Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/November

November
Is here, but I think the season's over anyways. I think any chance we had of running the list is completely gone now. Ryan1000 10:54, November 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not so sure. The conditions for development isn't really all that bad in comparison to last year. Dr. Jeff Masters at Wunderground says that there is a 70% chance of another TC this year. But yeah, we aren't getting to Alpha this year. Yqt1001 00:26, November 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * IMO, getting Sean still isn't out of the question, but getting Tammy, Vince, Whitney, and the Greeks probably are. Andrew444 01:00, November 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Currently the Atlantic is basically a wasteland. Nothing is expected in the next 48 hours, and based on what i'm seeing, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't have one for some time, if we ever will. We will not have an ending as rapid as 2005 or 2001 though. Having a 3-5 storm November-December here is pretty much impossible. I agree, I wouldn't be surprised if we get Sean, but anything past that is out of the question IMO. Ryan1000 01:22, November 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hey guys, it is former OWEN2011. I have a new username of HurricaneOwen99 and I created a new wiki, Awesome Hurricane Wiki. Anyway, I think 2011 is over if it already isn't already. HurricaneOwen99 00:42, November 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the season's over already.10'Q.'INVEST 01:18, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over South Carolina
This extra tropical low is the one that models have stalling over warm waters, slightly deepening and becoming subtropical in about 3 days. Sean maybe? Yqt1001 20:55, November 4, 2011 (UTC)

What? There's no AOI on NHC as far as i'm concerned...(it might have just been deactivated). And even so, although I wouldn't be surprised if we have Sean, I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the ned of the season. There are some thunderstorms near the Caribbean right now, but nothing is cyclonic amongst those storms, and everywhere else in the NHem has shut down as well(except NIO, but they won't get more than 1-2 more storms this month as SHem warms up). Ryan1000 23:22, November 4, 2011 (UTC)

I don't think this would become tropica, but I still think this could become subtropical over this week. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  00:02, November 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's not an AOI officially, but it has decent potential (for this time of the year at the very least). Yqt1001 00:33, November 5, 2011 (UTC)

It's an official AOI now! 10%. Yqt1001 05:55, November 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's going to be heading into warm waters over the next couple of days as it heads out to sea, but wind shear is going to get worse by then. This storm has a better chance to become subtropical storm Sean rather than tropical storm Sean IMO because it has a cold-core center, and I think it will maintain that as it heads seaward. Ryan1000 13:44, November 6, 2011 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Well, NHC has high hopes in this system. I guess it's because subtropical storms are not affected by shear and dry air as much. Still at 10%, but subtropical transitions are pretty quick once the low gets going. However, if this does become a subtropical storm, it should no doubt be immediately upgraded to Sean, as right now it has 50mph winds according to the NHC. Yqt1001 15:01, November 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not just the NHC, I have high hopes in this system too. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  16:14, November 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * 20%. Yqt1001 00:04, November 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30% --88.102.101.245 11:45, November 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 40%. It actually is expected to recurve back and hit North Carolina or so in the next few days, if not near the outer banks and head out to sea. Also, our next storm in WPac(Washi) is in the making out of 24W. Ryan1000 11:58, November 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Once the transition starts they transition pretty quickly. 60%. Yqt1001 20:05, November 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'd be surprised if we don't get Sean here, but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't get tropical storm Sean here. NHC says there is a 60% chance of it becoming a subtropical storm in the next two days, so it may be a late-season form of Andrea. Ryan1000 20:39, November 7, 2011 (UTC)

70%. Yqt1001 23:41, November 7, 2011 (UTC)

Even if it does become Sean, not much is expected out of 98L. Only a 35-40 knot peak, and living as long as Jose or Gert. It may affect Canada(Nova Scotia) as an extratropical storm, but i'm not expecting anything special here, other than the first use of the name. Ryan1000 00:34, November 8, 2011 (UTC)

This one's a little more fun than Jose. Jose was tiny and came out of nowhere. This one we've been able to kind of follow. Before this year, we'd never had back to back seasons of at least 16 named storms and now we're looking at possibly back to back seasons of at least 18 named storms. That's amazing. -- SkyFury 04:46, November 8, 2011 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Sean
Hey Sean! So glad to see ya! How the hell are ya? -- SkyFury 08:06, November 8, 2011 (UTC)

I was expecting this, but it shouldn't be long-lived or strong anyways. This being said, it looks like we now have the first time with two consecutive years reaching 19 named storms(well, if you count SAtl's Arani; last year had 20 with Anita). And Sean is 19L, not 18L... Remember TD 10 never became named. Ryan1000 08:10, November 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Enh, he can hang out with us for a few days until the front gets here. 18 storms, wow. What a wild couple of years it's been. Thank you, btw, for fixing that stupid header. This new format drives me nuts sometimes. -- SkyFury 08:18, November 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, you can press enter on the below header(01M.ROLF(still doubtful IMO)) to go down one row, and then you can put the heading just above there and change its size to heading 2,3,4,5, or normal after you highlight it and go to the format box above where you edit. And BTW, Sean is subtropical... Didn't quite catch that on the latest advisory. Ryan1000 08:21, November 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * So is Sean maybe like Shary it could become a hurricane but even that is not probable Allanjeffs 12:14, November 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Before we ask ourselves if this will become a hurricane we should probrably think about whether or not it will even become tropical. It still looks like a subtropical storm to me, but that could change as soon as tomorrow. Ryan1000 15:06, November 8, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sean
Now its tropical. Major Hurricane Kiewii 18:43, November 8, 2011 (UTC)

Sean looks pretty good. Reminds me a little bit more of Ana from April, 2003 than it reminds me of Shary from last year. I know Shary took us all by surprise last year by strengthening into a hurricane, but I don't think that's going to happen this time. Sean doesn't have as much time to work with as Shary did. I know Bermuda has issued a tropical storm watch, but I really don't think this will affect them much. Maybe some rough surf. The surfers will be very excited. -- SkyFury 18:55, November 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * 50mph winds now. Expected to get to 65mph now. Yqt1001 21:07, November 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree, i'm not expecting a hurricane out of this. However, I think Sean is pretty much the end of the season. After he dies, we're done for good, i'm sure. It will hang on a little bit more before it becomes picked up by the front this Thursday or Friday. And somehow, the storms in NIO and WPAc still haven't become named... Ryan1000 23:01, November 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * The WPAC storm dissipated, it was never a TS. Also note that JTWC has no authority to name storms. That right rests with the local RSMCs; in the case of the Arabian Sea, the IMA's office in Delhi. -- SkyFury 23:31, November 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It still looks subtropical to me. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  00:44, November 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will get one more name storm in the carribean and that will be the last one also some models are develping a low thre next week Allanjeffs 03:03, November 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, not all hybrid looking storms are indeed hybrid storms (ex: TSLee from earlier this year is a good example). This storm fits the definition of tropical perfectly, and is starting to develop deep convective banding right now... Yqt1001 04:58, November 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I still don't think it will become a hurricane, but still, if anything, we could peak at Tammy. However, this season won't be getting the greeks, i'm sure. And Eric, It's called IMD, not IMA. Ryan1000 10:12, November 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Expected to become a hurricane tomorrow. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  20:45, November 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yup, 65mph now. Incredibly impressive at how favourable this area of the ATL has been this
 * year..like 5 out of 7 hurricanes (if Sean becomes one) have intensified/became a hurricane here? Yqt1001 20:51, November 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * I knew this system have a chance of becoming a hurricane like shary of last year and they also have in common that they start with letter SAllanjeffs 21:06, November 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * If we get Tammy, it will be the first time we have ever had two back-to-back seasons with 19 named storms. It's a record as it is to see 18 storms for two straight years. That's incredible. However, don't gurantee that just yet. It does have some organized convection with it, but it's not really thick. Even if it does become a hurricane, it will not get past C1(75-80 mph) anyways. I'm not sure if Sean has capped off the season, but we'll see. Ryan1000 21:11, November 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Sean looks amazing, wow! Look at that eye! That's awesome. I did not expect it to get this strong. The window for Sean to become a hurricane is small, but I think he can pull it off. Looking at probably sometime tomorrow morning. Window probably closes by sundown tomorrow. This has gotten fun. -- SkyFury 21:17, November 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * HH's are flying into Sean tomorrow. Yqt1001 00:06, November 10, 2011 (UTC)

HH's found 65mph winds. Sean better hurry up if he wants to be a hurricane. Yqt1001 20:07, November 10, 2011 (UTC)

He's making that northeastward turn now. He might have missed his chance already, but he still has that eyelike structure with him so we could see him strengthening a bit more as he heads northeastward. He might have already missed his chance, but he's not done with us yet. 04A is though. And we don't really need the (01M) and (01Q) headers with Arani and Rolf in their archives... Ryan1000 21:47, November 10, 2011 (UTC)

Take that back... Sean rescently fell apart. The eyelike structure of Sean has gone now. Now I can tell he won't become a hurricane. Post-season analysis might change that though... But it looks like Sean just got screwed over. Terribly. Ryan1000 22:17, November 10, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">I still think he was a hurricane yesterday mawbe we will se an upgrade post season or to 70mphAllanjeffs 02:26, November 11, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I wouldn't be surprised if he is upgraded to a C1 in post-season, but either way, he should die out this afternoon or evening. I think Sean might have capped off the Atlantic hurricane season. Ryan1000 13:23, November 11, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Sean is starting to enter extratropical transition. Likely to be post tropical shortly. Winds are down to 50mph. Yqt1001 21:30, November 11, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">models are developing another system in the middle of the atlantic next week so we could have Tammy and if the southern carribean produce one more we will get until vince but we will see if that happens Allanjeffs 21:48, November 11, 2011 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sean
<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">He's down and out. Incredibly, some models predict 2 more storms in the next 5 days. We'll see how true they are though! Yqt1001 02:47, November 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">that line i have always love down and out and we will se if we get Tammy and Vince would be a very amazing finale if that is true Allanjeffs 03:02, November 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">I still think were done for the season. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  14:01, November 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">We might see a storm or two again this month, but I still don't think we will run the table and get the greeks. And the ACE still sucks, especially for a season with this many storms. Ryan1000 14:58, November 12, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Central Atlantic
<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">This probably will become Tammy. 10%. Yqt1001 23:54, November 17, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Yeah!! I knew there was potential for one more or two name storms they will probably be fish storms if they ever form though Allanjeffs 00:13, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This storm is rather big and broad, and it will most likely become a weak TS and head out to sea like most of the other storms this year did. But who would know we could tie last year's activity? Ryan1000 07:41, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Wait... it looked like 2011 was over with Sean, and now there's a chance we could see our fourth 'T' named storm ever? Wow! Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 13:06, November 18, 2011 (UTC)<span style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; margin-top: 3px; margin-right: 1px; margin-bottom: 3px; margin-left: 1px; background-color: transparent; background-image: url(http://images1.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb45139/common/extensions/wikia/EditPageLayout/images/sprite-edit-page.png); display: inline-block; height: 32px; width: 48px; background-position: -939.5px 5.5px; background-repeat: no-repeat no-repeat; ">

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Models are making this a hurricane but I will not say nothing until it forms into a tropical storm if ever Allanjeffs 23:07, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">BTW 20% Allanjeffs 23:45, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">This AOI is awfuly broad. It spans hundreds of miles right now, and if it can't get a concentrated circulation, we won't see it develop so much. It will be picking up the cold front this weekend, so it doesn't have much of a chance of developing until then. This AOI better get on with it right now. Ryan1000 06:21, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">ALL models have this hitting the UK. 01F.KIEWII 13:46, November 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * Any thoughts on this being like Hurricane Faith? Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  16:38, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">I'm not even sure if this thing will become named. It's just too broad. It still hasn't gotten its act together and it doesn't look like it will; shear is continuing to pick up. We could easily be looking at Kenneth in EPac though. Ryan1000 19:45, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">30% now. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  23:37, November 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * There's an official low pressure area now..90L is coming. Yqt1001 00:07, November 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Models are developing two storms of this if that happen we would have Tammy and vince we would just need one more storm to run the table Allanjeffs 04:41, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40% now. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  06:21, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's almost amazing at how these storms just don't stop climbing the percentages once they start. Tammy as early as tomorrow seems possible. Yqt1001 06:27, November 20, 2011 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Now invested, TCFA issued. 01F.KIEWII 09:52, November 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now that's more like it. Now I would be surprised if we don't get him, but earlier I was thinking he was too broad. Either way, he should just become a minimal tropical storm and head out to sea, like most of the other storms this season have done. I don't know if this will cap off the season, but i'm still pretty sure this year won't get to Alpha. Ryan1000 14:19, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 50%. Tammy is coming... Yqt1001 15:42, November 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Its a women name the next in the list Ryan and probably I say it will peak at 60 to 65 mph tropical or subtropical stormAllanjeffs 19:19, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, forgot about that. But anyways, other than becoming named, i'm not expecting much out of this storm. Kenneth is in EPac as well, looks like we're back into gear in the tropics. Ryan1000 21:21, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now this is an interesting one. It seems to be progressively getting better organized and I see no reason why that can't continue. It'd be cool if we could make it to the 'T' storm in back to back years. Looks like the tropics have one last hurah for us with Kenneth in the Pacific and 99L in the Atlantic, both surprises for this time of year. A nice way to finish the season. -- SkyFury 21:53, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC is starting to doubt if it will be a cyclone or not. "A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE FRONTAL IN NATURE RATHER THAN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL...OR MORE LIKELY SUBTROPICAL...CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH" (sorry about the bolding, it's failing on me <_< ) Yqt1001 23:54, November 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now 60%. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  13:08, November 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/storm-center-blog/sfl-2011-gains-a-hurricane-and-storm-20111121,0,2522369.story
 * Really looks like a frontal system now. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:30, November 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * If this form it would have been name vince as most of you know 94l was upgrade to a tropical storm by NHC so right now we are at 19/7/3 if you wat information of the new storm you can read it here

Allanjeffs 02:50, November 22, 2011 (UTC) <p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">I had the feeling 94L had been a TS briefly, but it was short-lived and weak anyways, probrably tied Franklin in ACE. But all that matters is now we tied 2010. Who could've called it. Back to back seasons of 19 named storms. That's amazing. And Kenneth is exploding as we speak. It's already a C2 and counting, and could be the strongest November hurricane on record later today, not to mention this storm could become Tammy itself. It's still at 60%. We're just not quitting in the tropics. Ryan1000 03:39, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * OCEANSAT pass proves that 99L isn't frontal and could still become subtropical.. Yqt1001 13:18, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%; it is frontal now. Yqt1001 13:18, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now off NHC. I guess we capped off this season with 19 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes after all. EPac was just as impressive as ATL was ACEwise, or will be when Kenneth dissipates, so I guess it's fair to say we can say goodbye to 2011 for good. Ryan1000 01:01, November 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not so quickly. 99L still has a chance to develop. Winds are now at 45 mph, and central pressure is at 1004 mb. 01F.KIEWII 01:04, November 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nah, it's frontal now. It probrably won't develop from here on out. Ryan1000 16:20, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">99L is back in the TWO. 01F.KIEWII 00:18, November 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * But it's 0%. Cyclone10 Contributions  02:00, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * BUT, it's also almost over the Azores, and it's late November, and it actually has a chance. Amazing really. Yqt1001 02:03, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Damned edit conflicts! >:( Anyways, although it's over the Azores, NHC still says environmental conditions are becoming more unfavorable and it has a better chance of dying down further than becoming Tammy. Ryan1000 02:06, November 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Central pressure at 995 mb, winds at 60 mph...per ATCF. 01F.KIEWII 02:05, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Storms over the Azores can jump up suddenly and can become named storms at any given moment. NHC almost always goes conservative, as do I, and although it's at near 0%, given the looks 99L has on sattelite imagery, I wouldn't be surprised if we do have Tammy come from this. Ryan1000 02:14, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Technically this has no chance to develop, but it's an interesting system. One thing, it's November, climatologically there isn't much to support a STC anymore. Second is, it's over 20C water, which is too cold to support much more than a polar low. Since it's a frontal system, it has a huge amount of shear associated with it. However on the other side, shear and dry air does not need to be too low for a subtropical storm to develop. The air surrounding 99L is cold, so the water doesn't have to be as cold to be able to support a STC (as shown with Sean nearly becoming a hurricane over Vince-cold waters). The system is a front, and fronts can be able to spin up storms quickly (though I believe that is because of the temperature gradient within them). So we'll see. Reality speaking, this is late November near Europe, anything even remotely close to tropical shouldn't be expected. However, this is 2011, anything that can happen should be expected! Yqt1001 03:22, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC's giving up:

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS APROACHING THE AZORES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Cyclone10 Contributions  05:50, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">And now gone from NHC. Perhaps Tammy won't be coming after all. The season is pretty much done. Ryan1000 21:29, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: SW Caribbean
<p style="margin-left: 40px">something happening in the carribean in my opinionAllanjeffs 01:25, November 25, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">This thing has pretty much been knocked out. BTW, last I checked, the stuff in the Caribbean is just a bunch of thunderstorms here and there. Nothing cyclonic is there and not much is expected out of them. I'm pretty sure 2011 is over, at least for NHem. Ryan1000 02:02, November 25, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">THE ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON...AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOONAL GYRE APPEARS TO SLOWLY BECOMING ORGANIZED. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 16N W OF 71W. ALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A SPECIFIC LOCATION FOR A LOW LEVEL CENTER...COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THIS REGION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL BASINS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS told you something was happening here RyanAllanjeffs 18:23, November 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Moving this to a new section. Otherwise, this is pretty much a replica of last years 94L.INVEST. Yqt1001 20:20, November 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * What? This area of thunderstorms is getting torn up as we speak. I'd be stunned if it develops signifigantly, or at all. And we don't need to put the post like that. It's fine just being normal. Ryan1000 01:39, November 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, that system is barely showing up on infrared satellite. But hopefully it will form. Cyclone10 Contributions  02:14, November 26, 2011 (UTC)