Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC)

Future start
Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC
 * We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC)

And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC)

I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC)

Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC)

Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC)

1st CSU Forecast
Here it is! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU Forecast
It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

A link is here. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC)

There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Northern Leeward Islands
I'm not sure why they tagged this, but I'm guessing these are the remnants of 97L that are showing up with 0% on the TWO. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:45, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

Not looking too likely to develop, unless shear lessens over the next day or two. Emily's 6th anniversary comes in 8 days. Don't know if Ernesto will come before that. Ryan1000 18:10, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

Agree with you Ryan the wave near the cape verde island has more oppurtunity than this and Cobra strike I think that the remanents of 97L already pass the Eastern Carribean I think they are near the western Carribean.Allanjeffs 18:19, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

I doubt this will become tropical or subtropical. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:07, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

This is not the Remnants of 97L, it is a brand new wave that passed through the islands. 01:09, July 5, 2012 (UTC)

BTW, 96.242.128.215 left the above post. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, July 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think the next system will likely form in the Central Atlantic. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 03:46, July 5,
 * 2012(UTC)
 * In a while it will. But not now. EPac is the only basin that's (really) alive right now. WPac may get a storm or two soon, but nothing strong. Ryan1000 05:17, July 5, 2012 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Sorry for the errors I am making in the page anyways we have invest 91L probably won`t develop but something to look at.Allanjeffs 18:45, July 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * This might have a chance to form.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:37, July 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * Never mind. It's gone. Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:42, July 18, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Florida Straits
AOI at 10% sandwiched between Cuba and Florida. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:08, July 22, 2012 (UTC)

Now near 0%. Nothing likely to come here, while 90E is up to 90%. Ryan1000 13:31, July 23, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:ENE of Bermuda
10% atm. Not too likely to develop. Ryan1000 12:22, July 24, 2012 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
I disagree it has a shot at becoming Ernesto and is now invest 98L.Allanjeffs 17:45, July 24, 2012 (UTC)

40% may become Ernesto .Allanjeffs 18:04, July 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * It has an eye feature now, apparently. It looks very similar to the beginnings of Chris in terms of looks. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:19, July 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Any intensity estimates? 184.3.124.155 20:15, July 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * :: Grr....the NHC hasn't updated yet! This system looks impressive on satellite too. The system is beginning to spin rapidly and a very small "eye-like" feature is visible. This should rather be at very high chance of development or is already TD five or Ernesto. STO12 (talk) 22:49, July 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * @ 184 it currently has winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1007 mbar. Supportstorm (talk) 22:57, July 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * It doesn't have much time left. Maybe a day or so until it turns extratropical. I'm still not 100% convinced this will become Ernesto, but we'll see. Ryan1000 12:08, July 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%. Now then, you were saying? Ryan1000 12:32, July 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * 98L is about to hit waters as cold as 50 degrees Fahrenheit. It really has no chance now and the winds are now below TS force. Supportstorm (talk) 13:29, July 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * I knew it wouldn't develop; Ernesto will have to wait 'till August. Ryan1000 14:50, July 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * I am almost sure this will be reclassified to an unnamed tropical storm in post analysis just wait and see it has convection it has persist for 12 hours and it has 50mph winds.Allanjeffs 21:30, July 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * I also think this will be upgraded into a tropical cyclone in post analysis. Many people tend to say storms like this and 92L don't become classified as tropical cyclones due to their short persistence of convection, but 98L has lasted for a long while.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:03, July 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'd give this a 60% chance of a post season upgrade, but as I said earlier, I'm not 100% convinced this had been Ernesto. I have limited hopes on 92L being upgraded, and I'd give Beryl a 50-60% chance of being upgraded to a hurricane. However, as of now, if I could make any post-season upgrade, I would upgrade this to tropical storm 5. However, none of Beryl, 92L, and 98L are certain to be upgraded. NHC always goes conservative...We'll have to wait and see what they say in post-season. Ryan1000 00:01, July 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * they upgrade the unnamed tc in 2011 they can upgrade this one.Allanjeffs 18:43, July 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * I guess the reason NHC didn't upgrade it was it had no threat to land. They probrably didn't upgrade it because they didn't think it was worth the trouble to do so. It wasn't gonna hit anyone anyways. I'm convinced it could have been named, but I'm not going to say it's certain. As I said above, we'll have to wait and see what NHC says in post-season. We can't be certain of anything yet. Ryan1000 23:10, July 29, 2012 (UTC)

99L.INVEST

 * this one is at 20% and looks very promising I say that this could be Ernesto at the near future we need to pay close attention too.Allanjeffs 14:12, July 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm not totally sure if this will develop, but if it does I'm thinking it will move into the southern Caribbean and strengthen. The HPC keeps a high pressure center near the west coast of Florida so I'm sure that it will track either into Central America or make it into the Gulf of Mexico. The wave before is kind of impressive, but I think the low after this one will have the highest likelihood of becoming something. Keeping a close eye on this because I'm spending a week in Galveston for vacation next week. Supportstorm (talk) 10:38, July 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * The models have a good spread on this one. One idea is that the storm will head toward the southern parts of the Caribbean, where it will likely be torn apart my the impressive shear and tradewinds and potentially re-develop in the Gulf. Then there's another idea that it'll head more north, into the Virgin Islands. The latter idea has more strength to it.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:50, July 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * SHIPS sees a hurricane in the long run...worth watching, but i'm not convinced it will explode in the long run. Wind shear is not favorable in the Caribbean, and neither is it where it is right now. I think it will likely become something in the GOM in the long run, but not now. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Sometimes we see storms blow up in late July/early August (a great example being Allen, but the Caribbean was really lucky from him). We'll have to wait and see. GFS takes this running straightforward through the Caribbean, but not as a well-organized storm. The ECMWF (euro) model doesn't really do much at all with this. Ryan1000 18:09, July 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now 30%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  17:57, July 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto is coming...likely only going to be a TS, maybe a hurricane as SHIPS still indicates, but the season is indeed starting to ramp up. Ryan1000 19:40, July 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * Awesome. If it does make it to the Gulf of Mexico during my stay I'll upload some images. Supportstorm (talk) 19:48, July 31, 2012 (UTC)

Storms like this really make me nervous. The models take it into the Caribbean and steadily strengthen it. This is definitely one to watch. The Ivan-like track forecast deep into the Caribbean really concerns me. -- SkyFury 22:03, July 31, 2012 (UTC)

I'd be very surprised if it pulls an Allen, let alone an Ivan (regarding intensity, not path). The conditions in the Caribbean aren't completely favorable for intensification, and there is shear in this storm's way. It won't bomb out over the next few days, but a TS seems very possible with this storm, now that we have an orange circle with it. This wave kind of reminds me of the last Ernesto of late August 2006, in terms of both future intensity and track. If I had to make a forecast path for 99L, I would take it across the Caribbean, then northwest towards the GOM (by then potentially a C1 hurricane), and I don't know what will happen after that. There are too many factors that far out. For all we know, the AOI currently over the northern lesser antillies could shear this up before anything big happens with 99L. Ryan1000 22:54, July 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now up to 50%.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:41, July 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep, we're gonna see Ernesto. And at roughly the same time we got Emily last year. I don't expect it to get past 65 mph until it reaches the western Caribbean. By then things could be very ominous with this storm. Ryan1000 00:04, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * This looks to be poise to be a hurricane the Caribbean is becoming favorable for intensification to occur.Allanjeffs 01:53, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Code red! 60% for the next 48 hours. However, 99L is undergoing some shear as we speak, and it'll probrably be down to 50 or 40% soon. It'll probrably become named when it reaches the lesser antillies and a hurricane when it reaches the greater antillies. Ryan1000 13:44, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Currently the model consensus is expected to get to 50 kt by the time it reaches Jamaica (the shear place). The question is is how well it can fight that shear.-- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:47, August 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * If it can fight it good enough, we could see it becoming a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan channel, but as I said earlier, the shear could also get a hold of this and it might never strengthen past minimal TS strength at all. Ryan1000 16:17, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I say 80% or 90% we could see a renumber tonight.Allanjeffs 16:58, August 1, 2012 (UTC)

Currently upped to 70%, but it is still fighting some shear right now. I wouldn't be surprised if it is numbered before the day is out, or sometime tomorrow morning. Ryan1000 19:46, August 1, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five
Hear ye hear ye! TD5! AL, 05, 2012080118,, BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:13, August 1, 2012 (UTC)

its td 5 now.AL, 05, 2012080118,, BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M you talk to soon ryan even though I agree it is fighting shear. I knew it that this would become a td today.Allanjeffs 20:13, August 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * NHC has this becoming a hurricane at 120 hours.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:41, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Um, talk too soon? I said "I wouldn't be surprised if it is numbered before the day is out, or sometime tomorrow morning". Yeah, I'm not surprised it became numbered; the question is will it continue to strengthen at the rate it is now, or will the shear gain a hold of it for the next 3-4 days? I personally think that the shear will keep it in check for the next few days and eventually become a hurricane when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. Ryan1000 22:16, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Oh, and one more thing I should say is, although most of the models are in agreement of a west-northwest path through the Caribbean towards Jamacia in the next 5 days, there is currently no consensus on TD 5's future intensity. The most reliable of all the models (ECMWF) sees a strong band of wind shear coming down on this in the next few days and they kill it off by Saturday. But the GFS thinks the shear will stay north of it and they keep it steadily strengthening, like NHC says. The other models are all over the place on the strength of this storm. As I said earlier, the question isn't where is it going, but how strong will it be along the way. Ryan1000 22:36, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * When I mean you talk to soon I mean that you write minutes before renumber if you had write after you could have been the first to write about td 5 and i agree for the near term td 5 will be affect by shear.Allanjeffs 00:45, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, at least I didn't say "no, it has no chance of becoming numbered later today". But anyways, the upper greater antillies (particularly Jamacia) should watch out for this storm. By then it could be a hurricane. And after that, I'm still not sure. Ryan1000 01:02, August 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * I expect this to become C2 Hurricane Ernesto. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:36, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Even with a bad initialization, the GFS continues with a strong cyclone in the West Caribbean. Looks like at this time its another battle between the Euro and the GFS. However it looks like Ernesto will reach favourable conditions no matter what in the WCarb and could become something to watch later on! Yqt1001 (talk) 04:43, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Well, that depends. NHC updated their intensity forecast just rescently and they don't expect it to be a hurricane when it reaches the western Caribbean anymore. Surprisingly, they're actually more generous than the other models are, which keep it weak until it does reach the western Caribbean. NHC keeps it slowly but surely strengthening, while the other models think the shear will keep it in check for a while. We'll have to wait and see how well TD 5 fares in the midst of all the shear that's out there. GFS forecasted Debby right, but Debby was an almost clueless storm to forecast. Ryan1000 13:17, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

It probably be upgrade to ts Ernesto at the 5pm advisory this will probably be a hurricane in the caribbean if shear doesn`t affect it.Allanjeffs 17:46, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

The key word, of course, being "if". I think it will be sheared a bit while it's in the Caribbean, which is why I wouldn't go past category 1 intensity when it reaches the westernmost islands. After that, though, it will be out of unfavorable conditions and it could explode in the GOM. And yeah, I wouldn't at all be surprised if it is upgraded later today. NHC thinks it won't be upgraded until after it passes the islands, but they could be wrong. They also only put up watches for the lessers, though I would make those warnings if I were them. Ryan1000 17:52, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ernesto
We have ts Ernesto the 5th of the season.AL, 05, 2012080218,, BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 40, 1008, TS<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">, 34, NEQ, 100, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">, M,Allanjeffs 20:06, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Yep.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:18, August 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * While it has dry air trying to slow it down right now, Ernesto is completely different than yesterday.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:17, August 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now I know that this storm is way out there, but is there any chance that this thing could make landfall on the Texas coast? Most models I've seen have Ernesto heading into Central America and impacting Mexico. The NHC, so far, has Ernesto heading into the Yucatan and emerging out into the GOM. Climatologically speaking, most storms that take this path do end up in the northwestern gulf states. Supportstorm (talk) 21:07, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Straight to 50mph we may also need to watch near Africa. that tw looks suspiciousAllanjeffs 21:12, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * @Suportstorm:It might hit the Texas coast, but not all storms do that at this time of year. Dean, which formed a little later in 2007, ended up in Mexico, along with Felix in Nicaragua, because the ridge of high pressure was stronger, keeping them further south. If the ridge stays strong with Ernesto as well, we could see it head south of Texas and hit Mexico instead. And since Ernesto looks rather weak on the sattelite imagery, the forecasts from GFS and the euro model aren't too unlikely. The ECMWF takes it straight into Honduras as a very weak TS while GFS does the same for Mexico. I wouldn't say the U.S. is in Ernesto's sights right now. The only model that takes Ernesto up to a hurricane and into the greater antillies is the HWRF, which is what the NHC is basing their forecast off of. However, given Ernesto's sattelite appearance, that seems too agressive if you ask me. Ryan1000 23:59, August 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Thanks Ryan, it is difficult to completely tell where it's going. The GFS, like you said, takes it into Mexico, but many other models are suggesting it will head into the Gulf of Mexico in a nearly consistent path . What are the most consistent weather models? Supportstorm (talk) 00:39, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, Supportstorm, the most reliable of all the models NHC uses is the euro (ECMWF) model. Though that model, in the case of Ernesto, is very underwhelmed by him. The euro model only sees it heading into Honduras as a weak tropical storm. GFS also isn't too generous, and they're probrably the second most reliable model NHC uses. The HWRF is also pretty reliable, but they haven't always been accurate in intensity forecasting. You can see some of the reliable models on this model map from Wunderground. You can see the GFS, Euro, HWRF, RUC, and NAM models there, and also look at other historical weather facts(note:GFS is the model currently shown). Ryan1000 01:38, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Ernesto getting a huge bout of convection as it nears the islands.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:17, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Thank you for explaining it to me. I am relatively new at using models so it's great to have that option in tracking hurricanes. On another note, yeah it does looks like Ernesto is gaining some convection near it's center. Supportstorm (talk) 02:49, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * This storm really scares me. Wind shear has been dropping like a stone across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and it's got 20 kts of westerly shear running over it right now and winds just jumped 10 kts in six hours. If the forecast track holds and Ernesto reaches the western Caribbean with minimal land interaction, we're in trouble. And bear in mind, the stronger Ernesto gets, the harder it'll take the break in the ridge. Either way, I don't like it. This time next week, we could have a very dangerous hurricane headed for the Gulf Coast. The next 7-10 days are gonna be very interesting. And Ryan, I trust the GFS a whole lot more than I trust the ECMWF. For the past two years, GFS has been money. I'm sure not buying the ECMWF solution now. It's the only major model that kills this thing. -- SkyFury 06:14, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * If the GFS is the model to use then I'm a bit concerned. It has changed quiet a bit from yesterday, most of the plots now take it into the GOM, and very few into Mexico like it previously did. Plus the model intensity are getting stronger. Supportstorm (talk) 11:10, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, you have the right to your opinion Eric, and I don't blame you. ECMWF is too unenthusiastic with Ernesto. If the current NHC track holds true, I think Ernesto could, in the long run, threaten parts of Texas, possibly the Houston area. Some parts of Galveston and Gilchrist are still in ruins after Ike almost 4 years ago. I think it'll peak at about 115-120 mph in the gulf, but if it RI's quickly enough, we could see a 135-140 mph storm. Ernesto isn't your typical weak TS either. It may not look very well organized, but it fought a trainload of shear from a tropical upper trophospheric trough near the lesser antillies and it still became a named storm. That's impressive if you ask me. It was rescently downed to 45 mph, but it's still becoming better organized despite that wind shear and the worst of Ernesto's struggles are probrably over by now. From here on out, things are gonna go downhill. Rapidly downhill. Ryan1000 11:57, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Update, back up to 50 mph now. NHC's more convinced the northward turn will happen in the western Caribbean now, and so are the other models (well, except the Euro). The million dollar question is where will it go in the GOM. Which state will it hit? And where it hits, how strong will Ernesto be by then? Ryan1000 18:25, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Just spent 20 mins writing a post and the entire thing was erased when there was an edit conflict. My post was not in the box it was supposed to be in, it just magically disappeared. God I hate this damn page. Anyway. The GFS keeps wanting to weaken it in the central Caribbean before kinda sorta restrengthening it in the western Caribbean and keeping it south. I'm just not buying that solution. The statistical models in general have been very underwhelmed with this storm. The ECMWF no longer dissipates the storm but it keeps a very strong ridge and runs it into Belize. That's a more plausible solution and global models have diverged on how strong the ridge is gonna be. If the dynamical models are right, we could be in serious trouble. The GFDL seems to be lowballing the intensity a little bit and has a very easterly track. That seems like an unrealistic solution at this point. The HWRF however, brings Ernie right through the Yucatan Channel as a Category 2 hurricane, headed for Louisiana. Things would get ugly quick if that happens. The track and any possible land interaction all depends on how strong that ridge is. -- SkyFury 18:54, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * The strongest model with Ernesto is right now LGEM which takes Ernesto into category 3 status. Also a lot of the models are looking at some sort of quick strengthening event at about 108 hours. Also looks like the models have shifted up north to an area between Chetumal, Belize to even Cuba. I know its 50 mph, but sheesh, at first glance it looks like an open wave.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:21, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Sorry about the page Eric. It's deleted some of my posts too. And yeah, I'm not convinced it will stay weak and run into Central America. I just get the unfortunate feeling it'll turn towards the north and towards the gulf coast as a strong major hurricane. The environment in the Caribbean is just way too favorable for it to remain a weak TS all the way through. How strong the ridge stays is important to determining it's track, but it's intensity isn't going to be low. The stronger it gets, the more likely it is to barrel northward towards the GOM. It's track is still disputable once it gets in the GOM, and although I currently think Texas/Louisiana are the main states in question, everyone from Florida to Texas needs to be on alert from Ernesto. I have a very bad feeling about this storm. Ryan1000 20:48, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto is getting a nice CDO burst... now its looking the part of a strong tropical storm, and not a wave.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:08, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * I agree, Ryan. The global model solutions just don't seem realistic. The circulation is well defined and the storm is getting better organized and shear is on the decline. I see no reason why it would simply dissipate. The current shear has been somewhat stubborn and will probably keep it from strengthening too much, but I still think it's gonna be about a high end category 1/low end category 2 by the time it reaches the Yucatan Channel. If the shear persists a little more than forecast, it could be weaker, but I think the shear is gonna drop off by the time it reaches the Gulf, where I think it could get as strong as a category 3. We'll see. -- SkyFury 22:18, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think the reason why they think it will run into Central America is because of it's forward speed, over 20 mph at this moment. Little Ernie here is moving so fast he'll be south of Jamacia by midday sunday. But by then I expect it to be a strong TS or weak hurricane. And given the conditions in the western Caribbean, and Ernesto's small size, I also wouldn't be surprised if he rapidly intensifies there. Also, by then, I expect it's forward speed to slow down significantly, enough so it can turn northward and into the GOM. Not good news if that happens, but it's very probable. I don't blame the global models for their (underwhelming) forecasts though. Eric, if that wind shear persists for just one more day, he'll still be moving at over 20 mph. That's such a fast forward speed, Ernsto won't get a chance to turn northward and he will run into Central America like the Euro model earlier indicated. The thing is though, I just can't see that happening. The shear is dying away as we speak. By tomorrow, I expect the shear to be completely gone (or almost completely gone) and expect Ernesto to be a strong, well organized tropical storm with 60-65 mph winds, and by Sunday or Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane on our hands. I still can't trust some of the models though. They're being way too unenthusiastic with a storm that's moving into near-perfect conditions, and strengthening as we speak. Ryan1000 22:40, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Latest sattelite imagery isn't looking pretty for us. Ernesto got a lot better organized. Hurricane status actually might not be out of the question for later today, if it continues to organize. Ryan1000 03:40, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto weakened despite being well-organized... 50 mph, 1008 mbar. Awfully high pressure for a moderate tropical storm, isn't it? --HurricaneMaker99 14:55, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I don't think that the Hurricane Hunters are collecting good data right now. The storm is obviously nearing hurricane strength and the fact that it is weaker than our newly formed storm Florence is not right Supportstorm (talk) 16:59, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi: Central Carribean
0%.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  17:58, July 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * This one won't develop...but it may be the cause of some of the shear 99L may run into. Ryan1000 19:40, July 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * the wave leaving Africa and a possible trough split are the next things we need to look for possible development.Allanjeffs 20:08, July 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * 10%Allanjeffs 13:55, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now invest 91L.The Atlantic is becoming Active like the WPac was this week meanwhile the Eastern pacific is still sleeping. If the two Aois develop we may be talking About Ernesto, Florence and Gordon.Allanjeffs 16:50, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if this one will develop though. It might become Florence (or Gordon, if 90L becomes Florence first), but it won't be long-lived anyways, nor pose much of a threat to land, aside from waves on the east coast and rain (much obliged). I'm still very worried about what Ernesto might do next week. Stay tuned on him. He's the closest (and possibly biggest) threat of all 3 of these systems. Ryan1000 18:02, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
After an investless July we have 2 in one day. No model really shows development of this, but it's heading over the fuel that is the GoM in a favourable environment so it might be able to pull development. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:38, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Thank god. The drought-stricken southern states over there could use a good soaking from this. And investless July Yqt? At least there was invest 98L from late July of this year (which has a descent chance to be upgraded post-season, see above), so we haven't really been that quiet since our record start. Oh and BTW, 20%. Ryan1000 18:07, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Indeed, but I really hope this thing doesn't rain on my beach vacation down on the Georgia coast next week. This one kind of reminds me of Jerry in 1995. The BAMs take it into the GOM, but I think it'll move over Florida and recurve like Jerry did, probably dissipating over southern Georgia. And, like Jerry, it could reach minimal tropical storm strength. -- SkyFury 19:00, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wow, this storm is developing a touch faster than I think. It doesn't look the part, but, wow, it wants to be a TD.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:15, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * We've been getting rather active, but at least it's not like some past years. We should be going into El Nino soon, but the tropics don't look like that for now after seeing no storms in July, we could have 3 before the first week of August is over. Amazing. Ryan1000 20:48, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * down to 10%Allanjeffs 12:04, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Wave off of Africa
GFS likes this one. NHC has given it 10% this morning. Yqt1001 (talk) 05:58, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">This could be a threat in the long run, but Ernesto ^ is probrably going to be the bigger story over the next week. Ryan1000 12:00, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Whoa, woah, woah! Just after I posted my above post, this thing jumped up to 30%. And...Invested? Ryan1000 12:05, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Is this our next depression of the year? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:54, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Probable.Allanjeffs 13:27, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

What intensities are the computer models forecasting? 65.34.84.50 13:40, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
I was looking at this for a while, I knew the NHC was going to poke at it. Anyways, on that note, the models are looking at a 55 to 65 kt peak within 120 hours.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:04, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes Florence, but as I said earlier, Ernesto's going to be a bigger threat over the next week. By the time he makes landfall, this should be our next big storm. Ryan1000 14:12, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">the next wave leaving Africa is the one that we need t be concern as the gfs is prediction that Gordon if this becomes Florence to be a threat to Florida.Allanjeffs 15:59, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

50%...Florence is coming... Ryan1000 18:25, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks that way, assuming 91L doesn't beat it to the punch. The models are pretty widely split on the intensity forecast, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see another hurricane out of this. I don't think it will threaten the US though. The only land I think it'll pose a threat to is Bermuda. But boy the tropics are getting interesting. I love this time of year! -- SkyFury 19:08, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep... 90L is getting very organized. I actually won't be surprised if this is upgraded to a tropical depression very soon.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:14, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, Canada also isn't out of the question, as was the case with Igor 2 years ago. But then again, I wouldn't count on it. Usually storms like this don't reach the U.S. when they form this far east. A few notable exceptions include Hugo, Georges, and most notably, Ivan. Ryan1000 20:48, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * 90L up to 70%... likely TD on the next shot.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:26, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Have you see the Gfs if this become Florence and 91L Gordon the gfs show three other storm forming near Cape verde Island this month will be epic if it verifies.Allanjeffs 01:08, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Up on ATCF, 6th TD of the year and likely to become Florence! Yqt1001 (talk) 00:54, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Our first td near the cape verde islands has form.Allanjeffs 02:02, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Oh and, in case anyone is wondering, we didn't get Franklin, the "F" storm of last year, until August 12. That means, we'll be ahead of last year when this becomes named! And by more than a week too! How impressive. Amazing. Ryan1000 02:36, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I really don't understand this forecast. NHC forecasts it to dissipate in just a few days, talking about dry air and colder water. I don't have a clue what they're talking about. I looked at both the water vapor and the SSTs and I don't see any of these negative factors. The air ahead of the storm actually looks a lot more moist than what's ahead of Ernesto. The SSTs do look slightly cooler, but it doesn't look significant enough to cause weakening. The shear isn't great, but it's expected to ease of over the next 24 hours. I find this a very puzzling forecast. -- SkyFury 03:17, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

I highly doubt it will die, but even if it does become Florence, it won't affect anyone anyways. Maybe Bermuda and Canada in the long run, but no one else. But I don't have any future vision of seeing this turn back south to the Caribbean islands as a subtropical depression anytime soon. If anythng I think it'll turn north and out to sea. What would make the NHC think it would turn south? Ryan1000 03:40, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence
The sixth storm of the season has come to us now we are tie with the Eastern Pacific.Allanjeffs 11:48, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yep. And NHC now wants to take FLorence north of the lessers as a non-tropical low in the long run. I still don't see that, since environmental conditions aren't too unfavorable for additional development, but there is some stable air over the storm. And Ernesto is starting to get his act together. Maybe we could see a hurricane from him as soon as later today. His forward speed is slowing down to 18 mph, he's starting to expand, and the latest advisory on Ernesto places it at 60 mph, 1001 mbars. Ryan1000 14:37, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Bahamas
NHC looking at the potential in this storm, 10%.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:19, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Um, CobraStrike, this was the same AOI that passed by the virgins and PR a few days ago. This isn't a new AOI...Allan posted a 10% reincarnation of it above the header for 90L. Ryan1000 14:30, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

New Hurricane Wiki Main Page
I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go:

Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here.

Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it.

Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I like the new homepage. Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * This new homepage is truly awesome! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:38, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - No.
 * Beryl - 20% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Chris - 0% - It's a early hurricane, but I still doubt it.
 * Debby - 25% - Wasn't as bad as I expected.
 * Ernesto - ?


 * If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that, meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Alberto - 0.1% - Some slight effects in the Southeast, but it's not likely.
 * 2) Beryl - 10% - Lots of Memorial Day hype, but damage will probably not be enough for retirement.
 * 3) Chris - 0.01% - A rare and unusual storm! The 0.01% is for what he accomplished.
 * 4) Debby - 20% - Loads of flooding in Florida.
 * 5) Ernesto - TBA - Still Active


 * We've started this already? Really? Lol. -- SkyFury 21:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I mentioned it's not worth the trouble to start it after just few (fish) storms in the season. Unless Debby turns out to be threatening for Corpus Christi, I won't be posting mine for a while. Ryan1000 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's a little to early to do retirements, the next chance for me to post mine will be when a big hurricane is threatening a land mass, Debby came close, but it just decided to be picked up by the trough. 96.242.128.215 18:03, July 3, 2012 (UTC)