Forum:2009 Pacific hurricane season/Jimena

====13E.JimenaEdit====

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94E.INVESTEdit===== Formerly 93L, NHC has it at a medium chance of development. Models seem to think it'll hug the coast. --Patteroast 16:24, 28 August 2009 (UTC)
 * Whoa, both HWRF and GFDL make this a major hurricane, HWRF a category 4 making landfall in Sinaloa and GFDL a category 3 making landfall in Baja California Sur. NHC's got it at high risk, and is saying it could be a depression any time now. Definitely keeping an eye on this... --Patteroast 01:50, 29 August 2009 (UTC)

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Tropical Depression 13EEdit===== Advisories initiated. Forecast keeps it clear of Mexico, hope that proves to be true! --Patteroast 02:45, 29 August 2009 (UTC)

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Hurricane JimenaEdit===== Upgraded, and in the words of NHC 'rapidly intensifying'! Nearly a hurricane, forecast to be a major hurricane, and the forecast cone worryingly has Baja in its sights again... --Patteroast 14:46, 29 August 2009 (UTC)
 * Ahem. Excuse me, when I went to double check after posting, I noticed that Jimena's already been upgraded to hurricane. Yikes. --Patteroast 14:49, 29 August 2009 (UTC)
 * Category 2,and the Forecast goes as high as 125-Kt winds!--L.E./12.144.5.2 01:00, 30 August 2009 (UTC)
 * Category 4! And still going. Wow, what a storm! Jimena is stunning. Gorgeous symmetrical appearance, textbook pinhole eye and wicked cloud tops on the IR (though not as cold as I've seen, even recently). I think NHC's forecast peak of 125 knots may be conservative and I think meant to allow for the possibility of an eyewall cycle (which is almost customary of storms like this). I think the actual peak could easily end up being 130-135 knots. IMO, Category 5 is unlikely at this point but I wouldn't rule it out. -- SkyFury 17:27, 30 August 2009 (UTC)
 * Now at 125Kt(145 mph) with forecast peaking at 130Kt tomorrow.--L.E./12.144.5.2 02:55, 31 August 2009 (UTC)

My God. Things have gone from bad to worse for Baja. NHC now puts it right offshore as a 140 mph Category 4. If the current forecast holds, I shudder to think what southern Baja is going to look like come Wednesday morning. This could be the worst hurricane Baja has ever seen. A 140 mph Category 4 doesn't leave much behind. Just ask the citizens of Galveston, Texas c.1900. Better pray for an eyewall cycle at about this time tomorrow. Those in Cabo need to start getting ready to leave right now. -- SkyFury 03:28, 31 August 2009 (UTC)
 * 150mph at the intermediate advisory.Pressure down to 27.63inHg(936mb)...does that knock 940,sustained all day before,out of the Betting Pool?--L.E./12.144.5.2 20:17, 31 August 2009 (UTC)

Latest in on Jimena, winds are 155 mph, pressure at 931 mbars. It is very close to cat 5 and it will probrably reach that strength by later today. 173.105.159.119 20:43, 31 August 2009 (UTC)
 * Advisory 13 is out,and the winds are at 155mph and pressure at 27.49inHg(931mb)...forecast now shows only weakening.--L.E./12.144.5.2 20:44, 31 August 2009 (UTC)
 * Hopefully the worst of the storm will strike the less populated southwest coast and miss the resort areas around Cabo. I think we're looking at a 110-115 knot landfall at this point but the eastern eyewall could strike at 120 knots. As it will be on the east side of the storm, I have a hard time seeing the storm surge at Cabo as being anything but very bad. The tough part is that just a small shift to the west or east could make a big difference in the severity of the impact. The strongest landfall in Baja California history was 110-knot Hurricane Olivia in 1967, a really odd storm in that it first crossed the peninsula as a tropical storm but rapidly intensified in the Gulf of California and came back to strike a rural stretch of Baja's east coast. Norbert just last year was the strongest to strike the west coast of Baja at 90 knots. Jimena makes Norbert look like chicken sh!t. I sure hope people are getting the heck out of there. -- SkyFury 23:56, 31 August 2009 (UTC)
 * Advisory 14 reports wind and pressure unchanged since Advisory 13,but the watches have been extended north and east.How easy is it to evacuate a narrow,mountainous peninsula?--L.E./12.144.5.2 02:50, 1 September 2009 (UTC)
 * Track forecast has shifted a little bit west and that's good news Baja, especially Cabo, which looks like it's going to be spared. A forecast discussion last night mentioned that it's possible Jimena reached Category 5 strength briefly yesterday afternoon. -- SkyFury 19:36, September 1, 2009 (UTC)
 * Losing strength as well.But what about dumping those rains on the wildfires around Los Angeles?--L.E./12.144.5.2 04:40, September 2, 2009 (UTC)
 * Not looking likely at this point. Most of the moisture is going to spend itself out over the mountains of northwest Mexico. Some of it may reach Arizona and New Mexico, but California and Nevada are unlikely to see much rain from Jimena. Jimena really hasn't slowed it's weakening trend since the start of the ERC, so that's great news for Baja. That said, I don't think I agree with NHC's more westward track forecast. From the satellite loops, it looks like Jimena is coming in right now. Looking at the four-hour loop, it appears to be headed straight for shore. It looks like the rural stretch of coastline between Isla Santa Margarita and Todos Santos is going to get the worst of the storm. The good news is, that there isn't a well-defined eyewall. The strongest bands should be coming onshore in about 2-3 hours. There are several poor, rural fishing villages that are going to be hit pretty hard by this though. I feel for those people and I hope they have some way to find safe shelter. -- SkyFury 05:59, September 2, 2009 (UTC)

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Jimena InlandEdit===== Jimena is inland now according to CNN, 105 mph 970 mb. 70.189.242.229

Pooff. 70.189.242.229