User blog:STO12/2013 Season

What are we to expect for the rest of the 2013 season? The Atlantic is expected to ruffle up quite a few named storms this year. But where and when are they going to show up? Looking at data from last year's season, I've accumulated some hints of what the 2013 season may look like.

ATLANTIC BASIN 2013

Pre-season to June - The formation of Alberto and Beryl in May from last year I think were just a rare coincidence. Sure it makes it seem sort of likely we'd see it in the next season, but it was just a thing for that season. 2013 hasn't given us any pre-season storms, so named storms might come on a little later in the season. Because of this June racked up only two named storms, Andrea and Barry. Last year in 2012, we had our third and fourth named storms of the season, Chris and Debby, forming right after each other. In 2013 only our first and second named storm appeared in June, which means named storm activity should cluster in August and early September.

July - In 2012, the entire month of July was quiet, no activity (with the exceptions of some straggling tropical disturbances). The fifth named storm of the season (Ernesto) didn't form until the very first day of August. This gives a hint that maybe we would see our third named storm in mid to late July. Neighboring seasons are usually quite different from each other, sometimes complete opposites. I think that July is an opposite from last year, as we saw our third named storm in early into mid July. Tropical Storm Chantal had the potential to become our first hurricane before making landfall in Hispaniola like anticipated. Instead, Chantal dissipated south of eastern Cuba. This was most likely caused by a new round of unfavorable conditions by strong wind shear and dry air. As we can currently see in late July, dry air is destroying any development that is trying to exist from the coast of Africa. Africa is our main sector for tropical waves, with that out of the picture, development in July is most likely to only be Chantal for 2013.

August - Activity usually always rapidly increases in the month of August. We typically don't see our THIRD named storm until August with the seasonal average from the 1960's to now. We had our third named storm in early to mid July, so 2013 is already technically above the average pace. It certainly isn't an early storm maker like 2005 or 2012, but it's better then not seeing our first named storm until August like past storms have. The year 2000 didn't see its first named storm (Hurricane Alberto) until August, and that season went all the way to its N named storm, Nadine. In 2012, we saw a large increase in storm activity in August. 2012 had its E through L storms just in the month of August. So there's nothing to worry about with 2013. We could possibly see Dorian through Humberto before September starts.