Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: Area of low pressure in Mid-Atlantic
Another early Cape Verde wave. This one has more of a chance than 93L ever did, though. Shear is low, it has LLC and warm SST's. However, there is dust and only limited convection, so it's quite possible that it wont form. NHC finally used one of it's floaters, so at least they're interested. Here's a current picture: Cainer91 21:50, 2 July 2007 (UTC)
 * I've been watching this one all day. Looks great, but needs convection. It'll likely get a decent blow up of convection tonight or tomorrow. I give it a 70% chance of 96L. 45% chance of TD 3. Just my own opinion. Cyclone1 (22:56 UTC -2/07/2007)
 * The SSD has already called it 96L. The NRL should have it up within a few more hours. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 23:57, 2 July 2007 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
And here it is. -- RattleMan 04:37, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Long overdue. I'm 50/50 it will develop, but it was clearly an invest. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 04:39, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * And SSD is giving it T1.5/1.5 dvorak estimates which is very impressive. -- WmE 12:50, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Looks pretty impressive. This I think is the best chance yet for our 3rd storm. Bob rulz 13:22, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Models are bringing it into the northeastern Caribbean. I don't have a link, I saw it posted on Storm2k. Cyclone1 (15:06 UTC -3/07/2007)

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE... SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That says it all folks! Cyclone1 (15:15 UTC -3/07/2007)


 * Quickscat shows a closed 30kt surface low... Isn't that a tropical depression? Cyclone1 (15:43 UTC -3/07/2007)


 * Technically, yes, but I imainge the NHC wants to wait and see if it can maintain it's convection and winds before naming it a Tropical Depression. Cainer91 16:18, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, especially becuase the storm is thousands of miles away from the US. Maybe tonight. Convection has remained constant since this morning. Cyclone1 (17:07 UTC -3/07/2007)


 * I guess I missed the part where it has to be a depression for 36 hours before we call it unless its near land in the NHC description. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 17:29, 3 July 2007 (UTC)

Hah, well, I don't know about 36 hours. It should be a depression tonight. It should be a depression now. The NHC is a mystery. Cyclone1 (17:35 UTC -3/07/2007)
 * Conditions are not that favorable right now. Shear is a bit strong, and there is plenty of dry air especially to the north of the disturbance. So they're probably going to wait if the system can hold together. -- WmE 17:57, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * The dry air is killing it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html -Winter123 18:37, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Nope, the dry air is hindering it. It's far from being killed. In fact, in the last few frames, moisture is increasing. Cyclone1 (19:02 UTC -3/07/2007)

The sun has now set over the invest. The convection survived the day and should build tonight. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 21:07, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * We may have a depression by the 11:00 advisory. Cyclone1 (22:33 UTC -3/07/2007)
 * Eh, it's still rather ragged for the NHC to consider it a TD at the moment. The're going rather conservative with it aslo, mainly because it's hundreds of miles from any land, so right now it doesn't really matter if they classify it. However, if it can keep up this convection, I wouldn't be surprised to see TD sometime tomorrow as it moves into warmer SST's and more favourable shear. Cainer91 23:46, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued, danger are up, TD-3 will probably be declared today. Cyclone1 (13:30 UTC -4/07/2007)

The dry air got to it. Maybe once it reaches the Caribbean. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 19:41, 4 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Exactly. Nothing in the short term. It's a naked low. HOWEVER, by Friday, if the low holds together (which looks likely), dry air should lighten up and convection should easily refire near the center. Until then, convection should flare back up tonight in the soutrhern half. This storm is far from dead. Cyclone1 (20:20 UTC -4/07/2007)


 * I still doubt 96L will reach depression status. At the moment, it is being choked by dry air. Sure, it's holding it's own, but over the next two days, shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 knots. The shear coupled with dry air and almost no convection will almost certianly spell the end for this poor little wave. I'm actually rather surprised at how well it's been doing today, with dry air completely surrounding it's northern quadrant. It's a tenacious wave, that's for sure. Cainer91 21:24, 4 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, unless some miracle convection forms over night, it's all over. Oh, well. Bring on 97L.Cyclone1 (23:50 UTC -4/07/2007)


 * Don't count it out... There's still convection and a well defined center. Models agree it's going to head south of haiti where conditions are better. I think this will be our third storm unless crazy shear comes out of nowhere and kills it. -Winter123 03:24, 5 July 2007 (UTC)

It's an open wave. She's a goner. Why?! I thought this was it this time!! *runs away crying into the darkness* Cyclone1 (15:23 UTC -5/07/2007)


 * Heh, I'll join you on that. *sobs* -Winter123 15:38, 5 July 2007 (UTC)


 * XD. Cyclone1 (16:18 UTC -5/07/2007)
 * Is ":::::::But it DOES exist!! *runs away crying like a little girl, arms flailing* -Winter123" what you were linking me to? Heh, I had forgotten that discussion. Glad it did finally get "unnamed". -Winter123 06:11, 6 July 2007 (UTC)

Heh, yeah, I just thought it was pretty funny. Cyclone1 (18:18 UTC -6/07/2007)


 * * comes back from the darkness* Wh-what's this? Is that... is that a convection flare up.... in the middle of the day? In the middle of the circulation? Could it be? Cyclone1 (16:44 UTC -5/07/2007)

Well, I guess we can now definitively consider this storm very dead. It's in the middle of a desert of dry air and sheer is forecast to increase. It's over. Unless convection should flare up near the center and remain that way for a few days, which is extremely unlikely, it's over. Dead. Done. Nothing form 96, bring on the next one. Cyclone1 (00:52 UTC -6/07/2007)
 * Incredibly, this undead little storm still has circulation and convection (see NRL page). Approaching warmer waters at that. Doubtful that it will survive any longer but still impressive. 91.65.0.47 19:18, 6 July 2007 (UTC)
 * I know. I am nothing short of amazed that it's kept its INVEST status so long. Maybe.... MAYBE, it'll flare up in the Caribbean, however, that's a big maybe. Cyclone1 (01:51 UTC -7/07/2007)

Crazy shear, but its in a stream of moisture and the LLC is still very distunguishable! No TD status ever for this I bet, but it's the most interesting INVEST I've ever seen. -Winter123 04:01, 7 July 2007 (UTC)


 * It's......Still......96L.... It won't die. Cyclone1 (23:00 UTC -8/07/2007)
 * It STILL is, according to NRL, even though it moved inland over south america over two days ago. -Winter123 07:38, 9 July 2007 (UTC)
 * To clarify this, the center of what little circulation there was left has moved inland, but in the same region that NRL has been designated as 96L, there is some offshore activity including a lot of convection. Seems that the whole region is sparkling with storms and it looks quite active offshore; so, not impossible that there will be some development in the future. That's one undead tropical wave indeed. 141.83.15.153 12:26, 9 July 2007 (UTC)
 * The NRL site is screwed up. 96L is dead. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 18:24, 9 July 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Inland over Fl Peninsula
I guess this is the next one? TWO mentions a sfc low over FL with convection over the Bahamas. Conditions are not great. It's like 95L all over again. The only difference is, this one is forecast to slowly drift over the Gulf (the low, not the convection). Still, I don't think it has much of a shot unless the low does drift west and fire some convection over the Gulf, or a new center forms under that convection in the Bahamas. Cyclone1 (00:39 UTC -6/07/2007)


 * No, no, no, I'm wrong. It's not going into the Gulf. It's going into the Gulf Stream. The CMC model (42 hours out) deepens this low north of Bermuda to about a 1000-1004mbar. Low. Interesting? Cyclone1 (01:03 UTC -6/07/2007)


 * Probably non-tropical. -Winter123 06:05, 6 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, models are less bullish. Maybe something later, but nothing in the short term (24-36 hours out). Cyclone1 (01:53 UTC -7/07/2007)

AoI: Off NC coast
Very deep convection firing off. Looking persistent. Hint of a circulation. Thoughts? Cyclone1 (17:43 UTC -10/07/2007)
 * I think it's just a remnant of the storms that were pushing off the coast yesterday and today. Just a seabreeze storm. Anyway, temperatures are only ~26 degrees, shear is marginal,, around 15 knots and increasing. Overall, this thing has no chance, in my opinion. Cainer91 19:38, 10 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah, unless it hangs out for a few days, chances are low, just something to kill the boredom. Cyclone1 (22:53 UTC -10/07/2007)
 * If you are bored, check out Man-yi. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 03:43, 11 July 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Eastern Caribbean
This is the first peep out of the Atlantic TWO since Barry. Doesn't look like much right now, but unless it wants to go to Nicaragua, there's smooth sailin ahead of it. -- SkyFury 18:35, 19 July 2007 (UTC)
 * What about 96L? That was largely expected to form. Anyway, looks like a low is trying to form north of Hispaniola. Maybe a threat for FL or Bermuda if it recurves. Cyclone1 (01:35 UTC -21/07/2007)
 * Meh, never mind. It's raining like crazy over Haiti though. Cyclone1 (01:42 UTC -21/07/2007)

The NHC once again somewhat likes it. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 20:12, 21 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Avila seems to like it's odds.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. Cyclone1 (21:18 UTC -21/07/2007)

97L.INVEST
It's an Invest! Woo hoo, party! Cyclone1 (23:35 UTC -22/07/2007)
 * I don't expect this one to develop, but there are big changes in store in the next week or two. The trough that has been hanging around the Eastern Seaboard is scheduled to lift and be replaced with high pressure. Shear is also forcast to lessen greatly across the whole tropical Atlantic. All the signs are pointing to an active August, much like 2004. Cainer91 23:41, 22 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Actually, 97L is a sfc trough hanging out kinda stationary, so it's definitley not out of the question for a small sfc low to form anywhere along that boundary. I have a good feeling about this one... Cyclone1 (23:43 UTC -22/07/2007)
 * It looks pretty good, but it's being sheared from the west and it's running out of time. It will start to fell that cold water within the next 48 hours. I don't see this one ever getting a name. August and September are the most active months. I doubt the Atlantic will stay quiet too much longer. -- SkyFury 00:23, 23 July 2007 (UTC)


 * SHIPS has it at tropical storm strength in 24hrs. Cyclone1 (00:40 UTC -23/07/2007)

Wow, this storm is looking worse by the hour. Cyclone1 (02:46 UTC -23/07/2007)

NRL has it centered on the wrong storm! look just off the coast of NC, there's an LLC. That will go into NE in about 36 hrs maybe 40mph if it's lucky. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2007072212/slp6.png -Winter123 04:27, 23 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Simple coastal low. Chance of becoming tropical: slim to none. But, still cool. Cyclone1 (15:11 UTC -23/07/2007)


 * Earlier today, 97L kinda resembled Subtropical Derpession Tweny-Two in 2005. Comparison. Cyclone1 (15:57 UTC -23/07/2007)
 * Well, to quote Switchfoot... "Gone, like Frank Sinatra, like Elvis and his mom, like Al Pacino's cash, nothin lasts in this life!" So, yeah it's gone. Cyclone1 (22:40 UTC -23/07/2007)
 * Went north for the summer. -- SkyFury 14:51, 24 July 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Wave/Low off Africa
According to the TWD, a well defined low to mid level circulation is being observed with a tropical wave coming off the African coast. Moderate to strong convection. Might be interesting. Cyclone1 (00:58 UTC -22/07/2007)
 * No offense, but I have yet to be interested. I don't see much in here -- SkyFury 00:26, 23 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah, not much to look at now, but if that sfc low hangs on until tomorrow, we might be looking at 98L. Cyclone1 (00:41 UTC -23/07/2007)

I think this is the system to watch. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 03:39, 23 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Looks like the LLC kinda fizzled out last night. Convection is still there, though. Cyclone1 (15:59 UTC -23/07/2007)


 * This is insane! GFS closes off a low, and takes it all the way to the US coast before recurving it! Cyclone1 (23:26 UTC -23/07/2007)


 * Uh huh. I'll believe it when I see it. -- SkyFury 14:52, 24 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Not looking so farfetched anymore Cyclone1 (19:50 UTC -24/07/2007)

Convection's dying. Cyclone1 (15:17 UTC -25/07/2007)
 * As soon as I say convection's dying, it starts to refire around 30W and is looking a lot better. I love it. I'll shut up now. Cyclone1 (15:50 UTC -25/07/2007)


 * I still don't see anything worth looking at down there and I usually have a pretty good eye for tropical shenanegans. -- SkyFury 22:28, 25 July 2007 (UTC)


 * What I find intersting is the GFS model develops a tropical depression in 48hrs, and has done so every run since yesterday. The CMC and UKMET also sorta hint at something. I'm sure it's not picking up on this wave though (the 35W one), it's latching onto one of the other ones behind it. We'll see in 48hrs. Cyclone1 (22:37 UTC -25/07/2007)

AoI: Gulf of Mexico
This, however looks more substantial. It's got nowhere to go but into a wall of 30-knot shear though. The shear throughout the Gulf is stiffling right now. -- SkyFury 22:28, 25 July 2007 (UTC)
 * It's impressive, but I don't see this doing anything, it's sheered and fast moving towards land, and none of the major tropical models pick up on anything. It's worth noting, though, that a non-tropical model shows a TS moving into the upper Texas coast in about 84hrs. Cyclone1 (22:34 UTC -25/07/2007)
 * Lokking very impressive lately! I'm surprised it's not an invest.

ACE calculations
Should they be done here or at Wikipedia itself? I know that Andrea's ACE was 0.00 (unless it regenerates as fully tropical), but for future reference or if Andrea becomes an actual TS, where should it be? CrazyC83 00:55, 12 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I don't see why not. We could give updates here on how the ACE changes over time as the storm progresses, whereas Wikipedia probably would just give the final "high" ACE value.  Galaxy001talk 05:31, 12 May 2007 (UTC)

I have created the ACE calculations at Forum:2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season/ACE. CrazyC83 20:49, 12 May 2007 (UTC)

Given that last season we linked to ACE calculations, we should keep them on Wikipedia. – NSLE 02:54, 16 May 2007 (UTC)

Andrea a kickstarter
After a month-long, worldwide storm drought, Andrea appears to have kickstarted the tropics. There's a storm in the Bay of Bengal and a TSFA in the West Pacific. -- SkyFury 14:58, 15 May 2007 (UTC)

- Whoa, really? I haven't been able to keep up with the other seasons aside from the Atlantic. Lilac DownDeep 19:08, 15 May 2007 (UTC)


 * There's now another TSFA in the South Pacific. -- SkyFury 13:36, 16 May 2007 (UTC)


 * They are both named storms now. In addition, there are two very distinct lows in the Atlantic right now, one of them, in the Bahamas, (which is very convection rich), is predicted to become a "gale" (we all know what that means). Here is an image of the low. Interesting? Just throwing that out there. Cyclone1 (23:06 UTC -17/05/2007)
 * That low is 91L now (see above). Gales are extratropical systems. --Coredesat 18:03, 18 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I know, but look at all the gales that were found to be tropical cyclones in post analysis. And there was the 2004 gale, which probably could have. Looks like this one is a lost cause anyway. Cyclone1 (21:07 UTC -18/05/2007)
 * Look as hard as we might, there are going to be some storms that will never be found, by anyone. There are probably more than three storms that have occured in the South Atlantic over the past forty years. Some storms pose as extratropical but really have a warm core and a closed surface circulation. Some of the ones we've found here on Wikipedia using GIBBS are interesting but impossible to prove whether it's a tropical cyclone or not. Part of the fun, I guess. -- SkyFury 21:43, 23 May 2007 (UTC)

And what fun it is! Cyclone1 (17:00 UTC -24/05/2007)

Hey, just wanted to join in! I'm a FL panhandle native, and I followed and made some anonymous posts to the 2005 hurricane season talk page, when I was living in Pensacola. My apartment complex was bulls-eyed by Dennis. In 2006 I moved to southern Louisiana, and do some recovery work on the side. I was planning to join the Wikipedia discussions then, but was put off when we had to get more "serious". I found the death of those talk pages to be greatly annoying, especially considering the extremely high quality of articles that resulted (the 2005 season article is really top-notch). But alas, I understand their rules. I'm REALLY excited y'all started this up...I've already joined in the betting pools, and hope this page stays active. I see some familiar names here from the 2005 season already...hope Eric is here too somewhere. I want to let you know my predictions for strong storms and bad locations (NC/NYC, strong Gulf Storm) aren't "hopes" by any means, but rather fears in a post El Nino year. Anyway, looking forward to an active discussion board, and here's hoping for the best and being prepared for the worst! Gulf Coastie 02:24, 1 June 2007 (UTC)

NRL
What do you mean by NRL? - Patricknoddy Talk 19:25, 2 June 2007 (UTC)

Naval Research Lab here http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Jason Rees 19:34, 2 June 2007 (UTC)

INVEST reports
Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC)