User blog:Andrew444/Are we going to see an Alpha this year in the Atlantic?

I know many users here are starting to get frustrated with the lack of activity in the Atlantic. In fact, on Storm2k (I do not have an account there, I just read it for fun) some users were forecasting we would only see nine to ten storms. However, it actually is not too late for an activity explosion. Using data from the seasons 1995-2012, the active Atlantic period, I can tell you where we might end up in the naming list.

Below, seasons are organized in decreasing amount of post-August 20 storms per season.

So far, 2013 has produced 5 tropical storms but no (major) hurricanes.

Looking at the seasons below, we find...


 * 2005 had 19 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2005's pace, 2013 will end with 24 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Gamma).


 * 2010 had 16 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2010's pace, 2013 will end with 21 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Wendy).


 * 1998 had 12 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 1998's pace, 2013 will end with 17 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Rebekah).


 * 1995 had 12 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 1995's pace, 2013 will end with 17 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Rebekah).


 * 2000 had 12 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2000's pace, 2013 will end with 17 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (Rebekah).


 * 2001 had 11 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2001's pace, 2013 will end with 16 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Pablo).


 * 2011 had 11 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2011's pace, 2013 will end with 16 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Pablo).


 * 2012 had 11 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2012's pace, 2013 will end with 16 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (Pablo).


 * 2003 had 11 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2003's pace, 2013 will end with 16 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Pablo).


 * 1999 had 10 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 1999's pace, 2013 will end with 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Olga).


 * 2008 had 10 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2008's pace, 2013 will end wirh 15 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Olga).


 * 2004 had 10 total storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2004's pace, 2013 will end with 15 total storms, 6 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes (Olga).


 * 2007 had 10 total storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane after August 20.

Following 2007's pace, 2013 will end with 15 total storms, 5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (Olga).


 * 1996 had 9 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 1996's pace, 2013 will end with 14 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Nestor).


 * 2002 had 9 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2002's pace, 2013 will end with 14 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (Nestor).


 * 2006 had 6 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes after August 20.

Following 2006's pace, 2013 will end with 11 tropical storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes (Karen).


 * 2009 had 6 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane after August 20.

Following 2009's pace, 2013 will end with 11 tropical storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane (Karen).


 * 1997 had 3 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 major hurricane after August 20.

Following 1997's pace, 2013 will end with 8 tropical storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 major hurricane (Humberto).

Based on the averages, 10 additional tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes will form, placing us at Olga. So we still have plenty of time left. Do not give up, and never say never!

And to answer my question above, we will likely not reach Alpha this year, but we'll still be very active nevertheless.

P.S. Just for fun, I will include these five seasons:


 * 1) 1950 (15-10-7): 20-10-7 (Van)
 * 2) 1969 (15-9-4): 20-9-4 (Van)
 * 3) 1933 (13-8-4): 18-8-4 (Sebastien)
 * 4) 1887 (12-8-1): 17-8-1 (Rebekah)
 * 5) 1961 (10-7-6): 15-7-6 (Olga)

And that's my blog post!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:08, August 20, 2013 (UTC)