Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future start
Coming in slightly more than one month :D.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Betting pools
Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC)

August
Has (officially) begun, but nothing is active as of now. Ryan1000 06:25, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

The NHC is now issuing experimental GTWO's which predict a tropical cyclone's formation probability in the next five days. Also, the Saharan Air Layer is very intense right now over the Atlantic. We probably will not get another tropical cyclone for another week or so. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:25, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, there's a dust storm over the Sahara right now and that will slow down Cape Verde activity for the next week or two. But this isn't any different from 2007 or 2010. We will have a lot of waves in the late weeks of August and September that could develop by then. Ryan1000 17:49, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

AOI.Near Lesser Antillies
Near 0% as of now, though some models are picking up on this in the long run. Could be something to watch. Ryan1000 13:21, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

This AOI is in unfavorable conditions. It might take several days for it to develop. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:24, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

All the models develop this or another aoi that develop in the southwestern caribbean.supposedly it will move into Nic/Hon border or it will move north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.Allanjeffs 18:48, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * It could become TS Erin in the Western Caribbean, but I doubt it'll do much anyways. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now 10%, for the next 2 and 5 days. Ryan1000 00:50, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

I'm thinking this MIGHT become Erin by the 12th or 13th if she can battle wind shear, then activity post-Erin will explode. We'll probably get Jerry by the end of the month. If I have to be honest, Erin might be another minimal tropical storm. We'll see the big ones after Fernand. (Gabrielle might become one, definitely Humberto because of sluggish activity and possibly Ingrid and Karen.) after all, the SAL has moved to Houston... Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 01:10, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

This AOI is still in unfavorable conditions. I doubt any major explosion will happen yet. Also, I think ending at Jerry for August is a little too much. I think we will end at Fernand or Gabrielle at month's end, similar to 2010 and 2003. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:14, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

I don't think this will do much, but it could become Erin in the Western Caribbean. Anyway, I think this month will stop at either Gabrielle or Humberto. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:54, August 8, 2013 (UTC) Agreed with Stevie on this one. I wouldn't underestimate the season yet. Jerry is only a possibility. We are definitely gonna see the great hum by the end of the month, at the very least. Just my opinion. 10% Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 16:00, August 8, 2013 (UTC) I have also changed my prediction of the big one. I used to think ingrid would be the bad one... But it has changed to Gabrielle or that humberto one. Sluggish activity, that's all. This month will en at about humberto now. Or if we are really lucky ingrid. (Note I'm typing this on an iPhone.) Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 16:10, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * "I" names are cursed; they've always seemed to have done something bad, at least since 2001, every original "I" name from then on out got retired barring Isaac from last year, which came so close. Then again, every season is different, although "I" names almost always seem to be at the core of the season these days. Ryan1000 21:01, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic is about to get into gear base on the GFS anter Ivo and Juliette the gfs is showing 5 storms in the Atlantic 3 of them near the cape verdes.Allanjeffs 05:07, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I've been watching a few waves near Cape Verde; some of them look prime to develop, but it'll just take some time for the dry air to get out of the way. Ryan1000 13:42, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * This AOI is off the TWO!  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:35, August 9, 2013 (UTC)

AoI: Western Gulf of Mexico
10%/10%. Not likely to become much, but it's worth pointing out. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:27, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * I don't think this will become anything. It's just another random AOI.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:02, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Ummmmm I think it will- by a few days. If it does then erin will be a weak ts. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 15:59, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, just another random AOI and it shouldn't develop at all. I'm more concerned about a few Cape Verde waves, but that's a different story for a different day. Ryan1000 16:10, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Frankly speaking I am getting sick and tired of no development thanks to sal dry air high wind shear etc. If there isn't any activity come last week of the month then it'll be hella inactive bust. Goddamn. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 19:28, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Just wait 3 to 5 days more and a real aoi will appear in the western Caribbean sea or gulf of Mexico.Allanjeffs 21:17, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

This is a completely random AOI. I do not expect any development at all from the system, especially since it is near Mexico. Also, Liz, there still is a little window left for 2013 to explode. 1950, 2010, and 2001 were all dud seasons at this point, but then exploded within the coming weeks. However, I will agree catching up to 1933 or 2005 is out of the question. Also, today (August 10) is climatologically the date for a season's first hurricane to form. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:35, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

And now down to a near 0% chance as it moves inland. The Atlantic is a dud season. It is August 11 (UTCwise), and we have not produced a single hurricane. Hopefully, we can see an explosion of activity in the coming week. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:47, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Ugh. I knew it. Weather channel said next week well have an explosion of activity as some funny thing from the pacific comes. Humberto will be the last storm of August. Goodbye active Atlantic hurricane season. We're finished. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 00:09, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, that Weather Channel (TWC) prediction has to come true, or else we will be stuck with a colossal dud season this year in terms of intensity. Look at how dead this season has been. Four storms is not bad for an Atlantic season at this time of the year, but if you look beyond the total storms, you will find how active we really are. For example, check out the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of 2013. It is 6.555. That is bad enough, but out of four storms, this means the ACE per storm is 1.64. That is nothing but pathetic for an Atlantic season. For comparison, 2011 had an ACE per storm of 6.64, 2007's was 4.8, and 1970's was 3.4. In addition, the pace of the storms this year is actually quite fast, but if we want to see a 1995, 1933, or 2005 type season, we are nowhere near their paces. 2005 already had nine tropical storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes at this point of the season. 1933 had five tropical storms and two hurricanes by now. 1995 had six tropical storms and three hurricanes. 2011 had five tropical storms at this point, with two more forming in the next four days. 2008 had five tropical storms, two hurricanes, and a major at this point. 1916 had five tropical storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes at this point. All these examples illustrate how fast 2013 is really progressing. Furthermore, what the storms have done illustrate the dearth of activity. None of the season's four storms have been in any way memorable. Dorian may have delayed his inevitable death by surprising us, but he was otherwise the epic fail of the epic fails. Chantal looked promising to be a bad storm for Hispaniola, but she just died of a wind shear heart attack before she did anything. Barry was a tropical storm that flooded up Central America and Mexico, but he did not kill many people and also could not punch up damage totals. Andrea caused hype in many regions, but she was not any worse than Barry. I know we can not judge June or July activity, but it is becoming clear 2013 will be a re-2011 intensitywise, unless it pulls a 2001 at the last minute. Also, I think CSU overpredicted the number of storms forming this year. Eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes seems like a good estimate, but 18 storms? We are going to have to go insane, and I mean 2010 insane, to reach that number. If we are going to have a memorable season this year, the Atlantic needs to pick up the pace, and TWC better be correct.

Also, that "funny thing" from the Pacific is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), by the way.

Regarding this AOI, it will just slam into Mexico and die.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:46, August 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Four named storms isn't that bad for this time of year to be honest. 2010 didn't get to Danielle until August 21 and that year still got to be a very active season, with 19 storms, 12 canes, and 5 majors. We got 4 storms before August this year, which is pretty darn impressive for an Atlantic season (last year had 4 before July, an all-time record, but nothing after that until Ernesto in August), and last year got to 19 named storms as well. We just need to have 5 named storms in each of August, September, and October and voila, yet another season with 19 named storms. We could also pull a 2010-ish September (with 8 named storms) and possibly even run the table. This season is still well ahead of schedule, and there are a few Cape Verde waves right now that could become our next few storms in a week or so. 2013 is well above-normal as of now and we very well still have the potential to go the way of the past few seasons and tie for the 3rd most active year ever this season. Ryan1000 02:33, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * This AOI has slammed into Mexico. Oh well, it is dead. Liz is probably really annoyed this failed, but if TWC's activity upsurge prediction comes true, we could easily become active in the blink of an eye starting next week. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:23, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Foop. I knew it. Mjo sucks. Well get erin next week then... From gabby onwards it'll be active again... (Aug 25ish) Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 13:36, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Caribbean
A new AOI has popped up in the Caribbean. This looks to become Erin not too long from now. The Africa wave should be Fernand. ST✪12 20:16, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Yes this will probably be td 5 or Erin depends on how much it strength and that wave to leave Africa,Fernand.Allanjeffs 20:51, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

It currently has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance of formation in the next five days. Any development of this AOI will be very gradual in pace. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:14, August 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * 1) SWAGGALICIOUS. I AM SO PROUD OF ERIN AND FERNAND :D Should become Erin by the 16th, wave should become Fernand by the 20th. Gabby might come by the 24th, Humberto by the 28th.  Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 22:08, August 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, Liz. The effects of the SAL are over. This AOI is now at a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. The Atlantic is on the verge of becoming as insane as 1995, 2005, and 2010 all were. Conditions are getting more conductive for tropical cyclone development. Also, today (August 13) is climatologically the date for an Atlantic season's third storm to develop. We are currently one tropical storm above that number, but we are three days behind the normal date of a season's first hurricane. Then again, 2010 and 1969 both only had one hurricane at this point, Alex and Blanche, respectively, and both seasons ended with  12 hurricanes. I think we will get at least seven hurricanes this year. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:07, August 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, this season is about to kick into gear real soon. The Saharan Air Layer won't hold up all of the waves coming into the Atlantic over the next several days. A few models are expecting an explosion of storms in the next week, and given the current conditions, I wouldn't be surprised if that happens. With regards to this AOI, this should become a TS in the GoM or Westernmost Caribbean, but not much stronger than that. It has an outside chance of becoming a hurricane, but I seriously doubt that will happen. Ryan1000 01:16, August 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * This system now has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a 30% chance in the next five days. Although conditions will support marginal development in the Caribbean Sea, once the AOI hits the Gulf of Mexico, conditions will get less supportive. Now I doubt Erin will remain strong, and add it will just add on to our parade of tropical storms. Also, this could be the first Erin to become an epic fail. 1989's Erin is not an epic fail because it attained hurricane intensity. 1995's Erin is a win for passing over Disneyland. 2001's Erin is a win because it became a major. 2007's Erin is a win for reintensifying hundreds of miles inland. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:31, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Still at 30% for the next 2 and 5 days. Ryan1000 09:43, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

Not anymore! An area of low pressure could be forming from this AOI. According to the latest NHC GTWO, it now has a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next two days and a 60% chance in the next five days. As it trekks towards the Yucatan Peninsula, additional development is possible. A good analouge for this storm, in my opinion, would be 2007's Tropical Storm Erin. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:33, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Per Allan's post below, this AOI is invested. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:51, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * 60% for the next 5 days, I think this'll become Fernand, but if NHC recon finds a close circulation tomorrow it'll be Erin first. Ryan1000 17:15, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 60% chance for the next 48 hours and could be tropical depression before the plane arrives,just like with Sandy.Allanjeffs 17:38, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * 70% for the next 5 days, and 80% for the Cape Verde disturbance. Close race, not sure who'll be named first at this point. Ryan1000 17:46, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like the invest is gaining some vorticity to the north.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:12, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Forecast for this one is pretty straightforward according to most of the models. It'll probrably turn north to Louisiana like Cindy '05, but probrably won't end up being too harsh for them. Ryan1000 20:22, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * As Invest 92L nears the Yucatan, its chances for tropical cyclone formation have been upped to 70% and 80% for the next 48 and 120 hours, respectively. It could become a tropical depression, but by Thursday, the GOM should hinder much development. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * I have the feeling it'll just be a TS and nothing more as it moves towards Louisiana/Texas in the next few days. Ryan1000 01:32, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 50%, and now more likely to move into Mexico. Ryan1000 13:29, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * I still think this will become Fernand, but now that it is more likely to crash into Mexico, it might be a big 70% bust.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:54, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * The last thing I'd like to see is a 70% invest bust. A few did in the EPac last year, but the ATL hasn't had a 70% invest bust in a while. Ryan1000 17:09, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

This invest remains at a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation. However, if it turns to the north, bye-bye invest! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:47, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * I will honestly take a 70% bust over yet another weak little TS. What Andrew said in Erin's section was right; the Atlantic has been largely boring lately. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:28, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dr Masters,believe this one will be Fernand.I hope it is because I am waiting for the monster over Africa to become Gabrielle sounds more threatening.Allanjeffs 14:26, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

The invest's chance of tropical cyclone formation remains at 50% and 60% for the next two and five days, respectively. Allan, I would rather have this invest be a bust for two reasons: 1.) Another pathetic fail is not what we need here, and 2.) The 'F' storm on this list is rather lucky intensitywise. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:05, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Floyd was lucky, too: out of the four times it was used before it was retired, it reached hurricane strength on all four occasions, becoming a major on two (a Category 3 in 1981 and the infamous Category 4 1999 storm). When Floyd was retired in the spring of 2000, Franklin was chosen to replace it. Franklin bucked the trend, peaking just short of hurricane status in 2005 and failing miserably in 2011. Fernand could be a similar combo breaker, and will be pretty much doomed to be one if this invest develops. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:44, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * This won't be more than TS Erin of 2007 if it does develop. Ryan1000 20:52, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Its done imo.look at the wave of Africa most models believe it will reach major hurricane status.16:47, August 17, 2013 (UTC)Allanjeffs

Ugh not again. GOD WHEN ARE WE GONNA SEE MORE STORMS I'd prefer if the African wave was called Gabrielle. I just want to see a nice number of storms otherwise we will see 2009 again. I HATE THIS!!!!!! -_- if we don't see a good number of storms were finished. I give up already. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 17:19, August 17, 2013 (UTC)

Yep, its chances of formation are done. It is down to a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation. So much for this becoming anything. And Liz, we are actually two weeks ahead of climatology in terms of named storms. Many seasons were that were dud seasons at this point (1949, 1984, 2001, and 2010) later exploded into unforgettable ones. I would rather have this thing die. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:36, August 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * 10%, what a fail. First 70% I've seen bust in a while. Ryan1000 00:31, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * 0%. Looks like this busted, thankfully. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 06:19, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Goodbye, 92L! It is off the TWO (Liz is going to be irritated) . And as for me, I think this is the first time a 70% fail was not a disappointment. We need to pull a 1967, 2001, or 2010 soon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:58, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like this invest really busted. I hope that the African wave will become Fernand, and that we pull a 2010 soon so we can have a large number of storms to end the year with.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:53, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Exiting Africa
THANK YOU ERIN!

Here we go!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT SUN AUG 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$ FORECASTER STEWART Off storm2k. Not on the two but will come soon. YEEESSSSSS ERINNNNN : D Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 23:37, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

The inactivity period is coming to an end. By August 15, I expect a tropical depression from this system. Guys, get prepared for a 1995, 2005, or 2010 type explosion. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:02, August 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have a bad feeling about this... Ryan1000 00:33, August 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Why is this the Aoi near Africa this is the Aoi supposedly near the gulf and the one I was talking about that has a chance of becoming Erin by the end of the week.The wave that is going to leave Africa in 3 days is supposedly Fernand.Allanjeffs 03:48, August 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this might become Erin. After that, we could see Fernand as soon as August 20. The Atlantic is about to explode in the coming weeks!  Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:12, August 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * This AOI is on the TWO! It has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next five days. Conditions will be favorable for some development before it moves into a stable enviornment. Also, I will point out the 'F' letter on this list is a very luckily cursed name. Of all the four occasions this letter has been used, the 'F' storm (Felix) attained hurricane intensity, and three of those four hurricanes became majors. 1989's Felix was a Category 1 that stayed at sea and was pretty much a fail. However, 1995's Felix was a monster Category 4 that threatened huge portions of the U.S. East Coast. Moreover, 2001's Felix was a Category 3 that was like Erin '01 or Ophelia '11, starts off weak, dies, comes back to life, and becomes a major. Furthermore, 2007's Felix exploded to a Category 5, trashed Nicaragua, and broke a seasonal record - only season to have multiple Category 5 landfalls. Also, coincidentally, Felix '95 formed the same way. Our 'F' storm should be just as impressive as 2007's or 1995's 'F' was.  Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:31, August 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Expect this to become Erin or Fernand,I believe Fernand as the area near Africa would probably attain ts status first.Allanjeffs 18:57, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Sorry the header ended up that way Allan. This page format pisses me off sometimes. Anyways, I expect both this and the AOI in the Caribbean to develop into Erin and Fernand. Not sure if it'll be in that order though. I think the Caribbean disturbance will develop first, but I don't know how this one will evolve in the coming days. Ryan1000 19:30, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Ok Ryan no prob,Btw we have 93L but I don`t want to make the header because I don`t want to have the same problems as before.Allanjeffs 03:19, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
I did it,and its now 40% expect this to become Erin before the one in the Caribbean,The atlantic has just explode.Allanjeffs 05:17, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like this one's in pretty favorable conditions, it might become Erin first, but I expect the Caribbean disturbance to develop too. The Atlantic is about to take off. This is at 50% for the next 5 days. Ryan1000 09:43, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 60% might become Erin pretty soon.92L is up to 50% but I don`t see the header of the storm.Allanjeffs 12:36, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

It's kind of a race to see which one is to become Erin first. The second place winner gets Fernand. I think the Caribbean invest will become Erin first due to the more favorable conditions. The wave off Africa should be Fernand, our first hurricane of the season potentially. ST✪12 14:12, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

Actually I believe the wave near Africa will be Erin is strengthening prettty fast,and the AOI in the caribbean is also getting better organize.if the wave develops this afternoon into a td it might steal the name Erin but tomorrow afternoon the nhc is flying into the caribbean system so it might be name first too.Allanjeffs 14:36, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

This is an unsual situation. This also happened between Isidore and Josephine in 2002. Both storms formed as depressions at almost the same time on September 17, and actually became tropical storms at the same time. In the end, the system closer to land was named Isidore and the storm further away from land was named Josephine. I want the African wave to become Fernand so it can continue the 'F' hurricane curse on this naming list, as I stated above. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:39, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

This looks like a race to see which one will become Erin first. Anyway, I think that the Caribbean wave will be Erin, and the African wave will become Fernand soon after. I got a slightly bad feeling about the Caribbean wave,  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:48, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Like "I" names, every original "F" name on the naming list has been retired except those of last year's naming list (Florence and Isaac). This one has gotten a lot better organized. Now I'm thinking this will become Erin before the Caribbean wave becomes Fernand, but if NHC recon finds a closed low-level circulation in the Caribbean wave tomorrow it'll be Erin first whether we like it or not. Ryan1000 17:15, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 70% and might become a td later today.Allanjeffs 17:37, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * At this point I'm not really sure which will be named or numbered first, they're both really well organized and they probrably will become TD's or TS's by tomorrow, if not later today. Ryan1000 17:46, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

Organization has improved, and this invest has a 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Assuming both invests are classified at the same time, I think this wave would be numbered Tropical Depression Six. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:57, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one could be scary in the long run, but it depends on how strong it gets. Some models take it due west-northwest and eventually recurving out to sea, others take it to the Antillies and possibly eventually the United States. It all depends on how strong this one gets. Ryan1000 20:22, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ascat caught a tight circulation should be upgrade to td 5 at 8pm or 11pm.No doubt about it.Allanjeffs 21:30, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

Now Invest 93L has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone at all. The Cape Verde Islands are getting a nice day from this. Also, even if this invest becomes a tropical depression before 92L, it does not gurantee it will become a tropical storm before 92L, per what happened between Ingrid and Humberto in 2007. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * This should be stronger than 92L, but I'm not sure if it will affect land as of yet. Ryan1000 01:32, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five
TD 5 according to ATCF. 30kts, 1008mb. Welcome back the Atlantic basin. Yqt1001 (talk) 01:56, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Nothing's up on the NHC website yet, but the Atlantic is finally coming back to life after going three weeks without any new activity. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:36, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

And here we go! The NHC has confirmed Tropical Depression Five's cyclogenesis! Currently, it is packing winds of 30 knots, and its pressure is at 1008 mbar. Tropical storm warnings are up for the Cape Verde islands of Maio, Santiago, Fogo, and Brava. We should see a tropical storm later today (UTCwise) according to the NHC. Right now, the Cape Verdes are dealing with near gale-force winds, tropical storm gusts, and potentially two to four inches of rain. This should not be a Fran (1984) for them at all. Tropical Depression Five currently is expected to hit 55 knots, and there is a 20% chance according to the NHC Wind Probability outlook it will become a hurricane. I expect this depression to be no more than a re-Beryl (1982) or Florence (2012). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:48, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Should be Erin in the next couple of hours.Allanjeffs 03:27, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erin
The fifth tropical storm in the Atlantic is christen.Allanjeffs 12:15, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

OOO ZOMBIE ATTACK!! (Lol, just kidding.) Erin (YAHOOOOO) is expected to stay at tropical storm intensity, affect Africa and dissipate Tuesday. WOOOOOOOOO  Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 12:23, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Say hello to Erin! Right now, winds of 35 knots and a pressure of 1006 mbar is packing in the storm. The Cape Verde Islands I listed above that were in a tropical storm warning remain so, and tropical storm conditions should begin in the next 12 hours. Strong winds and rainfall of two to four inches are both expected for most of the Verdes. Regarding its forecast track, the NHC expects Erin to gradually slow down and move away from the Cape Verde archipelago. Winds are expected to hit 55 knots before it dissipates. Erin still has a 20 percent chance of becoming a hurricane, but I doubt it will anymore. Sorry guys, but it looks like 2013 is starting off the way 2011, 2006, and 2002 all did - weak, pathetic tropical storms that barely do anything. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:20, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * The NHC forecast doesn't kill Erin by Tuesday, they just keep it a weak TS through the forecast period, but they don't kill it. It should pass near or right over the northernmost Lesser Antillies late next week. After that it might be a possible threat to the U.S. East Coast. Erin isn't poised to be any sort of failure as of yet. Ryan1000 13:29, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erin is here! The Cape Verdes should take a slight beating from this storm, after that it could threaten the Lesser Antilles and even the U.S. East Coast. Things are looking scary in the long run, so I wouldn't call this a fail just yet. I think she might become a hurricane, or maybe a strong TS.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:50, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

As of Advisory 3, Erin has not changed in intensity, but warnings have been discontinued for the Cape Verdes. And I do not think Erin will become strong. The NHC, HWRF, and almost every global model expect for SHIPS and LGEM kill it in the next 120 hours because there is a huge pocket of dry enviornment up ahead of the system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:06, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * The GFS and the Euro, both our most reliable models, kill it in 5 days, but the NHC is being a little more generous than that, and they think it'll manage to hold on to weak TS status by then. But, it might also just become another storm like Dorian, eating away at the SAL for future waves in the season. Ryan1000 15:22, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Ok then... I think Erin might become just a little TS. Might hit the Caribbean. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! Pinkie pie signature and infobox gif.gif 20:31, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

And as of Advisory 4, Erin remains the same intensity. There are no land hazards from the system. It still has a 20 percent chance of becoming a hurricane. And Liz, Erin might not even survive into the Caribbean. The environment will get too hostile for significant development in the next few days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:37, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah Erin's starting to look like she'll pull a Dorian and not do much. I doubt this'll become much at all if it can't make it past the dry air in front of it. Ryan1000 22:54, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

What -.- I'm mean......WHAT. I've been waiting for our first hurricane for a while now. I was really thinking Erin would be our first hurricane, possibly even our first major hurricane. But, nope. Dorian's younger sister. Come on Atlantic! ST✪12 01:27, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

And Advisory 5 has come. Erin's pressure has risen to 1007 mbar, but its winds remain the same. Its chance of becoming a hurricane has fallen to 14 percent, so I doubt a hurricane from Erin. Also, Otto, 2001 did not get its first hurricane (coincidentally named Erin) until September 9, and that year ended with nine. We still have a slight window to get a large number of hurricanes, but the dry air and SAL are making that seem doubtful for now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:48, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Advisory 6 comes, and Erin is still the same intensity. Gale-force winds extend 35 miles from the center. It's chance to become a hurricane is now only nine percent. Because every major model except GFS kills it within 120 hours, it looks like Erin will indeed be an addition to our string of weak tropical storms. I don't get it, the Atlantic has been so boring since the start of 2011. We've had some monsters like Sandy, Irene, Isaac, and Lee, and some cool storms like Ophelia, Michael, and Nadine, but I don't feel the fun anymore. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:24, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ugggggggggggh. Ugggggggggggggh. UGGGGGGGGGGGH. Here comes Dorian II. Peh. Flop. Pah. Belch. Well, don't lose hope yet, because there is a MONSTER heading our way off the coast from Africa that will become our first hurricane (Gabby) because there is a forming Fernand already. (not joking, it's true, according to GFS and CMC (not Cutie Mark Crusaders) models.) After Fernand, then we'll see 2-3 big scary monsters/superdupercool storms which are at least Cat 2 in a row (well, one is guaranteed so far.) Like the 1995 Conga line (H-L storms LITERALLY followed each other in August 1995) and the 2004 simultaneous landfalls. NHC expects Flopserin to dissipate around Tuesday.  Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! Pinkie pie signature and infobox gif.gif 12:43, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to a 30-knot tropical depression per ATCF. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that Erin peaked when it was first named. What a waste of a name. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:31, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * I agree that she peak when she was name,but if it deserves a name yes it does.with Erin likely not becoming a hurricane it brings the total for the 5 first names storm to fail to reach hurricane status and if 92L strength into Fernand that would be six.Allanjeffs 14:29, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Like 2011 where arlene to Harvey were all tropical storms lol after fernand ere come the monsters!!! Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 14:38, August 16, 2013 (UTC) PATHETIC. ERIN NOW A TD. THE WORST FAILS OF ALL FAILS. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 14:44, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Erin
Official per NHC. 30 kt, 1008 mbar. Sigh, I really wanted the name Erin to go to a respectably strong storm. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:46, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Dude, Erin is one of the biggest epic failures I've seen. This storm reminds me of Joyce from last year. Well, say bye to Flop-erin, an absolutely pathetic storm that (evil grin) stole and hijacked a name off the list. This evil storm is #1 on the Hurricane Hall of Fail,  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:10, August 16, 2013 (UTC) Well she certainly didn't have the stamina. If she was in the iaafs in Moscow then she'd definitely come last. better wait for fernand and two mega monsters as what the models are predicting. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 17:03, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

GRRR! Why can't Erin and Dorian make it through the same part of the Atlantic?! This is what Florence and Joyce did last year in this part of the ocean last year, Franklin and Gert near Bermuda in 2011, Fiona and Colin near Bermuda in 2010, Bonnie and TD 5 in the GOM in 2010, and Ana and Erika in the Caribbean in 2009. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:42, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * We are the first hurricane season in two years now to have the first five storms be weakling TS's. Erin should die soon enough... Ryan1000 20:52, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erin is back up to ts status,I imagine it is because a ship report 40knots winds and for the burst of convection over the center.She is not dead yet.AL, 05, 2013081700,, BEST, 0, 182N, 340W, 35, 1006, TSAllanjeffs 00:50, August 17, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erin (2nd time)
Now confirmed by NHC. They still kill it in 5 days or so though. Ryan1000 02:47, August 17, 2013

Tropical Depression Erin (2nd time)
...and it's downgraded again. 30 kt/1008 mbar. Should die soon enough. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:25, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'm getting bored of all these weakling storms...Erin was the biggest flop I've seen since Joyce in 2012. Ryan1000 07:57, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, Ryan! The Atlantic is acting like an El Nino right now. The SAL still is so thick. I hope the Africa AOI can do better. And in reply to Steven's post above, I think there are several other storms that rank above Erin on the Hurricane Hall of Fail. At least Erin brought some rain to Cape Verde. In my humble opinion, Joyce '12, Gaston '10, Ingrid, Jerry '07, and Melissa all failed more than Erin did. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic is boring me right now, and this storm was yet another fail. And, I think that storms like Joyce 2012, Jose 2011, Gaston 2010, Melissa 2007, and Ingrid 2007 rank higher on the Hurricane Hall of Fail than Erin.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:00, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Yawn. Bye ingrin. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 15:10, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Sigh...hopefully 94L becomes something worth watching. Ryan1000 18:20, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin
Believe it or not, Erin is the second-longest-lasting storm of the season so far, behind Dorian. At least Erin had that going for it. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:05, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * The other three storms (Andrea-Chantal) were too short-lived for me to recognize that as notable. It's down and out. What a fail... Ryan1000 21:20, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree. Erin, aside from its brief Cape Verde impacts, was a fail. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:41, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Another fail that bite the dust yeahhhhh :D ends sarcasm lol XD.Fernand better be epic in terms of intensity.Allanjeffs 21:45, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Hey, I'm not saying it wasn't a fail; it's the weakest storm of the season so far. Just trying to be (somewhat) optimistic. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:06, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Eh, sorry Dylan, I wish this could've been something worth watching too, but it wasn't...oh well. Guess it's up to 94L to do something. Ryan1000 02:35, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * No apology necessary! I didn't take any offense at all :) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:55, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Off of Africa
Currently just behind Erin. GFS shows this developing in a few days and becoming a respectably strong hurricane in a week or so. Problem with this, not only is it far out, it's also going to remain weak until it reaches the western Atlantic, so this may bring trouble to land areas down the road. For now though, no mention on the TWO. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:31, August 16, 2013 (UTC) Should become Gabrielle but... Wait, what's that big fat clump RIGHT BEHIND future Gabrielle? The next humberto? Oh GOD. These two are gonna be mega monsters. 😱😈 Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 18:26, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have doubts it will do much, given the environment Erin's going through, I can't see any wave just behind it doing any better for now. The Saharan Air Layer is still awfully strong. Ryan1000 20:52, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

When is the next wave coming THIS IS PINKAMENA  15:28, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, I have some very bad news. There are no disturbances in the Atlantic at all. Furthermore, none of the computer models are predicting any activity for the next seven days. For Christ's sake, this is the end of August, and the Atlantic is acting no different than it did in January! Even 2009 and 2010 had better activity than this right now!!! I can't believe CSU ever said we'd have above average activity. Eighteen tropical storms was an overestimate. Sixteen tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes is my forecast. I'm sorry, but a 2010 or 2005 explosion isn't happening. Liz, I hate to break it to you, but I don't think we'll make it to even Rebekah this year. Excluding 2005 and 2010 activity, at the rate we are going, Pablo will be the end. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:46, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Pablo? Pablo? Hmmm 1983 here we come... Fernand might not even from until October, and well only get up to something stupid like humberto which will form in December THIS IS PINKAMENA  18:01, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

I doubt we will make it through September without any storm activity at all. Even dud seasons have had at least one storm form during that month. For instance, despite a grand total of seven storms (SS One, Andrew, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, and Frances), six of which were named, in the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season, four tropical storms (Bonnie-Earl) formed during September, two of which (Bonnie and Charley) became hurricanes and three of which (Bonnie, Charley, and Danielle) simultaneously existed. Also, the 1982 Atlantic hurricane season had only six total storms in the entire season (Alberto, SS Two, Beryl, Chris, Debby, and Ernesto), five of which were named, but four of the six storms (Beryl-Ernesto) existed during some portion of September. In addition, it seems pathetic to only hit the 'H' name, but in reality, during the 1970s, only 1971 and 1978 made it beyond the 'H' name. I still believe we have a small chance left to explode, but I think a re-2005, 2004, 1933, 2008, 1950, 2010, 1995, 2012, 2011, or 1969 is now out of the question. At most, we should have 2003 or 1936 activity. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:55, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Now invest expect this one to become Fernand in the next couple of days.Allanjeffs 07:32, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * NHC says conditions are only marginally favorable for development. It might not even last more than 4 or 5 days until it dies. Hopefully it becomes something worth watching for once... Ryan1000 07:57, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Actually models are showing a major with these things and conditions are marginally conductive for the next couple of days but they are going to extremely favorable next.Allanjeffs 11:53, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * The NHC has put this invest on the TWO. It has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 30% chance in the next five days. If I were to forecast this system, I would predict a 65 knot category 1 hurricane from it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:55, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * I really hope we do get something big out of this. I really do. The weakling tropical storm streak has gone on long enough. Even so, if it explodes in the Central Atlantic, it'll be more likely to get picked up by the Bermuda High and eventually recurved out to sea. I love those types of storms. EPac is also picking up steam, with an AOI with a 10% chance of developing in 2 days but a 70% chance for 5 days. Ryan1000 14:45, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yep, I also hope that we see something big out of this. I'm tired of all these weaklings, and wish we can get a hurricane already. I also hope this recurves out to sea, cause I don't want a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S like my old prediction here.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:06, August 18, 2013

HEHE INGRIN it's erin and ingrid two fail storms combined together lol. BUT WHEN ARE GONNA GET A COOL HURRICANE?!????? I want fernand Gabrielle now!!! NOOOOOOOW Oh and is humbretto coming too?!? Well probably from Africa fernand should be a cat 1 bc of the stupid dusty air layer Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 18:31, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Actually, according to NHC and most of the reliable models, the Saharan Air Layer should keep this one in check for a while. It might not develop until it reaches the Caribbean Islands. That's worrisome, especially knowing the Caribbean has crystal clear conditions for development. Ryan1000 19:36, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

YAAAAAAAWWWWWWWNNNN time to go to bed then were not gonna get any good storms till September yaaaaawwwwnnn Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 19:57, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

This invest still has a 10% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours, but for the next five days, its chances have fallen to 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, August 19, 2013 (UTC) I give up. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 00:32, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Gone from NHC. Facinating. -.- Ryan1000 12:30, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Mother of Celestia... -_- Here comes 2009 -_-  Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! Pinkie pie signature and infobox gif.gif 13:17, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

-.- The Atlantic is really boring the crap out of me right now. If we don't get Fernand by August 25 or a hurricane before the end of this month, or if we don't have a 2010-style explosion, then I will just give up on the Atlantic. Once I give up on the Atlantic, I'll stop posting on this forum very often and will instead post on the East Pacific and West Pacific forums, at least until we explode or a major hurricane threatens the U.S. I'm tired of all these weak storms. If we continue at current pace, this season might only end at Lorenzo, Melissa, or Nestor. But still, the peak of the season is yet to come. We could still have a major hurricane threatening the U.S., or a big explosion of activity. Stay tuned, and beware the first storm of September. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:06, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

I agree, Steven. The Atlantic is acting like an El Nino because of the SAL. And I'd actually rather end with 2007 or 2001 activity than 2004, 2010, or 2011 activity. And I would also like to mention a phrase Eric LOVES to say that Steven posted above - BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER!!! This time of year is a "death row" zone for Atlantic hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:20, August 19, 2013 (UTC) BUT I WANT SEBASTIAN AND VAN WAAAAAA I want August storms so that we can get Sebastian quicker lol Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 16:30, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * If we can make it to Rebekah, I'll be satisfied. After Roxanne was retired following the 1995 season, Rebekah was chosen to replace it, but 2001 and 2007 both fell not far short of the 'R' storm, ending with Olga. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:59, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * There's a lot of shear in that part of the ATL right now, which is rather surprising for this time of year. 94L got shredded alive and unless that shear settles down, we might not get much at all for the rest of August. Ryan1000 21:03, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here we go... -_- Pinkamena_ii.png THIS IS PINKAMENA Pinkamena.png 21:33, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

'I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL FERNAND!!!' Gone back up to 10%. THIS IS PINKAMENA 18:02, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

AOI.Off Florida
We have a new invest at 10% in the eastern GOM which could become Fernand. Things should start ramping up after the good ol' weekend. WOOOO  DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. I live for the applause, applause, applause, I live for the applause plause live for the applause plause. THIS IS PINKAMENA 18:09, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not an invest yet, and I have doubts it will develop. Also be serious when making the headers. Ryan1000 19:10, August 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * This is just another random AOI. It will probably not become anything! Sorry, but we might have to wait until September to see Fernand, but I hope Fernand can form before the end of the month. Gosh, the Atlantic has been so boring! Steven09876 T 19:56, August 22, 2013 (UTC)

I agree with Ryan and Steven. This AOI might not even become a tropical depression. Also, to give an idea of our hurricane drought, we are now the first season since 2006 to not have a hurricane by now and the first since 2001 this happened in a La Niña. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:00, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * This was the time of year 2010 started to explode, but this year is quite different. The SAL is unusually powerful for this time of year and the TUTT north of the Caribbean has also been stronger than usual. We could still ramp up in September, but conditions would have to change dramatically if we want to get an active season. Ryan1000 21:43, August 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Gee Ryan, you're making me wonder if we'll have any hurricanes at all this season! As far as I am aware, the last Atlantic season to have no recorded hurricanes was 1914, which only had one known storm. Hopefully we'll get to Jerry and Karen; personally I'd like them to be strong storms, but if only one can accomplish that feat, then let it be Karen. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, August 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * The AOI's chances remain unchanged since 1800 UTC. Dylan, we could still get a handful of hurricanes. 1967 was completely dead at this point, but then exploded in September with four hurricanes, three of which simultaneously existed, and then got six altogether. 2001 also had no hurricanes at this point, but also got four September hurricanes and ended horrendously with Iris and Michelle. I believe we will get 7 hurricanes. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:32, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dylan, the lack of hurricanes that we've had thus far is actually making things worse for the heart of the season. Since hurricanes usually leave cool water behind them in their wake, and we haven't had any hurricanes thus far, the SST's in the Caribbean and GOM will just keep getting warmer and warmer and when a descent tropical wave moves into those warm waters with low shear and a moist environment, it'll bomb out. Due to the SAL, we're not likely to get any significant development until late next week. Once the next few tropical waves banish the rest of the SAL, we could get a freight train of storms starting around the 29th of August. This season has prime conditions to be very active and produce lots of strong hurricanes in the heart of the Atlantic, Caribbean, and GOM, but the only reason it hasn't done so yet is because the Saharan Air Layer managed to keep the African waves at bay so far. Once the SAL dies down the Atlantic will just take off. This wave probrably won't develop, though it has a very slight chance of doing so before it moves into Louisiana or Texas sometime tomorrow or the day after. Ryan1000 13:38, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's up to 20%! I still don't think this will become anything before crashing into Louisiana during the next day or two. Steven09876 T 18:17, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

unless this pulls a humberto lol THIS IS PINKAMENA  18:32, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, I doubt this AOI will do what Humberto did. Although it is fairly small, as Humberto was, it has no well-defined core comvection in it right now, which aided Humberto's explosion. I am not saying the AOI will not randomly become a hurricane out of the blue, but it seems rather doubtful right now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:24, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

And...this AOI's chances have plummeted to 10% for both the next two and five days. Along with the Yucatan AOI, I think either the SAL or land should consume this system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:41, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now it's near 0%. Should die off anytime now. Ryan1000 13:10, August 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Meh. This AOI is a fail. I hope Fernand will come soon... Steven09876 T 15:42, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

This aol just said 'I AM THE GREAT AND POWERFUL FERNAND AND I WILL NEER TAKE OFF THE TROPICAL AMULET!' Gone back up to 10% THIS IS PINKAMENA  18:03, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

I still doubt any development. It is too close to land and should slam into Texas in a couple of days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:22, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

And now the AOI has fallen to a near 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation for both the next two and five days. With no surface circulation, this AOI should be dead anytime soon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:05, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

And off the TWO it goes! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:47, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Yucatan Peninsula
A broad tropical wave has recently gotten a spot on the National Hurricane Center's tropical weather outlook today... with a low, 10% chance of formation on both the 48-hour outlook and the experimental 5-day outlook. The wave axis is north/south from Progreso to El Salvador, though as expected most of the convective activity throughout today has been over open waters. Shear is light in the region, though I haven't seen much models targeting this system. I think the wave will most likely propagate into the Bay of Campeche as it has been tracking westward for the past several days. Expect a lot of rainfall in adjacent regions. System is currently not labeled under the NHC's HS3 program.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:46, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

I do not think this AOI will become tropical. It is extremely disorganized, and it is about to slam into the Yucatan. Also, the SAL is still pretty strong, so I am placing my money on this system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:40, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
The SAL won't stay powerful forever. As for this system, it has a very slight chance of becoming a TS if it remains offshore enough, but it should only pass into the southernmost BoC, with very little time over water. Ryan1000 13:10, August 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't think this will become Fernand. It's just too close to land and too disorganized and stuff. Steven09876 T 15:46, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

It has been upgrade to invest 95L and up to 30% a surface circulation is forming overland so expect td 6 or ts Fernand before this system is done.Allanjeffs 18:19, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Like the GOM AOI, I am still not expecting any development from this invest. It is rather disorganized right now, and only has a slight chance of formation, if it enters the BOC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:25, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Though the main cloud mass is positioned over the peninsula the wave axis is already halfway through the Bay of Campeche. Five-day experimental outlook remains equivalent to two-day outlook. Though development seems unlikely in the BoC (only one model, OCD5, suggests Texas-track and weak TS), some models are developing this once it enters the Pacific, specifically SHIP, SHF5, LGEM, IVCN, and IVC15.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:11, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Nogaps or the new model upgrade predict this sytem I am still very positive its going to be Fernand or at least td 6.Allanjeffs 20:26, August 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting this AOI to survive Mexico; almost no TC has done that before, especially after crossing the heart of the country and it's mountains. Like I said, there's a chance it could develop, but it'll have very little time in the BoC to do so, and I don't want to deal with another piece of shit storm. We've already had 5 in a row. I hate it when we get a bunch of weakling tropical storms that just steal a name off the list, a la 2011. Ryan1000 22:12, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * upt to 50%Then be prepare for the 6th as td 6 or Fernand is coming.This looks like 2011 over again,But all the major models are at least showing after this one three more in the EAtlantic and two being hurricanes and 1 major.Allanjeffs 23:35, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

I am still not expecting anything from this invest. It is still rather disorganized and it will have to pull a Karl (2010) if it wants to become a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:07, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

Remember Barry and Gert,I am very confident it will be upgrade the most important thing in a tc is a surface circulation if it has one and well organize convection may grow later.Allanjeffs 01:55, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Oh well Allan, I don't like all the failures we've had thus far but if this manages to become organized enough to become TS Fernand in the BoC, there's nothing we can do about it...And yeah, models are picking up on something big coming in the Eastern Atlantic as the week progresses, but everything leading up to the 29th, when the SAL will abate from the North Atlantic for good, is mere speculation at this point. And if we do get something, let it be a fishspinner. Ryan1000 02:26, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 60% and coming from one of the most conservative member of the NHC which is Berg.I am expecting ts Fernand or at least td 6 tomorrow afternoon when the plane go to investigate.Allanjeffs 05:49, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like it has a good chance after all, it could become one at any time now. But it has only 12-15 hours or so until it'll be moving ashore. It better get on with it. Ryan1000 12:32, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Even though this invest has a high percentage and, in my opinion, is already better organized than Bret' 05, Gert' 05, and Barry '13 ever were, I am still refusing to believe it will become a tropical storm. Sorry for my pessimistic attitude towards this invest, but I have seen quite a few of 70%, 80%, and even 90% failures before. If it does become tropical and slams into Mexico, I want either "Tropical Depression Six" or "Hurricane Fernand". I expect the former and nothing beyond. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:53, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We have enough storms in this season to start this section (four), but nothing is worth retiring so far.

My predictions:

Andrea - 1% - It affected a variety of regions, but it is not going.

Barry - 0.5% - If Arlene (2011) was not retired for affecting the same regions as Barry did, it is not going as well.

Chantal - 0.1% - One death does not cut it in this case.

Dorian - 0.01% - Just for regenerating after everyone said it was done.

Erin - 0.05% - There was some rain in the Cape Verdes, but if Fran (1984) was not retired for affecting Cape Verde, neither will Erin.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

STO12's Predictions


 * ANDREA: 20% Caused some impact to Florida and the southeast, but not significant enough for a retirement.
 * BARRY: 15% Torrential rains in Central America, but not enough impact to sustain a retirement.
 * CHANTAL: 5% Caused very little impact to the windward islands, no retirement for Chantal.
 * DORIAN: 5% No impact to land as a tropical storm. It's remnants and regenerated tropical depression status did more.
 * ERIN: 0% No impact to land.

ST✪12 21:54, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * But what about its remnants? Wouldn't the remains of Dorian have a possibility to cause at least some impact/damage? Jeffrey1998 (talk) 04:16, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, Dorian's remnants have a 10% chance of coming back. He still has a chance to do something. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * You honestly think Dorian is going to regenerate? I don't and it's at 0% right now, so I was correct. Dorian was a fail to me, its remnants didn't do anything big. -.- ST✪12 23:11, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I said that two days ago, when it had a chance of regenerating. But now, he's dead. Dorian never did jack sh!t. Ryan1000 03:23, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Here's my predictions!

Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 5% - Caused some impact to the southeast, but too little impact for retirement.
 * Barry - 1% - Affected Mexico, but it will not be retired.
 * Chantal - 0.1% - Caused very little impact.
 * Dorian - 0% - Fail, but surprised us by regenerating after everyone thought it was done.
 * Erin - -∞% - EPIC FAIL!

RyanK is here: That's all for now. Ryan1000 16:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 2% - Not much different from Alberto '06. Caused some flooding, but nothing severe.
 * Barry - 2% - Just like Bret '05. Some damage, some deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough to warrant retirement.
 * Chantal - 1% - I was hoping to see more from Chantal, but it fell flat on it's face in the open Caribbean...Still, give it a 1% for the death in the Dominican Republic.
 * Dorian - 0% - It tried and failed.
 * Erin - 0% - What a disgrace.

BONJOUR, CA VA?
 * Andrea = 5%. She did cause a bit of hype along the northeast but her impacts were not life-threatening, just too petty.
 * Barry = 1%. That name did give me the creeps when I first saw it on the list but he is nothing more than a candidate for 2019's hurricane list.
 * Chantal = 0%. That was absolutely dreadful.
 * Dorian = -∞%. What the bloody hell was that? 
 * Erin = -∞%. Just vomited. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! Pinkie pie signature and infobox gif.gif

I thought I had done my already anyways.

Andrea:3% believe it or not she has been one of the most interesting so far but anyways just left some rains and three deaths. Retirement is out of the question.

Barry:2% Knowing Mexico for sure will not recommend this fail for retirement.They don`t even retire big hurricanes like Karl then this one is going to stay,I am pretty sure no ones remember a TS Barry in Mexico.

Chantal :1% Another system that sucumbs to the trade winds in the Ecab.Fail

Dorian: 1% and the parade of fail continues that 1% is just because he regenerate when the majority didn`t thought he will.

Erin:1%Did I really need to comment? It affect the Cape verde but if Fran in 1984 which I believe has been the most damaging and deadliest storm there which caused at least 32 deaths wasn`t retire then this one for sure will not for just rain.Allanjeffs 21:56, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

We don't have anything that stands a chance of retirement so far, but I'll put mine in anyway: --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:21, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea: 4% - Caused some hype along the US East Coast, but the impacts weren't all that much. Basically what Liz said.
 * Barry: 2% - It killed 3 people, but considering the fact that those deaths were in the ever-conservative Mexico, retirement isn't happening.
 * Chantal: 1% - 1 death in the Dominican Republic, and it was very blustery in Saint Lucia. Blown to pieces before it could do much else.
 * Dorian: 0% - It impressed us by regenerating after being dead for a week, but it had no impacts on land, so no.
 * Erin: 0% - A bit of rain in Cape Verde, and zilch after that.

Btw I discover that the Cape verdes are not a member in the group that represents the Atlantic basin that is why maybe Fran was not retire.I imagine that even if a storm affects Africa it will not be retire as they are not members of the same region.Allanjeffs 18:34, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Very interesting, Allan. This would also explain why Beryl '82 and Delta '05 were not retired. They both affected the Cape Verdes/Canaries to a considerable extent, too. (I don't care if Delta was a Greek letter name, it should have been retired!) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:11, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, maybe in the future if a hurricane causes enough damage somehwere in Africa or in southern Europe (1842 Spain Hurricane), maybe the WMO could consider those countries for the North Atlantic group in the future. Andrew, as far as I know, the WMO discussed the naming lists in detail after 2005. Had the unnamed Azores subtropical storm been discovered operationally everything would've been pushed back 1 name, Wilma would've been Alpha, and we would've ended at Eta. The WMO said if a greek-named hurricane causes enough damage to warrant retirement, the name will be retired, but instead of being replaced with any particular name, the next time a hurricane season reaches the greek alphabet, the retired greek name will be skipped and the next one will be used instead (I.E. Alpha,  Beta, Gamma, if Beta becomes retired). No greek names in 2005 were retired, though Beta could've gotten a lot stronger if it remained offshore Nicaragua longer. I doubt we'll see any hurricane season in the near future that will go as far down the list as 2005 did, but with the way this active cycle has gone, anything is possible. Ryan1000 02:34, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

Mid-season predictions
This is the time of the season when CSU and NOAA issue their mid-season forecasts for the remainder of the season. To concide with their recent predictions, I will release my personal mid-season predictions in this section. If anyone else would like to have a say in the activity for the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season, please feel free to post it here.

For the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I predict:

16 named storms (Pablo), 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 155.

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has had a very weak start. Although we have had four tropical storms, none of them have been strong or destructive. My previous prediction called for 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricane. However, this forecast assumed June and July would be hectic. In reality, these two months were pathetic. A good analouge for this season, in my opinion, would be 2003, 2007, or 2010. All three of these seasons had sluggish June-Augusts, but then imploded in September. 2013 is poised to do the same. Also, I think we could see a re-Isabel or re-Ivan this season. In addition, it should be noted both 2003 and 2007 had a power outage of strong storms. 2007 had plenty of storms (fifteen), but only one storm (Dean) lasted longer than a week. 2003 had three impressive major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel, and Kate), but was otherwise a dud season, minus Juan. I think 2013 will also be devoid of many strong system. This is why my forecast calls for a truckload of storms, but a disproportionate amount of hurricanes.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew 2013 has been extremely active.It already has 4 name storms.2010 have Danielle until August 21 so give it a chance.I believe we are going to get between 16 to 17 names storms 8 to 9 hurricanes and 4 to 5 majors.Allanjeffs 19:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think we'll get a very active season this year; my predictions in my blog could actually be lackluster, I wouldn't be surprised if we get an explosion of activity in late August and September and possibly even run the table this year. I'm predicting a total of 18-21 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Don't lose hope for this year just yet. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'll throw my hat in the ring and predict 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:00, August 23, 2013 (UTC)