Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season/Carlotta

94E.INVEST
20% on NHC. YE Tropical Cyclone 14:51, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * MJO is also expected to surge into EPAC Thursday-Saturday and that's when we might get another storm. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:06, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is the big one. Models have been fairly in agreement with this system over the past week. The EPAC TWD has also been discussing this system for about 5 days or so. I fully expect development from this. Darren23CWC 16:37, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * If development occurs, it may be a little slow. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:22, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Nah, I don't see any reason why not? YE Tropical Cyclone 17:31, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 30% CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 17:58, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not only does this storm have a descent chance of developing, but it (unfortunately) seems to be heading for the southern coast of Mexico. It may head out to sea instead, but GFS and ECMWF don't suggest that 3 days from now. Ryan1000 18:14, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * If I were to give a personal forecast of 94E, I would expect it to head out to sea and become Tropical Depression Three-E (and from there, there would be an extremely likely chance of it becoming Tropical Storm Carlotta). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 18:36, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Look at the model runs. They take it to MX. YE Tropical Cyclone 18:38, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * It could cause a potential flood event - the circulation is supposed to wander in and around Mexico. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:18, June 12, 2012 (UTC)

I wouldn't be so conservative Andrew. 94E is most likely going to become a category 1 or 2 hurricane and make landfall in the Ishtmus of Tehuntapec region in Mexico. Mexico is probrably preparing for this storm right now; hopefully they'll get everyone out of harm's way before Carlotta strikes. And after the landfall, it will likely briefly emerge into the GOM and move inland again near Veracruz (by then, it'll probrably be post-tropical), but rains will be a threat. Ryan1000 21:39, June 12, 2012 (UTC)

Now I think 94E is going to cause trouble in Mexico. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:19, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's starting to organize better... but my forecast is on the conservative end. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:47, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 50% CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:36, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think this storm will be a potent storm at landfall 110mph is my prediction I think that is the same intensity that Jova had when she made landfall in Mexico last year.Don`t remember correctly to be sincere.Allanjeffs 00:35, June 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * My forecast follows the track CobraStrike showed above, but I think anywhere from 85-100 mph at it's peak/landfall, or possibly(if it really explodes), 115 mph. Ryan1000 02:17, June 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Watch it die tomorrow for some random reason, like 93E. YE Tropical Cyclone 04:45, June 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's now at 60%. I doubt it'll follow the path of its predecessor, 93E. It may be snug in between two areas of 30 kt wind shear, but it already looks better than 93E and is in a secure position that has not seen many wind shear surges. Also the MJO will provide that needed lift in the atmosphere that will provide the convergence and divergence 94E needs, unlike with 93E. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:59, June 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Still not at TD yet, yet it is now at 30 knts. YE Tropical Cyclone 14:49, June 13, 2012 (UTC)

Still at 60%. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 17:45, June 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * They rammed it up to 90%. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:41, June 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * We would probably have td 3E at 11 pm the NHC looks worried that this would strength rapidly into a major storm or Mexico.Btw we are probably seeing our first shot of the 2012 pacific hurricane season of having a name storm to have its name retire.Allanjeffs 00:05, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * TD 3? You mean TD 3E. YE Tropical Cyclone 00:08, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Is there any place where I can download a desktop widget to monitor tropical cyclones worldwide? 64.134.40.61 00:36, June 14, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-E
Updated on ATCF. [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User:Yqt1001 Yqt1001 00:50, June 14, 2012 (UTC)]

EP, 03, 2012061400,, BEST, 0, 90N, 922W, 30, 1006, TD. We have td 3E in the pacific and is poise to become Carlotta at any moment, Mexico should really watch this system.Allanjeffs 00:56, June 14, 2012 (UTC)

Almost a tropical storm. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:37, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * I guess some swimming brings out the TDs! --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:40, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * New advisory, supposed to peak at 65 kts. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:51, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * A minimal hurricane seems reasonable, though I would go a little more. I don't know about Carlotta being retired, especially considering how often Mexico retires names, but it all depends on how bad flooding may be. @64: You could always view the tropical maps from WeatherUnderground if you want to see tropical cyclones worldwide, or Unisys Weather. Ryan1000 03:27, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * I make it peak at 65 kts... and BTW Atomic is back. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:29, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * I say a peak between 80 to 105 mph I am going to the top I know it doesn`t have a lot of time but RI could occur.Allanjeffs 04:27, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * I say about 60 knots.Cyclone10E-Mail 04:55, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * I would put the peak from this storm, as I said earlier, from 85 to 100 mph. 105-110 mph isn't out of the question, but it doesn't have much time (2 days, to be precise) until it will come ashore. Inland flooding will probrably be the main concern with this storm (Carlotta); storm surge is rarely a problem with most hurricanes in Mexico, except for the folks on the low-lying Yucatan Peninsula (mainly Cancun, Cozumel). Ryan1000 05:18, June 14, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Carlotta
Confirmed by NHC. Hello, Carlotta! And unfortulately, they take her stalling just inland after landfall. In the area she's heading, this reminds me a bit of Pauline, but it could also pull a Cristina (1996) and not do much other than bring some rainfall. Ryan1000 10:02, June 14, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 40 knts. Expected to hit Mexico in 2-3 days. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:54, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looks like they expect Carlotta to get on its feet quickly - as it is meant to become an 80 mph hurricane. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:14, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Probably Carlotta is going to be stronger thatn 80mph as RI can occur.Allanjeffs 16:54, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 40 kts - "THE RAPIDINTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENTCHANCE OF 25-KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING...SO THE EARLY PART OF THECURRENT FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE." --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 14:49, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 50 mph... strengthening some more. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 17:39, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * It looks like Carlotta could either parallel Mexico to the south, though still come close to land, or she could come just a little bit inland after landfall. Category two isn't out of the question yet; she still could bomb out before she reaches Mexico. Ryan1000 21:01, June 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * CDO looks really good now. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:13, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 65 mph and to become a hurricane soon. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:36, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Does anyone think Carlotta will become a major hurricane?Cyclone10E-Mail 03:52, June 15, 2012 (UTC)

I think it will stay below major hurricane strength, but if it does become one, it will likely be only a minimal major like Bud, and be one for as long as him too. Mexico should be getting everyone out by now, if they haven't already. Carlotta's going to get pretty wet for the folks near Acapulco in the next day or two. Ryan1000 04:41, June 15, 2012 (UTC)

now 70mph winds and 993pressure Carlotta will probbly be a hurricane tomorrow that I wake up.Allanjeffs 05:57, June 15, 2012 (UTC)

Currently 70 mph/991 mb. It should become a hurricane very soon.AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:22, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * If anything it could be a hurricane right now already since the last advisory. The eye is certainly popping up, as seen in visible (RGB) and infrared (AVN). As said in the past the SHIPS model indicates that there is a 50/50 chance of strengthening with Carlotta. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 14:05, June 15, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Carlotta
We have rapid intensification folks! 70kts at advisory, supposed to continue to RI until land interaction starts. :/ Yqt1001 14:43, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ho ho ho! I knew something would happen eventually, Supposed to peak at 100 mph before landfall. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 14:52, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Honestly, the clearness of the eye and the overall structure makes me think that the intensity of this system right now is right around 80-90 kn (c'mon NHC, use the proper abbreviation for knots). Even on the conservative side, I would say that this is at least 75 kn. Darren23CWC 15:13, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * I didn't think that Carlotta would reach major hurricane strength, but now I think it has a probable chance if it goes through RI. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 15:13, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think she has a real shot of carlotta of becoming a cat 3 before landfall this would be a very scary storm.Allanjeffs 15:25, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * I would say the peak strength may depend on what Hurricane Hunter aircraft finds. 70.126.74.7 16:20, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah... and the T# has stepped down from 5.0 to 4.9. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:26, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * SSD ADT right now has a more accurate center location. It has it at a T5.4 99 kn. Both ADT services have a tendency to overestimate almost everything, so even through UW-CIMMS ADT has the center way off, I'd agree with them and say 85-90 kn. Darren23CWC 16:38, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * She probably is a 100 to 105 mph hurricane right now and she will probably peak at cat 3 in my opinion.Allanjeffs 17:41, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * That latest advisory put it at 85 mph based on recon. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:02, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Base on recon I think Carlotta is going to be likely upgrade to cat 2.Allanjeffs 19:42, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's Cat. 2 now, latest advisory. The land hasn't stopped it since this morning. However, the NHC discussion still talks about potential RI. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:52, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep, 105 mph/976 mbars. I think it's a little too close to land to go past that, but this is the strongest Pacific hurricane to affect Mexico this early since Agatha of 1971 hit the Zihuatenejo area as a 100 mph storm. I have bad feelings about how wet this storm will get. Ryan1000 20:56, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Define "This early" Darren23CWC 21:00, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Agatha 71 was in May and hit at 85 knt, it is currently at 90 knt so if it hit at 90kt it would be tied with Alma 96 the strongest pre-July EPAC landfall. Now if it hit 95 knts, the record would not be shared. Dolores 74 hit at 80 knts, and Bridget 71 hit at 85 knts. Boris 96 hit at 75 knts while Alma 96 hit at 90 knts. YE Tropical Cyclone 21:10, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * If Carlotta makes landfall at cat 3 intensityor grater she would probably have a big chance of being retired plus she will be meandering near the coast the next few days, and if she is retire it would be the first storm to do so since ts Alma in 2008.Allanjeffs 21:40, June 15, 2012 (UTC)

EPAC retirements are fairly difficult to accurately predict because of the rarity and the difficulty to really establish skill in predicting it. Darren23CWC 21:56, June 15, 2012 (UTC)

I don't think Carlotta will get retired (at least, not yet). AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:13, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pauline, of 1997, made landfall on Puerto Angel as a 110 mph hurricane and got retired. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:02, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * That was different.Cyclone10E-Mail 23:19, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Strenthening has likely stopped - the eye is started to get obscured. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:43, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Carlotta will probably make landfall in the next few hours I doubt they will upgrade it to a major in post analysis like they didn`t upgrade Alex. Hope nothing major happen in Mexico and to their people be safe.And in the topic of Pauline,Rick which also make landfall in the same location as her didn`t get retire and many people I read say that it was worst than Pauline so its true maybe Carlotta won`t get retire but it still has a possibillity.Allanjeffs 00:55, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pauline was much much worse than Rick. I think it is too early to speculate if we don't know how much impact the storm has caused. YE Tropical Cyclone 02:34, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * With what I said before, let's say "before July". Agatha was weaker, but hit earlier. Alma barely made landfall, as it headed out to sea moments later. With regards to Pauline, you have to consider more than strength in respect to landfall intensity. Pauline was one of Mexico's wettest hurricanes, as well as the costliest and one of the deadliest. But retirements seem "random" in EPac because if Mexoco retired Pauline, which killed 230 people, why didn't they can Tara of 1961, which killed up to 500 people? Or why did they retire Ismael of 1995, which killed 116 people and not Liza of 1976 which killed over 600 people? Anyways, with Carlotta, it seems to follow a dangerously similar track to Pauline, which means rainfall may still be a danger for the folks near Acapulco. Ryan1000 02:42, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * By now Carlotta has made landfall, as its center has reached the coast, and should be inland by now. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:45, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Actually, Carlotta hit at 90 mph per the latest advisory, so Agatha of '71 was stronger and hit earlier, as was Alma of 1996. And YE, Bridget of 1971 made landfall as a tropical storm. It only brushed Acapulco as a category two hurricane, but it doesn't count as a landfall. The other storms were around the same intensity, but as I said, intensity doesn't mean a thing when it comes to TC's in this area. It all depends on how much rainfall they bring. Ryan1000 02:52, June 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Carlotta (2nd time)
Down to 45 mph. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:20, June 16, 2012 (UTC)

Going to be a real rainmaker. 70.126.74.7 13:55, June 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Carlotta
Winding down as the land disrupts the circulation... we still have an advisory to go, which is likely to be the last advisory. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 14:41, June 16, 2012 (UTC)

Is the NHC going to say something about the blowup near Acapulco next to TD Carlotta? 70.126.74.7 15:02, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe... but its likely not going to contribute to development because the center of circulation is already disrupted by the terrain. Yesterday a group of strong blowups outside the eyewall of Carlotta stole much of the eyewall energy. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:20, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is likely the end of Carlotta. The land is sucking the juice (rain) out of the system, which will lead to a quick dissipation. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 15:52, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * It should die in the next advisory or two. But flooding is still a big concern with this storm. Ryan1000 16:01, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Until now Carlotta has killed two girls they were sisters that is so sad.Allanjeffs 23:56, June 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah... Carlotta should die out real soon. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:29, June 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * I feel so bad for those girls! Carlotta is getting weaker, so I don't know if more fatalities will ocur. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:26, June 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * This will be Carlotta last advisory.Fatalities could still occur as heavy rain is expected in the next couple of days.Allanjeffs 01:37, June 17, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Carlotta
Died out faster than I thought.--Cyclone10E-Mail 02:48, June 17, 2012 (UTC)

Adios Carlotta. 70.126.74.7 02:49, June 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looks like it won't survive the turnabout. Adios! --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:07, June 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * Bye Carlotta hope your brothers and sisters don`t hurt Mexico like you.Allanjeffs 03:56, June 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, hopefully impacts won't be worse than where they were. Two people killed is sad, but hopefully it won't go into the hundreds. Flooding is not over just because it's dead. Ryan1000 05:12, June 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looks like the storm has died out, but the hazards are not done. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:19, June 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC has Carlotta at 0% for redevelopment.Cyclone10E-Mail 15:25, June 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * Absorbed and de-invested.Cyclone10E-Mail 18:41, June 17, 2012 (UTC)