Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: SW of Cape Verde
This one's near the caost, expected to follow the other two systems. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:01, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

95L. INVEST
Part of this developed from the northwestern flank of the Cape Verde system. SHIPS predicts a hurricane but there's some model dissagreement. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:26, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * HWRF is actually predicting a cat. 2! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:49, 23 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Dropped to low-risk, but HWRF persists on bringing it to a hurricane and hitting Nova Scotia as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:55, 24 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Back up to medium risk... --Patteroast 01:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh-oh. CMC predicts a cat. 3, GFDL a cat. 4, and HWRF a cat. 3 within 5 days! GFS is also scary, not intensity-wise but track-wise: stalling around the high coming off the coast and maybe hitting New York. If we have a cat. 2 or 3 hurricane AND a landfall near New York then there could be trouble. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:48, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * And most of the models predict it to recurve through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The only models that take it west are the ones that keep it weak. It might be a good idea for Bermuda to pay attention to it, but we shouldn't have to worry about it here in the states. -- SkyFury 16:34, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got it up to high risk, it's on the danger graphic, AND there's a TCFA. Could be a depression before morning. --Patteroast 00:54, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Showing up as 08L on NRL. No word yet from NHC, but judging by what they were saying about it earlier, I'd be very surprised if this is not indeed upgraded. --Patteroast 08:30, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Confirmed by NHC. Forecast to become a hurricane heading towards the east coast... --Patteroast 08:52, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Still way too far to say it won't recurve, though. No?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 12:21, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Perhaps true. Navy/NRL has this labelled as 08L.HANNA; expect an upgrade in the next advisory. - Salak 13:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm really not kidding this time, models predict a full-scale multi-system Fujiw***, which is the last thing we need with TWO potentially threatening systems on the loose. Hanna and the other systems could actually split the Bermuda high in half, which would be troublesome because the hurricanes would be dominating the Atlantic basin instead of a high. Several models predict a turn towards the ultra-warm south, which is reflected in the near-stalling of this system on the NHC forecast by day 5. This could indeed reach New York because the Bermuda high will be partly missing! I'll wait until the 11am advisory. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:14, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hanna
Already. At 11AM, advisory 2. Storm&#39;s Eye 14:48, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Some models predict weakening as it stalls, but CMC strengthens it to a cat. 4 then pushes it toward Haiti O_O. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:27, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * "ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE." And it's headed toward Florida. Great, that's wonderful. The news just keeps getting better and better doesn't it? Plus there's a strong tropical wave about to come off Africa and now a disturbed area in the Bay of Campeche. Just like Christmas, isn't it? -- SkyFury 05:09, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I must say, every model run depicts something rather alarming. No, make that VERY alarming. CMC explodes it enough to wreak havoc wherever it hits, GFDL runs a cat. 4 toward Haiti, possibly TWICE, GFS makes it enter the Gulf and possibly hit the Atlantic seaboard after that, HWRF stalls it enough for the high to take it toward New York, mm5fsu-merge predicts explosion and stalling to rapid intensification, ngp explodes it (a true rarity for ngp), and ukmet runs a strong hurricane into the Gulf. Even NHC's track allows for rapid intensification and it could hit ANYWHERE. Not to mention all three American cities most volnerable to hurricanes. Uh-oh. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:34, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Beyong day 5, based on the current NHC forecast, I predict a TS landfall on Aklins Island on the 3rd, then a cat. 1 landfall on Great Inagua on the 4th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Port-de-Paix, Haiti on the 5th, then a cat. 2 landfall on Middle Caicos, Turks and Caicos on the 6th, then a cat. 3 landfall on Eleuthera Island, Bahamas on the 8th, then a cat. 4 landfall on Freeport City, Bahamas on the 9th, then a cat. 4 landfall near Sebastian, Florida on the 10th, then a cat. 3 landfall near Bayonne, New Jersey on the 14th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Bayonne, New Jersey on the 14th, then a TD landfall near Prince EdwardPoint, Ontario on the 15th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:34, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * 10 landfalls Astro? Are you sure that's realistic? - Salak 20:56, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not really. Either he's throwing darts, or gunning for the "Most Hyperbolic Forecasts of the Season" award. Albireo 21:22, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh-oh, the current track looks like it might enter the Gulf :S. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:29, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * What weird kind of projected path Hanna this follow, with some models crossing Cuba to the Carribbean Sea? --213.155.231.26 21:50, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

And then it gets there and finds all the warm water's been pillaged. -- SkyFury 04:37, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Either way, this could still be bad. NHC takes it into the Gulf, where it could interact with Gustav and cause HUGE complications. The entire US gulf and east coast is not safe, because models do very poorly on hurricane-hurricane interactions and stalling from high pressure. The scary thing is, GFS takes what looks like a cat. 4 onto St. Simmons Island, and NOGAPS takes the same cat. 4 and dumps it onto Miami. Remember the water in the Atlantic's pretty warm too, and even with Gustav the water could still be warm enough to support Hanna somewhat. By the way Sky, Dorian is a unisex name. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:45, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * One cataclysmic hurricane at a time, please. -- SkyFury 21:38, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Anyone who thinks they know exactly where Hanna is going right now is probably going to end up being wrong. Squarethecircle 03:00, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Couldn't put it better myself. The models are pointing in pretty much every direction possible. - Salak 03:42, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Some are suggesting a pass near NYC, especially GFS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:51, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, at this point, I think Hanna could go almost anywhere between Heaven and Hell. I can't say I much care for where the forecast has it pointed right now though. -- SkyFury 18:42, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to go to Savannah. Expect that to change seventy times between now and it finally hitting land...if it doesn't just spin around on itself and head back out to sea. Silly Hanna.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:48, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Could bring heavy rain to southern Ontario Saturday evening. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:14, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, that forecast races it up the coast. The winds also jumped rather startlingly and I don't much like the idea of a hurricane hitting Savannah. Beautiful city, I've been there. The last time a hurricane directly made landfall in Georgia was David in 1979, crossing near uninhabited Ossabow Island just south of Savannah with 90 mph sustained winds. This has been a very active Cape Verde season. We've had Fay, Gus, Hanna, an impending Ike and now yet another Cape Verde disturbance. Wow. -- SkyFury 16:33, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Hanna
NHC have issued a special advisory. This season is heating up. Isfisk 18:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hmm, I really don't see why NHC is keeping it a cat. 1 all the way to the US. The water in between is plenty warm, and SHIPS and HWRF both predict a cat. 2, while GFDL predicts a cat. 4. Expected to make landfall in South Carolina but could have consequences for the entire Georgia coast. GFDL makes a cat. 3 landfall, while HWRF makes a landfall at cat. 2 near St. Simmons. The good news is, the water north of Cape Hatteras has cooled since August. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:58, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I must have angered the gods; they're sending all the hurricanes after me. I'm still in Atlanta by the way, tornadoes have popping up like daisies all over Mobile County and God knows I'm not driving in the dark when there's tornadoes around. -- SkyFury 21:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hanna (second time)
Back down to a TS, expected to skirt the east coast overland, but GFDL sends a strong TS-remnant right into S. Ontario! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:11, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Hanna got sheared to hell but NHC is still convinced that the conditions will get better. This one definately still bears watch. Hanna's kind of reminding me of Hurricane Gracie in 1959. Though I very much doubt Hanna will get anywhere near that strong, the track is very similar and Gracie was followed that year by Hurricane Hannah, which moved westward under a weaker subtropical ridge and then recurved as a major hurricane in the west Atlantic, eventually hitting the Azores as a Cat. 2. -- SkyFury 16:33, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC can't make up its mind about what Hanna will do. I particularly liked the one yesterday evening that had Tropical Storm Hanna reemerging in the Gulf of Saint-Lawrence and making TS-strength landfall on, of all places, the Quebec north coast (you know, where 65F is warm summer weather).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:04, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hell, Hanna can't make up it's mind what it'll do. Hanna is a little stronger and actually moving(!!!), north as the case may be and NHC remains convinced that it will strike land as a hurricane. The track's shifted way north, too, to the Outer Banks (which may be the reason for the persistant intensity forecast) -- SkyFury 02:21, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now the models are in almost perfect agreement on the track, and NHC is no longer expecting a hurricane, but hurricane watches are still out. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:54, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * TS watches are out for NYC, expected to hit the British Isles at TS strength. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:16, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hanna gets the first autumn European windstorm, it seems. --213.155.231.26 21:08, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

Looking at the latest forecast map...How many TS-strength landfall is that supposed to be, again? (I'm counting three-four in the US, and three in Canada...)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:39, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hanna is for all intents and purposes a hurricane right now and should be viewed as one. This is where NHC has frustrated me in the past. They did it with Gaston in '04, Cindy in '05, Ernesto in '06 and they're doing it now with Hanna; choosing the low side of the estimates and staying conservative (devoutly). The problem with doing that is that many people will underestimate the storm and not view it as a threat. I notice on the radar a little wiggle to the west. A South Carolina landfall is very possible, I'm thinking North Myrtle Beach, SC; Sunset Beach, NC and all points in between are likely landfall locations. -- SkyFury 04:36, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hanna now less than an hour away from landfall near North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, from what I see on Wilmington radar. -- SkyFury 05:58, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

Extra-Tropical Storm Hanna
Last advisory issued.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 14:42, 7 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Time to archive her,then?--L.E./12.144.5.2 16:00, 7 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Just because she's extratropical doesn't mean he's done. The CHC is still monitoring her and it could bring some very heavy rain to Atlantic Canada in a few hours. It's merged with the remnants of Gustav so better to archive that first. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:04, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SE of Cape Verde
Most models predict something out of this, could become a hurricane. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:02, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Already on NHC TWO as medium-risk. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ah, don't you love this time of year? -- SkyFury 05:14, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I think this one has a pretty decent chance. That Bermuda High is so strong I'd be worried about this one making it all the way across even if it forms way out here, but a lot can change in the 2 weeks it would take to make it across. Bob rulz 12:49, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

97L. INVEST
Already! It hasn't even made it west of Cape Verde yet, not to mention models actually like this one, and not to mention there are two other well-developed waves chasing this one. The Bermuda high won't be well-developed for long, because Hanna's about to punch a big hole in it, along with the AoI near Nova Scotia and the AoI west of CV will weaken it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:40, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks amazing. TS by this time tomorrow -Winter123 20:45, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Models make it look a lot like Bertha; taking it out into the mid-Atlantic, gradually strengthening. Highest intensity I can see is LGEM and GFDI's 76 knots. Only NOGAPS fails to develop the system as conditions across the basin seem generally favorable (welcome to Cape Verde season everybody). -- SkyFury 04:54, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks well-developed, at high-risk on NHC TWO. Could affect Bermuda and/or Nova Scotia, except this time the water's a lot warmer. Maybe my prediction of 9 TS's by end of August (and thus my prediction of 20 TS's this year) could be right after all, or maybe not, who knows. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:50, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Should I reiterate my favorite adage? BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER! -- SkyFury 22:24, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that one this time 'round. Looks like it's going fishing at the moment, and it's got plenty of room to do so. Squarethecircle 03:05, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * At the moment. Right now, it looks like Gustav is going to be the storm of the season, but we thought the same thing about Dean last year. And the curse of the first storm of September has happened too many times in the past (including last year) for me to dismiss it. -- SkyFury 18:52, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * What do you mean by the first storm in September? Do you mean the first storm that forms in September, or do you mean if a storm is active at the beginning of September, but what if there are two storms or more, do you count the one that formed earlier or closer to September, or the stronger one, because Felix formed I think before September started, and what if Gustav becomes this "first storm in September", or do you count storms at depression status or only TS, etc? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:31, 31 August 2008 (UTC)

I think he means the first storm to form in September, because Gustav will exist in September, and also because some of his links are to the first formed storms, but not the first storms period, in September. On another note, the environment doesn't look very conducive right now either. I could definitely see Ike from this, but I doubt we'll have 'cane No. 5. Squarethecircle 23:31, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. - A depression later today seems plausible. Well, back to Gustav watching. Isfisk 12:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
Up on NHC. Been a while since our last three-storms moment, no? Current forecasts shows it going up to hurricane strength then barelling toward KatRita Expressway (ie, the southern tip or florida or the straits)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:14, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * SHITTHAT'SBAD!! -- SkyFury 16:17, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, this could by Ike at 5pm according to NHC. Expected to travel quickly west and could affect any one of the three vulnerable American cities even though the forecast is high-confidence. ECWMF (dunno if I spelt that right) predicted yesterday it would hit NOLA, and it looks like my US landfall prediction wasn't unfounded, but I predict something a bit different for this storm than NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:36, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Still too early to tell at this point, but I predict, beyond day 5, a cat. 2 landfall on Rum Cay, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Stella Maris, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 2 landfall on southern Exuma Cays, Bahamas, then a cat. 2 landfall near Merkey Town, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 3 landfall between Cutler Ridge and Miami, Florida on the 8th, then a cat. 3 landfall near Niceville, Florida on the 9th, then a cat. 1 landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 12th, then a TS landfall near Asbury Park, New Jersey on the 13th, then a TS landfall near Perth Amboy/Elizabeth, NJ on the 13th, then a TD landfall near Kinston, Ontario on the 15th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:55, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * You forgot the Cat. 5 landfall in the Sea of Tranquility :-p.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh, OK, no, that's impossible. BTW is it true that gas in Montreal is $1.39? Anyway, GFDL and HWRF are shifting its track south, which is bad news for Haiti and NOLA. I expect a track shift to the south and an upgrade to TS by the 5pm advisory. This season's REALLY beginning to pick up now. By the way, in Canada, school doesn't start until after the Labour Day weekend. The last thing New Orleans needs is another hurricane. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * In order: I know it's impossible, but as it's impossible to make predictions worth anything right now, might as well be crazy ; I don't know how much gas cost, I use mass transit, but according to what I find 1.39 is probably around the highest gas gets in the Montreal region, with much lower prices in other parts of town ; The track will probably shift and turn fifty times between now and whenever it makes landfall (if it does) ; and, uh, what does school starting in canada after the labor day weekend have to do with anything?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:40, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ike
The train just keeps rollin' on. -- SkyFury 21:12, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The track is shifting disturbingly close to Miami and NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:29, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Both GFDL and HWRF explode it to a cat. 4 before it even crosses Cuba! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:13, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * An increase in easterly shear is not going to let that happen but now it's not forecast to hit Cuba and is now pointed toward the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane, which is very disconcerting. -- SkyFury 16:35, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Would you care to rephrase that before Ike intensify more? ;-)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:37, 4 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Ike
There we go.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 21:02, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now that it looks like Hanna won't become a major hurricane, Ike is starting to make me a bit nervous... --Patteroast 21:46, 3 September 2008 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Ike
Just updated to a category 3 in a special advisory. If it doesnt make that slightly north turn around midnight saturday than Haiti may have serious problems --Chariot 00:22, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * OMG, this could very easily emerge as a cat. 5 in the Gulf, which is NEVER a good thing. Sky was right, beware the first storm of September. Even since Aug. 31, the ECWMF model (not sure if I spelt that right) predicted Ike to hit NOLA sometime around Sept. 10, and it looks like it might do so. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:45, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't know about that, but this just got ugly really fast. Those winds jumped from 70 knots to 100 knots in three hours. That's obscene. I don't know how that easterly shear will affect Ike but NHC has this thing as a Category 4 pointed right at Key Largo. That is not good. This just stopped stopped being fun and now I'm starting to get scared. I'm all for the raw power of nature, but that shear can feel free to take a bite out of this thing, because whether it hits Florida or not, nothing good can come of a Category 4 headed west across the Atlantic. -- SkyFury 02:07, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Up to category 4, 135mph. Strengthening quite a bit faster than i had initialy expected --Chariot 06:18, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's supposed to weaken for a couple of days and then re-strengthem according to the NHC.But what could happen if it crosses Florida and then gets to intensify over the Loop Current?...is there much chance of that?--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:22, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's certainly not beyond the realm of possibility but right now most of the models seem to be suggesting the cyclone will begin recurving later in the forecast period. A lot of the impact that Ike may end up having will depend on when and if it recurves.  The weakening over the next couple of days isn't likely to be significant and Ike will still be a major hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.  If it makes a hit on Florida and emerges into the Gulf - or worse, sneaks in through the Straits of Florida - well, then things get ugly. Albireo 19:52, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * HWRF (and NHC!) are predicting a cat. 4 or so landfall right on Miami! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:57, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * (Or a Cat. 3 landfall at Ft. Lauderdale if you want to get technical.) The news hasn't gotten any better, despite forecasts of more extensive weakening. NHC is just speculating right now on how much that shear will affect the storm plus there's the ever-present possibility of an eyewall cycle, plus, as NHC points out, the cooler water upwelled by Hanna (the benefits of an active year). -- SkyFury 23:24, 4 September 2008 (UTC)

If you want to go by estimated pressure (I know, I know, but it's still impressive even if it's imprecise), there was a prolonged period of strengthening greater than 6 hPa/h, which I believe counts as "Insane Intensification". The shear seems to be starting to get to it a little, but the structure, albeit very asymmetric, is still supportive of a very intense hurricane. Also, the eye is very round, well-formed, and somewhat warm. The track also looks very nasty. Squarethecircle 23:56, 4 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Now some models are saying Straits of Florida as a predicted path,per NHC 11 PM discussion...so,from there to the Loop Current...could Rita's record as strongest Gulf hurricane fall?(I've thought that the worst case hurricane disaster would be a Rita-at-peak-strength hurricane finishing the 1900 storm's job on Galveston,then heading up the Ship Channel--Shipwreck Channel--into the low-lying areas of Houston).--L.E./12.144.5.2 03:47, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Latest NHC forecast has shifted south and now does indeed point to this scenario. Ouch.  That said, there is still the all-important question of exactly where the storm ends up.  GFDL wants to rake it over Cuba which would help to disrupt the storm (but bad for Cuba).  HWRF wants to turn the hurricane north into the Florida Penninsula.  The CMC model actually recurves the storm before Florida and back out to sea.  Bottom line is this storm could still wind up anywhere, but right now it's looking like Florida and the eastern half of the Gulf are most at risk, rather than Houston/Galveston. Albireo 15:36, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * No. Behave, Ike. No Gulf of Mexico for you. Interesting to note though, after taking it through the Keys a Category 4, NHC weakens it substantially to barely a major hurricane. Though I'm not sure this is any worse than a 125 mph Cat 3 striking South Florida, it certainly isn't any better. I don't know what the best case scenario is and I'm not sure I want to know. -- SkyFury 17:08, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * CMC, GFDL, and UKMET depict a strong possibility of hitting NOLA, with HWRF and NOGAPS more with the Mobile area, and GFS more New York-ish. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:20, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Uh-oh, this is bad...the new track shifted south and it's expected to become a cat. 4 right into the Straits of Florida. This means it could become a cat. 5 in the Gulf and it's heading for the Mississippi-Alabama area. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:07, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * I'm in the NY area so I hope the GFS is wrong.NHC guidance at 5 PM says 115 KT at 72,96,and 120 hours but that's before any potential Loop Current intensification?--Louis E./12.144.5.2 21:13, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

Very significant improvement has occurred over the past few hours with Ike. The eye has redeveloped on microwave and the IR presentation looks very good. Squarethecircle 23:52, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Shit. Cuba, I believe, is our only hope. Learn to love that island in your heart and soul. Start praying to the island gods in Spanish because right now, I think Cuba is the only thing that can stand in Ike's way(apart from a fortuitous eyewall cycle). I'm also not a big fan of having a major hurricane headed toward the north-central Gulf Coast (and me). -- SkyFury 06:08, 6 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Do I have the feeling that the Americans begin to like Cuba? ;-) --213.155.231.26 11:00, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Ike (second time)
Downgraded to a cat. 2, as expected. It's expected to strengthen then weaken to a cat. 1 over Cuba, but then re-strengthen to a cat. 3 or 4 in the Gulf. It could hit the NOLA-Mobile area. This is really bad for Haiti, because it's already under a TS warning and Ike could bring further flooding to land already oversaturated by Fay, Gustav, and Hanna, where a total of more than 200 people were killed altogether. Maybe it'll fail to strengthen as Gustav did, but this still has a very wide error cone though. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:48, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * 200? Isn't Hanna alone already up to 500? Frankly, I'm worried if this go toward NOLA - Gustav might have dulled reflexes. Ike striking so soon after a major not-so-disastrous alarm has major potential to go seventy shades of wrong...--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:57, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Ike (second time)
2 PM advisory says it's back to Category 3.(Memo to Ike...in case they didn't teach you in hurricane school,land is bad for you.Do not make landfall...it makes you dissipate,and the people there think you're a blowhard,all wet,and full of hot air...you will not be welcome.)--L.E./12.144.5.2 18:18, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Sorry Cuba, but a three there is probably better than a four in the Keys. I'm not liking the idea of it restrengthening into a major hurricane in the Gulf. -- SkyFury 19:12, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Looking at the 12z models (and one 00z), by extending and estimating, you can see that CMC predicts a cat. 4 landfall in Grand Isle, Louisiana, GFDL predicts a cat. 3 landfall on the Mississippi-Alabama border, GFS predicts a cat. 4 landfall on Panama City, Florida, HWRF predicts a cat. 4 landfall in Terrabonne Bay, Louisiana, mm5fsu-merge predicts a cat. 3 landfall near Sabine Pass, Texas, NOGAPS makes a cat. 3 landfall on the Birdfoot Delta, and UKMET makes a cat. 3 landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas. This means that 7/7 models restrengthen it to a major hurricane in the Gulf, plus the 11am NHC forecast, which, along with 7/7 models, also predict a major hurricane landfall in the Gulf coast. Plus, 3/7 models strengthen it to a cat. 5 in the Gulf, and half of all models plus the NHC landfall it on Louisiana, which is not good, to say the least. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:46, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Word has it that Ike is now a cat. 4...will wait for the official NHC update. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:34, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This is confirmed by the 5 PM bulletin...now says it has 135 mph winds,will intensify to 125KT in 24 hours before weakening over Cuba and heading into the Gulf and strengthening again...slowing forward...over the Loop Current maybe?--L.E./12.144.5.2 21:29, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I hope the people of New Orleans kept their suitcases packed because the forecast has had it pointed their direction for the past 24 hours. This is unbelievable. It's like '04 and '05; just one after another. -- SkyFury 00:39, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm back online after a Hanna-induced power outage(Hanna has me covered,Ike...you stay away!).I see that the 8PM advisory reports Ike's pressure is back below 28 InHg.So will Katrina/Rita be repeated by Gustav/Ike?The first three pulled their punches,weakening significantly before landfall.--L.E./12.144.5.2 00:52, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Just an update on model extention/estimation: GFS now predicts a cat. 5 landfall near Marsh Island, Louisiana, GFDL a cat. 3 landfall near White Lake, Louisiana, and HWRF between Galveston and Freeport, Texas as a cat. 3. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:59, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

Don't worry Louis, Ike's headed for me down here in Mobile (you're in NYC, right? If so, then the bitch is right on top of you.) God, I hope Cuba's prepared for this, because I think Ike's going to keep on getting stronger until it runs into something. Truth is, we have no idea what Ike will do once it gets into the Gulf. There's a large spread in the models intensity wise and most of the models are not predicting Ike to recurve over the Gulf, at least during the forecast period (Houston, bad news for you). What we do know is that this storm poses a serious threat to the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and Cuba. As for the Keys, don't get off the edge of your seat, but the news is getting better for you. I doubt good news will be in great supply over the next few days. "Weakens more over Cuba" and "Not going to hit New Orleans" are about the best we can hope for at this point. I bet there'll be plenty of people in churches tomorrow. If you're a religious man, start prayin'. If you're not, I suggest you find something to drink because bad shit's about to start happening. Beware the first storm of September. -- SkyFury 06:05, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This storm is indeed looking bad. The latest models are putting it even farther south and it may end up crossing Cuba and moving underneath the country in the same hot waters that Gustav intensified in, and there's not predicted to be the same shear and dry air that kept Gustav from restrengthening over the Gulf. My very early and amateur opinion is a landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Mississippi at the rate the models have swung left, but pretty much nowhere on the Gulf Coast is safe now, including Mexico and even the Yucatan. Cuba is of course the big x-factor here. This could hit Cuba as a cat 5, and if it crosses the island north-to-south who knows what it could do in the Caribbean. Let me just say, this is a very unusual storm. History is in the making here if only because of the track. This is one of the strongest ridges we've ever seen. Bob rulz 07:03, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * CMC now predicts a cat. 4 landfall on the Florida-Alabama border, GFDL a cat. 3 near White Lake, Louisiana, GFS a cat. 4 landfall on Marsh Island, Louisiana, HWRF a cat. 2 landfall on Pensacola, Florida, mm5fsu-merge a cat. 4 landfall on Padre Island, Texas, NOGAPS a cat. 3 landfall near Dulac, Louisiana, and UKMET a cat. 3 landfall near Galveston, Texas. The latest NHC forecast makes this look like a re-Rita. It already slammed into Turks and Caicos as a cat. 4, and is heading for Great Inagua. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:04, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm up the valley from NYC...the Hanna weather has cleared today.So far nobody's predicted Rita-level intensity for Ike (180 mph gusting to 235,with 26.44 inHg central pressure) but who knows what Ike could do arriving fairly intact over the Loop Current for a luxuriating dawdle to intensify.--L.E./12.144.5.2 16:09, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Up the valley...i.e past Yonkers? Yeah, looking at the archived sat. imagery, you guys got hit pretty hard. Any wind damage, street flooding? On Ike, I wasn't expecting to see Texas under the gun but here we are. If Ike spends even a little bit more time over water, we have a big problem and the problem's serious enough as it is. I hate to say it, but I think the Galveston/Houston area is better prepared to take a hit than almost anywhere else in Gulf. The Galveston Seawall can hold back a 15 foot storm surge (and did in 1915, 1932 and 1945). Houston is a big flood risk (as we saw in 2001 with Allison) but it's somewhat inland and not as much at risk of severe winds like the coastal areas are. We got lucky with Gustav. I just wonder how much longer we can keep being lucky. -- SkyFury 17:50, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * An update of models: CMC now predicts a cat. 5 landfall on High Island, Texas, GFDL preidcts a cat. 3 landfall on that same spot, GFS a cat. 4 landfall on Anahuac, in Galveston Bay, Texas, HWRF a cat. 2 on Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and UKMET a cat. 4 landfall on Freeport, Texas. The problem is, the GFS does pretty well a lot of the time, and it didn't predict nearly this much intensity explosion in the Gulf with Gustav (and it didn't happen). It's rather concerning that most models are centred around the Galveston Bay area. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:53, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

Pssh. Two things: The GFS is not designed for intensity predictions, and it's been doing rather poorly this year. I wouldn't trust it if it was the only model I had. And we all know that the CMC was never close to the middle of the class (though everyone's better than the likes of Clippy and the LBAR). The models show generally a TX/LA landfall (at least, the trustworthy ones do), and at about a 3 (though things can sort of, like, change, and fast). Also, the HWRF and the GFDL did very well with Gus in the GoM (once it was over Cuba, that is). Squarethecircle 02:27, 8 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Ike (third time)
If we're going to keep doing new subheads when it changes Categories,we should note it's been a 100 mph Cat 2 for the 8AM,11AM,and 2PM bulletins,and has crossed Cuba once while being expected to cross back to the Gulf.Pressure has risen but restrengthening appears likely.Whether it will have better luck getting its groove back after Cuba than Gustav did remains unknown.(Seriously,Ike,land is bad for you.Wrecks your convection,outflow,structure,windspeed,raises your pressure,fills and distorts your eye...is that really worth dropping in on people who can't stand you?Stay away!)--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:32, 8 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Now it's down to 80mph and the 5PM forecast says it'll only get to 100KT before final landfall in 5 days.--L.E./12.144.5.2 21:05, 8 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Cuba did a number on Ike, the storm looks pretty disheveled but the conditions in the Gulf are pretty darn good. There's a plot of heavy thunderstorms around the Bay of Campeche that's generating 20 kts of shear just south of the forecast track but this looks like a transient feature. It's just a matter of how much Ike can take advantage of the conditions. By the way, today is the 108th anniversary of the Galveston Hurricane, which left 8,000 people dead and most of Galveston in ruins. The similarities in track between Ike and the 1900 storm are kinda creepy. -- SkyFury 23:14, 8 September 2008 (UTC)


 * For a while the NHC bulletin forecast path looked like a bullseye on Galveston Bay,but last I saw it has shifted south...we'll see the update in half an hour.In any case,Ike was identified in Tropical Weather Outlooks in late August,in 1900 Galveston didn't have that much advance warning!--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 02:27, 9 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Not looking quite as bad for the Gulf coast as it did, hopefully the second Cuban landfall will disrupt it more. Almost a certain retirement already though I'd've thought after adding to Haiti's misery, ripping the Turks & Caicos to shreds and hitting Cuba with some force. Anyway, 5pm discussion: "THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS." ...so the 80mph figure might be too high, if anything? - Salak 02:31, 9 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Remember that this still follows the OFC from a ways back, so it's a little too early to say that this is less of a threat. Hopefully the HWRF and GFDL really ARE bullish, and the SHIPS really isn't conservative (though time will tell). Also, Eric - I mustn't speak to soon, but I doubt this WON'T be on your little "beware" list next year (if you run out of space, get creative, because Ike's gonna need his place). Maybe the first and the last Hurricane Ike ever - and what an impressive Ike it is. ACE is at 25.8, should be well above Bertha by the time the storm is over, which should bring the season to around 110 ACE points - only one more storm and this season is officially above average (anyone want to bet there won't be another HURRICANE? I didn't think so). Squarethecircle 03:17, 9 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to say that the Gulf Coast should be complacant, just that it might hit as a 3 rather than a 5 or something. It's still quite possible/probable for this to hit the US coast with a fierce punch. - Salak 05:03, 9 September 2008 (UTC)

I really don't see anything that will prevent this storm from becoming a monster. It's huge and it's wasted no time intensifying after it moved off of Cuba. I will boldly guess that this is going to be the worst storm to hit Texas since Hurricane Carla. Bob rulz 06:33, 10 September 2008 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
NRL's showing a new invest, latest wave coming off Africa, right on the coast. --Patteroast 05:28, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 06:26, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Here comes...Josephine? I haven't seen an invest this close to the coast so far this year. We could have 10 storms before the peak of the season even arrives! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Although it hasn't formed yet, I predict TS Josephine on the 3rd with a pass near Fogo Island, Cape Verde, then a cat. 3 pass near Bermuda to the east on the 11th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Musquodobit Harbour, Nova Scotia on the 14th, then a TS landfall near Wood Islands, PEI on the 15th, then a TD landfall near Elmira, PEI on the 15th, then a EX-TD landfall near Cape Ray, Newfoundland on the 16th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * God, here we go again. This has just been an incredible stretch, starting with Fay. We've had four storms in the past week. That's 2005 sh!t right there. I doubt it'll continue like 2005 did but the past ten days have been ridiculous. I don't know what I'm going to do with regards to school. I was going to leave today, but with the conditions in Mobile being what they are, I don't know if that's a good idea. -- SkyFury 17:39, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Four numbered/named systems on the map at once would be quite the sight, for sure. If going by Wiki's list of when systems were active in 2005, I'm not sure even they ever got above a 3-systems scenario. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:49, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

NHC now has it as highest potential: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. Seasos's going wild. Isfisk 18:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * OMG, HWRF turns it into a re-Vince!! If the season's this crazy, and there are ten storms before it usually peaks, then my 20 storms might actually be un underestimate. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:12, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Chill out, HWRF is on drugs. This is the African wave nowhere near the North Atlantic. Guillaume, you are correct, 2005 never had more than three named storms active at once (Maria, Nate and Ophelia from 06Z Sep 7-12Z Sep 10), which we have now. However, that threesome were actually all hurricanes for a brief time (about three hours between 18Z Sep 8 and 00Z Sep 9). The Atlantic has had four hurricanes active at once twice before (1893 and 1998). This appears to be the Atlantic record for both simultaneous hurricanes and simultaneous TCs. Going worldwide, the Eastern Pacific, believe it or not, holds the record for most tropical cyclones active simultaneously in a single basin. On August 26, 1974, five EPAC storms were active at once: Hurricane Ione, Hurricane Joyce, Tropical Storm Kirsten, Tropical Storm Lorraine and Hurricane Maggie. CPAC Tropical Depression Olive was also active until 06Z, bringing the day's TC total to six! The Western Pacific has had three major hurricanes active at once (1987; Freda, Gerald and Holly) as well as two Category 5's active at once (1997 is the only time I know of, the South Pacific also achieved this in 1998). -- SkyFury 22:24, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Dammit. Gustav got its final advisory before Ten could become Josephine. Oh, well. At least we got simultaneous advisory for Gustav, Hanna, Ike and TD-10 at 5 AM, which is already impressive.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 13:53, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten
NRL's got it listed as 10L.NONAME. Judging by the language the NHC is using ("THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 AM AST."), I'd have to assume that we'll get word from NHC shortly. --Patteroast 08:27, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Well that didn't take long. Should be Josephine later today. --Patteroast 08:36, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Josephine
It's official. Albireo 15:13, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Fishie. That's my prediction. I think a weakness in the ridge will eventually develop and allow it to recurve. And from what NHC is saying, Josephine may not even become a hurricane. -- SkyFury 16:37, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Starting to look like it won't even last long enough to recurve... --Patteroast 21:44, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now expected to maintain itself as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:00, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Incidentally, there's apparently a bug on the NHC system. Well, either that, or else Josie has experienced the most cataclysmic pressure drop ever witnessed on earth...;-)(It's a bug, obviously)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:22, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The Bug is now fixed - the central pressure on NHC was reported as 0MB instead of the proper 1002 MB :-D--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:25, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Long term NHC track, while forecasting potential dissipation, calls for a steady intensification when Jo reaches about where Ike is now. Squarethecircle 02:01, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Josie's done. That trough is just too much for her; I don't think she can recover. -- SkyFury 06:10, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: East of Virgin Islands
NHC has it at low-risk. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now an invest. Not much chance in the short-term, but this could be yet another threat down the line. Bob rulz 20:13, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: West of Josephine
CMC developes it as a separate system. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off Guinea
This system might not look too impressive, but the huge wave behind it is expected to develop by many models. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yesterday, that wave blew me away but now all that impressive convection has vanished. I also think it's too close to Josephine and is getting a face-full of her shear. -- SkyFury 16:45, 3 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Around Tampico, Mexico
There's this interesting swirl of low pressure on satellite. It looks like it has an eye, but no defined circulation, and it's over land, but heavier convection lies in the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like it's moving west, but it has some potential to perhaps influence Ike. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:18, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

Program for use in tropical cyclone QPF
..but weather weenies might like it too. heheheh  It's a series of scripts that are run in-house through a GUI named cliqr (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/web/cliqr.html), and it runs for all ATCF-entered invests. It shows the rainfall graphics for the systems that most closely match ongoing invests, with greater weight placed on location, size (ROCI), and forward motion than the other parameters. If nothing else, you can look at the list of matches and see where they went. Thegreatdr 23:41, 6 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ooh, grown-up toys, yay! -- SkyFury 05:13, 7 August 2008 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
So, now with six named storms, it seems linke we can discuss retirements now. Here is my take so far: What are your thoughts? 69.92.37.140 00:57, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur - 10% - damage not severe
 * Bertha - 7% - minimal damage
 * Cristobal - 5% - foregettable, hardly caused any damage
 * Dolly - 60% - caused over $1 billion in damage, and 21 deaths
 * Eduoard - 10% - damage total unknown, but probably not severe
 * Fay - 75% - caused over 100 deaths, severe damage possible. Interestingly, this could be the first time the same letter in the same list is retired twice, as Fay replaced Fran for the 2002 season.
 * I'm having a hard time corroborating the 100+ deaths from Fay. Most of the sources I'm finding are suggesting 14, and that the original count from Haiti was greatly exaggerated.  I'd wait till damage figures are in, but right now I'd put Fay at more like 25% based on what I know right now.  I think I'd also nudge Dolly down to 50%, as the death toll/damage estimates are not exceptionally high and the affected countries (US and Mexico) seem to be somewhat conservative with nominating names for retirement. Albireo 15:59, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * By the way, Fay did not replace Fran in the 2002 season, it replaced it in the 1996 season, so this wouldn't be the first time. Here are my estimates:
 * Arthur: 4% - It wasn't that bad, and storms cause mudslides all the time in Central America.
 * Bertha: 3% - Although it broke a few records, damage in Bermuda wasn't severe.
 * Cristobal: 2% - Damage minimal, although this is the only storm so far to follow the Gulf Stream, and it caused some flooding in Nova Scotia, but not much.
 * Dolly: 49% - I'm not going to place any bets on this storm, as damage wasn't really that bad, and most flooding occured inland while it was a depression. However, it is still a devastating storm, which caused over 1 billion in damage, so it has a good chance nevertheless.
 * Edouard: 6% - Although hurricane watches were originally issued, it never became a hurricane and was really not that bad.
 * Fay: 29% 43% - Damages in the US and Cuba were minimal, storms kill dozens in Haiti all the time and not get retired, the bus crash in the Dominican Republic was indirect, but each country does have some chance of retiring it, and it's not done yet. Update: severe flooding in Florida and other places.
 * Gustav: (tenative) 78% 77% - Based on the current forecast, but still too early to tell. Update: over 60 deaths in Haiti, massive evacuation initiated in Louisiana.2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:53, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Hanna: (tenative) 52% 70% - It hasn't done anything yet, but I dunno, I just have a bad feeling about this one... Update: Nearly 140 deaths in Haiti.
 * Ike: (tenative) 80% - I know it hasn't done anything yet, but it could seriously wreck parts of Florida and the Gulf. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:32, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Josephine: (tenative) 21% - It's way too early to tell, and it looks like a dud, but there is a chance it may affect Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:32, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:05, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * So, there you have it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:12, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

Just a comment on the question of whether a name with the same letter has been retired from the same list more than once... it's happened multiple times already. Allen > Andrew (x2) > Alex. Alicia > Allison (x3) > Andrea. Frederic > Fabian (x4) > Fred (upcoming). And most strikingly the back-to-back Marilyn > Michelle > Melissa. --Patteroast 07:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC)
 * When was the last time a tropical storm was retired? One and only Allison? Seems Fay has way to go to reach that. However, if the track swifts a bit more to the south Big Easy might get in troubles. --213.155.231.26 21:06, 21 August 2008 (UTC)

You took my title. Jake52 01:27, 23 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 5%. 9 deaths total and a fair bit of damage. Neither of these are really substantial criterion for retiring a storm.
 * Bertha: 2%. It was a certainly notable tropical cyclone, but that's all it has to its name is notability. It only caused three deaths, and none of these were in Bermuda.
 * Cristobal: 1%. Honestly. The thing did negligibly little. If Chantal wasn't retired last year (and it wasn't), Cristobal stands no chance at all.
 * Dolly: 45%. This goes off estimated damages being equal to or less than final. If the estimates are greater than actual, it's just a 25%. Fair death toll.
 * Edouard: 1%. Ladies and gentlemen...what on Earth did this thing do?
 * Fay: 10%, possibly higher. Fair death toll. Will wait for damage reports.
 * Gustav: 88%. Made a mess of the Caribbean. High death toll and damages.
 * Hanna: 85%. What on EARTH happened here?!? This thing ALONE killed more people than ALL OF 2007!!! I hate to do this, but it's got lower chances than Gustav for the sadly unavoidable reason that it's Haiti. But still, axe it.
 * Ike: ??
 * Josephine: 0%. Negligible.
 * Arthur: 3%: Nothing out of the ordinary, your bog standard storm hitting a Central America coast.
 * Bertha: 12%: Broke a record or two, scared Bermuda. Not much damage though
 * Cristobal: 2%: What did it do again?
 * Dolly: 34%: Whacked south Texas.
 * Edouard: 10%: Made Houston sit up and take note. Didn't do much in the end though.
 * Fay: 39% 59%: Pounded Florida with severe flooding in places. Damage in Carribean was nothing unusual. New Orleans a little lucky not to get a stronger hit due to it staying over the Florida Panhandle.
 * Gustav: Not made landfall yet; too early to tell. - Salak 04:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Eric's divine and always superior pontification:
 * Arthur: 5% - just for catching NHC with its pants around its ankles...and setting a really cool record too.
 * Bertha: 9% - I've always wanted to visit Bermuda, apparently Bertha felt the same way. She had a jolly old time out there for about a month. What is it about Berthas that make them so hard to kill?
 * Cristobal: 4% - Ooh, a storm brushing by the Outer Banks and doing absolutely nothing! Gold star for originality, Cris.
 * Dolly: 33% - Kicked the shit out of South Padre but they came out of it reasonably well.
 * Ed: 10% - nuisance storm. Pissed on a couple people in North Texas but that's about it.
 * Fay: 34% - I think Fay's raised the sea level of the Gulf of Mexico about 8 feet. Pretty much every county in the state of Florida got at least two inches of rain from this thing.
 * Gustav: 81% - Gustav gave Cuba a shellacking and those floods in Haiti were really bad. Louisiana actually fared the best of the three. With 125 deaths and $10 billion in damage, I'd be stunned if Gustav isn't retired.
 * Hanna: 87% - Wow, the sitation in Haiti has turned into an epic catastrophe. This is Haiti's worst hit since Jeanne. Gonaives is a hellhole, simply put. If 535 dead doesn't earn retirement, then the WMO needs to be lined up and shot.
 * Ike: too early to tell but the forecast doesn't look good.
 * Josephine: 2% - At least the Verdes got a nice breeze.
 * Will revise as the season goes along. -- SkyFury 04:47, 25 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I think that Fay should be retired... if any of you lived in Orlando you'd understand the extent of the flooding that occured. Lakes that were 3 feet low a week ago are about 8 feet too high now and 4 landfalls... I cant' wait till the next one! 65.244.189.218 09:08, 25 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Having just looked at photos of Florida after Fay, I've upped my figure for its retirement. I've heard quite little about the impact of it here (UK) though; think I've seen it mentioned in the news briefly twice. - Salak 03:58, 26 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I disagree. I don't think it should be retired and I definately don't think it will be retired. The flooding wasn't severe enough or widespread enough, nor did it cause enough damage. The fact that it wasn't a hurricane doesn't help. Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 killed 124 people in Venezuela in catastrophic floods (the exact same number as Ivan) and wasn't retired. -- SkyFury 16:38, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

My own totally non-scientific predictions thus far: Really what it all boils down to, for me, are the criteria upon which storms get retired. Sure, they may have broken a record or been a nuisance, but really these are not things that storms get retired for. To date, I'd not be surprised if no storms are retired - but with September looming and Gustav looking dangerous, I'm sure that sentiment will change. Albireo 22:42, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 0%
 * Bertha: 0%
 * Cristobal: 0% - Let's face it, all three had pretty negligible impact in terms of damage/fatalities, and these are what get storms retired. No sense in giving them a piddly 1 or 2% chance when it ain't gonna happen.
 * Dolly: 40% - Relatively high damage but nothing eye popping.
 * Edouard: 0% - As above.
 * Fay: 33% - Helluva wet storm, but I'm not willing to up the odds unless some striking damage figures come out.
 * Gustav: 90% - Based on damages to Cuba, large-scale evacuations and disruptions. Could go higher when actual damage estimates come in.
 * Hanna: 90% - Heavy death toll alone puts it up there.
 * Ike: ** - Still active.
 * Josephine: 0% - Total dud.

I'm new but heres mine perdiction so far: I excluded cristobal on the list because it hardly did anything               Looks like this season already has another hurricane to my perdictions this  season will be big. J.T 2:54, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 0% - A little tiny storm that hit mexico and was brought to life by a pacific hurricane not happenin
 * Bertha: 1% - sure the long lived july storm but did nothing but died in iceland
 * Dolly: 42% Even though its an estimate its possible come on people
 * Edouard: 5% Face it this storm should have been retired back in 96 and I was 2 years old
 * Fay: 48% - If this name gets retired im runnin up the hills like allison
 * Gustav: 100% - Since we havent had an official cat 4 in a while this will be it for Gustav, estimate 20.0 billions
 * Hanna: 95% - 535 deaths If noel got retired last year this is the next name and if it isn't WMO or haiti is on crack oh hell na this storm killed someone as the same age as me die hanna i hope you get retired you worthless b*****
 * Ike: 55% - Already a cat 4 could be strongest of the season                 * Josephine: 0% - Turned around to myself turns outs shes a dud


 * Arthur - 0%
 * Bertha - 0%
 * Cristobal - 1%
 * Dolly - 60% Historically would have been retired. Wait for damage estimates.
 * Edouard - 10% Unlikely.
 * Fay - 20% Fair amount of Caribbean flooding, but not much.
 * Gustav - 100% Really obvious.
 * Hanna - 85% Over 500 dead in Haiti. No one wants another Gordon, and Noel was retired last year for a lot less. Probably gone.
 * Ike - Can't say for certain right now, but the forecasts look nasty. If it follows the forecasts, 90+%
 * Josephine - 0%

---

Let's be realistic here.

Bob rulz
 * Arthur - 0%
 * Bertha - 0%
 * Cristobal - 0%
 * Dolly - 30%
 * Edouard - 0%
 * Fay - 35%
 * Gustav - 95%
 * Hanna - 65%
 * Ike - Don't know yet
 * Josephine - 0%


 * I note that Ike managed to kill 47 or 48 in Haiti despite never getting very near...what's the total for hurricane dead in Haiti so far this year?It seems something in the geography or infrastructure there puts Haitians at particular risk.Do their nominations for retirement usually get honored?--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:25, 8 September 2008 (UTC)

Cleaning up the clutter
I've just archived the August discussion (excluding active storms) and Fay to their own archive pages; apologies if I wasn't supposed to do that. The page was just getting way too cluttered for me. Probably want to give Gustav its archive page soon, too. Thoughts?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:10, 2 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Agreed. I just archived some old July discussion last week. I would keep Gustav up for at least another week as aftermath reports come in. HPC is still issuing advisories on inland flood threats from the remnants of Gustav. -- SkyFury 16:50, 3 September 2008 (UTC)


 * How about partially archiving and leaving the last two or three parts of it? Do we really still need the sub-section about Gustav-as-an-invest? --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:01, 3 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Well just for the sake of keeping everything together and we don't have to keep it up much longer. I'd say by the time Ike is approaching landfall on the Gulf Coast (and the associated storm surge of posts come in) we should move Gus to a new home. -- SkyFury 06:10, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

What are the Storm Floaters?
I see that there are currently 3 GOES satellites active and explains "The GOES satellite has one visible-light imaging system that is kept in reserve for tropical storm situations. That camera is kept zoomed and focused on the current tropical system of interest" So how are so many floaters listed on  and ? 84.160.225.173 14:23, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I assume the camera can refocus to a given coordinate within just a few minutes or even seconds. It's not that each image is taken exactly simultaneously, just within the same 15 minute period. Those images can be put through a myriad of spectrums which you see in the variety of IRs (which have been fantastically expanded). I don't know this for certain, it's just what I assume is going on. -- SkyFury 17:05, 7 September 2008 (UTC)