Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season/November

November
As the season winds down, is it possible that we'll see Sebastien or even Tanya? ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:13, November 1, 2019 (UTC)

Zzz... the basin is so dead. The season could very well be over unless a very late or post-season surprise pops up. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:18, November 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic is frozen up with shear and stable air, it wouldn't surprise me if nothing else forms this year in the Atlantic, though the EPac might still get Raymond with the AOI over the open Pacific. Ryan1000 03:22, November 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Northeast of Leeward Islands
Finally something has popped up. This is 0/20 on the outlook, but will merge with a frontal system late next week so if it wants to develop, it better do it quickly. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:34, November 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/30. Could Sebastien be possible here? ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:47, November 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 40/50! Sebastien is possible guys. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:47, November 17, 2019 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
It's been invested soon after I posted that. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:28, November 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's now 50/50. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 06:03, November 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 60/60. Only has a couple more days to develop though before it interacts with a frontal system. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:17, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

70/70 now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:06, November 19, 2019 (UTC)


 * 80/80...this might briefly get Sebastien, but it won't last past Thursday or so because of the front. Ryan1000 14:07, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sebastien
Up on NHC. Forecast to peak at 45 kt. -- Java Hurricane  15:56, November 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oh it skipped TD status. At least we got this far in this list. Sebastien is one of the names that I like the most in List V. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:03, November 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, another storm? I never expected we would ever get this far in the naming list. We're now the 4th most active season on record. Anyway, the initial intensity is 45 mph/1008 mbar. Expected to be another weak fishspinning TS. It's nice to see something this late in the season. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:10, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

2019 is technically the 8th most active in named storms (tied with 1969) because there's a 5-way tie at 19 storms for 3rd (1887, 1995, and 2010-12), so this would be 8th. Kind of like how Maria is considered the 3rd costliest hurricane, not the 2nd, since Harvey and Katrina are both tied for 1st. Still good to see Sebastien, for the first time since 1995, but he won't become much stronger before the front eats him in a day or two. Ryan1000 17:44, November 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * That's true, but in terms of number of storms, it's the 4th most active (tied with 1969). It can be either 4th (in number of storms) or 8th (by year) most active depending on how you look at it. Sebastien is up to 50 mph/1002 mbar and now forecast to reach 70 mph. Maybe a hurricane is possible before it turns extratropical. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:42, November 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60 mph now, 999 mb and expected to become a hurricane tomorrow. Beatissima (talk) 03:02, November 21, 2019 (UTC)

Huh, looks like Sebastien is overdoing his intensity forecast a bit. If he becomes a hurricane, he'd be the first do so this late in the season since Otto in 2016, which formed around this time 3 years ago. However, time is running out, and Sebastien will be running into the front overnight and tomorrow morning, and that'll tear him apart for good. Ryan1000 03:25, November 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, 18 named storms and 20 tropical depressions. The hurricane count may be about to go from 6 to 7. I'm actually surprised, but I feel like I shouldn't be. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:56, November 21, 2019 (UTC)

Sebastien is getting rapidly sheared by the front now, and I'd say his one chance he had at becoming a hurricane has all but diminished. Still, it's good to see us get this far in the season. If just the two unnamed depressions earlier this year became named storms then we would've been only one storm short of completely running the table. What an incredible year this has been. Ryan1000 17:26, November 21, 2019 (UTC)

This tweet kinda says otherwise though... imagery might have been from a few hours ago so there is a strong chance you are correct Ryan but let's wait and see anyway; so far only Fernand and Nestor were the only male names not to reach hurricane status this year. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:11, November 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * No longer forecast to become a hurricane, looks like Ryan might be right. Currently 60 mph/999 mbar and might have a hard time strengthening in the conditions ahead of him. It's surprising that despite all these named storms, no storm bearing a female name ever reached hurricane status. 2019 is really the epitome of a sexist, misogynist season. 😂 ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:49, November 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * And NHC finally conceded. "Sebastien no longer expected to strengthen" as they said. He remains at 60 mph though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:47, November 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now 50 mph/1000 mbar. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:33, November 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Hmm, apparently it's a little stronger. 60 mph/999 mbar as of the latest advisory. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:46, November 22, 2019 (UTC)

Upped to 65 mph and 998 mbars, also the NHC is joking a little about this storm and the time of year it is, saying things like: ...TENACIOUS SEBASTIEN DOES NOT KNOW IS NOVEMBER AND REFUSES TO WEAKEN... and "There is not much that I can add that my predecessors have not already addressed except to say that Sebastien does not know that is November near Thanksgiving" in the latest discussion. He's quite disorganized though, and should die out sometime this weekend or next week. Ryan1000 02:45, November 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * The NHC seems to be irritated with Sebastien and the model predictions. They termed the model variance as Jekyll and Hyde behaviour. -- Java Hurricane  03:13, November 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * Sebastien is turning out to be this year's Leslie.  And at this point, I wouldn't put it past him to defy the hostile conditions and become a Category 1 hurricane. Beatissima (talk) 03:45, November 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * Well it's surprising that it continues to intensify even though it's reaching less favorable conditions. I chuckled at the NHC's wording in the latest advisory. I'd say this is becoming like Epsilon '05, imagine if it actually did become a hurricane lol. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:05, November 23, 2019 (UTC)

The remnants of Sebastien (likely going to be extratropical) may eventually reach the central Azores sometime next week, but it'll be in and out very fast. The low-level circulation of Sebastien is actually southwest of the main convection, even though it appears well-organized, so I stand by my earlier call on this not being a hurricane, even though he may last longer than initially thought. Ryan1000 06:03, November 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this probably won't be a hurricane, but it's intensity is maintained at 65 mph/997 mbar. The forecast is highly uncertain with not much weakening forecast. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:33, November 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 65 mph, but the pressure is a bit lower (994 mbar). The NHC seems to really be getting tired of this storm lol: (Quoted from the discussion)


 * "Sebastien is quickly moving up on my list of most annoying storms during the 2019 season, and hopefully this isn't another night of it making my forecast look silly. I think (hope?) the intensity outlook is getting easier since the storm will be moving over sub-20C waters by tomorrow morning." ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:06, November 24, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Sebastien
Final advisory issued as it turns extratropical near the Azores. It was pretty interesting to track for a late-season storm. I guess this might be the final goodbye to the 2019 season (unless a post-season surprise shows up). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:30, November 25, 2019 (UTC)