Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/February

Week 1
Peace and quiet. Gotta love the peak of the off-season...can this be the first month free of tropical activity since last May? (It also helps that it has the fewest number of days) CrazyC83 04:43, 1 February 2006 (UTC)
 * I'm glad that "First Atlantic season to have a storm form in January" will not go to 2006. 11 months  of possibilities to go. :p --AySz88^ - ^  05:03, 1 February 2006 (UTC)
 * Fortunately, this month is the shortest, and the conditions are about as unfavorable as it gets for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic. Enjoy it while it lasts though - spring is coming faster than you think! CrazyC83 19:49, 2 February 2006 (UTC)
 * More importantly, the SSTs are finally getting too low to support cyclogenesis. We still could get a tropical storm this month in the Carribean, though. --EMS | Talk 02:54, 4 February 2006 (UTC)
 * Please don't tempt fate, CrazyC83 kept speculating last season and a lot of outrageous stuff ended up coming true... -- Sarsaparilla39 05:55, 6 February 2006 (UTC)
 * CrazyC83 doesn't make the weather, seriously. Mike H. That's hot 07:00, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

La Niña Is Here
Report issued by NOAA today says La Niña is most definitely here. -- RattleMan 22:47, 2 February 2006 (UTC)
 * What could that mean? Stronger storms sooner? CrazyC83 03:48, 3 February 2006 (UTC)
 * It means more and longer lasting storms due to lower shear in the Atlantic. Storm stength will be governed by the Atlantic SSTs, not the Pacific ones however. --EMS | Talk 02:54, 4 February 2006 (UTC)
 * Wow, this can be serious. Approximately how many storms can form before June? Memicho 03:01, 4 February 2006 (UTC)
 * I think that there have only been a handful of May storms. It really is not until June that the seasonal wind shear relaxes and the SSTs rise into the range that supports cyclogenesis.  However, do watcth the current SSTs as the year goes on.  Note that even now the water off of Cape Verde and the Congo is hot!  That is an ongoing upwelling of warmer waters.  That upwelling water is cooling quickly now as it heads to the west, but come summer I expect that it will make the areas of the north Atlantic which are now yellow through orange will become a bright, angry red.  If that should happen, there will be times that the north Atlantic will literally be full of storms.  All that could hold the number of storms down would be strong wind shear, and that brings us back to there being a La Niña this year. --EMS | Talk 18:43, 6 February 2006 (UTC)

AoI:02W2A - NW Carribean
Looks like there is something in the NW Carribean again. I have not seen any models so I have no idea what (official) chance there is of a storm forming out of this. What I can say is that it seems to be under shear and that the SSTs are relatively low there now. So cyclogenensis seems to be unlikely there at this time IMO. --EMS | Talk 15:50, 7 February 2006 (UTC)


 * The Central Caribbean still has SST's capable of tropical development...and this is almost as cold as the waters are going to get... CrazyC83 17:52, 7 February 2006 (UTC)


 * It looks like cutoff convection from a front in the west central Atlantic. There's a great deal of shear and dry air in the area, which should inhibit any development. --Coredesat 19:28, 7 February 2006 (UTC)


 * We've got some time left in the complete off-season. March 10 is the anti-peak of the hurricane season. — Cuiviénen  ( Cuivië ) 03:39, 8 February 2006 (UTC)


 * I don't know that the waters in the Carribean are truly "as low as they will get". They usually are a bit cooler this time of year, and I have the feeling there of winter slowly making itself felt in the SSTs, which are lower now than even a couple of weeks ago.  I do agree that the current SSTs there can support cyclogenesis.  (Note that I said that the SSTs are relatively low.)  However, the overall situation is far from condusive to it.  In fact, it seems that a cold front has just gotten to this little system and is already breaking it up. --EMS | Talk 04:28, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

AoI:02W2B - East-Central Atlantic
In the meantime, I now notice a Vince/Zeta type of cyclone spinning south of the Azores. However, the SSTs there really are quite cool, and unless this system should sink down towards the equator tropical development would be a major surprise. --EMS | Talk 04:28, 8 February 2006 (UTC)


 * It looks quite impressive, but 21C water is not conducive to tropical activity. Stranger things have happened, but I think the chance of it become Alberto are only about 15%. CrazyC83 21:53, 8 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Remember, Epsilon survied in that water. --24.85.161.198 23:11, 8 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Silly question: What is "AoI:02W2A"?  Where does that designation come from and what does it mean? --EMS | Talk 19:30, 9 February 2006 (UTC)


 * AoI - Area of Interest (caught by our eyes), 02 - February (month number), W2 - Week 2, A - letter initial representing first area of interest found that week (in the offseason it is very rare to have that go past A, but come mid-season, there could be several areas to watch each week). CrazyC83 01:38, 10 February 2006 (UTC)


 * The order that we will list them on here for a well developed storm is:
 * Area of Interest number (i.e. AoI:06W1B)
 * Invest number (area of investigation by NHC - i.e. 90L.INVEST)
 * Tropical Depression number at that stage (i.e. Tropical Depression 1 - title classified as 01L.NONAME)
 * Tropical Storm name (i.e. Tropical Storm Alberto - title changed to 01L.Alberto)
 * Hurricane name (i.e. Hurricane Alberto - title unchanged)
 * Special updates during the storm (i.e. landfall discussion).
 * CrazyC83 01:43, 10 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Thanks much, although I am a little surprised that the sheared Carribean storm I noticed wasn't AoI:02W2A in that case (not that it amounted to much or had much of a chance to), and this other storm wasn't AoI:02W2B. --EMS | Talk 16:14, 10 February 2006 (UTC)


 * There you go, your earlier disturbance is now W2A :) For an example of how the order system is, see Wilma's archive. In this case, the AoI was listed as "Wilma and Alpha, dare I say it?", and because it's a creative title (and in reality, two AoIs), there's no need to change it to the AoI format. Usually, if someone chooses a different title, it should stay. See here for an example of how the titles progress as the storm strengthens. -- RattleMan 22:33, 10 February 2006 (UTC)

Alberto watch
Quote:
 * Alberto watch
 * A large cold-cored non-tropical low pressure system spinning off the coast of Africa near the Canary Islands has gained a bit of deep convection over the past 24 hours, and has about a 10% chance of becoming Subtropical Storm Alberto in the next few days. Waters temperatures are a cool 20 - 22 C over the region, and the low is forecast to drift towards the coast of Africa and gradually dissipate by the end of the week.
 * Jeff Masters

Whee! Hopquick 02:51, 9 February 2006 (UTC)


 * There will be no Alberto from that system - it has lost its deep convection, and the water temperatures are around 18°C (about equal to off the coast of Maine at the peak of hurricane season). Way too cold for a tropical cyclone to develop. CrazyC83 16:56, 9 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Where do you get all this info? -65.94.196.5 02:48, 10 February 2006 (UTC)


 * The wunderground.com tropics blogs, and other places. Hopquick 04:07, 10 February 2006 (UTC)

Weeks 3 and 4
After that hurricane disguised as a blizzard last weekend, there isn't much to speak of right now. No storms that tried to sneak in to be our "valentines" and get past it. CrazyC83 16:25, 15 February 2006 (UTC)

90Q.INVEST / 90L.INVEST !!!
Take a look at NRL Monterrey. There is a possible subtropical storm in the South Atlantic right now. If you don't believe me, look at this image. This is from this morning. In addition, here is a loop, curtosy of Accuweather. Folks, it looks like we have a South Atlantic tropical cyclone, albeit a very small one. For those who are too lazy to look in the links, the storm is located east of southern Brazil and moving eastward. Hurricanehink 20:16, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * It's not subtropical anymore -

TPPN10 KGWC 231735 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR S BRAZIL B. 23/1630Z (17) C. 29.1S/2 D. 43.3W/0 E. FIVE/METEOSAT-7 F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS -23/1630Z - G. IR/VIS/MSI

49A/ PBO PRTLY XPSD LLCC/AMNTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 0.40 DIVISIONS ON LOG10 SPIRAL. DT WAS T2.5. PT WAS T1.5. FT BASED PT. CNVCTN APPEARS TO BE DVLPG OVER LAST 3 HRS. BELIEVE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL.

MCCRONE/HAMILTON NNNN


 * It looks pretty impressive on satellite imagery, too: MODIS 250m resolution image - 1.7 MB Coredesat 20:31, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Whoa, good find! This probably should be on the South Atlantic tropical cyclone talk page, but given the lack of people there, it's probably OK here. Well, it's no Catarina, but it's looking nice already! Hurricanehink 20:38, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Wow. Where is that advisory from? I mean, who issued it, Naval Research Lab? NHC? TPC? I searched for "TPPN10 KGWC" and all google found was the advisory, not any context. --Golbez 20:42, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Wooooooooah, 90Q.INVEST?! Insane... This is quite impressive! -- RattleMan 22:18, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * It's an AFWA Dvorak bulletin. It was posted on Storm2k.org's forums earlier this afternoon by one of the meteorologists there - I'm guessing these aren't available to the public. --Coredesat 22:32, 23 February 2006 (UTC)

Exclude my cluelessness, but are 90L. and 90Q. totally different systems? And both are in the South Atlantic?WotGoPlunk 22:26, 23 February 2006 (UTC)
 * The same system, two designations. All Atlantic storms are given an L, even though so far as I know, only one South Atlantic storm has received a designation (Catarina, 50L.NONAME). So they gave it 90L, then I guess they decided to make Q the letter for the South Atlantic. --Golbez 22:35, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * I think the L was just there because there's no Q. :P 90L and 90Q are the same thing, just different designations. Also:

SOUTH AMERICA FORECAST DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1251 PM EST THU FEB 23 2006

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF BRASIL WILL MOVE ALONG 40W TO VITORIA THROUGH 24 HRS...THEN GRADUALLY DAMPEN WHILE IT DRIFTS FARTHER EAST. AT LOW LEVELS IT SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONT...BUT THIS BOUNDARY IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 48 HRS. '''A LOW NEAR 29S 43W IS SHOWING WARM CORE CHARACTERISTICS...AS IT HOVERS OVER WARM WATERS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.''' BUT AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO HAMPER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. SCATTERED RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN SAO PAULO-RIO DE JANEIRO AND MINAS GERAIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY MAXIMA OF 15-35MM.


 * --Golbez 22:27, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * My guess is that they initially posted it as 90L, then realized that that could create confusion, and changed it to 90Q. But both 90L and 90Q are up on NRL, so they didn't do a good job at preventing confusion. --Coredesat 22:36, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Poof! Hurricanehink 22:42, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Yeah...too bad. It was good while it lasted! Hmm, it might not be done yet. More convection appeared near the center. -- RattleMan 22:44, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Eh, it's fighting. There's a little (and I do mean little) loop of convection around the center, but the shear's probably going to win out in the end. --Coredesat 23:41, 23, February 2006 (UTC)

First seeing the 90L made me jump! WOW!!! I know it is in the South Atlantic, but could this be a harbinger for things to come??? CrazyC83 23:58, 23 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Quite a surprise to me. Don't remember seeing it on the site yesterday before logging off (about 5 am ET this morning for you Americans), so it's only been in the past few hours. I don't think we'll get anything out of it, but I'm sure meteorologists in Brazil and Argentina would be quite surprised when they check their satellites today... NSL E (T+C) at 01:00 UTC (2006-02-24)


 * Was it ever a tropical depression? With no naming system there, I almost think it should just get declared Tropical Depression One-Q... CrazyC83 01:15, 24 February 2006 (UTC)


 * With a T-number of 1.5, you could probably make a case that it was one (since 1.5 corresponds to winds of 25 kt, and a pressure of 1000 mb was given earlier). It certainly looked impressive in the link I posted earlier. --Coredesat 01:36, 24 February 2006 (UTC)


 * If it were stronger still, we could call it Tropical Storm OTЯ3d┘A!
 * Also, what is meant by T-number? The report at the beginning of this topic of discussion, signed McCrone/Hamilton, says "DT WAS T2.5. PT WAS T1.5." Ev-Man 01:58, 24 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Here's an explanation. --Coredesat 04:41, 24 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Thanks. Ev-Man 19:29, 24 February 2006 (UTC)

It finally appears to be dead this morning. There's no convection and the center is exposed. The latest AFWA bulletin gave it a T-number of 0.5, which gives you an idea of just how bad it looks right now. --Coredesat 11:00, 24 February 2006 (UTC)


 * NRL Monterrey apparently has an image from 1030Z (about an hour ago) which places it at 25kt/29.0&deg;S 40.0&deg;W... NSL E (T+C) at 11:28 UTC (2006-02-24)


 * FWIW - This cyclone is located over some fairly warm waters. Given a less hostile envioronment, it could have become a hurricane, like Cyclone Catarina. --EMS | Talk 20:06, 24 February 2006 (UTC)


 * As of 30 minutes ago, Jeff Masters says there's been another spark of convection "over the past few hours". --AySz88^ - ^ 20:09, 24 February 2006 (UTC)

AFWA just declared it dead:

TPNT KGWC 241852 A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTH ATLANTIC B. 24/1731Z (17) C. XX.X D. XXX.X E. GOES12 F. TX.X/1.5 -24/1731Z- G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

CNF. THERE IS NO LONGER ANY CNVCTN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE THE LAST MESSAGE ON THIS SYSTEM FROM AFWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

AODT: N/A

WOLLMANN/CAMPBELL

--Coredesat 21:42, 24 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Dead isn't the right word - after all it is being monitored for regeneration. Degeneration into a remnant low is the best word to describe what I would called Tropical Depression One-Q. CrazyC83 00:00, 25 February 2006 (UTC)

I guess I shouldn't have said "dead". Convection seems to be flaring up again around the remnant circulation, colder than ever before. --Coredesat 22:55, 25 February 2006 (UTC)
 * It's not near the centre. (29S,36W)90Q Invest Looks tropical/subtropical to me. (Not 100% sure)


 * It's gone from NRL. --Coredesat 04:29, 26 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Look above: "TD one-Q" was near (29S, 43W) on the 23rd.  The convection near (29S, 36W) is part of a line on non-tropical disturbed weather that has been there for the whole time.  The remnant of the TD is visible on the left edge of that picture as a swirl of low clouds at (30S, 44W). --EMS | Talk 06:28, 26 February 2006 (UTC)

Classification
With the lack of any major monitoring body in the South Atlantic, what would it be best declared? In my view, it was at least a tropical depression, and deserves brief mention on the page and on South Atlantic tropical cyclone. CrazyC83 00:07, 25 February 2006 (UTC)


 * South atlantic storms do not need to be mentioned on AHS pages. If it was a depression it should be mentioned on South Atlantic tropical cyclone, but we'll need to find some sources... — jdorje (talk) 00:14, 25 February 2006 (UTC)


 * I don't see sources for the Angolan or Jan 04 cyclones on that page, indeed even strength is ambiguous. NSL E (T+C) at 01:02 UTC (2006-02-25)


 * Well, that's...very bad... — jdorje (talk) 01:33, 25 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, your view constitutes original research. --Golbez 01:30, 25 February 2006 (UTC)

It may not be possible to find "official" sources since there is no official body. But we do need *some* sources. IIRC most sources for Cyclone Catarina are from university researchers. — jdorje (talk) 01:33, 25 February 2006 (UTC)


 * There are some good references under South Atlantic tropical cyclone. You may want to rename that section. --EMS | Talk 05:05, 25 February 2006 (UTC)