Forum:2017-18 South Pacific cyclone season

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98P.INVEST
Say hello to (likely) the first invest of the SPac season. Low chance on JTWC, but not yet being mentioned at all on the RSMC Nadi outlook. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:14, December 3, 2017 (UTC)

No longer on JTWC but still on Tropical Tidbits/NRL. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:54, December 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * No longer on Tropical Tidbits/NRL. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:42, December 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 02F (91P.INVEST)
New weak low near Samoa. Development is possible until Wednesday, when it encounters less favorable environmental conditions. ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  04:04, December 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Will it become the first storm of the season, Fehi? Stay tuned. Hi!-68.106.0.77 08:02, December 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * This disturbance shouldn't become Fehi. It's down to "low" chance for Tuesday according to RSMC Nadi, and won't develop beyond that day. ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  06:23, December 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's pretty much dead now. ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  06:36, December 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 03F
Adjacent to 02F. Has a "moderate" chance of development for Tuesday, but downgrades to "low" after that (RSMC Nadi). Meanwhile, this is quoted from TCWC Wellington:

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC FRI 22-DEC-2017

Many other lows may form within the SPCZ, and the UK shows one low developing to the north of Fiji by early Friday and deepening to TC intensity from late Friday onwards, while moving to the southeast. UK shows this development under a diffluent region, ahead of an upper cut-off low/trough, and strengthening ridge aloft. EC shows the low slightly southwards under strong shear. EC ensemble shows 20-30% chance of TC development to the west of Fiji. Based on the difference between models, the chance of TC development to the north of Fiji from Friday onwards is LOW to MODERATE.

SPac is starting to ramp up. Can we see Fehi by Christmas? ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  06:23, December 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Actually, this has moved into high shear. Extremely unlikely to become anything. ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  06:36, December 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's dead ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  23:39, December 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 04F
North of Vanuatu, but hasn't been declared yet as of the time I wrote this. Low chance in the long run, but overall doubtful that it will be Fehi. ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  23:39, December 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F
30 mph/998 mbar. Fehi anyone? JoeBillyBob

Tropical Disturbance 04F (2nd time)
Actually Fehi is out of the question. Latest RSMC Nadi outlook downgrades it back to a disturbance, with a "low" chance for Christmas and beyond that it's "very low". ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  06:25, December 24, 2017 (UTC)

Still active, but pressure is now 1002 mbars. It won't develop anymore.~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  21:25, December 26, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: West-Southwest of Southern Cooks
RSMC Nadi has a low pressure system up to the west-southwest of the Southern Cook Islands. They give it a "low" chance throughout the next 3 days. Doubtful if this will become much however. ~  Steve 🎉   2018  is here!  🎆  06:41, January 3, 2018 (UTC)

No longer mentioned. ~  Steve 🎉   2018  is here!  🎆  06:55, January 5, 2018 (UTC)

General deadness
Something wrong with this basin this season? Even 2016-17 and 2011-12 had more disturbances by mid-January, and those were the two least active SPac TC seasons on record. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:30, January 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 05F
Up as an invest, and code orange on JTWC. Hopefully this finally becomes the first named storm of this season. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:48, January 26, 2018 (UTC)

Actually,this is still inport moresby's area of responsibility.JoeBillyBob (talk) 16:49, January 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * No it's not. None of Port Moresby's area of responsibility is located in the SPac basin, and this is in the SPac basin, not Aus. T  G  2 0 1 8 17:04, January 27, 2018 (UTC)

Hmm... I wonder if this is actually 94P, up as code red on JTWC way out near French Polynesia? Wikipedia claims that the system below (06F) is actually 05F, but we all know Wiki is not official (RSMC Nadi is). ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:04, January 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Actually, Wiki now shows this as a short-lived disturbance in the same region that Fehi developed in. I wonder if RSMC Nadi changed the storm's designation? I'd be surprised if this was actually completely separate from Fehi, because Wiki says this lasted from the 26th to the 27th which is at the same time Fehi might have been starting to develop in that area. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * I'm very confused too. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:40, January 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * The track map for Fehi is uploaded on Wikipedia, and it seemed to originate in or near TCWC Port Moresby's area of responsibility before moving into this basin, while 05F was short-lived northwest of New Caledonia. This says that Fehi was in the same region (south of Solomon Islands, aka northwest of New Caledonia) on January 27, at the same time that "05F" was active in the same exact region. It's all probably the same system, unless 05F was another brief short-lived system that instantly merged with the developing Fehi due to extreme proximity. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:37, February 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 06F
RSMC Nadi seems to have this system, located west of Vanuatu, up as Tropical Disturbance 06F, not 05F. However, Wikipedia says this is 05F. Since RSMC Nadi is official, I might as well put up the header... So much confusion. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:04, January 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Someone has already edited the Wikipedia page. This is a different system from 05F. 06F may become Fehi soon; it's already a TS on the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:00, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Fehi
It has been named, first of the year! Not expected to intensify much though, and if anything, it will likely just weaken from here on out before restrengthening as an extratropical system. I would be surprised if 05F was actually completely separate from Fehi (see my comment in 05F's section for the reason why, and 05F's track map and duration on Wikipedia). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fehi
a weak failica.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:45, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

94P.INVEST
I mentioned this system in 05F's section, but this was an unusual system near French Polynesia that had a TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC)

95P.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits and NRL as a system southwest of Tonga. It's doubtful if this will develop though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:14, January 29, 2018 (UTC)

Now code yellow on JTWC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:47, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

Dead...No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:37, February 1, 2018 (UTC)

97P.INVEST
Another one, located west of Vanuatu and south of the Solomon Islands. Currently only found on Tropical Tidbits and NRL for the time being. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:26, February 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07F
Now over Vanuatu, and has been designated "07F". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:41, February 3, 2018 (UTC) Now has a "Moderate to High" chance for friday.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:46, February 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Currently located northwest of Fiji. This is likely to become Gita. Code orange on JTWC, and a "High" chance for Friday and Saturday. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:13, February 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Gita
Yay!No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is expected to become a cat 2 by JTWC as it heads south, but then west and moves over some islands south of Fiji. Ryan1000 23:32, February 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 08F (98P.INVEST)
Currently over Fiji. It has been designated "08F". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:41, February 3, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08F
Upgraded to a tropical depression. Currently located southeast of Fiji and southeast of the above system. This is unlikely to develop further though. Code yellow on JTWC, and RSMC Nadi is also unenthusiastic about it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:13, February 8, 2018 (UTC) Up to code orange on JTWC,and has a "low" chance on RSMC Nadi.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:19, February 9, 2018 (UTC)