Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page   Wall   Edits  01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Southeast of Fiona
This one just got added on the two-day outlook and is southeast of Fiona, the wave that will follow Fiona is behind this one. Also at 0/20 but this wave is expected to head farther west towards the Antilles, we might see Gaston from this and Hermine from the above storm, or vise versa. The Atlantic season is really heating up. Ryan1000 19:05, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yep, it's beginning to heat up. Hopefully none of these AOIs end up being devastating hurricanes in the long run. With the warm waters and favorable conditions in the Caribbean though, it's possible they could be destructive. Should gradually develop and become either Gaston or Hermine next week or so.  St  eve  82  0   22:04, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * This was the wave Euro was developing into a hurricane entering the Caribbean and suddenly dropped it. Now all the other models have latch into developing this. This thing have an almost perfect environment as shear is to be low for the next five to seven days. This might be our first major of the season now that Fiona have clear the sal of the way. Models are making it a hurricane before a landfall in PR.  The one over Africa might had more potential if it was further south. It will go straight to Sal that its west of Africa if it can overcome that it might have potentital to be a weak hurricane. interesting days ahead for sure. Allanjeffs 23:38, August 18, 2016 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Now an invest. 10/40. This looks likely to become Gaston or Hermine depending on which wave develops first. GFS takes this to near category 5 strength in the western Atlantic in the long range, but that is still 10 days out. This could be a significant land threat in the long-term, especially if the other wave does not develop. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 00:13, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh wow,this invest wasn't even here this morning and now it's 10/40. Maybe this wave will end up breaking the streak of no landfalling major hurricanes in the US, but hopefully this does not happen... ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:16, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this storm is already looking to be a threatening storm to the Lessers, the models have picked up on this again but are much more aggressive with it when it reaches the Caribbean. This could easily go on to be the first MH of the season. Ryan1000 02:51, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * WHOA! The latest GFS takes this down to 907 mbar, which is category 5 strength! This is definitely an invest to watch in the long term... ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 04:49, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now the GFS says this will be a 904 millibar gargantuan. Then, it will slam New England as a 935-930 millibar hurricane. But at 200-300 hours out, i'd say that would be too good to be true... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:31, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm a bit surprised at how bullish the GFS is with this one, a major hurricane is looking increasingly likely and probably will happen when it passes through the Lessers, but one of the top 10 strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record? 904 mbars is pushing it pretty far. Regardless, the GFS takes it right over the Barbados and moving northwest over Puerto Rico as a very strong hurricane in the coming days, that'll probably be a bad enough storm as it is. If that's not enough, it's also now forecast to move over Hispaniola, Cuba, and eventually curve around to hit the Florida Panhandle as a very strong hurricane 288 hours out. There's a lot of uncertainty to this forecast by that point, but either way this storm could easily surpass Earl a week from now or more as the most notable storm of the season. There's also two more storms GFS shows behind 99L and the wave behind Fiona, and if they form then we'll be at Ian and Julia by September, that's pretty far down the list. Ryan1000 17:49, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still 10/50. I'm not sure whether this is going to develop, since the ECMWF shows virtually no development at all. On the flip side, on the last 3 out of 4 runs, GFS has made this a category 5 hurricane that could be a threat to Florida and the U.S. East Coast. This system has a LOT of uncertainty. Even though it doesn't look good right now, it may improve its looks with time. This may even be Hermine if the above AOI develops first. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 00:28, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * This could be either name, but I think this one might develop first. This is looking like a potential threat over the long run to the U.S., especially if the absolutely threatening GFS model pans out. :( If you want to be strong, 99L, steer clear of land! ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me

18Z GFS forecast shifted the 276 hour-out track from this thing all the way from hitting the Florida Panhandle to Savannah, Georgia. It'll probably take its time to develop into something no matter where it goes, but after it gets through the dry air that's in it's way right now, it's got an oasis to strengthen within. I'm not inclined to buy the Euro's solution at all, they don't even make it becoming anything, and this isn't the first time the European model has been out-performed by the GFS...but in cases where the Euro did do much better than the GFS, it was for historic storms like Sandy. Though I believe the GFS is over-doing this thing intensity-wise, it's better to do that than forecast nothing whatsoever. Ryan1000 03:09, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Latest run of the GFS has backed off on this significantly in the Caribbean, they now expect it to move near Hispaniola and nearly die but move on to eventually hit Central Louisiana as a sizeable storm. Euro still shows nothing, but GFS has constantly been going back and forth with this thing. Ryan1000 11:00, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * 99L certainly has a rough road ahead of it the next few days. It depends on how soon it can organize that will likely determine where it goes. Right now, 99L could end up almost anywhere, which is not good considering it could be a major hurricane threat. Hopefully if it landfalls as a major it avoids major cities. Or it could just not develop like the Euro says and this is just a false alarm. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:20, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 10/60 now, but it still has a while to go before it will become anything. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 17:47, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might develop by the time we see it reach the Lesser Antillies in about 4 days' time. I see this being Hermine, because the other AOI is looking better to develop in the short term. I just hope it isn't a major threat. This could be scary. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  19:26, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm currently not sold on 99L's development, since the latest GFS only shows this as a TS and the EURO doesn't show any development at all. Either way it will have to be watched. If this did somehow develop it would probably be Hermine. ~BOB Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 20:41, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * This may not develop before the system behind it, nor may it become as powerful, but it poses a bigger threat to the U.S. in the long run. With the way things are going right now, we will probably see Hermine from this system and Gaston from the system behind it. Ryan1000 00:25, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now the GFS just dropped it. They have it not really developing into anything. Not even a tropical depression. Looks like Hermine will have to wait... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:53, August 21, 2016 (UTC)

But maybe not? As the circulation becomes better defined and shower activity develops near the center, the NHC has raised the chances to 30/60. Also, conditions are forecast to be favourable for further development. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:11, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 20/50. Fiona's outflow is becoming a problem for 99L, and it's actually become less organized. It still has a pretty good shot at developing though in the future, although some models do not develop it. Due to the land threat, it's probably best if it can't become a strong hurricane. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:25, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Looks like the Euro has won again if this is a continuing trend with 99L... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:34, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Not really actually the Euro have flipped sides along all the other models and develop 99L especially in the vicinity of the Bahamas. 99L now has unanimous support from every model.  GFS,Euro,Ukmet, Navgm and Cmc. This will probably be Hermine by Friday or Saturday.Allanjeffs 21:21, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's very possible it could be Hermine but hopefully only a TS. The 5 days outlook is going down and it is a land threat. I do not want a destructive hurricane, so it will be best for 99L to remain weaker. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:24, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, the GFS and Euro don't make it very strong when it reaches the Bahamas, it may be a minimal to moderate hurricane at best when it nears or makes landfall in southern Florida or somewhere up to nortn Carolina, or it could turn out to sea before doing anything. They're much more aggressive with 90L in the long term than with this one, and although 90L (Gaston) won't hit the U.S, mainland, it could be a big threat to Bermuda or to Newfoundland in the long run. Ryan1000 01:41, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now that EURO among other models mostly all develop this near the Bahamas, I think this could be Hermine after all, but it likely won't be a major hurricane. 99L does look a little better tonight as it is starting to fire some more convection. I think this could develop about a week from now when it reaches the warm waters near the Bahamas, and after that, there is still a lot of uncertainty where it could track. It could go out to sea, be a coast-hugger like Arthur in 2014, or it could slam into Florida/GOM like the EURO suggests. And that is if it even develops. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 02:49, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am sure we might see something come out of 99L. It has plenty of time to develop, and conditions are forecast to be favorable late this week. Again, I predict we may possibly only see a TS from this. Although I would not rule out a hurricane. I hope it is not too strong because of possible future interaction with land, and if it did become strong, the areas might see lots of destruction. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:59, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * The 06z run of the GFS today eventually takes this into the GoM, but as a weak storm. It could strengthen a lot from there on out, but they're not forecasting that far in advance, and a lot of things could change by the time it makes it to the Bahamas. Ryan1000 10:43, August 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * The Euro finally caves to the Gfs previous solution and show a major cat 4 making landfall in the Florida Panhandle. If the run verifies it will be the first major hurricane to impact the U.S since 2005. I hope this was an outlier and dont show anymore solution like this one. The thing is the UKMET and the CMC are also showing 99L entering the gulf. Louisiana and other gulf states should be careful of this system. NHC recon is flying tomorrow into the system.Allanjeffs 22:14, August 22, 2016 (UTC)

Models sure are starting to show doom with this system, an unfortunate change from yesterday. It's now at 30/60 although it isn't really organizing yet. The luck may be running out in terms of the US major hurricane drought. 99L's future isn't written in stone yet, but this is not looking good. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:37, August 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm rather surprised the Euro took the agressive bandwagon with this one on the 12z run Monday, making it a very strong 950 mbar major hurricane hitting the big bend of Florida while the GFS hardly develops this thing at all by now. Both models are agressive with Gaston, though he's not directly heading for land, minus maybe Bermuda or Newfoundland, though even those are looking less and less likely. Both of them also forecast another storm that could cross the northern Cape Verde Islands as a hurricane in 240 hours or so, and another fishspinning hurricane below that one. All of this is a long ways ahead, but if they do materialize we'll be at our 10th storm (Julia) by September 10th or so. Would be pretty impressive to see. Ryan1000 02:48, August 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * ECMWF has this making two hurricane-force landfalls in Florida, and HWRF makes this a 940 mb hurricane approaching Florida in around 5 days. However some other models like the GFS and CMC don't show much development, if any. But seeing as the former are getting increasingly reliable, I'd like Florida to prepare well for a break in the major hurricane drought. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:53, August 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * HWRF is arguably the most reliable model in terms of short-range intensity forecasts, but I'd take long range intensity forecasts from that model with a grain of salt. The Euro makes it a 980 mbar hurricane hitting the Big Bend after hitting West Palm beach as a weaker hurricane, but not as a major on either landfall. It could be a powerful storm if it passes near the record-warm waters and more favorable conditions of the southern and Central Bahamas per Dr. Master's latest blog post, but due to it's large, broad size it likely won't explode to a major unless it heads through the Straits of Florida and into the GoM without hitting Florida's east coast, then turning back to hit the west coast. That would be a worst-case scenario and it was depicted in one of the Euro's earlier runs; hopefully that doesn't happen, but as I mentioned before, 11, let alone 8, consecutive years without a U.S. major hurricane is a record, and that streak can't go on forever. Ryan1000 14:27, August 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * The latest HWRF does not even develop this system. However, the EURO is insistent that this could be a strong hurricane in the northeast Gulf that could make landfall somewhere near Alabama/Mississippi, or maybe even the Big Bend of Florida or Louisiana. I feel like the track and strength of 99L will depend on if it manages to clear Hispaniola. If it does, this could become a very powerful Hurricane Hermine. If it does run into Hispaniola, it probably won't even develop. The GFS seems to crash this into Hispaniola. Although the EURO is generally more accurate, I'm leaning towards this crashing into Hispaniola right now because it seemed like the LLC of 99L was forming farther south than where the models initialized it. We'll probably have a better idea of where 99L's going tomorrow. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now 60/80 per latest NHC outlook. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:43, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * Air force recon managed to find tropical storm force winds in parts of the northern squalls of this thing, but the NHC says the mission is still ongiong to determine if this wave has developed a closed LLC; if it does, this'll be named Hermine immediately and will likely pass over Puerto Rico, skim northern Hispaniola, and move into the Bahamas and Florida in 3-4 days time. Ryan1000 17:07, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is getting scary. We are finally seeing 99L organize, and of course it has to be a major threat. I really hope the Lesser Antilles, Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Florida, and possibly in the distant long run, the Gulf Coast won't see much destruction. If it does end up RIing in the Gulf or even while approaching Florida, it could be devastating. :/ But if it crashes into Hispaniola, we could be saved from a potentially devastating monster. :)~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:32, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * There's actually double circulations associated with this Steve, one circulation is moving over Hispaniola and will probably die soon, but a second circulation is currently north of PR and will likely miss Hispaniola to the north and move into the Bahamas, this second circulation is the one that will probably become Hermine's circulation in a few days. Also the NHC takes this due west over Florida and then into the GoM, where the latest Euro run takes this up Florida's west coast into the big bend, but one of the earlier runs took this all the way to Louisiana and Texas as a major hurricane. A lot of things could change when it passes Florida. Ryan1000 05:11, August 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Chances for development have dropped from 50/80 to 40/70, and most of the thunderstorm activity has been displaced to the south of the circulation of 99L recently, over and just south of Hispaniola. This wave has had a really tough time getting its act together due to strong 15-25 knot wind shear and some dry air as it's heading WNW, but a weakness in the ridge north of the storm could cause it to turn north after it passes the western Bahamas and southern Florida and eventually parallel western Florida as indicated by the Euro. It will also slow down significantly when it reaches the northwestern Bahams and this could lead to more time for strengthening, but it's still very uncertain just how strong it will get, or where it will go past south Florida. Ryan1000 20:51, August 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting 99L to develop anymore. It looks horrible and the EURO has lost confidence on its most recent run. Strange things have happened, but I have to say this 99L is the most frustrating, annoying, complicated, long-lived invest I have ever tracked. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * I actually agree. In fact, I think this is one of the longest threads I have ever seen for a single invest. 99L was a really long-lived, complicated invest that has struggled to develop for several days. But I actually still predict it will develop into a TD by early next week when upper-level winds are anticipated to be more favorable. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:54, August 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * This invest has been very strange. I guess it just doesn't want to become anything yet. It still has a chance later on, but this is quite a long time for an invest to remain just an invest without strengthening. If it doesn't develop, that will be good for any land in it's path however. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 01:51, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * It could become something when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend and into next week, but 99L is so disorganized and so sheared that it's now down to only 30/60 and it's expected to miss making landfall in southern Florida and instead pass between southern Florida and Cuba. But because of that, it could miss the tail end of the front and head towards the western Gulf near Louisiana or Texas instead of recurving back to hit Florida's west coast, which means it may have much longer time over water. And the western GoM could be fairly favorable for development by then. Ryan1000 02:25, August 26, 2016 (UTC)

Now it's down to 20/60, and the recon mission to investigate this today has been cancelled. This invest has been surprisingly underwhelming, it may not even become anything at all if conditions don't lighten up in the next few days. Ryan1000 16:29, August 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Back up to 30/60, but development isn't expected until after it enters the GoM through the straits of Florida, and even then it's not guaranteed. Ryan1000 01:42, August 27, 2016 (UTC)

99L.INVEST (Continued)
I have decided to make a new header, as it was getting harder to scroll through all of 99L's previous discussions. Ryan, I'm seeing it as 20/50... Anyway, development does not look very likely. This is seriously the longest-lived, annoying, frustrating, and complicated invest I've ever seen. I hope, FOR ONCE, it becomes something in the Gulf of Mexico! (As long as it isn't a major land threat) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:26, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * 20/40, but new convection is bursting somewhere near the center... but it keeps forming and dissipating and forming somewhere else and sometimes 2 centers develop so I have no idea where the actual center is. I'm really doubting this will actually become anything. Heck, I think 91L has a better shot at becoming Hermine! This invest is so messy, unpredictable, and annoying that the NHC must have skull fractures from their headaches caused by trying to predict this system! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:29, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Just wait until it's gone 6 hours from now, but right now there actually appears to be some organization with 99L.  North of the east side of Cuba, there are some spiral cloud bands that have formed. We'll see if 99L actually does something this time. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:01, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Back up to 40/50 now! This invest has had its chances go up and down constantly for the past week. The latest model runs do mostly show development, even the GFS now shows a tropical depression. I want it to either die or form, because this invest has been so long-lasting and annoying that it probably deserves its own archived section. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 00:51, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh no! The latest HWRF model is just nuts. If this model is correct, prepare to see devastation in Tampa, and the areas surrounding it. I'm eyeballing this storm extremely closely. I hope this forecast is not correct... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 02:59, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Most models develop 99L into some kind of landfalling storm. The intensity is debatable though: ECMWF and HWRF both show major hurricane landfalls, while CMC shows a strong tropical storm. GFS shows just a tropical depression. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:14, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40/60. This might be Ian if 91L — now TD8 — intensifies to a TS first. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:55, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's 60/80 now. Ian/Hermine could form tomorrow. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 19:23, August 28, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
FINALLY! " Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Aug 2016 20:38 UTC  NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine at 5 PM EDT." ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 20:44, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * The race to Hermine just heated up... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:53, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Imo this one will be Hermine as its organizing as we speak. Td 8 might become ts Ian tomorrow morning. I am happy it finall develop two weeks of tracking this invest was enough for me. Allanjeffs 21:10, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Fortunately, it's not expected to become very strong in the GoM before it recurves back towards western Florida later this week. Gotta love how we've been discussing more about this thing when it was an invest than when it finally became something... Ryan1000 21:20, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, the NHC said that the forecast is less certain than usual and that they are being quite conservative. Jdcomix (talk) 21:34, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * FINALLY!!! This annoying thing took so long to become something... Anyway, the forecast thankfully does not predict a hurricane, which would be less threatening for the Gulf Coast. Now the race is on. Who will be Hermine first...TD 8 or 9?! The loser receives the name "Ian"! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:09, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, the intensity is a big factor, if it intensifies it's likely to be picked up and recurve towards west Florida, but if it stays weak it may head further west. The GFS and Euro both recurve it back like NHC expects as a weak TS, hopefully it does that so it doesn't get much stronger. Ryan1000 01:53, August 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * This storm could end up completely fooling the models. It seems like it really just insists on moving west no matter what models say. As Ryan said, the extra west movement could allow this to strengthen into a strong storm after all this time. The bad news is that's right before it hits land. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:25, August 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Per latest advisory, this looks like to be strengthening to a TS first before TD8. This will be Hermine. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:16, August 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still a TD but I figured I'd leave this for posterity:


 * BULLETIN
 * TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
 * NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
 * 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016


 * ...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...


 * :D --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:57, August 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * LOL Dylan that was hilarious - the NHC needs to watch what they're putting. :P Anyways, it is STILL not a TS. I hope it will become Hermine tonight or else the stakes are high that TD 8 could instead be Hermine. Luckily no hurricane in the forecast (as of yet). But even TS's can be at least somewhat destructive, take Allison, Debby, and much more for example. Regardless of what Nine's future name is, I hope it does not cause much impacts in the long run to Florida or anywhere else. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:42, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches just went up for portions of Florida's Gulf Coast. I don't think I've ever seen two co-existing Atlantic tropical depressions take so long to become named storms. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:03, August 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * These two depressions are sure taking their time. However, it looks like TD9 is getting closer to TS status with the latest convective burst. Both systems are taking so long to develop it's like a race between turtles... But this system still poses a threat to land, and if it finally becomes a TS next advisory it could strengthen much faster from there. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:45, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * I can't believe TD 9 isn't Hermine yet. The TD's are really taking their time and the race to become Hermine or Ian is being delayed longer and like you said, seems like a race between turtles or even snails. Northwestern Florida needs to watch out as the NHC posted a hurricane watch for the area but I don't think this will become a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:25, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised this thing is taking so long just to become a TS, it's really been struggling over the past few days with wind shear. It might become hermine soon, but even if it manages to strengthen it's going to be hitting the unpopulated big bend area of Florida. Surprisingly enough, most of the models make it stronger after it hits Florida and moves up the east coast, some even take it to New England on Labor Day as a near-major hurricane. That won't be good...  Ryan1000  14:12, August 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * This thing is exploding right now. I can see it becoming a strong cat 1 to cat 2. Its finally taking advantange of its enviroment something not good for Florida. I hope they get prepare for a stronger storm. I am not sure what is happening with Recon this year. They were suppose to be in the storm and nothing.Allanjeffs 06:30, August 31, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hermine
She is finally here after two weeks of tracking it. Right now at 40mph but recon is finding a lot of 45 to 50mph winds. A minimal to mid range cat 1 hurricane is possible with this system.Allanjeffs 18:39, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * May we now present to you all after all this time of patience: Tropical Storm Hermine. Owen 18:44, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * She has really took a long time to become something. Well, Hermine is finally here at last, after 2 WEEKS of waiting. This is quite possibly the longest time I have waited for an AOI/invest to become a named storm. Hermine is threatening the Florida Panhandle right now. I'd even give it probably a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall there. Residents there will have to prepare regardless of whether its a hurricane or not. And I do not want the models mentioned in Ryan's post to come true. This could be devastating if it moves up the US east coast like that and becomes a near-major or even a major. It most probably won't be this destructive, but those models gave me flashbacks to Sandy... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:36, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * It may not directly make landfall as a hurricane, but it will pass close enough to bring high surf and heavy rain and strong winds regardless. Florida is the least of our worries, both the GFS and the Euro loop this thing very slowly around or just offshore the mid-Atlantic region as a fairly strong storm later this week and into next week before moving out to sea. If it manages to become strong enough offshore and make a second landfall in the northeast, Hermine might actually have a chance of retirement down the road. Ryan1000 03:01, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Warning up for part of the NW Florida coast, NHC forecast now officially brings Hermine to minimal hurricane strength by landfall - would be the first Hurricane  Hermine ever if this verifies. Currently 50 kts/998 mbar as of the latest advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:08, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * As a lot of you may know, I live in Florida. School has been canceled for us tomorrow, and it might also be canceled on Friday. The flooding is currently pretty bad here, and the NHC now says Hermine is going to become the first hurricane to strike Florida since Wilma in 2005. Owen 04:33, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Take a look here. Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Hermine, and from what I can tell they are seeing are winds near hurricane strength or possibly at hurricane strength already. Could we have a stronger Hurricane Hermine at landfall than we thought? It still has until Thursday night to strengthen. EDIT: I found another graphic  that's telling us they are finding some hurricane-strength flight-level winds. It'll be interesting once they've gone through to see the surface winds.  Owen 06:37, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Currently at 65 mph/992 mbars. Hermine could become a minimal cat 1 when it comes ashore in Florida, but as I mentioned before, Florida is the least of our concerns, the NHC does what the Euro and GFS were forecasting late in their forecast period, and expect Hermine to loop offshore the Mid-Atlantic as a powerful, albeit likely non-tropical hurricane. The Euro in particular takes it down to a 970 mbar cat 2 strength storm just offshore; it's still possible it could miss landfall, but it's something to watch out for nonetheless. Ryan1000 12:34, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

Uh, this is 140 miles from the center....we may have Hurricane Hermine.

Time: 16:06:00Z Coordinates: 26.800N 83.900W Acft. Static Air Press: 844.4 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,544 m (5,066 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (29.83 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 179° at 75 kts (From the S at 86.3 mph) Air Temp: 15.7°C (60.3°F) Dew Pt: 15.7°C (60.3°F) '''Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 76 kts (87.5 mph)''' SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:48 kts (55.2 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (0.47 in/hr) Owen 16:31, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Hermine
First time ever Hermine reached hurricane status. Hopefully Florida is ready. Jake52 (talk) 18:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Unless Hermine somehow weakens before landfall, looks like the 11-year hurricane drought in Florida is coming to an end. Hermine is also the first hurricane in the Gulf since Ingrid in 2013. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 19:18, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Even though Florida's hurricane drought is coming to an end with Hermine, the 11-year major hurricane drought still stands, and won't be broken by this thing. Storm surge will be magnified in the big bend of Florida due to the tucked back position of the bay where Hermine is going to hit, but due to Hermine's low intensity, impacts in Florida shouldn't be too severe. Regardless of severity, there will certainly be high winds, heavy rain, and maybe even tornadoes in and around where Hermine makes landfall. The NHC makes it extratropical after leaving North Carolina sometime on Saturday, but they stall it for 2 or 3 days off of the Mid-Atlantic, which would mean a lot of high surf offshore, and Hermine could possibly recurve back west to hit new England later on. If Hermine does that, it may be a repeat of Agnes of 1972. That's not good at all, people in the northeast should be preparing for this thing right now. Ryan1000 21:23, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * In the last few frames of this loop here, it looks like Hermine is intensifying before it reaches the shore. I wouldn't rule out a Category 2, although it's doubtful. Owen 22:40, September 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * What's amazing is that this won't just be the first Florida hurricane landfall I have ever tracked, but this will also be the first Florida hurricane landfall on this entire wiki. Wow... Watch out Florida & the U.S. east coast... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:37, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * New advisory pins Hermine at 80 mph and 983 mbars, but it's just about to make landfall so I'd rule out cat 2 intensity. 85-90 is a possibility in the next advisory, maybe, but nothing more than that. Ryan1000 01:57, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is not looking good... landfall is just hours away. Like others have mentioned, it is the first hurricane landfall in Florida since Wilma 11 years ago. I personally think 80 mph will be its peak and it'll make landfall at that strength. Hopefully flooding and other things don't make Hermine destructive and deadly. I'm also worried about its future moving up the US East Coast. People from Florida and up to New England should all be ready for this storm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:45, September 2, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hermine (2nd time)
Weakened to a tropical storm, though it still made landfall overnight as a hurricane. Ryan1000 09:05, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * The tide- and rain-enhanced flooding is just massive. Lots of trees have been downed, and more than 200 thousand households are out of power. I haven't heard of any tornadoes, but there were a few waterspouts seen offshore earlier. Fortunately there have been no fatalities yet, but this may change as Hermine wrecks the entire East Coast over the next few days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:57, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * Spoke too soon, eh? One fatality from Hermine now, and I'm certain it will rise by looking at the effects of this storm in Florida. T  G  20:09, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC makes Hermine a large and slow-moving, non-tropical "hurricane" off the east coast on Monday, but even though it may remain offshore, it will be big enough to cause a lot of damage due to large waves and strong winds near the mid-Atlantic. A lot of people lost power in Florida and elsewhere as of now, and damage may be in the hundreds of millions, but unlikely billions...for the time being. Ryan1000 21:25, September 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * Interestingly, the GFS model has Hermine turn post-tropical, but eventually has it regain tropical characteristics and become a hurricane once again. NHC also noted in their discussion that it is possible Hermine could go from tropical to post-tropical back to tropical. Interesting trend. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 22:17, September 2, 2016 (UTC)`


 * After being extremely busy, I've finally been able to get back on here after basically a month.
 * And, man, things sure have gotten interesting.
 * Living over here in Florida, near the FL/AL line, I got storms associated with Hermine that dumped some rain. Hermind has, unfortunately, finally broken the 11-year hurricane streak in Florida.  This, along with the fact that Hermine will meander around New England for a couple of days, makes me really uncomfortable. I know I've said it before, but I've really got a bad feeling about this season.... Leeboy100 Hello! 06:40, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Also, according to the 2 AM EDT advisory, Hermine has gone and pulled a 2008 Fay. Winds are back up to 60 mph  while still overland.   Leeboy100 Hello! 06:50, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine
Not exactly dead, but not tropical anymore. It is actually possible that Hermine could regain some tropical characteristics in a few days while it traverses unusually warm waters. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 15:02, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hermine seems to be delivering high gusts of wind for a storm this strength. I am currently watching The Weather Channel (have been most of the night, couldn't sleep) and Mike Seidel (who has been in quite a bit of storms, many stronger than Hermine is now) was just caught off guard and nearly got knocked onto the ground by a high gust of wind on live television, usually that only happens in a stronger tropical storm or cat. 1 (Jim Cantors getting blown around by Katrina while it was hitting Florida for example.) On a more eerie note,  this is giving me flashbacks to Sandy, one can only hope that the destruction in New England won't be similar, as it has already done quite a bit in Florida.  Leeboy100 Hello! 16:50, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hermine has been quite a crazy storm. It's really packed a punch for a weak hurricane! This season is becoming  quite destructive, and one can only hope Hermine stays farther away from land then predicted. We've been tracking the system that became Hermine for a long time now and it's amazing it could exist another week, only this time flooding the coast. Hermine has been an impressive storm, but sadly it's impacts on land are horrible. It's a shame storms like this have to hit land. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 17:28, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Like with Sandy, the NHC is still issuing advisories on Hermine even though it's non-tropical because it still poses a threat to the northeast and is expected to re-intensify to hurricane strength -- while non-tropical -- tomorrow afternoon. However, they're fairly confident that Hermine will remain offshore at this point, but even if it stays offshore Hermine still poses a threat due to its large size and high surf. Ryan1000 23:28, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Over Africa
This isn't up on the TWO yet, but both the GFS and Euro are consistent at developing something near northern Cape Verde about a week from now, and following in Gaston's footsteps. Could be something to keep our eyes on in the long run. Ryan1000 16:26, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * This has a good shot at being Hermine or Ian depending on whether 99L/91L develop. Maybe it will be a hurricane. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am starting to think this will be Hermine - as 99L is the most annoying invest I have ever tracked, and at this point, I am starting to doubt development from that. This could have a shot at development over the next week or so. In the very long run, I hope it does not end up threatening anyone. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:31, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO at 0/30. Unlike Gaston, this wave is expected to take a more westward path, and unlike 99L, it has more model support. Could be interesting down the road... ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 17:48, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * I've checked the latest run of the GFS and Euro and both models take this directly towards the eastern seabord of the U.S. in a week and a half to 2 weeks as a fairly powerful storm. GFS takes this into Savannah as a major hurricane, and the Euro makes it a major hurricane just north of the Bahamas, and likely eventually hitting the east coast. This may be a bad storm down the road...assuming 99L can become Hermine in the GoM, this'll be Ian. Ryan1000 12:57, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 0/60. This is a strong tropical wave already, and looks to become a dangerous storm. 99L might just be the distraction while this system actually becomes "the big one". However, it's still many days out, so that isn't certain. The Atlantic sure is ramping up this year! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:59, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/50, but it's still likely to become something big over the open Atlantic down the road. Assuming TD's 8 and 9 both become Hermine and Ian, this would be Julia instead. Ryan1000 21:26, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is looking quite threatening down the road - we should keep our eyes out. I am really hoping this is no re-Hugo or Isabel like models suggest. Hopefully, it is just a fishspinning hurricane, that maybe even repeats its 2010 predecessor! ;) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:19, August 28, 2016 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
And now it's been invested. Still at 0/50 though, but this is definitely something to watch this and next week. Ryan1000 04:58, August 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * For some odd reason, it's down to 0/40. It could be Julia assuming the two TD's that are taking too long to become named, eventually receive the names "Hermine" and "Ian". This is still something to look out over the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:27, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/30 right now. The wave has dry air in its path to deal with. But it could develop once it reaches the Lesser Antilles by Monday. I hope it doesn't pull a 99L/Hermine and take weeks to develop... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:59, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually it might be better for it to intensify sooner, so it's more likely to go north and then east and not hit land. The GFS and Euro are thoroughly underwhelmed by this system, they don't make it anything at all even after it passes the Lessers. Ryan1000 03:12, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20, but still could become something down the road. I've grouped this with September in the event it forms down the road; if it doesn't we can move it to the August archive. Ryan1000 12:37, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * At 10/20, and not looking likely to develop into much until beyond the 5-day window. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:46, September 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * It is now up to 20/30...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 13:29, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions
(credit to Steve for the colors)
 * Alex - <font color="#669">1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022!
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022.
 * Colin - <font color="#449">5%  - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then.
 * Danielle - <font color="#669">1% - Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022.
 * Earl - 70% - Caused at least 65 total deaths, making it the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy, and Mexico's deadliest storm since Stan. I think Earl deserves to be retired, but it's not definite. At least $100 million in damage. Has a fairly high chance of retirement. It's quite likely he won't return in 2022.
 * Fiona - 0% - Didn't fail quite as badly as originally thought, as she reached 50 mph for a brief time and survived some moderate shear. Nevertheless, she was still a fail. Fiona the Fish Failicia will be back in 2022.

~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions:
(Other users can feel free to use my colors)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

(Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++, A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: Grade: <font color="#094">A+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - In the Azores, it caused a death and minimal damage. It was an amazing early season hurricane and one of the earliest hurricanes on record. Its "being early" achievement alone is deserving of the grade I gave. It still could have been better though, like a major hurricane not affecting land.
 * Bonnie: Grade: D- Retirement: <font color="#449">5%  - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. It was just a weak TS that barely amounted to much, but the fact that it was the second pre-season storm and that it regenerated increases its grade. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.
 * Colin: Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement:  10%  - Colin was the earliest 3rd named storm on record, enough to raise the grade by about a letter. However, it was really disorganized. 4 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement.
 * Danielle: Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1%  - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. It was also the earliest 4th named storm on record, enough to raise the grade a little.
 * Earl: Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#F70">75%  - Gets credit for being a hurricane and especially for restrengthening over the BOC, but the damage and deaths it caused is enough to lower the grade a little. 65 deaths and at least $115.5 million dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This storm has a high shot at retirement due to the destruction and deadly floods and mudslides that it caused throughout Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, as well as the deaths it caused as a tropical wave. It was the deadliest storm to strike Mexico since Stan in 2005, and the deadliest storm overall in the Atlantic since Sandy. If Stan was retired, this likely will be too. I doubt Earl will still be around in 2022.
 * Fiona: Grade:  D-  Retirement:  0%  - A storm that tried and fought the dry air well, But it was weak so I cannot give it any higher than a D-.

Raindrop's Retirements
(Retirement colors:   0% , <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% ,  10% , <font color="#049">15% ,  20% , <font color="#094">25% ,  30% , <font color="#390">35% ,  40% , <font color="#CF0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% ,  70% , <font color="#F70">75% ,  80% , <font color="#F20">85% ,  90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022.
 * Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: <font color="#669">2% - 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though.
 * Danielle: <font color="#669">1% - Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed.
 * Earl: <font color="#CF0">45%  - Wow, Earl really had a big impact for a category 1 hurricane! The flooding turned out to be extensive and the death toll is over 60 now. This means Earl definitely has a shot at retirement. Due to the NHC being conservative about retiring names and the fact that current damage totals are not too extensive yet, I'm keeping the odds of retirement worse than even, but Earl has caused major disruption to an entire country and this may need to be raised later.
 * Fiona:  0%  - Fiona was a weak storm, but it fought! Fiona tried her best through days of strong shear, but eventually lost the battle. However, Fiona's ghost still wanted to haunt us and contributed to the formation of TD8. Fiona was actually a pretty fun storm to track, and for the first time this year, it only spun fish.
 * Gaston:  0%  - Our first major hurricane of the season, Gaston, has put on an impressive show while never threatening any land! Gaston looked pretty bad during the period of high shear, but once that was gone, Gaston did not dissapoint! The only land Gaston may affect is the Azores. but it's likely to be weaker there and shouldn't do much, considering Alex did practically nothing there.

Puffle's retirement predictions
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)


 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Alex : <font color="#669">1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bonnie : <font color="#449">5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. T  G  20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Colin : 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022.  T G  12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danielle : <font color="#449">5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm.   T G  17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Earl : <font color="#F70">75% - If Stan was retired, I bet this will go too. Not only did it wreak havoc in Central American countries like Belize and Mexico, but it badly damaged one of Belize's most valuable products, crops. Also, Earl was the deadliest Mexican hurricane since Stan in 2005.  T G  17:38, August 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Fiona : 0% - Finally, a break from casualties, but Fiona was a very disappointing storm, much like its 2010 predecessor. T  G  22:01, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Gaston : <font color="#669">1% - Gaston didn't do anything in the Azores, but he gets a 1% chance for affecting the area. Gaston might be my favorite looking Atlantic storm.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Hermine : <font color="#094">25% - Hermine caused schools to close for a couple days across the state of Florida. Hermine also produced severe damage and one fatality in Florida. The damage was equally as bad in Georgia and The Carolinas.  T G  20:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

Leeboy's retirements.
Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1.1%-   Early  and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% isn't due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased.
 * Bonnie-<font color="#449">5%: My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement.
 * Colin- 10%:  Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly.

Leeboy100 Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle-  <font color="#449">5%:  Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death.
 * Earl:  50%:  Wow, I did not expect it to be this bad, this actually has a fair chance of retirement.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5.
 * 1) Alex: grade A, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022.
 * 2) Bonnie: grade C, retirement 10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low.
 * 3) Colin: grade C, retirement 15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C.
 * 4) Danielle: grade D, retirement 5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality.
 * 5) Earl: grade B, retirement 60%. Nice start to August after an absolutely horrible July, but there have been 65 deaths and 12 people are still missing, making Earl the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy. The damage total is at least US$115 million and continues to have potential to rise. However as the NHC is conservative and damage is more of extensive rather than severe, I won't give anything above 70% for retirement unless further updates warrant that.
 * 6) Fiona: E, retirement 0%. First storm that hasn't affected land. Unfortunately it was weak.
 * 7) Gaston: currently active, retirement 5%. Still affecting the Azores.
 * 8) Hermine: currently active, retirement 30% looking at what's happened so far. This will likely change with further updates.

~ KN2731 {talk} 13:07, September 2, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
We have enough storms by now for me to start: There you have it...for now. Ryan1000 21:08, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 1% - Killed a person and caused a little damage in the Azores, on top of being a very rare January hurricane. Not negligible, but not enough for retirement either.
 * Bonnie - 2% - Killed two people and caused some damage in South Carolina from floods, on top of being the second pre-season storm in an Atlantic season in only 4 years. Still not enough for retirement though.
 * Colin - 4% - Earliest 3rd storm and was a little deadlier than Bonnie and Alex, but still rather minor overall.
 * Danielle - 1% - Earliest 4th storm, but Danielle only caused minor impacts in Mexico and probably won't get retired.
 * Earl - 65% - The death toll has been upped to more than 60, mostly in Mexico, and there was at least 110 million in damage (in Belize alone) from Earl, which is rather extensive, though not catastrophic. If the final damage totals turn out to be what I fear they could be (around 1+ billion), then this is probably a guaranteed retirement. It was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Not a complete fail but was a fishspinner nonetheless, so no
 * Gaston - 1% - Assuming Gaston passes over the western Azores as a tropical storm (like it's currently forecast) it will have impact there and get some credit. Otherwise though, it wasn't much.
 * Hermine - ?? - I doubt Hermine will do enough damage in Florida alone to be retired, but the forecast after it passes North Carolina and stalls off the Mid-Atlantic is worrisome...if it curves back west towards a landfall after that, it might actually be something retirement-worthy. We'll see.

iBahan1829's List Of Retirement Candidates
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:50, August 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) Category 1 Alex: 0.1%: Barely any damage to the Azores. So, Alex will return in 2022.
 * 2) Tropical Storm Bonnie: 0.1%: Like Alex, Bonnie did barely any damage to any land. Regeneration was neat, but this storm ended up weak anyway.
 * 3) Tropical Storm Colin: 1%: Actually did something. Flooded multiple Florida cities and that's pretty much all it did. Debby was worse, but it still wasn't retired. Colin will stay for 2022.
 * 4) Tropical Storm Danielle: 0.1%: Repeat of Alex and Bonnie. Next!
 * 5) Category 1 Earl: 55%: Okay, now we're talking. ~60 deaths!? Holy cow! Bad Earl! On top of that, it caused havoc in Belize! This might actually get retired.
 * 6) Tropical Storm Fiona: 0%: Fiona is equal to fish, so I might as well give this a 0%.
 * 7) Category 3 Gaston: 2%: Could be the second tropical storm this year to impact the Azores, so that 2% is what I predict.
 * 8) Category 1 Hermine: 40-50%: This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact FLORIDA, and the first hurricane to impact Florida period since Wilma of October 2005 . So, good luck, Florida. Oh, and by the way, Florida is the 20%, the other 20-30% is the U.S. east coast and New England...

Allan´s retirement Predictions
1. Alex 0.1%  Even though it was a really good surprise, and had an indirect death,its nothing for it to be retire from the list. So we will see him again in 2022.

2. Bonnie 0.1% She was a fighter not going to doubt it, She even came back from death but its impact in the states were minimal at most. She just tickle some states. The 2 deads will not make the states ask for her, so Sayonara until 2022.

3,Colin 0.1% Damages were even less than Bonnie but he produce double of deads. That .1% its just becausse it affect land because imo it merits a zero.

4. Danielle 0.1% Weakest storm so far in 2016 and it just produce 1 death. Her effects on Mexico were minimal and at most they were overshadow by Earl later on. So see you in 2022 beotch.

5. Earl 65% the real deal of the season so far. His damages in Belize are compare to those of Iris in 2001 it has already produce 100,000 dollars in damage and its not final tally in that country. Earl big chance of retirement comes from its effects in Mexico where it has 52 deads so far and its describe as the worst storm in Puebla´s history. It produce damages to other states too. With the death toll in a country that prides itself from being prepare to this types of disasters it was a hard hit for Mexico´s ego. Imo they will not condone this one to be staying. I am not counting the DR because the fatalities were when Earl was disturbance and not a storm as such it might not count  for choice in retirement. Allanjeffs 20:36, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Isaac's prediction
0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%. -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:18, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 0% - Little damage to Azores.
 * Bonnie - 0% - Less than $1 million in damage.
 * Colin - 0% - Minimal damage.
 * Danielle - 0% - Little damage.
 * Earl - 50% - Over $100 million in damage and 67 deaths, a good possibility.
 * Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Gaston - ?

Post-Season Changes
I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC)

Replacement names
Earl is looking to be a surprisingly good candidate for retirement at this point, given the rather high death toll in Mexico and damage in Belize, despite its low intensity. So...if Earl does get retired, what do you think it should be replaced by? Some of my suggestions are here:
 * Edvin
 * Edgar
 * Elan
 * Eli(e)
 * Elvin
 * Emmett
 * Emile
 * Elliot
 * Elric
 * Evan
 * Ethan
 * Elwin
 * Elwood
 * Elson

Like with Joaquin last year, there are a lot of good "E" names available to replace Earl given that 1) relatively few "E" names have been retired, and 2) none of the "E" retirees we have had were male names. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd go with either Edgar or Evan. T  G  10:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * My vote goes to Elliott, spelled the same way as Elliott Smith. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Edgar and Elvis would be some good replacements. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Mexico's track record might mean this could have a lower shot of retirement (especially since they snubbed storms such as Alex and Karl), but I personally think it has a pretty good shot at getting retired, since it was the deadliest hurricane since Sandy and caused at least $100 million in damage (in Belize alone). Once Mexico damage tolls come out, I won't be surprised if the toll skyrockets past $1 billion. My favorite replacement names out of Ryan's list are Edgar, Elliot, Evan, and Ethan. I also suggest Emmanuel, and as Bob said above, Elvis (a storm named after Elvis Presley would be epic!). <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't really like having the name "Elvis" on the lists because of "Hurricane Elvis" in 2003, which was a deadly derecho that struck Memphis with 100 mph winds. T  G  10:56, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Steve, The thing is that I think Mexico didnt retired Karl because it didnt caused a lot of deads like Earl has done. Its now being said in the news that this have been the worst storm on record for Puebla in terrms of death toll. Maybe the damage of Karl was extensive but I am pretty sure many Mexicans do not remember him because the death toll was low and most damage was concentrated in Veracruz. Meanwhile Earl have caused trouble in Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Queretaro and Hidalgo to mention some. Being Mexico the most affected of the countries in the path of Earl I believe its replacement will be in Spanish so Elias, Efrain,Emanuel or Edgar are good candidates for replacement. If Belize is the one to request it for retirement the name might be one usually use in English. Allanjeffs 17:58, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Here are some more "E" names: Andros 1337 (talk) 21:11, August 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Edwin
 * Elmo
 * Emilio
 * Enrico
 * Enzo
 * Emanuel
 * Emanuele
 * Evaristo
 * Evandro
 * Edison
 * Edmond
 * Elton
 * Emery
 * Eustace


 * I would really hate seeing Emanuel on the list due to confusion with the very similar name, Manuel. T  G  11:00, August 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I was going to mention that too, I doubt Em(m)anuel will be chosen to replace Earl, especially since the country most affected by Earl (Mexico) retired Manuel just 3 years ago. My favorite choice would be Evan, but if Mexico submits Spanish names then Esteban would be my pick. Emilio and Enrico are also possible but they could be confused with Emilia (the female version of the name, and scheduled for the 2018 EPac season) and Enrique (used last year in the EPac). Ryan1000 04:47, August 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * With Joaquin last year, we've seen that replacement names don't have to match the country or the language of the retired name. Edwin or Edvin, Edgar, Edison or Elvis sound more likely from the NHC. Unless the NHC decides to continue with names of popular movie/TV characters and goes with Elmo. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:14, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it's not a universal rule of thumb (Felix '07 hit Nicaragua hard, a Spanish-speaking country, but they chose Fernand, the French version of Fernando, to replace him), but it's usually more likely for said affected country to submit names of their language, and the WMO usually picks the first of the 3-4 names that are submitted to them for replacement. Ryan1000 03:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)