Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Open Atlantic
Another new one associated with a tropical wave at 10/20. Development is a bit doubtful before it interacts with upper-level winds by the weekend. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Just archived July here and in the other forums, but the ATL is still sleeping right now. It'll pick up a bit later, just not this moment. Ryan1000 03:58, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now down to 10/10. I doubt this one would form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:04, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0. Still on the TWO though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 20:01, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Slightly Southwest of Where Emily Formed
A new AOI has popped up in the gulf. This AOI is only at 10/10, and though it probably won't become anything, I'm not discounting it after Emily formed so quickly in almost the same location. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:22, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 0/0, but like the AOI above, it is also still on the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!- 70.190.5.175 20:01, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

The Atlantic is sleeping again, but it should not sleep for much longer. It is likely that activity will explode after mid-August, and just having TSs that don't do much by this point in the year is common. In fact I think the season has been quite active so far, as many seasons (like 2004 and 2009 and many in the 20th century) were really inactive at the beginning (but many would end up very active, like 2004). For those new here, just having a lot of TSs that don't do much (or not much activity overall) by early August does not usually mean a pathetic season overall. Last year had its first in-season hurricane and second hurricane overall (at the "E" storm) form on this day after a dead July, and that season still got very active. 2015 was going pathetically, with only 3 TSs by this point (but it would end up as a near-average season). The best analogs to this season would be 2011 (whose 5th named storm formed today and had 8 TSs to start the season off before exploding) and 2006 (not counting Zeta, 4 TSs formed by this point in the year before the season exploded at the end of August and September; the season was still overall near-average though). Even 2010 and 2012 could be considered as analogs if not for Alex's and Chris' strength, as we are talking about all TSs by this point of the year. But beware, 2013 was also a good analog to this year (with 4 TSs compared to the 5 TSs and 1 TD so far this year, and both seasons had early MDR formations), and we know how that season turned out. No one knows how the current season will eventually turn out, but my gut feeling says an active season like last year is a good possibility. Let's just hope 2013 does not repeat itself this year. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:41, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging off Africa
Just after I wrote the above, I checked NHC to see a 10/30 tropical wave emerging off Africa. I think this is more likely to be a named storm than the other recent waves that popped up on the TWO (such as the 10/20 one that died out earlier). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:52, August 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Both the GFS and the Euro are already on board with this AOI. Although they don't expect this to become a particularly big storm (in size), they do make it a hurricane in the long run, the GFS taking it into the northeastern U.S, particularly Nantucket Island and Massachusetts, while the Euro moves it into the upper Lessers (Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico) before dying over Hispaniola. However, if the Euro's scenario pans out, this may need to be watched closer, because Irene of 2011 was also forecast to move over Hispaniola and die out, but it instead skipped north of the island and hit the U.S. east coast. While this is all still very far out, the Atlantic may definitely be kicking up again, starting with this wave. Ryan1000 02:50, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50. This is looking to be a Cape Verde-type hurricane in the coming days/weeks. Here comes Franklin (I hope). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:16, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is most definitely going to be Franklin. Unfortunately, this could be a bad storm. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:36, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/60. The Euro has backed off on this system with their latest run, instead showing a different storm forming in the BoC in a week, but the new run of the GFS takes this into Savannah, GA as a formidable major hurricane in the long run. If conditions remain favorable for this storm, it'll probably end up being a furious and compact, but intense, storm, and if the GFS does get this one accurate (unlike the AOI after TD 4 that they hyped early last month), then the U.S. might not get lucky from Franklin-to-be. Ryan1000 13:54, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
It's now been invested. 12Z GFS run now takes this recurving from the U.S. east coast into Atlantic Canada, but this is still a long ways out. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:41, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Things don't seem to be looking good with this - and could be our first hurricane of the season I think. Hopefully conditions will permit and we will get ourselves a pretty long lived fish storm to track across the Atlantic that doesn't bother anyone. Owen 18:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/70. I believe this will become Franklin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:24, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This thing just jumped to 40/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:48, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am really hoping that this is a fishspinner like Owen said. We do not need a devastating east coast hurricane. I have a feeling this will be Franklin and the Caribbean wave be Gert. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:51, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Currently 50/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * The last few runs of the GFS have been recurving this out to sea just before hitting the eastern U.S, which is fortunate and would make this look like a re-Earl (2010), but it's still a long ways out. The Euro is actually more enthusiastic about the Caribbean wave than this one. Ryan1000 12:59, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Future-Franklin should hopefully be a fishspinner and let's hope that GFS is right on their latest runs and it does not impact the east coast. This is likely to be the season's first hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:15, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 18Z GFS run on tropicaltidbits.com now shows this heading on a more southernly path, along the lines of what the Euro was predicting before, and skimming along the northern greater Antilles before turning north past the west coast of Florida and hitting Panama City as a category 2 or 3 hurricane. The Euro is still unenthusiastic about this, but that model tends to be far more conservative with MDR development, until a closed circulation gets going. HWRF also shows this becoming a strong hurricane, but that model is too agressive in long-range intensity forecasts for my liking. Ryan1000 23:41, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 40/70. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:23, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, seems the Euro is becoming right on this one. It's now down to 30/50. I still hope that we may see Gert from this in the long run though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:29, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 99L still has time to organize itself, but it would be nice to see a nice fish hurricane and not see a struggling tropical storm with every tropical wave that emerges off the coast of Africa. Owen 18:55, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Time's running out for this one. It's down to 20/50. Maybe this won't develop at all.... Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:43, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

And suddenly this flopped. Now down to 10/30. I feel that this won't even become a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:16, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well it's now down to 0/20. What an invest though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:02, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * What a flop tbh. This looked like it would develop earlier but I guess environmental conditions didn't really favor it. Maybe it could still have a chance at Gert in the very long run but I'm not sure about that happening. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:40, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS has completely dropped this storm, but the Euro has now been taking a more agressive approach to 99L once it reaches the eastern seaboard of the U.S. However, unless conditions improve there, this won't be anything more than a TS when it reaches there by next week, if that. Ryan1000 03:00, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now 0/30. This invest can really test someone's patience. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:06, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/50. Can 99L be a TD? Stay tuned. (Well to be honest I hope this eventually becomes Gert.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * This thing has persisted for quite a bit. Gert now looks likely by early next week. Glad it was not a complete flop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:49, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:16, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/40. This invest keeps on fluctuating. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:28, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/50. Please form now 99L... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:07, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

40/60. Expected to stay in the open Atlantic if it forms. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:00, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * This invest kinda reminds me of how Hermine from last year formed. Both this and Hermine are/were being tracked for more than a week. Hoping this invest finally gets its act together to become Gert although it might not be stronger than a TS due to lingering dry air. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:39, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:53, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * It has been organizing as of late and conditions are conducive for development. I do hope Gert comes from this, although I would like it to be stronger than a TS because I am kind of sick of them after the spree of TSs that occurred before Franklin. At least we're not seeing a re-2011 though (that season began with 8 TSs!) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:04, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * You're right, Steve. This is reminiscent of Hermine from last year. (Fun Fact: Hermine was also 99L before it formed!) Anyway, I hope this becomes Gert in 5 days. Lowkey hoping for it to become a hurricane though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:09, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * It could become Gert much sooner than that. Outlook is 80/80 and expect a TD by tonight or tomorrow. This should turn away from the U.S. and go in between the East Coast and Bermuda. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:16, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on Gert, please form and become a hurricane, but stay away from land! Don't know why, but because this storm is gonna be called Gert, I can't stop thinking about this guy here. Nah, I predict Gert will form within about 5 hours from now, SteazySteve. You can refer to me as Henriette. 169.51.72.247 00:33, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Now a TD, and expected to reach 65 mph. It seems to have plenty of hurricane potential but it will depend on how the dry air affects it. Otherwise it's in a low shear and warm water environment. C'mon future-Gert, please become a hurricane! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:30, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Not a storm yet, but it looks like Gert has arrived. Little trivia, if Gert somehow does manage to become a hurricane, it will be the first hurricane named Gert since 1999. That incarnation of Gert became a Category 4. I don't think this Gert will make it that far.... Leeboy100 Hello! 04:11, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Finally it became a TD. I hope this becomes Hurricane Gert in the long run (although the forecast only says it will peak as a high-end tropical storm). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pulling for future Gert to become the second hurricane of the season as well. But finally, after all this tracking - 99L forms. Owen 06:02, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This reminds me so much of 99L/Hermine of last year. #1: The resistance of becoming a tropical cyclone for two weeks. #2: Forming near the U.S. #3. Forecast to become a high-end tropical storm at first. Anyway, this will most likely be Gert. At the moment, this is heading WNW at 14 mph. This means that Gert will be edging ever so closely to the U.S. if this continues to happen. I don't think that this storm will directly impact the U.S., but the rip currents are something to watch for. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:19, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gert
AL, 08, 2017081318,, BEST, 0, 277N, 716W, 35, 1011, TS

7-1-0. Hello, Gert. Awaiting the upgrade in 5pm NHC advisory. Owen 19:54, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now finally Gert after waiting for so long. It is going to stay a TS until it becomes Post-Tropical. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:30, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally, it becomes Gert! It has an outside chance of becoming a weak C1 hurricane. Current intensity is 35 knots (40 mph)/1011 mbars. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:53, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally it became Gert. Kinda happy that this is going to be a fishspinner, but I hope this storm becomes a hurricane in the open waters of the Atlantic. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:20, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Greetings, Gert. Nice to see you. I'm really hoping Gert does manage to become a hurricane. Leeboy100 Hello! 22:23, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gert has strengthened to 45/1009. NHC forecasts Gert to now become the second hurricane of the season in 48-72 hours. Owen 02:40, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now Gert is 60 mph/1002 mbars. A hurricane is likely by tomorrow. The discussion says that HWRF forecasts a major hurricane, if only it could go that far! (Since it's a fishspinner we can root for this however we like) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:37, August 14, 2017 (UTC)

I know it won't happen, but since it's a fishspinner, I'm gonna root for Gert to explode and become a Category 5. In all seriousness, an eye is becoming clearly visible on the visible satellite. It likely will be a hurricane tomorrow, if not later tonight. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:00, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gert now just below hurricane status. I think she is going to reach hurricane status tonight. NHC now forecasts Gert to peak at around 90 mph, while the HWRF is still bullish on bringing this to a major hurricane. If that verified, I think that could make up for how long we had to wait to finally get a tropical cyclone out of 99L. Owen 21:08, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gert now has a shot to be a high-end C2 hurricane. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 21:11, August 14, 2017 (UTC)

Don't know if it's just a glitch by The Weather Channel, but they keep saying the next advisory will be at 11 PM EDT, completely skipping the 8 o'clock advisory. Is this just a glitch by TWC, or is the 8 PM advisory just being skipped? Leeboy100 Hello! 23:28, August 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * No, it's not a glitch @Leeboy100. Gert is a nonaffecting tropical storm, therefore no warnings or watches have been issued, and thus we get advisories every 6 hours. (5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm). Owen 00:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Oh, yeah. That's right. I've gotten so used to the 3-hour advisories since the storms that have been the most memorable in recent years have affected land. My bad. Leeboy100 Hurricane Dean, 2007-2017 00:38, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * AL, 08, 2017081500,, BEST, 0, 308N, 723W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1013, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, but, BUT... I actually won't be surprised if the 11pm advisory keeps Gert as a strong TS instead of going ahead with the upgrade to hurricane status. Storm's looking a wee bit more sickly than it did a few hours ago. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:14, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * It should be a hurricane any moment now. 70 mph/992 mbar is the current intensity. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:51, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Gert
Huh, looks like NHC did confirm the upgrade. Forecast peak intensity raised to 90 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:45, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * 2nd hurricane overall of the season, and might be about to become our first major? Owen 02:49, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Now official, we now have our second hurricane of the season. Leeboy100 Hurricane Dean, 2007-2017 03:01, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * The second hurricane of the season, Gert may be a Category 2 hurricane. Intensity is at 75 mph/986 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:38, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with Dylan, Gert actually looked a bit better when it was a tropical storm earlier, the northern part of the storm seems to have eroded lately. Regardless, it could pick up some intensity as it moves faster out to sea, since a faster speed means shear might get lower on it, but SST's will gradually decrease too, so Gert shouldn't get too strong. Ryan1000 05:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory raises Gert to 80 mph/981 mbars and it is forecast to reach 90 mph. Shear should lessen compared to last night, so it would give this storm more room to strengthen during the next couple of days. Glad to see it become another hurricane and I won't be surprised if Gert can manage C2 intensity. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:47, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now the latest advisory raises the intensity to 85 mph/979 mbar, becoming the strongest storm of the season so far. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:35, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 90 miles per hour now with a pressure of 975 millibars. This might have a small chance to become a weak Category two! After this, Gert will pass just north, if not, make landfall on the UK as an extra-tropical storm Monday. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:09, August 16, 2017 (UTC) PS: The next NHC advisory comes out in two hours.
 * ATCF says we have a Cat 2!! AL, 08, 2017081618,, BEST, 0, 382N, 641W, 85, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:08, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Sigh Bad news everyone, I'm hearing from multiple sources that Gert has claimed a victim. A swimmer was killed by Gert in North Carolina. I'm not hearing exactly what happened though, either the swimmer was pulled out to sea by a rip current or drowned by a big wave. Meanwhile, Gert still remains the same, winds of 90 mph, pressure of 975, and the next advisory comes out in about an hour. Leeboy100 Hurricane Dean, 2007-2017 19:56, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Update: That fatality has been confirmed, and it's sadder than I thought. What happened was a swimmer ended up getting caught in a rip current. Then, a man, 63 years old, came to his rescue. The other swimmer was able to escape, but unfortunately, the man who came to his rescue was swept out to sea, and found dead. It's always sad when something like this happens, when someone comes to the rescue of another person, and ends up getting killed in the process. A very tragic event, and my thoughts go out to the family and friends of the victim. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 20:11, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * I am sorry to hear this tragic news in relation to Gert. My condolences go out to that victim and his family. :( Anyway, Gert is officially a C2 by NHC. It may be able to squeeze in a tiny bit more intensity before unfavorable conditions begin a rapid weakening phase tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:44, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * He sacrificed his life to save his/her life. Sorry to hear this but RIP. Anyway, the intensity is at 100 mph/970 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:49, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * ATCF says Gert is now at 90 kts/967 mbar now. Looks like Gert will peak right where it was originally forecast to (105 mph). Owen 01:18, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * And the NHC followed suit. 90 kn/967 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:28, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * And Gert is now weakening. It's down to 85 kn/968 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Weakening further, 70 kn/ 975 mbar, now a Category 1. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 15:06, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert
Now post-tropical. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:48, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Goodbye Gert, it was fun tracking you. As one door closes, another one opens. Or in this case, when one storm dies, another one forms. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 21:08, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sigh I don't believe it. Unfortunately another one just drowned due to rip currents of the hurricane again. The death toll is now at 2. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:53, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * This storm dissipated quite rapidly but was pretty nice to track. However, these deaths were unfortunate. I'd have to say the one that died saving another person was a hero. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
We have ourselves another area to watch. I think the race to become Franklin is definitely on, with an edge for 99L currently. This newly invested area is something models have been picking up on in the Caribbean and Bay of Campeche and could be a potent threat considering conditions have been becoming much more favorable in the Caribbean. Owen 18:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at 10/20 on the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 20/40. This may become Gert. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:48, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be something like Harvey (2011) or Earl from last year. I'm calling it, this will be Gert. It better not be anything destructive. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:55, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/50. This has a shot of becoming Gert. Hi!-68.106.0.77 06:08, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks like it'll be a BoC spinup, but the global models are making this stronger than a mere TS, and this might even become a minimal hurricane in the GoM down the road. Ryan1000 13:07, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * It could be that, but I think that it could also be a re-Harvey or Earl and develop before the Yucatan landfall. I don't think this one will end up as stronger than a minimal hurricane (C1 at most). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:18, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 30/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:23, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 40/60 per latest NHC release. This may become a TD first before 99L above. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:29, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm beginning to think this one is winning the race to become Franklin. Owen 18:55, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 50/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:00, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * With this now higher than 99L (which is down to 30/50), it's entirely possible this one might become Franklin and 99L will become Gert, or not develop at all before unfavorable conditions take hold in the middle of next week for 99L. Ryan1000 00:03, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now to 60/80. Hi!-68.106.0.77 06:32, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Increased to 80/90. Here comes TD 7 (Franklin). Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:24, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven
According to ATCF, we now have Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven. There has been 2 calls in the last hour between Mexico's meteorogical service and the NHC to begin coordinating tropical storm warnings. Advisories will begin at 5 pm accordingly and also worth noting that pressures are starting to fall in the area. I think Franklin will be here very soon. Owen 20:04, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin
It's official. 90L has defeated 99L to the race to become Franklin. Since we have our 6th named storm now, it's worth noting that 4 other years had 6 named storms at this point: 1936, 1959, 2005 and 2012. All four of those years were active. Owen 02:59, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is currently not forecast to go above TS strength as it is expected to move across the Yucatan and into mainland Mexico, and if it doesn't become a hurricane, then we'll have the first 6 named storms this year not become hurricanes. Interestingly enough, the last time this list was used (in 2011) also had the first 6 (eventually 8) named storms not become hurricanes as well. However, the season is still ramping up, and we could see stronger, longer-lasting storms later on this year. Ryan1000 04:28, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * 45 mph, 1005 mb. Hurricane watch issued from Chetumal to Punta Allen in Mexico. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:56, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 50 mph/1004 mbar. Franklin is pulling together very quickly. At this rate, Franklin could be a hurricane before landfall. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:50, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60 mph/999 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 7, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory out, and nothing has changed. Well, almost. It's now moving West-Northwest at 13, instead of 14, so that's something. Leeboy100 Hello! 17:55, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin looks like he's developing an eye. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sudden jump to hurricane strength before landfall. This could be a re-Earl, unfortunately. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:22, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Didn't really expect this to be Franklin due to the other system out in the open Atlantic looking better when this was just an eastern Caribbean wave. I hope to see the season's first hurricane as long as it does not be a re-Earl, Karl or even Stan. We could really use a hurricane right now, as I am getting sick of all the TS's. Remember how 2011 had 8 TS's to start the season? If this does not be a hurricane, we have a re-2011 on our hands. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:45, August 7, 2017 (UTC)

This may not become a hurricane before landfall, but the NHC is now almost certain that Franklin will be a hurricane after it emerged back into the Gulf. Forecast takes it up to hurricane strength after that point. It's very likely that we will have Hurricane Franklin. Which would be the first time the name 'Franklin' would be used for a hurricane. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:03, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is now moving due northwest instead of west-northwest, so it may have much more time over the open waters of the GoM than previously anticipated. I didn't expect Franklin's organization and track to change as fast as it did today, and if Franklin does what Karl did in 2010 and keeps its organization as it crosses the Yucatan, then it could become a very powerful storm in the GoM. Ryan1000 21:24, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is still 60 mph but the pressure is 995 mbar, and it's about to make landfall soon. Northerly shear will increase a bit when it moves in the BOC which could be enough to prevent it from RIing. I think, at most, it could reach C2 intensity before the mainland Mexico landfall. A major might even be possible if organization remains completely intact through the crossing. ~  <font face="Impact"> Steve     Talk Page  My Edits  📧   02:56, August 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh no, this is going to be bad for Veracruz. It's currently 325 miles east-northwest of Veracruz. It's getting close to be making landfall at the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for most of the Yucatan Peninsula, Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Mexico (Chetumal to Campeche), and Hurricane Watches are in effect for some of the mainland Mexico. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:51, August 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * It made landfall already on the Yucatan Peninsula and it's currently moving over it. The intensity is down to 45 mph/999 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:30, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * This can be a minimal C1 or a strong 70 mph tropical storm. For now, NHC expects this to remain at tropical storm intensity. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:05, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Despite Franklin's winds decreasing, it has maintained its organization as it crossed the Yucatan; however NHC now expects some moderate shear to exist north of the storm after it emerges over water again, which should inhibit any significant strengthening in the BoC from Franklin. Ryan1000 21:44, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * And now a hurricane warning is in effect for Veracruz. NHC now expects Franklin to become a hurricane before landfall. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:50, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh no, this is going to be bad for Veracruz. It is currently  <span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:"HelveticaNeue",Helvetica,"NimbusSansL",Arial,"LiberationSans",sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;">about 325 miles (525 km) east-northwest of V eracruz. It will be the first hurricane of the season once it's a Category 1 hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:00, August 9, 2017 (UTC) P.S. Be prepared  Veracruz!


 * Franklin now 60 mph/994 mbar. He's headed toward taking the title as first hurricane of the season. I will say, however, he reminds me an awful lot like Karl. Owen 07:11, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 65 mph, 994 mb. Can become 80 mph before landfall. I hope this won't be a repeat of Karl '10 and Earl '16, or even Ingrid '13, Alex '10, Stan '05 and Roxanne '95. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I had the feeling it was going to keep its organization crossing the Yucatan, but it probably doesn't have enough time to RI as fast as Karl did in September 2010. Still, I'd be surprised if Franklin doesn't become a hurricane for the first time later today. Ryan1000 09:12, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 60 kts/987 mbar now, officially displaces Arlene as the strongest storm of the season so far by pressure. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:54, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70 mph, 985 mbar. Franklin is almost certain to become a hurricane in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:46, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Franklin is being extremely stubborn! Franklin is now at 70 mph/984 mbar. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:21, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 18z ATCF is calling Franklin a hurricane!!! AL, 07, 2017080918,, BEST, 0, 201N, 944W, 65, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FRANKLIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, One this is confirmed by the NHC, we'll officially have not only the first hurricane of the 2017 AHS, but the first-ever Hurricane Franklin. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:53, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

I spy with my little eye, a little eye trying to form. I don't know how Franklin is still just a tropical storm, though. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:06, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Kinda shocked that it is still a tropical storm. Ugh, Franklin gives me agony; why is he still 70 mph? Anyway, NHC still expects Franklin to become a hurricane before landfall. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:25, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Franklin
The aforementioned ATCF intensity has been confirmed by the NHC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:43, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Upgraded. History has now been made, the first ever Hurricane Franklin. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Glad to see Franklin become a hurricane, for the first time on record! :D Hopefully, Veracruz and surrounding areas don't receive much destruction. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:47, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 984 mb. Finally reached the 75 mph mark. Expected to hit Veracruz as an 85 mph C1. (Sidenote: I just noticed that Franklin's track is similar to Diana (1990). I hope Franklin won't be as bad as that hurricane.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:51, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

I do see an eye trying to pop out on the visible satellite imagery, this was upgraded to a hurricane just in time. To be honest, Franklin's structure kind of reminds me of Hermine last year, except going the opposite direction. I'm hoping that this isn't a re-Stan or re-Earl, because it's going to affect the exact same areas. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Diana was a huge hurricane when she hit Mexico, much bigger than Franklin, and some northernly shear should keep Franklin from intensifying too much before landfall north of Veracruz tonight. Still, even if he doesn't get past category 1 intensity, flooding and mudslides will be a threat to Mexico, as we saw from the high death toll of Earl last year. Ryan1000 21:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Gaining steam, unfortunately. Winds now up to 85 mph. This is getting very scary, it's actually stronger than Stan was when it made landfall. I really hope it doesn't intensify any further. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's kinda took the same path as 1990's Diana. Diana got retired due to the impacts that it made. Stan, which is a deadly storm got retired too. Other storms that took nearly similar path as Franklin avoided retirement. Earl is kinda deadly (106 deaths) but it's not retired. Karl is the costliest storm to strike Veracruz (<span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:"HelveticaNeue",Helvetica,"NimbusSansL",Arial,"LiberationSans",sans-serif;font-size:14.4px;font-weight:normal;">$5.6 billion) but avoided retirement. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:54, August 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * And Franklin has made landfall as a C1. I hope the impacts aren't that severe. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:26, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin (2nd time)
Down to a TS over Mexico, should die later today. Ryan1000 10:08, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin
RIP, gone. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:38, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

I really hope the impacts aren't too severe. Goodbye Franklin. Leeboy100 Hello! 18:47, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

It appears that Franklin has caused no deaths as of now (according to Wikipedia). Damage could have been a bit extensive though, because seeing from this, plenty of losses were reported in eastern Mexico. Homes were damaged, banana plantations were impacted and other impacts occurred. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:44, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Bahamas
And NHC spots a new AOI. Not expected to form though; it's currently at 10/10. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:26, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * I mean, there might still be a tiny chance it could form (remember Emily, and also to a more surprising extent, Jose 2011?). This thing looks like a random AOI that won't develop for now, but we can't rule out sudden development. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:52, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * You are right, Steve. However 99L can eat this up (it's relatively close to 99L's expected path). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:00, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Went off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:45, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Off Africa
Another wave is emerging off of Africa, this is at 0/20 for now, but both of the global models are already picking up on this. GFS makes this a formidable hurricane moving off of or making landfall on the U.S. east coast, while the Euro takes this farther south, passing through the straits of Florida and into the GoM as a strong hurricane. It may be 10 days out, but if both of them agree on this becoming something serious, this may be a big storm to watch out for in the long run. Ryan1000 10:04, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This will probably be the first major of the season. This one will be one to watch as it comes near the U.S. We don't need a re-Irene or a Floyd. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:07, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Future Harvey will be one to watch. It would actually be interesting if Gert became a hurricane and future Harvey did as well. There's been two Hurricane Harvey's - one being a C1 and the other being a C4. Maybe something in between for this incarnation if conditions permit. Owen 19:59, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:27, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks a bit concerning in the long run. The models that Ryan mentioned look scary and we should stay tuned on how future-Harvey might pan out. This could have a pretty likely chance at being this season's first major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:56, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now this AOI is a matter of concern. The Euro takes this to the Antilles and to Florida (and eventually to GoM), while the GFS takes this to the eastern seaboard of the U.S., but will eventually make landfall in Nova Scotia. I want future Harvey to become a major, but I hope this won't become a re-Irene/Floyd, or even a re-Igor/Juan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:18, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
It's a possibility that the Atlantic could end up with four hurricanes in a row. Franklin became a hurricane, Gert is likely to become one, and the Euro and its ensembles indicate that 91L and the wave after it (future Harvey, then Irma?) could become hurricanes. Atlantic should jump above average soon in ACE. Last time that happened was in 2012 (Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine) which was later in the season which makes it all the more interesting. Owen 14:40, August 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is going to get pretty interesting...what if the Atlantic was aware that I was sick of the continuous TSs before Franklin? 😝 This basin is going to explode looks like. Here comes another active season. This AOI is up to 20/60 BTW and Harvey could be a big one. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:41, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * The two global models have backed off on this in their latest runs, although it's been upped 30/60, but they're getting more hyped on the wave behind it. Either way, the Atlantic is definitely going to be heating up in the next week or two. Ryan1000 05:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Conditions will become less favorable once it moves to the Caribbean Sea. It has 2 days before Friday to become something. I personally want Harvey to come from the 0/20 wave over Africa because that one has plenty of room to become something significant (but hopefully not destructive). This wave and the one behind it will only be TSs at most, that is, if they develop. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:51, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now this also became 30/40. Whoever wins this race will be TD 9 — not sure if Harvey though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:42, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 40/50. NHC no longer mentions any unfavorable conditions though. If this can survive any potentially unfavorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, a big threat may loom. :/ Also, I can see every one of these AOIs potentially developing into named storms. This one can become as strong as a hurricane (depending on the eastern Caribbean environment), the wave behind it might only be a TS due to unfavorable conditions north of the Lessers and the one that just moved off Africa has the biggest chance at being the season's first major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:50, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/60. It has a chance to become Harvey once it's a TS. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:42, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 60/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:31, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80/90, Harvey should be coming from this AOI. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:18, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
NHC says they will start issuing advisories on this storm, potential tropical cyclone nine, at 11AM EDT. Ryan1000 14:07, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hello Nine. It will be likely to be a TS and a hurricane. I won't be surprised if this gets stronger. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Current NHC forecast makes it a cat 1 landfall in Belize, in part due to it's expected rapid movement through the Caribbean, but if it can slow down it might have more time to get stronger than cat 1 intensity, which Earl of last year and Franklin a week ago couldn't do. Ryan1000 15:39, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * And (Steve) Harvey is almost here. (Or maybe Irma, if the other invest miraculously forms faster than this one; highly unlikely though.) This storm reminds me of Ernesto in 2012. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:41, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey
Now a TS! Winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1004 mbar. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:50, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

(Edit conflict) Officially upgraded! I said greetings to Gert, so now I'll say hello to Harvey. Unfortunately it's heading towards Mexico, similar to where Franklin did. This could be trouble. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 20:55, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

This is somewhat off-topic, but a meteorologist at The Weather Channel made a slip-up while announcing the formation of Harvey, that I found amusing. "We have a brand new Tropical Storm Harvey, it's name............. is Harvey, in case you didn't hear me the first time." I don't think it was really necessary to post on here, but it's just something I found amusing that I wanted to share. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 22:14, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's no longer forecast to become a hurricane, as it's expected to pass closer to Honduras before eventually hitting Belize, and conditions are somewhat unfavorable in it's path, both of the global models see Harvey entraining dry air and weakening, or even dissipating, in the central Caribbean. Ryan1000 22:32, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the Windward Islands. Sorry to say but I doubt this would become a hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:49, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this survives the shear, this actually has a small chance of becoming a hurricane when it enters favorable conditions in the western Caribbean. But that will depend on how much land it encounters when there. There's a slight chance it could move a bit north of Honduras instead of landfalling there, and that would make hurricane status more likely. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:55, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Neither of the global models or the HWRF seem to make Harvey particularly strong as it moves through the Caribbean due to shear coming from the ULL that's also expected to stop 92L from developing, and some dry air from South America being entrained into Harvey's circulation. However, the GFS and HWRF do make Harvey somewhat stronger, if not possibly exploding, over the favorable conditions in the BoC after it crosses the Yucatan. In fact, the GFS expects steering currents to be weak by that time and Harvey could get fairly strong there if it doesn't immediately move towards a second landfall in mainland Mexico after striking northern Honduras and Belize. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey is still the same (40 mph/1005 mbar). It will struggle until Sunday (which is also my birthday BTW :D) and after that time, it could really intensify. If it survives the shear and dry air well, a hurricane seems likely when it is near Belize and the Yucatan. I'm a bit unsure if this will actually survive to the BOC intact due to all the land in its way. If it goes a bit more southern than the forecast, this could landfall in Honduras or even northern Nicaragua which, along with the Yucatan, will prevent it from reaching the BOC. The cut-off low in the Gulf of Mexico mentioned in the discussion could prevent it from going that much south though. If the track shifts more northern I could see a stronger version of Franklin or even a re-Karl in the BOC being possible. Right now, Harvey reminds me of Ernesto ('12) except it likely won't reach C2 status before the Yucatan. This might be like a hybrid of Ernesto and Karl ('10) if it does reach the BOC intact and explode. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * A headlong landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua and not reaching the BoC at all is looking less likely at this point. Harvey's latest NHC forecast track is showing what the GFS was showing before, steering currents are expected to weaken drastically when it crosses the Yucatan, and the shear currently over Harvey is expected to weaken significantly by that time as well. In their forecast discussion, NHC even states the possibility of Harvey reaching (or very nearing) hurricane intensity before it hits the Yucatan. The dissipation in the open Caribbean by the Euro is in part forecast due to Harvey's rapid forward speed of 21 mph, but if Harvey can hold together for a few more days at that speed, it'll slow down and be over less shear in the area by the Yucatan and BoC. In fact, the 00Z GFS turns Harvey as far north as the Texas/Mexico border and becoming a fairly strong hurricane in the GoM. Ryan1000 10:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey has weakened to 35 kt/1007 mbar. Harvey could be sheared apart before getting to the Yucatan. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 16:38, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * The NHC notes that windspeed could be generous in the discussion. This could degenerate back to a wave if it becomes even more disorganized. I would give a 50/50 chance of it surviving to Sunday night intact. In fact, that chance might be even lower if I'm overestimating Harvey. After it goes through that shear, a hurricane could occur right before the Yucatan landfall. I'm a bit concerned for Mexico and Belize and what impacts Harvey could do there in the long run (especially even further out when it could move onshore mainland Mexico from the Gulf or BOC). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:33, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey
(Un)fortunately, shear has not been kind to Harvey these past few days. Even though the system will be entering a more favorable environment within the next day per the NHC, I will not be surprised if Harvey is already a tropical wave. Winds have decreased to 30 knots (35 mph), with the pressure remaining at 1007 mbar (hPa). As a matter of fact, given how fast the now-depression is moving to the west, it may not even take full advantage of the conditions ahead of it. For those who are curious, no watches or warnings have been issued for Mexico or Central America yet because it is plausible that Harvey may simply degenerate into a tropical wave, as I acknowledged earlier. At most, I am expecting Harvey to attain winds of 50 knots (60 mph), with a pressure of ~999 mbar (hPa). Steve, in order for Harvey to even reach the Yucatán Peninsula coastline, it will have to face 30 to 50 knots of wind shear. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:11, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Harvey
lol.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:43, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well that was a flop. Can't say I was entirely surprised though, Harvey was moving so fast through the Caribbean that it wasn't entirely unexpected it could open into a wave, Chantal '13 did that too. It still could regenerate later on though, but it won't get strong if it does at this point. Ryan1000 03:09, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'd say it failed to last longer than the forecast. Hopefully Harvey will be used for a much stronger and long-lasting storm. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:12, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh well... but as Ryan says, I wouldn't be surprised if it came back next week, albeit as a weak system. Kiewii 04:00, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's on the TWO now. It's at 30/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:36, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Convection appears to be refiring. NHC gives it 50/60, and recon is scheduled to investigate. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:43, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 50/70. I hope it regenerates somehow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:15, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * It probably will due to a favorable environment in the western Caribbean. The degeneration of Harvey did not really surprise me. That shear was just a bit too powerful for a weak tropical storm to handle, and it's quick forward speed didn't help either. I could see a stronger TS occurring right before the Yucatan landfall if it regenerates by tomorrow and takes advantage of the more favorable environment . P.S. Wish me a happy birthday. :D ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:17, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80. Not sure if this regenerates. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:11, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Most models show this making landfall as a moderate TS to strong C1 somewhere between Tampico and Corpus Christi by next week. This spells trouble for both Eastern Mexico and Texas. Still 50/80, by the way. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:18, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70/90 and will likely regenerate by tonight or at latest, tomorrow before it moves onshore onto the Yucatan. Even if it doesn't redevelop before the landfall, the Gulf of Mexico is conducive for regeneration and/or strengthening. I hope the people in Eastern Mexico/southern Texas prepare for this... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:16, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey is currently passing over the Yucatán Peninsula. The 00z ECMWF shows it slamming into Corpus Christi, doing a loop and whacking Galveston before dissipating over Arkansas. HWRF and its counterpart HWRF-P aren't much better, showing high-end C2 landfalls at Corpus Christi and Tampico respectively. HMON shows similar intensity but brings it into the sparsely-populated Texas-Tamaulipas border. Even the 06z GFS has enthusiastically jumped on the bandwagon and now shows a major hitting Texas. If Harvey manages to pull itself together this quickly, either Texas or Tamaulipas is in for deep trouble. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:39, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 90/near 100. An interesting excerpt from the TWO: "Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend." Never before do I think I have seen the NHC mention the possibility of a system bringing hurricane impacts to an area before the system in question even (re-)formed as a tropical cyclone. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:20, August 22, 2017 (UTC)

Now 100/100. Basically almost guaranteed to reform. But it's not being upgraded because it doesn't have a closed center yet. And they're saying it will likely be a hurricane. Okay, then. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 21:24, August 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Um, I'm seeing it as 90/100. This might redevelop to a TD or TS as soon as tonight. A hurricane is looking possible and those in the path (from northeastern Mexico to southwestern Louisiana) should prepare themselves. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:10, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey pretty likely to redevelop. I hope it attains hurricane status before its landfall. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:56, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I mean... it would be cool to see the first Hurricane Harvey since 1993... but is this really the kind of situation where we want a storm to become a hurricane? When it's threatening land? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:33, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed. 68, I wouldn't wish for a hurricane in this situation. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:45, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Ex-Harvey seems to be taking a northward turn and there's a good chance it could become a hurricane before hitting the Texas coast, likely near Corpus Christi, because it will slow down as it approaches land so it has more time to intensify, and prolonged rains will cause flood threats in Texas, as well as surrounding areas in northeastern Mexico and southwestern Louisiana. Let's just hope Harvey (when it comes back) doesn't get too strong before its upcoming Texas landfall. Ryan1000 02:16, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Advisories will likely be initiated at 10 p.m. CDT, two hours from now. The TWO mentions a possibility of a hurricane watch being issued. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:52, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Redevelopment extremely likely at this moment with a chance of hurricane status. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey (2nd time)
And NHC will issue advisories again at 10 PM CDT. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:45, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Per latest advisory, a lot of watches were issued. A storm surge watch is in effect for Port Mansfield to High Island a hurricane watch for north of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Boca De Catan in Mexico to Port Mansfield in Texas, and north of San Luis Pass to High Island. This is becoming a significant weather event for Texas and northeast Mexico, but for now Harvey is forecast to peak at 70 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:54, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks like a major flooding threat to Texas, due to the forecast stalling it over southeastern Texas. I hope it is not too destructive there. A hurricane could be really possible before landfall so they must prepare themselves. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:27, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is taking a similar path to Bret of 1999, combined with Allison. The way it is moving northward towards Texas is much like Bret, and the stalling over Texas is much like Allison. This is not looking good, and if this is true, we could be looking at the worst hurricane in Texas since Ike. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:47, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey won't get anywhere near as strong as Bret did in 1999 (cat 1 is probably as far as it'll go), but it's larger size and slower movement could mean a lot of flooding in southeastern Texas, even though the worst of Harvey should remain west of the Houston area. Despite that, this isn't something to be taken lightly and it could be damaging for the region this weekend. Ryan1000 23:24, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hello Harvey (again). It isn't forecasted to be a hurricane yet... but, hurricane watches are in effect just in case Harvey intensifies into a hurricane. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 23:31, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

I'm hearing that some areas in Texas may see up to 3 feet of rain from Harvey. New Orleans could also see heavy rain, not Katrina-like (obviously), but this is looking like a really bad situation may be unfolding. Leeboy100 Andrew, 25 (1992-2017) 02:06, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * The latest U.S. rainfall forecast sees Texas getting drenched from Harvey. We may see even 15 inches of rainfall there. This is slowly becoming a big threat for TX, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:19, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey is still not a TS yet as of the latest advisory. Maybe the struggle has something to do with the depression's relatively disorganized structure. Texas really needs to prepare for a major flood event which could potentially unfold. This gives me a reminder of Allison from 2001 and I really hope Harvey is not that bad. A hurricane still looks very possible; the Hurricane Center is now forecasting one. But we should not wish for a hurricane, for obvious reasons. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:11, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * <p style="font-weight:normal;">

Tropical Storm Harvey (2nd time)
Back up to TS status. 40 mph/1002. Pressure is pretty low in correlation with the winds. At some point I think the winds will catch up and over the warm waters of the Gulf, Harvey has the potential to pull some surprises and I think that if he goes through RI, you absolutely cannot rule out this thing becoming our first major and potentially the first major hurricane landfall in the U.S. since Wilma, which is what the HWRF has been depicting. I have a bad feeling. Owen 04:52, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Forecast shows now a hurricane as it hits Texas. This is going to be bad for them. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 05:29, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * The landfall location has also shifted farther south, towards the Corpus Christi area (which hasn't seen a direct hit from a hurricane since category 3 Celia of 1970), but coastal impacts probably won't be as bad as inland flooding from Harvey, since it's winds won't be as high as the rain it'll bring. Ryan1000 06:07, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * The advisory from 5AM EDT (4AM CDT) has knocked Harvey's pressure down to 995 mbars, but Harvey's organization has dramatically improved over the past few hours and NHC notes that the 45 mph windspeed estimate is likely conservative; recon is currently en route to investigate Harvey. The NHC forecast now expects an 85 mph hurricane, with hurricane warnings now in effect for Texas, and the track forecast now takes Harvey making landfall, but after landfall he's expected to reverse direction and move back over the GOM as the ridge and steering currents collapse, meaning Harvey could be the first storm since Allison to make landfall in Texas and move back over the GOM again. To make matters worse, the NHC's SHIPS model indicates a staggering 45% chance that Harvey could undergo rapid intensification before landfall. You're right Owen, Harvey is rapidly pulling itself together and it could become a hurricane as soon as tonight at this rate, and possibly a cat 2 or even 3 before making landfall in Texas on Saturday. But anything past cat 3 is probably too far, though I am impressed Harvey managed to get itself together this fast. Ryan1000 10:27, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * God damn, 8 am advisory has him even higher at 65/986. We know what Ike did as a Cat 2, Harvey could be worse for Texas if stronger on top of the stalling and flooding. Today should be the last day to prepare in Texas and if told to evacuate hopefully they do do it, fill up on gas, get their prescriptions filled if need be and have many days of extra food and water. Harvey is outperforming ALL of the models at this stage. It's been a long time since we saw a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone in the GOM headed for the states. Side note, GFS now brings Harvey down to 940 mbar at landfall! That would be catastrophic, and he'd be joining Don as a retirement contender. I'm seeing a really bad situation building for Texas here if these trends continue. Owen 12:14, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * 15 milibar pressure drop in only 6 hours? Woah! If that keeps up, Harvey will be at 941 mbars in the next 18 hours, which would be roughly a category 4 storm. Looks like this might have a chance to become as strong as Bret '99 after all. Owen, I don't think Don will be retired just because the U.S. president has his name, we saw how Bill was used in 1997 while Bill Clinton was our president at the time, and Bill wasn't retired, so Don probably won't either. But Harvey is rapidly looking like it could be a serious contender for retirement due to impact, and he could even end the record 12-year drought the U.S. has had without any major hurricane landfalls at the rate he's going. Corpus Christi also might see their first major hurricane in 47 years if Harvey gets as strong as the GFS is anticipating. Ryan1000 13:16, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

(←) Recon coming in for another center pass. Previous pass was 55-60 knots, 984 mbars. I won't be surprised if Harvey does become our first USA major hurricane landfall since 2005. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:11, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Storm Surge Watches and Warnings are in effect for Texas in <span style="background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;font-size:15.2px;font-variant-ligatures:inherit;font-variant-caps:inherit;">P <span style="background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;font-size:15.2px;font-variant-ligatures:inherit;font-variant-caps:inherit;">ort Mansfield to San Luis Pass . Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the same area. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 14:28, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Speak of the devil, I was right. NHC now forecasts Harvey to be a major hurricane when he makes landfall on the coast. Owen 14:57, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Pain in the ass to my family this storm is. Father and his fiance were supposed to head down to Corpus Christi this weekend to help her mother move to the state of Maine. Looks like this is not going to be happening now. Seems hesitant not to go since booked time off from work but I told him that this is going to be a major event for the city and state and not worth it to go right now. Feel back because she is going to probably have to evacuate away from her home which could very well get damaged. --Whiplash (talk) 15:55, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also it is quite possible this storm could intensify into a Cat 4 and a weak 5 would not be impossible. (Although unlikely at the moment) Not sure seen this kind of RI in a system in the Gulf since Rita in 2005. --Whiplash (talk) 16:15, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't want to induce panic, but it's best to be prepared for the worst and to hope for the best. If anyone is still unaware how incredibly dangerous this situation could possibly be, we could be looking at the storm that dethrones Katrina from the #1 spot of the most costliest hurricanes of all time. The thought of a potential Category 4+ hurricane making landfall along with it potentially dropping Alison-esque rain totals is very hard to process, this could certainly well be possible. If Harvey feeds off the brown ocean effect and maintains a strong intensity inland, it's going to be bad. Owen 16:39, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
This invest is the wave right beind 91L. The wave emerging off of Africa will be future 93L which will correspond to the section below. Like Steve had said down below, I don't have a big feeling of 91L or 92L developing, but 93L could be another story if the 92L and 91L pave the way forward. 92L has the better chance than 91L I think. But again, it would be interesting to see all three of these waves develop and become Harvey, Irma, and Jose. I've always felt Jose would be an ominous name, so if 91L becomes Harvey and 92L becomes Irma, then 93L (wave about to emerge) could be Jose and become our first real Cape Verde hurricane this season. Owen 01:59, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * If you're still confused, this one's at 30/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:41, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 40/50 now like 91L. This might only be a TS at most due to upcoming upper-level winds north of the Lessers. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 70/70. The Atlantic is becoming active again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:45, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow, this organized faster than I thought. I'd be upset if this steals the name Irma before it gets ripped apart by the ULL northwest of Hispaniola early next week, but if that happens there's not much we can do about it. Ryan1000 02:54, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 60/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:02, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * A TD could still be possible, but Irma is pushing it. I see Irma coming from the wave further out in the eastern Atlantic. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:57, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 50/50. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:26, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still hope it briefly becomes a TD... don't want this to go down in history as a pathetic bust. Conditions are still marginally conducive, but upper-level winds are trying to rip this apart. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:10, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, this one flopped. It's now down to 30/40. I doubt it would form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:45, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 20/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:09, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down again to 10/30, but the NHC notes that conditions could become more favorable when it nears the Bahamas. Maybe 92L becoming Irma is possible after all. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:35, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

(←)Like Gert, Invest 92L has a better shot at developing as it moves further north. However, shear is quite high in the Atlantic north of the Caribbean, and depending on where this invest veers, it may not become tropical. Nevertheless, I will not be surprised if Invest 92L is retroactively classified as a tropical cyclone, as the NHC mentioned multiple times that even a slight increase in organization would have prompted tropical cyclogenesis. Also, regarding the infamous "I" curse to which Owen alluded below, I hope it continues this year! If it does not, it will be the first time that three consecutive "I" storms failed to reach hurricane intensity since Isabel '85, Isaac '88, and Iris '89. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:29, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now down to 10/20. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:15, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 10/30. Anything can still happen (like what Emily did earlier in the season), but I am not that optimistic that 10L/Irma will come out of this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:19, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * I can actually see a brief TS occurring near Florida by midweek. Although if it does develop it won't be very strong at all. The "I" curse days are over apparently, unless this fails to develop and a powerful hurricane named "Irma" comes later in the season. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:21, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/40. But still, I doubt it would form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:14, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't cast doubt on this. Conditions are more conducive for it to develop in the next few days (especially compared to the past few days). However, development looks like it'll only be slow. This is up to 20/40 and has a chance to become a depression or Irma sometime this week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:21, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now back to 10/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:29, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * For now, looks like this could be a more western (closer to the east coast) and weaker version of Gert. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:13, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Down to 10/20. Starting to doubt development myself because it's now forecast to merge with a front by early next week. But still hoping for a brief TD. Don't want to see a newly used name wasted. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:30, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 10/30. It's been too long, 92L... form now please :( Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Aoi: New wave over Western Africa
Assuming 91L becomes Harvey, this wave will be Irma. But boy, if this becomes Irma, we could see the "I" curse restart. Models are getting excited with this one. You know the NHC means business when they identify a wave 2 days from emerging. IF conditions permit, especially with the help of a strong Kelvin wave, I'm willing to go as far saying that this future system (Irma?) may become our first major of the season. Owen 00:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at 10/20. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * I predict this is going to be the big one. Also, it's 0/20 and expected to emerge into the ocean tomorrow. Regardless of what name it receives, it could turn out to be a big threat in the very long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:54, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Believe it or not, there's a third area of invest behind the one above. 91L is down to 20/40, and the above one is at 10/20, but a third is coming off the coast and is also at 0/20. I don't believe all 3 of these will form, but we're almost certain to see one or two of them develop by next week or so. Ryan1000 13:40, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm kind of confused on these AOIs, but I assume this is the 30/40 one in the middle (since this one appeared on the TWO later than the one over Africa). I personally prefer the wave over Africa to become Harvey, as these two waves currently out in the open Atlantic will become nothing more than TSs if they develop due to unfavorable conditions they are expected to encounter. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:57, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * No, Steve, the section above this one actually was referring to this wave coming off Africa. I believe Ryan got them confused because 91L actually split off into those two different AOI's. I'll fix it to clear the confusion made.  Owen 01:51, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, right. So this one's still at 0/20. I kinda got confused in the beginning. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:39, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * That's interesting, it seemed that the NHC was tracking a third wave off of Africa, but I didn't think 91L had split into two different systems. Either way, I highly doubt both of them will develop, as conditions aren't favorable enough in their path, if I recall correctly something like this happened the last time this naming list was used in 2011 as well, and neither of them developed. However, the one trailing behind them might become something big, both of the global models make that storm a major hurricane in the long run, but fortunately recurve it before reaching the east coast, and Bermuda, hopefully it stays that way. Ryan1000 05:36, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Currently 0/40. This is becoming exciting, I am highkey hoping that all of them will form and become named though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:44, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * My bad Owen, I got confused due to Ryan posting this wave under another heading that mentioned the same wave, leading me to think that this was the middle AOI. Anyway, this looks likely to be the season's first major. The Atlantic is really exploding it looks like. At this rate, we could match 2010 through 2012's activity and I won't even be surprised if we can surpass that and at least tie 1933. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:56, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:46, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * This has the biggest chance at being Irma and possibly another hurricane. I hope it isn't any major threat in the very long run, although it's a bit too early to tell. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:59, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/30. Probably won't develop. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:53, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * What a shame. Well, it could still develop because it has until the middle of next week before upper-level winds strike. From now until then, conditions will be somewhat conducive for this to at least become a TD. Really hope it is not a name-stealing Irma that is like a Jova-esque fail. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My E dits  📧  04:15, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/20. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:08, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * I highly doubt this will form. Down again to 10/10 as upper-level winds threaten the existence of it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * I was never too excited about this AOI. It still has the potential to develop slightly more over the next few days, but I doubt that it will become a tropical cyclone before conditions become more unfavorable next week. Regarding overall season activity, 2017 received its eighth storm before any other season except 1936, 2005, and 2012, per Phil Klotzbach. If either Invest 92L or this AOI manages a tropical storm before tomorrow, it will be the second-earliest ninth storm formation on record, behind only 2005's Irene. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I have lost every last bit of hope for this AOI. Dry air and wind shear are major problems. Irma should come later, either out of 92L or an even later storm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is down to 0/0. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:18, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * And off the TWO it goes. Tbh, it busted. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:23, August 21, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements. Andros 1337 (talk) 04:34, June 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 10% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 25% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS.  T G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#889">0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Franklin miraculously caused no fatalities in Mexico. There is almost no chance of retirement. The only damage from Franklin was minimal.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#449">5% - Two people drowned from rip currents in the United States, which is very sad. Gert defied all of the forecasts, becoming not a Category 1 hurricane, but a Category 2 hurricane! I thought that Gert wouldn't be any stronger than a strong TS, but I was very wrong. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Opinions
(Retirement colors:  <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) '''

Notes:
 * A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

Retirement predictions and grades begin here:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Gets a lot of grading credit for its impressive and unusual formation in April. If this occurred at a typical time of year, the grade would have been MUCH lower. Stayed out to sea, so no retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#F00">F  - Struck a somewhat unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect); both the deaths and location could up the retirement chance a tad bit. Its unusual location for June saves the storm's grade from being lower than what I gave. Still a fail though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#0F0">20%, <font color="#F80">D+ - Caused plenty of flooding in the Midwest and the Gulf region around Texas/Louisiana as well as 3 deaths (2 direct,1 indirect). Full damage totals aren't out yet as of the time I typed this, but the U.S. has been through MUCH worse tropical storms (like Allison 2001 for example). Chances could go up or down from 20% after I see released damage tolls.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">F-   - Failed to redeem itself after 2011. Call me crazy for giving 25% to a failure, but the usage of the name garnered negative media attention and I'd give a 1/4 chance that this will receive the Isis, Adolph, etc treatment and be retired. The chance could be even higher, but this type of retirement has never occurred in the Atlantic, plus the NHC clarified the name is supposed to have no relationship to Trump. A 50 mph peak prevents this from getting the Z grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily :  <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#086">5%  ,  <font color="#8F0">C+  - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Retirement chances are preliminary; damage totals are currently unknown but so far there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Retirement chances could go up or down pending release of damage totals.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#086">B+  - Got stronger than what initial forecasts called for. The 2 indirect deaths from dangerous surf off the east coast won't convince anyone to request the name being retired.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

50% or more=italics

That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022.
 * Cindy - 10% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 5% - 1.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Owen's Retirement Opinions

 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 20% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists.
 * Emily - 5% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
 * Franklin - 10% - With what data is available, I don't think Franklin is going to be retired. However, if a new report comes out showing significant damage, he could easily get his odds bumped.
 * Gert - 2% - Killed two people and defied the forecasts and became a beautiful C2, but it still won't be enough to be retired.
 * Harvey - TBA - This is getting really, really bad for Texas if he continues his period of RI. We will see what happens upon and after landfall.

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

My turn!


 * Arlene -0% Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.


 * Bret -1% Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.


 * Cindy -20% Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.


 * Don -25% Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons.


 * Emily -1% Minimal impacts.


 * Franklin -2% Still no exact damage numbers, but it doesn't seem too bad. Thankfully, there were no deaths.


 * Gert -1% Defied all forecasts by becoming almost a major hurricane. Unfortunately caused two deaths due to rip currents.


 * Harvey Currently active.

Leeboy100 Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Well, I made mine for the other basins, so why not here? Well, that's it...for now. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Became the first tropical storm to form in April since 2003's Ana, and it also stands alongside Estelle in the EPac as the most commonly used tropical cyclone name in the NHC's AOR track record, with this being the 11th time Arlene was used since 1959. And because Arlene didn't affect land, we're certainly going to see Arlene used again in 2023.
 * Bret - 1% - Caused minor impacts in the southern lesser antilles, with two deaths reported, and it became one of only 3 June storms in the Atlantic to form in this location, along with Ana '79 and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. But it won't be retired.
 * Cindy - 15% - Somewhat damaging storm for the southeastern U.S, but it likely won't be retired. Cindy is also the second most commonly used Atlantic storm name, after Arlene and tied with Frances (9 uses since 1959), but since Frances was retired, and Cindy won't be, we'll see her on the list for the 10th time in 2023.
 * Don - 1% - Wasn't much different than Bret. I also personally doubt he'll be removed from the naming lists just because the U.S. president happens to have the same name; if that does happen, I won't count it as a real retirement (due to impact), just like how I don't count storms like Adolph/Isis/Israel as retired names due to impact, which is what I consider here.
 * Emily - 1% - Caused minor impacts in Florida, but 96,000 dollars in damage is rather low for a U.S. landfalling TS, and it probably won't go.
 * Franklin - 10% - Fortunately, no deaths have been reported thus far from Franklin, unlike how Earl of last year killed over 90 people in Mexico, and damage probably wasn't bad enough to consider retirement.
 * Gert - 1% - It's a shame that two people were killed from Gert due to rip currents, but otherwise it didn't affect land.
 * Harvey - ?? - Still active, but it'll hit Texas in a day or two, possibly as a strong hurricane.

Replacement names
Since Don has a fairly decent chance to go, I've set up some replacement names for him:
 * Dylan
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Drake
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dexter
 * Drew
 * Darren
 * Daryl

Post below which two names you like. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:58, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * I personally don't find Don's removal likely just because he has the same name as the U.S. president, but if he is removed for that reason, I'd like him to be replaced with Dylan. :) Also, add Darren and Daryl to those list of names. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with you Ryan. If this were to replace with Dylan, he will probably freak out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * I was going to make this comment earlier, but I will just post it here. Pardon my tone, but in my opinion, it is unlikely that Don will be retired simply because it happens to have a similar name as an incumbent U.S. president. Previous presidents and other prominent American political figures have had their names added on the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists without objection. For example, the name Georges was left on Atlantic List II despite President George H.W. Bush being head of state at the time and a presidential candidate for that year. Additionally, Bill, Madeline, Hilary, and Alberto were all used in a span of four years in lieu of potential connotations with notable Clinton administration figures (the Commander-in-Chief himself (whose birthday is today, August 19), Secretary Albright, the First Lady, and Vice President Gore, respectively). More recently, Ike and Laura were the chosen replacement names after the 2002 season, even though the former is a nickname for a former American president and the latter was the name of the wife of then president George W. Bush. Also, if we are going to remove Don, why not remove Michael, the (formal) name of our current vice president as well?
 * Nevertheless, here are five additional potential replacement names should Don be removed:


 * 1) Dusty
 * 2) Dominic
 * 3) Draco (Any Harry Potter fans?)
 * 4) Dante
 * 5) Devan


 * Also, I would consider removing Drew from your replacement name list, as some may find that name too similar to Andrew. I hope this helps!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:42, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I find it only likely that Don would be removed along with the name of Hilary. I don't think they would remove one and not remove the other. Nonetheless, my three replacement name candidates would be Dylan, Drew, or Doug. Obviously, it would be cool to see Dylan's name get added to the naming list like my name got added onto the list last year to replace Otto, or Drew being added to the list for Andrew to have a name to associate with. Doug (third preference) is also an option. Yes, the name Douglas is on the EPAC list but that hasn't stopped them from using "Frank" and "Franklin, "Daniel" and "Danny" or even "Juliette" and "Julia". Also, the name "Frederic" had been retired and the name "Fred" had appeared on the naming list years later, so yeah, like Doug, it's a possibility and can't be ruled out. All three of those names are great options. Owen 07:42, August 20, 2017 (UTC)