Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season/Matthew

AOI: Eastern Atlantic
On the TWO at 0/20 in the eastern Atlantic. Could develop into Matthew next week near the Lesser Antilles. This AOI has potential, as both GFS and EURO show it as a hurricane in the Caribbean in the long range. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 19:58, September 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * I have a very bad feeling about this storm. I just feel something inside me saying that this is gonna be a bad storm in the future. T  G  22:28, September 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with you here TG, this is the wave the GFS has been developing around the start of October in the Caribbean, and they make it something big by that time. The question is where it'll go after that, the last few runs have taken this anywhere from the western Caribbean turning into Central America, north towards the GOM and the US, or even north to Hispaniola, PR, Cuba, and eventually Bermuda. Either way this could definitely be the first seriously major storm of the season. It definitely bears watching down the road. Ryan1000 05:04, September 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * This storm is creeping me. Most models are agreeing in an Ivan kind of track at first in EastCarib. Where it goes later is the issue as the coming of the trough will be critical.. Wether it comes fast or takes its times will determine were it goes. The gfs is showing a cat 5 landfall in Texas/Louisiana. I know its 10 days but now all 4 major models are onboard with this system. This system use the rocket fuel in the Wcarib that was left untouch by the other systems. This might be the major we were hoping and dreading. I hope I am wrong though because for sure models are not showing a fish with this one. From Canada to Nicaragua, to Venezuela need to start checking this AOI. Allanjeffs 05:38, September 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's very unusual to see an Atlantic storm take an Ivan-like track west-northwest through the Caribbean in late September or October in the season (one such example being Inez of 1966), I fear this may not develop until it reaches the western Caribbean, which scares me the most since, as you mentioned Allan, the western Caribbean has the warmest waters anywhere in the Atlantic right now, and it's just waiting for a storm to move over there and explode. I don't have a good feeling about what could happen there in October, if it's not from this system there could be one at any time later in October or even November. Ryan1000 12:14, September 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * This storm is looking creepy in the long run. Models like the GFS are taking this one into the Caribbean as a strengthening cyclone. I don't have a good feeling about to-be Matthew; the waters in the western Caribbean are the scariest part and this storm could easily enter there and explode into a catastrophic monster. This is one we really have to watch for. It's still at 0/20, BTW. From now until November, we will really have to watch the western Caribbean for any potential monsters that could easily explode in the warm water haven. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  01:43, September 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * If the conditions are right, I think that it's very likely that according to models like the GFS, we could have our first Category 5 in the basin since 2007 with this system. Who knows what the waters in the western Caribbean could support, probably could support another Wilma. It may be a major threat to the United States down the road, this could be the October surprise for this season. I know this may be unrelated but it's worth noting if it's bad enough in the United States like the GFS is depicting, future Matthew could sway the elections here too, considering how bad Sandy was in 2012 (the last presidential election), which was considered the October surprise that season and was seen as swaying the election. Regardless, this is something to monitor. Owen 02:12, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS is flopping around with this system. Two days ago it showed a landfall on the US East Coast, yesterday it showed landfall in Texas, and now it shows a landfall near Florida's Big Bend area. The only consistent thing is that it makes this a Category 5 hurricane at landfall. On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a rapidly intensifying hurricane in 240 hours. This is likely to be our first Category 5 since 2007, unless ERCs mess around with it. Anyway, it's now up to 0/30. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:08, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 10/50. T  G  14:45, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * According to some pictures i've seen recently from goes, the wind shear in this basin has been unparalleled recently. There's even wind shear in the west Caribbean. If future-Matthew wants to reach major hurricane status, the wind shear over there needs to calm down. Otherwise, this storm could be a category 1 at the strongest... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 17:15, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * Shear will be almost non existant when it reach the Caribbean. Those shear maps are not always trustworthy, they were showing low shear for Karl and look how it pan out. Models are unanimous in showing a major in the Caribbean. Track is now changing from Honduras/Nicaragua to Jamaica and Cayman Islands. The stronger it get and the faster it develops the more north it will move. Even Eric Blake is becoming interested in this system base on twitter comments. This could be the major many were expecting ,its track resembles Ivan during the first part. Where it goes after Caymans Islands is the uncertainty. It also have a combination of Felix in the first part and Dean in the second. Interesting two weeks ahead.Allanjeffs 20:37, September 24, 2016 (UTC)

Now 10/70. I'm starting to have a bad feeling on this system. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:16, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Based on this, not only will this be the first Category 5 since 2007, the pressure could be 898 mbar. If that verifies, which would be pretty scary, it would be the strongest in the basin since Wilma in 2005. We have to see what happens though, I do think that if the conditions are right we have a chance to see a Category 5. However, future Matthew has to deal with trying to move a bit more north before crashing into South America which would probably rule out development altogether. Owen 05:05, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Had some stuff to do lately, but anyways this is now invest'd and is up to 80% for 5 days. Both the GFS and Euro make this a formidable major hurricane in the western Caribbean, but the track over the past few runs has been shifting anywhere from Jamaica and the Caymans to the western tip of Cuba, and a gulf coast landfall anywhere from Galveston to Tampa, all while a formidable storm. Matthew-to be is looking to be a very dangerous, Ivan-like storm for the Caribbean and the U.S. and it bears serious attention. If the current or past few runs of the GFS are correct, we won't be going another year without a U.S. landfalling major hurricane. Ryan1000 06:56, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * The current GFS run takes future Matthew to landfall on Jamaica, Cuba and Florida all as a major hurricane, before raking the East Coast like Hermine. Whereas the ECMWF takes this into South America, then recurves it northward to slam the Dominican Republic and Haiti before moving out to sea. Apparently future Matthew is still having trouble deciding where to go, but it's probably set on becoming a major. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:55, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * According to the latest gfs, Matthew os predicted to peak as a 115 mph category 3 before rapidly weakening into a category 1 before hitting Cuba. After this, it hits Florida as either a weak category 1 or a strong tropical storm. If this kind of a trend continues, then Matthew might not reach major hurricane intensity at all... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:58, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * I don't know what you are seeing, but that is definitely not true. All we know is that the conditions are very good for a C5 hurricane. By the time Matthew hits the Carribean, it will hit very warm waters and extremely low wind shear. It is looking likely that we'll see our first C5 in nine years. The GFS has been showing a major hurricane landfall in the United States in all of the runs, minus two of them that showed a major hurricane hitting Mexico. T  G  16:38, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 30/90 now. Here comes Matthew, and this could very well end up being the storm of the year. It will be interesting to see whether Matthew-to-be recurves out to sea or continues into the northwest Caribbean. In order for Matthew to become a category 5, it will likely have to reach the western Caribbean. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 17:36, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Cat 5 is probably too far up, but cat 3-4 is almost a certainty when it reaches the western Caribbean. The latest run of the GFS and Euro takes the trough coming towards the east coast far enough south to pull Matthew-to be north into Hispaniola before it reaches Cuba and Florida and out to sea, but unless Matthew-to be intensifies fairly fast while it's in the eastern or central Caribbean, the trough probably won't be able to get a grip on the storm and pull it north, it'll likely be pulled farther north when it eventually intensifies rapidly in the northwestern Caribbean. Ryan1000 18:07, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am giving this thing at least a 25% chance of becoming a C5 during its lifetime. The western Caribbean contains a haven of favorable conditions that could easily allow rapid and dangerous strengthening. The track seems a little unpredictable in the long run however, so it might even not become our first Cat. 5 in nine years if it meanders out to sea or do something else. Everywhere from Mexico, to the Gulf Coast, and the East Coast seems to be in 97L's threat zone. The invest scares me. Future Matthew could be a devastating storm in the long run. I hope that isn't the case. :( ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:47, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * The last few runs of the global models are really persistent on that trough pulling Matthew-to be north and into Hispaniola as a major hurricane when it reaches the central Caribbean. While that would be good news for the U.S, a major hurricane hitting Haiti (GFS) or the DR (Euro) would still be very bad, especially in loss of life. Ryan1000 03:28, September 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * Currently at 60/90, and could be a TS by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Current ECMWF run shows something interesting as it recurves future Matthew between Haiti and Cuba, before shunting it west-northwestwards towards Florida. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:31, September 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is now at 80/90, and recon is scheduled to investigate this thing tomorrow. Wouldn't surprise me if it becomes Matthew by then. Ryan1000 03:03, September 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * 90/90, and the NHC has noted potential for this to immediately become Matthew. More info will be available when recon arrives in the afternoon (going by EDT). ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:06, September 27, 2016 (UTC)

GFS's latest run gives 97L a Sandy-like track, with Haiti and Cuba landfalls.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  22:50, September 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * The Euro, on the other hand, takes this into Jamaica, then Cuba, then into Miami as a 938 mbar category 4 storm. Neither scenario is good in the long term. Recon failed to find a closed LLC last afternoon, so it's not Matthew yet, but I'm fairly certain it will be tomorrow. Ryan1000 03:16, September 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Already have winds at 60mph but still no closed low. It might become a 65 to 70mph before it develop an closed low level center. Even Dr. Masters says this is impressive. Someone is probably going to be hit hard by this and I hope they are prepare, as all models are unanimous in showing doom solution for someone. Allanjeff 14:22, September 28, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Matthew
"NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:50, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * First forecast/advisory is out. 1008 mbar, winds already at 50 kts immediately upon formation, Tropical Storm Warning in effect from Guadeloupe southward to the Grenadines, forecast to reach 90 kts just southeast of Jamaica by the end of the forecast period. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:57, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Apparently has already dissipated according to ATCF????? AL, 14, 2016092818,, BEST, 0, 137N, 613W, 50, 1008, DB, 50, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 80, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MATTHEW, M, 12, NEQ, 180, 90, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, DISSIPATED, al142016 to al972016, TRANSITIONED, alC72016 to al142016, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:16, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * ATCF still has Matthew as a disturbance for 18Z, but the NHC maintained advisories and stated in the latest discussion that Matthew's circulation has become better defined. I'm gonna assume that the "DB" was an accident and should be a "TS" instead. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:53, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah...this isn't dissipating anytime soon. It has some shear to deal with, but it's a big TS (205 miles of TS force winds, albeit displaced a bit to the NE) and can survive the shear for now. NHC expects the turn north in the central/western Caribbean to happen, but not until it passes west of Hispaniola into Jamaica and/or Cuba as a category 2 storm by then. But the track after that becomes a bit confusing. One possibility is the trough recurving him north outruns him and a ridge builds in and forces him west into Florida and/or the GoM, similar to Jeanne and as indicated by the Euro, but it could also turn north and hit the eastern seaboard anywhere from the Carolinas to New England like Hazel or Sandy. Best case scenario, Matthew could recurve out to sea before hitting the U.S. at all, but unfortunately that's not looking likely as of now. This will probably become something notable in the long run. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 22:06, September 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * I don't know why, but I have a very bad feeling about this storm. Maybe due to the fact that after Matthew was snubbed in 2010 (as were other names: *ahem*Agatha*ahem*) and partly due to what the name it replaced did, it started seeming like the name 'Matthew' would be used for a powerful storm. I sure hope this isn't true, but at this point, it's almost definite that it will be a hurricane by the end of the week. Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 23:02, September 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Also, this is the lowest-latitude named storm in 6 years in the Atlantic, according to The Weather Channel. Pretty interesting fact. Wasn't Igor the last one to be named this low, or am I wrong? Leeboy100 Hello! 23:07, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think that would be Tomas, which became a TS at 9.8N. Checking other low-latitude storms over the past few years and seeing how they compare to Matthew's 13.4N. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:39, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * A list of storms between Tomas and Matthew that formed south of 13.4N:
 * Katia '11, 11.0N
 * Maria '11, 11.9N
 * Ophelia '11, 12.5N
 * Philippe '11, 11.1N
 * Ernesto '12, 13.0N
 * Sandy '12, 12.7N
 * Chantal '13, 9.3N (lower than Tomas!)
 * Humberto '13, 13.3N
 * Bertha '14, 12.2N
 * Danny '15, 10.5N
 * Fred '15, 12.2N
 * Grace '15, 12.3N
 * Gaston '16 (!!), 12.6N
 * TWC must have forgotten to fact-check. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:02, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Perhaps they meant the first to form this far south this late in the season, but I don't know what "so late" would be, and even then, Sandy formed further south later in the season only 4 years ago. Regardless, the latest advisory buffs Matthew slightly to 65 mph/1004 mbars, though the forecast track hasn't changed much. Ryan1000 00:37, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 60 kts/995 mbar per the new intermediate advisory. TS Warnings lifted for the Windwards, TS Watch in effect for the ABC Islands. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:18, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Pressure up by one millibar but winds remain the same. Expected to become a hurricane in a few hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:19, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Recon found hurricane-force winds in Matthew by this advisory but they were too isolated and Matthew is under shear right now, which is why it was spared the upgrade for the time being. But not for long. According to Dr. Masters latest blog post, if Matthew takes as much advantage as it can over the Gulf of Gonave and the waters near the Bahamas, it could become a category 5 hurricane when it nears there, if not a weaker major hurricane, but the folks in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba should prepare for a storm stronger than a cat 2 since that's a very distinct possibility. Ryan1000 17:34, September 29, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Matthew
And it's here. 75 mph/993 mbars. Ryan1000 17:43, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * I love how the COC briefly popped out from under the convection, only for the convection to promptly swallow it back up, as if to say "OH NO YOU DON'T, GET BACK HERE!" --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:59, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * The Euro and GFS greatly differ on the track of Matthew after it passes north around the edge of that ridge, the Euro model members expect Matthew to curve west towards Florida or elsewhere along the east coast, and thus more likely to make landfall somewhere in the U.S, but the GFS is consistent on Matthew riding that trough north and either into or just offshore the east coast of the U.S. Regardless if the U.S. gets or doesn't get off from a direct hit from this, a large category 2 or stronger passing through Cuba, Jamaica, and brushing Haiti is gonna be big in terms of flooding and mudslides. Ryan1000 22:32, September 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * New advisory out, winds remain 75, but pressure is down to 987. And I knew I shouldn't have listened to TWC for low-latitude storms. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:58, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC still doesn't forecast a major from Matthew. But Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti really need to watch out, especially Haiti where there is great potential for extensive loss of life. Matthew seems to be taking a somewhat similar track to Tomas (2010). Unlike Tomas though, this one is stronger at this point in the Caribbean (Tomas was being shattered by wind shear in the central Caribbean), and it is a large threat to the US East Coast in the very long run. Matthew has potential to be a monster in terms of eventual devastation and deaths caused. Everyone in his path need to watch out. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  01:16, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Guys idk if it's just me but I have a weird feeling about this one. I see Matthew becoming something very notable, and it's so unpredictable how strong he can get because of the warm Caribbean waters. I'm not ruling out a Category 5. It looks like he's working out on clearing out an eye. Once that happens, anything can happen imo... Owen 04:25, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is exploding right now. Its now a cat 2 with 100mph and is expected to intensify further. RI have commence people in Jamaica, Cuba and Hispañola need to prepare as this is continues to intensify. I knew my gut feeling was right with Matthew. Since the gfs was bombing this in the Ecaribbean but everyone thought it was exaggerating as the Ecarib is consider the graveyard of the Carib . If this doesnt weaken in the upcoming days we might say bye bye to Matthew. Allanjeff 05:36, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * I knew it! I had a feeling he would RI. I forsee a Category 4/5 from Matthew. Just my gut feeling. This is not good. Owen 05:59, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh no, RI, this is not good for the Caribbean islands. Leeboy100 Hello! 09:04, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * I guess Matthew decided not to be a wimp this year and bomb in the central and west Caribbean. It was just a tropical storm in 2004 and in 2010, but that didn't happen this time. This is bad news. Seriously bad news. I didn't expect to get out of bed at 5:00 in the morning, go to the NHC website, and see a 100 mph, 979 mbar category 2! What the heck just happened, I went to bed to a 75 mph, 987 mbar C1! \(0_o)/ The NHC expects a C3/C4 from this now. If this happens, this may very well be one of the worst Caribbean hurricanes ever. I wish Jamacia, Cuba, and the Bahamas luck these next few days, as they will be bad ones... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:56, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Typically storms entrain dry air from South America in the eastern Caribbean, but that hasn't happened with Matthew, and the waters in and around Jamaica and southern Cuba are extremely warm and conducive for RI. Like Dr. Masters mentioned in his blog post, if Matthew reaches its MPI (maximum possible intensity) it could hit 175-190 miles per hour at it's peak in the NW Caribbean or Bahamas, although that's hard to achieve. Patricia did this in the record-favorable conditions south of Mexico last year, though it was fortunately a very tightly compact storm with a very small area of intense eyewall winds. Hurricane-force winds already go 45 miles out from the center of Matthew and TS winds go 185 miles out; Patricia's strongest winds only went out half that far. it wouldn't surprise me if Matthew is a major hurricane later today, and it could possibly become a cat 4 or 5 before it rakes past eastern Jamaica and Cuba. At the rate Matthew is going, he won't be back in 2022. Ryan1000 11:05, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * 90 knots now, and the pressure has dropped to 971 mb. Matthew should be a major by the end of today, and could even become a C4. Unless Matthew weakens due to shear, upwelling or ERCs, we could see catastrophic damage in Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti. Also, one fatality has already occurred in the Windward Islands. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:31, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Recon found 99 kt / ~114 mph surface winds. Category 3 now? 66.87.148.190 13:47, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * So far, NHC sees Matthew to peak at 105 kts, though that's likely a conservative estimate. Either this pulls a Sandy '12 or a Hazel '54. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:12, September 30, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Matthew
100 kts, 968 mbar and showing every other post-Sandy Caribbean storm how it's done... unfortunately. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:51, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC expects this storm to remain at 100 kts until Monday. Personally though, I think Matthew might strengthen to a high-end Category 3 or even as a Category 4, which would displace Gaston as this season's strongest (so far). Jamaica is in great danger from this storm, though the track keeps Matthew's eye off Jamaica's east coast, its eyewall is highly likely to hit the island nation. Eastern Cuba and central Bahamas are also in great threat. For now, the U.S. East Coast is unlikely to be directly affected by Matthew, though a lot can happen in 5 days.Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:31, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might even overtake Sandy in terms of intensity, it's got 29 milibars to go to beat her, and it may even go on to become a cat 4 or 5 before passing through Jamaica and Cuba. If the trough doesn't have as strong of a steering effect on Matthew and it turns north, then the U.S. east coast could still be hit by Matthew, or maybe Bermuda on its way out to sea. Either way, some of the greater antilles are in for a big storm over the next few days. There's still a lot of uncertainty after that. Ryan1000 15:41, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * For what it's worth, Matthew has 15 mbar to go to beat Sandy in the Caribbean, where the latter's minimum pressure was 954 mbar; Sandy didn't reach 940 mbar until the day it bore down on New Jersey. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:54, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Base on Recon Matthew is a medium cat 3 and continues to strength. He might easily become a cat 4 in the next couple of hours before weakening a little by dry air from SA. Cuba, Jamaica, Bahamas, Haiti and even the Usa and the Caymans need to watch out as this is easily becoming a monster. The gfs have been doing perfectly in intensity and the Euro in track. This could easily be retired if it affected the greater antilles at peak intensity or close to, there its already one dead I believe in St Lucia or St Kitts.Allanjeff 17:38, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Make that 7 millibars -- the new advisory pins Matthew at 120 mph and 960 mbars, surpassing Sandy and tying (though still 4 mbars short of) Gaston in winds, and they could easily keep rising as Matthew gradually curves towards the upper greater antilles. Allan, the 1 death was actually from a boulder fall on the island of St. Vincent, not St. Lucia or St. Kitts, but regardless, that's a mere footnote compared to what Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola are going to feel from this in a few days. Ryan1000 19:18, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Recon just measured 120 kt winds (~140 mph) as far as I know. I know a bad hurricane when I see one. Matthew might become a Category 5 soon if this trend continues. Take a look here for the data I'm finding. This is reminding me a lot about Patricia for some reason. Owen 20:11, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Category 4 now, 120 kts/949 mbar per the new advisory. Displaces Sandy as the strongest Caribbean hurricane since... Paloma, I think? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:56, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Indeed Dylan, though given Matthew's current sattelite presentation and the ever more favorable conditions it's moving over, it wouldn't surprise me if it overtakes Paloma and becomes the strongest and first cat 5 in the Caribbean since 2007. Owen, I don't think Matthew will go up to Patricia's intensity. Patricia literally could not have had a more perfect environment for explosive intensification, or a more perfect pinhole eye under intensely cold cloud tops and CDO. Matthew could easily become a cat 5, but the peak shouldn't be as strong as Patricia's. Maybe Dean's, but not Patricia's, we'd be lucky to see a hurricane get as strong as Patricia anytime soon, in either the ATL or the EPac. But still, I didn't expect Matthew to be this strong at this point, a 19 mbar pressure drop in only 6 hours is amazing, this is looking to be a very, very bad storm for the greater Antilles. Ryan1000 21:03, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh my god, we have a category 4. I am getting seriously scared now, as this can very well reach cat. 5 status if it keeps intensifying like this. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:58, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is seriously impressing me, though. This time yesterday, it had just been upgraded to a hurricane, and look at it now. Oh, and I think you're right, Dylan. Pretty sure it was Paloma. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:05, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is on the verge of becoming the first category 5 in the Atlantic since Felix of 2007. Ironically this is the same place where Felix explode. He might weaken some tomorrow but Jamaica should be preparing for a moustruos storm. I am really worried of them, hope they prepared as this is not pretty. Btw the death doll of Matthew has increase to 2 as a man drown in Colombia. Allanjeff 22:39, September 30, 2016 (UTC)

Matthew looks like he could be a category 5 in the 8pm update:

225830 1331N 07157W 6994 02756 9626 +098 //// 025114 124 132 069 01 225900 1328N 07157W 6965 02763 9605 +102 //// 006118 126 133 066 05

132-133kt surface winds - the 132kt reading wasn't flagged. 66.87.148.187 23:17, September 30, 2016 (UTC)

Now 150 mph. Very close to category 5 status. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:45, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * It may undergo an ERC before it manages to reach cat 5 strength tonight. But it's nonetheless an extremely violent hurricane and will very likely be immensely powerful when it passes through Jamaica and Cuba early next week, especially since conditions near those two islands are even more favorable than they are now. Ryan1000 23:48, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm seeing reports on Weather Underground of SFMR winds in the 138-143 kt range. If those reported SFMR observations verify, then not only is this the first Atlantic Category 5 since Felix right now, but it has broken Ivan's record as the southernmost Category 5 in the basin (approximately 13.5N, compared to Ivan's 13.7N). What a way for the Caribbean to return to form! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:29, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * My god, Matthew looks to be a Category 5 now. However, the pressure does seem unusually high for one but...the streak is over everyone. 9. Years. Owen 00:38, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Let's not get ahead of ourselves, we still need to wait for the NHC to make it official, but those SFMR obs are pointing towards an upgrade at 11pm. We'll see if the NHC has anything to say about them. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:42, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * 0z ATCF revised to 135 kts/943 mbar, slightly stronger than the 130/945 that was used for the intermediate advisory. That's a hair away from Category 5, folks. Pressure is a bit high for such intense winds, but it's still unreal to watch such a powerful hurricane come to fruition. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:46, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * To make matters worse, after Matthew hits Jamaica and Cuba, it could take a turn for the worst and go northwest for the U.S. east coast. The 12z run of the Euro takes Matthew back west after it passes Cuba and moves into the southern Bahamas, in a direction aimed at south Florida, but more importantly the 18z GFS run takes Matthew paralleling the east coast until it hits the Rhode Island/Massachusetts border as a massive 961 mbar category 3 hurricane. They haven't seen a storm that powerful in decades, let alone a category 2 in 25 years, since Bob in August 1991. That's not good, and if Matthew expands over the southeastern Atlantic like Sandy did in late October 2012, it's only going to get worse regarding storm surge and how widespread it could be. Ryan1000 00:58, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is looking very well like it is a category 5 at this very moment, and we need to see if the NHC makes it official. We'll know in about an hour. Leeboy100 Hello! 01:48, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * The suspense is building as the NHC is set to release their advisory in the next 10 minutes... ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:53, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Category 5 Matthew is here. Owen 02:59, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * IT'S NOW A CAT 5! Leeboy100 Hello! 03:02, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Matthew
And he is here. 140 kt, 941 mb. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:59, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Owen, you nailed it. With winds of 160 miles per hour and a 941 mbar pressure with the new advisory, we now have the first category 5 hurricane to cross the Atlantic in 9 years, since Felix of 2007. Ryan1000 03:00, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Pretty high pressure for a Cat 5.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:01, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic category 5 drought is over after 9 years. Wow. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 03:05, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * First C5 since 2007, oh my!! It was only a Category 1 yesterday! I have no words... wut. Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti better be preparing for this MONSTER! (And the east coast in the long run) :O ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:05, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * After 9 long years, we have a category 5 in the Atlantic. This is unbelievable, this time yesterday, it was only a category 1. Holy s**t. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:18, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Had been so long since I track one in the Atlantic. This is my fourth after Wilma, Dean and Felix. Everyone in his path will be in my prayers. I just need to say this is the weakest cat 5 in terms of pressure but we got one finally, Would have prefer out to sea but nature have decided against. Will probably weaken tomorrow by EWRC but should re strengthen before hitting Jamaica. Allanjeff 03:22, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * I have NEVER tracked an Atlantic C5 before! :O And I've been tracking hurricanes since 2010! (I have heard of storms such as Katrina on the news when I was little though) This is unbelievable...pls tell me I'm not dreaming. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:25, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * And now it's a C5 it needs to go and threaten land. Seriously... ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:32, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Atlantic C5 fishspinners are insanely rare. 'Tis the story of the Atlantic C5s... -_- ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:34, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * As I said once before, there actually has never been a fishspinning Atlantic cat 5 before. Because hurricanes Dog, Easy, and Cleo in the 1950's were all downgraded to cat 4's in the hurricane reanalysis project. Regardless, Matthew is forecast to weaken to a 130 mph cat 4 before it makes landfall or passes just east of Jamaica and moves into eastern Cuba, but it'll probably restrengthen past that before it hits, as unfortunate as it could be. It'll be interesting to see what the 00z GFS and Euro have to say on Matthew's future track now that it's a cat 5. Ryan1000 03:56, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Matthew (2nd time)
New advisory weakens Matthew to 155 mph and 942 mbars, but it's likely to restrengthen when it reaches the warm waters near Jamaica and Cuba. Ryan1000 10:29, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Man, I missed it! Well, at least I've tracked my first C5 ever in the Atlantic. T  G  10:55, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * A piece of trivia: with Matthew attaining Category 5 status last night, only two uses of this year's naming list did not have a Category 5: 1986, and 2010 (though Igor came close). 1980 had Allen; 1992 had Andrew; 1998 had Mitch; 2004 had Ivan; and now 2016 has Matthew. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:17, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Also, all of those names were retirees and their replacements. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 15:39, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * After getting our first cat 5 in years Matthew is weakening, after running into a trough. And also, maybe getting ready for an ERC? Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 15:58, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC discussion notes that it is possible that an ERC has began. The advisory of now showing Matthew as 140 mph and 943 mbar. I did not expect this much weakening overnight. At least I didn't miss out on seeing an Atlantic C5 on the NHC page for the first time! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:33, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Pressure back down to 943 millibars, but winds are also down to 140. EWRC is definitely starting to unfold. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 18:41, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * There were recon winds of 130kts recorded and a dropsonde measured 153kt winds just above the surface. The surface level was 958mb and the 153kt winds were recorded at both 952 and 951mb levels. Given it's continuing to organise, it very easily could be a category 5 once again. We'll have to wait for the official call in about an hour though. In addition, a new low pressure of 939 mbar has been observed. Owen 20:19, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Moving northwest at 3 mph according to NHC; the turn just might have begun. Advisory pressure put at 940 mbar; assuming that Matthew never regains Category 5 intensity, are there any other Atlantic or Pacific Category 5s that reached their lowest pressures while below the Cat 5 threshold? I think Ava '73 is an example but I'm not certain. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:53, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Dylan, Ava's pressure wasn't measured for most of the day while it was a cat 5 and it probably got below 915 mbars for a while before it rose to its lone measured value of 928, like John of 1994 had its 929 mbar reading recorded only when it had 160 mph winds; there was no pressure recorded when it had 175 mph winds, so it was likely more intense than 929. But that aside, I don't know if we've ever had a cat 5 before Matthew that attained a lower pressure but with a lesser category later in its lifetime, but there are some major hurricanes that attained lower pressures later in their life without getting to higher winds. Sandy is one example, so is Dennis (in the Caribbean, Dennis peaked with 150 mph winds and a 938 mbar pressure, but it weakened and restrengthened to 145 mph and 930 mbars in the Gulf of Mexico before weakening again and hitting the Florida Panhandle as a 3). But back to Matthew, some good news for Jamaica is Matthew is now expected to pass east of the island, but less interaction with Jamaica could mean more for Haiti, and for a storm of Matthew's strength, it would be awful to see. Plus, the models are fairly certain on the ridge building in again and forcing Matthew northwest towards the southeastern U.S. after it passes the Bahamas. Another trough may recurve him before he hits the U.S. coast, but the GFS is still adamant on Matthew riding that trough up the east coast into New England as a strong hurricane. Ryan1000 23:30, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew is a rarity; AFAIK, there has never been a C5 storm that reached a lower pressure at a weaker category than 5. Sandy (which wasn't a C5) is for sure the most memorable one that reached a lower pressure at a weaker intensity than its peak wind speed. Matthew is now being a massive threat to Haiti. If the official NHC forecast verifies, it will make landfall on the tip of western Haiti as a major. It will probably be at least a C4 at that time, spelling death and destruction there. Striking the poor country like that, it might end up being among the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes in the 2010s or even the 21st century (especially if it tracks a little more east than forecast). Jamaica and Cuba appear to be less of our worries now due to the threat it is currently posing to Haiti. Since that country is so impoverished, many might not even know that devastation is looming for them. And that's a really sad thing. Matthew is still possibly going to threaten the East Coast in the long run (hopefully it turns away), but all eyes are on Haiti. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:40, October 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's now down to 145 mph, but still heading north towards Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba. After Matthew moves there it'll go into the Bahamas and then north towards the U.S. east coast, though whether it will make landfall or pass just offshore is still up for debate. The 18z GFS today keeps Matthew offshore the U.S, but eventually takes it into Halifax, Nova Scotia as a very large and powerful hurricane down the road. Ryan1000 23:28, October 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * New advisory is out. Southeastern Bahamas under hurricane warning, central Bahamas now under hurricane watch. Still at 145 mph, but Matthew's pressure is now at 943 mbars. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:01, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * I knew that this would be a bad storm. Haiti is going to get hit hard by a potentially Category 4 storm. Of all the countries it could hit, and it has to hit Haiti. This is a scary, scary hurricane. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 04:18, October 3, 2016 (UTC)

2AM advisory is out. Matthew will likely make landfall on Tuesday. Winds are now down to 130 mph, pressure still at 943 mbars; still a category 4 hurricane and is currently passing over an NOAA buoy in the Caribbean. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:08, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew looks like it's ERC'ing and could possibly restrengthen once it fixes the northern eyewall later today, possibly even to a cat 5 again, before making its way into Haiti and Cuba. Jamaica is probably getting off the hook from the strongest parts of Matthew, but the global models aren't letting the U.S. off the hook yet. The Euro has been showing a much stronger ridge building back in and forcing Matthew west very close to, or making landfall on, eastern Florida while the GFS doesn't make the ridge that strong and takes it north near or onto North Carolina before heading up into the northeast or Atlantic Canada. It all depends on how Matthew fares when it interacts with eastern Cuba and Haiti. If it doesn't move over the mountains very much, its intensity may not fade very much and/or it might restrengthen over the warm waters of the Bahamas, but if it does hit the mountains for a while, it'll weaken quite a bit, since Matthew has a fairly tight concentration of strongest winds. Ryan1000 10:24, October 3, 2016 (UTC)

11AM advisory: Matthew still slowly moving towards Haiti at 6 mph, but strengthened a bit again, winds now at 140 mph and pressure went down to 941 millibars. This may hit southwestern Haiti later tonight. Hope they are prepared this time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:23, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * New models take Matthew much closer to the East Coast.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:42, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Central Bahamas is now under hurricane warning. Oh, and the pressure is back to 940 millibars, though no change at 1-minute sustained winds in the latest advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:19, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew's slow movement towards Haiti could be very bad regarding mudslides in the country, when it passes near or over them tomorrow. That's not good. The east coast is looking more worrisome, as Matthew will be passing dangerously close to Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Matthew may remain just offshore, but with hurricanes on the U.S. east coast, even a small change in track left or right can drastically change overall impacts. Ryan1000 22:18, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Very strange how the pressure is once again lower now than it was at category 5. It still has a chance to become a cat. 5 again, but I really hope it doesn't, because if Haiti can't handle a category 2 I don't even want to imagine what a category 5, let alone a 4 will do to the poor Haitians.
 * I'm scared. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 22:19, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh, and the fact that it is likely to remain a major hurricane through the Bahamas and even while skirting the U.S. means for sure that we already have our third retirement candidate of the season. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 22:24, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * The worst part about Matthew is that it's moving like a snail, only 8 mph to the NNE with the new advisory. That's going to mean copious amounts of rainfall for the region, and flooding is the worst part about storms like Matthew in Haiti since there are so few trees on the hills to absorb the rainfall and prevent mudslides from running rampant in high rainfall. Ryan1000 00:11, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Pressure finally went below 940 mbar; 934 as of now. Makes 2015 and 2016 the first time two consecutive Atlantic seasons had a storm below 940 mbar (Joaquin and Matthew) since 2007 and 2008 (Dean, Felix and Ike). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:40, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Pressure down again to 934, even lower pressure than when it was a cat. 5! Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 00:40, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wtf, this is weird. I've never seen a storm do that; have a high pressure as a C5 and then get a lower pressure when it is weaker. Anyway, Haiti could be devastated and I would not be surprised if it ends up being extremely deadly for their poor residents. :( Now it is even looking worse for the U.S., the forecast puts the center just offshore and landfall is now appearing much more likely. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:54, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * I woke up this morning with a very bad feeling in my stomach. Take a look at this. The structure somewhat reminds me of Katrina in the way of the eye. Idk. But the track continues to shift westwards toward the US, and referring to the Katrina thing, it could be just AS BAD or WORSE than Katrina if we have a major hurricane slamming into Haiti and going up the East Coast. Unimaginable effects. Owen 10:10, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * It wouldn't surprise me if the death toll is worse in Haiti than Katrina was in the US since Haiti is such an impoverished, unprepared country for hurricanes, and a 145 mph cat 4 (just about to make) landfall there isn't going to have a happy ending for that country no matter how you slice it. However, Matthew would have to track far enough west to directly hit Miami as a cat 4 if it wants to rival Katrina's damage toll, which I have doubts about. Then again, the latest runs of the global models don't turn Matthew far enough east to avoid landfall in the U.S, currently they take it into South or North Carolina as a cat 3-4, but if Matthew remains far enough west, anywhere on Florida or even Savannah, Georgia could be hit by this mighty major hurricane. All we can really do for Haiti is pray that they come out from Matthew the best they can. Ryan1000 10:28, October 4, 2016 (UTC)

Landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti
Yep, latest ADT information says that the center is just offshore and making land. The next ADT update should show the landfall. No NHC update though. 182.58.118.3 11:51, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * 8 AM NHC advisory says Matthew made landfall near Les Anglais at 7 am, so we'll say that for the header. Haiti will probably suffer severe damage and many casualties from Matthew, hopefully it won't be too extreme though. As a side note, 98L is up to 80%. Ryan1000 12:48, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * There it is, Matthew's first of likely many landfalls. Haiti is probably getting hit hard right now. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 14:26, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * New advisory coming out in a few minutes, and Matthew seems to have weakened quite a bit after landfall. By the way, I've got a day off work today, and maybe tomorrow. So I'll be on here all day. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 14:48, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * New advisory out. Winds still at 145, but pressure is up to 950. And it's back over water. Also, Florida is now under a hurricane watch. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 15:02, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully the impacts in Haiti are not that severe. By now though, eastern Cuba, The Bahamas and Florida should've prepared themselves for this ferocious storm, as any negligence in safety precautions will certainly lead to multiple fatalities, especially now that they are dealing with a storm that currently just keeps on refusing to go lower than 130 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:09, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's not going below major hurricane status anytime soon, SST's are warm enough to support Matthew being a major hurricane as it passes to the northwest towards the southeastern U.S. coast, though it could weaken to cat 2 if it heads as far north as North Carolina. Ryan1000 15:22, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * For what it's worth, Matthew's landfall in Haiti is the strongest in the entire Atlantic basin as measured by maximum sustained winds since Gustav's 135-kt landfall on Cuba, and the strongest by minimum pressure since Felix on Nicaragua (934 mbar). Matthew is also the first Category 4 hurricane to land in Haiti as such since Cleo in 1964 - it's been 52 years since Haiti has been struck by a hurricane as strong as Matthew. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:11, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * To add onto Cleo, Haiti was also hit by category 4 hurricane Flora just 1 year before Cleo, and Flora, while slightly weaker, was much larger and it stalled over Cuba, bringing torrential rains to Haiti which killed around 5000 people in the country, making Flora Haiti's deadliest hurricane on record. Matthew isn't going to stall over Cuba like Flora did, so it probably won't be as deadly, but it's still bringing torrential rains to the impoverished nation due to his slow movement over the region, so Matthew could still kill a lot people in the country when all is said and done, not to mention the impacts Matthew will bring to the eastern tip of Cuba, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. down the road. Ryan1000 16:40, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew appears to be making its second andfall right now, on Cuba. The new advisory in a few minutes may or may not confirm it. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 23:48, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * It did hit the eastern tip of Cuba as a cat 4, but interaction with Cuba really cut down on Matthew's size and circulation, meaning Nicole will probably stick around for a little longer than expected. Then again, Matthew is now expected to pass further west and either make landfall on, or pass just offshore of, the coast of Florida and maybe Georgia. Ryan1000 03:30, October 5, 2016 (UTC)

The latest advisory has now downgraded Matthew to cat 3, with 125 mph winds and 962 mbar pressure. Matthew is having some trouble recovering from his landfall in Cuba yesterday, but both the GFS and the Euro forecast Matthew to take a bizzare path in their latest runs. They bring it towards the east coast, but then as they recurve it out to sea, they expect the trough to outrun the storm and then take Matthew heading south and then west again towards the east coast, in a similar path to how Ivan recurved south after moving over the U.S. and eventually crossed Florida and became a storm again in the GoM. That would be a unique thing to see, but it could potentially make impacts in the U.S. even more dangerous since Matthew will make two threatening approaches or landfalls. That's not something you see every day, Dennis of 1999 is another instance of this. Ryan1000 10:01, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Only one or two deaths confirmed from Haiti so far as I can tell, hopefully the death toll remains low. I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that Matthew will generate the highest ACE of an individual Atlantic hurricane since Ivan. It's already at 33.3825, as compared to Igor's 41.9075 - and the entire 2013 season's 36.12. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:51, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I really don't like how the models are looping Matthew back south to hit Florida a second time after it passes up Florida's east coast as a major hurricane, I don't think any Atlantic hurricane has hit the east coast of Florida more than once as a major hurricane before, but if the latest run of the GFS pans out, Matthew could be the first one to do that, and that's not good news. Haiti and eastern Cuba were smacked hard enough by this thing as it is. On a side note, Nicole looks surprisingly better, it may actually have a good shot at being a hurricane. Ryan1000 21:26, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew is looking really scary for Florida, and it is most probably going to break the U.S. major hurricane landfall drought that has been going on since 2005. This year has been crazy in terms of droughts broken; Hermine broke the 11-year long hurricane landfall in Florida drought, Matthew broke the 9-year long Atlantic C5 drought, and it's getting really likely the major hurricane drought will be broken by Matthew also. I believe they are not done surveying Haiti's deaths yet, and it's possible the count could skyrocket to more than 100 there. I hope that doesn't happen, as that would be extremely unfortunate. At this rate, Matthew's retirement chance will be 100%... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:50, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * The 8 pm advisory nerfed Matthew to a 115 mph major hurricane, but Matthew looks a lot better organized now and it could rebound to category 4 before heading ashore on the Florida coast Thursday night or Friday. Ryan1000 02:17, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Back up to a category 4 as of the 11 am advisory. 140 mph, 940 mb. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 14:57, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * 140 mph. a Category 4 again, and it's Florida-bound. Hurricane warning has been extended to parts of South Carolina. I just hope this won't be Ivan 2.0, but given its track (and the forecasted loop), it is imminent. I just pray and hope that people who will be on the path of this storm will be safe and are well-prepared and well-informed about this deluge. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:03, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew has not ceased to amaze us this season. We are on track to see the most powerful hurricane to strike the United States since Charley of 2004. 168.213.7.119 17:24, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Bad news everybody, 108 deaths have been confirmed in Haiti alone, from Matthew.
 * Also, per new advisory, pressure once again down to 939 millibars. New advisories now being issued every hour, BTW. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 17:46, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Also, Daytona Beach is under it's first hurricane warning in 17 years, last time was Floyd, back in 1999. Going off topic a bit, I miss 1999, that was such a great year. Anyways, it's now looking like this situation will get worse before it gets any better for Florida. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 17:59, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Death toll, unfortunately, rising rapidly. Number of deaths is now 142, 136 in Haiti alone. Some Haitians are apparently saying this is as bad, if not worse, than the 2010 earthquake. And it hasn't even hit the US yet. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 18:12, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * It seems that Matthew has rebounded to category 4 status and is now up to 140 mph and 939 mbars, from category 3 status yesterday. It also could be, according to Dr. Jeff Masters, the first major hurricane to ever hit the space coast (Cape Canaveral) of Florida on record. Frances of 2004 caused some damage there but it was weaker than Matthew is now and it made landfall further south, and no major hurricane has made landfall there since 1851. Matthew could be the first to do so, if it passes slightly farther west than currently forecast. Ryan1000 19:45, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew just keeps picking up speed with every new advisory. It makes me wonder if this thing will make landfall tonight, instead of tomorrow night. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 21:46, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * New preliminary death toll from Haiti of 264. --Whiplash (talk) 22:25, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's over 280 according to this reference in the wikipedia article. That's not to mention the damage in Cuba and what will become of parts of eastern Florida. Ryan1000 22:35, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * I had this feeling all this time that Haiti's death toll from Matthew would be high. I was right, of course. :( Along with Sandy, this is the scariest storm I have ever tracked in the Atlantic. Florida has not seen such a threat in a while, and I hope people are evacuating from the Florida coast. In preparation, the Walt Disney Resort has been closed for the first time since Charley - and not to mention, Port Canaveral has been closed for the first time since 2004. Florida's governor Rick Scott urged over 1.5 million people to evacuate. Matthew is certainly going to join Sandy, Katrina, Ike, etc. in the Costliest U.S. Hurricanes Club. I really hate to see this happen. It will certainly be retired now. This is even forecast to loop back to the Bahamas after being done with the southeast U.S., so it will most possibly strike Florida TWICE. I wish Florida and everyone else in Matthew's path to prepare, evacuate if possible, and stay safe. This just...can't be happening. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:50, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * I know somebody that lives in Florida that has not evacuated, and I'm very worried about them. They live only a couple blocks away from the ocean in Melbourne, Florida. :( T  G  00:02, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

I live in the Tampa Bay area and we are under tropical storm watch and schools are canceled because Matthew is so close and powerful. Prayers are needed for the East Coast of Florida however, if it maintains C4 status up to landfall it will be the strongest to make landfall on US soil since Charley of 2004. Hermine ended the hurricane streak, Matthew looks like he will end the major hurricane streak. If he doesn't make landfall, would it still count if Florida was still experiencing major hurricane conditions though? Owen 00:37, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * I don't think it will count since it actually has to be a landfall. TG, pray that s/he evacuates and stays safe. This could be among the worst storms in Floridian history but it will mainly affect the East Coast of the state. Owen, you might get plenty of rain and strong winds, but it shouldn't be nearly as bad as what could go down from Miami to Jacksonville. But, I still hope you're safe. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:45, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC only considers it a landfall if the eye fully crosses the coast, and it's still not out of the question that Matthew could parallel the Florida coast while the center remains offshore, but it's passing close enough to Florida to bring serious impacts whether it makes landfall or not, and it already caused serious impacts in the Caribbean regardless of wheter it makes a landfall in the U.S. or not. As a side note, Matthew's close passage to Florida is bringing serious enough impacts to cause the NHC website to go down at this moment, so you'll have to follow them on Facebook or Twitter for updates on Matthew. Ryan1000 03:50, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still on Florida's eastern coast but now down to category 3 after lashing The Bahamas. Unfortunately, it's not Bahamas alone that suffered greatly, Haiti also felt the wrath of this storm; as a matter of fact, they're the worst hit. So far, the death toll has skyrocketed to 484, with 478 in Haiti alone. This may get retired, but if Haiti did not retire Hanna '08 and Gordon '94, I doubt if Matthew would follow its the name it replaced (Mitch), or would follow its also-deadly 2010 predecessor. (Jeanne '04, though retired, was most likely retired due to its effects in the U.S. [as U.S. requests retirement for significant storms and Haiti is somewhat reluctant: cf. Hanna 2008 and Gordon 1994], but I think the effects of Jeanne in Haiti was also considered.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:41, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

Scraping Florida
Added a new header for ease of navigation. Matthew is down to 100 kts/947 mbar per the new intermediate advisory, and thankfully has so far restrained itself to paralleling the Florida coast instead of making landfall, but the latest figures from Haiti are horrific. 842 dead, estimated $1 billion in damage; the latter is the rough equivalent of a $934 billion hurricane in the United States. Hopefully Matthew can weaken as rapidly as Nicole just did, because with the catastrophe in Haiti on top of severe damage in Cuba and the Bahamas, that's quite enough malpractice for one storm. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:28, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

The numbers of deads in Haiti is horrible and the it might increase sadly as they are still many places that are incommunicated and isolated from other parts of the island. I guess it will depend on Cuba, Bahamas and the USA for Matthew to be retired as Haiti never sends a representative like I mention below in the replacement section. Florida is reporting 4 deads so far. Allanjeff 20:44, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * I see this very much as a Jeanne type situation in 2004 and I believe he damage in the United States (not to mention the media coverage of this storm) will be enough for the U.S. to request retirement even if the death toll in the states is not very high. Although I suspect it will rise in the U.S. due to rain and flooding in the Carolinas over the next few days in a very Floyd type situation. The only U.S. hurricane with a lot of coverage and causing damage in the states that wasn't retired that I can recall was 2012's Hurricane Issac. So there is not a lot of precedent of a mass coverage hurricane event in the U.S. not being requested to be retired in my opinion. --Whiplash (talk) 22:35, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Matthew (2nd time)
Downgraded to a Category 2, but the death toll keeps jumping. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:27, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Since Matthew paralleled the coast of Florida and didn't officially make landfall in the state, we still have yet to see an official U.S. landfalling major hurricane since Wilma, but Matthew still caused major damage up and down the Florida coast regardless, and impacts elsewhere in the Caribbean were staggering, especially for Haiti. As a side note, Matthew's ACE is now 45.1075 units, which is the highest for any Atlantic hurricane so far in the 2010's, surpassing Igor, and the highest in the Atlantic period since Ivan in 2004. Ryan1000 23:16, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * What an absolutely horrible storm this has been. I knew this would be a bad storm, but I didn't think it would get this bad. At least 840 people have died, the majority of those in Haiti. Absolutely sad. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 23:31, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * The Wikipedia page has mentioned that 853 casualties have occurred in relation to Matthew; 842 in Haiti. I actually was not too surprised to see the death count skyrocket to such an amount since Haiti is a severely impoverished nation that is very sensitive to natural disasters. Still, this is really sad and I hope for the country to have a quick and steady recovery. The death toll should continue the rising trend as new deaths from the U.S. are reported. Matthew has been a severely horrible hurricane that has a near-certain chance of retirement. Florida and the Southeast U.S. has also been experiencing devastation and that means that even more sad news is coming. The U.S. major hurricane landfall drought continues on, since Matthew has only scraped Florida without making any landfall. It is forecast to continue up the coast until it reaches North Carolina, when Matthew will begin the southward turn. It will affect the Bahamas for a second time but as a weak TD, and Florida might actually not be hit a second time while Matthew is still tropical (but Matthew's remnant low should reach Florida). What a tragedy. :( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:08, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * More tragic news: 887 deaths now attributed to Matthew as it weakens to 105 mph (with pressure still at 948 mbars); 877 of which from Haiti alone. I don't know if the death toll is enough for retirement, but given the fact that it's one of Haiti's costliest (if not the costliest ever, with damages at >$1 billion), I think it is highly likely that Matthew will not be back in 2022. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:57, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * A sad piece of trivia for all of you: With at least 887 people dead, Matthew is now the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since 2005, both Katrina and Stan. A very unfortunate situation. :( Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 04:29, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Just a little update - Matthew may have spared Florida but it appears he is headed for a landfall in South Carolina. If the winds hold at 105, it'll beat Arthur of 2014 to be the strongest Atlantic hurricane to make landfall on the U.S. since Ike. The turn he was originally expected to make as of now has not happened so it now appears the worst conditions will be coming ashore. Not good, especially when the minimum pressure corresponds to the energy of a hurricane around strong C3 or C4 status. I did some research and Ike made landfall with a minimum pressure of 950, if Matthew's pressure of 948 holds, yes, we will have the strongest hurricane to make landfall on the United States since Wilma. However, recon is currently in Matthew and will give us a lot more information. Owen 05:28, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew still has winds of 105 and a minimum pressure of 954 and looks to headed toward landfall near Hilton Head Island, South Carolina with a landfall within the next couple of hours it appears and will probably be the most powerful hurricane to make landfall on U.S. soil since Ike. Owen 07:54, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Matthew is currently making landfall in Beaufort County in South Carolina as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Ike. Will be interesting to see what daylight will show after Matthew moves away. Owen 08:23, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is starting to turn northeastwards, but the NHC continues to note the possibility of a legitimate landfall. The winds and pressure are steady at around 90 knots and 955 mb, respectively. The death toll in Haiti remains constant at 877. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:54, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Downgraded to 85 mph as of the 8AM advisory. Beaufort County in South Carolina is experiencing the worst of this storm right now, but nearby areas are also experiencing flooding due to storm surge. Death toll is now at 889, 877 in Haiti, 6 in Florida, 4 in Dominican Republic, and one each in Colombia and Saint Vincent & the Grenadines. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:33, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

U.S. landfall
Since no one updated this, just thought I should. Matthew made its official U.S. landfall at 11 am EDT near McClellanville, South Carolina. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 16:17, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

It has, of course, weakened after landfall. 75 mph, 967 mb.  Leeboy100&lt;/span Beware Matthew's fury. 16:20, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

New advisory out. 75 mph, 972 mb, and, unfortunately, two more confirmed deaths due to flooding in North Carolina.

Also, this is my 600th edit on this wiki. I sure have come a long way the past 4 years I've been here. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 18:18, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

At least Matthew is weakening fast. So sad to hear about the nearly 1,000 deaths. elawson7
 * Matthew may be weakening (now at 75 mph, 977 mbars), but it still caused an estimated 8-12 billion in damage in the U.S. (4-6 billion in insured losses, the total is usually double that), so it's likely going to be close to, if not one of the, top 10 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history. Ryan1000 22:01, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * If the damages appear to be the case of being in the $9-12 billion range, it looks like Matthew will fall somewhere between the comparison of Hurricane Rita, Frances and Georges in terms of damages. Owen 22:10, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * I can't believe Matthew has caused that much damage in just the U.S. This name definitely deserves retirement. I really don't want a second Matthew to be snubbed. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 22:29, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

Matthew is, as of now, the 18th costliest Atlantic named storm/hurricane. Wasn't expecting that. elawson7 23:10, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * 8PM intermediate advisory keeps Matthew a hurricane, but pressure up to 981 mbar. NHC: "...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA..." ): Matthew NEEDS to stop. This is terrifying to watch... elawson7 00:03, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * This storm is unbelievable. How is it still a hurricane? And its now the 18th costliest on record as elawson7 said, by the way, welcome to Hurricanes Wikia. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 00:16, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew looks more extratropical now. And thank you! elawson7  00:55, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * There is currently a record-breaking flooding situation developing in North Carolina. Although it appears Matthew's damages will total to be at least around $9 billion, I don't think that has counted the damages in South Carolina and what is happening in North Carolina right now. Bahamas and Cuba have also yet to release official damage totals. Owen 01:33, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * At this rate, Matthew may top Rita and become at least the ninth costliest Atlantic named storm, just behind Charley and Irene. However, if these numbers are underestimated, he may fall higher up on that list. elawson7  02:25, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Latest NHC advisory puts Matthew to become a strong post-tropical cyclone later today, much similar to Sandy '12. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:13, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew should be extratropical in the next 12 hours. Unfortunately it'll be remembered as one of the worst storms this decade, and is likely to be retired by just looking at the U.S. damage total. Not to mention Haiti's death toll (even if they don't send a representative to request retirements). ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:35, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew
Currently a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone. NHC is still issuing advisories due to the warnings and watches in place for the Outer Banks. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:12, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

The death toll in the United States is now 18. Not good at all. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  15:10, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * CoreLogic released data Saturday estimating the cost of wind and storm damage from Matthew on insured homes and commercial buildings. At best, the cost will be $4-$6 billion. But those estimates don't include additional water damage or even business interruptions that will likely take place in the coming weeks. With all of that considered, Moody's analytics reportedly predicts the total economic cost could rival the $70 billion worth of damage caused by Superstorm Sandy. Not good. As far as I know the estimates so far don't count the damages in NC or SC. Owen 18:49, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Last NHC advisory issued as the threat diminishes along the North Carolina coast. Good riddance. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:51, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Finally. Sadly, however, damage totals and fatalities continue to rise. Sigh. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  21:11, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Although Matthew may be gone, the mark it's left surely isn't. The death count continues to grow, with at least 900 deaths from this beast.
 * Good riddance. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 23:55, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Death toll out of Haiti is now exactly 1,000, with 25 additional deaths elsewhere along Matthew's path. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:13, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Unbelievable. With that in mind, Matthew's retirement is probably set in stone. I can't see any reason why they wouldn't retire him. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  01:40, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

Finally. What a storm. Haiti death toll now at 1,000, U.S. fatality count now at 21. NC experienced its worst flooding since Floyd. Matthew even broke some records set by Hazel. Maybe it's time to put this storm to the archives. Retirement is almost certain. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:43, October 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * There was a mistake; the U.S. fatality count remains at 19. Damage totals for Cuba and the Bahamas aren't out yet, but they'll certainly be astronomical looking at the extent and severity of damage. I won't be surprised to see Matthew slapped with a US$10 billion damage total within a couple of months. Anyway not quite good riddance yet: Matthew's extratropical remnant is still alive per NHC marine forecasts, though weakening. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:41, October 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * US death toll up to 27. Very unfortunate. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  00:42, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * It seems that Matthew has finally left us for good, there's still a long way to go before the states from Florida to North Carolina fully come back from Matthew's widespread destruction across the east coast, but all that's left behind is a large mass of dry air over the western Atlantic that may interfere with Nicole's re-development into a hurricane. Ryan1000 16:26, October 11, 2016 (UTC)