Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season

January
Ahhhhh Happy New Years fellow hurricane Wikians. It's been a really hectic last year (especially August and September), but tis a new year. Along with the new year (2008), I provide notable facts about our next name list:


 * Since naming began for male/female names in 1979, this is the only names list where every year it was used, an "L" storm was named (Lili until this year).
 * This names list always produces at least 12 named storms. Excluding storms that went un-named since 1950, 41 years had lesser activity, including a streak from 1979-1995, when the only "L" storms were ones using this list.
 * The streak of seasons with no "B" hurricanes was not broken in 2007. The last B hurricane was 99's Bret.
 * Up until this season, "Arthur" has never been used for a hurricane for four seasons straight.
 * This is the only recent names list (since 79) with no Category 5s.

Well, let's hope for a year with few, if hopefully no, deaths or damages. Jake52 My talk 09:34, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

AoI: NE of the Antilles
Whew, first AoI of the year! Anyway, the trough that has been hanging around near 25N for the past couple days has developed a very broad surface low. It's actually quite similar to Olga's origins. Anyway, the CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET have actually been forecasting something to form from this. I know, it's January, but you never know, right? 71.7.210.87 01:56, 10 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Now it's gone again. I know it's the Atlantic, but not all AoIs form into invests. WeatherROCKS89 05:04, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Middle of nowhere
There is a vicious-looking low in the central atlantic. It's has already burrowed down to the surface, it is completely cut off from any fronts and it has a high to the west so it won't get ripped apart. I think it has a decent chance of subtropical/tropical.   -Winter123 21:36, 6 March 2008 (UTC)
 * It pretty much looks like a subtropical depression, but given from the NHC discussion the info on the low, it would be a sub-tropical storm. 211.104.188.136 08:18, 7 March 2008 (UTC)
 * What does the nhc say? Anyway I'm starting to think this is non-tropical, due to the line of clouds from the jet sream to the south feeding into this. Still it's a powerful storm and worth mention. -Winter123 12:36, 7 March 2008 (UTC)
 * They say now that it does not produce gale-force winds anymore. However, it still has a minimum pressure of 1006 mb and 30~35 mph winds. 211.104.188.152 07:16, 8 March 2008 (UTC)
 * Shear got to it. Here's the loop from peak to death. EDIT: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi?region=atl_sat&yy=2008&mm=03&dd=06&hh=12&loop=yes2x2 -Winter123 17:58, 8 March 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Gulf
Models for at least the past 3 days have been showing a low developing in the NE gulf and moving over florida to the ENE. Does no one else believe this has a chance? -Winter123 23:38, 5 April 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, the low is developing as we speak... but it's totally non-tropical. I mean, there is a slight, slight chance it could make the transition, but I highly doubt it. Climatology is not on its side. undefinedundefined 22:37, 7 April 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, the models only 2 days before were wayyyyy off. The low that was forecast to close off and move over north florida, is instead moving ESE and getting sheared apart over Cuba. This is what I get for trusting the models too much, i suppose. I deserved it. -Winter123 12:27, 8 April 2008 (UTC)

Off the African Coast
OK, first off, I do not in any respect expect anything to develop from this! It's just an anomaly thats worth a mention. Anyway... There is a strong wave that just came off the coast of Africa, here. The NHC's Tropical Discussion mentions it:     VIS SAT PHOTOS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 8N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS. The ITCZ has been very hyperactive all April, and now we have this thing. The last time that I can remember such strong convection in the ITCZ this early in the year was in 2005. Hopefully not a harbinger of things to come. undefinedundefined 19:43, 8 April 2008 (UTC)
 * Please, post links that do not expire! Save the image and upload it to imageshack if needed. I do agree though, the ITCZ was very active last week, seems to have died down now tho. -Winter123 23:19, 11 April 2008 (UTC)

Countdown: 2008
The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season begins in 73 hours, 23 minutes GMT. There's already some activity in the East Pacific. -- SkyFury 22:37, 28 May 2008 (UTC)


 * What are the chances of that making it into the atlantic? it's headed that way - - Winter123 05:09, 29 May 2008 (UTC)


 * With the direction it's heading, I'd say chances are pretty slim. Those mountains are awfully daunting. However, wind shear across most of the Gulf of Mexico (where the NHC best track forecast points its remnants) is relatively light. Should the circualtion survive, conditions might be somewhat favorable for cyclogenesis. It's remnants would probably reach the Gulf sometime during the day on the 31st; the eve of the season. -- SkyFury 17:16, 29 May 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Cape Verde
Those are some friggin' intense thunderstorms associated loosely with a tropical wave in the central Atlantic. Bears watching. -- SkyFury 17:41, 29 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Actually, this wouldn't surprise me at all. The one over water at about 7.5N is holding deep convection and has probably a 25mph spin. Worth watching. It's so far south it won't recurve. I'm saving a gif image for future reference. -Winter123 18:31, 30 May 2008 (UTC)
 * No one else is watching this?? gif loop. It has a closed LLC and strong, holding convection over the center! -Winter123 17:23, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Oh, I'm watching alright. It's pretty unbelievable, really. Not only do we have waves coming off Africa with organization like waves of July/August, but the environmental conditions are really strange, also. Shear is very low (5-10 knots), there is an anticyclone over the wave, and the SST's are the most anomalously warm in the Atlantic. Will it develop further? Maybe. It does have some model support, and even though any development off the coast of Africa at this time of year is generally unheard of, a tropical depression did form around here 8 years ago near the end of June. Thats the only thing I can think off thats anywhere near similar at the moment. undefinedundefined 17:30, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * One thing that strikes me is, remember the last storm last year that moved over PR and Haiti? When that formed, the ITCZ ahead of it kind of sunk south and vanished. Same thing is happening here. -Winter123 17:46, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Dry air got it. -Winter123 18:44, 1 June 2008 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
So, Alma remnants actually did survive the crossing. Anyway, NHC doesn't think to much of it, and nor do I; it's headed straight for the Yucatan. Still, shear is only around 10-15 knots over the system, so you never know, it could become a tropical depression. Once it hits the Bay of Campeche, though, the environment isn't supposed to be as nearly conductive as it is right now. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. In any case, our first invest! undefinedundefined 00:15, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Alrighty! Looks like the season is off to a start, and I return! I can't see this system becoming anything big unless something sporadic happens or it makes a SUDDEN turn to the east back into the gulf. I can only see this thing weakening and giving the Yucatan lots of wind and rain. As you say, time will tell! - Enzo Aquarius 00:50, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * It survived the insane mountains of Central America, why can't it survive the yucatan? I think we'll get a TD1 before it gets sheared to death in the mid-gulf. -Winter123 06:12, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Well then, how come nobody discussed Cyclone Nargis, which killed 150,000 people? Or the retirement replacement names: Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor? Anyway, only the GFDL seems to put this storm close to tropical storm status, likely to wane, but you never know. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:03, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * This thing is tricky, but it's definitely giving the Yucatan a heck of a lot of rain. I doubt we'll get anything big out of this, at most, a Tropical Depression, but again, this seems unlikely. We shall see. :) - Enzo Aquarius 14:59, 31 May 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Arthur
Okay, so maybe I was wrong... Very, very strange things going on. 90L skipped the TD classification and jumped straight to TS, all while over land! Anyway, unexpectedly, here's Arthur! 24.222.149.162 17:06, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Haha, got edit conflicted when I tried to post this myself. So starts the 2008 season. --Patteroast 17:09, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * WHAT!??????????????????????!??!?!?!?!?!??!?!!?!
 * Ok i'm done. I looked at the sattelite loop when I got up and I was like hmm this is stalled like 10 miles into belize, the left side is completely dry, if it doesnt get over water soon it'll just spin to death. But its named? Friggin crazyness. (off topic: look off the coast of africa!) -Winter123 17:22, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * What the hell...last I saw this thing, it was a bundle of heavy thunderstorms spurting out of Alma's arse. It was already moving inland! The disturbance statement said nothing about impending development. Geez, I feel like a grown man who just got a few teeth knocked out by a third grader. This is the second straight year that a named storm has formed in May. That has never happened in the history of the Atlantic basin. Arthur becomes the first May tropical storm since Arlene in 1981. All of this dropped out of the sky in the space of a few hours. -- SkyFury 18:18, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Plus, the first storm since 1989 to cross from Pacific to Atlantic, and less than a dozen have done so in recorded history. -Winter123 21:56, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * WOW i was expecting ALMA to get to the Atlantic as i stated yesterday but i was not expecting for it to be called arthur.Jason Rees 19:26, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Alma's circulation died over Central America; Arthur developed from a piece of Alma that broke off and developed its own circulation. They only keep the name if it's a single circulation that remains intact the whole way through. -- SkyFury 23:25, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Heh, what I get for paying attention to severe weather in the midwest rather than the Atlantic. I didn't even know anything was going on till I saw the article on CNN. Harocat 00:31, 1 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Ah, we have a roast again! I was expecting a T.D., but not a T.S. and in the GoM, not here. Jake52 02:11, 1 June 2008 (UTC)
 * It's May! I was expecting bupkiss. I'm out to Hawaii, by the way; graduation trip. I'll be back in ten days. -- SkyFury 04:17, 1 June 2008 (UTC)
 * "Arthur" is gone. But if the track sinks any further south I have no doubt it will develop in the pacific as the B storm. And then become a cat 5 and hit Hawaii XD totally kidding but man, this storm is weird. -Winter123 18:43, 1 June 2008 (UTC)
 * HAHA I called it. The center reformed offshore and it's now 91E. This storm won't die!! Now watch it loop back to the east into the atlantic again. -Winter123 04:09, 3 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Geez, this thing just won't die! One system developing a possible three storms. It's only the start of the season and we already have an odd little system abound. - Enzo Aquarius 17:51, 3 June 2008 (UTC)
 * I was totally kidding in my last post, but I may have been right. This could enter the atlantic again! If this is declared a TD today, it'll have three names. But it may even move into the Gulf of mexico and get FOUR names. It's only 3 days into the season 0_o -Winter123 18:59, 3 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Heh, we may already have a major record breaker. :P - Enzo Aquarius 02:33, 4 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Whats the longest a storm has survived over land? This is still being tracked by NRL. Whatever swirl was in the pacific has died, so now its just the remnants of arthur still sitting over land. There is a weak midlevel swirl over the Gulf of Mex. but other than that I see no signs of rotation. I think it will be dropped today. But I'm still curious what the longest is a storm has been over land and reformed. Someone feeling adventurous and want to find out? :D -Winter123 18:30, 4 June 2008 (UTC)
 * I was wrong. Still there. -Winter123 04:26, 5 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Even more records being broken? :P - Enzo Aquarius 16:15, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

Ok finally dead. Geez.-Winter123 04:40, 6 June 2008 (UTC)
 * From Maui: Winter, to attempt to answer your previously unanswered question; several storms have crossed the daunting mountains of mainland Mexico and made it to the Pacific in one piece. Fifi in 1974 is an example. It spent like 36 hours over mountain ranges. -- SkyFury 01:05, 10 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow! It did get 4 designations (well, sort of). It didn't get 4 names, though. (Alma-Arthur-91E-92E). Weatherlover819 04:06, 11 June 2008 (UTC)

AoI: West Carribean
There's a storm like this every year, disorganized convection in June in this exact spot organizes enough to be named but is heavily sheared and forced up the east coast. Nothing yet, but worth watching. Shear seems pretty light at the moment.-Winter123 18:49, 10 June 2008 (UTC)


 * It's actually looking pretty nice on satellite at the moment. I say it's a TD as we speak based solely on the deep convection and overall satellite presentation.


 * http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn.jpg
 * That image is from Oct 7, 2007. weird. Weatherlover819 23:14, 11 June 2008 (UTC)

91L INVEST (Off the NE coast of South America)
[http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/91L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20080611.1815.goes12.x.vis1km_high.91LINVEST.25kts-1012mb-90N-570W.100pc.jpg. Very small and very far south.] Isn't this a really odd place for the beginning of June? I have been watching this thing for the past few days but didn't think it was worth mentioning since its climatalogically unfavorable. Its about to move over land, and get sheared. I'd say .01% chance unless it can make it to west carrib. -Winter123 19:31, 11 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Why haven't they classified it TD? Wind readings are over 30 knot.24.215.70.104 00:31, 12 June 2008 (UTC)


 * It's a 20mph midlevel swirl right now and will probably have to tango with south america. But it looks favorable and development by Friday wouldn't surprise me. But I won't have access to a computer for the next 10 days so, have fun tracking! :D I'll check the plymoth state weather center archives when i get back to see what happened. -Winter123 04:52, 12 June 2008 (UTC)

AOI: Cape Verde Season starting early?
Wow it's already almost July and there hasn't been one invest. But we have activity in the E atlantic. -There is a wave coming off africa (15W) with a good rotation and storms firing only over water. Sadly not on NHC discussion yet. -Then the next wave west (35W) has a nice low level rotation as can bee seen on satellite loop. I'm surprised it is not an invest yet. NHC Discussion: "A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W." -Winter123 17:05, 28 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Ok those died but the one about to come off looks amazing and is at a low latitude. -Winter123 03:53, 29 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Just so you know, ALL the models (GFS, UKMET, CMC, ECMWF, NOGAPS) are forecasting this to develop into a depression/storm. GFS is the most aggressive, taking it all the way across the Atlantic to Florida. The other models all dissipate it in the Central Atlantic though. It's interesting to note that even Arthur didn't have this much model support. Anyway, the wave itself has a surface circulation that is over West Africa at the moment, shear is decreasing in the Cape Verde region, and the parade of waves has significantly decreased the amount of dust and increased the amount of moisture. SST's are still 1-2 degrees above normal in the area, as well. With all the model support and the conductive environment, I think I'd be more surprised NOT to see something form. undefinedundefined 20:33, 30 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Ok thank you i'm not the only one seeing this. Can anyone look at this (gif loop, expires in like 2 days) and say it DOESNT look like a tropical depression even though it barely emerged? This should be a TD by this afternoon if it stays like this. -Winter123 06:25, 1 July 2008 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
It's been invest'd, and NHC is also talking about it: A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA... ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. --Patteroast 11:46, 1 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Is this the first time a system has formed this far east this early? I mean come on this looks like a TD to me.-Winter123 16:19, 1 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Seems to be organizing well, with visible rotation. Wouldn't be surprised if this system, if it does, develops fast. - Enzo Aquarius 03:51, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * COME ON NHC JUST MAKE IT TD2 ALREADY. (or possibly 1 since Arthur was never declared a TD?) It looks perfect. -Winter123 04:55, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look like it has an LLCC yet. The thunderstorm activity appears pretty disorganized. This one's not there yet. NHC doesn't even have a floater on it. -- SkyFury 19:00, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Woot! Finally, after days of model agreement, an invest! The models are agreeing where this will go, but I don't know about the long term. I'm predicting cat. 2 hurricane Bertha, then a TS landfall on Nova Scotia. Season's finally getting busy! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:57, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I rarely watch the weather channel but i caught it this morning and they brought up something. The weather caster was so surprised by it she practically screamed "THAT IS SO IRONIC!".
 * "On July 1, a tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Africa. On July 3, a weak low-level circulation developed while located 500 miles south of Cape Verde. The depression moved westward, and on July 5, it strengthened into a tropical depression in the central Atlantic." - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha
 * Sound familiar? If this current storm does form (and it looks very very likely) it will form in the same place, same date, and likely take a similar track because as someone said on another board theres 2 big highs over the Atlantic and this is far south.
 * But the REALLY ironic part is, this current storm will be named... BERTHA! -Winter123 04:34, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
It's officially been given Tropical Depression status. Advisory 1. The 5 day track has it strengthening to Tropical Storm by the end of today. - Salak 12:04, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
NRL's showing a new invest, on the border of the Carribbean, sitting on top of Martinique. --Patteroast 20:43, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, another invest in the Caribbean! Don't know where this one's going, models seem to be agreeing on the general track but not the exact track. I'm predicting, with still-limited data, but then again NHC just had a new update so I'll go check that, I'm predicting TS Christobal landfall on the Dominican Republic, then Cuba, then Cat. 1 landfall on Florida. Let's see what this one does. The oceans are still warming up, but the weason's getting active already. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:04, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Heavy shear. Looks like a small thunderstorm that would form a tornado in the midwest, except moving in the opposite direction. IMO this one has a 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001% chance. -Winter123 04:51, 3 July 2008 (UTC)