Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC Best Track for last year is out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

September
Welcome to September in the Western Pacific! I hope we can get some kind of typhoon streak going. We are really lagging behind in strong storms here. I expect 6 JMA named storms, 5 severe tropical storms, 4 typhoons, and 2 super typhoons, and an ACE of 65. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:58, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Toraji
This year sucks. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:29, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Seriously? Another weak storm?! With 10-minute winds of 35 knots (40 mph/60 km/h) and a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), it is expected to reach 45 knots (50 mph)/990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg) before dissipating. And yet another waste of a name/fail... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:16, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Well, Toraji's winds have increased to 40 knots (45 mph/70 km/h) (10-minute winds) and its pressure has fallen to 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg), but it should not get much stronger. And the JTWC has upgraded Toraji to a 35 knot (40 mph/65 km/h) tropical storm (1-minute winds). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:14, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

What's with all the little weaklings?! God, I'm tired of these. And I agree with Isaac829, this year sucks. If the Northern Hemisphere doesn't stop producing weaklings, then I will go furious. We need some decent major hurricanes, for once. And by "decent" I mean "storms that don't affect land that much", because I don't want any devastation... Steven09876 T 16:53, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Toraji
It's almost like Category 1 intensity for the NHem has become the new Category 5... Anyway, the JMA has upgraded Toraji to a 50 knot (60 mph/100 km/h) (10-minute winds), 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) severe tropical storm, and the JTWC has upgraded Toraji to 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute winds). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:24, September 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * And now Toraji is passing into southern Japan as a tropical storm, and will dissipate soon later. Ryan1000 01:55, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Toraji
Dissipated over southern Japan. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:08, September 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yawn. We have yet another weak TS. When are we going to get another typhoon already? geez Steven09876 T 02:01, September 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Guys,  I figured out why we're so dead. The TWC decided to name winter storms last winter, which made hurricanes jealous that they're not the only named storms out there so they've decided to not show up to the party this year. Mystery solved. And no, that's not sarcasm. Last winter's inactivity is literally why this year is dead. Ryan1000 17:29, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'll believe in the conspiracy :P  Isaac829 E-Mail  19:36, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * I knew naming winter storms was a bad idea! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:43, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this, too. The ATL, EPAC, and WPAC are all jealous. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:31, September 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * So, the TWC naming winter storms is the reason why we are so dead worldwide. The basins must have gotten very jealous. >:) Steven09876 T 22:56, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Actually naming winter storms was a good idea my aunt that lives in Vermont says she pay more attention to winter storms since now that they are name.So for public awareness is good.Allanjeffs 05:52, September 13, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Everyone is clearly losing interest in the WPAC. A 30 knot (35 mph/55 km/h), 1012 mbar (hPa; 29.88 inHg) tropical depression is spinning 870 miles (1400 km) east of Wake Island. Also, the JTWC gives this depression a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:17, September 7, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression
Wow. Just like that, the depression fades away. What a fail! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:41, September 8, 2013 (UTC)

Seriously, the WPac has been acting very quiet and weak lately. I hope we get another typhoon soon, and this depression was an epic fail. Steven09876 T 15:47, September 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Man-yi
Well, WPac's back up again with this storm. Forecast to peak as a C1 as it nears southern Japan, and passes just south of, or right over, Tokyo in 4 days. Ryan1000 02:07, September 13, 2013 (UTC)

Japan may need to watch out. Although Man-yi is currently at 35 knots (40 mph/65 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained winds) per both the JMA and JTWC, and its pressure is at 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg), it is forecast to reach winds of 55 knots (60 mph) (10-minute sustained) /980 mbar (hPa) per the JMA and 65 knots (1-minute sustained) (75 mph) per the JTWC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:55, September 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have doubts that this will be too severe for Japan as it parallels the southern coastline of the country, not to mention Tokyo has some of the best floodwalls in the world to protect from typhoon storm surges. They experience an average of one tropical storm or typhoon a year, last year typhoons Jelewat and Guchol passed near the city as tropical storms. I think a good analogy to this would be Typhoon Maria in 2006, a category 1 storm that nears Tokyo but turns away. Ryan1000 15:35, September 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Man-yi is finally here! I hope it won't be too bad for Japan. Steven09876 T 23:28, September 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Both the JMA and the JTWC now take this into Japan as a typhoon in 3 days or so, right near Tokyo as a cat 1. Now it'll probably be more like Fitow in 2007, a large cat 1 that caused about a billion dollars in damage and killed 7 in Japan. I doubt it'll be as bad as Talas of 2010 though, it's forecast to move very fast when it nears Tokyo, rocketing along at 20 to 30 mph. Ryan1000 01:26, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * The gfs and the Euro were predicting a major out of this one.Epic fail for those models unless it put RI.Allanjeffs 01:50, September 14, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
There are enough storms. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:51, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * All - 10% - Nothing seems to be worth retiring this year. (Except Labuyo)

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions:

JMA:
 * 1) Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all.
 * 2) Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not.
 * 3) Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths.
 * 4) Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi.
 * 5) Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 6) Rumbia - 5% - Fifty-five deaths, along with $1.25 million (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca an unlikely retirement candidate. Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * 7) Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good.
 * 8) Cimaron - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported.
 * 9) Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been.
 * 10) Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it will be bad at all for Vietnam.
 * 11) Utor - 40% - Utor could have been so much worse than it really was. Looking at a super typhoon explode so close to the Philippines was just unreal. The Philippines have quite the road to recovery and southern China was hit pretty good as well. However, despite the ugly $21 million (2013 USD) in damage, the eight deaths lowers my percentage significantly. If Utor had caused Bopha or Washi-like fatality totals, we could be looking at a typhoon with an 80% chance of retirement.
 * 12) Trami - 3% - Trami did cause 18 fatalities and property losses of $1.83 million (2013 USD). It also has caused serious flooding in China and the Philippines. Fortunately, most of those regions were in a drought, so there was some benefit from the storm.
 * 13) Kong-rey - 1% - Despite the two deaths reported from Kong-rey, I doubt it will be remembered.
 * 14) Yutu - 0% - Yutu was nothing more than a Western Pacific Gaston or Jose.
 * 15) Toraji - 0.5% - Toraji was not significantly bad for Japan or Taiwan.
 * 16) Man-yi - TBA - Still Active

PAGASA:
 * 1) Auring - 0.1% - No.
 * 2) Bising - 0% - No way.
 * 3) Crising - 2% - Not really.
 * 4) Dante - 0% - No way.
 * 5) Emong - 0.05% - No.
 * 6) Fabian - 0% - No way.
 * 7) Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it.
 * 8) Huaning - 0% - No.
 * 9) Isang - 0.01% - No.
 * 10) Jolina - 0.05% - No.
 * 11) Kiko - 0.05% - No.
 * 12) Labuyo - 50% - Maybe, but I will not guarantee it.
 * 13) Maring - 0.5% - No.
 * 14) Nando - 0.01% - No.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Might as well make mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Those are mine for now. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - <1% - Not happening.
 * Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha.
 * Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan.
 * Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this.
 * Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area.
 * Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse.
 * Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse.
 * Jebi - 8% - Meh.
 * Mangkhut - 10% - Not expected to be too bad.
 * Utor - 65% - Caused lots of damage over parts of Luzon, China got off better though.
 * Trami - 15% - It contributed to an already severe flood problem in China, hopefully it doesn't get much worse.
 * Kong-Rey - 15% - Some flooding, but nothing significant.
 * Yutu - 0% - Do it again! I wasn't looking.
 * Toraji - 5% - Some flooding in Japan, but likely not retirement-worthy.
 * Man-Yi - ?? - Might cause some damage in Japan.
 * Auring - 1% - Not enough.
 * Bising - 0% - Seriously?
 * Crising - 4% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening.
 * Fabian - 0% - What?
 * Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen.
 * Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines.
 * Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines.
 * Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands.
 * Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines.
 * Labuyo - 100% - Has been retired.
 * Maring - 2% - Mostly missed the islands.
 * Nando - ~0% - No real impacts to the islands.

Here's my predictions:

JMA names
 * Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough.
 * Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement.
 * Yagi - 0% - Failure.
 * Leepi - 0% - No way.
 * Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it.
 * Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse.
 * Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so.
 * Jebi - 0.5% - Nope.
 * Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it.
 * Utor - 55% - Caused lots of destruction in the Philippines and China. I think we have the first serious retirement candidate!
 * Trami - 10% - It did cause some damage and deaths, but I don't think it is going.
 * Kong-rey - 2% - Probably not.
 * Yutu - 0% - Nothing.
 * Toraji - 1% - Affected Japan, but it will not be retired.
 * Man-yi - ? - Still active

PAGASA names Steven09876 T 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it.
 * Bising - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Crising - 2% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Hell no.
 * Emong - 0.1% - No.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way.
 * Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse.
 * Huaning - 0% - Nope.
 * Isang - 0.1% - Not happening.
 * Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired.
 * Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines.
 * Labuyo - Retired.
 * Maring - 0.5% - It mostly missed the Philippines.
 * Nando - 0% - No Philippine impacts.

Labuyo has been retired due to its damage total. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

So we know that if a storm makes more than1 billion in damage and kill more than 300 lives is going to be retire.Now we know which ones are going out of the list.Allanjeffs 15:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not surprised it was retired, but I'm not sure if Utor itself will be retired. Sometimes a storms PAGASA name is retired but the JMA name stays, like Frank (Fengshen) in 2008, or many of the tropical storms in 2011 (except for Washi, which was retired by both PAGASA and JMA). Ryan1000 15:36, August 23, 2013 (UTC)