Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season

September
Adding this section now, since it is already September in the WPac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:59, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits, located way out to sea near Micronesia. Not yet up on JTWC's outlook. But considering all that ocean up ahead, this could be the next big one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:21, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still not yet on JTWC, but who knows... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:41, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Never mind. This invest near Guam won't become anything. Global models are not supporting this and JTWC hasn't shown 97W in its outlook either. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Another Tropical Tidbits invest, situated at the Philippine Sea. Not yet on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:41, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now coded yellow on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:36, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * This may hit the Ryukyu Islands and/or Taiwan in the coming days and enhance the SW monsoon in the Philippines, but this is expected to remain weak. This may become Neneng though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
JMA has upgraded 98W to a TD. PAGASA has not yet named this system though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:16, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Medium chance of formation now. 98W has been coded orange on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:47, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. Here comes Mangkhut... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:51, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Still not yet named Neneng by PAGASA, but it is already on JMA's typhoon outlook page. Forecast to move towards Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands later on. Hopefully this won't exacerbate Jebi's effects. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:56, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * It won't become much anymore... down to code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:23, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Barijat and Neneng will wait. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
Yet another one on Tropical Tidbits, located very close to the International Dateline. Possibly associated with a 0/0 AOI that briefly appeared on the CPac outlook near the dateline, and then crossed it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:17, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Either this invest may take its time or won't develop at all. It has plenty of ocean ahead of it, but models are not that supportive. Shear (I believe) is high in that area near the International Dateline. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ignore what I said earlier. This is now on JTWC's outlook. Code yellow as of now though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:46, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC's outlook says that models are in good agreement in developing this into a significant tropical cyclone. This could be one to watch for in the distant long run, especially with all that ocean up ahead. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:25, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26W
I presume this is now the depression that has been upgraded from a JMA TD to 26W, and this thing will absolutely explode in the coming days...first advisory on it by the JTWC and it's already forecast to become a 155 mph super typhoon, and directly hit Guam to boot. This will probably become another cat 5 down the road. Not good...as if Olivia's threat to Hawaii and Flo heading for the U.S. eastern seaboard wasn't enough. Mangkhut will be one helluva storm. Ryan1000 03:26, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * O.O Dang! And even after the end of that forecast, there is still a lot of ocean ahead. This might get record-breaking powerful... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:26, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mangkhut
And it's here. Taiwan, Guam and possibly even the Philippines, China and the Ryukyu Islands all need to prepare for this one. This may finally beat the (official) three-way tie between Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:24, September 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Some models have shifted to take Mangkhut south of Guam instead. Hopefully this trend continues as impacts will be lessened that way. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:09, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

They've also shifted towards a landfall in Taiwan or even passing south of Taiwan to take aim towards a landfall in mainland China near Hong Kong, if Mangkhut maintains category 4 or 5 intensity by then it could be one of the most destructive typhoons on record. In any instance, we're going to see a very strong typhoon from this in the coming days, and Mangkhut is also the 21st named storm of this highly active Pacific typhoon season thus far. There aren't many other Pacific typhoon seasons that have racked up 21 named storms at this time of year, and we could see a near-record number of named storms at the rate this season is going, especially considering the WPac accelerates in late September, October, and early to mid-November, unlike the Atlantic. 1964 currently holds the record with 39 named storms forming in that season, while 1997 holds the ACE record. I'm not sure if we'll get 18 more storms from here on out to tie or beat that high mark but I'd be surprised if we don't get to at least 30 named storms at this rate. Ryan1000 17:31, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Mangkhut
Now a severe tropical storm, and should be a typhoon shortly. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     20:58, September 08, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut
Now a typhoon, and expected to be a very strong typhoon as well, maybe another STY. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     03:42, September 09, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is such an ominous storm. JTWC forecast track has shifted south; this time it takes Mangkhut to northern Luzon in the Philippines. Not to mention that JTWC sees Mangkhut to reach 165 knots (305 kph/190 mph) at the end of its forecast. Guam is still on the front line. This could potentially rival Pongsona or even Karen as Guam's worst, and may become a repeat of Megi 2010 for the Philippines as well. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a C2-equivalent typhoon with 90/955.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:45, September 09, 2018 (UTC)

Or, in a worst-case scenario, if Mangkhut only slightly misses Luzon to the north but maintains its powerful future cat 4/5 intensity into China, it could possibly make a near-direct hit on Hong Kong next week, and if a cat 5 storm hits there, it would be one of the worst Pacific typhoons on record. As ominous as Flo is in the Atlantic, Mangkhut could even be worse than Flo if Hong Kong is in the firing line down the road. Also, @A2.0, the JTWC still forecasts a 155 mph cat 4 from this, but the forecast gusts are up to 190 mph though. And, if Mangkhut makes the most of the favorable conditions ahead of it, a high-end cat 5 is certainly, and unfortunately, very possible with this storm. Ryan1000 23:36, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * My bad. I looked at the gusts instead of the sustained winds. It is still forecast to peak at 155 mph. The three-way tie between Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest according to JMA may remain for a longer time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:12, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Mangkhut now expected to peak at 140 knots,and potentially plow into Hong Kong and a powerful Category 4 hurricane.No.1 Mobile (talk) 18:26, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Exploding now. JTWC must be regretting lowering their forecast at 21z... Kiewii 22:28, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

I really don't like the prospect of Mangkhut maintaining high category 4 intensity in the South China Sea, especially since the track currently turns slightly more west of northwest late in the forecast period towards Hong Kong. A category 4 or 5 hitting that city would have catastrophic consequences. They had some close calls in the past, but a direct hit to Hong Kong from a very large and strong typhoon hasn't happened in decades. Ryan1000 01:03, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Philippine news outlets are saying Mangkhut (which will be named Ompong inside the PAR) could be the strongest storm to hit Extreme Northern Luzon (Batanes/Babuyan area), do you think Ompong and Mangkhut will be retired after this storm? Jskylinegtr (talk) 03:02, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Most likely. This is an ominous monster, and I really don't like what the agencies have forecasted for this storm. Northernmost Luzon and Hong Kong (and surrounding Chinese areas) are directly in the line of fire. This is becoming a freakin' scary situation. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:56, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Honestly, this is WPac's Florence this year, but this is shaping up as a mix between Megi 2010 and Meranti. And it just tied Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest in terms of 10-minute winds and pressure (120 mph & 915 mb). That tie will certainly be broken now. Mangkhut is now a 155 mph typhoon (1-min) and it is still not done yet; JTWC sees Mangkhut to peak at 150 knots (165 mph/270 kph), and JMA's forecast brings Mangkhut's pressure down to 900 mb by Friday (9/14). Northern Luzon and Hong Kong need to prepare for this one just like how The Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic are preparing for Florence right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC's rolling best track makes Mangkhut a C5. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:28, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * The super-tie has finally been broken. 110 kts (10-min)/905 mbar per JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:06, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to enter the PAGASA zone (the Philippine area of responsibility) later today. Not looking good for northern Luzon, and in the long run, Hong Kong and southern China. Will we see Hato/Usagi 2.0 from this one? I hope not, but it is likely. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:54, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut (Ompong)
Mangkhut might also miss Luzon slightly to the north, and the latest forecast track from the JTWC continues on its southward bend and now takes Mangkhut to the west of Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta it resides upon, which would be a better scenario for China regarding overall impacts. However, it's still too soon to rule out a direct hit to the city (hopefully that doesn't happen, especially since Mangkhut will likely be a cat 5 or strong cat 4 when it nears landfall in southern China). Both this and Florence need to be closely watched over the next few days. Ryan1000 21:28, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * I would be really frightened if it directly hit Hong Kong at that sort of intensity. This may very well become the WPac's Florence. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:43, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * While PAGASA has not yet renamed Mangkhut as Ompong in the Philippines, it is 100% certain that it will do so later today (that's why I am no longer removing the header for this one). Mangkhut is still expected to miss the northernmost tip of Luzon, but things may still change. Hong Kong is still not out of the picture even if the forecast track has already shifted to its south-southwest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:13, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mangkhut is on track to become one of the most intense cyclones in history. Currently has 900 mbar.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     22:56, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not necessarily, 900 mbar isn’t unusual in the WPAC. It was the low pressure of five storms this decade: Sanba, Vongfong, Soudelor, Nepartak, and Haima. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 23:17, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Well, Ompong/Mangkhut's course is similar to Lawin/Haima's track, do you think it could cause enough damage that will guarantee both Mangkhut and Ompong's names to be retired from both lists? Jskylinegtr (talk) 01:12, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * If Mangkhut/Ompong manages to maintain its intensity or even intensify further before landfall, then it will become a definite retirement candidate for both PAGASA and JMA (the two agencies that named this typhoon). Right now, Mangkhut's pressure is still at the 900-905 mb range; some say it's at 900, JMA says it's at 905, and I have also seen someone mentioning that it is sub-900 now (898 mb). Meanwhile, HWRF is going nuts on this, but I am taking that model with a grain of salt. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:22, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Any differences between Ompong and Lawin/Haima's track? Jskylinegtr (talk) 13:51, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Their tracks are very similar until they reach China, where Mangkhut is forecast to continue on a straight westward trajectory, while Haima turned northward while dissipating and its remnants would go back out to sea. Mangkhut also formed further east. Anyway, Mangkhut is now a whopping 150 knots/175 mph according to the JTWC. Pressure is 905 mbar according to the JMA. Northern Luzon and southern China are still being threatened... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:52, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall in Cagayan
Just hours after Florence in Wrightsville Beach in North Carolina, we have another landfalling cyclone, this time in the other side of the world. At 1:40 am local time, (Super) Typhoon Mangkhut has made landfall in Baggao, Cagayan Province. Mangkhut has maintained its strength before landfall, which means that this is probably the strongest storm to hit the Philippines since Haima/Lawin two years ago (which made landfall in the same province). 905 mbars, 270 kph/205 kph. This is a monstrous typhoon, especially that it is also a large cyclone like Florence in the Atlantic (around 800-1000 kilometers in diameter!!!). Even the national capital, Manila, is currently experiencing strong winds and gusts right now. To put into perspective, Manila is roughly 400-500 kilometers south of Cagayan, where the eye of Mangkhut/Ompong is currently at. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:28, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mangkhut has crossed the northern tip of Luzon. Mangkhut is still strong though, still a low-end Category 4. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:58, September 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oh boy, 14 deaths reported so far. Hopefully it doesn't increase... 🙁 Now a weaker (although still relatively strong) system in the South China Sea, 85 knots (100 mph) according to the JTWC and 75 knots (85 mph) by the JMA. Expected to strike South China soon. This destructive and powerful monster is likely getting both its international and PAGASA names retired. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:12, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

After slamming northern Luzon as a cat 5 (fortunately not as populated as other areas of the country), Mangkhut is now heading towards a landfall in southern China as a category 2 strength storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While Hong Kong isn't in for a direct hit from the eye, that city is more mountainous and isn't as vulnerable to storm surge. However, Guangzhou is one of China's largest cities and is located at the mouth of the Pearl River Delta, and that city could get the right-front quadrant of Mangkhut's powerful storm surge, which could make Mangkhut among China's costliest storms if its eastern eyewall strikes the city. You can read Dr. Masters latest blog post for more. Ryan1000 05:05, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Closest approach to HK - Typhoon Mangkhut (continuation)
And Hong Kong has raised Signal No. 10, the third time this decade (after Vicente and Hato). The eye of Mangkhut is still at sea, but Hong Kong and Macau are getting lashed by this storm as of the moment. Mangkhut is now down to a Category 2, with 10-minute winds at 140 kph (85 mph) and 1-minute winds at 155 kph (100 mph). Pressure has increased to 960 mb. At least 25 deaths in the Philippines so far, while at least 111 are seeking treatment in hospitals across HK. PAGASA name Ompong will definitely get retired, and Mangkhut seems to go too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:45, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * More bad news. Death toll now at 49 in the Philippines alone. Several windows of skyscrapers across HK have been damaged. Storm surge also occurred in some areas. More than 800 flights cancelled/rescheduled/delayed. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:35, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Haven't heard how bad storm surge was in the Pearl River Delta near Guangzhou, but if it was anywhere near as bad as some other historic typhoons in the area, then Mangkhut will be among China's costliest typhoons. Ryan1000 19:04, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Mangkhut
JMA has downgraded Mangkhut to STS, as pressure goes up to 980 and 10-minute sustained winds go down to 100 kph. 64 deaths in the Philippines (mostly due to landslides) and 200 injuries in HK. Meanwhile, JTWC has issued its final warning for this system, even though Mangkhut remains a Category 1 typhoon. This is exactly what Florence could have been for The Carolinas had she not weakened. Wind damage, flooding, landslides... such a nasty typhoon. Kalinga province in the Philippines even stated that agricultural damage has reached 1 billion pesos in that province alone. That simply means Ompong will get retired, and most likely, Mangkhut will follow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:10, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Ompong has just caused over 9 billion pesos in damage, so Ompong is guaranteed to be retired as a PAGASA name. Jskylinegtr (talk) 05:09, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Mangkhut
Dead now. What a catastrophic storm, 70 killed so far mostly in the Philippines. Wikipedia mentions that at least 40 of them were killed in a small mine destroyed in Itogon. A sad situation indeed. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:41, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * I have something to ask. If I am not mistaken, there was an AOI that was monitored by the CPHC last month. It was 0/0 but could that AOI and 99W (that became Mangkhut/26W) be the same system? But going back to Mangkhut, the extent of its wrath is now getting clearer. Sadly, the total death toll has increased to 86, with 81 of those deaths coming from the Philippines alone (mostly from Itogon, where the landslide occurred). Total damages are now worth at least $877 million, around >$600M of that total coming from China. The remaining >$200 million came from the Philippines (that's PHP 14.3 billion). Ompong will definitely get axed. Mangkhut may most likely be going too, especially given the trend that started in 2016, when a storm is destructive for the Philippines, its official ("international") name will also be retired (e.g. Sarika/Karen, Haima/Lawin, Kai-tak/Urduja).
 * Side note: Another landslide has occurred in the Philippines, this time in Cebu province's Naga City (not to be confused with the one in Bicol/Camarines Sur). At least 12 had died, dozens still feared to be trapped. There was no rain when the landslides occurred, but it is believed that the [southwest] monsoon rains enhanced by Mangkhut/Ompong contributed a lot to this disastrous landslide incident, the second one to occur in PH in 5 days.
 * EDIT: Steve had already somehow answered the question in the EPac forum, but neither the NHC/CPHC nor JTWC have confirmed yet whether the Lihue AOI really developed into Mangkhut. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:14, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * rip to those who got killed :/
 * also this will be kicked from the lists. no more vonfong ompong rhymes :( --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:47, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Code yellow on JTWC, located in the South China Sea near the Philippines. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Upped to code orange. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:54, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Now a TD per JMA. Still code orange on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:40, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. Not yet recognized by PAGASA though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:54, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 27W
Tropical Tidbits and Wikipedia both say that 90W is now 27W, yet I could not find it on JTWC's typhoon page. Likely to be named Neneng by PAGASA (if it ever recognizes this as a TD). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 27W (Neneng)
Now named by PAGASA. Expected to become Barijat in the next couple of hours and/or days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:46, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barijat (Neneng)
Officially named by the JMA. ~ Roy25    Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     03:19, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to slightly intensify before hitting south China and northern Vietnam. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:58, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Barijat (Neneng)
Already almost dead, but JMA keeps it up as a TD. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:55, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barijat (Neneng)
Gone now. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:46, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
Code yellow as of now. We might get another big one from here, just like Mangkhut. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC's outlook says that models don't show intensification, but you never know... ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:45, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gone from JTWC, still present in Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:48, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * No longer on Tropical Tidbits. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:57, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
As DJ Khaled says, "anotha one"... on Tropical Tidbits. Not sure where it is exactly at though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:42, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well, it's east-southeast of Guam according to the JTWC outlook. Low chance currently. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:44, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Jumped to code orange now. This may be another big storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:45, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

Code red now, TCFA issued. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:39, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 92W)
And JMA upgrades 92W to a TD. Will likely evolve into 28W and become Trami later on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:06, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 28W
This is now a TD per the JTWC. It is forecast to become the next super typhoon, with winds reaching 150 mph within the next five days. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:58, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Trami
Upgraded to a TS by both JMA and JTWC. This may become another big one down the road. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:14, September 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * Like with Mangkhut, conditions are very favorable ahead of this and it's already forecast to become a 155 mph super typhoon by the JTWC, but as with Mangkhut, cat 5 intensity is very possible; I'd be surprised if it doesn't become another 5. Trami will likely recurve northeast and strike southern Japan down the road as a weaker but still potentially dangerous storm, so they may have to watch out so this doesn't become another Jebi. Ryan1000 22:40, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Trami
Now a severe tropical storm. This is bound to become the next big one. Expected to be named Paeng once it enters PAGASA's jurisdiction. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:38, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Trami
Up to a typhoon on JMA's scale. The ensemble model tracks have shifted southward from a recurve to southern Japan to a landfall in Taiwan, but still, this could easily become a cat 5 later this week, and Trami's slower than usual movement could be a big problem for the island, especially in flooding rains. Ryan1000 05:43, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here comes another insane monster... JTWC bringing it to 140 knots (that is 160 mph). Taiwan has to be prepared for this potentially devastating beast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:32, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Do you think this storm can be compared to Usagi/Odette in 2013? Jskylinegtr (talk) 08:21, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Trami (Paeng)
And it has entered PAGASA/Philippine territory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:11, September 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it exploded to a cat 4 already, 140 mph (110 by ten-minute sustained winds) and 935 mbars. Likely to be a cat 5 soon. The JTWC's forecast has now shifted to bring Trami just north of Taiwan, maybe the (initial) ensemble runs of the GFS weren't so out of touch after all. It's possible Trami could recurve to Japan later on, but it'll be much weaker than cat 5 strength by that time. Ryan1000 21:26, September 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now a super typhoon and probably near or at its peak intensity. It does appear it'll recurve north of Taiwan, but the Ryukyu Islands will still be highly impacted. I don't like its threat to Japan in the very long term. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:33, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Trami is developing an annular-like appearance on satellite imagery, and the storm is also stationary and it's still a 160 mph cat 5 to boot. It's now expected to eventually recurve and strike southern Japan, but unfortunately the waters of the East China Sea could be warm enough to allow Trami to maintain category 3 or even 4 intensity when it reaches mainland Japan. Not good... Ryan1000 09:26, September 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * Weakened to category 3, but Trami has a huge eye on satellite imagery and is still forecast to maintain cat 3 intensity when it reaches Japan. Worse, it may also hit Osaka, the city recently ravaged by Jebi. Ryan1000 12:59, September 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Trami has such a big eye. Still a C2 as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:43, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, it looks so big on JTWC satellite... currently impacting the Ryukyu islands at the moment. Mainland Japan should watch out. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:55, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it is still a Category 2. This is really not looking good... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:56, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now it's accelerating towards mainland Japan with C2-force winds. Hope they make it through ok. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:19, September 30, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Trami
Dead. Ryan1000 11:17, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
Another invest according to Tropical Tidbits. This is near the International Date Line though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:01, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 93W)
Still not present on JTWC's outlook page but this invest has already been classified as a TD by JMA. We may see Kong-rey from this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:35, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oops, it is actually 93W not 98W. Sorry. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:53, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:33, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued, code red now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:59, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 29W
Forgot to update, but 93W became 29W. JTWC has issued its final warning as of this writing though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:19, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of 29W
Dead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:44, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
Yet another invest in the open Pacific. Not yet on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:53, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:19, September 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued. Code red. Another one to watch out? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:52, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 30W
And it is now a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:33, September 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * JTWC makes this a powerful 145 mph category 4 typhoon following in Trami's footsteps, but this storm (Kong-Rey to-be), may not become a 5 due to the cold wake left behind by Trami. Still, southern Japan may need to watch out. Ryan1000 06:30, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 30W
Upgraded to a TS by JTWC; still not a TS on JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:42, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * This looks like another extremely powerful system in the making. In the long term, this appears to be headed towards the Ryukyu Islands and might be yet another Japan hit... not looking good. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:58, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kong-rey
And now it's Kong-Rey. Ryan1000 14:05, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Kong-rey
Kong-rey is spelled with a lowercase "r". Anyway, already a typhoon and I do not like the looks of this system in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, September 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Officially a typhoon on JMA. This is intensifying rapidly... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:55, September 30, 2018 (UTC)

Up to category 3 intensity, forecast peak up to 150 mph, but it could turn towards the Koreas down the road instead of Japan on Kong-rey's current projected path. Ryan1000 11:22, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Kong-rey (Queenie)
And Kong-rey has entered PAGASA's area. Not expected to cause any direct effect in the Philippines though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:50, October 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * And Kong-Rey is now a cat 5, at the same time as Walaka. Although Kong-rey is still forecast to weaken before striking South Korea down the road, 4 of the past 5 named storms in this basin became cat 5's. That's incredible. Ryan1000 04:37, October 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * This intensified about as rapidly as Walaka! Once again, the Ryukyu Islands should prepare for significant impacts, and maybe South Korea as well. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Kong-rey is down to cat 3, but the latest track also is projected to take it through the Korea Strait, so Kong-rey's circulation and strongest impacts might pass between SoKo and Japan instead of a direct landfall in either country. That'd be a best-case scenario. Ryan1000 13:36, October 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * As a side note, when Walaka and Kong-rey were cat 5's yesterday, it marked the first time in which a cat 5 was active in both the CPac and WPac at the same time, per a blog post from Dr. Masters. In that post, it is also mentioned that there were only 6 other instances of simultaneous cat 5's worldwide, and only 5 within the same basin: Super Typhoons Ivan and Joan in October 1997, Tropical Cyclones Ron and Susan in the SPac in early January 1998, Super Typhoons Owen and Page on November 27, 1990, Super Typhoons Lucy and Mary on August 18, 1965, and Super Typhoons Pamela and Nancy on September 11, 1961 (Carla may have also been a 5 in the Atlantic at that time, but according to the hurricane reanalysis project video that Dylan mentioned on Beryl's section in the July archive of the Atlantic this year, Carla will likely be downgraded to cat 4 in reanalysis). Ryan1000 14:41, October 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Woah, I didn't realize simultaneous C5s were that rare. Considering how inactive the CPac usually is, it seems like an almost once-in-a-lifetime event for a C5 to be active in both the CPac and another basin. Anyway Kong-rey is down to a weak 75 mph typhoon according to JMA, and the JTWC has downgraded it to a tropical storm as it moves through the Ryukyu Islands and expected to affect South Korea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Kong-rey (Queenie)
Down to STS intensity according to the JMA, but hitting South Korea at the moment. Should turn extratropical pretty soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kong-rey
Dead and gone. Hopefully impacts weren't too severe in SoKo. Ryan1000 21:48, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Since we've got 8 storms so far and Maria is looking like our first serious retirement candidate this year, we can begin this section now. Without further ado, here are my calls so far:

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
JMA: PAGASA: And that's my calls so far. Anyone else have thoughts? Ryan1000 16:55, July 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Bolaven - 20% - Caused some damage in the Philippines, but it wasn't as bad as some of the late-season storms last year (Kai-Tak and Tembin), and I'm not seeing a retirement in this case.
 * Sanba - 10% - Wasn't as bad as Bolaven, but gets credit for the minor impacts regardless.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Caused some rainfall over a few pacific islands, but no damage or deaths were reported.
 * Ewiniar - 32% - Was a somewhat destructive flood event for parts of southern China, but it wasn't as severe as some past storms in the country (like Hato last year, for example). Gets credit, but I don't think it'll be retired.
 * Maliksi - 1% - Killed two in the Philippines, but was otherwise a fishspinner.
 * Gaemi - 2% - Caused minor damage and killed 3 people as it passed southern Taiwan, but it won't be retired for that.
 * Prapiroon - 1% - Killed a person in South Korea and contributed to extensive flooding in Japan, but it wasn't directly responsible for most of the damage there.
 * Maria - 28% - Current damage projections are only at 491 million dollars, even less than Ewiniar, but that may increase later on. And fortunately, only 1 person was killed. I was fearing far worse from Maria since she was stronger and bigger than Fitow 5 years ago and it hit the same area, but I guess not, thankfully.
 * Son-Tinh - 22% - It's unfortunate that this storm killed more than 60 people with over 275 million dollars in damage, but that may not be severe enough for retirement; they've snubbed some worse storms in the past that hit the area. Still, it gets credit.
 * Ampil - 12% - Caused around 175 million dollars in flood damage to China with 1 death, but Ampil doesn't appear to have been too severe for them; it was not as severe as Ewiniar, let alone Maria, earlier in the season.
 * Wukong - 0% - Never affected any land.
 * Jongdari - 8% - Jongdari was one of only a small handful of typhoons to attack Japan from southeast to northwest (along with Lionrock 2 years ago, Ben in 1983 and Viola in 1966), but it was only an 80 mph storm when it did so, and it doesn't seem to have been too serious for them, unlike the flooding they saw earlier in the month.
 * Shanshan - 4% - Passed just east of Tokyo, but with that said, its downward wind flow pushed water out of the bay, minimizing flooding and there likely wasn't much wind damage either.
 * Yagi - 3% - Caused some damage and 2 deaths, but it probably won't go.
 * Leepi - 4% - Caused some minor flooding in Japan, but likely won't be retired.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Caused some flooding in southern China from its stalled motion, but likely won't be retired.
 * Rumbia - 40% - Woah, never mind my previous post, Rumbia actually turned out to be the costliest storm of the season so far, with over 1.3 billion dollars in heavy flood damage and 22 deaths to boot. Not a first for China, but still destructive regardless.
 * Soulik - 15% - 80 million in damage or so probably won't cut it.
 * Cimaron - 10% - Hit Japan as a cat 1, hopefully Cimaron wasn't much worse than Jongdari.
 * Jebi - 90% - Caused at least 2.3 billion dollars in damage and many deaths when it struck the Osaka area of southern Japan, one of the city's worst typhoons on record. Likely to be retired after this year.
 * Mangkhut - 85% - With over 100 people killed and over 1.5 billion dollars in damage, Mangkhut may likely be gone after this year.
 * Barijat - 4% - Wasn't too serious for southern China around Hainan Island.
 * Trami - ?? - Hit Japan as a typhoon, but overall damages are unknown. Unfortunately, 2 people have been killed so far.
 * Kong-rey - ?? - Still active, but forecast to hit or pass just south of South Korea down the road as a weakening typhoon, along with the Ryukyu islands.
 * Josie - 100% - Current damages are projected at 3.82 billion PHP, which meets their retirement criteria. So, bye.
 * Ompong - 100% - Caused over a billion PHP in damage, like Josie, so this is out too.
 * All other names - 0% - Didn't met the PAGASA retirement criteria of 1 Billion PHP damage and/or 300 deaths.

Roy25's prediction
Might as well add mine with Maria nearing land, and may be devastating.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???

JMA:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bolaven ( 15% ) - Had caused some damage in the Phillippines, but this won't be retired
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba ( 10% ) - Killed quite alot but this also won't be going
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat ( 0% ) - Caused no damage and deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar ( 8% ) - Killed 8 and caused just over half a billion, but I doubt this name will go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Maliksi ( 0.001% ) - Didn't do too much other than 2 deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi ( 0.001% ) - Same as Maliksi, even with one extra death
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon ( 9% ) - While stronger, other than 1 death, this storm didn't do too much
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria ( 37% ) - As of now had caused $491 million in damage, and only 1 death so far (feared there would be more, but fortunately that didn't happen as of now).
 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh ( 10% ) - While it regenerated, it has caused 10 deaths and $17.5 million, but this won't go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Ampil ( 13% ) - Had caused 1 death but $173 million in damage, but I have doubt this will go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Wukong ( 0% ) - Didn't do much, pretty much a fish
 * <font color="#ffe775">Jongdari ( 8% ) - Only caused $54 million in damage, but this won't be retired.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Shanshan ( 0.001% ) - Hadn't caused any damage or deaths, but affected land, but this name is staying
 * <font color="#00faf4">Yagi ( 9% ) - Damage similar to Jongdari, but 4 deaths, but even then, this is staying
 * <font color="#ccffff">Bebinca ( 17% ) - Did a lot of damage at $266 million as well as 10 deaths, but retirement is pretty unlikely
 * <font color="#ccffff">Leepi ( 0.001% ) - Didn't do anything other than affecting land
 * <font color="#00faf4">Rumbia (<font color="#cf0">47% ) - Woah, this TS did $1.3 billion in damage as well as 22 deaths! Now the costliest storm of the season thus far
 * <font color="#ffc140">Soulik ( 17% ) - Caused $80.5 million in damage, but this is staying
 * <font color="#ffc140">Cimaron ( 1% ) - Didn't do too much other than affecting land
 * <font color="#ccffff">Jebi (???) - Currently active

PAGASA
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Josie (<font color="#500">100% ) - Caused ₱4.66 billion in damage, which exeeds the ₱1 billion requirement to retire a PAGASA name.
 * Rest of the names used this season ( 0% ) - Didn't met PAGASA requirement for retirement

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

-- Roy 25  18:32, July 10, 2018 (UTC) 03:16, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0 WestPac retirement projections
JMA names
 * Bolaven - 5% - Minor damage; Philippines has seen worse.
 * Sanba - 5% - Same as above.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Early super typhoon, but also a fishspinner.
 * Ewiniar - 20% - There is substantial damage in China, but China has seen more ferocious storms than this.
 * Maliksi - 5% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon in the Philippines and killed 2 people, but I don't think it will be decomissioned from the list. Storms such as Saola & Haikui '12, Trami '13, Fung-wong '14, Chan-hom & Linfa '15 and Doksuri '17 caused more disruption to the Philippines and did not get retired; I think the same thing applies to Maliksi.
 * Gaemi - 1% - 3 deaths, minor damage... but still, Gaemi will stay.
 * Prapiroon - 15% - No direct effects but this storm exacerbated the massive rain event in Japan which has killed more than 200 people. But if its 2000 incarnation did not get the boot, why should its 4th incarnation get it?
 * Maria - 25% - The missing link between the fishspinner Marie in 2014 and the devastating Atlantic Maria last year. A great spectacle, and fortunately not as destructive as everyone feared. Caused notable damage ($491 million), but the low fatality count would surely lessen Maria's chances of retirement. However, the U.S. may still request to remove this (a la Yanyan/Tingting/Vicente) due to the eponymous Atlantic storm, especially that they themselves actually submitted this name.
 * Son-Tinh - 30% - Such an erratic and deadly storm, despite remaining relatively weak. The percentage could have been higher had it not affect Vietnam, a country notable for its lax retirement policy, not to mention that it is the same country that contributed the name.
 * Ampil - 10% - Nah, I don't see this going, despite causing some indirect troubles in the Philippines.
 * Wukong - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Jongdari - 10% - Japan got lucky from this one. Damage is lower than feared, and no fatalities occurred.
 * Shanshan - 10% - Almost same with Jongdari. Shanshan may have threatened the Tokyo area, but impacts remained minimal.
 * Yagi - 15% - Had impacts in China (directly) and the Philippines (indirectly), but not enough to warrant retirement.
 * Leepi - 5% - Made landfall in Japan, but little to no damage has been reported.
 * Bebinca - 20% - Son-Tinh lite. Less deaths (only 3), but costlier than Son-Tinh as Bebinca also affected China. The damage cost isn't that high though.
 * Rumbia - 50% - Literal 50/50. Partly because of the relatively low death toll but high damage, but also because it did not peak past tropical storm status. However, Rumbia is now the costliest of tbe season (so far). But stronger and costlier storms like 2013's Usagi got snubbed. This all depends on China's prerogative
 * Soulik - 15% - Affected China, Japan and the two Koreas, but only did little damage.
 * Cimaron - 10% - Made landfall as a typhoon, but no reports of any casualty/damage.
 * Jebi - 45% - Considered as Japan's strongest since Yancy in 1993 (even if Songda, Ma-on and Tokage in 2004 were much stronger at landfall), Jebi inflicted severe damage in Osaka – Japan's second largest city – and its environs (Kansai region). 17 deaths and at least $2.3 billion worth of damage so far, which means that Jebi could have been an easy retirement candidate. However, Japan has been somewhat lax in retiring names, as evidenced by 2011's Talas and 2017's Lan, which were both as destructive as Jebi but still did not get the boot.
 * Mangkhut - TBD - Still active, but given its impacts in the Philippines alone, I don't think Mangkhut will return when this list gets reused. In Hong Kong, which had its 3rd T10 (Signal Number 10) this decade from this typhoon, had reported some notable damage. Worse, Mangkhut's potential effects to the rest of southern China (especially Guangdong) could make more havoc.
 * Barijat - 1% - Weak storm that affected land but did not cause any significant damage.

PAGASA names
 * Agaton to Caloy - 0% - Did not meet the criteria.
 * Domeng - 5% - Did not meet the criteria but I still gave it 5% because maybe – just maybe – PAGASA strikes this out of the list due to its relatively notable impacts.
 * Ester, Florita & Gardo - 0% - Same as the first 3 storms of the year.
 * Henry & Inday - 20% - Percentage could have been higher had these two storms directly affected the Philippines. However, it is a combination of these two storms and the SW monsoon that did the destruction, and the damage total for that did not even reach a billion pesos for each of these storms.
 * Josie - 45% - While Josie met the PHP 1 billion criteria, that damage cost is only indirectly associated to the storm. It was the southwest monsoon that inflicted most of the damage.
 * Karding - 40% - Caused some disruption to the Philippines by also enhancing the southwest monsoon, but I don't see it getting axed by PAGASA, especially given the fact that despite the massive rainfall recorded, the damage only reached a million pesos. EDIT: Damage totals from the combined effects of Karding and SW Monsoon have reached almost a billion pesos (996 million to be exact).
 * Luis, Maymay & Neneng - 0% - Passers-by that did not do any damage to the Philippines.
 * Ompong - 100% - One province alone already estimated at least PHP 1 billion worth of damage; couldn't see any reason for Ompong to stay.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:59, July 15, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:22, September 16, 2018 (UTC).

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: Based off of JTWC intensities. <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

International:

To reduce clutter and save space, only tropical systems that were declared at least a TD by both the JMA and JTWC are included.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">6% - Only slight impacts, not enough to get retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Weak name stealer, JTWC did not even consider this a tropical storm. It did cause some impacts which makes it somewhat memorable.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - More deadly than Bolaven, but less damage. The deaths slightly boost up my percentage. Another non-candidate for retirement, though.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - A tiny bit stronger than Bolaven, but still a weak fail. Like Bolaven, caused slightly memorable impacts.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement: <font color="#77A">0.001% - Basically a fishspinner, except for tiny impacts in Palau, the Caroline Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Amazing super typhoon in late March. As a bonus, it almost completely avoided land. Gets more credit for time of the year. A C5 would have earned it an "EO" rating.


 * <font color="#00faf4">04W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Although it was a piece of junk, I do have to give it a tiny bit of credit for not stealing a name despite JTWC considering it a tropical storm.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#3F0">32% - $573 million is a pretty significant damage bill which makes retirement an outside possibility. 15 deaths as well. But they have still seen much worse, plus this was a weak storm.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Another weakling, but with memorability that prevents it from falling to lower grades.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Maliksi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.5% - Impacts were insignificant. 2 deaths unfortunately.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Failed to make typhoon status, despite being so close.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.7% - Like Maliksi, insignificant impacts and few deaths. One additional death slightly increases my percentage.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Stronger than previous tropical storms, but still pretty weak overall.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * Retirement: 5% - 4 deaths and at least $10 million in damage. Also contributed to the devastating Japan floods.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - At least it reached typhoon intensity by both agencies, even though it was near the bare minimum for typhoon strength.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0F0">26% - Looked like it would be a monster, but damage and deaths appear to be less than initially feared. Devastation was even less than Ewiniar, and deaths were much less than Ewiniar.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Reached an incredible intensity, and would have been EO if it stayed out to sea.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0FF">15% - Very deadly, with 68 deaths and $235 million in damage. Since it mainly affected Vietnam, which has never retired a storm name before, I highly doubt this will be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - Credit for unexpectedly moving back out to sea and regenerating. However, the deaths and devastation prevent the grade from being any higher than this.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ampil :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0AF">12% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - Some credit for reaching STS status according to the JMA.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">13W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - At least it didn't steal a JMA name.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Wukong :
 * Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F90">D+ - Became a borderline typhoon, and only JMA failed to recognize it as a typhoon.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Jongdari :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0AF">10% - $100 million still isn't enough for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#3F0">B+ - Awesome track consisting of loops and a rare approach of Japan from the west. That slightly boosts the grade.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">16W :
 * Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired due to lack of name.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Shear took a toll on the poor system. At least it didn't steal a name.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Shanshan :
 * Retirement: 1% - No damage or death reports were ever released. But considering how it moved near Tokyo while still at typhoon strength, it was probably somewhat damaging.
 * Grading: <font color="#9F0">B- - Did a satisfactory job intensity-wise.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Yagi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">7% - $74 million dollars in damage and 7 deaths should not be enough for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Weak failure that barely even tried. It did last over a week though.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Leepi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#77A">0.1% - No damage or death reports were ever released, although it did strike Japan and South Korea.
 * Grading: <font color="#F90">D+ - Unofficially reached typhoon strength.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Bebinca :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0FF">19% - Did a sizable amount of damage and killed 16 people. Retirement's highly unlikely, but it ain't impossible.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - At least it reached STS status and wasn't a total name waste.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Rumbia :
 * Retirement: 50% - Oh no, this was a VERY destructive as well as deadly storm, especially for its intensity. Retirement might be likely due to $1.34 billion dollars in damage and 22 deaths, which puts it above Ewiniar (the previous most destructive storm of the season), but was less than Jebi and Mangkhut later on. Since China is not very good with retirements and this was a weakling, I'm giving Rumbia a coin toss.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Although it peaked short of STS intensity, it isn't a complete fail, especially considering the impacts.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Soulik :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - Did some damage, but it shouldn't be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - Reached a nice intensity which is worthy of a satisfactory grade.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Cimaron :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">5% - Still unknown damages on Wikipedia, but a typhoon striking Japan shouldn't go without at least some damage.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - According to JMA, it peaked at the same exact intensity as Soulik (100 mph/950 mbars).


 * <font color="#5ebaff">24W :
 * Retirement: N/A - Not named.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Not that much of an epic failure, since 6 deaths were reported and some damage.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Jebi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#F00">72% - Looking like a likely retirement candidate due to how intense it was when it hit Japan (most intense since Yancy in 1993). 17 deaths have been reported after it hit Japan with damages exceeding $2.3 billion.
 * Grading: <font color="#096">A+ - A very powerful system that is tied with Maria and Jelawat for most intense of the 2018 season. Japan impacts prevent the grade from getting higher than this.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Mangkhut :


 * Retirement: <font color="#903">85% - A catastrophic storm for Luzon and also damaging for other areas, I would be shocked if it doesn't go after this year.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Got insanely powerful, but knocked from the EO rating for its impacts.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Barijat :
 * Retirement: 1% - Likely wasn't too bad for the areas it affected.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Meh... a lame failure.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Trami :
 * Retirement: <font color="#3F0">30% - Hit Japan at quite a concerning intensity. Preliminary chance for now, may rise or drop once damage totals are released. But it is likely going to go down as a destructive storm for them, hopefully not like Jebi though.
 * Grading: <font color="#096">A+ - Another fantastic super typhoon.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">29W :
 * Retirement: N/A - Not named.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Failure fishie, but at least a name wasn't stolen.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Kong-rey :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.

PAGASA: Retirement percentages only.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Josie : <font color="#000">100% - Wikipedia reports ₱4.66 billion in damage, which meets their retirement criteria.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Ompong : <font color="#000">100% - 33.7 billion PHP reported in the Philippines, which ranks this as the 4th costliest Philippine typhoon on record. Not to mention over a hundred deaths. This is OBVIOUSLY gone.
 * No other names meet PAGASA's retirement requirements of ₱1 billion in damage and 300 deaths.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized. These fonts don't apply to PAGASA storms because the only individual storms included in the PAGASA section are those that will be retired.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 05:46, October 2, 2018 (UTC))

Harvey's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#666">0% or <font color="#666">N/A, <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9% , <font color="#00FFFF">1-9% , <font color="#00D5D5">10-19% , <font color="#00A0A0">20-29% , <font color="#00A000">30-39% , <font color="#FFC800">40-49% , <font color="#FF8800">50-59% , <font color="#E80000">60-69% , <font color="#B40000">70-79% , <font color="#800000">80-89% , <font color="#000000">90-99% , <font color="#000080">100% 

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

JMA Names:


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00FFFF">7%  - Only did minor damage. Unlikely to be retired.
 * Grade:  F  - Weak name stealer that was not even considered a TS by the JTWC. Not any lower because it at least spanned two calendar years.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00D5D5">12%  - Like Bolaven, it's a weak tropical storm that caused minor damage, but a higher death count and a lower cost total. Also unlikely to be retired.
 * Grade:  F  - It's also a weak name stealer like Bolaven. Not really memorable.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement:  <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001%  - Aside from the minor impacts to Palau, the Caroline Islands and the Mariana Islands, there was no other impact caused by this storm.
 * Grade:  A+++  - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">04W :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A 
 * Grade:  F  - The storm mostly failed. But I do give it credit for not stealing a name.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00A000">37%  - Currently the most destructive, causing $573 million USD damage and 15 deaths. It does have a chance of getting retired.
 * Grade:  A+++  - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Maliksi :
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh :
 * <font color="#ccffff">Ampil :

PAGASA Names: No name meets their retirement criteria yet.

Notes:

Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  06:05, July 23, 2018 (UTC)

SuperMarioBros99thx's update on Son-Tinh
I am sorry if i had to say this which should have been off-topic because i recently noticed that this storm was a monster and not just a simple one so i had to bring this.​​​​​​

Recently in Wikipedia i, as SMB99thx essentially changed Son-Tinh's page into something of more of a disaster than it should be. When i am reanalyzing about this storm, i noticed that Laos dam collapse is highly connected to this storm, not just related into it. There is a fact that Laos dam collapse' deaths are included in the death totals and linked to the article of that dam collapse, i noticed that Laos dam collapse damages are not updated and found more interesting details about the collapse for example are the missing people. As such i've changed the much as i could including linking the storm into another deadly storm (see also section), Severe Tropical Storm Linda. I came into the conclusion that this storm is severely underestimated, thus i had to make a major changes like that. Thus, i had to bring that storm for attention here, first off in Hurricanes Wiki.

I would love to bring it more but i had to share the information in here first. Hopefully you will know how truly disastrous this storm it is. I expect grade changes and some ratings changes but overall i think this storm is unlikely to retire as most have said about it (Indochina has a poor record of retiring these disastrous storms). Anyways, thanks for receiving this news item. Son-Tinh is a Washi's counterpart of Indochina, but unlikely to get retirement anytime soon. Feel free to remove this section if that change were to be not accepted and reverted, but otherwise it's okay.

Thanks,

05:26, August 12, 2018 (UTC) i had a broken signature for now, signature coming soon

Jsky's retirement predictions
Although many storms did not do enough damage, i would post those that are destructive. For PAGASA names:
 * Maria, somewhat low chance of retirement
 * Jebi, likely getting retired
 * Mangkhut, nearly guaranteed to be retired
 * Josie, although the monsoon was the main threat, it could have a slim chance to stay despite causing over 1 billion Pesos
 * Ompong, This storm is likely going to cause over a billion damage, so very likely 90+% chance this name will be retired.