Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC)

Future start
Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC
 * We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC)

And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC)

I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC)

Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC)

Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC)

1st CSU Forecast
Here it is! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over the Yucatan
This is an incredible system. It has model support! It will likely hit Florida in 5-7 days and it may have a brief chance to develop into a subtropical storm in the BoC in a few days. Yqt1001 02:49, February 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it forms.-- Cy10 -- 03:12, February 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah I have been tracking this AOI since the start of this week hopefully we will get Alberto from this it would be incredible.Allanjeffs 05:49, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Well it has about 40-50 kt shear over it right now :S &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:30, February 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Consolidated well last night. Has a nice area of deep convection...if it wasn't for the shear, it probably would develop. Yqt1001 16:28, February 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not that surprised it's not developing; shear at this time of year is just too harsh for development. The window of opportunity for this to become Alberto, if any, is small. Ryan1000 18:05, February 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Anyways it has a small possibility any possibility even if it is small could make the AOI to develop .Allanjeffs 19:18, February 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Anyone have thoughts on the 1952 Groundhog Day tropical storm? This is a truly amazing event! Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  19:39, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

NHC say this will dissipate on Wednesday. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:53, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

The system has 850 Vort and shear has dropped considerably since yesterday we still could have Alberto of this AOI.Allanjeffs 15:02, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
And its now an invest! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:34, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

We have a shot of having Alberto people Hurricane season may start early.Allanjeffs 16:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Beat me to it...ah well. It has a chance to be the first storm of the season, and first February storm in 60 years. This is incredible already. Ryan1000 17:03, February 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * And even into the post season, my streak of posting about AOIs that become invests continues! I'm amazed that it achieved invest status though, but go Alberto! I want to see this! :D Yqt1001 17:21, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Nice looking, though the models still don't do much with it. They take it to minimal TS strength into Florida and then kill it. But if it becomes Alberto, we'll already make history in 2012. Ryan1000 21:01, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * OMG!!! I CAN'T BELIEVE WE COULD BE GETTING A FEBRUARY STORM!!! Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:39, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

STWO out – 30%. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:55, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

you beat me anyway we have 30% of having Alberto and chances are increasing.Allanjeffs 23:58, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Well most of the cloud has dissipated from the system, however, we should start seeing more bubbling up tomorrow. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well this is interesting. Didn't expect to be talking about an invest in early February! As warm as it's been though, it almost doesn't surprise me. In fact I was joking about it the other day, saying the season may start in April if this warm weather keeps up lol. It's got a nice circulation but non of the models develop it and shower activity has diminished. I'm sorry I completely forgot about the Hall of Fame! I got tied up with finals, then frantic Christmas shopping, then I went on vacation. I just forgot all about it. If you guys are game, we can go ahead and start right now. I'll go ahead and post the Pool of Twenty on the Hall of Fame page. Sorry again, guys. I have a bad habit of abandoning you come winter time! -- SkyFury 05:21, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Well it looks like we won't be getting a cyclone now. Down to 0%. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:25, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Oh, well. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  13:11, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * You mean NEAR 0% Kiewii. But yeah, it's not happening. Probably the closest we've been to a February cyclone in a long time! 216.211.56.100 13:28, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gah, it was so close, but now i'm pretty sure it missed it's chance to become Alberto. If that shear was a little bit lighter this would have been named easily. And Eric, you don't need to worry about "abandoning us" anymore. Check my user page. Im an official now. =) Anyways, yeah, i'd like to start the hall of fame thing whenever you wish to begin it, but if you have other things to do, don't worry. I'll be around for most of the year. Ryan1000 15:03, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * 216, I do not care. Technically, near 0% IS 0%. Duh. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * I've posted the Pool of Twenty candidates on the Hall of Fame page. We're ready to go. You are free to decide which one's you think should be among the ten finalists and which ones you think don't make the cut. You are welcome to suggest other candidates, but keep in mind that there are 86 (!!) storms that are already in. I'll try and get the current members posted sometime in the near future so you guys know who the Hall of Famers are and can better judge potential candidates that I may have missed. -- SkyFury 06:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

2nd CSU Forecast
It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

A link is here. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC)

There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Near Bermuda
Models are liking the setup for a Sean&Ana like formation early next week. If the models keep it up over the next few days we will for sure be seeing something try to develop there. A bit to early to confirm any development. We can watch though! Yqt1001 20:02, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

It would cool to see Alberto forming In April but if I remember correctly most of El NIÑO years Atlantic storms form earlier than other years but, when we are near ASO months the Atlantic shut early so that is why er don`t get a lot storms in this type of years.Allanjeffs 20:43, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

Only two storms have ever formed in April in the history of the Atlantic, but there are some models picking up on possible development. Aside from that, the midwest, including parts of Michigan where I live, got a bitter wake-up call this morning with a very damaging freeze last night. Damage to the crop industry was over 2 billion dollars. Back to this, it looks like it will remain a fish even if it does develop, but it's worth watching. Ryan1000 23:13, April 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Models have this developing in about 54 hours, with the low itself developing 24 hours from now. Very quick development the models want. Yqt1001 16:08, April 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wow now all the models are developing this system into Alberto I give it 80% of happening never I have seen the models so happy with an off-season system.Allanjeffs 19:09, April 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is a good chance it may become SUBTROPICAL (not exactly tropical) storm Alberto in the next 36 hours, but keep in mind it has a frontal nature and it's over rather cold, bitter waters. Don't be certain this will develop yet. It has a good chance, but as of now, i'm thinking it's more 50/50 than anything else. It could get right on it now and become Albero asap, or it could stay frontal and not develop at all. We'll see what happens. NHC is always picky when it comes to upgrading storms, and if anything, it won't be invested and jump straight to subtropical Alberto if it does want to develop. Ryan1000 20:34, April 15, 2012 (UTC)

The surface low that may become Alberto has formed. Yqt1001 00:37, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

I think this thing will stay as a frontal system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:06, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

Dr master talk to two hurricane specialist and look what they answer:Talked to two of them today here in Ponte Verda Beach. They already have a rotation schedule worked out in case Alberto develops; some of them would have to go home early from the conference.Jeff Masters. so even the NHC is keeping an eye on this system so I think is going to develop. like I say I have never seen all the models so happy with an off-season system.Allanjeffs 03:10, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

I would by no means be surprised if this becomes Alberto, but even if it does, I won't expect more than tropical storm strength. I'm not expecting a hurricane or anything like that to come from this system, but it's worth watching until it dies. The great plains, in the meantime, have to worry about a very active tornado season, hopefully not as bad as last year, but over 200 twisters have been recorded thus far this year. Ryan1000 04:08, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

If it does become subtropical or tropical, it will be named immediately. OPC are saying it has gales, and developing storm force winds (50 kt+). However, they keep the fronts on this storm. The north and northwest quadrants of the storm have 25-35 kt winds at the moment. This low should not be mentioned in the NHC TWD since it isn't in their area of responsibility. This low is currently at 33N 48W. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:02, April 16, 2012 (UTC)


 * It has 2 fronts attached to it still, so it isn't there yet. However should be invested sometime today. Will be interesting to see if this can pull off the feat of developing. As it is right now it's fairly far north in cold but not record cold temperatures. EDIT: Cyclonephase diagrams show it becoming shallow warm core sometime tomorrow. Yqt1001 12:38, April 16, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hmmm, I don't know. Windstorm Madeleine will continue to strengthen rapidly and move southeastwards, so the fronts may still hang on. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:52, April 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * If it wants to develop, it will likely just go straight to Alberto. It might be invested, but if it is, I don't expect it to spend much time as an invest before it becomes Alberto, and it will also be only the third April storm to exist, and possibly only the second tropical storm in the month. As of now, though, this thing is looking good. I'd be surprised if it's not invested or a depression at least, but it's worth watching. Ryan1000 22:20, April 16, 2012 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested. Still extratropical, has to hurry up, maybe a day until it runs out of time. Yqt1001 19:01, April 17, 2012 (UTC)

I think this thing has missed it's chance to become Alberto, but, if it does become Alberto, it will likely be only brief. Ryan1000 21:04, April 17, 2012 (UTC)

Seems like it did miss it's chance...91L has started weakening :( Cy10  E-Mail  00:01, April 19, 2012 (UTC)

It's gone. D: Cy10  E-Mail  00:31, April 21, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not surprised it didn't become Alberto; given the conditions 91L was in, it had only a small window of oportunity to develop, and it didn't happen. It didn't have much of a chance. Alberto will have to wait. Ryan1000 22:32, April 21, 2012 (UTC)

With what the GFS is showing we could hve Alberto by the next or next next week. :)

--Allanjeffs 20:59, May 9, 2012 (UTC)

Well, aside from the silence here on the forums, the hurricane reanalysis project has successfully completed the 1931 to 1935 Atlantic hurricane seasons. With them, they upgraded the 1931 Belize hurricane to a Cat. 4 upon its landfall in Belize, the 1932 Texas and San Ciprian Hurricanes were upped a bit in strength, the 1932 Cuba hurricane to a 175 mph Category 5, two storms in 1933 to Category 5's, the 1935 Labor day hurricane was found to have hit with 190 mph winds and the so called "Yankee hurricane" of November 1935 was found to have hit Florida as a 105 mph category 2 hurricane. Looks like there are now SIX seasons with two or more category 5 storms. We missed quite a bit of data back then, I guess... Ryan1000 21:40, May 9, 2012 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
What do we have here? I spy with my little eye...a very tiny low prssure system in the vicinity of the azores which may become a 40 mph tropical storm later today! I guess now it's a race to see who will become named first: this thing or 90E in the East Pacific. If this thing misses it's chance, then Aletta's coming first. Ryan1000 13:48, May 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * What... Cyclone10 E-Mail  14:30, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * OMG this is so excitingAllanjeffs 15:14, May 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Not exactly the time of season for these systems to develop so I don't have my hopes to high. Not at least before Tuesday unless it pulls a Grace sometime today. Yqt1001 15:46, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looks like it will. Holy smokes, wtf is going on. YE Tropical Cyclone


 * Looking very nice now, still cold core though. :/ Link Yqt1001 17:34, May 12, 2012 (UTC)

Here it is! A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES {C SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM {C ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME {C POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE {C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM {C CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE {C DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 2 STWOs at one time in mid-May (both 40% too). Not bad! Yqt1001 17:42, May 12, 2012 (UTC)

As I said above, this is a race to see who's going to be named first: Alberto or Aletta? We'll have to wait and see. The difference between this thing and 90E in the EPac is 90E has 2 days or so to develop (excluding today) until it succumbs to shear. This thing has to become Alberto later today or tomorrow or it'll be too late. It's a very tiny storm surrounded in a vastly larger extratropical cyclone. It has a very short clock to develop. The fact it jumped from not being on the two to a 40% invest is reason enough to say it's briefly exploding, but i'd say this thing has no more than 18 to 24 hours to become Alberto briefly before fading away. 90E has more than twice as much time to become Aletta. Ryan1000 18:41, May 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Just as quick as this little storm blew up it died. Yqt1001 21:10, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its not dead it is making a comeback.Allanjeffs 02:54, May 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * Probably not. It's down to 20%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:46, May 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * ==MAY==

93L.Invest

 * And now near 0%. Looks like 90E won the race after all. Alberto will have to come later. Ryan1000 00:59, May 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * Sorry couldn`t put Ryan comment in the other section, anyway we have 93L and of all the invest in the Atlantic this year this is the one that has the best shot of becoming Alberto and it has until Monday to strength.Allanjeffs 15:47, May 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Up to 50%Allanjeffs 16:04, May 19, 2012 (UTC)