Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC Best Track for last year is out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

October
Has begun, but WPac is still below average. By JMA's standards, we're fairly on track in terms of named storms, but we've had only 4 typhoons and 3 major typhoons. We'd need 5 more typhoons to avoid tying 2010's record low, and 1 more major to avoid tying 1977's/2010's record lows. In terms of ACE, this season is also below-normal. Ryan1000 01:15, October 1, 2013 (UTC)

I predict 5 tropical storms, 3 severe tropical storms, and 3 typhoons will develop during this month. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:38, October 2, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
A new tropical depression has been classified by the JMA. It currently has winds of 30 knots (35 mph, <55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa). Also, the JTWC has labeled this system Invest 97W and gives it a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:38, October 2, 2013 (UTC)

Now with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) per the JMA, the JTWC gives the system a medium chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours per their standards. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:37, October 3, 2013 (UTC)

The depression's pressure has fallen to 1002 mbar (hPa). Also, the JTWC has issued a TCFA for the system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:37, October 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 23W
It's now Tropical Depression 23W according to the JTWC. Expect Danas from this, and later on a typhoon. It might be a threat to Japan and Korea in the long term. Steven09876 T 22:56, October 3, 2013 (UTC)

The depression is forecast to reach 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:00, October 4, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Danas
The Western Pacific is really starting to make up the January-mid September activity drought. This depression is now at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (10-minute winds) /996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) per the JMA. The agency has named it Danas, a name submitted by the Philippines which means "to experience" or "to feel". The JTWC has also upgraded the system to a 35 knot (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) tropical storm with gusts of 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h). Currently, the JMA forecast it will reach 50 knots (60 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /985 mbar (hPa), and the JTWC forecast a peak of 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /110 knot (120 mph) gusts. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:25, October 4, 2013 (UTC)

Geez, the WPac has been exploding lately!!! We could get our 6th official typhoon from this. Steven09876 T 23:40, October 4, 2013 (UTC)

Danas is now at 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg) per the JMA and 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /70 knot (80 mph, 130 km/h) per the JTWC. Currently, the JMA forecast a peak of 55 knots (65 mph) (10-minute sustained) /980 mbar (hPa) and the JTWC forecast a peak of 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /110 knot (120 mph) gusts. Seoul, Kyoto, and Tokyo all may need to watch out for Danas per the latest JTWC danger grpahic. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:37, October 5, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Danas
Why fuss about the lack of Atlantic/Eastern Pacific activity when we could just concentrate on the Western Pacific? Danas is currently at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) per the JMA and at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /80 knot (90 mph, 150 km/h) gusts per the JTWC. In other words, Danas is now a severe tropical storm and we have our ninth (unofficial) typhoon of the year! And to make things even better, the storm is forecast to reach 65 knots (75 mph) (10-minute sustained) /975 mbar (hPa) per the JMA and 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute sustained) /115 knot (135 mph) gusts per the JTWC! Combined with Pabuk's potential upgrade, we could really be looking at seven official typhoons by the time Fitow and Danas have been said and done! Yay! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:39, October 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Eh, we don't want to cheer on this one, it could be destructive for Japan in the long run but yeah, at least the WPac is catching up on some activity...Ryan1000 20:12, October 5, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Danas (Ramil)
(edit conflict) 65 kts/975 mbar per the JMA, 70 kts per the JTWC. I believe that this and Fitow are the first official (and maybe even unofficial) typhoons this year to exist simultaneously. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:14, October 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * HIP HIP HORRAY we have our 6th typhoon of the year! Good show, boy, good show! Japan might need to watch out, as it can cause plenty of impacts once it arrives. Since the Atlantic and EPac has been so boring lately, why not focus on the WPac? At least they are getting some real activity! Steven09876 T 00:59, October 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Danas is bombing out! It is now at 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg) per the JMA and at 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /105 knot (120 mph, 195 km/h) gusts per the JTWC. The JMA forecast a peak of 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /955 mbar (hPa) and the JTWC forecast a peak of 100 knots (115 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /125 knot (145 mph) gusts. In addition, PAGASA has named the typhoon Ramil. Here comes another major typhoon! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:38, October 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Danas is really beginning to rapidly deepen. It is at 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /955 mbar (hPa) already per the JMA and at 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /115 knot (135 mph) gusts per the JTWC. Japan needs to begin watching out. The JTWC now forecasts Danas's winds will reach 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 130 knots (150 mph). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:09, October 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Danas is looking dangerous out there. It's at 90 kts (10-min)/945 mbar per the JMA, and a Category 3-equivalent 105-kt (1-min) storm per the JTWC. Fourth WPAC major of the season, after Soulik, Utor, and the mighty Usagi. It's also rocketing northwestward at 24 mph, and is forecast to peak as a Category 4-equivalent 115-kt (1-min) storm just as it approaches Okinawa. It's good to see some intensity this year, but this could do some serious damage. I will repeat what I said during Usagi: why is it that whenever we finally get a strong storm this year, it has to pose a serious threat to land? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:03, October 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * This could be one of the strongest typhoons to hit Okinawa in a while, Man-Yi of 2007 was the last cat. 4 to scrape the island, hitting Okinawa with winds of nearly 155 mph, and eventually hitting southern Japan as a 110 mph cat 2. I doubt Danas will be on the same scale as Man-Yi, but it could still be devastating, and the area it's heading for in mainland Japan is one of the most vulnerable damage-wise. Ryan1000 20:39, October 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Danas visible images are looking impressive. The Dvorak estimates were at T6.0 last  time I checked, which puts it in at cat. 4. JMA is still taking it on the path westerly than northerly, this one could be really bad for Okinawa/Southern Honshu, I think that  once it gets into the Japan Sea it will continuously become less and less of a threat. Fred22 (talk) 22:48, October 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Danas looks like it's trying to become annular in the last few satellite images. Supportstorm (talk) 23:37, October 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * This loop definetely hints it's trying to become annular. Large, symmetrical eye and an intense band convection. These are the telltale signs of an annular TC, and Danas looks like its showing those characteristics. Fred22 (talk) 00:41, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like Danas is becoming annular. It is now a kinda strong typhoon, and Japan really needs to watch out. Danas could become pretty destructive. Steven09876 T 01:13, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * 115 kts (1-min) is more than just "kinda" strong, I'd say. I hope the folks in Okinawa are prepared for this thing... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:19, October 7, 2013 (UTC)

(←)Yikes, Danas is now a Category 4 typhoon per the JTWC with gusts of 140 knots (160 mph, 260 km/h). The JMA assesses Danas's ten-minute sustained winds to be 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h) and its pressure to be 935 mbar (hPa; 27.61 inHg); it now ties with Soulik for the third most intense system this year in terms of windspeed. A slight pressure drop to 930 mbar (hPa) is expected per the JMA. Okinawa needs to hurriedly prepare for this monster... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:04, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * This thing is bearing down on Okinawa with 125-knot (1-min) winds as we speak. Fingers crossed they make it out OK... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:48, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * The worst of Danas has now passed Okinawa and is down to 85 kts (10-min)/945 mbar per the JMA and 120 kts (1-min) per the JTWC. I must admit, I'm surprised by how slowly Danas strengthened for such a strong typhoon. It wasn't in any hurry to get there, but it eventually did. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:12, October 7, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Danas (2nd time)
And now, Danas is collapsing on itself. It is at 60 knots (70 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /975 mbar (hPa) per the JMA and 65 knots (75 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /80 knot (90 mph) gusts per the JTWC. In 24 hours, the JMA expects degeneration into a low, with the JTWC giving it 30 hours to live. Also, 15 fatalities have been reported from Danas, deadlier than Fitow. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:17, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Danas (2nd time)
Time to say farewell to Danas soon! It is at 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /985 mbar (hPa) per the JMA and at 55 knots (65 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /70 knot (80 mph) gusts per the JTWC's final warning bulletin. Degeneration into a low is expected in 10 hours per the JMA. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:28, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Bye, Danas. Hopefully it wasn't too bad for Okinawa. Steven09876 T 23:48, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Danas
Danas has finally retired to the skies per the JMA. It was not too bad for Okinawa, but damage reports should come out soon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:29, October 9, 2013 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Invest 98W has appeared as well. The JMA has not commented on the invest yet, but the JTWC assesses it to have a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:38, October 2, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
The JMA has classified this system as a 30 knot (35 mph, <55 km/h) (10-minute winds) /1010 mbar (hPa) tropical depression. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:37, October 3, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression
This depression passed in a flash. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:25, October 4, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Another new tropical depression is up! It is at 30 knots (35 mph, <55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) /1004 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. Luckily, I hope this becomes a typhoon! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:39, October 5, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression
And...it slammed into Thailand. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:17, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

Actually, this depression crossed over into the NIO. Any further comments on this system should go here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:15, October 9, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Now here's a good potential typhoon! The JMA has this depression at 30 knots (35 mph, <55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /1006 mbar (hPa). In addition, a TCFA has been issued from the JTWC, which calls this system Invest 91W. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:17, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 24W (Santi)
Uh oh, here comes another monster! This depression is at 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (1-minute sustained) /25 knot (30 mph) gusts per the JTWC and it is forecast to reach 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute sustained) before its Philippines landfall. PAGASA has also named this depression Santi. Watch out, Philippines and Vietnam! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:22, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * That doesn't sound very monstrous, but the Philippines should be prepared nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:25, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here comes Nari! The Philippines should prepare for this thing, because it is predicted to hit them as a typhoon. Steven09876 T 23:50, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nari
Already a typhoon by JTWC, and STS by JMA.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  11:56, October 10, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Nari
It is approaching the Philippines, and they need to be prepared. Nari is also predicted to affect Vietnam in the long run. Also, it is now a typhoon by JMA standards. Hooray for our 7th typhoon of the year! At least the WPAC is now producing a lot of typhoons instead of weaklings. Steven09876 T 22:49, October 10, 2013 (UTC)

Currently at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (10-minute sustained) /975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg) per the JMA and 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (1-minute sustained) /105 knot (120 mph) per the JTWC, Nari is exploding. A slight intensity increase to 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute sustained) /965 mbar (hPa) is expected per the JMA, and 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute sustained) /115 knot (135 mph) gusts per the JTWC. Everyone in the Philippines needs to watch this monster. It does not really matter that the WPAC is producing stronger systems; they can cause loads of destruction. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:43, October 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, in the wake of being attracted so much to Phailin in the NIO, this storm also caused a good deal of Flooding in Manila when it passed north of the city last night as a category 2 storm after hitting Luzon with 115 mph winds. Vietnam will eventually be hit with this, forecast to be 110 mph by JTWC when it does so. Ryan1000 21:46, October 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * (edit conflict) Nari has slammed into the Philippines. The JTWC has weakened the typhoon to 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 110 knots (120 mph). However, do not expect Nari's death. The JMA brings it to 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /955 mbar (hPa) in the next three days, and the JTWC takes it to the doorstep of Category 3 typhoon intensity, 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /115 knot (125 mph) gusts. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:52, October 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Nari just plummeted back up to 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) per the JTWC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:13, October 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope Vietnam is prepared for this, as it could hit them as a moderate to strong typhoon, possibly causing plenty of destruction. I also hope that it wasn't too bad for the Philippines. Steven09876 T 03:09, October 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Nari's ten-minute winds are up to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) and its pressure has fallen to 970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg) per the JMA. Thirteen fatalities have been reported so far from the typhoon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:01, October 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Per the JMA, Nari is up to 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /965 mbar (hPa). The JTWC have downgraded Nari's forecast peak to 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) . Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:55, October 13, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like the Philippines got a slight beating from Nari. Vietnam might also need to watch out, as it can cause some damage and deaths there too. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:22, October 13, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nari (2nd time)
Well, Nari has slammed into Vietnam. The JTWC has issued their last issue on Nari, and per the JMA, Nari is at 40 knots (45 mph) (10-minute sustained) /996 mbar (hPa) and is expected to degenerate in ~12 hours. So far, 33 fatalities and $71.4 million (2013 USD) have been reported from Nari. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:21, October 15, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nari
Down and out. Ryan1000 04:30, October 16, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
After fail after fail of storms, the WPAC is finally making a real last minute comeback. Another new tropical depression behind Tropical Depression 24W is up on the JMA tropical cyclone tracking map. It is at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /1004 mbar (hPa) per the JMA; the JTWC has issued this system a TCFA and designated the storm as Invest 92W. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me

Tropical Depression 25W
Where is everyone? Assuming this is the right system, it is now a depression according to the JTWC! Here comes Wipha. BTW, it appears that someone (probably Andrew) forgot to sign their post above. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:49, October 10, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Wipha
That was me. Anyway, the WPAC and NIO are both going absolutely nuts right now. Per the JMA, a new 35 knot (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg) tropical storm has formed. The agency has named it Wipha, a name submitted by Thailand which refers to a woman's name. With the storm itself, the JMA predicts our eighth typhoon with winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 965 mbar (hPa), while the JTWC foresees a 100 knot (115 mph) (1-minute sustained) typhoon with gusts of 125 knots (145 mph). Luckily, Wipha is recurving out to sea. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:49, October 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * After all these strong cyclones causing devastation on land (Utor, Usagi, Danas, and the impending Phailin), it's about time we got a decently strong fish storm. Go, Wipha, go! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:05, October 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Might be pretty powerful, although there is a slight chance it could clip eastern Japan before it rockets away from land. Ryan1000 21:54, October 11, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Wipha
Wipha is starting to explode. It is at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) per the JMA and at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /80 knot (90 mph, 150 km/h) gusts per the JTWC. And this storm is showing no signs of stopping! The JMA forecasts an 80 knot (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /950 mbar (hPa) typhoon from this system - even stronger than Nari's forecast peak, and the JTWC predicts a 105 knot (120 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) typhoon with gusts of up to 130 knots (150 mph). Sadly, Japan is in this typhoon's forecast cone, so Wipha might not become a complete fish storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:59, October 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here comes a potentially strong typhoon! It could explode during the next couple of days, and Japan might need to prepare for this. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 03:12, October 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wipha's one-minute winds are now at 60 knots (70 mph)/gusts of 75 knots (85 mph) per the JTWC. It is now forecast to reach winds of 110 knots (125 mph) (1-minute sustained) /135 knot (155 mph) gusts per the agency. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:02, October 12, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Wipha (Tino)
Well, 2010 remains the least active season in terms of typhoons as of this update! The JTWC just upgraded Wipha to a 65 knot (75 mph, 120 km/h) typhoon (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of up to 80 knots (90 mph). Even better, per the JMA, we have a 65 knot (75 mph, 120 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg) typhoon! The JTWC still makes Wipha our sixth "major" typhoon with winds of 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute sustained) /130 knot (150 mph) gusts, and the JMA still takes it to 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /950 mbar (hPa). Also, I found out Wipha is a very lucky name in the WPAC basin. It became a typhoon in 2001 (it was misspelled Vipa that vear) and a super typhoon in 2007. 2013 is poised to continue that trend... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:06, October 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wipha has intensified to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /960 mbar (28.35 inHg) per the JMA. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:02, October 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wipha could become pretty powerful. Japan might need to watch out. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 20:37, October 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, unless Wipha's forecast track shifts back to the right, I'm taking back what I said about rooting for this storm. And so the trend of strong storms threatening land continues -_- --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:48, October 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wipha's really taking off. Its intensity is now at 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) per the JMA and at 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /110 knot (125 mph, 200 km/h) gusts per the JTWC. The JMA now take Wipha to 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /945 mbar (hPa) and the JTWC take it to 115 knots (135 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /140 knot (160 mph) gusts. Stay safe, Japan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:11, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wipha is going wild! The JMA has bumped her intensity up to 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg). And that still does not illustrate her fury. The JTWC has raised Wipha's winds to 115 knots (130 mph, 215 km/h) (1-minute sustained) and its gusts to 140 knots (160 mph, 260 km/h), making it a Category 4 typhoon! The JMA now take Wipha's ten-minute sustained winds to 90 knots (105 mph) and its pressure to 930 mbar (hPa), whereas the JTWC take Wipha's one-minute sustained winds to 125 knots (145 mph) and its gusts to 150 knots (170 mph). Prepare strongly, Japan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:49, October 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wipha is forecast to weaken greatly as it passes near or over Tokyo as a 75 mph storm in several days. While the city of Tokyo is well-prepared for tropical cyclones, if Wipha damages the nuclear reactors along the east coast of where the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami hit in 2011, it could be disasterous for them. Ryan1000 17:10, October 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope Wipha will weaken greatly once it reaches Tokyo. If the storm damages those nuclear reactors, then Wipha could become devastating! Hopefully Tokyo is prepared for this... <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:32, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, Wipha is stalling intensitywise. The only major update is that the typhoon's pressure has fallen to 940 mbar (hPa; 27.76 inHg) per the JMA. The JMA and JTWC, predict that Wipha, like Soulik, will pull a dud at the last minute, which should spare Japan. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:29, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * No one's bothering to check on the WPAC anymore? Wipha's still here, and it has a PAGASA name now - Tino. Per the JMA, Wipha is at 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /950 mbar (hPa), and per the JTWC, the typhoon is at 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /100 knot (115 mph) gusts. Wipha should dissipate in ~24 hours per the JMA and become extratropical in ~24 hours per the JTWC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:27, October 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Guess some of us are bored out of our minds by now...Wipha is clipping the coast near Tokyo as a category 1 storm, but it might cause quite some flooding in the area due to it's large size. 93W below, could follow in Wipha's footsteps and threaten Japan as well... Ryan1000 23:09, October 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, no one cares about the WPac. Wipha could cause quite a bit of flooding in Japan, but hopefully it won't be too bad for the folks there. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:20, October 16, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Wipha
Wipha has now lost tropical characteristics as it races into the north Pacific. Japan might have suffered some damage but I doubt it was anything severe. Ryan1000 04:30, October 16, 2013 (UTC)

Wipha have killed at least 17 and the death toll could climb up sadly.Allanjeffs 16:33, October 16, 2013 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
Behind Nari was Wipha, and now behind Wipha, we have another new invest! Designated Invest 93W by the JTWC, it has a medium chance of formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:29, October 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one could be a pretty scary storm for Japan if some of the model runs on this one come true...one run of the GFS takes this to 934 mbars. Ryan1000 23:11, October 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here comes Francisco! This could become a devastating disaster for Japan in the long term, and I feel bad for them, especially since it'll strike Japan soon after Wipha. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:25, October 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26W
Now numbered 26W by the JMA. This should become Francisco, and even though it's only a depression, JTWC already takes it to a category 3 typhoon heading northwards towards Japan in 4 or 5 days. Behind this there's another area of low pressure that could become Lekima. I have bad feelings about this... Ryan1000 04:25, October 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Francisco
And now named by JMA. JTWC takes this to 135 mph nearing southern Japan. Both the GFS and the Euro take this into Tokyo as a powerful typhoon in several days with Lekima following shortly behind. This could get pretty ugly... Ryan1000 15:24, October 16, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Francisco
Yikes, Francisco is taking off. The storm's intensity is at 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg) per the JMA and at 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /75 knot (85 mph) gusts per the JTWC, making it a severe tropical storm. The JMA bombs Francisco to 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /950 mbar (hPa) in 72 hours, which could be very catastrophic for Japan. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:57, October 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * The latest run of the GFS takes Francisco into the southern Japanese Island of Kyushu as a 976 mbar category 2 storm, that could be destructive. It's been a while since they've been hit with a cat 2, Man-Yi and Usagi did so back in July 2007. The Euro is picturing a more grim scenario for Japan, taking Francisco right into Tokyo as a 968 mbar category 3 typhoon in 5 days. The last major typhoon to hit Tokyo (and the strongest in the city's history to date) was 2004's Ma-On (once a category 5 storm). It hit Tokyo as a 120 mph category 3 storm. Fortunately, Ma-On was a small and quick moving typhoon, leading to only around 680 million in damage or so. Typhoon Fitow just 3 years later also directly hit the city, but although Fitow was weaker (only 75 mph), it was very big when it hit and caused a billion dollars in damage. Francisco could also be very large when it hits Japan, which is a very dangerous scenario for storm surge, furthermore considering the tucked back "V" shape of Tokyo bay. Of course, the model forecasts right now aren't guaranteed to happen, but they're not good things to see, especially the Euro. They'd better prepare for this one. Ryan1000 02:48, October 17, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Francisco
The WPAC is really taking off now. Francsico literally consumed a whole bottle of caffeinated soda over night. The system's intensity is set at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg) per the JMA and at 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /90 knot (100 mph) gusts per the JTWC. And he is nowhere near done! The JMA explode Francisco to 90 knots (100 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /935 mbar (hPa) in 72 hours and the JTWC careens him to 125 knots (145 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /150 knot (175 mph) gusts in 72 hours. Watch out, Japan! Also, for the record, Man-yi was recently upgraded to a typhoon retroactively per the JMA. Combined with Francisco's upgrade, we now have ten official typhoons! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:28, October 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * The GFS and Euro are still on their initial forecast tracks, GFS now showing landfall on the southern end of Kyushu at 968 mbars. The Euro is still confident that Francisco will go into Tokyo at that intensity, but it all depends on how fast it moves. The GFS predicts that Francisco will move fairly quickly to the northwest and get picked up by a trough when it hits Kyushu and heads northeast over the country and eventually dies. The Euro doesn't see Francisco moving that fast and they think the trough will pull Francisco towards Tokyo at the same intensity as the GFS predicts. It promises to be a very notable storm, but Japan better watch out for this one. It could get very nasty. Ryan1000 18:50, October 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Geez, the WPac has really been exploding lately!!! After producing mostly tropical storms and a few typhoons in June, July, August, and September, the WPac is now producing several typhoons at once!! I can't believe we are already at 27 named storms. That's more than last year! Back to Francisco, the JTWC takes this up to 135 kts, so we could very well see a super typhoon out of this. But before it will reach Japan, it will weaken a little bit. Japan could take a beating from this, and this could get pretty nasty. Stay tuned. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:46, October 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Goodness, this typhoon is exploding! Per the JMA, Francisco is a 75 knot (85 mph, 140 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds), 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg) typhoon. But the JTWC has exploded it to 110 knots (125 mph, 205 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 135 knots (155 mph), making it our seventh Category 3 typhoon of the year. The JMA bring Francisco very near southern Japan in the coming five days with an intensity of 95 knots (110 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /930 mbar (hPa) - slightly stronger than Wipha, and the JTWC takes the typhoon to 135 knots (155 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of up to 165 knots (190 mph). Luckily, Francisco should rapidly weaken before its Japan landfall. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:23, October 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Francisco's turn to the northeast is becoming increasingly difficult to predict. The Euro now sees Francisco missing Japan like Typhoon Wipha while the GFS forecasts it to head farther east toards the center of Japan as a fairly strong typhoon. It's currently at 145 mph and it's forecast to peak at 150 before dying down, but given the incredibly warm SST's and low shear, Francisco might even have a shot at category 5 strength before it powers down prior to its landfall in Japan. Ryan1000 17:56, October 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now a super typhoon. Who gave Francisco steroids?-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:34, October 18, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Another new tropical depression is up! It is at 30 knots (35 mph, <55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /1010 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. I assume this is the system the models predict will explode into a typhoon, potentially faster than Francisco. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:34, October 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * The models don't want to explode this one nearly as fast, but this storm (Lekima), could follow behind Francisco after he hits Japan. Ryan1000 12:41, October 17, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
There are enough storms. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:55, September 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * All - 10% - Nothing seems to be worth retiring this year. (Except Labuyo, Usagi [Although it still sucked])

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions:

JMA:
 * 1) Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all.
 * 2) Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not.
 * 3) Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths.
 * 4) Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi.
 * 5) Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 6) Rumbia - 5% - Fifty-five deaths, along with $1.25 million (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca an unlikely retirement candidate. Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * 7) Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good.
 * 8) Cimaron - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported.
 * 9) Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been.
 * 10) Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it will be bad at all for Vietnam.
 * 11) Utor - 40% - Utor could have been so much worse than it really was. Looking at a super typhoon explode so close to the Philippines was just unreal. The Philippines have quite the road to recovery and southern China was hit pretty good as well. However, despite the ugly $21 million (2013 USD) in damage, the eight deaths lowers my percentage significantly. If Utor had caused Bopha or Washi-like fatality totals, we could be looking at a typhoon with an 80% chance of retirement.
 * 12) Trami - 3% - Trami did cause 18 fatalities and property losses of $1.83 million (2013 USD). It also has caused serious flooding in China and the Philippines. Fortunately, most of those regions were in a drought, so there was some benefit from the storm.
 * 13) Kong-rey - 1% - Despite the two deaths reported from Kong-rey, I doubt it will be remembered.
 * 14) Yutu - 0% - Yutu was nothing more than a Western Pacific Gaston or Jose.
 * 15) Toraji - 0.5% - Toraji was not significantly bad for Japan or Taiwan.
 * 16) Man-yi - 0.5% - Only one fatality was reported from Man-yi, and that does not make it a retirement nominee at all.
 * 17) Usagi - 40% - Hong Kong came so close to getting nailed here. Luckily, Usagi collapsed before it could do so. However, the 50 deaths and $1.15 billion (2013 USD) in damage will make it a major retiree candidate.
 * 18) Pabuk - 0% - Pabuk tried...and failed.
 * 19) Wutip - 20% - Wutip caused lots of hype in Vietnam. Sixty-five fatalities and $233 million (2013 USD) in damage do give a small shot of leaving.
 * 20) Sepat - 0.01% - Sepat's impacts to Japan should not be enough at all to retire it.
 * 21) Fitow - 4% - Fitow's $372 million (2013 USD) in damage and 11 fatalities make it along the lines of Soulik, which is good, considering the flooding in China.
 * 22) Danas - 10% - Okinawa may have gotten unlucky here. 2007's Man-yi was their last brutal beating, and Danas was not as strong as Man-yi. Still, fifteen fatalities gives it a chance.
 * 23) Nari - 8% - The Philippines, Vietnam, and Loas did get pounded a little. $71.4 million in damages (2013 USD) and 38 fatalities, along with some flooding, give it that small chance.
 * 24) Wipha - 5% - The 13 fatalities in Japan are not looking good...
 * 25) Francisco - TBA - Still Active

PAGASA:
 * 1) Auring - 0.1% - No.
 * 2) Bising - 0% - No way.
 * 3) Crising - 2% - Not really.
 * 4) Dante - 0% - No way.
 * 5) Emong - 0.05% - No.
 * 6) Fabian - 0% - No way.
 * 7) Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it.
 * 8) Huaning - 0% - No.
 * 9) Isang - 0.01% - No.
 * 10) Jolina - 0.05% - No.
 * 11) Kiko - 0.05% - No.
 * 12) Labuyo - 50% - Maybe, but I will not guarantee it.
 * 13) Maring - 0.5% - No.
 * 14) Nando - 0.01% - No.
 * 15) Odette - 0.5% - Not really.
 * 16) Paolo - 0.01% - No.
 * 17) Quedan - 0% - No way.
 * 18) Ramil - 0% - No way.
 * 19) Santi - 3% - Not really.
 * 20) Tino - 0% - No way.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Might as well make mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Those are mine. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - <1% - Not happening.
 * Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha.
 * Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan.
 * Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this.
 * Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area.
 * Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse.
 * Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse.
 * Jebi - 8% - Meh.
 * Mangkhut - 10% - Not too bad.
 * Utor - 65% - Caused lots of damage over parts of Luzon, China got off better though.
 * Trami - 15% - It contributed to an already severe flood problem in China, hopefully it doesn't get much worse.
 * Kong-Rey - 15% - Some flooding, but nothing significant.
 * Yutu - 0% - Do it again! I wasn't looking.
 * Toraji - 5% - Some flooding in Japan, but likely not retirement-worthy.
 * Man-Yi - 3% - Damage in Japan wasn't too severe.
 * Usagi - 15% - Some damage and deaths, but like Utor, Hong Kong escaped the worst of the storm's fury.
 * Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Wutip - 25% - Haven't seen impacts yet, but it wasn't negligible, I can tell you that.
 * Sepat - 0% - Fish.
 * Fitow - 25% - Some damage and deaths, but China has seen worse.
 * Danas - 0% - Gave Japan and the Koreas a scare but they came out unscathed.
 * Nari - 20% - Some damage and deaths, but probably not retirement-worthy.
 * Wipha - 15% - Zipped right by Japan as a typhoon, but didn't do as much as it could've done.
 * Francisco - ?? - This could get bad for Japan...
 * Auring - 1% - Not enough.
 * Bising - 0% - Seriously?
 * Crising - 4% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening.
 * Fabian - 0% - What?
 * Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen.
 * Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines.
 * Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines.
 * Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands.
 * Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines.
 * Labuyo - 100% - Has been retired.
 * Maring - 2% - Mostly missed the islands.
 * Nando - ~0% - No real impacts to the islands.
 * Odette - <5% - Largely missed Luzon.
 * Paolo - 0% - Missed the islands.
 * Quendan - 0% - Well away from the Philipines.
 * Ramil - 0% - Again, missed the islands.
 * Santi - 25% - Killed 13 people, but that's not even a shadow of what they've seen before (Bopha anyone?)
 * Tino - 0% - Not even close.

Here's my predictions:

JMA names
 * Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough.
 * Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement.
 * Yagi - 0% - Failure.
 * Leepi - 0% - No way.
 * Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it.
 * Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse.
 * Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so.
 * Jebi - 0.5% - Nope.
 * Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it.
 * Utor - 55% - Caused lots of destruction in the Philippines and China. I think we have the first serious retirement candidate!
 * Trami - 10% - It did cause some damage and deaths, but I don't think it is going.
 * Kong-rey - 2% - Probably not.
 * Yutu - 0% - Nothing.
 * Toraji - 1% - Affected Japan, but it will not be retired.
 * Man-yi - 2% - Not much damage in Japan.
 * Usagi - 20% - Hong Kong almost got devastated here. Well, at least its center missed the area and it weakened, so it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. But it still caused plenty of damage and deaths.
 * Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Wutip - 25% - Caused some destruction in Vietnam, but I doubt retirement.
 * Sepat - 0% - Another fail.
 * Fitow - 15% - Caused some damage and deaths in China, but it will most likely not be retired.
 * Danas - 5% - Wasn't too bad.
 * Nari - 20% - Caused quite a bit of damage and deaths in the Philippines and Vietnam, but retirement? Probably not.
 * Wipha - 10% - This storm zipped right by Japan, and it caused some deaths and damage. But I think it will stay.
 * Francisco - ? - Still active

PAGASA names <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it.
 * Bising - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Crising - 2% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Hell no.
 * Emong - 0.1% - No.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way.
 * Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse.
 * Huaning - 0% - Nope.
 * Isang - 0.1% - Not happening.
 * Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired.
 * Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines.
 * Labuyo - Retired.
 * Maring - 0.5% - It mostly missed the Philippines.
 * Nando - 0% - No Philippine impacts.
 * Odette - 0.5% - Not really.
 * Paolo - 0% - Missed the Philippines.
 * Quedan - 0% - See Paolo.
 * Ramil - 0% - Nope.
 * Santi - 10% - 13 deaths make it an unlikely retirement candidate, since the Philippines has seen much worse.
 * Tino - 0% - No.

Labuyo has been retired due to its damage total. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

So we know that if a storm makes more than1 billion in damage and kill more than 300 lives is going to be retire.Now we know which ones are going out of the list.Allanjeffs 15:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not surprised it was retired, but I'm not sure if Utor itself will be retired. Sometimes a storms PAGASA name is retired but the JMA name stays, like Frank (Fengshen) in 2008, or many of the tropical storms in 2011 (except for Washi, which was retired by both PAGASA and JMA). Ryan1000 15:36, August 23, 2013 (UTC)