Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season

91L.INVEST
The wave behind 90L has been invest'd. NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 06:39, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * High risk now. This storm reminds me of Bill last year. YE 14:54, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * 25 kts already. 9 hours till the moment of truth. Will it be Four? Atomic7732 17:26, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's up to 80% on NHC! I'm guessing a cat. 2 landfall somewhere in Florida, and the rest is pure guesswork. By the worst-case scenario, it could be like Georges 1998 but farther north and weaker. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:55, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * I hope it goes further north and pull a Bill. YE 19:17, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's looking like... I want to give a hurricane name, but no track have I seen that is similar to what GFS gives it (and I have a vauge idea of some hurricanes since the 1980's cause did a hurricane track classification Cape Verde, Gulf, Central America... etc). HWRF gives it Tropical Storm status by the next TWO issuance. Atomic7732 20:23, August 1, 2010 (UTC)

And GFDL gives it a minimal cat 2 on a Bill-like track. HWRF also runs a similar track, but brings it to a Cat 3 status. Atomic7732 20:25, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Now the storm is looking more like a Fran than a Georges, looking at the long-range 12z GFS here. The storm is also expected to stall over the Gulf Stream, which could either cause it to weaken due to shear, or rapidly intensify due to deep continuous warm water and anomalies. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:54, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * 90% now... Atomic7732 23:48, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Or maybe it will be like Danny? YE 03:36, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * 90%? Seriously? More NHC semantics. It's a tropical depression and they know it. NHC policy is they gotta make it stand up in court, but if there aren't advisories on this thing by dawn I might just have to file suit (Forgive the pun, I couldn't resist). Before we break out the doomsday predictions, the models have been trending downward. GFDL, which just a few days ago made it a Cat 4 pointed at Florida, now for some reason doesn't do anything with it at all. Same with NOGAPS. HWRF no longer makes it a hurricane. GFS I think has a similar forecast. SHIPS likes it the best, bringing it to 70 knots in 84 hrs (3 1/2 days). I think CMC is the only other model that makes it a hurricane and well, it's CMC. So, bottom line, I wouldn't get excited just yet. -- SkyFury 05:26, August 2, 2010 (UTC)


 * It's been TD 4 in my book since yesterday. And...

HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
 * Yeah whatever... Atomic7732 06:09, August 2, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
25/1006 now. Because it has TD winds I am assuming it is a TC. YE 12:55, August 2, 2010 (UTC)


 * Where are you getting this? It's still a disturbance on NHC and an invest on NRL. However, the defined closed circulation, spiral banding, and collapse of a central dense overcast-like feature into the preparation to form an eye looks to me like it's not far from tropical storm strength. This could become Colin very soon, and most long-term forecasts recurve it but the trough may weaken enough that a high pressure system either stalls it over the Gulf Stream and/or drives it into New England. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * The RBT. YE 14:33, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Breaking News. It is official now! Yay! YE 14:38, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * What's RBT? Now it's on NHC. I'm predicting a weak cat. 1 landfall on Long Island based on the current track. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:52, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * RBT=best Track. See here. YE 16:22, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Kinda late don't ya think? This was Four 24 hours ago (not offically, but they know it)! Atomic7732 17:19, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * At first, it lacked a closed LLC. YE 19:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still TD... Atomic7732 22:23, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still TD per RBT. Darnit. YE 02:14, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * looks like Ana last year YE 02:48, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Peak intensity 60 mph. Forecast gone has been shifted to the right. YE 03:01, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

I am thoroughly underwhelmed by this system. -- SkyFury 07:04, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Colin
Upgraded, Eric, I Dont blame you. This system is boring. YE 14:57, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Named! --Patteroast 09:20, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Watch out NHC! Get ready to be surprised. I think this thing has some tricks up it's sleeve. Atomic7732 16:17, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Yeah, called the Great Tropical Cyclone Vanishing Act. -- SkyFury 16:53, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Good point... Atomic7732 16:55, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * dont worry, it is gonna be a fishspinner. YE 16:57, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Poof. Another dud. -- SkyFury 20:45, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * That was unexpected. YE 21:15, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Told ya. Supposed to be post-tropical for quite a while... extratropical depressions are boring. You suck Colin. Atomic7732 22:00, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

Remnants of Colin
NHC says it may regenerate if it's able to get past the shear. We'll have to see. You know, for all the gloom and doom predictions for this season, it has been awfully dull since Alex. -- SkyFury 00:20, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I know, since when do EPAC invests dont develop. Bonnie and TD 2 were nothing, and Colin was a dud. Last year, at lat of duds by at least they where not epic fails like Colin, Bonnie (which was really a though IMO), and Six-E. However, i am at least happen my predictions came true. But again I did not think we would have a hyperactive season just slighly more active than a 2009 or 2006 type year (which was a lot of fun). YE`

10% chance of cyclone formation, the remnants of Colin. Atomic7732 06:04, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Unlikely, IMO. YE 14:51, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Up to 20%, it's looking more organized right now than it ever was as Colin. Atomic7732 17:34, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * 40% medium risk. Must be moving out of the shear, or the shear has dissipated. Atomic7732 00:03, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * 50% now. YE 12:34, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * 70% now... They're gonna name it Colin again right? And don't you think we should at least title this section Remnants?Atomic7732 17:57, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * No neeed IMO, anyway, I think we will have a TS soon. YE 18:04, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * I agree. Colin is far more impressive now than it ever was. Most of the models seem to want to intensify it late, when it's up around 40N and at least the GFDL and HWRF both seem to have it as a tropical system at that point, which is interesting. GFDL brings it up to a major hurricane. HWRF makes it a marginal hurricane. The statistical models don't seem to enamored with the environment it's in and want to shear it to hell before redeveloping it late, possibly as an extratropical (forgive me "post-tropical") system. We'll see if Colin's able to pull an Irene (see 2005 AHS). -- SkyFury 20:51, August 5, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Colin
It's back! Darned 99E, how did you let him beat you to it? Atomic7732 00:42, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * a 45 mph epic fail now, like everything else since June when you had two grates (Celia, and Alex). YE 14:57, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, as the NHC said, the shear should decrease and there is a chance (40%) that Colin might strengthen to a 75 mph. hurricane before transition. Darren 23 Edits 15:41, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Remeber, the LLC is exposed for now. I say 40 at 5. YE 16:28, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Recon plane should investigate later today, somehow, I think we are in for a surprise. Darren 23 Edits 16:58, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * I dont expect much form this system other than minor effects on Bermuda and it makes JR happy- he goes storm chasing. YE 19:28, August 6, 2010 (UTC)

Does JR live in Bermuda? If so, he will thenceforth be known as Lucky Bastard. For the record, this shear really sucks. I can't say I anticipated it being that bad. Those models better be right our this Colin comeback tour isn't going to last long. That said, the storm looks REALLY good right now. We'll have to see if this is just a convective burst or if the shear really is weakening. Colin has gotten a lot better organized since this afternoon. The last NHC discussion aluded to this possibility. Although I'm not entirely sure that qualifies as bad news for Bermuda. I don't think this thing will get any stronger than 65 knots regardless and it's gonna have to work to get there. -- SkyFury 05:28, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * no, but he could get impacted by extratropical Colin. But know I think it will be a plain old 40 knts dud. All of the stroms have been duds lately since Alex. YE 13:14, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Dear God, Colin's done. Most of the convection has just dissolved over the past few hours. It really is quite shocking. Conditions are really quite favorable right now but Colin continued to deteriorate. All that convection just evaporated in a matter of hours. Go figure. But the last several model runs all called this. I thought they were exaggerating but they were dead on. It makes me think that there may be something to their lack of enthusiasm for 93L and it makes me more strongly question the severe predictions for this season. If this season is going to even approach even the low end of the official forecast, we're gonna have to have one helluva September. -- SkyFury 07:49, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * TD now. YE 14:48, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's stationary, but some models bring it back to TS. The circulation around this thing is forcing another system south over Florida. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:43, August 8, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Southwest of Cape Verde
Some models predict development out of this, it looks like a well-defined ITCZ-enhanced wave. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * I dont think so. YE 14:57, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Looks very impressive now. YE 16:23, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * No mention on TWO. YE 02:47, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Invested, medium risk on the NHC. YE15:01, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Strangely, although there's a shaded danger area on the 1-2-3 rule graphic, it's displaced about 10 to 15 degrees north of this... either way, the models like this storm and it has a very good chance of getting named and even reaching hurricane strength, all very far away from land. --Patteroast 18:39, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Unless it duds on us... Atomic7732 18:52, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Lests hope it recurves, if it does not this is a serious threat to the US. This could be another Ike or Gustav. I am really getting concerned. YE 19:26, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * This may be offending, but you just evacuate. That's all you need to do. You go back, and you rebuild. Or, better, don't rebuild, and live somewhere else. Atomic7732 19:32, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * So far, models are predicting a strong TS with a track recurving to the east of Colin's track, so no threat for now. Darren 23 Edits 19:34, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * I am really hoping for this to recurve, is it me or it going to near the Lesser Antilles in about two days. YE 20:17, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Pretty much everything indicates that this will recurve WAY before getting close to land. Also, looks like the NHC fixed that 15 degree shift on their 1-2-3 rule graphic. :P --Patteroast 02:13, August 7, 2010 (UTC)

Given the conditions, I'm very surprised by how unenthusiastic the models are with this thing. The most aggressive models bring it to 60 knots and only begrudingly. Most of the models also seem to want to tear apart Colin before it even gets to Bermuda. -- SkyFury 05:37, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Up to high risk, 60%. --Patteroast 19:29, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * 70%!! Atomic7732 18:59, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * This system is developing nicely but its circulation is exposed. Reminds me of Melissa in 2007. This is what happens when you have a small or weak northeast-displaced Bermuda High. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:46, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * This looks remarkably similar to how Colin did. Still hanging onto 70% chance. --Patteroast 18:31, August 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hmmm... currently this storm has 35 mph winds, and somehow, GFDL predicts an 80 mph hurricane. Darren 23 Edits 18:39, August 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Down slightly from 70% to 60%. --Patteroast 13:05, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * This could become a strong subtropical TS if anything at all. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:17, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * The convection seems to be moving SW. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:20, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Back up to 70%. YE 16:23, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * The system is in two parts. The easterly component is stealing moisture from the Central Atlantic system and setting up a nice circulation, while the westerly component is a small burst of convection. There is very little dry air in the vicinity, as the stalling invest appears to have cleared out the SAL. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:29, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * 50% now. YE
 * 10% now. YE 23:44, August 11, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Northwest of Trinidad
Half of this system is over South America, but the 18z GFS predicts it will grab some moisture from the Southern and Central Caribbean before shooting up the Yucatan Channel for a landfall as a possible hurricane on the Texas-Louisiana border likely next Monday. This would be a bad scenario as parts of the Northern Gulf are 31C+ and only going to get warmer over the next six days. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:58, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Called it. I had my eye on that system yesterday. Atomic7732 00:44, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * I was about to mention that. I saw that GFS run, which had it as a non-major hurricane pointed right at southeast Louisiana. The 18Z NOGAPS run also develops it with a similar track, although less aggressively. On the 00Z run however, GFS doesn't do much with it, but I think that may be because its forecast track shifted further west into Central America. The 00Z NOGAPS run hasn't been released yet. Everybody's watching TD Four but conditions are favorable for this thing if it could ever get away from land. I hope this one gets invested so I can see what a the other models are saying and what track forecasts are out there. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. -- SkyFury 07:00, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think this is going to be a fish storm in the Pacific. YE 14:59, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * This could turn out like TD 2 did in the Gulf. Or, maybe just another one of GFS' ghost storms. However the long-range model has been predicting a Tehuantepec low, so stay tuned. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:05, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * up to 20%Atomic7732 16:28, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Invest'd. As you say it. NRL's got 25 kts. still 20%. Looks FAIR (not as in TCFA)... but, needs some better organization. Atomic7732 16:16, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Poof. YE 14:54, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Unpoof. Not on TWO, but closed circulation, why isn't this thing a TD yet? And not even on the TWO? Please! What is wrong with you NHC?!?! Atomic7732 16:15, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, how do you know that there is a LLCC? And TWO will be up in appx. 1 hr 45 min, and I doubt they would do a STWO. Darren 23 Edits 16:25, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * I don't know what to call it!!!!! Filled center? Full convection? idk!!!!! Atomic7732 16:52, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Looks interesting... quite well developed, but I don't know if it can get its act together before going over land. --Patteroast 18:35, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * say hello to Frank in about five days. YE 19:28, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Doubt it. Danielle/Earl has a better chance if it even survives the Yucatan (SHIPS strengthens it in the BOC), and its very improbable that it would even make it to the Pacific. Darren 23 Edits 19:32, August 6, 2010 (UTC)~
 * Frank? Colin's dying, and we have two invests? How the heck is Frank ready yet? Atomic7732 19:34, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Also, it looks like it has a chance at maybe avoiding the Yucutan. Atomic7732 19:39, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, how? The center is just to the north of Honduras, and present movement is W to WNW. Darren 23 Edits 19:46, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * This will be a tough call no doubt about it. If it organizes then we will have a cyclone similar to TD2. If it does not we could have another Estelle. BTW, when I mean Frank, I mean the next name on the Pacific. It should be noted Darren and I strongly disagree about this. No offense, but he just hates (he did not want Celia to become a MH for expample) the EPAC. Darren, I am so sorry if I misunderstood or offended you i am not trying to pick on you. Anyway, I think it will cross Guatemala, but I hope it does not happen. I do not want another Agatha. However, on its current track WNW it will strike Guatemala or Belize which is the southern Yucatan. YE 19:54, August 6, 2010 (UTC)

Looking at the models, it seems there's a fair chance of this system making it over the Gulf of Mexico for a bit, but I wouldn't expect much of it in the EPac... there's a lot of mountains between it and the Pacific. --Patteroast 20:46, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * (Re: YE) I pesonally like the EPac, cause I live in Arizona so. lol We get rain from them sometimes. Last time was monsoons that flourished to to interactions with Jimena. Before that... I think Javier. Maybe a few others that I don't remember. Atomic7732 20:57, August 6, 2010 (UTC)


 * BTW, You forgot Julio. It flooded out some places. YE 21:09, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * What year was that? Atomic7732 22:13, August 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * 2008. Here in Nevada, it caused serous school problems, we were forced to wait in the gym before the bus came. We alos go rain from Lowell. YE 00:03, August 7, 2010 (UTC)


 * It's basically gone now after crossing the Yucatan. Trying to re-develop in the BoC but lost most of its convection. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC)

94L.Invest
What have we got here? A frontal convective system forced south by drier air from the Carolinas to the Bahamas, and now moving SSW over the Gulf Stream. Models bring it across Florida and into the Gulf, but shear is high, so we could have a subtropical storm at the most. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC) AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS APPROACHING THE SYSTEM AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING...AND IF SO...WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. Sounds interesting. This is a good storm. Looks like when Dianmu was 05W. So, I'm thinking next advisory (300 UTC) should be Five. Atomic7732 23:30, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Meduim risk, now. Here comes the basins. YE 18:21, August 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hey, something came from this. It sure didn't look like much for a while there. --Patteroast 18:31, August 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Up to high risk, 60%! --Patteroast 13:04, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's setting up a nice circulation, and it has good vorticity and shear of 5 kts and falling. Only a little dry air to contend with, other than that, it's got 31C+ water that's still getting warmer. A track similar to Bonnie is forecast, but not much unlike Katrina either. Models predict a TS, but a few outliers bring it up to a hurricane. We'll see what it does. Interestingly, I had a dream about a tropical disturbance that started out much like this one did: moisture moving south from Ontario and Quebec, becoming a frontal convective system, drifting over the Gulf Stream against its flow and energizing over its warm waters, convection moving south over Florida, organizing, then tapping warm water from the Florida Straits before setting up a circulation over the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico, then drifting northwest and undergoing rapid intensification. This could potentially signal the rise to an active season. EPac could become quite active as well. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:24, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * This invest reminds me of Rita more than Katrina, it looks like it will head more west than north as of now, and when (Danielle) comes, she could pack an aufly painful punch for the Gulf coast, anywhere from Louisiana to northern Mexico. The oil spill is just north of this invest, and it will probrably miss it altogether, but it will probrably still delay BP's efforts to fully contain it. Either way, stay tuned, everyone. This could be a very serious threat to the U.S. Gulf coast, and I don't like the way it looks right now. Ryan1000 16:40, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * This does not seem like a major storm a weak cat 1 landfall at most. Dont forget we still have the shear that gave Bonnie a heart attack. However, the shear has weakened somewhat. YE 16:48, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * 70% now. YE 17:52, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * What shear? The shear is 5 kt right now and still falling. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:34, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * YE, Bonnie had an upper-level low right next to her when she formed, and that low pretty much tore her apart. There is no upper low by this invest, so it's gonna have a much easier time in the Gulf than Bonnie did. Still, stay tuned everyone. This could be a very serious storm. Ryan1000 20:10, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * While the storm was crossing the Florida Straits it had an ULL following it to its west. Currently the system is disorganized but looks close to TD. It's basically going to ride the Loop Current upstream and create its own warm temperature anomalies that it will feed off of while it has deep warm waters on its left and waters up to 3C warmer than 2005's SSTs on its right. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:24, August 10, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Deperession Five
There we go! #5 is on our hands, and it's moving northwest towards the gulf coast. Keep an eye on this one, everyone, its heading to the coast in the next 3 or 4 days. And we have some bad news, too, its hundreds of miles away from the Mississippi River mouth, and it is only moving at 6 MPH! We have a big problem, everyone. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 23:56, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Yup, it's got LOTSA time to strengthen... It's at the point near where Katrina re formed... Batten down the hatches! This could be bad! Atomic7732 00:15, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict)NHC's only predicting a TS, but with SSTs up to 32C and a slow movement in an initial track similar to Katrina anything can happen. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:19, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think the NHC better revise their forecast on just 45-50 mph; at the speed it's going on, it'll take more like a week, not two days, to reach the Gulf coast. And based on how it's looking, it will not show signs of rocketing up to 15-20 mph in the near future, it'll stay at that 6 mph for some time. Brace yourselves, New Orleans, this one's comming right at you! Ryan1000 00:44, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * I disagree, this will only reach LA in about 48 to 72 hours. I say 50 mph peak, but this could be conservative. YE 02:24, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * 48 to 72 hours could be all the time (Danielle) needs to become as much as a category 2 or 3 hurricane. And what's worse, this storm isn't passing by the mouth of the Mississippi, but rather heading straight into it. Hurricane Felix in 1995 threatened to ram North Carolina head-on as well, but turned away before making landfall. This one looks rather decent for a depression and, IMO, it's showing signs of rapid intensification. SkyFury, Astro, YE, stay with me, this thing could get pretty ugly. Ryan1000 03:09, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * I seriously, seriously, seriously doubt that this storm would even reach 65 mph, much less MH intensity. The environment is just not favorable enough to rapidly strengthen it. And can you please tell me what signs or RI can you see? All I see is this weak, disorganized depression which will take a while to become a TS.Darren 23 Edits 04:21, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * It will likely turn out to be another epic fail. YE 12:58, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * Yea, it's like Bonnie. Even without an upper low by this storm, it might not even become Danielle, and probrably will suffer the same fate as Bonnie did. This is exactly what happened to Ana and Erica last year; they followed similar tracks, but died in the same area-Hispaniola. I think we might have many other storms like this in the season. It's August 11; we didn't even get a major hurricane yet, and we probrably won't at the rate we're going. There aren't any other interesting storms right now in the Atlantic, and I wouldn't be suprised if we don't have a named storm in the next week or two(excluding this storm). Forget any chances of becoming a major storm, this is the third fail so far this season. Ryan1000 14:43, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * Another dud, what a shocker. Still waiting for the Season of Doom everybody's predicting. And I don't expect big things from 93L either. The great prognosticators remain convinced that shear conditions are going to relax. They have yet to do so. I'm not sure they will. We'll see. -- SkyFury 16:00, August 11, 2010 (UTC)


 * I agree, with you Eric, this will be another dud. I fell so stupid for starting a project sandbox on Wikipedia now. . The EPAC is staring to get slightly more active, but that is storm less right now. YE 16:19, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * The depression is very disorganised, it's shifted to the NW and NHC now barely brings it up to a TS. However, a new circulation could yet develop, and this thing could thereby stall over warm waters. Unless this is a season like 1992 where the first storm was a monster and all the other ones were duds, unlikely considering this season is a La Nina, everyone is best advised not to let their guard down. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:34, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * Agreed. This season is a dud-season as of right now, but we still could get something nasty out there. Andrew didn't get rollin' untill the 23-24th of August, and it's only the 11th now. We can't let our guard down; remember, the peak of 2010 is a month away, so we have plenty of time for us to pull a 1992, or worse yet, a 2004(though that seems a little unlikely now). This season has plenty of time. We just have to be patient. This season could still be slightly above average; however, i'm thinking it'll only be 11-12, 3-6, and 1-2 for the Atlantic's final stats. Ryan1000 18:33, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * Poof. Last advisory issued. Wierd storm. Two storms this year died in the Gulf. Bonnie had a heart attack here, and TD 5 had a stroke here. YE 20:45, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * Man, the Gulf looks like November more than August right now. The Gulf has been a death zone for two storms this year; typically in August, the Gulf is supposed to be very conducive for development, but this year is the exact opposite of that. Hurricane Gustav also suffered in the Gulf two years ago; when the powerful 155 mph storm tore across western Cuba, it was forecast to reach category 5 briefly and hit the gulf coast as a powerful major hurricane, but instead weakened to a category 2 storm when it made landfall in Louisiana. I don't know why the gulf is such a death zone right now; the oil spill is getting some luck from this season, but efforts to contain it are being delayed with every Gulf storm-weak or strong. Weird. If the Gulf can manage to say NO to any other storms this season, then that means the only area to watch for danger is the eastern seaboard of the U.S, from Key West, Florida to Eastport, Maine. Ryan1000 01:22, August 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wow... It stalled just inland, and is managing to be either tropical, or a MCV. Either way, if it would have been in water... and not much shear... Atomic7732 14:30, August 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's now re-emerging off the shore of Louisiana, and NHC gives it a 20% chance of re-development. It could even become a tropical storm before it hits Louisiana again and models including GFS predict re-development. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:59, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Holy crud, after this storm makes landfall again according to GFS, it just stalls over the souhteastern US before emerging into the Gulf Stream again and being torn apart by another Cape Verde Low heading for New York. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:01, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * 30% now. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * 50%. YE Tropical Cyclone  00:30, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * It now has 50 kt winds, and could make landfall in Louisiana or Texas. Plenty of 31C waters for it to consume, 5 kt shear, and a huge upper-level anticyclone. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:07, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * What?!? How the?!?atomic 77 32 01:31, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's moved ashore and dissipated. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:57, August 17, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Eastern Caribbean
An area of convection, seems to have a bit of rotation in it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: South of Hispanola
Two significant waves, one south of 93L and another one west of Cape Verde. This could be our next invest. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:27, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * 10% on NHC. YE 17:53, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * This system is quickly moving directly into the Caribbean. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:26, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's also got a strong upper-level anticyclone that's trying to catch up! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:19, August 11, 2010


 * (UTC)


 * I can't feel entirely confident about this one; this storm isn't so much right now, i'm thinking it will be just another fail, like Bonnie, Colin, and what could be Danielle. The Atlantic is still dead right now. Ryan1000 14:48, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * 2% now. YE 23:43, August 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * AKA, it's yet another fail. Ryan1000 01:13, August 12, 2010 (UTC)


 * Hmm...perhaps I spoke too soon. It's in the Carribean right now, and it looks like it wants to come back to us. Looks like it could redevelop. Don't let your guard down, everyone. Stay tuned. It wants to redevelop where it is. Ryan1000 15:32, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * C'mon go to the EPAC and develop there. YE Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:47, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * 10%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:24, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * This appears to be the eastern portion of the Atlantic lows. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 02:20, August 18, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Cape Verde
GFS and several other models develop this. GFS brings this to a major hurricane in 180 hours, and from there brings it offshore the East coast and slams it into Nova Scotia. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:59, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * GFS just can't decide where to go with this potential Cape Verde hurricane. One run it sends it into Florida, and in another run it hits North Carolina, Long Island, Nova Scotia, or just clips Newfoundland. Either way, this could be a dangerous storm, and another storm is consistently predicted by GFS to follow after it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:53, August 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's because it's so far in the future, it's a chaotic system, a small change can make a large difference. We'll just have to keep an eye out on this storm. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 14:29, August 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's way too early to tell, but the best possible scenario is it pulls a Bill or Erica (1997) and never really affects land at all. We don't want it to be bad, but that wave looks pretty ominous to me. This is just what most of the Cape Verde greats looked like when they left Africa - not all, but most. Stay tuned, everyone. If it turns out to be an epic fail like Colin was, great. Just great. Ryan1000 20:13, August 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * Since when do Cape Verdes make it to STS strength only? Here comes an epic fail. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 14:40, August 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Again, a fail. It will run into a trough in front of the islands in the next 4-5 days and get torn up like Colin was. And we're waiting... Ryan1000 14:50, August 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * 20%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:14, August 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * YE, the 20% is still a fail. It will not be signifigant by any means, and I can't look forward to this becoming anything monstrous. The real Cape Verde season hasn't come, and likely won't in the near future, like say, the next week. By the time the heart of 2010 pours in, we will get rollin' for real. Ryan1000 00:47, August 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ryan, you have got to realize that those numbers don't mean anything yet except the chance for formation in the next 48 hours. Just because it's at 20% doesn't mean that it will be a fail. And I do believe we will see our first major out of this storm, or at least a hurricane. Maybe you can't see anything big happening, but models have been consistently doing so. The next two weeks are expected to ramp up significanly, and this storm should be the start. If not, there are many more tropical waves in Africa waiting to exit. We have got to get rid of the fail or bust attitude, it's not really that helpful. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:09, August 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * The GFS is just going bonkers with this thing. It makes it like this monster Cat 5 in seven days. I would expect this out of CMC, not GFS. Most of the models develop it, but the GFS has just lost its mind. I'd be interested to see what the GFDL and HWRF think of it. Also interesting that the models now kind of stall it out for the first few days before moving it northwestward. -- SkyFury 07:43, August 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * I'm sorry if I was upseting you by any big means, Darren; it's just that i'm looking at the satellite imagery right now and I see a powerful upper-level low right by the islands. If this wave runs into that low, which I personally see happening in the next 4 days or so, it will get torn apart, or at least pulled out to sea, never to affect land. But then again, you're right, too, this is only the first of what will be many waves coming off of Africa's "Cape Vede express". I can't see this one really becoming much, but there's plenty more where this one will come from. We'll just have to wait and see what happens with this storm, or any future storms in the Atlantic season. Ryan1000 18:05, August 20, 2010 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
40%. Invest'd. Surprised? see the EPAC and what has happened there. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:18, August 20, 2010 (UTC)


 * Hmmm, it does seem to be a fish, but SHIPS has it going to 105 mph, and I believe that to be an underestimate. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:40, August 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * Gone! Party! This season is a bust!. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:22, August 21, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Uh, not so fast! It's predicted to be a cat. 2, but GFS brings it near Bermuda, and ECWMF brings it farther west. Track looking a lot like Bill 2009, but at this moment it may be too early to tell. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:00, August 21, 2010 (UTC)


 * Here's my prediction for this storm. Because the SST's are way, way above normal because of La Nina, Rapid, or explosive intensification is not out of the question, but if it stays weak, it could go further west. I think Bermuda and Newfoundland are not out of the woods from this, probably powerful storm. (Yes EPAC lovers, I think future-Danielle will be stronger than future-Frank) <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:47, August 22, 2010 (UTC)


 * This is weird, the main system is decoupling, meaning the lower-level circulation is separating from the upper-level convection. The spin formerly over Cape Verde is moving toward the storm, and now a second wave is following closely behind and could interact with this system. This will be interesting to watch. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:20, August 22, 2010 (UTC)

Here it is. #6 is out, and it could become Danielle rather soon. It isn't expected to hit the U.S, but Bermuda better watch out ~4 days from now, cat. 2 expected. Ryan1000 16:38, August 22, 2010 (UTC)


 * Actually, there's a chance it actually might skirt or make landfall in the US, according to some models. So people in the Canadian Maritimes, Bermuda, and the US East Coast are still in the big danger zone as its very far out. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:32, August 22, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Danielle
Hello, Danielle. We've been waiting. --Patteroast 21:14, August 22, 2010 (UTC)


 * Man, Danielle is one sad excuse for a tropical storm right now. And Darren, please tell me what areas are in the "Danger Zone" from Danielle? Are you sure those models are right? All I see is this weak, disorganized storm that's moving northwest, and it's being absorbed into the upper-level low I was talking about above. Here comes fail #3 so far this year. Ryan1000 22:22, August 22, 2010 (UTC)

Official Atlantic prediction
NHC still predicts active hurricane season. Atomic7732 03:04, August 6, 2010 (UTC)

Dead basin thing
I don't have a clue why all of you are like, "Why are there so many duds?". While doing a classification of hurricane tracks, I noticed on all seasons that had a timeline, they all started booming up near early or mid August. It seems like what happens is, a few storms pop up... then it starts going in August till September... Then slows down in October... And dwindles off by November. Maybe it was because Alex was a cat 2 (which made Bonnie and Colin seem like duds), and because the EPac started booming earlier and then abruptly stopped. I don't know, and I really would like to. Atomic7732 01:41, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * The only year I can remember where people weren't saying things were dead over and over was 2005 in the Atlantic. It doesn't seem like it can be helped. --Patteroast 02:16, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Lol hahaha! I see. Atomic7732 02:39, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * La Nina seasons are usually late activity starters, actually, I am not at all surprised we still at Colin. The surprising thing about Colin is that it formed during Downward MJO, so if storms can form during that, what would this season bring? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 03:51, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * La Nina can be fickle. Most active years start kicking it up a notch right about now. 2004's Charley formed August 10 so we did get to the 'C' storm first but our 'C' is gonna be a lot less interesting than Charley. In the last La Nina (2008), we'd had five storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane by this point in the season, including Dolly, which hit south Texas as a Cat 2 on July 23. I still think this season's total is gonna be on the low end of the official forecast. Ever since Alex, the worldwide tropics have been quiet as a graveyard. I've never seen the West Pacific as dead as it's been, but they did pretty much have all the fun in July with two 75 kt typhoons. As I've said before, the epic silence in the Pacific does not bode well for the Atlantic. -- SkyFury 05:55, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * I'm very surprised we've only had 3 storms in the WPac. The EPac has been the most active NHEM basin this year! I have a feeling this years Atlantic is gonna be as weird, if not weirder than 2009's. Atomic7732 06:08, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Colin is a dud like ever other storms since Alex. Rick on the other hand, is probably the best example of an epcic win. Extremely cold cloud tops, eye in a perfect circle, perfectly symmetrical, perfectly round, outflow even and extremely impressive on all quadrants. i agree,d with 78 the active cycle has ended or ending. But again, this is the time of year we get active, about one year ago the EPAC exploded. Storms just formed one after another after another. The ALT got active on August 15. YE 14:03, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think people are calling this basin dead because we were expecting a 2005-type season. Well, this year, we are probably still gonna get the predicted numbers, like CSU's 18 and NOAA's average of 17. We should see a bunch of storms in a few weeks because as I said earlier, we are currently in downward MJO. EPAC is currently upward, and thats probably why you saw Estelle. The point is, just because this basin has been average so far, doesn't mean its dead at all. Remember, 16 storms is normal for EPAC, so don't also think EPAC will have an above average season (last year was near normal, to give you some prespective). One more thing, the chances for a below normal season in ATL is 0% according to TSR and NOAA. There is about a 90% chance of an active season, and the predicted ACE numbers are leaning towards a hyperactive season, so don't count ATL out yet. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:28, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Actually, last year's PHS was above normal (13.4 vs. 17, 3, vs. 6). Stop this, is it not going to be a hyperactive season, period, just 11 named storms. YE 20:39, August 7, 2010 (UTC)


 * 1- This states that last year was near normal. #2- I never said it was, I just said forecasters are leaning towards it. #3- Most, if not all indications lead to an above normal season, and as I said, its just early August. I'm just trying to make sure people don't get their guard down. I will be happy if this season will not be destructive, but claiming that this season will be a bust with all the evidence presented is outrageous. I'm not saying its not possible that this season will be a bust, but I'm just trying to put some sense into some people who claim this basin is dead. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:14, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * 1. It depends which average you use. 2. Ok 3. we just slightly below average so thats why i predcit 11 named storms. BTW, the EPAC will be similar (maybe identical) to 2004. YE

Re to #1- Um, ok, but that was a credible and direct source which disagrees whith you, and would you please give me a link to your average? Re to #2- [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/tws/MIATWSAT_jul.shtml? Please check all your facts]. And 1 more thing, 2004 was El Nino, and is not a good analogue, and coincidences do happen. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:59, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, it is in the EPAC book which could be downloaded here. it gives both averages 1971-2006 and 1949-2006. I like to use the 1949 one. Actually, many people are comparing this year to 2004 in both basins. YE 23:20, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * 2 people does not count as many BTW :P Also, both can be used, but the latest one is always better because it is the most accurate total average.
 * The only reason I'm thinking the basins are dead is, the atlantic has had no interest since Alex - and it's August. The Eastern Pacific has had their hot streak in June with the record highest ACE for that month, but followed that up by being the first season in 44 years with no tropical storms in July, and Estelle isn't so interesting either. The West Pacific had only THREE named storms so far - 2009 was much worse at this time of their year. I don't think that this season is dead, but worldwide, this season is actually less active than, say last year. The East Pacific is two storms ahead of the West Pacific (I only count JMA named storms), and the Atlantic ties the basin as of now.At this rate August won't look any different than July, and I just don't see anything forming in the basins in the next week or so, and I don't give that newly - named West Pacific PAGASA named storm much of a chance either. What I mentined last year was probrably right, we are in another deadened basin period like 1977 was. I'm actually shocked, at this time. I just can't look forward to NOAA's predictions coming true, this year isn't anywhere close to active - 2009 was well ahead of this, exept in the Atlantic. However, I can't assume I'll be right on this dead streak here. 2004 and 1988 didn't start until August and everyone knows how well they went. Even if we aren't active, it doesn't mean we won't be notable. 1992, 1983, and 1930 were three of the least active, yet most notable, atlantic seasons on record. It took just Hurricane Andrew to turn 1992 from a season of nothing to a season of something. 1983 was the 4th or 3rd least active season on record (excluding ties), but Hurricane Alicia made the billion $ mark in Texas, and still remains the most recent major hurricane to hit Galveston/Houston, Although Hurricane Ike certainly had the impacts of one, and for a season with just two storms (1930), the Dominican Republic hurricane really made 1930 a notable season. I guess a saying that should be considered in the Atlantic is: don't judge June or July, judge the peak of the season, okaye?. Ryan1000 02:21, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, worldwide, this is gonna be a down year, but that's because the Pacific usually accounts for the bulk of the activity. As far as the Atlantic is concerned, this season so far is actually reminding me a bit of 2007: a lot of snub storms but when they do intensify, look out. That's kind of what I'm expecting to see, with maybe a couple of Cat 2s sprinkled in. It's still too early to rule out the official forecast verifying. 1999 had five Cat 4s, the first of which wasn't named until August 19. 1985, which saw six hurricanes make landfall in the US, didn't get to the 'C' storm until August 11. That said, the ATL, with apologies to 93L, doesn't exactly seem primed to explode. The next two weeks will give us a good indication of what kind of season we're looking at. If it doesn't get noticably livelier out there by August 20, I think it'll be extremely unlikely that this season exceeds 12 storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. And remember what Andrew taught us: it only takes one bad hurricane to make it a bad season. 1992 had just six storms, but one caused over $20 billion in damage. -- SkyFury 08:15, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Sky, I was sorta expecting a 2007 AHS-type year as well. I know what got us Estelle in the EPAC an anticyclone, and whats been shearing all the invests there is a trough. That trough is staring to lift, so we can get some storms. Last year around, this time the EPAC literally exploded. YE 13:39, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I agree with you, SkyFury. We must wait until the heart of the season comes until we draw conclusions. If the next three or four weeks go dormant, by then i'm gonna be thinking there's something wrong with the tropics. That's not so likely, but if it does happen, then we are on a dead streak season. Only time will tell for the season. We shouldn't continue this discussion until we don't get any storms for some time. By then, we can pull up some record-dead records for the season, both here and worldwide. Ryan1000 15:50, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * West Pacific now has had five named storms and eleven depressions. The longer that a basin holds without any activity, the more that its waters will heat up. I expect a surge in activity in the Western Hemisphere around mid-to-late August. Some forecasts are predicting a strong La Nina lower than -3.0C, which would make it like 1998 in terms of the rapid fall from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina. Upward MJO could also get into the Atlantic in a few weeks. Here are my own revised predictions for Northern Hemisphere seasons this year:


 * West Pacific: 42 depressions, 25 named storms, 14 typhoons, 7 "major" typhoons, 1 cat. 5, $6 billion in damage.
 * Central Pacific: 2 depressions, 1 named storm, 1 hurricane, no major hurricanes, no damage.
 * East Pacific: 17 depressions, 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, 2 cat. 5s, $4 billion in damage.
 * Atlantic: 19 depressions, 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, 2 cat. 5s, $60 billion in damage.
 * North Indian: 11 depressions, 5 named storms, 3 hurricane-strength severe cyclonic storms, 2 "major"-strength very severe cyclonic storms, no cat. 5, $3 billion in damage.


 * 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:43, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Speaking of predictions... I'll make mine for the Atlantic now...
 * 15 storms (TD's included), 9 hurricanes, 3 major. I haven't predicted much, so it just my guess. Atomic7732 21:23, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Considering how weve only had 3 deps so far i think 11 deps in total for the NIO wont happen. However if youre NS prediction came true it would be the most active season in terms of NS since names were introduced, and the most amount of NS since 2000.JasonRees 00:58, August 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * I will hold off on making my final predictions for this season until the end of August. This has been the slowest start in the West Pacific since 1998, when the first named storm didn't form until July 8 and the first typhoon didn't form until August 3 (I'm pretty sure that's a record). If you remember, the Atlantic wasn't so quiet that year. When the Pacific is quiet, 9 times out of 10, the Atlantic is active and usually destructive. In 1998, Georges killed 600 people and Mitch killed over 18,000 and was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since the Revolutionary War. -- SkyFury 04:03, August 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * I believe we can't really assume anything about us being so quiet right now; that 1008 mbar low in the Keys looks pretty ominous to me. I would think that the AHS will have 13 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 majors, with zero or one category 5(s), only slightly above average. About damages? 60 billion seems a little too high for an AHS, Astro. At best I would think that the AHS would have 20 to 30 billion in damage, but it's very hard for a season to make over 40 billion in damage alone, and only 2004, 2005, and 2008 have done that. I do think this season will be destructive to some extent, but not "over 60 billion dollars" destructive. I think we should keep an eye on that Gulf low, however. Ryan1000 16:34, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ok, I have raised my ALT prediction to 12-6-3. However, i don think we will see many catastrophic storms this year, though we might have an Ida-type storm or two this year. However, I think the damages will be under $10 billion ( know people on WU call me wishcasters and downcasters for this, but I have a good accuracy). YE
 * Ok, I have raised my ALT prediction to 12-6-3. However, i don think we will see many catastrophic storms this year, though we might have an Ida-type storm or two this year. However, I think the damages will be under $10 billion ( know people on WU call me wishcasters and downcasters for this, but I have a good accuracy). YE

I do believe that ATL will eventually become more active, and here are my predictions for the basins (NS-Cane-MH-C5): And YE, I think there is a good reason they call you that. I am not saying that is 100% impossible, but a near normal/below normal season forecast is wishful thinking and not backed by current evidence, hence thats why they call you that. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:51, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * WPAC: 22-12-6-1
 * EPAC: 13-6-4-1
 * ATL: 16-8-4-0


 * Then why are all the storms these year since Alex have been epic fails. YE 17:12, August 10, 2010 (UTC)

Like I said, YE, don't judge June or July, judge the peak of the season, okaye? June/July aren't supposed to be active; 2002 only had 12 total storms, 8 of which were in September. 2004 had 15 storms, 8 of them in August. Give the basin time. It'll get rollin' at some point. It slowly rises from June to July, skyrockets in August, peaks at september 10, then downturns in October; there is a brief secondary peak by October 19 when the East Pacific monsoon trough extends into the Carribean, and lastly, slows down to the end of November. I think this season will be somewhat destructive, but nowhere close to 2008, even. Just be patient, everyone; this season will get rolling by late August into September. Now is not the time to let up, but NOAA's predictions aren't looking so true, I agree. Ryan1000 23:48, August 10, 2010 (UTC)


 * GFS is forecasting something nasty to come off Africa in five days. Multiple models also forecast something to form in the northern Gulf around the 4-5 day mark. -- SkyFury 06:36, August 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * Guess what, 91E has died. Another epic fail. YE 12:49, August 13, 2010 (UTC)


 * Does anyone else think that the silence in the Atlantic is getting rather ominous? All the models whose long range forecast I have access to develop something big off Africa in 3-4 days (although GFS and NOGAPS appear to take it out to sea). They also all develop something out of the remnants of TD 5 in the northern Gulf in about 2-3 days. Things may be about to get a little interesting. -- SkyFury 06:16, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * I have seen the GFS predicting two fishes next week. However, I have a felling they are going to epic fails an get torn apart by upper-level low. I also cant see ex-Five regenerating in the Gulf. YE 14:23, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Don't count your epic fails before they hatch. The entire Northern Hemisphere is quiet and since most of the heat is focused on the Atlantic, when the MJO gets back here we can expect an absolute explosion of activity. The second storm on GFS doesn't look like a fail, in fact it might even head into the Carolinas or New England and end up like a Hugo or a Floyd. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:04, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think that silence is rather ominous to me, but after all of the epic fails we've had (Bonnie, Colin, and #5), I just can't see this season producing a monster storm like Andrew or Hugo. The conditions in the open tropical Atlantic are no different, or not a lot different, than when Colin was out there now. From all of the deadened activity weve had so far, I don't see anything big going on out there, or coming out there. We're halfway through August and the tropics still look like a wasteland. I don't think we'll pull a 1992 or 1988; this season will be a dead one, just like it was last year. Ryan1000 17:31, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * I still think ATL will be active and will produce ~15 storms because it is La Nina. People are saying that this season is a bust because they think that ATL has been below average. Well, guess what, it is very near average. And Ryan, last year was a strong El Nino, and this year is a La Nina, and has a potential for a very strong La Nina. The basin is not dead yet, and anything is possible. This season has the capabilities of potentially producing an extremely dangerous hurricane, it just takes conditions to align right. Do not let your guard down, and if some Cape-Verde type Major Hurricanes come along, well, that would be no surprise. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 18:04, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Daren, no. In fact, I am not 100% convinced that there is a a La Nina. we are below the 1995-20009 average of 14 named storms. Again, we will end up being 12-6-3 IMO, and I think my prediction is generous. But again the activity cycle is ending. You might want to check out my blog and do not call me crazy, I disagree with experts 100%. It should be noted that there is a similar dissipation at Strom2k. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:04, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Then please see the definition of La Nina, and all 4 Nino regions indicate La Nina. And No, we are at average. The Average is 11-6-2 per last year's TWS.. And what evidence do you have? Give me credible expert evidence, as no offence, clearly, you are not an expert. If you disagree with experts, then you better have a very, very good argument against the expert consensus. I'm sorry, but what your're saying cannot be taken with credit. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:57, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, clam down. All I am saying is the IMO we are in a weak El Nino. i have the right to my opinon. But again, SST's suggest otherwise saying that there is a weak to moderate La Nina. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:21, August 15, 2010 (UTC)

YE, it's hard enough for guys with doctorates to figure out ENSO. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you're somewhat short of a doctorate in meteorology. I often disagree with season predictions but when it comes to ENSO, I defer to the experts. Ryan, for the record, there were only six storms in 1992 (seven if you count STS 1) and only one major hurricane. That one major hurricane just happened to cause $26 bil in damage. While I don't think this will be a "dead year," I do think 18 storms is a little aggressive. Forecasters have warned that synoptic scale patterns look like they could be about to change with a more stable Azores High providing a lower-shear environment over the open Atlantic. -- SkyFury 05:00, August 16, 2010 (UTC)


 * I still think this season will be less active than what it was forecast; even 15 storms seems a little nasty for the AHS now. I still think it will be 12-6-3, but as you mentioned, Sky, it just takes only one bad storm to make it a bad season. Activity and notability have no direct correlation, exept in a few years like 2005. 1887 was one of the most active seasons on record, but there were hardly any signifigant storms in that season. And 1992 was one of the least active seasons, but one of the most notable, too. All in all, I do think this will be a slightly above average, though less than forecast, season, but I completly agree with the fact that it just takes one bad storm to make a season memorable for a long time to come. TD 5 looks like it wants to make a comeback, but I highly doubt it will turn into a monster for the gulf coast; category 1 or 2 is what I would call "exeptional" for that storm. It's August 16, and we still haven't had any ominous areas of development in the Atlantic, let alone the rest of the northern hemisphere. In short, this season will probrably not get to 20 storms, but still can produce at least one bad storm. We should wait for another 2 or 3 weeks until we really come into the heart of the season. By then, we could have some trouble out there. It wouldn't surprise me if we get one or two more August storms, but the most active August on record was 2004, with 8 storms in that year's August. We will NOT get 7 more named storms in the last two weeks in this August. 2002 and 2007 tie for the most active September, but all of the September storms in '07 were short-lived epic fails, exept for Felix.(Humberto, and Lorenzo weren't very signifigant other than the fact of how fast they boomed up). I can't assume this September could tie 2002 and 2007, but it will not have enough storms to catch up to 2005. We can still get just one bad storm this year, but we won't have a 2005-like season. My only fear for this season is we will have an inactive season for the most part, so people on the Gulf and east coasts will let their guard down, but then we get just one bad storm that catches them off guard and causes a great number of damages and deaths. I hope no bad storms form during this season; I mean, no one wants a bad storm to come, but I fear there will be something coming. Only time will tell what will happen this year.And by the way, Darren, not all La Nina events signify a bad season. 2007 was a La Nina, but it wasn't that bad of a season; the following year was far more destructive and deadly. 1973 was also a La Nina, but it wasn't much of a season in the Atlantic. We probrably will heat up by September, but we are coming to the end of the 1995-now hot streak in the Atlantic. When this active period ends, the Pacific will start rollin' for some time. Ryan1000 14:47, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * The question is when will the activity cycle end? As side note, the SST in the EPAC are expected be a little cooler in the ATL so expect 10 2009 type years. Here is my basin prediction

ATL 12-6-3-0

EPAC 12-6-4-1

WPAC 25-10-6-3

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:24, August 16, 2010 (UTC)


 * Yes, 2007 was La Nina, and yes, it was below average. But 2004 is El Nino, but was hyperactive. It is true that La Nina conditions don't guarantee an active season. And about the 2005 thing, when did experts say that? No one was expecting a 2005-type season, and it is impossible as 2005 had absolute perfect conditions. But, they did and still do predict an active season, and if you think that you can just disagree with their statements and say "I think this season will be a bust" is absolutely wrong (I'm not talking about you Ryan, I'm talking to anyone who has said this statement). They went to college studying this, and I expect most of us here did not. Yes, some forecasts have been way off, but stating that these will is just absurd. You don't now that. I know for a fact that people in the meteorological society have been angry at the people bustcasters right now. The public were angry at them for "scaring them" because of the ominous forecast, but the real dangers are the people who spread news that this season will be a bust. So I do suggest that this topic should stop, and we should wait until the end of September. And to the 2nd part: we are in moderate La Nina, and I'm expecting a long-lasting La Nina that will extend to next year and maybe until May/June/July, so don't count on the activity cycle to end just yet. And I really wan't a source on the end of the activity cycle? Did experts expect the activity cycle in 1995 to start? No. Can we predict it with accuracy? Absolutely not. So, I do not think the activity cycle will end within the next 2 years. If it does, great, no more 2005's. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:34, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * No, this season is a bust. SINCE WHEN DO STORMS DIE IN THE GULF. I am not expect no more than a weak La Nina and that is if we are even a weak La Nina. This is not Wikipedia, we dont need source for every stupid fact. Also, 2004 was not hyperactive, unless you mean ACE. If you are asking for a source, give me a source that says the that there are angry because this season is a bust thus far. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:58, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * We are already in moderate La Nina. And I never said people were angry this season has been a bust, people are angry because of the high forecast numbers and as a result scaring them. And we do need a source if we are making statements to make them credible. And Bonnie died because it speeded up to the ULL, Five died because of poor organization, Two didn't become a TS because of Alex. Those are the explanations. And hyperactiveness is determined by ACE, and 2004 is in the top 10. Happy? And as I said, earlier, I believe this topic should stop, because of the reasons I said earlier. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 18:29, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * The question is are the ULL's are going to go bye-by. Also, how can a storm die because of poor organization? I still say but consertivly 12-6-3 which is not all that inactive at all. We could have a Gustav-type storm. And what in the heck is happening to the EPAC. They make high predilections, so that people prepare. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:50, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * If nothing else in teh EPAC forms this month, shut up about the Atlantic please? lol SOmething would be wrong.<font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 22:32, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, there is nothing wrong with EPAC, it's just that conditions aren't favorable there because of La Nina. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:20, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, I hate to break it to you, but despite what you're thinking about the heart being three weeks away, chances are, from where we are now, we won't have even a 2008 type-season; however, I completly agree with your point. It's not the forecaster's fault that they made the very active, scary prediction, it's when all these other people come in and say we'll be dead for good that kills the preperations people make for the season. Truth is, we probrably will be less active than forecast, it's just that, these people think we will have a completly dead season. SkyFury and I mentioned that it doesn't take an active season to get a notable season. Andrew permanently taught us that lesson. Every storm other than Andrew was an epic fail in 1992, but when he came along, he was at the time the costliest hurricane in U.S. history. I do not think we will get the forecasts NOAA was predicting, but I never said we won't get any notable storms this year. I'm fearing something big is lurking in the tropics this season, and no one should let their guard down just because it's mid-August. September, October, and November are yet to come, and all three months are capable of producing severe hurricanes. We shouldn't assume that this season will be dead until the season actually ends. Activity and notability rarely have any direct correlation; some exeptions are '05', '04', and '08. We need to be patient for the time being, as this season is far from over. About the active hurricane cycle, Darren? It had begun in 1995, and I had heard from climate experts that they were expecting it to last for 15-20 years from 1995, so it will probrably close up anytime from this year to 5 years from now in 2015. The reason why the mid to late 1970's, 1980's, and early 1990's were quiet was because the Cape Verde season in Africa basically shut down. From the 1970's to 1987, there was a severe drought over the Saharan desert, which sent a lot of dry air to stop any African waves from developing in that time period (The inactivity would continue until 1994 due to continued El nino events), but that drought killed all the hurricane seasons in the Atlantic ocean, and meant booming business for the Pacific ocean. From 1970 to 1994, exactly 9 major hurricanes made landfall in the United States:Celia, Carmen, Eloise, Frederic, Allen, Alicia, Elena, Hugo, and Andrew, but from 1995 until now, we have had Opal, Fran, Bret, Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma-10 U.S. landfalling major hurricanes in 15 years-that averages to 2 every 3 years, but from 1970 to 1994, we had an average of one major hurricane every 2 years. One half vs. two-thirds. It's a big thing, and we might get another one of these dead periods in the near future. Also of note, the total number of hurricanes to hit the U.S. in the 1970 to 1994 period was 29 (6 from 1985 alone), but as of now, we have had 25 from '95 onward (forgive me if i'm off by one or so), but still, that is quite remarkable. Ryan1000 02:05, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * The conditions of the EPAC have still not been explain, arent post-El Nino EPAC suppose to be years interesting. i agree ,t will be LESS ACTIVE in the forecast, but not saying we could have a Gustav type storm. I have a felling we will have a rapid flip to EL Nino in a year or so, but the SST's are expected to be a little cooler than last time, but we will probably have about 15 named storms. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:04, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Remember, the real Cape Verde season hasn't even begun yet. We got an early taste of a Cape Verde wave developing into a storm in the western Caribbean, and that became Alex. Bonnie and Colin after that were duds, but only because they started out as Cape Verde waves but only barely became tropical storms. The lid on the Cape Verde season is going to come off in about a week. The continuous wave activity will banish some of the dry air, and we'll have one storm after another. A late start to the season does not imply low activity, and in fact most of the late starting seasons in recent years have become monster hurricane seasons, just look at 2004 for example. We've gone from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina, so this could easily end up like 1998. All it takes is one storm to devastate an entire country. Cape Verde storms are dangerous, as they could hit the Caribbean Countries, the Gulf or the East Coast. The Cape Verde train this year starts in late August and probably will not stop until late November, and since the ENTIRE Northern Hemisphere has been quiet and again, most of the extra heat, moisture and energy is right in the Atlantic, once that cap comes off we'll have a freight train of storms. Not only could this storm season end up like 2008, when all of its category four storms formed after this date, but even a 1998 or a 2005 is not out of the question. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:07, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Astro, this year's Cape Verde season is starting a little later than those other years, but the lid won't come off enough for us to have 28 named storms, yes, this season probrably will be slightly above average; I still hold my 12-6-3 prediction, but we are definitely not going to pull a 2005. 2005 had 7 named storms before August, 5 more in August, and 16 more from September to December. We will NOT have a 2005, but I can't really see even a 2008. 2008's Cape Verde season kicked off in July with Bertha and later-forming Dolly, just like 2005's. If this season's Cape Verde begun in July, then we probrably would have a 2008 or 2005 like season, too. The season generally has to start early to show a bad sign for future activity, because the contitions are favorable for a longer time period. Also, 2004, as I mentioned above, had 8 named storms in August, making it the most active August on record, and we will NOT have enough activity in the next two weeks for 7 more August storms. We will probrably get one or two more storms, but we won't have a 2004 August. Trust me, Astro, that won't happen. But September, October, and November are after that, and they could all be pretty nasty. Just be patient for now. Time will tell what will happen in the Atlantic, and worldwide, too. The Eastern and Western Pacific basins still haven't had their boom yet, either. The final predictions I'll make for the worldwide tropics are as follows:




 * WPAC:15-19 storms, 4-10 "phoons", 2-7 majors, and 1 cat. 5.


 * EPAC:9-14 storms, 4-6 'canes, 3-4 majors, and 1 cat. 5 (Celia)


 * Atlantic:8-13 storms, 3-6 'canes, 1 or 2 majors, and 0 cat. 5's.


 * SHem:24-31 storms, 14-18 cyclones, 6-12 cat. 3's, and 3 cat. 5's (by the SSHS)




 * Ryan1000 02:48, August 18, 2010 (UTC)


 * The thing about this season is that the air off the African coast has been just dry as a frickin' bone. The Saharan Air Layer is really thick this year. Look at this: . There is a huge cloud of dust sprawled way out across the Atlantic as far west as 40W, and this is not even as bad as it's been. That's what's killing your Cape Verde season right there. The cloud has spread so far south that it covers the Cape Verde Islands, the heart of Hurricane Alley. And this makes me think of an interesting theory that some scientist has come out with: that global warming may in fact hinder hurricane development as much as promote it. While the warming of the Earth's surface may make the ocean water warmer, it can also affect atmospheric patterns in ways that don't necessarily promote tropical cyclone development. One of those atmospheric wild cards is the Saharan Air Layer. A lot of scientists think that global warming may be enhancing the SAL. I found that to be a very interesting theory. Just because the oceans are getting warmer doesn't mean hurricanes are gonna have a field day. There's a lot more at play than just the temperature of the water. -- SkyFury 07:34, August 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * I mentioned that special fact above because some people in the U.S. are wondering why the 80's were so dead in the Atlantic. 2006 had very warm sea surface temps that weren't that much colder than 2005, but the atmospheric conditions were so unfavorable in 2006, we got nothing but a pretty average year. In the 1980's, during the Saharan drought, every African wave, or most of them, anyways, died out while crossing the Atlantic, but got going in the Eastern Pacific. In fact, all of 1990's storms in the Eastern Pacific came from westward moving African waves. If the Saharan Desert did not have their drought in the 70's to '87, then the AHS's in the 80's would look just like they were in today's active period. The truth is, the number of tropical waves to cross the Atlantic in the 80's wasn't that much lower than where it was from 1995 until now, but the African dust was nothing from 1995 until now, wheras in the 80's, it was so dense that almost all of the African waves died in the Atlantic, and redeveloped in the Eastern Pacific. If we have sea surface temps that are 1000 degrees, but crazy as shit shear and stable air, we can't really have a nasty season. In the same way, if there isn't an ounce of shear and freezing sea surface temps, then we still can't have a season. The 2005 season is a case where both factors came together, which explains the immense activity in that season. 2006 had very warm temps but very unfavorable wind shear and dry air, which corresponded to such a dead season in that year. We can't assume that the sea surface temps are the solemn reason for so many storms in 2005; if the atmospheric conditions don't correspond, then we can't have a season. In such a case, if we get knocked into an inactive period again, we might be less active then the 80's were because back in the 1980's, Global warming was not a very severe issue in the world. Now that it is, more dust will cross Africa's Saharan layer, which will kill more tropical waves. In the same way, during our next active period, 30 to 40 years from now, we could have more storms than during the one we're in now. I think the graph for hurricane activity will get steeper over time if this trend keeps up, in such a way as to where we are really quiet during our next cycle-quieter than the 80's, explosive in our next active cycle, more active than this one, then quieter than the previous quiet cycle, and more explosive than the last explosive cycle. Would you agree with this, SkyFury? I think this is a pretty decent theory for future hurricanes in the Atlantic, but patterns for seasons in the NIO and southern hemisphere have yet to be tested and figured out. The Pacific is supposed to contradict the Atlantic by most means. Ryan1000 18:32, August 20, 2010 (UTC)

Well, keep in mind that SSTs in the Atlantic were much lower in the 1980s than they are now. Remember in the early '80s, the east coast was getting slammed by massive blizzards. Record or near-record low temps were being set right and left across North America. This marked three-year dip in temps over North America corresponded with a dip in the jetstream that resulted in a harsh, almost winter-like environment over the Atlantic, with troughs (and therewith severe wind shear) extending deep into the tropics. At the same time, one of the strongest El Ninos in recorded history hit. But you brought up an interesting caveat in that the severe drought in Africa during the 1980s (very dry conditions prevailed worldwide throughout much of the 80s) would've enhanced the SAL. I think these three factors combined to cause near-record low activity in the Atlantic in the early 1980s. This, however, does not explain the inactivity in 1986-87. I think the big culprit there was another strong El Nino. The thick SAL may be partly responsible for '86, but most of the seven storms in '87 formed east of the Lesser Antilles. The SAL generally only affects areas east of 40W, not the entire basin, so I don't think it'll lead to a downswing in activity. However, I do think that it could lead to a pronounced westward shift in activity and fewer long-track Cape Verde hurricanes, or at least cause them to struggle until they emerge from the cloud at points westward. Look at 2005. Not one storm of tropical origin formed east of 40W. Vince was the only hurricane to form east of 55W, despite the fact that 2005 had more hurricanes than any other season in recorded history. All major storms except Maria did their business in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. That's hardly encouraging to any of us on the Gulf Coast, but that's the kind of activity that we may be looking at in the near future. (Although note that 2004 did not have this problem) -- SkyFury 08:34, August 22, 2010 (UTC)


 * Sky, keep in mind that the Saharan drought lasted until 1987, so '86 and '87 were probrably hindered from that, too. Also, '88 and '89 were more than exeptional for AHS's, and 1990 was very active but only Diana was rather exeptional that year. And from '91 to '94, we had a last-ditch strong El Nino before the 1995 to now hot streak in the Atlantic. When I realized how quiet 2009 was, and how quiet we are so far in 2010, i've been thinking we are falling into a dead period again. Worldwide, this will be a down year, but I can't be certain when that dead streak will come, but hopefully it will be soon. However, as you mentioned, hurricane activity can be hindered as much as promoted with the SAL. We'll have to wait and see what mother nature really does to us. Ryan1000 16:31, August 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Also, there was a lot of rain was a lot of rain in the SW US, but at the same time cool weather. Wind shear was also lower than they are today in the EPAC, but the winters were slighlty warmer in the SW today. The smae shoudl apply for th next activty cycle, whcih should begin soon. The ATL will see about 8 storms per year and the EPAC will likely see about 20 named storms per year. Becuase i live in Nevada, i will look foward to both. YE  <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:40, August 22, 2010 (UTC)