Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: South-southwest of Bali
BoM liking this one, so they have gone with high chance. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:22, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

95S.INVEST
Now an invest.&mdash; Cy10 E-Mail  21:01, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

Probably will be Daphne if I am correct.Allanjeffs 01:40, March 10, 2012 (UTC)

Nope. That's 96P.&mdash; Cy10 E-Mail  02:04, March 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Lua
Well this one sprung up on us, only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but Western Australia should watch out nevertheless. Ryan1000 13:42, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

Expected to peak as a 75 kt C3 cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:06, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

So now Lua It will probably one of the last of the season we can have fun while it is alive even though I am sorry that it will make landfall and bring heavy rains over Australia they need to keep an eye on her.Allanjeffs 19:16, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

For your comment beow Ryan I think Lua has possibillity to become an intense cyclone I usually like cycones that explode but Because it looks like it will be making landfall in Australia am not cheering for her maybe Mitchell if we have him will be a different story.Allanjeffs 03:48, March 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * 17U won't develop; it's inland now. Allan, regarding Lua, it's forecast to only become a 90-100 mph cyclone at it's peak (a C3 on the Australian scale, per what Kiewii said above)^ That could still be destructive, but I don't think it will bomb out to a cat 3 or 4 on SSHS. Still, the folks near Broome, maybe Port Headland, should watch out for this pesky little sh!t. I don't like the looks of this thing. Ryan1000 13:44, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Well actually it is now expected to peak as a 90 kt C4 cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:30, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Lua looks a bit like Cyclone George of 2007 in terms of it's current forecast track and (potential) peak strength, but it formed in a different area. It may pose a threat as severe as George or Laurence, but this will be no Yasi or Tracy. Still, the folks in Western Australia better keep their eye out for this thing. Ryan1000 20:14, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

I knew that she was going to intensify into a big system they better be prepare the folks in Australia.Allanjeffs 20:45, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, this one looks a lot like George. It will probrably make landfall at Port Headland (well, now it's called South Headland), by this Friday or Saturday. I would not expect anyone to die though; even Cyclone Yasi, Australia's costliest cyclone ever, didn't kil anyone directly in it's path. I don't expect anyone to perish after this storm either, assuming everyone heeds the evacuation orders. Ryan1000 23:38, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

That depends Ryan because even Yasi that was strong didn`t kill a lot of people look Grant it was weaker and kill more so Lua could still be very nasty.Allanjeffs 00:07, March 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * Lua looks great on satellite. -- &mdash; Cy10 00:52, March 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * In case anyone's wondering, with Lua, the 2011-12 AUS season is now just over halfway to average (7 tropical cyclones). It'll be interesting to see what she'll do to Australia. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:42, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

BoM have issued a cyclone warning for Mardle up to Bldyadanga as Lua is expected to make landfall as a C3 cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:23, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

I agree people don't take weak storms as seriously as they do strong ones (which was why Washi ended up so bad). However, since Lua will be a large, threatening storm, I would expect the deaths from Lua (if any) to be indirect. I think the folks in WA will take this one pretty seriously. Grant was a slower-moving, more persistent storm, so flooding was a big concern with him, leading to the loss of life. Yasi was Australia's Katrina in terms of damage, but coastal storm surge was the top threat from Yasi, not inland flooding like it is with slower, weaker storms. Regarding the track, Lua seems to be heading more to the east of Port Headland, so the folks in Pardoo could get the eyewall from this cyclone. That's not good. By the time it makes landfall, it might only be a cat 1 (on SSHS), but still, it could cause some pretty extensive damages. Ryan1000 20:17, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua
Now a severe tropical cyclone. -- Cy10  01:47, March 16, 2012 (UTC)

Now a C4. -- Cy10  23:11, March 16, 2012 (UTC)

she is becoming very dangerous and if you see tropical low 17 that is actually inland looks like a tropical storm.Allanjeffs 00:22, March 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Lua (2nd time)
Lua has made landfall and back to a C2. Cy10 E-Mail  14:02, March 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC has issued the last advisory on Lua. Cy10 E-Mail  18:38, March 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * And now down to a C1. Cy10 E-Mail  23:54, March 17, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lua
And gone!-- Cy10 E-Mail  04:23, March 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's not gone, it has just weakened below tropical cyclone intensity. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:40, March 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now it is. Cy10 E-Mail  18:58, March 18, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Lua
Well if it has gone, you put 'Remnants of Lua' as the heading. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:05, March 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low 17U
We'll be lucky to get a named storm out of this one.&mdash; Cy10 00:45, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Hm? Why put two signatures? Anyways, this storm, if it becomes Mitchell (which i'm not expecting), we'd be a tad above average. Lua probrably might become a C1 or 2 at most (on SSHS). Ryan1000 01:59, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

They better not waste another name like they did with Fina. Allanjeffs 03:45, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

It is now inland, so will not develop into a tropical cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:32, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Advisories reinitiated, and there is a high chance of 17U developing into a TC. And Allan, this storm is offshore. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 00:24, March 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * 17U has made a second landfall, but expected to turn back to sea. -- Cy10  02:31, March 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * 17U is no longer expected to form into a TC. Cy10 E-Mail  18:59, March 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * TCFA canceled.-- Cy10 E-Mail  16:41, March 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's gone. Cy10 E-Mail  04:34, March 20, 2012 (UTC)

99P.INVEST
Another invest.-- Cy10 E-Mail  15:54, March 22, 2012 (UTC)

14F.NONAME
It's in somewhere in the ocean.-- Cy10 04:11, March 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14F
Yeah.. obviously. This depression formed last night and has a low chance of becoming Daphne. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:52, March 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * 14F is forecasted to move out of RSMC Nadi later today. Cy10 E-Mail  14:35, March 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * It already has. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:54, March 17, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm 14F
I have no idea whether it is a depression or a storm (since TCWC Wellington say 30 kt and 40 kt). However, it is subtropical based on what the TCWC say. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:11, March 18, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah so it is a subtropical storm, but we wont get this named since there aren't any official advisories, and there never will be. Anyway, see track here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:10, March 18, 2012 (UTC)

Winds now at 50 kt, expected to ease to 35 kt in the next 6 hrs. Producing near 200 mm of rain over the North Island of New Zealand. ASCAT pass. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 00:29, March 19, 2012 (UTC)

Too bad...we didn't get Daphne. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:04, March 19, 2012 (UTC)

Extratropical Cyclone 14F
It's gone. Cy10 E-Mail  06:05, March 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Stop making up a bunch of crap, its clearly still there. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:03, March 20, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 15F
Another disturbance.-- Cy10 E-Mail  19:43, March 20, 2012 (UTC)

How about we give some more details on the storm instead of adding boring stuff? This disturbance is moving southeast with a central pressure of 1004 hPa. This low moved into TCWC Wellington's area of responsibility earlier. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:00, March 20, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not too confident we will se Daphne here, and if we do, it will likely be only weak. The South Pacific is really running out of time. They only have 40 days to get to Daphne and tie all-time record low for number of named storms with the 2003-04 season, with only 2 forming in the basin (discounting crossovers). However, 2003-04 had both of it's two storms become major storms; Cyclone Heta caused massive damage in the Samoa Islands in early January of 2004 when it hit with winds of 160 mph, and Ivy wrecked Vanuatu. Both of them became retired, but this year is the SPac's replica of 1914 in the Atlantic. I'd be surprised if we get to Evan at this point, to be honest. Ryan1000 21:13, March 20, 2012 (UTC)

I have a question which was the last tropical cyclone to make landfall in New Zealand as tropical cyclone not counting extratropical.Allanjeffs 03:57, March 21, 2012 (UTC)

I don't recall New Zealand ever being hit by a tropical cyclone, but the remnants of storms can still cause significant damage there. Bola of March 1988 was probrably the most severe storm in the island's history, but it was more of a non-tropical cyclone when it affected them, and it never (officially) made landfall. Ryan1000 08:53, March 21, 2012 (UTC)

It's gone. Cy10 E-Mail  04:06, March 23, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 16F
This one is near Samoa. Cy10 E-Mail  00:39, March 23, 2012 (UTC)

And probable will be gone before next week start.Allanjeffs 01:57, March 24, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 16F
Fail. Cy10 E-Mail  01:27, March 27, 2012 (UTC)

91P.INVEST
New invest. Cy10 E-Mail  05:44, March 25, 2012 (UTC)

Invest, Invest, Invest... Nothing wants to develop here. I think this year's season has pretty much wrapped up by now. The Australian region and SWIO are starting to calm down too. This one could become Daphne, but I won't count on it. Ryan1000 14:21, March 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 17F
Now a disturbance.-- Cy10 E-Mail  01:12, March 26, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: SPAC: Cy10 E-Mail  22:23, March 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 40% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?
 * Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts.
 * Iggy - <5% - Probably not.
 * Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count.
 * Koji - Negative 10% - No.
 * Lua - 50% - Coin toss.
 * Cyril - 0% - No.

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?
 * 3) Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad.
 * 4) Iggy - 10% - No.
 * 5) Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area.
 * 6) Koji - 0% - No way!
 * 7) Lua - 50% - A coin toss chance of being retired based on what everyone is saying. 
 * 1) Cyril - 0% - No impact.

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)

Time for mine.


 * 1) Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail
 * 2) Grant: 10% - The first to cause damage in this season
 * 3) Heidi: 5% - Meh
 * 4) Iggy: 10% - Some damage and deaths in Indonesia, but other than that... nothing
 * 5) Jasmine: 15% - Caused record breaking flooding in NSW and QLD
 * 6) Cyril: 5% - I'm sorry, but for those saying "No damage", you seriously need to look harder. This storm caused widespread damage to vegetation and plantation in Tonga
 * 7) Koji: 0% - Nah, didn't like this one
 * Lua: 45% - Total destruction to the shipping industry in Pilbara

&mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:05, March 20, 2012 (UTC)

My turn

AUS


 * 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ?


 * 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going.
 * 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him.
 * 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names.
 * 5 Jasmine:3% great intensity and big waves to some islands she definitely is not going
 * 6 Koji 1% What does this do??? nothing you are staying
 * 7 Lua 60% for now damage was not terrible and I want to see more reports but because Australia retires almost everything that is the number I put her of now
 * SPAC
 * Cyril 1% did nothing this was the only storm of this season what a shame it looks like it will be a record for this basin like it was record for the NIO last year.
 * Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Might as well:

Australia: South Pacific:
 * Fina - 0% - Nope.
 * Grant - 23% - Australia has a generous track record, but Grant likely won't go.
 * Heidi - 11% - Wasn't like Grant.
 * Iggy - 45% - Damage wasn't that bad for Australia, but it killed 16 people, so you can't say never here.
 * Jasmine - 5% - Most of the damage was small, despite it's immense strength.
 * Koji - 0% - No impact in the Australian region, and even it's second SWIO name didn't do anything either.
 * Lua - 70% - I heard damage wasn't as bad as it could have been, but because Australia retires almost everything that hits them, Lua gets a 7/10 chance.
 * Cyril - 0% - Fishie.

Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)