Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC)

Future start
Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC
 * We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC)

And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC)

I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC)

Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC)

Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC)

1st CSU Forecast
Here it is! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU Forecast
It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

A link is here. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC)

There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

September
Is here, but nothing except the crossovers are active. Ryan1000 17:59, September 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Beware the First Storm of September! -- SkyFury 04:52, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes, yes indeed. But not yet. =) Ryan1000 05:20, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * maybe this year not new AOI at 20% may beocme Michael if conditions are ideal.Allanjeffs 06:01, September 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm not feeling that one. It's already been lowered to 10% and shear conditions are worse for it than for Leslie. -- SkyFury 18:53, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Well, it's been invested. Models do show a weak TS coming out of this. Maybe the "first storm of September" rule won't apply for this year. Ryan1000 23:50, September 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Piece of sh*t storms that come out of nowhere do have a way of skewing the statistics lol. In reality, you could probably make a similar argument for the last storm of August, but it's almost always one of the two. I still don't think this storm will do much. I was surprised they upped it to 30%. It is impossibly tiny. Reminds me of Marco or 2001's Lorenzo, which was in about the same spot. But I've been wrong before. -- SkyFury 10:06, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'd be stunned if this does anything except become a minor TS. Might not develop at all, but it certainly has a chance. Ryan1000 16:02, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * 60% might become a depression or storm tonight or tomorrow.Allanjeffs 20:36, September 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
the 13 depression of the year has form.AL, 13, 2012090318,, BEST, 0, 255N, 421W, 30, 1012, LO,Allanjeffs 20:50, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Lol. That was fast.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:55, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Dammit I was really hoping Michael was gonna be something fun to watch. Please don't strengthen. I'm so tired of these piece of crap storms that just steal a name off the list. This could be another Jose. -- SkyFury 21:36, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Me too Michael sounds like a great storm to watch,but remember Skyfury if they have the winds and the closed circulation it should be name no matter if with like it or not.Allanjeffs 21:57, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Expected to become Michael, even though it'll probrably be another fail. Ryan1000 01:04, September 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Technically Leslie is the first of September because she has been alive since the end of August and she might become a major so that rule can apply and td 13 might not become
 * Michael from what I seeing.Allanjeffs 03:14, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * And boy I was wrong Michael is born ,13 tropical storm of the season has form. AL, 13, 2012090412,, BEST, 0, 268N, 435W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1016, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, M, Allanjeffs 12:43, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Michael
Confirmed by NHC. Sorry, Eric. =( And Allan, Eric's "beware the first storm of September" adage applies to the first tropical storm to form in the month, not first to exist in the month. However, if a tropical depression forms at the end of August and becomes a TS in September, like 2007's Felix, that counts. Ryan1000 16:02, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Michael will do nothing other than exist. I don't see any landmasses being affected, and it probably will be another Joyce. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:29, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

You should never understimate a storm Andrew the same thing was say of Gordon and Kirk and they bomb to hurricanes not saying that is going to happen but it could.Allanjeffs 20:28, September 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50 mph :O It might become another Chris. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:35, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Even so, althugh Michael may become a hurricane i'm not placing my money on it. There's an upper-level low over Leslie right now producing some shear over her, and if that low interacts with Michael, he's gone. Because Michael is so small, even a slight increase in shear could kill him instantly. Ryan1000 22:20, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm ticked at Michael for screwing up my adage. It verified last year with Lee (although, if you want to nitpick, NHC's silly post-analysis storm squeaked in on the 1st). I was making fun of it this morning, calling it a piece of crap, and I think I made it mad because now it's up to 45 knots and forcast to go to 60 lol. Like I said, the adage isn't perfect. It only truly verifies roughly half the time. It's almost always, however, either the last storm of August or the first storm of September that does something bad. Sometimes destructive storms have only been narrowly usurped by a weaker storm (for example, TS Henri snuck in just ahead of Isabel in 2003). It's just a catchy, statistical rule of thumb. -- SkyFury 23:44, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I say Michael will become a cat 1 and the six or seventh hurricane depending whether Leslie becomes 1 first.Allanjeffs 03:53, September 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it has a chance at hurricane strength too, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 08:30, September 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think you guys are underestimating the potential for Michael to drive Leslie into Nova Scotia and Atlantic Canada, some models are even predicting Leslie could be a major hurricane when it slams into Canada. Which would be unprecedented and even stronger than Juan. Any major hurricane hitting Atlantic Canada will be retired... See this: --Whiplash (talk) 16:34, September 5, 2012 (UTC)

Leapt to 65 mph/998 mbar on the 1:30 pm special advisory, forecast peak intensity raised to 85 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 19:06, September 5, 2012 (UTC)

Told you Andrew to never understimate the potential of Michael up to 70mph he might very well be another Kirk.Allanjeffs 20:43, September 5, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Michael
Per ATCF. I agree Allanjeffs. Never underestimate.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:32, September 6, 2012 (UTC)

Oh, man! Busted another personal forecast! I'm surprised Michael even made it this far! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:38, September 6, 2012 (UTC)

he can even be the 1 major imo.Allanjeffs 03:07, September 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Whoa! Michael's now a Cat 2! This storm is exploding! How in the world is this happening? Conditions aren't even that favorable. I didn't think this storm was going to be anything and now it may be the first major hurricane of the season. Wow. I think he's doing this just to spite me lol! -- SkyFury 05:20, September 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually is not in that unfavorable enviroment It may become the first Major I had the gut that this was not going to be a fail.Allanjeffs 05:32, September 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * From NHC:

...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...


 * So, Michael's now a major. 115 mph winds. BTW, I'm also Anonymous 2.0. 112.201.197.76 09:03, September 6, 2012 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Michael
13-7-1! 965 mb, OMG, this is incredible, considering the NHC initially only made him a weak tropical storm at first (I think he's mad at me for calling him a fishsipnner). -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:11, September 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * From NHC:

...MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...
 * So, it's official. Is it expected to affect the Maritimes/Bermuda? 112.201.197.76 09:13, September 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * The NHC isn't predicting that, but a couple computer models predict an Azores hit. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:22, September 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * And also, Michael is the third earliest 7th hurricane on record (From NHC Discussion 13):

WITH MICHAEL BECOMING THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON EARLIER TODAY...IT MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE SEVENTH HURRICANE IN A YEAR...ONLY BEHIND 1886 AND 1893. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:16, September 6, 2012 (UTC)

Took a long time to get the first major of the year. And from an unexpected storm, very nicely played Michael! Yqt1001 (talk) 12:14, September 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * I was making fun of it at the beginning, but I think Michael had the last laugh. Turned out to be a really awesome storm. Beautiful too, check this out: . Awesome. -- SkyFury 05:16, September 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * Knew that Michael would be pretty amazing never judge a ts no matter how bad it looks it can transform into a beautiful hurricane.Allanjeffs 05:30, September 7, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Michael (2nd time)
When I went to bed a couple nights ago, the NHC had yet to confirm that Michael was a hurricane; imagine the look on my face when I woke up to find that he was the first major of the season! It was great while it lasted, but now Michael is on a gradual decline. 105 mph/970 mbar as of the 11 am advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 18:45, September 7, 2012 (UTC)

Pressure at 971 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:36, September 8, 2012 (UTC)

I left for a few days, and when I return, I see this. Michael is our first major. It's also not weakening as fast as I thought it would. I wasn't completely expecting Michael to become a major, but I never ruled it out. Just like Ophelia of last year shoved my words down my throat when I called her a disapointment, Michael shoved your words down yours, Eric. You shouldn't underestimate storms like him. They pull surprises in this area of the Atlantic lol, like Chris and Gordon earlier this year. Ryan1000 16:03, September 9, 2012 (UTC)

And Kirk too Ryan anyways we might see Nadine of 91L in the next few days and Kristy of 90E.Michael for me has been the most awesome storm of the year. and Ryan or Eric does this classify beware of the first storm of September or because it didn`t make landfall can`t because it was a major?Allanjeffs 16:56, September 9, 2012 (UTC)

Well, normally Allan, the adage applies to notable first storms of September. Ike of 2008 was one example, which also became a major but also became the third-costliest hurricane in U.S. history. Michael became a major Allan, but it didn't affect land. I respect him because he became an unexpected major, but I would value a hurricane which caused a tremendous amount of impacts on land as far more notable than some cool major that unexpectedly pulled off what it did. Considering the Bermuda High has now been placed in a similar position to where it was in the heart of the 2010 season, it looks like most of the storms from here on out, including 91L, will likely recurve out to sea. Unfortunately, we already had a severe hurricane this year. This year kind of resembles last year in the fact we had only one notable storm and (almost) everything else remained a fish (though Irene>>Isaac). We will likely end up with a similar number of storms that we had last year, and like 94L of last year was upgraded to a minor TS in post-season, 98L from late July of this year could do the same. Ryan1000 17:36, September 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * 80 mph now. Isaac829 E-Mail  11:53, September 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Michael (2nd time)
Falling down... Ryan1000 14:40, September 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now at 45 mph and expected to die a tropical death. --HurricaneMaker99 19:22, September 11, 2012 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Michael
Gone. :( -- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:54, September 11, 2012 (UTC)

Still producing gale-force winds. 24 HOUR FORECAST POST-TROPICAL MICHAEL ABSORBED BY LOW E OF AREA. (or Leslie) &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:30, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Should be interesting, 10% atm.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:52, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Developent isn't expected now (because it is clearly over land!), but might become a cyclone in the Gulf. I don't know how strong it'll get. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:56, September 5, 2012 (UTC)

Models are developing this fairly quickly.Allanjeffs 05:20, September 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * 40%! Isaac829 E-Mail  19:37, September 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now up to 50%. Recon investigation soon? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:40, September 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Probably, Andrew. Isaac829 E-Mail  01:41, September 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Scheduled for tomorrow afternoon if necessary. I'm hearing that this cluster of thunderstorms was left behind by Isaac...he's still making trouble lol. Most of the models take it to Florida as a weak tropical storm. -- SkyFury 05:25, September 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Would be Nadine if it gets name.Allanjeffs 05:30, September 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Dropped to 30%. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:32, September 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 20% :( Isaac829  E-Mail  21:37, September 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * 0% D: Isaac829  E-Mail  15:33, September 8, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi: Southeast of Cape Verde
10% atm.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:59, September 7, 2012 (UTC)

30%Allanjeffs 13:36, September 8, 2012 (UTC)

70% here comes Nadine she better not be boring.Allanjeffs 05:40, September 10, 2012 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:40, September 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * 40%. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:26, September 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe Nadine will come from this, but I'm not sure if it will affect land. Ryan1000 16:03, September 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't think this will, 50% atm. Isaac829 E-Mail  23:43, September 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * At 70% now. Likely to become Fourteen or Nadine. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:56, September 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * 90%. Should be Nadine (or 14) anytime now. Most models are expecting this to be our next major hurricane, but they recurve it out to sea, well to the east of Bermuda. Ryan1000 16:16, September 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * yeah I am pretty sure it will be nadine and our second major of the season.Allanjeffs 17:51, September 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * SHIPS and HWRF show 91L becoming Major Hurricane Nadine in ~5 days, while IVCN and GFDL make this (Minor) Hurricane Nadine. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:27, September 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Most of the models are in agreement it will head WNW, then turn NW and eventually away from land, while staying well away from land on the way. I see no reason to forecast it to do anything else. It won't be affecting land. They're a little split on the intensity, but I would take this to 135 mph at its peak. Ryan1000 02:14, September 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen
Hello Nadine-to be! Ryan1000 17:11, September 11, 2012 (UTC)

You know what this means right? If there is a "Nadine" in September, we will finally have an Oscar! Even possibly Patty and Rafael! This will be the first time ever since the name lists changed in 1979 that a storm in the Atlantic will be named Oscar, and possibly Patty an Rafael. It will also be the first time this list made it to the "O" named storm, and possibly "P" and "R" named storm. Can't wait for what's ahead after future Nadine! STO12 (talk) 00:08, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

we have Nadine. AL, 14, 2012091200,, BEST, 0, 175N, 446W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 250, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOURTEEN, M, .btw if this list reach oscar and patty it will be the last list to reach those letters , and I think we will reach William this year.Allanjeffs 00:39, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

All we need now is NHC confirmation. And guys, don't start getting too hyped. We got a record-tying 17 pre-October storms last year, only to really slow down. This year could easily do the same due to the El Nino. And also, of note, 2000 would have also used Oscar if subtropical storms were named back then (that year concluded with an unnamed subtropical storm). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:48, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

I agree that is why I am waiting for Patty the Gfs is predicting three more storms one near NC other in the western Carribean and the near the cape verdes if it verifies we will have Oscar,Patty and Rafael.Allanjeffs 02:30, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

Yes, I know, if Subtropical Storms were named, we would have had an Oscar. Since it hadn't been named, this list would still break the record of being the last list to reach these letters and the first time after the new name lists 1979 that we've reached Oscar. I really hope this list at least makes it down to Rafael; if it does then List 1 would be the one that's behind, since the name Rose has never been used. STO12 (talk) 03:04, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

List 6 haven`t reach Rene either the last one of this list was Paloma which was retire in 2008.Allanjeffs 04:22, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nadine
We have Nadine! Oscar and maybe Patty and Rafael....here we come! STO12 (talk) 02:53, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

We'd need 8 more storms to get the greeks and be the second-most active year ever. I don't see any reason why we can't either; the tropics just don't want to quit. I don't fully expect El Nino until next year, which is a cursed naming list anyways. I think this year will still be one of the most active years ever, possibly even more active than it's two predecesors, 2010 and 2011. Those two years marked the first time we had 19 named storms in two consecutive years. 2012 could make that three. Ryan1000 11:00, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

Actually Ryan the models after this year we will have a la Niña again.Allanjeffs 12:18, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not sure. We'd be going 4 years without El Nino if that happened. No strong El Nino is out now, and even if there is one coming, ATL just doesn't seem to care. Statistically it happens every 4 years or so, but it may happen sooner or later. 1997-2002 was a 5 year gap, while 2006-2009 was only a 3-year gap. I hope we go to El Nino soon so the ATL can rest a little bit, even though it wasn't catastrophic over the past few years(well, bad, but not 2004-05 bad) despite how many storms we saw. Ryan1000 16:20, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

Okay, pressure and wind measurements. 55 kt (wrong mph/kt conversion?)/994 mb for Nadine. Expected to become a moderate Category 1 hurricane. (Also, this Nadine is the strongest Nadine, as 2000's Nadine only reached 999 mb (I think)). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:20, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

up to 60knts may become a hurricane tomorrow.AL, 14, 2012091300,, BEST, 0, 202N, 495W, 60, 990, TS, 50, NEQ, 50, 50, 20, 40, 1010, 300, 15, 0, 0,.if Nadine is upgrade we will have surpass 2011 in terms of hurricanes.Allanjeffs 00:45, September 13, 2012 (UTC)

Not a hurricane quite yet, but will be soon. Ryan1000 14:10, September 13, 2012 (UTC)

AL, 14, 2012091500,, BEST, 0, 296N, 529W, 65, 986, HU<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 0, 0, 1013, 240, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D, She finally made it might strength to a cat 2.Allanjeffs 00:51, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Not sure about a Category 2, but a strong Category 1 hurricane is not out of the question. 97.106.71.84 01:46, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Nadine
At last! Nadine was procrastinating for quite a while there. I honestly half-expected her to weaken a little bit with the latest advisory. Anyway, she's at 75 mph/985 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 02:46, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

Expected to hit 80 mph. Anyway, this is the first "Hurricane Nadine" in Atlantic history (we also saw the first "Hurricane Leslie" and maybe even the first "Hurricane Beryl" in Atlantic records this year too). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:26, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It took longer than I expected to become a hurricane, but it is one now. Likely to keep going northeast and die out to sea. Ryan1000 14:42, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Nadine went up to 80 mph/983 mb and then back down to 75 mph/985 mb since the last post. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:44, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nadine (2nd time)
Powered back down last night but forecast to stick around for quite a while. 11 am advisory said 70 mph, 987 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 19:18, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">We haven't paid much attention to Nadine, but she's close to the Azores right now and she's been stalling for a while. She will likely die in 2-3 days. Ryan1000 12:26, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

Sigh...What's taking you, Nadine? You're just gonna sit over the North Atlantic for as long as you want? You'll die at some point, but later than I earlier thought. Ryan1000 17:21, September 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * I just checked the models and it doesn't appear that Nadine will die off quickly at all. In fact GFS still has this storm going for all of next week, just bobbing back and forth between the Azores and Canary Islands. Though I'm not sure how long it will retain tropical characteristics. Supportstorm (talk) 18:32, September 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Latest ATCF says that Nadine has become subtropical. --HurricaneMaker99 19:39, September 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Seems like it isn't going to die quickly after all. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:29, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Nadine
Official per NHC. 60 mph, 982 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 20:40, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

Didn't expect this. Anyway, this event is quite uncommon. Its only happened a few times before (Gilda '73, Klaus '84, Allison, and Lee '11). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:11, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">This stubborn little storm has been around for two and a half weeks, and based on what I've rescently checked, a few models even take this up to hurricane strength again in 3-4 days. This storm will take a while to die out. Ryan1000 21:51, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nadine
I take back what I said.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:40, September 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Wha...Didn't expect that to happen lol. It might be brought back, but I didn't expect it to die so fast. Ryan1000 04:34, September 22, 2012 (UTC)

Has a 40% chance of regeneration now, but not likely to become more than a TS again. I'm surprised as to how many storms we've had thus far. 2012 was initially predicted to be El Nino but we've already had 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes and a major hurricane. Also, since 94L rescently and 98L of late July could be upgraded in post-season, we really might be at 16-8-1 now. We've had 7 storms -- Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, and Leslie -- that have hit land thus far this year, but only 3 have done so as hurricanes (Ernesto, Gordon, and Isaac, of which only Isaac was severe), and Michael only briefly became a minimal major hurricane with winds of 115 and a pressure of 964 mbars. If we don't get a stronger storm than him through the rest of the season, it will be the weakest storm of any season since 1995 to be the season's strongest as well. There is still two months and a week until 2012 AHS is over, but although the Atlantic is sleeping now, it will likely reawaken in October with 2-3 more storms, at least. NHC still hasn't finished any TCR's for the Atlantic. Ryan1000 23:13, September 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Whoa, whoa, whoa. It's up to 90% now everyone. It seems Nadine just doesn't want to go away. She'll probrably be upgraded again later today. Ryan1000 14:07, September 23, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nadine (3rd time)
Yay!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  14:55, September 23, 2012 (UTC)

Again!? Wow, Nadine really wants more attention before going away. Seems Nadine pulled an Ophelia (2011). STO12 (talk) 15:26, September 23, 2012 (UTC)

She will probably win the first spot in ace and she is expect to be a hurricane once again.Allanjeffs 15:30, September 23, 2012 (UTC)

Nadine is more like a Philippe (2011) to me. Looks like we could see the longest lasting Atlantic system since Bertha in 2008. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:28, September 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * She's back! This is pretty amazing. Nadine has persisted through strong shear and interaction with non-tropical systems. Many of the models, however, were calling for Nadine to regain tropical characteristics and it seems they were right. Interesting that not only is Nadine alive, but it's forecast to regain its prior peak intensity. With Nadine forecast to be a category 1 hurricane at the end of five days, we could be talking about this storm persisting into early next week, which would put its lifespan at right around twenty days. That's will make it the longest lived tropical cyclone in the Atlantic since at least Ivan, but remember Ivan was a remnant low for multiple days as it circled back around to the Gulf for its miraculous reincarnation. -- SkyFury 18:59, September 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I knew it would be alive for longer. It's one persistent little storm. It's been a while since I've seen a storm last this long, especially in this area of the Atlantic lol. It could last almost to the start of October. Keep going Nadine! You can make it! Ryan1000 23:12, September 23, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Over Bahamas
Near 0% for now, but it may develop in the long run. Maybe this could be Oscar down the road. Ryan1000 00:42, September 13, 2012 (UTC)

Yep I agree if it can stay for the TWO all day tomorrow or is up tomorrow it might have a chance.Allanjeffs 00:47, September 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gone from NHC. Ryan1000 14:10, September 13, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Near Lesser Antillies
10% atm, but not likely to develop in the next few days due to wind shear. Could become something in the Western Caribbean though. Ryan1000 14:42, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
20% and now is 92L I have a feeling it would be something.May be bump to 30 at the next two.Allanjeffs 21:43, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Probrably won't become much of anything until it reaches the western Caribbean though. Certainly has a chance at becoming Oscar. Ryan1000 00:44, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Update:Whoa, I've underestimated this storm. This isn't looking good...NHC (SHIPS) is already predicting this to become a near-major hurricane in the western Caribbean near Jamacia and Hispaniola and it's only a minor invest atm. This storm is already starting to scare me. I guess it could become Oscar much sooner than I thought. Ryan1000 02:53, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Good news! Enviormental conditions are getting unfavorable for 92L. It's now down to 10%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:46, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
20% near Texas O.o Isaac829  E-Mail  18:26, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I wouldn't expect this to do much. If it wants to become Oscar (or Patty), it would have to do it right now. Ryan1000 20:26, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

AOI.Central Atlantic
10% atm. Oscar, anyone? Ryan1000 12:23, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe. The NHC says possible transition to a storm. Either way, the AOI's at 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:20, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

I think it would be Oscar.Allanjeffs 21:27, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
up to 40% might become Oscar tomorrow or Friday.Allanjeffs 23:54, September 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think this will become Oscar tomorrow. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:12, September 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I say it will peak as a 70mph ts or a hurricane.Allanjeffs 02:24, September 20, 2012 (UTC)

It will most likely become Oscar due to the favorable conditions and all the open room for it to strengthen. I don't expect a strong hurricane, it will most likely become a subtropical storm and then move towards Bermuda. STO12 (talk) 13:49, September 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Was invested earlier, but either way, it's likely to head westward north of Bermuda and possibly could hit Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. May become TS Oscar on the way. Ryan1000 14:19, September 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">If it becomes a little more organized it would probably be upgrade to ts Oscar at 11pm.Allanjeffs 20:35, September 20, 2012 (UTC)

I think so. Almost all of the models point this to Newfoundland over the next few days, but Nova Scotia isn't off the hook completely. Bermuda could also recieve some waves from this, but other than some rain and wind, they shouldn't be hit that hard. Ryan1000 17:18, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

94L better come together fast...down to 30%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:13, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Maybe it missed it's chance already...but I'm not giving up on this yet. Ryan1000 21:51, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Almost done...20%. Pull a Jose (2011), get upgraded in post season (it'll 94L in September 2011), or die. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:19, September 22, 2012 (UTC)

I think it missed it's chance. There is a chance of a post-season upgrade with this, as is there with 98L of late July this year, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 04:34, September 22, 2012 (UTC)

New Hurricane Wiki Main Page
I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go:

Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here.

Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it.

Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I like the new homepage. Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * This new homepage is truly awesome! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:
 * Alberto - 0% - No.
 * Beryl - 20% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Chris - 0% - It's a early hurricane, but I still doubt it.
 * Debby - 25% - Wasn't as bad as I expected.
 * Ernesto - 20% - See you in 2018, Ernie.
 * Florence - 0% - Probably not.
 * Gordon - 15% - See Beryl.
 * Helene - 5% - Less damage than Ernesto.
 * Isaac - >40% - For now.
 * Joyce - 0% - Florence's twin.
 * Kirk - 0% - See ya next time!
 * Leslie - 5% - See Ernesto.
 * Michael - 0% - Nope.
 * Nadine - 10% - See Gordon.

Isaac829 E-Mail  04:02, September 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. <font color="Blue">Darren 23   Edits |Mail  01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that, meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. <font color="Blue">Darren 23   Edits |Mail  15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Alberto - 0.1% - Some slight effects in the Southeast, but it's not likely.
 * 2) Beryl - 10% - Lots of Memorial Day hype, but damage will probably not be enough for retirement.
 * 3) Chris - 0.01% - A rare and unusual storm! The 0.01% is for what he accomplished.
 * 4) Debby - 20% - Loads of flooding in Florida.
 * 5) Ernesto - 25% - No Emily.
 * 6) Florence - 0% - NO.
 * 7) Gordon - 5% - I underestimated your damage in the Azores.
 * 8) Helene - 2% - Gave Mexico some rain.
 * 9) Isaac - 60% - Everyone, call me crazy, but a storm causing $2 billion is NOTHING to giggle at. It is almost safe to say that all our Atlantic "I" names are now replacements of previous ones.
 * 10) Joyce - 0% - Ususally, I don't post a storm's retirement chance while it's spinning, but Joyce has no hope of going.
 * 11) Kirk - 0% - See you in six years!
 * 12) Leslie - 4% - Newfoundland made it out okay.
 * 13) Michael - 0.05% - Amazing unexpected major, but really, I just gave Mike 0.05% for shoving the word "intensity" in my cheeks.
 * 14) Nadine - 2% - Gave the Azores some rain.


 * We've started this already? Really? Lol. -- SkyFury 21:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I mentioned it's not worth the trouble to start it after just few (fish) storms in the season. Unless Debby turns out to be threatening for Corpus Christi, I won't be posting mine for a while. Ryan1000 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's a little to early to do retirements, the next chance for me to post mine will be when a big hurricane is threatening a land mass, Debby came close, but it just decided to be picked up by the trough. 96.242.128.215 18:03, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

My Percentages:
 * 1. Alberto: 0% - Only slight effects.
 * 2. Beryl: 2% - Not alot of damage.
 * 3. Chris: 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's about it.
 * 4. Debby: 25% - Some flooding in Florida.
 * 5. Ernesto: 25% - Effects not damaging enough.
 * 6. Florence: 0% - See you in 2018.
 * 7. Gordon: 15% - Probably not much in Europe
 * 8. Helene: 10% - Didn't amount to much.
 * 9. Isaac: 60% - Looks like Isaac is our first real retirement contender.
 * 10. Joyce: 0% - Joyce, you didn't have a choice.
 * 11. Kirk: 0% - Kirk won't affect anyone.
 * 12. Leslie: 10% - Newfoundland turned out okay.
 * 13. Michael: 0% - First major of the season, but no.

Simlover123 (talk) 03:08, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

My turn

Alberto:1% unsual doesn`t mean retirement

Beryl: 10% rare may storm but not a lot of damage. it even help with th drought

Chris: 0% rare don`t earn retirement

Debby: 30% a lot of flood in Florida and tornadoes but no allison

Ernesto: 25% probable a cat 2 but no a lot of damage for Mexico standards

Florence:0% Meh... see you in 2018

Gordon:7% don`t know if he produced damge but if he did maybe not a lot May do some in the Azores

Helene:5% Fail even though you kill two people

Isaac:85% the thing is it would be a bust if you stay with at least 5billion dollars in damage you are out imo even Dr Masters think you are gone.

Joyce:0% FAIL!!! even Florence was better than you I pity storms like you.

Kirk 0% you were near major hurricane but no effects on land

Leslie 5% just some winds to Newfoundland

Michael 0% the most beautiful storm of the season but no

Nadine???

Allanjeffs 20:41, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Now that we've had a decent number of storms, I'll do mine. --HurricaneMaker99 16:44, August 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto: 0% - Gets points for the early kickoff, but if there was any impact, it was negligible.
 * Beryl: 10% - This storm was amazing to watch. Second pre-season storm for the first time in 104 years, second May storm for the first time in 125 years, strongest pre-season U.S. landfall on record, strongest pre-season storm in 42 years (Hurricane Alma 1970)... the fact that Beryl accomplished all of these meteorological achievements without ever becoming a hurricane makes it seem all the more badass. Impact, however, was fairly minor, even though the timing sucked.
 * Chris: 0% - Put on a freakshow in the far northern Atlantic, but didn't hurt anybody in the process.
 * Debby: 15% - I'm skeptical about the damage figure being as low as $42.5 million. Take a look at this. 28.78 inches of rain? Wow. With such a large area receiving 7+ inches of rain, I wouldn't necessarily expect retirement-worthy figures, but still.
 * Ernesto: 10% - Wasn't as bad as Arlene last year, if stronger.
 * Florence: 0% - Gets an F.
 * Gordon: 10% - It looks like the Azores made it out OK.
 * Helene: 2% - Looked very sickly when it made landfall in Mexico, so I doubt there's much damage there. I also doubt that the damage and 2 fatalities in Trinidad & Tobago will count since they were from the remnants of then-TD 7, but then they wouldn't be enough for retirement anyway.
 * Isaac: N/A - Still active, but I'm growing increasingly concerned about Mississippi.
 * Joyce: 0% - At least Florence was respectably strong.

Ryan grand has made his speech: Ryan1000 21:40, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - Not exactly a fail because it formed 2 weeks ahead of schedule, but no (significant) impacts, so no retirement here.
 * Beryl - 5% - Beryl is somewhat credible for it's early formation and landfall, but impacts weren't too serious. In fact, it was helpful for relieving the drought in that part of the lower 48.
 * Chris - 0% - I gotta say, I'm impressed Chris managed to pull of a hurricane, but let's be serious here. It never hit land, so he won't be retired.
 * Debby - 20% - If the initial reports are underexaggerated, this might be a 30% instead. However, one thing's for sure - Debby was no Allison.
 * Ernesto - 10% - Ernie was much less than what I expected him to be, but although he hit as a hurricane and caused some impacts, in comparison to what Mexico has seen before (Alex, Karl) Ernesto hardly stands a chance of retirement.
 * Florence - 0% - Little Flo didn't pack a blow...Yeah, she's the last original "F" name from the 1979-now lists (like Isaac is the last original "I" name), but sorry Flo, no chance of retirement. Better luck in 2018.
 * Gordon - 10% - It certainly caused some impacts in the Azores, but probrably not enough for retirement.
 * Helene - 5% - Very little impact.
 * Isaac - 60% - Damage increased to 2 billion now. Isaac may be retired, but it's not certain.
 * Joyce - 0% - You have no choice Joyce. Try again in 2018.
 * Kirk - 0% - Another NHC defier, but didn't affect land.
 * Leslie - 10% - Wasn't too bad for Newfoundland.
 * Michael - 0% - Might have been an unexpected major, but it still didn't hit land.
 * Nadine - 0% - Never affected land.

My predictions: Andros 1337 (talk) 23:07, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - <1% - very minor effects on the East Coast.
 * Beryl - 10% - strongest pre-season storm to hit the U.S., although effects were minor.
 * Chris - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Debby - 20% - moderate effects, but nothing too severe.
 * Ernesto - 15% - some moderate effects, although Mexico has seen much worse before.
 * Florence - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Gordon - 10% - some impact on the Azores, but nothing severe.
 * Helene - 5% - minor impact.
 * Isaac - 60% - Current damage estimate is $3 billion.
 * Joyce - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Kirk - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Leslie - ?? - to early to determine, however, Bermuda should be watching this storm.

The Great Seer Speaketh: -- SkyFury 02:28, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto: 3% - This storm did cause rough surf along the east coast that required several water rescues.
 * Beryl: 15% - Beryl was amazing. It was damn near a hurricane when it hit Florida...in May! Crazy. I was flying home from London the day it made landfall and we were wondering if it was gonna affect us. Turns out it didn't but it was definitely interesting. Killed six people but didn't cause much damage.
 * Chris: 0% - Probably made Grand Banks fishing a little interesting though. It was a beautiful storm.
 * Debby: 25% - Caused very severe flooding across northern Florida and killed nine people.
 * Ernesto: 15% - Raised hell, but in the end, it wasn't much. It did kill seven people.
 * Florence: 0% - Fell on its face way out in no man's land. Not even sure the Cape Verdes got a drop of rain.
 * Gordon: 5% - It got fun in the Azores for a bit.
 * Helene: 10% - Caused some minor flooding in Mexico, killed 2.
 * Isaac: 60% - Isaac is a borderline retirement case. New Orleans's $14 billion super levees did their job but Isaac caused incredible flooding in surrounding parishes and it may yet get worse. Death tolls and damage figures have gone up. Right now, the death toll sits at about nine in the US and 44 total with damage estimates at $3-4 billion. That's a pretty good case but we'll have to wait and see. If the US formally requests its retirement, it will probably be retired.
 * Joyce: 0% - Isaac's outflow had her taken outside and shot in the face lol.
 * Kirk: 0% - The bad Star Trek jokes will return in six years. See you in 2018 Captain Kirk! Godspeed.
 * Leslie: ??
 * (to be continued)

Here's mine (Liz)
 * Alberto = 1/10. Break the mould.
 * Beryl = 2/10. She wasn't that bad after all...
 * Chris = -1/10. Greenland fail.
 * Debby = 3.5/10. Debz, did you flood Florida? Debby: Yes I did but I don't think I'll be kicked out of the list yet.
 * Ernesto = 4.5/10. When I walk on the islands, this is what I see. Everybody stops and staring at ME, I got water in my squirtgun and I ain't afraid to squirt it, squirt it, squirt is, I'm Ernie and I know it. (Ernie: I WON'T GET KICKED OFF THE LIST!)
 * Florence = 0/10. I think the machine broke down....
 * Gordon = 2/10. Caused a Portuguese hurricane party, but was not like Ramsey. Good gordon! :D
 * Helene = 1/10. Umm... The Carribbean saw much worse. But H storms are known for unpredictibility.
 * Isaac = 9/10. That was like another Katrina, but weaker! :(
 * Joyce = 0/10. Florence's sister.
 * Kirk = 0/10. Nice and kind.
 * Leslie = 2/10. ok cool les
 * Michael = 1/10. THRILLER! THRILLER NIGHT! Ok, this storm fails 100% when it comes to landfall, but good work on the major part.
 * Nadine = 0/10. Even Cheryl Cole could do better than that! Come on Nadine, you fail 999%. Nadine: OH I'm insatiable (not really lol.)
 * 188.223.248.201 19:52, September 3, 2012 (UTC)

Replacement names
This might be a bit soon, but since we have a reasonable canidate for retirement, anyone have suggestions for Isaac? I know we're desperately running out of (descent) male "I" names, but I have a few here: Of these five, my personal pick would be Icarus. Ryan1000 22:11, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Icarus
 * Ignatius
 * Ioan
 * Irving
 * Ichabod

Here are mine: And please don't tell me the names have to be of English, Spanish, or French origin, since there was never such a requirement by the WMO. Andros 1337 (talk) 23:01, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Italo
 * Italus
 * Innocenzo
 * Ippolito
 * Ignazio
 * Inigo
 * Inocencio
 * Ildefonso
 * Isandro
 * Iago
 * Immanuel
 * Indigo
 * Irwin
 * Izzy (Yes, this can be a male name)
 * Isamu
 * Ifor
 * Ilswyn

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I like the names, though a few of them sound weird to me. I'll stick with Icarus. Also, Irwin's not a possibility IMO since it is already in use on the EPac; 2011 most rescently. Ignazio is a little confusing with Ignacio, as is Ignatius, but if the WMO can have two variants of the same name on both the ATL and EPac lists (i.e. Frank and Franklin, 2010 EPac and 2011 ATL), I wouldn't rule it out. I don't think the exact same name can be on both lists at the same time though, because if a severe Atlantic hurricane named Irwin hit Mexico and they requested it to be retired, the EPac Irwin would have to be retired as well to avoid confusion, and we'd need two new "I" replacements. And yeah, names don't have to be of English, French, or Spanish origin. Karl of 2010 is German, Igor of 2010 was Russian, ect. Ryan1000 23:49, August 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Ion

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Iden :this one

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Iron

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Ira: or this one can be the replacement of Isaac.

<p style="margin-left: 24px">IcariusAllanjeffs 01:04, September 1, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Here are my replacements:

We really don't have many unweird "I" names. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:14, September 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Isa
 * Ila (Arabic name)
 * Ilya (Russian name)
 * Iestin (variant of Justin) (my pick)
 * Immanuel
 * Innocente
 * Innocent
 * Ioan (too similar to Ione?)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think Ioan is too confusing with Ione, but it could be. I personally pronounce them differently. I just thought a few of Andross's "I" names looked weird. Not all though, and we don't have as many "I" names as we do other names. Isa sounds feminine, but it could be either, even though it sounds weird. Ryan1000 03:24, September 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * My pick would probably be either Irving or Iggy. --HurricaneMaker99 14:10, September 1, 2012 (UTC)

I almost hope Isaac won't be retired because we're running out of 'I' names lol: The WMO has proven they are not shy about selecting Bible names, so any of this is fair game. Irvin and Ira are probably my favorite of this list. Irvin may be a little too close to Irwin, which is in use in the EPAC and Ira may be too close to Ida, which is in use, but I doubt either of those would present a problem. My concern is that, even though there are some good names remaining, that they're gonna start picking ridiculous stuff like Dorian in 2007 and Gonzalo in 2008. -- SkyFury 02:51, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Irvin
 * Irving
 * Immanuel
 * Innocente
 * Ingram
 * Ibrahim
 * Innis
 * Ioan
 * Ira
 * Ishmael (maybe there are some Moby Dick fans at the WMO)
 * Isa (was used in the West Pacific in 1997, it was one of the many Cat 5s that year)
 * Izzy

Wouldn't Isaiah be possible? 65.34.84.50 03:18, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gonzalo was a joke. Gary would have been my personal pick for Gustav, but they had to pick that. Ian would have been my pick for Ike in 2008 (which also replaced Typhoon Ike in 1984), but Ian wasn't used as a replacement until Igor got the boot in 2010. Fernand was a complete F**k up; Fernando would have been the better choice by far. And we still have some descent "I" names left, but hopefully the WMO won't pick anything stupid. Ryan1000 05:20, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Robbie, Isaiah is too similar to Isaias, Ike's replacement. My replacement for Isaac, as said above, is Iestin. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  05:50, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'd pick Irving. Irving was already used in the WPac basin in the early 90's. 112.201.177.59 11:46, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Andrew please no. I can't even pronounce it. Ryan, I consider "Ferndand" to be a typo and will always use "Fernando" unless arm twisted. Hell, "Ferdinand" would've been better. "Dorian" was the worst though. There were so many great 'D' names to chose from: Derek, Darren, Daryl...the list goes on and on, but they chose that. Unbelievable. The WMO seems to have favored short names recently (Ike, Ida, Don, Ian), especially for 'I' storms, which is why I give a slight edge to "Ira". Of the seven 'I' names that have been retired (all in the past 11 years), five have been replaced by names of four letters or less. So I would look at the shorter names as being the most likely. But, again, predicting what the WMO is gonna do is like predicting what these hurricanes are gonna do. -- SkyFury 19:16, September 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * "There were so many great 'D' names to chose from: Derek, Darren, Daryl..." ...Dylan? ;) (though FWIW, I'm in the minority that likes Dorian... but still) --HurricaneMaker99 21:33, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yo. Liz here.
 * Mmm.... Probably Ivor, Ismail, Ibby, Irving, Irvo, or Iggy to replace Isaac. Something nice but not too silly.


 * Silliest Hurricane Names Yet:


 * Humberto?
 * Fabian? (Fab Ian?)
 * Dorian? (Door Ian?)
 * Olga?
 * Nestor? (Birds have Nestors.)
 * "Isiahhs?" spelt wrong?
 * Fernand? (Ferdinand? Fernando?!?)
 * Gonzalo (Rip off of gonzalez)
 * Joaquin? (Joachim, much?)
 * Christoble? (Superpower?)

Epac now...


 * Jova?
 * Bud?
 * Pillar?
 * Ignahcio?
 * Dora the Explorer?!
 * Nada?
 * Fasto? (What on earth is a Fasto?)
 * Polo? (Water Polo? Or maybe lyrics from Nicki Minaj's Super Bass?)
 * Tico?
 * Xina?
 * Cosme? (Isn't that a girls' name?)
 * Kiko? (Isn't that a girls name?)
 * Hernan?
 * Eleda?
 * Paine? (That's a surname, like Liam Payne of One Direction?)
 * Gurrllliermo? (however that's spelt?)
 * Those are the silliest ATL and EPAC names I have heard of. What do you think?
 * No names need to be of English French of Spanish origin. Igor/Ivan/Olga them lot were Slavic, Rina is an Indian name (used by Japan too,) Omar is an Arabic name, Ingrid is a Norwegian name and so on.
 * What do you think? Please comment! 188.223.248.201 22:59, September 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Also add Hortense, Gerda, Francelia, Isbell, Debra, Felice, Gilda, Fifi, Hallie, Dottie, Emmy, Inga and Babe. BTW, 188, Cosme and Kiko aren't girls' names. 219.90.94.162 07:49, September 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yes they are girls names, 219.


 * Cosme, as a girl's name is a variant of (Greek), and the meaning of Cosme is "order, beauty"
 * Kiko is a Japanese girls' name, a variant of Keiko, meaning, "be glad." 188.223.248.201 19:38, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

I don't think all of the names are ridiculous, but as long as the WMO doesn't choose anything stupid for Isaac, I'll be ok. I don't think all of the replacement names are strange, except for Dorian, Fernand, and probrably Gonzalo. And the WMO can replace names with other names that look like the retired name (Rita>Rina or Stan>Sean), so Isaiah could replace Isaac even though it's not far off from it. And Andrew, Isaiah and Isaias may sound similar, but I don't pronounce them the same way. I personally don't confuse Ivan with Ian (though Ivan's Russian pronunciation is ee-vahn), nor Ioan and Ione (I pronounce Ione as eye-own-e), even though they're just one or two letters off. I thought Irma would be Irene's replacement last year, and it was. Hopefully I'll be right again this year with Icarus replacing Isaac. Ryan1000 23:34, September 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Personally, my picks would either be Ippolito or Ignazio, considering the relative lack of Italian names. Andros 1337 (talk) 00:49, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Most of the names recently have been fine, but there have been a few that are really unfortunate lol. -- SkyFury 10:18, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ryan I like the name Dorian.Gonzalo was put because in Cuba is a very popular name and maybe they ask for it and Fernand is also a good replacement in my opinion.and anon all the names that you have ask for the epac are all very popular in Mexico like elida or Pilar and Fausto.Allanjeffs 21:03, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * That's not what I think though Allan. There were so many better "D" names to choose from IMO, but they picked Dorian. I do not like Fernand so much either because it's a French name. I think Fernando (the Spanish version of Fernand) would've been better, especially considering Felix caused most of it's damage in a Spanish-speaking country. The same goes for Gonzalo. I think Gonzalez would've been a better replacement, but Gary was my pick for Gustav in 2008. Ryan1000 01:04, September 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gonzalez is a last name Gonzalo is the first name. Allanjeffs 01:52, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Although there may be abnormal names on today's ATL and EPAC lists, Liz, you should get a load of what they used during the old days: ATL Female Name Fails (some of these are another Wikia contributor's ideas):


 * Gerda (Or this one)
 * Francelia
 * Kendra (I don't see anything wrong with this, 219).
 * Isbell
 * Debra (Or this one!)
 * Felice
 * Gilda
 * Fifi (SERIOUSLY?!)
 * Hallie
 * Dottie
 * Emmy
 * Inga
 * Babe (Wha...?)
 * Cleo (Come on!)
 * Candy (Really?)
 * Beulah
 * Blanche (I can't even prononunce this one!)

Sorry if I've sidetracked the discussion or if I've confused anyone. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:17, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Lol! Fifi and the Flowertots? Blanche from Coronation Street? (a popular soap drama series on TV) Cleo? Cleopatra! Gilda? Gilma? Like the Epac in Hawaii? Hallie? Halle Berry? Candy? (I see Toons on Toontown called Candy) Okay... I agree that some of these names are kinda weird. Anyway... Beulah is an old fashioned name. But the name Fifi cracked me up XD What do you think ppl? Which is the weirdest name in Epac and Atl history? (one boy and one girl name plz.) ty! 188.223.248.201 19:44, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think all the names were confusing, and I wouldn't sidetrack the discussion too much. The point of this was to speculate over what would replace Isaac. I'm placing my money on Icarus, though many other names are avaliable. Ryan1000 22:20, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Liz, the weirdest ATL name EVER used IMO, is Fifi, and the weirdest EPAC name is Xina, but this usually isn't the right place to say these kind of things. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:37, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Hmm...Isaac will most likely be retired and I think that these names below will probably be brought up at the WMO session in 2013.


 * Ignatius (this name is one of my top picks)
 * Innis
 * Icarus
 * Idan
 * Inver (this name is one of my top picks)
 * Irvin
 * Ilya
 * Irving
 * Ivor (this name is one of my top picks)

Ignatius, Inver, or Ivor is the ones I think will most likely replace Isaac in 2013. Wow, the WMO is definitely running out of "I" named storms, the better think up some new names fast or a past hurricane name could be brought back D: STO12 (talk) 01:04, September 5, 2012 (UTC)

Otto, I don't think that bringing up a retired hurricane name will occur (Although it technically happened with Carol and Edna). We still have some "normal" I names, then we hit the crazy ones. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:00, September 5, 2012 (UTC)

The H Factor (Hurricane Talent Show?)
Well well well... I'm back now. What about, (this is a cool idea, huh?) We could put all the hurricanes (yearly) into a little talent show that you could all possibly do, ''"The H Factor." ''It is a spin off of the X factor and I'm just wondering if this is a cool idea... So how it works is... Example (this is mine, I'm Liz:)
 * 1) All Epac and Atlantic hurricanes are entered as a year group (e.g. All 2012 hurricanes Epac and Atl would enter as the 2012 Team.)
 * 2) Pick 4 Judges from past seasons (two boy hurricanes and two girl hurricanes.)
 * 3) Pick 1 Presenter from past seasons.
 * 4) Judge the hurricanes on their talent (i.e. strength, longetivity, what they do, etc)
 * 5) There should be one winner per basin. (Technically, I mean which was your favourite storm of the season?)
 * 6) Put who you think should be judges and presenter at the bottom here.

2012 JUDGES: 2012 PRESENTER: Katrina (2005)
 * Ivan (2004) Head Judge
 * Rita (2005)
 * Jova (2011)
 * Floyd (1999)

Then everyone on the wiki should judge how the 2012 hurricanes would be based on what they do!

What do you all think? Which hurricanes should be the judges and presenters and why? 188.223.248.201 18:06, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe:

Dora (1964)

Carla (1961)

Allen (1980)

Igor (2010)

Presenter: Fabian (2003)

Cool idea, Liz! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:22, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

okie!! who will be head judge tho? And... ok, would you like fabian or katrina to be presenter of atl or epac? ok, and yep, this is the 2012 official lineup :D 188.223.248.201 22:59, September 18, 2012 (UTC)