Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season/July

July
Welcome to July in the Eastern Pacific! As you can see, we have been off to an extremely active start. For the fifth time in history, five tropical storms formed before July 1, with a record two becoming Category 4 hurricanes and Elida becoming the earliest fifth storm in a season since Celia '92 (right, YE?) ! Now that's quite a way to begin the season! And I only see July becoming more active. My predictions - 8 depressions, 6 named storms, 5 hurricanes (counting a personal forecast for Elida), and 3 major hurricanes, with an ACE of ~55 (give or take 15). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:20, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm predicting a total of 6 depressions and named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Individual storm predictions:
 * Hurricane Fausto - July 4 > July 12 - Category 2 (100 mph) - No landmasses affected
 * Hurricane Genevieve - July 9 > July 16 - Category 1 (85 mph) - No landmasses affected
 * Hurricane Hernan - July 17 > July 29 - Category 5 (165 mph) - Slight effects in Mexico in its formative stages
 * Tropical Storm Iselle - July 19 > July 22 - Tropical Storm (50 mph) - No landmasses affected, eventually gets absorbed into Hernan
 * Hurricane Julio - July 26 > August 4 - Category 3 (120 mph) - Strikes Baja Peninsula as a Category 1
 * Tropical Storm Karina - July 31 > August 2 - Tropical Storm (45 mph) - No landmasses affected


 * I feel like I'm being a bit optimistic, but oh well. We'll see how this month will go, hopefully it'll be an epic/awesome month for the EPac!  Steve  820  ✉   05:00, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Anddrew your are correct, earliest storm #5 since Celia 92. but Steven, you're a little bit optimistic. Even though the GFS has showing pre-Douglas and Elida striking land at some point, I'd be surprised if we get a landfall in MX. Not counting Elida and Douglas, I am going with 4/1/1. I think we are in a set up that does not favor intense system, and favors a lot of systems, albeit weak ones due to northerly ITCZ and vertical instability. Looks like the midsummer drought out there that you typically see 3-4 weeks from now. YE Pacific Hurricane  05:13, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (Mid-Atlantic)
This wave formed mid-Atlantic, currently over Isthmus of Tehuantepec. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:18, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Currently over Honduras. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI could become a tropical wave later this week well to the southwest of Mexico. Chances of formation for the next five days are now at 30%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:23, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's already a tropical wave. This AOI does look like it has Fausto potential in the long run, probably next week, but it needs some time to organize first. But right now I'm more focused on Arthur in the Atlantic due to the fact it might be a destructive storm for the U.S. east coast.  Steve  820  ✉   04:50, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:00, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 0/20, I guess it probably won't develop :( But it still seems like it has a little bit of potential though. --  Steve  820  ✉   16:34, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Steve, not necessarily. Although it is moving rather fast westwards at 10 to 15 mph, development could still come, albeit very slowly. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:52, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Chances of formation for the next two and five days are now at 10% and 20%, respectively. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:54, July 5, 2014 (UTC)

(←)The AOI remains disorganized, and any development from it should be very slow to occur. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:36, July 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/20. Which means it has normal vision :P YE Pacific Hurricane  06:14, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's going to take so long to develop that it won't become a tropical cyclone until it reaches the WPac! (Just kidding XD) But, this AOI is starting to bore me, I don't know if it will develop at all anymore. --  Steve  820  ✉   15:19, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Invest'd. A cherry (60/60). Really likely to be a dud tropical storm in the middle of nowhere. God no. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:26, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * YE, shower and thunderstorm activity have actually been decreasing in Invest 99E recently, so I do not believe it has that great of a chance. But the way it is looking, if we get any increase of thunderstorm activity, the NHC will classify a tropical storm. Like Elida, Fausto should not ruin his image of a strong storm. Remember 2002? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:13, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * This could become a re-Erick should it become a TS, which is likely considering it is already producing gale-force winds. Heck, it even looks like Erick by satellite representation. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:21, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

Andrew, mind you thinking outside of the what the NHC says? It wasn't decreasing and look what we have now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:28, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fausto
Upgraded. Likely to be weak. These kinds of storms tend to have a lot of ups and downs. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:28, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

I don't believe it will be that of a fail depending if it moves north or south, if it moves north shear will kill him but if it moves south it have a chance of becoming the third hurricane of the season. I just hope this season is not like 2010 when we got Celia and Darby and everything else was a fail. Btw looks like El Niño might not develop until October in the Atlantic if it develops, but sadly vertical instability have been bad but we will see.Allanjeffs 23:50, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATL nino events aren't as important when it comes to predicting the season. Regarding the actual El Nino, who knows at this point. Really, everything globally the past few years has been acting weird. Look at last years ATL hurricane season, or the EPAC overachieving the past 3 years in a supposedly inactive phase, or the lack of red meat ATL landfall, or the lack of activity in the AUS for proof. We've pretty much had El Nino conditions present since March, but it's probs not a real El Nino if it just stops here. Back to Fausto, I agree this could become a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:01, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Fausto is at 35 knots (40 mph)/1007 mbar (hPa) per the NHC. It is expected to turn north-northwestwards under the influence of a subtropical ridge. GFS and ECMWF are more westward with the storm's motion. Due to low vertical wind shear, warm SST's, and a moist environment, Fausto should gradually strengthen over the next three days and then weaken from there on out due to unfavorable conditions. The NHC expects a peak intensity of 55 knots (65 mph), but I see no reason a hurricane will not happen. But Douglas was also forecast to reach strong TS intensity, and you saw what he did. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:19, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't expect it to become very strong due to only marginally favorable conditions at best, but if it doesn't travel northward as much and try to go for Hawaii, shear might not have as much of an impact on it as NHC forecasts, and it could very well become a hurricane. While it could surprise us like Amanda and Cristina did, it could also pull a Douglas and bust. Most of the Atlantic is currently being dominated by dry air, and I expect this to persist for most of the season, but there could be a few African waves that manage to make it through, or we could have some cold fronts come through and produce some storms along the gulf and east coasts, a la 2002. Though I think this year will turn out to be like 2009 more than anything else. Ryan1000 07:46, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * While Fausto appears well-organized, ASCAT passes reveal the LLCC may actually be displaced from the main convection. A slight turn west-northwestwards is still expected for the next few days. Due to favorable conditions, aside from some heavy shear, Fausto should gradually intensify over the next two days, and then weaken due to increasing shear. Also of note is that some models are forecasting Fausto to degenerate into an open trough. If that happens, Fausto will no doubt be our season's third fail. Winds are at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa). The JTWC report the same winds, gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:57, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow, it just a pain to watch such a strong name epically fail. The cloud pattern of Fausto is very ill-defined, and there are no gale-force winds in any quadrant except the southeast. Based on ASCAT data, the storm's current intensity from my second post above is being held, but this might be generous because they could easily be higher winds in the unmeasured southeast quadrant. Fausto is beginning to curve west-northwestwards, and it should continue to do so under the influence of a low- to mid- level ridge. Afterwards, it should deaccelerate and begin to move westwards into the low-level trade wind flow. Warm SST's and vertical wind shear could easily favor intensification for the next 48 hours, but dry air will really slow down the strengthening pace. Over the next few days, Fausto should then consequently weaken due to increasing shear and decreasing SST's. Fausto, you better get your act together soon! Steve, if you thought Douglas or Elida were epic fails, Fausto is a true disgrace to tropical cyclones, unless he gets his act together soon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:43, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fausto, if you don't get your act together soon, you'll officially be a SUPER EPIC FAIL AND DISGRACE TO TCs! It looks like we might have our 3rd epic fail, and an extreme one at that. If you don't get your act together soon, Fausto, everyone on this wiki will laugh at you and call you names. You're about to be an even worse epic fail/disgrace to tropical cyclones than Douglas and even Elida if you don't get your act together, and you will also be a very laughable junk storm!! I'm just warning you, piece of sh!t storm. I wonder if I just made him very mad? Strengthen, Fausto, strengthen or else you'll officially be an extreme epic fail and disgrace to TCs!! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:57, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is what happens when systems mess with the ITCZ. They more often than not perish young. Fuasto is an epic epic epic epic fail. Douglas wasn't an epic fail though. It was a pest that was fat, so it stayed as a TS for a while. Fuasto is a disgrace to the EPAC I agree. When JMO comes around end of month, we better see more interesting tropical cyclones. Or else. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:28, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * I cannot stress enough how much of a fail Fausto is, at least so far. The current forecast has it lasting enough to enter the CPHC's area of responsibility. I have a feeling Fausto may not make it that far, due to the fact it is not organized right now and it has a truckload of dry air in front of it. But, we shall see. BigO99 (talk) 01:17, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * All the thunderstorm activity of Fausto have been taken by the ITCZ. It looks like it will be declared a remnant low in the next 12 hours if convection don't start firing. Douglas in my opinion was a fail. This season is turning like a 2010 hope its not.Allanjeffs 01:28, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * I kinda see what you mean, but 2010 was a La Nina year. This is some kind of El Nino/warm neutral year. If you actually looked at the shear and vertical instability graphs you'd see the conditions were much more favorable now than then. 2010 had frigid SST's, high shear, and by October, the basin was practically winter. 2010 didn't get a storm in July, we're 1/3 thru the month, and a TS forms in a neutral MJO. Only place where shear is unfavorable is where Elida formed, Douglas was too large, but was both an under and over performer, and Fausto is playing tango with the ITCZ. 2 of the 3 had they been smaller/more southerly ITCZ would likely have become a hurricane. Regarding the storm itself, it won't become a remmant low. It'll go straight to an open trough. The convection isn't fully attached to the ITCZ quite yet. Re-developing convection shouldn't be hard; maintaining a closed LLC will be. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:39, July 9, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fausto
RIP. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  09:40, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just wow. All of Fausto's convection became disorganized overnight and detached from the center. In fact, ASCAT data shows this storm may even be an open trough right now! Even with low shear and warm SST's, Fausto is unlikely to gain any more intensity due to poor thermodynamic factors. Another scenario, as suggested by GFS and ECMWF, is that all of Fausto's circulation dissipates and we are left with just a trough. The system is more likely to remain moving westwards due to it becoming more weaker and shallower. Fausto's current intensity is 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). Also, just for trivia, this "Fausto" will be the first non-Hurricane Fausto on record, assuming nothing out of the ordinary happens. Fausto, may I say this - I am very disappointed in you, you epic fail! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:57, July 9, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Fausto
Wow. Just wow. Epic facepalm. Satellite imagery, scattometer data, and a GPM overpass indicate Fausto has become a trough of low pressure. Since it is moving west-northwestwards into increasing shear and decreasing SST's, regeneration is not expected. Fausto, you are an epic disgrace to all tropical cyclones! You are much better than this!!! Please! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:54, July 9, 2014 (UTC)

What a disgrace is this system so far of the 6 named storms this is the worst. Such an epic fail, this name was throw down the toilet hope it doesn't happen with the next systems to come.Allanjeffs 15:33, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ha. Haha. Ha ha ha ha. Umm... yikes. Guess Amanda and Cristina had too much fun and ruined it for everyone else lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:00, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * An EPIC EPIC EPIC fail. THIS IS NOT THE ATL. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:48, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * What is going on? The CPHC states ex-Fausto should not regenerate, but they give it a near 0% chance of coming back to life in the next 48 hours. What? Is that not a little contradictory? Personally, due to increasing unfavorable conditions, I believe Fail Fausto is done for good. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:26, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fausto the faulure, that's how I'll remember this one. Although, it did give me something to look at for a day or two...nah nvm, this one sucked. Terribly. Ryan1000 20:53, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Fausto is now off the CPHC outlook. Bye, fail! ;) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:07, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Bye Epicfailsto!! Ha ha. This belongs in the hurricane hall of epic fail along with his best friends Joyce (2012 Atl), Karina (2008 EPac), Jerry (2013 Atl), Karen (2013 Atl), and Franklin and Jose (both 2011 Atl). Looks like Amanda and Cristina ruined the party like Dylan said above. Lol, Fausto is such a disgrace I could laugh at it all day! My reaction to this epic epic fail disgrace/abomination of TCs-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:54, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 26)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:31, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:22, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
30/40. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:12, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it becomes Fausto...-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:21, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/20. Lame. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:22, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower and thunderstorm activity in this invest has really become disorganized. Any development at all should now be very slow to occur as Invest 98E moves west-northwestwards at 10 to 15 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:14, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * It won't form IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:31, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Showers and thunderstorms have become even more disorganized in Invest 98E. It has just 48 hours to develop before unfavorable conditions take over. Chances of formation have dropped to 10% for the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:37, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree with YE, it won't form. Genevieve will come later and hopefully it won't fail! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:59, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hold on a second, organization just got slightly better organized in Invest 98E. It could develop a little more today before upper-level winds become less conductive (Honestly, after Fausto, I just want this thing to die!) . Its chances of formation for both the next two and five days are now at 20% (20%). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:23, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 98E is really trying to make a run for it. Cloudiness and showers have increased in the system this morning. However, with colder water and strong upper-level winds taking over soon, it's chances for formation remain the same. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:13, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really really hope this doesn't develop or it'll be just a Fausto 2.0. Luckily environmental conditions are getting less favorable, so looks like it won't become anything! Yay!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:00, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's done for. Douglas is spewing NWterly dry air all over this crap. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  17:07, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Invest 98E is literally throwing all its got. The NHC claims shower activity has become more concentrated and the wind circulation is now a little more defined. But with it encountering cooling SST's and intensifying upper-level winds, any more development should be very unlikely. Its chances of formation for both the next two and five days remain at 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:20, July 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds have been established over Invest 98E, and no more tropical cyclone development is anticipated. Chances of formation have dropped to 10% for both the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:27, July 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 98E is dead per the NHC. It is off the TWO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:00, July 11, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (Mid-Atlantic)
Over Isthmus of Tehuantepec. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:01, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Parallel to 98E, right behind it. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:29, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Merged with 98E. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  17:07, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 30)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:32, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Over 65-70W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Off Nicaragua. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:01, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * S of Mexico; GFS develops this in the CPac. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:30, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:19, July 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI is rather disorganized, and only slow development is expected. I would expect it to form in the CPac. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:32, July 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree, it might form in the CPac. Development's only going to be very slow seems like, so a TS might not form until the CPac. Or it might not develop at all. We'll see...-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:40, July 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/50. Does it wanna be Genevieve or Wali? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:23, July 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * 50/60 Whatever becomes will be weak and might be just a td or a 45mph storm.Allanjeffs 08:45, July 15, 2014 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
50/60. And an investment. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:57, July 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still not sure if it'll be Genevieve or Wali. Anyways, it could be a named storm by tomorrow, though I expect it to not get past 50 mph. Here comes another weakling! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:20, July 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Down to 40% might not form at all.Allanjeffs 17:44, July 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Chances are at 40/50, and development is seems less likely from this system. However, I'm not giving up on this one just yet. Simlover123 21:56, July 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, Invest 90E is very disorganized, and conditions will only be conductive for gradual development over the next two days. Afterwards, upper-level winds will become unfavorable for development. If this does form, it will most likely be Fausto 2.0. Also, chances for formation have fallen to 30% for the next two days and 40% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:59, July 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Odds have fallen furthur to 20/20, and it is about to cross into the Central Pacific basin. So, if it does develop, it will probably be Wali and not Genevieve. Simlover123 15:14, July 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 90E has crossed into the CPAC basin. It is still very disorganized, but conditions should be conductive for gradual development until tomorrow. From there on out, upper-level winds will prevent development of the invest. If this becomes something, as I said above, it will most likely be Fausto 2.0. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:21, July 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really don't think it'll develop anymore, instead the upper-level winds will rip it apart. If it does become something in the very little time it has left it'll only be a depression, but I think nothing will come out of this after all! Maybe Wali or Genevieve will come later but they should form soon, hopefully soon! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   04:43, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

WOAH! It has just been upgraded to 80%!!! This is what the CPac says about this invest:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has been moving west northwest at less than 10 mph. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance has become better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression may be forming. Advisories may be initiated later today for this system if current trends continue. After 24 to 36 hours, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.


 * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent.

Looks like we have Fausto 2.0 in the making. Which really sucks because the basin has produced too much fails lately. But hey, at least it'll be our first CPac storm since the burst of activity in August 2013, assuming it does develop! Even if it does become Wali, like I said before, it'll be a fail because upper-level winds are expected to rip it apart in the next day or so.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:28, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Expect this to become td 1 at coming hours, but it will be a fail expect no more than a weak ts. Thank God this develop in the Cpac and not in the Epac or Genevieve would had been a fail.Allanjeffs 19:18, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * CPAC storms don't fail. Expectations are too low for them to fail. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:35, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-C
"The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 11 am HST on newly formed tropical depression One-C, located about 1300 miles east southeast of Honolulu." WHAT?! I swore this invest was at 20% last night. What the heck is going on?! The JTWC has issued a TCFA on Invest 90E, stating enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts deep organization of convection over a consolidating LLCC. Formative banding is wrapping into the LLCC per a TRMM microwave pass. SST's are favorable for additional development, and most models show a west-northwestwards movement towards Hawaii. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) per the JTWC. What happened?! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:49, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Maybe the CPac is trying to completely surprise us I guess :P But anyways, its going to be an epic fail should it be named. I'm getting sick of these epic fails.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:26, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * It won't be much more than a weak TS anyways, as shear is going to pick up quite a bit in the next few days. It won't even come close to Hawaii, but most storms in the Pacific don't do that anyways, due to the high pressure that typically shields the islands and the shear that comes out of the south pacific to tear up hurricanes that try to come close to them. Ryan1000 20:38, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * In reality, the chances were much higher all along. You have to remember that the CPHC is of nowhere near the intelligence of the NHC. You can't expect much from them. Shear right now is very favorable and systems in the deep tropics can spin up quickly (and as we saw with Fausto spin down quickly, though that is not as true in the CPAC). Like most storms that forms in this part of the world, it is close to the Great Hawaiian Shear; this shear is likely to kill it in a day or so. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:51, July 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * The first advisory has been issued by the CPHC - winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) and a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). One-C should continue moving northwestwards for the next couple of days. Slight strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, with a potential to reach tropical storm intensity tomorrow before unfavorable conditions take over. Luckily, no land areas will be affected. Hats off to the first CPAC system in 11 months! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:09, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Wali
YE said it well. TS one hour after the first advisory.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:24, July 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * A RECENTLY RECEIVED ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 35 TO 40 KT WITHIN

THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...CPHC HAS UPGRADED IT TO TROPICAL STORM WALI. WHAT IN THE NAME OF GOODNESS?! I swore I was last looking at a tropical depression one hour ago! What the heck is going on? Winds are at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) and the pressure is at 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg). JTWC reports winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). Gale-force winds extend 90 miles (160 km) from the center. The forecast CPHC peak has been raised to 50 knots (60 mph). Wali is not going to be the fail I thought... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:38, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm not very surprised it became Wali due to the fact I expected it to happen from the time it was upgraded to 80% this morning. I predict a strong tropical storm (around 65 mph) but HOPEFULLY it becomes a hurricane! And I could just imagine Andrew's reaction if it was upgraded to a hurricane by tonight (I really don't think that'll happen though, but it seems slightly possible!).-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:41, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * At least for now, I doubt it'll become a hurricane. It should peak around 45-55 knts though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:17, July 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict at most 60mph. I really doubt this is going to be a hurricane.Allanjeffs 06:04, July 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this isn't going to be a hurricane looks like. It's still 40 mph but I predict a peak of 50 mph before upper-level winds eat it up this weekend.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:23, July 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wali still has some deep convection, but its LLCC is located over the western edge of a fluctuating ball of convection. Dvorak estimates and recent satellite images have prompted the intensity downgrade to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg) per both the CPHC and JTWC. Low-level trade flow will eventually prompt a westward motion of Wali towards Hawaii. However, due to increasing wind shear, which is already affecting the system, should prompt complete dissipation within 72 hours. Wow, this was the fourth and fourth straight fail of the season. Stop wimping out, EPAC, like you have for every storm since Cristina! >:( Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:41, July 18, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Wali
Wali efficiency - cutting storm duration by 80%.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:47, July 18, 2014 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Wali
Poof.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:40, July 19, 2014 (UTC)

And its goneeeeeeee.Allanjeffs 05:57, July 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow. That shear basically stripped Wali down to a vortex. Neither the CPHC or SAB could obtain any Dvorak estimates. Since ex-Wali is moving towards Hawaii, its remnant trough may pose a rainfall for them as it moves northwestwards. Wali, assuming you do nothing to Hawaii, you are an epic fail of a tropical cyclone! Say hi to Fausto for me, will you? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:36, July 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * If you blinked you missed it. Wali was such a pathetic cyclone, and is a major disgrace to all TCs! Looks like we have Fausto version #2.0. I really don't think Hawaii will get that much impact anyways. #EPICFAIL -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:06, July 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Seriously, Steve? Is a hashtag really necessary? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:32, July 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think hashtags are fine even though they don't work on Wikia. Andrew even used it in his edit summary.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:23, July 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would personally rather not see hashtags used on here for hashtags' sake. I'm not against lightening the mood (heck, I regularly try to inject a dose of humor on here; humor adds flavor), but something rubs me the wrong way about hashtags being thrown around where they don't really belong. But hey, that's just my opinion. Do whatever floats your boat. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:41, July 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't have a problem with hashtags tbh they actually make me laugh when I see it for the epic fail.Allanjeffs 23:43, July 21, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (July 3)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Over 145W (not invested). - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  03:53, July 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI is on the CPHC TWO. It is rather disorganized, but gradual development is possible during the next 48 hours as it moves generally westwards. Chances of formation in the next 24 hours are now at 10%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Down and out. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:34, July 24, 2014 (UTC)

20%. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * We could see gradual development of this system as it moves westwards. I'm not sure what this will become. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:43, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Near 0%. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:49, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:16, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 15)
In C ATL. Moved off around the 15th. Too early to tell if it make it to the EPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Over Nicaragua. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  03:53, July 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * Into the EPac; this is the last of the six tropical waves. 123.126.110.18 05:07, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * This AOI is on the NHC five-day outlook. They state it could become a low pressure area later this week and then move westwards to west-northwestwards over the coming week. Chances of formation in the next five days are at 20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * Chances of formation for the next five days are now at 30% per the NHC. This looks like a potential candidate for our next tropical cyclone. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:17, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/40. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:56, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is a potential candidate for Hernan (or Genevieve if the above 30% (40%) invest doesn't develop).-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:54, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now 0% (50%). It might be either Hernan or Genevieve in a few days.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:02, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * At this rate, Hernan. Conditions look quite good. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:13, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually, I'm starting to think this might be Iselle, assuming the two invests above develop into a named storm. The EPac is sure going on a hot streak as we speak!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:54, July 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * Regardless of this AOI's future name, I am excited for it to develop into a low pressure area and then a TC. It's currently located a few hundred miles south of Mexico. Assuming 91E, 92E, and this system all develop, we would have ten named storms by the end of July. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:08, July 24, 2014 (UTC)

10/50. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:46, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict it'll become Hernan in a couple days.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:09, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Although this AOI is still rather disorganized, upper-level winds could become more conductive for development over the next few days. Chances of formation have risen to 20% for the next two days and 60% for the next five! I hope this becomes a hurricane!!! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:08, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope so too. If the above invest develops into Genevieve this might be Hernan, and I really root for a hurricane out of this!!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:22, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * I am in Brooking, OR on vacation so I can't check models since I'm at a hotel with crappy connection. However, I think given the location and warm SST's ahead, I'm inclined to think this may become a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:36, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Down to 20/50. Looks like it's a race for how many fish EPac can breed before August. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:26, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * It could still become something though, NHC mentions environmental conditions will become a little more favorable for it to develop into a TC. We might see Hernan out of this, but after all the fails we've had I'm not holding my breath for another hurricane.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:53, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/60. Models are not aggressive with this though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:15, July 25, 2014 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invest'd. 30 knts. Could go straight to Hernan/Iselle maybe. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:18, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has become more organized, and the NHC says upper-level winds are a little more conductive for development into a tropical depression. I think we could see our ninth tropical cyclone from this, but it should, at most, reach C1 intensity IMO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:22, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * More organization has occurred in Invest 94E, and we could see a tropical depression by tomorrow. Chances of development are at 60% for the next two days and 70% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:11, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think this could be a hurricane, but I have low confidence in such pick. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:39, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, there are semi-agressive. We have our first Kelvin Wave since Cristina, which should aid RI. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:46, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * 70/80. Has two more days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:39, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Gosh it has until Monday, At the rate we are going we are probably not seeing a hurricane until August.Allanjeffs 06:47, July 26, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E
New tropical depression, there's a really good chance of seeing a hurricane before August. NHC peaks it as a TS but it's in really good shape right now: compact CDO, detached outflow, etc. This could end the fishstreak too. It would be interesting to see a MH or even a cat-4 every month from May to October. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  09:45, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * 2011 had a major in every month from June to November. I have this Guillermo 09 feel with this system. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:10, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * I have more of a Narda feel. Forecast peak lowered to 50 kts. So much for Hernan keeping up its lucky streak this year -_- --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:02, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now that its peak was lowered, I am more torn on intensification. There is not much non-HWRF support (HWRF is the only one that makes it a hurricane, granted it is one of the best models). GFDL, GFS, Euro, SHIPS, and LGEM keep it less than 50 knts.l On the other hand, conditions look quite good and it's nicely organized. We'll see if it can quickly develop an inner core. If it does, I'd call for a minimal hurricane. If not, It'll be another dud. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:35, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Not bad, this invest was able to get it together. However, even though there is lots of deep convection, it is all confined to the northern quadrant, and Dvorak estimates keep Tropical Depression Eight-E's intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). I definitely could see this becoming a tropical storm, albeit a weak one. A strong mid-level ridge over the Western United States should accelerate Eight-E northwestwards for the next few days into cooler SST's and higher amounts of dry air and shear, which should prevent any significant intensification. Assuming the depression reaches its peak of 50 knots (60 mph) like the NHC expects, this will be Hernan's second weakest incarnation ever, behind only his 1984 predecessor which reached a measly 45 knots (50 mph). Where are our hurricanes?! Amanda and Cristina stole all the fun, apparently! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:48, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Fail after Fail the Epac can't get tired of sending them to us. The Atlantic might be more interesting in the coming weeks.Allanjeffs 17:09, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Allan, I know, right?! The EPAC is so boring right now!!! :) The JTWC report winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), and they have a similar forecast for Eight-E. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:23, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * The best hope I have for Hernan to-be is that he pulls a Eugene and bombs out (he was also only forecast to be a TS initially). But realistically, I'm not quite feeling a Eugene here, Hernan will more likely than not be a moderate to strong TS before weakening and dying out to sea. We have 4 invests/depressions in EPac/CPac, but none of them look like they'll get particularly strong. ATL is still quiet, but the next few weeks could look interesting as those waves off of Africa become better organized. Ryan1000 19:53, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Incredible as the MJO moves from the Epac to the Atlantic the Gfs, the CMC and the HRWF are now showing between two to three storms develop. The first being the AOI mention in the NHC outlook the second one from the wave leaving Africa. Btw this one is Hernan now. Allanjeffs 21:45, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS is picking up on 1-2 weak systems, yes. CMC is the CMC. HWRF only runs for invests. Right now, MJO is about to enter the EPAC. IT should be in the ATL in a week or so, but for now, the EPAC and its low pressure gradients could cause shear in parts of the ATL MDR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:30, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hernan
It's here according to Allan and the NHC. Forecast to be only a moderate TS. Why does this strong name have to be used for such a weakling? I root for Hernan to be a hurricane! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:22, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yep, Eight-E's cloud pattern became a little better organized, with more symmetric banding features around the center. Based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Hernan with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) and a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). Additional strengthening is expected from Hernan, and peak intensity of 50 knots (60 mph) should be reached in the next 24 to 36 hours before shear and dry air take over. Steve, Hernan has quite a stretch to become our season's third hurricane, and I am not counting on it. The mid-level ridge over the Western United States should move Hernan north-westwards until a low-level ridge steers it more westwards. While Hernan may just pull a stronger version of Elida, it has made EPAC history - this is the earliest date for a season's ninth named storm since Georgette '92, which formed on July 15. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:14, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hernan has a chance to become a hurricane. But it also has a chance to fizzle out like the last number of systems. Most likely it'll be a 50-55 knt TS. Ceiling is around 70 knts IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:30, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * *snaps fingers* Just like that, Hernan is up to 45 kts/1000 mbar, already making it the strongest storm since Cristina. The forecast peak is back up to 60 kts and the SHIPS RI Index shows a 30% chance of strengthening 30 kts during the next 24 hours. Hernan may not give us the Category 4 hurricane we've been thirsting for ever since the one-two punch of Amanda and Cristina, but it very well could break our weak TS streak. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:20, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict; some of what I said is in Dylan's post right above) Hernan has become even more organized this evening, with the formation of a CDO (central dense overcast) with cloud tops of -75C and a mid-level eye is present based on AMSU and SSM/IS imagery. Based on TAFB and SAFB satellite intensity estimates of 35 to 45 knots (40 to 50 mph) and UW-Madison technique estimates of 45 to 50 knots (50 to 60 mph), the NHC have raised Hernan's winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h), accompanied by a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). However, the NHC claims the windspeed measures may be a little conservative based on excellent cirrus outflow in the northern quadrant. Hernan should continue to move generally northwestwards alongside the southwestern portion of the strong mid-level ridge over the central United States for a couple of days, before a gradual slow westwards turn is predicted due to an increasing influence on low-level flow. Hernan is forecast to linger over very warm SST's of 29C and light VWS for the next 18 to 24 hours, which should induce some good intensification. While the official NHC takes the storm up to 60 knots (70 mph), the SHIPS Rapid Intensification model shows a 30% chance of 30 knot intensification in the next 24 hours. Afterwards, increasing shear and decreasing SST's will take over, causing steady weakening. Come on, Hernan! You already have the third highest windspeeds of a EPAC TC this year alongside Elida! I don't think you'll make it to where Amanda and Cristina did, but please become a modest hurricane! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:26, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sorry about that Andrew, normally I'm the one who's on the receiving end of edit conflicts! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:39, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * An you just edit conflicted me Dylan :P It's fine though. Anyhow, let me start this little mini-rant. No offense, but I don't understand the pessimism in here to be honest. And to be totally honest, I'm probs biased, but trying to look at it unbiasedly, the EPAC has producing better storms the past year or so than the ATL, and will likely be the same this year, but I won't get any more off-topic. We have 9 storms now which is better than nothing. Allen, why are you counting Hernan out already? I'm not saying for sure it'll become a hurricane, but my point is why all the pessimism and why you aren't at least giving it a chance? Right now, it is in a very good environment, and if trends continue, then, I think Hernan may become a hurricane. But it could very well pull a Nara/Alvin 13 and fail. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:08, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol Its Allan everyone always confuse my name even in Dr. Jeff Master blog. Like you said I am probably more biased to the Altantic than the Epac, and lets be honest Hernan might become a cat 1 or maybe at most cat2 but supposedly this season was suppose to be epic of majors because of an El Niño that has not yet materiaze. It will not pull an Alvin because it has alreadly long gone detach from the Itcz.  btw shear has been a  little above average that is why so far for the streak of weak storms.Allanjeffs 05:16, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) I think Hernan might be the storm we were looking for. Hernan could really bomb out as a MH like Amanda and Cristina. The moment TD8 formed I saw the potential it's capable of. BTW, YE, I could see the disappointment EPac has been putting out due to the high expectations from Amanda and Cristina, but in all honesty fish storms are better than no storms. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  05:25, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would not bet on it. Amandas and Cristina as a whole are rare. On the other hand, Hernan 08 bombed out, and there are some similarities. For now, I'm thinking a mid-level Cat 1. I see it too, but I don't get why Hernan is being counted out. Allan, well, we still have a ways to go at this point. We have 2 majors. 2009 had 5, had 0 at this point. Yes, near to slightly above average shear explains some things (though I've pointed out in the past that's its not the only one), but aside, conditions are great. As for El Nino, we've had El Nino-like conditions for quite some time, but no official El Nino. ENSO has been watching very strange as of late. The main reason why the season had so much hype was due to the possible super Nino that appeared inevitable for a while. This is unlikely to materialize, but all in all, the season has been preforming very close to expectations. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:23, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Last year was sad for the Epac but sadder for the Atlantic. The only MH was Raymound so all at all the Epac underperformed. Iselle might be stronger than Hernan if the models are correct. I hope they are correct.Allanjeffs 11:04, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * In my opinion, last year was a really fun EPAC season. Even without a whole lot of strong systems, it will still great to see storms like Henriette and Raymond come and go. Anyway, back to Hernan. Satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate the storm is still continuing to intensify, and two ASCAT passes have found winds near 50 knots (60 mph) to the east of the center. Based on TAFB and UW-Madison data, the NHC have raised Hernan's winds to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) with an accompanying pressure of 997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg). The storm continues to be steered northwestwards on the southwestern periphery of a strong STR over the southern United States. After two to three days, low-level trade flow should steer Hernan more westwards. The system has strengthened rather rapidly - 20 knots (25 mph) - in 12 hours, and there still remains another 12 hours for it to get even stronger - perhaps around 65 knots (75 mph) like the NHC and JTWC both expect. Following this, however, Hernan will move into increasing amounts of VWS, prompting gradual weakening, and then more rapid weakening in ~4 to 5 days due to increasing shear and SST's of only ~25C. I don't see an Amanda or Cristina coming; instead I see something more like Cosme from last year. As a side note, Hernan's 1984 predecessor is still his weakest! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:06, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

Regarding 2013, it was a good season. Yea, the lack of majors were kinda annoying, but c'mon, it got 20 storms. That's tied for the seventh most TS's in a year. It was interesting to see so many storms form in a short period of time. Raymond was kina the savior, and Manuel man though bad, was a very neat storm to track. Back to Hernan, the ATCF brings it to 60 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:40, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Infrared imagery and a microwave overpass show Hernan is still putting on intensity, with well developed banding features in the northwestern quadrant and cloud tops of -80 to -90C. Also, a well-defined inner core with a partial eyewall has been noted. Based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-Madison, the NHC has upped Hernan's winds to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h), accompanied by a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.36 inHg). Gale-force winds extend 60 miles (95 km) from the center. He's just a blink of an eye away from becoming our third hurricane!!! :) And in the current favorable conditions, Cortes (Get it? :P) has about eight to 12 more hours left to become the hurricane system we all have been waiting for! However, increasing shear and decreasing SST's will prompt steady weakening of Hernan, and most models agree on degeneration in ~96 hours. The same forecast motion I described above should continue to persist for the next few days. Come on, buddy! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:49, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * In terms of number of major hurricanes, 2013 had only 19 worldwide, which is second to 1977 (10 majors) for the lowest number ever. Hernan might just be able to pull off a minimal hurricane, but don't expect it to Eugene out or anything like that. Ryan1000 16:21, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * I think Hernan might be able to pull off a Category 2 at most. C'mon Hernan! Become a hurricane by the next advisory! And don't disappoint us! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:49, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * I am pretty sure is a hurricane now. The 5pm advisory might rest my point. I doubt it will be stronger than 85mph at most.Allanjeffs 18:36, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Hernan
Yep.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:35, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * 65 kts/992 mbar. Should be its peak according to NHC, but yay, we finally have another hurricane! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:39, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * You beat me by a few minutes Isaac! :P 75 mph/992 mbar as of the latest advisory. :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:41, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yes! Hernan had the eye on satellite imagery, and TAFB estimates have just given it the winds and pressure! Upper-level outflow is quite symmetrical and impressive for now, but that should not last for long as it enters cooler SST's and higher amounts of wind shear. Hernan is expected to shift gradually west-northwestwards under the influence of a ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over the Southwestern U.S. As the storm becomes more shallow, it should begin heading generally westwards following lower troposphere steering flow. Even if this is all Hernan can do, I am glad to report he stopped our TS spam. :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:54, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * It did it! Good job Hernan. I am proud of you. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:04, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not going to be as strong as I'd like it to be, but at least we got another hurricane. And the 1984 Hernan remains the only Hernan that peaked as a weakling TS. Ryan1000 23:08, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF keeps it at 65 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:32, July 28, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hernan (2nd time)
Powering back down at this point, 55 kt/996 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:30, July 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well at least it became a hurricane (even if very briefly) and broke the weak TS streak! I wanted Hernan to be used for a stronger storm than just 75 mph but I guess not :(-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:09, July 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hernan may hit mexico (Who left this? -Andy)


 * Hernan continues to degrade in apperance, and all its deep convection is confined to its southern quadrant. Based on SAB and TAFB estimates, the storm's intensity has been lowered to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). With SST's dropping below 26C and moderately strong SSW shear kicking in, Hernan is expected to become a remnant low in ~36 hours per the NHC, but some models predict even faster degeneration. To the user who left the comment above mine, I do not think that will happen. Hernan is moving WNW away from Mexico, which should continue for another couple of days under the influence of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern U.S. As the storm continues to die, it continues to move westwards as the trade-level flow takes over. While Cortes was not as strong as some of us expected, it at least became a weak hurricane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:32, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hernan
¡Adios amigo! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:08, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Bye, Hernan! I applaud you for breaking the weak TS streak and becoming a hurricane! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:48, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 12)
GFS is aggressive with this in the EPAC. Moved off of Africa around July 12, and in the E Carib atm. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * In EPAC. Behind 91E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Atlantic forum link: 1 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:24, July 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * Gradual development is possible from this AOI, and I hope it develops. We have a train of five waves in the EPAC right now! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:09, July 24, 2014 (UTC)

0/30. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:48, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope it develops too! The EPac is getting really active with all these tropical waves! If it is named it'll be Iselle assuming the two invests above become named.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:11, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Development is becoming more likely for this AOI as well! Chances for development are now at 40% for the next five days!!! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/50. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:55, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's getting more likely to be "Iselle" if the above two invests develop. Hopefully this also becomes a hurricane!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:24, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/40, running out of time. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:29, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think at very best, it'll be a depression, but it probably won't develop at all anyways. I really hope it won't be named or it would be  ANOTHER fail! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:56, July 25, 2014 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
50/50. Getting close. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:16, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * YE, I would not be so confident. Although shower activity has become more organized in Invest 93E, it only has about 24 more hours until upper-level winds and proximity to Genevieve hinder its development. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:20, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * At the rate of Invest 93E's development, we could see a very brief tropical depression by tomorrow right behind Genevieve. Chances of formation are now at 60% for the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * I am confident since it's not wasting any time. It aint that far off IMO, only problem is the convection is displaced a little to the south. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:34, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * 70/70. Will likely be upgraded to a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:07, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * The JTWC has issued a TCFA on Invest 93E. Currently located at 14.1N 125.2W, steady improvement has occurred with the system's LLCC and centralized convection is building under moderate amounts of VWS. With SST's of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius and good equatorial outflow, I think a tropical depression might just be possible. They report winds of 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph, 40 to 50 km/h) with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.76 inHg). Let's see what happens! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:29, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 93E's shower activity has become more disorganized, and upper-level winds are beginning to close in. We could still see a tropical depression, but chances are down to 60% for both the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:40, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm starting to not think this'll develop at all because of the fact that upper-level winds will eat it up by Sunday. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:24, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds are becoming more unfavorable, and although there is still some potential in Invest 93E, time has ran out. Chances have dropped to 50% for both the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:00, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * 40/50. 123.126.110.26 06:16, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Shower activity remains disorganized, and environmental conditions are rather hostile for development. However, some development could occur later on in the next few days as it enters more welcoming conditions, just like Genevieve. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:10, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * If it develops it'll probably only be a weak to moderate TS, even if it enters favorable conditions. I don't expect much out of this invest. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:52, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has increased in Invest 93E, but it remains poorly organized and upper-level winds are not favorable for development. Chances of formation are down to 30% for the next two and 40% for the next five. The TCFA for this system has been cancelled by the JTWC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:29, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/30. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:30, July 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * It lost its chance in becoming anything. Down to 10% -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:10, July 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 93E is even more disorganized, and unfavorable environmental conditions, along with ex-Genevieve, will likely prevent any redevelopment. Chances of formation are now at near 0% for both the next 48 and 120 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:25, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * In CPAC, 10%. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:54, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * 93E still could become something, so I am not writing off the system yet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:48, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm getting a bit bored of this system, just lingering around for the past few days without developing. I really don't think it'll become something but there still seems to be a tiny chance. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:02, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

Off the TWO for a while now near 138W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:00, July 30, 2014 (UTC)