Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/2

Retirements at a glance
No harm in starting this early, like we did with the EPAC and WPAC, now is there? (names that I think will be retired are in bold) --HurricaneMaker99 15:29, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% - 25 deaths and $213 million are respectable fatality and damage totals, but probably not enough to earn retirement.
 * Bret: 0% - The resilience was admirable; however, considering the lack of any major effects, retirement is out of the question.
 * Cindy: 0% - I feel kinda bad booing her, since she survived into some really cold waters, but... BOO
 * Don: 0% - Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing.
 * Emily: 2% - A lot of promise gone to waste here, though there were fatalities.
 * Franklin: 0% - I smell fish...
 * Gert: 0% - Aside from the odd fresh gust in Bermuda, nothing.
 * Harvey: 5% - Minor damage and a few fatalities, but nothing in comparison to Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Widespread and extensive damage; $10 billion across the Caribbean and US? The outright pummeling of the Bahamas, the coastal flooding in NC and VA, the catastrophic inland flash flooding in Vermont and other areas... Irene has made enough enemies to be an easy candidate for retirement.
 * Jose: 0% - What Ryan said (lol).
 * Katia: 2% - Knocked up the UK a bit while extratropical, but had minimal effects on land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Lee: 35% - I'm getting Agnes-ish vibes from this one. Those floods were widespread and destructive, and in some places in PA and NY, just horrific. Lee broke flooding records from Agnes. Agnes, for Christ's sake! Granted it's a bit more likely that Lee will go the way of Fay, he could pull an Allison, too. I'll be very interested to see where the monetary damage figures end up – I'm expecting at least Fay-like totals.
 * Maria: 2% - Not even close to a re-Igor for Newfoundland, and the Lessers didn't get much damage either.
 * Nate: 5% - Veracruz has seen much worse than this.
 * Ophelia: 11% - Tacking on an extra 1% purely because she was so awesome. Reversed some progress in repairing from Igor, but wasn't nearly as bad as he was; though I'd like to hear more about the impact in Dominica.
 * Philippe: 0% - Triumphant fishspinner, but a fishspinner nonetheless.


 * I'm going to wait until later here. If 91L (Emily) of this year happens to do what her 2005 predecesor couldn't(that is, cause enough damage to be retired), then I'll throw in my percentages because as of now, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement. Thus far, I'd be surprised if we have ANY names nominated. Arlene didn't hit Mexico hard enough, and every other storm thus far did virtually nothing. Ryan1000 05:03, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine:
 * Arlene - 15% - It killed two dozen people, but Mexico has seen worse than her, and Arlene's coming back in 2017.
 * Bret - 0% - I don't think Bret's going, unless he's some tyrant name.
 * Cindy - 0% - See you in 2017!!!
 * Don - 1% - Affected land, dropped 2/3 inch of rain in Brownsville, that's it. No way Don's going.
 * Emily - 4% - Not Hanna or Gordon bad.
 * Franklin - 0% - See Cindy's section.
 * Gert - 0.01% - Only because she forced TS warnings for Bermuda.
 * Harvey - 5% - It wasn't a fishie, but if Matthew last year didn't go, then Harvey won't.
 * Irene - 80% - Irene has caused enough damage to remove herself.
 * Jose - 0% - See Gert's section.
 * Katia - 1% - The UK may request retirement, but it's not likely.
 * Lee - 50% - Good chance.
 * Maria - 5% - If a storm like Maria hit NF last year, would it have gone? No!
 * Nate - 3% - Even Arlene makes this storm a fail.
 * Ophelia - 5% - See Emily's section.
 * Philippe - 1% - FAIL!
 * Rina - 2% - Not enough damage.
 * Sean - 0% - It's clear he won't go.
 * Sean - 0% - It's clear he won't go.


 * Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 20% - Damage was minimal, but a quarter 100 deaths? That's a hefty amount. However, Arlene did not cause many big problems to Mexico. Mexico also has been reluctant to retire what most would think to be terrible storms (well, technically all (except the fishies) are). If Karl was not retired, not Arlene. Bret: 0% - Thanks for your ability to fight the shear! Cindy: 0% - Cold water fishy Don: 1% - Don had hopes to bring the South Texas drought to a...well...away from exceptional, but Don did nothing but drop a few barely beneficial drops of rain. Emily: 5% - Emily caused deaths and damage especially to Hispaniola, but not enough for any true retirement. Franklin: 0% - A stupid storm in the middle of the ocean. If I were to give it a nickname I would call it 'The Perfect Fail' Gert: 0% - Gert did cause some issues, but it did not do much to Bermuda except bring some gusty winds as it moved to the east. On the move to 2017! Harvey: 4% - With the exception of 3 deaths and some flooding, Harvey was not a major issue. Irene: 97% - I'm placing my retirement card on Irene because she was too much. She cannot pull of a Karl because she was a big deal to so many countries. In the end, Puerto Rico will probably request retirement, Hispaniola probably will too with 5 deaths and Haiti, which practically will retire ANY hurricane that comes over them due to the earthquake's prolonged affects, cholera outbreak, worse living conditions, etc. For the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, damage wasn't too bad, especially when you look at past storms, but there were damages, and was considered the worst hurricane since Floyd. For them retirement is a maybe. The United States will 100% retire Irene: 35 (2) deaths and ~$7 billion. Overall, the odds of retirement are almost certain. Once again let me put the numbers in perspective: 43 indirect and direct deaths, $10.1 billion in damages CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:38, August 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Arlene: 20% Cause some impact in Mexico it kills at least 25 but like they said here Mexico have seen worst things.
 * Bret: 1% He survived shear and just that, The 1% is for the effect on the Bahamas but retirement is not gonna happen.
 * Cindy: 0% What does she do???NOTHING but I admire her by her duration on cold water
 * Don: 1% That 1% is just for the damage in the carribean and just that, not even give Texas the water that it need just after landfall it dissipites Fail
 * Emily : 3% A lot of promises but not even one she do.
 * Franklin: 0% you and Cindy are just gonna be best friends, you two have a lot in common especially that both of you are fails.
 * Gert: 1% just because she affected Bermuda, but hey honey you are staying no matter what.
 * Harvey : 3% damage in my country nor belize was enough to earn retirement but at least it tried.
 * Irene:97% for me damage was enough for retirement Puerto Rico or the U.S.A may ask the name of this beauty.
 * Jose:1% Another system make of a front boundary of the 2011 but I have to give him credit for surviving and strenghtening in the high shear
 * Katia:10% good storm to track but not she is not going even with the effects on Europe because at that time she was extratropical
 * Lee:35% it did damge but not severe for retirement but I have to say he is one of the best candidates until now with Irene and Arlene
 * Maria:5% it was not that bad but it was a hurricane nontheless
 * Nate:5% dissipite after landfall PATHETIC just like don
 * Ophelia: 25 to 35% damage in Dominica a lot but not severe and it has a chance nevertheless
 * Philippe: 0% because it didn´t affect land but i need to give him credit for nearly becoming a cat 2 and our 5 hurricane of the season
 * Rina 3% you are my brother favorite name of the season but you only affect Mexico primary and if he is resilent to retire big storms we can not even talk about this one
 * Sean 2% like others you are a fishpinner but you affect Bermuda almost directly so that is why my number and also he is my favorite male name of the season and Whithney if it develop porbable won`t is my female favorite name


 * Allanjeffs 03:00, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * :: okz well here r my forcasts
 * arlene 18% deaths and damage but not alot
 * bret 1% cause of the bahamas but no real retirement
 * cindy 0% ur on the train to 2017
 * don 2% cause of the caribian but not really
 * emily 6% well alot of brushing land
 * franklin 0%ur also on the train to 2017 =D
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda

Well, I'll now give my final numbers: A summary is here: I thought we got lucky last year, but we got luckier this season than we had in any year. I hoped we would get another good blessin', but this year Irene gave us a very good lesson. Irene made 2011 a season worth remembering, but as bad as it was, it could have been the end of everything. I hope we prepare for others to come, but all that matters is now we're done. Farewell until next year, I'll be returning, and I hope by then we'll have a season worth neglecting. Ryan1000 18:19, November 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 15% - Not enough overall impacts.
 * Bret - 0% - Theres fail...
 * Cindy - 0% - ...and there's epic fail.
 * Don - 1%. It hit land as a depression, but still, why would this one be retired?
 * Emily - 5% - Not bad enough.
 * Franklin - 0% - I think I heard something.
 * Gert - 0% - Not even Bermuda was damaged by this failure.
 * Harvey - 5% - If Matthew didn't get it last time, Harvey can't go this time.
 * Irene - 85% - I didn't think it would stay this way all year, but Irene was the storm of the season. Although it could've been worse, it still caused enough impacts to leave the list. Karl discouraged me, but Irene did more damage and deaths, and the U.S. is more generous than Mexico, I believe.
 * Jose - 0% - No way Jose.
 * Katia - 0% - It did nothing while tropical, and the UK won't retire a non-tropical remnant low.
 * Lee - 30% - I may be in the minority, but it was still much less damaging than Allison, so probrably not.
 * Maria - 5% - This was not even close to Igor.
 * Nate - 5% - Pretty much a Maria for Mexico.
 * Ophelia - 5% - This was basically a stronger Maria with little overall impact.
 * Philippe - 0% - It was a long-lasting and persistent storm, but it still never affected land.
 * Rina - 5% - Even Paula makes this storm look like a failure.
 * Sean - 0% - A fishspinner tropical storm bids the fine farewell to the 2011 season.
 * Definitely retired - Irene.
 * Probrably retired - None.
 * Possibly retired - Lee.
 * Probrably not retired - Arlene.
 * Not retired - everyone else.

Here's mine:


 * Arlene - 5% - Karl didn't get retired, why should this one?


 * Bret - 0% - Other than TS warnings, it did nothing.


 * Cindy - 0% - It wasn't even close to Bermuda.


 * Don - 0% - Could have gotten a higher number, but this one really failed.


 * Emily - 5% It did brush the Leeward Islands.


 * Franklin - 0% - This one's not going.


 * Gert - 0% - Only TD winds were felt at Bermuda.


 * Harvey - 5% - Well, it tried.


 * Irene - 95% - It did enough damage in the Carribean, adding the East Coast makes it go off the list.


 * Jose - 5% - It formed so close to Bermuda and it still did nothing.


 * Katia - 20% - Unless it did moderate or serious damage in Europe.


 * Lee - 20% - It has damage, but not too much.
 * Maria - 10% - Unless your looking forward to it as a Igor-like storm.
 * Nate - 5% - See Arlene's section.
 * Ophelia - 40% - The damage in Dominica seem pretty intense. The damage in Newfoundland was kind of bad, where the roads weren't repaired well. I wouldn't be suprised if this gets retired.
 * Philippe - 0% - 90 mph of failure.
 * Rina - 10% - Compare this to Paula.
 * Sean - 0% - Obvious.

Here's a summary..  Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  23:05, November 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone - Irene
 * Might be gone - Lee, Katia, Maria, Arlene, Ophelia, Rina
 * Staying - the rest

Here are mine:


 * Arlene - 15% - Possible, but unlikely.


 * Bret - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Cindy - 0% - Fishspinner


 * Don - <1% - Hardly did anything.


 * Emily - 5% - Some effect, but not severe.


 * Franklin - 0% - Near fishspinner.


 * Gert - 0% - Bermuda just got a little breeze.


 * Harvey - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Irene - 90% - U.S. damage is estimated to be about $7 billion, and add the Caribbean damage and it totals to about $10 billion. The U.S. won't pass on this one I am pretty sure.


 * Jose - 3% - Some effect at Bermuda, but nothing very severe.

70.171.254.210 01:44, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine: All of that saying so far, Irene will be the first storm to get the boot. Now, Isaac is the last remaining original I storm. Given that they are cursed, I expect that to get the boot in a few years too. Darren 23   Edits |Mail  01:20, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% – Didn't do a whole much of anything... I didn't see any reports of Mexico calling this that bad.
 * Bret: 0% – Obvious
 * Cindy: 0% – Obvious
 * Don: 1% – Donepicfail will never ever be retired, ever.
 * Emily: 4% – Emilyfail didn't do anything much to Hispaniola.
 * Franklin: 0% – Few hours of fame
 * Gert: 0% – Obvious
 * Harvey: 15% – Central America/Mexico wasn't crying that this was destructive, so this is obvious.
 * Irene: 91% – Moderate to severe damage over a wide area, with the US having massive floods, this will get the boot. This is not gonna be an Karl... Irene is much, much more widespread and people actually know the extend of the damage.
 * Jose: 0% – 24 hours of fame

The Great Seer has spoken: <p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">What a crazy season it's been. Back to back years of 18+ storms. Amazing. -- SkyFury 03:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 30% - 22 deaths and $223 million in damage is nothing to sneeze at, I don't care what Mexico says. I had no idea it was that bad. If that was in the US, we'd have it up around 50% at least. Those are definately retirement-worthy numbers. Do I think it will be retired? No. But the numbers certainly qualify.
 * Bret: 2% - Sure made for a lousy weekend on Abaco Island, but otherwise bupkiss. Most of Bret's effects were beneficial.
 * Cindy: 0% - Look, a shooting star! Quick everybody make a wish!
 * Don: 1% - Per my usual custom, I never give a storm that affected land a 0% chance. I was really hoping to be able to make a Godfather reference with this one, but that's kinda hard to do with a storm that fell flat on its face. Though I guess it's fair to say that TS Don sleeps with the fishes ;)
 * Emily: 10% - It did kill five people. I'm still confused about Emily. It will go down as one of the most troublesome storms in history from a forecasting persepective. SMH...
 * Franklin: 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Gert: 0% - I get the feeling there were a few surfers on Bermuda who were sorely disappointed.
 * Harvey: 8% - This one could've been a lot worse. I think a lot of people were worried about another Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Wow, what a storm. As we feared, this has turned into another Floyd/Isabel with devastating inland flooding. But as bad as it was, it could've been a whole lot worse. It would've been catastrophic had it hit North Carolina as a Cat 3 and NYC as a Cat 2, as originally predicted. This was really setting up to be a worst case scenario with the size of the storm, track right over NYC, and astronomical tides. Thank God it didn't happen. I don't think I'll ever forget seeing Times Square, Grand Central Station, and Atlantic City's casinos completely and utterly vacant. It really was post apocalyptic. I was waiting for Will Smith and the zombies to jump out at any minute. Incredible. I hope you guys took it all in, because we may never see another storm like that in our lifetimes. I thought every single elected official at the state and local level did an exemplary job preparing for this storm. I don't think they could've handled it better. It had been almost three years since a big storm hit the US and there was plenty of room for complacency, but all the mayors and governors handled this with the utmost seriousness and professionalism. It took a lot of balls for Mayor Bloomberg and Governor Christie to order those evacuations. And apart from North Carolina, these were places that never have to deal with stuff like this. For a bunch of them, this was their first serious threat from a hurricane in decades. I was blown away by how well they handled it. Their actions saved lives. Hats off.
 * Jose: 0% - *facepalm*
 * Katia: 6% - Hey, it was fun to watch. A major hurricane for a change. And the British Isles took a beating from this. Four people did die.
 * Lee: 25% - Flooded the rest of the eastern US. Death toll is up to 17 now. As feared, this got pretty ugly. It brought a crapload of rain to places that couldn't take another drop. It exascerbated flooding in the wake of Irene. It's a cruel irony that Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were drowning in 15 inches of rain while neighboring Texas is in a historic drought with huge wildfires destroying homes. All Lee did for them was fan the flames.
 * Maria: 5% - Well this ended up getting pretty interesting, especially for Newfoundland, who've had a rather lively past couple of seasons. But this was no Igor. It was certainly blustery, probably exhilarating down on the south coast, but they came out of it unscathed.
 * Nate: 10% - Another disappointment. They gave the kids in Veracruz the day off from school for this. That said, at least five people have died in flooding and ten oil rig workers are missing. Yikes. Hence the 10%, which could be conservative if these early reports turn out to be true.
 * Ophelia: 5% - Wow that was fun! What an amazing storm! Who'd have thought as we watched Ophelia sputter and die that it would come roaring back to become the strongest storm of the season. Just a remarkable turnaround. And yet another scare for Newfoundland, this has been a crazy season for them. All that said, damage was fortunately minimal.
 * Philippe: 1% - Yet another tenacious storm. This has really become a major subplot of this season: tough, tenacious storms. Maria, Ophelia and Philippe all survived brutal shear conditions to become significant hurricanes. That's impressive. That 1%, btw, is simply out of respect for what the storm was able to accomplish.
 * Rina: 3% - Mexico dodged a bullet, this thing could've been a whole lot worse. That shear came on stronger than expected.
 * Sean: 0% - I'm just gonna go out on a limb here and say Sean's not going to do much. I may revise this later. I think this is a nice finishing touch on the season. With those two storms in October that very nearly got named, we could easily be looking at a 20 storm season right now, but alas. It was a season of missed opportunities, but when we look back on it twenty years from now, we'll all remember one name: Irene. Irene was a truly incredible event and a terrible tragedy that I don't think any of us will soon forget.
 * To be continued...

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Anything but Irene 0 percent, Irene at 60 percent (while I've substracted some 25 percent due to the fact that the basin is running out names commencing with an I) --88.102.101.245 11:49, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Here's what I have:


 * Arlene: 20%. The deaths and damages were something notable, but just not enough to cut through Mexico's reputation.


 * Bret: 1%. Little rain, not much else.


 * Cindy: 0%. Hello, speedy!


 * Don: 1%. To say the least, this was probably the first time a tropical storm not making landfall was a disappointment to the people there. Texas needed the rain.


 * Emily: 15%. It was quite aggravating to track and did do some damage. The thing that makes me wonder is that the worst hit may have been Martinique...the same Martinique that got Klaus off the list. However, Emily, fortunately, was no Klaus.


 * Franklin: 0%. While it did rain on Bermuda to a tiny degree, who would remember this one?


 * Gert: 0%. Yet another near-hit with no effects.


 * Harvey: 1%. Yet another minor effects storm.


 * Irene: 85%. It was leading up to this. Major damage, high death toll, and although it wasn't as bad as predicted, it was still bad enough. It's time for a 12-year-late retirement.


 * Jose: -5%. The dead-ringer of Tropical Storm Kay from the 2004 Pacific hurricane season and Tropical Storm Ernesto of the 2000 Atlantic season. It was such a bomb of a storm that I can't even give it a 0.

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">That's all for now! Jake52 22:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; "> In general, here is a summary of what's going and what's not:

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Gone: Irene

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Possibly so: Arlene, Lee

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Possibly not: Emily, Harvey, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Rina

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Staying: Bret, Cindy, Don, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Philippe

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Hurricane Andrew (444)' 02:52, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Although we have had a rather active season thus far this year, the ACE sucks, TBH, and we have had only one bad storm thus far in 2011, so we're better than where we were in previous years. At this time in 2004, we had Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne was in the making, and at this time in 2005 we had Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and Rita was going to be forming as well. We had Gustav and Ike done with at this time in 2008 and Andrew was long past done at this time in 1992. I do not use past seasons as a prescedent of what's to come; for example, although we have a chance of seeing a Wilma, Mitch, Paloma, or Lenny-like storm in October and November, I don't directly count on it, since no two seasons are exactly alike. We got much luckier this year than we probrably ever could've been in the history of ever. Irene could have easily been a 100 billion-dollar storm if it hit NC as a cat 3 and NYC as a cat 2 like it was originally predicted. The timing of Irene's landfall couldn't have been any worse. The tides were at their peaks when it made landfall. New England suffered record August rainfall so the ground couldn't hold any more water, maximizing flood potential. The only thing that saved us was a patch of dry air that was over South Carolina and Georgia at the time Irene was doing her ERC. That dry air weakened her to a C1 when it made landfall in North Carolina, saving the coast from what could've been the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Although Irene was nowhere close to being a Katrina, 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths(mostly in the U.S) is still nothing to be taken lightly. Irene has a very likely chance of being retired, not 100% though, and it ended a very long drought on the east coast, the longest ever known between any two hurricanes there. Ryan1000 10:51, September 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 15% - Did lots of damage in Veracruz but not enough to be retired.
 * Bert - 2% - Never approached land.
 * Cindy - 0% - Hardly ever approached land.
 * Don - 1% - Made landfall in Texas and then BOOM, it was gone.
 * Emily - 5% - Some damage in the Caribbean but not enough.
 * Franklin - 0% - Who?
 * Gert - 2% - Brushed Bermuda.
 * Harvey - 5% - It did make landfall in Mexico, but not as a very strong storm.
 * IRENE - 99% - Billions of damage along the East Coast, loads of deaths. This will be retired.
 * Jose - 1% - Waste of time.
 * Katia - 10% - Hardly any damage.
 * Lee - 40% - Loads of flooding along the South coast and the eastern coast and 20 deaths.
 * Maria - 5% - Another version of Igor? No. Maria will never get retired.
 * Nate - 0% - Just dissipated as soon as it made landfall. I'll see you in 2017, Nate.
 * Ophelia - 15% - Brushed Bermuda, followed same track as Maria. It will never get retired.
 * Philippe - 0% - Only thing it actually did was last long and hit Iceland as a very weak extratrop. storm.
 * Rina - 5% - Hit Yucatan as a tropical storm, wasn't as bad as it could have been.
 * Sean - 1% - Fish storm.

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Kiewii 09:19, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">In total, it looks like around one storm will be retired (~1.25). There is around a 95% chance that at least one storm will be retired. Dree12 20:14, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene 5%: Mexico has seen much worse damage than this, and deaths aren't the only indicator for retirement. It may have come as a surprise in late June, but I would be seriously surprised if Arlene left.
 * Bret ~0%: No damage
 * Cindy ~0%: No severe damage
 * Don ≤1%: Barely any damage, and was more benificial than harmful
 * Emily 5%: It's not the US or Mexico that got hit worst, but Emily wasn't a Klaus.
 * Franklin ~0%: No damage to speak of
 * Gert ≤1%: Bermuda has seen much, much, much worse.
 * Harvey ~0%: This is Mexico we're talking about.
 * Irene  90%: The US hasn't retired a hurricane since Ike, and although Irene wasn't as bad as Ike, 50 deaths and 7 billion of damage in the US alone isn't something to laugh at. If the US passes, the Caribbeen won't; there were much too many countries affected. More likely than not, Irene's going away for 30 years.
 * Ten 0%: Name cannot be retired.
 * Jose ~0%: No severe damage.
 * Katia 5%: Even England has seen much worse, and they aren't going to retire an extratropical storm
 * Unnamed Nova Scotia Tropical Storm 0%: Name cannot be retired.
 * Lee 5%: People will disagree with this, but the only tropical storm retired by the US was Allison, and Lee was no Allison.
 * Maria 5%: It was Canada which was hit, but Newfoundland has seen much worse.
 * Nate ≤1%: Caused more panic than damage.
 * Ophelia 10%: Not worse than Maria in Newfoundland, but since Dominica might seek retirement as well, the percentage is increased a little.
 * Philippe ~0%: Surprising longetivity, but no impact.
 * Rina: 5%: Lots of hype but little impact outside of Mexico.
 * Sean: ~0%: No impact at all.


 * I'm bored tonight, so I might as well post my predictions for this year for every storm.
 * Arlene; 5% - Arlene wasn't a horrible enough storm for Mexico to get itself off the list.
 * Bret; 1% - Well he impacted land.
 * Cindy; 0% - Survived over really cold waters for a long time, even got to near hurricane strength in them..but that doesn't earn retirement.
 * Don; 1% - I'm kind enough to give a percent for land impacts. :P
 * Emily; 5% - Hanna didn't get retired, Emily did way less damage and deaths so I doubt it has any significant chance. Preliminary damage reports aren't out yet, but I'm not assuming they were too serious.
 * Franklin; 0% - No.
 * Gert; 0% - An afternoon thunderstorm never earned retirement. Gert stayed far enough out to sea to impact Bermuda in a bad way.
 * Harvey; 1% - Harvey did minimal damage, and it seems very unlikely that he will be retired.
 * Irene; 98% - Last year everyone gave 99% chances to Karl..so I'll go with 98% so I don't look so foolish. But in reality, there are so many countries/states that have decent reasons to retire this name. 10bill in damage is no laughing matter, neither is horrible flooding in Puerto Rico and Vermont and extensive wind damage in the Bahamas. Oh and she also burnt down Richard Bransons private mansion on a private island, so the UK has a reason for retirement too. XD
 * Jose; 0% - No.
 * Katia; 5% - She killed people, and one of those people could've been the president of the WMO..so you can never say never here. Damage in Europe was bad, but not catastrophic.
 * Lee; 50% - I know a lot of people will disagree with me here. But if the 4 billion dollar damage estimates in Pennsylvania are confirmed to be from Lee then I see no reason that he shouldn't be retired. It all depends on if that flooding was directly from Lee or if it was from the front that absorbed Lee.
 * Maria; 1% - The reaction from the media here was nothing close to what they said about Igor, so I'm doubtful if this even has a 1% chance.
 * Nate; 1% - He pulled a Don at landfall in Mexico (he dissipated the second the center met land), so I'm assuming that damages were minimal at worst.
 * Ophelia; 40% - Some might call me crazy here too, but remember that Ophelia caused a huge amount of flooding damage in a French territory..and France is the most liberal country for retirements out there. Ophelia also caused enough problems in Canada too. Though this storm ended up a lot better than it could have been if it was a few hundred miles west when it was RIing. She would've reached her peak intensity right over Bermuda and could've been worse than Fabian.
 * Philippe; 0% - The oddest storm of the year, but never affected land.
 * And there you go. My thoughts on retirements this year. Yqt1001 04:29, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene; 15%- Was not really bad for Mexico.
 * Bret; 1%- Did not affect anyone, so retirement's out of the question.
 * Cindy; 0%- Survived over very cold waters of the North Atlantic, but that doesn't warrant retirement.
 * Don; 1%- Barely even gave rain to Texas which was hoping for it.
 * Emily; 5%- Not enough damage.
 * Franklin; 0%- Absolutley positively not.
 * Gert; 1%- Barely even affected Bermuda.
 * Harvey; 5%- Damage was minimal.
 * IRENE; 90%- 7 billion. It is very likely Irene will be retired.
 * Jose; 0%- As said in Franklin, absolutley positively not.
 * Katia; 10%- Would like to see some more damage reports. She affected Europe badly, but not it wasn't catastrophic.
 * Lee; 25%- Caused alot of damage in the US, though it may have been from a front. Lee is one to watch next spring.
 * Maria; 1%- Not going to be an Igor.
 * Nate; 1%- Pulled a Don, minimal damage is what Mexico got.
 * Ophelia; 50%- As said above, French territory may retire this. Ophelia caused problems in Canada to.
 * Philippe; 1%- Big fish like Cindy and Franklin.
 * Rina; 10%- Things could have been way worse here. Rina barely even did anything in the Yucatan.

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">HurricaneOwen99 13:59, October 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's official. Lee is officially one of the 14 1 billion dollar weather disasters this year in the US. (the total damage is really unknown though, it says +1 billion) This makes Lee more damaging than Fay, but still less damaging than Dolly, who wasn't retired either. Yqt1001 19:25, November 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hadn't imagined Lee as being that bad, but even Allison was still much worse. It did 5.1 billion in damage to the U.S. at the time it hit in 2001. There is certainly a chance Lee could be retired, but the damage wasn't catastrophic enough or widespread enough, especially for the U.S. The fact Lee didn't become a hurricane doesn't help his chances. Bret of 1993 killed over 120 people in catastrophic flooding in Venezuela yet wasn't retired, and I still don't know why Agatha of last year wasn't retired despite it's awful impact in Guatemala(certainly it was much worse for them than Lee for the U.S; Agatha killed as many as 300 people. Lee only killed around 20). I'll up Lee's chances to 40%, but I still don't think it will be retired. I still think Irene will be the only one that's definitely going. Ryan1000 23:36, November 4, 2011 (UTC)

Replacement names
<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Again, no harm in starting this early like in the WPAC. Do you guys have replacement names in mind for Irene (and/or Arlene/Emily)?

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">These are mine:

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Female "I" names: <p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:23, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Isa
 * Izzy
 * Ivy
 * Ila
 * Ilsa
 * Iman
 * Iphigenia
 * Idelia


 * What about Inga, Irma, or Ilsa? --HurricaneMaker99 03:38, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is also Irah (which was used years ago), Ilona, and Isla (pronouncd EYE-lah). Some strange "I" names are upon us... Check out Babynames.com, and look at the "I" names! Once we get past the aforementioned names, we are in for even weirder ones, as it looks like the "I" storm will always be at the peak of the season, and will commonly be a large offender. <font face= "Candara"><font color="6666CC">~TDI19!!! <sup style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; "><font color="FF0000">...To...  <sub style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; "><font color="99CCFF">...From...  04:13, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Iva was formerly an EPac mystery retirement, perhaps due to the fact it was confusing with Iwa, which itself became retired due to it's destruction in Hawaii in 1982. My personal pick for Irene, if it even does become retired, would be Irma. And Arlene and Emily weren't bad enough for the places they hit, so I won't offer any replacements for them. Ryan1000 06:49, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Here are some more: <p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">70.171.254.210 00:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ilaria
 * Imelda
 * Immacolata
 * Ines
 * Italia
 * Ilene
 * Ivory
 * Ivonette
 * Ivonne
 * Idoya
 * Ivette
 * Izumi
 * Iva
 * Ioanna
 * Irena

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Ines seems unlikely due to Inez, which was formerly retired, and Irena seems a little too close to Irene IMO, but if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, both of which are 1 letter-off names, I won't rule it out. Italia seems unlikely as well since it's Spanish for Italy, a country's name(Israel replaced Ismael, a former EPac retiree, but it was never used because Israel felt offended from that name choice and requested it be removed). Again, my personal pick would be Irma. But we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 05:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Remember, Ryan, the statute of limitations on retired names is 30 years. Fabian (which replaced Frederic in 1979) was replaced with Fred in 2003. To follow up Hurricane Maker, I like Inga, but it may be too close to Ingrid, which is already on the list. Irma and Ilsa are also good options. Ivana is an option. I also like Imogen and Ileane but the latter may be too close to Ileana, which is in use in EPAC. Iva and Ivy are two other English options. If I had to pick a favorite, it would probably be either Inga or Ileane, which is phonetically the closest. -- SkyFury 22:54, August 29, 2011 (UTC) <p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; "> Eric, the Federic>Fabian>Fred (mess up) from list 1 doesn't gurantee that the gap must be 30 years(especially since that was the only time it ever happened). Things can be different with replacement names. As I mentioned above, if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, which are both 1-letter off names from the retired name in question, it can't be said that the replacement name must be much different from the retiree in question, and the fact Ileana is in use in the EPac doesn't at all mean that Ileane can't be used as a replacement for Irene because Frank was used in last year's PHS and Franklin, a longer version of Frank and the name in place of Floyd, was used earlier this year in NAtl. So variants of names can be used in both ATL and EPac and replacement names can be one or two letters off from the retiree in question and still be acceptable by the requesting country. If you would rather stay away from variants of in-use names in either basin, names that are close to the retiree, or variants of former retirees, that's fine, but based on the facts, there is no gurantee a name can't be chosen under those conditions. When we requested Isabel of 2003, we send the names Ida, Ina, and Ivy as possible replacements of Isabel. The WMO selected Ida which was used two years ago, so given that they have two more backup "I" names, I wouldn't be surprised if Ina or Ivy is chosen. When a country requests a name to be removed, they send two or three possible names to replace the offending name. If it's different from any other name not in use and not formerly retired, the WMO just goes for it, I guess... My personal pick for Irene, as I mentioned earlier, would be Irma. Ryan1000 03:13, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I was referring to your dismissal of Ines/Inez as an option because it was retired in 1966. Just because it was retired in 1966 doesn't mean it can't be reassigned now that 45 years have passed. The generally accepted statute of limitations is 30 years and so far this has been generally followed, though Fred definately pushed it at exactly 30 years. I agree with you that just because a name is close to one that is retired or in use in another basin does not mean that it can't be used. If it's close to one in use in the Atlantic, however, that might be different. I think Inga is far enough away from Ingrid that it could be used, though it would make more sense as a replacement for Ingrid itself. If I had to pick a favorite, it would be Ileane. I think it flows well, though I imagine it might look a little different spraypainted on plywood. -- SkyFury 06:25, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Eric, as I mentioned earlier, the Frederic>Fabian>Fred trio from list 1 doesn't gurantee the gap must be 30 years. Heck, Rita of 2005 was one of the worst U.S. storms ever and it was replaced with Rina. The difference between Rita and Rina is just about the same as Frederic and Fred IMO. I personally also try to stay away from variations of former retirees, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Ileane wouldn't be bad, given Frank and Franklin are on both lists, there is no gurantee variants of EPac names can't be used in NAtl either. We truly don't know what will happen with replacement names, but I am baffled by some of the WMO's picks. Dean's was the best example of WTF. Fred's choice was baffling, but Dean's replacement name was the worst excuse for a replacement name in the history of ever. Felix and Noel just made it worse... (I'm not reminding you of how silly the French are). Ryan1000 09:22, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">I don´t know why you say Dorian is a bad name for replacement because I really like it and maybe Mexico send that name to replace Dean because in there Dorian is a popular name Allanjeffs 20:58, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">No, it was chosen because somebody important is an Oscar Wilde fan. Ryan, don't get me started on the French, I think you know how I feel about that. Some of the replacement names recently have been absolutely ridiculous. Pretty soon people won't be able to listen to the tropical update without giggling. "Here's Tropical Storm Dorian..." *hysterical laughter*. Dorian was the worst, but Fernand? As far as I'm concerned, that's a typo. Fernando would've been the perfect choice, especially given the Spanish theme and that's the name that I acknowledge. Katia was a little silly but at least it makes sense with the Russian theme of Katrina. Rina sounds like something bad that happens to your kidneys. Gonzalo replacing Gustav was dumb. Isaias is kind of cool. And they redeemed themselves last year with Ian and Tobias, though why Matthew wasn't retired is beyond me, and I'm still confused about Alex and Karl. Apparently they weren't as bad as initially reported. Hanna is still a crime. -- SkyFury 21:24, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">Okay, end of that. I won't discuss anymore about the replacement name fails with the WMO. Pisses me off... If any name would be more descent for Gustav, it would have been Gary IMO. Ian should have been Ike's replacement. Why Matthew wasn't retired is no mystery to me because after all the reports I went through with Mexico and Nicaragua after Matthew, it couldn't have done 2.6 billion in damage. That must be a false number. And Mexico hasn't retired many other storms in the past Eric. Alex and Karl are two. Others include Emily of 2005(massive damage on the Yucatan and the gulf coast of Mexico), Liza of 1976(the worst crime in EPac history; as many as 950 deaths in Mexico and no retirement), along with Tara and Tico. Paul of 1982 was also destructive and deadly, but it caused most of it's destruction as a precursor wave and not a named tropical cyclone. Allan, I believe Dean was nominated by Martinique or Guadelupe, not Mexico. Dean did more damage in the lesser antillies than it did in the greater antillies because those smaller lesser islands get little warning of the storm, wheras Jamacia and Mexico have very advanced warning systems for tropical cyclones so they minimize destruction and/or deaths despite the storm's intensity. Agatha of last year is an utter mystery as well... Alma on the other hand, did become retired, but because Alma means "Soul" in Spanish, the reason behind her retirement after 2008 may have been the fact the name itself was offensive and was retired for that reason rather than being destructive. That's my opinion. Mexico is probrably more conservative for retirements than any other country except Haiti(well, they almost never retire names anyway... remember Tomas was nominated by St. Lucia last year). Ryan1000 22:14, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Matthew killed 143 people, Ryan. I couldn't care less what the damage figure is, the death toll is staggering. Death toll > property damage in my book. And also, I think you missed my point earlier. I never said the gap must be 30 years. I said 30 years was generally accepted as an unwritten policy. I never said that limit was a strict stipulation, but it's a courtesy generally adhered to. The only reason I even brought it up in the first place was because you said that Inez/Ines wasn't an option because it had been retired in 1966. I said just because it was retired 45 years ago doesn't mean we can't use it now. You spent a whole lot of time preaching to the choir. You're right, just because a replacement name is similar doesn't mean it can't be used. It's generally frowned upon though to replace a retired name with a shortened form of the same name, like replacing Michael with Mike for example. Or Frederic with Fred, though again, that was not done directly and it satisfied the 30 year statute of limitations. These aren't necessarily rules, just etiquettes. -- SkyFury 03:48, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="border-style: initial; border-color: initial; ">I know there isn't a requirement for the gap to be 30 years, but if there are exeptions to the "rule", then we can't say those exeptions won't repeat themselves. I'm not all upset over chosing close names to former retirees, but to some extent(like Ines/Inez), yes. If you also don't like that, that's fine. I also agree with you on the fact deaths should weigh more than damage, but things aren't always that way for retired names. My personal opinion on retired names is dependent on how many problems a storm causes for an entire country as a whole. Hurricane Irene this year cut off transportation, left millions of people without power, and caused extensive damage over a widespread area of the eastern seaboard. Some areas described it as their worst storm in many years(not refering to Darren's opinion there). So Irene has a very good chance of being retired based on that. Worldwide, the only true shoe-in is Yasi of the SPac, but it obliterated entire towns in Quensland from it's massive storm surge and caused many problems for all of Australia. It just has to be retired. Ryan1000 04:45, September 2, 2011 (UTC)