Forum:2005-06 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

95S.INVEST
We have an invest! The season is about to start.--Holderca1 22:18, 3 September 2005 (UTC)

A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.8S 83.6E, APPROXIMATELY 780 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. MULTI- SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEVELOPED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER LAST 12 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS IN A MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VALUES OF 850 MB VORTICITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POT- ENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

JTWC has issued a TCFA and Meteo France is issuing advisories as Tropical Disturbance 01.--Holderca1 18:29, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
One new invest out there. Backup Navy site currently has some information on it. -- RattleMan 05:36, 1 November 2005 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
And another new invest has just popped up. 91S is still active, also. -- RattleMan 02:29, 4 November 2005 (UTC)

IDW10900 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR THE CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN Issued at 12:00pm WST on Friday the 4th of November 2005 For the area between LONGITUDES 90 - 110 EAST Tropical Low Location         :near 08S 097E about 430 kilometres [230 nautical miles] north of Cocos Islands Central Pressure :1006hPa Recent movement  :west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour [6 knots] DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL Saturday  : low Sunday    : low Monday    : moderate REMARKS - most likely movement of the low is towards the west southwest next 72 hours, slowly intensifying.

-- RattleMan 00:05, 5 November 2005 (UTC)

I think it will be named very soon.--Momoko 06:53, 5 November 2005 (UTC)

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0450UTC 5 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0400UTC Tropical Low located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude eight decimal three south [8.3S] Longitude ninety seven decimal one east [97.1E] Recent movement : south west at 8 knots. Maximum winds   : 30 knots. Central pressure : 1002 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 150 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1600UTC 05 November: within 40 nautical miles of 9.1S 95.6E 998 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0400UTC 06 November: within 70 nautical miles of 10.1S 94.1E 990 hPa. Winds to 45 knots. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 05 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH

The JTWC has just re-issued its South Indian Ocean outlook at 0800 UTC to upgrade chances of this becoming a cyclone to good, from "fair" at 0600 UTC:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 98.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CON- VECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE. A 042342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL DEFINED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUT- FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTEN- TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. -- NS LE ( Commu nicate! ) < Contribs > 08:04, 5 November 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 02S
Welcome Cyclone 02S! WTXS31 PGTW 052100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721Z NOV 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 96.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 96.2E TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.5S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 95.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050721Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//

-- RattleMan 22:44, 5 November 2005 (UTC)

TCWC Perth forecast that 02S will become a tropical cyclone in 12-24 hours and exit their AOR in 24 hours.

FORECAST At 0000UTC 07 November: within 70 nautical miles of 12.9S 89.9E 992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre.

It will be a very embarrassing situation as TCWC Perth should name it if it attains tropical cyclone status just before leaving their AOR, but it will be renamed once it enters Mauritius AOR. I think it will be better for TCWC Perth not to name the system and leave the system to Mauritius and Météo France. -- 202.40.137.197

93S.INVEST
Looks like a new invest has popped up on the Navy site. -- RattleMan 06:28, 18 November 2005 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Bertie
And now it's Cyclone Bertie. -- RattleMan 20:37, 19 November 2005 (UTC)

94S.INVEST
And now a new invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 05:02, 29 November 2005 (UTC)

91P.INVEST - South Pacific
And now...a South Pacific invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 05:10, 3 December 2005 (UTC)


 * They just changed it from 90P to 91P... -- RattleMan 07:37, 3 December 2005 (UTC)


 * And it's gone. -- RattleMan 00:30, 7 December 2005 (UTC)

92S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean
And a South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:13, 5 December 2005 (UTC)


 * It's gone now... -- RattleMan 00:31, 7 December 2005 (UTC)

93S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean
And another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 00:30, 7 December 2005 (UTC)


 * And it's gone. -- RattleMan 05:12, 13 December 2005 (UTC)

94S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean
And yet another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:28, 8 December 2005 (UTC)


 * This invest is gone, but 93S is still there. -- RattleMan 16:28, 11 December 2005 (UTC)

95S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean
...South Indian Ocean invest has popped up... -- RattleMan 05:13, 13 December 2005 (UTC)

96S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean

 * yawn* ...and another South Indian Ocean invest has popped up... -- RattleMan 22:56, 13 December 2005 (UTC)


 * This one appears to be gone... -- RattleMan 00:45, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

97P.INVEST - South Pacific
Whee, a South Pacific invest has popped up. -- RattleMan 22:13, 14 December 2005 (UTC)


 * It's gone...? -- RattleMan 00:45, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

98S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean
A Southern Indian Ocean invest. . -- RattleMan 21:55, 16 December 2005 (UTC)

04S.NONAME
Have no fear, TC04S is here. -- RattleMan 08:45, 24 December 2005 (UTC)


 * Finally, this one has been removed from the site. -- RattleMan 16:40, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

99S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean
The main page is down, but the backup says that 99S has formed. . -- RattleMan 03:39, 17 December 2005 (UTC)


 * This one appeared on the main site for a while, but is gone now in both places. 98S still lives, though. -- RattleMan 09:01, 21 December 2005 (UTC)


 * No, wait! It just reappeared on the Navy site! -- RattleMan 01:42, 22 December 2005 (UTC)


 * This has to be the hardest basin to keep track of - and the most ignored one! CrazyC83 01:19, 24 December 2005 (UTC)


 * Indeed! Anyways, this one is gone now too. -- RattleMan 17:49, 26 December 2005 (UTC)

90S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean
Another Southern Indian Ocean invest. . -- RattleMan 23:35, 25 December 2005 (UTC)


 * Gone... -- RattleMan 00:10, 28 December 2005 (UTC)

91S.INVEST & 92S.INVEST - South Indian Ocean
Two invests for you... -- RattleMan 15:12, 29 December 2005 (UTC)


 * So hard to keep track here! There just aren't too many meteorological agencies in the South Indian and South Pacific away from Australia... CrazyC83 02:00, 30 December 2005 (UTC)


 * Indeed! Now, 92S is gone. -- RattleMan 16:39, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

91S Is Starting to look good though might develop NONAME 2:10EST 1 December 2006


 * Well, the South Pacific has been unusually quiet so far in the season. Perhaps it's taking up where the Atlantic left off? bob rulz 08:46, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

And this one is finally gone. -- RattleMan 16:27, 8 January 2006 (UTC)

93P.INVEST - South Pacific
Here's some South Pacific activity, Bob! -- RattleMan 18:01, 1 January 2006 (UTC)


 * It's gone... -- RattleMan 01:11, 4 January 2006 (UTC)

94S.INVEST - South Indian
Indian Ocean invest... -- RattleMan 01:11, 4 January 2006 (UTC)


 * This one is finally gone. -- RattleMan 00:58, 10 January 2006 (UTC)

95S.INVEST - South Indian
Another Indian Ocean invest... -- RattleMan 03:39, 5 January 2006 (UTC)


 * ...well, that was short lived...gone! -- RattleMan 07:54, 5 January 2006 (UTC)

96S.INVEST - South Indian
And...another Indian Ocean invest appeared... -- RattleMan 06:23, 5 January 2006 (UTC)


 * And it's gone as 97S replaces it. Is something fishy here? -- RattleMan 21:47, 5 January 2006 (UTC)

97S.INVEST - South Indian
You've got to be kidding me...97S forms... -- RattleMan 21:47, 5 January 2006 (UTC)

05S.CLARE
Oh my, another cyclone! 97S developed into TC Clare, I think...according to PERTH... -- RattleMan 21:11, 7 January 2006 (UTC)


 * And the Navy site has updated with the new name. -- RattleMan 02:00, 8 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Get ready everyone, forecast says this will develop into a severe cyclone! Forecast says that it will intesify to a catergory 3 or 4 as it approaches land. This is moving very fast! 211.26.31.114


 * Shoot. -- Sarsaparilla39 09:52, 8 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Soon to be worthy of an article? Although we have to wait and get information until that happens, due to the sparsely populated landscape... CrazyC83 15:56, 8 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Apparently, it's now Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare with 97 knot/112 mph max wind gusts... -- RattleMan 16:21, 8 January 2006 (UTC)


 * It's wind gusts that matter there I assume? That would be barely a Category 2 at the most in the Atlantic... CrazyC83 03:34, 9 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Yeah, it's a odd system indeed... -- RattleMan 04:04, 9 January 2006 (UTC)


 * The maximum sustaiend winds near center is just 75kt, not a really strong cyclone. I expect the landfall intensity to be 75-85kt only. Momoko 08:30, 9 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Advisory 24 puts max speeds at 220 KM/H (about 100 mph)!!! If i'm not mistaken, those are winds of hurricane katrina! Evacuations have started. This is worthy of an article alright! &mdash;The preceding unsigned comment was added by M cappeluti (talk &bull; contribs).
 * No, not worthy. It has caused no damage or deaths yet. A storm is not worthy for having 220 km/h gusts. NSL E (T+C) 09:07, 9 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Yawn Katrina was huge, Clare is pretty small. Katrina was weakening, Clare is strengthening. (Weakening storms are almost always more damaging than strengthening: compare Hurricane Frances and Hurricane Jeanne's effects in the US, for example.) More importantly, Clare is hitting a pretty lightly-populated area with gusts up to ~120 mph. That translates to maybe 90 mph sustained, a strong Cat 1 by the SS Scale but nothing to be seriously worried about. - Cuivienen 15:00, 9 January 2006 (UTC)

Clare looked good for a while there when she was over land, but now she's gone. -- RattleMan 23:35, 10 January 2006 (UTC)


 * The Australian scale for intensity is definitely one that should be refined. The peak wind gusts are extremely difficult to measure and quite meaningless as external factors can play a role in them as well. That "Category 3" cyclone would have been, at the most, a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale with 100-105 mph winds. CrazyC83 03:19, 11 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Though peak wind gusts are extremely difficult to forecast, the category stated in the advisory is indeed based on the estimated gust using Dvorak techniques and a certain conversion. External factors do play a role in the gust but, according to my past experience, they doesn't affect the conversion at all. That estimated gust is just a rough figure and for reference only. NHC also estimates the gust of a hurricane using a fixed conversion between sustained winds and gust, doesn't it? Momoko


 * Peak sustained winds from JTWC advisories was 75kt (140 km/h, 85mph) NSL E (T+C) 03:23, 11 January 2006 (UTC)
 * That's the same as TCWC Perth. Momoko

Ex tropicial cyclone clare is now just a tropical low. A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for the goldfields and wheatbelt region for destructive winds, flash flooding and hail. And the remnants have reached as far down south as Perth (where i live) with steady ongoing moderate rainfall. -- M cappeluti

98P.INVEST - South Pacific
Looks like this season is heating up. 98P forms. -- RattleMan 23:48, 6 January 2006 (UTC)
 * It sure is heating up! None of them are developing though... CrazyC83 15:25, 7 January 2006 (UTC)

04S.NONAME?
I think it's now TD04... -- RattleMan 21:18, 7 January 2006 (UTC)


 * It be gone. -- RattleMan 00:57, 10 January 2006 (UTC)

But can it live once more? TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1001HPA] NEAR 13S 175E AT 102100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29-30C. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED TO THE NORTH OF THE APPARENT LLCC IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. WARM MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH, WHILE A LOW LEVEL SURGE FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MINIMAL SHEAR TOGETHER WTH GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENCE ARE EXPECTED TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW AND MODERATE THEREAFTER.

-- RattleMan 00:30, 11 January 2006 (UTC)

99P.INVEST/TD05
This invest has popped up on the Navy site, and the Fiji Meteorolgical Service (RSMC Nadi) released this saying it's TD05. -- RattleMan 00:22, 11 January 2006 (UTC)

06P.TAM
It's now 99P (yes, 99P) Tam. -- RattleMan 21:53, 12 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Ok, now NRL changed the name from "99P.TAM" to "06P.TAM". -- RattleMan 01:23, 13 January 2006 (UTC)


 * It should technically by 04F.TAM NSL E (T+C) 01:48, 13 January 2006 (UTC)

90P.INVEST
And another Pacific invest has popped up on the Navy site. -- RattleMan 04:51, 11 January 2006 (UTC)

91P.INVEST
And another Pacific invest has popped up on the Navy site. TD06F. -- RattleMan 22:02, 13 January 2006 (UTC)

07P.URMIL
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 91P (URMIL) B. 14/0530Z C. 17.7S/5 D. 173.1W/2 E. FOUR/GOES10 F. T3.5/3.5/STT: D2.0/12HRS (14/0530Z) G. IR/EIR LLCC 13A/PBO BANDING EYE/ANMTN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS .80 ON    LOG10 SPIRAL FOR DT OF 3.5. DBO DT. PT SUPPORTS. AODT: 4.5.

It seems that Urmil has broken the constraint for Dvorak technique. A rise of two whole T numbers in 12 hours is really amazing! Momoko

Urmil had been intensifying at a horrible rate yesterday until 1200UTC. I can hardly believe that a storm can reach T4.0 just 18 hours after NRL considered it as a disturbance and RSMC Nadi considered it as a tropical depression. TCWC Bribane made me even more surprised by setting DT=5.5 yesterday. Momoko

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1401 UTC 2006 UTC. Urmil has undergone explosive development in the last 6 hours. Primary band has completely wound around LLCC. Dvorak analysis based on a 1.1 log-10 spiral wrap, gives a DT=PT=4.0 and MET=3.0, yields T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24hrs breaking constraints.

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (URMIL) B. 14/1130Z C. 19.8S/8 D. 172.6W/6 E. FOUR/GOES10 F. T4.0/4.0/D2.5/18HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (14/1130Z) G. IR/EIR LLCC 13A/PBO BANDING EYE/ANMTN. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. CONVECTION WRAPS 1.10 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR DT OF 4.0. DBO DT. PT SUPPORTS. AODT: 4.7.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY Queensland Region Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre SATELLITE ANALYSIS BULLETIN 1257 UTC 14 January 2006 Tropical Cyclone "URMIL" 141230 UTC Located near 19.6S 172.7 W Analysis based on: GOES10 IRHR imagery at 141020 UTC. Latitude Detection Sum : 16 Longitude Detection Sum: 17 Dvorak analysis T5.5/4.0/D2.0/24hrs [see notes] NOTES: WHR Brisbane- evidence of eye from GOES IR / SSMIS imagery. Using EIR E no = 6.0 [white], E adj=-1.0. SSMIS indicated BF = 0.5. Final DT=5.5. Final T-no 4.0 given model constraints - expected Met 3.0 [for rapid developer] and allowing for +1.0 range from Met. Missing latest satellite CIMMS upper winds pass over system. System accelerating as it moves into stronger vertical shear. Initial rapid development as system moves into area of increased upper divergence with increasing upper outflow channel. System moving at approx 19kts.

92S and 93S.INVEST
Hey, there's two invests. =P -- RattleMan 03:17, 17 January 2006 (UTC)

94S.INVEST
A new invest has popped up on the navy website http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html] and is posing threat to land (by which i mean W.A) Here's the latest advice as of 2.45 P.M WST from TCWC PERTH:

IDW24100 BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 7 Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Wednesday, 18 January 2006 BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas between Kalumburu and Bidyadanga. A CYCLONE WATCH extends south from Bidyadanga to Port Hedland.

At 2pm WST a developing tropical low was located near Kuri Bay on the west Kimberley coast, approximately 250 kilometres north northeast of Derby and 235 kilometres west southwest of Kalumburu and is almost stationary.

The tropical low may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. Gales are not expected in coastal areas today but may develop on Thursday. Rainfall over the Kimberley is expected to be widespread and heavy in parts during the remainder of the week.

Details of the tropical low at 2pm WST.

Location of centre : within 60 kilometres of                      Latitude  15.5 South Longitude 124.4 East. Recent movement   : almost stationary. Central Pressure  : 992 hPa. The State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. People in coastal areas between Port Hedland and Kalumburu should listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 6pm WST Wednesday 18 January. Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone M cappeluti

08S.DARYL
It is now Daryl, and NRL names it 94S.DARYL. -- RattleMan 21:00, 18 January 2006 (UTC)


 * NRL changed it to 08S.DARYL. -- RattleMan 00:34, 19 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Another storm that makes the Australian category system useless...called a Category 3 yet would be a Category 1 here - I wonder how they prepare for damage there with the different system, since the warnings would seem harsher? CrazyC83 04:26, 21 January 2006 (UTC)

I agree. The system needs a total revamp. At least they are ready for one though. By the way, it's now a minor cyclone that will turn into a tropical low and could cause flooding in the SW land division, like what clare did. -- M cappeluti

95P, 96S and 97S.INVEST
95P has come and gone, but here's two invests. =P -- RattleMan 22:46, 23 January 2006 (UTC)

09S.NONAME

 * Apparently now 96S has developed into 09S.NONAME. -- RattleMan 01:16, 25 January 2006 (UTC)


 * JTWC has a TCFA on it; TCWC Perth has it as a developing Tropical Low . NSL E (T+C) 01:27, 25 January 2006 (UTC)
 * It's a La Reunion cyclone. Now a TD says the RSMC. NSL E (T+C) 04:48, 25 January 2006 (UTC)

09S.BOLOETSE
Now Boloeste. -- RattleMan 20:23, 25 January 2006 (UTC)

09S.EX-BOLOETSE
An overland depression, but a TCFA is now out for it, remnants of Boloetse NW of Antananarivo. NSL E (T+C) 恭喜发财!  00:55, 31 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Now a TD. NSL E (T+C) 11:29, 31 January 2006 (UTC)

98S & 99P.INVEST
98S has come and gone, but here's 99P. =P -- RattleMan 01:26, 28 January 2006 (UTC)

10P.JIM
99P is now apparently Jim. -- RattleMan 01:26, 28 January 2006 (UTC)


 * NRL confirms. -- RattleMan 03:04, 28 January 2006 (UTC)

92S and 93P.INVEST
After at least three days without any invests/etc anywhere in the world (or NRL, at least), these two appear to break it. -- RattleMan 22:01, 8 February 2006 (UTC)

Carina, Vaianu, 94S-99S, 91P and 92P
Ok, here's a lot of systems that I forgot to mention. I believe 90S is now Carina, and 98S was Vaianu. -- RattleMan 06:03, 20 February 2006 (UTC)


 * I'm sorry to tell you that Mauritius refused to name the system. Momoko

Carina is now a monster, 130 knots, 910 mb. -- RattleMan 02:57, 28 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Is Carina a land threat? If so, it should be moved to its own article. 150/910 as peak intensity seems quite low; I am sure it will crack Category 5 soon! CrazyC83 04:04, 28 February 2006 (UTC)


 * Carina will only be a threat to ships and fish and it's about to weaken right now - Yarrah 22:46, 28 February 2006 (UTC)

Larry, Wati
Queensland is really poor. They may have to face another tropical system after Larry though it may not be as strong as Larry. Momoko

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI Mar 19/0154 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 16F centre [998hPa] was located near 15.3 South 166.0 East at 190000 UTC. Position fair based on MTSAT/VIS imagery with animation, peripheral surface reports and recent SSMI passes. Depression moving westsouthwest at about 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 25 to 30 knots, increasing to 35 knots in the next 12 hours.

LLCC placed on southern edge of deep convection. System continues to organise as it clears the Vanuatu island chain. Outflow good in the sector from northwest to south and becoming good elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on log10 spiral wrap of .55 yields DT=2.5, MET=2.5 and PT=2.5. FT based on PT yields T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24hrs. 16F lies just to the north of the 250hPa subtropical ridge and is moving under the ridge in an area of increasing diffluence. Environmental shear over 16F is about 10 knots. The depression is expected to steer southwestwards in response to a building midlevel ridge to the east. ECMWF picks up the circulation from tonight and develops it further while moving it westwards. Other global models, on the other hand, have not picked up the recent development of 16F and just maintain an easterly wave moving westwards towards the Australia's east coast in the wake of Tropical Cyclone Larry.


 * Down to 920 mbar! This thing IS really bad!!! CrazyC83 18:51, 19 March 2006 (UTC)


 * Yes, and 16 is now Wati, looking to head toward the same general area Larry is hitting now! -- RattleMan 20:29, 19 March 2006 (UTC)


 * Exactly what they don't need; most of the banana crop's gone and a lot of damage, esp. in Innisfail. I don't know about the States, but for Australia this is v. v. bad. -- Sarsaparilla39 09:19, 21 March 2006 (UTC)

Floyd
BoM has a warning out for this system in the Indian Ocean here QazPlm 23:42, 20 March 2006 (UTC)


 * The maximum sustained wind is now 105 knots, just 5 knots from a category 5 cyclone on the Australian scale. Can it become a category 5 like Larry? Momoko
 * It is a cat. 5 now. It has 115 kt winds and a preassure of 927 mb. If this affects land anytime soon, will this get an article? Icelandic Hurricane #12 13:07, 24 March 2006 (UTC)

97P.INVEST
What will become of that? Icelandic Hurricane #12 22:16, 22 March 2006 (UTC)


 * Coastal wind warning is now being issued. Winds may reach 20/30 knots with scattered squalls to 45 knots. I think this will become either George or Glenda if it can track further away from land. Momoko
 * This Invest is real serious now. It has a very developed circulation and all. All it needs are the winds and the ocean. Icelandic Hurricane #12 13:08, 24 March 2006 (UTC)

Glenda
That's right. — Cuivi é nen , Monday, 27 March 2006 @ 13:06 (UTC)

Glenda was named by Perth TCWC. Shouldn't it be listed under Southeast Indian Ocean/Western Australia? If it were an NT cyclone, it would be TC George, no? QazPlm 23:29, 27 March 2006 (UTC)
 * This is true. I've moved it. Glenda is also now a Cat 1 on the SS Scale. Per the Navy site. — Cuivi é nen , Tuesday, 28 March 2006 @ 03:15 (UTC)


 * TCWC Perth had made it 90kt now and expect it to reach 105kt by tomorrow morning. It will be a terrible storm! Momoko


 * According to TCWC Perth, as of 28/0300 UTC, Glenda has deepened 50 mbar in the past 24 hours (it became TC 20S at 0300 UTC yesterday) - from 990 mbar to 940 mbar. Impressive! --Coredesat 04:59, 28 March 2006 (UTC)


 * Southern Hemisphere pressure readins, like the Western Pacific, are not always accurate. NSL E (T+C) at 05:19 UTC (2006-03-28)

Well, accurate or not, the JTWC and NRL are in agreement with Perth - NRL shows a pressure of 927 mbar, and Perth estimates a pressure of 925 mbar. Both are calling for Glenda to become quite a monster in the next day or two, with the JTWC forecasting 150 kt winds (1-min avg) in 36 hours, and TCWC Perth forecasting 120 kt winds (10-min avg) in 24 hours. --Coredesat 09:34, 28 March 2006 (UTC)


 * Unconfirmed report of 140 kt and 898 mbar! CrazyC83 19:29, 28 March 2006 (UTC)


 * Good lord! Could Glenda be the next Cyclone Zoe? Looks like it's weakening, but anything is possible. Jake52 28 March 2006


 * Back down to Cat 4, now predicting Cat 3 at landfall. Quite a strong storm, but nothing ridiculous like Zoe. If it maintains its strength, it will probably deserve its own article. — Cuivi é nen , Wednesday, 29 March 2006 @ 00:47 (UTC)


 * Looks like Glenda has completed an Eyewall Replacement Cycle. It's got a rather noticable eye now forming, but it doesn't have long to go before landfall. Jake52

Looks like another one worthy of it's own article. Weakened to a catagory 4 on the australian scale (catagory 2 on the SS scale) but anything can happen. Looks like Mardie will get the direct hit. M cappeluti 11:20, 30 March 2006 (UTC)


 * Eventually, Glenda took a slightly less southerly track before landfall and Onslow got a direct hit. It seems that Glenda weakened quite a bit before reaching Onslow as the maximum winds there were only 62 knots gusting to 84 knots and the pressure was 971.9 hPa. The final BoM track map made Glenda a Cat3 near Onslow.


 * I'm glad that Perth is going to prepare a brief summary of TC Glenda later today. It seems that even NHC won't do so. Momoko

90S.INVEST
A SW Indian Ocean invest is up. It was getting quiet there for a bit.
 * Gone. It became extratropical this morning. --Coredesat 00:34, 2 April 2006 (UTC)

91S.INVEST/92P.INVEST
NRL says we have a 91S, which is also 92P: Not much there worthy of note, though. --Coredesat 00:34, 2 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Gone. --Coredesat 14:38, 2 April 2006 (UTC)

93S.INVEST
Another one has popped up. Icelandic Hurricane #12 15:36, 2 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Looking about ready to become Hubert. — Cuivi é nen , Sunday, 2 April 2006 @ 23:57 (UTC)

21S.HUBERT
NRL has this listed as 21S.NONAME now, while the JTWC has a TCFA out on it. BOM Perth TCWC notes "(Tropical) Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours"... NSL E (T+C) at 08:29 UTC (2006-04-05)
 * Now Hubert from the NRL. — Cuivi é nen , Wednesday, 5 April 2006 @ 22:19 (UTC)

94S.INVEST
And another. This one looks ready to develop. — Cuivi é nen , Sunday, 2 April 2006 @ 23:55 (UTC)
 * Got to be the longest-lasting INVEST now. Still looks ripe for development. — Cuivi é nen , Tuesday, 11 April 2006 @ 03:41 (UTC)
 * 9 days! Has there been any other invests even close to this long? Icelandic Hurricane #12 23:36, 11 April 2006 (UTC)

22S.ELIA

 * After 9 days, TCWC Perth is now calling for the formation of a tropical cyclone. Can it really develop? Momoko


 * Now 22S.NONAME from the NRL. — Cuivi é nen , Thursday, 13 April 2006 @ 01:44 (UTC)
 * According to the Navy site, 22S has 35kt winds and a preassure of 997 mb. So would it be a tropical storm now? Or is it different in the Indian Ocean? Icelandic Hurricane #12 11:10, 13 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Elia now. — Cuivi é nen , Friday, 14 April 2006 @ 00:06 (UTC)

95S.INVEST
One more. — Cuivi é nen , Thursday, 6 April 2006 @ 22:53 (UTC) Gone. 69.86.17.202

96S.INVEST
Another one, nothing too spectacular. -- RattleMan 01:58, 13 April 2006 (UTC)
 * Poof! --Coredesat 01:43, 14 April 2006 (UTC)

97P.INVEST
Here's one from the SPAC! -- RattleMan 20:28, 14 April 2006 (UTC)

98S.INVEST
Another Indian Ocean one. -- RattleMan 22:51, 16 April 2006 (UTC)

23P.MONICA
Don't know why you haven't picked this one up, but developed a while ago. Catagory 2 on the australian scale and hit the Queensland coast yesterday. Now sitting in the Gulf of Carpenteria and is excepted to re - intensify. Something that i've just found out, and something that may interest you, is that Monica hit the same spot as Ingrid did, and is forecast to make landfall in the Northern Territory! Can it hit W.A as well and do a Ingrid? M cappeluti 04:29, 20 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Monica has just been relocated half a degree to the south, so it is unlikely that it can pass through the seas north of NT and hit WA like Ingrid. Momoko


 * BoM says the cyclone has recently turned to the north northeast. What's going on? If Monica continues to go north, there will be a chance that it won't make landfall and intensify north of NT. Momoko

BOM now saying that it will be a cat 5 when it hits land! And Nhulunbuy is smack bang in the middle of her path! M cappeluti 02:50, 22 April 2006 (UTC)

The gust have gone up to 320 km/h, which is stronger than Carina, Larry as well as Glenda! I can't remember exactly the corresponding sustained winds, it should be either 120 or 125 knots (10-minute average). Let's wait for the next high seas warning. Momoko


 * The 1-minute average seems to be around 135 knots based on conversion factors. It is definitely a SS Cat 4. CrazyC83 23:06, 22 April 2006 (UTC)

Is it just me, or am I seeing something VERY similar to Cyclone Ingrid from last year? As Monica will probably reach the western "Hurricane Alley", it could be something that will be comparable to Ingrid, only larger.Omni ND 17:54, 22 April 2006 (UTC)


 * It basically is Ingrid v2.0 right now. I just hope it doesn't turn and hit a city (Darwin). — Cuivi é nen, Sunday, 23 April 2006 @ 01:24 UTC 

Darwin now forecast it to weaken. The highest 10-minute sustained winds were 125 knots, which should make it the strongest cyclone of the season. Fortunately, hurricane force winds are not expected to affetc mainland Australia in next 24 hours. Momoko

877 mbar according to the latest Dvarok estimates!!! This is getting insane!!! CrazyC83 03:59, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The SSD's Dvorak estimate was 7.0, the automated CIMSS Dvorak was 7.8. Either way, this is a serious cyclone. Aside from land interaction, I don't see any reason for it to weaken, aside from EWRCs. Shear is very low and SSTs are high. --Coredesat 04:03, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * It is the most intense tropical cyclone ever outside of the Western Pacific if that is indeed correct - and the lowest pressure ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere. CrazyC83 04:06, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * 877 mb? Sweet Jesus! I can't believe it! I wonder if another Atlantic hurricane will beat that record this year? -- RattleMan 05:04, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The official 1pm (3.30 am UTC) advisory from BoM indicates 925hPa, not 877. NSL E (T+C) at 05:13 UTC (2006-04-23)


 * As such, I have adjusted the infobox to 925, and removed the bit about 877. If you guys want 877 mentioned in the article please note down that it's not an official reading supplied by the BoM. NSL E (T+C) at 05:33 UTC (2006-04-23)


 * I have added a note in the page saying that it is an estimated unoffical automatic reading. I think it is worthy of it being there as it is a data source, even if it is unoffical as well as being an important pointer on how strong this cyclone could be from these readings.- Boochan 05:52, 23 April 2006 (UTC)

Official advisory now indicates gusts to 350 km/h and an estimated pressure of 905 mb. The SSD estimate is 898 mb, and unofficial or not, I'd lean toward the 898 estimate. --Coredesat 08:05, 23 April 2006 (UTC)

Darwin pushes the maximum sustained winds up to 135 knots, the highest in recent years! JTWC gave T7.5 at 0530UTC.Momoko IR/EIR/VIS/MSI                     LLCC 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. A 46NM CMG BAND SURROUNDS A 10NM WMG EYE, FOR A CF OF 6.5. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT, EQUALLING A DT OF 7.5. FINAL T IS BASED ON DT. PT AND MET SUPPORT. AODT: 7.6.

NRL made it 145 knots and 892 mb at 0600UTC. Momoko SH, 23, 2006042306, , BEST,   0, 113S, 1374E, 145,  892, ST

If the 877 mb estimate is correct, then this is WORSE than Hurricace Wilma! What's the record for lowest pressure ever recorded? M cappeluti 11:06, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The record for the lowest pressure ever recorded would go to Typhoon Tip of 1979. It had a minimum central pressure of 870 that wasn't extrapolated using the Atkinson-Holliday tecchnique. In fact, it was confirmed by reconnaissance aircraft. Tip was also the largest tropical cyclone ever, and tied Hurricane Camille and Hurricane Allen for the highest windspeeds.Omni ND 12:49, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * This thing is tiny by comparison to even Katrina and Rita. It would be like Wilma at peak intensity before the first eyewall cycle. CrazyC83 15:21, 23 April 2006 (UTC)

Wow. Monica has just strengthened to 145 knots and is of severe danger to northern Australia. The JTWC now anticipates weakening only to 130 knots in 48 hours, and Monica would be over land by then, just south of Darwin. If Monica tracks west by 50 miles, it would be a direct hit on Darwin at an intensity and size stronger that Cyclone Tracy! Watch out, all you historic strong storms, because Monica is hot on your tracks. BTW, when are we going to start an article for it?Omni ND 15:19, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The article would be short on impact, but since this is becoming historic, an article would be a good idea to have soon. That northwestern track dead into Darwin would also put Monica over water much longer, strengthening the storm. CrazyC83 15:21, 23 April 2006 (UTC)

I've found a beautiful infrared image of Monica; I'm uploading it now. It looks even more perfect than the infrared image of Rita. — Cuivi é nen, Sunday, 23 April 2006 @ 16:43 UTC 
 * Here it is:
 * [[Image:Cyclone Monica.gif|350px]]
 * — Cuivi é nen, Sunday, 23 April 2006 @ 16:47 UTC 

The source that had the 877 mbar pressure has dropped it down to 869 mbar. If that measurement turns out to be correct, it is a new world record!!! CrazyC83 18:47, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The latest Australian report has raised the pressure up to 910 hPa; that seems bizarre, though I do not trust Dvorak readings for this cyclone; they haven't been 'truthed' in the way NW Pacific ones were. --Nilfanion 19:45, 23 April 2006 (UTC)

Not to add any more bad news for Australia, but Monica sort of looks like an annular hurricane in that pic. Omni ND 19:33, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * I can't beileve what is taking place down there. If that Cyclone hit a city then you can kiss it good-bye. The pressure should be around Wilma's or lower right now. That is a amazing picture, if it was bigger then it could be the worst ever. If it's at 869 mbars then I'm going to freak out!! The strongest storm in world history!! Why the heck is there no article!!? Get one up somebody! 216.110.254.167 19:57, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * There are three numbers going around right now - that 869, the JTWC's 879 estimate and the BoM's 905 (now 910) measurement. Which one is correct, I don't know. CrazyC83 20:24, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The BoM's is the official one - it is the TCWC for the area but that doesn't mean its the most accurate though. I don't know enough about how Dvorak works to comment on the validity of the 869, but the conversion used is for the Pacific (NW Pacific presumably), perhaps the background pressure near Australia is significantly higher than in the NW Pacific? --Nilfanion 20:40, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Why did the BoM raise the pressure when the Navy, TCWC, and DVORAK estimates lowered it? I wish there was a reconaissance aircraft getting real pressure estimates, but I suppose it's not in the mentality of Australians. Americans like to spend a little extra money to get hard data that don't conflict. Australians consider satellite estimates good enough, because all one really needs to know if the storm is really bad! Interesting philosophy I just inferred today... &mdash;BazookaJoe 20:58, 23 April 2006 (UTC)


 * Why the heck is there no article? What the heck is going on here? If no one puts a article up I will and Monica made a landfall already so it's worth it. 216.110.254.167 01:40, 24 April 2006 (UTC)


 * It had been created and removed previously by the administrator, although being at legendary status does make the article worthy IMO. I want to wait for the green light though... CrazyC83 01:59, 24 April 2006 (UTC)


 * It got deleted by the admin? That is not only crazy, but that makes Wikipedia less of a great site by removing very important articles. Why not start one now because it's going to have a article anyways soon? Tell the Admin that it's insane not to put up a article on maybe what is the most powerful Topical Cyclone ever. It already made landfall 2 times I think so what's the reason again? 216.110.254.167 02:07, 24 April 2006 (UTC)


 * I re-created it, although it looks completely different than it did before. Only brief mention is being made to the 869; the infobox pressure and the one officially going down (for the moment) is 905 mbar - the Bureau of Meteorology estimate - until we get better clarity over these disputed numbers. CrazyC83 03:41, 24 April 2006 (UTC)


 * I think BoM raise the pressure based on data they received. The sustained winds are unchanged, so I don't think it implies a weakening. NRL always made direct conversion from sustained winds and I don't treat that pressure as anything reliable. Momoko

Maybe someone can contact BOM for why their numbers are higher than the other sources. M cappeluti 09:01, 24 April 2006 (UTC)

868.5mb following this http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt26.html. BoM evaluates at 915mb. How can this be possible? RQSTR 10:58, 24 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The BoM is being conservative (I would believe a sub-900), but the 869 Dvorak figure is inaccurate, in that it is just an automatic conversion from the Dvorak intensity, which may well not be appropriate for cyclones in that location. --Nilfanion 11:15, 24 April 2006 (UTC)

For some strange and unexplained reason, the BoM is forecasting Monica (or its remnants) to recurve to the northwest and strike Darwin almost head-on before moving back out to sea. This isn't what any of the models are indicating, so I'd like to know why they're doing that. --Coredesat 02:57, 25 April 2006 (UTC)


 * The external link (16) for the source is now broken. Nothing new about the official pressure for Monica? RQSTR 19:47, 3 May 2006 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
Navy site shows an invest in the SE Indian Ocean. --Nilfanion 22:39, 24 April 2006 (UTC)
 * TCFA released. NSL E (T+C) at 08:46 UTC (2006-04-27)
 * On the NRL track image, it says "CANCELED"...I guess that means the TCFA was canceled? -- RattleMan 23:18, 29 April 2006 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
Navy site has 92S.INVEST...92 for you! -- RattleMan 09:22, 29 April 2006 (UTC)
 * And its gone.--Nilfanion 17:58, 29 April 2006 (UTC)