Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.  ~ Roy25     Happy Thanksgiving Day!!!  |  🦃     23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. -  PORY GONAL  13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  04:06, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019
Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Eastern Caribbean Sea
An AOI appears in the Caribbean Sea, at 10/20 as it moves northwestward toward the island of Hispaniola.  Sandy 156   :)  17:52, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Now invested as 95L according to Tropical Tibits.  Sandy 156   :)  18:28, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Land interaction is inhibiting it and environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly conducive until it reaches the Florida Straits, so we shouldn't see much from this in the short term. However this could be one to watch in the very long run. Chantal might come in early August (or even by the end of July if we're lucky) from this. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:08, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances decreased to 0/10, but can still form into next week or so, if possible.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 30, 2019 (UTC)

No longer in Tropical Tidbits' invests section, but still 0/10 on NHC's TWO, Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:11, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Finally off the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:10, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Africa
Although it's not on the TWO yet, Dr. Masters made a blog post discussing the probability for the development of an AOI that just moved off the coast of Africa and Cape Verde, and this signifies Cape Verde season is about to head up. Keep your eyes out...this might become something down the road. Ryan1000 01:51, July 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO with 0/20.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now increased to near 0/40.  Sandy 156   :)  00:15, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * This system is getting a bit concerning. This could be one to watch in the long run if it doesn't fall victim to any shear around the Eastern Caribbean. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:18, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/60 now. It seems that the Atlantic is waking up too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:09, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

The new GFS takes this to Newfoundland as a hurricane eventually, but the Euro doesn't develop this too much. Still a long ways to go before we can tell if anything big will happen with this. Ryan1000 21:23, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/70, this might have a chance of becoming Chantal soon.  Sandy 156   :)  02:38, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

It'll probably become Chantal...also, I included 95L in August in case it develops in the month, but otherwise, archived the rest of the stuff above it. Ryan1000 03:02, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
10/70. This is a system to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:24, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 20/70.  Sandy 156   :)  16:48, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

NHC says conditions will become unfavorable after it passes the upper Antilles, so this might only become a short-lived Chantal if it becomes a named storm. Ryan1000 18:50, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:10, August 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * 20/40, this is unlikely to form now.  Sandy 156   :)  17:56, August 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Further down to 20/30. Seems that all NHem basins are sub-par this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:36, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

It's still early August though, we have a lot of hurricane season left. Last year didn't have Florence until September, a month from now, 2017 didn't have Harvey until two weeks from now, and 2016 didn't get Matthew until October. Though it doesn't seem that this year will be as active right now, people shouldn't let their guard down. Ryan1000 14:34, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Will we get a hurricane like these picture perfect types  this year? I really hope so. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 14:53, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Keep things on topic please. Anyways, this won't become much of anything at this point, chances down to 20/20 and unfavorable conditions will set in soon. Ryan1000 22:10, August 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * 10/10, will likely dissipate soon. Ryan1000 15:40, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

And now near 0%. See ya. Ryan1000 20:23, August 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Sadly this failed to develop. Chantal's taking a while to show up! Maybe by the middle of the month we'll finally see her. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:54, August 5, 2019 (UTC)

Inactivity Break
an active af season expected from the noaa as a spanking new prediction report came out today. 10-17 lil' minions gonna be unleashed in your back garden. am thinking the most intense storms would be from the letters f-h this season. a category 4 fish storm is likely, imo. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 18:35, August 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic is really sleeping right now. At this rate, it might not be until almost the end of the month that Chantal finally comes. I just don't see this season being that active anymore, it would take a miracle late August/September explosion to see a very active season this year. We will probably only end at the I-L names this year to be honest. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * the charts say that the mjo phase will become more favorable, a cckw will push in, giving an abrupt sharp spike in activity. it's the dry sinking air promoted by a bad mjo phase. the season will likely end at about l-n. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 19:43, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Dr. Master's latest blog post says that there's a lot of dry air from the SAL over much of the tropical Atlantic, which is why the Atlantic is quiet for now, but a CCKW and the MJO will probably come into the basin by late August or September, and by then the basin will probably kick up a bit. Also, there's a possibility that a stalled frontal boundary could spawn a storm in the northern gulf next week, similar to how Barry formed. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this season could spike in activity later on, or produce a notable storm or two. Ryan1000 12:18, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Alright, I now think Chantal is possible in the next couple weeks, although it will probably come after my birthday from either the frontal boundary or a tropical wave once the CCKW and MJO moves in. If nothing forms by August 24, this year will have the latest "C" named storm since 1992, surpassing 2014. However I think Chantal this year will come at a similar time as Cristobal in 2014. Correcting my previous comment, if we get an explosion late this month into September, reaching the L-N names is a distinct possibility, although I think we will end around Karen. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:21, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Aw, man. Rebekah will have to wait ANOTHER six years. :( Beatissima (talk) 01:54, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

We might not get all the way to Rebekah this year, but we still have quite a bit of time left in the season, and if we get a sizeable pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation later in the month or September as Dr. Masters suggested, we could be in for something later on. Ryan1000 04:34, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Florida
Finally, the ATL has got an area of interest now over Florida moving towards the northeast. It's at 10/20 rn.  Sandy 156   :)  00:17, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * The wait has been killing us. Only 10/20 might not seem so convincing for development. But please become Chantal 🤗 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:22, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, at this rate we could have the latest "C" named storm since 1992... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
It has been invested, hopefully we see something! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:56, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/30, maybe there is a good chance of Chantal. It's got until Tuesday to develop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back down to 20/20... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:06, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * And down to 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 00:35, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Could we PLEASE get Chantal already? The chances for this one are diminishing and it'll have to pull a surprise tomorrow to become a TD or named TS. At this rate we could see a stormless August for the first time since 1997... The basin seems really hopeless for development in the near future. What a bust the Atlantic is this year... Might become the worst year I've ever tracked, and that would be saying something. Even 2013 was ahead in named storms at this point, and it looks likely 2019 will surpass 2014 for the latest "C" named storm of the century. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:34, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * I guess it's merciful that Hurricane Alley is getting a little break from overactive storm seasons. Even if it's only for a half-season and things pick up again next month. Beatissima (talk) 01:10, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Spiked up to 40/40. Beatissima (talk) 23:56, August 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, this could actually become Chantal... ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  01:53, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances raised to 100, finally Chantal's coming after more than a month long wait.  Sandy 156   :)  02:11, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chantal
Wtf, this caught me by surprise! We got Chantal, NHC's initiating advisories now. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  02:35, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, it's safe to say that Chantal surprised you on your birthday. The Atlantic finally came back to life. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:59, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chantal's a nice birthday present for sure. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  03:17, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * WHAAAAAAAAAT???? I had fully written this thing off as a bust, and all of a sudden it turns into Chantal? Kind of feels like Emily from two years ago. Oh and happy birthday Steve! Send Help Please  (talk) 03:33, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Same, this is such a shocking surprise! :O And thanks! ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  03:40, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently this is also the second-latest date for the third named storm of the season of the 21st century thus far, behind Cristobal of 2014 which formed on August 23, and this Chantal formed only 6 days later than the 2001 Chantal. It probably won't do much over the north Atlantic, but I will say, I did not expect this to form. Ryan1000 03:55, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * I hadn’t even checked the NHC site in a couple of days because I thought everything was just dead, and now, boom. Chantal coming out of nowhere. Leeboy100 Hello! 06:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Wow, this thing I never thought would form in the beginning became a named storm before that invest in the EPAC did! I expect this to be weak, though (watch this thing become a hurricane, okay I'm joking). TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 12:16, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * This is probably never going to surpass 45 or even 40 mph. While I'm glad to see a named storm this month, it's unfortunately on the failure TS side. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:02, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Chantal
Never made it past 40 mph.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  08:06, August 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on its last legs. Chantal is seriously playing with our emotions. First it rapidly organized to become Chantal, making us excited that there's finally a named storm in the Atlantic, and then she had to peak at the bare minimum and weaken afterwards, trolling us all. Chantfail didn't even try after being named. >:( I know conditions for Chantal weren't particularly conducive but hopefully Dorian is something better. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:17, August 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Apparently she's still kicking. Beatissima (talk) 22:40, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, Chantal still holding on and struggling to survive, which will succumb to stay alive much longer mostly likely in the next advisory or two.  Sandy 156   :)  23:35, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised Chantal is still alive but it's barely hanging on. Might be post-tropical/remnants by tonight though, or tomorrow morning at latest. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:51, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * It would be fun if Chantal later transitioned back to into tropical/sub-tropical system and kept going and going like Leslie. Beatissima (talk) 00:29, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal
See you in 2025, Chantal! Beatissima (talk) 02:42, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Bye Chantal, thank you for waking up the Atlantic!  Sandy 156   :)  03:13, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Bahamas
On the outlook at 0/20. Can this become Dorian? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:02, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/30, I think this'll become Dorian. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:18, August 22, 2019 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invested and at 30/60. Expected to move over Florida over the next day or two before recurving northeast and out to sea. It might become Dorian on the way. Ryan1000 11:41, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

Now 40/70. I have a feeling this'll become either Tropical Depression Five or Dorian. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 11:57, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 70/90! No Chantal until the back half of August, and now it looks like between this and 99L we might clear Erin before the end of the month. Reminds me of how 2010 started quiet (Alex notwithstanding) and then exploded after Danielle formed right around the same time Chantal did this year. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:20, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Also 12z UKMET makes this a 940 mbar Category 3 or 4 at around 40N on its way out to sea... is future Dorian determined to make up for his dud debut from 2013? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:31, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow the Atlantic is starting to explode. Looking like a race between this and 99L for Dorian. I hope it becomes strong as long as it's out to sea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:54, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

Still 70/90. Unless 90L organizes faster than this one, this system will become either PTC 6 or TD 6, and will most likely become Erin. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:50, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * My family is in SC this week. No doubt they'll get some swell from this. Beatissima (talk) 03:06, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Slightly down to 60/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:55, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back up to 70/80. Geez, this is taking a while to develop. Today's Air Force flight has been cancelled. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:28, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 80/80.  Sandy 156   :)  05:29, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 90/90. Expect Erin very soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:48, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Has finally formed into TD Six, expected to intesify into Erin very soon. Nickcoro (talk) 20:48, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Fixed the header. Anyways, it'll probably meander for a day or two before shooting northeast into Nova Scotia as a TS or STS. Ryan1000 22:10, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looking like it could be a name-stealer...unfortunately. It's got plenty of shear to deal with and they don't forecast anything beyond 45 mph. Looks like "Erin" might have to be used for another weakling this year unless it somehow stays below TS strength. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:28, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
I don't see this anywhere on the NHC's TWO, even on the 5-day outlook, but Tropical Tidbits says there's another invest in the central Atlantic between the Antilles and Africa, and it's expected to become a hurricane as it nears the upper Antilles by the initial model forecasts...this might become Erin if 98L gets to Dorian. Ryan1000 11:44, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * It looks like the Atlantic is finally waking up... TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 11:58, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO. 10/20 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:40, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

The initial intensity guidance for this AOI still takes it to category 2-3 intensity in 5 days...but the initial GFS runs are much more conservative on intensity, making it only a weak tropical storm as it moves past the upper Antilles, PR, and the DR. Hopefully the latter ends up being more accurate. Ryan1000 15:32, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 40/50. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:21, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60/70, we could see Erin by next week.  Sandy 156   :)  23:48, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Ok this thing exploded out of nowhere. After thinking this month would end with barely anything forming before Chantal came, we could now be up to Erin in the next couple days! I hope it's not a major long-term threat. Models on Tropical Tidbits take this into the Lesser and Greater Antilles and then it could threaten the U.S. Stay tuned... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:00, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Well, this escalated quickly. Beatissima (talk) 00:01, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five
Now a tropical depression by the NHC and is expected to be an 85 mph hurricane in five days. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 15:19, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * This system does not look good in the long run. Its forecast track for the first advisories seem oddly similar to Maria '17. Although I don't think it'll get nearly as strong as Maria did in the eastern Caribbean, this still very much bears watching. I just have a feeling inside me that this (future-Dorian) might be something significant in the future. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:04, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dorian
And here’s Dorian! Leeboy100 Hello! 21:07, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) 35 kts/1008 mbar and the NHC notes that the organization of the inner core has significantly improved... I have a sneaking suspicion that this might RI, but I hope I'm wrong. At least Dorian getting retired would pave the way for Dylan to take its place, I guess? :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:09, August 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah, looking at the forecast track, I’m starting to get a bad feeling about Dorian as well. The NHC already forecasts Dorian to hit the Caribbean islands as a hurricane. Dorian, please behave. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * This has been organizing pretty quickly and I have a bad feeling as well. Is it gonna RI? Hopefully not but it's not out of the question. If it pulls off RI, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola could be in serious danger. Too soon to know if it'll be significant when it approaches the U.S. mainland, but this is looking scary in the long run. Stay tuned. Lol Dylan, it would be funny if Dylan took the place of this storm if it's retired. I wish that someday a male "S" name is retired and replaced by Steve or Steven. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:45, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

The NHC said in their latest forecast discussion that Dorian does have some mid-level dry air to contend with as it moves west-northwest towards the Caribbean, which may limit the area of strongest convection near the center of the storm, but wind shear has significantly declined and SST's are ripe...if Dorian can pull something akin to Danny '15 and briefly RI to a major hurricane before hitting the lessers, it might become a severe storm for parts of the Caribbean...hopefully that dry air keeps the tiny MDR storm in check for the time being. Also, if it doesn't become too strong before hitting the DR, it might die over the island, which would elliminate any long-term severe impacts this might have to the U.S. That'd be a best-case scenario. Ryan1000 01:41, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * I hope Dorian wouldn't impact Hispanola as much as I thought. I also don't want Dorian to RI or a major right before it's landfall in the island (unless it somehow misses it). Forecast to become 80 mph hurricane for Dorian before its landfall by the NHC.  Sandy 156   :)  03:31, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are put up for Barbados, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Now forecast to peak at 75 mph by the NHC.  Sandy 156   :)  17:11, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * The Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola are expected to be impacted as a strong tropical storm and possibly as a hurricane. Hopefully it's not too bad. The best-case scenario would be for this to die out over Hispaniola, which would limit or even completely remove any threat to the mainland U.S. Unless a sudden RI episode occurs I don't expect anything more than a strong TS/minimal hurricane before it strikes Hispaniola. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:31, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensified to 50 mph. Yeah, a hurricane seems likely to be honest. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, August 26, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now up to 60 mph/1002 mbar.  Sandy 156   :)  14:32, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian's still forecast to be a minimal hurricane when it reaches the DR, but NHC says it'll probably only be a depression after it crosses the island, if Dorian survives at all. Long-range model forecasts eventually take it to eastern Florida but Dorian probably won't be more than a TS by that point, if that. Ryan1000 14:57, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, I might've spoken too soon, the track for Dorian has been shifting farther east recently and now he's only expected to clip at the eastern tip of the DR, or Dorian could even pass between the DR and Puerto Rico, which would minimize interaction with the mountains, and with the Bermuda high expected to build later in the forecast period, Dorian could become more threatening to the U.S. down the road than previously anticipated...behave yourself, Dorian... Ryan1000 22:10, August 26, 2019 (UTC)


 * 8 PM advisory is out, and keeps the winds the same, but actually raises the pressure to 1007. Leeboy100 Hello! 00:00, August 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * 11 pm advisory lowers the pressure and wind speed to 50/1003.  Sandy 156   :)  02:46, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

11 am, you mean. Anyhow, Dorian is only expected to be a TS after crossing near or through the passage between the eastern tip of the DR and western PR, as there is still quite a bit of dry air keeping Dorian in check, but even the NHC says they're puzzled as to why the dynaminc models like the HWRF and the global (GFS and Euro) models don't make Dorian stronger after passing north of the Antilles over expected 29 C waters and a moist environment...maybe the southern outflow from TD Six could bring some shear over the storm over the next day or two? Regardless, forecaster Stewart said that there is higher than usual uncertainty in days 4 and 5 regarding the intensity forecast for Dorian, so eastern Florida and north of there may have to watch out for him down the road. Ryan1000 17:49, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually it was 11 pm, Sandy posted at 02:46 UTC which was last night. At this point, the dry air will likely prevent it from reaching hurricane status before it strikes Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. However, I'm getting more and more concerned about Florida. Assuming it survives the Greater Antilles intact and still well-organized, conditions look favorable enough for potential strengthening to a hurricane. I don't think TD 6/potential-Erin will affect it much because it'll be shooting north into Atlantic Canada while Dorian is just entering the Bahamas. In summary, this is looking like a greater threat to the mainland U.S. as time goes on. Stay tuned. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:34, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Ah, my bad, either way, the intensity didn't notably change over that time. Dorian still might become something of a threat to eastern Florida down the road though. The intensity forecast has Dorian hitting near Cape Canaveral as a strong TS, and the forecast track now has Dorian moving far enough north of west to completely miss the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, which would put it into interaction with Puerto Rico more, but PR isn't as mountainous as the DR, so Dorian might not be interrupted as much by interaction with PR as he would over the DR. Ryan1000 21:49, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
This one just popped up, but is likely to move inland before development. 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 16:59, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * What a waste of an invest, it won’t even form unless it unexpectedly develops inland.  Sandy 156   :)  17:35, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it has very limited time to become anything. Unless it explodes offshore, a TD is out of the cards. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:05, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0%, development won't happen anymore. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:02, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:32, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - Continued the streak of pre-season storms. However, this was an epic failure, and never became fully tropical. A waste of a name if you ask me. The pre-season formation is the only thing that saved it from receiving the "Z" grade.
 * <font color="#FF5">Barry : <font color="#0A5">22%, <font color="#AF0">C - A very small chance of retirement due to the flooding it caused in and around Louisiana. Current damage total of >$600 million shouldn't be enough for the U.S. to retire the name, since they usually retire storms that cause more than a billion in damage. But impacts aside, at least we saw an early first hurricane.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Three : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#500">Z - If you blinked, you missed it. Incredibly short-lived failure that brought only showers to the Bahamas and Florida.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Harmless weak tropical storm. Gets a bit of grading credit for forming unexpectedly out of the blue and lasting a few days, but still a very weak system that never surpassed 40 mph/1009 mb.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dorian : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#FF5">C1 , <font color="#FD5">C2 , <font color="#FB5">C3 , <font color="#F85">C4 , <font color="#F55">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#905">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% , <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: 

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: Barry

Staying: Andrea, Chantal

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * Dorian - TBA. Forecast to impact the West Indies, impacts should become more clear in the long run.

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

None yet. One to watch: Dorian

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: --



How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Lorenzo.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Jerry or Karen, or go further to Melissa, Nestor, or Olga.
 * Pablo or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Imelda or before is also unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see around 2 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first of these systems may be Dorian at the end of August, while the second one could occur in late September or October. A 3rd one is not out of the cards.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 21:51, August 24, 2019 (UTC))
 * Chances that Erin will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should form from 98L.
 * Chances that Fernand will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - May arrive in late August, or early September at the very latest.
 * Chances that Gabrielle will be used: <font color="#300">99.999% - I expect to see this in early September, or end of August if an explosion occurs.
 * Chances that Humberto will be used: <font color="#300">99% - Will most likely be an early-mid September storm.
 * Chances that Imelda will be used: <font color="#500">95% - I would literally faint if this season somehow doesn't reach this new name. It should be here in mid September.
 * Chances that Jerry will be used: <font color="#900">85% - Highly likely to reach this name. May be a late September storm.
 * Chances that Karen will be used: <font color="#F00">74% - Also likely that we will reach this name, and might be an early-mid October storm.
 * Chances that Lorenzo will be used: <font color="#F60">60% - If this forms, it should be in mid-late October.
 * Chances that Melissa will be used: <font color="#CE0">48% - May or may not form this year. If it does form, I expect to see it at the end of October or in November.
 * Chances that Nestor will be used: <font color="#6C0">37% - Slight chance we reach up to here. Will most likely be a late-season or post-season surprise if it does come.
 * Chances that Olga will be used: <font color="#0A0">25% - We will possibly not get as far as we did last year, although there's still a chance.
 * Chances that Pablo will be used: <font color="#0AA">16% - I will be surprised if Pablo forms this year.
 * Chances that Rebekah will be used: <font color="#00A">9% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. Tying 2017's named storms is highly unlikely to occur this year.
 * Chances that Sebastien will be used: <font color="#03A">4% - Environmental conditions this year should not support this much activity.
 * Chances that Tanya will be used: <font color="#30A">1% - The Atlantic will have to really explode, contrary to forecasts for this season. Not going to happen.
 * Chances that Van will be used: <font color="#60A">0.5% - Not going to happen either. A strange miracle will have to take place to somehow get this far.
 * Chances that Wendy will be used: <font color="#95A">0.01% - Basically no chance at all that we will exhaust the naming list this year.
 * Chances that Alpha or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - I would have a better chance at getting struck by lightning or even winning the lottery than the Atlantic getting this far in 2019.

Sandy's retirements and grades
My turn to do retirements and grades!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#80CCFF">PTC, <font color="#5EBAFF">TD/SD , <font color="#00faf4">TS/SS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea :  F ,  0%  — Was notable for continuing the off-season streak forming in May and the sudden formation due to recon, however it was a weak and short-lived storm that never turned fully tropical. The off-season formation saved it from getting a Z.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Barry : <font color="#0099FF">C+ , <font color="#CCCC00">20%  — A July hurricane that made landfall in Louisiana, inflicting >$600 million (USD) and however only caused an indirect death. Barry was also the wettest tropical cyclone in Arkansas, dropping over 16 in (421 mm) in the state. I doubt Barry would go for its impacts since the WMO typically retire storms w/ a higher damage and death toll.


 * <font color="#5EBAFF">Three :  Z ,  N/A  — A short-lived and weak tropical depression. Do I even have to explain this further?


 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal :  D- ,  0%  — A weak fish that formed out of nowhere which surprised most of us. It held on for its life for 3 days, earning a D-.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Dorian : <font color="#0000FF">TBA  — Currently active storm, may be threat to Hispaniola in the near future.


 * <font color="#5EBAFF">Six : <font color="#0000FF">TBA  — Currently active.

That’s all for now folks!

 Sandy 156   :)  19:52, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 01:09, August 27, 2019 (UTC)]

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

 * Andrea: 0%
 * Barry: 10%
 * Three: N/A
 * Chantal: 0%
 * Dorian: currently active
 * Six: currently active

Beatissima (talk) 22:31, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

ChowKam's Retirement Predictions
Gotta rate these juicy storms... ''Note: I am rather extreme with my retirement predicions - if a storm seems unlikely to be retired, it won't be retired. If a storm seems likely to be retired, it will be retired.''
 * Andrea: 0% - Was weak. But still, a pre-season storm is nice.
 * Barry: 5% - A nice, weird early season hurricane. Damages shouldn't warrant retirement.
 * Three: N/A - While technically a failure, it was a nice depression to watch.
 * Chantal: 0% - Weak, but was a surprise weird formation. Lasted a bit.
 * Dorian: Currently Active

ChowKam2002 (talk) 16:06, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Harveycane's predictions and grades
Overview=

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#D4AF37">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Formation chance/retirement percentages:
 * <font color="#666">0% 
 * <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9%  (Nearly 0%)
 * <font color="#00FFFF">1-9%  (Extremely unlikely)
 * <font color="#00D5D5">10-19%  (Very unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A0A0">20-29%  (Unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A000">30-39%  (Somewhat unlikely)
 * <font color="#FFC800">40-49%  (Medium)
 * <font color="#FF8800">50-59%  (Somewhat likely)
 * <font color="#E80000">60-69%  (Likely)
 * <font color="#B40000">70-79%  (Very likely)
 * <font color="#800000">80-89%  (Extremely likely)
 * <font color="#000000">90-99%  (Nearly certain)
 * <font color="#000080">100%  (Certain)

Retirement predictions and grades=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Weak, forgettable, short lived. Need I say more?
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Barry : <font color="#00A0A0">25%, <font color="#CF0">C - It was destructive, but not destructive enough to grant retirement. However, we did get the first and probably only hurricane from this.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Three : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#600">Z - Sorry, but you were one pathetic storm. We all thought we would see Chantal from this, but nope.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - After over a month and a half of waiting for the next named storm to form, all we get is this forgettable failure. However, its still better than nothing.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dorian : <font color="#000">TBA%, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active, and its causing damage in the Lesser Antilles area. I don't think this will cause a lot of damage IMO.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Six : <font color="#000">TBA%, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active.

Overall season rating (tentative): <font color="#F60">D  - Although not really surprising, since this season was practically doomed from the start to be potentially inactive compared to the active streak we saw this past three years. Future storm formation chances = Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE): Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  08:46, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * <font color="#000">Erin : <font color="#000080">100% - Most likely coming from TD Six.
 * <font color="#000">Fernand : <font color="#000080">100% - May appear around peak season.
 * <font color="#000">Gabrielle : <font color="#000080">100% - Will form sometime around the peak of the season.
 * <font color="#000">Humberto : <font color="#000080">100% - We could possibly see this in late September.
 * <font color="#000">Imelda : <font color="#000000">91% - Can form by early October, as long as the uptick in activity actually happens.
 * <font color="#000">Jerry : <font color="#B40000">78% - Unless activity is doomed to be inactive the whole year, we will most likely see this.
 * <font color="#000">Karen : <font color="#E80000">63% - This is around where my certainty of these numbers begins to fall. We may see this or not depending on the basin's performance.
 * <font color="#000">Lorenzo : <font color="#FFC800">45% - This is probably where we will end this year, presuming that the season will have a near average September-October.
 * <font color="#000">Melissa : <font color="#00A000">32% - May come as a late season surprise.
 * <font color="#000">Nestor : <font color="#00A0A0">25% - Storm names from here are unlikely to be used. Unless we get an "explosion" in activity, this is unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Olga : <font color="#00D5D5">17% - Unfortunately, we may not go this far at this rate. Reaching up to 2018's levels of activity is very unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Pablo : <font color="#00FFFF">9% - I don't think we will get here this season.
 * <font color="#000">Rebekah : <font color="#00FFFF">4% - Very, very unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Sebastien : <font color="#00FFFF">1% - You will have to defy climatology to get here at this point.
 * <font color="#000">Tanya : <font color="#AFFFFF">0.5% - Again, you can't get here without defying climatology.
 * <font color="#000">Van, Wendy and beyond: <font color="#666">0% - If you think we will get to here you are crazy. Jk, but seriously, it is NOT likely at all to get this far into the season.

Post-season Changes
First TCR of the season is up, for Andrea. Lasted for 18 hours before dissipating.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:57, August 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Added the table for reference. Doesn't appear like there were any notable changes to Andrea, besides the advisory times (advisories were operationally issued at 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC, but NHC just put it to 1800 UTC on the 20th, or 2 PM EDT) for convenience. Ryan1000 20:47, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Three is also out too, since NHC doesn't have as much work this month.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Pressure got nerfed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 20:31, August 21, 2019 (UTC)