Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: North Central Gulf of Mexico
I haven't checked for model support but it looks very conducive for development there, i'd say starting tomorrow. A cluster is moving south and there's perfect high level outflow around the area. -Winter123 00:24, 28 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Ok no one else sees this. There is a symmetrical mid or low level circulation with good outflow and some convection, though it appears to be waning. We'll see how it is when we get the visible sat. back in the morning. -Winter123 04:41, 29 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It's expected to move inland with no development, but it could bring some heavy storms to... NEW ORLEANS! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:38, 29 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It's now located near Alabama, and GFS actually predicts development. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:22, 2 August 2008 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Whoa! What the hell just popped up in the Gulf of Mexico? This thing came from nowhere and jumped right to medium risk and a recon target. This is a little too close for comfort...although it's so close that if it does become something, I doubt it'll have much time to get very strong. -- SkyFury 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I think it might be from the previous system in the Gulf, so please see above, under 91L. INVEST, which it has surprisingly become! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC)

You could sort of say this is the same system, or part of it. Expected to hit Texas or Louisiana, probably as a TD. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:28, 2 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Moderate risk of development by NHC. I agree with your assessment of a TD max. - Enzo Aquarius 04:20, 3 August 2008 (UTC)
 * What? How is this an invest? There's a single thunderstorm being hit with shear and dry air. Though if that thing moving over LA and the thing moving WNW over cuba combines with it it may have a chance. -Winter123 07:05, 3 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, someone seems to think more highly of it: TCFA. --Patteroast 10:23, 3 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Edouard
Wow. Expected to hit the Houston area as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:00, 3 August 2008 (UTC)
 * And if this year (and last) are to be followed it'll become a hurricane right on the coast. -Winter123 23:49, 3 August 2008 (UTC)
 * From what I've seen with Dolly, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing become a hurricane now. This season is really throwing some curve balls. - Enzo Aquarius 23:58, 3 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Whoa, what the hell?! Edouard? 24 hours ago, this thing was nothing, now NHC says it has a chance to become a hurricane before it hits Texas. Man, that water in the Gulf is scary as hell this time of year. -- SkyFury 00:24, 4 August 2008 (UTC)
 * 65mph Tropical Storm at landfall. - Salak 13:56, 5 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Edouard
Yet to clear Houston and it's already dropped to a Tropical Depression. - Salak 20:53, 5 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off Guinea
This one might follow 98L in its tracks. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:51, 31 July 2008 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Supposed to head into the south Caribbean as a cat 1. Yikes! Here comes another 'un. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:25, 2 August 2008 (UTC)
 * This one's a ways off from being anything. It's a wait-and-see kind of invest. -- SkyFury 17:48, 2 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Low risk of development, but lots of room for it to do so. Wait it out, could turn into something easily. - Enzo Aquarius 04:25, 3 August 2008 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Yay, NHC predicts medium-risk for development, developed from the northern remnants of 98L. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:36, 1 August 2008 (UTC)
 * It's not remnants, it IS 98L. Tell them to look at a satellite archive and see how stupid they are. -Winter123 04:33, 2 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Total model dissagreement here. Some models head it into the open sea and toward Europe, while others head it as far west as the eastern Gulf. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:27, 2 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Somewhat impressive. I wouldn't be shocked if this becomes something. -- SkyFury 17:47, 2 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Although there's a moderate risk of development, satelite imagery shows...literally a few light rotating clouds? - Enzo Aquarius 04:24, 3 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks like it's developed a little cloud cover over its circulation. Still doesn't look hugely promising that it'll end up doing anything. --Patteroast 13:54, 3 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Based on WV id say it has no chance, at least for 3 days or so. -Winter123 22:12, 3 August 2008 (UTC)

Why was it dropped again? Its north of PR and holding together and headed for Florida. Watch out this could pull a katrina. -Winter123 18:31, 5 August 2008 (UTC)
 * It could what??! All models (12/12) predict its remnants to turn northwards before hitting Florida. In fact even the remnants of 90L has a 5x better chance of pulling a Katrina. Please do not make such cataclysmic pronouncements! I only predict ten re-Katrinas for the entire rest of this century. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:10, 5 August 2008 (UTC)
 * only 10? yeah id like to see 10 storms hit new orleans as a cat 3 in the next 100 years. Unless you mean 10 hurricanes hitting FL in 100 years, then thats possible but unlikely. 10 TS's is likely. -Winter123 18:40, 6 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I recall only five in the entire historical database that had any significant effect on the New Orleans area (1893, 1909, 1915, Betsy and Katrina). This thing's just scattered showers right now and wind shear sucks. I personally try to stay away from the apocryphal, but that's just me. -- SkyFury 05:29, 7 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Cape Verde
The ITCZ has been tooting endlessly! Wait and see. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:31, 2 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if this is the same but this looks like Bertha #2. Same location and a well defined MLC at least. I'd be surprised to see this NOT become a hurricane. -Winter123 18:37, 6 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Huh? It looks kind of weak right now. The system near Mali, however, is predicted to strengthen by many models. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:00, 7 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah it died. See below. -Winter123 02:12, 8 August 2008 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Hmm, I guess it un-died. SHIPS predicts a cat.2, supposed to head near Hispanola, medium-risk on TWO. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:33, 10 August 2008 (UTC)
 * High risk from NHC now. Most models seem to send this over Hispaniola, Early cycle intensity guidence suggests a Cat 1, poss a Cat 2 after 120 hours, and still intensifying. - Salak 00:32, 11 August 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got it back at medium risk, but it's showing up on the danger graphic. "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". --Patteroast 19:18, 11 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, this will almost certainly be off, but I predict a TS landfall on Anguilla on the 14th, a cat. 1 landfall on Great Inagua Island on the 16th, a cat. 2 landfall on Andros island on the 17th, a cat. 3 landfall on the 18th near Miami, then a landfall near Spring Hill, Florida as a cat. 3 on the 19th, then a cat. 4 landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 21st, then a cat. 2 landfall in New Jersey on the 22nd. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:10, 11 August 2008 (UTC)
 * "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY." - Salak 03:00, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ohh, this is bad: . And the forecast track points it toward south Florida. -- SkyFury 06:49, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Well the latest strength forecast isn't ideal, but it still only rates it as a strong Tropical Storm. It could be a lot worse. I think I'd be more worried about the potential impact in Haiti and the Carribean than in Florida. - Salak 10:35, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * High-risk now, and I think Haiti, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, and the entire US eastern seaboard up to Connecticut need to watch this closely as well. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:44, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Recon aircraft is being sent out today, so we may have something later on. - Enzo Aquarius 16:02, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * TCFA, but the recon flight showed no tropical depression yet. Watching very closely... --Patteroast 20:59, 12 August 2008 (UTC)

STDS Issued. You know, if this storm is as bad as my previous prediction then this might be the worst since Andrew in some places. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:08, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Didn't find a TD, but they intned to send a Hurricane Hunter again tomorrow if necessary. Dropped to medium risk - Salak 00:27, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. - Salak 11:48, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Models giving it a slightly better chance now (did you hear about the possible bigfoot body found in Georgia (US state)?). 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:11, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Nope, not seen it at all in the British news sites. NHC have bumped this back up to High Risk; THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. - Salak 09:30, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Hmm, the latest model run looks a lot like the 1933 Long Island express. GFDL and HWRF predict a cat. 2, but CMC espoecially seems to head it far south and into the Gulf but keeps it a TS, and HWRF gives it cat. 4 pressure but cat. 2 winds. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:44, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Woah, OMG!! What the heck has just happened?! It looks like it's just strengthened to a full-blown hurricane within the past few hours, complete with an eye! Recon investigating this system, I think we will possibly have a TS by 11, and I wouldn't be surprised if we did. It's in 29C (84F) water right now, and the water ahead of it is even warmer, up to 31C (88F). Shear is expected to be fairly low as well. GFDL turns it to a cat. 3, HWRF to a cat. 4, racing along the Florida coastline. I hope Florida is prepared for this system. Here comes Fay, and if it forms, then let's pray (rhymes with Fay) that it won't be too bad. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:08, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Could somebody please explain to me how this is not a tropical cyclone? It looks like Tropical Storm Fay. I've seen many named storms significantly less impressive than this. I'd be stunned if this fizzles. I'm already stunned that there are no advisories yet. SHIPS, GFDL and HWFI all make it a Category 2 in 96 hrs. HWFI makes it a major hurricane in 108 hrs. (By the way, Astro, the Long Island Express was in 1938, not 1933). -- SkyFury 22:33, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * 92L really seems pretty remarkable for having stayed this seemingly organized for this long, and yet still not managing to have a fully closed circulation. When it finally closes it up, this thing's gonna go nuts. --Patteroast 02:58, 15 August 2008 (UTC)

Must be by now, surely? NHC update: "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO." - Salak 04:02, 15 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I've just stopped expecting anything from this system. That's because, it's unpredictable! Models think it's east of Puerto Rico, but on satellite I defenitely see the centre just southwest of Puerto Rico's SW tip, and it's moving southwestward, not westard! We better hope that one of the two invests develops very quickly, or we could have trouble. Why? Just look at GFS, if one of the systems doesn't punch a hole through the Bermuda high, then southern Ontario would see sunny weather for a whole day (finally!), but that's not my point. If the high stays strong, then Fay will head into the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall around the Mississippi area. CMC turns 93L into a monster and a re-Juan, which apparently still does not prevent Fay from going into the Gulf. If both systems stay weak, and this one might due to land interaction with Hispanola, then both systems could follow the strong Bermuda high into the Gulf. Most models however predict the system to pass just east of Florida, and GFDL turns it to a cat. 4, I tell you the water there is very warm. Apparently it hasn't been a depression because the circulation didn't reach the surface, but maybe it will have a better chance as recon's being sent again. Hispanola, Cuba, Bahamas, Florida, and the entire US east coast should monitor the progress of the system very closely. Danger, inhibition astraddle transgress! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:04, 15 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Special Tropical Distrurbance statement! "SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON.  NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON." - Salak 16:20, 15 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Guess what, it is now near the southern coast of the Dominican republic and moving WSW, so its track has shifted south and west. Models are calling for a landfall near the Florida Panhandle, so West Florida may be affected more than east florida. Who knows, maybe the weakness of both systems is a good thing, because it will probably weaken before it can affect the east coast. If one of them strengthens rapidly however, the storm can drift northeastwards and affect the east coast. If the high stays strong, there is a good chance it can make landfall near Mississippi/Alabama and hit S. Ontario. This is a large system, so it is gaining strength from both the Caribbean and the Atlantic. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:33, 15 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fay
5:00 PM advisory brings it straight past depression status and now we have Fay. NHC seems to like the HWRF model and drags it as a tropical storm over the Greater Antilles and the Florida Peninsula, although a bit more of a westward movement and it might become more interesting. Albireo 21:10, 15 August 2008 (UTC)
 * "Gentlemen, there is good news, and there is bad news. The good news is, Fay will mostly spend time near land so won't be able to strengthen. The bad news is, first said piece of land is Hispaniola."


 * ...dammit.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:43, 15 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Now expected to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Florida, although the track could farther shift west, because I think it's south of Haiti, not over Hispanola. CMC and GFDL now bring it east of Florida. If you live in Georgia you should also prepare for a TS, and we might get the remnants in Southern Ontario. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:50, 16 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Uh-oh, it's expected to make landfall near Punta Gorda with 140 kph (85 mph) winds and 175 kph (110 mph) gusts, which would make it the worst storm to hit the area since Charley of 2004. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:35, 16 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Aye carumba, talk about a very weird track. This is definitely not going to be good for Cuba and the west-coast of Florida, especially if Fay is upgraded to hurricane status as is predicted. :S - Enzo Aquarius 01:00, 17 August 2008 (UTC)


 * No longer expected to gain hurricane status, but it has already killed four people in Hispanola. All models and the NHC forecast predict a possible direct hit on Southern Ontario, possibly on the night of Saturday/Sunday, yay! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:11, 17 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Not in Cuba, but I'm more concerned about Florida. Tampa is the only major port city on the American Gulf Coast that has yet to suffer incredible destruction via hurricane (Galveston, Corpus Christi, New Orleans, Biloxi and to a lesser extent Mobile and Pensacola have all been visited by epic hurricanes). And this storm is reminding me way too much of Charley (granted, Charley was a Category 2 by this point in its track but even so). It's not forecast to be that bad right now, but that's what worries me. -- SkyFury 04:31, 18 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Uh oh, it has already killed 77 people, including 50 in Haiti from a flooded bus and 24 in the Dominican Republic in a bus crash. I see a due north movement, more NNE than NNW, and 5/6 models predict it to emerge east of Florida, so we still don't have a good idea where it will go. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:09, 18 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately the use of the words "Haiti" and "tropical cyclone" in the same context never has a good outcome :/ As for Fay's future, the NHC keeps stressing that their forecast is low confidence, and I can totally understand why - the models don't agree very much.  We can keep our fingers crossed and hope it fails to reach hurricane status, but we'll see. Albireo 17:58, 18 August 2008 (UTC)


 * That enlarged high pressure system, combined with the high that will give us beautiful weather tomorrow in Southern Ontario, are beginning to complicate things quite a bit. GFS and UKMET suggest impact near New Orleans, and it could easily enter the Atlantic. Although it's expected to make landfall soon, the high might even stall the system somewhere, and there's plenty of time left for strengthening. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:15, 18 August 2008 (UTC)

Down here in Mobile, it's rained for the past three days. Fay looks like it's getting better organized. It could be a hurricane when you wake up tomorrow morning. On Key West radar, it looks like the inner band is trying wrap around the center and form an eye. Dry air is currently preventing that from happening, but Fay's trying. Good news is that it will likely landfall sooner than originally thought, so it won't have as much time to intensify. Also, if it reemerges in the Atlantic ocean, it could restrengthen some. -- SkyFury 23:48, 18 August 2008 (UTC)


 * IMO this should be a hurricane at 5am. Clear eyewall more than halfway complete and it should still be over water at 5. It appears to be nearly stalled and it's just sitting here strengthening. But personally i think it is drifting NE. I think it will move near Everglades city and south of Lake okachobee. Then I'm worried it may get caught by the high, strengthen, and move back west into florida and the gulf! But maybe I'm overdramatizing this. it's just what i think and i reallllly need to sleep soon. 0_o -Winter123 07:18, 19 August 2008 (UTC)


 * 5am Advisory: Landfall at Cape Romano; Tropical storm, all Hurricane warnings dicontinued. Track's haywire... not sure it could cover more of Florida if it tried. - Salak 09:15, 19 August 2008 (UTC)


 * OMG, the high is making its prediction unpredictable, expected to emerge in the Atlantic. GFDL actually predicts a cat. 3 and landfall on the Florida/Georgia border, but maybe the remnant low could give us rain in a few days, this high pressure system is giving us crystal-clear skies but it's COLD! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:18, 19 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Is it just me, or does the satellite presentation get better as the storm moves over Florida? Albireo 20:32, 19 August 2008 (UTC)


 * It now has a well-developed eye, and is expected to strengthen to a hurricane and make landfall near Jacksonville, with hurricane watches up to St. Simmons island. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:29, 19 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Oh yeah, and instead of weakening, the advisories have strengthened it by 5mph since landfall. HOW!? - Salak 21:59, 19 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Scary, isn't it? --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:11, 19 August 2008 (UTC)


 * AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER...Shit, that's me! I'm away at school right now, but my family has a condo down on St. Simons Island just south of Altamaha Sound. Why? Aren't storms supposed to weaken over land? -- SkyFury 23:14, 19 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Fay didn't get that memo.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:41, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

I think I might know why it's restrengthening, and I propose several reasons: Most of the convection is located in the super-warm Atlantic and has been for the past few hours, and its centre is only 15 km (10 mi) from shore, plus the extra rainfall over low-lying warm marshy lake-filled land may be giving it extra water, and some of the convection is over the Gulf as well, so it's been able to gain strength from its outer bands. As for fure movement, GFDL is still predicting a high-end cat. 3, with HWRF a low-end cat. 2. Saint Simmons Island could still get hurricane-force winds, and for some reason I thought you lived in Atlanta, and the storm is supposed to be a whole 100 km (60 mi) from Mobile as a TD. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:51, 20 August 2008 (UTC)


 * My family still lives in Atlanta, but we have a condo down on St. Simons. I'm in Mobile for school. Looks like it's going to be all Florida now. I could see some pretty heavy this weekend from Fay's remnants though. -- SkyFury 04:30, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

Now that Fay stalled over Cape Canaveral I wonder if the track back westwards will get her back into the Gulf maybe in the Appalachee Bay just off Tallahassee. --213.155.231.26 19:24, 20 August 2008 (UTC)


 * It's nearly stationary, circling around itself and its eye is getting bigger. It's on top of New Smyrna Beach, and some places have gotten a whole year's worth of rain! It's gaining strength, but should slowly move westward over the next few days, and its remnants might affect southern Ontario by maybe August 31st. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Third US landfall: ...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY BEGINNING TO CROSS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR FLAGLER BEACH... 60mph sustained winds, moving at 2mph WNW. - Salak 18:24, 21 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Track now wandering south and re-entering the Gulf! Expected to keep as a TS and then a third landlall on Florida, then a forth landfall near Mobile, before wandering up the Mississippi as a TD. This storm won't die! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:15, 22 August 2008 (UTC)


 * What's the record for most landfalls by one system? Fay has made landfall is the Dominican Republic, Cuba, Key West, twice on the Florida peninsula... forecasts say it'll make another in the Florida Panhandle before a SEVENTH landfall in Alabama!? - Salak 15:06, 22 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I don't know that anyone keeps track of it, partially because "landfall" itself is subjective, and partly because of storms that cross archipelagos - would you count a seperate "landfall" for each island the eye crosses? I know that '98 Georges had at least seven (Antigua, St. Kitts [eight if you include landfall on Nevis], Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Key West, Biloxi), '94 Gordon had six (Nicaragua, Jamaica, Cuba, Florida Keys, West Florida, East Florida), 04' Jeanne had at least 5 (Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Abaco Island, Florida) and possibly more when it went over the Bahamas, 07' Noel had at least 5 (Haiti, Haiti, Cuba, Andros Island, Nassau) and possibly more over the Bahamas ... probably a lot more.  I'm thinking it's a bit more common than you think.  Consider the numerous typhoons that cross the Philippines and probably rack up dozens of technical landfalls along the way as it crosses the numerous islands there. Albireo 18:04, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Models are dissagreeing again, and the storm is expected to spend about four days over the Mississippi River. I have the feeling that multiple storms will hit southern Ontario right before school starts to conspire into a massive flood. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:01, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Salek, the record for most landfalls by a single tropical cyclone (in the Atlantic at least), according to one of my fellow MET majors at USA in Mobile, used to be five (Florence in 1960). That record may have but hours to live. The Florida Keys storm in 1906 had six landfalls (Nicaragua, Belize, Cuba, Keys, S FL, NE FL) Fay is forecast to park right over us essentially and dump a sh!tload of rain. Sounds like a fun weekend. -- SkyFury 22:32, 22 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fay back in the Gulf
Hope no one mind me getting tired of scrolling all the way back up whenever I wanted to comment. Fay is now back having un in the gulf; anyway, new watches are up with the 11PM update, from the Alabama/Miss border all the way to the mouth of the Mississipi (not including, sayeth NHC, Lake Pontchartrain and NOLA).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 03:13, 23 August 2008 (UTC)

Seeing as I live on the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain, I think I'll ignore that part of the NHC statement and watch this storm VERY closely...last thing I want is to be out and about with all the street flooding on BOTH sides of the lake. Why on earth would they NOT include NOLA and the lake, given how easy everything here floods? 71.81.51.203 03:23, 23 August 2008 (UTC)


 * They're included now; AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. - Salak 11:41, 23 August 2008 (UTC)


 * A tropical storm warning now includes both the New Orleans area and Mobile. A TS should be no problem for New Orleans but I don't think they've seen one since 2005. Fay is the first ever storm to make four landfalls in Florida, and now it looks like it could make a fifth or sixth landfall in the US, which would set yet another record, and models are continuing the nonstop flirting Fay has had with the high. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:18, 23 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Looks like that's it actually. Warnings discontinued West of Alabama/Mississippi border, it's stayed on land in the Florida Panhandle; hasn't gone back into the gulf. It's looking like it'll only be a Depression when it makes closest approach to NOLA, and even then it may be some way to the North. Time's up for Fay it seems. - Salak 02:00, 24 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fay
Well, that's like Fay, isn't it? Now that everyone expected it to go do a rampage in NOLA...it ups and vanishes instead. Joker, indeed. We should retire the name on virtue of how annoying this one was --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 05:09, 24 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Although it is a depression, it is still causing trouble as NOLA residents face the risk of flash floods and are preparing sandbagging. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:05, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * We've gotten maybe an inch down here in Mobile; just random spurts of pissy, Seattle-esque rain. In between rain showers, it's actually been quite comfortable. St. Simons Island on the GA coast where my condo is got pretty hammered with about three inches, gusty winds and beach erosion. Ground zero was Waycross, GA to Ocala, FL (for the second landfall anyway) the worst effects were there. The storm kinda just skipped over us, hopping north and then back south again toward Biloxi. -- SkyFury 04:10, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Remnants are expected to hit southern Ontario by Friday. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:33, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * We're already seeing the outer clouds and occasional 20mph gusts. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:47, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off Georgia (US state)
CMC, GFS, and mm5fsu33a all predict something significant out of this, entering the Gulf Stream and strengthening. You can't say for sure that the other models don't develop something out of this, either. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:53, 6 August 2008 (UTC)
 * What????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? West Virginia is 100% sunny, and about 6 hours ago when you posted that, it had some high clouds that blew away. You're posting 100 aois every day with the hope of one being right. stop it. But if you're referring to the trough moving towards bermuda, i'd say 2% chance. Still not AoI worthy. -Winter123 18:42, 6 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Winter, he's doin' it for attention, just ignore him. If we ignore the silly stuff, hopefully he'll get sick of it and quit. -- SkyFury 05:11, 7 August 2008 (UTC)
 * What I meant was this (the system coming off of South Carolina/Florida at 60h), and also note the thing coming off of Africa at 90h, although since nobody likes those, I'll just stop posting them until they hit a coastline, okay? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:11, 7 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah i see that, but how is that west virginia? If you said something like Potential AoI: Florida 60 hours" it would make more sense. What is forecasted on that model doesn't even exist yet. It's the tail end of a front that will spin up when it sits over the gulf stream. And about african waves. Their presentation over land has NO impact on how they will do in the water. I even believed a few of your posts but then they died the next day. So just wait and see. It's not like theres land out there anyway -Winter123 02:10, 8 August 2008 (UTC)
 * That model appears to be forecasting future overall weather patterns and in analyzing those weather patterns foresaw the formation of areas of low pressure or disturbed weather. These systems don't exist yet, but this particular model thinks they will. I prefer waiting until a disturbance actually exists before I start postulating on what it might or might not do. -- SkyFury 04:54, 8 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I like to call it backtracking, in which I play the forward animation, and when the system appears, I slowly rewind it and follow the pre-system until it comes to its initial position at 0h. I do this becasue I often also track thunderstorms on radar to see where they originated and tropical cyclones' remnants after they dissapate. Now, let's shift your attention to the East Pacific, where I recently succesfully predicted using AoIs: Kika, Hernan, 95E, and 96E; not to be outdone, Eric (sky) also predicted 93C and 94E. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:12, 8 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Get over yourself! EP storms are very easy to predict. They spin off the itcz in a very easily distinguishable cluster, become an invest, then move WNW and die in cold water. -Winter123 16:23, 10 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looking at the latest CMC run, it merges what's left of 99L with this system (over North Carolina), and also turns what looks like the remnants of Edouard into a hurricane off the US east coast, and also turns what's left of the AoI near Cape Verde and that system over Africa into two new systems. The tropics have exploded! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:31, 8 August 2008 (UTC)
 * There are NO remnants of edouard! It died over the NM/TX border, if you check satellite archives you will see this -Winter123 16:23, 10 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Now that it finally exists, I've re-named it. Only CMC gives it a good forecast, but there are more expected to follow, and even the remnants of Edouard might develop. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:10, 9 August 2008 (UTC)

Well, you're right, an area of low pressure now exists in the western Atlantic but it's forecast to head northeast and the wind shear is abyssimal up that way, blowing in excess of 50 knots. -- SkyFury 19:28, 9 August 2008 (UTC)

What storm off Georgia? There's clear skies. Use your eyes man! The ULL over Toronto has a better chance than "off georgia". -Winter123 16:24, 10 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Told ya the wind shear was a bitch. -- SkyFury 06:50, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * It's headed up into cold water without strengthening, but now many models predict development out of the low near Texas/Oklahoma. I'm not ready to post an AoI though because as per request so I'll wait until it hits a coastline. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:48, 12 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Cape Verde
This finally exists as well, with GFS giving it the best forecast and developing several systems. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:10, 9 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: W of Cape Verde
NHC has this at medium-risk, models give it the best chance out of the three systems. GFS even turns it into what looks like a cat. 3!! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:35, 10 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Dropped to low risk, the AoI chasing it (see immediately above?) has been made medium risk now though. - Salak 00:34, 11 August 2008 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Looks like two of the AoIs (Cape Verde and W of Cape Verde) have sort of merged... NHC puts the whole thing at medium risk of development and that "SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS". --Patteroast 13:14, 11 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Showing up on NHC's danger graphic, now. "THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO". --Patteroast 19:19, 11 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks like a TD now! I'd be surprised if this isnt a TD at 5 and TS at 11, and Hurricane within 2 days of that. -Winter123 19:40, 11 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Huh? It doesn't look that developed. Well, anyway, this will almost certainly be off, but I predict a pass near Bermuda as a cat. 3 on the 18th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Newark on the 20th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:19, 11 August 2008 (UTC)
 * It's got a nice rotation to it and conditions seem to be ripening up. We've got ourselves a couple of troublemakers out there and the models point them both at Florida, and being located where they are, I don't like it when the models start saying that. -- SkyFury 06:54, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Which models are you looking at? Just been looking at these and they seem to have "fishspinner" written all over this system. Of course, it's still early days. - Salak 10:32, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * CMC and GFDL come close to putting it at a bullseye for Bermuda (the astronomical name for bull's eye, by the way, is Aldebaran, the brightest star in Taurus). GFS keeps it weak but heads it for south Florida. I personally think that Bermuda, and the north American east coast from North Carolina to Newfoundland need to watch this closely. Why the east coast? Should I even say it? High pressure variations, conflicting steering currents, and Fu******. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:56, 12 August 2008 (UTC)
 * It's been pretty much dropped now, and looks disorganised, but it still has a chance. Most models predict a TD, but CMC, the outlier, makes what looks like a cat. 2 or 3 landfall on Newfoundland, yikes! CMC and GFS especially seem to develop a second system that travells south of the main invest and follows 92L. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:48, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Enh, this one's just piddling around right now. It'll be a while before this becomes anything, if at all. Salek, I was looking at the Colorado State models, which had it where 92L is in 120 hrs. They don't have 93L up anymore (tell you something?) and now recurve 92 over the Bahamas. -- SkyFury 22:41, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ah, okay :) - Salak 04:03, 15 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks better developed now, un-poofed. It could still hit Atlantic Canada, and if it follows 92L, there could be trouble. See above, 92L and 93L are holding each other's fate in their hands (and the fate of any land they might impact). 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:07, 15 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Re-poof? No longer on the NHC map. - Salak 17:06, 16 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Do you see the remnants of 93L? Part of it has joined the trogh extending from Fay to Newfoundland, but the southern half has re-organised and is NE of the Virgin Islands, and some models actually develop that particular system ahead of 94L. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:46, 19 August 2008 (UTC)

Potential AoI: Southwest Caribbean
NHC has it at low-risk, shower activity has diminished, might head into EPac, might contain remnants of 90L, likely to follow that Costa Rica ITCZ system. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:05, 12 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: South of Newfoundland
It just looks like a low pressure swirl, but models develop something out of this, some into what looks like a large TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:08, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * CMC predicts the low behind it to explode, but most expect it to be weaker than this one. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:16, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Do you see that swirl of low pressure off the East coast? That's what I'm talking about. It's about to enter cold water, but we may have subtropical development here. It's already a strong extratropical system, forecast to bring heavy rain to Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Most models bring it up to TS strength, but half of the models want to bring it up to hurricane strength as well, but it will probably be subtropical if anything. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:53, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Although it has TS strength, it's headed up into cold water and heavy shear. Still, heavy rain is dousing Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, several inches in fact, but don't expect anything tropical. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:11, 14 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Southwest of Cape Verde
Another ITCZ system, only GFS and UKMET actually develop something significant within 5 days. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:10, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Better add CMC and GFDL to that list! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:17, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Half the modls develop what looks like a TD, with the other half a TS or stronger, with GFS the strongest. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:55, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * It's drifted south now, could follow and affect the other invests. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:09, 15 August 2008 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Hmm, it would seem to me that 92 and 94 are lucky numbers for hurricane invests, but 93 not so much. Expected to head north of the Bahamas, could affect the US east coast, could become a hurricane within 5 days. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:13, 18 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Might become a hurricane in about a week, but CMC predicts what looks like a cat. 3 in about 5 days, in a track that resembles the 1938 Long Island Express. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:21, 19 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Medium risk and on the danger graphic for NHC. --Patteroast 09:24, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Back down to low-risk, but now it has a better chance of entering the Caribbean. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:45, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * A couple model runs showing something interesting happening after it gets to the Caribbean... if this thing's going to do anything, it'll be then. --Patteroast 20:14, 21 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Most models don't predict much more than maybe a TD, but CMC is the outlier, predicting a cat. 3 before it even gets to the warmest water, SHIPS predicts a cat. 1, and HWRF a TS. Models in fair agreement, expected to head into the Caribbean then into the even warmer Atlantic. It might be headed for New York, but it's way too early to tell, but if this does form, then Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, and the North American east coast from Florida to Newfoundland may need to watch this one closely. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:53, 21 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Centre re-developed to the south, so it could re-enter the Caribbean near St. Lucia. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:17, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * OMG, models in agreement on its track, expected to enter the Caribbean, possibly hit Haiti as a cat. 2 (uh-oh), and maybe enter the Gulf. GFDL predicts a cat. 3 in only 3 days in the Caribbean! Its immediate cone may be small but it will enlargen and nobody is safe. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:07, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Where on Earth are you coming up with model agreement on this? GFDL is the only model that does much with this, CMC makes something out of it in the short term but has it weakening toward Cuba, the rest of the models don't seem to be doing much of anything with this at all ... Albireo 21:20, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I got the model forecasts from here. There's more agreement on the track than the intensity, however. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:42, 23 August 2008 (UTC)

Back to medium risk and on the danger graphic from NHC. --Patteroast 09:51, 24 August 2008 (UTC) Although most models don't predict too much, GFDL develops a cat. 5 as soon as it enters the gulf and heads it straight for NOLA! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:08, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Where are you seeing Category 5 anywhere? I go to that site that you link and all I can tell is that it moves north, deepens, and steers toward Florida. Besides, anything more than three days out isn't exactly reliable. Recent satellite is showing some healthy convection by the way. Harocat 00:40, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I think I found what you're talking about, is this where you're getting the models? Harocat 00:46, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Jamaica better be paying attention, because most of the guidance takes it their way and only HWFI doesn't give it a name. Of those, only NOGAPS does't make it a hurricane. GFDI makes it a Category 4 in 108 hrs and LGEM makes it a Cat 2 in the same amount of time. Caribbean storms traditionally make me very nervous as there are quite a few of them on the retired names list. -- SkyFury 04:22, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Doesn't help that the GDFL shows it going right between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, giving it an unobstructed shot at the Gulf. It will get plenty of warm water along the way as well. We could be seeing a tropical depression by morning.Harocat 05:24, 25 August 2008 (UTC)

Assigned high risk by NHC. They say that it could form into a depression at any time and the hurricane hunters will be sent this afternoon.Harocat 11:38, 25 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven
It's official. NHC predicts it becoming a tropical storm by tomorrow morning and moving between Cuba and Haiti. It doesn't appear that they're expecting it to develop more anytime soon, but there's a Tropical Storm Warning out for the southern coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Harocat 15:44, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, it has a well-defined eye, and I expect a TS by 2pm. The error cone, unfortunately, puts all three American cities most vulnerable to hurricanes: New Orleans, Miami, and New York in its possible path. If it's making you very nervous, it should, because much of the US coast is in its possible striking zone. Also, we here in S. Ontario could get the remnants of this storm. Someone on WeatherUnderground noticed that this storm's path is similar to that of Dennis of 2005. Following the low-confidence NHC forecast and model guidance, I predict a cat. 1 landfall near Key West on September 1, then a cat. 3 landfall on Pascagoula, Mississippi as a cat. 3 on the 4th, then a TS landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 8th, then a cat. 2 landfall near New York City on the 10th, then a TD landfall near Kingston, Ontario on the 12th. However, this will probably be off especially towards the end. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:10, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * You're predicting a lot of landfalls there... just cos Fay made a lot, doesn't mean those following it will. Also, I'd've thought Houston's more likely to get hit by a hurricane than New York. - Salak 17:21, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Is there any rhyme or reason to your "predictions", or are you just tossing colored darts at a map? Also - "landfall near Kingston, ON"?  I assume you mean "remnants pass near Kingston, ON". Albireo 17:29, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I have to admit, I got a chuckle out of that. But yeah, he's sounding a bit too excited about his predictions. Harocat 18:46, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Just had a look at the aerial photo; that does look like an eye. I'll be very surprised if this isn't Gustav at the next advisory. - Salak 17:41, 25 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gustav
It's official! Unfortunately the official update will be delayed 30 minutes and yes there is reason to my forecast. 95 kmph winds!! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:14, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, yeah, even the NHC said it was going to turn into a tropical storm within the day. This isn't a forecasting contest. Anyway...hopefully it gets torn up over Cuba before Florida gets any more dumped on. Harocat 18:50, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Hurricane warning for southern Haiti and SW Dominican Republic. The current forecast has it only skimming the coast of Cuba... --Patteroast 19:02, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not liking this forecast track one bit. It would be too easy to get that thing into the Gulf. (EDIT TO ADD: And of course it's going to hit Haiti, which is never good news)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 19:13, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh oh. This could be REALLY bad. Believe it or not, Haiti hasn't had a direct hurricane strike since Georges of 1998, and even that was a cat. 1. Most models' tracks are way south of NHC's track, which means that NOLA could be in trouble. Both GFDL and HWRF predict landfall on South Cuba as a cat. 2. Either way, this will not be pretty. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:37, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not liking the look of this either... Haiti and Cuba only had Fay about 10 days ago, that may only increase the flooding caused by this... not looking good at the moment. - Salak 20:17, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Updated forecast shows it reaching Cat. 1 by tomorrow and the extended forecast calls for it to go directly over Cuba. However, even the forecasters are saying the day 4 and 5 outlooks are a bit unclear, though from what the models are showing it could turn left quickly and smack Jamaica. Right now the track seems to depend on the development of a ridge in the southeast US. Harocat 21:10, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Sustained winds of 70mph; nearly a hurricane now. - Salak 03:27, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Gustav
According to NHC, hurricane hunters found 80 mph winds... and the last forecast track had it edging south of Cuba, taking a path with minimal time over land... this doesn't look good. --Patteroast 07:36, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * That didn't take long at all. Bad news for Haiti. Jake52 :07:36, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow... not liking model runs, either. Latest GFDL had a category 5 landfall on the W tip of Cuba before heading into the Gulf with 158 knot winds, and the latest HWRF has a strong cat 4 heading into the Gulf after skimming past Cuba. --Patteroast 07:42, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

From discussion: "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE.  MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS." - not good. Isfisk 09:05, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * If Gustav enters the Gulf it could steel the thunder next week from McCain. Isfisk 11:42, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Or it might actually give the candidates something to do besides bash each other. The aftermath of Gustav has the potential to be a PR goldmine. Hopefully they focus on helping with cleanup rather than making themselves look good, but who am I kidding. Harocat 13:30, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Anyone see the latest GFDL run? It's downright chilling. Albireo 13:52, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * The one that has this touching Category 5 in the gulf before a direct hit as a Category 4 on New Orleans? Eek... - Salak 16:13, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Yup, looks like it's going to explode fairly soon, and a major hurricane by Friday. Harocat 15:13, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * There's still uncertainty, but either way this will not be good for oil prices. I predict a cat. 4 landfall in central Louisiana. This might be innacurate but it might also might be an underestimte, but look at this map of an approximation of the storm surge associated with such a storm O_O. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:43, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * The latest GFDL run is just creepy: 170 mph+ winds, direct cat. 4 landfall on Houston with TS winds on NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:46, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Either way, this thing may well be pretty bad. We're looking almost a week ahead here, I think it's safe to say the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on this, and then a case of wait and see, at least until it gets half way along Cuba so we have a slightly better picture? - Salak 01:31, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't like this at all. I'm not easily intimidated by young storms but if this storm doesn't establish a long standing relationship with Cuba, things could get very ugly by Labor Day weekend. I've analyzed every season back to 1871 at some point in the last four years and I'll tell you a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico almost never has a happy ending. The upper level environment is not exactly providing me much comfort either. Six of the 11 models on Colorado State's map make it a major hurricane. GFDI and GFNI make it 150 mph Category 4 by 84 hrs (bad) and 108 hrs (worse), respectively. Bottom line: there's a relatively strong possibility that this could suck. -- SkyFury 06:17, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * GFDL now hints on a direct hit for the Mississippi delta. --213.155.231.26 09:56, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gustav (Second time)
Haiti cut Gustav up a bit it seems. Forecast to restrengthen in 24 hours though. - Salak 13:53, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I'll take any good news at this point. Anyone notice the track keeps shifting east, more toward...(*gulp*) me? Chance for shear late in the forecast period but there's no way to know how the storm will be affected by it. The lack of knowledge is just killing me right now. -- SkyFury 16:29, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * This storm could indeed make history (or erase it). NHC predicts a direct cat. 3 landfall near New Orleans, which could be a re-Katrina. I'd think about packing up and leaving if I lived around the area. Land interaction with Havanna could weaken it a bit, and it's not expected to flood MR-GO as much. GFDL and HWRF both predict a cat. 5, CMC still insisting on the south Texas track. GFDL predicts a cat. 4 landfall on central Louisiana (bad), and HWRF predicts a cat. 3 landfall on central Mississippi (just as bad). Only three people have been reported dead in Haiti, which could be good news because it could have been worse. I'd predicted retirement for Gustav back in July, but not in the exact way I'd expected. If you live anywhere near the Lake Pontchartrain area, you should: stock up on emergency supplies. Pray. Get ready-to-eat food (not Maple Leaf meat) and bottled water. Pray. Fill up on fuel ASAP. Pray. Be ready to evacuate if nessecary. Pray. Monitor the NHC forecasts. Pray. Leave early before a mandatory evacuation is declared if the storm stays on its predicted track. Pray. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:59, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Normally I might dismiss the above as being melodramatic hand-wringing, but the models simply do not look good. With two of them - and the NHC forecast - pointing at a major hurricane landfall on the gulf coast, I'd say it is not unwarranted for everyone from Houston to Pensacola to be keeping a very close watch on Gustav and be prepared to get outta Dodge. Albireo 17:18, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * There's no reason to panic. Yet. If the track still looks the same on Friday morning, *then* you can panic (and if at all possible, find some place to evacuate to). But that's friday morning.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:05, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Oh, no, no reason to panic - but every reason for residents on the Gulf Coast to pay attention and not wait till the last moment, in case this does get ugly. Albireo 18:49, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * GFDL still predicting cat. 5, but it's the only one now. The best-case senario I think is if it heads over Cuba and Florida and never strengthens to a hurricane but then it would still dump a lot of flood. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:16, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Coincidentally, Friday is the 3rd anniversary of Katrina and by then it'll be apparent what this storm will do. Half of all models predict major hurricane near NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:21, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * It's not gonna be a Cat. 5 but the way this is going, it could be a longer weekend than I thought. I have to go home tomorrow anyway for a doctor's appointment and as Gus is likely to make landfall on the Gulf Coast sometime Tuesday (at whatever Category it ends up being), I may be staying longer. This is the worst part of an impending storm for a hurricane forecaster because at this point, there's no tellin' what it'll do. But it's comin' and is certainly gonna run into something. Where and as what we don't know. -- SkyFury 23:30, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

About to pass Jamaica to the SOUTH, intensity forecasts have just been raised back to 115mph in the Gulf, currently 70mph sustained winds. Back to a Hurricane today. - Salak 13:10, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Potential AoI: NE of French Guiana
It looks rather well-developed on satellite, but most models don't support this and it's probably too far south. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:08, 13 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Southeast of Cape Hatteras
Expected to follow that other AoI up the gulf stream, half the models develop a TD, but CMC especially puts it at a cat. 2 landfall on Newfoundland. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:00, 14 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Gulf of Texas
This could perhaps follow the gulf stream and affect Fay. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:14, 17 August 2008 (UTC)


 * There is no geographical feature called "the Gulf of Texas." And this disturbance seems to ride in that same mysterious dimension. -- SkyFury 23:20, 19 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Central Atlantic
Hello? This may look like 94L but most models develop it as a separate system. Is everyone at school or something but unless you're American then it usually wouldn't start until Spetember anyway. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:20, 18 August 2008 (UTC)
 * For once i agree. the low ESE of 94L is forming convection and has a chance, unless it is squashed by that massive wave about to move off behind it. -Winter123 07:24, 19 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised this isn't an invest yet, it has wrap-around cyclonic-like bands, could interact with 94L and push it southwards. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:01, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SW of Cape Verde
This one's near the caost, expected to follow the other two systems. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:01, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

95L. INVEST
Part of this developed from the northwestern flank of the Cape Verde system. SHIPS predicts a hurricane but there's some model dissagreement. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:26, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * HWRF is actually predicting a cat. 2! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:49, 23 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Dropped to low-risk, but HWRF persists on bringing it to a hurricane and hitting Nova Scotia as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:55, 24 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Back up to medium risk... --Patteroast 01:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh-oh. CMC predicts a cat. 3, GFDL a cat. 4, and HWRF a cat. 3 within 5 days! GFS is also scary, not intensity-wise but track-wise: stalling around the high coming off the coast and maybe hitting New York. If we have a cat. 2 or 3 hurricane AND a landfall near New York then there could be trouble. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:48, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * And most of the models predict it to recurve through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The only models that take it west are the ones that keep it weak. It might be a good idea for Bermuda to pay attention to it, but we shouldn't have to worry about it here in the states. -- SkyFury 16:34, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got it up to high risk, it's on the danger graphic, AND there's a TCFA. Could be a depression before morning. --Patteroast 00:54, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Showing up as 08L on NRL. No word yet from NHC, but judging by what they were saying about it earlier, I'd be very surprised if this is not indeed upgraded. --Patteroast 08:30, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Confirmed by NHC. Forecast to become a hurricane heading towards the east coast... --Patteroast 08:52, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Still way too far to say it won't recurve, though. No?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 12:21, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Perhaps true. Navy/NRL has this labelled as 08L.HANNA, expect an upgrade at the next advisory. - Salak 13:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Potential AoI: South of Bermuda
This is just a trough, but it could punch a hole in the high, or it might even develop a system of its own but that's unlikely. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:26, 22 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SW of Cape Verde
Nearly all models predict something significant out of this. Could head far north, however, due to the decaying high. Anyone have lightning data for West Africa, because most storms that can develop into hurricanes have a good amount of lightning. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:02, 24 August 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got this thing on medium risk now. --Patteroast 12:30, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * The system behind it, which is currently over land, may have a better chance than this one. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:52, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: NE of Puerto Rico
This one's between Gustav and 95L and NHC has it as low-risk, and maybe the three systems will have Fuj***** and an uh-oh will occur. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:51, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Near Guinea
Most models predict something out of this, could become a hurricane. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:02, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

NOAA august forecasts
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080807_hurricaneoutlook.html

In short, 14-18 named (12-16 in May forecast), 7-10 'canes, (6-9 in May), 3-6 majors (2-5 in May). 85% chance of above-average instead of 65% in May. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:06, 8 August 2008 (UTC) RESPONSE TO INVEST 99.L IS OVER FLORIDA-MYSTERIOUS PREDICTIONS AHEAD.


 * Here's my revised prediction for the year, based on what already happened, but will likely be less accurate than the NOAA forecast:

20 tropical storms, of which 1 is subtropical and 1 not discovered until the re-analysis; 2 TDs which never become named; 9 hurricanes, of which 5 are major and 1 cat. 5; 4 landfalling hurricanes, of which 3 make US landfall; 2 retired storms; 7 Cape Verde storms; 4 storms whose remnants hit S. Ontario; and 13 landfalling storms. However, my predictions will probably be massively incorrect. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:18, 8 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Given the current active trend, I see an active year, but not that active. I say 16 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major ones, no subtropical or Cat 5s, 4-5 US landfalls, 2-3 landfalling US hurricanes but more hurricane landfalls elsewhere and 1-2 retired names. I actually think this might be a bit aggressive. The big variable for me is late season activity; will this active trend be able to extend into October. It did in 2005 but did not in 2004 (only three storms forming after September, only Matthew was of tropical origin). -- SkyFury 19:36, 9 August 2008 (UTC)

Are dire predictions the norm here? I'm an on-again off-again lurker but during the active season it seems like there is at least one person here who prognosticates cataclysmic scenarios of Katrina-esque proportions every time a thunderhead rolls off the African coast. Some of the above seems to follow that trend :p Albireo 20:55, 13 August 2008 (UTC)


 * For some people, they seem to be. Not everyone though. - Salak 05:37, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't know what you mean by "the above" - the original set of predictions are those of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The others...Astro's is probably a little high, but mostly close to the predictions of the NOAA (20 storms is a little above the max NOAA prediction, but 9 hurricanes and 5 major is within the limits of NOAA's prediction), and Skyfury is mostly about the middle ground of NOAA's. (16 is in the middle of NOAA's 14-18, 8 is a little below the middle of 7-10, and 4 is a little below the middle of 3-6) --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:12, 15 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Re-revised forecast! The changes made were: 10 hurricanes, 6 landfalling hurricanes, 4 US landfalling hurricanes, 3 retired names, and 10 Cape Verde storms. I would also like to back up my previous predictions: 20 storms is because: 1 in May and June, 3 in July, 5 in August, 7 in September, 3 in October, and 1 in November and December; and 1 cat 5 is because there have been 4 years with cat 5s in the past 6 years, with an average of more than 1 per year, and there is no indication that this year is below average compared to the past 6 years. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:10, 16 August 2008 (UTC)

Program for use in tropical cyclone QPF
..but weather weenies might like it too. heheheh  It's a series of scripts that are run in-house through a GUI named cliqr (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/web/cliqr.html), and it runs for all ATCF-entered invests. It shows the rainfall graphics for the systems that most closely match ongoing invests, with greater weight placed on location, size (ROCI), and forward motion than the other parameters. If nothing else, you can look at the list of matches and see where they went. Thegreatdr 23:41, 6 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ooh, grown-up toys, yay! -- SkyFury 05:13, 7 August 2008 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
So, now with six named storms, it seems linke we can discuss retirements now. Here is my take so far: What are your thoughts? 69.92.37.140 00:57, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur - 10% - damage not severe
 * Bertha - 7% - minimal damage
 * Cristobal - 5% - foregettable, hardly caused any damage
 * Dolly - 60% - caused over $1 billion in damage, and 21 deaths
 * Eduoard - 10% - damage total unknown, but probably not severe
 * Fay - 75% - caused over 100 deaths, severe damage possible. Interestingly, this could be the first time the same letter in the same list is retired twice, as Fay replaced Fran for the 2002 season.
 * I'm having a hard time corroborating the 100+ deaths from Fay. Most of the sources I'm finding are suggesting 14, and that the original count from Haiti was greatly exaggerated.  I'd wait till damage figures are in, but right now I'd put Fay at more like 25% based on what I know right now.  I think I'd also nudge Dolly down to 50%, as the death toll/damage estimates are not exceptionally high and the affected countries (US and Mexico) seem to be somewhat conservative with nominating names for retirement. Albireo 15:59, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * By the way, Fay did not replace Fran in the 2002 season, it replaced it in the 1996 season, so this wouldn't be the first time. Here are my estimates:
 * Arthur: 4% - It wasn't that bad, and storms cause mudslides all the time in Central America.
 * Bertha: 3% - Although it broke a few records, damage in Bermuda wasn't severe.
 * Cristobal: 2% - Damage minimal, although this is the only storm so far to follow the Gulf Stream, and it caused some flooding in Nova Scotia, but not much.
 * Dolly: 49% - I'm not going to place any bets on this storm, as damage wasn't really that bad, and most flooding occured inland while it was a depression. However, it is still a devastating storm, which caused over 1 billion in damage, so it has a good chance nevertheless.
 * Edouard: 6% - Although hurricane watches were originally issued, it never became a hurricane and was really not that bad.
 * Fay: 29% 43% - Damages in the US and Cuba were minimal, storms kill dozens in Haiti all the time and not get retired, the bus crash in the Dominican Republic was indirect, but each country does have some chance of retiring it, and it's not done yet. Update: severe flooding in Florida and other places.
 * Gustav: (tenative) 78% - Based on the current forecast, but still too early to tell. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:53, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * So, there you have it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:12, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

Just a comment on the question of whether a name with the same letter has been retired from the same list more than once... it's happened multiple times already. Allen > Andrew (x2) > Alex. Alicia > Allison (x3) > Andrea. Frederic > Fabian (x4) > Fred (upcoming). And most strikingly the back-to-back Marilyn > Michelle > Melissa. --Patteroast 07:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC)
 * When was the last time a tropical storm was retired? One and only Allison? Seems Fay has way to go to reach that. However, if the track swifts a bit more to the south Big Easy might get in troubles. --213.155.231.26 21:06, 21 August 2008 (UTC)

You took my title. Jake52 01:27, 23 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 5%. 9 deaths total and a fair bit of damage. Neither of these are really substantial criterion for retiring a storm.
 * Bertha: 2%. It was a certainly notable tropical cyclone, but that's all it has to its name is notability. It only caused three deaths, and none of these were in Bermuda.
 * Cristobal: 1%. Honestly. The thing did negligibly little. If Chantal wasn't retired last year (and it wasn't), Cristobal stands no chance at all.
 * Dolly: 45%. This goes off estimated damages being equal to or less than final. If the estimates are greater than actual, it's just a 25%. Fair death toll.
 * Edouard: 1%. Ladies and gentlemen...what on Earth did this thing do?
 * Fay: 10%, possibly higher. Fair death toll. Will wait for damage reports.
 * Arthur: 3%: Nothing out of the ordinary, your bog standard storm hitting a Central America coast.
 * Bertha: 12%: Broke a record or two, scared Bermuda. Not much damage though
 * Cristobal: 2%: What did it do again?
 * Dolly: 34%: Whacked south Texas.
 * Edouard: 10%: Made Houston sit up and take note. Didn't do much in the end though.
 * Fay: 39% 59%: Pounded Florida with severe flooding in places. Damage in Carribean was nothing unusual. New Orleans a little lucky not to get a stronger hit due to it staying over the Florida Panhandle.
 * Gustav: Not made landfall yet; too early to tell. - Salak 04:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Eric's divine and always superior pontification:
 * Arthur: 5% - just for catching NHC with its pants around its ankles...and setting a really cool record too.
 * Bertha: 9% - I've always wanted to visit Bermuda, apparently Bertha felt the same way. She had a jolly old time out there for about a month. What is it about Berthas that make them so hard to kill?
 * Cristobal: 4% - Ooh, a storm brushing by the Outer Banks and doing absolutely nothing! Gold star for originality, Cris.
 * Dolly: 33% - Kicked the shit out of South Padre but they came out of it reasonably well.
 * Ed: 10% - nuisance storm. Pissed on a couple people in North Texas but that's about it.
 * Fay: 27% - I think Fay's raised the sea level of the Gulf of Mexico about 8 feet. Pretty much every county in the state of Florida got at least two inches of rain from this thing.
 * Will revise as the season goes along. -- SkyFury 04:47, 25 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I think that Fay should be retired... if any of you lived in Orlando you'd understand the extent of the flooding that occured. Lakes that were 3 feet low a week ago are about 8 feet too high now and 4 landfalls... I cant' wait till the next one! 65.244.189.218 09:08, 25 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Having just looked at photos of Florida after Fay, I've upped my figure for its retirement. I've heard quite little about the impact of it here (UK) though; think I've seen it mentioned in the news briefly twice. - Salak 03:58, 26 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I disagree. I don't think it should be retired and I definately don't think it will be retired. The flooding wasn't severe enough or widespread enough, nor did it cause enough damage. The fact that it wasn't a hurricane doesn't help. Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 killed 124 people in Venezuela in catastrophic floods (the exact same number as Ivan) and wasn't retired. -- SkyFury 16:38, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

My own totally non-scientific predictions thus far: Really what it all boils down to, for me, are the criteria upon which storms get retired. Sure, they may have broken a record or been a nuisance, but really these are not things that storms get retired for. To date, I'd not be surprised if no storms are retired - but with September looming and Gustav looking dangerous, I'm sure that sentiment will change. Albireo 17:14, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 0%
 * Bertha: 0%
 * Cristobal: 0% - Let's face it, all three had pretty negligible impact in terms of damage/fatalities, and these are what get storms retired. No sense in giving them a piddly 1 or 2% chance when it ain't gonna happen.
 * Dolly: 40% - Relatively high damage but nothing eye popping.
 * Edouard: 0% - As above.
 * Fay: 33% - Helluva wet storm, but I'm not willing to up the odds unless some striking damage figures come out.