Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season/October

92C.INVEST
CP, 92, 2011100100,, BEST, 0, 108N, 1541W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

A compact area of low pressure located about 575 miles south- southeast of the Big Island is moving west at 10 to 15 mph. Thunderstorm coverage and organization has been limited, and upper level winds are only marginally conducive for further development. There is a low chance, near 10 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.Allanjeffs 01:25, October 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * But it's in a spot that's only marginally conductive for development.10Q.INVEST 01:58, October 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 10%10'Q.'INVEST 14:32, October 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone.10'Q.'INVEST 15:40, October 2, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Near Mexico
10%.10'Q.'INVEST 15:40, October 2, 2011 (UTC)

20%.10'Q.'INVEST 12:08, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 10%Allanjeffs 17:46, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

Back up to 20%. EPac has gotten a little boring rescently, but October has the potential to produce some of the mightiest EPac storms possible. 2 of our 4 retirees in this basin have formed in this month, and a ton of very strong storms can easily form at this time too. This is the WPac's peak month, so I would expect a ton of activity over there. Ryan1000 20:53, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

I agree with you in the eastern pacific part because the MJO is coming through it and also in the Atlantic so both basins will have a lot of tropical mischief but the western pacific is coming dryer conditions as the MJO leave that basinAllanjeffs 21:15, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested now and up to 30%. I am convinced we will have a hurricane out of this one, if only briefly, but it does appear like it will intensify due to some pretty favorable conditions for the next several days, and we have a new AOI at 20% for the next couple of days. Allan, although the MJO may be leaving the WPac, their October is like the Atlantic's September, or EPac's August; it's their peak month. Considering the extent of activity WPac has dealt out in the past, I think we will have an active October coming our way there, and here. Ryan1000 08:21, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * 50%.10'Q.'INVEST 11:52, October 5, 2011 (UTC
 * Looks like it has a decent chance at MH strength..I kinda hope it gets to C5 strength, one thing Hilary didn't have that this wave does...is the MJO. Yqt1001 12:16, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70%! Yqt1001 19:11, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Only forecast to be a 1, but I wouldn't be surprised if it and 98E explode in the next few days. Ryan1000 19:40, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it might reach about Category 2 status and become Irwin. Kiewii 20:04, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * 80%. Yqt1001 00:00, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 100 percent now but still not a TD. I am interested in how the NHC will explain the cyclogenesis of this an 98E after the season. --88.102.101.245 07:54, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11-E
Yipee! Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:36, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * TD 11 is here. --88.102.101.245 10:44, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

It is forecast to become a hurricane and make landfall in Mexico :/ Hurricane Kiewii 12:39, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

this one no 10E yesAllanjeffs 12:48, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

These 2 storms are confusing! Hurricane Kiewii 17:20, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irwin
EP, 11, 2011100612,, BEST, 0, 123N, 1166W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 40, 1009, 180, 35, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, M, now irwinAllanjeffs 12:57, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Official now. Not expecting much out of this.YE Tropical Cyclone 14:58, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

From the latest NHC discussion on Irwin: WELL...SO MUCH FOR THE SLOW STRENGTHENING THAT WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LOL'd at that. 50 kts, 997 mbar per the latest NHC advisory, with the forecast upped to 80 kts! If that holds (or better yet, Irwin pulls a Eugene), it looks like we'll have our first Hurricane Irwin this year (all five previous incarnations failed to reach hurricane strength). --HurricaneMaker99 20:41, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

I think Irwin will be the first of these two to become a hurricane; i'm surprised as to how it isn't one now. I can already see an eye forming. Ryan1000 22:19, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 65mph at the advisory just now...sounds like Irwin is likely to be upgraded to a hurricane at the next advisory..what they said in the advisory for Irwin sounds like they are describing a hurricane. NHC says a 100mph peak from Irwin also. Yqt1001 03:13, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Irwin

 *  Irwin is a cane with advisory 5. Jova still a tropical storm. --88.102.101.245 09:21, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can just about see an eye on this hurricane! (Not that rare) Hurricane Kiewii 09:32, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 10-8-4! Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:25, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * There goes the forecast from NOAA.10'Q.'INVEST 12:19, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * At 90 mph. Our fifth Category 2 of the season is coming. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:50, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't know, Jova is much bigger than Irwin is, and it appears it could be weakened or even absorbed by her because she's more than twice Irwin's size. However, NHC still takes it recurving back to Mexico as a hurricane Next week, so it bears watching. Ryan1000 13:25, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irwin is down to 75 mph and could very well weaken to a tropical storm Allanjeffs 14:34, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irwin looks nothing close to a hurricane now, looks like a post - tropical cyclone.10'Q.'INVEST 19:30, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's getting sheared by Jova really hard, and the last advisory is not far away.10'Q.'INVEST 19:33, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irwin (2nd time)
Now a tropical storm and he may get absorb by Jova EP, 11, 2011100818,, BEST, 0, 143N, 1210W, 60, 993, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 30, 1009, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, IRWIN, D,Allanjeffs 20:19, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's very likely to be absorbed.10'Q.'INVEST 20:27, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC shows it getting back to hurricane strength as Jova pulls away. Yqt1001 21:12, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irwin continues to weaken EP, 11, 2011100900,, BEST, 0, 146N, 1206W, 50, 997, TS Allanjeffs 01:12, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * 45mph now. Irwin is falling apart..NHC still shows strengthening later though. Irwin is more of a failure than Philippe. Yqt1001 14:12, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Philippe wasn't a failure at all IMO. He should have degenerated into an open wave just a few days into his life, but held on and on and finally became a hurricane after 12 days! Now, Irwin isn't as entertaining as Philippe was, but that could easily change. And hey, at least it's the first incarnation of Irwin to reach hurricane strength (like Bud and Ernesto in 2006). --HurricaneMaker99 14:20, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah I worded that wrong. It was supposed to be a way of bugging Ryan about how he called Philippe a failure and then Philippe epic winned in that shear. Anyways, Irwin is coming back now that Jova heads eastward. Yqt1001 14:33, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

50mph winds now. Yqt1001 20:58, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

I was expecting Philippe to die out much earlier, but he defied what should have happened to him just like Ophelia. However, despite how long he lasted, he fortunately didn't affect land. Irwin is like the EPac's form of Philippe this year(except he did become a hurricane shortly after he formed), but instead of dying from the shear, Irwin's hanging on through it, and he could all the way to Mexico. Jova will likely be the most severe threat of all of the three storms, but all of Irwin, Jova, and possibly future Kenneth, will cause many problems for Central America and/or Mexico. Ryan1000 01:44, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

Irwin peaked at 60mph last night, but now he is weakening and back down to 40mph. Yqt1001 14:54, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

He is nothing like philipe Ryan now Irwin is a td EP, 11, 2011101018,, BEST, 0, 150N, 1173W, 30, 1004, TD Allanjeffs 19:37, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

It's not dead though, and it still has convection and a spin to it. I'm expecting it to recover it's former self when it approaches Mexico, but perhaps not everything it formerly was. He's not dead yet, and I'm still not expecting him to die so soon. Jova's got a C4 possibility though, and 99E is down to 50%. Ryan1000 20:27, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Irwin
It might take coward's way out.10'Q.'INVEST 02:40, October 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC forecast has Irwin being at the exact same intensity it is now until landfall on Mexico... Yqt1001 03:09, October 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irwin (3rd time)
Back to a tropical storm! Hurricane Kiewii 14:43, October 11, 2011 (UTC)

Ha! I knew he would hang on. However, he won't change much at all in intensity until Jova moves inland. By then it could reintensify possibly to a hurricane, if only a minimal one. Ryan1000 19:44, October 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Irwin (3rd time)
Back to TD.10'Q.'INVEST 02:59, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

Bye Irwin you are nearing death i knew you will never recuperate again Allanjeffs 03:20, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

He hung on a lot longer than he should have. And he could bounce back up to TS intensity. He's just not dying out. He will probrably not become a hurricane again, but he's still hanging on there. Ryan1000 10:50, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irwin (4th time)
Irwin is just rocking back and forth. Hurricane Kiewii 17:55, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

He just won't give up. He will head eastward a bit more and then head southward and turn back west, never to return again. However, the longer he stays alive, the higher the ACE will be. Ryan1000 19:54, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

He's not down yet.10'Q.'INVEST 20:26, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

Irwin apparently seems to be the longest-lived storm of the season and it's also the longest-lived October hurricane since 1990's Hurricane Trudy, and he isn't expected to die until next Wensday, October 19. That would give him a two week lifespan, a pretty long-lived storm for October, and for such a weak hurricane too. ATL still hasn't produced anything thus far this month, excluding Philippe and Ophelia, which lasted into October from late September. Ryan1000 21:35, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

one aspect of this month is that October have been more active than september Allanjeffs 23:11, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * That's not extremely unusual Allan. In September, ATL tends to steal most of the tropical waves from Africa, so EPac doesn't get a ton of storms. In October, the monsoon trough south of Mexico really strengthens up and troughs that dive down into the western U.S. and Mexico recurve hurricanes back to Mexico. October 2009 was a lot more active than September of that year, especially seeing the second-strongest Pacific hurricane ever recorded in that year and the strongest October hurricane on record. We also saw a MH in CPac(Neki) which passed over the largely unpopulated Midway Islands and French frigate shoals, an unusual location for a storm to go in CPac. October 2002 had Kenna, October 1976 had Liza and Madeline, October 1959 had the great Mexico hurricane, October 1983 had Tico and the remnants of Octave, October 1997 had Pauline, ect. October is the most daangerous month for EPac IMO. Early-season killers like Agatha of last year are rare, but they are also quite bad when they do happen. Ryan1000 00:26, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Finally Irwin is dying is really boring IMO he may very well be the last Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone in tems of name storms have you see that almost all t stoms have benn cat 4 ex:Trudy Tico Tina Allanjeffs 02:59, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Irwin (4th time)
Back to TD (finally)10'Q.'INVEST 03:08, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Tara of 1961 and 1982 as well as Terry of 1985 weren't C4's, but "T" names are rare in EPac, and usually happen in very strong El Nino years, which was all over the early 1980's. Ryan1000 03:15, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Irwin
He's gone. Yqt1001 02:54, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Finally Allanjeffs 03:20, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Irwin was essentially the EPac's form of Philippe. He lived through rough shear and dry air for nearly two weeks. That's nothing worthless for EPac, and the longest-lived storm of the season. The only main difference was Philippe became a hurricane near the end of his live, wheras Irwin did it near the start of his. I can now call this a completely satisfying EPac season(well, Jova, Beatriz, and 12E did do some big impacts), but in terms of meteorological aspects, this was a once in a lifetime season. Ryan1000 19:58, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

supposedly the Western pacific should be very active this month because of the absent of the MJO they may have a quiet OctoberAllanjeffs 22:50, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

It's rather rare, but apparantly they will have a silent October at the rate WPac is going. The most active October on record in WPac was in 1984, when 9 storms formed in the month, and two more lasted into the month. Only one storm formed in October 1976. 2011 may tie that record low. Ryan1000 08:02, October 18, 2011 (UTC)

AOI:Near Mexico
Another one at 20%. Ryan1000 08:21, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
50% already, just a question..are 98E and 97E close enough to have a Fujiwara interaction? They seem really close... Yqt1001 19:11, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

I don't think they will, but I am quite surprised as to how unenthusiastic the models are with this one. It's moving slower than 97E, and it has better conditions since 97E will be in the clear as well. Bud and Carlotta of 2006 were so close to each other that I thought they would undergo a Fujawara at any given moment, but all that did happen was Bud encountered unfavorable conditions, tearing him apart, and what was left of Bud killed Carlotta as she was heading seaward. This thing will not become sheared by 97E because the difference in intensity(percentage for development) isn't far enough off for that. 50% vs 70%. Bud was 125 mph vs Carlotta at only 85 mph, and Bud became a hurricane when Carlotta was becoming a depression/minimal TS. If Bud didn't shear Carlotta into oblivion, then there is no way this storm will become torn apart by 97E. Ivan and Joan in WPac of October 1997 are also somewhat of a mystery for no fujawara between them, as were Ron and Susan in SPac in January 1998. We'll just have to wait and see, but I guess it's fair to say Irwin and Jova are just about here. Ryan1000 19:40, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * 80%! The NHC actually has this wave developing before 9 8 7E now. Yqt1001 00:01, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * you mean 97l yeah sorry Yqt1001 it was me is that i was not log in it looks that 98l winAllanjeffs 03:59, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * they both do it at the same time... I'm still confused as to why the NHC is unenthusiastic... SHIPS only forecasts a 50 knot peak with this one, but although only 2 of the models forecast a MH out of 98E(HWRF and ICON), with 97E, none of the models take it past 85 or so knots and NHC thinks it will become a huah this will be irwin i think190.11.238.4 00:53, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * The race to Irwin begins...loser gets the name Jova. Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:46, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wonder what happens rricane, while this one not. A little confusing... Ryan1000 02:16, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes I did 190.11.238.4, thanks. And yes it is rather confusing Ryan, but I guess it could be because they only use models as a reference and use their experience to make intensity forecasts instead. Though, the last time they used their experience to make intensity forecasts Philippe didn't degenerate and the models were right for keeping him at ~60mph through that killer shear. We'll see what happens. Yqt1001 03:08, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10-E
98E wins! Expected to peak at 65mph. Yqt1001 03:38, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

sorry Yqt1001 it was me is that i was not log in at that time it looks that 98l win Allanjeffs 04:00, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

Well, it won the race to become a depression but the other system got named firstly :D --88.102.101.245 17:40, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jova
10-E is now named! Hurricane Kiewii 20:38, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Expected to be a category 2 hurricane at landfall in Mexico. Yqt1001 20:49, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow! The first landfalling hurricane of the season... am I right? Hurricane Kiewii 20:52, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nope. Beatriz made landfall in Mexico before it exploded into a remnant low.10'Q.'INVEST 22:09, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Beatriz only brushed Mexico, she never made landfall. Tropical Depression 8 was the only TC that made landfall there this year. Last hurricane to make landfall on Mexico was Jimena in 2009 as a category 2 hurricane. Yqt1001 22:11, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Uh, from the EPac, yes, but Yqt, Alex and Karl battered them pretty good from the ATL side in 2010. If the conditions come together at the right time, we could have these two storms exploding into major hurricanes, which would make 6 for 6 in EPac. The ACE this year has been incredible for a season with only so many storms. We could easily pass 100 by the time these two storms are done. Jova is currently forecast to become a 2 by the time it approaches Mexico, and Irwin a 1. However, given the lack of signifigant wind shear, the potential for these two storms to explode remains high, if not only one of the two. Irwin and Jova are also mixed up in numbers sine Irwin formed out of TD 11 and Jova out of 10, so the naming of this year is actually Adrian, Beatriz, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Jova, Irwin, not Irwin, Jova. Ryan1000 22:17, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, I meant EPac. Also; Fujiwara! [1] NHC says Irwin is dominant so he will strengthen faster, while Jova will remain weaker until they separate. But it seems likely that both will become significant storms. Yqt1001 22:20, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, you mean 6 for 9? Remember that Beatriz, Calvin, and Greg didn't get past Cat 1 strength... --HurricaneMaker99 22:22, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I know, I was just saying 6 major hurricanes, not exactly 6 out of 9, and if both Irwin and Jova take advantage of the low shear and high SST's they're in right now, they could easily explode to C4's which, if they do, will make this year second(third if you include ties) to 1992/1993 for the most C4's in a season, with 6. I knew Irwin would be dominant, but by the time Jova heads eastward towards Mexico, she will be out of Irwin's path and could explode before landfall, which would spell bad news for them. Irwin will sit out to sea for a few days before turning back to hit Mexico just behind Jova. Ryan1000 00:40, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jova and Irwin are most likely to become hurricanes. There origins were probably form MJO which is expected to move into the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific will be done with its season. HurricaneOwen99 01:30, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irwin is a cat 1 now, Owen. 
 * Irwin is a cat 1 now, Owen. 

Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:28, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

I see an eye...http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/vis-l.jpg Hurricane Kiewii 14:24, October 7, 2011 (UTC)

The NHC predicts that it will be a Category 3 (or 4) at landfall! But someone told me that NHC's intensity forecasts are off by 30 mph.. Hurricane Kiewii 15:17, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * So far out, the intensity could be anywhere from dissipated to category 5. NHC's intensity forecasts are usually very wrong, and can often be wrong by up to 70mph. Yqt1001 19:09, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * At 65 mph. NOAA has REALLY messed up this year's predictions in terms of hurricanes and major hurricanes. They predicted 5-8 hurricanes, but Jova looks like our ninth. Furthermore, they predicted 1-3 majors, but we have four already and Irwin could be our fifth one. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:53, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jova is forecast to become one first, but given the favorable conditions both hurricanes are in, I wouldn't be surprised if we tack two more C4's onto that number, which would be 6 for 6 as I mentioned earlier(6 C4's for 6 majors). Irwin looks like he's getting his act together, and 99E could become future Kenneth. Ryan1000 21:54, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * At 70 mph. Our ninth hurricane is in the making. Hurricane Andrew (444) 16:13, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Jova

 * As Irwin is downgrade to a tropical storm Jova is upgrade to the ninth hurricane of the seasonAllanjeffs 20:38, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here we go.10'Q.'INVEST 21:00, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

85mph. They are flying a plane into Jova later today, so we'll find out it's true intensity soon. Yqt1001 14:01, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90mph Jova found by recon. Hurricane and TS watches are in place. Yqt1001 20:55, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jova's a pretty small and tightly wound hurricane, so MH strength definitely isn't out of the question before landfall. Mexico needs to keep their eyes on this one. Ryan1000 01:44, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Category 2 hurricane, 100mph winds now, 975mb pressure. NHC still shows a MH landfall. Yqt1001 03:00, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Jova
10-9-5! Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:01, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Expected to be a 4 at landfall. Guys, we have a record storm here. Yqt1001 13:12, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not quite, it's forecast to peak as a 4, and weaken to 125 mph when it does make landfall. Still, that's nothing to be taken lightly and this could be the most severe hurricane to hit Mexico's Pacific coast since Kenna of 2002. Ryan1000 20:30, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * It was expected to be a 4 at landfall a while ago, now it's not because it's starting to weaken due to an ERC. Nonetheless Jova is very likely to be one of the strongest storms to ever make landfall in the EPac. Yqt1001 02:54, October 11, 2011 (UTC)

Sounds like the mountains have disrupted the core of Jova. She only has half an eyewall now, and winds are down to 115mph. Yqt1001 12:19, October 11, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Jova (2nd time)
Mexico has gotten rather lucky, 100mph winds now. Jova isn't going to be one of the 10 strongest hurricanes to make landfall in the EPac basin anymore. I really thought she was going to be. Yqt1001 19:04, October 11, 2011 (UTC)

The threat for flooding rains is not over yet. I don't care if Mexico has a well-prepared evacuation system; those mountains will just squeeze out all of the rain from this thing, and inland flooding is highly unpredictable with tropical cyclones. Ryan1000 19:44, October 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jova has made landfall with winds estimated at 100mph. Post season will reveal the actual winds and pressure. Yqt1001 12:18, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jova (2nd time)
Down to a tropical storm, should dissipate in the next 18-24 hours. Hurricane Kiewii 15:40, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

This thing wasn't the best scenario for the folks down there, but although it wasn't as bad as it could've been, I fear the damage was still quite extensive. Ryan1000 19:52, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Jova (2nd time)
Down to a tropical depression.. Hurricane Kiewii 20:47, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

Jova's screwed. However, the threat will not be over when she dies because her slow movement over western Mexico will cause widespread flooding and mudslides there. And 12E is about to die as well. Ryan1000 21:23, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Jova
It's gone.10'Q.'INVEST 02:57, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">At least 4 people are dead, with damages yet to be known. Ryan1000 10:53, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Here we go again. This one is a few hundred miles southwest of San Slavador. 20% right now. With the intensity/locations of Irwin, Jova and 99E right now I could see Central America looking like the coast of Africa in the Atlantic. (strong TS far off the coast, weak TS closer and invest just off of the coast) Yqt1001 23:49, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">What, is the rate of activity actually accelerating at this time of year? We have 2(possibly major) hurricanes in the making and now future Kenneth? EPac's really going donkers. And Darren thought I didn't make good ACE/storm predictions in my last blog post >:). Just one storm after another. NOAA really screwed up the predictions for activity this year in EPac, mostly in intensity. I can still see Philippe out there, but other than him, ATL's not producing anything useful for the next 48 hours. Ryan1000 00:46, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it's because of the MJO. Right now it is in the EPac and Irwin, Jova and 99E seem to be of MJO origin. Once the MJO gets fully over to the Atlantic I'm sure we will see something like this, just in the Caribbean.... Yqt1001 00:52, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Agree with you Yqt1001
 * once the MJO moove to the caribean the eastern pacific will shut down Allanjeffs 01:20, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Could this thing pull a Hermine? --88.102.101.245 16:39, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at medium chance...30%. Hurricane Kiewii 18:22, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Conditions won't really be favourable for GoM development in the BoC area for the next week. So it seems like the only way it could redevelop in the Atlantic would be if it went east into the Caribbean. Yqt1001 19:13, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * This wave is only forecast to become a Tropical storm, but when it Develops, Irwin and Jova will be moving out, so it could still have a chance at becoming a brief hurricane as MJO still holds on here. I expect it to make it's last stand in the Atlantic in the last week or two of October. Even so, the ACE won't get over 130 there as far as i'm concerned, but here it could easily pass 110 with these three. Ryan1000 23:23, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * now 50% and here comes KenethAllanjeffs 23:37, October 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Lost a lot of storm activity in the LLCC.10'Q.'INVEST 04:55, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70% chance.. this looks like it could become Kenneth. Hurricane Kiewii 11:57, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are very unenthusiastic with this one in terms of intensity. SHIPS only forecasts a minor TS out of this, if not only a depresion, and the models are also clueless as to where it will go. The're all over the place. This one might not be very signifigant, but it stil follows behind the train with Irwin and Jova. Ryan1000 13:09, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think this could become a depression tomorrow. 10'Q.'INVEST 16:47, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * 80%. Yqt1001 17:55, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are not much impressed by maybe-Kenneth, perhaps because of the system being fastly closer to the coast. However we might see three named active storms on Monday and Tuesday. Though I would like to see triplet of hurricanes the proximity to the Mexican coast is of concern, and since all of these three systems are hitting the coast probably within two or three days this could emerge into a major disaster. --88.102.101.245
 * But this storm will still take 3-4 days to make landfall, unless it heads eastward into Central America. It has a chance to become Hurricane Kenneth, and I won't rule anything out from it. Jova is about to take off though, and as she pulls away, this storm will have even more time to strengthen. We already have 9 hurricanes and possibly a 10th hurricane, and 6th major hurricane, in the making. This goes to show you should never bustcast, or overcast, neutral seasons, because they are highly unpredictable(1990 is another). Ryan1000 22:09, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

90% now. TD12 is coming. Yqt1001 23:49, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

and it could be very well have it tonight I like to see hurricanes in the eastern pacific but i really want to see a major like Katia in the Atlantic or Ophelia but i know that now all the tropical activity will be near countries so is gonna be bad and for information Philippe is the only male storm of the Atlantic to be at hurricane strengthAllanjeffs 23:59, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan most of the models bring it to central America but it still could be a hurricane when it make landfallAllanjeffs 04:56, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 70% central america should be aware of this systemAllanjeffs 05:50, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Guess we have to wait.10'Q.'INVEST 17:22, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

Still at 70%.10'Q.'INVEST 18:02, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

Less chance of formation.. down to 60%. Hurricane Kiewii 23:49, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Jova's outflow is starting to get the better of this thing, but when she moves away, this thing has it's chance, if it ever will, of becoming a named storm. Ryan1000 01:44, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * 50% now. I'm wondering if this will be the first AOI that reached 90% to be bust. (that I have seen at least). Yqt1001 05:34, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * This thing did a little loop and is now heading towards Mexico/Guatemala. Hurricane Kiewii 17:32, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's only at 20%. Maybe we won't see Kenneth afer all. Ryan1000 19:44, October 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is the only 90% bust I have ever seen. Assuming it will make landfall in Mexico before it can develop. Yqt1001 00:27, October 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's all Jova's fault. I think if she became a hurricane just six or twelve hours later this system would've developped into Kenneth. But then, if she developped later she might have become an hurricane never because Irwin could have kept the lead. --88.102.101.245 06:12, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
Now td 12 expect to become kenneth for a couple of hours Allanjeffs 09:03, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

Didn't expect it to become a depression so close to land. Should become Tropical Storm Kenneth before landfall. Hurricane Kiewii 09:20, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I wouldn't be entirely surprised if we don't get Kenneth, but it will cause life threatening floods for the folks down in Mexico/Guatemala, so Kenneth or not, this storm bears watching. Ryan1000 10:55, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I didn't see this coming. This storm gives me all sorts of bad feelings. This could be like TD 11 or Agatha all over again.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well I still haven't seen a 90% bust, but the fact it developed at 20% rather than 90% was odd. This storm has hte same potential of being a very bad storm for Mesico, since it is monsoonal, the rainfall will be torrential. Though it's likely to be overshadowed by Jova. Yqt1001 12:16, October 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, there is still a possibility it might not even be Kenneth at all... Rescently it lost itself in organization, and it appears to have made landfall, or almost made landfall, in southern Mexico. It might have already missed it's chance at becoming Kenneth, but either way, flooding will be severe. Jova hit as a 100 mph storm, but overall impacts, though they were likely extensive, probrably weren't extremely severe. Ryan1000 19:50, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

It has made landfall... warnings discontinued and 0% chance of more development.. Hurricane Kiewii 20:51, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">We'll probrably stop here for named storms, or, at least until Irwin dies out. This year put on quite a show. An ACE/storm of(when Irwin dissipates)10.6-11. That's almost an all-time record for EPac; even 1992 would be jealous of this year in terms of ACE/storm. 1990 and 1993 are the apparent 1st and 2nd place record holders in terms of ACE/storm. Overall, the ACE this year was near-normal for EPac, but considering we had 9 hurricanes out of only 10 named storms, the ACE/storm of this year was just incredible. Only Fernanda didn't become a hurricane this year. We had the highest number of hurricanes of any season in EPac since 2006, and the most in a non-El Nino year since 1990. On top of all that, we had a knot per storm average of 98 in this year's EPac season. That's an all-time record. 90% of this season's storms became hurricanes, also an all-time record. In terms of the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes, NOAA pretty much flipped ATL and EPac. All that said and done, what's not been impressive here? Ryan1000 21:23, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">20 deaths so far.10'Q.'INVEST 02:11, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Twelve-E
It's gone.10'Q.'INVEST 02:58, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I guess that's pretty much it for EPac, but as I mentioned above, this year was just incredible. Ryan1000 10:50, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Hawaii
Maybe not south... about 800 miles south.. but there is no other land area around. At 10%. Hurricane Kiewii 00:15, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look likely to develop.10'Q.'INVEST 00:21, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't see it exploding into a depression or storm. Hurricane Kiewii 00:45, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's gone. Ryan1000 10:57, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Central America
10%.10'Q.'INVEST 02:49, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

...and gone.10'Q.'INVEST 14:40, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

93C.INVEST
Not on the TWO yet, but it exists. Yqt1001 23:05, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

Which one? The extratropical cyclone in the NE or the thunderstorms near the equator?10'Q.'INVEST 23:17, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's at 9.8N, so I'm guessing the thunderstorms near the equator. Yqt1001 23:26, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * After taking few looks at the satilite, now I see it. It has a nice circulation and convection.10'Q.'INVEST 23:51, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * No good, 0%.10'Q.'INVEST 23:59, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's in unfavorable conditions in CPac and only at near 0%. I'm surprised this thing is even invested in the first place. Ryan1000 01:49, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 10% now.10'Q.'INVEST 12:08, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * There's a typo with the models in weather underground, they shoot it into WPac, but it looks like this storm will stay a wave or briefly be a depression overall. Ryan1000 22:03, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Deveoping Gale
At least GFS has something going here...10'Q.'INVEST 23:45, October 19, 2011 (UTC)

Nope.10'Q.'INVEST 23:12, October 21, 2011 (UTC)