Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC Best Track for last year is out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07W
Potent tropical depression was picked up very early this morning by JMA, followed shortly after by the JTWC. Currently passing through the Northern Marinara Islands. The models are making this a strong typhoon before slamming into the Delta of the mighty Yangtze. Shanghai is in its sights. Looks to be about a Category 3–4 before making landfall on Shanghai at similar intensities.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:42, July 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, thanks for copying exactly what I said on chat! :^ - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:19, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Soulik
The JMA has upgraded this depression to a tropical storm and named it Soulik, a name submitted by Micronesia which is the name of a traditional Pohnpei's chief title. The JTWC has followed suit in upgrading the depression to a tropical storm. It is not looking too good, as the JMA predicts a 55-kt severe tropical storm in 72 hours. I believe this could become our first official typhoon of the year. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:47, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Update: The JMA expects a typhoon from Soulik in approximately 69 hours, and the JTWC expects a Category 3 typhoon from the system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:49, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

This will be trouble for mainland China it would probably reach cat 4 or 5 in the next few days.Allanjeffs 11:12, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Soulik
Well, look at the difference six hours can make! Soulik already has winds of 55 knots and a minimum pressure of 980 mbar, displacing Rumbia as the season's strongest storm!!! And it is only getting worse from here. The JMA now predicts a typhoon in 24 hours. At this rate, I predict Soulik will be a super typhoon in three to four days!!! This storm is somewhat like 1997's Typhoon Winnie. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:25, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * This is also coming from a storm with unusual origins as a cold-core low. It sure has grown in size and gusto, and has no problems in intensifying at the moment. GFS is being a little more aggressive with their forecast this morning – 925 mbar for peak is what the model is saying. However the model is showing a recurve just off the coast of China before a final landfall on Korea. We'll wait to see where Soulik positions itself to determine where it'll go.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:48, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * It'll be a typhoon soon, but hopefully not super-powerful; the last thing China needs is a super typhoon heading for their largest city. Shanghai has seen some near-misses from typhoons in the past few years, but they haven't been overrun by a super typhoon since 1956. I hope Soulik doesn't get there. Another close call for China was last year's Vicente, which came within 40 miles of downtown Hong Kong as a 135 mph category 4 storm, which could've made it the worst typhoon to hit the city since 1937, if not ever, but thankfully he turned away at the last minute. I don't like the looks of Soulik. This is an ominous storm... Ryan1000 18:27, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * And believe it or not, the JTWC has upgraded Soulik to a typhoon. The JMA also is very close to upgrading the system to a typhoon. This intensifying storm currently has 60 kt winds (10-min) and a 975 mbar pressure. According to the JMA, we could see "Typhoon Soulik" in 12 hours. This storm is just geting worse and worse... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:27, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Soulik
Now already classified as a typhoon by both the JMA and JTWC; Soulik is wasting no time to intensify in what is not even the best conditions in its forecasted path. JMA's cone of doom brings it over Taiwan in 84 hours.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:55, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Halfway across the globe and we have Soulik in the books. Even though the cone of doom brings it into Taiwan, a landfall is unlikely; however, we could still see a landfall along eastern China before the westerlies picks it up recurves it into the Korean peninsula. Soulik is bear watching and more potent to be a major event compared to Chantal. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  01:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one has super typhoon write on it mainland China would suffer a direct blow as is not forecast to hit Taiwan so a major blow would be the most logical from this system.Allanjeffs 01:32, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, talk about intensification! I did not expect this fast of an upgrade! According to the JMA, Soulik could have a 930 mbar pressure in only 72 hours. And the JTWC takes the typhoon almost directly over Shanghai. This is a nightmare storm in the making... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:44, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

It looks like Soulik is trying to build the northern part of its eyewall, and has maintained a ragged eye that has been fluctuating throughout the morning. However, its overall appearance and organization has been strengthening – strong rainbands have built to the north of the storm. Models still pinning for an intense typhoon; ECMWF has 924 mbar in its latest model run.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:06, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Goodness, Soulik is pulling a Felix!!! Per JMA standards, Soulik has not intensified significantly, but per JTWC standards, Soulik has exploded from a Category 1 typhoon to a Category 3 typhoon overnight. As its organiztion increases, super typhoon status is becoming more likely, and we have a destructive storm in the making. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, this is shaping up to be a monster storm. It also seems like the eye is finally maintaing itself, and the eyewall is nearing completion. Not sure why the JTWC is being super conservative in their forecast, but the JMA is expecting a 920 mbar typhoon in the coming days.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:33, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * This storm is starting to scare the crap out of me. I mean, look at how well-organized this thing is. It's got devastation written all over it. GFS is now showing a direct hit to Shanghai as a major typhoon in about 3 days. They haven't seen that in July in a long time. Chantal may be getting a lot of attention but Soulik will be far more destructive than Chantal ever has a chance to be. Ryan1000 16:01, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
There are enough storms. -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:41, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - 5% - 2 deaths are not going to do it.
 * Auring - 0% - Missed most of Philippines.
 * Bising - 0% - Paralleled the Philippines.
 * Shanshan - 0% - An excuse of a TS.
 * Crising - 20% - Not enough.
 * Yagi - 0% - Fail.
 * Dante - 0% - Went the opposite way.
 * Leepi - 0% - Nope.
 * Emong - 0% - No.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Not too much damage.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned away from the Philippines.
 * Rumbia - 25% - I doubt it.
 * Gorio - 30% - Nah.
 * Soulik - ?

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)