User blog:CobraStrike/CS-CFC Update: June 9, 2014


 * This is a blog update for the CobraStrike Coastal Forecasting Center, which provides updates on potential tropical cyclone impacts near the coasts of the eastern Pacific and north Atlantic. THIS IS NOT NHC DATA! DO NOT USE THIS INFORMATION FOR EMERGENCY PLANNING. 

Tropical Depression 03E
1800 CDT UPDATE 15.9N, 101.9W Tracking W at 5 mph Maximum winds 35 mph, higher gusts Maximum radii of maximum winds - roughly 30 or so nautical miles

%% IMPACTS %% ^WINDS... Model consensus provides the solution that 03E will move out into sea, and given the size of the storm, will likely not produce considerably damaging winds along the Mexican coast. Sustained winds will likely peak along the coast below tropical storm force at around 30 or 35 mph. However, it is possible for isolated cells intermingled within rainbands to produce strong gusts capable of producing damage. ^RAIN... Unlike Boris, 03E is largely disassociated with the Central American monsoon trough, and thus rainfall totals will not be as high. However, with 03E's proximity to the coast and its size, it is very likely that the outer extremities of the tropical depression will produce moderate to heavy rainfall, perhaps torrential at times, which may lead to isolated flooding. In addition, orographic forcing may lead to additional rainfall. eTRaP guidance illustrates rainfall totals peaking at 1.5" along the coast, though it is reasonable to  expect that totals exceeding 2.5" are possible in some areas. ^SURF...Tropical Depression 03E will likely generate high seas, peaking at 9 ft  (2.7 m) near its center; waves of 6 ft (1.8 m) are likely off the shores of   Acapulco, and other adjacent coastal regions. Expect waves to intensify near the center of this system as the storm itself strengthens. It is reasonable to expect waves exceeding 10 ft (3.0 m) and approaching 15 ft (4.6 m) near the core as the storm continues to grow over the next few days. $$