Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

August
It's technically been August for a little over an hour now, so I guess it's time to start a new header. and with that comes an AoI! When will the fun stop? Cyclone1 (01:09 UTC -1/08/2007)

AoI: North Gulf
Stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf. TWC has mentioned this, saying that this area needs to be watched for the formation of a possible low. A few models develop this, taking into the Panhandle as a depression. Interesting? Cyclone1 (01:09 UTC -1/08/2007)


 * Not unless you're making vacation plans for the Panhandle. -- SkyFury 04:10, 1 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I think more likely a storm will form EAST of Florida. -Winter123 04:24, 1 August 2007 (UTC)


 * No, I think the Gulf is definitely the place to watch. Just west of Florida. Upper level winds are nearly perfect, SST's are very warm, all we need is one flare up of convection, then all eyes on the Gulf. Cyclone1 (13:27 UTC -1/08/2007)
 * Convection flaring up nicely, now. Cyclone1 (14:21 UTC -1/08/2007)
 * Recon is flying out tomorrow. (What? Cyclone1, you're seeing things!!) Nope, it's true. This will most likely be 90L later today. Cyclone1 (15:45 UTC -1/08/2007)


 * I was just saying because the GFS develops it basically on land, whereas the CMC moves it over florida before blowing it up into a hurricane, which is the scenario I'd prefer. I doubt this will be a TD if it moves onto land like the models predict. -Winter123 18:42, 1 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Too early to make a judgment on this one. It's definately an area to watch. Right now, though it doesn't even have a low pressure center. -- SkyFury 21:13, 1 August 2007 (UTC)

Gone. Cyclone1 (22:20 UTC -4/08/2007)


 * Yeah, I never did get what the NHC was so excited about. Early on, I thought it might have had a chance, but I wrote it off a couple of days ago. -- SkyFury 03:23, 5 August 2007 (UTC)

AoI: East Carribean
Interesting little blob in the Carib here. A few (that means multiple) global models develop this sucker. Conditions are good and getting better ahead of it. Could be a Gulf storm. Thoughts? Cyclone1 (01:59 UTC -9/08/2007)


 * Thoughts- In a normal season I'd say it's a no-brainer this will develop. Almost no shear and great convection. But it's 2007 so right when you think it's about to be named it'll just go 'poof' and blue sky is all that will be left -Winter123 04:49, 9 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Haha, excellent point. Joe Bastardi expects a tropical storm at least, and the EURO, CMC, and NOGAPS models all develop it. Maybe it'll be like TS Bret in 05, but stronger and further north. Cyclone1 (21:39 UTC -9/08/2007)


 * Are you talking about the thing near Jamaica? It is FAR too early to say anything with regards to this one. Predicting it to be a tropical storm is like predicting a fetus to grow into the man that finds a cure for cancer. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Apparently, the NHC seems to really like this fetus. It puts it as a "High-amplitude tropical wave" (just like the one off of Africa), and only recently took it off of the development page. It's been pretty consistent with it's doings, though, so I think, a day later, it is only SOMEWHAT too early to say something about this one (no offense). 68.100.190.56

The 12Z NAM shows a well established tropical storm moving into the Gulf soon. I know, I know, it's the NAM, which is less reliable than the CMC, but still it's interesting. Slow development means just that....sloooow development. Cyclone1 (16:59 UTC -11/08/2007)


 * Convection has significantly increased over the past six hours, but it still doesn't have a low pressure center associated with it. -- SkyFury 02:27, 12 August 2007 (UTC)

AoI: North of Bermuda
What the frick is this? We appear to have a very intense ball of deep convection in the middle of nowhere. It doesn't even really show up on the surface analysis. Logic wants to tell me it's nothing, but that's a lot of bright colors for an aimless thunderhead. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC)


 * ?!?!?!?!?! It looks like it just blew up from the end of a front under extreme shear and created a favorable upper level environment for itself. It looks like it already has a broad LLC because it was part of a front, and again, all shear is passing north of it (It's way up over Northern Vermont...) as it somehow blew up an upper level High over itself. Could it be an out-of-nowhere Dean? Maybe this year WILL be interesting after all! :D
 * Great catch by the way! -Winter123 05:57, 10 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Hmm... that's way cool! First of all, an AoI I didn't declare (wtf?!) and, it came from ntohing! Chances are likely low, but man, it is impressive. Cyclone1 (14:17 UTC -10/08/2007)
 * GODDANGIT! All the fun stuff happens when I'm away! But, yeah, not only does the NHC seem completely oblivious to it, but it's there, it's strong, and I think it's rotating. This one might have a shot.
 * Now, can someone please tell me how Chantal was? 68.100.190.56
 * Aw, it's nowhere to be seen anymore? Gone as quickly as it came up/. -Winter123 18:53, 10 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Oh it's there, but the shear tore it apart and scattered its remains across the north Atlantic. -- SkyFury 21:45, 10 August 2007 (UTC)

Just a blob. Gone, likely not coming back. Cyclone1 (22:03 UTC -10/08/2007)


 * That's one wierd looking blob. Not looking like much now, but still, it should be dying, right? (Not trying to imply anything). It's not going to develop, but it's not going away either... 68.100.190.56

AoI: Wave about to come off africa at ~10N
Many, if not all models agree we will see a Tropical Storm just off the coast of Africa by Monday. This could be our storm to start the Cape Verde Season! *crosses fingers* -Winter123 05:52, 10 August 2007 (UTC)

Could someone please post a link to where you all go to look at the development models? Is this just from WeatherUnderground, FNMOC, or are there some really cool sites that I'm unaware of? 134.163.255.11 14:19, 10 August 2007 (UTC)


 * You mean something like this? Anyway, conditions ahead of this wave are really favorable for development. This could be very interesting. Cyclone1 (14:22 UTC -10/08/2007)


 * Either the models have forgottent their ocean couplings again (*cough*Ioke*cough*) or there is something strange out there that I cannot see. 68.100.190.56


 * Yeah it looks like it's being eaten away on the north side by dry air just like all the others. I can't see this developing anymore... -Winter123 18:51, 10 August 2007 (UTC)
 * If that bundle of showers gains any organization by the time it reaches the Windward Islands, call me, but until then, I'm not all that impressed. I've seen tons of waves just like this one look quite good coming off of Africa but then just break apart as soon as they pass the Cape Verdes. -- SkyFury 21:52, 10 August 2007 (UTC)

No dry air. At all. None. Zip. Every model, (please take special notice on the word every) develops this. It'll be interesting. Cyclone1 (21:59 UTC -10/08/2007)


 * Plenty of shear though . This wave's under 30-40 knots of it. That's pretty fierce. -- SkyFury 03:36, 11 August 2007 (UTC)


 * ARGH! THIS THING WON'T LET ME POST, BUT IF THIS GETS THROUGH, IT'S LOOKING PRETTY NICE GODDARNIT! Hold on, did this get through? Ok then, it is (look on meteosat for East Africa) looking pretty nice. 68.100.190.56


 * Hm it does look pretty good. Keep an eye on this it might be a TD in 24 hours if it keeps looking like this. On that note, I'm off. -Winter123 07:51, 11 August 2007 (UTC)

It's been firing deep convection for a while now (~12 hrs). That's persistence. 90L should be classified at anytime. Cyclone1 (12:56 UTC -11/08/2007)


 * Interestingly enough, the models are seeming less ecstatic the more this thing develops. I put it as a TS going into the Carribean, curving ever so slightly to the north. The major models, however, agree than an area of low pressure will develop of the coast of Africa (this does not count that last one, Ukmet, because as far as I can tell it has a mental retardation problem;, it does make a low, just doesn't close it off) and move into the central Atlantic at least at TS strength. As we've seen earlier this season (we have, trust me) the models do often underpredict, so I predict Dean, maximum cat 2, minimum TS. It's looking that good, that consistently. By the way, the NHC has recognized it, and as a "High-amplitude tropical wave", so it must mean that they've decided it's time to give up their vacation and start working again (has anyone else noticed they don't show much excitement in their updates?).68.100.190.56


 * There already is a low off the coast. It's now a development game. I predict this could be a potential threat for Puerto Rico, and eventually Florida. Cyclone1 (16:57 UTC -11/08/2007)

90L.INVEST
The official Navy site is down, but it's on the back up. Behold 90L! Picture won't show up, I hope it's for the Africa wave. Cyclone1 (19:23 UTC -11/08/2007)
 * Ok, the link doesn't work, but trust me it's up. Cyclone1 (19:30 UTC -11/08/2007)
 * Quikscat shows a closed low! Tropical Depression by definition (kinda). Cyclone1 (22:04 UTC -11/08/2007)


 * Latest TWO: A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
 * Ahh, sh*t! I do not like the sound of that. The wave looks pretty unassuming right now but that's one of the things I don't like. A lot of feared names have formed the exact same way. Of course, so have a lot of fish-spinners but still, that's the Devil's Breeding Ground out there. -- SkyFury 23:19, 11 August 2007 (UTC)

GFDL and HWRF both develop this into at least a category two. HWRF, possible three. Cyclone1 (01:00 UTC -12/08/2007)


 * More important, where is it going? The tracking model site I've been using isn't working, so that adds to the discomfort. If it wants to turn out to sea and strengthen into a Category 4, I'd love to see it. That stuff's fun to watch, but I don't want it to get big and hit a place where it can hurt people. -- SkyFury 02:24, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The last time periods for the model show it just at the Virgin Islands. Judging by the location of the Bermuda High, it's likely start curving to the northwest shortly thereafter. Won't know for at least a couple of days (if it does turn into a hurricane) if it would threaten anybody. Wxdiva 03:05, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Hmm, that's interesting, thanks. -- SkyFury 03:09, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It could recurve easily though...but still I can definitely see (major?) Hurricane Dean coming out of this... CrazyC83 03:17, 12 August 2007 (UTC)

It's not recurving. Cyclone1 (14:18 UTC -12/08/2007)
 * The latest TWO says a tropical depression could form later today! The Cape Verde season is open for business. Cyclone1 (15:07 UTC -12/08/2007)


 * And it could get quite uncomfor06:07, 13 August 2007 (UTC)table if this thing develops and heads for the Virgins like Wxdiva said. There have been four Deans, only one was a hurricane (1989). The Atlantic's still waiting for its first. All other northern hemisphere basins have had at least one, in fact all northern hemisphere basins have had a major hurricane form (Gonu, Yutu, Man-Yi, Usagi and Flossie), the ATL's holdin' up the show. -- SkyFury 18:28, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * If all the models I looked at this morning hold true, it just might. Is there any site that gives a general idea of sea surface temperatures? Wxdiva 21:19, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Answered my own question.... Posted for your convenience! Wxdiva 21:39, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The satellite picture continues to improve. I would imagine if the current organization lasts or gets just a little bit better that a depression will be declared. Right now it looks pretty darn good. -- SkyFury 23:02, 12 August 2007 (UTC)

NHC says a TD could form at anytime. $100 bucks says 11:00pm upgrade. Cyclone1 (23:08 UTC -12/08/2007)


 * Hey, I'd love to be $100 ahead but I'm a simple, low income man and don't bet that high. I've learned that very little is a slam dunk in the tropics. I've seen things seemingly right on the verge of forming mysteriously fall apart and not amount to anything. We shall see what 11 pm brings. -- SkyFury 23:46, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Slightly off-topic: The meteorologist on the local news said that if this does form into a hurricane, but turns into a fish-spinner, it would drive some cooler air into the country. Proof that hurricanes are good sometimes. (I for one am tired of the Midwest feeling like a sauna) Wxdiva 00:55, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, I was out roaming around Atlantic Canada for the past 5 days, and I was pretty surprised to see 90L looking so good. It's entering a very low shear area with warm SST's, and it's outflow is very nice. I also expect Tropical Depression Four at least by 5:30 tomorrow. Probably 10:30 tonight. Cainer91 00:59, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Uhh, are you kidding me? Now that's a beautiful part of the world. I'd almost give my right arm to be in Lockeport, Nova Scotia right now. Instead I gotta get up tomorrow at 6:45 in the morning and make the 45 minute drive to school. That's a depressing thought. Wind shear is aparently hindering development of 90L right now although I keep seeing more bright colors on the IR every time I look. -- SkyFury 02:48, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Where did anyone say anything about Nova Scotia? Anyway, yeah, not much new to say. Just have to agree with everyone else; it's looking pretty damn good! Bob rulz 06:06, 13 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Nevermind, I think I see what you were saying. It just didn't quite connect. Anyway, this is offtopic, so I'll stop now. Bob rulz 06:07, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Gone from the navy site... RoswellAtup 12:17, 13 August 2007 (UTC)

04L.NONAME
Models initialize it as TD4. Should be official soon. -- WmE 12:57, 13 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, I lost $100 bucks, but hey. We'll still have a depression by 11. Cyclone1 (13:35 UTC -13/08/2007)


 * It's official now... TD4... NOAA even brings this depression into a Cat. 2 hurricane in 5 days... RoswellAtup 14:58, 13 August 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
Now up on the NHC site. Forecast to reach 90 knots in 5 days. This thing is dangerous. Cainer91 15:00, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I'm betting that it would dissipate in the next 24 hours RoswellAtup 15:17, 13 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Wanna bet money? 100 bucks says that this will NOT dissipate. I need my money back. Amyway, it's looking like it could be wanting to take an Ivan-esque path... O_O Cyclone1 (16:56 UTC -13/08/2007)
 * Oh man, it looks like the Atlantic is about to quit playing nice. The current forecast path is very similar to that of Georges in 1998, which killed 600 people and who knows what it's going to do after that. We could have a very dangerous hurricane in the central Caribbean by the end of the week. -- SkyFury 20:27, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * it's now disorganized {http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi} RoswellAtup 22:16, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Not anymore! Looking very good! Possibly Dean by 11. Cyclone1 (01:53 UTC -14/08/2007)


 * Not yet upgraded... betcha it will dissipate in the next 48 hours RoswellAtup 7:42, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Quikscat shows a few 55kt barbs near the center. Bethca it won't dissipate in the next 48 hours. Cyclone1 (11:47 UTC -14/08/2007)

Tropical Storm Dean
And it's now official - we have a D. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:08, 14 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, and with the D, models are no longer calling for a recurve. Cyclone1 (16:30 UTC -14/08/2007)
 * This one is making a lot of people nervous, including me. -- SkyFury 18:42, 14 August 2007 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Yep. Located in the Yucatan Strait at the moment. Looks very marginal; but it does seem to be consolidating more and more. We'll see what the 10:30 advisory says about it. Cainer91 14:32, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Could Erin come out from this one? RoswellAtup 14:40, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, it's tough to say right now, but it does have several things going for it: the ULL that was inhibiting development is moving away, shear is low, and SST's are practically boiling. However, right now it's just a trough of low pressure: no LLC or anything, just an area of convection. However, if it moves slowly enough, it is possible that it could develop. Cainer91 14:55, 13 August 2007 (UTC)
 * I'm saying that this needs to be watched closer than TD4 right now. WE could get TD5 from this before all is said and done. Cyclone1 (16:58 UTC -13/08/2007)

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. From the TWO. Could we get 2 depressions today?! Cyclone1 (17:01 UTC -13/08/2007)


 * The Atlantic has awakened. If this thing wants to come up through the Panhandle and into Georgia, I'd welcome it. We desperately need some cooling off down here. -- SkyFury 20:29, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Sorry Eric, it's a Texan. Cyclone1 (20:49 UTC -13/08/2007)


 * NRL has 91L almost as strong as Tropical Depression Four: 30 knots and 1006 mbars. But, there is literally one thunderstorm, so it's not a tropical depression yet. But watch out when the convection does start to build. Cainer91 02:12, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It's sort of runnin' outta water. The Gulf Coast isn't that far. Cyclone1 seems to think it's headed to Texas, but it lookes to me like it's going north. -- 24.98.83.29 02:35, 14 August 2007 (UTC)

TCFA issued. Jake52 My talk 06:06, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * What's a TCFA? RoswellAtup 07:21, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Most, if not all of the models bring it to Texas, it's not just me. Cyclone1 (11:45 UTC -14/08/2007)


 * It's looking very good, and there's no doubt in my mind that it will be upgraded to Tropical Depression Five at the 5:30 update. Thunderstorm activity is consolidating, it's moving slow enough, and the SST's and shear are perfect. There isn't really anything to stop it. Lucky that it only has a couple of days to intensify. Cainer91 15:54, 14 August 2007 (UTC)

Yeah, the latest TWO, says a TD may be forming. Cyclone1 (16:33 UTC -14/08/2007)
 * Well in the gulf these couple of days can be enough to create a pretty potent storm, or even a hurricane. -- WmE 18:04, 14 August 2007 (UTC)

INVEST reports
Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC)