Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

September
It's already September in UTC; might as well start this now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:04, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll add the disturbance just in case it forms on this month.Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:43, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical wave behind Hurricane Irma
This tropical wave is emerging from the African coast a bit south of where Irma is so this future system could end up being a low-rider. Currently highlighted by NHC at 0/20. Depending on the development order between this and the GOM Aoi, it will either be Jose or Katia. Owen 18:11, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel this could be another big one... the Atlantic is being really frightening right now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:50, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh my, is the Atlantic on a roll right now? I hope not, but this is the peak of the season... anyway, this thing is still at 0/20 (just like the AOI below), and things can still change. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:12, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Models are now developing this into Jose and it looks poise to become our next major if its not affected by shear of Irma. This one is a low rider so strenghtening is forecast as it will pass warmer water than Irma. The lesser antilles should keep an eye on this one as it might be a double punch after all. Allan calderini


 * 0/40. This is really something to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:07, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50. Are we about to see two back-to-back Cape Verde type hurricanes? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:36, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:43, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here comes Jose, which could become another major Cape-Verde type hurricane. I have sort of a bad feeling with this one as well... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:01, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/70. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:33, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 0/60. This may be weaker than Irma though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:04, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/70. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:32, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Currently 30/70, may change in the next advisory though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 40/80. The race to Jose is on, will it be this or the Bay of Campeche AOI? ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:36, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Invested and up to 40/80. It may become Jose once it's a TS. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 50/80. I hope this won't exacerbate the (expected) impacts/effects of Irma. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 60/90. Already producing winds of near tropical storm force. While everyone is focused on Irma, we have to keep an eye on what will probably become Tropical Storm Jose. Could be another hurricane...maybe third major in a row. Owen 05:36, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't want to get financial advice from a hurricane specialists...their INVEST-ments lead to depressions!12.144.5.2 06:12, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol 12. This isn't likely to do as much as Irma, due to outflow from the latter that should keep this in check intensity-wise and a more northward turn that will likely make this miss the Lesser Antilles and the U.S. Bermuda may have to watch out down the road though, and maybe Atlantic Canada.Ryan1000 07:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:51, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jose
And we have the 10th named storm of the year. Currently behind Irma and forecast to become a 105 mph cat 2, but fortunately it's expected to miss the Lesser Antilles...but like I said before, Bermuda and/or Atlantic Canada may have to watch out in the long run. Ryan1000 15:00, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh I just hope it won't be a Marilyn for the Antilles (as Irma is being very eerily similar to Luis for them). Meanwhile, those in Bermuda should keep an eye on Jose. They may have escaped Gonzalo '14 and Nicole '16, but this storm may be something to watch out for. If this hits the Canadian Maritimes, this may have a decent chance of retirement (as what happened to Igor '10 and Juan '03). For now though, all eyes are on Irma and this storm, although a threat, is not (yet) a major threat. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Are the Carolina Outer Banks safe?12.144.5.2 15:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12, It's far too soon to tell that with Jose. Give it some time. Ryan1000 15:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Didn't really expect Jose to come this soon. I really hope it's a fishspinner. Luckily it could miss the Lessers (unless the track shifts a bit south), but Bermuda and Atlantic Canada may have to watch out. My best hope is that this becomes a fishspinning major because devastation is NOT what we need after the Harvey and Irma monsters. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:02, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I didn't even know Jose had formed. Sorry Jose, that just shows how much people care about you compared to Irma. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 18:58, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes, Irma is the big and scary one at the current moment. But little Jose is up to 45 mph/1006 mbars. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:35, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * We are focusing on Irma, sorry Jose. Anyway, this is forecasted to be a hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose is trying his best to strengthen and be noticed behind a certain monster near the Lessers. It is now 50 mph/1004 mbars. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:58, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * 60 mph/1002 as of Advisory 4.12.144.5.2 11:39, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose is quickly getting his act together, he might become a hurricane later today at the rate he's going. However, due to the upwelled water and outflow from Irma, Jose likely won't get too powerful over the open Atlantic. Ryan1000 13:25, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
 * Yep, you guessed it. Jose to become a hurricane by tonight. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:33, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fabian 2, to be honest.  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:21, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * If you looked closely at the advisory, you can see these are being released by the WPC. This is probably practice for the backups if NHC goes down.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:28, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Jose
Looks stronger than 75 mph on satellite.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:02, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Jose is supposed to pass by Barbuda as a Category 3 on Saturday,according to the NHC...I don't think his offer of pressure-washing is the kind of cleanup they need!12.144.5.2 21:36, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * I really hope that's not the case, Irma was bad enough for them...no way, Jose. Ryan1000 23:03, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, no way Jose for him. Classic. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:35, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol Ryan. No way, Jose, will you be another Lesser Antilles monster! This is forecast to be a major when it passes just north of the Lessers. I hope this doesn't impact them, especially after that other catastrophic monster. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:45, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I said that in my retirement predictions 6 years ago when Jose flopped and had no chance of retirement. While this Jose is no flop regarding strength, hopefully it won't affect land during it's lifetime. Ryan1000 07:29, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still at 90 mph and 986 mb, but it's forming an eye and should become a major soon. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:56, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Antigua & Barbuda now have a Hurricane Watch.12.144.5.2 15:10, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose appears to be going rapid intensification. Looks like the Leewards are about to get hammered again. --Whiplash (talk) 15:59, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Welcome to Category 2,Jose...please stay over the open ocean.12.144.5.2 17:59, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 105 mph and 978 mbars now, the core is still expected to narrowly miss the northeastern Lessers. There could still be some impacts from Jose in Barbuda, but nothing like what Irma did to the island. Ryan1000 18:08, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Just thinking of the disruption caused to recovery efforts.12.144.5.2 19:24, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Um... 18z ATCF makes Jose the third (consecutive) major hurricane of the season... AL, 12, 2017090718,, BEST, 0, 153N, 516W, 100, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 150, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOSE, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 90, 80, 110, genesis-num, 025, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:37, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, this is RIing... Jose really wants attention because he's jealous of Irma getting all of it. Unfortunately, this could severely hamper Irma recovery efforts for Barbuda, etc. No way, Jose, are you getting those northeastern Caribbean islands. Leave them alone! D: ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:01, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * With potential impacts from Jose looming over the Leeward Islands so soon after Irma, a certain adage bears repeating: Beware the first storm of September!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, September 7, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Jose
Official per NHC. 105 kts/966 mbar, forecast peak intensity raised to 120 kts. This has a decent shot of becoming the third consecutive Category 4 hurricane of the season, which would be the first such occurrence on record for the Atlantic basin. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:36, September 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Fortunately, it's not expected to make a direct landfall over the upper Lessers, but pass close. Hopefully Jose doesn't hit them after what they went through with Irma. Speaking of Irma, the upwelled water near the upper Lessers and some dry air should keep Jose from intensifying as hard as Irma did, but the long-range forecast for this is complicated. The GFS expects this to be a fishspinner after passing the Lessers, but the Euro expects this to do a loop and threaten the U.S. east coast after Irma moves inland. This bears some serious watching down the road if the Euro verifies. The Euro has also shifted back to a west-coast skimming of Florida for Irma, but the GFS is still insisting a Miami hit before moving into Georgia. Ryan1000 20:52, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I found a news story online about the regional agency CDEMA saying Jose was affecting the timing of evacuating people from Barbuda.12.144.5.2 00:43, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * St. Martin, which was impacted by Irma, received a hurricane warning. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:24, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Is it strange to say that Jose's appearance is starting to look like Irma couple days ago?-- Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:50, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory upps Jose to 125 mph and 957 mbars, but Jose will be moving over the upwelled waters of Irma soon. Ryan1000 09:35, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Honestly, as long as Jose either weakens quite a bit before its closest pass to the Lessers, or heads more northward than expected (or, ideally, both)... I hope that Jose manages to squeak in Category 4 intensity while it still has time to do so, just so we can have our first-ever instance of back-to-back-to-back C4+ Atlantic hurricanes. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:26, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12z ATCF lists Jose's pressure as being 15 mbar lower than at the 5am or 8am (intermediate) advisories (942 vs. 957), though it maintains Jose's 110-kt winds. I'm wondering if the drop in pressure will hint at an upgrade to Category 4 intensity when the 11am advisory rolls around... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:38, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

Update released and Jose is up to 150mph/942mb. Recon found (suspect) SFMR winds of 170mph too. Crazy, not looking good for the Leewards unfortunately. Kiewii 14:13, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jose is now a Cat 4 with 942mb and 150mph winds. Brief cat 5 is a possibility. --Whiplash (talk) 14:16, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * At this rate the northeastern Lesser Antilles are going to become Lesser Atlantis... This is probably the worst possible time for an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:22, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Plz no Category 5... It will become worse to them. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:30, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * As Irma weakens to 150 mph, Jose intensifies to 150 mph. I don't know anymore; I just hope that Jose won't exacerbate Irma's effects in the Leewards. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 2PM Jose stays at 150 mph while dropping 2mb of pressure.The evacuation of Barbuda is being affected (forecast track runs quite close).12.144.5.2 18:21, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory comes out in about an hour, and I have a bad feeling that Jose will be upgraded to a category 5 (Irma is another story, it's eye still looks ragged.) It looks so well organized I'll be surprised if it isn't upgraded. This will spell disaster for the folks in Barbuda and surrounding islands. They don't need another category 5, especially one less than a week after Irma. Also, we went 9 years without a category 5 in the Atlantic, and now we might have three within just a 2-year span. Unbelievable. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 23:07, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * BT shows Jose at 135 kt, recon showed 142 kt unflagged.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:39, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 11PM advisory has Jose with 155 mph winds but forecast to only weaken from here on.12.144.5.2 03:09, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am shocked that Jose got this powerful, but C5 is looking unlikely. It's now just forecast to weaken. Irma recovery areas (Barbuda, etc.) are bracing for hurricane impacts once again... this shouldn't be like Irma though. And I'd give a small (<25%) chance that this will actually gain the 5 more mph to reach C5 immediately before the weakening begins. Has 2 back-to-back C5's ever happened before in the Atlantic? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 2AM,winds down to 150.12.144.5.2 06:07, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Although Jose is passing close to the northeastern Lessers, it's also a small hurricane with most of the thunderstorm activity northeast of the center, so even slightly missing the islands could mean having little to no impacts at all. Ryan1000 10:35, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

145 mph, 944 mbars. Good that this will bypass the Lessers. My fingers are crossed for the coming days though. If the expected loop happens, I don't know anymore — Florida might get a double whammy. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:54, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Newest update: only 1 millibar higher than the previous advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:59, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Most models don't show Jose hitting Florida any more. Instead they make Jose reintensify after doing a loop and either go out to sea or towards Atlantic Canada. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:20, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hopefully that's true, KN. Atlantic Canada may need to keep an eye on this one, though I bet it won't be as severe as Igor '10 or Juan '03 if it hits land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:02, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed if it's true. Hopefully, it doesn't hit Florida. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! - 68.106.0.77 18:49, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose is now passing right by Irma recovery areas in the northeastern Caribbean. I hope it doesn't do further devastation there. And Jose can stay away from Atlantic Canada or any other landmass. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:27, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'd like to mention that last night, when the NHC bumped Jose's winds to 135 kts, they said that Jose's satellite appearance had actually degraded somewhat in the hours leading up to the advisory... does anyone else think Jose might be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-analysis? Such would mean that we had two Category 5s coexisting in the Atlantic, what with Irma striking Cuba around the time Jose would have been a C5. What a season this has become. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:30, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose now gradually weakening, 115 kn/944 mbar. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:23, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Were gonna have to watch this guy as looks like he is going to do a Jeanne 2004 according to models and do a nice loop and potentially threaten the U.S. Eastern Seaboard and will restrengthen when doing so. Could potentially be retirement candidate number 3 if he does so. This is currently far out however. --Whiplash (talk) 05:08, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still a C4 as of the 5AM advisory... the latest GFS and Euro runs are scary. But those runs are for next week, which of course makes it subject to further change(s). The East Coast needs to watch out for this though; this looks like a re-Gloria ('85) that will do a Jeanne-esque loop. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:09, September 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * The track forecast with this becomes pretty complicated in the long run, the GFS expects the trough that's currently recurving Irma northward to outrun Jose as it makes it's loop and eventually makes Jose hit the mid-Atlantic head-on down the road, while the Euro makes Jose ride up the east coast on that trough and eventually hit Maine as a 960 mbar category 3 hurricane. No major hurricane has ever made landfall that far north before in the Atlantic. Either scenario wouldn't be good news, and if Jose does hit the U.S. down the road and cause enough impact, it would make this season the first on record to feature 3 consecutive retired names in the Atlantic. This almost happened a few times in the past, most notably in 1955 and 2008, but the "H" storms in those years (Hilda and Hanna, respectively) were snubbed despite their high death tolls. Ryan1000 09:23, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hopefully Jose misses the East Coast and Atlantic Canada because I've had enough of all this devastation lately. They will still need to prepare as Jose seems to be really threatening the regions. 2017 is for sure going down as the costliest season ever. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:10, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Jose (2nd time)
Down to a cat 2 now, 105 and 968. Jose will likely begin his clockwise loop over the next few days, but it's still too far out to tell what impacts this hurricane could have for the U.S. It could hit north Carolina and go northeast anywhere from eastern Long Island to Maine, or it could miss the U.S. east coast entirely and potentially threaten Atlantic Canada as a strong hurricane. Ryan1000 10:34, September 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Or he could just go out to sea like a good boy. 8) --Whiplash (talk) 22:30, September 11, 2017 (UTC)

Jose is looking really disorganized right now. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's fury, Never Forget. 22:56, September 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * I agree. It looks more like a tropical storm than a Category 2 hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:54, September 12, 2017 (UTC)

Now a Category 1. 85 mph, 982 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's fury, Never Forget. 04:09, September 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Phew, it's now weakening. I hope it doesn't make landfall at all. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:26, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope the same. However, a lot of model guidance seems to be directing Jose towards Atlantic Canada. Unless it moves as east as possible, Atlantic Canada or even New England may have to brace for impacts. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:43, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC says could be downgraded to tropical storm soon.12.144.5.2 18:00, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Not yet, Jose is expected to maintain hurricane intensity. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:33, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Predictions have Jose remaining a hurricane until the 16th, when it becomes a Tropical Storm. But the forecast retains 70+ mph winds through the whole forecast period. The cone is kinda directing it the Bermuda way. That island shouldn't get too much other than heavy rain if that's the case, since it will pass to the northwest. Hopefully Jose avoids Atlantic Canada in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

The way Jose looks right now due to the shear, reminds me of the way Nicole looked last year before she exploded. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:59, September 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jose fighting from the shear, as he loops around. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 22:41, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose will be moving over his own wake over the next few days which may keep his intensity in check longer before he turns north. The track has shifted slightly towards the east coast, but still keeps Jose offshore. However, due to Jose's expected expansion in size and slow movement, rip currents will be a threat to the U.S. east coast even if Jose doesn't make landfall. Ryan1000 23:20, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jose (2nd time)
Down to a TS now, 70 mph and 989 mbars. However, Jose is forecast to restrengthen to an 85 mph hurricane over the weekend and the NHC track forecast is coming dangerously close to New England down the road, especially Massachusetts. This still bears watching. Ryan1000 15:56, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * The forecast secondary peak has been upped to 90 mph, but luckily it is forecast to slowly weaken after the 17th. I hope that if it does strike New England, it hits as a TS and causes as little impacts as possible. Everywhere from New England to Atlantic Canada is being threatened by Jose. It better not become a really impacting storm, as Harvey and Irma were more than enough for the U.S. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:36, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I think it will impact New England and Atlantic Canada, but it's a bit too early to tell. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:58, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * The cone seems to be pointed in the general direction of New England to Nova Scotia. Unless Jose turns sharply eastward out to sea, it is a threat to Atlantic Canada and New England. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:25, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Some model conflict ongoing: GFS and CMC bring this out to sea after moving perilously close to New England and Atlantic Canada, while ECMWF makes Jose loop off New England before moving over Washington and Philadelphia. Unfortunately, this means a re-Sandy is still on the cards. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:42, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Jose (3rd time)
Back up to a hurricane 107.77.105.62 21:37, September 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * 75 mph/983 mb is the intensity. It will be a threat to New England. Rip currents will come when it nears New England. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 00:02, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC forecasts a sharp turn late in the forecast period, but a trough isn't going to arrive to recurve Jose until late next week, so Jose, despite not being too powerful, could bring heavy flooding and impacts to the coastline if he passes close enough. Ryan1000 10:12, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

I think I see an eye trying to pop out. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:05, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I see it too. Clouds cover it, but I can see it trying to come out. Anyway, Jose is looking like a minor threat to New England and could bring rain and heavy surf to the region. Thankfully it's forecast to turn away before reaching Nova Scotia. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:09, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * It may be too soon to tell that however, the trough recurving Jose may not be strong enough to keep it away from a landfall on Massachusetts if it passes far enough north or if Jose moves faster than anticipated. However, Jose making landfall in Massachusetts as a weak hurricane may actually be a better scenario for the U.S. overall, because if Jose moves slowly enough near the state, then his southern flow may recurve Maria out to sea before she approaches the U.S. east coast next week, but if Jose gets recurved eastward quickly before he makes landfall then Maria will be less likely to go out to sea, and since Maria could be a powerful major hurricane by the time she passes north of the Bahamas, I'd rather deal with a weak Jose than a strong Maria. The interaction between the two storms next week is going to be a major factor in how the U.S. fares from these storms. Ryan1000 00:24, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jose getting around with the ladies this year. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) --Whiplash (talk) 20:34, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol, anyway, Jose is now forecast to start looping towards the south at the end of the forecast period (possibly due to Maria). Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the east coast from Delaware to Massachusetts. Jose likes to dance with ladies (first Irma and now Maria). :P ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:16, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's still too soon to know what influence Jose will have on Maria, and the intensity of the two storms and how fast Jose moves will have a big difference in the impacts caused by the two storms. The latest Euro run moves the remnants of Jose southwest after turning east and getting absorbed by a much larger and more powerful Maria moving up the east coast to a New England landfall, but the GFS has jumped onto the Euro's 00Z run from this morning, showing Jose and Maria doing a fujiwhara loop off the east coast and bringing both out to sea. Hopefully that's the case. However, New England should still watch out for Jose; even if he's not too strong, flooding could be a big threat should Jose comes close enough to Massachusetts. Ryan1000 22:44, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

What can I say? Jose is a ladies-man. He's getting all the lady hurricanes. Well, except for Katia, who just danced alone by herself near Mexico. I do hope both stay out to sea, but we'll see. I mean, away from the east coast. As it's pretty much guaranteed that Maria will hit the Leeward Islands first. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 02:08, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, although it's still a bit too soon to know for sure how the interaction of Jose and Maria will result. Jose is now down to 75 mph/977 mbars and a TS warning has been issued for the Rhode Island/Massachusetts area. I don't think this will be anything severe for New England. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Steve, you should keep in mind Jose has a very large wind field and an expansive area of thunderstorms, and most of Jose's thunderstorm convection is displaced north of the circulation; the southern half of this storm has almost been completely eroded by dry air, so even if Jose misses making a landfall in Massachusetts to the south, the state will definitely feel impacts from this, and Jose's unusually slow movement for a hurricane in this part of the Atlantic mean that flooding is going to be a big problem for areas of southern New England from the storm. We saw with Harvey earlier this year that a storm's circulation doesn't have to pass directly over a major city to cause significant flooding and/or historic damage there, especially if the storm is big and moving slowly. While Jose probably won't be as bad for the area around Boston as Harvey was for Houston, Jose definitely shouldn't be written off as a storm with minor impacts just yet; in fact, if flooding is bad enough in Massachusetts, it's very possible Jose could join his two predecesors as a retired name. Ryan1000 22:43, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I guess I should've put "I hope it won't be anything severe for New England." I think Harvey, Irma and Maria kind of made me redefine what "severe" is. Agreed that its large size could result in some potentially significant flood impacts. A best-case scenario in which Jose is not such a bad flooding event and much of the rain stays offshore is what we certainly need after Harvey, Irma, and Maria. This season has done enough. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:12, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, it's continuing its rip currents along the East Coast of US. Umm, this doesn't look tropical anymore (well, to me). Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:02, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jose (3rd time)
Back to a TS. 60 kn/973 mb. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:54, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Finally, Jose got downgraded below hurricane intensity after a long time of being a hurricane (excluding the portion of Jose being a tropical storm during the loop out in the open Atlantic almost a week ago). This time, it's going for good. Jose lasted quite a while. New England is not getting much impacts aside from heavy surf and rip currents - looking at the weather.com radar map, all I see is a few showers associated with Jose over the region, mainly over eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Hopefully any impacts are minor from here on out. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:29, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose's northern rainbands are currently bringing heavy rains and strong surf in parts of Massachusetts as we speak, and while it may not be particularly strong or making a direct landfall there, Jose's slow movement offshore means this could be prolonged for several days, and New England isn't frequently impacted by hurricanes, let alone slow-moving ones like Jose. Hopefully flooding won't be too bad, though I have a bad feeling it could be extensive in parts of southeastern Massachusetts. However, if Jose sticks around there long enough, we can at least be thankful that despite Jose's impacts, his southernly flow will recurve Maria eastward and away from the U.S. east coast, as indicated by the current and more recent runs of both the GFS and Euro models. Ryan1000 19:47, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jose is now at 60 mph and 982 mbars. That is a low pressure for a 60 mph storm. I believe that it is due to Jose's not-very-tropical-looking structure and possible baroclinity. The main rainbands are already starting to strike southeastern Massachusetts, and due to its slow movement, there is obvious potential for some flooding. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:25, September 21, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose
Now turned Post-Tropical. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 03:26, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Honestly think that it turned extratropical couple days ago, when the winds were stronger way outside the center.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:57, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

Watch. He's gonna pull a Nadine, and come back. He's been just like her anyways.

lol. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 04:05, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

final advisory by the NHC issued on Jose. roussil 97  20:46, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * "After 70 advisories, enough is enough" -- Forecaster Blake. Ryan1000 02:15, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol. Jose is the longest lasting storm since Nadine... And luckily, it wasn't that bad for the east coast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:48, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
Another AOI is on the Gulf of Mexico. It's at 10/10. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 19:36, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/20. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 01:40, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 10/30. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:32, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/40. This is really the peak of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 40/50. Not sure if it becomes Katia. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria? This will become at most Katia if it is named... anyway, this might probably only be a TS because conditions are only marginally conducive. The race to Jose is on! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:38, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested and is now at 50/60. The loser will become Katia, the winner becomes Jose — unless one of them follows the same fate as PTC 10. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Woah, it's now 60/70. The race for Jose is really on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:53, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * This'll be Katia if it forms now, since 94L became Jose. Ryan1000 15:03, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, here comes Katia. It will meander around the BOC and possibly be a re-Nate or Ingrid, although it's too early to tell if it will be a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:03, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
Now a TD. Forecast to gradually strengthen. It'll curve to the southwest, something I don't think I've ever seen before in a BOC tropical cyclone. Current intensity is 35 mph/1008 mbar, and it's forecast to reach 65. But knowing NHC forecasts to be conservative, a hurricane is an outside possibility. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * HWRF predicted a strong hurricane with this earlier, but they're probably too aggressive with some weaker storms like this one, although they perform well with organized, stronger hurricanes (even though Irma outperformed every model by becoming a cat 5 this morning). Ryan1000 23:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * The potential 11th named storm, Katia, will be coming any moment now. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia
DVORAK estimates up above 35 kt now - I expect the upgrade to Tropical Storm Katia at 2 or 5 am. Have a feeling this will be another hurricane. Owen 05:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hello Katia! It is going to be Re-Franklin because it will hit on the same location as Franklin (I think). Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:12, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Expectations or not,as of the 2 AM NHC map it is still TD Thirteen,NOT "Katia".12.144.5.2 06:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * It was already being called Katia on the storm floaters page, and the 5 AM advisory confirmed that. 40 mph, 1006 mbars. We have the 11th named storm of the year. Ryan1000 08:47, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well damn, the NHC now expects Katia to become a hurricane as well, that'll give us 6 consecutive hurricanes, assuming Jose becomes one. The Atlantic hasn't pulled that off since 2005 had Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, and Stan. Ryan1000 16:02, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Whaat? Another Frankie?  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:22, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Katia is almost a hurricane or just one.  I see Jose Will also be upgrade. Incredible Katia could be a strong cat 2 or minimal cat 3 at the pace its going. Unbelievable season we have. Allan Calderini143.255.32.45 19:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Upgraded in BT and recon shows hurricane SFMR winds.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:26, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane watches up in Mexico. Could possibly RI.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Didn't expect to be a hurricane but ok... Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 22:46, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Could be quite a dangerous system if this thing parks itself over Mexico City. The city is basically an ancient lake bed which could be very prone to a slow moving rainmaker. May become retirement candidate depending on how this unfolds. --Whiplash (talk) 22:49, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Woah! I didn't expect Katia to intensify that fast. Well, hopefully she doesn't get too strong before turning southwest and hitting Mexico, Katia may fall victim to upwelling over her own slow movement if she doesn't pick up speed soon. Ryan1000 23:03, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hot damn! Didn't expect Katia to get this strong already. The NHC is now taking Katia to a strong C2. There's a high chance we could be looking at the 2nd BOC major on record, after Karl '10. I hope this is not as bad as Karl, though... And plus, this is an incredibly small hurricane (I think). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:48, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * You're right Steve, according to the public advisory, hurricane-force winds go out only 10 miles from the center of Katia and TS force winds go out only 70 miles. While small hurricanes like Katia are more prone to rapid intensification than big ones, they're also more susceptible to weakening from wind shear and dry air, though Katia's slow movement, as I mentioned earlier, could cause it to weaken by upwelling over its own wake instead, unless it picks up speed soon. Let's just hope that if it does RI before hitting Mexico, it hits an unpopulated part of the coastline. Currently Katia is projected to hit farther north than Veracruz and south of Tampico, so hopefully impacts won't be too severe from this. We saw how Franklin killed no people in Mexico earlier this year, hopefully that's the case with Katia too. Ryan1000 11:23, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intermediate advisory is out, 70 kts/983 mbar. If Jose and Katia both become major hurricanes, then pending reanalysis of the 1961 AHS (which I don't think has been completed?), this will be the first season with four consecutive major hurricanes since that season kicked off with five in a row. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:20, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nope, 1961 hasn't been done yet, so it's possible we could get a record-tying 4 consecutive majors (the first 4 storms of 1926 also did that btw). Ryan1000 14:08, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensity at 80 mph/983 mb. Btw, I doubt it will be a major hurricane due to the proximity to land. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:37, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't cast doubt on this... Katia is a small hurricane, so it could end up RIing in any favorable enough conditions it can encounter. But its upwelling is also an issue, and that could prevent it from getting too strong. The Mexican coast along Katia's forecast track needs to prepare, for this could get as bad as Karl unless it strikes a sparsely populated area. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:05, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I see an eye on visible satellite imagery... ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:31, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

And now I barely see the eye, it isn't clear anymore. Hours away from making landfall in Mexico. 85 mph/982 mb. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:22, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Mexico has just been hit with an 8.4 magnitude earthquake (with confirmed tsunami) off the coast of Chiapas...with Katia just to the north about to make landfall. =( Has a tropical cyclone ever hit around the time of an earthquake? Jake52 (talk) 06:45, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * That's what I don't know Jake, but God forbid Katia from affecting the same Mexican states who were badly hit by the quake. (It was the Pacific side of Mexico that took the brunt of the quake, but the tremor was felt/detected across Central America and even as far as Austin, TX. Hope Katia's precipitation won't hamper recovery efforts.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:18, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jake, if memory serves, I believe there was an earthquake that struck southern Japan shortly after typhoon Man-Yi made landfall there in July 2007 as a strong category 2 storm, but that's about the only other example I can think of. Anyhow, Katia is now up to 90 mph/977 mbars and is approaching cat 2 strength before it'll hit Mexico later today. Ryan1000 09:35, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, that means that Mexico will receive a double whammy (unfortunately). A rare one to make landfall in the country that encountered an earthquake. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:34, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Make that 100mph/975 for Category 2 Katia,forecast to reach 105mph by landfall with a chance of Cat 3.12.144.5.2 16:03, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 2PM,105mph/974.12.144.5.2 18:22, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * 4 pm update, 105 mph/972 mb. Getting close to make landfall. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:36, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall in Mexico
Katia has now crossed the coastline, and it doesn't have much longer before it dissipates over Mexico due to her small circulation. Katia didn't become a major before landfall, but there will still be some impacts from this. Ryan1000 02:06, September 9, 2017 (UTC) ...KATIA MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF TECOLUTLA MEXICO...
 * Katia has officially made landfall in Mexico. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:04, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm bamboozled with what Mexico has to go through, and with all the natural disasters that has happened recently in North America (fires in western U.S., the earthquake, and obviously the hurricanes). Mexico is not alone with this nonsense- First the earthquake, and now this? But Katia shouldn't be too devastating, due to its small size and striking a less populated area (I think). I lowkey wanted a major (but kinda didn't want it either due to it approaching land), but I guess Katia couldn't do it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:13, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia (2nd time)
At 2 AM already down to 45mph.12.144.5.2 06:09, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Katia is rapidly weakening over Mexico. Expected to dissipate later on. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 07:18, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Katia
Briefly became a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Katia
Down and out. Hope the effects aren't that bad. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Reports at least 2 people have died in mudslides from the storm. --Whiplash (talk) 17:03, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hoped the death count would be like Franklin...I guess not. :'( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:29, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Remnants of this crossed the Pacific Ocean and then regenerated to 15-E. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 00:03, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Eastern Atlantic
Bruh. 0/20. Let's see if this develops will be a weakling if so. --Whiplash (talk) 00:08, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * I don't think this will be a weakling. I think this storm will be Lee, and could be a minimal hurricane. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:38, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

If this becomes Lee, I hope it doesn't become something major. Two reasons

1.) We've had enough already with hurricanes.

And 2.) Kind of a selfish reason, but I'd prefer for my name to stay on the list for a while longer.

If it became a minimal hurricane, I wouldn't mind. It would be cool to see a Hurricane Lee. I'm biased, I know. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 02:33, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Models show a fish, so don't worry. :) ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:20, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

If it's a fish, then I want it to become a category 5. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 03:40, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * I want to see your name be a Category 5 if it's a fishspinner too. That'll be really cool. :3 (I want to make that face.) Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:16, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Leeboy, I hope your name is used for a fish C5! :D But I'm not sure if it can do that, because for one, fishspinning C5's have actually never occurred before in this basin (some 1950's-60's "fishspinning C5's" were downgraded in post-analysis). But that would be absolutely fantastic. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:17, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally shows up on map at 2 AM,a 10/30 chance.12.144.5.2 06:10, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * On the 2-day TWO with a 20/40 chance. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 17:59, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope it's a powerful fishspinner. :D Future-Lee shall stay away from land. Had enough of devastating hurricanes. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:31, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

Go, future-Lee, go! :D Leeboy100 Beware Irma and Jose's fury.. 20:01, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

The 8 PM TWO came out a little early and upped its chances to 30/50.Will it stay content to spin fish?12.144.5.2 23:43, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 30/60. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 07:16, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * The NHC 5-day outlook is showing a track that curves northwestward, putting any land at ease. It would be cool if this is a major hurricane fishspinner, or even a C5 fishspinner (unlikely as that has never occurred in the Atlantic before). I don't know if environmental conditions will support such a powerful hurricane though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:16, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 40/50.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 00:46, September 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Chances now DOWN to 30/30.12.144.5.2 14:17, September 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, it flopped for some reason.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:31, September 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20.20...pfft...12.144.5.2 23:04, September 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10...I think some other AoI will have to apply for the Lee job.12.144.5.2 00:34, September 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * What a flop, to be honest... Lee will have to wait. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:56, September 12, 2017 (UTC)

Huh. Well again, whatever becomes Lee, I hope it won't be too bad. We've had enough destruction. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's fury, Never Forget. 04:10, September 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sigh, the Atlantic is sleeping again due to a Pacific depression and two disturbances. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:30, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Not really. Jose is still out there, and could last for a while to come. But the Atlantic is just getting tired, due to all the strong activity since Harvey. :P ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:48, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 04:28, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Central Atlantic
Another area of invest is up on the TWO, this is at 10/30 for 5 days as it heads westward towards the Antilles. Could be something to watch out for down the road. Ryan1000 23:59, September 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * The due westward path for this wave in particular is concerning even if it doesn't become anything in the Atlantic any waves like this getting into the overheated Caribbean at the moment could be a risk for becoming another major storm. --Whiplash (talk) 04:47, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/40. Ryan1000 11:51, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/60, and expected to follow in the wake of where Irma and Jose RI'd over. Hopefully the upwelled water in the wake of those two storms keeps this from getting too strong down the road. Ryan1000 12:07, September 14, 2017 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
It's now invested...AL, 96, 2017091412,, BEST, 0, 85N, 330W, 20, 1012, DB. Ryan1000 12:33, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * At 20/70, and I expect this to be Maria. It appears that, along with Jose, it could affect Irma recovery areas in the northeastern Caribbean. I really hope that upwelled water in the wake of Irma and Jose keep to-be Lee/Maria from getting too powerful. Otherwise, if the upwelled water ends up not being enough, we could deal with another destructive monster. That better not happen... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:40, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * This storm is the worrisome one. Although the other one will develop first there is a good likelihood this will be another major once it reaches the Caribbean. If this gets south of Cuba we could have our second Cat 5 of the year if atmosphere conditions are good as those waters are EXTREMELY toasty. --Whiplash (talk) 23:25, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 30/70. I think this will be Maria since 97L will be Lee. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 00:08, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/80. It would suck for the Lessers to get a third potential strike or close call this season after the hell that Irma put them through, but still, this bears watching. The latest few runs of the GFS have taken this into or on the eastern tip of Hispaniola before eventually moving to a landfall in South Carolina as a strong hurricane way down the road, but it's still too soon to tell. Ryan1000 02:28, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 40/80. Future-Maria is looking dangerous in the long run imo... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:30, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * 50/90, this will maybe become Maria. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:26, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70/90!"Tropical cyclone expected to form over the weekend."12.144.5.2 18:35, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * 80/90 at the 8 PM TWO.12.144.5.2 01:58, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * 90/90, this will be 16L/Lee (or Maria) shortly. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:35, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen
Just formed with winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1008 mbar. T G  2 0 1 7 14:55, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Forecast to become a TS but why isn't it a depression?12.144.5.2 16:33, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen
Discuss this storm here. --Roblox543


 * Tropical storm watches have spread across the Lesser Antilles.12.144.5.2 18:02, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Depending on how the models play out it looks like this likely will be retirement candidate number 3. Both the Euro and GFS suggest another major hurricane strike on the U.S. Have to say Maria is my favorite name on this list so not sure what I think of her being a potentially destructive storm. Also if the forecast does play out I believe this would be the first year potentially where two names are retired that start with the same letter other than I? Maybe the start of an M curse? --Whiplash (talk) 18:39, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * 5-day NHC forecast seems to level off before reaching Cat 2.12.144.5.2 19:13, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is a late response, but for what it's worth Whiplash, two consecutive 'C' names (Carol and Connie) were retired after 1954 and 1955, and then 2003 and 2004 each had their respective 'F' (Fabian, Frances) and 'J' (Juan, Jeanne) names retired. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:19, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Thank you, Dylan. I need to brush up on my hurricane trivia. --Whiplash (talk) 20:42, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

So, forecasts only take this up to 90 mph, but I have a bad feeling that Future-Maria could explode. I sure do hope I'm wrong. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:15, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * I hope you're wrong as well. This depression scares me. It's forecast to pass through the Leeward Islands and Irma recovery areas as a C1 hurricane, and after that it appears to be another threat to the U.S. Stay tuned for what could be our 3rd real retirement candidate this season. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:14, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Maria
Upgraded, and 50 mph/1002 mbars. Now forecast to become a major hurricane directly striking Puerto Rico. Maria is our 3rd real retirement candidate, I can see it already... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:49, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Here we go. Hope Maria isn't as bad as feared. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:55, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 50 mph already? Shes strengthening quickly. I think she is going to be another nightmare storm shes gonna bust straight through the Caribbean islands and then charge right at the US East Coast as a significant hurricane. I made the prediction there would be 1 more storm during Irma when she was occurring, looks like Maria is going to be that storm and hopefully the last one for the season. --Whiplash (talk) 21:01, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Satellite images suggest eye wall is forming looks like Maria is undergoing rapid intensification. Might be a hurricane by next advisory. This storm already looks very impressive on satellite. I think she will be stronger than the forecast. --Whiplash (talk) 22:16, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is getting REALLY scary. Here comes Irma's sister! :O ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:43, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

I can't take these scary potentially big, potentially destructive hurricanes anymore. Can hurricane season just end extremely early this year? Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 22:48, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

NHC forecast says Maria will peak in four days with 120 mph winds and then weaken.Unfortunately that peak is near Puerto Rico.Meanwhile,Barbuda,devastated by Irma and evacuated for Jose,shares in the Hurricane Watch.12.144.5.2 23:52, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * The global models have depicted a lot of possible scenarios for the east coast with this storm after it passes the Caribbean, the most recent Euro scenario showing Maria and Jose doing a fujiwhara loop around each other as Maria catches up with Jose, another brings this out to sea from Jose's southern outflow, and some runs making this a headlong rush into or around Charleston, SC after Jose heads out to sea. But how and where Jose moves could have a big impact on where Maria goes with the eastern U.S. after Puerto Rico gets hit by this. Ryan1000 00:45, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now this is one storm to watch. Puerto Rico is in danger since Maria is expected to hit it as a major hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:47, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

65 mph, 994 mbars. Forecast to hit Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola (Dominican Republic side) as a major. Maria is now more likely to become the next monster storm of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:48, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * 8AM update: no change in strength. However, Maria is now expected to intensify to a hurricane later today. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:14, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * 11AM: No change at all, except that Maria is now forecast to reach 125 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * After the 125mph peak (which I think appeared overnight) it's expected to weaken,though...12.144.5.2 15:11, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * And hopefully you are right, 12. Maria really needs to weaken significantly after affecting the Antilles to lessen its effects in the United States. We don't need another Harvey or Irma at this point; unfortunately, that still depends on how the Caribbean will take the brunt of this storm — sadly that depends on Maria's intensity, and the SSTs are too conducive to host another major. Meanwhile, the latest Euro run shows that while Jose will still do another loop, Maria will hit the Carolinas as a strong hurricane instead. There's still hope though: this time I'm rooting for the GFS to be accurate (though it has a questionable track record). The latest GFS run I have seen takes both Jose and Maria just offshore the East Coast before recurving east, towards the open Atlantic. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:43, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Recon flight has found 984 pressure with 60 knt winds. Next update should be in 30 minutes. Models have extremely interesting interactions between Jose and this storm and that will likely determine the fate of the Eastern seaboard will have to keep watching Jose not because he is particularly interesting (he isn't anymore) but Fujiwara effect on Maria could be... Also seeing a few models showing a tropical storm Nate coming up in the Gulf after Maria. I believe GFS was showing a little while ago but isn't now the CMC model though still is although it is inaccurate as hell. :) --Whiplash (talk) 20:31, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Maria
Hey fam. 982mb 75mph. --Whiplash (talk) 21:01, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * So, it's a hurricane already. The Windward Islands and Leeward Islands need to prepare for this. And then Puerto Rico could get demolished (hope not). In the long run, Maria is looking like a major east coast threat, unless the interaction with Jose moves Maria safely out to sea. Stay tuned. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:20, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS has now jumped onto the Euro's earlier projection and makes Jose do a loop on or just off the Massachusetts coast and expects Jose's southern outflow recurve Maria off the east coast and out to sea. Unfortunately, the Euro's new run doesn't do a fujiwhara loop with Jose and Maria like it showed before, but now it shows Jose moving out to sea sooner and makes Maria a powerful major hurricane racing northward to a headlong rush into New York or elsewhere in New England, and that's not good. After the horrible devastation wrought by Harvey and Irma, we really don't need to see another devastating hurricane hit the U.S. this year. Hopefully mother nature spares the U.S. from this one down the road (barring Puerto Rico, since it's inevitable they're going to be hit by Maria at this point). Ryan1000 22:35, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Maria, no. Be a good hurricane. Bad hurricanes get their names retired, and live on in infamy. Plus, we need a break. Unfortunately, it looks like Maria won't give us a break. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 23:48, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Please Maria. Please. DON'T BE ANOTHER IRMA. People are fed up with this already. blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 23:51, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * I agree. Sick of these monsters that go and murder people and destroy everything that crosses their path. :/ Maria looks to be one of those. I really want a break from these already. Harvey and Irma did enough. Unfortunately, Maria looks like she will be evil and bad like Irma, although she won't get as strong as Irma unless a miracle happens. Behave, Maria. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:12, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * You heard 'em,Maria.STAY AWAY FROM LAND.It does bad things for your circulation,leaves you weak and dissipated,and the people whose stuff you throw around are just gonna hate you for it.(80 mph winds now).12.144.5.2 00:15, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Looks like the islands of Guadeloupe (one of the Caribbean's most populated islands at 405,000) or Dominica (pop. 70,000) are going to take a direct hit from this thing as a Cat 2/3. Not gonna be pretty, lets start the replacement name section. --Whiplash (talk) 00:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lots of convection in the satellite imagery. Maybe will be a Cat 2 by the next advisory? --Whiplash (talk) 01:38, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * 11 PM advisory says 85 mph winds...but accompanying forecast says it will peak in 3 days at 140mph while over Puerto Rico,then weaken after that.So PR is in for a direct hit from a Cat 4.12.144.5.2 03:15, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Please don't be Re-Irma. We had enough destruction for the year. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:01, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maria is doing well tonight. Statistical intensity tools show high % chance of Rapid Intensification of her ...notable 65-knot increase to Cat 5 (34% chance). Imagine another Category 5 this year - potentially 3 if Jose gets upgraded post-season. HWRF has Maria at 930 mbar in 42 hours. Looks like this will be the first season since 2008 to have more than two retirements. Not out of question we will have four considering how disastrous and active this season has been - and we still have the rest of the month, October, November, and the possibility of an off-season December system. Maria will be another monster that bears watching! Owen 05:24, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

An eye can be seen trying to form on some of the IR loops. I'm not liking the looks of this. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 05:48, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Also, the new advisory just came out. Winds now at 90 mph, pressure at 977. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 05:52, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS MARIA INTENSIFYING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
 * Now a Cat. 2. Intensity at 110 mph/967 mbar. Expected to be a major hurricane later today. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Maria
Well, its well on track to become a re-Irma. Just exploded to 105 kt. This will be catastrophic for the Lessers. --182.58.123.138 15:07, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Okay, bye Maria. You're out of this list after this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:09, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) 105 kts, 959 mbar, forecast peak raised to 130 kts. With Dominica looking like a potential bullseye for Maria on its way into the Caribbean Sea, I can't help but wonder how much Dominica has recovered from TS Erika back in 2015... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:11, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Puerto Rico is under the track,but no longer specified in the forecast as where it will be at a particular hour mark.But now Maria's peak is supposed to be over 2 days from now and the track appears to stay at sea east of the northern Bahamas.12.144.5.2 15:52, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Maria's very dangerous. Had enough of monsters, and she is unfortunately going to be another one of those. The Windward Islands, Lesser Antilles, Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico are bracing for potentially catastrophic damage. This is almost looking like a re-Irma. Like Dylan said, Maria won't help Erika '15 rebuilding efforts in Dominica... Maria could once again setback development there. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:24, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Landslides and flooding being reported on the island of St. Lucia. People trapped. This gonna get ugly she may even be Cat 4 for her first landfall. Looks like that is going to be on Dominica. Martinique and Guadeloupe also likely going to take a major beating as well. --Whiplash (talk) 16:57, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Most recent recon data showing winds just shy of 115 knts. Heading for another pass may very well be a Category 4 by next update. Hasn't made landfall yet either. Category 5 looking more likely by the minute with this thing. --Whiplash (talk) 17:09, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Most recent pass showing winds of 122-127knts. Maria is probably a Category 4 right now and intensifying rapidly. --Whiplash (talk) 17:21, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * 2 PM advisory says 125mph and 45 miles from Martinique.Pressure in hurricane continuing to fall,pressure on humans continuing to rise!12.144.5.2 18:24, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Unfortunately, a Category 5 is now looking likely from this. (feels weird that this is the third time I'm saying that this season.) Also, a little bit of trivia, if Maria does become a Cat 5, it will be the second year in a row where the 'M' named storm was a Category 5. This has happened before, with Isabel in 2003, and then Ivan the next year. I hope this doesn't become a C5, because we've already had Irma, and Jose if he's upgraded in post-season analysis. People in the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico should be preparing. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:18, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Weird realization just hit me. Jose is Spanish for Joseph and Maria is Spanish for Mary. If they interact will they make hurricane Jesus? --Whiplash (talk) 19:27, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Eh...probs not. But anyways, Maria is rapidly organizing, and she's forecast to hit Puerto Rico as a 150 mph category 4 storm right now, but if Maria intensifies fast enough then it's not impossible at all for Maria to hit category 5 intensity before her landfall in Puerto Rico, which would, if that happens, not only be the second category 5 to hit the island on record after the 1928 hurricane, but it would also make 2017 the second year on record after 2007 to have two category 5 landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. Ryan1000 20:30, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I Was trying to make a joke. I realize now it isn't funny. I'm sorry... :'( --Whiplash (talk) 20:34, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose would have to be retired to give us Hurricane Jesus...but wouldn't that refer to El Nino?12.144.5.2 21:07, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Anyways, looking at the satellite the cloud temperatures in this thing are extremely concerning (-80C already) this thing it taking the appearance of being at high end Cat 4 or Cat 5 strength already. This is going to be a catastrophe for Dominica and Martinique. --Whiplash (talk) 20:45, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

As I type this, the new advisory has come out, 110 kts, 950 mbars. Maria is now a Category 4. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:49, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * If we get one more Cat 4+ hurricane this season we will tie 1999 and 2005's records. Quite possible this could happen too. If a single wave gets into the Caribbean we could have another monster after Maria. --Whiplash (talk) 20:51, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Whiplash, if we do tie the record, I find it ironic that all three of these seasons have used the exact same name list.... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:54, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * The naming list is cursed, alright. The peak intensity forecast is raised to 155 mph, and a C5 is really possible. This is about to be catastrophic for Puerto Rico and surrounding regions... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:59, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * If enough names get retired is it still the same list?...Puerto Rico escaped Irma but Maria seems intent on a direct hit.Forecast says Maria's strength will never recover afterward though.12.144.5.2 21:07, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Uhhh. Satellite images showing Maria might have just activated beast mode look at that pink. --Whiplash (talk) 21:06, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Only previous time I've seen the NHC use the language "the dreaded pinhole eye" was for Wilma...whose winds reached 185mph and whose pressure low is still the Atlantic record.Let's hope Maria leaves those records alone.12.144.5.2 21:09, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Is it just me, or does Maria feel almost like a cross between David and Marilyn? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:13, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Looks like this storm is going to make landfall on the northern part of Dominica in a few hours however the northeastern part of the storm will likely effect Guadeloupe and may pass directly over Basse-Terre the administrative center of the island with a population of 37,000 people. Retirement number 3 confirmed won't even need to hit Puerto Rico with these circumstances. Another catastrophe in the Caribbean unfortunately. :( --Whiplash (talk) 21:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

When does it get within radar range of San Juan so we'll get hourly position updates?12.144.5.2 21:35, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Looking at the IR loops, Maria already looks like a Category 5. This is bad. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 21:56, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Also, just a reminder of how fast Maria has intensified. At the 5 AM advisory this morning, Maria was only a Category 1 with winds of 90 mph, at the 5 PM advisory it was a Category 4 with winds of 130 mph. That's a 40 mph increase in 12 hours. In that same 12 hour period the pressure dropped 27 mbars.... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 22:03, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria is developing a pinhole eye and is intensifying extremely fast, Dominica is staring at a monster landfall right now and Maria could be the worst storm to hit the island since David. NHC's forecast now brings Maria up to 155 mph before hitting Puerto Rico, but cat 5 is very possible with this. Hopefully Maria spares the U.S. east coast after this, because after the carnage wrought by Irma barely two weeks ago, this is bad enough. Ryan1000 22:27, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 6 PM  position update (35 miles from Dominica and 35 miles from Martinique) courtesy of radar on Martinique indicates winds and pressure are unchanged from 5PM...so intensification may be levelling off.NHC tracks don't have it near the USA mainland,does anyone?12.144.5.2 22:47, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 6 PM is just position not intensity. Next intensity update for another hour. They have recon going in right now. I will absolutely not be surprised to see Maria now being a Cat 5. --Whiplash (talk) 23:05, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensity adjustments can be made on position updates; Harvey last month was upgraded to Category 4 status on a position update. My suspicion is they're waiting for recon to come back with data before updating the intensity. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:09, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * The good news if any from this situation is that since Maria's circulation is so small and Dominica has quite high elevation even any interaction with that island might cause some noticeable weakening in Maria. --Whiplash (talk) 23:16, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 7 PM position update continued to have winds and pressure unchanged from 5 PM.12.144.5.2 23:21, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

What worries me about Maria more than anything is what it could do to Dominica. It was 2 years ago where Dominica was devastated by Erika, which was a tropical storm. Erika was considered the worst storm in Dominican history. If they suffer that much from a tropical storm, I don't even want to know what a direct hit from a Category 4 would do. Unfortunately we're about to find out, as Maria inches closer and closer to the island. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 23:26, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 6 minutes until recon data this is big then we will get to see how strong she really is. --Whiplash (talk) 23:32, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Preliminary report says that hurricane hunters have found winds of 160 mph in the Northeast quadrant of the eyewall. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 23:39, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Maria
926mbar with 160mph winds according to recon. R.I.P. Dominica. Reports coming in from radio that structures are already being destroyed on the island. Catastrophe is imminent. --Whiplash (talk) 23:35, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also should mention this from the NORTHWEST part of the storm not the northeast. Seeing some readings with 152knts. Pardon my French but what the f**k... --Whiplash (talk) 23:44, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sigh, RIP Dominica. Maria is a monstrous hurricane that will strike Dominica and Puerto Rico. Not yet confirmed by NHC as a 5, but either away, this is going to be a disastrous hurricane.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 23:48, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Now confirmed. RIP Dominica. This is so f***ing scary. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 23:49, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lord mercy, we officially now have another Category 5 hurricane that is really wreaking Dominica. This is going to be a freaking devastating hurricane season. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 23:57, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is awful. I thought David and Erika were bad, but I can't even imagine what this will do to Dominica. I think it is safe to say that the "M" curse has just begun. Beware the 13th named storm... T  G  2 0 1 7 23:59, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * 7:45PM update from NHC had Maria's pressure at 929mb rather than 926,so has a corner turned against further intensification?...Maria has obviously blown off our entreaties to leave people alone.12.144.5.2 00:03, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nope, forecast/advisory just released has the pressure at 925 mbar. Keep the folks in Dominica in your thoughts... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:05, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * "additional strengthening possible tonight",too.:(12.144.5.2 00:06, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * 925 mbars, not 926. But still, this is now the first year since 2007 to not only feature two category 5 hurricanes, but two category 5's to make landfall at category 5 strength, assuming Maria hits Dominica at this intensity and later Puerto Rico. With winds this strong, Maria may even be worse for Dominica than 150 mph David was in August 1979. Pray that they'll make it out safe... Ryan1000 00:20, September 19, 2017 (UTC)\

Maria has broken a record involving the naming lists. The list that has had the most Category 5s is List II. Allen, Andrew Mitch, Ivan, and Matthew, all became Category 5s. However, Maria is now the 6th Category 5 seen on List III. Also, all the Category 5s on this list have happened in only 2 different seasons, with 4 being in 2005, and now 2 this year. Also, Jose could get upgraded in post-season analysis as well. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 00:34, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * The lesson is don't mess with the ladies of List III and the gentlemen of List II! --Whiplash (talk) 00:37, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * ...EYEWALL OF CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MARIA MOVING ONSHORE OVER DOMINICA...it's hard to believe that we were only tracking a category 1 storm at this time yesterday and now Maria's a cat 5. Maria really caught us (and Dominica) by surprise, and due to her explosive deepening right before landfall, preparations had to be rushed to completion in a matter of hours on the island. Hopefully loss of life isn't as bad as damage could be. Ryan1000 01:04, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall on Dominica
Satellite imagery showing Western eye-wall beginning to move over Dominica. Looks like will be making more southerly landfall on the island that earlier though good news for Guadeloupe which may avoid the worst winds by Dominica is now going to face hell. Does anyone know if Dominica has ever had a Category 5 make landfall on it? --Whiplash (talk) 00:21, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * I do, and the answer is "no". I think David's 130-kt landfall was previously the strongest. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:36, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Pardon the question Klotzbach just posted on his Twitter that this will be Dominica's first Category 5. Any wobble of this storm north could be the difference between widespread and catastrophic damage to Guadeloupe as it really isn't that big of a storm about the size of the island of Dominica which apparently it is making landfall in the middle of. --Whiplash (talk) 00:36, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * I believe David made landfall on Dominica as a Category 5. I'm not sure though, I'll have to go back and check. This is an extremely rare event though. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 00:37, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Just went back and checked. David was a Category 4 at landfall. So, this is indeed the first time this has ever happened. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 00:40, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lord have mercy. Maria is actually 12 mbar from eclisping Irma as the strongest hurricane of the season pressure-wise. Owen 00:54, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * 9PM position update 5 miles from Dominica and pressure at 924mb.12.144.5.2 01:00, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Has it been mentioned here that the novel "The Storm" and its descendant the "Paint Your Wagon" song "They Call the Wind Maria" (with Maria pronounced funny at the author's direction) is a key inspiration for the whole practice of hanging personal names on storms?12.144.5.2 01:34, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * The first hurricane ever to hit Dominica as a Category 5, Maria is not done yet. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:39, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * According to reports the roof of the Prime Minister's residence (of Dominica) has been ripped off. --Whiplash (talk) 01:37, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is one of the worst hurricane seasons I've ever seen. First, a Category 4 that parks itself off of texas for over half a week, dumping 50 inches of rain, forcing me to be displaced. Next, a 185 mph Category 5 that stayed 185 mph for a day, destroying every square inch of land in it's path, and, in one place, causing the ocean to recede as far as the human eye can see. Now, a second Category 5 over Dominica, and threatening other Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico. Wow. Stay safe! PS: Flooding from Harvey was the reason why I haven't said anything in a while. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:39, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also having some people saying that Q95 FM the radio station on Dominica suggested that residents should open up windows of their houses to equalize pressure and prevent their roofs from coming off. Wtf, that will really get people's roofs blown off. --Whiplash (talk) 01:41, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ikr, I had enough of destruction for the year. This is going to be as worst as 2005.  I hope that 2018 will not be as worst as this year.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! - 68.106.0.77 01:47, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Forecast peak 165mph but expected to steadily weaken after the 24 hour mark.12.144.5.2 02:55, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now the 11PM advisory removes that 165mph peak and lowers the 5-day to 115 mph.12.144.5.2 02:58, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

And The Guardian says that NHC has observed a pinhole eye developing... this is going to be worse than Irma... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:58, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * FUU**... This is a really catastrophic monster. Dominica is getting demolished by Maria as we speak. I didn't expect it would reach C5 strength this soon! The Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico are also going to get pounded by this cataclysmic beast. And to think about how Erika (a tropical storm) did to Dominica, a C5 striking is likely going to be  MUCH WORSE . 2017 has been a really catastrophic year for Atlantic hurricanes. First Harvey, then Irma, and now this... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:34, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Satellite is showing the eye is moving off of Dominica this is good news from them and soon the worst will be over. However, the satellite is also showing a rather sharp northwest wobble which could bring the eyewall dangerously close to the southern parts of Guadeloupe. This could send major storm surge into the southern part of that island particularly into the city of Basse-Terre as it passes. Once it moves away from these two islands there should not be any more immediate threats until it begins to approach St. Croix and Puerto Rico on Wed. I'm pretty sure though after the damage is revealed on Dominica and Guadeloupe Maria is good as gone at the next WMO meeting. --Whiplash (talk) 03:51, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * As I mentioned earlier I felt that Dominica might knock some of the snot out of this storm. Latest recon suggesting storm has weakened by 15mph with wind and pressure risen by nearly 20mb. Should be a Cat 4 on next advisory. Hopefully this land interaction screws with the structure like Cuba did to Irma though Maria has way more time than Irma to re-intensify and lost a lot less strength. --Whiplash (talk) 04:11, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

According to the Guardian the Prime Minister of Dominica has been reported saying this in an interview to TeleSur:

"Please tell the world that Dominica has been devastated … In the morning we will know how many dead there are … We were brutally hit."

Scary. --Whiplash (talk) 04:49, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Holy shit. I don't like the sound of that. Also, unfortunately, I don't think that Irma Maria will lose very much strength over Dominica. Yes it's mountainous, but Maria wasn't over it for long. However, I won't be surprised if an ERC starts to take place due to how tiny the eye is. I just hope it doesn't continue to explode. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 04:54, September 19, 2017 (UTC) (You know there's been a lot of big hurricanes in a short amount of time when I start confusing hurricanes with each other.)


 * New 0Hr models are out. Both GFS and CMC show Maria curving away from Eastern United States and then into Atlantic Canada as a still fairly significant storm. Plz no Maria I don't want to meet youuuuuuuuuuuu... --Whiplash (talk) 05:10, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * The "pinhole eye" language was a couple of advisories ago,before it reached Cat 5.The NHC forecast show only weakening from the current strength,no intensification.12.144.5.2 05:15, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * The NHC is wrong then as Maria has already started to re-intensify since leaving Dominica. --Whiplash (talk) 05:18, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

(Edit conflict) By the way, I just cannot believe how this season immediately took a turn for the worst when Harvey started to explode. I still remember how it was almost just a year ago, we were on here discussing Matthew becoming the first Atlantic C5 in almost a decade. Maria is now the third in just a 2-year span, maybe even the fourth C5 in that span considering the fact that Jose could get upgraded. Also, knowing how crazy this season has been, we could see another C5 in October, hopefully not another Mitch or Wilma, though. This whole season has just become unbelievable. This season is kind of like 2005 in terms of how unbelievable and destructive it's been, though not in terms of activity. I don't think we'll tie or surpass 2005's activity, but what do I know? I've eaten my words several times this season already. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 05:22, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sigh, Dominica is devastated within this hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:30, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Media coming out of Guadeloupe also now getting pretty scary as well. See: --Whiplash (talk) 05:35, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Maria (2nd time)
Down to 155mph and 942mb as of the 2am advisory. Will re-intensify however does look Dominica put up a good fight and tried to knock at least some of the stuffing out of this beeeeeeeeaaaatch. --Whiplash (talk) 05:41, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria has only slightly slipped in intensity, the forecast brings Maria back up to cat 5 soon but weakens it to cat 4 before hitting Puerto Rico. Hopefully that's the case, because Dominica got destroyed by this hurricane, and a cat 5 in Puerto Rico is the last thing we need to see. Ryan1000 08:17, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory. Winds still 135 kts, but the pressure has dropped 8 millibars to 934. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 08:54, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Maria (2nd time)
Ummm, okay. 5:10 AM advisory. Back to a Category 5, which is not surprising. What is surprising is the timing of the advisory though. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 09:08, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

8AM advisory has winds steady and pressure slightly back up.Forecast wind speed,as since they stopped forecasting a 165mph peak,goes only down from 160 (Puerto Rico now set for 145) and is down to 115 by the 5-day mark.12.144.5.2 13:28, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria such an impressive looking storm on satellite. See some models moving her slightly to the east of Puerto Rico and smacking St. Croix and the Virgin Islands head on instead. While this is exactly what the VI do not need right now they do have a lower population than Puerto Rico. --Whiplash (talk) 14:19, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA HEADED FOR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
 * Be prepared Puerto Rico! Because, a Category 5 hurricane is on its way of making landfall there. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:28, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pressure down slightly at 11 AM,but the 5 day wind forecast is down to 110 mph as the track pulls it far from land.12.144.5.2 15:09, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 2 PM,winds and pressure unchanged from 11 AM...110 miles from St. Croix.12.144.5.2 18:01, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Maria's outer rainbands are beginning to affect Puerto Rico and the British Virgin Islands as we speak. The regions are set to receive catastrophic impacts hot on the heels of Irma just a couple weeks ago. Puerto Rico was largely spared from Irma - but certainly won't be spared from Maria. This is a catastrophic event unfolding for Puerto Rico. Dominica has already seen the brunt of the storm and the Prime Minister said that it caused "mind boggling" damage and the island experienced "widespread devastation", and his own house had its roof blown off. This is probably certain to be worse than Erika. Roosevelt Skerrit, the prime minister, has made several Facebook posts about the storm, including a long post that explains the devastation. Pray for Dominica and other Caribbean islands in its path... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:11, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Update has Maria at 165 mph/920 mb now. Kiewii 18:19, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maria is now 6 mbar from tying Irma, or 7 mbar away from stealing Irma's spot as the most powerful hurricane of the season (pressure-wise).  Owen 18:25, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * There'd be something seriously wrong with the Saffir-Simpson Scale if a Category 5 were not more damaging than a tropical storm.
 * Maria...nobody's gonna love you for being a blowhard.You're looking at forced retirement.12.144.5.2 18:52, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 3PM,winds and pressure steady from the 2:15 special,and 100 miles from St. Croix.12.144.5.2 19:03, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * 5 PM advisory is out, 165 mph and 916 mbars. Maria is now only 3 mbars away from beating Irma as the strongest storm of the season by pressure. Ryan1000 20:59, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * 80 miles from St. Croix.Hints of eyewall replacement but winds forecast to hold steady for 12 hours.
 * Maria,the less pressure you try to put on people the more stressed they'll get.Humans and hurricanes just weren't made to be neighbors.12.144.5.2 21:08, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Maria is kind of reminding me of Ivan. The winds are only 165 mph, despite the pressure being very low. Ivan was a similar case, it had winds of 165 as well, and a pressure of 910. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 21:35, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

6 PM update has pressure down to 913mb (26.96inHg).12.144.5.2 22:06, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria just overtook Irma as the strongest of the season by pressure. Wow. Owen 22:14, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, you beat me to it Owen. Hard to believe that we now have a storm stronger than Irma by pressure. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 22:17, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Pressure now 909. Holy shit, that puts in into the list of the top 10 most intense Atlantic hurricanes. Winds also now 175. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 23:01, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Maria just keeps blowing off our advice to calm down.12.144.5.2 23:03, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

I looked up the list. Maria is the 10th most intense Atlantic Hurricane on record. It took the spot from Ivan, and the 1924 Cuba Hurricane, both of which peaked with pressures of 910, and knocking them off the list completely. This is getting worse and worse. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 23:07, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria might make a run for 185 mph before this is all said and done. I'm shocked she was able to deepen this much. Can't rule out seeing our first sub 900 mbar system since 2005! Owen 23:54, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * 8 PM advisory reports no change in wind or pressure from 7PM...maybe the eyewall replacement is taking hold.12.144.5.2 00:00, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * One dropsonde has record surface level winds of 168knts... (193 mph) at surface level... --Whiplash (talk) 00:17, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <span style="color:rgb(42,46,46);font-family:"HelveticaNeue",arial,sans-serif;font-size:15px;font-weight:normal;">921mb (27.20 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.6°C (78.1°F) 24.8°C (77°F) 315° (from the NW) 168 knots (193 mph)


 * You beat me to it, Whiplash. Owen 00:20, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * The potentially dangerous hurricane is nearing Puerto Rico. Preparations are already underway in that area.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 00:49, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 9PM update has Maria 50 miles from St. Croix...with 175 mph winds and 909mb pressure unchanged for the past two hours.Looks like no more intensification.12.144.5.2 01:04, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 10 PM still no change in wind or pressure,40 miles from St. Croix.It looks like it's a peak intensity plateau.12.144.5.2 02:02, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * While she has plateaued the 175 mph winds are an underestimate the NHC is not updating until the next recon flight goes in. However measurements from the radar of Puerto Rico is already detecting 180mph winds around the eye. Likely it has weakened a bit as it very likely had 190mph wins shortly ago. --Whiplash (talk) 02:13, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 11 PM advisory has the same wind speeds it's been credited with since 7PM...same pressure too...and the discussion indicates the eyewall replacement they saw starting at 5PM is now well underway.The forecast is nonstop weakening getting down to Cat 2 (105mph) by the 5-day mark.12.144.5.2 03:14, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

...1200 AM AST POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REPORTED ON ST. CROIX...
 * The midnight advisory has the winds the same but pressure 1 more down to 908 mb. St. Croix recently reported 74 mph+ winds. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 04:09, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Who asked Maria to drop that millibar?...just her way of cozying up to Mitch & Dean on the all-time charts.12.144.5.2 04:13, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * More bad news with this storm. The GFS model is now steering the storm ever closer to an east coast landfall some of the models are now picking up on a stronger ridge to the North and East of the storm and a weaker Jose. Even if she doesn't make landfall on the U.S. East Coast (likely as a Cat 2 or 3 in this scenario) anywhere from North Caroline to New York. Personally I think Jose's influence will be weaker than the models and she will make landfall in the Norfolk, Virginia area. This is what I've been feeling about her since the start. --Whiplash (talk) 04:16, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also Maria is now blitzing St. Croix with Category 3 winds sustained around 115mph. Luckily they shouldn't get much stronger for them but this will still be destructive on that island... but Puerto Rico looks like its gonna get the real deal here. --Whiplash (talk) 04:20, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Just heard a report that Maria has wobbled northward enough towards St. Croix that the southwestern extreme of the island should now be experiencing sustained winds of 165mph. RIP. --Whiplash (talk) 04:58, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * New advisory is out gone to 910mbar no change in winds. Appears full on ERC is underway. Not sure if that is good or bad in this case tbh as it is expanding her wind field. --Whiplash (talk) 05:03, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

1 AM update says "OUTER EYEWALL LASHING ST. CROIX" but the pressure has eased up to 910mb.The weakening may have started at last.12.144.5.2 05:04, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Some people smarter than myself are saying that the ERC Maria is undergoing now may cause a demotion to a Cat 4, even though with pressure remaining around 910. This would make it the lowest pressure Cat 4 ever I believe surpassing Opal if this turns out to be the case? --Whiplash (talk) 05:25, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * The hurricane is weakening, hopefully. It will strike Puerto Rico as a strong Category 4 or Cat. 5. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:36, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Still a Category 5. Winds have come down, though. 165 mph/ 910 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 05:58, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hopefully she does not get a chance to complete her ERC before landfall last thing we need is both a larger wind radius AND higher winds. Anyways this is probably my last post for the night won't be on again til she probably makes landfall. Ciao for now. --Whiplash (talk) 05:59, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * 3 AM:160 mph winds,913 mbar,70 miles from San Juan (some of that distance over land).Hurricane conditions in St. Croix and tropical storm conditions already in parts of Puerto Rico.12.144.5.2 07:19, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Maria (3rd time)
Whiplash, Opal had the lowest pressure of any Atlantic category 4 that didn't reach category 5 strength. Since Maria did become a category 5, it wouldn't be surprising to see Maria's pressure be slightly lower than Opal's just before or after it hits Puerto Rico. There were quite a few Atlantic hurricanes that had lower pressures during their weakening stages, and Maria is no exception. The lowest pressure from any category 4 storm in the Atlantic (including those that were cat 5's beforehand) was Wilma; in the best track, Wilma's pressure was 894 mbars as a 155 mph cat 4 just after she weakened from her record-peak intensity. Anyways, it looks like St. Croix got the northern eyewall of Maria, so they probably took a beating from the storm, maybe not as bad as Hugo did in 1989 but still very bad nonetheless. Puerto Rico will probably be hit this afternoon. As I type this, Maria has now weakened to a 155 mph, 917 mbar cat 4 just before landfall but that would still make it one of only 4 cat 4's to hit the island, along with the 1932, 1899, and 1928 hurricanes, the last of which was the only cat 5 to strike the island. Ryan1000 09:04, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Interesting thanks for the info. Anyways looks like Maria has made landfall. --Whiplash (talk) 10:28, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall on Puerto Rico
It's happening. San Juan weather station has been taken out. Looks like this is going to be a catastrophe. --Whiplash (talk) 10:28, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well... at least Maria had the courtesy to weaken a bit before landfall... better 135 kts than 150, I guess? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:36, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Update statement just released. Landfall near Yabucoa around 6:15am AST (10:15 UTC). Striking Puerto Rico with a pressure of 917 mbar, I'm curious about where this places Maria on the list of most intense Atlantic landfalls... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:39, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * According to this, if Maria's landfall pressure of 917 mbar is verified in the best track, then it would rank Maria as the 8th most intense Atlantic hurricane at landfall. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:43, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10 AM position update makes Maria over Northern Puerto Rico. It should get out to sea any minute now. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:25, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * 11 AM advisory says not quite out to sea yet,140mph/930mb,now a forecast of 48 hours as cat 4 no more than 145mph and then down to 105 by the end of forecast period.12.144.5.2 15:05, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is a really worrying storm that could be a catastrophic hurricane for Puerto Rico. Maria's the strongest hurricane since 1928 to make landfall there. I hope those riding out the storm stay safe and protected. At least 2,000 of those in Puerto Rico have sought shelter. Hopefully there are no deaths in the area, but that is probably going to be hard to achieve due to Maria's sheer force. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:34, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am happy to report that Puerto Rico did a number on Maria. 2pm intermediate advisory drops the winds all the way down to 100 kts, and raises the pressure to 961 mbar. Here's hoping that more weakening shall follow. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:05, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maria's eye seems to have appeared again on sattelite imagery, and has organized a bit more since she left PR recently, so Maria may crank up intensity one last time before she weakens for good passing parallel and then likely away from the U.S. east coast down the road. Also Dylan, with Maria being on that list, 2017 is now the only Atlantic hurricane season on record to have two of the top 10 most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricanes. Ryan1000 19:53, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

So now that Maria is offshore we should start looking at potential impacts from the rains in Hispanola. Hopefully nothing to drastic although I'm watching the models move her ever so slightly more west-ward. Wondering if we could see a North Carolina landfall. --Whiplash (talk) 20:26, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Maria (2nd time)
Maria has dropped below major hurricane status. 110 mph/957 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 20:44, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Oh, and Whiplash, this response is pretty late, but the lowest pressure from a Category 4, that later became a Category 5, was Wilma. The advisory before it was upgraded to a C5 had it as a C4 with a pressure of 901 millibars. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 20:48, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Also, I'm hearing that 100% of Puerto Rico is without power. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 20:50, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * I mentioned before that Wilma had 894 mbars in pressure as a high-end cat 4 just after it weakened from a cat 5, but it's a record either way. Maria is starting to expand in size as well, she could intensify to a major again as she heads northwest, but the late-end of the forecast track shows an eastward trend, hopefully it continues to trend east down the road. Ryan1000 21:10, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep. I noticed your post right after I posted mine. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 21:27, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maria weakens again, but expected to be a major as it gets closer to the Bahamas, and then weaken back below major. 9 deaths so far from this hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 22:37, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * 7 of these deaths were from Dominica, an island which has been utterly devastated by Maria. The other 2 is from Guadeloupe; one is from fallen vegetation and the other person was swept out to sea. So far, it seems like there has been no major loss of life in Puerto Rico (and I hope it stays that way). However, power was knocked out to all customers in Puerto Rico which means the whole country is in the dark. :( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * RIP Puerto Rico. Anyways, damage from Maria so far is >$30 billion making the total damage of this season >$162.9 billion. That would surpass 2005's damages by >$4 billion. But the damage totals are unoffical. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:38, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * And that's only for the Caribbean (Dominica, Puerto Rico, etc). :O Looks like we unofficially have the most devastating Atlantic season ever recorded... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:05, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * In terms of damage. Not in lives though. (Thankfully) --Whiplash (talk) 05:35, September 21, 2017 (UTC)

Just wanted to bring something to everyone's attention. Not sure if it is a legit reading or not but there is a gauge on the Rio de la Plata river at the town of Comerio which is showing the river is 62ft ABOVE  flood stage. I hope this is a malfunction or this could be a major loss of life I don't see any word from the area to know what is going on here. --Whiplash (talk) 05:40, September 21, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Maria (4th time)
959mb. 115 mph. Not sure what to say this is kind of expected? Mostly interested in the track right now. --Whiplash (talk) 06:11, September 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Both the GFS and the Euro models still take it out to sea, though they do take Maria making a slight jog west after Jose dissipates before going east, so it could bring heavy surf to the east coast, though a landfall is looking less and less likely. Ryan1000 06:24, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maria!
 * I've just met a 'cane named Maria!
 * And suddenly that name
 * will not be used again...
 * (from EAST COAST STORY)--12.144.5.2 06:40, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't want to believe that $30 billion damage estimate (which, as far as I am aware, doesn't even include Dominica). Surely Maria couldn't have dealt that much damage to Puerto Rico and the USVI, right? :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:31, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm agreeing with you Dylan. $30 billion will put that as the most costliest season ever. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:27, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * With headlines saying the WHOLE Puerto Rico electrical grid was knocked out,the consequences will be dire.Probably won't be much more damage from Maria now,though,track heads out to sea.12.144.5.2 18:12, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still...no trace of an "N" storm,and at this time in 2005 the "R" storm was already a hurricane.12.144.5.2 21:30, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nor do we need any trace of an "N" storm unless it's going to be a fishspinner tbh. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:45, September 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * The world would be a different place if the winds and waves of the tropics were willing to honor requests to limit themselves to fishspinning!...Maria's at 125mph winds and 65 miles from Grand Turk.12.144.5.2 02:56, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

Models been steadily moving this thing West all day. I'm pretty sure it will have some impact on the Carolina coast. --Whiplash (talk) 02:55, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria is approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands, but is not rushing. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:42, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * 45 miles from Grand Turk,going at 7 mph...the 2AM track map has it curved toward the east as it passes the Carolinas.12.144.5.2 06:00, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

Maria's just under Category 4 status, but it's probably going to weaken from here out due to shear. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:58, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria is to the North of Turks and Caicos. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:26, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * 8 PM advisory had pressure lower again,winds still 125 mph.12.144.5.2 01:17, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * The late-period track of Maria brings her doing a zigzag direction near the coastline as the ridge builds back in slightly as Jose moves out, but it's likely another trough will come in after that and recurve Maria out to sea before hitting the U.S. east coast, as both the GFS and Euro have indicated in most of their recent runs. We can't rule out some possible surf impacts on the coastline, but hopefully the mainland U.S. doesn't get a landfall from Maria, Dominica and Puerto Rico were hit badly enough as it is. Ryan1000 02:11, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * 2AM has Maria's pressure the lowest it's been in days,winds still 125mph.12.144.5.2 06:18, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Winds down to 100 knots but pressure is still 952 mb. Unfortunately for North Carolina, the forecast track continues to shift westwards. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:59, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * No Maria, you had enough destruction for your lifespan. Don't you dare hit North Carolina or else I'll get mad at you for hitting that state. I'm hoping for you to move away. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 15:59, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * It better not hit NC. We've had more than enough devastation and we're honestly fed up of it. NHC forecast still has it passing offshore - let's all hope that's the case. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:51, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall from this on North Carolina/Virginia as a Cat 1/2 looking increasingly likely. This shouldn't be a huge deal by any stretch but will result in more power outages and flooding potentially. City of Norfolk should pay particularly close attention. --Whiplash (talk) 20:49, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

NHC says Maria's pressure is down again but predicts a sharp turn away from the Carolina coast on Wednesday.12.144.5.2 21:29, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Phew, now that's a relief. Maria, stay off to sea and don't make landfall, okay? Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:11, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Winds are not increasing,but pressure keeps decreasing (under 28 inches now).12.144.5.2 03:39, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I think it could have a chance to reintensify to 120 mph before the weakening process is expected to begin by Monday. It is looking better organized (the discussion is saying positive things like the cloud pattern getting more organized, etc), and (like you said) it is getting lower in pressure - so I see no reason why Maria can't reintensify a little more. Thankfully, a turn away from North Carolina is forecasted, however direct impacts are still possible on the coastlines. Maria will still cause heavy surf and rip currents, though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:58, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, a trough will likely recurve Maria to the east as it approaches North Carolina, although the Bermuda High will keep Maria heading north or north-northwest until around the time when Maria reaches the outer banks. The track has been shifting slightly westward, however, and the latest few runs of the GFS do show a jog far enough west to Maria reaching a brief landfall on the NC outer banks before turning sharply east and out to sea. We'll see, hopefully it remains at sea though. Ryan1000 06:08, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Maria (3rd time)
Latest advisory downs Maria's intensity to 110 mph and 948 mbars, but she still poses a surf threat to the east coast. Ryan1000 09:39, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * According to Philip Klotzbach, thanks to Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria, this season has already generated more major hurricane days than the whole of 2005. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:44, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I didn't know that until now. Anyway, rip currents are possible in the east coast. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 16:24, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Pressure now falling again in Maria according to dropsonde, and she's looking a bit better on satellite. Her wind field is also expanding greatly, and models seem to be in a good agreement but the path has been just marginally west of north recently. Maybe the path gets deviated 50 miles west if this a trend before re-curve. Huge wind field means NC is going to feel Maria. Owen 17:29, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

What's more impressive about the major days, is that it was exactly one month ago when Harvey started to explode. Harvey was upgraded to a hurricane on August 24th. It became a major the next day. So all of these majors have happened in a span of 1 month. Also, according to Wikipedia, this season's ACE value is the highest since 2005.... Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 22:22, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

Maria continues to weaken. 90 mph. Now a Category 1. Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 02:45, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

This season is insane. Can't believe it has more major hurricane days than 2005. And the ACE value is insane as well. Irma, Jose and Maria are responsible for the large majority of ACE. Maria's current intensity is 90 mph/950 mbars with tropical storm watches up for the NC coast, especially Outer Banks. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:01, September 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * It'll stay a Cat 1 as it gets a little bit close to the NC coast. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:18, September 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria's current structure is pretty weird, with the inner core collapsed, the northwestern part of the circulation exposed, and relatively weak yet expansive convective bands on the eastern part. I wouldn't be so sure about Maria maintaining hurricane status with the rate it's weakening right now; it may be downgraded to a strong TS within the next 12-24 hours. However, tropical storm warnings and watches are still up for parts of the Outer Banks and surrounding areas, since Maria's circulation remains large (about 10 times the size of Lee's). ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:06, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Off Africa
This one is behind the above system and is at 10/20. It's also heading due westward. Unfortunately, despite the devastation caused by Harvey and Irma, the Atlantic is far from slowing down. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 23:59, September 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * 30/40. We could see Lee from the above storm and Maria from this. Ryan1000 12:07, September 14, 2017 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Actually, this might become Lee first by now, it has organized significantly and very fast. This is already up to 60/70, 96L is at 20/70. Ryan1000 20:31, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * This will likely be a TS at most because upper-level winds are forecast to increase after day 2. It could continue the trend of "Lee" always being a tropical storm after the name replaced "Lenny" after 1999. Sorry Leeboy, a fishspinning major hurricane is not going to happen with this invest. But if 96L (the other AOI) somehow becomes Lee instead, that very likely won't be a fishspinner and will threaten at least the Leeward Islands in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here comes Lee. Looking very well organized might become a Cat 1. --Whiplash (talk) 23:49, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also he is at 80/90 now likely will be Lee by tomorrow morning. --Whiplash (talk) 23:49, September 14, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen
Feel free to discuss here. --Roblox543
 * Forecast to reach 70 mph before weakening. I'm rooting for future Lee to become an Atlantic fishspinner version of Max though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:10, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed. It is forecast to peak at 70 mph, but knowing NHC to be conservative, a hurricane is likely going to occur. I even root for something stronger than C1, but light to moderate easterly shear is likely to slow the strengthening trend a bit. After future-Lee reaches its peak on the 18th, the negative effects of southwesterly shear is going to induce weakening and hopefully seal the fate of to-be Lee before it becomes a threat to any land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:29, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

lol. As long as my name goes to a hurricane instead of a tropical storm, I don't care what strength it is. Just stay away from land..... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:59, September 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Due to proximity to 96L, this may slow down to a near standstill over the weekend before it turns north and likely stays away from land in the long run. Ryan1000 11:11, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Forecasted to become Lee this afternoon. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:25, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still not Lee as of the 5 PM advisory. Its pressure is up to 1009 mbar. I'm sorry Lee, but I guess your name won't be used for a hurricane this time... T  G  2 0 1 7 20:46, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

Oh :( Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 22:36, September 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee, I'm afraid that this will be a name-stealer, I think. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 00:10, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * My power has been out for days from Irma and has just returned so I have finally returned. Not sure TD14 is going to get named. Lee might be angry that he wasn't retired last time.  Owen 00:23, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Okay, this thing is still a TD as of the 11PM advisory. If this remains a TD until Sunday, this might just settle for the name Maria. TD 14 is literally the Atlantic equivalent of 15-E. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:14, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

This depression is frustrating me. It better not steal my name.... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 04:06, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Both TDs 15-E and 14L are moving westward with no change of strength. They are forecasted to steal the names Otis and Lee or Maria. Sigh. That's how it goes. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:26, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee
And the waste of a good name... T G  2 0 1 7 14:53, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Yay, my name getting stolen by a name-stealer. I'm so happy......... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 15:04, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sadly, it was bound to occur. 30 kt of westerly shear is forecast by 48 hours, preventing Lee from getting too strong. The NHC TWO even mentioned that it would eventually enter unfavorable conditions before it even formed. Lee is going to fail like in 2005... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:12, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sigh, Lee is going to be weak. What a waste. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:51, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

I hope Lee will troll all of us and just explode. Unfortunately, for now, it looks like it might be similar to Felicia. Lee? More like Feleecia. Edit: There's more Lee puns where that came from. If you don't like them, I'll just leeve. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:38, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lee
Bye flop. See you again in 2023, perhaps? (Unless NHC will do that retroactive retirement — highly unlikely though.) Bret is finally displaced as the weakest storm of the season. While that is typically a sad news for me, it is not a sad news this time; we've had enough destructive hurricanes since Harvey, and Lee served as some sort of relief from those beasts. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:59, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Facepalm Bye fail. We don't want you anymore so go dissipate. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 15:57, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Lol. Well, it's the weakest of the season. At least it's best at something :P. I'll have to try again in 2023. This is sillee. Okay, I'm done with the Lee puns. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 17:36, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee putting the depression in tropical depression. :) --Whiplash (talk) 21:36, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep. What a faileeure this is... :P It has been such a pathetic storm, hopefully Lee does better in 2023. But if you think about it, Lee was still a nice break from the constant monsters we've been having this season, even if another such monster (Maria) is looming. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:24, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

I mean, I'm happy we got a break from the destruction, but Maria's likelee going to restart it. It is patheticalee disappointing that all of the Lees have been relativelee weak. Technicalee, this one is actuallee weaker than the 2005 version of Lee. The winds were the same, but while this Lee had a pressure of 1007, the one in 2005 had a pressure of 1006. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 23:38, September 17, 2017 (UTC) Update: Added Lee puns to the words "pathetically" and "relatively", because why not? Another update: Screw it, any "ly"s in my posts about Lee will be replaced with Lee.

Lee's still alive. He's fighting to stay alive. Poor guy. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Lee
And he gives up. Try again in 2023, Lee. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:48, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

This may just be the fact that we share the same name talking, but maybe I was a bit too hard on Lee. First off, the environment he was in was highly unfavorable. Even if he tried his best, he probably would have fallen flat on his face anyway. Second of all, he gave us a much needed (but unfortunately, thanks to Maria, short) break from all the destruction, and I appreciate that a lot. Also it is slightly amusing to see a storm with your name, that is until one of them causes destruction and goes down in infamy.

Rest easy little Lee, you've probably gone to the giant ocean in the sky where the well-behaved storms that caused little or no destruction are free to spin up the ocean all they want to, in an environment free of shear. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 02:50, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, at least it was a break from the monsters. A very short break, but a break nonetheless. The storm was still an epic disgraceful faileeure though. A major fishspinner that never ever touches land is what we need instead. Harvey, Irma, and Maria are going to a giant icy ocean in the underworld, where there is a bunch of land, powerful wind shear, and desert-like dry air. :P ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:40, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Yep. They're going to Hurricane Hell. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 03:57, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, I think Hurricane Hell is for retired names. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:08, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Pretty much, if the name is retired, it's likely there. Along with some snubbed storms. If you're debating snubbed storms, Tip is an exception. From what I know, he's like the god of the hurricanes there. ;) Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 05:27, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

What is hell for a hurricane?...wouldn't it be dead air over smooth cold water?

Meanwhile the TWO says the Remnants of Lee have a 10/20 chance of forming a cyclone.ZombieLee?12.144.5.2 13:31, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Steve mentioned above what it would be like. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 13:34, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also, I'd love to see a ZombieLee. A Zombee. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 13:36, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee hasn't given up. The remnants are at 60/60. Even a small increase in regeneration of Lee.--182.58.49.46 03:07, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wow, Lee might even reform after it's failure. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:48, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Chances now 60/70!12.144.5.2 06:03, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

The Zomblee of a faileeure could reform. :P This is like the 2005 Lee, which also reformed. I hope that if it does reform, it redeems itself and becomes at least a half-decent storm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:38, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm sorry to report that the chances of redevelopment have dropped to 40/50. :/ Winds have dropped below gale force, but for a little while they were at 40 kts, which would mean that if Lee does not regenerate, then it was stronger as a remnant low than it was as a tropical cyclone. Weird. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:09, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Poor Lee is now down to 20/30, and redevelopment chances are decreasing. User:Stacy54


 * Well, this remains as a fai​leeure as it was a flop. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 01:51, September 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, doesn't look like this flop will redevelop anymore. Lee '17 goes down in history as a forgettable epic fail of a TC. At least it gave us a small break from the monsters, even though Maria was starting to ruin the northeastern Caribbean just when Lee was dissipating. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:37, September 21, 2017 (UTC)

Lee's remnants are gone from the TWO. It's over folks. Beware of Maria.

98L.INVEST
nobody expected this. 40/50 per latest TWO and may be conservative... roussil 97


 * "Associated with the remnants of Lee",says the NHC...12.144.5.2 18:20, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * They're back on, and at 40/50! Someone's not going down without a fight. -- Dylan  ( HurricaneMaker99 ) 18:22, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * an animated in-house disscussion must be ongoing in the NHC, no best track update so far  roussil 97


 * tidbits site says Lee has regenerated. has the same position as 98L in best track.  roussil 97  19:30, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Umm... fellas... AL, 14, 2017092218,, BEST, 0, 305N, 490W, 30, 1014, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, Even if this winds up being Lee's secondary peak intensity, I'm happy. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:52, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * instead regenerated into Lee. roussil  97  20:47, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lee (2nd time)
It's back and better than before.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:38, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * You had me an edit conflict there Isaac. Anyway, expected to peak near hurricane status. C'mon Lee, you can do it. Owen 20:42, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this does become a hurricane, then... has any Atlantic season ever produced eight consecutive hurricanes? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:45, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on Lee! Finallee become a hurricane please! Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:43, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

Now I see Lee as the real successor of 2012's Nadine, lol. Anyway, hope Lee becomes a hurricane as he is no threat to land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:18, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Is Lee the frontrunner in the "weirdest storm" betting pool?12.144.5.2 01:18, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

HE'S BACK!!!!! YES!!!! GO LEE GO!!!!!! PLEASE PULL A GENEVIEVE!!!!! Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 01:45, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Impressive, I didn't expect Lee to come back, but he did. I'd be impressed if he does become a hurricane and I'd no longer consider him an epic fail if he does that, but it still looks like Lee won't affect land either way. Dylan, there has never been an Atlantic hurricane season that has had 8 consecutive hurricanes in reliable record-keeping during the sattelite era; 1950 is the closest runner-up which had the first 7 storms become hurricanes, but if you count every Atlantic hurricane season in the best track record going back to 1851, there were 8 consecutive hurricanes in the 1870 season and the first 10 storms of the 1886 season all became hurricanes, although there likely could've been a few storms that were missed back then. Ryan1000 02:05, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee (2nd time)

 * Lee is back to a TS, and is now forecast to peak as a 85 mph hurricane. Due to low wind shear, quite a possibility he could rapidly intensify. On the other hand, because he is so small, he can also dissipate again. Owen 03:27, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

"Quite a possibility he could rapidly intensify." Yes please. I know I'm asking for too much, and the chances of it happening are almost non-existent, but I want Lee to become a Category 5. We need a powerful storm that doesn't hit land. Plus, you guys already know the other reason I want Lee to become a powerful hurricane. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 04:14, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

About the weirdest outcome would be further cycles of disappearing and reappearing.I can just imagine a storm that sticks around for the rest of the season,coming back from the dead every time it gets written off...12.144.5.2 04:49, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * A Category 3 is a bit possible for him. Let him pull off a Genevieve and Nadine. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:14, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, speak of the devil, the latest forecast track from the NHC eventually calls for Lee to become a hurricane, this actually might happen...Ryan1000 05:21, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee has surpassed his previous peak intensity by attaining winds of 40 knots. Also, from the latest forecast discussion: "microwave data showed that Lee possessed an 8-10 nmi diameter eye-like feature in both the low- and mid-levels". RI anyone? ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:01, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm hoping for it to RI, so that Leeboy will be happy. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 16:01, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Me too. Lee needs to be a win! Can't believe Lee is holding on for so long, since it was initially looking like a bust. This may pull an Otis (except, unlike Otis, Lee dissipated along the way before regenerating). A major fishspinner would be the best and it would satisfy Leeboy's wishes. Hopefully it completely avoids land in the very long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:54, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Go, Lee go! If Lee becomes a hurricane I'll change my signature to say Hurricane Lee instead of Leeboy100. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 21:00, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Also, Lee is extremely tiny. Tropical storm force winds extend out only 35 miles from the center. Marco and Tracy were still smaller in size, Lee being only a little (heh, little) bit bigger than Tracy. Also, I can't say for sure, but I think Fernand in 2013 was also a bit smaller than both Lee and Tracy. It's kind of cute how small he is. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 21:20, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Its size is only 5 miles bigger than Tracy. So small... Anyway, the peak intensity forecast is 85 mph. I hope it achieves C2 strength or even major hurricane status as it will remain away from land. The small size of Lee will subject it to major fluctuations in intensity and RI is not out of the question. The NHC themselves even said that they have low confidence in their forecast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:01, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * As the really small storm is at 50 mph/1003 mb, this will intensify into a hurricane. A major is not out of the question too. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 06:18, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * He is doing it... an eye now visible on satellite imagery. Kiewii 06:19, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

Oh my god, I'm so happy. I looked at the visible imagery, there is very clearlee an eye on the visible imagery. As you can see in this picture. GO LEE GO!!!! Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:28, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * An eye forms even though it's not a hurricane yet. Lee most likely to become a hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:38, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Lee
Here it is. The first ever Hurricane Lee is rapidly intensifying. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! - 68.106.0.77 06:40, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

Ummmm, I just checked the NHC site, and it just said: '''230AM EDT. HURRICANE LEE. CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.''' SPECIAL ADVISORY UPGRADES LEE TO A HURRICANE!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!! Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:40, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * NHC confirmed, 75 mph and 987 mbars. Looks like Lee may be on the verge of RI and could become a fairly strong hurricane out to sea at this rate. Ryan1000 06:42, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... Words cannot describe how unbeleevably happy I am right now. :D Also, thanks to Lee, we now have 8 hurricanes in a row! Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:44, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * 85/983, and forecast peak upped to 110 mph, but at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if Lee becomes a major hurricane. Ryan1000 09:37, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Cloud tops remain quite warm, for some reason. Also the record for most number of hurricanes in a row appears to be 1893 with ten. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:47, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * If Lee becomes a major, I'd be genuinely happy. This is a forecast defier, much like Emily earlier in the season and Otis in the eastern Pacific. Indeed, finalee the name Lee became a hurricane — and it's a fish spinner! He really gave us a break from the destructive hurricanes. Go Lee, go! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:47, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I have no qualms whatsoever about waking up to this — well done Lee, and congrats Leeboy!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:03, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I mentioned before that 1886 also had 10 consecutive hurricanes, but both 1886 and 1893 were before the sattelite era, so a few fishspinner TS's back then may have gone unnoticed. The 2017 Atlantic season does hold the record for the most consecutive hurricanes of any Atlantic season in the sattelite era (going back to 1944 or so), but 1886 and 1893 have the all-time records, discounting potentially missed storms back then. Ryan1000 11:37, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensity up to 90 mph/982 mbar. Expected to strengthen more. I won't be surprised if it's a major hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 15:53, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee looking impressive on satellite. Wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our 5th major of the season.  Owen 17:26, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I can't recall the last time I saw an Atlantic hurricane with such impressive structure yet relatively shallow convection. Throw a decent amount of red into the AVN imagery and we'd probably have a major hurricane right now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:35, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND... That's what I like to hear. Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 20:50, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Everybody likes to hear that. 😁 To be honest, Lee looks more like a C4 than a 90 mph C1 on visible satellite imagery. It has really shallow convection though. I hope Lee strengthens to a major. BTW, with the discussion saying that Lee's TS force winds extend out only 30 nautical miles, it's almost as small as Tracy. (A nautical mile is slightly larger than a mile) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:07, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

Lee looks very well-defined. I fully expect it to be a Category 2 in the next advisory. Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 04:29, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements.

Andros 1337 (talk) 01:53, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 5% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 15% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes, but overshadowed by Harvey.
 * Don - 10% - May have a slight chance of being retired for political reasons, but I wouldn't count on it, so I will keep my estimate conservative.
 * Emily - 0.01% - Very minor impact.
 * Franklin - 5% - Damage total unknown, but probably minor and caused no deaths.
 * Gert - 1% - Caused two deaths due to rip currents, but that is it.
 * Harvey - 100% - Record flooding in Texas, an obvious retirement candidate.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#889">0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Franklin miraculously caused no fatalities in Mexico. There is almost no chance of retirement. The only damage from Franklin was minimal.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#449">5% - Two people drowned from rip currents in the United States, which is very sad. Gert defied all of the forecasts, becoming not a Category 1 hurricane, but a Category 2 hurricane! I thought that Gert wouldn't be any stronger than a strong TS, but I was very wrong. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#500">100% - I really have no words about how bad this storm was. Harvey jumped off a cliff, and could bring Irma with him. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 17:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff6060">Irma : <font color="#500">100% - After wiping out Barbuda and St. Martin, Irma is most likely going to go after this year. T  G  2 0 1 7 19:47, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jose : <font color="#889">0.01% - Almost hit the Northern Leeward Islands. That would have been a mess.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Katia : <font color="#669">1% - Struck Mexico at the same time as a strong earthquake. This gives Katia a slightly higher chance than Franklin.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Lee : 0% - Probablee the worst fail ever.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria : <font color="#500">100% - Not a chance she will stay for 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 23:54, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

T G  2 0 1 7 15:56, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Retired (80-100%): Harvey, Irma, Maria
 * Possibly Retired (50-79%): None
 * Notable mentions (20-49%): Cindy, Don
 * Final retirements: TBA
 * Replacements: Herbert, Imogen, Minerva

Retirements from Steve
Retirements=
 * The "Retirements" tab is the main tab used to list all storms and their retirement chances, grades, and explanations.
 * The "In summary..." tab is exactly like how it sounds. Provides a summary of all storms and categorizes them based on how likely they are to be retired. Grades aren't included there.
 * Check the "Replacement Names for Potential Retirements" tab for my top 10 replacement suggestions for each likely retirement. All storms that are categorized as "Possibly Retired" and above on the "In summary..." tab are mentioned here.
 * Check the "Notes" tab for all the colors used on the main tab for retirement chances, grades, and storm intensities. Below the colors on this tab, there are explanations for why I did some things the way I did.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#086">B+ - It was fantastic for forming in April, but being only a moderate TS means it can't receive higher than a B+.
 * <font color="#0CF">Bret : <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#F00">F  - Existed in an unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect). The location gives Bret a tiny retirement chance and improves the grade a bit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#F50">D - The region it struck has been through much worse, and it has been very overshadowed by Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">Z - Failed to redeem itself after 2011, but 50 mph is enough to prevent it from getting my worst grade. The 20% is for the unlikely chance that just because Donald Trump is president, it could get the "Adolph, Israel, and Isis" treatment.
 * <font color="#0CF">Emily : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#8F0">C+  - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Damage totals are unknown and there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Damage could have been a bit extensive, however.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#086">B+  - Got stronger than what initial forecasts called for. 2 saddening indirect deaths from rip currents is nowhere near enough for the name to be considered for retirement.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#0F0">B- - This will be retired. 3rd costliest in U.S. history according to preliminary totals, and 71 deaths. The NHC has to be on drugs to not retire this. (There is an explanation for why Harvey's grade is so low in the "Notes" section)
 * <font color="#900">Irma : <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#0B3">B - A catastrophic beast that raged through the Caribbean, causing a trail of devastation along the way. Florida was impacted as well, as it was very destructive there. This was the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. There is no logical reason why this won't be retired. (There is an explanation for why Irma's grade is so low in the "Notes" section)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jose : <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#00F">A+ - Almost became a C5 and was really long-lasting (70 advisories, most since Nadine '12)! Thankfully it did only minimal damage. 0.1% is for the minimal damage, and the other 0.9% is for Jose's strength and longevity.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Katia : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0F0">B- - 2 deaths give this a higher retirement chance than Franklin. Doesn't appear that there was much damage though.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.



In summary...= Certainly Retired: Harvey, Irma

Likely Retired: None

Possibly Retired: None

Probably Not Retired: Cindy, Don, Franklin, Katia

Not Retired: Arlene, Bret, Emily, Gert, Jose

Projected retirement chances for currently active storms (could always change as time goes on):


 * Lee - Not Retired
 * Maria - Certainly Retired



Replacement Names for Potential Retirements= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Possibly Retired, Likely Retired, and Certainly Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Harvey (Certainly Retired):
 * Henley
 * Harper
 * Harris(on)
 * Hyacinth
 * Harold
 * Herbert
 * Hampton
 * Harley
 * Hyde
 * Hilton

Irma (Certainly Retired)
 * Ivy
 * Ina
 * Izzy
 * Imogen
 * Indira
 * Isla
 * Ilse
 * Irina
 * Inga
 * Isa

Projected - Maria (Certainly Retired)
 * Mary
 * Martha
 * Minerva
 * Morgan
 * Molly
 * Melanie
 * Madison
 * Megan
 * Matilda
 * Monica



Notes= Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0% (PAGASA only), <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% (PAGASA only) 

Intensity colors: <font color="#0CF">Weak TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">Moderate TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">Severe TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 (Minor Hurricane) , <font color="#ffe775">C2 (Moderate Hurricane) , <font color="#ffc140">C3 (Major Hurricane) , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 (Intense Hurricane) , <font color="#ff6060">160-180 mph C5 (Super Hurricane) , <font color="#900">≥185 mph C5 (Cataclysmic Super Hurricane) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-85%
 * "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
 * "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
 * "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin, which is the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired. A percentage that is in-between is never used in such a basin.
 * For other basins that don't have retirement requirements (the vast majority of basins), ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The colors for "weak TS" and "Cataclysmic Super Hurricane" are made up and not part of the official color classification. The "severe TS" color is the same as the "Severe Tropical Storm" color used in basins such as the WPac. The labels "Severe TS" and "Super Hurricane" are at least partially borrowed from the WPac.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * EXPLAINS HARVEY AND IRMA: Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc. If a storm would otherwise get A++ or higher, it looks like it drops less than 2 letters. A++ to B- is the same distance as the above mentioned example (A to C).
 * I see you changed almost everything on your retirements. I'd say, this is better than before. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:02, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, thanks! I changed my predictions to be more in-depth and realistic. Of course, new intensity colors were added and "F-" is now "Z". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:03, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * A little odd that the very things that earn 100% get marked down in the letter grades.12.144.5.2 14:23, September 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * I did it for a reason. Storms that kill people and are very devastating don't deserve the highest grades. For example: if I gave Irma my highest possible grade or even anything close to it, it might seem insensitive to victims of Irma, for anyone who had friends/family affected, etc. It just seems wrong to give storms like Irma their highest possible grade, because in my opinion, it feels similar to cheering on a storm that is about to devastate a city. So for the top costliest hurricanes on record or for the top deadliest, a maximum of a 2-letter reduction is necessary. Harvey and Irma both got the maximum reduction due to their extreme damages. And to clarify, "2-letter" reductions don't apply to storms that would otherwise get at least A++. The distance between A++ and B- is the same as A+ to C+, A to C, etc. So what appears to be less than a 2 letter drop is actually the same amount of reduction. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * So what is the point of the grade?...killing people is a reason storms get retired.12.144.5.2 06:21, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I know that. I grade every named storm that forms, even the destructive ones. Grades and retirement chances have absolutely no association, in fact the opposite. The lower the retirement chance, the higher the grade will be unless it is a failure TS. Weak TS's almost always get a very low grade because they have not performed well at all (but exceptions could be made if they formed at a very unusual time or location, or surprised forecasters). Grades are meant to be for how well a storm performed, taking into account how well it defied forecasts (or didn't), or how strong it became (or lack of strength). They also take into account unusual locations, unusual time of year and longevity. Destruction and deaths factors in just because the devastating ones are monsters that strike fear into everyone, are infamous and hateful. The point is that every storm deserves a grade, but I can't give the really devastating ones the highest grades due to how insensitive it could appear to victims and those who had friends/family affected. These devastating storms are universally hated as well - who would give such a vengeful monster an A++? The highest grade that the most devastating storms ever (like Katrina, Harvey, Irma, Sandy, or Haiyan) could receive is "B". That is probably one the highest grades possible that doesn't appear insensitive. On the other hand, Genevieve '14 would receive "A+++(x∞)" for being a great fighter, lasting so long, intensifying to a C5 much to everybody's surprise and not harming anyone. I hope you understand what I mean in my comments above, because I don't want to argue about this anymore. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:27, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , 7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#330000">99% , 100%,  <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A++ , <font color="#00CC66">A+ , A , <font color="00FFCC">A- , B+ , <font color="00CCFF">B , <font color="#0099FF">B- , C+ , <font color="3333CC">C , C- , <font color="99CC66">D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z ) Note: The grading will come after the season ends.

50% or more=italics That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * UPDATE: Obviously Harvey's going. Irma looks likely to be retired as well. We'll see what happens. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:40, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022, early surprises.
 * Cindy - 10% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 4% - 0.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.
 * Emily - 0% - Surprisingly formed, but sorry it's a no. You're not going anywhere.
 * Franklin - 15% - Had notable impacts, but Mexico has seen worse.
 * Gert - 0.1% - That .1% is for being an incredible fishspinner, but to be honest we'll see Gert again in 2023.
 * Harvey - 100% - Now this is the name we will (most likely) not see in 2023. Thought to be a flop, but became a monstrous Category 4 after regenerating and made landfall in Texas at peak intensity. This may be one for the books. This is a storm that looks like a bad combination of Allison, Celia and Carla. At least 3 deaths have been reported so far, and the damage is now estimated to cost $2 billion. I just hope this won't be Texas's Sandy or Katrina, or a worse repeat of Ike. Never mind. This will surely go.
 * Irma - 100% - see Harvey. (The damage in Florida and the Leeward Islands is more than enough. She won't be back in 2023.)
 * Jose - 1% - longest-lived storm since Nadine, but minimal impacts.
 * Katia - 10% - Franklin 2.0, but a bit worse because of 2 fatalities.
 * Lee - 0.1% - Fail-lee-cia at first, but regenerated. Still, see you in 2023.
 * Maria - 100% - see Irma. This is Marie 2014's sinister sister.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:54, September 22, 2017 (UTC).)

Owen's Retirement Opinions

 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 25% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists. (replacement picks: Dylan, Dominic, or Dane)
 * Emily - 5% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
 * Franklin - 10% - With what data is available, I don't think Franklin is going to be retired. However, if a new report comes out showing significant damage, he could easily get his odds bumped.
 * Gert - 2% - Killed two people and defied the forecasts and became a beautiful C2, but it still won't be enough to be retired.
 * Harvey - 100% - There is no doubt that what could be the costliest natural disaster in US history will be getting the boot. (replacement picks: Hunter, Harold, or Harry)
 * Irma - 100%  - I'm left with no words. Only word I'm left with that I can say is catastrophic. Irma's gotta go. (replacement picks: Ilyssa, Ivy, or Imogen)
 * Jose - Possible - Some models indicating Jose could be a significant threat down the road to NJ and NY.
 * Katia - 10% - More or less was a Franklin repeat and could've been much worse.
 * Lee - 0% - It's too bad the name went to a waste this year.
 * Maria - 100% - Not a chance that Maria stays. 2017 will be the first season since 2008 to see more than two names removed from the naming list as well as the first since 2007 to feature multiple Cat 5's because of this monster.  (replacement picks: Megan, Molly, Malia)

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Leeboy100's Retirement predictions
My turn! Leeboy100 Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene- 0%: Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.
 * Bret- 1%: Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.
 * Cindy- 20%: Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.
 * Don- 3%: Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons. Update: Lowered chances to 10%. I never did feel too confident with Don being retired in the first place, but due to the fact that after it dissipated it was forgotten almost immediately, and also due to the fact that Harvey and Irma have overshadowed it, I feel even less confident that Don will go. Also, Bill was used (and not retired) in 1997, and at the time Bill Clinton was president. Update again: 3% because I feel even less confident.
 * Emily- 1%: Minimal impacts.
 * Franklin- 2%: Still no exact damage numbers, but it doesn't seem too bad. Thankfully, there were no deaths.
 * Gert- 1%: Defied all forecasts by becoming almost a major hurricane. Unfortunately caused two deaths due to rip currents.
 * Harvey- 100%: Preliminary damage costs are around $70 billion, with estimates saying damage is potentially  $190 billion!!  We won't be seeing the name Harvey again, except in the history books of infamous hurricanes. Replacement picks: Hank or Harry
 * Irma- 100%: Gone, there's no logical way it's going to stay. Massive destruction in the Caribbean, and in Florida. Not as bad as Harvey, but still a terrible storm nonetheless. Irma, or "Irmageddon" as I like to call her, will not be back in 2023. Replacement picks: Ivy or Isa.
 * Jose- 5%: Caused some damage, but very minimal. Stuck around for a while though. We'll likely be seeing him again in 2023.
 * Katia- 10%: Thankfully, didn't do as much destruction as feared. Unfortunately caused two deaths, but that's not enough for retirement.
 * Lee 0%: Currently active lol. GG, Lee. No matter how strong Lee gets, the retirement prediction will stay 0% because he is nowhere near land.
 * Maria- 100%: Currently active. Gone. Without a doubt. Can we get non-destructive storms now? Three hurricanes having 100% chances at retirement is more than enough. Update: Definitely gone, due to the damage in Dominica and Puerto Rico. Replacement picks: Megan or Molly.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Well, I made mine for the other basins, so why not here?

Well, that's it...for now. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Became the first tropical storm to form in April since 2003's Ana, and it also stands alongside Estelle in the EPac as the most commonly used tropical cyclone name in the NHC's AOR track record, with this being the 11th time Arlene was used since 1959. And because Arlene didn't affect land, we're certainly going to see Arlene used again in 2023.
 * Bret - 1% - Caused minor impacts in the southern lesser antilles, with two deaths reported, and it became one of only 3 June storms in the Atlantic to form in this location, along with Ana '79 and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. But it won't be retired.
 * Cindy - 15% - Somewhat damaging storm for the southeastern U.S, but it likely won't be retired. Cindy is also the second most commonly used Atlantic storm name, after Arlene and tied with Frances (9 uses since 1959), but since Frances was retired, and Cindy won't be, we'll see her on the list for the 10th time in 2023.
 * Don - 1% - Wasn't much different than Bret. I also doubt he'll be removed from the naming lists just because the current U.S. president just so happens to have the same name; if that does happen, I won't count Don as a real retirement (due to impact), just like how I don't count storms like Adolph/Isis/Israel as retired names due to impact, which is what I consider here.
 * Emily - 1% - 96,000 USD in damage is low for a U.S. landfalling TS; couple that with no deaths, and Emily probably won't go.
 * Franklin - 10% - Fortunately, no deaths have been reported from Franklin, unlike how Earl of last year killed over 90 people in Mexico, and damage probably wasn't too bad.
 * Gert - 1% - It's a shame that two people were killed from Gert due to rip currents, but otherwise it didn't affect land.
 * Harvey - 100% - Texas Governor Greg Abbott said overall damages from Harvey are likely to be between 150 billion and 180 billion dollars, considering it took 120 billion to rebuild New Orlenas after Katrina. It's very possible that Harvey could be the costliest natural disaster in American history, and he will, without question, be retired after this year.
 * Irma - 100% - Harvey's big sister. The Caribbean islands of Barbuda, St. Martin, Anguilla, St. Barthelemy and some of the Virgin Islands were utterly annihilated by this category 5 monster; Irma caused upwards of 10 billion dollars in damage to those islands alone, making Irma the worst hurricane in terms of both intensity and damage totals to hit the northeastern Lesser Antilles on record. Couple that with a category 5 landfall and widespread damage across northern Cuba and upwards of 50 billion dollars in damage across southwestern Florida, and Irma is one of the top 5 costliest hurricanes of all time. And like Harvey, there is absolutely no chance Irma will be reused in 2023.
 * Jose - 10% - Jose caused somewhat extensive flooding and surge damage in parts of southeastern Massachusetts, but he doesn't hold a candle to the historic destruction caused by his two predecesors or Maria, and he's probably coming back in 2023. With that, it looks like 2017 fell short on having 3 consecutive retirements.
 * Katia - 10% - Killed two people in Mexico, but it struck south of Tampico, so damage probably wasn't too bad, maybe even less than Franklin.
 * Lee - 0% - This might actuaLEE redeem himself for failing earlier on; if this becomes a hurricane, I'd be very impressed. Still a fishspinner though.
 * Maria - 100% - Still active, but rapidly strengthened to hit Dominica as a category 5 hurricane and later hit Puerto Rico as a strong category 4 storm. Dominica has never seen a hurricane as strong as Maria before and I can't see how a category 5 landfall on the island won't be one of the, if not the, worst natural disasters Dominica has ever seen. Couple that with potentially as much as 30 billion dollars in damage to Puerto Rico, and Maria could be one of the top 10 costliest Atlantic hurricanes ever, so there's no way this won't be retired.

Isaac's predictions
Here's mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:44, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Everyone else - 0%.
 * Harvey - 100% - For the damage so far.
 * Irma - 100% - For damage in the Caribbean.
 * Maria - 100% - For damage to Dominica and Puerto Rico.

Puffle's prediction party
sorry for the cringey title (Retirement colors: <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) ok credit to everyone who created le colors ok go: btw i wasnt rly paying attention until harvey happened

<font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  02:00, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#ff00ff">no% - went in a circle and died. the end
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#02c">0.01% - is this a joke. barely made landfall but eh.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#04a">1% - literally landfalled in the same place as Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#dead40">fish% - fish
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#02c">waitwhat% - stop with the fails, and how was emily not retired
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#02c">0.01% - ok
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#ff00ff">lame% - fish
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#C20000">100% - HOLY CRAP HARVEY. I PREDICTED THIS TWO YEARS AGO! (Also people are predicting that Harvey will cost more than Katrina.) Replacement idea: Hal
 * <font color="#ff6060">Irma : <font color="#C20000">100% - Irma killed my best friend Charles. However, the damage isn't looking too catastrophic in some places, but it will likely go, not just for the damage it's done in Florida, but for the damage it's done in the Leeward Islands, and Cuba as well. Replacement idea: Ivy
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jose : <font color="#04a">5% - Went from threatening, to drunk in 2 days.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Katia : <font color="#04a">1% - Hit Mexico but did no damage. Earthquake was way worse.
 * <font color="#000000">Lee : <font color="#000">failicia% - no
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria : <font color="#C20000">100% - Dominica and Putero Rico are about to be wiped off of this planet. Replacement idea: Macy
 * <font color="#000000">Nate : <font color="#000">???% - Nate has not formed yet.
 * <font color="#000000">Ophelia : <font color="#000">???% - Ophelia has not formed yet.


 * Puffle, please give credit to me too because I created the scale colors. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:29, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * And the grades are unnecessary, since it doesn't appear that you are using them... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * kek done <font face="Trebuchet MS" color="#ff8100">Puffle •  <font face="Trebuchet MS">Talk  <font face="Trebuchet MS">Blog

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Adding a color scale for the first time.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F .

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Arlene – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Made April absolutely amazing.
 * Bret – grade  C , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . At least it tried to do something before being sheared to shreds in the graveyard.
 * Cindy – grade  E , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Didn't look that tropical for most of its lifetime.
 * Don – grade  E , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5%  due to the media association with Donald Trump. Otherwise this was pathetic; it gets an E for going above 35 knots.
 * Emily – grade  D , retirement <font color="#FF00FF">10% . It tried, but wasn't particularly memorable.
 * Franklin – grade  B , retirement <font color="#0000FF">20%  for damage. One of a common type of storm that crosses the Yucatan before rapidly developing in the BoC.
 * Gert – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5%  for the two deaths it caused. Really kept us waiting for a while, but eventually became a C2.
 * Harvey – grade  A , retirement <font color="#330000">100% . Powerful C4 that would have been great as a fish, but turned into a flooding nightmare for Texas and Louisiana. Really, did you have to give Houston 50 inches of rain?
 * PTC 10 – grade  F  (and a designation can't be retired). Was tipped to become Irma, but it busted.
 * Irma – grade  A , retirement <font color="#330000">100% . Well, what can I say. Ridiculously powerful storm, unfortunately wasn't a fishspinner. Goodbye.
 * Jose – grade  A , retirement <font color="#FF00FF">10% . Long-lived, powerful storm that thankfully didn't worsen things too much for the Leeward Islands after Irma.
 * Katia – grade  C , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Didn't look too bad for landfall as a C2. Grade is C because it scuppered its RI phase.
 * Lee – currently active, retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Welcome back! Hope you can become a major hurricane this time round.
 * Maria – currently active, retirement <font color="#330000">100% . Bye.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 11:07, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

Jdcomix's predictions
Jdcomix (talk) 02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - Grade A, 0% - Fish storm, but in April. Awesome storm.
 * Bret - Grade C, 5% - You tried. Only chance is if an island country requests this for retirement, which I doubt.
 * Cindy - Grade D, 5% - Near hurricane strength storm in June, so I'll give it some credit for that.
 * Don - Grade E, 10% - Only reason I give this a higher chance of retirement than the others so far is due to the name being the same as the current President, but even that's a stretch. Pathetic storm either way.
 * Emily - Grade D, 5% - Hit Florida with some minor impacts, nothing really to warrant retirement, though.
 * Franklin - Grade B, 10% - Giving this a low chance of retirement because there were surprisingly no deaths in Mexico, unlike Earl last year.
 * Gert - Grade B, 0% - Fish storm, but the first Cat 2 of the year and an at an unusually high latitude.
 * Harvey - Grade B+, 100% - Bye Felicia!
 * PTC 10 - Grade F, 0% - Can't be retired, would have become Irma but busted
 * Irma - Grade A+++, 100% - Incredible storm, but knocked it down below an S rank because of the utter devastation caused all over the basin.
 * Jose, Grade S, 0% - Near category 5 that didn't cause any damage, just how I like it.
 * Katia -  Grade C, 5% - Not too much damage, but did kill 2 people.
 * Lee - Ongoing. Failicia at first, but regenerated and could become a hurricane out at sea
 * Maria - Ongoing, 100%. Ugh, you too?

Dylan's predictions

 * Arlene: 0% - In terms of impacts, this was nothing more than April showers over the open Atlantic, but as only the second purely tropical Atlantic storm ever recorded in the month, this was a welcome surprise.
 * Bret: 5% - Cool to see something so far south so early in the season, but this storm was low on impact, and I'm having a hard time seeing how Bret won't be back in 2023.
 * Cindy: 10% - Standard-issue early-season Gulf Coast TS.
 * Don: 2% - Ryan said it best, though should Don get the boot for political reasons, I'll second the calls in for my name to take its place ;) (I must admit that I blushed a bit when I saw them — thanks, fellas!)
 * Emily: 2% - Surprise formation, meager effects.
 * Franklin: 10% - That death toll (or lack thereof) is a very pleasant surprise. This gets as high as 10% from me because I don't buy the idea of a hurricane of any strength hitting Mexico without dealing some extent of damage.
 * Gert: 1% - For the rip current fatalities. Cool storm to watch, otherwise.
 * Harvey: 100% - There's no logical way it won't happen.
 * Irma: 100% - See Harvey.
 * Jose: 6% - Relieved that not only was Jose far kinder to the Lessers than was initially feared he would be, but he wasn't that bad for the U.S. East Coast either.
 * Katia: 11% - Though Katia unfortunately did not repeat the non-existent death toll of Franklin, she was otherwise scarcely different in terms of impacts.
 * Lee: 0% - Better luck in 2023, mate :/ Or in a few days, that too!
 * Maria: 100% - See Irma.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Rah's predictions!
blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 16:31, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 0%, cool to watch her progress, especilly being all that far up north and the fact she was about in April, but see you in 2023!
 * Bret: 1%, Not sufficient/notable enough to warrant retirement.
 * Cindy: 5%, Ditto. Made landfall in the same place as Harv though. Forgettable storm.
 * Don: 2%, Ditto, but I don't see him going just because of all the Trump memes/media attention this storm got. SAD!
 * Emily: 2%, Ditto, just forgettable.
 * Frankie: 10%, Clumsy, caused a bit of damage but the good thing is that he was kind; no deaths! Just be careful next time, eh?
 * Gert: 5%, Knocked at my window when she arrived in Europe but apart from the surfing deaths, she wasn't that notable.
 * Harvey: 100%, THIS WILL BE GOING, NO DOUBT, UNLESS THE NHC IS ON A HIGH/ON DRUGS/DRUNK. 
 * Irma: 100%, DITTO! THIS MEGA-MONSTROUS STORM IS DOWN IN THE HISTORY BOOKS! THERE'S NO WAY THIS WOMAN IS COMING BACK! SAY HELLO TO IMOGEN 2023!
 * Jose: IDK%, too early to tell, but maybe Fabian/Nicole 2.
 * Kat: IDK%, too early to tell, but probably Frankie 2.

Whiplash's predictions
--Whiplash (talk) 04:03, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey: 100% - Obviously.
 * Irma: 100% - Obviously.
 * Maria: 100% - Obviously.
 * Katia: 5% simply because Mexico retired Ingrid in 2013 because she hit on the same day as Manuel even though she wasn't that noteworthy by Mexican storm standards and Katia happened to hit on the same day as a big earthquake which might cause her to get retired.
 * Everyone else: See you in 2023!

Potentially for Don
Since Don has a fairly decent chance to go, I've set up some replacement names for him:


 * Dylan
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Drake
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dexter
 * Drew
 * Darren
 * Daryl

Post below which two names you like. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:58, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I personally don't find Don's removal likely just because he has the same name as the U.S. president, but if he is removed for that reason, I'd like him to be replaced with Dylan. :) Also, add Darren and Daryl to those list of names. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with you Ryan. If this were to replace with Dylan, he will probably freak out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * I was going to make this comment earlier, but I will just post it here. Pardon my tone, but in my opinion, it is unlikely that Don will be retired simply because it happens to have a similar name as an incumbent U.S. president. Previous presidents and other prominent American political figures have had their names added on the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists without objection. For example, the name Georges was left on Atlantic List II despite President George H.W. Bush being head of state at the time and a presidential candidate for that year. Additionally, Bill, Madeline, Hilary, and Alberto were all used in a span of four years in lieu of potential connotations with notable Clinton administration figures (the Commander-in-Chief himself (whose birthday is today, August 19), Secretary Albright, the First Lady, and Vice President Gore, respectively). More recently, Ike and Laura were the chosen replacement names after the 2002 season, even though the former is a nickname for a former American president and the latter was the name of the wife of then president George W. Bush. Also, if we are going to remove Don, why not remove Michael, the (formal) name of our current vice president as well?
 * Nevertheless, here are five additional potential replacement names should Don be removed:


 * Dusty
 * Dominic
 * Draco (Any Harry Potter fans?)
 * Dante
 * Devan


 * Also, I would consider removing Drew from your replacement name list, as some may find that name too similar to Andrew. I hope this helps!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:42, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I find it only likely that Don would be removed along with the name of Hilary. I don't think they would remove one and not remove the other. Nonetheless, my three replacement name candidates would be Dylan, Drew, or Doug. Obviously, it would be cool to see Dylan's name get added to the naming list like my name got added onto the list last year to replace Otto, or Drew being added to the list for Andrew to have a name to associate with. Doug (third preference) is also an option. Yes, the name Douglas is on the EPAC list but that hasn't stopped them from using "Frank" and "Franklin, "Daniel" and "Danny" or even "Juliette" and "Julia". Also, the name "Frederic" had been retired and the name "Fred" had appeared on the naming list years later, so yeah, like Doug, it's a possibility and can't be ruled out. All three of those names are great options. Owen 07:42, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

I doubt that this will receive that treatment. But if it does, why not Dylan? 😝 Other names in Ryan and Andrew's list are also quite fitting. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

This hurricane season will not be remembered for its "D" storm,I can't imagine a retirement of the name.12.144.5.2 04:30, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

For Harvey
Don has no chance of being retired this discussion is silly. Harvey hasn't made landfall yet but pretty sure he is going to be retired so lets make some H names. Thoughts? Any interesting ones I missed? --Whiplash (talk) 18:30, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hannibal
 * Hans
 * Hadrian
 * Handel
 * Hank
 * Harper - Personally would rather see this used for a girls name although it can be used for either.
 * Harris/Harrison
 * Hayden
 * Heath
 * Heinrich
 * Helmut
 * Henrik
 * Herb/Herbert
 * Horacio
 * Howard/Howie
 * Huey
 * Hugh
 * Hunter - Hurricane hunters chasing Hurricane Hunter lol...
 * Hyacinth - My personal fave


 * Howard was used in the Eastern Pacific last year. :/ It'll be used again in 2022, so that's out. I'd also add Harold and Henry to those names as possible replacements (note: Henri from list 1 is pronounced "ahn-ree", not "Hen-ree" so they're not as confusing as they seem despite being one letter apart). Ryan1000 19:31, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd like to see the names Heath or Hugh, but those are too similar sounding to Keith and Hugo. My best pick would be Herman or Herbert. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:44, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Herman might be confusing with Hernan, which was on the 2014 EPac list and is scheduled for 2020. Ryan1000 19:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My best picks will be Harry, Howie, Herbert, Hans, Hank, Homer or Hal. Harley will be okay, but it reminds me of Harley Quinn instead. Maybe even Hannibal, Hubert (kinda similar to Humberto though), Homer, Huey or Hayden. (Update as of 9/18: I'll add Homer to my picks. It would be fun if Harvey and Maria will be replaced by Homer and Marge. Sadly, Lisa is on List II. Maggie and Bart will follow soon.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My top three picks are Hayden, Harris, and Hank. Hadrian is kinda similar to Adrian though (which is on our current list for the EPac). Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 02:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Two french names I didn't think about... Honore and Hilaire. Both of which are boys names. --Whiplash (talk) 14:39, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I've always felt like Hank would be one of the first H names that the NHC would go with. It does seem like a name they'd choose. So, that's my pick. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would prefer a name that doesn't sound too/very old-fashioned. I'd prefer something more modern or timeless. I would not like that AT ALL. This naming list already sounds so old-fashioned and dated (is anyone even called "Gert" these days??) Anyway, here are my suggestions for possible "H" replacement names, since my instincs tell me Harvey is DEFO getting the boot:


 * Habib
 * Hackett
 * Haddon
 * Hadley
 * Hadrian
 * Hafiz
 * Hagan
 * Hakim
 * Hakan
 * Hal
 * Haines
 * Haile
 * Hagley
 * Hallam
 * Halstead
 * Hampton
 * Hardy
 * Hardik
 * Harald
 * Harley
 * Henrik
 * Helmut
 * Hendy
 * Henning
 * Henley
 * Hiroshi
 * Hilton
 * Homer (LOL)
 * Hopinks
 * Howie (oldish but okay I guess)
 * Hunter (HURRICANE HUNTER IS STRIKING FLORIDA can you imagine THAT being on the headlines? kek)
 * Hussain
 * Hyatt
 * Hymen
 * Hyde
 * Herrick
 * Huey
 * Hurst
 * Henrietto (LOL)
 * Henriettus (ANOTHER LOL)
 * Henriettito (HAHA KEK)
 * I must admit that H names for boys are quite old-fashioned with very little space for more modern names but I kept my list more "classic" I guess. HI IT'S HENRIETTE AND I'M AWESOME (talk) 22:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

My top 3 name replacement candidates for Harvey would be Harry, Harold, and Hunter. I think Hunter would be the most likely name to be chosen. Owen 05:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't think they would choose Hunter though. People might confuse it with hurricane hunters. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

If it's hans atlantic is frozen confirmed Hal is the best name for a Harvey replacement. Hurricane Hal, I love it <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Harrison is my pick. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:44, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Going to go with Hans, Homer, or Hunter (which would be really funny). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:29, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

If we had a Hurricane Horton...who would hear it?12.144.5.2 14:34, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Don't think Hunter will be chosen though. :P Anyways, I like Hannibal (sounds epic), Harris(on), Herbert and Hyacinth. Hardy, Habib, Halstead, Hampton, Harley, Henley, Hilton, Hyde, Herrick and Huey are fine as well. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

For Irma
We all know Harvey is going to be retired, but Irma is a certain retirement candidate as well, due to her unprecedented devastation in the Caribbean islands and significant destruction in Florida. So, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Irma? Here's a few of my suggestions:

What are your thoughts? Ryan1000 07:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ian(n)a
 * Iara
 * Ina
 * Idette
 * Inga
 * Ilsa
 * Idina
 * Ivy
 * Idona
 * Idra
 * Isha
 * Ignacia
 * Ila
 * Isa
 * Iora


 * Irina, Ivy, Isa or Inga are my picks. Ilsa sounds like Elsa (which replaced Erika). Ignacia can also be used, though it is similar to Ignacio (which is being used in EPac). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * My pick to replace Irma will be Ivy. Owen 08:44, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Added Isa. Ignacia is close to Ignacio, though we saw Martin replace Matthew earlier this year while a variation of Martin (Marty) was in the EPac, so Ignacia and Ignacio being used simultaneously isn't comletely out of the question. Ryan1000 08:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Inga was used in 1961 and 1969, the latter of which was the third-longest lasting TC in the North Atlantic basin. My suggestions are Ilana and Iora, though my personal favourite is Ivy (even though it's already been used 11 times in the WPac and five more times in the SHem). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:27, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Take note that Irma was also used in the WPac for a number of storms, including a C5 in 1971 and a strong C4 in 1981 that killed hundreds in the Philippines (it wasn't retired after that though). So if it seems that (as if) NHC got Irma from the WPac lists, then why not Ivy? However, Irma was used in 1978 in the Atlantic; following that pattern, Inga can be a possible candidate as replacement for Irma. Then again, NHC is somehow leaning towards names that are more current/timely (or even trendy), i.e. Elsa for Erika, Julian for Joaquin, Imelda for Ingrid, Sara for Sandy, Ian for Igor, Martin for Matthew, Owen for Otto, etc. Anyway, this is just in preparation for the impacts of Irma in the northern Lessers & the rest of the Antilles (and eventually U.S.), who knows, Irma might change her mind and turn away from land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hmmm. Ike......? Stacy54

Lol. That made me laugh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I like Idina. It adds to the recent trend of Frozen themed names, lol. Jdcomix (talk) 14:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Isa, Ivy, and Iara are my picks.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:33, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Maybe I'll choose Ivy, Isa, Iora, or Irina. Ilsa sounds too similar to Elsa (to be used in 2021). We are kinda running out of "I" names due to the curse... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Ivy was retired as a typhoon name after a very strong one.Doesn't retiring a name in one basin and then using it in another sort of defeat the purpose?12.144.5.2 15:57, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Some extra names to consider, I personally am a big fan of the next name being Ivy or Inga since Inga has already been used before and not retired.


 * Ibolya - Fairly common female Hungarian name somewhat popular as a landed immigrant name as well.
 * Iggy - Usually thought of this as a male name but there are a few female instances of it too (Iggy Azalea).
 * Ilse
 * Iman
 * Immaculata
 * Imogene
 * Indira
 * Innocence
 * Irina
 * Isla - This has been an increasingly popular name lately.
 * Ivana/Ivanka - (Make a Trump themed list. ;))
 * Ixia
 * Izzy

Again I am rooting for Ivy as the next I name. (If we can use mythological names as well then Io would also possibly be on this list.) --Whiplash (talk) 16:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I am going for either Ivy or Imogen. In my opinion, Ivana is too close to Ivan. Izzy is a variant of Isabel. I also would pick Iola, Idette, or even Inga. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12, that's not unheard of; in the Atlantic, Celia, Dora, and Hilda were all retired on the old naming lists and all 3 of those names are in use in the Eastern Pacific today, though none have been retired since. Also, Typhoon Ike was retired after 1984 and Ike was chosen to replace Isidore in 2002 (but was axed on his first usage in 2008), so it's not impossible for a name to be retired in one basin and used again in another. That has also happened with a number of SHem storms, though I can't name them all. Ryan1000 23:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I bet the NHC would choose some lame oldish name such as Harold or Hank to replace Harvey. I wouldn't want that. I'd prefer Harper. As for Irma, I very much want the replacement name to be Imogen. I quite like Henriette's suggestions, by the way! Why didn't anyone comment? I'd pick one from her list! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

I feel like it would be Ivy. Ivy (like Hank, see above) just seems like a name the NHC would pick, and I'm honestly surprised it hasn't been used yet in the Atlantic, though it has been used a few times in the WPac. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 18:36, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * The NHC suggested Ina and Ivy as possible replacements for Isabel in 2003, as well as Ida (which was chosen), so they may bring up those same names for Irma this time around. Ryan1000 01:53, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Those 2 names would be nice replacements, although Ivy sounds better (even though it has been used in other basins and retired in the WPac). I additionally love the names Izzy, Imogen, Iggy and Indira. "Innocence" would be hilarious if the name was used for a devastating, aka "not innocent" hurricane. That name would be best suited for fishspinners. :P Doubt Ivana/Ivanka would be chosen either due to political reasons. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:34, September 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * So far, I like the following names: Ivy, Inga, In(n)a, Irina, Idina and Imogen. Is(s)a is also a good one. (Issa hurricane, lol. Just kidding.) Btw Steve and 12, Ivy wasn't retired in WPac. It was actually last used in 1994. The list was changed the following year. (@ Steve: Maybe you're referring to Iva, which was retired (or should I say removed?) in EPac.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'd personally pick Idina, Ivy, or Isa for replacements. I don't personally want Ivana or Ivanka due to potential confusion with Ivan, another devastating "I" storm that was retired only 13 years ago, not necessarily due to political reasons (Ivanka Trump). Ryan1000 02:35, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Here are some more: Andros 1337 (talk) 19:01, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Icelyn
 * Idalia
 * Idetta
 * Ieesha
 * Imiza
 * Inca
 * India
 * Indiana
 * Indigo
 * Inocencia
 * Italia


 * I highly doubt India will be chosen as a replacement name due to the country named India, seeing as how the WMO removed Israel from the EPac list in 2001 due to the country with the same name. Indiana is probably in the same boat, due to the U.S. state with the same name. Ryan1000 23:30, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Probably the same goes for Italia as well, since it is Italian/Spanish for Italy. Andros 1337 (talk) 16:19, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Is it too soon after Isabel to suggest Isabella as a replacement name? Otherwise, I'll go with Ivy as my backup pick. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:03, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Why not go with the name Ilyssa as a replacement for Irma? It's my new favorite pick, followed by Ivy and Imogen. The name Inga isn't out of the realm of possibility either. Owen 16:50, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * So while following #Maria on Twitter saw a person with the name Ivelisse. Looked it up to see if it was a common name and apparently appears to be a popular name in Spanish speaking and Caribbean countries. Could be a contender as well. Like this name a lot as well quite unique. --Whiplash (talk) 02:19, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

For Maria
Because we are probably going to be having this discussion anyways. M retirements are great because this letter has SO many names to pick from so instead of listing a bunch of possibilities like with I or H as they don't have as much variety I'm just gonna name my 5 favorite M replacement possibilities.


 * Manon - A French name that would be interesting to see
 * Medea - My runner-up.
 * Minerva - My personal fave.
 * Morgan(a)
 * Myra

Thoughts? --Whiplash (talk) 00:34, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Molly is my first choice by considerable distance, as it happens to be the name of one of my closest friends. Minerva, Melanie, Millicent, Mildred, and Morgan would also be good picks. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:49, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Millie
 * Molly
 * Morgan
 * Mollie
 * Mary
 * Madison
 * Maddison
 * Madelyn
 * Maggie
 * Minerva (please no)
 * Minnie (hell no)
 * Mackenzie
 * McKenzie
 * Magdelena
 * Mathilde
 * Matilda
 * Megan
 * Meagan
 * Mimi
 * Moxie
 * Monique
 * Maxime
 * Manon
 * Monika
 * Monroe
 * Margot
 * Maryse
 * Marta
 * Marit
 * Metta
 * Mette


 * What are your opinions? I would personally choose MONIQUE, MEGAN, MAXIME, MATHILDE, MIMI, MANON or MOLLY.  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 01:25, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Melanie, Molly, and McKenzie are my picks. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:11, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here are my ideas, what do you think?


 * Maxime is a boy's name silly-willy. Maybe you are thinking of Maxine? --Whiplash (talk) 01:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't know how I managed to forget Meg(h)an but that's another name high on my list, probably second after Molly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maude doesn't seem to have been used.I would suggest Mariah,with its different pronunciation,but the "Paint Your Wagon" song with that different pronunciation actually officially spells the name "Maria" nonetheless.So we can't "call the wind Ma-RYE-uh" differently.
 * Melisandre?...Munia?12.144.5.2 03:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sad to see that a beautiful name like "Maria" has to be used for a monster. I choose Molly, Morgan, Madison, Minerva, Mary, Maggie, Mathilde, Matilda, Meghan, Monique, Melanie or Myra. And there could be many more that I like. There's so many "M" names to choose from. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:13, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maria is shaping up to be a strong retirement candidate if the current forecast pans out and Puerto Rico gets a strong cat 4 landfall from this, although thankfully the global models turn Maria offshore before hitting the Eastern U.S. as of now, hopefully that's the case down the road. My favorite pick would be Melanie, but Molly, Morgan, and Megan are also good choices. Ryan1000 09:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Mara, Martha, Maxine/Maxie, Monica, Melanie, Molly, Mandy, Marge/Margaret, Manon, Meg(an). Those are my picks so far. My favorites are Martha and Marge, tbh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

My favorite to replace Maria would be Megan. Owen 16:50, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Some more I guess...

Edit: Forgot about Miranda.
 * Magda
 * Marge
 * Marianna
 * Marina
 * Marla (I and M open time to add Trump's ex wives and make this the Trump themed list we always wanted)
 * Marlene
 * Meg
 * Megara
 * Melania (See above)
 * Missy
 * Misty
 * Mitzy/Mizzi
 * Mona
 * Mylene
 * Myrna

There are a lot to pick from here. --Whiplash (talk) 20:10, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * My best picks are Mae, Margot, Molly, Meg, and Minerva. Possible picks are Martha, Marge, and Matilda. The big no-no is Monica due to the storm of the same name that struck Australia in 2006. Mary is too close to Marie and Maria. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:44, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

My picks. Molly Mitchy Minty Monty Morgan Mexica Merry Mounds Moria Annnnnd..... MONICA!!!!! User:Stacy54 7:57 AM September 19.

Here are some more: Andros 1337 (talk) 23:40, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Macey
 * Maleficent
 * Margarita
 * Marisol
 * Marley
 * Martina
 * Meredith
 * Michelina

So many M names we need to stop... but I can't here are some more:


 * Mabel
 * Makayla
 * Maribelle
 * Marvina
 * Maven
 * Melvinia
 * Morticia - Lul if it gets this name.

I am literally going to be quite intrigued to see what the replacement M name will be. Probably one of the more common ones obviously but will be interesting to see if they pick a less popular one. Do we know what some of the suggestions to the WHO were for Michelle or Marilyn? --Whiplash (talk) 04:31, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Generically
Without regard to particular letters of the alphabet,what do people think makes a good hurricane name? I prefer that they not be particular modern,without being cobwebby.I suppose one might try for "wimpy" names in the course of wishing for storms to be gentle,but I have this sinking (not to 25inHg I hope) feeling that the tropical systems won't care what we call them."Major Hurricane Fluffy has triggered mudslides washing the remains of Resort City into the sea,after the soil was left waterlogged amid the wholesale devastation wrought by Hurricane Bambi and Hurricane Cuddles..." 12.144.5.2 00:10, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

UHHHHH.... (French Narrator) The very next evening... (French Narrator) Sinba? Beware of Maria.

Post-Season Changes
Surprised no one added this section yet, but so far we've had Arlene, her TCR came out two months ago. Anyone have thoughts on what we might see post-season? Ryan1000 15:53, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wonder if will we get TCRs for potential tropical cyclones.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:21, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * An investigation into just how many records Irma set.(Klotzbach has linked to an obsolete PDF of Irma's records on Twitter today).Post-2005 we had some upgrades,if Irma actually outdid Allen they'll want to figure it out.12.144.5.2 19:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna be bold and say Jose will be upgraded to a Cat 5 post-season.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:42, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Thoughts: Cindy may go up to 55 knots, Emily will probably be found to have formed earlier and get an upgrade to 45 knots, Jose will probably be upgraded to C5, and Katia will probably be found to have formed earlier. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:02, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

I wonder what will be done with PTC Ten. Could it potentially be designated as an unnamed subtropical storm? Andros 1337 (talk) 19:16, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

I have the feeling Jose will be upgraded to a C5, it looked more organized the hour before it was upgraded to 155 mph. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:06, September 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * I definitely think that Jose will be upgraded to a C5. I also think Emily and Harvey will get an upgrade. Emily had a 45 kt peak and Harvey had a peak of 120 kt over land. The most likely thing to happen, however, is Irma getting an upgrade to 165 kt. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:15, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure how the NHC will treat potential tropical cyclones after the season; if PTC 10 gets a report it may be upgraded to an unnamed storm post-season. If Jose doesn't make landfall, I'd like him to be upgraded to a cat 5 so we can have at least one Atlantic cat 5 to never make landfall anywhere at any intensity. Ryan1000 23:35, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * After contacting the NHC myself, one of their forecasters said that, if a potential tropical cyclone is not upgraded to a TD or TS in reanalysis, it will only get a best track line and data, but not its own tropical cyclone report. So PTC 10 this year won't get its own TCR (assuming its not upgraded in reanalysis), but it will still get mention in their best track record. Ryan1000 02:36, September 15, 2017 (UTC)