Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is coming up, and the betting pools are up. I'll make some predictions for this season later, but if any of you guys have pre-season predictions, feel free to post them below. Ryan1000 03:56, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * CPHC will be merging their site to the NHC's in May. This should make finding advisories for CPAC storms even easier. Won't change the pace of CPHC TCRs though. Here's some other changes for this season.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:40, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * ...and the CPHC site is gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:24, May 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * The 2019 Pacific hurricane season has now officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  00:00, May 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: In the Open Pacific
What on Earth? An invest suddenly popped up out of nowhere. 30/50 chance of formation and has good model support. We could be seeing history here. -  PORY GONAL  20:32, January 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Woah, wasn't expecting that. Looks like GFS takes it up to 50 mph/1000 mb, which means we can see a record for the earliest named storm in the East Pacific's history. Guess I'll cheer Alvin on, lol. I just hope that this isn't a sign for what's to come later in the season, though... T  G  2 0 1 9 21:12, January 3, 2019 (UTC)

What is this I don't even...well I'll be damned, I never thought I would ever see an AOI in the EPac proper with a good chance of forming in January, of all times of year. There has never been a storm to form this early in the EPac proper since reliable data began in 1949, and only Ekeka of 1992 and Pali 3 years ago (which was arguably a continuation of 2015's extreme activity) did so east of the dateline in the CPac. If this becomes Alvin, I'll be overjoyed. Far out to sea, fishspinner, and unique time of year, what's not to like? Also, slightly off-topic, but if you guys want to vote on the nominees for the Hurricane Hall of Fame for 2019, all basins are open. This might prompt some more activity on the forums for that, seeing as how the SHem storms and Pabuk aren't getting much attention. Ryan1000 02:54, January 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * I know right, I have never seen an AOI in the EPac proper in January before... I was really shocked to see this. a lot of records will be broken if this forms, holy sh!t. And if it becomes subtropical, it might be the first EPac proper subtropical storm ever recorded (I think?). I'm totally rooting for Alvin to come out of this. And about the HOF, I hope to vote this weekend. ~  Steve 🎉   2019  is here!  🎆  05:19, January 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * I've been checking the NHC webpage out of habit for a while now, didn't think i'd actually see something pop up. C'mon Alvin, I believe in you! Send Help Please  (talk) 12:53, January 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances have dropped for this, now 30/30. T  G  2 0 1 9 21:00, January 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dropped to 0/0. Looks like the long wait begins once again (assuming it doesn't make a comeback, which seems unlikely.  ~ Roy25     It's 2019!!!  |  🎉     02:48, January 06, 2019 (UTC)
 * I guess this is gone for good without becoming Alvin. The extremely long wait until May starts up again. 😕 It looks like it's at the southernmost part of a system currently striking my area. ~  Steve 🎉   2019  is here!  🎆  07:36, January 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Well, that was funny. Shame it didn’t become named. Leeboy100 Hello! 00:31, January 17, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
The first AOI in the EPac’s season boundaries, this large area of disturbed weather appears in the TWO some several hundred miles south of Mexico. It has a 10/20 chance of formation as of now. The GFS model shows it becoming a 1009 mbar storm before dying off.  Sandy 156   :)  00:26, May 16, 2019 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invested according to TropicalTidbits. Still 10/20. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:54, May 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Dr. Masters made a new blog post discussing 91E (so apparently the above AOI back in January was 90E, unless the NHC made a mistake skipping over invest numbers like they did with Beryl of last year). In any instance, SST's near Mexico are cooler than average as of May 14, which, if it persists later on, would could surpress stronger TC's near Mexico this season. However, SST's are warmer than usual near Hawaii, so the people there may need to watch out for a potential hurricane later this season, especially after the close call they got with Lane last year (which still caused heavy flooding even without making landfall). This AOI shouldn't become anything serious, but it could get the EPac going with another May storm, and the Atlantic may still have a chance to spin up a May storm over the next two weeks before the AHS begins on June 1. While it's not too likely, it would make for a record 5th consecutive early start for the Atlantic, which would be nice to see. Ryan1000 16:17, May 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/20 and off the 2-day TWO as of 11:00 am PDT.  Sandy 156   :)  23:14, May 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 0/30 as of the latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  23:23, May 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now 10/40 and back up into the 2-day TWO. This might have a chance of becoming Alvin or a sad tropical depression for the next few days.  Sandy 156   :)  17:47, May 18, 2019 (UTC)


 * Nevermind, it’s gradually dying off. It’s now 10/30 in the latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  07:10, May 19, 2019 (UTC)

Although it's only at 0/20 for now, it could become Alvin later in the week as it moves west-northwest away from the coast of southern Mexico. Ryan1000 19:28, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/30 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:58, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Beatissima (talk) 06:35, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

10/50, looks like this might become Alvin after all.... Ryan1000 11:45, May 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50 per latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  05:18, May 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * 30/50 as it approaches Nic. Some models have it cross into the Atlantic while others have it stay in the basin.  Sandy 156   :)  05:21, May 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Decreased to 20/40 as the invest hits in between Nicaragua and Honduras.  Sandy 156   :)  14:30, May 23, 2019 (UTC)

10/30. Dr. Masters said there's a possibility that this AOI (or another central amerigan gyre/CAG, for short) could move into the Atlantic in about a week and become TS Barry if 91E doesn't move offshore in his latest blog post. Michael, for perspective, also developed from a CAG last October, though the Atlantic probably won't get a storm as strong as him in June. In that post he also mentions that the Atlantic has a 30% chance of being either above or below-normal, with a 40% chance of average, though nothing can be ruled out in these early stages. We're currently in a weak El Nino but expected to transition into ENSO-neutral later this year. The EPac, however, is expected to have another busy season, with 15-22 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-8 majors, i.e. a 70% chance of being above-average this year. Also, with the previous post that he mentioned with SST's being warmer than usual near Hawaii (but cooler than average near Mexico), they may need to watch out later this year. Ryan1000 19:23, May 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now it’s 30/40.  Sandy 156   :)  18:03, May 24, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 10/30 and conditions are expected to be unfavorable for further development. For an AOI that's been spinning around for the past 10 days, one would've expected it to become something by now, but I guess not... Ryan1000 09:15, May 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back to 10/20, not going to form if unfavorable conditions persist.  Sandy 156   :)  17:44, May 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. Alvin might need to wait a little longer. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:27, May 27, 2019 (UTC)

And now down to 0/0. Looks like this won't become Alvin after all; also, as a side note, the NHC put down the CPac as an area for TCR's on their site, so we'll include them at the end of this year, since now they'll come out faster. Ryan1000 10:12, May 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * The disturbance is gone and off the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  17:34, May 29, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Another disturbance formed in the EPac just a few hundred miles south from Mexico. It’s at 10/20. The disturbance will go northeast where it might even hit Southeast Mexico or Guatemala.  Sandy 156   :)  18:06, May 28, 2019 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and up to 20/20.  Sandy 156   :)  01:01, May 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0. This disturbance will not form imo.  Sandy 156   :)  18:37, May 30, 2019 (UTC)

Nothing else is expected to come in the next 5 days...but the EPac is warming up a bit and will probably get a named storm or two around early-mid June. May is only suposed to get a named storm once every two years anyways. Ryan1000 04:08, May 31, 2019 (UTC)

June
Began a short while ago, but nothing is expected to form in the immediate future here. Ryan1000 01:58, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Mexico
This one just popped up. 0/20. Beatissima (talk) 00:24, June 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * We haven’t seen a single storm in this basin yet; this season has the latest EPac start since reliable records began in 1971. The Pacific Ocean seems to be quiet this year due to a Modoki El Niño that’s developing.  Sandy 156   :)  00:41, June 20, 2019 (UTC)

It seems that the EPac burned it's hype out after the record ACE this basin had from last year. It'll probably pick up a little bit later on. And yes, we've now got the latest start to any EPac season on record, whenever we get our first depression, if it even comes from this AOI. Ryan1000 03:43, June 20, 2019 (UTC)

Seems likely that something will come out of this system. It should be noted if this develops, it would mark the latest start for any Pacific hurricane season (including CPAC) since 1964. Doesn't seem likely it'll be strong at the moment, though. -  MASTERGARFIELD  13:51, June 20, 2019 (UTC)


 * Chances increased to near 0/30.  Sandy 156   :)  18:18, June 20, 2019 (UTC)

EPac data before 1971 isn't very reliable as there could've been several short-lived, unnoticed storms back in the mid-1960's and beforehand, given the fishspinning nature of most Pacific hurricanes. So this would certainly have the latest start of any season since reliable record-keeping began in '71, with this not likely to become Alvin until sometime next week. Ryan1000 03:14, June 21, 2019 (UTC)

I'm shocked that nothing has formed here yet. Even the whole Pacific is dead with barely anything popping up in WPac. I wonder what's going on?! Maybe Modoki El Niño is to blame? Hopefully Alvin comes at last with this system. This early inactivity reminds me of 2016, which didn't see Agatha until the start of July (although unlike this season at least there was something before; the June TD and the January Pali). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, June 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now near 0/40 for this system. Hopefully, it becomes Alvin to end this sadness in the basin.  Sandy 156   :)  23:50, June 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Near 0/50 now, still not in the 2-day TWO yet.  Sandy 156   :)  05:26, June 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Finally on the 2-day TWO with 10/60.  Sandy 156   :)  17:42, June 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * 20/60 now. Beatissima (talk) 04:44, June 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * 30/70, it’s now getting likely that Alvin will form out of this unless it fails.  Sandy 156   :)  05:28, June 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * I mean, it's either going to fail or form out of this, so... YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:28, June 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * 40/70. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:29, June 23, 2019 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Finally invested, models have it go towards the west-northwest and some of those have it as a TS.  Sandy 156   :)  17:19, June 23, 2019 (UTC) Update: Now 50/70.
 * Up to 60/70.  Sandy 156   :)  03:41, June 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70/70. Beatissima (talk) 05:36, June 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
Finally numbered. Forecast to become Alvin but not get very strong, as it eventually moves into unfavorable conditions and dissipates. Ryan1000 21:11, June 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensity is 35/1006 right now, expected to be a TS in the next advisory or so.  Sandy 156   :)  04:43, June 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Has been listed as a TS on Tropical Tidbits. The NHC advisory due in the next 15 minutes or so will reveal if we have Alvin or not. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:44, June 26, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alvin
And we will.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:03, June 26, 2019 (UTC)


 * This makes for the 3rd latest date for the first named storm in the EPac proper, after 2016's Agatha and 1969's Ava, but since those two seasons had other depressions form beforehand (and Pali in the CPac in January '16), this is the latest date for the first TC of any intensity to form in the EPac or CPac. Alvin is currently expected to reach only 50 mph before weakening and dissipating. Ryan1000 16:40, June 26, 2019 (UTC)

Hmm...seems like little Alvin is trying to overdo his intensity forecast, he recently jumped up to 60/999 and might have a chance to pull a Beryl and briefly become a tiny hurricane in the EPac before fizzling out. Ryan1000 11:06, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 65/998. Alvin is outperforming expectations, but is forecast to weaken afterwards though. Low key hoping that it somehow becomes a C1. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:30, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Tropical Tibits has it as a hurricane with 65 knots. I didn’t expect that to be that strong due to the dry air that was going to weaken the storm, but I guess not.  Sandy 156   :)  01:47, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Alvin
Well that was unexpected. Alvin was upgraded to a hurricane recently, the intensity at 75/992 right now. That one is a forecast-definer for sure.  Sandy 156   :)  02:41, June 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not the first time an EPac storm overshot its intensity forecast (see: Aletta last year, among others). Guess Alvin is Beryl's EPac brother, though he'll probably go downhill from here. Ryan1000 04:14, June 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Good show Alvin! I suppose he's proven himself more than a chipmunk now (in everything but wind diameter).  Send Help Please (talk) 06:42, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alvin (2nd time)
He sliped back down to TS intensity, but he pulled off a neat trick out there while it lasted. Ryan1000 12:01, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Alvin
Back down to a TD now. Beatissima (talk) 08:51, June 29, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin
Now decayed into a remnant low.  Sandy 156   :)  15:36, June 29, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Another AOI right behind Alvin at 0/20. Beatissima (talk) 23:01, June 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0/30.  Sandy 156   :)  06:29, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Is the EPac conveyor belt starting up? ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:24, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/50 now. Beatissima (talk) 17:18, June 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/60 and now appears on the 2-day TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  01:41, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

30/70. I sure do hope the conveyor's started up, this basin proves to be a fun one to watch (with it being one of the least dangerous ones to boot). Send Help Please (talk) 06:46, June 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * 40/80, looks like Barbara is on her way. This might get stronger than Alvin as it moves out to sea. Ryan1000 12:30, June 28, 2019 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invested now at 60/90. Beatissima (talk) 23:56, June 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * 70/90 now. Beatissima (talk) 05:38, June 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * 90/90. Here she comes. Beatissima (talk) 18:41, June 29, 2019 (UTC)

The GFS model received an improvement earlier this year, to the GEFS model, whose latest runs on tidbits show a 982 mbar category 2 storm or so, but if Alvin could overshoot his TS intensity forecast and become a hurricane, it's possible Barbara-to-be could become a major for the first time since 1995, which took a track very similar to what this storm looks like it'll take, just 1 week earlier in the year. Ryan1000 04:00, June 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * 100/100 now. Come on, Barbara! Beatissima (talk) 06:56, June 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not just yet. NHC issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook at 0835z:
 * "Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing tropical-storm-force winds but the system currently lacks a closed surface circulation. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system continue to show signs of organization and conditions appear conducive for the formation of a tropical storm later today while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph."
 * However that also means we'll immediately get Barbara from this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:08, June 30, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barbara
As KN mentioned, this skipped TD status and is now the 2nd named storm of the season. Forecast to become a 105 mph hurricane, but if Alvin's overperformance was an indicator of anything, Barbara could be the first major of the season. Ryan1000 15:22, June 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 45/1003 from 40/1006 earlier, and now forecast to hit 110 mph. But, according to the latest discussion, there's a 40-50% chance of RI in the next 12-72 hours, and if Barbara manages to take advantage of the favorable conditions she's in now, a major is quite likely from this storm. After 3 days, SST's and shear will likely pick up, gradually wearing Barbara down. Ryan1000 01:10, July 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
ANOTHER one right behind 94E. 0/20 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:54, June 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/30 now. Beatissima (talk) 05:39, June 29, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like the EPac conveyor belt is back in full swing. We'll see how long it keeps up, this'll probably become Cosme. Ryan1000 02:03, June 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/40. Beatissima (talk) 06:57, June 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/50 now. Beatissima (talk) 18:17, June 30, 2019 (UTC)

0/60. Quite a contrast between 2 and 5-day odds of forming, and it's not even on the main TWO yet, but it likely will be soon. Ryan1000 01:11, July 1, 2019 (UTC)