Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

July
I know that there still are several hours left before July, but I will begin this section slightly early. It will be interesting to see how this month develops after the impressive early season so far. I hope the AOI above becomes a tropical storm and that another named storm will develop before the end of the month. This would make 2017 the first season since 2005 to have five or more named storms before the end of July. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:28, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm going to add that AOI in this section in case it develops in July, since it'll be a July storm if it does. If not, it'll be included in the pre-season-June archive I just made. Ryan1000 23:14, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
This wave was forecast by the GFS at one point to become another pre-July or early July storm in the eastern Atlantic like Bret was, though they've backed off on it since. It's on the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook right now, but at only 10% for 5 days. However, this could become something in the Caribbean Sea later on, or even the EPac way down the road. Ryan1000 04:29, June 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO for now. Ryan1000 16:16, June 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm surprised that it isn't on the TWO yet. In 5 days, the GFS is developing a C1 hurricane traveling near Puerto Rico, The Bahamas, and slams into Newfoundland. I think we will have Don with this one, because conditions are looking very good in that time frame. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS now makes it a hurricane nearing Florida 312 hours out before turning out to sea, but that's too far out to be reliable. Still, if even the least powerful development scenario with this pans out, it'll be better than Don's flop in 2011. Ryan1000 23:18, June 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * The GFS has dropped the storm. 182.58.36.75 10:11, July 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * On the TWO now with a 0/20 chance as of now. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:00, July 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 10/40, this may become Don once it's a TS. :) 70.190.5.175 21:08, July 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 10/50. :) 70.190.5.175 22:50, July 2, 2017 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Invested and 10/60. It is really cool to see another early storm form in the MDR. I think this could become Don, as nearly all models except the ECMWF develop it. ECMWF tends to be very conservative with MDR systems, as it was the last model to develop Bret. If it does develop into Don, I wouldn't rule out hurricane strength if it can get into the western Atlantic intact and shear is low. ~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits    01:50, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * 10/70. GFS makes this a major in >10 days while recurving northeast of the Bahamas, whereas the Euro barely develops this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:02, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This kind of reminds me of Bertha '08, which formed 9 years ago on this day. If it becomes a hurricane sooner than later, it should recurve before hitting the eastern U.S, but it could be a formidable early-season storm for Bermuda or Atlantic Canada down the road. Either way, assuming this becomes Don, it'll redeem itself after failing miserably in 2011. Ryan1000 12:17, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20/70 now as of 8:00 a.m. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:22, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/70. 12Z GFS today has backed off on its intensity, but still take it north to Bermuda and Atlantic Canada in a week or two. Ryan1000 19:23, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * 40/70 on the latest TWO. :) 70.190.5.175 01:41, July 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Huge jump to 70/80, and could be Don later today since it's already producing winds close to TS status. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:40, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Both the GFS and the Euro are enthusiastic with this in the short-term with their latest runs as it's expected to pass north of the Antilles, but they've backed off on it's long-term intensity, as conditions for development won't be as favorable once it gets within the vicinity of the Bahamas or Bermuda. But it's still too far out to tell for sure. Ryan1000 13:31, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This has strong potential to be Don by tomorrow or so. It will probably be a better storm than the 2011 one if wind shear, dry air or anything else doesn't impact the storm significantly. It hasn't become better organized today, so still 70/80. I hope it's "Hurricane" Don since I want to see the name be a hurricane this time around. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:59, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Time is running out for 94L, and the NHC has dropped the chances to 70/70. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:25, July 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
Spoke too soon TG. However, NHC doesn't expect it to become a TS in their forecast track, as conditions for development are unfavorable north of the Antilles. But it could become Don before it dissipates...I wouldn't prefer it though, as Don already flopped last time in 2011, if this becomes Don it will too. Ryan1000 03:35, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unexpectedly, it just intensified into a TD although it had a lower chance of forming (60/60). The system is forecasted to last for a couple of days until it's a remnant low without intensifying into a TS. That means we'll have to wait for the next system to be named Don. It's currently at 30 mph (25 kn)/1009 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:39, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Don't rely on the NHC forecast too much. I saw the model intensity guidance at Tropical Tidbits, which is in the image to the right. Some guidance takes Four to TS strength and one even takes it to be a formidable C1 hurricane (labelled TCLP, I would not trust that one). I really hope this is not Don as it cannot strengthen significantly with all the unfavorable conditions lying around. This will only be a massive epic failure disgrace that just steals a name off the list if it did strengthen to 40 mph and defied the NHC forecast (unless it pulls off TCLP's forecast which is probably not gonna happen). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:48, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 1008 mbar, otherwise no change. Dry air is already starting to wrap into the northern parts of the circulation, so I don't think this will intensify much further. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:43, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * If this does become Don, I wouldn't care right now if it is a name-stealer. It is usually really rare to have an extremely strong storm in July. 2005 was the exception. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:10, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 1009 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 02:41, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC is calling it a "small, tenacious depression" in their latest forecast discussion, but it's continuing to weaken as it heads WNW, pressure now up to 1011 mbars. It seems better organized, but due to its small size it's very prone to outside atmospheric conditions. Dry air is a serious problem with the intensity of this system, as it has quite a lot of it to go through. Ryan1000 10:59, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * "...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY..." Either TD 4 gets its act together or, pending post-analysis, it becomes the first Atlantic TD since the 16th of 2008 to peak below 30 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:22, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

Man, this thing is just getting ripped apart. Not likely to even become a tropical storm. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:10, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression Four
And it didn't. Downgraded to a tropical wave, and I've heard it has very little, if any, chances of redeveloping. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:39, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Bit of an impressive convective blowup going on currently with no mention on NHC's TWO. Looked to me in the latest ASCAT passes that the remnants were trying to form a circulation and close it off and winds are definitely stronger now than when it was classified. If this convection holds as it begins its journey into a bit more favorable conditions, ex-TD4 has a chance to become Don still in my eyes. Will see what NHC thinks in the 2am update. Owen 03:23, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:Over Africa
Since yesterday, the GFS and Euro have been developing a fairly intense hurricane moving through the Caribbean. Both models show the depression forming in 6-7 days and one takes it into Central America. I'm not fully sure yet, but this could overturn the TD 4 upset. T G  2 0 1 7 13:04, July 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd take 200 (or 300 from yesterday) hour forecasts with a grain of salt, from either of the global models, also it's still way too early to tell for sure. The 12z Euro dropped it today. Since this is currently a low pressure system by the African coast, let's call it that for now. Might show up on the TWO next week when it gets further in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 04:23, July 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Somehow this isn't on the TWO yet, even though the GFS already forecasts this to become a TS in less than 120 hours. ECMWF doesn't show anything, but it usually struggles with genesis in the MDR. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:49, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements. Andros 1337 (talk) 04:34, June 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 10% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 25% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, 0.01% , 1% , 5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 25% , 30% , 35% , 40% , 45% , 50% , 55% , 60% , 65% , 70% , 75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS.  T G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Opinions
(Retirement colors: <font color="#006">-∞% , <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) ''' (Notes: A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely, used for either the best possible win storms or the worst possible failures. Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)). The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower.)

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:51, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Gets a lot of grading credit for its impressive and unusual formation in April. If this occurred at a typical time of year, the grade would have been MUCH lower. Stayed out to sea, so no retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#F20">D- - Struck a somewhat unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect); both the deaths and location could up the retirement chance a tad bit. Its unusual location for June saves the storm's grade from being "F" or lower.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#0F0">20%, <font color="#F80">D+ - Caused plenty of flooding in the Midwest and the Gulf region around Texas/Louisiana as well as 3 deaths (2 direct,1 indirect). Full damage totals aren't out yet as of the time I typed this, but the U.S. has been through MUCH worse tropical storms (like Allison 2001 for example). Chances could go up or down from 20% after I see released damage tolls.

My Retirements Prediction
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

50% or more=italics That's it for now. Ciao mates! :) 70.190.5.175 04:28, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 0% - Wow, an early season surprise in April (which is rare). But since it didn't impact any land, it has no chance to be retired. See you in 2023!
 * Bret: 2.5% 3% - An unusual storm that struck Venezuela and Trinidad. It was the first storm to strike Venezuela since a storm in 1993 by the same name. It caused an indirect death but it's most likely that it will be on 2023. Update: The storm caused another death raising it to 2.
 * Cindy: 20% - This storm made landfall in Louisiana; it caused a total of 3 deaths, caused flooding in southern Louisiana, and spawned tornadoes. It was one of the most wettest tropical cyclones in Mississippi (ranked 10th) Damages are unknown, but will be released later on.