Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season

The Hall of Fame returns
Earlier today I promoted TG and Steve to new administrators and No. 1 Mobile to a rollback on Hurricane Wiki per the votes they received on the community vote page. Although he wasn't promoted, I talked with Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) on revitalizing Eric (SkyFury's) Hurricane Hall of Fame, which was started many years ago, but wasn't gone that far into and Eric hasn't posted since the end of the 2012 AHS forum, and he's probably retired by now. But with many more notable storms since Eric's (presumed) retirement, I'd like to start it up again and continue his legacy with inducting more storms into the Hall of Fame. Currently he has a record of storms from the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific, and hasn't gone into the other basins, but with many more users on the wiki since last year's historic AHS, I think we can get a good pool of voters for the hall of fame this year and in coming years. What do you guys think? Ryan1000 23:05, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

August
I think it's time to add this section, even if there is literally no disturbance that is present in this basin right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:55, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic is very boring right now. Hopefully something forms soon... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:14, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Zzzzzzzzzzz...  Send Help Please (talk) 08:56, August 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * CSU mid-season outlooks are out. Numbers raised from 11-4-1 to 12-5-1 after the two July hurricanes. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: 700 miles west of the Azores
FINA-FREAKIN'-LLY! 10/20 as of latest advisory, will most likely flop, but at least it's something! Also, that's got to be one of the weirdest projected development areas I've ever seen. Send Help Please (talk) 07:56, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Nah, watch it somehow develop into Debby and strengthen to a hurricane. :P Leeboy100 Hello!! 08:28, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
TropicalTidbits actually has this up as an invest. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, that was fast.  Send Help Please (talk) 14:32, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Not every day we see a storm moving in a southwesterly direction, especially in this part of the Atlantic. But it probably won't become much; if it becomes Debby, it'll probably remain well out at sea. Ryan1000 16:10, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/30 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:16, August 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/40. Might wind up having to eat my words about this flopping.  Send Help Please (talk) 07:36, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 20/20. Send Help Please (talk) 02:05, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Glad to see something here for the first time in forever (lol). Unfortunately, might be a flop at this point. I still hope it can somehow become Debby though. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 50/50. What.  Send Help Please (talk) 06:04, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Debby
How did this happen...Ryan1000 14:59, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * debby was just impatient for 15 minutes of fame --yare yare daze (talk) 15:01, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

I wasn't really expecting this at first but it wont last long. 40mph and 1008mb.-Nickcoro (talk) 15:05, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Waste of a name.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * next ...zzz... --yare yare daze (talk) 15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

What even. Wasn't even expecting this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:07, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this shouldn't have been named...but oh well. What a fail. Ryan1000 15:10, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Debby is currently weakest NHem TS-strength system for this year. What a joke. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:17, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * What a waste of a name... 😑 This formation was so unexpected. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:00, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Kinda expected Debby from 97L but I did not expect it to be named so soon. Debby has just formed but I know she will definitely be back in 2024. Come back stronger Debby, but be a fishspinner like this one too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:08, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * This was unexpected. I thought this wouldn't even form from the start, although before it was named, it did looked better. Debby just pulled an Emily I guess. Also the NHC just named this straight away for the second time this season, same thing with Alberto. Oh well, what a waste.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   17:51, August 7,
 * Send Help Please (talk) 20:17, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still the same intensity for Advisory # 2. It is looking hopeless for any further intensification, and it may not even become fully tropical. What a disgraceful waste of a name. Debby's anthem... *facepalm* ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:29, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I find it interesting how... erm, subtropical... this season has been so far. Of the four storms we've had so far, only Chris wasn't subtropical at any point in its life. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:58, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Debby
And she transitions to a tropical storm. 45 mph, 1003 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:45, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Uh, yay?  Send Help Please (talk) 10:17, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * zzz zzz ZZZ. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:45, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm just glad to finally have something to track in the Atlantic, as long as Debby doesn't turn out to be indicative of the rest of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:52, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * debby's theme song yare yare daze (talk) 17:03, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * (Un)fortunately, she probably will be. With a strengthening El Nino and less than ideal conditions across the Atlantic, I'm not really expecting an active Atlantic season out of 2018. Ryan1000 17:11, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, me too. Although the MDR of the Atlantic is warming, there is still the SAL and wind shear across the Atlantic, so even then, I don't think this season will be much compared to the two previous years. Especially if we have a subtropical storm in the Atlantic in August, which I think is rare for the Atlantic.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     05:29, August 08, 2018 (UTC)


 * 2013 part ii tbh lol --yare yare daze (talk) 17:31, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Honestly, after the destruction of last year, I wouldn’t mind the Atlantic being quiet this year. Then again, we could get a 1992-esque season where one storm is incredibly destructive, but hopefully that won’t happen. Leeboy100 Hello!! 19:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, this year will probably be close to 2006 (which also used this year's naming list) which gave people a break after 2005 (the costliest year on record for its time, and also used the same naming list as last year). Ryan1000 13:06, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

2004/5: modoki doki el nino

2009/10: similar el nino setup

2018/19: hellish 2019? also considering the fact that italian storm next year who will never settle for anything below hurricane intensity... who knows what he might pull next year?!?? 🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 18:04, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby
As expected, Debby is now on her way out. Try again in 6 years, Little Debby. (As The Weather Channel refers to her as) Leeboy100 Hello!! 21:14, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * And with this, the Atlantic falls into slumber... again...  Send Help Please (talk) 06:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Officially off the NHC site. Look at it this way, at least she didn’t cause any harm in her short lifespan. Leeboy100 Hello!! 06:32, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Tfw GFS doesn't show its usual fantasy storms... ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
Nevermind on that whole slumber thing, a wild AOI appears. 10/20.  Send Help Please (talk) 14:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * I honestly don't see this developing to a tropical cyclone. There is high wind shear across the Caribbean. However this does has a small shot of attaining tropical depression status.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     19:54, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Upping the numbers without stealing a name. I am okay with that. Send Help Please  (talk) 07:00, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Me too, if a system is going to just stay extremely weak, it should only peak as a TD without stealing a precious name off the lists. This one is down to 10/10, and development is not going to happen unless we get a surprise. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:01, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now dead.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     15:35, August 12, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: North Central Atlantic
Another AOI appears, this one with 0/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:54, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Debby 2.0 anyone? Ryan1000 12:26, August 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * I hope not... Anything but another pathetic name-stealer, unless this can somehow peak at 60+ mph. I was a bit surprised Debby managed to reach 50 mph, which although still pathetic, is better than how I expected it to perform. If this one develops, we might have another subtropical system. Alberto, Beryl, and Debby were all subtropical at one point in life. This system could make it 4 out of 5 systems being subtropical at one point in life (it's already 3 out of 4). I doubt I've ever tracked an Atlantic season with so many subtropical systems. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:08, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Now marked as an invest. Also now 10/20. Yeah, I also had never tracked a season with so many subtropical storms, but I'm assuming the high number of subtropical storms id because the subtropics are favorable for tropical cyclone development while the MDR isn't that favorable this year. Having a subtropical storm in August doesn't seem right lol. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     15:41, August 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/30. Idk if this will develop though.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     22:49, August 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/20 because of strong upper-level winds prevailing. I don't think we'll see any further development from this. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:38, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sad to see such a rad name like Ernesto go for a potential flop. BAKA. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 23:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Back up to 20/30. They've actually removed the mention of "strong upper-level winds" from their TWO, and now conditions are expected to be a bit more favorable by mid-week before it enters cooler waters late-week. Ernesto, anyone? ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:36, August 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * 40/40 now. The TWO wording is eerily similar to those written for Debby's precursor. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:54, August 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nagisa from Clannad's restaurant becoming a hurricane LOL! --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:56, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

Now 60/60 and looking very organized on satellite imagery. At this point, I would be shocked if it doesn't become Ernesto (or at least a subtropical depression) by tomorrow morning. Here comes a re-Debby and yet another subtropical system... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:48, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agreed. Even though we may have our 4th subtropical cyclone, I must admit an "E" named storm in mid-August isn't too bad, although most of the atorms so far were weak (expection of Chris)  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:05, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

80/80. I really hope something will come from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:21, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Five
Here comes Ernesto! Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:51, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Geez, they might as well just rebrand this season as the 2018 Atlantic Subtropical Storm Season. The NHC even pointed out this season's subropical tendencies in their discussion.  Send Help Please (talk) 11:40, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * I have to say Ernesto is my third-favorite name on the list after Gordon and Sara, so it saddens me to see this name potentially go to a failure, but c'est la vie... forecast peak of 45 kts as of now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:19, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * This should become Ernesto soon, but it'll probably just be a repeat of Debby and dissipate while moving northeast out to sea. It may not turn fully tropical like Debby did though. Ryan1000 13:02, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Ernesto
Same time as Lane was named, we have SS Ernesto. Expected to peak below hurricane status. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     14:57, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Another good name assigned to a pathetic storm. Sigh...  Send Help Please (talk) 14:57, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ernesto is basically a re-Debby. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 16:40, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Well hey, look on the bright side, even if this year doesn't produce much from here on out, it's at least a break from the historic devastation from last year's AHS. Ryan1000 17:33, August 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * That’s exactly what I’ve been saying all along, Ryan. I honestly hope we just have nothing but fishies the rest of the season. Leeboy100 Hello!! 22:49, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Good point, but I don't think it's a crime to wish for at least one Lee or Jose-like storm that puts on a good show but doesnt have any major land impacts. Send Help Please  (talk) 03:05, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agreed that having a season filled with fishies is much better than a season with powerful monsters causing devastation. However, these fishies should at least try, like Lee or Jose did. I probably sound a bit insensitive for saying this, but I'd take a re-2017 over a season filled with nothing but weak fish name-stealing TSs anyday (think of a 2013-type season, but without storms like Ingrid). I just wish a C5 fishspinner could occur in this basin... It would be a celebration here on these forums if that happened. Back to Ernesto, it is looking like nothing more than a pathetic name-waster. I am sickened to see a relatively good name like Ernesto go to a weak failure STS. What's worse... this may not even become tropical *facepalm* ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:13, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * To be honest, having the fifth storm in mid-August means the pace so far is decent. But I agree that these fishes should actually try to do stuff instead of peaking as weak TSs. I hadn't started tracking TCs in 2013, but I can imagine the agony of having TS after TS not doing anything. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:26, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ernesto
Now tropical, though it doesnt truly matter as this storm is going to be dead soon anyway. All this really accomplishes is creating another parallel with Debby. Send Help Please (talk) 23:04, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Glad it became tropical, although it doesn't help the fact that it's still a pathetic name-waste. Should become post-tropical by tomorrow or so. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:00, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

2013 was a dead season in intensity and ACE, but even a season like that wasn't without some notability (like list 5 has always been), as Ingrid was retired. I wouldn't be surprised if next year (which used the same naming list) has something notable too, since list 5 still has yet to go one usage without having a retired name. Hopefully this year doesn't do that (since it hasn't been that lucky for retirements), but still sees a storm or two like Gordon/Helene '06 or Michael '12. Ryan1000 14:31, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actual title of actual UK news story: UK SHOCK WEATHER FORECAST: Tropical Storm Ernesto heads STRAIGHT for Britain - MAPPED Send Help Please  (talk) 16:07, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * How is this thing even still alive, it's name can't even fit on the NHC's map anymore.  Send Help Please (talk) 00:09, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol ernesto come at me bro --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:32, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ernesto may be the weakest storm of the season so far, but at least it's impressive how far north he's remained tropical. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:37, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol, I'm not interested in nagisa's restaurant passing over me, like it won't do any harm to me lole --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:40, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Ernesto is somehow still going despite the horrendous satellite presentation, and you can barely even see the icon on the NHS's map. Definitely the superior storm of the North Atlantic twins imo, even if Debby was a little stronger. Send Help Please (talk) 02:39, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Advisory 12: Still going! 45 mph/999 mbars! It's not even visible on NHC's page anymore except for a tiny red tail. I don't think I've ever seen an Atlantic system stay tropical so far north. Considering the terrible satellite presentation, it will almost certainly be post-tropical by the next advisory. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:43, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto
And it finally happened. Final NHC advisory issued. Ireland & UK needs to prepare for any effects from this one though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:21, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, this storm finally died. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:29, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Given Joestar's references, I feel as if this  is the appropriate song to play as Ernesto dies. Send Help Please  (talk) 13:32, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * SHP sure thing, but actually ernesto ain't doing anything to me, just clouds, and this song suits this piece of flop better LOL! ¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 14:08, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the song I posted would've fit better if Ernesto was a strong fishspinner and we were actually sad to see it go. Oh well, the feelstaurant will get another chance in 6 years. Send Help Please  (talk) 16:39, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Goodbye to a name-stealer, even though it was resilient and stayed tropical so far north in the end. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:07, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
We have another AOI in the MDR, already marked as an invest, currently at 10/20. Conditions in the Caribbean Sea won't be favorable it seems. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     01:02, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * This could be one to watch, as it looks to have a chance of making it into the Gulf of Mexico where two loop eddies await. Send Help Please  (talk) 03:09, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * For now I doubt this will become much in the short term, maybe a TS at most before encountering the eastern Caribbean. If it can survive the unfavorable conditions there, we might see something significant by the time it reaches the GOM (hopefully not though). This is already reminding me a whole lot like Harvey... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:17, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 20/20, but only has until late Saturday to develop... I would not bet on this becoming anything by then. But like I said earlier, hopefully it doesn't become a monster in the Gulf of Mexico. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:02, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead.  Send Help Please (talk) 00:11, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * The MDR is taking a while to fire up... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:08, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

Don't expect it to fire up as crazy as last year did; after all, there's an El Nino in effect and it's expected to keep this year's AHS near to below-average. Ryan1000 04:39, August 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this year shouldn't be anywhere NEAR last year's activity. At least it will be a break for those affected by the devastating storms of last year (like Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate), unless we get another devastating system later in the season (hope not). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   Wish me  a happy birthday!  🎉  21:53, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

I agree, it's doubtful we'll see any Cat. 5 Cape Verde hurricanes hurtling towards us like last year. If we do get anything bad this year, it'll probably be home-grown like Joaquin or a wave that manages to survive the trip across the Atlantic and into the Carribean or the Gulf, like this wave had the potential to do. Also, happy birthday Steve! Send Help Please (talk) 00:40, August 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, while it is pretty unlikely we will see a C5 this year, we may still get a major hurricane, or worse, a destructive/deadly hurricane, but let's hope that won't happen, especially after last year. The MDR is warming as well, and there are still some shear lying around.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:00, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging from Africa
The Atlantic once again wakes up, and a tropical wave expected to emerge off from Africa, currently at 0/20. The NHC also states this: "Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by early next week." ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:45, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally there is something with potential to develop in the MDR. The region has been sleeping for what seemed like ages. Considering this is over Africa atm, it appears very likely to become Florence with all that ocean up ahead. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:02, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Let's hope this doesn't affect the Caribbean much. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:56, August 23, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 0/10 but who knows, the Atlantic might get another surprise from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:27, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hopefully. I'm sick of the inactivity that the Atlantic is bringing us (especially in the MDR). As long as this keeps away from land, I'm hoping this can manage to become a hurricane. Unfortunately it's likely that the Atlantic will keep feeding us these disappointing failures, and this AOI might not be an exception. We're nearing the peak of the season for Christ's sake. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:27, August 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/0, development not expected in the MDR due to its fast forward speed. If this survives to the GoM however, like the GFS has been showing at very long range (300++ hours from now), there might be trouble. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:46, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Send Help Please (talk) 20:01, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Well, that's El Nino for you...but we still have all of September and October left, we could see a potential MDR major or two later on. Ryan1000 13:31, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ughh... I'm just not used to the Atlantic being so dead at this time of year. A storm has to form in the MDR at some point soon? We're near the peak of the season, and the Atlantic looks hopelessly dead. The basinwide satellite imagery looks more like January than late August. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:31, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa later this week according to the 5-day TWO. 0/20 for now. Send Help Please (talk) 10:22, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/30. For a past few days, models show multiple storm forming at the start of September in the MDR, and one on the Gulf.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:23, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * GFS model is showing a hurricane with pressures in the 970s. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:31, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * For now, I'd take the models with a grain of salt. The Atlantic's MDR region has been very inactive over the past weeks and I'd be surprised if there was a burst at the start of September. Hopefully we do see Hurricane Florence though, to make up for its 2012 incarnation. At least it seems like some activity is on the horizon, as long as it means no land will be threatened. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:41, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. Send Help Please  (talk) 11:51, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/60, and this should be invested anytime now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:19, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Both of the global models develop this into Florence down the road, but recurve it out to sea before hitting the U.S, let alone Bermuda (unlike the 2006 Florence). Also, if it doesn't become Florence before September, we'll only have a two-storm August, both storms of which were weak, short-lived fishspinners in the far north Atlantic, which would the quietest August regarding ACE in 21 years, since 1997. Ryan1000 21:27, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 40/70, and I'm still suprised this hasn't been invested.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:56, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Florence is coming. 60/80, but why is this thing still not invested? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:03, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * That's probably because it's still over land, but this seems like a poor excuse. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:19, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Okay, it is finally invested. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:33, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six
Now a Tropical Storm Warning for Southern Cape Verde. 30mph/1007mb Nickcoro (talk) 15:07, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Potential tropical cyclones are actually numbered like depressions are, I learned that from last year when PTC 10 was actually 10L, so this is 06L, though it'll probably be Florence soon. Due to the northernly position of this storm, it should remain away from any major landmasses down the road, apart from maybe Bermuda (and of course Cape Verde). Ryan1000 15:36, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 90/90, and fingers crossed Cape Verde makes it through nice and easy. By the time I wake up tomorrow morning, I hope to see it be Florence. Finally we are seeing something develop in the MDR... This looks to become a classic Cape-Verde hurricane down the road, and hopefully it will avoid land (except the CV islands). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:35, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Finally a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:55, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence
And now this has been named Florence. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:21, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane strength is no longer in the forecast, but it could still happen down the road. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, only little strengthening is forecast for now. NHC says that Florence is currently over somewhat cool waters and light shear, but that should flip to warmer waters but higher shear. These factors will limit strengthening, but I still won't be surprised if Florence can pull off hurricane intensity. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

SST's aren't too bad actually, just about 80 degrees Fahrenheit, but the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) isn't giving Florence much of a break in terms of dry air, not now or down the road. Bad news, however, is if Flo doesn't get as strong as a hurricane, then she could, as indicated by the 00Z run of the Euro yesterday, end up moving farther west towards the U.S. eastern seaboard or Atlantic Canada. So hoping for Flo to get stronger sooner may actually be a good thing, as that means she'll be more likely to be a fishspinner that'll recurve northeast down the road. Ryan1000 05:33, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is changing little in intensity, and nothing interesting is expected to come out of this storm until 120 hours, when it'll enter more favorable conditions such as warmer waters and lower shear. I hope Florence can try its hardest to lessen the chance of it being a threat to the U.S. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:00, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Florence is ingesting some dry air as we speak from the SAL and SST's, though not frigid, are less than ideal for a hurricane to form. Flo is also a fairly small storm like Beryl earlier this year, so she's vulnerable to dissipating to even slight changes in the environment around her. But that tiny size could also come in her favor and cause her to RI later in the forecast period, like how Beryl unexpectedly became a hurricane in the MDR. I just hope it happens sooner rather than later, because if Florence does RI down the road but doesn't do so fast enough, Flo could be a serious threat down the road to the U.S. or to Bermuda. The current run of the GFS takes Florence north and east of Bermuda but eventually takes her to a landfall in Newfoundland, but the Euro has doubled down on their previous forecast and now makes Florence a 955 mbar category 3 storm heading straight for the mid-Atlantic states or New England. While it's 9 days ahead, the Euro is still typically the more reliable model between it and the GFS. I'm hoping the GFS is right on this one, because we don't want Florence to be a severe storm for the east coast, especially after the beating the U.S. saw from last year on the Gulf coast and northeastern Caribbean Islands. Ryan1000 05:39, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Flo is now strengthening slightly, up to 65 mph and 997 mbars, but shear is expected to keep her in check the next day or two, plus the storm still has some dry air to deal with. The Euro is still insistent on Florence heading farther west towards a U.S. landfall, but the GFS wants to turn Florence northward, though the latest 12Z run takes her slightly closer to Bermuda than before. Flo is still a storm to watch out for. Ryan1000 16:07, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Considering how full of it the GFS is being with Gordon. I am more inclined to believe the Euro in regards to Florence. --Whiplash (talk) 17:12, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence now 70/995 per latest advisory, just below hurricane strength, however, the NHC cone still has Florence staying as a TS, though that may be unlikely.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:39, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * A bit surprised Florence is already near hurricane intensity, but contrary to the NHC forecast, I won't be too surprised if it intensifies 5 more mph to briefly reach hurricane strength before it encounters less favorable conditions. After 5 days, Florence should certainly become a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:37, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

I actually think the GFS may get the track of Flo right, but they're being too aggressive on the intensity of the storm on it's projected track; the current run projects a 920 mbar storm moving right north of Bermuda before turning northeast out to sea or towards Newfoundland. I doubt Florence will get that powerful, but that general track may be accurate down the road, unless Florence stays weak or weakens faster and stays further south than the current forecast. I don't buy for a second that Flo will move west-southwest by the time she reaches Bermuda and eventually hit Jacksonville or Cape Canaveral, Florida as a 971 mbar storm as the Euro currently shows. If Flo does reach or threaten the U.S. east coast, it'll be from the southeast (passing through or just north of the Bahamas) if she stays weaker. Ryan1000 05:16, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Still below hurricane strength, but expected to finally become a hurricane by the end of the forecast (Sunday). Bermuda may still need to prepare for this one, as Florence may pass close to the island. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:46, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence
Finally. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:41, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Flo could weaken to a TS soon due to shear, but she's forecast to regain category 1 strength by the time she reaches a point near Bermuda late in the forecast period. Ryan1000 15:50, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I am concerned about what the strong high pressure system over New England could do to Florence. If Florence is weak enough, the high pressure system may bring Florence towards the East Coast, where some models explodes Florence, while other models explodes Florence early enough to influence the two high pressure systems (one on NE and another near Europe, and put Florence out to sea. This is too early to know for sure but its something to note.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     16:54, September 04, 2018 (UTC)
 * Winds increased to 85 mph, pressure down to 984 mb. However, Florence is still expected to weaken back to a TS in the next few days/hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now an 85 kt/976 mbar Category 2 and forecast to maintain hurricane strength for the rest of the forecast period. Chris might not last much longer as the season's intensity champion at this rate. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:51, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, looks like Flo did what Beryl couldn't do, and got stronger in the open Atlantic. This means Flo could recurve sooner, assuming she maintains this intensity, but Bermuda still may need to watch out. Ryan1000 04:19, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Florence
Incredible strengthening from Florence in the face of marginal conditions. Up to 105kt/961mb. Kiewii 12:50, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * One could say Florence is a well-oiled machine ;D go, Flo, go! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Will be eagerly anticipating the next runs of the GFS and Euro with the strengthening that wasn't expected to see if they wildly steer her back out to sea. If they don't start to do so in the next few runs time to start getting a bit more concerned by this system. Florence is wildly unpredictable and also no matter where she goes her influence could impact the rest of the development of the hurricane season. Seen some discussion that if she were to make a landfall the perturbations in the atmosphere could create enough windshear across the basin to seriously impede development for the remainder of the season. The Atlantic is now the Florence show. --Whiplash (talk) 15:26, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a 115 kt/953 mbar Category 4 per Tropical Tidbits/ATCF. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, Flo is really defying her forecast expectations, if this keeps up she might maintain major hurricane intensity despite marginal conditions over the next few days. Bermuda is still potentially in the firing line of Flo though, hopefully she misses the island down the road. Ryan1000 19:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Wow. So far, Florence is my favorite Atlantic hurricane. Such an overperformer. Just don't affect Bermuda please.

UPDATE: She is now officially a Category 4. All seasons, from 2014 to 2018 have seen at least one Category 4 now. (Gonzalo, Joaquin, Matthew, Nicole, Harvey, Irma (peaked as C5), Jose, Maria (also C5)). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:34, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * The new cone shows Florence briefly weakening below major hurricane status due to shear, and then restrengthen back to a major hurricane. However, with Florence over performing the NHC, who knows what other surprises Florence pulls up her sleeves. Anyways, with Florence this strong, a curve away from the US East Coast is getting more likely, but not ruled out. In the other hand, Florence may still be a threat to Bermuda in the coming days.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:05, September 05, 2018 (UTC)


 * Three fun facts:
 * Florence is the first Atlantic hurricane bearing a name from List IV to reach Category 4 intensity since Keith in 2000.
 * At the 5am September 4 advisory, Florence was forecast to be a 55-kt TS at 1800 UTC September 5. Florence exceeded that forecast by 60 kts.
 * According to this tweet, Florence has reached Category 4 intensity farther northeast than any other Atlantic hurricane on record. (Which would explain why it seemed so odd to see a Category 4 hurricane in Florence's current location...)
 * --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:14, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Depends exactly on how "northeast" is defined; in that tweet he states Flo was the farthest northeast an Atlantic storm did so while east of 50W, a fairly specific parameter. Ellen of 1978 reached cat 4 intensity just south of Newfoundland, which could be considered farther northeast than Flo's current position, though Flo is certainly the farthest northeast cat 4 in the tropical Atlantic (just south of the tropic of cancer, 23.5 degrees north). Ryan1000 00:50, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also, the high pressure system over Canada right now may end up forcing Florence farther west instead of turning her out to sea as we might hope; the current 18Z run of the GFS makes Florence a 953 mbar strong category 3 storm hitting Virginia and Delaware before turning northeast just south of Long Island and out to sea, that would be a first in the reliabe track record, while the 12Z Euro takes Florence in a similar direction, but they're currently not caught up with Flo's unexpected intensity jump; also they pull Flo offshore before making landfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Both of them take her south of Bermuda though, but this storm has already been a very tricky storm to forecast intensity-wise, so all of the projected tracks by the models should be taken with a grain of salt as well. Ryan1000 01:59, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

11 PM advisory downs Flo to 125/956, and forecast track now goes south of Bermuda, but it's still too soon to tell the long-term track of Flo. Ryan1000 03:05, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I'm really surprised Florence RI'd in only marginal conditions! I swear, when I looked at NHC this morning, I was astonished... to say the least. A C4 there is very unusual, and like others have said, it's the furthest northeast C4 ever recorded. Hopefully it stays out to sea... especially due to the uncertain forecast, currently I fear for Bermuda and possibly the East Coast. If Florence heads into Bermuda straight-on as a major hurricane, we could be dealing with a re-Fabian of sorts, and we don't need another U.S. disaster especially after last year. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:20, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

If anyone wants nightmare fodder go look at the GFS's landfall scenarios. Most of them involve some sub-900mb storm hitting Bermuda, the Carolinas, or Virginia. (Obviously not going to happen tho.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:29, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I guess this would be a good time to remind people to... Beware the first storm of September!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:53, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

It's been a while since Eric's adage last came into effect...I believe Ike of 2008 was the last time that happened. Irma would've done that last year if it formed slightly later too, and if some of the recent runs of the GFS or Euro come to pass, Florence may do that too. Hopefully not though, if a major hurricane hits the mid-Atlantic...I can't imagine how destructive it would be. Bermuda also isn't completely out of the woods either. Ironically, the 06Z GFS run today actually keeps Flo offshore of the mid-Atlantic while the Euro's doesn't, but that run of the GFS also shows Florence becoming a 938 mbar category 4 storm directly hitting Bermuda, hopefully that doesn't happen. Ryan1000 12:18, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (2nd time)
Down to 90 kts/975 mbar. Ryan, Jose also came close to verifying Eric's adage last year; it would have done so if effects in the Leewards or along the U.S. East Coast had been as severe as they could have been. Eric's adage operationally verified in 2011 with Lee, but a storm was determined in post-analysis to have sneaked in just a day before Lee. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:58, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Eric mentioned that post-season 2011 storm when he was last here in 2012 while Michael was active, though Lee would've otherwise done that, and Jose...was close, but no cigar. Also, had Jose been worse last year (or had Ophelia struck the Azores as a major hurricane), 2017 would've been the first year to have 3 consecutive retired names. 2016, two years ago, also came close to doing that (Matthew, Nicole, and Otto), but the worst of Nicole missed Bermuda just slightly to the south. Florence may be a close call for Bermuda this time around, just like her 2006 incarnation, which formed and approached Bermuda at almost this exact same time 12 years ago. Ryan1000 15:20, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to a Category 1 per latest STWO, now at 80/989.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:39, September 06, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence (2nd time)
Down to TS intensity, 70 mph and 993 mbars. The projected track for Flo has shifted well south of Bermuda at this point, but even though Bermuda might be out of the woods if that happens, Florence could come much closer to the eastern seaboard down the road if she follows this track. The 18Z GFS still keeps Flo offshore, but many of the recent Euro runs take Flo to a landfall on the east coast. Previously it was Virginia and the mid-Atlantic, now it's Cape Hatteras, NC in the 12Z run. Ryan1000 03:11, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Getting increasingly frightened about this. The East Coast appears to directly be in Florence's path, and unless it does a sharp turn north and northeast, Florence will hit the coast as a potentially powerful monster. This feels like a re-Isabel, Fran, or 1933 Chesapeake–Potomac hurricane. Florence could very well become a retirement candidate (first or second, depending on how bad Gordon's totals are). Hopefully it can stay offshore, like a re-Earl (2010). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:50, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now we got a situation here. Florence is expected to re-intensify to a Category 4 at the end of the NHC forecast. She may either do a Joaquin/Edouard and just parallel the East Coast, or do a Fran/Floyd/Hugo and hit the Mid-Atlantic. Florence may get the boot this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:38, September 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Both of the global models now take this to a landfall on the eastern seaboard somewhere, the Euro does so near Charleston, South Carolina while the GFS does so in north Carolina and then moves Flo northward over Chesapeake Bay and into the Mid-Atlantic over Maryland, DC, and even into Pennsylvania, all while retaining formidable intensity. Since a sizeable hurricane has never moved northward through Chesapeake Bay before, I'm hoping the Euro is right this run around, because if the GFS verifies then Flo would be much worse. But if either model forecast comes to fruition, then our last original "F" name since 1979 will be as good as gone after this year. Isaac could be too, if TD 9 becomes Isaac while TD 8 becomes Helene. Ryan1000 00:55, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here's exactly how much model runs have shifted with Flo. It's just a question of how much further south they shift and eventually where they will converge. Not looking good so far. My opinion after looking at the trends and high pressure is the models will move a little more south over the weekend and zero in on a north Florida to Savannah landfall. As long as it stays north of Tampa, I'm gravy, but I can't say the same about the many others that will likely be impacted. I have a very bad feeling Florence will make Irene look like nothing. Owen 05:23, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is looking increasingly ominous for the East Coast. If it continues on current track, the Carolinas or even Georgia/north Florida will most likely be hit by Florence's ferocity. If the high pressure ends up being weaker than expected, it will try to recurve, but still hit up north in the New Jersey/Maryland/Delaware region. The chances this will stay out to sea is now extremely low. Florence will most likely be another Floyd/Hugo/Fran/Isabel/1933 C-P hurricane and may strike as a powerful major. Here comes a retirement candidate and likely one of the costliest hurricanes on record... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:22, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Flo has been recovering from the effects of shear over the past few hours and the small storm seems to be getting its act together by now. Unfortunately, despite being only a tropical storm, Flo's small size means rapid intensification is a very real possibility, and now Flo is expected to become a 145 mph category 4 monster taking direct aim at South Carolina. At this rate, Charleston could be directly in the firing line from this storm, and if Flo gets that powerful before striking the Palmetto state, then she could be even worse than 140 mph Hurricane Hugo 29 years ago in 1989. If that verifies, Flo would also be the first major hurricane to hit the Atlantic eastern seaboard of the U.S. since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004, and the first category 4 since Andrew in 1992. The NHC track is following the exact same course that the 00Z Euro projects, though the GFS still wants to take Flo recurving up into North Carolina and/or the mid-Atlantic states. Ryan1000 13:52, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * New NHC track is out, Flo is still a strong TS, but will likely become a hurricane any time now, and Flo is now forecast to directly strike Wilmington, NC as a powerful 130 mph cat 4 storm, which would make it the first cat 4 to strike NC since 1954's Hazel hit near the SC/NC border. GFS has recently wanted to keep Flo just offshore, but the Euro is predicting a headlong landfall in the state, or South Carolina. Either way, Flo is definitely an increasingly dangerous storm that bears watching over the next few days. Ryan1000 05:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is now expected to make landfall at 120 mph, this could easily become the strongest hurricane to strike the state since Fran. Now is the time to prepare. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:43, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (3rd time)
Back to hurricane status. Florence is now forecast to peak at 145 mph. We now have a situation here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now at 85mph. NHC now predicting winds of up to 150 and some more models suggesting this could become a Category 5... I believe this would be the most northerly Category 5 ever if it holds out? Pretty sure this will be retired by this point. --Whiplash (talk) 21:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) Stronger as of the new 5 pm EDT advisory. 75 kts/975 mbars. Florence is now also forecast to peak at 150 mph before slamming into the Carolinas as a strong Cat 4, late Thursday or early Friday. I think it might be safe to say that we might be seeing the last usage of the only remaining original 'F' name. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:05, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence's rip tides have killed her first victim. RIP. 2 others badly injured. --Whiplash (talk) 21:51, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

As if things couldn't get any worse...forecaster Blake said in [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/092053.shtml? the latest discussion] that Florence could stall just after moving ashore due to another ridge that could build over the Ohio river valley later this week, and if that happens we could see another Harvey-like megaflood, but this time in North Carolina instead of southeastern Texas. Florence could end up being North Carolina's most severe hurricane on record at this rate, and it would also be the first time on record in which a major hurricane hit the United States under this year's naming list...although Sandy was very bad in 2012, it wasn't an official major hurricane by Saffir-Simpson Scale windspeed. The only other major hurricane to hit Wilmington, NC since the sattelite era began was 120 mph Hurricane Fran 22 years ago in 1996. If Florence hits the city as a 140 mph category 4 as forecast, then she could be much, much worse. Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * A dear friend of mine moved down to Charlotte just a couple weeks ago. Needless to say, I'm starting to worry... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:40, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

I don't think Charlotte will be as severely impacted by inland flooding as much by Flo as other areas of the mid-Atlantic, but I just checked out Dr. Master's latest blog post on Flo, and he said that the inland flooding from this storm will likely extend far to the northeast of where the storm stalls after moving ashore, like with Harvey last year, but unlike Harvey, whose flooding was most extreme around the Houston metro area, Florence's rain would instead be extending into southeastern Virginia and possibly even northern Virginia, Maryland, and southeastern Pennsylvania. If the 06Z run of the GFS verifies, as stated in that blog post, then Florence could dump at least 20 inches of rain over southeastern Virginia and 10 or more inches of rain as far north as DC, Baltimore, and even Philadelphia. He's already talking about the possibility of Florence being "the Harvey of the eastern seaboard", but unlike southeastern Texas, if a Harvey-like megaflood struck the many densely populated cities of the mid-Atlantic, it would cause an unprecedented humanitarian crisis that would dwarf anything we saw last year or even in 2005. To add insult to injury, DC, Philly, and other parts of the mid-Atlantic had their wettest summer on record and the ground can't absorb any more water in some of those areas. This is looking really, really bad...Ryan1000 00:01, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 90/974, forecast to be a major tomorrow, and not only pick up speed but enlarge in size. Keep your eyes out... Ryan1000 03:25, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is extremely scary. I worry for everyone in the Carolinas and surrounding regions, like Dylan's friend, Bobnekaro, and anyone else from that region. This is going to be very bad if it hits as a C4, or god forbid... a C5. And considering the record rainfall that has already occurred there, this will just add insult to injury. This is going to get catastrophic... 😰 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:38, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Florence (2nd time)
...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... 115 mph and 962 mbars as of the 11AM advisory. Forecast to make landfall or be very close to the NC coast as a 145 mph category 4 monster. This is looking really bad for Wilmington...and inland flooding could be worse if Flo slows down or stalls. Ryan1000 14:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...Just RI'ed to a Category 4 hurricane, now at 130/946. If this continues, a C5 is unfortunately, a possibility.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     16:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

This is a really dangerous storm, the NHC expected a cat 4 from Florence 12 hours from now, but it looks like Flo is defying intensity forecasts yet again, but this time it's not a good thing. At all. If Flo becomes a cat 5, it's inevitable that Flo will be a strong cat 4 at her landfall in North Carolina, and it's expected to directly strike the city of Wilmington (approximately 282,000 people living in the metro area), which would have catastrophic results. Wilmington and other areas in North Carolina formerly suffered roughly 3.2 billion dollars in damage from Fran's 120 mph landfall there in 1996, but if Florence hits as a 145 mph or stronger storm, Fran would look like a mere historical footnote compared to Florence. The potential for Harvey-like flooding from Flo's expected stalled motion after landfall isn't any better, and if the worst of Flo's rainfall hits the multiple major cities of the upper mid-Atlantic (DC, Baltimore, Philly, Richmond, Raleigh, ect), then Florence's damage may rise to Katrina-like figures when all is said and done...lord help the people of the mid-Atlantic from this monster. Ryan1000 17:03, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

HOLY SH*T. A dropsonde has found cat 5 winds with Florence.

949mb (Surface) 220° (from the SW) 143 knots (165 mph)

It'll be interesting to see if this is actually materializing the way that is essentially the worst case scenario. Dropsondes measure instantaneous wind, not 1-min like the NHC does so I'm not quite sure if these winds are her true intensity as of yet, but she is rapidly intensifying nonetheless and there's nothing in her way besides a possible EWRC. I personally think she's headed for a 175 mph peak - as those winds are already seen in the 924 mbar levels of Florence. Owen 17:23, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now I am removing Florence as one of my favorite storms this year. (I'd reinstate her if and only if she doesn't hit land; highly unlikely for now though.) This is becoming a mix of Hugo, Fran, Floyd and Harvey, and maybe even Katrina and Sandy. If that data above verifies, the East Coast is almost certainly in the worst case scenario. We really won't have a Category 5 fishspinner again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:07, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * This storm is very bad.If the GFS runs come to fruition,this could dump 100+ Inches of rain on NC/VA. No.1 Mobile (talk) 18:16, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 939 mb, winds up to 140 mph. Still expected to peak at 150 mph. Now forecast to peak at 155 mph. May this storm do a last-ditch miracle... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:55, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * An ERC would be fantastic right about now. I live in western SC, so this storm has been the talk of the town as of late. Send Help Please  (talk) 21:01, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * An ERC is the last thing you need right now. An ERC would expand the storm and allows it to strengthen further.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nuts. Guess the only hope is for some miracle shear to just pop up out of nowhere, which will not happen. Looks like it's time for me to get a canoe and prepare for the imminent downpour. Also, I don't think anyone ever wants to see an NHC discussion begin with "Unfortunately, the models were right". Send Help Please (talk) 22:41, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

It's hard to admit that this could be a near-worst-case scenario, but it is rapidly looking that way. Given how Flo has defied expectations, I wouldn't be surprised if Flo becomes a 5 approaching the coastline, but it'll probably be a 4 at landfall. But regardless of the exact peak intensity of this thing, a 140-145 mph landfall near Wilmington is going to have catastrophic results. The Weather Channel is already forecasting at least 12 to 18 inches of rainfall over Raleigh, the capital of NC, and it could extend further north into Richmond, DC, and other major cities up the mid-Atlantic into next week. Florence has also been enlarging in size recently, so the hurricane could have a larger reach of rainfall and storm surge when she does move ashore. Ryan1000 00:58, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also @Isaac, unfortunately, it looks like an ERC is taking place. That'll only make Flo bigger and wetter for North Carolina when she arrives, even if her winds aren't nearly as high. But, given SST's about 2 degrees C above normal, Flo would reintensify in a snap if this is confirmed in the 11 PM discussion. Ryan1000 01:39, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * One good thing about the ERC is that it may keep Florence weaker than it otherwise would be. But since the main cause of hurricane deaths are from flooding & storm surge, strength isn't as much as a concern compared to how it might bring devastating floods to the Carolinas and East Coast. Extremely frightening storm may re-RI to C5 intensity once the ERC is finished, and bring a doomsday scenario to the eastern seaboard. Lord help them... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:14, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Um, the ERC looks like it's ending. Not good. Recon is approaching the center as I type this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:47, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence has gotten such an annular structure that once the ERC ends I see practically nothing from stopping Florence from going Category 5 later today. Got my next two days off work after today too so gonna spend all my time following this system. --Whiplash (talk) 11:35, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Florence is scaring the heck out of me. It is a much bigger storm now, and seems to be getting its act back together since the EWRC. It seems the Atlantic got tired of sparing the US from major hurricanes from 2005-2016, because this will very likely be the fourth major hurricane to make landfall in the US in the past two seasons. Leeboy100 Remembering those lost on 9/11, Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:37, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * And the new advisory just came out. Florence is restrengthening again. 140 mph/945 millibars. Predicted to get up to 155 mph on Wednesday evening. Leeboy100 Remembering those lost on 9/11, Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:43, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

The ERC that she underwent overnight not only made Florence annular in appearance but it also significantly enlarged the windfield of the storm, tropical storm-force winds now go a whopping 175 miles away from the center of Florence and hurricane-force winds go 60 miles out. Flo's annular structure looks similar to Hurricane Daniel in the EPac back in 2006, but Flo could get even stronger and is affecting land. A cat 4 landfall is almost inevitable at this point, and the tucked-back position of the area of North Carolina that Florence is striking will only worsen the effects of storm surge, and Flo's slowed motion after landfall from the high pressure ridge over the Ohio valley could lead to record flooding in the state, far worse than Floyd or Matthew. This is going down in the record books... Ryan1000 21:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane warning issued for the northern South Carolina coast and the North Carolina coast. This will be catastrophic. Forecast continues to take it on the brink of C5, and it could very well reach that intensity as goes headlong into the Carolinas. Large-scale flooding especially from already saturated grounds, storm surge, extreme winds, etc. could make this become a historic cataclysm and the costliest storm EVER. It's becoming annular now?! Heck no! I have no words anymore... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:18, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 130 mph. Forecast to reach 145 mph but will weaken to 100 mph once near the coast. Still a hurricane to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:59, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * If Florence stalls near the coastline, she might not be as powerful at landfall as earlier forecast, even moreso if Florence doesn't restrengthen to a stronger cat 4 later on today, but Flo's huge size means storm surge is going to be a severe threat no matter how strong she is at landfall in NC, and inland flooding too. Landfall location also shifted southward a bit to just north of the SC/NC border, but Wilmington is still in the danger zone. Ryan1000 10:54, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is quite perplexing in the fact that her eye never really seems to stabilize enough for the RI to get going, this seems to be due to a never ending stream of ERCs. Not sure if this is good or bad as if it keeps up could lower the wind intensity at landfall. But the increased size of the storm will likely offset the benefits this would otherwise do to storm surge and ultimate damage outcome... --Whiplash (talk) 13:33, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Florence's pressure fell to 943 as of the latest advisory, also Flo has some dry air in her way which may be hindering intensification somewhat, but she's still forecast to hit 145 mph before weakening prior to her NC landfall. Ryan1000 14:18, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * These repeating ERC’s remind me of Irma last year. I don’t even know how many eyewall replacement cycles Irma went through before dramatically intensifying into a Category 5. Thankfully, the end result of Irma’s strengthening after the ERC’s is very unlikely with Florence. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 18:54, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * By the way, I forgot to mention in my last post. Florence has weakened to a Category 3. 110 kts/948 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 18:58, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Pressure up to 949, winds down to 120 mph. Florence is about to stall off the coast. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:45, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Almost a C2 now... 115 mph. Still life-threatening though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:40, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Carolinas may see some relief from wind shear that is currently tearing at Florence. However, she is also about to go over the gulf stream and some convection has begun to reappear around the eye. Whether this can get organized and allow her to stay a major hurricane remains to be seen. Either way the now very expansive windfield will continue to make the surge more similar to that of a major huricane than its category would suggest not to mention the rain... --Whiplash (talk) 01:05, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Florence was entraining a bit of dry air before, but due to ERC's the storm has now expanded to almost 200 miles across, and hurricane-force winds go 85 miles out from the center, which could lead to a storm surge equivalent to Florence's category 4 peak before. Florence is starting to look like Isabel more than Hazel at this point, as both this and Isabel were giant-size hurricanes at landfall, but weaker than their initial peaks, and both storms had (or will likely have in the case of Florence) an inland flood threat that could be worse than the initial coastal impacts. Wilmington is still directly in the firing line for a near-direct hit from Flo, and she still has some time to reintensify a little bit today before hitting Wilmington as a 115 mph major hurricane sometime Friday morning or afternoon, or as a slightly weaker but still formidable category 2 storm. But the slowing motion of Florence near the coastline and high uncertainty in the track of Florence inland (hence why the cone is so wide) can be a big problem for inland areas of the Carolinas and possibly other areas in the upper mid-Atlantic. Especially if Florence stalls right after crossing the coast, since that means Flo will have less weakening from interaction with land and more moisture buildup from the ocean, leading to even more severe inland flooding than from a faster-moving storm like Isabel. Ryan1000 02:38, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (4th time)
Weakening further. Cat 2 now. 110 mph/957 mbars. Still a dangerous storm. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 02:50, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 11 PM advisory is out, 110 mph and 957 mbars. Down to category 2 because of this, but some slight restrengthening is still possible before landfall. EDIT: Ninja'd. Ryan1000 02:51, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

A bit surprised it weakened this much. It might be because of the ERCs, large size and also NHC's discussion says that 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear was affecting Florence. Despite the weakening, no one there should even think about letting their guard down. This could still get catastrophic with flooding and stuff. A slowdown looks like it will occur after landfall, further worsening the flooding potential. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:43, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

September
September is just around the corner; might as well add this section now, especially now that the Hispaniola AOI is expected to form in September – if it ever forms. Add that AOI to this section if it organizes to a TD or a TS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:02, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Hispaniola
Not officially invested or mentioned on TWO, but many global models are hinting that this tropical wave could spell trouble for interests from Bahamas all the way to the Gulf Coast. Because of the timing of the wave near Africa, I would throroughly expect this system to be Gordon. Waters are warm in the GOM and systems that get there don't play around or abide by the rules. Let's keep our eyes open for him. Owen 11:59, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm assuming the AOI south of Hispaniola the NHC now has is this AOI you mentioned. It is forecast to enter the Gulf in the coming days. Currently at 0/10 due to land proximity.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:08, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * And strong upper-level winds are currently hitting the system, but conditions could allow for development in the long term. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a GOM monster... I never had a good feeling about the name "Gordon". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:38, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

This is still at 0/10, but the NHC expects development to be more likely when it reaches a point southwest of Florida in the GOM down the road. Also, the Euro is picking up on two more waves behind PTC 6. Depending on the development of those 3 storms, we could be up to Isaac by the 2nd week of September or so. But because of the Bermuda High's placement, these storms are currently expected to turn west-northwest and eventually northeast out to sea. GFS no longer makes PTC 6 a hit on Bermuda down the road. Ryan1000 18:43, August 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up 10/40... Send Help Please  (talk) 15:36, September 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * Development area extended from the Florida Panhandle to south of Louisiana and near Texas. The long-range GFS even took this to the Texas/Mexico border. Hopefully this AOI doesn't get too strong before hitting land somewhere in the Gulf. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/50. Since the start of 2018, I had an eerily feeling for the names Gordon, Helene and Michael.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:33, September 02, 2018 (UTC)


 * I have the same feeling for those exact 3 names. If this becomes Gordon, it could explode in the GOM, strike the Gulf Coast, and fulfill our fear. Or if this doesn't become strong, it could be a major flooding disaster like Allison or a weak Harvey. But let's hope it doesn't become either of these. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:37, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

I've had bad feelings for Florence and Isaac on this year's naming list, as well as Gordon, the former two because they're the only original "F" and "I" names since 1979 that haven't been retired (though Isaac came close last time in 2012), and Gordon may eventually want to avenge his 1994 snub. Though it may not happen with this storm if it becomes Gordon, assuming it doesn't get too strong in the GOM down the road. Ryan1000 05:23, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/60 now. Perhaps Gordon may come from this one. Let's see whether this becomes Hermine 2.0 or Julia 2016 version 2, or worse, Allison/Isaac 2.0. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:43, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Raised to 50/80. Gordon is coming, even if this ain't an invest yet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:36, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Now it's invested, per Tropical Tidbits. Still at 50/80 on the NHC's TWO. Ryan1000 17:26, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 70/90 per TWO.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:44, September 02, 2018 (UTC)


 * And the Atlantic has finally came back to life. I am not looking forward to any destruction though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:04, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven
Now a PTC. Here's hoping that shear will keep this at bay. Send Help Please (talk) 21:24, September 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to peak at 60 mph before striking the mouth of the Mississippi delta. Unless it unexpectedly RI's, I doubt it'll be too severe for the New Orleans area. Ryan1000 21:31, September 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, I had a feeling all year that "Gordon" would be something possibly significant. Due to this, I won't be extremely surprised if it actually tries to RI in the Gulf or, if not, it turns into a major flooding disaster. Hopefully none of my scare-predictions come true and it is only going to be a tropical storm when it makes landfall in Louisiana, and not be anything bad. The NHC forecast does seem to slow it down over Texas-Oklahoma as a dissipating system, and that might be a hint of what's to come with future forecasts (like seeing it stalling over land, potentially causing major flooding). Hopefully not though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:10, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Dylan also noted a trend back in 2012 (the last time Gordon was used) that may be broken with this storm; over the past 40 years, every season with the 8 in it's one's place has had its "G" name retired: Greta in 1978, Gilbert in 1988, Georges in 1998, and Gustav in 2008, but it looks like Gordon of 2018 won't be doing that. Ryan1000 05:44, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gordon
It skipped tropical depression status and immediately became this. It is forecast to strike New Orleans with 60 mph winds by Wednesday. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:45, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Landfall shifted a bit to the north now, and is expected to strike the Louisiana-Mississippi border. Currently, Gordon is hitting south Florida near Homestead, just south of Miami. Rainfall is the only real threat from a weak TS like Gordon. Ryan1000 13:44, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Watch issued from the mouth of the Pearl River to the MS/AL border. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:46, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to reach 70 mph. There is a chance that we might see another Hurricane Gordon from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:31, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Hmm...Gordon's been organizing a bit lately, maybe he could reach cat 1 strength just before hitting the Gulf Coast like Nate did in October of last year. Ryan1000 16:10, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * I think RI is looking increasingly likely as it is already forming what looks like the beginning of a an eyewall/core and it has only been offshore Florida for like 2 hours. I wouldn't rule out even a Category 2 in a worst case scenario. It is extremely small and becoming increasingly well defined. --Whiplash (talk) 16:39, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also can I take this moment to say the 12Z GFS is totally bonkers with its prediction and should probably be ignored since it isn't representing this storm well at all. --Whiplash (talk) 17:04, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon now up to 50/1007, and according to this tweet, Gordon may have started to RI.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:50, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * The change is official as of latest advisory, and the NHC notes the possibility of it hitting Cat. 1, though it looks to be getting it's act together very fast. This brings back memories of the NHC predicting a Cat. 1 landfall out of Harvey early in its life...  Send Help Please (talk) 18:05, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * New cone for Gordon now shows Gordon becoming a hurricane just before landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi border, thus giving out a Hurricane Warning for that region.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:54, September 03, 2018 (UTC)

Still 60 mph/1003 mbars as of the latest advisory, and threatening the Gulf Coast around Mississippi as a potential hurricane. I hope they make it through okay! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:52, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Gordon has only a day or so to become a hurricane before landfall, Harvey had about two and a half from when he was rapidly organizing to approaching Texas, also Gordon's not nearly as well-organized as Harvey was right now. Category 2 might be pushing it a bit, but Gordon could very well become a 1. Ryan1000 05:04, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Now I am starting to think we will not see a hurricane from this one. It is moving fast at 17 mph, but its winds are already at 65 mph. Gordon has only a few hours to become a hurricane operationally. The Gulf Coast still needs to prepare though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:42, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still 65 mph as of the latest advisory, but NHC still expects Gordon to become a hurricane before hitting Louisiana and Mississippi. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:45, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon may be following Fay 2008 after all, in terms of intensity. Winds have increased to 70 mph now, but it is getting closer to land. Sadly, at least one death has already been attributed to Gordon (in Miami). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:43, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'll be very honest: at this point, I hope Gordon manages to close the gap between its current intensity and hurricane status. The impacts of a 60-kt TS and a 65-kt hurricane are scarcely different. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:30, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon now up to 70/1000 however, I doubt it will have time to become a hurricane.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:32, September 04, 2018 (UTC)

Gordon is making landfall as we speak. I haven’t been on much, because I’m getting personally affected. A tornado warning was just issued not that far from me about 25 minutes ago, and it’s been raining pretty hard. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:07, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Landfall official. Near the AL/MS border. 70 mph/997 millibars. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:55, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Fun fact: unless Gordon is upgraded in reanalysis, this will be the first incarnation of Gordon to not reach hurricane intensity, as all of his previous 4 incarnations since he replaced Gilbert became hurricanes. Ryan1000 04:19, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now at 40 mph/1002 mb. Gordon is on his way out.  Send Help Please (talk) 10:53, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gordon
He is dying now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:45, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories now. Unfortunately, so far this storm killed 2 people. Let's hope the damages and deaths do not rise in the coming days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Gordon’s sustained winds as of the latest advisory are 10 mph. Those have got to be the lowest sustained winds I’ve ever seen in a tropical system. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:14, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still at 10/1014. I've never seen a depression with 10 mph.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     22:10, September 06, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's probably not even an actual tropical depression anymore. They just keep issuing advisories as long as it remains a flood threat. I never saw a 10 mph reading either, and I would be shocked if an actual tropical cyclone can actually get this weak. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:53, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gordon
Gone for good now. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     03:36, September 08, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally. That took a while. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon 's reaction to this year's Atlantic incarnation being (operationally) the first not to reach hurricane strength, watching as Florence, Helene, and Isaac all become hurricanes: --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:07, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SE behind Florence
Another wave behind Florence, currently at 0/20. The Atlantic may have awaken. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:45, September 02, 2018 (UTC)
 * This wave may be of greater concern down the road, with the current forecast bringing it due west and farther south than Florence. Assuming PTC 7 becomes Gordon, this storm (Helene-to-be) may be a threat to the Caribbean or U.S. east coast in the long run. Ryan1000 21:31, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic is waking up it seems. About time! This AOI I'm concerned about. If it heads on a more southern trajectory, we could be dealing with an east coast or even Lesser Antilles threat in the very long term (unless it recurves like a classic non-threatening Cape-Verde type hurricane). I've always had an eerie feeling about the name "Helene" this season, and in the betting pools I forecasted a record-powerful system. This could be one to really watch out for. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:16, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also have an eerie feeling of the name "Helene" since January. Models, including GFS and Euro, shows a hurricane (not sure if its Florence or this AOI) coming near the US East Coast). Anyways, this is up to 0/30.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     16:04, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well at 2 pm advisory, this wave at 10/40 now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:54, September 03, 2018 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
And now we have Invest 92L. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:19, September 03, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/50.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * Here comes a potentially formidable Helene... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:44, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Helene may become a formidable one this year after all. Still 10/50, but with plenty of ocean ahead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:44, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/70! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:53, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Helene is definitely coming from this one. The track reminds me of Irma and Maria from last year though. This isn't looking good for the ravaged Caribbean islands. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:36, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * This might actually follow near the footsteps of Flo down the road and turn northeastward out to sea. Earlier it was forecast to be a Caribbean threat, but both of the global models now take this somewhat north of the lessers, which would be good news for them after what they saw last year. Ryan1000 15:50, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hopefully those global models right now are correct. Helene is one of my favorite names in this list (aside from Florence, Rafael & Valerie), and I would not want it yet to become a retirement candidate. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:58, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it's 30/80. Please be a fishspinner... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:26, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 40/90. Here comes Helene!  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 04, 2018 (UTC)

70/90. Any time now... Ryan1000 19:59, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * I bet this will form tomorrow. I don't know if this will be a fishspinner; GFS ensembles on Tropical Tidbits track this towards the Lesser Antilles, kind of like a re-Irma. I'm begging you future Helene: do not threaten land. I still have an eerie feeling about this system... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:28, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still 70/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:32, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:36, September 06, 2018 (UTC)


 * This is taking its sweet time to develop. Now it has become a race to see who will take Helene or Isaac first. Hopefully it's this system that takes the name Helene, because this came first as an AOI and everybody posted about this system potentially becoming "Helene" instead of "Isaac". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:57, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
And the race for Helene is still on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:30, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * This looks to be a threat to the Caribbean, which saw enough activity last year. Hopefully Isaac weakens before he impacts the islands. Send Help Please  (talk) 23:09, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

This could actually become Helene first, but in any instance both of the global models currently don't do much with it once it passes the Lessers due to less-than-ideal conditions currently in the Caribbean. But it's still too soon to tell if that'll change later on, as it did with Harvey last year. Ryan1000 00:55, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Nvm, TD 8 did become Helene. Ryan1000 02:51, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Recently there's been a nice blowup over the center and I fully expect it to be classified as Isaac later today. NHC makes this a category two hurricane approaching the Lesser Antilles, which is not rainbows and unicorns. The dreaded "I" storm bears watching once again this year. Owen 05:27, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is the loser of the race! Here comes Isaac and a likely continuation of the curse. I don't like the looks of this thing... The 5-day point on the forecast is 100 mph (likely conservative IMO) and if it continues on current track, we could be dealing with an Irma/Maria repeat. This really, really needs to be watched. I might as well bring back an adage from last year. Remember, for it to make sense, the "I" in my adage means "eye". Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * According to the NHC there's supposed to be 20-25 knots of shear when future Isaac gets close to the Lesser Antilles though, so hopefully he'll weaken some before moving over the islands. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:44, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac
AL, 09, 2018090818,, BEST, 0, 145N, 363W, 35, 1005, TS

Not made official yet by NHC, but as ATCF goes NHC goes. Isaac is finally here - and the TSR forecast earlier this season of 9-4-1 is now a bust. Owen 19:20, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * And NHC makes it official. Isaac is here. Expected to peak as a Category 1, similar to his 2012 incarnation. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:49, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to become a 100 mph storm now, but weaken before striking the Antilles. The track after that is still uncertain; the global models currently and formerly over their past few runs forecast dissipation or weakening from Isaac while moving west towards Central America, but it was also in one run forecast to turn north towards the Greater ntilles down the road. We'll see. Ryan1000 05:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/997 and should be hurricane soon. This year maybe the second year in a row to have 3 active hurricanes.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:42, September 09, 2018 (UTC)

While this may be a definitely a minority opinion of models right now there are some saying this could become a major before it hits the Antilles. Can't rule out a re-Maria since we know what happened last year. This could be retirement candidate number 2 depending on how it develops. Too soon to know at the moment though. --Whiplash (talk) 20:59, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Both the GFS and Euro were aggressive with Maria though (not as aggressive as she actually became, but still aggressive nonetheless). Not so with Isaac. The HWRF (the best intensity model for forecasting most of the super-strong hurricanes last year) forecasts a 3 down the road with Isaac, but hopefully not before hitting the Lessers. However, if Isaac turns northward down the road when he reaches the western Caribbean, this could intensify more by then and/or be a potential GOM threat. Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Isaac
Getting a bit hurricane drunk...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:23, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Um...Isaac's still a TS on NHC as I type this...Ryan1000 01:41, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * ATCF.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:28, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Now confirmed by NHC. This makes 2018 the second consecutive year with three simultaneous hurricanes on the same day (a first), and the first time since 2005 in which 3 simultaneous hurricanes were active in the open Atlantic Ocean on the same day, as 2017 and 2010 each had their "K" storm (Katia and Karl, respectively) in the BoC. I believe 2005 had Maria, Nate, and Ophelia on September 8. Ryan1000 03:00, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's really fitting for this to occur right on the historical peak of the season (September 10). It could continue to intensify and potentially reach major hurricane status before weakening. The Lesser Antilles may be pounded by this. However, if it survives through the Caribbean, we could be dealing with another monster in the very long run. Stay tuned... Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:45, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac (2nd time)
Down to a TS, but expected to be a hurricane again. ~ Roy25    Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     03:14, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * A bit surprised to see this fall below hurricane strength already, but it should re-intensify a bit before weakening again by Thursday. NHC no longer shows much intensification - only up 5 mph to 75 mph and that's it. I certainly won't be surprised though if Isaac can get stronger than that before Thursday. Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:20, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Watches issued for Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Dominica; Tropical Storm Watches issued for Antigua and Montserrat. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:18, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

No longer expected to become a hurricane, but still a threat to the Lessers. Kinda reminds me of Erika (I do not hope for a déjà vu here). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:06, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Unlike Erika, this already became a hurricane at one point. Let's hope the Windward Islands make it through okay. However, it's going to strike regions that were devastated by Maria last year (like Dominica), and this may worsen recovery efforts. Or worse... this could be a re-Erika in terms of devastation (hope not). Expected to dissipate by the end of the forecast, but I'll keep the adage in case this is destructive for the Windwards. Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:25, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Isaac had to deal with some wind shear lately (partly because of Florence's outflow) and his small size like Beryl earlier this year makes him susceptible to even slight changes in the environment. However, if conditions for development improve when Isaac reaches the western Caribbean southwest of Cuba, he could reorganize by then or in the GOM when he turns northwest, so just because the windwards aren't likely to get too much from this doesn't mean Isaac is out just yet. But it would still take a lot of work for Isaac to recover from where he is right now. Ryan1000 02:49, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging off the coast of Africa
Another AOI forecast to emerge out of Africa in a few days, currently at 0/20. The Atlantic is really waking up. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 04, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30. A Cape Verde-type Isaac, anyone? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:38, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/40 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:27, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope Isaac will be a fishspinning Cape-Verde type hurricane. The Atlantic is wide awake now! Please don't threaten land in the distant long run though... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:30, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

0/50. All 3 major Northern Hemisphere basins are currentlt conveyor belts now. WPac has 3 invests (or actually, 2 invests and 1 TD as JMA considers 98W as a TD already), the Atlantic has 2 systems, 1 invest & 1 AOI, and the EPac (including CPac) has 2 storms and 1 invest. We are really at the peak of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:53, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * (And CPac naming list remains unused since Ulika 2016.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:31, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 20/60, plus another wave could be coming off of Africa behind this one. Ryan1000 18:53, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Now an invest, and STWO out a couple of minutes ago, and this jumped to 50/80. Here comes Isaac! ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:37, September 06, 2018 (UTC)
 * Or maybe even Helene. Depending on 92L's pace (in terms of formation), 93L can either become Helene or Isaac at this point. While 92L is forecast to move westward, 93L is expected to curve to the northeast in the long run. This has a higher chance of becoming a fishspinner compared to 92L. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:50, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Went up to 70/90. Now its a race between 92L and 93L, winner gets Helene, looser gets Isaac. Who will win?  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:08, September 07, 2018 (UTC)


 * Woah, that percentage really jumped since yesterday. If it continues organizing at current pace, we might see it beat the system in front to "Helene". With all that ocean up ahead, this looks very ominous in the long run, but this is more likely than 92L to be a fishspinner. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:00, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

80/90. 92L is 90/90, but I think 93L will become 08L first. Not sure about Helene yet though, but if 92L develops slower than 93L and becomes Isaac, I think it would be safe to say that the "I" curse will live on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:10, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it is 90/90. Looks better than 92L too. Cape Verde needs to prepare for the rains. Also, I saw one tweet that has a GIF which puts Florence near (or even over) Bermuda later on, with 92L fizzling while 93L looking like a major. Isaac may have to wait if 92L won't develop. I personally think it won't happen, but that simulation on Twitter is interesting nonetheless. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:16, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
Whoops. Helene may be coming from this one after all. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still a PTC according to the latest advisory. May become Isaac though, as 92L finally became TD 9. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:32, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Now a tropical depression, upgraded the same time as TD 09. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:00, September 07, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Helene
Upgraded to TS Helene. 40 mph and 1002 mbars as of the latest advisory. Ryan1000 02:51, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, instead of an edit conflict, my post got removed and replaced with Ryan's post. Anyways, Helene should be a fish hurricane.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:55, September 08, 2018 (UTC)


 * Not so much of a fish, unfortunately, since she's passing by the Cape Verde Islands. But impacts there shouldn't be too severe. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:11, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * But after Cape Verde, it probably won't affect any land at all. Hopefully this becomes something amazing intensity-wise. NHC forecast only takes it to 75 mph, but considering all the surprises we've been seeing... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:35, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Helene
Now a hurricane with 75 mph and 992 mbars. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     20:41, September 09, 2018 (UTC)
 * Could get a little stronger as it heads north and eventually out to sea. Ryan1000 23:46, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Up slightly to 85/984. Ryan1000 03:00, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * This might still become a major, and hopefully it does become one because it'll be a fishspinner. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:47, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

105/974 per 11AM advisory. Could become a major soon. Ryan1000 14:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now up to 110 mph/968 mb. Just another 5 mph upgrade and it's a major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:22, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * 12z ATCF keeps the winds steady at 95 kts but downs the pressure slightly to 966 mbar... 🎶Come on Helene!🎵 --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:39, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 90 knots. Helene is turning out to be Fabio and John's Atlantic sister... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:50, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Fabio and John were hyped up from the very beginning, and both storms were forecast to become Category 4s. The NHC didn't forecast Helene to become a major hurricane until it hit 90 kts, and Helene's forecast peak never went above 100 kts. Disappointing, yes, but not as much so as Fabio or John. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:35, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Helene had to be a 110 mph failicia... *sigh* I was hoping for a major. Disappointing almost like John and Fabio. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:28, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 80 mph, should be a TS soon and might also interact with Joyce. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:45, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
New invest according to Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:33, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now on the NHC at 10/20. I have doubts this will affect Florence's future track tbh.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:59, September 07, 2018 (UTC)

Waste of an invest. Honestly I think Flo will absorb it when she moves towards it over the next few days. Ryan1000 00:55, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, kind of like how John ate Ileana in the EPac, except in this case there's only one TC here. Down to 10/10, and won't become anything at all. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:37, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:56, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Several hundred miles WSW of the Azores
The NHC forecasts a disturbance may form in this location, currently at 0/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:34, September 08, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30. Will we see another subtropical system here? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:51, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

0/40. The Atlantic is really heating up. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:55, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yep, the Atlantic is on fire! If this develops, this will probably either be a Debby/Ernesto repeat or a Michael '12 repeat. The race for Joyce is already on with this AOI vs. the western Caribbean system. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/50.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     19:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 20/50.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     18:02, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * 30/50, and this will most likely be Kirk unless it pulls a surprise on us. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:34, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Finally made into an invest; 40/50 as of the moment. Forecast to move towards the British Isles and Europe later on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:46, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Suddenly jumped to 90/90. Wow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:07, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Tropical Tidbits is calling this SS Joyce. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:43, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Weather Channel is calling this Joyce as well. Now we wait for the NHC to make it official. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:37, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Joyce
And NHC makes it official. 1006 mbars, 45 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:40, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * And here we have Debby 3.0. Send Help Please  (talk) 20:44, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

This September has been nuts. Joyce is expected to become tropical and peak at 60 mph. - VileMaster (talk) 20:44, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * With the formation of Joyce, 2018 marks the first time since 2008 to have 4 named storms simultaneously. If 95L manages to get the name Kirk while Isaac doesn't degenerate to a post-tropical storm, then 2018 maybe the first season to have 5 named storms simultaneously. Joyce also makes 2018 to have 5 subtropical storms in a single season. Idk if that happened before.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:09, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

I believe that would be a record, but in 1974 all 4 of that season's storms peaked as subtropical storms. In this year, only Alberto lived entirely subtropical, while the other 4 storms (Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, and now (potentially) Joyce) were tropical at some other point instead. Ryan1000 02:44, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * I can't believe we have the 5th subtropical storm this season! Must be a record to be honest. Plus, the Atlantic is absolutely crazy right now! Four active storms at the same time is something I never would have expected out of this year. Anyway, Joyce might have a better chance at becoming a hurricane than Debby or Ernesto. Or even it pulls a Michael '12 but I doubt it. Joyce could also interact with Helene soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Over NW Caribbean Sea
Another one. The Atlantic is busy now (after all, we are at the peak of the season). This disturbance at 0/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:03, September 09, 2018 (UTC)


 * Where did this come from? Why is this a thing? Is this a threat? Models don't seem to be picking up on this much at all? If this becomes a tropical storm and hits Texas it could be bad as Texas is already hugely oversaturated flash floods killed 3 in the state earlier today... --Whiplash (talk) 20:57, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0/30. Has an outside chance to become TS Joyce before hitting Texas, but it won't be anywhere near a re-Harvey for the state. Flo is the main threat at the moment. Ryan1000 23:46, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Or even Kirk if the system southwest of the Azores develops first. This one probably won't get too strong IMO, and hopefully it's nothing bad in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:53, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Now an invest, and has been upped to 30/50. ~ Roy25    Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     19:18, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/60.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     03:15, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * While Florence is lurking, we have another threat to the United States. This one, though, shouldn't be nearly as strong. Texans should monitor this system (possible Joyce). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:25, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * 50/70 now, and this maybe Joyce/Kirk (this will probably get Joyce first).  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     18:01, September 11, 2018 (UTC)



Geez, we may get 5 active systems in the Atlantic if these invests become tropical cyclones at the same time Florence, Helene, and Isaac are still active. Has that ever happened before? Anyway, this is most likely going to be Joyce unless the one SW of the Azores explodes. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:32, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 60/60. We may see a TD from this, not sure about Joyce yet though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:51, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Code red again, 70/70. Race for Joyce is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:09, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

This will be Kirk if it forms, as Joyce is forming from 96L as we speak. This will likely be another TC in the crazy September of 2018. - VileMaster (talk) 20:26, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Should this system form, we will have 5 tropical cyclones active at one time in the Atlantic. Has that even happened before? Send Help Please  (talk) 20:54, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * In 1995, it did. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:25, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * True, but as Roy said, we've never see 5 named storms at once, since Luis was still a depression while the others were active. Send Help Please  (talk) 01:55, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm kinda losing hope for this invest, but it could still become a TD before reaching Texas. It doesn't really look like much on satellite atm. "Kirk" must not go to this likely fail. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: E behind Florence
0/20. This disturbance at the south of (and within) Bermuda is expected to have some gradual development in the next few days. The Atlantic is on fire too, just like WPac and EPac. Has this happened before? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:50, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Idk, but the tropics are really going crazy atm! If this develops, it will likely be Kirk because the GOM invest doesn't have much time anymore. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:56, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
I added this section, as we are already well into the season despite the fact that only 3 storms have formed so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's Atlantic retirement forecast

 * Alberto - 5% - Caused disruption, but nothing significant really.
 * Beryl - 5% - A spectacle, regenerated a la Harvey, scared Maria-battered Puerto Rico, yet only inflicted minimal damage.
 * Chris - 2% - 2% for being a Category 2 in the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic, but other than that... nothing notable.
 * Debby - 0. 1% - Yeah, I gave that .1 for forming in cool waters. But no, Debby will definitely return in 2024.
 * Ernesto - 1% - Debby 2.0. I only gave that one percent due to the fact that Ernesto was a bit stronger than Debby.
 * Florence - TBD - Forecast to become a fishspinner, but I still have to wait and see.

That's all for now.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:09, September 2, 2018 (UTC).

joestar's retirement home
yare yare daze (talk) 17:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * alby (5%) : "lolololol florida i'm gonna destroy you like irma" -was a subtropical storm-
 * bez (2%) : "weeeeeee i'm a baby hurricane i am gonna weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"
 * chris (0%) : "look at me i can pull stunts like the chris-tal ball in 2014 and i can be better than him haha"
 * debby (-420%) : hell naw
 * anesuto (clannad%) : i didn't feel anything from this f-cker as he went past the uk LOL!

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - Just >$125 million in damage and 12 deaths should not convince the U.S. to give Alberto the boot. This is nothing compared to very bad storms America experienced in the past, such as Harvey or Katrina. Usually, retirements in the U.S. have a damage bill of at least $1 billion.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Some credit given for its pre-season formation. However, the fact that it remained subtropical for almost its whole life (through peak intensity and landfall) prevents the grade from being higher than this.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Beryl :
 * Retirement: 3% - The relatively light impacts it caused were in-between lives as a remnant low. The regions it impacted have seen much worse last year. Even the hardest-hit regions (like the Dominican Republic) have seen much worse in the past.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - The grade is boosted for its rapid intensification in the MDR so early in the year, and for being the first "Hurricane Beryl" ever. As a bonus, it briefly regenerated east of the East Coast. However, its small size meant it had potential to get even stronger in the MDR.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris :
 * Retirement: 1% - It did cause a death due to rough seas and impacted Canada as an extratropical system. That isn't enough to even think about retirement though.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - Did a nice job at the C2 part.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby :
 * Retirement: 0% - Completely out to sea.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Stole a name off the list, but I have to say it performed better than I expected (by reaching 50 mph).


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto :
 * Retirement: 0% - I believe the only impacts it ever caused were in the UK and Ireland as a post-tropical system. It was a complete fishspinner while tropical. That certainly won't ever earn it retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Although it was weaker than Debby, it stayed tropical unusually far north.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Florence :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gordon :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">5% - So far, it killed 2 people which is much less than Alberto. Damages are still unreleased, but hopefully it wasn't too severe.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Became a strong tropical storm, near hurricane strength. The fact that it peaked just under hurricane strength isn't a big deal considering how it was threatening the Gulf Coast.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Helene :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Isaac :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Joyce :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:20, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 05:58, September 13, 2018 (UTC))

TG's Retirement Predictions
Welcome to my fourth annual retirement prediction, the first year that I have dropped the colors since 2015. This year I will just make it simple and easy, without it taking 5 minutes to get the right color for each storm.


 * Alberto - 10%: 10% might be a little too high, but Alberto is definitely not worthy of retirement.
 * Beryl - 0%: I seriously think this storm is overrated, to be honest. It didn't do much, and it was a classic weak MDR cyclone that occasionally happen on the edge of the MDR.
 * Chris - 1%: Chris killed one person, unfortunately, but it won't be enough for a retirement. Classic subtropics hurricane. T  G  2 0 1 8 17:00, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Adding mine too. Color scheme is up for the second straight year.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Alberto – grade  A , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Early surprise to maintain a 4-year streak of preseason storms. Bonus points for transitioning to a tropical cyclone inland and surviving as far north as Michigan. Retirement is unlikely, however.
 * Beryl – grade  A , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Cute little midget MDR hurricane. Even managed to hang on and have a second stint as a subtropical storm. Simply amazing.
 * Chris – grade  C , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Decent fish, unfortunately one death.
 * Debby – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . "Debby" shouldn't have gone to this name thief.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 10:07, August 10, 2018 (UTC).

Roy's Retirement Prediction
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto ( 17% ) - A pre-season storm that continued the streak of years with pre-season storms, and transitioned to a tropical cyclone over Tennessee and made it as far as Michigan. It did some millions of damage and a couple of deaths, but the US won't retire this name
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Beryl ( 0.001% ) - A small hurricane in the MDR that became the first ever Hurricane Beryl. This won't be retired, but a little bit greater than 0% due to its effect on land while post-tropical
 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris ( 1% ) - A C2 that didn't really affect land other than claiming one live, but even that won't retire Chris
 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby ( 0% ) - Weak storm that stayed out to sea
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto ( 0% ) - Same as Debby, but did stay tropical really far north
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Florence (???) - Currently active
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gordon ( 1% ) - A relatively quick storm that almost became a hurricane, but only caused 2 deaths as of now.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Helene (???) - Currently active
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Isaac (???) - Currently active

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:49, August 08, 2018 (UTC) Last updated on 16:37, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Lee’s retirements
We’ve had only 4 systems, but it is August, so I might as well start this. Leeboy100 Hello!! 03:54, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto- 10%: Caused 12 deaths, and some impacts, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
 * Beryl- 2%: First ever Hurricane Beryl, and it came in the form of a cute little mini-hurricane. Did cause flash flooding in Puerto Rico and other areas recovering from Irma and Maria from last year, but thankfully wasn’t too bad and caused no fatalities.
 * Chris- 3%: Did cause some impacts in Newfoundland, and unfortunately one death. Not enough for retirement though.
 * Debby- 0%: Nope.
 * Ernesto- 0%: Ditto.
 * Florence- TBA%: Currently active, but things aren’t looking good.
 * Gordon- 5%: 3 deaths and quite a bit of flooding, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
 * Helene- Currently Active
 * Isaac- Currently Active
 * Joyce- Currently Active

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Grade colors:  S ,  A+ ,  A ,  A- ,  B ,  C ,  D ,  E ,  F ,  Failippe 


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto : Grade:  C  - Retirement: 10% - Neat little pre-season surprise that went tropical inland and continued the pre-season storm streak that has been going since 2015. Gets 10% for around $125 million in damage and 12 total deaths.
 * <font color="#fffcc">Beryl : Grade:  A  - Retirement: 1% - We finally got a Hurricane Beryl, in the form of an adorable little mini-cane that (mostly) spared the areas that had been mauled last season. Bonus points for surprise regen though it was short lived.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris : Grade:  B  - Retirement: 2% - Gert 2.0
 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby : Grade:  F  - Retirement: lol no % - Nothing too notable about this one, although it did manage to get to 50 mph.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto : Grade:  E  - Retirement: 0% - Basically Debby 2.0, but gains points for resilience.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Florence : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active and looking to be a real monster.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gordon : Grade:  E  - Retirement: 5% - Almost reached hurricane status, but hit land before he could. Impacts were not that bad aside from the two deaths, which is why I'm giving him a lower retirement chance than Alberto.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Helene : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Isaac : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Joyce : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.

Will be added on to as needed. Send Help Please (talk) 08:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

IbAHAn1829tree's Name Retirement Chances
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:01, August 15, 2018 (UTC) Updated September 12, 2018.
 * Tropical Storm Alberto - 0.5% : Became tropical over land, caused some damage and, sadly, deaths.
 * Category 1 Beryl - 0% : First HURRICANE Beryl ever, did nothing.
 * Category 2 Chris - 0.01 % : Did nothing but take the life of 1, sadly.
 * Tropical Storm Debby - 0% : A fail, but at least it became a named storm.
 * Tropical Storm Ernesto - 0% : Another fail, the Atlantic storms this year seem to like the water up north for some reason.
 * Category 4 Florence - Greater than 0% : This name might actually be gone, as there is 20+ inches of rain expected in North Carolina.
 * Tropical Storm Gordon - 0.5% : Did some things to the gulf coast, sadly taking the lives of two.
 * Category 2 Helene - 0% : Almost became a major hurricane and is forecast to affect the Azores Islands.
 * Category 1 Isaac - Greater than 0% : Weak hurricane that'll do stuff to the Caribbean islands.
 * Subtropical Storm Joyce - 0% : Is forecast to affect the Azores Islands.
 * Possible TS Kirk - 0% : Will cause rain in Texas.

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions
Never thought this year's AHS would kick up as fast as it did...looks like we might even see near-record numbers if this doesn't quit. For now, though: Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 10% - Made 2018 the fourth consecutive AHS to start early, and was the second consecutive incarnation of Alberto to do so as well. But with 125 million in damage and 12 deaths, I have to give him some credit for impact.
 * Beryl - 1% - Defied expectations and become a tiny hurricane in the open Atlantic and came back later on as a subtropical storm, but Bery's effects on land were minimal at most.
 * Chris - 1% - Killed a person from rip currents and caused some minor damage in Newfoundland. Nothing too much.
 * Debby - 0% - Fail.
 * Ernesto - 0% - Debby 2.0.
 * Florence - >75% - Pre-emptive projection, but Flo is expected to be a very formidable major/C2 hurricane striking southern North Carolina near Wilmington later this week...if that happens, our last original "F" name since 1979 may be gone for good after this year.
 * Gordon - >5% - Killed at least 2 people and caused some damage on the gulf coast, with some inland flooding. This percent may go up or down later on depending on how bad overall impacts were.
 * Helene - 2% - Precursor wave killed 3 people, with some minor effects in Cape Verde and Helene may affect the Azores down the road too, but it probably won't be enough for retirement when all is said and done.
 * Isaac - ?? - Still active, but currently forecast to head into the Lessers as a strong TS.
 * Joyce - ?? - Still active, but likely to head out to sea, or hit an island or two in the Azores.

Retirement predictions from Nut
Not a regular user here, but since we're well into the peak of the season and the fact that the Atlantic has shot up in activity, I'll do my retirements. Nutfield001 (talk) 16:32, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 15% - A pre-season storm (fourth consecutive one) that only did minor damage in the Gulf Coast. Impressed that the Atlantic can crank up another pre-season storm. The Atlantic will fail after 2018.
 * Beryl - 1% - Can't imagine retirement as impacts were negligible. Its intensification to a hurricane was impressive given cool waters in the MDR and it also defied initial forecasts.
 * Chris - 2.5% - Minimal impacts overall which killed a person thanks to its rip currents.
 * Debby - 0% - An unusual storm that formed far north, a borderline fail but not exactly a fail due to its formation location.
 * Ernesto - 1% - Unlike others, I'm not calling this a fail as it stayed tropical unusually far north. Minimal damages (if any) equal no retirement unless the Daily Express gets its hands on the retirement system.
 * Florence - TBC - First major hurricane of the season which is currently posing a major threat to the Carolinas. Retirement percentage will be released once the storm dissipates.
 * Gordon - 5% - Near hurricane that hit land before it had to chance to become one. I kinda wish it became a hurricane, maybe it'll receive the Cindy 2005 treatment post-analysis. But then again, why would I wish hurricane intensity over a storm that poses a minor threat to land.
 * Helene - TBC - Currently an active near-major hurricane. She will most likely remain at sea after leaving minor effects in Cape Verde.
 * Isaac - TBC - Forecast to pass through the Lessers as a hurricane, but let's hope impacts are minor (it probably will be) as Maria 2017 was bad enough for Dominica.

Female "F" names (Potentially for Florence)
This is a bit early, but since Florence is currently undergoing rapid intensification and is expected to directly hit Wilmington, NC as an extremely powerful 140 mph category 4 monster, it's safe to say the last original "F" name since 1979 will probably be this season's first retirement candidate. If that happens, what do you think will replace her? Here are some suggestions: These are some names that come to mind. Any other suggestions? Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Faith
 * Fern
 * Fatima
 * Farrah
 * Frieda
 * Fannie
 * Fanya
 * Florita


 * Personally Farrah would be my favourite name to replace Florence but I do feel like Faith and Fern should be used first since they have been used previously. If I were to suggest other names they would be:


 * Fallon
 * Francesca
 * Francine
 * Fleur
 * Freya

--Whiplash (talk) 19:31, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Frida/Frieda/Freda is my favorite to replace Florence (kinda like Fred, but since Julia/Julian exist here, I think it would be a good option). Federica, Farrah and Freya are also okay with me. Fanny, Fleur, Francine and Fern are also great. Other options may be Fiore, Flavia, Filomena, Felina and Fergie (although that may remind people either of the former duchess, the former football manager or the singer/rapper). But if they are gonna apply what they did to Katrina and Rita, I think Flo would be the front runner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:06, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

The government of France requested Frances to be removed in the RA IV hurricane committee after 2004 (but Frances was destructive enough on its own merit), so names similar to Frances, like Francine, Francesca, ect probably won't be picked, if France makes another request like they did for Frances. Ryan1000 20:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here are some more

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:56, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Fergie
 * Fortuna
 * Fairy
 * Fina
 * Felicita