Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season

July
We haven't made a header on this yet, but we might as well now. Also, in case you haven't seen it yet, I've made the SHem forums and betting pools for next year, if you're bored and wanted to bet on something...the hall of fame also still has room open for inductees on the SHem basins. Ryan1000 11:06, July 4, 2018 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
Just as Maria becomes post-tropical, we have an invest with a low chance from JTWC. -- Roy 25  19:52, July 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:02, July 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:04, July 14, 2018 (UTC)

This may hit the Philippines in the coming days. Highly likely to be named Henry by PAGASA, but I am not yet 100% sure if it will become Son-Tinh. And you're possibly correct KN, 94W may have merged with 92W. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:52, July 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this should be Henry and probably Son-Tinh. Hopefully it's nothing destructive or deadly over the next several days. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11W (Henry)
JMA, PAGASA & the JTWC all upgraded this to a TD. May become Son-Tinh sooner or later. It also turns out that 94W did not merge with 92W/11W, since the former reappeared in JTWC's website. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to intensify to a strong tropical storm, skirt northern Philippines, and affect Hainan and Vietnam in the long run. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:41, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Henry)
Now named Son-Tinh. It probably would be weak as it forecast to pass the Philippines and into China and Vietnam. -- Roy 25  02:23, July 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * It has actually passed through the northernmost part of the Philippines already. It is heading towards northern Vietnam/southern China now. However, the monsoon intensified due to this storm; several areas in the main island (Luzon) are now inundated by flood waters, although these floods remain below the waist as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:46, July 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Son-Tinh is moving westwards really fast. Might be interaction with 93W or the center reforming westwards under the thunderstorms, can't really tell. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:03, July 17, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Son-Tinh (Henry)
It has moved inland over Vietnam, and both agencies have announced their final advisory. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Surprisingly, 11W/Son-Tinh's remnants are in JTWC's page again. It's at code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:38, July 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * Code red, JTWC issued TCFA. Bet no one saw that coming! ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:14, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nop, I have never seen something like this actually in the Wpac. usually when they cross into Vietnam and Laos they died, have never seen one coming back into the gulf of Tonkin. AllanCalderini21 (talk) 08:47, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Son-Tinh/11W
And it re-intensified to a TD. Wow, WPac is going nuts right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:40, July 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * I've never seen a TS move over land in Vietnam or southern China then move eastward over the South China Sea or Gulf of Tonkin before. If it's not a first then it must be the first in a long time. But Son-Tinh isn't expected to get too strong and hopefully won't cause severe impacts to the region. At least 19 people were killed by Son-Tinh so far and damage totaled to around 50 million or so. Ryan1000 18:24, July 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Not me either! Son-Tinh is not expected to significantly re-intensify though as it moves back towards Vietnam. I don't think anyone expected it to go back out to sea and redevelop. What a shocker this is. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:19, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (2nd time)
A TS again, at least according to JTWC and the SSHWS. JMA still has Son-Tinh as a TD though. Sadly caused 32 deaths. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:40, July 23, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Son-Tinh (2nd time)
Final warning issued by JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:14, July 24, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Son-Tinh
This, 13W (Josie) and Ampil are all dead now. Ryan1000 03:59, July 25, 2018 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
And another invest appears. East of Mindanao, southwest of 92W. Code yellow as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:47, July 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now has a medium chance of formation. Apparently, this and 92W are racing to become Son-Tinh (and likely, Henry). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:01, July 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gone. Probably merged with 92W. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:04, July 14, 2018 (UTC)

Oops. It appeared again on JTWC's site. Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * The environment is pretty favorable for both this and the below system. We could get 2 new depressions in the coming days. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, July 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * And PAGASA says that this is likely to become a tropical depression within 48 hours. Inday is coming. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:48, July 17, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
And just like 93W below, this has intensified to a TD, at least according to JMA. This will become Inday, but becoming Ampil is still uncertain at this point, though it is most likely to overtake 93W if it happens. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:07, July 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Global models are now agreeing on a weak to moderate typhoon passing near or north of Taiwan and into China about a week later, which is unfortunately right where Typhoon Maria hit some time ago. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:07, July 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12W
JTWC upgrades 94W to a TD; expected to be named Inday by PAGASA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:45, July 17, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12W (Inday)
Now named by PAGASA. Forecast to become TS Ampil later on. Currently indirectly drenching Luzon with heavy rains via the southwest monsoon, similar to what Maria/Gardo and Son-Tinh/Henry did in the past 10 days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:24, July 18, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ampil (Inday)
Upgraded by PAGASA and JMA to a TS. Still a TD on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:39, July 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC has now upgraded it to a TS. Expected to threaten Shanghai while approaching typhoon strength. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:38, July 19, 2018 (UTC)

Ampil is currently expected to be a moderately strong 60 mph TS when it moves ashore south of Shanghai in a few days. The cold wake left behind by Super Typhoon Maria 2 weeks ago is in part to blame for it's lower intensity, though it's also a fairly large and broad TS, which should keep it from becoming too strong. It'll certainly be a heavy rain and flood threat to parts of eastern China though, so it could be a notable storm down the road. Ryan1000 12:06, July 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's been about a day since my above post, and now Ampil seems to be devoid of all its deep convection. Still forecast to hit Shanghai, but as a weaker storm and it might not cause that much flooding to the city at this point. Ryan1000 15:42, July 20, 2018 (UTC)


 * It appears that Ampil will peak as a severe tropical storm. However, this still may cause damage. TS-strength systems in the WPac are known to cause considerable damage in China, best example would be Bilis in 2006. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:50, July 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * The thing about Ampil though, is unlike Bilis it has lost most of its deep convection and now only has a small portion of it to the southeast of the circulation. That's not to say there can't be heavy flooding associated with it when it hits near Shanghai (hopefully there isn't), but Bilis had a lot more convection attached to it, which explains its severe impacts; in fact Bilis was even worse than Cat 5 Saomai in China later that year, in both loss of life and property. Ryan1000 02:23, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

Ampil has moved ashore in China around or just north of Shanghai as a tropical storm, but has lost most of it's convection by now. Hopefully it won't be too severe for them. Ryan1000 13:04, July 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * This was kind of a disappointment intensity-wise, but at least it didn't get too strong due to its threat to China. Unless this is a flooding disaster, I don't think this will be too bad. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:22, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ampil
Final warning also issued by JTWC for Ampil. I believe that JMA has also issued its last advisory for this system. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:14, July 24, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ampil
Dead and gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:57, July 25, 2018 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
Near/over Hainan island, code yellow. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:04, July 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to medium, but shouldn't become anything much due to unfavourable conditions. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:10, July 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Considering land proximity and unfavorable environmental conditions, I doubt it will significantly develop/organize. Still looks like a flooder though, hopefully it's nothing deadly. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:13, July 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actually, JTWC's wording now says the environment has improved. A TD is possible. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:45, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Scratch what I have said earlier. This is actually upgraded to a TD by JMA. It is still in the Gulf of Tonkin. The race for Ampil – which replaced Bopha – is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:59, July 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * JTWC killed it completely. Son-Tinh's rapid approach of the area probably means this isn't going to do much at any rate. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:09, July 17, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression
Appears that JMA has also killed it, as the only TD in the area (on JMA's weather map) is the remnants of Son-Tinh. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:40, July 19, 2018 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
Code yellow on JTWC. Has a lot of ocean ahead of it though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:45, July 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Medium chance of formation now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:37, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now has a high chance of forming from JTWC. Wow the WPAC activity is rising. -- Roy 25  16:42, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15W
Formed into a depression, with that, now there are 5 active depressions in this basin. -- Roy 25  03:48, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * May peak as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon later this week. This may be Wukong (or Jongdari, or perhaps even Shanshan?) if conditions turn out to be very conducive for development. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:19, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

This could be something to watch out for, the current JTWC forecast takes this towards Japan as a typhoon down the road, but the other two storms (13W, or Josie, and 14W), aren't expected to do much. Ryan1000 13:04, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * The WPac is on fire!!! 😲 Out of all the systems, this is perhaps the most concerning one. Like Ryan said this will be a typhoon threat to Japan, and JTWC takes it up to 85 knots (although it could get stronger than that). ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still not visible on JMA's typhoon page, but this is likely to be nicknamed as "TD b" as 13W is "TD a" and 14W is "TD c". Anyway, this is brewing to become a significant storm for Japan and the rest of (north) east Asia, based on the JTWC forecast track. May also enhance the southwest monsoon which has punished the Philippine island of Luzon since Son-Tinh/Henry a week ago. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:50, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

This will be Jongdari. Expected not to receive a PAGASA name as it is expected to move away from the Philippines and its area of responsibility. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:25, July 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Still a TD according to both agencies, but the JTWC's forecast map has a typhoon-strength system passing very near or over Tokyo between the 96 and 120 hour forecast points. This is not looking good for Japan who have yet to have a reprieve from severe weather over the past month. Over 220 were killed in floods at the beginning of July, and at least 80 have died from the heat wave which has brought temperatures near Tokyo to over 40°C (aka 104°F). Future-Jongdari may be able to end the heat wave but nevertheless ending the heat wave with a typhoon is excessive. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:30, July 24, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jongdari
Finally upgraded to a TS by both JMA and JTWC. Bad for the Tokyo area; this is forecast to hit the Kantō region by the weekend. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:02, July 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * Jongdari (which replaced Sonamu in 2013) is expected to be a 110 mph cat 2 right now, around the same strength of Lan last year which hit Tokyo as well, but Jongdari's track (curving northwest to hit Tokyo from the southeast) is rare for the WPac, TS Lionrock of 2016 (formerly a typhoon) also hit eastern Japan that way. Tokyo is a well-prepared city though, with a strong floodwall and well-built buildings, and it would take a very strong typhoon hitting the city to seriously disrupt them. Ryan1000 03:53, July 25, 2018 (UTC)

The track forecast intensity for Jongdari has been upgraded somewhat, now the JTWC takes Jongdari towards central Japan southwest of Tokyo as a 115 mph category 3-strength typhoon by Saturday. Hopefully it's not that strong when it hits Japan though. Ryan1000 05:58, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Jongdari
Upgraded to STS status by JMA, just like Wukong. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:24, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Jongdari
Upgraded further. The JMA's forecast isn't as aggressive as the JTWC's though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:15, July 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still a TS right now according to JTWC, but it'll probably be a typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale soon as well. The JMA forecast goes by 10-minute winds though, and 10-minute winds of 75 knots/85 mph might be stronger by the JTWC (Saffir-Simpson Scale), so category 3 strength isn't entirely out of the question. Ryan1000 14:00, July 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a 70 knot/80 mph typhoon according to JTWC. The track for this one is strange; they take it straight into Japan from the west before moving it south of Korea. I don't know if I ever seen that kind of track before. Usually storms move into Japan and Korea from the south. Anyway, hopefully Japan goes through this easily and without significant damage/deaths. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:49, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 110 mph winds by JTWC, and forecast to be a cat 3 soon, before curving back west and hitting central Japan as a 100 mph storm or so in 2 days. Ryan1000 18:20, July 27, 2018 (UTC)

uh oh jongarl bls quit wit de rum tah  §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 12:05, July 28, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall in Japan
Jongdari is just about to make landfall in Japan southwest of the city of Nagoya as a 90 mph category 1 typhoon. It's a small storm though, so it shouldn't last over the country that easily. Ryan1000 12:17, July 28, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 98W)
Low chance on JTWC but JMA classifies it as a TD already. This is at the west of Luzon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:45, July 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13W
Upgraded by both JMA and JTWC to a TD, but PAGASA still sees this as a low pressure area. Expected to be named Josie by PAGASA in the next few hours though. 13W is likely to become Wukong by next week. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:34, July 20, 2018 (UTC)


 * This is forecast to become a 75 mph category 1 storm by the JTWC (not sure if it'll become a typhoon by JMA standards), but it's also expected to recurve northwest after moving northeast and hit eastern China as a tropical storm in the same general area TS Ampil is heading. Ryan1000 02:18, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13W (Josie)
Finally recognized by PAGASA. Like it predecessors, it will enhance the southwest monsoon to the Philippines. For Taiwan, this may be a significant storm, even if it is not expected to make landfall there. China is the one who should be wary about this, since it will follow Ampil's path once it curves to the left later next week. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:36, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm assuming this will receive the name Wukong later on. This isn't expected to be a typhoon, but will affect Taiwan and China. -- Roy 25  16:41, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Seems that this will peak as a TD, as JTWC takes this to reach 30 knots. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:16, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC has significantly cut back on their forecast intensity for this when it hits China in a day or two. 13W probably won't do too much by now. Ryan1000 13:18, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

Why the hell do they name tropical depressions?!? Isn't that a bit awkward mate? §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 14:10, July 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * @Rara: It's only named by PAGASA, not the JMA. They only name storms that form in their region, which is less broad than the area monitored by the JMA, also tropical depressions can still be severe due to flooding rainfall and mudslides in the Philippines (see: Tropical Depression Winnie in 2004). Ryan1000 18:28, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * ok makes sense mate  §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 18:57, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, PAGASA always names TDs that form in their region. Probably the only agency that names TDs, unless there is something else I forgot about. This weakling TD will move up towards the region Ampil hit, and I really hope it doesn't steal a JMA name. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:28, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

Oh no, this might steal Wukong or Jongdari after all. JMA takes this to 35 knots (65 kph/40 mph) by Monday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:38, July 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Scratch what I said above. I believe JMA has issued its final advisory for this TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:38, July 23, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 13W (Josie)
Fortunately not a name-stealer for JMA (unlike PAGASA). JTWC has issued its final advisory for 13W. Along with the southwest monsoon, 13W caused widespread flooding in the Philippines though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:23, July 23, 2018 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Code orange, like 96W to its west. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:37, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now coded red by JTWC. -- Roy 25  18:24, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14W
JTWC upgrades this to a TD, and all of a sudden, the race for Wukong is on (somehow). However, this is still not visible in JMA's typhoon page. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:42, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * This system could approach typhoon status while remaining out to sea. The winner gets Wukong, and the loser gets Jongdari. Only this and 15W have a decent chance to be named, as 13W is expected to remain very weak. I can't believe there are 5 active systems here! 😲 ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:33, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 14W
TS on JTWC, still a TD on JMA (shown as TD c on JMA; TD a is 13W/Josie). Should be the storm that would receive the name Wukong, but given that 13W is forecast to become a TS (by JMA) on Monday too, this will most likely receive the name Jongdari instead. Due to its fishspinner status, only a 24-hour forecast for this storm is indicated in JMA's typhoon page, unlike 13W which happens to have a 12-hour forecast. This may even be Shanshan if 15W organizes faster. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:45, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Wukong
Ummm... this got Wukong. 13W is dead and 14W hasn't showed up as a TD on JMA's weather map. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:32, July 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wukong is predicted to peak at C1 equivalent typhoon as it heads north. Overall, this shouldn't be a huge concern. From what it looks like, 15W is a huge concern, especially for Japan.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   20:40, July 23, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Wukong
It's now a typhoon according to the JTWC, but it's still only a severe tropical storm by the JMA. Not expected to affect land while tropical, but it could head towards parts of Russia or Alaska as an extratropical storm. Ryan1000 12:31, July 25, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Wukong (2nd time)
Down to TS strength again, and forecast to dissipate soon. Ryan1000 14:01, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Wukong
Both agencies have issued their final advisories as it turns extratropical. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:51, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
New invest in the open Pacific according to Tropical Tidbits. May hit Japan too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:23, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Since we've got 8 storms so far and Maria is looking like our first serious retirement candidate this year, we can begin this section now. Without further ado, here are my calls so far:

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
JMA: PAGASA: And that's my calls so far. Anyone else have thoughts? Ryan1000 16:55, July 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Bolaven - 20% - Caused some damage in the Philippines, but it wasn't as bad as some of the late-season storms last year (Kai-Tak and Tembin), and I'm not seeing a retirement in this case.
 * Sanba - 10% - Wasn't as bad as Bolaven, but gets credit for the minor impacts regardless.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Caused some rainfall over a few pacific islands, but no damage or deaths were reported.
 * Ewiniar - 32% - Was a somewhat destructive flood event for parts of southern China, but it wasn't as severe as some past storms in the country (like Hato last year, for example). Gets credit, but I don't think it'll be retired.
 * Maliksi - 1% - Killed two in the Philippines, but was otherwise a fishspinner.
 * Gaemi - 2% - Caused minor damage and killed 3 people as it passed southern Taiwan, but it won't be retired for that.
 * Prapiroon - 1% - Killed a person in South Korea and contributed to extensive flooding in Japan, but it wasn't directly responsible for most of the damage there.
 * Maria - 28% - Current damage projections are only at 491 million dollars, even less than Ewiniar, but that may increase later on. And fortunately, only 1 person was killed. I was fearing far worse from Maria since she was stronger and bigger than Fitow 5 years ago and it hit the same area, but I guess not, thankfully.
 * Son-Tinh - 12% - Current damage projections are around 69 million dollars with 32 deaths, unfortunately, but that's probably not severe enough for retirement.
 * Ampil - 8% - Caused some flooding in China around Shanghai, but Ampil doesn't appear to have been too bad for them, surely not as severe as Ewiniar, let alone Maria, earlier in the season.
 * Wukong - 0% - Never affected any land.
 * Jongdari - ?? - Still active, but could hit Japan this weekend as a cat 2 typhoon or so.
 * All names - 0% - So far, none of their storms have met the PAGASA mandatory retirement criteria of 1 Billion PHP in damage and/or 300 deaths in the Philippines, so nothing is getting retired here as of now.

Roy25's prediction
Might as well add mine with Maria nearing land, and may be devastating.

Intensity colors: TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???

JMA:
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven ( 15% ) - Had caused some damage in the Phillippines, but this won't be retired
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba ( 10% ) - Killed quite alot but this also won't be going
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat ( 0% ) - Caused no damage and deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar ( 8% ) - Killed 8 and caused just over half a billion, but I doubt this name will go
 * <font color="#00faf4">Maliksi ( 0.001% ) - Didn't do too much other than 2 deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi ( 0.001% ) - Same as Maliksi, even with one extra death
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon ( 9% ) - While stronger, other than 1 death, this storm didn't do too much
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria ( 32% ) - As of now had caused $491 million in damage, and only 1 death so far (feared there would be more, but fortunately that didn't happen as of now).
 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh ( 10% ) - While it regenerated, it has caused 10 deaths and $17.5 million, but this won't go
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ampil (???) - Currently active

PAGASA
 * All names used this season ( 0% ) - Didn't met PAGASA requirement for retirement

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

-- Roy 25  18:32, July 10, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0 retirement projections
JMA names
 * Bolaven - 5% - Minor damage; Philippines has seen worse.
 * Sanba - 5% - Same as above.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Early super typhoon, but also a fishspinner.
 * Ewiniar - 20% - There is substantial damage in China, but China has seen more ferocious storms than this.
 * Maliksi - 5% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon in the Philippines and killed 2 people, but I don't think it will be decomissioned from the list. Storms such as Saola & Haikui '12, Trami '13, Fung-wong '14, Chan-hom & Linfa '15 and Doksuri '17 caused more disruption to the Philippines and did not get retired; I think the same thing applies to Maliksi.
 * Gaemi - 1% - 3 deaths, minor damage... uh, Gaemi will stay.
 * Prapiroon - 15% - No direct effects but this storm exacerbated the massive rain event in Japan which has killed more than 200 people. But if its 2000 incarnation did not get the boot, why should its 4th incarnation get it?
 * Maria - 35% - The missing link between the fishspinner Marie in 2014 and the devastating Atlantic Maria last year. A great spectacle, and fortunately not as destructive as everyone feared. Caused notable damage, but the low fatality count would surely lessen Maria's chances of retirement. However, the U.S. may still request to remove this (a la Yanyan/Tingting/Vicente) due to the eponymous Atlantic storm.

PAGASA names
 * Agaton to Caloy - 0% - Did not meet the criteria.
 * Domeng - 5% - Did not meet the criteria but I still gave it 5% because maybe – just maybe – PAGASA strikes this out of the list due to its relatively notable impacts.
 * Ester to Gardo - 0% - Same as the first 3 storms of the year.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:59, July 15, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:08, July 15, 2018 (UTC).

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: Based off of JTWC intensities. <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

International:

To reduce clutter and save space, only tropical systems that were declared at least a TD by both the JMA and JTWC are included.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">6% - Only slight impacts, not enough to get retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Weak name stealer, JTWC did not even consider this a tropical storm. It did cause some impacts which makes it somewhat memorable.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - More deadly than Bolaven, but less damage. The deaths slightly boost up my percentage. Another non-candidate for retirement, though.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - A tiny bit stronger than Bolaven, but still a weak fail. Like Bolaven, caused slightly memorable impacts.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement: <font color="#77A">0.001% - Basically a fishspinner, except for tiny impacts in Palau, the Caroline Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Amazing super typhoon in late March. As a bonus, it almost completely avoided land. Gets more credit for time of the year. A C5 would have earned it an "EO" rating.


 * <font color="#00faf4">04W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Although it was a piece of junk, I do have to give it a tiny bit of credit for not stealing a name despite JTWC considering it a tropical storm.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#3F0">34% - $573 million is a pretty significant damage bill which makes retirement an outside possibility. 15 deaths as well. But they have still seen much worse, plus this was a weak storm.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Another weakling, but with memorability that prevents it from falling to lower grades.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Maliksi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.5% - Impacts were insignificant. 2 deaths unfortunately.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Failed to make typhoon status, despite being so close.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.7% - Like Maliksi, insignificant impacts and few deaths. One additional death slightly increases my percentage.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Stronger than previous tropical storms, but still pretty weak overall.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * Retirement: 3% - Only 1 death and little impacts. However, it contributed to the devastating Japan floods, and as a result it has a boosted chance compared with other storms with the same impacts
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - At least it reached typhoon intensity by both agencies, even though it was near the bare minimum for typhoon strength.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0F0">28% - Looked like it would be a monster, but damage and deaths appear to be less than initially feared. Devastation was even less than Ewiniar unless more reports come in, and deaths were much less than Ewiniar.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Reached an incredible intensity, and would have been EO if it stayed out to sea.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0AF">10% - Very deadly, with 58 deaths and at least $69.1 million in damage. Since it mainly affected Vietnam, which has never retired a storm name before, I highly doubt this will be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - Credit for unexpectedly moving back out to sea and regenerating. However, the deaths and devastation prevent the grade from being any higher than this.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ampil :
 * Retirement: <font color="#77A">0.1% - Wikipedia reports nothing. It did strike China, so I'm still giving it a very tiny chance for now.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - Some credit for reaching STS status according to the JMA.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">13W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - At least it didn't steal a JMA name.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Wukong :
 * Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F90">D+ - Became a borderline typhoon, and only JMA failed to recognize it as a typhoon.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Jongdari :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Still active. Retirement prediction will be released upon dissipation.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Still active. Grade will be released upon dissipation.

PAGASA:
 * No name meets their retirement criteria yet.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 06:46, July 19, 2018 (UTC))

Harvey's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#666">0% or <font color="#666">N/A, <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9% , <font color="#00FFFF">1-9% , <font color="#00D5D5">10-19% , <font color="#00A0A0">20-29% , <font color="#00A000">30-39% , <font color="#FFC800">40-49% , <font color="#FF8800">50-59% , <font color="#E80000">60-69% , <font color="#B40000">70-79% , <font color="#800000">80-89% , <font color="#000000">90-99% , <font color="#000080">100% 

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

JMA Names:


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00FFFF">7%  - Only did minor damage. Unlikely to be retired.
 * Grade:  F  - Weak name stealer that was not even considered a TS by the JTWC. Not any lower because it at least spanned two calendar years.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00D5D5">12%  - Like Bolaven, it's a weak tropical storm that caused minor damage, but a higher death count and a lower cost total. Also unlikely to be retired.
 * Grade:  F  - It's also a weak name stealer like Bolaven. Not really memorable.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement:  <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001%  - Aside from the minor impacts to Palau, the Caroline Islands and the Mariana Islands, there was no other impact caused by this storm.
 * Grade:  A+++  - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">04W :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A 
 * Grade:  F  - The storm mostly failed. But I do give it credit for not stealing a name.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00A000">37%  - Currently the most destructive, causing $573 million USD damage and 15 deaths. It does have a chance of getting retired.
 * Grade:  A+++  - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Maliksi :
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh :
 * <font color="#ccffff">Ampil :

PAGASA Names: No name meets their retirement criteria yet.

Notes:

Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  06:05, July 23, 2018 (UTC)