Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season/July

AOI:Future Erick
10% atm. Isaac829 E-Mail  23:40, July 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, this season is wrapping up fast! For all of us that tracked Eric in 2007, you know the drill :D. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:41, July 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * The most anticipated storm of the year is a few days from arrival. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:43, July 1, 2013 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested. We waited six years for this storm! Better not be a dud like your historical counterpart! - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  00:15, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

I am crossing my fingers for a "Hurricane Erick". If it does become one, someone should notify SkyFury... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:18, July 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yes, Sky was very upset when the last Eric was a dud. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  02:40, July 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Models are showing a hurricane about this it better be.btw people I believe this will be like 2008 that both the Atlantic and Epac end with the same total of storms.Allanjeffs 06:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now 30%. (see text below.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:06, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF

TEHUANTEPEC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10

MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

Every other Erick failed, will this be the first Erick to not fail? I'm not sure what to expect of this. Most of the models initially take Erick to becoming a hurricane, but only a cat 1 or 2 as of now, while remaining off of Mexico. Ryan1000 15:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like Erick will be a potent hurricane imo probably be the first major.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) 50% now. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Getting close. Time to get an article ready! YE Tropical Cyclone  02:47, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * It still need time by Wenesday it will be ready.Allanjeffs 04:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * 97E's organization is real good. Currently, it has been upped to a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Come on, Erick! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:35, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Fantastic news, well kind of. I probably expect Erik to become a Category 3-4-ish because of the may Cat 1s were are getting right now. For more information, here is a map. Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 20:51, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick_70.png


 * 97E has gotten really organized now. It already looks like Tropical Depression Five-E on satellite imagery. Currently, it is at a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. In fact, the NHC predicts our fifth tropical depression will be upon us later today. By the way, happy Independence Day to all American users! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:06, July 4, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E
Wow looks like the name Erick would not achieve hurricane status unless it intensify rapidly.The NHC is predicting a peak as a mid grade tropical storm.This name really has bad luck hope it streak end this year.Allanjeffs 15:01, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now td 5 expect Erick this afternoon or tonight.Allanjeffs 14:49, July 4, 2013 (UTC)

And now the NHC has confirmed the development of Tropical Depression Five-E. Sorry, SkyFury, unless this depression pulls a Hurricane Wilma, Hurricane Felix, or Cyclone Ului type explosion, we'll likely have to wait until 2019 for a Hurricane Erick, based on the NHC forecast. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:25, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * It better. Six years of waiting and Erick better pull it off. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  03:01, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick
Hope Erick fails :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:06, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Erick its pushing its way to become a hurricane.Allanjeffs 04:33, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's showing an eye-like feature. Isaac829 E-Mail  04:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Update: Erick is at 50 knots/998 mbar. He's already stronger than his 2007, 2001, 1989, and 1983 precedents (The 1983 Erick had no pressure reading) a.k.a. this Erick is the second strongest "Erick" ever. The storm's also brushing Mexico. Come on Erick! Please become a hurricane! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:29, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew,Erick would probably be a hurricane this afternoon or night,I knew it will be strong it will probably become a cat 2 or even a major.Allanjeffs 15:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick is mad it's wiki article got merged, so it's coming back with a vengence. YE Tropical Cyclone  16:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick is currently at 60 kts (65 mph)/997 mbar. In terms of windspeeds, this Erick is the strongest "Erick" ever. Pressurewise, Erick has 3 mbar left to go. Also, the NHC expects a 70-kt system from the storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:12, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick's filled out the pressure gap; he's now at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar. Yep, strongest Erick ever. --HurricaneMaker99 20:55, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Oh my goodness, Erick is at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar! This Erick is already strongest "Erick" ever, by pressure AND windspeed! Come on, Erick! The moment you've waited for over 30 years is hours away! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ah, the good life Andy. He is even expected to become a hurricane, that Erick. Could he beat Princess Cosme's EPAC record as the strongest storm this year? He WILL smash her record into pieces. I have the latest info here:


 * ERick_party_ii.pngERICK_party.png speed probability table, could even become a Cat 3 here. And he has Bud '12 in his DNA! What do y'all expect from Erick here?


 * Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 23:23, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

The 5:00 PDT advisory just came out...and no Hurricane Erick. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:41, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still not a hurricane. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:49, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Still hasn't happened yet! I'm starting to question if Erick's going to become a hurricane at all. The NHC discussion mentioned that Erick's been having trouble becoming vertically stacked... --HurricaneMaker99 10:18, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Erick
Erick, you finally did it! Good show, boy, good show! They've updated the ATCF files to reflect that Erick became a hurricane at around 06z. The new advisory intensity is 70 kts, 984 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 14:56, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * The 30-year streak has broken! Now Erick needs an article. Isaac829 E-Mail  15:20, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

Congrats, Erick did it! Hopefully, Mexico doesn't get hit too badly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:53, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Told ya everyone! Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 21:01, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, I went away for 4 days on my Independence Day vacation (150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg), and I missed out on quite a bit. Looks like this is the first Erick to not fail. Erick is expected to remain offshore of Mexico, so I doubt they'll be hit with anything more than a few waves near Cabo San Lucas. Dalila is all but dead. Looks like 94L won't hae enough time to make it before it ends up in Texas, but 95L in the Central Atlantic really worries me in the long run. The tropics are starting to pick up steam. Ryan1000 00:58, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick (2nd time)
Spent ~24 hours at peak intensity before dropping back down to a TS. Currently at 55 kts/993 mbar, becoming less organized. --HurricaneMaker99 19:27, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick is expected to make landfall around Baja California, as you can see here:


 * Erick_landfall.png I have this FRESH from le NHC:


 * ...ERICK BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...

TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013

1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED


 * WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.  So this CLEARLY means that Erick's peak is a Category 1 (FINALLY Erick is a hurricane now) and we have now officially ended the 30-year streak of "Erick being a flop." But... look what's happened!


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">No_dalila_erick_only.jpg you can see on the photo on the right, Dalila is no longer a tropical cyclone, meaning that she has dissipated. However, advisories are still being issued for Erick and we hope that, when he makes landfall in Mexico later on today or tomorrow, he will not be as damaging as THAT EPAC storm in 2011. (you know which one I'm talking about, don't cha?) So the current information on Erick...


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">WIND SPEED: 65 mph (55 knots)


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">PRESSURE: 993mb


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">MOVEMENT: west-northwest

<p style="margin-left:24px;">


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;"> Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 19:51, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

Currently crossing the 26°C isotherm today and will be entraining quite some dry air. The circulation is already choked. So, say goodbye to Erick! Six years of waiting and finally it has actually done something. We wont be seeing another Erick till 2019, which means this will be the "Erick" for another six years. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:45, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, time to say farewell to Erick. Thanks for finally becoming a hurricane!!! And Liz, the NHC actually does not expect Erick to make a landfall. If you look closer at the forecast cone, the dots remain offshore. And impactwise, Erick will make Hurricane Paul from last year look like 2010's Hurricane Karl. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:52, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

As Erick weakens, the system is beginning to affect Baja California. Also, note this glaring typo in the NHC advisory:

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN

BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING...

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:44, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's slowly dying down, I'd say it hasn't 36 hours of life left. Ryan1000 18:14, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Erick
And now, Erick has become a tropical depression. Currently at 30 kts/1004 mbar, all watches and warnings have been discontinued for Mexico, and the system should be nothing but a memory shortly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

The Epac will probably be quiet the rest of July with one more next storm as the Atlantic continues to produce.Allanjeffs 04:05, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick
Erick go bye bye. --HurricaneMaker99 15:15, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Out its time to the Atlantic to shine :PAllanjeffs 15:31, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Btw I believe for the first time there have five name storms four hurricanes and no majors yet.Allanjeffs 15:33, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Probrably, but I think we'll get a MH later on in the season. And hats off to the first Hurricane Erick in history. =) Ryan1000 16:09, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, Erick will be remembered for its intensity, but impactwise, should be long forgotten. And Allan, this is not the first time a Pacific hurricane season's first four hurricanes did not become majors. To my knowledge, 2008 and 2003 also had this event occur (but the latter is arguable, as no majors occured during the season) . Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:13, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * He meant the first time there were 4 hurricanes, yet no majors, out of the first five storms in the season. Well, 2008 also had that, I'll admit, but 2003 didn't have a single hurricane until Ignacio in late August, with no hurricanes out of the first 8 storms in the season, just like the 2011 AHS (but that year did have some majors). Ryan1000 20:17, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Middle of Nowhere
I'm glad that I checked the CPHC today, because there is actually something going on in the world! 0% though, predicted to die out at sea. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:10, July 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * This ain't going to develop into anything because of strong upper-level winds. If this becomes Pewa, I will be extremely surprised. -- Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:44, July 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not gonna happenAllanjeffs 06:15, July 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this is not going to become anything at all. It will just die out at sea eventually. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 18:51, July 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Still near 0%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:10, July 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * At near 0% still. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:56, July 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's dead. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 00:15, July 23, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:In the mid-Pacific
As Flossie threatens Hawaii, we have a new guy here in the Eastern Pacific. It is currently at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Anyone predict our seventh tropical depression? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:58, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * I don't expect Gil from this for the time being. But it could develop later on as it follows Flossie's footsteps. Ryan1000 22:18, July 29, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 20% looks like Gil might come sooner than expected Ryan. It doesn't look to become anything too significant though. Gil isn't really known for becoming a major hurricane, probably because it's never been one. But still, I don't think this reincarnation of Gil will be any different. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:21, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Well, guess what? This guy exploded overnight! Moving over favorable conditions, it has gotten much better organized. We could easily see a tropical depression in the coming few days. It currently has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. And as Otto said above, the name Gil is a pretty unlucky Northeastern Pacific tropical cyclone name. Using data from NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks tool, this what I found:

Given that (using HM99's number system in Flossie's section) :

TD = -1

TS = 0

C1 = 1

C2 = 2

C3 = 3

C4 = 4

C5 = 5

Then:

Gil 1983 = 1

Gil 1989 = 1

Gil 1995 = 0

Gil 2001 = 2

Gil 2007 = 0

Therefore, Gil's average intensity in the Northeastern Pacific is 0.6, or tropical storm intensity. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:04, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Woah, didn't expect this so soon. This could even become our first major. Ryan1000 13:03, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven-E
Dude, this thing exploded FAST! It's now a depression, and expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:56, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's forecast to weaken after it reaches a peak of 65 kt, though. Maybe this won't become the first major Hurricane Gil. And Andrew, I'm flattered that you used my system! Your math was slightly off, though: ((1+1+0+2+0)=4)/5 = 0.8. Personally I would round anything from 0.5 to 1.4 to Category 1, which would make that Gil's average intensity, but I can see why you'd keep it at TS strength since it's technically below 1.0. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:15, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * And going by knots (which is probably a better system), (80+75+55+85+40)/5 = 67 kts, which is a low-end Category 1. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:19, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * This depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Right now, it has a 42% chance of becoming a hurricane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:24, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'm getting Eugene-ish vibes on this one. It's only expected to peak as a cat. 1, but it defies predictions and explodes. Conditions aren't that unfavorable in front of this one. Ryan1000 17:13, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * I am sick and tire of this systems only reaching cat 1 intensity this season.Allanjeffs 18:52, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * UGHHHHHHHHHHH -_- You're right Al. Gill will be a flopper this season! -_-! Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 18:59, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * I don't know what to expect out of 7-e. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:52, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gil
Increased organization in Tropical Depression Seven-E = a 35 kt/1006 mbar Tropical Storm Gil! We could see a weak hurricane from this storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:45, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Aye, I'm thinking 70-75 kts out of this one. Kiewii! 20:51, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Earliest seventh storm of an EPAC season since Genevieve in 2008. We're running at a fairly decent clip, though I'm not that familiar with EPAC climatology. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:10, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yes! We have Gil. I think this will become a hurricane, and maybe peak at around 80 mph. And since this is the earliest 7th named storm since 2008, I think we will have a very active season! Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 21:21, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

I do expect a very weak category 1 hurricane, maybe a 75 mph at the most. Gil seems to be in a somewhat favorable conditions and is going to move to the northwest. Gil isn't going to be anything close to Flossie with its impact to Hawaii, but it isn't going to be a flop. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 23:01, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Actually its looks like its developing an eye so this might be our first major if RI occurs.Allanjeffs 23:07, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * EPac typically has 4 storms in July, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Thus far we've had 3 storms form in July (4 if you count Dalila's June cross over), and 2 hurricanes. But, no majors. Like I said I have a feeling this could Eugene out and become a cat. 3 or 4. Ryan1000 01:50, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * no, we've had 3 storms, and 1 hurricane. 2013 PHS has been nothing above average at all. It will likely become a major if it does so in August. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:57, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, the 2nd hurricane being Dalila, which clearly became a hurricane in July, although forming in June, I don't count it as a June hurricane. Ryan1000 03:20, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 50 kts but still expected to peak at 65 kts Kiewii! 09:10, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * I would say up to 55 or 60 kt at the 21z advisory - looks like an eye is developing Kiewii! 18:55, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think Gil will become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:06, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * At 5pm should be upgrade.Allanjeffs 20:22, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Gil
Now a hurricane folks! Kiewii! 20:35, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Well, that was fast! I still do not expect a major hurricane, though, despite Gil's intensity jump. 95 kts/975 mbar sounds like a good peak. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Geez, this storm strengthened faster than I predicted! I now think this will probably become a Category 2, and it might even have a shot at major hurricane status. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 21:33, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * GILZILLA! Huzzah! We have a hurricane. This could become the first major of the season, seeing as he strengthened very quickly like Le Berto of 07. I thought it would be IMPOSSIBRU!!! Well done Gil, bro. By Friday, IMO, he sould become major. Guys? Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 22:01, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, Gil took 36 hours to go from tropical depression intensity to hurricane intensity. Humberto '07 took 18 hours. Paula '10 took 24 hours. Blanche '69 also took 18 hours. Finally, Ethel '60 took six hours. So Gil's intensification is fast, but not record quick. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:04, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Gil intensified faster than we and NHC expected. Gil is now a hurricane, category 1. Could round out as a category 2 before it's all said and done. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 23:54, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now at 70 kt/990 mbar, forecast peak raised to an 85 kt Category 2. I should note what forecaster Beven said regarding the intensity forecast for Gil: "THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...SIMILAR TO THE GFS...WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24-48 HR. A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION... SIMILAR TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WOULD KEEP GIL OVER WARMER WATER AND IN A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SECOND FACTOR IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS OVER OR NOT...WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING A DECREASED CHANCE OF CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...EXCEPT AT 24 HR WHEN THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT GIL CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR AND GETS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST." Basically, Gil could peak anywhere from right here to major hurricane strength. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:14, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * ...and it looks like Gil's opting for the former scenario! The intensity has leveled off since last night. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:12, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Why does Gil have to be so boring? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:45, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now it's 75 kt/988 mbar per ATCF. Tied with Cosme for the highest winds so far this season, but it's in 4th place pressure-wise behind Cosme, Erick, and Dalila. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:56, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * ...but the advisory intensity is unchanged from 8am because the convection has warmed greatly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:48, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * cat 1 in the Epac is becoming pretty boring.Every hurricane has reach that intensity.Allanjeffs 23:09, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ok, so the ATCF file was lowered to 70 kt, for 18z, but the 00z entry says 75 kt, 985 mbar, which would put Gil ahead of Dalila as the 3rd most intense storm of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:32, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope Gil can become a Category 2, since all the hurricanes so far in the East Pacific only peaked at C1 intensity. It still has a chance to reach that category. C'mon, Gil! Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:11, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * And its down to 75mph looks like Gil has lost it chance into becoming the first major of the season.I  hope we don`t get in part with 2003.I believe they are only 2 years in which they were no majors in the Epac,but I doubt it will happen this year.Allanjeffs 14:38, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gil (2nd time)
60 kt/992 mbar. Avila was shocked when Gil started weakening earlier. It looked like Gil was on a slow but steady strengthening trend, but apparently not. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:58, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Gil will get weaker from here. In 96 hours, the NHC predicts the storm will be further downgraded to a tropical depression and enter the CPAC. Also, Allan, there have been two seasons since the start of the Eastern Pacific satellite era in 1971, 1977 and 2003, in which none of the hurricanes became majors. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:15, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

He doesn`t deserve ts status imo should be downgrade to td pretty soon but they expect 90E to become dominant.Allanjeffs 05:37, August 3, 2013 (UTC)

Gil should dissipate during the next few days. Looks like we have another hurricane peaking at C1 intensity. Geez, when are we going to get a Category 2 or a major? Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:06, August 3, 2013 (UTC)

Gil's time is almost done. Didn't do much, but did attain hurricane status. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 15:32, August 3, 2013 (UTC)

Gil is currently at 45 kts/1001 mbar. In 72 hours, it should be in the CPAC AOR. Also, assuming Gil does not Daniel out at the last minute, the 2013 Pacific hurricane season will mark the first time since 2008 none of the season's first seven storms became major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:08, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gil
Almost gone. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 14:38, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

Gil is currently at 30 kts/1008 mbar. The NHC expects degeneration into a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours. Oh well, Gil was a fail. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:00, August 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, at least it became a hurricane, but it didn't do much either way. Btw, fixed the size of the heading. Ryan1000 16:52, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Gil strengthened! As of the 2100 UTC advisory, it is now at 30 kts/1006 mbar, compared to 25 kts/1007 mbar at its previous advisory. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:51, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Gil strengthened? It might even have a chance at regaining tropical storm winds, but I doubt it. BTW, it is also crossing into the Central Pacific right now. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 01:06, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Forecast keeps Gil a TD for the next 5 days. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:38, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

...And it looks like Gil has lost tropical cyclone status. Ryan1000 06:04, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan, Gil never lost tropical cyclone status. It just moved into the CPAC area of responsibility. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gil (3rd time)
Steven, you said this would not happen, but it did! Gil's at 35 kts/1006 mbar. Pretty impressive considering the fact the NHC thought Gil would be dead by now. Also, Gil's crossover marks the first time since 2009 two or more depressions have existed in the CPAC AOR. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Andrew, Gil did die last night at one point. However, it managed to come back from the dead. I didn't expect that to happen, but it did. Ryan1000 13:57, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looking at Gil's advisories, I don't see any where Gil was declared dead. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:12, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ryan Gil didn`t die he just move to the central pacific region check the advisories.Allanjeffs 17:09, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Maybe that was a typo on NHC last night, when I looked it said "post-tropical cyclone Gil", but they might have meant to say it was CPac bound. Either way, Gil won't intensify to a hurricane again. Forecast shows only weakening from here on out. Ryan1000 19:15, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ryan for some strange reason the NHC this year has done that,the same happen with Flossie.Lets wait and see if they do the same with Henriette.Allanjeffs 22:33, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gil (2nd time)
And Gil is once again a tropical depression. Currently at 35 kts/1008 mbar, this weakening should be permanent. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:13, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil
Buh-bye. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Expect Henriette pretty soon.Allanjeffs 19:17, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Currently, it is at 10%. However, Tropical Depression Seven-E will steal the system of all warm waters. I do not expect our eighth tropical depression just yet. Also, to Allan and Liz, there were many Pacific seasons where no storms exceeded Category 1 intensity. 1966 had seven hurricanes (Adele, Blanca, Connie, Dolores, Eileen, Francesca, and Helga) but they were all very weak. 1968 had twenty tropical storms but only six hurricanes (Fernanda, Joanne, Liza, Naomi, Pauline, and Rebecca), none past Category 1. For comparison, 2011 had nine fewer tropical storms, but six major hurricanes. Several other Pacific seasons (namely 1950, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965) had this happen, but I am really sure all of those were because we did not have today's technology. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:30, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some major hurricanes might have been missed back in the 50's and 60's. And I agree Andrew, 7-E will be the more dominant system. This could be a TS though, but won't be as strong as Gil (7-E) will be. Ryan1000 19:35, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * 1968 has two major hurricanes really, Pauline and Liza. Just that some files from the NWPC and JTWc were messed up. Back on topic, 90E looks good. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:54, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * And it jumps to 40%! Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Woah, not bad, EPac is shaping up nicely. I think 7-E and this system could be very similar to Bud and Carlotta, respectively, of July 2006. 7-E will probrably become a powerful system, and 6-E-to be will be weaker but still worth tracking. Ryan1000 20:17, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Expect this to become 8E pretty soon.This one and Gil looks like twins.Allanjeffs 20:56, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * WTF? This was just at 10% a few hours ago! Anyway, I think this will become Henriette, but only be a weak system. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 21:18, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * I am actually curious about whether or not this could end up being the dominant system. Judging from this satellite view of Gil, 90E looks slightly larger. Could it overtake Gil like Erick did to Dalila? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:30, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Depends on which one becomes stronger faster also which one is larger like you mention and how fast do they move.Allanjeffs 22:32, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Could potentially become another named storm, Henriette might be lurking around the corner. But if the system interferes with Gil it might just destroy itself and Gil. It seems to be moving at a slower pace than Gil so I don't think that'll be an issue. It's only at 40% right now, so we'll have to wait to be sure. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 23:05, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Well, this invest is becoming Gil's little sister! It has upped to a 60% percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. By the way, assuming this invest becomes a tropical storm tomorrow, this would make 2013 the fastest paced hurricane season in terms of named storms since 1992, which got its eighth storm (Hurricane Frank) on July 14. (Note that 1994's eighth named storm, Hurricane Li, also formed on July 31, but it was not upgraded to a tropical storm until around August 8) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:08, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 40%Allanjeffs 12:08, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Maybe Gil is starting to become dominant over this one. I still would expect some development from this but not more than a minimal TS if anything. Ryan1000 13:46, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, looks like Gil is becoming dominant. This might develop a little bit, but I don't think it will become Henriette.


 * Also, check this out! It looks like a tropical storm already. And this image is of 90E, not Gil. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:12, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * That image is from nearly a day ago! There might be a chance it is upgraded in the post-season though?? Kiewii! 19:15, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Back up to 50%, though Gil's domination means that this invest could have trouble intensifying enough to become a tropical cyclone. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:16, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

Remains at 50% within the next 48 hours, but has a 60% chance of formation within the next five days. Kiewii! 11:48, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this could become Henriette when Gil slows down. Ryan1000 17:52, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

This invest is currently at a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. I believe we might see something from 90L. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * That's down from 60%, though. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:33, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

The invest has been downgraded to a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Gil is eating this system alive! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:25, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 30% and may not develop after all.Allanjeffs 14:39, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Back up to 50%, and 60% for the next 5 days. As Gil continues to weaken, this one will continue to strengthen. Ryan1000 13:05, August 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E
It's now a depression. Expected to be only a weak TS. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:09, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, only a minimal tropical storm at the most thanks to Gil's proximity. Future-Henriette is going to have to be a flop. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 15:37, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * This depression is like Hurricane Carlotta in 2006. It will have to deal with the shear its big brother Gil left behind.  At most, the NHC expects a 35 kt tropical storm. This is the sorriest excuse of a tropical cyclone since Tropical Storm Karina in 2008 IMO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:51, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Still is not done,but it will probably be an epic fail.Allanjeffs 15:53, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Agreed. I mean, Henriette will be a failure storm; well, according to her shape and the maps anyway. This reminds me of Illeanna (sp?) and John last year. Illeanna was a cat 1 whilst John was a weak ts. Happening with gill and henriette. (ps is gil short for gillian) Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 22:03, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Liz, Ileana and John did not interact. A better analouge would be Bud and Carlotta '06. Also, John gave some rain to Mexico. However, this depression will be nothing more than Karina 2.0. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:44, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * It'll last a little longer than Karina did, but it shouldn't become much either way. Karina was alive for 6 hours then it died. Ryan1000 23:07, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Karina in total from tropical storm to death was alived for 36 hours that mean 1 day and a half.Allanjeffs 00:14, August 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * The depression has intensified to 30 kts/1008 mbar. The NHC now expects a 55-kt tropical storm from this system. Also, assuming Gil does not Daniel out at the last minute and this depression peaks at tropical storm intensity, the 2013 Pacific hurricane season will be the first Pacific hurricane season since 2005 to have none of its first eight storms become major hurricanes. For reference, 2005 made it all the way to Jova before getting a major, and even that just barely passed the threshold. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:13, August 4, 2013 (UTC


 * I doubt this will do much at all. Well, Karina was a TS for that long (only 2 advisories). This won't explode at all. The remnants of Gil will create hostile shear that will prevent this from getting stronger than a TS, like Bud did to Carlotta in July 2006. Ryan1000 04:02, August 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * If it wasn`t for Gil this would have become a major :(Allanjeffs 04:29, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Henriette
Its here and would probably become the 6 hurricane of the season,but will be a cat 1 at most.Allanjeffs 14:41, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

Henriette is finally here! <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 14:36, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

Well, we have a Fernanda (2011)-like system in the making. Henriette is currently at 35 kts/1005 mbar. It is expected to reach 60 kts before dissipating. Hurricane status is not out of the question, but there is no guarantee what will happen to this storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:03, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

Henriette is here! I think she will become either a minimal hurricane or a strong 70 mph TS. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:43, August 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Latest NHC forecast predicts another cat. 1...I'm getting real bored of all these weak EPac hurricanes. ATL is silent now that ex-Dorian is finally down and out. Ryan1000 22:03, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

Henriette is getting a little stronger, 45 kts/1002 mbar. In 48 hours, we could see a 70-kt Hurricane Henriette, which is five kts below 2007's Hurricane Henriette. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:30, August 5, 2013 (UTC)

2013 is very strange for the Eastern Pacific, no major hurricane and its August? Not even a cat 2 or above and its August? Henriette looks to be adding to our very long streak of category 1 hurricanes. Hopefully August will round up a major. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 15:44, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Henriette will probrably turn south of Hawaii, unlike Flossie, but it could become stronger than Gil should conditions favor it. Ryan1000 16:52, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Henriette is at 50 kts/1002 mbar. It should become a hurricane in 24 hours, and the NHC expects peak windspeeds of 75 kts. In addition, it should survive into the CPAC as a tropical storm. Assuming Gil and Henriette both survive into the CPAC, it would mark the first time since 2009 three consecutive EPAC named storms survived into the CPAC (Felicia, Guillermo, and Hilda). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:00, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Henriette would probably be a cat 2 before everything is done,and I am expecting our major from the system that will develop near Mexico as some models are showing.Allanjeffs 19:35, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Henriette is now at 60 kts/996 mbar. The NHC still predicts Henriette will only make it to 75 kts before weakening. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:53, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * I agree Allan, the latest run from HWRF sees a pretty powerful hurricane coming in EPac after Gil, but it (Ivo) will remain offshore. The HWRF also shows a pretty big storm leaving Africa and becoming a powerful hurricane in the Central Atlantic several days out. Not that they're the most reliable model but it could happen. Ryan1000 21:11, August 5, 2013 (UTC)

Well, Henriette is now a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds, and slowly strengthening. I think it will peak as a strong Cat. 1 or a weak Cat. 2. I hope it becomes a Category 2, since we had way too many Category 1's in the Pacific this year! Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 01:11, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, it's 60 knts. Idk what to say about Henriette, I won't be shocked to see a major, but I've said that with every storm this season. So, I will be shocked if it becomes a major. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:33, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * As Gil dies out, this one rises up. Should be a hurricane soon. Ryan1000 06:00, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Henriette
She did it! It's at 65 kts/991 mbar. Unfortunately, all the major forecast models do not intensify Henriette beyond 75 kts. So 1983's Hurricane Henriette will likely remain the only major Hurricane Henriette ever. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:37, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Expected to get a little stronger before weakening and missing Hawaii to the south. Ryan1000 13:57, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not so fast Andrew,Henriette looks on its way to become a cat 2 and if she strengths fast she might pull a Daniel.Allanjeffs 17:15, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * I thought Gil would do that, but it didn't. Henriette looks no better; I think it has an outside chance of peaking as a major, but I doubt that will happen personally. Ryan1000 19:15, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, the NHC understimated Henriette! It is currently at 80 kts/981 mbar. However, note that the hurricane has little time left. It only has 18 hours left to intensify further. Consequently, the NHC only expects Henriette to reach 85 knots before weakening. Also, I doubt Henriette will pull a Daniel. The NHC only gives it an 8% chance of becoming a major hurricane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:07, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Henriette is looking amazing,may be upgrade to mid to high cat 2 in the next advisory.Allanjeffs 22:34, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope Henriette becomes a Category 2! I am sick and tired of storms peaking as a cat 1. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 01:25, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Henriette's window is closing up. It is no stronger than it was six hours ago. Sorry guys, it has only 12 hours to become a 85 knot Category 2 before wind shear takes over. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:15, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Henriette has weakened a bit with the latest advisory, to 75 kt/983 mbar. Looks like our Category 2 will have to wait. *evil laughter* --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Spoke too soon, Dylan. Henriette's now at 100 mph/980 mbars. However, this should be it's peak. Ryan1000 14:52, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * WTF? I thought it was weakening! Well, it looks like we finally have a Category 2. Congratulations, Henriette! :D Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:00, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

Well it looks as though Henriette has finally broken the streak of category 1 hurricanes this year. It weakened a little bit last night, but then kind got a burst of moisture and then strengthened. Well Henriette wanted to impress us before leaving I guess. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 15:21, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

GO ON HENRIETTE WOOOOOO FINALLY WE HAVE A CAT 2 wasn't expecting that at all. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 16:03, August 8, 2013

(UTC)

I thought Henriette was weakening!!! Nice job, Henriette! However, the NHC does not expect a major hurricane. So the streak of non-major hurricanes should continue. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:23, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now up to 105, not bad, not bad. However, Henriette is incredibly small and should rapidly weaken soon, as it turns west-southwest and passes well away from Hawaii. Ryan1000 21:02, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well this isn't something I mind being wrong about :) Go, Henriette, go! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:24, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Down to 85 kt/981 mbar as it crosses into CPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:27, August 9, 2013 (UTC)

And now further down to 65 knots/992 mbar. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:17, August 9, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Henriette (2nd time)
Down to 60 kt/995 mbar. I was surprised by how much it weakened this morning - I expected a Category 1 Henriette, but not a marginal one. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:52, August 9, 2013 (UTC)

Cold water can do magic Dylan.Allanjeffs 15:45, August 9, 2013 (UTC)

Geez, this weakened fast! Well, at least Henriette became a Category 2. Cold water must be choking this storm to death. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:38, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's been weakening at a slower rate since that cold-water-induced plunge. Now it's at 45 kt/1001 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:20, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Henriette has been weakening slower now. I think it will dissipate in a couple of days. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:05, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now at 45 knots/1002 mbar. The CPHC now expects Henriette to die in 72 hours. She's hanging on. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:29, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Down to 35 kt/1008 mbar. Should be down and out soon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:56, August 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * The CPHC does not kill Henriette until Monday. She is slowly dying. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:11, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Henriette
Per a combination of JTWC, SAB, and CPHC fixes on Henriette, it has been downgraded to a 30 knot, 1009 mbar tropical depression. Although conditions are not very hostile and Henriette has developed some more convection, its small size exposes it to wind shear. In 48 hours, it will be nothing more than a forgotten memory. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:25, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Henriette
The hostile environment has choked Henriette to her death. Regeneration is not expected. Also, 2013 is now the first Pacific season since 2005 to have no major hurricanes out of its first eight storms. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:15, August 11, 2013 (UTC)