Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season

Future Start
Same with ATL and EPac. Betting pools for the WPac and NIO will be made once 2013 is over. Ryan1000 01:08, October 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here are my predictions for the Western Pacific (using JMA categories):

60 total depressions, 33 total tropical storms, 27 total severe tropical storms, 21 total typhoons (11 strong, 6 intense, and 4 violent), and an ACE of 450 (give or take 25). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:51, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * 60 depressions? Are you trying to predict the most active season in world history or something?! I don't think we will get even close to that number of depressions. Heck, we might not even reach 40. Anyway, time for my predictions, which are meant to be realistic as I can: 35 total depressions, 28 total tropical storms, 23 total severe tropical storms, 16 total typhoons (10 strong, 5 intense, and 2 violent). Steven  09876  ✉  05:34, January 4, 2014 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
NRL reports an invest with winds of 15 knots (15 mph) and a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:34, July 16, 2014 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Man, the 2014 PTS is really beginning a huge hot streak. Behind Matmo, Invest 96W is beginning to pose an increasing threat. It is currently located at 8.5N 149.4E, 158 nm north-northwest of Chuuk. Animated EIR imagery shows persistent flaring deep convection with formative banding in the southern quadrant wrapping into a consolidating LLCC. Recent microwave satellite passes indicate improved convection in the northern quadrant wrapping into the center, with 25 knot (30 mph) wind barbs in the southwestern quadrant. With good dual outflow and low to moderate vertical wind shear of five to fifteen knots, Invest 96W should have a favorable environment for intensification. Winds are analyzed to be near 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute sustained) with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). Chances of formation per the JTWC in the next 24 hours are assessed to be medium. Meanwhile, the JMA has classified the system as a tropical depression with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). It does not look bad ATM, but our fourth straight typhoon might come from this. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:09, July 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * The JMA reports winds of <30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute) . On the JTWC side, they have relocated Invest 96W to 11.7N 147.8E, 210 nm east-southeast of Guam. Disorganized deep convection is associated with an LLCC per MSI. An 0333Z NOAA-19 microwave images reveals fragmented convective banding wrapping into the LLCC. The invest is located in an environment with low to moderate VWS (five to fifteen knots) and good outflow. The winds and pressure per the JTWC are the same as in my above post. They assess the chances of formation in the next 24 hours as medium still due to slow consolidation. Due to its proximity to Matmo, I am not sure if Invest 96W can get that strong. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:56, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * It probably won't develop. Matmo is moving slowly northward towards Taiwan and it won't leave much behind for this one to intensify, I'd be surprised if it does become named. Ryan1000 18:01, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Ryan, Invest 96W would like to disagree with you. Per the JTWC, it's currently located at 12.6N 142.4E, 143 nm west-southwest (WSW) of Guam, and EIS imagery has revealed deep convection is consolidating around and elongated LLCC. A recent ASCAT pass has revealed winds of 20 knots (25 mph) near the center, with stronger gradient winds in the northern quadrant. With moderate vertical wind shear of 10 to 20 knots and fair westward diffluence, I see no reason this will not become at least a tropical depression. Winds are at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). A TCFA has been issued on Invest 96W, as it looks very decent. No updates from the JMA yet, but I feel tropical storm advisories may be issued soon from them. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:19, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like Matmo is now far enough away from this that it might have a chance. Not that I expect (nor want) it to get that strong, but now we very well might see Halong from this. Ryan1000 20:52, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, I believe we'll see something out of this. Here comes Halong! And for some reason I find the name to be a bit funny.--  Steve  820  ✉   17:00, July 23, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression
Steve and Ryan, I would like to disagree with both of you. The TCFA for Invest 96W was cancelled, and EIS imagery has revealed the system, now at 11.4N 134.6E, 240 nm north of Koror, has become highly elongated and the LLCC has become poorly organized with flaring disorganized convection. With strong VWS of 20 to 30 knots, all models back off on development now for at least another 48 hours. Winds remain at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute) with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). Looking at this, I would not be excited for anything right now in the WPAC. And Steve, Halong is a Vietnamese name which refers to a popular tourist destination in Vietnam. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:46, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ok, that's cool. Halong might have to wait I guess.--  Steve  820  ✉   17:14, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 96W is now located at 6.8N 135.1E, just 50 nm SE of Koror. With its LLCC still poorly organized and moderate VWS of 15 to 25 knots still present, the JTWC continue to report a low probability of formation in the next 24 hours. Winds are estimated to be at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute) per the JTWC with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:22, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * A sudden turnaround has occurred. Now located near 7.0N 135.1E, 34 nm ESE of Koror, Invest 96W has improved its convective banding in its southern quadrant based on an 0840Z SSMIS microwave image. In addition, MSI reveals deep convection around a consolidating LLCC. With good equatorial and westwards outflow, along with low to moderate VWS of five to fifteen knots and warm SST's, I still think Invest 96W has a chance of becoming tropical. The JTWC report winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute) with a pressure of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). With the improving conditions, the JTWC have upped 96W's probability for formation in the next 24 hours to be medium. While the JMA has stopped tracking the system, I have no doubts they will begin to reissue advisories soon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:54, July 25, 2014 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (2nd time)
Invest 96W has been relocated to 9.3N 133.2E, 120 nm NNW of Koror. MSI continues to reveal flaring deep convection around an elongated and poorly defined LLCC. A strong westerly wind burst of 25 to 30 knots (30 to 35 mph) has been reported based on ASCAT imagery. Further development may be rather slow due to moderate to high VWS of 20 to 30 knots, albeit conductive SST's. The JTWC estimate winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph, 25 to 40 km/h)  (1-minute winds)  with a pressure of around 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). They assess Invest 96W's chances of formation in the next 24 hours to be medium. Meanwhile, the JMA has reclassified the depression  (at least I think so)  with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg); winds are not specified yet. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:01, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Persistent little sucker, eh? Well I still doubt it'll be named. Oh and btw, from now on, typhoons here will be classified in the active storms header as either: normal (cat 1 color), very strong (cat 3 color), and violent (cat 5 color). Ryan1000 21:46, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah this is being very persistant :P But I really don't think it'll be Halong. It has a chance but I doubt it. --  Steve  820  ✉    22:31, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * The JMA has lowered the depression's pressure to 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg).  Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:22, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 96W is now located at 14.4N 134.5E, 430 nm N of Koror. Convection has not improved whatsoever based on MSI imagery, and a recent 0134Z ASCAT pass revealed strong westerly flow displaced to the south. With the same amounts of VWS from my last post, despite favorable SST's, this thing is going to have a struggle getting its act together. Winds and pressure remain unchanged per the JTWC, and the chances of formation for the next 24 hours remain medium. Meanwhile, on the JMA side, they have lowered the system's pressure to 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). It doesn't look like this will become anything strong.  Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:34, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * 96W has been relocated to 18.6N 133.4E, 550 nm SE of Kadena AFB in Okinawa. Animated EIS reveals a broad and elongated circulation with deep convection flaring around on the outside around a poorly defined LLCC. The invest has a marginally conductive environment for further development, with good outflow and moderate VWS of 15 to 20 knots. The JTWC reports the same intensity since my last post, with a medium chance of formation still given in the next 24 hours. However, the JMA has placed the depression on their tracking map with winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)  (10-minute)  and a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg). For the time being, they expect a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)  (10-minute)  with a pressure of 992 mbar (hPa) in the next 24 hours. This doesn't look like it will become a strong system, and I doubt it will due to the conditions it is in.  Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:07, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Inday
Now named Inday by PAGASA. May become Nakri in the next few days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * 96W is now located at 18.9N 132.0E, 505 nm SSE of Okinawa. MSI shows a monsoon-like depression persisting around a poorly defined LLCC. An 0055Z ASCAT image reveals 25 to 35 knot southwesterly winds in the southern quadrant, and strong outflow. VWS is low in the center, but rather strong as one moves away from it. A strong anticyclone is also present in 96W. This is a very interesting system; it looks like a TC but it does not have the consolidation of one. However, most models indicate additional intensification over the next few days as it moves northwestwards. Winds are at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg). JMA reports the same winds as before, with the same forecast peak. PAGASA estimates winds of 55 km/h (30 knots, 35 mph) (10-minute) in Inday's center, and they do not expect it to affect the Philippines. However, it could enhance the southwestern monsoonal flow, bringing rain to much of the northern Philippines, including Manila. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:25, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nakri
Now a TS per JMA, still medium chance for JTWC.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:47, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks like the depression (finally) did it. Named Nakri (a Cambodian name for a kind of flower), winds are at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) and the pressure is at 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg) per the JMA. They forecast what I would call a weaker version of Matmo, with peak winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute) with a pressure of 985 mbar (hPa) expected in ~48 to 72 hours. Unfortunately, Nakri's large monsoonal structure will likely prevent any major intensification, but Taiwan and Mainland China still need to watch out. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:24, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, hopefully Taiwan, China, and the Ryukyu Islands remain safe from the storm. Even though it's weak it still might cause plenty of flash floods due to it's large monsoonal structure. --  Steve  820  ✉   00:11, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nakri looks rather disorganized for a TS, with a half-moon shape of convection on the south side like Halong. But due to it's large size, flooding could be a big concern when it moves up towards Japan and the Korean Peninsula, this is what Bilis of 2006 looked like when it hit Taiwan and China, and we all know how devastating he turned out to be. Best-case scenario is that Nakri moves on fast enough so flooding doesn't become a huge problem for them. Ryan1000 21:34, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Winds are now at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) per the JMA. The forecast track has been shifted so the Korean Peninsula is more likely to receive a direct hit from Nakri. A peak of 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute) /980 mbar (hPa) before this happens, however. Meanwhile, the JTWC has issued a TCFA on the potential development of Invest 96W. Located 416 nm SSE of Kadena AFB, EIS depicts a consolidating monsoonal-like depression which looks more like a TC. A 1200Z depicts a broad region of 30 to 40 knot southwesterly winds over the southern quadrant of the invest. With excellent equatorial outflow and low to moderate VWS, I will not be surprised if the JTWC begins issuing advisories soon as well. They report winds of 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-minute) with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa). PAGASA still reports winds of 55 km/h (30 knots, 35 mph) (10-minute) with no Philippine effects. For a system this large, we could see some deadly impacts. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:13, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Even though it's weak, it still has potential to cause flash flooding and other destructive impacts. Hopefully Korea will be safe! --  Steve  820  ✉   01:38, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nakri
Very interesting situation we have here. The JMA has upped Nakri's winds to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) and lowered its pressure to 980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg). They expect the storm to maintain its intensity into the Yellow Sea, where it is predicted to gradually weaken and die between China and Korea. Meanwhile, the JTWC has still failed to classify this system. Located near 24.7N 128.0E, 100 nm south of Kadena AFB, EIS depicts a continually consolidating monsoonal depression. The strongest winds are to the outside of the depression, but central winds are reported to be at 15 to 20 knots. A 1237Z ASCAT pass agrees with this data, but it failed to examine the core of 96W. An anticyclone is developing over the LLCC, producing low amounts of wind shear. Winds are estimated to be around 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph, 40 to 50 km/h) (1-minute) with a pressure of 992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg) per the JTWC. Still issuing a TCFA, they assess the chances of 96W's formation to be high. To my knowledge, this is the first time I have seen a STS being issued on by the JMA without the JTWC doing so! This is quite uncommon!!! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:01, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's rare for the JMA to upgrade a system to a STS without the JTWC having ever recognized it as a tropical cyclone, but it's happened before. See Phanfone '08 for a precedent. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:24, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * The JMA have upped Nakri's winds to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (10-minute) . They now expect a slower death from the storm in the Yellow Sea, which could be hazardous, given its large size. Meanwhile, the JTWC has located Invest 96W to 27.9N 126.0E, 111 nm NW of Kadena AFB. MSI shows deep convection associated with a monsoonal-like structure, with the strongest winds far displaced from the center. Central winds are estimated to be at 10 to 20 knots around a grossly elongated LLCC. With the invest tracking into 20 to 25 knots of moderate VWS and a mid-latitude trough slated to decrease poleward outflow, the JTWC has lowered 96W's chances of formation to medium for the next 24 hours and cancelled the TCFA. Winds are estimated to be around 15 to 20 knots (20 to 25 mph, 30 to 40 km/h) (1-minute) with an estimated pressure of 987 mbar (hPa; 29.15 inHg). Dylan, in the case of Phanfone, it took until post-season for the JMA to upgrade it. Nakri has been upgraded while still active - and it has higher winds than Phanfone. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Invest 90W has been classified per the JTWC. It is currently at 6.5N 159.1E, 60 nm ESE of Pohnpei, with a broad and elongated LLCC and developing convection in the southwestern quadrant per MSI. Enhanced westerly flow is also present per a recent 2331Z ASCAT pass, with west to southwest wind observations in Pohnpei reaching 10 to 15 knots. With low to moderate VWS of 10 to 15 knots, most dynamic models forecast development in the next 48 to 72 hours. However, chances of formation in the next 24 hours per the JTWC are currently at low. The agency also estimates winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph, 25 to 40 km/h) (1-minute winds) with a pressure of around 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg). I hope this can become something! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:09, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * This is the one that I predict could be Halong. --  Steve  820  ✉   22:32, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 90W has been relocated to 11.7N 153.9E, 290 nm NNE of Chuuk. MSI reveals a highly elongated, chaotic LLCC oriented NW to SE, with flaring convection in the northern quadrant. A 0356Z AMSU-B microwave image shows poor organization and weakly defined convection. Due to a trough entering the area and VWS kicking in, outflow has become limited in the system. Nevertheless, most dynamic models get aggressive with Invest 90W after the next 48 to 72 hours. However, the JTWC still assesses the probability of development in the next 24 hours to be low. Winds have decreased to 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph, 15 to 25 km/h) (1-minute winds) per the JTWC, and they have also lowered the pressure to 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.76 inHg). The JMA has not commented yet on this system, to my knowledge. Keep trying, Invest 90W! You'll eventually become something! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:43, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11W
90W has become a tropical depression per the JTWC; they have numbered it 11W. Located 251 nm ESE of Andersen AFB (Air Force Base), animated EIS reveals deep central convection obscuring an LLCC. Also, a recent 1624Z NOAA-19 microwave image reveals convective banding wrapping in the northern and southern quadrants. Based on PGTW and KNES Dvorak estimates, the intensity of 11W has been set at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h). Under the influence of the southwestern periphery of the STR, Tropical Depression 11W should continue to move westwards. With excellent equatorial outflow and low to moderate VWS of five to fifteen knots, the depression should gradually intensify to become a typhoon with winds of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 85 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h). However, due to uncertainty in the current position of 11W, the JTWC is not very confident with their forecast. Meanwhile, the JMA have placed the depression on their tracking map with winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute) as well, accompanied by a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). They are rather aggressive with this system for an initial forecast - taking it up to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h)/994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg) within the next 24 hours; this is the highest initial intensity forecast I have ever seen them give! Hopefully the folks in Guam make it out okay! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:18, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now named Halong by JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:24, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Halong
Wow, 11W has been intensifying much faster than I thought! The JMA already has classified the depression as Tropical Storm Halong (Vietnamese for a popular tourist destination), with winds of 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute), accompanied by a pressure of 992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg). They are rather aggressive with the storm, as it curves north-northwestwards, with a forecast peak of 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute) /955 mbar (hPa) expected in the next 72 hours. The JTWC have fixed Halong's center to be 134 nm E of Andersen AFB, and EIS imagery depicts improved convective banding. Also, a recent 1146Z GMI image reveals a small microwave eye feature is present on satellite imagery! Based on ASCAT images of 45 to 50 knot core winds, PGTW estimates of 55 knots, and the storm's convective structure, the JTWC has set Halong's one-minute winds to be 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). Upper-level analysis reveals enhanced outflow and two TUTT cells feeding in from the northeast and west. Due to the motion of 96W (Inday), the STR to the north of Halong should build, guiding it generally northwestwards. For the next 72 hours, favorable environmental conditions should allow a peak of 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute). Hopefully, everything turns out all right! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:37, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Guam is going to get some rain from this storm, but it likely won't be too severe for them; they've gotten very prepared for typhoons since they were decimated by past storms like Karen, Pamela, Paka, and most recently Pongsona. I think it will most likely head towards Japan in the long run, hopefully by then as a weakening typhoon like Neoguri earlier this year. Ryan1000 20:51, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * No worries, the current JTWC forecast weakens Halong long before it reaches Okinawa. However, it is continuing to get more organized. A 1612Z NOAA-19 image reveals tightly-curved banding wrapping into the LLCC, and EIS is showing improved convective banding. Based on PGTW Dvorak estimates and its current structure, the JTWC have kept Halong's winds at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). Improving upper-level conditions should continue to allow the storm to intensify, reaching the same forecast peak from my last post with gusts of 130 knots (150 mph) in ~72 hours. Afterwards, increasing VWS will prompt gradual weakening of Halong, crashing down to a weak Category 2 typhoon in ~120 hours. Heavy rains were reported in Guam from the storm, but I don't think it was too bad for them. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:34, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * This luckily shouldn't do much to land, unlike Nakri which seems to be threatening the Ryukyu Islands, China, and Taiwan. I root for Halong to become something strong! --  Steve  820  ✉   00:09, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong is now located 122 nm NW of Navasta, Guam. Unfortunately, EIS reveals an upper-level anticyclone which has been creating VWS in excess of 30 knots around the storm, diminishing the deep convection and exposing the LLCC. Decreasing Dvorak numbers have prompted the JTWC to lower Halong's winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h). The storm should track northwestwards under the influence of the southern periphery of a STR for the next 48 hours, and then interaction with Nakri will cause a shift in the STR's position. High amounts of VWS should prevent any significant intensification of Halong for the next couple of days, but marginal environmental improvements should prompt quicker intensification. A peak of 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute) with gusts of 105 knots (120 mph) before an upper-level high pressure and increasing VWS kick in again. Meanwhile, the JMA has maintained Halong's intensity and predicts a peak of 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute) as well, with a pressure of 955 mbar (hPa) for the next 72 hours. It looks like Halong still has a chance to become something decent, but not as strong as we expected. As a side note, gusts of 53 mph and 11.82 inches of rain were reported in Andersen AFB from Halong. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:34, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Maybe it'll only peak as a weak typhoon. I still root for it to rapidly intensify, even though that is looking unlikely at this point. --  Steve  820  ✉   01:41, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong has been relocated to 181 nm NNW of Navasta, Guam. Intensity and forecast logic remain the same from both the JTWC and JMA side. Minor damage has been reported in Guam. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:16, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong is now located at 14.9N 140.0E, 236 nm NNW of Navasta, Guam. EIS reveals deep convection is increasing again while a CDO has developed over a once-exposed LLCC. A 1037Z SSMIS microwave image reveals the convection is also wrapping tighter into the LLCC and becoming more defined. Although Dvroak estimates from PGTW and RJTD remain at 45 knots, the increased consolidation has prompted the JTWC to raise Halong's intensity back to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (1-minute) with gusts of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). Currently tracking westwards under the influence of the southern periphery of a STR, the storm is expected to move more west-northwestwards for another 36 hours per the JTWC, before the STR weakens and prompts a more northwestwards movement. Despite the presence of northerly VWS, strong equatorial outflow should prompt gradual intensification to 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph) over the next 72 hours. Afterwards, unfavorable conditions should initiate Halong's weakening, but it could still reach the Ryukyu Islands as a modest typhoon. Minimal damage has been reported in Guam, and I hope that is all I hear impactwise from this storm. Meanwhile, the JMA have lowered Halong's pressure slightly to 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). For whatever reason, they are not as excited about the system as they were before; they only take it to 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute) /960 mbar (hPa) for the next 72 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong is now located 301 nm NNW of Yap. MSI reveals strong northerly VWS of 30 to 40 knots attacking the storm, exposing the LLCC. Nevertheless, excellent equatorial outflow to the primary system convection. Moving northwards under the southern periphery of an STR, it should turn northwestwards for the remainder of the forecast period. Eventually, Halong will weaken due to a broad upper-level high pressure area to its northwest, towards the Ryukyu Islands. Winds have been slightly increased by the JTWC to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute), gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). The same JTWC forecast peak is expected, and no intensity or forecast changes have been made by the JMA. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:03, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Halong
Halong has been relocated to 14.7N 138.6E, 313 nm N of Yap. MSI and water vapor imagery still show strong VWS of 30 to 40 knots affecting the storm, and the LLCC is still somewhat exposed. Based on PGTW, KNES, and RJTD Dvorak estimates, Halong's JTWC intensity has been maintained. The storm should move generally WNW under the influence of the Philippine Sea STR. This will bring it to areas of less lethal VWS, prompting the forecast peak of 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute). After several days, a trough will modify the position of the STR and Nakri, allowing Halong to recurve more eastwards, per GFS and ECMWF. NAVGEM, however, predicts Halong will follow in Nakri's footsteps. Regardless of which direction Halong takes, many people need to start getting prepared soon. Also, the JMA has upgraded Halong's winds to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (10-minute) and lowered its pressure to 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg). Their forecast peak for the storm is 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute) /950 mbar (hPa), similar to the JTWC. IMO, Halong has the looks of a typhoon; it's just lacking the winds. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:49, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

August
Welcome to August in the WPAC! With the MJO in full swing here, I definitely think we are looking at an active month here. 9 depressions, 7 storms, 5 severe tropical storms, 4 typhoons, and an ACE of 90 units is what I would expect from here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:25, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
With four storms at hand, I feel like we can start this section.


 * 1) January JMA Tropical Depression - 0% - For obvious reasons.
 * 2) Lingling - 15% - I don't know what to say here. Seventy people is a hefty fatality number from all that flooding in the Philippines, but worse has struck and evicted them.
 * 3) *Agaton - 25% - Usually, it takes 300 fatalities to bust out a PAGASA name, but Agaton was a very nasty early season surprise for them.
 * 4) Kajiki - 5% - Seven fatalities and an early season Philippine landfall is probably all Kajiki will be remembered for, and Lingling was worse.
 * 5) *Basyang - 10% - I feel Agaton was worse, although Basyang did kill seven and produce minor impacts.
 * 6) Faxai - 0% - Became a breathtaking March typhoon, but caused no land impacts, so no.
 * 7) March JMA Tropical Depression - 0%
 * 8) 04W - 0% - Not named by the JMA.
 * 9) *Caloy - 1% - Even Basyang was worse!
 * 10) Peipah - 0.1% - This could have been a much different story for the Philippines. Luckily, Peipah was kept in check.
 * 11) *Domeng - 0.1% - Caloy was worse than you!
 * 12) Mitag - 0.5% - Mitag zipped by a number of areas, but it had very little impact whatsoever outside of the Philippines.
 * 13) *Ester - 2% - Some slight flooding was reported in the Philippines, but no damages or fatalites have been reported.
 * 14) Hagibis - 8% - Well, the $131 million (2014 USD) was more than I expected. But even with 11 casualties, I do not think Hagibis will get retired.
 * 15) Neoguri - 10% - With seven fatalities and slight to moderate damage across Okinawa and Japan, I do not expect Neoguri's demise yet.
 * 16) *Florita - 0% - To my knowledge, Florita completely missed the Philippines.
 * 17) Rammasun - 60% - Yikes, the Thai god of thunder sure did leave his mark. Ninety percent of Metro Manila was left without power, and almost a hundred fatalities were reported in the Philippines. If that does not seal the deal, 51,000 homes were destroyed by Rammasun in Hainan, and Haikou, widespread tree, flooding, structural, and vehicle damage was reported. This was the most severe impacts they have witnessed from a typhoon in over four centuries. Vietnam also saw some nasty effects from Rammasun. With 187 fatalities and $6.51 billion (2014 USD) in losses, the typhoon is the sixth costliest WPAC system on record. I really hope Rammasun is kicked off the list, but deadlier storms have been snubbed in the past.
 * 18) *Glenda - 100% - Recent damage estimates from Glenda guarantee its retirement.
 * 19) Matmo - 20% - Matmo caused some severe agricultural damage in Taiwan and killed three across the nation and China. In addition, there was the nasty TransAsia airline crash which killed 48. Although this was less devastating than what I thought, 62 deaths and $565 million (2014 USD) is nothing we should be laughing at, and there is definitely a good chance here.
 * 20) *Henry - 1% - As far as I recall, nothing yet has been reported in the Philippines from Henry.
 * 21) Halong - TBA - Still Active
 * 22) Nakri - TBA - Still Active
 * 23) *Inday - TBA - Still Active

Post yours, too! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

Steven's retirement predictions:

JMA names
 * Lingling: 20% - 70 deaths but still doesn't seem bad enough for a retirement.
 * Kajiki: 5% - Slight impacts for the Philippines, but Lingling was worse.
 * Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon, but still no land impacts.
 * Peipah: 1% - Umm, no.
 * Tapah: 0% - No land was harmed in the making of Tapah.
 * Mitag: 0.5% - Very little impact.
 * Hagibis: 5% - $131 million in China and 11 deaths, but it most likely won't be retired.
 * Neoguri: 10% - Could've been a different story for Japan but luckily it weakened a lot before reaching Japan. There were much worse storms than Neoguri in the country, so I don't expect a retirement out of this guy.
 * Rammasun: 70% - With all the damages it caused in Philippines and Hainan a retirement is very likely out of him.
 * Matmo: 30% - Slight chance due to some destruction in Taiwan and China. It also caused a very deadly TransAsia plane crash that caused 48 deaths.
 * Halong: ? - Still active
 * Nakri: ? - Still active

PAGASA names
 * Agaton: 30% - What a nasty early season surprise, might be retired but at the same time I think not.
 * Basyang: 10% - 7 deaths, however, Agaton was worse and Basyang barely has a chance.
 * Caloy: 1% - Seriously? Even Basyang was worse than you.
 * Domeng: 0.01% - Lol, this epic fail couldn't even compete with Caloy! :O It still affected land though, so I tacked a "0.01%" on Domeng.
 * Ester: 1% - Some flooding in the Philippines but it's not getting the boot.
 * Florita: 0% - Missed the Philippines
 * Glenda: 100% - With all the damages it caused, it will certainly be retired. PHP 1 billion in damage is enough to give it the boot.
 * Henry: 0% - Missed the Philippines
 * Inday: ? - Still active

 Steve  820  ✉   20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC) (Last updated: 00:13, July 30, 2014 (UTC))

Ryan Grand's great speech...

JMA names: PAGASA names:
 * Lingling - 38% - 70 deaths isn't anything to laugh at, but enough for retirement? Probably not, unfortunately.
 * Kajiki - 3% - Caused some impacts, but it's nothing retirement-worthy.
 * Faxai - 0% - Became a typhoon, that's about it.
 * Peipah - 7% - Wasn't anything severe.
 * Tapah - 0% - No notable impact.
 * Mitang - 0% - Didn't know this one existed lol.
 * Hagbis - 15% - 131 million in damage and 11 deaths isn't a fail, but it's not enough to get the boot either.
 * Neoguri - 11% - Killed 7 people and caused some damage here and there, but Japan has seen worse and I don't expect it to be retired.
 * Rammasun - 80% - Six billion dollars in damage and over 100 deaths are very good numbers to retire a name, making Rammasun one of the top 10 costliest typhoons in history, but there have been bigger numbers from some other snubs in the WPac before, like Songda '04 (9 billion in damage) and Fengshen '08 (over 1000 deaths). Still, it was a widespread, destructive storm, and it has a fairly good shot at retirement.
 * Matmo - 30% - Current statistics show 136 million in damage and over 50 deaths in Taiwan and China, but they're no stranger to storms like that.
 * Agaton - 35% - A bit higher than it's JMA name, but even so, I have doubts it will go.
 * Basyang - 8% - Killed a few people and caused some damage, but it was far less devastating than Agaton, and many other storms that have hit the islands in the past.
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Is this a joke?
 * Domeng - 0% - Didn't cause severe effects to the Philipines.
 * Ester - 0% - Missed them completely.
 * Florita - 0% - Not even close.
 * Glenda - 100% - PAGASA storms are retired if they cause at least 1 billion PHP in damage, and Glenda caused roughly 10 billion (the 9th costliest typhoon in the nation's history), so yeah, goodbye.
 * Henry - 0% - Didn't touch the Philipines.

That sums it up. Ryan1000 23:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

71.187.140.146's retirements PAGASA TO BE CONTINUED 71.187.140.146 23:17, May 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lingling - 15%
 * Kajiki  - 0.05%
 * Faxai - 0% - Good job Faxai.
 * Peipah - 8% -  for its name sounds like Peppa(which was called Peppa Pig)
 * Tapah - 0.5% - Tapah reminds me of a Japanese Man
 * Agaton - 25%
 * Basyang - 9%
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Funny name
 * Domemeng - 4% - lower than JMA name

MY PREDICTIONS:


 * JMA:


 * Lingling - 30% - significant damage to the Philippines, but not enough.
 * Kajiki - 10% - Lingling was worse.
 * Faxai - 5% - A March typhoon. Just a March typhoon. No impact(s) at land.
 * Peipah - 2% - Eh?
 * Tapah - 0% - Wait, there's a storm named Tapah?
 * Mitag - 3% - Um... not really.
 * Hagibis - 20% - Oh, 11 deaths and $131 million worth of damage. China has seen worse storms.
 * Neoguri - 23% - Japan has seen worse than this, but wow, it was a big threat to Japan
 * Rammasun - 85% - Philippines consider this comparable to Xangsane, but Xangsane was worse though. But 40 deaths is quite big. And it hasn't dissipated yet. Forget what I have said before, $4.55 billion worth of damages and 170 total deaths in China, Vietnam and the Philippines is enough to retire Rammasun.
 * PAGASA:


 * Agaton - 35% - What an early surprise to the Philippines. 70 deaths, but that's it.
 * Basyang - 25% - Agaton was worse.
 * Caloy - 0% - Nah.
 * Domeng - 0% - Same with Caloy.
 * Ester - 2% - Quite affected the Philippines, but no significant damage.
 * Florita - 3% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon, but other than that, nothing else.
 * Glenda - 100% - OUT. PHP 1 billion worth of damages is enough.
 * (TO BE CONTINUED) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * (TO BE CONTINUED) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Time to throw my hat into the ring:
 * JMA
 * Lingling: 29% - 70 fatalities is no laughing matter, but deadlier Philippine storms have been snubbed before.
 * Kajiki: 7% - Wasn't bad enough.
 * Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon... and that's it.
 * Peipah: 0% - Nah.
 * Tapah: 0% - Glub glub glub.
 * Mitag: Who cares?
 * Hagibis: 13% - Death toll and damage bill are respectable, but not enough.
 * Neoguri: 14% - ^
 * Rammasun: 88% - Severe, widespread damage across several countries. $6.51 billion in damage and a grand total of 187 deaths significantly outshines the impact from last year's Utor, which was retired.
 * Matmo: 33% - Could've been a lot worse.
 * Matmo: 33% - Could've been a lot worse.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:05, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * PAGASA
 * Glenda: 100% - Damage bill is 1080% of the criteria, and rising.
 * All others: 0% - Did not meet the criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities.
 * All others: 0% - Did not meet the criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities.