Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season/Bud

AOI: Following Aletta
Probably will become a stronger storm than Aletta. Maybe even hurricane a few days out. 10% atm. Yqt1001 21:57, May 15, 2012 (UTC)

Agree probably a cat 2 or 3 hurricane.Allanjeffs 23:07, May 15, 2012 (UTC)

My gosh! It's only two days in the season, and we have a potential candidate for Tropical Depression Two-E? That sounds like the beginning of an active season. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:58, May 16, 2012 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and up to 20%. Yqt1001 12:24, May 16, 2012 (UTC)

Medium 30% &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:52, May 16, 2012 (UTC)

Not only does this storm have a chance to beat Aletta in terms of strength, but there are a fair number of models that take this storm slamming into southern Mexico over the next few days. The folks there better be careful of this thing (future Bud). Hopefully it won't get too strong. Also, if this storm does become Bud, it would mark only the third time in EPac history that two storms formed in May. The other times that happened were in 1971 and 2007(though 2007, on the flip side, had no storms form in June). Ryan1000 02:27, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

Still at 30%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:49, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

Probaly be cat 2 or 3 hurricane.Allanjeffs 02:59, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 40%Allanjeffs 23:55, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe a C1 hurricane, Allanjeffs. Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:58, May 18, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 20%Allanjeffs 18:08, May 18, 2012 (UTC)

It appears to be losing itself, maybe it won't develop more than a minimal hurricane over the next few days. A little on topic, NHC says that TWC hurricane expert Dr. Rick Knabb will be the director of the National Hurricane Center when Bill Read retires on June 4. Ryan1000 20:44, May 18, 2012 (UTC)

It looks better than never a 40% chance I am saying in the next TWO.Allanjeffs 22:00, May 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Down to 20% looks like it has trouble organizing Allanjeffs 16:34, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe Bud won't come so soon after all. It still may become a TS, but probrably will not become a hurricane now. Ryan1000 19:55, May 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Back to 40%. YE Tropical Cyclone  12:38, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa, it looks better now. Maybe I spoke too soon. 92E looks like it will become Bud tomorrow or Tuesday, but I still don't know about hurricane strength. Ryan1000 13:21, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Why not? Models go nuts with this thingy? YE Tropical Cyclone  16:18, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Probably the first hurricane of the season.Allanjeffs 16:53, May 20, 2012 (UTC)

It just doesn't look like that so much now. I would have expected to see a hurricane from this storm by now, but I guess it's really taking it's time to organize. By now I would have expected to see at least a strong TS, but it's sitting over that warm water to organize some more before it heads west. Ryan1000 18:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * 60%! "...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD." --HurricaneMaker99 21:39, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Bud is coming people prepare for it.Allanjeffs 21:45, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * It is becoming tightly packed... I think it'll turn into Bud and then run off into the wind.CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * The bad thing with these storm is that many models bring to a landfall at Mexico as a hurricane.Allanjeffs 22:26, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * A ship wreck is also likely, sadly. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:58, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * 80%! Yqt1001 23:58, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM TONIGHT OR MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

YE Tropical Cyclone  00:00, May 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Whopee! - THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:59, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think we got a 2E: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_pregen_sat/PUBLIC/tc_pages/pages/tc12/EPAC/92E.INVEST/amsub/color/2degreeticks/full/20120520.2026.noaa19.x.color_89_150.92EINVEST.25kts-1006mb-90N-983W.74pc.html

I don't like the looks of this thing... I hoped it wouldn't do much at all, but now it looks like we could see our season's first major hurricane. If it does, Bud would be only one of 3 major hurricanes to develop in May in the EPac, after Adolph of 2001 and Alma of 2002. Furthermore, we could have the most active May on record if the AOI ↓behind this becomes Carlotta before the month is out. Ryan1000 01:53, May 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
Up on ATCF. 30kts, 1005mb. Probably will be the first NHem hurricane, SHIPS lists it as having a good chance at RI in 48 hours also. Yqt1001 01:54, May 21, 2012 (UTC)

Darn you beat me anyway we have two-EAllanjeffs 01:55, May 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * I didn't see this coming. Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:01, May 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now officially TD 2-E. Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:42, May 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Why not, C10? YE Tropical Cyclone  02:56, May 21, 2012 (UTC)

So we have 2E soon to be Hurricane Bud. Its supposed to be the first land falling system this year in the EPAC or ATL. If the AOI trailing 2E becomes Carlotta in a hurry we could be hoisting a record. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:05, May 21, 2012 (UTC)

Doubt ithe AOI will form its too close to future Bud, Carlotta will have to wait.Allanjeffs 03:12, May 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * TD-2 is one of the southern tropical cyclones I have seen on this basin.Allanjeffs 03:42, May 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * As far as i'm concerned, I believe Jimena of 1979 has the record of farthest south any storm developed in EPac. Including CPac, Ekeka and Hali were very nearly the same in latitude. Alma of 2008 is the Easternmost ever. Anyways, the folks near Zihuatanejo better be preparing for this. It could possibly peak as a C2 or even C3. Ryan1000 03:48, May 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Why wouldn't the AOI form, but give it a few days like 92E. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:03, May 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bud
And here is the second named storm of the 2012 PHS. This is now only the third time since 1949 in which two tropical storms formed in EPac during May. Ryan1000 10:22, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Also, this is how early Bud formed: "WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUD...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD FOR THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IT SURPASSES THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST DATE OF MAY 29." Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:22, May 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * That statement is incorrect if you lump CPAC storms in, Bud would be the second earliest second named storm. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  12:56, May 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * The western flank of Bud is pretty big. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:45, May 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * In addition the models are weaker. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:51, May 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looking better now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:44, May 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Even if the models don't suggest it or the NHC doesn't predict it, personally I don't like the looks of Bud. It looks like some ominous storm in the making. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:11, May 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gah, Bud's slacking. Still 40 mph/1004 mbar, and from the latest NHC discussion: "THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE." Screw you too, buddy! --HurricaneMaker99 02:53, May 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * At least it won't be too much of a wind problem in Mexico, but it'll still be a heavy rain maker. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:59, May 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Nothing in compare to last season Carlotta will probable develop early June.Allanjeffs 03:17, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

Bud finally got it's act together and a bunch of people are saying he has commenced a rapid intensification. ATCF shows him at 55 kts at the next update. Yqt1001 13:26, May 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * About time Bud started intensifying. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:13, May 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Finally!!! probably our first hurricane of the season now, or later today.Allanjeffs 18:08, May 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa, I half-expected Bud to be dead by now - for a minute there, he was looking so much like an EPAC Gaston or <insert storm from 2011 AHS here>. Looks like we might get a hurricane from Bud after all... new advisory in just a few minutes, though he might be kept at 65 mph with a slight drop in pressure per the ATCF file. --HurricaneMaker99 20:39, May 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Apparently the "insert here" bit was taken literally, lol. --HurricaneMaker99 01:03, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep, 65 mph/995 mbar it is. The latest forecast/advisory just went up. --HurricaneMaker99 20:42, May 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wonder... is it going to be like an Alex 2010 or Ike 2008 (huge with non-correlating wind speeds) or just a correlated storm? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:52, May 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * (Don't forget Irene!) I doubt it, TBH. My general impression is that EPAC storms have slightly higher pressures than those in the Atlantic. Take Linda and Wilma, for example. Strongest storms in their respective basins, both had the same wind speeds (185 mph), but Wilma was some 20 mbar deeper. Consider also that the EPAC has never had a storm below 900 mbar (Linda came closest at 902 mbar); the Atlantic has had five (Wilma, Gilbert, Labor Day, Rita, and Allen). I wonder why that is...? --HurricaneMaker99 00:50, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Probably non-correlated. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:01, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

Finally, Bud! I thought it would take off a day or two ago, but he stayed weak and now may not become a C2 or C3, but only C1. Also, his delayed intensification means less threat for mudslides and flooding on the Pacific Coast of Mexico. =) Maybe he won't be so bad after all. Ryan1000 00:06, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * It is not even suppose to hit land anymore. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:21, May 24, 2012 (UTC)

Getting close; ATCF says 60 kts (70 mph), 992 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 00:42, May 24, 2012 (UTC) Ryan, Bud is getting larger and is just shy of hurricane strength base on ATCF and it will probably be one soon. as I say he is becoming larger and rain would be a big problem with Bud.Allanjeffs 00:45, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * ^Accidentally overwrote this when I posted my comment. Must have been a software bug. Sorry, Allan :/ --HurricaneMaker99 00:53, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Bud is forming an eye... Pretty obvious in 85GHz and 37GHz images. 99.58.60.158 02:11, May 24, 2012 (UTC)

Uh-oh, the new forecast track takes Bud MUCH closer to Mexico; enough to necessitate a Tropical Storm Watch. Current intensity is 70 mph/991 mbar, and the NHC is calling that conservative. --HurricaneMaker99 02:46, May 24, 2012 (UTC

Hurricane Bud
The first hurricane of the 2012 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season. this make Bud the first hurricane on May since hurricane Adrian in 2005.Allanjeffs 06:11, May 24, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:33, May 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hunters should be giving great information in the next 30 mins or so. I'm curious to see if they confirm NHC's estimates. Certainly looks like a major though. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:28, May 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's at 90kts right now and ATCF says 100kts. Hunters just did the first fly through of the storm but something went wrong and they didnt get data...from what I can tell they might've found a 100mph wind. Yqt1001 19:37, May 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">EP, 02, 2012052418,, BEST, 0, 160N, 1065W, 100, 961, HU<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 20, 20, now a major base on ATCF, But remember the NHC doesn`t always follow the ATCF files.Allanjeffs 19:41, May 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * 964 hPa based on dropsonde. Highest SFMR surface winds are 89 kn and max FL winds is 108 kn. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:49, May 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * I should also note that UW-CIMMS ADT is through the roof. It's now at T6.1. SSD is at T6.0. In any case, the weakening flag is on. Honestly, I'd say Bud's a major. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:54, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC kept Bud as a high-end Cat 2, but with a pressure of 962 mbar... slightly low for 110 mph, I'd say. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Bud was a major at 1800 UTC; IIRC, the NHC would have prepared the interim advisory before then, whereas the ATCF would have come out shortly afterward. In any event, the updated forecast track predicts a landfall in Mexico, and a Hurricane Warning is now in effect. --HurricaneMaker99 21:07, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) Bud is like Alex 2010. I come home and find that Bud is now nothing short of a strong hurricane. Those in its path should surely be prepared by now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:11, May 24, 2012 (UTC)

95/968 isn't really that bad. I'd consider it right around the range of a high-end C2. Looking at all the recon data so far, I agree with the NHC. There wasn't much conclusively supporting upgrading Bud to a major, except for the Sat. data. That being said, it's not that far off from C3. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:17, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Bud reminds me of Eugene - compare this to this. --HurricaneMaker99 21:27, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Recon found 120 knt flight level winds, which about 100 knt on the surface. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:57, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Okay, on the next advisory I think they will bump it to major. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:47, May 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Currently the National Hurricane Center is very reluctant to name Bud a major hurricane... as of the 5:00 PM PDT (8:00 PM EDT) advisory (brand new) Bud remains at 110 mph. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:57, May 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * It still can become a major.Allanjeffs 00:16, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * I believe it has reached major hurricane strength, NRL and ATCF have it at 115 mph (100 knots) and a pressure of 961 mbar. Supportstorm 00:40, May 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Agree Bud is probable a major now.Allanjeffs 01:06, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Is that a pinhole eye?! --HurricaneMaker99 01:46, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

Probably just a slight deterioration in structure. Either that or my eyes haven't adjusted to satellite analysis after a few months break. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:03, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not really, the storm appears to be starting an ERC. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:15, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Bud
115 mph, 960 mbar. "CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING FEATURES." Annular hurricane = NOT GOOD. I hope people in Bud's path are preparing for his arrival. --HurricaneMaker99 02:44, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Bud (2nd Time)
It didn't peak at MH for very long, so latest advisory put it at 95 kt, which is stronger than I had thought. About 4 hours ago the SW and S part of the eyewall collapsed and the N eyewall is on the verge of fully collapsing. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 11:11, May 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Honestly, there's no way that this was an ERC. Remember that NHC advisories are prepped earlier than the advisory time. The deterioration didn't really start until right before 0300z Adv. was due. There was no evidence of concentric eyewall formation in any of the microwave scans, or the recon passes. The recent microwave pass supports the idea that it was just the deterioration of the central structure of the storm. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 12:35, May 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Anyways, Hurricane Bud has weakened considerably (I stress considerably) and is now a minimal hurricane. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:02, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * It should make landfall soon. Currently at 75 mph/995 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:05, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

Regardless, rainfall will be a problem with Bud. It is also notable for being the second-earliest major ever recorded in EPac and second-earliest date for the season's second storm, after Ekeka and Hali, respectively, of 1992. Hopefully it won't be to much of a hassle for the folks near Puerto Vallarta. Ryan1000 21:16, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">UPDATE:Whoa. Bud's collapsed. Matter of fact, I think it's barely a tropical storm based on the latest sattelite imagery; it actually could become a remnant low by the very next advisory or even early tomorrow. Ryan1000 21:38, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Bud is like our Don he collapse in less than a day,the difference is that this became a major and Don only reach mid ts status.Allanjeffs 22:17, May 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * So closer to Rina then? And is this an eye or a dry slot? --HurricaneMaker99 22:22, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Dry slot. Cyclone10 E-Mail  22:36, May 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * It looks more like Beatriz in terms of impact, just became stronger overall. Neither Rina nor Don did two sh!ts worth of impacts in the places they hit. Bud did bring some rainfall and impacts to Mexico, but it probrably wasn't too severe, like Beatriz. Ryan1000 23:02, May 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Beatriz even help a drought that was occuring in Mexico at that time I don`t know if Bud will.Allanjeffs 23:35, May 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bud (2nd time)
Downgraded. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:10, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Bud
Well, its on a weakening streak and ready to die out. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 11:41, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well that was a fail... I don't even see the LLC anymore. The difference that a few hours could make. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 11:58, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

I don't even think the folks over there got the day off of work from this. It barely did anything to them. Beatriz was a hurricane when it affected the coastline, Bud was barely a TS. I'd be surprised if it caused any significant impacts. Ryan1000 12:33, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * To me it was like a Don 2010, fizzling out on impact. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 12:37, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Dead and gone. Next! <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 14:59, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud
And our cross-breed between Rina, Beatriz, and Don is dead. --HurricaneMaker99 15:05, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * What a fail.... I don't think it did much to Mexico. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:11, May 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * XD this was a fail for landfall but for intensity was ok it even became a cat 3 so please don`t call him a fail.LOLAllanjeffs 15:15, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Bud was the second-earliest major hurricane and named storm in EPac history, so I wouldn't call him an epic failure. However, he did bring some beneficial rain without severe impacts. It might have helped crop growth, like Beatriz. He might be a fail for his weakening, but he did acomplish some remarkable feats, so he's not in the Hurricane Hall of Lame. Don and Rina are. Ryan1000 16:20, May 26, 2012 (UTC)