Forum:2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Future start
...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:21, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Btw, Fiji Met's website got a new design :D Isaac829  E-Mail  00:15, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

Betting pools
Finally made them. We don't have a first storm formation section though, because we made them too late. Anja already formed. =( Ryan1000 17:13, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

90S.INVEST
Nice way to start the season. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:57, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

This shouldn't become anything, but assuming it can become a moderate tropical storm, it will be named Anais. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, October 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * And it's gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:24, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
New invest. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:24, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 01
First disturbance of the year, and shaping up to be the first storm of the year. But... welcome to the pre-season club. Kiewii! 10:12, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

What is it with off-season storms (Kuena, 29P, and now this?)? Anyway, I hope for a MTS. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:40, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 01
Strengthening still, could be Anais in 12 hours. Now also expected to become an STS. Kiewii! 12:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Now TC 01S per JTWC... they show it strengthening to just below hurricane strength. Kiewii! 16:23, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

This is quite soon; the SHem doesn't usually start until November 15. Personally, I think this should be TD 01S, but MFR doesn't call it that, so it'll stay as TD 01. Ryan1000 18:55, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Now named Anais. 112.201.209.72 10:57, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Anais
45 mph/993 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Strengthening at a somewhat rapid pace per JTWC. Dvorak is at 65 kt, so shouldn't be too surprised to see it at hurricane status by 03z. Kiewii! 14:45, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Anais
Really intensifying now... 45 kt to 65 kt. Kiewii! 18:57, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

This thing looks like a major hurricane already. Madagascar could possibly get a nasty pre-season surprise from this. I think this might have a chance at cat 4 in the next day or two. Then again, this early in the season the jet stream tends to veer these storms south, away from land. It's still a beautiful storm to see. Ryan1000 19:28, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like Anja I think of 2011 or 2010 ? just bigger Anais may become a cat or 4 before weakenig I think a 3 will be her peak.Allanjeffs 21:52, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais
Here we go...Ryan1000 16:09, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

It might become a Category 4 (on the SSHS). Isaac829 E-Mail  16:16, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

Has there been a tropical cyclone this intense so early in the season? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:29, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

As far as I know, it never happened here before. However, the SPac had a similar storm several years ago in October 2006 (2006-2007 season) with tropical cyclone Xavier, a powerful category 4 that tore up a few islands in the SPac in October. The Australian region has never seen something like this so early, but Cyclone Guba of November 2007 did cause severe flooding in Papua New Guinea, and it was a very unusual storm to exist in that area of Australia at that time of year. While it never got past category 1 intensity, it's their closest example to this. Ryan1000 17:13, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

I found out Anais is indeed the earliest SWIO ITC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (2nd time)
It's weakening fast.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:42, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Anais
It is, actually. Kiewii! 18:46, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Anais
Quite a nice start to the season. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:08, October 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 02
It probably shouldn't be named. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:55, November 15, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin
This one sprug up quite fast. A little more than a month after Anais, this storm might become a C1 soon enough. But not sure about MH strength from this one. Ryan1000 15:36, November 24, 2012 (UTC)

I doubt C1 from this storm. Isaac829 E-Mail  16:18, November 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * I actually think it will become atleast a C1. From what I'm gathering from satellite estimates it's already up to 60 knts. Supportstorm (talk) 18:15, November 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'd say Boldwin will become a tropical cyclone (on the SWI scale). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:13, November 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * CAN HE BE A MAJOR STORM?? :O i see him becoming a major? minor c2 is okay too! (why are storms referred to it when boldwin is a guy's hurricane tho? isnt it he?) lol so i see baldwin gettin to major.? 188.223.248.201 23:39, November 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually is weakeing now I was going to make the heading with these storm but it was early in the morning and I was sleepy. there is also an invest in the WPAC that should become something imo.Allanjeffs 04:34, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin
Per what Allan said.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  16:58, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like I (and Liz) totally overestiamted Boldwin. It wasn't that bad of a fail, but it still will be long forgotten impactwise. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:47, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ex-Boldwin
It was that bad of a fail. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:02, November 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04
Seems the SWIO is the only SHem basin that's been alive thus far. New depression there now. Claudia, anyone? Ryan1000 15:09, December 6, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia
Now upgraded to a moderate tropical storm, and named Claudia. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, December 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Intensifying quickly... Ryan1000 02:53, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Here we go again... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:35, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Could be an ITC soon enough. Now a cat 3 up to 115 mph, or 100 mph on MFR's 10-minute scale. At least it's far from land, like Anais was. Ryan1000 17:11, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Now an ITC.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:57, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Claudia (2nd time)
Back to a TC. Isaac829 E-Mail  03:17, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Down and out. Ryan1000 18:23, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 05
New one in the SWIO, likely to become Dumile before heading seaward, maybe as a cat 1/2. Ryan1000 05:11, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Dumile
Strange name. Isaac829 E-Mail  07:12, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Dumile is expected to become a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:02, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Dumile
Now a severe tropical storm... STO12 (talk) 19:45, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

70 mph/975 mb (a Category 1 hurricane (JTWC) with a Category 2 pressure!). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:50, January 3, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Dumile
Long dead. Ryan1000 14:53, January 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
New one in the AUS region, first of their season but likely not going to affect land. Ryan1000 03:14, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Currently expected to parallel the entire western Australian coast as a Category 1 (AUS scale) without making a landfall, staying away from any big harm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:00, December 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * That's good to hear, people. Then the Aussies don't have to worry about Mitch, don't they? Unlike the one in 1998... (I WAS BORN IN 1998 XD) I think he is going to be a tiny baby storm though. :o Princess cadance pixel trot by klopp22-d4zfuk2.gif]][[File:Mlp.png Raraah, Awesome Pony Mlp.png[[File:Princess cadance pixel trot by klopp22-d4zfuk2.gif]] 19:15, December 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Actually, gale force winds are already extending slightly over 100 miles from Mitchell's center in its southeastern quadrant, but I do not know what an Australian region cyclone's average gale diameter is, so it's not exactly a "tiny" storm. Also, Mitchell's current maximum sustained winds is 40 knots and its current central pressure is 994 hPa.  Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:48, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Mitchell has dissipated off the coast of Australia.... STO12 (talk) 03:22, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

Well, that was SO much faster than I expected it to dissipate. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:28, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

I was really surprise too.Allanjeffs 19:05, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

05U.NARELLE
This could possibly become Narelle later this week. STO12 (talk) 04:13, January 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Now named. And Narelle could be a very powerful storm when it nears Western Australia. JTWC forecast currently takes it to a strong cat 4 on SSHS (cat 5 on AUS scale) before passing very close to, or making landfall at, the Exmouth area at Cape Range. Ryan1000 14:53, January 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * While yes, this storm will become powerful, I doubt this storm will make landfall as a tropical cyclone. I am however more concerned about the future monster storm that will be coming after this one. Supportstorm (talk) 01:15, January 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * We might see another big storm, or we might not. GFS sees another storm becoming as powerful as Narelle in several days, and makes that storm (Oswald) hitting the Port Headland area at about 240 hours. But that's really far in advance, too far for me to believe right now. The ECMWF doesn't see anything coming behind Narelle, and they're a little slower to kill her off of Australia's West Coast. Ryan1000 05:03, January 9, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Narelle has been upgraded to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. It is currently expected to become a Category 4 storm (AUS scale) dangerously close to the coast. Carlos or Tracy 2.0? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:40, January 9, 2013 (UTC)

Doubt it. What I am looking foward is the possible formation of Andrea in the Atlantic as the Gfs and Euro has been showing in the past 2 or 3 runs and it looks like some other models may come aboard. hope it happen have your finger cross people.Allanjeffs 20:40, January 10, 2013 (UTC)

Narelle is up to a Category 4 tropical cyclone. I highly doubt 2013 will start like 1978 or 1938 did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:21, January 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * And now a category 5 cyclone. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:41, January 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Narelle now weakening... STO12 (talk) 17:38, January 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Is narelle heading to perth ppl? btw, did she do katrina like damage NARELLE IS DEFO GUNNA GET RETIRED, NAUGHTY GIRL! Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 20:43, January 12, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F
This one is out there too. It's a ways away from 04f, but either way, we should see one, or two, named storms in the next few days. Probrably not 03F though, this one's falling apart fast. Ryan1000 14:46, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Dead now. Oh well... Ryan1000 18:21, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F

 * Have a feeling this will became the SP first significant cyclone. It recently acquired an eye which could signal intensification soon. Supportstorm (talk) 03:08, December 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * GFS sees this storm heading in an erratic direction near Fiji, but not making landfall there. The extratropical remnants, according to the model, could hit New Zeland, but hopefully not that strong when it gets there. Ryan1000 14:46, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Evan
Not a cat 2 cyclone on the Australian scale.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:52, December 12, 2012 (UTC)

Its giving a direct hit to the Samoas and could be a landfall at any moment!Allanjeffs 00:55, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Unfortunately, Evan is now forecast to peak as a cat 3 (on SSHS). Worse, GFS takes the eyewall of this storm passing right over Fiji, which makes for a potentially devastating scenario for storm surge and high winds. It's likely going to pass over the Samoan Islands as a category 2-3 storm (likely to intensify soon), but forecast takes it to 125 mph. They should be preparing right now, this is pretty early to see a storm this powerful. Ryan1000 12:30, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan
Evan is now a category 3 severe tropical cyclone on Australia's scale, or a C2 on SSHS. The American Samoa Capital, Apia, got a 12-15 foot storm surge from Evan. Two people were killed thus far, Fiji's up next. Ryan1000 18:21, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Moving away from Samoa now...hopefully it'll begin to weaken so no more damage is felt. STO12 (talk) 01:28, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Three deaths...next up on Evan's impact list: Tonga. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Err..no, Andrew. More of Fiji. Never mind. Isaac829 E-Mail  06:06, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Fiji is getting brushed harshly by Evan right now, though it's currently expected to go around the Island and not make a landfall there. Still, they're gonna get hit pretty hard and by now, Evan will probrably be retired. Ryan1000 16:43, December 16, 2012 (UTC)


 * Landfall is likely within the next few hours. I agree with Evan being retired now. Supportstorm (talk) 00:17, December 17, 2012 (UTC)

I'm guessing the basin is making up for the lack of storms from last year, Evan is a beast.... O_O STO12 (talk) 04:46, December 17, 2012 (UTC)

Last year's SPac season was incredible. Only three storms existed that whole year, tying 2003-04 for the lowest number of named storms on record (Jasmine, Cyril, and Daphne in 2011-12 >> Heta, Ivy, and Grace in 2003-04). Anyeay, with Evan, it's incredible! 145 mph winds (1-min) and 945 mb? I see a definite retiree candidate! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:00, December 17, 2012 (UTC)

Technically the 2011-12 SPac season and 2003-04 SPac season had only 2 storms in each season, in terms of number of storms that formed there. Jasmine originally formed in the Australian region but crossed into the SPac region, while Cyril and Daphne were the only storms that formed there. In the same way, Heta and Ivy were the only storms that formed in the SPac in 2003-04, but Grace crossed into the region from Australia's area of responsibility. Also, in terms of notability, Heta+Ivy >> Cyril+Daphne. Ryan1000 16:38, December 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Evan (2nd time)
It's becoming extratropical.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  00:51, December 19, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Evan
That was fast. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:41, December 19, 2012 (UTC)

Seems Evan waas one of Fiji's biggest storms, and considered the worst to hit the Samoan Islands since Val in December 1991. He's gone. Ryan1000 21:09, December 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Freda
SPac's picking up steam again, now likely to become a C2 or 3. Currently moving away from the Slomon Islands and expected to move to the west of New Caledonia. Ryan1000 03:14, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Freda is poised to move into the Australian region. It's less than a degree away from qualifying as an Australian region tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:56, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda
With current maximum sustained winds of 80 knots and a minimum pressure of 955 hPa, Freda is taking off like its predecessor Evan. As it currently affects the Solomon Islands with torrents of rain, we are poised to have another desructive storm and the second hypothetical retiree in the making. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:04, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Wow, look at what has happened in the past in the past few hours. Talk about caffeine in the ocean...Freda's already a Category 4 tropical cyclone (AUS scale), packing those 90 knot winds. Not only that, Freda's rivaling its predecessor Evan by 3 mb (Evan's 943 mb pressure vs. Freda's 940 mb pressure)! This means Freda is the strongest storm of the season!!! I hope this doesn't get any worse... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:34, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

It's still expected to miss New Caledonia to the southwest while it heads out to sea, but like Evan, it could also pass close enough to severely affect the island. Pretty strong, but I don't expect this one to be as bad as Evan. Ryan1000 01:07, December 31, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Freda (2nd time)
Falling apart... Ryan1000 05:11, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 45 mph/989 hPa, making it a Category 1 tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:06, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Disturbance Freda
Freda, a 991 mb extratropical cyclone, has degenerated. Amazingly, no damages or deaths have yet been reported. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:50, January 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 06F
Briefly existing in the SPac, but won't become much of anything. Ryan1000 05:11, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07F
Another one, but like 06F, not expecting much out of this. Maybe could become Garry as it heads southeast out to sea. Ryan1000 19:54, January 12, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
This may be a bit too early, but Evan does have a reasonable chance of retirement. Here are my retirement candidates (remember, SWIO storms are NOT retired):

AUS:


 * 1) Mitchell - 0% - Mitchell was such a short-lived, weak, harmless storm there is pretty much no chance of retirement, even by Australian region standards.
 * 2) Narelle - TBA - Still Active

SPAC: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, December 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Evan - 80% - Because the SPac is extremely slacky at retirement standards, Evan is most likely going.
 * 2) Freda - 20% - Well, it did affect some SPac islands, but this is all I'm giving Freda because no deaths or damages have been reported from it.

I normally would discourage making this section so early, but since Evan has a reasonable chance of being retired, I wouldn't be bad with it now. I think he will be retired...The SPac and AUS region have amongst the lowest retirement standards of any basin that retires names. The lowest ever for any place is the EPac, since Mexico rarely retires names and hurricanes rarely hit Hawaii. Ryan1000 14:51, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

He is almost 90% gone in my opinion. they even retire storms that only make 1 million dollar in damage.Allanjeffs 18:32, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine:

AUS: SPAC: Isaac829 E-Mail  04:15, December 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Mitchell - 0% - Fail.
 * Evan - 70% - Tons of damage.
 * Freda - ?

Mine:

AUS: SPAC: STO12 (talk) 03:29, December 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Mitchell: 0% Mitchell dissipated far from land.....
 * Evan: 80% or more, Evan is most likely being retired...
 * Freda: TBA - Still active