Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season

The Hall of Fame returns
Earlier today I promoted TG and Steve to new administrators and No. 1 Mobile to a rollback on Hurricane Wiki per the votes they received on the community vote page. Although he wasn't promoted, I talked with Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) on revitalizing Eric (SkyFury's) Hurricane Hall of Fame, which was started many years ago, but wasn't gone that far into and Eric hasn't posted since the end of the 2012 AHS forum, and he's probably retired by now. But with many more notable storms since Eric's (presumed) retirement, I'd like to start it up again and continue his legacy with inducting more storms into the Hall of Fame. Currently he has a record of storms from the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific, and hasn't gone into the other basins, but with many more users on the wiki since last year's historic AHS, I think we can get a good pool of voters for the hall of fame this year and in coming years. What do you guys think? Ryan1000 23:05, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

August
I think it's time to add this section, even if there is literally no disturbance that is present in this basin right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:55, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic is very boring right now. Hopefully something forms soon... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:14, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Zzzzzzzzzzz...  Send Help Please (talk) 08:56, August 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * CSU mid-season outlooks are out. Numbers raised from 11-4-1 to 12-5-1 after the two July hurricanes. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: 700 miles west of the Azores
FINA-FREAKIN'-LLY! 10/20 as of latest advisory, will most likely flop, but at least it's something! Also, that's got to be one of the weirdest projected development areas I've ever seen. Send Help Please (talk) 07:56, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Nah, watch it somehow develop into Debby and strengthen to a hurricane. :P Leeboy100 Hello!! 08:28, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
TropicalTidbits actually has this up as an invest. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, that was fast.  Send Help Please (talk) 14:32, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Not every day we see a storm moving in a southwesterly direction, especially in this part of the Atlantic. But it probably won't become much; if it becomes Debby, it'll probably remain well out at sea. Ryan1000 16:10, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/30 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:16, August 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/40. Might wind up having to eat my words about this flopping.  Send Help Please (talk) 07:36, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 20/20. Send Help Please (talk) 02:05, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Glad to see something here for the first time in forever (lol). Unfortunately, might be a flop at this point. I still hope it can somehow become Debby though. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 50/50. What.  Send Help Please (talk) 06:04, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Debby
How did this happen...Ryan1000 14:59, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * debby was just impatient for 15 minutes of fame --yare yare daze (talk) 15:01, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

I wasn't really expecting this at first but it wont last long. 40mph and 1008mb.-Nickcoro (talk) 15:05, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Waste of a name.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * next ...zzz... --yare yare daze (talk) 15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

What even. Wasn't even expecting this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:07, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this shouldn't have been named...but oh well. What a fail. Ryan1000 15:10, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Debby is currently weakest NHem TS-strength system for this year. What a joke. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:17, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * What a waste of a name... 😑 This formation was so unexpected. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:00, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Kinda expected Debby from 97L but I did not expect it to be named so soon. Debby has just formed but I know she will definitely be back in 2024. Come back stronger Debby, but be a fishspinner like this one too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:08, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * This was unexpected. I thought this wouldn't even form from the start, although before it was named, it did looked better. Debby just pulled an Emily I guess. Also the NHC just named this straight away for the second time this season, same thing with Alberto. Oh well, what a waste.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   17:51, August 7,
 * Send Help Please (talk) 20:17, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still the same intensity for Advisory # 2. It is looking hopeless for any further intensification, and it may not even become fully tropical. What a disgraceful waste of a name. Debby's anthem... *facepalm* ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:29, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I find it interesting how... erm, subtropical... this season has been so far. Of the four storms we've had so far, only Chris wasn't subtropical at any point in its life. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:58, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Debby
And she transitions to a tropical storm. 45 mph, 1003 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:45, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Uh, yay?  Send Help Please (talk) 10:17, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * zzz zzz ZZZ. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:45, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm just glad to finally have something to track in the Atlantic, as long as Debby doesn't turn out to be indicative of the rest of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:52, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * debby's theme song yare yare daze (talk) 17:03, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * (Un)fortunately, she probably will be. With a strengthening El Nino and less than ideal conditions across the Atlantic, I'm not really expecting an active Atlantic season out of 2018. Ryan1000 17:11, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, me too. Although the MDR of the Atlantic is warming, there is still the SAL and wind shear across the Atlantic, so even then, I don't think this season will be much compared to the two previous years. Especially if we have a subtropical storm in the Atlantic in August, which I think is rare for the Atlantic.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     05:29, August 08, 2018 (UTC)


 * 2013 part ii tbh lol --yare yare daze (talk) 17:31, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Honestly, after the destruction of last year, I wouldn’t mind the Atlantic being quiet this year. Then again, we could get a 1992-esque season where one storm is incredibly destructive, but hopefully that won’t happen. Leeboy100 Hello!! 19:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, this year will probably be close to 2006 (which also used this year's naming list) which gave people a break after 2005 (the costliest year on record for its time, and also used the same naming list as last year). Ryan1000 13:06, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

2004/5: modoki doki el nino

2009/10: similar el nino setup

2018/19: hellish 2019? also considering the fact that italian storm next year who will never settle for anything below hurricane intensity... who knows what he might pull next year?!?? 🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 18:04, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby
As expected, Debby is now on her way out. Try again in 6 years, Little Debby. (As The Weather Channel refers to her as) Leeboy100 Hello!! 21:14, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * And with this, the Atlantic falls into slumber... again...  Send Help Please (talk) 06:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Officially off the NHC site. Look at it this way, at least she didn’t cause any harm in her short lifespan. Leeboy100 Hello!! 06:32, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Tfw GFS doesn't show its usual fantasy storms... ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
Nevermind on that whole slumber thing, a wild AOI appears. 10/20.  Send Help Please (talk) 14:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * I honestly don't see this developing to a tropical cyclone. There is high wind shear across the Caribbean. However this does has a small shot of attaining tropical depression status.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     19:54, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Upping the numbers without stealing a name. I am okay with that. Send Help Please  (talk) 07:00, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Me too, if a system is going to just stay extremely weak, it should only peak as a TD without stealing a precious name off the lists. This one is down to 10/10, and development is not going to happen unless we get a surprise. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:01, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now dead.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     15:35, August 12, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: North Central Atlantic
Another AOI appears, this one with 0/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:54, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Debby 2.0 anyone? Ryan1000 12:26, August 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * I hope not... Anything but another pathetic name-stealer, unless this can somehow peak at 60+ mph. I was a bit surprised Debby managed to reach 50 mph, which although still pathetic, is better than how I expected it to perform. If this one develops, we might have another subtropical system. Alberto, Beryl, and Debby were all subtropical at one point in life. This system could make it 4 out of 5 systems being subtropical at one point in life (it's already 3 out of 4). I doubt I've ever tracked an Atlantic season with so many subtropical systems. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:08, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Now marked as an invest. Also now 10/20. Yeah, I also had never tracked a season with so many subtropical storms, but I'm assuming the high number of subtropical storms id because the subtropics are favorable for tropical cyclone development while the MDR isn't that favorable this year. Having a subtropical storm in August doesn't seem right lol. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     15:41, August 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/30. Idk if this will develop though.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     22:49, August 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/20 because of strong upper-level winds prevailing. I don't think we'll see any further development from this. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:38, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sad to see such a rad name like Ernesto go for a potential flop. BAKA. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 23:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Back up to 20/30. They've actually removed the mention of "strong upper-level winds" from their TWO, and now conditions are expected to be a bit more favorable by mid-week before it enters cooler waters late-week. Ernesto, anyone? ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:36, August 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * 40/40 now. The TWO wording is eerily similar to those written for Debby's precursor. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:54, August 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nagisa from Clannad's restaurant becoming a hurricane LOL! --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:56, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

Now 60/60 and looking very organized on satellite imagery. At this point, I would be shocked if it doesn't become Ernesto (or at least a subtropical depression) by tomorrow morning. Here comes a re-Debby and yet another subtropical system... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:48, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agreed. Even though we may have our 4th subtropical cyclone, I must admit an "E" named storm in mid-August isn't too bad, although most of the atorms so far were weak (expection of Chris)  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:05, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

80/80. I really hope something will come from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:21, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Five
Here comes Ernesto! Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:51, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Geez, they might as well just rebrand this season as the 2018 Atlantic Subtropical Storm Season. The NHC even pointed out this season's subropical tendencies in their discussion.  Send Help Please (talk) 11:40, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * I have to say Ernesto is my third-favorite name on the list after Gordon and Sara, so it saddens me to see this name potentially go to a failure, but c'est la vie... forecast peak of 45 kts as of now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:19, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * This should become Ernesto soon, but it'll probably just be a repeat of Debby and dissipate while moving northeast out to sea. It may not turn fully tropical like Debby did though. Ryan1000 13:02, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Ernesto
Same time as Lane was named, we have SS Ernesto. Expected to peak below hurricane status. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     14:57, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Another good name assigned to a pathetic storm. Sigh...  Send Help Please (talk) 14:57, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ernesto is basically a re-Debby. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 16:40, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Well hey, look on the bright side, even if this year doesn't produce much from here on out, it's at least a break from the historic devastation from last year's AHS. Ryan1000 17:33, August 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * That’s exactly what I’ve been saying all along, Ryan. I honestly hope we just have nothing but fishies the rest of the season. Leeboy100 Hello!! 22:49, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Good point, but I don't think it's a crime to wish for at least one Lee or Jose-like storm that puts on a good show but doesnt have any major land impacts. Send Help Please  (talk) 03:05, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agreed that having a season filled with fishies is much better than a season with powerful monsters causing devastation. However, these fishies should at least try, like Lee or Jose did. I probably sound a bit insensitive for saying this, but I'd take a re-2017 over a season filled with nothing but weak fish name-stealing TSs anyday (think of a 2013-type season, but without storms like Ingrid). I just wish a C5 fishspinner could occur in this basin... It would be a celebration here on these forums if that happened. Back to Ernesto, it is looking like nothing more than a pathetic name-waster. I am sickened to see a relatively good name like Ernesto go to a weak failure STS. What's worse... this may not even become tropical *facepalm* ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:13, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * To be honest, having the fifth storm in mid-August means the pace so far is decent. But I agree that these fishes should actually try to do stuff instead of peaking as weak TSs. I hadn't started tracking TCs in 2013, but I can imagine the agony of having TS after TS not doing anything. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:26, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ernesto
Now tropical, though it doesnt truly matter as this storm is going to be dead soon anyway. All this really accomplishes is creating another parallel with Debby. Send Help Please (talk) 23:04, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Glad it became tropical, although it doesn't help the fact that it's still a pathetic name-waste. Should become post-tropical by tomorrow or so. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:00, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

2013 was a dead season in intensity and ACE, but even a season like that wasn't without some notability (like list 5 has always been), as Ingrid was retired. I wouldn't be surprised if next year (which used the same naming list) has something notable too, since list 5 still has yet to go one usage without having a retired name. Hopefully this year doesn't do that (since it hasn't been that lucky for retirements), but still sees a storm or two like Gordon/Helene '06 or Michael '12. Ryan1000 14:31, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actual title of actual UK news story: UK SHOCK WEATHER FORECAST: Tropical Storm Ernesto heads STRAIGHT for Britain - MAPPED Send Help Please  (talk) 16:07, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * How is this thing even still alive, it's name can't even fit on the NHC's map anymore.  Send Help Please (talk) 00:09, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol ernesto come at me bro --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:32, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ernesto may be the weakest storm of the season so far, but at least it's impressive how far north he's remained tropical. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:37, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol, I'm not interested in nagisa's restaurant passing over me, like it won't do any harm to me lole --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:40, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Ernesto is somehow still going despite the horrendous satellite presentation, and you can barely even see the icon on the NHS's map. Definitely the superior storm of the North Atlantic twins imo, even if Debby was a little stronger. Send Help Please (talk) 02:39, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Advisory 12: Still going! 45 mph/999 mbars! It's not even visible on NHC's page anymore except for a tiny red tail. I don't think I've ever seen an Atlantic system stay tropical so far north. Considering the terrible satellite presentation, it will almost certainly be post-tropical by the next advisory. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:43, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto
And it finally happened. Final NHC advisory issued. Ireland & UK needs to prepare for any effects from this one though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:21, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, this storm finally died. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:29, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Given Joestar's references, I feel as if this  is the appropriate song to play as Ernesto dies. Send Help Please  (talk) 13:32, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * SHP sure thing, but actually ernesto ain't doing anything to me, just clouds, and this song suits this piece of flop better LOL! ¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 14:08, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the song I posted would've fit better if Ernesto was a strong fishspinner and we were actually sad to see it go. Oh well, the feelstaurant will get another chance in 6 years. Send Help Please  (talk) 16:39, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Goodbye to a name-stealer, even though it was resilient and stayed tropical so far north in the end. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:07, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
We have another AOI in the MDR, already marked as an invest, currently at 10/20. Conditions in the Caribbean Sea won't be favorable it seems. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     01:02, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * This could be one to watch, as it looks to have a chance of making it into the Gulf of Mexico where two loop eddies await. Send Help Please  (talk) 03:09, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * For now I doubt this will become much in the short term, maybe a TS at most before encountering the eastern Caribbean. If it can survive the unfavorable conditions there, we might see something significant by the time it reaches the GOM (hopefully not though). This is already reminding me a whole lot like Harvey... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:17, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 20/20, but only has until late Saturday to develop... I would not bet on this becoming anything by then. But like I said earlier, hopefully it doesn't become a monster in the Gulf of Mexico. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:02, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead.  Send Help Please (talk) 00:11, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * The MDR is taking a while to fire up... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:08, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

Don't expect it to fire up as crazy as last year did; after all, there's an El Nino in effect and it's expected to keep this year's AHS near to below-average. Ryan1000 04:39, August 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this year shouldn't be anywhere NEAR last year's activity. At least it will be a break for those affected by the devastating storms of last year (like Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate), unless we get another devastating system later in the season (hope not). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   Wish me  a happy birthday!  🎉  21:53, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

I agree, it's doubtful we'll see any Cat. 5 Cape Verde hurricanes hurtling towards us like last year. If we do get anything bad this year, it'll probably be home-grown like Joaquin or a wave that manages to survive the trip across the Atlantic and into the Carribean or the Gulf, like this wave had the potential to do. Also, happy birthday Steve! Send Help Please (talk) 00:40, August 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, while it is pretty unlikely we will see a C5 this year, we may still get a major hurricane, or worse, a destructive/deadly hurricane, but let's hope that won't happen, especially after last year. The MDR is warming as well, and there are still some shear lying around.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:00, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging from Africa
The Atlantic once again wakes up, and a tropical wave expected to emerge off from Africa, currently at 0/20. The NHC also states this: "Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by early next week." ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:45, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally there is something with potential to develop in the MDR. The region has been sleeping for what seemed like ages. Considering this is over Africa atm, it appears very likely to become Florence with all that ocean up ahead. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:02, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Let's hope this doesn't affect the Caribbean much. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:56, August 23, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 0/10 but who knows, the Atlantic might get another surprise from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:27, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hopefully. I'm sick of the inactivity that the Atlantic is bringing us (especially in the MDR). As long as this keeps away from land, I'm hoping this can manage to become a hurricane. Unfortunately it's likely that the Atlantic will keep feeding us these disappointing failures, and this AOI might not be an exception. We're nearing the peak of the season for Christ's sake. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:27, August 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/0, development not expected in the MDR due to its fast forward speed. If this survives to the GoM however, like the GFS has been showing at very long range (300++ hours from now), there might be trouble. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:46, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Send Help Please (talk) 20:01, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Well, that's El Nino for you...but we still have all of September and October left, we could see a potential MDR major or two later on. Ryan1000 13:31, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ughh... I'm just not used to the Atlantic being so dead at this time of year. A storm has to form in the MDR at some point soon? We're near the peak of the season, and the Atlantic looks hopelessly dead. The basinwide satellite imagery looks more like January than late August. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:31, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa later this week according to the 5-day TWO. 0/20 for now. Send Help Please (talk) 10:22, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/30. For a past few days, models show multiple storm forming at the start of September in the MDR, and one on the Gulf.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:23, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * GFS model is showing a hurricane with pressures in the 970s. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:31, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * For now, I'd take the models with a grain of salt. The Atlantic's MDR region has been very inactive over the past weeks and I'd be surprised if there was a burst at the start of September. Hopefully we do see Hurricane Florence though, to make up for its 2012 incarnation. At least it seems like some activity is on the horizon, as long as it means no land will be threatened. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:41, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. Send Help Please  (talk) 11:51, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/60, and this should be invested anytime now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:19, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Both of the global models develop this into Florence down the road, but recurve it out to sea before hitting the U.S, let alone Bermuda (unlike the 2006 Florence). Also, if it doesn't become Florence before September, we'll only have a two-storm August, both storms of which were weak, short-lived fishspinners in the far north Atlantic, which would the quietest August regarding ACE in 21 years, since 1997. Ryan1000 21:27, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 40/70, and I'm still suprised this hasn't been invested.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:56, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Florence is coming. 60/80, but why is this thing still not invested? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:03, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * That's probably because it's still over land, but this seems like a poor excuse. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:19, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Okay, it is finally invested. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:33, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six
Now a Tropical Storm Warning for Southern Cape Verde. 30mph/1007mb Nickcoro (talk) 15:07, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Potential tropical cyclones are actually numbered like depressions are, I learned that from last year when PTC 10 was actually 10L, so this is 06L, though it'll probably be Florence soon. Due to the northernly position of this storm, it should remain away from any major landmasses down the road, apart from maybe Bermuda (and of course Cape Verde). Ryan1000 15:36, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 90/90, and fingers crossed Cape Verde makes it through nice and easy. By the time I wake up tomorrow morning, I hope to see it be Florence. Finally we are seeing something develop in the MDR... This looks to become a classic Cape-Verde hurricane down the road, and hopefully it will avoid land (except the CV islands). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:35, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Finally a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:55, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence
And now this has been named Florence. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:21, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane strength is no longer in the forecast, but it could still happen down the road. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, only little strengthening is forecast for now. NHC says that Florence is currently over somewhat cool waters and light shear, but that should flip to warmer waters but higher shear. These factors will limit strengthening, but I still won't be surprised if Florence can pull off hurricane intensity. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

SST's aren't too bad actually, just about 80 degrees Fahrenheit, but the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) isn't giving Florence much of a break in terms of dry air, not now or down the road. Bad news, however, is if Flo doesn't get as strong as a hurricane, then she could, as indicated by the 00Z run of the Euro yesterday, end up moving farther west towards the U.S. eastern seaboard or Atlantic Canada. So hoping for Flo to get stronger sooner may actually be a good thing, as that means she'll be more likely to be a fishspinner that'll recurve northeast down the road. Ryan1000 05:33, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is changing little in intensity, and nothing interesting is expected to come out of this storm until 120 hours, when it'll enter more favorable conditions such as warmer waters and lower shear. I hope Florence can try its hardest to lessen the chance of it being a threat to the U.S. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:00, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Florence is ingesting some dry air as we speak from the SAL and SST's, though not frigid, are less than ideal for a hurricane to form. Flo is also a fairly small storm like Beryl earlier this year, so she's vulnerable to dissipating to even slight changes in the environment around her. But that tiny size could also come in her favor and cause her to RI later in the forecast period, like how Beryl unexpectedly became a hurricane in the MDR. I just hope it happens sooner rather than later, because if Florence does RI down the road but doesn't do so fast enough, Flo could be a serious threat down the road to the U.S. or to Bermuda. The current run of the GFS takes Florence north and east of Bermuda but eventually takes her to a landfall in Newfoundland, but the Euro has doubled down on their previous forecast and now makes Florence a 955 mbar category 3 storm heading straight for the mid-Atlantic states or New England. While it's 9 days ahead, the Euro is still typically the more reliable model between it and the GFS. I'm hoping the GFS is right on this one, because we don't want Florence to be a severe storm for the east coast, especially after the beating the U.S. saw from last year on the Gulf coast and northeastern Caribbean Islands. Ryan1000 05:39, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Flo is now strengthening slightly, up to 65 mph and 997 mbars, but shear is expected to keep her in check the next day or two, plus the storm still has some dry air to deal with. The Euro is still insistent on Florence heading farther west towards a U.S. landfall, but the GFS wants to turn Florence northward, though the latest 12Z run takes her slightly closer to Bermuda than before. Flo is still a storm to watch out for. Ryan1000 16:07, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Considering how full of it the GFS is being with Gordon. I am more inclined to believe the Euro in regards to Florence. --Whiplash (talk) 17:12, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence now 70/995 per latest advisory, just below hurricane strength, however, the NHC cone still has Florence staying as a TS, though that may be unlikely.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:39, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * A bit surprised Florence is already near hurricane intensity, but contrary to the NHC forecast, I won't be too surprised if it intensifies 5 more mph to briefly reach hurricane strength before it encounters less favorable conditions. After 5 days, Florence should certainly become a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:37, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

I actually think the GFS may get the track of Flo right, but they're being too aggressive on the intensity of the storm on it's projected track; the current run projects a 920 mbar storm moving right north of Bermuda before turning northeast out to sea or towards Newfoundland. I doubt Florence will get that powerful, but that general track may be accurate down the road, unless Florence stays weak or weakens faster and stays further south than the current forecast. I don't buy for a second that Flo will move west-southwest by the time she reaches Bermuda and eventually hit Jacksonville or Cape Canaveral, Florida as a 971 mbar storm as the Euro currently shows. If Flo does reach or threaten the U.S. east coast, it'll be from the southeast (passing through or just north of the Bahamas) if she stays weaker. Ryan1000 05:16, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Still below hurricane strength, but expected to finally become a hurricane by the end of the forecast (Sunday). Bermuda may still need to prepare for this one, as Florence may pass close to the island. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:46, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence
Finally. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:41, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Flo could weaken to a TS soon due to shear, but she's forecast to regain category 1 strength by the time she reaches a point near Bermuda late in the forecast period. Ryan1000 15:50, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I am concerned about what the strong high pressure system over New England could do to Florence. If Florence is weak enough, the high pressure system may bring Florence towards the East Coast, where some models explodes Florence, while other models explodes Florence early enough to influence the two high pressure systems (one on NE and another near Europe, and put Florence out to sea. This is too early to know for sure but its something to note.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     16:54, September 04, 2018 (UTC)
 * Winds increased to 85 mph, pressure down to 984 mb. However, Florence is still expected to weaken back to a TS in the next few days/hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now an 85 kt/976 mbar Category 2 and forecast to maintain hurricane strength for the rest of the forecast period. Chris might not last much longer as the season's intensity champion at this rate. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:51, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

September
September is just around the corner; might as well add this section now, especially now that the Hispaniola AOI is expected to form in September – if it ever forms. Add that AOI to this section if it organizes to a TD or a TS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:02, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Hispaniola
Not officially invested or mentioned on TWO, but many global models are hinting that this tropical wave could spell trouble for interests from Bahamas all the way to the Gulf Coast. Because of the timing of the wave near Africa, I would throroughly expect this system to be Gordon. Waters are warm in the GOM and systems that get there don't play around or abide by the rules. Let's keep our eyes open for him. Owen 11:59, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm assuming the AOI south of Hispaniola the NHC now has is this AOI you mentioned. It is forecast to enter the Gulf in the coming days. Currently at 0/10 due to land proximity.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:08, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * And strong upper-level winds are currently hitting the system, but conditions could allow for development in the long term. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a GOM monster... I never had a good feeling about the name "Gordon". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:38, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

This is still at 0/10, but the NHC expects development to be more likely when it reaches a point southwest of Florida in the GOM down the road. Also, the Euro is picking up on two more waves behind PTC 6. Depending on the development of those 3 storms, we could be up to Isaac by the 2nd week of September or so. But because of the Bermuda High's placement, these storms are currently expected to turn west-northwest and eventually northeast out to sea. GFS no longer makes PTC 6 a hit on Bermuda down the road. Ryan1000 18:43, August 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up 10/40... Send Help Please  (talk) 15:36, September 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * Development area extended from the Florida Panhandle to south of Louisiana and near Texas. The long-range GFS even took this to the Texas/Mexico border. Hopefully this AOI doesn't get too strong before hitting land somewhere in the Gulf. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/50. Since the start of 2018, I had an eerily feeling for the names Gordon, Helene and Michael.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:33, September 02, 2018 (UTC)


 * I have the same feeling for those exact 3 names. If this becomes Gordon, it could explode in the GOM, strike the Gulf Coast, and fulfill our fear. Or if this doesn't become strong, it could be a major flooding disaster like Allison or a weak Harvey. But let's hope it doesn't become either of these. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:37, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

I've had bad feelings for Florence and Isaac on this year's naming list, as well as Gordon, the former two because they're the only original "F" and "I" names since 1979 that haven't been retired (though Isaac came close last time in 2012), and Gordon may eventually want to avenge his 1994 snub. Though it may not happen with this storm if it becomes Gordon, assuming it doesn't get too strong in the GOM down the road. Ryan1000 05:23, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/60 now. Perhaps Gordon may come from this one. Let's see whether this becomes Hermine 2.0 or Julia 2016 version 2, or worse, Allison/Isaac 2.0. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:43, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Raised to 50/80. Gordon is coming, even if this ain't an invest yet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:36, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Now it's invested, per Tropical Tidbits. Still at 50/80 on the NHC's TWO. Ryan1000 17:26, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 70/90 per TWO.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:44, September 02, 2018 (UTC)


 * And the Atlantic has finally came back to life. I am not looking forward to any destruction though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:04, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven
Now a PTC. Here's hoping that shear will keep this at bay. Send Help Please (talk) 21:24, September 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to peak at 60 mph before striking the mouth of the Mississippi delta. Unless it unexpectedly RI's, I doubt it'll be too severe for the New Orleans area. Ryan1000 21:31, September 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, I had a feeling all year that "Gordon" would be something possibly significant. Due to this, I won't be extremely surprised if it actually tries to RI in the Gulf or, if not, it turns into a major flooding disaster. Hopefully none of my scare-predictions come true and it is only going to be a tropical storm when it makes landfall in Louisiana, and not be anything bad. The NHC forecast does seem to slow it down over Texas-Oklahoma as a dissipating system, and that might be a hint of what's to come with future forecasts (like seeing it stalling over land, potentially causing major flooding). Hopefully not though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:10, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Dylan also noted a trend back in 2012 (the last time Gordon was used) that may be broken with this storm; over the past 40 years, every season with the 8 in it's one's place has had its "G" name retired: Greta in 1978, Gilbert in 1988, Georges in 1998, and Gustav in 2008, but it looks like Gordon of 2018 won't be doing that. Ryan1000 05:44, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gordon
It skipped tropical depression status and immediately became this. It is forecast to strike New Orleans with 60 mph winds by Wednesday. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:45, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Landfall shifted a bit to the north now, and is expected to strike the Louisiana-Mississippi border. Currently, Gordon is hitting south Florida near Homestead, just south of Miami. Rainfall is the only real threat from a weak TS like Gordon. Ryan1000 13:44, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Watch issued from the mouth of the Pearl River to the MS/AL border. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:46, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to reach 70 mph. There is a chance that we might see another Hurricane Gordon from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:31, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Hmm...Gordon's been organizing a bit lately, maybe he could reach cat 1 strength just before hitting the Gulf Coast like Nate did in October of last year. Ryan1000 16:10, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * I think RI is looking increasingly likely as it is already forming what looks like the beginning of a an eyewall/core and it has only been offshore Florida for like 2 hours. I wouldn't rule out even a Category 2 in a worst case scenario. It is extremely small and becoming increasingly well defined. --Whiplash (talk) 16:39, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also can I take this moment to say the 12Z GFS is totally bonkers with its prediction and should probably be ignored since it isn't representing this storm well at all. --Whiplash (talk) 17:04, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon now up to 50/1007, and according to this tweet, Gordon may have started to RI.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:50, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * The change is official as of latest advisory, and the NHC notes the possibility of it hitting Cat. 1, though it looks to be getting it's act together very fast. This brings back memories of the NHC predicting a Cat. 1 landfall out of Harvey early in its life...  Send Help Please (talk) 18:05, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * New cone for Gordon now shows Gordon becoming a hurricane just before landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi border, thus giving out a Hurricane Warning for that region.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:54, September 03, 2018 (UTC)

Still 60 mph/1003 mbars as of the latest advisory, and threatening the Gulf Coast around Mississippi as a potential hurricane. I hope they make it through okay! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:52, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Gordon has only a day or so to become a hurricane before landfall, Harvey had about two and a half from when he was rapidly organizing to approaching Texas, also Gordon's not nearly as well-organized as Harvey was right now. Category 2 might be pushing it a bit, but Gordon could very well become a 1. Ryan1000 05:04, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Now I am starting to think we will not see a hurricane from this one. It is moving fast at 17 mph, but its winds are already at 65 mph. Gordon has only a few hours to become a hurricane operationally. The Gulf Coast still needs to prepare though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:42, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still 65 mph as of the latest advisory, but NHC still expects Gordon to become a hurricane before hitting Louisiana and Mississippi. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:45, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon may be following Fay 2008 after all, in terms of intensity. Winds have increased to 70 mph now, but it is getting closer to land. Sadly, at least one death has already been attributed to Gordon (in Miami). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:43, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'll be very honest: at this point, I hope Gordon manages to close the gap between its current intensity and hurricane status. The impacts of a 60-kt TS and a 65-kt hurricane are scarcely different. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:30, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon now up to 70/1000 however, I doubt it will have time to become a hurricane.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:32, September 04, 2018 (UTC)

Gordon is making landfall as we speak. I haven’t been on much, because I’m getting personally affected. A tornado warning was just issued not that far from me about 25 minutes ago, and it’s been raining pretty hard. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:07, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SE behind Florence
Another wave behind Florence, currently at 0/20. The Atlantic may have awaken. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:45, September 02, 2018 (UTC)
 * This wave may be of greater concern down the road, with the current forecast bringing it due west and farther south than Florence. Assuming PTC 7 becomes Gordon, this storm (Helene-to-be) may be a threat to the Caribbean or U.S. east coast in the long run. Ryan1000 21:31, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic is waking up it seems. About time! This AOI I'm concerned about. If it heads on a more southern trajectory, we could be dealing with an east coast or even Lesser Antilles threat in the very long term (unless it recurves like a classic non-threatening Cape-Verde type hurricane). I've always had an eerie feeling about the name "Helene" this season, and in the betting pools I forecasted a record-powerful system. This could be one to really watch out for. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:16, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also have an eerie feeling of the name "Helene" since January. Models, including GFS and Euro, shows a hurricane (not sure if its Florence or this AOI) coming near the US East Coast). Anyways, this is up to 0/30.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     16:04, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well at 2 pm advisory, this wave at 10/40 now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:54, September 03, 2018 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
And now we have Invest 92L. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:19, September 03, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/50.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * Here comes a potentially formidable Helene... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:44, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Helene may become a formidable one this year after all. Still 10/50, but with plenty of ocean ahead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:44, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/70! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:53, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Helene is definitely coming from this one. The track reminds me of Irma and Maria from last year though. This isn't looking good for the ravaged Caribbean islands. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:36, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * This might actually follow near the footsteps of Flo down the road and turn northeastward out to sea. Earlier it was forecast to be a Caribbean threat, but both of the global models now take this somewhat north of the lessers, which would be good news for them after what they saw last year. Ryan1000 15:50, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hopefully those global models right now are correct. Helene is one of my favorite names in this list (aside from Florence, Rafael & Valerie), and I would not want it yet to become a retirement candidate. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:58, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it's 30/80. Please be a fishspinner... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:26, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 40/90. Here comes Helene!  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 04, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging off the coast of Africa
Another AOI forecast to emerge out of Africa in a few days, currently at 0/20. The Atlantic is really waking up. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 04, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
I added this section, as we are already well into the season despite the fact that only 3 storms have formed so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's Atlantic retirement forecast

 * Alberto - 5% - Caused disruption, but nothing significant really.
 * Beryl - 5% - A spectacle, regenerated a la Harvey, scared Maria-battered Puerto Rico, yet only inflicted minimal damage.
 * Chris - 2% - 2% for being a Category 2 in the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic, but other than that... nothing notable.
 * Debby - 0. 1% - Yeah, I gave that .1 for forming in cool waters. But no, Debby will definitely return in 2024.
 * Ernesto - 1% - Debby 2.0. I only gave that one percent due to the fact that Ernesto was a bit stronger than Debby.
 * Florence - TBD - Forecast to become a fishspinner, but I still have to wait and see.

That's all for now.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:09, September 2, 2018 (UTC).

joestar's retirement home
yare yare daze (talk) 17:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * alby (5%) : "lolololol florida i'm gonna destroy you like irma" -was a subtropical storm-
 * bez (2%) : "weeeeeee i'm a baby hurricane i am gonna weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"
 * chris (0%) : "look at me i can pull stunts like the chris-tal ball in 2014 and i can be better than him haha"
 * debby (-420%) : hell naw
 * anesuto (clannad%) : i didn't feel anything from this f-cker as he went past the uk LOL!

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - Just >$125 million in damage and 12 deaths should not convince the U.S. to give Alberto the boot. This is nothing compared to very bad storms America experienced in the past, such as Harvey or Katrina. Usually, retirements in the U.S. have a damage bill of at least $1 billion.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Some credit given for its pre-season formation. However, the fact that it remained subtropical for almost its whole life (through peak intensity and landfall) prevents the grade from being higher than this.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Beryl :
 * Retirement: 3% - The relatively light impacts it caused were in-between lives as a remnant low. The regions it impacted have seen much worse last year. Even the hardest-hit regions (like the Dominican Republic) have seen much worse in the past.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - The grade is boosted for its rapid intensification in the MDR so early in the year, and for being the first "Hurricane Beryl" ever. As a bonus, it briefly regenerated east of the East Coast. However, its small size meant it had potential to get even stronger in the MDR.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris :
 * Retirement: 1% - It did cause a death due to rough seas and impacted Canada as an extratropical system. That isn't enough to even think about retirement though.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - Did a nice job at the C2 part.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby :
 * Retirement: 0% - Completely out to sea.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Stole a name off the list, but I have to say it performed better than I expected (by reaching 50 mph).


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto :
 * Retirement: 0% - I believe the only impacts it ever caused were in the UK and Ireland as a post-tropical system. It was a complete fishspinner while tropical. That certainly won't ever earn it retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Although it was weaker than Debby, it stayed tropical unusually far north.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Florence :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:20, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 04:40, September 2, 2018 (UTC))

TG's Retirement Predictions
Welcome to my fourth annual retirement prediction, the first year that I have dropped the colors since 2015. This year I will just make it simple and easy, without it taking 5 minutes to get the right color for each storm.


 * Alberto - 10%: 10% might be a little too high, but Alberto is definitely not worthy of retirement.
 * Beryl - 0%: I seriously think this storm is overrated, to be honest. It didn't do much, and it was a classic weak MDR cyclone that occasionally happen on the edge of the MDR.
 * Chris - 1%: Chris killed one person, unfortunately, but it won't be enough for a retirement. Classic subtropics hurricane. T  G  2 0 1 8 17:00, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Adding mine too. Color scheme is up for the second straight year.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Alberto – grade  A , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Early surprise to maintain a 4-year streak of preseason storms. Bonus points for transitioning to a tropical cyclone inland and surviving as far north as Michigan. Retirement is unlikely, however.
 * Beryl – grade  A , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Cute little midget MDR hurricane. Even managed to hang on and have a second stint as a subtropical storm. Simply amazing.
 * Chris – grade  C , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Decent fish, unfortunately one death.
 * Debby – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . "Debby" shouldn't have gone to this name thief.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 10:07, August 10, 2018 (UTC).

Roy's Retirement Prediction
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto ( 17% ) - A pre-season storm that continued the streak of years with pre-season storms, and transitioned to a tropical cyclone over Tennessee and made it as far as Michigan. It did some millions of damage and a couple of deaths, but the US won't retire this name
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Beryl ( 0.001% ) - A small hurricane in the MDR that became the first ever Hurricane Beryl. This won't be retired, but a little bit greater than 0% due to its effect on land while post-tropical
 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris ( 1% ) - A C2 that didn't really affect land other than claiming one live, but even that won't retire Chris
 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby ( 0% ) - Weak storm that stayed out to sea
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto ( 0% ) - Same as Debby, but did stay tropical really far north
 * <font color="#00faf4">Florence (???) - Currently active
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gordon (???) - Currently active

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:49, August 08, 2018 (UTC) Last updated on 19:20, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Lee’s retirements
We’ve had only 4 systems, but it is August, so I might as well start this.
 * Alberto- 10%: Caused 12 deaths, and some impacts, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
 * Beryl- 2%: First ever Hurricane Beryl, and it came in the form of a cute little mini-hurricane. Did cause flash flooding in Puerto Rico and other areas recovering from Irma and Maria from last year, but thankfully wasn’t too bad and caused no fatalities.
 * Chris- 3%: Did cause some impacts in Newfoundland, and unfortunately one death. Not enough for retirement though.
 * Debby- 0%: Nope.

Leeboy100 Hello!! 03:54, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Grade colors:  S ,  A+ ,  A ,  A- ,  B ,  C ,  D ,  E ,  F ,  Failippe 


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto : Grade:  C  - Retirement: 10% - Neat little pre-season surprise that went tropical inland for some reason. Gets 10% for around $125 million in damage and 12 total deaths.
 * <font color="#fffcc">Beryl : Grade:  A  - Retirement: 1% - We finally got a Hurricane Beryl, in the form of an adorable little mini-cane that (mostly) spared the areas that had been mauled last season. Bonus points for surprise regen though it was short lived.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris : Grade:  B  - Retirement: 2% - Gert 2.0
 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby : Grade:  F  - Retirement: lol no % - Nothing too notable about this one, although it did manage to get to 50 mph.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto : Grade:  E  - Retirement: 0% - Basically Debby 2.0, but gains points for resilience.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Florence : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gordon : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active and heading towards land.

Will be added on to as needed. Send Help Please (talk) 08:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

IbAHAn1829tree's Name Retirement Chances
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:01, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm Alberto - 0.5% : Became tropical over land, caused some damage and, sadly, deaths.
 * Category 1 Beryl - 0% : First HURRICANE Beryl ever, did nothing.
 * Category 2 Chris - 0.01 % : Did nothing but take the life of 1, sadly.
 * Tropical Storm Debby - 0% : A fail, but at least it became a named storm.
 * Tropical Storm Ernesto - 0% : Another fail, the Atlantic storms this year seem to like the water up north for some reason.
 * Hurricane Florence - 0% : This storm could affect the US East Coast as a hurricane.
 * Tropical Storm Gordon - Greater than 0% : Now making landfall on the Gulf Coast.
 * Possible TS/H Helene - 0% : Another Cape-Verde hurricane.

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions
I'm here, but like I said in 2014...I'm at a loss for predicting retirements so far. Nothing is really worth retiring, and if we don't get anything notable within the next month or so, 2018 could very well be the first year since 2014 to have no retired names in the Atlantic. But, what else could you expect from the naming list with the fewest retired names from it since 1979? For now though, I'll say this: Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 10% - Made 2018 the fourth consecutive AHS to start early, and was the second consecutive incarnation of Alberto to do so as well. But with 125 million in damage and 12 deaths, I have to give him some credit for impact.
 * Beryl - 1% - Managed to defy expectations and become a tiny hurricane in the open Atlantic and come back later on as a subtropical storm, but Bery's effects on land were minimal at most.
 * Chris - 1% - Killed a person from rip currents and caused some minor damage in Newfoundland. Nothing too much.
 * Debby - 0% - Fail.
 * Ernesto - 0% - Debby 2.0.
 * Florence - ?? - Still active and expected to turn north and eventually out to sea, but things could change for Bermuda.
 * Gordon - ?? - Still active, but forecast to be a minimal hurricane hitting Mississippi.