Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season/Pre-season

AOI: Over the Yucatan
This is an incredible system. It has model support! It will likely hit Florida in 5-7 days and it may have a brief chance to develop into a subtropical storm in the BoC in a few days. Yqt1001 02:49, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Hopefully it forms.--Cy10-- 03:12, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah I have been tracking this AOI since the start of this week hopefully we will get Alberto from this it would be incredible.Allanjeffs 05:49, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Well it has about 40-50 kt shear over it right now :S —12R.KIEWII 16:30, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Consolidated well last night. Has a nice area of deep convection...if it wasn't for the shear, it probably would develop. Yqt1001 16:28, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not that surprised it's not developing; shear at this time of year is just too harsh for development. The window of opportunity for this to become Alberto, if any, is small. Ryan1000 18:05, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Anyways it has a small possibility any possibility even if it is small could make the AOI to develop .Allanjeffs 19:18, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Anyone have thoughts on the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm? This is a truly amazing event!Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 19:39, February 4, 2012 (UTC) NHC say this will dissipate on Wednesday. —12R.KIEWII 21:53, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

The system has 850 Vort and shear has dropped considerably since yesterday we still could have Alberto of this AOI.Allanjeffs 15:02, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
And its now an invest! —12R.KIEWII 16:34, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

We have a shot of having Alberto people Hurricane season may start early.Allanjeffs 16:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Beat me to it...ah well. It has a chance to be the first storm of the season, and first February storm in 60 years. This is incredible already. Ryan1000 17:03, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

 And even into the post season, my streak of posting about AOIs that become invests continues! I'm amazed that it achieved invest status though, but go Alberto! I want to see this! :D Yqt1001 17:21, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Nice looking, though the models still don't do much with it. They take it to minimal TS strength into Florida and then kill it. But if it becomes Alberto, we'll already make history in 2012. Ryan1000 21:01, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

OMG!!! I CAN'T BELIEVE WE COULD BE GETTING A FEBRUARY STORM!!! Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 22:39, February 5, 2012 (UTC) STWO out – 30%. —12R.KIEWII 23:55, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

you beat me anyway we have 30% of having Alberto and chances are increasing.Allanjeffs 23:58, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Well most of the cloud has dissipated from the system, however, we should start seeing more bubbling up tomorrow. —12R.KIEWII 02:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Well this is interesting. Didn't expect to be talking about an invest in early February! As warm as it's been though, it almost doesn't surprise me. In fact I was joking about it the other day, saying the season may start in April if this warm weather keeps up lol. It's got a nice circulation but non of the models develop it and shower activity has diminished. I'm sorry I completely forgot about the Hall of Fame! I got tied up with finals, then frantic Christmas shopping, then I went on vacation. I just forgot all about it. If you guys are game, we can go ahead and start right now. I'll go ahead and post the Pool of Twenty on the Hall of Fame page. Sorry again, guys. I have a bad habit of abandoning you come winter time! -- SkyFury 05:21, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Well it looks like we won't be getting a cyclone now. Down to 0%. —12R.KIEWII 12:25, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Oh, well. :( Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 13:11, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

You mean NEAR 0% Kiewii. But yeah, it's not happening. Probably the closest we've been to a February cyclone in a long time! 216.211.56.100 13:28, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

 Gah, it was so close, but now i'm pretty sure it missed it's chance to become Alberto. If that shear was a little bit lighter this would have been named easily. And Eric, you don't need to worry about "abandoning us" anymore. Check my user page. Im an official now. =) Anyways, yeah, i'd like to start the hall of fame thing whenever you wish to begin it, but if you have other things to do, don't worry. I'll be around for most of the year. Ryan1000 15:03, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

216, I do not care. Technically, near 0% IS 0%. Duh. —12R.KIEWII 16:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

I've posted the Pool of Twenty candidates on the Hall of Fame page. We're ready to go. You are free to decide which one's you think should be among the ten finalists and which ones you think don't make the cut. You are welcome to suggest other candidates, but keep in mind that there are 86 (!!) storms that are already in. I'll try and get the current members posted sometime in the near future so you guys know who the Hall of Famers are and can better judge potential candidates that I may have missed. -- SkyFury 06:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC)