Forum:2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Future start
...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:21, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Btw, Fiji Met's website got a new design :D Isaac829  E-Mail  00:15, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

Betting pools
Finally made them. We don't have a first storm formation section though, because we made them too late. Anja already formed. =( Ryan1000 17:13, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

90S.INVEST
Nice way to start the season. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:57, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

This shouldn't become anything, but assuming it can become a moderate tropical storm, it will be named Anais. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, October 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * And it's gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:24, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
New invest. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:24, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 01
First disturbance of the year, and shaping up to be the first storm of the year. But... welcome to the pre-season club. Kiewii! 10:12, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

What is it with off-season storms (Kuena, 29P, and now this?)? Anyway, I hope for a MTS. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:40, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 01
Strengthening still, could be Anais in 12 hours. Now also expected to become an STS. Kiewii! 12:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Now TC 01S per JTWC... they show it strengthening to just below hurricane strength. Kiewii! 16:23, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

This is quite soon; the SHem doesn't usually start until November 15. Personally, I think this should be TD 01S, but MFR doesn't call it that, so it'll stay as TD 01. Ryan1000 18:55, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Now named Anais. 112.201.209.72 10:57, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Anais
45 mph/993 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Strengthening at a somewhat rapid pace per JTWC. Dvorak is at 65 kt, so shouldn't be too surprised to see it at hurricane status by 03z. Kiewii! 14:45, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Anais
Really intensifying now... 45 kt to 65 kt. Kiewii! 18:57, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

This thing looks like a major hurricane already. Madagascar could possibly get a nasty pre-season surprise from this. I think this might have a chance at cat 4 in the next day or two. Then again, this early in the season the jet stream tends to veer these storms south, away from land. It's still a beautiful storm to see. Ryan1000 19:28, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like Anja I think of 2011 or 2010 ? just bigger Anais may become a cat or 4 before weakenig I think a 3 will be her peak.Allanjeffs 21:52, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais
Here we go...Ryan1000 16:09, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

It might become a Category 4 (on the SSHS). Isaac829 E-Mail  16:16, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

Has there been a tropical cyclone this intense so early in the season? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:29, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

As far as I know, it never happened here before. However, the SPac had a similar storm several years ago in October 2006 (2006-2007 season) with tropical cyclone Xavier, a powerful category 4 that tore up a few islands in the SPac in October. The Australian region has never seen something like this so early, but Cyclone Guba of November 2007 did cause severe flooding in Papua New Guinea, and it was a very unusual storm to exist in that area of Australia at that time of year. While it never got past category 1 intensity, it's their closest example to this. Ryan1000 17:13, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

I found out Anais is indeed the earliest SWIO ITC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (2nd time)
It's weakening fast.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:42, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Anais
It is, actually. Kiewii! 18:46, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Anais
Quite a nice start to the season. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:08, October 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 02
It probably shouldn't be named. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:55, November 15, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin
This one sprug up quite fast. A little more than a month after Anais, this storm might become a C1 soon enough. But not sure about MH strength from this one. Ryan1000 15:36, November 24, 2012 (UTC)

I doubt C1 from this storm. Isaac829 E-Mail  16:18, November 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * I actually think it will become atleast a C1. From what I'm gathering from satellite estimates it's already up to 60 knts. Supportstorm (talk) 18:15, November 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'd say Boldwin will become a tropical cyclone (on the SWI scale). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:13, November 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * CAN HE BE A MAJOR STORM?? :O i see him becoming a major? minor c2 is okay too! (why are storms referred to it when boldwin is a guy's hurricane tho? isnt it he?) lol so i see baldwin gettin to major.? 188.223.248.201 23:39, November 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually is weakeing now I was going to make the heading with these storm but it was early in the morning and I was sleepy. there is also an invest in the WPAC that should become something imo.Allanjeffs 04:34, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin
Per what Allan said.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  16:58, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like I (and Liz) totally overestiamted Boldwin. It wasn't that bad of a fail, but it still will be long forgotten impactwise. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:47, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ex-Boldwin
It was that bad of a fail. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:02, November 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04
Seems the SWIO is the only SHem basin that's been alive thus far. New depression there now. Claudia, anyone? Ryan1000 15:09, December 6, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia
Now upgraded to a moderate tropical storm, and named Claudia. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, December 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Intensifying quickly... Ryan1000 02:53, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Here we go again... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:35, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Could be an ITC soon enough. Now a cat 3 up to 115 mph, or 100 mph on MFR's 10-minute scale. At least it's far from land, like Anais was. Ryan1000 17:11, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Now an ITC.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:57, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Claudia (2nd time)
Back to a TC. Isaac829 E-Mail  03:17, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Down and out. Ryan1000 18:23, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F
This one is out there too. It's a ways away from 04f, but either way, we should see one, or two, named storms in the next few days. Probrably not 03F though, this one's falling apart fast. Ryan1000 14:46, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Dead now. Oh well... Ryan1000 18:21, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F

 * Have a feeling this will became the SP first significant cyclone. It recently acquired an eye which could signal intensification soon. Supportstorm (talk) 03:08, December 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * GFS sees this storm heading in an erratic direction near Fiji, but not making landfall there. The extratropical remnants, according to the model, could hit New Zeland, but hopefully not that strong when it gets there. Ryan1000 14:46, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Evan
Not a cat 2 cyclone on the Australian scale.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:52, December 12, 2012 (UTC)

Its giving a direct hit to the Samoas and could be a landfall at any moment!Allanjeffs 00:55, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Unfortunately, Evan is now forecast to peak as a cat 3 (on SSHS). Worse, GFS takes the eyewall of this storm passing right over Fiji, which makes for a potentially devastating scenario for storm surge and high winds. It's likely going to pass over the Samoan Islands as a category 2-3 storm (likely to intensify soon), but forecast takes it to 125 mph. They should be preparing right now, this is pretty early to see a storm this powerful. Ryan1000 12:30, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan
Evan is now a category 3 severe tropical cyclone on Australia's scale, or a C2 on SSHS. The American Samoa Capital, Apia, got a 12-15 foot storm surge from Evan. Two people were killed thus far, Fiji's up next. Ryan1000 18:21, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Moving away from Samoa now...hopefully it'll begin to weaken so no more damage is felt. STO12 (talk) 01:28, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Three deaths...next up on Evan's impact list: Tonga. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Err..no, Andrew. More of Fiji. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:59, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
This may be a bit too early, but Evan does have a reasonable chance of retirement. Here are my retirement candidates (remember, SWIO storms are NOT retired):

AUS:

None yet

SPAC: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, December 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Evan - 40% - Well, I don't know what Samoa or Fiji's retiree standards are.