Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.  ~ Roy25     Happy Thanksgiving Day!!!  |  🦃     23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. -  PORY GONAL  13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  04:06, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019
Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
I don't see this anywhere on the NHC's TWO, even on the 5-day outlook, but Tropical Tidbits says there's another invest in the central Atlantic between the Antilles and Africa, and it's expected to become a hurricane as it nears the upper Antilles by the initial model forecasts...this might become Erin if 98L gets to Dorian. Ryan1000 11:44, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * It looks like the Atlantic is finally waking up... TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 11:58, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO. 10/20 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:40, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

The initial intensity guidance for this AOI still takes it to category 2-3 intensity in 5 days...but the initial GFS runs are much more conservative on intensity, making it only a weak tropical storm as it moves past the upper Antilles, PR, and the DR. Hopefully the latter ends up being more accurate. Ryan1000 15:32, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 40/50. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:21, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60/70, we could see Erin by next week.  Sandy 156   :)  23:48, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Ok this thing exploded out of nowhere. After thinking this month would end with barely anything forming before Chantal came, we could now be up to Erin in the next couple days! I hope it's not a major long-term threat. Models on Tropical Tidbits take this into the Lesser and Greater Antilles and then it could threaten the U.S. Stay tuned... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:00, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Well, this escalated quickly. Beatissima (talk) 00:01, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five
Now a tropical depression by the NHC and is expected to be an 85 mph hurricane in five days. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 15:19, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * This system does not look good in the long run. Its forecast track for the first advisories seem oddly similar to Maria '17. Although I don't think it'll get nearly as strong as Maria did in the eastern Caribbean, this still very much bears watching. I just have a feeling inside me that this (future-Dorian) might be something significant in the future. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:04, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dorian
And here’s Dorian! Leeboy100 Hello! 21:07, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) 35 kts/1008 mbar and the NHC notes that the organization of the inner core has significantly improved... I have a sneaking suspicion that this might RI, but I hope I'm wrong. At least Dorian getting retired would pave the way for Dylan to take its place, I guess? :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:09, August 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah, looking at the forecast track, I’m starting to get a bad feeling about Dorian as well. The NHC already forecasts Dorian to hit the Caribbean islands as a hurricane. Dorian, please behave. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * This has been organizing pretty quickly and I have a bad feeling as well. Is it gonna RI? Hopefully not but it's not out of the question. If it pulls off RI, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola could be in serious danger. Too soon to know if it'll be significant when it approaches the U.S. mainland, but this is looking scary in the long run. Stay tuned. Lol Dylan, it would be funny if Dylan took the place of this storm if it's retired. I wish that someday a male "S" name is retired and replaced by Steve or Steven. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:45, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

The NHC said in their latest forecast discussion that Dorian does have some mid-level dry air to contend with as it moves west-northwest towards the Caribbean, which may limit the area of strongest convection near the center of the storm, but wind shear has significantly declined and SST's are ripe...if Dorian can pull something akin to Danny '15 and briefly RI to a major hurricane before hitting the lessers, it might become a severe storm for parts of the Caribbean...hopefully that dry air keeps the tiny MDR storm in check for the time being. Also, if it doesn't become too strong before hitting the DR, it might die over the island, which would elliminate any long-term severe impacts this might have to the U.S. That'd be a best-case scenario. Ryan1000 01:41, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * I hope Dorian wouldn't impact Hispanola as much as I thought. I also don't want Dorian to RI or a major right before it's landfall in the island (unless it somehow misses it). Forecast to become 80 mph hurricane for Dorian before its landfall by the NHC.  Sandy 156   :)  03:31, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are put up for Barbados, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Now forecast to peak at 75 mph by the NHC.  Sandy 156   :)  17:11, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * The Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola are expected to be impacted as a strong tropical storm and possibly as a hurricane. Hopefully it's not too bad. The best-case scenario would be for this to die out over Hispaniola, which would limit or even completely remove any threat to the mainland U.S. Unless a sudden RI episode occurs I don't expect anything more than a strong TS/minimal hurricane before it strikes Hispaniola. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:31, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensified to 50 mph. Yeah, a hurricane seems likely to be honest. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, August 26, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now up to 60 mph/1002 mbar.  Sandy 156   :)  14:32, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian's still forecast to be a minimal hurricane when it reaches the DR, but NHC says it'll probably only be a depression after it crosses the island, if Dorian survives at all. Long-range model forecasts eventually take it to eastern Florida but Dorian probably won't be more than a TS by that point, if that. Ryan1000 14:57, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, I might've spoken too soon, the track for Dorian has been shifting farther east recently and now he's only expected to clip at the eastern tip of the DR, or Dorian could even pass between the DR and Puerto Rico, which would minimize interaction with the mountains, and with the Bermuda high expected to build later in the forecast period, Dorian could become more threatening to the U.S. down the road than previously anticipated...behave yourself, Dorian... Ryan1000 22:10, August 26, 2019 (UTC)


 * 8 PM advisory is out, and keeps the winds the same, but actually raises the pressure to 1007. Leeboy100 Hello! 00:00, August 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * 11 pm advisory lowers the pressure and wind speed to 50/1003.  Sandy 156   :)  02:46, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

11 am, you mean. Anyhow, Dorian is only expected to be a TS after crossing near or through the passage between the eastern tip of the DR and western PR, as there is still quite a bit of dry air keeping Dorian in check, but even the NHC says they're puzzled as to why the dynaminc models like the HWRF and the global (GFS and Euro) models don't make Dorian stronger after passing north of the Antilles over expected 29 C waters and a moist environment...maybe the southern outflow from TD Six could bring some shear over the storm over the next day or two? Regardless, forecaster Stewart said that there is higher than usual uncertainty in days 4 and 5 regarding the intensity forecast for Dorian, so eastern Florida and north of there may have to watch out for him down the road. Ryan1000 17:49, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually it was 11 pm, Sandy posted at 02:46 UTC which was last night. At this point, the dry air will likely prevent it from reaching hurricane status before it strikes Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. However, I'm getting more and more concerned about Florida. Assuming it survives the Greater Antilles intact and still well-organized, conditions look favorable enough for potential strengthening to a hurricane. I don't think TD 6/potential-Erin will affect it much because it'll be shooting north into Atlantic Canada while Dorian is just entering the Bahamas. In summary, this is looking like a greater threat to the mainland U.S. as time goes on. Stay tuned. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:34, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Ah, my bad, either way, the intensity didn't notably change over that time. Dorian still might become something of a threat to eastern Florida down the road though. The intensity forecast has Dorian hitting near Cape Canaveral as a strong TS, and the forecast track now has Dorian moving far enough north of west to completely miss the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, which would put it into interaction with Puerto Rico more, but PR isn't as mountainous as the DR, so Dorian might not be interrupted as much by interaction with PR as he would over the DR. Ryan1000 21:49, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Holds on as a 50 mph storm. Now forecast to be a minimal hurricane when approaching Florida and the track continues to shift northward with a crossing of Puerto Rico now expected. In fact I probably wouldn't rule out RI before Florida landfall - the forecast just keeps on getting more ominous. It would've been good if it crossed the mountains of Hispaniola instead so it would be more likely to die out. But no, it has to shift towards a less tough crossing and become a threat to the U.S. mainland. I might even go so far as to say this might end up being the year's first retirement candidate (Barry barely has a chance IMO). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:09, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

New advisory, things stay the same, but the cone now has this hitting Florida as an 80 mph hurricane. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:09, August 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * I can hope for the best that the damage and deaths that Dorian will cause in the near future won't be that high.  Sandy 156   :)  03:49, August 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Winds back to 60 mph, pressure at 1003 mb. Now forecast to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico -- Dorian might only cross the eastern portion of the latter (its track has been changing recently). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:13, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * What a change that one night makes. Dorian is not looking good for Florida, and I was taking a look at the models as well and most now give him a westerly component when crossing the state. The Euro now gives it a SW turn toward Tampa, and that is quite alarming. The storm surge associated with that type of path would be enormous. We could be looking at a major hurricane striking the East Coast of Florida and cutting across into the GOM to intensify further. Forecast currently calls for Cat 2 without any further predicted RI, but that may change very quickly. Owen 12:02, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian's current track and trajectory looks like a combination of Hugo and Frances, although it is significantly weaker than the two. (But Frances was a Category 2 when it hit Florida, the same intensity that Dorian is forecast to reach once it nears Florida.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:08, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

(Edit Conflict) Woah, the Bermuda high has been much, much weaker than we all thought it would be at this point, even the NHC didn't expect Dorian to end up this far north this early. Now Dorian has moved so far north of west that he is not only expected to miss the DR but even miss Puerto Rico to the east and only pass over the tiny Virgin Islands, which would only minimally disrupt the circulation of Dorian, if he's even disrupted at all. Because of the lack of notable land interaction interrupting the small storm, Dorian is now expected to hit at least 100 mph before making a landfall on the eastern coast of Florida. Last night's run of the HWRF model expected Dorian to become a 941 mbar category 4 hurricane taking direct aim at Savannah, Georgia, or it could go further south and even hit Jacksonville, Florida, at that intensity. The only other hurricane to hit Jacksonville since reliable record-keeping was 1964's Hurricane Dora, and the last major hurricane to hit Savannah directly was the great Sea Islands hurricane of 1893, which was also one of America's deadliest hurricanes (up to 2000 people killed). Either way, Dorian is a much more notable threat to Florida now and this could well be our first retirement candidate, a complete turnaround from his flop in 2013. Owen, I doubt Dorian will end up as far south as Tampa given his position and track now, but a strong hurricane hitting Jacksonville or Savannah, let alone NASA at Cape Canaveral, would still be very destructive. Ryan1000 13:22, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nearly a hurricane - 60 kts/999 mbar. Hurricane Warning issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the Virgin Islands. Now forecast to become a 100-kt major hurricane by day 4... but then weaken to an 85-kt Category 2 by day 5? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

I think the 85 kt on day 5 thing was a mistake, because now day 5 is at 100 kts as well. Major hurricane landfall on Florida looking a bit more likely now. Nickcoro (talk) 15:39, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * If worse comes to worst, then Dorian could make 2019 the third season in a row to feature a major hurricane landfall in Florida, following 2017 with Irma and 2018 with Michael. And this was after 12 years had passed since Wilma, which was until Irma the most recent MH to strike Florida... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:44, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Dorian
Uh oh, this has become a HURRICANE! Now causing impacts in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Getting increasingly ominous for Florida and Southeast U.S. by the minute... If it deviates north to a major Georgia landfall, it would be unusual and the first since the 1898 Georgia hurricane. Either way, the first retirement candidate of the year is on the horizon. It's quite weird and scary that Florida went 12 years without a major landfall, and now this could be the 3rd year in a row! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:44, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * I don’t like this at all. I hope after this year, the US has another long major hurricane drought. We’ve had enough of destructive storms hitting the US. Leeboy100 Hello! 17:59, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oh no, I wasn’t expecting hurricane status for the storm to be so early which indicates that this will be a strong one, but I am worried about the damage that Dorian will cause once it makes landfall in Florida. Hope we won’t see another devastating hurricane after the past 2 or 3 years.  Sandy 156   :)  23:07, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 990 mbar but wind speeds remain the same. I'm not ruling out a C4 hurricane for Dorian before landfall, I mean it's entirely possible.  Sandy 156   :)  00:03, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 85 mph/986 mbar. It's just getting worse by the minute. Hopefully Floridians are preparing for this thing, which is doomed to strike them as a major. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:20, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

This year's naming list is just ridiculously cursed, there has never been one single hurricane season using list 5 since 1979 that did not have at least 1 retired name, and list 5 holds the record for most retired names from it, with 13. 1983 had Alicia, 1989 had Hugo, 1995 had Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne, 2001 had Allison, Iris, and Michelle, 2007 had Dean, Felix, and Noel, 2013 had Ingrid, and given the way things are going right now, Dorian's likelihood to return in 2025 is slim...if this pans out, Dorian would give this naming list a whopping 14 retired names, and maybe more if we get something else notable later in the season. Also, the most recent run of the HWRF model and some other recent runs make Dorian a colossal category 4 storm slamming Cape Canaveral, which would be insanely destructive, not only on the coastline but inland, since a strong category 4 major hurricane has never made landfall directly there since record-keeping began. Matthew came close 3 years ago, and Frances plus the 1926 Nassau, Bahamas Hurricane weakened beforehand, but a storm like the one in that image would be historic...in more ways than one. Ryan1000 03:34, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately an indirect death was caused already. A man fell off the roof of his house while preparing for the storm.  Sandy 156   :)  04:52, August 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * New advisory coming shortly, Dorian is starting to get his act back together after going through some dry air. Edit: Never mind. No advisory coming shortly. Next one is at 5:00 AM since there aren’t any watches or warnings at the moment. Leeboy100 Hello! 05:56, August 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Winds still at 85 mph, but pressure rose to 991 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:11, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Models seem to have trended further south a bit before Dorian's Florida landfall, the latest Euro and 06Z HWRF bring Dorian as far south as a landfall just north of Miami...that would be unimaginable, considering how huge Dorian may get after he undergoes some ERC's on his way to Florida. Ryan1000 11:27, August 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Oh crap, I don't want this to be a re-Andrew '92. I want Dorian to move EAST and NOT WEST, but it looks like that's not gonna happen. Plus, I think 991 mb seems rather high for an 85 mph hurricane. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:46, August 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah, just looking at the track, it has been looking like a re-Andrew for a day or so now: the way that Dorian is expected to raze across Florida, how compact the storm is now, and how potent it is expected to become. ChowKam2002 (talk) 11:59, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian definitely organizing, very good presentation on visible satellite. Looking like a more classic cinnamon roll. --Whiplash (talk) 13:10, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Still 85 mph, pressure down to 986 mb. Forecast to make landfall as a Category 4 (130 mph). This is increasingly getting scarier by the minute. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:00, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * I'm worried about this storm. Does anyone know when the last time something this strong hit east florida was? I can't think of anything off the top of my head but I haven't been seriously tracking hurricanes for too long and I also might be forgetting something. YellowSkarmory (talk) 15:48, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Unfortunately, it looks like the HWRF was right, Dorian is now forecast to become a category 4 storm when it makes landfall on eastern Florida. @YellowSkarmory: Andrew of 1992 was a category 5 storm when it made landfall just south of Miami, which is technically still eastern Florida, but a category 4 hasn't made landfall at Cape Canaveral since records began. West Palm Beach or other areas just south of CC? I suppose the 1928 hurricane was also a 4 when it hit there, but that was 91 years ago. Ryan1000 16:10, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * If it directly strikes or the strongest eyewall lashes Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center, this could be one of the if not THE costliest blow ever to NASA's space program. Who knows what a Category 4 could do to the space station... Hopefully it's well built enough to withstand a powerful hurricane. This could get really catastrophic for Florida, likely on the scale of Irma or the 2004 hurricanes (maybe even Andrew). God forbid if this thing RIs and ends up as a Category 5 before landfall! Conditions seem potentially favorable enough. If anyone here on this wiki lives on the Florida Peninsula, you better be starting to board up your windows, pack up your belongings, seek shelter, buy emergency supplies including food and water, and evacuate. And PRAY TO GOD. This is going to get real bad... If this deviates a bit south to a direct Miami strike AND RIs to a C5, we could be talking about one of the costliest storms in history. In summary, y'all in Florida better prepare now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:17, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Man this storm is scary even right now, Dorian could be a major threat to Florida. I hope that it won’t be a costly and devastating hurricane to Florida. Prayers up for those people in Florida. Anyway, looks like Dorian is clearing out an eye right now.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 02:06, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian is now a Cat 2. Beatissima (talk) 03:03, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yep. 105 mph, 977 mbars, and now forecast to hit Florida at 140 mph rather than 130. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:09, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian Gray, stop being naughty. Did Florida piss in your Cheerios or something?! You may deal a blow to Florida, but they will come out stronger than ever. Your attempt to destroy Florida and the lives of its poor citizens shall fail. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:10, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Still 105 mph, pressure slightly up to 979 mb, but Dorian is now forecast to intensify into this season's first major hurricane. 5PM update from NHC also notes that a hurricane watch has been issued for northwestern Bahamas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:56, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nearly a major now - 95 kts/972 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:20, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * It is now a 110 mph, 972 mbar hurricane. Expected to peak at 140 mph before making landfall at a slightly weaker 130 mph. Bad news. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:21, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

I know I am being shallow. But this storm is super ugly, like really messy visual presentation right now. Lol. --Whiplash (talk) 13:41, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * I can see an eye popping out right now.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 14:30, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Models are becoming increasingly consistent on Dorian raking up the east coast of Florida after landfall, so even if Dorian makes landfall near West Palm Beach or Jupiter just south of Cape Canaveral, Dorian's turn north means CC could still get hit hard by Dorians winds and storm surge, not to mention the damage inland in places like Orlando and potentially Jacksonville (though Tampa will probably get off easier if Dorian turns north after landfall, so Owen should be alright). EDIT: Also, side note, if Dorian makes landfall in the sunshine state as a category 4 hurricane, it would mark only the second time on record in which a category 4 hurricane struck the U.S, let alone Florida, for 3 consecutive hurricane seasons, as we had Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017 (just Irma in Florida though) and of course, Michael last year. The late 1940's also had a 3-year streak (well, 4, if you count 1950's King). However, it would not be a record number of consecutive years for U.S. major hurricane landfalls, as 1915-1919 had a five-year streak of that. Both 2020 and 2021 would have to have a MH U.S. landfall to tie that record, hopefully that doesn't end up happening in the future though. These past few seasons have been destructive enough. Ryan1000 14:31, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Dorian
And now it’s a major. 115,970. This isn’t good. Leeboy100 Hello! 17:57, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yikes. Both The Bahamas and Florida will get hit hard by this. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:59, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for parts of the Bahamas but no Hurricane Watch for Florida, probably will be put up late today or tomorrow or so. This will be bad for Florida; I hope those people are starting to prepare and evacuate.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 23:09, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Most recent recon pass now has pressure at 946mb which isn't surprising since it really had improved its presentation. It is still an extremely impressive drop of 25 though since last pass with winds probably at Category 4 now. Probably will be upgrade at next advisory. If this rate of intensification were to continue we most certainly could be looking at a Category 5. I doubt it would be able to maintain that intensity consistently at the speed it is moving as it would probably churn up enough cold water to burn it down to a 4 again. Also it can't be ruled that Dorian could go out to sea as well or be a re-Matthew/Floyd situation. --Whiplash (talk) 23:15, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently, recon found a pressure of 946 which is a sharp drop compared to the 970 mbar pressure as of the most recent advisory. This is clearly RI. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 23:13, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Dorian is looking pretty scary on satellite. It may be a high-end C3 / low-end C4 already. This situation keeps getting worse and worse.TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:32, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * And there’s the new advisory. 125/950. A 20 millibar drop in 3 hours...... Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 23:48, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Special statement from NHC, Dorian is now a C4, 130/950.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 00:34, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oh, boy. An eventual Cat 5 is looking more and more likely. Beatissima (talk) 01:04, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

More models are beginning to suggest Dorian may stay out to sea. I'm not convinced that this will hit the states we have many examples of hurricanes getting close to Florida and not hitting the state. This may be another case. --Whiplash (talk) 01:41, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Thank God if that comes true. However, it may turn out to be Matthew 2.0 for Florida if it goes nearer. Hoping the best but expecting the worst. Reminds me of Jose 2017 to be honest, but Bahamas still needs to watch out. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:38, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian is up to 140/948. Expected to be a 150 mph hurricane from the NHC before weakening.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 02:44, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hopefully those models come true and Dorian stays respectably offshore. I will let out a sigh of relief if it curves before hurricane-force winds are even supposed to arrive there. Florida does not need another devastating hurricane. If this does not recurve though... it'll just continue to get scarier and God forbid this becomes a C5 and doesn't recurve until after landfall. This is looking like possibly the worst Florida Peninsula hurricane since Andrew if the recurving scenario doesn't happen until landfall. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:49, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * But sadly, even if it does recurve, the northern Bahamas are still guaranteed to receive impacts. This could have devastating consequences for Freeport and other cities/towns there. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:22, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian's probably going to be a HUGE storm when he nears eastern Florida as it's inevitable that this rapidly strengthening hurricane is going to undergo an ERC or two on the way to expand its windfield, so even if Dorian doesn't make a landfall a close scrape with eastern Florida would still inflict very heavy damage, as Matthew showed in 2016. Cape Canaveral may get off a direct hit from this according to the forecast track right now but a possible direct hit on Savannah is now back in play, NHC now expects Dorian to rake up Florida's east coast, possibly without making landfall, before storming through Savannah as a strong category 3 hurricane, but given how this storm has overperformed intensity forecasts thus far, I'm going to take a wild guess and say that there's a chance that Dorian will make for the record 4th consecutive AHS with a category 5 hurricane, beating the previous 3-year streak of such storms from 2003-05. Obviously this isn't a good thing by any means...but the people must prepare for the worst, and Dorian may well bring the worst to parts of eastern Florida. Ryan1000 03:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Good, stay away from Florida, Dorian. Now stay away from the rest of the U.S. and we should be good. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:55, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

145 mph, 944 mbars in the latest advisory. Bahamas will get a beating from Dorian, but Florida might face heavy rainfall instead (especially when Dorian slows down). Forecast now takes Dorian as a hurricane (probably a C2) near the southern coast of South Carolina. Track looks like a combination of Hugo, Matthew and Andrew at this point, but it must be noted that at one point, Dorian really looked structurally similar to Hugo, albeit further from land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:10, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * SFMR now has a non-suspect sustained surface wind of 141 kts, or basically 160 mph, but I don't know if the NHC will follow SFMR at 11. T  G  2 0 1 9 13:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * If that SFMR data would be followed by NHC at 11, the 4-year Category 5 streak of the Atlantic would become official. God forbid it hits as a Category 5 in the islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco; the last time that the Bahamas had a beating was Andrew, and before that, 1979's David and the 1929 hurricane (which was a C4 at its peak). Dorian's track (and trajectory) is kinda similar to the latter system too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:01, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * If Dorian becomes a Category 5 before the end of the day, it will be the first August Category 5 since Dean. It’s a bit eerie and ironic that Dean’s replacement is this strong. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 14:55, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

150 mph, 945 mbars. Pressure went a little upward as the winds grew stronger, but that doesn't change anything for the northern part of The Bahamas: they're still going to bear the brunt of this monster. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:56, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yep you beat me to it. New advisory came out the moment after I posted. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 14:57, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah. Dorian may or may not reach C5 though. Anyway, Dorian has slowed down to 8 mph, and its center is no longer expected to touch any part of Florida's east coast. It is expected to recurve towards the open Atlantic, but perilously close to the Carolinas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Dorian still has a good shot at becoming a C5, but it's diminishing pretty quickly. Anyways, Grand Bahama is going to get slammed by Dorian, which is the second-most populated island in the Bahamas. Nassau is still nearly in the direct path too, which is worrying. About 275,000 people live there, if I remember correctly. T  G  2 0 1 9 15:49, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian is expected to slow down as it reaches the northern Bahamas, so it could deliver severe damage to the upper islands, like the category 5 hurricane that stalled near the upper Bahamas in 1932, but that hurricane turned out to sea before doing much of anything to the U.S. east coast. Still, a cat 5 in the Bahamas is nothing to sneeze at, and Dorian could be a retirement-worthy storm from that alone. If Dorian's track keeps recurving (now expected to hit North Carolina like Floyd), it might turn out to sea after the Bahamas. Ryan1000 15:58, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Good news : the cloud structure of Dorian is apparently decaying. The latest UW-CIMSS estimates are dropping off, and SAB subjetive estimates are also decreasing. The cloud tops are warming, as per IR imagery. Signs of weakening, anyone? -- Java Hurricane  16:18, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Is this the stroke of doom? 140 kt as per the latest vortex message from Hurricane Hunters. Apparently Dorian is strengthening even as the the cloud tops warm. Category 5 at 18Z? -- Java Hurricane  17:11, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Oh boy, I don't want to hear about a Category 5 this dangerously close to land. Who knows what such an intense storm will do to the northern Bahamas. Hopefully after the Bahamas, it completely recurves out to sea sparing even the Carolinas from significant impacts. But even if it does that, it could be retired for Bahamas impacts alone, similar to Joaquin. Regardless of whether it recurves enough, people in the Carolinas, Georgia, and the east coast of Florida should not let their guard down. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:04, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 21z now. Still 150mph. It probably won’t make it to C5 at this point but could still reach 155mph. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 21:19, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dropsonde recorded winds of 155 KNOTS at the surface! I think I smell a special advisory incoming. If that isn’t evidence of a C5, I don’t know what is. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 01:55, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Still 150 mph, pressure now at 940. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:53, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Smh that’s the worst decision the NHC had ever taken, keeping it at 150 mph instead of 155 or 160 mph.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 03:14, September 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Despite the overwhelming evidence from recon that this is a Category 5, NHC stubbornly leaves this at 150. It’s literally just Lane from last year all over again, and I will repeat what I said then. I don’t want a C5 to hit land, but if there is substantial evidence that it’s a 5, it’s a 5. The NHC’s habit of doing this lately is getting really annoying really fast. 🙄 Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 03:17, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

To be fair, Joaquin was first requested to be retired by the U.S, but only because it caught the El Faro ship off guard, sinking it and killing all 33 people aboard it as it unexpectedly moved southward and RI'd to a strong major hurricane, contrary to all initial forecasts on the storm, but Joaquin had a strong case to be retired by the Bahamas too, as it was the first category 4 hurricane to hit the islands during the month of October since the great Bahamas hurricane of 1866, which killed over 350 people in the islands. The only other hurricane to kill close to that many people in the Bahamas since then was the 1926 Nassau Hurricane, named after devastating the country's capital as a category 4 storm.

Anyways, from the looks of things now, Dorian may recurve out to sea later on before making a landfall on the eastern U.S, and even more fortunately it seems that the left-hand side of Dorian is much smaller than his right, similar to Hugo in 1989 as Anonymous 2.0 mentioned above (but Hugo actually did charge far inland and ruin much of coastal South Carolina in and around Charleston), but even so, the NHC forecasts Dorian to slow to a crawl as it roars over the upper Abaco Islands, which are home to over 17,000 people, likely as a high-end category 4 or 5 hurricane. If this pans out, those islands may suffer total devastation. Like I said above, the 1932 Bahamas Hurricane also stalled over the upper Abaco Islands as a category 5 hurricane, before it turned away without hitting the U.S, hopefully Dorian does that too. Ryan1000 04:48, September 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Winds remain at 150 mph (very odd) but pressure is now down to 934 millibars. Current forecast expects a peak of 155 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:16, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Dorian
Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph and a pressure of 927 millibars!! 4 consecutive years with at least one C5. Wow, just wow. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:02, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Per TheChosenWizard above. Bearing down on the Abaco islands as we speak... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:06, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Finally, but very very bad news for The Bahamas, especially the Abacos. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:13, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * People on the Abaco Islands had better have prepared for this monster of a storm. Stay safe out there! TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:15, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Four years. Matthew, Irma & Maria, Michael, Dorian. Wow. Btw, @ TheChosenWizard, I transferred your previous comment to this section. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:19, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

What is interesting is that the Air Force plane's fix at 1132Z had maximum winds of 156 kt, but the NHC is still being conservative, keeping it at 140 kt. -- Java Hurricane  12:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * And just to think that this storm is going to stall right over Nassau, Freeport, and Lucaya. 15-20 ft storm surge predicted for these areas. T  G  2 0 1 9 12:41, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * NHC has updated the storm strength to 175 mph. Continuing to intensify and may soon be sub-920. Track has also shifted slightly more west back towards Florida as the northeast ridge is slightly stronger than first assumed. Either way Florida will likely see very heavy rain, surge and at least sustained tropical storm winds if not hurricane ones as the situation evolves. Carolina's also need to be watching this system. --Whiplash (talk) 13:38, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Even more troubling is the fact that there was a (suspect) 159 kt recording on SFMR. Also, please check the latest sonding at your own risk here. -- Java Hurricane  13:56, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) I have to say, I'm rather impressed that Dorian hasn't undergone any EWRCs yet, probably because it has one of the best-formed eyes I've ever seen in the Atlantic - right up there with Irma. (@Anonymous, don't forget about Michael!) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:02, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well... 155 kt per latest fix. -- Java Hurricane  14:04, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Not sure if I'm just seeing things but rather than a just direct orientation satellite looks like there may be a bit of southwest movement going on with the system in the last few frames? --Whiplash (talk) 14:07, September 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Also per Tropical Tidbits just had a dropsonde record a surface level wind of 176kts or 202mph. Probably a gust but you get the idea... --Whiplash (talk) 14:13, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * AL, 05, 2019090112, 03, OFCL, 3, 265N, 768W, 155, 919, HU, 155kts

Owen 14:22, September 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * 922 mb, 175 mph. God forbid this monster becomes stronger. My thoughts are with The Bahamas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:40, September 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Whoa it got that strong? I can't believe I would wake up to a C5, let alone 175 mph and possibly even stronger. My thoughts and prayers go out to the Bahamas. They will take a HUGE beating from this monster. And it's still worrisome for the southeast despite it curving offshore, as they will receive plenty of impacts too. A retirement for sure now... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:56, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Most recent observation : 913 mbar and 161.2 kt. -- Java Hurricane  14:56, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

'''180 mph, 913 mbars. '''Oh. My. God. This is now more intense than Irma and Michael. This is a BEAST. This is now stronger than the 1932 Bahamas hurricane, which was 160 mph/921 mbars. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:58, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * This could be the most catastrophic in our lifetimes for the Bahamas or even in all of recorded history. Those northern Bahamas islands would be absolutely wiped out with a storm like this. This is getting record powerful. I have no words anymore... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:05, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Please check this out at your own risk. This is catastrophic. This is worse than Mordor. -- Java Hurricane  15:10, September 1, 2019 (UTC) (Quote from The Lord of the Rings, J. R. R. Tolkien)
 * I don't speak Spanish but dios mio. That's... 189.5 mph, nearly 190 mph... only Camille and Allen had those winds in the Atlantic... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, September 1, 2019 (UTC) EDIT: Allen only. Camille was actually 175 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:03, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest fix : 176 kt, 915 mbar. This is hell. If this reading is correct, then Dorian will do to the Bahamas what Patricia almost did to Mexico - cataclysmic damage. -- Java Hurricane  15:42, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Keep in mind that Patricia actually weakened to a [strong] Category 4 before its Mexico landfall. When this beast hits Grand Abaco I personally think the situation would be worse. Not to mention that it is a flat island, compared to a coast that is part of a huge landmass. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:57, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Latest observation : 907.8 mbar, 167.9 kt. -- Java Hurricane  16:32, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * This thing doesn't even need to make a US landfall; the name Dorian is GONE after this season for what it's doing to the Bahamas alone. It will be a Category 5 monster for the entire 24+ hours that it slogs across the Bahamas, according to the NHC. Send Help Please  (talk) 16:36, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Guaranteed retirement here. Anyone else sees this becoming another wilma? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:37, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Fun fact: my mom used to work with someone whose son's name is Dorian, and she texted her this morning and said something along the lines of "hi, apparently your son's namesake hurricane is about to eat the Bahamas." This is just surreal. Thrilling and yet horrifying at the same time. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:44, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall on Elbow Cay
Update from the NHC - landfall at 911 mbar, 160 kt. The Bahamas likely to be obliterated by this hellish storm. -- Java Hurricane  16:47, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Update statement from the NHC, Dorian is now 185/911. Holy crap, I’m shook rn to wake up to Dorian being stronger than Irma.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 16:50, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I have no words. I can’t believe this is even happening. The Bahamas are going to get ravaged by Dorian. I cannot believe how this just ramped up in intensity and has become onevof the strongest storms in Atlantic history. I feel so bad for those in the Bahamas right now. This is a terrifying storm. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 17:10, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * 6th most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricane (911 mbars) but tied as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record (in terms of winds). Yes, it has tied the 1935 Labor Day hurricane's record of 185 mph. This is historic. And devastating. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * This exploded. Big-time. I'm worried significantly for The Bahamas, and this will probably cause significant effects for the east coast of the US too. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:31, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Just so we're clear: 24 hours ago, Dorian was at 130 kts/945 mbar. Now it is at 160 kts/911 mbar. It underwent rapid intensification with 130 kts as the starting point. That is obscene. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:02, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dude, this is going to be absolutely CATASTROPHIC for the Abacos Islands and Grand Bahama. At this kind of fury, there are cities and towns such as Freeport, Marsh Harbour, and Treasure Cay that could be wiped off the face of the earth. Absolutely historic! I feel really bad for the victims there. I can remember how Irma absolutely devastated Barbuda and caused the island to go completely abandoned... The same thing can possibly happen to the Abacos Islands after this hurricane. The eye is over Marsh Harbour as we speak. Get ready for certain retirement as the cataclysm unfolds over the northern Bahamas. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:05, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oh my, look at that damage that Dorian has caused already. The Northern Bahamas is getting absolute hammered by the 185 mph hurricane.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 18:22, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, that's plenty of damage it already caused. And it's only going to get worse as the area sees the other side of the eyewall. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:00, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Rip in pieces :( PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:06, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory is out: Dorian’s pressure dropped by a millibar to 910 mbar.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 19:07, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Just two more until it ties Maria as the 10th most intense Atlantic hurricane on record... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:51, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Warnings are now put into effect for parts of Eastern Florida.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 21:03, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dude, this thing doesn't know when to stop. I don't think she's gonna make the turn north. Dorian is gonna smack Florida, just my gut feeling. Am not feeling good about this storm. PeterPiper567 (talk) 21:22, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Got off of work recently, and I'm not surprised we got a lot more activity since Dorian officially made for a record 4th consecutive Atlantic year with a category 5, but I never expected Dorian to hit 185 mph, that's just downright insane. Pending reanalysis, this makes Dorian the strongest hurricane ever recorded over the open tropical Atlantic Ocean as Irma was downgraded to 180 after reanalysis in 2018. Unfortunately, Dorian is hitting land at this intensity, and with his stalling motion now near the Abacos...it wouldn't surprise me if large parts of the islands suffer the same fate that east island in the French Frigate Shoals did after Walaka passed over them in October of last year. Which is, to be completely washed away by a colossal storm surge. It has also surpassed the Bahamas hurricane of 1932 as the worst hurricane to hit the Abaco Islands on record, and is only the 4th category 5 hurricane to hit the islands, after that aforementioned storm, another cat 5 in 1933, and Andrew. Hopefully Dorian turns from Florida before hitting them, the Abacos are getting clobbered hard enough as we speak. Ryan1000 21:59, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pressure up to 915 mbar as it might be beginning to enter an EWRC. I guess it's starting to weaken. Yay? This scary monster is moving so slowly but getting closer and closer to Florida. The center might not reach Freeport until tomorrow afternoon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:54, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I just got back from being away from internet access all weekend, checked the TWO, and OMG. I knew it would be a C5, but this storm has officially lost its mind! Beatissima (talk) 23:57, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * For what it's worth the UKX2 model predicts Dorian to peak at 190 kts I will sell out my room for one dollar and move in to a stranger's treehouse if that happens. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:06, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Tidbits says Dorian's down to 180 mph, but Dorian will probably keep weakening from here on out, it can't really get too much stronger because Dorian's slow movement means it'll suffer from upwelling over its own wake if it stays in one place for too long, and moving out of the favorable conditions he's in will cause him to decline too. But he certainly left his mark on the Abaco Islands, with some parts of the islands having not only almost all structures destroyed, but their topography will be changed forever, as Dorian's massive storm surge swept parts of the islands away, similar to Walaka on east island as I said above. Ryan1000 01:44, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall on Grand Bahama Island
Officially down to 180 mph, but the pressure has decreased one to 914 mbar. It's made landfall on the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. As the next island in Dorian's path of catastrophe, towns and cities such as Freeport could be absolutely devastated or even partly wiped off the face of the earth. God help them all... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:42, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Freeport MUST be prepared for Dorian, especially after what happened in the Abacos. Storm surge, heavy rains & very high winds are the main threats from this deluge. The storm surge from Dorian eerily reminded me of Haiyan/Yolanda in the WPac six years ago. This really is one for the record books. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:36, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian is defying the models on both trajectory and speed. It actually has increased forward movement from 5 to 6 mph as of the last update and is moving slightly to the south of due west contrary to what the models say it is supposed to do. The likelihood of major Florida impacts are increasing. Models are also beginning to tend back west. There is no room for error and even that 1 mph increase over a few hours get Dorian that much close to the coast especially if the turn comes later than expected. Florida landfall is still very much in play. --Whiplash (talk) 04:51, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * A 7 year old boy has been confirmed as the first death in the Bahamas from Dorian. Drowned in the storm surge. :( --Whiplash (talk) 05:00, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Heartbreaking. Beatissima (talk) 05:37, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * This just sucks. 🙁 His life was cut short way too young. Unfortunately considering the devastation it wrought there, more deaths may be inevitable. It has weakened further to 175 mph/916 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:59, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Further down to 165 mph, pressure remains the same. Still a Category 5 though, currently moving west at 1 mph. The northward turn might happen soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:38, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Turns out that Grand Bahama International Airport is now under water. There is also a Facebook group dedicated to locating the missing persons in Abaco. For Florida, winds remain a threat from Dorian, but the precipitation that this monster will bring should also be noted. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:48, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * 6AM EDT update: Dorian is now wobbling over Grand Bahama. The widely expected turn may just be around the corner now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:12, September 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Dorian has just been sitting over the same place on Grand Bahama for about 4-5 hours now. With it moving incredibly slowly at 1 mph, I can’t even begin to imagine the destruction in the areas that the eyewall has been sitting over for the past few hours. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 11:41, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Dorian (2nd time)
Down to a Category 4. 155/922 Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 14:51, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Seems like Dorian is undergoing ERC, and NHC expects that its wind field will expand further. Grand Bahama has been battered by the eye and eyewall of Dorian for 14 hours now. This is utterly horrific. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Something to [somehow???] cheer us up: just saw this tweet saying that Dorian's name should be changed to Dory because it doesn't know where it's really going... I mean, the user isn't wrong... Dorian is still moving  crawling westwards as I write this, but the turn is expected to happen within this day. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:47, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

The city of Freeport pretty much got devastated by Dorian, the images coming out of Grand Bahama and Abaco are absolutely chilling. Not to mention the rip current threat to the east coast is quite notable, even if Dorian doesn't make landfall in the U.S, and will be for some time as it moves up the coastline. If Dorian follows it's current forecast track near the center, it might eventually make a landfall in the outer banks of North Carolina, or narrowly miss them to the east, though Dorian will probably be a category 2 hurricane by that point. Ryan1000 16:52, September 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * It is now apparent that Dorian has begun the northwest movement albeit very slowly. It is also finishing up an ERC and expanding its windfield increasing its eye size. Also reports of increased lightning and cooler cloud tops again as it reemerges over water. Could likely reintensify back into a Category 5 as it begins taking energy from the Gulf Stream. Based on current trajectory Cape Canaveral could very well be scraped by the eyewall. People need to leave that area immediately as there is more than enough evidence in the Bahamas of how scary this storm is. The Carolinas will likely see a major storm surge event later this week the Grand Banks should probably be getting evacuated asap. --Whiplash (talk) 17:36, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Will say first recon in quite some time finding pressure of 939ish. ERC definitely took some punch out of it. Funny thing is I see some people on Twitter saying that Dorian is much weaker now. Bitch please, 939 is still NOT a weak hurricane by any stretch. --Whiplash (talk) 17:45, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

New advisory says 150/938, but Dorian's still extremely dangerous and will likely do heavy damage to the parts of the coast that get the closest brush with Dorian's eyewall. Ryan1000 18:21, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now down to 140 mph/942 mbar but still lashing the Bahamas with its fury. Videos at this link just show the extreme devastation left behind and storm surge so bad that it looks like the area turned into Atlantis. This has to be the worst hurricane ever in Bahamas history at this point. And it's also beginning to lash the eastern Florida coast. This monster will live in infamy for decades to come. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:30, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 130/946 and is expected to weaken further on. Still stationary, and from what I've heard, will sit above Grand Bahama until tomorrow morning (can someone confirm?). The devastation is beyond disbelief. No words.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:23, September 03, 2019 (UTC)

C3 now, 120 mph/951 mbar. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:23, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * Dorian is only slowly chugging away from Grand Bahama, but it'll slowly pick up speed from here on out. The storm is currently fairly ragged, with its eye fading on some of the views on satellite imagery, probably because it's been sitting in the same area for so long that it's now sitting over colder, upwelled water over its own wake. Still expected to remain a major for at least another few more days though, until Dorian reaches a point when it's east of the Georgia/SC border. Ryan1000 12:44, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Dorian (2nd time)
95 kts/955 mbar and finally moving to the northwest, albeit at a 2 mph slither. Lost MH status sooner than I anticipated but a high-end Category 2 is still nothing to scoff at, and Dorian is growing in size all the while, with hurricane-force winds now going out 60 miles from the center and TS winds going out 175 miles. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:31, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now seems to finally be moving away from Grand Bahama, although they will continue to feel tropical storm-force winds for the next day or so. Its close approach to Florida might mean they could receive some tropical storm-force or even hurricane-force winds along the coast. It's even now threatening landfall in the Carolinas, with hurricane watches and warnings extended up towards Virginia. The Bahamas damage is absolutely horrific and the worst they've ever seen in perhaps all of history. I hope as many people as possible survived the catastrophe there even if their islands got absolutely devastated and their lives changed forever. 🙁 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:12, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * The models are looking scary for the Outer Banks, and the models are showing a very powerful hurricane heading into Nova Scotia and Atlantic Canada. Could be looking at the most powerful hurricane/post-tropical to hit Atlantic Canada in a very long time (maybe since Juan) if this models pan out to be true. Scary. --Whiplash (talk) 23:37, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * This thing is still paralleling Florida's east coast... A snail might be faster than Dorian at this point. The Canadian Maritimes must also prepare for this one, as this is expected to hit them at hurricane intensity, albeit extratropical. Dorian is still a Category 2, 964 mbars, 105 mph. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:52, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this has been moving extremely slowly ever since it slowed down over the northern Bahamas. Total death total up to 12, 7 of them official and 5 unofficial, and sadly should rise further as more bodies are found in the Bahamas and potentially while trekking the East Coast. The Carolinas should be preparing for a likely landfall. The east coast of Florida has been pounded by TS-force winds and bands of rain, hopefully impacts there so far aren't too bad. In the long run Atlantic Canada should be pounded as well, hopefully they're keeping an eye. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:11, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Dorian (3rd time)
Back up to a Category 3. 115 mph, 955 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 02:59, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * By 8 PM EDT this should go back down to a non-major hurricane.Ȝeſtikl (talk) 07:54, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like Cape Cod, Maetha’s Vineyard and Nantucket got a TS watchȜeſtikl (talk) 09:09, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Now expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia as a tropical hurricane. EDIT:Nevermind, it’s not.Ȝeſtikl (talk) 08:07, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * This re-intensification will be short-lived, Dorian will be back down to a cat 2 soon. Itll probably make landfall on NC's outer banks at this rate before turning out to sea. Fortunately, the southern half of Dorian (which will remain offshore) is the stronger side of the storm. Ryan1000 10:59, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * 25 fatalities now: 20 of them in Abacos and Grand Bahama, 5 in the U.S. (1 in PR, 3 in FL, 1 in NC). Dorian is a very, very bad evil storm. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:43, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Dorian (3rd time)
Back to C2. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:01, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

And just like that, Dorian is back to MH status. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:10, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

1AM EDT update: Back to 110 mph again, smh. This storm can't stop clowning everyone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:33, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * NHC actually released a correction of the 12pm update stating that the winds were actually 110 mph instead of 115, so Dorian has remained a C2 since its downgrade a few hours ago. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:08, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now down to 105 mph/960 mbar. Looks like it will make a landfall at this rate. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:55, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Finally down to a Category 1. 90 mph, 958 mbars. Can Dorian just go away already? Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 06:49, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * He refuses to go away just yet. Dorian is expected to make landfall on Nova Scotia or Cape Breton as either a weak hurricane or strong tropical storm.Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:38, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Before getting to Canada, it might actually make landfall in the US. The center is very close to Cape Hatteras, and unless it somehow makes a sharp turn to the right at this very moment, landfall is looking very likely. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 11:24, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall on Cape Hatteras
Dorian's eye just recently crossed the coast near the eastern tip of Cape Hatteras as a category 1 storm, making this his only U.S. landfall. He'll be moving up to Atlantic Canada, maybe hitting Halifax, NS, as a cat 1, before dissipating. Hopefully impacts won't be too severe there. Ryan1000 12:28, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Alright, it's now a Category 1 and finally leaving the U.S. although impacts in North Carolina might continue for at least the next few hours. Some outer bands could be affecting the more northern East Coast states and potentially New England, where TS warnings have been issued for Cape Cod and northeastern Maine. Hurricane warnings up for Nova Scotia, hopefully they aren't hit too hard. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:35, September 6, 2019 (UTC

Expected to reintensify back to Category 2 before hitting Nova Scotia. Current track has it coming very close to where Juan made landfall in 2003 which is widely considered to be the worst hurricane in modern Canadian history. This looks like it will be very similar in terms of impact although it is a much larger storm. Hurricane Arthur in 2014 caused the governments to make efforts to cut trees and reform emergency outage preparedness to avoid the 2 weeks of outages during the last storms. I hope they pay off, either way I have gotten supplies as I will be in the tropical storm force winds from Dorian as it comes through the Maritimes. Thing is you don't need huge winds to have a big impact here as most trees here are not built to withstand high winds; weather and emergency officials in Canada already saying this will be the worst hurricane since Juan. --Whiplash (talk) 00:17, September 7, 2019 (UTC)


 * Igor of 2010 was arguably as bad for Newfoundland as Juan was for Nova Scotia, as Igor was a giant-sized category 1 hurricane that was slow-moving once it reached the Avalon Peninsula, a rare occurence for a Canadian hurricane. It caused 200 million USD in damage and was called Newfoundland's worst hurricane in 75-100 years, like Juan was for Halifax. Dorian will be moving much faster than Juan or Igor did, so it won't stick around for very long, but it could still bring somewhat notable impacts to the area. Hopefully it doesn't though, the massive devastation in the Bahamas was awful enough. Ryan1000 00:53, September 7, 2019 (UTC)


 * I didn’t realize it was moving at 25 mph. It passed by fast. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:16, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Upped to Category 2 intensity (likely due to baroclinity), 100 mph/953 mbar as it closes in on Nova Scotia. Tropical storm force winds are covering a pretty large area now, including almost all of Nova Scotia. Expected to complete extratropical transition during the next day or so. Hopefully any impacts are meager because we've all had enough after the Bahamas devastation. Good riddance to Dorian! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:12, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
Extratropical now, still at 85 kts/953 mbar which makes it the most powerful post-TC in many years (I forget which was the last one to go extratropical while still at Category 2 intensity [EDIT: I believe the previous instance was Michael '00]). Advisories still ongoing, I presume for as long as the threat to Atlantic Canada remains. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:46, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * I believe Sandy also had a powerful pressure when it turned extratropical, although its winds were below C2-force. Anyway, Dorian is dying out at last. Considering its quick movement I doubt it will be a re-Juan or Igor, but they still might get very significant impacts nonetheless. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:38, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nearly half a million people without power in Canada at the moment. Major rain in New Brunswick my work place was temporarily surrounded by street flooding earlier today. Lots of reports of trees down, cranes down, roofs coming off in Halifax by far the largest city being affected by this. Could potentially be worse than Juan from a damage perspective. No reports of fatalities so far thankfully. Will hit Western Newfoundland tomorrow. --Whiplash (talk) 00:45, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall near Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia
Dorian has made its fifth landfall. (St. Lucia, Abaco, Grand Bahama, Cape Hatteras, Sambro Creek)Ȝeſtikl (talk) 01:29, September 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * It's zipping on by fairly fast, so it'll be out of Canada soon enough. Hopefully the impacts weren't as bad as Juan's were in 2003. Also, trivial note: Dorian racked up a fairly impressive 49.7975 ACE units before going post-tropical, which is the highest ACE for the 4th storm of an Atlantic hurricane season since Carrie in 1957 (there was an unnamed TS before Carrie that year) However, that only slightly puts Dorian in the top 20 highest ACE totals for a single Atlantic hurricane (18th). Ryan1000 02:48, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

Landfalls over Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland - Final Demise
Dorian has now moved over P.E.I. and made another brief landfall on the northernmost part of Newfoundland island. After 64 advisories, The NHC is finally discontinuing advisories as Dorian meets its final demise over the cold waters of the northern Atlantic. Good riddance to what has been an absolutely terrible monster for the Bahamas. Impacts to the southeast U.S., the eastern seaboard, and Atlantic Canada might also have been pretty bad. The totals are now at least $7 billion (I believe in the BAHAMAS alone!) and 51 deaths (46 direct, 5 indirect). Dorian will live in infamy for a long time to come. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:29, September 9, 2019 (UTC)


 * Finally, Dorian is gone. Dorian was an incredibly annoying storm to track. Unfortunately, unlike some other notably annoying storms in the past (Fay 2008, Nadine 2012, etc.) Dorian caused catastrophic impacts in the Bahamas while making the strongest landfall in the Atlantic, tying with the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane. There is absolutely no chance that Dorian will be back on the list in 2025, and unfortunately, I expect the death toll in the Bahamas to rise in the coming weeks due to the absolute devastation. I seriously hope the rest of this season is just quiet, and at this point, I hope 2020 is a repeat of 2014. Not just because of Dorian either, because I’ve had it with the Harveys and the Irmas and the Marias and the Florences and the Michaels. I much preferred the peace and quiet the Atlantic had for a few years (aside from a few notable storms) compared to the constant devastation the last three years have brought. Yet, unfortunately, there’s still more than two months of hurricane season left. Leeboy100 Hello! 06:39, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Also, Dorian continues a streak I’ve pointed out in different storms the last two years. Every year since 2014, there has been at least one Category 5 in the Western Hemisphere. Marie in 2014, Patricia in 2015, Matthew in 2016, Irma and Maria in 2017, Lane, Walaka, Willa and Michael in 2018, and now Dorian in 2019. With Dorian, 2019 is also the fourth consecutive season to feature a Category 5 in the Atlantic, breaking the previous streak of three in 2003-05. If there has to be another Category 5 this season or next season, I just hope it’s just a Pacific Category 5 that stays out to sea. Leeboy100 Hello! 06:45, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

Aftermath of Dorian
I mentioned the now record 4-year category 5 streak in the Atlantic once before, if you see above Leeboy, but anyways, with Dorian dead, like I did with the SWIO's Cyclone Idai earlier this year, we're going to make another section discussing Dorian's aftermath in the Bahamas, the eastern U.S, and Atlantic Canada before we archive this. So far, the death toll has risen to 53, with at least 44 in the Bahamas, 1 in Puerto Rico, 6 in Florida, 2 in North Carolina, and none so far in Canada. Damages are at least 7 billion so far, all in the Bahamas, with no estimates currently available for the U.S. or Canada. Ryan1000 12:18, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * The Abacos Islands and Grand Bahama have been reduced to what can be described as a "nuclear wasteland". People are evacuating in droves due to lack of access to food, water, or shelter. Many cruise lines have been sending water and meals to the Bahamas though. The Grand Celebration successfully brought more than 1,100 evacuees to Florida with other cruise lines and ferries offering to help the evacuees find food or water, or escape. This is likely the worst humanitarian crisis in the history of the Bahamas. $7 billion is a huge bill for a small country like the Bahamas. For comparison, their GDP is $12.16 billion! What an absolute catastrophe. I'm sure impacts in the U.S. and Atlantic Canada will probably also be in the billions (I'm expecting as high as $5 billion, maybe even more). Like Leeboy said, I've had enough of seeing these goddamn devastators. I mean seriously Atlantic, no more producing Matthews, Harveys, Irmas, Marias, Florences, Michaels, or Dorians and have a quieter season in 2020. A re-2014 or 2009 would be very nice now, but not a re-2013 because that was a nightmarishly boring year for hurricane trackers. Four years in a row with a C5 is almost to the point of unbelievable, especially after the 9-year streak of no C5s between Felix and Matthew. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * 2009 was a bit snoozy too Steve, at least in my opinion :/ 2014 would be my go-to; there may have only been 8 named storms, but a 4:3:1 ratio of tropical storms:hurricanes:major hurricanes more than compensated for the overall lack of activity, and no storm was particularly destructive (arguably except for Gonzalo, but even he wasn't as severe as anticipated). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:37, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * 2009 still had Bill and Fred though. 😛 Much better than 2013 which had no majors at all. However, I do agree a re-2014 would be the nicest of them all. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:18, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

Death toll stands at 50, but this report says that 3,000 may have died in The Bahamas. That would make Dorian the deadliest since Maria/Jeanne, or even Mitch. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:32, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

September
Since it's only a day away, this section has been added. The two AOIs in Africa and GOM will be transferred here if they become TDs. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:40, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * models are hinting that the wave behind fernand to be will take an irma type path. Looking likely itllgbe humberto. PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:54, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Off the coast of Africa
New wave being shown off of Africa on the NHC site. 0/20 Leeboy100 Hello! 07:02, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/30.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 14:27, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/40 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:57, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * This wave gives me chills. A potentially major Fernand could be looming. Hopefully it's a fishspinner if it develops because we don't need any more devastation after Dorian's threat and the impacts of big ones in previous years. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:52, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/50.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 05:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Judging by the 5-day TWO, this looks like a fishspinner. The 10/20 AOI in the GOM is more concerning for me, as it may become a big rain event which might cause flooding in Mexico or other areas in the Gulf. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:54, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 20/60 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:36, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Looking likely that this storm will be a fishspinner, due to a quick northern turn it'll take soon, so this probably won't do much on land. But it might have a chance to RI to a semi-strong hurricane, if previous storms like Fred and Julia in this position are anything to judge by. Ryan1000 14:16, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * I predict a cat 2 from Fernand. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:56, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hopefully this will be a fishspinner, looks like that will likely be the case. Has a chance to be our next major IMO. Still won't rule out the possibility that it curves back to the west after the end of the 5-day TWO forecast and eventually threatens Bermuda and New England/Atlantic Canada in the very long run. Gives me slight Florence vibes tbh. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Increased to 50/70. This is becoming interesting. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:16, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Looks like this is finally invested. ChowKam2002 (talk) 13:34, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Any analogs for this storm? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:39, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

60/70 now. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:45, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is looking most likely to become Fernand. Hopefully it will be a fish. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:06, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 60/80. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:54, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * 80/80, a TD may arrive tomorrow morning. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:00, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Added these AOI's to September as they'll form in the month by now, if they develop. Also, I archived August sans Dorian, who will get his own archive when he dissipates. Anyways, this'll probably become Fernand first, but it's unlikely to affect land, besides Cabo Verde. Ryan1000 16:58, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 21:04, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Beware the first storm of September!!!!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:06, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

90/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:07, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * Probably not this year Dylan, The first storm this month will not be very notable, if it's this storm it'll be a fishspinner, if it's PTC 7 it'll be a short-lived and weak TS hitting Mexico. Ryan1000 12:40, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
It’s a TD. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 21:03, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gabrielle-to-be looks like it'll take an almost straight path northwestward with little strengthening. Forecast to reach 50 mph by Thursday and stay that way through the rest of the forecast due to complicating factors. But it could weaken or strengthen along the way. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:15, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * actf says this is gabby PeterPiper567 (talk) 02:24, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah just noticed Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:25, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Weirdly, NHC went against an upgrade for the new advisory :/ guess Gabrielle will have to wait another 6 to 12 hours. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:48, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Now it’s named. 40 mph, 1005 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 09:24, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 kts (50 mph)/1003 mbar now, forecast peak near the end of the period raised to 55 kts. Rooting for the first Hurricane Gabrielle since 2001, which would also be the first hurricane to bear a female name this season — heck, it's already the strongest lady of the season so far simply by intensifying past 35 kts! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:01, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like the boys are taking everything this year... PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:29, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, so far the girls (Andrea, Chantal, Erin) have been fails and the male names have been destructive (although Fernand might not be terribly bad compared to Barry and Dorian, especially Dorian). Gabrielle, however, should be better than the other girl names, with a forecast peak of 65 mph and it could potentially be a hurricane. At least this is a fishspinner though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:16, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50 mph. Now forecast to become a hurricane early next week. Looks like this will be the first girls' name not to fail this year. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:54, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yes Gabrielle. Become a hurricane! Ȝeſtikl (talk) 00:45, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately it’s still poorly organized but a hurricane would be possible as it turns to the northeast.  Sandy 156   :)  14:29, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 45 mph/1002 mbar. This thing is struggling under high wind shear to stay alive. I would say it might have a chance at becoming a remnant low before regenerating and becoming a possible hurricane. Gabrielle reminds me of Felix '89. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:57, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle
I'm-- I am shocked. Last advisory has been issued by the NHC (for now). 40 mph, 1004 mbars. Hopefully it regenerates during the weekend, as said by the same weather bureau. Slight chance of becoming a hurricane before it becomes extratropical again. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:36, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gabrielle (2nd time)
Guess what- we didn't need to wait that long. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:28, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gabrielle is now forecast to peak at 85 mph, which means that we might finally have a fishspinning hurricane this season. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:57, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * This was post-tropical for such a short time lol. It's possible in post-analysis they might remove the post-tropical part altogether (or extend it). Yeah, a fishspinning hurricane is very likely - it might even have Category 2 potential. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:37, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gabrielle is starting to remind me of last year's Leslie. Beatissima (talk) 23:17, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on its way to becoming a hurricane. Up to 60 mph/999 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:51, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Center has relocated to the west; down to 50 mph/1002 mbar.  Sandy 156   :)  18:18, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Forecast peak intensity lowered to 75 mph. I hope it can still become a hurricane... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:14, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * And now it's not even forecast to become a hurricane anymore... 🙁 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:41, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Strengthened to 65 mph/995 mbar, it may become a brief hurricane before turning extratropical.  Sandy 156   :)  22:11, September 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it does become a hurricane, but it'll be like a re-Barry if it does so. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:31, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

Sadly its weakening now... down to 50 mph/1000 mbar. A guess a hurricane wasn't meant to be. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:27, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * This has been a sexist season so far :( hopefully Imelda can take one home for the ladies and lend its name to a hurricane, as long as it isn't destructive. At least Gabrielle became the third-strongest storm of the season so far...! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:32, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gabrielle at least tried to become a hurricane, but sadly it didn’t. At least Gabrielle is the strongest of all the tropical storms this season. Try again in 2025, Gabrielle.  Sandy 156   :)  23:40, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle (2nd time)
And she's gone... for good (or at least until 2025). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:12, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
An AOI popped up just recently in the southeastern GoM. At 10/20 rn.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 05:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gulf is a hot tub, wind shear is low and luttle dry air. Can't see this not becoming Gabrielle. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:57, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Or Fernand if it develops quicker than the Cape Verde wave. The race is on for our next named storm. Now 20/30 on the TWO, but considering the threat to northeastern Mexico, hopefully it's not going to RI. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:11, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like both will be named imo PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:53, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * still 20/30, will it get a name PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:39, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/40, this'll probably be Gabrielle if it develops. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:55, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:00, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Invested and now up to 60/70. This is currently organizing by the minute, so maybe this would be Gabrielle (or maybe even Fernand) if it forms.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 20:59, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * It's a race for the name "Fernand" at this point, although I still think this will be named Gabrielle and the Cape Verde invest gets Fernand. This really looks like it will repeat Gabrielle's 1995 incarnation. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:34, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Jumped to 80/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:07, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven
Seems that this will form first. Will likely peak as a weak TS though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:05, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

The two day TWO has PT 7 at 100/100 on the map, and 80/80 on the written statement (or whatever it's called). Which one is it? Ȝeſtikl (talk) 11:05, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * It's the former, 100/100. This'll probably become Fernand first at this rate, though we can't rule out the possibility that 91L could pull a surprise and jump to Fernand quickly. It'll probably become a tropical storm and move into Mexico, hopefully without causing any serious flooding. Ryan1000 12:38, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven
Now a TD. 30 kts/1004 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:32, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernand
And here we have the winner of the race to Fernand. 40 mph/1004 mb as of the latest advisory, it looks to be similar to Danielle in 2016. Send Help Please (talk) 18:03, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * Or even his last incarnation in 2013, albeit a little later in the season and farther north. Ryan1000 18:38, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * Another good comparison might still be Gabrielle in 1995, even though this storm won the race and got "Fernand" instead. It's likely to remain weak before landfall, an outside chance it RIs and reaches at least 60 mph though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:18, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * How sad, Fernand deja vued himself from 2013.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 23:15, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * Fernand is now at 50 mph/1000 mbar. May intensify further before making landfall.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 00:11, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall on Tamaulipas State
Actually, Fernand has made landfall now and is down to 40 mph. This really is almost a repeat of its 2013 incarnation except it's further north, and the best comparisons would be Beryl 2000, and like I said earlier, Gab '95. Hopefully it won't be too bad in northeastern Mexico. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:33, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fernand
It has been downgraded to a TD over land. Should dissipate soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:53, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Bye Fernand. You were short-lived. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 00:40, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Fernand
Bye bye.Ȝeſtikl (talk) 07:56, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Whoa, damage estimates are in, and they're all the way up to $383 million (with, sadly, at least one fatality on top of that). It's not enough to make Fernand a retirement candidate, but even keeping in mind that flooding rainfall can give weak storms like Fernand an equalizer to compensate for the relative lack of winds, I still didn't expect to see a damage figure quite that high. If that damage estimate and/or the death toll rise, then I guess the adage did verify this September, if not nearly on the level of Florence, Ike, Felix, or Ivan. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:44, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * A bit surprising to see the totals so high. I guess it was more significant than expected and might just somewhat meet "First Storm of September" criteria. These totals are not nearly enough for retirement though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:21, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: East of Dorian
0/20 as of the moment. Just like the WPac, the Atlantic is heating up. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:14, September 1, 2019 (UTC) Does anyone reckon this will get named? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:38, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

10/30 now. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:46, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * do you think it will be named PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:53, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I believe so. If they all develop and get named, we'll be up to Humberto by late week. And this is all after a mostly dead August before Chantal. The Atlantic has exploded for sure! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:10, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Wait even the mexico one? PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:52, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I'm just saying that they could all become tropical storms and get named, but it's not a guarantee. If this, the Mexico one, and the Cape Verde wave all become tropical storms, we'll be up to Humberto, but if at least one of them falls short, we won't go that far until a bit later in the season. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:03, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

But do YOU think they will all get named or not? That is the question. PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:04, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Like I said, we can't be sure. Maybe they all will, but at least one of them might also bust. We'll have to wait and see. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:32, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Dude, I mean judging from your opinion. YOUR OPINION. Including that huge wave from behind 91L. What order do you think they'll get named and which ones do you think will based on your intuition? In YOUR opinion will that big juicy African wave become Imelda?PeterPiper567 (talk) 21:21, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * 91L will become Fernand in my opinion. The Mexico AOI might be Gabrielle and this one might be Humberto. It's quite possible Imelda might come from a wave behind 91L. As far as all of them becoming named though, I'm not super confident right now because one or a couple AOIs also have a good likelihood of busting. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:01, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Good, because I hope at least one of them busts. PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:10, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Increased slightly to 10/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:38, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * It was actually 10/30 earlier in the day (see YellowSkarmory's post above). Now it's up to 30/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:02, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * And I oop-- I didn't notice it earlier, sorry for that. Anyway, the race for Fernand is truly on now. 91L at 80/80, two AOIs at 30/50. Not to mention that another tropical wave from Africa is emerging. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:08, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Now invested but decreased to 30/40.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 21:02, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30, but only a short window now before upper-level winds become unfavorable. Looks like this'll likely bust. I also noticed this glaring error: * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent. Is 30 percent low or medium chance? 😛 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:36, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Still 30/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:07, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * 40/40, might become a short-lived TS like Andrea. Ryan1000 12:45, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * PTC10 v2.0: Electric Boogaloo PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:18, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * 50/50. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 19:22, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Where'd the upper level winds go? Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:09, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Most likely still there because if upper-level winds were no longer forecast, the 5-day chances would be higher. This is looking increasingly likely to become a short-lived Humberto if it continues organizing at this rate. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:20, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * I just checked many wind shear maps and the shear is too strong. This will not be named. PeterPiper567 (talk) 22:41, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 60/60. I wouldn't rule out a short-lived failure like Andrea, Gil, or Henriette. Hopefully it's a TD at most because I don't like those epic failure TS name wasters. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, this will likely not even get a name. TD at most because it just moved into 40 knots plus of shear. PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:47, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

40/40. It moved into upper level winds produced by Dorian. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 07:58, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * 30/30. Bye bye . Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:16, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. Thankfully it didn't steal a name. 94L (the Cape Verde system) looks like it will be Humberto. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:59, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down and out, off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:38, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave Emerging From Africa
On the 5-day outlook at 0/20. Wow, the Atlantic really is exploding in time for the peak of the season. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:04, September 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Doesn't surprise me, the season was expected to pick up and will probably have quite a few more named storms before it's out. My forecast near the start was anywhere from 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and a cat 5 or two. We've already had 5 named storms, a category 5 in Dorian, and if all of the current waves develop into named storms, we'll be at Imelda in only a week from now, with a good two and a half months of hurricane season after that. Ryan1000 09:53, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 21:05, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's up to 0/50. Will probably be Humberto if it develops because 92L seems to be starting to bust, unless 92L pulls a surprise and steals a name. This wave gives me chills tbh, it has potential to be a big one like Florence or even Irma, but hopefully it curves out to sea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:39, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * What category do you predict from this wave? PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:52, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Too soon to know for sure. Probably likely to become a major hurricane (C3+). I personally predict a peak of Category 4 or something. This might even have Category 5 potential if conditions up ahead are favorable enough. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:52, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Currently 0/60. Will this continue the "I" curse? I hope not. Dorian is already enough. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:08, September 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * NHC does have a northward turn at the end of the 5-day forecast area, so there is a chance that this AOI will turn out to sea like 91L is currently expected to. Hopefully that happens. Ryan1000 12:49, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Anon 2.0, I don't even think 92L will be named. This is likely our H storm. H looks to be the new I. PeterPiper567 (talk) 15:39, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, seems like that's going to be the case. Though Helene from last year wasn't as notable as a tropical system, it later transformed into one of those European extratropical windstorms, albeit with less damage. I hope future Humberto will be a fishspinner through and through, and same goes for Imelda (I just want to see it used more than once). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:48, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * What peak and analog are you predicting from this storm, Anon? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:03, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * If this future system would be a fishspinner I want this to be a C3 but I'm predicting Category 2. (Btw, call me Jas. I just didn't change my display here since I joined a few years back). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:11, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Aight Jas. I'll call ya that then. Call me Peter. Any reason you're bearish? Dorian's cold wake? PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:17, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

0/70.  Has there ever been a 0/80 or 0/90? Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:12, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah I think I remember a couple during the past few years. Development is almost certain to occur in the future with this. Hopefully it's a fishspinner - the turn at the end of the 5-day forecast looks hopeful. However, this still gives me slight Florence and even Irma vibes. If 92L becomes a short-lived Humberto, well... Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:26, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * As Peter mentioned, the shear is likely too strong for 92L to develop. Even if it does, I don’t think it will be a named storm.Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:52, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Slightly down to 0/60. The wait for Humberto is slightly taking too long. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:53, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * what's going on.... PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:27, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Weird that all the incarnations of Humberto became hurricanes.... And that he's never storm number 8 either... PeterPiper567 (talk) 17:32, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I have noticed that too. Usually Humberto is the 9th system (there are always systems before it that peak at TD level, this year it was TD3). And yeah, Dorian's cold wake (and possibly Gabrielle's) is one of the reasons why I don't see this peaking as a very strong one, although only time will tell whether or not that will materialize. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:22, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down further to 0/50. I guess this might take longer to develop. Looks likely to be "Humberto" but I still wouldn't rule out 92L being a name stealer. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:40, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * And he'll keep his hurricane streak for the 5th time in a row PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:48, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

I don't like the fact it's taking longer to develop than earlier thought, because if it doesn't develop until later, it'll have a higher likelihood of threatening land down the road. Ryan1000 10:59, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/50 now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:19, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
AAAAAAAA SHIPS PREDICTS AT LEAST A CAT 2 WITH 29 DEGREE SSTS AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR... AND THAT WSW TURN ON TROP TIDBITS IS FREAKING ME OUT OMGGGGG 20/60 AAAAAAAA PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:54, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * honestly this freaks me out soooo much because my auntie is from martinique and this might lash the west indies PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:56, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah this freaks me out as well. This gives me slight Irma vibes and could be a pretty big monster in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:01, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Don't doomcast this just yet, the initial intensity guidance on Dorian when it was an invest called for a cat 2-3 when it reached the upper lessers and it was only a cat 1 as it was leaving them. It'll probably become Humberto down the road but it's way too soon to tell how strong it'll be when it reaches the Antilles. Ryan1000 22:24, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

20/70 now Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:23, September 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Intensity guidance is now down quite a bit, most models predict a cat 1 at best in the late forecast period when it's near the Antilles, and if it follows the latest GFS center path it might do what Dorian was initially forecast to do but didn't, which is, move over the DR and die over the mountains. Of course, this is all speculation and is quite a ways down the road, but it is a bit of relief from some of the earlier intensity forecasts for the long run of 94L. Ryan1000 12:20, September 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/70, the chances keep fluctuating. Down the road, I expect at least the Lesser Antilles to be impacted - hopefully it dies out over Hispaniola. A U.S. threat still looks to be in the cards for the very long run, but I hope not. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:41, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * What if that fatass wave behind 94L takes Humberto and 94L takes Imelda just like Helene and Isaac? PeterPiper567 (talk) 01:40, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/60, this will take longer to form. As for a Helene/Isaac scenario, it could be possible at this rate if this takes too long to develop. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:53, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Still at 10/60, and will probably be taking some time to develop. SST's are ripe for strong intensification in the NW Caribbean and GOM, but wind shear is currently very unfavorable there, as it is just south of PR and the northeastern antilles, where Dorian passed not too long ago. Shear will have to settle a bit if this wants to have any chance at Humberto, but (fortunately) it isn't expected to for now. Most of the intensity guidance predicts a TS from this when it nears the Antilles, maybe a C1, but unless shear settles this won't have much of a chance past the unfavorable eastern Caribbean. Ryan1000 14:00, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Are you kidding me? Shear is pretty light last time I checked the shear map 2 minutes ago. What you smokin dude? PeterPiper567 (talk) 14:17, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Um, what? Did you check this latest shear map near the Antilles? There's quite a strong red patch of shear just south of PR, and some way down the road near the Yucatan. The latter is obviously subject to change if 94L makes it that far out but the former is more in the near-future. Obviously there's almost none directly front of 94L right now but that wasn't what I was talking about, if the 25-30 knot shear currently near PR persists when 94L reaches the eastern Caribbean, it'll have a tough time there. Ryan1000 16:07, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Peter, be nice pls. What map were you even looking at lol? The map Ryan linked does show pretty strong shear over the areas mentioned. I assume maybe Peter was looking at the shear tendency map, which could be confusing to interpret and might seem to underestimate the amount of shear in the regions. Anyway, down to 10/50, this is such a frustrating invest. It might not even develop until next week, if that. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:20, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Down even further to 10/40. Looks like NHC is starting to think the "great eastern Caribbean shear" I mentioned above will kill it if it doesn't develop before the Antilles. Honestly, I'd rather prefer this not develop than steal Humberto and kill his hurricane streak, so long as the storm that eventually becomes Humberto turns OTS, like his last incarnation in 2013. Ryan1000 02:32, September 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Or maybe the fatass wave behind 94L eats up 94L and becomes humberto instead PeterPiper567 (talk) 02:52, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

I see that future AOI on some of the runs on Tidbits, though it's not officially on the TWO yet. Anyways, it seems like the shear I mentioned above is shifting farther east, now it's just east of the Antilles and 94L might not even develop at all if it gets torn up by that. But, better a failed invest than a fail named storm. Ryan1000 10:16, September 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * aw sheit it finna flop idk why doe


 * 1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while the low moves west-southwestward to westward across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. By Thursday, the upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


 * so this means it prolly won't form then bc of all dat sinkin air bro wtf is goin' on PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:30, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

"By Thursday, the upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation." -- Looks like I was right on the eastern Caribbean shear after all. But, if you see the section I made below, another AOI is probably going to be emerging off of Africa behind 94L sometime soon, and the GFS had some pretty scary long-term runs for it. Obviously that's a long ways ahead, but with the MDR heating up and conditions expected to become more favorable as the month goes on, we could definitely see another notable storm or two later in the season. Probably not from this particular system though. Ryan1000 01:57, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * A bit surprised this is flopping after all the potential it seemed to have a couple days ago. Still possible we get a short-lived fail from this, but I'm going to look at the wave behind it, as that seems to have much more potential to be very significant. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:35, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * it won't form it's 20/30 now
 * lol PeterPiper567 (talk) 14:45, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * 20% for 2 days and 30% for 5 days is not zero, lol. Those percentages mean there is still around a 1/4 chance of formation. Remember Chantal? That system was only at a 10% chance of formation before rapidly organizing and becoming named. And TD 3 initially didn't have much of a chance either, and neither did other surprises like Emily '17, Julia '16, or Jose '11. There's still a small chance this could blow up and steal Humberto, although I hope it won't. Shear will become unfavorable after mid-week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:35, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * it be eaten up by the fatass wave behind it doe PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:03, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20, development looking highly unlikely now. Humberto should come from either the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico or from the tropical wave behind it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:49, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: East of the Lessers
New AOI. 10/10 as of the moment. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:03, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * I doubt this will become much of anything, unless it pulls tricks on us. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:02, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:42, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Waste of an AOI. They might as well have not even included this on the TWO. I'd be shocked if this develops. Ryan1000 01:34, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Agreed, this barely even had a chance. No longer on the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:53, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Actually, scratch that, it's still on the 5-day, but at 0/20. Still probably won't become much. EDIT: Neither of the global models develop this. Ryan1000 02:38, September 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 0/20, but now north of Hispaniola and entering Bahamas territory. It's possible we could see something in the Gulf of Mexico. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:22, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
A bit of speculation ahead of time; this isn't officially on the TWO yet, but there are several long-range runs of the models predicting that another wave will follow behind 94L and become something notable down the road. THIS is the future wave you were probably referring to, Peter. And it's one we should definitely watch out for, assuming the long-range model runs do come to pass. Ryan1000 13:41, September 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Issa new TWO mention: 0/20. Gonna eat out 94L FASS bro. PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:06, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Also dem latest GFS runs makin' me crap my pants. Some showing Fabian, Isabel or even Maria repeats. Heck I saw a Katrina in there too. Bro wtf PeterPiper567 (talk) 19:08, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * This seems to be one to watch. If those models come to fruition, we will see the 2nd retirement candidate out of this. I've had enough of devastation though, and hope this can go out to sea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:38, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

This is the wave the GFS was doomcasting with a few runs yesterday, not 94L, and obviously it's still a long ways ahead but with 94L moistening up the environment and eating up the shear ahead of this wave, there's a very distinct chance this could become a notable storm down the road. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 21:58, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * BROOO DUDE WTF now ppl sayin this has a georges or david vibe to it! What about you? PeterPiper567 (talk) 22:50, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

The latest 18Z GFS run says David 2.0, though personally, I'm unfortunately getting Ivan-like feelings from this...although this may not be as strong as Ivan when it reaches the Antilles, I have the feeling it could go father west through the Caribbean and turn north towards the GOM, in the distant future. Ryan1000 00:32, September 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * bro what peak do you predict from future humberto PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:55, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

If push comes to shove this might eventually become our second cat 5, but under favorable conditions for this storm down the road, I'm hoping nothing more than a cat 4 (and even then, that would still be bad for the Caribbean). It's looking more and more unrealistic to think that nothing much at all will come from this down the road. Ryan1000 02:42, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

Still 0/20 for now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:49, September 10, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - Continued the streak of pre-season storms. However, this was an epic failure, and never became fully tropical. A waste of a name if you ask me. The pre-season formation is the only thing that saved it from receiving the "Z" grade.
 * <font color="#FF5">Barry : <font color="#0AA">18%, <font color="#AF0">C - A very small chance of retirement due to the flooding it caused in and around Louisiana. Current damage total of >$600 million shouldn't be enough for the U.S. to retire the name, since they usually retire storms that cause more than a billion in damage. But impacts aside, at least we saw an early first hurricane.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Three : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#500">Z - If you blinked, you missed it. Incredibly short-lived failure that brought only showers to the Bahamas and Florida.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Harmless weak tropical storm. Gets a bit of grading credit for forming unexpectedly out of the blue and lasting a few days, but still a very weak system that never surpassed 40 mph/1009 mb.
 * <font color="#905"> DORIAN : <font color="#100">~100%, <font color="#05F">A - An absolute monster! The northern Bahamas (Abacos Islands, Grand Bahama) got absolutely devastated from this 185 mph beast. Retirement is guaranteed due to the impacts to the Bahamas (especially), the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. The grade could have been "S", but it is disqualified from receiving anything higher than "A" due to the horrific devastation it wrought.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Erin : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - Another pathetic steal of a name. Even worse than Chantal because this didn't do anything special.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Fernand : <font color="#00A">9%, <font color="#F30">E - Short-lived and affected northeastern Mexico. $383 million and at least 1 death shouldn't be enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gabrielle : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#FF5">C1 , <font color="#FD5">C2 , <font color="#FB5">C3 , <font color="#F85">C4 , <font color="#F55">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#905">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% ; <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: DORIAN

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: 

Staying: Andrea, Barry (leaning towards "Likely Staying"), Chantal, Erin, Fernand

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * Gabrielle - Staying

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Dorian ( RETIRED ):
 * Dylan
 * Darren
 * Dominic
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dustin
 * Drake
 * Davis

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: Dorian > Damien



How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Melissa.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Karen or Lorenzo, or go further to Nestor or Olga.
 * Pablo or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Jerry or before is also unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see 3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first of these systems is Dorian at the end of August-start of September, while the second one could occur in mid-September. A 3rd one for October or even mid-late September is possible.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 04:24, September 10, 2019 (UTC))
 * Chances that Humberto will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Probably coming from 94L.
 * Chances that Imelda will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should be here by mid-September. Could come from the next tropical wave to emerge.
 * Chances that Jerry will be used: <font color="#500">97% - Almost certain to reach this name. May be a mid-late September storm.
 * Chances that Karen will be used: <font color="#B00">83% - Also highly likely that we will reach this name, and might be an end of September or early October storm.
 * Chances that Lorenzo will be used: <font color="#F30">67% - Assuming this forms, it should be in October or at latest, November.
 * Chances that Melissa will be used: <font color="#FC0">53% - May or may not form this year. If it does form, I expect to see it by the end of October, in November, or as a post-season surprise. Most likely to conclude the season.
 * Chances that Nestor will be used: <font color="#9D0">41% - Chances start to be in favor of not reaching up to here. Will most likely be a late-season or post-season surprise if it does come.
 * Chances that Olga will be used: <font color="#3B0">30% - We will possibly not get as far as we did last year, although there's still a chance.
 * Chances that Pablo will be used: <font color="#0AA">19% - I will be surprised if Pablo forms this year.
 * Chances that Rebekah will be used: <font color="#05A">10% - Tying 2017's named storms is highly unlikely to occur this year.
 * Chances that Sebastien will be used: <font color="#00A">5% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. Environmental conditions this year should not support this much activity.
 * Chances that Tanya will be used: <font color="#30A">1% - The Atlantic will have to really explode, contrary to forecasts for this season. Not going to happen.
 * Chances that Van will be used: <font color="#60A">0.5% - Not going to happen either. A strange miracle will have to take place to somehow get this far.
 * Chances that Wendy will be used: <font color="#95A">0.01% - Basically no chance at all that we will exhaust the naming list this year.
 * Chances that Alpha or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - I would have a better chance at getting struck by lightning or even winning the lottery than the Atlantic getting this far in 2019.

Sandy's retirements and grades
My turn to do retirements and grades!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#80CCFF">PTC, <font color="#5EBAFF">TD/SD , <font color="#00faf4">TS/SS , <font color="#F3E5AB">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea :  F ,  0%  — Was notable for continuing the off-season streak forming in May and the sudden formation due to recon, however it was a weak and short-lived storm that never turned fully tropical. The off-season formation saved it from getting a Z.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Barry : <font color="#0099FF">C+ , <font color="#CCCC00">20%  — A July hurricane that made landfall in Louisiana, inflicting >$600 million (USD) and however only caused an indirect death. Barry was also the wettest tropical cyclone in Arkansas, dropping over 16 in (421 mm) in the state. I doubt Barry would go for its impacts since the WMO typically retire storms w/ a higher damage and death toll.


 * <font color="#5EBAFF">Three :  Z ,  N/A  — A short-lived and weak tropical depression. Do I even have to explain this further?


 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal :  E ,  0%  — A weak fish that formed out of nowhere which surprised most of us. It held on for its life for 3 days, earning a E.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Dorian : <font color="#00CC66">A , <font color="FF1493">100%  — Wow, I’m shocked. This 185 mph monster completely devastated the Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands, leaving behind catastrophic damage in its wake. There is no way that Dorian will stay after its severe impacts not only in the Bahamas but also the U.S and Atlantic Canada.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Erin :  F ,  0%  — A weak storm that did nothing special despite being stronger than Dorian.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Fernand :  E ,  1%  — A 50 mph tropical storm that struck Mexico; damages are minor.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gabrielle :  TBA  — Currently active.

Retirement summary:

Definitely Retired (>95%): Dorian

Most Likely Retired (75-90%): None

Likely Retired (55-70%): None

Tossup (45-50%): None

Likely Not Retired (25-40%): None

Most Likely Not Retired (5-20%): Barry

Definitely Not Retired (<5%): Andrea, Chantal, Erin, Fernand

Name chances of being used:


 * Humberto: <font color="FF1493">100%  - May be coming with us for 94L if not in mid to late September.


 * Imelda: <font color="FF69B4">99%  - May be coming with us in late September.


 * Jerry: <font color="CC0000">85%  - Highly likely it'll form, may be coming with us in late September or early October if it forms.


 * Karen: <font color="CC3300">75%  - Likely going to form, may be coming in the latter parts of October.


 * Lorenzo:  60%  - It’s a bit likely that it’ll form, may be coming in October.


 * Melissa:  50%  - A tossup, but likely going to end at this name. If it does, it'll have to be in November or even December.


 * Nestor: <font color="CCCC66">35%  - Unlikely will to form, if it does, it'll probably have to be in late November or December.


 * Olga: <font color="FFFF00">25%  - I doubt that we'll surpass 2018, although it still has a chance.


 * Pablo:  10%  - Nope, I doubt we'll see Pablo also.


 * Rebakah:  5%  - I would be in total shock in this name is used this year.


 * Sebastien:  2.5%  - Nope, we won't be seeing Sebastien this year.


 * Tanya:  1%  - Extremely doubt that this year will be active as 1995.


 * Van: <font color="00CC00">0.01%  - Very extremely doubt that this year will be the third-active Atl season ever.


 * Wendy and beyond:  0%  - Heck no, there's no way that we will reach Wendy and/or the Greek.

That’s all for now folks!

 Sandy 156   :)  19:52, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 22:17, September 8, 2019 (UTC)]

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

 * Andrea - 0%
 * Barry - 10%
 * Three - N/A
 * Chantal - 0%
 * Dorian - 100%
 * Erin - 0%
 * Fernand - 1%
 * Gabrielle - 0%
 * Humberto - Formation: 100%
 * Imelda - Formation: 90%
 * Jerry - Formation: 80%
 * Karen - Formation: 70%
 * Lorenzo - Formation: 60%
 * Melissa - Formation: 40%
 * Nestor - Formation: 20%
 * Olga - Formation: 10%
 * Pablo - Formation: 2%
 * Rebekah - Formation: 1%
 * Sebastien - Formation: 0%
 * Tanya - Formation: 0%
 * Van - Formation: 0%
 * Wendy - Formation: 0%
 * Greeks - Formation: 0%

Beatissima (talk) 22:31, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

ChowKam's Retirement Predictions
Gotta rate these juicy storms... ''Note: I am rather extreme with my retirement predicions - if a storm seems unlikely to be retired, it won't be retired. If a storm seems likely to be retired, it will be retired.''
 * Andrea: 0% - Was weak. But still, a pre-season storm is nice.
 * Barry: 5% - A nice, weird early season hurricane. Damages shouldn't warrant retirement.
 * Three: N/A - While technically a failure, it was a nice depression to watch.
 * Chantal: 0% - Weak, but was a surprise weird formation. Lasted a bit.
 * Dorian: Currently Active

ChowKam2002 (talk) 16:06, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Harveycane's predictions and grades
Overview=

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#D4AF37">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Formation chance/retirement percentages:
 * <font color="#666">0% 
 * <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9%  (Nearly 0%)
 * <font color="#00FFFF">1-9%  (Extremely unlikely)
 * <font color="#00D5D5">10-19%  (Very unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A0A0">20-29%  (Unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A000">30-39%  (Somewhat unlikely)
 * <font color="#FFC800">40-49%  (Medium)
 * <font color="#FF8800">50-59%  (Somewhat likely)
 * <font color="#E80000">60-69%  (Likely)
 * <font color="#B40000">70-79%  (Very likely)
 * <font color="#800000">80-89%  (Extremely likely)
 * <font color="#000000">90-99%  (Nearly certain)
 * <font color="#000080">100%  (Certain)

Retirement predictions and grades=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Weak, forgettable, short lived. Need I say more?
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Barry : <font color="#00D5D5">17%, <font color="#FF0">C- - One of the ugliest "hurricanes" I've ever seen, for that reason it gets a C-. However, at least we got a hurricane.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Three : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#600">Z - Sorry, but you were one pathetic storm. We all thought we would see Chantal from this, but nope.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - After over a month and a half of waiting for the next named storm to form, all we get is this forgettable failure. However, its still better than nothing.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Dorian : <font color="#000080">100%, <font color="#0C3">A- - I can safely say for sure that this is going this year. The Bahamas were ANNIHILATED by this storm, as well as the US and Canada. Gets an A- for defying predictions of it being a fail and became a category 5 hurricane, but at the same time damages limit the grade form going any higher.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Erin : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#900">F- - Basically a "pop up storm" during Dorian that did nothing but waste a name. Don't take the Eastern Pacifc's habits with you next time.

Overall season rating (tentative): <font color="#CF0">C  - Despite being crappy in the first part of the year, it managed to pull a 2018 and start a massive increase in activity. It can be near average by the end of the season. Future storm formation chances = Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE): Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  08:46, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * <font color="#000">Fernand : <font color="#000080">100% - May appear around peak season.
 * <font color="#000">Gabrielle : <font color="#000080">100% - Will form sometime around the peak of the season.
 * <font color="#000">Humberto : <font color="#000080">100% - We could possibly see this in late September.
 * <font color="#000">Imelda : <font color="#000000">91% - Can form by early October, as long as the uptick in activity actually happens.
 * <font color="#000">Jerry : <font color="#B40000">78% - Unless activity is doomed to be inactive the whole year, we will most likely see this.
 * <font color="#000">Karen : <font color="#E80000">63% - This is around where my certainty of these numbers begins to fall. We may see this or not depending on the basin's performance.
 * <font color="#000">Lorenzo : <font color="#FFC800">45% - This is probably where we will end this year, presuming that the season will have a near average September-October.
 * <font color="#000">Melissa : <font color="#00A000">32% - May come as a late season surprise.
 * <font color="#000">Nestor : <font color="#00A0A0">25% - Storm names from here are unlikely to be used. Unless we get an "explosion" in activity, this is unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Olga : <font color="#00D5D5">17% - Unfortunately, we may not go this far at this rate. Reaching up to 2018's levels of activity is very unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Pablo : <font color="#00FFFF">9% - I don't think we will get here this season.
 * <font color="#000">Rebekah : <font color="#00FFFF">4% - Very, very unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Sebastien : <font color="#00FFFF">1% - You will have to defy climatology to get here at this point.
 * <font color="#000">Tanya : <font color="#AFFFFF">0.5% - Again, you can't get here without defying climatology.
 * <font color="#000">Van, Wendy and beyond: <font color="#666">0% - If you think we will get to here you are crazy. Jk, but seriously, it is NOT likely at all to get this far into the season.

The shenanigans of A2.0: retirement predictions, storm grades, etc.
Retirement chances:
 * Andrea - 0% - Should be back in 2025.
 * Barry - 3% - Had some impacts, but honestly Barry is here to stay.
 * Chantal - 0% - Thanks for waking up the Atlantic, but will remain in the lists.
 * Dorian - 95% - The impacts in The Bahamas would be enough to warrant the retirement of this historic storm.
 * Erin - 0% - Just no.

Storm grades:

(Highest is A+++, lowest is Z)


 * Andrea - F - A preseason storm, and that's it. Epic fail though.
 * Barry - C - Had some impacts, but surprised me for reaching hurricane status.
 * Chantal - L - A sacrificial lamb, I guess. Took the L to pave the way for other storms.
 * Dorian - TBA - We'll wait and see.
 * Erin - Z - Very unremarkable, sorry.

Storm formation percentages:

(Some names include wild guesses on their intensities)


 * Fernand - 100% - Must form. Will likely peak as a TS. Might become Fail-nand. Might come from the AOI fron West Africa, might peak as a major, God forbid it becomes a landfalling one.
 * Gabrielle - 100% - Must form. Probably a TS, may hit land.
 * Humberto - 100% - Must form. Probably a fishspinner, most likely a TS.
 * Imelda - 95% - Most likely to form. Might be a major though. Hopefully a fishspinner.
 * Jerry - 90% - Most likely to form. Probably a major, may or may not affect land areas.
 * Karen - 80% - Most likely to form. Probably a major, might affect land.
 * Lorenzo - 70% - Most likely to form. Probably the final name, if not Melissa, Nestor or Olga. Category 1 or a strong TS, will stay at sea.
 * Melissa - 50% - Maybe yes, maybe no. Strong TS to minimal Category 1, may affect the U.S.
 * Nestor - 40% - Maybe yes, maybe no. Will likely peak as a TS if it forms.
 * Olga - 20% - Not really. However, if it forms, it might be a subtropical one.
 * Pablo - 10% - Not really. Possibly a subtropical storm or a TS if (and only if) used.
 * Rebekah - 1% - No. But there's still a chance. Would be a tropical storm at best.
 * Sebastien - 0.1% - Nah. Though I lowkey hope that this year would go all the way up to this name.
 * Tanya - 0% - Nah. I just don't see Tanya being used this year.
 * Van - 0% - Nah. Same with Tanya.
 * Wendy, Alpha and beyond - 0% - Nah. Atlantic needs to be on steroids in order for this name to be used this year. Won't happen at all.

''Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:32, August 28, 2019 (UTC). Last edited and updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:47, September 2, 2019 (UTC).''

Lee’s retirement predictions
Might as well start this now, with Dorian becoming more and more of a threat. I won’t be doing ratings this year.

Leeboy100 Hello! 21:59, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Andrea- 0%: It was nice that we were able to keep the pre-season streak going, but Andrea didn’t do anything, so nope.
 * Barry- 20%: Caused some damage and flooding, but I don’t see it going anywhere.
 * Chantal- 0%: Nope
 * Dorian- 100%: Tied with the Labor Day Hurricane for strongest landfalling hurricane in the Atlantic, decimating parts of the Bahamas in the process. Caused some impacts in the US and Atlantic Canada as well, and even if retirement isn’t requested by either country, the absolutely catastrophic damage done by the 185 mph monster in the Bahamas is more than enough to guarantee Dorian’s retirement in 2020. Replacement name picks: Dylan, Devon, Davin, Dax, Darrell, Dale, Doug, Derek (Lot of options to choose from with the letter D)
 * Erin- 0%: Not going anywhere.
 * Fernand- 1%: Damages in Mexico seem to be minor.
 * Gabrielle- TBA Currently active But not likely to get retired.

Atlantic Hurricane:
''Has been currently an inactive year thus far. However, this basin may in fact be starting to awaken from its deep slumber...'' TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:34, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Subtropical Storm Faildrea - Nice job that you formed *ahem* BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED AGAIN! Seriously, so many pre-season storms for me, almost TOO much. Plus, 40 mph for like 18 hours won't do it for me. (0%)
 * Hurricane Barry - Flooded areas inland under its ginormous blanket of rain, of course there's gonna be a retirement chance, albeit a small one. (20%)
 * Tropical Storm Chantal - ATL: How far north do you want to form? Chantal: Yes. Polar Bears: Well, we're screwed. (0%)
 * Hurricane Dorian - This one spells bad news for South Carolina. Forecast to strike the state as a C2! Stay tuned. (??%)
 * Tropical Fail Erin - Nothing. (0%)

PhTracking's Retirement Predictions and Grading
Welp, might as well make one of these grades and retirement predictions. Grades run from F- to A+.


 * Andrea - Cool pre-season storm that continued a 4 year streak, however, it only lasted 18 hours, and was also a 40 mph subtropical fail. Just another good name put to bad use. (<font color="#AAA">0% retirement, <font color="#F60">D )


 * Barry - A July hurricane, made landfall while peaking. Caused floods inland. Ugly with an exposed circulation, only lasted 6 hours as a hurricane. (<font color="#0A5">20% retirement, <font color="#CF0">C )


 * 03L - ...why? (<font color="#AAA">N/A retirement, <font color="#A00">F- )


 * Chantal - Weak storm, formed at a high latitude. Was a surprise, but a failure nonetheless. (<font color="#AAA">0% retirement, <font color="#f30">D- )


 * Dorian - Currently active and powerful 18 TC, with death tolls rising and damages already up to $7 billion. Retirement seems imminent from this storm. (TBD retirement, TBD)


 * Erin - An absolute failure of a storm. Exposed LLCC, was projected to form EARLIER than Dorian. The only thing Erin is important for is to boost the storm totals. (<font color="#AAA">0% retirement, <font color="#C00">F )


 * Fernand - Weak and short-lived storm in the gulf, at least not a 40 mph fail. Oh, and it actually does have quite a bit of convection, so that's a plus. (<font color="#30a">1% retirement, <font color="#ff0">C- )


 * Gabrielle - Weak tropical storm that briefly degenerated into a RL and is currently active. (TBD retirement, TBD)

ph tracking  22:33, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions
List 5 has never gone a single season without having at least 1 retired name since 1979, and this year is no exception...nonetheless, I, Ryan Grand, will make my retirement speech once again:


 * Andrea - 0% - Well hey, you gotta give her credit for giving the Atlantic a record 5 consecutive years with a pre-season storm, but that aside, it was just a minor rainshower or wave kickup to Bermuda.


 * Barry - 15% - Caused somewhat extensive damage and flooding in parts of the south, but it probably won't cut for retirement.


 * Chantal - 0% - Not a ChanCEtal (forgive the pun, couldn't resist).


 * Dorian - 100% - Although Dorian turned east before causing significant damage to the U.S, he caused up to 7 billion dollars in damage and killed at least 44 people in the Bahamas, making Dorian the costliest storm in the Bahamas's history and the deadliest hurricane to hit the archapelago in 93 years, since the 1926 Nassau hurricane, which killed over 250 people in the nation's capital. That will guarantee his retirement next year.

Ryan1000 22:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Erin - 0% - Like Chantal, no.
 * Fernand - 22% - Actually, scratch my previous remarks, Fernand actually caused extensive flooding in some areas of Tamaulipas, with a damage bill of 383 million USD and 1 death. Still, Mexico has snubbed worse storms than Fernand, and he will probably stay for 2025.
 * Gabrielle - 0% - Turned north too soon and probably won't affect land.

Ȝeſtikl's Retirement Chances and Grades
Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:36, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 0% > D > Didn't affect land.
 * Barry - 25% > B > Impacts not enough for retirement.
 * Three - N/A% > F > Short-lived 5 point TD that showered Florida and the Bahamas.
 * Chantal - 0% > D- > See Andrea.
 * Dorian - 95% > C+ > (active) I think this one is self-explanatory.
 * Erin - 0% > D- > See Andrea.
 * Fernand - 6% > D- > Impacted Mexico as a Tropical Storm.
 * Gabrielle - 0% > D > See Andrea.
 * Humberto -
 * Imelda -
 * Jerry -
 * Karen -
 * Lorenzo -
 * Melissa -

Male "D" names (For Dorian)
Since Dorian absolutely slaughtered the Abaco Islands as the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricane on record, it's safe to assume that....erhm, Dorian Gray is our first guaranteed retirement candidate. That being said, what are your thoughts on replacement names? Here are some, copied from Don in 2017 (which had no real chance to be retired anyways): Obviously Dylan should be our top pick, but Darren, Derek, Dante, Davion, Dexter, Diego, ect, are good too. A lot of good male "D" names are available. Ryan1000 12:05, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dylan
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Drake
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dexter
 * Drew
 * Darren
 * Daryl
 * Dominic
 * Draco
 * Dante
 * Devan
 * Davion
 * :') --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:25, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dylan would be really excited if his name was chosen lol. I don't know if they will chose Drake due to the famous singer/rapper of the same name. I suspect that the NHC will choose something like Damien, Dominic, Darren, Dale, or Derek for the 2025 list. Maybe Dylan is possible too but I have more of a feeling that those other names might be picked instead. I would love it if Dylan was the choice though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:45, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Delany, Darcy, Dionysis, Derry, Dagobert, Doug, Declan. Beatissima (talk) 01:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dominic, Darren, Desmond and Dale are okay, but my top 4 right now: Drew, Damien, Derek, and Dylan (my top pick). Dan would be a good pick too (though it sounds like a shortened version of EPac's Daniel). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:36, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * EPac has Douglas, but I went ahead and put Doug, anyway. I think there's a precedent for different forms of a name being used simultaneously, but I can't remember the specific examples. Beatissima (talk) 01:44, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

There are many examples of two names being on the Atlantic and EPac lists at the same time that are similar to each other, I mentioned this before with Matthew in 2016 (it was replaced with Martin itself which is a variation of the EPac's Marty on list 1). Also, David was retired after 1979 and replaced with Danny while Daniel was in the EPac at that same time and both names are still in use today, as well as 1999's Floyd being retired and replaced with Franklin while Frank was already in the EPac and both names are still in use today. So Doug and Dan are definitely possibilities, but Dylan is still my top pick. Ryan1000 02:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Another few suggestions I have are Donovan, Devin/Devon, and Desmond. T  G  2 0 1 9 13:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

If it would be The Bahamas that gets impacted the most, Dominic/Declan/Donovan/Dan/Dale are the best possible replacement names. If it would be the U.S., they might go for Diego/Derek/Dylan/Darren/Drew. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Strongly disagree with Anon 2.0 here. I think there is a theme per naming list every year. The names used this year have a very urban, diverse feel to them and the replacement names usually reflect that, even the ones picked by the US which always tend towards the old fashioned side in most cases. Here's my take on this dilemma based on what I think each country would go for should they request retirement:

Dante is a name commonly used among Black people as well as Dorian so I won't be surprised if that ends up being the replacement name, also given the urban feel to this naming list. More British-y sounding names like Declan (O'Donnelly) and Dominic (Raab) are possible if Bahamas is picking. Diversity also is key to this list as a whole so I highly doubt they would choose a name common among baby boomer, white Americans, unlike, say last year's list. There are mostly Gen X and Millennial names here. The mix is crucial. So I personally would say Dante is my first choice. Diego would be acceptable too and likely would only fit in this Atlantic list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Bahamas: Dante, Deshawn, Declan, Dominic
 * USA: Dylan, Derek, Darren, Diego


 * Well, I concur. Dante and Diego would sound good in this list, knowing that this is the most diverse of the six being used by NHC. (Though I'm still kinda wondering why did you say that you disagree with me when you put the very same names that I listed there, save for Drew for the U.S. and Dante/Dan/Dale/Donovan in the names that Bahamas would possibly propose as replacement/s for Dorian). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:13, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * because you didn't mention dante or diego. I actually see either of those two being used, dante especially if the bahamas is requesting retirement. Dante is common among both black and hispanic populations, bahamas is mostly black and it'll only fit in well with this diverse naming list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:52, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Considering the Bahamas will most likely make the case, Dante would be a likely choice from them. Diego and Dominic, or even Donovan are possibilities too, though I would still personally prefer Dylan. Ryan1000 22:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Personally I'd still prefer Dan (given the fact that NHC chose Martin which is quite similar to Marty), but at this point I can see Diego replacing it (a name which I actually put in my post; I edited it even before PeterPiper replied and disagreed with my comment: I put mine at 14:14 UTC of August 31, PeterPiper replied at 16:50 UTC of August 31). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:10, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Some more that haven't been mentioned:


 * Darius


 * Denzel


 * Darnell


 * Dax


 * Delmar
 * Denny

I particualrly like Dax and Denzel. --Whiplash (talk) 00:15, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Bad Replacement Names
Just for fun.

D: Dick, Dukey, Dilbert, Dobby, Dong, Danger. Beatissima (talk) 01:31, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Would be Donald for me. Not only because of the U.S. President, but also because of Don in list 3. But we'll never know... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * "Hurricane Dick is so big" ... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:41, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * My pick would be Dooley, after that guy from King of the Hill. Send Help Please  (talk) 09:40, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Donkey Kong. Beatissima (talk) 23:04, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Post-season Changes
First TCR of the season is up, for Andrea. Lasted for 18 hours before dissipating.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:57, August 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Added the table for reference. Doesn't appear like there were any notable changes to Andrea, besides the advisory times (advisories were operationally issued at 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC, but NHC just put it to 1800 UTC on the 20th, or 2 PM EDT) for convenience. Ryan1000 20:47, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Three is also out too, since NHC doesn't have as much work this month.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Pressure got nerfed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 20:31, August 21, 2019 (UTC)