Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC)

Future start
Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC
 * We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC)

And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC)

I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC)

Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC)

Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC)

1st CSU Forecast
Here it is! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over the Yucatan
This is an incredible system. It has model support! It will likely hit Florida in 5-7 days and it may have a brief chance to develop into a subtropical storm in the BoC in a few days. Yqt1001 02:49, February 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it forms.-- Cy10 -- 03:12, February 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah I have been tracking this AOI since the start of this week hopefully we will get Alberto from this it would be incredible.Allanjeffs 05:49, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Well it has about 40-50 kt shear over it right now :S &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:30, February 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Consolidated well last night. Has a nice area of deep convection...if it wasn't for the shear, it probably would develop. Yqt1001 16:28, February 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not that surprised it's not developing; shear at this time of year is just too harsh for development. The window of opportunity for this to become Alberto, if any, is small. Ryan1000 18:05, February 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Anyways it has a small possibility any possibility even if it is small could make the AOI to develop .Allanjeffs 19:18, February 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Anyone have thoughts on the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm? This is a truly amazing event! Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  19:39, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

NHC say this will dissipate on Wednesday. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:53, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

The system has 850 Vort and shear has dropped considerably since yesterday we still could have Alberto of this AOI.Allanjeffs 15:02, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
And its now an invest! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:34, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

We have a shot of having Alberto people Hurricane season may start early.Allanjeffs 16:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Beat me to it...ah well. It has a chance to be the first storm of the season, and first February storm in 60 years. This is incredible already. Ryan1000 17:03, February 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * And even into the post season, my streak of posting about AOIs that become invests continues! I'm amazed that it achieved invest status though, but go Alberto! I want to see this! :D Yqt1001 17:21, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Nice looking, though the models still don't do much with it. They take it to minimal TS strength into Florida and then kill it. But if it becomes Alberto, we'll already make history in 2012. Ryan1000 21:01, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * OMG!!! I CAN'T BELIEVE WE COULD BE GETTING A FEBRUARY STORM!!! Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:39, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

STWO out – 30%. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:55, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

you beat me anyway we have 30% of having Alberto and chances are increasing.Allanjeffs 23:58, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Well most of the cloud has dissipated from the system, however, we should start seeing more bubbling up tomorrow. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well this is interesting. Didn't expect to be talking about an invest in early February! As warm as it's been though, it almost doesn't surprise me. In fact I was joking about it the other day, saying the season may start in April if this warm weather keeps up lol. It's got a nice circulation but non of the models develop it and shower activity has diminished. I'm sorry I completely forgot about the Hall of Fame! I got tied up with finals, then frantic Christmas shopping, then I went on vacation. I just forgot all about it. If you guys are game, we can go ahead and start right now. I'll go ahead and post the Pool of Twenty on the Hall of Fame page. Sorry again, guys. I have a bad habit of abandoning you come winter time! -- SkyFury 05:21, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Well it looks like we won't be getting a cyclone now. Down to 0%. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:25, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Oh, well. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  13:11, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * You mean NEAR 0% Kiewii. But yeah, it's not happening. Probably the closest we've been to a February cyclone in a long time! 216.211.56.100 13:28, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gah, it was so close, but now i'm pretty sure it missed it's chance to become Alberto. If that shear was a little bit lighter this would have been named easily. And Eric, you don't need to worry about "abandoning us" anymore. Check my user page. Im an official now. =) Anyways, yeah, i'd like to start the hall of fame thing whenever you wish to begin it, but if you have other things to do, don't worry. I'll be around for most of the year. Ryan1000 15:03, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * 216, I do not care. Technically, near 0% IS 0%. Duh. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * I've posted the Pool of Twenty candidates on the Hall of Fame page. We're ready to go. You are free to decide which one's you think should be among the ten finalists and which ones you think don't make the cut. You are welcome to suggest other candidates, but keep in mind that there are 86 (!!) storms that are already in. I'll try and get the current members posted sometime in the near future so you guys know who the Hall of Famers are and can better judge potential candidates that I may have missed. -- SkyFury 06:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

2nd CSU Forecast
It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

A link is here. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC)

There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Near Bermuda
Models are liking the setup for a Sean&Ana like formation early next week. If the models keep it up over the next few days we will for sure be seeing something try to develop there. A bit to early to confirm any development. We can watch though! Yqt1001 20:02, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

It would cool to see Alberto forming In April but if I remember correctly most of El NIÑO years Atlantic storms form earlier than other years but, when we are near ASO months the Atlantic shut early so that is why er don`t get a lot storms in this type of years.Allanjeffs 20:43, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

Only two storms have ever formed in April in the history of the Atlantic, but there are some models picking up on possible development. Aside from that, the midwest, including parts of Michigan where I live, got a bitter wake-up call this morning with a very damaging freeze last night. Damage to the crop industry was over 2 billion dollars. Back to this, it looks like it will remain a fish even if it does develop, but it's worth watching. Ryan1000 23:13, April 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Models have this developing in about 54 hours, with the low itself developing 24 hours from now. Very quick development the models want. Yqt1001 16:08, April 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wow now all the models are developing this system into Alberto I give it 80% of happening never I have seen the models so happy with an off-season system.Allanjeffs 19:09, April 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is a good chance it may become SUBTROPICAL (not exactly tropical) storm Alberto in the next 36 hours, but keep in mind it has a frontal nature and it's over rather cold, bitter waters. Don't be certain this will develop yet. It has a good chance, but as of now, i'm thinking it's more 50/50 than anything else. It could get right on it now and become Albero asap, or it could stay frontal and not develop at all. We'll see what happens. NHC is always picky when it comes to upgrading storms, and if anything, it won't be invested and jump straight to subtropical Alberto if it does want to develop. Ryan1000 20:34, April 15, 2012 (UTC)

The surface low that may become Alberto has formed. Yqt1001 00:37, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

I think this thing will stay as a frontal system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:06, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

Dr master talk to two hurricane specialist and look what they answer:Talked to two of them today here in Ponte Verda Beach. They already have a rotation schedule worked out in case Alberto develops; some of them would have to go home early from the conference.Jeff Masters. so even the NHC is keeping an eye on this system so I think is going to develop. like I say I have never seen all the models so happy with an off-season system.Allanjeffs 03:10, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

I would by no means be surprised if this becomes Alberto, but even if it does, I won't expect more than tropical storm strength. I'm not expecting a hurricane or anything like that to come from this system, but it's worth watching until it dies. The great plains, in the meantime, have to worry about a very active tornado season, hopefully not as bad as last year, but over 200 twisters have been recorded thus far this year. Ryan1000 04:08, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

If it does become subtropical or tropical, it will be named immediately. OPC are saying it has gales, and developing storm force winds (50 kt+). However, they keep the fronts on this storm. The north and northwest quadrants of the storm have 25-35 kt winds at the moment. This low should not be mentioned in the NHC TWD since it isn't in their area of responsibility. This low is currently at 33N 48W. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:02, April 16, 2012 (UTC)


 * It has 2 fronts attached to it still, so it isn't there yet. However should be invested sometime today. Will be interesting to see if this can pull off the feat of developing. As it is right now it's fairly far north in cold but not record cold temperatures. EDIT: Cyclonephase diagrams show it becoming shallow warm core sometime tomorrow. Yqt1001 12:38, April 16, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hmmm, I don't know. Windstorm Madeleine will continue to strengthen rapidly and move southeastwards, so the fronts may still hang on. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:52, April 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * If it wants to develop, it will likely just go straight to Alberto. It might be invested, but if it is, I don't expect it to spend much time as an invest before it becomes Alberto, and it will also be only the third April storm to exist, and possibly only the second tropical storm in the month. As of now, though, this thing is looking good. I'd be surprised if it's not invested or a depression at least, but it's worth watching. Ryan1000 22:20, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested. Still extratropical, has to hurry up, maybe a day until it runs out of time. Yqt1001 19:01, April 17, 2012 (UTC)

I think this thing has missed it's chance to become Alberto, but, if it does become Alberto, it will likely be only brief. Ryan1000 21:04, April 17, 2012 (UTC)

Seems like it did miss it's chance...91L has started weakening :( Cy10  E-Mail  00:01, April 19, 2012 (UTC)

It's gone. D: Cy10  E-Mail  00:31, April 21, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not surprised it didn't become Alberto; given the conditions 91L was in, it had only a small window of oportunity to develop, and it didn't happen. It didn't have much of a chance. Alberto will have to wait. Ryan1000 22:32, April 21, 2012 (UTC)

With what the GFS is showing we could hve Alberto by the next or next next week. :)

--Allanjeffs 20:59, May 9, 2012 (UTC)

Well, aside from the silence here on the forums, the hurricane reanalysis project has successfully completed the 1931 to 1935 Atlantic hurricane seasons. With them, they upgraded the 1931 Belize hurricane to a Cat. 4 upon its landfall in Belize, the 1932 Texas and San Ciprian Hurricanes were upped a bit in strength, the 1932 Cuba hurricane to a 175 mph Category 5, two storms in 1933 to Category 5's, the 1935 Labor day hurricane was found to have hit with 190 mph winds and the so called "Yankee hurricane" of November 1935 was found to have hit Florida as a 105 mph category 2 hurricane. Looks like there are now SIX seasons with two or more category 5 storms. We missed quite a bit of data back then, I guess... Ryan1000 21:40, May 9, 2012 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
What do we have here? I spy with my little eye...a very tiny low prssure system in the vicinity of the azores which may become a 40 mph tropical storm later today! I guess now it's a race to see who will become named first: this thing or 90E in the East Pacific. If this thing misses it's chance, then Aletta's coming first. Ryan1000 13:48, May 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * What... Cyclone10 E-Mail  14:30, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * OMG this is so excitingAllanjeffs 15:14, May 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Not exactly the time of season for these systems to develop so I don't have my hopes to high. Not at least before Tuesday unless it pulls a Grace sometime today. Yqt1001 15:46, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looks like it will. Holy smokes, wtf is going on. YE Tropical Cyclone


 * Looking very nice now, still cold core though. :/ Link Yqt1001 17:34, May 12, 2012 (UTC)

Here it is! A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES {C {C SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM {C {C ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME {C {C POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE {C {C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM {C {C CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE {C {C DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2 STWOs at one time in mid-May (both 40% too). Not bad! Yqt1001 17:42, May 12, 2012 (UTC)

As I said above, this is a race to see who's going to be named first: Alberto or Aletta? We'll have to wait and see. The difference between this thing and 90E in the EPac is 90E has 2 days or so to develop (excluding today) until it succumbs to shear. This thing has to become Alberto later today or tomorrow or it'll be too late. It's a very tiny storm surrounded in a vastly larger extratropical cyclone. It has a very short clock to develop. The fact it jumped from not being on the two to a 40% invest is reason enough to say it's briefly exploding, but i'd say this thing has no more than 18 to 24 hours to become Alberto briefly before fading away. 90E has more than twice as much time to become Aletta. Ryan1000 18:41, May 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Just as quick as this little storm blew up it died. Yqt1001 21:10, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its not dead it is making a comeback.Allanjeffs 02:54, May 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * Probably not. It's down to 20%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:46, May 13, 2012 (UTC)

And now near 0%. Looks like 90E won the race after all. Alberto will have to come later. Ryan1000 00:59, May 15, 2012 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Sorry couldn`t put Ryan comment in the other section, anyway we have 93L and of all the invest in the Atlantic this year this is the one that has the best shot of becoming Alberto and it has until Monday to strength.Allanjeffs 15:47, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Up to 50%Allanjeffs 16:04, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * I didn't see this coming!-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:08, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE {C LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA {C HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND {C THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. {C ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD {C BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY {C SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A {C MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING {C THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Yqt1001 16:42, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

We should put the "May" header before 92L, not this thing, since that was the first invest in May. But yeah, this thing sprung up on us pretty quickly. Yesterday I saw nothing, now I see an area of low pressure which may become Alberto tomorrow. However, like 92L, this thing has a small circulation, so even a small increase in shear could knock it down. But unlike 92L, the conditions are conducive enough for it to develop for the next day or two, so it has a better chance to become named than 92L did. The EPac won the race either way, and 92E still has a chance to become Bud. If it does, the AOI behind it could become Carlotta. Ryan1000 18:13, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Nearing TS classification.Allanjeffs 19:17, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alberto
<p style="margin-left: 24px">And here it is TD 1 or Alberto don`t know which i<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;text-align:left;">nvest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren 19-May-2012 19:20 931Allanjeffs 19:26, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;text-align:left;">Alberto it is. AL, 01, 2012051918,, BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, TS, has the same wind speed as Aletta it may be stronger in terms of pressure as the day pass Allanjeffs 19:33, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">That was too fast...<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,Tahoma,Verdana;font-size:medium;line-height:normal;text-align:center;">ಠ_ಠ Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:35, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

That was really quick. But hey! Both the EPac and the ATL started early! Yqt1001 19:39, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * The storm will probably continue pressing a bit SW before trudging off northwards. Early start to the season! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:55, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Still not yet up on NHC. However, if it is confirmed by them, it would be the earliest start to any AHS in 9 years; Ana of 2003 formed a little earlier. On a more general scale, this is the 8th consecutive year in a row in which a storm (of any intensity) formed in the Atlantic in June or earlier. With Aletta's naming last week, there are only two EPac seasons since the start of the 21st century without any May storms (2011 and 2009). Ryan1000 20:15, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Thanks for the facts Ryan. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:20, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I would like to take this time to welcome back CobraStrike. :P Anyways, still not confirmed by NHC. Might start advisories at 5pm EDT though. Yqt1001 20:22, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

They should just give it TS strength now IMO. It's Alberto and they know it. NHC always has to be the last one to confirm the upgrades...Anyways, with some activity here, has anyone decided to check out the Hall of Fame? The canidates are on the page on the link at the top of this page, and they are open for anyone to choose. The current format is 20 storms entered a year, you pick your top 10 favorites, and then 5 of those 10 for the historical electorate (I left a message on Eric's page asking if he wanted to make it 10-5-3 insted, but he's not here right this moment). Ryan1000 20:27, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * I checked by the Hurricane Hall of Fame just now, and there's a lot of improvement versus when I last




 * saw it last year. Thanks for that tidbit! The image on the right shows Storm Relative Velocity radar image out of Wilmington, and shows a neat void of wind at the center of Alberto. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:35, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now it's confirmed by NHC. Hello Alberto and hello 2012 Atlantic hurricane season! Ryan1000 20:36, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * No watches or warnings just yet, but probably some coming up in the next few hours or even minutes. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:38, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Correction - there is actually a tropical storm watch for a small area covering generally the New York City area and its boroughs. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:42, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * ...FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA... Yqt1001 20:43, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * From Advisory 1 Disucssion: "THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL STORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS." CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:59, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC have corrected the graphics and have removed the TS watch for NYC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:58, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Welcome back Cobra Strike and the Atlantic may produce 14 t o16 name storms and Alberto may not be alone 92E is becoming better organized. Alberto may also pull a Gaston like 2004 and become a cat 1 hurricane . Allanjeffs 21:13, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * With Regards to what the NHC said, it's technically the second time it happened. 1992 had an unnamed subtropical storm form in April in the Atlantic and also featured the only off-season major hurricane and only storm known to exist in January and February, Ekeka, in EPac(Not to mention Hali also formed in March). If you don't consider that because it was technically CPac, it doesn't count, but I personally do consider this as the second time it happened. Ryan1000 21:22, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * 14 to 16 NS? Yeah right. Anyway, yeah, it is the second time this has happened.
 * The named storm forecasts for this seasons range from 11-15 storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:47, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

Update statement. Ship found winds up to 60 mph with a central pressure of 995 hPa. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:54, May 19, 2012 (UTC)

Alberto surpass the estimates its even stronger than Aletta in pressure and winds this could actually reach cat 1 strength.Allanjeffs 22:57, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Alberto is feeding off the Gulf Stream waters... I'm thinking it has a shot at hurricane strength. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:17, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Wow! Alberto took me by surprise! I think Alberto can become a hurricane. And welcome back, CS! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:51, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * And back down to 50 mph 998 mbar. Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:01, May 20, 2012 (UTC)

Speaking of early hurricanes...today is the 42nd anniversary of when Alma of 1970 became one. While I don't think Alberto will become one later today, if it does become one, it would be the 5th May hurricane to ever exist in the Atlantic, and the first one since Alma. If it hits the U.S. as a hurricane, it would be the earliest one to do so in recorded history, just days ahead of the 1908 May hurricane. Currently only tropical storm watches are up for parts of South Carolina. Ryan1000 10:49, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Alberto doesn't look as good as yesterday - the center of circulation is exposed right now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:51, May 20, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, it's succumbing to some wind shear now. It probrably won't become a hurricane, but still, it's cool to see this event while it lasts. Ryan1000 18:04, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Alberto re-developing convection and recon finding winds of 50 to 60 mph looks like is stroger than what we thought.Allanjeffs 19:21, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC said that the 50kt/60mph estimates were too high :( Kept at 40kts/45mph for the 5pm advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 21:44, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * He looks dead in satelite imagery.Allanjeffs 22:28, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * The watch was cancelled in SC, probably will pin it at TD in the next advisory. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:03, May 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Actually is down to 40 mph in the ATCF updates ,but the NHC doesn`t always go with the ATCF.Allanjeffs 00:52, May 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now officially 40 mph (AKA 35 kts). Regaining central convection but I doubt anything else will happen. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:03, May 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * There is an AOI in the Carribean.Allanjeffs 19:09, May 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'll make a section for that AOI. In regards to Alberto, I think it'll either dissipate tonight during diurnal min or tomorrow. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:46, May 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to TD <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">AL, 01, 2012052200,, BEST, 0, 307N, 771W, 30, 1008, TD<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">, 34, NEQ Allanjeffs 01:17, May 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Just wondering... where can you find the ATCF? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:31, May 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ . here it is .Allanjeffs 01:48, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Alberto
I'm surprised no one updated this until now, it's down to a TD and may die away soon. It was still cool to see it while it lasted. Ryan1000 10:29, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Its down and out.Allanjeffs 18:50, May 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * A short life expected, but it was nice to see it while it lasted (as everyone says) and it gave us a taste of our first pre-season storm in the ATL since 2008's Arthur. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:42, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alberto
No! Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:08, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm afraid so. Hat's off, Alberto. You made a great start to the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season! Ryan1000 20:49, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Western Caribbean
There is currently a large mass of disorganized shower activity in the Western Caribbean Sea, approximately situated 3/4s of the distance between the Yucatan Peninsula and Jamaica. Currently there is not much model support but it could turn into one of those monsoon depressions like Nicole a few years back did before ramming into Cuba. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:46, May 21, 2012 (UTC)

Agree and Alberto is still hanging at TS strength it will be awesome to have Beryl before june.Btw this AOI has really bring rain to the cayman islands there is report of flooding in there. Allanjeffs 20:59, May 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm looking at the current weather report out of the Cayman Islands (East end). There they've had 0.99" of rain but over in South Sound they got up to 5" of rain. The barometer reads 1012 mbar and is falling. At East End they're experiencing 10 mph winds but they've gotten gusts up to 40 mph (tropical storm strength) today. And for reference here's weather radar (from neighboring Cuba) for reference.CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:26, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Invested but I don't think it has a chance. Yqt1001 00:23, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe yesI think it will develop.Allanjeffs 00:34, May 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * It is situated in 20-30kt wind shear, but in my opinion there's a slim chance. The storm has been developing some sort of spin, but nothing considerable. In the Cayman Islands they're dealing with 5-10 mph constants, heavy tropical rains, and a min pressure of 1008 mbar. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Near 0%Allanjeffs 18:41, May 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * It has a lot of model support almost every model develop this into a TS near the US east coast.Allanjeffs 20:45, May 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * HWRF: While from models it is difficult to interpolate when a storm actually forms, it is believed that 94L reaches tropical storm strength shortly. In 24 hours the storm makes landfall in Cuba as a tropical storm with a pressure of 1004 mbar in Zapata Swamp. After moving past Florida and across the Atlantic, the tropical storm makes landfall in the Jacksonville, NC area as a tropical storm with a minimum pressure of 996 mbar. However after that the storm mainly parallels the North Carolina coast. When it reaches the Barrier Islands, it weakens into a depression, moves SE, and begins a loop. After re-strengthening into a tropical storm, the storm makes landfall in the afternoon of May 28 between Charleston, SC, and Georgetown, SC, with a pressure of 1000 mbar. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:20, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

Currently this is at near 0%, but I'm not sure about this one developing. We could see a TS from this one, but it's not likely to be strong or long-lived. Also, if this becomes Beryl, it's not looking very promising for it to exceed tropical storm strength. Beryl is currently one of only 3 ATL names that was used every year since the naming lists changed in 1979 but never used to name a hurricane; the other ones were Ana and Arthur. Erick is the only such storm in the EPac. Ryan1000 23:46, May 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Honestly, I'd give this a moderate chance (40-70% chance) of formation. I'd also give a moderate/good chance for impacts from this system, especially in the FL, GA, Carolinas area. Given that it already has winds up to gale force, I'd say that a named subtropical system is not out of the question. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:23, May 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now at 40% of development here comes Beryl people and now the NOAA predictions I think are for 15 name storms like I was saying.Allanjeffs 19:28, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * If El Nino were not to happen, we probably would've had a lonng year. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:45, May 24, 2012 (UTC)

60%, first red circle of the 2012 ATL season! I could see this developing now. :P Yqt1001 00:44, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

nearing TS status shortly to tell you I told you so you didn`t believe this was going to develop Yqt1001 :pAllanjeffs 00:54, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * TBH I have somewhat of an all-or-nothing attitude about this invest; become either Hurricane Beryl or TD 2, but not in between. I want to see the former for once :P Otherwise I'd be perfectly happy to see this thing become a TS (especially the second pre-season one... hasn't happened in 104 years!) --HurricaneMaker99 01:40, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * It has already winds of a ts so it will skip td status.Allanjeffs 01:56, May 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Don't get your hopes up. There's little chance for this to become anything other than a rainmaker... if that. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:05, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm thinking we will have a strong TS. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:16, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 70% CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 11:14, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

80%. Yqt1001 20:57, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah, we're gonna see Beryl. This will not only be the first time since 1908 to have two pre-season storms in ATL and first since 1887 to have two May storms in ATL, but this will also be the first time to have two storms form in May in both the EPac and ATL in one season. 2007 would have done that had Barry developed one day earlier. Ryan1000 21:12, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah I knew it anyways I think it will peak at moderate to strong tropical storm even minimal hurricane is not out of the question;).Allanjeffs 21:23, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

Looking at the models, it seems that future Beryl could see a rare landfall in the GA/NE FL area. Here's my take on the 5 day forecast for this system: <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:17, May 25, 2012 (UTC) {C {C

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Looks reasonable, except I think it will brush the coastline more than make landfall. Either that, or briefly make landfall like Gabrielle in 2007. Ryan1000 22:56, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Unusual track. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">AL, 94, 2012052600,, BEST, 0, 323N, 749W, 40, 1001<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">, LO, 34, NEQ, 80, 120, 0, 0, 1012, 130, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, It has already a lower pressure and 45 mph winds just shy of being Beryl.Allanjeffs 00:28, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Near 100%! Beryl is coming very shortly! Yqt1001 00:51, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I seriously don't know why it isn't Beryl now. Ryan1000 00:57, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I knew Beryl will come.Allanjeffs 01:03, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

NHC is not officially calling it Beryl yet because the system needs to show persistence... hence the waiting period. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:35, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al022012.ren WE HAVE Beryl people this is not a joke beryl is here.Allanjeffs 02:18, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Beryl
On RBT! It's here folks! 2 May storms! First time in over a century! Yqt1001 01:53, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

True I am so happy that we are ahead of 2005 for like a month maybe this season can get to the greeks as 2005 this year is neutral.Allanjeffs 02:24, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * The question is whether its tropical or subtropical, as RBT still has the designator "LO". Most model outputs put this storm as a shallow system and the satellite presentation of the storm looks somewhat characteristic of other subtropical cyclones in recent memory, and the formation of the system seems so "classic" of subtropical cyclone formation. Still, because of my lagging experience with subtropical systems, I hesitate in saying this is subtropical. And for the record, the formation of two systems in May in this area of the basin is more random than it is being a harbinger of an active season. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:29, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah I know but still:) and i think is tropical I may be wrong anyway.Allanjeffs 02:34, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now it's finally confirmed by NHC. It's strange to see this kind of activity this early in the season, but Allan, the early-season activity of this year does not imply 2012 will keep going at this rate. 1968 had 3 storms (including 2 hurricanes) form in June, but the season ended with only 8 storms and no major hurricanes. 2010's PHS had an astonishing start to the season with the catastrophe from Agatha and rareness of Celia, but despite a record active start, it had a record-dead total. Oh and NHC says Beryl is subtropical, not tropical. It'll probrably be classified as tropical by later today. Ryan1000 02:43, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Unless of course... if the early May storms happened in the Caribbean (or hell, even MDR Atlantic), then you are talking about an active season. East coast cyclones, like Alberto and Beryl, are random instances, as proven by the countless early-season and preseason cyclones in that region of the world (TD1 09, SS Andrea in the past few years). And anyway, NHC seems to quite like my forecast. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:47, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is extraordinarily rare...I never anticipated to see something like this. The last time we had two storms form in May was in 1887, and the last time we had two pre-season storms altogether was 1908. And Beryl may even become a hurricane, though a moderate/strong TS sounds more reasonable. It's temporarily heading north at 8 mph with 45 mph winds, but I don't think that will last long. Beryl appears to be heading for Jacksonville, which, although very vulnerable to powerful hurricanes, wasn't hit with one directly since Dora of 1964. IMO that city is an Andrew or even Katrina-like disaster waiting to happen. Ryan1000 02:57, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * I actually disagree. I think Beryl is going to take its sweet time to become tropical. I was slightly perplexed earlier why all the models depicted a slow transition to a more warm core cyclone, but the NHC discussion sheds light on the reason why. Now that the NHC considers it ST, I agree with their reasoning with it taking a while in tropical transition. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:57, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is some shear from a nearby low that will hinder intensification, but it's not enough to kill it off. It'll probrably reach the first coast of Florida as a moderate to strong TS, possibly 60 to 70 mph. Ryan1000 03:01, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * I agree with Ryan it will probably peak from 60 to 75 mph.Allanjeffs 03:38, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * So that's 2 named storms in the ATL so far! I hope that Beryl will pour out just enough rain in the Georgia Florida region to relieve the persistent drought there. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 11:46, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * I honestly believe Beryl will peak at 50 kts because of the fact that it is still subtropical and it will take a while for it to develop tropical features, which will hinder much intensification. There is also dry air hindering the system to the east and southeast. Plus, convection has waned in the past few hours. Another note: 06z intensity forecasts from the models don't even take it to 50 kts, or anywhere near that. These are my reasons for justifying my prediction that Beryl won't be that intense later on. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 11:54, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not expected to become a hurricane on the NHC forecast, but that's not out of the question. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:12, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Honestly I don't think it will be a hurricane, because right one it doesn't have much convection and there is shear and it is subtropical. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 12:15, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Now it doesn't quite look the part; it's center is exposed and it's still not in the best conditions. However, it is, on the flip side, slowing down, so it will take longer to reach the coastline. The unfavorable conditions may abate in the future, but i'm not too sure as of now. Ryan1000 12:21, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * The water vapor image of Beryl looks almost exactly the same as one of Andrea 2007. Currently Beryl is trying to block off the dry air that is getting into it. In addition, compare Beryl's Water Vapor Formation Loop with Andrea's Water Vapor Formation Loop . CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:55, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Most of the models think Beryl will weaken a little soon and then, about 2-3 days from now, they see it jumping up in intensity as the unfavorable conditions abate from the circulation. However, if Beryl reaches the coastline by then, it will be too late for her to become a hurricane (which I don't think we'll see anyways). Ryan1000 14:33, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * That jump of intensity is after the landfall. The strength of Beryl as it reemerges in the Atlantic is dependent on how well it maintains is inner structure as it is inland for a few hours, which I'm slightly doubtful of. Because of the subtropical nature of the storm, dry air intrusion, and suboptimal SST's where Beryl is estimated to transition to a tropical system, there is very very little chance of this becoming anywhere close to hurricane status at any point in its life. At the very most, Beryl could become a strong tropical storm, but even that improbable, given current conditions. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 14:58, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Currently Beryl isn't packing much. Link CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:19, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think that she will peak at 65 mph.Allanjeffs 15:22, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Ah, I see. Missed the timing. I don't think it'll become one after landfall because it doesn't have much of a chance of surviving the landfall itself; there's too much dry air. It'll likely be a depression when it moves inland a bit. I think land interction will likely hinder Beryl from getting past 60-65 mph, but I don't think we'll see Hurricane Beryl, if anything. Ryan1000 16:10, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Based on the latest satellite imagery, it appears Beryl is just beginning its conversion into tropical status. However I think it will have a really hard time becoming fully tropical before it solves the problem of dry air. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 17:15, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

So... recon is currently en route into Beryl. The recon is still a ways to go. In the mean time the latest images reveal that convection is starting to stack at the center of Beryl, so the tropical conversion phase is well underway. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:39, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * As the recon flies in and around Beryl, the storm continues to look better on satellite imagery. A recent flare up of storms and tightened wrapping is helping to pinch off the dry air which has been causing problems for Beryl. In additon it appears from data that it is almost, if not already, a tropical system. Recently the recon found pressures of 999 mbar (which was taken into account in NHC Advisory #4) and their SFMR instrument recorded peak 42.2 kt winds . Beryl appears to be strengthening. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:24, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

It will be interacting with land soon, and the latest forecast doesn't take Beryl emerging off the coast until it reaches North Carolina, so it's not looking too promising we will see this thing survive for long after it heads inland. It might become tropical before it makes landfall, but not very strong either way. Ryan1000 22:29, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now down to 998 hPa and seems to be dropping more. Beryl is definitely strengthening. On a related note, Beryl's satellite presentation has improved markedly over the past few hours, with the dry air that was intruding the system slowly getting cut off. Plus, Beryl is entering into warmer parts of the Gulf Stream, and in a few hours will enter an area of even warmer SST's. Beryl's future is now looking less bleak. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:32, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * The recon is at the center of Beryl right now and is in calm winds but with a pressure of 997 hPa. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:36, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * In addition, although its satellite presentation is looking better, its presentation in infrared shows that Beryl remains a shallow system. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:54, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * I say 65 to 70 mph at peak intensity.Allanjeffs 23:48, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * 50mph pressure 998 the new advisory.Allanjeffs 23:51, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Hey, lookie here! Maybe hurricane status isn't out of the question after all! Beryl still has to rebuild a lot of convection that was lost from that dry air, but it's slow movement means it probrably won't reach Florida until Monday, so it has some time to rebuild. Maybe the records I mentioned earlier aren't impossible to happen after all. Ryan1000 00:50, May 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pressure's unchanged but the winds are up to 60 mph with the new advisory. Due to become tropical by the end of the day. --HurricaneMaker99 15:06, May 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Actually, HM99, given Beryl's structure, there is a good chance it may remain subtropcal even when it makes landfall. I still don't see enough tropical charicteristics from this for it to be reclassified as a tropical storm, but then again, interaction with land might bring it to TS classification, like it did with Olga of 2007. I don't think Beryl will have much of a chance of surviving past North Carolna after moving inland, but even if it does, it will be rapidly dying away as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 17:53, May 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, as soon as you said that...

Tropical Storm Beryl
...this happened. :P 65 mph/997 mbar per the interim advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 17:58, May 27, 2012 (UTC)

she is strengthening looks that hurricane intensity is not out of the question.Allanjeffs 18:15, May 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Dang. I always think this will happen, then I become conservative and change my mind, and the first thing I said earlier was right. Same thing happened with what I said about Washi of last year. At first I thought Washi would be a re-Durian in terms of impacts (mainly death toll), then I said it wouldn't be so bad, and look what ends up happening...Anyways, I did mention Beryl could have been the earliest hurricane to hit the United States in recorded history if it became one (surpassing storm two of 1908), and now it's not impossible to happen. Ryan1000 18:36, May 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * You aren't alone Ryan. Last night I changed my WPTC bet to 60kts and then thought about it and put it back down to 50kts...Radar suggests that this already may be 65kts. :/ Yqt1001 20:26, May 27, 2012 (UTC)

New advisory pegs Beryl at 65 mph with a slight pressure drop to 996 mbar. NHC says: "SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL." I have a feeling that Beryl will be a strong TS operationally, and then upgraded to a minimal hurricane in post-analysis. That's happened with several storms over the past decade; Erika in 2003, Gaston in 2004, Cindy in 2005, Karen in 2007, and most recently, Nate from last year. --HurricaneMaker99 20:50, May 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Recon goes in a bit...still probably 20nm from the center. 65kts flight level winds and 1005mb sfc pressure. This might be a bit more intense than we all thought... Yqt1001 21:16, May 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * I was thinking it was going to go tropical earlier, but it has anyways.... CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:44, May 27, 2012 (UTC)

First pass through the eye....62kts and 993mb. We probably have a hurricane on our hands. Not good for Florida since landfall is only 6 hours away... Yqt1001 22:09, May 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Makes me wonder - if Beryl is indeed a hurricane - whether or not NHC will make last-minute changes to the TC watches & warnings in effect... --HurricaneMaker99 22:36, May 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if it will be one just yet, but it would be the first "Hurricane" Beryl if it does so (congrats in the betting pools, HM99), and, if you discount Hurricane Alice and Hurricane one of 1908 in March, it would also be the earliest Atlantic Basin landfalling hurricane, let alone for the U.S. Ryan1000 23:18, May 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * If Beryl is a hurricane I will have shot her intensity that is what I say it will peak the first time.Allanjeffs 23:41, May 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * The eyewall is almost complete! Next advisory should be 70 mph (60 kt) CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:42, May 27, 2012 (UTC)

So close. 8pm; 992mb and 70mph... Yqt1001 23:49, May 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Beryl is being a bit slow and is sort of stalling. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:14, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * We can have a hurricane at any moment base on the reading they are finding.Allanjeffs 00:26, May 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * base on ATCF Beryl is not upgrade into a hurricane and it looks like our next possible player is to the west of Nicaragua and Honduras.Allanjeffs 00:38, May 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Jacksonville is right in the center of the "eyewall" in Beryl. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:49, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * No upgrade, no upgrade, no upgrade at all. Well, at least not until post-season, which I place limited hopes on, but still, an upgrade post-season is possible. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:45, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think Beryl will be upgrade in post-analysis.Allanjeffs 02:56, May 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * If it's not upgraded in post-season, there is still one last advisory until Beryl moves onshore. It may be upgraded to a hurricane in the next three hours before it comes ashore. The eye hasn't yet crossed the coast, but it's close, and Beryl may have missed it's chance. I'm not gonna put that out yet. Ryan1000 03:01, May 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * I don't think it'll be upgraded. It's interacting with land and the continental shelf. The storms are also shallowing out. Personally I see that the 70 mph and 993 mbar statistics suggested in the 11:00 advisory is the max. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:03, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Well, it is 20 miles from the coastline, so there might be one last chance for it to go up before it makes landfall, but we'll see. Ryan1000 03:06, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wont get upgraded operationally. Post-season likely though. Yqt1001 03:18, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

Right now, there's no chance of Beryl becoming any stronger than it is due to its massive size causing land interaction and cooler waters along the coast. This is as strong as its gonna get, and there are some indications suggesting that it is weakening. There was 1/2 chances of it being upgraded, but now they're gone. The NHC in the disc pointed out a great reason why the anomalous FL reading did not lead them to upgrade it to a hurricane, no matter how much some of us (not me) want it to become a hurricane. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 03:19, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think Beryl will strengthen. It is too close to land to do so. I think 70 mph will be her peak. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:20, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Does anyone think that Beryl will go extratropical while over land? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:27, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I have a feeling that Beryl will be upgrade into a hurricane remember when most thought that nate only has a 0 to 5 % chance of being upgrade and the NHC did it anyway I read what they said in Beryl discussion but I feel it will be upgrade.Allanjeffs 03:37, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

Eh, makes sense now. I don't think it will be upgraded in post-season anyways; there wasn't enough to prove it was a hurricane before IMO. I thought it had one last chance, but now it's not looking like it's gonna happen. Beryl apparently will stay as one of only 3 ATL storms to never become a hurricane every time it was used since 1979, with the others being Ana and Arthur, along with Erick in EPac. Ryan1000 03:57, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;text-align:-webkit-left;">.BERYL MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEACH make landfall in Florida the first storm of 2012 in the atlantic to do it.Allanjeffs 04:21, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

Officially the first U.S. landfalling storm. Should be causing lots of rain and wind problems. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:31, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Still producing 40 mph winds in inland Florida, a few miles NE of Lake City, FLA. It should begin it's shift to the north and then northeast anytime now. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:04, May 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Like you said earlier, CobraStrike, this storm may dissipate over land and not regenerate over water. And Andrew, Beryl is actually going to be pretty helpful to the folks in Florida and Georgia. They are in a severe drought right now and they could use some rain from Beryl. It probrably won't be a very destructive storm because it wasn't too powerful, but flooding in Jacksonville might be a problem, so it still could cause millions of dollars in damage. Ryan1000 14:16, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Beryl
Downgraded to a TD as Beryl moves across the Florida/Georgia border. The strongest storms in Beryl remain to its eastern portion and some spiral bands to the south, which have been causing heavy tropical downpours. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:24, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

All watches have been discontinued, but there are still many hazards, such as the rain, although it'll help the drought conditions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:32, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Beryl will probrably die sometime later today or tomorrow. I don't think it will survive much longer overland. Ryan1000 19:33, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * I concur. However, the NHC's probabalistic chance for dissipation while over land seems a bit lower than what I would think. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:47, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

Advisory #12 brings it down to 30 mph (25 kt) and it remains a tropical system. It's radar signature remains intact, with strong squalls in its SW and SE quadrants. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:26, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * It will probably survive or regenerate in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 22:48, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well, it won't traverse over treacherous terrain, so I think for me there is a 60% chance of staying intact, 25% chance of regen, and 15% chance of dissipation. The funny thing though is that the Satellite Services Department of the NOAA dropped their floater images of Beryl, so you'll have to find regional floaters. :P CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:24, May 29, 2012 (UTC)

Advisory 13 just out with the same intensity. Discussion noted that "as long as it maintains its deep convection...Beryl is anticipated to remain a tropical depression for the next 36 hours." CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:03, May 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The fact Beryl can't fuel herself because she's not over water means she may still die out before emerging off of the Carolinas in the next two days. I Still don't have my hopes on her surviving for long. Ryan1000 03:52, May 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">She will survive all the way until she reach the Atlantic and become extratropical because she is pretty much intact.Allanjeffs 16:47, May 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Beryk have already kill two in Cuba and they are two misssing in Florida.Allanjeffs 17:06, May 29, 2012 (UTC)

Ay, I don't know how it's able to survive so long over land and not die, even over the terrain it's over. It's not as severe as I once thought it could be, but although it killed a few people, it has really helped the drought in the southeast, in some areas, a bit to much though. Flooding is a concern in a few areas of Florida and Georgia. Ryan1000 21:31, May 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * Beryl is expected to return back to the coast 2 PM EDT tomorrow. In addition, in the end, places in the Florida Panhandle would have had more than 10" of rain fall because of Beryl in total. --CobraStrike  (t)(b)(c) 21:55, May 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry I've been absent for what has been an incredible May in the tropics. Two storms in May?! Incredible. My May has been about as crazy, and as such I have neglected the forums (it's a little early, after all lol). This has certainly been an auspicious start to the season. I flew back from a 10 day vacation in London today and was worried about Beryl's remants causing problems as we landed in Atlanta but it turned out not to be so bad. What a crazy, wacky month. Hopefully the season will hold off enough for us to make some progress on Hall of Fame voting. I tried to start it up in February but everyone except Ryan seemed to have gone in hibernation mode for the offseason. But it certainly looks like we're in for an exciting summer. -- SkyFury 23:57, May 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hello Eric! You missed a bunch! We also had 2 May storms in the EPAC as well! It appears that Beryl is actually heading more towards the east than to the northeast. This could result in an Atlantic re-entry in the Brunswick, GA area rather than the Myrtle Beach, SC area that was predicted by the NHC. --CobraStrike  (t)(b)(c) 00:03, May 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * First of all welcome back SkyFury hope to see you more this year and yeah you loose to track 4 tropical cyclones(Aletta,Alberto,Bud and Beryl) this year it had been a crazy year in the two basins. it also looks like Beryl will re-strength to a ts as soon as she get to water.Allanjeffs 00:11, May 30, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Near Nicaragua
{C This AOI looked pretty well organized during the duration of today. It has been moving towards the {C southeast at a steady pace after blossoming this morning east of Belize and north of Honduras. The upper level winds in the area are in a blaze and it is hard to determine the future track of this AOI. Personally I don't see development, but there's a lot of people (especially on Wunderground) who see development from this. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:54, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't expect a lot from this system as of now. No major global model picks this system up. Climatologically speaking, the formation of this system is highly improbable. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:41, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think it has a shot look what happen with Beryl it didn`t develop in the caribbean because there was a lot of wind shear but it look like winde shear will abate in 72 -96 hours if it can hold on then we might have a td or another ts in our hands.Allanjeffs 02:53, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

It's not in the same conditions Beryl was in, but then again, the conditions for Beryl did get better over time. We'll have to see what this will do. Ryan1000 03:06, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

New Hurricane Wiki Main Page
I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go:

Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here.

Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it.

Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I like the new homepage. Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * This new homepage is truly awesome! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:34, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - No.
 * Beryl - ?
 * If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC)