Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools. 10L.NONAME 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
TCFA.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:04, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12W
Now 12W.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:19, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Haikui
Hello Haikui. Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:07, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Eww JTWC. Hey Haikui of the Danelia family, welcome to the world :P atomic 77 32

Welcome back, Atomic. And hello Haikui. Likely will head for China, but then recurve towards Japan/South Korea at the last minute. Ryan1000 14:35, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Haikui's making landfall in 5 days :| Cyclone10  E-Mail  20:58, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Typhoon Haikui
Expected to recurve while inland.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:04, August 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * 200,000 people are evacuated in Shanghai. Cyclone10 E-Mail  18:54, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Flooding is a huge concern with this storm. It's been stalling over China for days, and the results probrably won't look good. Ryan1000 18:05, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Haikui
It's gone now. Tons of damage in Philippines.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:03, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Subtropical and heading eastward.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:05, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13W
Another fish.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:54, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 13W
JMA has issued the last advisory :O Cyclone10  E-Mail  03:57, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kirogi
Has been named by JMA and JTWC. No strengthening is forecast as it will move over colder water. 65.34.84.50 17:26, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kirogi
Weakening. Cyclone10 E-Mail  04:10, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Kirogi
Gone. Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:08, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
I think this is what's left of 91C. TCFA and heading northeastward.... Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:42, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Back to CPHC's responsibility. Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:52, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

14W.KAI-TAK
A new invest.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:07, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14W (Helen)
New depression, PAGASA have already named it Helen. They take it between the Philippines and Taiwan &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:43, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

Likely to head towards Taiwan and China as a tropical storm or typhoon over the next few days. Ryan1000 18:18, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kai-tak
Hi Kai-tak. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:12, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like Kai-Tak may pull a Saola. Simlover123 (talk) 03:03, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

I take this on a westward track, towards Hong Kong (where it might hit the site of Kai-Tak Airport). But it will likely recurve towards Taiwan. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:05, August 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * I have Kai-tak making landfall in China, and dissipate inland. Isaac829 E-Mail  13:07, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Here's my predictions: Isaac829 E-Mail  04:34, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths.
 * Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass.
 * Mawar - <10% - Not so much damage created.
 * Ambo - 5% - Probably not.
 * Guchol - 35% - 27 deaths and evacs, but Talas didn't retired last year, so this shouldn't either.
 * Butchoy - 0% - Didn't/barely affect(ed) the Philippines.
 * Talim - 15% - Only some crops.
 * Carina - 0% - No.
 * Doksuri - 40% - Not that much.
 * Dindo - 30% - Not sure that's enough to make the name retire.
 * Khanun - 50% - Lots of damage in DPRK.
 * Enteng - 0% - No effects.
 * Vicente - 45% - Less damage than I thought.
 * Ferdie - 30% - Wasn't that bad.
 * Saola - 60% - Quite some damage.
 * Gener - 20% - Maybe.
 * Damrey - 45% - See Vicente.
 * Haikui - 80% - Lots of damage in the Philippines, yet so far away. And the damage in China.
 * Kirogi - 0% - No impacts at all.
 * Kai-tak - ?


 * Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC)

Mine:

JMA: PAGASA:
 * 1) Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme.
 * 2) Sanvu - 0% - No.
 * 3) Mawar - 1% - I doubt it.
 * 4) Guchol - 5% - Yes, there were some effects, but not that bad.
 * 5) Talim - 10% - Another possible one, but not that likely.
 * 6) Doksuri - 25% - More damaging then Talim, so it has a possible chance.
 * 7) Khanun - 3% - South Korea might consider this damaging, but I don't.
 * 8) Vincente - 40% - A scare for Hong Kong, but it could've been much worse.
 * 9) Soala - 30% - Hit me in China, but outshadowed by Damrey and Haikui.
 * 10) Damrey - 45% - Also hit me, but Haikui has a better chance of going.
 * 11) Haikui - 90% - Damaged my relative's houses, combined with its other damage, yes.
 * 12) Kirogi - 0% - See Sanvu's section.
 * 13) Kai-tak - TBA - I want to see this hit Kai-Tak Airport's site, but Taiwan is the word.
 * 1) Ambo - 2% - Some effects, but the Philippines has seen much worse.
 * 2) Butchoy - 0% - Had no effects.
 * 3) Carina - 0% - No Cosme here.
 * 4) Dindo - 4% - I still doubt dindo will go.
 * 5) Enteng - 0% - Had no Philippine effects.
 * 6) Ferdie - 2% - Minor Philippine effects.
 * 7) Gener - 1% - Some moderate effects in the Philippines.
 * 8) Helen - TBA

-- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine:

JMA: PAGASA: - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:53, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 1% - Very little chance.
 * Sanvu - 0% - No.
 * Mawar - 0% - No chance.
 * Guchol - 20% - Has small chances of retirement.
 * Talim - 0% - I doubt it.
 * Doksuri - 5% - I don't think so.
 * Khanun - 60% - Lots of damage and deaths in DPRK, maybe a candidate for retirement. I didn't expect that to happen though.
 * Vicente - 50% - Wow, shocked me a lot when intensified to a Category 4, but has less damage. Though damage is considerably light as of now, China or Hong Kong may request Vicente to be retired. So it's a 50/50 for me.
 * Saola - 35% - Moderate damage in Taiwan and the Philippines, so there is a very slim chance that Saola may be retired.
 * Damrey - 10% - I don't think so.
 * Haikui - 85% - Philippines: severely affected; China: also affected; so, there's a very big chance of retirement for Haikui.
 * Kirogi - 0% - No land areas affected.
 * Kai-tak - ? - Still active.
 * Ambo - 0% - No.
 * Butchoy - 0% - I really doubt it.
 * Carina - 0% - No damage in the Philippines. A fish.
 * Dindo - 0% - I don't think so, another fish.
 * Enteng - 0% - Barely affected the Philippines.
 * Ferdie - 0% - Not that much damage.
 * Gener - 30% - Maybe? But damages and deaths were not as high as compared to the previous storms that affected the islands.
 * Helen - ? - Still active.

Well, now that we have quite a few storms, here's mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Impressive season thus far, but not as bad as it could've been, especially with Vicente. The Philippines were much luckier than last year, that's for sure. Ryan1000 02:44, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 5% - Nothing too severe.
 * Sanvu - 0% - Not a chance.
 * Mawar - 0% - As with Sanvu.
 * Guchol - 10% - I won't say it did nothing, but if Talas wasn't retired last year for 73 deaths and 600 million in damage, Guchol doesn't stand a chance.
 * Talim - 0% - Nah.
 * Doksuri - 1% - Won't say it was a complete fish, but still no retirement here.
 * Khanun - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Vicente - 55% - It was destructive and it has a shot of retirement, but the thing that shocks me most about Vicente is how much worse it could've been. This was probrably the closest call China has seen in a long time.
 * Saola - 25% - Caused some flooding in Taiwan, but not extremely bad.
 * Damrey - 10% - This ended up being interesting for China, but at least it missed Shanghai and overall damage wasn't too severe.
 * Haikui - 85% - Another storm for China, and by golly, what a storm. I never knew it was this bad. This thing sat over China for several days, and although only 19 or so people died, 2 billion dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This thing has a serious chance of retirement, and also the only storm named Haikui, having replaced 2005's Longwang.
 * Kirogi - 0% - What's that now?
 * Kai-Tak - ?? - Nothing to say for this one yet.
 * Ambo - 1% - Not very likely to happen.
 * Butchoy - 0% - Hardly any damage in the Philippines.
 * Carina -No damage to the islands.
 * Dindo - See Carina.
 * Enteng - Not a chance.
 * Ferdie - 5% - Not as bad as other storms.
 * Gener - 10% - As with Ferdie.
 * Helen - ?? - Nothing yet.