Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/July

93L.INVEST
NRL's showing a new invest, on the border of the Carribbean, sitting on top of Martinique. --Patteroast 20:43, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, another invest in the Caribbean! Don't know where this one's going, models seem to be agreeing on the general track but not the exact track. I'm predicting, with still-limited data, but then again NHC just had a new update so I'll go check that, I'm predicting TS Christobal landfall on the Dominican Republic, then Cuba, then Cat. 1 landfall on Florida. Let's see what this one does. The oceans are still warming up, but the weason's getting active already. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:04, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Heavy shear. Looks like a small thunderstorm that would form a tornado in the midwest, except moving in the opposite direction. IMO this one has a 0.000...0001% chance. -Winter123 04:51, 3 July 2008 (UTC) (I shortened your number of zeros. Sorry, the page stretching out forever was driving me nuts. :P --Patteroast 23:44, 5 July 2008 (UTC))
 * Lol suit yourself. Anyway I was right, this got nowhere near developing. Sheared to death south of puerto rico-Winter123 03:40, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * A 0.000...0001% chance of what? Spawning a tornado in the midwest? Its chances are probably a lot higher than that, but you never know. SHIPS brings it up to a TS within 120 hours, I think it has a chance of emerging in the Gulf, though. Let's see what it does, if anything. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:43, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It practically turned to nothing overnight. This just should not have been declared.-Winter123 17:06, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off the coast of South Carolina
NHC's putting this as a low-risk for development, probably part of the frontal system and says "development is possible". If it does anything, it might hit Atlantic Canada or go into the open sea, or perhaps even create a Fujiwhara with Bertha, let's see if ti develops. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * This one looks almost pitiful enough for me to say it may have a chance. There's a clearly defined cyclonic turning to it even though you could probably take a boat through it and not get all that wet. -- SkyFury 18:10, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Meh, looks like nothing to me. Don't predict anything significant. - Enzo Aquarius 19:05, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Hmm, 6/9 models predict TS within 120 hours, could split into different parts, one joining Bertha, another heading towards Atlantic Canada, and another re-emerging in the Gulf of Mexico. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:32, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Well I am watching what just moved off Miami.Theres an upper level low moving east, but a weak midlevel spin right over miami. This is what i will be watching this evening. -Winter123 22:22, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Florida
It's just redeveloped in the Gulf, off the coast of Florida, and NHC has issued a low-risk for development. It could again head three different ways: this time either heading northeast towards New York and Nova Scotia, or stalling in the Gulf, or quickly heading into land to Southern Ontario while extratropical. Let's see what happens. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:00, 16 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Interesting little system, but I'm still keeping my thought from earlier. I see some storms and rain, but not a TS or higher. 20% of TD. - Enzo Aquarius 16:33, 16 July 2008 (UTC)
 * This is actually a new disturbance. Just because convection devlops from the same non-tropical weather system doesn't mean it's the same disturbance. For instance, a single tropical wave can and has produced two different storms. And plus, I think this is an entirely different low. The South Carolina one is now dissipating off the Outer Banks. With regards to it developing, I wouldn't hold my breath. -- SkyFury 22:24, 16 July 2008 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Woah, that was surprising. It's off the coast of Georgia (that's where you live), and heading northeast. NHC puts this as a medium-risk, but some models move this northeast while others stall it at the coast. SHIPS predicts a weak TS! Don't you just love it when these things happen?! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:09, 17 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Probably good waves down by my condo on Saint Simons Island. We got the worst of Tammy in 2005, ten inches I'm told (I wasn't there). I would imaging it needs to get away from the coast for it to do much of anything though. -- SkyFury 21:59, 17 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Wow, NHC has upgraded its chances up to high, it's expected to possibly form into a depression, and recon will be sent if nessecary. It might head up the US east coast and affect Atlantic Canada, probably won't be more than a TS, though. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:51, 18 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Finally someone noticed! I held off only because I didn't want to have two consecutive posts. I noticed it at around noon and it looks pretty impressive. Two big areas to watch now in the Caribbean and here off the beautiful Georgia coast. Track models almost unanimously take it up the coast of the Carolinas and out to sea. Only three models give it a name though. -- SkyFury 23:36, 18 July 2008 (UTC)


 * "SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORMING. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 PM THIS EVENING." Booya! -- SkyFury 00:02, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * NHC has it at high-risk, so judging by that statement, it should be turning to TD status in just over an hour. - Enzo Aquarius 01:46, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * High risk means it has a good chance, the above statement means it is happening...right now. Whenever NHC talks like that, bank on it. -- SkyFury 02:39, 19 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three
And there you have it. -- SkyFury 02:56, 19 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC is predicting TS status later today, so we may have Cristobal later on. They are even predicting further development, so a category 1 hurricane is probable (along the coast of the eastern states? Ugh). I predict a tropical storm full-out landfall on the southwestern coast of Nova Scotia in 6 or 7 days. - Enzo Aquarius 16:17, 19 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Now, a TS warning has been issued for part of South Carolina's coast and all of North Carolina's coast. I don't think this will be a hurricane, though, because as you head northwest of say, Maryland, the water gets cooler. However, NHC is predicting a TS landfall on Nova Scotia, possibly with similar reactions as to TS Gaston of 2004 (ie. people throwing rocks at the incoming waves). The water near the coast of North Carolina is VERY warm, but neither GFDL nor HWRF is predicting much development. Prepare for Cristobal! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:58, 19 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I say T-Minus 1 hour to Cristobal. - Enzo Aquarius 17:01, 19 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cristobal
And there we have it! NHC is still predicting further strengthening. - Enzo Aquarius 18:01, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Heyyy, Cris! Wazaupman? Not headed for the Carolinas are you? Hm,hm,hm? Didn't think so. Though I'm sure parts of the southeast would welcome the rain. -- SkyFury 18:19, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Lookst to be moving NNE, I think this will scrape both capes. (hatteras and cod). Though its the sickest TS ive seen in quite somet ime. -Winter123 20:51, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Whoa, time out; 55 knots? What happened to 45 knots? Anyone notice that the forecast intensity has been going up with every advisory? Cristobal looks decidedly unimpressive. It's gonna have to get happy pretty fast for that forecast to come to fruition. -- SkyFury 21:12, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * And are they sure it's going out to sea? The jet stream is way in canada and I don't see how. It looks like its barely moving or stalling. But maybe I'm just seeing things 0_o -Winter123 03:54, 20 July 2008 (UTC)


 * NHC predicts TS status through it's life up to a landfall at, as I mentioned prior, southwest Nova Scotia in 5 days. - Enzo Aquarius 04:00, 20 July 2008 (UTC)

Wow, NHC is frustratingly stubborn most of the time. It's clearly about to pass over the outer banks as I said, and yet their forecast still calls for an abrubt turn so it can miss! ArGH -Winter123 15:24, 20 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Cristobal still looks like sh!t. It's center is pulled far away from the deep convection and it just looks like a t-shirt that just got shredded by a dog. I doubt the Outer Banks are going to get much more that blustery winds and steady rain...just your average crummy weather day. -- SkyFury 17:22, 20 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Looks like the center just made landfall along the Outer Banks near Ocracoke. It also looks better organized. -- SkyFury 20:05, 20 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Looks like Nova Scotia may be spared from a landfall. NHC's predicting a slow about turn as it passes by Nova Scotia. - Enzo Aquarius 16:02, 21 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Woah, just LOOK at the latest NHC 5-day! Notice anything unusual? That's right, it's expected to turn south and miss the Azores to the south!! Of course, I don't know what the NHC's thinking, because to survive all the way there, it has to survive: wind shear, frontal systems, 10C (50F) cold water, land interaction, and possible absorbtion by the Bermuda high. If it does survive all that, and as a TS which NHC very strangely depicts, then it has a chance to do one or more of the following RARE things possibly no other or very few storms have done before: Hit France, hit the Iberian Peninsula, enter the Mediterranean, hit the Azores, Hit the Canary Islands, or even make it all the way around the high to re-emerge as a Cape Verde system, all while as Cristobal, and maybe even break ANOTHER longetivity record in July!! That is, if it survives it there, which many models predict it to weaken. However, ALL models predict Cristobal or its remnants to turn south, and at that time, The Bermuda high will be right in the Atlantic, smaller than usual, which might allow a turn south to become another Cape Verde system! This probably has NEVER happened before! Of course, it's too early to tell now, and the water's pretty cool around the northern side of the high, especially around the Newfoundland area for which NHC predicts NO major weakening. A combination of ocean currents keeps the area around the east Atlantic moderately cool: The Gulf stream keeps the northern part warm, but the southern part is kept cool by the southward cool current. Of course, all this is quite unlikely and is only based on NHC forecasts, models, and surface water temperatures. If this does happen, however, it will truly make the 2008 season a TRUE record-breaker. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:45, 21 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Whoa there Tiger, Cris is supposed to be extratropical before it even gets to Nova Scotia, why are we babbling about the Azores? A side note: 60 knots tomorrow? Wee! Now we have an actual storm. -- SkyFury 17:52, 21 July 2008 (UTC)


 * He's probably basing an Azores hit off of the current NHC track. If it follows the current track and heads southeast from Nova Scotia, it could hit the Azores, which would be very odd. Imagine a hurricane/tropical storm hit on western Africa. :P Unless it follows suit with Bertha and makes a quick turn northwards. Cristobal's future life may be quite interesting indeed. - Enzo Aquarius 20:12, 21 July 2008 (UTC)


 * I have my doubts that there's gonna be anything left of Cris by the time he gets within the same zip-code as the Azores. -- SkyFury 00:23, 22 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Yeah it's going to be flying and sheared heavily, then south of the azores itll be dealing with african dust and dry air. Still, will be interesting to watch. -Winter123 08:21, 22 July 2008 (UTC)

I'm actually considering taking that back. Cristobal is in an unbelievably favorable environment for this latitude at this time of year, as you can see on the water vapor. There is almost no shear by the looks of it. This could survive past the azores after all. And lol @ NHC desperately trying to cover their @$$es all the time- "...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON..." -Winter123 18:49, 22 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Unfortunate turn of phrase but that happens a lot. They're not trying to cover their asses, baroclinic forces often lead to last minute strengthening before the storm becomes extratropical as the storm is shifting to a new energy source. -- SkyFury 19:41, 22 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Last advisory issued, most models track its remnants toward Ireland. Nova Scotia got a soaking yesterday, with some areas getting over 160mm (6 inches) of rain, especially around its Southern tip. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:38, 23 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I personally think this is it for Cristobal, unless it hits some miraculous energy source. :P - Enzo Aquarius 16:12, 23 July 2008 (UTC)
 * This storm was literally vaporized by shear. The low level clouds are 500 miles behind the high level clouds, which are about to pass north of the azores. 0% chance of redevelopment. -Winter123 06:54, 24 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: near the Lesser Antilles
Now, this is probably nothing at the moment, but approximately 6/9 models predict TS within 120 hours, 8/9 for a TD or above. We could be looking at two possible zones of development here: In the Southwest Caribbean near Panama and Costa Rica, or off the coast of Central America in the Pacific. There is also another system off the Coast of Cape verde, but only 3/9 models predict a TS or above, but it looks like nearly all predict a TD or above. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:32, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * You sure they're not looking at 94L? It's headed that general direction. -- SkyFury 04:13, 15 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Southwestern Caribbean
Just popped up as meduim potential on NHC website. The Atlantic has gotten interesting in a hurry. -- SkyFury 21:43, 16 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Actually, it's the same AoI as above. The models have been predicting this, and finally it's on the TWO near the Southwestern Caribbean. It's only got a day or so to develop in the Atlantic, but after that it might develop in the Pacific and chase the line of storms that are Elida and Fausto. Could become a TS, but probably in the Pacific. It's still going to give Nicaragua and Costa Rica some rain, though. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:59, 16 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, since it's now got enough convection to warrent attention and NHC is only now advising on it, I think we should keep it a separate AoI. Previously, it was only a tropical wave that the models said could become something. Only now is it an actual disturbance. It should be an invest by now. -- SkyFury 22:14, 16 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Evident rotation, but still requires more development. I predict a TD, maybe a TS, but nothing more if it develops. - Enzo Aquarius 02:33, 17 July 2008 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
It's an invest now. NHC says a TD may develop before it crosses over into the Pacific. Models are dissagreeing on its track though. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:08, 17 July 2008 (UTC)


 * (edit conflict)Could cause flooding over Central America, SHIPS predicts strengthening even with land interaction, might head into the East Pacific but LBAR predicts it to head over Texas. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:16, 17 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I can't see anything more than a depression out of this storm now. It's too close to land. Maybe it'll become something in the Pacific. -- SkyFury 21:55, 17 July 2008 (UTC)
 * TD on one side, another storm on the other. Has already happened this season, I think it's quite probable. - Enzo Aquarius 03:31, 18 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It's just crossed into the East Pacific as 91E. INVEST. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:59, 19 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Cape Verde
Yes, I know what you're thinking, "you must be crazy, it's over land!" However, some models develop something out of this, but only GFS seems to really like it, and allows it to detatch from the main ITCZ. It likely won't develop, but this might be one to watch over the next week or so, which by then it will be (if it's still there) in the Central Atlantic. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:36, 18 July 2008 (UTC)


 * You read my mind, I was going to say that exact thing. Please don't post stuff that's further east than London (which this is). I don't start paying attention until it's west of Cape Verde. -- SkyFury 18:00, 18 July 2008 (UTC)


 * I have been watching this since it was at 10E. Well defined LLC or MLC, plenty of convection. But yeah as skyfury says it's pointless to talk about them until they are on the coast. Depending on conditions at the time the land-water transition is often fatal -Winter123 06:49, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Now, CMC and the mm5fsu33 models have joined forces with GFS in seriously predicting development. Just like the prediction of Bertha, this might develop, but this time it might not miss. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:01, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Call me. If it's still there Friday, then we'll talk. -- SkyFury 21:20, 19 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Um, I'm a little scared. This "wave" is like 300 miles across and has a definite rotation. If this survives the transition to water (Saharan dust is its only obstacle) it'll be a massive major hurricane in no time. Which on the other hand it has a greater chance of recurving so. We'll see. Should come off the coast Sunday night or monday, and threaten the islands (or not) next weekend. -Winter123 03:50, 20 July 2008 (UTC)


 * I've upgraded it to a full AoI, as part of the disturbance is coming off the coast. It looks particularily well-organised, and most models develop it. I think it might hit North Carolina as a cat. 3, but that's a pure guess O_0 . 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:45, 20 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Changed the name to fit the change in status. I'm still not that impressed. I've seen waves alot scarier than that come off the coast and fall apart before they even pass Cape Verde. As I understand from the NHC's discussion of the Bermuda disturbance, wind shear sucks out in the Central Atlantic right now. -- SkyFury 17:27, 20 July 2008 (UTC)

Going to come off at about 15N late tonight and i believe it will be a TD within a day of that. It has a well defined circulation and convection is firing near the center. The clouds that fanned out in front of it dissapated any dry air or saharan dust so I don't see anything stopping it. -Winter123 19:59, 20 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Actually, both CMC and GFS show heavy shear right when it emerges into the Atlantic, even though both models develop the system. I'm not sure how this will affect the system, but it's likely it might have to wait a few days. After that, I don't know, I don't see anything stopping it from becoming a hurricane if it survives the transition. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:30, 20 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, the NHC seems to think highly of the wave... "A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN

AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY." I've never heard such strong wording for something that hasn't even come off the coast. undefinedundefined 00:43, 21 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow. Just wow. Both CMC and GFS predict TWO systems to come off of Cape Verde. Based on this, I predict, by the end of July, 6 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. If this came true, it would closely match the record-breaking 2005 season, with 7 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes before August 1. This season's going to be a real record-breaker, as Bertha has already shown. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:56, 21 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm not writing this one off yet. If it makes it past 30W in one piece, I'll start showing this one some more respect. -- SkyFury 17:54, 21 July 2008 (UTC)


 * NHC is giving this a moderate risk, wouldn't be surprised to see this develop into Edouard. It's looking quite developed, so I definitely see this becoming a named storm. - Enzo Aquarius 20:04, 21 July 2008 (UTC)

look realey impressive and also look like it will not affect the antilies for sure not the south expect it to turn out to sea maby the same track that bertha took


 * First of all, "Please sign your comments using four tildes." Second, learn how to spell. Third, I have to disagree. This has no chance. It's being killed with dry air and dust. But maybe it cleared the air out for the next major wave. -Winter123 18:02, 23 July 2008 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
There we have it. 13:51, 22 July 2008 (UTC)
 * What, no discussion?! CMC takes it towards Bermuda, making it look a lot like a re-Bertha. The problem with INVESTS this far east is, you never know where it will hit, but NHC has downgraded it to a low-risk, meaning it will likely have to wait a few days before it can do anything, probably shear. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:41, 23 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, seeing as we've got a Category 2 hurricane making landfall in south Texas, a weak disturbance out in the far distant Atlantic is not going to garner much attention. This one is one of those wait and see kind of invests. It's certainly not doing anything right now. -- SkyFury 19:38, 23 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Poof. -- SkyFury 18:16, 25 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Un-poof :P. While it looks a ton better than the last couple days, it probably wont amount to anything more than a strong depression/possibly a weak TS. 24.224.190.96 19:22, 25 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Geez, what is this thing...Chuckie? It disappeared and then came right back. -- SkyFury 20:59, 25 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, don't look now, but both GFDL and SHIPS turn this thing into a cat 1! Expected to turn out to sea, though. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:51, 26 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Southwest of Bermuda
I know, another "nothing" AoI, but the mm5fsu33 a and b experimental models actually develop something out of this, and heads it towards the US east coast. The water's pretty warm there, but for anything to develop, it would first have to escape the grip of the Bermuda High, and most models just aren't allowing for that. It most likely will be nothing, but it's part of the hole in the Bermuda high that Bertha has punched in, and it will probably be nothing, but you never know. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:36, 18 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Why don't we post on the potentially threatening invests in the Caribbean and off the US east coast that appear on the verge of getting numbers rather than going on wild goose chases on stuff over Africa and passing rain showers left behind by Bertha. We have more pressing matters at the time being. Two potential new depressions, a record-setting former hurricane and two quite vigorous storms in the Eastern Pacific if anyone's bothering to pay attention to those. And that's not to mention the Category 2 typhoon that just spanked Taiwan. -- SkyFury 18:06, 18 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Um, no. I saw this yesterday and almost posted on it but thought it had no chance. Then today it's a low risk by NHC! But they say environmental conditions are no good. Ha, bad environment didnt stop bertha! -Winter123 03:47, 20 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, we'll see. Bertha was already well developed by the time it was in this general area. I don't expect anything significant. - Enzo Aquarius 04:07, 20 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Bertha just passed through somewhat unfavorable conditions, this thing's looking to form in worse conditions...quite different. I don't even think there's a drop of rain in this thing and with that kind of wind shear, it's not going to get any. -- SkyFury 17:33, 20 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Actually, NHC says there are thunderstorms and convection associated with the system. It will probably be consumed by the Bermuda High, though, unless it somehow keeps up and re-emerges near the Carolinas. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:33, 20 July 2008 (UTC)