Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future Start
Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors.  “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, Steven  09876  ✉  20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC)

Here are my Atlantic basin predictions:

8 tropical depressions, 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season.   Steve  820  ✉   21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops  3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not  like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC)

Not sure this is bad or not.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC)

The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :)  Steve  820  ✉   20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * 15 more days!  Steve  820  ✉   20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling.


 * Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something.  Steve  820  ✉   21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * 4 days left...  Steve  820  ✉   23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * 3 more days!  Steve  820  ✉   00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * 2 days left!! :D  Steve  820  ✉   22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area
 * leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang!  Steve  820  ✉   03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC)

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is now open!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:02, June 1, 2014 (UTC)

Re-analysis
Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. Ryan1000 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. Ryan1000 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC)

AOI:South Carolina
Random low near Charlotte has a 0/20% chance.-- Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:12, June 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * According to Dr. Master's latest WUnderblog post, this one might have a chance of developing early next week, with only moderate 10-20 knot shear in the area just off the Carolinas on the U.S. East Coast. I don't expect it to become much if it does develop, maybe a minimal TS out to sea, but if it doesn't develop before July, it'll finally end the longest streak of storms forming in June or earlier in the Atlantic (every year from 2005-2013 had a storm of some intensity form in the Atlantic in June or earlier). Ryan1000 20:49, June 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * I expect some very gradual development of the system, no stronger than a weak tropical storm at most. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:51, June 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm also thinking of a weak to moderate TS from this storm. Hopefully the struggling Atlantic finally produces a named storm soon, possibly out of this low! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:32, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Please, become a TD or a hurricane (as long as the latter is out to sea), but nothing in between! I'm tired of the name Arthur always going to weak storms. I can go a little while longer without a named storm in the ATL if it means Arthur having a fair shot at hurricane strength. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:14, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Up to 30% (50%). I predict an Arthur out of this, but like Dylan said, I hope it doesn't peak as a tropical storm. I really, really hope we see a hurricane out of this, since I'm not a fan of weak depressions and especially not a fan of weakling TS's that steal/hijack a name off the list. This needs to be a hurricane! Come on AOI, try your hardest and don't peak as a weak TS or a depression! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:04, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Expect tropical storm Arthur or tropical depression 1 by tomorrow afternoon when the airplane of the NHC reach it.Allanjeffs 17:15, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * For the ones that want a hurricane out of this you might get your chance as the Euro now shows a hurricane entering the Carolinas out of this, it might occur if the system doesn't make landfall in Florida first before recurving,and there is plenty of warm water in the East coast so its not impossible we get hurricane Arthur out of this.Allanjeffs 18:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
This AOI has been designated Invest 91L per Wunderground. Although showers and thunderstorms are rather disorganized, conditions will likely be conductive for additional development over the next few days. Its chances of formation have risen to 40% for the next two days and 60% for the next five. The Gulf Stream temperatures are slightly above average, wind shear is moderate, and dry air should not impose Invest 91L's development. Allan, I definitely think this invest has a very good shot at becoming a tropical storm, but poor King Arthur's non-hurricane streak may continue. This invest is rather close to land to become a hurricane, let alone in late June. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:53, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

You will be surprise of how many storms have give us surprising Andrew in the past, I am just saying look for example at Beryl she almost became a hurricane approaching Florida. If the system can come close to Florida but then turn away and move out to sea we may have a shot at seeing our first hurricane. Btw shear is not going to be a problem as an anticyclone is forming over our system.Allanjeffs 22:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Should it become a depression or Arthur before July 1, the streak of early-season storms will be 9 years. I don't expect this to do much intensity-wise, although there have been quite a few surprises thus far this year in EPac, and I wouldn't be surprised if this one surprises us too. My guess is it would probably become a 60-65 mph storm at best, but I'm not calling for a hurricane just yet. Ryan1000 12:30, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's up to 60% (80%), here comes Arthur! :D I think there's an outside shot at hurricane status but I wouldn't count on it. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:52, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Some Tweets by Anthony Siciliano (@Ants_SNEweather) show model guidance that indicates potential New England impacts just in time for Independence Day. I don't know about you guys, but as much as I respect the power of Mother Nature, I do not appreciate her raining on my 4th of July festivities. Back off, future Arthur! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:39, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * St. Augustine radar shows Invest 91L is gradually becoming better organized. Although a spin and spiral rainbands are becoming more pronounced, wind shear of 5 to 10 knots ad dry air are suffocating the northern quadrant of the system. By late Tuesday, however, conditions could become much more favorable for a tropical storm to develop. HWRF crashes Invest 91L into Florida on Tuesday, while GFS, UKMET and the Euro model keep it offshore. Regardless, rainfall of a few inches are expected for much of the southern East Coast over the next couple of days. Dylan, only one ensemble model smashes this invest into New England per Wunderground, so you should be good for now. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:40, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * There is actually a good chance for a subtropical storm to form, suggested by GFDL and HWRF, with a path similar to Cristobal 08. It should sink south then loop back and recurve into the gulf stream, I think it will peak in the 30-40kt range. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:02, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict it'll become Arthur tomorrow or Tuesday. Hopefully it won't threaten the east coast so much, and like Dylan said, I hope it won't ruin 4th of July festivities! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:04, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 60% (80%) and a bit disorganized, hopefully it becomes Arthur soon. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft should investigate it this afternoon to see if a depression or Arthur has formed by then. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:20, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Aw, latest NHC discussion said it was so close. 80% for the next two and 5 days, it'll probably become Arthur by tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:32, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * The longer future-Arthur waits to form, the farther offshore it will go, the less my 4th of July weather will suck. Arthur can wait. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:01, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wheather this becomes Arthur or not its going to bring a lot of rain to all the NE coast.Allanjeffs 00:16, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) HurricaneSpin, I wish that would be Arthur-to-be's peak intensity, but I have a bad feeling it will get much stronger than that. I wanted the first-ever Hurricane Arthur this year; I think I'm about to get a lesson to be careful what I wish for, lol. Unusually high SSTs lie offshore the East Coast, and atmospheric conditions are expected to improve over the next few days. My intensity forecast calls for a 75-knot Category 1 Hurricane Arthur. As far as the track goes, there are a lot of options open. It could strike the Carolinas dead-on and ride up the East Coast from there, a la Hanna '08 and Gaston '04; or it could flirt with the Outer Banks and either a.) pass just offshore Cape Cod and the Islands, a la Earl '10, or b.) make a bee line for Rhode Island, a la Bob (though likely, hopefully, much weaker; this, by the way, is the scenario predicted by the 18z run of the HWRF). Anywhere in between is possible. This is not looking like anything for the record books, but it could still potentially impact a lot of people at a very busy time of year. Screw Douglas, it's failing miserably. Screw Elida, it might get stronger but it shouldn't do too much. The impending Independence Day cyclone is the only tropical event I'm concerned about right now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:24, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Models are now going up in intesity with this but they are a lot of factors to play, first if it makes landfall in Florida or NC, It could make landfall in the outer banks or pass very close, that would be good for the NE region because it would make the system weaker but it would be bad for NC. We need to see this first become a td or ts and then see from there, but I really believe this have a shot at becoming our first hurricane.Allanjeffs 01:19, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, I understand where your bad feeling is coming from, but I don't think Arthur would become as bad as you described (hopefully). The worst case scenario right now would be the Euro run, which traps the first trough to pass through with a ridge building in between, giving 91L lots of time to strengthen before it gets picked up by a second trough. This scenario brings a strong TS up the Carolinas into the East Coast like Hanna as you described. However, it is much more likely for the first trough to pick up Arthur by Wednesday, leaving less time for the storm to deepen. This track bring Arthur out to sea as a minimal TS. An upper level high NW of 91L will likely diffuse, leaving less shear for a storm to brew. The general model consensus for where Arthur will be on the 4th of July is anywhere between the open Atlantic to Cape Hatteras and westwards inland the Carolinas, which could be troublesome. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:51, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

(←) (Edit conflict) Man, Invest 91L is really close to becoming a tropical cyclone. Only a little more organization is needed for a tropical depression to come. However, dry air is penetrating the heart of this system. 91L is expected to meander offshore Florida in a southwestwards direction at 5 mph until Thursday, when a trough will drag it northwards towards the Carolinas. There are many uncertainties with the forecast. If the invest makes landfall over Florida, land interaction will halt any development. However, since 91L is over the Gulf Stream, our first July hurricane in six years could be possible later this week. Rains of two to four inches, possibly up to eight inches, will affect the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas this week. Dylan, I think you are getting a little too extreme with 91L. Although GFS and the Euro model smash it into South Carolina on Thursday, due to dry air, wind shear, and land interaction, the invest will likely at worse reach 50 knots (60 mph), so you should be good for now. You might get some rain, but I doubt anything like Bob or Carol. The NHC keep the invest's chances for formation at 80% for the next two and five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:06, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One
First TD of the year.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Happy Canada Day and hurricane season, everyone! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:00, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Forming on 03Z July 1st means that we break the 10 year active July streak! - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  03:03, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Predicted to peak around 60kt, just shy of hurricane status. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  03:07, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Might be our first hurricane after all and the first time Arthur might be a hurricane. btw happy hurricane season and first day of July in your area. Its still June 30 in Honduras.Btw as this is an El Niño expect this area to be where the majority of the activity will be.Allanjeffs 03:44, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yay, we finally got a new depression! Since it appearently formed at the very start of July 1 in UTC time looks like this is the first Atlantic season since 2004 to not have a tropical cyclone in June. Hopefully he becomes a hurricane so it'll be the first time the name "Arthur" would be used for a hurricane. Happy hurricane season, and I know it's off-topic but also, happy Canada Day and the start of July! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   04:42, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * NHC now forecasting a hurricane. The name Arthur might be finally given to a hurricane. Sorry for the ones that live NC up.Allanjeffs 08:48, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is not good news, 5AM adv predicts a hurricane by 7/4 right off the Outer Banks. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  09:02, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, it's not going to be too bad, NHC only sees it clipping the outer banks as a cat 1, it's not like NC hasn't seen something like that before. However, if Arthur hits NC as a hurricane, it'll be the first to do so in July since Bertha in 1996. It'll also be the first hurricane Arthur ever, and will leave Ana and Beryl as the only storms that never became hurricanes every time since they were used since 1979. Ryan1000 12:13, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Arthur
Just in from NHC. 35 kts, 1007 mbar, expected to peak at 70 kts while skimming the Outer Banks. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:16, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * From @wxtrackercody on Twitter: "Data from recon: flight-level winds near 70 mph, surface winds near 60 mph; rain-rate <0.4"/hr so not rain-contaminated." What... we'll wait and see what the NHC says shortly, but if that measurement is reliable then Arthur could break its bad luck streak much sooner than expected. Also, I should mention that the GFDL is currently predicting a decently intense hurricane with a pressure in the low 970s passing very close to the Cape and Islands late on July 4 local time (early July 5 UTC). This could get hairy if that model run turns out to be correct. In response to earlier comments, maybe I'm being a little overzealous, maybe I'm not looking closely enough at the environmental factors in Arthur's path, but I don't think Arthur will go away without impacting anyone in the process and I want to consider the worst-case scenarios here. Do I think Arthur will be a re-Bob or Carol? No, but it's not impossible. A re-Earl or a weaker rendition of Alex '04 is more likely IMO, which would result in a less-than-severe impact in New England, which I call home, but I'm still keeping a close eye on this thing. It's not often that a tropical system approaches my homeland this early in the season; of course I'd get excited. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:43, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ok, so the latest NHC advisory settles for a middle ground between sanity and the aforementioned recon findings. 45 kts/1003 mbar now, with a forecast peak of 80 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:54, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * If Arthur can establish its center RI might occur with this system. NC should be prepare if Arthur continues to strength at this pace. cat 2 is not out of the question and cat 3 is not looking that impossible as of now.Allanjeffs 21:06, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Tropical storm watches are up for much of the Florida coast. Sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (81 km/h) have been reported in Grand Bahama Island. Rainfall of one to three inches is expected across Eastern Florida and two to four inches across the northern Bahamas. Swells affecting large portions of Florida from Arthur will spread northwards into Georgia by Wednesday. Dylan, the recon flight may not have the best estimate of Arthur's winds because they were bounced around by very strong thunderstorms in the circulation. Being steered by a trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic region northwestwards for now, a second subtropical ridge should accelerate the storm northeastwards towards the Carolinas and New England in the next four to five days. The current NHC forecast resembles the TCVA model forecast. Unfortunately, the vertical wind shear which has been keeping Arthur in check will soon dissipate in about 48 hours, leaving just dry air to stop the system. Moreover, as the core of Arthur is moistening, the NHC expect the system to reach 80 knots (90 mph) while over the warm SST's of the Gulf Stream. Luckily, by Independence Day, wind shear will increase and SST's will decrease, prompting gradual weakening. Dylan, I wish you a strong survival in the wrath of Arthur. For now, you might just get some gale-force winds. Allan, I think Arthur will very likely become a hurricane, but an intensity on the level of Bertha '96 or '08 seems a little out of the question in my opinion due to land interaction, as you state. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:53, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now that means more people will be posting memes all over 4chan about the storm and that weasel-rat thing. Oh wait- it's an aardvark... Anyway... I must say that this is actually pretty impressive knowing that how everyone thought this season would be a bust.. but I was pretty surprised to see the King himself making his way up the US of A! Enjoy your expedition, King Arthur.  “i liek turtlez 23:14, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hate to admit, it, but you may be right Allan, Arthur looks like he'll redeem himself quite a bit with the latest appearance he has on sattelite imagery. If it keeps organizing at this rate, it could even become a hurricane by late tomorrow or Thursday instead of Friday, though I don't think it's peak will be past cat 2. Also, with the expected increase in intensity, Arthur might miss the outer banks of North Carolina and not do much other than bring some rain and surf, which would be a lot better than a full-fledged landfall. And Andrew, Arthur has been fighting the dry air north of him rather nicely so far, that might not even be a hindrance to his intensification to a hurricane. Ryan1000 01:48, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict it'll peak as a strong Cat. 1 or a weak Cat. 2 (between 85-100 mph). Hopefully it won't be a very bad storm for the east coast, and it shouldn't be a re-Bob or a re-Carol. It's also a bit surprising to see a potential hurricane riding up the east coast in time for 4th of July festivities. Hopefully it won't ruin 4th of July along the east coast! If it does, they might chose to celebrate it on the 5th or 6th instead. Luckily I live in SoCal, so we'll have a sunny 4th of July without any major storm threatening! RI isn't out of the question for Arthur IMO, but it should only peak as a Cat. 2 or even a weak Cat. 3 at very most. Dylan, hopefully you'll be safe from the storm, and pray for it to not ruin your 4th of July! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   02:15, July 2, 2014 (UTC)

Arthur's looking pretty healthy today. Convection is wrapping around an apparent eye-like feature; it seems like Arthur is trying to wall off the dry air to its north. It's still affecting the storm somewhat - the outflow is restricted on the north side - but it seems as though Arthur's winning against it, as Ryan mentioned above. The intensity has been pretty stable since last night - it's currently at 50 kts/997 mbar - but that should change soon. The current forecast for Arthur to reach hurricane strength tomorrow is reasonable. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:45, July 2, 2014 (UTC)

Arthur has strength base on the ATCF  and now has winds of 65mph but it looks to strength more as NHC planes are flying over the system. For some reason the models have trend west and now our best model the Euro makes Arthur to hit NC. Models are now predicting a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2. looks like NC fireworks might be ruin sorry for them but safety first.Allanjeffs 18:58, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Almost there... 60 kts/992 mbar. Hurricane Warning up for NC from Surf City northward to Duck. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hurricane watches are up between Little River Inlet and Surf City. Tropical storm warnings are up for the South Carolina coast north of the South Santee River, West Ablemarle Sound, and from Duck City north to Cape Charles Light in Virginia. Gale-force and hurricane-force conditions are expected in the warning areas by Thursday evening. Vast portions of the Carolinas could be under two to four feet of water if Arthur strikes at high tide. Additional rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected for eastern Florida and the Bahamas, with two to four inches of rain (maybe even six) expected for much of coastal North Carolina by Friday. Hazardous surf and rip current conditions are affecting the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas, which will spread northwards to Georgia and the Carolinas over the next few days. NOAA and Air Force renaissance data indicate the wind field radius of 80 miles (130 km) is gradually expanding and Arthur is continuing to put on strength. As a matter of fact, I would call the structure of this closer to that of a 70-75 knot hurricane instead of a 60 knot tropical storm. Dylan, in my opinion, the only reason Arthur is not a hurricane just yet is because of some dry air still interacting with its circulation. But with weak wind shear and warm SST's, Arthur could easily break its weak streak as soon as the 0000Z update. ECMWF and GFS continue to expand the storm's core before potential landfall over North Carolina. Weak flow from a subtropical ridge is currently steering Arthur northwards, but it should begin acceleration to the northeast in about 24 hours due to a mid-latitude southwesterly flow. The NHC forecast now calls for Arthur to come dangerously close to the North Carolina coast (a la Ophelia '05 or Alex '04) and reach a peak intensity of 75 knots (85 mph). Liz, I would not cheer Arthur right now. His expedition will be very eventful for much of the U.S. East Coast. Stay safe, Dylan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:48, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * For those who are curious, here is where you can find a visual of potential storm surge impact from Arthur. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:52, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow, this thing is looking impressive. If it continues to organize, strong cat 1 or even cat 2 might not be out of the question before it makes landfall in NC. Luckily, it'll be moving fast when it nears NC, so it won't be over land for very long, maybe 3-6 hours before moving back out to sea. But after 30 years of failing, Arthur is finally going to redeem himself as the first Hurricane Arthur in history. Hopefully the folks in NC are evacuating by now, this might be dangerous for parts of the outer banks. Ryan1000 22:23, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * I will probably get the outer bands of Arthur, meaning high surf and most likely some rain where   I live. Also, I wouldn't rule out rapid intensification right now, as it may very well happen if Arthur   gets its act together to be able to do so. HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 22:21, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wait, Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) also lives in the east coast and might be affected by Arthur! Are you trying to impersonate him? With your very similar username and claimed location...but, guess what? You'll never be like Dylan! There's only one Dylan and that's HurricaneMaker99! Either you should get a username change, or continue to impersonate and risk being blocked, it's up to you. Anyways, Arthur should be a hurricane by the next advisory. It's lookin' very good! I predict a strong Cat. 1 out of Arthur before land interaction with the east coast will weaken it. They'll get all soaked on 4th of July looks like! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:31, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Damn straight, Steven! I've already reported him to Ryan, FWIW. I don't know if you've seen the impostor's post in the EPAC retirement predictions, but he basically paraphrased my predictions and posted them right below mine. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:34, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * And yes, I'll be shocked if Arthur isn't upgraded to a hurricane at the 8pm interim advisory. There's just too much supporting data coming from recon to declare otherwise. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:36, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * FWIW, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Hatteras Island is under a mandatory evacuation. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:46, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I've seen his EPac retirements post. I think he should be banned from this wiki until/or if he stops impersonating. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:49, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think that first post pretty clearly demonstrated his intentions lol. Anyway, the oh-so-conservative NHC kept Arthur as a tropical storm. Shocker! Same winds as before, pressure down to 990 mbar. If Arthur isn't upgraded at 11pm then something is seriously wrong here. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:01, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, scratch that, doesn't look as impressive as it did earlier. Last night is repeating itself in that the dry air is having a better time wrapping itself into Arthur's core. Could still become a hurricane tomorrow, though. EDIT: Pressure down to 988 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:44, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

July
Welcome to July in the Atlantic! For the first time in 10 years, we made it to the end of June with no tropical cyclone forming. But that is not to last. Right above my post, you can see that Invest 91L is bound to become a tropical cyclone very soon. Nevertheless, I predict a quieter July compared to 2011 or even 2013 - just 1 tropical depression and 1 tropical storm with an ACE of ~2.6 (give or take 2). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:23, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict 2 storms with 1 of them becoming a hurricane. The one that I predict will become a hurricane is the currently active TD One. The other storm I predict will form in mid-late July (around July 18-20) and be a moderate to strong TS. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   04:45, July 1, 2014 (UTC)