Forum:2019 Pacific typhoon season/November-December

99W.INVEST
Looks like another invest has appeared on Tidbits. This is located near the Marshall Islands. ~  Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  04:24, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  15:58, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to code orange. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:18, November 1, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (99W)
JMA TD declared (30 knots/35 mph and 1004 mbar), still code orange on JTWC. This could be a potentially significant, but hopefully fishspinning, Halong. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:12, November 2, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Halong
It's been named and expected to become a major typhoon. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:08, November 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks well organized and poised to RI. -- Java Hurricane  11:37, November 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently 60 mph (50 knots) (JTWC) and 50 mph (45 knots)/992 mbar (JMA), should be a STS pretty soon. I also expect it to RI and it could get as high as C4-equivalent. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:22, November 3, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Halong
I think it's starting to RI. Up to STS strength according to JMA, 65 mph (55 knots)/985 mbar, and already a typhoon according to JTWC (75 mph/65 knots). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:35, November 3, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Halong
Upped to typhoon intensity - 80 mph (70 knots)/970 mbar (JMA) and 100 mph (85 knots) (JTWC). I expect a peak as a C4-equivalent, maybe even a slight chance of super typhoon intensity if it really RIs. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:10, November 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now C4 equivalent, 130 mph. JTWC expects a peak of 125 knots (145 mph). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:31, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like a bona fide T7.5 with a CMG ring. 100 kt from JMA. -- Java Hurricane  07:09, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a 130 kt Super Typhoon. -- Java Hurricane  09:13, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Whoa, this exceeded expectations. Now a Category 5 according to JTWC (140 knots/160 mph). JMA has it at C4-equivalent intensity (115 knots/130 mph) and a 905 mbar pressure. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:21, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC intensity up to 180 mph (155 knots). What an insane beast this is! BTW, this is now the most intense storm of the season. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:16, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

(Edit Conflict) Yeah, 130 mph 10-min winds and 905 mbars now according to JMA, and 180 mph 1 min winds and 897 mbars according to JTWC. Halong's a fairly strong typhoon, and the fact that it's not affecting land at this intensity is all the better to see. Ryan1000 23:19, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * We finally have our fishspinning beast. After Lorenzo, Hagibis and Dorian I lost hope but I guess the season is never really over until it's over. Such a nice sight to see. Also, Halong is now the strongest and most intense cyclone this season, surpassing Dorian in both winds and pressure. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:59, November 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this is very nice. This is my favorite storm in a long time and could be getting the "S" grade in my retirement section for being so awesome. I'm really surprised how intense it got. But are you sure that it really surpassed Dorian's wind speed of 185 mph (a.k.a. reached 190 mph/165 knots)? It most likely tied it earlier, but I can't find anything about it reaching 190 mph, unless you were looking at gusts by mistake. Anyhow, seems like Halong is peaking and should weaken from here on out. Now 150 knots (175 mph) according to JTWC. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:28, November 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 155 mph (135 knots) (JTWC) and 120 mph (105 knots)/925 mbar (JMA). It was truly amazing how powerful it got while staying out to sea. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:08, November 6, 2019 (UTC)

Continuing its gradual weakening trend. Down to C3 strength according to JTWC (120 mph/105 knots) and according to JMA, it's now only 105 mph (90 knots)/950 mbar. Expected to die out by the weekend. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:58, November 7, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now only at C2-equivalent intensity according to JTWC (105 mph/90 knots) and down to 85 mph (75 knots)/970 mbar according to JMA. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:11, November 7, 2019 (UTC)


 * Barely hanging on as a typhoon, down to C1-equivalent intensity. 90 mph (80 knots) (JTWC), 75 mph (65 knots)/980 mbar (JMA). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:15, November 8, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Halong (2nd time)
Down to TS intensity according to JMA (50 mph/45 knots and 994 mbar) while JTWC keeps it as a strong 70 mph (60 knot) TS. Expected to die out by tomorrow. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:17, November 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Barely hanging on, 40 mph (35 knots)/1000 mbar (JMA), but still 65 mph (55 knots) according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:30, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Halong
So long, Halong. Great to see a powerful cat 5 fishspinner in the WPac. Usually the EPac produces these kinds of storms, albeit more rarely. Ryan1000 08:30, November 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * This was actually stronger than any other EPac Storm except for Patricia (I think). Goodbye to one of the most amazing storms I've ever tracked, for being so powerful and a fishspinner. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:50, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

Well, the JMA's pressure estimate is usually more conservative and they round to the nearest 5 mbars, so this may have been much more intense than the 905 it is estimated to have had. Haiyan was estimated by the JTWC to have been at 858 mbars at one point, which would've made it the strongest TC ever if it was official, but it wasn't. Ryan1000 19:38, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
This has popped up over the Philippines. Might be a re-Matmo if it develops. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:12, November 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow on JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:15, November 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:23, November 3, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (90W)
Now a TD according to JMA, with an intensity of 35 mph (30 knots)/1006 mbar. Code red on JTWC with a TCFA issued. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:12, November 4, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (90W/Quiel)
Named Quiel by PAGASA as it moved towards the Philippines. Expected to go very close to the archipelago but would later recurve/loop back towards the South China Sea. Nakri will most likely come from this. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:31, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nakri (Quiel)
Upgraded to a TS on JMA, 40 mph (35 knots)/998 mbar. Somehow, it's still not a TC according to JTWC yet. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:23, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

Finally declared a tropical depression according to JTWC, although they have it as a measly 30 mph (25 knots). Pressure down a bit to 996 mbar according to JMA, same wind speed. Expected to become a STS or a typhoon threatening Vietnam. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:18, November 5, 2019 (UTC)


 * Intensified a bit to 45 mph (40 knots)/994 mbar (JMA), still a 35 mph (30 knot) TD according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:30, November 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Finally a TS according to JTWC - 45 mph (40 knots). It's been drifting towards the Philippines and expected to sharply turn westward soon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:11, November 6, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nakri (Quiel)
Upgraded to a STS according to JMA, 60 mph (50 knots)/990 mbar. JTWC's intensity is up to 50 mph (45 knots). After drifting very slowly eastward during the past couple days, it should now be turning westward and accelerating towards Vietnam. A typhoon is looking very possible now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:01, November 7, 2019 (UTC)


 * Almost a typhoon...70 mph (60 knots) and 980 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:12, November 7, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Nakri (Quiel)
Upgraded to a typhoon, 75 mph (65 knots) and 975 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:19, November 8, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nakri (Quiel) (2nd time)
Back down to STS status, 65 mph (55 knots) (JTWC) and 70 mph (60 knots)/980 mbar. Hopefully it will be pretty weak when it reaches Vietnam. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:45, November 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nearing landfall, currently 65 mph (55 knots)/985 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:36, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nakri (Quiel) (2nd time)
Down to TS status and making landfall in Vietnam, 50 mph (45 knots)/992 mbar (JMA) and 65 mph (55 knots) (JTWC). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:34, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression/Remnants of Nakri (Quiel)
Nakri is down and out as JTWC and JMA issue their final warnings. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:55, November 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still on JMA's weather map (1002 mbar) but should be completely dead soon. It would be cool if its remnants moved into the NIO and redeveloped like Matmo. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:28, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Nakri (Quiel)
Down and out for good. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:09, November 12, 2019 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
This is up on Tidbits to the southeast of Guam. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:26, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast to move northwest then southwest then westward towards Luzon. Could be a big one, I hope not. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:15, November 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow now. Might become a TD or a TS (if ever, this is likely to become Kalmaegi as 92W is expected to become Fengshen). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:56, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Ramon)
Now a JMA TD, and PAGASA also upgraded at the same time. Code red on JTWC too. The race for Fengshen is on. Forecast to affect Luzon though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:22, November 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Since 26W became Fengshen, this is now a strong candidate to become Kalmaegi. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:03, November 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * The WPac keeps on spitting out storms while all other basins are dead (although a 0/30 AOI in the EPac might briefly become something). This is likely to get as high as STS status, but I doubt a typhoon (for now). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:16, November 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Ramon)
JMA upgrades Ramon to a TS and names it Kalmaegi, JTWC upgrades 91W to TD 27W. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 03:33, November 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 mph (40 knots)/998 mbar according to JMA. Still a depression according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:45, November 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back down to 40 mph (35 knots)/1000 mbar according to JMA. JTWC still refuses to call it a TS. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:41, November 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 mph (40 knots)/998 mbar (again) according to JMA. Its movement has been nearly stationary for a while but it should soon close in on Luzon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:35, November 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensity keeps fluctuating, now 40 mph (35 knots)/1002 mbar according to JMA. But on the bright side, it's a TS at last according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:14, November 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 45 mph (40 knots)/998 mbar (JMA) and 60 mph (50 knots) (JTWC) as it closes in on Luzon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:53, November 17, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Ramon)
Now a STS according to JMA, 65 mph (55 knots)/990 mbar. 70 mph (60 knots) per JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:20, November 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still an STS per JMA, but both PAGASA and JTWC now consider Kalmaegi/Ramon as a typhoon. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:55, November 18, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Kalmaegi (Ramon)
Officially a typhoon per JMA. 120 kph (10-min) / 140 kph (1-min), which means it's a C1 typhoon now. expected to turn southwest and make landfall in Cagayan, at the northern tip of Luzon. This is such an erratic and long-lasting system. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:59, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kalmaegi (Ramon)
Made landfall in Luzon and rapidly weakened to a tropical depression. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:24, November 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still a TS per JTWC, remains a TD per JMA, but PAGASA has downgraded Kalmaegi/Ramon into a low. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:09, November 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now moving sharply southwestward into the South China Sea. Final warning issued by JTWC, still a 1008 mbar TD on JMA's weather map. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:48, November 20, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Kalmaegi (Ramon)
R.I.P. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:55, November 22, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kalmaegi (Ramon) (2nd time)
Seems to be back up on JMA's weather map (1010 mbar) in the South China Sea. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:42, November 22, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Kalmaegi (Ramon) (2nd time)
Dead again, hopefully for good this time. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:35, November 23, 2019 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
Another invest, located near the International Dateline at the moment and forecast to move ENE. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:25, November 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow on JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:37, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (92W)
Up as a TD on JMA's weather map, 1008 mbar. This is likely to become Fengshen. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:37, November 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued, code red too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:56, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26W
Now a TD according to JTWC, and looking likely to be yet another powerful typhoon. At least it should probably stay completely out to sea though. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:19, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fengshen
Upgraded by JMA, still a TD on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:02, November 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upgraded to a TS according to JTWC. Likely to become at least a C2-equivalent fishspinner but will stay weaker than Halong unless some unexpected miracle RI stunt happens. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:20, November 12, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen
Upgraded to a STS, 60 mph (50 knots)/996 mbar according to JMA. Currently 50 mph (45 knots) according to JTWC. Still expected to peak as a 75-80 knot (85-90 mph) typhoon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:30, November 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Continues to gradually intensify, now 65 mph (55 knots)/992 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:48, November 14, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Fengshen
It has reached C1 typhoon strength! Currently 85 mph (75 knots) according to both agencies, and 975 mbars. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:40, November 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now at C2 strength according to JMA (although JTWC is unchanged for now), 100 mph (85 knots)/965 mbars. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:39, November 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Continues to RI, now a C3 according to JTWC (125 mph/110 knots), although JMA keeps the same intensity for now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:37, November 15, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like it has peaked and is now on a weakening trend... 85 mph (75 knots)/975 mbar (JMA) and 115 mph (100 knots) (JTWC). Now moving eastward and models expect the weakened Fengshen and its remnants to perform a pretty big loop away from any land. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:50, November 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 80 mph (70 knots)/980 mbar (JMA) and 105 mph (90 knots) (JTWC). Should probably be down to STS when I wake up in the morning. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:53, November 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fengshen
It has rapidly weakened and is now just a TD according to JMA, with JTWC having issued its final warning on this system. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:51, November 17, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Fengshen
Dead for good. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:26, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
New invest according to Tidbits. Might hit the Philippines like Kalmaegi before the next weekend. This one is near Guam. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:28, November 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Expected to become Sarah and possibly Fung-wong too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 06:05, November 18, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (93W)
Now a 1008 mbar TD according to JMA. The WPac is still literally producing storms nonstop despite the end of the year approaching. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:22, November 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued, intensified to 1006 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:29, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Sarah/93W)
And it has been upgraded by PAGASA too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:31, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 28W (Sarah)
Now a TD per JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:00, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fung-wong (Sarah)
Now a TS per JMA, JTWC, and PAGASA. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:25, November 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * PAGASA's forecast track is kinda different from JMA's - PAGASA takes Fung-wong west northwestward but JMA forecasts it to turn towards eastern Taiwan and parallel its coast. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:08, November 20, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Fung-wong (Sarah)
Already a STS according to JMA - 60 mph (50 knots)/992 mbar. Currently 65 mph (55 knots) according to JTWC and 45 mph (75 kph/40 knots) according to PAGASA. If it continues at this pace, there's a slight chance it could become yet another typhoon, although it will start weakening after tomorrow morning. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:46, November 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Apparently became a typhoon very briefly according to JTWC, although JMA has kept it a STS the whole time. Now on a weakening trend as it passes into the Ryukyu Islands, and expected to dissipate over the weekend. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:54, November 22, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fung-wong (Sarah) (2nd time)
Down to TS intensity according to JMA, 40 mph (35 knots)/1006 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:38, November 22, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fung-wong (Sarah)
Final warning issued by JTWC and down to a 1008 mbar TD according to JMA. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:48, November 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down further to a 1014 mbar TD according to JMA's weather map, which is one of the weakest pressures I've ever seen from a tropical system. Should most likely die out fully overnight. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:08, November 23, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Fung-wong (Sarah)
Finally dead for good. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:53, November 23, 2019 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
New invest in the middle of the WPac according to Tidbits. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:08, November 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC. Could we see yet another storm out of this? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:49, November 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. This could be Kammuri at this rate. This basin has had a really active November, I swear. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:09, November 24, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (94W)
Up as a TD on JMA, 1004 mbar. Still code orange on JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:20, November 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Weakened a bit to 1006 mbar, but I expect possible further intensification in the days ahead. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:40, November 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code red on JTWC with a TCFA issued. Now a warning TD on JMA, 35 mph (30 knots)/1002 mbar according to them. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:22, November 25, 2019 (UTC)

Taking it with a grain of salt but the current GFS run is scary as it takes 94W (possibly Kammuri/Tisoy) towards Central/Southern Luzon by Wednesday next week. I hope this is not another devastating late-season storm for the Philippines, especially now that it is hosting the 30th Southeast Asian Games (SEA Games); not to mention the ongoing fiasco surrounding that event (but that is already off-topic). There is still a chance that 94W would stay at sea though, as the previous runs and other weather models (included in the spaghetti) have shown. This has a potential to be another strong typhoon, by the way. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:24, November 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 29W
And JTWC finally upgrades this system to a TD. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:34, November 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast to RI and reach 105 kt in 5 days. It should be noted that the ECMWF forecasts a repeat of Nock-ten, while the GFS does so intermittently, otherwise not even making it a TY. Still waiting for word from the HWRF. -- Java Hurricane  00:41, November 26, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kammuri
Upgraded by JMA, 40 mph (35 knots)/998 mbar. Here comes another very powerful typhoon. Geez, the activity this month is more reminiscent of August than November; this is the 6th named storm of this month. This must be near or even beating the record for the most active November ever. Looking a bit scary in the long run, let's hope it stays out to sea. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:02, November 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 mph (40 knots)/996 mbar. Currently forecast to become a 130 mph (115 knot) beast per JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:55, November 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks nice and seems to be improving. I'm having a bad feeling that a Haiyan repeat is going to happen... Hopefully not. -- Java Hurricane  17:11, November 26, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Kammuri
It is intensifying... I hope this won't be a bad one. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:45, November 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 65 mph (55 knots)/985 mbar per JMA and 70 mph (60 knots) per JTWC. Forecast peak intensity per JTWC increased to 145 mph (125 knots). Looking increasingly scary for the Philippines... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:32, November 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a typhoon per JTWC, still a Severe TS per JMA. This is getting scarier by the minute, I really hope this would not be a nasty one for (us here in) the Philippines. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:26, November 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * The ECMWF forecasts a 916 mbar typhoon off the coast of Luzon, and takes Kammuri onshore at Category 5 strength. I'm fearing a re-Haiyan now. Hopefully this doesn't happen. -- Java Hurricane  00:25, November 28, 2019 (UTC)

Do you think both Kammuri and Tisoy will be retired or will be reused? Jskylinegtr (talk) 03:54, November 28, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Kammuri
And it is now a typhoon on JMA too. Another deluge in the making as JMA forecasts Kammuri/future Tisoy to reach 925 mbars by December 2-3. Depending on its impact, the names Kammuri and Tisoy might be retired. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:43, November 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently 80 mph (70 knots)/970 mbar per JMA and 85 mph (75 knots) per JTWC. Continues to look worse for the Philippines. Let's all hope it is less severe than other significant storms that struck them in the past, such as Haiyan or Durian. This will probably be the year's next retirement candidate. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🦃   Happy  Thanksgiving!  👪  17:12, November 28, 2019 (UTC)

JMA still forecasts a very strong typhoon (~925 mb) but JTWC significantly lowers its forecast to 105 kts – which translates to a Category 3 typhoon. Still plenty of ocean for Kammuri to intensify though. And it is now expected to directly cross Metro Manila. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:59, November 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up a bit to 90 mph (80 knots)/955 mbar per JMA and 85 mph (75 knots) per JTWC. Even if it might be a bit weaker than originally feared, the Philippines and Metro Manila need to prepare urgently. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:25, November 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Very different forecasts from the two international agencies now. JTWC further lowers its forecast peak to 90 knots -- Category 2 -- but JMA still being consistent with their forecast of a strong typhoon (may or may not be 'super typhoon' status) from this one: they still expect Kammuri's pressure to go down to 925 mbars but to reach 185 kph (100 knots) (10-minute sustained) . For now, it seems that intensification has somehow stalled; same goes for Kammuri's pace too. Meanwhile, I think PAGASA has not yet released an update on this one; they might have opted to wait for Kammuri to enter their jurisdiction tomorrow and be named 'Tisoy'. And I agree with you Steve, Central Luzon, NCR/Metro Manila and Southern Luzon (including Bicol) must prepare for this storm. It has been a while since a typhoon directly crossed those areas. In Manila's case, it's been 5 years (Rammasun/Glenda); for Southern Luzon, Nock-ten/Nina in 2016; and for Central Luzon, it might have been Koppu/Lando 4 years ago. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:34, November 29, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Kammuri (Tisoy)
And it has been named Tisoy after entering the Philippine area of responsibility. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:25, November 30, 2019 (UTC)

With the storm interfereing with the country's hosting of the Southeast Asian Games, do you think the storm will cause over 1 billion pesos in damage for the name to be retired? Jskylinegtr (talk) 12:14, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 90 mph (80 knots)/955 mbar per JMA, but JTWC has weakened it to 75 mph (65 knots) and PAGASA has it as 150 kph (93 mph/80 knots). It's possible that it could be damaging enough to be retired, we'll have to wait and see. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:04, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast track shifted a bit south, now targeting Bicol & the islands of Marinduque, Romblon & Mindoro. Might still shift towards Calabarzon though. While Kammuri turned out to be weaker than expected (so far), this remains a major threat to the country. PAGASA has since raised tropical cyclone wind signal #1 in several provinces in Bicol and Eastern Visayas regions. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:52, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, they should still prepare for potentially devastating impacts. Down to 85 mph (75 knots)/965 mbar according to JMA, and back up to 80 mph (70 knots) per JTWC. Still expected to intensify to a C3-equivalent storm according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:16, December 1, 2019 (UTC)

Now 105 knots (195 kph / 120 mph) on JTWC, 80 knots on JMA (150 kph / 90 mph). Kammuri is nearing landfall but has rapidly intensified from a C1 to a C3 in the past 24 hours. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:13, December 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Winds raised by JTWC to 215 kph (115 knots). Kammuri is now a Category 4, and is now about to make landfall in the southern part of Bicol region. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:19, December 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 90 knots (100 mph)/950 mbar per JMA and 115 knots (130 mph) per JTWC. It intensified quite quickly over the past day, let's hope the Philippines ride it through without any very significant losses. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:34, December 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pretty high pressure for a Category 4 to be honest. This tweet from iCyclone says that the lowest pressure he recorded was 961.9 mbars -- that is usually the pressure of low-end Category 3 tropical cyclones. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:09, December 2, 2019 (UTC)

Kammuri has made 4 landfalls in the Philippines. Entire bicol region is on total blackout due to the typhoon. Weakened to 130 kph (10-min) but Kammuri has brought severe destruction along its path. Legazpi Airport looks like it was bombed; massive damage occurred not only there but throughout Albay, Sorsogon, Catanduanes and the Camarines provinces. The Samar provinces across the San Bernardino Strait also did not escape Kammuri/Tisoy's wrath. Southern Tagalog provinces (Quezon, Batangas, Laguna & the Mindoro provinces) also suffered a heavy beating from this storm. 2 deaths have been reported by news agencies, but the NDRRMC have not verified these fatalities yet. It is almost certain that this is the last time that Tisoy would be used – not sure about Kammuri yet, but recent history would say that Kammuri would get the boot too. Keep in mind that damage totals have not been confirmed yet. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:00, December 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 75 mph (65 knots)/980 mbar per JMA and 90 mph (80 knots) per JTWC as it enters the South China Sea. It's horrifying to hear the damage it has caused so far and hopefully the death toll doesn't rise much further. Tisoy seems like it's going to be a lock for retirement at this rate. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:38, December 3, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Kammuri (Tisoy; 2nd time)
Downgraded to STS status by both PAGASA and JMA, remains a typhoon on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:38, December 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tisoy may have damaged P11.6 billion worth of palay. Jskylinegtr (talk) 15:03, December 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kammuri (Tisoy; 2nd time)
Both JMA & JTWC has downgraded Kammuri/Tisoy to a TS. @Jskylinegtr: if those figures would verify, I think that would put Kammuri/Tisoy among the top 10 costliest typhoons to ever affect the islands. Death toll is reported to have risen to 17. Bicol Region was on total blackout for at least 24 hours; I believe some areas, such as Naga and Legazpi already have electricity today, but Sorsogon -- the province where Kammuri/Tisoy made landfall -- is still without power. It has been reported that no telecommunication signals can be detected from the entire province too. Scenes in that province reminiscent of Haiyan/Yolanda to be honest, but the death toll is much lower (at least 3 have died in the province I think?). I hope they would be able to recover from this sooner rather than later. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:08, December 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dang, those initial damage figures seem pretty high, hopefully it's just an overestimate. What a terrible storm for the Philippines. I'm sorry to hear all those deaths, power outages, and other impacts. BTW, according to WUnderground, Kammuri apparently produced some of the coldest cloud tops on record on Nov. 30 during the time it fluctuated in intensity east of the Philippines. The storm is currently in the middle of the South China Sea, down to 45 mph (40 knots) per JTWC and 40 mph (35 knots)/1000 mbar per JMA, and expected to turn sharply southward as it dissipates. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:59, December 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kammuri (Tisoy)
Down to TD intensity according to JMA and JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:16, December 5, 2019 (UTC)

Initial NDRRMC reports state the initial damage is ₱811 million, but agriculture damage is at ₱1.93 billion. Jskylinegtr (talk) 02:06, December 6, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Kammuri (Tisoy)
It's finally dead. What a terrible storm, looks like Tisoy will surely be retired and Kammuri might have a chance too. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:15, December 6, 2019 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
Another new invest, this one is currently located close to the International Dateline. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:40, November 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * This may not develop into something anymore. When I checked Tidbits it seems that none of the global weather models are expecting this to develop. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:16, November 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Never mind. It's now code yellow on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:17, November 29, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (95W)
Now a 1006 mbar TD according to JMA. Could be a Phanfone candidate. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:28, November 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensified a bit to 1004 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:10, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange on JTWC, now 35 mph (30 knots)/1002 mbar according to JMA. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:06, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still code orange, but downgraded from a warning to a non-warning TD per JMA. Weakened to 1004 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:48, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code red on JTWC (TCFA issued), but down to 1006 mbar per JMA. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:17, December 1, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression (95W)
TCFA cancelled, down to a low on JMA. Still code orange on JTWC though. Phanfone might need to wait (maybe even until next year). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 09:03, December 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to code yellow. This won't form. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:32, December 2, 2019 (UTC) Scratch that, still on code orange. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:54, December 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually now down to code yellow. I highly doubt Phanfone will come from this, unless it redevelops later on. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:08, December 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on JTWC's outlook. Still very possible for Phanfone to come before the end of the year though, but it's starting to get less likely. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:01, December 4, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 96W)
Another TD pops up in JMA's weather map. This one is at the northeast of Kammuri, might become Phanfone or Vongfong depending on 95W's development (the latter is still a low on JMA). Models are indicating that this might be another storm that will hit the Philippines, however this might be absorbed by Kammuri instead. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:41, November 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently 1004 mbar per JMA. This is probably too close to Kammuri to become significant IMO. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:35, November 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow now on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:12, November 28, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression (96W)
No longer found on JMA's weather map, but still code yellow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🦃   Happy  Thanksgiving!  👪  17:15, November 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on JTWC's map either. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:17, November 29, 2019 (UTC)