Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: South of Central America
Here's an odd one...it appears a couple models make something out of an area of storms located south of Central America. Just worth mentioning (and I have no idea how to indent new sections at all here now). Jake52 18:00, April 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * You just need to put a colin at the left end of the page before you type to indent. You can put two or three, ect to make it further right. Also, you can use the Format button list at the top of the heading screen to change the format start, rather than surround it with equals signs. Heading two makes a new section like the Welcome one above, Heading 3 is for making new invests, ect and heading 4 is used for making specific named storms. There are also many other buttons avaliable above where you type, Jake. There is a Bold button, an Italic button, a strike through button, and an Underline button. It really helps if you wish to change your format of writing with the buttons, but if you need more help, I can explain it on my talk page. Ryan1000 20:02, April 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS predicts TD, strange start to season. . YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Not now it won't. There is no reasonably well-defined circulation with this system, and there is a trainload of shear surrounding it. The shear doesn't usually settle down until mid-late May, June, and July, ect. Now just isn't the time. Later. ^_^ Ryan1000 16:43, April 17, 2011 (UTC)

Aol:500 miles from nowhere
BI says "As the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season will begin in just three weeks we see the first low (yellow arrow) forming well south of Baja and too far south to generate cyclonic action. But this action and the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone will march closer to Baja until our hurricane season begins in late August. ". YE Tropical Cyclone  20:17, April 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Aaand what? I don't think I actually see anything there, just a bunch of storms with no reasonably well-organized circulation. We have another month until the lid comes off, and then... Ryan1000 15:30, April 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Poof. I can't wait till the lid comes off. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:02, April 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * One more month, and then we kick into gear. Ryan1000 18:39, April 24, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: Off the coast of Central America
3rd AOI of the season, no mention on Two, and not expected to do much. Well, better than nothing when all the basins except the WPAC are asleep. YE Tropical Cyclone  14:03, May 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, the La Nina start isn't helping us, but the WPac and the Epac should be waking up by now. The Epac usually gets their first named storm by about now or in early June, but that won't mean we might not get a late start like 2009. Ryan1000 14:54, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will get a quiet start. This year will probably turn like the 2008 Pacific hurricane season or 1996 Pacific hurricane season or 2000 Pacific hurricane season if an El Nino forms like the 2004 Pacific hurricane season and the 2002 Pacific hurricane season. YE Tropical Cyclone  16:42, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * But a quiet start doesn't exactly imply a quiet season. 2009 had the latest start to an EPac season in 40 years, and we still got to 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 majors, the most active east Pacific season since 1992. And of course, last year's Atlantic season begun in June, we didn't get to the "D" name until August 22, and we still got to 19-12-5 in the season, third most active in numbers, and second most active in 'canes. We never know what may happen. The NIO should be having their first named storm by now, but they haven't... on a worldwide standard, this year is showing signs of a 1977 as of now, but that could easily change at any time. Ryan1000 02:35, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 1977? That sounds familiar. Anyway, the AOI looks decent right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * It doesn't look as vicious as it did yesterday, but it has a chance of becoming Adrian... I was saying it's partly like 1977 because the SHem had one of their least active seasons in years... We have only had 15 storms so far in the SHem season, 7 from Australia, 6 from the South Pacific, and only 2 from the SWIO... Australia typically sees 7 storms a year, the SPac saw six, compared to an average of 9, and this year's SWIO season was like the 1914 Atlantic hurricane season. Only 3 storms formed in the entire season; Abele from last November, a cat. 1 that stayed at sea, Bingiza in February, a cat. 3 landfall in Madagascar, and Cherono, a dud of a TS that remained at sea. The SWIO should get 10 storms every year, but this season had only two named storms(From 2010 only); it had to be one of the SWIO's least active seasons in many, many, many years. There is a chance this invest could become Adrian, but I won't count on it... The NIO should be getting their first storm as of now, but they haven't... And the WPac had their latest start since 2006, and have two storms with the closing of May. As of now, we have had only 17 storms form worldwide. At this time in 2010, we had 20 named storms and two cat. 5's (Edzani and Ului, both from the SHem, not to mention tons more would follow), and this year thus far, we have had 17 named storms and no cat. 5's (Yasi fell just short... 155 mph) and i'm not sure what else will be in store for us... We'll have to wait and see... if the worldwide tropical cyclone basins stay at the way they are for the next month, then we may be onto yet another dead year. I won't count out on this being a 1977 yet, however. Ryan1000 12:45, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Starting to fall apart now. I did not realize that 2011 was below that below average, but keep in mind, that it's only May, usually the least active month worldwide. I wonder what basin will keep us alive this year, last year it was the ATL and in 2009 it was the EPac. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:06, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I know... May is the least active month worldwide, and if it wasn't for last year's AHS or 2009's PHS, then we would have had two consecutive 1977's. Will it be the WPac this year? We'll wait and see what happens. Ryan1000 15:25, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gotta watch out, 20% according to NHC. <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">Talk to me  21:16, May 23, 2011 (UTC)

90E. INVEST
Well, it's on the TWO, with a 20% chance of development. This could become Adrian, but it probably won't. And, the number of storms is low, that doesn't mean a season's effects will be light. 1977 had Anita, 1992 had Andrew, of course... I'd rather have a busy season with no landfalls, then a quiet one with one major hit. HurricaneFiona 19:35, May 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I miscounted a bit in the numbers I mentioned above... We have had 18 thus far this year; I forgot to include Arani. In 2010 at this time, we had 21 storms(counting Anita in the SAtl) and 30 by the end of June last year due to the activity in the EPac and Alex in the Atlantic. I think we may have an active season, but I can't gurantee it. In 1977, only 60 storms formed worldwide, Anita was the only category 5 storm recorded worldwide in 1977, and that year remains the only season the WPac didn't produce a category 5 since the sattelite era in 1960. I don't really know why Anita was retired... Mexico was hit much harder by Hurricanes Liza and Madeline of the former Pacific hurricane season and by Tara of 1961, but none of them got retired, and Anita did, while only killing 10 people, and overall damage was insevere due to the lack of buildup in the area it made landfall... 1992 had a very quiet season in the Atlantic(yet destructive due to Andrew), but worldwide, 1992 was one of the most active tropical cyclone seasons on record. The Eastern Pacific had 27 named storms in that year, 16 'canes, and 10 majors, the all-time record in that basin. The West Pacific also had tons of storms in it's season, including Gay(pronounced haye, not Gay), the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded, in additon to an all-time NIO record of 13 named storms and a category 4 which crossed in from the WPac(Forrest), and a very active SHem season too. I don't think 2011 will be inactive worldwide as a whole, but that would only happen if the Northern hemisphere this year has a similar level of activity to last year, which I won't count on as of now. Again, we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 20:14, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90e looks decent. I hope it forms. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:20, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, it look much better a few hours ago, now convection is barely persistent, the chances of formation isn't too impressive - Too much dry air. <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">Talk to me  23:01, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%, as I expected. <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">Talk to me  00:19, May 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Look like junk, due to dry air. Shear is moderate to high, the only reason it formed was due to 30C water. However, i due see a system left of 90E that may form. Still, worth watching. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:42, May 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The EPac can still get a late start and be very active, per what I mentioned above with 2009. 90E has failed, but don't count out on this basin just yet... It's usually the one that kicks into gear the fastest, and then slows down just as fast later. Ryan1000 00:59, May 24, 2011 (UTC)

AOi:near Mexico
Near 0%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:24, May 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * And it's nothing developing. I think this year's season will turn out to be like 2009 in a way. I think we will get a slow start and when we get neutral to El-Nino conditions in August, we're gonna explode here. The chances of us getting our first storm by now are low, but I'm thinking a start around June 20 or so. Then, the conditions will settle down enough for a ton of storms here. Ryan1000 21:13, May 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I doubt we'll get a EL Nino, and it appears we are to be heading for a quiett year at this rate. The EPAc weather patterns looks like an 2008-2009 hybrid. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Well, I highly doubt we will get a hyper-active AHS either. Last year was a strong La Nina, but the La Nina conditions are starting to slowly fade away. By the time the heart of the 2011 AHS comes onto us, we will likely have a neutral to weak El Nino weather pattern. There Is a chance of a 2008 or 2004-type season, but we have a near 0% chance of a 2005-like season, and I highly doubt we will get to 2010's or 1995's level of activity either. We will likely have a near normal to slightly above normal season, but this year's AHS will NOT be a 2005-type season. Even so, the Atlantic has had a little bit of thunderstorm activity rescently in the Carribean and a tiny area of thunderstorms south of North Carolina, but due to the harsh shear environment, I highly doubt either will develop at all. I'd be comparing this year to 2004 or 2008 in both basins, but we'll see. Ryan1000 20:05, May 31, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:close to Mexico
20% on NHC. I hope it develops. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

91E.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. Yqt1001 19:09, June 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * Nice to have some more activity, but the La Nina conditions aren't exactly helping us. I wouldn't be so surprised if this area of storms doesn't develop, and 94L hasn't exactly been getting it's act together either. However, the EPac season is under way, and we should be getting our first storm climatologicaly by now. The last week of May and first week of June is when the EPac starts up. The shear must settle down for us to get some storms developing. I mentioned some facts behind this year's tornado season in 94L's section(not to get off-topic), but if we had such an incredible tornado season, will the hurricane season reflect that? We'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 23:40, June 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...And the invests have died down. It appears we are on to a silent start in both basins. As of now, the tropics are sleeping, and they will wake up in the future at some point. I guess this is it for now. Here is the Atlantic water vapor imagery map from UNISYS, and here is the Pacific one. They have apparently died away, and I wouldn't be surprised if they actually do so soon.
 * Too bad, I really wouldn't mind seeing named storms around now. Oh well, I can wait. :) And yeah, I think tornado season reflects the hurricane season. The last tornado here was in 2005, this year there has already been a tornado warning. Granted it was only about 24 hours ago (thought there hasn't been one since 2008). Yqt1001 04:06, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 40%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:05, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It still hasn't been getting it's act together so much, and the conditions ahead of it aren't very favorable 1-2 days out. It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by chance, but after that, it'll just fall apart due to the dry air out to sea. Ryan1000 16:16, June 5, 2011 (UTC)

First red circle of the year! 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Yqt1001 18:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * I didn't expect it to jump that much, but i'm not expecting so much out of "Adrian". As I said, the conditions are only favorable 1-2 days out until it runs into some dry air and slowly fades away. But, well the Western Hemisphere hasn't even begun yet, and although the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific only account for about 1/3 of worldwide development, they account for a lot of destruction and deaths(particularly the Atlantic), and the activity in the Atlantic hasn't gotten any better since 1995. The EPac and WPac will likely be below average, the Atlantic near to slightly above average, and the SHem also below average. The 1995-now AMO hasn't exactly helped us have more storms on a worldwide standard, and the Atlantic just can't make up for what we haven't had worldwide, per last year's season. Ryan1000 20:45, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * We might not be seeing Adrian from this storm, but more than likely TD one. It's at 90% chance of development! How often do you think the world can keeps its below average streak of activity up for? I was really surprised at how the SWIO season was, pretty much..nothing this year. Yqt1001 23:39, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * Um, the storm aint forecasted to go out to sea. Dry air dpes not look too bad, wite a few mdoels show a hurricane out of this. I hope it beocmes a TD soon. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:46, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * First, the Pacific and Indian oceans accound for nearly 90% of all of the activity worldwide, and the Atlantic alone isn't enough; not to say there will be nothing, but the Atlantic has been accounting for more activity than usual rescently. I would probrably expect a near-normal to above normal EPac and/or WPac season in this year...


 * Second, the SWIO season normally does well during La Nina years, but since this year's SWIO season was record-dead, I fell the Atlantic hurricane season will reflect that. The 2000 Southern Hemisphere season was in a La Nina during that year, and there was a lot of activity in the southern hemisphere in that year. The SWIO had 2 very destructive, long-lived category 4 storms in that season, including Eline, which killed up to 1000 people in Mozambique and Madagascar, and later Hudah, which killed hundreds as it rampaged through both countries again. Had subtropical storms been named by then, the AHS in 2000 would have gotten up to Oscar, up till then only the second "O" name in the Atlantic, after 1995's Opal. I never thought this year's SWIO season would be so quiet following such a strong La Nina in the former Atlantic hurricane season, but I can't help that... Actually, seeing the activity in the SWIO this year, I would expect an El Nino to form at some point and kick the EPac and WPac into above-average seasons, and hinder the Atlantic somewhat. In no ways will I see a repeat of 2010, when all of the basins excep the Atlantic were dead, but thus far, things haven't exactly reflected that. It's only June, however, and only time will tell. La Nina events normally strengthen the Atlantic, SWIO, and Australian regions, and hinder the EPac, WPac, and SPac. El Nino strengthens the EPac, WPac, and SPac, and hinders the ATL, SWIO, and Australian regions. There can be exeptions to this rule, but that's usually what happens. This year had a record-dead SWIO season, a near-normal AUS region, although many of the storms were short-lived and weak, and the South Pacific was also near normal, but with Wilma, Yasi, and Atu, 3 cat. 4's. The season has just begun here though; I guess I can't really make assumptions based on what I've seen thus far. Ryan1000 01:34, June 6, 2011 (UTC)

What in the world happened to 91E. It did it last nigh, too. This is so like Georgette. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:35, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 91E, just develop already, the water are warm, there is nothing to be afraid off. Grow, son, grow. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Worldwide activity discussion
Since there's been a lot of discussion about this I created a section where we can talk about worldwide activity, and not in the storm section. Note:that this applies to entire worldwide, not just the EPAC. If this discussion beocmes out of hand, it will stop. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone


 * NOOOOOO!!!! The season has just begun! We did this last year in August, but in June? No way, Jose! The tropics ain't gonna be dead just yet. Why must we begin this in the first place? Were 6 days into the month of June and we're already talking about dead shit? Stop this right now! >:( Ryan1000 11:40, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Let's wait until September this time, just to be sure the world will be dead. The one thing that is rather dead, is these forums. Just me Ryan, YE and Fiona (occasionally)...looking through the archives this time of year last year, there was quite a bit more activity than this. Yqt1001 12:37, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I retitled the section, happy. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:38, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Haha, the occasionally made me laugh. I'm mid-exam season at the moment, so I don't have as much time as I would like. And yeah, the Pacific's a little later then normal but the Atlantic season only just started... it's too early to really speculate on the overall activity of either season! HurricaneFiona 15:55, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Humph. Better, but I hope we get some more activity this year. The only basin thus far in this year that really was dead was the SWIO, with only 2 storms, compared to an average of 10; AKA, their 1914. The Australian region had 7 storms, which is exactly what they should have, and the SPac saw six, comparing to an average of 9, but had 2 cat. 4's and a third which reached it in the Australian region, and became the costliest cyclone ever there. But do we have to already discuss about dead activity? For god's sake, complaining about this season being a bust as of now is like your teacher saying "you have 10 minutes to complete your entire 100-question exam". That's not fair! Please have patience, everyone! We didn't talk about the "Dead basin thing"(Which ME, MYSELF, And I Archived!) until August of last year, not so much June(other than Alex and EPac "retirements at a glance"). The most active years on the Hurricane Wikia were by far 2007 and 2008. In those years, every basin except the SHem and NIO got a lot of attention. The WPac got a lot of attention in those two years, the EPac a little, and the Atlantic a lot. 2009 was hurricane wiki's least active year ever. The WPac didn't get that much attention, and the Atlantic didn't either; the majority of the Atlantic activity was explaining on a worldwide standard as to how dead we really were. The EPac got a little bit of attention, but not so much, and the SHem and NIO forums weren't even made in 2009. There wasn't a single edit on the EPac forum in 2009 for the entire month of June. For god's sake, we missed Andres, TD one-E, and part of Blanca during that time. Rick, Jimena, and Neki were the only storms in the Eastern Pacific actually worth mentioning of to some extent. But we're just beginning here, and the lack of EPac and Atlantic activity doesn't really surprise me as of yet. Please have patience, or I shall delete this absolutely pointless section when I do not feel like it's boring!(end sarcasm) Ryan1000 17:02, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well the year certainly hasn't been that dead yet (I was just wondering how long it could keep the record low activity streak up), some basins are late to start. The SWIO activity shocked me this year and none of the northern hemisphere basins (though the WPAC did have a rare category 5 typhoon in May) have really started yet. Looks like both the EPac and ATL are starting up though. 91E is going to be TD1 if it stays as organized as it is now until 0000z (near 100%) and 94L has been upgraded to 50% chance. I`m still thinking that it will be an above-average year in the Atlantic with a very very high chance of a major hurricane hitting the US. Most of the season will be in neutral (last neutral year was 2005) so it will be relatively difficult to predict what the season will bring. I feel that other basins will easily recover the lack of activity in the SWIO. Yqt1001 18:09, June 6, 2011 (UTC)