Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: West Carribean
There's a storm like this every year, disorganized convection in June in this exact spot organizes enough to be named but is heavily sheared and forced up the east coast. Nothing yet, but worth watching. Shear seems pretty light at the moment.-Winter123 18:49, 10 June 2008 (UTC)


 * It's actually looking pretty nice on satellite at the moment. I say it's a TD as we speak based solely on the deep convection and overall satellite presentation.


 * http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn.jpg
 * That image is from Oct 7, 2007. weird. Weatherlover819 23:14, 11 June 2008 (UTC)

91L INVEST (Off the NE coast of South America)
[http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/91L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20080611.1815.goes12.x.vis1km_high.91LINVEST.25kts-1012mb-90N-570W.100pc.jpg. Very small and very far south.] Isn't this a really odd place for the beginning of June? I have been watching this thing for the past few days but didn't think it was worth mentioning since its climatalogically unfavorable. Its about to move over land, and get sheared. I'd say .01% chance unless it can make it to west carrib. -Winter123 19:31, 11 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Why haven't they classified it TD? Wind readings are over 30 knot.24.215.70.104 00:31, 12 June 2008 (UTC)


 * It's a 20mph midlevel swirl right now and will probably have to tango with south america. But it looks favorable and development by Friday wouldn't surprise me. But I won't have access to a computer for the next 10 days so, have fun tracking! :D I'll check the plymoth state weather center archives when i get back to see what happened. -Winter123 04:52, 12 June 2008 (UTC)

AOI: Cape Verde Season starting early?
Wow it's already almost July and there hasn't been one invest. But we have activity in the E atlantic. -There is a wave coming off africa (15W) with a good rotation and storms firing only over water. Sadly not on NHC discussion yet. -Then the next wave west (35W) has a nice low level rotation as can bee seen on satellite loop. I'm surprised it is not an invest yet. NHC Discussion: "A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W." -Winter123 17:05, 28 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Ok those died but the one about to come off looks amazing and is at a low latitude. -Winter123 03:53, 29 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Just so you know, ALL the models (GFS, UKMET, CMC, ECMWF, NOGAPS) are forecasting this to develop into a depression/storm. GFS is the most aggressive, taking it all the way across the Atlantic to Florida. The other models all dissipate it in the Central Atlantic though. It's interesting to note that even Arthur didn't have this much model support. Anyway, the wave itself has a surface circulation that is over West Africa at the moment, shear is decreasing in the Cape Verde region, and the parade of waves has significantly decreased the amount of dust and increased the amount of moisture. SST's are still 1-2 degrees above normal in the area, as well. With all the model support and the conductive environment, I think I'd be more surprised NOT to see something form. undefinedundefined 20:33, 30 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Ok thank you i'm not the only one seeing this. Can anyone look at this (gif loop, expires in like 2 days) and say it DOESNT look like a tropical depression even though it barely emerged? This should be a TD by this afternoon if it stays like this. -Winter123 06:25, 1 July 2008 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
It's been invest'd, and NHC is also talking about it: A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA... ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. --Patteroast 11:46, 1 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Is this the first time a system has formed this far east this early? I mean come on this looks like a TD to me.-Winter123 16:19, 1 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Seems to be organizing well, with visible rotation. Wouldn't be surprised if this system, if it does, develops fast. - Enzo Aquarius 03:51, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * COME ON NHC JUST MAKE IT TD2 ALREADY. (or possibly 1 since Arthur was never declared a TD?) It looks perfect. -Winter123 04:55, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look like it has an LLCC yet. The thunderstorm activity appears pretty disorganized. This one's not there yet. NHC doesn't even have a floater on it. -- SkyFury 19:00, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Woot! Finally, after days of model agreement, an invest! The models are agreeing where this will go, but I don't know about the long term. I'm predicting cat. 2 hurricane Bertha, then a TS landfall on Nova Scotia. Season's finally getting busy! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:57, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I rarely watch the weather channel but i caught it this morning and they brought up something. The weather caster was so surprised by it she practically screamed "THAT IS SO IRONIC!".
 * "On July 1, a tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Africa. On July 3, a weak low-level circulation developed while located 500 miles south of Cape Verde. The depression moved westward, and on July 5, it strengthened into a tropical depression in the central Atlantic." - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha
 * Sound familiar? If this current storm does form (and it looks very very likely) it will form in the same place, same date, and likely take a similar track because as someone said on another board theres 2 big highs over the Atlantic and this is far south.
 * But the REALLY ironic part is, this current storm will be named... BERTHA! -Winter123 04:34, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
It's officially been given Tropical Depression status. Advisory 1. The 5 day track has it strengthening to Tropical Storm by the end of today. - Salak 12:04, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Also, the model guidance now have it at 35 knots and 1006 millibars, and are also calling it Bertha. So, expect it to be official at 11:00. Anyway, Bertha is the most easterly July storm EVER, surpassing Bertha of '96, oddly. undefinedundefined 14:06, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, that IS ironic! It's similar to the 1996 Bertha, but also somewhat different. We don't know if or where it will make landfall, and if or when it will strengthen into a hurricane. This storm could persist well beyond a week and we don't know what it's going to do. Well, once again, let's see what happens! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:38, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bertha
Already! Not surprising, really. Well, let's see what it does! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:21, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's Probability tables give it more chance of being a Category 2 within 5 days than of dissipating :) Bertha could be with us for a while. - Salak 15:29, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks great but looks like a fish. Unless it hits a massive high at the end of that track it has no chance of even approaching bermuda. -Winter123 17:07, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * If it encounters little shear and can keep up its strength, Bertha could last for a bit. Long-term outlook has Bertha staying on course then curving up a bit, towards North Carolina and the Virginias. All depends on what the storm encounters over the next few days. - Enzo Aquarius 19:22, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Is it just me, or does that nrl site show Bertha's original low coming off the coast of Guinea? The models, about a week ago, predicted a weak low coming off the coast of Africa. Anyway, there should be a high (the Bermuda High!) nudging its course west, but might not be enough, and Bertha could even weaken the high and curve towards Atlantic Canada, could last quite a long time. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 02:20, 4 July 2008 (UTC)

The forecast track seems a bit further south now... - Salak 15:17, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * OMG, the track has shifted way south, the chances of impacting Bermuda have become way higher, the chances for dissapation have become way smaller, the model agreement is way worse, and the chances of becoming a hurricane in all categories have become way higher. Also, Wikipedia is mentioning how the models have predicted this way in advance. I might be exagerrating, but suddenly this storm seems to be developing into more than a fish... 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:39, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Woah. Upon checking the models, GFDL brings it up to a cat. 3 within 120 hours! CMC seems to show a cat. 1. GFDL also brings it dangerously close to Bermuda, as does HWRF but as a TS. Also, some models hint at the formation of a second storm, possibly entering the Caribbean, including GFS, which praticly dissapates Bertha. If Bermuda does get hit, it will probably be the weaker west side, but then it might hit Atlantic Canada, just as I previously predicted. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:05, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Well, well, well, the Cape Verde season's started early this year...just like the 1996 Bertha that hit North Carolina as a Category 2. This one more reminds me of 2006's Florence in location, intensity and forecast track. Bermuda look out, I see a deja-vu in your future. Bertha may not end up being as strong though, but storms like Bertha rarely fall short of 75 mph. -- SkyFury 18:28, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Track continues to shift west. Maybe North Carolina DOES need to watch this! Seems like its in a rough patch right now but once the high catches it it should move more west and intensify steadily into a hurricane. -Winter123 19:05, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Still more to the west with the 5pm EDT advisory... A Carribean strike might not be out of the question if the forecast path keeps moving like this... - Salak 21:20, 4 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks on satellite that it's turned due west. So even the current track may be too far north. But time will tell. I think Northern islands, PR, Haiti, Cuba, Florida to Boston should all be keeping an eye on this. -Winter123 03:23, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow. Just wow. It's now shifted far enough south that a landfall on the Maryland area seems most likely, but everywhere from South Carolina to Massechusetts is in the dangr zone as well. The models seem to show a paradoxial connection between its intensity and forecast track: if it strengthens into a hurricane early, it will veer north and cut right into the Bermuda high, hit cold water, and weaken as a fish. If it maintains its TS status for a long time, however, the Bermuda high will be strong enough to keep its course south, and it will head west into very warm water, explode, and hit land. Looks like North Carolina does indeed need to watch this very closely! I think it will keep as a TS for the next 120 hours, and after then it should strengthen into a hurricane. There is still a great deal of uncertainty, and 25 million people remain at risk from feeling Bertha's hurricane-force winds. Even here in southern Ontario, I might need to watch this one. If it does hit the Carolina area, however, there it will hit some very warm water, warmer perhaps than any water it has encountered so far. If it hits anywhere up the coast north of New Jersey, it will abruptly weaken or turn extratropical. North Carolina may be up for some deja vu indeed... 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:33, 5 July 2008 (UTC)

Is that a H symbol that I see on the track map issued with the 11am advisory? :) Anyway, it's been revised still further to the south. Now pointing towards Bahamas, Florida, Georgia or South Carolina. Forecast Category 1 hurricane in 72 hours, uncertainty about shear after that point, hence the NHC have kept estimates below that of some models which suggest further intensification. - Salak 15:05, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I just thought I would point out that Bertha's ACE as of right now is greater than more then HALF of last years storms - and it's only a weak TS! I get the feeling that this year wont be as ACE-deficient as the last. undefinedundefined 15:34, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't like this. I don't like this one bit. Cape Verde storms always scare the hell outta me, but this one in particular. Bertha's looking at Myrtle Beach right now like a lion looks at a steak. Everyone in the Carolinas needs to be paying attention to this thing. It's looking more and more like the '96 Bertha. -- SkyFury 18:53, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Ouch, I concur. Even though it's not on the same track, if Bertha reaches land, and, instead goes northwards, it could copy Hurricane Hazel from 1954 which was, as one could say, not pretty. NOAA predicts Bertha will reach hurricane status by Tuesday, so these next few days could determine Bertha's fate indeed. - Enzo Aquarius 01:17, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh, anyone looked at WeatherUnderground's historical model? The ONLY storm in that map is 1996's Bertha! What a frickin' coincidence! The storm might have formed earlier and its track farther north than Bertha of '96, but it certainly could hit North Carolina! However, a lot of models are shifting it farther east and towards Bermuda. Wait, did you say Hazel?! Oh NO!!! Please, no, anything but Hazel!! I mean, I would be okay with another Isabel, but please not Hazel! The good news, however, is that if it strengthens early, it will curve north and dissapate (and then hit England). As we all learned from 2006's Ernesto, you can't really predict a storm's course accurately for more than three days. Or who knows, maybe our scared state will weaken the storm, as with Karen, Ingrid, or Melissa. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 02:04, 6 July 2008 (UTC)

Significant weakening is occuring this evening it looks to me. There's a patch of cool water it's moving over. As if the track hasn't shifted south enough, the thing just continues to move due west and since it's weakening, will continue to do so. Puerto Rico and the islands need to watch out, and Florida all the way up to Boston. When it hits the warmer water North of Puerto Rico this could get real strong real quick. -Winter123 02:20, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * The water's only getting warmer from here... and each time I look at the latest forecast, they inch up the winds by the time the shear they're expecting strikes... if the shear doesn't show up as much as they expect, we could have our first major hurricane of the season on our hands. GFDL's showing a strengthening Cat. 3 with Bermuda in its sights (Fabian, anyone?) --Patteroast 10:15, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NOAA still predicts hurricane status for Tuesday with continuing status as a hurricane thereafter. I have a good feeling Bertha will be our first hurricane of the season. I'm also not liking this huge curve towards North Carolina and the Virginias that it being predicted (though NC needs rain?)... - Enzo Aquarius 18:04, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Whether or not it hits land is probably dependant on how fast the ridge over the Western Atlantic weakens. If it weakens slower, we could have a problem. If it weakens quicker, Bertha may turn out to sea. An upper level trough holds Bertha's fate in it's hands. If it holds, it will induce shear over the system and weaken it. If the trough weakens, then we may be looking at a major hurricane by the end of the week. -- SkyFury 19:04, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Models are predicting a more substantial curve in a few days now (almost all of them are in agreement). NHC also appears to be predicting hurricane status in around 36 hours. If the storm survives the next two days and follows the current models, it may avoid NC and the Virginias and head towards the northeastern States and Atlantic Canada. Bermuda may also be facing some mighty fierce weather as well if Bertha follows what NHC is predicting. - Enzo Aquarius 00:02, 7 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC has updated their prediction to hurricane status by 8 PM tomorrow. Track has also been shifted even further north to almost be spot on with Bermuda. They may be getting hit hard in a few days time. It's looking more and more like the east coast will be spared, but greater chances for Atlantic Canada to be hit. - Enzo Aquarius 04:23, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Bertha
Latest from NHC puts Bertha as a hurricane as of advisory 17, although still reiterating that they have no idea if it'll make landfall or not. Going to be interesting either way. --Patteroast 08:57, 7 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Though if the 5 day track is accurate... um, I hope Bermuda have an eye on this. - Salak 09:19, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

From the 5am NHC forecast discussion: "WHILE A HURRICANE DOES NOT FORM EVERY YEAR IN JULY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...IT HAS CERTAINLY HAPPENED BEFORE...INCLUDING IN 1996 WHEN ANOTHER HURRICANE BERTHA FORMED...COINCIDENTALLY ALSO ON JULY 7."

Deja vu - Isfisk 09:46, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Advisory 18: "SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT." - Salak 15:18, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Bermuda better be getting ready for Bertha soon, NHC predicts Bertha will go right by it (if not right over the island). If the models are correct, landfall in the eastern States is unlikely, but Atlantic Canada may be hit, unless it keeps curving. - Enzo Aquarius 16:20, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * NHC says it may miss Bermuda entirely. This could be fun to watch now that we don't have much to worry about in the way of damaging landfalls. -- SkyFury 17:41, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

Now Cat 3. This was unexpected. 90.184.124.108 21:41, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Bertha
Boom, major hurricane. Wow, that was fast. NHC is continually underestimating this thing. Look for a little more strengthening in the next 24 hours. I can't quite see a Cat 4 at this point, but possibly stronger than now. Bermuda, you paying attention yet? -- SkyFury 22:31, 7 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It's interesting to note that Bertha has a lower pressure than Hurricane Flossie from last year, which was 949 millibars and 140 MPH. While 948 does sound reasonable for a strong Cat 3, 115 MPH does sound a bit low. Either NHC is underestimating Bertha's winds, or overestimating its pressure. Hmm. 142.177.233.198 22:49, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * What happened to Category 2!? Yeep! - Salak 22:49, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * 142, it depends on the pressure gradient. That gradient is much lower in the monsoon troughs of the Western Pacific, one of the reasons most of the strongest storms in history formed there. This applies to the Atlantic too, Wilma was in a deeper pressure gradient when it broke the Atlantic intensity record. Hurricane Isidore in 2002 had a 934mb pressure with only 125 mph winds. -- SkyFury 23:25, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

I come home expecting a Category 2...but find Bertha as Category 3?! This thing is a beast! I sure hope Bermuda is starting to take notice and preparing. I see Bertha reaching Category 4, so she could hit the island hard. :S - Enzo Aquarius 03:16, 8 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Can I just say on behalf of the people of Bermuda, that we are watching this one, and we will be ready. We didn't do too badly when Fabian hit in 2003 due to the quality of Bermuda's building codes (our homes are built from stone and concrete - including the roof!) [Bermuda resident]


 * If she hits the island at all *looks at latest track, where Bermuda is barely within 5 day cone* - Salak 10:52, 8 July 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Bertha (2nd time)
Dropped to Category 2. - Salak 15:19, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * OH MY GOD SHE'S BLEEDING ALL OVER!!!!! Best of luck on her recovery tomorrow! -Dr. Tropics 16:26, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Starting to look like she'll avoid land altogether, even Bermuda. - Enzo Aquarius 16:36, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Any chance it could just get ripped to a low level swirl and miss the connection and stall? She's looking like a weak tropical storm right now. -Winter123 16:38, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * We're good, Bermuda, you can relax now. Bet the surf over there is gonna be friggin awesome though. Could restrengthen at the end of the forecast period. -- SkyFury 18:22, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Don't be so sure, I see a definitely WNW movement! Or is it my imagination? -Winter123 19:25, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Dropped to Cat 1 now i can not see this hitting bermuda though i can see Berthas rements either affecting Atlantic Canada or the UK late next weekJason Rees 21:57, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I personally think Bertha's done. She'll just weaken and hit the UK as a low. - Enzo Aquarius 01:59, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Either my eyes are going bad or this is moving due west. Come on no one else sees this? -Winter123 03:38, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Might want to get those eyes checked, 'cause all I see is a weakening hurricane preparing for recurvature. From the loop, it appears the storm is going to recurve within the next day or so. Bermuda, like I said, is safe. Though, I have a feeling Bermudan surfers are going to have a field day with this one. Surf's up, man! -- SkyFury 05:58, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * 5 Day cone is swinging West again... - Salak 13:07, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC: BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING AND THE EYE APPEARS TO BE REFORMING. Not dead yet. Isfisk 16:59, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * "The report of Bertha's death was an exaggeration" Isfisk 17:02, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC said it could restrengthen, so I never considered Bertha dead. I still don't think Bermuda has much to worry about with this one. As a precautionary thing, yeah, they should pay attention but I don't think Bertha will pose a threat to the island. -- SkyFury 17:07, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I really don't think it has a chance to MISS bermuda. If you look at the low level wind direction to the north of it, there is a small high pressure stretching from east of where it is, directly west to bermuda. This should direct it WNW into bermuda. They really need to prepare now. Can't trust NHC like gods. In fact I'd trust my dog at predicting where storms will move better most of the time. -Winter123 18:05, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * GASP!! Don't say that! ALL models forcast re-strengthening, and only 1/7 (GFS) don't predict cat. 2 or more! GFDL brings it to a cat.3, CMC to a cat. 4!!! CMC brings it to a cat. 4 just 300 km from Bermuda, GFDL brings it to the same distance but as a Cat. 2, giving Bermuda 60 kph winds, HWRF gives Bermuda 40 kph winds, NGP and UKMET both bring it 200 km from Bermuda, NGP at cat. 1, UKMET at cat. 2. Also, NGP predicts more strengthening after passing Bermuda, and all models predict it to affect Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Also, 1/3 of all models predict a TD formation near the Carribbean. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:02, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, Bertha got well in a hurry. Check out the vis right now, it's a gorgeous storm. The model guidance takes the storm well east of Bermuda. Winter, since when were you trained or qualified to read weather patterns like that? Looks to me like there's a high pressure associated with a shortwave trough pushing eastward, which is (whataya know) what NHC says. What NHC is concerned about is that the trough will miss the storm and leave it adrift. If steering currents are low, then track forecasting becomes really difficult and the storm wouldn't have to drift too far from the forecast track to present big problems to Bermuda. Winter, I don't trust NHC like gods, I trust them like people who know this shit a lot better than any of us. Most of the senior forecasters there have been studying and tracking storms since your parents were in high school, if not earlier (I don't know how old you are). So I'd bite my tongue if I were you. Forecasting weather is like trying to read God's mind; it's not easy. -- SkyFury 20:54, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Who dumped the caffeine and alcohol in the Atlantic, Bertha doesn't seem to know what to do. :P I think Bermuda's going to be spared now (apart from maybe some rain and wind, it's still near the predicition cone), but, according to some models, Atlantic Canada may be Bertha's main target. - Enzo Aquarius 21:31, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm afraid the DUI laws don't apply to hurricanes ;). I'm not sure I see what you're talking about. The intensity changes have been a little wacky. It appears to be strengthening a bit right now. -- SkyFury 03:04, 10 July 2008 (UTC)

Wow, this is an insane storm. Very interesting to track this early in the season, and Bermuda isn't out of the woods yet according to the NHC. I'd trust them over any of us any day. Bob rulz 06:57, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Holy, look at CMC, mm5fsu 33 a and b. CMC predicts what looks like a cat. 5 (!), then weakening to a cat. 4 and grazing bermuda with hurricane-force winds, while both mm5fsu33 models appear to take it directly over Bermuda as a cat. 4, although they're a bit more outdated than CMC. By the way, is CMC a Canadian model? Bermuda is still in the 3-day error cone, and NHC doesn't rely on any of those three models, and it's only 1/3 of all models predicting such a scary turn. NHC seems unsure on Bertha's even approximate track beyond 3 days, and many of the models seem confused beyond that time period, some stalling Bertha, some weakening her, some strengthening her, some turning her out to sea and others turning her west. If the mm5fsu models are even close to being right, which I hope they aren't, then Bermuda needs to watch this very closely. I mean, it's only July, and this already? Anyway, most models are seriously underestimating Bertha's current  intensity, but then explode it afterwards. The good news it, NHC's current track takes it a safe distance from Bermuda, but the error cone is so wide that anywhere from Bermuda to Atlantic Canada to Europe needs to watch this storm closely. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:31, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
 * As I've been saying for days I think bermuda is still in the crosshairs. Even if it turns north like NHC still insists upon, as I've been saying I feel it's going to stall. This is due to the trough dipping down to its east, which means to the north the higher pressure is strenthening and will make it difficult for it to move to the north out to sea! -Winter123 16:58, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
 * But that doesn't mean Bermuda's gonna get its ass kicked by a CMC-ian storm. CMC is off its rocker, always has been intensity wise. Bertha's been a very unruly storm. It strengthened when it was forecast to weaken and weakened just as the conditions started to get better. It's under perfect conditions right now but not one of the models forecast it to strengthen which doesn't make any sense. NHC doesn't know what this slow down is going to do to the track and when land impacts are involved, they don't want to take any chances. Bermuda could still get brisked by this system but if it's any worse than (or even as bad as) 2006's Hurricane Florence, I'll be very surprised. -- SkyFury 00:55, 11 July 2008 (UTC)

"IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA WILL WEAKEN SOME UPON THE FINAL DEMISE OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRACT AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRENGTHENING..." An eyewall replacement cycle? But it's a Category 1, since when did Cat 1s have replacement cycles? -- SkyFury 03:13, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks like Bertha may skim Bermuda. They may be getting a 'little' rain in a couple of days. - Enzo Aquarius 03:47, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * In response to Skyfury- Today. 59.10.63.81 05:47, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks at latest forecast track* The NHC seem determined that Bertha's going to curve away... - Salak 12:54, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC says that a TS watch may be issued for Bermuda today. However, GFS has now joined with CMC, predicting a cat. 4. This makes half of all models that predict strengthening to a major hurricane within 120 hours. The models insist that if it misses that trough and the ridge weakens a little, Bertha's gonna stall and strengthen like mad. It's also expected to hit Newfoundland, with St. Pierre and Miqueldon getting TS winds according to GFDL. So, Atlantic Canada, especially Newfoundland, needs to watch this one too, as it and that French dependency may get hit with winds worse than Bermuda. Oh no, it looks like a repeat of 2007's Chantal, and Newfoundlanders in Placentia Bay are tired of the government not doing enough to clean up after Chantal, and it looks like Bertha may hit that same area again in less than a year! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:03, 11 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Tropical Storm watches have been issued for bermuda for bertha and only now is an air force plane going out Jason Rees 16:48, 11 July 2008 (UTC)

I've been saying for almost a week now it could stall, and it appears to be doing so! This is NOT a fish storm. even if you look at the models, half of them turn this to the south as soon is it passes bermuda! Come on, bermuda is not in the clear. Heck, the US isn't even in the clear. Remember Kyle? It came from hundreds of miles east of bermuda, and ended up scraping the carolinas and causing 5 million dollars in tornado damage! -Winter123 18:35, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Then again, Kyle's track basically throughout it's whole life was erratic (definite Alcohol in water :P). NHC predicts tropical storm status within a few days, so Bertha's remaining storm life may be determined within the next few days as it keeps tracking northward. - Enzo Aquarius 03:50, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * But you're assuming it will CONTINUE to track northward. As it is, its moving less than 5 miles per hour and is forecast to very likely miss this shortwave trough and stall in this general area for 5 days! And the high behind the trough might strengthen so this drifts west. It could be very interesting. Just imagine if this had stalled OVERTOP of Bermuda. That'd be bad. And what's with this structure anyway? It's like it's had 2 eyes for the past 24 hours... a hurricane within a hurricane.... -Winter123 04:02, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * "LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS." *grabs surfboard* KALABUNGA!!!! Last one in's walkin' home!! WHOOOOHOO!!! *dives into the surf laughing and shouting and generally not taking the situation very seriously* -- SkyFury 04:27, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC seems to be entering 'I dunno' mode, the prediction cones are pretty close and large, but it looks like Bermuda's going to be stuck with tropical storm-like conditions off-shore for a few days. As Sky said, a surfer's paradise. :P - Enzo Aquarius 16:17, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Believe it or not, I've never so much as touched a surfboard. Bertha's weakened a bit and now NHC is predicting a sharp turn out to sea. -- SkyFury 18:34, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * VERY sharp turn indeed. If it returns to very warm seas, Bertha could strengthen up again... - Enzo Aquarius 03:49, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Now they say it may even turn back south! I've just stopped expecting anything from this storm now. I don't even expect the unexpected. Storms are like people; their lives have only two certainties: birth and death. Between those two, a storm is limited only by the laws of natural physics. -- SkyFury 07:30, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bertha (second time)
It's been dropped to a TS. TS warning still in effect for Bermuda, NHC no longer predicting it to restrengthen, expected to head out to sea. Unless it interacts with the frontal system and that AoI near South Carolina, I don't think it's going to do much more except maybe affect Newfoundland and Europe. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:44, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Um, have you even looked at the official track since NHC /FINALLY/ realized it was stalling? It's predicted to quickly turn east and potentially south. That's hardly "out to sea" and Canada is under no threat. -Winter123 17:26, 13 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Well, anywhere generally eastward qualifies as "out to sea" it just doesn't mean that it will stay "out to sea," though I think it will; the waters aren't warm enough to sustain it. -- SkyFury 18:04, 13 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Although the official forecast calls for it to stay as a TS, 7/9 models predict strengthening back to hurricane status. Many models are also turning it south, just as you said. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:20, 13 July 2008 (UTC)


 * As the hours pass, a Bermuda direct hit looks more and more likely. Moving directly NW and convection is building back over it again. pic. -Winter123 22:18, 13 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Hitting an island maybe ten miles long in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean square in the nose is pretty difficult and I actually can't recall ever hearing of a storm passing directly over the island (I'm just musing now) but I take your point. The official track has been edging closer and closer but Bertha doesn't have much punch right now. 55 knots and falling is pretty much a rain event. Though I'm sure Bermuda vacationers are not happy campers right now. Bertha's enjoying the scenery and doesn't seem to be in much of a hurry to leave. -- SkyFury 03:52, 14 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Well, it's not expected to make landfall or anything, but Bermuda is already getting TS winds. NHC has improved the chances for restrengthening to hurricane, and predicts it to turn south. Guess why it's supposed to turn south? A fujiwara interaction with a weakness in the Bermuda high! CMC explodes the weakness in the high, pushing it toward the UK and Greenland and giving Bertha a full fujiwara. This storm might be weakening, but it's not over yet. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:40, 14 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Geez, the future track predictions are going nuts with Bertha now. There's not really any full consensus on where Bertha's going in the next 5 days from the models, though NHC predicts a quick U-turn followed by another turn northeastward. - Enzo Aquarius 17:05, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Also, she's over Bermuda right now. Looking at weather cameras, they're getting a ton of rain: http://www.theweathernetwork.com/index.php?product=weather_cams&pagecontent=weather_cams&camregion=intl&camera=CMBMXX0001 - Enzo Aquarius 17:11, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Agreed on both counts. What used to be the western eyewall is now over the island. I bet they're glad it's not 80 knots right now. And Enzo, in full agreement on the track. The models seem to have had a few too many. It must be the complex interaction with the cut-off low. -- SkyFury 17:52, 14 July 2008 (UTC)

What do you think are the chances of it moving south after 3 days? I mean, it IS moving around a high. Because i don't know if it's just me, but this track does not look plausable. I think they just want to get rid of her lol. Even if it takes that crazy track forecasted by NHC, it'll be 19 days alive, putting it in the top 10 longest lasting Atlantic storms! Winter123 18:10, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * "DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH. THESE WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN A RAINBAND THAT WILL BE PASSING OVER BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE CLEARING BERMUDA...AND FOR THIS REASON THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLAND." Whoa, hello! Damn, this storm's been crazy. The conditions don't seem to matter much to Bertha, it just does whatever the heck it wants. Bermuda just got butt-f***ed. This bitch is strengthening right on top of them! -- SkyFury 19:26, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looking at that camera again, you can barely see anything other than some trees in the distance. Who honestly expected Bertha to do this? Not only that, but she's moving slow, Bermuda may be facing Bertha for some time. - Enzo Aquarius 20:15, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Now that the NHC is forecasting a hurricane, Bertha just won't die! If it does last 18-19 days, it will become the longest-lasting July hurricane in recorded Atlantic history! Also, I'm predicting six more storms before the month is out. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:42, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It's almost assuredly a hurricane again. The eye has fully redeveloped and deep convection has increased. This is why you never assume a storm is going to do anything. By assuming a storm is going to be mild, you are gambling with your life and the lives of your family. Technology has its limits; we saw them today. I made the mistake of underestimating this storm. That's easily a fatal mistake when you're in the path of one of these things. Just ask New Orleans. -- SkyFury 22:58, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Bertha just doesn't want to give up! I think she'll be sticking with us for another week or so. - Enzo Aquarius 16:13, 15 July 2008 (UTC)

It's official: "BERTHA IS NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN ATLANTIC HISTORY...WITH 12.5 DAYS AS A TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER. THIS ECLIPSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.25 DAYS OCCURRING IN 1916 FROM STORM #2." -- SkyFury 22:45, 15 July 2008 (UTC)
 * This has to be the weirdest storm I've ever seen. It's had an eye for like 5 days now even though its only 65mph. Secondly it's rare enough for a storm to stall at 30N... but in JULY??! Third, a cape verde storm ON JULY 1ST?? Imagine what kinds of records it would have shattered if it was just a few days earlier. Fourth, what is going on at this moment? It's like it's colliding with this Upper level low. I've just never seen anything like it. Massive tropical storm colliding with massive ULL. This must be a forecasting nightmare. The ranting is because its so late so I'll check up on this sometime after i wake up... -Winter123 07:40, 16 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I think Bertha's record is going to be difficult to beat, as she may still have TS status for a couple of days now. Is every storm this season going to break some record?! Nonetheless, Bertha does not want to die. :P - Enzo Aquarius 16:30, 16 July 2008 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
NRL's showing a new invest, on the border of the Carribbean, sitting on top of Martinique. --Patteroast 20:43, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, another invest in the Caribbean! Don't know where this one's going, models seem to be agreeing on the general track but not the exact track. I'm predicting, with still-limited data, but then again NHC just had a new update so I'll go check that, I'm predicting TS Christobal landfall on the Dominican Republic, then Cuba, then Cat. 1 landfall on Florida. Let's see what this one does. The oceans are still warming up, but the weason's getting active already. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:04, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Heavy shear. Looks like a small thunderstorm that would form a tornado in the midwest, except moving in the opposite direction. IMO this one has a 0.000...0001% chance. -Winter123 04:51, 3 July 2008 (UTC) (I shortened your number of zeros. Sorry, the page stretching out forever was driving me nuts. :P --Patteroast 23:44, 5 July 2008 (UTC))
 * Lol suit yourself. Anyway I was right, this got nowhere near developing. Sheared to death south of puerto rico-Winter123 03:40, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * A 0.000...0001% chance of what? Spawning a tornado in the midwest? Its chances are probably a lot higher than that, but you never know. SHIPS brings it up to a TS within 120 hours, I think it has a chance of emerging in the Gulf, though. Let's see what it does, if anything. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:43, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It practically turned to nothing overnight. This just should not have been declared.-Winter123 17:06, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Central Atlantic
Some models are predicting one or two storms forming in the Central Atlantic or Caribbean, especially CMC and GFS. Let's see if they form, and if so, what they do. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:14, 12 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Form from what when where and why? Other than Bertha, there's hardly much rain to speak of anywhere in the entire basin; Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf; let alone potential unrest. -- SkyFury 07:24, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

94L. INVEST
Woot! Am I good at this, or what? Models predict it heading into the south Caribbean or Venezuela, SHIPS predicts a cat. 2. NHC has also listed it as medium-chance for development. Let's see what it does, as this I think definitely is one to watch, could become Christobal. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Don't get so full of yourself, models predicted it at least 3 days ago. -24.29.40.161 17:23, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Goddamnit, I hate when it does this. The moment I say it's strangely dead out there, something bad happens. It's like in the movies when they say, "It's quiet...too quiet." Now the bad guys are shootin' at us. -- SkyFury 18:07, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Some rotation is evident. If this system can just organize itself some more, we may have a Depression. My personal prediction? Category 1 Christobal. - Enzo Aquarius 19:04, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * 7/9 models predicting TS or above within 120 hours, GFDL with the extra-strong forecast, with a cat. 3. It could enter the Caribbean or track north over Antigua and Barbuda and Puerto Rico, could also enter the Gulf. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:24, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC upgraded to High risk of development. I have a great feeling now that 94L will turn into a Depression within a day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 00:31, 14 July 2008 (UTC)

I normally don't say this, but I'd be stunned if this doesn't become Cristobal. If you told me it was a tropical storm right now, I wouldn't bat an eye; this thing is very healthy. -- SkyFury 01:44, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Hmm, this storm looks awfully familiar...Ernesto, anyone? However, just as Ernesto's early forecast, nowhere in its possible path is out of the woods yet...not even New Orleans. Models are now agreeing on entering the Caribbean, this could really be one to watch. However, there's a flank that's semi-connected to the storm that extends almost to the equator. So, if it enters the Caribbean, Venezuela may need to watch this too, as it could dump a lot of rain. I think it has a good chance of entering the Gulf, so many, many people should be watching this right now. The water in the area is pretty warm, but just like Ernesto, the models don't predict a hurricane until near the end of the 5-day period. The bad thing about hurricanes in this invest's exact spot is, you never know where it will hit. Much of the Gulf Coast got locky from Ernesto, but you never know with these types of storms. Another interesting paradox is, if Bertha strengthens, the gap in the Bermuda high will push this storm north and weaken it like Ernesto, but if Bertha weakens, then the high should push this storm far enough south to affect the Gulf, and maybe even spawn a second storm from that huge flank south of it. Let's see what happens, and I wouldn't be surprised if it were upgraded to Cristobal tonight or tomorrow. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:50, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Judging by the track predictions, I see a little 'Dean' or 'Felix' in this system. Some of the models have almost the exact same track as Dean or Felix had last year... - Enzo Aquarius 17:04, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Lost a significant amount of convection overnight but NHC says it's still on the verge. Conditions seem favorable and most of the intensity guidence brings it to at least 45-50 knots in 120 hours. -- SkyFury 19:30, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC still predicts it as high risk of development despite the loss of convection. We may be seeing a Tropical Depression by tonight or tomorrow. - Enzo Aquarius 20:16, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Hmm, a lot of the models are weakening this one or keeping it weak. I think I see a cross between an Ernesto and a Dean, and if so, New Orleans may need to watch this one. I think Haiti, Cuba, and the US Gulf Coast need to pay especially close attention to this one, but just like we learned with Ernesto and Dean, you can't accurately predict a storm like this more than 3 days in advance. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:55, 14 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Well this thing needs to get its sh!t together in a hurry or it's not even going to be a footnote. I'm stunned by how this thing fell apart. This time yesterday, it looked like Cristobal. Now it looks like scattered showers. -- SkyFury 04:20, 15 July 2008 (UTC)
 * As well, NHC has lowered their risk of this storm to moderate. It's still there, but needs to develop more. - Enzo Aquarius 16:39, 15 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Cool, it's just had another deep burst of convection! NHC has issued an STD statement, upgraded the development risk to high, and a hurricane hunter is to fly into the system later today and see if a TD has formed, so it looks like we just might have a TD by 5pm. It's already just 10km/h shy of a TS, and models predict movement toward the Dutch islands, then up towards Honduras and the Yucatan, and possibly into the Gulf. I predict it will pass between St. Vincent and Grenada as a TD, then make landfall near Cozumel as a strong TS, then possibly make landfall on Louisiana and Mississippi as a cat. 3, and head into southern Ontario while extratropical, but what happens beyond say Honduras and Jamaica depends on its exact track and potential shear, and if it even makes it there in the first place. Most models are keeping it weak, but CMC heads it into the Pacific to join that other AoI. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:57, 16 July 2008 (UTC)
 * The system is developing well by looks of satelite imagery, and it sure is dropping a ton of rain. I wouldn't be surprised if it is declared a TD this afternoon. - Enzo Aquarius 16:31, 16 July 2008 (UTC)

I don't know, it looks borderline to me. I wouldn't be surprised if the Hurricane Hunter gets there and finds out it's nothing. And even if it does become a depression, I can't see it developing much as the conditions it's heading into aren't that favorable -- SkyFury 17:32, 16 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off the coast of South Carolina
NHC's putting this as a low-risk for development, probably part of the frontal system and says "development is possible". If it does anything, it might hit Atlantic Canada or go into the open sea, or perhaps even create a Fujiwhara with Bertha, let's see if ti develops. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * This one looks almost pitiful enough for me to say it may have a chance. There's a clearly defined cyclonic turning to it even though you could probably take a boat through it and not get all that wet. -- SkyFury 18:10, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Meh, looks like nothing to me. Don't predict anything significant. - Enzo Aquarius 19:05, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Hmm, 6/9 models predict TS within 120 hours, could split into different parts, one joining Bertha, another heading towards Atlantic Canada, and another re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:32, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Well I am watching what just moved off Miami.Theres an upper level low moving east, but a weak midlevel spin right over miami. This is what i will be watching this evening. -Winter123 22:22, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It's just redeveloped in the Gulf, off the coast of Florida, and NHC has issued a low-risk for development. It could again head three different ways: this time either heading northeast towards New York and Nova Scotia, or stalling in the Gulf, or quickly heading into land to Southern Ontario while extratropical. Let's see what happens. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:00, 16 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Interesting little system, but I'm still keeping my thought from earlier. I see some storms and rain, but not a TS or higher. 20% of TD. - Enzo Aquarius 16:33, 16 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: near the Lesser Antilles
Now, this is probably nothing at the moment, but approximately 6/9 models predict TS within 120 hours, 8/9 for a TD or above. We could be looking at two possible zones of development here: In the Southwest Caribbean near Panama and Costa Rica, or off the coast of Central America in the Pacific. There is also another system off the Coast of Cape verde, but only 3/9 models predict a TS or above, but it looks like nearly all predict a TD or above. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:32, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * You sure they're not looking at 94L? It's headed that general direction. -- SkyFury 04:13, 15 July 2008 (UTC)