Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

90L.INVEST
31.6N 73.9W, off the Carolina coast. This hasn't been designated by NRL, but it appears to be transitioning to warm core according to the cyclone phase diagrams. SAB has issued Herbert-Poteat numbers of ST2.5/2.5 for the system. --Coredesat 18:50, 7 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I've been watching this storm develop for a while. It's a little lacking right now. All it needs in convection. Then, maybe this will be our next Ana. Cyclone1 (20:54 UTC -7/05/2007)
 * FYI, SSD (Satellite Services Division) already has 90L as a subtropical storm, so unless NHC NOAA is going conservative, I'm assuming that this storm is indeed Andrea. -- This unsigned comment was added by 71.7.209.115 22:38, 7 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Interesting. --Ajm81 23:21, 7 May 2007 (UTC)

This post moved from main Wikipedia talk page: – NSLE 23:35, 7 May 2007 (UTC) On Friday, the model guidance was indicating an occluded cyclone would form in the subtropical Atlantic east of the Bahamas a bit too far from the Gulf Stream for subtropical cyclogenesis near the 72nd meridian (500 hPa-surface temp differences of only 34C, which is a neutral moist sounding). However, the models changed their track to one parallel and closer to the Gulf Stream, which significantly increases the chance of ST genesis. Temperature differences between the 500 hPa level (20000 feet) and the sea surface temps in the Gulf Stream exceed 40C (unstable moist), which is enough to induce thunderstorms. Sure enough, look what's happenning this afternoon northeast of Florida, with shallow to moderate convection filling the vicinity of the low. Able of 1951 formed in a similar manner, and it became a category 3 hurricane. The track of this cyclone has a chance to be similar, and if it can become a subtropical/tropical storm, it may not shear as badly as the current guidance is suggesting. One of the satellite centers, as of 18z, is already classifying it as an ST2.5 (subtropical storm), and ship reports indicated 45 knot winds around its circulation today. It's been a while since we had a recognized May subtropical storm...since the mid-1970s if I remember correctly. Thegreatdr 22:12, 7 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Really? I read the tropical discussion and it said the storm was going to start to weaken soon, but the NCEP model tells a different story. I'm not giving up on this storm. Whether it forms or not, it's gonna have the same effect on land. Alpha in 1972 is what you were thinking of. Cyclone1 (01:03 UTC -8/05/2007)

Latest TWD forecasts weakening as it moves toward the Georgia-Florida border. --Coredesat 08:32, 8 May 2007 (UTC)


 * New convection is developing very near its center. looks really impressive now! -- WmE 12:14, 8 May 2007 (UTC)

WONT41 KNHC 081346 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ FORECASTER KNABB 

– NSLE 13:53, 8 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Officially 90L. – NSLE 14:19, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * NRL saying 50kts. Furthermore recon scheduled for tomorrow. -- WmE 14:23, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * The only thing keeping this from being Andrea at this point I think (if it matters) is the lack of solid convective bands. It has definitely taken the shape of a subtropical or tropical storm. However, it seems to be a fair ways away from taking on the bands. I give it a 30% chance of becoming Andrea right now. CrazyC83 15:03, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * All it really needs is a decent blow up of convection (which is likely, considering the fact that its moving slowly over the Gulf stream). If that were to happen, I think we'd have ourselves an Andrea. Cyclone1 (18:55 UTC -8/05/2007)

Starting to look better. Cyclone1 (20:10 UTC -8/05/2007)
 * Still quite exposed in the center of the storm though. CrazyC83 21:06, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * But, it's getting its act together. The Weather Channel insists on calling it a subtropical storm, when it clearly is not official. Maybe one day the NHC will just go ahead and call it Andrea. Or will this be the third year in a row with a post analisys storm? (Analysis? Analaz... I can't spell.) Cyclone1 (22:06 UTC -8/05/2007)


 * I'm actually going to be really disappointed when this thing doesn't develop. We all love rare things. Offseason storms are a good example. 2003's Ana seems like a long time ago and I feel that itching desire for a preseason storm. Deep down, I know it's not going to happen, but to get this close...it's almost painful you know. I'm not counting the storm out yet, but NHC seems pretty convinced of this thing not making much noise and I'm starting to lose conviction. The satellite images aren't very compelling and when the NHC says "significant development not expected" that usually means it's not going to happen. I hate to be the party crasher, but don't get you hopes up. I personally think it's cool that we're even talking about an Invest on May 8! -- SkyFury 23:17, 8 May 2007 (UTC) (People on regular Wikipedia know me better as HurricaneEric)
 * Oh, hey Eric. Like the new name. But anyway, I feel exactly the same way. I was crossing my fingers and hoping and praying that this would form, just for the sake of it being a pre-season storm. But, I've had fun talking about something this early. I missed the S. Atl INVEST last February and I missed the April mini-noreaster/INVEST weirdo storm no-one could really find. So, this is the earliest in a season I've ever talked about an INVEST, so... it was something to do. However, just so I don't become depressed, I'm going to remain in denial. It'll form, guys! It'll become Hurricane Andrea! Yeah! Cyclone1 (00:09 UTC -9/05/2007)
 * But, RECON is still flying out tomorrow, so... not all hope is lost. Cyclone1 (00:10 UTC -9/05/2007)
 * First RECON flight on May 9. Not bad, I'd say. Bob rulz 05:58, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

SAB Hebert-Poteat numbers up to ST3.0. --Coredesat 09:09, 9 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Recon has just taken off. The plane will reach the storm in about 2 hours. The convection got cooler during the last hours and the center has moved under some deeper convection. Maybe it will be enough to warm the center a little bit. -- WmE 09:59, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB -- WmE 13:07, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Welcome to the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, three weeks early! (That assumes they follow through with current trends) I guess Andrea was so anxious she couldn't wait for June 1st! She is in a different spot than her predecessors though... CrazyC83 13:17, 9 May 2007 (UTC)