Forum:2015-16 South Pacific cyclone season

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Future start
The 2015-16 SHem TC year has begun. Put any storms below here. Ryan1000 00:00, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: SPac Vanuatu storm
the CMC,GFS,ECMWF,NAVGEM, are consistent that a weak TC will form by the end of the month.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:39, July 28, 2015 (UTC)

91P.INVEST
and more odd winter activity. now the JTWC started monitoring of this disturbance.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:56, July 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Typical of super Ninos. YE Pacific Hurricane  02:48, July 30, 2015 (UTC)

last time Raquel formed in tandem with Chan-hom. this time can be Tuni-Soudelor.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:15, July 30, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Distubance 01F
ok.... first time a named august storm in the SPac?  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:31, July 30, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 01F
What in the world? Despite being in moderate shear, convection is beginning to develop in 01F's eastern quadrant. Winds are set at 35 knots (40 mph) (1-min) by the JTWC based on an ASCAT pass and a PGTW Dvorak estimate. Also, RSMC Nadi is reporting a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg), and gives it a low to moderate chance of development within the next couple days (in early August!). As 01F moves SE in response to an STR located to its east, it is slated to encounter SST's of 28C and reach winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-min) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph) per the JTWC. After a day or two, however, 01F should accelerate into higher areas of shear and cooler SST's, prompting dissipation in about three days or so. Odile, in the odd case 01F becomes a Category 1 TC, it may be the first August named storm for the SPAC, but I am not sure. Nevertheless, Soudelor and this depression may prompt another Kelvin wave to fuel the already strong El Niño. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:11, August 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Talk about defiance. Just yesterday, it looked like 01F could become a very early SPAC named storm. Now, it has been been shredded apart by increasing shear. The JTWC has lowered the system's winds to 30 knots (35 mph) (1-min) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). Since conditions are only going to worsen hereafter, the agency has stopped issuing advisories on 01F. Meanwhile, RSMC Nadi has upped the depression's pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), and despite being located in 28C SST's and having good outflow in its southern quadrant, only expects a low chance of getting named in the next 24 hours. Well, it was still nice to see a depression at this time of the year. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, August 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * actually. it has reorganized himself again. so it not officialy dead.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:25, August 4, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 02F
guess no one is paying attention to this basin. this thing has a TCFA already! ._. -- HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  is Joaquin still there?  •  spam goes here ^_^  15:56, October 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Interesting! This depression, and the previous storm that formed in July, could be a sign of a very active season to come. But we won't see the TD receive a name, since the forecast has it about to dissipate by tomorrow. At this rate, the first named storm could come by November-ish.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:26, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It reached 50 mph (1min) but never got strong enough 3 minute winds to be named. Interesting to see sonething in the Southern Hemisphere already. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:58, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

93P.INVEST
and another invest... -- hon hon hon |  hon hon hon  •  hon hon hon  •  hon hon hon  16:41, November 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * The JTWC gives it a "low" chance of developing, but I don't expect much here. Probably will become a TD though. Steve820 Talk to me 03:25, November 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still a low chance, and the FMS hasn't got it up as a tropical disturbance yet... Steve820 Talk to me 01:11, November 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Died out, probably a while ago. Steve820 Talk to me 23:51, November 20, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 03F
will Tuni come out of this? --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  rektastic Patricia  •  spam goes here ^_^  15:35, November 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * I don't see it on JTWC yet, but hopefully Tuni does come from this <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 19:38, November 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * 03F has been on the JTWC outlook for about 12 hours as of this post. They comment on the system's increasing convection and organization in their latest report and estimate winds of 20 to 25 knots (20 to 30 mph) (1-min) . Also, the JTWC gives a medium chance of TC formation in the next 24 hours. On the RSMC Nadi side, they note SST's of 29°C in 03F's vicinity, and some models predicting a little intensification for 03F, which currently has a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg). Steve and Odile, I'm not sure which one of you two made the header, but in case you don't know, RSMC Nadi "titles" tropical disturbances the way I did above. And regarding the activity in the SPAC this year, the stakes are high for an active, if not record-breaking season. RSMC Nadi's seasonal outlook is calling for 11-13 named storms, well above the average of roughly just eight, and a 48% chance of above-average activity in the SPAC east of 165°E due to the strong El Niño. In addition, other strong El Niño years, like 1997-98, which saw a record number of tropical cyclone storms and the infamous Ron-Susan duet, and 1982-83, the season with the highest number of STC's, were very active as well. So this year could be along the lines of those two. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:08, November 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * It was Odile who placed the header, since I do know how RSMC Nadi titles things. The El Niño's going to cause an interesting season this year, can't wait! This system could be Tuni, hopefully. <font color="orange" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="#880" face="Tahoma">Happy Thanksgiving! 19:20, November 26, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F
the 3rd is the charm! designated 04P by the JTWC (ehh forgot to sign xD)  --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  rektastic Patricia  •  spam goes here ^_^  20:33, November 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * I am anticipating it to develop into "Tuni" over the next day or so. The South Pacific season is about to really kick off, and it should be a good and active year, according to predictions. <font color="orange" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="#880" face="Tahoma">Happy Thanksgiving! 20:35, November 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * The sattalite image looks like this system might turn into a tropical storm when it reaches American Samoa. Possibly in the next 36 hours. Abequinn (talk) 01:41, November 28, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Tuni
finally! --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  rektastic Patricia  •  spam goes here ^_^  17:32, November 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * I wont be surprised if Storm Surge will come to the National Weather Service office in Pago Pago, AS Abequinn (talk) 21:32, November 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Tuni is about to die soon, it is currently set at 45 mph/991 mbars. The JTWC already issued their final advisory on Tuni as it weakens and approaches dissipation. Also, Tuni is currently the only TC active worldwide, and other basins don't have a hint of TC activity at all. *epic yawn* <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:54, November 30, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Tuni
Died a while ago, if only people could pay just a little more attention to the SHem... <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 19:39, December 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Ula
No one updated this yet, but it's expected to become at least a cat 1 as it heads west-southwest towards Fiji. Ryan1000 03:18, December 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm predicting it could be quite powerful at its future peak. The JTWC is currently forecasting a peak strength of 75 knots, but I have a slight feeling it could get a bit more powerful than that. Some of the islands around Fiji should look out, due to the system's potential for impacts. <font color="green" face="Tahoma">Steve820 🎄<font color="red" face="Tahoma">Happy Holidays! 🎅 04:12, December 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's a nice looking storm, but it's a shame it can't go without impacts. Hopefully nobody dies from this storm if it insists on becoming strong. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:18, December 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * Ula is looking very good on satellite images, and although it's not updated yet it's definitely hurricane strength, and getting quite a bit stronger than forecast, with T-Numbers at T5.0/90 kts. However, this is not a good thing for any islands in it's path, especially for low-elevation cities. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:50, December 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * Screen_Shot_2015-12-31_at_11.46.06_AM.png


 * When it's updated, I would be shocked if it's not at hurricane strength yet. The satellite presentation is great, and I still see it becoming a bit stronger than the 80 knots forecast by the JTWC. <font color="black" face="Tahoma">Steve820 🎉<font color="red" face="Tahoma">2016 has arrived! 🎉 20:51, December 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * Currently Cat. 1 strength. Winds are at 70 knots (80 mph). I can't find what the pressure is though. :/
 * Leeboy100 2016 20:32, January 4, 2016 (UTC)