Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Open Atlantic
Another new one associated with a tropical wave at 10/20. Development is a bit doubtful before it interacts with upper-level winds by the weekend. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Just archived July here and in the other forums, but the ATL is still sleeping right now. It'll pick up a bit later, just not this moment. Ryan1000 03:58, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now down to 10/10. I doubt this one would form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:04, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0. Still on the TWO though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 20:01, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Slightly Southwest of Where Emily Formed
A new AOI has popped up in the gulf. This AOI is only at 10/10, and though it probably won't become anything, I'm not discounting it after Emily formed so quickly in almost the same location. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:22, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 0/0, but like the AOI above, it is also still on the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!- 70.190.5.175 20:01, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

The Atlantic is sleeping again, but it should not sleep for much longer. It is likely that activity will explode after mid-August, and just having TSs that don't do much by this point in the year is common. In fact I think the season has been quite active so far, as many seasons (like 2004 and 2009 and many in the 20th century) were really inactive at the beginning (but many would end up very active, like 2004). For those new here, just having a lot of TSs that don't do much (or not much activity overall) by early August does not usually mean a pathetic season overall. Last year had its first in-season hurricane and second hurricane overall (at the "E" storm) form on this day after a dead July, and that season still got very active. 2015 was going pathetically, with only 3 TSs by this point (but it would end up as a near-average season). The best analogs to this season would be 2011 (whose 5th named storm formed today and had 8 TSs to start the season off before exploding) and 2006 (not counting Zeta, 4 TSs formed by this point in the year before the season exploded at the end of August and September; the season was still overall near-average though). Even 2010 and 2012 could be considered as analogs if not for Alex's and Chris' strength, as we are talking about all TSs by this point of the year. But beware, 2013 was also a good analog to this year (with 4 TSs compared to the 5 TSs and 1 TD so far this year, and both seasons had early MDR formations), and we know how that season turned out. No one knows how the current season will eventually turn out, but my gut feeling says an active season like last year is a good possibility. Let's just hope 2013 does not repeat itself this year. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:41, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging off Africa
Just after I wrote the above, I checked NHC to see a 10/30 tropical wave emerging off Africa. I think this is more likely to be a named storm than the other recent waves that popped up on the TWO (such as the 10/20 one that died out earlier). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:52, August 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Both the GFS and the Euro are already on board with this AOI. Although they don't expect this to become a particularly big storm (in size), they do make it a hurricane in the long run, the GFS taking it into the northeastern U.S, particularly Nantucket Island and Massachusetts, while the Euro moves it into the upper Lessers (Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico) before dying over Hispaniola. However, if the Euro's scenario pans out, this may need to be watched closer, because Irene of 2011 was also forecast to move over Hispaniola and die out, but it instead skipped north of the island and hit the U.S. east coast. While this is all still very far out, the Atlantic may definitely be kicking up again, starting with this wave. Ryan1000 02:50, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50. This is looking to be a Cape Verde-type hurricane in the coming days/weeks. Here comes Franklin (I hope). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:16, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is most definitely going to be Franklin. Unfortunately, this could be a bad storm. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:36, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/60. The Euro has backed off on this system with their latest run, instead showing a different storm forming in the BoC in a week, but the new run of the GFS takes this into Savannah, GA as a formidable major hurricane in the long run. If conditions remain favorable for this storm, it'll probably end up being a furious and compact, but intense, storm, and if the GFS does get this one accurate (unlike the AOI after TD 4 that they hyped early last month), then the U.S. might not get lucky from Franklin-to-be. Ryan1000 13:54, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
It's now been invested. 12Z GFS run now takes this recurving from the U.S. east coast into Atlantic Canada, but this is still a long ways out. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:41, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Things don't seem to be looking good with this - and could be our first hurricane of the season I think. Hopefully conditions will permit and we will get ourselves a pretty long lived fish storm to track across the Atlantic that doesn't bother anyone. Owen 18:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/70. I believe this will become Franklin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:24, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This thing just jumped to 40/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:48, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am really hoping that this is a fishspinner like Owen said. We do not need a devastating east coast hurricane. I have a feeling this will be Franklin and the Caribbean wave be Gert. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:51, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
We have ourselves another area to watch. I think the race to become Franklin is definitely on, with an edge for 99L currently. This newly invested area is something models have been picking up on in the Caribbean and Bay of Campeche and could be a potent threat considering conditions have been becoming much more favorable in the Caribbean. Owen 18:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at 10/20 on the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 20/40. This may become Gert. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:48, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be something like Harvey (2011) or Earl from last year. I'm calling it, this will be Gert. It better not be anything destructive. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:55, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/50. This has a shot of becoming Gert. Hi!-68.106.0.77 06:08, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements. Andros 1337 (talk) 04:34, June 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 10% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 25% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, 0.01% , 1% , 5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 25% , 30% , 35% , 40% , 45% , 50% , 55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS.  T G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#889">0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Opinions
(Retirement colors: <font color="#006">-∞% , <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) '''

Notes:
 * A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
 * The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower, since it's way too obvious that they won't be retired.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

Retirement predictions and grades begin here:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Gets a lot of grading credit for its impressive and unusual formation in April. If this occurred at a typical time of year, the grade would have been MUCH lower. Stayed out to sea, so no retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#F00">F  - Struck a somewhat unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect); both the deaths and location could up the retirement chance a tad bit. Its unusual location for June saves the storm's grade from being lower than what I gave. Still a fail though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#0F0">20%, <font color="#F80">D+ - Caused plenty of flooding in the Midwest and the Gulf region around Texas/Louisiana as well as 3 deaths (2 direct,1 indirect). Full damage totals aren't out yet as of the time I typed this, but the U.S. has been through MUCH worse tropical storms (like Allison 2001 for example). Chances could go up or down from 20% after I see released damage tolls.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">F-   - Failed to redeem itself after 2011. Call me crazy for giving 25% to a failure, but the usage of the name garnered negative media attention and I'd give a 1/4 chance that this will receive the Isis, Adolph, etc treatment and be retired. The chance could be even higher, but this type of retirement has never occurred in the Atlantic, plus the NHC clarified the name is supposed to have no relationship to Trump. A 50 mph peak prevents this from getting the Z grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily :  <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

50% or more=italics

That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022.
 * Cindy - 10% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 5% - 1.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Owen's Retirement Opinions

 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 20% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists.

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

My turn!

Arlene -0% Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.

Bret -1% Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.

Cindy -20% Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.

Don -25% Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons.

Emily Currently active

Leeboy100 Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)