User blog comment:STO12/2013 Season/@comment-4074533-20130729192737

For me, I believe the season will produce 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. And yes, August is what tells the story of a season. Do not judge June or July activity as an overall season indicator. 2010 had only three tropical storms and one hurricane before August 22, but jumped from Danielle to Nicole in only 36 days. 1997 had five total storms and two hurricanes by July 17, but only Erika formed from then until the start of October. 1950 had no tropical storms at all before August 12, yet still produced eight major hurricanes. Right now, we are three weeks above climatology in terms of named storms. I think conditions in August will improve significantly. I see a 2008-like August, but not a 2004, 2010, or 2012 August.