Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season/October

96L.INVESTEdit
10% atm, but will be rather slow to develop, maybe not even until it reaches the western Caribbean. Ryan1000 21:09, September 30, 2012 (UTC)

Invest 96L now. Even though it might become a TS, the models actually recurve it east well away from the Lessers. It probrably won&apos;t become more than 50-55 knots anyway. Ryan1000 03:55, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

30%Allanjeffs 12:37, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

40% now, might be Oscar. Ryan1000 20:11, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

60% people Oscar might finally come after two bust.Allanjeffs 00:01, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Oscar&apos;s debut as a tropical cyclone. Also, if this does become Oscar, it&apos;ll mark the first time since 2003-2005 that the Atlantic Ocean has been able to produce three sucessive seasons of 15+ storms (NOTE: if you count Catarina, 2003-2005 had three back-to-back seasons of 16 storms). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:37, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Please be Oscar! It&apos;ll be its first naming ever since they created the new lists in 1979. STO12 (talk) 01:21, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

yep me too from the six lists this is the only that has not reach the O letter.the gfs make this a strong tropical storm and the ships a major lets hope for a major as its not going to affect land.Allanjeffs 01:32, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

I&apos;m not sure about Oscar-to be becoming a major hurricane. Environmental conditions will only be favorable for 2-3 more days until it turns out to sea and weakens from there on out. And this year has the potential to make more than 15 storms if we keep going on after Oscar. If we get 3 more storms in October and one more in November, we&apos;d have a 19-storm season. That would make 2010-2012 the first time we would have 19 storms in 3 straight years, but it would be a record if we had 18 or even 17 alone. So if we get two more storms after this, it would be a record by itself. Ryan1000 07:36, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Ok.... Oppa Oscar Style!! :D I think he would wander in the ocean 188.223.248.201 16:00, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

70% chance of becoming Tropical Depression Fifteen. Off topic, but the name Oscar reminds me of Oscar the Grouch. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:56, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

80% could become a td tonight or tomorrow morning.Allanjeffs 23:54, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Later this morning. It&apos;ll be heading out to sea almost immediately though, moving into the area where Nadine sat in for more than a week. Outside chance at becoming a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:47, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

90% now. Here comes...Ryan1000 12:33, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression FifteenEdit
OK!!! NEWS!! Tropical depression 15 is now active!! He is in Western Africa and is expected to be oscar (who will win an oscar award and a gold medal at the paralympics 100m *oscar pistorious, epic!*) and will be only a lil&apos; tropical storm floating just off the coast of the Sahara! Oscar is now HERE! HE WAS BORN THIS WAY! :D So, what d&apos;ya think of this? Oscar being a lil&apos; tropical storm? Not another hurricane again! But I want my patty!! waaaa! *I think Miss Pattz would be stronger though!* 188.223.248.201 18:35, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT OCCUR.Allanjeffs 20:47, October 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Going to be a fishie.--Isaac829E-Mail 20:13, October 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Might not become a ts read at what the NHC has to say.
 * Unless TD 15 Michael or Daniels out, it&apos;ll just be another Joyce (but this is what I said about Michael, and look what happened). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:16, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Oh no! The path is now beginning to keep it a tropical depression, no! Please be Oscar! D: STO12 (talk) 21:37, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

I call minimal tropical storm out of this, 40-45 mph winds. Nothing more or less. Told you the environment wasn&apos;t that favorable. It has one or two days to become Oscar. It&apos;ll be dead by this Friday or Weekend. Ryan1000 22:16, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * I want to see Oscar too, but I don&apos;t want a waste of a name like Joyce. Let this stay a TD. Unless this season pulls a 2002 or 2006, there should be plenty more opportunities for a decently strong Oscar, especially in the NW Caribbean (Rina, Paula, Richard, Ida, and throw in Paloma for the really crazy stuff). Remember, Michael is our only major of the season so far, and he just barely made the grade. --HurricaneMaker99 23:46, October 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * The last time this list was used in 2006 there was not a single Tropical Depression of that season that didn&apos;t become a TS. This year is on par with doing that too, unless this doesn&apos;t make it to Oscar. I want it to become something big, but if it meets the qualifications for even only a minor TS, we&apos;ll have to go with it. Ryan1000 00:11, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I agree if it meet the qualifications for an upgrade lets do it no matter the intensity.Allanjeffs 01:39, October 4, 2012 (UTC) .FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL

ATLANTIC...Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hm... AL, 15, 2012100400,, BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M, --Isaac829E-Mail 02:32, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * the 15 tropical storm of the season has develop base on the ATCF the curse may be broken waiting for the NHC for confirmation.Allanjeffs 02:38, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry hurricane Maker but Oscar is here.Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm OscarEdit
Lol yeah I saw. He&apos;s here, but already doomed. --HurricaneMaker99 02:59, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

And Oscar the Grouch made his Atlantic debut! And we got a Florence/Joyce 2.0. Sorry, Liz, but Oscar isn&apos;t going to win any Oscars AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:12, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yay! We have Oscar! I&apos;ve been waiting for this all year! This is the first time in Atlantic history a tropical cyclone has been named Oscar, Hooray! Even though it going to be ripped apart pretty soon. STO12 (talk) 03:16, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah. Of course, 2000 would have had Oscar if the last subtropical storm was named, and it still counts as 15 storms overall in that season. He&apos;s falling apart already. By tomorrow afternoon, he (and Nadine) will be dead. Ryan1000 11:11, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

When Patty forms if it forms it would be a record breaking storm.Allanjeffs 21:22, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Allan, that depends whether or not you count the South Atlantic. If you do, the record for the most active three sucessive Atlantic seasons will actually be tied (as I said above) (2003 made it to Peter, 2004 made it to Otto + Catarina, 2005 made it to Zeta + the Azores subtropical storm). If you don&apos;t, then Patty will indeed be a record breaker. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:30, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

2003-2005 had 59 storms in all 3 years, excluding the SAtl. 2010-2012 has had 53 thus far. We&apos;d need to get to Alpha (storm 22) to break 2003-2005&apos;s record. If you include the South Atlantic, we&apos;d only need to get to William, since there was Anita in 2010 and Arani in 2011, vs only Catarina in 2004. We&apos;d need 25 storms this year to have 2011-2012 beat 2004-2005 as the most active back-to-back seasons ever, but I wouldn&apos;t look forward to seeing that happening. Ryan1000 21:45, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES

THIS EVENING. Apparently he will not win the HAMMYS :P --Isaac829E-Mail 02:40, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

he keeps getting stronger even though I think this or 60mph will be its peak. I would be very surprised if it becomes a hurricane.Allanjeffs 03:05, October 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * The Oscar joke made me lol. NHC&apos;s been awfully cheeky this season. They had fun with Kirk, Nadine, and now Oscar. I was particularly fond of their farewell to Nadine: "Bye bye, Nadine...what a long and strange trip it&apos;s been." For future reference guys, please leave sections on recently dissipated storms up for a few days before archiving them. Archiving them as soon as the last advisory is issued is premature and cuts off a potentially active and relevant discussion. As for Oscar, I actually think he&apos;s done pretty well, considering the circumstances. I was hoping he was going to stick around for a little longer but that low in the north Atlantic has gone straight up beast mode, dominating most of the Atlantic basin. I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but El Nino is settling in and the Atlantic is already starting to shut down. The Caribbean and GOM are now dominated by westerly shear. There&apos;s a chance we could see another brief tropical storm like Oscar, but other than that, I think the season&apos;s pretty much over. It made the most of the time it had, but was remarkably short on power with just one major hurricane. -- SkyFury 08:24, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of OscarEdit
Another fail.--Isaac829E-Mail 19:34, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Poof. Without winning any awards. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:02, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Actually the El Niño is faltering skyfury as Dr masters says I think we could squeeze three more named storms and one major probably in the Caribbean and would probably hit Cuba.Allanjeffs 23:27, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Sorry Eric. I&apos;ll archive storms a little later after the storm dissipates. Well, Nadine could have her own archive. And no, 2012 isn&apos;t over yet. The El Nino was only temporary and we still could get 3-4 named storms before the season is out. Hell, we could move back to La Nina next year. Just because we have some shear now doesn&apos;t mean we keep having it. In fact, some models are picking up on a low that could form near the Bahamas next Monday or Tuesday from the trough emerging off the East Coast and that could become Patty. So no, don&apos;t give up on this season yet. October has had many nasty surprises, including the most powerful hurricane on record in the Atlantic and the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in over 200 years. I wouldn&apos;t quit on 2012 just because it looks bad now that October just begun. I said it was over before at times like this and I really spoke too soon. I won&apos;t do that again, especially for a season like this. Ryan1000 03:02, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Hi Oscar! Oh... bye Oscar! And yes Ryan, October looks to be a good, and bad, month for cyclones. —12R.KIEWII 21:48, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Oh I know there have been some nasty surprises in October, but none of them have happened in 30 knots of shear. I&apos;m not saying Patty won&apos;t happen, but I am saying don&apos;t expect a storm of any significance for the remainder of the season. Given the increasingly negative and persistent upper level condtions, I seriously doubt there will be another hurricane this year and it wouldn&apos;t surprise me if there isn&apos;t another storm period. Throughout the Atlantic, shear is exceptionally hostile (up to 60 knots in the GOM, 40-50 in the W. Atl, and 20-30 in the Caribbean). I expect this to continue. I&apos;ve seen this before. Upper level troughs and mid-latitude frontal systems have been digging deep into the Gulf lately, bringing nasty shear conditions along with them...their season is over. The Caribbean and the rest of Hurricane Alley is dominated by persistent westerly winds. This is unlikely to change for the remainder of the season. There&apos;s a chance a storm could find an upper level ridge to camp under for a few days and become an Oscar-like storm. Other than that, we&apos;re done. -- SkyFury 07:04, October 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * We still have 3 more weeks until October is over. The season actually undergoes a secondary peak by about October 19, so conditions actually could become more favorable one more time until they die off by November. Even so, we still can&apos;t let our guard down either way, since there have been surprises. But then again, not all of those surprises turned out to be what they were initially feared to. Hurricane Rina of last year was one such storm. The precursor storm that would become Rina was forecast to, at one point by the models, crash into Cuba as a monstrous 140 mph major hurricane, but in reality we barely got a major hurricane from Rina (it was upgraded in post-season), and it only lightly tapped the Yucatan as a dying tropical storm. The point i&apos;m saying is, it&apos;s only October 7th. October is far from over and it&apos;s not out of the question we could get a strong storm in the Caribbean or GOM later this month. Ryan1000 11:59, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

This isn&apos;t wholly relevant to Oscar, but 60 knots of shear?!?! Holy cow! I wonder how rough a time a strong hurricane would be having when traveling into such shear conditions? --HurricaneMaker99 02:48, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

It won&apos;t last forever. It will settle down one last time in the next week or two until it dies out in November. Our secondary peak is 10 days away. Ryan1000 16:50, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

97L.INVESTEdit
As I said Eric, never give up on a season. 10% atm, and could be Patty later next week. Ryan1000 17:39, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * It&apos;s in a pretty unfavorable environment though, but is expected to move out of the unfavorable area and possibly develop. Patty hopefully! STO12 (talk) 19:30, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * TBH, I&apos;m more excited about Olivia than 97L. If this ever does become tropical and subtropical, better do it soon. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:31, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * After it moves out of the shear over the next few days, we could potentially see Patty, but not in the next 2 days. Ryan1000 12:01, October 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Agree the NHC is flying tomorrow into this system if it continues to organize.Allanjeffs 15:24, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 10%, no Patty I don&apos;t think. It&apos;s in such an unfavorable environment that development will most likely not happen. Aw well, doesn&apos;t mean an invest won&apos;t pop up for the rest of the season. right? :/ STO12 (talk) 23:50, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

Actually the gfs is showing three storms in its run.two in the caribbean like 2008 when we have td 16 and Omar and 1 in the Eastern Atlantic like Nana.Allanjeffs 04:58, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Oh, well. Never looked like it had a chance. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:12, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

SHIPS briefly expects it to peak at 35 knots in 2 days, but I think that won&apos;t happen. Probrably not this one. Ryan1000 13:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

I think this might have a better chance than it has before! I just saw recent satellite loops on the system, and a continuous spin with deep thunderstorm convection around the center is occurring. This might in fact pull a "Jose (2011)" and become Patty! I&apos;m not 100% sure though. STO12 (talk) 03:02, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Sorry, Otto, but 97L is off the TWO now. Doesn&apos;t mean it&apos;ll pop back up. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:54, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

this thing is looking very good right now may become a td later today even though its at 10%Allanjeffs 20:41, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Not expecting that to happen. If it does make it to something, make it to Patty (please). I don&apos;t want any unnamed depressions this season. We&apos;ve already done a great job of that so far, in both the ATL and EPac. I hope 97L doesn&apos;t break that curse. Ryan1000 22:24, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">This can be like 2008 the sixteen td didn`t strengh that year.waiting for the two to see the chances of 97L.Allanjeffs 23:26, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

I want this to become either TS Patty or nothing at all. I&apos;d like to see a season with no unnamed depressions, like the 2006 Atlantic season, but they had an unnamed tropical storm discovered in post-season at the same time Beryl formed in July. If we get no unnamed depressions this year in either ATL or EPac (which both have none right now atm), it would be the first time to have no unnamed storms period in either season, assuming there are no post-season tropical storms discovered. Ryan1000 23:55, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Similar to 98L, organization of 97L has increased, and it now has a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:07, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 50% might become a depression but I am doubting a ts hope it doesn`t form unless it becomes named.Allanjeffs 05:49, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The models are split on where 97L will go. Some take it out to sea, while some move it in the opposite direction towards Cuba and the Bahamas. We&apos;ll see. Since this and 98L are both at 50%, it&apos;s a race to which will become Patty first. The latter would be Rafael, unless one of the two doesn&apos;t make it. Ryan1000 13:50, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression SixteenEdit
We might not see a TS out of this.--Isaac829E-Mail 20:07, October 11, 2012 (UTC)ç

Actually is a TS now.<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">AL, 16, 2012101118,, BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,. History has been made for this list.Allanjeffs 20:36, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm PattyEdit
<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">now officially in the NHC page.Allanjeffs 20:43, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Did not see that coming.--Isaac829E-Mail 21:16, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * So 97L did make it. So far, so good, but it&apos;ll die soon. Ryan1000 21:21, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * For the record, this is A.) the seventh Atlantic &apos;P&apos; named storm on record, AND: B.) The second time in Atlantic history we&apos;ve seen back-to-back years of 16 named storms (and even this is only if you count 2004&apos;s Catarina). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:19, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * And the first time we saw 3 straight years of 16 storms in ATL, again only if you count Catarina. If 98L makes it to Rafael, it&apos;ll be the first time we got 17 storms for 3 straight years, and we could also do it for 18 and even 19 storms too. That&apos;s pretty remarkable. Ryan1000 21:26, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

I just knew it would be Patty! The name Patty does seem like it should be a weak storm, teh larger system should be "Rafael", which in my opinion is a strong storm name. STO12 (talk) 21:42, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">To be honest, I think both this and Rafael will be only tropical storms. Rafael has an outside shot to become a hurricane, but not a very strong one (C1 at most). Ryan1000 00:41, October 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ah, the Atlantic is trying to make me eat my words I see. I didn&apos;t think this piece of crap would become anything. If anything was going to develop, I thought it&apos;d be 98L. In October, storms often form along decaying frontal boundaries, but most form in the Gulf. This one&apos;s a little stranger. It formed in 20-30 knots of shear and it&apos;s practically embedded in a strong frontal system associated with a mid-latitude cyclone, hell of one too (979mb). Looks like the NHC is thinking the front will leave Patty behind and the blast of shear associated with the southwesterly flow along the boundary will blow it to pieces. I agree. -- SkyFury 02:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, like I said on the header for 97L (Patty), never give up on a season. This storm didn&apos;t really do much other than steal a name off the list, to be honest, but it did develop in the face of immense wind shear, and it still counts towards the total. Ryan1000 11:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah probably a depression in the next advisory. we could see Sandy and Tony before the month is over. gfs is forecasting a storm in the central Atlantic and a storm in the NW Caribbean.Allanjeffs 17:00, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I knew 2012 wasn&apos;t over yet. We still have a chance to run the table. Assuming 98L becomes Rafael, we could get 2-3 more storms in October and another 1-2 in November. Ryan1000 18:03, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * More Amazingly is that we have no storms in July and only two in September and still we get pretty far down the list.Allanjeffs 18:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, we had a record August and pre-season Allan. We never had 4 storms form before July until this year, and only in one other year (2004) did we see an 8-storm August. 4 storms before July+8 storms in August+2 storms in September, and currently 2 in October (expecting a 4-5 storm October), adds up to a very active season. Ryan1000 19:25, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wasn&apos;t the only one who&apos;s forecast got busted by the recent activity. The Climate Prediction Center did not forecast any tropical development this week in the Atlantic. I don&apos;t view my dire prediction as "quitting" on the season. I saw what looked like an increasingly negative pattern developing in the Atlantic. In Patty&apos;s case, conditions were prohibative but the storm developed anyway. That&apos;s one of the things that makes forecasting so difficult. Sometimes storms don&apos;t follow the rules. I did say, however, that if a storm got a high pressure ridge to camp under, it could really do something, and that&apos;s exactly what&apos;s happening with 98L/Rafael. -- SkyFury 22:32, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression PattyEdit
Here goes nothing. Off topic, but I had no idea we would make it this far down in this naming list. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:05, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It still...doesn&apos;t want to die... Ryan1000 14:22, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of PattyEdit
It&apos;s rotted away. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:58, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It failed at living its life, but Patty gets credit in my book for forming period, given the conditions it was in at that time. Ryan1000 17:36, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">hmm.... exactly. pattz a weak storm, but im glad she formed for da first time! yey! love the name!! :D - eats a krabby patty - 188.223.248.201 20:56, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Central AtlanticEdit
Popped on the TWO. Currently at 10% chance for development in the next two days. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:36, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Now this system should become Patty, unless the the other systems pulls a "Jose (2011)", then it would be Rafael. STO12 (talk) 23:51, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

If anything, it&apos;ll be Patty. 97L is in an enviorment gradually getting worse. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:12, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

98L.INVESTEdit
Invested and up to 20%. 98L could possibly be a long-term threat, but nothing is expected from it in the next few days. ECMWF is very underwhelmed by this invest. GFS sees it heading northeast of Puerto Rico and heading out to sea without becoming anything significant. It might actually recurve north before it even reaches the Lessers and head out to sea without doing (or becoming) anything. Ryan1000 13:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Now up to 30% as organization improves. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:54, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I&apos;m not sure if 98L is going to be in a real hurry to head north, like the GFS, Euro, and other models are suggesting. I just don&apos;t think it will head to Puerto Rico and the Virgins. 98L should head into the Caribbean sea and develop into something when it reaches the Westernmost Caribbean sea. I see no reason why it shouldn&apos;t. Ryan1000 17:17, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gale force winds have been reported in heavy squalls from 98L. With a better organization and more conductive conditions, this invest is up to a 40% chance of development for the next 48 hours. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:04, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Organization even better...50%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:43, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

The models are still strongly suggesting a sharp northward turn from this invest. GFS actually has it completely missing the Lesser Antillies to the east. The others move it to PR and the Virgins. Not one of them thinks this will make it to the western Caribbean, but that&apos;s where I would expect 98L to head toward. Ryan1000 13:50, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 70%! Here comes Rafael! STO12 (talk) 23:58, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It&apos;ll be heading into Puerto Rico and the Virgins over the next few days, but only as a TS. I&apos;m not expecting a hurricane out of this. Ryan1000 00:41, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I am expecting a hurricane once its cross PR.Allanjeffs 02:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

It might be one eventually, but not before, or while, it hits the Lesser Antillies. They&apos;re probrably just gonna get some blustery conditions from this storm, but this will be no Marilyn, Lenny, or Hugo for the folks there. Ryan1000 02:25, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

I am expecting this thing to be a strong tropical storm to cat 1 when it reach PR it looks very good it might strength rapidly really want to know what recon founds tomorrow.Allanjeffs 05:20, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I really just want this to be only a TS when it strikes the islands. I don&apos;t want this to be any worse than Klaus (1984 or 1990). Or, it could pull an Omar, which exploded in the northeastern Caribbean yet missed most of the major islands. But we really don&apos;t want this to pull a Marilyn or a Lenny. Isaac was notable enough for this season anyways. Ryan1000 11:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">When Upgrade it would go straight to ts Rafael <span style="line-height: 17px; font-family: &apos;lucidagrande&apos;, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(51,51,51)">AL, 98, 2012101212,, BEST, 0, 137N, 618W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 150, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, the system is strengthening.Allanjeffs 15:01, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="line-height: 17px; font-family: &apos;lucidagrande&apos;, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(51,51,51)">NHC says they&apos;ve refused to upgrade this storm to Rafael because it hasn&apos;t yet acquired a closed low-level circulation despite producing tropical storm force-winds. Once that happens, it will be Rafael. Still not too sure about how strong this will get though. Ryan1000 18:03, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * 90% per STWO.--Isaac829E-Mail 21:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Who could&apos;ve called three sucessive years that reached the &apos;R&apos; name (assuming 98L does so)? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 21:12, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * It would do so is on the verge of Becoming Rafael.Allanjeffs 21:20, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Rafa is imminent, if it&apos;s not already there. Three straight seasons of 17-plus storms is incredible. Hell, back to back 19 storm seasons was absurd. Neither of those things have ever happened. Say what you want about the power outage and the large percentage of weak storms, 17 storms is 17 storms. What makes this stretch so remarkable is the consistency of the activity. El Ninos happen. There&apos;s supposed to be one this year. Usually there&apos;s a lull every third year. So many things have to go right to get a 17 storm season. To have back to back to back seasons that active is simply remarkable. This storm is definitely one to watch. Most of the models make this at least a moderate tropical storm and some make it a significant hurricane. They also have it becoming a threat to Bermuda, so stay tuned. -- SkyFury 22:15, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm RafaelEdit
Its here the 17 storm of the season has come.Allanjeffs 23:56, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep.Isaac829E-Mail 00:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * 40 mph/1006 mb. GOD! The Atlantic ocean won&apos;t stop! Stay tuned, guys. The Antilles are about to get a good visit from Rafael. Anyway, this means 2012 is now the seventh most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. BTW, who could&apos;ve called back to back to back seasons of 17 named storms?! Even if you do count the SAtl, this is the first time in reliable Atlantic records this has happened. Our fifth &apos;R&apos; named storm has just begun... AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:38, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * I did. look at the betting pool I say Patty even though I am loosing by one storm I am not doing bad. I knew this season wouls be active no matter what people thought of this season at first.Allanjeffs 00:50, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn&apos;t even forecast a hurricane out of this one...Then again, it might be only temporary. Other than some blustery conditions for parts of the Lesser Antillies, this storm shouldn&apos;t be to much of a hassle for the folks there. Hell, I&apos;d be surprised if this becomes a Tomas at the very least. And the models are picking up on additional activity after this. As Allan said above, we could get two more storms in the next week per what GFS says, and if that happens, we would be at 19 storms, for 3 straight years. If we get two more storms in October and two more in November, we would run the table, which is what last year and the year before were so agonizingly close to acomplishing. The one main thing that sets this year apart from the two previous years IMO is the lack of a significantly high death toll, which is good. Although the Atlantic has been very active in the past few years, the death tolls from storms in the past 3 years just kept getting lower and lower with every season. 2010&gt;2011&gt;2012. I could care less about the damage caused since it will be rebuilt anyways. I don&apos;t know how long the luck streak will live on, but sooner or later, the U.S. will get hit by another massive major hurricane like the 2004-2005 majors that hit the country, and like I&apos;ve said before, people will get complacent if we go too many years without a strong U.S. major hurricane. Sure we&apos;ve had Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Isaac since 2005, but all of them could&apos;ve been much worse than they actually were, and they were nothing compared to the 2004-2005 monsters. On one dreadful day though, that luck will run out, just like it did before... Ryan1000 00:55, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Meh. I though we were gonna run the table in 2010 but just like in 1995, nothing happened in November. Only two seasons have ever run the table, so I seriously doubt it&apos;ll happen this year. October has exceeded my expectations, however. We&apos;ve incredibly already had more storms this month than we did in September, though Leslie spent the majority of its life in September. Also, Irene killed 56 people, Ryan, more than Charley or Frances, and caused $15.6 billion in damage in the United States alone. It was the fifth costliest hurricane of all time. It may not have been a major hurricane in terms of intensity, but it sure was a major hurricane in terms of destruction. Irene&apos;s 47 US deaths were more than Wilma&apos;s 36, Charley&apos;s 30, and weren&apos;t far short of Ivan&apos;s 54. Only four of the "2004-2005 monsters" killed more people in the US (Frances, Ivan, Katrina and Rita) and nearly all of Rita&apos;s 120 and Frances&apos; 48 were indirect deaths. Storms like Katrina, Wilma, Andrew and Ike are watershed events. Catastrophes like those are fortunately extremely rare and usually occur only once a generation, though lately we&apos;ve averaged roughly two per decade. And the fact that fewer people are dying doesn&apos;t necessarily mean storms are any less destructive. A lot of it has to do with whether or not people heed the warnings. -- SkyFury 06:56, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wasn&apos;t really refering to damage since I know they were still destructive, and damage is rebuilt over time anyways. Lives can&apos;t be rebuilt. 2010-2012 was not anywhere close to being as deadly as 2004-2005. Katrina killed over 1,800 people, though as you said, not everyone heeds warnings, Stan killed over 1,500 people from deadly flooding in Guatemala, and Jeanne killed 3,000 people in Haiti. Although not all of them came with prior warning and not all of them hit well-prepared places, 3,000 deaths is 3,000 deaths no matter what. None of 2010, 2011, or 2012 even approached 1,000 deaths, but then again, over 400 deaths in all 3 seasons combined is still not negligible. And Irene was the 7th costliest hurricane of all time, not 5th, since Irene caused 15.6 billion in damage at the time in 2011, and damage at the time isn&apos;t the proper way to determine damage. Using inflation for today&apos;s dollars is the better way to calculate damage, not damage at the time, so Charley and Ivan are 5th and 6th, respectively, because they did more damage than Irene in today&apos;s dollars, and Ivan alone caused 20 billion in total damage at the time anyways, not just 13 billion. I know not everything has missed the United States, but still, almost all of the storms that hit the U.S, or anywhere in the Atlantic for that matter, could&apos;ve been much worse than they were in the past few years. Like you said last year, Irene could&apos;ve easily been a 100 billion dollar disaster for the big apple had that dry air from Georgia not infiltrated at the last minute. Had that dry air not been in the GOM in the heart of 2008, Gustav could&apos;ve been much stronger when it hit Louisiana and Ike would&apos;ve been a re-1900 for Galveston. And had the heart of the Atlantic not had as much shear as it did in the past few years, some of the epic fails we saw could&apos;ve been devastating storms. While we haven&apos;t gotten 100% lucky, the Atlantic hasn&apos;t been hit as hard as it otherwise could&apos;ve been. Ryan1000 11:51, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * What two season have run the table?only 2005 have do it if you are including 1933 it was discover by the NHC in its re-analysis project that it only have 20 storms.Allanjeffs 15:11, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

It wouldn&apos;t surprise me if Rafael (back on topic) doesn&apos;t become a hurricane, but there is always the possibility of flooding in parts of the Lesser Antillies. I know that not everyone values deaths the same everywhere, but 2004 and 2005 had over 3,000 deaths each and that&apos;s that. 2010 had over 250 deaths, which is bad, but not as bad as 2004-05. 2011 had about 120 deaths, which again, isn&apos;t negligible but not as bad as 2004-05, let alone 2010. 2012 had over 60 deaths thus far, which is lower than 2011, 2010, and 04-05, but still isn&apos;t nothing. It&apos;s better that the number of deaths overall have dropped from year to year, but still sad to see that the death toll isn&apos;t 0. I knew 1933 had 21 operationally, but yeah, one of the storms was deemed to not be a tropical cyclone in post-analysis, like 1950&apos;s "Mike" and 1966&apos;s "Kendra". Ryan1000 17:26, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

What happen was that they discover that two were the same tropical cyclone and that one that affect Honduras and Belize was a td instead of a ts but they discover a new one so that is why it 20.Allanjeffs 18:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah, one wasn&apos;t a TC by itself. There are a few times when the opposite happened, when it was originally thought to be one storm but in reanalysis it was two different storms, like Typhoon Vera in 1986 and Tropical Storm Ione in 1970 EPac season. Ryan1000 19:17, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">ts rafael. gonna be hurricane. i think major. gonna go canada. goes to europe. eats the krabby patty. he&apos;ll get a wimbledon trophy and a late-arrived london 2012 gold medal (ye ik the olympics are over) for tennis. agreed ppl? 188.223.248.201 20:53, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Liz, Rusty Rafael won&apos;t be even close to a major. The Krabby Patty has pretty much dissected. I doubt Rafael will make it to Europe. But we&apos;ll see what "Sandy Cheeks" will do... AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:54, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Never say never Andrew Rafael may pull a Michael.expect the unexpect it from the tropics Paul also have a great chance of becoming a major RI will probably start soon with Paul.Allanjeffs 21:39, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

I wouldn&apos;t rule out major hurricane strength with Rafael, but if it does make it, it&apos;ll be under a stronger influence from the approaching cold front and will probrably miss Bermuda to the east if it becomes a MH. I also do not expect it to become a major hurricane before it leaves the Lesser Antillies. It&apos;s certainly not impossible it could become one after that though. If it becomes one, I&apos;d take it to 120-125 mph at it&apos;s peak. Ryan1000 22:12, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Hasn&apos;t been much updating on this page as of late. Rafael&apos;s a 70 mph TS right now. At anytime...He should be a hurricane. Ryan1000 10:57, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The ninth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season has come.<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">AL, 17, 2012101512,, BEST, 0, 226N, 656W, 65, 983, HU<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">, 64, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RAFAEL, D,Allanjeffs 12:40, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">Now we just need to wait for NHC to confirm it. I think it could get a little stronger, but at this time, I would rule out Rafael becoming a major. Shear will be on the rise by tomorrow, so by then it should be weakening. Ryan1000 16:35, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Rafael might be retire from what I am seeing has cause a lot of devastation in the islands specially in Guadalupe..Might be another Klaus.Allanjeffs 18:40, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"> Yeah, like I thought earlier, even a TS like Rafael could be problematic for the Lessers, but it all depends. He lingered for quite a while over the islands. Martinique was the island that Klaus hit for France to request his retirement. Guadelupe is also a French territory and they might nominate Rafael if damages were bad enough there too. Ophelia of last year couldn&apos;t have been retired by them since Dominica, the island she hit, isn&apos;t a French territory, but an independent country from Britan (1978). We&apos;ll see. Still not a hurricane though... Ryan1000 21:58, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane RafaelEdit
Rafael, now a hurricane. Winds: 75 mph Pressure: 974 mbar. STO12 (talk) 22:59, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

That&apos;s very low for a C1 system. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:09, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Now officially a hurricane.May be stronger than forecast I say a peak at cat 2 intensity or a high upper cat 1.Allanjeffs 23:12, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 85 mph. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:07, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Rafael might try to make it to cat 2 or 3 intensity, but how much damage it does to Bermuda could play a role in its (potential) retirement, if the flooding in the Lessers wasn&apos;t enough. It&apos;s heading North-Northeast now, so it might miss Bermuda to the east, but it&apos;s still big enough to affect the island significantly. Ryan1000 08:48, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Down to 969 mb. BTW, assuming Rafael doesn&apos;t make it to Category 2 status, it&apos;ll be the third Category 1 storm this year with a pressure less than 970 mb. Has this ever happened three times in one year? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:47, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Technically, no, but that type of record is a little trivial anyways. It seems Rafael missed Bermuda. At most they got some heavy rainfall, but likely no severe damage. Ryan1000 01:59, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Probably now extratropical. Well, just by looking at wind field analysis you could determine that. GFS indicates that Rafael will have a large circulation (&gt;500 miles) by day five. Starts weakening, and degenerates into a trough over France. Kiewii! 18:51, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone RafaelEdit
Declared extratropical while still at hurricane strength. --HurricaneMaker99 20:51, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

the first time I see a the NHC making a hurricane extratropical generally they weaken the storm to ts first before declaring it.Allanjeffs 22:10, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It&apos;s not the first time it happened, but either way, he wasn&apos;t too much of a hassle. NHC forecasted it to head south in 4 days or so, but I don&apos;t think this will pull a Nadine and last endlessly over the northeastern Atlantic. The next area of disturbed weather is going to be forming in the Southwest Caribbean later this week or next week. That could become Sandy. Ryan1000 22:19, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah all the models develop it some take tracks to Florida and others to Cuba and intesity varies some also show Tony and others even show Valerie for the third time in History I think we will reach 20 name storms.Allanjeffs 21:59, October 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">@Allan: What was the third time? I know there was 2005 (28 storms) and 1933 (20 storms), but it&apos;s only happened twice in the North Atlantic (but 2010 and 2011 both technically had 20 storms if the South Atlantic is counted). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:29, October 18, 2012 (UTC)

He said "for the third time", Andrew, which would be counting this year if we get there. Intensity forecasts for future Sandy (or Tony) vary, but from what I&apos;m seeing, the models forecast two storms to come in the next week from a powerful pulse from the Madden-Julian Oscillation. One will be a weak TS and head out to sea like Patty did. The other could be a sizeable hurricane heading through Jamacia, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually, possibly Florida. That area of thunderstorms is still too far out to tell what will happen to it, but if two storms develop as the Euro and GFS suggest, we will have back to back to back seasons of 19 storms each. 2011 only ended at the "S" name, but 94L was discovered to be a TS in post-season, so everything should&apos;ve been moved back one storm each. Also, there are a few storms this year, like 98L of late July (which even I doubted at first) and 94L of late September, which could be upgraded to TS&apos;s in post-season. If both of those are upgraded, we would be at 19 storms right now anyways. However, all of this is a bit too far ahead to see for sure what will happen. Speaking of upgrades, I wonder when the NHC will release the TCR&apos;s for storms this year. They haven&apos;t released any of them since they finished Aletta a while back. Ryan1000 00:14, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Rafael is currently a strong (965 mbar) extratropical cyclone moving toward southeast. Isaac829E-Mail 03:32, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

AOI.Central AtlanticEdit
On second thought, maybe this could become Sandy first. 10%. Ryan1000 17:04, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one is most likely to become Tony instead of Sandy. This one is in a worse environment than the other. STO12 (talk) 18:10, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wouldn&apos;t rule it out, but this one indeed could become Sandy first. We don&apos;t know though Otto. We all thought 98L would become Patty first, but 97L miraculously made it to Patty before 98L made it to Rafael. Same could happen with this one. We&apos;ll see though. Ryan1000 19:20, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * For me, I agree with Otto, but this thing could beat the other AOI to Sandy. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:02, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This AOI definitely has a chance to beat the other one to the name period, but with regards to overall peak intensity, I would be much more concerned about the Caribbean AOI than this one. Ryan1000 23:26, October 19, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVESTEdit
And it&apos;s finally invested. Both 90L and 99L should become Sandy and Tony, but maybe not in that order. Ryan1000 15:21, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Organization improves...30%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:45, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Might become something after all.Allanjeffs 00:14, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I knew this would become something. Tony is on his way... Ryan1000 01:32, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Don`t count on him until he has form it may very well start to become disorganized.even though I am rooting fort this to become Tony so we can 19 storms.Allanjeffs 02:23, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

I&apos;m definitely not writing this one off yet. Nothing has changed since last night though. Both invests are at 60 and 30% respectively. However, NHC expects conditions to become more favorable later today and tomorrow until it moves out to sea in the middle of this week, when it&apos;ll be too late for it to become named. I still expect this to become Tony. Ryan1000 11:21, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

This one is becoming better organized might become a td tomorrow or Tueday.Allanjeffs 22:57, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 40%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:40, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yep, I still expect this one to develop. It probrably will become Tony tomorrow or Tuesday, assuming 99L beats this to being named Sandy. However, we can&apos;t be sure of it yet. Ryan1000 23:49, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Up to 50%Allanjeffs 12:51, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Just a little more, 90L... Ryan1000 16:18, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

up to 70 Tony its on its way.Allanjeffs 17:51, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Time is very much of the essence for 90L. It only has a 24-36 hour window to become Tony (assuming TD18 becomes Sandy first). From what I&apos;ve seen, it seems to be making the most of it. -- SkyFury 17:58, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * AFCF has 19L.Isaac829E-Mail 19:53, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Almost here... Ryan1000 20:17, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its td 19 may become Tony soon we get two systems only today.now we almost have 19 ts.At this rate I think we may reach Valerie.Allanjeffs 20:32, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression NineteenEdit
Yep.--Isaac829E-Mail 20:37, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think we will get to William. We can run the table, and I wouldn&apos;t be surprised if we do. Ryan1000 20:46, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I agree I think we may reach William. I think we may have one storm in the NW or SW Caribbean and one like Sean last year.and we could always get one in reanalysis projects.Allanjeffs 20:57, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Its becoming better organized might become Tony at the next advisory unless it becomes disorganized.Allanjeffs 05:03, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

It&apos;ll probrably become named later today. Ryan1000 10:54, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

The NHC really don`t want to upgrade this system they say its not looking better and it has become really organized I really want an Ascat right now in the storm so they can upgrade it.Allanjeffs 21:34, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It should be Tony anytime now. It has enough organization to become Tony, but the NHC is too defiant to upgrade this to Tony. I hope it becomes Tony tomorrow. Ryan1000 23:17, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">ATCF says Tony.Isaac829E-Mail 00:38, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">AL, 19, 2012102400,, BEST, 0, 264N, 498W, 35, 1004, TS<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TONY<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">, M, Finally we have nineteen for second chance in history the other being 2010 that I think we might use the 21letter of the list.Allanjeffs 01:15, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">Hm? It makes us 3rd most active, tied with 4 other seasons, two of which were the past two seasons and surpassing 1969&apos;s 18. We can make it to William, but Sandy&apos;s not strengthening as fast as I was fearing. Maybe I was right the first time after all. Also, first time we had 19 storms for 3 straight years. Ryan1000 01:21, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">Sorry I got confuse I mean it would be the 2nd time in my opinion that we could reach the 21 names of the list the other I think but couldn`t reach was 2010.Allanjeffs 02:38, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm TonyEdit
Finally! -- SkyFury 03:14, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

we already got 5 storms in October 2 in November doesn`t seem impossible.Allanjeffs 04:42, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

We did it!!! Back to back to back seasons of 19 storms! Wow!!! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:54, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Woah, Tony&apos;s looking better than ever now. It might even have a shot at hurricane status like Chris unexpectedly did. Ryan1000 16:14, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

...Or not. Losing itself after looking better earlier today. Ryan1000 00:36, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone TonyEdit
The Hawk flies no more. --HurricaneMaker99 20:51, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

AOI.Central CaribbeanEdit
Make that two. Also at 10%. So which will become named first? I think it&apos;ll be this one, but ATL is back in gear again. This and the above AOI are future Sandy and Tony in my book. Ryan1000 18:01, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one should become Sandy first. It is in an increasingly favorable environment and should begin to slowly develop. The other could possibly become Tony if conditions light up. STO12 (talk) 18:11, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some of the model runs are apocalyptic with this storm, but as I said, I think both of these will become named storms. I honestly could care less whether this is Sandy or Tony, becuase I don&apos;t like the looks on this thing. Today is the secondary peak of the Atlantic season. From here on out, conditions should start going downhill in the basin, but maybe we can sneak two more storms in until October is over. If we get two more in November after these two develop, we&apos;ll run the table. Ryan1000 19:20, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * IMO, this AOI will be the one that makes us hit the &apos;S&apos; name in back to back to back years, since the NHC says conditions are gradually favorable. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:54, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * However, that doesn&apos;t discourage me from giving up on the AOI in the Central Atlantic. If it becomes named, we&apos;ll have 19 storms for 3 straight years, though technically not the "T" name because 2011 only got 19 from the post-season upgrade on 94L. Ryan1000 21:18, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one will probably be Sandy but the NHC has say that condition are going to be more conductive for the Aoi in the Central Atlantic so it may be Tony and I think we might get Valerie if this two systems develop.Allanjeffs 22:46, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * That&apos;s why I said it&apos;s not impossible for this to be Tony and the Atlantic AOI to become Sandy. But it depends, because things could change. To be honest, I actually think that the AOI in the Central Atlantic could become Sandy first, but this one should become much stronger in the long run. The AOI in the Central Atlantic shouldn&apos;t get stronger than 50-60 mph. Some models already suggest this could become a near-major hurricane in ~5 days. This storm is the one we need to watch out for, but I expect us to get 2 more storms out of both these AOI&apos;s before October is over. After that, we&apos;d need a 2-storm November to run the table. I think a 1-storm November is most reasonable, but it&apos;s not impossible we could get to William. Ryan1000 23:26, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * up to 20% I think this one will move into Central America the one that the gfs is developing develops next week near friday or thursday is not the same one.Allanjeffs 00:02, October 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ah. That being said, that storm would be Valerie, assuming this and the above AOI become Sandy and Tony respectively. Ryan1000 01:07, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

99L.INVESTEdit
Invested and up to 30%. Actually, SHIPS only sees this becoming a moderate tropical storm, not a hurricane, before moving into Central America. Meanwhile, the AOI in the Central Atlantic is up to 20%, and may be invested soon itself. Ryan1000 12:49, October 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Up to 60%! Did not expect this. The models aren&apos;t strengthening it much but are taking it generally toward south Florida. The global models are even taking it east of Florida over eastern Cuba. -- SkyFury 18:22, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy here we come! STO12 (talk) 18:51, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Ugggh. I want next year&apos;s season to be more active, because they have funny names like Humberto and Olga and Dorian and Nestor!! I want humberto to be a massive cat 5 if I had my own way bc it is a funny name :( But.... I see sandy becoming a major? I am seeing her like Rina (the Mexican hurricane with the Indian/Japanese name?) <span style="line-height: 19.2px; font-family: sans-serif; color: rgb(0,0,0)">Ok anyway.... So... I now think the list would get up to Sandy? Sandy Cheeks much? Will she see her Danny (Tony?) I think not, but good luck to Sandy! 188.223.248.201 19:09, October 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) <span style="line-height: 19.2px; font-family: sans-serif; color: rgb(0,0,0)">Rina is a female name of Hindu origin meaning "Queen"
 * 2) <span style="line-height: 19.2px; font-family: sans-serif; color: rgb(0,0,0)">Rina is a female name of Japanese origin, where it is proportionately used the most in the twentieth century

<p style="margin-left: 24px">And you thought 2012 was over Eric. Far from it in my book. =) As I said, both this and 90L will probrably become named storms, though 90L will take a little longer. And no Liz, this won&apos;t do much, I don&apos;t think. Initially I thought 99L would become something big in the Caribbean, but now I&apos;m starting to reconsider that. It&apos;ll probrably be just a heavy rainmaker for much of the western Caribbean. Conditions aren&apos;t favorable for explosive intensification with this storm, but they are favorable enough for it to become named at the very least. Ryan1000 19:36, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Actually Ryan some of the models are strengthening this fast Sandy may become our second major hurricane .third in my book I think Gordon was one.they dive possible Sandy in the southwestern Caribbean then taking it straight to Cuba like Paloma.stay tuned I am not sure if 90L will be named.Allanjeffs 19:58, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Sandy Cheeks! So, she&apos;ll probably give rain to Nicaragua. And Eric, how&apos;s your late season prediction going? Doesn&apos;t seem too accurate. Off topic, but does anyone think we will hit William this year? AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:08, October 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * After appearing to be developing back in September and into early October, El Nino has retreated. Shear was prohibitive for much of September but has significantly abated. The activity in the Caribbean this late in the season is extremely unusual for what was supposed to be an El Nino year. This tells me that El Nino is simply non-existent. These are the things that make forecasting so difficult. I don&apos;t think anybody expected El Nino to be this much of a no show in October. The Climate Prediction Center is saying that this is confounding their winter forecast, leading to higher than usual uncertainty. I still highly doubt we&apos;ll run the table. I thought we&apos;d do it in 2010, when conditions were much more favorable, but November was dead quiet. Models don&apos;t do a lot with this, but they do develop it. It could be a rainmaker for Jamaica and eastern Cuba next week. Still not sold on 90L, it&apos;s got a long way to go if it wants a name. -- SkyFury 21:04, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Actually Eric, I expected us to get an active October. Just because we didn&apos;t have a record September in named storms doesn&apos;t mean October will be less active (*cough*2005). We will likely get two more storms from these two invests and then we&apos;ll need just two storms in November for us to run the table. I wouldn&apos;t rule 90L out though. I do expect 90L to develop Eric, but it&apos;ll just take a few days. It wouldn&apos;t completely surprise me if it doesn&apos;t become named, but I am not quitting on it yet. It just needs a little bit more organization and 5 mph more for it to become Tony, and because NHC expects shear to decrease by later today/tomorrow, it wouldn&apos;t surprise me if it&apos;s named by then. Allan, the conditions in the western Caribbean Sea are not the same now as they were in 2001, 2005, or 2008. 99L does have some shear and dry air to deal with, so I highly doubt Sandy-to be will make it past category 1 intensity, if that. Most of the models take 99L (Sandy) moving west, maybe slightly south of due west and becoming named at the least, but then the trough off the eastern seaboard will dive down and pull it northward towards Jamacia and eastern Cuba, then out to sea, being sheared all along the way. I see no reason why it should do anything else. As of now actually, NONE of the models expect this to be a monstrous category 4 or 5 in the Caribbean sea, ect, so don&apos;t count on that happening with this storm. HWRF and GFDL are the closest models to exploding this in the Caribbean, each making it about cat 3, but I can&apos;t be inclined to believe them just yet. However, no matter how you justify it, 18 storms is 18 storms. And for 3 straight years too. That&apos;s just downright incredible. I can&apos;t believe we&apos;re about to do it. Ryan1000 23:34, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Better convection...70%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 13:30, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Here comes Sandy... Ryan1000 15:22, October 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * This forecast has gotten interesting. Most of the models have this becoming a very large, deep system in the western Atlantic, potentially affecting the east coast. At the very least, it looks like this storm is gonna be a big rainmaker for the Caribbean islands and a big wave maker for the east coast. Also of note, the GFS also develops 90L and appears to have it remaining tropical all the way to Portugal. This is gonna be an interesting week. -- SkyFury 01:40, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Told you not to give up on 90L. In the case of this, I noticed some models take this storm recurving towards the east coast, but I don&apos;t see why it should. I think the trough should recurve this storm out to sea before it reaches anyone. Wave action will be heavy, but this storm shouldn&apos;t be a historic storm for the eastern seaboard like the 1991 Perfect Storm. We could easily make it to 19 storms though. Amazing. Ryan1000 03:08, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * I didn&apos;t say I&apos;d given up on 90L, I said it had a long way to go and I still believe that. The window is closing for 90L as shear is expected to increase in a few days. In any case, it&apos;s not gonna hit anything. My primary concern is 99L. -- SkyFury 05:05, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:29, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:29, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression EighteenEdit
And now numbered. Likely to become Sandy soon. Ryan1000 16:18, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC describes conditions as "highly conducive", saying there is a 50-50 chance of RI within the next 24-36 hours. Given these conditions, it should become Sandy later today and possibly reach hurricane strength before striking Jamaica and eastern Cuba in a couple of days. An extremely odd evolution is playing out in the models. Many of them have TD18/Sandy taking on hybrid characteristics once it reaches the western Atlantic. This almost reminds me of Noel back in 2007 that caused major flooding in Haiti and evolved into a strong extratropical storm over the open Atlantic. This storm could wind up being very similar, though hopefully causing less death and destruction. -- SkyFury 18:05, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * UGHHH! -_- Not another hurricane again, for God&apos;s sake! When will these hurricanes end?!?! but... BRING IT ON SANDY I&apos;m seeing her like a rina :| I WANT NEXT YRS SEASON MORE ACTIVE! !-_-! BETTER NAMES! Anyway.... so, Im seeing sandy blow up to a major or a 2 188.223.248.201 18:37, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm SandyEdit

 * the 18 of the season has come.<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold">...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY....Allanjeffs 20:59, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold">Model are Predicting RI with this one may approach Major hurricane status as it approach Jamaica.Allanjeffs 21:07, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * The reason why I don&apos;t think Sandy will become very strong is the time frame it has. It only has about one day until it&apos;s going to encounter unfavorable conditions from the trough off the east coast. And because it has a very small circulation it is very vulnerable to even slight changes in outer atmospheric changes. If that trough wasn&apos;t off the eastern seaboard, this storm would be able to explode to a cat 4 or 5 with very little effort. However, since it doesn&apos;t have a lot of time, I don&apos;t think she&apos;ll get past category 1 strength, let alone TS intensity. Ryan1000 20:17, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * <span style="text-align: center; font-family: monospace; color: rgb(0,0,0)"> Oh not again! How are we ever gonna get a nice 2013 Season? Humberto, Dorian, Nestor and those funny names if this year is sooooo active? Hopefully, its looking like Sandy would be a weakling. Weak Rina. Weak Paula. Tropical storm only. Get it? 188.223.248.201 21:12, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

It might explode, but...It still has only 2 days until NHC expects landfall in Jamacia. And we don&apos;t want it to explode because that would lead to Sandy harming people in Jamacia. =( Ryan1000 21:31, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

I see a re-Katrina (1981) or Irene (1999) from this. BTW, I think both 2012 and 2013 will have 21 named storms. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:00, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 19 has been the magic number for the past couple of years. We&apos;re staring down the barrel of three straight years of 19 storms. Unbelievable. It&apos;s gonna be very interesting to watch and see what Sandy does over the next few days. -- SkyFury 23:48, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy&apos;s got a bit of organizing to do before she can do much else. She&apos;s likely going to become a strong tropical storm at the least, but I&apos;m not sure about her becoming a hurricane yet. She&apos;s still in the formative stage atm, but tonight, things are going to get interesting. She could get much better organized, but by Wensday morning she&apos;ll be running into wind shear. Jamacia better keep a very close eye on this storm. Sandy could be a very nasty surprise for the folks there, like Paloma was to the Caymans and Cuba in November 2008. Ryan1000 00:00, October 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hmm.... Isaac829E-Mail 00:04, October 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some models do see Sandy becoming a large, powerful storm off the east coast and at the same time, they see the cold front reversing direction and going back over the great lakes. If that happens, New England might get slammed by this thing. And for a storm this late in the season, that&apos;s gonna be a very nasty surprise for the northeast. It would make the 1991 "perfect" storm look like chicken sh!t. I want Sandy to follow the paths of other storms this late in the season and head out to sea, but not everyone expects that. Currently, I&apos;m worried about Jamacia. However, it&apos;s not out of the question New England could get hit in the long run. Ryan1000 00:19, October 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Cold fronts don&apos;t reverse direction, at least not on this planet. Yeah the model forecasts are kinda scary right now. The Euro has lost its mind, having cold fronts going in reverse and bringing Sandy into New England as a Day After Tomorrow-esque 926mb monster. Pretty sure that&apos;s not gonna happen (unless the Mayans were right all along lol). More within the realm of possibility is the GFS solution, which brings Sandy right over Bermuda as a major hurricane. I seriously doubt, however, shear conditions will allow it to be that strong at that point in its life. The dynamical models have more realistic solutions, showing Sandy peaking as a Cat 1-2 in the Bahamas before weakening as it turns toward Bermuda. -- SkyFury 08:18, October 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I know the Euro is a bit nuts right now, but it&apos;s not impossible to happen. I just don&apos;t think it&apos;s gonna happen though. I also wouldn&apos;t be inclined to believe the GFS thus far. I can&apos;t expect Sandy to be a major hurricane when it reaches Bermuda, unless it pulls a Wilma and becomes a cat 5 later today lol. I expect her to become a cat 1 now, maybe cat 2, but a weakening TS when she reaches Bermuda. Ryan1000 10:54, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

Just so everyone knows, latest advisory is out, winds have been upped by only 5 miles, from 45 to 50 mph, but the pressure dropped 5 milibars, from 998 to 993. Something&apos;s telling me she&apos;s exploding in that tiny center of convection right now...Not good for Jamacia. =( Ryan1000 15:02, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

She is really strengthening Jamaica should prepare for a cat 1.Allanjeffs 01:35, October 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now a hurricane (as of latest NHC advisory)
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold">...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...
 * 11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 24
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: nowrap; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 12px">Location: 17.1°N 76.7°W

<span style="line-height: normal; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: nowrap; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 12px">Moving: NNE at 13 mph <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: nowrap; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 12px">Min pressure: 973 mb <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; white-space: nowrap; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 12px">Max sustained: 80 mph
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(0,0,0); font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold">Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane SandyEdit
See Anonymous 2.0&apos;s post above. --HurricaneMaker99 16:07, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think it&apos;ll likely head northwards through Jamacia, Cuba, and the Bahamas and then head out to sea. I can&apos;t buy the Euro solution, it just doesn&apos;t seem realistic. Ryan1000 16:14, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I am sorry to tell you Ryan but now most of the models are trending west even the gfs is moving west USA may see a landfall of Sandy if it continues.Allanjeffs 20:38, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

That&apos;s really discouraging...Sandy caused enough damage in the Caribbean already. All this thing really needs to do is head out to sea like most of the other storms this year did. The Northeast doesn&apos;t need to see another Irene-like storm, especially at this time of year. Go and stay out to sea, Sandy. No one wants any more damage from you. Ryan1000 21:58, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

I read Sandy has caused some damage in Jamaica and in Haiti and looks like RI is happening right now with might be a cat 2 or 3 landfall in Cuba if it continues.Allanjeffs 22:30, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

I think she is major or very close I knew she would strengthen fast.Allanjeffs 23:31, October 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Raw ADJ T# of 7.2!Isaac829E-Mail 00:11, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Land interaction with Jamacia actually slowed her down a bit; she looks a little less organized on the latest sattelite pics. I think she&apos;ll pass over Cuba as a category 1, likely not more than 90 mph, and then head out to sea, but beach erosion and high surf are going to be problematic. I&apos;m still not buying a U.S. landfall from Sandy yet. I still think she&apos;ll avoid landfall in the lower 48 states. Ryan1000 00:36, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * ATCF says 90 mph, 964 mbar; if that pressure goes even the teeniest bit lower, we&apos;ll have the strongest storm of the season. Fourth C1 with a pressure below 970 mbar... why? Isaac made sense because of its huge size, and Leslie made the cut at the last second due to, I presume, baroclinic effects as it was undergoing extratropical transition. Were Rafael and Sandy large enough like Isaac was? Sandy looks positively MASSIVE on satellite imagery, but her actual bite doesn&apos;t seem to reach out very far by comparison... --HurricaneMaker99 01:25, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy could potentially harm the United States. Models are indicating that Sandy could move towards the north and then turn to the west and reach New England with dangerous impacts. It is still to early to tell, but that does not mean ignore what it could possibly do. STO12 (talk) 02:02, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Correction HM99, 954 mbars. I tend to agree with the models that take it out to sea. I&apos;m not saying it won&apos;t hit New England; I just don&apos;t want it to happen and I believe it will miss making landfall in the U.S. At the very least it will cause heavy rainfall, surf, and beach erosion. However, I don&apos;t think this storm will make landfall in the lower 48 as of yet. I think the front will beat it and keep her offshore. As of now, damage in Jamacia doesn&apos;t seem to be too bad, especially considering it was only a Cat 1. Had she exploded to a Cat 3 or stronger before her landfall, she could&apos;ve been much worse for them. Haiti might have gotten flooded a little but probrably not as severely as Isaac did earlier this year. Ryan1000 03:04, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * I was blown away by the latest advisory. ATCF did indeed say 964. Either that&apos;s a typo or Sandy is going apesh*t. 954?! From a Category 1? Are you kidding me? I thought Isaac had shown more than enough in that regard, but Sandy basically just took what he accomplished and shoved it right up his ass. With a pressure as low as 954 mbar, I refuse to believe that Sandy&apos;s winds are as low as 90 mph. Note that the latest NHC forecast discussion mentioned satellite intensity estimates of at least 100 kt/115 mph. I can&apos;t say I blame them. Sandy&apos;s current satellite appearance reminds me of Gustav when he was exploding at the end of August in 2008. Gustav was on the doorstep of Category 5 intensity by the time it hit Cuba. Sandy has no chance of reaching that sort of intensity before landfall - it doesn&apos;t have nearly as much time over water as Gustav did - so we should be thankful for that. I don&apos;t buy that this is a 90 mph storm, though. Given the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS, blended with the advisory intensity, I&apos;d stab a guess that Sandy is a mid-to-high level Category 2 right now, with winds of 105-110 mph. I think this will become our second major at some point, either immediately before or not long after landfall in extreme eastern Cuba. --HurricaneMaker99 04:11, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">She really is a sweetheart doesn`t it she is really massive almost every cat1 of the season has pressure of cat 2 hurricane or 3 with the exception of Chris.I am not sure which if she is going to make landfall or not its a just a moment of wait and see what happens.I think she will be a two at landfall in Cuba.Allanjeffs 03:32, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * This storm is amazing. 35mb drop in 24 hrs is damn impressive. We better all be grateful that Cuba is about to stick its foot out in front of Sandy, because land is the only thing that&apos;s gonna stop her. This thing is absolutely exploding right now but it may hit Cuba before the winds have a chance to respond. If it wasn&apos;t hitting land right now, Sandy could&apos;ve easily become a Cat 4 with a pressure down in the 930&apos;s...possibly even stronger. Regardless, Cuba is gonna feel this one. -- SkyFury 03:54, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy has really strengthen she is now an upper cat 2 just shy of major hurricane status as it going to cross the coast of Cuba in a few minutes.Allanjeffs 05:25, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * A 114 mph wind gust was just reported in Cuba. -- SkyFury 06:03, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Most of the models are now in agreement with Sandy being pushed westward by the ridge axis and tugged northwest by that trough forming ahead of a cold front over the US Northeast just before Halloween. The cold front might absorb Sandy then turn into a backdoor warm front, dropping warm air on top of cold air over warm water in the Great Lakes region, creating an inversion and possible lake-effect snow. In fact, I anticipate that Chicago, Ohio, upstate New York, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, parts of Southwestern Ontario and even Kentucky will get appreciable amounts of snow. Areas like Maine, Halifax NS, Massachussetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and the Richelieu River Valley of Quebec will get torrents of rain if this solution pans out, and the storm could actually stick around for a couple days, and make landfall at around 950 mbar. It also has to cross the Gulf Stream before it collides with cold air being funnelled south from a Greenland High - in fact, this totally replaces the Bermuda High as Sandy and a hybird low that absorbs Tony displaces the upper-midlatitude Atlantic high. Oh yeah, remember that gigantic Nor&apos;easter in late October 2011 that absorbed the remnants of Rina and then dumped up to 31 inches of snow over Mass.? It&apos;s happened before. 2007Astro&apos;sHurricane (talk) 06:45, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it&apos;s definitely going to be an interesting Halloween in the northeast, as it was with the Perfect Storm 21 years ago. That portion of the forecast is extremely complex and uncertainty is quite high. We really don&apos;t know how the various synoptic scale systems will evolve. If Sandy maintains more of a warm core, it will be more inclined to stay further to the east as a trough advancing toward the east coast will pick it up and carry it off to the northeast. If it becomes baroclinic, however, it will likely slow down enough to be bypassed and blocked by the trough and forced to the northwest towards New England. It&apos;s almost impossible to tell with any certainty how Sandy&apos;s core structure and forward motion will evolve 4-5 days out. -- SkyFury 07:26, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * 105 mph/960 mb. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 10:10, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

Wow, I never expected Sandy to blow up so fast. Cuba took a hit from this storm, hopefully not too bad, but Sandy looks like a queen on the latest sattelite imagery. I&apos;d be surprised if she doesn&apos;t become a major hurricane later today. She&apos;s probrably going to parallel the eastern seaboard, but overall impacts in the northeast are not certain as of yet. The "perfect storm" never made landfall and only paralleled part of the coast before becoming a hurricane and hitting Halifax. This storm might make landfall in the lower 48, but if it does, the question is, where? Even if it doesn&apos;t, it&apos;ll be at least a severe beach erosion, surf, and wind threat because she&apos;s so big. Ryan1000 11:29, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

I am almost sure that Sandy will be upgrade to a major even one of the discussions of the NHC say she could have before landfall.what an interesting storm to track. up next are the Bahamas.Allanjeffs 12:46, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think she wasn&apos;t one when she hit, but I think she&apos;ll be upgraded to one soon either way. The Bahamas are going to get some flooding and wind damage from Sandy, but it likely won&apos;t be too severe for them, especially considering how prepared the archapelago is for hurricanes. The models are conflicting with the track of Sandy. GFS sees Sandy moving past the east coast and eventually ending up in Maine as a strong hurricane, but the Euro model sees her hitting Delaware as a monstrous hurricane and driving a massive storm surge up the Delaware river that could reach even Philadelphia. I don&apos;t like either scenario. BTW, I made a post-season changes section below if anyone thinks NHC missed anything this year. Sandy might be upgraded to a MH in post-season, if it isn&apos;t operationally. Ryan1000 14:01, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Shear is gonna progressively increase from here, so I don&apos;t think Sandy will restrengthen. It is possible, however, that it was a major hurricane before hitting Cuba. It wouldn&apos;t surprise me if it&apos;s upgraded in post analysis. And Ryan, even though the Pefect Storm never made landfall (it in fact never came within 200 miles of the coast) it still generated 30 foot waves along the Massachusetts coast and high winds. Seven people died on shore in addition to the six at sea. That&apos;s definitely something to keep in mind with Sandy as well. A northeast impact is looking increasingly likely, though she is unlikely to be tropical when that happens. The models have even shifted west a bit. -- SkyFury 15:35, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * The difference between Sandy and the perfect storm is now, I don&apos;t think sandy will completely miss land. The two most reliable models, the GFS and the Euro, both take it onshore. As I said Eric, beach erosion, rip currents, high winds and rain will definitely be felt, even though a landfall is not certain. The GFS sees Sandy making landfall in Maine several days from now as a large, powerful, storm that could combine with another system coming down from Canada to make for New England&apos;s wettest October on record. Damages could reach or exceed a billion dollars if that happens. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is flat out apocalyptic with Sandy. As I mentioned above, the Euro model takes Sandy making landfall in Delaware as a monstrous 940 mbar monster by monday. By then the tides will be at their highest in the month from the new moon and the storm surge from Sandy would be large enough to surge far up the Delaware river and could even flood Philadelphia. Damage if that happens would be several billion dollars. Granted the Euro might be overdoing Sandy&apos;s intensity, but it&apos;s not a good thing to see. I think it might end up between that, making landfall in Rhode Island or Massachusets as a large, powerful Cat 1 or TS. I don&apos;t want a landfall to happen, but the "missing the lower 48 completely" scenario is looking less and less likely with each passing advisory... Ryan1000 15:53, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * oh no!!! sandy going to ny!! like irene! :o will she be a major? she could! :( hope everyone stays safe... i think shell get retired.... replacement name shaniqua. anyone agrees?188.223.248.201 15:57, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

I&apos;m not sure if she&apos;ll be retired yet, Liz, but she&apos;s already pushed her luck far enough with the damage she&apos;s done in the Caribbean already. I would place her chances of retirement at 40% for now, based on current damage figures in Cuba and Jamacia. If it hits the U.S. hard enough, she&apos;s gone. Ryan1000 17:13, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah I think it&apos;s becoming increasingly likely that the northeast will take a direct hit from this. GFS is now showing landfall on Long Island. I still think Sandy will be extratropical by the time it hits though. This event could be very reminiscent of Irene last year, affecting tens of millions of people. This could really get ugly. -- SkyFury 22:25, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * That would be two straight years wow I think Sandy will be retire and yes almost all if not every model are showing landfall from NC to Maine looks like the Northeast will take another hit hoping for the best for them.Allanjeffs 22:48, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some news organizations are calling Sandy "Frankenstorm", lol. It&apos;ll be hitting them around Halloween, but if it comes by next Monday, then it&apos;ll be high tide and storm surge will be enormous. This storm isn&apos;t as harmless as I earlier thought it would be; this is starting to become a very scary storm. I hope we get the best case scenario out of Sandy, because she&apos;s not holding anything back. Ryan1000 23:41, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * And in other news the Gfs develop ts Valerie in 264 even though is far out it may very well develop even DR Masters say that one or two storms before the season end is possible and I agree with him I am hoping to reach William this year.Allanjeffs 23:51, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy is almost out for sure have already killed 12 in Cuba being the deadliest hurricane since Dennis of 2005 and it also has cause widespread devastation in the island so even if Sandy doesn`t make a direct landfall in the USA she will be gone.She also has killed 8 in Haiti and I think 2 in Jamaica and sadly I think the death toll will increase in the Islands as time pass.Allanjeffs 02:33, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * It seems she could be our second "S" retiree in history, and any future damage in the U.S. is likely going to seal her retirement. Retirement isn&apos;t certain as of yet, but it&apos;s getting more and more likely with increasing damage and deaths. Ryan1000 02:49, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * HPC is calling Sandy (and/or the low pressure) "Frankenstorm" too.Isaac829E-Mail 04:38, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy appears to have lost herself in the latest few sattelite pics; she&apos;s now powered down to a category 1 hurricane. She might be only a TS when she moves into the northeast, or an extratropical cyclone, but it will still be a large, powerful storm when it comes ashore and it will be a big flood and wind threat for the northeast and mid-Atlantic. Ryan1000 11:37, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it may be a re-Irene/re-1991 Perfect Storm, it&apos;s now heading towards New England, as a tropical storm, I think. This storm may be our 2nd reasonable candidate for retirement for this year, aside from Isaac, as time passes. 112.201.160.146 14:28, October 26, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy is starting to look like a non-tropical cyclone now. It&apos;s still a hurricane, but it&apos;s circulation is displaced well south of the main convection. I wouldn&apos;t be surprised if she weakens to a TS later today. NHC has her restrengthening, but makes her an extratropical cyclone before landfall. Not to say that will make her less destructive, but it will slow her down a bit. Ryan1000 16:05, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Death toll just rocketed to 38, mainly in Haiti (25). --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * IMO Sandy has a better shot of being retire than Isaac now. sadly I think the casualities would increase now the death toll is at 42.Allanjeffs 20:44, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * That makes Sandy the deadliest 2012 AHS storm. I think Sandy will be like Hurricane Hazel in 1954. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:56, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * For what is worth I told you guys that the gfs develop Valerie yesterdat and it looks like it develops it in the Caribbean and makes her a strenghtening hurricane the season may go with 20 or even 21 if William manage to form what an incredible season has been.
 * Sandy will also be coming at Halloween, so it is possible she might get more media attention, and power outages might last into November 1st, so this could be a very serious hurricane for the folks in the mid-Atlantic. To be honest, I think both Sandy and Isaac will be retired, though I do agree Sandy seems to be more likely to retire than Isaac based on current damage figures in the Caribbean, and future potential damage in the U.S. Might weaken to a TS soon though, only to possibly regain hurricane strength later on. Ryan1000 23:01, October 26, 2012 (UTC)

I don&apos;t think people realize just how bad this could be. The latest runs of the Euro and GFS, the most reliable models we have, bring Sandy into New Jersey with a 947 and 949 mb pressure respectively. That makes Irene look like chicken sh!t. Irene hit Coney Island with 55 knot winds and 965 mb pressure and still caused an 8 foot surge on parts of Long Island. The 1993 Superstorm had a 960mb pressure and brought a 12 foot surge to the relatively flat Gulf Coast. The New York area is at the apex of a nearly perfect &apos;L&apos; shaped coastline. Delaware and Chesapeake bays also act to funnel storm surge. High, lunar tides are expected right around landfall. If this forecast verifies, this storm would likely bring coastal conditions that exceed the severity of the 1993 storm along arguably the most densely populated stretch of coastline in the western Hemisphere. It could easily bring a 12-15 foot surge directly into New York Harbor. That would likely flood lower Manhattan. If it makes landfall in Maryland, like the Euro was saying earlier, it could bring a 15-18 foot surge into Delaware Bay and up the river to Philadelphia. That would probably cause the Delaware River to burst its banks, flooding Philadelphia and many other towns along the river. This is not to mention the devastation that could potentially be brought to the Jersey shore. Atlantic City, Asbury Park, and the barrier islands could see historic impacts from this storm. Now these are worst case scenarios but they are very much on the table. -- SkyFury 01:30, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy is starting to look subtropical.Isaac829E-Mail 01:56, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wouldn&apos;t want to believe the worst-case scenarios, but I can&apos;t deny the potential of mother nature. This is a pretty scary storm for something so late in the season. It&apos;s been a long time, if ever, that New England or the mid-Atlantic states have seen something like this at this time of year. I think Sandy could be a large wind and flood threat, but it&apos;s not expected to be stronger than a tropical storm at landfall. However, given Sandy&apos;s size right now, I honestly don&apos;t think it&apos;ll make a difference in the impacts. The IKE scale, which ranks the storm surge destructive potential of hurricanes, ranked Sandy a 4.2 out of 6 on the scale. And it&apos;s only a cat 1 too. The highest integrated kinetic energy of any Atlantic Hurricane comes from none other than Hurricane Ike himself of 2008, a 5.6 out of 6. This could be a severe storm for the northeast, and the fact it&apos;s coming near haloween time makes it that much more dangerous. Not as many people might leave because of the holiday, like with Cyclone Tracy when she hit Darwin on Christmas Eve 1974. Hopefully they will leave though...Sandy is only 2-3 days from landfall. Ryan1000 02:58, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sandy (2nd time)Edit
And it weakened to a TS. This probrably won&apos;t change the overall impacts very much, as I said above, but at least it&apos;s weakening. Ryan1000 12:01, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Sandy (2nd time)Edit
...And not long after I said that, latest advisory re-upgrades it to a hurricane. Ryan1000 12:18, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

She is really playing with us.Allanjeffs 13:18, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical storm watches are up for Bermuda. Also, 2012 now has more deaths than last year (117 v. 114 in 2011). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:19, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Sadly, that is true. I didn&apos;t think we would see something like this so late in the season, but we did. Sandy has a few days until she comes ashore. Hopefully everyone will have left by then. Ryan1000 14:31, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">the death toll has increase to 34 in Haiti and they say there could be more sadly making the death toll climb to 51 looks like this year has surpass 2011 in deaths that is bad.Allanjeffs 17:21, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Sandy looks really scary. Gonna go to NY on Monday, according to the ITV news report, with a British who died in the Bahamas, R.I.P. to every victim who died in Sandy, and stay safe... My relatives and friends are in Sandy (NJ and NY) and they are stocking up.... Hope they all stay safe too! I mean, Sandy is gonna get retired 70% sure atm, with the replacement name Shaniqua (HOPEFULLY!) And, I heard, according to the BBC, Sandy is dubbed "Frankenstorm!" But... here is the death toll right now, R.I.P. everyone...

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I mean... <span style="line-height: 16px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(34,34,34); font-size: small">As it turns out hurricane sandy<span style="line-height: 16px; font-family: arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(34,34,34); font-size: small"> has crabs. Just google "hurricane sandy funny" for funny photos of hurricane sandy, like Sandy Cheeks, Danny and Sandy, and Sandra Dee?!? SO STAY SAFE FROM FRANKENSTORM! :O and all I can say is.... OPPA SANDY STYLE! 188.223.248.201 17:53, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"> Got this from Huffpost on Frankenstorm:

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; color: rgb(34,34,34); font-size: 15px">The ocean will rise along the coast as Sandy makes it&apos;s way north, but the biggest coastal problems will come when the center makes landfall. We&apos;re unlikely to know exactly where that will be until Monday, but this is critical. The ocean will be pushed toward the coast north of that point and away to the south. The onshore flow of water is exaggerated where bays, inlets, or the shape of the coastline focus the water to make it rise even higher. The most prominent problem spot is New York City, where Long Island and New Jersey make an "L".

<p style="border-bottom-style: none; border-right-style: none; list-style-type: none; margin-top: 8px; font-family: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; border-top-style: none; margin-bottom: 15px; color: rgb(34,34,34); font-size: 15px; border-left-style: none; list-style-image: none">Raritan Bay and New York Bay and the south end of Manhattan are especially susceptible to rising water if the center of Sandy comes ashore in New Jersey or south. Much as we saw in Irene, it is potentially a monstrous problem due to the threat to NYC infrastructure and transportation. There are tough decisions ahead for the Mayor and his people.

<p style="border-bottom-style: none; border-right-style: none; list-style-type: none; margin-top: 8px; font-family: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; border-top-style: none; margin-bottom: 15px; color: rgb(34,34,34); font-size: 15px; border-left-style: none; list-style-image: none">Right now, the odds favor that southern track. The threat from this situation is serious as a heart attack for anybody near the rising water.

<p style="border-bottom-style: none; border-right-style: none; list-style-type: none; margin-top: 8px; font-family: Georgia, Century, Times, serif; border-top-style: none; margin-bottom: 15px; color: rgb(34,34,34); font-size: 15px; border-left-style: none; list-style-image: none">This morning, President Obama convened a call with Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Rick Knabb, and Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan to receive an update on ongoing federal actions to prepare for Hurricane Sandy as it moves toward the United States mainland. The President reiterated his direction to Administrator Fugate to ensure that federal partners continue to bring all available resources to bear to support state and local responders in potentially affected areas along the Eastern seaboard as they prepare for severe weather. FEMA continues to work closely with federal partners, including the Departments of Defense and Energy, and remains in close contact with state and local partners in potentially impacted areas. At the requests of states, FEMA is proactively deploying Incident Management Assistance Teams to multiple states up and down the Eastern seaboard to ensure they have the support they need as they prepare for the storm. FEMA is holding daily operation briefings with emergency response teams in potentially affected states, and FEMA allies are joining state and local emergency operations centers in potentially impacted areas. FEMA is also prepositioning commodities including water, meals, blankets and other resources, should they be needed, at Incident Support Bases along the East Coast.

<p style="border-bottom-style: none; border-right-style: none; list-style-type: none; margin-top: 8px; border-top-style: none; margin-bottom: 15px; border-left-style: none; list-style-image: none">Because Hurricane Sandy could produce significant precipitation over widespread areas and has the potential to cause significant power outages, FEMA continues to encourage state and local authorities responsible for coordinating with local utility companies to do so ahead of any impacts. The President reiterated his direction to his team to ensure there were no unmet needs as states continue to prepare, and to keep him updated as preparations for the storm continue.

So, what do you all think about this extra info? Im seeing Sandy Cheeks as an Irene. 188.223.248.201 17:59, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy&apos;s IKE rating for surge is now tied with Ike himself at peak strength (5.4 / 6), and the pressure is STILL dropping (it&apos;s dropped 13 mb in 20 hours), and the storm is still expanding! What&apos;s more, the core of the storm has revived itself, looking like a hurricane within a hurricane, which is exactly as the 1991 Super Storm looked when it was near peak strength ... except that Sandy is about 15 mb stronger, still intensifying with a baroclinic low and a sting jet (Wikipedia it) and it will actually make landfall in the worst track possible! 2007Astro&apos;sHurricane (talk) 18:21, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is a very scary storm. Dr. Jeff Masters said in his latest blog post that Sandy has a 20% chance of flooding the subway system of the big apple. A 20% chance! If you read on a little more, if the subway system is flooded by Sandy&apos;s storm surge, it would be terrible. Quoted from his latest blog post is this: "<span style="line-height: normal; font-family: sans-serif; color: rgb(51,51,51); font-size: 12px">If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power,"<span style="line-height: normal; font-family: sans-serif; color: rgb(51,51,51); font-size: 12px"> he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion.<span style="line-height: normal; font-family: sans-serif; color: rgb(51,51,51); font-size: 12px"> " FIFTY-FIVE BILLION!! And it was only a category one! Are you kidding me? Irene was so close to being a devastating disaster for the U.S, and Sandy may do what she never got the chance to do. If Sandy does flood New York City&apos;s subway system, she would be second only to Hurricane Katrina as the nation&apos;s costliest natural disaster. This is so unreal. I think this nightmare storm is about to become a reality very soon. I can hardly believe my eyes. Ryan1000 19:28, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Does Sandy mark ECMWF&apos;s comeback after its flops earlier this year? --HurricaneMaker99 20:25, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Geez...Sandy (Cheeks) has killed 48 people and I can see her rivaling Irene and maybe even Ike in terms of size and damage. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:24, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * I&apos;ve looked at all the reliable computer models and I am finding it harder and harder to see a scenario as to how this will not suck. This storm is pretty much doomed to decimate someplace on the east coast. My worst fear is the NYC scenario (see my above post, if you haven&apos;t already), but I don&apos;t like a Philadelphia flood either. I can only hope people are taking this more seriously than they should and get out of harm&apos;s way. They have very little time left until Sandy comes ashore early next week around Monday. Ryan1000 21:59, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Her death toll stands at 65 and 51 of them are of Haiti Sandy is likely gone now.Allanjeffs 15:22, October 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * OMG...Sandy&apos;s pressure is down to 951 mb!!! Really?! A Category 1 with a 951 mb pressure?! If Sandy can drop 5 more mbar, she&apos;ll shove Alex (2010)&apos;s fame as the strongest non-major hurricane in Atlantic history right out of his hands. Anyway, Sandy just is getting so scary. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 16:27, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 192px">IKE rating at 5.8/6.0. Highest value ever.Isaac829E-Mail 17:45, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * She is looking better she might strengh more before landfall hope the mid atlantic states are prepare.Allanjeffs 18:37, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Andrew, I assume you meant 6 mbar, right? Alex was upped a bit to 110/946 in post-season, from 105/947. Sandy might have been a major hurricane when it hit Cuba though, and I assume it had been. The New Jersy coast will take a beating from this hurricane, and even if it doesn&apos;t hit the big apple directly, making landfall near the mouth of the Delaware river still spells disaster for Philadelphia. Tropical storm force winds extend out more than half as far as they did with Typhoon Tip in 1979, at roughly 800 miles away. This storm will be very widespread and destructive, and yeah, I think Sandy&apos;s fate is all but sealed. She won&apos;t be coming back in 2018 now, I&apos;m sure of it. Ryan1000 21:43, October 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Look at THAT! Has there been anything like it since Katrina? Also, Dr. Masters now gives a 50% chance of NYC&apos;s subways being flooded. --HurricaneMaker99 01:02, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * FUUUU***...This is terrible...If New York City&apos;s subway system is flooded, it would cost more damage than what Hurricane Andrew did in 1992. Dr. Masters mentioned in his last blog post (see my above post), that if a storm flooded the subways of New York, it would cause at least 55 billion dollars in damage! The damage to property and infrastructure would be at least 10-20 billion dollars on top of that at the rate Sandy is going. It&apos;s expected to make landfall by Monday evening near central/northern New Jersey, when the tides are highest from this month&apos;s full moon. That would put Sandy&apos;s storm surge at least 1 foot higher than Irene&apos;s was last year. That puts billions of dollars of more property at risk considering how massive Sandy is and from what angle she&apos;s going to be making landfall. This is a nightmare storm. I can&apos;t believe what I&apos;m seeing. This could be one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history. The folks over there don&apos;t even have a day until Sandy will make landfall tomorrow afternoon. There better be a mandatory evacuation for NYC right now, or several people could die from this monster storm. Now is the time to start praying... Ryan1000 01:18, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * AHHH...Gale force winds extend 900 miles from the center! That makes Sandy the second biggest Atlantic hurricane system on record, behind only Hurricane Igor in 2010. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:10, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Please please PLEASE tell me you mean "across!!!" --HurricaneMaker99 01:38, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 72px">No worries...it&apos;s across... :P Isaac829E-Mail 01:44, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

This storm is so big...And pressure continues to fall too...And worst of all, it&apos;s decievingly weak. I can&apos;t believe how many people aren&apos;t taking this thing seriously on the east coast. This could rival the destruction caused by Ike, Wilma, Andrew, and even Katrina, yet there&apos;s still no mandatory evacuation out for the big apple or Philadelphia. I can&apos;t believe it&apos;s gonna happen to them...People need to understand a storm doesn&apos;t have to be very strong to be devastating. I can&apos;t imagine how bad this storm will be for the east coast. I mentioned the folks there only have one day until Sandy will come crashing ashore tomorrow...when tides reach their peak from the full moon. If they don&apos;t leave now, this storm could not only be one of the costliest disasters in U.S. history, but also one of the deadliest. This is so unreal. Ryan1000 01:47, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry for my absence this weekend. I&apos;ve been closely following the impending apocalypse (*nervous laughter*). Get ready for an essay. It&apos;s virtually impossible to compare this storm to anything. The scale of this event is unprecedented. Sandy is the dominant windflow generator all the way to the Mississippi, south through the Greater Antilles, and up as far north as Maine. It will directly affect the weather across the entire eastern third of the United States. The synoptic evolution of this thing just boggles the mind. The models show the jetstream literally picking Sandy up and throwing it into the coastline. There&apos;s an incredible amount of energy involved in something like that, and a lot of it is going to be directed at the coastline.

It has been estimated that Irene&apos;s surge fell as little as a foot short of flooding portions of the New York subway system. Irene&apos;s surge at Battery Park was 4.36 feet with a total water rise of about nine feet. According to the hurricane center&apos;s storm surge probability graphic, there is at least a 40% chance that we exceed those values by at least a foot. There is roughly a 30% chance that NE portions of NYC (closest to Long Island Sound) will see a surge greater than 10 feet. This includes the Bronx and the Upper East Side as far south as Tudor City, which is past Central Park. The record surge for New York City was 13 feet from the 1821 hurricane. In that event, Manhattan was flooded all the way to Canal Street, a full mile inland from Battery Park. I doubt we&apos;ll see a surge that high, but it gives you an idea of the kind of flooding that could take place. The SLP in Sandy right now is 950mb, equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane. As has already been mentioned, Ike had a 953mb pressure when it annihilated the Texas coast. That said, we won&apos;t see a surge anywhere near Ike&apos;s 21 feet for several reasons. For one, Ike had a substantially larger fetch and ACE value at the time of landfall. Also, the water was very shallow, providing no resistance to water rise. What concerns me most about Sandy (besides where it&apos;s hitting) is the expected duration of onshore flow. In Irene, you had the onshore flow ahead of landfall that pushed water in, but because Irene was a poleward moving storm, once it moved inland, you got strong offshore flow that helped push the water back out. Sandy, however, will be moving more east-west. That means, you will have constant onshore flow north of the storm center and constant offshore flow to the south (thus likely sparing Delaware Bay and Philadelphia), without any change in direction. Areas north of the center such as NYC, Long Island Sound, and southern New England are expected to have onshore flow for up to 12 straight hours. In NYC, water coming from Long Island Sound will be blocked by surge coming up from the south through Verrazano Narrows, leaving all that water with nowhere to go. And the water will just keep piling on for up to 12 straight hours. That sets up a potentially devastating coastal flood situation in New York City. That&apos;s what makes Sandy so scary, particularly for the NYC area. This won&apos;t be a sudden, cataclysmic surge like in Katrina or Ike. It will be a slower inundation...where the water just won&apos;t stop coming. -- SkyFury 07:54, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * It&apos;s now official, SANDY is now the LARGEST HURRICANE ever observed. It is expected to stay in the New England area until November 2. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:59, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

That&apos;s very bad for the folks in the northeast. Sandy has already been affecting the east coast with her outer Rainbands ever since last Thursday/Friday, so the coast already has seen some impacts, but it will be nothing like what will happen when Sandy makes landfall. It probrably has 12 hours or so until it will come ashore. If the folks in the northeast haven&apos;t left now, it might already be too late...New York City has shut down their stock exchanges for today and they also have ordered evacuations, but not everyone is taking this thing seriously. I hope they do NOW, because time is rapidly running out. Ryan1000 10:42, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * I told you guys that Sandy was going to strengthen and she have some hours to strengthen a little more.Everyone that is her path take care please. hoping for the better in this situation.Allanjeffs 11:40, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * 90 mph, 943 mbar. Pending post-analysis, that makes Sandy the strongest non-major hurricane on record in the ATL. --HurricaneMaker99 14:53, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * The NHC has posted a link advising folks on the east coast to get out before Sandy hits. Even if the storm doesn&apos;t hit the big apple directly, New York City will still be severely affected by Sandy. Hurricane-force winds go 175 miles away from the center, and TS winds go 375 miles out, though gale-force winds are being felt almost 1,000 miles away. There are TS warnings up as far away as Bermuda. This storm could lay much of the coastline of New Jersey, as well as many parts of New York City, to waste. Irene of 2011 was the first hurricane to hit the state since 1903. Sandy could be the second in little more than a year...The fact Sandy will be making landfall at high tide makes it that much worse. This is just surreal. Ryan1000 16:17, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Actually, Irene was downgraded to 70 mph in post-analysis, so it&apos;s still been more than a century since a hurricane last made landfall in NJ. --HurricaneMaker99 17:21, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

2pm interim advisory keeps Sandy&apos;s winds steady, but lowers the pressure to 940 mbar and speeds her up to the northwest at 28 mph. With the center of Sandy being 110 miles away from Atlantic City, NJ, she should make landfall sometime within the next 4 hours. Maybe the worst of Sandy will avoid high tide... --HurricaneMaker99 18:05, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It&apos;s got 90 mph winds (going out 175 miles), so I don&apos;t think it will matter a whole lot either way. I don&apos;t think this will miss the high tide either, which makes it worse. I&apos;m getting the feeling this might be as bad as Ike or rival Andrew even. If the folks haven&apos;t left, it&apos;s too late now...Sandy is about to come ashore, but the waves and surge are already coming onshore as we speak. I know Sandy will be severe, but I don&apos;t know how bad it will be... Ryan1000 20:21, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">This is so unreal...the Northeast will NOT have a good Halloween. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 20:58, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Sandy will probably be out of the list if not I am going to scream it already caused a lot of damaged in the Caribbean and it would at least be more costly than Irene So say bye bye Sandy.I am praying for all the ones in the NE.Allanjeffs 21:28, October 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS. Knabb and Franklin said that!--Isaac829E-Mail 22:05, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

The majority of the rainfall has actually passed inland as of now, but the back side of the hurricane is where the strongest winds are. Battery park will get hit with the worst storm surge by about 8:31 pm tonight, at about 8.8 feet or so at high tide. That&apos;s enough to go past the floodwall, flood the park, and possibly even get into the subway system of New York City. That would cost billions of dollars in damage. The center of Sandy has actually made landfall in Delaware, south of New Jersy, but that&apos;s not where the worst storm surge is. The worst storm surge is actually in several circulating windbands several hundred miles away. It&apos;s going up long island sound and approaching New York City from the east as we speak, but it&apos;ll be hitting them from the south later tonight. The worst is far from over. Ryan1000 22:45, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone SandyEdit
In the update statement.Isaac829E-Mail 23:02, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * "NHC issuing advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone SANDY" - that&amp;apos;s certainly not something you see every day! --HurricaneMaker99 23:08, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

This is insane. I&amp;apos;m in Wisconsin and there are clouds associated with Sandy right out my window. She&amp;apos;s so large...AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:07, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

Just because she&amp;apos;s post-tropical doesn&amp;apos;t mean she&amp;apos;s over with. This is where it will become very deadly. For folks in the New England, I pray. STO12 (talk) 23:12, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Awww, thank you... thing is I think the folks down in NJ (like my grandma) and NYC need more prayers than I do! --HurricaneMaker99 23:35, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * I hope everyone makes it out of Sandy okay! Yeah, Sandy Cheeks has been giving awful karate chops to the East Coast. The Bounty has sunk off the coast of North Carolina, bridges are closed all over the Northeast, and the New York Stock Exchange has been closed for two days straight!!! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:48, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Lower Manhattan is flooding right now and 12.75 feet at Battery park.Isaac829E-Mail 23:58, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * She has make landfall and now 1 fatality is report in Maryland flooding with her is excessive.Allanjeffs 00:12, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * BREAKING: MTA announces NYC subways will be closed for remainder of the week. All major lines are flooded.Also they are now 2 confirm death 1 in NY other in MD.Allanjeffs 00:45, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Power is out for most parts of Lower Manhattan. Tunnels are flooded. Streets are canals. Damage is I think &gt;$50 billion.Isaac829E-Mail 01:09, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * O.oIsaac829E-Mail 01:14, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * This little bi*** is definitely out of the list she has make a lot of damage in the US fatalities are now 5 that happen when you don`t take precautions of what the goverment says.Allanjeffs 01:31, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Just because Sandy is non-tropical doesn&amp;apos;t mean she&amp;apos;s over with at all. In fact, she&amp;apos;s only been expanding more ever since she became non-tropical. Battery Park is under 14 feet of storm surge at this moment! FOURTEEN FEET!! That surpasses the last record of 13 feet from the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane! The JFK international airport is slowly drowning at the hands of Sandy&amp;apos;s storm surge. The New York Stock Exchange and Wall Street are under at least 3 feet of water as we speak, and it&amp;apos;s STILL rising. The Subways in Queens and Manhattan are drowning under Sandy&amp;apos;s massive floodwaters. I did not expect Sandy to pack this much of a punch. At this point in time, I would actually be surprised if she&amp;apos;s not more destructive than Katrina. I am stunned at the amount of damage she&amp;apos;s wrought in New York City. And that&amp;apos;s just for them. Atlantic City, New Jersy is under 15+ feet of water and it&amp;apos;s still rising. Everything there is underwater, or going to be underwater. Hell, Sandy is causing BLIZZARD CONDITIONS in West Virginia! 2-3 feet of snow is falling there! This is the storm of the century, a nightmare that came true. I just can&amp;apos;t believe my eyes. The storm also caused significant damage in the Carolinas, Virginia, and it&amp;apos;s extending all the way through Pensylvania, Maryland, and as far north as Maine and Canada. When all is said and done, I&amp;apos;d be surprised if Sandy doesn&amp;apos;t do over 100 billion dollars in damage. This is so unreal. Ryan1000 02:07, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Remember that WTC construction sites are like mini waterfalls now.Isaac829E-Mail 02:17, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy&amp;apos;s storm surge has been inudating New York City all night long, and it&amp;apos;s still not stopping. The problem with Sandy now is that she is stalling just after she made landfall, so the right-front quadrant will keep on pushing the water inland. The Subways, Wall Street, and many other parts of the big apple are still going underwater as we speak. I don&amp;apos;t know when Sandy will stop, but this storm will have a shocking damage figure and possibly terrifying death toll when all is said and done. Ryan1000 10:29, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

The only way she would be staying aned even this I think would not saver her from retirement is if all the damage in the USA is given when she was extratropical and not tropical.Allanjeffs 12:46, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">There was a fire that broke out in Queens this morning and it&amp;apos;s already consumed over 50 homes. Also, a ship sunk off North Carolina from the southern outskirts of the storm. At least 16 people are dead from Sandy in the U.S, and that number is bound to rise. Even if sandy was partly non-tropical when it hit the U.S, damage in the Caribbean would warrant retirement anyways. Ryan1000 13:52, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

As an update, overall damages are estimated now to be at least 20 billion. So yeah, the 100% is no joke there in the retirements section. Sandy&amp;apos;s definitely getting the boot. I never knew she would be as bad as she was. Ryan1000 19:41, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Agreed, Ry. Just look at Sandy. That fire... in Queens... fortunately since people IK live in the Jamaica area, and I think that is a different area none of my relatives died, but I feel rly sorry for those that did.
 * Now... someone made a "Hurricane sandy" twitter account and stuff like this came on:
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(17,34,51); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none">@AHurricaneSandy: YOBTECO. you only blow the east coast once.
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(17,34,51); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none">@AHurricaneSandy: 2 STORMZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. #FRANKENSTORM.
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(17,34,51); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none">@AHurricaneSandy: OPPA HURRICANE STYLE.
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(17,34,51); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none">And trying to say that Hurricane Sandy is like Snooki from Jersey Shore and Lindsay Lohan trying to rename her as "Hurricane Sassy?!?"
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(17,34,51); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none">Lol....? And with everyone (including me) making Spongebob memes on Memegenerator?
 * <span style="line-height: normal; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; color: rgb(17,34,51); -webkit-text-size-adjust: none">Sandy will never be forgotten. 188.223.248.201 23:47, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

I guess that&amp;apos;s the farewell for this storm. Damage was likely much higher than 20 billion, but total damage will take a while to calculate. Ryan1000 23:56, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Last advisory by HPC. Isaac829E-Mail 11:19, October 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Damage totals now at $25 billion. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:59, October 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Overall damage is likely over 50 billion. This is probrably going to be the second costliest, or costliest, disaster in U.S. history. Ryan1000 16:09, October 31, 2012 (UTC)