Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season/October-December

October
Surprised that no one has updated the WPac forum page yet. Anyway, let's begin this now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:23, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
And the dormant phase of the WPac didn't last that long. Another invest has appeared on Tropical Tidbits, and this one is at the east of Luzon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:23, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now dead. Oddly, the WPac is completely silent. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:23, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it has been 15 days since this month began. No new named storms. WPac just became dead, just like what happened to EPac last July. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:46, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
First of the three new WPac invests. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:48, October 20, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Became a JMA TD according to Wikipedia. JMA has since dropped it but it's still on Tropical Tidbits. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:05, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
And another one according to Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:48, October 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Yutu
I think this is the one that developed, but we now have Yutu. Currently located northwest of Pohnpei. Expected to become something very significant in the long run; JTWC is taking this thing to 135 knots at the end of the forecast. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:54, October 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * GFS recurves Yutu east before striking Japan down the road, hopefully that's the case. The Euro takes it farther west, but kills it due to less favorable conditions near Taiwan and China. Either scenario would mean less impacts than some of the previous super typhoons we've seen this year. Ryan1000 15:02, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Yutu
Up to typhoon intensity, although the track and intensity of the storm into next week is still uncertain. Likely to become a strong 4 or 5 in the near-future though. Ryan1000 11:36, October 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Category 3 intensity already at 125 mph / 950 mbars. The JTWC takes this storm to a peak of 170 mph now. Here comes yet ANOTHER fishspinner category 5. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:20, October 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like Yutu is hell-bent on making up for this. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:00, October 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * you too fam, you too will get de wish of blastin up de powah to cat 5 like de ting dat went kong rey trami mango nut --Next time we meet, I&#39;m gonna land a thousand strikes on that face of yours. (talk) 01:09, October 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Its now a Cat 5 with 165 mph winds. However, this storm has just beat MANGKHUT as the strongest storm of the season with 130 mph 10-min sustained winds and a 905 mbar pressure! Wow. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 10:55, October 24, 2018 (UTC)

Yutu is slamming the islands of Saipan and Tinian right now as a monstrous 155kt Category 5. This has quickly become frightening. Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 16:07, October 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Most of their buildings are made from reinforced concrete, built after previous super typhoons that devastated them in the distant past, though it's still nerve-racking to see a typhoon this powerful hit the Mariana Islands. Hopefully no one gets hurt. Ryan1000 16:50, October 24, 2018 (UTC)

Yutu has became the strongest landfalling storm in the Northern Marianas. This became a retirement candidate all of a sudden. And Yutu actualy surpassed Michael as the third most intense landfaling storm in the U.S. and its territories. And it is still a C5 as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:01, October 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow, I guess this is the Michael of the Marianas (except slightly stronger). So far, unless it becomes the most devastating system in northern Mariana Islands history (likely will be), I'm not too certain about it being a big retirement candidate since the northern Marianas are quite sparsely populated. But dang, this is one powerful system. In the long run, hopefully it will go out to sea like what models on Tropical Tidbits suggest, but northern Luzon, Taiwan, and Japan might still need to watch out. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:31, October 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * So, does Yutu count as the first Category 5 to make landfall in the US since Andrew if Michael isn’t upgraded in post-analysis? Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 14:04, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'd say so. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:18, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I agree. The forecast cone is getting dangerously close to land now, and Luzon and Taiwan should especially look out and prepare. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:44, October 26, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Yutu (Rosita)
After weeks of inactivity, the Philippines has another storm in its area. And unfortunately, this is becoming scary for northern Luzon too, which is still recovering from Mangkhut/Ompong. As of now, Yutu is still a Category 5, but expected to weaken later on. However, a Category 3+ landfall is still likely for northern Luzon, which is not good at all; many people are travelling to their home provinces for the All Saints/All Souls holiday – which fell on Thursday and Friday, which effectively brings a long weekend for Filipinos. And Yutu/Rosita is expected to make landfall a day or two before that: either on Halloween or the day before Halloween. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:44, October 27, 2018 (UTC)

Do you think Yutu/Rosita's name will be retired after the storm? Do you think it's track will be like Koppu/Lando, but more on Northern than Central Luzon? Jskylinegtr (talk) 10:24, October 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yutu will likely be retired regardless of its Philippine impacts, due to the immense destruction it brought to the Northern Marianas. But Rosita? That I am not sure of... yet. Official forecast track from PAGASA is similar to Mangkhut/Ompong and Haima/Lawin. Those two typhoons had both their PAGASA and official (WMO) names retired. If the track shifts to the south and affects Central Luzon, that would be a more catastrophic scenario. Let's just hope Yutu/Rosita would significantly weaken before hitting the landmass of Luzon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:11, October 27, 2018 (UTC)

But what i hope for is, it has a Lawin/Ompong like location, but after hitting Lawin/Ompong areas, forecasts are saying it will curve ala Koppu/Lando, with Yutu already sure to be out! Ompong, while no sources are saying about retiring the name, but the name is already like 100% sure to be removed. Jskylinegtr (talk) 13:56, October 27, 2018 (UTC)

make sure this doesn't happen today¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 01:07, October 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Landfall won't happen until Monday at least, but this is getting increasingly scary for Luzon. JTWC forecasts it to slam into Luzon at 130 knots (150 mph). The track has continued to shift further west and it now appears that China and Taiwan are also in the danger zone. I think Yutu is certain to be retired at this point, with Rosita also looking likely to be devastating enough for retirement... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:21, October 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Seems like Koppu/Lando 2.0, Do you think typhoons with the letter R in PAGASA list 2 tend to become one and done (eg. Ruby, Reming)? Jskylinegtr (talk) 08:00, October 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to a 125 mph category 3 typhoon, and is now expected to weaken to 110 mph as it makes landfall. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 15:45, October 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Thank God Yutu is finally weakening. This is becoming more like Krosa/Vinta 2013 or Mirinae/Santi 2009. Anyway, precipitation from Yutu/Rosita still needs to be watched out for. And just a reply to Jskylinegtr, I must say that there is some sort of a curse going on with the "R" name in PAGASA's list 2, but I still cannot tell whether or not it is (or will be) similar to the so-called "I", "C" and "M" curses that have been going on in the Atlantic for years. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:25, October 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * How much damage do you think the storm will cause in PHP, i hope the damage exceeds 1 billion so the name will be retired. Jskylinegtr (talk) 09:35, October 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Still depends on the amount of rainfall. But given Yutu's speed and current weakening trend, maybe Rosita won't be retired. And I hope it won't get retired, because if it does get the boot, that simply means it is destructive. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:27, October 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Making landfall in Luzon right about now. Rosita could be a wildcard for retirement, but we'll find out later if it is destructive enough. Yutu could alone be retired for the Northern Mariana impacts, Luzon impacts will just increase the chance. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:30, October 30, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Yutu (Rosita)
Down to a STS after crossing the Philippines. Hopefully impacts weren't too severe, as the forests on northeastern Luzon aren't the most populated part of the country. Megi in 2010 hit there as a 180 mph cat 5 super typhoon, but fortunately wasn't too destructive, hopefully that's the case with Yutu as well. Ryan1000 23:08, October 30, 2018 (UTC)

Megi's PAGASA name was retired, do you think Rosita will be retired as well? Jskylinegtr (talk) 06:00, October 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Yutu (Rosita)
I think retirement for Rosita is a possibility. The system is now weakening in the South China Sea and both agencies actually expect dissipation before Chinese landfall. lol. ~  Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  💀👻  04:02, November 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * 15 deaths in the Philippines so far, 12 others missing. Death toll in the Northern Marianas is now at 2. Yutu is now dying; currently a TD on JTWC but remains as a TS per JMA. Hopefully it won't be a major rain event in southern China. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:08, November 1, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Yutu (Rosita)
It's pretty much dead now, but still not off of JMA's page yet. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:07, November 3, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Yutu (Rosita)
Been dead for a while now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:11, November 9, 2018 (UTC)

Rosita has caused 2.9 billion PHP in damage, Bye Yutu for your damage in Guam, and Rosita will be joining Ompong in retirement. Jskylinegtr (talk) 12:39, November 10, 2018 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
And WPac is slowly coming back to life. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:48, October 20, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Became a JMA TD, affected Indochina and later crossed into the NIO - redesignated as 98B. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:05, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
Another new invest on Tropical Tidbits currently located just north of the Marshall Islands. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:43, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:23, October 28, 2018 (UTC)

November
It's November in the WPac, and the Philippines may have to watch out, as the WPac can produce some dangerous late-season storms for them, like in previous years. Hopefully nothing too serious forms, this year has been active enough as it is. Ryan1000 10:03, November 1, 2018 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Designated in the WPac, but crossed over to the North Indian. See that forum's page for future posts regarding this system. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:56, November 9, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 98C)
A continuation of a CPac system that was monitored by the CPHC a few days back. It has crossed into the WPac and appears to be developing here. Declared a TD by JMA; TCFA issued by JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:56, November 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Don't see this on JMA's weather map anymore but it remains code orange on JTWC. I think development might still happen over the next few days. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:06, November 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to code yellow per JTWC.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:59, November 11, 2018 (UTC)

Back up to code orange, and it's a JMA TD again. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:44, November 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. I swear this has to be one of the longest tracked invests I've ever seen. It took weeks for it to get to this point. It was tracked from the CPac (where first noticed) all the way to east of the Philippines, where it's currently at. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:09, November 18, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 33W (Samuel)
Now a 30 mph tropical depression per the JTWC. Expected to become Man-yi and hit Vietnam with winds of at least 70 mph. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:39, November 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hopefully Samuel (future Man-yi) won't follow Seniang/Jangmi's destructive nature (Samuel replaced Seniang in the PAGASA list), as it is expected to make landfall in the Northern Mindanao/Eastern Visayas general area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:30, November 18, 2018 (UTC)

If this becomes Man-yi we'd be at 27 named storms, quite the active WPac season and we still could get a few more after this. Man-yi-to-be should cross over the Philippines and eventually hit southern Vietnam like Toraji, hopefully its not a destructive storm though. Ryan1000 21:44, November 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * With 34W snatching Man-yi from this one, I am now thinking this will be Usagi or won't be named by JMA at all. It is now nearing landfall, and it has lots of rain associated with it. Not looking good so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:11, November 20, 2018 (UTC)

Hasn't become Usagi yet, but it still could become Usagi before it hits southern Vietnam like Toraji did. Ryan1000 12:16, November 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Usagi
Has left the Philippine AOR (PAR), and intensified to a TS. 29th storm overall (counting Hector), 28th from the JMA lists. This may exacerbate Toraji's effects... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:46, November 22, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Usagi
Took a while to become a tropical storm, probably because of Philippines land interaction. Now a STS and threatening southern Vietnam, hopefully it won't significantly worsen Toraji's aftermath. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:14, November 23, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Usagi
Now a typhoon as it nears southern Vietnam. Hopefully they are well-prepared for this one, even if it is weaker compared to previous typhoons that affected Vietnam. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:46, November 24, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Usagi (2nd time)
Down to a STS again, but nearing a landfall as we speak. Ryan1000 01:18, November 25, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Usagi (2nd time, landfall in Vietnam)
Usagi made landfall in southern Vietnam recently as a tropical storm, with (hopefully) only minimal effects. Ryan1000 15:29, November 25, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Usagi
Down to a TD as it dies over Indochina. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:10, November 26, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Usagi
Gone. Ryan1000 23:57, November 27, 2018 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
Another new invest on Tropical Tidbits located near the Philippines, but this likely won't do much. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:10, November 13, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Now located in the South China Sea and declared a TD according to JMA. Code red on JTWC, TCFA issued. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:46, November 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Toraji
And now we have Toraji, forecast to move over the southern tip of Vietnam soon. Ryan1000 15:49, November 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 40 mph/35 knots (JMA) but still at TD strength on JTWC. Will slam into Vietnam very soon with no more strengthening expected. A name has been wasted, as you can see. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:06, November 18, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Toraji
Made landfall, final advisory issued. This storm is dead. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:43, November 18, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Toraji
It reorganized over the Gulf of Siam, and struck the Malay Peninsula. It's been truly dead for a few days now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:17, November 23, 2018 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
New invest far out to sea that's code yellow on JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:47, November 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 34W
And now it's 34W. Ryan1000 21:45, November 19, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Man-yi
And now it stole Man-yi from 33W. Forecast to be a Category 2-equivalent fishspinner, but may just miss Guam by a few hundred kilometers. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:10, November 20, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi
Upgraded to STS status by JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:17, November 22, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Man-yi
Now a typhoon, expected to peak at 90 kts (1-min). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:47, November 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's probably at peak intensity now (currently 90 knots/105 mph by JTWC, 80 knots/90 mph by JMA), although JMA still forecasts slightly more intensification by tomorrow. It's nice that it's just spinning fish. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:21, November 23, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Man-yi (Tomas)
And it has entered PAGASA's jurisdiction. No threat to land and forecast to weaken further in the coming days. Man-yi/Tomas is currently a Category 1-equivalent typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:46, November 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Still a typhoon according to JMA, but Man-yi has just about been sheared to nothingness right now and will likely be downgraded to a TS or even dissipate soon, unless it can recover convection. Ryan1000 15:13, November 25, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Man-yi (Tomas)
Down to a TS and should gradually die over the next few days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:12, November 26, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Man-Yi
And RIP. Ryan1000 23:57, November 27, 2018 (UTC)