Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future start
Coming in slightly more than one month :D.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Betting pools
Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC)

AOI.Central Atlantic
Tropical wave axis on the 45W meridian is 10/20 on the TWO.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:54, August 29, 2013 (UTC) YAWWWWWWWNNNN will this become gabby? Maybe. THIS IS PINKAMENA 23:13, August 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not forecast to develop as of now. If it does, it might not be until the Pacific. The Caribbean isn't as favorable as it otherwise should be. Ryan1000 23:59, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * No, I doubt this invest will become an Atlantic system. It is pretty much being sheared apart by wind shear, and from here on out, it does not really have a chance. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:46, August 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, unless conditions improve in the Caribbean, this one is done for. But it might emerge in the EPac in a week's time and become Kiko. :D Ryan1000 19:42, August 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nah, if this emerges into the Pacific and develops it'll be Lorena. There is already a 90% invest in the Pacific that will probably be Kiko. But if there is some freak occurrence in that the invest becomes a big 90% bust, this wave might be Kiko (unless it forms in the Caribbean). Or it might not even develop at all. We're not sure what will happen to this wave (yet) :P Steven09876 T 01:52, August 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * NHC says conditions could improve in the Western Caribbean in 4 or 5 days. By then we could see a storm, but if it becomes Gabrielle (or Humberto, if 96L becomes Gabrielle first), it probrably won't be more than a tropical storm given the limited time it has to develop. And about the Pacific AOI, wow, I didn't expect that thing to the southwest of Juliette to blow up so fast. It's 11-E right now, but even so, if it does become Kiko, it'll be an epic fail, lasting for only a day or two as a tropical storm before dying out at sea. Ryan1000 14:18, August 31, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm? Nahh, Humberto has no choice but to become a major. Most models point that out, and he is one of the frontrunners of the season in my book. Just my opinion lol. No matter what they tell us, no matter what they do, no matter what they teach us, what we believe is true. THIS IS PINKAMENA 14:23, August 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Eh, not quite Rara, what the models or NHC tell or show us will probably happen. The models don't see much with this one at all, even when it reaches the western Caribbean, it probrably won't get to be more than a TS. The folks over at the NHC have PhD's. We don't. They know what they're talking about, it's pretty hard for their forecasts to miss. There's always wishful thinking on something wanting to explode (and it might), but the guys at NHC usually know what they're talking about. Ryan1000 14:37, August 31, 2013 (UTC)

Well this means I don't want this to form then. I would like a good quality Humberto. THIS IS PINKAMENA 15:09, August 31, 2013 (UTC) For me, no cat 1+ humberto = finished. I expect this storm name to have uppity standards. THIS IS PINKAMENA 15:12, August 31, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, I kind of agree with you. The 'H' letter on this list is as cursed as the 'F' letter was until this year. Even though this invest is at near 0% for the next two days and 10% for the next five days, could improve in a few days time in the western Caribbean. And to expand on my first point, the 'H' names on this particular list are cursed. 1989's Hugo shredded the Lesser Antilles and South Carolina and peaked as the epic winning Category 5 storm. 1995's Humberto could not make up its mind in the middle of the Atlantic, but peaked as a Category 2 and got into a fight with Iris. 2001's Humberto surprised everyone by exploding into a Category 2 at a very high latitude. And then. 2007's Humberto swallowed a dozen shots of caffeine right off of Texas. Luckily, it was only a Category 1. Who knows what could have happened if it pulled an Ethel (1960)? Will the 'H's continue their streak this year? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:43, August 31, 2013 (UTC) I, PHOTO FINISH, HAVE ARRIVED. I WILL SEE AN IMPECCABLE CATEGORY 2+ HUMBERTO OR ELSE I, PHOTO FINISH, WILL BE OUTRAGED. I, PHOTO FINISH, WILL TELL HOITY TOITY AND DEMOTE YOU AS OUR TOP HURRICANE MODEL!!!! (Surely Humberto won't like that! He's meant to be the frontrunner! One of the supermodels of the season!!) THIS IS PINKAMENA  16:48, August 31, 2013 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
The NHC has now tagged this as 97L. It likely won't develop near the eastern Caribbean, but it's looking a bit better on the latest Sattelite Imagery. It won't become a TS (if it does), until it's in the Central/Western Caribbean. Ryan1000 16:58, August 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Oh and, for further convenience, here's some of the laterst model predictions for 97L. Odds are against it, but it definitely could develop. Ryan1000 17:19, August 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Base on the Airplane of the NHC that was checking near the wave upper level winds are not that unfavorable after all and it already has a close low so it just need convection and persistence,this might be Gabrielle or Humberto depending which one develop first but I believe both will develop.Allanjeffs 17:35, August 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this wave might develop after all. NOAA data shows this invest has gotten better organized, and its chances for formation are now at 10% for the next two days and 20% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:47, August 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * This might become something in the long run. I don't think this will develop during the next couple days, but it might be Gabrielle (or Humberto if the African wave develops) in about a week or so, once its in the western Caribbean. Steven09876 T 21:05, August 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this'll become Gabrielle. 96L has really been losing it's steam and is now down to 20%. This one is at 10%, but it's moving into an increasingly favorable environment, it wouldn't surprise me if it can get stronger than the models are anticipating. Ryan1000 00:39, September 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, Martinique must be having a pleasant morning! The elongated invest is closing in on them, and it has increased in organization. Despite somewhat unfavorable conditions for now, they will marginally increase over the next five days. It has a 20% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and a 30% chance in the next five days. The Lessers are having a nice little rain day right now! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:06, September 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * This will probably become Gabrielle in a few days. And the Lesser Antilles must be getting lots of rain from this thing right now. Steven09876 T 15:13, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

The invest is gaining steam! It has gotten better organized, and I expect a tropical depression in the next week. However, there is dry air attacking the system, but it should not stop its development or its effects on the Lesser Antilles. The chances of formation are now 40% for the next two days and 50% for the next five. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Unfortunately, this invest is running into a truckload of dry air. Its chances of formation remain the same, but development could now be inhibited by the unfavorable enviornment. Regardless, some rainfall is expected in the Lesser Antilles. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:44, September 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Lessers are getting some rainfall, but it's not going to develop until the Central/Western Caribbean. Ryan1000 00:59, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yikes, the invest is running into a truckload of dry air, and despite the favorable upper-level winds, it will not develop as rapidly. Its chances of formation for the next five days remain at 50%, but for the next two days, they have collapsed to 20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:17, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * The latest forecasts from some of the models take this thing right over Hispaniola; even if it does develop it might just be another re-Chantal or re-Emily and die without doing anything significant. Ryan1000 13:11, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope this doesn't develop. It's getting choked by dry air, and if it does develop, it'll only be a weak TS before crashing into Hispaniola. I'm seriously tired of all the weak TS storms. -.- When is the first hurricane coming Steven09876 T 16:26, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's still at 50% for the next 5 days, but it's broad, elongated nature and interaction with dry air is keeping it in check. It could get a little stronger once it moves over PR or the eastern DR, but I'm not expecting it to explode to a strong hurricane. Ryan1000 01:14, September 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * You came in a bad year Steven if you had come in 2010 or 2008 that were amazing years to track and I meant not for landfalls but there was variety of storms in intensity,this might be a 2005 Harvey that the wave develop after crashing over Hispañola.if the three invest right now develop it looks like we might break a record that was broke in 2011 anyone know which is right?XD or I might need to remind you.Allanjeffs 01:19, September 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * The chances of me ever beliveing an Atlantic hurricane season that started with nine storms not attaining hurricane intensity are the same as me hearing an Atlantic hurricane season produced three consecutive Category 5 hurricanes. I do not want this invest to develop. Six weak storms are beyond enough for me. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:27, September 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hate all the weaklings too, but if we don't get something soon, we'll be setting record-bust activity. 9 consecutive non-hurricanes? And possibly the latest date for the season's first hurricane, if we can't get one before the 11th? That's just weak. Really weak. Ryan1000 02:29, September 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * From a meteorological point of view it will be interesting,I am actually hoping that the record is broken this year.Allanjeffs 02:41, September 3, 2013 (UTC)

The fact we had a dead August and all these failures is remarkable enough, but the fact it's not El Niño makes it even more inexplicable. People still shouldn't let their guard down though, it's still not going to surprise me if we get a 15+ storm season. September has barely begun and we could be looking at 3 more storms, not to mention October is still a month away. Some of us (particularly Eric) thought last October would be dead due to an approaching El Niño, but the El Niño retreated unexpectedly and we got one of our worst Atlantic hurricanes ever at the end of the month, Hurricane Sandy. You never know if this year's October could pack a surprise like that too. The season is only starting to ramp up. Ryan1000 02:47, September 3, 2013 (UTC)

Starting not Ryan we are already in September and we haven`t had a hurricane We are approaching the peak and there is nothing to see here just three invests that might or might not develop in this ends with only 9 storms by September we might get another 2 in October but that will be below average for a season that was suppose to be hyperactive.Like you mention only one can make a season be remember but this season will be remember as the one that might had develop the storms near the MDR in July and June but nothing with the exception of Erin in August in the MDR this has been a disappoint in terms of quality and quantity but a good season to study.Allanjeffs 03:16, September 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I mean, most of the storms this year have been weaklings in intensity, but like I've said time and time again, you only need 1 bad storm in a season to make that entire season notable and memorable. Last year was a super-active season (tied the two previous years for 3rd most active year ever), but out of all of the 19 storms in the season, most of them were weak or remained at sea. However, when one managed to cause over 74 billion dollars in damage, it made the entire season unforgetable. While we might not get an active season at this point in time (I doubt we'll get to 19 storms like the past 3 years did), we definitely could still get a big, notable hurricane. This year's naming list has had a reputation of doing that sort of thing. 1983 had only 4 storms, but Alicia still became retired for it's damage in Texas. 1989 had only Hurricane Hugo be really notable; it was otherwise an average year. 1995 had Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne retired and tied 1887 and the past 3 years for 3rd place with 19 named storms. 2001 had no U.S. landfalling hurricanes, but still had 3 retired names (Allison, Iris, and Michelle). 2007 had Dean, Felix, and Noel retired, and 2013 could have a notable storm as well. There hasn't been a single time this naming list has been used since the official tropical cyclone naming lists begun in 1979 without featuring at least one retired name. I don't know if 2013 will break that curse, but it's not impossible it could with the way this year has gone. Ryan1000 09:42, September 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yawn. The Atlantic is being absolutely boring this year. So far, we had only 6 weaklings this year and no hurricanes, and its early September! When was the last time the Atlantic has been this pathetic? Seriously, if we don't get a hurricane until after the 11th, then we will have the latest first hurricane ever! Ryan, I'm starting to think that their will be no storms worthy of retirement this year, but a devastating mid-late September, October, or even a November hurricane isn't out of the question. I think we will end at 12-13 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, and 0-1 major hurricanes (a near-average season), unless we get a big explosion of activity. But even to match my predictions, the Atlantic needs to pick up the pace. I wish we can click a button like the one down below for the Atlantic to pick up the pace, but it won't work:


 * Click this button, to automatically make the Atlantic more active!


 * If the Atlantic doesn't pick up the pace by September 10, then I will just give up on the Atlantic. But still, with 3 active AOIs, we could still see a mini-explosion in activity, or even our first hurricane, before that day. Steven09876 T 00:13, September 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Make that two. 98L has died. And Andrew, there is nothing worthy of retirement just yet, but there also wasn't anything worthy at this time in 2000, yet Keith still caused lots of damage when it hit Central America in October and it became retired. There still could be a nasty late-season surprise in store for us. Don't give up on it just yet. Back to this invest, it's at 30% but it's expected to run over Hispaniola and then turn northeast out to sea (though, as Chantal and Emily showed us, Hispaniola tends to kill these storms off quite quickly). Ryan1000 00:39, September 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Usually Hispañola only kill ts or hurricanes as they have a core or center meanwhile invest don`t so it doesn`t harm them the way it do to ts,H or MH.Invests that have survive are like Harvey in 2005 that develop north of Hispañola after crashing in it.and Kyle in 2008 but that one was in PR though.I am neither happy nor sad of having a hurricane I just accepted if we are going to have one good if not then no.Allanjeffs 03:50, September 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * The models are still forecasting this to touch easternmost Hispaniola and turn northeast out to sea. Not sure if that will happen but if it doesn't turn farther north it'll run right into the island and turn due west over the western Caribbean or Cuba. Ryan1000 13:16, September 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Upgrade to td 7 I believe it will become a minimal hurricane near Bermuda.Allanjeffs 20:28, September 4, 2013 (UTC).

Tropical Depression Seven
Confirmed by NHC. About time. Ryan1000 20:58, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

September
Welcome to September in the Atlantic! I hope to see a mini explosion of activity this month. For the record, we are now the first Atlantic season since 2002 to pass this far into the year without a hurricane and the first La Niña season since 2001 to do so as well.

For September, I predict 5 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 76.

Individual storm predictions: Tropical Storm Gabrielle slams into Nicaragua, followed by a Category 3 Humberto making landfall over North Carolina as a major, and then a Category 1 Ingrid staying out over the Atlantic, as well as a failure Tropical Depression Ten, along with a Category 4 Jerry making landfall over the Bahamas and eastern Florida as a Category 1, and a Category 3 Karen hitting Louisiana as a tropical storm.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:10, September 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Eric's great adage is not to be forgotten (beware the first storm of September!!). Btw, 97L, if it develops, will count towards a first September storm. We'll keep both up for August for now, but if either of them develop it'll be part of September. Ryan1000 00:45, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Hey everyone! Here's what I'm thinking! For September, I'm going for 8 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 majors, with a total of 105 ACE. Here are my individual storm predictions! Nestor, Olga, Pablo and Rebekah in October, late season shocker Sebastian in November. WHATCHA THANK BRUVVAZ THIS IS PINKAMENA  01:32, September 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * HURRICANAE GABRIELLE (C2, September 3rd-9th) Caribbean and Florida landfall (97L)
 * HURRICANE HUMBERTO (C4, September 7th-17th) Landfall in Caribbean and entire Eastern USA and Atlantic Canada. Makes it all to Sweden as tropical storm. Costliest of the season.
 * HURRICANE INGRID (C2, September 8th-14th) Landfall in New Orleans.
 * TROPICAL STORM JERRY (TS, September 9th-12th) No landfall. Hi, Erin's boyfriend. Jerrin. LOL.
 * HURRICANE KAREN (C4, September 11th-24th) Landfall in Atlantic Canada. Strongest of season.
 * HURRICANE LORENZO (C4, September 16th-25th) Shy, sweet storm that makes no landfall.
 * HURRICANE MELISSA (C3, September 20th-29th) UK landfall as tropical storm.
 * TROPICAL STORM NESTOR (TS, September 31-October 3rd) No landfall. Erin's love triangle.

Liz, nice prediction. I hope the U.S. gets a major hurricane landfall, not because I want to see impacts, but just to end our major hurricane drought here. The only thing I would reconsider is Humberto's Sweden landfall. It would have to pull a Faith (1966) to make it that far, and Melissa would have to be like Debbie (1961) to hit the British Isles. I have no idea how much New Orleans can take anymore from tropical systems, after Katrina and Isaac. Atlantic Canada has been nailed by Juan and Igor, and I do not know if they can cope with another megastorm heading their way. I love Lorenzo. Truthfully, all Category 4s should do that, like Karl (2004) Danielle (2010). Also, Ryan, I want to point out Eric's famous adage has not been doing so well since 2008. 2009, 2010, and 2011 all had pathetic weak storms to begin September (Erika, Gaston, and the unnumbered storm), and 2012's first storm, Michael, did not do much either. P.S. Where is Eric? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:19, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

For September, I'm thinking 6 tropical depressions, 5 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane.

Individual storm predictions:


 * Hurricane Gabrielle, (C1, September 3rd-8th), Mexico, Cuba, U.S. Gulf Coast (97L)


 * Hurricane Humberto, (C2, September 9th-14th), No landfall


 * Hurricane Ingrid, (C2, September 13th-19th), Caribbean and U.S. Gulf Coast


 * Tropical Storm Jerry, (TS, September 18th-20th), No landfall


 * Hurricane Karen, (C4, September 24th-October 2nd), Cape Verde, Bermuda, Newfoundland


 * Tropical Depression Twelve, (TD, September 28th-29th), Mexico

In October I think we will see Lorenzo, Melissa, and Nestor, and in November the season will probably end with Olga. And I also wonder where Eric is... Steven09876 T 15:26, September 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Eric? Outer space! LOL JK. Great predictions. :D Pinkamena_ii.png THIS IS PINKAMENA Pinkamena.png 19:50, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

97L is not going into CA its going to move north of it.Its already to north to Affect CA maybe Mexico I believe it will move between CA and Cuba and then into the US.Allanjeffs 15:53, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Yikes! Read the NHC Atlantic August summary:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN IN AUGUST WAS BELOW AVERAGE...WITH ONLY TWO TROPICAL STORMS FORMING. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY...THREE OR FOUR NAMED STORMS FORM ON AVERAGE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN AUGUST...WITH ONE OR TWO BECOMING HURRICANES.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST WAS ABOUT 70 PERCENT BELOW THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.

Goodness, that shows how pathetic our August was. Even 2002 and 2001 had better Augusts than this. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 70% below average? Wow, that's the quietest August we had since nothing came at all in 1997. Ryan1000 00:59, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: SE of Cape Verde
A new tropical wave has exited the African coast. It's currently southeast of Cape Verde, but since it's so far south this one might have a chance at threatening the Caribbean in the long run. 97L still has the potential and it bears watching, but this one could be much worse. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 14:20, September 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, we could see something big out of this in the long run, if it enters favorable conditions. We need to watch this for potential future Gabrielle (or Humberto if the Lesser Antilles wave develops before this), and to see if it becomes the first hurricane  (hopefully) or threatens the U.S (hopefully not) . But still, BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER!!! We could see something devastating out of this! (well, hopefully not) Steven09876 T 16:35, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually, on closer inspection, the models take this heading northwest like 96L did and remaining out to sea. GFS makes it a powerful storm out to sea, but the Euro doesn't see it developing at all; they see a new storm coming off of Africa in 180 hours time, and even so, it'll follow the same direction as this, northwest away from any land areas and far out to sea. Ryan1000 16:57, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, looks like this is just going to be a regular Cape-Verde type hurricane and not causing much destruction. 1989 anyone? Steven09876 T 17:09, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * I wonder what name this little fella would get..... What will be what? (97L = Gabby, 98L = 'berto, BOC storm = Ingrid) OK? Agreed? Gabby = cat 2. Humberto = cat 4. Ingrid = cat 1. (off topic but if you play the game STARDOLL then please vote me MSW! I'm representing the UK on my account ToontownIsCool!) Pinkamena_ii.png THIS IS PINKAMENA Pinkamena.png 19:09, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
The AOI is on the TWO! It is moving away from Africa and into a region of favorable conditions. Currently, it has a 10% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next 120 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:58, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

Might be Gabrielle but it will be like Erin might become a weak hurricane,but a big burst of Sal has enter the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 20:58, September 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Or this could turn out to be like 96L and not develop at all. I'd prefer that, the fail train has gone on long enough. Ryan1000 21:42, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erin my eye -_- Pinkamena_ii.png THIS IS PINKAMENA Pinkamena.png 22:49, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * IF INGRID IS A RE ERIN THEN IM DEAD. LONG LIVE THE HURRICANES. Roses are red, violets are blue, hurricanes (that stay out to sea) are sweet, Erin is not. Pinkamena_ii.png THIS IS PINKAMENA Pinkamena.png 22:56, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Looks like that's a maximum of 8 possible POS storms in a row for now, instead of 9. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:52, September 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Really? Stop it with the inactivity Atlantic, you're getting on my nerves. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:19, September 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * (double edit conflict) Actually, that is good in some way. I do not want nine weak failures. Eight is beyond enough already. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:24, September 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow, what a fail. Ryan1000 00:39, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Belize
An area of thunderstorms in the Eastern Pacific has crossed over Central America. It apparently is in a hurry to develop. Six hours ago, this system did not even look obvious on the GTWO, but now, it has a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and a 30% chance in the next five days. Even though it is about to slam into Belize, once it emerges into the Bay of Campeche, who knows what will happen... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:58, September 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The BoC is always an unpredictable place for TC's, but I'm not sure if it will develop there. Then again, only Allan was calling for Fernand to come out of that earlier AOI and it nearly became a hurricane in the end. I'm not sure, but the Atlantic looks like it'll kick into gear right about now...though I hope this doesn't become another weakling TS. We'd tie 2011 if this and 98L become weakling tropical storms, first season ever to have 8 consecutive non-hurricanes from the start of the season. I'm getting bored of all of these weak storms. 97L has the potential to break the curse, and I hope it does. Ryan1000 21:42, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * This is more likely to be Gabby. I think 97L will be called "Humberto," our resident fashion-designing hurricane. Yes you heard that, hurricane. (lol) Pinkamena_ii.png THIS IS PINKAMENA Pinkamena.png 22:52, September 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The three of them if develop should not strength much,97L will probably develop if doesn`t make landfall in Hispañola as the majority of models are showing and if it does It should just be a ts.98L if its start moving north just a weak Hurricane or strong ts like Erin,and with 99L I am not sure because its need to cross the BOC to see if its going to intensify or not.Allanjeffs 00:14, September 3, 2013 (UTC)

Well, it has gotten a little better organized, and it now has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next two days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:18, September 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * I could see all 3 of these systems becoming Gabrielle, Humberto, and Ingrid, but I'm not sure what the order will be. I hope 97L develops first, but I wouldn't be surprised if this or 98L develop first either. Ryan1000 01:11, September 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * This might become Gabrielle in the Bay of Campeche, but if it does develop, it'll probably be yet another tropical storm. The Atlantic needs to produce a hurricane soon... <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:21, September 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * (Double edit conflict) Development is still possible for this AOI, but its chances of formation for the next five days are down to 20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:24, September 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Might still develop in the BoC. Ryan1000 00:39, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We have enough storms in this season to start this section (four), but nothing is worth retiring so far.

My predictions:

Andrea - 1% - It affected a variety of regions, but it is not going.

Barry - 0.5% - If Arlene (2011) was not retired for affecting the same regions as Barry did, it is not going as well.

Chantal - 0.1% - One death does not cut it in this case.

Dorian - 0.01% - Just for regenerating after everyone said it was done.

Erin - 0.05% - There was some rain in the Cape Verdes, but if Fran (1984) was not retired for affecting Cape Verde, neither will Erin.

Fernand - 0.8% -The flood threats from Fernand, along with eighteen fatalities, make Fernand the season's deadliest storm, but it is extremely doubtful it will go.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

STO12's Predictions


 * ANDREA: 20% Caused some impact to Florida and the southeast, but not significant enough for a retirement.
 * BARRY: 15% Torrential rains in Central America, but not enough impact to sustain a retirement.
 * CHANTAL: 5% Caused very little impact to the windward islands, no retirement for Chantal.
 * DORIAN: 5% No impact to land as a tropical storm. It's remnants and regenerated tropical depression status did more.
 * ERIN: 0% No impact to land.
 * FERNAND ? Predictions for Fernand will be released once the storm has dissipated.

<font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:02, August 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * But what about its remnants? Wouldn't the remains of Dorian have a possibility to cause at least some impact/damage? Jeffrey1998 (talk) 04:16, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, Dorian's remnants have a 10% chance of coming back. He still has a chance to do something. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * You honestly think Dorian is going to regenerate? I don't and it's at 0% right now, so I was correct. Dorian was a fail to me, its remnants didn't do anything big. -.- <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 23:11, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I said that two days ago, when it had a chance of regenerating. But now, he's dead. Dorian never did jack sh!t. Ryan1000 03:23, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Here's my predictions!

<font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 16:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 5% - Caused some impact to the southeast, but too little impact for retirement.
 * Barry - 1% - Affected Mexico, but it will not be retired.
 * Chantal - 0.1% - Caused very little impact.
 * Dorian - 0% - Fail, but surprised us by regenerating after everyone thought it was done.
 * Erin - -∞% - EPIC FAIL!
 * Fernand - 10% - I never expected it to be as bad as this. It killed 18 people. But still, since Mexico rarely retires names, I don't think it is going.

RyanK is here: That's all for now. Ryan1000 16:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 2% - Not much different from Alberto '06. Caused some flooding, but nothing severe.
 * Barry - 2% - Just like Bret '05. Some damage, some deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough.
 * Chantal - 1% - I was really hoping to see more from Chantal, but it fell flat on it's face in the open Caribbean...Still, tack a 1% on it for the death in the Dominican Republic.
 * Dorian - 0% - It tried, but failed.
 * Erin - 0% - What a disgrace.
 * Fernand - 8% - Worse than Barry, but still not retirement-worthy.

BONJOUR, CA VA?
 * Andrea = 5%. She did cause a bit of hype along the northeast but her impacts were not life-threatening, just too petty.
 * Barry = 1%. That name did give me the creeps when I first saw it on the list but he is nothing more than a candidate for 2019's hurricane list.
 * Chantal = 0%. That was absolutely dreadful.
 * Dorian = -∞%. What the bloody hell was that? 
 * Erin = -∞%. Just vomited.
 * Fernand= 5%. I just ate my free Nando's. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! Pinkie pie signature and infobox gif.gif

I thought I had done my already anyways.

Andrea:3% believe it or not she has been one of the most interesting so far but anyways just left some rains and three deaths. Retirement is out of the question.

Barry:2% Knowing Mexico for sure will not recommend this fail for retirement.They don`t even retire big hurricanes like Karl then this one is going to stay,I am pretty sure no ones remember a TS Barry in Mexico.

Chantal :1% Another system that sucumbs to the trade winds in the Ecab.Fail

Dorian: 1% and the parade of fail continues that 1% is just because he regenerate when the majority didn`t thought he will.

Erin:1%Did I really need to comment? It affect the Cape verde but if Fran in 1984 which I believe has been the most damaging and deadliest storm there which caused at least 32 deaths wasn`t retire then this one for sure will not for just rain.Allanjeffs 21:56, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

We don't have anything that stands a chance of retirement so far, but I'll put mine in anyway: --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:21, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea: 4% - Caused some hype along the US East Coast, but the impacts weren't all that much. Basically what Liz said.
 * Barry: 2% - It killed 3 people, but considering the fact that those deaths were in the ever-conservative Mexico, retirement isn't happening.
 * Chantal: 1% - 1 death in the Dominican Republic, and it was very blustery in Saint Lucia. Blown to pieces before it could do much else.
 * Dorian: 0% - It impressed us by regenerating after being dead for a week, but it had no impacts on land, so no.
 * Erin: 0% - A bit of rain in Cape Verde, and zilch after that.
 * Fernand: 10% - Barry Plus. I did not expect as many as 13 people to die from this thing (the 5 in Honduras were from the precursor wave, so I'm not sure if they count), but if Arlene '11 didn't go, then neither will Fernand.

Btw I discover that the Cape verdes are not a member in the group that represents the Atlantic basin that is why maybe Fran was not retire.I imagine that even if a storm affects Africa it will not be retire as they are not members of the same region.Allanjeffs 18:34, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Very interesting, Allan. This would also explain why Beryl '82 and Delta '05 were not retired. They both affected the Cape Verdes/Canaries to a considerable extent, too. (I don't care if Delta was a Greek letter name, it should have been retired!) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:11, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, maybe in the future if a hurricane causes enough damage somehwere in Africa or in southern Europe (1842 Spain Hurricane), maybe the WMO could consider those countries for the North Atlantic group in the future. Andrew, as far as I know, the WMO discussed the naming lists in detail after 2005. Had the unnamed Azores subtropical storm been discovered operationally everything would've been pushed back 1 name, Wilma would've been Alpha, and we would've ended at Eta. The WMO said if a greek-named hurricane causes enough damage to warrant retirement, the name will be retired, but instead of being replaced with any particular name, the next time a hurricane season reaches the greek alphabet, the retired greek name will be skipped and the next one will be used instead (I.E. Alpha,  Beta, Gamma, if Beta becomes retired). No greek names in 2005 were retired, though Beta could've gotten a lot stronger if it remained offshore Nicaragua longer. I doubt we'll see any hurricane season in the near future that will go as far down the list as 2005 did, but with the way this active cycle has gone, anything is possible. Ryan1000 02:34, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Gamma shouldn`t have been retire because damaga was not enough and if one of them should had been retire would have been 2005 as it was the deadliest of all the Greek letters.Allanjeffs 05:04, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * You mean Gamma? And look at this and tell me damage wasn't severe. 19 people died and Delta wrought $364 million in damage. Considering all the destruction was on the Canary Islands, that's pretty bad. I'm not sure if it would've been retired if the Canary Islands were part of the WMO group that represents the Atlantic basin, but still. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:36, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm don't think Spain is part of the WMO's list of countries in the North Atlantic, but if it is, or was, they sure would've retired Delta if they had the chance. The only disasters the Canary Islands see that are worse than rare storms like Delta are eruptions from the volcanoes on the islands (uncommon) or massive earthquakes/tsunamis from the Azores-Gibraltar Transform Fault that caused the great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 (extremely rare). But 19 deaths and 364 million in damage are definitely retirement-worthy numbers, especially for them. Ryan1000 15:23, August 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Thanks Dylan yes it was Gamma,and Spain is not part of the region only NAmer Central America and the Caribbean islands too.I believe Colombia may be but not remember I will ask my friend to give me the page again of the members,But the WMO can still ask for retirement if the country doesn`t ask that is the rule.I am not sure why they never ask for Gordon or Hanna though.Allanjeffs 21:18, August 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Gordon was not retired because Haiti, for some unknown (and possibly unexcusable) reason, did not send a delegate to the WMO retirement conference. I assume Hanna stayed for the same reason. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:26, August 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * In 1994 Haiti was suffering a civil war one of the worst of the country I imagine that is the prime reason as no one was interested in that kind of things in a period like that,Not sure with Hanna,and like I say if the country delegate don`t ask for retirement member of the WMO might.Allanjeffs 21:41, August 27, 2013 (UTC)

Well, even if Spain isn't part of the list of countries in the WMO, I bet that they could nominate a name if they so wished to. But the main areas are North America, Central America, the Caribbean, or, in the case of Fabian, Bermuda. If a big hurricane hits Spain/Portugal in the future I bet they could nominate it, but it's highly unlikely and they're in a pretty tight economic situation anyways. Asking for a hurricane name to be retired isn't likely something they would ask for. Ryan1000 22:25, August 27, 2013 (UTC)

Mid-season predictions
This is the time of the season when CSU and NOAA issue their mid-season forecasts for the remainder of the season. To concide with their recent predictions, I will release my personal mid-season predictions in this section. If anyone else would like to have a say in the activity for the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season, please feel free to post it here.

For the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I predict:

16 named storms (Pablo), 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 155.

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has had a very weak start. Although we have had four tropical storms, none of them have been strong or destructive. My previous prediction called for 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricane. However, this forecast assumed June and July would be hectic. In reality, these two months were pathetic. A good analouge for this season, in my opinion, would be 2003, 2007, or 2010. All three of these seasons had sluggish June-Augusts, but then imploded in September. 2013 is poised to do the same. Also, I think we could see a re-Isabel or re-Ivan this season. In addition, it should be noted both 2003 and 2007 had a power outage of strong storms. 2007 had plenty of storms (fifteen), but only one storm (Dean) lasted longer than a week. 2003 had three impressive major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel, and Kate), but was otherwise a dud season, minus Juan. I think 2013 will also be devoid of many strong system. This is why my forecast calls for a truckload of storms, but a disproportionate amount of hurricanes.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew 2013 has been extremely active.It already has 4 name storms.2010 have Danielle until August 21 so give it a chance.I believe we are going to get between 16 to 17 names storms 8 to 9 hurricanes and 4 to 5 majors.Allanjeffs 19:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think we'll get a very active season this year; my predictions in my blog could actually be lackluster, I wouldn't be surprised if we get an explosion of activity in late August and September and possibly even run the table this year. I'm predicting a total of 18-21 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Don't lose hope for this year just yet. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'll throw my hat in the ring and predict 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:00, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm thinking 11 named storms, 3 (or 4) hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. This is looking like a near-average to inactive season. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 02:29, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Steven, I think you are seriously underestimating the potential future activity for this season. The only reason we have not gone bonkers like 2005 or 2008 yet is because the SAL is keeping all these tropical waves in check. However, today, the SAL will depart the Atlantic for good, and from here on out, we could see a mega-explosion in activity. 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988, and 2001 had no hurricanes yet by this time in the season, yet all of them ended with at least five (1967 had six and 2001 had nine). 1961 had a record-dead August, but once September came, the Atlantic went nuts with five tropical storms, four of which (Betsy-Esther) ultimately became major hurricanes, and then had two major hurricanes form in October (Frances and Hattie). 1964 also went crazy after August (five major hurricanes formed after September 1!!!). The truth is, we actually have a long way to go, and now is not the time to write off the season. I now think 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes will be our final tally. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:52, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alright, I'm now thinking 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Looks like the Atlantic might explode in September after all. But still, this season will be nowhere near the activity of 2010, 2011, and 2012. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 03:13, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this season isn't over yet. The Saharan Air Layer is starting to die down and the MJO will peak over the next two weeks. SST's are still above-normal for the Atlantic, and conditions are ripe for an explosion of activity to occur from here until say, late October. The two AOIs (one in the Central Atlantic, the other over Africa) have unfavorable conditions for now, but they could move into more favorable conditions later on. The Atlantic is far from dead; if you ask me it's just sleeping for now. But when it wakes up, it'll take off. Ryan1000 13:33, August 29, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
This could've begun a little sooner, but Andrea's TCR was released on the 22nd, 8 days ago. Not much has changed, winds are still 65 mph (55 knots), and it caused around 25 million in insured losses and 1 direct death in NC, 3 indirect ones from traffic accidents. Anyone have opinions on what will happen post-season? I think there might have been a storm in the Atlantic in June earlier from what was 92L on June 6, if not a storm a brief depression. Ryan1000 19:40, August 30, 2013 (UTC)

I could see a slight change in damages for Barry, and a slight intensity upgrade for Fernand and Dorian's second life. And I doubt Invest 92L will be classified. I do not know whether or not it had a closed circulation. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Supposedly Ascat or oscat show a close circulation might be upgrade but it might not like 92L in 2010 which it wasn`t.Allanjeffs 00:56, September 2, 2013 (UTC)