Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season

01W.AURING
Formed on January 7, named Auring by PAGASA, and just dissipated earlier today. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:56, January 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Crising
Formed on April 13 over Palau. Was named recently by PAGASA and was recently numbered by JMA. Expected to make landfall in the Philippines sooner or later. 70.190.5.175 02:01, April 15, 2017 (UTC)

Made landfall in the Philippines. 70.190.5.175 16:49, April 15, 2017 (UTC)

Right now it's in the South China Sea heading northeast, and has a decent chance of regeneration before the westerlies kick in. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:08, April 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Muifa
It formed on April 23. It was just upgraded into a tropical storm and was named. :) 70.190.5.175 01:37, April 26, 2017 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
The system moved off of the Philippines. The JTWC upgraded the system as high. The system would most likely form tomorrow. :) 70.190.5.175 23:55, June 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok
The system then intensified into a TD and then to a TS moments after, thus it is named. :) 70.190.5.175 16:59, June 11, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Merbok
It was upgraded into a STS making it the strongest storm of the basin so far. :) 70.190.5.175 16:34, June 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is forecasted to make landfall later on today. :)  70.190.5.175  17:04, June 12, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Merbok
Made landfall and dissipated over China. :) 70.190.5.175 01:59, June 14, 2017 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
As Cindy's remnants dissipate in the Atlantic and 93E nears tropical depression status in the Eastern Pacific, an invest has blossomed in the West Pacific. Invest 97W already has a slightly elongated closed circulation and is developing an increasing amount of convection. Given that the invest is in an environment of low shear and SSTs exceeding 30°C, I will not be surprised if it is already a tropical storm at this time tomorrow. Winds are currently at around 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, with a pressure of approximately 1007 mbar (hPa). Chances of formation are currently high for the next 24 hours, and the JTWC has issued a TCFA. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:31, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * 97W is about a hundred miles away from Guam and it will impact them. It will be a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. :) 70.190.5.175 17:14, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure, 70.190. Shear has increased around Invest 97W, and its organization has decreased. Because of this, the TCFA has been cancelled and the JTWC has lowered the invest's chances of formation to medium for the next 24 hours. Also, the pressure has increased to 1008 mbar (hPa). While SSTs are still over 30°C and it is still plausible that Invest 97W may become a tropical cyclone, it may now take longer for development to occur. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:43, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, it looks like our next tropical cyclone will have to wait. Increased shear and a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which can inhibit tropical cyclone formation, have both attacked Invest 97W. Models are no longer forecasting any development, and as the shear surrounding the invest is quite high, the system is likely to dissipate within the next 48 hours. The JTWC has consequently lowered Invest 97W's intensity to 10 to 15 knots (1-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1009 mbar (hPa), and the system's chances of formation to low within the next 24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:10, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Invest 97W is still active and it's at low since yesterday. I was expecting it to dissipate but surprisingly, it keeps on going. :) 70.190.5.175 16:49, June 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * It dissipated. :)  70.190.5.175  16:42, June 28, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Looks like we got another system in the West Pacific. 98W is a few hundred miles southeast from the Philippines. The system's chance of formation is at low within 24 hours. :) 70.190.5.175 16:42, June 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * And it dissipated. :) 70.190.5.175 16:22, June 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Um, no it is a TD now but hasn't been designated as 05W yet. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:56, June 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh, well it isn't on the JTWC and JMA but it's on the Wikipedia. Oops, false alarm. :) 70.190.5.175 02:51, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
70.190, based on your comment above and the coordinates of the systems in the JMA TWO, I will assume that Invest 98W is what the JMA is currently classifying as a tropical depression. Winds are currently below 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa). However, they state that this depression is near 30°N and 130°E, which would place it closer to Japan than the Philippines. Regardless, I would not expect any further development from this system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:07, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of the JMA Tropical Depression
That depression dissipated (for real this time). :) 70.190.5.175 21:12, July 1, 2017 (UTC)

July
Similar to the Atlantic and EPAC forums, I will commence this section a little early. Please add storms as they form. :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:31, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
And yet we have another invest that is about hundreds miles away from the Philippines. The system's chance of formation is at medium within 24 hours or so. :) 70.190.5.175 03:00, June 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * I initially thought that this system was the one that the JMA was classifying as a tropical depression, until I saw otherwise. As for Invest 99W, it has consolidated incredibly quickly, and will also have the advantages of low shear below 10 knots and SSTs over 30°C. However, similar to Invest 97W, 99W is also fighting the effects of a TUTT cell per the JTWC TWO, and most models are not forecasting any major development. For all we know, this invest could simply end up suffering Invest 97W's fate in spite of otherwise favorable conditions. Nevertheless, I would love for the West Pacific to produce another tropical storm; things have been rather quiet over here since Nock-ten last December. Intensitywise, 99W's winds are estimated to be approximately 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute), with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:14, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression
It is now a TD according to JMA  and the JTWC has issued a  Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on the system.  :)  70.190.5.175  21:31, July 1, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nanmadol
Now a TS; it's also named Emong by PAGASA. It's forecasted to make landfall in Japan. image :) 70.190.5.175 04:22, July 2, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol
Upgraded to a STS. Now 60 mph/990 mbar. updated image :) 70.190.5.175 22:31, July 2, 2017 (UTC) Also, where's everybody? :/


 * Also it ties Merbok for the strongest storm in the WPAC. Now Japan will get wrecked by that storm. :) 70.190.5.175 23:04, July 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * And Nanmadol intensifies to 65 mph/985 mbar. It becomes the strongest storm of the season so far. Also, the forecast track is southerner(?) than last time. image :) 70.190.5.175 16:07, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It will make landfall in less than 12 hours. :) 70.190.5.175 16:14, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is now making landfall in Japan. It will dissipate within a day. :) 70.190.5.175 01:31, July 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * We don't seem to pay as much attention to the WPac as the Atlantic or EPac, but if a strong super typhoon forms and threatens land, I'll be here posting about it. Though we haven't seen one thus far this year, the WPac almost always produces at least one cat 5 in a season. Ryan1000 15:31, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nanmadol
Gone. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:49, July 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also it killed about 30 people. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:23, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is a very good candidate for retirement this year. Almost $1 billion in damages was caused, which makes Nanmadol one of the costliest non-typhoons to strike Japan. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:33, July 27, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
A new one has formed, to the south of Okinotorishima. Ryan1000 15:31, July 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's currently at 35 mph/1010 mbar. The JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on that. May be named Talas. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:44, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Never mind about that, JTWC stopped issuing the TCFA on that and put it into medium. Still the same wind speed and pressure. Hi!-70.190.5.175 02:46, July 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dissipated. Hi!-70.190.5.175 15:52, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
70.190, you're missing out on some fun! The JMA has begun to track a tropical depression near Iwo Jima. They report winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa). Also, the JTWC is noticing the increasing convection in Invest 93W, as well as the overall favorable environment. Unfortunately, despite SSTs of 29°C and enhancing poleward outflow, both dry air and the invest's increasing latitude will likely prevent any significant intensification. Also, the JTWC notes that no major models foresee 93W's development, although this may be a consequence of the system's hybrid nature. For the time being, the invest has winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, as well as a medium chance of formation over the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:52, July 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sorry, it's because I was focusing in the East Pacific mostly. Anyway, Invest 93W (from JTWC) is hundreds of miles away from Japan. (That's all that I can say.) Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:32, July 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now it's down to a low chance of formation. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:45, July 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * It dissipated. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:22, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh, it's currently active to this date. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:19, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * 70.190, although the JTWC stopped tracking this depression on July 14, the JMA, which is the official RSMC of this basin, has still been monitoring it. This explains why the depression is "still active". Nevertheless, I do not expect the system to last much longer, as it is already quite far north and to the east of Japan and facing decreasing SSTs. I could not find a wind reading from the JMA's tropical weather discussion, but they report that the depression's current pressure is 1012 mbar (hPa). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:58, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * It dissipated. (For real again) Hi!-70.190.5.175 17:13, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
Another invest, 94W, is located to the southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam. This system appears more disorganized than 93W, as the circulation is quite broad and most convection is displaced to the south of the center. The invest is in an overall favorable environment, with low to moderate shear, SSTs of 29-30°C, and weak upper-level (cold-core) outflow. Moreover, the system's proximity to Vietnam handicaps any significant intensification, and will likely not strengthen beyond tropical storm status if classified. Winds are currently approximately 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa) and a low chance of formation over the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:52, July 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now it has a  medium  chance of formation. Hi!- 70.190.5.175  01:22, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Talas
Now named, the forecast track shows that it will be heading west to hit China. Image Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:19, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now a Tropical Storm for 1-min mean. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:20, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Whoa! While I do admit that the JTWC did acknowledge the rather favorable conditions ahead of Invest 94W and that I was expecting something out of this system, this is already beyond my predictions! Talas is already at 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. Although they do not forecast any additional intensification from Talas, I will not be surprised if this system manages to become a severe tropical storm before landfall over Vietnam. On the other hand, the JTWC, which is currently reporting an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) with gusts of 45 knots (50 mph), forecasts Talas to steadily intensify to 50 knots (60 mph) (1-minute sustained) before landfall, which they now predict will happen over Vietnam. Even though, as the JTWC observes, the storm's circulation is south enough from Hainan Island that land interaction from there should not affect the system, both shear and a TUTT cell will likely impede any significant intensification. The people of China and Southeast Asia should be grateful that Talas formed as close to Vietnam as it did. While these regions may still endure a noticeable impact from this storm, if it had formed further east, they might have been witnessing a powerful typhoon crashing down on their shores. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:14, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * The JTWC has raised Talas's winds to 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Their forecast predictions and logic remain the same, with landfall in Vietnam now expected in approximately 12 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:18, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Talas
Now upgraded to a STS with 60 mph winds and 990 mbar pressure. Hi!-70.190.5.175 17:10, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Talas is bearing down on Vietnam. The JTWC is also reporting winds to 50 knots (60 mph) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 65 knots (75 mph). Both the JMA and JTWC forecast Talas's landfall within the next six to twelve hours, followed by dissipation over Indochina in approximately 24 hours. Already, as the tweet cited in this article reports, Talas is threatening northeastern Vietnam and southern China with heavy precipitation. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:04, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Talas (2nd time)
Talas is now making landfall in Vietnam, expect to dissipate within a day. JTWC issued its final warning on that system. It weakened to a TS (according to JMA); 50 mph (10-min)/990 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:19, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Talas
Now downgraded into a remnant low. As for now, there is only one death. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:22, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, Talas was quite an eventful storm for some regions of Vietnam and China. There have been multiple reports of stranded tourists and bus passengers, as well as widespread flooding, in both countries. In addition, it appears that a boat sank in Vietnamese waters. Thus far, 14 fatalities and 125 billion Vietnamese đồng ($5.5 million (2017 USD)) in losses have been reported, which will probably increase as the extent of impact from Talas becomes clearer. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:20, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Noru
In the midst of the parade of storms in the EPAC, a new tropical storm has sprouted in the Western Pacific. Noru, the fifth of the season, currently has winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. They expect the storm to gradually intensify to 50 knots (60 mph)/992 mbar (hPa) as it moves westwards. Meanwhile, the JTWC, which has designated Noru Tropical Depression 07W, with winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 40 knots (50 mph). Given that there will be favorable conditions such as low shear and SSTs of approximately 30°C in Noru's projected path, the JTWC expects intensification to 65 knots (75 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 80 knots (90 mph). Additionally, they mention the probability of Noru undergoing a Fujiwhara interaction with the JMA tropical depression below. If this occurs, this storm will move rather erratically around the other depression before the jet stream carries the former away. Alternatively, the JTWC note that Noru and the JMA tropical depression may never interact. In that case, the former will recurve northeast due to the jet stream. Regardless, it will be cool to witness this Fujiwhara, especially on the heels of the interaction between Greg and Tropical Depression Eight-E in the Eastern Pacific. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:20, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * JTWC still has Noru as a TD. Ten-minute winds are at 40 mph (65 kph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:18, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * I think this is the one the GFS says will become an 873 millibar behemoth on July 30th for some reason. I don't think it's gonna happen. How can there be a sub-880 millibar category 5 around 30 degrees N in the West Pacifiic? I've never heard of one.
 * Link to this insane forecast model run.
 * Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:45, July 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now JTWC upgraded Noru as a TS. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:58, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * IbAHan, I highly doubt that Noru will become that strong, especially when considering its potential Fujiwhara with Kulap. Regarding Noru, the JMA is still reporting the same intensity as my last post, but they now forecast the storm to become a typhoon with winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa). The JTWC is reporting winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph), and they expect intensification to 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute), with gusts of 85 knots (100 mph). Motionwise, both agencies forecast Noru to move generally westwards for the next three days. Afterwards, both a low pressure system (probably the active JMA tropical depression or Invest 99W below) and Kulap will cause Noru to move erratically around the latter, as well as induce rapid weakening. However, it sure would be nice to see a typhoon in the WPAC; the only other time that no typhoons had occurred by this date was 1998! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:03, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru continues to organize and intensify. It is also rivaling Kulap (and Roke) in intensity; the JMA estimates that Noru has winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa). They now expect this storm to become fairly strong - 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute) /955 mbar (hPa) is the new forecast peak. The JTWC is also estimating winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained) as well, with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph). Given the favorable shear and outflow ahead of Noru, the latter agency prognosticates that this storm will attain winds of 75 knots (85 mph) (1-minute) and gusts of 90 knots (105 mph). Also, the JTWC observes that the forecast models now unanimously foresee some interaction between Noru and Kulap, which will weaken both systems later on in the forecast period. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:34, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Noru
It's upgraded into a STS, now at 60 mph  (10-min)  / 992 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:31, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Noru
Yep, it's now a typhoon — at least in JMA standards. Still a TS on (the actually unofficial) JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:53, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at a Category 2 Typhoon on 1-min mean. Hi!-70.190.5.175 15:40, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru has intensified rather quickly! It is already the season's strongest storm! Maybe GFS was on to something with their wild prediction (although I still doubt that the typhoon will become that strong) ! The JMA is currently estimating winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa). They expect Noru to reach winds of 85 knots (10-minute) over the next few days, with a pressure of 950 mbar (hPa). The JTWC is specifically reporting winds of 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute sustained) , with gusts of 105 knots (120 mph). As various ridges cause Noru to possibly execute an erractic path over the open Pacific, low shear and warm SSTs should prompt continued intensification. For now, the JTWC forecasts the typhoon to attain winds of 110 knots (120 mph) (1-minute) , with gusts of 135 knots (155 mph). Afterwards, the anticipated interaction between Noru and Kulap will cause the former to enter a region of dry air and increased shear, consequently prompting gradual weakening. Also, for trivia, Noru is the second-latest first typhoon on record in the WPAC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:56, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru has suddenly began to weaken, however, the forecast still shows some restrengthening. Noru could peak stronger in the next advisory than it did earlier. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:00, July 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Models are now taking Noru into the Tokyo-Yokohama area as a very strong typhoon. Japan should be prepared for this storm, because it has the potential to be very catastrophic. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:27, July 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru just keeps persisting! The forecast shows Noru weakening into a 75 mph (1-min) typhoon. Then, it curves south and restrengthens. If Noru keeps this up, we could see one of the longest lasting storms in the basin. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:35, July 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now I'm fearing this storm won't be good for Japan. One forecast model (saw it on Twitter, I believe it's GFS but I am really not sure) brings this to the Kantō region as a 938 mb typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:12, July 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope not. Japan should really prepare just in case, as this could be very bad if models pan out. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:20, July 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I just saw the newest GFS model run for the WPac. The GFS makes Noru a very strong C4 typhoon brushing against the coast of Tokyo, which could lead to problems. No major landfall impacts, fortunately. T  G  2 0 1 7 23:52, July 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Euro also backs that claim, taking it into Tokyo as a 923 mbar typhoon in 240 hours, and both models make it a cat 5, with 890 mbars by the latest GFS run. However, I personally think it's far exaggerated, since Noru isn't particularly well-looking right now, and this is still 240 hours out. Ryan1000 12:00, July 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * However, Ryan, the conditions for Noru will be very conducive when Noru tracks northeast towards Japan. Unfortunately, it is looking likely that Noru will be our first Super Typhoon, and it could threaten land. Japan is no stranger to strong typhoons, but this one could be a re-Songda or even a re-Flo. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:40, July 28, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Noru (2nd time)
Downgraded to a STS by the JMA. However, it is still a typhoon according to JTWC. T G  2 0 1 7 01:49, July 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * The models are now showing Noru moving away from Japan, which is a very big relief if it is true. We don't need a devastating super typhoon striking Tokyo. The models have shown a weaker Noru also. It peaks at 898 mbar, instead of 889 mbar like the GFS had shown the previous day. The HWRF is probably more accurate, showing a 958 mbar peak before weakening. The CMC keeps Noru as a 965 mbar typhoon. If I merge these all together, I get Noru as becoming a C2-C3 typhoon before recurving away from Japan. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:28, July 29, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Another tropical depression is spinning over the open waters of the Western Pacific near Noru. Classified as such by the JMA, they currently report winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1012 mbar (hPa), and expect intensification into a tropical storm. Meanwhile, the JTWC is classifying this system, Invest 97W, as a subtropical depression due to its asymmetric nature and position beneath a cold core cyclone. They expect the invest to eventually become tropical and note the "rapid strengthening" of the system's wind field that the forecast models predict. Winds are currently estimated to be between 25 to 35 knots (30 to 40 mph) (1-minute sustained), and the agency gives Invest 97W a medium chance of formation within the next 24 hours. Like Noru, it will be interesting to see how this depression will be affected by the potential Fujiwhara interaction between the two systems. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:35, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kulap
Now named. It's subtropical though (as of this writing). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:12, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * This system is like 3 degrees west of the International Date Line. Currently at 40 mph/1008 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 15:03, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Kulap has now become a tropical cyclone, although convection is still rather asymmetric and displaced to the northeast of the system's center. The JTWC is currently reporting winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 45 knots (50 mph). Neither the JMA and JTWC are as enthusiastic with Kulap as they are with Noru. The former predicts a peak intensity of 45 knots (10-minute sustained) /998 mbar (hPa), whereas the latter prognosticates a peak of 50 knots (60 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 65 knots (75 mph) under marginally favorable conditions. Both agencies also forecast that Kulap will move towards the WNW over the next few days. Also, the JTWC notes that the storm will likely slow down and weaken once it approaches (and potentially interacts with) Noru. 70.190, regarding your comment, Kulap is actually far east enough that it appears on the CPHC's TWO. This is the first time I have ever seen a WPAC-named storm on RSMC Honolulu's website, and I actually briefly thought that they were writing advisories on this system. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:17, July 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Kulap shouldn't become too strong as it heads westward over open ocean, though the looping forecast track of Noru is certainly interesting to see. Kulap may even have a fujiwhara interaction with the latter sometime next week, if it doesn't turn north out to sea before that. Ryan1000 23:31, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Apparently, Kulap is still subtropical. According to the JMA, with a current intensity of 40 knots (1-minute sustained) /1004 mbar (hPa), Kulap has not significantly intensified. Moreover, they only forecast a slight pressure drop to 1002 mbar (hPa) over the next few days. However, the JTWC is currently reporting winds of 50 knots (60 mph) (10-minute sustained), with gusts of 65 knots (75 mph). Despite some dry air, the latter agency is forecasting Kulap to maintain its intensity before its anticipated Fujiwhara interaction with Noru completely destroys it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:44, July 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Kulap has maintained its intensity for the past day or so, but it will soon reach its end. Aside from slightly decreasing the pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa), there are no significant changes to report from the JMA side. However, they now expect dissipation within the next 48 to 72 hours. Meanwhile, the JTWC is now reporting winds of 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 50 knots (60 mph). Due to temporarily decreasing wind shear values, the agency expects Kulap to briefly reintensify to 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute) with 55 knot (65 mph) in the next 12-24 hours. Afterwards, both increasing shear and proximity to Noru will deliver this storm's death blow, and in approximately 48 hours, the JTWC forecasts that Kulap will become a delicious energetic meal for the former. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:14, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kulup
It's now weakened into a TD. I expect it to dissipate later on. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 16:24, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kulap
It  has now downgraded to a remnant low. 3 years of my tracking... -70.190.5.175 15:44, July 26, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Although not on the JTWC's tropical weather outlook (TWO) yet, the NRL is including Invest 98W, presently located near the Philippines at 18.2°N 125.4°E, on their website. The JMA does not appear to include this system on their TWO, either. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:48, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
And yet another tropical depression springs up in the Western Pacific! The JMA does not include this system on their front page yet, but report a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa). The JTWC has issued a TCFA for the rapidly-consolidating Invest 98W, which is currently located in an area of noticeable outflow and low to moderate wind shear. Although the JTWC indicates that most models do not foresee significant development of this system, I see another tropical storm coming in a few days. They presently report winds of approximately 20 to 25 knots (20 to 30 mph) (1-minute sustained) and give Invest 98W a high chance of formation for the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:37, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10W
Just now designated as 10W. Not expected to become a TS, however. T G  2 0 1 7 20:21, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10W (Fabian)
PAGASA has named this system as Fabian as of its latest advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:34, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Roke
And it's now named Roke by JMA. PAGASA has discontinued its advisories for this storm; it has exited the Philippine area of responsibility. It's now heading towards China. I hope this doesn't turn out to be a bad one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:25, July 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Another forecast defier! Roke, which looks quite organized on satellite imagery, is already stronger than what the JTWC was predicting (and Kulap)! The JMA presently reports an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa). They do not expect any intensification before landfall over China. The JTWC is also estimating winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) , with gusts of 45 knots (50 mph). Despite low shear, favorable outflow and SSTS of 28-30°C, because of Roke's proximity to land, the JTWC is not forecasting any additional strengthening before landfall in approximately 12 hours. Nevertheless, I will not be surprised if either the JMA or JTWC upgrade the storm's winds to 40 knots (45 mph) beforehand, and I do not expect that Roke will be very impactful for China. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:54, July 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * While JMA is keeping this system at tropical storm strength, JTWC has downgraded this system to a tropical depression. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:22, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Roke
Roke has made landfall in China; in other news, Signal No. 8 was actually raised in Hong Kong yesterday. The system has weakened to a TD, and is now expected to rapidly dissipate. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:59, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Roke
Dissipated over China. Hi!-70.190.5.175 15:41, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
NRL is also mentioning this invest, which the JTWC has yet to include on their TWO as well, currently located to the east of Palau at 6.0°N 136.0°E. The JMA acknowledges Invest 99W on their TWO as a low pressure system with a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:48, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * The JTWC now includes Invest 99W on their TWO. The LLCC is somewhat exposed for the moment, but with good diffluence and low shear, most models are predicting steady development of the invest, as the JTWC notes. Winds are currently estimated to be approximately 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa). Moreover, the JTWC gives 99W a medium chance of formation for the next 24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:45, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Invest 99W is closing in on Palau. It still has an elongated circulation, but conditions are more favorable ahead. With low shear, SSTs of 29-30°C, and an overall favorable environment, the JTWC notes that most models are showing further development of the system, and we may see yet another tropical storm in a few days as 99W moves to the NW. Also, the JTWC is estimating one-minute sustained winds of 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) and a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa), and the chances of formation for the next 24 hours remain medium. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:21, July 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Invest 99W continues to swirl near Palau. Aside from the JTWC now reporting an estimated pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa), not much has changed regarding this system over the past day. Moreover, its chances of formation for the next 24 hours remain medium. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:27, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Gorio)
Named Gorio by PAGASA, upgraded by JMA to a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:12, July 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * This, without a doubt, will be Nesat by tomorrow. The GFS keeps taking Gorio into Taiwan just like Nepartak did. Only, the GFS makes this a C3 at landfall. This has a pretty good chance to be the strongest storm of the season yet. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:23, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nesat
And so it does. This storm is enhancing the southwest monsoon, and is drenching the western parts of the Philippines as of this writing. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:12, July 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's forecasted to be a typhoon and make landfall in Taiwan. Currently at 45 mph (10-min mean) /996 mbar. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 16:36, July 26, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nesat
Well, that didn't take long. This is now at 65 mph/990 mbar. Nesat is only expected to be a C1 at landfall. I'm still expecting Nesat to become stronger. T G  2 0 1 7 13:21, July 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be one to watch for, as the JTWC has Nesat barreling straight into Taiwan as a 75 knot weak typhoon. Like you, I have a feeling this could get a little stronger. This shouldn't be anything close to being catastrophic though, as Taiwan is used to typhoons. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:13, July 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nesat is now at 70 mph/985 mbar, and Nesat could affect Taipei, which wouldn't be good. Nesat's heading for one of the more populated counties of Taiwan, Yilan. That whole county is prone to flooding, especially the large city of Yilan City. That city is home to almost 100,000 people and is only 20-40 feet above sea level. The city is also prone to landslides, due to being next to a mountain range. This isn't looking good for that area of Taiwan. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:44, July 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I hope this won't be another tragic storm for Taiwan. And this is not looking good for the Philippines either, especially Luzon. Nesat, while not being able to directly impact the country, is enhancing the southwest monsoon (which proved to be very destructive for Luzon from 2012 to 2014). Floods (though not as severe as the previous ones) are currently affecting some areas; if Nesat continues its slow movement, it will exacerbate the adverse effects of the monsoon to the country. Worse, a potential interaction with Noru can still happen. I just hope that Nesat won't be Morakot '09 or Haikui '12 for both Taiwan and the Philippines. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:31, July 27, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Nesat (Gorio)
Now a typhoon, according to JMA; pressure down to 975 mb. JTWC still considers Nesat as a tropical storm with 65 mph (1-minute sustained) winds though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:05, July 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * JTWC now just upgraded Nesat into a Category 1 storm. This still doesn't look good for Taiwan and China. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:00, July 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now named Gorio by PAGASA, though the Philippines propably aren't getting much from Nesat. Unless it moves over Taiwan slowly or RI's, it's probably not going to be too bad for them, mainland China usually sees worse from typhoons passing over Taiwan since they're not usually as prepared. Ryan1000 12:08, July 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nesat's pressure is at 960 mbar. It's getting ready to make landfall on Taiwan. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 22:28, July 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Just as I suspected, Nesat made landfall in Yilan City, out of all places. Probably the worst area for a typhoon to hit Taiwan. Other typhoons that made landfall in or near Yilan: Soudelor, Matmo, Fanapi, Saola, Clara, and Morakot. All of those typhoons caused over 50 fatalities. Although Nesat maybe traveling faster than the other storms I listed (minus Saola), Nesat still has that particularly dangerous threat although it is weak. It is also very chilling watching a typhoon make landfall in the same location as Morakot. It's very chilling to see that happen all over again. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:18, July 29, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08W
And a new system pops up in South China Sea, near Hainan. Hope this doesn't exacerbate the effects of Talas. However, I am not that optimistic, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:15, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow! This depression literally popped up from nowhere! Neither the JTWC nor NRL had mentioned this system before it developed! Anyways, the JMA is currently estimating an intensity of 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained) /1006 mbar (hPa) and expect intensification into a tropical storm before landfall over Hainan and Vietnam. The JTWC is also estimating winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 40 knots (45 mph). Despite an increase in outflow, the latter notes that Tropical Depression 08W is actually weakening right now. They predict that the depression will intensify to 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute) and gusts of 50 knots (60 mph) before making landfall. However, because this depression is rather small, like Don was in the Atlantic, it will be prone to intensity fluctuations, which means that it may end up stronger than forecast. This could be bad news for northern Vietnam and southern China. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:28, July 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Pacific is on fire!!! Didn't expect there to be this, 3 other WPac systems, Fernanda, and 2 EPac systems (plus one high-chance invest) all active at the same time! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:47, July 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now closing on Hainan. Doubt this will become a tropical storm. Sonca may have to wait a little longer. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:29, July 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Tropical Depression 08W is still not that organized, and the fact that the system is in an area of 15 to 20 knots of wind shear does not help, either. The JTWC is still reporting the same windspeeds as my last post (30 knots (35 mph) (1-minute sustained) ), but no longer expect 08W to become a tropical storm nor make landfall in Vietnam. The JMA also is estimating winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained), but has lowered the depression's pressure down to 1002 mbar (hPa). Nevertheless, they still expect 08W to reach a peak intensity of 40 knots (45 mph) (10-minute) /998 mbar (hPa). Given the depression's proximity to Hainan and that Roke is rather close, I doubt that this will occur. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:04, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

JTWC has just upgraded this system to a TS. I don't know if JMA will follow suit though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:20, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sonca
Now upgraded to a TS and named Sonca by JMA. Still almost stationary as of the moment. Sonca is expected to hit Hainan tomorrow, though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:47, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * How many more tropical storms are going to develop? Sonca is the fifth named storm of the past four days! And the JTWC was no longer expecting development into a tropical storm! Anyways, the JMA is currently reporting winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa). They have also shifted their forecast path for Sonca southwards so that it no longer makes landfall in Hainan and instead directly hits North Vietnam. The JTWC, which is currently estimating winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) with gusts of 45 knots (50 mph), is similarly expecting Sonca to traverse the Gulf of Tonkin due to a stronger subtropical ridge. Citing decreasing shear, improving outflow, and SSTs of approximately 29°C, the latter agency prognosticates that the storm will intensify further to 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute) , gusting to 55 knots (65 mph), before striking Vietnam in a couple days. Hopefully, Sonca will not be worse than Talas was for Vietnam and southern China. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:27, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sonca is forecast to make landfall in Northern Vietnam in a few hours. Downpours are expected, and I hope this will not be Talas 2.0. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:34, July 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sonca is now bearing down Northern Vietnam, expect to die off soon. JTWC has issued its final warning. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 16:31, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Sonca
This is not good. Any time that a storm hits Vietnam, even if it is a tropical storm or depression, there is a high amount of fatalities. Take Severe Tropical Storm Aere from last year for example. T G  2 0 1 7 21:19, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Although not on the JTWC's TWO yet, NRL is tracking yet another invest to the south of Japan, at approximately 27.7°N 135.3°E. The JMA reports Invest 90W's pressure to be 1008 mbar (hPa) in their latest tropical weather discussion. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:27, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
JTWC has another invest spotted, just right behind 99W. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:02, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * This invest has already dissipated (Did Invest 99W absorb this system?) . Hence, the JTWC has removed Invest 91W from their TWO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (end of July)
This one formed two days ago near Wake Island. JTWC considered this as subtropical though, and I am not sure if it has dissipated or not. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:48, July 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's still active, and it could develop into 13W. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:33, July 28, 2017 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
Invested. I hope I'm correct that this invest is also the TD that has been monitored by JMA since July 25. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:18, July 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, this is the same storm. It has a medium chance of developing, but it could be absorbed by Noru once that storm comes back over into 95W's path. I think there is a mediocre chance that this will develop into either a TD or Nalgae. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:41, July 29, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (92W.INVEST)
JMA says that there is a new tropical depression west of the Philippines; even PAGASA says this is already a TD. However, JTWC still has this system as an invest that has only a medium chance to develop. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:48, July 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * This now has a high chance of developing, and it should be just a tropical depression. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:03, July 27, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12W
Now upgraded into a tropical depression. Expected to steal the name Haitang and dissipate. *Sigh*, so goes the story of the Southern China storms. T G  2 0 1 7 11:04, July 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Why does it get to be a name-stealer? If it does become a TS, it will be very weak. I'd say, this is already becoming a failure. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 22:24, July 28, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Haitang
And so it became Haitang. 40 kts, both 10-minute and 1-minute sustained. Will affect Taiwan hours after Nesat. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:01, July 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * We could see a little bit more strengthening, but not much. China will get a double-whammy from Nesat and Haitang, and those always prove to be bad. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:37, July 29, 2017 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
A new invest is spotted by JTWC near the International Date Line. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:48, July 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dissipated. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:19, July 29, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. T G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, 0.01% , 1% , 5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 25% , 30% , 35% , 40% , 45% , 50% , 55% , 60% , 65% , 70% , 75% , 80% , 85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++ , A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5  )

International names:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: <font color="#FE0">55% - This was actually more damaging and destructive than I thought it would ever be. Nanmadol caused almost $1 billion in damages and caused 34 fatalities. That is the highest amount of fatalities in Japan from a tropical cyclone since Typhoon Wipha of 2013, which wasn't retired. That is why chances are closer to 50%.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#049">15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Noru : Grade: <font color="#094">A+ Retirement: 0% - Beautiful fishspinner typhoon. That has never wanted to die. That gives Noru a very high grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - Struck Vietnam, which has a very awful retirement track record. It does get credit for defying the forecast and becoming a tropical storm. Sonca did cause two fatalities as of now, but I'd wait to see what the damage totals are. Hopefully, they will be very low. Sonca was probably the worst name-stealer storm I have seen in my life. At one point, I was just hoping that it would stay as a tropical depression, but no, it had to steal one of my favorite storm names in this basin.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.

PAGASA names:
 * All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
50% or more=italics

Here goes nothing... That's it for now folks! 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 16:30, July 26, 2017 (UTC)