Forum:2019-20 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

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96S.INVEST
Interesting. Tropical Tidbits is showing that there is a new invest in the SWIO. Not yet on JTWC's page though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:01, July 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gone from JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:49, July 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually, MFR did track this as Zone of Disturbed Weather 01. --'' Java Hurricane  02:52, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits. Models take this into Madagascar as a C3/4. -- Java Hurricane  00:32, November 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC. Hopefully won't be bad for Madagascar if it hits, but I hope future Ambali would remain at sea, especially if it is expected to become a strong one. Would be a big season opener though if it becomes a Cat 3 or 4. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:15, November 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Also code orange, "moderate" chance according to TCWC Reunion. This could potentially be significant IMO. ~  Steve 🦃   Happy  Thanksgiving!  👪  17:23, November 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * No changes to the outlook since a few days ago. Still seems pretty likely to develop though, and might be "Ambali" by mid-week or so. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:27, December 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code orange on JTWC and code red on TCWC Reunion's outlook. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:43, December 2, 2019 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather 02
Upgraded to a ZoDW per TCWC Reunion. Still code orange per JTWC. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:55, December 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 02
Upgraded to a tropical disturbance and is now code red on JTWC, with a TCFA issued. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:57, December 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently 30 mph (25 knots)/1004 mbar per Reunion and expected to intensify to a 60 knot (70 mph) Severe Tropical Storm before hitting Madagascar. The race for Ambali is on between this and TD 03, the loser gets "Belna". ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:21, December 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 02
This is actually 02S, and is now upgraded to a tropical depression. Likely to become Belna later on and may strike Madagascar as a weakening system. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:55, December 5, 2019 (UTC)

Now a JTWC TS. Forecast to reach 70 kt. -- Java Hurricane  00:47, December 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently 35 mph (30 knots)/1000 mbar per TCWC Reunion and 45 mph (40 knots) per JTWC. I expect it to become Belna later today or tonight. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:34, December 5, 2019 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Belna
Now a tropical storm, 65 mph (55 knots) per JTWC and 45 mph (40 knots)/998 mbar per Reunion. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:26, December 6, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Belna
Upgraded to a STS, 60 mph (50 knots)/992 mbar per MFR. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:18, December 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nearing "Tropical Cyclone" intensity, 70 mph (60 knots)/985 mbar per MFR. Also 75 mph (65 knots) per JTWC. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:25, December 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pressure down a bit to 982 mbar but still the same windspeed per MFR. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:28, December 7, 2019 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
Another invest, this is to the east of the ZoDW. Currently code orange on TCWC Reunion's outlook. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:55, December 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow per JTWC. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:00, December 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03
Upgraded to a tropical depression by TCWC Reunion. Like 91S, this is also code red on JTWC now, another TCFA has been issued too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:57, December 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * If it continues intensifying at this pace, it looks more likely to be "Ambali". Currently 35 mph (30 knots)/999 mbar per Reunion and expected to quickly intensify to a Severe Tropical Storm before weakening as it poses no threat to land. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:24, December 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a JTWC storm. -- Java Hurricane  00:46, December 5, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Ambali
And this one became Ambali. Now an STS and already a C1 on the SSHWS. Currently 60 mph (95 kph)/990 mbars. By the way, this is actually 03S, not 02S. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:54, December 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow this is intensifying quickly. Now 60 mph (50 knots)/990 mbar per Reunion and 80 mph (70 knots) per JTWC. The latter expects this to become a 115 mph (100 knot) beast very soon before weakening begins. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:37, December 5, 2019 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Ambali
This is BOMBING OUT! A well-defined eye is now visible and it's now 115 mph (100 knots) per JTWC and 105 mph (90 knots)/962 mbar per Reunion. JTWC now forecasts a powerful 150 mph (130 knot) beast. I can't believe how quickly this has been intensifying... 😮 ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:23, December 6, 2019 (UTC)

Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Ambali
Soon after I wrote that, it has intensified even more. Now a VITC, the first since Fantala in 2016, with winds of 140 mph (120 knots) and a pressure of 930 mbar according to TCWC Reunion. Even the record-active year last year couldn't produce a storm as powerful as this. I have no words anymore... 😮 ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:13, December 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 155 mph (135 knots) per JTWC. Hopefully this will be Ambali's peak intensity. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:16, December 6, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently so, and thankfully it's well away from land at this intensity, though it might eventually end up in Mauritius or Reunion as a tropical storm. Also, according to the JTWC, Ambali's winds increased a whopping 115 mph in 24 hours, which is the fastest intensification by windspeed in a 24 hour time period in the southern hemisphere since 1980. For comparison, the almighty Patricia in the EPac had a 120 mph increase in that same time period from October 22-23 in 2015. Ryan1000 07:28, December 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * The JTWC botched the intensity up. It was a Category 5 at 0Z, but they held their estimate at 135 kt. --'' Java Hurricane  07:29, December 6, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Ambali
It's now weakening quite rapidly as well. Down to 90 mph (80 knots)/968 mbar per MFR and 105 mph (90 knots) per JTWC. It was fun while it lasted though. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:23, December 6, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Ambali (2nd time)
Back down to STS intensity according to MFR - 70 mph (60 knots)/980 mbar. Expected to die out by Monday. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:25, December 7, 2019 (UTC)