Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I think that we'll probably see a below average season for the first time since 2013. Probably a La Nina? I dunno, it's far out to tell. Any others? Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:04, November 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm thinking near-average for now. A potential La Nina could make the season less active, but it's too early to know for sure if a below-average season will occur. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:43, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I agree with you Steve. Its too early to make any prediction about the condition of the ENSO right now, and so to predict the season. A near average season looks likely, unless we get something like 2010. --182.58.43.102 13:15, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd say near to below average. To be fair, I'm only interested in Hurricane Lane.  SUPREME COLGATE CREW 14:48, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is going to be the EPac's 2013. The vertical wind shear will be extreme through most of the basin for the most of next season. This is going to be a re-2011 with not as many C4 storms, let alone if we see any C3s. T  G  My Birthday 21:07, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Made the betting pools, click here. - Garfield
 * Ayo, check out my predictions under the "Strangest Storm" section for Lane. GO ON LANE, you're the only EPAC 2018 storm I'm actually looking forward to. (Or shall I call you Elaine, your full name?)  SUPREME COLGATE CREW 20:06, December 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Rarah, Elaine is not the full name. Lane is a male name. T  G  My Birthday 12:34, December 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol, still gonna call Lane "Elaine the Pain", dis gun be gud. SUPREME COLGATE CREW 16:06, December 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel this year could be similar to 2017 how it gets through a lot of names, but the storms are weak and ACE is fairly low. We'll see. - Garfield


 * Damn, I happen like the EPac a lot for its abundance of fishspinning majors. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:41, January 4, 2018 (UTC)

Just got this from Storm2K:

"Who wants to answer the following question? Which names will be the big ones in the 2018 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season? (Cat 3 or higher)

I will go with Daniel,Gilma,John,Miriam and Olivia.

Ditto. Same here."

Yeah, because those are the overrated names. I predict Lane will be one of the strongest to be honest. #TeamLane2018  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:09, February 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * I would agree with Daniel, Gilma, and Olivia. Maybe add in Ileana or Kristy. I honestly just can't see the name Lane going to any strong, imo. T  G  2 0 1 8 21:57, February 5, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, because of the hurricane tracker community's strong bias towards Daniel, Gilma and Olivia in that list finna smh fam. Why don't you see Lane become any strong? You have something against her? No, I predict Daniel, Fabio, Ileana and Lane to all peak as majors. SERIOUSLY, THIS WILL BE THE YEAR OF THE UNDERDOGS, I predict Gilma will be a flop TS Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 00:44, February 6, 2018 (UTC)

I don't think Lane will be that weak at all. #TeamLane2018  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 00:46, February 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I know a guy named Lane who is a real moron, which is what I have against Lane. Every time I hear that name, it reminds me of that kid. T  G  2 0 1 8 01:55, February 7, 2018 (UTC)

hmmm why would you say that? was he a bully, or was he wasted all the time?? I can just think of an edgy alternative girl or a cute guy whenever that name is heard Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 02:52, February 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * He was a bully who threatened to stab me and several other kids. He also threatened to shoot up the school. T  G  2 0 1 8 21:24, February 7, 2018 (UTC)

You serious? oh my days... I bet he's in prison now, good thing you spoke the truth! I am so sorry to hear your experiences. Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 22:24, February 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow... the Lane that you met must have had major issues. He may have been severely abused as a child, which could lead to that kind of behavior. Hopefully he is now in a group home or mental hospital, or he could even be in prison now. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:57, February 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Was just gonna say what Steve said but I was too frightened to. To add he might be sectioned. (I do know of a Lane at my uni but she comes from a country where English is not the first language (it's her nickname; her first language is French), that's why I didn't view it as that bad).  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 02:36, February 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Anyway, even though the names are cute this year, I'm really missing the Legend Trio already (Jimena, Darby, Kenny). These three always so some crazy shit in the basin that they are the three most legendary names of all time (Jimena for always standing out from the rest of the majors, Darbasaur for always being a C3 and Kenny for always being a C4). I'll have to wait until I'm at least 22 to see them again :( Are there any names that always have strong tendencies on this year's list?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:45, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:
 * Anyway, even though the names are cute this year, I'm really missing the Legend Trio already (Jimena, Darby, Kenny). These three always so some crazy shit in the basin that they are the three most legendary names of all time (Jimena for always standing out from the rest of the majors, Darbasaur for always being a C3 and Kenny for always being a C4). I'll have to wait until I'm at least 22 to see them again :( Are there any names that always have strong tendencies on this year's list?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:45, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:


 * 19-12-5 for this year's numbers
 * Lane is the strongest this year, a high-end, fishy C4 in September, headed for Hawaii, or passes very near it.
 * Remember MaLester, KiGnaMena, JuliSelle, DanElia and IrVa in previous years? Yes, those were the power couples of selected years of the EPac during this current decade. 2018's power couple will be KrAne, two fishy C4s that should produce a good set of ACE.
 * Weakest storm is Carly (sorry for all Carly lovers!)
 * Nobody gets retired.
 * Lots of good-quality storms this year; I'm anticipating plenty of C2s.

What about you? ｕｒ　ｍａｉ　ｗａｉｆｕ　ｄｅｓｕ　ノ域囲真 23:10, March 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * One more month until the EPac season kicks in. -- Roy 25  00:42, April 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Everyone's worried about Lane, but I'm worring about John. It could be a California Disaster - 01:13, April 19th, 2018 - Bluecaner


 * The season has officially begun! --70.190.21.73 00:00, May 15, 2018 (UTC)

Pre-season (Jan to mid-May)
In case. -- Roy 25  00:42, April 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * This model shows a possibility of a storm developing 66 hours from now. Another pre-season storm, could break Adrian's record if it does form. Also this storm does look like it would form in the CPac basin. -- Roy 25  01:56, April 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hope it forms! -Bluecaner, 02:41, April 25, 2018 (UTC)

This Model] shows it developing 34 hours from now.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:47, April 26, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Out in the Ocean, SE of Mexico
STWO up by NHC, first disturbance this year here. Low chance of forming; medium chance within 5 days. -- Roy 25  17:51, May 7, 2018 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
First invest of the 2018 EPac season. Has an outside chance to become an early-season Aletta; the 2012 Aletta did that too. Ryan1000 21:26, May 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now medium chance of formimg with 50/50. Stated that a tropical depression may form later today or the next day before entering non-favorable conditions. An increasing chance we may have another pre-season storm. -- Roy 25  20:04, May 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70%...could Aletta be coming later today? Ryan1000 10:08, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Needs more thunderstorms over the center... come on 90E! ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:16, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Accordingly, has until late Thursday until non-favorable kicks in. Please don't be a re-PTC 10. -- Roy 25  12:26, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Had reached non-favorable conditions, chances decreased to 50%. However, it still has a possibility a depression could form from this later today before wind shear kicks in tomorrow. -- Roy 25  17:45, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Downgraded to 30/30. This was a fail lol. -- Roy 25  03:08, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like Adrian's record is going to stay. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:54, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 50/50. Still doubt formation. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:32, May 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
OMG NO WAY!!! UNEXPECTED!!!-- Roy 25  20:40, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Turns out myself (and Roy) were proven wrong and TD-One is now active as of the latest advisory . Nutfield001 (talk) 20:48, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look like it's going to do anything else from here though... Send Help Please (talk) 20:53, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * True, the forecast cone doesn't expect One-E to strengthen to Aletta. Though only a depression, it's a nice pre-season surprise and continues the streak of pre-season storms in the EPAC (east of 180°) after Pali in 2016. Nutfield001 (talk) 21:01, May 10, 2018 (UTC)

now slightly stronger.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:03, May 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is such an early bird. Did not expect anything to develop this soon! I guess it is a weaker variant of Adrian from last year; both formed similarly early. However, this should not become Aletta due to powerful shear. Aletta will have to wait. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, May 11, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E
Now post-tropical. Say goodbye to the early storm. -- Roy 25  02:34, May 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * There goes our first shot at Aletta. Maybe we'll have something by the end of the month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:21, May 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
June has begun, and the EPac has a new area of invest to watch for south of Mexico. It's not expected to develop in the next 2 days, but has a 20% chance of becoming Aletta in 5. Ryan1000 14:19, June 1, 2018 (UTC)

Now 30%.No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:34, June 1, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 0/50%.No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:38, June 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Increased further to 0/60. Aletta definitely coming from this one. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:12, June 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 10/70. Could be Aletta, or peak at sad TD 2E. -- Roy 25  23:15, June 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Both GFS and ECMWF show this becoming a hurricane within the next 7 days. Hopefully it misses Western Mexico. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:41, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:38, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 20/90. Models, like KN2731 said, brings this to not just a hurricane, but major as well. Models, including ECMWF, also show the formation of Bud soon, so we should keep an eye. -- Roy 25  14:34, June 3, 2018 (UTC)

I'd be surprised if this doesn't become Aletta by this point, but it's expected to remain offshore of Mexico. However, it could bring some surf to the coast of Mexico or southern California. If it becomes major hurricane Aletta, it would be the first storm named Aletta to become a major hurricane. Ryan1000 16:22, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/90. -- Roy 25  17:28, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's almost a certainty now because those odds look pretty good. Hurricane Kat  18:29, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * The GFS has been sticking with what looks like a re-Carlotta 2000 or a re-Bud 2012 (only if Bud was somewhat stronger). This has a great shot at becoming the first hurricane and the first major hurricane of the season. Euro even has developed a C2-C3 hurricane, so Aletta is likely to be fairly intense. T  G  2 0 1 8 18:36, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 40/90. I'm suprised this hasn't been invested yet. -- Roy 25  23:17, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * 60/90. GFS brings this to 927 mbar, but for some reason ECMWF is now slightly less enthusiastic than yesterday. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:53, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * The GFS also eventually takes this a little close to central/northern Baja in the 06Z run today, but it's expected to weaken quite a bit by then or die offshore; Blanca 3 years ago became the earliest TS to strike Baja, but only as a minimal storm. Both the GFS and the Euro also foresee another storm behind Aletta-to-be, with the Euro making it a strong fishspinner while the GFS recurves it towards Mexico around Manzanillo. EPac is starting to wake up. Ryan1000 14:01, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Now invested, and up to 60/90. This will most likely be Aletta, and could become a strong hurricane. - Vile


 * The GFS is still sticking with a strong hurricane, definitely something that could warrant some attention. I think this storm will be very similar to Hurricane Bud in 2012 in the way that it behaves. T  G  2 0 1 8 15:06, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I wonder why it took that long to be invested? Anyways, models still does show this storm near or at major hurricane status. -- Roy 25  15:22, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * GFS is now surprisingly showing only 96 kts for its latest run. T  G  2 0 1 8 17:17, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Behind Invest 91E
This is a great candidate for Bud, GFS develops a 929 mbar storm in about 9 days for this one. Currently 0/20. T G  2 0 1 8 17:33, June 4, 2018 (UTC)