Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
It's not off of the coast yet, but for a wave coming off of Africa, I'd say it has the highest chance of forming so far this year. It has some model support and a low pressure area so far. Conditions also look favourable off the coast. Yqt1001 23:52, July 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not quite. The SAL is still really thick off of Africa´s coast; I would consider this invest developing perhaps when it reaches the lesser antillies, but a Bertha-like storm isn´t in my future for this invest. It cetainly bears watching though, and as the heart of hurricane season continues to approach, more African waves will become threatening storms for the Caribbean Islands, Central America, the U.S, Mexico, Bermuda and Canada. Every invest out there bears watching as of now. August is just around the corner, and by August, not only will more and more people come here, but more and more storms will come off of Africa. Ryan1000 01:03, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The tropics are heating up like it's already August. Maybe a re-2004 could happen at this rate? Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:49, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * August isn't too far away now, but I can see a year like 2008. Anyways this wave isn't expected to develop until it reaches the Caribbean, but I think it's odds of forming are still high in the future. It kinda fell apart once it departed Africa though and met the SAL. Yqt1001 23:47, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess the more imminent threat now is 90L, because it looks a lot like Celia did in 1970. This wave could be future Emily though, and it needs to be watched out for, especially when it gets to the Caribbean. Ryan1000 04:33, July 27, 2011 (UTC)

Now up to 20% for the next 2 days. The thing about this one is unlike Don's precursor, this one will have to fight an upper level low dominating the Virgin Islands. It needs to develop now to have a better chance at that shear in the eastern to northern Caribbean 3 or 4 days from now. However, the shear may settle down before it gets there(which I desperately don't want), so Emily could be threatening us much more than Don will. I may even see her as a major threatening the gulf coast 7 days from now. This thing could get bad. Ryan1000 00:13, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * OMG! There is a closed circulation already! All it needs is higher winds and deeper convection and we have TS Emily! Yqt1001 02:48, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested! The model support for this is amazing with nearly every model developing a hurricane out of this. Also up to 30% now. Yqt1001 04:20, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * This wave really scares me, because it has a lot of time to develop and when it does get into the Caribbean, we could see a very powerful hurricane heading for the U.S. gulf coast and Cuba. The AOI north of Panama has less time to develop than this wave, but because it's closer to land, it certainly has to be watched more for the time being. I don't know if this will be Emily or Franklin, but either way, I hope it doesn't develop into a monstorous U.S. storm in the far future. Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * You might or might not be surprised at how many models develop this into a major hurricane. (nearly all) However the models are still doubting on where it will go... Yqt1001 14:36, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * It could end up crossing the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and then end up in the eastern seaboard of the U.S. as a powerful hurricane, but it also isn't out of the question it could rage across the Caribbean and hit the Gulf coast as a powerful major hurricane, but who knows where it could end up... It could be a re-Dennis or re-Emily, or(god forbid) a re-Ivan or Gilbert. Ryan1000 15:26, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 50% now. Yqt1001 23:41, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

Wow... this invest is geting its act together quite fast. And just how it's looking, the fifth tropical depression could be on our way. And very ironically, it appears that Emily is trying to redo her 2005 fame. (But in an EXTREME coincidence, I had predicted the 2011 Emily to take the same track as the 2005 Emily in the strangest storm section in the betting pools. Looks like I could be the first person to win that section! :)) Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:16, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

I now have posted another blog post. OWEN2011 00:27, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, we don't know if it will become a monster yet, but it isn't out of the question. And Andrew, HSpin won the strangest storm section for Omeka in the pacific hurricane season betting pools last year, so you would be the second, not the first. Sorry. =( Anyhow, this wave is certainly worth watching as it very well could be a re-Emily, but many other options are open to 91L as well, so don't count on a re-Emily just yet. Ryan1000 02:29, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to 70% now. Yqt1001 05:49, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * The big difference between this one and Don is Emily has so much more time to develop. It will likely become named, or at least numbered, before it even reaches the lesser antillies. So this storm could be quite severe for the Caribbean and U.S. The people in the leewards need to prepare NOW. I could easily see Emily at the most a cat 2 when it approaches the islands this Sunday/Monday. Ryan1000 06:06, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * This may be our first"big" storm of the season. If you want to see my blog written about it click on OWEN2011 and go to my blogs. OWEN2011 13:49, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, here's a quicker way to get to either blog, [] or []. If you have questions, contact me on my talk page ([]). Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:17, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Uh oh. 80% now, I'm expecting Emily by later today or tomorrow. It's really getting it's act together and we have a very good chance of seeing her very soon. It's starting to remind me of the 2005 season itself. We're at the fastest start since 2005, but the big difference between this year's start and 2005 and 2008 is all of the storms thus far were weak storms. 2005 had 2 pre-August cat 4's and a U.S. major hurricane of those two. That's a record. There were 3 U.S. landfalls before August 2005, 2 of which were hurricanes. 2008 had the longest-lived pre-August storm on record and a billion-dollar U.S. storm before August. In 2011, we had Arlene, which caused some moderate impact to Mexico, Bret and Cindy, both fish storms, and Don, which only lightly affected Texas, perhaps it caused some destruction, but not much. We had a lot of named storms thus far, but unlike 2008's or 2005's starts, they are all short-lived and weak. Anyways, keep your eyes out for future Emily. Ryan1000 17:58, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh,no... at 90%. TD 4 could happen later tonight, then TS Emily tomorrow. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:57, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * An air force reconossance will be scheduled to investigate this wave later today for a possible low-level circulation, therefore TD 5. Furthermore, the wave in the EPac south of Acapulco is up to 70%. That thing is already spinning. It has to be 5-E by later today. Ryan1000 02:07, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Near 100% in the Atlantic and 90% in the Pacific our to E storms are coming AllanJeffs
 * For my blog written yesterday see . OWEN2011 12:39, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Argh... Come on NHC! It's TD 5 and you know it. Why are you so stubborn to have to wait until it develops it's circulation? BTW, we now have 5-E in the east Pacific; it's already forecast to become a hurricane and it isn't even named yet. Muifa is now down to a cat 4 super typhoon in the WPac and the latest forecast still takes it towards Southern Japan or the Koreas. It will try to head towards China and Taiwan, but an approaching trough will pull it towards Japan most likely as a category 2 storm. However, I agree Emily is going to be our big story over the next week as it charges across the Caribbean. Ryan1000 14:34, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at near 100%. It looks like it's weakening and becoming more elongated. However, interests in the Caribbean need to closely monitor this system's progress over the next several days, because it is still very likely to develop by tonight or tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:26, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Hunters had a communication problem, that 100% figure is all satellite estimates, but it is elongated and seems to be a weakening a bit. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Very elongated; down to 90% as well. --HurricaneMaker99 23:49, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure if this will happen but the NAM presentation for this system out 78 hours is just scary. Hurricane David much? Check this out: CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Argh... Come on NHC! It's TD 5 and you know it. Why are you so stubborn to have to wait until it develops it's circulation? BTW, we now have 5-E in the east Pacific; it's already forecast to become a hurricane and it isn't even named yet. Muifa is now down to a cat 4 super typhoon in the WPac and the latest forecast still takes it towards Southern Japan or the Koreas. It will try to head towards China and Taiwan, but an approaching trough will pull it towards Japan most likely as a category 2 storm. However, I agree Emily is going to be our big story over the next week as it charges across the Caribbean. Ryan1000 14:34, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at near 100%. It looks like it's weakening and becoming more elongated. However, interests in the Caribbean need to closely monitor this system's progress over the next several days, because it is still very likely to develop by tonight or tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:26, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Hunters had a communication problem, that 100% figure is all satellite estimates, but it is elongated and seems to be a weakening a bit. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Very elongated; down to 90% as well. --HurricaneMaker99 23:49, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure if this will happen but the NAM presentation for this system out 78 hours is just scary. Hurricane David much? Check this out: CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)



Wow, I didn't expect the shear to gain a hold of it, but it did elongate 91L somewhat. It's just that, this thing is still in very favorable conditions and still has a very high chance of forming today or Tuesday, so don't let your guard down just yet. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's still at 90%, but a hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating this disturbance for information on whether or not it has developed a closed low-level circulation. If that has happened, then it will accordingly be numbered TD 5. Muifa is gradually weakening, and Eugene is slowly but surely strengthening into a hurricane. We're really kicking into gear. I archived the part before this thing for July, but this invest is staying, since it's going to develop in August. Ryan1000 13:01, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * The satellite appearance of the system isn't too elongated as it was yesterday. Looks like it resumed to a "normal" size. It also seems as if 91L is forming an eye? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg
 * It needs to have that closed circulation for it to become TD 5(and sign your post with 4 tildes 99). The HH aircraft still hasn't given confirmation to the NHC for a depression though... Ryan1000 13:38, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Well, the HH aircraft is back, and despite the well-defined structure of 91L and the fact it's producing near-TS force winds, it's still not developing that closed circulation. Another aircraft will check it out later today for possible development. It really wants to take it's time. It's likely not going to be such a threat to the lesser antillies for that reason, but Jamacia, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the U.S. gulf coast need to keep their eyes out for this thing. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:22, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Is this wave really trying to stay this weak? It's now further down to 80%... I thought I would see TD 5 by now, but I guess it will have to enter the Caribbean for it to develop now. Don't let your guard down just yet. It still could become Emily. Ryan1000 18:26, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This would be helpful, Martinque radar! Please tell us what you think of the radar presentation that 91L gives. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:30, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * More than likely that we have emily know. AllanJeffs in the place i am is 21:26, August 1,2011
 * The circulation of 91L has made landfall on Dominica, but the main story is still to come. The area of convection east of the circulation center recently exploded, creating a large column of supercells that extend from east of the island of Guadeloupe to Barbrados. Dominica remained sunny for much of the day, even as the circulation center passed over. However, thunderstorm activity recently flared over the center, so they are getting tropical thunderstorm activity as we speak. Guadeloupe is getting a supercell over their heads, and Martinque, which has not seen much rain today, will get a wall of rain coming towards them. As for the other islands, there is a thunderstorm over Barbrados, but I cannot confirm with a Barbrados radar (it's offline) to confirm that it is pouring rain. Nonetheless, Barbrados remains within the wall of storms until about 2 hours later. St. Lucia is starting to have clouds, and will have rain on them soon. St. Vincent, which saw rain earlier today from the wave west of 91L, had a brief sun break, but will see rain in a short time. The final island, Grenada, will miss most of the thunderstorm activity, but additional showers are likely. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Finally Emily is born invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren 01-Aug-2011 22:19 3.2K let see where she go AllanJeffs 22:27 August 1, 2011
 * Finally Emily is born invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren 01-Aug-2011 22:19 3.2K let see where she go AllanJeffs 22:27 August 1, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily
Special advisory issued by NHC; Emily is born at 35 kt/1006 mbar. NHC takes her into DR as a TS, weakening, then becoming a minimal hurricane as it nears Florida. And NAM really loves this thing, doesn't it? Check the WunderMap - now it's taking Emily right into Haiti at (I think?) hurricane strength! Please, Emily, behave yourself! --HurricaneMaker99 23:34, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah you beat me! Looks like the "gamble" has paid off! Hello, Emily, the fourth storm of the season to skip tropical depression status. While satellite imagery seems disorganized, the radar is beautiful. They got the Martinque radar mosiac back, yes!! Check out theradar The circulation center now seems to be positioned southwest of Dominica, although the main thunderstorm activity is positioned east of center. Guadeloupe and Dominica still facing tropical storm strength winds. Anyways, let's remember the struggle that 91L committed into becoming Emily! :D CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:49, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

August 1 is really early for a hurricane. Also, the NHC track makes Emily the first hurricane since Ike in 2008 to make landfall in the U.S., and our first east coast strike since Katrina (Ophelia and Earl don't count)! Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:49, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'd be stunned if this thing could even survive it's first landfall; if it does hit Hispaniola, it will be shredded up by the mountains there and will likely either end up in the Gulf of Mexico or just die out. Go tell Hurricane David of 1979 he had a pleasant time over there. It stormed into Santo Domingo as a 175 mph category 5 hurricane and barely emerged the DR as a one. Olga of 2007 crossed them in December and it just died out after it hit them, as a 60 mph storm. Hispaniola is not a happy place for hurricanes. If this thing was heading further westward across the Caribbean towards, say Jamacia, it would be much more dangerous than where it otherwise could be if it follows that NHC track. And climatologically we are actually supposed to get our first hurricane by July 31, so we're actually right on track if you ask the experts from where our first hurricane should be, except Emily is more than a month ahead of the normal date of our E name. The lesser antillies got off pretty easy I think. Emily might have brought some rainshowers to them but it's nothing compared to the monstorous hurricanes we have had in the past there(Ivan, Dean, Janet, Hugo, ect). Ryan1000 23:52, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is a lucky chance for survival if it traverses East Hispanola, less mountains there. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:01, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * CobraStrike, I was saying if it does follow the current NHC track and does hit central Hispaniola, it will get knocked down and will likely skim northern Cuba and get between the straights of Florida to go into the Gulf of Mexico. If that scenario comes up, boy oh boy, bad things are gonna happen. Unlike Bonnie or TD 5 of last year, this year we have an OASIS in the Gulf. VERY little shear and dry air, and it has to make landfall once it gets into the GOM. I think the interaction with Hispaniola will change it's path to crossing north of Cuba until it reaches the Gulf. That's what's scaring me about this thing. We haven't had a major hurricane in the Gulf since, well technically, Karl of last year, but Gustav was the last GOM MH we had threatening the U.S. coastline in 2008, not to mention Ike, though never becoming an MH in the GOM, caused massive damage on the Gulf coast as a strong as hell category 2. Stay tuned. I think our first big NAtl story of 2011 is here, and unfolding. Ryan1000 00:16, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * If the Azores High remains as is right now and buldges slightly east and then back west, the Gulf scenerio may occur. If that happens, and the GOM remains a tropical oasis, then I predict (coming from a 5th grader) that it will be a solid category 3 before landfalling on the Texas coast, but rapid deepening is likely. However, most of the models are agreeing with the main NHC forecast track, but a few (BAMM and BAMD) are looking for a Gulf scenerio. Anyways, there is an unvaforable area (bunch of SAL and shear) north and west of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico showing strenthening. May be a factor. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:26, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * The intnsities of hurricanes also determines their forecast track, however. If Emily runs head-on into Hispaniola, it will rapidly fall down into a minimal tropical storm or depression, or if we get really lucky, dissipate. Normally, weak storms aren't as affected by steering currents as much as strong ones are. If Emily shrinks down into a TD or barely a TS, then the Bermuda High won't be able to get a hold of Emily and it will escape the high and wind up in the GOM. Currently Emily's core is a little to the west of the main thunderstorm activity. If Emily get's her act together like lightning(I mean David lightning), then the east coast scenario is more likely. If Emily remains a weak and disorganized storm when it hits Hispaniola, the Gulf scenario is more likely. As I mentioned earlier, the mountanous terrain of Hispaniola is not a happy place for hurricanes. We'll just have to wait and see. Ryan1000 00:40, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just to let everyone know, I have just posted a new blog of Emily, Eugene, and Muifa. OWEN2011 01:05, August 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * Looking at the Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities for Emily, it looks pretty fine at first, but after Hispaniola, things get shaky and expand, marking Emily's unsurity in the Atlantic. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:30, August 2, 2011 (UTC)

New NHC advisory just in. Not much change with the intensity as Emily remains with 40 mph winds. The forecast has a slight change. Instead of a Florida impact, its more of a Florida skid, its Palm Beach and away! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:55, August 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * Don't be too certain on that yet. Another thing about Emily is now that it's staying a 40mph disorganized TS, there is a chance it could actually miss Hispaniola to the south and head more towards Jamacia and Cuba. The latest forecast changed in direction as well. Now it's heading straight westward and not west-northwestward, it may not even affect them and head towards Jamacia instead. But if that happens, it could be much stronger for the Gulf coast. Stay tuned on Emily. Ryan1000 07:40, August 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, it looks Emily made an outer band to its south. Emily is most likely trying to get its act together. OWEN2011 13:01, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * As of Advisory #3A, I checked the TS wind speed Probabilities, and it turns out at first, the area is small, then rapidly expands, In fact the entire Florida Peninsula has a chance of getting TS winds. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 13:41, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily Advisory 4: Emily remains with 45 mph and an astonishingly high pressure of 1006 mbar. While satellite appearance is swell, Hurricane Hunters have found it disorganized. Emily is trying to re-organize around the center, so it may strengthen quickly soon. Forecast fixes: Emily is now forecast to do more of a quarter-circle track than an "L" track. The greatest change however, is that NHC is looking for a recurve out to sea rather than an East Coast impact. That is all. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:17, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * The 4a intermediate advisory out. The only changes are that Emily is not stationary anymore and is now on the move... The Lesser Antilles are technically done with Emily except for a few showers. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:11, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Advisory 5 is out! Emily has strengthened slightly to a tropical storm with 50 mph and a min. pressure of 1005 milibars... Emily remains disorganized, and the center is hard to track. The forecast has changed to show that the Hispaniola interaction will weaken the storm to a depression (and we all knew it already). CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:49, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * New advisory. Nothing changes except for a vortex fix. Satellite imagery shows Emily may be a clip weaker. The northwest turn is expected in just a few hours, maybe even minutes, but now it is just heading west. Models are agreeing with each other in track, but intensity models are all around. 3 models expect hurricane strength anytime in Emily's lifetime. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:29, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like Emily lost a ton of convection on its east side as a convection explosion occurs over the Central Dense Overcast. Emily seems a bit smaller now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:01, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * That's going to go bad with flooding in Haiti. If it was not Haiti Emily would be striked for sure. 91.18.30.118 16:54, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Where is Emily going after Haiti, the NHC currently shows it going to the north, but I'm more curious of where she is going after? I'm going to be on the east coast/atlantic canada until mid August. :P Yqt1001 17:46, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Since it's staying weak it may likely end up clipping southern Hiti and I'm fearing it will become a strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean like Gustav or Dennis. Stay tuned everyone. Ryan1000 19:48, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Welcome Cobra Strike! Everybody see my latest blog post. Maybe on my blog we can redirecct some things there. The sections seem to always be crowded.
 * I might have another blog on Friday. The delay is I am flying down to Florida. I might feel TS force winds from Emily. OWEN2011 19:56, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily's circulation is being re-covered (not recovered, re-covered) by clouds. May be a sign... CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:06, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's still rather disorganized though, so it likely will pass south of Hispaniola and between Haiti and Jamaica. When it gets into the western Caribbean though, things may get interesting... Also, Eugene is resembling Adrian again. Ryan1000 22:03, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * More like surpassing Adrian...anyways, the Gulf may bring Emily a stir... CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:05, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily may appear to be getting better organized, but she still isn't making that northward turn. The more she goes farther westward, the higher a chance she will affect the southern U.S. We aren't so sure as to what she'll do yet, but as I said earlier, i'm looking forward to her passing through Haiti and Jamaica and then a Dennis or Gustav repeat. Once she gets into the western Caribbean, she's just gonna take off, from a TS to possibly a category 3 or 4 storm in less than a day or two. Everyone on the gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida needs to get ready for this potential monster storm. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:12, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Personally I'm hoping she hits Texas. I hate to say it, but it's probably better for a hurricane to strike there than it is for one to curve out to sea; Texas really needs a nice, wet tropical cyclone to bust some of that drought, especially after Don failed miserably. A TS or Cat 1 there would be perfect, since it could dump a lot of rain while reducing the probability of significant damage. --HurricaneMaker99 01:05, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Texas does need some rain, but they also could use a break from hurricanes, especially after Ike in 2008. If a cold front manages to break through the ridge, that would be all we would need. And the rest of the Gulf coast states except Louisiana hven't seen any big hurricanes in 6 years or more. Florida needs a wake-up call of some sort, and so does North Carolina and New England. Ryan1000 01:38, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * They can keep the hell away from New England! --HurricaneMaker99 03:20, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm really starting to doubt if she makes that northward turn. Where she goes if she doesn't go north...I have no clue. The models tend to point over Cuba into the Gulf though. Yqt1001 13:17, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * "...MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY..." ...knew it. 99.58.60.158 18:18, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm really starting to doubt if she makes that northward turn. Where she goes if she doesn't go north...I have no clue. The models tend to point over Cuba into the Gulf though. Yqt1001 13:17, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * "...MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY..." ...knew it. 99.58.60.158 18:18, August 4, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Emily
Oh ho ho ho! Emily is gone, sorry peeps! It is now just a funny trough of low pressure. The storm still has potential and COULD regenerate. Just watch out. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:36, August 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * And I thought Don was an epic fail. We have had just a bunch of short-lived storms thus far this year, but i'm not sure if it will stay that way in this entire season. Emily was barely a warm-up to what is to come for the rest of the year. We are lucky to have had this run of luck thus far. Ryan1000 00:49, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't see why Emily shouldn't regenerate once she reaches the Bahamas. Yqt1001 00:54, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Um, she's lost almost all of her convection due to interaction with Haiti, so i'd say she's dead. And I don't know if the cost of damages section was entirely necessary in the Betting pools, CobraStrike, but I won't argue with anything, since nothing's truly predictable in the tropics. Ryan1000 01:08, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says 60% chance of regeneration, I agree with them. This isn't really that different than a storm going over Central America and finding favourable conditions on the other side. Yqt1001 01:13, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * But it has little convection and it's circulation has not even passed Hispaniola. So no, no coming back IMO. We may see her regenerate, but i'm not counting on it yet. Ryan1000 01:18, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Post-tropical Cyclone Emily is still at 60%, and a Florida hurricane strike is possible. Now, I have a question: If Post- Emily regenerates, will it be called Emily or Franklin? Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 14:04, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It will be Emily; see Ivan (and several of 2001 storms) for a precedent. --HurricaneMaker99 14:54, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, if a storm dies in the same basin it forms in, it becomes renamed what it was. The first time that happened in the Atlantic was in 1981 when Hurricane Dennis became a TS in the open Atlantic, degenerated into an open wave before hitting the lessers, then regenerated into a TS when it struck Florida and the Carolinas. Still, Hispaniola really knocked Emily down hard. She will have a hard time rebuilding her former self. But until then, our big story I guess is Muifa in the WPac, which is charging towards Shanghai as a downright massive 100 mph storm. Eugene is now down to a tropical storm and the AOI south of Mexico is at near 0% for the next 2 days, which, in my book, is no future Fernanda. Ryan1000 15:40, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * The 'Remnants' of Emily are now not marked on the NHC. Now it is classified as an AOI (not invested) with 60% regeneration, as said earlier CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:44, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now they are at 70% I think she will regenerate again Allanjeffs 23:57, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * However, the circulation is approaching southern Florida, not further northward. Because Emily died out, it is heading father westward and may slip into the GOM and cause some trouble there. It's not out of the woods yet, but it will take some time to recover from what Hispaniola did to it, so I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it doesn't even redevelop at all. But because it's getting very close to the heart of 2011's AHS, waves crossing Africa will continue to bear watching more and more as they may threaten the U.S, the Caribbean, CA, Mexico, Bermuda, and Canada. Emily was barely the beginning I fear. Ryan1000 00:34, August 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * However, the circulation is approaching southern Florida, not further northward. Because Emily died out, it is heading father westward and may slip into the GOM and cause some trouble there. It's not out of the woods yet, but it will take some time to recover from what Hispaniola did to it, so I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it doesn't even redevelop at all. But because it's getting very close to the heart of 2011's AHS, waves crossing Africa will continue to bear watching more and more as they may threaten the U.S, the Caribbean, CA, Mexico, Bermuda, and Canada. Emily was barely the beginning I fear. Ryan1000 00:34, August 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Emily
She's up! Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444)
 * Emily regerates we have her again my friends although is a weak depression Allanjeffs 20:54, August 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wee! I was right =D Yqt1001 01:39, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll tell you what this is, it's a big f**king mistake. For god's sake NHC, why re-upgrade this bitch? She is one of the saddest excuses for a depression i've ever seen, and even if she does briefly re-become a TS, she will be heading out to sea anyways. Either way, I am surprised she actually got the re-upgrade now. However, she isn't exactly the longest lasting storm thus far unless she lives for 5 full days like Bret. The time she was a remnant low doesn't count towards her livespan, and neither does the precursor from Don towards his, ect. So thus far nothing has outlived Bret, for god's sake. Ryan1000 04:35, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the season is incredibly bust-like so far. 5 TS's NO hurricanes...I wonder if that means we will get 5 major hurricanes in a row? Well, if the shear forecast comes through (peak shear of 15knts in the tropical Atlantic), I don't see why not I guess. Yqt1001 12:55, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Personally, I've got a bad gut feeling about Franklin, Gert, and Jose... --HurricaneMaker99 23:59, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * No blog until my computer is fixed. OWEN
 * Yqt1001, I understand what you are saying, but interestingly enough, the Eastern Pacific has made up for the activity lost in the Atlantic. I think the two different levels of activity in both basins have to do with the relationship between the two basins (one is active while the other is inactive). What's weird is I feel the basins are in a ghost El Nino. However, once the Atlantic starts getting more active, the Eastern Pacific should start dying down (though not as extreme as last year). Anyone on here can look at my blog for my Eastern Pacific hurricane season forecast. I'm going to make an Atlantic one soon. Suprise11 17:38, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt1001, I understand what you are saying, but interestingly enough, the Eastern Pacific has made up for the activity lost in the Atlantic. I think the two different levels of activity in both basins have to do with the relationship between the two basins (one is active while the other is inactive). What's weird is I feel the basins are in a ghost El Nino. However, once the Atlantic starts getting more active, the Eastern Pacific should start dying down (though not as extreme as last year). Anyone on here can look at my blog for my Eastern Pacific hurricane season forecast. I'm going to make an Atlantic one soon. Suprise11 17:38, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt1001, I understand what you are saying, but interestingly enough, the Eastern Pacific has made up for the activity lost in the Atlantic. I think the two different levels of activity in both basins have to do with the relationship between the two basins (one is active while the other is inactive). What's weird is I feel the basins are in a ghost El Nino. However, once the Atlantic starts getting more active, the Eastern Pacific should start dying down (though not as extreme as last year). Anyone on here can look at my blog for my Eastern Pacific hurricane season forecast. I'm going to make an Atlantic one soon. Suprise11 17:38, August 7, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Emily (again)
Dissipated again, per the 5pm advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 23:54, August 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * I don't really know what this year's PHS is resembling, but thus far the 2011 AHS is reminding me of 2007 in a way; we had many short lived storms thus far, but I think we will have a few of the many storms this year end up dangerous storms(Dean and Felix, to a lesser extent Noel). Ryan1000 04:36, August 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now they are 20% again Allanjeffs 15:43, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily looks the best she has ever been. That doesn't mean she should be re-classified, but she does look more like a real tropical storm than she did in the Caribbean. Yqt1001 11:13, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ex-Emily at 20% on NHC. It would be interesting to see Emily regenerate again in the area that Tropical Storm Cindy formed. OWEN2011 15:17, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ex-Emily is down to 10%. Regeneration is slipping away... Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 18:47, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Emily is STILL at 10%, which is weird, considering its location. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:58, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still 10%? Very weird. She is not giving up! Ilovehurricanes 08:30, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Emily is STILL at 10%, which is weird, considering its location. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:58, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still 10%? Very weird. She is not giving up! Ilovehurricanes 08:30, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Emily is STILL at 10%, which is weird, considering its location. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:58, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still 10%? Very weird. She is not giving up! Ilovehurricanes 08:30, August 11, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Panama
Some model support, it's in a basin of hot water and little shear in the peak of the hurricane season. Every wave should be noted at this point. :P Yqt1001 05:49, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * This thing is really close to land, so it has to get it's act together now until it comes closer to CA and doesn't affect land, or if it misses Central America to the east, it may interact with Cuba and Florida instead, hopefully not being as strong as 91L could be. Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to near 0% chance now. Yqt1001 23:42, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Will this really become a tropical cyclone, or even an invest? Let's wait and see. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:18, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * No offense, but this AOI is a sad excuse for sh!t. I would be stunned if it's upped to medium chance by tomorrow or later today. It's moving into EPac however, so it could be future Greg if the two current invests develop there. However, there's no Franklin coming from this one. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I mean it looks pretty good, but since it's supposed to spread over land, there's nothing we can do but watch. :D CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:45, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cape Verde
Made it bold so it could be recognized as a title but anyways, here is a wave off Africa and south of the Cape Verde islands in the ITCZ. Haven't seen much model support yet, but should be watched for. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:35, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * It doesn't need to be bolded, we can recognize it on the NHC's website just as much here. Anyways, 91L is the more iminent threat, I believe. This wave could be future Franklin however. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ryan, I know this is far out but how strong do you think this system may get down the road? 96.242.128.37 01:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given the fact this wave will be following behind Emily(91L), it actually might weaken upon approaching the Caribbean behind her outflow, if she becomes strong. However, this AOI has a LONG ways to go. The SAL off of Africa is still pretty thick, so this wave has to fight that before it can do ANYTHING. 91L managed to fight it, but can this wave do so as well? We'll have to wait and see. All options are open to this wave, but there is no gurantee it will do anything yet. August has begun though, so from now on, everything bears watching. There's no telling what anything will do; the greatest thing you can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. Ryan1000 02:09, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is the storm in the eastern Caribbean right now right? If so, it's starting to look good, might want to start watching it again. Yqt1001 21:57, August 10, 2011 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Wunderground is showing this..some kind of error? South of Cape Verde right now, on the equator. The NHC hasn't even mentioned this on their TWO yet. Yqt1001 02:34, August 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * No longer on Wunderground.. :S I think this wave is destined for 92L anyways. Yqt1001 23:51, August 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe EX-92L will regenerate in the future. OWEN2011 15:18, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now they are at 10%Allanjeffs 00:05, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmm..it's back now. Yqt1001 00:50, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% now. I changed the header to AOI:Off Africa because it hasn't even been invested yet, but if it gets just 10% more, it will become 92L. This wave(Future Franklin) could be a greater threat than Emily was, especially if it misses Hispaniola. Keep your eyes out on this thing. Ryan1000 14:16, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * In Wunderground its already 92L Allanjeffs 15:58, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * And we have also 93LAllanjeffs 19:16, August 10, 2011 (UTC)

It's invested Ryan. Just because it is only at 20% doesn't mean it can't be an invest. Yqt1001 19:13, August 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * But it's still really disorganized as of now, certainly better looking than Emily's precursor, but still, not exactly the best invest i've ever seen. I usually think that 30% or higher is the limit for an invest because 20% for the next two days doesn't mean it will develop in that time, or even the long run, because they still have a low chance of forming. 30% or higher is good enough for it to be invested IMO. We also have another AOI north of the Bahamas which could be a future storm for us as well. Currently it and Emily's remnants are at 10%, wheras this one is at 20% for the time being. Ryan1000 20:19, August 10, 2011 (UTC)

Now that's more like it! 30% for the next two days. 93L is right behind this one, but it's only at 10%, as is the wave into the Bahamas and Florida in addition to ex-Emily. I guess this thing is going to be our next big story over the next week or two. Ryan1000 02:09, August 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * This is also 40%Allanjeffs 17:49, August 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * This system is disorganized as of now. OWEN2011 22:13, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is a sad mistake for an invest right now. It appears it may eat the unfavorable conditions ahead of 93L, so 93L will likely be the bigger story here over the next week or two, or, if the new AOI in the EPac develops, we will have future hurricane Fernanda. Now is the time of year the tropics start to heat up, and 93L could very well be our first big story of this Atlantic hurricane season, and our second big one worldwide, after Yasi. Ryan1000 23:59, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 30%, but it's holding together "sorta" despite the SAL, which should mean that 93L will get an easy ride across to the Caribbean. This could be a threat to develop down the road still. Yqt1001 11:57, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back up to 40%. Yqt1001 12:04, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow... this is the first time I have seen five invests together at the same time (counting the Epac one). By the way, is it possible that we could hit the "I" name (Irene), if these all develop? Either way, this is still at 40%. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:32, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * The EPac AOI isn't an invest. And yes, it is possible, but I think we will only see 2-3 storms form out of these 4 invests (95L tonight during DMIN (if it does form at all), 92L north of PR and 93L in the eastern Caribbean). Oh this is at 50% now. Yqt1001 18:00, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * While 92L will be entering a field of low wind shear, upper-level winds remain grim. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 30% now...NHC is bipolar with this storm (up and down every 6 hours :S) Yqt1001 00:04, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * 92L's development chances will be hindered due to its proxmitity to Gert. It still has a chance to become Harvey, but the chances are not very high. I could see it possibly becoming Harvey or 8 two days or so from now, if Gert heads further away in that time. Ryan1000 20:45, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like 92L is being fed into Gert. Yqt1001 02:55, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * yeah, now it's down to 10% and later will be gone. Perhaps 92L won't be so much after all. 93L's remnants still could however. Ryan1000 05:39, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * 92L has fizzled and is no more. After being tugged by Gert for 2 days, all that 92L remains is a cluster of clouds with no related thunderstorm activity. All eyes are now on Gert, 93L, and a wave off Africa. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:57, August 15, 2011 (UTC)

08L.HARVEY
This is the wave east of 92L, just got invested according to NHC_ATCF's files. Not on the TWO yet though. Yqt1001 19:12, August 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Which one's which? I'm a bit confused about this and 92L because both are really close to each other and they might merge if they follow each other at the same rate. We'll see about this thing though. Ryan1000 20:23, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * This one just came off of Africa today. Yqt1001 21:52, August 10, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 10% now. Yqt1001 03:26, August 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * 40% now Allanjeffs 17:48, August 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * In my opinion, 93L looks way better than 92L in terms of organization. Maybe 93L will steal the Franklin out of 92L. OWEN2011 22:11, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has the same percentage of development, but it really is looking better than 92L now, and it's also remaining well organized. 92L will take out any unfavorable conditions ahead of 93L so this one has a signifigantly greater chance of development IMO. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:41, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * I got my first "bad gut feeling" today so far this hurricane season...93L just has terror all over it. Plus it's doing really good right now, should be at 50-60% chance at 2AM and maybe a TD by Saturday at this current development pace.. Too bad Hurricane Franklin doesn't have such a terrible sounding name, Gert/Harvey would be better names for such a horrible storm! And with the models slowly pushing the storm into the Caribbean...this storm looks really similar to Dean's wave back 4 years ago today. Yqt1001 03:52, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L is giving me lots of bad feelings because 92L is eating all of the shear and dry air ahead of this storm so 93L is good to go, plus this thing is much farther south and rapidly heading westward at 15-20 mph. 92L is going WNW at 20, but although it will also encounter favorable conditions and likely become Franklin(or Gert), it will likely be a fish, unless it reaches Bermuda in time. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 14:46, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, it lost itself a bit. Now it's down to 30%, and it's still slowly chugging off towards the west. However, given that, it may head closer to the antillies.Too close in my future... Ryan1000 05:17, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 10%, looks like it has lifted out of the itcz finally, and it is struggling to hold it's convection...which is a bad thing. Now it's going to move even more west into the deep carribbean sea and potentially could be a major by the time it gets lifted north into Greater Antilies/Cuba. Yqt1001 13:28, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at near 0% chance. Yqt1001 23:59, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone from NHC, but I doubt that it's fully dissipated, and since it's more southerly than Emily and the precursor to Don, it could still become our first "big" storm of the year. --HurricaneMaker99 15:42, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * This wave is just a disaster waiting to happen. Once it reaches the Caribbean Sea, this wave will likely become re-invested and could easily become Harvey(or Irene) and could then hit the Gulf coast or elsewhere across the Caribbean by that time. Keep your eyes out for this wave. It's not over yet. Ryan1000 20:49, August 14, 2011 (UTC)

It's back! Up to 10% atm. The E Caribbean is full of dry air, but as the MJO comes back into the Atlantic that dry air should disappear. Yqt1001 12:08, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Martinque/Guadeloupe radar mosiac once again prooves its usefulness today. The radar shows the two primary components of 93L. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:40, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20%! TD 8 could be in our hands in the next week. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:50, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L is engaging a pre-Tomas style wave...still can't find a circulation center. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:01, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * I put the odds of formation in the next 48 hours at 45%. Conditions seem favorable, although 93L is starting to elongate itself quite a bit. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:09, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Holy sh!t! It's 2007 all over again! Yqt1001 03:44, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Starting to flare up over the very dry E Caribbean. This wave is by far one of a kind...even Emily didn't manage to flare up over the E Carb much. Yqt1001 13:49, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Continuing to move over dry air and showing no difficulty. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:24, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Can I have a link to the hurricane models? I want to see how strong this thing gets and pre-97L also. 68.200.22.172 18:39, August 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L is currently at 40% for the next two days and is currently in the central Caribbean, but if it doesn't develop, it will be on a headlong rush into Central America and could become Hilary in the EPac. Ryan1000 20:20, August 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60% and high chance now...here we go! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:29, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * The thing about 93L is that it has nearly ran out of time. Unless it RI's (which could happen), the models don't show anything more than another weak TS. :/ Bah, this invest had so much hope in being the first hurricane but it ran out of time. (which could be a good thing, but the size of the system means there could be a huge flooding event from this) Yqt1001 01:41, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I could see 93L becoming future Hilary in the EPac if it doesn't become Harvey here. We'll see. It's been upped to 60%, but time is just about out. Ryan1000 05:24, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I could see 93L becoming future Hilary in the EPac if it doesn't become Harvey here. We'll see. It's been upped to 60%, but time is just about out. Ryan1000 05:24, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

80%! Models have shifted north, so we could see a strong TS out of this. Yqt1001 13:59, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

Oh,no, Harvey is a re-Fifi or re-Greta in my opinion. In fact, two models even make it a basin-crossing storm. Hurricane Andrew (444) 16:06, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

our 8 TD in NATL is born

BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren Allanjeffs 02:09, August 19, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
And it's up! Our 8th TD of the season. NHC thinks it could become Harvey as it crosses by northern Honduras, but it probrably won't be too bad, it's pretty small and it won't be affecting such a huge area. I wouldn't be surprised if it dissipates later today, plus it's tiny as hell; in a way, it reminds me of Marco. Ryan1000 09:24, August 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * It would probably be upgrade to Harvey later but right now in the place i am there is only a few rainshowers and nothing more Allanjeffs 13:47, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I really thought it was not going to intensify... probably is a tropical storm right now based on recon and SFMR reports. Also, the track of this will bring it much, much further north than expected, and it should miss Honduras by miles, so I don't think land interaction will be a problem. A Belize landfall seems to be very probable at this point, probably as SHIPS suggests, as a moderate tropical storm. Darren 23 Edits 13:52, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's possible, but there may not be a Harvey coming out of this mess. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:48, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm fairly positive Harvey will come from this because Land interaction shouldn't hinder much intensification, SST's are warm, and the upper level environment is okay. The only thing hindering this is that it is not stacked well. But in any case, they should upgrade this either at 1800z or 2100z. Darren 23 Edits 17:14, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm fairly positive Harvey will come from this because Land interaction shouldn't hinder much intensification, SST's are warm, and the upper level environment is okay. The only thing hindering this is that it is not stacked well. But in any case, they should upgrade this either at 1800z or 2100z. Darren 23 Edits 17:14, August 19, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey
Oh what do you know... there it is. Darren 23 Edits 17:58, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mmm...wow. Harvey reminds me of Richard, except at this time, Richard was already a 70 mph tropical storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:25, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * The rapid storm activity continues, as Harvey's formation is the fourth earliest date for a season's eighth named storm, preceeded by only 2005's Harvey, 1936's #8 storm, and 1933's 8th named storm. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:35, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * -80 degree Centigrade cloud tops, that's amazing. Anyways, HWRF, which once predicted a major category 4 hurricane in the Gulf, is now looking for a 1000 mbar medium tropical storm to make landfall on Dangriga, Belize. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:44, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * If this thing gets lucky, it could even pull a Humberto and become a hurricane before it hits. However, Harvey is small, close to land, and isn't very strong or too well-organized for it to explode right now. Things could still get a little interesting for Belize tomorrow evening however. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 19:27, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * looks like Harvey its strenghtening. we also have 99l if someone wants to know its near 98l Allanjeffs 19:49, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Harvey will likely not become a hurricane, unless it does a Humberto or Lorenzo intensification. It is not good news for those unfortunate Central Americans. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:57, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * On the contrary. Because of its small size, it is more prone to rapidly intensify. I'm keeping the possibility of rapid intensification open since SHIPS does indicate a 40% chance of it RI'ing 25 kts. I have a feeling this will get to at least 50 kts. If it does enter the Bay of Campeche, remember last year, when a small storm entered the Bay of Campeche? Darren 23 Edits 21:04, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Also remember Keith in 2000? That thing exploded from a minimal tropical storm to a 140 mph 939 millibar disaster in 36 hours. It was also in a similar area. Harvey is now 45 mph. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:39, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Uh, Harvey just rescently jetted a bit southward and interaction with Honduras is knocking this thing down a bit. But it still has time, and if it stalls, then it has more time to explode off of Belize. They didn't have a very pleasant time after Hurricane Iris in 2001, and of course, Karl crossed in to the BoC last year and sucker-punched Veracruz pretty good as a powerful major hurricane, but it only hit Belize/Mexico as a minor tropical storm. Keith stalled off of Belize as a cat 4, but it looped before it hit them, and by the time it did it was only a 1, as it was with it's landfall in Tampico, Mexico. Harvey is very small though, so after it hits the Yucatan it may die rather than survive like Karl did because Karl was much farther north than where Harvey is now. Ryan1000 01:55, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * now at 60mph expect to become a minimal hurricane now Allanjeffs 02:59, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's running pretty low on water and chances. Although it does remind of Keith to a small degree, I think the reformation will be its downfall. (Plus, Keith did ramp up quickly, but it came down just as fast). Jake52 08:47, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says a minimal hurricane is possible out of Harvey...HARVEY HAS AT BEST 4-8 HOURS LEFT TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE DIMINISHING...THE INNER WIND CORE IS SMALL AND THUS A 10-15 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. Yqt1001 15:00, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says a minimal hurricane is possible out of Harvey...HARVEY HAS AT BEST 4-8 HOURS LEFT TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE DIMINISHING...THE INNER WIND CORE IS SMALL AND THUS A 10-15 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. Yqt1001 15:00, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

They're not saying its possible. They were forecasting it hours ago. Now, they're saying "Okay, while it could become a hurricane, it is very improbable and highly unlikely." Darren 23 Edits 15:13, August 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Here's the thing about Harvey. It is only at 60 mph, and it has very little time to strengthen before it makes landfall. I would give it 6-12 hours to become a hurricane before it makes landfall in southern Belize, and the chances are not in favor of it happening. Ryan1000 16:08, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am expecting AT BEST a 70 mph tropical storm. Based on Belize radar observations, Harvey is forming an eye and eyewall. The eyewall is now 4/5 complete. Landfall on the city of Dangriga is within 1 or 2 hours now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:45, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Harvey makes landfall with 60mph winds. Allanjeffs 17:53, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * And at least Harvey wasn't a fail. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:53, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It probrably won't be that bad for the folks down in Belize, not to mention it's small size will localize effects from Harvey. I guess he could bring some beneficial rain for crop growth though. Ryan1000 23:43, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update:now down to 45 mph. Perhaps Harvey won't be so bad for them after all. It's weakening fairly quickly. Ryan1000 00:08, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now over Guatamala. Should be entering Mexico shortly. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:09, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Further weakening now, at 40 mph. It should die out later today. It was no fail, but it wasn't the best storm either. As we say farewell to Harvey, we say hello to Irene. Ryan1000 04:01, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey
Weakened to a TD. Still causing heavy rainfall... Yqt1001 05:55, August 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, it's down and out. However, the remains of Harvey will still cause heavy flooding rainfall across Guatemala and parts of Mexico later today and into tomorrow. The threat from him is not over yet. Ryan1000 05:58, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Its not out it have emerge over the Bay of Campeche and its expect to reach TS intensity. Allanjeffs 20:46, August 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's too far south to become another Karl..but I'm sure that a moderate TS isn't out of the question. Yqt1001 20:47, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * And tiny Harvey...lives. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:03, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

35mph winds now. Yqt1001 23:58, August 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * God, this thing's stubborn. It's staying on at 30 mph, a day after it was downgraded. For god's sake, just die already you little prick! Mountains kill you, not nourish you. Latest NHC forecast actually retakes it to a tropical storm over the BOC later this morning! Ryan1000 02:09, August 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * And it's failed to become a TS before landfall in Mexico. Yqt1001 13:36, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Harvey
Dissipated over the Sierra Madre. --HurricaneMaker99 14:50, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Bahamas
And a new area pops up. It's at 10% for the next two days, but it doesn't have as much of a chance of forming as 92(or 93)L do. Still, it's worth mentioning. Ryan1000 20:23, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 20%Allanjeffs 05:51, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 30%, looks like 95L is on its way! O_O Yqt1001 12:03, August 12, 2011 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Damn, quadruple invests at once! Anyways yes, this is now invested.... Yqt1001 12:26, August 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * The thing about this thing is it is rapidly heading northeastward, so it has a very small window of opurtunity to develop. 92 and 93L are the more iminent threats. Ryan1000 14:40, August 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * This storm reminds me of Shary. Plus this storm looks pretty good right now, all it has to do is be "less frontal" :P. Yqt1001 17:03, August 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to 60%. Yqt1001 17:57, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Shoot...60%? I come home from vacay and there is a quadruple threat! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:30, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmm...based on RGB imagery, I think we might have TD6 in the next few hours...RGB Flash Animation of 95L CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:58, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * However, note that it is expected to merge with a frontal system, so maybe Tropica Depression Six will happen, but there will likely not be a tropical storm. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:53, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * However, note that it is expected to merge with a frontal system, so maybe Tropica Depression Six will happen, but there will likely not be a tropical storm. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:53, August 12, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
In a special update......TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA... Spoke too soon Andrew! (4 minutes too soon :P )Expected to peak at 45mph, so enough to get Franklin, but not Hurricane Franklin. Looks like 95L won the race to Franklin... I was not at all expecting this, but frontal storms form really quickly. Not as fast as Bret, but this was pretty fast..barely 10 hours between investing and formation. Yqt1001 20:57, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah wow. It's moving fairly fast, but darn the wind field is tiny as hell. There must be a wind radius of 30 miles from the center of just "strong breeze" winds. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:41, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Convection is diminishing...going to be this season's sixth short-lived storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:35, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Six is becoming way elongated, but I can't find that circulation anymore. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:52, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

 * WTF??? If you asked me which storm would become a depression by later today, I would NOT have guessed 95L. Oh well. This thing's Cindy 2.0. Ryan1000 05:09, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now a TS. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:23, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Where is everyone? Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:03, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Pop! Here I am. Franklin strengthened a little bit. And not everyone is avail at all times, people need to go to work. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:08, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Franklin, from the looks of satellite imagery, is undergoing extratropical transition. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:08, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * As of Advisory 5, Franklin is at 40 mph, and moving to the ENE at 22 mph. It should not even be here by Monday. Also, just if anyone cares, Franklin has made 2011 the first season since 2005 to have the sixth storm this early. 2008 really did have the activity, but Fay, that season's sixth storm, didn't come together until August 15. 2005 got it's sixth storm (ironically, also named Franklin) on July 21, but I don't think any season between 2005 and 2011 has had that storm this early. Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:50, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Franklin
As TD7 is born, Franklin becomes extratropical. Yqt1001 02:48, August 14, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
This is part of Emily's remnants but under a new name, 94L. Currently at 10%, but heading towards where Emily formed, so I guess it has a pretty good chance of formation in a few days. Yqt1001 11:50, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 20%. Yqt1001 12:03, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not technically ex-Emily though; she's heading into the far north Atlantic. This thing is much farther north than both 92 and 93L, nor is it as well-organized. However, it's heading westSOUTHwest, so it could be more iminent than 93 and 92L now. Don't let your guard down on this one. Ryan1000 14:40, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 50%...Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may see a double hit by cyclones. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:33, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wrong invest CobraStrike. I don't think this one will develop. Yqt1001 19:24, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe yes 30%.Allanjeffs 00:30, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now is 60% we may have Gert of this systemAllanjeffs 17:57, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here comes the 7th tropical cyclone of the season. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:20, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

The peak of the season seems to be upon us. Storms are coming out from everywhere. :P I kinda hope this becomes a hurricane if this does develop at all, I'm don't really want this year to go down as the year where everything was a TS. :P Besides, this storm wont affect land, so it's not like I'm hoping for a hurricane landfall. Right now it looks like this and 92L might merge though..going in the same direction right now, and 92L is going 10mph faster than this storm.Yqt1001 18:42, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * I know this is off topic but can someone tell me a name of a retired storm that only Mexico have ask for in the present years with the exception of Diana? Allanjeffs 19:51, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Roxanne and Opal (1995), Isidore (2002), Stan (2005), Dean (2007)? And please, if you need to, ask it in this forum. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:55, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Thanks but as you see Opal and Isidore affect the USA so they could have ask for retirement and Dean affected the lesser Antilles and Jamaica the question i want to ask is if a tropical system that have only affected mexico have been retired that they ask for that name and thanks i will ask a lot of questions in that forum that you give me thanks a lot. Allanjeffs 20:19, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * So that leaves Stan and Roxanne, two storms that only affected Mexico after 1990 and were retired. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:23, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. '''IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...'''OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TD7 is coming soon! Yqt1001 23:55, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * If this becomes Gert, according to this link here, it would be the fourth earliest date for a season's seventh storm. Only the 2005 Gert, the #7 storm of 1936, and Gabrielle of 1995 formed earlier. Also, it appears Franklin beat Hurricane Fran as the fifth earliest date for a season's sixth named storm, according to that same link. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:07, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC-ATCF has this as TD7, but I'll wait until the NHC confirms it, as the last time I posted about a TD formation before the NHC called it..they started the advisories as TS Don not TD4.. :P I recommend other people do the same please. ;) Yqt1001 01:01, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Man, the train keeps on coming. If this invest as well as 92 and 93L develop, we will already be catching up to 2005's pace. Jose, that year's 10th storm,wasn't named until August 22. If we get up to Irene with all of these invests and get our J name before August 22, we will already jump ahead of their pace. But the ACE/storm in this season is just pathetic since all of our storms thus far (except for Arlene) did virtually nothing to the place(s) they affected, and were short-lived and remained at sea. Franklin, Bret, and Cindy meet that criteria, and Don and Emily didn't do very much either. Heck, the ACE/storm this year will be worse than 2007 at this rate. Still, all invests bear watching as of now. Ryan1000 01:23, August 14, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA... We are just popping those storms this year! Bermuda seems to be the center of attention though. :P Good thing Bermuda is a reinforced as a Soviet fortress. NHC gives this the highest chances of becoming a hurricane so far this year..(other than Arlene), some models show a minimal hurricane out of this. Yqt1001 02:43, August 14, 2011 (UTC)

AHHHH!!! EDIT CONFLICT!!! Either way, we are really going in 2011. Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:53, August 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * Wow, Franklin was only tropical for 30 hours. That's one of the shortest-lived and most pathetic storms i've ever seen, to be honest. And TD 7(Gert) is going towards Bermuda, but will likely do so only as a minor TS. All of the storms thus far this year were short-lived and weak; in a way, this year really reminds me of 2007, a lot of pathetic storms, but when we do get a giant hurricane or two, watch out. It's just that at this time in 2007, we were only at Dean, and we didn't get Gabrielle until September, wheras Gert will likely come later today. Harvey and Irene came at the start of August 6 years ago, but Jose, 2005's 10th storm and the earliest 10th storm on record, didn't become named until August 22. If 93 and 92L can become Harvey and Irene, we just need one more storm before August 22 to jump ahead of 2005's pace. Even though this is a neutral season, it is still incredible to see all of these storms just keep on popping up. 2005 is trying to redo it's fame for named storms. BTW, I made a Blog post about today's activity. Ryan1000 06:37, August 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * Personally, I think this year will resemble 2010 on terms of strength of the storms...2010 started off (excluding Alex of course) with weaks storms..then bam, nearly 5 majors in a row and then many hurricanes one after the other... The SSTs and shear is too low for there to be a 2007 repeat. Right now the only thing holding the CV season back is dry air, and the only thing keeping the strength back is the fact there are no low pressure areas in the hyper fueled Caribbean, which is looking too nice for when 93L ventures in there.. Yqt1001 10:58, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Advisory 3 update: still not Gert, but heading towards Bermuda. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:19, August 14, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gert

 * 4th earliest date for the seventh storm. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:58, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll be suprised if this even goes up to hurricane status, I think the 2011 season will start with seven weak tropical storms (with the exception of Arlene). CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:23, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2007 had a lot of weaklings in the entire season, and as a matter of fact, if you take out Dean and Felix in that year, there were no storms that got past category one intensity. It's just that at this time in 2007 we had our first hurricane in the making, and thus far we have had no hurricanes in this year's AHS. 2011 will likely have some big storms a little later in the year. And the 2011 AHS is the first since 2002 to have the first 6 storms not become hurricanes. Ryan1000 20:34, August 14, 2011 (UTC)

Eyewall is developing, well defined(-ish, it might not be a true eye..it sure looks like one htough!) center appearing on Bermuda radar..Gert might be our first hurricane folks! Yqt1001 03:32, August 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not from how i'm seeing it. It may appear to be developing more convection but it only remains at 45 mph and it's going to be interacting with that approaching cold front tomorrow and Tuesday. Chances are not in favor of Gert becoming a hurricane, but a strong TS(60-70 mph) is not out of the question. Bermuda may be getting some rain but it's nothing compared to the hurricanes they have seen there in the past(Fabian, 1926, ect). 92L isn't looking so good and I personally don't see Harvey coming out of it. The remains of 93L, however, certainly bear watching. Ryan1000 04:26, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * IMO Gert will become a hurricane but that is just my opinion.Allanjeffs 05:44, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 60mph..pressure down to 1000mb. 30% chance of hurricane formation according to NHC in the next day. Yqt1001 12:06, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Gert is expected to pass east of Bermuda today. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:35, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bermuda_Radar_Aug_15_2011_1553_ADT.png passing Bermuda well outside of 100 miles from the center. In other words, due to the small size of Gert, Bermuda was not affected by rain at all and only experienced breezey winds. After subsiding in thunderstorm activity earlier today, convection has once again increased. The 33% chance for hurricane winds in the next 24 hours is the highest chance seen this year, even higher than Arlene. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:17, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gert is deteriorating....sorry, but our first hurricane may not come out of this. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:34, August 15, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Gert
If you thought Don, Emily, and Franklin were fails, Gert wouldn't bring you any relief. After just 2 days and 18 hours of life, Gert is gone. Gert came out of a promising wave and pressed within 150 miles of Bermuda while hitting a maximum intensity of 65 miles per hour I believe. However, Gert did look a lot better than his failing predecessors. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:28, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don, Emily and Franklin are still bigger fails than Gert. Yqt1001 04:38, August 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Guess what? Gert has made history. 2011 is now the first season in over 150 years in which the first seven storms failed to reach hurricane strength (look here). The total opposite is happening in the EPac.In that case, 2011 is only the second season ever to have the first five or more named storms hit hurricane strength (only 1966 had this many from the start). And CobraStrike, Gert is a female name, not a male name. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:12, August 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sheesh. Nice find. The 7 straight tropical storms are the reason why my official Atlantic forecast, even in ENSO-Neutral or weak La Nina, gives a very low 6 hurricanes and 2 majors. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:30, August 17, 2011 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
I didn't see it either, but it appears that an area of low pressure situated directly south of Nova Scotia and north of Gert was designated as Invest 96L this whole time. It was never mentioned on the NHC tropical weather outlook and yet it remains invested...strange. Anyways, Invest 96L is about the size of Texas. With a minimum pressure of 1011 mbar and wind speeds of 25 mph (based on ship reports), don't expect much from this storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:41, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

AOI:Off Africa
This organized wave shows promise as it begins a 7-day traverse across the Atlantic from Africa to the Caribbean. First it has to deal with some SAL but after that its all on its own. Watch out...this may be our next big story. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:41, August 16, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to 10% now. Yqt1001 01:53, August 18, 2011 (UTC


 * The more sophisticated models have shown very good consistency on this wave's track and intensity. Hurricane landfall on S Florida. First time the GFS model has been consistent this whole season. Yqt1001 04:52, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * If 93L doesn't become Harvey, this one certainly could. Things are about to get interesting here. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 05:25, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Invested Yqt1001 14:01, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

The invest has an incredible amount of spin to it, but only limited shower activity. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:21, August 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's only at 20%, but 98L east of 97L is much more well-organized and could more easily become Harvey if the wave near CA can't make it by tomorrow. It's at 80% for the next two days, but it pretty much ran out of time, and it probrably won't develop. This wave scares me more because if it can develop earlier, say once it reaches the lessers, then the Gulf coast is in deep sh!t. They haven't been hit hard by any severe hurricane since Ike in 2008, and everyone else has missed us, particularly in North Carolina and Florida. And because 98L is heading WNW and this one is heading west, it could still run into parts of the SAL, which will weaken it a bit, and it likely won't affect land signifigantly since storms that develop early have little chance of affecting the U.S. and Caribbean. The Bermuda High isn't in the same position as it was last year but it still will recurve any strong hurricanes out to sea if they develop too early. This wave really scares me in the long run. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:43, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40%, 97L gained a lot more convection near the center. Apporaching the Lesser Antilles. Another Caribbean cruiser this year. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:28, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * HWRF prediction...The HWRF predicts another potential big cane'. It predicts that 97L will bring more terror to Hispaniola, making landfall as a 976 mbar tropical storm in 90 hours??? Anyways, 97L is exxpected to emerge into the Atlantic Ocean. The 128 (6 day) outlook from the HWRF sees then-Irene or Jose as a category 1 964 mbar hurricane... who knows what happens next, a Miami strike? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:53, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are quite conflicted on this one to say the least. GFDL doesn't develop it at all while the GFS explodes the thing into a huge hurricane, moving it south of the big islands and up into eastern Gulf as a monster storm pointed right at the Gulf Coast! The 12Z GFS is really interesting. Not only does it go nuts with 97L, but it develops something else off Africa behind 98L, which it develops but takes out to sea and doesn't intensify much. The ECMWF, the same model that correctly forecast Emily's dissipation near Hispaniola, has a similar forecast. It has 97L brushing the southern coast of Hispaniola but remaining intact and strengthening further south of Cuba and heading towards the Gulf. And like the GFS, it also develops 98L but dissipates it fairly quickly and brings in another storm behind it off Africa. This is getting very interesting. -- SkyFury 20:39, August 19, 2011 (UTC)

Things are indeed getting very interesting. Now it's at 60% as it continues to rocket west at 20 mph. I think it already has a cyclonic swirl to it, and it could become Irene(or 9) as soon as tomorrow. Stay tuned. The thing about 97L is the current computer models are taking it onto a collision course with Hispaniola so it could just be a re-Emily if it fails to intensify enough. Ryan1000 02:09, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

The GFS forecast is frickin scary man. Back to back runs now, it has it as a strong hurricane headed right for the Gulf Coast. If anything, the 18Z run made it even more intense. HWRF takes it a little further north, clipping the peninsula of Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba, but still has it headed for the Florida Staits as a Category 2 hurricane in five days. This one is officially making me nervous, especially seeing as I go to school in Mobile, in fact I'm headed back there tomorrow. Moving into my new apartment. -- SkyFury 04:04, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Even though the GFS brings 97L (future Irene) closer to home (greetings from New England...), it won't be that strong and it will stay offshore if the 6z GFS run is correct, though it does forecast a re-Fay to some degree (strengthening over Florida, dumping a lot of rain there as well), so it doesn't scare me too much. As for HWRF, the 6z run gives me the creeps; think Fay's Caribbean life, but as a Cat 3/4 instead of a TS. If this thing slams into Haiti as a major hurricane, there could will be hundreds dead. We need to watch this thing like a hawk; if that recent HWRF run turns out to be correct, it will make Arlene and Harvey look like little worms (though I still carry the fear that Harvey could be a re-Matthew). Oh, and it's at 80% now. --HurricaneMaker99 14:25, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Most of the models are in agreement (Irene) will head across Haiti, eastern Cuba, and after that Florida. The million-dollar question is how strong will it get by then. If it fails to get past a minor TS in strength, then it will just pass through the high mountains in Haiti and die like Emily did. If it gets to 100 mph or stronger before it reaches Haiti, it will probrably be too strong to take down. And HM99, I think we all thought Tomas of last year would kill hundreds of people in Haiti, but in the end Tomas only killed a measly 41 people. In comparison to Hanna and Gordon, they got pretty lucky from him. Ryan1000 14:40, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The thing is, though, Tomas was only a Cat 1 when it was near Haiti, and it didn't even make landfall there. It was a best-case scenario. What if a Cat 3 strikes Haiti dead-on, just south or southwest of Port-au-Prince? --HurricaneMaker99 14:52, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you were one of those 41 people/their family I wouldn't think that would be too measly. Also remember that the NHC has Tomas making landfall as a category 3 storm..not a 1 like he actually did. Yqt1001 14:53, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Go ask Hanna and Gordon how they did in Haiti then. Gordon only brushed by Haiti as a tropical storm, and it still killed over 1,000 people from deadly flooding and mudslides. Hanna was a similar storm. It became a hurricane as it neared Haiti but it weakened to a TS as it brushed the northern part of the country and killed over 500 people. (Irene) would have to work like crazy to hit them as a major hurricane; it only has, say 3 or 4 days until it will hit them. Also, Haiti's track record for retirement is just horrible, given that they didn't retire either Hanna or Gordon, they probrably won't retire anything, or hardly anything. The only two names they could have retired in the history of our 75 retirees in history were Flora and Jeanne, but given they were severe in other places(Cuba, the DR and Florida, respectively), I don't want to use them for their track record, since they didn't hit only Haiti. Inez of 1966 could have been retired by them too but it devastated Tampico, Mexico and other areas of Mexico and the Caribbean rather than just Haiti. Anyways, Haiti isn't the only country in (Irene's) gunsights. Besides, we don't want to see that, deadly hurricanes are BAD things. As I mentioned, it hurts you to see hundreds of innocent people get killed from hurricanes, but fortunately the death toll from hurricanes is dropping in undeveloped countries in the world, but it still remains unfortunately high in certain places... Sidr hit Bangladesh in 2007 and killed over 3,400 people, but it was a fortunate reduction from the hundreds of thousands of people that perished in 1991 and 1970. Stay tuned. If you want to see my latest blog post about (Irene), go here. Ryan1000 15:56, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now it is at 90%. Keep in mind 97L is a huge wave...about as big as Quebec or something. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:56, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Montana, maybe, but this thing could easily fit into Quebec. --HurricaneMaker99 21:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Another HWRF prediction, another major hurricane headed for the U.S. HWRF may actually gain some notoriety (or honor, if they are right, you never know) for creating some big whooper models. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:43, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irene
Recon found winds of 45 kns (50 mph). We have our ninth storm already. Up on ATCF :| Darren 23 Edits 22:52, August 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * And it appears to be strenghtening to.Allanjeffs 23:11, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eh, we don't need the no joke part. And the latest official forecast calls for Irene to become a minimal hurricane as it approaches Haiti and then possibly affects Florida as a TS. However, if it fails to intensify enough, it may die out after making landfall there just like Emily did earlier this year. It all depends on how fast it strengthens IMO. It's heading west pretty fast, at 22 mph, but it will need to get it's act together pretty fast for it to hit as a powerful storm. For the record, 2005 had 5 storms form in August. Thus far we have also had a 5-storm August. If we can get 3 more storms in this month, we will already be jumping up to 2005's pace. However, most of our storms have been short-lived and weak; heck, the first 8 storms of this season didn't become hurricanes, the longest known streak recorded. The EPac also did this in 2003. Perhaps Irene can end that streak. If we can get Lee before August 28, we will start setting records for earliest storm formation. Ryan1000 23:34, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * And speaking of rapid storm formation, Irene is the third earliest date for a seasons' ninth storm. Only Hurricane Irene of 2005 and Tropical Storm Nine of 1936 formed earlier. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:58, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * According to Ryan we tie 1936...anyways. The NHC is really unsure about the long term forecast for this, stating that nearly anything can happen after 3 days. Yqt1001 01:01, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Its true we tie 1936 for the nine storm Allanjeffs 01:04, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * When 3 models show a major hurricane (2 of them over Florida), I think the models see something going on... Thing is, 2 of them (the 2 that go to Florida) show the storm strengthening over Cuba, and the one that brings it to category 5 shows it going through the Caribbean...These models started with the HH data, and the 3 all show a hurricane in 12-24 hours. Yqt1001 01:21, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Haiti still remains the core of most of the models though, and this storm will have to develop very fast because it only has 2 or 3 days until it will arrive in Hispaniola, and you know how Emily felt after she struck them earlier in this month. She basically died out. Could the same Happen to Irene? We'll have to wait and see. NOGAPS is the only big computer model I see that doesn't take it onto or near Haiti, but rather near the northern DR and then onto Savannah, Georgia far down the road. GFDL takes it south of Haiti, into Jamaica, and then becoming a monster cat 5 in the western Caribbean sea/GOM about 5 days from now. SHIPS takes Irene to 105 mph in two days, but down to 70 mph in 5 days. How strong Irene becomes will determine its destiny as it rolls across the Caribbean. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 01:25, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The LLC has been "swallowed" under the COC way faster than the NHC and the models predicted..strengthening should happen here on in. Because the center has been pushed up, the models should also start pushing up too..up to the ridge, which will steer Irene onto every island from where she is now to Cuba, then up to Florida without making landfall on all the islands but Cuba and some of the Lesser Antilles. At least thats what the 0z GFS shows, which is what I fully agree with. Yqt1001 04:06, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The more it interacts with land, the more it will weaken on the way. If Irene can head far enough west then the worst-case scenario is it will miss Hispaniola to the south, Jamacia to the north, and then explode before buzz sawing across Cuba and Florida as a very powerful major hurricane like Dennis and Charley did. If it hits Haiti, it will get knocked down hard. As I mentioned with Emily earlier this year, Hispaniola is not a happy place for hurricanes. Still, stay tuned. This storm is rapidly unfolding as it heads into and across the Caribbean. Ryan1000 04:26, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The situation is very unknown atm..here's a good quote from the official NHC forecast showing the uncertainty today. "IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL." Yqt1001 04:45, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * This little bitch is reminding me of late-season pests like Paloma and Omar. When they are in the right conditions, they take advantage of them as much as possible. If this thing heads further westward due to it's rapid forward motion, the folks in Jamacia, the Caymans, and Cuba better hope it doesn't strengthen as much or Irene will kick the living sh!t out of them. This thing definitely bears watching. Stay tuned everyone. This could get ugly. Ryan1000 05:08, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC confirms the center relocation at the 2am advisory. Winds left at 50mph, recon might go in and find a strong TS tomorrow.. Yqt1001 05:52, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

They're still keeping it on that collision course with Hispaniola though, and it's now forecast to be 85 mph when it arrives at Haiti in about two days. However, it cannot be ruled out it could go beyond that, given it's well-organized structure and the favorable conditions ahead of it. Ryan1000 06:03, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

Irene will cause more damage than Emily if she's a hurricane. BTW, I've made a blog post regarding my own forecast track. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:26, August 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * This thing's starting to unfold pretty quickly, but I wonder how its trip to Hispaniola will turn out to be. Hopefully not the best one, we don't want a catastrophic storm to devastate us here in the states, but we don't want it to be deadly there either. Ryan1000 17:08, August 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not usually one to quote a blog, but this guy correctly forecasted Arlene, Don, Emily and Gert so I'll let him have his fame and show you guys what he thinks on Irene.. It is a wait and see with what happens, BUT what he said about the center being pushed north to the mid level circulation was just confirmed by the recon. It's starting folks, the tropical storm streak is likely to come to an end shortly! Yqt1001 17:30, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NHC still keeps Irene at 50 mph though, and what he said was Irene could scrape northern Hispaniola and hit Puerto Rico, later heading towards the east coast if it continues to shift northward. However, it will still take a beating from the mountains there and if it keeps on going at the westerly pace where it is now, it will end up crossing the entire island of Hispaniola, most signifigantly impacting the DR. Irene needs to change course fast or it will likely end up dying over the island, if not barely being a depression when it's through with them. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:41, August 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Pressure down to 999mb..confirmation that it is stacked..all it needs is deep convection at the core and it's a hurricane..PR will only hamper that a bit, this thing is set. :/ Ryan, the path that Irene will take is still up to debate, but I agree with him, and I have since the center relocated norht the 2nd time. Yqt1001 17:45, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * But I also agree with the NHC, there isn't a single part of hispaniola that isn't in the path of this thing. If it takes the northern end of the path, it iwill chip the northern end of PR and miss Hispaniola to the north. It will parallell southern Hispaniola if it takes the southern end of the path, but if it takes the center(where most of the models are predicting), it will cross the entire island and could die out from interaction with the high mountains. But it's still a bit too soon to tell. Ryan1000 17:53, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's Puerto Rico radar Irene has an eyewall, but the north part is fragmented. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:21, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene is actually moving SW or WSW based on radar obs. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:59, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I was noticing that, I'm not sure why it would be? Supportstorm 23:10, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * 8PM update: Winds up to 60mph, presssure down to 995mb. Direction is still WNW. Slowing down to 15mph. Yqt1001 23:55, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

It's heading much further north than it was anticipated to, but rescently it turned straight west. It will likely head towards southern Puerto Rico, but it's trying it's hardest to not hit Hispaniola. Chances are that will not happen; it can't fight the atmospheric conditions around it for long enough. I'm still expecting it to hit the eastern tip of the DR and cross Hispaniola from there, it's now heading just south of Puerto Rico, or could make landfall on southern Puerto Rico and will then hit Hispaniola. I highly doubt it will head on the northern part of Puerto Rico and miss Hispaniola to the north. That just can't happen; the Bermuda high is in it's way of that. If it can head west far enough like it rescently did now, it will cross all of Hispaniola and die. Irene is trying her hardest not to do that. Stay tuned on what's happening here. Ryan1000 02:02, August 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * 75mph surface winds found by recon..now NHC will only have to confirm that the first hurricane of the year formed. It really is just a wait and see situation for now. Also, I still think Irene is going WNW, but we'll see what the NHC says at 11pm EST. Yqt1001 02:25, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * We also have newly-formed 14W in WPac, and a different storm named Mina by PAGASA also in WPac. However, Irene really is the big story out there, and we must keep our eyes out, more importantly the folks in DR. Ryan1000 02:52, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC leaves it at 70mph, probably to confirm the convection sustains itself. Still going WNW and pressure down to 993mb. Track shifts more northward..following the path I was thinking. Yqt1001 02:55, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * It tried. It looks like it'll make landfall in Puerto Rico in, say 6-9 hours, then cross the DR and Cuba or the Bahamas. And Harvey stays a TD; it could still reintensify into a TS. Most of the models agree on Irene making landfall in Hispaniola, with only UKMET taking it south of Hispaniola and Cuba and then into the GOM as a monster storm. GFDL is more what i'm thinking, taking it across most of Hispaniola nad northern Cuba before entering the GOM as a poweful storm. GFS, NGFDL, and HWRF all take it into South Carolina 4-5 days down the road. Only NOGAPS takes it as far as North Carolina. Whether or not Irene hits Hispaniola, or hw long it does hit them, will determine it's future relationship in the U.S. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 02:59, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Personally, I think this still might have a chance at a hurricane before PR..so I'll be up until 2am tonight to see what will happen for sure. This storm is a wait and see storm for sure, full of surprises. Yqt1001 03:15, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

See my latest blog post for more information. I think it may have a chance to hit 75 or 80 mph when it reaches them, but it's just about to move onshore. Keep your eyes out. She just has so many options open to her. Ryan1000 03:19, August 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * And Irene failed to become a hurricane before PR landfall, so now we can only wait and see how she emerges off of PR. Yqt1001 05:07, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Irene
You all spoke too soon! Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:08, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 80mph I think she will be our first nominate for retirement of this hurricane season. Allanjeffs 13:10, August 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * OMG! I was not expecting to wake up to an 80mph storm today! I mean, did this thing strengthen over PR!?! It looks like it is nearly on the coast still! Anyways, congrats Irene on becoming t he first hurricane of the year! I don't know how she did it, but she did it. She's full of surprises this storm... Yqt1001 13:32, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * She strenghed over Puerto Rico. Allanjeffs 13:40, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bah, that's what I figured. I knew I shouldn't have gone to bed last night. Anyways, current forecast predicts a strong category 2 landfall on the US. Presonally, if Irene stays as strong as the NHC predicts over Hispaniola, there will be the first major hurricane landfall in 6 years on the US. Yqt1001 13:45, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * And also the first east coast landfalling hurricane period since Katrina, and the first east coast landfalling major hurricane since Fran (unless you count Bonnie '98). --HurricaneMaker99 14:12, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, Jeanne in 2004 was the last landfalling east coast major, unless you mean most recent North Carolina major hurricane landfall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 14:35, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * D'oh! Yep, forgot about Jeanne, dunno how that happened. Still, it could be the first east coast MH landfall outside of Florida since Fran/Bonnie. --HurricaneMaker99 14:40, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * D'oh! Yep, forgot about Jeanne, dunno how that happened. Still, it could be the first east coast MH landfall outside of Florida since Fran/Bonnie. --HurricaneMaker99 14:40, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

Now forecast to be a Cat 3 upon landfall in SC. --HurricaneMaker99 15:06, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye, a cloud-filled eye: --HurricaneMaker99 17:01, August 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * I also spy dry air, which will cause some immediate problems in the short term. In addition with land interaction this shouldn't explode in front of our eyes until tomorrow. :| Bah, this is looking very bad. The hurricane season has arrived everyone. Yqt1001 17:06, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't think Irene will be a Re-Hugo or re Gracie, but it is starting to remind me of 1893... This could be the first big storm of the season. Currently forecast to hit 115 mph in Charelston, SC. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 18:21, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow what a night. I sleep and then come home from school and find Irene coming from tropical storm to a predicted major on the EAST COAST. Get ready for the first major evacuation from anywhere in months. But damn the hurricane wind field is puny, like the size of Houston or Indianapolis. The highest chance for a category 4 is so far 4%, that number may rise or drop soon. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:34, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

Update statement issued by NHC, Irene upgraded to Cat 2. 85 kts, 981 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 00:02, August 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * So Irene is now with 100mph I think she is rapidly intensifying. Allanjeffs 00:09, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * And with the update my forecast is obsolete in a matter of minutes. Lets see if Irene bombs. If so, I set my max intensity (right now) at 150-165 mph. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:16, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Damn category 2 already, with land interaction and some dry air. This thing is a fighter and is pretty much blowing up even with relatively unfavourable conditions. >.< US better watch out, this storm is worse than I thought. Yqt1001 00:18, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * New wind speed predictions are up, 125mph peak. 110mph at landfall. Yqt1001 00:32, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Weather Channel's saying this could be worse than Isabel; or in other words, on par with Hugo and Hazel 8-{ --HurricaneMaker99 02:37, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to peak as a Category 4. Forecast landfall location shifted to NC/SC border. --HurricaneMaker99 03:10, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa this thing's taking off. Now it's forecast to peak at 135 mph but if she can keep up the pace she's going at, I wouldn't be surprised if Irene even has an outside shot at C5. This storm has now missed northern Hispaniola and now it's expected to make landfall in NC as at least 115 mph. This could be the first big storm for them since Isabel. Floyd and Fran also hit them pretty good beforehand as well. It's like "I" names are cursed... We've had Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, and Igor all retired in the space of 10 years. Could Irene do that as well? We shall see about that. Of all the big computer models, only NGDFL and NOGAPS take Irene out to sea, GFDL takes it onto the area by Cape Canaveral, HWRF and UKMET take it into SC, and GFS takes Irene onto NC and rocketing onto Long Island and the rest of New England in the long run. It's hard to predict where she will go because the models take it anywhere from the east coast of Florida to missing the east coast altogether. This is what I don't like about hurricanes on the eastern seaboard. They can hit just about anywhere, with no telling if it will change course or not. Ryan1000 03:23, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Sorry I've been MIA. I moved into a new apartment over the weekend and only just got the cable and internet hooked up this afternoon. I had a feeling very early on that this one was going to be trouble. The thing that surprised me was that it jumped this far north this quickly. For a while, it looked like it was going to run itself over the islands. I tell you, this morning's forecast scared the crap out of me. This thing exploded into a hurricane overnight and when I woke up, the forecast had it passing right over my family's condo on St. Simons Island as nearly a major hurricane. Fortunately it's shifted north since then, but even though the models have been trending eastward and northward, I still think this is going to be a big problem for somebody. Anybody living between Savannah, GA and Morehead City, NC needs to be really concerned at this point. Storms that move parallell to the coast are particularly tricky because just a small deviation east or west can drastically change the outcome. Hundreds of miles of coast could be looking at a direct hit from this thing and there may not be much warning. The dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, etc) have Irene moving much further west. The GFDL brings it in over West Palm Beach as a Cat. 4 while the HWRF rakes the coasts of GA and SC as a Cat. 2 with a probable landfall near Beaufort. The global models on the otherhand have more easterly tracks. The GFS takes it over Cape Fear and eventually over Queens (yes Queens, NY) as a substantial system. The 12Z ECMWF follows the NHC forecast almost exactly and also implies a possible threat to NYC. This could be exhilarating. -- SkyFury 05:06, August 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's already starting to make some news, but the track is still unceretain. The cold front off the east coast could still push Irene out to sea, but it is also possible that won't happen, and that will happen if Irene is forced westward far enough by the Bermuda High. I think that it could miss the east coast, but it could end up everywhere from Cape Canaveral to Cape Hatteras, or if it can make it far enough north, *gulp*, New England? This thing has devastation written all over it. The big question is where. I have no idea what this storm could do, but I don't like this one bit. It could be the worst U.S. hurricane in years. Stay tuned everyone. This could get real ugly really fast. Ryan1000 15:41, August 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Irene probably could even be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall, if it's really bad. At this rate, Irene could be worse than Ike (in terms of damage). Also, the "I" hurricane curse continues, (every season's "I" named storm since 1989 except 2007 has reached hurricane status). Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:12, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene now 90 mph, weaker by 10 mph, but still strong. THe NHC is now looking for a North Carolina skid (like what Gabrielle 2007 did) and a landfall on south New Jersey as a 85 mph category 1. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:24, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC expects this weakening to last less than 12 hours, with the peak of Irene still expected to be 125mph. Yqt1001 21:54, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, and although Inez and Ione were the only two "I" retirees before Iris of 2001, since then, we have had 6 "I" retirees. Iris, Isidore, Isabel, and Ivan 4 straight years in a row, and the replacements of Isidore and Ivan, Ike and Igor, were also retired. I think a new adage I could make should be beware storms with "I" names... The end of the forecast period takes it rolling right past the east coast right into New Jersey as an 85 mph storm. If that forecast holds, Irene could be a repeat of the 1893 NYC hurricane, or worse... Keep your eyes out for this storm. Although it weakened, it's likely only going to be temporary and it will continue to strengthen, likely to become a major hurricane in the next few days, and due to it's rapid forward motion as it approaches New England, it could be a 100 mph C2 when it hits. This storm is not to be taken lightly, but it certainly is waking up the eastern seaboard, I hope. I have made yet another blog post about Irene as it targets the east coast. It definitely is making the news. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:18, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Pressure down to 969mb. Winds still 90mph, I think the NHC will find the winds WAAAY stronger when one of the recon planes gets in there. Yqt1001 00:00, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...And the eye comes back into view after being clouded over for 4-5 hours today. Here we go again! 99.58.60.158 01:21, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * First the drastic pressure drop, and now the eye is becoming crystal clear on IR imagery... I'm almost afraid to see what news the 11pm advisory will bring. --HurricaneMaker99 02:13, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eyewall has closed off, dry air still bugging her a bit, but strengthening should start now. But I swear this thing is a MH. The convection is firing around in a circle around the eye, pressures are low enough and this is by far the best looking category 1 storm I have ever seen. Not to mention one of the category 1 storms with the lowest pressure I have ever seen. Yqt1001 04:51, August 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still 90 mph, unbelievably. 969 is a crazy pressure drop. This thing seems primed for strengthening. The satellite presentation has greatly improved. I agree with the NHC in that I don't think the upper level winds are conducive enough for rapid intensification, but it would not surprise me if it reached Category 4 strength, though I don't think it will hit anything at that intensity. And while a Category 3 at Morehead City or Cape Hatteras won't be any fun, it's definately not as bad as one at Myrtle Beach or Oak Island. I'm growing increasingly concerned about the threat to New England. The current Day 5 forecast point takes it right over Nassau County, NY as a 75 knot hurricane, just 20 miles SE of Manhattan. That's too close. The GFDN is currently the only model that takes it directly over NYC. It takes it into Gravesend Bay and into Brooklyn. The GFS has it crossing Long Island very near where Gloria made landfall in 1985 and takes it right over downtown Boston. Given the eastward trend in the model forecasts, I think the GFS scenario is more likely and that Irene probably will not seriously threaten NYC. I also don't think it will that strong when it hits Long Island, not more than 80 knots. This storm could wind up being very similar to Gloria from both a track and impact standpoint. And don't worry Bostonites, even if it does pass over you, I seriously doubt it will still be a hurricane at that point. It may not even be tropical anymore. All this said, Irene still poses a very serious threat to eastern North Carolina. -- SkyFury 05:07, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

Here we go, restrengthened into a category 2 storm. 100mph winds. 966mb pressure.. Yqt1001 06:16, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Irene
Here we go. 100 kts, 957 mbar per the latest interim advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 12:02, August 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's forecast to peak at 125 mph, but given the sattelite imagery on Irene, I wouldn't be surprised if it can jump to ~140 mph as it slowly heads WNW. The latest forecast still calls for Irene to hit only as a category 1 near providence, RI, but if it can get stronger latrer today, that forecast could easily change. Ryan1000 12:18, August 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * I see winds are starting to catch up to pressure. Pressure has actually gone up since last night though. Yqt1001 13:50, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene could be undergoing an ERC, but it is expected to gain more steam through later today and it has a good chance to hit New England as a C2 at least, especially if she hits a 135-140 mph C4 later today. Ryan1000 13:57, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's forecast to maintain 80 mph winds INTO MAINE. That's it, this isn't fun anymore, now this is downright scary. --HurricaneMaker99 15:00, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * For the record, if Irene was brought hurricane force winds into Maine, it would be only the seventh time EVER that happened (the 1869 Saxby Gale, Hurricane Carol (1953), Hurricane Edna (1954), Hurricane Donna (1960), Hurricane Gerda (1969), and Hurricane Gloria (1985) were the other six to do that). Also, at this rate, Irene could be the first Category 4 U.S. strike since Charley in 2004. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:21, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * For the record, if Irene was brought hurricane force winds into Maine, it would be only the seventh time EVER that happened (the 1869 Saxby Gale, Hurricane Carol (1953), Hurricane Edna (1954), Hurricane Donna (1960), Hurricane Gerda (1969), and Hurricane Gloria (1985) were the other six to do that). Also, at this rate, Irene could be the first Category 4 U.S. strike since Charley in 2004. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:21, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * For the record, if Irene was brought hurricane force winds into Maine, it would be only the seventh time EVER that happened (the 1869 Saxby Gale, Hurricane Carol (1953), Hurricane Edna (1954), Hurricane Donna (1960), Hurricane Gerda (1969), and Hurricane Gloria (1985) were the other six to do that). Also, at this rate, Irene could be the first Category 4 U.S. strike since Charley in 2004. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:21, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

An 80 mph hurricane isn't a very strong one though; normally hurricanes with 100 mph or higher winds do signifigant damage from storm surge, ect. Weaker hurricanes do damage from heavy rains and flooding. Rainfall will be a less signifigant impact from Irene because it's going to be moving very fast when it hits New England. The latest NHC forecast leaves Irene at 115 mph, but pressure dropped a milibar and it's heading NW at 12 mph. It has a descent shot at further strengthening, but how strong it can get today and tomorrow will determine how bad it will be for New England down the road. Ryan1000 15:16, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It'll still be the worst storm I've ever seen, though. (Sorry for sounding like such a n00b; this is my first 'cane.)
 * On the lighter side, did you know that the name Irene has its roots in the Greek word for "peace"? --HurricaneMaker99 15:39, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * 120mph winds now. Pressure down to 954mb. Yqt1001 17:58, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's forecast to be a C4 by later tonight/tomorrow. However, Irene is expected to only nick at the outer banks as a MH and then head into New England, particularly The eastern end of Long Island and then in Rhode Island, by then possibly as a 100 mph storm. This storm looks like it will be a re-Bob or perhaps a re-Carol of 1954. It's heading much farther east than the 1938 storm did or Gloria of 1985, but it will likely end up farther west than Edna and the 1869 Saxby Gale storm. A lot of the models still do turn Irene off the east coast, but 60 miles can make the difference between life and death, especially with these "nor-easter" 'canes. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:56, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Think about it. Irene is forecast to be a 115 mph category 3 once it nears North Carolina. If it does bring major hurricane force winds to the state, it will the first one to do so in 15 years, the last being Fran of 1996. And look what Irene is expected to be near Long Island: a 100 mph category 2. This will be the first time in 21 years since Bill of 1990 that a category 2 storm has affected New York/Long Island. And by then, Irene will be HUGE. Irene is already big now. Oh, and Irene temporarilly lost an eye. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:06, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Uh, Bob of 1991 you mean. It is still forecast to gain steam as it heads northward, and CobraStrike, Fran hit the heart of North Carolina as a category 3 hurricane and caused not only a massive storm surge damage, but further inland flooding as well, only about two months after Bertha. Irene is only forecast to clip the Outer Banks as a minimal major hurricane. Emily of 1993 only clipped by the Outer Banks as a 115 mph major hurricane, and it did very little damage. What i'm more concerned about is what it will do to New England... If it clips the Outer Banks of NC and does nothing else, then damage will be minimized. Emily of '93 did just that. New England is what i'm worried about, not NC so much. Yes there likely will be heavy rain and destruction there on Cape Hatteras, but it won't be as bad as it will(or could) be for the folks up in the northeast. Ryan1000 00:01, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think Irene is going through an EWRC. Yqt1001 01:27, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * It looks like the northeastern part of the eyewall is starting to erode, but it may quickly get it's act together and intensify into a C4 tomorrow. Either Irene is getting a taste of that shear or it's succumbing to dry air. That's what's weakening it's northeastern quadrant, not an EWRC. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 01:35, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * While it may not be undergoing EWRC, the people on Wunderground certainly think it is, but yes. The northeast eyewall is eroding a bit. I do spy concentric banding though, and its main act is not here yet. Anyways, NHC hunters found extrapolated pressures of 950.8mbar.
 * Irene's northeast quadrant has now rebuilt, and now it looks like it's undergoing an EWRC, it looks like a larger circulation will overrun it's smaller inner core, which may hinder it from strengthening as it will expand in size, but it will also weaken slower as it heads towards eastern Long Island and Rhode Island, which spells bad news for the folks down there. Stay tuned for more info. Ryan1000 03:15, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Pressure still dropping, now 952mb. Recon is finding stronger flight level winds on the outer eyewall rather than the inner, pretty much confirming the EWRC. I still think this storm can reach category 4 strength, however as it grows it is going to take more time for it to spin up..pretty much completely ruling out category 5 winds. Yqt1001 03:25, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

The southern end of that cold front is still shearing parts of Irene though, and it has a chance to peak where it is now or hit 135 mph briefly, but not too much stronger, i'm thinking. It will slowly move towards the northwest today, during which Irene has her last oppurtunity at C4 strength, by tomorrow it will rocket past North Carolina's Outer Banks(latest NHC forecast calls for a 105 mph landfall on Cape Hatteras), and by Saturday I can see a landfall from this thing at the eastern Long Island/Rhode Island area, possibly still as a 100 mph storm. The threat from Irene cannot be ruled out, but anything past 135 mph seems unlikely as of yet. Still, stay tuned. Ryan1000 04:18, August 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Winds dropped to 115mph, pressure down to 950mb. Second time winds have gone down and pressure has gone down. Last time this happened Irene jumped from a category 1 storm to a category 3 storm in 2 advisories. Will she jump to category 4? Maybe.

ERCs are tricky things. It's almost like Tommy John surgery for a pitcher. He can come back and pitch better than ever or he might struggle to regain his prior form. It's the same with hurricanes and ERCs: they can come back like gangbusters or never restrengthen at all (Opal is a good example of the latter). Despite the fact that shear has increased a little, I don't think the latter will be the case with Irene. Pressures have actually fallen rather than risen. The near term threat hasn't changed. The Outer Banks are still looking at a major hurricane, which could get really ugly, especially if that storm surge gets into those interior bays. I fear North Carolina may be looking at a repeat of the severe and widespread coastal flooding they saw with Isabel in 2003, possibly worse. As bad as it looks for NC, I'm more concerned about the northeast. The latest model runs are scary. A few of the most respected models (GFS, ECMWF and HWRF) have all shifted markedly west. The GFS now takes it over New Jersey, driving the worst of the storm surge right into New York harbor. It drives the right-front eyewall right over Manhattan Island, though the hurricane has to pass over much more land in this scenario before it gets to New York. This sudden shift makes me really nervous. And I'm hearing very grave language from a lot of experienced forecasters. Dave Bernard, meteorologist for CBS News Miami, said there are really two scenarios with Irene: bad and worse. That's not good. These are very densely populated coast areas being targeted here. And equally scary is how few people in the northeast are taking this seriously. Another thing to point out is that the northeast has been heavily saturated by rain over the past couple of weeks, making it very susceptible to flooding. This is really scary folks. I think it may be about time to start praying. -- SkyFury 07:50, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

I'm a bit surprised the models have shifted west since last night, Irene is starting to curve as it approaches the trough, and it's heading NNW now, which will soon be north and then NNE. Either Irene shifted farther west than anticipated last night or it will beat the front sooner than we thought. And i'm further surprised it's winds are still falling, despite the pressure falling as well. The latest forecast takes her back up to 125 mph and then hitting NC as a major hurricane, and far down the road, it could pass dangerously close to the folks in NYC... The last major hurricane to directly impact New York City was the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, which hit central North Carolina as a powerful storm and remained a 115 mph C3 when it passed over NYC from the south. The thing is back in 1821, NYC was nothing compared to what they are today. Furthermore, the most rescent hurricane to directly hit them from the south was the 1893 hurricane, but it only hit them as an 85 mph C1. Since then, nothing, but they have had lots of very close calls. Although I think Irene will rebuild her structure, it has to happen later today or very early tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon or Saturday morning, Irene will be heading onto the North Carolina coast, and by Saturday evening or on Sunday we could see her bearing down on the folks in New England as a ferocious 100 mph storm. And god forbid Irene will pass over NYC at that intensity. If Irene hits New England, I would prefer a landfall on Rhode Island or eastern Long Island(or miss them altogether) rather than take it over NYC. True it will be destructive if it hits there as a 100 mph storm but it will be a lot better than if it passes NYC as a 100 mph storm. Stay tuned. The people in New England need to leave NOW. Ryan1000 15:35, August 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Who think the name Irene will be retire by the damage it has cause until now? Allanjeffs 16:31, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * If Irene were to miraculously spare the east coast from any significant impacts, I'd give it a 50-65% chance of retirement, since it's already caused about ~$150 million in damages in the Caribbean, and it's still beating the crap out of the Bahamas as we speak. Up until now, I think the Bahamas are most likely to want Irene gone. HurricaneMaker99 17:27, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * It looks like the southern side of the eye wall has gotten really weakened..which might be holding back intensification for now. Once that fixes itself out..probably very quickly, I can still see a category 4 storm here. Yqt1001 16:53, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna agree with the NHC here; high-end Cat 3 sounds about right to me. Of course, if it could pull an Earl and avoid restrengthening altogether, that would be perfect. --HurricaneMaker99 17:27, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Bahamas have seen much worse than Irene though, the deadliest hurricane in their history was the 1926 Nasau Hurricane, which killed more than 250 people there. So IMO it's all up to the U.S. if Irene will really go, if it hits the east coast hard enough, but the Bahamas see hurricanes like Irene just about every 2-3 years. It's not that unusual, really. However, it is certainly nerve-wracking for the folks on the eastern seaboard. Ryan1000 18:12, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmmm... Irene hasn't changed at all in intensity today(by that I mean top winds)... That being said, it might be weaker than a major hurricane when it ends up in North Carolina, but it can't be ruled out just yet. Keep your eyes out for her. She's far from over. I still stand by my forecast of a 100 mph landfall somewhere in southern New England. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:08, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Dry air got sucked into her southern core during the EWRC so until she repairs that she might not strengthen. Pressure is continuing to drop though. Recon found a pressure of 948mb! Yqt1001 21:21, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

Irene has proven that she can fix her problems rapidly again. Radar shows the eyewall is almost complete and the dry air hole is gone and the outflow on the south is improving again. Should start strengthening soon and catch up to her low pressure. Yqt1001 21:42, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

Irene is growing really big, possibility of 10 ft storm surge. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:30, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

The storm's strongest winds don't extend out too far, but the TS force winds are rivaling those of Floyd and Isabel, so lots of areas could be affected by this massive hurricane. If Irene can make it to C4 tomorrow, things could get ugly for the folks in NC and New England. Ryan1000 22:54, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Just got invested a short time ago... to early for model runs but this could follow 97L as a formidable hurricane threat to a huge part of the basin. Watch out, I've got a feeling we might approach 2010/1995 numbers at this rate. Darren 23 Edits 22:54, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30% !!!Amazing!!Allanjeffs 23:46, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hallelujah! 50% on the second day. This is a large system. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:29, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models do not do much with this one. The GFDL and HWRF don't develop it at all and the global models don't make it any more than a tropical storm and dissipate it fairly quickly while keeping it out at sea. -- SkyFury 20:44, August 19, 2011 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Aww sheesh, how many invests do we have to deal with? 98L is actually 2 invests! While 98L is ESE of Cape Verde, 97L is S of Cape Verde. Lets see what this invest combo does. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:01, August 19, 2011 (UTC)

Wait, what? What area are you talking about? There are no other disturbances. -- SkyFury 20:41, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * As far off as it seems, there is, southwest of 98L. I can't believe it. I have never, ever seen this type of activity since 2005. Darren 23 Edits 21:00, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Invest_99L_Aug_18_2011_1800z.jpg you don't believe me, I just uploaded a picture. See that swirl in the middle? That's 99L. 98L is the much larger, dominant wave east of Cape Verde. You can check with CIMSS too. This is....unbelievable. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:35, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * That town ain't big enough for the two of 'em. You put two hyenas in closet, one of them's gonna eat the other. I bet you dollars to donuts that we won't get two storms out of that. 98L is bigger, but 99L has stronger convection. Looks like the Atlantic's version of Friday Night Fights. Time for the main event! Ding ding. Somebody bring me some popcorn with extra butter! lol -- Sky'Fury '''04:15, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 99L has be de-activated Yqt1001 16:20, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The're apparently merging, and this thing is a fucking oval. It's so elongated in size, very unorganized, and it's moving into further unfavorable conditions down the road. It'll probrably be a fish, if it even does develop. Ryan1000 16:40, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

98L and 99L
Apparently there going to merge, so here is both of them in one section. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:57, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Is this a rare occurence, or is this common? Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:37, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * I haven't heard of a time two invests became one, but it likely has happened before, just not so often, especially at their given position. Ryan1000 23:39, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * All the way down to 20% as an elongated and cooled invest. The invest remnants may pose problems down the road, but probably not this guy. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:06, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * No way Jose. This invest fails... I wouldn't be surprised if it dies later today(August 21 UTC). Ryan1000 00:09, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 10% and still moving NE...no chance. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:19, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm stunned this thing is even on the TWO... Ryan1000 02:11, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

20% now. Yqt1001 23:58, August 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Near 0% now. Yqt1001 06:16, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 10%. Yqt1001 17:59, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back up to 20%... little bugger's hanging on for dear life. --HurricaneMaker99 17:40, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
This just came off of Africa. At 20% atm, models are confused and take it in all directions but east and south. Yqt1001 14:49, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30% now Yqt1001 23:58, August 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Here we go..40%. Yqt1001 06:16, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Make that 50%. Ryan1000 12:18, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models available on Wunderground almost unanimously make this a hurricane, albiet a fishy and not a terribly strong one. HurricaneMaker99 13:03, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Last time all the models agreed on a hurricane, Irene showed up and went off course and is now a MH. :P Models suck this year, but I could see this becoming a hurricane nonetheless. Yqt1001 13:52, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The big question about 90L is will it curve around the Bermuda High and miss land altogether, or will it tear apart the Caribbean/US coastline? it's way too soon to tell, but Irene certainly isn't looking so good for the folks up in New England... They will be feeling the worst effects from this storm this weekend, but I don't know how strong it will be when it hits them, if it hits them as a 100 mph hurricane or stronger, the're in deep shit. Ryan1000 14:20, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 60% chance now. Yqt1001 17:58, August 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * 90L will have to deal with the outflow of Irene before it can get a chance to get going, but in the long run, this wave could spell big trouble for the folks in the Lesser Antillies. Keep your eyes out for this wave, but more on Irene now. Ryan1000 22:00, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

Latest advisory, 70% now, but no changes with Irene. This could become Jose pretty easily, but how strong will it get? Irene stole all the warm waters north of the Caribbean, and the cold front recurving Irene into New England may later recurve this thing out to sea, if the Bermuda High doesn't. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:14, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90%. Looks like Jose/TD10 is coming soon. Yqt1001 05:49, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

Yup, looks like it. Pretty much all the models develop it, though they take it out to sea. But I'll be really surprised if this isn't Jose by tomorrow afternoon. -- SkyFury 07:54, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10
This year continues to spew out storms. Irene gets all the attention though. This is expected to be named Jose and then go away harmlessly..expected to peak as a strong TS. Another one... Yqt1001 11:50, August 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * This season is spitting out one epic fail after another... Irene may be getting all the attention, but Jose will be absolutely pathetic, just like Cindy and Franklin were, and to a lesser extent Bret and Gert, but they did impact land. Ryan1000 15:15, August 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Don't discount this storm yet. If it moves west rather than north this could become another Irene. Models aren't certain so this bears a bit of watching for now. Yqt1001 16:43, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * If this storm heads farther west and tries to follow Irene, it will run into her outflow and actually has a better chance of dying there. In the first several days after a hurricane passes through an area, the atmosphere is usually unfavorable. This is what happened to Tropical Storm Iris as it tried to follow Hugo of 1989, Frederic as it tried to follow David of 1979(but it eventually got into the GOM and did become a very bad storm for Alabama), just days behind it, Fiona of last year also died after it followed Earl, so the same will probrably happen with Jose as it follows up behind Irene. However, if two storms are in really close proxmitity to one another, like Ivan and Joan of 1997 PTS, the outflow of the former won't affect the latter. In the case of (Jose), it will probrably end up either following Irene and ending up dead by her outflow, or die as indicated by the NHC forecast. Ryan1000 17:38, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can see a hurricane coming out of this, but more like a weaker Julia than a Fabian or Irene. But then again, I and several others thought that Gert would become a 'cane, and she served to disappoint. God, it would have been so much less bittersweet if Gert or Harvey had been the first 'cane instead of Irene... --HurricaneMaker99 17:43, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * The conditions are not in favor of TD 10 developing signifigantly though. HM99, this storm is elongated, it is moving towards 98L, it will turn north into higher shear in response to an approaching mid-latitude trough. You can't ignore the facts; see the NHC's forecast discussion for more info. Yes conditions may change but they aren't forecast to 3-4 days down the road. Ryan1000 18:12, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
No harm in starting this early, like we did with the EPAC and WPAC, now is there? --HurricaneMaker99 15:29, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% - 25 deaths and $213 million are respectable fatality and damage totals, but probably not enough to earn retirement.
 * Bret: 0% - The resilience was admirable; however, considering the lack of any major effects, retirement is out of the question.
 * Cindy: 0% - I feel kinda bad booing her, since she survived into some really cold waters, but... BOO
 * Don: 0% - Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing.
 * Emily: 2% - A lot of promise gone to waste here, though there were fatalities.
 * Franklin: 0% - I smell fish...
 * Gert: 0% - Aside from the odd fresh gust in Bermuda, nothing.
 * Harvey: 5% - Minor damage and a few fatalities, but nothing in comparison to Matthew.


 * I'm going to wait until later here. If 91L (Emily) of this year happens to do what her 2005 predecesor couldn't(that is, cause enough damage to be retired), then I'll throw in my percentages because as of now, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement. Thus far, I'd be surprised if we have ANY names nominated. Arlene didn't hit Mexico hard enough, and every other storm thus far did virtually nothing. Ryan1000 05:03, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine:
 * Arlene - 15% - It killed two dozen people, but Mexico has seen worse than her, and Arlene's coming back in 2017.
 * Bret - 0% - I don't think Bret's going, unless he's some tyrant name.
 * Cindy - 0% - See you in 2017!!!
 * Don - 1% - Affected land, dropped 2/3 inch of rain in Brownsville, that's it. No way Don's going.
 * Emily - 4% - Not Hanna or Gordon bad.
 * Franklin - 0% - See Cindy's section.
 * Gert - 0.01% - Only because she forced TS warnings for Bermuda.
 * Harvey - 5% - It wasn't a fishie, but if Matthew last year didn't go, then Harvey won't.
 * Irene - 10% - She has affected so many countries, but it's too soon to tell if Irene will really go.
 * Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather consevative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather consevative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather consevative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 15% - Damage was minimal, but a quarter 100 deaths? That's a hefty amount. However, Arlene did not cause many big problems to Mexico. Mexico also has been reluctant to retire what most would think to be terrible storms (well, technically all (except the fishies) are). If Karl was not retired, not Arlene. Bret: 0% - Thanks for your ability to fight the shear! Cindy: 0% - Cold water fishy Don: 1% - Don had hopes to bring the South Texas drought to a...well...away from exceptional, but Don did nothing but drop a few barely beneficial drops of rain. Emily: 5% - Emily caused deaths and damage especially to Hispaniola, but not enough for any true retirement. Six: 0% - Want to retire a number? Request a new number today! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:49, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * Arlene: 20% Cause some impact in Mexico it kills at least 25 but like they said here Mexico have seen worst things.


 * Bret: 1% He survived shear and just that, The 1% is for the effect on the Bahamas but retirement is not gonna happen.


 * Cindy: 0% What does she do???NOTHING the NHC just throw a name like that but I admire her by her duration on cold water


 * Don: 1% That 1% is just for the damage in the carribean and just that, not even give Texas the water that it need just after landfall it dissipites Fail


 * Emily : 3% A lot of promises but not even one she do.


 * Franklin: 0% you and Cindy are just gonna be best friends, you two have a lot in common especially that both of you are fails.


 * Gert: 1% just because she affected Bermuda, but hey honey you are staying no matter what.Allanjeffs 14:54, August 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * okz well here r my forcasts
 * arlene 18% deaths and damage but not alot
 * bret 1% cause of the bahamas but no real retirement
 * cindy 0% ur on the train to 2017
 * don 2% cause of the caribian but not really
 * emily 6% well alot of brushing land
 * franklin 0%ur also on the train to 2017 =D
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda
 * don 2% cause of the caribian but not really
 * emily 6% well alot of brushing land
 * franklin 0%ur also on the train to 2017 =D
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda

Very Mid-season forecasts
Why call it very mid-season forecasts? Because most mid-seasoners do it in early August. Well, welcome to the true mid season, the beginning of September (almost!). As we near the second half and the most active half, we already have a taste of what the first half did. Here is my prediction: 17 total systems, 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. My ACE calculations lead me to believe a near normal statistic, around the 70-110 range. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:49, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

My prediction was 18 tropical cyclones, 17 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and 1 Category 5.

Now, doing it like CSU does it, we have 6 tropical cyclones, 6 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes, 0 Category 5's, and a ACE of 10. My post - August 13 activity is 12 tropical cyclones, 11 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 majors, 1 Category 5, and a ACE of 140.

For more information, go to my blog:

Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:09, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * With the activity so far, we might challenge 2010's total of 19 named storms. If we keep spitting out storms at this rate into November, and double the rate in September, there should be no reason we don't reach 20 storms. I still stick with 5 majors, only because the basin is warm and little shear..as the SAL slowly lifts, the CV season will probably be huge...so far the pattern is looking like most CV storms will go into the US too. Yqt1001 16:21, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Although we may have a higher chance of destruction, we can never accurately forecast damages or retirements; last year almost permanently taught me that fact. I don't truly know if we will have our streak end this year, but I hope it does, every year without a landfall just makes it worse. However, I must agree that at the rate we are going, we indeed have a descent shot at catching up to 2005, possibly 2010 and definitely 2004 and 2008(in numbers). Ryan1000 01:29, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * See much more detailed and more precise information, see my forecast blog. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:08, August 15, 2011 (UTC)

Irene seems likely to hit the USA as a hurricane...or will it be down to TS strength (and dodge the Outer Banks) before a New England landfall?(Yesterday NHC maps had it hit NYC,but the track keeps moving east).--12.144.5.2 19:26, August 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * A re-Bob or re-Carol seems more likely than anything as of now, but the 20-year drought for New England is probrably going to end this Saturday. Irene may end the drought there, but elsewhere in the U.S, we're rather silent; although the 5.8 earthquake shook up a large chunk of the eastern seaboard, overall damage was insevere. Irene won't be that way. Keep your eyes out for her over the next few days. Ryan1000 22:55, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

US Hurricane Drought
Yes, it's Eric! SkyFury is back for another season by popular demand. I am currently enjoying my retirement from Wikipedia but am happy to rejoin the forums for the hurricane season. I normally get back to the Wiki for the new season by July, but this summer has been really busy for me and, despite the activity, am only just now returning. I have received messages of distress about the state of affairs in the forums, but from what I can tell, this Wiki has done nothing but get better in my absence. Ryan1000, I know I have some missed messages from you (one from forever ago) and I intend to address those tomorrow, when it's not 2:30 in the morning lol. Tonight I come, as I usually do, bearing historical food for thought. A hurricane has not made landfall in the US since Ike in 2008. If a hurricane doesn't hit the US before September 2, it will be the longest drought since 1980-1983, and that's only if Iwa's brush of Hawaii in 1982 is discounted. If one doesn't hit before September 21, it will be the longest drought since the Civil War. -- SkyFury 06:33, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well then, welcome back here! (I'm a new user BTW, so I don't think you know me). I also want to add the fact that we have gone 5 years, 9 months, 3 weeks, and 2 days (i.e. six years!!!) since a major hit the U.S (unless you count Ike). If this continues until October 24, that's a record major hurricane drought. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:20, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Welcome back! (I'm relatively new too, but you probably have a hint of a clue about me since I was around for a bit of 2010) The forums have really calmed down now and are stable ever since darren retired. He comes back everynow and then and downcasts YE and the EPac, but his surprise attacks aren't often. Ryan is doing a good job operating the forums now. :) What I'm curious about is your thoughts on this season. So far we have had a bunch of weak storms..one after each other at record pace. When do you think the season will get it's first major? When will the season start kicking out hurricanes? If ever? Yqt1001 13:30, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L (future Harvey) could easily end that drought; from what I'm reading of the HWRF model available on the WunderMap, it's forecasting Harvey to have a pressure of 933–935 mbar as it scrapes Cuba and heads just north of the Yucatan. What happens after that is anyone's guess, but judging from the re-curvature shown in that model, Texas could easily see a direct hit from Harvey. They need the rain, but no major hurricanes, please! --HurricaneMaker99 14:14, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * And better late than never; welcome back, Eric :) --HurricaneMaker99 20:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, welcome back SkyFury! Since I just came on the forums, let me introduce myself. I am CobraStrike from Austin, Texas and I am 11 years old. Anyways, coincidentally, as this section on the US Hurricane Drought continues, Rick Knabb of the Weather Channel published an article on what he felt were the top 5 most overdue cities. They are:
 * 5. Tampa - Not one hurricane since the costliest hurricane (inflation adjusted) of 1921 has directly affected Tampa. They were lucky in 2004 to not get hit by a small Charley, which went a little further south.
 * 4. Savannah - Not a major hurricane has affected Savannah, Georgia since 1893. Even the National Hurricane Center calls Georgia hurricanes sleeping giants.
 * 3. New York City - The large population makes it vulnurable, and the number of "close calls" makes people think the Big Apple is a hurricane shield.
 * 2. San Diego - Not since 1858.
 * 1. Honolulu - Has never been affected by a hurricane, yet has had close calls.
 * CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:21, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, what's baffling to me a bit more is our East coast streak in the U.S. We have not seen a major hurricane in the U.S. since October 24, 2005, discounting Ike of 2008. We usually see an east coast hurricane in the U.S. once every two years, but we have gone for 6 years without an east coast hurricane in 2011, since Katrina in 2005. That is the longest streak I can find in the history of ever. A close runner-up was an almost from Ginger of 1971 to David of 1979, but Hurricane Belle hit near NYC as a minor hurricane in August 1976. The closest runner-up for no Major hurricanes streak in the U.S. was, well, the civil war, almost since record-keeping began. I didn't think Hurricane Wiki would get so out of control ever since you left Eric, but the good news is you're back now. And CobraStrike, the biggest overdue city in the United States is actually Miami, Florida. Despite having a history of over, say thousands of major hurricanes in the past 150 years, the last time Miami was devastated by a monster hurricane was in 1926(Andrew of 1992 missed them a teeny bit to the south). If Miami was hit by a monster category 5 hurricane today, it would cause over 150 billion in damage because Miami has buit up so much since Andrew, and after Miami comes NYC, then Houston(New Orleans already got devastated), then Tampa/Savannah, and to a lesser extent places like Virginia Beach, Virginia and Atlantic City, New Jersy, perhaps Jacksonville or Charelston as well. The only epically devastating cyclone thus far this year was Yasi, which kicked the living sh!t out of Queensland last February, and became one of the worst storms in Australia's history, let alone the costliest discounting inflation. Innisfail, Mission Beach, and Tully were wiped off of the face of the earth from Yasi's massive storm surge, estimated by some to be higher than even Katrina's. It's a good thing that that 155 mph, 300 mile wide monster didn't hit a bigger city like Townsville or Brisbane, and fortunately it caused only one (indirect) death. Ryan1000 16:57, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Yqt, I agree, the lack of power displayed by the storms thus far in 2011 is surprising. This is the latest we have gone without a hurricane since 2006, and most of the seasons that wait this late have been down years. That said, we've had seven names scratched off the list, which is a damn lot, but not one of them has been a hurricane. 2002 waited until the 'G' storm (Gustav) on September 11 before it had its first hurricane. No season in the naming era (since 1950) has gone this far down the list still hurricane-less. I remember the 2003 EPAC season went all the way down to Ignacio before they had a hurricane. They did not have a major hurricane that year for the first time in forever. It's really difficult to say when the season will start showing some force. Emily was a big freaking mystery. The models were clueless. It should've turned north and threatened the US as at least a borderline hurricane but instead it stalled off Hispaniola and died. That was bizarre. Yeah Ryan, beginning in 2004, hurricanes started trending noticably to the south through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. That in part explains the lack of any in the Carolinas and northward, but that doesn't explain the lack of any Florida impacts. Only four hurricanes (officially) have made landfall in the US since 2005, all of them along the western Gulf Coast, three in Texas and one in Louisiana. I will point out that Ernesto in 2006 and Hanna in 2008, which hit virtually the same spot in southern North Carolina, were so close to hurricane strength at landfall that the difference is negligible. However, you are right, the US eastern seaboard is in a major drought. The Atlantic coast has not had a major tropical event since Jeanne in 2004 (although Katrina, despite its lower intensity, did knock Florida around pretty good). North of Florida, there has not been a significant hurricane event since Isabel in 2003. Even more incredibly, there has not been a major event in New England in 20 years (Bob, 1991). It's like the Florida Panhandle's big drought before Eloise in 1975. And don't get me started on New York City. In my opinion, that's another Katrina waiting to happen. If they get so much as a Cat. 2 coming as far west as Brooklyn, they're in deep shit. -- SkyFury 23:14, August 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * But it's almost the opposite in the East Pacific somehow. Eric, we have had 6 hurricanes thus far in this year's EPac season, counting Greg's rescent upgrade, and if we get Fernanda to become a hurricane, it will mark the first time in the history of EVER that the first 7 storms there became hurricanes. The ACE in this year's EPac season has already jumped ahead of where last year ended at. The ACE per storm thus far is about 6.8(and counting) in EPac. 1992 had a total ACE per storm of about 11 in the EPac; 1990's ACE/storm was a little higher. Heck, at this rate, if Fernanda becomes a 'cane, all of this year's EPac storms will be hurricanes. In the case of the activity stuff Eric, Danielle wasn't even named at this time last year and keep in mind 2010 AHS still got to 19 storms, 12 canes, and 5 majors(yet somehow no U.S. hurricanes), so don't count out on this season yet, since the heart of 2011 is still yet to come. Now with the overdue places. Yes, I do agree with you a major hurricane, let alone a 100 mph or stronger storm, hitting NYC would be a horrible disaster for the U.S, but as I mentioned, a category 5 hurricane hitting Miami would be the worst-case scenario for destruction in the U.S. They have had a longer drought than any other major city in the U.S. except for NYC. The last, and to date, most severe major hurricane to directly hit Miami was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. True Miami has had a lot of near-close calls since then but no direct hits by any hurricanes of the intensity of the 1926 storm. Andrew, as I mentioned above, missed them by only 10 or 20 miles to the south, but it missed them far enough not to directly hit them. I can't imagine what a hurricane like the 1926 hurricane would do to Miami today. It would be a disaster without parallell in U.S. history. NYC would be severely damaged by a 115-125 mph major hurricane today, but Miami would be butt f**ked by a 150-160 mph category 4-5 monster. Although there are many overdue places in the U.S, Miami takes the cake. I'm not doomcasting here, but i'm pointing out some very important facts about how lucky we really have gotten since the monster(s) of '04, '05, and '08. This year could just be the last straw... Ryan1000 05:01, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm not saying it wouldn't be really bad, but Miami is a well-prepared city and an Category 5 taking direct aim at a major city is a one in a million shot. Only three have made landfall anywhere in the United States in the past 160 years. Granted, if a major city was going to take a Cat 5 on the chin, it would probably be Miami, but the odds are still astronomical. That said, I am by no means dismissing the threat. A Cat 4 similar to the 1926 storm would be devastating. However, I would not expect a high death toll. The government and emergency personnel in south Florida have an organized and well-rehearsed evacuation plan. I would not expect another Rita. The damage would be extremely severe. Miami Beach would probably be all but wiped out and Coral Gables would be laid to waste. But I wouldn't expect a death toll much higher than Andrew. New York City on the other hand is a nightmare. The entire metro area is extremely low lying and sits right at the vertex of a concave coast. A 5-8 ft surge in Florida would be a 10-12 ft surge in NYC. An 8 ft surge hit the coast of Brooklyn during the 1938 hurricane despite the fact that the storm made landfall over 40 miles away. Like 15-20 million people live in Manhattan and Brooklyn alone. Even if you only had to evacuate a third of them, it would still be a logistical nightmare. Where would you put them all? Where do you send them? There are no direct routes away from ground zero. Brooklyn and Queens are on an island. Emergency managers up there have no experience with hurricanes. They'd have to figure it out as they went. The skyscrapers of Manhattan would act to funnel the storm surge, making it even worse. Anyone still on the streets when the storm hits is dead. A Category 3 or greater storm coming through Jamaica Bay and up through the city could kill over 1,000 people and do over $100 billion in damage. The economic cost would be at least twice that. Wall Street would be shut down for weeks, possibly months. The floors of the stock exchange would be flooded and gutted. Subways would be flooded and shorted out. It would take weeks just to pump the water out, let alone get them running again. Streets would be flooded or clogged with debris. Who knows how long it would take for the water to recede. The biggest commercial port in the US would be shut down. The economic capital of the world would be crippled. Even a Category 3, let alone a Category 4, could make 9/11 look like a traffic accident. -- SkyFury 19:08, August 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * The only thing I was saying is that a category 5 hurricane hardly leaves anything behind in it's wake. A category 3 hurricane causes severe damage. A category 5 causes catastrophic damage. Mark my words, and mark them good, there is no city on the entire gulf and east coast that is ready for a category 5 hurricane, and Miami definitely isn't. You can prepare for a category 5, but can never be ready for a category 5. What you're saying is NYC is so much more vulnerable to hurricanes that a cat 3 hitting them would be worse than a category 5 hitting Miami, ect, and I can completly understand that. I'm smart enough to know better, I know NYC is a tucked back coastal town, I know there are 15 million people in the 300-square mile city and I know evacuating all of those people would be next to impossible in a day or less, especially if a hurricane is approaching them at 60 miles an hour, like the 1938 hurricane did. New England hurricanes start to rocket in forward speed once they pass the Carolinas, and they can arrive to a landfall in hours, which can make evacuation decisions critical if they are made too early in places that aren't hit. What i'm saying is category 3 hurricanes destroy many structures in their path, but category 5 hurricanes destroy everything in their path, and only a handfull of cat 5's haven't been retired in the NAtl. Cleo was one, which was a rare fish cat. 5, Edith was another, which struck an unpopulated part of Honduras known as cabo gracias a dios(cape thank god), before hitting the U.S. as a cat 2, and lastly, Emily of '05, which, despite causing widespread destruction across the Caribbean and Mexico, didn't become retired. I personally don't think Ethel of 1960 really was a cat 5, but if it really was, it only tapped the gulf as a minor TS. What I was saying is a category 5 hurricane destroying 90-100% of all the buildings in Miami might do more damage than a category 3 destroying 60-80% of NYC's buildings simply because they leave behind hardly nothing, not to mention a cat 5 in Miami could also devastate a gulf coast city like Houston, Tampa, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, or Mobile(no offense Eric). The big difference between Miami and NYC is how the people think about hurricanes. People in NYC say "you know, we don't get hurricanes here", and people in Miami say "Ah, we get hurricanes all the time; this one won't be any different from the others". Neither of them think right; the people there need to get ready every hurricane season. Every season is a gamble, with millions of lives at risk. Anyways, I don't want to do any doomcasting or argue over which hurricane would be worse since it's obvious neither scenario is good. Back to the seasonal activity, Eric, we have had 8 storms but no hurricanes thus far. I asked you earlier on your talk page what you thought 2011 would be like for the NAtl, and even though the NAtl hasn't produced anything catastrophic as of yet, worldwide we have had one(Yasi), as I mentioned earlier, it was Australia's costliest cyclone in history excluding inflation and second costliest counting inflation behind Tracy. Since we have had no hurricanes out of our first 8 storms thus far in 2011 AHS, does this season remind you of 2007, or do you not think we will have so many hurricanes ths year altogether? If the 16-storm forecast average remains true for the rest of 2011, we have to have 8 consecutive hurricanes starting with Irene to get the forecast numbers. I think we will only have 4-6 hurricanes, assuming the total numbers remain 16-17 storms. But it all depends. Ryan1000 01:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * While a lot of storms so far in 2011 have fizzled, the season as a whole has been very active. We've already had nine storms and there's still a week of August left. The GFS brings two new storms off the west coast of Africa in the coming days, one of which is already a medium risk area. We could very easily be on the 'L' storm by the beginning of September. This makes me nervous about what September holds. Conditions overall in the Atlantic have greatly improved and we're already seeing the danger of that with Irene, which could turn out to be a very serious event. The Bermuda High has been much weaker the past couple of years than it was from 2004-2009. However if significant ridging could build ahead of one of these African waves, which seem to be coming in bunches, we could very easily see a major Caribbean hurricane. So while we may not have as many hurricanes as originally forecast, the forecast for total activity is still looking good. And remember, it only takes one bad storm to make it a bad season (see Andrew). -- SkyFury 05:29, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * In the case of Irene, it has a good chance to make landfall in the U.S. as at least a 100 mph C2, but that depends on if it continues to rapidly intensify into a category 4 or 5(more probable for a 4), and then ends the streak for east coast hurricanes. There is no gurantee the eastern seaboard will reccieve a category 3 landfall, especially if it misses the outer banks, but it is more than likely it will be at least a category 2 when it does make landfall. I would be surprised if Irene doesn't make it to a 135-140 mph C4 today. However, yes Eric, given the fact we haven't had our first hurricane until Irene came along, we might not have as many hurricanes as we were expected to see; i'd expect about 6-7 in the entire season. However, as you said, it can just take one(perhaps Irene) to make 2011 a notable season. Although the Bermuda high has been weaker than normal, it certainly won't be enough right now, especially for Irene, it has a pretty good chance to not miss the entire east coast. Although Wilma is considered to remain the most rescent U.S. major, I don't want to exclude Ike of 2008 since it was the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history and 5th deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. since 1950. Only Diane, Audrey, Agnes, and Katrina were deadlier since then, so in my book, Irene would be the first in 3 years. Ryan1000 12:38, August 24, 2011 (UTC)