Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
I was watching this all day and it just got invested! 20% for this African wave. Could be Jose or Katia or whatever the Katrina replacement is CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:20, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

Katia is Katrina's replacement name. Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:23, August 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * This will likely become Jose. The wave behind this one will likely become Katia. Both have high model support however Katia will likely be overshadowed by her bigger brother Jose (as with Earl and Fiona of last year). Now the wave behind this might not be Katia as some models show a monsoonal TS forming in the Gulf around the same time this one forms, so it will be likely a race to the dreaded name. Yqt1001 02:45, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * But what is surprising is all the named storms we have until now i think last year we were by Earl or Fiona and I think Jose will become a name storm before September. Allanjeffs 03:08, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

30% chance now. Yqt1001 06:04, August 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * The models are a bit crazed with this one. Some take it northward and out to sea several days down the road and one of them even has it reversing direction at the end of the forecast period. All in all, I hope the long run takes will take this north of the lesser antillies and away from the eastern seaboard. Irene has already been bad enough... Ryan1000 06:59, August 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well i was wrong with my names, looks like this will be Katia. 40% chance now. Yqt1001 14:18, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS has this going above Leeward Islands.Cyclone10 18:52, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70% nowAllanjeffs 19:16, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow, here comes Katia. But although it will likely be a strong hurricane, it will probrably head north of the leewards and far out to sea. Ryan1000 19:32, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * And the train rolls on... -- SkyFury 23:22, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 100% CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:27, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm certain this is TD 12.10 L. NONAME 00:37, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

The models are in general agreement it will miss the lesser antillies to the north, with the exeption of NOGAPS, taking it towards the northern end of the islands in the long run. Hopefully it does remain a fish storm, Irene was bad enough... Ryan1000 05:41, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12

 * TD 12 is born expect to be Katia later.Allanjeffs 08:44, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * The latest NHC forecast takes it north of the Lesser Antillies in the long run. Although we may get our second hurricane out of this storm it probrably won't affect land, so this storm won't be such a big problem unless it makes it's way far enough west to affect Bermuda. However, the Bermuda High is still in the position to take this storm out to sea, and I hope that does happen for all intents and purposes. Ryan1000 09:06, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still not Katia. Also, if anyone cares about records, if TD 12 becomes TS Katia by the end of the month, this year will tie 1995 and 1933 for the second most active August ever (7 storms), behind only 2004's all time record (8 storms). Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:24, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * But then again, 6 out of 7 were tropical storms only. 2004, in August, already had 2 major hurricanes (3 if you count Alex) and 5 hurricanes (counting Alex).
 * How fitting would it be if Katia was christened today, the sixth anniversary of Katrina's landfall? That's more than a little eerie. And btw, despite the fact that we've only had one hurricane, we're only six days behind 2005's record pace. Katrina was named on August 23, Lee on August 31. Only 2005, 1995 and 1933 were ahead of our current pace at this point in the season, the latter by a mere 24 hours. -- SkyFury 21:22, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * TD12 is expected to gradually intensify over the next few days. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:29, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Our 11 name storm of the season has come to us AL, 12, 2011083000,, BEST, 0, 108N, 294W, 35, 1006, TS. Allanjeffs 01:29, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow dang it I was just about to say that by posting on the NHC RBT. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:23, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sorry cobra strike Allanjeffs 01:30, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Its alright, you're always first on calling RBTs : P. Anyways, the formation of 12 and to be Katia is the fifth earliest date for the season's eleventh storm. We used to be ranked higher, but 2011 was pushed back by 3 eleventh storms that formed on the same day and the same hour that took spots in second third and fourth. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:46, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * sorry that I am ignorant but what does RBT means Allanjeffs 02:17, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't know but I think I heard somewhere in means Running Best Track. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:23, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG they change td to ts but in the public advisory they leave it as td 12 i am so confusedAllanjeffs 02:48, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG they change td to ts but in the public advisory they leave it as td 12 i am so confusedAllanjeffs 02:48, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG they change td to ts but in the public advisory they leave it as td 12 i am so confusedAllanjeffs 02:48, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

I'm surprised it went this long without becoming Katia, but it should get the upgrade soon and then pass north of the Lesser Antillies and after that towards Bermuda, or best-case scenario, a fishspinner altogether. Ryan1000 03:23, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

But if you read the NHC discussion at day 5 it says it could move west Allanjeffs 03:44, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia
The eleventh named storm of the season formed south of the Cape Verde Islands on August 29, 2011 - the same day that Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Jose dissipated. The system became a tropical storm on August 30, receiving the name which was used to replace Katrina. It is likely to strengthen into a hurricane.

Extracted from the Wikipedia Section. Anoynymous022 5:55PM (UTC+8) 30 Aug 2011


 * It's about time! I didn't think Katia would take this long to become a TS, but I won't argue with mother nature. Keep your eyes out for her. Although she is currently forecast to miss the lessers, she has a chance to not miss them as well. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 13:03, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * She might have a chance to hit Bermuda.10L.NONAME 20:42, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph other way she makes landfall or not she will bring big bumber to the ACE Allanjeffs 20:46, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * This will probably be our first Cape Verde-type hurricane since Hurricane Julia unless you count Lisa as one. Forecast to be a major and slip betweeen Bermuda and coast. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:58, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFDL is suggesting a 150kt (170 mph) category 5 hurricane. IVCN modelling a 125kt (140 mph) category 4. ICON, SHIPS, and HWRF all looking for sold 125 mph category 3s. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:38, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I see this unlucky storm gets the fateful name. Yqt1001 23:05, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG I just saw that if katia becomes the strongest of the season i will win in the strongest storm of the season betting poolsAllanjeffs 23:32, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's going to have a good chance of becoming the season's strongest storm, but it doesn't have much of a chance of becoming a monster for anyone. Ryan1000 23:37, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Guessing by the WINDSAT pass of Katia finding 55kt (65 mph) winds on the outer perimeter of the central dense overcast, I see that the max winds should be at hurricane strength by now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:27, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

I don't think I need to tell anybody that this is a scary storm. But right now the models seem to think it'll ride the break in the ridge and stay out at sea. We'll see if that turns out to be the case. This looks like it's going to be a big one. Katia didn't quite make the Katrina anniversary, not forming until early this morning, but still pretty eerie. -- SkyFury 02:01, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * And the new advisory keeps the intensity. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:53, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * It appears an eye is forming around the center, could be a sign. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:01, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * We can't truly know it will be a fishspinner, and the slightest nudge in it's path can make all the difference; although Luis of 1995 and Dog of 1950 missed most of the Lesser Antillies, they didn't miss them by enough not to cause major damage. Luis tore apart St. Martin and a few other Caribbean Islands, doing around 2.5 billion in damage, and Dog was the worst hurricane in Antigua's history. There is still a possibility it could strike the northern Lesser Antillies and/or Bermuda, so although it's likely it won't affect land, it isn't impossible either, so don't write this system off just yet. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 04:40, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 65 mph, I have hope Katia will become a hurricane today. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:53, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * All of the models take this north of the lesser antillies, but it still isn't out of the question, and only GFS takes this thing onto a collision course with Bermuda in the long run. Furthermore, it is only forecast to hit 105 mph by SHIPS... Ryan1000 16:38, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70mph at 5pm. NHC: ...KATIA ALMOST A HURRICANE... Yqt1001 20:43, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Convection banding and organization has become better improved, very likely to be a hurricane next advisory. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:25, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Convection banding and organization has become better improved, very likely to be a hurricane next advisory. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:25, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia
Second hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season is here, according to the NHC ATCF RBT. Still sticking with a more west/southwesterly track than the NHC is indicating, but I still believe the only land areas that have to watch out for this is Bermuda and/or Canada. Earl-Igor hybrid maybe? Darren 23 Edits 00:40, September 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hurricane Katia the second of the 2011 hurricane season AL, 12, 2011090100,, BEST, 0, 148N, 436W, 65, 987, HU, Allanjeffs 01:06, September 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Finally heating up near Cape Verde and Mid- Atlantic.10L.NONAME 01:38, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This thing is no big threat to the lesser antillies in the long run, and even if Bermuda does get winded a bit, it hopefully it won't pull a Fabian. Ryan1000 03:50, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia (2nd time)
Apparently 15 kts of shear are taking a toll on Katia; it's down to 60 kts, 990 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 22:10, September 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * It seems the Lesser Antilles are definitely off the hook and perhaps Bermuda as well. Besides of that it might be pretty everything from Florida to Newfoundland or a fish-storm. Considering a US landfall, that might be even more dangerous as it would be for itself since Irene did not what many feared and with all the bla bla about "Has the NHC overwarned?" What I want to say, maybe people won't react very much anymore. --88.102.101.245 22:18, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * WTF?? I never saw this thing weakening in my future... Well, now that it's powering down, it might be a greater threat to the lesser Antillies than I earlier thought. I still hope it does stay away from the U.S. mainland, but I can't say the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico will get nothing at this rate. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:29, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not going to even come close to the Caribbean islands. Not even the GFDL, which has been the southern outlier all along, brings it close enough to do more than kick up the surf. Where the hell did this shear come from, geez? Some of the models made the upper low a player but none of them forecast this much shear this soon and for this long. That low has dug in and is not lifting out like expected. If anything, it's strengthened. Assuming it lifts out soon, which virtually all the models still call for, Katia should become a major hurricane. The GFS and HWRF make this a big problem for Bermuda. However, some of the models, like the ECMWF and GFDL, try to rebuild the ridge late in the period and push the storm more to the west. This would bring the the US east coast into play. And God knows they don't need another hurricane. -- SkyFury 03:32, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia (2nd time)
Back up to 65 kts, 991 mbar. NHC is predicting a left-hand turn late in the forecast period; wrong way, Katia. --HurricaneMaker99 15:06, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Katia, head in the direction of nowhere. We don't want you to be bad, so do us all a favor and miss everyone out to sea. Ryan1000 15:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Boy, Katia's really making me nervous with this ridging trying to build back in later in the period. The GFS and ECMWF create a huge break in the ridge at the end of the period, which would take Katia right up towards New England just in time for the 9/11 anniversary activities. Katia could very well make landfall sometime late on the 11th or early on the 12th. The GFDL and HWRF have stronger ridging and push a major hurricane Katia toward the Carolinas. I'm not sure I like either option, though with the first at least there's a chance Katia could miss the east coast entirely, but I get the sense that that cavernous break in the ridge at the end of the run may be overdone. It just opens up out of nowhere like Moses parting the Red Sea. Seems unrealistic. Anyway, this one is definately making me nervous. -- SkyFury 20:31, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

There was an interesting post by Jeff Masters today. A meteorologist for the TCWC of the Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Australia pointed out that the fate of former Typhoon Talas is crucial wether a building through over the United States comes in time and will be strong enough to push Katia to the Northeast before she's reaching land or only until after landfalling somewhere. According to that guy the JMA believes that Talas will accelerate towards the Bering Sea and begin extratropical transistion which it should finish somewhere south of Alaska. And there's the point where Mr. Masters is kind of vague. I wasn't able to figure out which circumstances would via jetstream influence the building up of the through. But never mind, it seems that the models don't know better either. :-) --88.102.101.245 22:15, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Pressure still a bit high for a hurricane. 10L.NONAME 22:20, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Katia is starting to rack my nerves a bit, but the trough that's currently passing the central Atlantic will hopefully knock her down a bit as another trough approaches the eastern seaboard over the next few days, which is currently over the Midwest. Let's hope that trough beats Katia to the eastern seaboard. As of now, if Katia heads far enough west, It could pull a Dora or a Sea Islands hurricane for the folks in Jacksonville, Florida, Savannah, Georgia, or even end up in Charelston, SC. I think a New England hurricane repeat is overexaggerating by a mile, but we'll see. Ryan1000 22:55, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

This storm is just crazy. 06z ATCF BTK has this at 60 kts... again. Darren 23 Edits 12:12, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

So far, saddest excuse for a hurricane. 10L.NONAME 14:48, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still a hurricane according to the latest NHC update. Yqt1001 14:58, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia (3rd time)
60 knots. This time because of upper-level winds. 10L.NONAME 21:03, September 3, 2011 (UTC)


 * WTF? It's not like it's affecting land or anything... No need to be generous here. Still a hurricane. Darren 23 Edits 14:58, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * T numbers are back up to 4. Looks like 12 hours as a TS again..at most. :| Yqt1001 21:42, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gah, Katia just can't get her act together. The shear is stronger than it was earlier anticipated. It may only peak as a C2 at this rate, but it likely will miss the eastern seaboard anyways. Ryan1000 04:00, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia (3rd time)
Katia's a hurricane again, per a 1100 UTC update statement. She can't make up her mind, can she :/ --HurricaneMaker99 11:49, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now a category 2 hurricane per latest ATCF information. wtf???Darren 23 Edits 12:43, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wait, what?! Do you have a link? --HurricaneMaker99 12:52, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here and AL, 12, 2011090412,, BEST, 0, 216N, 588W, 85, 968, HU Darren 23 Edits 12:59, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * btw, they got this intensity from Buoy data. Darren 23 Edits 13:08, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Do I dare say..RI? That's quite a pressure drop especially considering it was a TS not long ago. Yqt1001 14:21, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * It'll definitely be interesting to see what the NHC says with their next advisory. If that sort of trend keeps up, Katia could be Ike-ing or Igor-ing out. Somehow I don't remember Igor's episode very clearly (my most vivid memory of Igor was waking up to find it on the doorstep of Cat 5; that was just too freaking cool), so I'll just say that I haven't seen this sort of intensification in the Atlantic since Ike. --HurricaneMaker99 14:32, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh, and I see an eye trying to form: --HurricaneMaker99 14:40, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Do I dare say I called it..? ...KATIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... 100mph winds. Yqt1001 14:53, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down 26 mbar in just 6 hours... I'm getting a gut feeling that Katia's dropping the EI bomb here. --HurricaneMaker99 14:58, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eye visible. 10L.NONAME 15:31, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The eye is clearing out on visible, and infrared images have the eye better defined. This is a strong storm in the making undergoing RICobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:55, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah it already looks better than Irene. This might be a category 3 at the next update if they can find a buoy to get that data from. It sure is looking like one. Yqt1001 16:46, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The eye seems to be clouding up...again. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:48, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...but nonetheless ATCF is now at 105 mph. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:52, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Her eyewall wasn't fully closed until the clouds covered her eye. So technically she is actually organizing, but I'm not sure if she is still strengthening. Yqt1001 20:21, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, hello! Well, sounds like Katia got out of the shear lol! While my gut feeling is that it's going to turn away from the Carolinas and maybe the east coast entirely, everyone along the eastern seaboard still needs to pay real close attention to this thing. -- SkyFury 20:28, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * MIMIC, for some reason, STILL doesn't support very strong winds. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:32, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * New advisory at 105 mph as in the ATCF. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:15, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast track takes Katia turning off the eastern seaboard, but Bermuda can't be ruled out yet. It all really depends on how slow this thing moves. Ryan1000 05:23, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 100mph because of what seems to be an EWRC. Looks like the EWRC is over and man does Katia look beautiful. She seems to be strengthening again. Yqt1001 14:01, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Katia is now just a hair away from becoming the season's second MH; 95 kts and counting! Pressure back down to 965 mbar as well. --HurricaneMaker99 14:53, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE... 110mph, maybe MH at next update? Yqt1001 14:50, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh man, raw T numbers are getting close to 7 (140kts) with adjusted following close behind and final remaining at strong category 3. Yqt1001 16:48, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Omg this storm is absolutely beautiful. Large contracting eye, really really deep convection on the south and multiple vortices in the eye. Only the NE side of the storm is in dire need of repair, but it sure doesn't look like it does on visible. This storm is just beautiful. *tears up* Yqt1001 17:43, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is such a great looking Katia. That eye keeps getting better and that southern outflow, omg. Starting to remind me of Isabel. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:07, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * And her eye is starting to cloud over again (has tightened a bit too much) and the NE quadrant has been taking a huge beating. Not as pretty but still a category 3 storm imho. Yqt1001 20:28, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NE quad was healing noon time but now I see a gap in the NE quadrant in the water vapor. May fall apart or repair again. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:32, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Katia
UPDATED: with 115 mph winds.10L.NONAME 20:42, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here we go! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:51, September 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...KATIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA... 115mph because of the poor quality of the NE eyewall according to the discussion. She seems to be repairing it now though. Yqt1001 20:57, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Correct the eyewall is under repair again. "Pimples" and thunderstorm tops are growing. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:05, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NE quadrant has been completely repaired, with very cold cloudtops forming over the repair site, but now the north and NW quadrants are thining out. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:33, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think Katia looks the most organized she has been yet. Might be too late for a category 4 storm though, but we'll see. Yqt1001 22:55, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree. The eyewall has been repaired, strong convection on all quadrants. The west side seems to be thinning a bit but not much. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:29, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

According to the ATCF (I think that's what it's called, I'm not sure :P but anyways its the official data source the NHC uses), Katia is now a 135mph category 4 hurricane with pressures 4mb higher than Irene. We will have to see what NHC does and if they issue a special update or not to confirm this.. Yqt1001 00:38, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Starting to remind me of Bill 2009. (And yes its called the ATCF). CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:16, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * KATIA now a cat 4 AL, 12, 2011090600,, BEST, 0, 256N, 640W, 115, 946, HUAllanjeffs 01:39, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I haven't seen it upgraded by NHC yet, but it's pressure might still stay above Irene's even at it's peak. This storm may affect Bermuda and the east coast with some rain and waves, but most of the models take it between Bermuda and the eastern seaboard, so hopefully this will be a fishie in the future. Ryan1000 01:55, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now official.10L.NONAME 02:39, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's now 115/946. That'll probrably be her peak, if not a teeny bit stronger. It's pressure is still above Irene's though. Ryan1000 02:41, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC has Katia maintaining MH strength really far north, if not farther north than Bermuda. Bermuda is good for strong storms, but I'm not sure about direct hits from category 3/4 hurricanes. Atleast they aren't in the path of this storm! Yqt1001 02:54, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Man, what did Katia eat for breakfast this morning? Wow! That said, it looks a little disheveled on the satellite. No sign of the symmetrical appearance the discussion talked about. With this thing looking like it's going to stay out at sea, I think we can safely start to root for it. -- SkyFury 04:54, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * SkyFury, right after the NHC posted the upgrade to category 4 she just fell apart. She has lost her eye and a lot of her deep convection, looks like she is over. Fun to watch and absolutely beautiful earlier yesterday though. Yqt1001 14:06, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says she is going under an EWRC. She has weakened to 115mph at the 2pm update, forgot that they are issuing updates every 3 hours now that Bermuda has 3 hour updates... Yqt1001 18:14, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia (4th time)
Now down to 105 mph by the latest advisory, though it isn't over yet for Bermuda and the eastern Seaboard. However, I think we can safely assume Katia will miss most land. Ryan1000 21:06, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree. NHC predicts that we will get a "Hurricane Katia (5th time)" header, expected to regain MH strength after EWRC is over and then weaken to a hurricane again. Yqt1001 21:14, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * True. Infrared imagery is still solid despite a waning Katia this morning. However, despite 105 mph estimates from the official NHC, the MIMIC supports 130 mph winds. ? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:18, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Dry air has recently penetrated Katia's western rainbands and is now en route to the central dense overcast. This pocket of dry air may cause problems in the hurricane's EWRC. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:42, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * "...INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL OF KATIA IS DECAYING WITHIN A LARGER EYEWALL...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS NEARING THE END OF ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD OF KATIA SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO." New advisory. Same intensity. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:55, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 85mph winds now. Yqt1001 19:51, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * And down to 80mph. Yqt1001 21:20, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I knew the dry air pocket would affect her someday. Still a pretty big category 1, just like Irene was, just like Igor was. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:10, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * From Discussion 41:
 * A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS KATIA OR ITS

POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. INDEED...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE NEARING THE NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM.


 * I am wondering when the NHC gets rid of the hot potato by declaring the system extra-tropical, since Katia is nearing an area outside the NHC Miami AOR and so to avoid any complications of not established warning procedures.
 * I also read an article assuming that if Katia would dig into Scandinavia as a large rotating system it could prolongue the summer in Middle Europa by transporting warm air masses into that region south of its counter-clockwise rotation. --88.102.101.245 11:09, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * The whole North Atlantic is NHC's AOR! GFS has this making landfall in Norway.10L.Isaac 12:17, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says Katia has weakened to 85mph, last I looked it was 80mph, what was its second peak? Yqt1001 19:09, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Is that an eye in Katia starting to form? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:52, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Indeed it is. Katia's still holding together nicely, I'm impressed. She's up to 44 advisories now and she'll probably make it to at least 50. That's an impressive level of longevity (For anyone curious, Ivan's record of 73 is going to stand for a while. Igor was last year's leader at 55). "THIS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE BRITISH ISLES BY MONDAY." Yikes! Look out, UK! "London calling, to the far away towns. Now war is declared - the battle come down. London calling, to the underworld. Come out of the cupboard, you boys and girls." That song's been stuck in my head ever since I read that advisory. -- SkyFury 07:58, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Avila ended the 5am discussion well: "NO 96-HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN BECAUSE FORECAST POINTS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE BREAK A LOT OF SOFTWARE." It is still out there at 85mph somehow. Yqt1001 12:44, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Lol! That's hilarious! I didn't see that one. I love those guys. I was just getting ready to say, they might want to try and fix that. I know we don't get a lot of storms in the eastern hemisphere, but that seems kind of silly. How about that cone of uncertainty? It's almost non-existent. It don't think I've ever seen a CoU that narrow in my life, and this is my 7th season tracking hurricanes regularly online. Crazy. This is starting to look ugly for the UK, they better pay attention to this, because Katia's headed their way in a hurry. -- SkyFury 05:01, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still a Category 1, and I would be really surprised if Katia becomes Faith 2.0. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:49, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Katia
Sorry Andrew, that won't happen. The last advisory has now been issued; it's an extratropical cyclone. Ryan1000 16:23, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * And now she is extratropical with hurricane force windsAllanjeffs 16:22, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Katia delivered quite a show. Though a fishstorm she let us keep our breath. However the folks in the North of the British Isles and Norway will keep an eye on Katia's post-tropical career. Some models I saw predict that the system will landfalling in Scotland with sustained winds of 50 knots and more. --88.102.101.245 23:09, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Western Caribbean
After churning at sea for days, this tropical wave has become organized enough to be included in the National Hurricane Center's tropical weather outlook. It is currently at 10% as it moves westward over the next few days. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:08, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm pretty sure this will become Lee. This also might make another US landfall. Only thing is, it will be meandering around in the GOM for a few days, and this could wind up to a strong tropical storm like the ECMWF is suggesting. We'll see. Darren 23 Edits 22:24, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure. This area of disturbed weather is going to be interacting with land as it heads towards the gulf and it's not too well-organized. If anything, this could be a re-Erin(or better a re-Don) at most, but as of now, this storm isn't future Lee in my book. Ryan1000 23:27, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Some models like this storm. Well, we will have to see what happens to it over the next day or two. Yqt1001 01:15, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Both the GFS and ECMWF develop this, though neither of them seem to know what to do with it trapped beneath that high pressure. The GFS stalls it off Louisiana for days and then drifts it toward Florida (that would be really miserable for us down here on the Gulf Coast). The European promptly runs it into Texas. -- SkyFury 02:06, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

It's likely this thing will bring some rain, the drought-stricken state of Texas needs some rain, and Don didn't do sh!t to help out. So we could actually use a TS in Texas, so long as it isn't a re-Erin or a re-Allison. Ryan1000 04:40, August 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * 30% chance now. Not officially invested yet though.. Yqt1001 17:49, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
And it's invested. Yqt1001 18:32, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

Wildfires in Texas. Seems like they really need rain. 10L.NONAME 21:08, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

60% now Allanjeffs 23:47, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

Well, we have a possible tropical storm in our hands! And if this does become Lee by 11 PM CDT, 2011 will have tied August 2004 for the highest named storms in August (note: by local time, not GMT). Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:42, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Too bad, UTC is what counts :P Lee is going to be very, very tricky to forecast. There's a wide spread on the models and tracking mets, anywhere from Northeastern Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Personally, I'm gonna hold back forecasting on this storm as I really think this will stall over very very warm parts of the GOM. Darren 23 Edits 00:45, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * GDFL has this going west, HWRF has this going east, and NOGAPS, GFS has this going north, then going back to the gulf. A lot of confusion. 10L.NONAME 01:12, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60% already!? Wow that was 2 days earlier than I expected. I honestly didn't think this would have a chance to organize until tomorrow at the earliest. Looks like Lee might be closer than we expected. Yqt1001 02:56, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Last I saw this thing, it was only at 10%. To be honest, looking at the satellite, I'm not all that impressed. It's getting sheared to hell right now. Granted the shear should decrease soon, as most of the models are predicting, but I'm not sure I would've upped it to 60% yet. That said, virtually all the models develop this. The GFS crawls it right by us down here in southern Alabama, which would be miserably soggy. Yuck. -- SkyFury 03:29, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is a big f**king mistake. How in the world could this thing hit 60% right now? It's in a hellhole of shear and it will be interacting with land real soon. Oh well. That being said, it probrably won't be as helpful to Texas as I thought it would be. Furthermore, it probrably won't exceed minor or moderate TS intensity. I would expect 50-55 mph at most. Ryan1000 03:50, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don´t think so if it becomes Lee it has a big shot at becoming a hurricane Allanjeffs 04:10, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's actually less organized than it looks. The center of circulation is in the south-central gulf of Mexico, not near the Florida Keys where all the convection is. So Lee is actually a bit winded as of now, and due to it's proxmitity to land(1-2 days away), it won't have too much time to strengthen anyways. Ryan1000 05:02, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This one has me completely confused. First of all, the models develop it in the western Gulf south of Louisiana, what the hell is it doing off the western tip of Cuba? Second, the models, all of which develop it, mind you, sweep it down to the southwest. Southwest? Huh? That's such an odd direction for storms in the Gulf. There've been a few, Anita 1977 most notably, but it is damn rare. GFS takes it over northeast Mexico as a strong tropical storm. The ECMWF blows it up into a hurricane and runs it over Padre Island. The GFDL runs it into Port Arthur as a Cat 1 (oh yeah that's realistic ) before making the southwest turn. HWRF meanwhile is so completely confused its head just explodes; dancing the storm around the northern Gulf like a hamster on LSD. The one consistency is that they all develop it into at least a tropical storm. Given the level of uncertainty right now, this is definately one to watch. -- SkyFury 06:53, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are a little crazed on where this one will go; in a way, this reminds me of 1985's Juan and it's bizzare track towards southern Louisiana. All of the models take 93L into, or close to, Louisiana to some extent, but they are completly puzzled as to what it will do afterwards... Ryan1000 08:56, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70%10L.NONAME 12:05, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * 80% now. I wonder what the NHC track will look like for this storm when it does develop. Ryan1000 19:01, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This storm could really complicate my Labor Day weekend, especially if the GFS forecast verifies. I was going to drive home to Atlanta tomorrow. It looks like I may be able to just make it before the heavy rain arrives but the NWS is now calling for 5-10 inches of rain here in Mobile over the weekend, possibly more. And even though it may ease up by the time I come back, who knows what the flooding situation will look like. The models are having a tough time with this one. You're right, Ryan, it really does remind me of Juan, which is really bad news for Louisiana. The GFS stalls it off Louisiana and slowly crawls it east over the northern Gulf Coast before finally weakening it over central Alabama and GA. The ECMWF also stalls it off LA but then shifts it back south, blows it up into a hurricane and then runs it into Galveston. Who knows what this thing'll do. It could do just about anything at this point. -- SkyFury 21:00, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are very spaghettish with this one, but they all reject Texas. : (. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:48, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Although it could catch the folks there off-guard, it hopefully won't cause too many problems for them... It certainly won't be as problematic as Irene was, but this storm certainly bears watching. A re-Allison is what i'm fearing most, but a re-Juan would also be devastating as well. Ryan1000 21:54, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * TD 13 is here my friends invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al132011.ren Allanjeffs 23:13, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
Official word from NHC. Forecast to peak at approx. 50 kts before landfall in Louisiana. --HurricaneMaker99 00:07, September 2, 2011 (UTC)


 *  The following post was formerly under the subheading  =Tropical Depression 13
 * And TD 13 heads for Lousisana. 99.58.60.158 00:18, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Merged subsection since I already made one for TD 13, and the one 99 made was in the wrong place. Sorry, 99 :/ --HurricaneMaker99 00:31, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Um, the NHC has kept the path open pretty wide for this thing. HM99, this thing could end up everywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Galveston. There is no direct certainty to this storm's path, which is why TS warnings are up for the entire coast of Louisiana and even Mississippi. This storm is dangerous because there's just no telling how strong it will get, nor where it will go. Keep your eyes out for this storm. Ryan1000 00:55, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * This would be a good time to remind everyone to Beware The First Storm Of September ! ! ! -- SkyFury 03:22, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't want an Allison out of this, but due to it's erratic, slow movement, this could get ugly when it approaches the coastline. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 04:59, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee
It's here! 35 kts, 1003 mbar per the 1pm (CDT) interim advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 17:36, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The models basically just camp this thing right over us down here on the Gulf Coast for five days. Ugh, this could really suck. Some forecasts are calling for up to 20 inches of rain. The last thing we need down here is another Danny. I may be canoeing to class on Tuesday. -- SkyFury 20:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

The fact Lee is moving slowly may increase the chance for signifigant flash flooding, but it has a long way to go to reach an Allison-like flood. This could be the biggest flood disaster to hit this area since Juan in 1985. This thing is a long ways from it's landfall but Lee is so big it's upper rainbands are already affecting the big easy. If it moves as slow as the forecast is indicating, this storm could be very bad for the folks down in New Orleans, or for *gulp* you Eric? Ryan1000 22:12, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * And that stupid high pressure over Texas is causing trouble for Louisiana whom will have to deal with Allison 2.0. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:18, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * ... and some of the landlocked states.10L.NONAME 23:56, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I have a feeling that Lee will become a re-Danny or re-Allison (1989 and 2001) if he stalls over the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:46, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * What? Danny wasn't used during 1989... Juan was in 1985, and when it stalled by Louisiana it caused 2.8 billion in damage due to flooding and winds. If this thing puls a Juan or an Allison, things could get ugly. This storm is moving rather slowly through the gulf, but we'll have to wait and see what it will do. Ryan1000 05:24, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * 50mph winds now. I wouldn't be surprised if this storm causes considerable flooding damage in Louisiana..it's not every day that 25 inches of rain is expected to fall on a large portion of a state...(if not more when it starts weakening) Yqt1001 06:51, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Almost making landfall. And Ryan, you kinda misunderstood my post. I actually meant: "I have a feeling Lee will become a re-Danny (the 1997 one) or a re-Allison (either the 1989 or 2001 incarnation).
 * Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:50, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph winds. Yqt1001 14:47, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Near landfall.10L.NONAME 14:50, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, I thought you meant 1989 and 2001 respectively. Anyways, I don't think there was too much uncertainty about this thing's track by NHC as it aproached Louisiana. It could have done so many things, but it almost perfectly followed the NHC forecast as it went. It pretty much made landfall now, but the big threat from this one is the inland flooding threat, and there is still uncertainty about where it will go further down the road. This storm is far from over, and when NHC is done with this thing the HPC will take over for them. Ryan1000 16:44, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Near landfall.10L.NONAME 14:50, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, I thought you meant 1989 and 2001 respectively. Anyways, I don't think there was too much uncertainty about this thing's track by NHC as it aproached Louisiana. It could have done so many things, but it almost perfectly followed the NHC forecast as it went. It pretty much made landfall now, but the big threat from this one is the inland flooding threat, and there is still uncertainty about where it will go further down the road. This storm is far from over, and when NHC is done with this thing the HPC will take over for them. Ryan1000 16:44, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

Winds are down to 45 kts (50 mph), but the pressure is down to 988 mbar. Huh. --HurricaneMaker99 00:26, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2011 is kicking out some huge storms now I guess. I'm just going to remove the theory that winds must catch up to pressure eventually for this year starting right now. Yqt1001 00:32, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Lee will likely dissipate later today or Monday, but the threat won't be over by that time. It still needs to be watched as inland flooding could be severe from this minor storm. Ryan1000 04:03, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Made landfall. Yqt1001 14:24, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Finally.10L.NONAME 15:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Lee is gaining some central storms as it heads for Livonia, LA. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:58, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lee
Down to a TD. Last advisory issued from the NHC, though it's still technically a tropical cyclone so I dunno what in the world is going on. Yqt1001 02:46, September 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * This is the first time i see a depression with 990mb pressure Allanjeffs 02:51, September 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * This is the first time I have seen that a depression having that low pressure since early 2011 in NIO (984.) Anyways, last advisory issued by NHC. 10L.NONAME 03:25, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now the HPC will take over for them, because even though it's gone from NHC, it will still cause inland floding, some of which could be catastrophic. Ryan1000 04:41, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I just drove through what's left of Lee's rain bands in north Georgia and central Alabama and let me tell you, it was exhilarating. In southern AL, there was crazy thick overcast. The edge of it extended out as far as I could see in either direction. It almost looked like it was swirling around us. And with me arriving at sunset, it was pretty surreal. -- SkyFury 04:49, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Like the Gulf storm above, models show development for this wave near Bermuda (of course). Judging from the activity near Bermuda this year, this will develop into a storm, but max out at 50mph. Yqt1001 01:15, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">GFS has this, but it shouldn't survive too long. 10L.NONAME 01:18, August 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah I saw it on Wundermap but I didn't suspect it to be an AOI right now...anyways, predictions from me take it to a 50 mph tropical storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:23, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure what to make of this one. Both major global models develop it. It almost looks like a re-Cindy. They develop it soon too, the GFS in just 72 hours. -- SkyFury 02:09, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't trust what is said now, whether or not it's on NHC. Jose had a near 0% chance of developing when it was on the TWO and the next thing you know it's a TS shooting out to sea. Anyhow, this could become Lee if the Caribbean disturbance doesn't do so in a few days. Ryan1000 04:40, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

10% now. Yqt1001 12:28, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
At 50%. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:06, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like we'll see Maria(or Lee if the other disturbance doesn't make it before this one), out of this storm. It will likely not be affecting anyone as it shoots out to sea. Ryan1000 19:01, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * That part of the Atlantic has been really active this year for some reason, I don't know what it is. -- SkyFury 21:03, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am guessing that there is a very northerly jetstream and not as much shear as usual. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:52, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 40%, but producing TS winds. --HurricaneMaker99 00:12, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 60 percent. Maybe we'll have Lee with the 0900 UTC advisory. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. --88.102.101.245 06:51, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">In that case, the GOM disturbance might be Maria instead. This storm will be heading seaward, but it will contribute one more TS to the activity. Maria became named at this time in 2005, for the record, but unlike 2005, most of the storms this year were weak, short-lived, or stayed at sea. Irene was the only bad storm thus far this year, and I hope it's the only one too. Ryan1000 15:20, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Back to 40%10L.NONAME 19:55, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It is painful how close this was to being Lee/Maria. If those thunderstorms had migrated just slightly closer to the center, NHC would've called it. Now it doesn't look like it's going to happen. Wind shear is increasing and the water's getting colder. 94L missed its chance. Crap. It looked so good too. I'm not convinced it wasn't a tropical storm anyway, if briefly. Ryan, yeah TD13/Lee and 94L were threatening to develop right at the same time. -- SkyFury 20:04, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * And all the way down to 10%. So long, 94L, see you in a couple weeks! --HurricaneMaker99 00:26, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's becoming extratropical.10L.NONAME 00:36, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

It's gone, but here is a good analysis to why we are seeing so many storms here and why we aren't seeing many in the Caribbean and what is up ahead. Yqt1001 17:51, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cape Verde
It's starting to look pretty decent for development. Not much model support but it should be on the TWO later. Yqt1001 18:44, September 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * I second that now the Atlantic is much more active than the Eastern Pacific. Allanjeffs 23:01, September 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * 20% now. Yqt1001 13:58, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Rapidly up to 60%. May see a Maria out of this and Nate in the southern Gulf. 72.244.73.202 18:18, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Rapidly up to 60%. May see a Maria out of this and Nate in the southern Gulf. 72.244.73.202 18:18, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested apparently Yqt1001 14:13, September 5, 2011 (UTC
 * Oh wow, 60%! Yqt1001 17:40, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * This will also have to face the shear that exists in the Mid-Atlantic like Katia did. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:16, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hope it will be a future fish; if anything, I hope it gets caught up in Katia's outflow and being an epic fail. We were on a hot streak with them with Cindy, Franklin, Gert, and Jose, and if (Nate) can become one too, that would be just great. We don't want any more bad storms; Irene was more than enough. Ryan1000 02:10, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * This one looks good to me, but the models look lost. None of them really initialize it well. The GFS eventually does something with it in about three days, taking it out near the Bahamas as a tropical storm, but the other models look like they're struggling to even see it. We'll have to see if they get their act together in later runs, but conditions seem favorable for development. Katia's outflow could create some shear problems in the near term, but after Katia moves out, I think conditions will become more conducive. However, the GFS develops a break in the ridge later in the period and starts to take it more to the north. Therefore, this thing, whatever it becomes, shouldn't threaten land. -- SkyFury 05:33, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

90%, TD14 is coming. Yqt1001 18:11, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY." I expect them to initiate advisories on TD14 at the 5pm forecast period. The models still don't have a real good handle on this. The GFS has the most plausible solution, taking it up towards Bermuda as a strengthening tropical storm. All the models, if they develop it at all, are slow to strengthen it. -- SkyFury 18:36, September 6, 2011 (UTC) 14 TD of the season forms invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al142011.ren Allanjeffs 20:33, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14
Confirmed by the NHC at 5pm. 35mph, 1008mb. Expected to follow an early Irene path before curving out to sea, but we'll see how true that is. Probably will become Maria in the next day or so, meaning that the first week of September alone will have 2 named storms. If we keep up this pace we will have 20 storms by the end of September and October will only need to make 2 storms to get Alpha. Wow, this year is crazy. Oh and this has a H (hurricane) in it's forecast! Yqt1001 20:40, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The NHC takes it close...too close... to the lesser antillies. Wrong way, Maria. Given the fact it will be coming right into Katia and the other AOI, this thing needs to develop fast until it gets sheared to shreds, hopefully. Ryan1000 20:54, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan, Maria-to-be is well south of where Katia travelled and she hangs back a lot. Worse, she's almost on the same track as Irene was. Unless it does not change the direction a little bit more to the south what would bad at all this is definitely another 'cane to be aware of if you're living somewhere between Florida and Newfoundland, including the Bahamas and Bermuda. Now if goes more to the south, Maria could pull a Dean what won't be good either. --88.102.101.245 21:39, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * While pre-Maria may be following Katia's footsteps, Maria is more southerly. Katia traveled straight into 2 areas of 25-30 kt wind shear, while Maria will be heading for at max 20 kt wind shear. But true, she'll have to develop, FAST. Tropical depressions tend to not survive 20 kt wind shear. However, my current forecast (not released yet) is a bit stronger and aggresive then the NHC. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:28, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 88, this depression will run into two big problems as it approaches the lesser antillies. One is the AOI behind Katia which will create some shear over this thing as it catches up to it. The second thing is Katia's outflow, which will sucker-punch this thing dead if it gets too close. Fiona followed Earl last year and it just died out from that. Katia's outflow will be right in front of this thing when it reaches the lesser antillies, so itcould actually weaken and roll into Hispaniola and Cuba, dying from land interaction instead of strengthening and hitting the U.S. We don't need another Irene anyways. This thing needs to follow Katia out to sea. Ryan1000 02:41, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but first, the AOI isn't going to be a problem for TD14. Second, Katia will be lifting out rapidly to the northeast, so it's shear influence on the central Atlantic will be diminishing. It may be mostly gone by the time TD14 gets far enough west to be sheared. At best, it'll stall development somewhat. Fiona was much closer to Earl last year and Earl was a Cat. 4. Hell they were so close, we were talking about whether there might be some Fujiwara interaction, a discussion that proved mute when Earl sheared Fiona into oblivion. Weakening Cat. 2 Katia is 2,000 miles from TD14. Big difference. To be honest with you, I'm not sure why the models are so unenthusiastic. Stable air and residual 10-20 kt shear may hinder intensification, but I expect conditions to be greatly improved by the time it reaches the Leeward Islands. I would not be surprised at all to be talking about Hurricane Maria in 5-7 days. However, I do think it will follow Katia out to sea, but we'll see. The Leeward Islands definately need to stay tuned though. -- SkyFury 03:42, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

The thing about this storm is most of the models take it following Katia anyways. Only 2 of the reliable models take this storm into the leewards over the next 5 days, Eric. GFS takes this thing striking some of the upper islands, while GFDL takes it into the Virgin Islands and PR in the long run. Every other model has this thing following Katia, perhaps affecting Bermuda as it turns out to sea. Ryan1000 04:26, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">HWRF also takes it pretty close to the Leewards. I did say I thought it would follow Katia, didn't I? The ECMWF still keeps it a depression and takes it into the Caribbean, killing it on the mountains of Hispaniola. The latest run of the GFS has actually shifted south with the latest run, giving creadence to the NHC forecast and the threat to the Leeward Islands. However, it's possible that the southward shift is due to the GFS keeping it weaker for longer. I still don't understand why the models are so unenthusiastic with this one. Wind shear has actually decreased out ahead of it, 5-10 kts all the way to 55W when the outflow Katia kicks in. And that too should decrease as Katia recurves into the north Atlantic and should be greatly diminished by the time TD14 gets there. I really don't see anything keeping this from strengthening. It's got a little bit of a stable environment ahead of it and the circulation's still getting it's act together, so I don't think it will rapidly intensify, but I don't see why it shouldn't steadily intensify through the forecast period. -- SkyFury 07:08, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It seems we have Maria now AL, 14, 2011090712, 128N, 410W, 35, 1005, TS Allanjeffs 13:01, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Maria
As of right now 50mph, 1003mb. Yqt1001 19:10, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Most of the models take Maria close to, or onto, the leeward islands, but the faster it strengthens, the more likely it will turn out to sea. I hope it does pull a Katia for all intents and purposes, because the shear isn't as strong as I earlier anticipated, but it's still there a little. That being said, we could have a hurricane when it nears the lesser antillies. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 19:54, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Well hello, Maria! I still don't have a clue why the models are so unimpressed with this thing. The conditions seem favorable; hell, it jumped from 30 knots to 45 in just six hours, and the cloud pattern looks like it's getting better organized. I see no reason why Maria shouldn't strengthen, but the GFDL is the only model that really does anything with it. I don't know why that is. -- SkyFury 20:06, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

I hope this thing does become a fishie, but not only do we have Maria, Katia, and 96L(Nate), but also newly-formed Kulap in WPac. The tropics are going donkers now, and we have tons of possible new storms coming in our future. Ryan1000 20:18, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Dang Maria has a really small wind field. And yes 96L is now Nate, the tropics is going donkers/bonkers. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:12, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Maria seems it doesn't want to become a hurricane until the Caribbean Islands are reached. Hurricane Owen OWEN2011


 * Maria is pulling a Gaston and going to fast. It's LLC is getting pulled quite a bit from the CoC and she is weakening...she is slowing down though, should pull back together and become the 3rd or 4th hurricane of the year sometime in her life. Yqt1001 19:12, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Expected to be a TD at landfall in the Lesser Antilles, however they show a near hurricane TS in 5 days and quite a bit more south of the 2pm est advisory. Yqt1001 21:03, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't find a Coc in satellite imagery. I'm not even sure if Maria is even a tropical system right now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:39, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's much less organized than I thought it would be by now. This storm is moving so fast, it might just breeze through the lessers and not do anything signifigant whatsoever. Ryan1000 22:54, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I love how the recon plane conveniently had comm problems that prevented it from determining whether Maria still existed. Maria must be running some kind of conspiracy lol! Well the LLCC sure sucks if it exists at all, but there's no shortage of deep convection or cold cloud tops, so I'll give Maria the benefit of the doubt, but it won't take much to disrupt that tenuous circulation. Maria's got some work to do if it wants to be on the brink of hurricane strength by the time it reaches the Bahamas. That said, if it holds together, the US better pay attention, becuase it'll be awfully close to the east coast by then. -- SkyFury 07:34, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * CoC is back.10Q.INVEST 20:31, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * The convection burst is still pretty amazing condsidering Maria was so close to being non-exsistant (imo it was dead for a while back there). CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:48, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maria, in contrast to Nate, is looking a lot better. GFS runs this right over Bermuda as a pretty sizable hurricane. I personally don't think it'll go that far east. It'll probably follow Katia right out to sea. Boy, these persistant, deep troughs have really saved our ass over the past couple of years. We just keep getting lucky. I get the feeling that one of these days, that luck will run out. -- SkyFury 03:42, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Our luck did run out with Irene earlier this year, unless you're waiting for an(official) U.S. MH landfall. Maria could still cause flooding in the Lesser Antillies, but given the area was already damaged by Irene, Maria might be an afterthought compared to her. It might cause a rather lousy weekend for the folks in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico but overall flood damage should be limited due to it's quick movement. Afterwards, I would see her following Katia out to sea, but it could still cause some rough surf on the east coast from high waves. Ryan1000 03:51, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

As bad as Irene was, it could've very easily been exponentially worse. Maybe you're right. Maybe Irene was The One. 46 deaths and $7 billion in damage is pretty devastating. It's definately a stretch to say we dodged a bullet, but I don't think many people realize just how lucky we got with that storm. It had all the makings of something out of It Could Happen Tomorrow. But instead of Katrina, we got Floyd. What the hell happened to Maria? Last night, it looked like it had finally gotten its act together, the shear was going to decrease and we were possibly looking at a hurricane down the road. Now it's on the doorstep of death...again? WTF? That's been the story of this entire season. Pissy storms that never realize their potential. We've had 14 named storms for crying out loud, but all but two have been shortlived, pissand storms. At least a few had seemingly favorable conditions but failed to intensify. This really has been unbelievable. Mysterious shear, dry air coming from nowhere, or even weakening for no apparent reason at all. To me, the complete and utter power outage has been as much or more of a story this season as the number of named storms. We could easily have half the number of storms we've got now. -- SkyFury 17:09, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * It looks like there is a wall blocking Maria in the satellite imagery. And look here, can you spot the COC? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:22, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maria is still too far away to show up on San Juan radar. The center, such as it is, is still nealy 300 miles away. Even the long range radar doesn't see any further than 150 miles on a good day. -- SkyFury 23:21, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just because Irene wasn't as bad as it could've been doesn't mean we "dodge the bullet". Although it could've been worse, 10 billion in damage and 55 deaths is still a tremendous ammount of damage and rather high death toll for the U.S. It's certainly one of the top 15 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history, and Vermont is practically underwater from the massive flooding caused by Irene. It was worse than even the great hurricane of 1938 in some places. Was Irene the one hurricane we were fearing all season long? Will we have a storm more destructive than Irene this year? We'll have to wait and see. Although Maria passed over the northern Lesser Antillies last night, the majority of the convection was away from the circulation, so overall damage was probrably light, i'm assuming. Nate made landfall with 60 mph winds, so no hurricane will come out of him. It also should be noted this is what the NHC said in their forecast discussion:

ALTHOUGH SHEARED...FINALLY MARIA LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE... About time. Ryan1000 14:39, September 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * The models GDFL and HWRF really like this, they have this at Cat. 5 strength after leaving the Leeward Islands.10Q.INVEST 19:26, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bah those models have blown up every storm this year. Hurricane hunters found 60mph winds in Maria though, somehow the pressure at 1007mb? They must have the wrong center. (exact same thing happened with Irene in the same location actually, HH were following a weak center with 1007mb pressure then they found the real center with a pressure of 999mb) Yqt1001 19:31, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

Where is everyone? Has this year bored everyone out of their minds? Anyways Maria has been sheared apart by a ULL just to it's north and is now 50mph and no longer expected to become a hurricane. Yqt1001 21:10, September 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Guess so... We have gone rather silent since Irene damage-wise. I hope we will have no other bad storms, but we still have a good chance of that in the rest of September or even October and November. Although we have had a lot of epic fails in this season, we remain under threat until it's over. The ACE sucks this year, but it was a bad season still with Irene. Ryan1000 22:40, September 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">sorry to tell you Ryan but in Ace we are ok we have 68.5 even compare to the Epacific that is very below normal to this date it have 54.3 so I think that the atlantic is ok but i need to say its true we are bad by individual systemAllanjeffs 03:05, September 13, 2011 (UTC)

Allan, that's what I go by. The ACE/storm of 2005 was the same as it was last year, but because we had so many storms that year, the ACE was still the highest ever. 1950, by contrast, had an ACE of 243 out of only 13 storms, an ACE/storm of 18.7. This year's EPac season has an ACE of 54.3 as a whole, but out of only 7 storms, that's an ACE/storm of 7.7. This year's AHS has an ACE of 68.5 thus far, but out of 14 storms, that's just pathetic. The ACE/storm thus far is only 4.75 in NAtl. I do not base activity off of overall ACE, I base it off of ACE/storm. Comparing the ACE/storm of 1950 to 2005, it's 18.7 vs 8.6. If 1950 had 28 named storms like 2005 did, it would have an overall ACE of 523.3. That's a big difference. Ryan1000 04:06, September 13, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Nobody's here because Maria is failing miserably (what else is new) and the rest of the Atlantic is dead. Ryan, with regards to Irene, I did say "It's definately a stretch to say we dodged a bullet." That's word for word what I said. I copied and pasted that. But as bad as it was, and it was really bad, it could've easily been absolutely catastrophic. I shudder to think what would've happened had Irene hit NC as a Cat 3 and NYC as a Cat 2. It really was setting up to be an absolute worst case scenario right out of It Could Happen Tomorrow. It even hit at the peak of the astronomical high tide. It made landfall on Coney Island as a tropical storm and it still brought an eight foot storm surge to Long Beach, NY. ''Eight feet! From a tropical storm!! ''Are you kidding me? Imagine what it would've done as a Cat. 2. It would've been Hurricane Ike in NYC. Huge swaths of the Long Island coast would've been laid to waste. NYC would've been underwater, probably shut down for a week or more. I don't think people realize just how close we came to a historic catastrophe. But Irene weakened much faster than expected thanks to a poor recovery from an eyewall replacement cycle, some dry air infiltration, and unusually slow movement over eastern NC, thus sparing at least the coastline. Note that Irene is the far more interesting topic of discussion here. Maria is turning into yet another disappointment. -- SkyFury 07:47, September 13, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, I am aware Irene could have been so much worse, but even though we got the best-case scenario out of Irene and suffered the least ammount of damage possible, we still took a beating, a 7(10 if you count the Caribbean) billion-dollar one at that. I know it looked like it was going to be the It Could Happen Tomorrow episode of the NYC hurricane which came out in January 2006 on TWC, but all that matters is that didn't happen, and we're all thankful we swallowed the bitter pill that could have been a killer toxin. Just because Irene wasn't as bad as it could've been doesn't mean she wasn't bad overall though, and that is all it takes for this season to be memorable for a long time to come. Although we might not get so lucky in the future, we certainly don't want any more storms with 10 billion damage figures either. Ryan1000 20:02, September 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * After doing some research I have determined that the 5 most active seasons on record (2005, 1995, 1887 and 2010) have all experienced a "storms drought" around now. 2005 only had Ophelia active between September 10th and September 17th. 1995 only had Marylin active between September 13th and September 17th. 1887 didn't even have a storm active between September 22nd and October 6th. 2010 only had Nicole active (which could be debatable be a waste of a name like Jose a few weeks ago) between September 26th and October 6th. Also in 2005, 1995 and 2010 at least half of the retired names formed after the "storms drought" in mid-late September (even if you count Emily of 2005). Now of course this is a normal pattern, being that most storms late in the season form in the Caribbean however this shows htat the season is not done being deadly yet. 1887 doesn't count because the amount of damage known is too limited to know what names would've been retired. 1887 only had 2 major hurricanes, both of which formed before the drought. 2010 had all the storms after the drought become hurricanes. All of the seasons have one very clear thing in common with each other though, more major hurricanes formed before the drought then after the drought (well 1995 had Marylin become a major hurricane during the drought). Not saying anything that any of this will happen in 2011, but I was just curious to see if this storms drought during the peak occurred before. Yqt1001 01:14, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * We may or may not have an active late season... 2004 had 4 names kicked off the list, but not one of them was after Jeanne, which hit in late September. Every year from 2005 until now(except 2006 and 2009) has featured a retired name in October or November. 2001 had 4 hurricanes when September ended and the season ended with 9. Then again, 2007 also had 4 hurricanes when September ended and finished with only 6(Karen was still believed to have been a strong tropical storm by then, but was upgraded in post-season), so although this season is not over, we can't be certain the latter part of 2011 will be bad. We'll just have to wait and see. Ryan1000 10:49, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well whatever happens, Maria is getting her act together and is now a 60mph storm again. Predicted to get to 70mph now... Yqt1001 12:03, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * About half the models make Maria a hurricane over the next few days, but she still has to deal with Katia's outflow, and NHC is on the conservative side. She has been moving rather slowly over the last few days, but with little change in intensity. We're past the peak of hurricane season, so from here on out(except briefly rising around October 19), things just go downhill in the tropics. Ryan1000 19:54, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * We'll see. Recon found 85mph flight level winds so if Maria can steadily organize herself over the next day or so we could see a hurricane. Yqt1001 22:47, September 14, 2011 (UTC)

And with that, NHC has upgraded Maria to 65mph. Hurricane watch issued for Bermuda. We'll have to wait until 11pm to see what the NHC says about recon finding stronger winds than expected. Yqt1001 00:16, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Finally! Bout damn time. Surfers, grab your boards! All hope is not lost! Lol! Ryan, you mean Maria still has to go through Katia's SST wake. Katia's outflow is long gone because Katia is long gone. I believe the increased shear in the forecast is from an upper level low. Anyway, I don't have a lot to add to the previous discussion other than the models develop virtually nothing over the next week. I know that thing off Africa has popped up on the TWO but none of the model develop it anymore, not even the GFS which liked it this time yesterday. The way I see it, we may be lucky to get even one storm before next weekend (September 24) or have just one storm over the next two weeks. A developing La Nina would seem to favor an active late season, but there's certainly no sign of it now. Given that this season has been such an underperformer ACE wise, I'd be inclined to err on the low side. If we do reach the 20 storm mark, it'll probably be thanks to more weak, pissand storms. Late season is normally the time for those, notwithstanding the fact that that's pretty much been our entire season to this point, with just a couple of exceptions. I really can't see us all of a sudden breaking trend and rattling off long-lived hurricanes right and left. We may get a western Caribbean storm that finds its way into the Gulf and does something dangerous, but other than that, I just don't see it happening. I'm certainly not saying the season's over, but I just don't think our lackluster ACE is going to improve much. We'll see. -- SkyFury 02:11, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Maria now a hurricane finally AL, 14, 2011091518,, BEST, 0, 338N, 666W, 65, 987, HUAllanjeffs 18:53, September 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * We'll have to see what NHC says. I know they are the pickiest when upgrading a TS to a hurricane, as shown with Katia once as ATCF didn't even downgrade Katia the third time that it was a TS before it's peak. Anyways 70mph is the 3rd strongest storm this year (tied with Nate) so at least we are starting to see an upward trend in ACE's now because of the modestly stronger storms. Also Maria has made her closest approach to Bermuda. Yqt1001 19:06, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * But if we get two or three more short-lived POS storms in the rest of September, October, or November, then our ACE/storm goes down the drain again. Only Katia and Irene have become major hurricanes at this point in this season. As of now, this year is reminding me of 2007 in many ways, a bunch of shitty storms with one or two exeptions. This thing has lived unusually long for a TS anyways. Ryan1000 20:21, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah Maria tied Fay for longest living (that I know of) TS at the 2pm update, if Maria doesn't become a hurricane ever or at 5pm she will beat Fay. We'll see what happens at 5pm though. Yqt1001 20:43, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Maria
...MARIA BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... 75mph winds and 987mb pressure. Going 36mph northward pretty fast considering she has steadily intensified. Also hurricane watches issued for Newfoundland. Yqt1001 20:45, September 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * I've never saw it coming. 10Q.INVEST 23:20, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay! She finally did it! Look out Newfoundland! Yeah, I remember a while back seeing the models take it right over Newfoundland but I can't say I saw this coming. This just got interesting all of a sudden. -- SkyFury 23:46, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * 80mph winds at 11pm. Yqt1001 02:49, September 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I didn't think it would take Maria 10 days to become a hurricane, but, well, it finally became one now. Newfoundland may have to deal with some impacts but it's much smaller than Hurricane Igor was when it hit them at about this time last year, not to mention Maria has a forward movement of 43 mph, much faster than Igor had when it was hitting them. It'll be in and out in 2-3 hours. Still, this thing bears watching for the folks up there. Stay tuned. Yqt, one TS of 1913 went for 17 days(August 26 to September 12) without becoming a hurricane(!!). That storm still remains the longest-lived storm in recorded history that did NOT become a hurricane, and the record for longest time for a storm to reach hurricane strength still stands with Arlene of 1987. Ryan1000 04:27, September 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Correction: Dennis of 1984 holds the record for longest time to reach hurricane strength at 14 days. Arlene took 11. The best track for Arlene is bizarre, having a really long intial depression stage. They don't have the winds even reaching 20 knots until day three. I seriously doubt it was a tropical cyclone until at least that point. Even if you count the entire depression stage, Arlene would only match Dennis's record. Dennis is the true record holder in my book. Kudos on the 1913 pull though, that was a good one. Given the fact that it was in 1913, it's possible it did reach hurricane strength but if it did, it probably didn't stay there long. -- SkyFury 06:18, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

Maria made landfall with winds at 75mph, should be extratropical tonight. Yqt1001 19:06, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Eric, I exclude Dennis of 1981(correction yearwise) because it was a non-tropical remnant low for 3 of those days. What I meant was the longest time it took for a storm to reach hurricane strength while still a tropical cyclone. If it degenerates into a remnant low for part(or most) of the time, it doesn't count in my book. Arlene took 14.25 days to become a hurricane since it formed on August 8 and reached it on the 22nd, which yes is still the record. See this for verification. Other storms that took a long time to become hurricanes include Josephine of 1990 at 13.75 days, and Felix of 1989 and Irene of 2005, both at about 13 days. Anyways, Maria's shooting at more than 50 mph, so it'll be in and out of Newfoundland like lightning. Ryan1000 20:04, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yikes, that was a bad mistake. And I wrote that right after I got off the 1981 Unisys page *facepalm*. That aside, Dennis is usually cited as holding this record by news media and even the NHC (I believe this came up with Hurricane Lisa in 2004). Just like you believe the remnant stage shouldn't count, I don't believe Arlene was a tropical cyclone until August 10. Do you see some of those wind speeds? 10 knots, are you kidding me? That's not a tropical cyclone, that's a low pressure swirl completely devoid of deep convection. I've never seen even a remnant low have wind speeds that low. Therefore, I believe the actual gap was 12 days on the nose, not 14. -- SkyFury 02:27, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Well, the best track states that Arlene formed by then, but in my book, Dennis was technically active from August 7-13 and August 16-22. The 3-day gap is what keeps him from that kind of record, IMO. Anyways, Maria wasn't that bad, so i'd put a 5% chance of retirement because it did affect the lessers and Newfoundland, but not severely. If Arlene is excluded until it did reach, say 25 knots and Dennis while it was a tropical wave, then Josephine of 1990 holds the record at 13.75 days. Ryan1000 13:55, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone Maria
Good night, Maria! Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:23, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

The 3rd storm that is not an epic fail.10Q.INVEST 04:59, September 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * For me Lee was not an epic fail Allanjeffs 06:27, September 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Currently there are no death or damage reports, but it probrably wasn't an Igor for Newfoundland. Ryan1000 14:19, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Bay of Campeche
Some models are picking this up. 10L.NONAME 18:59, September 4, 2011 (UTC
 * Technically this doesn't exist yet. This will be a piece of energy off of Lee that will come down and regenerate. Yqt1001 20:10, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The said piece of energy has now split off and is going south to the BoC. Yqt1001 14:14, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS predicts this will hit Florida.10L.NONAME 15:12, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not anymore it doesn't. Stalls it right off the Mexican coast until it dies, which seems implausible to say the least. The ECMWF, however, does take it toward the eastern Gulf. The GFS and ECMWF both develop this, so it'll be interesting to see what happens. GFS forms it in about three days. -- SkyFury 05:45, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% now. Allanjeffs 12:29, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

30%, HHs will investigate this storm tomorrow. Yqt1001 18:12, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This one will probably be invested soon. Most of the models develop this and most of them essentially trap it in the Bay of Campeche, not moving it much at all. Very odd. -- SkyFury 18:38, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

This might be a re-Arlene, or if it keeps on stalling, it might be a re-Edouard(1984), and not signifigantly affect land at all, despite it's proxmitity to it. Ryan1000 20:56, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
And it's been invested (finally). Yqt1001 18:55, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * AMSRE 85GHzH pass identifying only sparse thunderstorm activity. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:48, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40% now. Allanjeffs 23:55, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 40%. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:56, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Props to Ryan on the Edouard reference. And I thought I was the only history guy around here ;). The majority of the models really do predict this thing to move very little during its lifetime. Some eventually drift it up toward the US Gulf Coast, some eventually drift it into Mexico. Some don't even take it anywhere at all, just spinning it in place until it dies. To be honest with you, I'm not sure what to make of that other than it could be very bad for those oil rigs down there. -- SkyFury 03:17, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70%. TD15 is coming, already. Yqt1001 19:11, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70%. TD15 is coming, already. Yqt1001 19:11, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

Hmm... "Hurricane Hunters just found an large area of westerly winds in the Gulf with flight level winds at 1000 feet of 58 mph and SFMR winds of 50 mph. This is likely to be Tropical Storm Nate at 5pm, though I'd like to see a vortex report from the plane before upgrading it, if I were working the NHC desk. Trivia question: when was the last time two storms got named on the same day? I don't know the answer, but 2005 would be a good year to look. -Jeff Masters" Looks like we'll see a jump from open wave to 50mph again! Also looks really likely we will skip TD15 and just have Nate. Wow this year is insane. Yqt1001 19:37, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Today is the 6th year anniversary of the naming of Ophelia in 2005. If this becomes Nate, we will only be one storm behind 2005. However, Philippe, 2005's 16th storm, didn't come until September 17. If we can get this year's Philippe before that date, we will already be jumping ahead of 2005's pace. The thing is most of this year's storms have been short-lived and weak; only 2 hurricanes thus far, out of 14 named storms(assuming this is Nate). That's only one 'cane for every 7 storms, and the ACE/storm is only a tad over 4. This year just doesn't know when to stop. We will certainly catch up to at least last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get 2005-like numbers put up at this rate. Not ACEwise, just storm-wise. Ryan1000 20:08, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">We have now Nate my friends we are moving very quick on the list AL, 15, 2011090718,, BEST, 0, 202N, 925W, 40, 1004, TSAllanjeffs 20:43, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Wow, that's amazing. Just gotta find that LLCC! But you're right, Yqt, this year has been insane. We've been only one storm behind 2005's pace for a while now. We're already ahead of 1995's pace and just this morning moved ahead of 1933's pace. This really is amazing. If we have a very reasonable six-storm September, three-storm October, and one-storm November - or similar combination - we will exhaust the list. In that case, a two-storm November (not uncommon) would bring us into Greek letters. We're already halfway to a six-storm September (assuming 96L becomes Nate) and we're barely a week into it. NHC's advisories and discussions are already starting to get that 2005 tone to them. "...And yet another tropical storm in the Atlantic..." -- SkyFury 20:51, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nate
Just a header on the NHC site, no information yet. But it's close enough! Yqt1001 21:02, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...TROPICAL STORM NATE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MEXICO... 45mph and 1004mb. Interesting to see that NHC is convinced this will go into Mexico even though it seems more logical to go to the Florida Panhandle...hmm. I guess they are professional though and I'm not even going to become a meteorologist, so what do I know? :P Yqt1001 21:04, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Expect nate to become a hurricane Allanjeffs 21:05, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) Here we go.10L.NONAME 21:10, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Today is incredible! We've had Maria and Nate in one day. Also, Maria and Nate are the second earliest 13th and 14th storms ever, behind just 2005's Maria and Nate. Anywho, I expect this storm to cause something in Mexico... Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:18, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic really has gone bonkers. As I mentioned in my last post, if we have a very reasonable six-storm September (which we're already halfway to barely a week into it), three-storm October, and one-storm November, we will exhaust the list. In that case, a two-storm November (not uncommon) will bring us into Greek letters. Insane. -- SkyFury 21:26, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic really has gone bonkers. As I mentioned in my last post, if we have a very reasonable six-storm September (which we're already halfway to barely a week into it), three-storm October, and one-storm November, we will exhaust the list. In that case, a two-storm November (not uncommon) will bring us into Greek letters. Insane. -- SkyFury 21:26, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * If we see we have 14 name stoms in the NATL 14 in the Western Pacific and only 7 in EasternPacific incredibel Allanjeffs 21:30, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * What an insane day. If we managed to spit out Phillepe before September 17 (10 days out), we will attain the record! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:43, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow, the tropics just don't know when to stop. We have just spat out storm after storm after storm rescently... We have had 10 named storms in the past month in the Atlantic basin. That averages to one storm every 3 days! Are you kidding me? We have hardly had such a frequency this long in the history of ever. In 2005 we had Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia in this time, which is 8 storms. And Eric, we had a 7-storm October in 2005(counting the unnamed subtropical storm), so given the rate we are getting storms now, we could easily get that many as well. I don't know if we will have over 28 named storms, but given the fact we have seen 14 right now, seeing 17 or 18 storms by the end of 2011 would be absolutely ridiculous. What a season. Amazing. Ryan1000 22:28, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2011 vs. 2005:
 * 2005


 * June - 2 storms
 * July - 5 storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 majors
 * August - 5 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major
 * September - 5 storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 majors
 * October - 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 majors
 * November - 3 storms, 1 hurricane
 * December - 1 storm


 * 2011


 * June - 1 storm
 * July - 3 storms
 * August - 7 storms, 2 hurricanes, 2 majors
 * September - 3 storms and counting
 * While we may never get close to the hurricane record of 2005, there is no reason why our named storms count shouldn't exhaust the list. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:55, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * New advisory puts Nate stationary in the bay. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:14, September 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hello everyone! I am back from my long time off this WIKI. Anyway, Nate is expected to become
 * a hurricane going into the Tampico area. Hurricane Owen OWEN2011 01:33, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hey Joshua! Nice to meet you. Anyways, yes, Nate is expected to be a hurricane. Not sure how he'll handle the shear though. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:12, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given Nate's slow movement in the Gulf, it could become a very strong storm there; a non-major hurricane isn't out of the question. AndCobraStrike, Katia didn't become a major, let alone a 'cane, until September. Irene was the only "August hurricane" we had. However, given the high number of storms we have had now, yet the lack of strong ones, there is a good chance we will catch 2005, but not so much ACEwise, rather storm-wise. If we can just get Philippe before September 17th, we're ahead of them. Ryan1000 03:16, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, what happened in 2005 will never be duplicated, not in our lifetimes. The seven-storm October was what set 2005 apart, in my opinion. For the rate of activity to actually accelerate in October, after all that had already happened...*shakes head*. It really was like a West Pacific season, which peaks later than ours. We exhausted the list on October 17 with perhaps the greatest tropical cyclone that this basin has ever seen: a classic, WPac-style super typhoon...in the Caribbean. It took 2005 139 days to exhaust the list. The only other season that could have done so, 1933 (whose 21 storms was the basis for the 21 names on our lists today) did not do so until November 15. We will never see another October like that, possibly ever again. That said, given the rate of activity we're having right now, it would not surprise me to see us exhaust the list...again. -- SkyFury 05:57, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph..already? Thats rather impressive considering the dry air (it seems not to be inhaling) and the LLC is still exposed... Yqt1001 19:11, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * ATCF has 60kts or 70mph already. Someone tell Nate that stalling in the BOC isn't good! Yqt1001 19:27, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, we can't know 2011 won't rival the number of storms 2005 did. As I mentioned earlier, Philippe, the earliest 16th storm ever, didn't become named until September 17. If we can get this year's Philippe before then, we will already be ahead of 2005. Rita got named on September 18, the day after Philippe, the 18th storm of 1933 came one day before Stan, which did on October 2, the unnamed storm of 2005 developed on October 4, Tammy on the 5th, Vince on the 9th, and Wilma on the 17th. Furthermore, Alpha became named on the 22nd, Beta on the 27th, Gamma on November 18th, Delta on November 23, Epsilon on November 29, and Zeta on December 30. 2005 only had a 5-storm September, Eric. What if we get an 8-storm September this year, like we did last year or in 2007 and 2002? If that happens, we will be at Sean before October even begins. And by then we need 10 storms from October-December to tie 2005's all-time record. Ryan1000 19:56, September 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * 70mph now expect to be a cat 2Allanjeffs 21:00, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * A category 3 is still possible at landfall. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:42, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nate isn't moving as fast as Maria is, but it sure is losing itself. It has really been disorganized over the past few advisories. The tail end of that cold front is still shearing this storm, and the outflow of Katia is shearing Maria, which is moving at over 20 mph. Let's hope Nate stays weak; the stronger this thing gets, the worse it will be for Mexico. Ryan1000 22:51, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Losing himself? Nate is looking better and better imo. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:56, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's looking better a bit, but the tail end of that cold front still has a hold over this thing a bit; that same front is also starting to recurve Katia. Nate is now stationary, but that will only make things worse. The longer it stays in the gulf, the more time it will have to strengthen. Karl last year got pretty nasty in the BOC, but it could have been stronger, because it was forecast to become a C4 as soon as it hit 120 mph. Had that happened, things could have gotten much worse. Anita of 1977 remains the strongest hurricane to form in the Gulf of Mexico, but it struck a rather unpopulated part of Mexico at full force. Why it became retired is beyond me, but let's hope Nate doesn't get that strong. Ryan1000 01:46, September 9, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan, Anita was retired because it obliterated several small fishing villages, left 25,000 people homeless and killed 11 people...and because Mexico asked for it to be retired, something we know they don't do often (see: Emily, Alex, Karl...). But you're right, Nate sure doesn't look the part of a 60 knot tropical storm on satellite. Unfortunately, we don't have the radar data that the NHC is looking at, but apparently its satellite appearance is deceiving. It's also unfortunate that it doesn't look like Texas is going to get any of this moisture. They sorely need it. As for 2005, Ryan, I'm not saying any of those things can't or won't happen, I'm just saying my gut feeling is that while this season will be very active, possibly one of the more active seasons on record, we won't approach the record totals of 2005. And I trust my gut. I am concerned that if this level of activity continues, our luck will eventually run out and an extremely destructive hurricane will affect the US. Maybe Irene was The One, but with a season this active, you usually don't just have one bad hurricane. I fear the US may not be done with the tropics this year. -- SkyFury 07:14, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Winds are down to 65mph for..I'm not sure, Nate is starting to look like a tiny Paula like hurricane. It's pretty sad to think that Nate's current/first peak of 70mph is the 3rd highest so far this year. And SkyFury, I must agree that the US will get hit by another storm this year. The pattern is going to favour a Charley/Dennis type storm in the middle of September and I think that will probably impact the US as atleast a hurricane, if not stronger. The pattern also seems favourable for a CV storm to hit the US, however it would probably have to go west to the spot where Irene formed and form there to actually hit the US. Yqt1001 12:51, September 9, 2011 (UTC)

Nate has fallen apart. 50mph winds and not really any convection left over the center. Looks like dry air finally got to him. Edouard all over again! Yqt1001 19:15, September 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now it actually looks like a subtropical storm (starting to). And aww, the forecast brings it west, less hope for Texan rain... CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:44, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, my point was something like, if Anita became retired, why did Hurricane Liza of the former year not? It obliterated entire communities in Baja from catastrophic flash floods and killed 600-950 people in Mexico yet wasn't retired. Anita only killed 11 people and was. Mexico has a very poor track record for retirement, but I won't argue about that here. Yqt and Eric, we don't know the U.S. will get hit with another monster storm this year(we certainly don't want that), but the conditions are in favor of it. NOAA rescently stated La Nina is back, so this season is far from over. Thus far, however, aside from Irene, we have gotten off better than we otherwise would have. This is because the Bermuda High is starting to dominate the central Atlantic and cold fronts are crossing the eastern seaboard more frequently, like it did at this time last year. However, because we are spitting out so many storms, I do agree chances are we will have another bad storm at some point this year; it just may not hit the U.S. though. Last year Mexico, Canada, and St. Lucia were the countries in question. In 2007 it was the Caribbean and Central America(particularly Nicaragua). Just because we have few U.S. landfalls does not mean we won't have bad hurricanes elsewhere. This season still bears very close watching. Just because we may not have a good chance of beating 2005 doesn't mean we won't do it. This season is ahead of the pace of every other season in history except 2005, and if we just get Philippe before September 17, we will be beating them. You can't ignore the facts. Although we may not get the same number of storms 2005 did, we have an extremely high chance of doing it at the pace we are right now, and although we may not have a 7-storm October or 8-storm September ect, you can't truly tell that won't happen. I know no one wants to have a bad season, but we have a very good chance of doing it(if we haven't already with Irene), and we still have a high chance for very destructive storms in the rest of September, October, and even in November. Ryan1000 00:39, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * the atlantic is producing stoms anywhere meanwhile the pacific is dead it might pull 3 storms more and that it si JMHOAllanjeffs 02:05, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * What the hell happened to Nate? Yikes. This think looked like it was primed to be another Karl but all of sudden it's just falling apart. They said something about dry air and there was a bunch neaby, but looking at the water vapor, it doesn't look like it's entraining any. The mass of dry air to the north has in fact weakened considerably. I don't know what's going on. As for everything else, for the record, none of the models really develop anything in the near future. September 17 is a week from tomorrow. We need two storms between now and then to out pace 2005. I just don't see that happening. I could see one, maybe. The GFS tries to develop something off Africa at the 100-hour mark, but it doesn't organize with any degree of haste. The ECMWF doesn't develop anything. NOGAPS, the Navy model, seems to, but not until at least 135 hours. So, for the middle of September in what has turned out to be a very active season, the near future sure looks awfully rosy, especially once Maria finally lifts out. -- SkyFury 03:23, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa. I said earlier Nate was losing himself, he re-organized when I said that and now he's a POS again. Now he could pull an Arlene at best, not a Karl or anything else bad. We could see some impact, but other than Nate, Katia is racing seaward at 46 mph while Maria may cause some rainfall, but nothing exceptionally severe, across the Virgins and PR tomorrow and Sunday. We may get a brief period of silence in the tropics, but it won't happen forever. I still wouldn't be surprised if at least we exhaust the list, perhaps go to Alpha and Beta. But we still can't rule anything out. Ryan1000 03:34, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update:Nate remains at 50 mph now. The thing about Nate is it has a very big circulation. Anything past 75 mph by now seems rather unlikely at this point, but watches are up just in case. I think it will be a re-Arlene, but hopefully flooding won't be extremely bad for the folks down in Mexico. Ryan1000 16:34, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nate gaining a powerful right arm, intensifying to 60 mph. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:24, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * 65mph Allanjeffs 21:04, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now we're starting to get somewhere. It's still possible Nate becomes a hurricane before landfall. A hurricane warning is out for Mexico. -- SkyFury 23:27, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Or so you thought. Nate weakened to 60 mph, and based on the sattelite imagery, it is really falling apart after making landfall in Mexico. So an Arlene is what happened after all, or hopefully not as severe. Ryan1000 13:37, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Aaand Nate has disintegrated on landfall, like Don of earlier this year. Never got to hurricane strength, but Nate is the 3rd strongest TC of the ATL season. Kinda odd when you think about it.. Yqt1001 19:32, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nate
Made landfall, pulled a Don. 11pm advisory will probably be its last. Yqt1001 00:27, September 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not suprised that happened. Nice tracking you, Nate. 10Q.INVEST 00:37, September 12, 2011 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nate
'''...NATE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... '''(11pm) Yqt1001 02:43, September 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This storm wasn't as promising to end the weak storm streak as I once thought. At one point Nate looked like it was going to be a major hurricane heading for South Padre and all it did was tap Mexico as a moderate tropical storm like Arlene did this June. Damage was probrably minimal, but it still did cause some impacts when it made landfall. Ryan1000 02:30, September 13, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Central Atlantic/West of Cape Verde Islands
This wave formed into a trough and has the possibility of dampening, mentioned on the TWO. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:40, September 4, 2011 (UTC) <p style="margin-left: 40px">Not yet actualy. The wind shear is taking a toll on it. 10L.NONAME 00:09, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * "AN EARLIER WIND OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 41041 SUGGESTED A LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N45W...EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. " Probably won't form anyways though. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:23, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

10% now, NHC doesn't think this will develop until later if it does develop at all. Yqt1001 18:11, September 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not recognized as an AOI anymore, over Virgin Islands. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:49, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Off of Africa
Just came off of Africa. Seems to have a mid level spin to it so it might be on the TWO soon. Probably will be overshadowed by 95L in the end though. Yqt1001 16:56, September 6, 2011 (UTC) AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 32W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA IS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE 24W TROPICAL WAVE. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:54, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Characterized as "well defined" by the NHC CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:58, September 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * now 10% Allanjeffs 18:12, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Gone off the NHC. Anyway, see my new poll of the week! Hurricane Owen OWEN2011

AOI: South West of Cape Verde
Some models like this, I think it has a pretty decent chance. It looks nice too. Likely going to follow a path similar to Helene and Gordon of 2006. Yqt1001 19:18, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * On the TWO now. 10%. Yqt1001 00:19, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone. Yqt1001 19:04, September 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Isn't this the 20% area on the TWO? The global models now develop not one but two storms near Cape Verde at around the 80 hour mark. Definately something to watch. -- SkyFury 05:25, September 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Do we actually have 3 AOI's at the same time near Africa? Geez. I think we could see some fighting between them due to their close proxmitity to one another, but hopefully all 3 will be fishes in the long run. Ryan1000 14:01, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South East of Cape Verde
This wave just came off of Africa, I'm not sure about the model support for this, but nonetheless it looks like a pretty reasonable candidate for development. Might be too close to the AOI noted above to become much though. Yqt1001 02:21, September 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * Neither of these waves(this one and the other AOI) are worth sh!t as of now. Also, the conditions ahead of them seem unfavorable in the long run, near the Caribbean, but they aren't as close to each other as 98 and 99L were earlier this year, although I can't say either will develop at this time. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 00:44, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Not sure why anyone hasnt posted the 98L and 99L headers yet... Oh and this is at 20%. Yqt1001 18:15, September 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30% now. Yqt1001 23:38, September 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * This invest may become Ophelia over the next few days, but the atmospheric conditions are only expected conducive for the next few days. After, that, when it reaches the Caribbean, the lingering wind shear may increase enough to recurve it, or at best, kill it(which I wouldn't see coming, even). I personally am not looking forward to seeing a catastrophic hurricane coming from this one, and Cape Verde season is starting to slowly close up as we speak. Ryan1000 02:07, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm still confused which disturbance is which, but if we're talking about the 30% area on the TWO then this is definately the one to watch over the next several days. The models are generally slow to develop this, but most of them do and most of them bring it into the Caribbean, which is concerning. Again, none of the models make this particularly strong, but virtually all of them make something of it and bring it into the Caribbean where anything can happen. Definately need to keep an eye on this. -- SkyFury 05:07, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * 60% my friends code redAllanjeffs 07:57, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * The shear near the lessers is still lingering, but the ULL that was producing that shear is lifting out, which will give this storm more time to strengthen. This storm is reminding me a bit of Georges's precursor wave, but I don't think Ophelia will get that powerful. Still, this thing definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 10:46, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 60%. Ophelia is on her way after a 6-year wait. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:34, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * This wave is looking rather ragged and broad, but it has plenty of time to organize itself until it interacts with land or wind shear. Ryan1000 20:01, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

Let's not count our chickens just yet. I've seen a few 60s bust before, including at least one this season. Virtually all the models develop it in the near term to around 40-50 knots but then weaken it back to a depression by 72 hours. That tells me they're thinking the shear is going to increase significantly around that time. However, by 96 hours, most of them restrengthen it like gangbusters. And most of them take it into the Caribbean. This could get interesting. Interestingly, though, the global models (the GFS and ECMWF) both keep it weak and kill it in the Caribbean. I'm not sure why that is. GFDL is the most aggressive and has it as a strengthening tropical storm approaching Jamaica in 126 hours. HWRF is much slower and weaker, having it just barely reaching the Windwards by 126 hours, but does have it reorganizing by then. Global Models vs Dynamical Models, Round 992 *ding* -- SkyFury 20:12, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * Oof topic but you see that in the PDF of tropical storm Cindy she got bump to 70mph happy to see that they are doing it more early Allanjeffs 20:40, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Allan: We have a section for post season changes already.
 * The SHIPS intensity model only calls for 98L to peak at 42 knots at day 5, let alone day two, so it is possible this could be a Gaston, briefly be a TS, then die, and threaten to regenerate but not do anything. We can't be certain of anything, and although we have a chance of seeing a bad storm out of this wave, I won't gurantee it yet. We'll have to wait and see what mother nature really does. Ryan1000 21:35, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

70%. I'm thinking we will get a TD once ASCAT passes over and finds a LLC. Yqt1001 11:12, September 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. Yqt1001 17:48, September 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has a good spin to it, but it's not that defined. Like the other invest in the EPAC better.10Q.INVEST 21:15, September 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are still rather unenthusiastic about this wave, and are calling for it to head north of the lessers and out to sea... again, except for GFDL, which takes this to Nicaragua in the long run. This storm is gonna be a tough one to predict, and it might just die if the shear picks up in the long run. Ryan1000 23:46, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * I don´t what the nhc is waiting tell me if this is not a reason to upgrade it look at the windsat if we have Maria that for me didn´t have a closed circulation for a few hours Allanjeffs 00:05, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * ATCF says that 98L has 35kts winds, but isn't organized enough to be a TS. TS Ophelia is coming...sometime. Yqt1001 01:17, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Ophelia should be here at 11pm: AL, 16, 2011092100,, BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M, Yqt1001 02:30, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Yeah i knew it yeah!!yeah!!!! our 15 name storm will see were she go Allanjeffs 02:39, September 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Please welcome Ophelia, Katia's niece and Maria's little sis. --88.102.101.245 06:16, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ophelia
It's here! Winds of 40mph, pressure at 1006mb. Currently forecast to take the path of Irene through the Caribbean, though I'm sure that will change. Currently forecast to peak at 50mph winds though. Yqt1001 02:48, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yqt, Ophelia looks like it'll be a re-Maria, not exactly an Irene. Ophelia is only forecast to be a minor TS(53 kts by SHIPS) over the next 5 days. The atmospheric conditions aren't quite the same as they were with Irene with this storm, but hopefully it will follow Maria's footsteps and stay out to sea. I'd put the peak possible strength of Ophelia at where Maria peaked, but by that time far out to sea. Ryan1000 03:00, September 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I know, I'm just saying that the NHC track is similar to Irene. I never said that this will be a re-Irene, but who knows, some models show a direct path through the Caribbean and some say that Ophelia will turn out to sea tomorrow. Yqt1001 03:16, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well this is interesting. Can't say I had Ophelia coming this soon. Looks pretty terrible right now, but it's got a nice little window to strengthen over the next 36-48 hours. After that however...*whisles*...it starts looking UGLY shear wise. Maria survived its test in about the same part of the Atlantic. I have a feeling Ophelia won't be so lucky. Shear has been a big problem all season, the comparisons with 2007 are accurate IMO, I don't see that changing as we go through the last two months of the season. Not only do I think the US has little to fear from Ophelia, I think it'll struggle to last beyond five days. -- SkyFury 05:42, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * 45mh winds. Yqt1001 12:02, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph winds! Yqt1001 18:58, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The center isn't near that convection though, so that'll probrably be her peak, if not 65-70 mph, but no hurricane is coming from her IMO. That AOI that's still near 0% is near the leewards, producing some showers and may shear Ophelia up as it heads towards it. Even if we get another big storm this year in October, it won't change the ACE/storm that much because we had so many failures this year. Ryan1000 20:24, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * At the end of the 5 - day forecast, she should be at 40 MPH. 10Q.INVEST 20:26, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, she's probrably going to be dead by then, or close to dead. Virtually all of the models either barely keep Ophelia alive by day 5 or have it still weakening as it heads into heavier shear by day 5. GFDL somehow thinks she'll hit 150 mph by that time, but that's just too unlikely to consider IMO. Ryan1000 20:56, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * We'll see what happens. She's at 65mph now. Yqt1001 12:14, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, I initially had the same opinion, but now it looks like conditions will be getting more favorable by 72 hours as this upper level low is expected to lift out. Assuming she survives this initial bout of shear, and she's doing pretty well so far, she could yet become a hurricane by 120-130 hours. -- SkyFury 17:50, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * By that time Ophelia will be running into the trough off of the eastern seaboard, and Ophelia still can't get it's center colocated with that convection. As long as that stays, it won't become anything big. Personally, Hilary will be grabbing my attention more than this storm by tomorrow. Ryan1000 19:50, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * The storm activity is dying now...might see the last advisory.10Q.INVEST 00:02, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nah, not until it is extratropical. Naked swirls still get advisories, and the LCC isn't as far from the convection as Maria's was when she was in this area. Yqt1001 00:10, September 23, 2011 (UTC)

Shear is getting to it...50mph winds now. "AS FAR AS INTENSITY...OPHELIA HAS A TOUGH ROAD AHEAD OF IT...AND THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY WEAKENING DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH OPHELIA...REMAINING ABOUT 600 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE STORM AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. YOU WOULD THINK THAT OPHELIA WOULD NOT SURVIVE AN ENVIRONMENT LIKE THIS...BUT IT IS OFTEN HARD TO TELL IF SYSTEMS LIKE THIS WILL HANG BY A THREAD DESPITE THE CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO." Yqt1001 02:45, September 23, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yeah, Ophelia's screwed. I doubt she'll make it through the weekend. That fricking low is going to actually follow the storm like a cancer for three days. That's a death sentence. This really has been a bizarre year in the tropics. The Atlantic has had a ton of storms, 15 already, but only three hurricanes. The East Pacific meanwhile, has had only eight storms, but all but one of them has reached hurricane strength. Incredible. The TUTT is incredibly strong this year and shear is roaring across the Caribbean. Now, as has been mentioned, a strong monsoon trough could set up a potentially scary scenario in the western Caribbean in October, but that's just speculation at this point. And given the shear conditions, I wouldn't bet on anything. I think Irene was our big one this year. It was certainly a storm I'll never forget. -- SkyFury 05:29, September 23, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hey guys its me OWEN2011. I am made a new username HurricaneOwen99 on Wikipedia but somehow I can't use that to get onto here. 68.200.20.27 15:44, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sorry Owen, not sure what you can do. Anyways, 60mph surface winds found by recon in Ophelia. Ophelia is a perfect example of a freak of nature, she's holding together well in face of shear... Yqt1001 20:11, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * That won't happen long. This thing was nothing but a big f**kng disappointment. I actually thought I could see something out of Ophelia and this is what I see? A storm getting torn to shreds like almost everything else this season has been. There was a rescent flare up of convection, but it's only temporary, and Ophelia will likely die tomorrow. Ryan1000 20:29, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC disagrees with you Ryan. They weaken Ophelia to 40kts though. Yqt1001 21:06, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * They still keep it as a strong tropical storm, but in the face of this shear, that feat won't last forever, and it will probrably be weakened greatly further down the road, or stay at this intensity until it turns extratropical. It is certainly something worth watching. Ryan1000 02:06, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * EASY COME...EASY GO. AFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...

OPHELIA NOW APPEARS TO BE ON A WEAKENING TREND. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM MEASURED A MAXIMUM 925-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 47 KT AND HAS YET TO MEASURE ANY TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM THE SFMR. NHC agrees with you, Ryan. 10Q.INVEST 02:57, September 24, 2011 (UTC) <p style="margin-left: 40px">I will say, Ophelia's been a plucky little storm. 25 knots of shear is no fun, but she's held together nicely. And if it continues to hold up, it may get a chance to strengthen in a few days. -- SkyFury 08:32, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Not for long. 10Q.INVEST 03:36, September 25, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Almost gone.10Q.INVEST 17:17, September 25, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">GoneAL, 16, 2011092518,, BEST, 0, 184N, 606W, 30, 1012, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 125, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M, but with a chance of regeneration Allanjeffs 19:40, September 25, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Ophelia
Shear ripped her LLC apart. Probably will redevelop in 2 days when shear lessens. Yqt1001 20:40, September 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Some models take it to major hurricane strength after it redevelops.10Q.INVEST 20:42, September 25, 2011 (UTC)

Nah, she's dead. It will take some time for her to recover from that damage, but I'd be surprised if she recovers at all. What a disappointment. Ryan1000 22:06, September 25, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Is anyone seriously surprised though? It's amazing that Ophelia lasted this long. (It's possible she didn't. We'll have to wait and see what they find in post-analysis) -- SkyFury 22:45, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * First TWO, 20%. Yqt1001 23:44, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I highly doubt Ophelia will regenerate because the upper-level winds are just too strong for this thing to redevelop. It may come back to us, but I won't count on it. Ryan1000 14:02, September 26, 2011 (UTC)

30% now. Yqt1001 19:07, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jump to 60%. Yqt1001 23:38, September 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * we may have ophelia tomorrow morning or until recon get to her she may be ahurricane after all Allanjeffs 00:14, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, didn't see that coming. Don't jump on her just yet, she'll probrably catch that trough and turn north past the east coast and out to sea. Still, I never thought this would be a re-Emily. Ryan1000 03:13, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily never really had a defined LLC, struggled and never went past 50mph. This storm actually got to 65mph and although she struggled at her peak, she didn't look like she was doing horrible. Yqt1001 03:21, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Boy, what a difference a couple of days makes. Before Ophelia degenerated, most of the models had it dying a horrible death never to return again. Now, all of a sudden, all the major models not only redevelop it but have it reaching substantial intensity. Both the GFDL and HWRF bring it to at least 90 knots. The GFDL even briefly makes it a major hurricane. This is a rather remarkable about face from the model forecasts. It seems that the upper level low that was dogging Ophelia is no longer. Also, most of the models take this very near Bermuda, possibly as a hurricane. This has all of a sudden gotten really interesting. -- SkyFury 07:12, September 27, 2011 (UTC) (This was me. Must've logged me off. -- SkyFury 18:32, September 27, 2011 (UTC))
 * 80%. They are waiting for recon to confirm a LLC. Yqt1001 12:04, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90% now. Advisories will probably be reinitiated at 5pm. -- SkyFury 18:32, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * They will be later today, but it will most likely recurve northward and affect possibly Bermuda before turning east out to sea. Ryan1000 19:52, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ophelia
It's back.10Q.INVEST 20:45, September 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now forecast to become the 4 hurricane of the seasonAllanjeffs 20:49, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The O storms have always been the oddest storms to track. (Olga 01, Ophelia 05, Olga 07, Ophelia 11 etc..) Yqt1001 21:32, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is Maria 2.0. But unlike Maria, Ophelia might be a threat to Bemuda, but even as a C1, I wouldn't expect anything worse than an Igor or a Florence, but not a Fabian. Ryan1000 23:07, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ophelia (2nd time)
50mph winds found by recon. Yqt1001 19:22, September 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * AL, 16, 2011092900,, BEST, 0, 192N, 605W, 50, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,l now stronger meanwile hilary has weaken to minimal hurricane and philippe up to 45mphAllanjeffs 00:50, September 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Looks like ophelia give a big punch of rain to dominica producing landslides and mudslides Allanjeffs 03:00, September 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * near hurricane strength AL, 16, 2011092912,, BEST, 0, 205N, 616W, 60, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, MAllanjeffs 12:39, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Look at Ophelia! Wow, that is awesome! She has an eye! We all thought she was dead a couple of days ago and now look at her, she's beautiful. Go girl! *proud papa voice* Our little Ophelia is growing up...*tear* -- SkyFury 17:35, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

AL, 16, 2011092918,, BEST, 0, 209N, 621W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M, All we need is NHC confirmation at 5pm and we have Hurricane Ophelia! Yqt1001 19:00, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Things are about to get interesting; in the wake of all of these epic fails, we have a hurricane in the making in NAtl. It won't affect Bermuda signifigantly, and Ophelia will be non-tropical when it affects Newfoundland in the long run. Ryan1000 20:07, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Ophelia
16-4-2! ...OPHELIA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... Amazing since Ophelia is currently under a decent amount of shear and the NHC wasn't expecting a hurricane until tomorrow when the shear lessens. TS warnings up for Bermuda. Yqt1001 20:38, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I wasn't surprised, she was getting better organized by the minute, and now she's going to be heading northward, passing east of Bermuda, and in 2-3 days, she will make her way into Newfoundland as an extratropical cyclone. Ryan1000 20:56, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">OPHELIA INTENSIFYING''.. now 80 mph and strenghteningAllanjeffs 23:59, September 29, 2011 (UTC)''

I think she'll intensify a little as she heads northward; i'd put the maximum possible peak strength at 100 mph, and it would have to hit Bermuda at that strength to have any chance of retirement, because as of now, it looks like she'll head northward, then eastward, and eventually affect Newfoundland as a non-tropical storm. I have to say, this was impressive. It died, then reformed, and now it's our 4th hurricane. Philippe is stubbornly hanging on, but it's fate will be sealed in ~2 days. Ryan1000 00:05, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ophelia is just owning that shear and is now 85mph (third strongest storm this year). NHC says 105mph! Yqt1001 02:56, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC still keeps it away from Bermuda, but it isn't out of the question they could get hit; it's just that it might only temporarily be resisting the shear. The NHC takes her interacting with some shear as she heads northward into some heavier shear and colder waters, but I wouldn't be surprised if she becomes a two. However, she should stay below major hurricane strength overall. Ryan1000 03:26, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree, Cat 2 makes sense. I don't see Ophelia becoming a major hurricane. Do note, however, that she's got a little anticyclone over her now. That should protect her from feeling too much shear in the near term. It remains unclear whether Ophelia will still be tropical by the time it affects Newfoundland. My guess is probably not. It'll probably be experiencing much stronger shear by that time, as it will have moved out from under the upper level ridge, and that'll probably expedite extratropical transition. However, it may not matter from a damage standpoint whether the storm is tropical or not. But I don't expect Newfoundland to take much of a hit from this. -- SkyFury 07:25, September 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * she is now a cat 2 with 105mph and strenghteningAllanjeffs 11:57, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's a tiny Cat. 2 hurricane.10Q.INVEST 12:04, September 30, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Over Nigeria
3 AOIs today. The season is kicking back into gear. This is the "caboose" of the "African wave train" today. I'm only posting it as an AOI because of the huge amount of model support this has. Should come off of Africa in 2 days and some models have this developing nearly instantly and becoming a major hurricane (kinda Fred 2009-esque). We'll see what happens with this wave. Yqt1001 02:27, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I hope that this and the new AOI become short-lived and weak storms just like almost everyone else this season spat out, but we can't let our guard down yet. The atmospheric conditions in the central Atlantic are somewhat favorable for development(though Maria and Katia stole all of the warm waters), and the troughs and Bermuda High are still recurving every storm out to sea. If this keeps up, then Irene will remain the only bad storm through this entire season. =) Ryan1000 04:03, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I'm thinking this might become a Julia-like hurricane.10Q.INVEST 23:26, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">10% now may be ophelia in the next couple of days Allanjeffs 18:17, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">20% now and invest 97L tell me if this one is the correct pleaseAllanjeffs 00:01, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Yes, Nate was 96L, so (Ophelia) must be 97L if this becomes invested. Ryan1000 00:09, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

97L.INVEST

 * Its already invest invest_al972011.invest my question was really if this was the correct AOI but thanks a lot Allanjeffs 00:13, September 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Are we seriously talking about something over Nigeria? -- SkyFury 05:20, September 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * No its already out of land and its at 30% nowAllanjeffs 06:11, September 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it's a hurricane but it has to be a fish storm.10Q.INVEST 17:42, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Off of the TWO now. Yqt1001 18:14, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
10% right now, this split off of 98L. Yqt1001 18:14, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This one is invested already? Really? This one isn't going to do anything. None of the models develop this and the shear is really bad around it right now. The models do, however, develop something behind it and 98L, taking it out to sea to die though. -- SkyFury 05:12, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * 99L is off the TWO. Yqt1001 17:42, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back..near 0%. Yqt1001 23:38, September 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * To compare this to 98L, this thing is tiny!10Q.INVEST 02:02, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has a LLCC, but the storm activity is way off from center.10Q.INVEST 20:28, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cape Verde
10%. Yqt1001 13:09, September 23, 2011 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. The CV season isn't over yet! And some models bring this to category 2 strength while heading northward on a path like Lisa of last year. Yqt1001 19:06, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it will become a major hurricane and a fishie at the same time.10Q.INVEST 19:51, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * 50%! Yqt1001 23:44, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I see a Lisa (2010)-like storm from this invest. Maybe we're about to witness our sixth 'P' named storm ever? Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:33, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ophelia is a ways away from this invest, but this thing will be heading northward into colder waters anyways, following a similar path to, say Fred of 2009, but nowhere close to the same intensity. The season is starting to wrap up by now, and since it's late September, it's now highly unlikely we will see any long-lasting major hurricanes here on out. We have a new AOI north of the Bahamas, but it will be heading northward into colder waters anyways. Ryan1000 02:03, September 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * More than likely AndrewAllanjeffs 02:02, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

80%! TD17 is likely to form later today. This is by far the fastest developing non-frontal/non-BOC wave this year. Yqt1001 05:44, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Just like the models called for, here it is, following behind Ophelia. This one seemed to take everybody by surprise, and it did come on pretty fast. I don't think this came on the TWO until early Thursday. NHC doesn't even have a floater on it yet. The dynamical models, GFDL and HWRF, are both in pretty good agreement on taking it roughly north and intensifying it to a Category 1 hurricane out over the open Atlantic. The global models, meanwhile, look clueless. The GFS doesn't even see it at all while the ECMWF kills it immediately. Given the current conditions, however, strengthening seems likely at least in the short term. We'll see if it does in fact reach hurricane strength. I hope so. This has been such a lackluster season from a power standpoint. Ryan, I would caution you that while the Cape Verde season may be winding down, the season as a whole is far from over. I'll still be interested to see if we have an active monsoon trough over the Caribbean in October. That has the potential to produce some ugly storms. -- SkyFury 08:45, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seventeen
Yep. It's coming. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:54, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">...Out to sea. It may become a strong TS, but it's going to be recurved pretty soon(as it almost always does at this time of year) signifigantly limit the chances of this storm affecting land as it heads northwest. Anyhow, it bears watching. Ryan1000 12:58, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Poised to become Philippe. Can anyone else tell me how to get my username HurricaneOwen99 from wikipedia to here that would be fantastic! 97.76.107.234 18:34, September 24, 2011 (UTC) aka OWEN2011

You could make a new account, or rename yours(if you can). This storm is poised to be a fish, but although the season itself is far from over, at the rate we are going, we would need a miracle to have a very strong storm in the face of all this shear. We only had 3 hurricanes out of, what will likely be 17 by tomorrow, storms. The ACE this year is just pathetic for a season with so many storms, and our luck this year has just been so high. Out of all of the (17) storms this year, only Irene was exceptionally bad among them, and only Irene and Katia became major hurricanes. Eric, I agree 2011 is not over, but unless atmospheric conditions change at some point in the next 2-3 weeks, we won't get anything bad. Maybe Irene was the chosen one after all. Ryan1000 18:54, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The song remains the same on this one. The dynamical models continue to make this a hurricane. The GFDL actually brings it up to 90 knots. I personally think the HWRF solution is more likely, taking it up to about 75 knots. The global models, meanwhile remain very unenthusiastic. I think the NHC is keeping the forecast below hurricane strength out of respect for those models. -- SkyFury 19:32, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, NHC says that their intensity forecast is a conservative blend of all models. I think a hurricane is likely from this, we'll see what happens though. ATCF has Phillipe at 5pm too, so we'll see about that also. Yqt1001 19:36, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I tried making an account, but it says "Sorry, we are unable to register you at this time". 108.9.68.10 20:41, September 24, 2011 (UTC) aka OWEN2011


 * Now is ts PhilippeAllanjeffs 20:58, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Philippe
Here we go! ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... 40mph winds, still 1006mb. Yqt1001 20:57, September 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * And Philippe is born. Hurricane Owen 97.76.107.234 21:01, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Forecast shows a hurricane in 2 days. Yqt1001 21:03, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The sixth 'P' named storm on record (and the second earliest sixteenth storm) has been christined. We currently tie 1936, 2003, and 2008 for the seventh most active season ever, behind '05, 1933, 1887, '95, 2010, and 1969. Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:12, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be surprised if Philippe doesn't become a hurricane, but it's smaller than Ophelia and it's northwest movement could take it into unfavorable conditions as soon as tomorrow. But we'll see. We could use a 'cane or two after all the epic fails we had, but the atmosphere in ATL, despite being able to let all these storms form, won't let them strengthen too much. And Philippe looks like it could follow Lisa of last year, or be a much weaker form of Fred or Julia. It'll probrably be a fishie either way. Ryan1000 23:57, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Andrew, I'm going to assume the typo was supposed to be 2010 right? I think we have already set the record for the most piece of shit storms in a season. This season needs five more storms to run the table. Still possible but not likely. The real story of this season will be Irene, first and foremost, and the near-complete power outage. We've had 16 storms, but all but two of them have struggled to intensify. Also of note, there has not been a major hurricane in the Caribbean Sea since Paloma, November 9, 2008. That's quite a drought. We did have three Category 2s in the Caribbean last October, but Paloma was the most recent major in the Caribbean. That said, the current drought is nothing compared to the six year drought to begin the 1990's (Hugo '89-Roxanne '95). However, it really is a head-scratcher given the active cycle we're on now. Hurricane Georges in 1998 broke a similar drought (there were just four Caribbean majors in the entire decade of the 1990s. There were that many in 2005 alone). -- SkyFury 05:18, September 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * I did mean 2010.
 * (That was me BTW) Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:55, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * If this season keeps on going on at the dead rate we have now, it will also be the first season since 2006 to not have a hurricane in the GOM. And during a a La Nina year too. That's just downright weird. Most of the storms this year have been forming far out to sea and dissipating far out to sea. None of them have made it to the Caribbean sea as signifigant hurricanes, let alone threatening storms(unless you cont Irene, which, though not passing through the Caribbean sea, did smack the Bahamas pretty good). I think it's just about fair to say Ophelia is dead, or will be by tomorrow, and Philippe is just turning out to be another disappointing storm. Ryan1000 17:38, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe the models aren't crazy for having a hurricane coming from this...wind jump to 60mph. Yqt1001 20:45, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * If there are no hurricanes in the GOM this year, that would be the first time since 2001 that that happened in a non-El Nino year. The La Nina they're talking about right now is formative and expected to be weak. But still. We've had just three hurricanes this year. That is the fewest total by this point in the season in a non-El Nino year since 1984. This is also tied for the second fewest total by this point, period, since 1994 (2009 had just two by this point). Of all the seasons that had at least 16 storms, not one of them had fewer than seven hurricanes (1936, 2003). And of the six seasons that had at least 17 storms, none of them had fewer than ten hurricanes (1933) with an average of 11.8. We'd need a historic October to come even close to those numbers. The average peak intensity of storms so far this year (excluding Philippe) is 59 knots. Compare that to 2005, which had an average peak of 76.8. 1933 is the only season with at least 16 storms that averaged less than 70 knots (69.3). The record, in case anyone's curious, belongs to 1950, which averaged a staggering 100.4 knots. It's the only season with at least ten known storms to hit triple digits. 2011 may set a record in the other direction. -- SkyFury 01:34, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this year is going towards record low average windspeed. We'd need a miracle of an October/November to turn that around, and at the rate this season is gone, I have a hard time seeing that hapening. Eric, in my book, 1961 holds the record in question for highest average windspeed at 101.5 knots, because as far as i'm concerned, Inga was the same storm as Simone which was the same storm as Hattie(aka Inga was the same storm as Hattie IMO). This year's EPac season is heading in the other direction though. We were only forecast to have 1 to 3 majors at the start of the year, but we already have 4 C4 storms, and the knot per storm average this year is 97.5 in EPac which, if this keeps up, will be an all-time record there. If we get one more C4 in October, then it will be over 100. The ACE/storm this year is already over 9 in EPac, and of all the seasons since 1995 to now in EPac, only 1995 itself has a higher ACE/storm than this year, with 10. 1992, 1993, and 1990 also got a pretty big number too. Ryan1000 04:27, September 26, 2011 (UTC)

Philippe is having a hard time strengthening...60mph still, no longer supposed to become a hurricane. How many times have we seen this this year..? I think this is the 3rd time. Yqt1001 19:06, September 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * At least four times. Aside Philippe it was the same with Ophelia, Nate, and even Maria. When she became a hurricane that was much much later than expected. Maybe a couple of the first six tropical storms hat at one time hurricane forces winds in their forecasts as well but I don't remember. --88.102.101.245 06:20, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, I have 1961's average at 97.7, good for second place, check your numbers again. It was the unnamed, 35 knot tropical storm that killed it. Take that one storm out and the average jumps to a ridiculous 104. 1950 is the only one I've found that hit the century mark. That's an increadible feat. The greatest tropical cyclone season in world history, 1997 WPac, averaged 95 knots through 31 storms! Conversely, the post-1950 record low in the Atlantic was set by 1997 at 56.2. 1987 was the only other season to average below 60 (59.3). The lowest non-El Nino year was 1984 at 61.25. We need help to reach that. The more I look at these numbers, the more bizarre this season seems. -- SkyFury 08:37, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, you didn't read my last post right. In the best track, it states tropical storm Inga was a seperate storm in the season, but in my book, Inga was the third name of Hurricane Hattie when it crossed into the east Pacific and became Simone, then recrossed into the BOC and became Inga. So the total number of storms in 1961 was 10, not 11, and, excluding Inga, the total sum of knots of all of the storms in the season was 1015, divided by 10 is 101.5, as I said above. The best track doesn't state Inga was the same storm as Hattie, but in my book, it is. That's why 1961 is the record holder to me. Ryan1000 11:01, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Simone degenerated into a remnant low before reforming into Inga in the Bay of Campeche. The connection between Simone and Inga is somewhat tenuous and hotly debated but Simone did degenerate, so that's why I still consider it a seperate storm even though Hattie-Simone at least contributed to its formation, similar to TD-11E and Hermine last year and TD9 and Katrina in 2005. If you exclude both TS6, which barely made it to tropical storm intensity, and Inga, 1961's average would jump to an unbelievable 109! Wow! -- SkyFury 18:42, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, back to Philippe. He doesn't look like a sane storm this evening. ---88.102.101.245 19:11, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

Poor Philippe is a naked swirl with the convection very far to the east of his LLC. Yqt1001 19:11, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yet another disappointment... only 45 mph winds and weakening as we speak. IMO 1961 is the record-keeper, and nothing can change that. And Ophelia returns yet again LATER THIS AFTERNOON. It has an outside chance of becoming a hurricane as it heads northward towards Bermuda then out to sea, but it will do anything to hold on. If I had to nickname this storm, it would be "Philippe the phailure". Ryan1000 19:50, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">now again at 45mph what is left of him should be watch careful because he moving west instead of north Allanjeffs 00:49, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Looks better than ever.10Q.INVEST 02:01, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Never understimate a storm Ryan you have do it with Maria and Ophelia Philippecan give you surprises also now that it is strenghtening and hilary is now a TSAllanjeffs 03:03, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph in the "conservative forecast" (as the NHC calls it. Atleast they are being honest :P). They have Philippe weakening rapidly in the face of Ophelia's outflow though. Yqt1001 03:16, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hear a theme song coming on for this storm: "Ah ah ah ah, stayin' alive, stayin alive, ah ah ah ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive, ah ah ah ah, stayin' aliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiive..." *starts dancing* -- SkyFury 17:39, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't know how this thing is keeping itself alive in the face of the shear it's in(honestly, Philippe should have died 2 days earlier when it was completely devoid of convection), but no matter what happens overall, it should die out 2 or so days from now, without becoming a hurricane and staying well out to sea. Ophelia all of a sudden has gotten interesting though, perhaps it could hit Newfoundland, after Maria. Ryan1000 20:03, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it become a hurricane.10Q.INVEST 20:05, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Philippe is no longer expected to dissipate in the next 5 days. Might have a chance of affecting land if it does indeed go west like models show. Yqt1001 20:45, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm still not entirely confident that will happen though, because there still is a lot of shear northwest of Philippe(in the direction it's heading), and if it keeps up that northwest pace for the next day or so, it will eventually run into some of the outflow of Ophelia, if the shear north of him doesn't get him. Look at the sattelite imagery. It's gradually becoming more elongated and weakened. Ophelia is also under some shear which will keep her in check from here on out. October is just around the corner, so the environment in the open Atlantic is getting less and less favorable for development. I'm not exactly saying Philippe will be a failure, but the odds aren't exactly in favor of seeing a doomsday future from this storm either, and i'm not looking forward to that from Philippe, let alone Ophelia. Still, October is certainly no month to be neglected. Stay tuned.Ryan1000 00:46, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * New rainbands...and new convection.10Q.INVEST 02:24, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * What? Philippe isn't developing new convection at all. Last I checked he's getting torn apart, as I said above. I guess his fate is closing in. Ryan1000 03:26, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * That was only for a short time, now he's being pulled apart again.10Q.INVEST 12:06, September 30, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over Bahamas
10%. Yqt1001 23:44, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% now. Yqt1001

91L.INVEST
Invested. Yqt1001 15:14, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30% chance. Yqt1001 17:47, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * If it develops, this would become a Bret-like storm.10Q.INVEST 18:36, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Supposing TD17 becomes a tropical storm first, this would be Rina. I also feel this will be the last system to form in September. 108.9.68.10 18:41, September 24, 2011 (UTC) aka OWEN2011
 * Whoa, we're back into gear now. We have Ophelia(though it's going to be dying in the next, say 4 days), Philippe out of 17(which will be short-lived as well) and now possibly Rina? Geez. Assuming that happens, we're right behind 2005 in numbers. This year has been spitting out so many named storms but so few of them have been strong. This storm could cause some high surf on the eastern seaboard, but direct impacts should be kept to a minimum. Ryan1000 18:54, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you want to call this "back in gear." For this season I suppose it is. The GFDL and HWRF both take this up the US east coast as a borderline depression/tropical storm. However, as with TD17, the global models are much less enthusiastic. GFS makes it maybe a depression, maybe, and the ECMWF doesn't do anything with it at all. We'll see. This one has a pretty tight window to strengthen before shear picks up in about 36-48 hours. -- SkyFury 20:05, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It will be the second earliest "R" storm if it does develop, but it won't live long even if (Rina) does develop. Ryan1000 23:57, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20% now. Yqt1001 00:03, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * It doesn't look like this one is going to develop. It's getting absorbed into a frontal system. I'd be very surprised if anything comes of this. Looks like Rina will have to wait. -- SkyFury 04:42, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's gone. Ryan1000 17:44, September 25, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Azores
Out there in a couple of days. Waiting to develop and models do have this. I'm not sure if it's going to be tropical, but it's worth mentioning.10Q.INVEST 18:03, September 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Likely to become subtropical after looking at theta - e and wind shear for GFS.10Q.INVEST 19:10, September 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Where are you getting all this GFS data? I only have the model runs from FSU. -- SkyFury 22:48, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * They are the model runs from FSU. Isn't that enough?
 * See here
 * 10Q.INVEST 23:33, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * After looking at a few model runs...CMC and Nogaps have Philippe strengthening up near Azores in about 6-7 days while GFS and ECMW have both Phillipe and this storm up here at the same time in about 6-7 days. Interesting. Yqt1001 23:44, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * CMC and NOGAPS are terrible models (no offense, people who control it). Hopefully Rina would form here.10Q.INVEST 02:01, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * They aren't horrible models. They just aren't meant for tropical cyclones. CMC however, has a bias against the US and likes to blow up storms heading there. But that is a natural Canadian bias. :P Yqt1001 02:17, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * If it forms, it's going to be a Andrea - like storm.10Q.INVEST 21:56, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Near Azores
There's an AOI currently near the Azores that seems to be possible for tropical development via extratropical transition. This isn't the AOI we were discussing above, but this AOI near the Azores right now already has an LLC and 35kts winds. All it really needs is to convert over... Yqt1001 22:22, September 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * Made a new section. This could form too.10Q.INVEST 02:39, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Could we have Rina then? We could use a few more non-failures for this year, because in the position this thing is in, it won't do anything. The Azores get storms all the time, and this one won't be exceptional if it does form over them. Ryan1000 03:18, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * About to be absorbed.10Q.INVEST 12:18, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now associated with a another system.10Q.INVEST 12:11, September 28, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
No harm in starting this early, like we did with the EPAC and WPAC, now is there? (names that I think will be retired are in bold) --HurricaneMaker99 15:29, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% - 25 deaths and $213 million are respectable fatality and damage totals, but probably not enough to earn retirement.
 * Bret: 0% - The resilience was admirable; however, considering the lack of any major effects, retirement is out of the question.
 * Cindy: 0% - I feel kinda bad booing her, since she survived into some really cold waters, but... BOO
 * Don: 0% - Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing.
 * Emily: 2% - A lot of promise gone to waste here, though there were fatalities.
 * Franklin: 0% - I smell fish...
 * Gert: 0% - Aside from the odd fresh gust in Bermuda, nothing.
 * Harvey: 5% - Minor damage and a few fatalities, but nothing in comparison to Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Widespread and extensive damage; $10 billion across the Caribbean and US? The outright pummeling of the Bahamas, the coastal flooding in NC and VA, the catastrophic inland flash flooding in Vermont and other areas... Irene has made enough enemies to be an easy candidate for retirement.
 * Jose: 0% - What Ryan said (lol).
 * Katia: 2% - Knocked up the UK a bit while extratropical, but had minimal effects on land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Lee: 35% - I'm getting Agnes-ish vibes from this one. Those floods were widespread and destructive, and in some places in PA and NY, just horrific. Lee broke flooding records from Agnes. Agnes, for Christ's sake! Granted it's a bit more likely that Lee will go the way of Fay, he could pull an Allison, too. I'll be very interested to see where the monetary damage figures end up – I'm expecting at least Fay-like totals.
 * Maria: 2% - Not even close to a re-Igor for Newfoundland, and the Lessers didn't get much damage either.
 * Nate: 5% - Veracruz has seen much worse than this.
 * Ophelia: 0% (tentative) - Failed where Maria succeeded, though there's a chance it could regenerate.


 * I'm going to wait until later here. If 91L (Emily) of this year happens to do what her 2005 predecesor couldn't(that is, cause enough damage to be retired), then I'll throw in my percentages because as of now, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement. Thus far, I'd be surprised if we have ANY names nominated. Arlene didn't hit Mexico hard enough, and every other storm thus far did virtually nothing. Ryan1000 05:03, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine:
 * Arlene - 15% - It killed two dozen people, but Mexico has seen worse than her, and Arlene's coming back in 2017.
 * Bret - 0% - I don't think Bret's going, unless he's some tyrant name.
 * Cindy - 0% - See you in 2017!!!
 * Don - 1% - Affected land, dropped 2/3 inch of rain in Brownsville, that's it. No way Don's going.
 * Emily - 4% - Not Hanna or Gordon bad.
 * Franklin - 0% - See Cindy's section.
 * Gert - 0.01% - Only because she forced TS warnings for Bermuda.
 * Harvey - 5% - It wasn't a fishie, but if Matthew last year didn't go, then Harvey won't.
 * Irene - 80% - Irene has caused enough damage to remove herself.
 * Jose - 0% - See Gert's section.
 * Katia - 1% - The UK may request retirement, but it's not likely.
 * Lee - 10% - Floods happened, but Allison (1989) was worse and didn't go.
 * Maria - 5% - If a storm like Maria hit NF last year, would it have gone? No!
 * Nate - 3% - Even Arlene makes this storm a fail.
 * Ophelia - 0% - Lost in Irene, Katia, and Maria's shadows.
 * Philippe - TBA - Still active
 * Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 20% - Damage was minimal, but a quarter 100 deaths? That's a hefty amount. However, Arlene did not cause many big problems to Mexico. Mexico also has been reluctant to retire what most would think to be terrible storms (well, technically all (except the fishies) are). If Karl was not retired, not Arlene. Bret: 0% - Thanks for your ability to fight the shear! Cindy: 0% - Cold water fishy Don: 1% - Don had hopes to bring the South Texas drought to a...well...away from exceptional, but Don did nothing but drop a few barely beneficial drops of rain. Emily: 5% - Emily caused deaths and damage especially to Hispaniola, but not enough for any true retirement. Franklin: 0% - A stupid storm in the middle of the ocean. If I were to give it a nickname I would call it 'The Perfect Fail' Gert: 0% - Gert did cause some issues, but it did not do much to Bermuda except bring some gusty winds as it moved to the east. On the move to 2017! Harvey: 4% - With the exception of 3 deaths and some flooding, Harvey was not a major issue. Irene: 97% - I'm placing my retirement card on Irene because she was too much. She cannot pull of a Karl because she was a big deal to so many countries. In the end, Puerto Rico will probably request retirement, Hispaniola probably will too with 5 deaths and Haiti, which practically will retire ANY hurricane that comes over them due to the earthquake's prolonged affects, cholera outbreak, worse living conditions, etc. For the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, damage wasn't too bad, especially when you look at past storms, but there were damages, and was considered the worst hurricane since Floyd. For them retirement is a maybe. The United States will 100% retire Irene: 35 (2) deaths and ~$7 billion. Overall, the odds of retirement are almost certain. Once again let me put the numbers in perspective: 43 indirect and direct deaths, $10.1 billion in damages CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:38, August 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Arlene: 20% Cause some impact in Mexico it kills at least 25 but like they said here Mexico have seen worst things.


 * Bret: 1% He survived shear and just that, The 1% is for the effect on the Bahamas but retirement is not gonna happen.


 * Cindy: 0% What does she do???NOTHING the NHC just throw a name like that but I admire her by her duration on cold water


 * Don: 1% That 1% is just for the damage in the carribean and just that, not even give Texas the water that it need just after landfall it dissipites Fail


 * Emily : 3% A lot of promises but not even one she do.


 * Franklin: 0% you and Cindy are just gonna be best friends, you two have a lot in common especially that both of you are fails.


 * Gert: 1% just because she affected Bermuda, but hey honey you are staying no matter what.
 * Harvey : 3% damage in my country nor belize was enough to earn retirement but at least it tried.


 * Irene:97% for me damage was enough for retirement Puerto Rico or the U.S.A may ask the name of this beauty.
 * Jose:1% Another fail of the 2011 but I have to give him credit for surviving and strenghtening in the high shear
 * Katia:1% good storm to track but not she is not going
 * Katia:1% good storm to track but not she is not going
 * Katia:1% good storm to track but not she is not going


 * Lee:17% it did damge but not severe for retirement but I have to say he is one of the best candidates until now with Irene and Arlene


 * Maria:5% it was not that bad but it was a hurricane nontheless


 * Nate:5% dissipite after landfall PATHETIC just like don


 * Ophelia: TBK
 * Allanjeffs 03:00, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * :: okz well here r my forcasts
 * arlene 18% deaths and damage but not alot
 * bret 1% cause of the bahamas but no real retirement
 * cindy 0% ur on the train to 2017
 * don 2% cause of the caribian but not really
 * emily 6% well alot of brushing land
 * franklin 0%ur also on the train to 2017 =D
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda

Well, I'll give my (official) percentages as of now:


 * Arlene - 15% - 25 deaths and 213 million is an okay number, but not enough to retire a name, especially for Mexico.


 * Bret - 0% - There's fail...


 * Cindy - 0% - ...And there's epic fail!


 * Don - 0% - "Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing." --HM99.


 * Emily - 5% - Not bad enough.


 * Franklin - 0% - Which one was Franklin again?


 * Gert - 0% - It tried and failed.


 * Harvey - 5% - It tried and failed.

That's all I can say for now. Ryan1000 17:15, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene - 85% - It tried and succeded. Although Irene wasn't as bad as she could've been and we got very lucky from her, with 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths, chances are in favor of retirement.
 * Jose - 0% - No way Jose.
 * Katia - 0% - Not exactly a fail since it was a C4, but as with every other fishspinner, it has no chance of retirement.
 * Lee - 20% - I'll tack a 1 in 5 chance on Lee because inland flooding was quite severe, and it killed many people, but it might have been overshadowed by Irene in the areas it did affect in the northeast, or the overall flooding that happened in the area anyways.
 * Maria - 5% - She might have winded the upper lessers and Newfoundland a bit but both areas have seen much worse, and Maria's coming back in 2017.
 * Nate - 5% - Wasn't as bad as Arlene.
 * Ophelia - ?? - It came back to life, but what it does to, perhaps Bermuda, may determine if Ophelia has a chance of retirement.
 * Philippe - 0% - Do I need to say anything here?

Here's mine:


 * Arlene - 5% - Karl didn't get retired, why should this one?


 * Bret - 0% - Other than TS warnings, it did nothing.


 * Cindy - 0% - It wasn't even close to Bermuda.


 * Don - 0% - Could have gotten a higher number, but this one really failed.


 * Emily - 5% It did brush the Leeward Islands.


 * Franklin - 0% - This one's not going.


 * Gert - 0% - Only TD winds were felt at Bermuda.


 * Harvey - 5% - Well, it tried.


 * Irene - 95% - It did enough damage in the Carribean, adding the East Coast makes it go off the list.


 * Jose - 5% - It formed so close to Bermuda and it still did nothing.


 * Katia - 20% - Unless it did moderate or serious damage in Europe.


 * Lee - 20% - It has damage, but not too much.
 * Maria - 10% - Unless your looking forward to it as a Igor-like storm.
 * Nate - 5% - See Arlene's section.
 * Ophelia - 20% - Even it does hit land, it's not going to be retired.
 * Philippe - 0% - The worse it could get is a Maria - like storm.

Here's a summary.. 10Q.INVEST 02:27, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone - Irene
 * Might be gone - Lee, Katia, Maria, Arlene
 * Staying - the rest

Here are mine:


 * Arlene - 15% - Possible, but unlikely.


 * Bret - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Cindy - 0% - Fishspinner


 * Don - <1% - Hardly did anything.


 * Emily - 5% - Some effect, but not severe.


 * Franklin - 0% - Near fishspinner.


 * Gert - 0% - Bermuda just got a little breeze.


 * Harvey - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Irene - 90% - U.S. damage is estimated to be about $7 billion, and add the Caribbean damage and it totals to about $10 billion. The U.S. won't pass on this one I am pretty sure.


 * Jose - 3% - Some effect at Bermuda, but nothing very severe.

70.171.254.210 01:44, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine: All of that saying so far, Irene will be the first storm to get the boot. Now, Isaac is the last remaining original I storm. Given that they are cursed, I expect that to get the boot in a few years too. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:20, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% – Didn't do a whole much of anything... I didn't see any reports of Mexico calling this that bad.
 * Bret: 0% – Obvious
 * Cindy: 0% – Obvious
 * Don: 1% – Donepicfail will never ever be retired, ever.
 * Emily: 4% – Emilyfail didn't do anything much to Hispaniola.
 * Franklin: 0% – Few hours of fame
 * Gert: 0% – Obvious
 * Harvey: 15% – Central America/Mexico wasn't crying that this was destructive, so this is obvious.
 * Irene: 91% – Moderate to severe damage over a wide area, with the US having massive floods, this will get the boot. This is not gonna be an Karl... Irene is much, much more widespread and people actually know the extend of the damage.
 * Jose: 0% – 24 hours of fame

The Great Seer has spoken: It's been a crazy season so far. I have a feeling we're just getting started. -- SkyFury 03:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 30% - 22 deaths and $223 million in damage is nothing to sneeze at, I don't care what Mexico says. I had no idea it was that bad. If that was in the US, we'd have it up around 50% at least. Those are definately retirement-worthy numbers. Do I think it will be retired? No. But the numbers certainly qualify.
 * Bret: 2% - Sure made for a lousy weekend on Abaco Island, but otherwise bupkiss. Most of Bret's effects were beneficial.
 * Cindy: 0% - Look, a shooting star! Quick everybody make a wish!
 * Don: 1% - Per my usual custom, I never give a storm that affected land a 0% chance. I was really hoping to be able to make a Godfather reference with this one, but that's kinda hard to do with a storm that fell flat on its face. Though I guess it's fair to say that TS Don sleeps with the fishes ;)
 * Emily: 10% - It did kill five people. I'm still confused about Emily. It will go down as one of the most troublesome storms in history from a forecasting persepective. SMH...
 * Franklin: 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Gert: 0% - I get the feeling there were a few surfers on Bermuda who were sorely disappointed.
 * Harvey: 8% - This one could've been a lot worse. I think a lot of people were worried about another Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Wow, what a storm. As we feared, this has turned into another Floyd/Isabel with devastating inland flooding. But as bad as it was, it could've been a whole lot worse. It would've been catastrophic had it hit North Carolina as a Cat 3 and NYC as a Cat 2, as originally predicted. This was really setting up to be a worst case scenario with the size of the storm, track right over NYC, and astronomical tides. Thank God it didn't happen. I don't think I'll ever forget seeing Times Square, Grand Central Station, and Atlantic City's casinos completely and utterly vacant. It really was post apocalyptic. I was waiting for Will Smith and the zombies to jump out at any minute. Incredible. I hope you guys took it all in, because we may never see another storm like that in our lifetimes. I thought every single elected official at the state and local level did an exemplary job preparing for this storm. I don't think they could've handled it better. It had been almost three years since a big storm hit the US and there was plenty of room for complacency, but all the mayors and governors handled this with the utmost seriousness and professionalism. It took a lot of balls for Mayor Bloomberg and Governor Christie to order those evacuations. And apart from North Carolina, these were places that never have to deal with stuff like this. For a bunch of them, this was their first serious threat from a hurricane in decades. I was blown away by how well they handled it. Their actions saved lives. Hats off.
 * Jose: 0% - *facepalm*
 * Katia: 4% - Hey, it was fun to watch. A major hurricane for a change. And the British Isles took a beating from this. Four people did die.
 * Lee: 25% - Flooded the rest of the eastern US. Death toll is up to 17 now. As feared, this got pretty ugly. It brought a crapload of rain to places that couldn't take another drop. It exascerbated flooding in the wake of Irene. It's a cruel irony that Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were drowning in 15 inches of rain while neighboring Texas is in a historic drought with huge wildfires destroying homes. All Lee did for them was fan the flames.
 * Maria: 5% - Well this ended up getting pretty interesting, especially for Newfoundland, who've had a rather lively past couple of seasons. But this was no Igor. It was certainly blustery, probably exhilarating down on the south coast, but they came out of it unscathed.
 * Nate: 10% - Another disappointment. They gave the kids in Veracruz the day off from school for this. That said, at least five people have died in flooding and ten oil rig workers are missing. Yikes. Hence the 10%, which could be conservative if these early reports turn out to be true.
 * To be continued...

Anything but Irene 0 percent, Irene at 60 percent (while I've substracted some 25 percent due to the fact that the basin is running out names commencing with an I) --88.102.101.245 11:49, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Here's what I have:


 * Arlene: 20%. The deaths and damages were something notable, but just not enough to cut through Mexico's reputation.


 * Bret: 1%. Little rain, not much else.


 * Cindy: 0%. Hello, speedy!


 * Don: 1%. To say the least, this was probably the first time a tropical storm not making landfall was a disappointment to the people there. Texas needed the rain.


 * Emily: 15%. It was quite aggravating to track and did do some damage. The thing that makes me wonder is that the worst hit may have been Martinique...the same Martinique that got Klaus off the list. However, Emily, fortunately, was no Klaus.


 * Franklin: 0%. While it did rain on Bermuda to a tiny degree, who would remember this one?


 * Gert: 0%. Yet another near-hit with no effects.


 * Harvey: 1%. Yet another minor effects storm.


 * Irene: 85%. It was leading up to this. Major damage, high death toll, and although it wasn't as bad as predicted, it was still bad enough. It's time for a 12-year-late retirement.


 * Jose: -5%. The dead-ringer of Tropical Storm Kay from the 2004 Pacific hurricane season and Tropical Storm Ernesto of the 2000 Atlantic season. It was such a bomb of a storm that I can't even give it a 0.

That's all for now! Jake52 22:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 10%. It affected Mexico, but that's it.

Bret: 1%. Didn't do anything

Cindy: 0%. Hey Fishie!

Don: 1%. It hit near Baffin Bay dieing out quickly, but no retirement

Emily: 10%. No major damage along the path

Franklin: 0%. See Cindy

Gert: 1%. Near hit on Bermuda, but missed.

Harvey: 10%. It made landfall twice, but no severe damage

Irene: 80%. A damaging storm, though not as worse than was expected, but a good chance

Jose: 5%. Unexpected formation, a near hit on Bermuda, but not huge damage

Katia: 0%. Reached Cat. 4 status, but no

Lee: 30%. Lee might be a player, damage was mostly from floods.

Maria: 10%. Not a really bad hit, and not another Igor happening.

Nate: 1%. Fizzled quickly, and did not do anything bad in Mexico.

Ophelia: 0%. Did absolutley nothing worthy of retirement

Philippe: N/A. Still Active

OWEN2011 02:17, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

In general, here is a summary of what's going and what's not:

Gone: Irene 

Possibly so: Arlene, Emily, Lee 

Possibly not: Harvey, Maria, Nate 

Staying: Bret, Cindy, Don, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Ophelia, Philippe

Hurricane Andrew (444)' 02:52, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

Although we have had a rather active season thus far this year, the ACE sucks, TBH, and we have had only one bad storm thus far in 2011, so we're better than where we were in previous years. At this time in 2004, we had Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne was in the making, and at this time in 2005 we had Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and Rita was going to be forming as well. We had Gustav and Ike done with at this time in 2008 and Andrew was long past done at this time in 1992. I do not use past seasons as a prescedent of what's to come; for example, although we have a chance of seeing a Wilma, Mitch, Paloma, or Lenny-like storm in October and November, I don't directly count on it, since no two seasons are exactly alike. We got much luckier this year than we probrably ever could've been in the history of ever. Irene could have easily been a 100 billion-dollar storm if it hit NC as a cat 3 and NYC as a cat 2 like it was originally predicted. The timing of Irene's landfall couldn't have been any worse. The tides were at their peaks when it made landfall. New England suffered record August rainfall so the ground couldn't hold any more water, maximizing flood potential. The only thing that saved us was a patch of dry air that was over South Carolina and Georgia at the time Irene was doing her ERC. That dry air weakened her to a C1 when it made landfall in North Carolina, saving the coast from what could've been the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Although Irene was nowhere close to being a Katrina, 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths(mostly in the U.S) is still nothing to be taken lightly. Irene has a very likely chance of being retired, not 100% though, and it ended a very long drought on the east coast, the longest ever known between any two hurricanes there. Ryan1000 10:51, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

Very Mid-season forecasts
Why call it very mid-season forecasts? Because most mid-seasoners do it in early August. Well, welcome to the true mid season, the beginning of September (almost!). As we near the second half and the most active half, we already have a taste of what the first half did. Here is my prediction: 17 total systems, 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. My ACE calculations lead me to believe a near normal statistic, around the 70-110 range. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:49, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

My prediction was 18 tropical cyclones, 17 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and 1 Category 5.

Now, doing it like CSU does it, we have 6 tropical cyclones, 6 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes, 0 Category 5's, and a ACE of 10. My post - August 13 activity is 12 tropical cyclones, 11 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 majors, 1 Category 5, and a ACE of 140.

For more information, go to my blog:

Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:09, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * With the activity so far, we might challenge 2010's total of 19 named storms. If we keep spitting out storms at this rate into November, and double the rate in September, there should be no reason we don't reach 20 storms. I still stick with 5 majors, only because the basin is warm and little shear..as the SAL slowly lifts, the CV season will probably be huge...so far the pattern is looking like most CV storms will go into the US too. Yqt1001 16:21, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Although we may have a higher chance of destruction, we can never accurately forecast damages or retirements; last year almost permanently taught me that fact. I don't truly know if we will have our streak end this year, but I hope it does, every year without a landfall just makes it worse. However, I must agree that at the rate we are going, we indeed have a descent shot at catching up to 2005, possibly 2010 and definitely 2004 and 2008(in numbers). Ryan1000 01:29, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * See much more detailed and more precise information, see my forecast blog. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:08, August 15, 2011 (UTC)

Irene seems likely to hit the USA as a hurricane...or will it be down to TS strength (and dodge the Outer Banks) before a New England landfall?(Yesterday NHC maps had it hit NYC,but the track keeps moving east).--12.144.5.2 19:26, August 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * A re-Bob or re-Carol seems more likely than anything as of now, but the 20-year drought for New England is probrably going to end this Saturday. Irene may end the drought there, but elsewhere in the U.S, we're rather silent; although the 5.8 earthquake shook up a large chunk of the eastern seaboard, overall damage was insevere. Irene won't be that way. Keep your eyes out for her over the next few days. Ryan1000 22:55, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * BTW, for further information, I made my official forecasts for worldwide activity of 2011 in my blog. You can view them here. Ryan1000 18:10, September 3, 2011 (UTC)


 * After thinking about my "mid season forecasts", I have come up with them finally. ATL: 24-26 depressions, 22-24 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes, 0-2 category 5 hurricanes The reason for this is the fact that many models are predicting that we will get to atleast Rina before the end of September and most of those storms forming in areas very conducive for development. The dry air will probably remain heavy for the time being but I can see it dropping down low enough for a decent amount of hurricanes to develop this year. EPac (including CPac): 10-12 depressions, 9-11 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes and 0-1 category 5 hurricanes The reason for this is that quite a bit of signs point to a shut down of the EPac starting around now. I won't say that Greg will be the last named storm, but the models don't show much more activity in the EPac for a while. WPac: 37-43 depressions, 20-25 named storms, 10-15 typhoons, 5-7 super typhoons I'm not as good at predicting the WPac as I am for the ATL, so I had to leave the margins large and I don't have much to prove my thoughts. NWIO: 6-8 depressions, 2-4 deep depressions, 1-3 named cyclones, 0-1 severe/super cyclones The first peak of the season has already passed. This could pull a 2010 AHS and become a record season during the second peak though. :P I would do SHem, but I don't think too much will come from it, maybe 1 MH strength cyclone and a few named storms. Yqt1001 00:48, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

US Hurricane Drought
Yes, it's Eric! SkyFury is back for another season by popular demand. I am currently enjoying my retirement from Wikipedia but am happy to rejoin the forums for the hurricane season. I normally get back to the Wiki for the new season by July, but this summer has been really busy for me and, despite the activity, am only just now returning. I have received messages of distress about the state of affairs in the forums, but from what I can tell, this Wiki has done nothing but get better in my absence. Ryan1000, I know I have some missed messages from you (one from forever ago) and I intend to address those tomorrow, when it's not 2:30 in the morning lol. Tonight I come, as I usually do, bearing historical food for thought. A hurricane has not made landfall in the US since Ike in 2008. If a hurricane doesn't hit the US before September 2, it will be the longest drought since 1980-1983, and that's only if Iwa's brush of Hawaii in 1982 is discounted. If one doesn't hit before September 21, it will be the longest drought since the Civil War. -- SkyFury 06:33, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well then, welcome back here! (I'm a new user BTW, so I don't think you know me). I also want to add the fact that we have gone 5 years, 9 months, 3 weeks, and 2 days (i.e. six years!!!) since a major hit the U.S (unless you count Ike). If this continues until October 24, that's a record major hurricane drought. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:20, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Welcome back! (I'm relatively new too, but you probably have a hint of a clue about me since I was around for a bit of 2010) The forums have really calmed down now and are stable ever since darren retired. He comes back everynow and then and downcasts YE and the EPac, but his surprise attacks aren't often. Ryan is doing a good job operating the forums now. :) What I'm curious about is your thoughts on this season. So far we have had a bunch of weak storms..one after each other at record pace. When do you think the season will get it's first major? When will the season start kicking out hurricanes? If ever? Yqt1001 13:30, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L (future Harvey) could easily end that drought; from what I'm reading of the HWRF model available on the WunderMap, it's forecasting Harvey to have a pressure of 933–935 mbar as it scrapes Cuba and heads just north of the Yucatan. What happens after that is anyone's guess, but judging from the re-curvature shown in that model, Texas could easily see a direct hit from Harvey. They need the rain, but no major hurricanes, please! --HurricaneMaker99 14:14, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * And better late than never; welcome back, Eric :) --HurricaneMaker99 20:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, welcome back SkyFury! Since I just came on the forums, let me introduce myself. I am CobraStrike from Austin, Texas and I am 11 years old. Anyways, coincidentally, as this section on the US Hurricane Drought continues, Rick Knabb of the Weather Channel published an article on what he felt were the top 5 most overdue cities. They are:
 * 5. Tampa - Not one hurricane since the costliest hurricane (inflation adjusted) of 1921 has directly affected Tampa. They were lucky in 2004 to not get hit by a small Charley, which went a little further south.
 * 4. Savannah - Not a major hurricane has affected Savannah, Georgia since 1893. Even the National Hurricane Center calls Georgia hurricanes sleeping giants.
 * 3. New York City - The large population makes it vulnurable, and the number of "close calls" makes people think the Big Apple is a hurricane shield.
 * 2. San Diego - Not since 1858.
 * 1. Honolulu - Has never been affected by a hurricane, yet has had close calls.
 * CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:21, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, what's baffling to me a bit more is our East coast streak in the U.S. We have not seen a major hurricane in the U.S. since October 24, 2005, discounting Ike of 2008. We usually see an east coast hurricane in the U.S. once every two years, but we have gone for 6 years without an east coast hurricane in 2011, since Katrina in 2005. That is the longest streak I can find in the history of ever. A close runner-up was an almost from Ginger of 1971 to David of 1979, but Hurricane Belle hit near NYC as a minor hurricane in August 1976. The closest runner-up for no Major hurricanes streak in the U.S. was, well, the civil war, almost since record-keeping began. I didn't think Hurricane Wiki would get so out of control ever since you left Eric, but the good news is you're back now. And CobraStrike, the biggest overdue city in the United States is actually Miami, Florida. Despite having a history of over, say thousands of major hurricanes in the past 150 years, the last time Miami was devastated by a monster hurricane was in 1926(Andrew of 1992 missed them a teeny bit to the south). If Miami was hit by a monster category 5 hurricane today, it would cause over 150 billion in damage because Miami has buit up so much since Andrew, and after Miami comes NYC, then Houston(New Orleans already got devastated), then Tampa/Savannah, and to a lesser extent places like Virginia Beach, Virginia and Atlantic City, New Jersy, perhaps Jacksonville or Charelston as well. The only epically devastating cyclone thus far this year was Yasi, which kicked the living sh!t out of Queensland last February, and became one of the worst storms in Australia's history, let alone the costliest discounting inflation. Innisfail, Mission Beach, and Tully were wiped off of the face of the earth from Yasi's massive storm surge, estimated by some to be higher than even Katrina's. It's a good thing that that 155 mph, 300 mile wide monster didn't hit a bigger city like Townsville or Brisbane, and fortunately it caused only one (indirect) death. Ryan1000 16:57, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Yqt, I agree, the lack of power displayed by the storms thus far in 2011 is surprising. This is the latest we have gone without a hurricane since 2006, and most of the seasons that wait this late have been down years. That said, we've had seven names scratched off the list, which is a damn lot, but not one of them has been a hurricane. 2002 waited until the 'G' storm (Gustav) on September 11 before it had its first hurricane. No season in the naming era (since 1950) has gone this far down the list still hurricane-less. I remember the 2003 EPAC season went all the way down to Ignacio before they had a hurricane. They did not have a major hurricane that year for the first time in forever. It's really difficult to say when the season will start showing some force. Emily was a big freaking mystery. The models were clueless. It should've turned north and threatened the US as at least a borderline hurricane but instead it stalled off Hispaniola and died. That was bizarre. Yeah Ryan, beginning in 2004, hurricanes started trending noticably to the south through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. That in part explains the lack of any in the Carolinas and northward, but that doesn't explain the lack of any Florida impacts. Only four hurricanes (officially) have made landfall in the US since 2005, all of them along the western Gulf Coast, three in Texas and one in Louisiana. I will point out that Ernesto in 2006 and Hanna in 2008, which hit virtually the same spot in southern North Carolina, were so close to hurricane strength at landfall that the difference is negligible. However, you are right, the US eastern seaboard is in a major drought. The Atlantic coast has not had a major tropical event since Jeanne in 2004 (although Katrina, despite its lower intensity, did knock Florida around pretty good). North of Florida, there has not been a significant hurricane event since Isabel in 2003. Even more incredibly, there has not been a major event in New England in 20 years (Bob, 1991). It's like the Florida Panhandle's big drought before Eloise in 1975. And don't get me started on New York City. In my opinion, that's another Katrina waiting to happen. If they get so much as a Cat. 2 coming as far west as Brooklyn, they're in deep shit. -- SkyFury 23:14, August 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * But it's almost the opposite in the East Pacific somehow. Eric, we have had 6 hurricanes thus far in this year's EPac season, counting Greg's rescent upgrade, and if we get Fernanda to become a hurricane, it will mark the first time in the history of EVER that the first 7 storms there became hurricanes. The ACE in this year's EPac season has already jumped ahead of where last year ended at. The ACE per storm thus far is about 6.8(and counting) in EPac. 1992 had a total ACE per storm of about 11 in the EPac; 1990's ACE/storm was a little higher. Heck, at this rate, if Fernanda becomes a 'cane, all of this year's EPac storms will be hurricanes. In the case of the activity stuff Eric, Danielle wasn't even named at this time last year and keep in mind 2010 AHS still got to 19 storms, 12 canes, and 5 majors(yet somehow no U.S. hurricanes), so don't count out on this season yet, since the heart of 2011 is still yet to come. Now with the overdue places. Yes, I do agree with you a major hurricane, let alone a 100 mph or stronger storm, hitting NYC would be a horrible disaster for the U.S, but as I mentioned, a category 5 hurricane hitting Miami would be the worst-case scenario for destruction in the U.S. They have had a longer drought than any other major city in the U.S. except for NYC. The last, and to date, most severe major hurricane to directly hit Miami was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. True Miami has had a lot of near-close calls since then but no direct hits by any hurricanes of the intensity of the 1926 storm. Andrew, as I mentioned above, missed them by only 10 or 20 miles to the south, but it missed them far enough not to directly hit them. I can't imagine what a hurricane like the 1926 hurricane would do to Miami today. It would be a disaster without parallell in U.S. history. NYC would be severely damaged by a 115-125 mph major hurricane today, but Miami would be butt f**ked by a 150-160 mph category 4-5 monster. Although there are many overdue places in the U.S, Miami takes the cake. I'm not doomcasting here, but i'm pointing out some very important facts about how lucky we really have gotten since the monster(s) of '04, '05, and '08. This year could just be the last straw... Ryan1000 05:01, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm not saying it wouldn't be really bad, but Miami is a well-prepared city and an Category 5 taking direct aim at a major city is a one in a million shot. Only three have made landfall anywhere in the United States in the past 160 years. Granted, if a major city was going to take a Cat 5 on the chin, it would probably be Miami, but the odds are still astronomical. That said, I am by no means dismissing the threat. A Cat 4 similar to the 1926 storm would be devastating. However, I would not expect a high death toll. The government and emergency personnel in south Florida have an organized and well-rehearsed evacuation plan. I would not expect another Rita. The damage would be extremely severe. Miami Beach would probably be all but wiped out and Coral Gables would be laid to waste. But I wouldn't expect a death toll much higher than Andrew. New York City on the other hand is a nightmare. The entire metro area is extremely low lying and sits right at the vertex of a concave coast. A 5-8 ft surge in Florida would be a 10-12 ft surge in NYC. An 8 ft surge hit the coast of Brooklyn during the 1938 hurricane despite the fact that the storm made landfall over 40 miles away. Like 15-20 million people live in Manhattan and Brooklyn alone. Even if you only had to evacuate a third of them, it would still be a logistical nightmare. Where would you put them all? Where do you send them? There are no direct routes away from ground zero. Brooklyn and Queens are on an island. Emergency managers up there have no experience with hurricanes. They'd have to figure it out as they went. The skyscrapers of Manhattan would act to funnel the storm surge, making it even worse. Anyone still on the streets when the storm hits is dead. A Category 3 or greater storm coming through Jamaica Bay and up through the city could kill over 1,000 people and do over $100 billion in damage. The economic cost would be at least twice that. Wall Street would be shut down for weeks, possibly months. The floors of the stock exchange would be flooded and gutted. Subways would be flooded and shorted out. It would take weeks just to pump the water out, let alone get them running again. Streets would be flooded or clogged with debris. Who knows how long it would take for the water to recede. The biggest commercial port in the US would be shut down. The economic capital of the world would be crippled. Even a Category 3, let alone a Category 4, could make 9/11 look like a traffic accident. -- SkyFury 19:08, August 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * The only thing I was saying is that a category 5 hurricane hardly leaves anything behind in it's wake. A category 3 hurricane causes severe damage. A category 5 causes catastrophic damage. Mark my words, and mark them good, there is no city on the entire gulf and east coast that is ready for a category 5 hurricane, and Miami definitely isn't. You can prepare for a category 5, but can never be ready for a category 5. What you're saying is NYC is so much more vulnerable to hurricanes that a cat 3 hitting them would be worse than a category 5 hitting Miami, ect, and I can completly understand that. I'm smart enough to know better, I know NYC is a tucked back coastal town, I know there are 15 million people in the 300-square mile city and I know evacuating all of those people would be next to impossible in a day or less, especially if a hurricane is approaching them at 60 miles an hour, like the 1938 hurricane did. New England hurricanes start to rocket in forward speed once they pass the Carolinas, and they can arrive to a landfall in hours, which can make evacuation decisions critical if they are made too early in places that aren't hit. What i'm saying is category 3 hurricanes destroy many structures in their path, but category 5 hurricanes destroy everything in their path, and only a handfull of cat 5's haven't been retired in the NAtl. Cleo was one, which was a rare fish cat. 5, Edith was another, which struck an unpopulated part of Honduras known as cabo gracias a dios(cape thank god), before hitting the U.S. as a cat 2, and lastly, Emily of '05, which, despite causing widespread destruction across the Caribbean and Mexico, didn't become retired. I personally don't think Ethel of 1960 really was a cat 5, but if it really was, it only tapped the gulf as a minor TS. What I was saying is a category 5 hurricane destroying 90-100% of all the buildings in Miami might do more damage than a category 3 destroying 60-80% of NYC's buildings simply because they leave behind hardly nothing, not to mention a cat 5 in Miami could also devastate a gulf coast city like Houston, Tampa, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, or Mobile(no offense Eric). The big difference between Miami and NYC is how the people think about hurricanes. People in NYC say "you know, we don't get hurricanes here", and people in Miami say "Ah, we get hurricanes all the time; this one won't be any different from the others". Neither of them think right; the people there need to get ready every hurricane season. Every season is a gamble, with millions of lives at risk. Anyways, I don't want to do any doomcasting or argue over which hurricane would be worse since it's obvious neither scenario is good. Back to the seasonal activity, Eric, we have had 8 storms but no hurricanes thus far. I asked you earlier on your talk page what you thought 2011 would be like for the NAtl, and even though the NAtl hasn't produced anything catastrophic as of yet, worldwide we have had one(Yasi), as I mentioned earlier, it was Australia's costliest cyclone in history excluding inflation and second costliest counting inflation behind Tracy. Since we have had no hurricanes out of our first 8 storms thus far in 2011 AHS, does this season remind you of 2007, or do you not think we will have so many hurricanes ths year altogether? If the 16-storm forecast average remains true for the rest of 2011, we have to have 8 consecutive hurricanes starting with Irene to get the forecast numbers. I think we will only have 4-6 hurricanes, assuming the total numbers remain 16-17 storms. But it all depends. Ryan1000 01:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * While a lot of storms so far in 2011 have fizzled, the season as a whole has been very active. We've already had nine storms and there's still a week of August left. The GFS brings two new storms off the west coast of Africa in the coming days, one of which is already a medium risk area. We could very easily be on the 'L' storm by the beginning of September. This makes me nervous about what September holds. Conditions overall in the Atlantic have greatly improved and we're already seeing the danger of that with Irene, which could turn out to be a very serious event. The Bermuda High has been much weaker the past couple of years than it was from 2004-2009. However if significant ridging could build ahead of one of these African waves, which seem to be coming in bunches, we could very easily see a major Caribbean hurricane. So while we may not have as many hurricanes as originally forecast, the forecast for total activity is still looking good. And remember, it only takes one bad storm to make it a bad season (see Andrew). -- SkyFury 05:29, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * In the case of Irene, it has a good chance to make landfall in the U.S. as at least a 100 mph C2, but that depends on if it continues to rapidly intensify into a category 4 or 5(more probable for a 4), and then ends the streak for east coast hurricanes. There is no gurantee the eastern seaboard will reccieve a category 3 landfall, especially if it misses the outer banks, but it is more than likely it will be at least a category 2 when it does make landfall. I would be surprised if Irene doesn't make it to a 135-140 mph C4 today. However, yes Eric, given the fact we haven't had our first hurricane until Irene came along, we might not have as many hurricanes as we were expected to see; i'd expect about 6-7 in the entire season. However, as you said, it can just take one(perhaps Irene) to make 2011 a notable season. Although the Bermuda high has been weaker than normal, it certainly won't be enough right now, especially for Irene, it has a pretty good chance to not miss the entire east coast. Although Wilma is considered to remain the most rescent U.S. major, I don't want to exclude Ike of 2008 since it was the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history and 5th deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. since 1950. Only Diane, Audrey, Agnes, and Katrina were deadlier since then, so in my book, Irene would be the first in 3 years. Ryan1000 12:38, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * What's more concerning is the Texas-Southeast US drought. Since puny Don couldn't bust the dry air, it will likely take a major hurricane landfall to relieve the drought, and that could be devastating considering 32C+ Gulf SSTs. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:55, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The folks down there can use a break after Humberto, Dolly, Gustav, and Ike of 2007-08. Florida might need a wake-up call though because ever since '04 and '05, they have seen virtually nothing. Everywhere else they can stay the hell away from! Ryan1000 21:55, August 26, 2011 (UTC)

The drought is over
Irene has made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC as a strong (85/90 mph) Category 1. --HurricaneMaker99 11:59, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

So, we finally have a hurricane after 3 years, and a east coast one in 6 years. This hurricane drought was the longest one since 1999-2002, and the east coast 'cane drought was a record drought that has finally ended. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:32, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not looking good for the folks in New England... Due to Irene's rapid forward speed, it's forecast to directly pass over NYC from the south, so damage from her could still be very severe. Ryan1000 15:22, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The pattern this year favours US landfalls, so i can only wonder how drought busting htis year will be. Only time will tell I guss. Yqt1001 22:01, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * This hurricane drought took a spot in 2nd for the longest drought, only behind the CIVIL WAR. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:16, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I just did calculations, and it turns out the time between Ike's landfall and Irene's landfall is 1077 days! 1077!!! That number is incredible. And CS, the US hurricane drought that happened between Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Hurricane Alicia in 1983 was longer than this drought, but shorter than the Civil War drought (The 1980-1983 absence totaled 1103 days). Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:36, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * That depends if you do or don't count Iwa of 1982, which struck Hawaii in November. And the longest east coast streak was technically 1861-1869, if you want to go that far back. The longest hurricane streak? There are a number of close calls. Irene 99 to Lili 2002, Andrew 1992 to Erin 1995, Ike to Irene, and since the Civil war, the record in question is from November 2, 1861 to September 13, 1865. That record still stands as of today. Ryan1000 22:42, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * If I were to pick at the Civil War drought, I would think that there was a hurricane landfalling on the US in that time frame, because the Americans were to busy at the Civil War to make certain that a hurricane did/did not make landfall. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:57, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * We couldn't have made that drought so, it was either a quiet perod in NAtl or just a really good run of luck. Ryan1000 23:01, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The hurricane drought is over, but the major hurricane drought is not. Suprise11 16:18, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * The major hurricane drought is not even three years yet becasue as far as I'm concerned, Ike was a major hurricane. I'll buy that Gustav wasn't, if close, but Ike was. -- SkyFury 23:02, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't really tell the difference between a normal U.S. MH and a ginormous C2 which was one of the worst storms ever known. We went 5 years without one from Bret 1999 to Charley 2004(Unless you count Isabel), and since Wilma of 2005, we certainly had Ike and Gustav, and Irene most rescently, but although none of them were major hurricanes when they hit the U.S, they certainly had the impacts of them. We still have a chance to see an "official" U.S. MH in this year since 2011 is far from over, but Irene was the only wake-up call we really needed. Ryan1000 05:46, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * The major hurricane drought is not even three years yet becasue as far as I'm concerned, Ike was a major hurricane. I'll buy that Gustav wasn't, if close, but Ike was. -- SkyFury 23:02, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't really tell the difference between a normal U.S. MH and a ginormous C2 which was one of the worst storms ever known. We went 5 years without one from Bret 1999 to Charley 2004(Unless you count Isabel), and since Wilma of 2005, we certainly had Ike and Gustav, and Irene most rescently, but although none of them were major hurricanes when they hit the U.S, they certainly had the impacts of them. We still have a chance to see an "official" U.S. MH in this year since 2011 is far from over, but Irene was the only wake-up call we really needed. Ryan1000 05:46, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Replacement names
Again, no harm in starting this early like in the WPAC. Do you guys have replacement names in mind for Irene (and/or Arlene/Emily)?

These are mine:

Female "I" names: Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:23, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Isa
 * Izzy
 * Ivy
 * Ila
 * Ilsa
 * Iman
 * Iphigenia
 * Idelia


 * What about Inga, Irma, or Ilsa? --HurricaneMaker99 03:38, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is also Irah (which was used years ago), Ilona, and Isla (pronouncd EYE-lah). Some strange "I" names are upon us... Check out Babynames.com, and look at the "I" names! Once we get past the aforementioned names, we are in for even weirder ones, as it looks like the "I" storm will always be at the peak of the season, and will commonly be a large offender. <font face= "Candara"><font color="6666CC">~TDI19!!! <font color="FF0000">...To...<font color="99CCFF">...From... 04:13, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Iva was formerly an EPac mystery retirement, perhaps due to the fact it was confusing with Iwa, which itself became retired due to it's destruction in Hawaii in 1982. My personal pick for Irene, if it even does become retired, would be Irma. And Arlene and Emily weren't bad enough for the places they hit, so I won't offer any replacements for them. Ryan1000 06:49, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).

Here are some more: 70.171.254.210 00:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ilaria
 * Imelda
 * Immacolata
 * Ines
 * Italia
 * Ilene
 * Ivory
 * Ivonette
 * Ivonne
 * Idoya
 * Ivette
 * Izumi
 * Iva
 * Ioanna
 * Irena

Ines seems unlikely due to Inez, which was formerly retired, and Irena seems a little too close to Irene IMO, but if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, both of which are 1 letter-off names, I won't rule it out. Italia seems unlikely as well since it's Spanish for Italy, a country's name(Israel replaced Ismael, a former EPac retiree, but it was never used because Israel felt offended from that name choice and requested it be removed). Again, my personal pick would be Irma. But we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 05:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Remember, Ryan, the statute of limitations on retired names is 30 years. Fabian (which replaced Frederic in 1979) was replaced with Fred in 2003. To follow up Hurricane Maker, I like Inga, but it may be too close to Ingrid, which is already on the list. Irma and Ilsa are also good options. Ivana is an option. I also like Imogen and Ileane but the latter may be too close to Ileana, which is in use in EPAC. Iva and Ivy are two other English options. If I had to pick a favorite, it would probably be either Inga or Ileane, which is phonetically the closest. -- SkyFury 22:54, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, the Federic>Fabian>Fred (mess up) from list 1 doesn't gurantee that the gap must be 30 years(especially since that was the only time it ever happened). Things can be different with replacement names. As I mentioned above, if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, which are both 1-letter off names from the retired name in question, it can't be said that the replacement name must be much different from the retiree in question, and the fact Ileana is in use in the EPac doesn't at all mean that Ileane can't be used as a replacement for Irene because Frank was used in last year's PHS and Franklin, a longer version of Frank and the name in place of Floyd, was used earlier this year in NAtl. So variants of names can be used in both ATL and EPac and replacement names can be one or two letters off from the retiree in question and still be acceptable by the requesting country. If you would rather stay away from variants of in-use names in either basin, names that are close to the retiree, or variants of former retirees, that's fine, but based on the facts, there is no gurantee a name can't be chosen under those conditions. When we requested Isabel of 2003, we send the names Ida, Ina, and Ivy as possible replacements of Isabel. The WMO selected Ida which was used two years ago, so given that they have two more backup "I" names, I wouldn't be surprised if Ina or Ivy is chosen. When a country requests a name to be removed, they send two or three possible names to replace the offending name. If it's different from any other name not in use and not formerly retired, the WMO just goes for it, I guess... My personal pick for Irene, as I mentioned earlier, would be Irma. Ryan1000 03:13, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I was referring to your dismissal of Ines/Inez as an option because it was retired in 1966. Just because it was retired in 1966 doesn't mean it can't be reassigned now that 45 years have passed. The generally accepted statute of limitations is 30 years and so far this has been generally followed, though Fred definately pushed it at exactly 30 years. I agree with you that just because a name is close to one that is retired or in use in another basin does not mean that it can't be used. If it's close to one in use in the Atlantic, however, that might be different. I think Inga is far enough away from Ingrid that it could be used, though it would make more sense as a replacement for Ingrid itself. If I had to pick a favorite, it would be Ileane. I think it flows well, though I imagine it might look a little different spraypainted on plywood. -- SkyFury 06:25, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, as I mentioned earlier, the Frederic>Fabian>Fred trio from list 1 doesn't gurantee the gap must be 30 years. Heck, Rita of 2005 was one of the worst U.S. storms ever and it was replaced with Rina. The difference between Rita and Rina is just about the same as Frederic and Fred IMO. I personally also try to stay away from variations of former retirees, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Ileane wouldn't be bad, given Frank and Franklin are on both lists, there is no gurantee variants of EPac names can't be used in NAtl either. We truly don't know what will happen with replacement names, but I am baffled by some of the WMO's picks. Dean's was the best example of WTF. Fred's choice was baffling, but Dean's replacement name was the worst excuse for a replacement name in the history of ever. Felix and Noel just made it worse... (I'm not reminding you of how silly the French are). Ryan1000 09:22, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

I don´t know why you say Dorian is a bad name for replacement because I really like it and maybe Mexico send that name to replace Dean because in there Dorian is a popular name Allanjeffs 20:58, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">No, it was chosen because somebody important is an Oscar Wilde fan. Ryan, don't get me started on the French, I think you know how I feel about that. Some of the replacement names recently have been absolutely ridiculous. Pretty soon people won't be able to listen to the tropical update without giggling. "Here's Tropical Storm Dorian..." *hysterical laughter*. Dorian was the worst, but Fernand? As far as I'm concerned, that's a typo. Fernando would've been the perfect choice, especially given the Spanish theme and that's the name that I acknowledge. Katia was a little silly but at least it makes sense with the Russian theme of Katrina. Rina sounds like something bad that happens to your kidneys. Gonzalo replacing Gustav was dumb. Isaias is kind of cool. And they redeemed themselves last year with Ian and Tobias, though why Matthew wasn't retired is beyond me, and I'm still confused about Alex and Karl. Apparently they weren't as bad as initially reported. Hanna is still a crime. -- SkyFury 21:24, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Okay, end of that. I won't discuss anymore about the replacement name fails with the WMO. Pisses me off... If any name would be more descent for Gustav, it would have been Gary IMO. Ian should have been Ike's replacement. Why Matthew wasn't retired is no mystery to me because after all the reports I went through with Mexico and Nicaragua after Matthew, it couldn't have done 2.6 billion in damage. That must be a false number. And Mexico hasn't retired many other storms in the past Eric. Alex and Karl are two. Others include Emily of 2005(massive damage on the Yucatan and the gulf coast of Mexico), Liza of 1976(the worst crime in EPac history; as many as 950 deaths in Mexico and no retirement), along with Tara and Tico. Paul of 1982 was also destructive and deadly, but it caused most of it's destruction as a precursor wave and not a named tropical cyclone. Allan, I believe Dean was nominated by Martinique or Guadelupe, not Mexico. Dean did more damage in the lesser antillies than it did in the greater antillies because those smaller lesser islands get little warning of the storm, wheras Jamacia and Mexico have very advanced warning systems for tropical cyclones so they minimize destruction and/or deaths despite the storm's intensity. Agatha of last year is an utter mystery as well... Alma on the other hand, did become retired, but because Alma means "Soul" in Spanish, the reason behind her retirement after 2008 may have been the fact the name itself was offensive and was retired for that reason rather than being destructive. That's my opinion. Mexico is probrably more conservative for retirements than any other country except Haiti(well, they almost never retire names anyway... remember Tomas was nominated by St. Lucia last year). Ryan1000 22:14, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Matthew killed 143 people, Ryan. I couldn't care less what the damage figure is, the death toll is staggering. Death toll > property damage in my book. And also, I think you missed my point earlier. I never said the gap must be 30 years. I said 30 years was generally accepted as an unwritten policy. I never said that limit was a strict stipulation, but it's a courtesy generally adhered to. The only reason I even brought it up in the first place was because you said that Inez/Ines wasn't an option because it had been retired in 1966. I said just because it was retired 45 years ago doesn't mean we can't use it now. You spent a whole lot of time preaching to the choir. You're right, just because a replacement name is similar doesn't mean it can't be used. It's generally frowned upon though to replace a retired name with a shortened form of the same name, like replacing Michael with Mike for example. Or Frederic with Fred, though again, that was not done directly and it satisfied the 30 year statute of limitations. These aren't necessarily rules, just etiquettes. -- SkyFury 03:48, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

I know there isn't a requirement for the gap to be 30 years, but if there are exeptions to the "rule", then we can't say those exeptions won't repeat themselves. I'm not all upset over chosing close names to former retirees, but to some extent(like Ines/Inez), yes. If you also don't like that, that's fine. I also agree with you on the fact deaths should weigh more than damage, but things aren't always that way for retired names. My personal opinion on retired names is dependent on how many problems a storm causes for an entire country as a whole. Hurricane Irene this year cut off transportation, left millions of people without power, and caused extensive damage over a widespread area of the eastern seaboard. Some areas described it as their worst storm in many years(not refering to Darren's opinion there). So Irene has a very good chance of being retired based on that. Worldwide, the only true shoe-in is Yasi of the SPac, but it obliterated entire towns in Quensland from it's massive storm surge and caused many problems for all of Australia. It just has to be retired. Ryan1000 04:45, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Hall of Fame
Hurricane Maker has expressed interest in me resurrecting my Hurricane Hall of Fame. I started it several years ago as just a fun little project, but then I brought it onto Wikipedia and it kind of took off. However it has been dormant since I left Wikipedia in 2010. There has not been an official class since 2008. I always wanted to expand my voter pool and our little tight knit group here on the forums seems like the perfect choice. I was thinking of adding the HOF ballot to our yearly betting pools page. See the link for some background and the rules and guidelines I laid out (years ago...I recently upped the cost limits for automatic nomination and induction). The way it normally worked was that I would make a list of ten nominees from which five would be selected, but I'm definately open to suggestions. I've also developed a seperate Historical Electorate (akin to Cooperstown's Historical Committee) for storms prior to 1875. In the HE, three inductees are selected from a list of ten nominees. What do you guys think? -- SkyFury 23:50, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm interested. At the end of this year, we may add a HOF ballot to the end of this year's betting pools in all basins. I don't know how the selection round will go then, voting process? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:27, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it would be a good idea, considering the fact that many people may express interest. Hurricane Andrew (444) 14:57, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Great idea, CS.10L.NONAME 20:50, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * My question is, if we're going to do this as an end-of-the-year thing, then does that have an impact on the "two seasons old" criterion for inclusion? Also, perhaps voters could submit their own nominations? --HurricaneMaker99 21:00, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * But then again this is the Hurricane Wikia. If we decide to keep the "two year seasons old" criterion, then voting pools can still happen every year, just that hurricanes will only be inducted once 2 seasons old. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:02, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don't worry. There's lots of hurricanes before 2009.10L.NONAME 22:55, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * The ones I personally want inducted are from '07 and '08; I asked in case anyone would have wanted to nominate any post-'09 storms. --HurricaneMaker99 22:58, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Should this be moved to a forum of it's own? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:07, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * What, the section or a new forum for the HOF? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think this should be it's own forum, like the favorite storms of 2011 forum I made earlier this year. The Worldwide activity discussion forum on the TC BasinNAV is for discussing worldwide activity of 2011. I also made one for 2012 as well, but it's made ahead of time. IMO Tip is no. 1 in the hall of Fame. Ryan1000 23:22, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think a separate forum page for this is a better option than the section. We had a huge debate over the same thing related to the WAD being in the EPac forum. The HoH isn't Atlantic only so it shouldn't be in the Atlantic forum. Yqt1001 00:41, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Based on the current consensus...I'll go ahead and make a forum for the HoH and move this. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * I would let SkyFury make it. It's his thing anyways. Yqt1001 00:49, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well I just made it, sorry, but SkyFury can go ahead and edit it to his liking. The forum is here. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:06, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

I've posted a bunch of information if you guys want to check it out. -- SkyFury 03:36, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Post Season Changes
It's not even close to post season yet, but during this lull in activity the NHC has been starting the TCRs already. The TCR for Cindy is out and she isn't as much of a fail as you guys thought. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down to 994mb and they said that Cindy was very close to a hurricane for nearly 8 hours and that any improvements in the eye and Cindy would've been the seasons first hurricane. So while we wait for the other TCRs, what do you guys think could be other changes? I personally think that one of the TS's (either Arlene, Gert or Harvey) will be upgraded to a hurricane and the third time Katia became a tropical storm will be a bit earlier and the upgrade back to a hurricane after that will be earlier also. Yqt1001 19:01, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * They aready finished Adrian.10Q.INVEST 19:54, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

I didn't expect that upgrade on Cindy, but it still spun fish nevertheless and sucked in ACE. We may change the face of this year with Ophelia, which is a story yet to come. Ryan1000 20:04, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I know this isn't really on topic, but did you guys still want to do the Hall of Fame thing at the end of the season. I added a bunch of info to the new forum page but everybody mysteriously lost interest, I guess because TC activity picked up. I never heard what people thought. -- SkyFury 20:24, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm ok with what you said and would still love to do it at the end of this season. I guess everyone is fine and is eagerly waiting until it starts. Yqt1001 20:49, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm actually kind of excited about it. Come November, we're going to really have to start talking about exactly what we want to do and how we want to do it. I have final exams the week of December 4, so we're probably looking at the final voting not taking place until the second or third week of December. Under the current expanded system, we're looking at voting being up to a three week affair, so, if we want to get this done by Christmas, we may want to go ahead and do the preliminary voting before the Thanksgiving holiday, given the spectre of exams for many of us come the last week of Nov/first week of Dec. Life comes first and I want a very relaxed atmosphere about this thing, so that's something I'll be thinking about come mid-October. But we've got plenty of time to think about it. -- SkyFury 06:49, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eugene is done too.10Q.INVEST 21:06, September 21, 2011 (UTC)