Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is coming up, and the betting pools are up. I'll make some predictions for this season later, but if any of you guys have pre-season predictions, feel free to post them below. Ryan1000 03:56, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * CPHC will be merging their site to the NHC's in May. This should make finding advisories for CPAC storms even easier. Won't change the pace of CPHC TCRs though. Here's some other changes for this season.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:40, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * ...and the CPHC site is gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:24, May 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * The 2019 Pacific hurricane season has now officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  00:00, May 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Another AOI south of Mexico is at 0/20 rn. The EPac has been somewhat active lately.  Sandy 156   :)  00:29, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now at 10/40.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * The EPac is finally firing up for sure now. C'mon, become Gil! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:26, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/50 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:02, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Coming up to 20/50. Beatissima (talk) 02:28, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invested and now 30/40.  Sandy 156   :)  20:13, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:12, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E
Unexpectedly formed some hours ago, ATCF has it as a TS rn. Hopefully it doesn’t steal the name Gil, which will likely steal the name on the next advisory. Time for Gilicia.  Sandy 156   :)  19:23, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gil
40/1006 now, we have Gilicia. Ugh...another EPac name stealer and failicia.  Sandy 156   :)  20:37, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * I should call Gil Gilma’s brother because both of them failed.  Sandy 156   :)  20:41, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like we had another troll on the wiki...no worries, gone. Anyways, for the record, Dalila lasted as a 40 mph TS for 4 advisories and produced 0.49 ACE units, so if Gil doesn't manage to hold onto its current intensity for that long, it'll out-fail Dalila, and that's saying more than I can imagine...It has no chance to strengthen in the wake of Flossie's outflow and stable air setting in. I personally don't think this should've stolen Gil off the lists, but oh well...try again in 6 years. Ryan1000 22:03, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looking at the active storms header. Apparently the planet is having a tropical storm party. Beatissima (talk) 06:22, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gil
Dying out fast...Ryan1000 12:31, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil
Became post-tropical just recently. Gil outfailed Dalila by being weaker than 1 millibar and having a shorter lifespan. What a fail.  Sandy 156   :)  04:29, August 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dude, what an epic failure. Gilfail was such a disgrace and belongs in the Hall of Shame! A name was wasted for real this time, and it even outfailed Dalila also because it lasted a shorter amount of time. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:00, August 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Poor Gil. Everybody is beating up on him. Beatissima (talk) 19:04, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gil's fault for stealing a name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:48, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Again, a disturbance is currently situated south of Mexico and is currently 0/20.  Sandy 156   :)  01:03, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Might become Henriette as it moves out to sea. Ryan1000 12:34, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:05, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/60. Conditions are only "somewhat" conducive though according to the NHC. C'mon, become Henriette! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:24, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested, but down to 20/40.  Sandy 156   :)  23:32, August 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * At this rate, unless it significantly organizes now, it might be a bust. Only a few more days of favorable conditions remain. Chances seem to be in favor of the below system becoming "Henriette" instead, sorry to say. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:09, August 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/40. Still not expecting development from this system.  Sandy 156   :)  05:11, August 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest update has it at 40/40, but if it does develop, I don't expect more than a depression. Better not somehow steal "Henriette". ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:43, August 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30. ph  tracking  09:59, August 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 60/60.  Sandy 156   :)  00:44, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

The system has become more better defined with thunderstorm activity more concentrated near the center. Excerpt from the TWO: "If this recent development trend continues, then advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical storm later tonight while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico." Please not a name-stealer! If it did steal a name it could be worse than even Gil! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:04, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine-E
Alas Steve, it looks like it will come to pass. 35 mph/1006 mb as of latest advisory and it is forecast to become a weak, short-lived TS. It appears as if the mantra for this season is quantity over quality. Send Help Please (talk) 03:09, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Henriette
And it stole Henriette...sigh, another epic fail. Ryan1000 09:33, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, at least we've already had two Category 4s in Barbara and Erick... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:22, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Henriette's pressure is lower than Gil's by 1 mb. Heh. ~ KN2731 {talk} 16:09, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, another pathetic epic failure. Now tying Dalila's peak, only has really limited time if at all to become any stronger and surpass both Dalila and Gil. EPac needs to stop feeding us these failures and give us another amazing storm! At least we've already had Barbara and Erick though if that helps matters... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:25, August 12,2019 (UTC)
 * ok lmao MargeSimpson420 (talk) 19:44, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is pathetic, 3rd failicia for the EPac. At least its better and slightly stronger than Gil though. But still, the EPac needs to stop with those fails.  Sandy 156   :)  04:25, August 13, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette
R.I.P. epic fail. Try harder in 2025. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:23, August 13, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Several Hundred Miles SW of Baja
New on the 5-day outlook at 0/20. Geez, we could be up to Ivo before my birthday. Compare that to the Atlantic's activity (or lack thereof) so far. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:24, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0/40.  Sandy 156   :)  23:33, August 9, 2019 (UTC)


 * Increased to 0/50.  Sandy 156   :)  05:11, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invested and up to 20/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 16:07, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 30/60, but models on Tropical Tidbits don't seem to intensify it beyond TS. I hope Ivo won't be another epic failure... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:28, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 40/60. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:23, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 40/50, probably another bust or epic fail unfortunately. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:10, August 14, 2019 (UTC) UPDATE: it's 30/40, yeah it could bust... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:17, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20, shouldn't become anything significant at this point. What a bust. Ivo will most likely come from the southeast of Mexico 0/30 disturbance. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, should be gone soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:23, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0, just waiting for it to drop off. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, August 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * And now off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: S-SW of Manzanillo
Yet another one, this one at 20/30. Beatissima (talk) 15:24, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tidbits. I still think the above system (the 0/50 one) will be Henriette. I don't see these other ones doing as much, maybe weak failures/name stealers at the very most. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:13, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

5-day percentage decreased to 20%. Yeah, I don't expect this to do much. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:43, August 10, 2019 (UTC)


 * This AOI shouldn't have even been invested...anyways, it'll merge with 92E before it does anything, and 92E probably won't do anything either. Ryan1000 04:27, August 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  00:45, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Hawaii
An Akoni candidate. 0/20. Beatissima (talk) 13:43, August 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/30, hope we get Akoni from this disturbance.  Sandy 156   :)  00:46, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this is looking hopeful for Akoni by the later part of the week. Hopefully it does not bust! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:08, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately down to 0/20. Please don't bust.... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:24, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/20 now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:13, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
Invested and up to 20/20.  Sandy 156   :)  04:50, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back to 10/20. I would be a bit surprised if this became Akoni, it seems more likely to develop after moving into the WPac. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:26, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10, sad. It might not even become anything unless it develops in WPac. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:56, August 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:13, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Southeast of Mexico
On the 5-day outlook at 0/30. If Ivo doesn't come from 94E then this could very well be it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:13, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40 and forecast to cause heavy flooding in Central America. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Up to 30/70 and invested, expect Ivo to possibly come by next week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:10, August 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 40/80. The GFS model has it peak at a C4 hurricane and miss the Baja California Peninsula completely.  Sandy 156   :)  00:11, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80. Yeah I have a feeling this could be a major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:10, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 50/90 which means Ivo (or a TD) will almost certainly come in the next 5 days from this. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:33, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90! Expect Ivo soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  18:39, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90, might be a TD tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:15, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

90/90. Any time now, Ivo. Beatissima (talk) 23:57, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten-E
Now a TD. Expected to strengthen to a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:04, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ivo
And Ivo has arrived. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:38, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Closing in on hurricane status! Up to 65 mph and 996 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:21, August 22, 2019 (UTC)

Aww, latest satellite imagery shows that Ivo's convection slipped from the center quite a bit...no longer expected to become a hurricane. However, Ivo's remnants could bring rain to the American southwest later on. Ryan1000 11:48, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Ivo has disappointed me to be honest, I thought it would become at least a minimal hurricane. Hopefully it gives us some rain! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:03, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now down to 40 mph/1000 mbars. Actually I don't think we'll get anything because it's forecast to dissipate on Monday. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:07, August 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * This storm was such a fail. I expected a hurricane from this. Harveycane   (Talk |  Contributions)  03:49, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ivo
Back to a tropical depression, 30/1007, forecasted to dissipate soon. I was expecting and hoping a C3 from this since the day it was invested, but it didn’t and it underperformed.  Sandy 156   :)  16:59, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, a disappointment for sure. It should be post-tropical or remnants by the next advisory or two. Moisture associated with Ivo seems to be streaming into northern Baja and might possibly reach us, although it's highly unlikely we'll get anything more than a few clouds. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:35, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivo
Until next time, Ivo! Beatissima (talk) 21:34, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: 1000 Miles SW of Baja
An area of disturbed weather has appeared with a 10/10 chance of development. I don't expect much from this. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, August 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 20/30.  Sandy 156   :)  00:21, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested now per Tropical Tidbits, but down to 10/20. Beatissima (talk) 17:51, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * You got them mixed up actually, this one has moved west since my last post and is now 1300 miles WSW of Baja. This is the 20/20 one. Would be cool if they all developed and we're up to "Kiko" by the end of next week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:15, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nevermind, not going to develop. Down to 0%. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off from the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  04:57, August 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Baja
Another one at 20/20. Beatissima (talk) 17:49, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually this is the 10/20 one about 850 miles SSW of Baja. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:19, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oops. *blushes* Beatissima (talk) 00:45, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * It's ok, it's easy to mix things up when you got multiple AOIs going. Up to 20/40, Juliette anyone? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:35, August 18, 2019 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested and up to 30/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:08, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * This basin looks like it's grilling hot dogs on the TWO. Beatissima (talk) 02:41, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 40/60. I hope we can see Juliette (if 95E becomes Ivo) from this system.  Sandy 156   :)  04:58, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 60/80. Actually looks like a race to see who will get "Ivo" first, although I think it is likely 95E will be it. The loser gets "Juliette". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  18:40, August 19, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 20/40. Beatissima (talk) 23:58, August 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Conditions suddenly became less conducive. You are a bust 97E (unless a surprise can still come). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  01:55, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * It went down to 0/30, then 0/0, and now it's gone. Now that was a pathetic bust! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Entering the Central Pacific
Up on the NHC TWO with a 0/30 chance and expected to enter the CPac pretty soon. Hoping it's Akoni! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:22, August 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * In the CPac, down to 0/20 and will be weak if it becomes anything. They now basically say the upper-level environment will become less favorable by mid-week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10, looking very unlikely to become Akoni or even a TD. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:06, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * And now off the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  17:07, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * I don't know if this is really the same system, but it's (back?) on the CPHC's outlook with a 0% chance for 2 and 5 days. Environmental conditions will be unfavorable while it remains nearly stationary and then moves WNW and dissipates. CPHC, why even write it up if it won't develop at all?! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:44, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO again. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:48, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Southern Tip of Baja
0/20. Beatissima (talk) 22:47, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/30. Juliette anyone? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:05, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back down to 0/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:03, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * This one is very unlikely to form tbh. Harveycane   (Talk |  Contributions)  03:49, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off from the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  17:06, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * I guess it's a longer waiting game for Juliette than I thought... this has been a pathetic August for the EPac. Only a week of August left and no hurricanes have formed this month. Even 2010 had a hurricane (Frank) form in this month... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:39, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: 700 Miles SW of Hawaii
CPHC has this on the outlook but with 0% for 2 and 5 days. I don't expect this to become anything. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:00, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (90W.INVEST)
This is also currently in the CPac but it's really close to the International Dateline. Expected to cross later today. On the CPHC outlook at 0% for 2/5 days because it won't develop until it reaches the WPac. It has already been declared a JMA TD despite not crossing it yet. See the WPac forum for information about this system after it crosses the Dateline. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:00, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Baja California
An AOI popped up hundreds of miles southwest of Baja California, at 0/30 as of now.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 14:35, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. Looking likely to be Juliette. Geez, the EPac had a pathetic August - it's the first since 1973 (I think) to not have a hurricane form in this month. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:59, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.

East Pacific:
 * <font color="#FF5">Alvin : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#AF0">C - Began the EPac season unusually late - the latest ever recorded. Stayed out to sea and barely met the criteria for hurricane intensity.
 * <font color="#F85">Barbara : <font color="#95A">0.001%, <font color="#00F">A+ - An early season C4 that peaked just below C5 intensity. Amazing storm in general despite not reaching C5. Barely caused any impacts at all in Hawaii.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Very short-lived forgettable TS, but at least it reached 50 mph.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Four-E : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - Forgettable failure, at least no name was stolen.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dalila : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Weak, but lingered for a few days. At least it was better than Gil and Henriette below.
 * <font color="#F85">Erick : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#05F">A - Reached C4, but barely. Pretty amazing to track the strongest "Erick" on record. Didn't do jack sh!t to Hawaii.
 * <font color="#FF5">Flossie : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#AF0">C - Relatively long-lived despite peaking as a minimal hurricane. Passed near Hawaii as a dying storm but no damage or deaths. A bit of a disappointment though because it was initially thought to have a good chance at major status.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - Laughable failure #1 of early August. Lasted not even two days in total (15:00 UTC 8/3 to 3:00 UTC 8/5) and didn't even surpass 40 mph/1006 mb. What a disgrace.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Henriette : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - Laughable failure #2 of early August. Lasted even shorter than Gil, lol. And being just 1 mbar stronger doesn't help matters, it still peaked at only 40 mph.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F60">D- - Barely affected parts of Mexico causing absolutely no real negative effects whatsoever. At least it became a strong 65 mph tropical storm, which saves it from a failing grade, even though it was initially forecast to become a hurricane.

Central Pacific:
 * None yet.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#FF5">C1 , <font color="#FD5">C2 , <font color="#FB5">C3 , <font color="#F85">C4 , <font color="#F55">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#905">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% ; <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: 

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: 

Staying: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * N/A

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

None yet.

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: --



How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Sonia.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Priscilla or Raymond, or go further to Tico or Velma.
 * Wallis or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Octave or before is also unlikely.
 * In the Central Pacific, it is likely that Akoni will be used this year. For Ema and beyond, it is looking unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see at most 1 system this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. Any devastating system is most likely to occur in September or October.

East Pacific:
 * Chances that Juliette will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - I fully expect to see this by the end of August or, at the very latest, early September.
 * Chances that Kiko will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should form by early September.
 * Chances that Lorena will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - May arrive in early-mid September.
 * Chances that Mario will be used: <font color="#300">99.999% - I expect to see this in mid-late September.
 * Chances that Narda will be used: <font color="#300">99% - Will most likely be a late-September storm.
 * Chances that Octave will be used: <font color="#700">93% - I expect to see this in early October.
 * Chances that Priscilla will be used: <font color="#B00">80% - Highly likely to reach this name. Expect to see this in October.
 * Chances that Raymond will be used: <font color="#F30">69% - Also likely that we will reach this name, and might be a later October storm.
 * Chances that Sonia will be used: <font color="#F90">55% - Chances are still in favor for the season getting this far. Assuming it does form, it might be in November and might conclude the season.
 * Chances that Tico will be used: <font color="#9D0">40% - Chances decline below a coin toss at this point. If Tico does come, it should be a November or post-season surprise.
 * Chances that Velma will be used: <font color="#0A0">28% - Small chance of getting this far, although I wouldn't count on it.
 * Chances that Wallis will be used: <font color="#05A">13% - Very unlikely to get this far - activity doesn't seem like it will match last year.
 * Chances that Xina will be used: <font color="#00A">6% - 2018 got this far, but last year seemed more active and conducive than this year. I highly doubt we will get this far.
 * Chances that York will be used: <font color="#30A">2% - Surpassing last year? Nah, not happening.
 * Chances that Zelda will be used: <font color="#95A">0.1% - The chances reach almost zero at this point. We're not exhausting the list this year.
 * Chances that Anything beyond (Greeks?) will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - This year will not be anything exceptional. Surpassing 1992 is out of the cards.

Central Pacific: ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:16, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 04:27, August 26, 2019 (UTC))
 * Chances that Akoni will be used: <font color="#F00">72% - I'll give this slightly less than a 3/4 chance. Some years go by without any CPac formations, but some can also have one or even multiple formations, so we'll see what happens.
 * Chances that Ema will be used: <font color="#0A0">28% - Slight chance, but probably not this year.
 * Chances that Hone will be used: <font color="#00A">9% - I really doubt it.
 * Chances that Iona will be used: <font color="#60A">0.5% - A miracle CPac explosion shouldn't happen this year.
 * Chances that Keli or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - Nope!

Sandy's retirements and grades
Time to judge the EPac right now!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#80CCFF">PTC, <font color="#5EBAFF">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#F3E5AB">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Alvin : <font color="00CCFF">B- ,  0%  — The latest recorded start of the basin, Alvin managed to succeed NHC’s forecast and become a minimal hurricane before dying out.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Barbara : <font color="CD7F32">A++ , <font color="00CC00">0.01%  — A beautiful and amazing high-end Category 4 hurricane that had minimal impacts on Hawaii but otherwise, it’s very likely it’ll stay.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme :  E ,  0%  — A relatively short-lived storm that peaked at 50 mph, raising it to an E due to Dailia and Gil.


 * <font color="#5EBAFF">Four-E :  F ,  N/A  — Fail, but at least it wasn’t a name stealer.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Dailia :  F ,  0%  — A failure, but at least it lived longer and was stronger than Gil and Henriette.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Erick :  B ,  0%  — Barely held on to C4 for 12 hours but otherwise, it’s a great storm.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Flossie : <font color="3333CC">C- ,  0%  — Well underperformed its forecast for a C3, only peaking at an 80 mph C1 hurricane. It was long-lived however, so I’ll give her credit to that.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil :  Z ,  Fail%  — Gilma’s brother, that’s all I have to explain.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Henriette :  Z ,  Fail%  — Good job EPac, you produced another failicia! Barely stronger than Gil though.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo :  D- ,  0%  — I was expecting a C3 at the most for this system when it was an invest, but it underperformed miserably and never became a hurricane.

That’s it for now folks!

 Sandy 156   :)  23:46, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

(Updated as of 02:05, August 26, 2019 (UTC))

Harveycane's predictions and grades
Overview=

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#D4AF37">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Formation chance/retirement percentages:
 * <font color="#666">0% 
 * <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9%  (Nearly 0%)
 * <font color="#00FFFF">1-9%  (Extremely unlikely)
 * <font color="#00D5D5">10-19%  (Very unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A0A0">20-29%  (Unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A000">30-39%  (Somewhat unlikely)
 * <font color="#FFC800">40-49%  (Medium)
 * <font color="#FF8800">50-59%  (Somewhat likely)
 * <font color="#E80000">60-69%  (Likely)
 * <font color="#B40000">70-79%  (Very likely)
 * <font color="#800000">80-89%  (Extremely likely)
 * <font color="#000000">90-99%  (Nearly certain)
 * <font color="#000080">100%  (Certain)

Retirement predictions and grades=
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Alvin : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#FF0">C- - It took way too damn long to form. June 25 is almost a month and a half from the seasons beginning. However, at least it reached hurricane status.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Barbara : <font color="#AFFFFF">0.1%, <font color="#00F">A+ - Great storm! Became a high end C4 and looked good at satellite peak. This is what made me gain hope for the basin, until Gil and Henriette came. Only caused minimal damage, so its staying.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#F00">E - Short lived, crappy looking like the other fails in the season. However, it at least reached 50 mph.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Four-E : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Thank you for not wasting a name. However, you still were a fail.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dalila : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - A fail, but at least it didn't fail too bad unlike Gil and Henriette.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Erick : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#0CC">A - Great storm that just barely reached C4 status. It would have a higher grade if it were stronger though.
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Flossie : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#CF0">C - Reached hurricane status, but they forecasted a major once.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil : <font color="#666">Failippe%, <font color="#600">Z - Come back in 2025 when you're ready to redeem yourself.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Failiette : <font color="#666">Terrible%, <font color="#600">Z - You too, Henriette. You were just as bad as Gil.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo : <font color="#666">Noob%, <font color="#300">Z- - You had one job, and that was to be something promising, AT LEAST a hurricane or something. But no, you decided to fail. Please redeem yourself, all three of you, in 2025. By the way, after further thoughts, I decided to give it a Z- for being such a waste of a potentially good storm.

Overall season rating (tentative): <font color="#FC0">D+  - Unfortunately, the Eastern Pacific isn't doing so good as well. Yes, I am looking at these two pathetic failures. We could be on track to a below average season here. Future storm formation chances = Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):
 * <font color="#000">Juliette : <font color="#000080">100% - Definitely coming with us. Let's hope it's not a TS failure like the above three.

Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  03:47, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

East Pacific Hurricane:
''Like the Atlantic, this has also been an inactive year so far(per Accumulated Cyclone Energy). The El Niño has disappeared, and conditions have become neutral. Will this basin have any hope of seeing a strong fishspinner storm within these next few months? Yeah, I think it'll happen.''
 * Hurricane Alvin - Nice storm, won't be retired this year. (0%)
 * Hurricane Barbara - Strongest storm so far, won't be retired. (0%)
 * Hurricane Erick - Another fishspinner C4, it won't be retired. (0%)
 * Hurricane Flossie - Again, won't be retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Ivo - Almost became a hurricane. (0%)
 * Tropical Storms Cosme, Dalila, Gil, and Henriette - Failures, all failures. (0%)

Central Pacific Hurricane:
''No named storms have formed in the Central Pacific Basin as of August 2019. However, these two storms have crossed over into the basin:'' TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:42, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Erick - Formidable hurricane in the Central Pacific, but won't get retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Flossie - Became weak when it entered this basin. Did affect Hawaii, though. (0%)

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

 * Alvin - 0%
 * Barbara - 0%
 * Cosme - 0%
 * Four-E - N/A
 * Dalila - 0%
 * Erick - 0%
 * Flossie - 0%
 * Gil - 0%
 * Henriette - 0%
 * Ivo - 0%

Post-season Changes
Four-E's TCR has been released.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:24, August 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * That was fast...4-E's TCR was finished less than a month after it formed. But wasn't surprising, considering how short-lived and insignificant it was. Anyways, duration was cut a day short. Now do Cosme, Dalila, and Gil in that time frame, NHC. Ryan1000 09:33, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Cosme also out too.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

No changes to Cosme's intensity, but duration got cut 1 day short. Ryan1000 20:37, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Dalila is out, but was finished on the 9th, only two weeks after it dissipated. Fairly fast, and only the pressure was downed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 11:45, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Minor mistake, Dalila's wind speeds were actually upped 5 mph in its TCR.  Sandy 156   :)  06:59, August 25, 2019 (UTC)