Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

August
It's already August according to UTC so, why not start it? I'm expecting more activity during this month. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:13, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico (again)
Yellow crayon is scribbled south of Mexico again. 5 day outlook is 0/30 and this seems much more likely to eventually be Jova than the above AOI. ~   Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:28, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * I may have confused the above dead AOI with this one. Hopefully this can become our next major. ~ KN2731  {talk}  07:43, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40, is this Jova? 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 17:31, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 0/40, but models have recently trended much weaker. Hopefully they are wrong. ~ Raindrop  (Rain rules!) 20:10, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now to 10/40. 3 years of my tracking... -70.190.5.175 03:31, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invest'd and 20/40. The TWO is now mentioning that upper-level winds might become unfavorable by Friday. Hopefully this won't steal the name "Jova"... ~   Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:32, August 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 20/50. Conditions still look conducive enough for Jova to develop. ~  Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:06, August 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * The 2-day chance was raised to 30%, while the 5-day chance is still 50%. We could get Jova from this, but it's not a certainty. It all depends on if this invest feels like developing or not. :P ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:26, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 30/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:03, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 20/30. I doubt that this one will form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:23, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Meh, there is still a chance that this could rapidly develop last-minute and be a brief TD or even a name-stealing spin-up, but that's not very likely. This has very limited time to get itself together before Friday. It seems to me that the EPac is taking a break. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:57, August 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Guess this won't be a TD after all. Down to 20/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:17, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * It is up to 40/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:22, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * And suddenly it went up. I hope this will form, anyway. May this become a TD though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:19, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now 50/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:47, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * I expect a TD and nothing more. Heck, this might even bust completely. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:57, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 60/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:38, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 80/80. Can be a TD in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:10, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Recently numbered, TD 11-E is not expected to be a TS due to cooler waters. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:06, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * It actually strengthened a bit to 30 knots (35 mph) but I still doubt it will be a TS. If it does, it would be a pathetic name-stealer that is worse than Failicia 2015. Models thankfully don't strengthen it to a TS according to the NHC discussion. I am glad to see it become a TD though. :) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:25, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope this steals the name Jova and is only a TS for six hours. >:) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:31, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would be pissed if this steals the name Jova. I have been waiting  for this name since 2011 when it was a major and it has always been used for hurricanes. 181.210.62.178 23:58, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Don't worry, this won't be Jova. NHC expects this to become a remnant low later. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:58, August 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is quickly dying off. The storm that could be Jova, however, make it a very strong storm, but it's 11+ days out. Usually, those are not accurate past 10 days. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:03, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * TD 11-E is forecasted to be a remnant low shortly after. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:07, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E
Downgraded into a remnant low. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:12, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Mexico
A new AOI popped up in EPac. Currently 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:32, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be Jova in the very long run, although the environment might not be particularly supportive. The NHC mentions that any development should be slow to occur. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:58, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * This will probably be Jova, only a very weak one at that. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:47, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:37, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Conditions won't favor any development here, and Jova will have to wait. The EPac is sleeping for now but it should wake up again by mid-month. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:02, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the 2-day TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:16, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's still on the 5-day TWO. Doubt this will form though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:34, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Per Steve's update: this AOI is gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:04, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Remnants of Franklin
It is on 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still 0/30. Franklin's [future] remnants are expected to help this AOI organize (if it really does) this weekend. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I noticed these are completely different systems (compare: 1 and 2, which is just one outlook apart). Can a disturbance really move northward that quickly? Anyway, this seems to have a pretty decent chance of (re)development in the long run. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:01, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * And it's now 10/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:18, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Increased to 20/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:30, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * 50/50. I not sure if it is Jova (likely going to form). Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:50, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now increased to 70/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:21, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * 90/90. This has a high chance to become Jova. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:08, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hello, or should I say, "Hei" in my native tongue. I'm a girl from Lillestrøm, Norway that has just come to make a point about this new storm. To be honest, I wanted to see a Hurricane Jova as it is a gender-neutral name (as that Dutch boy pointed out a couple of weeks ago) and it would be nice that a storm name without an assumed/obvious gender would have a strong hurricane status. People would have come on Twitter and pointed it out. But it won't happen as he/she won't be anything stronger than a weak tropical storm, based on models. Models are instead hinting at a strong Kenneth. I mean, KENNETH? Nobody would be interested in a storm named KENNETH as it is a basic and boring name! I am disgusted by this. Here is what I found on the interwebz regarding the low:

"Since Franklin did not survive the crossing of Mexico as an identifiable tropical cyclone, the new storm would get a new Eastern Pacific name. The next named storm in the list is Jova. By early next week, any potential Tropical Storm Jova will encounter a less conducive atmosphere for development, and it is unlikely that we will see a Hurricane Jova." Seriously? I am really annoyed that we have a name-stealer. Franklin, WE DON'T NEED YOU TO HAVE A NEW IDENTITY. YOU SHOULD HAVE KEPT YOUR NAME RATHER THAN CHANGING IT. ALSO I BLAME THE DRY AIR AND STRONG UPPER WINDS. I DON'T WANT A WEAK JOVA. Super pissed off. Who is with me? 169.51.72.247 00:18, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Kind of agree with you 169.51. Remember Earl and Javier from last year? Earl's remnants formed into Javier in the East Pacific. Javier (65 mph/997 mbar) is weaker than Earl (85 mph/979 mbar). I want Javier much stronger like it was in 2004. But instead, it was kinda weak. I don't want this to happen again. I would suggest it would be a TD  only. Or else, this would be a very bad name-stealer and even much worse than Failicia. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:01, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jova
GREAT. JOVA HAS FORMED. Expected to be very short lived and peak as a minimal tropical storm. FRANKLIN, WHAT THE HELL HAVE YOU DONE? WE DON'T NEED YOU HERE ANYMORE! NO USE USING A NEW IDENTITY TO EXPLORE THE PACIFIC! JEEZ NOW WE HAVE A NAME-STEALER. I WANTED TO SEE A GENDERFLUID HURRICANE!!!!! >:(!!!

THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND TONIGHT...

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST WE DON'T NEED ANOTHER FAIL SYSTEM!! ESPECIALLY WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE WITH AN AWESOME NON-BINARY NAME THAT PEOPLE WOULD HAVE GONE HEAD OVER HEELS FOR ON TUMBLR AND TWITTER! WTF!! (Girl from Norway who posted that angry note above)  169.51.72.247 03:21, August 12, 2017 (UTC) DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK -- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and is forecast to turn toward the west by late Saturday and enter forbidden territory. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova would probably never intensify, to be honest. Jova will start to weaken within 2 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS -- Sobbing SJWs on Tumblr that the non-binary storm would never be a hurricane. Expect to see severe flooding of up to 298000 feet. 169.51.72.247 03:25, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Didn't expect this to instantly become Jova and skip the TD phase. Anyway, Jova is expected to last until Monday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:58, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh great. Just great. Jova is already a failure already. I mean, it'll be a  weak fishspinner  that is Failicia. What have you done Franklin? Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:02, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * I expected a TD, not Jova for the first advisory. Anyways, conditions might be favorable enough for strengthening before Sunday. If it doesn't strengthen significantly I might have to write this off as a pathetic name-waste. At least we finally got a new named storm after 3 weeks without anything forming (except for the short-lived TD early this month). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:54, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * YES!!! I was hoping that the name Jova would be stolen. >:D (Jova is my least favorite name on the lists. Jova is still at 40 mph, and it could just peak there. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:33, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll be honest, I agree with you TG. Aside from Greg, Jova is one of the names which I am not a fan [of]. (My favorites in this list are Irwin, Lidia & Max; in the other lists, my favorites are Boris, Priscilla, Lane, Wallis, Vance and Guillermo.) Jova is now approaching Socorro Island as NHC expects it to peak at 40 kts (45 mph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:44, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I actually kinda like the name Jova simply because of the fact that it is a genderfluid name (although the NHC identifies it as female).  However, it's totally not my favorite name. Looks like we have a pathetic fail here. :/ Kenneth should be a better storm. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:08, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jova looks like she's becoming post-tropical. Jova could dissipate tonight if this continues. T  G  2 0 1 7 19:03, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Jova
You gotta be kidding me. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:53, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is the first EPac storm that bore the name Jova to not become a hurricane. My favorite names from the EPac are Guillermo, Blas, Kenneth, Emilia, Tico, and Winnie. While my least favorite names are Jova, Douglas, Gil, John, Javier, and Terry. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:06, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I was just going to point that out too! My favourites have got to be Fernanda (so glad that was a C4 storm), Lidia, Aletta (great to hear a Dutch name this time instead of Spanish and English names all the time), Emilia, Carlotta (I love Italian names), Illeana, Kristy (sounds cute), Tara (reminds me of a K-pop band), Xavier, Zelda, Cosme, Dalila, Flossie, Juliette, Priscilla, Lorena, Amanda, Elida, Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Karina, Odalys, Enrique, Felicia, Ignacio, Jimena, Rick (I will make a petition for a hurricane to be called "Roll"), Estelle, Celia and Seymour. Wish I can have a hurricane named after me, though.
 * My least favourites? Well, the names that are fit for old ladies and gentlemen. Winifred? Velma? Wallis? Yuck. John sounds boring, and I don't like Javier for some reason. Xavier is better.
 * Based on my tastes, what do you think I seem to like? (TG, I think you are one for edgy but oldish sounding names. You seem not to like plain names, or names that are just downright weird.)
 * ANYWAY LOL, this storm was a failure. NICE TRY FRANKLIN, you went undercover as an EPAC storm. NOW GET OUT! WE ARE NOT FOOLED!
 * (Yes, I was that Norwegian girl who posted yesterday. You can refer to me as Henriette, my real name.) 169.51.72.247 00:28, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jeez. I bet this storm will dissipate in a few hours. I'd rather listen to a terrible, out of tune Nicki Minaj song on loop for 10 days rather than sit through tracking this storm. 169.51.72.247 00:42, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * The intensity is 35 mph/1005 mbar. Also, it is a failure. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:02, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, what a miserable failure this is. Jova is like, as pathetic as Failicia. It should dissipate tomorrow due to increasingly hostile environmental conditions. Bye, disgrace to TCs! It's hilarious how Jova epically failed in front of the Wiki audience. 🤣 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:38, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jova is dead. Look at this: Jova doesn't even look tropical anymore. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:22, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Failicia 2.0 (Jova) is going to be a remnant low later today. This storm is pathetic. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:39, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Current advisory keeps it tropical, at 30 mph/1006 mbars. It should be a remnant low by the 8 PM PDT advisory. What a terrible fail this was. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:59, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova
Now downgraded into a remnant low. Bye, bye failure! Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:43, August 14, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Here we go again. Another one just appeared only on the 5 day TWO with a 0/20 chance of formation. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/40. The (slow?) race for Jova is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:29, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be Jova or Kenneth in the long run, depending on whether the remnants of Franklin develops first. Or that other AOI might be like Otto from last year and keep its name, depending on what the NHC thinks of it (I don't know if the "low pressure" that could develop within the remnants of Franklin is separate or is going to be a real part of the remnants). The EPac seems to be heating up again! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:07, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still 0/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:31, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * And it's still 0/40. It's taking its time to intensify I think. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:56, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Looks like it will be goddamn KENNETH now. -yawn- (Girl from Norway that posted earlier) 169.51.72.247 00:19, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/70 per latest TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:43, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * And Kenneth is most likely coming from this early next week. The EPac is heating up again after little activity from late July through the early part of this month. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:56, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/70, although conditions remain favorable for the development of Kenneth by the middle of next week. I hope it is an epic major! :) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down again to 10/60. It's taking its time to develop... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:18, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Come on Ken! Let's see you soon!! :D And please be a major! (I am Henriette who posted earlier) 169.51.72.247 00:29, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * I lost track of this. I am now confused. I don't know if this is the one downgraded to 10/40 or the other AOI near it. Oh well, the second AOI became 0/30, which means that this is going to be a longer waiting game than what we thought. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:42, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:52, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Jova
0/20. The EPac is becoming active again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:11, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/30. Proximity to a disturbance to the east (I think the 10/60 system?) could limit development until this moves westward away from it. We could be up to Lidia by the end of next week, if not sooner. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:20, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:01, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Long gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wait.. I think it's it's not. It is at 20/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:00, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 40/60. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * This literally disappeared from the TWO yesterday. I wonder what happened... anyway I hope Kenneth comes out of this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:37, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested. 70/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:55, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 90/90. TD 13-E should be coming (I feeling this is going to be unlucky). Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
Expected to become a TS later. Forecast to become a hurricane later next week. Will become a fishspinner though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:59, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * After seeing this wave going off the TWO a couple days ago, this came as a complete surprise to me. :O And this should also become a modest hurricane. It seems like the environment improved a lot for this wave (now TD)... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:11, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * It is forecasted to become Kenneth later tonight and become a hurricane by Sunday. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:24, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on!! Sadly he'll only be a Cat 1 :( HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 03:01, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kenneth
Ken's here. Owen 03:03, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

We need another storm named Barbara or Barbie right now. (Anyway, sadly only gonna be a Cat 1) HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 03:07, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hello, Kenneth. :) I swear, it has been a very active season here. For comparison, 2011 ended at this name, and this year we are at this name in the middle of August! This should not match the intensity of its predecessor though. Since NHC forecasts are often conservative, and this has 3 days of favorable conditions, I won't be surprised if this edition of Kenneth squeaks in C2 intensity. A major looks unlikely, but it's still not 100% out of the question. And Henriette, Barbara will return in 2019 so you will have to wait two years. Your own name will also be used in 2019! Names rotate every six years, and those two names were last used in 2013. Sounds exciting, huh? :D ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:25, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hi Kenneth! Anyway, the intensity is at 35 kn/1005 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:41, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * This won't affect land, so it'd be nice if it got to cat 2 or 3 intensity, but it doesn't have much time to become a strong hurricane, though I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane at all. Gotta love how the NHC initially expected this to be a fail and now we'll have a hurricane on our dorrsteps. Ryan1000 10:39, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 40 knots (45 mph)/1003 mbars. NHC notes that this could be conservative, as Dvorak-T numbers are around 45 knots from various agencies. It's forecast to be only a weak hurricane but I feel it could get somewhat stronger than that. I highly doubt it will be a major, but I think a C2 is an outside possibility. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:43, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, Kenneth has come together quite quickly in the past several hours! A beautiful CDO is now apparent on visible imagery, although the NHC discussion notes that there still is some shear affecting the storm. Based on latest Dvorak estimates, Kenneth's intensity is now 55 knots (65 mph), with a pressure of 997 mbar (hPa). Already stronger than Jova, the NHC prognosticates Kenneth to move gradually to the NW under the influence of a mid-level ridge to its north. Intensitywise, they now predict that this storm to become a hurricane in as soon as 12 hours, but given the latest intensification trends, I won't be surprised if we see an upgrade in the next advisory. Also, the NHC has raised their forecast winds for Kenneth up to 80 knots (90 mph), but Category 2 status is definitely within reach. Due to shear increasing and SSTs decreasing in a couple of days, though, anything stronger is likely out of the question. Steve, we're actually progressing at a similar pace as last year (excluding Pali); Kay also formed on August 19. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:45, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
This one's at a 0/10 chance. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Already off the TWO and the other AOIs are also at 0/10 chance. This basin is sleeping again. A bit odd that the overall environment does not seem particularly supportive in August in the EPac. At this rate (unless we are lucky), Kenneth might not even come at all until at least the end of the month. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:00, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Gone from the TWO. Inactive month, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
A new 30/50 system is just west of 140W, and has already been invested along with the below system. I think there is a pretty decent chance of Walaka coming from this. Last name before the lists reset! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:41, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 40/60. I won't be surprised if this is Walaka. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:14, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 60/80. This is almost certain to become a TD. Hopefully it will be Walaka soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Scratch what I said above. This is down to 50/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * It still has a chance though. If it quickly develops during the next couple days, Walaka is possible (although it won't be more than a TS). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:09, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now it redeemed itself by going up to 70/80. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:30, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Good for this invest. I hope it forms quickly and become a fantastic fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:39, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 50/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:48, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 30/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:56, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * And this has suddenly flopped. The downfall of this system. Maybe this won't develop. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:08, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 30/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:33, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * What a flop this is. Sigh, I wanted to see Walaka from this invest. (Although it would have been a failure, anyway) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:14, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wait, maybe this is 91C? I'm not sure, but Tropical Tidbits only lists 91C as the only existing invest in CPac right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:00, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hmm, but I was pretty sure I got the invests correct when I first posted about them. This actually does look west like the 91C I posted about did (as opposed to near the dateline). We'll have to figure out when 90C died out and 91C came back and what posts in this section began to mention the actual 91C. On the Tropical Weather Discussion, the NHC shows what appears to be a surface trough at the same position as the former 90C. Earlier today it was showing as a dissipating low pressure area. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Steve and Anonymous 2.0, Invests 90C and 91C merged together into one system. The 1800 UTC TWO from the CPHC on August 15 shows two distinct areas of interest, but the subsequent 0000 UTC outlook only shows the resultant merger system. That being said, what is the system currently on the CPHC TWO classified as? The NRL homepage does not indicate any active invests. Regardless, the current AOI only has a 10% chance of formation for both the next 48 hours and five days. Degrading environmental conditions should impede any significant development. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:52, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
Development appears less likely than the above due to proximity, but it is 20/20 on the CPac TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:41, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off the CPAC TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:51, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wait, I think this is 90C, not 91C. Tropical Tidbits still has 91C, but not 90C. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:00, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Invests 90C and 91C merged together. See my comment in the former's section for more information. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:54, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:


 * 1) Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
 * 2) Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
 * 3) Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
 * 4) Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.
 * 5) Eugene - 1% - Eugene defied the odds and became a major hurricane, albeit for a short timeframe. There was some heavy surf in Baja California and Southern California, and this caused hundreds of rescues. Fortunately, there were no fatalities reported, and damage should be minor at most.
 * 6) Fernanda - ~0% - Fernanda became a powerful major hurricane and the strongest of the year so far. Moreover, it managed to survive into the CPAC. However, the only impact from this hurricane whatsoever was some surf in Hawaii, and that was likely not memorable for them.
 * 7) Greg - 0% - Greg, despite not becoming hurricane, lasted much longer than I expected and even managed to survive into the CPAC. However, with no land effects, it will most likely be staying (unless some Diary of a Wimpy Kid fanatic requests that the WMO remove this name).
 * 8) Hilary - 1% - Impactwise, it does not appear that Hilary was significant for Mexico or anywhere else, albeit moving parallel to the former's coastline. Although I have added a grace percentage to account for the (unlikely) possibility that this name will be retired due to the connotation with Secretary Clinton, I would like to note that the names of other prominent politicians of the countries surrounding the EPAC (e.g. Enrique) have been on these naming lists since their inception back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and were not removed because they took power.
 * 9) Irwin - 0% - Irwin became decently strong in spite of its proximity to Hilary and lasted for a while as well. However, it will go down in history as just another harmless hurricane in the EPAC.
 * 10) Jova - ~0% - To be honest, if Jova had not formed from Franklin's remnants, I would not have even mentioned this system. Sure, it passed near Socorro Island, but absolutely no impact was reported whatsoever there or elsewhere.
 * 11) Kenneth - TBA - Still Active

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 16:35, August 10, 2017 (UTC))

Steve's Retirements
Alrighty. I will do mine

(Retirement colors: <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) '''

Notes:
 * A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

Retirement predictions and grades begin here:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#F20">D- - A weak failure and a fishspinner, but saved from getting an "F" or lower by the fact that it was the earliest named storm ever in the EPac zone.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#0A4">10%, <font color="#F00">F - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#068">2.5%, <font color="#A00">F- - Even weaker than the above two storms (this was 40 mph vs. 45 for the others). Retirement is about out of the question, as this was less destructive than Beatriz and caused no deaths. This would be Z--(x∞) had it not done something.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#02C">0.01%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Somewhat exceeded expectations in terms of intensity but never made C2.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#068">A- - Fishspinner that barely made major hurricane status, but tried its best.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#03B">A - An amazing hurricane that got pretty strong and lasted 10 days. The grade is prevented from being "A+" or higher due to the fact that it had potential for C5 strength, but failed to reach it due to the ERCs it did.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#F00">F - Despite continued forecasts for hurricane intensity, it failed to become one throughout its over a week of existing.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : <font color="#0C2">15%, <font color="#0B3">B - Didn't become a major despite predictions to do so, although it was quite resilient in the end, thus improving the grade from what it otherwise would have been. Slight but very small retirement chance due in part to the name's relationship to 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. However, she is much less notable than Donald Trump (Don in the Atlantic has a higher retirement chance as a result) due to Hillary not being the current U.S. president.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#0B3">B - A weak fishspinning hurricane that was quite resilient.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Jova :  <font color="#00F">0% ,  <font color="#600">Z--(x∞)  - A weak, pathetic failed storm!

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:02, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
<p style="font-weight:normal;">I'll do mine right now.

<p style="font-weight:normal;">50% or more: Italics Ok, here we go: <p style="font-weight:normal;">That's all for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:54, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

<p style="font-weight:normal;">Formerly: 70.190.5.175

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : 0% - Does get credit for being the earliest EPac storm on record. Multiple forecasts predicted Adrian to become a hurricane, and it didn't even become a 50 mph tropical storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#669">1% - When it comes to retirement, Beatriz doesn't even come close to the snubs. I wouldn't even give this more than a 1% chance of retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Calvin almost fizzled out before landfall, but there was minimal damage. This will be coming back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#889">0.01% - Dora caused some minor damage. Dora didn't impress me, but that's just my opinion.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : 0% - Eugene defied forecasts, and became a major hurricane...barely. I feel like Eugene could've done better. Eugene stayed out in the open waters, so he will be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#889">0.01% - The remnants of Fernanda struck Hawaii, and that doesn't count as much.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : 0% - Failicia 2.0.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : 50% - Hilary was forecast to become a major multiple times, and it never did. However, with political issues, Hilary could be retired this coming spring. It is more likely to happen to Hilary because the EPac is the only one who gives the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment. I think that this and Don could be retired.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : 0% - Out in the ocean. I doubt this will go.

Raindrop's Retirements
Adrian: 0%, grade <font color="#F50">D - Extra credit for becoming the earliest tropical storm in the EPAC proper, minus three letter grades for being dissipated when it was forecast to be a 100 mph storm. Seriously, what was that?

Beatriz: <font color="#889">0.03%, grade <font color="#F00">F - A weak TS that made landfall in Mexico. It will be back in 2023 since Mexico has never retired a storm that has done such little damage. It doesn't get a Z as it still formed relatively early and caused impacts.

Calvin: Whatever the chance of winning the lottery is%, grade <font color="#A00">F- - It formed. It hit land. It died. It did not do much. It failed. It does not get a Z as it caused impacts.

Dora: 0%, grade <font color="#8F0">C+ - Just an average hurricane that formed, strengthened, peaked, weakened, and died. It did look pretty good at peak intensity. It gets a slightly better grade than an average "C" grade because it was the first hurricane of the season. It caused no impacts of significance.

Eugene: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - A fishspinner that did make major status, barely. Therefore it gets an A, barely. Besides the fact that it strengthened more than expected, Eugene followed a rather straightforward path from formation to dissipation, which does not help its grade. No impacts = no retirement.

Fernanda: 0%, grade <font color="#00F">A+ - Fernanda was an amazing and beautiful storm that did not hit land. Its sudden RI to category 4 status was quite cool, and although it did not reach category 5 status, it gets an A plus due to its rather long lifespan and slight resilience when it was weakening.

Greg: 0%, grade <font color="#F80">D+ - Greg ended up underperforming forecasts in the end, but did have some interesting aspects to its life. (Most notably when it went from looking like it was going to strengthen to having an exposed center :P) Greg did briefly hit 60 mph before that, and that along with its long life give it an ok grade.

Hilary: 10%, grade <font color="#0B3">B - Hilary fell short of expectations, just like in the election, by not becoming a major when it was forecasted to for a long time. It still became a decent hurricane, and its brief restrengthening when it was over cold waters brings up its grade quite a bit. It gets a significant but small shot at retirement due to the name's relation to the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Irwin: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - Irwin was originally slow to strengthen, getting named while still having an exposed center. During its pretty long life, Irwin would always find a way to do just a little more than forecasts predicted, by strengthening to 90 mph and then near the end of its life refusing to die. The only time Irwin was not resilient was during its sudden rapid weakening from 90 to 50 mph in under 24 hours. The fact that Irwin was resilient in the end makes up for that. I give Irwin an A- as it was a lot of fun to track and looked quite pretty at times.

Jova:  0%, grade <font color="#600">Z-  - An epic fail, didn't even stay at TS strength for 1 day. The only reason it doesn't get the lowest grade is because it was never supposed to be strong in the first place.

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Adrian - 0.05% - that .05% is for Adrian being the earliest forming storm in the Eastern Pacific proper (excl. Central Pacific)
 * Beatriz - 4% - minimal impact, though there were a number of fatalities.
 * Calvin & Dora - 0% - see you both in 2023.
 * Eugene - 1.5% - for being the first major of the season. Will be back in 2023.
 * Fernanda - 2.5% - for being the first Category 4 hurricane of the season; also expected to be back in 2023.
 * Greg & Irwin - 2% - although weaker than Eugene and Fernanda, they were fun to track because of their relatively long lives. Both will be back in 2023 though.
 * Hilary - 3% - If we will only consider its actual impact(s), Hilary will be back in 2023. However, I am not sure if that will happen, given the political situation right now. While it may not get retired, but this may be removed (due to the name being very similary to Hillary Clinton, with the exception of its spelling of course). May become Adolph/Israel/Isis 4.0 (along with Don in the Atlantic).

More to follow.

Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Time to toss in my two cents: Ryan1000 22:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 0% - A rare pre-season storm, in fact the earliest ever in the East Pacific proper (up to 140W), but it didn't affect land, so, see ya in 2024.
 * Beatriz - 3% - Gets credit for its minor effects in Mexico, like in 2011, but it won't be retired.
 * Calvin - 1% - A little less severe than Beatriz.
 * Dora - 1% - It didn't make landfall, but its outer rainbands caused some damage to Mexico.
 * Eugene - 0% - It did cause some swells in southern California that prompted water rescues, but no one was killed and there was no damage, so Mr. Krabs will be back again in 2024.
 * Fernanda - 0% - A powerful and long-lived major hurricane, the second-southernmost on record in the EPac after Olaf in 2015, but she caused no impacts on land, so she'll be back again in 2024.
 * Greg - 0% - Lasted a while, but never became a hurricane, so meh.
 * Hilary - 0% - A failed intensity forecast, just like a failed presidential campaign last year. I personally doubt Hilary (and Don) will be removed from the naming lists just because they so happened to be the names of the two main U.S. presidential candidates in the 2016 election; if Hilary and/or Don are removed for that reason, I won't count them as retirements (due to impact) as neither storm was notable in that regard.
 * Irwin - 0% - Another fishie, but at least it became a hurricane.