Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season

AOI: South of Baja/500 miles south of Acapulco
New AOI, 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:59, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * will dis faka form? nah --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:28, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

And it's gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:54, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

Another AOI, I guess? Currently 10/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:54, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Same AOI as the above, actually. If you check out the archives, both the 0/20 system and this one were low pressure areas several hundred miles south of Acapulco. Due to time proximity, they just can't be separate systems at all. Perhaps you got confused because of the sudden jump in percentage? Also invested, 20/60, and will most likely become Norman. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:08, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope I just got confused. I hope the AOI south of Baja just moved eastwards to become 500 miles south of Acapulco. Anyway, Norman may come out of this one, as it is now 40/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:06, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * New update: 60/90. It is now almost certain that Norman will form before this month ends. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:07, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * norman gonna bust out mariam big time, much like jake paul did to deji --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 13:28, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

If we get Norman from this before the month ends, we'll have a 6-storm August. Not bad for the EPac (the record is 8 in 2009, which was also an El Nino year). Ryan1000 17:48, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * This would actually make 7 August storms; 10E formed on the last day of July, but became Hector on the first day of August. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:56, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

I was only counting named storms forming in the month in that statement, so I wasn't counting Hector since he technically formed at the end of July. But if you count him, that would be second to 2009 for the most storms in August (or any month, for that matter) in one season (although it would tie the record for the EPac proper, since one of the storms in August 2009 (Maka) formed in the CPac). Ryan1000 03:59, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:18, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * 90E at 90/90. Please form now... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:53, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one should hopefully be Norman. Models take this to a hurricane as well.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:51, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E
Now a tropical depression 35/1004, and also forecast to be Hurricane Norman in the coming days. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     14:57, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's expected to turn south late in the forecast period though, so this could be another long-term threat to Hawaii, unless it turns north like Miriam is expected to. Ryan1000 15:36, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to reach at least 100 mph. Norman is here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:19, August 28, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Norman
Now officially named Norman by the NHC and forecasted to become a major hurricane on the long run. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     03:03, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * The southward turn late in the forecast period is concerning for Hawaii down the road...while the GFS keeps this out at sea, the Euro (which forecasted Lane's track correctly) now takes Norman on a collision course with the Big Island in ten days...as a 984 mbar category 1 or 2 hurricane. It's still a long ways out but it could be something to watch out for. Ryan1000 05:01, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * This could be problematic for Hawaii in the distant long run... here comes yet another storm threatening them. Norman should be our next C4+, and I maybe won't even be surprised if it can pull off C5. I can't believe the EPac is already at the "N" storm...and August is not even over yet! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a 65 kt/987 mbar hurricane according to Tropical Tidbits, though it won't be official until the next advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:12, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Norman
Same time as Miriam, this got upgraded to a hurricane, but more intense than Miriam at 75/987. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:02, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 85/983, and forecast peak is up to 130 mph now, in only 36 hours. Ryan1000 03:02, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * ATCF brings Norman all the way up to a strong Cat 2. Major on the next advisory I think. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:17, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Norman
Now up to 115 mph/964 mb. Glad that Norm didn't pull a Fabio. Send Help Please (talk) 10:21, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well this makes up for the fail Norman in 2012. Let's see if he runs for Cat 4. - VileMaster (talk) 11:23, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Special 5:30 AM update statement says it is, 145 mph and 942 mbars. Norman is absolutely exploding right now, and is forecast to hit 155 mph as we speak, but category 5 intensity is definitely not out of the question. Ryan1000 12:43, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * With that grey ring Norman already looks like a C5. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:08, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

8 AM PDT Advisory puts it at 150mph and 937mb. C5 is now in the forecast for 5 PM PDT. Nickcoro (talk) 14:58, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Dang, Norman is intensifying so fast that I'm barely able to get in an "I believe in you Norm!" message out before he hits C5. Send Help Please  (talk) 17:07, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Norman is now forecast to reach 160 mph in 12 hours. We may – or should I say, we will definitely – have two Category 5 hurricanes this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:47, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Same intensity as of latest advisory, and honestly, looking at the latest infrared imagery, I'm not all that surprised. I do think he's still got a shot at C5 (though he might have briefly been one in between advisories) before he succumbs to an ERC, but that window of opportunity will not last long. Also, on an unrelated note, Lane has unfortunately been confirmed to have killed one person as they found the body of a man who had drowned in a flooded stream on Wednesday. Send Help Please (talk) 20:59, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * That is sad news. 😢 Hopefully Lane's death toll doesn't continue to rise... Back to Norman, it's unbelievable that we've got a 150 mph C4 on our hands already. This thing RI'd fast. Unfortunately, it's becoming less likely we will see a C5 as time goes on (unless it actually somehow was one earlier but NHC didn't notice). Norman's intensity has leveled off and it will encounter progressively unfavorable conditions from here on out. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:46, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

The Euro has also backed off on that projection I mentioned from TropicalTidbits before and now takes Norman north of Hawaii like the GFS first forecasted, hopefully that's the case down the road. Ryan1000 04:47, August 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, Norm has leveled off. Down to 140 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:07, August 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * It seems Norman has slipped, and now he's not becoming a cat 5. Down to 130 mph/950 mbars as of the latest advisory. Conditions aren't that unfavorable, but Norman is apparently undergoing an ERC as we speak, expanding his windfield but weakening his maximum winds. Ryan1000 16:00, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Norman is now down to a high-end Category 3. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:58, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Norman (2nd time)
Down to high-end C2. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:26, September 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * Slightly off-topic, but the NHC released their monthly report for August in the Eastern Pacific, and with 7 named storms, it ties the monthly August record in the EPac proper. August of 1974, 2009, and July of 1985 and 2016 also had 7 storms in the EPac proper, although August of 2009 had 8 total storms if you count the CPac. Also, because of the fact we had two hurricanes with an ACE of over 40 each in August, the total ACE for the EPac and CPac last August was a whopping 130.405 units, which is the highest ACE for any single month on record in the Pacific east of the dateline and it's also higher than the ACE produced in the entire years of every Pacific hurricane season from 2007-2013. That's incredible. Basically it can be considered the EPac's version of September 2017 in the Atlantic by ACE. Ryan1000 14:43, September 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * Woah, blame Hector and Lane for that ACE. If this activity keeps up, the EPac could reach the X, Y, and Z names or even run the table! Norman has actually become a bit better organized, and it might be possible that it restrengthens a bit in the next day or so. After that, it'll gradually weaken from here on out. It seems like it will pass north of Hawaii and be weak and dissipating when it does so. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:01, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Norman (2nd time)
Norm is BACK! 130 mph/948 mb as of latest advisory! Send Help Please (talk) 16:55, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * I expected some reintensification as it was entering a slightly more favorable environment, but not this much! After this secondary peak, Norman should finally gradually die down from here on out. The EPac has fed us another amazing powerful fishspinner. 😊 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:22, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Norman (3rd time)
Back down to cat 2, 110 mph and 967 mbars. Ryan1000 16:02, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Weakened to C1 intensity, 90 mph/979 mbars. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:41, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Norman (3rd time)
Back up to 115/962.Norman is a strange,strange hurricane... No.1 Mobile (talk) 15:12, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * 🎶I get knocked down, but I get up again... you're never gonna keep me down!!🎵
 * This is turning out to be yet another resilient, long-tracked EPAC major a la Hector and Lane. Maybe they'll be joined by Olivia down the road? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Don't think Norm knows the definition of the phrase "Give up"! This is a display of resilience only bested by the likes of Genevieve. Send Help Please  (talk) 17:08, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Norm is pretty much becoming the Genevieve of major hurricanes. It’s not likely, but watch him come full circle and become a Category 5, like Genevieve did. :P Leeboy100 Hello! 17:35, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 120 mph/956 mb. If Norm somehow hits Cat. 4 again, I will freak out. Even if he doesn't, he'll an impressive storm among a year of impressive storms. Send Help Please (talk) 03:01, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wtf? I thought Norman was on a gradual weakening trend... I guess it might have hit another pocket of conducive conditions. It's entering an increasing shear environment, which should probably halt any further strengthening. Considering all the surprises we've been seeing (like with Florence), the key word is probably. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:35, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Intensity kept at 105 knots. Thankfully Norman is turning away from the Hawaiian Islands now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:34, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Norman (4th time)
Back down to cat 2, 100/970 as of the latest advisory. Ryan1000 03:40, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * It should finally be weakening for good now. But considering this is 2018, what if it somehow reintensifies again? 😜 Just joking... shear is getting the best of the system now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:09, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Norman (2nd time)
Now down to a TS, and this should be weakening for real now. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:07, September 07, 2018 (UTC)


 * Some unexpected recon in Norman at the moment, en route to Hawaii for Olivia. They found flight level winds of 80 kt and SFMR values between 60-65 kt. Kiewii 21:44, September 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Intensity maintained at 60 knots, and winds at previous advisory were recognised by CPHC to be slightly too conservative. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:07, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Norman
The CPHC has issued its final advisory on Norman as it goes into extratropical transition. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     03:46, September 09, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Baja II
Oh, another 0/20 AOI, this time overlapping with 90E (which is now at 90/90). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:53, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not too sure if this can be anything due to its proximity to 90E. It could be absorbed, but otherwise, not sure.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:51, August 27, 2018 (UTC)


 * The EPac conveyor doesn't stop! This AOI is at 0/30 now. I don't think this will be affected much by 90E; it's not on the 2-day GTWO yet, which means it will probably form after 90E develops and moves out of the area. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:37, August 28, 2018 (UTC)

What else could you expect from a strong El Nino event? For some perspective, if this becomes Olivia before September 10, it would form before Odile of 2014 and then be the earliest "O" named storm in the East Pacific Proper since 1992's Orlene, which formed in August not long before Iniki. At this rate, it's very possible we could reach the X, Y, and Z names on the list. 2015 would've also done that if the CPac didn't steal all the waves and get its most active season. Ryan1000 04:47, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * The EPac is astonishingly active this year! El Nino must be to blame. I also won't be that surprised at this point to see the EPac reach the "X" name, and even exhausting the list is a slight possibility! This system is 0/40 BTW. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:53, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Was at 0/50 before, and now at 10/60.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:23, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Seems like a potential candidate for Olivia. But let me ask, STRONG el nino? Keep in mind we're not even in el nino yet. I wouldn't make premature statements. Regardless, models make this a moderate tropical storm in the long run. - VileMaster (talk) 20:05, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Well, ok, maybe not super like 2015-16, but @Vilemaster: we have a better than even likelihood of seeing an El Nino this fall and winter season (I believe NOAA recently predicted a 60-70% chance of that), if we haven't already met the threshold. There are pockets of above-normal SST's near South America that may be showing this transition, not to mention the fairly high level of TC activity we've seen so far in the North Pacific. As for the Atlantic, unless the AOI over Africa becomes Florence by Friday, 2018 will be the least active August in the Atlantic since 1997, which had no storms in the month. Yeah we had two July hurricanes, but they weren't very strong or long-lived, and the ACE so far is below average for this time of year in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 21:09, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/70. Just like the Atlantic AOI, I wonder why this hasn't been invested yet.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:57, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Still not invested, but now at 40/80.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:10, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Finally now an invest. This should be Olivia in a few days. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:02, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80, and Olivia should be coming in the next few days. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:48, August 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * 60/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:31, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Code red. 70/90, Olivia is coming... Ryan1000 16:02, August 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/90 now. She is almost here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:57, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seventeen-E
Now a TD, right before the next month begins. Send Help Please (talk) 02:51, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still a TD, it's not in a hurry to intensify. Should be Olivia by tomorrow though, and expected to peak as a C2. NHC notes this forecast is at the upper bound of the guidance envelope for the long-range forecast. Hopefully it could still become a major, and it's not a 110 mph failicia like another certain storm (I'm looking at you Fabio). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:05, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olivia
Now it's named Olivia. Currently at 45 mph and 1002 mbars. Forecast to become a hurricane (which would be the first time a storm named Olivia did so since 1994). Ryan1000 11:22, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally, she's here. Hope Olivia can somehow become a major since she is expected to become a fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:31, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * A major not looking too likely at this point. NHC peak intensity has been lowered to 75 mph as Olivia remains sheared. Don't disappoint us Olivia... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:25, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sadly, even hurricane strength isn't in the forecast currently, with a predicted peak of only 55 kts :( fortunately, though, Olivia is up to 50 kts according to Tropical Tidbits. I'm hoping Olivia gets fairly strong - it's quite possibly my favorite name on this year's EPAC list, plus amongst the likes of Hector, Lane, and Norman, we haven't had an EPAC major bear a female name since Aletta. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:11, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aaaaaaand... 55 kts/994 mbar per the new forecast/advisory, with a revised forecast peak of 70 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:42, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Olivia
Latest advisory makes it a hurricane, and it's really making a comeback. NHC forecast nudged upward to 100 mph. Maybe a major is possible after all? ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:40, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Olivia used to be one of the luckiest names in the Eastern Pacific; all of her first 6 incarnations (1967, 1971, 1975, 1978, 1982, and 1994) became hurricanes, and all of them except the 1978 Olivia became majors, and the 1994 storm among those was the strongest September hurricane and non-cat 5 at the time, while the 1967 and 1975 storms did considerable damage to parts of Mexico. But Olivia had a run of unluck in 2000, 2006, and 2012, with all 3 of those incarnations becoming fishspinner tropical storms. This is a return to Olivia's former intensity fame, I suppose, with Olivia's sattelite appearance improving considerably over the past 12 hours. It's very possible Olivia could become a major hurricane, though it will follow in Norman's footsteps and out to sea down the road. Ryan1000 05:28, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * EP, 17, 2018090412,, BEST, 0, 170N, 1177W, 90, 971, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLIVIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, ...... Is Olivia exploding now? -- Java Hurricane  14:39, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

UPDATE - NHC has confirmed 90 kt, estimates 100 kt peak at 12H.  Java Hurricane  14:43, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Olivia
Currently 105kt/959 mbar.This season should easily break 200 ACE this year. No.1 Mobile (talk) 20:53, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * And Olivia is redeeming herself from the weak streak she had in the past 3 seasons. Wow, I won't be surprised if Olivia manages to reach Category 4 status when the next advisory comes out. I am somehow hoping that Olivia reaches Category 5 too, but that is already a very long shot. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:59, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:35, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Olivia (2nd time)
Peaked at 110 kts/955 mbar last night but is now down to 95 kts/967 mbar. No.1 Mobile, at this rate, we'll probably crack 200 ACE in less than a week from now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:59, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Olivia continues to weaken. Down to 100 mph. Olivia still looks amazing from space though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:48, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * That was another shocker. I can't believe we got a major from this! I remember when shear was affecting Olivia, bringing our hopes down, before it began RI. This EPac season is amazing, I swear. What's next, a C5 Paul? Olivia should gradually weaken from here on out, unless we get another surprise (which would be 2018 for ya). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:40, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 90 knots and 970 mb. Olivia sure isn't giving up, and may even become an annular hurricane. Also I don't think we don't have to wait a week for 200 ACE, we'll likely be reaching there by the end of this week – ACE is already over 196.5 units. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:39, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Olivia (2nd time)
And just like Norman, Olivia won't give in that easily. Back up to category 3 intensity, 120 mph and 959 mbars. However, Olivia is expected to turn south later in her forecast period, unlike Norman, so Olivia could hit Hawaii as a tropical storm from the north if that happens... Ryan1000 12:23, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * The models are pretty tightly clustered until 120 hours. Afterwards things get messy, with a variety of paths over Maui, Oahu, Kauai, more than one of those, or just north and out to sea. In any case, Hawaii should keep a wary eye on Olivia.
 * On a separate note, due to Olivia and Norman's resilience ACE is at 198.6 units, so we're hitting 200 at the next advisory cycle unless both rapidly weaken, which isn't looking likely. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:56, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Olivia is quickly becoming annular,so she may last quite a bit longer.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:10, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's official, this season has hit 201 units. And it isn't done yet. Send Help Please  (talk) 21:00, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Welp, Olivia's a cat 4 now, 130 mph and 948 mbars. Unfortunately, the late forecast period now keeps Olivia as a hurricane nearing Hawaii...if she attacks Hawaii from the north as a hurricane, Olivia could be even worse than Lane was. Hopefully she weakens considerably before then. Ryan1000 03:13, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * These storms keep pulling off surprises. I'm very surprised this reached a new peak intensity! And yes, I'm getting concerned for Hawaii atm. If Olivia follows that trajectory forecasted by the NHC, it will hit Hawaii as a strong tropical storm (if it continues weakening after the 5-day point). Since it might only be a tropical storm when it arrives (unless it keeps stubbornly retaining intensity), I doubt it will be like Lane. But we never know about the very long term... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:07, September 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also, another thing that should be noted is, regarding ACE, 7 of the top 10 highest ACE seasons in the Pacific east of the dateline have their totals between 192 and 207 (similar as to how a lot of the Atlantic's top 10 ACE seasons are clustered in the 220's). With this new advisory, 2018 is up to 200.7375 ACE units, only narrowly behind 1993 (201), 1983 (203), and 1978 (207). If Olivia can maintain her annular-like structure and intensity for the next few days while Norman hangs on and Paul is coming up, we'll be ahead of 1978 by next week, and only be behind 1990 (250), 2015 (286) and 1992 (295) by ACE. However, this is the highest ACE total in the Pacific east of the dateline for this time of year ever recorded. At this time in 1990, that season had only 127.33 ACE units, at this time in 1992 that season had about 192 ACE units (though it would quickly increase in the coming days from Orlene and Iniki), and at this time in 2015 that season had about 189 ACE units. If 2018 can rack up another 100 units through the rest of September and October, 1992's ACE record will fall at the hands of 2018. Ryan1000 04:08, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * The 2018 season still has a couple of months left. Woah, I won't even be surprised if it surpasses 1992 by the end to become the most intense EPac season ever. The basin seems conducive for more majors to form. We might even get to the X, Y, and Z names. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:13, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Olivia (3rd time)
Now down to a C2 (again) and now it should weaken before going over Hawaii as a tropical storm. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:08, September 07, 2018 (UTC)


 * Olivia is now forecast to move between Maui and the Big Island as a TS, and is apparently one of only two storms to attack Hawaii from the north, the other being Irah in 1963, which did so as a depression. Olivia's large size could enable heavy flooding on the islands, so it could possibly be a retirement candidate too, like Lane. Ryan1000 22:35, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hopefully Hawaii makes it through okay. This is quite a rare event for them... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:56, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Olivia will affect Hawaii a few days before Florence and Mangkhut... this is not looking good at all. It is good that Olivia would be a TS once it passes through Maui and Big Island, but these two areas are still recovering from Lane. Hopefully Olivia is not a wet storm like Lane, but given that she will be a TS... I don't know anymore. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Olivia is moving faster than Lane so flooding won't be as prolonged as Lane's record rainfall was, but flooding could be locally heavier on Maui, since most of the TS force winds and convection will be north of Olivia's circulation, and the worst of Lane's flooding was on the Big Island near Hilo, and not as much on Maui. Olivia could be a potentially dangerous threat to Maui...Lane's outer rainbands are blamed for at least 200 million dollars in damage on the Big Island (100 million in insured losses) according to Aon Benfield, a reliable insurance broker, which was worse than Iselle in 2014 (see the blog post from Dr. Masters that I linked in my retirement predictions below). If Lane could do that much damage without even making landfall on the islands, Olivia could be even worse if she actually makes a landfall on Maui. Ryan1000 14:01, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olivia (2nd time)
Down to a TS, 70 mph and 991 mbars, but Olivia is forecast to strike Maui directly now, albeit as a weaker TS. Flooding could be locally heavy with this storm, and there could be some wind damage too. Ryan1000 01:12, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

September
Will add this section now, since it's only a day away. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:57, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Behind Seventeen-E
And yet another wave forms. 0/20, and will likely become Paul in the wake of 17E becoming Olivia. This year's Pacific hurricane season is on fire, and it's not showing any signs of slowing down anytime soon. Ryan1000 17:10, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * The conveyor belt keeps on rolling. Paul could arrive after the middle of next week with this system! At this rate, we will see one of the EPac's most active seasons on record... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:08, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30. The EPac can't stop and won't stop. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:46, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Or maybe it will pause for a while. Down to 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:05, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm not going to call it dead until it's down to 0/0. Give it some time, maybe we'll see it eventually become Paul and continue the conveyor belt of storms. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:27, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

0/10 now. This will take time, I guess. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:02, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Jumped right back up to 0/20.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:22, September 03, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 0/30, told you it needed more time. Here comes possible Paul! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:59, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

And it is now 20/50. Paul is coming... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:49, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * 30/60, Paul is on the way. Ryan1000 03:19, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Still 30/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:28, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Like always, conditions appear quite conducive for development. Another major, anyone? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:42, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/70. C4 Paul sounds great provided it stays out to sea and doesn't follow Olivia near Hawaii. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:58, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I agree, I'm getting sick of storms threatening Hawaii. Now up to 50/80, and we could see another big one. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:16, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:08, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * 90/90, will most likely be a depression when I wake up tomorrow morning. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:49, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E
Finally upgraded to a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paul
Expected to remain at sea and peak as a TS, but who knows... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:18, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, this is probably a waste of a name. NHC doesn't take it past its current intensity, and gradually weakens it. However, hopefully it pulls a surprise on us. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * So much for a surprise. Peaked at 45 mph, and is now weakening. I had a feeling this active trend would end soon. - VileMaster (talk)
 * Guess there had to be a random flop to balance out all of the epic storms we've been getting from this basin. Send Help Please  (talk) 20:18, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paul
And he's dying. Boo, Paul. Boooo. Send Help Please (talk) 03:06, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm 96C
Random, new invest near Alaska according to Tropical Tidbits. Kinda weird that this got invested before the AOI behind Olivia. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:34, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Slight spot of controversy elsewhere on this storm. Apparently, 96C is linked to Lane, but the issue is whether it IS Lane or whether Lane got absorbed and the system that absorbed Lane is 96C. CPHC seems to take the latter stance but from what I've heard, you can clearly trace Lane's path from when it dissipated to this point. So far, CPHC doesn't mention it in their outlooks.


 * The part I find interesting is that, if this is Lane, it places it alongside Hurricane 12 (the 75 freak hurricane) and re-Fausto 02. Both of those storms formed from remains of an EPac hurricane (Ilsa in 12's case), both formed at high latitude (about 40N), and both formed at around the same time (which, funny enough is end of August into September...just like here). One went unnamed, one kept its name. Will we have one get a name change to complete the set? Jake52 (talk) 12:10, September 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * The best track lists it as a subtropical storm and has been for the last 18 hours. ASCAT data, however, shows 96C is a tropical cyclone plus SAB are issuing tropical classifications on it. Kiewii 12:22, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * The heck is this? It's so far north that I don't even know how it could acquire even subtropical characteristics. This is a strange system... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:29, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: 1400 SSW of Lihue, Hawaii
This wave on the CPHC outlook currently at 0/0. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:31, September 02, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not going to develop anyways. The excruciating wait for Walaka continues on... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:30, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Send Help Please (talk) 17:57, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I would agree but maybe – just maybe – this AOI and Invest 99W in the WPac are the same. Not sure yet with that though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:50, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Seven storms have formed and we might as well add this section now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:16, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's EastPac and CPac retirement expectations

 * Aletta - 4% - A fishspinner but showed us how to start a season. 4% because it peaked as a C4.
 * Bud - 4% - Also 4% because of its Category 4 status. Great follow-up to Aletta, but juat like Bud's predecessor, it caused no effects to land, so that won't merit any realistic chance of retirement for Bud too.
 * Carlotta - 5% - Affected Mexico and caused some problems, but no fatalities were recorded so I think Carlotta will be back in 2024.
 * Daniel - 0% - Danfail it is, as Send Help Please called it. Broke the streak of strong hurricanes that bore the same name. Yikes.
 * Emilia - 0% - Another forgettable storm.
 * Fabio - 2% - For peaking as a Category 2. Forecast to become a major, yet Fabio bottled it a la Hilary 2017.
 * Gilma - 0% - Just like what Send Help Please also said, Failma. The Failicia of this season along with Danfail, so far.
 * Hector - 4.5% - Remained at the south of Hawaii, crossed the 3 Pacific basins, but a fishspinner. Hector will be back in 2024, but this storm will always be remembered for its longevity, and for almost reaching Category 5 status.
 * Ileana - 0.5% - No, just no. That .5 is for being a strong TS, but realistically, Ileana will be back in 2024.
 * John - 2% - Almost became a major, but did not cause significant impacts.
 * Kristy - 0.75% - For almost reaching hurricane status.
 * Lane - TBD - Became the first CPac C5 since Ioke, but this is not looking good for Hawaii, so far.

That's it.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:16, July 31, 2018 (UTC). Last revised by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:43, August 22, 2018 (UTC).

joestar's OAP home preddies
yare yare daze (talk) 17:39, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta (0%): "haha look at me i believe i can fly i believe i can touch the sky no motherf-cker can match me ahahahaha" grade: A
 * Bud (0%): "haha i'm gonna beat you! all years before 2006 sucked! now i'm finally a cat 4! i made landfall unlike that dutch twit aletta who is a coward!" grade: A-
 * Carlotta (0%):  "mummy i wanna go to mexico like patwicia" grade: E
 * Daniel (0%): "zzzzzz... damn... zzzzzzz" grade: F
 * Emilia (0%): "all 1994 cat 5s for sh-t tropical storms in 2018" grade: F
 * Fabio (0%): "i am trying to eat more to be a category 5 but i'm not gaining any weight" grade: C
 * Gilma (0%): "SMOKE SHEAR EVERYDAY!" EVERYDAY!" rip in kill 3sexy5felicia 2018-2018 never 5get  grade: U
 *  Hector Mr Worldwide (weeb%): this boi travel to asia to get some cute anime girls like shan shan uwu grade: A* (pronounced "a star" bc that is an a+ in bongland where i'm from)
 * Ileana (dinner%): was made in the kitchen for a hungry boi grade: F('ood')
 * John (hungry%): he bravo'd on ileana grade: C('annibal')
 * Kristy (0%): john controlled her and taking her to the middle of nowhere. ofc not. worse than thought smh grade: D
 *  Jane Lane (75%): u fakaz got blown by de one and only faka lane rip grade: ( A*) T H I C C BOI 😩💦💦😍😍😍❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️😘😘😘😘😘😘😂🔫 

Dylan's predictions

 * Aletta: 0% - A beautiful, intense, harmless kick-off to the season.
 * Bud: 1% - Another gorgeous storm to observe over open water, with fortunately minimal effects on land.
 * Carlotta: 2% - Was more of a nuisance for Mexico than expected.
 * Daniel: no
 * Emilia: 0% - Not an epic fail, not much of a winner either. It sort of just existed.
 * Fabio: 0% - 🎶leeeet doooown aaaaand haaaaanging aroooouuund🎵
 * Gilma: 0% - Worse flop than Daniel in terms of intensity but at least it was resilient in its post-TS depression stage.
 * Hector: 0% - Gud storm was gud. I'll defer to Steve and Ryan's explanations as to why.
 * Ileana: <1% 3% - John murdered her and consumed her remains <death metal plays in background> before she could do much to Mexico.
 * Bumping up a tad &mdash; Ileana is the first storm of the season to cause fatalities, with a death toll of 4 thus far. Fingers crossed it doesn't rise any higher.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:20, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * John: 0% - The ends probably didn't justify the means, but by preventing Ileana from being any worse for Mexico, John arguably helped more than he harmed.
 * Kristy: -1% - You can take a negative percent as punishment for stalling just below hurricane status for a full day, only to abruptly collapse into nothing. Poor show, Kristy.
 * Lane: TBD% - Still active. We'll see whether this becomes a threat to Hawaii down the road.

Roy's Retirement Prediction
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta ( 0% ) - A nice harmless fishspinner. Obviously this won't be going.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud ( 0.001% ) - While it did affected land at the end of its life, this was also pretty much a fishspinner
 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta ( 1% ) - While weak, it has came close to Mexico, but no deaths and damage were reported.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel ( 0% ) - A weak failicia that untimately was a name stealer. Unimpressed
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia ( 0% ) - A rather weak, but a nice fishspinner
 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio ( 0% ) - Nice fishspinning hurricane that broke the TS streak, but failed to reach major hurricane status. Sigh
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma ( 0% ) - Same as Daniel, except weaker, and only lasted 6 hours as a TS. Name-stealer.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector ( 0% ) - An impressive, long-lasting tri-basin crosser major hurricane that stayed away from land, but also failed to reach C5 status
 *  Ileana ( 3% ) - Didn't last long before being absorbed by John, but unfortunately also caused 4 fatalities
 * <font color="#ffe775">John ( 0% ) - Pretty much a fish that failed to become a major hurricane
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kristy ( 0% ) - Same as above, but instead failed to become a hurricane
 * <font color="#ff6060">LANE ( 50% ) - Became the first C5 in the EPAC/CPAC since Patricia in 2015, but also severely affected Hawaii, became the wettest tropical cyclone of the state and the second wettest in the US behind Harvey 2017. Damage and deaths are unknown at the moment, but seeing as how uncommon it is for a EPAC name to be retired (sometimes random), I'll give the retirement chance in a flip of a coin
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Miriam (???) - Currently active
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Norman (???) - Currently active

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions   02:36, August 1, 2018 (UTC) Last updated 18:12, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">One-E :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Gets credit for its formation before the start of the season. Still a fail, nonetheless.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta :
 * Retirement: 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A - A nice early season powerful hurricane. As a bonus, no one was affected at all.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud :
 * Retirement: 1% - Struck Baja, but without doing much harm. Caused a moisture plume to reach the southwestern U.S., and that wasn't harmful either. Impacts are too light for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#0F0">A- - Another nicely strong hurricane that reached the bare minimum for C4. Impacts are not enough to affect the grade.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta :
 * Retirement: 2% - Caused torrential rainfall in the area of Mexico that it affected. Impacts are not enough to even think about retirement, though.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Strong tropical storm that affected land. At least it was not a total failure like the below storm was.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel :
 * Retirement: 0% - Out to sea, no one was affected.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Laughable failure that only lasted 2 days and peaked at no more than 45 mph/1003 mbar. Danfail will be remembered as a complete nothingburger. 😂


 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia :
 * Retirement: 0% - Another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - That very active June was a bit more about quantity than quality. Reached 60 mph, but I don't care for this boring storm.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio :
 * Retirement: 0% - Yet another out-to-sea system.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - A strong C2 usually doesn't get this low of a grade. But the story is that Fabio's grade really suffered because it was expected to become a major hurricane, but flunked the mark by just 5 mph! In fact, it had potential to RI to reach C4 or possibly even C5. A major disappointment you were, Fabio.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma :
 * Retirement: 0% - Also out to sea.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Even worse than Danfail, and was a TS for only 6 measly hours. Gilfail was one of the worst, and most laughable, name-stealers ever! It did last a few days in total, which is the only thing that prevents it from being Z-.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Nine-E


 * Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - It had potential to last even longer than it did. At least it didn't steal a name. Still a pathetic failure though.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector :
 * Retirement: 0% - Despite its long track, it stayed out to sea and no fatalities or damage were reported at all.
 * Grading: <font color="#055">EO - Oh boy, where do I start. It crossed THREE basins, the first to do so since Genevieve in 2014. Also, it broke the record for most consecutive days as a major hurricane and most hours as a C4 in the northeastern Pacific. Except for dangerous surf in Hawaii, this did not harm anyone at all! Hector has earned its status as an extraordinarily outstanding storm! The only thing preventing this from being EO+, my absolute highest grade, is that it stayed below C5 unlike John '94 (a relatively similar storm).


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ileana :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">6% - Unfortunately proved to be deadly. 🙁 Highly unlikely for retirement though.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Did its best in the face of John. However, they did forecast a hurricane once.


 * <font color="#ffe775">John :
 * Retirement: 0% - I believe the only impacts were high surf.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - Pulled a Fabio by flunking major status. And shame on him for being a cannibal.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Kristy :
 * Retirement: 0% - Nope.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - It had potential to become a hurricane, but failed by 5 mph.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Lane :
 * Retirement: <font color="#3F0">32% - This retirement chance is still preliminary, and possibly conservative. Record rainfall has occurred in Hawaii, and that could have been highly impacting for the island chain. So far, Wikipedia reports at least $10.5 million dollars in damage and a death, but I believe the actual damage could be much higher.
 * Grading: <font color="#055">EO - Absolutely amazing storm that became the C5 that Hector never became, and was resilient in the end. Unfortunately, Hawaiian impacts prevent it from getting EO+.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Miriam :
 * Retirement: 0% - Fishspinners don't get retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - I'm surprised it was able to pull off C2 intensity. Thus, it gets a satisfactory grade from me.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Norman :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Olivia :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 04:19, September 7, 2018 (UTC))

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Here's my thoughts on retirements so far: That'll suffice. Ryan1000 04:44, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - A great way to start the season, and her strongest incarnation to date as well.
 * Bud - 1% - Like Aletta, this is the strongest incarnation of Bud to date, but his Baja landfall brought minimal effects at most.
 * Carlotta - 2% - This was to Bud as Carlos was to Blanca in 2015, a slightly worse storm but still probably won't be retired.
 * Daniel - 0% - It's a shame that Daniel, one of our traditional EPac major fishspinners, flopped this time around...try again in 2024.
 * Emilia - 0% - Fared slightly better than Daniel but was still unimpressive overall.
 * Fabio - 0% - Reminds me of Hilary last year. He failed to meet expectations, but his large size held him back.
 * Gilma - 0% - Lasted slightly longer than Daniel but failed worse than he did by intensity.
 * Hector - 0% - Was an absolutely amazing storm to track. It lasted for the most consecutive days as a major hurricane on record in the Pacific while east of the dateline, at 7.75 days, beating Norbert of 1984, and racked up the 4th highest ACE of any Pacific hurricane while east of the dateline as well, all while not causing any known damage or deaths on land. My favorite storm of the season.
 * Ileana - 4% - Despite being eaten by John, Ileana unfortunately still killed 4 people in Mexico, with some minor damage to boot.
 * John - 0% - Fishie, and failed to be a major; consider that punishment for eating your little sister.
 * Kristy - 0% - It's a shame that Kristy fell short of hurricane intensity; hopefully she can be upgraded in reanalysis.
 * Lane - 55% - Lane became Hawaii's wettest hurricane on record, narrowly surpassing Hiki of 1950, and apparently according to one of Dr. Master's blog posts, Lane caused at least 200 million dollars in flood damage to Hawaii, according to insurance broker Aon Benfield. That's almost 3 times the damage from Iselle in 2014, not to mention the 1 death. I can't say for certain if Lane will be retired, but it's definitely a possibility that can't be overlooked.
 * Miriam - 0% - Defied intensity expectations, but still remained well at sea.
 * Norman - 0% - Strong and long-lived, but remained a safe distance from Hawaii
 * Olivia - ?? - Still active, but the current late forecast period of Olivia turning WSW to hit Hawaii from the north is worrisome...
 * Paul - 0% - Still active, but will be a weak fishspinner.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
I'll jump on the bandwagon and add mine too.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * One-E – grade  D . Couldn't do much in the face of shear, but gave us an early start.
 * Aletta – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Amazing powerful June fishspinner. Well done for our first ever major hurricane Aletta.
 * Bud – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Touched C4 but rapidly weakened immediately after. Thankful for that however as it made landfall on Baja California not long after, and didn't cause much damage.
 * Carlotta – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Intensified surprisingly quickly close to land despite being forecast to fizzle. Not much damage reported, so that's all good.
 * Daniel – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Historically Daniel was the name of a long line of fishspinning majors. Completely flopped this year with its weakest ever incarnation. Boo.
 * Emilia – grade  E , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Chose the wrong time and place to form and got burdened by shear.
 * Fabio – grade  C , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Great fishspinner, but lost points for peaking just under major hurricane status. :(
 * Gilma – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Utterly pathetic name thief. Probably doesn't even deserve a grade.
 * Nine-E – grade  E . See Emilia.
 * Hector – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Powerful tri-basin crosser that managed to miss Hawaii. Well done, Hector. Definitely best storm so far.
 * Ileana – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Surprised us all by spinning up so quickly and beating out the more hopeful AOIs (John and Kristy). Could have become a hurricane (albeit a dangerous one, given her proximity to Mexico) if not for John's cannibal tendencies.
 * John – grade  C , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Gets points for being interesting by cannibalizing Kristy, but pulled a Fabio and flunked major hurricane status. :(
 * Kristy – grade  D , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Screwed up by peaking just under hurricane intensity; grade may rise if she's upgraded post-season.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 14:18, August 16, 2018 (UTC).

Harvey's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#666">0% or <font color="#666">N/A, <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9% , <font color="#00FFFF">1-9% , <font color="#00D5D5">10-19% , <font color="#00A0A0">20-29% , <font color="#00A000">30-39% , <font color="#FFC800">40-49% , <font color="#FF8800">50-59% , <font color="#E80000">60-69% , <font color="#B40000">70-79% , <font color="#800000">80-89% , <font color="#000000">90-99% , <font color="#000080">100% 

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 


 * <font color="#5ebaff">One-E :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F - Mostly a fail, but it did form in the early season.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - This storm did not affect land.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A - This storm gets a high grade due to the rapid deepening and the great satellite imagery at peak intensity. This is the strongest incarnation of this storm to date.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud :
 * Retirement: <font color="#AFFFFF">0.7% - It did struck Baja late in its life as a weak TS, however impacts are too minimal for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A- - Like the above storm, it was a powerful early storm that was the strongest of its incarnation, however this one was slightly weaker.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta :
 * Retirement: <font color="00FFFF">1% - Caused torrential rainfall in Mexico. Impacts are minimal and do not affect the retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - This would become the first of many weak storms in the season. Impacts aren't memorable enough to affect the grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fish storm.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Just about every other incarnation of this storm was a fishspinner that reached major hurricane status, but this one broke the chain and decided to fail miserably. Ugh...
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Another weak fishspinner. Another fail, but it didn't fail too hard.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Yet another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C - Well, it could have been higher, but it's only because it failed even though it was expected to be a major. And it was 5 mph away from becoming one, and might have even had the chance to become a C4 or possibly even C5. I would have put it lower, but at least it did reach a high intensity.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fish-spinning fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#300">Z- - It barely lasted more than two days, and was only a TS for 6 hours. In other words, it didn't try at all.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Nine-E


 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Another weak depression. At least it didn't steal a name like the above storm did.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Impact was minimal.
 * Grading: S - This is hands down the best storm of the season. It crossed all three basins, the last time this happened was with Genevieve in 2014. It also broke the record for most consecutive days as a major hurricane and most hours as a C4 in the northeastern Pacific. Best of all, it didn't harm me at all (I live in Hawaii FYI). C5 or not, it still earned the highest grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ileana :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">3% - 4 deaths. Still unlikely for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#9F0">C+ - It did its best, unfortunately eaten up by John. It could have been a hurricane.
 * <font color="#ffe775">John :
 * Retirement: 0% - Only high surf.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - While it did get some points for eating up a storm, it flunked major status.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kristy :
 * Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - It could have become a hurricane, but it failed.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Lane :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00a0a0">21% - Well, this is a hard one. Lane was the third wettest tropical cyclone to hit Hawaii, bringing 52 inches. It didn't really affect me too much, which is good. This grade however is not final as the deaths and damage are unknown.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A - Lane was an impressive storm to say for the least. It did become the first Category 5 hurricane in 3 years and the first C5 in the Central Pacific since 2006, but unfortunately, it caused Hawaii (which is where I live in, BTW) to get very paranoid with the threatening of a potential landfall, but it didn't make landfall (which is good). The combination of the storm being impressive while threatening me at the same time makes the grade uncertain, but for now I'll give it an A.

Notes: Harveycane (Talk |  Contributions)  07:52, August 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Percentages/grades in italics indicate temporary ratings and would have yet to change.

Lee’s retirement predictions
Leeboy100 Hello!! 07:18, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta- 0%: Nice harmless Category 4 to start the season. However, no impacts= no retirement.
 * Bud-1%: Another Category 4. Made landfall in Baja, but didn’t do much. It’s staying.
 * Carlotta-2%: Like Bud, it caused some impacts to land. Still, also like Bud, it’s staying.
 * Daniel-0%: Well, it existed. That’s about all I can say.
 * Emilia-0%: Ehhhh.
 * Fabio-0%: Was a nice system to look at for a few days.
 * Gilma-0%: Absolutely not.
 * Hector- 0%: Absolutely amazing storm, and my favorite of the year so far. Became a really strong Cat 4, and lasted quite a while, not harming anyone in the process. First storm to cross all three Northern Pacific basins since Genevieve. It may be upgraded to a Cat 5 in post analysis, but since neither Jose or Joaquin were, I won’t hold my breath. No impacts doesn’t get it a chance at retirement, but I’ll give him this (⭐️) for being such a great storm.
 * Ileana- 5%: Unfortunately, I have to revise my previous prediction. Ileana did manage to cause 4 deaths before becoming lunch for Hurricane John. Still, I don’t see her going anywhere.
 * John- 0%: Other than completely murdering another storm, John didn’t do much. He’s staying.
 * Kristy- 0%: Didn’t do much. Staying
 * Lane- Currently active Expected to bring impacts to Hawaii. Currently a high-end category 4, but will weaken before it gets to Hawaii. Lane, behave.

IbAHAn1829tree's Name Retirement Chances
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:20, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Category 4 Aletta - 0% : C4 fishspinner, did nothing to land.
 * Category 4 Bud - 0% : Another C4 storm, hit land but did nothing.
 * Tropical Storm Carlotta - 0% : A TS, hit land but did nothing.
 * Tropical Storm Daniel - 0% : Not sure why this name was even used for this storm.
 * Tropical Storm Emilia - 0% : Another TS that did nothing.
 * Category 2 Fabio - 0% : A C2 that failed to reach major hurricane intensity since it was so big and did nothing.
 * Tropical Storm Gilma - 0% : Epic fail, even worse than Felicia '15.
 * Category 4 Hector - 0% : Almost became a C5 and existed in all three North Pacific basins, but did nothing.
 * Tropical Storm Ileana - 0.1% : Sadly caused the deaths of 4 people before being eaten by Hurricane John.
 * Category 2 John - 0% : Failed to become a C3, ate TS Ileana.
 * Tropical Storm Kristy - 0% : Did nothing.
 * CATEGORY 5 LANE - 50% : Caused major flooding on the Big Island of Hawaii. The damage totals have yet to be found, plus I think they'll get rid of this name anyway.
 * Category 2 Miriam - 0% : Was doomed to be a fail, but instead became a Category 2. It never did anything to land anyway.
 * Category 4 Norman - 0% : Is currently a fishspinner that almost became a C5.
 * Tropical Storm Olivia - 0% : The NHC forecasts this to be a tropical storm, and nothing more. Yeah, this storm might be too big to become a hurricane. Actually, Olivia is intensifying and is expected to become a hurricane, but it will still be a fishspinner that will do nothing.

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Grade colors:  S ,  A+ ,  A ,  A- ,  B ,  C ,  D ,  E ,  F ,  Failippe 

Note: Impact to land has no affect on grade, aside from S rank, which is reserved for fishspinners.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">One-E : Grade:  E  - Retirement: 0% - Forgettable TD, only saved from an F by being a pre-season storm.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta : Grade:  A+  - Retirement: 0% - Defied predictions by exploding into a Cat. 4, showing Adrian how it's done.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud : Grade:  A  - Retirement: 0.1% - Did what Aletta did except slightly weaker and with minor land impacts.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlottta : Grade:  D  - Retirement: 1% - Hovered around the Mexican coast for a while, but impacts were thankfully not all that major.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danfail : Grade:  F  - Retirement: 0% - Historic major turned epic fail. Dissapointing.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia : Grade:  D  - Retirement: 0% - Uh.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio : Grade:  C  - Retirement: 0% - Decent storm, but just barely missed Cat. 3 status despite predictions. Grade will go up if he attains major status on post-analysis.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Failma : Grade:  Failippe  - Retirement: 0% - It could've been just another forgettable TD, but it had to go and steal the name Gilma in the worst way possible. What a disgrace.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Nine-E : Grade:  F  - Retirement: 0% - It existed. NEXT!
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector : Grade:  S  - Retirement: 0% - Oh man, what a storm. It spent the longest consecutive time as a major in the history of the E Pac, racked up the 4th highest ACE in the history of the E Pac, crossed through 3 basins, and left Hawaii alone. Cat. 5 or no, Hector is definitely deserving of my highest grade, and is now one of my personal favorite storms of all time.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ileana : Grade  D (inner) - Retirement: 4% - Tried to become a hurricane, but her time was cut short by her big brother John. Unfortunately, she caused the deaths of 4 people.
 * <font color="#ffe775">John : Grade:  C (annibal) - Retirement: 0% - Missed major status, but I consider that karma for consuming Ileana. Not cool, John.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kristy : Grade:  D  - Retirement: 0% - Came closer to hurricane status than Ileana, but still failed.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Lane : Grade:  A+  - Retirement: ??? - Definitely an impressive storm, being the first Cat. 5 in the Central Pacific since Ioke, the second storm this season to have an ACE total over 40 units, and an impressive display of resilience in the face of high shear. However, he is kept from S rank by his impacts in Hawaii, where he dumped the second highest amount of rain from a tropical cyclone in US history on the Big Island. The monetary damage from this could wind up being some of the worst Hawaii has ever seen, but I will reserve my retirement prediction until more estimates come out.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Miriam : Grade:  A-  - Retirement: 0% - Gets an A- rank for defying predictions and becoming a Cat 2 in the face of quite a lot of shear. Well done Miriam!
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Norman : Grade:  S  - Retirement: 0% - Initially looked to be another almost-but-not-quite Cat 5, but proved to be incredibly resilient when he restrengthened into a major not once, but twice, the second time being almost right out of nowhere. He also avoided land entirely, which, along with his performance, justifies him earning an S rank in my eyes.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Olivia : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Paul  Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.

More will be added as needed. Send Help Please (talk) 16:21, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Male "L" names (Potentially for Lane)
We're 12 storms down so far, but Lane is rapidly looking like a very dangerous threat to Hawaii, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say he could already be the 2018 EPac season's first serious retirement candidate. If Lane does cause notable effects to Hawaii over the coming days, what do you think will replace him? Here are some suggestions: My first choice would be Lucas, but Leo, Levi, Lance, and Laurence, among others, are good too. Ryan1000 20:50, August 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lucas
 * Luke
 * Leo(n)
 * Leonard(o)
 * Logan
 * Levi
 * Landon
 * Laurence
 * Lance
 * Lamar
 * Luciano

I kinda think something English and simple, like Lane himself, will be the replacement. Luke anyone? (Logan reminds me of Paul but sadly not something hurricane ppl will chose :/ also leonardo is nice, like dicaprio, and kendrick lamar. levi ackerman/strauss anyone?) most likely luke though. what about lander? I know a guy named lander irl... lance is literally lane with a c tbh --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:29, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * This may be jumping the gun, but my hat's in for either Lucas or Laurence. Send Help Please  (talk) 01:34, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

In my opinion, Lucas, Luke, and Landon could be a best fit for Lane's replacement, that is if Lane does some notable impacts for Hawaii. I got some other male "L" names: I honestly don't think any of the names I've listed would be a best fit, but those are some other male "L" names. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     02:23, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Liam
 * Lucius
 * Lionel
 * Linius
 * Leif
 * Lennon
 * Layton
 * Luigi (This would be funny having Mario and Luigi on the same basin)
 * Lucien


 * Forgot about Luigi, that would be a good pick too. Or Lucifer, but that's a bit intimidating, to say the least. Ryan1000 05:30, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * That would have to be one of my favorite potential replacements, honestly... can you just imagine the irony of a 40 mph epic fail named Lucifer? :D (or, indeed, how fitting it would be for a Category 5 Hurricane Lucifer to threaten land...)
 * In all seriousness though, my top 5 would have to be Lazlo, Luke, Luigi, Liam, and Lucifer, in that order. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 09:38, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lucas, Luke, Liam, or Luigi seem most likely for me. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:04, August 23, 2018 (UTC)

Female "O" names (Potentially for Olivia)
Lane is a potential retirement candidate, but with Olivia's WSW track taking it towards or into a potential landfall in Hawaii from the north, it may be safe to say Olivia will also be a retirement candidate alongside Lane due to her (potential) effects in Hawaii. If Olivia's effects on Maui or the other islands end up being notable, what do you think will replace her? Here are some suggestions: I personally like Olina or Orna/Orma, but there are a decent selection of "O" names available...I copy-pasted most of these from Odile in 2014 (which was retired and replaced with Odalys). Ryan1000 14:19, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Orabella
 * Orlanda
 * Ornella
 * Orsola
 * Octavia
 * Odelia
 * Ottavia
 * Osana
 * Orma
 * Orna
 * Omena
 * Oliana
 * Opalina
 * Ohanna
 * Olina
 * Ora

Post-Season Changes
^This is the storm's peak intensity while it was located east of the Central Pacific, and the CPac TCR's on these storms will come out separately. In the CPac, Hector's operational peak was 155 mph and 936 mbars, Lane's CPac peak was 160 mph and 922 mbars, and Miriam's CPac peak was 100 mph and 974 mbars.

^^These storms didn't dissipate on these dates, but moved into the CPac (and later WPac for Hector) basins.

Already we have our first TCR, its for One-E. Only change was that the pressure was raised to 1007, and One-E's duration was decreased by one day. -- Roy 25  23:11, July 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Aletta is out. No changes happened to her though. Ryan1000 14:17, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * do you want to put speeds in km/h for us non-americans or not --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 17:50, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sorry for the late reply, but the table wouldn't look very neat if we put in the winds in knots, mph and km/hr, since it's only so wide and every storm would then have 2 or more rows for it. It's better with just 1 row per storm the way it is. Ryan1000 14:20, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

Also, changed a few things on Hector, since the EPac and CPac TCR's will be separate, and Hector's peak while east of the CPac was lower. Ryan1000 16:08, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

Emilia is out. Not much change. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:30, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Only difference is that Emilia's duration was cut slightly short; operationally she was thought to dissipate on July 2nd, now it was on the 1st. Ryan1000 13:42, August 28, 2018 (UTC)