Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

November
Welcome to November in the EPAC! As the EPAC shuts down, I do not expect much more activity from here onwards. This is my storm forecast for the rest of the season:

Observed May-October Activity:
 * 20 tropical depressions (17 excluding CPAC)
 * 19 tropical storms (17 excluding CPAC)
 * 8 hurricanes
 * 1 major hurricane
 * ACE of 70.8725 (64.695 excluding CPAC)
 * 180 fatalities
 * $4.201324 billion (2013 USD) in losses

Andrew's Predicted November Activity:
 * 2 tropical depressions (both EPAC + counting TD 18-E)
 * 2 tropical storms (both EPAC)
 * 0 hurricanes
 * 0 major hurricanes
 * ACE of 7.6750 (all in CPAC region)
 * No fatalities
 * $100,000 (2013 USD) in losses

Total 2013 PHS Activity:
 * 22 tropical depressions (20 excluding CPAC)
 * 21 tropical storms (19 excluding CPAC)
 * 8 hurricanes
 * 1 major hurricane
 * ACE of 78.5475 (72.37 excluding CPAC)
 * 180 fatalities
 * $4.201424 billion (2013 USD) in losses

Let's make it a great November! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:39, November 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here's my predictions for November in the EPac:
 * 2 tropical storms (Sonia and Tico)
 * 0 hurricanes or major hurricanes
 * I think Sonia is the currently active depression that will strike Mexico, and I think Tico will form in mid-November, peak as a TS, and not affect land. I predict Tico will be the last storm of the season. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 01:45, November 2, 2013 (UTC)

This is the NHC October summary:

000 ABPZ30 KNHC 011650 TWSEP

MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM PDT FRI NOV 1 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN DURING OCTOBER WAS ABOVE AVERAGE IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF STORMS...WITH FOUR TROPICAL STORMS FORMING. ONE OF THOSE STORMS...RAYMOND... BECAME THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. BASED ON A 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FROM 1981 TO 2010...ABOUT TWO NAMED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE BASIN EVERY YEAR DURING OCTOBER... WITH ONE REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY. A MAJOR HURRICANE OCCURS IN THE BASIN IN OCTOBER ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER IS ABOUT 58 PERCENT OF THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.

REPORTS ON INDIVIDUAL CYCLONES...WHEN COMPLETED...ARE AT THE WEB SITE OF THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...USE LOWER-CASE LETTERS... WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/2013EPAC.SHTML

...

$$ HURRICANE SPECIALIST UNIT

We're doing a little better ACEwise than the Atlantic, but since most of the storms this year were really short lived, the ACE is ugly for a season with 19 storms (for comparison, the 2011 AHS had generated an ACE of 126). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:13, November 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The ACE this year was pretty lackluster because Raymond was our only major hurricane, but considering this is 2013, 42% below average is...well, acceptable, at least we had lots of named storms. Ryan1000 17:42, November 2, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Mexico
Well, as Raymond dies out, a new AOI rises. As it moves west-northwestward, it could possibly develop. It currently has a 20% chance of developing in the next five days. If our 20th tropical storm (18th if the CPAC is excluded) forms from this AOI, 2013 will become the second EPAC season since 1994 (after 2009) to produce 20 tropical storms, and the first season since 2006 to reach the 'S' name. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:30, October 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * This would be Sonia if it's named, first time since 1983, which ran the table at it's time. Ryan1000 14:20, October 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope this AOI becomes Sonia. The EPac has been really active this year! Steven09876 T 03:20, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope so too. Not sure how strong it will get, but after Raymond, I won't be so bad if it ends up peaking where Narda and Octave did, though hopefully it will get stronger than Priscilla. We are currently at an average of 62.6 kts per storm (60.8 kts per storm if you include Pewa and Unala); we need either a 115-kt Category 4 (if you count the CPAC as part of the EPAC) or a 78-kt Category 1 (if you count the CPAC and EPAC as entirely separate basins) to bring that average up to 63.5 kts per storm, which rounds up to 64 kts, or minimal hurricane strength. It pretty much goes without saying that the EPAC is in a much better shape than the Atlantic, which is currently averaging a paltry 52.9 kts per storm. To bring that average up to 63.5+ kts, the Atlantic would need the next storm to become a 191-kt (220 mph) Category 5, which ain't happening, or an average of 127 kts, 106 kts, 96 kts, 89 kts, 85 kts, or 82 kts from the next 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 storms, respectively. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:45, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Its been active in NS but it has been inactive with MH so the ACE is terrible I believe is average to below average which is a shame for all the name storms there has been Sonia will probably peak at 45 to 65 mph storm.Allanjeffs 03:54, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah the ACE still sucks, regardless of how many storms we've had, too few of them were long-lasting, let alone strong, and ACE is far below normal in both the EPac and the Atlantic.  I expect this to become Sonia, but not a very strong storm, neither do I see it affecting land. Ryan1000 14:12, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * This AOI, slowly coming together, now has a 30% chance of developing in the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:56, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here comes Sonia! I think it will peak as a moderate TS (around 50-60 mph). Steven09876 T 23:00, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's up to a 50% chance of developing during the next 5 days (near 0% - 48 hours), but its still not on the TWO yet. I still think this will become Sonia. Steven09876 T 00:04, October 30, 2013 (UTC)

Now it's on the TWO. 10% for two days and 50% for the next 5. Ryan1000 05:59, October 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * 30% and 60%. Now that Raymond's down and out, this one might become Sonia very quickly. Ryan1000 20:41, October 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * 50/70. Where is everybody? We have something, you know...Btw, happy haloween. :D Ryan1000 12:25, October 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Happy halloween from Honduras but I doubt it will be stronger than 65mph if it develops into Sonia which it looks likely,I hope we have Sandra in two years from now.Allanjeffs 20:29, October 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's up to 70% (48 hours) and 80% (5 days). Sonia should come sometime during this creepy and starry night, when ghosts will be flying around in your bedroom while you are sleeping, and when kids and teens (including me) will go out trick-or-treating. I plan to dress into a scary costume tonight. I also think Sonia will peak as a strong TS (around 65 mph), but I hope we will see a hurricane out of this. Btw, happy Halloween!! :D I even have a new signature to celebrate today. Steven09876 Happy Halloween! 23:38, October 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * HAPPY SONIAWEEN!!! XD LOL, anyways, I'm not allowed to go out trick or treating -_- Anyways lol. XD Lovely picture!  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 23:47, October 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * All the models show this system bringing heavy rains to the Mexican coast and making a landfall there so I hope no landfall.
 * Even if it does, hopefully it dies down significantly before it hits, unlike Manuel. This would be a November storm if it develops now. Ryan1000 00:09, November 1, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E
Now numbered. Forecast to peak as a 45 mph TS before moving into Mexico and dying. Here comes Sonia... Ryan1000 11:07, November 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * At 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg), this depression should reach 40 knots (45 mph) before moving over Mexico. Speaking of which, Mexico has had a record-tying number of tropical cyclones, eight, make landfall in Mexico (Barbara, Barry, Fernand, Juliette, TD Eight, Ingrid, Manuel, and Octave). Assuming this depression makes landfall as forecast, we will shatter 1971's record as the year with the most Mexican landfalling tropical cyclones. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:39, November 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this depression will become Sonia tonight, and it is predicted to make landfall in Mexico soon. I can't believe we are about to shatter 1971's record for the most Mexican landfalls in one season!! That's just insane! —Steven09876 Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 01:38, November 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The depression's pressure is a tad lower, 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg), but it still has not reached tropical storm intensity. It is now only forecast to hit 35 knots (40 mph) per the NHC. Even if this system fails on the level of Priscilla, I will be glad we got our first EPAC 'S' name in seven years. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:09, November 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Might not reach ts status and be the only td of the year like td 8 in the Atlantic.The <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">majority of storms that form in November in the Epac typically just reach td strength,even though they are some exceptions like Kenneth of 2011.Allanjeffs 02:44, November 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sonia
Guess Sonia disagrees with you Allan. Even though it's a fail. Ryan1000 12:45, November 3, 2013 (UTC)

Sonia is here! Although it will probably be a big epic failure TS storm. —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 19:31, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * It might cause a little flooding in Mexico, but I doubt it'll be anything like Manuel or Ingrid earlier this year. Ryan1000 19:47, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Expected to dissipate on Monday... but OW! I GOT A BELLYACHE! After going to Pizza Hut... ANYWAY! sonia is gonna be a piece of weak fail, lol I gotta agree with you steve lol. and ryan, sonia can never be like mangrid. lol  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 21:42, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Sonia tried. It only reached 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h)/1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). It at least will tap Mexico as a tropical cyclone, unlike other failures such as Priscilla and Unala. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:45, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * lol at the fails  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 21:46, November 3, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Sonia
Hit Mexico as a TS and died. I doubt it was anything severe. Ryan1000 14:54, November 4, 2013 (UTC)

And might the last storm and the last fail has come down.2013 looks to be done,or maybe nature might want to correct me ;PAllanjeffs 02:31, November 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Farewell, Sonia. Yet another epic failure goes by, and I don't think it did much in Mexico. I think we will see Tico before all is done, although it will probably be another fail. —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 03:07, November 5, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie Comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.
 * Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme".

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: Isaac829 E-Mail  20:12, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * All - 0% - None of them are worth retiring.

Isaac, are you sure Manuel is not worth retiring? $925 million (2013 USD) and 84 deaths sounds like a candidate to me, even if Mexico never retires names. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:07, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Manuel actually has a chance of retirement. The deaths and damage toll above, and also its flooding, make it a reasonable candidate for retirement. But if Mexico didn't retire Agatha, then Manuel could very well stay. EPac retirements can be completely random at times, and Mexico rarely retires names. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:42, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Steven, Agatha was more Guatemala's problem than Mexico's. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:31, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, I just couldn't think of any better examples. :P What about Paul (1982) or Tico (1983)? Both of these hurricanes mainly affected Mexico and killed more than 100 people, but they weren't retired. Although most of Paul's deaths were in Guatemala and El Salvador when it devastated the countries as a tropical depression, it struck Mexico at peak intensity. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:36, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Paul was likely snubbed because most of the impact occurred as a tropical depression. I am not sure why Tico did not go. Liza '76 is a good example of a storm that should have been retired. ~1,000 fatalities = out. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:58, October 11, 2013 (UTC)

ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. More to come... Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin? #No. WHAT A REAL CHIPMUNK lol
 * Barbara? #No.
 * Cosme #No.
 * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO.
 * Erick? #No.
 * flossie? Nah man
 * gill? Lazy fishy
 * HENRIETTE? Nah didn't do anything to Honolulu
 * pewa? Lol, no
 * uhnala? Uh, nala no.
 * Ivo? NAH MAN YOU FISH om nom nom
 * Juliette? TBA- you'd better please Romeo.


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions:

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville!
 * 2) Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards.
 * 3) Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name.
 * 4) Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances.
 * 5) Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * 6) Flossie - 1% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end.
 * 7) Gil - 0% - It did nothing special.
 * 8) Henriette - 0% - Henriette may have broken our Category 1 streak, but it is staying.
 * 9) Pewa - 0% - Similar to Unala, Tropical Depression Three-C, and Henriette, Pewa was a very interesting storm meteorologically, but impactwise, it should be long forgotten.
 * 10) Unala - 0% - Unala was quite an interesting storm meteorologically. However, it became Pewa's lunch before doing anything.
 * 11) Ivo - 0.01% - If previous serious storms to affect the Southwestern U.S. (Ignacio and Nora '97, Kathleen '76, Joanne '72, etc.) were not retired, Ivo should not.
 * 12) Juliette - 0.01% - The lack of major impact from Juliette essentially means its staying.
 * 13) Kiko - 0% - Despite how close it came to hurricane intensity, Kiko was a fail.
 * 14) Lorena - 0.01% - See Juliette's section.
 * 15) Manuel - 90% - This turned out to be quite the disaster in the end, coming back from the dead full force as a hurricane. $4.2 billion (2013 USD)  169 fatalities and all that deadly flash flooding makes it a near guaranteed retiree. If this storm hit the U.S., we would be looking at a storm with a 95 to 99 percent chance of retirement. Not even Ismael or Tico killed as many as Ismael. As much as I want Manuel to leave, keep in mind Karl caused $5.6 billion (2010 USD), but did not leave.
 * 16) Narda - 0% - A complete fail.
 * 17) Octave - 0.01% - See Juliette and Lorena's section.
 * 18) Priscilla - 0% - An even worse fail than Narda.
 * 19) Raymond - 2% - It broke our non-major streak, but the rainfall and two fatalities will probably not get it retired.
 * 20) Sonia - 0.01% - See Juliette, Lorena, and Octave's sections.

Here's my predictions!

<font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Hell no.
 * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it.
 * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough.
 * Dalila - 0% - Nope.
 * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - Fishie.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.
 * Pewa - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Unala - 0% - Didn't do nothin'. Maybe cause Pewa ate this storm up for dinner. lol
 * Ivo - 0.5% - Not much impact, but it did bring a little moisture to my house as a remnant low.
 * Juliette - 0.1% - Romeo is mad at this failure. It just brought rain to Baja and nothing more.
 * Kiko - 0% - No land impacts.
 * Lorena - 0% - Another failure.
 * Manuel - 60% - Caused lots and lots of flooding in Mexico and a bunch of deaths, and I want it to be retired. But since Mexico rarely retires names, there is an outside shot that it will stay.
 * Narda - 0% - And, we have yet another epic fail...
 * Octave - 0.5% - Brought rain to Baja, but it won't be retired.
 * Priscilla - 0% -  EPIC FAILURE!!! It has to be said.
 * Raymond - 1% - Became the season's first (and probably the only) major hurricane, threatened Mexico and was an interesting storm overall, but it didn't cause much damage.
 * Sonia - 0.1% - Didn't do much in Mexico.

STO12's Predictions:
 * ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here.
 * BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement.
 * COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme.
 * DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement.
 * ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement.
 * FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy.
 * GIL: 0% Just another addition to our streak of cat 1's, far from land too.
 * HENRIETTE: 0% Was certainly impressive to see it do what it did. But no retirement is to be arranged. Hopefully Henriette will impress us just as much in 2019.
 * PEWA: 0% A rare hurricane, but no retirement expected.
 * UNALA: 0% A rare weak storm that caused no impact to land.
 * IVO: 5% A weak tropical storm with a lot of moisture. No large impact.

<font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:05, August 26, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan Grand Speaks:

East Pacific: Central Pacific: Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again?
 * Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names...
 * Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah.
 * Dalila - 1% - See Cosme.
 * Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe.
 * Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish.
 * Henriette - 0% - Became a cat. 2, but no impacts on land.
 * Ivo - 1% - No impacts on land while tropical, but the remnants did cause some impact in Arizona.
 * Juliette - 3% - Some impact to Baja, but not enough to retire.
 * Kiko - 0% - Impressed us with that little stint of intensification, but you know the drill. No impacts, no retirement.
 * Lorena - 1% - Flooded southern Baja a little, but definitely not enough to retire.
 * Manuel - 90% - Quite the flooding in Acapulco, even more in Sinaloa. As many as 169 deaths, and possibly over 4 billion dollars in damage, I think this could easily be retired...but Mexico is pretty poor on nominating.
 * Narda - 0% - More like nada.
 * Octave - 10% - Probably not too severe.
 * Priscilla - 0% - I've heard of failures before, but this? Seriously?
 * Raymond - ?? - Might flood southern Mexico a bit, but should remain mostly offshore.
 * Pewa - 0% - Persisted longer than I thought, but nontheless, it stayed at sea.
 * Unala - 0% - Pewa ate her up.

I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. <font face="trebuchet MS">Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin: 0% fish
 * Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough
 * Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves
 * Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all.
 * Erick 0% nop another fish
 * Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur
 * Gil 0% fa-fa-fai-fai-fail,fail fail
 * Henriette:0% No my dear you are staying with the other 7 names that have been use,better luck next time.
 * Ivo 0% and one of the worst and scariest name of the list was an EPIC FAIL.
 * Juliette. 1% for the person dead but I should give her a 0% another fail
 * Kiko 0% It challenge the NHC in intensity but nothing more.He is staying
 * Lorena 1% And the failings in this basin continues
 * Manuel.85% I would put it at 95%if it was another country but knowing Mexico he might very well stay after what happen with Karl and Alex was unexcusable.If this stay I would be sad but no surprise nor shock.The rain it left over Guerrero are discribe as the worst ever record in the area.He needs to be gone,Its a toss up right now because of Mexico lack of retirements.Also this cause 4.5billion less than Karl but if its retire it might mean that Mexico care more of deaths than damage we will see soon.
 * Narda: 0% such a dissappointment.
 * Octave:0% Fail
 * Priscila:0 Another fail in here
 * Raymound;???


 * CPAC
 * Pewa 0%
 * Unala 0%
 * Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:36, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Barbara 3% aint gonna happen
 * 2) Erick 1% Should go, but no
 * 3) Flossie 20% Actually, it has a better chance than some of you think. Hawaii requested Daniel 06 and Kenneth 05 after r all.

And they were still not retire,if Agatha that kill hundreds didn`t go there is no excuse for Flossie to leave.Allanjeffs 16:33, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Actually, Allan, that is not exactly true. The EPAC is the basin the WMO randomly retires names from. Alma was retired, but not Agatha. They retired Ismael, but not Norbert or Jimena. They retired Kenna, but not Liza, Madeline, or Lane. They retired Pauline, but not Tara. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:07, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Some retirements from the WMO seem random for EPac, but Flossie's chances of retirement are still slim. Just because some random names like Fefa of 1991 were retired doesn't mean Flossie will be. I have doubts it will happen, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 21:08, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alma was retire because it caused heavy damage in Nicaragua,Costa Rica and my country (Honduras) damage was considerable in two of the three.Ismael,Kenna and Pauline all have make a lot of damage,and the ones you mention shouls have been retire too.I will add Rick the same year as pauline many in Mexico suffer more than him than with Pauline and still was not retire.I believed Fefa was retired because it means something in Hawaiian or other language that means something for them,like what happen with Israel and Adolph.Allanjeffs 12:43, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fefa could've been retired for being a threatening storm for Hawaii, like Hawaii nominated Daniel '06 and Kenneth '05, but unlike Fefa, they were turned down retirement. Alma caused some damage in parts of Central America, but the damage Alma caused was clearly much less than Agatha of 2010 and even Aletta of 1982 (which didn't make landfall) but neither of them were retired while Alma was. Some of them should've been retired, I disagree that Rick was that bad for Mexico although it was immensely powerful, but storms like Tara 1961, and Kathleen/Liza/Madeline of 1976 should've been retired, but they weren't. Tico of 1983 and/or Lidia and Norma of 1981 were also snubs to an extent. Ryan1000 21:52, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Agatha was not retire because it was not nominate by Guatemala,Alma was retire because Honduras and Nicaragua are more loosely  in retirement as they do so more than Guatemala.So they may have ask for the name.Paul should have retired too but I understand it wasn`t because it was only a td when affecting El Salvador.I am not sure if a td that kill thousands or hundreds can be retire after affecting a country can be retire later when they become a ts and don`t affect another landmass.Allanjeffs 01:15, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Alvin has a TCR, and upped to 60 mph.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:20, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * 2nd southernmost TC on record for EPac, behind 1983's Adolph. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara's is out, not much is new. Ryan1000 06:10, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * It was reassessed to be slightly stronger than operationally estimated, though. 70 kts/983 mbar is the new peak intensity, versus the 65 kt/990 mbar operational peak. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * (Erick) was a remanent low six hours earlier and it its pressure was dropped from 984 to 983.Allanjeffs 21:12, August 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nothing's too special about Erick. It did kill two, however. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:47, August 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Cosme is out. Its pressure was lowered slightly from 981 mbar to 980 mbar, it became post-tropical while still at tropical storm strength, and it held on to hurricane status for 6 hours longer than operationally estimated in the ATCF file. Not much else has changed. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:57, September 26, 2013 (UTC)

KIKO IS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ACCORDING TO POST STORM ANALYSIS! WOOOOO!!!! POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 19:34, November 5, 2013 (UTC)

Da Floss is out too. POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 19:37, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yippee! I've seen ATL storms be upgraded to minimal hurricanes in post-analysis (most recently Nate '11), but this is the first case I've seen in the EPAC. Kiko's ACE is up to 2.1, and the new intensity is 65 kt/989 mbar, making us 20-9-1. Not much change to Flossie, but its ACE is up slightly to 4.2225. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:13, November 5, 2013 (UTC)

Replacement names
Okay, I know this may be a little premature for me to start now, especially for an EPAC season, but Manuel has killed 83 people, more than Alma or Kenna ever did. I also understand Manuel primarily affected Mexico, was has a bad track record of retirement. However, neither of those excuses will stop me from starting to making this section.

Here are my top 10 replacements for Manuel:


 * 1) Mario (on the PAGASA naming lists)
 * 2) Maurice
 * 3) Mort (was used in 1997 in the WPAC)
 * 4) Martin (was used in 1997 in the SPAC)
 * 5) Miguel (Spanish version of Michael, which is on the Atlantic List IV)
 * 6) Maximino
 * 7) Mateo
 * 8) Modesto
 * 9) Melchor
 * 10) Macario

Also, here are my top three picks for Flossie, if by some odd chance, Hawaii requests it for retirement:


 * 1) Faith (used in 1947 and 1998 in the WPAC + 1966 in the Atlantic)
 * 2) Flo (was the name of a monster typhoon in the WPAC in 1990)
 * 3) Fauna

If anyone else wants to suggest replacement names for Manuel, Flossie, or any of the other EPAC names this season, please feel free to do so.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:52, September 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Keep in mind that Mexico's most recent fatality snub, Alex '10, killed as many as 73 people, and Manuel has beaten that number. I think that the reason Manuel may get away with it is less because it's Mexico and more because it's EPAC, home to the Aletta '82, Tico '83 and Agatha '10 snubs. I think Mark would be a good name for a hurricane, but maybe not as a replacement for Manuel due to EPAC's focus on Spanish names, so I'll agree with Andrew's choice of Mario, with Mateo being a close second. Francesca could also be a good replacement for Flossie, but then again, it could be deemed too similar to Frances, which was retired from the Atlantic lists after the 2004 season. Faith, as also pointed out by Andrew above, may be better. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:52, September 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Epac that should use only spanish names should change Manuel to the following
 * Mario
 * Marco
 * Marcos
 * Manny (nickname for Manuel)but it they can change Rita with Rina then this one is possible
 * Martin
 * Mauricio
 * Miguel have a good chance imo
 * Milton
 * Mateo which should have been the retirement for Mitch.
 * Allanjeffs 06:24, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Dylan, Francesca was previously used in the EPAC in 1966, 1970, and 1974, but I agree it is a little similar to Frances and therefore not get used. Allan, Marco is already on Atlantic List VI (remember this puny guy?). Marcos could be used, considering Marie, on Pacific List VI, and Maria, on Atlantic List III, are both on the Atlantic/Pacific naming lists right now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:33, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Uh, uh, uh, here they are!           I got these M names from Name Yo Baby. Like any of them?
 * '''Malik
 * '''Mancel
 * '''Maron
 * '''Marques
 * '''Martel
 * '''Marvin
 * '''Michael
 * '''Mikal
 * '''Montel
 * '''Montell
 * Montez
 * Mason
 * Miguel
 * Miguelito
 * Mario

And here are the name replacements for Flossie, should Hawaii kick her out!

'''Fajah Fawn Francelle'''

And now from NameYoBaby!

Anyway, sorry for the tables being extremely long, but in my opinion, the replacement name does not need to be within the same language (Portugese and English = Manuel and Flossie.) Like for example, Ivan (Russian) -> Igor (Russian) -> Ian (English), Hugo (English) -> Humberto (Italian), Rita (English) -> Rina (Hindu), Iris (English) -> Ingrid (Swedish). HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 19:32, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Yes, replacement names do not need to be in the same origin as their predesscor (e.g. Luis - Lorenzo). Anything not related to Michael/Matthew/Mitch/Marco/Marty/Max would be fine for Manuel, and anything not related to Fefa/Felicia/Fernanda/Fran/Frances/Flora/Florence/Fiona/Fifi would be fine for Flossie. I would prefer a Spanish name for Manuel, but the WMO has proven to chose almost anything for a retiree's replacement. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:45, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Geez, these tables are sooo long. But anyway, here are my top 10 replacements:

Manuel
 * 1) Mateo
 * 2) Mario
 * 3) Marcos
 * 4) Maurice
 * 5) Miguel
 * 6) Martin
 * 7) Melchor
 * 8) Modesto
 * 9) Marcel
 * 10) Matthias

I don't think Flossie will be retired, but here are my top 5 replacements for Flossie:

Flossie
 * 1) Flora
 * 2) Fatima
 * 3) Fallon
 * 4) Francine
 * 5) Flavia

<font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:08, September 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'm not expecting Flossie to be retired, but if it is by some random chance, I'd replace it with Flora. And it's not premature to begin this now Andrew, Manuel has a pretty decent chance of retirement, and even if it's only one name, it's enough to discuss replacement names for it (like Isaac of last year in ATL). I'd pick Mateo for Manuel, knowing it's a Spanish name and a pretty popular one. And Dylan, don't forget Tara 1961 and Liza 1976 snubs on Mexico's behalf. :( Their retirement track record really is poor. Ryan1000 01:12, September 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree that Tara and Liza should have been retired, but I only mentioned names from the current naming rotation to stick on the safe side, since the only retired names are from 1982 (Iwa) onwards. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:55, September 24, 2013 (UTC)