User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center/West Pacific/Ma-on/1

BULLETIN TYPHOON MA-ON ADVISORY NUMBER  1 CYCLONE WARNING CENTER WP062011 100 PM JST THU JUL 14 2011 ...FIRST DAY OF CWC OPERATIONS...

SUMMARY OF 100 PM JST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION -- LOCATION...20.2N 146.7E ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM NNE OF SAIPAN NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ABOUT 1150 MI...1850 KM SE OF TOKYO JAPAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H GUSTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 HPA...29.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TYPHOON WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS FROM PARALON DE PAJAROS TO ASUNCION A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS FROM AGRIHAN TO PAGAN

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS FROM AGRIHAN TO PAGAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... THE JAPANESE VOLCANO ISLANDS FROM IWO TO TO MINAMI IWO JIMA

INTERESTS IN THE RYUKYU ISLANDS, KYUSHU, SHIKOKU AND SOUTHERN HONSHU SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MA-ON.

PROGNOSIS
FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS, THE INNER CORE OF MA-ON SEEMED TO BE OPEN... REVEALING SOME INTRUSION. HOWEVER... THE LAST FEW VISUAL IMAGES OF MA-ON SEEM IT INDICATE THAT ITS INNER CORE IS STRENGTHENING. THE LATEST DVORAK NUMBERS FROM SSD ARE 4.8/84 KNOTS FOR RSMC TOKYO AND 4.6/79.6 KNOTS FOR THE JTWC. UW-CIMMS ADT NUMBERS ARE 4.7/82 KNOTS. WHILE THESE INDICATE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM... RECENT IMAGERY HAS INDICATED SLIGHT STRENGTHENING, THEREFORE I HAVE PLACED THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR MA-ON IS SLIGHTLY DIFFICULT. THE INNER STRUCTURE OF MA-ON IS IMPROVING, BUT BECAUSE OF A LACK OF MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE TYPHOON, IT IS UNKNOWN IF THE EYE IS COMPLETELY CLOSED. ASSUMING THAT IT IS, MA-ON SHOULD START TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY... EVEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRAVERSES THROUGH WATERS ABOVE 30C. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR INTENSITY IS BELOW THE JTWC BY 24 HOURS, BUT IS ON PAR WITH IT THROUGH DAY 4, BUT IS ABOVE IT ON DAY 5.

UNFORTUNATELY, BECAUSE OF TIME CONSTRAINTS, THE CWC WILL BE UNABLE TO PRECISELY GIVE FORECASTS ABOUT THE DIRECTION OF THE STORM. HOWEVER, I BELIEVE BY DAY 3, THE STORM WILL BE FURTHER WEST THAN BOTH THE JTWC AND JMA INDICATE. BY DAY 5, I BELIEVE THAT IT WOULD BE VERY CLOSE OR JUST WEST OF 130E LONGITUDE... VERY CLOSE TO THE RYUKYU ISLANDS AND KYUSHU.

INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL 85 KT 12H 95 KT  24H 105 KT 36H 120 KT  48H 140 KT 72H 145 KT 96H 125 KT 120H 105 KT

FORECASTER DARREN23