Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave Over Western Africa
This one is about to emerge from Africa into the Atlantic. It's at 0/20. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 18:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be Jose assuming 92L finally develops into Irma before that one merges with a cold front mid-week. I have a feeling that something formidable could come from this wave. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:06, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lmao GFS has a Category 3-4 striking near me in Atlantic Canada in 2 weeks time with this system. I mean this is my reaction:  XD (Still too far out to predict with any accuracy but I mean wtf... --Whiplash (talk) 05:27, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Always felt the name Jose would one day be used for something ominous, even though the 2011 one was that pathetic naked swirl. If this verifies, we have another monster hurricane setting its sites on the East Coast and Atlantic Canada long term. But I would say personally this wave is beginning to already have rotation over Africa and with the way the ridge is building, it sounds more like an Ike situation actually. I hope I'm wrong, that's the last thing the US would need after Harvey but it's also only August and the waters are warm. Owen 05:33, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Or this could be Irma instead, depending on 92L's fluctuating formation chances. If that's the case, we might see the continuation of the "I" curse this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:55, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh well, this will become Jose (if it doesn't go bust just like the AOI above). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:55, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Really feel that this will be ominous. It has got a lot of ocean along the future path. Hope it is nothing devastating in the very long run. If an "Ike situation" that Owen said materializes, it could even reach the same area as Harvey which is totally not acceptable. P.S. I once made a prediction on Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki about "Jose" being an extremely deadly and destructive system. It is here. That prediction is very, very unrealistic. But in an "Ike situation", I kind of fear that future "Jose" could actually take a similar path to that prediction (but likely not going into Mexico). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:38, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS takes this meandering over the central Atlantic over the next week or two without affecting land, but the Euro takes this heading WNW north of the Antilles and potentially hitting south Florida as a strong major hurricane in two weeks; if a cat 4 or 5 comes into Miami it would easily exceed Katrina's damage total as the costliest U.S. hurricane ever, due to the immense amount of property directly along the southeastern Florida coastline. Ryan1000 01:34, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:44, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * This one very unfortunately looking more and more like a potential Ike situation or even Andrew situation. I believe with Ike's path inititally model runs took the hurricane into Miami. God forbid, imagine it went into Miami and into New Orleans or a setup to where a trough could bring this thing to the northeast after crossing into the GOM taking it into Tampa (my city I live in, and most overdue city right now for a hurricane strike) which I just don't want to think of potential scenarios with this especially after Harvey. But what we are seeing here is a formula for the most destructive season since 2005, and the potential for Harvey and what would be Jose to be the costliest hurricanes on record (both in a single season). Hope I'm wrong. Owen 10:29, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Up to 30/70 and invested. I really don't like what the ECMWF is showing right now. At least the GFS makes this a fish. (Random horrible thought: if this strikes Florida or the Carolinas 2 weeks out on 11 September we may have one of the worst coincidences in US history. Actually why am I even thinking of this.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:57, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * The models were agressive with Harvey before it formed, then they backed off until the runs that took it into Texas days before, and if the Euro nails this one and it does hit the east coast a monster hurricane, then Harvey, as damaging as he is, may be rivaled himself. I know it's 10 days out but this season is definitely ramping up and with the position of the Bermuda high and active Cape Verde waves, we may have a string of damaging storms hitting the U.S. this year. Ryan1000 14:28, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

As NHC is now saying that 92L may not develop into a TS, well I think we might see a continuation of the "I" curse this year. Maybe Irma dodged it when 4L did not become strong enough to become Don (thus making 9L receive the name Harvey), but if PTC Ten/92L won't develop, I guess Irma can also be destructive (especially if it hits land). I hope that this system will stay in the open Atlantic though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:18, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the GFS has been tracking farther west towards the U.S. and Atlantic Canada as well, or at least hitting Bermuda as a strong hurricane. All of the latest runs from the Euro make this a cat 4/5 pointed at south Florida, and the HWRF also expects this to be strong and heading towards Florida in the long run as well. It may be a long way out but it's something to watch out for. Up to 50/80 and it could become a depression as soon as tomorrow. Ryan1000 00:54, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

Please, please no. Harvey is bad enough. A Cat 5 hitting South Florida would be just as bad. This season is starting to scare the crap out of me. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 01:27, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * As I mentioned earlier in Harvey's section, the United States's luck with no major hurricanes was bound to end some day. Harvey will hopefully be a reminder that worse will come our way in the next few decades. Moreover, given how active the MDR has been this year (case in point Bret, Don, and Harvey), I am not surprised that the models are going crazy with this system. This is almost like 2004, which started off very quiet but soon produced long-lived beasts, namely Frances and Ivan. Chances of formation for Invest 93L are now 50% for the next 48 hours and 80% for the next five days. Steve, as I commented previously, you seem to have some good fortune-telling skills with this season. On a side note, while we are talking about devastating storms, let me repeat an infamous saying that SkyFury would always say at this time of the year: BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:07, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * If only SkyFury can finally return someday. lol. Anyhow, this is very likely to continue the "I" curse because PTC 10 is being the most massive disappointment ever.
 * BEWARE THE "I" OF THE STORM!!!!!!!!!  ~  Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:24, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm hoping this storm will continue the "I" curse. Ida and Ian from 2015 and 2016 respectively were weak and haven't caused any impacts on land. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:54, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

And it's now 70/90. This will most likely become Irma. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:55, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * I miss Eric... fwiw though, assuming this becomes Irma, then we'll probably have to wait until Jose to see the first storm of September, since it's looking increasingly likely that this will develop before the end of August (though the adage still applies to systems which form as depressions in August, but don't become named storms until September — Felix is one such example). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:16, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Invest 93L is presently located near the Cabo Verde islands, and it may bring some heavy rainfall there, as noted in the latest NHC TWO. However, the most significant impacts will likely occur further west if the system develops and sustains itself. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:57, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS and HWRF have backed off on the intensity of this invest recently, but the Euro is still very agressive in the long-range intensity of this thing. However, the latest run of the Euro has pulled this a bit to the north in the last bit, so this may eventually make landfall north of Florida, but unless it remains out at sea, it would mean bad news elsewhere for where this does hit. Ryan1000 20:38, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, scratch that, the GFS is now on the bandwagon with the Euro, showing a major hurricane hitting south Florida over 10 days out. A long ways, yes, but after Harvey, we need to keep a very close eye on these heart-of-season storms. Ryan1000 01:25, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 90/90. PTC or TD 11 is coming (soon Irma). Get ready for the "I" storm! Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:43, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

100/100, NHC say advisories will most likely be initiated at 11am EDT. Kiewii 11:34, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irma
NHC have confirmed advisories will begin on 93L at 11am EDT, and ATCF says it is already up to 40kts/1006, marking the development of Tropical Storm Irma for the first time ever in the Atlantic. Kiewii 13:01, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like this could be a replay of the "I" curse. All depends on the track of this thing. Looks like will be a major at some point no matter whether it is a fish or something that impacts the U.S. --Whiplash (talk) 13:17, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on Irma, continue the "I" curse! Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:22, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * She's here. 50 mph on first advisory already. Looks like will be a hurricane before too long. --Whiplash (talk) 14:55, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * And she's forecast to hit 90 mph in 120 hours. May affect the Antilles adversely though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:10, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is looking highly threatening in the long run. Irma kind of reminds me of a somewhat more northerly version of Ivan (don't know if this will be a C5 though). BEWARE THE "I" OF THE STORM!!!!!!!!! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:33, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * I think Irma is going to become our second major hurricane of the season. She along with Harvey are really going to bring back up our ACE totals. And Kiewii, that's actually not true. The name Irma has been used before, and the last time it was used was back in 1978 before the new naming list. Owen 18:33, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Irma was previously used in the 1978 Atlantic hurricane season before the modern lists which began in 1979, and it was also used to name quite a few typhoons on the old WPac naming lists, and two SHem storms back in 1967 and 1987. But onto this Irma, the early portion of it's track is reminicent of Ike's in 2008, it's expected to move WNW, but the Bermuda High is expected to strengthen and force Irma west-southwest later on, and if that materializes, this could be a very severe storm for the northeastern Lesser Antilles in the long run, and if the ridge stays strong, Irma might storm through the Bahamas and crush south Florida like the Euro has been consistently showing. However, the GFS has backed off again on that and turns it northward and out to sea later on, though they were on board with the Euro earlier. Ryan1000 22:42, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

Now NHC takes this near the Lesser Antilles as a major. Looks like the "I" curse will continue this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:17, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Intensity on 65 mph/999 mbar. The last hurricane to be infected by the "I" curse was Ingrid in 2013. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:58, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, this will be the first storm since Ingrid to be cursed by the "I". This could be a hurricane by tomorrow, and the NHC now forecasts a major. Irma scares me. The Lesser Antilles are doomed to take a massive beating from Irma. And the very long run is even more concerning. A potential U.S. strike in Florida or the Gulf Coast is very possible if the ridge stays strong; if not, an Irene repeat in that it strikes the east coast could occur. The uncertainty for the very long run is great. Now, I'm going to make the adage a little less spammy (in case you were wondering, I didn't create the adage, Leeboy did back in 2015 - see archives on Ida). And I am going to use it every time I post about this storm in hopes that this adage will hold up and become popular among Hurricane Wikia users. Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:08, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * One thing I also didn't notice until further research was that Irma formed in the same area as Hurricane Donna did on August 29, 1960. Irma was born a day later than that 57 years later on August 30, 2017. The early path looks similar and the possibility of C4/C5 exists with Irma, and Donna herself accomplished C5. Donna was a major hurricane that ended up making landfall around Naples and rode up the East Coast to the northeast. I don't have a great feeling, could Tampa, the most overdue city for a hurricane be the next one to be devastated by a hurricane this year? Quite possibly - I, living in Tampa, am a bit concerned. Like the United States' drought for a major hurricane, the Tampa shield is going to break soon. Not only that, but the interaction with the expected future Jose in the Gom and a cut off low from a meteorological perspective could be epic. Most importantly, as Irma, treks across the Greater Antilles that's a lot of real estate and threatening to lives. Irma means business. Owen 07:48, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually Owen, Donna was downgraded to a cat 4 at its peak in the hurricane reanalysis project earlier this year. Ethel of 1960 also suffered a major intensity nerf to minimal cat 3 in reanalysis. But there's a possibility that Irma might become a cat 5 in the long run, and if the Euro projections verify, then it looks like Irma will end a long drought for the Miami area, and a repeat of the 1926 hurricane, if Irma pulls that off (god firbid it), would rival or even exceed the 160 billion damage estimate from Harvey, which in of itself was much worse than if a repeat of the mighty 1900 hurricane for Houston and Galveston happened today. All that aside, Irma has strengthened slightly, and is now up to 65 mph/999 mbars. She may become a hurricane later today. Ryan1000 08:42, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 70 mph and 997 mbars, forecast now calls for a fairly powerful cat 3 approaching the northern Lessers down the road. Ryan1000 12:30, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Irma
Wow! We have a quickly intensifying hurricane on our hands (Category 2 already). I'm quite surprised. This one has plenty of time to intensify further, and if Irma becomes a Category 5 at any point in her life like I think she could, it will be the first time we have back-to-back seasons with a five since 2004/2005. Owen 14:51, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Oh my God, Irma just exploded. This is scary. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 14:55, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow, I didn't expect such rapid strengthening. This just skipped C1 status completely. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:59, August 31, 2017 (UTC) UPDATE: This isn't looking good for the Lesser Antilles and the US East Coast in the long run as Irma has been moving south of what current guidance is suggesting, which continues to trend further southward. The NHC shows a C4 approaching the Lesser Antilles at the end of the week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:04, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Woah, I didn't expect Irma to intensify this fast, it completely skipped category 1 intensity and became a cat 2, I've never seen a storm do that before. Unless the storm entrains some dry air over the next day or two (which hasn't hindered Irma as much as the NHC initially expected), this might become a cat 5 before hitting the upper Lesser Antilles. They haven't seen a strong major hurricane since Lenny in November 1999, which approached from the southwest in the Caribbean; Georges the year before Lenny was the last major cape-verde type storm to hit the upper Lessers. The strengthening ridge also poses a problem, especially if it can stay strong while Irma heads westward, because that puts the U.S. eastern seaboard much more at risk. The Euro has trended from a cat 5 landfall in Miami southward to a major hurricane tearing through Hispaniola and Cuba before moving into the GoM. The GFS still doesn't expect the ridge to strengthen as much as the NHC expects, but they do make Irma an 898 mbar cat 5 coming dangerously close to Bermuda and later moving straight north into New England, so either way, Irma is a storm to watch out for. Ryan1000 16:36, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

This is already looking like a major hurricane. Since the advisories are being issued every 6 hours instead of 3, is it possible that in the next advisory Irma will be a Category 4? Once again skipping a status? Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 16:25, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Irma is continuing to strengthen. She really is trying to take off and pull a Julia 2010, but boy, she is going to be much more of an ACE generator. Owen 18:11, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * See here ! Hurricane Irma can be seen in Bahamas with another behind... Owen 19:13, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh my... I am beyond frightened. Is Irma trying to pull off a Julia?! This could become a massive ACE maker, potentially along the lines of Ivan (2004) by the time Irma dissipates. I can't believe that we are getting these big, dangerous monsters all of a sudden. This is likely going to be the worst and most damaging year since 2005. It is forecast to be a major through the whole 5-day forecast and at this point, I might be surprised if Irma fails to become a C5 with all the favorable enough conditions ahead. Cooler waters and dry air should stop Irma before early next week, when favorable conditions return and it just gets beyond frightening from there. Stay tuned everyone, this could become as damaging as Harvey and extremely deadly once its dissipation day comes. I knew the early MDR tropical storms would mean something... this season is really scaring me. Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:48, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Irma
30 hours after it formed. Amazing. 100 kts/967 mbar per the latest advisory, 10-9-4-2. Even if Irma never affects land (we can only hope), it looks "I" curse is well and truly back in effect. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:36, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Wow. If Irma keeps strengthening at this rate, I'll be very surprised if it doesn't become a Category 5. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 20:45, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Category 4 is already in the NHC forecast...just as it starts reaching inhabited islands.12.144.5.2 21:05, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Rapid intensification begins. Meanwhile, media predicts Harvey will cost more than Katrina. Puffle •  Talk  Blog  21:45, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

So, Irma is now scaring me personally. One of the models (I forget which one, maybe the Euro?) takes Irma close to where I live, if not, directly hitting where I live. Now, I live in a part of Florida where hurricanes are quite common, and we have gotten a few big ones, like Ivan. The problem is it's been 12 years since a hurricane has made a direct hit in this area, it was Dennis, in case you're wondering. This scares me, because the population of where I live has grown dramatically since 2005. So, I don't know how everyone will fare in this storm, with a lot of people living here who've never experienced a hurricane before. Heck, I don't know how I'd prepare for a direct hit. I barely even remember what it's like to see a powerful storm slowly moving towards you, although I do vividly remember the aftermath of Ivan and Dennis. No matter where it hits though, Irma is looking bad, and season is really starting to scare me. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 00:46, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Already a Category 3 hurricane, Irma is a little scary to watch as it will potentially continue to RI into a Category 5. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:10, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory has lowered the intensity forecast (though still ends with 140 mph winds).12.144.5.2 02:54, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory said that Irma's RI phase is over... for now. We may still see our next C5 from this storm. I hope the Antilles are prepared for this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:09, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Irma (2nd time)
She is currently undergoing an ERC so intensity is down to 95/972, expected to weaken slightly further, and no longer forecast to reach Category 4 strength within the next five days. Kiewii 14:54, September 1, 2017 (UTC)




 * It's not out of the question though, as conditions will become favorable again by that time, so the Lessers should still watch out. Ryan1000 18:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Whom I now refer to as Insane Irma is looking good again! To be a major hurricane out in that region is impressive enough, but the fact that Irma won't be heading into the subtropics or for an early recurve really makes this interesting. If Irma is strengthening again, she could possibly become a Cat 4 east of 40W, on a westwardly track toward some sort of land area. Nothing like that has ever happened. Irma has the biggest potential to become the strongest storm the Atlantic has ever seen. I don't think that will happen, but I'd bet on it becoming a Cat 5 and being able to stay there for a long time. To have a Cat 4 going west toward the US/Bahamas at its only at 40W.....the potential for this storm is baffling. Owen 19:33, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Euro has moved north from a Miami landfall in its latest runs, expecting Irma to eventually head into Georgia or the Carolinas as a large and powerful major hurricane down the road, while the GFS takes this north of the Antilles and then storming on a straight south-north rush into New England, particularly over Rhode Island or Massachusetts as a very powerful hurricane. It's still too soon to tell if Irma will hit the U.S. (there's still a decent possibility it may recurve east and out to sea; hopefully that happens, especially if the Antilles get hit by this), but the long-range potential U.S. landfalls from the global models are concerning, even at this point in time. EDIT: Also, according to Dr. Masters latest blog post, Irma is the earliest storm on record to become a major hurricane east of 35 degrees west and one of only five to do so since 1970; the others were Frances of 1980, Isaac of 2000, Fred of 2009 and Julia of 2010. Ryan1000 20:12, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Irma (2nd time)
"Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long." 105 kts/964 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:59, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lol, I was about to quote that from Blake in the new forecast discussion, NHC's humor never dissapoints. :) Anyways, the forecast now shows Irma going up to cat 4 again, but it'll be a while, as it's moving over only marginally favorable conditions right now, some dry air to the northwest of the storm and SST's at only the minimum needed for hurricane formation should keep the intensity in check until it nears the upper Lessers next week. Ryan1000 21:24, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope this one can intensify into a Category 4. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:32, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 68...that's only provided Irma stays out to sea. We don't want to root for it if it's a threat to land. Unfortunately, the 18Z GFS hasn't made Irma's long-range track any more promising, they now forecast Irma to be a 948 mbar major hurricane directly hitting NYC in 216 hours. This is all still far out, but the GFS has been trending increasingly farther west towards a U.S. landfall, and the Euro is still taking it to a strong hurricane landfall somewhere along the southeast coast. Ryan1000 00:13, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * The new South Ferry subway station Sandy flooded into uselessness reopened in June,so maybe the tropical weather gods decided New York is due for another hit.12.144.5.2 01:38, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * And never mind, I hope it weakens instead. Pressure up to 967 mbar. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:54, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Irma (3rd time)
Welp, back down to cat 2, 110 mph/970 mbars. Forecast to go back up to a major again later on. Ryan1000 09:27, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's going to be a long week... Kiewii 09:45, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * The eye's clearing out again. Looks like Irma's going back up to C3 by the end of the hour. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:38, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Never mind. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:01, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, this storm is way more boring than I expected. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:08, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sigh. Who knows if it lasts for a couple of weeks... Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 16:05, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's expected to rise back up to C4 strength (130 mph) when it passes north of the Lessers. I think this could become a fishspinner (hopefully), but the East Coast still has to watch out. I also agree that the continued fluctuating between C2 and C3 status is a bit frustrating. Everywhere along the East Coast (and maybe even Florida or the Lessers) should brace for impacts... Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:59, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS is becoming increasingly aggressive with this, the 18Z run from today now takes Irma down to an 878 mbar category 5 monster off the southeast coast before weakening to a 919 mbar category 5 hitting Virginia and the mid-Atlantic, god forbid a hurricane hit that area of the U.S. The latest run of the Euro recurves Irma offshore the U.S. east coast before it makes landfall (hopefully that happens), but they make this a powerful cat 4 hitting the upper lessers at the same time. The NHc forecast still makes Irma a cat 4, but narrowly missing the lessers to the north. However, due to Irma's very small size, a small deviation in her track can make the difference between devastation and no impacts at all to the islands; both of the models see Irma expanding after that before she approaches or eventually hits the U.S. east coast. Ryan1000 23:38, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Has the unprecedented amount of hot air emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue affected the storm track?12.144.5.2 01:50, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Irma going through another Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Isn't this like the third or fourth ERC Irma has gone through? I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane go through this many eyewall replacement cycles in such a short period of time. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 03:44, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Irma is making that southward jog that the NHC has been anticipating, and it appears to be getting better organized as conditions are becoming more favorable for it, although it's still expected to miss the islands to the north. In their forecast discussion, NHC also notes that while Irma may currently be a small hurricane, it could grow in size before it hits the upper lessers; if it doesn't, most of the models predict Irma will definitely grow in size afterwards. The latest GFS and Euro runs both make this a large and powerful cat 5 hitting North Carolina down the road. Ryan1000 08:15, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Irma (3rd time)
Again, another 5-knot increase, another new header. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:10, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Irma can't make up her mind, can she. :/ However, conditions are starting to get better for Irma by now, and it's WSW movement will continue for the next day or two before it turns WNW again. The 06Z GFS still makes it an enlarging, sub-900 mbar category 5 storm north of the Bahamas, and making a 900 mbar cat 5 landfall in southern North Carolina in about 8-9 days. If Irma hits NC at that intensity, it would be the strongest hurricane to ever hit North Carolina, and the northernmost cat 5 on record in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 11:45, September 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC forecast says it will peak at 140mph winds,though,who has it hitting 156?12.144.5.2 17:07, September 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Every time, it strengthens and then weakens and then it strengthens again. This one is getting boring to watch. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 19:41, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane watch now in effect for the upper part of the Lessers. Latest NHC track says that Irma might impact the Bahamas later this week. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:03, September 3, 2017 (UTC) HMON model today.

Intermediate advisory has same speed winds but lower pressure.If Irma settles on an eyewall rather than staying in the changing room we could be in for a cat 4 soon.12.144.5.2 01:30, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

As someone in Tampa, I am deeply concerned. I've had a feeling for a while Irma might ride up the West Coast of Florida then slam into Tampa and make the run up the Eastern Seaboard. I wouldn't rule it out. Especially if Irma gets close enough to Hispaniola and Cuba to make the move the hurricane a bit more to the west hugging the coastlines. The GFS has literally been making this a Category 5 slamming into the United States in every single run. I cannot imagine a C4/C5 even going up the spine of Florida and riding all the way through. I trust the models more now with the new recon data and the trend has been getting more southwest - and much much more concerning. Owen 04:23, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * The 06Z GFS doesn't stop making it a 5 either, now they forecast it to be an 899 mbar storm riding up the west coast of Florida before moving inland, meaning Cape Canaveral, the keys, and other areas up the coast will be hit possibly as hard as Tampa. The 00Z Euro's intensity forecast for today is more conservative than the GFS, but they still make it a colossal 932 mbar cat 4 storming into northern Cuba before turning north and hitting near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. If the Bermuda High stays strong until Irma reaches Cuba, it's hard to imagine her missing a U.S. landfall, the big question is where. Ryan1000 10:30, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Irma is becoming nastier and nastier. I think it's possible to see a Category 2/3 (with land interaction with Cuba) going through Florida and bringing heavy storm surge with the size the models want to grow her to. In the Tampa Bay area, the water will have nowhere to go but rise. I live in Pinellas County, if this scenario verifies, I expect mandatory evacuations for my area to be made. Owen 15:27, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

Currently 120 mph, 944 mbars. This is getting scarier by the minute; Irma is now forecast to reach 145 mph in 48 hours. Hurricane warnings now in place for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten/Saint Martin, and Saint Barthelemy. Dominica is under a tropical storm watch; Puerto Rico, the British & U.S. Virgin Islands and Guadeloupe are now under hurricane warning(s). If this and the AOI below both affect the Antilles within days as major storms, we may see a repeat of 1995's Luis & Marilyn. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:30, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC sees that 145mph as a PEAK,though,weakening after that,so well short of C5.But the track has been getting worse and worse for Cuba,and potentially the Gulf.Is Irma chasing Harvey after all?--12.144.5.2 15:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, I won't be surprised if this intensifies into a Cat. 5. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * If Irma takes the forecasted path, she most likely will not be on the list again. She's a big girl and is going to pack one hell of a punch wherever she decides to make a landfall. Owen 17:46, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well,she keeps trying on new eyewalls which distracts her from punching anybody.12.144.5.2 18:14, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * AL, 11, 2017090418,, BEST, 0, 167N, 539W, 115, 944, HU, ...We have a Cat4. Owen 18:58, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ok, Irma is really looking like a re-Ike. The Lesser Antilles, and later on Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, will take a terribad punch from the hurricane. The discussion notes that impacts in Florida are possible. But with the way it's going, it might bring impacts to Harvey recovery areas in the very long run. This is a very scary monster. Won't even be surprised if it becomes a C5. "I" is cursed for the first time since 2013, and it will be the first time since 2011 that the letter was used for a destructive major hurricane. Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:22, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

Irma is now a Category 4. 130 mph, 944 mb. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 20:45, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

The forecast peak is now up to 150mph winds BUT it starts weakening after tomorrow.12.144.5.2 21:13, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Irma may get stronger than that, it wouldn't surprise me if Irma becomes a cat 5 as it approaches or passes just north of the Antilles tomorrow. Both of the global models predicted in their 12Z runs today that Irma would hit Miami as a powerful major hurricane and then head north to hit Savannah, Georgia, but the GFS makes the miami landfall an 897 mbar cat 5 monster, while the Euro does it as a 935 mbar cat 4. Either scenario would be catastrophic; if a category 5 hurricane hit Miami today in a similar fashion to the great Miami hurricane of 1926, it could cause as much damage as Harvey is currently projected to cause, if not worse (since Irma could head farther north up the coast and make a second powerful landfall somewhere, if it doesn't in Savannah). Ryan1000 21:43, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

NHC is predicting a Cat. 4 landfall in South Florida with Irma. Which would be the second of the season. Does anyone even remember the last time there were two cat. 4 landfalls in the US in a single season? Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 22:06, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Latest GFS run shows Irma destroying 80% of Florida.-- Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:30, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * @Lee: There has never been an instance of 2 Category 4+ intensity landfalls on the continental U.S. in a single season as far as I can tell. Only example that might count of two "U.S." Cat 4+ landfalls would be 1928 where the Okechobee hurricane made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Cat 5 (if you can't Puerto Rico as U.S.) and then went on to make landfall in Florida as a 4. But that was the same system not two different ones. --Whiplash (talk) 22:40, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * If the models do hold true and Irma makes a strike anywhere near the Miami area as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane this season damage-wise will be more destructive than the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season the previous record holder, and we aren't even close to being done yet there still could be another destructive hurricane later in the season but hopefully not. --Whiplash (talk) 22:55, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually Whiplash, 1992 technically had two category 4+ U.S. landfalling hurricanes in one season (Andrew and Iniki), but Iniki was a Pacific hurricane that hit Hawaii; if Irma hits Florida as a cat 4 or stronger, it would be the first time on record in which two Atlantic category 4 hurricanes hit the U.S. at category 4 or stronger strength in one year (operationally, 1945 and 1949 were thought to have accomplished that as well, but the category 4 hurricanes that hit Texas in those two seasons were downgraded to category 3 and 2 intensity, respectively, in the hurricane reanalysis project). Anyhow, back to Irma, yeah, the 18Z GFS is completed, they now make Irma an 891 mbar cat 5 hitting the south-central end of Florida, southwest of Miami but northeast of the Keys and riding up the entire state, that would be terrible to see in Florida. Ryan1000 23:44, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 140 mph, 943 mbars. Sooner or later Irma will dethrone Harvey as this season's strongest (so far). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:52, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Florida has had its share of major landfalls...Keys 1919,Miami 1926,Okeechobee 1928,Labor Day 1935,Fort Lauderdale 1947,Donna 1960,Andrew 1992...but where will Irma rank among them?12.144.5.2 01:39, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Irma is on the verge to be a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 02:08, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * My query relates to impact on Florida.(Wilma was a champ among Cat 5s,but wasn't that when hitting Florida,though my cousin certainly endured damage).12.144.5.2 03:12, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

2 AM advisory just came in. Now up to 145 mph, pressure down to 939, also thanks for the info guys, surprising that no Atlantic season has had two category 4 landfalls. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 05:40, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 1 Mbar short of Harvey, but it's likely to get stronger in the next advisory or two. Irma isn't far from category 5 intensity and it might become one just before passing by or over the northeaternmost islands in the Lesser Antilles, (particularly Anguilla), but it may become one later on as well. Only unpredictable ERC's that may expand the size of Irma may keep it in check; otherwise, she's having a field day out there. The global models both agree on a landfall in south-central Florida and riding up the state as a powerful major hurricane, but the NHC forecast has been shifting north, if Irma manages to shift to a landfall over Miami, it would be one of the worst hurricanes to hit the U.S, and could rival or well exceed the damage caused by Harvey. Ryan1000 07:09, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Irma now 150/937. Harvey dethroned as strongest of the season. Recon should probably find a strong 4 or Category 5. Owen 08:48, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

This is a (bigger) monster unraveling right before our eyes. Another history is being made, just weeks after Harvey. You're right Owen, this will most likely become a C5, unless it becomes Joaquin-esque (which stayed at 150 mph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:51, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * NOAA Mission #7 is now getting ready to pass through the center. I won't be surprised it finds a C5; Irma's looking really scary on satellite imagery right now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:06, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Irma
Lord have mercy. Recon found a Cat 5. Owen 11:46, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh no. Irma's gotta go after this year. 175 mph, 929 mbars. Is she the strongest since 2005? Or was it Igor? Well, whatever. This is pure madness. May the areas in her path be prepared for her wrath.
 * EDIT: She is the strongest since 2007's Felix. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC) (Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:48, September 5, 2017 (UTC))
 * At 5 AM they found 150mph winds and the forecast was this would stay steady for two days and then weaken.At 7:45 AM they found 175mph...looks like Irma pulled a fast one!12.144.5.2 12:01, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * The models (unfortunately) nailed this, to be honest. Irma is expected to be a C5 for at least 48 hours from now. Forecast to peak at 180 mph. This is a storm for the books — like her predecessor (aka Harvey). This is a disaster unfolding right before our eyes. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:05, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Oh my gosh. I cannot believe how it just jumped up to 175 mph this fast. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 12:28, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Its pressure is unusually high for a 175mph cane. Looks to be in the range of Felix/Carla more than anything else.

Will the pressure be lower at the 11 AM advisory?12.144.5.2 12:39, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane IRMA As of 12:00 UTC Sep 05, 2017:


 * Location: 16.7°N 57.8°W
 * Maximum Winds: 155 kt Gusts: N/A
 * Minimum Central Pressure: 929 mb
 * Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
 * Radius of Circulation: 300 NM
 * Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

Strongest hurricane in Atlantic since Wilma in 2005. No words. Owen 12:51, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * NHC expects further strengthening to 180 mph soon; if it does, Irma will exceed Felix as the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Wilma (in pressure since Dean, unless Irma gets below 905 mbars). Looks like the GFS wasn't crazy predicting a cat 5 after all, though even that model didn't expect Irma to intensify to a cat 5 this fast. It's time to start praying for the folks in the upper Lessers and Florida, Irma may be their worst hurricane in decades, if not ever. EDIT: (Be careful with putting in coded formats Owen, you might accidentally cause errors on the rest of the page; everything below was indented twice. Don't worry, I fixed it, but be sure to switch to source mode from visual mode at the top-right hand corner of the editor from now on when putting in coded formats). Ryan1000 12:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * It may supersede Charley as Florida's worst since Andrew,but to be their worst ever,it would have to beat out Labor Day 1935,Okeechobee 1928,and more...12.144.5.2 13:28, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * You never know, Harvey didn't seem like it would eclipse Katrina at first glance of its landfall location, but with record flooding in Houston to the northeast, it did, Irma may as well, especially if it maintains this intensity as it approaches Florida down the road, or if it's projected track and landfall shifts farther north towards Miami, which is a possibility since stonger hurricanes tend to turn more north. Another thing of note, Irma is the first category 5 hurricane recorded over the open tropical Atlantic Ocean since Isabel of 2003. Every category 5 since Isabel reached its intensity in either the Caribbean Sea or GOM. Ryan1000 13:34, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

So, the 'I' curse is definitely back. Even if it doesn't hit Florida too hard (one can only hope), areas like Puerto Rico, Antigua, and other islands will be battered by this storm. Also, it's quite fitting that the last major 'I'-named hurricane got the name that this very hurricane replaced. Beware The I Of The Storm... Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 13:39, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is history in the making. I can't believe I woke up to a C5. Irma is going to be a certain retirement candidate now. This is the most cursed that "I" has been since...Ivan? Anyway, really hope that everyone in its path evacuate, take shelter and pack up belongings, for this could be one of the most devastating hurricanes in history. The Lesser Antilles may be devastated, and then it will set its sights on Cuba, Florida and potentially the Gulf Coast. Maybe my Jose prediction (link to it is in this storm's AOI section) wasn't so unrealistic after all... Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Archived Harvey as Irma is the new focus right now. Irene (the name Irma replaced) was only a tropical storm when it passed by the upper Lesser Antilles, Irma may be the strongest hurricane to affect the area on record if it maintains this intensity as it approaches the islands, or intensifies slightly to 180 mph. It's still a fairly compact storm for its strength, with hurricane-force winds going only 45 miles out and TS force winds going 140 miles out, but it may enlarge itself through ERC's as it passes through the northeastern Lessers and approaches Florida later this week. Pray for the folks in the upper Lessers, because they may never see a hurricane this powerful again in their lifetimes...  Ryan1000 14:08, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh my Jesus Christ! A Category 5 hurricane and I knew it would happen. This will definitely continue the "I" curse for sure. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:26, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I would guess that never seeing a hurricane this powerful again in their lifetimes would be the subject of the prayers.But I think there will be hurricanes like this every now and then.12.144.5.2 14:29, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 11 AM advisory: 180 MPH WINDS AND 931 MBAR PRESSURE. God damn, this is going to be catastrophic for the folks in the Lessers...NHC has increased their tone in their updated statement on the page as well ...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA HEADING TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA... Also, according to the forecast discussion,

This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records. Ryan1000 14:48, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 180 and 931? That doesn't seem right.--2600:1001:B00A:EF0:5836:F4E2:4072:4D56 15:13, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * The pressure gradient is stronger with storms in this area of the Atlantic, the water northeast of the Caribbean isn't typically as warm as the waters in the northwest Caribbean or GOM at this time of year; if this hurricane was in the Caribbean or GOM with this windspeed, it would be one of the, if not the, strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record in terms of pressure (in terms of windspeed, Irma is already). EDIT: To make matters worse, Irma is looking annular, so it'll be slow to weaken over the next several days, basically a worst-case scenario for some of the Lesser Antilles... Ryan1000 15:21, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I believe these are the highest wind speeds ever recorded for a hurricane in the open Atlantic (as opposed to GoM or Caribbean Sea). --Whiplash (talk) 15:35, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC mentioned that in the forecast discussion quote I showed above. Also, Phil Klotzbach mentioned on Twitter that Irma reached 175 mph winds farther east than any other such storm in the Atlantic, eclipsing David of 1979. Ryan1000 15:46, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Winds and pressure both went up.Could mean winds have reached a peak but NHC forecasts weakening to start tomorrow while noting the fluctuations due to eyewall replacements.As I recall Wilma was the lowest-pressure Atlantic hurricane ever,Allen the highest-wind-speed Atlantic hurricane ever,Rita the strongest Gulf hurricane ever,but a storm in 1780 was said to have blown the bark off trees,which takes stronger winds than any modern recorded hurricane has had.Let's hope Irma has no record-setting ambitions,especially in the fatalities department.
 * The NHC forecast track seems to draw a bullseye on Key West,which may be looking back at 1919 and 1935 for comparisons...12.144.5.2 15:49, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * But isn't this the same region that gave us Isabel and Hugo? If they can go below 920 with lower wind speeds then so can Irma with 180.--2600:1001:B00A:EF0:3089:C52A:B380:981F 17:07, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Oh. My. God. NHC discussion now says that this is the most powerful hurricane ever recorded outside of the Caribbean and Gulf. Very likely, Irma is getting the dark red coloring in my retirements (it just needs 5 more mph). Won't be surprised if Allan's windspeed is tied or surpassed... This is the scariest hurricane ever. Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:59, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

The fact that the pressure went up could mean that the wind speed is about to go down.12.144.5.2 16:09, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Recon found a pressure of 927 not too long ago. Kiewii 16:13, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Was this after the 11 AM advisory?...I note that inhabited islands are now within the purple (highest) "50 kt wind speed probabilities" band on the NHC map though none are in "hurricane winds" yet.Irma is reportedly producing 190kt gusts but that's 30kt short of the world cyclone record (Olivia,in Australia,1996)...what's the Atlantic record?12.144.5.2 16:22, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * In sustained winds, Allen of 1980 holds the record with 190 mph winds. In terms of maximum wind gusts on land, I believe Hurricane Gustav of 2008 had a wind reading of 211 mph (184 knots) on it's Cuba landfall as a high-end cat 4, not sure if that's the Atlantic record but I believe it was. Ryan1000 16:34, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Evacuations about to be ordered for Monroe County and the Keys in Florida. --Whiplash (talk) 16:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I will be evacuating probably Friday morning - I live in Pinellas County. I am worried, as is many other people here. Very possible we could see the Tampa shield finally come apart this year. Owen 17:19, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like Barbuda is basically screwed by this point. The island is going to get leveled. Anguilla will be next. Could be looking at 2 Category 5 landfalls in short order if Irma keeps up her track. --Whiplash (talk) 17:53, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 2pm intermediate advisory ups the ante further still to 160 kts/926 mbar — funny thing is, going solely by pressure, Irma still has yet to match Igor's 924 mbar, despite being 25 kts stronger by windspeed. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:55, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Irma now up to 185, and 'still' showing signs of strengthening. Is it possible that we could see Allen's record fall? Also, stay safe, Owen! Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 17:59, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

It looks like Irma will be cashing in the 401k after just one season of work...many retired names have had long careers.I hope Irma didn't go for a 401kt!12.144.5.2


 * Irma has to go after this season. She has an outside chance to approach Patricia's wind record. Owen 18:35, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah,retired hurricanes tend to be real blowhards.12.144.5.2 18:42, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually,even a 401km would be a nasty part of Irma's retirement package!12.144.5.2 19:58, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I just looked back in my old prediction archives. I predicted Irma would become a C5 4 years ago, and here we are now. Anyways, this storm is gonna be a doozy. T  G  2 0 1 7 19:38, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Advisory #27 keeps Irma at the same windspeed and pressure. It could still strengthen a bit more to tie Allen's windspeed, before a slow weakening is forecast to begin. The upper Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico could be absolutely devastated... This is one frightening monster... P.S. congrats on your accurate prediction, TG! :) Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:55, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Advisory 27 also says that an eyewall replacement is starting (which would lead to weakening),and the forecast discussion has the winds weakening steadily.We may well have seen the most extreme wind and pressure readings.12.144.5.2 21:09, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Irma's annular structure will probably keep it from weakening significantly over the next few days unless it heads farther west than anticipated and hits Puerto Rico directly, though given the farther trend west than previously anticipated, Irma might slam the Virgin Islands directly, if it doesn't just hit the northernmost Lesser Antilles. Either way, this is looking to be historic for the area and later Florida. 12Z Euro takes it over Cuba and then heading north to Naples or the Punta Gorda area, just south of Tampa, while the 18Z GFS turns this north before hitting Miami and eventually hitting South Carolina as a monster hurricane. NHC is taking the Euro's track, but it's still too soon to tell where Irma will go in that area due to an approaching trough. Ryan1000 23:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane recon has reportedly found a pressure of 917mb. Strengthening appears to be continuing pressure wise even though an ERC looks imminent. --Whiplash (talk) 23:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 8pm intermediate advisory keeps the winds steady but lowers the pressure to 916 mbar. 167 kt winds reported by dropsonde near the surface. Barbuda staring down a cannon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:52, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Those winds are (in link) said to be accompanied by 934mb pressure while the ones ~916mb (higher up?) are 173kt...so are the recorded stats for a hurricane based on winds at the surface but pressure at a certain altitude?12.144.5.2 01:00, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory. Winds stay the same, but pressure has gone down to 916 MB. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 23:49, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * For the record, with a pressure now down to 916 mbars, Irma has the lowest pressure from any hurricane in the open tropical Atlantic on record, eclipsing Gloria of 1985 by 3 mbars. The northeastern Lessers are about to get crushed by this monster tonight, pray for them...Ryan1000 00:19, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Second to Isabel's 915 mbar, but somehow I have a sinking feeling that Irma might not quite be done intensifying :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gah, why'd I forget her...well, unfortunately, I agree with you, Irma might still get stronger before hitting the Lessers tonight. If Irma can pump up just 5 more miles of windspeed, she'll tie Allen. Ryan1000 00:33, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maybe Irma heard you talking about Isabel...as of Advisory 28A central pressure is 914mb (26.99 inHg).12.144.5.2 06:10, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Caribbean is in trouble for the hurricane. Hurricane Warnings, Hurricane Watches, Tropical Storm Warnings, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for most of the Caribbean. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 01:20, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * I am still monitoring Irma here in Tampa - still have a gut feeling of a Tampa direct hit. Lines are crazy here, water is completely gone, and schools are closing in preparation. Should the current trends continue, looks like I will be evacuating to see family in New Jersey this weekend. We aren't riding this monster out. Owen 02:25, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Stay safe, Owen! :)  Pray it doesn't destroy your home or any belongings left there. Irma is 185 mph/916 mbars, and conditions are deteriorating in the Lessers. They won't get out of Irma without being devastated... And the track is now showing a very likely direct hit on Tampa. I am glad you are evacuating, Owen! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:55, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Situation appears to have levelled off,with eyewall replacement & weakening anticipated,as of Advisory 28.(Amazing how many people feel under pressure about this,when the last thing Irma believes in is high pressure!)12.144.5.2 03:06, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 * I hope you stay safe Owen. It will pose threat to the Caribbean. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 03:35, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall on Barbuda
Barbuda is now in the eye wall of the hurricane according to reports and landfall should be occurring within the coming 2 hours. Communications has been lost with both Barbuda and Antigua. Emergency broadcasts that were being played by Antigua's Observer Radio have been cut off. Reports from the station indicated fires and roofs being ripped of in Antigua even before the worst of the storm approached. There is no word from Barbuda where it appears the community of Codrington is likely going to be totally destroyed. Also the island is home to a major natural reserve for birds and there are fears it is going to destroy several populations of endangered birds. Not a good start so far. Looks like will be the worst hurricane ever for this island. --Whiplash (talk) 04:02, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * The station on Barbuda if anyone is interested. Should be updating every 6 minutes but hasn't for almost 30. Wouldn't be surprised if this thing has gotten knocked out already or soon will be. --Whiplash (talk) 04:16, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * When the station stopped reporting pressure was 28.95 in...falling rapidly,but Irma's eye is at 27.05 in.Looks like the station failed early.12.144.5.2 04:39, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol, the station failed miserably. Puerto Rico is preparing for the hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:09, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, it already killed 3 people although Irma just made landfall in Barbuda. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:19, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Recon investigating is finding Irma is holding onto intensity. New minimum pressure of 911.8 mbar found. Owen 05:22, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Appears that Irma has now made her first landfall as Barbuda is now in the eye. --Whiplash (talk) 05:29, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes,Advisory 28A says the eye is passing over Barbuda where they apparently still have an automated station reporting 27.40 in pressure (though Irma as a whole has cracked the 27-inch mark with 26.99 (914 mbar) and is maintaining those 185mph winds).12.144.5.2 06:03, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Winds stay the same, pressure down to 914. Barbuda is getting absolutely battered by Irma right now. I hope people who stayed behind have really good shelter. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 06:06, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is easily going to be Barbuda's worst hurricane on record, and Irma is far from done. The storm is now expected to move into the islands of Anguilla, Saint Barthelemy, and The Settlement on the northernmost British Virgini Islands all while still an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane. However, the islands south of that are taking a beating from Irma as well, and Irma is expected to maintain its category 5 strength as it passes north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, before it weakens to a strong cat 4 as it moves into the Bahamas and threatens southern Florida. Ryan1000 07:51, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I also hate to be the bearer of bad news for Miami, but even the Euro has trended farther east with its latest run, and now both it and the GFS take this into Miami as a cat 5 before moving north and hitting either Savannah or Charleston as a weaker category 4 storm. Irma might be the doomsday Miami hurricane that has been feared for a long time, maybe even worse than a 1926 repeat if it makes a 2nd landfall farther north and severely hits two major U.S. cities. Ryan1000 08:47, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

The eyewall is now completely past Barbuda. They got slammed by the eyewall though. Also, an anemometor on Barbuda was knocked out, after it had measured a pressure of 920. I can't even find reports of how high the winds were there. Also, as of the latest advisory, nothing has changed in terms of strength. Winds still 185, pressure still 904 914, forgive me. I didn't get much sleep last night due to worrying about those in the path of Irma. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 09:10, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * New NHC cone is made out, and landfall has now shifted from the Keys to south-central Florida, if it continues to push farther east than that due to that trough then Miami could be in for a worst-case scenario. Ryan1000 09:46, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall on St. Barthelemy
Irma's eye has now passed over the small French island of St. Barthelemy, and it's going to pass over Anguilla and St. Martin soon (they're already getting battered by the eyewall of this monster category 5 storm). Ryan1000 10:08, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall on St. Martin
Irma is now making landfall over Anguilla and St. Martin...St. Martin took a beating from this thing as you can see in this video, not sure how Anguilla is doing but it's likely not any better than St. Martin. Worse, Irma is taking a jog slightly west of north now, and if that continues then the BVI and northern Puerto Rico could get a direct slamming from this as well. Ryan1000 11:15, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * 8 AM advisory came out an hour ago, the winds are still roaring at 185 mph but the pressure rose 4 mbars to 918. Irma's outer rainbands have started to bring heavy impacts to the northern BVI. I don't want Florida to let their guard down just yet, but the forecast track for Irma from the 06Z GFS has now shifted far enough east to keep this off the coast of Florida and away from a direct hit on Miami, but they still make it a category 5 hurricane paralleling the east coast of the state, and racing northwards to a cat 4 landfall in Savannah. Ryan1000 13:25, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA PASSES OVER ST. MARTIN... ...NORTHERN EYEWALL POUNDING ANGUILLA...
 * Saint Martin takes the direct hit from Irma. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

The 11 AM advisory is out...numbers unchanged from 8 AM...but this has to be asked now...what is the longest time any previous hurricane has maintained winds of 185mph or more?12.144.5.2 15:22, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall on BVI
I was actually going to point that out 12, there has never been any hurricane in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific that has maintained 185 mph winds for a full day...until Irma. Gilbert, Wilma, and Allen only held winds that high for one advisory, or 6 hours, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 did so for two advisories (12 hours), and Patricia did so for 3 (18). So Irma, pending reanalysis, has spend more time with 160 knot winds than any other TC on record in the NHC's AOR. Also, unless the NHC's track continues to shift east or Irma slips farther in intensity, Irma is now projected to make a 145 mph cat 4 landfall over Miami on Sunday, and then head north towards a Georgia or South Carolina landfall as a category 3 hurricane. Not good...to add onto that, the British Virgin Islands are about to get the eye of Irma, who knows how bad this thing could be there, they've never seen a hurricane this powerful. Ryan1000 15:47, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

It turns out Klotzbach just addressed this in a Tweet,saying Allen had 180mph or more for 18 hours and Irma was up to 24.So at 185 Irma beats Allen 21(will it make 24?) to 6 even though Allen managed a 190 peak.12.144.5.2 15:58, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yeah, though that 190 mph, 899 mbar peak was only for one advisory, and Allen didn't maintain 180 mph winds for a consecutive 24 hours, it peaked with that windspeed or higher at one advisory in the Eastern Caribbean, 3 advisories in the Yucatan Channel, and one in the western Gulf of Mexico. Also, in either instance, Allen didn't maintain 185 mph winds for more than the one advisory when his winds were 190. To add onto that, Irma's extensive time spent as a strong hurricane has already led to her racking up 34.65 ACE units; if Irma can maintain her powerful major hurricane intensity for the next week or so before it recurves north and hits the eastern seaboard near Georgia or South Carolina, it's very possible Irma could rack up more than 50 or even 60 ACE units, which would be more than any Atlantic storm since Ivan got more than 70 in September 2004. Ryan1000 16:07, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * The noon position update on Irma(55 miles east of St. Thomas) says pressure's up to 922mb/27.23 in but winds are still 185,that makes 22 hours.I suppose the 3 advisories in the Yucatan Channel were what Klotzbach meant as the old 180+ record.12.144.5.2 16:13, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * IRMAGHERD! HURRURCURN!
 * Anyway, I was just looking at the Sky News report. Kay Burley (the host) and the Antigua and Barbuda spokeswoman said that Irma absolutely obliterated the islands already hit. Some Caribbean islands were left contactless for seven plus hours. The footage on Twitter of this storm proves how catastrophic the damage already is; Saint Marten/Sint Maarten already look like they had a huge 1000000 litre bucket of water dumped on them. Plenty of millionaire mansions are being threatened too (Richard Branson refused to evacuate from his mansion in the BVI) as well as ordinary people's lives. I will be very scared when this approaches Haiti since most lives would likely be taken there (Matthew, anyone?) God help those affected/to be affected by this storm. This looks set to be even worse than Matthew and Ivan; just look at the sheer monstrosity of Irma. And with Jose trailing behind (which to me could be Fabian 2) GOD KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN. HELP THESE PEOPLE! IRMA WILL CERTAINLY BE FACING RETIREMENT THIS YEAR!  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:20, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I suppose Irma is in the running to be the worst thing to hit the Antilles since the Great Hurricane of 1780.12.144.5.2 16:26, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

September
It's already September in UTC; might as well start this now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:04, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll add the disturbance just in case it forms on this month.Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:43, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical wave behind Hurricane Irma
This tropical wave is emerging from the African coast a bit south of where Irma is so this future system could end up being a low-rider. Currently highlighted by NHC at 0/20. Depending on the development order between this and the GOM Aoi, it will either be Jose or Katia. Owen 18:11, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel this could be another big one... the Atlantic is being really frightening right now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:50, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh my, is the Atlantic on a roll right now? I hope not, but this is the peak of the season... anyway, this thing is still at 0/20 (just like the AOI below), and things can still change. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:12, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Models are now developing this into Jose and it looks poise to become our next major if its not affected by shear of Irma. This one is a low rider so strenghtening is forecast as it will pass warmer water than Irma. The lesser antilles should keep an eye on this one as it might be a double punch after all. Allan calderini


 * 0/40. This is really something to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:07, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50. Are we about to see two back-to-back Cape Verde type hurricanes? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:36, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:43, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here comes Jose, which could become another major Cape-Verde type hurricane. I have sort of a bad feeling with this one as well... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:01, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/70. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:33, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 0/60. This may be weaker than Irma though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:04, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/70. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:32, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Currently 30/70, may change in the next advisory though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 40/80. The race to Jose is on, will it be this or the Bay of Campeche AOI? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:36, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Invested and up to 40/80. It may become Jose once it's a TS. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 50/80. I hope this won't exacerbate the (expected) impacts/effects of Irma. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 60/90. Already producing winds of near tropical storm force. While everyone is focused on Irma, we have to keep an eye on what will probably become Tropical Storm Jose. Could be another hurricane...maybe third major in a row. Owen 05:36, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't want to get financial advice from a hurricane specialists...their INVEST-ments lead to depressions!12.144.5.2 06:12, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol 12. This isn't likely to do as much as Irma, due to outflow from the latter that should keep this in check intensity-wise and a more northward turn that will likely make this miss the Lesser Antilles and the U.S. Bermuda may have to watch out down the road though, and maybe Atlantic Canada.Ryan1000 07:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:51, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jose
And we have the 10th named storm of the year. Currently behind Irma and forecast to become a 105 mph cat 2, but fortunately it's expected to miss the Lesser Antilles...but like I said before, Bermuda and/or Atlantic Canada may have to watch out in the long run. Ryan1000 15:00, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh I just hope it won't be a Marilyn for the Antilles (as Irma is being very eerily similar to Luis for them). Meanwhile, those in Bermuda should keep an eye on Jose. They may have escaped Gonzalo '14 and Nicole '16, but this storm may be something to watch out for. If this hits the Canadian Maritimes, this may have a decent chance of retirement (as what happened to Igor '10 and Juan '03). For now though, all eyes are on Irma and this storm, although a threat, is not (yet) a major threat. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Are the Carolina Outer Banks safe?12.144.5.2 15:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12, It's far too soon to tell that with Jose. Give it some time. Ryan1000 15:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Didn't really expect Jose to come this soon. I really hope it's a fishspinner. Luckily it could miss the Lessers (unless the track shifts a bit south), but Bermuda and Atlantic Canada may have to watch out. My best hope is that this becomes a fishspinning major because devastation is NOT what we need after the Harvey and Irma monsters. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:02, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I didn't even know Jose had formed. Sorry Jose, that just shows how much people care about you compared to Irma. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 18:58, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes, Irma is the big and scary one at the current moment. But little Jose is up to 45 mph/1006 mbars. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:35, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * We are focusing on Irma, sorry Jose. Anyway, this is forecasted to be a hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose is trying his best to strengthen and be noticed behind a certain monster near the Lessers. It is now 50 mph/1004 mbars. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:58, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * 60 mph/1002 as of Advisory 4.12.144.5.2 11:39, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose is quickly getting his act together, he might become a hurricane later today at the rate he's going. However, due to the upwelled water and outflow from Irma, Jose likely won't get too powerful over the open Atlantic. Ryan1000 13:25, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
 * Yep, you guessed it. Jose to become a hurricane by tonight. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:33, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fabian 2, to be honest.  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:21, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
Another AOI is on the Gulf of Mexico. It's at 10/10. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 19:36, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/20. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 01:40, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 10/30. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:32, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/40. This is really the peak of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 40/50. Not sure if it becomes Katia. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria? This will become at most Katia if it is named... anyway, this might probably only be a TS because conditions are only marginally conducive. The race to Jose is on! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:38, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested and is now at 50/60. The loser will become Katia, the winner becomes Jose — unless one of them follows the same fate as PTC 10. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Woah, it's now 60/70. The race for Jose is really on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:53, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * This'll be Katia if it forms now, since 94L became Jose. Ryan1000 15:03, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, here comes Katia. It will meander around the BOC and possibly be a re-Nate or Ingrid, although it's too early to tell if it will be a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:03, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
Now a TD. Forecast to gradually strengthen. It'll curve to the southwest, something I don't think I've ever seen before in a BOC tropical cyclone. Current intensity is 35 mph/1008 mbar, and it's forecast to reach 65. But knowing NHC forecasts to be conservative, a hurricane is an outside possibility. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * HWRF predicted a strong hurricane with this earlier, but they're probably too aggressive with some weaker storms like this one, although they perform well with organized, stronger hurricanes (even though Irma outperformed every model by becoming a cat 5 this morning). Ryan1000 23:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * The potential 11th named storm, Katia, will be coming any moment now. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

DVORAK estimates up above 35 kt now - I expect the upgrade to Tropical Storm Katia at 2 or 5 am. Have a feeling this will be another hurricane. Owen 05:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hello Katia! It is going to be Re-Franklin because it will hit on the same location as Franklin (I think). Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:12, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Expectations or not,as of the 2 AM NHC map it is still TD Thirteen,NOT "Katia".12.144.5.2 06:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia
It was already being called Katia on the storm floaters page, and the 5 AM advisory confirmed that. 40 mph, 1006 mbars. We have the 11th named storm of the year. Ryan1000 08:47, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well damn, the NHC now expects Katia to become a hurricane as well, that'll give us 6 consecutive hurricanes, assuming Jose becomes one. The Atlantic hasn't pulled that off since 2005 had Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, and Stan. Ryan1000 16:02, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Whaat? Another Frankie?  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:22, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements.

Andros 1337 (talk) 01:53, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 5% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 15% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes, but overshadowed by Harvey.
 * Don - 10% - May have a slight chance of being retired for political reasons, but I wouldn't count on it, so I will keep my estimate conservative.
 * Emily - 0.01% - Very minor impact.
 * Franklin - 5% - Damage total unknown, but probably minor and caused no deaths.
 * Gert - 1% - Caused two deaths due to rip currents, but that is it.
 * Harvey - 100% - Record flooding in Texas, an obvious retirement candidate.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#889">0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Franklin miraculously caused no fatalities in Mexico. There is almost no chance of retirement. The only damage from Franklin was minimal.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#449">5% - Two people drowned from rip currents in the United States, which is very sad. Gert defied all of the forecasts, becoming not a Category 1 hurricane, but a Category 2 hurricane! I thought that Gert wouldn't be any stronger than a strong TS, but I was very wrong. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#500">100% - I really have no words about how bad this storm was. Harvey jumped off a cliff, and could bring Irma with him. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 17:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff6060">Irma : Currently active - We'll see. T  G  2 0 1 7 19:47, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements from Steve
Check the "Notes" tab for explanations on why I did some things the way I did. Retirements=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#086">B+ - It was fantastic for forming in April, but being only a moderate TS means it can't receive higher than a B+.
 * <font color="#0CF">Bret : <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#F00">F  - Existed in an unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect). The location gives Bret a tiny retirement chance and improves the grade a bit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#F50">D - The region it struck has been through much worse, and it has been very overshadowed by Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">Z - Failed to redeem itself after 2011, but 50 mph is enough to prevent it from getting my worst grade. The 20% is for the unlikely chance that just because Donald Trump is president, it could get the "Adolph, Israel, and Isis" treatment.
 * <font color="#0CF">Emily : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#8F0">C+  - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Damage totals are unknown and there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Damage could have been a bit extensive, however.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#086">B+  - Got stronger than what initial forecasts called for. 2 saddening indirect deaths from rip currents is nowhere near enough for the name to be considered for retirement.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#0F0">B- - This will be retired. 3rd costliest in U.S. history according to preliminary totals, and 66 deaths. The NHC has to be on drugs to not retire this.


 * Also, Harvey's grade can be explained by the damage and deaths factoring into it. Its amazing track (forming, dissipating, reforming, RI-ing, stalling and surviving over land) would give it an instant A++. But the devastation it wrought brings the grade way down to a B-.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.



Notes= Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0% (PAGASA only), <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% (PAGASA only) 

Intensity colors: <font color="#0CF">Weak TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">Moderate TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">Severe TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 (Minor Hurricane) , <font color="#ffe775">C2 (Moderate Hurricane) , <font color="#ffc140">C3 (Major Hurricane) , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 (Intense Hurricane) , <font color="#ff6060">160-180 mph C5 (Super Hurricane) , <font color="#900">≥185 mph C5 (Cataclysmic Super Hurricane) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin, which is the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired. A percentage that is in-between is never used in such a basin.
 * For other basins that don't have retirement requirements (the vast majority of basins), ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The colors for "weak TS" and "Cataclysmic Super Hurricane" are made up and not part of the official color classification. The "severe TS" color is the same as the "Severe Tropical Storm" color used in basins such as the WPac. The labels "Severe TS" and "Super Hurricane" are at least partially borrowed from the WPac.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.
 * I see you changed almost everything on your retirements. I'd say, this is better than before. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:02, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, thanks! I changed my predictions to be more in-depth and realistic. Of course, new intensity colors were added and "F-" is now "Z". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:03, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

50% or more=italics That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * UPDATE: Obviously Harvey's going. Irma looks likely to be retired as well. We'll see what happens. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:40, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022, early surprises.
 * Cindy - 10% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 4% - 0.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.
 * Emily - 0% - Surprisingly formed, but sorry it's a no. You're not going anywhere.
 * Franklin - 15% - Had notable impacts, but Mexico has seen worse.
 * Gert - 0.1% - That .1% is for being an incredible fishspinner, but to be honest we'll see Gert again in 2023.
 * Harvey - 100% - Now this is the name we will (most likely) not see in 2023. Thought to be a flop, but became a monstrous Category 4 after regenerating and made landfall in Texas at peak intensity. This may be one for the books. This is a storm that looks like a bad combination of Allison, Celia and Carla. At least 3 deaths have been reported so far, and the damage is now estimated to cost $2 billion. I just hope this won't be Texas's Sandy or Katrina, or a worse repeat of Ike. Never mind. This will surely go.
 * Irma - TBA - still active; this is a storm to watch for though.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:46, August 30, 2017 (UTC).)

Owen's Retirement Opinions

 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 20% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists.
 * Emily - 5% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
 * Franklin - 10% - With what data is available, I don't think Franklin is going to be retired. However, if a new report comes out showing significant damage, he could easily get his odds bumped.
 * Gert - 2% - Killed two people and defied the forecasts and became a beautiful C2, but it still won't be enough to be retired.
 * Harvey - 100% - There is no doubt that what could be the costliest natural disaster in US history will be getting the boot.
 * Irma - Extremely likely - Irma's gotta go. Absolute monster, even without US impact I think it could get retired based on what it might do to the islands first. Strongest in basin since Wilma, I'm already calling the retirement of the name. Without any doubt, if Irma hits the U.S. as a major hurricane like some models say it could in the long range, we will be looking at our second retirement candidate and the first instance of 2 retired names in a row since Rita and Stan in 2005. I'll give a proper percentage later on to this after assessing the damage in the islands.
 * Jose - TBA - Expected to be another potential hurricane we can keep an eye on. If Jose swings around back to Florida like Jeanne did in 2004 we could be looking at our third retirement candidate in a row. But until then, Jose is a fish.
 * Katia - TBA - I'm thinking this could be Franklin redux in terms of intensity.

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Leeboy100's Retirement predictions
My turn! Leeboy100 Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene -0%: Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.
 * Bret -1%: Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.
 * Cindy -20%: Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.
 * Don -10% Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons. Update: Lowered chances to 10%. I never did feel too confident with Don being retired in the first place, but due to the fact that after it dissipated it was forgotten almost immediately, and also due to the fact that Harvey and Irma have overshadowed it, I feel even less confident that Don will go. Also, Bill was used (and not retired) in 1997, and at the time Bill Clinton was president.
 * Emily -1%: Minimal impacts.
 * Franklin -2%: Still no exact damage numbers, but it doesn't seem too bad. Thankfully, there were no deaths.
 * Gert -1%: Defied all forecasts by becoming almost a major hurricane. Unfortunately caused two deaths due to rip currents.
 * Harvey - 100%: Damages around $15 billion, with a new damage estimate saying damage is potentially  $160 billion!!  If confirmed, that would shatter Katrina's record. Harvey is gone, without a shadow of a doubt.
 * Irma -TBA: Currently active. Is currently a massive and powerful category 5, and things aren't looking good for islands like Antigua or Puerto Rico, as well as Florida. It's very rare for a category 5 to not get it's name retired, and that likely won't be the case with Irma. It will likely go the way of Joaquin, and Michelle, by having its name retired after it's first use as a replacement.
 * Jose -TBA: Currently active.
 * Katia -TBA: Currently active.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Well, I made mine for the other basins, so why not here?

Well, that's it...for now. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Became the first tropical storm to form in April since 2003's Ana, and it also stands alongside Estelle in the EPac as the most commonly used tropical cyclone name in the NHC's AOR track record, with this being the 11th time Arlene was used since 1959. And because Arlene didn't affect land, we're certainly going to see Arlene used again in 2023.
 * Bret - 1% - Caused minor impacts in the southern lesser antilles, with two deaths reported, and it became one of only 3 June storms in the Atlantic to form in this location, along with Ana '79 and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. But it won't be retired.
 * Cindy - 15% - Somewhat damaging storm for the southeastern U.S, but it likely won't be retired. Cindy is also the second most commonly used Atlantic storm name, after Arlene and tied with Frances (9 uses since 1959), but since Frances was retired, and Cindy won't be, we'll see her on the list for the 10th time in 2023.
 * Don - 1% - Wasn't much different than Bret. I also doubt he'll be removed from the naming lists just because the current U.S. president just so happens to have the same name; if that does happen, I won't count Don as a real retirement (due to impact), just like how I don't count storms like Adolph/Isis/Israel as retired names due to impact, which is what I consider here.
 * Emily - 1% - 96,000 dollars in damage is rather low for a U.S. landfalling TS; couple that with no deaths, and Emily probably won't go.
 * Franklin - 10% - Fortunately, no deaths have been reported from Franklin, unlike how Earl of last year killed over 90 people in Mexico, and damage probably wasn't bad enough for retirement.
 * Gert - 1% - It's a shame that two people were killed from Gert due to rip currents, but otherwise it didn't affect land.
 * Harvey - 100% - If the initial estimates from Accuwather are confirmed, Harvey caused as much as 190 billion dollars in damage to Texas; Texas Governor Greg Abbott said overall damages are likely between 150 billion and 180 billion dollars, considering it took 120 billion to rebuild New Orlenas after Katrina. It's highly likely that Harvey will be the costliest natural disaster in American history, and he will, without question, be retired after this year.
 * Irma - 100% - Still active, but the Caribbean islands of Barbuda, St. Martin, Anguilla, and St. Barthelemy were annihilated by this category 5 monster during the morning of today, September 6. Any damage Irma does to the U.S. down the road will just add insult to injury, the damage it did to the northeastern Lesser Antilles is more than enough to axe this for good.
 * Jose - ?? - Still active, but may be a threat to Bermuda or Atlantic Canada down the road.
 * Katia - ?? - Still active, but may cause flooding in Mexico, we'll see how much it does.

Isaac's predictions
Here's mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:41, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Everyone else - 0%.
 * Harvey - 100% - For the damage so far.

Puffle's prediction party
sorry for the cringey title (Retirement colors: <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) ''' CREDIT TO STEVE FOR COLORS ok go: btw i wasnt rly paying attention until harvey happened

<font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  02:00, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#ff00ff">no% went in a circle and died. the end
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#02c">0.01% is this a joke. barely made landfall but eh.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#04a">1% literally landfalled in the same place as Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#dead40">fish% fish
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#02c">waitwhat% stop with the fails, and how was emily not retired
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#02c">0.01% ok
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#ff00ff">lame% fish
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#C20000">100% HOLY CRUD HARVEY. I PREDICTED THIS TWO YEARS AGO! (Also people are predicting that Harvey will cost more than Katrina.)
 * <font color="#ffc175">Irma : <font color="#02c">Active%


 * Puffle, please give credit to me too because I created the scale colors. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:29, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * And the grades are unnecessary, since it doesn't appear that you are using them... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Adding a color scale for the first time.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F .

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Arlene – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Made April absolutely amazing.
 * Bret – grade  C , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . At least it tried to do something before being sheared to shreds in the graveyard.
 * Cindy – grade  E , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Didn't look that tropical for most of its lifetime.
 * Don – grade  E , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5%  due to the media association with Donald Trump. Otherwise this was pathetic; it gets an E for going above 35 knots.
 * Emily – grade  D , retirement <font color="#FF00FF">10% . It tried, but wasn't particularly memorable.
 * Franklin – grade  B , retirement <font color="#0000FF">20%  for damage. One of a common type of storm that crosses the Yucatan before rapidly developing in the BoC.
 * Gert – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5%  for the two deaths it caused. Really kept us waiting for a while, but eventually became a C2.
 * Harvey – grade  A , retirement <font color="#330000">100% . Powerful C4 that would have been great as a fish, but turned into a flooding nightmare for Texas and Louisiana. Really, did you have to give Houston 50 inches of rain?
 * PTC 10 – grade  F  (and a designation can't be retired). Was tipped to become Irma, but it busted.
 * Irma – currently active.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 15:01, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Jdcomix's predictions
Jdcomix (talk) 02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - Grade A, 0% - Fish storm, but in April. Awesome storm.
 * Bret - Grade C, 5% - You tried. Only chance is if an island country requests this for retirement, which I doubt.
 * Cindy - Grade D, 5% - Near hurricane strength storm in June, so I'll give it some credit for that.
 * Don - Grade E, 10% - Only reason I give this a higher chance of retirement than the others so far is because of the name being the same as the current President, but even that's a stretch. Pathetic storm either way.
 * Emily - Grade D, 5% - Hit Florida with some minor impacts, nothing really to warrant retirement, though.
 * Franklin - Grade B, 10% - Giving this a low chance of retirement because there were surprisingly no deaths in Mexico, unlike Earl last year.
 * Gert - Grade B, 0% - Fish storm, but the first Cat 2 of the year and an at an unusually high latitude.
 * Harvey - Grade A, 100% - Bye felicia!
 * PTC 10 - Grade F, 0% - Can't be retired, would have become Irma but busted
 * Irma, Ongoing. Looks like it'll be retired, though. They'll probably retire it even if it just hits the Leewards.
 * 94L/Jose, Ongoing. Adding this because it has high chances of developing.
 * 95L/Thirteen, Ongoing. Chill out, Atlantic. Same as above.

Dylan's predictions

 * Arlene: 0% - In terms of impacts, this was nothing more than April showers over the open Atlantic, but as only the second purely tropical Atlantic storm ever recorded in the month, this was a welcome surprise.
 * Bret: 5% - Cool to see something so far south so early in the season, but this storm was low on impact, and I'm having a hard time seeing how Bret won't be back in 2023.
 * Cindy: 10% - Standard-issue early-season Gulf Coast TS.
 * Don: 2% - Ryan said it best, though should Don get the boot for political reasons, I'll second the calls in for my name to take its place ;) (I must admit that I blushed a bit when I saw them — thanks, fellas!)
 * Emily: 2% - Surprise formation, meager effects.
 * Franklin: 15% - That death toll (or lack thereof) is a very pleasant surprise. This gets as high as 15% from me because I don't buy the idea of a hurricane of any strength hitting Mexico without dealing some extent of damage.
 * Gert: 1% - For the rip current fatalities. Cool storm to watch, otherwise.
 * Harvey: 100% - There's no logical way it won't happen.
 * Irma: Still active, fingers crossed this ultimately steers clear of land...

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Rah's predictions!
blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 16:31, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 0%, cool to watch her progress, especilly being all that far up north and the fact she was about in April, but see you in 2023!
 * Bret: 1%, Not sufficient/notable enough to warrant retirement.
 * Cindy: 5%, Ditto. Made landfall in the same place as Harv though. Forgettable storm.
 * Don: 2%, Ditto, but I don't see him going just because of all the Trump memes/media attention this storm got. SAD!
 * Emily: 2%, Ditto, just forgettable.
 * Frankie: 10%, Clumsy, caused a bit of damage but the good thing is that he was kind; no deaths! Just be careful next time, eh?
 * Gert: 5%, Knocked at my window when she arrived in Europe but apart from the surfing deaths, she wasn't that notable.
 * Harvey: 100%, THIS WILL BE GOING, NO DOUBT, UNLESS THE NHC IS ON A HIGH/ON DRUGS/DRUNK. 
 * Irma: 100%, DITTO! THIS MEGA-MONSTROUS STORM IS DOWN IN THE HISTORY BOOKS! THERE'S NO WAY THIS WOMAN IS COMING BACK! SAY HELLO TO IMOGEN 2023!
 * Jose: IDK%, too early to tell, but maybe Fabian/Nicole 2.
 * Kat: IDK%, too early to tell, but probably Frankie 2.

Potentially for Don
Since Don has a fairly decent chance to go, I've set up some replacement names for him:


 * Dylan
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Drake
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dexter
 * Drew
 * Darren
 * Daryl

Post below which two names you like. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:58, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I personally don't find Don's removal likely just because he has the same name as the U.S. president, but if he is removed for that reason, I'd like him to be replaced with Dylan. :) Also, add Darren and Daryl to those list of names. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with you Ryan. If this were to replace with Dylan, he will probably freak out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * I was going to make this comment earlier, but I will just post it here. Pardon my tone, but in my opinion, it is unlikely that Don will be retired simply because it happens to have a similar name as an incumbent U.S. president. Previous presidents and other prominent American political figures have had their names added on the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists without objection. For example, the name Georges was left on Atlantic List II despite President George H.W. Bush being head of state at the time and a presidential candidate for that year. Additionally, Bill, Madeline, Hilary, and Alberto were all used in a span of four years in lieu of potential connotations with notable Clinton administration figures (the Commander-in-Chief himself (whose birthday is today, August 19), Secretary Albright, the First Lady, and Vice President Gore, respectively). More recently, Ike and Laura were the chosen replacement names after the 2002 season, even though the former is a nickname for a former American president and the latter was the name of the wife of then president George W. Bush. Also, if we are going to remove Don, why not remove Michael, the (formal) name of our current vice president as well?
 * Nevertheless, here are five additional potential replacement names should Don be removed:


 * Dusty
 * Dominic
 * Draco (Any Harry Potter fans?)
 * Dante
 * Devan


 * Also, I would consider removing Drew from your replacement name list, as some may find that name too similar to Andrew. I hope this helps!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:42, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I find it only likely that Don would be removed along with the name of Hilary. I don't think they would remove one and not remove the other. Nonetheless, my three replacement name candidates would be Dylan, Drew, or Doug. Obviously, it would be cool to see Dylan's name get added to the naming list like my name got added onto the list last year to replace Otto, or Drew being added to the list for Andrew to have a name to associate with. Doug (third preference) is also an option. Yes, the name Douglas is on the EPAC list but that hasn't stopped them from using "Frank" and "Franklin, "Daniel" and "Danny" or even "Juliette" and "Julia". Also, the name "Frederic" had been retired and the name "Fred" had appeared on the naming list years later, so yeah, like Doug, it's a possibility and can't be ruled out. All three of those names are great options. Owen 07:42, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

I doubt that this will receive that treatment. But if it does, why not Dylan? 😝 Other names in Ryan and Andrew's list are also quite fitting. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

For Harvey
Don has no chance of being retired this discussion is silly. Harvey hasn't made landfall yet but pretty sure he is going to be retired so lets make some H names. Thoughts? Any interesting ones I missed? --Whiplash (talk) 18:30, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hannibal
 * Hans
 * Hadrian
 * Handel
 * Hank
 * Harper - Personally would rather see this used for a girls name although it can be used for either.
 * Harris/Harrison
 * Hayden
 * Heath
 * Heinrich
 * Helmut
 * Henrik
 * Herb/Herbert
 * Horacio
 * Howard/Howie
 * Huey
 * Hugh
 * Hunter - Hurricane hunters chasing Hurricane Hunter lol...
 * Hyacinth - My personal fave


 * Howard was used in the Eastern Pacific last year. :/ It'll be used again in 2022, so that's out. I'd also add Harold and Henry to those names as possible replacements (note: Henri from list 1 is pronounced "ahn-ree", not "Hen-ree" so they're not as confusing as they seem despite being one letter apart). Ryan1000 19:31, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd like to see the names Heath or Hugh, but those are too similar sounding to Keith and Hugo. My best pick would be Herman or Herbert. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:44, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Herman might be confusing with Hernan, which was on the 2014 EPac list and is scheduled for 2020. Ryan1000 19:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My best picks will be Harry, Howie, Herbert, Hans, Hank or Hal. Harley will be okay, but it reminds me of Harley Quinn instead. Maybe even Hannibal, Hubert (kinda similar to Humberto though), Homer, Huey or Hayden. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My top three picks are Hayden, Harris, and Hank. Hadrian is kinda similar to Adrian though (which is on our current list for the EPac). Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 02:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Two french names I didn't think about... Honore and Hilaire. Both of which are boys names. --Whiplash (talk) 14:39, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I've always felt like Hank would be one of the first H names that the NHC would go with. It does seem like a name they'd choose. So, that's my pick. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would prefer a name that doesn't sound too/very old-fashioned. I'd prefer something more modern or timeless. I would not like that AT ALL. This naming list already sounds so old-fashioned and dated (is anyone even called "Gert" these days??) Anyway, here are my suggestions for possible "H" replacement names, since my instincs tell me Harvey is DEFO getting the boot:


 * Habib
 * Hackett
 * Haddon
 * Hadley
 * Hadrian
 * Hafiz
 * Hagan
 * Hakim
 * Hakan
 * Hal
 * Haines
 * Haile
 * Hagley
 * Hallam
 * Halstead
 * Hampton
 * Hardy
 * Hardik
 * Harald
 * Harley
 * Henrik
 * Helmut
 * Hendy
 * Henning
 * Henley
 * Hiroshi
 * Hilton
 * Homer (LOL)
 * Hopinks
 * Howie (oldish but okay I guess)
 * Hunter (HURRICANE HUNTER IS STRIKING FLORIDA can you imagine THAT being on the headlines? kek)
 * Hussain
 * Hyatt
 * Hymen
 * Hyde
 * Herrick
 * Huey
 * Hurst
 * Henrietto (LOL)
 * Henriettus (ANOTHER LOL)
 * Henriettito (HAHA KEK)
 * I must admit that H names for boys are quite old-fashioned with very little space for more modern names but I kept my list more "classic" I guess. HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 22:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

My top 3 name replacement candidates for Harvey would be Harry, Harold, and Hunter. I think Hunter would be the most likely name to be chosen. Owen 05:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't think they would choose Hunter though. People might confuse it with hurricane hunters. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

If it's hans atlantic is frozen confirmed Hal is the best name for a Harvey replacement. Hurricane Hal, I love it <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Harrison is my pick. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:44, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Going to go with Hans, Homer, or Hunter (which would be really funny). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:29, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

If we had a Hurricane Horton...who would hear it?12.144.5.2 14:34, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Don't think Hunter will be chosen though. :P Anyways, I like Hannibal (sounds epic), Harris(on), Herbert and Hyacinth. Hardy, Habib, Halstead, Hampton, Harley, Henley, Hilton, Hyde, Herrick and Huey are fine as well. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

For Irma
We all know Harvey is going to be retired, but Irma is starting to look like a strong retirement candidate as well, assuming it manages to reach Florida as a formidable major hurricane, on top of potential devastation in the northeastern Caribbean islands. So, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Irma, assuming it causes enough impact down the road? Here's a few of my suggestions:

What are your thoughts? Ryan1000 07:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ian(n)a
 * Iara
 * Idette
 * Inga
 * Ilsa
 * Idina
 * Ivy
 * Idona
 * Idra
 * Isha
 * Ignacia
 * Ila
 * Isa
 * Iora


 * Irina, Ivy, Isa or Inga are my picks. Ilsa sounds like Elsa (which replaced Erika). Ignacia can also be used, though it is similar to Ignacio (which is being used in EPac). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * My pick to replace Irma will be Ivy. Owen 08:44, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Added Isa. Ignacia is close to Ignacio, though we saw Martin replace Matthew earlier this year while a variation of Martin (Marty) was in the EPac, so Ignacia and Ignacio being used simultaneously isn't comletely out of the question. Ryan1000 08:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Inga was used in 1961 and 1969, the latter of which was the third-longest lasting TC in the North Atlantic basin. My suggestions are Ilana and Iora, though my personal favourite is Ivy (even though it's already been used 11 times in the WPac and five more times in the SHem). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:27, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Take note that Irma was also used in the WPac for a number of storms, including a C5 in 1971 and a strong C4 in 1981 that killed hundreds in the Philippines (it wasn't retired after that though). So if it seems that (as if) NHC got Irma from the WPac lists, then why not Ivy? However, Irma was used in 1978 in the Atlantic; following that pattern, Inga can be a possible candidate as replacement for Irma. Then again, NHC is somehow leaning towards names that are more current/timely (or even trendy), i.e. Elsa for Erika, Julian for Joaquin, Imelda for Ingrid, Sara for Sandy, Ian for Igor, Martin for Matthew, Owen for Otto, etc. Anyway, this is just in preparation for the impacts of Irma in the northern Lessers & the rest of the Antilles (and eventually U.S.), who knows, Irma might change her mind and turn away from land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hmmm. Ike......? Stacy54

Lol. That made me laugh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I like Idina. It adds to the recent trend of Frozen themed names, lol. Jdcomix (talk) 14:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Isa, Ivy, and Iara are my picks.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:33, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Maybe I'll choose Ivy, Isa, Iora, or Irina. Ilsa sounds too similar to Elsa (to be used in 2021). We are kinda running out of "I" names due to the curse... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Ivy was retired as a typhoon name after a very strong one.Doesn't retiring a name in one basin and then using it in another sort of defeat the purpose?12.144.5.2 15:57, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Some extra names to consider, I personally am a big fan of the next name being Ivy or Inga since Inga has already been used before and not retired.


 * Ibolya - Fairly common female Hungarian name somewhat popular as a landed immigrant name as well.
 * Iggy - Usually thought of this as a male name but there are a few female instances of it too (Iggy Azalea).
 * Ilse
 * Iman
 * Immaculata
 * Imogene
 * Indira
 * Innocence
 * Irina
 * Isla - This has been an increasingly popular name lately.
 * Ivana/Ivanka - (Make a Trump themed list. ;))
 * Ixia
 * Izzy

Again I am rooting for Ivy as the next I name. (If we can use mythological names as well then Io would also possibly be on this list.) --Whiplash (talk) 16:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I am going for either Ivy or Imogen. In my opinion, Ivana is too close to Ivan. Izzy is a variant of Isabel. I also would pick Iola, Idette, or even Inga. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12, that's not unheard of; in the Atlantic, Celia, Dora, and Hilda were all retired on the old naming lists and all 3 of those names are in use in the Eastern Pacific today, though none have been retired since. Also, Typhoon Ike was retired after 1984 and Ike was chosen to replace Isidore in 2002 (but was axed on his first usage in 2008), so it's not impossible for a name to be retired in one basin and used again in another. That has also happened with a number of SHem storms, though I can't name them all. Ryan1000 23:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I bet the NHC would choose some lame oldish name such as Harold or Hank to replace Harvey. I wouldn't want that. I'd prefer Harper. As for Irma, I very much want the replacement name to be Imogen. I quite like Henriette's suggestions, by the way! Why didn't anyone comment? I'd pick one from her list! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
Surprised no one added this section yet, but so far we've had Arlene, her TCR came out two months ago. Anyone have thoughts on what we might see post-season? Ryan1000 15:53, September 6, 2017 (UTC)