Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is coming up, and the betting pools are up. I'll make some predictions for this season later, but if any of you guys have pre-season predictions, feel free to post them below. Ryan1000 03:56, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * CPHC will be merging their site to the NHC's in May. This should make finding advisories for CPAC storms even easier. Won't change the pace of CPHC TCRs though. Here's some other changes for this season.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:40, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * ...and the CPHC site is gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:24, May 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * The 2019 Pacific hurricane season has now officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  00:00, May 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: In the Open Pacific
What on Earth? An invest suddenly popped up out of nowhere. 30/50 chance of formation and has good model support. We could be seeing history here. -  PORY GONAL  20:32, January 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Woah, wasn't expecting that. Looks like GFS takes it up to 50 mph/1000 mb, which means we can see a record for the earliest named storm in the East Pacific's history. Guess I'll cheer Alvin on, lol. I just hope that this isn't a sign for what's to come later in the season, though... T  G  2 0 1 9 21:12, January 3, 2019 (UTC)

What is this I don't even...well I'll be damned, I never thought I would ever see an AOI in the EPac proper with a good chance of forming in January, of all times of year. There has never been a storm to form this early in the EPac proper since reliable data began in 1949, and only Ekeka of 1992 and Pali 3 years ago (which was arguably a continuation of 2015's extreme activity) did so east of the dateline in the CPac. If this becomes Alvin, I'll be overjoyed. Far out to sea, fishspinner, and unique time of year, what's not to like? Also, slightly off-topic, but if you guys want to vote on the nominees for the Hurricane Hall of Fame for 2019, all basins are open. This might prompt some more activity on the forums for that, seeing as how the SHem storms and Pabuk aren't getting much attention. Ryan1000 02:54, January 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * I know right, I have never seen an AOI in the EPac proper in January before... I was really shocked to see this. a lot of records will be broken if this forms, holy sh!t. And if it becomes subtropical, it might be the first EPac proper subtropical storm ever recorded (I think?). I'm totally rooting for Alvin to come out of this. And about the HOF, I hope to vote this weekend. ~  Steve 🎉   2019  is here!  🎆  05:19, January 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * I've been checking the NHC webpage out of habit for a while now, didn't think i'd actually see something pop up. C'mon Alvin, I believe in you! Send Help Please  (talk) 12:53, January 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances have dropped for this, now 30/30. T  G  2 0 1 9 21:00, January 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dropped to 0/0. Looks like the long wait begins once again (assuming it doesn't make a comeback, which seems unlikely.  ~ Roy25     It's 2019!!!  |  🎉     02:48, January 06, 2019 (UTC)


 * I guess this is gone for good without becoming Alvin. The extremely long wait until May starts up again. 😕 It looks like it's at the southernmost part of a system currently striking my area. ~  Steve 🎉   2019  is here!  🎆  07:36, January 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Well, that was funny. Shame it didn’t become named. Leeboy100 Hello! 00:31, January 17, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
The first AOI in the EPac’s season boundaries, this large area of disturbed weather appears in the TWO some several hundred miles south of Mexico. It has a 10/20 chance of formation as of now. The GFS model shows it becoming a 1009 mbar storm before dying off.  Sandy 156   :)  00:26, May 16, 2019 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invested according to TropicalTidbits. Still 10/20. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:54, May 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Dr. Masters made a new blog post discussing 91E (so apparently the above AOI back in January was 90E, unless the NHC made a mistake skipping over invest numbers like they did with Beryl of last year). In any instance, SST's near Mexico are cooler than average as of May 14, which, if it persists later on, would could surpress stronger TC's near Mexico this season. However, SST's are warmer than usual near Hawaii, so the people there may need to watch out for a potential hurricane later this season, especially after the close call they got with Lane last year (which still caused heavy flooding even without making landfall). This AOI shouldn't become anything serious, but it could get the EPac going with another May storm, and the Atlantic may still have a chance to spin up a May storm over the next two weeks before the AHS begins on June 1. While it's not too likely, it would make for a record 5th consecutive early start for the Atlantic, which would be nice to see. Ryan1000 16:17, May 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/20 and off the 2-day TWO as of 11:00 am PDT.  Sandy 156   :)  23:14, May 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 0/30 as of the latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  23:23, May 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now 10/40 and back up into the 2-day TWO. This might have a chance of becoming Alvin or a sad tropical depression for the next few days.  Sandy 156   :)  17:47, May 18, 2019 (UTC)


 * Nevermind, it’s gradually dying off. It’s now 10/30 in the latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  07:10, May 19, 2019 (UTC)

Although it's only at 0/20 for now, it could become Alvin later in the week as it moves west-northwest away from the coast of southern Mexico. Ryan1000 19:28, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/30 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:58, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Beatissima (talk) 06:35, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

10/50, looks like this might become Alvin after all.... Ryan1000 11:45, May 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50 per latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  05:18, May 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * 30/50 as it approaches Nic. Some models have it cross into the Atlantic while others have it stay in the basin.  Sandy 156   :)  05:21, May 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Decreased to 20/40 as the invest hits in between Nicaragua and Honduras.  Sandy 156   :)  14:30, May 23, 2019 (UTC)

10/30. Dr. Masters said there's a possibility that this AOI (or another central amerigan gyre/CAG, for short) could move into the Atlantic in about a week and become TS Barry if 91E doesn't move offshore in his latest blog post. Michael, for perspective, also developed from a CAG last October, though the Atlantic probably won't get a storm as strong as him in June. In that post he also mentions that the Atlantic has a 30% chance of being either above or below-normal, with a 40% chance of average, though nothing can be ruled out in these early stages. We're currently in a weak El Nino but expected to transition into ENSO-neutral later this year. The EPac, however, is expected to have another busy season, with 15-22 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-8 majors, i.e. a 70% chance of being above-average this year. Also, with the previous post that he mentioned with SST's being warmer than usual near Hawaii (but cooler than average near Mexico), they may need to watch out later this year. Ryan1000 19:23, May 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now it’s 30/40.  Sandy 156   :)  18:03, May 24, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 10/30 and conditions are expected to be unfavorable for further development. For an AOI that's been spinning around for the past 10 days, one would've expected it to become something by now, but I guess not... Ryan1000 09:15, May 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back to 10/20, not going to form if unfavorable conditions persist.  Sandy 156   :)  17:44, May 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. Alvin might need to wait a little longer. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:27, May 27, 2019 (UTC)

And now down to 0/0. Looks like this won't become Alvin after all; also, as a side note, the NHC put down the CPac as an area for TCR's on their site, so we'll include them at the end of this year, since now they'll come out faster. Ryan1000 10:12, May 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * The disturbance is gone and off the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  17:34, May 29, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Another disturbance formed in the EPac just a few hundred miles south from Mexico. It’s at 10/20. The disturbance will go northeast where it might even hit Southeast Mexico or Guatemala.  Sandy 156   :)  18:06, May 28, 2019 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and up to 20/20.  Sandy 156   :)  01:01, May 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0. This disturbance will not form imo.  Sandy 156   :)  18:37, May 30, 2019 (UTC)

Nothing else is expected to come in the next 5 days...but the EPac is warming up a bit and will probably get a named storm or two around early-mid June. May is only suposed to get a named storm once every two years anyways. Ryan1000 04:08, May 31, 2019 (UTC)

June
Began a short while ago, but nothing is expected to form in the immediate future here. Ryan1000 01:58, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Mexico
This one just popped up. 0/20. Beatissima (talk) 00:24, June 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * We haven’t seen a single storm in this basin yet; this season has the latest EPac start since reliable records began in 1971. The Pacific Ocean seems to be quiet this year due to a Modoki El Niño that’s developing.  Sandy 156   :)  00:41, June 20, 2019 (UTC)

It seems that the EPac burned it's hype out after the record ACE this basin had from last year. It'll probably pick up a little bit later on. And yes, we've now got the latest start to any EPac season on record, whenever we get our first depression, if it even comes from this AOI. Ryan1000 03:43, June 20, 2019 (UTC)

Seems likely that something will come out of this system. It should be noted if this develops, it would mark the latest start for any Pacific hurricane season (including CPAC) since 1964. Doesn't seem likely it'll be strong at the moment, though. -  MASTERGARFIELD  13:51, June 20, 2019 (UTC)


 * Chances increased to near 0/30.  Sandy 156   :)  18:18, June 20, 2019 (UTC)

EPac data before 1971 isn't very reliable as there could've been several short-lived, unnoticed storms back in the mid-1960's and beforehand, given the fishspinning nature of most Pacific hurricanes. So this would certainly have the latest start of any season since reliable record-keeping began in '71, with this not likely to become Alvin until sometime next week. Ryan1000 03:14, June 21, 2019 (UTC)

I'm shocked that nothing has formed here yet. Even the whole Pacific is dead with barely anything popping up in WPac. I wonder what's going on?! Maybe Modoki El Niño is to blame? Hopefully Alvin comes at last with this system. This early inactivity reminds me of 2016, which didn't see Agatha until the start of July (although unlike this season at least there was something before; the June TD and the January Pali). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, June 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now near 0/40 for this system. Hopefully, it becomes Alvin to end this sadness in the basin.  Sandy 156   :)  23:50, June 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Near 0/50 now, still not in the 2-day TWO yet.  Sandy 156   :)  05:26, June 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Finally on the 2-day TWO with 10/60.  Sandy 156   :)  17:42, June 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * 20/60 now. Beatissima (talk) 04:44, June 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * 30/70, it’s now getting likely that Alvin will form out of this unless it fails.  Sandy 156   :)  05:28, June 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * I mean, it's either going to fail or form out of this, so... YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:28, June 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * 40/70. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:29, June 23, 2019 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Finally invested, models have it go towards the west-northwest and some of those have it as a TS.  Sandy 156   :)  17:19, June 23, 2019 (UTC) Update: Now 50/70.
 * Up to 60/70.  Sandy 156   :)  03:41, June 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70/70. Beatissima (talk) 05:36, June 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
Finally numbered. Forecast to become Alvin but not get very strong, as it eventually moves into unfavorable conditions and dissipates. Ryan1000 21:11, June 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensity is 35/1006 right now, expected to be a TS in the next advisory or so.  Sandy 156   :)  04:43, June 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Has been listed as a TS on Tropical Tidbits. The NHC advisory due in the next 15 minutes or so will reveal if we have Alvin or not. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:44, June 26, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alvin
And we will.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:03, June 26, 2019 (UTC)


 * This makes for the 3rd latest date for the first named storm in the EPac proper, after 2016's Agatha and 1969's Ava, but since those two seasons had other depressions form beforehand (and Pali in the CPac in January '16), this is the latest date for the first TC of any intensity to form in the EPac or CPac. Alvin is currently expected to reach only 50 mph before weakening and dissipating. Ryan1000 16:40, June 26, 2019 (UTC)

Hmm...seems like little Alvin is trying to overdo his intensity forecast, he recently jumped up to 60/999 and might have a chance to pull a Beryl and briefly become a tiny hurricane in the EPac before fizzling out. Ryan1000 11:06, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 65/998. Alvin is outperforming expectations, but is forecast to weaken afterwards though. Low key hoping that it somehow becomes a C1. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:30, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Tropical Tibits has it as a hurricane with 65 knots. I didn’t expect that to be that strong due to the dry air that was going to weaken the storm, but I guess not.  Sandy 156   :)  01:47, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Alvin
Well that was unexpected. Alvin was upgraded to a hurricane recently, the intensity at 75/992 right now. That one is a forecast-definer for sure.  Sandy 156   :)  02:41, June 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not the first time an EPac storm overshot its intensity forecast (see: Aletta last year, among others). Guess Alvin is Beryl's EPac brother, though he'll probably go downhill from here. Ryan1000 04:14, June 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Good show Alvin! I suppose he's proven himself more than a chipmunk now (in everything but wind diameter).  Send Help Please (talk) 06:42, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alvin (2nd time)
He sliped back down to TS intensity, but he pulled off a neat trick out there while it lasted. Ryan1000 12:01, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Alvin
Back down to a TD now. Beatissima (talk) 08:51, June 29, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin
Now decayed into a remnant low.  Sandy 156   :)  15:36, June 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gone now, but what a way to start this season: fashionably late. Very delayed, but a spectacle nonetheless. See you in 2025, Alvin! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:29, July 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Another AOI right behind Alvin at 0/20. Beatissima (talk) 23:01, June 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0/30.  Sandy 156   :)  06:29, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Is the EPac conveyor belt starting up? ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:24, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/50 now. Beatissima (talk) 17:18, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/60 and now appears on the 2-day TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  01:41, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

30/70. I sure do hope the conveyor's started up, this basin proves to be a fun one to watch (with it being one of the least dangerous ones to boot). Send Help Please (talk) 06:46, June 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * 40/80, looks like Barbara is on her way. This might get stronger than Alvin as it moves out to sea. Ryan1000 12:30, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invested now at 60/90. Beatissima (talk) 23:56, June 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * 70/90 now. Beatissima (talk) 05:38, June 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * 90/90. Here she comes. Beatissima (talk) 18:41, June 29, 2019 (UTC)

The GFS model received an improvement earlier this year, to the GEFS model, whose latest runs on tidbits show a 982 mbar category 2 storm or so, but if Alvin could overshoot his TS intensity forecast and become a hurricane, it's possible Barbara-to-be could become a major for the first time since 1995, which took a track very similar to what this storm looks like it'll take, just 1 week earlier in the year. Ryan1000 04:00, June 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * 100/100 now. Come on, Barbara! Beatissima (talk) 06:56, June 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not just yet. NHC issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 0835z:
 * "Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing tropical-storm-force winds but the system currently lacks a closed surface circulation. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system continue to show signs of organization and conditions appear conducive for the formation of a tropical storm later today while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph."
 * However that also means we'll immediately get Barbara from this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:08, June 30, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barbara
As KN mentioned, this skipped TD status and is now the 2nd named storm of the season. Forecast to become a 105 mph hurricane, but if Alvin's overperformance was an indicator of anything, Barbara could be the first major of the season. Ryan1000 15:22, June 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 45/1003 from 40/1006 earlier, and now forecast to hit 110 mph. But, according to the latest discussion, there's a 40-50% chance of RI in the next 12-72 hours, and if Barbara manages to take advantage of the favorable conditions she's in now, a major is quite likely from this storm. After 3 days, SST's and shear will likely pick up, gradually wearing Barbara down. Ryan1000 01:10, July 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now up to 50/1000; NHC now forecasts it to be a major hurricane, peaking it at 120 mph.  Sandy 156   :)  04:07, July 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Latest forecast discussion puts Barbara near C4 status: NHC expects it to reach 120 mph (C3) in 72 hours, but given Alvin's astonishing overperformance, I won't be surprised if Barbara becomes a Cat 4. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:28, July 1, 2019 (UTC)

One thing about Barbara that makes it unusual among Pacific hurricanes is its unusually large windfield for a TS; tropical storm force winds, according to the latest public advisory, extend 140 miles out from the center of Barbara. If Barbara goes for size over intensity, it might peak as a 3, but at the same time it might be slower to weaken over unfavorable conditions than other, smaller Pacific hurricanes, so down the road, if Barbara is far enough north, it might be a threat to Hawaii, if their subtropical ridge doesn't turn her WSW later on. Ryan1000 12:50, July 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * 70/991, forecasted to be a hurricane in the next advisory. The NHC’s forecast now calls for a low-end C4 hurricane with winds of up to 130 mph (115 kn) before encountering cooler waters and then weakening.  Sandy 156   :)  17:28, July 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * ATCF already has the storm as a hurricane at 75 kn (85 mph)/983 mbar.  Sandy 156   :)  20:43, July 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Barbara
Immediately as I said that, the NHC upgrades it to a hurricane, with the same intensity as I mentioned above.  Sandy 156   :)  20:46, July 1, 2019 (UTC)

Wow, Barbara is taking off fast. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:53, July 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not only is it an 85 mph storm now, but Barbara also has TS force winds going 160 miles out from the center, a fairly large storm. The hurricane-force winds are only 25 miles out, though I expect that to expand more later on. If Barbara keeps going all out, she might even have an outside shot of becoming a cat 5. This thing is rocketing in intensity as we speak. Ryan1000 21:56, July 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * She's going off like an Independence Day firecracker. Beatissima (talk) 22:41, July 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Big jump to 100 mph, looks like Barbara will most likely become a major hurricane the next day.  Sandy 156   :)  02:47, July 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * 95 knots, 969 mb. Eye got a little ragged earlier due to a dry air intrusion, but continues to become clearer. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, July 2, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Barbara
Bada BOOM, Category 4 - 115 kts/948 mbar per update statement. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:17, July 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * I'd say "Boomin' Barbara" has a good shot at cat 5 at this point, provided it doesn't ERC and favorable conditions continue for the next 24-36 hours. Ryan1000 13:33, July 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Wow, I wasn't expecting Barbara to reach C4 this quickly. That's pretty impressive. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:02, July 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * What amazing moves by Barbara! She has some potential to become a C5 if good conditions persist and continues RIing.  Sandy 156   :)  16:23, July 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Bonus: if you look at Barbara via GOES-West or GOES-East full disk right now, you'll also see the solar eclipse. :) Beatissima (talk) 21:17, July 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * 140/945 as of latest advisory. The NHC has it peak at 150 mph for now.  Sandy 156   :)  22:08, July 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * I don't have my hopes too high for a Category 5 — Barbara's window for additional intensification will close soon — but it'd be great to see nonetheless. Fun tidbit: I've made it known on this wiki that Karen, which is on this year's Atlantic list, is my mother's name. Barbara happens to be the name of the mother of one of my very best friends. Needless to say, I'm happy to see a powerful fishspinner named Barbara :D --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:59, July 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory takes Barbara to 155/933, near C5 strength.  Sandy 156   :)  02:39, July 3, 2019 (UTC)

This absolutely looks like a cat 5 right now, I would actually be kinda surprised if Barbara doesn't briefly crack 160 mph given the latest sattelite appearance of the storm, if not operationally there's always reanalysis (like Michael). But now the forecast also rapidly weakens the large and powerful hurricane as it moves northwest, to the point where it's not even expected to reach Hawaii as a TC, and if it does, she'll either turn north just beforehand or have it's convection displaced northeast of the center and thus away from Hawaii, unlike with Lane of last year. Ryan1000 04:40, July 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * The next advisory is out and NHC maintains Barbara at 135 knots. Reasons they gave were that cloud tops warmed slightly and an eyewall replacement is beginning. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:52, July 3, 2019 (UTC)

Aww, latest update on Tidbits says she's down to 145/938. Looks like Barbara's chance at cat 5 is gone, but there's always reanalysis. Should begin dying down from here on out. Hawaii should be safe if Barbara's a subtropical depression late in the forecast period. Ryan1000 13:03, July 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 140/941, and will continue on the weakening phase  ~ Roy25     Happy 4th of July!!!  |  🎆     23:24, July 03, 2019 (UTC)


 * Barbara now 120/956. ph  tracking  10:58, July 4, 2019 (UTC)

115/960 now, and quickly losing its organized structure. It might bring some rain to Hawaii down the road, but it probably won't be much more than a depression by then. Ryan1000 17:51, July 4, 2019 (UTC)

prepare for dis fat a$$ xDDD Christianadamg (talk) 18:39, July 4, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Barbara (2nd time)
Now down to Category 2. Beatissima (talk) 22:46, July 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * @Christianadamg: Do not post pictures like that on the wiki, it's off-topic and inappropriate for the discussion here. I removed them, but this is your only warning. Don't do it again. Anyways, Barbara is still very large and is expected to be an ET depression passing south of Hawaii down the road, but it's still very big, and unless Barbara shrinks or its convection get sheared to the northeast, this could bring noticeable rain to Hawaii down the road. Ryan1000 05:46, July 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barbara (2nd time)
Barbara weakens further to a tropical storm, 70/991.  Sandy 156   :)  16:10, July 5, 2019 (UTC)


 * Looks like Barbara has lost a lot of her convection by now, and will probably fizzle sometime tomorrow or Sunday, with the remnant rains going towards Hawaii. Ryan1000 16:39, July 5, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barbara
Bye Barbara, it was nice tracking you. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:52, July 6, 2019 (UTC)

July
The month has begun, so if this AOI becomes Cosme it'll be a July storm. Ryan1000 15:10, July 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
ANOTHER one right behind 94E. 0/20 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:54, June 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/30 now. Beatissima (talk) 05:39, June 29, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like the EPac conveyor belt is back in full swing. We'll see how long it keeps up, this'll probably become Cosme. Ryan1000 02:03, June 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/40. Beatissima (talk) 06:57, June 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/50 now. Beatissima (talk) 18:17, June 30, 2019 (UTC)

0/60. Quite a contrast between 2 and 5-day odds of forming, and it's not even on the main TWO yet, but it likely will be soon. Ryan1000 01:11, July 1, 2019 (UTC)

0/70, that contrast grows even larger. Nickcoro (talk) 00:02, July 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Still not on the 2-day TWO or invested, but probably will be soon. It's not every day you see such a stark contrast between 2 and 5 day odds of developing for an AOI, although Willa's precursor last year got to 0/80 before it was finally put up on the TWO. Ryan1000 00:07, July 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * I think this is because the tropical wave responsible for this AOI is still at 90°W, i.e. over Central America. I've noticed NHC tends to put AOIs on the 2-day TWO only after they exit land (unless immediate development is expected). ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:28, July 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/80, not invested yet. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:42, July 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/80, still not invested yet  ~ Roy25     Happy 4th of July!!!  |  🎆     23:22, July 03, 2019 (UTC)


 * 30/80 now. Beatissima (talk) 02:44, July 4, 2019 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tidbits. 40/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:18, July 4, 2019 (UTC)

dat n1gg4 cosme finna have a fine thicc booty, i wanna see her make ahego faces when she reaches cat 5, she gonna blow deez n1gg4s away lol Christianadamg (talk) 18:42, July 4, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now 60/90, will likely be Cosme for the next few days imo.  Sandy 156   :)  02:04, July 5, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 80/80 as of latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  23:32, July 5, 2019 (UTC)


 * 100/100. According to Tropical Tidbits, winds are already at 45 knots. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:50, July 6, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cosme
And our third system is here! First advisory puts the winds at 45 knots and the pressure at 1001 mb. Cosme isn't expected to intensify though as sea surface temperatures are marginal and there's a lot of surrounding dry air even though easterly wind shear is decreasing. Maybe Cosme can pull something off? We'll see. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:55, July 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Sorry, but I don't think Cosme will do much more, it's very poorly organized and will probably die soon. It looks like Cosme is our yearly epic fail for this EPac season. Ryan1000 21:02, July 7, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Cosme
Down to 35mph now. Beatissima (talk) 02:59, July 8, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cosme
Gone now. What a fail. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:33, July 08, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Mexico
Yet another area of interest formed in the basin. Right now, it’s 0/20 and it only appears in the 5-day TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  23:32, July 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/10 now.  Send Help Please (talk) 09:34, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

And now 0/0. Looks like Cosme Dalila will have to wait. Ryan1000 11:26, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Back up to 20/20, and invested. Also, @Ryan1000, I assume that you mean Dalila? Not that I blame you for forgetting about Cosfail's existence. Send Help Please (talk) 23:57, July 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Woah, a big jump from 40/40 to 80/80. This will possibly be Dalila if it does form and intensify into a TS.  Sandy 156   :)  18:04, July 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
An advisory has been issued on newly formed Tropical Depression Four-E. It has winds of 35 mph and is currently at 1006mb. The forecast is a peak of a weak Tropical Storm. Nickcoro (talk) 20:38, July 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Better not steal the name Dalila. I really don’t like name stealers.  Sandy 156   :)  20:56, July 12, 2019 (UTC)

Convection is downright terrible with this TD, and it's fading. I doubt it'll strengthen. If it does...then Dalila would out-fail Cosme, and that's saying a lot. Also...good catch with my above statement, I meant to say Dalila. Ryan1000 03:20, July 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * I get a feeling this one will stay weak but last a surprisingly long time. Beatissima (talk) 02:08, July 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * I was very surprised at how quickly this spun up, but this is definitely not stealing a name. Convection is dying and this should be a remnant low within the next 12 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:59, July 14, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Four-E
Dead. Overall a fail, but at least it didn't steal a name. I will say that "Failila" would've rolled off the tongue pretty well if it did strengthen. Send Help Please (talk) 15:46, July 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Open Pacific
10/10, nothing too notable. Send Help Please (talk) 00:09, July 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0.  Sandy 156   :)  18:05, July 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  23:46, July 12, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
0/20. Beatissima (talk) 00:18, July 15, 2019 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Now at 0/40. Beatissima (talk) 23:48, July 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 0/50, this has the potential to form and become Dalila.  Sandy 156   :)  21:55, July 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Decreased to 0/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:56, July 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back to 0/50 again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:59, July 19, 2019 (UTC)

Increased to 10/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:51, July 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now increased to 20/70.  Sandy 156   :)  23:53, July 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * After the late start, this season has ramped up (similarly to 2016). However, the pace is still slower than that year, which saw a record-breaking July. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for its development. C'mon Dalila! At least 4-E didn't steal a name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:12, July 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 30/80, hope this becomes Dalila soon.  Sandy 156   :)  05:10, July 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * 70/90 now. Here comes Dalila. Beatissima (talk) 23:33, July 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * The GFS model has it as a 991 mbar minimal hurricane while the CMC model has it as a 997 mbar storm. This may become a strong tropical storm or maybe a hurricane in the long run.  Sandy 156   :)  23:39, July 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Either way, the fish had better get ready to spin. Beatissima (talk) 01:25, July 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now increased to 90/90. It may form during the next few hours or so.  Sandy 156   :)  05:24, July 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 90/90. C'mon, become Dalila already! Hoping it's a TD or TS by tomorrow morning. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:57, July 22, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E
And it finally became a TD. Will likely become Dalila, though it is expected to peak as a weak TS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:44, July 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * So this probably won't become much more than Cosme did...oh well. At least we had Barbara so far, and we still have a ways to go for the rest of the season. Ryan1000 16:55, July 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * We are now likely going to see Failila from this system after 4-E didn’t steal the name, unless it defines the forecast.  Sandy 156   :)  17:02, July 22, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dalila
Here it is folks, Tropical Storm Failila. 40 mph/1005 mb. Uuuuuuuuuggggggggggghhhhhhh . Send Help Please (talk) 10:28, July 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 40/1006. It's out-failing Cosme, which was at 50/1001. That's saying quite a bit... Ryan1000 20:50, July 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * What an epic failure. Why did it just have to steal a name off the list? -.- Geez, the EPac loves to produce these pathetic failures quite frequently. Last year had Gilma, 2017 had Ramon and a few others, 2015 had the infamous Failicia... Dalila (Failila) looks to join them in the Hall of Shame. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:26, July 23, 2019 (UTC)

thank u, next Bad guy 69 (talk) 12:11, July 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Dalila
Dying down...35/1007. Ryan1000 13:04, July 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * hahahaha the lil shit was pathetic innit Bad guy 69 (talk) 13:08, July 24, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dalila
Gone, and what a terrible excuse for a named storm this was. Honestly, a Hall of Shame doesn't sound like too bad of an idea; storms like these can be almost impressive in how utterly pathetic they are. Send Help Please (talk) 14:58, July 25, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of 97E
A new AOI appears several hundred miles west of 97E. At 10/30 rn.  Sandy 156   :)  23:51, July 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/40. Send Help Please  (talk) 23:50, July 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/30. The wait for Dalila goes on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:00, July 19, 2019 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Down further to 20/20 but has been invested, at least according to Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:50, July 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10.  Sandy 156   :)  23:52, July 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * This ain't going to develop into anything anymore. Goodbye to a busted invest. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:12, July 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0.  Sandy 156   :)  05:10, July 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Long gone.  Sandy 156   :)  05:26, July 21, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SSE of Hawaii
First CPAC disturbance. 10/10 atm. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     01:41, July 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Only a short window for development in the next few days. If this becomes anything more than a TD/weak TS, I will be extremely surprised. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:12, July 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0. I guess Akoni will come later... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:59, July 22, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
New disturbance appeared just south of Mexico. At 0/20 rn.  Sandy 156   :)  23:31, July 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/30.  Sandy 156   :)  00:22, July 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Correct me if I am wrong, but is this the one that is (as of this writing) present in the 2-day TWO? Because if that is the case, this thing is now at 10/40. The race for Erick may well be on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:41, July 24, 2019 (UTC)

Yes, this is the one currently present on the two-day outlook. At 20/50 now, and conditions are expected to be favorable down the road. The AOI behind it is at 0/50. Ryan1000 00:01, July 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * 50/70. This'll probably get Erick first at this rate. Ryan1000 00:49, July 27, 2019 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Now invested as 99E and up to 60/80.  Sandy 156   :)  03:42, July 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 70/90.  Sandy 156   :)  05:22, July 27, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
Now a TD, 35 mph/1005 mb. Could be a threat to Hawaii down the road. Send Help Please (talk) 15:06, July 27, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick
Special statement from NHC, 06E becomes Erick, 40/1006. Forecasted to be a minimal hurricane before nearing Hawaii.  Sandy 156   :)  21:19, July 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * Hawaii's subtropical ridge may turn Erick towards the WSW later on; also it's a tiny TS with winds only going out 20 miles from (mostly east of) the center. This means Erick might overshoot his intensity forecast but it also makes him more prone to subtle changes in the environment. Ninety-eight (talk) 21:48, July 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yay, Erick is here! His twin is coming soon. Beatissima (talk) 02:51, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

Forecast peak is already raised to 100 mph...major hurricane anyone? Ryan1000 09:58, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico II
Here comes another one, right behind the other one. 0/30. Beatissima (talk) 05:52, July 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, the EPac is really starting to fire up. We can see Erick or maybe even Flossie during the next week.  Sandy 156   :)  05:55, July 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I expect this system and the one above it to become Erick or Flossie. Conditions seem favorable enough for both to form. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:29, July 23, 2019 (UTC)

i knew flossie would be a fat one tbh Bad guy 69 (talk) 12:11, July 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * 0/40. This may organize faster or probably become stronger than the AOI in front of this as it's now at 0/40 while the other is at 0/30, and it'll probably move more northward. If this becomes Erick before the other one it might become a hurricane again, which became a hurricane for the first time in his previous incarnation in 2013. Ryan1000 13:04, July 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * twin c4s anyone? --Bad guy 69 (talk) 13:10, July 24, 2019 (UTC)

Now we're at code red for both this and the above AOI. 10/70 for this and 50/70 for the other. Ryan1000 00:49, July 27, 2019 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Now invested as 90E, we’re likely going to see Erick and Flossie from those two invests if those keep it up.  Sandy 156   :)  03:42, July 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 30/80.  Sandy 156   :)  05:22, July 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 50/90.  Sandy 156   :)  17:44, July 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90 now. Flossie is coming. Beatissima (talk) 02:50, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

This might become stronger than Erick if Erick takes up any unfavorable conditions in this storm's path. Hopefully Hawaii's ridge keeps it and Erick south of them in the long run. Ryan1000 09:56, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * 80/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:35, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

tropical depression 7 e
it formed haha Bad guy 69 (talk) 15:00, July 28, 2019 (UTC)