Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season/October

October
The season has gone fast, didn't it? Isaac829 E-Mail  02:11, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, we might se 1 or 2 more storms in EPac until the season dies down. Ryan1000 08:00, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi:South of Mexico
Very big Aoi, 10% atm.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  00:38, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:19, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
STWO says 30%. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:19, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Starting to pull together...50% now. Looks like a Dora (1999) to me. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:02, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

No surface circulation yet, but the invest is up to 70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15-E
Now a TD. Here comes Olivia, 16th of the season. EPac's about to tie ATL again. Ryan1000 17:43, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olivia
Now Olivia, and already above the NHC forecast. Some strengthening is likely, maybe a peak at 65-70 mph? Kiewii! 21:55, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

I think so, but I won't rule out a 75 mph Hurricane Olivia. Anything stronger than 75 mph or lower than 60 mph seems unreasonable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:21, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah... no hurricane coming from this one. After staying at 60 mph for a day or so, Olivia's falling apart. Down to 45 mph now; that shear is really getting a hold of her. When was the last time an EPAC storm defied predictions by staying weak? --HurricaneMaker99 21:01, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep but Paul could be serious trouble.Allanjeffs 21:25, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * @HM99: Tropical Storm Fernanda, the only sub-hurricane strength last year, was expected to briefly become a hurricane, too (if it had, every named storm would've reached hurricane intensity last year). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:18, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fernanda came close as heck though. Olivia was overestimated by 15 kts. --HurricaneMaker99 23:34, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Olivia
Done for. --HurricaneMaker99 02:44, October 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep. My least favorite storm of this year. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:49, October 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * 35 mph/1006 mb. Here goes nothing. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:56, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Bye Olivia! Paul anyone? STO12 (talk) 03:24, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

my least favorite storm was Hector that should have stay as Ernesto ,and John the two fails of the season,anyways base on the gfs Paul is coming soon and expected to become a formidable storm may trouble Mexico.Allanjeffs 04:07, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Olivia
Yep. Isaac829 E-Mail  11:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Bye, Olivia! Hopefully, if Paul comes, he won't do what his 1982 predesscor did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:08, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

2011 was a once-in a lifetime event for EPac. We will likely never see another EPac season with a major hurricane existing in every month of the season except the first month (2008 ATL anyone?), and an ACE that was 120% above normal despite what NOAA forecasted "Only a 5% chance of above-normal activity in EPac". Anyways, yeah, that was a fail. Paul 1982 was a nightmare for Central America and also heavily damaged Mexico. Paul 2006, however, caused a pittance of damage to Mexico when it came ashore. I'd prefer a repeat of his last incarnation than the 1982 incarnation any day. Ryan1000 14:32, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Near Mexico
Popped on the TWO and is already at 20%. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:57, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Now invested. Paul, anyone? Ryan1000 16:55, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 30%. I think so. It'll be interesting to see who comes first, Paul or Patty? And after that, will Rosa or Rafael form earlier (assuming we get two more named storms in both basins)? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:59, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Patty has win the race and probably 98L will be Rafael.Allanjeffs 20:51, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

This invest is up to 40%, but still hasn't developed yet. It likely won't become much if it does develop though. Ryan1000 21:37, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 50%. However, could still struggle. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:33, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

We could have a tropical depression in the EPac...70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:32, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

100% here comes Paul.Allanjeffs 18:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

straight to ts Paul. PAUL, EP, E,, , , , 16, 2012, TS, O, 2012101000, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, EP162012 .Allanjeffs 19:58, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paul
40 mph/1005 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:01, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Catching up with the Atlantic! STO12 (talk) 21:36, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Expect rapid intensification with this one imo.Allanjeffs 21:51, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

May become our next major hurricane, but will remain out at sea while it is one. It may recurve north, but it'll be much weaker if it affects land by then. Ryan1000 22:15, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Paul
And it's a 'cane. Now at 75/988. It hasn't been wanting to explode. NHC doesn't make it that much stronger though. Ryan1000 11:00, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

This may not be significant, but with Paul's upgrade, 2012 is the second year in a row the NHC underestimated the number of the hurricanes (5-9 were predicted, but Paul is our 10th). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:23, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

NHC underestimated the numbers? I think you mean CPC (NOAA) underestimated the numbers. The NHC doesn't make the forecasts by itself. Only CSU, NOAA, TSR, WSI, UKMET, and a few other organizations make the yearly forecasts. Anyway, Paul seems to be strengthening. I'm not sure about major hurricane strength though, and even if it does, it shouldn't significantly affect land. Ryan1000 16:41, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Paul
Yay!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:49, October 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Wow, didn't see that coming. 120 mph, 960 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 20:51, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Like I say Paul will be a major I knew I was going to be correct.Allanjeffs 20:50, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Paul (2nd time)
Only briefly though. However, now it's expected to hit central Baja as a cat. 1. Shouldn't be worse than Norbert. Ryan1000 08:41, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Or Jimena (2009). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:45, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paul (2nd time)
70 mph/986 mb. Mexico got lucky! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:52, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

VERY lucky...Paul collapsed as soon as he came ashore. He might not be so bad after all. Ryan1000 02:01, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Headed to... CALIFORNIAAA!!! CALIFORNIA GIRRRRLZ!!! (As I last checked.) :D Whatcha all think?!? :O 188.223.248.201 17:17, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Will it affect California?-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:39, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Au revoir! --HurricaneMaker99 20:39, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Mexico sure got lucky! Paul could've been a re-Norbert (2008) or Jimena (2009) for the Baja California Peninsula, bud ended up becoming Rina and Bud 2.0. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, he pretty much collapsed onto himself just as he made landfall. He was forecast to be inland as a cat 2 bu NHC, but in reality it only hit them as a mere 60 mph TS, and it lost all of it's convection within 6 hours or so of it's landfall. Ryan1000 22:25, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:South of Hawaii
As the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific are snoozing, the Central Pacific isn't! An AOI 900 miles south of Hawaii has a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:22, October 18, 2012 (UTC)

92C.INVEST
Now Invested. And Andrew, the Atlantic isn't snoozing for long. In fact, we already have another AOI in the central Atlantic (that I just posted in the ATL forum) that's at 10% chance of developing in the next 2 days. However, no storms are active as of now. This could become a hurricane, but well south of Hawaii. Ryan1000 17:09, October 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now 0%. Isaac829  E-Mail  21:43, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one didn`t develop because it was near the equator to get spinAllanjeffs 22:45, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Guess we won't see anything after all. This one won't develop. Ryan1000 11:43, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
Popped on the TWO and is currently at 10% chance of development for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:51, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

the models are showing a potent major hurricane out of this one.Allanjeffs 00:13, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:41, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

This could become Rosa and maybe cause significant damage to Mexico when it recurves towards them later this week, as the GFS suggests. As Allan said, by then it might be a major hurricane. TD 18 is going to pose a rainfall threat but likely won't be a hurricane. Ryan1000 16:27, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  23:38, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
50%. Might become Rosa over the next few days. Ryan1000 12:09, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

I hope 98L becomes Rosa! If this becomes Rosa, this would not only make the 1988 season the only season that didn't reach the 'R' name on this list, but it would mark the first time in reliable records both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane season produced 17 total storms. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:31, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Might or might not be I am waiting for Valerie in the Atlantic though.Allanjeffs 04:15, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 40%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:11, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

Now TD17E.Allanjeffs 12:44, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Now a TS. Named Rosa. 112.201.143.202 15:10, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rosa
Per above. 112.201.143.202 15:10, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Per what Andrew said, its the first time ATL and EPac had 17 storms each. Closest runner-up is 2008, with 16 storms each. Ryan1000 17:24, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Hmmm...Rosa's intensifying when it's supposed to be weakening. Anyone think we'll see a hurricane? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:59, November 1, 2012 (UTC)

Probrably not. The center of Rosa is on the western side of her convection and shear will increase in the coming days, and will likely kill her off later on. Ryan1000 14:14, November 1, 2012 (UTC)

Well, it's November 3, and Rosa's still here. Somehow, she's immune to the wind shear... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:08, November 3, 2012 (UTC)

Not for long... Isaac829 E-Mail  14:31, November 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Rosa's been hanging on for at least a day longer than I expected. While she'll likely die soon, she's been a bit stubborn to succumb so easily. Ryan1000 15:27, November 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">HUMUNUKUAPUA'A!! :D ALOHA ROSA! So, Rosa, whatcha doin? ROSA: Not gonna do anything much, so see you in 2018. Now a tropical depression. Peh. Flop. 188.223.248.201 20:33, November 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Rosa
Will do nothing and die out in freezing EPAC waters. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:50, November 3, 2012 (UTC)

Bye Rosa. STO12 (talk) 02:39, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

She isn't dead yet. Isaac829 E-Mail  16:01, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rosa
She is now. --HurricaneMaker99 20:46, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Down and out. I credit her for lasting at least 2 days more than I expected. However, she didn't hit land anyways. Ryan1000 21:54, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:East of 98E
20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:11, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don`t think this will become Sergio. It seems too close to Rosa. Ryan1000 17:24, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I agree, 0% and gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:01, November 2, 2012 (UTC)

Actually, maybe not. Latest TWO brings it back up to 20% (was 10% a little earlier). Not guranteed to develop though. Ryan1000 01:09, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
<p style="margin-left: 24px">Woah! I guess I spoke too soon. 50%, and we might see Sergio. That would make 2012 the first year with EPac and ATL at 18 storms each. Well, I said we could have one more named storm. Here it is. Ryan1000 14:34, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">And this will mark the 2nd November in a row with a named storm! Hope the conditions are right for Sergio to pull his 2006 predesscor... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:27, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

Likely not. NHC only expects conditions to be favorable for a day or so until shear picks up and 90E will die. Ryan1000 17:53, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">...Or, maybe not. Down to 30%. Conditions will continue to fall down in the next day or two. Ryan1000 20:23, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">And back to 10%. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:19, November 5, 2012 (UTC)

Now near 0%. Maybe Sergio's not coming from this invest after all. It seems that the EPac has finally shut down. ATL also seems to be finally going to rest. While it's still not impossible we could get another storm or two, it's looking less and less likely. SHem should start up later this month though. Ryan1000 12:26, November 5, 2012 (UTC)