Forum:2019-20 Australian Region cyclone season

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AOI: Well North of the Kimberley Coast
It's been eerily quiet in this basin, but it appears that the Australian region's hibernation is coming to a close. BOM is monitoring something in this area for potential development, currently with a "Low" chance for Monday and a potentially higher chance afterwards. Blake, anyone? ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  20:46, December 27, 2019 (UTC)

Down to "Very Low" chance for now, although it could still become something by next weekend. ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  21:07, December 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * There is already excellent agreement between the ECMWF, ICON and GFS that this will become a CATEGORY 5 in 10 days at landfall on the Pilbara or Kimberley Coast. -- Java Hurricane  03:54, December 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * That sounds scary, I guess this is one to really watch out for. Now on BOM's western outlook with a "low" chance. ~  Steve   Goodbye  2019!  ⚰️  06:53, January 1, 2020 (UTC)


 * The Australian region has been unsually quiet! I do not believe there has been another season in this basin that has made it to the new year without cyclone formation! This particular AOI is not a tropical low yet per the BoM, but it seems that it will be far enough from Australia to quickly develop. JavaHurricane, are the models forecasting a Category 5 landfall on the SSHWS or the Australian scale? Regardless, if that prediction verifies, this AOI will be a storm to remember. For now, the AOI has a low chance of developing by the end of the week. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:22, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

We might get a storm or two to form here soon enough, we'd need less than 3 tropical storms to beat the record-dead 2015-16 season. Also Steve, I see that you've made some changes to the active storms header for 2020 to add invests that haven't formed yet, which looks nice, but I believe we need more clarity on seeing the words we type, so I darkened the background a little bit. Also, is the "unusual basins" really needed for separate storm formation? Or can we just keep on adding south atlantic storms and mediterranean storms to the Atlantic when they form, since they aren't that common to begin with? Ryan1000 15:05, January 2, 2020 (UTC)
 * The latest GFS run is horrible enough... https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/535652444038889472/662134205924507679/gfs_mslp_wind_aus_52.png. Please look at that at your own risk. Obtained from a Discord server I am on. -- Java Hurricane  15:21, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

Man, looks like Blake-to-be will be immensely devastating if that 919 mbar cat 5 scenario comes to pass...hopefully the actual intensity ends up being more conservative, or it strikes an unpopulated area of the northwestern coastline. Ryan1000 15:54, January 2, 2020 (UTC) The ECMWF also wants a large version of Tracy to thrash Darwin. --'' Java Hurricane  16:21, January 2, 2020 (UTC)