Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave
Just entered the basin, we could see development in a week's time from now. Models aren't very enthusiastic but MJO is still sitting around. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  01:44, May 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * MJO's been gone for a bit. It's in the WPAC/CPAC I though. YE Pacific Hurricane  02:36, May 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/40%. YE Pacific Hurricane  00:04, May 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think we'll see Boris from this in about a few days! Here it comes, future-Boris and the epic Amanda are just the beginnings of what appears to be a very active season. This season's going to be a wild ride for sure now!  Steve  820  ✉   00:16, May 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Let's be calm here. This could be bad. Models bring it into Mexico. It is gonna be a large system that is moving slowly. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:45, May 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/50%. Could be invest'd soon. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:33, May 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, it could be. The guys in Mexico should keep their eyes out for future Boris. I have a feeling we might see a destructive Mexican storm from this invest. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:55, May 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/70 now. It's getting there. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:47, May 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Winds are currently at 25 MPH leeboy100 (talk) 17:28, May 31, 2014 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invest'd. But we don't know for sure how many knts it is due to the ATCF blackout. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:52, May 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now at 40%/70%. Most of the models take it northward towards either southern Mexico or even Guatemala. At best I could see this becoming a minimal hurricane like Barbara from last year before impacting them, nothing stronger. It will more likely be a TS when it gets there though. Ryan1000 21:22, May 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * 25/1009 per ATCF. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * This system might help the Atlantic to get Arthur,as some models are showing a similar situation with Alma and Arthur of 2008.Allanjeffs 22:23, May 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * 60/80 now. Other than southerly shear, things look good. GOT storms tend to spin up rapidly. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:27, June 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * That's not good, especially if it remains offshore long enough. Amanda was nice because it remained well away from land, but this is forecast to make landfall in southern Mexico/Guatemala. Hopefully it doens't get too strong before its landfall. Ryan1000 01:23, June 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * This invest (Future-Boris) could be a destructive storm for Mexico. I feel bad for those guys in Mexico. Hopefully it won't get too strong, but they still need to get prepared for this thing. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:09, June 1, 2014 (UTC)




 * Uh oh, this is not good. I spy a developing cirulation and increasingly favorable conditions. A tropical depression could easily form in the next couple of days. Chance of formation: 70% for the next two days and 90% for the next five days. Western Central America and southern Mexico are getting flooded. Allan, how are you doing? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:36, June 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * A depression could come anytime today from this invest. Not good for southern Mexico, they're getting flooded from this thing. Hopefully Allan is safe. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:34, June 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Lol I am doing good.My graduation is in June 13 and I am going to study physics. That is a reason I have not been here much is because I had been studying and preparing things for prom and the trip we are going to make with my classmates.How are you doing Andrew? Steven? Lol steven why are you worried? I live in La Ceiba Honduras this invest will not affect me at all. tbh we are desperate for rain in here. Many crops are dying and with the almost el niño in here which bring drought to us the outlook doesn't look better.Allanjeffs 16:40, June 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * On the subject of precipitation, the GFS is putting a lot of emphasis on a plume of moisture that extends from the position of 93E towards the northeast into Cuba and southern Florida. Ensembles pointing towards a precip. maxima in Guatemala.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:18, June 1, 2014 (UTC)

Jeez, this thing's been at high chance for a while...just become Boris already. Now 90% for the next 2-5 days. Ryan1000 17:58, June 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E

 * Its here and expected to become Boris and leave torrential rains in Mexico.Allanjeffs 20:48, June 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not likely to move much. A lot of uncertainty though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:58, June 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's not moving very fast, and won't make landfall until Saturday according to the current forecast. It's only forecast to peak at 50 mph, but Amanda was also initially only forecast to peak as a TS, and look what it did in the end...the GoT has some of the warmest waters in the western hemisphere (the Gulf of California has the warmest), and wind shear is a very light 5-10 knots over the storm. Hopefully it doesn't RI over the next few days...Ryan1000 23:01, June 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think this will be named "Boris" tonight or Tuesday morning. I can't believe they're forecasting a very slow motion, I feel bad for southern Mexico. Hope this isn't a re-Agatha. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:07, June 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * ..THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE

NEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. That mean less time over water as it was expected to make landfall on Saturday.Allanjeffs 06:06, June 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * That's better news intensity-wise, but still not sure with regards to it's potential for flash floods and mudslides. Ryan1000 11:35, June 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 30 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:01, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Boris
Its here and expected to not strength. Might get to 45mph before all is done.Allanjeffs 19:08, June 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nearing landfall. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:25, June 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like it'll peak as a very weak TS, but it's certainly not a fail because it's causing loads of rain and possibly destruction to southern Mexico/Guatemala. Hopefully the guys over there are safe and prepared for this thing. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:54, June 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * It has already caused 5 deaths in Guatemala so its not a fail.Allanjeffs 00:01, June 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Go Boriszzzz!!!!!!!!!11 71.187.130.182 00:08, June 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * 71, stop it. Tropical cyclones are powerful forces of nature and while they're incredible to watch out to sea, the ones that affect people we have to be serious about. We shouldn't be cheering for storms like Boris that could possibly kill hundreds of people. It's immature and not what these forums are supposed to be about. Anyways, looks like it's making landfall tomorrow morning, it won't get much stronger than it is now, but heavy rain and floods/mudslides will still be a threat. Ryan1000 02:37, June 4, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Boris
Down to a TD, still causing heavy rains, and forecast to die tomorrow. Ryan1000 12:32, June 4, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Boris
NHC issued their last advisory on Boris and it's dead. Flash floods/mudslides will remain a big threat over southern Mexico though, and combined with the Bay of Campeche invest could make it even worse. Hopefully we won't end up with a 50+ deaths toll once it's all done, I think this is a much weaker and tamer version of Manuel and Ingrid back in September 2013. And 71, it was very immature to say that because this storm has potential to caused hundreds to rest in peace. We gotta take storms like this seriously, and in fact, I heard you could be banned from this wiki if you cheer on a storm that could kill hundreds or thousands. That's just very impolite, especially for the victims of the devastating storm. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:03, June 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Updated the header since it formed in June. In the NHC's EPac summary for May, Amanda set a record for making May 2014 the most active month in May in terms of ACE, eclipsing the former record set in 2001 by Adolph. Ryan1000 23:50, June 5, 2014 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
News invest; at 10/40. The GFS isn't too optimistic, showing a midgrade tropical storm. However, the ECMWF and HWRF make this a 973mb and 970mb hurricane, respectively. I would not dismiss the HWRF after Amanda so quickly. I think we could see a hurricane out of this as shear is suppose to decrease to 0 accoridng to the SHIPS. The SHIPS and LGEM make this our second hurricane of the season. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:38, June 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think it'll become Cristina since it's got favorable enough conditions ahead. Hopefully we'll see a hurricane out of this, <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:51, June 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * HWRF has a lot of intensity forecasting problems, but after Amanda, I guess anything in EPac could surprise us. This may be only 20% for two days, but it's 60% for the next five, and conditions are more than favorable enough in front of it for it to become the season's second hurricane, maybe even second major if it blows up fast enough. Ryan1000 21:56, June 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * HWRF does, but so far this season, it's been doing well. Not to mention the GFS is now on board with Euro/HWRF and bombing this out. CMC shows a solid TS. Really the GFDL is the only unaggressive one due to strong shear. Still, it's gonna be over warm waters for like a week. Gonna be fun; a major is possible, but not certain. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:15, June 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't doubt this to become Cristina even a hurricane is possible. The problem with this is the  dry air that might surround it. Dry is a killer no matter if shear is perfect or water temeperatures if there is dry air it will be tough for it to strength.Allanjeffs 22:30, June 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, I still root for this invest to become a major (remember Amanda's stunt?). The dry air shouldn't inhibit it too much. Future-Cristina will probably be a hurricane, but there's a slight chance at major status too if it strengthens rapidly. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:53, June 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Allan, your wrong here. Dry air can not enter the storm's LLC if there is no shear, which they won't in 5 days. And it's got a large circulation, which could help fight dray air (which is quite common in the EPAC) Even then most of the dry air was fileted by Amanda. Anyhow, this is up to 40/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:59, June 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Environmental conditions are improving significantly for Invest 94E. I predict a weak hurricane from this system. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:05, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) Where are the intensity betting charts? That was pretty fun last year, maybe we should create another one here on this Wiki. Anyway it's currently 25/1007, wobbled to the N a bit during the last hours. Believe it or not, I think a tropical depression could form 09Z, and I'm rooting on NHC to raise this to 80/90 next TWO. My guess is that it should peak around 80/979 (kts). - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:09, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Haven't made such a thing yet on this wiki, but I suppose we could use one for this year. I'm expecting a major hurricane at best, and a minimal hurricane at least. Looks quite a bit better now, I wouldn't be surprised if we're gonna end up talking about Christina later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 02:35, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * HS is talking about something that isn't related to HWiki, it kinda is to WPTC. I disagree though that's it gonna get classified soon, remember the LLC is still on the north side of the deep convection. I'd give it 6o/90 personally, but the NHC kept it at 40/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:01, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * I still believe this will be at most a cat 1.I really doubt a major is going to come from this.Allanjeffs 14:29, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * At most, I think this will be a cat 2. I'm starting to doubt a major out of this, but at least Cristina could be something fun to track hopefully. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:06, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Why all the negativity? Are you guys checking what I say at other forums? :P It's still 40/80 and looks okay. Yes, models have backed off somewhat, and it probably won't become a major hurricane. A Cat 1 or a TS is still possible SST's are fairly warm, shear is suppose to relax, I see a little dry air affecting this system slightly, but it mostly lies around 20N. The reason why models backed off is that it is moving more quicker, and a little more to the NW. Sometimes the models have an equatorword bias (paralytically the Euro), and they bust. This is what happened in 2013, and the same reason why almost all the storm were weak. But remember, its only June, which in 1st year El Nino's aren't suppose to the be most active month. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:33, June 8, 2014 (UTC)

Up to 50/80. Though I'd go with 30/60 to be honest. Model support is even less now, and it looks ugly. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:49, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like I spoke too soon. Looks much better now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:01, June 9, 2014 (UTC)

94E starting to balloon in convection and expanse, continues to organize this morning. Now 60/90 according to the NHC.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:31, June 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now 90/90, should become TD 3-E anytime now, and Cristina shortly after. Ryan1000 19:24, June 9, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-E
TD. 70 knt peak. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:44, June 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Sounds reasonable. I expect it to peak a little higher than that before the dry air gets to it, but either way, it'll be heading away from land. Ryan1000 22:48, June 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't understand why NHC was so conservative on the TWO probabilities, but here we are with Cristina around the corner. Don't know what you guys think but personally I could see a hurricane by tomorrow 15Z or 21Z, or in fact even 09Z, a lot sooner than NHC predicted. I think it could peak around 979/80 up to 956/105 (kts). - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:01, June 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * The storm is in highly conducive conditions but as the NHC said earlier in the discussion Three-E will not be able to intensify at a quicker pace if the mid-level and low-level centers are indeed displaced and elongated. We saw with Hurricane Ernesto in 2012 how impressive satellite presentation coinciding with a storm decoupled internally only leads to the storm falling apart, at least temporarily. We shall see how quickly these centers become affixed over one another for Three-E to take off.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:19, June 9, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cristina
1004/35. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:51, June 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * I doubt it'll be a hurricane by 9z or even 15z. Conditions aren't that good. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:25, June 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yay, Cristina has formed! I still think it'll be a Category 2 but now I'm going a bit more towards the strong Cat 1 side (85-90 mph). It should be fun to track, but if it pulls of an Amanda I'll be very shocked. Environmental conditions aren't favorable for any extreme intensification, unlike Amanda, who literally drank a full bottle of caffeine after being presented with very favorable conditions. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:13, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * I say this one at most will be a cat 1 but with 80mph. Might be a ts if it doesn't strength rapidly.Allanjeffs 13:28, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow I'm missing out on the season, I've been busy (again). I didn't even know Boris already came and went. Anyways wunderground says this could become a hurricane tomorrow   and winds are currently at 45 MPH.  leeboy100 (talk) 17:12, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * I mean on Thursday, sorry I looked at it wrong  leeboy100 (talk) 17:14, June 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * No one seems to update the active storms I guess... :/ Well anyways, this should be a hurricane in a day or two, but I don't expect this to Amanda-out and become a very strong major. Cat 2 or minimal cat 3 is the best I can see coming from Cristina. Ryan1000 21:06, June 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think it could become a hurricane in 2 advisories (09Z). I see no reason other than time constraint for it not to strengthen, intensity could reach MH but mostly likely in the 2~3 range. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:02, June 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope it becomes a hurricane by tomorrow! Environmental conditions are favorable enough, so hopefully we'll see a hurricane out of this soon. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:02, June 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Agreed with HS that it could be a cane by 9z. ATCF brings it up to 55 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:53, June 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Adv birngs it up to 55 knts. Lots of lighting noted, which is a strong indicator of RI. I think this could be a hurricane tomorrow morning. In order for RI to happen, dry air needs to decrease and CDO needs to become better organized. If that happens it could bomb out IMO. Dry air entering the E side now. CDO looks weird, but it could be Cristina's way of keeping it out. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:01, June 11, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Cristina
Cat 1, now 75 mph, 990 mbar, forecast to peak at cat 2. Ryan1000 10:46, June 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * It has strengthened to 80 mph (70 kts) and 986 mbars, a peak of 85 knots (100 mph) is predicted by the NHC before weakening. Looks like we might see a Cat. 2 out of this, but there's still an outside shot of C3 if it strengthens rapidly. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:29, June 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Cat 2 now, 85 kt/975 mbar. It'd be really cool if we could have two majors less than a month into the season... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:41, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * If Cristina becomes our second major by later today or tomorrow, it would be the earliest 2nd major hurricane of any EPac season on record, beating 2010's Darby by two weeks. It's not going to be a major for very long though, if it does become one. Ryan1000 03:24, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Stupid Carlotta not being 100 knts. Otherwise, we'd be breaking Carlotta's record. But Cristina is stunning. Probs why the EPAC is so awesome. And I can tell this only the begging. I think this will be a major. Also of note, Cristina is tied for the 2nd earliest 3rd storm, behind Agatha 92, and tied with Carlos 85. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:40, June 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * I do not count Agatha because in there you are counting Ekeka and Hali I believed and they were in the central pacific not in the Epac. Anyways Cristina is looking amazing she is beautiful its rapidly approaching major hurricane status if its not one already. Anyways If Cristina becomes a major we would have more majors that last year.Expect and active Epac as a moderate El Niño is developing.I see this season more like 2009Allanjeffs 06:02, June 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * ADT est. 110kts, probably a major next advisory. Eye completely cleared out. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  07:18, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * The CPAC is a subset for the EPAc, for the billionth time. 12:32, June 12, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Cristina
...CRISTINA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE... Currently 120 mph, 960 mbar. Beats Darby of 2010 for earliest 2nd major on record by 13 days. Has another day or so until it'll begin weakening. Might even become a minimal cat 4. Ryan1000 11:50, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Go check the new adv intensity everyone. It is 125 knts. No joke!!!! HOLY SHIT!!!!!! The EPAC does it again!! 2 EI storms and it's mid-June. Wow. This so makes up for the 1 major in 2013. HOLY CRAP!!!!! YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:33, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Cristina is about to become a cat 5 in this pace if its not one already. Amazing this year will be fantastc for the Epac.Allanjeffs 13:46, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * It isn't a Cat 5 IMO. ATCF kept it at 125 knts for 12z. Still got some work to do if it wants to make it to a 5. Amazing nevertheless. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:48, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * 150 Mph...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  15:23, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Holy cow!!!! I thought I might wake up to a major, but not a strong Category 4! C'mon Cristina, work your way up to Category 5 and pick up where Amanda left off! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:43, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Oh, and Cristina is the earliest second Cat 4 on record for the EPAC, beating Elida '84's record by 19 days. Almost 3 weeks!! This is incredible. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:45, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * 6.9 / 928.2mb/137.4kt; cat5? - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  16:04, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow, how incredible. I thought it might have had a shot at 135 mph earlier today, but 150? God damn. It's now just 5 mph and 3 mbars behind Amanda. It might even have a shot at cat 5 briefly before it winds down, which would become the second earliest cat 5 ever, only 6 (or 7, if tomorrow) days after Ava in 1973. Dylan, one more notable fact is that since Elida in 1984 reached cat 4 on July 1st, this year is the first season ever with two category 4's recorded in the EPac before July. Best part is, they're both fishspinners. Keep it coming, Cristina! Ryan1000 19:24, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Weakened slightly. EDIT: Still could reach category 5 after ERC, forecasted to reach 130kt again. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:15, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Is it actually ERC'ing? AFAIK no. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:23, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * If Cristina is undergoing an ERC then hopefully it rebounds nicely. Anyway, a fun little piece of trivia: this is first Cristina to reach hurricane strength since the name debuted 30 years ago, and Cristina '84 only made it to Category 2, making Cristina '14 the strongest incarnation by a wide margin. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:14, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * WOAH!!!! This is absolutely insane!! I never expected you to pull an Amanda on us! This EPac season is already starting to get really crazy, my gosh! Looks like it won't become a Category 5 though, it's already undergoing an ERC and environmental conditions could start getting more unfavorable afterwards. A Category 5 might come sooner than I thought, probably in July or August! I bet you Raymond last year was just a little preview of things to come in 2014, the EPac is really recovering after a 2013 filled with weak storms and C1 hurricanes! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:42, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's not ERCing IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:59, June 12, 2014 (UTC)

Eh...Cristina is winding down from here on out YE, I'm afraid from here on out we'll be saying good-bye to Cristina. It had it's chance at cat 5, but it seems like it missed it, just like Amanda. But it's still an amazing storm to track nonetheless. Ryan1000 22:42, June 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * YE, it's not having an ERC right now, and I never said it was. However, it could very well undergo ERC soon. There are already concentric eyewalls and conditions are still favorable for strengthening. Also, I would hesitate to say good-bye to Cristina. I personally see it restrengthening again. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:24, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sorry HS then. I think it will restrengthen given conditions are overall very good tomorrow, but won't IMO make it to 130 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:01, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's continuing to wind down, now 120 mph...you sure about that HS? Well, I know Cristina will be around for a few more days, but I'd rule out Cristina bouncing back up to cat 4 again. Ryan1000 03:29, June 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * I doubt it will re-strength. Its now down and will continue until death. Allanjeffs 04:05, June 13, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Cristina (2nd time)
Still on its way down, now a Category 2 with 90 kt winds and a pressure of 971 mbar. I should mention that according to Eric Blake's Twitter (@EricBlake12), before this year, we had never had two 150 mph storms before September. This year, we pulled it off BEFORE JULY. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:32, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * He's kinda wrong. Emilia/Gilma 94 were Cat 5's well before September 1994. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:14, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * That's a good point, plus John was a Category 5 before September that year as well. He might have been referring to the EPAC proper, since Emilia, Gilma, and John all peaked in the CPAC. That being said, Emilia didn't peak until over a month from today, so we're still ahead of 1994 in that regard. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:24, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * BTW, the new advisory has just been issued, and it looks like you were wrong, YE; the forecast discussion says that Cristina seems to be finishing up an ERC. It's kind of a bummer that an ERC had to stop Cristina's strengthening trend like a brick wall after it shot up 25 kts in 6 hours; I'll fashion a guess that we otherwise probably would've gotten our first Category 5 in four years out of this storm. But hey, this is Mother Nature we're talking about, and there's nothing we can really do about it except hope that we finally get a Category 5 later this year (as long as it's away from land, of course!) Anyway, Cristina's still weakening, but at a slower rate than before. 85 kt/973 mbar now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:41, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * I also hope we get a Cat. 5 this year, it'll be incredible to watch the first C5 in the EPac since Celia in 2010 (if it's away from land of course)! Anyway, Cristina was an epic storm, wish it would've become a Category 5 but instead that ERC had to stop its strengthening trend. Bye, Cristina! You were awesome to track! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:24, June 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * The ERC of Cristina is nearing completion. The hurricane still has a short window to reintensify before meeting unfavorable conditions. A trough will soon pick up Cristina and cause its acceleration. For now, its intensity is at 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h)/978 mbar (hPa; 28.88 inHg) per the NHC and 85 knots (100 mph) per the JTWC, gusting to 105 knots (120 mph). As a general comment about the EPAC, I am very impressed overall with what the basin has given us. As a matter of fact, our ACE (29.2975 units) is already more than all of 1977's! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:09, June 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * "Therefore, it is unlikely that Cristina will recover much after the eyewall replacement, and continued steady weakening is expected during the entire forecast period" Wow, this is unfortunate that Cristina will probably be on its way out. The ERC is almost done and there is a brief opportunity for to maintain its intensity. I still think it could strengthen more, but not near to its former intensity (maybe category 2/3). Strong hurricanes like these that don't directly impact land are always interesting to track. This year will be surely full of surprises. EDIT: Looks slightly better right now, and based on microwave imagery it has lost all of its rainbands. If its eye were to clear out, it could resemble that of an annular hurricane. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:29, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * NHC says it might be able to hang on for another day or so until it powers down even further, since conditions are still favorable. It has a slight chance to rebound up to cat 2 again, but otherwise, from here on out, Cristina will slowly die away. Ryan1000 01:47, June 14, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cristina (2nd time)
The ERC sealed the deal for Cristina. Convective organization has very quickly degraded, and the LLCC is near an elongated convective band. Based on CI numbers, the NHC has downgraded the storm's intensity to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h)/990 mbar (hPa; 29.24 inHg). Gale force winds extend 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Swells will continue to pose a threat for Mexico in the coming day. Through rapid weakening inducted by vertical shear and cold SST's, Cristina should be nothing but a forgotten memory within 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:44, June 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * It looks like you beat me to it. :P Anyways, so much for the storm rebounding, it looks to be weakening for good now! Bye Cristina, you were an incredible storm! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:09, June 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * It might hang on for 3 more days or so until dissipating, but dang, that was incredible to watch. Looks like the EPac has pulled a lot of RI surprises on us lately. I wouldn't be surprised if we see more later in the season. Ryan1000 19:42, June 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * I did some research and it turns out Cristina is the northernmost hurricane this early in the year (06-14) in the EPac proper outside of Boris 1990 and a 1958 storm. Damn is the SST warm for this time of the year - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:44, June 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Convection is all but devoid in Cristina. Many of the models forecast a northwestward turn out to sea. A small cold upper-low has induced shear with the storm, prompting a potential brief re-intensification of the system. Nevertheless, it should not be long before Cristina is dead. Current intensity: 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). Also, our ACE value as of 0300 UTC June 15 is 31.2825 units, the record high for this time of year and the second highest pre-July EPAC ACE value after only 2010 (at least I think so) ... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:30, June 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Pre-July 1984 had the former record before 2010, though I'm not sure if the ACE that year is lower than this year at this point. I guess we'll have to wait and see what NHC says in two weeks. Hagbis in WPac is in the same boat as Cristina, it's being sheared apart as it nears China and it probably won't do too much. Ryan1000 12:55, June 15, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Cristina
Depressionized and on its way out. 30 kts, 1004 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:00, June 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, Cristina and Amanda did help to produce very incredible ACE for this time of year! The EPac must be really recovering after a 2013 filled with weaklings and C1 hurricanes. Farewell, Cristina, it was nice tracking you! We'll get more epic storms once the middle of the season (August-September) arrives and hopefully we get our first Category 5 since Celia! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:45, June 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Bye. Keep up the good work EPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:01, June 15, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina
Adios amiga, thanks for the entertainment! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:05, June 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Opened into a trough. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  19:41, June 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * And...it's gone. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:22, June 19, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Monsoon trough
Currently off Nicaragua, tailing 94E. Could see a scenario akin to Boris-Cristina 2008. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:09, June 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * It would be pretty impressive to see that this early in the season, though I think it'll be weaker than 94E (Christina) will be. Ryan1000 02:35, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here comes Douglas! I think this could peak as a strong TS (around 60 mph) if it develops. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:08, June 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * This has no model support. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:49, June 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Agree I doubt this will develop.Unless that the MJO helps it but I really doubt it.Allanjeffs 03:55, June 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * It is pretty much stationary over Costa Rica for the time being. I think it could develop but not anytime this week. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:03, June 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like I was being way too optimistic about this :P. I don't think it'll develop until later in the week, but the tropical waves that HurricaneSpin posted about below might also have potential to be our "Douglas" storm along with this AOI. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:17, June 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * This will be amplified by a tropical wave (below section) later tomorrow. A disturbance could develop from the combined system. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:58, June 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * And this combination could result in a named storm by next week. Let's just sit and watch as future-Douglas unfolds. :D <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:04, June 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Highly doubt it. It has no model support. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:21, June 11, 2014 (UTC)

Currently just southwest of GoT, merged with tropical wave. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:30, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * A new non-monsoonal trough developed off of this. South of Baja tip. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:34, June 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * A surface low developed off of this. Extremely unlikely but Erick 07 type storm may form from this. GFS hints some brief closed circulation developing but then again, it's GFS. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:25, June 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Interesting, one of those neat looking lows that develop in this area. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:32, June 21, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave
I think tracking tropical wave progression is rather interesting, if this becomes messy I can get rid of it. Currently there is a huge train of tropical waves and potential contenders for cyclogenesis. The dates on the right side of the title indicates their date of exiting Africa based off of OPC and TWD products. Currently over 70W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:14, June 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Crossing into EPac. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:59, June 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Energy from this will likely contribute to the next cyclone. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:58, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it merged with the monsoon trough, could see development some distance west, or could just end up dissipating. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:38, June 13, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 4/5)
Currently over 51W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:14, June 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Over Panama. Euro develops this and so does the CMC. GFS does not, but it's acting drunk as of late. This could be Douglas. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:59, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, one of these waves could develop into Douglas in the long run. This wave looks particularly interesting though, due to model support by the Euro and CMC, as YE mentioned above. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:14, June 14, 2014 (UTC)

Now into the EPac proper. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:50, June 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/30%. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:57, June 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Could have two systems next week with this and the wave after it. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:22, June 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here comes Douglas...man, the EPac is really going on a hot streak right now. Although it's El Niño, It's been a while since I've seen one kick off this rapidly. If this pulls the same stunt Amanda and Cristina did, we'll have 3 cat 4 hurricanes before July, a record for EPac, let alone 3 majors. Ryan1000 00:38, June 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * This wave is rather disorganized right now. Maybe give it some time for development. It does have plenty of warm SST's for growth, but I am not holding my breath for another major just yet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:33, June 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's still 10% (30%). I think this could become Douglas later this week, and the future-Douglas storm seems to have a minimal hurricane potential. However I root for it to become our third C4 hurricane before July. >:) <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:18, June 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * I did some research and saw that, since geostationary satellite observation began in 1966, the earliest date for an EPAC season's third Category 4 is July 17, 1992, when Frank reached that intensity. In addition, the earliest date for an EPAC season's third hurricane to reach winds of at least 130 kts is August 22, set by John '94; in addition, Olivia became the fourth 130-kt storm of that year on September 25. We've got a full month to beat 1992 for the earliest third Category 4, and even more time to beat the two aforementioned 1994 records, but as 2010 demonstrated, what happens in June does not indicate how the rest of the season will go. For all we know, we could rival that year's record-dead activity once June is over (though that would really, really suck). We'll just have to wait and see, and hope that the stories of Amanda and Cristina repeat themselves (minus the few deaths caused by the former). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:24, June 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Development of the wave is being supported by the European model, which develops a tropical depression by Saturday. I see no reason we can not beat the 130 knot records of 1994, given 2014 is going even faster than other El Ninos such as 2006 and 2002. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:40, June 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * The tropical wave has become slightly less organized. Chances of development for the next 48 hours have fallen to near 0%. However, development should tag along later this week. The NHC gives a 30% chance of development in the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:36, June 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * I still think it might develop, though not in the next couple days of course. We might see a Douglas out of this by Saturday or early next week. Hopefully it'll be something fun to track, and I predict this invest could strengthen to a Category 1 or a C2 hurricane in the long run. I sure see potential inside this invest but any significant development won't happen until Thursday/Friday at least. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:52, June 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, this may not form. It's part of the ITCZ, but model support is there. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:30, June 18, 2014 (UTC) 05:04, June 18, 2014 (UTC)

(←)The wave has gotten less organized, and I no longer expect any development. Chances of formation have fallen to 20% in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:47, June 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't expect any development out of this anymore, too. Oh well maybe Douglas might have to come later hopefully before the end of June. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:46, June 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * NHC dropped this at the 0z TWO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:30, June 18, 2014 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Invested, I think a TC could form tomorrow, or tonight. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:53, June 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower and thunderstorm activity has reappeared in the AOI enough that it is back on the NHC TWO. However, conditions will get less favorable for the invest as it moves northward. Chances of formation in the next 48 and 120 hours: 20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:50, June 20, 2014 (UTC)\


 * Well, this invest looks a lot more organized on satellite imagery! I will not be surprised if we get a tropical depression later tonight. However, dry air in the northwestern quadrant may inhibit significant development of the system. Nevertheless, the chances of developing for the next two and five days are now at 50%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:04, June 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * I think regardless of development this could have impact on land, likely to Baja Peninsula and around GoC. Also, the TWO numbers aren't very accurate indicators for development. NHC is way to conservative with formation and tend to rely on guidance models. There is currently an upper anticyclone helping 95E's divergence and judging from past systems, convection could organize rapidly. I agree with you on its main inhibitor, which is dry air. I think if 95E wants to form, it'll have to do it soon before dry air gets entrained into its core. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:07, June 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * I think it'll become a depression tonight and be named Douglas by tomorrow but dry air will limit development. I predict only a weak TS (40-50 mph) out of this. But wow, it surprised me to see this AOI re-organize especially since I thought it was possibly done for good after originally dropping off the TWO a couple days ago. Looks like I was wrong and it still had potential after all! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:34, June 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * I believe it will develop tomorrow in a td and become Douglas in the afternoon or night and die sunday night or early monday. I don't expect  a hurricane out of this.Allanjeffs 02:23, June 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds are beginning to suffocate Invest 95E to its death. It only has a 20% chance of developing in the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, June 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's down to 10% (48 hours and 5 days). Oh well, it had potential, but it looks like the upper-level winds are completely destroying and torturing this poor little invest. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:02, June 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Back up to 30%. I still doubt it'll develop though. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:56, June 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * And...it dropped off the TWO. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:30, June 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sorry guys, I was on vacation over the past week. Looks like this didn't develop, so I didn't miss too much, and NHC doesn't expect much over the next few days. Wasn't too surprised, and I have doubts that we will beat the early cat 4/5 records set by 1992 and 1994. Not impossible we could do it, but those years were record-setters and we'd need a crazy amount of activity in the next month to beat them. On a side note, if the Atlantic doesn't have a named storm in the next week, it'll be the first time in ten years that a storm (of any intensity) didn't form in the Atlantic in June or earlier, there has never been such a streak of early-season storms before. 2005 had Arlene and Bret, 2006 had Alberto, 2007 had Andrea and Barry, 2008 had Arthur, 2009 had TD 1, 2010 had Alex, 2011 had Arlene, 2012 had Alberto, Beryl, Chris, and Debby, and 2013 had Andrea and Barry. The last time an Atlantic season didn't begin in June or earlier was 2004, when Alex came at the end of July. Ryan1000 22:30, June 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Welcome back, there is still a decent chance that we might derail some of the records set in 1992/1994. GFS currently shows a train of storms from this week onwards, and activity should recommence with MJO returning to this side of the world. As for the Atlantic, there's not much I can say. GoM and west Atlantic should stay quiet for a while as the Azores High drops pretty deep into tropical latitudes. This means the tropical waves should bypass the Caribbean Sea, which would make the main development belt inactive. On a side note, this low is opening into a trough SSW of Cabo. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:09, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * From Baja Insider"That Low that brought showers to the tip of the peninsula is hanging out just to the southwest of Cabo San Lucas as it slowly dissipates. Temps will be seasonal across the peninsula as our updated SST graphics show that our portion of the Eastern Pacific is as much as 3°C/6°F above normal for this time of year. The long range forecasts indicate that we will develop a westward flow to thunderstorms from the mainland. Humidity will rise and afternoon and evening thunderstorms will become possible early next week along the eastern seaboard of Baja. " Looks like you're right on the money. Regarding the ATL, there is actually some potential for stuff of the SE coast per the ECMWF/GFS. 12z GFS only shows 2 storms though; 2 closed isobars=TC, not 1. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:33, June 25, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave
Currently over 32W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:14, June 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Over 60W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:36, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Just off Panama. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:14, June 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Within Pacific waters. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:32, June 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Dissipated. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  19:44, June 18, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave
Over 44W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:36, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Over 72W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:56, June 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Over Panama, lots of lightning within 120nm of this wave. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  19:45, June 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Over Guatemaula. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:26, June 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Absorbed by 95E. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:47, June 23, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 12)
Over 23W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:36, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * 38W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:57, June 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS develops this by early July. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:38, June 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is the one we have to watch. GFS brings this to hurricane status. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:01, June 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not only this but the tropical wave preceding it as well, when that wave emerge off Mexico we could see a rise in activity. Also MJO is propagating towards the CPac right now, and later into the EPac. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:26, June 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * Noted on TWO, Douglas likely to form by late this week into the weekend. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:51, June 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, we'll probably see Douglas out of this by Friday. Hopefully we'll see another explosively intensifying storm that'll pull an Amanda or Cristina on us, even though I really doubt that'll happen simply because it's a bit too early to forecast this thing. But, who knows what could happen with this storm? <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:34, June 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * No models are aggressive with it. It should form, and maybe affect land. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:24, June 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * As soon as I say that, models get aggressive and show this becoming a hurricane, and in some cases, a major. Some blast this into Jalisco, while tohers blast this machine into Cabo San Lucas or San Carlos. 12z GFS is very aggressive with this. 0/60 per the 5 day TWO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane
 * This tropical wave is in a interesting position right now. It is actually inland Mexico and should split into two, one in the BoC and one south of Mexico. Conditions should be very favorable ahead. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:13, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Inland MX? I thought it is just south of the GOT. Is it on here, or is it near the BOC? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:29, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * To be precise, the wave axis is inland MX. Convection is most likely temporary and judging by satellite imagery you can identify the inverted V indicator of a wave axis. The low level cloud movements (yellow) indicates where the surface low will form. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:04, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * This might get interesting. I hope that the wave splits and the southern portion develops into Douglas and the northern portion becomes Arthur in the BoC, even though I kinda doubt that'll happen. As for this AOI it might become another major hurricane and another epic storm to track, though I'll try not to root for it since it might affect Mexico but I still expect it to get strong! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:03, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * It could become a major. 18z GFS was much less aggressive though. We'll see what the next TWO says. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:35, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's been stuck at 10/60 for like a day. GFS super aggressive with this, showing doomsday after doomsday run after run. Sometimes I think the model is in fantasy land, and that we all have high hopes (see also: Rosa 12). YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:05, June 27, 2014 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Up to 40/80 and invest'd. GFS has shifted west back time and is now on par with the rest of the guidance, though it still has as a slight threat to Baja California Sur and bringing rains to CA in 11days. IMO it has an very very very very favorable environment, shear never goes above 12kt and RH never drops below 70%, and STS remain 29-30C through day 5 per the SHIPS. SHIPS brings it to 99 knts, GFS takes it to 968 mbar, and LGEM brings it to 74 knts. I can't wait to see what HWRF says. As it is moving WNW to NW parallel to the coast, yet another major is possible. Yes, another. 3 majors before July 15? Possible IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:19, June 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * This one looks real nice. I'd expect it to become Douglas by early next week, and I also expect it to become a major as well. Like Cristina and Amanda, it'll be out to sea, but if this becomes a cat 4, it'll probably be the earliest date for the season's 3rd category 4 (1992 holds the current record, with Frank becoming a 4 on July 17, this, if it explodes, will probably reach it on the 3rd/4th or so). Let's cross our fingers... Ryan1000 20:45, June 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * This invest is rather disorganized for now. However, development in the next few days is certainly possible, given the favorable conditions ahead of it. I predict a strong tropical storm at minimum from this system. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, June 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Very complex situation here. GFS now shows two systems one from this and another from the system behind it. Both could threaten Baja. 96E could be strong. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:21, June 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:25, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict it'll become Douglas tomorrow. It's in amazing conditions and I wouldn't be surprised if future-Douglas became the 3rd major before July 15! This and the below AOI are ones to watch for development, this Pacific season is really going to be very active, unlike the struggling Atlantic! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:25, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * 60/80. GFS showing really complex shit and a interaction between this and the below systems. It looks like the other one is gonna be dominant. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:38, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I still think it'll become Douglas though. It's in favorable conditions along with the other AOI, but my prediction is that this AOI will become dominant over the below AOI. Who knows what could happen? I predict this invest will strengthen to a powerful (potentially major) Douglas and the AOI that's behind it will strengthen to a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane before this becomes dominant. Or it might be the other way around. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Agree this will be the dominant system of the two.Allanjeffs 19:00, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
Here we go! The NHC has determined enough convective organization is present to designate this cyclone Tropical Depression Four-E. Its current intensity is 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). The depression is forecast to accelerate under the influence of a guiding trough, but interaction with Invest 97E behind it may be a key factor in its movement. Intensitywise, its large size will prevent any major intensification, despite a favorable large-scale environment. The NHC forecast is slightly less aggressive than some forecast models, predicting a 50 knot (60 mph) tropical storm. Say hello to our D name! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:39, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because organization has seldom improved in the invest, the NHC has maintained Tropical Depression Four-E's intensity. As it nears a very strong ridge, it should begin to accelerate over the next few days. Low vertical wind shear, warm SST's, and a moist environment should favor additional intensification of the system. Due to the nature of Four-E, it should not get much stronger than 55 knots (65 mph) in the next three days, as the NHC expects. Dry air and cool SST's should prompt weakening afterwards. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:24, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't expect it to get too strong either, it has a slight chance of pulling off a quick stint of intensification to become a hurricane, but I wouldn't count on it. And 97E behind it won't become much, 4-E might even absorb it completely. Ryan1000 12:26, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * This thing won't intensify much since it's moving fast. I would not rule out a hurricane though. 97E won't be absorbed by 4E since 97E is moving slower than 4E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:54, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's still a depression on its 4th advisory. Come on! You're presented with favorable conditions yet you still can't strengthen! Must be its large size, its fast movement, or its proximity to 97E that's causing it. But still, I wouldn't rule out a hurricane due to the relatively favorable conditions. I predict this depression will peak as a 75 mph Hurricane Douglas. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:44, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * No, it's not a TD anymore. It was revised in the ATCF to make it a TS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:49, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I never check ATCF though :P, but hopefully the NHC declares it a tropical storm soon. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:55, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * 18z ATCF brings revises both 12z and 18z to 30 knts. Wtf. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:56, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Tropical Depression Four-E's cloud pattern has not become better organized at all, and convection is actually decreasing. TAFB and SAB estimates are at 2.5 and 2.0, not influencing any intensity changes per the NHC. Due to its proximity to a strong subtropical ridge, the depression should continue to accelerate until a mid- to upper-level shortwave moves into California, prompting a slow westward movement. Despite low shear and warm SST's, Four-E's large size and poor organization will prompt only gradual intensification, with dry air taking over in a couple of days. The forecast NHC peak has been lowered to 50 knots (60 mph). Steve and Ryan, I would be really hesitant to believe this depression will become a hurricane, given its unfortunate setbacks. The JTWC reports the same windspeed measures with gusts of 40 knots (45 mph), and expects a similar peak intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:27, June 29, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 16-17)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:57, June 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS shows this in the long-range. It could be Elida. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:30, June 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nevermind. This should just go by and many form in the CPHC AOR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:16, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * NVm, 10/20. GFS shows this developing and interacting with 96E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:22, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict we'll see Elida from this by next week. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:27, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/30. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:39, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
This tropical wave has been designated Invest 97E, per Wunderground. Despite currently having disorganized showers and thunderstorms, I believe there could be a window for development as it moves west-northwestwards. Its chances for formation are currently at 30% for the next two days and 50% for the next five. The computer models are very split over this system. BAMM and BAMS steer it near Mexico, while BAMD, LBAR, CLIP, and IVCN show it getting dragged by Tropical Depression Four-E. My personal forecast for Invest 97E is a 35 to 40 knot (40 to 45 mph) weak tropical storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:45, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * No offense, but those models you mentioned are absolute garbage models, none of them are global and they are simple trajectory models based on parabolas. BAMM uses just 850 hPa to 400 hPa layers as guidance (which only accounts lower-mid level steering). I think this has a lot more potential than 4E as most models bring it close to land. A weakness in the ridge will form next week, and this could recurve and explode. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:29, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Agreed with HS. The BAMM family of models are 70s technology, they are shit. CLIPER is better, but not great, but with re-curving storms it's bad. Still, outflow from 4E should hinder development for now. Just like how Henriette 13 was hindered at first since it was close to Gil. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:28, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's still at 30% (50%) and still has a chance to become Elida. Proximity to 4-E may inhibit development though. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:46, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has become more concentrated and organized in Invest 97E, but as Steve said, proximity to Four-E may hinder any development. Afterwards, conditions should be gradually favorable for some development. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, June 29, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:46, June 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS shows this becoming Elida in the long range. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:15, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Just off Nicaragua. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:33, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AS IT HAS MERGED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE E-SE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:05, June 29, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 23)
New wave off Africa, now 48W - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:32, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 26)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:31, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * All - 0%

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

I agree with Dylan. It's way too early for this section, but I'm still gonna post mine anyways:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 16:17, June 14, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's mine (because I want to get a head start (Sorry, Dylan)): (i'll remove the underline when we're further in the season)
 * Amanda: 0%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land.
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- currently active
 * leeboy100 (talk) 17:21, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)