Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season

August
New month, new storms. Here we go! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:37, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
New invest spotted by JTWC near Nalgae/13W. Low chance of formation as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:12, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
And another invest is spotted by JTWC after a brief period of inactivity in the WPac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:03, August 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at a high chance of formation. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:45, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14W
Just upgraded. JTWC already puts 14W as a tropical storm. This storm already looks like a TS, and could be Banyan very soon. T G  2 0 1 7 10:49, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Banyan
And JMA immediately followed suit. Not expected to become a typhoon. Archetypal fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:11, August 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * The intensity is at 40 mph/1004 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:24, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensified into 50 mph on 10-min and 60 mph on 1-min. Pressure down to 998 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:06, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well this formed quickly. JTWC forecasts a weak typhoon (up to 85 knots) but I think it might have minor potential to become the equivalent of a major hurricane if it defies the forecast. It's currently near Wake Island, but other than that this is just going to spin fish. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:59, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, this suddenly intensified. Would love to see this become a typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:24, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Banyan
Wow, this is really unexpected! Banyan is almost poised to become a typhoon now. Banyan is at 60 mph/992 mbar right now. T G  2 0 1 7 11:29, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 65 mph/990 mbar. Could become a typhoon by the end of the day. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:27, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could become pretty powerful. JTWC takes it up to a "C3 strength" typhoon by the 14th before weakening occurs. I'd even give a chance that this could explosively intensify to become a super typhoon, although that looks somewhat unlikely for now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:15, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Banyan actually looks good on satellite right now; in fact, it somehow reminds me of (the recent hurricane) Franklin at its peak. It seems like it's already a C1 by now, though JTWC currently puts Banyan at 70 mph (1-min) . I'd be delighted if this reaches C3 or even higher. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:22, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Banyan
Just as soon as you said that, Anonymous, Banyan became a typhoon. This has a high chance to go through RI. T G  2 0 1 7 18:57, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel like this could be another super typhoon if RI occurs. If not, a C4-strength typhoon is likely. JTWC takes it up to 110 knots (aka 125 mph). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:58, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * This already looks like a C3 typhoon, IMO. Banyan could double its intensity by tomorrow morning. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:11, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * It has cleared out an eye which is visible from there. Winds are up to 80 mph on 10-min and 90 mph on 1-min. Pressure down to 975 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:27, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dang it's already a C2 typhoon (90 knots/105 mph) according to JTWC. This thing is RIing looks like. A super typhoon is very possible. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:41, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow, that was quick. Now a C4 or a C5 can be possible; this system is moving slowly. Still a C2 however, but this will surely become stronger. I hope it becomes stronger than Noru, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:30, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Banyan has stalled in intensity (still 90 knots according to JTWC). A super typhoon is looking less likely, unfortunately. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:01, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sigh, I think you are right about that. Oh well, the next best thing that Banyan can do is to become a C3 or even a C4 before it dies; it is forecast to weaken by Tuesday or Wednesday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:24, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 75 knots (85 mph) (1-min) and will weaken further until dissipation while quickly approaching Alaska. Be glad that it at least became a modest typhoon out to sea... :) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:46, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensity down to 75 mph/980 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:11, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Banyan (2nd time)
It's dying. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:15, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * At STS strength, and IbAHAn, we go by the JMA grading not the JTWC. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 21:40, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * JTWC has issued their final advisory. Intensity is now 60 knots/985 mbars. At least Banyan gave us something to look at in the WPac. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:13, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Banyan
Gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:56, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
A new invest has formed. It is at a low chance of formation of now. 93W doesn't have that much time to organize and become a strong tropical cyclone. At most, 93W could steal the name Hato. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:08, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Actually, TG, Invest 93W is coming together very rapidly. The JMA has classified the system as a tropical depression with winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa). They expect the system to briefly become a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) and a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa) before nearing Greater China. The JTWC has also issued a TCFA in anticipation for Invest 93W's cyclogenesis. Citing the low shear, SSTs of around 31°C, and excellent outflow, they note that the models are indicating potential formation as well. At most, I foresee Invest 93W becoming a weak typhoon no stronger than Nesat was. Also, the JTWC estimates winds of 18 to 23 knots (16 to 20 mph) (1-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa). Here comes the potential 13th storm of the WPAC! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:13, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15W (Isang)
Now a TD according to JTWC. It is named Isang by PAGASA. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:48, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hato (Isang)
The first usage of the name Hato, which replaced Washi. The JTWC forecast only makes Hato a TS its whole life. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 10:47, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * While Hato/Isang (relatively?) intensified quickly to a TS, it will most likely remain to be a tropical storm due to its rapid movement (and the fact it is kind of near Taiwan, Luzon and their outlying islands). However, a Typhoon Hato or Severe Tropical Storm Hato is not entirely impossible; it's still in the open sea. Its first (and maybe only) landfall will most likely occur on Wednesday or Thursday in southern China, which gives it a small window to gather more strength. It is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon though, and I hope its effects won't be as severe as the ones that occurred in the Philippines in the previous years. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:45, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hato does seem to be moving pretty rapidly. JTWC however forecasts a peak of 60 knots, which is equivalent to 70 mph. A typhoon is entirely possible. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:33, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hato won't have enough time to become a typhoon. Its quick movement towards land will prevent any further strengthening than a strong STS. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 22:14, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sigh, I guess you are right. Forecast peak is still 60 kts. If it didn't go so fast, a typhoon would have likely happened. Well, maybe there is still a small chance because 60 knots is very close to typhoon status anyway. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:32, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * So far, four people were killed by this typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:29, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Hato (Isang)
110 kph. 975 mb. On the verge to become a C1. Forecast to make landfall near Hong Kong tomorrow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:05, August 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now a Category 1 typhoon according to JTWC. 75 mph (1-min). Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, August 22, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Hato (Isang)
And there you go. JMA just made it official. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:57, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Although it has strengthened into a typhoon, it is rocketing very quickly towards China. Hato could strengthen some more before landfall, though. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 21:43, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ha, the storm ate your earlier (from Aug.20) words TG. :P Had a feeling that typhoon status could have occurred with Hato. It won't strengthen much more until landfall near Hong Kong. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:37, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Welp, it's already a C2 typhoon. It's intensity at 85 mph in 10 min, 100 mph in 1 min/965 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:45, August 23, 2017 (UTC) P.S. It should make landfall near Hong Kong any minute now. P.P.S Hurricane Signal No. 10 is issued from Hong Kong making it the first since 2012.
 * Yep, Steve! I think Hato tried to redeem himself because I said that. XD Well, Hato made landfall on Hong Kong not that long ago. Hopefully they will fare well. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 10:16, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * So far, four people were killed because of the storm. Weakened to a C1 typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I cannot confirm if this is true, but the Wikipedia page for Hato says that it briefly reached C3 status before landfall in (or near) Macau. This is not looking good, to be honest. I'm starting to think this may get retired — but that still depends on the death toll and the damage totals. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hato (Isang) (2nd time)
Down to TS strength (JMA) as it moves inland. JTWC has issued their final advisory. A retirement is possible unless it ends up less destructive and the death toll stalls (hopefully). Death toll is up to 6. :( ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:41, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be a retirement candidate, as the six fatalities is only the beginning :(. I doubt the Wikipedia page was correct. None of the best track data showed that Hato became a C3.  T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:20, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hato
Died over southern China. Ryan1000 10:33, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, RIP to 16 people and counting who were killed during and after the storm. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 14:33, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 17 :( :(. Wikipedia page still shows a C3 for an odd reason. I put it in C3 coloring in my retirements section just in case. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * The damages are up to $3 billion. Hato could be retired. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hato is now up to $18.7 billion. Hato is the COSTLIEST TYPHOON ON RECORD!!!! T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:18, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * 17 deaths, $18.7 billion worth of damages (125 billion in Chinese yuan)... Hato will surely go. Fitow in 2013 had a somewhat lower damage cost and death toll and got retired, and I think it will (certainly) happen again with Hato. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:50, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Oh wait, never mind what we have said above. Seems that the damage cost is lower. It's actually currently at 12.4 to 12.5 billion Chinese yuan, equivalent to $1.87 billion. While it is expected to go higher (hopefully not back to the previously reported total of $18.7 billion), southern China has seen worse. However, this is Macau's strongest and worst in half a century, and maybe the effects in Macau alone can warrant the retirement of Hato. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:25, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Steve and Anonymous 2.0, Wikipedia has been correctly indicating Hato as a Category 3 typhoon. In between JTWC advisories, as noted in the provided prognostic reasoning screenshot, Hato briefly reached winds of 100 knots before making landfall over southern China. However, it did not maintain this intensity long enough for it to be shown in an advisory package. As a result, if you have only been following the warning texts themselves, you would have only seen Hato become a Category 2 typhoon. On a somewhat off-topic note, for the first time since the transfer of sovereignty of Macau from Portugal to the PRC, PLA troops were deployed into the special administrative region to help in cleanup efforts. This has shed quite some light on the Macanese government, which has been accused of its unpreparedness for Hato (and consequently explaining why those impact statistics are so high) . Also, the number of fatalities from the typhoon has risen to 26. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:25, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Thanks for the clarification Andrew. Damage cost now at $2.89 billion. While that may warrant retirement, keep in mind that Usagi in 2013 caused much more damage and fatalities but did not get the boot. However, the chances of retirement are still high as Macau may request for the retirement of Hato. I am not sure of their record when it comes to retirement requests though. (I am not even certain if they ever requested — yes, they have submitted names but they're still under China, so...) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:13, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
This one is about a hundred miles away from the Philippines. It's within a high chance of formation as of now. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 02:12, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Jolina)
A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by the JTWC. This has already been named Jolina by PAGASA. We'll definitely see Pakhar from this system. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 10:27, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 16W (Jolina)
Now a TD. Will become Pakhar soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Pakhar (Jolina)
Upgraded by JMA, winds are at 40 mph (10-min) and pressure is at 1000 millibars. Ryan1000 21:12, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pakhar could become a typhoon before landfall in China. I can now officially say that I have tracked every name on the WPac lists. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 21:16, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * TG, great job on that achievement. :) Pakhar looks like a threat to the region just west of where Hato hit. The Philippines could also receive some impacts tomorrow. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:49, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pakhar (Jolina) is currently bringing rain to the Philippines. Intensity up to 45 mph/996 mbar. Never   forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 05:20, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * And we somewhat forgot this storm because we were focusing mainly on Harvey. Anyway, it just got off the Philippines. Wind speed up to 50 mph (1-min).  Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 06:27, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is about to landfall west of Hong Kong soon. Any damage should not be too bad due to the weak nature of Pakhar. The area has seen much worse, and I do not think the Philippines received much either. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Pakhar
Now it's a STS nearing landfall. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 06:15, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Pakhar (2nd time)
Weakened to a TS as it made landfall in between Hainan and Hong Kong. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:04, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Pakhar
Didn't meet its forecast potential, but it was nice seeing another STS in the basin. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:06, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * At least 1 death is reported. Minor damage (compared to Hato) though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:08, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
And another just formed about a couple thousand miles away from Japan. It's at a low chance of formation as of now. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) - 68.106.0.77 02:12, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * It now has a medium chance to develop. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:03, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * If this is Sanvu, it will be not that strong, but not that weak either. I don't want the name Sanvu to go to waste. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:14, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * JTWC outlook for the invest says that NAVGEM forecasts a strong typhoon but other models don't show as much. Hope "Sanvu" is not wasted. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:52, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * This has now gone back down to a low chance of development. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:51, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oops, seems that the JMA TD is different from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:32, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (late August)
97W is now back up to a medium chance of developing, but has been upgraded into a TD by JMA. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:18, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Disappeared from JTWC, but still a TD on JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:41, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Dissipated. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:48, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wait, the Wikipedia article says that this depression formed east of Vietnam, and not hundreds of miles south of Japan... so I guess 97W dissipated long before JMA tracked this TD. Hope I did not cause more confusion though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:31, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
And another invest has formed, just behind 97W. This invest also has a low chance of formation. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:51, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gone T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:17, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * And it's back again. Low chance of developing though. 97W disappeared mysteriously. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:40, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * And now it's a medium chance of formation. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 06:29, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now a high COF (chance of formation). Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 06:17, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Now a TD per JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:48, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * At a high chance of formation, and a tropical cyclone formation alert was issued. 99W will probably be Sanvu. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:03, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hey kids. Time for our next name... Sanvu! Should probably become a TS in the next couple days or so. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:49, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sanvu
The top heading is subject to change. I hope it is just temporary; JTWC hasn't upgraded Sanvu to a TS/TD yet. JMA has named this system though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:07, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sanvu is now upgraded to a TS by the JTWC. Expected to become decently strong. (Fun fact: This was the very first WPac storm name that I tracked in 2012.) T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:55, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * And finally JTWC followed suit. Forecast to stay away from any land areas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:23, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * The JTWC was getting very excited about Sanvu a couple days ago, and this may become a respectable typhoon in the coming days. The JMA currently reports the storm's intensity to be 40 knots (45 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 992 mbar (hPa). They expect steady intensification to 80 knots (90 mph)/950 mbar (hPa) over the next few days. The JTWC, noting the current monsoonal nature of Sanvu, also estimate winds of 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained) , gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). As the STR dictates a northward and eventually northeastward motion for the storm, the latter agency also predicts peak winds of 80 knots (90 mph), gusting to 100 knots (115 mph). It appears that shear will prevent any intensification afterwards, but I hope that Sanvu can attain Category 2 (or a higher) status before dissipating. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:03, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope so too. Sanvu appears to have favorable conditions until the calendar flips over to September. This could be another Banyan, but I hope it can get more intense than that since it won't threaten anybody whatsoever. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:33, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Little new to report from Sanvu. The JMA is still reporting the same intensity as my last post, with the same forecast peak expected in a few days. Owing to increasing Dvorak estimates, the JTWC has raised their estimated winds for Sanvu up to 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained), gusting to 55 knots (65 mph). Despite favorable outflow and SSTs of around 30°C, it is looking likely that shear will prevent any rapid intensification. The JTWC has lowered their forecast peak winds for the storm to 75 knots (85 mph), gusting to 90 knots (105 mph). Later on in the forecast period, Sanvu is forecast to begin extratropical transition, capping off its intensity afterwards. Expect another typhoon, albeit a weak one. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:28, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Sanvu
Starting to up its game now. This storm is up to 55 knots/980 mbar. I have high hopes that Sanvu can become a typhoon, becoming the first incarnation of Sanvu to do so. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:25, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's likely to be a typhoon. I'm hoping to have another typhoon be a fishspinner. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:03, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * This thing is huge. The JMA states that sustained TS-force winds extend 270 nmi to the north and 500 nmi to the south; this gives a gale diameter of at least 770 nmi (885 mi; 1425 km). The JTWC mentioned that one feeder band extends more than 900 nmi (1035 mi; 1665 km) from the circulation center. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:58, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Um, woah! I saw the satellite of Sanvu and it does seem pretty large. Anyway, JTWC has the storm at 55 knots. Expected to become a typhoon, and it would be cool to see "Sanvu" do that for the first time ever. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:15, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Sanvu
And there you have it. 75 mph (10-min), 85 mph (1-min)/965 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:28, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally! I was hoping Sanvu would become a typhoon. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:01, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Peaked as a C2 earlier, but now has weakened into a tropical storm according to JTWC. Still a typhoon on the JMA's part. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:51, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sanvu
Transitioned into a tropical cyclone. Unfortunately, Sanvu caused 1 death. T G  2 0 1 7 11:00, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mawar
Suddenly jumped to TS strength according to the JMA. Only a TD according to JTWC. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:01, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * It will hit China on Sunday. 40 mph (10-min), 35 mph (1-min)/998 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:31, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Mawar
Nobody has updated this, but Mawar became a STS last night, and will possibly impact China as a Category 1. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 50 kts (JMA) and 45 kts (JTWC). I doubt it will get as strong as C1, but it is an outside possibility. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:11, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Mawar
Surprised that no one updated this but Mawar made landfall in China and I think it's Post-Tropical. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 06:38, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

September
WPac is well into September 1 now, so let's start this section now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:06, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
Currently has a high chance of formation, but is also very close to the Philippines right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 19W (Kiko)
Oops, it has intensified to a TD according to JTWC, and has already been named Kiko by PAGASA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:03, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Seems like we've lost attention here since Irma became a 5 in the Atlantic, but anyways, this is moving northwest and will likely pass just south of or over southern Taiwan before moving into China as a TS. Ryan1000 00:28, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm mostly focused on Irma. Anyway, I think it will steal the name Guchol as a weak TS and make landfall in China. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:39, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Guchol (Kiko)
Oh great, it intensified to a TS according to JMA. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 03:30, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Expected to dissipate soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:57, September 7, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Guchol (Kiko)
Dead. What a waste of a name... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:39, September 7, 2017 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
Medium chance of development as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:57, September 7, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. T G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++ , A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5  )

International names:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 80% - Nanmadol caused more damage and caused the same amount of fatalities as Typhoon Nabi did, and it got retired. Yes, other storms that struck Japan like Talas didn't cause as much damage but caused more fatalities. When it comes to Japan, damage is the key factor for retirement.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#049">15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : Grade: <font color="#049">A+++++ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - From a Category 1 minimal typhoon to a Category 5 super typhoon. It didn't seem possible to me, but it happened. Best storm I have ever witnessed. Unfortunately, two fatalities occurred, but that isn't enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: 40% - Sonca struck Indochina very hard for being so weak. Due to Sonca's slow movement, 30-40+ deaths have been reported in that region. Sonca also caused some of the worst flooding in Thailand in years. Due to those statistics, there is a moderate chance of Sonca being retired, but due to Thailand's track record, it is likely that Sonca won't be retired.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - Nesat was a very minimal typhoon that struck Taiwan, and didn't do much damage.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Caused some damage in Taiwan and China after Nesat did, increasing damage totals in Taiwan from both storms.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Nalgae failed to meet the forecast peak intensity. Nalgae didn't affect any land, so Nalgae will be back in 2022-2024.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : Grade: <font color="#FC0">C- Retirement: 0% - Failed to meet all forecasts and also managed to become the first ever Typhoon Banyan, resulting in a grade higher than a D+. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 14:06, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Hato : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 90% - Hato was the worst storm in half a century for Macau. That will most likely make Hato leave the lists, but then again it's China.  T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ccffff">Pakhar : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - We'll see what happens in Macau, as it just got whiplashed by Hato. Otherwise, Hato was a very pathetic storm. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:10, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

PAGASA names:
 * All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
50% or more=italics

Here goes nothing...

International PAGASA That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:04, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

JMA names

 * Muifa - 0% - see you again in 5-7 years.
 * Merbok - 0% - same as above.
 * Nanmadol - 35% - if Nabi '05 got retired for causing similar death toll and cost of damage (30+ fatalities and nearly $1 billion damage), it is likely that Nanmadol may be retired. However, Talas '11 did not get retired, so I am doubtful if Nanmadol gets retired.
 * Talas - 10% - damaging, but Vietnam and the rest of Indochina has seen worse. (Also, its 2011 incarnation was more notable than this one.)
 * Noru - 8% - one of the best storms of the season. 2 deaths so far, damage still unknown, but uonestly Japan has seen worse. (Nanmadol '17 was even worse)
 * Kulap - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Roke - 5% - made impact, but not quite notable.
 * Sonca - 15% - see Talas. (Plus the fact that the retirement record of Indochina countries are not that good.)
 * Nesat - 20% - made impact too, and the damage totals are not yet fully reported. Its 2011 incarnation, just like Talas, was more significant in terms of impact. China has seen worse though.
 * Haitang - 10% - same with Nesat, although much weaker.
 * Nalgae - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Banyan - TBA - still active.

PAGASA names

 * Auring to Fabian: 0%. No, just no. See y'all in 2021
 * Gorio: 15%. Notable, but the Philippines had seen worse episodes of the enhanced SW monsoon. Maring '13 (Trami '13) wasn't retired, so why retire Gorio?
 * Huaning: 0%. Little impact to the Philippines.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, August 11, 2017 (UTC).

Retirements from Steve
Check the "Notes" tab for explanations on why I did some things the way I did. International=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#A00">Z - Affected the Caroline Islands, but without damage/deaths. It lasted a week, which prevents me from giving this my worst grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#F80">D+ - South China has been through much worse, so don't expect a retirement here.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F50">D - Has a pretty decent chance at retirement due to the damage and deaths it caused in Japan.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#F50">D - Retirement is doubtful. Its 2011 incarnation has done much worse.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#006">A+++(x∞)  - One of the most awesome storms I have ever seen, becoming the 3rd longest lasting WPac storm on record as well as really unexpectedly becoming a C5 super typhoon during an explosive intensification stunt. 2 reported deaths, but damage should not be too bad.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F20">D- - A weakling, but defied forecasts and lasted for a week. This gives it a barely passing grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#F00">F - Although a failure, it reached a low pressure for a 40 mph storm as well as caused some impacts and deaths. Not as destructive as Talas though, but more deadly. The deaths and damage from flooding (including from Thailand's worst flash floods in years) could give this a slight shot at retirement. Indochina's retirement record is not that great however.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#A00">Z - Pathetic failure, but brought rain to land and lasted two days. Also rose the HKO typhoon warning signal to 8.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#FF0">C - Not much damage caused, but sadly 2 deaths.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#F00">F - Weak, but 50 mph/985 mbars make it avoid the Z classifications. Caused more damage in the region Nesat hit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : <font color="#779">~0%  ,  <font color="#F00">F  - Weak fishie that was quite pathetic.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#8F0">C+  - Became a C2-equivalent, but had potential to get stronger.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Hato : <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#0B3">B  - RI'd to exceed all predictions, but was very destructive. As one of the worst storms in Macau's recent history, 26 fatalities and a whooping $2.89 billion in damage could make this leave the lists. Usagi, which struck a similar location, was even worse, but that was snubbed. So a small chance exists that this could also be snubbed (hope not). Macau was only barely affected by Usagi, though.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Pakhar : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#F50">D  - Failed to meet initial forecasted intensity (but still became a STS). 8 deaths and $49 million isn't enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Sanvu : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Mostly a fishspinner, but affected the Mariana Islands and caused a 33-year old woman to drown.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Mawar : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#F50">D - No damage or deaths (so far). Let's hope it stays that way.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Guchol : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) - Slightly affected land like Mawar did, with no damage/deaths. But this was an epic fail, waste of a good name.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.



PAGASA=


 * All names: <font color="#888">0% - None meet the requirements yet.



Notes= Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0% (PAGASA only), <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% (PAGASA only) 

Intensity colors: <font color="#00faf4">Weak-Moderate TS, <font color="#ccffff">Severe TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 (Minor Typhoon) , <font color="#ffe775">C2 (Moderate Typhoon) , <font color="#ffc140">C3 (Major Typhoon) , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 (Intense Typhoon) , <font color="#ff6060">160-180 mph C5 (Super Typhoon) , <font color="#900">≥185 mph C5 (Cataclysmic Super Typhoon) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:19, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin, which is the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired. A percentage that is in-between is never used in such a basin.
 * For other basins that don't have retirement requirements (the vast majority of basins), ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The color for "Cataclysmic Super Typhoon" is made up and not part of the official color classification. The "major typhoon" label is partially borrowed from the NHC basins.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Might as well make some calls:

JMA names: PAGASA Names: Ryan1000 22:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Muifa - 1% - Only minor effects to some islands in the WPac. It'll be back in ~6 years.
 * Merbok - 6% - Caused some damage to southern China but they've snubbed worse storms than this.
 * Nanmadol - 40% - Somewhat notable storm for Japan, though I'm not sure if this'll be retired. They did snub a few storms that were worse, but we'll see.
 * Talas - 5% - Wasn't too bad for Vietnam.
 * Noru - 25% - Temporary percentage; currently the damage isn't known yet, but fortunately the death toll is low, even lower than Nanmadol.
 * Kulap - 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Sonca - 5% - Not much different from Talas.
 * Roke - 1% - Even less than Merbok, and that's not going either.
 * Nesat - 5% - Caused some damage to Taiwan and China but they've seen much worse and it's not going.
 * Haitang - 1% - Caused some damage, but again, it's not enough.
 * Nalgae - 0% - See Kulap.
 * All names - 0% - So far, no storm has met their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities, so nothing's getting retired from PAGASA yet.

Replacement names
-Nanmadol replacement options- Since Nan Madol is a landmark in Micronesia, here are some replacement options:
 * Sawarlap - A waterfall in Micronesia
 * Sawartik - The twin waterfall of Sawarlap
 * Winipat - A mountain
 * Lelu - Ruins in Micronesia (Best in my opinion)

-Hato replacement options- Since Hato is a name of a constellation (Columba):
 * Tori - bird-of-paradise/Apus
 * Okami - wolf/Lupus (My favorite)
 * Kitsune - fox/Vulpecula

I do know that it is much harder to figure out the replacement names of a WPac storm, but I tried to think of the best options. Tell me which one is your favorite. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:40, August 25, 2017 (UTC)