Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season

The Hall of Fame returns
Earlier today I promoted TG and Steve to new administrators and No. 1 Mobile to a rollback on Hurricane Wiki per the votes they received on the community vote page. Although he wasn't promoted, I talked with Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) on revitalizing Eric (SkyFury's) Hurricane Hall of Fame, which was started many years ago, but wasn't gone that far into and Eric hasn't posted since the end of the 2012 AHS forum, and he's probably retired by now. But with many more notable storms since Eric's (presumed) retirement, I'd like to start it up again and continue his legacy with inducting more storms into the Hall of Fame. Currently he has a record of storms from the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific, and hasn't gone into the other basins, but with many more users on the wiki since last year's historic AHS, I think we can get a good pool of voters for the hall of fame this year and in coming years. What do you guys think? Ryan1000 23:05, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

July
Since it's officially July now by UTC, I've archived the pre-season and June stuff and begun this section. Doesn't look like we're getting anything soon here though. EPac is probably the only basin to watch right now, and some minor activity in the WPac too. Ryan1000 00:17, July 1, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Florida Panhandle
I know this would not be anything but I still want to include this AOI since it currently appears in the Atlantic 2-day and 5-day TWOs. 10/10 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:52, July 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * The wait for Beryl continues... again...  Send Help Please (talk) 00:25, July 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to near 0/near 0. This won't develop, ever. The below system may have a slight chance in the long run though. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:02, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * And died. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 17:44, July 3, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Between Bermuda and Florida
Up on the 5 day outlook at 0/20. A non-tropical system is expected to form here by the end of the week and it could acquire some tropical characteristics afterwards. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:02, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * At least we're getting AOIs even if they aren't doing much right now. Better yet this one is nowhere near land. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:36, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hopefully this can develop into something for this month. If it fails at developing, we will probably see both a dead June and July for the first time since 2009. I'd give this a low chance of developing, just for the fact that this system doesn't really have much time before it hits cold waters. GFS is only developing what seems to be a 30 mph tropical depression, moving off to the northeast before becoming extratropical the next day, so I wouldn't expect Beryl out of this one. T  G  2 0 1 8 13:11, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/30. Also the MDR, while still cold, is warming up the past few days. Just to note that. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 17:44, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/50. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 23:14, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * This would be a name-stealer if it develops. I really want the name "Beryl" to finally go to a hurricane this year, so I kinda hope this only peaks as a TD. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:16, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 40/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:06, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still 40/60 as of latest STWO. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 21:32, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to 40/50 per latest advisory. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 23:58, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I am starting to believe that this will go bust, or just become a potential tropical cyclone (PTC). 95L is almost certain to become Beryl. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:04, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * I believe both systems could become TDs, although 95L looks more likely at the moment. This one has until Sunday to develop. At least one of these systems will probably steal the name "Beryl", and at most we could be talking about "Chris" out of the one that is named last. The last thing I want is two epic failure name stealers. I hope these systems either peak as a TD or strengthen to at least 50 (or 60 if possible) mph. ~  Steve 🎆   Happy U.S.  Independence Day!  🇺🇸  02:35, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Invested. Down to 30/40, and starting to doubt development myself. If it does somehow organize and intensify by Sunday, it will be either TD 3 or a name stealing "Chris". ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:59, July 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Per the 8 PM TWO, chances have been upped to 40/50 and there has been a bit of a language change:
 * "The low could interact with a frontal system on Sunday..."
 * The change is a contrast to earlier outlooks in which it definitively said 96L would interact with the front. Ideally, Chris could be another this year that exceeds expectations but it remains to be seen. Owen 02:30, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Most recent GFS runs on tropical tidbits show this become a major hurricane getting steered into North Carolina now. This is a huge change in forecast. The European while not showing it affecting the states is now also showing this becoming a hurricane. --Whiplash (talk) 12:23, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * The chances of formation now increased further to 70/80. There is also no mention of that front on Sunday now. This is seeming more likely to form and get strong. ChowKam2002 (talk) 13:20, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

It's currently expected to stall near the Carolinas, but it could still turn out to sea later on, before making a landfall there. But anyhow, it looks as if we will have Chris from this storm. Ryan1000 13:55, July 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * This storm reminds me a lot of Arthur in 2014 which came up and smacked Atlantic Canada. Left my place without power for 3 days. Hopefully not a repeat of this... Little soon to tell though. --Whiplash (talk) 14:02, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Beryl is overshadowing 96L a bit right now, but I expect a designation of PTC3/TD3/Chris later today. Looking quite likely with increased model support that we will have our second hurricane in a row from this. Owen 15:28, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Cape Verde Islands
Another AOI, probably the first MDR AOI, currently at 20/20. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 23:14, July 3, 2018 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
This is labeled as Invest 95L on Tropical Tidbits, but tell me if I am mistaken. Nickcoro (talk) 23:19, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * You are not mistaken. In fact, this thing was invested and given AOI status almost simultaneously. ChowKam2002 (talk) 23:30, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I don't think its 95L, its probably 92L, no? From what I heard, it was a typo on TT -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 23:39, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I believe that both this and the AOI will be name stealers if they develop into tropical storms. So hopefully they don't.  Send Help Please (talk) 02:48, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I doubt this will develop, at least for now. It only has until the weekend to develop, but even then, conditions are only somewhat conducive until the weekend. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:18, July 4, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah this should be 92L, we've had 90L (Alberto) and 91L so far, if you check the archive. It has to be a typo on TropicalTidbits. Ryan1000 07:47, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * NESDIS has this as 95L too, and so does the Naval Research Laboratory. Strange. I haven't seen any reason anywhere why 92, 93, and 94 were skipped. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:04, July 4, 2018 (UTC)

While the EPac seems to cool down after Fabio, the Atlantic is slowly becoming active. 95L is currently at 30/30, the above AOI is currently 40/60. We may finally have Beryl and Chris from these two systems, but we can only hope as this season is eerily similar to previous inactive seasons. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:33, July 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * They must've made a mistake when labeling this. I've never seen the NHC accidentally skip over invest numbers before. Anyways, it's up to 30/30, but it's going to encounter unfavorable conditions when it reaches the antilles. I think the AOI near Bermuda has a better chance at being Beryl than this. Ryan1000 18:30, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * STWO released, and now up to 50/50. This has an outside shot of being Beryl (considering the other AOI doesn't steal the name) before reaching the Lesser Antilles, where there are unfavorable conditions. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 21:31, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70/70, and we may have Beryl. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 23:57, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * That was kinda fast. Anyway, I hope Beryl comes out of this, and I hope she won't be very destructive. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:05, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * What the- okay then, didn't see this coming. I think it'll still be a name stealer though, if it even gets beyond depression status. Send Help Please  (talk) 01:13, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not me either! I hope the name "Beryl" is not given to an epic failure disgrace, especially because I want it to be used for a hurricane for the first time. Unfortunately, it's very likely that either this or the above system will steal the name "Beryl" and peak as a weak TS, and at most we could get both Beryl and Chris out of these systems. I highly doubt this system will become respectively strong considering the upper-level winds that will strike by the weekend. Maybe there's still hope if the system finds another region of favorable conditions in the very long run beyond the upper-level wind spot, and redevelops in such a region. Anon 2.0, this should be a fishspinner and should not last beyond the weekend (unless another region of favorable conditions pops up). So I highly doubt this will be anything "destructive". ~  Steve 🎆   Happy U.S.  Independence Day!  🇺🇸  02:42, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, didn't expect this to jump up to 70% that fast. This mght become Beryl first by now, but it'll probably end up being like a few of the early-season storms we had last year, like Bret and Don. But unlike last year, I doubt this year will be an active season. Ryan1000 04:26, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
"Special Message from NHC issued 5 Jul 2018 14:11 UTC: NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST/EDT on Tropical Depression Two located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean." ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:23, July 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * (edit conflict) Ninja'd. Ryan1000 14:24, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

Forecast to peak at 40 mph and steal Beryl. But maybe it can pull off a slight strengthening stunt like Don last year. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:59, July 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's expected to die due to hostile shear near the lessers, though the remnants of it could produce some rainfall for the area by then, and if it only peaks as a minimal TS, it'll continue Beryl's streak of always being a tropical storm since the modern naming lists in 1979; Ana is the only other storm to never become a hurricane ever since 1979 in the Atlantic (although there was a Hurricane Ana in the CPac in 2014). Ryan1000 15:12, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Beryl
2:30 PM update statement says this is now TS Beryl. 40 mph/1007 mbars. This is also one of the easternmost storms on record in early July in the tropical Atlantic, along with two other "B" named storms (both named Bertha) in 1996 and 2008. Ryan1000 18:54, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * This means we got a name stealing epic failure troll storm on our hands... sighhh 😑 I guess our next shot at "Hurricane" Beryl is in 2024 (unless this storm somehow defies expectations and does a RI stunt). By the way, maybe "Ana" can finally become a hurricane in 2021. Hopefully. Probably the only "good" thing about this name stealer is it being one of the easternmost storms on record for this time of year. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:57, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

Don't lose all hope for Beryl; she's a tiny storm and the latest satelite imagery of Beryl shows what appears to be a tiny eye in the center of the storm...maybe there's an outside chance Beryl could become a strong but small hurricane in the open Atlantic like Danny '15, which unexpectedly RI'd to a major hurricane but dissipated when it reached the lessers. Ryan1000 19:03, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it does, and degenerates before reaching the Lessers. I would really like "Beryl" to finally be used for a hurricane this year. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

(Edit Conflict) I’m just surprised that this thing even became Beryl. Beryl has everything going against it right now. Beryl is also incredibly tiny. While tiny systems can be known to explode in strength, Beryl isn’t expected to do so, but it could, as there appears to be an eye on the satellite imagery. Leeboy100 Hello!! 19:12, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * You guys are right. Satellite estimates already have this at 45kt. ChowKam2002 (talk) 19:56, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Um... new advisory ups Beryl to 45 kts/1004 mbar, and... knock on wood... the intensity forecast has a 65-kt peak at 36 hours. I was horrified when I saw this had become named (I previously had hoped this would remain an unnamed depression; the intensity forecast at the time of formation only called for a peak of 35 kts, and every incarnation of Beryl to date has failed to become a hurricane [pending re-analysis of the 1982 and 2012 incarnations, of which I think at least one could possibly be upgraded to minimal hurricane strength]) but after looking at that forecast, I'm cautiously optimistic. Interestingly, the last forecast point before dissipation at 96 hrs has Beryl as a 50-kt TS. Now obviously Beryl could weaken from that intensity before dissipating, instead of going right from a moderate TS to an open wave... but I am reminded of Matthew's 50-kt birth in the tropics, except in reverse. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:36, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also, this is a bit off-topic, but speaking of re-analysis, Hurricanes Esther (1961) and Inez (1966) will most likely be upgraded from Category 4 to Category 5 status in the ongoing HURDAT re-analysis project, as per this video (approx. the 11:30 mark). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:45, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * I was as suprised to see this named "Beryl". I also thought this would be a fail and not be a hurricane as I wished Beryl would have, but like Dylan said, the NHC now forecasts a Hurricane Beryl. -- Roy 25  20:52, July 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * And Beryl is now predicted to become a hurricane. Hilarious. Watch it somehow explode into a Cat. 5 and then rapidly weaken before affecting the islands ;) . Nah, that’s not gonna happen. Me and my jokes. Leeboy100 Hello!! 21:01, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Small but deep burst of convection just blossomed along the north side of Beryl's core. Cloud tops colder than -70C and even approaching -80C. We'll see whether this is an anomaly, or a developmental turning point. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:38, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

Now at 65 mph as per ATCF.Intensifying fast...No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:03, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'd just like to mention that ATCF says Beryl formed as a TD at 18z on the 4th, and then became a TS 6 hours later. X) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:39, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, I started a nap while Typhoon Maria was a Cat. 1 and this was still an invest (or a depression), and I woke up to a Cat. 5 Maria and TS Beryl. I really do hope this storm becomes a hurricane as forecast.  Send Help Please (talk) 01:50, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * If Beryl intensifies 5 kt more before tomorrow afternoon, her intensification will qualify as RI. I expect adjustments at the NHC's 11 pm advisory, because at the rate she is going she may make a run as a reincarnated Danny - which could possibly alter the outlook of this season imo considering how far the MDR has come in the recent weeks. Not to mention that 96L has a chance to become Chris. I see 2004 as the best analog to this year, as I called for 13-15 TS/5-7 H/2-4 MH back in May and I still stand by the forecast. Trends seem to be pointing toward a Modoki El Nino, which wouldn't hinder conditions as much in the Atlantic as some may think. Owen 02:26, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

I'm not sure if we'll see 2004-level activity later in the season, though July is always too soon to tell. But anyways, as I said before, don't lose hope on Beryl just because she had a seemingly poor start, like what's been said many times before, small storms are more prone to RI (most recently Maria in the WPac being a cat 5 now), but are also more prone to weakening; Beryl in particular is exceptionally tiny for a MDR storm, with TS force winds going only 35 miles out from the center (Tracy '74 had TS winds only 30 miles out, for perspective). As for Beryl, the latest imagery of the storm still shows this storm being well-organized and there's a real possibility Beryl could be a hurricane soon, for the first time. Ryan1000 05:13, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Beryl
...TINY BERYL BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... Ladies and gentlemen, we have it. The first Hurricane Beryl on record. Leeboy100 Hello!! 09:00, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

You beat me by seconds hahaha. I was just trying to remember my password. Anyway record for the name Beryl that leaves Ana as the sore loser. Anyhow even though Beryl is expect to weaken models are showing her regeneration near the bahamas. The Gfs is also showing a cat 3 with the Aoi near the states. Doubt it will be that strong but you never know as Beryl as an example. AllanCalderini21 (talk) 09:04, July 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Congrats on finally becoming a hurricane after all these years, Beryl! Also, that's a rather high pressure for a hurricane, although it has been higher.  Send Help Please (talk) 09:23, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

Yasssssssss Beryl werk. In all seriousness though this is my favorite name on this year's list so I'm glad to see it being an interesting storm this year. :) --Whiplash (talk) 12:18, July 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also, for the record, with Beryl becoming a hurricane, this is, if I'm not mistaken, the smallest Atlantic hurricane on record, with hurricane force winds only 10 miles away from the center and TS force winds still only 35 miles out. NHC says that due to Beryl's small size there is greater than usual uncertainty in the intensity forecast from the storm, and she could pull a Danny before weakening as she approaches the Lessers. Ryan1000 12:53, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Leeboy's sarcastic prediction of a Category 5 Beryl might not be so unrealistic, lol. Well done, girl, well done! I love how Beryl's 6 previous incarnations all failed to reach hurricane strength, and then the lucky 7th took only a day to do so. Though I expect the TCR will determine Beryl to have formed sooner (as I mentioned above, ATCF says Beryl became a TS at midnight UTC yesterday, before advisories had even been initiated), its operational ACE as of the 5am advisory is still under 1 unit, even having already become a hurricane by then. (Using ATCF, Beryl's ACE reached 1.3325 upon becoming a hurricane, as opposed to a measly 0.9275 if one were to go by the operational advisories.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:22, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

...Aaaand just after you typed that, latest advisory is out and ups Beryl to 80 mph/994 mbars. Unfortunately, Beryl is now expected to peak at 100 mph and still be a hurricane when she reaches the lesser antilles...if this thing RI's to a major and manages to get through unfavorable conditions, we may have a potential retirement candidate on our hands. Ryan1000 14:38, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dear God, I hope Beryl spares the Antilles. They definitely took enough of a beating last year, and they definitely do not need another one. Also, Brazen Beryl is officially the new name for this storm, no questions.  Send Help Please (talk) 14:44, July 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * So we just had two forecasts claiming we would have only around 9 storms this season with 1 or 2 majors, and it looks like a few days later they already look like they are going to be wildly off the mark. We could literally have 2 majors by the end of next week in a worse case scenario. --Whiplash (talk) 14:56, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Hmmmm... and of course out of all the Lessers that could be directly under the center line of the new forecast track, it's Dominica. My feelings about this storm have gone from dread, to optimism, to joy, and back to dread again in the space of 24 hours. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:58, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

God damn...if this hits Dominica as a strong hurricane it'll be their 3rd severe hit in only 4 years. Erika flooded the island with heavy rains in 2015, Maria ripped Dominica into oblivion last year, and now Beryl could be at least a 100 mph hit on the island early next week...hopefully this thing spares Dominica or falls apart due to sudden unfavorable conditions near the islands, the last thing they need is another catastrophic hurricane after the two gigantic cat 5's that destroyed most of the antilles in last year's season. SHP, the NHC is actually calling this "Brazen Beryl" if you look at the header for the storm on their main page. Also (off-topic), but adios to Fabio. Ryan1000 15:08, July 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Not positive but once Beryl gets past the islands the GFS is showing a possible poleward outflow channel kicking in then. This could actually allow Beryl to strengthen further. But wait, this season was supposed to be a 9-4-1 bust? There's an outside possibility Beryl now reaches major hurricane strength and could be a long term threat to Florida. Owen 15:26, July 6, 2018 (UTC)