Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (July 5)
New wave off Africa. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:01, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * In the EPAC. Could be a re-90E. It may have a slight chance. YE Pacific Hurricane  19:40, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:06, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now 0/30. It could be Ana once it moves into the Central Pacific.--  Steve  820  ✉   18:03, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS and CFS have been off and on about this becoming something. I could it could become Ana. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:11, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/30. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:55, July 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/50, probably getting invested soon. 124.192.129.90 11:48, July 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict we'll see Hernan out of this.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:53, July 23, 2014 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Per Wunderground, this AOI has been invested 92E. It is currently a surface trough of low pressure, and development might be possible in the next few days as it moves into the CPAC region. However, proximity to Invest 91E might hinder some initial development. Nevertheless, Invest 92E's chances of development are now at 30% for the next two days and 50% for the next five days. Assuming both 91E and 92E develop, we would have nine named storms before the end of July, which would be the first time since 1992 that happened, I think (11 storms formed before August 1 that year). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:03, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * W of 140W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:37, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it becomes Ana, the CPac is starting to get active like it did back in August 2013!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:08, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 92E is very asymmetrical in structure, but I still root for its development. Chances of formation remain at 30% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:58, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * I actually want Ana to wait until next year, so that we can get two storms with the same name in different basins in the same year (Ana is first up on the Atlantic list next year). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:23, July 25, 2014 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
Invest 92E has been renumbered 91C by the CPHC. Development is still possible from this system as it produces rather scattered showers. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:23, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30%. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:46, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Due to a sharp decrease in thunderstorm activity and the decreasingly favorable environmental conditions around it, the CPHC have downgraded Invest 91C's chances of formation to 10%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:30, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really don't think it'll develop anymore. And like Dylan, I hope the name "Ana" is saved for 2015 so we can have the same name used for two different storms in the same year and in different basins! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:27, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has become more conductive in regards to Invest 91C, and we could see more development in the next few days as it moves more westwards. Chances of formation are back at 30% for the next 24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:12, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * I still hope the name "Ana" waits until 2015 so we can witness the awesome occurrence that a storm named Ana will exist in two different basins in the same year! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:54, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Environmental conditions are favorable for further development of Invest 91C, and it now has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:31, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 91C has a couple more days to get its act together. Chances of formation are down to 20% for the next 48 hours per the CPHC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:21, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 91C has improved its convection, and we could see additional development over the next few days. Chances are back up to 30% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:46, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Geez, this thing's been doing nothing but hanging around near the CPac just trying to develop. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:05, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 91C's hanging on! Even though its rather disorganized and elongated, environmental conditions may allow for some development. Chances have nevertheless fallen to 10% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:11, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

(←)91C has still a couple days more to develop rather slightly as it moves westwards. Chances of formation are now at 20% again for the next 48 hours per the CPHC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:35, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are located to the east and southeast of 91C's center, and slight development may occur as it moves generally westwards. Chances of formation are down to 10% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:08, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really don't think we'll see any TC out of this little invest. And it looks like you've been talking to yourself a lot in this section :P (Nobody must be interested in this invest I guess) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:50, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Conditions are getting less conductive for this disorganized invest. Chances of formation are down to near 0% for the next 48 hours per the CPHC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:22, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * The CPHC must be getting very frustrated about 91C! Although conditions are not favorable for development, chances of formation for the next 48 hours are back at 10%! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:05, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * The fight is done. 91C is finally off the TWO! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:23, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (July 9)
New wave off Africa, also mentioned in the Atl section. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  17:09, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * The AOI is on the TWO, located 700 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. However, development should be slow to occur over the next several days as it moves generally westwards at 10 mph. The NHC gives a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and 20% in the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:30, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't know if it'll develop or not. Might be Genevieve in the long run though but let's hope it doesn't fail! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:39, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * It'll be another disgrace to TC's. Mark my word. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:50, July 20, 2014 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
We have an investment. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:42, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * And it's getting better organized. Chances of formation have risen to 20% for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:56, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * This might be our third hurricane of the season, it better not fail. Two of our best names Elida and Fausto have fail with capital F. Hernan is another name that is really strong, I am waiting this to become hurricane Genevieve hope it does not dissappoint.Allanjeffs 20:11, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't think this will become a hurricane. Shear kicks in about 36-58 hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:16, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's down to 10% (20%). Maybe it won't develop, which is awesome since it won't be another name stealer!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:25, July 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity is very disorganized in Invest 91E, and any development will be very slow due to its large size. Chances of formation for the next five days have fallen to 10%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity in the invest has consolidated a little bit, but any more development should remain rather slow as it continues westwards. However, the NHC has upped the probability for development to 20% for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:16, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/40. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:04, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think it'll become Genevieve in a few days. I hope it won't be another disgrace to TCs. Future Genevieve, please be a hurricane!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:52, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * And as soon as I type that up, it's been upgraded to 40% (60%)! Please be a hurricane and not a weakling fail TS! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:00, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * It may have a chance, though models are not very aggressive, it is in a rather good environment for the next 5 days. I'd bet on another weak TS to be honest. Should form, but I'm more excited about the one behind it. 20:15, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think this will intensify somewhat. I would not count a hurricane, but it kinda reminds me of Henriette 13 for some reason. Now 60/80 BTW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:57, July 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope it becomes a cat 2 at least. Genevieve deserves to be used good but with a lot of invest developing close of each other might be bad for development. Allanjeffs 11:13, July 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * They shouldn't be that close and 91E will likely be the dominate one. Now 70/80, BTW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:43, July 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * This should become a depression later today and a named storm by tonight. Hopefully it becomes a hurricane!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:51, July 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * I expect this to become a minimal to moderate hurricane at most, as it heads west-northwest towards Hawaii. Like (almost) all other storms in the past, it'll probably die before it reaches the islands and it's remnants could bring some winds or rain to the big island in about a week. Best case scenario, it remains well to the south of the islands and becomes stronger than currently anticipated by the GFS and Euro. Ryan1000 22:35, July 23, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Oh my goodness, a tropical depression is near! Shower activity has increased in Invest 91E has become better organized, located 1400 mi SW of Cabo San Lucas, and with the environment conductive for additional development, there is no doubt a tropical cyclone is bound to form as it moves generally westwards at 10 to 15 mph. Chances of formation for the next two days are now at 80% and 90% for the next five! Also, the JTWC have issued a TCFA in anticipation for this invest's development. They cite animated EIS imagery as revealing deepening central convection surrounding the previously exposed LLCC, with formative banding building in the southern quadrant. As a matter of fact, a recent 0346Z SSMIS microwave image shows increased convection consolidation in all quadrants. Finally, the JTWC states there are SST's of 28 to 29 degrees Celsius and low to moderate vertical wind shear of 10 to 15 knots. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). Proximity to Invest 92E might hinder some development, but hopefully not too much. Please become our third hurricane, Invest 91E! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:51, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * How is this not a TD? I don't think it'll be that strong, shear will kick in 48-72 hours. But I get this feel it'll wind up being re-Henriette 13 for some reason. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:44, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Down to 80/80. Dud? - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:44, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope it doesn't be a dud. I want it to be Genevieve (assuming it doesn't fail), and like YE, I got a feeling it might pull a Henriette 2013.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:06, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Uh oh, Invest 91E is beginning to lose its organization, and upper-level winds will kick in by this weekend. I hate to say it, but if we do get a tropical cyclone, it might be Fausto or Wali all over again. Chances of formation have fallen to 70% for both the next two and five days. No... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:05, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * It may be a ts as upper levels winds are expect to be unfavorable by the weekend. If this becomes Genevieve expect a ts at most.Allanjeffs 18:25, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, NHC still mentions that environmental conditions are conductive but upper-level winds will strike by the weekend. Satellite data also indicates TS-force winds north of the center. Maybe it might be Genevieve? But if it does develop it'll probably only be a TS and I'm getting sick of those.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:18, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * I think it is classifiable, and will form soon, but it'll be another weak TS probs if not a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:47, July 25, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Genevieve
Well, She is here but forecast to be another fail. I am tired of all this thrash that the Epac is developing. Hernan or Iselle might be hurricanes but with all things failing I am not even certain anymore. I am sad that this name would underperform.Allanjeffs 11:24, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Genny looks like some irrelevant trash storm that no one cares about. The second (12z) ATCF is long out and this wiki has yet to be this dead when a storm gets named. Looks like about right, Genevieve will degenerate in around a day or two. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:11, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Advisory 2, 40 kts and NHC is calling this Genevieve's peak intensity. Knock it off, EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:20, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, knock it off, EPac! You're literally abandoning and throwing all these fine and innocent names into the trash bin! Anyways, I have a feeling that it might quickly intensify to a strong TS before upper-level winds eat it all up. If it doesn't, here comes  yet  another fail. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:51, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds are already beginning to affect Genevieve, and with shear closing in on the storm, its intensity of 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h)/1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) should be it. With the STR forecast to rebuild to its west, the storm should continue moving westwards for the remainder of its lifetime. Genny, you are such a fail! Instead of becoming something like Amanda or Cristina, you chose to follow Fausto and Wali! >:( Also, for trivia, just like Boris, Elida and Fausto, assuming this is Genny's peak, this will be her weakest incarnation to date, exceeding her previous record low of 45 knots (50 mph)/999 mbar (hPa) in 1996. But hey, at least we got eight EPAC storms before August! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:14, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * I really doubt she will strength more, upper level winds are screaming to Genevieve to come. I am sorry the name was use for this fail. Hernan sounds strong and most of the time have been a hurricane, if the invest close to her develop expect another weak ts. I knew that if a lot of invest form next to each other they would bring shear to each other.Allanjeffs 20:41, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genevieve's LLCC is to the west of its primary convection due to wind shear. Based on Dvorak numbers of T2.5 and a scatterometer overpass, the NHC has kept the storm's intensity. With an unfavorable environment and decreasing SST's, Genny should begin to gradually weaken from here onwards. A trough has weakened the STR steering the system, and it should continue to slow until it rebuilds in a few days. Steve, I doubt Genevieve will intensify any further due to what it is about to meet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:08, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Maybe there's still hope. NHC says that the shear should diminish in 24 to 36 hours, and if Genevieve survives until then, we could see a stronger storm than we thought we would. Maybe not necessarily a hurricane, but Genny only has to reach 50 kts to become the third-strongest storm of the season. Man, what a pathetic year it's been for the EPAC since Cristina. :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:58, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * There's probably no hope, already weakening, NHC predicts a TD in 36 hours, I think sooner. RIP in pepperonies. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  09:37, July 26, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Genevieve
"Rest in pepperonies?" I might have to use that going forward lol. And yeah, I take back what I said, Genevieve is down to a TD and the circulation is becoming elongated. To make matters worse, models are becoming less enthusiastic about 8-E... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:00, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, where does your reference come from? :P Anyway, with Genevieve, deep convection has been pulsating, but Dvorak estimates have caused the NHC to lower its intensity to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). Genny is still moving slowly westwards, but its degeneration will prompt the STR guiding it to increase the storm's speed. She tried...and became Fausto and Wali all over again! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:39, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ask HurricaneSpin. He said "RIP in pepperonies" above and I paraphrased him lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:31, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow we have yet another epic fail! I was hoping the name "Genevieve" would be used for a hurricane but I guess not. Genny should probably die out tonight but the NHC forecasts it to be remnant low by Sunday. Fausto 3.0!!! (2.0 was Wali) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:20, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wind shear is completely over Genny right now, and the LLCC is detached from the remaining convection. While environmental conditions may degenerate the storm as early as tonight, if it holds on long enough, the NHC states it could regenerate in the CPAC. Genny should continue moving westwards under the influence of the STR, now that it has become a shallow cyclone. No intensity change AFAIK. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:18, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hold on, Genevieve is starting to pull a Douglas. A recent burst of convection has occurred near the center, prompting the NHC to hold its intensity based on TAFB Dvorak estimates. Nevertheless, the system is a sheared and dry environment, with degeneration expected by tomorrow morning. However, GFS, HWRF, and GFDL forecast Genny's regeneration in the CPAC within a couple of days as it moves into a lower shear environment, while ECMWF and UKMO forecast Genny to remain a shallow remnant low for the next five days. The system is expected to be steered westwards by low-level easterly flow from a STR for the next 48 to 72 hours, but afterwards, the models disagree on whether or not Genny will continue move westwards or west-northwestwards. This is somewhat off topic, but the song Titanium by David Guetta is coming into mind. Like Doug, Genny is trying to prove shear will not let her down. She is a fighter, and not the fail some of you are calling her! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:11, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow, Genny is fighting hard! Although the LLCC is completely exposed to the west of the main convection, TAFB estimates are allowing the NHC to still maintain its intensity from my third post above! Wow! Little intensity change is forecast, and degeneration into a remnant low is expected in ~24 hours. Afterwards, however, as the environment becomes more conductive for development, Genny could regenerate later on in the CPAC; it just crossed into the basin as of the 0900Z advisory. I will also note the JTWC keeps Genevieve a tropical depression for the next five days in their forecast. The depression is moving westwards at around eight knots (9 mph, 15 km/h) under the influence of a low to mid-level ridge. After 48 to 72 hours, Genny should begin to turn more WNW, where it is expected to continue to move towards for the rest of its life. I think we definitely have another Douglas in the making... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:49, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * The first CPHC advisory still maintains Genevieve's intensity based on TAFB estimates, and it is now expected to stay tropical for another 36 hours as it moves generally westwards. Any comments? :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:55, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sorry Andrew, but I'm not really as impressed with Genevieve as you are. I mean it's cool that Genny is staying resilient, but when Douglas pulled the hanging-by-a-thread yet, it was still a tropical storm. Genny is just a tropical depression. It'll have to stick around as long as Douglas did to impress me. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:26, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's okay, I just am surprised by the fact Genny is clinging on for her dear life. Although VWS of 20 knots and some dry air is attacking the system per the recent CPHC discussion, its LLCC is now obstructed by cirrus cover from deepening convection in its eastern quadrant. As a matter of fact, PHFO suggests a slightly stronger intensity than what the CPHC reports. Motionwise, the low to mid-level STR is still steering Genevieve westwards, with the NNW turn expected in about 24 hours. I would like to point out Genny will be entering a less hostile environment in ~48 hours, so we may see some reintensification there (hopefully!). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:12, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm also surprised to see Genny cling on. Douglas 2.0 anybody? Hopefully it re-strengthens once it enters the less hostile environment! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:51, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve
Failbo No. 5:

''A little bit of Douglas in my life  A little bit of Elida by my side  A little bit of Amanda is all I need  A little bit of Fausto is what I see  A little bit of Wali in the sun  A little bit of Genevieve all night long  A little bit of Hernan here I am '' ''A little bit of you makes me your man ''

Sorry folks, but Genny is ding dong dead. So ends the season's fifth - and thanks to Hernan, final - fail in a row. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:47, July 28, 2014 (UTC)

You beat me to it. Just read the advisory and it  looks like Genevieve will not make a comeback. She is done.Allanjeffs 02:51, July 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would not rule on out. Really depends on 93E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:34, July 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * The CPHC has the remnants of Genny at 30%, it still has a slight chance at coming back to life guys :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:12, July 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * The CPHC said Genevieve had a chance of coming back when conditions became more favorable, and hopefully they are right! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 30%, but looks much better now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:00, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Genevieve (2nd time)
Should peak as a weak TS again.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:45, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * YES!!! I knew she could do it! Deep convection has appeared near Genevieve's center, prompting the re-upgrade! Winds are currently at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), accompanied by a pressure of 1009 mbar (hPa; 29.80 inHg). The depression is moving westwards under the influence of the southern periphery of an STR, and it will eventually turn more northwestwards in the next few days as low-level easterly flow comes into effect. With the shear over Genny expected to relax, most intensity models predict it reaching TS intensity again in ~12 to 24 hours. But the storm is only expected to reach 40 knots (45 mph) before shear kicks in and gradual weakening occurs. No word from the JTWC yet. Well, Genny sure is pulling a Doug! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:42, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yay, she did it!!! C'mon Genevieve, restrengthen to a TS! You can do it! I'd say she's the CPac version of Douglas. What a great fighter you've been Genny! :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:00, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genny's LLCC is located to the east of the primary convection, which shear is beginning to creep up on. Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from the SAB, CPHC, and JTWC have resulted in the depression's intensity being kept. A general westwards motion is expected as Genny is guided by a STR well to the south of Hawaii. With higher shear values and dry air beginning to attack as well, the depression should intensify rather slowly to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) in the next 24 hours before the environment becomes too hostile for further development. The JTWC also expects a similar westwards movement. Also, for the record, Genevive has had 17 advisories to it; this is the fourth highest number of the season, behind Amanda, Cristina, and Douglas. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:53, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm starting to not think it'll become a TS once again, but it still has a chance. C'mon, Genny! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:30, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Vertical wind shear (VWS) and some dry air continue to affect Genevieve's development. Convection is waning and becoming further detached from the LLCC. Southwesterly VWS has been analyzed to be around 10 knots per UW-Madison analysis, with 16 knot values being reported by SHIPS. Based on JTWC and SAB intensities, the depression's intensity is being maintained for Advisory 20, although a recent ASCAT pass found 25 knot winds in the southwestern quadrant. It failed to analyze the eastern quadrant, however. Genny should continue to move westwards under the influence of the building STR, with little change in motion expected. For the next 24 hours, shear conditions will not get any better, which could prompt degeneration again. Even after the conditions improve, it is still doubtful Genevieve will get any stronger, and most models now fail to see re-intensification to a TS. Genny's trying hard...and she's struggling very hard. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:45, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Genevieve (2nd time)
It could regenerate later for the third time.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:43, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genny has become a low-level swirl again. It has tried so hard just like Doug; I am not giving up hope yet. The depression is forecast to move westwards the influence of a low to mid-level ridge for the next three days before it turns more WNW as it reaches the end of the ridge. With shear values of 15 knots reported from SHIPS, most models indicate ex-Genny will stay a low for the time being. However, SHIPS really loves the depression - it predicts potential regeneration in the next 48 hours. Chances of regeneration are currently at 10% for the next two days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow this system is really trying so hard! It just won't die! I hope Genny can come back to us for a third time, it seems slightly likely. C'mon Genevieve, make one last show before dying out for good! :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:52, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Ex-Genny is now 550 mi SSE of Hawaii. Chances of formation have fallen to near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:16, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hold on, there's more!-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:38, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * She is looking really good. She might be our next typhoon as the models are showing a cat 2 with her.Allanjeffs 05:45, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Genevieve (3rd time)
Quoted from CPHC: "Thunderstorms associated with former tropical depression Genevieve have become better organized during the past 6 hours. The center of this system, which is moving westward at about 10 mph, is located about 515 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. Latest satellite data indicate that Genevieve is redeveloping into a tropical depression, and advisories will be reinitiated for this system at 5 am HST this morning.


 * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 100 percent."

OH YEAH!!! She's not done yet! This is what you call a true fighter! And as if that is not it - TCFA! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:28, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Advisories out. Expected to cross the dateline as a TS.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  15:32, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expect this one to strength to a typhoon or a major typhoon in the Wpac.Allanjeffs 19:12, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * So much for CPHC predicting Genevieve will have 10% chance of regenerating within 48 hours...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:36, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Genevieve (2nd time)
Back to a TS.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:07, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * THIS IS JUST INSANE! How can a storm regenerate three times like that?? Even more surprising is that it only peaked as a moderate TS throughout its whole lifespan! Wow Genny, you're one of the biggest fighters I ever seen! In fact, like Allan said above, it could even strengthen to a strong typhoon after crossing the dateline. Wow!!! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:27, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Genevieve (4th time)
Genevieve pls...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:57, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * This one could actually last into WPac like Allan said before, it's extremely rare for a storm to (nearly) die in the EPac but regenerate in the WPac, though it has happened before, as evidenced by Typhoon Georgette in 1986. We'll see...though I do have to say, I'm very impressed Genevieve managed to last this long. Ryan1000 11:08, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Genevieve, don't die again! I want to see if you can survive to the WPac! You've been a great fighter, and I'd like to see you become something strong in the WPac (even though it's too early to tell if that would happen). -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:28, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * genevieve
 * what u doing
 * genevieve
 * stahp  “i liek turtlez 18:54, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Guys, calm down please. Although an 0830 UTC scattometer pass shows the LLCC was further south than the CPHC thought it was and only sampled winds of 20 to 25 knots, that doesn't mean Genevieve is quitting. As a matter of fact, albeit a weaker presentation, gradual intensification is expected from the storm in the next few days. While 15 knots of shear may be over Genevieve ATM based on UW-Madison analysis, the shear should decrease after ~18 hours based on SHIPS forecasts. In addition, SST values should be around 28C in the storm's forecast path. It may be a while, but both the CPHC and JTWC forecast reintensification into a TS in ~36 hours and then hit near hurricane intensity in ~5 days. An STR in place for the next 24 to 36 hours will dictate a generally westwards motion of Genny, and from there, it should gain latitude as it rounds the edge of the trough. What's there to cry about? Genny's tried hard for the past week, and she's clearly not done yet. As a matter of fact, she could become the first storm since Jimena '03 to exist in all northern Pacific basins! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:03, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 13)

 * GFS develops this in like 10 days I think. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:44, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Currently behind 93E, ahead of Hernan. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  05:49, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Weak low. Could form in the CPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:14, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

10/20. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:00, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Cloudiness and showers in the AOI is rather disorganized. It could develop, but environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable later this week. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:28, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I don't think it'll develop into a TC either. It's just a random low, IMO. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:31, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invest'd. 10/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:45, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower and thunderstorm activity is rather disorganized in Invest 96E, and upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for development. Any development at all is going to be slow as it moves westwards. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:17, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds may become conductive for additional development over the next few days. Chances of formation remain at 10% for the next 48 hours but have been upped to 30% over the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:10, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Development might be slightly likely, but I still don't see much coming out of this. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:53, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * 96E has crossed into the CPAC basin. It is still rather disorganized, and any development at all is going to be slow for the next few days. Nevertheless, chances of formation are up to 20% for the next 48 hours per the CPHC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:25, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * 96E's shower activity remains very disorganized, and upper-level winds are not conductive for development. Chances of formation have fallen to 10% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:11, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 17)

 * Atlantic forum link: 2 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI has become TD Two in the Atlantic. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI is on the TWO, and it could gradually develop into a low pressure area later this week. Chances of formation for this system are near 0% for the next two days and near 20% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:11, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS is aggressive with this, and makes this the strongest of the batch. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:44, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope this becomes a powerful Iselle! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:25, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sorry about the confusion with these AoIs and there corresponding tropical waves. TWO can be quite ambiguous with which waves are which. This one is remnants of TD2 btw, currently over Central America. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  05:53, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI could gradually develop as it moves generally westwards. It is now on the NHC TWO with a near 0% of becoming tropical in the next two days and 30% in the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I believe that we might see an Iselle out of this AOI. Environmental conditions seem favorable enough, and I hope it won't be a weakling fail TS. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:51, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * We might, but we are arguably in a downward MJO phase for now, so it may have less time to develop that we normally would expect. CPAC is where it is at for now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:58, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:07, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Shower and thunderstorm activity in ex-TD Two is disorganized ATM, but environmental conditions should favor gradually development as it moves gradually westwards. I think we could see a TC form in the next several days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict we'll see Iselle out of this. Environmental conditions are favorable enough! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:33, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
60/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:46, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 97E has become better organized, and with environmental conditions are conductive for additional development, it could become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it moves westwards. Chances for formation are now at 70% for the next 48 hours but remain at 80% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:29, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is about to be declared a depression by the end of the day. I hope we'll see a Hurricane Iselle out of this invest! I'm sick of these fails that do nothing but be name thiefs (Elida, Fausto, Wali, and Genevieve for example), and even though Hernan broke the streak, I hope Iselle becomes a hurricane too! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:44, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Iselle
Hi Iselle.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:05, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, hello there! Convection has wrapped up pretty quickly in the past few hours, and TAFB and SAB report Dvorak estimates of T2.0. Due to an ASCAT pass signaling gale-force winds in the eastern quadrant, we have Tropical Storm Iselle, with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) and a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). As a matter of fact, the NHC claims that estimate is conservative. With no VWS expected to halt Iselle's development and SST's of 27-28C, we could easily see intensification over the next three days. SHIPS forecasts a 44% chance of a 25 knot increase in winds in the next 24 hours and brings it to hurricane intensity around the time. The NHC, however, is less aggressive and gives the storm roughly 48 hours to become a hurricane. Located to the south of a mid-level ridge, Iselle should move relatively WNW for the next four days, until the ridge weakens and the storm slows down. It sure is a surprise to see Iselle present already. This is the fastest date for a season's tenth named storm since Howard in 1992 - which got that storm on July 27. This is quite a season! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:48, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle should hit 70 knots (80 mph) per the NHC, slightly stronger than Hernan. Also, Iselle's formation is the fourth earliest date for an EPAC season's tenth named storm, behind only 1970, 1985, and 1992. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:26, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * I am pretty sure that if she wants to she might be a major.Allanjeffs 23:38, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here we go again! I'm not 100% sure it will be a major, but it should be another hurricane. If it RI's, it'll have a chance to become a major. But models aren't that aggressive with it, and there could be modest wind shear. Still, a Cat 1 or even 2 is doable. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:40, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Convective tops are mainly to the north and east of Iselle's center, and an upper-level trough to the NW has enhanced poleward outflow. Based on TAFB and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates have pinpointed the NHC to raise Iselle's intensity to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). SHIPS continues to indicate a 40% chance of a 25 knot increase of winds in the next 24 hours. Steady intensification to the NHC forecast peak of 70 knots (80 mph) is definitely possible for the storm in the next couple of days, given the conditions ahead of it. However, after 72 hours, SST's will somewhat cool, prompting gradual weakening. The STR should steer Iselle generally WNW for the next few days, and after that, as the ridge degenerates into a low to mid-level trough, the storm should move more westwards. Meanwhile, the JTWC has issued its first advisory on Iselle with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h); they also forecast a peak of 70 knots (80 mph) but predict slightly more rapid weakening. Hopefully Iselle becomes a hurricane like Hernan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:46, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Very deep convection and a CDO feature have both developed in Iselle. Also, an AMSU microwave pass shows a partial eyewall in the core!!! Based on ASCAT-B data, the NHC has upgraded Iselle's winds to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) and lowered its pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Snap! Just like that, we have our season's fourth strongest storm in terms of windspeeds! With warm SST's and only light northeasterly shear ahead of it for the next 48 hours, Iselle should further strengthen; it is expected to hit 75 knots (85 mph, 135 km/h) by the latest NHC forecast. However, after the next couple of days, the environment will become more stable and Iselle should gradual weaken. As the STR to the storm's north persists, most models predict a generally WNW motion of Iselle over the next few days. After that, a trough should prompt more westward motion, based on the models. Regardless of what Iselle does in the future, I am proud of her accomplishments so far, and I hope she can RI, as she has the core to do so. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:06, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF brings this to 55 knts. Things are quickly escalating. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:11, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle has almost a full ring of convection now and is beginning to develop an eye-like feature in its western quadrant. Based on TAFB, SAB, and UW-Madison Dvroak estimates of 35, 55, and 63 kts, respectively, Iselle's intensity has been risen to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), confirming the ATCF estimates. The pressure is estimated to be at 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). For the next three days, the STR should continue to propel Iselle WNW. Afterwards, an amplifying mid-level trough offshore California, along with a mid-level high northeast of Hawaii, should steer the storm more westwards. Ten knots of northerly shear is affecting Iselle from the west, which may be why convection is not doing so great there. However, after 24 hours, the shear should subside, and combined with SST's of 26C and more stable air, Iselle could intensify into a modest 75 knot (85 mph) hurricane, gradually weakening hereafter. The JTWC is slightly more conservative, with winds of 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) being reported from them and gusting to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). Their forecast is rather similar to the JTWC's. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:12, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it becomes a hurricane! You have the potential, Iselle! In fact, I want to see it try to reach Category 2 strength, especially with its well-organized core. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:55, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, despite its bonafide structure, Iselle's convection has become a little ragged and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates have dropped from this morning. Iselle's intensity has been maintained, and the NHC notes it could stall intensitywise due to modest shear kicking in. Fortunately, that shear should abate and SST's of 26C will likely support additional intensification for the next few days. Also, the expected peak intensity from the NHC has been lowered to 70 knots (80 mph). The STR to Iselle's north should continue to drag it WNW for another three days or so, before a mid-level ridge slows it down and then turns it more westwards on days four and five. The JTWC has a rather similar forecast for Iselle. If Iselle does become a C2, Steve, it's going to be a stretch. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:51, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Iselle
Hurricane #4, coming right up! 65 kts/992 mbar as of the new advisory. I definitely like what Iselle is selling us. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:40, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steve may be right after all. At this rate, we could see a Cat 2. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:52, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep she might she has another 2 days. A cat 3 is not out of the way.Allanjeffs 05:48, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not bad, could easily become our 3rd major hurricane, and it'll be out to sea as well. The rainbands from Iselle could eventually reach Hawaii, but it should remain south of them in the long run. Ryan1000 08:32, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle has become better organized over the past several hours with a more well-defined inner core and a ragged eye feature present, based on satellite images and infrared data. Dvorak estimates are all over the place, but the NHC has calculated the average to be around 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) with a pressure of 988 mbar (hPa; 29.18 inHg) - Iselle has therefore displaced Hernan as our season's third strongest storm. A STR to the NW of the hurricane should continue its generally westwards motion for the next several days, with possible acceleration due to interaction with a ridge around 130W. Allan and Ryan, I'm not saying it isn't going to happen, but Iselle is in a region of decreasing SST's and moderate northeasterly shear. This will slow down the intensification pace, but the NHC still expect an overall favorable environment for another couple of days. They forecast a peak of 75 knots (85 mph), and I'd be a little more aggressive, calling for winds of 80 knots (90 mph). I won't be too surprised if Iselle hits C2 strength, but will be rather so if it becomes a major. Eventually, dry air and more significant shear will take over after a few days, prompting gradual weakening from the hurricane. I don't really care how strong Iselle gets since it's far away from land, but I do want something decent. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:11, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ok guys, Iselle has reached C2 strength. 100 mph/976 mbars! In fact I won't be surprised if it strengthens to a major. It wants to surprise us looks like!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF update has it at 95 knts/968 mbar. Will likely peak as a major tomorrow. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:30, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's expected to peak as a minimal major hurricane soon, but Andrew, the 5-day forecast now takes Iselle towards the Big Island of Hawaii as a tropical storm, so it might not be a total fishspinner. However, if it impacts Hawaii, don't expect it to be any worse than Flossie of last year. Ryan1000 10:58, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF makes it a major. Some models do bring it towards Hawaii as a high end TS/low-end Cat 1. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:21, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Could you please post a link to the ATCF file? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:31, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Iselle
Anyway, it just became official from NHC. 100 kts/965 mbar. Now I REALLY like what Iselle is selling us (pardon the pun, I couldn't resist) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:36, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks nice, could become a little bit stronger before weakening as it approaches Hawaii. Ryan1000 16:59, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iselle looks stunning on satellite imagery, I'm a bit surprised Iselle made it this far! It needs to weaken down a lot before approaching Hawaii, in fact, the last time I saw its forecast track it took it straight into Hawaii near the end of the forecast! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:30, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle: "I SELL WIND SHEAR!"  “i liek turtlez 18:53, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow! Nicely done, Iselle! Her eye cleared out on infrared satellite imagery, and the overall presentation has become slightly more symmetric. A combination of SAB, TAFB, and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates of 102, 90, and 110 kts have prompted the NHC to call Iselle our third major! Liz, Iselle isn't selling wind shear, she selling Amanda and Cristina her talent. ;) For the next few days, the hurricane should move steadily westwards due to ridging to its north, but it should slow down as the ridge weakens. From here, it should come near Hawaii due to the potential development of a mid-level high between Hawaii and California. Although vertical shear is no longer a problem, the thermodynamic environment is becoming more marginal, which should stop Iselle's intensification based on the NHC and JTWC forecasts. However, the NHC notes Iselle could still sneak in some more intensity, and I don't doubt that. Interesting fact - the statistical models show Iselle becoming stronger in the short-term, but the dynamical models show a stronger cyclone in the long run, near Hawaii. Regardless of what Iselle does, I hope only meteorologists need to remember it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:20, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * I knew it!!!  I had the feeling that she would become a major and I was right :) but I believe she could strength a little more or mantain intensity as she is sporting some annular characteristics.Allanjeffs 23:07, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * The cloud tops of Iselle have expanded abruptly in the past few hours, and the eye has become more distinct on satellite imagery. Convectional bands are beginning to disappear based on microwave imagery, and the Annular Hurricane Index is indicating an annular structure trying to form in the hurricane. This means Iselle will weaken very slowly albeit the increasing shear and decreasing SST's around it for the next 48 hours, until the even greater shear and even cooler SST's take over. Nevertheless, both the NHC and JTWC have kept the hurricane's intensity the same due to a consistency of intensity estimates. Most models forecast Iselle to maintain TS intensity until the Hawaiian Islands. The same westwards logic I described above is expected for the next three days until the mid-level high develops between Hawaii and California, causing a gradual WNW turn. At this point, Iselle is a threat to the Hawaiian islands, but it shouldn't be too bad for them. This is one impressive hurricane we've witnessed; please don't stop for now, Iselle! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:34, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 19)
Left Africa yesterday. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Atlantic forum link: 3 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * HWRF devlops this into something strong by day 5. Currently in the EPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:06, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope this becomes something, but the wave is going to develop very gradually. It has a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance for the next five days per the NHC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:32, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * If the above invest becomes Iselle, this might have a slight chance of becoming Julio but I wouldn't count on it. Development should happen only slowly. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:35, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Showers and thunderstorms are rather disorganized in the AOI, and any development of it will be gradual as it moves westwards at 10 mph. The system is on the TWO with a near 0% chance of formation for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:32, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * In my opinion, gradual development will result in Julio in a few days. C'mon, AOI! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:46, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/40. Could be somewhat strong as well. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:43, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Whoa! Despite disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, conditions are conductive for some gradual development over the next few days. Chances of formation are now at 30% for the next 48 hours and 70% in the next five days. I hope another hurricane comes from this! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:12, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
40/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:17, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope another hurricane comes from this :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:56, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * It may be disorganized, but environmental conditions will favor a TD by early next week from 97E. I don't know what to expect, however. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * SHIPS make this a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:26, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has become better organized! At this rate, we could see a TD by tomorrow morning! Chances of formation are now at 60% for the next two days and 90% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:51, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Models are very aggresive with this one. They are showing a major of Julio.Allanjeffs 05:51, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * 97E has changed little in organization over the past several hours, but it still has huge potential to become a TD. Allan, since this invest is right behind Iselle, I personally believe it could struggle a little to intensify. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:13, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really think we could see a major from future Julio. 80% for the next 48 hours and near 100% for five days, wow, I've never seen such a certain 5 day outlook before!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:32, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * 90/100. Models have came down slightly, but could be very powerful when it nears the islands. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:22, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of it becoming something powerful. It's in favorable conditions and I expect a depression to form by tonight! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:32, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity in 97E is closing in on the center, but the overall structure of the system is rather disorganized. Nevertheless, I won't be surprised if advisories begin to get issued at 2100Z. Also, the JTWC has issued a TCFA on 97E. Located at 14.1N 115.3W, 271 nm south of Clarion Island, MSI reports the LLCC is consolidating, and a 1549Z SSMIS microwave image shows most of the invest's convection is in the western quadrant. With low VWS, good outflow, and conductive SST's, they also hint at TC development. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:24, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 24)
Currently 93L. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:24, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

Bertha in other words.Allanjeffs 05:51, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yep, and I doubt it's going to cross over into the EPAC now. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:35, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Tropical Wave (July 28)
Just offshore Africa. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:24, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

August
Welcome to August in the EPac! I hope it'll become more active here and hopefully we'll see another major! I predict 6 depressions, 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane in the EPac for August. Let's make it an epic month! :) (Oh, and it'll really help if we archive the older discussions that are about storms that died out, I'm having some trouble navigating this page) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:55, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Steve, I was going to wait until 0000 UTC to make this...you could not wait another four hours? Anyway, I predict 8 depressions, 7 storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of around 50 units. The EPAC should turn around this month like it did in 2009! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:13, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * I couldn't wait another 4 hours because I wanted to beat you to the punch. :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:58, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * All - 0%

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * 4) Douglas 0% Was okay.
 * 5) Elida 0% Fail
 * 6) Fausto -3.14% an epic epic epic fail.
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

I agree with Dylan. It's way too early for this section, but I'm still gonna post mine anyways:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 21:34, August 2, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.
 * Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired.
 * Elida: 0% - Epic fail!
 * Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said
 * Wali: -∞% - See Fausto
 * Genevieve - 0.1% - Extreme fighter despite its weak TS strength. Gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness.
 * Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen.
 * Iselle: ? - still active


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's mine (because I want to get a head start (Sorry, Dylan)): (i'll remove the underline when we're further in the season)
 * Amanda: 0%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land.
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- currently active
 * leeboy100 (talk) 17:21, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

Eh, we don't have much right now, but I can't resist retirement predictions, they're fun as hell:

East Pacific:


 * Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic.
 * Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said.
 * Douglas - 0% - ^^
 * Elida - 0% - Nothing of note.
 * Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more?
 * Genevieve - ?? - Actually, it could...just could, do something in WPac in the long run.
 * Hernan - 0% - At least we finally got another hurricane.

Central Pacific:

Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Alright, here are mine as of June 30:
 * Amanda — <1% Nope.
 * Boris — ≤1% Nope.
 * Cristina — <1% Nope.
 * Douglas — <1% Nope.
 * Elida — ≤1% Probably nope.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel.
 * 2) Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub.
 * 3) Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe.
 * 4) Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay.
 * 5) Elida - 0% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she miserably failed. Not even Mexico witnessed anything from her!!!
 * 6) Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway.
 * 7) Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto.
 * 8) Genevieve - TBA - Still Active
 * 9) Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years.
 * 10) Iselle - TBA - Still Active

We have enough storms for me:
 * Eastern Pacific
 * Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise.
 * Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is.
 * Douglas: 0% -
 * Elida: 0% -
 * Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm*
 * Genevieve: Who cares?
 * Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally.
 * Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Central Pacific
 * Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often.
 * Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often.

Here's mine: - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it.
 * Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough.
 * Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed.
 * Elida: 0% - She didn't even try.
 * ??? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * My predictions for this season.


 * Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement.
 * Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying.
 * Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show.
 * Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed.
 * Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm.
 * Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam.
 * Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening.
 * Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying.

Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her.
 * Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one.
 * Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land.
 * Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast.
 * Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail.
 * Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all
 * Genevieve: Such a name use for a failure
 * Hernan??
 * Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee.
 * Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's my prediction