Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season

The Hall of Fame returns
Earlier today I promoted TG and Steve to new administrators and No. 1 Mobile to a rollback on Hurricane Wiki per the votes they received on the community vote page. Although he wasn't promoted, I talked with Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) on revitalizing Eric (SkyFury's) Hurricane Hall of Fame, which was started many years ago, but wasn't gone that far into and Eric hasn't posted since the end of the 2012 AHS forum, and he's probably retired by now. But with many more notable storms since Eric's (presumed) retirement, I'd like to start it up again and continue his legacy with inducting more storms into the Hall of Fame. Currently he has a record of storms from the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific, and hasn't gone into the other basins, but with many more users on the wiki since last year's historic AHS, I think we can get a good pool of voters for the hall of fame this year and in coming years. What do you guys think? Ryan1000 23:05, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

August
I think it's time to add this section, even if there is literally no disturbance that is present in this basin right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:55, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic is very boring right now. Hopefully something forms soon... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:14, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Zzzzzzzzzzz...  Send Help Please (talk) 08:56, August 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * CSU mid-season outlooks are out. Numbers raised from 11-4-1 to 12-5-1 after the two July hurricanes. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: 700 miles west of the Azores
FINA-FREAKIN'-LLY! 10/20 as of latest advisory, will most likely flop, but at least it's something! Also, that's got to be one of the weirdest projected development areas I've ever seen. Send Help Please (talk) 07:56, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Nah, watch it somehow develop into Debby and strengthen to a hurricane. :P Leeboy100 Hello!! 08:28, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
TropicalTidbits actually has this up as an invest. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, that was fast.  Send Help Please (talk) 14:32, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Not every day we see a storm moving in a southwesterly direction, especially in this part of the Atlantic. But it probably won't become much; if it becomes Debby, it'll probably remain well out at sea. Ryan1000 16:10, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/30 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:16, August 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/40. Might wind up having to eat my words about this flopping.  Send Help Please (talk) 07:36, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 20/20. Send Help Please (talk) 02:05, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Glad to see something here for the first time in forever (lol). Unfortunately, might be a flop at this point. I still hope it can somehow become Debby though. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 50/50. What.  Send Help Please (talk) 06:04, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Debby
How did this happen...Ryan1000 14:59, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * debby was just impatient for 15 minutes of fame --yare yare daze (talk) 15:01, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

I wasn't really expecting this at first but it wont last long. 40mph and 1008mb.-Nickcoro (talk) 15:05, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Waste of a name.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * next ...zzz... --yare yare daze (talk) 15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

What even. Wasn't even expecting this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:07, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this shouldn't have been named...but oh well. What a fail. Ryan1000 15:10, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Debby is currently weakest NHem TS-strength system for this year. What a joke. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:17, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * What a waste of a name... 😑 This formation was so unexpected. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:00, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Kinda expected Debby from 97L but I did not expect it to be named so soon. Debby has just formed but I know she will definitely be back in 2024. Come back stronger Debby, but be a fishspinner like this one too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:08, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * This was unexpected. I thought this wouldn't even form from the start, although before it was named, it did looked better. Debby just pulled an Emily I guess. Also the NHC just named this straight away for the second time this season, same thing with Alberto. Oh well, what a waste.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   17:51, August 7,
 * Send Help Please (talk) 20:17, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still the same intensity for Advisory # 2. It is looking hopeless for any further intensification, and it may not even become fully tropical. What a disgraceful waste of a name. Debby's anthem... *facepalm* ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:29, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I find it interesting how... erm, subtropical... this season has been so far. Of the four storms we've had so far, only Chris wasn't subtropical at any point in its life. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:58, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Debby
And she transitions to a tropical storm. 45 mph, 1003 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:45, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Uh, yay?  Send Help Please (talk) 10:17, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * zzz zzz ZZZ. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:45, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm just glad to finally have something to track in the Atlantic, as long as Debby doesn't turn out to be indicative of the rest of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:52, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * debby's theme song yare yare daze (talk) 17:03, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * (Un)fortunately, she probably will be. With a strengthening El Nino and less than ideal conditions across the Atlantic, I'm not really expecting an active Atlantic season out of 2018. Ryan1000 17:11, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, me too. Although the MDR of the Atlantic is warming, there is still the SAL and wind shear across the Atlantic, so even then, I don't think this season will be much compared to the two previous years. Especially if we have a subtropical storm in the Atlantic in August, which I think is rare for the Atlantic.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     05:29, August 08, 2018 (UTC)


 * 2013 part ii tbh lol --yare yare daze (talk) 17:31, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Honestly, after the destruction of last year, I wouldn’t mind the Atlantic being quiet this year. Then again, we could get a 1992-esque season where one storm is incredibly destructive, but hopefully that won’t happen. Leeboy100 Hello!! 19:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, this year will probably be close to 2006 (which also used this year's naming list) which gave people a break after 2005 (the costliest year on record for its time, and also used the same naming list as last year). Ryan1000 13:06, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

2004/5: modoki doki el nino

2009/10: similar el nino setup

2018/19: hellish 2019? also considering the fact that italian storm next year who will never settle for anything below hurricane intensity... who knows what he might pull next year?!?? 🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 18:04, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby
As expected, Debby is now on her way out. Try again in 6 years, Little Debby. (As The Weather Channel refers to her as) Leeboy100 Hello!! 21:14, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * And with this, the Atlantic falls into slumber... again...  Send Help Please (talk) 06:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Officially off the NHC site. Look at it this way, at least she didn’t cause any harm in her short lifespan. Leeboy100 Hello!! 06:32, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Tfw GFS doesn't show its usual fantasy storms... ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
Nevermind on that whole slumber thing, a wild AOI appears. 10/20.  Send Help Please (talk) 14:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * I honestly don't see this developing to a tropical cyclone. There is high wind shear across the Caribbean. However this does has a small shot of attaining tropical depression status.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     19:54, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Upping the numbers without stealing a name. I am okay with that. Send Help Please  (talk) 07:00, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Me too, if a system is going to just stay extremely weak, it should only peak as a TD without stealing a precious name off the lists. This one is down to 10/10, and development is not going to happen unless we get a surprise. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:01, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now dead.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     15:35, August 12, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: North Central Atlantic
Another AOI appears, this one with 0/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:54, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Debby 2.0 anyone? Ryan1000 12:26, August 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * I hope not... Anything but another pathetic name-stealer, unless this can somehow peak at 60+ mph. I was a bit surprised Debby managed to reach 50 mph, which although still pathetic, is better than how I expected it to perform. If this one develops, we might have another subtropical system. Alberto, Beryl, and Debby were all subtropical at one point in life. This system could make it 4 out of 5 systems being subtropical at one point in life (it's already 3 out of 4). I doubt I've ever tracked an Atlantic season with so many subtropical systems. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:08, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Now marked as an invest. Also now 10/20. Yeah, I also had never tracked a season with so many subtropical storms, but I'm assuming the high number of subtropical storms id because the subtropics are favorable for tropical cyclone development while the MDR isn't that favorable this year. Having a subtropical storm in August doesn't seem right lol. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     15:41, August 12, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
I added this section, as we are already well into the season despite the fact that only 3 storms have formed so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's Atlantic retirement forecast

 * Alberto - 5% - Caused disruption, but nothing significant really.
 * Beryl - 5% - A spectacle, regenerated a la Harvey, scared Maria-battered Puerto Rico, yet only inflicted minimal damage.
 * Chris - 2% - 2% for being a Category 2 in the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic, but other than that... nothing notable.

That's all for now.

Originally posted by: Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC).

joestar's retirement home
yare yare daze (talk) 17:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * alby (5%) : "lolololol florida i'm gonna destroy you like irma" -was a subtropical storm-
 * bez (2%) : "weeeeeee i'm a baby hurricane i am gonna weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"
 * chris (0%) : "look at me i can pull stunts like the chris-tal ball in 2014 and i can be better than him haha"
 * debby (-420%) : hell naw

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: TD, TS , C1 , C2 , C3 , C4 , C5 , 200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - Just >$125 million in damage and 12 deaths should not convince the U.S. to give Alberto the boot. This is nothing compared to very bad storms America experienced in the past, such as Harvey or Katrina. Usually, retirements in the U.S. have a damage bill of at least $1 billion.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Some credit given for its pre-season formation. However, the fact that it remained subtropical for almost its whole life (through peak intensity and landfall) prevents the grade from being higher than this.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Beryl :
 * Retirement: 3% - The relatively light impacts it caused were in-between lives as a remnant low. The regions it impacted have seen much worse last year. Even the hardest-hit regions (like the Dominican Republic) have seen much worse in the past.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - The grade is boosted for its rapid intensification in the MDR so early in the year, and for being the first "Hurricane Beryl" ever. As a bonus, it briefly regenerated east of the East Coast. However, its small size meant it had potential to get even stronger in the MDR.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris :
 * Retirement: 1% - It did cause a death due to rough seas and impacted Canada as an extratropical system. That isn't enough to even think about retirement though.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - Did a nice job at the C2 part.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby :
 * Retirement: 0% - Completely out to sea.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Stole a name off the list, but I have to say it performed better than I expected (by reaching 50 mph).

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:20, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 22:11, August 11, 2018 (UTC))

TG's Retirement Predictions
Welcome to my fourth annual retirement prediction, the first year that I have dropped the colors since 2015. This year I will just make it simple and easy, without it taking 5 minutes to get the right color for each storm.


 * Alberto - 10%: 10% might be a little too high, but Alberto is definitely not worthy of retirement.
 * Beryl - 0%: I seriously think this storm is overrated, to be honest. It didn't do much, and it was a classic weak MDR cyclone that occasionally happen on the edge of the MDR.
 * Chris - 1%: Chris killed one person, unfortunately, but it won't be enough for a retirement. Classic subtropics hurricane. T  G  2 0 1 8 17:00, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Adding mine too. Color scheme is up for the second straight year.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Alberto – grade  A , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Early surprise to maintain a 4-year streak of preseason storms. Bonus points for transitioning to a tropical cyclone inland and surviving as far north as Michigan. Retirement is unlikely, however.
 * Beryl – grade  A , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Cute little midget MDR hurricane. Even managed to hang on and have a second stint as a subtropical storm. Simply amazing.
 * Chris – grade  C , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Decent fish, unfortunately one death.
 * Debby – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . "Debby" shouldn't have gone to this name thief.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 10:07, August 10, 2018 (UTC).

Roy's Retirement Prediction
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto ( 17% ) - A pre-season storm that continued the streak of years with pre-season storms, and transitioned to a tropical cyclone over Tennessee and made it as far as Michigan. It did some millions of damage and a couple of deaths, but the US won't retire this name
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Beryl ( 0.001% ) - A small hurricane in the MDR that became the first ever Hurricane Beryl. This won't be retired, but a little bit greater than 0% due to its effect on land while post-tropical
 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris ( 1% ) - A C2 that didn't really affect land other than claiming one live, but even that won't retire Chris
 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby (???) - Currently active

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:49, August 08, 2018 (UTC) Last updated on 17:49, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Lee’s retirements
We’ve had only 4 systems, but it is August, so I might as well start this.
 * Alberto- 10%: Caused 12 deaths, and some impacts, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
 * Beryl- 2%: First ever Hurricane Beryl, and it came in the form of a cute little mini-hurricane. Did cause flash flooding in Puerto Rico and other areas recovering from Irma and Maria from last year, but thankfully wasn’t too bad and caused no fatalities.
 * Chris- 3%: Did cause some impacts in Newfoundland, and unfortunately one death. Not enough for retirement though.
 * Debby- 0%: Nope.

Leeboy100 Hello!! 03:54, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions
Grade colors:  S ,  A+ ,  A ,  A- ,  B ,  C ,  D ,  E ,  F ,  PH  (Phillipe)


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto : Grade:  B  - Retirement: 10% - Neat little pre-season surprise that went tropical inland for some reason. Gets 10% for around $125 million in damage and 12 total deaths.
 * <font color="#fffcc">Beryl : Grade:  A  - Retirement: 1% - We got finally got a Hurricane Beryl, in the form of an adorable little mini-cane that (mostly) spared the areas that had been mauled last season. Bonus points for surprise regen though it was short lived.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris : Grade:  B  - Retirement: 2% - Gert 2.0
 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby : Grade:  F  - Retirement: lol no % - Performed terribly, yes, but definitely not as bad as Philippe, who was so terrible that I had to name my lowest grade after him.

Will be added on to as needed. Send Help Please (talk) 08:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)