Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cape Verde
10%. Yqt1001 13:09, September 23, 2011 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. The CV season isn't over yet! And some models bring this to category 2 strength while heading northward on a path like Lisa of last year. Yqt1001 19:06, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it will become a major hurricane and a fishie at the same time.10Q.INVEST 19:51, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * 50%! Yqt1001 23:44, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I see a Lisa (2010)-like storm from this invest. Maybe we're about to witness our sixth 'P' named storm ever? Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:33, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ophelia is a ways away from this invest, but this thing will be heading northward into colder waters anyways, following a similar path to, say Fred of 2009, but nowhere close to the same intensity. The season is starting to wrap up by now, and since it's late September, it's now highly unlikely we will see any long-lasting major hurricanes here on out. We have a new AOI north of the Bahamas, but it will be heading northward into colder waters anyways. Ryan1000 02:03, September 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * More than likely AndrewAllanjeffs 02:02, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

80%! TD17 is likely to form later today. This is by far the fastest developing non-frontal/non-BOC wave this year. Yqt1001 05:44, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

Just like the models called for, here it is, following behind Ophelia. This one seemed to take everybody by surprise, and it did come on pretty fast. I don't think this came on the TWO until early Thursday. NHC doesn't even have a floater on it yet. The dynamical models, GFDL and HWRF, are both in pretty good agreement on taking it roughly north and intensifying it to a Category 1 hurricane out over the open Atlantic. The global models, meanwhile, look clueless. The GFS doesn't even see it at all while the ECMWF kills it immediately. Given the current conditions, however, strengthening seems likely at least in the short term. We'll see if it does in fact reach hurricane strength. I hope so. This has been such a lackluster season from a power standpoint. Ryan, I would caution you that while the Cape Verde season may be winding down, the season as a whole is far from over. I'll still be interested to see if we have an active monsoon trough over the Caribbean in October. That has the potential to produce some ugly storms. -- SkyFury 08:45, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seventeen
Yep. It's coming. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:54, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

...Out to sea. It may become a strong TS, but it's going to be recurved pretty soon(as it almost always does at this time of year) signifigantly limit the chances of this storm affecting land as it heads northwest. Anyhow, it bears watching. Ryan1000 12:58, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

Poised to become Philippe. Can anyone else tell me how to get my username HurricaneOwen99 from wikipedia to here that would be fantastic! 97.76.107.234 18:34, September 24, 2011 (UTC) aka OWEN2011

You could make a new account, or rename yours(if you can). This storm is poised to be a fish, but although the season itself is far from over, at the rate we are going, we would need a miracle to have a very strong storm in the face of all this shear. We only had 3 hurricanes out of, what will likely be 17 by tomorrow, storms. The ACE this year is just pathetic for a season with so many storms, and our luck this year has just been so high. Out of all of the (17) storms this year, only Irene was exceptionally bad among them, and only Irene and Katia became major hurricanes. Eric, I agree 2011 is not over, but unless atmospheric conditions change at some point in the next 2-3 weeks, we won't get anything bad. Maybe Irene was the chosen one after all. Ryan1000 18:54, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

The song remains the same on this one. The dynamical models continue to make this a hurricane. The GFDL actually brings it up to 90 knots. I personally think the HWRF solution is more likely, taking it up to about 75 knots. The global models, meanwhile remain very unenthusiastic. I think the NHC is keeping the forecast below hurricane strength out of respect for those models. -- SkyFury 19:32, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, NHC says that their intensity forecast is a conservative blend of all models. I think a hurricane is likely from this, we'll see what happens though. ATCF has Phillipe at 5pm too, so we'll see about that also. Yqt1001 19:36, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I tried making an account, but it says "Sorry, we are unable to register you at this time". 108.9.68.10 20:41, September 24, 2011 (UTC) aka OWEN2011


 * Now is ts PhilippeAllanjeffs 20:58, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Philippe
Here we go! ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... 40mph winds, still 1006mb. Yqt1001 20:57, September 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * And Philippe is born. Hurricane Owen 97.76.107.234 21:01, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Forecast shows a hurricane in 2 days. Yqt1001 21:03, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The sixth 'P' named storm on record (and the second earliest sixteenth storm) has been christined. We currently tie 1936, 2003, and 2008 for the seventh most active season ever, behind '05, 1933, 1887, '95, 2010, and 1969. Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:12, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be surprised if Philippe doesn't become a hurricane, but it's smaller than Ophelia and it's northwest movement could take it into unfavorable conditions as soon as tomorrow. But we'll see. We could use a 'cane or two after all the epic fails we had, but the atmosphere in ATL, despite being able to let all these storms form, won't let them strengthen too much. And Philippe looks like it could follow Lisa of last year, or be a much weaker form of Fred or Julia. It'll probrably be a fishie either way. Ryan1000 23:57, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Andrew, I'm going to assume the typo was supposed to be 2010 right? I think we have already set the record for the most piece of shit storms in a season. This season needs five more storms to run the table. Still possible but not likely. The real story of this season will be Irene, first and foremost, and the near-complete power outage. We've had 16 storms, but all but two of them have struggled to intensify. Also of note, there has not been a major hurricane in the Caribbean Sea since Paloma, November 9, 2008. That's quite a drought. We did have three Category 2s in the Caribbean last October, but Paloma was the most recent major in the Caribbean. That said, the current drought is nothing compared to the six year drought to begin the 1990's (Hugo '89-Roxanne '95). However, it really is a head-scratcher given the active cycle we're on now. Hurricane Georges in 1998 broke a similar drought (there were just four Caribbean majors in the entire decade of the 1990s. There were that many in 2005 alone). -- SkyFury 05:18, September 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * I did mean 2010.
 * (That was me BTW) Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:55, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * If this season keeps on going on at the dead rate we have now, it will also be the first season since 2006 to not have a hurricane in the GOM. And during a a La Nina year too. That's just downright weird. Most of the storms this year have been forming far out to sea and dissipating far out to sea. None of them have made it to the Caribbean sea as signifigant hurricanes, let alone threatening storms(unless you cont Irene, which, though not passing through the Caribbean sea, did smack the Bahamas pretty good). I think it's just about fair to say Ophelia is dead, or will be by tomorrow, and Philippe is just turning out to be another disappointing storm. Ryan1000 17:38, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe the models aren't crazy for having a hurricane coming from this...wind jump to 60mph. Yqt1001 20:45, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * If there are no hurricanes in the GOM this year, that would be the first time since 2001 that that happened in a non-El Nino year. The La Nina they're talking about right now is formative and expected to be weak. But still. We've had just three hurricanes this year. That is the fewest total by this point in the season in a non-El Nino year since 1984. This is also tied for the second fewest total by this point, period, since 1994 (2009 had just two by this point). Of all the seasons that had at least 16 storms, not one of them had fewer than seven hurricanes (1936, 2003). And of the six seasons that had at least 17 storms, none of them had fewer than ten hurricanes (1933) with an average of 11.8. We'd need a historic October to come even close to those numbers. The average peak intensity of storms so far this year (excluding Philippe) is 59 knots. Compare that to 2005, which had an average peak of 76.8. 1933 is the only season with at least 16 storms that averaged less than 70 knots (69.3). The record, in case anyone's curious, belongs to 1950, which averaged a staggering 100.4 knots. It's the only season with at least ten known storms to hit triple digits. 2011 may set a record in the other direction. -- SkyFury 01:34, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this year is going towards record low average windspeed. We'd need a miracle of an October/November to turn that around, and at the rate this season is gone, I have a hard time seeing that hapening. Eric, in my book, 1961 holds the record in question for highest average windspeed at 101.5 knots, because as far as i'm concerned, Inga was the same storm as Simone which was the same storm as Hattie(aka Inga was the same storm as Hattie IMO). This year's EPac season is heading in the other direction though. We were only forecast to have 1 to 3 majors at the start of the year, but we already have 4 C4 storms, and the knot per storm average this year is 97.5 in EPac which, if this keeps up, will be an all-time record there. If we get one more C4 in October, then it will be over 100. The ACE/storm this year is already over 9 in EPac, and of all the seasons since 1995 to now in EPac, only 1995 itself has a higher ACE/storm than this year, with 10. 1992, 1993, and 1990 also got a pretty big number too. Ryan1000 04:27, September 26, 2011 (UTC)

Philippe is having a hard time strengthening...60mph still, no longer supposed to become a hurricane. How many times have we seen this this year..? I think this is the 3rd time. Yqt1001 19:06, September 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * At least four times. Aside Philippe it was the same with Ophelia, Nate, and even Maria. When she became a hurricane that was much much later than expected. Maybe a couple of the first six tropical storms hat at one time hurricane forces winds in their forecasts as well but I don't remember. --88.102.101.245 06:20, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, I have 1961's average at 97.7, good for second place, check your numbers again. It was the unnamed, 35 knot tropical storm that killed it. Take that one storm out and the average jumps to a ridiculous 104. 1950 is the only one I've found that hit the century mark. That's an increadible feat. The greatest tropical cyclone season in world history, 1997 WPac, averaged 95 knots through 31 storms! Conversely, the post-1950 record low in the Atlantic was set by 1997 at 56.2. 1987 was the only other season to average below 60 (59.3). The lowest non-El Nino year was 1984 at 61.25. We need help to reach that. The more I look at these numbers, the more bizarre this season seems. -- SkyFury 08:37, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, you didn't read my last post right. In the best track, it states tropical storm Inga was a seperate storm in the season, but in my book, Inga was the third name of Hurricane Hattie when it crossed into the east Pacific and became Simone, then recrossed into the BOC and became Inga. So the total number of storms in 1961 was 10, not 11, and, excluding Inga, the total sum of knots of all of the storms in the season was 1015, divided by 10 is 101.5, as I said above. The best track doesn't state Inga was the same storm as Hattie, but in my book, it is. That's why 1961 is the record holder to me. Ryan1000 11:01, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Simone degenerated into a remnant low before reforming into Inga in the Bay of Campeche. The connection between Simone and Inga is somewhat tenuous and hotly debated but Simone did degenerate, so that's why I still consider it a seperate storm even though Hattie-Simone at least contributed to its formation, similar to TD-11E and Hermine last year and TD9 and Katrina in 2005. If you exclude both TS6, which barely made it to tropical storm intensity, and Inga, 1961's average would jump to an unbelievable 109! Wow! -- SkyFury 18:42, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, back to Philippe. He doesn't look like a sane storm this evening. ---88.102.101.245 19:11, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

Poor Philippe is a naked swirl with the convection very far to the east of his LLC. Yqt1001 19:11, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

Yet another disappointment... only 45 mph winds and weakening as we speak. IMO 1961 is the record-keeper, and nothing can change that. And Ophelia returns yet again LATER THIS AFTERNOON. It has an outside chance of becoming a hurricane as it heads northward towards Bermuda then out to sea, but it will do anything to hold on. If I had to nickname this storm, it would be "Philippe the phailure". Ryan1000 19:50, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

now again at 45mph what is left of him should be watch careful because he moving west instead of north Allanjeffs 00:49, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

Looks better than ever.10Q.INVEST 02:01, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

Never understimate a storm Ryan you have do it with Maria and Ophelia Philippecan give you surprises also now that it is strenghtening and hilary is now a TSAllanjeffs 03:03, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph in the "conservative forecast" (as the NHC calls it. Atleast they are being honest :P). They have Philippe weakening rapidly in the face of Ophelia's outflow though. Yqt1001 03:16, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hear a theme song coming on for this storm: "Ah ah ah ah, stayin' alive, stayin alive, ah ah ah ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive, ah ah ah ah, stayin' aliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiive..." *starts dancing* -- SkyFury 17:39, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't know how this thing is keeping itself alive in the face of the shear it's in(honestly, Philippe should have died 2 days earlier when it was completely devoid of convection), but no matter what happens overall, it should die out 2 or so days from now, without becoming a hurricane and staying well out to sea. Ophelia all of a sudden has gotten interesting though, perhaps it could hit Newfoundland, after Maria. Ryan1000 20:03, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it become a hurricane.10Q.INVEST 20:05, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Philippe is no longer expected to dissipate in the next 5 days. Might have a chance of affecting land if it does indeed go west like models show. Yqt1001 20:45, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm still not entirely confident that will happen though, because there still is a lot of shear northwest of Philippe(in the direction it's heading), and if it keeps up that northwest pace for the next day or so, it will eventually run into some of the outflow of Ophelia, if the shear north of him doesn't get him. Look at the sattelite imagery. It's gradually becoming more elongated and weakened. Ophelia is also under some shear which will keep her in check from here on out. October is just around the corner, so the environment in the open Atlantic is getting less and less favorable for development. I'm not exactly saying Philippe will be a failure, but the odds aren't exactly in favor of seeing a doomsday future from this storm either, and i'm not looking forward to that from Philippe, let alone Ophelia. Still, October is certainly no month to be neglected. Stay tuned.Ryan1000 00:46, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * New rainbands...and new convection.10Q.INVEST 02:24, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * What? Philippe isn't developing new convection at all. Last I checked he's getting torn apart, as I said above. I guess his fate is closing in. Ryan1000 03:26, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * That was only for a short time, now he's being pulled apart again.10Q.INVEST 12:06, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just in case you missed it on Jeff Masters' blog; he denotes a chance of about 5 percent that Philippe would hit the Bahamas and/or the East Coast because of likely the STR would force him due west. The big IF is wether he'll survive Ophelia's shear. --88.102.101.245 15:46, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * He's going to hang on for these 5 days.10Q.INVEST 20:53, September 30, 2011 (UTC)

"...PHILIPPE COULD WELL SUFFER A BEHEADING AT THE HANDS OF OPHELIA." Oh James Franklin, how I've missed you so! -- SkyFury 06:37, October 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Philippe best than ever now with 65mph and Hurricane status is not out of the question Allanjeffs 20:45, October 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ophelia is pulling her little brother right behind her out to sea, but I do not expect to see a hurricane from Philippe just yet. Ryan1000 22:09, October 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * 70mph now just shy of hurricane statusAllanjeffs 03:00, October 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * And like Ophelia, Philippe just keeps strengthening. This is remarkable. At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if Philippe became a hurricane. Shear from Ophelia, however, should put a stop to this pretty soon. -- SkyFury 03:24, October 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * It could, but it would only last for 6 hours.10'Q.'INVEST 04:20, October 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NHC continues to weaken Philippe in the long run, so I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane, but it would have to do it only briefly before weakening. Ryan1000 06:09, October 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still out there, but it's going to run into some shear as it heads seaward, and by the time Philippe is done, I would expect the overall ACE to be 100, if not a little higher. EPac is slowing down, but we still have space for another long-lived major hurricane for October. ATL isn't showing signs of having anything else for the next 3-4 days. Ryan1000 11:08, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Philippe, cont'd
Just as fast as Philippe got to 70mph, he is down to 50mph "in the hands of Ophelia". Still expected to strengthen again in 3-5 days though. But man, the storms this year have no problem getting to 60mph, but 75mph seems like the coveted category 5 status. :P Post season will probably reveal a Hurricane Philippe when he had a defined eye, just ASCAT wasn't around to confirm the hurricane force winds (a day after that ASCAT found 65mph winds so I don't think the upgrade is too unlikely). I also created a new section to discuss Philippe as the last one was getting very long. Yqt1001 20:37, October 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * Thanks for that but it looks like again is gonna strength because it has develop a lot of thunderstorms and in terms of ACE we are like 97 and we are near above normal and with Ophelia and philippe i think we could get to 100 and what I see is that the MJO is coming at full force and we could squeezeed another 4 name storms.Allanjeffs 20:55, October 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I know. The GFS is pretty much predicting that the entire Caribbean will be covered with convection..that's how strong of an MJO they are predicting of bringing to us. If this were to be true, we are pretty much looking at a massive storm in the W Caribbean. Not to mention that we could see storms elsewhere since the entire Atlantic is predicted to be green. Yqt1001 23:04, October 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt, October normally isn't a month for storms to form in the heart of the open Atlantic ocean. The conditions near Philippe will continue to deteriorate in the next several days as he heads seaward. Most of the storms that develop in October do so in the Caribbean sea. October of 2005 was the most active October on record. We had a massive trough dive into the Caribbean during that year, which spun up Stan, Tammy, Wilma, Alpha, and Beta, and the unnamed subtropical storm which hit the Azores and Vince also developed in the northeastern Atlantic ocean. Most October storms form down near the Caribbean and hit us close to home in Southern/Central Florida, but at times, storms can reach the eastern U.S. coastline. Hazel was a huge exception in 1954, as was the 1893 Charelston Hurricane(though it formed in late September, along with Inez of 1966). However, October is certainly no month to be neglected overall. The peak of the season is September 10, but if you look at the climatology after September 10, you'll see the season reaches a secondary peak in October. That peak happens on October 19(the day Wilma became a C5), because the monsoon trough that helps fuel monstorous late-season EPac storms like Kenna, Pauline, Liza, and Rick extends back into the eastern Caribbean sea by that time. If the storms can organize there while the shear remains low, then things just go to hell. Mitch was a good example of that, along with Fox(1952), Michelle, and Paloma, ect. I am well aware the season is not over, but the ACE/storm this year just sucks in NAtl. EPac did a pretty good job, to be honest, in terms of ACE/storm, the highest since 1993. Ryan1000 23:36, October 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, October is favourable enough for storms to form out of nowhere. Look at the models..they show 2 storms forming outside of the Caribbean in the next week. Anyways Philippe isn't as beheaded as we thought...ASCAT found 65mph winds..AGAIN. ...PHILIPPE STILL ON AN INTENSITY ROLLER COASTER...MAXIMUM WINDS NOW 65 MPH... Also it is good to note that Philippe has another chance at hurricane strength in 3 days. Philippe really needs to write a survival guide for storms in hostile conditions because he seems good at it. Yqt1001 14:55, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Haha, wow. GDFL blows Philippe up to a 200mph hurricane. I know that the GDFL is a horrible model, but I didn't think it was this bad. But still, most models take Philippe up to hurricane strength in 3 days now. Yqt1001 16:02, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * What I meant was October is a completely different month from August and September. Yqt, the Cape Verde season has pretty much shut down by now. A very powerful extratropical storm is now dominating the Cape Verde Islands, which will tear apart any waves that threaten to cross the Atlantic from here on out. The area that sees the most development in October is usually the western Caribbean sea, not exactly the open Atlantic. It's not unusual for storms to form in the far northeastern, or northern central, Atlantic in October as did Grace of 2009 and Vince of 2005, but the heart of the central Atlantic rarely ever sees signifigant activity in October. However, the cold front that pushed Ophelia, and will push Philippe, out to sea has also spun up an area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean sea rescently, which, at this time of year, definitely bears watching for future development. See the NHC's latest sattelite imagery. That extratropical low south of the Azores is tearing up all of the storms near the CV islands, and there is nothing cyclonic along the cold front that will recurve Philippe. That area of T'storms in the western Caribbean is what i'm worried about in the long run; I just have bad feelings about it. Ryan1000 19:57, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * I understand what you are saying Ryan, and I agree. I just think that we will see a storm develop in the MDR region this October. Not sure why, but the conditions look semi-favourable in a week or so. Anyways, NHC thinks Philippe will make it to hurricane status before shear reaches 50kts. Yqt1001 20:51, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

I spy with my little eye..a mid-level eye. Not fully surrounded by deep convection because of the extreme shear, but as shear lessens we should probably see our 5th hurricane. Yqt1001 01:35, October 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * Seems like it's likely to have hurricane strength at least for a day, according to NHC's forecast.10'Q.'INVEST 02:48, October 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Go Philippe! PHILIPPE IS A RARE CREATURE. IT HAS AN EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO INDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH. Yqt1001 11:53, October 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Philippe seems to be lasting a long time as a tropical storm: 10 days so far. I wouldn't be surprised if it lasted 5 more days, outlasting Katia to become possibly the longest-lasting storm of the season. Its ACE is likely to increase above Maria soon, and will probably be above 10 when it dissipates. Not bad for a storm predicted to dissipate 5 or so times. Dree12 20:03, October 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * In terms of ACE, Philippe has a good chance of passing Laura of 1971 for having the second-highest ACE of any non-hurricane in ATL, assuming he doesn't become a hurricane. Philippe is currently at 8.31 and Laura had 8.61. The 3rd storm of 1913 holds the #1 record at about 15.63. Ryan1000 20:30, October 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not completely convinced Philippe will intensify into a hurricane just yet. The NHC has had many failed hurricane predictions this year (Emily, Nate, and Philippe once already). The longetivity of Philippe remains amazing considering the environment it was in though. Dree12 23:10, October 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The weakest point of a forecast is the intensity forecast. They are usually incorrect. In the case of Nate, he succumbed to the driest air I have ever seen and fell apart right after it's peak intensity. Philippe went west instead of east and Emily...I'm not sure what what happened there (I was on vacation). In the case of Ophelia, she was only supposed to peak at 85mph up until the point she started RIing. Wilma (2005) only got a forecast to major hurricane strength when he was an RIing category 1, his record intensity wasn't even forecast to happen once. I personally think Philippe will become a hurricane, Dvorak T numbers are starting to show hurricane strength and he has a well defined eye. Shear is lessening and dry air isn't a problem at the moment. All it really takes is some more confirmation of 65kts winds, either through ASCAT or most Dvorak T numbers being 4. Yqt1001 23:31, October 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm just saying if it doesn't become a hurricane, it will hold the record for the second-highest ACE of any storm that didn't reach hurricane strength, after the 1913 storm. However, it has a better shot at becoming a hurricane now that it's better organized. Ryan1000 08:31, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Philippe looks like it might be weakening now... I'm still not sure we'll have our 5th hurricane just yet. Dree12 19:45, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure of hurricane strength from Philippe either. BTW, I put Ophelia into the September archive since it formed in September and she doesn't really need her own archive, since she wasn't very notable overall. Ryan1000 20:12, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Agreed. I don't think Philippe will become a hurricane, though it's possible he already has. The NHC mentioned the other day that Philippe's mid- and lower level eye features briefly alighned overnight and convection increased. It is very possible that Philippe was briefly a hurricane at that time. It's still possible it could reach hurricane strength officially, but my gut feeling is that Philippe missed its chance. -- SkyFury 20:27, October 5, 2011 (UTC
 * NHC says that Philippe is organizing, so I still think he has a chance at hurricane strength, but I'm not as sure as I was a day ago. We'll see what happens. Yqt1001 21:39, October 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * Update: With an ACE of 9.62, Philippe has overtaken Laura as the tropical storm with the second highest ACE. Still hoping for a hurricane. Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:43, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Philippe has organized well last night, now has 70mph winds. From the discussion it sounds like the NHC is waiting for microwave to confirm a well defined eye and Dvorak T#s to confirm 65kts winds. Yqt1001 11:47, October 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * 70 mph. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:47, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Microwave imagery found an eye, Hurricane philippe is likely to come today. Yqt1001 12:13, October 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * finally a hurricane AL, 17, 2011100612,, BEST, 0, 274N, 604W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 0, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, PHILIPPE, D, and when the season is over we can have seven or eight not bat for me Allanjeffs 12:56, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Philippe
Laura's second-best is secure. 70 kts, 985 mbar per the latest NHC advisory. Well done, Philippe! --HurricaneMaker99 17:06, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

I'm just wondering if Philipp is the first hurricane which was promoted to a 'cane with the 50th advisory only.Or have there been storms which became hurricanes even later? --88.102.101.245 17:53, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

Yay! Hooray! *blows party favor* Philippe finally did it! Philippe fell just six hours short of tying Lisa of 2004's recon era record for the longest time to reach hurricane strength without degenerating at 12.5 days. The overall record still belongs to the third storm of 1913, which lived for 17 days without ever becoming a hurricane. However, data for storms prior to the beginning of aircraft recon in 1943 should be taken with a grain of salt. However, had Storm 3 become a hurricane, it probably would have been on September 9, it's 14th day of existence, which would still give it the record. Philippe does hold at least the recon era record for longest time spent at tropical storm strength prior to becoming a hurricane. And I can almost guarantee you that 2011 is the only season in history with three storms that took at least nine days to reach hurricane strength. -- SkyFury 18:49, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay Philippe! :D NHC sounds like they are finally happy to see something new with Philippe: AFTER 49 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...OVER TWELVE DAYS...PHILIPPE HAS FINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE. Yqt1001 19:09, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 85 mph now. The ACE this year could have been much higher if more of our storms got their act together, but that didn't happen. EPac's heading in the opposite direction of ATL though; all but one of that season's storms have become hurricanes(assuming Irwin and Jova make it), and even so, Fernanda had a higher ACE than Calvin and entered CPac, the only storm to do so this season. If you do use ACE back in 1913, the ACE of storm 3 would be 15.6325 as I mentioned earlier. However, since we didn't have the hurricane hunters until shortly after the 1943 Surprise Hurricane, it is possible that storm had been a hurricane briefly, or a weaker TS, through it's lifetime. Josephine of 1990 never became a remnant low in it's lifetime, but it did weaken to a depression for some time, and it took 13.75 days to crack a 'cane, so it still holds the record. I will take Philippe for a good second place though. Nicely done, I say! Ryan1000 00:25, October 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Philippe could strengthen even more. HurricaneOwen99 01:25, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90mph winds now. Yqt1001 03:00, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I forgot about Josephine! Yeah, but she was a tropical depression most of her life so it's hard to give her much respect. Philippe still holds the record for longest time as a tropical storm before becoming a hurricane, and if you're talking about the recon era, you don't have to use nearly so many qualifiers. Philippe is just having a blast now. He might squeak his way up to Cat 2 strength before the shear gets there. I wouldn't put it past him. The past few weeks with Ophelia and Philippe have been really fun. Two long-lived storms back-to-back have made for great theatre. Throw in Hilary in the Pacific and what's not to like? -- SkyFury 05:40, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * It seems that Philippe isn't much impressed of the trough so far. Is stubbornly ignoring what the NHC expects him to do, appearantly. :D --88.102.101.245 09:17, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

Philippe is falling apart. Last NHC advisory had him at 85mph, but now his center is fully exposed and seems likely he will be a TS at the next advisory and extratropical in the next 24 hours. So much for surviving the shear as a hurricane..but he's still surviving deadly shear. Yqt1001 19:14, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

The NHC forecast takes it to Iceland still tropical. Weird. (on a side note, Philippe is currently the longest lived North Atlantic tropical cyclone since 2008's Bertha) Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:10, October 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * It takes it to Iceland extratropical.10'Q.'INVEST 20:34, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Philippe
And it continues weakening.10'Q.'INVEST 20:35, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

Didn't see this. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:47, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

Yep we've got the cold front from the US which is absorbing Philippe. Hurricane Kiewii 21:17, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

Philippe is lasting rather long for a tropical system of his strength, but even if he did last a rather long time, he won't be able to wind us out of the ACE problem ATL is dealing with. Even 2006 had a higher ACE/storm than this year thus far. EPac just doesn't know when to stop. We have 9 hurricanes there(Jova will become one by, say tomorrow) and Kenneth is coming too, which could be a yet 10th hurricane there. ATL will need a historic October to get out of the debt we're in right now in terms of storm intensity, but even if we don't get more than one or two more storms in October, it's better than getting nothing in the conditions we're in now. I would expect some additional activity here, but as long as MJO is staying in EPac, we're going to be dead. Ryan1000 21:50, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

In terms of ACE we are above normal with 106 and i think at the end of the season we are gonna be from 106 to 15o in terms of ACEAllanjeffs 22:58, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

2008 had an ACE of 144 and this is where they ended at, but when AH seasons get a high overall ACE, I also pay attention to the ACE/storm as well, and with an ACE/storm of only 6, that's not very good. As I mentioned earlier, even 2006 had a higher ACE/storm than this year. Even if we do get an overall ACE of 110-125(a pretty good overall estimate), it will still be much lower than that of other rescent years we've had. The ACE this year may be above the long-term average(1900-now), but looking at what's happened since 1995(which seems to be a better indicator for ATL right now), this really isn't that far above normal Allan. In fact, we're just about where we should be for ACE if you look at seasons since 1995, but because of all of the epic failures we had back in July-August, the ACE/storm is just downright horrible. Ryan1000 23:15, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:Azores
This thing is still there.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Now invested.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wonder why they invested it prior to it being on the TWO. Nonetheless, this storm would be absolutely amazing to have develop. We could add it to the list of the odd things that have happened in 2011. Yqt1001 12:34, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Deactivated. Yqt1001 19:14, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it would count as a subtropical storm or something better. Now we just have to wait for 2012 and hope for another one to form there.10'Q.'INVEST 02:03, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cuba
Well, after research, the convective activity in the Caribbean is a tail end of a front that is expected by most models to create a suptropical storm near Florida in 3-5 days. It still has to cross Cuba, however once it completes the crossing we should have firm details about where it will form and the track it takes. HPC said that the best analog to this AOI is a 1974 subtropical storm. Worth watching. Also worth noting that many models show one of the strongest MJO pulses ever recorded coming into the Atlantic this month. With the right conditions that might make my prediction for a 190mph storm not so crazy after all (but still really unlikely :P ).Yqt1001 21:32, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

I knew this thing was going to develop in the future, and an AOI is only the precursor to this thing. October hurricanes are very pesky and often hit us close to home here. I wouldn't be surprised if it does develop, but we're barely getting started here. Ryan1000 08:31, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

If this develops it goes either into the eastern GoM and up to the panhandle or it goes east of Florida or it goes straight up into Florida. --88.102.101.245 07:59, October 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * It looks to be crossing Cuba, and is likely to stall over the Bahamas until the conditions are favourable for it to develop. Yqt1001 19:56, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
No harm in starting this early, like we did with the EPAC and WPAC, now is there? (names that I think will be retired are in bold) --HurricaneMaker99 15:29, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% - 25 deaths and $213 million are respectable fatality and damage totals, but probably not enough to earn retirement.
 * Bret: 0% - The resilience was admirable; however, considering the lack of any major effects, retirement is out of the question.
 * Cindy: 0% - I feel kinda bad booing her, since she survived into some really cold waters, but... BOO
 * Don: 0% - Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing.
 * Emily: 2% - A lot of promise gone to waste here, though there were fatalities.
 * Franklin: 0% - I smell fish...
 * Gert: 0% - Aside from the odd fresh gust in Bermuda, nothing.
 * Harvey: 5% - Minor damage and a few fatalities, but nothing in comparison to Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Widespread and extensive damage; $10 billion across the Caribbean and US? The outright pummeling of the Bahamas, the coastal flooding in NC and VA, the catastrophic inland flash flooding in Vermont and other areas... Irene has made enough enemies to be an easy candidate for retirement.
 * Jose: 0% - What Ryan said (lol).
 * Katia: 2% - Knocked up the UK a bit while extratropical, but had minimal effects on land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Lee: 35% - I'm getting Agnes-ish vibes from this one. Those floods were widespread and destructive, and in some places in PA and NY, just horrific. Lee broke flooding records from Agnes. Agnes, for Christ's sake! Granted it's a bit more likely that Lee will go the way of Fay, he could pull an Allison, too. I'll be very interested to see where the monetary damage figures end up – I'm expecting at least Fay-like totals.
 * Maria: 2% - Not even close to a re-Igor for Newfoundland, and the Lessers didn't get much damage either.
 * Nate: 5% - Veracruz has seen much worse than this.
 * Ophelia: 11% - Tacking on an extra 1% purely because she was so awesome. Reversed some progress in repairing from Igor, but wasn't nearly as bad as he was; though I'd like to hear more about the impact in Dominica.


 * I'm going to wait until later here. If 91L (Emily) of this year happens to do what her 2005 predecesor couldn't(that is, cause enough damage to be retired), then I'll throw in my percentages because as of now, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement. Thus far, I'd be surprised if we have ANY names nominated. Arlene didn't hit Mexico hard enough, and every other storm thus far did virtually nothing. Ryan1000 05:03, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine:
 * Arlene - 15% - It killed two dozen people, but Mexico has seen worse than her, and Arlene's coming back in 2017.
 * Bret - 0% - I don't think Bret's going, unless he's some tyrant name.
 * Cindy - 0% - See you in 2017!!!
 * Don - 1% - Affected land, dropped 2/3 inch of rain in Brownsville, that's it. No way Don's going.
 * Emily - 4% - Not Hanna or Gordon bad.
 * Franklin - 0% - See Cindy's section.
 * Gert - 0.01% - Only because she forced TS warnings for Bermuda.
 * Harvey - 5% - It wasn't a fishie, but if Matthew last year didn't go, then Harvey won't.
 * Irene - 80% - Irene has caused enough damage to remove herself.
 * Jose - 0% - See Gert's section.
 * Katia - 1% - The UK may request retirement, but it's not likely.
 * Lee - 10% - Floods happened, but Allison (1989) was worse and didn't go.
 * Maria - 5% - If a storm like Maria hit NF last year, would it have gone? No!
 * Nate - 3% - Even Arlene makes this storm a fail.
 * Ophelia - 5% - See Emily's section.
 * Philippe - TBA - Still active
 * Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 20% - Damage was minimal, but a quarter 100 deaths? That's a hefty amount. However, Arlene did not cause many big problems to Mexico. Mexico also has been reluctant to retire what most would think to be terrible storms (well, technically all (except the fishies) are). If Karl was not retired, not Arlene. Bret: 0% - Thanks for your ability to fight the shear! Cindy: 0% - Cold water fishy Don: 1% - Don had hopes to bring the South Texas drought to a...well...away from exceptional, but Don did nothing but drop a few barely beneficial drops of rain. Emily: 5% - Emily caused deaths and damage especially to Hispaniola, but not enough for any true retirement. Franklin: 0% - A stupid storm in the middle of the ocean. If I were to give it a nickname I would call it 'The Perfect Fail' Gert: 0% - Gert did cause some issues, but it did not do much to Bermuda except bring some gusty winds as it moved to the east. On the move to 2017! Harvey: 4% - With the exception of 3 deaths and some flooding, Harvey was not a major issue. Irene: 97% - I'm placing my retirement card on Irene because she was too much. She cannot pull of a Karl because she was a big deal to so many countries. In the end, Puerto Rico will probably request retirement, Hispaniola probably will too with 5 deaths and Haiti, which practically will retire ANY hurricane that comes over them due to the earthquake's prolonged affects, cholera outbreak, worse living conditions, etc. For the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, damage wasn't too bad, especially when you look at past storms, but there were damages, and was considered the worst hurricane since Floyd. For them retirement is a maybe. The United States will 100% retire Irene: 35 (2) deaths and ~$7 billion. Overall, the odds of retirement are almost certain. Once again let me put the numbers in perspective: 43 indirect and direct deaths, $10.1 billion in damages CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:38, August 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Arlene: 20% Cause some impact in Mexico it kills at least 25 but like they said here Mexico have seen worst things.
 * Bret: 1% He survived shear and just that, The 1% is for the effect on the Bahamas but retirement is not gonna happen.
 * Cindy: 0% What does she do???NOTHING but I admire her by her duration on cold water
 * Don: 1% That 1% is just for the damage in the carribean and just that, not even give Texas the water that it need just after landfall it dissipites Fail
 * Emily : 3% A lot of promises but not even one she do.
 * Franklin: 0% you and Cindy are just gonna be best friends, you two have a lot in common especially that both of you are fails.
 * Gert: 1% just because she affected Bermuda, but hey honey you are staying no matter what.
 * Harvey : 3% damage in my country nor belize was enough to earn retirement but at least it tried.
 * Irene:97% for me damage was enough for retirement Puerto Rico or the U.S.A may ask the name of this beauty.
 * Jose:1% Another system make of a front boundary of the 2011 but I have to give him credit for surviving and strenghtening in the high shear
 * Katia:10% good storm to track but not she is not going even with the effects on Europe because at that time she was extratropical
 * Lee:17% it did damge but not severe for retirement but I have to say he is one of the best candidates until now with Irene and Arlene
 * Maria:5% it was not that bad but it was a hurricane nontheless
 * Nate:5% dissipite after landfall PATHETIC just like don
 * Ophelia: 25 to 35% damage in Dominica a lot but not severe and it has a chance nevertheless
 * Philippe?


 * Allanjeffs 03:00, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * :: okz well here r my forcasts
 * arlene 18% deaths and damage but not alot
 * bret 1% cause of the bahamas but no real retirement
 * cindy 0% ur on the train to 2017
 * don 2% cause of the caribian but not really
 * emily 6% well alot of brushing land
 * franklin 0%ur also on the train to 2017 =D
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda

Well, I'll give my (official) percentages as of now:


 * Arlene - 15% - 25 deaths and 213 million is an okay number, but not enough to retire a name, especially for Mexico.


 * Bret - 0% - There's fail...


 * Cindy - 0% - ...And there's epic fail!


 * Don - 0% - "Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing." --HM99.


 * Emily - 5% - Not bad enough.


 * Franklin - 0% - Which one was Franklin again?


 * Gert - 0% - It tried and failed.

That's all I can say for now. Ryan1000 20:39, October 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Harvey - 5% - It tried and failed.
 * Irene - 85% - It tried and succeded. Although Irene wasn't as bad as she could've been and we got very lucky from her, with 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths, chances are in favor of retirement.
 * Jose - 0% - No way Jose.
 * Katia - 0% - Not exactly a fail since it was a C4, but as with every other fishspinner, it has no chance of retirement.
 * Lee - 20% - I'll tack a 1 in 5 chance on Lee because inland flooding was quite severe, and it killed many people, but it might have been overshadowed by Irene in the areas it did affect in the northeast, or the overall flooding that happened in the area anyways.
 * Maria - 5% - She might have winded the upper lessers and Newfoundland a bit but both areas have seen much worse, and Maria's coming back in 2017.
 * Nate - 5% - Wasn't as bad as Arlene.
 * Ophelia - 5% - Like Maria, Newfoundland has seen much worse than Ophelia, as has Bermuda.
 * Philippe - 0% - Just because it lived through harsh conditions or became epic doesn't mean he'll be retired, especially since all he did was spun fish.

Here's mine:


 * Arlene - 5% - Karl didn't get retired, why should this one?


 * Bret - 0% - Other than TS warnings, it did nothing.


 * Cindy - 0% - It wasn't even close to Bermuda.


 * Don - 0% - Could have gotten a higher number, but this one really failed.


 * Emily - 5% It did brush the Leeward Islands.


 * Franklin - 0% - This one's not going.


 * Gert - 0% - Only TD winds were felt at Bermuda.


 * Harvey - 5% - Well, it tried.


 * Irene - 95% - It did enough damage in the Carribean, adding the East Coast makes it go off the list.


 * Jose - 5% - It formed so close to Bermuda and it still did nothing.


 * Katia - 20% - Unless it did moderate or serious damage in Europe.


 * Lee - 20% - It has damage, but not too much.
 * Maria - 10% - Unless your looking forward to it as a Igor-like storm.
 * Nate - 5% - See Arlene's section.
 * Ophelia - 20% - Even it does hit land, it's not going to be retired.
 * Philippe - 0% - The worse it could get is a Maria - like storm.

Here's a summary.. 10Q.INVEST 02:27, September 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone - Irene
 * Might be gone - Lee, Katia, Maria, Arlene
 * Staying - the rest

Here are mine:


 * Arlene - 15% - Possible, but unlikely.


 * Bret - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Cindy - 0% - Fishspinner


 * Don - <1% - Hardly did anything.


 * Emily - 5% - Some effect, but not severe.


 * Franklin - 0% - Near fishspinner.


 * Gert - 0% - Bermuda just got a little breeze.


 * Harvey - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Irene - 90% - U.S. damage is estimated to be about $7 billion, and add the Caribbean damage and it totals to about $10 billion. The U.S. won't pass on this one I am pretty sure.


 * Jose - 3% - Some effect at Bermuda, but nothing very severe.

70.171.254.210 01:44, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine: All of that saying so far, Irene will be the first storm to get the boot. Now, Isaac is the last remaining original I storm. Given that they are cursed, I expect that to get the boot in a few years too. Darren 23 Edits 01:20, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% – Didn't do a whole much of anything... I didn't see any reports of Mexico calling this that bad.
 * Bret: 0% – Obvious
 * Cindy: 0% – Obvious
 * Don: 1% – Donepicfail will never ever be retired, ever.
 * Emily: 4% – Emilyfail didn't do anything much to Hispaniola.
 * Franklin: 0% – Few hours of fame
 * Gert: 0% – Obvious
 * Harvey: 15% – Central America/Mexico wasn't crying that this was destructive, so this is obvious.
 * Irene: 91% – Moderate to severe damage over a wide area, with the US having massive floods, this will get the boot. This is not gonna be an Karl... Irene is much, much more widespread and people actually know the extend of the damage.
 * Jose: 0% – 24 hours of fame

The Great Seer has spoken: It's been a crazy season so far. I have a feeling we're just getting started. -- SkyFury 03:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 30% - 22 deaths and $223 million in damage is nothing to sneeze at, I don't care what Mexico says. I had no idea it was that bad. If that was in the US, we'd have it up around 50% at least. Those are definately retirement-worthy numbers. Do I think it will be retired? No. But the numbers certainly qualify.
 * Bret: 2% - Sure made for a lousy weekend on Abaco Island, but otherwise bupkiss. Most of Bret's effects were beneficial.
 * Cindy: 0% - Look, a shooting star! Quick everybody make a wish!
 * Don: 1% - Per my usual custom, I never give a storm that affected land a 0% chance. I was really hoping to be able to make a Godfather reference with this one, but that's kinda hard to do with a storm that fell flat on its face. Though I guess it's fair to say that TS Don sleeps with the fishes ;)
 * Emily: 10% - It did kill five people. I'm still confused about Emily. It will go down as one of the most troublesome storms in history from a forecasting persepective. SMH...
 * Franklin: 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Gert: 0% - I get the feeling there were a few surfers on Bermuda who were sorely disappointed.
 * Harvey: 8% - This one could've been a lot worse. I think a lot of people were worried about another Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Wow, what a storm. As we feared, this has turned into another Floyd/Isabel with devastating inland flooding. But as bad as it was, it could've been a whole lot worse. It would've been catastrophic had it hit North Carolina as a Cat 3 and NYC as a Cat 2, as originally predicted. This was really setting up to be a worst case scenario with the size of the storm, track right over NYC, and astronomical tides. Thank God it didn't happen. I don't think I'll ever forget seeing Times Square, Grand Central Station, and Atlantic City's casinos completely and utterly vacant. It really was post apocalyptic. I was waiting for Will Smith and the zombies to jump out at any minute. Incredible. I hope you guys took it all in, because we may never see another storm like that in our lifetimes. I thought every single elected official at the state and local level did an exemplary job preparing for this storm. I don't think they could've handled it better. It had been almost three years since a big storm hit the US and there was plenty of room for complacency, but all the mayors and governors handled this with the utmost seriousness and professionalism. It took a lot of balls for Mayor Bloomberg and Governor Christie to order those evacuations. And apart from North Carolina, these were places that never have to deal with stuff like this. For a bunch of them, this was their first serious threat from a hurricane in decades. I was blown away by how well they handled it. Their actions saved lives. Hats off.
 * Jose: 0% - *facepalm*
 * Katia: 4% - Hey, it was fun to watch. A major hurricane for a change. And the British Isles took a beating from this. Four people did die.
 * Lee: 25% - Flooded the rest of the eastern US. Death toll is up to 17 now. As feared, this got pretty ugly. It brought a crapload of rain to places that couldn't take another drop. It exascerbated flooding in the wake of Irene. It's a cruel irony that Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were drowning in 15 inches of rain while neighboring Texas is in a historic drought with huge wildfires destroying homes. All Lee did for them was fan the flames.
 * Maria: 5% - Well this ended up getting pretty interesting, especially for Newfoundland, who've had a rather lively past couple of seasons. But this was no Igor. It was certainly blustery, probably exhilarating down on the south coast, but they came out of it unscathed.
 * Nate: 10% - Another disappointment. They gave the kids in Veracruz the day off from school for this. That said, at least five people have died in flooding and ten oil rig workers are missing. Yikes. Hence the 10%, which could be conservative if these early reports turn out to be true.
 * Ophelia: 5% - Wow that was fun! What an amazing storm! Who'd have thought as we watched Ophelia sputter and die that it would come roaring back to become the strongest storm of the season. Just a remarkable turnaround. And yet another scare for Newfoundland, this has been a crazy season for them. All that said, damage was fortunately minimal.
 * Philippe: 1% - Yet another tenacious storm. This has really become a major subplot of this season: tough, tenacious storms. Maria, Ophelia and Philippe all survived brutal shear conditions to become significant hurricanes. That's impressive. That 1%, btw, is simply out of respect for what the storm was able to accomplish.
 * To be continued...

Anything but Irene 0 percent, Irene at 60 percent (while I've substracted some 25 percent due to the fact that the basin is running out names commencing with an I) --88.102.101.245 11:49, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Here's what I have:


 * Arlene: 20%. The deaths and damages were something notable, but just not enough to cut through Mexico's reputation.


 * Bret: 1%. Little rain, not much else.


 * Cindy: 0%. Hello, speedy!


 * Don: 1%. To say the least, this was probably the first time a tropical storm not making landfall was a disappointment to the people there. Texas needed the rain.


 * Emily: 15%. It was quite aggravating to track and did do some damage. The thing that makes me wonder is that the worst hit may have been Martinique...the same Martinique that got Klaus off the list. However, Emily, fortunately, was no Klaus.


 * Franklin: 0%. While it did rain on Bermuda to a tiny degree, who would remember this one?


 * Gert: 0%. Yet another near-hit with no effects.


 * Harvey: 1%. Yet another minor effects storm.


 * Irene: 85%. It was leading up to this. Major damage, high death toll, and although it wasn't as bad as predicted, it was still bad enough. It's time for a 12-year-late retirement.


 * Jose: -5%. The dead-ringer of Tropical Storm Kay from the 2004 Pacific hurricane season and Tropical Storm Ernesto of the 2000 Atlantic season. It was such a bomb of a storm that I can't even give it a 0.

That's all for now! Jake52 22:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 10%. It affected Mexico, but that's it.

Bret: 1%. Didn't do anything

Cindy: 0%. Hey Fishie!

Don: 1%. It hit near Baffin Bay dieing out quickly, but no retirement

Emily: 10%. No major damage along the path

Franklin: 0%. See Cindy

Gert: 1%. Near hit on Bermuda, but missed.

Harvey: 10%. It made landfall twice, but no severe damage

Irene: 80%. A damaging storm, though not as worse than was expected, but a good chance

Jose: 5%. Unexpected formation, a near hit on Bermuda, but not huge damage

Katia: 0%. Reached Cat. 4 status, but no

Lee: 30%. Lee might be a player, damage was mostly from floods.

Maria: 10%. Not a really bad hit, and not another Igor happening.

Nate: 1%. Fizzled quickly, and did not do anything bad in Mexico.

Ophelia: N/A. Still Active

Philippe: N/A. Still Active

OWEN2011 02:17, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

In general, here is a summary of what's going and what's not:

Gone: Irene 

Possibly so: Arlene, Emily, Lee 

Possibly not: Harvey, Maria, Nate, Ophelia 

Staying: Bret, Cindy, Don, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Philippe

Hurricane Andrew (444)' 02:52, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

Although we have had a rather active season thus far this year, the ACE sucks, TBH, and we have had only one bad storm thus far in 2011, so we're better than where we were in previous years. At this time in 2004, we had Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne was in the making, and at this time in 2005 we had Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and Rita was going to be forming as well. We had Gustav and Ike done with at this time in 2008 and Andrew was long past done at this time in 1992. I do not use past seasons as a prescedent of what's to come; for example, although we have a chance of seeing a Wilma, Mitch, Paloma, or Lenny-like storm in October and November, I don't directly count on it, since no two seasons are exactly alike. We got much luckier this year than we probrably ever could've been in the history of ever. Irene could have easily been a 100 billion-dollar storm if it hit NC as a cat 3 and NYC as a cat 2 like it was originally predicted. The timing of Irene's landfall couldn't have been any worse. The tides were at their peaks when it made landfall. New England suffered record August rainfall so the ground couldn't hold any more water, maximizing flood potential. The only thing that saved us was a patch of dry air that was over South Carolina and Georgia at the time Irene was doing her ERC. That dry air weakened her to a C1 when it made landfall in North Carolina, saving the coast from what could've been the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Although Irene was nowhere close to being a Katrina, 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths(mostly in the U.S) is still nothing to be taken lightly. Irene has a very likely chance of being retired, not 100% though, and it ended a very long drought on the east coast, the longest ever known between any two hurricanes there. Ryan1000 10:51, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene - 15% - Did lots of damage in Veracruz but not enough to be retired.

Bert - 2% - Never approached land.

Cindy - 0% - Hardly ever approached land.

Don - 1% - Made landfall in Texas and then BOOM, it was gone.

Emily - 5% - Some damage in the Caribbean but not enough.

Franklin - 0% - Who?

Gert - 2% - Brushed Bermuda.

Harvey - 5% - It did make landfall in Mexico, but not as a very strong storm.

IRENE - 90% - Billions of damage along the East Coast, loads of deaths. Certainly one to watch next spring.

Jose - 1% - Waste of time.

Katia - 10% - Hardly any damage.

Lee - 25% - Loads of flooding along the South coast and the eastern coast and 20 deaths.

Maria - 5% - Another version of Igor? No. Maria will never get retired.

Nate - 0% - Just dissipated as soon as it made landfall. I'll see you in 2017, Nate.

Ophelia - 10% - Brushed Bermuda, followed same track as Maria. It will never get retired.

Philippe - 5% - Affected Cape Verde ever so slightly. Has not affected land yet.

Kiewii 09:19, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

In total, it looks like around one storm will be retired (~1.25). There is around a 95% chance that at least one storm will be retired. Dree12 20:14, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene 5%: Mexico has seen much worse damage than this, and deaths aren't the only indicator for retirement. It may have come as a surprise in late June, but I would be seriously surprised if Arlene left.
 * Bret ~0%: No damage
 * Cindy ~0%: No severe damage
 * Don ≤1%: Barely any damage, and was more benificial than harmful
 * Emily 5%: It's not the US or Mexico that got hit worst, but Emily wasn't a Klaus.
 * Franklin ~0%: No damage to speak of
 * Gert ≤1%: Bermuda has seen much, much, much worse.
 * Harvey ~0%: This is Mexico we're talking about.
 * Irene  90%: The US hasn't retired a hurricane since Ike, and although Irene wasn't as bad as Ike, 50 deaths and 7 billion of damage in the US alone isn't something to laugh at. If the US passes, the Caribbeen won't; there were much too many countries affected. More likely than not, Irene's going away for 30 years.
 * Jose ~0%: No severe damage
 * Katia 5%: Even England has seen much worse, and they aren't going to retire an extratropical storm
 * Lee 5%: People will disagree with this, but the only tropical storm retired by the US was Allison, and Lee was no Allison.
 * Maria 5%: It was Canada which was hit, but Newfoundland has seen much worse.
 * Nate ≤1%: Caused more panic than damage.
 * Ophelia 10%: Not worse than Maria in Newfoundland, but since Dominica might seek retirement as well, the percentage is increased a little.
 * Philippe is still active.

Very Mid-season forecasts
Why call it very mid-season forecasts? Because most mid-seasoners do it in early August. Well, welcome to the true mid season, the beginning of September (almost!). As we near the second half and the most active half, we already have a taste of what the first half did. Here is my prediction: 17 total systems, 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. My ACE calculations lead me to believe a near normal statistic, around the 70-110 range. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:49, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

My prediction was 18 tropical cyclones, 17 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and 1 Category 5.

Now, doing it like CSU does it, we have 6 tropical cyclones, 6 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes, 0 Category 5's, and a ACE of 10. My post - August 13 activity is 12 tropical cyclones, 11 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 majors, 1 Category 5, and a ACE of 140.

For more information, go to my blog:

Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:09, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * With the activity so far, we might challenge 2010's total of 19 named storms. If we keep spitting out storms at this rate into November, and double the rate in September, there should be no reason we don't reach 20 storms. I still stick with 5 majors, only because the basin is warm and little shear..as the SAL slowly lifts, the CV season will probably be huge...so far the pattern is looking like most CV storms will go into the US too. Yqt1001 16:21, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Although we may have a higher chance of destruction, we can never accurately forecast damages or retirements; last year almost permanently taught me that fact. I don't truly know if we will have our streak end this year, but I hope it does, every year without a landfall just makes it worse. However, I must agree that at the rate we are going, we indeed have a descent shot at catching up to 2005, possibly 2010 and definitely 2004 and 2008(in numbers). Ryan1000 01:29, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * See much more detailed and more precise information, see my forecast blog. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:08, August 15, 2011 (UTC)

Irene seems likely to hit the USA as a hurricane...or will it be down to TS strength (and dodge the Outer Banks) before a New England landfall?(Yesterday NHC maps had it hit NYC,but the track keeps moving east).--12.144.5.2 19:26, August 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * A re-Bob or re-Carol seems more likely than anything as of now, but the 20-year drought for New England is probrably going to end this Saturday. Irene may end the drought there, but elsewhere in the U.S, we're rather silent; although the 5.8 earthquake shook up a large chunk of the eastern seaboard, overall damage was insevere. Irene won't be that way. Keep your eyes out for her over the next few days. Ryan1000 22:55, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * BTW, for further information, I made my official forecasts for worldwide activity of 2011 in my blog. You can view them here. Ryan1000 18:10, September 3, 2011 (UTC)


 * After thinking about my "mid season forecasts", I have come up with them finally. ATL: 24-26 depressions, 22-24 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes, 0-2 category 5 hurricanes The reason for this is the fact that many models are predicting that we will get to atleast Rina before the end of September and most of those storms forming in areas very conducive for development. The dry air will probably remain heavy for the time being but I can see it dropping down low enough for a decent amount of hurricanes to develop this year. EPac (including CPac): 10-12 depressions, 9-11 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes and 0-1 category 5 hurricanes The reason for this is that quite a bit of signs point to a shut down of the EPac starting around now. I won't say that Greg will be the last named storm, but the models don't show much more activity in the EPac for a while. WPac: 37-43 depressions, 20-25 named storms, 10-15 typhoons, 5-7 super typhoons I'm not as good at predicting the WPac as I am for the ATL, so I had to leave the margins large and I don't have much to prove my thoughts. NWIO: 6-8 depressions, 2-4 deep depressions, 1-3 named cyclones, 0-1 severe/super cyclones The first peak of the season has already passed. This could pull a 2010 AHS and become a record season during the second peak though. :P I would do SHem, but I don't think too much will come from it, maybe 1 MH strength cyclone and a few named storms. Yqt1001 00:48, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

US Hurricane Drought
Yes, it's Eric! SkyFury is back for another season by popular demand. I am currently enjoying my retirement from Wikipedia but am happy to rejoin the forums for the hurricane season. I normally get back to the Wiki for the new season by July, but this summer has been really busy for me and, despite the activity, am only just now returning. I have received messages of distress about the state of affairs in the forums, but from what I can tell, this Wiki has done nothing but get better in my absence. Ryan1000, I know I have some missed messages from you (one from forever ago) and I intend to address those tomorrow, when it's not 2:30 in the morning lol. Tonight I come, as I usually do, bearing historical food for thought. A hurricane has not made landfall in the US since Ike in 2008. If a hurricane doesn't hit the US before September 2, it will be the longest drought since 1980-1983, and that's only if Iwa's brush of Hawaii in 1982 is discounted. If one doesn't hit before September 21, it will be the longest drought since the Civil War. -- SkyFury 06:33, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well then, welcome back here! (I'm a new user BTW, so I don't think you know me). I also want to add the fact that we have gone 5 years, 9 months, 3 weeks, and 2 days (i.e. six years!!!) since a major hit the U.S (unless you count Ike). If this continues until October 24, that's a record major hurricane drought. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:20, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Welcome back! (I'm relatively new too, but you probably have a hint of a clue about me since I was around for a bit of 2010) The forums have really calmed down now and are stable ever since darren retired. He comes back everynow and then and downcasts YE and the EPac, but his surprise attacks aren't often. Ryan is doing a good job operating the forums now. :) What I'm curious about is your thoughts on this season. So far we have had a bunch of weak storms..one after each other at record pace. When do you think the season will get it's first major? When will the season start kicking out hurricanes? If ever? Yqt1001 13:30, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L (future Harvey) could easily end that drought; from what I'm reading of the HWRF model available on the WunderMap, it's forecasting Harvey to have a pressure of 933–935 mbar as it scrapes Cuba and heads just north of the Yucatan. What happens after that is anyone's guess, but judging from the re-curvature shown in that model, Texas could easily see a direct hit from Harvey. They need the rain, but no major hurricanes, please! --HurricaneMaker99 14:14, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * And better late than never; welcome back, Eric :) --HurricaneMaker99 20:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, welcome back SkyFury! Since I just came on the forums, let me introduce myself. I am CobraStrike from Austin, Texas and I am 11 years old. Anyways, coincidentally, as this section on the US Hurricane Drought continues, Rick Knabb of the Weather Channel published an article on what he felt were the top 5 most overdue cities. They are:
 * 5. Tampa - Not one hurricane since the costliest hurricane (inflation adjusted) of 1921 has directly affected Tampa. They were lucky in 2004 to not get hit by a small Charley, which went a little further south.
 * 4. Savannah - Not a major hurricane has affected Savannah, Georgia since 1893. Even the National Hurricane Center calls Georgia hurricanes sleeping giants.
 * 3. New York City - The large population makes it vulnurable, and the number of "close calls" makes people think the Big Apple is a hurricane shield.
 * 2. San Diego - Not since 1858.
 * 1. Honolulu - Has never been affected by a hurricane, yet has had close calls.
 * CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:21, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, what's baffling to me a bit more is our East coast streak in the U.S. We have not seen a major hurricane in the U.S. since October 24, 2005, discounting Ike of 2008. We usually see an east coast hurricane in the U.S. once every two years, but we have gone for 6 years without an east coast hurricane in 2011, since Katrina in 2005. That is the longest streak I can find in the history of ever. A close runner-up was an almost from Ginger of 1971 to David of 1979, but Hurricane Belle hit near NYC as a minor hurricane in August 1976. The closest runner-up for no Major hurricanes streak in the U.S. was, well, the civil war, almost since record-keeping began. I didn't think Hurricane Wiki would get so out of control ever since you left Eric, but the good news is you're back now. And CobraStrike, the biggest overdue city in the United States is actually Miami, Florida. Despite having a history of over, say thousands of major hurricanes in the past 150 years, the last time Miami was devastated by a monster hurricane was in 1926(Andrew of 1992 missed them a teeny bit to the south). If Miami was hit by a monster category 5 hurricane today, it would cause over 150 billion in damage because Miami has buit up so much since Andrew, and after Miami comes NYC, then Houston(New Orleans already got devastated), then Tampa/Savannah, and to a lesser extent places like Virginia Beach, Virginia and Atlantic City, New Jersy, perhaps Jacksonville or Charelston as well. The only epically devastating cyclone thus far this year was Yasi, which kicked the living sh!t out of Queensland last February, and became one of the worst storms in Australia's history, let alone the costliest discounting inflation. Innisfail, Mission Beach, and Tully were wiped off of the face of the earth from Yasi's massive storm surge, estimated by some to be higher than even Katrina's. It's a good thing that that 155 mph, 300 mile wide monster didn't hit a bigger city like Townsville or Brisbane, and fortunately it caused only one (indirect) death. Ryan1000 16:57, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Yqt, I agree, the lack of power displayed by the storms thus far in 2011 is surprising. This is the latest we have gone without a hurricane since 2006, and most of the seasons that wait this late have been down years. That said, we've had seven names scratched off the list, which is a damn lot, but not one of them has been a hurricane. 2002 waited until the 'G' storm (Gustav) on September 11 before it had its first hurricane. No season in the naming era (since 1950) has gone this far down the list still hurricane-less. I remember the 2003 EPAC season went all the way down to Ignacio before they had a hurricane. They did not have a major hurricane that year for the first time in forever. It's really difficult to say when the season will start showing some force. Emily was a big freaking mystery. The models were clueless. It should've turned north and threatened the US as at least a borderline hurricane but instead it stalled off Hispaniola and died. That was bizarre. Yeah Ryan, beginning in 2004, hurricanes started trending noticably to the south through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. That in part explains the lack of any in the Carolinas and northward, but that doesn't explain the lack of any Florida impacts. Only four hurricanes (officially) have made landfall in the US since 2005, all of them along the western Gulf Coast, three in Texas and one in Louisiana. I will point out that Ernesto in 2006 and Hanna in 2008, which hit virtually the same spot in southern North Carolina, were so close to hurricane strength at landfall that the difference is negligible. However, you are right, the US eastern seaboard is in a major drought. The Atlantic coast has not had a major tropical event since Jeanne in 2004 (although Katrina, despite its lower intensity, did knock Florida around pretty good). North of Florida, there has not been a significant hurricane event since Isabel in 2003. Even more incredibly, there has not been a major event in New England in 20 years (Bob, 1991). It's like the Florida Panhandle's big drought before Eloise in 1975. And don't get me started on New York City. In my opinion, that's another Katrina waiting to happen. If they get so much as a Cat. 2 coming as far west as Brooklyn, they're in deep shit. -- SkyFury 23:14, August 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * But it's almost the opposite in the East Pacific somehow. Eric, we have had 6 hurricanes thus far in this year's EPac season, counting Greg's rescent upgrade, and if we get Fernanda to become a hurricane, it will mark the first time in the history of EVER that the first 7 storms there became hurricanes. The ACE in this year's EPac season has already jumped ahead of where last year ended at. The ACE per storm thus far is about 6.8(and counting) in EPac. 1992 had a total ACE per storm of about 11 in the EPac; 1990's ACE/storm was a little higher. Heck, at this rate, if Fernanda becomes a 'cane, all of this year's EPac storms will be hurricanes. In the case of the activity stuff Eric, Danielle wasn't even named at this time last year and keep in mind 2010 AHS still got to 19 storms, 12 canes, and 5 majors(yet somehow no U.S. hurricanes), so don't count out on this season yet, since the heart of 2011 is still yet to come. Now with the overdue places. Yes, I do agree with you a major hurricane, let alone a 100 mph or stronger storm, hitting NYC would be a horrible disaster for the U.S, but as I mentioned, a category 5 hurricane hitting Miami would be the worst-case scenario for destruction in the U.S. They have had a longer drought than any other major city in the U.S. except for NYC. The last, and to date, most severe major hurricane to directly hit Miami was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. True Miami has had a lot of near-close calls since then but no direct hits by any hurricanes of the intensity of the 1926 storm. Andrew, as I mentioned above, missed them by only 10 or 20 miles to the south, but it missed them far enough not to directly hit them. I can't imagine what a hurricane like the 1926 hurricane would do to Miami today. It would be a disaster without parallell in U.S. history. NYC would be severely damaged by a 115-125 mph major hurricane today, but Miami would be butt f**ked by a 150-160 mph category 4-5 monster. Although there are many overdue places in the U.S, Miami takes the cake. I'm not doomcasting here, but i'm pointing out some very important facts about how lucky we really have gotten since the monster(s) of '04, '05, and '08. This year could just be the last straw... Ryan1000 05:01, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm not saying it wouldn't be really bad, but Miami is a well-prepared city and an Category 5 taking direct aim at a major city is a one in a million shot. Only three have made landfall anywhere in the United States in the past 160 years. Granted, if a major city was going to take a Cat 5 on the chin, it would probably be Miami, but the odds are still astronomical. That said, I am by no means dismissing the threat. A Cat 4 similar to the 1926 storm would be devastating. However, I would not expect a high death toll. The government and emergency personnel in south Florida have an organized and well-rehearsed evacuation plan. I would not expect another Rita. The damage would be extremely severe. Miami Beach would probably be all but wiped out and Coral Gables would be laid to waste. But I wouldn't expect a death toll much higher than Andrew. New York City on the other hand is a nightmare. The entire metro area is extremely low lying and sits right at the vertex of a concave coast. A 5-8 ft surge in Florida would be a 10-12 ft surge in NYC. An 8 ft surge hit the coast of Brooklyn during the 1938 hurricane despite the fact that the storm made landfall over 40 miles away. Like 15-20 million people live in Manhattan and Brooklyn alone. Even if you only had to evacuate a third of them, it would still be a logistical nightmare. Where would you put them all? Where do you send them? There are no direct routes away from ground zero. Brooklyn and Queens are on an island. Emergency managers up there have no experience with hurricanes. They'd have to figure it out as they went. The skyscrapers of Manhattan would act to funnel the storm surge, making it even worse. Anyone still on the streets when the storm hits is dead. A Category 3 or greater storm coming through Jamaica Bay and up through the city could kill over 1,000 people and do over $100 billion in damage. The economic cost would be at least twice that. Wall Street would be shut down for weeks, possibly months. The floors of the stock exchange would be flooded and gutted. Subways would be flooded and shorted out. It would take weeks just to pump the water out, let alone get them running again. Streets would be flooded or clogged with debris. Who knows how long it would take for the water to recede. The biggest commercial port in the US would be shut down. The economic capital of the world would be crippled. Even a Category 3, let alone a Category 4, could make 9/11 look like a traffic accident. -- SkyFury 19:08, August 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * The only thing I was saying is that a category 5 hurricane hardly leaves anything behind in it's wake. A category 3 hurricane causes severe damage. A category 5 causes catastrophic damage. Mark my words, and mark them good, there is no city on the entire gulf and east coast that is ready for a category 5 hurricane, and Miami definitely isn't. You can prepare for a category 5, but can never be ready for a category 5. What you're saying is NYC is so much more vulnerable to hurricanes that a cat 3 hitting them would be worse than a category 5 hitting Miami, ect, and I can completly understand that. I'm smart enough to know better, I know NYC is a tucked back coastal town, I know there are 15 million people in the 300-square mile city and I know evacuating all of those people would be next to impossible in a day or less, especially if a hurricane is approaching them at 60 miles an hour, like the 1938 hurricane did. New England hurricanes start to rocket in forward speed once they pass the Carolinas, and they can arrive to a landfall in hours, which can make evacuation decisions critical if they are made too early in places that aren't hit. What i'm saying is category 3 hurricanes destroy many structures in their path, but category 5 hurricanes destroy everything in their path, and only a handfull of cat 5's haven't been retired in the NAtl. Cleo was one, which was a rare fish cat. 5, Edith was another, which struck an unpopulated part of Honduras known as cabo gracias a dios(cape thank god), before hitting the U.S. as a cat 2, and lastly, Emily of '05, which, despite causing widespread destruction across the Caribbean and Mexico, didn't become retired. I personally don't think Ethel of 1960 really was a cat 5, but if it really was, it only tapped the gulf as a minor TS. What I was saying is a category 5 hurricane destroying 90-100% of all the buildings in Miami might do more damage than a category 3 destroying 60-80% of NYC's buildings simply because they leave behind hardly nothing, not to mention a cat 5 in Miami could also devastate a gulf coast city like Houston, Tampa, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, or Mobile(no offense Eric). The big difference between Miami and NYC is how the people think about hurricanes. People in NYC say "you know, we don't get hurricanes here", and people in Miami say "Ah, we get hurricanes all the time; this one won't be any different from the others". Neither of them think right; the people there need to get ready every hurricane season. Every season is a gamble, with millions of lives at risk. Anyways, I don't want to do any doomcasting or argue over which hurricane would be worse since it's obvious neither scenario is good. Back to the seasonal activity, Eric, we have had 8 storms but no hurricanes thus far. I asked you earlier on your talk page what you thought 2011 would be like for the NAtl, and even though the NAtl hasn't produced anything catastrophic as of yet, worldwide we have had one(Yasi), as I mentioned earlier, it was Australia's costliest cyclone in history excluding inflation and second costliest counting inflation behind Tracy. Since we have had no hurricanes out of our first 8 storms thus far in 2011 AHS, does this season remind you of 2007, or do you not think we will have so many hurricanes ths year altogether? If the 16-storm forecast average remains true for the rest of 2011, we have to have 8 consecutive hurricanes starting with Irene to get the forecast numbers. I think we will only have 4-6 hurricanes, assuming the total numbers remain 16-17 storms. But it all depends. Ryan1000 01:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * While a lot of storms so far in 2011 have fizzled, the season as a whole has been very active. We've already had nine storms and there's still a week of August left. The GFS brings two new storms off the west coast of Africa in the coming days, one of which is already a medium risk area. We could very easily be on the 'L' storm by the beginning of September. This makes me nervous about what September holds. Conditions overall in the Atlantic have greatly improved and we're already seeing the danger of that with Irene, which could turn out to be a very serious event. The Bermuda High has been much weaker the past couple of years than it was from 2004-2009. However if significant ridging could build ahead of one of these African waves, which seem to be coming in bunches, we could very easily see a major Caribbean hurricane. So while we may not have as many hurricanes as originally forecast, the forecast for total activity is still looking good. And remember, it only takes one bad storm to make it a bad season (see Andrew). -- SkyFury 05:29, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * In the case of Irene, it has a good chance to make landfall in the U.S. as at least a 100 mph C2, but that depends on if it continues to rapidly intensify into a category 4 or 5(more probable for a 4), and then ends the streak for east coast hurricanes. There is no gurantee the eastern seaboard will reccieve a category 3 landfall, especially if it misses the outer banks, but it is more than likely it will be at least a category 2 when it does make landfall. I would be surprised if Irene doesn't make it to a 135-140 mph C4 today. However, yes Eric, given the fact we haven't had our first hurricane until Irene came along, we might not have as many hurricanes as we were expected to see; i'd expect about 6-7 in the entire season. However, as you said, it can just take one(perhaps Irene) to make 2011 a notable season. Although the Bermuda high has been weaker than normal, it certainly won't be enough right now, especially for Irene, it has a pretty good chance to not miss the entire east coast. Although Wilma is considered to remain the most rescent U.S. major, I don't want to exclude Ike of 2008 since it was the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history and 5th deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. since 1950. Only Diane, Audrey, Agnes, and Katrina were deadlier since then, so in my book, Irene would be the first in 3 years. Ryan1000 12:38, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * What's more concerning is the Texas-Southeast US drought. Since puny Don couldn't bust the dry air, it will likely take a major hurricane landfall to relieve the drought, and that could be devastating considering 32C+ Gulf SSTs. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:55, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The folks down there can use a break after Humberto, Dolly, Gustav, and Ike of 2007-08. Florida might need a wake-up call though because ever since '04 and '05, they have seen virtually nothing. Everywhere else they can stay the hell away from! Ryan1000 21:55, August 26, 2011 (UTC)

The drought is over
Irene has made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC as a strong (85/90 mph) Category 1. --HurricaneMaker99 11:59, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

So, we finally have a hurricane after 3 years, and a east coast one in 6 years. This hurricane drought was the longest one since 1999-2002, and the east coast 'cane drought was a record drought that has finally ended. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:32, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not looking good for the folks in New England... Due to Irene's rapid forward speed, it's forecast to directly pass over NYC from the south, so damage from her could still be very severe. Ryan1000 15:22, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The pattern this year favours US landfalls, so i can only wonder how drought busting htis year will be. Only time will tell I guss. Yqt1001 22:01, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * This hurricane drought took a spot in 2nd for the longest drought, only behind the CIVIL WAR. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:16, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I just did calculations, and it turns out the time between Ike's landfall and Irene's landfall is 1077 days! 1077!!! That number is incredible. And CS, the US hurricane drought that happened between Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Hurricane Alicia in 1983 was longer than this drought, but shorter than the Civil War drought (The 1980-1983 absence totaled 1103 days). Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:36, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * That depends if you do or don't count Iwa of 1982, which struck Hawaii in November. And the longest east coast streak was technically 1861-1869, if you want to go that far back. The longest hurricane streak? There are a number of close calls. Irene 99 to Lili 2002, Andrew 1992 to Erin 1995, Ike to Irene, and since the Civil war, the record in question is from November 2, 1861 to September 13, 1865. That record still stands as of today. Ryan1000 22:42, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * If I were to pick at the Civil War drought, I would think that there was a hurricane landfalling on the US in that time frame, because the Americans were to busy at the Civil War to make certain that a hurricane did/did not make landfall. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:57, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * We couldn't have made that drought so, it was either a quiet perod in NAtl or just a really good run of luck. Ryan1000 23:01, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The hurricane drought is over, but the major hurricane drought is not. Suprise11 16:18, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * The major hurricane drought is not even three years yet becasue as far as I'm concerned, Ike was a major hurricane. I'll buy that Gustav wasn't, if close, but Ike was. -- SkyFury 23:02, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't really tell the difference between a normal U.S. MH and a ginormous C2 which was one of the worst storms ever known. We went 5 years without one from Bret 1999 to Charley 2004(Unless you count Isabel), and since Wilma of 2005, we certainly had Ike and Gustav, and Irene most rescently, but although none of them were major hurricanes when they hit the U.S, they certainly had the impacts of them. We still have a chance to see an "official" U.S. MH in this year since 2011 is far from over, but Irene was the only wake-up call we really needed. Ryan1000 05:46, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * The major hurricane drought is not even three years yet becasue as far as I'm concerned, Ike was a major hurricane. I'll buy that Gustav wasn't, if close, but Ike was. -- SkyFury 23:02, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't really tell the difference between a normal U.S. MH and a ginormous C2 which was one of the worst storms ever known. We went 5 years without one from Bret 1999 to Charley 2004(Unless you count Isabel), and since Wilma of 2005, we certainly had Ike and Gustav, and Irene most rescently, but although none of them were major hurricanes when they hit the U.S, they certainly had the impacts of them. We still have a chance to see an "official" U.S. MH in this year since 2011 is far from over, but Irene was the only wake-up call we really needed. Ryan1000 05:46, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Replacement names
Again, no harm in starting this early like in the WPAC. Do you guys have replacement names in mind for Irene (and/or Arlene/Emily)?

These are mine:

Female "I" names: Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:23, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Isa
 * Izzy
 * Ivy
 * Ila
 * Ilsa
 * Iman
 * Iphigenia
 * Idelia


 * What about Inga, Irma, or Ilsa? --HurricaneMaker99 03:38, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is also Irah (which was used years ago), Ilona, and Isla (pronouncd EYE-lah). Some strange "I" names are upon us... Check out Babynames.com, and look at the "I" names! Once we get past the aforementioned names, we are in for even weirder ones, as it looks like the "I" storm will always be at the peak of the season, and will commonly be a large offender. ~TDI19!!! <font color="FF0000">...To...<font color="99CCFF">...From... 04:13, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Iva was formerly an EPac mystery retirement, perhaps due to the fact it was confusing with Iwa, which itself became retired due to it's destruction in Hawaii in 1982. My personal pick for Irene, if it even does become retired, would be Irma. And Arlene and Emily weren't bad enough for the places they hit, so I won't offer any replacements for them. Ryan1000 06:49, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).

Here are some more: 70.171.254.210 00:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ilaria
 * Imelda
 * Immacolata
 * Ines
 * Italia
 * Ilene
 * Ivory
 * Ivonette
 * Ivonne
 * Idoya
 * Ivette
 * Izumi
 * Iva
 * Ioanna
 * Irena

Ines seems unlikely due to Inez, which was formerly retired, and Irena seems a little too close to Irene IMO, but if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, both of which are 1 letter-off names, I won't rule it out. Italia seems unlikely as well since it's Spanish for Italy, a country's name(Israel replaced Ismael, a former EPac retiree, but it was never used because Israel felt offended from that name choice and requested it be removed). Again, my personal pick would be Irma. But we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 05:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Remember, Ryan, the statute of limitations on retired names is 30 years. Fabian (which replaced Frederic in 1979) was replaced with Fred in 2003. To follow up Hurricane Maker, I like Inga, but it may be too close to Ingrid, which is already on the list. Irma and Ilsa are also good options. Ivana is an option. I also like Imogen and Ileane but the latter may be too close to Ileana, which is in use in EPAC. Iva and Ivy are two other English options. If I had to pick a favorite, it would probably be either Inga or Ileane, which is phonetically the closest. -- SkyFury 22:54, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, the Federic>Fabian>Fred (mess up) from list 1 doesn't gurantee that the gap must be 30 years(especially since that was the only time it ever happened). Things can be different with replacement names. As I mentioned above, if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, which are both 1-letter off names from the retired name in question, it can't be said that the replacement name must be much different from the retiree in question, and the fact Ileana is in use in the EPac doesn't at all mean that Ileane can't be used as a replacement for Irene because Frank was used in last year's PHS and Franklin, a longer version of Frank and the name in place of Floyd, was used earlier this year in NAtl. So variants of names can be used in both ATL and EPac and replacement names can be one or two letters off from the retiree in question and still be acceptable by the requesting country. If you would rather stay away from variants of in-use names in either basin, names that are close to the retiree, or variants of former retirees, that's fine, but based on the facts, there is no gurantee a name can't be chosen under those conditions. When we requested Isabel of 2003, we send the names Ida, Ina, and Ivy as possible replacements of Isabel. The WMO selected Ida which was used two years ago, so given that they have two more backup "I" names, I wouldn't be surprised if Ina or Ivy is chosen. When a country requests a name to be removed, they send two or three possible names to replace the offending name. If it's different from any other name not in use and not formerly retired, the WMO just goes for it, I guess... My personal pick for Irene, as I mentioned earlier, would be Irma. Ryan1000 03:13, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I was referring to your dismissal of Ines/Inez as an option because it was retired in 1966. Just because it was retired in 1966 doesn't mean it can't be reassigned now that 45 years have passed. The generally accepted statute of limitations is 30 years and so far this has been generally followed, though Fred definately pushed it at exactly 30 years. I agree with you that just because a name is close to one that is retired or in use in another basin does not mean that it can't be used. If it's close to one in use in the Atlantic, however, that might be different. I think Inga is far enough away from Ingrid that it could be used, though it would make more sense as a replacement for Ingrid itself. If I had to pick a favorite, it would be Ileane. I think it flows well, though I imagine it might look a little different spraypainted on plywood. -- SkyFury 06:25, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, as I mentioned earlier, the Frederic>Fabian>Fred trio from list 1 doesn't gurantee the gap must be 30 years. Heck, Rita of 2005 was one of the worst U.S. storms ever and it was replaced with Rina. The difference between Rita and Rina is just about the same as Frederic and Fred IMO. I personally also try to stay away from variations of former retirees, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Ileane wouldn't be bad, given Frank and Franklin are on both lists, there is no gurantee variants of EPac names can't be used in NAtl either. We truly don't know what will happen with replacement names, but I am baffled by some of the WMO's picks. Dean's was the best example of WTF. Fred's choice was baffling, but Dean's replacement name was the worst excuse for a replacement name in the history of ever. Felix and Noel just made it worse... (I'm not reminding you of how silly the French are). Ryan1000 09:22, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

I don´t know why you say Dorian is a bad name for replacement because I really like it and maybe Mexico send that name to replace Dean because in there Dorian is a popular name Allanjeffs 20:58, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">No, it was chosen because somebody important is an Oscar Wilde fan. Ryan, don't get me started on the French, I think you know how I feel about that. Some of the replacement names recently have been absolutely ridiculous. Pretty soon people won't be able to listen to the tropical update without giggling. "Here's Tropical Storm Dorian..." *hysterical laughter*. Dorian was the worst, but Fernand? As far as I'm concerned, that's a typo. Fernando would've been the perfect choice, especially given the Spanish theme and that's the name that I acknowledge. Katia was a little silly but at least it makes sense with the Russian theme of Katrina. Rina sounds like something bad that happens to your kidneys. Gonzalo replacing Gustav was dumb. Isaias is kind of cool. And they redeemed themselves last year with Ian and Tobias, though why Matthew wasn't retired is beyond me, and I'm still confused about Alex and Karl. Apparently they weren't as bad as initially reported. Hanna is still a crime. -- SkyFury 21:24, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Okay, end of that. I won't discuss anymore about the replacement name fails with the WMO. Pisses me off... If any name would be more descent for Gustav, it would have been Gary IMO. Ian should have been Ike's replacement. Why Matthew wasn't retired is no mystery to me because after all the reports I went through with Mexico and Nicaragua after Matthew, it couldn't have done 2.6 billion in damage. That must be a false number. And Mexico hasn't retired many other storms in the past Eric. Alex and Karl are two. Others include Emily of 2005(massive damage on the Yucatan and the gulf coast of Mexico), Liza of 1976(the worst crime in EPac history; as many as 950 deaths in Mexico and no retirement), along with Tara and Tico. Paul of 1982 was also destructive and deadly, but it caused most of it's destruction as a precursor wave and not a named tropical cyclone. Allan, I believe Dean was nominated by Martinique or Guadelupe, not Mexico. Dean did more damage in the lesser antillies than it did in the greater antillies because those smaller lesser islands get little warning of the storm, wheras Jamacia and Mexico have very advanced warning systems for tropical cyclones so they minimize destruction and/or deaths despite the storm's intensity. Agatha of last year is an utter mystery as well... Alma on the other hand, did become retired, but because Alma means "Soul" in Spanish, the reason behind her retirement after 2008 may have been the fact the name itself was offensive and was retired for that reason rather than being destructive. That's my opinion. Mexico is probrably more conservative for retirements than any other country except Haiti(well, they almost never retire names anyway... remember Tomas was nominated by St. Lucia last year). Ryan1000 22:14, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Matthew killed 143 people, Ryan. I couldn't care less what the damage figure is, the death toll is staggering. Death toll > property damage in my book. And also, I think you missed my point earlier. I never said the gap must be 30 years. I said 30 years was generally accepted as an unwritten policy. I never said that limit was a strict stipulation, but it's a courtesy generally adhered to. The only reason I even brought it up in the first place was because you said that Inez/Ines wasn't an option because it had been retired in 1966. I said just because it was retired 45 years ago doesn't mean we can't use it now. You spent a whole lot of time preaching to the choir. You're right, just because a replacement name is similar doesn't mean it can't be used. It's generally frowned upon though to replace a retired name with a shortened form of the same name, like replacing Michael with Mike for example. Or Frederic with Fred, though again, that was not done directly and it satisfied the 30 year statute of limitations. These aren't necessarily rules, just etiquettes. -- SkyFury 03:48, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

I know there isn't a requirement for the gap to be 30 years, but if there are exeptions to the "rule", then we can't say those exeptions won't repeat themselves. I'm not all upset over chosing close names to former retirees, but to some extent(like Ines/Inez), yes. If you also don't like that, that's fine. I also agree with you on the fact deaths should weigh more than damage, but things aren't always that way for retired names. My personal opinion on retired names is dependent on how many problems a storm causes for an entire country as a whole. Hurricane Irene this year cut off transportation, left millions of people without power, and caused extensive damage over a widespread area of the eastern seaboard. Some areas described it as their worst storm in many years(not refering to Darren's opinion there). So Irene has a very good chance of being retired based on that. Worldwide, the only true shoe-in is Yasi of the SPac, but it obliterated entire towns in Quensland from it's massive storm surge and caused many problems for all of Australia. It just has to be retired. Ryan1000 04:45, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Hall of Fame
Hurricane Maker has expressed interest in me resurrecting my Hurricane Hall of Fame. I started it several years ago as just a fun little project, but then I brought it onto Wikipedia and it kind of took off. However it has been dormant since I left Wikipedia in 2010. There has not been an official class since 2008. I always wanted to expand my voter pool and our little tight knit group here on the forums seems like the perfect choice. I was thinking of adding the HOF ballot to our yearly betting pools page. See the link for some background and the rules and guidelines I laid out (years ago...I recently upped the cost limits for automatic nomination and induction). The way it normally worked was that I would make a list of ten nominees from which five would be selected, but I'm definately open to suggestions. I've also developed a seperate Historical Electorate (akin to Cooperstown's Historical Committee) for storms prior to 1875. In the HE, three inductees are selected from a list of ten nominees. What do you guys think? -- SkyFury 23:50, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm interested. At the end of this year, we may add a HOF ballot to the end of this year's betting pools in all basins. I don't know how the selection round will go then, voting process? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:27, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it would be a good idea, considering the fact that many people may express interest. Hurricane Andrew (444) 14:57, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Great idea, CS.10L.NONAME 20:50, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * My question is, if we're going to do this as an end-of-the-year thing, then does that have an impact on the "two seasons old" criterion for inclusion? Also, perhaps voters could submit their own nominations? --HurricaneMaker99 21:00, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * But then again this is the Hurricane Wikia. If we decide to keep the "two year seasons old" criterion, then voting pools can still happen every year, just that hurricanes will only be inducted once 2 seasons old. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:02, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don't worry. There's lots of hurricanes before 2009.10L.NONAME 22:55, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * The ones I personally want inducted are from '07 and '08; I asked in case anyone would have wanted to nominate any post-'09 storms. --HurricaneMaker99 22:58, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Should this be moved to a forum of it's own? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:07, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * What, the section or a new forum for the HOF? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think this should be it's own forum, like the favorite storms of 2011 forum I made earlier this year. The Worldwide activity discussion forum on the TC BasinNAV is for discussing worldwide activity of 2011. I also made one for 2012 as well, but it's made ahead of time. IMO Tip is no. 1 in the hall of Fame. Ryan1000 23:22, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think a separate forum page for this is a better option than the section. We had a huge debate over the same thing related to the WAD being in the EPac forum. The HoH isn't Atlantic only so it shouldn't be in the Atlantic forum. Yqt1001 00:41, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Based on the current consensus...I'll go ahead and make a forum for the HoH and move this. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * I would let SkyFury make it. It's his thing anyways. Yqt1001 00:49, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well I just made it, sorry, but SkyFury can go ahead and edit it to his liking. The forum is here. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:06, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

I've posted a bunch of information if you guys want to check it out. -- SkyFury 03:36, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Post Season Changes
It's not even close to post season yet, but during this lull in activity the NHC has been starting the TCRs already. The TCR for Cindy is out and she isn't as much of a fail as you guys thought. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down to 994mb and they said that Cindy was very close to a hurricane for nearly 8 hours and that any improvements in the eye and Cindy would've been the seasons first hurricane. So while we wait for the other TCRs, what do you guys think could be other changes? I personally think that one of the TS's (either Arlene, Gert or Harvey) will be upgraded to a hurricane and the third time Katia became a tropical storm will be a bit earlier and the upgrade back to a hurricane after that will be earlier also. Yqt1001 19:01, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * They aready finished Adrian.10Q.INVEST 19:54, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

I didn't expect that upgrade on Cindy, but it still spun fish nevertheless and sucked in ACE. We may change the face of this year with Ophelia, which is a story yet to come. Ryan1000 20:04, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I know this isn't really on topic, but did you guys still want to do the Hall of Fame thing at the end of the season. I added a bunch of info to the new forum page but everybody mysteriously lost interest, I guess because TC activity picked up. I never heard what people thought. -- SkyFury 20:24, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm ok with what you said and would still love to do it at the end of this season. I guess everyone is fine and is eagerly waiting until it starts. Yqt1001 20:49, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm actually kind of excited about it. Come November, we're going to really have to start talking about exactly what we want to do and how we want to do it. I have final exams the week of December 4, so we're probably looking at the final voting not taking place until the second or third week of December. Under the current expanded system, we're looking at voting being up to a three week affair, so, if we want to get this done by Christmas, we may want to go ahead and do the preliminary voting before the Thanksgiving holiday, given the spectre of exams for many of us come the last week of Nov/first week of Dec. Life comes first and I want a very relaxed atmosphere about this thing, so that's something I'll be thinking about come mid-October. But we've got plenty of time to think about it. -- SkyFury 06:49, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eugene is done too.10Q.INVEST 21:06, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Ok so after looking over all the microwave imagery for the TS's this year I have given each a percentage that they will be upgraded to a hurricane and why.
 * Arlene; 80% - There wasn't any microwave images for Arlene at peak strength BUT over land she had an eye better defined than Maria ever did so I would be surprised if she doesn't get upgraded.
 * Bret; 30% - He had a well defined eye at one point, but at that time he was in a weakening phase so I don't think he ever got the wind requirement for hurricane status.
 * Don; 0% - No.
 * Emily; 0% - No.
 * Franklin; 0% - No.
 * Gert; 20% - After looking at the microwave images of Gert at peak strength, she never completed more than a half of her eyewall. She probably could be upgraded to 65mph, but I doubt hurricane status.
 * Harvey; 40% - There wasn't any images of Harvey for the few hours before landfall, however the last image before landfall has Harvey with 3/4th of an eyewall, but the image of when Harvey made landfall shows very little in a form of a defined eye. Not even close to what Arlene's eye looked like over land.
 * Jose; 0% - No.
 * Lee; 0% - Never even had a defined center according to microwave imagery.
 * Nate; 0% - He had what appeared to be half an eyewall at peak intensity, but that eyewall was gone when the dry air got to him and he fell apart.

I'll post about the others when the season draws to a close. Yqt1001 20:49, October 3, 2011 (UTC)