Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season

01W.AURING
Formed on January 7, named Auring by PAGASA, and just dissipated earlier today. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:56, January 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Crising
Formed on April 13 over Palau. Was named recently by PAGASA and was recently numbered by JMA. Expected to make landfall in the Philippines sooner or later. 70.190.5.175 02:01, April 15, 2017 (UTC)

Made landfall in the Philippines. 70.190.5.175 16:49, April 15, 2017 (UTC)

Right now it's in the South China Sea heading northeast, and has a decent chance of regeneration before the westerlies kick in. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:08, April 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Muifa
It formed on April 23. It was just upgraded into a tropical storm and was named. :) 70.190.5.175 01:37, April 26, 2017 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
The system moved off of the Philippines. The JTWC upgraded the system as high. The system would most likely form tomorrow. :) 70.190.5.175 23:55, June 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok
The system then intensified into a TD and then to a TS moments after, thus it is named. :) 70.190.5.175 16:59, June 11, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Merbok
It was upgraded into a STS making it the strongest storm of the basin so far. :) 70.190.5.175 16:34, June 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is forecasted to make landfall later on today. :)  70.190.5.175  17:04, June 12, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Merbok
Made landfall and dissipated over China. :) 70.190.5.175 01:59, June 14, 2017 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
As Cindy's remnants dissipate in the Atlantic and 93E nears tropical depression status in the Eastern Pacific, an invest has blossomed in the West Pacific. Invest 97W already has a slightly elongated closed circulation and is developing an increasing amount of convection. Given that the invest is in an environment of low shear and SSTs exceeding 30°C, I will not be surprised if it is already a tropical storm at this time tomorrow. Winds are currently at around 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, with a pressure of approximately 1007 mbar (hPa). Chances of formation are currently high for the next 24 hours, and the JTWC has issued a TCFA. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:31, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * 97W is about a hundred miles away from Guam and it will impact them. It will be a tropical cyclone within 24 hours. :) 70.190.5.175 17:14, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure, 70.190. Shear has increased around Invest 97W, and its organization has decreased. Because of this, the TCFA has been cancelled and the JTWC has lowered the invest's chances of formation to medium for the next 24 hours. Also, the pressure has increased to 1008 mbar (hPa). While SSTs are still over 30°C and it is still plausible that Invest 97W may become a tropical cyclone, it may now take longer for development to occur. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:43, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, it looks like our next tropical cyclone will have to wait. Increased shear and a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), which can inhibit tropical cyclone formation, have both attacked Invest 97W. Models are no longer forecasting any development, and as the shear surrounding the invest is quite high, the system is likely to dissipate within the next 48 hours. The JTWC has consequently lowered Invest 97W's intensity to 10 to 15 knots (1-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1009 mbar (hPa), and the system's chances of formation to low within the next 24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:10, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Invest 97W is still active and it's at low since yesterday. I was expecting it to dissipate but surprisingly, it keeps on going. :) 70.190.5.175 16:49, June 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * It dissipated. :)  70.190.5.175  16:42, June 28, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Looks like we got another system in the West Pacific. 98W is a few hundred miles southeast from the Philippines. The system's chance of formation is at low within 24 hours. :) 70.190.5.175 16:42, June 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * And it dissipated. :) 70.190.5.175 16:22, June 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Um, no it is a TD now but hasn't been designated as 05W yet. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:56, June 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh, well it isn't on the JTWC and JMA but it's on the Wikipedia. Oops, false alarm. :) 70.190.5.175 02:51, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
70.190, based on your comment above and the coordinates of the systems in the JMA TWO, I will assume that Invest 98W is what the JMA is currently classifying as a tropical depression. Winds are currently below 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa). However, they state that this depression is near 30°N and 130°E, which would place it closer to Japan than the Philippines. Regardless, I would not expect any further development from this system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:07, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of the JMA Tropical Depression
That depression dissipated (for real this time). :) 70.190.5.175 21:12, July 1, 2017 (UTC)

July
Similar to the Atlantic and EPAC forums, I will commence this section a little early. Please add storms as they form. :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:31, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
And yet we have another invest that is about hundreds miles away from the Philippines. The system's chance of formation is at medium within 24 hours or so. :) 70.190.5.175 03:00, June 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * I initially thought that this system was the one that the JMA was classifying as a tropical depression, until I saw otherwise. As for Invest 99W, it has consolidated incredibly quickly, and will also have the advantages of low shear below 10 knots and SSTs over 30°C. However, similar to Invest 97W, 99W is also fighting the effects of a TUTT cell per the JTWC TWO, and most models are not forecasting any major development. For all we know, this invest could simply end up suffering Invest 97W's fate in spite of otherwise favorable conditions. Nevertheless, I would love for the West Pacific to produce another tropical storm; things have been rather quiet over here since Nock-ten last December. Intensitywise, 99W's winds are estimated to be approximately 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute), with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:14, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression
It is now a TD according to JMA  and the JTWC has issued a  Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on the system.  :)  70.190.5.175  21:31, July 1, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nanmadol
Now a TS; it's also named Emong by PAGASA. It's forecasted to make landfall in Japan. image :) 70.190.5.175 04:22, July 2, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nanmadol
Upgraded to a STS. Now 60 mph/990 mbar. updated image :) 70.190.5.175 22:31, July 2, 2017 (UTC) Also, where's everybody? :/


 * Also it ties Merbok for the strongest storm in the WPAC. Now Japan will get wrecked by that storm. :) 70.190.5.175 23:04, July 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * And Nanmadol intensifies to 65 mph/985 mbar. It becomes the strongest storm of the season so far. Also, the forecast track is southerner(?) than last time. image :) 70.190.5.175 16:07, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It will make landfall in less than 12 hours. :) 70.190.5.175 16:14, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is now making landfall in Japan. It will dissipate within a day. :) 70.190.5.175 01:31, July 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * We don't seem to pay as much attention to the WPac as the Atlantic or EPac, but if a strong super typhoon forms and threatens land, I'll be here posting about it. Though we haven't seen one thus far this year, the WPac almost always produces at least one cat 5 in a season. Ryan1000 15:31, July 4, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nanmadol
Gone. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:49, July 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also it killed about 30 people. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:23, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
A new one has formed, to the south of Okinotorishima. Ryan1000 15:31, July 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's currently at 35 mph/1010 mbar. The JTWC has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on that. May be named Talas. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:44, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Never mind about that, JTWC stopped issuing the TCFA on that and put it into medium. Still the same wind speed and pressure. Hi!-70.190.5.175 02:46, July 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dissipated. Hi!-70.190.5.175 15:52, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
70.190, you're missing out on some fun! The JMA has begun to track a tropical depression near Iwo Jima. They report winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa). Also, the JTWC is noticing the increasing convection in Invest 93W, as well as the overall favorable environment. Unfortunately, despite SSTs of 29°C and enhancing poleward outflow, both dry air and the invest's increasing latitude will likely prevent any significant intensification. Also, the JTWC notes that no major models foresee 93W's development, although this may be a consequence of the system's hybrid nature. For the time being, the invest has winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, as well as a medium chance of formation over the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:52, July 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sorry, it's because I was focusing in the East Pacific mostly. Anyway, Invest 93W (from JTWC) is hundreds of miles away from Japan. (That's all that I can say.) Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:32, July 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now it's down to a low chance of formation. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:45, July 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * It dissipated. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:22, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh, it's currently active to this date. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:19, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * 70.190, although the JTWC stopped tracking this depression on July 14, the JMA, which is the official RSMC of this basin, has still been monitoring it. This explains why the depression is "still active". Nevertheless, I do not expect the system to last much longer, as it is already quite far north and to the east of Japan and facing decreasing SSTs. I could not find a wind reading from the JMA's tropical weather discussion, but they report that the depression's current pressure is 1012 mbar (hPa). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:58, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * It dissipated. (For real again) Hi!-70.190.5.175 17:13, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
Another invest, 94W, is located to the southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam. This system appears more disorganized than 93W, as the circulation is quite broad and most convection is displaced to the south of the center. The invest is in an overall favorable environment, with low to moderate shear, SSTs of 29-30°C, and weak upper-level (cold-core) outflow. Moreover, the system's proximity to Vietnam handicaps any significant intensification, and will likely not strengthen beyond tropical storm status if classified. Winds are currently approximately 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa) and a low chance of formation over the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:52, July 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now it has a  medium  chance of formation. Hi!- 70.190.5.175  01:22, July 15, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Talas
Now named, the forecast track shows that it will be heading west to hit China. Image Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:19, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now a Tropical Storm for 1-min mean. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:20, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Whoa! While I do admit that the JTWC did acknowledge the rather favorable conditions ahead of Invest 94W and that I was expecting something out of this system, this is already beyond my predictions! Talas is already at 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. Although they do not forecast any additional intensification from Talas, I will not be surprised if this system manages to become a severe tropical storm before landfall over Vietnam. On the other hand, the JTWC, which is currently reporting an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) with gusts of 45 knots (50 mph), forecasts Talas to steadily intensify to 50 knots (60 mph) (1-minute sustained) before landfall, which they now predict will happen over Vietnam. Even though, as the JTWC observes, the storm's circulation is south enough from Hainan Island that land interaction from there should not affect the system, both shear and a TUTT cell will likely impede any significant intensification. The people of China and Southeast Asia should be grateful that Talas formed as close to Vietnam as it did. While these regions may still endure a noticeable impact from this storm, if it had formed further east, they might have been witnessing a powerful typhoon crashing down on their shores. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:14, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * The JTWC has raised Talas's winds to 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Their forecast predictions and logic remain the same, with landfall in Vietnam now expected in approximately 12 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:18, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Talas
Now upgraded to a STS with 60 mph winds and 990 mbar pressure. Hi!-70.190.5.175 17:10, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Talas is bearing down on Vietnam. The JTWC is also reporting winds to 50 knots (60 mph) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 65 knots (75 mph). Both the JMA and JTWC forecast Talas's landfall within the next six to twelve hours, followed by dissipation over Indochina in approximately 24 hours. Already, as the tweet cited in this article reports, Talas is threatening northeastern Vietnam and southern China with heavy precipitation. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:04, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Talas (2nd time)
Talas is now making landfall in Vietnam, expect to dissipate within a day. JTWC issued its final warning on that system. It weakened to a TS (according to JMA); 50 mph (10-min)/990 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:19, July 17, 2017 (UTC)