Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season

October
New month has began, but Typhoon-Land is quiet for the time being. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:19, October 1, 2017 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
New invest in the Philippine Sea that's up on Tropical Tidbits & NRL, but not on JTWC. Models seem to take it into the Philippines and southern Vietnam but there's not much intensity support (yet). Probably another invest that will fail to develop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:56, October 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dead ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
Another one in the Philippine Sea. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Low chance according to JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:08, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now medium chance and moving into the upper Philippines. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Dead. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:05, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
Located near Pohnpei ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:07, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * On JTWC with a low chance. This could be something significant, but only time will tell. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Medium chance. I have a bad feeling... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nevermind, it's off JTWC. Maybe still could become something in the long run, but I kinda doubt it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Yet another invest (with a medium chance on JTWC). It's very close to 95W - they are both near the upper Philippines. This basin is receiving a triple threat... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
JMA has declared it a TD. It might be a weak Khanun moving through the South China Sea. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * That basin is not being viewed right now due to Nate in the Atlantic basin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:45, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * It seems that Atlantic is really stealing all the attention this year... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:50, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * That's true but I like to give near-equal attention to all basins that are producing activity. So thus I'm still paying an ounce of attention to this basin while the Atlantic is busy with Nate and a system near the Azores. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued as it moves through the South China Sea. This could be a repeat of 22W (Nando). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 23W
Now JTWC has it up as a TD. Forecast to briefly become a TS (or possibly be named "Khanun") while taking a similar path to last month's 22W. But unlike 22W, it is not forecast to pass through Hainan and will instead pass a bit south of it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:40, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone 23W
Unfortunately, it didn't strengthen to a TS. It made landfall and dissipated. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:37, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, it fortunately didn't become a TS. If it did, much more fatalities would've occurred. The death toll from this awful storm is at 58. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:10, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
New invest in the open Pacific Medium chance of development as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Odette
Now named Odette by PAGASA. Recognized by JMA as a TD. Still an invest per JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:01, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Khanun seems likely to form from this or the below invest. The WPac is kicking up again. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:48, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * TCFA issued. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:26, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette)
Now a TS according to JMA & JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:03, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's currently passing through the very northern Philippines as a weak TS. This is forecast to be yet another South China Sea storm. But this time, it could be a formidable typhoon. Hainan and Vietnam should prepare, yet again. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * In the South China Sea and 50 mph (10-min)/985 mbars. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:24, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette)
Now an STS. Khanun will probably become a typhoon. T G  2 0 1 7 11:07, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Khanun (Odette)
C2-equivalent as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:53, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Yet another invest. Currently west of Invest 98W and east of the Philippines. Low chance of formation (per JTWC) as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off of JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
Another one up on Tropical Tidbits. This seems to have quite a bit of model support in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:54, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Medium chance of development now. This may turn out to be a big storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:59, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * 91W quite honestly scares me. It's got all that ocean in its path & all that model support...~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:27, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * And here comes the first storm to ravage the Philippines this season. I thought we were going to get one earlier, but I guess Lan will be the first C4/C5 typhoon hit them. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:09, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * High chance of development now. The Pacific is now picking up... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Now a TD according to JMA. JTWC still considers this as an invest, but not for long. This is shaping up to be a scary storm in the coming days. EDIT: Oops, this still an invest; JMA still doesn't count this as a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:51, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
Located just north of the island of Yap. Doesn't have as much model support as 91W. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:31, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dead ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:27, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 92W)
Seems that this formed somehow. JMA now considers this as a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:00, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. T G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++ , A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5  )

International names:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 80% - Nanmadol caused more damage and caused the same amount of fatalities as Typhoon Nabi did, and it got retired. Yes, other storms that struck Japan like Talas didn't cause as much damage but caused more fatalities. When it comes to Japan, damage is the key factor for retirement.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#049">15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : Grade: <font color="#049">A+++++ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - From a Category 1 minimal typhoon to a Category 5 super typhoon. It didn't seem possible to me, but it happened. Best storm I have ever witnessed. Unfortunately, two fatalities occurred, but that isn't enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: 40% - Sonca struck Indochina very hard for being so weak. Due to Sonca's slow movement, 30-40+ deaths have been reported in that region. Sonca also caused some of the worst flooding in Thailand in years. Due to those statistics, there is a moderate chance of Sonca being retired, but due to Thailand's track record, it is likely that Sonca won't be retired.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - Nesat was a very minimal typhoon that struck Taiwan, and didn't do much damage.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Caused some damage in Taiwan and China after Nesat did, increasing damage totals in Taiwan from both storms.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Nalgae failed to meet the forecast peak intensity. Nalgae didn't affect any land, so Nalgae will be back in 2022-2024.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : Grade: <font color="#FC0">C- Retirement: 0% - Failed to meet all forecasts and also managed to become the first ever Typhoon Banyan, resulting in a grade higher than a D+. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 14:06, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Hato : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 90% - Hato was the worst storm in half a century for Macau. That will most likely make Hato leave the lists, but then again it's China.  T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ccffff">Pakhar : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - We'll see what happens in Macau, as it just got whiplashed by Hato. Otherwise, Hato was a very pathetic storm. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:10, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffe775">Sanvu : Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Sanvu defied a few of the first forecasts for the storm, which was cool. Sanvu unfortunately killed someone in the Mariana Islands, but that won't get Sanvu retired.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Mawar : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Another Pakhar.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Guchol : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Unfortunately, my two favorite names were used for crappy, pathetic storms this year. This pulled a Roke-esque fail (my first favorite name), and took the same path as Hato, Pakhar, and Mawar all over again. Tbh, these South China Sea storms are very boring this year. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:06, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Talim : Grade: <font color="#CF0">B Retirement: 30% - Talim was a very powerful typhoon, obviously, and struck Japan after weakening some. Two are dead, and flooding was very significant, which could prompt a slight chance of this storm's retirement.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Doksuri : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 70% - Although Indochina has a bad track record when it comes to retirements, this storm stood out. Doksuri is one of the more costlier storms in recent history for Vietnam, and with 112 people missing (and feared dead), Doksuri could be off the lists after this season. This storm was similar to Hato in ways, as it became the costliest storm in about a 10-25 year period of time. For Doksuri, there is still a 30% chance that the storm could not be retired because of storms like Lekima (2007) and Kammuri (2002).

PAGASA names:
 * All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

Final retirements:
 * Retired (81-100%): Hato
 * Maybe retired (40-79%): Nanmadol, Sonca, Doksuri
 * Honorable mentions (20-39%): None
 * Not retired (≤19%): All others T  G  2 0 1 7 21:14, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
50% or more=italics

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , 7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#330000">99% , 100% , <font color="0000FF">TBA  )

(Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A++ , <font color="#00CC66">A+ , A , <font color="00FFCC">A- , B+ , <font color="00CCFF">B , <font color="#0099FF">B- , C+ , <font color="3333CC">C , C- , <font color="99CC66">D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z ) Note: The grading will come in December.

Here goes nothing...

International PAGASA That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:04, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

JMA names

 * Muifa - 0% - see you again in 5-7 years.
 * Merbok - 0% - same as above.
 * Nanmadol - 35% - if Nabi '05 got retired for causing similar death toll and cost of damage (30+ fatalities and nearly $1 billion damage), it is likely that Nanmadol may be retired. However, Talas '11 did not get retired, so I am doubtful if Nanmadol gets retired.
 * Talas - 10% - damaging, but Vietnam and the rest of Indochina has seen worse. (Also, its 2011 incarnation was more notable than this one.)
 * Noru - 8% - one of the best storms of the season. 2 deaths so far, damage still unknown, but uonestly Japan has seen worse. (Nanmadol '17 was even worse)
 * Kulap - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Roke - 5% - made impact, but not quite notable.
 * Sonca - 15% - see Talas. (Plus the fact that the retirement record of Indochina countries are not that good.)
 * Nesat - 20% - made impact too, and the damage totals are not yet fully reported. Its 2011 incarnation, just like Talas, was more significant in terms of impact. China has seen worse though.
 * Haitang - 10% - same with Nesat, although much weaker.
 * Nalgae - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Banyan - TBA - still active.

PAGASA names

 * Auring to Fabian: 0%. No, just no. See y'all in 2021
 * Gorio: 15%. Notable, but the Philippines had seen worse episodes of the enhanced SW monsoon. Maring '13 (Trami '13) wasn't retired, so why retire Gorio?
 * Huaning: 0%. Little impact to the Philippines.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, August 11, 2017 (UTC).

Retirements from Steve
Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.
 * International: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all storms excluding PAGASA storms.
 * PAGASA: Same as above, except for storms in the PAGASA area of responsibility.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly. International=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#A00">Z - Affected the Caroline Islands, but without damage/deaths. It lasted a week, which prevents me from giving this my worst grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#F80">D+ - South China has been through much worse, so don't expect a retirement here.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F50">D - Has a pretty decent chance at retirement due to the damage and deaths it caused in Japan.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#F50">D - Retirement is doubtful. Its 2011 incarnation has done much worse.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#006">A+++(x∞)  - One of the most awesome storms I have ever seen, becoming the 3rd longest lasting WPac storm on record as well as really unexpectedly becoming a C5 super typhoon during an explosive intensification stunt. 2 reported deaths, but damage should not be too bad.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F20">D- - A weakling, but defied forecasts and lasted for a week. This gives it a barely passing grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#F00">F - Although a failure, it reached a low pressure for a 40 mph storm as well as caused some impacts and deaths. Not as destructive as Talas though, but more deadly. The deaths and damage from flooding (including from Thailand's worst flash floods in years) could give this a slight shot at retirement. Indochina's retirement record is not that great however.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#A00">Z - Pathetic failure, but brought rain to land and lasted two days. Also rose the HKO typhoon warning signal to 8.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#FF0">C - Not much damage caused, but sadly 2 deaths.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#F00">F - Weak, but 50 mph/985 mbars make it avoid the Z classifications. Caused more damage in the region Nesat hit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : <font color="#779">~0%  ,  <font color="#F00">F  - Weak fishie that was quite pathetic.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#8F0">C+  - Became a C2-equivalent, but had potential to get stronger.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Hato : <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#0B3">B  - RI'd to exceed all predictions, but was very destructive. As one of the worst storms in Macau's recent history, 26 fatalities and a whooping $2.89 billion in damage could make this leave the lists. Usagi, which struck a similar location, was even worse, but that was snubbed. So a small chance exists that this could also be snubbed (hope not). Macau was only barely affected by Usagi, though.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Pakhar : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#F50">D  - Failed to meet initial forecasted intensity (but still became a STS). 8 deaths and $49 million isn't enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Sanvu : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Mostly a fishspinner, but affected the Mariana Islands and caused a 33-year old woman to drown.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Mawar : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#F50">D - No damage or deaths (so far). Let's hope it stays that way.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Guchol : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) - Slightly affected land like Mawar did, with no damage/deaths. But this was an epic fail, waste of a good name.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Talim : <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#00F">A+ - Caused some record 24-hour rainfall and caused hundreds of thousands to evacuate. This could have a slight retirement chance IMO. The chance could increase pending release of damage totals.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Doksuri : <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Considered to be the "most powerful storm in a decade" for Vietnam. 11 were killed, and Vietnam was seriously impacted. The region doesn't have a great retirement track record however.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



PAGASA=


 * All names: <font color="#888">0% - None meet the requirements yet.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are the only percentages used in this basin. Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



In summary...= Certainly Retired: Hato

Likely Retired: Nanmadol, Doksuri

Possibly Retired: None

Probably Not Retired: Merbok, Talas, Noru, Sonca, Nesat, Talim

Not Retired: Muifa, Kulap, Roke, Haitang, Nalgae, Banyan, Pakhar, Sanvu, Mawar, Guchol, all PAGASA storms that have formed so far

Projected retirement chances for currently active storms (could always change as time goes on):


 * Khanun - Possibly Retired

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-85%
 * "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
 * "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
 * "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

Other Info= ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:19, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
 * This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The color for the ≥185 mph C5 is made up and not part of the official color classification.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Might as well make some calls:

JMA names: PAGASA Names: Ryan1000 22:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Muifa - 1% - Only minor effects to some islands in the WPac. It'll be back in ~6 years.
 * Merbok - 6% - Caused some damage to southern China but they've snubbed worse storms than this.
 * Nanmadol - 40% - Somewhat notable storm for Japan, though I'm not sure if this'll be retired. They did snub a few storms that were worse, but we'll see.
 * Talas - 5% - Wasn't too bad for Vietnam.
 * Noru - 25% - Temporary percentage; currently the damage isn't known yet, but fortunately the death toll is low, even lower than Nanmadol.
 * Kulap - 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Sonca - 5% - Not much different from Talas.
 * Roke - 1% - Even less than Merbok, and that's not going either.
 * Nesat - 5% - Caused some damage to Taiwan and China but they've seen much worse and it's not going.
 * Haitang - 1% - Caused some damage, but again, it's not enough.
 * Nalgae - 0% - See Kulap.
 * Banyan - 0% - Brought waves to Wake Island, but no damage or deaths were reported.
 * Hato - 70% - Don't want to be too generous since China has snubbed some destructive, billion-dollar storms before, but Hato did almost 3 billion dollars in damage to the area around Hong Kong and killed 26, so I believe chances are in favor of Hato going.
 * Pakhar - 7% - Caused minor impacts to southern China, but Hato was much worse.
 * Sanvu - 1% - Killed a person, but that's it.
 * Mawar - 1% - Minor effects in China.
 * Guchol - 1% - ^^
 * Talim - ?? - Still active, but taking aim at southern Japan.
 * Doksuri - ?? - Still active, but taking aim at northern Vietnam/southern China.
 * All names - 0% - So far, no storm has met their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities, so nothing's getting retired from PAGASA yet.

Replacement names
-Nanmadol replacement options- Since Nanmadol is a landmark in Micronesia, here are some replacement options:
 * Sawarlap - A waterfall in Micronesia
 * Sawartik - The twin waterfall of Sawarlap
 * Winipat - A mountain
 * Lelu - Ruins in Micronesia (Best in my opinion)

-Hato replacement options- Since Hato is a name of a constellation (Columba):
 * Tori - bird-of-paradise/Apus
 * Okami - wolf/Lupus (My favorite)
 * Kitsune - fox/Vulpecula

I do know that it is much harder to figure out the replacement names of a WPac storm, but I tried to think of the best options. Tell me which one is your favorite. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:40, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Forgot to add here, but my best picks would either be Sawartik or Lelu for Nanmadol. For Hato, I would choose Tori or Okami. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:43, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unlike replacement names in other basins, guessing the replacement names of retired JMA names is almost impossible since they don't have to start with the retiree's first letter, or be Human/English names. But it's a good idea to look at the country affected to get an idea of what names could replace the name in question. I'll pick Lelu and Okami out of those names, but there are many more possibilities. Ryan1000 00:55, September 14, 2017 (UTC)