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Possible ST forming northeast of Florida
Who knew I'd be the first one to post. On Friday, the model guidance was indicating an occluded cyclone would form in the subtropical Atlantic east of the Bahamas a bit too far from the Gulf Stream for subtropical cyclogenesis near the 72nd meridian (500 hPa-surface temp differences of only 34C, which is neutral moist on a sounding). However, the models changed their track to one parallel and closer to the Gulf Stream, which significantly increases the chance of ST genesis. Temperature differences between the 500 hPa level (20000 feet) and the sea surface temps in the Gulf Stream exceed 40C (unstable moist), which is enough to induce thunderstorms. Sure enough, look what's happenning this afternoon northeast of Florida, with shallow to moderate convection filling the vicinity of the low. Able of 1951 formed in a similar manner, and it became a category 3 hurricane. The track of this cyclone has a chance to be similar, and if it can become a subtropical/tropical storm, it may not shear as badly as the current guidance is suggesting. One of the satellite centers, as of 18z, is already classifying it as an ST2.5 (subtropical storm), and ship reports indicated 45 knot winds around its circulation today. It's been a while since we had a May subtropical storm...since the mid-1970s if I remember correctly. Thegreatdr 22:15, 7 May 2007 (UTC)