Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is coming up, and the betting pools are up. I'll make some predictions for this season later, but if any of you guys have pre-season predictions, feel free to post them below. Ryan1000 03:56, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * CPHC will be merging their site to the NHC's in May. This should make finding advisories for CPAC storms even easier. Won't change the pace of CPHC TCRs though. Here's some other changes for this season.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:40, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * ...and the CPHC site is gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:24, May 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * The 2019 Pacific hurricane season has now officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  00:00, May 15, 2019 (UTC)

September
Since it's only a day away, might as well add this section now. 98E/future-Juliette may be added here if it forms on the 1st. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:39, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Baja California
An AOI popped up hundreds of miles southwest of Baja California, at 0/30 as of now.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 14:35, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. Looking likely to be Juliette. Geez, the EPac had a pathetic August - it's the first since 1973 (I think) to not have a hurricane form in this month. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:59, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 30/70 now. Beatissima (talk) 05:45, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Invested according to Tidbits. 60/90 now; Juliette is coming from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:37, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90! This organized more quickly than I thought it would. Juliette could come as soon as the next couple days. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:15, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * While everyone is focused on Dorian, 98E is already at 100/100. Tidbits now considers this as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eleven, but NHC hasn't made it official yet. JTWC also issued a TCFA for this thing. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:18, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Juliette
Juliette is here, and could possibly become a category 1 hurricane. Lets hope it's not a huge bust like Ivo. Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  08:39, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Transferred this to the September section. It's been a while since a system skipped the PTC and TD phases. Currently 1004 mb, 45 mph (this is intensifying kinda fast), and is forecast to peak at 85 mph. Juliette, previously 98E, actually looked like a TS in the 2-day TWO when I checked it earlier, which is the reason why I am not that surprised. It would somehow surprise me if Juliette won't reach hurricane status though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:55, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I guess we all got so caught up in Dorian that none of us posted anything about the disturbance in the EPAC that has now become TS Juliette. 40 kt/1004 mbar as of now, and expected to become a 75-kt hurricane in a couple days. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:13, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60 mph, 1000 mbars now. Also, I have transferred your post to this one, Dylan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:31, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * D'oh! My bad, I didn't even see a September section go up :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:45, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

This has organized so quickly, might have a very likely chance at major. Maybe it wants to be noticed during Dorian's time. At least there's a fishspinner to watch on the opposite side of Mexico in the midst of the cataclysm unfolding over the northern Bahamas as we speak. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:20, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like strengthening has slowed...for now. Pressure down to 998 mbar, winds stay the same. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:03, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

65/997. Will probably become a hurricane soon. Ryan1000 11:01, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Juliette
...and now it is one! 70 kts/987 mbar, forecast peak of 90 kts. Hoping it goes to Category 3 and peaks there - we haven't had an EPAC storm peak as a Category 3 since Otis (nor in the Atlantic since Ophelia, fwiw). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:39, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Only forecast to peak as a 105 mph hurricane by now, but if it tries just a little harder, we could get a Cat. 3 peak. And I'm certainly rooting for that (since it's a fishspinner) because it'll be the first in a long time! Also I want to note that the NHC forecast is above all of the intensity models for the first 48 hours. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:48, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Juliette
Well at this rate we'll have to wait. Already at 100 kts/963 mbar, with the forecast peak raised to a 115-kt Category 4. :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:34, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Woah, Juliette took off fast. It jumped from a C1 to a C3 in 6 hours.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 02:43, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Boy, that escalated quickly!  As far as I'm concerned, she can RI all she wants as long as she stays out at sea. Beatissima (talk) 02:45, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

With this happening, Julette is the first hurricane we've had since Flossie in July (this year was the first since 1973 to have no hurricanes in the month of August). Still have a bit of time left in the season though. Hopefully we can get another fishspinning major or two like Juliette. Ryan1000 12:59, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, what a pathetic August the EPac had this year. I'm quite surprised Juliette pulled off such a quick RI. However it seems to have leveled off in intensity at 125 mph and the NHC no longer forecasts a C4. Uh, this could actually be a C3-peaking storm 🤗 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:51, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Juliette (2nd time)
Down to cat 2, and should slowly die down from here on out. Ryan1000 12:12, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is a Category 3 peak. Finally. First since Otis and Ophelia. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:47, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Julay did well. PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:50, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to Category 1 strength, 85 mph/980 mbar. Expected to become a remnant low this weekend. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:05, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Juliette
Latest advisory downgrades it to a tropical storm and it should die by Sunday. Goodbye Juliette, thanks for peaking as a C3 (first here since Otis)! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:48, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Almost dead and losing convection, down to 45 mph/1005 mbar. Might be post-tropical or remnants as soon as the next advisory. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:22, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette
And now it is dead. Farewell, Juliette, thanks for becoming the first C3 since Otis! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:42, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
What??!!!! NHC suddenly gave 70/70 at 12:00UTC and declared a TD at 15:00UTC while west of 140W. Completely unexpected. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:49, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
"This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system." I actually burst out laughing. Well then, I guess we're about to see Akoni within the next day or so! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Where the hell did this come from??? Anyway, Akoni is coming, I guess. Expected to pass south of Hawaii as a strong TS. Hopefully becomes a hurricane since it's not expected to hit the islands. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:42, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow this thing came out of nowhere. 😮😮😮 Akoni is finally coming I guess? Lol. This is probably the most unexpected and quickest formation I've ever seen. And it's already crossing 140W and entering the CPac. I have to say, what a shocker. 😮 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:51, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wtf, this was definitely unexpected. First, an AOI that started off as a 70/70 and then rapidly developed into a tropical depression. Like wow, I have no more words to say. Anyway, I can see Akoni coming from this system. Hopefully, it becomes a hurricane and stays away from land.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 22:55, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

What a surprise! Beatissima (talk) 00:47, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still at 30 mph/1007 mbar, but looking better and could become Akoni in the next couple days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:06, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Akoni
Because of ASCAT, not a few days. Today.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:51, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, already?! And it's got 45 mph winds now. This could even become a hurricane down the road, and with the way things appear now, could be an IDL crosser in the very long term. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:05, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Akoni
And poof. It's gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:47, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * And I never expected this to be gone so soon! 😮 What a failure, unless it regenerates sometime. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:44, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Akoni's remnants are now on the TWO with a 0/20 chance of regeneration. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:55, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10. I doubt regeneration. Akoni was such an epic failure. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:24, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * And now it’s off from the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  22:00, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of S Coast of Mexico
This one just popped up at 0/20. Beatissima (talk) 00:42, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/30. This has Kiko potential. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:23, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Jumped to 20/70. Kiko anyone?  Sandy 156   :)  22:09, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

40/80. Kiko is probably coming from this. Ryan1000 13:33, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/90 but somehow it's still not invested. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:43, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
60/90, TCFA issued, finally invested. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:47, September 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 80/90, I expect a TD to form tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:53, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * The GFS is giving me shivers at the moment. It is predicting a Cat 3 impacting Hawaii in 10 days or do. -- Java Hurricane  08:12, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * That was one model run at more than 300 hours out. I wouldn't put much stock in it. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:35, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 90/90, almost there... Hopefully it curves away from Hawaii. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  19:07, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
It's now a depression. For now, forecast to become a minimal hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:22, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kiko
Upgraded to a TS. Hoping this becomes a hurricane because we don't need any more busts (like Ivo) or failure TSs. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:34, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, hurricane strength is no longer in the forecast. Hopefully it can still become one though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:03, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, OBVIOUSLY the EPAC have been producing mostly turd systems this year lmao this ain't any exception PeterPiper567 (talk) 21:06, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, but there's also been awesome storms like Barbara, Erick, and Juliette. Not a complete bust season, but still pathetic due to fails like Dalila, Gil, Henriette, and Akoni. Kiko has actually intensified to 50 mph/1001 mbar as of the latest advisory and a hurricane is back in the forecast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:09, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Surprisingly strengthened more than expected overnight. Almost a hurricane... 70 mph/992 mbar. At least this isn't another Ivo. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:17, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Kiko
lmfao watch this bomb out to major uwu PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:47, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * 110mph LMFAO PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:53, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Kiko
Now a 115 mph, 966 mbar category 3 hurricane according to the NHC. Yup. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 02:31, September 15, 2019 (UTC)


 * Well well, what a shocker! This really bombed out over the past day. The conservative NHC forecasts were beaten up once again by an EPac storm. Forecast peak 125 mph, but I'm calling for a Category 4. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:15, September 15, 2019 (UTC)


 * CALLED IT! Now a Category 4, 130 mph/950 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:16, September 15, 2019 (UTC)


 * And now it’s weakening. Down to a C3, 125/954.  Sandy 156   :)  02:52, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Kiko (2nd time)
Down to C2. Honestly Kiko looks pretty bad now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:01, September 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a C1, 85 mph/982 mbar. But this weakening might come to a halt in the next couple days and it could actually restrengthen during Wednesday-Thursday. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:07, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 75 mph/987 mbar, might weaken to a TS later today and begin to reintensify tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kiko (2nd time)
Downgraded to a TS, 60 mph/995 mbar. Another hurricane point at the end of the forecast...this is lasting longer than I initially expected. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:56, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is very strange. The recent advisory said that Kiko could reintensify over the next 3-4 days, before shear hits again. Then the models go crazy - forecasts vary from a depression to a category 4! And, as usual, the NHC forecast is conservative. Let us see what happens. -- Java Hurricane  00:28, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

Kiko reminds me of Karina in 2014, it's moving around in quite an erratic movement and might last for a long time if he doesn't encounter terribly unfavorable conditions anytime soon. Ryan1000 00:58, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * I agree, this is getting pretty erratic and long-lasting. Now 50 mph/1002 mbar and might bottom out around here. Expected to begin re-intensifying tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:42, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, crap. From the forecast, it looks like this will be one of those storms that just keeps on going and going and GOING and GOING... TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:42, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yep, and it's beginning to intensify again. Now 60 mph/1001 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:50, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 65 mph/998 mbar, should be a hurricane again by tomorrow morning or so. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:30, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 50 mph/1002 mbar, looks like the predicted strengthening didn't materialize yet. Still forecast to become a hurricane again by early next week. Kiko just keeps on going and going. At this rate, it could reach at least 2 weeks of existence... maybe if conditions don't become hostile in 5+ days, it could even make a run for 3 weeks. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:45, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

It has intensified again, 60 mph/999 mbar. But a hurricane isn't in the forecast anymore. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:12, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * 55 kt, 997 mbar, but all models forecast weakening. Except the ECMWF, all models dissipate Kiko before 140W. There is quite a bit of dry air around Kiko, and waters are only marginal. Moreover, the famous Great Hawaiian Wind Shear should hit by the time Kiko reaches the CPAC. Gradual weakening is forecast by the NHC, but all models dissipate Kiko in 3-4 days, except the ECMWF and the dynamic models. Looks like Kiko is on its last legs. The SAB has Kiko at T3.5, and so does UW-CIMMS, and the latest loops show some reduction in the dry air, but the stable atmosphere and marginal waters should kill Kiko before long. -- Java Hurricane  02:56, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Kiko hasn't changed much in strength. The storm has grown rather small and has turned West; soon, it should begin a southwestward motion, followed by a northwestward motion in 2 days. In the short-term, the storm should slowly weaken due to dry air. After two days, a stable atmosphere and increasing vertical wind shear associated with the GHWS should cause quick weakening. The NHC forecasts for Kiko to reach the threshold of the CPAC as a tropical cyclone, but I think that Kiko could dissipate in 3 days due to the rather hostile environment. Given the small size of the storm, the cyclone could spin down more quickly. On a side note, with 37 advisories, Kiko has displaced Erick as the longest lived storm of the year, and could last over 10 days if Kiko does not rapidly weaken from this point. -- Java Hurricane  15:22, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now down to 50 mph/1003 mbar. They forecast it to finally become a remnant low in 5 days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:40, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Kiko is finally moving WSW. This motion is forecast to persist for 2 more days, before the storm turns north as the ridge weakens. In the meantime, Kiko has weakened. The clud tops have warned, and the convection is getting exposed. UW-CIMMS indicates 15 lt of shear for now, but the shear is lower further south. Hence, the storm should only slowly weaken due to the stable atmosphere and dry air. After Kiko turns back north, weakening should be quicker due to increasing wind shear. The NHC forecasts degeneration in 5 days, but I think that could happen much sooner, given the storm's bad shape. -- Java Hurricane  02:10, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

Kiko still lived a decent amount of time though, longer than I first thought he would've lived. But he should be on his way out soon enough. Ryan1000 03:02, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: >1000 Miles SW of Baja
On the 5-day outlook at 0/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:43, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/30, looking to be Lorena. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:53, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the 2-day outlook, 10/30. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  15:29, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pretty sure it’ll have a chance of getting a CPac name. Harveycane   (Talk |  Contributions)  17:30, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * That would be a bit far out though. It could be Lorena (looks more likely for now) or Ema if it develops at a snails pace. Now 20/30. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  19:09, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20, development is not looking as likely anymore due to upper-level winds forecast down the road. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:50, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 10/10, will probably just dissipate. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:30, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0% for 2 and 5 days, now actually expected to drift towards Kiko's circulation. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:29, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * And now it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:17, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of Central America
Another on the 5-day outlook (0/20). Might be Mario if the above becomes Lorena. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  19:13, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/30. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  06:31, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:50, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/60, this could be Lorena guys, unless the 10/30 system to the SE of Kiko beats it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:09, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/70, should be on the two-day outlook soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is looking more likely to be Mario if the other system becomes Lorena. Down to 0/60 but very likely will still develop in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:11, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

On the 2-day outlook now. 10/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:30, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 20/60. It's a competition to see who will get Lorena, the loser gets Mario. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:19, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 40/70, Lorena is coming (if anybody cares). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:40, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and up to 60/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:03, September 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 90/90 while the other system (91E) is also 90/90. This is going to be the biggest battle ever for the name "Lorena". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:03, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lorena
Not sure if this is the one, but a special message from NHC has been released. 200 miles south of Acapulco, may affect Mexico. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:30, September 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Advisory out, forecast to peak at 55 kt, though the NHC believes that should the storm stay offshore Mexico, it could become a hurricane. Storm watch up for a part of Mexico. - Java Hurricane  15:13, September 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Forecast to come close to Cabo San Lucas/Baja California Sur. I hope Lorena won't follow Odile's path. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:41, September 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Looks like this won the race. This shouldn't become nearly as strong or devastating for Baja as Odile was, although I think it has a pretty good chance at becoming a hurricane especially if it misses Mexico a bit more than the forecast shows. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:30, September 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 50 mph/1002 mbar. Still expected to peak as a strong tropical storm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:52, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Ten bucks says Lorena eats her brother Mario on the way. Interestingly enough, both Lorena and Imelda managed to get named before the former depressions did, leading to their names being out of order when numbered up. I don't think there's ever been a case where two pairs of storms were active at the same time in the Atlantic and EPac to feature this distinction (well, assuming TD 10 gets Jerry soon). Ryan1000 22:15, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Its not expected to have a major interaction with Mario anymore. Harveycane   (Talk |  Contributions)  00:46, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

It currently looks like Mario has a smaller area of thunderstorms on his southern half, and it might be absorbed by Lorena at some point, if Lorena doesn't quickly move away or shrink in size. With the current track of Mario and Lorena, it would be tough to see the two not having a major interaction at some point, if one doesn't eat the other. Ryan1000 00:54, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * EP, 15, 2019091806,, BEST, 0, 157N, 1026W, 50, 1000, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LORENA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 031,
 * Latest ATCF fix (12Z) -- Java Hurricane  08:12, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 65 mph/997 mbar, now expected to become a hurricane as it could lash the states of Colima and Jalisco with potential hurricane conditions. Hurricane warning issued for those areas. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:53, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Almost a hurricane...70 mph/993 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:26, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now has a 100 mph peak expected. That’s only if it doesn’t turn and make a direct impact on Mexico. Harveycane   (Talk |  Contributions)  00:28, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Lorena
Now a hurricane while skirting dangerously close to Colima/Jalisco. Hopefully it's not a major flooding disaster there. 75 mph/990 mbar, forecast peak lowered to 90 mph. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:52, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Lorena has cleared Cuixamala, the place where Hurricane Patricia made landfall 4 years ago. -- Java Hurricane  08:34, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lorena (2nd time)
Downgraded to a TS due to land interaction, 70 mph/994 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:37, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 65 mph/997 mbar, but still expected to re-intensify. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:05, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Lorena (2nd time)
Back to hurricane status and expected to come dangerously close to Los Cabos. Forecast to turn back to sea and parallel the Baja California peninsula afterwards. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:11, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently 75 mph/987 mbar and really close to the peninsula at this moment. Looking at the long term, the NHC actually noted in the discussion that global models are picking up on Mario absorbing it in 48 hours. This would turn the tides, as the original possibility was that Mario and its precursor disturbance would be absorbed into Lorena. It's also possible that the combined Mario-Lorena system would bring moisture and possible showers around my area in the next several days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:17, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 85 mph but still the same pressure. The forecast has become highly uncertain. Currently forecast to go up the spine of the peninsula, but a shift into the warm Gulf of California could mean the intensity stalls or even further strengthening and likely more impacts to my area. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:14, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall on Baja California
Lorena's not moving very fast right now and could cause severe flooding to parts of the peninsula; while she's not as strong as Odile was 5 years ago for the Cabo San Lucas area, the flooding brought by Lorena could still be severe in some places. And yeah, it seems Lorena is shrinking after moving into Baja, so it could be absorbed by Mario down the road rather than the other way around, but Mario has been having a hard time keeping convection on his northeastern side, which makes me somehow doubt that. Ryan1000 00:44, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * It seems likely this could be a pretty big flooding disaster to southern Baja, hoping it ain't as bad as Odile. Hurricane and tropical storm force winds plus heavy flooding rain are occurring throughout the southern Baja Peninsula as we speak. Latest immediate advisory nudges the pressure down to 986 mbar, but the winds stay the same. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:51, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Winds down to 80 mph, but still 986 mbar. Now forecast to move through the Gulf of California. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:16, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 75 mph/986 mbar. Now actually forecast to make landfall in the state of Sonora. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:12, September 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lorena (3rd time)
Down to TS intensity, 50 mph/1002 mbar, as it transverses the Gulf of California. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:38, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now down to 45 mph/1002 mbar and nearing landfall in Sonora. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:10, September 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Almost making landfall - 40 mph/1005 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

Psot-Tropical Cyclone Lorena
Aaaaand now it's post tropical. Expected to be completely gone by tomorrow. Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  17:02, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: 1000 Miles SE of Hawaii
Popped up on the CPHC outlook at 0/20. Let's see if this becomes Ema. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  06:34, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:32, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back down to 0/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:15, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0% for 2 and 5 days, should die out pretty soon under unfavorable conditions. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:24, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:40, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Few Hundred Miles SW of Acapulco
Yet another one has appeared associated with a tropical wave, currently 10/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:52, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/30, might possibly be Lorena. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:10, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:10, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 20/50. Looking to be either Lorena or Mario. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:19, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
It's been invested and up to 40/50, but expected to interact or merge with the system behind it after mid-week. It's funny how I'm the only one updating these AOIs...does anyone even care about this basin? Lol ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:40, September 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * There's me, but I'm not that active here these days... :/ Up to 60/70, but this doesn't have long before it gets absorbed by what is now 92E. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:04, September 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * All other users seem to have ditched this basin though (at least when it comes to posting about AOIs, active storms like Kiko do get some activity). And this is now 90/90 along with 92E. A big battle is ensuing. Will it be Lorena? Or Mario? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:03, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * 100/100. 15-E is coming, if not Mario. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:32, September 17, 2019 (UTC) [EDIT: I'm a clown. This became 14-E. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:42, September 17, 2019 (UTC)]

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E
Forecast to reach 75 kt, but a lot depends on the shear it gets from Lorena. No merger forecast.  Java Hurricane  15:19, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hopefully future Mario would be the one that becomes a hurricane, and not Lorena who's very close to Mexico right now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:44, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * And considering how conservative NHC forecasts for the EPac seem to be, I'm going to bet that this will rapidly intensify to become a major. But proximity to Lorena will make it harder for to-be-Mario to do this compared to Kiko. This one can intensify all it wants as it stays out to sea, but I'd hope Lorena stays weaker due to the Mexican land threat. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:34, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mario
Up to 35 kt.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:49, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast peak down, but the NHC still forecasts a hurricane. It is expected that Lorena and Maroo will not interact. -- Java Hurricane  00:30, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Mairo looks trash on satellite. I don't think it's going to be a hurricane (or a decent one anyway). Harveycane   (Talk |  Contributions)  00:48, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is actually forecast to stall by day 3 due to interaction with Lorena. I still think it'll become a hurricane but if Lorena becomes the dominant one, it might stay under and dissipate sooner than expected. I think it'll be very fitting if Lorena was named "Luigi" instead lol. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:45, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 65 mph/996 mbar, this might become a hurricane sooner than I expected... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:54, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 65 mph, but pressure up a bit to 998 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:38, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

Weakened to 60 mph/999 mbar. No longer forecast to become a hurricane. It might be possible that it could merge into Lorena similar to how Ileana got eaten by John last year. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:41, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Mario got stronger. 65/995. Maybe he'll eat a Power-Up Mushroom and turn into a hurricane. Beatissima (talk) 02:37, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Lol maybe. Latest advisory has it still the same windspeed, but pressure down a bit to 994 mbar. I'd give it maybe a 40-50% chance of becoming a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:20, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pressure down further to 992 mbar, windspeed still 65 mph. But it has likely peaked so I don't think it'll become a hurricane anymore. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:15, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like he might eat Lorena instead. Beatissima (talk) 01:18, September 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 50 mph/998 mbar, will just weaken from here on out. At this point it looks like the systems will remain separate. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:10, September 21, 2019 (UTC)

Now 45 mph/1001 mbar, should die out by Monday or so. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:41, September 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Mario never managed to eat Lorena, or the other way around, instead his convection just faded away to his southwest in Lorena's wake, without doing much of anything. He'll die soon enough. I was almost certain that one of these two storms would eat or weaken the other, but it seems they never did. Ryan1000 01:49, September 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * I was a bit surprised as well that one of them never ate the other. Down to 40 mph/1001 mbar and basically looks like a naked swirl on satellite now. I expect it to dissipate tomorrow or so. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:09, September 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Mario now looks like nothing. No visible clouds, no nothing. Nothing but a typo from the NHC. Harveycane   (Talk |  Contributions)  06:33, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Hawaii
Whoa, yet another AOI... the EPac/CPac is going crazy. Currently 0/20 on the CPHC outlook and southwest of Hawaii. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:34, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:33, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
Invested and up to 30/40. Maybe this could become Ema. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:21, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now it's 50/50 but the window has shortened. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:38, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 40/40, this'll have to blow up if it wants to be something before Thursday when it interacts with a disturbance approaching from the northwest. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:44, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20, looks like this and the other system just to its west are combining. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:22, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:40, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near the Dateline
Yet another one appears on the CPHC 5-day outlook. Currently 0/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:15, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 20/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:39, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * This may or may not merge with the 40/40 system (91C), but interaction between these two would be interesting. Would not want a name-stealer but I would like to have more CPHC-named storms this year. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:43, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10, looks like this is actually merging with the system to its east. Who knows if the combined system will become something. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:24, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:40, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of Costa Rica
Yet another AOI has popped up on the EPac TWO. 10/30, may bring rain to El Salvador and Guatemala as it parallels the coast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:05, September 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looking quite possible to be Narda. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:03, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:36, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/40 and now near Guatemala, but still looking likely to be Narda. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:42, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/30 but no longer appears on the 2-day outlook. I assume the original low pressure has become undefined or dissipated and now a new one is expected to form from the same wave in the next couple days. This is taking a bit longer than I expected to develop. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:21, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/20, but I still have hope it'll be something. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:39, September 19, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 0/10, I guess it's going to fail... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:30, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to near 0% for 2 and 5 days. Yep, it busted and Narda will have to wait. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:46, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:06, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of Kiko
New on the outlook at 10/10, but eventual proximity to Kiko should limit any development. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:21, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to near 0% for 48 hours/5 days, expected to merge straight into Kiko. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:07, September 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:20, September 20, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.

East Pacific:
 * <font color="#eeff77">Alvin : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#AF0">C - Began the EPac season unusually late - the latest ever recorded. Stayed out to sea and barely met the criteria for hurricane intensity.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Barbara : <font color="#95A">0.001%, <font color="#00F">A+ - An early season C4 that peaked just below C5 intensity. Amazing storm in general despite not reaching C5. Barely caused any impacts at all in Hawaii.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Very short-lived forgettable TS, but at least it reached 50 mph.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Four-E : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - Forgettable failure, at least no name was stolen.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dalila : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Weak, but lingered for a few days. At least it was better than Gil and Henriette below.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Erick : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#05F">A - Reached C4, but barely. Pretty amazing to track the strongest "Erick" on record. Didn't do jack sh!t to Hawaii.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Flossie : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#AF0">C - Relatively long-lived despite peaking as a minimal hurricane. Passed near Hawaii as a dying storm but no damage or deaths. A bit of a disappointment though because it was initially thought to have a good chance at major status.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - Laughable failure #1 of early August. Lasted not even two days in total (15:00 UTC 8/3 to 3:00 UTC 8/5) and didn't even surpass 40 mph/1006 mb. What a disgrace.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Henriette : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - Laughable failure #2 of early August. Lasted even shorter than Gil, lol. And being just 1 mbar stronger doesn't help matters, it still peaked at only 40 mph.
 * <font color="#99ff99">Ivo : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F60">D- - Barely affected parts of Mexico causing absolutely no real negative effects whatsoever. At least it became a strong 65 mph tropical storm, which saves it from a failing grade, even though it was initially forecast to become a hurricane.
 * <font color="#ffbb00">Juliette : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#0AF">A- - A nice fishspinner and became the first EPac storm to peak as a C3 since Otis in 2017.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Kiko : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Lorena : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.
 * <font color="#99ff99">Mario : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.

Central Pacific:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - A short-lived, pathetic name-stealer. At least it got named in the CPac, which prevents the "Z" grade.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD/SD, <font color="#00faf4">TS/SS (40-50 mph) , <font color="#99ff99">TS/SS (60-70 mph) , <font color="#eeff77">C1 , <font color="#ffee40">C2 , <font color="#ffbb00">C3 , <font color="#ff7700">C4 , <font color="#ff0000">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#880033">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background, the color for "C5" was made more stark due to the severely of such storms, and a new color was added for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) so they would not be in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms that might be Category 6s if the category was introduced. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% ; <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: 

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: 

Staying: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Akoni, Juliette

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * Kiko - Staying
 * Lorena - Staying or at least Likely Staying, depending on how bad Mexican impacts are
 * Mario - Staying

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

None yet.

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: --



How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Sonia.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Priscilla or Raymond, or go further to Tico or Velma.
 * Wallis or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Octave or before is also unlikely.
 * In the Central Pacific, it is likely that Ema will be used this year. For Hone and beyond, it is looking unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see at most 1 system this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. Any devastating system is most likely to occur in September or October.

East Pacific:
 * Chances that Narda will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Will most likely be a late-September storm.
 * Chances that Octave will be used: <font color="#700">94% - I expect to see this in early October.
 * Chances that Priscilla will be used: <font color="#B00">82% - Highly likely to reach this name. Expect to see this in October.
 * Chances that Raymond will be used: <font color="#F30">69% - Also likely that we will reach this name, and might be a later October storm.
 * Chances that Sonia will be used: <font color="#F90">55% - Chances are still in favor for the season getting this far. Assuming it does form, it might be in November and might conclude the season.
 * Chances that Tico will be used: <font color="#9D0">40% - Chances decline below a coin toss at this point. If Tico does come, it should be a November or post-season surprise.
 * Chances that Velma will be used: <font color="#0A0">28% - Small chance of getting this far, although I wouldn't count on it.
 * Chances that Wallis will be used: <font color="#05A">13% - Very unlikely to get this far - activity doesn't seem like it will match last year.
 * Chances that Xina will be used: <font color="#00A">6% - 2018 got this far, but last year seemed more active and conducive than this year. I highly doubt we will get this far.
 * Chances that York will be used: <font color="#30A">2% - Surpassing last year? Nah, not happening.
 * Chances that Zelda will be used: <font color="#95A">0.1% - The chances reach almost zero at this point. We're not exhausting the list this year.
 * Chances that Anything beyond (Greeks?) will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - This year will not be anything exceptional. Surpassing 1992 is out of the cards.

Central Pacific: ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:16, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 03:54, September 19, 2019 (UTC))
 * Chances that Ema will be used: <font color="#F30">65% - I'll give this almost a 2/3 chance. There's still plenty of time left for Ema to develop. We'll see what happens.
 * Chances that Hone will be used: <font color="#0A5">20% - I doubt it.
 * Chances that Iona will be used: <font color="#00A">5% - A miracle CPac explosion shouldn't happen this year.
 * Chances that Keli will be used: <font color="#95A">0.1% - Nope!
 * Chances that Lala or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - 2015-level activity will not happen for sure.

Sandy's retirements and grades
Time to judge the EPac right now!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#80CCFF">PTC, <font color="#5EBAFF">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#F3E5AB">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Alvin : <font color="00CCFF">B- ,  0%  — The latest recorded start of the basin, Alvin managed to succeed NHC’s forecast and become a minimal hurricane before dying out.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Barbara : <font color="CD7F32">A++ , <font color="00CC00">0.01%  — A beautiful and amazing high-end Category 4 hurricane that had minimal impacts on Hawaii but otherwise, it’s very likely it’ll stay.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme :  E ,  0%  — A relatively short-lived storm that peaked at 50 mph, raising it to an E due to Dailia and Gil.


 * <font color="#5EBAFF">Four-E :  F ,  N/A  — Fail, but at least it wasn’t a name stealer.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Dailia :  F ,  0%  — A failure, but at least it lived longer and was stronger than Gil and Henriette.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Erick :  B ,  0%  — Barely held on to C4 for 12 hours but otherwise, it’s a great storm.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Flossie : <font color="3333CC">C- ,  0%  — Well underperformed its forecast for a C3, only peaking at an 80 mph C1 hurricane. It was long-lived however, so I’ll give her credit to that.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil :  Z ,  Fail%  — Gilma’s brother, that’s all I have to explain.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Henriette :  Z ,  Fail%  — Good job EPac, you produced another failicia! Barely stronger than Gil though.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo :  D- ,  0%  — I was expecting a C3 at the most for this system when it was an invest, but it underperformed miserably and never became a hurricane.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Juliette : <font color="00CC66">A ,  0%  — It was nice to see the first C3 since Otis of 2017.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni :  E ,  0%  — A weak and short-lived storm, but gets credit for forming in the CPac and pulling off a surprise formation.

That’s it for now folks!

 Sandy 156   :)  23:46, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 22:04, September 8, 2019 (UTC)]

Harveycane's predictions and grades
Overview=

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#D4AF37">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Formation chance/retirement percentages:
 * <font color="#666">0% 
 * <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9%  (Nearly 0%)
 * <font color="#00FFFF">1-9%  (Extremely unlikely)
 * <font color="#00D5D5">10-19%  (Very unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A0A0">20-29%  (Unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A000">30-39%  (Somewhat unlikely)
 * <font color="#FFC800">40-49%  (Medium)
 * <font color="#FF8800">50-59%  (Somewhat likely)
 * <font color="#E80000">60-69%  (Likely)
 * <font color="#B40000">70-79%  (Very likely)
 * <font color="#800000">80-89%  (Extremely likely)
 * <font color="#000000">90-99%  (Nearly certain)
 * <font color="#000080">100%  (Certain)

Retirement predictions and grades=
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Alvin : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#FF0">C- - After over a month and a half we finally get a hurricane. Should have formed much earlier, and it would have gotten a better grade.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Barbara : <font color="#AFFFFF">0.1%, <font color="#00F">A+ - Great storm! Became a high end C4 and looked good at satellite peak. This is what made me gain hope for the basin, until Gil and Henriette came. Only caused minimal damage, so its staying.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#F00">E - Short lived, crappy looking like the other fails in the season. However, it at least reached 50 mph.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Four-E : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Thank you for not wasting a name. However, you still were a fail.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dalila : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - A fail, but at least it didn't fail too bad unlike Gil and Henriette.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Erick : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#0CC">A - Great storm that just barely reached C4 status. It would have a higher grade if it were stronger though.
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Flossie : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#CF0">C - Reached hurricane status, but they forecasted a major once, which is why the grade is low.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil : <font color="#666">Failippe%, <font color="#600">Z - Come back in 2025 when you're ready to redeem yourself.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Failiette : <font color="#666">Terrible%, <font color="#600">Z - You too, Henriette. You were just as bad as Gil.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo : <font color="#666">Noob%, <font color="#300">Z- - You had one job, and that was to be something promising, AT LEAST a hurricane or something. But no, you decided to fail. Please redeem yourself, all three of you, in 2025. By the way, after further thoughts, I decided to give it a Z- for being such a waste of a potentially good storm.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Juliette : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#0CC">A - Congratulaions, you didn’t bust! Jkjk, but nonetheless this was an interesting fishspinner to track.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Kiko : <font color="#666">TBD%, <font color="#666">TBD - Currently active.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Short lived name stealer. Next!
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Lorena* : Up to <font color="#00D5D5">10%, <font color="#6F0">B- - Fortunately nobody died (for now), but she caused flooding in the states of Colima and Jalisco. Gets a B- for becoming a hurricane while not initially forecasted to, but impacts limited the grade from going higher.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Mario : <font color="#666">TBD%, <font color="#666">TBD - Currently active.

* Both Mario and Lorena formed simultaneously, although Mario was named later.

Overall season rating (tentative): <font color="#FC0">D+  - Unfortunately, the Eastern Pacific isn't doing so good as well. Yes, I am looking at these two pathetic failures. We could be on track to a below average season here. Future storm formation chances = Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):

Eastern Pacific:
 * Narda - <font color="#000000">99% - May likely form from the Central America invest, otherwise it will come hopefully by the end of September.
 * Octave - <font color="#000000">91% - Either in late September (probably not) or early October.
 * Priscilla - <font color="#800000">84% - Most likely going to be an October storm.
 * Raymond - <font color="#B40000">72% - Most likely a mid-October storm. Probably going to break the ongoing trend of every storm named Raymond being the strongest storm of the season.
 * Sonia - <font color="#FF8800">57% - Probably going to be a late-October storm. From here chances of formation drop dramatically.
 * Tico - <font color="#00A000">39% - Unlikely to form. I wont be surprised if this doesn't form.
 * Velma - <font color="#00A0A0">23% - Chances are low, but nonzero.
 * Wallis - <font color="#00D5D5">10% - Nope, we are not getting close to 2018 in any way.
 * Xina - <font color="#00FFFF">3% - A miracle explosion would have to happen, and that is not happening this into the season.
 * York - <font color="#AFFFFF">0.1% - It is almost impossible to reach here.
 * Zelda and beyond - <font color="#666">0% - Yeah, maybe it will. But only in your hypothetical what-might-have-been season.

Central Pacific: Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  03:47, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Ema - <font color="#00D5D5">34% - Chances for a second Central Pacific storm aren’t as low as I thought.
 * Hone - <font color="#AFFFFF">0.8% - Almost impossible to form at this point.
 * Iona and beyond - <font color="#666">0% - Trust me, a hyperactive Atlantic season this year will still be more likely than reaching here.

East Pacific Hurricane:
The basin has seen many new storms form within the past month.
 * Hurricane Alvin - Nice storm, won't be retired this year. (0%)
 * Hurricane Barbara - Strongest storm so far, won't be retired. (0%)
 * Hurricane Erick - Another fishspinner C4, it won't be retired. (0%)
 * Hurricane Flossie - Again, won't be retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Ivo - Almost became a hurricane. (0%)
 * Hurricane Juliette - Finally a major fishspinner hurricane. (0%)
 * Hurricane Kiko - Third C4 of the season, and it just doesn't know when to stop. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Lorena - Something to be on the lookout for at it approaches Mexico. (??%)
 * Tropical Storm Mario - Name of a video game character. May also become a hurricane like Lorena. (??%)
 * Tropical Storms Cosme, Dalila, Gil, and Henriette - Failures, all failures. (0%)

Central Pacific Hurricane:
Three storms so far in this basin, and all three were EPAC-CPAC crossovers: TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:42, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Erick - Formidable hurricane in the Central Pacific, but won't get retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Flossie - Became weak when it entered this basin. Did affect Hawaii, though. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Akoni - Well, it tried. (0%)

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

 * C1 Alvin - 0%
 * C4 Barbara - 0%
 * TS Cosme - 0%
 * TD Four-E - N/A
 * TS Dalila - 0%
 * C4 Erick - 0%
 * C1 Flossie - 0%
 * TS Gil - 0%
 * TS Henriette - 0%
 * TS Ivo - 0%
 * C3 Juliette - 0%
 * TS Akoni - 0%
 * C4 Kiko - currently active
 * C1 Lorena - TBD
 * TS Mario - currently active

Post-season Changes
Four-E's TCR has been released.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:24, August 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * That was fast...4-E's TCR was finished less than a month after it formed. But wasn't surprising, considering how short-lived and insignificant it was. Anyways, duration was cut a day short. Now do Cosme, Dalila, and Gil in that time frame, NHC. Ryan1000 09:33, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Cosme also out too.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

No changes to Cosme's intensity, but duration got cut 1 day short. Ryan1000 20:37, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Dalila is out, but was finished on the 9th, only two weeks after it dissipated. Fairly fast, and only the pressure was downed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 11:45, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Minor mistake, Dalila's wind speeds were actually upped 5 mph in its TCR.  Sandy 156   :)  06:59, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

Alvin's TCR is out, but was finished by August 22. Only held hurricane status for 6 hours but other than that, no major changes have been made.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Remember 9/11 05:04, September 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Barbara is out, but was finished on August 25. Pressure got buffed to 930 but it wasn't upgraded to a cat 5. Also, duration was cut a day short. Ryan1000 11:53, September 15, 2019 (UTC)