Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season

August
New month, new storms. Here we go! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:37, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
New invest spotted by JTWC near Nalgae/13W. Low chance of formation as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:12, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
And another invest is spotted by JTWC after a brief period of inactivity in the WPac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:03, August 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at a high chance of formation. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:45, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14W
Just upgraded. JTWC already puts 14W as a tropical storm. This storm already looks like a TS, and could be Banyan very soon. T G  2 0 1 7 10:49, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Banyan
And JMA immediately followed suit. Not expected to become a typhoon. Archetypal fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:11, August 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * The intensity is at 40 mph/1004 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:24, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensified into 50 mph on 10-min and 60 mph on 1-min. Pressure down to 998 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:06, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well this formed quickly. JTWC forecasts a weak typhoon (up to 85 knots) but I think it might have minor potential to become the equivalent of a major hurricane if it defies the forecast. It's currently near Wake Island, but other than that this is just going to spin fish. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:59, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, this suddenly intensified. Would love to see this become a typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:24, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Banyan
Wow, this is really unexpected! Banyan is almost poised to become a typhoon now. Banyan is at 60 mph/992 mbar right now. T G  2 0 1 7 11:29, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 65 mph/990 mbar. Could become a typhoon by the end of the day. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:27, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could become pretty powerful. JTWC takes it up to a "C3 strength" typhoon by the 14th before weakening occurs. I'd even give a chance that this could explosively intensify to become a super typhoon, although that looks somewhat unlikely for now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:15, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Banyan actually looks good on satellite right now; in fact, it somehow reminds me of (the recent hurricane) Franklin at its peak. It seems like it's already a C1 by now, though JTWC currently puts Banyan at 70 mph (1-min) . I'd be delighted if this reaches C3 or even higher. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:22, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Banyan
Just as soon as you said that, Anonymous, Banyan became a typhoon. This has a high chance to go through RI. T G  2 0 1 7 18:57, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel like this could be another super typhoon if RI occurs. If not, a C4-strength typhoon is likely. JTWC takes it up to 110 knots (aka 125 mph). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:58, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * This already looks like a C3 typhoon, IMO. Banyan could double its intensity by tomorrow morning. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:11, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * It has cleared out an eye which is visible from there. Winds are up to 80 mph on 10-min and 90 mph on 1-min. Pressure down to 975 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:27, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dang it's already a C2 typhoon (90 knots/105 mph) according to JTWC. This thing is RIing looks like. A super typhoon is very possible. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:41, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow, that was quick. Now a C4 or a C5 can be possible; this system is moving slowly. Still a C2 however, but this will surely become stronger. I hope it becomes stronger than Noru, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:30, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Banyan has stalled in intensity (still 90 knots according to JTWC). A super typhoon is looking less likely, unfortunately. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:01, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sigh, I think you are right about that. Oh well, the next best thing that Banyan can do is to become a C3 or even a C4 before it dies; it is forecast to weaken by Tuesday or Wednesday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:24, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 75 knots (85 mph) (1-min) and will weaken further until dissipation while quickly approaching Alaska. Be glad that it at least became a modest typhoon out to sea... :) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:46, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensity down to 75 mph/980 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:11, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Banyan (2nd time)
It's dying. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:15, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * At STS strength, and IbAHAn, we go by the JMA grading not the JTWC. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 21:40, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * JTWC has issued their final advisory. Intensity is now 60 knots/985 mbars. At least Banyan gave us something to look at in the WPac. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:13, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Banyan
Gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:56, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
A new invest has formed. It is at a low chance of formation of now. 93W doesn't have that much time to organize and become a strong tropical cyclone. At most, 93W could steal the name Hato. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:08, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Actually, TG, Invest 93W is coming together very rapidly. The JMA has classified the system as a tropical depression with winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa). They expect the system to briefly become a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) and a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa) before nearing Greater China. The JTWC has also issued a TCFA in anticipation for Invest 93W's cyclogenesis. Citing the low shear, SSTs of around 31°C, and excellent outflow, they note that the models are indicating potential formation as well. At most, I foresee Invest 93W becoming a weak typhoon no stronger than Nesat was. Also, the JTWC estimates winds of 18 to 23 knots (16 to 20 mph) (1-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa). Here comes the potential 13th storm of the WPAC! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:13, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15W (Isang)
Now a TD according to JTWC. It is named Isang by PAGASA. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:48, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hato (Isang)
The first usage of the name Hato, which replaced Washi. The JTWC forecast only makes Hato a TS its whole life. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 10:47, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * While Hato/Isang (relatively?) intensified quickly to a TS, it will most likely remain to be a tropical storm due to its rapid movement (and the fact it is kind of near Taiwan, Luzon and their outlying islands). However, a Typhoon Hato or Severe Tropical Storm Hato is not entirely impossible; it's still in the open sea. Its first (and maybe only) landfall will most likely occur on Wednesday or Thursday in southern China, which gives it a small window to gather more strength. It is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon though, and I hope its effects won't be as severe as the ones that occurred in the Philippines in the previous years. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:45, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hato does seem to be moving pretty rapidly. JTWC however forecasts a peak of 60 knots, which is equivalent to 70 mph. A typhoon is entirely possible. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:33, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hato won't have enough time to become a typhoon. Its quick movement towards land will prevent any further strengthening than a strong STS. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 22:14, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sigh, I guess you are right. Forecast peak is still 60 kts. If it didn't go so fast, a typhoon would have likely happened. Well, maybe there is still a small chance because 60 knots is very close to typhoon status anyway. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:32, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * So far, four people were killed by this typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:29, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Hato (Isang)
110 kph. 975 mb. On the verge to become a C1. Forecast to make landfall near Hong Kong tomorrow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:05, August 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now a Category 1 typhoon according to JTWC. 75 mph (1-min). Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, August 22, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Hato (Isang)
And there you go. JMA just made it official. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:57, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Although it has strengthened into a typhoon, it is rocketing very quickly towards China. Hato could strengthen some more before landfall, though. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 21:43, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ha, the storm ate your earlier (from Aug.20) words TG. :P Had a feeling that typhoon status could have occurred with Hato. It won't strengthen much more until landfall near Hong Kong. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:37, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Welp, it's already a C2 typhoon. It's intensity at 85 mph in 10 min, 100 mph in 1 min/965 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:45, August 23, 2017 (UTC) P.S. It should make landfall near Hong Kong any minute now. P.P.S Hurricane Signal No. 10 is issued from Hong Kong making it the first since 2012.
 * Yep, Steve! I think Hato tried to redeem himself because I said that. XD Well, Hato made landfall on Hong Kong not that long ago. Hopefully they will fare well. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 10:16, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * So far, four people were killed because of the storm. Weakened to a C1 typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. T G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, 0.01% , 1% , 5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 25% , 30% , 35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++ , A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5  )

International names:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 80% - Nanmadol caused more damage and caused the same amount of fatalities as Typhoon Nabi did, and it got retired. Yes, other storms that struck Japan like Talas didn't cause as much damage but caused more fatalities. When it comes to Japan, damage is the key factor for retirement.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#049">15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : Grade: <font color="#049">A+++++ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - From a Category 1 minimal typhoon to a Category 5 super typhoon. It didn't seem possible to me, but it happened. Best storm I have ever witnessed. Unfortunately, two fatalities occurred, but that isn't enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: 40% - Sonca struck Indochina very hard for being so weak. Due to Sonca's slow movement, 30-40+ deaths have been reported in that region. Sonca also caused some of the worst flooding in Thailand in years. Due to those statistics, there is a moderate chance of Sonca being retired, but due to Thailand's track record, it is likely that Sonca won't be retired.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - Nesat was a very minimal typhoon that struck Taiwan, and didn't do much damage.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Caused some damage in Taiwan and China after Nesat did, increasing damage totals in Taiwan from both storms.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Nalgae failed to meet the forecast peak intensity. Nalgae didn't affect any land, so Nalgae will be back in 2022-2024.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : Grade: <font color="#FC0">C- Retirement: 0% - Failed to meet all forecasts and also managed to become the first ever Typhoon Banyan, resulting in a grade higher than a D+. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 14:06, August 18, 2017 (UTC)

PAGASA names:
 * All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
50% or more=italics

Here goes nothing...

International PAGASA That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:04, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

JMA names

 * Muifa - 0% - see you again in 5-7 years.
 * Merbok - 0% - same as above.
 * Nanmadol - 35% - if Nabi '05 got retired for causing similar death toll and cost of damage (30+ fatalities and nearly $1 billion damage), it is likely that Nanmadol may be retired. However, Talas '11 did not get retired, so I am doubtful if Nanmadol gets retired.
 * Talas - 10% - damaging, but Vietnam and the rest of Indochina has seen worse. (Also, its 2011 incarnation was more notable than this one.)
 * Noru - 8% - one of the best storms of the season. 2 deaths so far, damage still unknown, but uonestly Japan has seen worse. (Nanmadol '17 was even worse)
 * Kulap - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Roke - 5% - made impact, but not quite notable.
 * Sonca - 15% - see Talas. (Plus the fact that the retirement record of Indochina countries are not that good.)
 * Nesat - 20% - made impact too, and the damage totals are not yet fully reported. Its 2011 incarnation, just like Talas, was more significant in terms of impact. China has seen worse though.
 * Haitang - 10% - same with Nesat, although much weaker.
 * Nalgae - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Banyan - TBA - still active.

PAGASA names

 * Auring to Fabian: 0%. No, just no. See y'all in 2021
 * Gorio: 15%. Notable, but the Philippines had seen worse episodes of the enhanced SW monsoon. Maring '13 (Trami '13) wasn't retired, so why retire Gorio?
 * Huaning: 0%. Little impact to the Philippines.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, August 11, 2017 (UTC).

Retirements from Steve
Haven't done this here since 2015, but here you go.

(Retirement colors:  <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) '''

Notes:
 * A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

INTERNATIONAL NAMES
 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : <font color="#02C">0.01%, <font color="#A00">F- - Affected the Caroline Islands, but without damage/deaths. It lasted a week, which prevents me from giving this the "Z" grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : <font color="#086">5%, <font color="#F80">D+ - South China has been through much worse, so don't expect a retirement here.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : <font color="#F60">65%, <font color="#F50">D - Has a pretty decent chance at retirement due to the damage and deaths it caused in Japan.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#F50">D - Although it caused 14 deaths and quite a bit of damage, I don't forsee this being retired.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#006">A+++(x∞)  - One of the most awesome storms I have ever seen, becoming the 3rd longest lasting WPac storm on record as well as really unexpectedly becoming a C5 super typhoon during an explosive intensification stunt. 2 reported deaths, but damage should not be too bad. Retirement chances could increase pending the release of damage totals.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#F20">D- - A weakling, but defied forecasts and lasted for a week. This gives it a barely passing grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#F00">F - Although a failure, it reached a low pressure for a 40 mph storm as well as caused some impacts and deaths. Not as destructive as Talas though, but more deadly. The deaths from flooding and stuff could give this a slight shot at retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : <font color="#02C">0.01%, <font color="#A00">F- - Pathetic failure, but affected land and lasted two days.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#8F0">C+ - Not much damage caused
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not quite an epic failure, but was weak nonetheless. Caused more damage in the region Nesat hit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae :  <font color="#00F">0% ,  <font color="#A00">F-  - Weak fishie that was quite pathetic.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : <font color="#00F">0% ,  <font color="#8F0">C+  - Became a C2-equivalent, but did not go as far as it was forecasted to do during the time it was strengthening. Also a fishie that won't be retired even though it did slightly affect Wake Island.

PAGASA NAMES


 * All names: <font color="#00F">0% - None meet the requirements yet.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:19, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Might as well make some calls:

JMA names: PAGASA Names: Ryan1000 22:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Muifa - 1% - Only minor effects to some islands in the WPac. It'll be back in ~6 years.
 * Merbok - 6% - Caused some damage to southern China but they've snubbed worse storms than this.
 * Nanmadol - 40% - Somewhat notable storm for Japan, though I'm not sure if this'll be retired. They did snub a few storms that were worse, but we'll see.
 * Talas - 5% - Wasn't too bad for Vietnam.
 * Noru - 25% - Temporary percentage; currently the damage isn't known yet, but fortunately the death toll is low, even lower than Nanmadol.
 * Kulap - 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Sonca - 5% - Not much different from Talas.
 * Roke - 1% - Even less than Merbok, and that's not going either.
 * Nesat - 5% - Caused some damage to Taiwan and China but they've seen much worse and it's not going.
 * Haitang - 1% - Caused some damage, but again, it's not enough.
 * Nalgae - 0% - See Kulap.
 * All names - 0% - So far, no storm has met their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities, so nothing's getting retired from PAGASA yet.