Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/August

91L.INVEST
New INVEST up on NRL. --Ajm81 09:08, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
 * NHC mentions this system in its discussion:

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
 * What's the shear like out there? --Patteroast 10:37, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Shear is not that bad. Dvorak numbers are T1.5 right now. This could become a new depression. We'll see! -- WmE 12:41, 6 August 2006 (UTC)

What happened to 90L.INVEST? íslenska hurikein | #12 (samtal) 21:40, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It was around at roughly the same time as 99L (ie, Chris), south of the Carolinas.--Guillaume Hebert 21:53, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Oh yea. I'm so stupid sometimes. lol. íslenska hurikein | #12 (samtal) 00:42, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

Looks a nice little blob's broken away from the monsoon trough. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 22:48, 6 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It's starting to look really good now. I'm guessing TD Four soon. bob rulz 01:00, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It's hard to see on IR, but if you look closely, you can see a circulation center on the eastern edge of the ball of convection. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 01:11, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Unlike previous Invests, this one looks like it has a very good chance of becoming Tropical Storm, probably Hurricane, Debby. Hopefully it won't be too destructive. —Cuivi é nen 03:11, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

It's looking like it's not going to happen (which is a good thing!)... Look at it's steady decline! Chacor 09:36, 7 August 2006 (UTC) DATE/TIME    LAT     LON    CLASSIFICATION        STORM 07/0545 UTC   11.7N   38.2W    TOO WEAK              91L 06/1745 UTC   11.7N   36.0W    T1.0/1.5              91L 06/1145 UTC   12.0N   33.1W    T1.5/1.5              91L


 * That's not what the NHC are saying:

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

Pobbie Rarr 18:46, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

This should be debbie! -Winter123 19:07, 7 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It looks promising. It has an LLC, but it lacks convection. Without convection it won't be upgraded. -- WmE 19:53, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

I give it a 20% chance of developing... no deep convection--70.156.159.80 21:49, 7 August 2006 (UTC)


 * It's got plenty of time. When NHC says it could develop tonight or tomorrow, 9 times outta 10 it eventually develops into some kind of tropical cyclone. And any time that Invest is anywhere near the Cape Verde Islands, there's a chance you could be looking at the season's first hurricane. Bottom line: this thing is very much worth paying attention to. -- § Hurricane E RIC § archive 22:17, 7 August 2006 (UTC)

It appears to be in the process of going poof. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 02:29, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it looks like it just suddenly...died. bob rulz 05:27, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Right after I said, "This should be debbie!" It started to die, lol. I think the low way to the north of it has a better chance. (Take a gander at the UNSCIENTIFIC page to see my CLEARLY UNSUPPORTED and overall COMPLETELY STUPID post about it... *rolls eyes* ) -Winter123 08:20, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
 * And yet, the NHC's latest says essentialy the exact same thing it's been saying for days (IE, potential for depression development). And one would probably do well to keep in mind the number of time 99L/Chris was buried on this talk page before it actually bothered to die for real.--Guillaume Hebert 09:58, 8 August 2006 (UTC)

It looks like the low-level circulation is really tightening up now...not enough deep convection to become a depression, but the convection that is there is clustering around the LLC...If there's a blowup this could become a depression, or even a storm, very quickly. Runningonbrains 12:10, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
 * There's been a convective blowup, but it looks like it might shear away. Anyone have a link to where we can find out how much shear is out there?  Is it on the NRL site? Runningonbrains 22:44, 8 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Theres this on the CIMSS, is that what you want?--Nilfanion (talk) 22:50, 8 August 2006 (UTC)

We have broad convection this afternoon, not quite as deep as earlier, but if this keeps up, as the NHC says, TD4 jj 22:41, 8 August 2006 (UTC)

This is really strange. It's gone from the main NRL site, but there's a TCFA on the backup site (which now seems to be down). They may well be in the process of upgrading. Proof of the TCFA is right here. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 00:11, 9 August 2006 (UTC) SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTNT01 KNGU 090301 REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/090000ZAUG06// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 50.0W TO 15.0N 56.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 50.0W HAS BEEN MOVING WESTERLY FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST TWO DAYS AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW CENTER INCREASING TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION. WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER EXPECT MODEL GUIDANCE TO ANALYZE THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN ANALYZED AT 81F(27C). CURRENT MOVEMENT INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ANTILLES WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT FORECAST IS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 100001Z AUG 06.// --Ajm81 01:03, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

Looks like its moving into a less stable/dry environemt. Convection is starting to increase on the front end of the storm, even as the small area of deep convection persists over the LLC. And from the sounds of the advisory above, conditions are only going to get more favorable for development. Looks like the Antilles will have to beware of this one. Runningonbrains 01:18, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Gone. Caput. The End. Yet another false dawn. Pobbie Rarr 01:40, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Not gone, just weaker; Waves can fluctuate and it has held moderate convection thusfar into the evening. If another solid burst pops up, TD4 is possible, this is better then last night. jj 01:52, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

The 00Z model run/objective aids output re. SHIP, with unnecessary bits cut out: DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. DISTURBANCE    INVEST (AL912006) ON 20060809  0000 UTC ...00 HRS...  ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS... 060809 0000   060809  1200   060810  0000   060810  1200  SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          39KTS Bearing in mind how two days ago SHIP was calling this a TS by now, this is by no means accurate. However, it does seem to indicate that this system is definitely not dead. Chacor 02:03, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Are you sure? The NRL doesn't have it up anymore . Pobbie Rarr 02:08, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * It's been discussed above. A TCFA is supposedly out on it, and the backup site supposedly has it. I'm personally waiting for the 10:30 TWO. Chacor 02:09, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Backup site is back up. Everything is indeed there. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 02:19, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * I'm willing to believe you, but I think it's odd that 91L is gone from the Navy page. None of the other systems have been taken down (rather new invests have been added for the W.Pac). Pobbie Rarr 02:19, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * EDIT - I see. I feel like a right idiot now. ;) Pobbie Rarr 02:26, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

0221Z TWO is very interesting: THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY INDICATIONS OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM....AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. Chacor 02:25, 9 August 2006 (UTC) I don't think there are going to be any hurricanes this year. (Just my unscientific opinion.) Good kitty 02:32, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * It's only August 8, what would make you think there's not going to be any hurricanes? Average activity really doesn't start kicking up until August 15. bob rulz 03:32, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * It seems that 91L is gone from the Navy site...haven't seen it up there for a while. bob rulz 12:10, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

Wow! What a surprise (latest TWO). A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. Hurricanehink ( talk ) 15:07, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Wow, that definitely is a surprise! And I had just written this one off. bob rulz 15:18, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Okay, so I just looked at the satellite image of it and I must say that it looks better than it ever has. I would not be surprised if the Hurricane Hunters found a tropical depression later. bob rulz 15:38, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Oh wow, this thing just exploded from nothing to probably a tropical depression.. -Tc w d 15:50, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

NRL has it at 35 knots (TS strength). Chacor 15:56, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * It looks very impressive right now. Bear in mind that at 1000mb it's stronger than Chris ever was. Pobbie Rarr 16:05, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Remember though, nothing is official until the NHC says it is. We'll just have to wait for that Hurricane Hunter plane in a couple of hours (although at this rate we may not even have to wait for that). bob rulz 16:07, 9 August 2006 (UTC)


 * It did the same thing that Chris did. At first looking really crappy but then all of a sudden BOOM! However, we'll have to wait for the recon to confirm whether this is a depression/storm or not. -- WmE 16:16, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It seems that recon just found a closed circulation. I'm not sure though. -- WmE 17:31, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * That seems to be the consensus. If so, TD4/Debby should be very close. jj 17:35, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * When they do the aircraft recons, is there an online radio source so people can listen in on it? Or what's the quickest way to get the info of what they find? SargeAbernathy 17:40, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I'm getting all of the information from the Storm2k thread on it.bob rulz 17:47, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Me too. -- WmE 17:49, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Ah. neato.  Learn something new everyday.  SargeAbernathy 17:52, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Now they're saying that this probably won't be upgraded at the next advisory. No LLC has been found yet. bob rulz 18:08, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Wait, are we talking about what is being talked about on Storm2K? That seems just slightly spurious to me...--Nilfanion (talk) 18:11, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * No, they're basing it off of recon reports. Storm2k isn't just "another forum." bob rulz 18:13, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

Oh, God! Yesterday I couldn't even find this thing on satellite imagery. And today I see this? That's an insane organization. →Cycl one1 → 19:37, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I'm calling this to be a back-up for Chris, but hopefully shear won't get in the way. It looks very healthy and could be a storm by tommorow (which is my best guess). Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 20:03, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Umm, they're sending planes in now to see if it already is one Alastor...  Jamie |  C  [[Image:Flag_of_the_United_States.svg|22px|]] 20:14, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * And it has no closed circulation at this time according to this NHC Special disturbance report.--Nilfanion (talk) 20:26, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Actually, the NRL and JTWC has it on 35kt (or 40 mph) which is tropical storm strength. Anyhow, it sort-of reminds me of Tropical Storm Tammy, who jumped over TD level and instantly became a tropical storm from a tropical wave. Alastor "Mad-Eye" Moody 20:28, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It is definitely forming a surface low. Have you noticed how similar this is to emily? Even the east coast trough is in the same place!
 * All the models pick it up now...looks like its gonna run through the carribean. Runningonbrains 22:31, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Sort of like another storm (Cat 5., unretired) that was mentioned just above you. This thing will be Debby by tommorrow unless things really go bad (or good depending on how you look at it). If it keeps intensifying, we may have our first hurricane by Friday (my birthday!).guitarhero777777 22:40, 9 August 2006 (UTC)

I'd say... Antilles? Rest easy, it'll be a weakling going through you guys. Jamaica? Possibly need to brace yourself. Mexico? Also, heads up. I call for a definate hurricane, possible major hurricane. And so I'm not screamed at by a bunch of people who may not understand the meaning of "harmless unscientific prediction"... THIS IS A HARMLESS UNSCIENTIFIC PREDICTION! →Cycl one1 → 23:42, 9 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I've archived all of this to /August, please avoid continuing from there. Start from here. Justification for archiving: getting too long (19 kb including the AoI). Chacor 01:32, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Just to give a sense of where we were before the archiving, an NHC special statement had been released on the lack of a LLCC. Chacor 01:35, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I'd still say there is a slight chance of becoming TD 4. 24.83.98.3 03:11, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Well, this thing looks rather dead now, and the NHC doesn't seem interested in it anymore. bob rulz 15:21, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Yeah, air force mission cancelled. 11:30 TWO: Chacor 15:50, 10 August 2006 (UTC)

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED

Gone from the NRL. íslenska hurikein | #12 (samtal) 18:23, 10 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Down, but not out. It's gaining convection again south of Haiti. Looks pretty good, actually. It might soon be up on the NRL again. This wave has shocked us before... →Cycl one1 → 19:07, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Creepy. íslenska hurikein | #12 (samtal) 19:11, 11 August 2006 (UTC)


 * What's REALLY creepy is that 2 years ago TODAY Charley was in that exact spot, about the same size. →Cycl one1 → 19:35, 11 August 2006 (UTC)


 * I think it's possible that a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement may issued at the 5 PM or 11 PM (ET) advisory tonight. Hello32020 20:29, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Very good chance of developing if it pases south of Jamaica Hello32020 20:35, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
 * You mean...it's not dead yet? These tropical waves love taunting us. bob rulz 20:37, 11 August 2006 (UTC)

Yes, espeacially this one. →Cycl one1 → 21:10, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I agree with Hello32020, if this thing can survive the "sheer of death" it is going through now just long enough for it to get sothwest of Jamaica, it has a very decent chance of development. →Cycl one1 → 21:21, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It has a chance if it can sustain the deep convection. Shear is not that high but there seems to be some dry air around it. I'm not really convinced that it will develop. It's just a wave right now. -- WmE 21:30, 11 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It seems to have a weak, weak, weak spin with it. It wants so badly to be Debby. →Cycl one1 → 22:37, 11 August 2006 (UTC)

I think its finally gone now. →Cycl one1 → 11:40, 12 August 2006 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Right at the Windwards. Looks nice. -- RattleMan 14:06, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Agreed, looks good. No real -70'C cloud tops though, they seem warmer. Chacor 14:10, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I think I see convection. íslenska hurikein | #12 (samtal) 14:15, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Hmmm, this one is worth watching. A Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate it this afternoon. bob rulz 15:22, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Yes, that's amazing. Shear isn' that high and the NHC seems to be very interested in it. -- WmE 15:25, 13 August 2006 (UTC)

Dang, this one looks good. SargeAbernathy 17:26, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Looks great so far. Let's see what recon does in a little bit. Nothing to this in only ~12 hours is pretty good. Hurricanehink ( talk ) 17:39, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Hopefully wind shear may not get in the way. Alastor Moody (talk) 19:08, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Umm, no - "hope" implies you want a TC. TC = bad.--Nilfanion (talk) 19:23, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Lets not start this argument again... Cryomaniac 19:26, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * How many times much we discuss about this, let's not start the fire like what happened to TS Beryl disccuions. Alastor Moody (talk) 20:06, 13 August 2006 (UTC)

It looks like convection is decreasing. Furthermore there haven't been any recon observations, so it's been canceled. Wind shear isn't that high but the dry air around is taking its toll. -- WmE 19:43, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I don't see much coming out of this blob. CrazyC83 21:08, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Agreed, I don't expect this ever to be upgraded to a TD. Dry air and wind shear has sure killed many wanna-be storms. Alastor Moody (talk) 07:18, 14 August 2006 (UTC)

Gone. Chacor 13:34, 14 August 2006 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Off the East Coast. -- RattleMan 14:06, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Non-tropical. Chacor 16:10, 13 August 2006 (UTC)

Augh! A weekend of calm weather, and then I open NHC Outlook and find that it's interested in two areas! Oh well, it'll probably be like every other interest and fizzle out due to shear. SargeAbernathy 17:24, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Not too shabby... This one could take a while to develop, but it has potential, it seems. Hurricanehink ( talk ) 17:39, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I've actually been watching this one for a couple days. The NAM, CMC, and NOGAPS models have been hinting at something developing in this area. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 18:12, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Seems to be strengthening, I wonder if this could be a Beryl-related storm. Alastor Moody (talk) 19:05, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I'm leaning towards that too, a repeat of Beryl. I think this has a much better chance of development than 92L. CrazyC83 21:08, 13 August 2006 (UTC)

It's still drifting south. I don't see a Beryl repeat. It's probably gonna stall for a while. →Cycl one1 → 21:26, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Yep, check out the predicted future of this storm. . It's supposed to drift east then northwest, the south west towards Fflorida. It has plenty of time to form. →Cycl one1 → 21:39, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It's looking really good! Ok, now somebody else talk. →Cycl  one1 → 23:33, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Fine. I'll talk. That path is the wierdest I've ever seen, except msybe for Elena's path.guitarhero777777 23:59, 13 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Ok, what about Ophelia, Marco (96), and Roxanne (95)? Those were pretty creepy. íslenska hurikein | #12 (samtal) 00:07, 14 August 2006 (UTC)


 * I had to look up the tracks of them (except Ophelia) and they were creepy. This one however is expected to move south, which tropical cyclones rarely do (i think.)


 * I like Kyle of 2002's track, too. You would be correct in saying that most tropical cyclones do not move south (at least not for very long or far), as long as you are talking about the northern hemisphere ones. :) &mdash;BazookaJoe 02:18, 14 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Nothing intersting now, there's barely any convection left. 24.83.98.3 03:48, 14 August 2006 (UTC)

Man, this seems to be the slowest and most inactive Atlantic season I saw (from my perspective), right now its mid-August and only three storms?! Cause if it was 2005, we'd be seeing our 10th and/or 11th storm now. Alastor Moody (talk) 07:08, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Believe it or not, this is an above-average season. A season on the scale of 2005 had never happened before. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 07:44, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Are you sure it's still above average? bob rulz 08:13, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * According to this analysis from a professional met on Storm2k, it's average compared to short-term climo, and above average compared to mid-term and long-term climo. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 10:20, 14 August 2006 (UTC)

One of those reconnasiance planes are supposed to investigate the storm. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:49, 14 August 2006 (UTC)

A low-pressure area has formed northeast of the northern Bahamas along a decrepit frontal boundary. Convection with the low has been waning through the afternoon, but if it can increase and persist, a tropical depression could develop over the next day or two. Air force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are on standby to investigate the system on Tuesday, if necessary.

weather.com Alastor Moody (talk) 00:54, 15 August 2006 (UTC)


 * The Weather Channel is not official, I don't see why we should take their word for anything. Chacor 00:58, 15 August 2006 (UTC)


 * You're right, they're not...but they've got to count for something, don't they? bob rulz 01:14, 15 August 2006 (UTC)

I know they are not official, but they do have similar hurricane data the NHC has, but when a NHC dosen't monitor a blob, the NRL or the weather channel can which can provide us info. Alastor Moody (talk) 01:23, 15 August 2006 (UTC)

I don't really see much from this storm. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 05:25, 16 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Convection has flared up again. The tropical waves and the low pressure areas are taunting us this year! bob rulz 11:21, 16 August 2006 (UTC)


 * It's on NHC's tropical cyclone danger area graphic now.  Jamie |  C  [[Image:Flag_of_the_United_States.svg|22px|]] 15:20, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * TCFA. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 16:36, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I know it's a fun term to use, and I do sometimes myself in less official contexts, but I wanted to make sure you realized that only the JWTC issues Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts, and they only care about places not handled by the NHC. An Atlantic storm would not have a TCFA issued for it. --Golbez 16:39, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Then what's that graphic on the NRL page? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 16:46, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * There's a TCFA, at least it s shown on the NRL page. -- WmE 17:02, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) -- VOFFA 18:25, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

Image. It does quite clearly say "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert". Chacor 19:27, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Then that's entirely new to me, because in 2004 or 2005 it was only done by the JTWC that I know of. --Golbez 20:49, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * In fact, Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert says they are "released by the US Navy-operated Joint Typhoon Warning Center", but the JTWC is only responsible for the "North West Pacific Ocean, South Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean." So I'm a little confused - either the JTWC was bored and decided to throw TCFAs around the Atlantic, or our article is out of date. --Golbez 20:51, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Recon just found a closed circulation. Thus it should be upgraded, however it seems that it won't survive long in this hostile environment. What will the NHC do, will they upgrade it to TD 4 or leave it as a weak surface low? -- WmE 20:05, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. Chacor 20:15, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Well, that answers my question. -- WmE 20:19, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

Wow, this thing is tiny! Gorgoeus, though! →Cycl one1 → 20:49, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * WP:POINT. Anything more and you'd be liable for a block. This behaviour by everyone dissatisfied has gone on long enough. Chacor 20:54, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I'm confused if you're whining or just trying to make funny; either way, you failed. --Golbez 20:55, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I'm really sorry... I feel bad now. I'll take it off immediatley. →Cycl one1 → 21:09, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * HOW IS THIS NOT A TD? NHC has some dumb rules for how they classify tropical systems. -Winter123 21:58, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I'm with you. According to the forecast models, we, down here, might be in for something. Interesting. one of them has it going into Texas after striking the FL/GA coast. That's bizzare. →Cycl one1 → 22:10, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It still has a chance to become a tropical depression, but it doesn't yet look like one to me. It still has limited convection. bob rulz 22:12, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

WHOA! Is that an EYE?!? →Cycl one1 → 22:18, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * No, nevermind. It dissapeard. →Cycl one1 → 22:39, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Please don't call it an eye. Call it an exposed center of circulation. Every good cyclone needs to have a center, so it's nothing to get overly excited about. It's good for a developing cyclone to have a well-defined center, but it's bad for the center to be seen on the low level, because that means there aren't any healthy thunderstorms around it. &mdash;BazookaJoe 13:08, 17 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Good explanation. However, get the facts the right way around please. A TD forming is not good it is inherently bad news.--Nilfanion (talk) 19:45, 17 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Actually he has it right. Yes, a tropical cyclone is bad for us, but he was writing in the perspective of the storm.  If he had wrote, it's bad for a developing cyclone to have a well-defined center, it would have made no sense.  --Holderca1 19:55, 17 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Looks similar to an eye some convection in it though. It's defintely trying to form one though. Hello32020 01:56, 17 August 2006 (UTC)

Dvorak numbers are now T1.5/1.5. Well, could this be TD 4? -- WmE 19:42, 17 August 2006 (UTC)


 * Tropical cyclones can be good if they're not destructive. I bet Texas would welcome a tropical depression right now. Pobbie Rarr 20:08, 17 August 2006 (UTC)
 * This thing is so painfully close to depression status. →Cycl one1 → 22:30, 17 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It looks like the end of this system... part 3. →Cycl one1 → 01:15, 18 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Not quite. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 20:27, 18 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I don't get it; it at least looks like it has a center of cirulation. It looks just like TS Chris did when it lost its convection, yet they said it was a TC. What's with that? íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 22:18, 18 August 2006 (UTC)


 * It's fast running out of time. It'll make landfall soon. Pobbie Rarr 01:13, 19 August 2006 (UTC)

Finallly gone from NRL. -- RattleMan 18:43, 20 August 2006 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Now up. Chacor 13:34, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Already? Half of it is still over Africa... —AySz88\^ - ^  13:39, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Well, it will probably da lot evelop before it reaches the Caribbean and die like the rest. íslenska hurikein | #12 (samtal) 13:48, 14 August 2006 (UTC)

The tag says 30 knots/1008mb already. Nice. -- RattleMan 14:09, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * The NHC says it will probably become a TD before it reaches Cape Verde. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:51, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * No, they say it could. "A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOMORROW." —Cuivi é nen 14:58, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Oh, close enough. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 15:00, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Wow, it looks good. The Cape Verde Islands are very prone to floodings, they need to watch this one. Let's hope it won't develop. -- WmE 15:23, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Hope it won't but I think it will, and become the first hurricane in the process. CrazyC83 15:29, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * In case you've been missing - please keep the predictions to a minimum, and discuss the facts. As per WP:MFD (and the deletion of the AOIs), WP:NOT a web forum. Chacor 15:35, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * This one definitely looks worth watching... the NHC's got it on its danger area graphic, and given its location, it could do just about anything. --Patteroast 17:04, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It has actually weakened. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 21:25, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Yes, it appears to be weakening. Convection is starting to dissipate near the center. --Core des at talk. ^_^ 21:51, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It's still got a long time to develop, though. bob rulz 21:59, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * This storm worths watching. If this becomes a notable storm. -- Irfan  faiz  22:18, 14 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Cape Verde INVEST could bear watching as the NHC continues to monitor the wave. Alastor Moody (talk) 00:57, 15 August 2006 (UTC)

30kt and 1009mb. So it's only 1mb weaker than earlier (as stated by Rattleman). Pobbie Rarr 01:54, 15 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Poof and gone! -- WmE 13:14, 15 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I didn't think it'd disappear that fast... —The preceding unsigned comment was added by Bladeswin (talk • contribs).
 * I wouldn't be surprised to see it come back...it has a lot of time on its side. CrazyC83 21:00, 15 August 2006 (UTC)

63L.NRLTES
Weird name. Well here it is in the Gulf of Mexico. Very Organized. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 23:24, 15 August 2006 (UTC)
 * 63L is a Test Invest - perhaps a precursor to 95L and got on there accidentally? Whatever it is, it does look good. CrazyC83 23:31, 15 August 2006 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) I have a feeling that header is an NRL tes(t). Whether the entire invest is a test, I have no idea - but Masters has already flagged it in his blog, so I think it's probably a real invest. —AySz88\^ - ^ 23:32, 15 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Seeing as the system is over "THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO" as mentioned in the TWO, I'd say its a for real system.--Nilfanion (talk) 23:47, 15 August 2006 (UTC)
 * My guess (pure speculation) is that the NRL is trying to decide whether to declare it an Invest (the NHC has mentioned it) and has not made a decision, but the internal "sandbox" declaration accidentally made it onto the Internet. Perhaps they use 60L-69L or 60L-79L or something for internal decisions (like our old "Areas of Interest")?CrazyC83 23:52, 15 August 2006 (UTC)


 * They seemed to fix the main page, I can't find 63L. 24.83.98.3 00:06, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
There's a 95L up on NRL now. I don't know if it's this system, though, since there's no satellite pictures of it up yet. I would assume it would be this. bob rulz 01:47, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Yep, that's it. bob rulz 01:58, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Nothing there now, though, except cirrus outflow (unless you count the hugemongeous red blob over southern AL and MS). Plenty of upper-level divergence, but no lower-level convergence on their analysis.   On the bubble now - could be trouble if it regains organized convection, but could fizzle if it comes back popcorn-like (or doesn't occur at all). —AySz88\^ <font color="#FF6633">- <font color="#FF3300">^  02:49, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Those seem to be "outer bands"... CrazyC83 04:02, 16 August 2006 (UTC)

Gone from NRL... -- RattleMan 05:00, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Or not? It's still listed, although most of the clouds are overland now. Chacor 05:12, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * It returned! Those overland clouds are moving southward. -- RattleMan 05:18, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * NRL's still showin it. Looks messy to me... - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 12:50, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * WEAK low on multiple levels. Very small chance. -Winter123 21:56, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Is it that blob over Louisiana now? Or did it just dissipate? bob rulz 22:22, 16 August 2006 (UTC)
 * I can't see anything there now. I think its pretty much dead  Jamie  |  C  [[Image:Flag_of_the_United_States.svg|22px|]] 15:39, 17 August 2006 (UTC)
 * Gone. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 21:37, 17 August 2006 (UTC)

04L.Debby

 * See the Debby Storm Event Archive.

05L.Ernesto

 * See the Ernesto Storm Event Archive.