Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

99P.INVEST
This invest is in the Arafura Sea. Cy10 E-Mail  12:52, April 15, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: SPAC: -- Cy10 E-Mail  15:43, April 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 40% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?
 * Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts.
 * Iggy - <5% - Probably not.
 * Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count.
 * Koji - Negative 10% - No.
 * Lua - 50% - Coin toss.
 * Cyril - 5% - Not enough damage.
 * Daphne - 10% - Flooding does count, but not enough.

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?
 * 3) Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad.
 * 4) Iggy - 10% - No.
 * 5) Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area.
 * 6) Koji - 0% - No way!
 * 7) Lua - 50% - A coin toss chance of being retired based on what everyone is saying. 
 * 1) Cyril - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Daphne - 3% - Affected little areas with flooding.

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)

Time for mine.


 * 1) Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail
 * 2) Grant: 10% - The first to cause damage in this season
 * 3) Heidi: 5% - Meh
 * 4) Iggy: 10% - Some damage and deaths in Indonesia, but other than that... nothing
 * 5) Jasmine: 10% - Idk..
 * 6) Cyril: 5% - This storm caused widespread damage to vegetation and plantation in Tonga
 * 7) Koji: 0% - Nah, didn't like this one
 * Lua: 45% - Aon Benfield data reveals $230+ million damage caused by this cyclone... and also Australia retires stuff based on damage and strength
 * 1) Daphne: 5% - Some rain...

&mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:25, April 3, 2012 (UTC)

My turn

AUS


 * 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ?


 * 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going.
 * 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him.
 * 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names.
 * 5 Jasmine:3% great intensity and big waves to some islands she definitely is not going
 * 6 Koji 1% What does this do??? nothing you are staying
 * 7 Lua 60% for now damage was not terrible and I want to see more reports but because Australia retires almost everything that is the number I put her of now
 * SPAC
 * Cyril 1% did nothing this was the only storm of this season what a shame it looks like it will be a record for this basin like it was record for the NIO last year.
 * Daphne 15% cause a lot of flood in the south pacific islasnds but not enough damage to be retire
 * Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Might as well:

Australia: South Pacific:
 * Fina - 0% - Nope.
 * Grant - 23% - Australia has a generous track record, but Grant likely won't go.
 * Heidi - 11% - Wasn't like Grant.
 * Iggy - 45% - Damage wasn't that bad for Australia, but it killed 16 people, so you can't say never here.
 * Jasmine - 5% - Most of the damage was small, despite it's immense strength.
 * Koji - 0% - No impact in the Australian region, and even it's second SWIO name didn't do anything either.
 * Lua - 70% - I heard damage wasn't as bad as it could have been, but because Australia retires almost everything that hits them, Lua gets a 7/10 chance.
 * Cyril - 5% - Something to talk about, but mostly not severe.
 * Daphne - 5% - I won't neglect the flooding in the SPac, but still, chances are not in favor here.

Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)