Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season/November-December

November
This season is almost about to close. But we still have one month left before the end of the season (expect December). Formation of storms are becoming less likely as, you know.  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 00:00, November 1, 2017 (UTC) 


 * Finally. What has been a catastrophic and horrible season is coming to a close. We will probably see Rina's formation this month and I believe we could go up to Sean by December 31, tying 2011's named storms (not counting unnamed TS). Hoping for Tammy and beyond would be pushing it, unless the Atlantic decides to pull off a 2005 November/post-season. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:44, November 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * At long last, this year's activity appears to be winding down. Given that this season is now by far the costliest tropical cyclone season on record, I think the Atlantic's finally had enough of churning out catastrophes. At most, I think we'll get one or two more tropical storms in the later part of this month, or maybe one post-season storm. Hopefully, no more damage or loss of life will occur due to an Atlantic tropical cyclone this year. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:28, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * We have a clean TWO.Is the season actually (as well as officially) over?12.144.5.2 05:17, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maybe, if the lull continues throughout the rest of the season. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:45, November 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, the GFS is picking up on something in the Western Caribbean in about 300+ hours. Nothing's for certain at this time frame though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:20, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * In the NHC's weather summary for October, they've indicated that ACE in October was about 40% above what a normal October experiences, and we're currently at the 5th highest ACE to date in the Atlantic, behind 1893, 1926, 1933, and 2005 (1995 and 2004 would get a few more ACE units later on, 2017 is only 7 ACE units from eclipsing the near-tie between those two seasons though). If we get another hurricane in November, 2017 could be up to the 4th highest ACE ever (or 3rd, if this year can surpass 1893's 231 ACE units). Ryan1000 20:47, November 3, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: 1000 miles east of Bermuda
0/20. Only on the 5-day outlook. Rina? Fr3d (talk) 18:31, November 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Isn't this that near 0% AOI that was drifting around here when Philippe was active? Ryan1000 20:47, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nope, it's a new one. Now 10/30. Fr3d (talk) 23:42, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, the previous AOI was a low pressure system that succumbed to upper-level winds and dry air a few days back. This is new - and the NHC mentions that a weak low pressure center has just formed within this system. Rina could be very possible from this, unless it decides to go bust like the previous AOI did. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:23, November 4, 2017 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Now an invest; 10/30. Fr3d (talk) 01:09, November 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * This appears to have relocated a bit further south like Nate's precursor did last month, though it could move NNE fairly quickly, so this had better get on with it before it moves into unfavorable conditions. Ryan1000 08:49, November 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:25, November 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Whoa, 50/70 now. --Patteroast (talk) 17:51, November 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Is it me or is the system rapidly organizing? Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:19, November 5, 2017 (UTC) Or is it neither one?
 * Yeah, I think it's rapidly organizing. It was at 10/30 all of yesterday, but only now are the chances of developing increasing by a lot. The NHC says that it's been showing signs of organization so it could very well become Rina before conditions become less favorable by Thursday. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:11, November 5, 2017 (UTC)

Wow, this thing actually has a decent chance to be Rina! User:Stacy54/It's November, but there's always next year 4:52 PM.


 * Now up to 70/80. Rina's coming! Fr3d (talk) 23:44, November 5, 2017 (UTC)

Wow, this might actually become Rina. This season just keeps going on and on. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 04:23, November 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen
Bam. It's here. - Garfield


 * It'll be Rina but it won't be a hurricane. Looking like a fish though. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:25, November 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Useless factoid: if this becomes Rina and fails to reach hurricane status, it will be the Atlantic's first 'R' storm to fall short. All five Atlantic 'R' storms up to now have become hurricanes; Roxanne '95 was a Cat 3, Rita '05 was a Cat 5, Richard '10 was a Cat 2, Rina '11 was a Cat 3, and Rafael '12 was a Cat 1. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:21, November 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope it does reach hurricane status so the lucky streak can continue. It's forecast to get up to 60 mph before extratropical transition, which means it could become a hurricane if it tries a little harder. Anyway, this TD is guaranteed to become Rina. This season just won't quit. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:15, November 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rina
And here she is. 40 mph/1010 mb


 * Quite the high pressure she has there. Crossing my fingers for a surprise Cat 1, but unless there's some kind of miracle, it won't happen. Send Help Please (talk) 02:55, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

Hello Rina. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 02:56, November 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Ahh...it's nice to see a fishspinner after all the destruction the season caused. What a relief :) Anyway Rina could become the first Atlantic "R" storm on record to miss hurricane strength, unless a miracle happens. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:15, November 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * And Rina is here. Since it'll not be threatening any land, I could just sit back and relax and watch this storm go. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:57, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

As of the 5 am advisory, pressure has gone down to 1009 mbars, further strengthening expected. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 09:07, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

Rina (native script: "莉奈"), こんにちは、大西洋へようこそ！(Hello and welcome to the Atlantic!) Should not be as mad as Ophelia once she passes towards Europe. Only expected to peak as a TS, something which an "R" storm has never done before in the Atlantic like what Stevie said :o Sit back and enjoy what is likely the last storm of the season! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 13:14, November 7, 2017 (UTC)

Winds up to 60 mph, Rina is intensifying pretty quickly. Watch Rina somehow strengthen into a hurricane... With the way this season has been, that honestly wouldn’t surprise me. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 08:54, November 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would like to see that. But it'll be a Post-Tropical Cyclone tonight. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, November 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * I would be surprised if Rina strengthened into a hurricane. It doesn't have much time before it becomes post-tropical. To be honest, it is likely near peak intensity. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:15, November 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Winds down to 50 mph. Won't be a hurricane though. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:40, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Yep, Rina is on her way out. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:50, November 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Rina to become Post-Tropical later today. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:25, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Post Tropical Cyclone Rina
She’s gone. Fr3d (talk) 15:19, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Gone. Rina is now post-tropical but still at 40 kt per two scatterometer passes. Blake had some interesting things to say in the last advisory. "Hopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking since, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year, seven of them still had another tropical storm after today's date." --182.58.124.69 15:22, November 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * That's not impossible, as the long-range of the GFS has been showing the potential for a dangerous storm to form in the southwestern Caribbean off of Central America before the season is out, like how Otto formed late last year, but the NW Caribbean is starting to become less favorable, as SST's aren't as warm there as they are north of Panama. Ryan1000 17:49, November 9, 2017 (UTC)

Bye Rina. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:49, November 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, bye. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:03, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

Bye Rina. I hope this is the final storm of the season, but I won't discount the possibility of Sean forming sometime through the rest of the month or even in December. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:14, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

Medicane Numa/Ex-Rina
Feel free to delete this if it's not wanted, but it seems Rina has directly re-developed into Medicane Numa - Garfield


 * Apparently the remnants of Rina became a European windstorm near the British Isles, and that system split into two, with the southern portion entering the Mediterranean Sea. That southern portion is now gaining subtropical characteristics. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:43, November 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * It looks quite remarkable on satellite imagery. An eye is visible, with convection around -50C towards the west. ASCAT also shows a closed circulation with winds around 35-40 kt. Kiewii 23:55, November 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks much like a tropical cyclone. Quite an unusual occurrence here. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:43, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, an unusual Mediterranean storm. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:49, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * First thing that comes to my mind when I heard "Medicane Numa": NUMA NUMAHowever I am so sorry to hear what happened in the Med. blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 18:21, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * The good old days of YouTube... XD Unfortunately, Numa killed 16 people in Greece due to extreme flooding (at least that's what I heard) :( ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:44, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * And it looks like Numa had dissipated today. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, November 20, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Disturbance near the Azores
Only on the 5 day outlook. Seems like the Atlantic's not quite done with us yet. Send Help Please (talk) 00:59, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could become Sean. Fr3d (talk) 01:41, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Currently 0/20. As long as it remains a fishspinner, I am okay with it. What a season though (so far). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:15, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Another one?! The Atlantic doesn't want to quit... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:48, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30. --Patteroast (talk) 13:11, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ummm... it has a chance to become Sean. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:32, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * This season just won’t quit. This is incredible. I just hope it stays away from land. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:01, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

FYI, it's quite uncommon for systems to form in the location where this AOI is at. If Sean comes from this AOI, it will join an elite club of systems that include the 2013 unnamed subtropical storm, 2009's Grace, the 2005 unnamed subtropical storm, 1990's Edouard, 1980's Ivan, and likely more that formed around here. 2012's Nadine regenerated in this region and of course Ophelia moved through this region as the easternmost major ever. Vince 2005 formed even further east than this. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:11, November 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/40 now. C'mon, keep doing what you're doing and set up the first repeat S storm! --Patteroast (talk) 23:33, November 11, 2017 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Invested. Here comes Sean! What a hyperactive season this year is... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:52, November 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * There have been quite a handful of storms to form in the vicinity of the Azores in the past, recently including Ophelia and Alex of last year, though there haven't been too many November storms to do so. Either way, if this becomes Sean, it probably won't do too much to the Azores, maybe some rain showers but that's about it. Fun fact: if this becomes Sean, it'll be the first time since 2005 (which also used this naming list) to have two or more storms form in November, with that year having Gamma, Delta, and Epsilon form in the month. Ryan1000 02:28, November 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * This season is really wanting to shape up into a 2005-like ending for sure. I think we will end the season at Tammy this year. Right now, this storm is at 10/40 still as of 7 A.M. T  G  My Birthday 14:03, November 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * If this becomes a TC, it will directly become TS Sean. AL, 96, 2017111212,, BEST, 0, 297N, 335W, 35, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 100, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, --182.58.120.95 14:18, November 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * NHC has it up to 30/50, now. --Patteroast (talk) 23:39, November 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * It would be cool to see this system become Sean, because that would mean we have the most active November since 2005. I'd even give an outside chance of seeing Tammy this year (if this system becomes Sean, of course). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:31, November 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I want it to be Sean. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:02, November 13, 2017 (UTC)

And now it’s an invest. Well, actually it’s been an invest for a day now, I’m just slow. Good grief, this season is stubborn. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:36, November 13, 2017 (UTC)

Also, I noticed that Patteroast is back. Welcome back Patteroast! Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:42, November 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * AL, 96, 2017111312,, BEST, 0, 311N, 333W, 35, 1013, LO, 34, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 100, 1016, 160, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 042, --182.58.111.73 14:34, November 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 40/50 per latest TWO. It will likely develop into a subtropical storm if it develops. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:38, November 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Or "if" it develops, because the NHC now says that upper-level winds will become unfavorable after the next couple days. I'm afraid that it might only be a weakling at most. Or it could even bust. Hopefully it becomes a subtropical depression, but not a name stealer. If this has to be Sean, it should try to get as strong as possible before upper-level winds arrive. I'd probably prefer the Subtropical TD option because of the Azores threat. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:20, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * 50/50. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 40/40. I doubt that it will form. Fr3d (talk) 18:02, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * It would need to suddenly organize right now to become anything. Rina could have very well been the final storm of this ridiculous season. But still, let's not rule out the possibility of a late-November or December storm. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:10, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Looking less likely that this'll become Sean, though it's not impossible just yet. The global models have shown the possibility of some development in the SW Caribbean, the 18Z GFS in particular showing a short-lived TS hitting the DR, though we only have two weeks left. Time is running out for the Atlantic to produce another storm before this historic season ends. Ryan1000 22:05, November 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. This will definitely not form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:23, November 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now off of the NHC site. Sean, if we even get him, will have to wait. I have a feeling we will see Sean at some point, but it’s becoming more and more unlikely. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:00, November 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * I have that feeling as well. Sean might be a late-November or December storm if it ever does come. However, I am not going to be surprised if Rina's the last storm of 2017. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:51, November 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * I feel confident about Rina being the last storm. I won't be surprised if Sean comes. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:50, November 16, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Disturbance near Central America
New disturbance popped up on the NHC site this morning, has 10/10 chances. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 13:14, November 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * I doubt it will form because of the strong upper-level winds that will keep it from developing. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, November 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I doubt this will develop to be honest. This historic, intense season could very well be over. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:41, November 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Upped slightly to 20/20. Still unlikely to develop though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:44, November 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * This was the wave the GFS showed potentially becoming a brief tropical storm near Hispaniola in a few days, but strong shear should keep this from becoming more than a minimal TS, if that. Ryan1000 07:12, November 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. Upper-level winds are ripping it apart. Will Sean even come this year? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:45, November 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dropped off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:45, November 18, 2017 (UTC)

December
Unless we get a post-season surprise, that pretty much wraps the season up. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:37, December 1, 2017 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Guará
Feel free to delete this if it's not wanted,but we have SS Guará right now with winds 8/9 (40-50 MPH).JoeBillyBob (talk) 22:14, December 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes, you can post about South Atlantic storms here. Last year we put up Deni and Eçaí. Anyway, it's not everyday that a subtropical or especially a tropical cyclone occurs here. Guará's current intensity is 45 mph/998 mbars according to Wikipedia, and it should move eastwards away from land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:20, December 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's almost impossible for them to turn into a tropical storm. Otherwise, it's a good occurrence. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:20, December 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * It dissipated. Bye! Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:27, December 12, 2017 (UTC)