Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

July
Has begun but i'm still bored and waiting for something to come. Ryan1000 01:18, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Hey! We still got Arlene out there! Andrew444 01:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ah, sorry Andrew. It's probrably going to die out anyways. If you want to put last advisory issued on the Archive, then fine... Ryan1000 02:26, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah July, the month where I wont have internet for 3 weeks. Have fun without me everyone! (I leave on the 4th and come back on the 24th) Yqt1001 02:33, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * And here's a warm welcoming to the 2012 forum(I just felt like making it early). Ryan1000 04:16, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression Arlene
Okay... the NHC is giving the remnant low of Tropical Depression Arlene a near 0% chance of forming. I don't think it will because post-Arlene has to face mountains. Andrew444 13:18, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Near Puerto Rico
This was a pleasant surprise. This is apparently a wave interacting with a trough. They're giving it 0%, but I think the reason that they're mentioning it is because there is model support for the northern part of the wave to split in the W. Carib., form, and either hit Cuba and the US or hit Cuba and wander away. Darren 23 Edits 15:43, July 2, 2011 (UTC)

Well, if the AOI hits the U.S., it would be nice to see. Andrew444 20:55, July 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * This isn't really the time of the year when (catastrophic) hurricanes hit the U.S, or anywhere, but it's worth developing, we could use some activity. The tropics have gone into a slumber since Arlene, but it won't last for more than one or two weeks, I'd say. Ryan1000 21:09, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now..it's gone. Andrew444 01:31, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * That was a bit faster than I expected. Yqt1001 02:00, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not gone... there's just no absolute way it's gonna form in the next 48 hours. I've got a feeling it's gonna form in 96-144 hrs. Darren 23 Edits 02:02, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don't write this system off yet. Well, I'm likely not going to be on the forum for
 * the 4th, so see you guys on the 5th if this system is still worth watching. OWEN2011 20:38, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not going to develop in the near future(24-48 hours), but 5 days to a week from now, we could have Bret on our hands. It's future is looking is looking a little grim, but it will take some time for development. Ryan1000 02:33, July 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Massive curved deep convection (as of now) looks very promising. I'm going with formation within about 48 hours. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  00:31, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nah, it's only brief. It's not even mentioned on the TWO, nor will it be. It will have to persist for a couple of days as it heads west-northwest for it to fully develop. I will watch out for Bret several days from now, but not tomorrow. Ryan1000 03:12, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It doesn't matter really much if it goes on TWO or not IMO. A lot of time NHC is slow on storms like these, remember 93L, it formed out of thin air and got quite organized for a while, prompting NHC to skip to 30%. As of now, it is exhibiting deep convection and a curved banding to the south and east, and wind shear is marginally favorable for development tomorrow. It is over warm ocean, who know what it might become of. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  04:33, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * This isn't normally the time of year killer hurricanes affect the U.S, but some July storms have done that... Dennis and Emily of 2005 were the last two... Before that there's 1996's Bertha, before that there's the 1916 major hurricane in Alabama, and there were a few June storms like 1966's Alma and 1957's Audrey that were also rather bad starters. What worries me a little more is it's track, either through southern Florida into the Gulf, or roll up the east coast and head out to sea. I don't like what it looks like as of now, but will it intensify fast enough? This storm is looking somewhat threatening as of now. If it can hold onto it's looks for some more time then (Bret) might just be able to cause some trouble. Ryan1000 05:51, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, a US landfall could happen from Future Bret. Since 2009, only three storms have hit (Claudette, Ida, and Bonnie). Could this be the fourth? Andrew444 12:07, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it fell down again. It appears it's undergoing interaction with some shear and dry air, which will hinder it as it slowly heads WNW. I am watching out for Bret, but it isn't going to form right now. Ryan1000 16:30, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Aaaand it's gone, pretty much. I can hardly see this thing on the sattelite imagery, and it's barely hanging on as a wave. It's slowly heading west, but the chances of redevelopment are next to none as of now. Ryan1000 15:37, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's gone. Darren 23 Edits 15:49, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Damn! I was wrong here too. Back up to 10% Darren 23 Edits 17:46, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gah! Beat me to it, a$$hole! I was just about to say that. >:( Ryan1000 17:53, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gah! Beat me to it, a$$hole! I was just about to say that. >:( Ryan1000 17:53, July 6, 2011 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
I personally don't see why they tagged this system. It's under intense shear, and the only thing that develops it is CMC and (D)SHIPS, which brings it to 44 kts. I mean, really? I think tagging was a waste of time. Darren 23 Edits 15:05, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * And another thing. They're sending recon at 8/1700. Thats 25 hrs from now. Darren 23 Edits 15:50, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I personally don't see this thing developing, but it does seem to be a threat to the US. OWEN2011 16:58, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's now up to 20%, but still. That nice looking ULL over the GOM is providing intense shear and dry air. Can 96L fight it? It's giving it a decent shot, but still doubt it will form. Too many things are against it at this point. Darren 23 Edits 17:52, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * It likely won't be able to go against it; the shear is just too intense. If this thing was TD 3-E in the East Pacific, it would be a different story. As I mentioned earlier, July normally isn't a very active month. We sometimes get activity in July but not very much usually, and the chances of us getting destructive, powerful storms at this time of year are very low. 2005, 1996, and 1916 are a few exeptions, but it's still not common. In August the shear settles down and we may get more activity or destructive storms, and September is the month of reckoning, when we get the most severe activity in the Atlantic. October has a chance of dangerous Caribbean storms, some of which have sneak attacked Florida from the south after crossing Cuba, but now just isn't the time of extreme activity in the Atlantic basin. I will be on the lookout, but the chances of 96L becoming Bret are about the same as TD 3-E NOT becoming Calvin. It's still worth watching though... Ryan1000 18:16, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I don't see 96L becoming Bret, or the AOI even being TD Three. Andrew444 18:24, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, we don't know whether it will become Bret or not. We just have to wait. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  18:40, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * HurricaneSpin, the atmospheric conditions aren't in favor of this storm developing. It has a chance to develop into Bret, but it's not very likely, and most of the models aren't showing it becoming Bret, let alone TD 2. We still have to wait until the heart of the season comes. The shear it's under is just too severe for signifigant development. The NHC is only giving it a 20% chance of developing, and the storm itself is already interacting with central Florida. It likely won't develop due to unfavorable shear and interaction with land. The area of thunderstorms north of south America are at 10%, but once again the shear isn't in favor of it. But I'm not very surprised, it's only July, the second least active month, followed by June and November tied, just about. We go from second least active to second most active from July to August, so the change in conditions may allow further development of latter storms in the season. Ryan1000 19:21, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * HSpin: Yes, we don't know if it will become Bret or not, but there is a huge chance it won't become Bret. Land is too close, shear+dry air in that ULL, and you remember what happened to Bonnie when it basically married that ULL last year. Darren 23 Edits 20:14, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, with Bonnie the only minor difference was it actually managed to at least crack a minor TS landfall on south Florida. Heck, if Bonnie didn't develop out of that low, 2010 would have been the first hurricane season since 1990 without a single Hurricane or Tropical Storm hit the U.S, although TD2 hit the border at Mexico and the U.S. at Brownsville last year at this time, just like Marco of '90 weakening to a TD just before it's landfall. Ryan1000 20:52, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
 * HSpin: Yes, we don't know if it will become Bret or not, but there is a huge chance it won't become Bret. Land is too close, shear+dry air in that ULL, and you remember what happened to Bonnie when it basically married that ULL last year. Darren 23 Edits 20:14, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, with Bonnie the only minor difference was it actually managed to at least crack a minor TS landfall on south Florida. Heck, if Bonnie didn't develop out of that low, 2010 would have been the first hurricane season since 1990 without a single Hurricane or Tropical Storm hit the U.S, although TD2 hit the border at Mexico and the U.S. at Brownsville last year at this time, just like Marco of '90 weakening to a TD just before it's landfall. Ryan1000 20:52, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
 * AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 * Not Surprsing to me. Looks as people think this is a surprise. 96.242.128.37 00:01, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * In your face. Up to forty percent. For all of you that doubted 96L from the beginning. - HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:09, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, it's fun to see activity, isn't it? And I do think this will be Bret. Also, if 96L makes landfall in the U.S.,we could benefit from it. BTW... It appears we have a new user (96.242.128.37). Welcome to the Hurricane Wiki, 96.242! Andrew444 00:25, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * No offense, but I am irritated of the imaturity of being happy about this. This a serious thing. I don't know if you share what I believe in, but I think tracking and forecasting these unpredictable things is interesting, but it's not supposed to be fun. For my sake, please, don't be happy when a storm forms. Anyway, I am very surprised they gave a 40% chance. As that ULL moves further west, it will continue to kill it with shear. I don't think the NHC did this right. I can barely spot that COC. There are too many things against it. If it somehow forms, great, droughtbuster. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:33, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree with Darren23, Andrew444, it's not exciting to have activity near land. People can be devastated from 96L, you know. That's just immature and irresponsible. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:41, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree it's interesting to watch, but even so, this storm likely won't be so bad when it does come ashore, and it could bring some rain to the south, not exactly much-needed, but beneficial. And I actually agree with Andrew to a certain extent here; Darren and HurricaneSpin, we need to have tropical cyclones make landfall in the southern U.S. because they are the basis of rainfall for crop growth there during the summer months. Not exactly to say we want to have a monster category 5 hurricane like Andrew make landfall there, but if tropical cyclones never made landfall in the U.S, the south would be more like a desert than an oasis. Cold fronts do provide rain, but the majority of summer rainfall in the southern states comes from tropical cyclone-based systems. Now, again, if this was a monster hurricane bearing down on U.S. soil, then cheering would be the last thing I would want to hear about. In the case of Barry in 2007, that storm wasn't harmful in any way; in fact, there were lots of wildfires raging across Florida in May 2007 because the Bermuda High had stayed over the state for quite some time, preventing rainfall from coming into the state. When Andrea came around in May, it just pushed the fires further south because the rain failed to reach the coastline, but the outer wind bands did. Barry helped douse the wildfires out with the rainfall it brought at the start of June. Yes it killed 2 people, but it saved hundreds more from having their homes(and/or lives) burned up. In cases like that, tropical cylones are good. A similar situation happened in 2006, but instead of Alberto, there was a huge cold front that was able to force the Bermuda high out to sea in April of that year to help the rain-stricken state get some water. They could have used some more from Alberto, but it wasn't the same case as Barry.
 * I agree it's interesting to watch, but even so, this storm likely won't be so bad when it does come ashore, and it could bring some rain to the south, not exactly much-needed, but beneficial. And I actually agree with Andrew to a certain extent here; Darren and HurricaneSpin, we need to have tropical cyclones make landfall in the southern U.S. because they are the basis of rainfall for crop growth there during the summer months. Not exactly to say we want to have a monster category 5 hurricane like Andrew make landfall there, but if tropical cyclones never made landfall in the U.S, the south would be more like a desert than an oasis. Cold fronts do provide rain, but the majority of summer rainfall in the southern states comes from tropical cyclone-based systems. Now, again, if this was a monster hurricane bearing down on U.S. soil, then cheering would be the last thing I would want to hear about. In the case of Barry in 2007, that storm wasn't harmful in any way; in fact, there were lots of wildfires raging across Florida in May 2007 because the Bermuda High had stayed over the state for quite some time, preventing rainfall from coming into the state. When Andrea came around in May, it just pushed the fires further south because the rain failed to reach the coastline, but the outer wind bands did. Barry helped douse the wildfires out with the rainfall it brought at the start of June. Yes it killed 2 people, but it saved hundreds more from having their homes(and/or lives) burned up. In cases like that, tropical cylones are good. A similar situation happened in 2006, but instead of Alberto, there was a huge cold front that was able to force the Bermuda high out to sea in April of that year to help the rain-stricken state get some water. They could have used some more from Alberto, but it wasn't the same case as Barry.


 * In other words, saying we "don't want hurricanes" is incorrect because we need them for rainfall, saying we "don't want catastrophic hurricanes" would be better. There were several places in the U.S. that had set near-record if not record low ammounts of rainfall in 2010 because there were no hurricanes that hit the U.S. last year. There was no source of rainfall for much of the south, and crops withered and died in many areas. Heck, 2010 ties for having the warmest year ever known. The only storm to hit the U.S. to any signifigant extent in 2010 was Hermine, which brought some flooding to Texas, about 150 million in damages, but Florida did not get hit with anything other than the daily afternoon rainshower in Miami known as Bonnie. Ryan1000 01:45, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

You do mean 250 million. Anyway, I'm not dumb. I know their benefits, and you don't have to be so verbose about it. But let's show some restraint for god's sake and at least not display that fun when there's nothing fun about it. It is serious, dangerous, yet interesting. Not fun. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:14, July 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ah, I forgot it was upped from 150 million earlier. And yes, I agree these awe-inspiring events aren't "fun", but they aren't always "bad" either. Anyways, back to 96L, I am also surprised it got to 40% given the environment, but it won't last long, and I can't see Bret coming from this one. As for the other invest, I can see it becoming Bret in the long run, interaction with land and the shear in the east Caribbean are the only hindering factors as of now. Ryan1000 02:35, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. Oh... suckers to those whose thought 96L was gonna be Bret! Andrew444 12:36, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess our 2nd tropical cyclone will have to wait. OWEN2011 15:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess our 2nd tropical cyclone will have to wait. OWEN2011 15:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess our 2nd tropical cyclone will have to wait. OWEN2011 15:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

And now near 0%. AKA... it's down and out. Ryan1000 17:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still near 0%. Dunno what NHC is up to. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:37, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * They should've gotten rid of it 2 TWOs ago... <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:47, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: East of French Guyana
There is a nice looking tropical wave associated with the ITCZ north of Brazil/east of French Guyana. The wave already has surface convergence and (if I'm reading this right) upper divergence. Shear is light to moderate over the system. MJO is favorable across the basin. The major hindrance I see is South America. It will be moving in a general direction of WNW-NW, so it will stray close to the coastline. Currently, there's no model support, but I see CMC hinting at something (which is not surprising. After all, it's Canadian!) This wave should be watched for further development, especially when it reaches the Caribbean. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:06, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS also seems to be hinting at something too. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:56, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I normally don't look forward to big storms in July, but given the conditions in the Caribbean, and the fact the U.S. has escaped big time for the past 6 years, aside from Ike/Gustav in 2008, any wave should be watched out for. Ryan1000 17:28, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 10% now, but they don't expect development. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:05, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think that this system has a better chance than 96L. Would be interesting what the
 * NHC will have this system at on the next TWO. OWEN2011 17:00, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * There's quite a bit of shear in the eastern Caribbean, something not unusual for July. I expect some activity as this storm slowly heads WNW, but it has a less likely chance of development than 96L does. Ryan1000 18:19, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Like I said in the 96L section, I REALLY don't think this'll be Cindy, or even TD Three. Andrew444 18:26, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, what? I REALLY dont think this will be Cindy because I think this will be Bret :P. Anyway, this has the best chance overall. Shear, as of now, is moderate. I'm not concerned that this will form before it hits Venezuela, but environmental conditions are very favorable afterwards, aside from the TUTT in the Eastern Caribbean. I think this has a very decent chance (about 40%) of becoming Bret in the Western Caribbean about a week or so from now. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:09, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * The tropical upper trophospheric trough is exactly why I think it will not develop in the near future(next 48 hours), because it will produce shear over this storm. However, if this wave somehow manages to get past that trough, then we're in trouble. =( Ryan1000 20:48, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more yellow circle. Andrew444 17:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's off NHC. It has a chance to become Bret later when it reaches the western Caribbean, but as of now it's gone. Ryan1000 17:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more yellow circle. Andrew444 17:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's off NHC. It has a chance to become Bret later when it reaches the western Caribbean, but as of now it's gone. Ryan1000 17:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's off NHC. It has a chance to become Bret later when it reaches the western Caribbean, but as of now it's gone. Ryan1000 17:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

AOI:Western Caribbean

 * And we need to talk about this one again. GFS is trying to develop a weak low east of Belize associated with this tropical wave. NGP also has this, but much, much stronger. CMC, surprisingly doesn't have it. While this should be watched, it will have competition (like Arlene). Unlike Arlene, I have a feeling that the EPAC one will win this time. But again, this should be watched for further development. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:59, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * And what a surprise... near 0% <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:42, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * But it won't have a chance, it's nearing land. Andrew444 20:23, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I doubt it will form on East of Nicaragua. I think it needs to be carefully watched for development in the W. Carib. Even then, I still doubt it will form. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:12, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 10%. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:41, July 12, 2011 (UTC)

97L.Invest
And out of the blue, 97L is here. This thing has a 50% chance of becoming Bret until it moves into Mexico later today; anyhow I don't think it's going to happen. Ryan1000 13:56, July 13, 2011 (UTC)

I am very surprised. Looks it may be similar to Bret in 2005. I think though it will not

be as strong as Arlene was. 50% chance. I think it would be a TD if convection was

deep enough. 96.242.128.37 15:42, July 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * Nah, it's just about to make landfall, it likely won't become even TD 2. Ryan1000 16:08, July 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the thing about 97L. It doesn't have a very good circulation, and judging from radar, it has about 6-12 hours to make landfall, or even less. The satellite presentation is... marginally okay. But I do think 97L has a chance, and that chance is that an NHC forecaster (my money is on Stewart, but he may not be on the next shift) will upgrade this to TD2 because of its proximity to land and/or the marginal structural appearance it's displaying. Either way, I only give it a 30% chance of becoming TD2, and a 5% chance of becoming Bret. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:30, July 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm not really expecting Bret. It's too close to land, and the 2005 TS Bret was much better organized(and looking) than 97L is right now. Ryan1000 17:18, July 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bye 97L. Good shot at TD though. 96.242.128.37 21:27, July 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at Near 0%, it didn't become a tropical cyclone. Oh well, time to wait. :( Andrew444 02:13, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at Near 0%, it didn't become a tropical cyclone. Oh well, time to wait. :( Andrew444 02:13, July 14, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Suriname
Another coast-hugging tropical wave is now in the NHC. Only 10% at this time, and the NHC doesn't expect significant development, but as the MJO is in the area, it has to be monitored for development as it marches across the Caribbean. A TUTT will be providing shear for the system once it enters the Caribbean, however, which should limit significant development of this system. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:06, July 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not looking at the Tropical Upper-Trophospheric Trough with this one... I'm thinking it will run into the other area of disturbed weather once it reaches the western Caribbean and get sheared by the other AOI. Eiher way, development of this system or the other one by Nicaragua is not expected. Bret will likely have to wait. And the SAL off of Africa is still quite thick for the other AOI... I'm currently on the lookout for Ma-On in the WPac, out of TD 08W, which is currently heading further west, possibly towards China or Taiwan in the next week. Ryan1000 04:58, July 12, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
This AOI is well over 2 days from exiting Africa, but GFS is hinting at a low developing in the Eastern Atlantic/MDR. Again, it's a long way away, but this could be the first Cape Verde-type storm this season, and as with all Cape Verde waves, it should be watched closely for development. Also, if it does move across the Atlantic, chances are it's going to the Northern Leewards rather than the open Atlantic unlike the others we saw last year. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:06, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's now about halfway between Africa and the Leewards. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:56, July 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's at 90% now (I'm confused, is it this one that's going to be a TD? Or is it that other AOI?) Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 18:38, July 20, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Panama
CMC, GFS, NOGAPS and ECMWF (sort of) are developing a low coming from that disturbance north of Panama in about 2-3 days. GFS has this moving north for a few hours then move west to west-southwest then make landfall on the Panama-Nicaragua border. CMC has basically the same thing, but has it making landfall a few miles north than where the GFS has it making landfall. ECMWF hints at some kind of low forming, but doesn't do anything with it. NOGAPS has this going north of both GFS and CMC and has this making landfall just south of Cabo Gracias a Dios. The interesting part of this is that GFS and CMC keeps it a tropical cyclone throught the passage (It's really one of the shortest passages a hurricane can really go through without dying. Joan-Miriam and Cesar-Douglas (which coincidentally was the last basin crosser to retain tropical cyclone status) went through the same area. After that, they have this storm moving northwest and possibly threaten Central America/Mexico. If this pans out, this would be a very interesting storm meteorologially but very very dangerous. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:38, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 10% <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:45, July 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * So if this becomes a tropical cyclone, achieves TS status and survives the passage we have Bret-Dora? 96.242.128.37 17:51, July 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not fully qualified to say yes, but I think that it will keep its Atlantic name if it were to cross Central America as a tropical cyclone. But a TS probably wouldn't be able to survive the passage, TS's are pretty weak. Also model support has been reduced to the GFS and the NOGAPS now only developing it once it crosses Central America. Yqt1001 18:04, July 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * If a storm crosses basins as a tropical cyclone (doesn't matter if it's a TD or TS or HU), then it will retain its original name. For example: If TD 11E (2010) remained tropical while it crossed Mexico, it will remain as TD 11E in the Atlantic (but if it strengthened, it would have had the name Hermine. Still with me?). Another example. If TS Alma remained at least a TD when it emerged in the Western Caribbean, it would have retained its name in the Atlantic basin. Another Example: If Hurricane Joan was around today, when it crossed Central America and emerged in the Pacific, it would still have been named Joan. IIRC, the same goes for every basin crosser now because it's a WMO agreement. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 18:37, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not everywhere. If a storm crosses from SWIO into Australian Region it retains the name, if it crosses from Perth to Reunion it will be renamed. --88.102.101.245 06:22, July 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * So no more two name hurricanes? :( Bah, that ruins the fun in hoping for them to survive the crossing over Central America! Yqt1001 20:34, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Unless... a tropical cyclone was deemed to have dissipated or lost tropical cyclone characteristics operationally but in post-storm analysis it was found out it did not, therefore it was the same tropical cyclone, therefore, a two name hurricane. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:01, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, you are right about the two-name policy not existing anymore with cross-over storms, but it will always exist in the WPac with storms that are given names by PAGASA and JMA. Typhoon Songda can also be called Typhoon Chedeng, or Tropical Storm Aere can also be called Tropical Storm Bebeng. Ryan1000 22:53, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * I was counting on Marco's remnants to form Polo back in 2008. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:01, July 14, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan, I classify those differently. I call WPAC ones concurrent two-name. But when I say two name in a conversation, I mean crossover/hyphenated two names, i.e. Cesar-Douglas, etc. It's because you don't really talk about those concurrent two-namers. You do talk about basin-crossing two named storms. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:21, July 15, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Off the FL/GA border
A weak 1014 hPa low has developed associated with a front just a few dozen miles away from the United States. Initially, models had this system developing into a tropical storm, but a few days ago, they have dropped that solution. Still, this could develop as it remains nearly stationary in the next 2 days. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:00, July 16, 2011 (UTC)

98L.Invest
This sucker is now an invest and at 20%. I have a feeling this may be Bret soon. It's close to the Gulf Stream, and the NHC says conditions may become favorable in the next few days. This one's got to be watched. *ahem* Hurricane Gaston (2004). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:03, July 16, 2011 (UTC)

The tropics sure are active. We have this, the two EPac invests, and Ma-on. Back to the topic. Yes, a tropical cyclone is possible within the next few days. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 21:23, July 16, 2011 (UTC)

Uh oh, 98L is at 30% now. This could be trouble if this becomes the second tropical cyclone of the 2011 AHS. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 13:59, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

Whoever thinks this will be Bret, say "I'. OWEN2011 14:16, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

I. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 14:40, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

I, this will be more like a Cristobal than a Gaston. Either way, me and YE invites Andrew444 to come to our IRC, it's at ##hurricanes on freenode, we discuss hurricanes on there most of the time. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  19:35, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

I, and I think this may be a TD by tonight or tomorrow because of the recon data (even though the pressures are an unbelievably high 1010 hPa). Apparently west winds have been recorded with this system (I haven't checked as I've been out all day, but Wunderground has been buzzing). Before recon came I would have said Dora before Bret, but now I think Bret will become a TS first. And there's a large spread in the models, so I'm not even gonna get into that. DSHIPS has this going to 50 kts, but that's with BAMM going to FL. I'm gonna go ahead and be bold and say this could become a strong TS approaching 'cane strength. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:01, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
Whoops, it is a TD :P <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:10, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm predicting a Cristobal like storm. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:14, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmmm... it does look like a Cristobal. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:21, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * What the... really? I never saw this one jumping onto us so soon. And no, this storm will not do anything but spin fish. Oh well. We could use a TS or two in the Atlantic by now. Here comes Bret. Ryan1000 21:23, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * It could give Bahamians a good surf but other than that, just a fish. Hmmm... that makes me hungry (not for 'canes, but real fish :P). A little off topic but I have a feeling by month's end we'll see another ATL storm (either in CATL or GOM)<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:15, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Vortex messages suggest that this storm might be a TS. Max unflagged SFMR winds are 45kts. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:15, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cristobal was more of a coast hugger, this one might not. The steering winds are more westerly than southerly. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:28, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bret
We have Bret! - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:58, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

How can this be? I only saw a invest 9 hours ago, now Bret? Wow... Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 00:58, July 18, 2011 (UTC) MARK 28.25N/76.98W
 * I didn't see it either. I thought this had a chance, but I thought it won't become much of anything. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:07, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bret is an interesting storm. I am forecasting modest intensification for Bret, and a peak of 50-55 kt IMO. reminds me of Cristobal 02. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * WTF??? Really? Are you kidding me? I was expecting to see Bret much later today. This cracker exploded fom a TD to a TS as soon as it got it´s act together. I don´t think Bret will continue exploding at this rate for the next 14 hours like Humberto did in 2007, but it certainly got me by surprise for now. Ryan1000 03:50, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bret is now a 45 kts TS... much more than I expected at this time. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 12:10, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bret forming yesterday makes us 2 weeks ahead of climatology. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:31, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eyewall looks to be trying to form. 96.242.128.37 18:45, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmmm... every time I see an appearance like that it always reminds me of Gustav 08. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 18:58, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh, and um, it's now a 50 kt storm. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:00, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * It´s not going to last long though. It may get to 60 mph, but it will be moving over progressively colder waters and higher shear over the next several days. It may just be forgotten...Ryan1000 19:29, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * IT is 60 mph, now, but want get past 55 knt. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:36, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * 02L/H/B/C1
 * 02L/H/B/C1
 * 02L/H/B/C1
 * Hurricane Bret unofficialy? If it is the NHC will have to up their forecast
 * a little. 96.242.128.37 19:48, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bret is now at 65 mph, a hurricane is possible now if it could strengthen a bit more. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 23:38, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nah. I mentioned earlier it´s moving over colder waters and stronger shear. It´s a minimal TS as of now(50 mph and decreasing) and it will slowly die down further over the next couple of days. Ryan1000 22:57, July 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 50 mph. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 12:33, July 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bret hanging on as a 40mph storm. OWEN2011 16:19, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 50 mph. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 12:33, July 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bret hanging on as a 40mph storm. OWEN2011 16:19, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bret hanging on as a 40mph storm. OWEN2011 16:19, July 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Bret
And he's finally back down to a depression. 11 pm advisory places him at 30 kts, 1008 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 03:10, July 22, 2011 (UTC)

Post- Tropical Cyclone Bret
The last advisory has been issued. The cyclone is expected to be gone entirely in the next 24 hours. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 16:35, July 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Going, going... gone. --HurricaneMaker99 14:54, July 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Finally off NHC. Cindy will be as well, pretty soon. Ryan1000 01:55, July 23, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Cape Verdes
It's really southeast of the Cape Verdes, not much model output. But might be of a future storm. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:28, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * You mean the huge TW west of Cape Verde which exited yesterday? It looked very vigorous yesterday, but it's gonna encounter the SAL (which has been weaker than normal this year... hint hint). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:39, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SAL is still pretty thick right now, just not where it was last year or so. This wave will run into a crapload of dry air tomorrow, so no, it won´t develop for the time being. It may develop in the far future(1 week from now), but as of now it´s got a grim day coming for it tomorrow. Ryan1000 23:09, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * My "hint hint" was this year may not have the luxury of an extensive SAL for a small part of the season. Again, CV season is very close, and a CV hurricane is not unfathomable as MJO will come back to the area a second time. (It was, it went in the "igloo" and GFS has it coming back to this basin, which makes sense because ATL has the highest concentration of warm SST's). CV season may give us a rude awakening. The Bermuda high is positioned in such a way which doesn't permit much CV fish like last year. Again, it's hard not to ignore the facts, so we have to prepare. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:32, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
We have an area to watch for Cindy, north of Bermuda. 60%! 96.242.128.37 13:08, July 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * It´s hard for me to see last year had so many fishes despite the number of named storms, but the SAL is, for the time being, holding up against the Cape Verde season. Let´s hope it does long enough, because the heart of hurricane season is approaching, and by then, the Atlantic will lose it´s mind like it has done for the past 16 years(apart from ´97, ´06, and ´09)... The ATL will not lose it´s mind as much as it did last year, but a 2008 or 2004 repeat is what´s currently scaring me the most. Ryan1000 03:56, July 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * It is at 90%

Tropical Storm Cindy
Straight to TS status; hello, Cindy! --HurricaneMaker99 20:56, July 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * What the... Really? This little bitch jumped the gun, I never saw this thing anywhere yesterday, and now we have Cindy? Ah well. It´ll just be an epic fail, like Colin of last year, and Bret will fail too as they both head out to sea, never exceeding TS strength. Ryan1000 21:56, July 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * This season is wild! When was the last time two storms were active at the same time in July? And also, if Cindy becomes a hurricane, this season will become a mirror image of 2005. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:28, July 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * I doubt it will ever become a hurricane. This system reminds me of Shary in 2010. 96.242.128.37 22:36, July 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Forgot to post something else. Last time in July when 2 storms were active I think was in 2008. 96.242.128.37 22:39, July 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * To me, Cindy and Bret are more like, say 1999´s Arlene, which was the farthest northeast an ATL storm formed in June. Neither will become hurricanes. The´re both huge fails, even though they gave us a rather early start. Ryan1000 23:23, July 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eh, Bret rattled a few nerves in the Bahamas, and he did get somewhat strong, so I wouldn't say he's a huge fail. Cindy will be absolutely pathetic, though. --HurricaneMaker99 00:17, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 kts with the latest advisory; already stronger than I was anticipating. --HurricaneMaker99 03:36, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * But seriously, what did Bret do? Bret actually made some pretty good waves for those adrenelin junkees out there. It wasn´t worth a damn, really. Cindy is just absolutely worthless, though, to be honest... Ryan1000 15:32, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not saying that Bret wasn't a fail; I'm just saying it wasn't an epic fail. Remember that the northern Bahamas got a TS warning out of it; if you ask me, any storm that warrants warnings doesn't really deserve the "epic fail" label. --HurricaneMaker99 15:50, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Winds still remaining near 60mph. Looks like a ragged eyewall in all of that
 * convection. Or I might be wrong, because its becoming extratropical. OWEN2011 16:21, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * This thing is starting to get a cold-core center, so yes, it is turning extratropical. Ryan1000 17:34, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I want to mention that right now, we ae in the quickest start in a AHS since 2008. And also, Cindy formed 24 days ahead of the traditional starting date. Anywho, yes, I think Cindy's weakining. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:59, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * convection. Or I might be wrong, because its becoming extratropical. OWEN2011 16:21, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * This thing is starting to get a cold-core center, so yes, it is turning extratropical. Ryan1000 17:34, July 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I want to mention that right now, we ae in the quickest start in a AHS since 2008. And also, Cindy formed 24 days ahead of the traditional starting date. Anywho, yes, I think Cindy's weakining. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:59, July 21, 2011 (UTC)

It´s starting to show an eyelike feature on sattelite imagery, but it´s over waters that are too cold to support hurricane strength, so it likely won´t go there. I guess it´ll just be an epic fail of a storm. Ryan1000 21:54, July 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'll have to oppose. From where it formed and from conditions it formed Cindy delivered quite a good show. --88.102.101.245 05:55, July 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * At least Bret managed to affect land. What did Cindy do? It was a weak TS that did nothing but spin fish. That´s a fail. And BTW, it´s now down to 50 and getting weaker as it is getting absorbed into a bigger storm. Ryan1000 16:57, July 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, I'm back, and this will officially be my last post. You know what annoys me more than coming back? When all of you don't call things right. By no means is Cindy and Bret a failure. Bret fought long and hard against the shear when it should have crumpled up like what DORAFAIL is doing right now! Stupid Dorafail weakened faster than it intensified. Cindy is not dying in basically colder temperatures that Dora is in now. All of you are so stuck up in your extreme bias for those EPAC storms. And if you really think of the word failure, Dora meets it. Bret actually fought. Cindy is staying alive. Cindy will stay alive for a bit longer. Now tell me, what is a failure now? Cindy formed and strengthened in waters extremely unfavorable for that. Now tell me, what's the failure now. Dora came from 135 kts to 75 kts in 24 hrs. That's 60 kts! Now tell me, what's the failure now!
 * Okay... Darren's ghost appeared. That was scary. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:30, July 22, 2011 (UTC)

Oh contraire! Cindy was an epic fail! Darren, are you saying Cindy was a win?? You´re nuts! An epic fail is a storm that does nothing but spin fish out to sea and not get past tropical storm strength. Cindy completly meets that criteria. So do Ingrid, Jerry, and Melissa of 2007. You don´t know anything about fails Darren. EPac hurricanes like Dora are supposed to rapidly weaken. But reaching 155 mph winds is no fail, not even for them. Heck, it´s the strongest storm of the season. Why would you consider Dora a fail? Celia of last year was supposed to weaken rapidly, but either way it became only the second June cat 5 in the EPac and first time a cat 5 formed there for two straight years. That´s not a fail at all. Bret is not a fail because it actually affected land and held on, but Cindy was a complete epic fail. It did nothing but spin fish and didn´t get past tropical storm strength. That´s an epic fail, period. Ryan1000 17:41, July 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Are you f****** nuts? CINDY WAS NOT AN EPIC FAIL YOU CLOSE MINDED EPAC LOVERS! DID I SAY CINDY WAS A WIN? OH HELL NO. THERE'S NOTHING SPECIAL ABOUT DORA! IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED... SURE, THAT'S BEEN DONE COUNTLESS TIMES. IT REACHED 135 KTS? SURE, THAT HAPPENS EVERY 2-4 YEARS! CHECK HURDAT IF YOU WANT! IT IS NOT SPECIAL, OTHER THAN IT WEAKENED 60 (OR 80 IF YOU ASK ME) KTS. INGRID WAS A MARGINAL TS. JERRY WAS A MARGINAL "TS". MELISSA WAS A MARGINAL TS. YOU FOOLS ARE THE ONE'S WHO DON'T KNOW ANYTHING. HELL, BY A LOT OF STANDARDS, RICKFAIL WAS AN EPIC, EPIC, EPIC FAIL. YOU DON'T LOOK PAST THE NUMBERS DO YOU IDIOTS? THINK ABOUT WHERE IT IS. THINK ABOUT THE CONDITIONS IT'S IN. THINK ABOUT WHAT IT HAS DONE! I'M REALLY SAD THAT NITWITS Y'ALL HAVE TAKEN OVER THIS PLACE. IT HAS DEGRADED SO MUCH SINCE IT'S BEGINNINGS
 * Close minded? RI is epic regardless on how many times it occurs. I expected Dora and Calvin to collapse. And darren, remember that Rick was ERC's while it was moving into hostile conditions. YOU REALLY NEED TO REALIZE THAT THE WORDS EPIC AND UNUSUAL ARE NOT THE SAME THING. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:06, July 22, 2011 (UTC)

I really don´t want to argue about this. To be honest, no one really cares about how fast a storm weakened. Rick was an EPIC win, whether you like it or not. It was the second strongest EPac storm ever and strongest October storm in EPac history. Rick was also one of only 3 EPAC cat 5 storms to make landfall somewhere at some intensity. I don´t give a shit about how fast Rick weakened. It doesn´t matter if a storm rapidly weakens. All storms rapidly weaken when they are exposed to a trainload of dry air or shear and cold waters. I will not argue anymore. I give up in explaining the stupid facts to you. Ingrid, Jerry, and Melissa of 2007 were epic fails, whether you like it or not. An epic fail is a storm that never exceeds TS intensity, never lasts for more than a day or two, and never affects land. Cindy of this year meets that criteria, and so do Ingrid, Jerry, and Melissa of 2007. Being a category 5 storm is never an epic fail except for WPac fish C5´s, because they get them all the time. A storm like Rick that weakens 60 kts in 9 hours ect isn´t an “epic fail“, because it was a C5 epic win. A storm cannot be an epic win and an epic fail at the same time. It must be one or the other, or just plain ol´ normal. Ryan1000 20:22, July 22, 2011 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cindy
The 11 pm advisory declares that Cindy is no longer tropical. Farewell. --HurricaneMaker99 02:58, July 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Aaaand our first epic fail of 2011 has died out. At least it gave me something to look at for a day or two. =) Ryan1000 15:07, July 23, 2011 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Hey howdy hey! We have a new invest! This thing´s at 10% for the next 2 days as it heads across the central atlantic, currently it´s halfway between the lessers and Africa. The problem with this one(future Don) is it could reach the Caribbean and the gulf coast possibly even as a major hurricane 7-9 days from now. This one needs to be watched carefully. I´m on the lookout for this one. Ryan1000 18:45, July 21, 2011 (UTC)

Man, this season is reminding me of 2005 and 2008 because of the early season activity. And this could be our first real major hurricane strike since Hurricane Wilma about 5.75 years ago. Heh, ironically, Don is the replacement name for Dennis, a major hurricane which hit the U.S. in the same area I predict this invest will reach in a few days. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 19:07, July 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Don looks like an Emily or an Allen more than a Dennis as of now. The conditions for development in 2005 are not the same as they are now in 2011. This invest is much farther north than where Dennis was in 2005, and it is heading west-northwest not due west, so it could actually be heading into the northern lesser antillies or greater antillies more than be a southernly storm like Dennis/Ivan were. Ryan1000 19:37, July 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * For me it seems to be on track to brush the northernmost Lesser Antilles and maybe Puerto Rico and Hispaniola before taking an Andrew or Katrina like path. --88.102.101.245 06:15, July 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * We will see what 90L brings. I might be our first hurricane or even major hurricane. It might not develop
 * and just bring moisture to the U.S.. If this system develops, we might be in trouble. OWEN2011 15:58, July 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * and just bring moisture to the U.S.. If this system develops, we might be in trouble. OWEN2011 15:58, July 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * If it heads further south than where it´s otherwise forecast to, then this storm could be a problem for the Caribbean and gulf coast more than the east coast. But we´ll see. As of now, it´s up to 20% for the next 2 days and it´s not quite as far north as I thought it would be. That isn´t saying it is guranteed to go further south, but we´ll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 16:57, July 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * A Katrina/Andrew/Camille/Dennis/Opal path might happen, but now, 90L could pull a Emily/Allen/Gilbert path.
 * Either way, it will be very devestating, and costly/deadly. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:14, July 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * We don´t quite know that it will be devastating yet, Andrew. As I mentioned many times earlier, July isn´t quite the month when we see catastrophic hurricanes. It is not impossible we could see a dangerous storm out of 90L, but it´s not very likely, and it is not quite the peak of the season yet either. However, August is rapidly approaching, and by the time August comes, it´s time to turn up the heat. That´s when any wave crossing Africa has the potential to become a monster. We have only a week more until the heart of HS is approaching(or has approached). Ryan1000 17:48, July 22, 2011 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now it´s officially there. And this invest is really starting to scare me now... Here is what the NHC says:

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

Well, that tells it all. Our first big storm of 2011 is coming... perhaps now. Stay tuned. This one is definitely worth watching. Ryan1000 01:55, July 23, 2011 (UTC)

Attention Cuba, Northern Mexico, Haiti, and Texas, please monitor 90L very closely. It could be a very devestating hurricane. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 02:00, July 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * The Caribbean sea is favorable... too favorable... for this storm. This thing has a good potential to be a monstorous storm as it moves across the Caribbean, but the thing is it´s moving at 15-20 mph. Therefore it really needs to get on with it for it to be a bad storm for the islands. If it goes for three or so more days without developing, it will likely hit Central America and the EPac will get this wave. However, i´d be surprised if this thing doesn´t get to, say 60% or higher later today. It´s really starting to get it´s act together. Ryan1000 02:15, July 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * NHC site now says 20%. 96.242.128.37 11:59, July 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Either 90L is succumbing to some shear or it´s interaction with the lesser antillies weakened it a bit. It will gradually be traveling into more favorable shear over the next few days(except tomorrow), so this storm still bears watching, especially if it reaches the western Caribbean. Don´t let your guard down just yet. Ryan1000 13:19, July 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * NHC says that the shear is getting to it, and so will Hispaniola soon. Down to 10%. --HurricaneMaker99 17:38, July 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * At the rate 90L is interacting with land and shear, it will likely either die over land, or move into the EPac and become Eugene there. It´s not really getting it´s act together so much, which may hinder us from seeing Don. It´s still worth watching, but 90L is not as threatening as it looked yesterday. Stay tuned though. It´s not over yet. Ryan1000 17:49, July 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * To see my blog post on this system see "Caribbean disturbance worth watching". OWEN2011
 * 
 * Yes, this could be a very violent hurricane, so anyone watching this should keep watching this. NOTE: Owen, I linked your blog with this forum (is it okay with you?). Also, I have a very fun blog post (but has nothing to do with this) which you can see here. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:15, July 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 
 * Yes, this could be a very violent hurricane, so anyone watching this should keep watching this. NOTE: Owen, I linked your blog with this forum (is it okay with you?). Also, I have a very fun blog post (but has nothing to do with this) which you can see here. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:15, July 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, this could be a very violent hurricane, so anyone watching this should keep watching this. NOTE: Owen, I linked your blog with this forum (is it okay with you?). Also, I have a very fun blog post (but has nothing to do with this) which you can see here. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:15, July 23, 2011 (UTC)

It´s put on a really big burst of convection rescently. The question is, since it´s undeveloped now, will it head further north into Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, or further west across the Caribbean? We´ll have to wait and see, since as of now, there´s no telling what 90L will do. Ryan1000 23:32, July 23, 2011 (UTC)

Thanks Andrew. Where did you put link for my blog on this forum? OWEN2011 14:06, July 24, 2011 (UTC)

Everybody read my first blog. I want to get more comments please. OWEN2011 14:11, July 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * The NHC has kept 90L at 10% for the next 2 days, but the problem is 90L has really been knocked down due to interaction with Hispaniola. Now what will become of it? Will it track further westward and end up in the GOM? Or will it head northward and end up in the eastern seaboard? 90L has lots of options avaliable to it as of now, but the problem is we don´t really know what it will do. The best case scenario is it dissipates over land and never affects us, but it´s better to expect the worst than expect the least. Ryan1000 15:03, July 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * RE: The blog was linked where you mentioned it. Anywho, It's a re-Katrina to me. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:16, July 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * This thing is reminding me of Celia in a way, or perhaps Anita, but not at all a Katrina. We´ll have to wait and see. No active storms as of now. Ryan1000 02:32, July 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Just wanted to point out that the NAM forecasts the tropical wave on becoming a tropical cyclone west of Cuba and becoming a very well defined hurricane afterword. None of the other models show it developing at the moment, but if it does it will make landfall around Louisana on July 30/31. Take a look for yourselfs: 99.19.116.121 06:28, July 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * May we indent please? Anyhow, I don´t know if it will organize into a powerful hurricane in the gulf nor do I think it will as of now, and it should be noted the NHC now says: THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Maybe 90L won´t become so much after all... Ryan1000 14:14, July 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hi guys, I'm back for a few days. (You guys seem to have forgotten that the NHC de-invested this invest 2 days ago) Yqt1001 16:59, July 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yqt, it´s not completely off NHC yet. As long as the circle remains on NHC it needs to be watched out for. There may be a near 0% chance of us seeing it, but anything could happen. Let´s wait and see. I personally think this storm will not be on the NHC TWO this evening, but we can´t really say for sure. Ryan1000 17:43, July 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, this storm just put on a really huge burst of convection, but the NHC has left it at near 0%. Looks like this storm has pretty much lost its chance to develop. Yqt1001 23:52, July 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90L has been reactivated. Yqt1001 00:22, July 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * I´d be surprised if it continues for much longer today; it´s really falling apart. Ryan1000 01:03, July 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's holding up pretty well during DMIN. Up to 10% now. Yqt1001 05:35, July 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hmmm... It appears it´s stalling in the Caribbean, so it has a better chance of development now. Up to 20%, but it has to get it´s act together to become Don as it slowly moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Ryan1000 13:39, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 90L is looking a lot better today, and I think this has a chance at Don again. Yqt1001 17:39, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Geesh the models are liking this storm now. 12z HWRF Category 3 US landfall! Yqt1001 17:58, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * All the models take this into Texas now. Yqt1001 19:33, July 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * Oh dear...things are not looking good. Now we could have the first hurricane landfall since 2008 here. In some ways, 90L is a pre-Celia or pre-Bret (1999). It's worth watching again. We'll see what 90L will do. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:47, July 26, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 40% now. I think recon will find a TD/TS tomorrow. Yqt1001 23:42, July 26, 2011 (UTC)

Maybe so. It could be a tropical cyclone in the next three days. Texas and Mexico should get prepared. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:21, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * This thing is starting to remind me more and more of Celia of 1970. Celia still remains the most rescent major hurricane to directly hit Corpus Christi, but I have a feeling Don may end that 41-year streak. The thing about Bret(of 1999) is it hit a very unpopulated part of Texas and was small enough to miss Brownsville to it´s south and Corpus Christi to it´s north. It caused very little damage(15 million, mostly agricultural) and wasn´t retired. Celia was retired, however, and this is about the same time of year 41 years ago when Celia developed. It also has similar conditions ahead of it and a similar forecast track. This thing isn´t looking so good... Ryan1000 04:11, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm thinking more of a Dolly situation, but a Celia one is not out of the question (especially since one model predicts it). Right now I think it depends on if it forms in the Caribbean, if it doesn't I don't think it has a chance in the gulf. I'm expecting the NHC to either upgrade it to a TD once it survives DMIN or recon gets in there and finds a closed circulation (which I think it is nearing/will get once it gets to DMAX). Dolly or Celia, both are bad cases. The drought busting would be nice though I guess. Man, July and we might see our first major hurricane landfall of the year. Yqt1001 05:06, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * The coast of Texas near Corpus Christi and Brownsville get a tropical storm or hurricane about once per 10-15 years. Celia was by far the most severe hurricane in Corpus Christi´s history(her best track is here). As for Brownsville, they were hit pretty hard by Allen of 1980(which very fortunately weakened from it´s powerful category 5 peak just hours before landfall), in addition to Beulah of 1967, which weakened to a category 3 by the time it hit Texas(not a 5 landfall), but the most severe hurricane in Brownsville´s history? That came in the form of a 150 mph monster category 4 more than 100 years ago. That storm, in my book called the 1880 Brownsville Hurricane, was the most severe hurricane in the city´s history. The good news is Brownsville wasn´t quite as populated by then. If a similar hurricane struck today though, it would be catastrophic. The thing is there is no major port town or city between Brownsville and Corpus Christi. The area between Brownsville and Corpus Christi is the area of Kennedy County, Texas, which is the least populated county along the entire U.S. gulf and east coast. Other very unpopulated areas include Cedar Key, Florida, in the tucked back big bend region of that state, and a few areas of Maine, along with the area between Savannah and Jacksonville known as the Okefenokee Swamp. The best case scenario is Don pulls a Bret and misses all of the major population centers on the Texas coastline. Let´s cross our fingers. Ryan1000 05:40, July 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE... A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. "Code red" everyone! It's funny Ryan, all the unpopulated area's you've mentioned, I've been through (Corpus too Brownsville during one of our trips south for the winter, Savannah to Jacksonville last summer and the coast of Maine this summer). But yeah, this storm has the possibility to become a huge and horrible hurricane. Right now all the models are leaning to somewhere on the Texas coast atm. Yqt1001 05:50, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * GAH!!! I was just about to say that! >:( Anyways, let´s hope for the best here. Again, a landfall right between Brownsville and Corpus Christi would be the best case scenario. Let´s cross our fingers that´ll happen, because Don could be a pretty nasty storm if it directly hits either city. Ryan1000 05:58, July 27, 2011 (UTC
 * (I cross my fingers) Alright, lets hope future-Don is no devestating storm. If it really becomes a repeat of Celia, it'll most certianly be retired. If it's lucky to hit a unpopulated area, that is what we should hope for. A repeat of the 1880 cyclone, would not be good at all. So in general, make sure you're prepared (Texas). Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 11:28, July 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%, I think recon will find a TD. But man, this storm is tinyyyy! If it has favourable conditions over the gulf, this could explode into a tiny, but strong category 3-4. Yqt1001 12:44, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Damn it Yqt! You beat me again. Bret was also a tiny cat 4 storm, but luckily it hit the area between Brownsville and corpus Christi, so the strongest winds missed both cities. Let´s hope Don will do so as well. Ryan1000 12:48, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Sorry Ryan..anyways the models are all over with this storm, one has it intensifying to a category 1 storm over the northern Mexican mountains! What type of model doesn't realize there is land/mountains!? I still think the models are underexagerating (especially since not many of them even notice 90L), so I'm still sticking with a Dolly type situation. The center of all the models is still Corpus Christi... Yqt1001 13:13, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * A hurricane hunter aircraft will fly into this storm later today to see what is going on with this storm, if it develops a closed low-level circulation or stays a strong invest. I have a feeling we will see Don later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 14:49, July 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * HH's are 2+ hours late! Looks like we will have to wait until 5 or the 8 PM EST update to see what they found. (though a "source" has said that the NHC is considering upgrading without recon data) Also 90L looks like it is consolidating, it's even smaller now! It fits in the lake I live on. :) Yqt1001 17:15, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's true, a tropical depression could form at any time. And also, if tropical stom winds extend only 10 miles from the center, this would be the smallest tropical cyclone on record, beating Tropical Marco of 2008. Either way, this will be a very bad storm, maybe Celia or Allen 2.0? Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:29, July 27, 2011 (UTC)

Near 100% now! Looks like the NHC is expecting to find a TD when the HHs arrive. Recon departed not too long ago, so there might be a special 5PM update stating that 90L has formed into TD4. Yqt1001 17:51, July 27, 2011 (UTC)

Just a little more... then it's Tropical Depression Four. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 18:03, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * The invest is already at 35 mph according to Wunderground, so I wouldn't be surprised if this thing skips TD status and goes straight to Don. --HurricaneMaker99 18:53, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Is ”near 100%” really necessary NHC? Come on, it´s TD 4 and you know it. And Andrew, Marco never
 * got bigger than 10 miles in size in it´s entire life. I´m pretty sure Don will expand a bit when it goes into the gulf, so it will be bigger than Marco. I´m pretty sure we´ll see him this evening, and perhaps even a hurricane by tomorrow. Corpus Christi and Brownsville are the main two population centers in the gunsights of this to be powerful hurricane, but of course, we want it to end up between the two cities and do as little damage as possible. Ryan1000 19:41, July 27, 2011 (UTC)

HH found a closed circulation, 1004mb pressure and 30mph winds (down a bit, I think only because of the fact it has curled up into a tiny little ball and lost most of its size). NHC hasn't confirmed it yet, but they probably will on the 5PM update in 1 hour. Yqt1001 19:37, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * What i´m really worried about is, where will this thing head? I´m worried about a landfall in Corpus Christi or Brownsville, but what is the official NHC forecast track? I want to know that before anything else, even before it becomes Don. Ryan1000 19:48, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * We will see what the forecast is when it becomes official. Also, the HH found TS winds so TD4 may never become official and we might skip to Don after all. Yqt1001 19:50, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Argh. I´m starting to get nervous as to when the NHC will update their website for confirmation on this... Ryan1000 20:33, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * There we go. Don´s now here, completely skipped TD 4. Texas, keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 20:56, July 27, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Don
It's here! 40mph winds, 1001mb pressure. Currently no warnings, but NHC is advising of ones for Texas today/tomorrow. NHC forecasts a maximum intensity of 65mph right now. This also makes Don one of the 3 storms that have skipped TD status this year (out of 4). It's really interesting to note how very few models caught this storm. The models aren't too good this year for catching storms. Also model update, all the models are getting pretty tight together when it comes to track. They seem locked down to the area between Corpus and Galveston. Yqt1001 20:54, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * GAH!!! Let me beat you ONCE Yqt! Anywho, the images for it´s forecast are actually a bit promising, I hope. The NHC takes Don onto the coast near Corpus Christi, but not even as a hurricane. If that holds true, perhaps it won´t be so bad after all. Ryan1000 20:59, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Sorry Ryan, I'll let you have your chance later. :P Anyways, these gulf storms aren't the best to predict, Dolly didn't have an H on it's forecast until the day after it formed, same with Alex. This storm is so much smaller than both of them anyways, it should be easier for it to become a hurricane. Not like I'm hoping for it to happen though (don't think about it like that). Yqt1001 21:08, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * We never really know what may happen with it, but, given it´s small size, i´m not going to be surprised if it becomes a re-Celia. Celia of 1970 was strange in the fact it exploded from a 1 to a 3 on the day of it´s landfall when it wasn´t even in favorable conditions for rapid intensification. It was a small major hurricane though, so it wasn´t so surprising it took advantage of the low shear and time it was given in that low shear, like Julia of last year. If Don develops a pinhole eye, it could catch the residents there off guard by exploding a lot just before it makes landfall. That won´t be good, but it´s really starting to remind me of Celia. Celia formed in a very similar location to Don at this same time of year, and it wouldn´t have been as bad for Corpus Christi had it not underwent that freak rapid jump from a TS to a cat 3 on just one advisory... Same could be with Don. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:16, July 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The conditions have deadly all over it. Lessening shear, moist air past the "dry spot" in the middle of the gulf and it's an incredibly small storm. I could totally see a Celia come from this or atleast a Dolly. I don't buy that it will peak as a 65mph TS. Sounds like the north-east gulf is primed for RI conditions. Yqt1001 22:20, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * The majority of the shear in the gulf is on the northern end of the gulf following the tail end of a cold front, but Don is far enough away and small enough that it has at least one day to rapidly intensify until the shear may gain a hold of it a bit. But given the tiny size of the circulation and the fact the circulation is right beneath that tiny pocket of thunderstorms, I wouldn´t be surprised if it takes off tonight for god´s sake. It only has two days until it will make its landing in Texas and it could be a 115 mph or stronger hurricane when it does hit. Stay tuned everyone. This could get real ugly real fast. Ryan1000 22:27, July 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * If it's really small, it has the chance to intensify rapidly. A re-Celia or re-Bret is possible, since don't believe the current NHC forecast. And Yqt, Arlene and Cindy actually were TD's for six hours before being named. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:53, July 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Don is growing in size quite a bit, and the models are shifting north. This storm is intensifying pretty quickly, Dvorak estimates put it at 50mph right now. By the times the models get to ingest the new data, Don could already be a massive storm heading for Houston. Andrew, no they weren't. Don, Cindy and Arlene all skipped TD status. Yqt1001 00:47, July 28, 2011 (UTC)

Bah, Don's convection went over the Yucatan...because of that and DMIN he didn't change in strength, however tomorrow when he is in the open waters of the Gulf and it's DMAX, I feel that could quickly change. Well, if dry air isn't much of a problem. Tropical storm watch issued for a large portion of the Texas coast. Yqt1001 02:34, July 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * It´s not that dry air is a problem... it´s just that Don isn´t quite as organized as I thought he was. The latest NHC forecast takes him right into Corpus Christi as a TS, but Don needs to get his act together now for him to cause a lot of problems for Texas. If he stays disorganized, then he won´t be such a bad storm for Texas after all. Ryan1000 12:43, July 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * HHs found 45mph winds now. If convective activity spreads to the north of the center (convection is being sheared south atm), I give it a high chance of becoming a hurricane. However right now that doesn't seem too likely. Yqt1001 14:47, July 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * The shear has really settled down now, and there's no dry air ahead of Don either. It's really starting to get it's act together now, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it becomes a hurricane by tomorrow. Furthermore, given the small size of this thing, it might still have a chance to explode into a minimal major hurricane(115-120 mph) before it makes landfall. Corpus Christi, do not let your guard down just yet. A Celia repeat is still not out of the question. Ryan1000 16:36, July 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan, it looks like Don is caving in on itself and on the path to dissipation (LLC is being pulled out from under it)..might have peaked at 45mph. Well no actually, the NHC "corrected" the 11AM EST update to 40mph. But it's a small storm..so we'll see. The great Texas drought seems to be killing Don, which means no rain for them I guess. If this storm does dissipate before making landfall, Don has to be called the first official epic fail of the year. Yqt1001 17:43, July 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * I highly doubt it will dissipate before it's landfall, but it will likely only hit as a tropical storm, not a severe major hurricane, at the rate it's going. Texas has been scorched every year since 1995 by drought, except for 2007; in that year most of Texas got washed away by severe flash floods. Erin of that year only made it worse in August of that year, and Humberto caused some additional flooding when it struck in September, one year before Ike. It looks like it will be the first U.S. landfall of the season, but no epic fail will come from that. It will be more benificial for them than a failure for us. Ryan1000 19:05, July 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, Corpus Christi might have to cope with this storm. The forecast track takes Don right over that city, then over Mexico. Either way, this storm is the U.S.'s first landfall since Bonnie last July. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:57, July 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hate Don. We flares up, fails, flares up, fails and then flares up fails one more time and he is now flaring up and man, he looks good now. NHC has him at 45mph, but I think HHs will find a 50-60mph storm. Yqt1001 00:01, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's having a pretty tough time in the Gulf. Apparently the wind shear isn't in favor of him developing for tomorrow and Saturday. Poor Don. At least you'll bring some beneficial rain to those drought-stricken guys in Texas. =) Ryan1000 00:13, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well the new flare up is going down again, but this time Don has way nicer conditions to sustain at his peak (good anti-cyclone, low shear, not so deadly dry air), so the NHC put Don at 50mph and nearly at his pressure peak of 995mb (NHC put it at 998mb). Don was close to qualifying for RI if it was continued, a 9mb pressure drop in ~2 hours isn't too common. Yqt1001 02:38, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's getting close to land though, so it likely won't have much time. I'm forecasting it to stay below hurricane strength when it hits. The conditions just aren't in favor of a celia repeat I guess... Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm not expecting more than beneficial rains and 55mph winds. Yqt1001 14:33, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just about to make landfall, and not only is it not a major hurricane, it's hitting between Corpus and Brownsville, which will minimize damage from Don. Ryan1000 20:02, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * What an Epic Fail!!!! worse than Bonnie.
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * What an Epic Fail!!!! worse than Bonnie.
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially made landfall, first since Bonnie. And down to a TD. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 03:14, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Don

 * Don actually could cause more damage than Bonnie, and Bonnie was nothing more than a rainy afternoon for Miami, wheras Don could actually be helpful for Texas. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don actually could cause more damage than Bonnie, and Bonnie was nothing more than a rainy afternoon for Miami, wheras Don could actually be helpful for Texas. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don actually could cause more damage than Bonnie, and Bonnie was nothing more than a rainy afternoon for Miami, wheras Don could actually be helpful for Texas. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don actually could cause more damage than Bonnie, and Bonnie was nothing more than a rainy afternoon for Miami, wheras Don could actually be helpful for Texas. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don actually could cause more damage than Bonnie, and Bonnie was nothing more than a rainy afternoon for Miami, wheras Don could actually be helpful for Texas. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don actually could cause more damage than Bonnie, and Bonnie was nothing more than a rainy afternoon for Miami, wheras Don could actually be helpful for Texas. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don actually could cause more damage than Bonnie, and Bonnie was nothing more than a rainy afternoon for Miami, wheras Don could actually be helpful for Texas. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

The final advisory has been issued. But before we archive this, what Forecaster Blake said in the last discussion can be viewed here:

THE DON IS DEAD. THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT AS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED. DON HAS NO CONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE A RAINFALL THREAT.

I laughed my head off seeing this. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 12:49, July 30, 2011 (UTC)



Tropical Depression Don
Now it's down to a TD. Just made landfall in Texas, but it will likely bring some beneficial rains to the drought-stricken state. Ryan1000 03:16, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * I don't think the rains from Don are going to be beneficial at this point because the storm is falling apart rapidly right now. Suprise11 03:44, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * + it made landfall in the area of the state that needs the rain the least. Yqt1001 03:46, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, let's hope his remnants head further northward to help other parts of Texas, and if it brings rainfall, it likely won't bring a trainload of it(Allison). However, it certainly could help some parts of Texas I hope... Ryan1000 05:41, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
It's not off of the coast yet, but for a wave coming off of Africa, I'd say it has the highest chance of forming so far this year. It has some model support and a low pressure area so far. Conditions also look favourable off the coast. Yqt1001 23:52, July 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not quite. The SAL is still really thick off of Africa´s coast; I would consider this invest developing perhaps when it reaches the lesser antillies, but a Bertha-like storm isn´t in my future for this invest. It cetainly bears watching though, and as the heart of hurricane season continues to approach, more African waves will become threatening storms for the Caribbean Islands, Central America, the U.S, Mexico, Bermuda and Canada. Every invest out there bears watching as of now. August is just around the corner, and by August, not only will more and more people come here, but more and more storms will come off of Africa. Ryan1000 01:03, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The tropics are heating up like it's already August. Maybe a re-2004 could happen at this rate? Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:49, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * August isn't too far away now, but I can see a year like 2008. Anyways this wave isn't expected to develop until it reaches the Caribbean, but I think it's odds of forming are still high in the future. It kinda fell apart once it departed Africa though and met the SAL. Yqt1001 23:47, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess the more imminent threat now is 90L, because it looks a lot like Celia did in 1970. This wave could be future Emily though, and it needs to be watched out for, especially when it gets to the Caribbean. Ryan1000 04:33, July 27, 2011 (UTC)

Now up to 20% for the next 2 days. The thing about this one is unlike Don's precursor, this one will have to fight an upper level low dominating the Virgin Islands. It needs to develop now to have a better chance at that shear in the eastern to northern Caribbean 3 or 4 days from now. However, the shear may settle down before it gets there(which I desperately don't want), so Emily could be threatening us much more than Don will. I may even see her as a major threatening the gulf coast 7 days from now. This thing could get bad. Ryan1000 00:13, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * OMG! There is a closed circulation already! All it needs is higher winds and deeper convection and we have TS Emily! Yqt1001 02:48, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested! The model support for this is amazing with nearly every model developing a hurricane out of this. Also up to 30% now. Yqt1001 04:20, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * This wave really scares me, because it has a lot of time to develop and when it does get into the Caribbean, we could see a very powerful hurricane heading for the U.S. gulf coast and Cuba. The AOI north of Panama has less time to develop than this wave, but because it's closer to land, it certainly has to be watched more for the time being. I don't know if this will be Emily or Franklin, but either way, I hope it doesn't develop into a monstorous U.S. storm in the far future. Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * You might or might not be surprised at how many models develop this into a major hurricane. (nearly all) However the models are still doubting on where it will go... Yqt1001 14:36, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * It could end up crossing the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and then end up in the eastern seaboard of the U.S. as a powerful hurricane, but it also isn't out of the question it could rage across the Caribbean and hit the Gulf coast as a powerful major hurricane, but who knows where it could end up... It could be a re-Dennis or re-Emily, or(god forbid) a re-Ivan or Gilbert. Ryan1000 15:26, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 50% now. Yqt1001 23:41, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

Wow... this invest is geting its act together quite fast. And just how it's looking, the fifth tropical depression could be on our way. And very ironically, it appears that Emily is trying to redo her 2005 fame. (But in an EXTREME coincidence, I had predicted the 2011 Emily to take the same track as the 2005 Emily in the strangest storm section in the betting pools. Looks like I could be the first person to win that section! :)) Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:16, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

I now have posted another blog post. OWEN2011 00:27, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, we don't know if it will become a monster yet, but it isn't out of the question. And Andrew, HSpin won the strangest storm section for Omeka in the pacific hurricane season betting pools last year, so you would be the second, not the first. Sorry. =( Anyhow, this wave is certainly worth watching as it very well could be a re-Emily, but many other options are open to 91L as well, so don't count on a re-Emily just yet. Ryan1000 02:29, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to 70% now. Yqt1001 05:49, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * The big difference between this one and Don is Emily has so much more time to develop. It will likely become named, or at least numbered, before it even reaches the lesser antillies. So this storm could be quite severe for the Caribbean and U.S. The people in the leewards need to prepare NOW. I could easily see Emily at the most a cat 2 when it approaches the islands this Sunday/Monday. Ryan1000 06:06, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * This may be our first"big" storm of the season. If you want to see my blog written about it click on OWEN2011 and go to my blogs. 13:47, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * This may be our first"big" storm of the season. If you want to see my blog written about it click on OWEN2011 and go to my blogs. 13:47, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Panama
Some model support, it's in a basin of hot water and little shear in the peak of the hurricane season. Every wave should be noted at this point. :P Yqt1001 05:49, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * This thing is really close to land, so it has to get it's act together now until it comes closer to CA and doesn't affect land, or if it misses Central America to the east, it may interact with Cuba and Florida instead, hopefully not being as strong as 91L could be. Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to near 0% chance now. Yqt1001 23:42, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Will this really become a tropical cyclone, or even an invest? Let's wait and see. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:18, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * No offense, but this AOI is a sad excuse for sh!t. I would be stunned if it's upped to medium chance by tomorrow or later today. It's moving into EPac however, so it could be future Greg if the two current invests develop there. However, there's no Franklin coming from this one. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * No offense, but this AOI is a sad excuse for sh!t. I would be stunned if it's upped to medium chance by tomorrow or later today. It's moving into EPac however, so it could be future Greg if the two current invests develop there. However, there's no Franklin coming from this one. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)