Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)

Pre-Season - May
Might as well have this section here, just like we do for the EPac.

January Extratropical Cyclone
I may be over-excited, and I probably am. But this European model run looks interesting. A 985 mbar low with a solid organization! Could this be Alex? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_8.png Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 00:04, January 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * No way! I'd be astounded to see Alex form in January! I really hope it's right... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:56, January 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * I saw from someone on Weather Underground that the system will likely be extratropical by that point, but there was a very small, nonzero chance of SD One or SS Alex forming before it becomes extratropical. I'd really like to see One or Alex this early! Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 20:06, January 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Update: 10% chance in 48 hours and 30% chance in 5 days now. Clearly, Pali is stealing the attention of this low, but 30% chance is quite high for an Atlantic storm in January! It supposedly already has winds of 60-65 mph, which means if this thing forms it will likely be Alex, not One. Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 22:55, January 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, there's a system in the Atlantic AND the Pacific in JANUARY. I would love to see a subtropical Alex out of this. But what's even more astonishing about this system is that it's moving the wrong way, and it's still super El Nino. The tropics are going insane in the middle of winter! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:15, January 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * This thing actually have a big chance of becoming Alex imo. Right now its in a place like Chris and Cindy used to strength. It just need to  transition and we have our first named storm of the season.Allanjeffs 23:12, January 9, 2016 (UTC)

This would be quite interesting if Alex formed now, he would put quite an early start to the season. One that would be for the record books. Owen 00:24, January 10, 2016 (UTC)

Are you kidding? Two storms in the Atlantic and CPac, and in the middle of winter? This is really INSANE! If this becomes Alex, which I'd say has a good chance of occurring, it could be the earliest Atlantic named storm on record! This January is truly one for the record books. And, strangely, it seems like the SHem is not that active lately (except for Ula). Steve820''' 🎉2016 has arrived! 🎉''' 01:24, January 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * This system is looking better now, but is still not an invest, surprisingly. I think we should get 90L this afternoon and development chances will likely be upped to 40-50% in 5 days. Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 16:37, January 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * New TWO is out for this system, which now has an eye. It says it's now producing hurricane-force winds, and the chance of development is 20%/40%. Subtropical hurricane Alex, possibly? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:41, January 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * This has an even better chance at becoming Alex now. I think it's safe to say that hurricanes no longer follow their own logic.....  Leeboy100 Hello! 03:33, January 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40% in 48 hours, 40% in 5 days, but STILL not Invest 90L. I'm really rooting for Alex here, although it appears it may have weakened a bit from yesterday. Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 21:28, January 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might still have a shot at being Alex, I don't think there's much stopping it except for cool waters typical of the time of year. I am rooting for Alex to form also, and this is so amazing to watch! Steve820 Talk to me 02:48, January 12, 2016 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
this is getting more closer... -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  16:16, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * So it's finally an invest. And it's also gotten more subtropical-looking recently. By the way, if it makes landfall in Africa subtropical, I think that will be the first time a (sub)tropical system has made landfall on the west coast of Africa. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:49, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Tomorrow is the day. If we don't get Alex tomorrow we likely won't get Alex this month. To me, it looks like it has weakened since mid-day, when it briefly looked like a hurricane. I still don't see it as an invest though. Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 20:09, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * This thing is looking subtropical now. It will likely be named today. We are getting closer! http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc16/ATL/90L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20160113.1415.goes13.x.vis1km_high.90LINVEST.45kts-989mb-260N-325W.100pc.jpg Bob (talk) - Form Alex Form! 15:40, January 13, 2016 (UTC)

70/70 and avisories could be issued later today... -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  18:10, January 13, 2016 (UTC)

We will probably get Alex at 5pm. It have been so long since a ts develop in January.Allanjeffs 18:21, January 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Subtropical Storm Alex is on the way. Already developing an eye feature, wouldn't be surprised to see a January hurricane here. Owen 19:17, January 13, 2016 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Alex
confirmed by NHC -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  20:21, January 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * And there we have it, the earliest forming tropical/subtropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Owen 21:04, January 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Not quite; that record belongs to the 1938 season, whose first storm (which became a hurricane) formed on January 3. Still, I'm flabbergasted that this is happening. This must be the first time on record that an off-season Atlantic storm and an off-season EPAC storm existed simultaneously. This is unreal. (For the record, Alex's debut advisory puts the system at 45 kts/990 mbar.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:52, January 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's January 13th and we have subtropical storm. 50 mph and 990 millibars. I have no words........  001ʎoqǝǝן Welcome to the weirdness! 22:05, January 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is ASTONISHING. I can't believe this happened. 50 mph seems like an underestimate for this system, it's rare to see eyes in storms under 60 mph. I think Alex will likely peak in the 60-65 mph range right before it turns extratropical on Friday. Bob (talk) - ALEX HAS FORMED! 00:36, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Some   50knots vectors found so a 60mph storm is likely at 9pm.Allanjeffs 00:51, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is pretty unbelievable, and I'm quite shocked. It is now the earliest named storm on record, but of course, not the earliest of all time in the basin. I agree 50 mph is an underestimate. I would put early Alex at around 60 mph instead. Steve820 Talk to me 01:24, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * 60 mph now. 988 mbar pressure. I hope Alex becomes a hurricane! Bob (talk) - ALEX HAS FORMED! 01:56, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow. The Northern Hemisphere (Specifically Northwest) continues to amaze this winter. Alex is an amazing looking storm, and is astounding to see in a super El Nino year (although with global warming this might be more common in the future) A subtropical hurricane from Alex seems unlikely, but I do expect to see Alex strengthen to at least 65 mph while subtropical. What a way to start the Atlantic for 2016, although I don't think this automatically means it will be hyperactive this year. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:02, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Usually this list is used for active or destructive seasons. ex 1992,1998,2004 and 2010. This might be a repeat of those. Alex is looking really good might become a hurricane today.I am not sure though if sub tropical hurricanes exist.Allanjeffs 07:12, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 70 mph and a pressure of  984. Alex is now the second strongest storm in January on record in the Atlantic just below Alice. A little more organization and we have a hurricane.Allanjeffs 08:49, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is one of only 4 tropical or subtropical storms to form in January in the Atlantic, after the 1938 hurricane as Dylan mentioned, a tropical storm in early January 1951, and a subtropical storm in 1978. Alex is the 3rd latest of those, beating only the 1978 storm. Also, Alice and Zeta crossed into January from December 1954 and 2005. However, this is the earliest (and only) date an off-season Atlantic and EPac storm were simultaneously active, the previous record was held in 2012 when we had two storms in May in the Atlantic and EPac (Alberto was active May 20, which was the day Aletta dissipated and Bud formed). Also, this thing is going to move over the central Azores islands as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane, so there could be some impacts from this. The only other January storm to affect land was Alice '54, which caused minor damage and no deaths when it moved into the lessers. When I woke up for my birthday today, I didn't expect to see this; it's quite a present to withold indeed! Ryan1000 12:33, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Happy birthday, Ryan!!! I just checked ATCF and... um... AL, 01, 2016011412,, BEST, 0, 308N, 287W, 75, 981, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 15, 90, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:24, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Allan: a cyclone can only be a hurricane if it's fully tropical, so hurricane-strength subtropical storms don't count (STS 1 from the 1979 season is an example), but the way Alex is looking, I wouldn't be surprised if it became fully tropical later today (if it isn't already). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:40, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Happy birthday Ryan! What a great present, huh? Coincidentally Alex's 2010 incarnation formed on June 25th, which is my birthday. And it could get better, because Alex is at 70 mph and 984 millibars. It could become a hurricane. If it does, I'll be so happy. Come on Alex. You can do it! 😀. I'm on an Amazon Kindle fire. Which explains the emoji.  001ʎoqǝǝן Welcome to the weirdness! 14:16, January 14, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Alex
uglier and uglier for the Azores... -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  14:43, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict 2x) Pretty sure the NHem missed the memo that it's WINTER, but I'll take what I can get. Say hello to the first January hurricane in six decades! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:43, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow. I wasn't expecting a fully tropical hurricane with that advisory! Indeed, Alex does not understand what "winter" means. The new forecast shows further strengthening to 90 mph now. This is becoming bad news for the Azores, and I think they might be caught by surprise at a January hurricane. Insane to see the first January hurricane in 61 years, but let's just hope Alex isn't very destructive. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:03, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex is now one of only 3 January hurricanes ever in the Atlantic, and only the second to form in the month, after the 1938 hurricane. This is also the first time an off-season hurricane formed in both the Atlantic and Pacific in the same year. Also, Alex is looking to be the strongest off-season landfall in the Atlantic, since it's expected to move right over the central Azores at this intensity. Ryan1000 16:35, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm not even surprised anymore. Watch it rapidly strengthen to a category 5. Just kidding (hopefully).  001ʎoqǝǝן Welcome to the weirdness! 00:21, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * People in the Azores might be really surprised to see an actual winter hurricane strike them and cause impacts. Alex, you don't know what 'winter' is! If this same storm happened in the middle of summer, it'll almost certainly have been a powerful C3+ monster threatening the Azores with huge scary impacts. Since it's winter, this is weaker than it otherwise could have been if it happened in the summer, and I shudder to think of how it could have been during summer time. It's strength right now should most likely be its peak strength while tropical, and extratropical transition is expected soon. I'm looking at the records and it appears that Alex might be the strongest January forming storm on record, having beat Hurricane One from 1938's strength. If you count Alice which formed in December, it'll be the second strongest Atlantic TC to exist in the month of January. The satellite pictures still show a good looking eye in the middle although it's not as good looking as before. It's been making me feel like Alex is staring at me. P.S. Happy Birthday Ryan!! :) Steve820 Talk to me 00:47, January 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alex hasn't been doing too well as of recently, at least in terms of looking tropical. The entire southern edge of the convection is gone now, and it might become post-tropical sooner than expected if it doesn't have convection wrapped around the center again soon. I do think Alex reached 90 mph in between advisories, as it looked great until around the 5 PM AST advisory, when the eyewall began to erode. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:04, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * The Azores don't experience hurricanes very often, the last time they got hit by a hurricane was Gordon of 2006, which passed over the southern islands as a weak, disorganized hurricane. But Gordon formed in the middle of the season, an off-season Azores hurricane (let alone TS) landfall has never been recorded before. However, due to Alex's small size and low intensity, it's unlikely it'll cause enough damage to the islands to warrant retirement, even though it's certainly an extremely rare sight to behold. Ryan1000 03:19, January 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * I agree that a small category one hurricane shouldn't be that bad, and plus the Azores are so hilly they won't really have issues with storm surge. There would have to be a major hurricane-related disaster there to warrant retirement, and let's hope that doesn't happen. In terms of intensity, Alex has weakened slightly, but the current satellite presentation looks about the same if not a bit better than 3 hours ago, so if this continues a hurricane landfall is pretty certain. Crazy to see the strongest January Atlantic tropical system in history approaching landfall in an area unusual for any hurricane to reach. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:47, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex is now passing just east of the island of Terceira in the Azores, still at category 1 strength. It'll probably become extratropical later today or tomorrow though. Ryan1000 14:25, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alex
nearly dead... -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  14:46, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex
bye Alex! -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  22:25, January 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alex, we will miss you. See you again in 2021, it sounds like you're coming back! Bob (talk) - ALEX HAS FORMED! 23:01, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * 2022... lists rotate every six years, not five :P Farewell Alex, you wonderfully strange thing. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:01, January 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alex is just extratropical. Not fully dead yet. In fact it's going to go back to hurricane strength according to the forecast. But it's near death.  001ʎoqǝǝן Welcome to the weirdness! 00:21, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Bye, Alex! Won't come again until 2022! It's finally dead as a TC, but its extratropical remnants will linger through the weekend, and it's forecast to die out south of Greenland. Steve820 Talk to me 02:43, January 16, 2016 (UTC)

90Q.INVEST
what the... is this a sign of hyperactivity? --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  20:29, January 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Subtropical systems form occasionally in the South Atlantic, but it's still somewhat rare to see storms there. I hope it becomes a fully tropical system though, as that would be neat. I'm not sure if the South and North Atlantic activities are related though in terms of the North Atlantic season though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:50, January 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Whoa, it´s a fully tropical depression now. Wasn´t expecting that. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:33, January 7, 2016 (UTC) (Forgot to login)


 * It dissipated some time ago, and unfortunately was not named. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:16, January 7, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
(Retirement colors:   0% , <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% ,  10% ,  15% ,  20% , <font color="#4A0">25% ,  30% , <font color="#CF0">35% ,  40% , <font color="#FD0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#F80">55% ,  60% ,  65% , <font color="#B00">70% ,  75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%   (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),   100%   (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))

Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions (It's early, but why not?)
 * Alex - <font color="#AAC">1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022! Bob (talk) - ALEX HAS FORMED! 17:32, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

I guess I will begin mine, even when it's still quite early: <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#AAC">1% - Despite its extreme earliness, it didn't do much save for some Azores impacts.