Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season/Pre-Season-June

Aoi:GFS old/new storm #1
GFS and CMC have been insistent (both old and new versions of the GFS, it got upgraded today, the tested, old, and new (very high res and seems very ECMWF like)) on an EPAC TC forming around 20N from a cutoff low 36 hours from now. Unlike the Carribean phantom storms of last year, it's evolution is rapid and fairly brief. ECMWF also kinda shows it. With that said, they IMO are overdoing the convergence in the region. YE Pacific Hurricane  04:44, January 15, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:New GFS storm #1
0z GFS shows something by day 16. Something to watch, and IMO isn't too far fetched. Once the Pacific High gets here, the ITCZ positioning may not even matter. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:56, April 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * The GFS has sort of dropped this totally. But the same general ITCZ breakdown could still happen IMO in the next 2-3 weeks, and there are still hints in the ensembles and CFS. YE Pacific 

 

















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<font color="#66666"> Hurricane 23:40, April 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * EPAC looks quiet for the time being. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:26, May 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Season has officially begun, and the first TWO of the year has been released.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:38, May 15, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:8N130W
0/20. Don't think it'll do much though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:11, May 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/30. GFS merges it with the system below. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:16, May 21, 2015 (UTC)

90.E INVEST
40/70. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:14, May 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50/50. Looking good. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * 70/70, I think this or the below invest could become Andres. Ready to see Andres, everybody? This is going to be a wild and crazy season, I predict. But, both this and the below invest have only a limited opportunity for development, so if they do form, they could be a weak TS or even peak as a depression. It would be amazing though, if both this and the below invest became named! Such occurrence sounds a bit unlikely though, but I really do hope it happens, so we can see "Andres" and "Blanca" active at the same time and do a fantastic kickoff to the season! :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:00, May 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * 30/30. It's all this system's fault if and 91E's fault if we stop at York.

Aoi:8N12W
0/30. Currently an X. GFS brings this to near hurricane intensity. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:16, May 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:14, May 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * 60/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
50/50. On it's last legs. Thanks alot. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * 20/20. Best looking invest of all time seriously. Have no clue why it is a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:05, May 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * 10/10. Still out there lol. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:47, May 27, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS/ECMWF storm
Both the GFS and Euro are bullish on a Cat 1 hurricane moving north towards Socorro Island in the 10-12 day time frame. Really high on this, given the near certain agreement, though the NOGAPS/JMA are not on board quite yet. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:11, May 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/30. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/50. Andres, anyone? I think it might come out of this system, let's hope so!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:46, May 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/60. Latest GFS blows this into a 936mbar tropical cyclone. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:06, May 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * 10/70. This looks like a prime contender to be the first storm of the EPac season. It'll probably head out to sea like most storms at this time of year, but it could become a strong hurricane while doing so. Ryan1000 20:01, May 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * 18z GFS brings this to Baja. Decent chance it gives rain to the SW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:45, May 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * GFS brings it close to Baja a long ways out, but not actually making landfall there. If this actually makes landfall on Baja at the time GFS suggests, it would be the earliest storm on record to do so. I wouldn't rule out some possible surf or rainfall on parts of southern mexico, but the center of this will probably remain offshore. Ryan1000 23:21, May 25, 2015 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested. 60/90. ECMWF keeps this out to see, while GFS brings it near Baja. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:46, May 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's at 80/90. Highly likely to become a depression tomorrow, and could easily become Andres after that. Ryan1000 23:24, May 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * 90/90. Almost classifiable. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
And the 2015 Pacific hurricane season has officially begun! Forecast to become Andres later today, and could even become a hurricane after that. Ryan1000 12:17, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Andres
Now at 35kt. First named storm of the season and forecast for a 80kt peak. Kiewii 17:09, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * "Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)".-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:25, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Pretty nice start to the season, and we could also get something from the AOI behind it, but it's proximity to Andres will likely hold it back. As a side note, NOAA mentioned that the active Atlantic hurricane era that begun in 1995 might be drawing to a close by now, given the likelihood of a strong, long-lasting El Nino this year and the other two quiet Atlantic years we've had lately. Ryan1000 18:39, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * The below AOI could develop later on. Anyhow Andres is bombing out. The adv raised its wind to 50 knots, and an eye is starting to form. Could become a hurricane tonight. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:54, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70 mph, Andres should become a hurricane at any point now. Forecast peak raised to a 100 mph cat 2. If it strengthens fasst enough, it might even briefly become a major hurricane. Ryan1000 13:17, May 29, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Andres
There you go. No longer forecast to be a cat 2, but at least it's another May hurricane. Ryan1000 22:25, May 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Four years in a row. Could be in store for another major if all goes well. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:40, May 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Not bad, now at 105/970. A minimal major hurricane might not be out of the question after all. But Andres doesn't have much time left, it better hurry up if it wants to briefly crack 115. Ryan1000 17:55, May 30, 2015 (UTC)

110/966. Andres is only a hair away from being the season's first major... Ryan1000 02:52, May 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * All data supported a major at 0z. This is a very tricky case. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:44, May 31, 2015 (UTC)

Andres is weakening now, it looks like it missed it's chance at becoming a major. From here on out, we'll be saying good-bye to him. Ryan1000 18:17, May 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * Not trying to sound rude, but it's anything but weakening if you look at latest pics. Might be a borderline T5.5 case, which could result in an upgraded into a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:22, May 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks nice, though Andres is slowly traversing over cooler waters and dry air. I wouldn't completely rule out a rebound in intensity for Andres, but it better hurry up before conditions aren't favorable for restrengthening. However, if there's anything recent years (except for 2013) have taught us, it's that EPac storms are typically trickier to forecast intensity-wise than Atlantic storms. Ryan1000 19:53, May 31, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Andres
It somehow did it.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:45, May 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looks like I did speak too soon, this thing looks really nice and it could hang on for a while longer than I thought. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * WOAH! 140 mph and 943 mbars as of the latest advisory! Andres just exploded in the past 12 hours, I did not expect this to happen. Andres is one of only 5 major hurricanes to be recorded during May, and it's the farthest west of the five, reaching the intensity at 118.8 W. I did not expect this quick of an intensification from this. Since it's well away from any land, let's hope it manages to crack in some more intensity before weakening later on. :) Ryan1000 04:27, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * 140 knts is not out of the question. The eye just needs to warm. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:54, June 1, 2015 (UTC)

Peaked at 150/938 earlier today, but now it's powering down for good, 140/943 as of the latest advisory, but with the demise of Andres comes the life of Blanca. Ryan1000 20:12, June 1, 2015 (UTC)

I'm impressed  leeboy100 My Talk! 20:53, June 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now down to cat 3, 125 mph, but it'll be sticking around for a 3-4 more days before dying out. Ryan1000 23:47, June 1, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Andres (2nd time)
Now down to cat 2, 105 mph/969 mbars. It'll be around for two more days or so before dying out. Ryan1000 12:33, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Down further to 80kt. Did look quite nice at its peak I must say! Kiewii 14:51, June 2, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Andres (2nd time)
70/990. It's got another day or so before it'll be gone. Ryan1000 12:46, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Winds are down to 45 kts, but with a curiously low pressure of 990 mbar... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:49, June 4, 2015 (UTC) still resisting to dissipate. really eroded by the shear/dry air combo <font face="Comic Sans MS"> totally destructive  | request tracks to me! •  edits...  •  ✉mailbox c:✉ 03:55, June 4, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andres
Adios, Andres...until 2021. Ryan1000 02:24, June 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Woah, this was really impressive. A Cat. 4 very early. I haven't been really tracking these systems because my hurricane interest is at an all time low but I'd still like to see what this season has in store. Looks like we're seeing an epic season this year hopefully! With 2 C4's starting off, this season is one to look forward to. Shame none of the 2 hurricanes reached C5. :( BTW, Odile, looks like you ripped off my signature... I'll still let you use it though but would you mind making it less identical? Thanks! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 04:30, June 8, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS/ECMWF Mexico hurricane #2
12z GFS doesn't, but 6z and 0z GFS blew this up into a landfalling Mexico hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Gone from GFS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * ECMWF develops a storm near 92E in several days but I don't buy it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:46, May 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

0/50. GFS makes this a 937 mbar hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:17, May 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * 20/80. Proximity to Andres is currently keeping this low in check, but once Andres moves out of the way in 3-4 days, this should become Blanca with no troube at all. Ryan1000 17:55, May 30, 2015 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invest'd. Ryan1000 02:52, May 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * 70/90, almost a depression.... Ryan1000 18:17, May 31, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
"Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to indicate the formation of Tropical Depression Two-E."-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:37, May 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * The track on this thing is really erratic, it shows 2-E performing a counter-clockwise loop while becoming a hurricane, then passing over its own wake and weakening, then becoming a hurricane again. I think it's second spell as a hurricane will be far more noteworthy, it could even become a major by that time like Andres just did. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Blanca
Now upgraded to TS, named Blanca. Wow what an early start, I must say. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:17, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres paving the way for Blanca.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:37, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * The track no longer shows a loop from this, but it's still likely to become another strong major hurricane once Andres is fully out of the way. Ryan1000 20:12, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hot tower...here we go...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:43, June 2, 2015 (UTC)

This thing looks really nice. Forecast intensity upped to cat 4 at least, and Blanca could also hit west-central Baja in the long run. If it does that, it would be the earliest hurricane on record to do so. Ryan1000 12:33, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * SHIPS rapid intensification index, as noted by Blake, have become maxed out for Blanca. I have no words for that.  Jake52 (talk) 13:53, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Up to 60kt, should be a hurricane shortly Kiewii 14:51, June 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * This thing looks downright amazing for a TS. Blanca already has a forecast peak at 140 mph, and it might even become a cat 5 if all goes well, which would put it on par with Ava of 1973 as the earliest in EPac history and only 3rd in June. This is unbelievable. On top of that, the track has shifted more towards southern Baja lately... Ryan1000 18:28, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Am I the only one who doesn't like the looks of this? I mean we may have a cat.5 in June (the third on record) which would be cool..........
 * However, consider the fact Baja was hit by Odile only 9 months ago and this could hit as a major hurricane.
 * Never mind, I misread the forecast, this is predicted to hit Baja only as a category 1, but still, I'm pretty sure there are areas still recovering form Odile.....  leeboy100 My Talk! 19:41, June 2, 2015 (UTC) (edited)

Hurricane Blanca
Here we are. Forecast intensity downed to a TS when it reaches the Cabo-area of southern Baja, but it could be stronger if it EI's enough. Conditions are almost perfect. Ryan1000 22:30, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * And Blanca has now surpassed Andres in power. 85/980 as of the latest advisory, while Andres is at 80/983 and going down. Ryan1000 03:19, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * What I don't get is how Blanca is supposed to explode to a major while basically stalling in the same area for the next day or so... wouldn't upwelling put the brakes on intensification sooner or later? Or is the water so deep and warm that upwelling shouldn't be much of an issue? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:02, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * The latter. Read the NHC's latest forecast discussion, there is a lot of deep warm water where Blanca is and it will intensify rather quickly over the next 24 hours, to at least cat 4 strength. For some reason, the GFDL and HWRF only keep it a cat 1 as it gradually heads north towards Baja, but the other models make this very strong, then weakening as it heads towards the peninsula. Baja California has never seen a hurricane or TS landfall in June before; like I mentioned earlier, if Blanca manages to hold on by the time it reaches the peninsula, it would be the earliest storm on record to ever strike the area. Ryan1000 04:17, June 3, 2015 (UTC)

Blanca is intensifying very fast, it's already a 110 mph category 2 hurricane, and if I'm not mistaken I see a PINHOLE EYE on sattelite imagery. I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a very strong category 4 hurricane, and given that Blanca still has about two days before it'll encounter unfavorable conditions, it could easily become a category 5 hurricane, which would break Ava's record as the earliest in EPac history. Ryan1000 12:46, June 3, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Blanca
ATCF brings this 115 knots. As expected, this thing exploded overnight. Constrains allow 7.0/140 knots by tonight. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:06, June 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * If NHC follows suit, that would be a 70 knot increase in wind speed over a period of just 30 hours. That's absolutely incredible. Ryan1000 13:48, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Forecasted to reach 160 mph.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  14:48, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Anyone else think there's a decent chance Blanca will beat Ava as the strongest June EPAC hurricane? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:52, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Wouldn't surprise me Dylan, NHC has now confirmed Blanca is down to 948 mbars in pressure and winds are 130 mph, making it a category 4 hurricane, skipping category 3. Forecast peak intensity officially raised to cat 5. Not only is Blanca the earliest second hurricane for any EPac season on record, but it's now also the earliest 2nd major hurricane of any EPac season on record, well ahead of last year's Cristina. Ryan1000 15:03, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's been kinda expected to reach Cat 5 from the getgo. ATCF has it to 120, but could see it going to 125 if ADT climbs. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:57, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks like Blanca's rate of intensification is slowing down some... I'll revert to my earlier skepticism about this thing reaching Category 5 strength, but then again, Andres stalled its intensification for a bit while it was a 2, only to explode into a strong 4. We'll see what happens, but my gut instinct is that I might have been right about Blanca's EI eventually being capped by upwelling (and yes Ryan, I did read that discussion; something about it just seemed off to me, which is to say that I found it implausible that a TC could sit in one place and continually explode without feeling the effects of upwelling). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:37, June 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * 130 MPH and 948 millibars. Ladies and gentleman, that is a classic example of explosive intensification right there.
 * It even has a chance of being a category 5  leeboy100 My Talk! 19:52, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * The SST's under Blanca are actually still pretty warm Dylan, the reason for it's sudden halt of intensification appears to be an eyewall replacement cycle, but once that's out of the way by tomorrow, it should continue strengthening, possibly to the cat 5 that NHC still currently forecasts. That, and it's going to be moving out of it's own wake by then, so upwelling won't be an issue with intensification. Ryan1000 20:21, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Microwave did not show any ERC. While upwelling may be occurring, the the sub-surface is very warm, so it shouldn't affect it too much. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:11, June 3, 2015 (UTC)

Intensification is continuing now, Blanca is up to 140 mph and 943 mbars. Likely to be a 5 by tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:50, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Cloud tops are warming, and the eye is cooling. Either due to an ERC or upwelling. Both issues appear temporary. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:51, June 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Updated ATCF steadies Blanca's winds at 120 kts and lowers its pressure slightly to 943 mbar (it was at 945 at the time of the last advisory). I'm still convinced that upwelling is Blanca's primary foe; it's the only reason I can think of to explain today's warming of Blanca's convection, though the west side has eroded slightly due to somewhat drier air. My guess is that if Blanca is going to become a Category 5, then it needs to start moving very soon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:58, June 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Check this out... if Blanca doesn't move soon then it may have waters as cold as 15C or lower to contend with. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:43, June 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Latest NHC advisory package just got released. NHC is still holding on to hope that Blanca will intensify a bit more, but they've given up on a Category 5 for now. Latest forecast calls for a 135-kt peak, just below the threshold. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:46, June 4, 2015 (UTC)

has an shrinking eye. no longer an C5 in the forecast. possibly because of upwelling. <font face="Comic Sans MS"> totally destructive  | request tracks to me! • edits... • ✉mailbox c:✉ 03:52, June 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Down to a Category 3. From the latest discussion: "The small eye of Blanca has become less distinct in infrared satellite images since yesterday afternoon. Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers have subsequently decreased from their peak, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt. It is not clear whether the slight decrease in wind speed is a result of an eyewall replacement cycle, drier air wrapping into the circulation, or upwelling of cooler waters beneath the nearly stationary hurricane." Pressure up to 950 mbar as well. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:20, June 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Down to 100 knots. Appears to be finishing the ERC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:08, June 4, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Blanca (2nd time)
Blanca appears to have missed her chance for glory. Now down to 110 mph and 960 mbars. It might become a major again, but this time it won't get past cat 3. Ryan1000 17:13, June 4, 2015 (UTC)

Well, at least she tried to be a 5. Sorry Blanca. leeboy100 My Talk! 19:43, June 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * No matter which way you slice it, opening an EPAC season with two Category 4 hurricanes is damn impressive, especially if those two storms formed at the end of May. Carlos, when he comes around, has a lot to live up to. :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:24, June 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * This storm is re-exploding. ATCF looks 95 knots, but SAB/TAFB are 6.0/115 knots, and ADT is 7.2/147 knots. WPAC-esque cloud top temperatures. Holy shit. This is why you never write the EPAC off. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  07:14, June 6, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Blanca (2nd time)
NHC's latest advisory pins this at 120 mph and 952 mbars. However, it doesn't have much time left to intensify, as it is slowly moving over unfavorable conditions and it should begin weakening later today or tomorrow. Best-case scenario, it'll get a secondary peak of where it started, at 140 mph. Ryan1000 12:12, June 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Has returned to Cat 4 status. Recon coming. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:08, June 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * It probably won't get past this, by tonight or tomorrow morning it'll be weakening. Contrary to what was forecast before, Blanca will probably parallel Baja's west coast instead of make landfall there, if it does reach a landfall it'll probably be a weakening depression. Ryan1000 18:48, June 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * I think the NHC is to far west, but I haven't seen enough eastward shifts as I thought it would. Regardless, hurricane watches are still out. We're looking at a TS landfall in Puerto San Carlos. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:07, June 6, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Blanca (3rd time)
Back down to a category 1 winds of 90 MPH, pressure is 974 millibars  leeboy100 My Talk! 19:17, June 7, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Blanca (2nd time)
70 mph/980 mbars. It might not make it to Baja, or only as a depression, since it's starting to lose its organization. Ryan1000 22:42, June 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * Can't believe we're up to Blanca, I haven't really been tracking systems lately because I'm not that interested in hurricanes anymore. Anyway, let's congratulate this for almost getting to C5. Wish it would've become one though... but hey, a couple C4's to kick off this season! How awesome! :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 04:33, June 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't know how you can be not interested with all this EPAC activity. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:38, June 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks like Blanca did make it to Baja, but only with 45 mph winds. Should die out later today or tomorrow. Also, it's the earliest tropical cyclone to make landfall in Baja in recorded history. Ryan1000 12:02, June 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * YE, it's because I lost most of my interest over the winter and spring, and now I'm barely that interested in hurricanes. However, these systems happening here in EPac could increase my interest slightly, so if you think I might leave this wiki, it might not be until after the NHem seasons are over again, in November-ish. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:52, June 9, 2015 (UTC)

aaand I'm getting the full system. currently it's really cloudy. (and humid too) could get some well-needed rain. <font face="Lucida Console"> totally destructive  | request tracks to me! • • ✉mailbox c:✉ 03:30, June 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * I think we are in a golden age of tropical cyclones right now, with ACE at global records YTD. EPAC is in the middle of a magical season, while the WPAC is still the WPAC, and will explode like it does in super Nino seasons. Anyhow, Blanca has moved onshore now and is down to a TD. Earlier it made its first landfall near San Carlos before weakening to a TD as it moved offshore near Guerrero Negro and stuck as a TD near El Rosario. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:41, June 9, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Blanca
Seems like nobody noticed, but Blanca died yesterday morning. Hats off. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:52, June 10, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:NOGAPS/GDL storm
NOGAPS and GFDL, not the best of models, both show a tropical cyclone SW of 92E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
The EPac is really going to be rocking and rolling this year due to the strong El Nino we're in, this is going to be the next storm we'll be tracking. It's at 0% for two days, but it's at 30% for 5, and could easily be Carlos once Blanca is gone. Expected to slowly move towards southern Mexico or Central America by then. Ryan1000 18:55, June 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * This has been in the GFS for ages, I've never for some reason added this AOI. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:06, June 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's been at 10/60 for some time, once Blanca is fully gone, this should become Carlos as it slowly creeps towards southern Mexico. Ryan1000 22:42, June 7, 2015 (UTC)

I'm expecting a category 5 from this.

YES.

PS: Blanca has disappointed me. :(

Cheers, -- Puffle  Let's party HARD!  01:21, June 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this looks like it has some huge potential for a powerful Carlos. Become a C5, AOI! This needs to happen! :D Woah, this season's super impressive so far, I think my interest in hurricanes might spike up a little again if this storm gets strong. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 04:37, June 8, 2015 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invest'd and up to 30/80. Probably will become Carlos in two or three days. Ryan1000 12:04, June 8, 2015 (UTC)

Reeeeeealy hyped in this one. Cheers, -- Puffle  Let's party HARD!  14:22, June 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * 50/90, Carlos is coming... Ryan1000 19:11, June 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hoping for another powerful one! :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:53, June 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * 60/90. Looks terrible though. Model war going on. 0z and 12z GFS along with the GFDL bring this near MX by Day 4. ECMWF and HWRF and CMC and BANM keep this offshore for around 5 days, and weaken it after that time, due to either land interaction, upwelling, or shear. However, 0z GFS is alling with the ECMWF. The reason for this appears to be difference in trough angle, along with a weaker and more westerly ridge off Baja California Sur, and a weaker trough off in the four corners. In the SE EPAC, we see the opposite typically, where the ECMWF is the bad model. As for intensity, there is good agreement on at least a hurricane. The HWRF, GFS, and GFDL blow this up into a hurricane. However, the models appear to be slightly overdoing this, because wind shear is forecast to increase quite a bit in a couple days, before relaxing again by day 4, where pending on track could occur a bit sooner. SHIPS and LGEM also make this a Cat 2, even thoiugh the SHIPS appears to have a better grip on the shear. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:34, June 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Still 60/90. Models have shifted west, and more in line with the ECMWF. HWRF and GFS still bring this onshore in a few days, however, the ensembles have shifted way west of the 18z run. Setup reminds me of Carlotta 12 at first, but now I really think this will stay at sea. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:00, June 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-E
we have depression. track to affect the states of Oaxaca-Guerrero-Michoacan as an hurricane <font face="Lucida Console"> totally destructive  | request tracks to me! • • ✉mailbox c:✉ 20:51, June 10, 2015 (UTC) Gawsh, I want a C5! Cheers, -- Puffle  Let's party HARD!  21:08, June 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Puffle, I would want one too, but look, this system's heading on a path that would take it straight close to the Mexican coast in a few days. The forecast track skirts it right near the coast, which is why rooting like this is a bit dangerous to do, because if it gets to C5, the Mexican coast could be devastated by tsunamis and really heavy, powerful, and unimaginably windy rainbands. Anyways, I'm glad we're almost about to get Carlos, and we're still so soon into the season! This tells me the season may be really hyperactive and exciting this summer, and have some really fun to track systems! I think I might be regaining some interest in these storms, because honestly, if the EPac is going to spit out a lot of such awesome storms this summer... --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:59, June 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm fairly certain that even the strongest hurricanes do not cause tsunamis... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:26, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Correct. Tsunamis are made by earthquakes. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:28, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Whoops, I meant large storm surges, not tsunamis. Sorry! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:16, June 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * There's a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast with this thing, depending on how much it interacts with land and how long conditions will be favorable for it to strengthen. If it remains offshore long enough, we could be looking at our third major, and even 3rd cat 4, in a row from this. Ryan1000 22:03, June 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * You guys need to grow up. This is likely to affect land. Save your RI rooting for the long tracker fishes, but with land, there is no under any circumstances, screwing around. This forecast is extremely complicated, and it's intensity is likely to be determined by track. A big shift west as I sorta expected was noted in the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS runs. Futhemore, the overall spread in the track guidance has increased. As such, I see five different options. 1st option: HWRF/GFDL: Moves right N or NNE into Oaxaca. 2nd option: Something like Calvin 93, into Guerrero, before entering the GOC. 3rd option: Keeps it offshore (Alma 96ish) and weakens due to high terrain. 4th option: ECMWF, offshore before entering the GOC. 5th option: Andres 09 redux, where it stays offshore and falls apart. As for intensity, I see this only becoming a hurricane if option 1 or 2 happen, but Carlos could be stronger if otherwise, and if the core of this hurricane stays far enough offshore, a major is not out of the question, and in fact, quite probable. However, moderate wind shear in the short term and upwelling in the long term could also limit intensification. On the other hand, so far the storm has good outflow channels, especially to the southwest and east-northeast, so it's structure enables quite a bit of intensification. Reminds me of Cristina actually. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:10, June 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * The initial track forecast of this kinda reminds me of the track Bridget '71 or Calvin '93 took, but I don't think it'll reach the same intensity and it might remain just offshore, if it doesn't briefly make landfall or parallel Acapulco as a hurricane. Sattelite imagery of this looks really nice atm, but there is some shear in it's way and I doubt it'll explode in the short-term. But if this misses Mexico far enough to the south, it might become a strong major hurricane by then, but it won't affect land that much if it does so, other than some rain showers and surf to the southern coastline. Ryan1000 00:03, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looking at its outflow channels and how it has four of them (one per quadrant) already, SHIPS is probs overdoing shear. Don't be surprised at RI. This may make a run at a major if the track does not shift east. However, it's slow motion could cause some upwelling of it's own, and if the track shifts quite a bit west, it could move over the upwelling area from Blanca (which is warming, but could be problematic since if it came near it since it would mess up its instability). That's a huge if. Later down the line, this could move near the second upwell region by Blanca near Baja, but that pool is smaller, and should be recovered when 03E gets there late next week. As for track, I was thinking a Calvin 93 earlier but now learning more towards a hybrid of Calvin 93/Beatriz 11/Alma 96. Right now, I'd forecast a Cat 2/3. As for it's current intensity, SAB is 2.0/30 knots. TAFB was set at 3.0/45 knots, but was forced down to 2.5/35 knots due to constraints. I'd consider upgrading, but the ATCF disagrees, which is semi-understandable. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:51, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Perhaps, EPac storms have typically been tougher to forecast intensity-wise than elsewhere. That has certainly been the case with many storms over the past few years, Andres most recently. 3-E already appears to be taking on the looks of a hurricane, but the winds aren't responding. They will soon enough though, I'd be surprised if it's not Carlos later today. Like you mentioned, where this thing goes will be determined by how strong it becomes. Ryan1000 03:03, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I feel like EPAC storms are becoming more complicated to forecast. With that said, I still favor a more westerly track, because that's where models are trending. Structure-wise, though I'm impressed, and honestly resembles Cristina and Marie in structure. There's a slight chance we end up with a Category 4 or 5. hurricane IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:10, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * The thought of starting off any TC season with 3 consecutive Category 4s messes me up. It would be amazing if Carlos could pull that off. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:26, June 11, 2015 (UTC)

and since it's over 29C waters I could expect RI or an EI phase <font face="Lucida Console"> totally destructive  | request tracks to me! 03:19, June 11, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Carlos
At last! 35 kts/1001 mbar. Forecast to reach 75 kts by the end of the forecast period. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:44, June 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Carlos's formation marks the 3rd earliest date for an EPac season to reach it's 3rd named storm, after the 3rd storm of 1956 and Cristina in 1990, both of which did so two days prior on June 9th. That's pretty neat, and if Carlos manages to RI into a (major) hurricane while remaining offshore, it'll be the earliest 3rd major hurricane, let alone the earliest third hurricane, of any EPac season on record. Ryan1000 19:14, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Agatha 92 (3rd storm) also did so on June 1 IIRC. ATCF has this at 45, but ASCAT showed 42 knt winds, ADT is at 3.2/49 knts, SAB is at 3.5/55 knts, while TAFB is 3.0/45 knts. I'd go 0 knts. Forecast-wise, models have come into agreement that this will remain well offshore. However, despite it's good structure, northeasterly shear is affecting it, so intensification could be capped a bit. Shear will likely relax in a day or so, however, which could result in rapid intensification, as conditions will become almost perfect. Weakening could occur after day 4 due to dry air, but it should be able to mix it out if the system has a nice inner core. SST's should start declining in around 6-7 days, when it is near the Baja Peninsula, and that is if the storm moves left of my expectation. If not, the system could make landfall on Baja without reaching cold water. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:43, June 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well, the EPAC has certainly gotten off to an extreme start. I certainly did not expect Category 4 intensity from Andres, and Blanca came together much faster than I envisioned. As for Carlos, it appears very organized on satellite imagery; it's as if it's already a weak hurricane. For me, I don't know what to expect intensitywise. Since the NHC states shear will continue to hamper with Carlos, it won't surprise me if Category 2 is the furthest the storm reaches, also given its proximity to Mexico. On a side note, if Carlos becomes a hurricane like the NHC expects, it will be only the fourth time since the start of the EPAC satellite era in 1971 the first three named storms of a season became hurricanes (after 1971, 1995, and 2011). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:23, June 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * A recent ASCAT pass shows Carlos has intensified; scatterometer data indicates that it has reached winds of 45 knots (50 mph) with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). Convection is still limited to Carlos's western and southern quadrants, but a burst of convection in its southwestern quadrant suggest the storm's cloud tops may start cooling soon. Nevertheless, shear should prevent any RI for at least another couple of days (BTW, the NHC has raised Carlos's forecast peak winds to 90 knots (105 mph)). Motionwise, Carlos should continue moving in its steering pattern for roughly 48 more hours before a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico forces it parallel to the Mexican coast. Individuals in Mexico should be prepared for surf and rain conditions, despite Carlos only being a moderate TS. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:01, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I wanna distort that idea that there's a lot of shear of this system. SHIPS has it at 10-15 knts, and relaxing tomorrow, before increasing again on Saturday, before going down to near zero early next week. Dry air off the continent could delay the development of a core, but aside from that, some possible long-term dry air (it should have a core by then) and moderate shear mentioned above, this is over 30C SST's for 5 days, and 26C+ waters till landfall. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:18, June 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, maybe Carlos isn't being hindered that much. Deep convection has developed near its center, and winds have been upped to 50 knots (60 mph) with a pressure of 997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg), slightly below TAFB and SAB estimates. The NHC discussion continues to state shear and then cooler waters will result in only gradual intensification from Carlos in the next several days, but I still think it has a decent chance at being a major. The storm should continue moving WNW for another couple of days before the aforementioned ridge forces it more northwesterly. On a side note, due to the looming threat of gale-force winds, Mexico has issued a TS watch for the Pacific coastline from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:53, June 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * What cool waters? SST's are near 30C along its path for 5 days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:02, June 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Sorry YE, NHC was referring to EPac proper only. But if you include Ekeka and Hali, seeing as the CPac for all intents and purposes is not it's own basin, then Carlos would indeed be 4th earliest. Anyways, conditions ahead of Carlos are hindering significant strengthening at the moment, but after 3-4 days conditions should be favorable for it to become posibly the season's third major, though I'd be surprised if Carlos turns north to hit Baja at that time, like GFS is currently suggesting. Ryan1000 04:57, June 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Didn't Cristina form around June 9 last year? As for Baja, I think they could get a hurricane landfall if everything goes right. SST's in the GOC (north of Jalisco) are 26-30C and well above normal. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:40, June 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * It formed then but wasn't named until later. Blanca was already the earliest tropical storm to hit Baja on record, a month before the previous record from Calvin in 1993. If Carlos somehow manages to hit Baja as a hurricane, it would be the earliest hurricane to do so, eclipsing the previous record set from a storm in July 1954. Ryan1000 12:20, June 12, 2015 (UTC)

(←)While Carlos's center is surronded deep convection, Dvorak estimates remain unchanged, and the storm is hence at the same intensity since my last post. The NHC discussion says shear around Carlos is ~15 knots, which could delay significant intensification for another day or two, but I still have faith in Carlos becoming a major. Weak steering currents are causing the storm to meander, but as the ridge kicks in, the storm should begin to accelerate generally NW. There have been no changes in watches or warnings in regards to Carlos; I hope conditions do not get too extreme in Mexico. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:27, June 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * I think there's too much time for this to not at least make a run at a major, unless Carlos fails to build a core in 36-48 hours. The storm has 4 days to intensify, maybe 5 if the models continue to shift east. However, upwelling could be an issue, and that is why the GFDL/HWRF do not blow this up. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:59, June 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Radar from Acapulco suggest Carlos has become disorganized, despite an increase of organization in its inner core. The storm's intensity remains the same, and the NHC once again states shear and upper-level temperatures will keep it in check intensitywise. Moreover, they have downgraded Carlos's forecast peak to 70 knots (80 mph), which is generous compared to model predictions. Motionwise, the storm has become stationary, and until this steering situation clears up, may remain so for another couple of days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:00, June 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * I personally think Carlos might have an outside shot at major status, and it would be awesome if we had 3 majors to kick off the season. With 4/5 days to intensify (according to YE), major status shouldn't be that hard to reach unless upwelling makes Carlos struggle to get to that status. You can do it, Carlos! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:15, June 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Carlos is up to 55 knts per ATCf and appears to be building its inner core, though the eye may not be fully closed off. Also track has shifted back east. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:46, June 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'll wait until the next advisory to make the header, but ATCF says Carlos is finally a hurricane: EP, 03, 2015061312,, BEST, 0, 148N, 1001W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 0, 1007, 180, 20, 80, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, CARLOS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 005, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:36, June 13, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Carlos
NHC-official. Hurricane watch and TS warning up. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:12, June 13, 2015 (UTC) recent visible pics say that it has an eye-like feature. could go EI/RI if it continues. <font face="Lucida Console"> totally destructive  | request tracks to me! 17:34, June 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Pretty amazing. Hopefully it could become a major storm and the 3rd major in a row, even though there's some land in the forecast path! But I hope it would be a major before it begins to really affect Mexico (and weaken down when it really closes in) and I hope for a peak of C3, nothing stronger, because C4+ could cause quite a bit of issues in Mexico. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:00, June 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm getting a T5.5 DT but looks like TAFB/SAB went with a T4.5 with sAB having a DT of 5.0 (DT is sorta like raw ADt numbers), but adjusted down due to constraints. ATCF has 75 knots. This is major bound if it can close of an eye. If it can not close off an eye, it is not major bound. Here's a link to MX radar and shows it may have hit a slight dry slot. Regarding track, the spread is increasing, Both FIM and UKMEt have a Jimena 09 like track and keep this well west. However, so far this is going E of expected. ECMWf and GFS, however, now agree on a landfall in 4 days near Jalisco. The hWRF and GFDL are way further east, however. If this storm has four days over open water, I like it's chances over a major, If its less, then not so much. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:47, June 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Carlos is pretty much a lock for a cat 2 at this point, and although it has an outside shot at cat 3, I would rule a 4 out. But a cat 3 hitting Jalisco isn't a good thing either, no hurricane has ever hit that area this early in the season. The closest ones before were Calvin '93 and Eugene '87, both of which did so in July. Ryan1000 00:33, June 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Why rule a 4 out? There's nothing stopping it until landfall. Not saying it's gonna happen, but it's possible, though models do not intensify this much for reasons I don't fully understand. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:43, June 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Carlos lost a bit of organization lately; the north half seems to have been eroded by some dry air or near-land interaction. I'm still pretty sure it'll become at least a strong 2 or 3, but a 4 is probably pushing it, unless proximity to land doesn't hurt it as much as I foresee it will. Ryan1000 06:32, June 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * After reaching 75 kts/978 mbar this past evening, Carlos's inner core fell apart overnight, and its eye has disappeared from satellite imagery. Combined with decreasing Dvorak estimates, the hurricane's intensity is now 65 knots (75 mph) with a pressure of 983 mbar (hPa; 29.03 inHg). Additionally, the NHC notes that Carlos, similar to Blanca, is "destroying itself" for sitting over the same pocket of water for an extended period of time, causing upwelling. Even though the hurricane will have a chance to reintensify later today, I am going to rule out anything beyond Category 3 intensity now due to this situation. As the ridge builds to the north of Carlos, it should turn more to the NW in the next day or two, before moving more NNW in afterwards as the ridge's influence lessens. I would like to mention the models are disagreeing over when Carlos will make landfall (GFS forecasts it within 48 hours, ECMWF and NHC within 72 hours, UKMET never), and because of this, Mexico has extended its hurricane warning to Punta San Telmo. On some side notes, Carlos has caused some power outages in Guerrero, and according to this article, (in Spanish) the early-season activity is already causing complications for the region, according to its Secretary of Civil Pretections Raúl Milliani Sabido. Speaking of which, Carlos's attaining of a hurricane on the 12th means 2015 got its third hurricane before any other season since the start of the satellite era in 1971.  Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:05, June 14, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Carlos (2nd time)
Down to 60 knts. Appears like there's some upwelling on the south side. North side recovering since shear is lowering and so is dry air. Starting to stabilize I think YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:17, June 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * Carlos might be rebounding, and since it's small, it still has one last chance to pull off a stint of RI before it gets too close to land in a few days and makes landfall. Ryan1000 19:48, June 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * your right Ryan. Carlos might pull an surpise on us since it has the eye-like feature. <font face="Lucida Console"> totally destructive  | request tracks to me! 20:15, June 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * At this stage, that might even be bad. You want their to be cold cloud tops. But I will say there is a pinhole eye feature on radar, and Carlos has improved in organization as shear relaxes. It has 48 hours left to do it, maybe more if we see a shift left. But it may have to re-do it's core, so that could take another day. Who knows, maybe landfall will get pushed back again. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:00, June 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * While Carlos does seem to have improved its organization, the NHC has noted its cloud tops have warmed by roughly ten degrees (Celsius), and consequently have maintained the storm's intensity at 60 knots (70 mph)/986 mbar (hPa; 29.12 inHg). As the ridge currently dictating Carlos's motion intensifies, the storm should keep moving WNW for another couple of days before moving around its western axis in ~72 hours. Also, if landfall occurs, the lack of steering flow around the Sierra Madre (Occidental?) would prevent Carlos from going too far inland. Intensitywise, since the NHC notes Carlos is moving into an environment with lower shear, they are calling for reintensification into a hurricane tonight, but how strong it actually gets depends on its proximity to Mexico. They call for a 75 knot (85 mph) secondary peak, but I still believe Carlos can become a Category 2 if it stays far enough offshore in the next few days. To end this post, I would like to acknowledge of Carlos and 91L in Guatemala. This article (also in Spanish) highlights the effects, such as the bad drainage states in La Ladrillera, Guatemala and a fatality due to soil saturation (there are two reported deaths so far). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:05, June 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * Eh...maybe that image from before was only a temporary well-organization, NHC no longer expects a hurricane landfall in Mexico and Carlos appears to have lost itself again, there is no longer a well-defined eye on sattelite imagery, and it's getting closer to Mexico. It might not even become a hurricane again if this keeps up. Ryan1000 02:56, June 15, 2015 (UTC)

so it seems that Carlos is tearing apart. but it has a slight shot to became an hurricane back at this point now. GFS is calling to dissipate in the next hours. (probable 91L influence?) <font face="Lucida Console"> totally destructive <font face="Lucida Console"> | request tracks to me! 04:10, June 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * I struggle to explain why Carlos isn't intensifying. The core is offshore, winds are light, and waters are warm unless there's more upwelling. The GFS is under initializing this system for about a day, and has constantly showed rapid dissipation. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:24, June 15, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Carlos (2nd time)
Pressure up slightly to 989 mbar, but Hurricane Hunters found 65 kt surface winds. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:05, June 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * FYI, Recon is finding a pressure of 992 mbar. 990 mbar is good, not 989 IMO. SFMR is 67 and 66. Dropsonde is 65. Pressure is falling. Could be intensifying, but probs steady state. Conditions are fairly favorable for slow intensification as waters are very warm and shear will be either low or moderate throughout the forecast period, though shear is currently preventing the LCC, eye, and MLC from lining up properly. If it can gets a core together and can avoid land, I guess this could intensify. Otherwise, I'd expect a steady state. Core of this hurricane is super small. Tracks have shifted left, so this may not make landfall at all. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:41, June 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * I guess all chances for this becoming a major have vanished. Carlos should bring some impacts to Mexico during the next few days, but at absolute maximum I predict it could reach 90-100 mph, but again that's my most optimistic prediction and Carlos might actually just not strengthen much at all before the weakening phase starts. I so wanted our 3rd major in a row, but I guess it's not happening :( --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:56, June 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't predict anything with Carlos. You never know how this storm is gonna behave. In theory, this could make it to a major, but I really doubt it, but who knows. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:16, June 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's nice to see Carlos became a hurricane again, even though conditions aren't ideal for further intensification. Motionwise, the models remain divided over where Carlos will move; to highlight, ECMWF and the UKMET forecast the hurricane moving more westward, whereas the GFS takes it closer to Mexico. The NHC is leaning towards the latter scenario because of the ridge steering Carlos weakening due to 91L's influence. While shear is expected to lessen and SST's of 29C are in the hurricane's forecast path, land interaction with Mexico and its small size should prevent any rapid intensification (but who knows?) before thermodynamic conditions effectively kill the system after a few days. On a side note, although all hurricane warnings have been dropped, a third fatality was reported in Guadalajara due to falling metal. The threat is not over yet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:18, June 16, 2015 (UTC)

Carlos looks terrible on satellite imagery now. still a Marco-sized storm. <font face="Lucida Console"> totally destructive  | request tracks to me! 03:38, June 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * Eh, looks very steady state. It looks bad since there are no spiral bands since it is so small. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:31, June 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * The NHC discussion notes Carlos's organization has improved and an eye feature has redeveloped. However, the hurricane's intensity remains the same. As Bill's influence continues to weaken the STR over Mexico, Carlos should start to turn NNW tomorrow and ccontinue moving as so until dissipation. Moreover, since this motion brings the hurricane into an area of dry air, the NHC and all models show weakening for the next few days, with the former expecting in degeneration in ~72 hours. Nevertheless, swells, gale-force winds, and rainfall of up to 10 inches is still possible for the Mexican coastal area under TC warnings. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:03, June 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * Whoa, suddenly Carlos is up to 80 kts/984 mbar. The first sentence of the latest discussion sums it up nicely: "Carlos is a feisty little hurricane." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:46, June 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * You can thank the latest recon mission for that; they reported winds in Carlos higher than satellite imagery suggests, as well as a small eye. Forecasting this hurricane intensitywise will be rather difficult, as statistical models predict the maintaining of Carlos's hurricane reign for another few days in contrast to the global ones forecasting rapid weakening, namely ECMWF. Regardless of what happens, Carlos's small size makes it susceptible to even minor changes in its environment, so there could be sudden intensity changes. Motionwise, recon data indicate the hurricane is moving more NW, and based on remaining model guidance, forecast the continuation of this general motion until dissipation in ~96 hours. Maybe Carlos could still become a major if the environment supports it? After all, this is quite a rebellious system. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:51, June 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's falling apart again. It can rebound though if it doesn't become fully exposed for any major length of time. But it's so small, so any shear can kill it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:53, June 16, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Carlos (3rd time)
As fast as Carlos came together, it is weakening extremely quickly, likely because of moderate shear and dry air that usually destroys small TC's. Winds have fallen to 40 knots (45 mph) with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). As low-level flow to Carlos's NE and and a Gulf of California low pressure move the storm generally to the NW, it should make a landfall over Mexico within 12 hours. From here, interaction with high terrain will effectively be Carlos's death sentence, and it will emerge over the Gulf of California as a low-pressure area before rapidly dissipating. Nevertheless, a TS warning remains up, and some threats, such as life-threatening surf and rainfall of a couple inches in some Mexican states, remain possible from Carlos, and the storm should still be taken seriously. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, June 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Carlos is making landfall in southwestern Mexico as a minimal tropical storm right now, and it appears to be devoid of all it's deep convection. It should be dead by tomorrow. Ryan1000 17:21, June 17, 2015 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone Carlos
dead. <font face="Comic Sans MS"> totally destructive  | get hyper! 21:43, June 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, totally dead, but sucks it didn't become a major. But nice try Carlos! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:52, June 17, 2015 (UTC) but did he set the smallest hurricane on record? <font face="Comic Sans MS">  totally destructive  | get hyper! 21:58, June 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't really know. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:03, June 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Marco of 2008 holds the record for smallest TC on record. As for smallest hurricane-strength storm, Cyclone Tracy of '74. Ryan1000 23:07, June 17, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.Near CPac
This one is in the southwestern corner of the basin near the CPac's area of responsibility. However, it's only at 10/20, and probably won't become much. Ryan1000 04:54, June 27, 2015 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
Investd. 20/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:29, June 27, 2015 (UTC)

seems that it has an half-open eye?. does this look like a weak TS? <font face="Comic Sans MS"> totally destructive  | get hyper! 16:45, June 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * Conditions actually aren't too bad for 90C for the time being, but in a few days, this storm will be encountering strong shear that should keep it from developing significantly. Ryan1000 19:04, June 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * I do look forward to this system becoming something. This (I'm hoping) should become "Ela", or if it develops unexpectedly rapidly and defies all of our expectations, there could even be the low chance of it becoming "Dolores" before crossing into the CPac basin. This El Nino is making the EPac interesting to track thus far this year, and I really do look forward to what the rest of the season has in store for the coming months! But if we see it failing to become named, which is somewhat likely to happen because of it being further west than typical EPac systems (And the CPac never gets much systems due to the conditions there, expect for the abnormality in August 2013) and also because of the strong shear, then Ela might have to wait for a little while longer. But even if it does develop, it'll only be a weak to moderate TS. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 20:12, June 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * I have no idea why this is an invest to tell you the truth. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:52, June 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this thing's been torn apart lately, there's hardly any convection with it now and it's back down to 10%. Should die out soon. Ryan1000 11:56, June 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * I guess I was overestimating this thing, since I'm usually a bit optimistic about developing systems. Anyways, it is currently being ripped into pieces by some evil CPac shear, let's say bye to this epic fail 'invest'! We're still waiting for you, Ela and Dolores! Come soon guys! :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:35, June 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * We all do that in here, Steve. Sometimes I feel like a party pooper in here, even though on other forums, I have a reputation for being bullish. Keep your optimism here since we're back (AFAIK) in an active era, but keep it away from the ATL, where there is 100 knots of shear :P YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:01, June 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * And it's gone.  leeboy100 My Talk! 14:13, June 29, 2015 (UTC)