Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.  ~ Roy25     Happy Thanksgiving Day!!!  |  🦃     23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. -  PORY GONAL  13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019
Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

AoI: Coast of Brazil
Here we go: "WARNING NR 196/2019 SPECIAL WARNING ISSUED AT 2000 UTC - THU - 21/MAR/2019 POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 15S038W STARTING AT 231200 UTC MOVING TO SOUTH. CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 7/9 WITH GUSTS AFFECTING AREA ECHO AND AREA DELTA NORTH OF 22S. VALID UNTIL 251200 UTC." -- Isaac829 E-Mail  17:15, March 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Both of the global models seem to be forming a weak storm there in a short while, though it will probably move southeast and out to sea. Still, it would be cool to see a south Atlantic storm again, we had a discussion about Arani in 2011 many years ago, though there have been a few weak storms that have developed since then, most recently Guara in December 2017. Ryan1000 21:08, March 23, 2019 (UTC)

90Q.INVEST
Now an invest and a tropical depression.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:49, March 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Iba
Now officially a rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic. Did you catch my words, “a rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic”? The last fully tropical storm in the SAtl was in 2010. I predict it to peak at a weak-moderate tropical storm before it weakens. What a wonderful sight!  Sandy 156   :)  17:42, March 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well well, what an interesting storm! A fishspinner in an unusual location is definitely a welcome sight after the absolute disaster that was Idai. Send Help Please  (talk) 17:46, March 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still a tropical storm, currently at 45 knots. Wow. This is very rare, considering that this storm is expected not to affect any land areas. (Coincidentally, the name "Iba" means "other" in another language (Filipino), and all I can say is that this system is like no other.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:06, March 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Iba also means only in Slovak, which is also coincidental when you come to think of it because it's the only storm named Iba.  Sandy 156   :)  00:15, March 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * So, do I win the betting pool, or are we only counting North Atlantic storms? ;) Beatissima (talk) 00:17, March 26, 2019 (UTC)

Good question...to the best of my knowledge, the context of the first storm formation section in the betting pools refers to North Atlantic storms forming under the NHC's AOR, not rare South Atlantic storms like this one. We didn't count Arani as the first named storm of the Atlantic in the 2011 betting pools, or Bapo and Cari in the 2015 season, so we shouldn't count this one as the first storm either. The SAtl isn't active enough on a regular basis to warrant being separate, but maybe next year we can add a section including the possibility of storms forming here. Ryan1000 11:49, March 26, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Iba
Iba has dissipated earlier today because of strong shear. It was a good sight while it lasted.  Sandy 156   :)  23:50, March 28, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Bahamas
0/20 - North Atlantic starting early again?! ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:19, May 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not bad...I predicted in the betting pools that we would get Andrea by around the end of May this year, but it looks like we might get her by the start of the month instead, if this AOI becomes Andrea. Forecast to move over Florida and curve northest out to sea, but it could become Andrea while moving offshore. If this becomes Andrea, 2019 would be the 5th consecutive Atlantic hurricane season to start early, an all-time record. Come on, do this! Ryan1000 15:20, May 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Just noticed this AOI a few hours ago. Seems the Atlantic has started to wake up again after a couple of dormant months. Whether this forms into Andrea or not, this is a good sign that the sleeping giant is about to awake (but also a bad sign for the population of the basin).  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:25, May 01, 2019 (UTC)


 * I’m glad the Atlantic is waking up early. Too far out for me to predict if it’s going to be Andrea or it isn’t, but I hope the Atlantic has a kickstart yet again.  Sandy 156   :)  23:38, May 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I predicted we'd get our first of the season by May 1. So when May 1 arrived, I crossed myself out in the betting pool as a loser.  Turns out I might have missed it by just a day or two!  Darn!  Beatissima (talk) 01:31, May 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10. It’s currently over Florida right now. I predict that it won’t develop but we’ll see once it emerges from Florida.  Sandy 156   :)  14:31, May 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now over northeastern Florida; chances are still 10/10.  Sandy 156   :)  14:26, May 3, 2019 (UTC)

Just got downgraded to 0/0, last outlook. Nickcoro (talk) 13:50, May 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Guess the North Atlantic was just doing a teaser trailer for its upcoming hurricane season.  Premieres this June! Beatissima (talk) 17:56, May 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * ===AOI: South of Bermuda===
 * ===AOI: South of Bermuda===
 * ===AOI: South of Bermuda===

Don't get your hopes down just yet! New AOI south of Bermuda at 0/30.Nickcoro (talk) 18:58, May 17, 2019 (UTC)