Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
Another one near 90S.-- Cy10 -- 01:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

Gone.-- Cy10 -- 20:21, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

13S.HILWA
TCFA.-- Cy10 -- 02:07, February 14, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical storm 13S
Now a tropical storm by JTWC, though it hasn't been named Hilwa yet. Probrably will be later today. Ryan1000 10:36, February 14, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10
Now a TD. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:30, February 14, 2012 (UTC)

Well it is now getting less organized as we speak and it has attained peak intensity. Maybe the JTWC were wrong to take it up to C2? &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:43, February 14, 2012 (UTC)

May intensify later I would not take it out so fast as it may intensify later.Allanjeffs 23:57, February 14, 2012 (UTC)

Some significant change in the forecast. Was meant to weaken into a disturbance and stay that for the whole existence, however, it is now expected to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm, then weaken back into a tropical depression, then strengthen back into a tropical storm with 40 kt. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 11:24, February 15, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10
And La Reunion have returned to the previous forecast, and only peaked at 30 kt. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:09, February 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10 (2nd time)
And we have a TD again, looks like this thing will be going on an intensity roller coaster. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 10:56, February 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10 (2nd time)
Yes it is..-- Cy10 -- 02:07, February 19, 2012 (UTC)

At one point, TD 10 was forecast to be a hurricane, and now it doesn't look like we'll get anything at all, not at this rate, at least. Fixed the header BTW (it was suposed to be size 4). Ryan1000 05:10, February 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10 (3rd time)
Now forecast to become a MTS. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:32, February 20, 2012 (UTC)

At least we reach the H letter with this system how many more letter could we have. we will seeAllanjeffs 21:48, February 20, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa
Now named. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:23, February 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Finally.-- Cy10 -- 17:24, February 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * It won't do much, but it formed, at least. Ryan1000 18:00, February 20, 2012 (UTC)

Extratropical Depression Ex-Hilwa
In and out.-- Cy10 -- 01:41, February 23, 2012 (UTC)

Still a depression so it ain't out yet. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:38, February 23, 2012 (UTC)\

Remnants of Hilwa
Now gone.-- Cy10 -- 13:15, February 24, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Eastern area of AoR
RSMC saying this low will develop into a tropical depression (I'm sure a tropical storm). &mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:37, February 21, 2012 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
Invested! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:37, February 24, 2012 (UTC)

TCFA alert.-- Cy10 -- 06:03, February 26, 2012 (UTC)

Gone.&mdash; Cy10 E-Mail  04:02, February 29, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: North of the Mascareignes islands
RSMC saying this low will develop into a tropical depression (I'm sure a tropical cyclone). Have a look here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:37, February 21, 2012 (UTC)

If that is true we will have two tropical cyclones in this basin next week if that is true we will have Irina and Joni with us.Allanjeffs 00:09, February 22, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like this one has the potential to become Irina or even Joni. Which ever low develops into a named storm first. By the way, if we get to Joni, we'd probably slow a bit down in activity in March. This season will most likely get to the K or L storm, if more show up. 173.169.56.34 01:01, February 22, 2012 (UTC)

By the time it makes landfall, the system will just stay there because of the mountains. The GFS forecasting over 350 mm of rain to fall over central Madagascar. However, a few days later it begins to move into the Mozambique Channel and strengthens quite a bit. It'll then make landfall as a tropical cyclone on Mozambique. Of course this is subject to change. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:26, February 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * At worst, this storm could be a re-Hudah and cause signifigant destruction in both Madagascar and Mozambique, but there is also a chance it could not develop past category 1 or 2. It's very large though, so rainfall could be a problem for the folks in Madagascar and Mozambique from this storm. They're still reeling from Giovanna's destruction, but I don't think this storm (future Irina) will be as strong as Giovanna when it does impact Madagascar. Ryan1000 14:41, February 22, 2012 (UTC)

ECMWF ensemble System and Most of the available deterministic NWP models suggest that 2 lows may form at the end of the week within the ITCZ; one to the North-East of the Mascareignes islands and the other one over the far east of our area of responsibility.

ITCZ outlook from RSMC La Reunion. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 17:01, February 22, 2012 (UTC)

90S.INVEST
Now invested! Getting exciting! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:07, February 23, 2012 (UTC)

I think it's fair to say we will get something out of this now, but I can't really tell how strong it will get. Ryan1000 21:11, February 23, 2012 (UTC)

I think this will become a severe tropical storm. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  20:36, February 25, 2012 (UTC)

The models really like this one. They explode it in the next few days and keep it out to sea. The only areas that may need to keep an eye on this are Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 22:53, February 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 12
Only meant to strengthen into a MTS just now... &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:24, February 29, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12
Oh well... our hopes of it becoming a ITC are very slim now.. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:32, February 29, 2012 (UTC)

I would expect cat 2 or cat 3 at most, but yeah, we aren't seeing a cat 4 or stronger storm from this one now. It most likely missed it's chance. Ryan1000 14:08, February 29, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe but the only thing we can expect from the tropics is the unexpect it so we never can be sure of things.Allanjeffs 01:42, March 1, 2012 (UTC)

Although it may not become strong, there actually is a (small) chance this storm could head south of Mauritius and Reunion and hit southern Madagascar as a cat 1, though it would otherwise stay out to sea. However, GFS sees a monster storm coming from behind this disturbance in the next 3-4 days and smashing apart Mauritius and Reunion. That's not a good vision. Ryan1000 14:47, March 1, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 12 (2nd time)
Back down... in 24 hrs, it should be back up &mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:06, March 1, 2012 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather 12
Well, I can tell you this will not become a C1 &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:33, March 2, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 12
Ah well. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:05, March 4, 2012 (UTC)

AoI: East of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Models really liking this one, as well as BoM. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:34, March 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low 15U
Should be Koji and Joni. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:24, March 7, 2012 (UTC)

This is strenghtening could peak at cat 2 or 3 if it has luck it will reach cat 4.Allanjeffs 00:56, March 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Koji
Now named Koji.&mdash; Cy10 E-Mail  02:40, March 8, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Koji-Joni
Now named Joni by RSMC Reunion. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:50, March 8, 2012 (UTC)

Like the two name it have it really has a shot to become a cat 3.Allanjeffs 17:31, March 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think this will probrably be the last time a storm will be given a hyphenated two-name. At the start of the 2011-12 season, the WMO stated this would be the last year when a storm would reccieve two names crossing from the Australian region to the SWIO. Starting in 2012-13, storms will keep their names when crossing from the Australian region to the SWIO. Still, since this will probrably be the last time we'll see this, we might as well cherish it while it lasts. Ryan1000 18:08, March 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pretty cool to see a hyphenated name. Like Ryan said, it's likely to be one of the last to receive one. Also, it's looking pretty nice atm. Yqt1001 00:40, March 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'd be surprised if it doesn't at least become a C1, even though it likely will remain at sea. Ryan1000 03:01, March 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is a fun event! Following a two-name storm. I think Joni will have a C3 peak intensity. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  03:48, March 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * It'll probrably be a pretty strong storm, but at least it won't affect land. It's expected to turn farther south by this Sunday and Monday, so it better get on with it if it wants to become a major cyclone. Ryan1000 09:16, March 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's starting to power down now, per the latest data from RSMC Reunion, so I think it's time we started saying goodbye to Koji-Joni. It will certainly be a storm i'll never forget. Ryan1000 14:20, March 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Really??? I thought that you weren`t excited on this one.My bad.Allanjeffs 16:14, March 11, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Koji-Joni
Whoot! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:31, March 11, 2012 (UTC)

Nailed it. I knew it would power down sooner or later. It won't come anywhere near land and it very well could be the last two-name storm i'll ever see. Ryan1000 22:22, March 11, 2012 (UTC)

Extratropical Depression Koji-Joni
Now extratropical.&mdash; Cy10 E-Mail  11:26, March 12, 2012 (UTC)

AoI: Over Brisbane
A disturbance by SAB, currently T1.5. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:39, March 4, 2012 (UTC)

94P.INVEST
Now invested... quite surprised with this since thunderstorm activity is decreasing. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:28, March 5, 2012 (UTC)




 * I'm shocked that the system wasn't upgraded to at least tropical storm status earlier; it was looking rather impressive on satellite. Supportstorm 23:11, March 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * It still has potential.Allanjeffs 01:57, March 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * How is that > not a tropical storm? I agree, Supportstorm, this should have, if briefly, been upgraded to Koji yesterday. For one reason or another, BOM decided it wasn't worth the trouble since it was going to fall apart soon after that. I strongly believe this was at least briefly a depression, if not Koji. Heed my words, this storm is gonna get upgraded in post-season, to some extent, assuming it won't develop now. Ryan1000 18:30, March 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well it is still producing gales (that is why we have gale warnings on it). Anyway, I have created a track for the system using NRL data here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:05, March 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gone.&mdash; Cy10 E-Mail  20:25, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

AoI: South-southwest of Bali
BoM liking this one, so they have gone with high chance. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:22, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

95S.INVEST
Now an invest.&mdash; Cy10 E-Mail  21:01, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

Probably will be Daphne if I am correct.Allanjeffs 01:40, March 10, 2012 (UTC)

Nope. That's 96P.&mdash; Cy10 E-Mail  02:04, March 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Lua
Well this one sprung up on us, only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but Western Australia should watch out nevertheless. Ryan1000 13:42, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

Expected to peak as a 75 kt C3 cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:06, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

So now Lua It will probably one of the last of the season we can have fun while it is alive even though I am sorry that it will make landfall and bring heavy rains over Australia they need to keep an eye on her.Allanjeffs 19:16, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

For your comment beow Ryan I think Lua has possibillity to become an intense cyclone I usually like cycones that explode but Because it looks like it will be making landfall in Australia am not cheering for her maybe Mitchell if we have him will be a different story.Allanjeffs 03:48, March 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * 17U won't develop; it's inland now. Allan, regarding Lua, it's forecast to only become a 90-100 mph cyclone at it's peak (a C3 on the Australian scale, per what Kiewii said above)^ That could still be destructive, but I don't think it will bomb out to a cat 3 or 4 on SSHS. Still, the folks near Broome, maybe Port Headland, should watch out for this pesky little sh!t. I don't like the looks of this thing. Ryan1000 13:44, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Well actually it is now expected to peak as a 90 kt C4 cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:30, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Lua looks a bit like Cyclone George of 2007 in terms of it's current forecast track and (potential) peak strength, but it formed in a different area. It may pose a threat as severe as George or Laurence, but this will be no Yasi or Tracy. Still, the folks in Western Australia better keep their eye out for this thing. Ryan1000 20:14, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

I knew that she was going to intensify into a big system they better be prepare the folks in Australia.Allanjeffs 20:45, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, this one looks a lot like George. It will probrably make landfall at Port Headland (well, now it's called South Headland), by this Friday or Saturday. I would not expect anyone to die though; even Cyclone Yasi, Australia's costliest cyclone ever, didn't kil anyone directly in it's path. I don't expect anyone to perish after this storm either, assuming everyone heeds the evacuation orders. Ryan1000 23:38, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

That depends Ryan because even Yasi that was strong didn`t kill a lot of people look Grant it was weaker and kill more so Lua could still be very nasty.Allanjeffs 00:07, March 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * Lua looks great on satellite. -- &mdash; Cy10 00:52, March 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * In case anyone's wondering, with Lua, the 2011-12 AUS season is now just over halfway to average (7 tropical cyclones). It'll be interesting to see what she'll do to Australia. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:42, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

BoM have issued a cyclone warning for Mardle up to Bldyadanga as Lua is expected to make landfall as a C3 cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:23, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

I agree people don't take weak storms as seriously as they do strong ones (which was why Washi ended up so bad). However, since Lua will be a large, threatening storm, I would expect the deaths from Lua (if any) to be indirect. I think the folks in WA will take this one pretty seriously. Grant was a slower-moving, more persistent storm, so flooding was a big concern with him, leading to the loss of life. Yasi was Australia's Katrina in terms of damage, but coastal storm surge was the top threat from Yasi, not inland flooding like it is with slower, weaker storms. Regarding the track, Lua seems to be heading more to the east of Port Headland, so the folks in Pardoo could get the eyewall from this cyclone. That's not good. By the time it makes landfall, it might only be a cat 1 (on SSHS), but still, it could cause some pretty extensive damages. Ryan1000 20:17, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua
Now a severe tropical cyclone. -- Cy10  01:47, March 16, 2012 (UTC)

Now a C4. -- Cy10  23:11, March 16, 2012 (UTC)

she is becoming very dangerous and if you see tropical low 17 that is actually inland looks like a tropical storm.Allanjeffs 00:22, March 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low 17U
We'll be lucky to get a named storm out of this one.&mdash; Cy10 00:45, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Hm? Why put two signatures? Anyways, this storm, if it becomes Mitchell (which i'm not expecting), we'd be a tad above average. Lua probrably might become a C1 or 2 at most (on SSHS). Ryan1000 01:59, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

They better not waste another name like they did with Fina. Allanjeffs 03:45, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

It is now inland, so will not develop into a tropical cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:32, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10F
And another one...-- Cy10 -- 13:11, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Its not a depression. RSMC Nadi's TDS' supersede the 3-day outlook. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:31, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah its a disturbance not a depression.Allanjeffs 21:03, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Exactly Allan, as 10F's final advisory has just been issued. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10F
Now its a depression. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:29, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Although the advisory says 25 kts, the gale warning says 35 kts for 10F. This is exactly what happened with 04F too. So this means 04F should have been Cyril and 10F should be Daphne. (Not likely to happen anyways). &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:08, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

And after they reach td status they start weakening right away. Allanjeffs 17:00, February 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gone.-- Cy10 -- 20:51, February 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 11F
New one here, most likely to be dumped in the bin soon. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Like all of the past disturbances of this year. Allanjeffs 23:25, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11F
Potential for this depression to become a tropical cyclone is low. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

96P.INVEST
Now 96P. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:45, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Cyril
And its the first homegrown tropical cyclone of the season. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:43, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Finally a name storm in this Basin btw Cyril is a male name or female? Allanjeffs 20:39, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Cyril is a male name Allan. Being the latest first storm in the SPac on record, at best, this basin will get to 3-4 storms in total from now on out, excluding Jasmine. Even so, Cyril is only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but based on the looks of this tiny little storm, I wouldn't be surprised if Cyril could explode up to cat 1 or 2 strength before dying out. Ryan1000 22:15, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

So we got Cyril after all. Still, I don't see much coming from him. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

It's heading out to sea. Cyril is probably a fish.-- Cy10 -- 23:20, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Probable will only peak as a weak moderate tropical storm.Allanjeffs 23:56, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It has reached C2 strengh. Now it should be weakening.-- Cy10 -- 13:17, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Down to a C1 and has moved into TCWC Wellington's AoR. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-TC Cyril
Extratropicale &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:37, February 8, 2012 (UTC)

Down and out.Allanjeffs 20:36, February 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13F
And who thinks this will become Daphne? &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:34, February 14, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe. Depends on how conditions will turn out. 173.169.56.34 21:55, February 14, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t think so.Allanjeffs 21:43, February 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It's not gonna develop, it's being sheared up now. BTW, the Hall of Fame elections are taking place. If you want to vote on your picks from Eric's list of 2012's hall of famers, or make new suggestions for 2012, go there. Ryan1000 23:44, February 15, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 13F
Gone.-- Cy10 -- 17:59, February 18, 2012 (UTC)

INVEST
Not sure where to put this, but it is in the south Pacific atm, off the coast of South America. 1011 mbar. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 11:57, February 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">There never has been a storm recorded in the South Pacific east of 180 degrees west longitude before, and if this one, or if any one, does form in the future, it is unclear how it will be handled. We might as well leave it like this for now. Most of the coast of South America looks clear to me, but I do see one area of disturbed weather that is taking on some tropical charicteristics southwest of Ecuador. No storm has ever been recorded there before. This is a bit bizzare. Ryan1000 23:15, February 16, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well the disturbance is located near 10S, and the NHC monitors east of 120W and from 0 degrees to 18.5S. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:46, February 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * They can monitor it, but my main point was, this still isn't an actual tropical cyclone basin here, like the South Atlantic and Mediterannean. I would be rather baffled if this invest becomes a TS, but if that happens, it will probrably be left as an unnamed storm. It could develop, but I won't count on it now. It lost itself a bit on the latest pic, but it's not gone yet. Ryan1000 00:48, February 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * I don`t really think it will form ,but if a miracle occurs and form it will be unnamed I think.Allanjeffs 01:01, February 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * How unusual! I didn't think we'd be talking about a Southeastern Pacific invest! Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:36, February 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * You were a little late andrew.Allanjeffs 02:45, February 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, its been gone for quite a while now. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:28, February 21, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: SPAC: <span style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-style: normal; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">-- Cy10 <span style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; font-style: normal; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; "> 02:02, March 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?
 * Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts.
 * Iggy - <5% - Probably not.
 * Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count.
 * Koji - Negative 10% - No.
 * Lua - ?
 * Cyril - 0% - No.

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?
 * 3) Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad.
 * 4) Iggy - 10% - No.
 * 5) Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area.
 * 6) Koji - 0% - No way!
 * 7) Lua - TBA - Still Active


 * 1) Cyril - 0% - No impact.

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)

Time for mine.


 * 1) Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail
 * 2) Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season
 * 3) Heidi: 5% - Meh
 * 4) Iggy: 3%
 * 5) Jasmine: 15% - Caused record breaking flooding in NSW and QLD

&mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:34, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

My turn

AUS


 * 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ?


 * 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going.
 * 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him.
 * 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names.
 * 5 Jasmine:3% great intensity and big waves to some islands she definitely is not going
 * 6 Koji 1% What does this do??? nothing you are staying
 * 7 Lua???
 * SPAC
 * Cyril 1% did nothing this was the only storm of this season what a shame it looks like it will be a record for this basin like it was record for the NIO last year.
 * Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Might as well:

Australia: South Pacific:
 * Fina - 0% - Nope.
 * Grant - 23% - Australia has a common track record, but I still don't think Grant should be retired, especially in comparison to what they've seen in the past.
 * Heidi - 11% - Wasn't like Grant.
 * Iggy - 4% - Damage, if any, wasn't that bad for Australia.
 * Jasmine - 5% - Most of the damage was small, despite it's immense strength.
 * Koji - 0% - No impact in the Australian region, and even it's second SWIO name probrably won't do anything either.
 * Lua - ?? - It looks threatening, but I won't predict it's future; something could always change before landfall.
 * Cyril - 0% - Fishie.

Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)