Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Open Atlantic
Another new one associated with a tropical wave at 10/20. Development is a bit doubtful before it interacts with upper-level winds by the weekend. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Just archived July here and in the other forums, but the ATL is still sleeping right now. It'll pick up a bit later, just not this moment. Ryan1000 03:58, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now down to 10/10. I doubt this one would form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:04, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0. Still on the TWO though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 20:01, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Slightly Southwest of Where Emily Formed
A new AOI has popped up in the gulf. This AOI is only at 10/10, and though it probably won't become anything, I'm not discounting it after Emily formed so quickly in almost the same location. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:22, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 0/0, but like the AOI above, it is also still on the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!- 70.190.5.175 20:01, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

The Atlantic is sleeping again, but it should not sleep for much longer. It is likely that activity will explode after mid-August, and just having TSs that don't do much by this point in the year is common. In fact I think the season has been quite active so far, as many seasons (like 2004 and 2009 and many in the 20th century) were really inactive at the beginning (but many would end up very active, like 2004). For those new here, just having a lot of TSs that don't do much (or not much activity overall) by early August does not usually mean a pathetic season overall. Last year had its first in-season hurricane and second hurricane overall (at the "E" storm) form on this day after a dead July, and that season still got very active. 2015 was going pathetically, with only 3 TSs by this point (but it would end up as a near-average season). The best analogs to this season would be 2011 (whose 5th named storm formed today and had 8 TSs to start the season off before exploding) and 2006 (not counting Zeta, 4 TSs formed by this point in the year before the season exploded at the end of August and September; the season was still overall near-average though). Even 2010 and 2012 could be considered as analogs if not for Alex's and Chris' strength, as we are talking about all TSs by this point of the year. But beware, 2013 was also a good analog to this year (with 4 TSs compared to the 5 TSs and 1 TD so far this year, and both seasons had early MDR formations), and we know how that season turned out. No one knows how the current season will eventually turn out, but my gut feeling says an active season like last year is a good possibility. Let's just hope 2013 does not repeat itself this year. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:41, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging off Africa
Just after I wrote the above, I checked NHC to see a 10/30 tropical wave emerging off Africa. I think this is more likely to be a named storm than the other recent waves that popped up on the TWO (such as the 10/20 one that died out earlier). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:52, August 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Both the GFS and the Euro are already on board with this AOI. Although they don't expect this to become a particularly big storm (in size), they do make it a hurricane in the long run, the GFS taking it into the northeastern U.S, particularly Nantucket Island and Massachusetts, while the Euro moves it into the upper Lessers (Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico) before dying over Hispaniola. However, if the Euro's scenario pans out, this may need to be watched closer, because Irene of 2011 was also forecast to move over Hispaniola and die out, but it instead skipped north of the island and hit the U.S. east coast. While this is all still very far out, the Atlantic may definitely be kicking up again, starting with this wave. Ryan1000 02:50, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50. This is looking to be a Cape Verde-type hurricane in the coming days/weeks. Here comes Franklin (I hope). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:16, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is most definitely going to be Franklin. Unfortunately, this could be a bad storm. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:36, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/60. The Euro has backed off on this system with their latest run, instead showing a different storm forming in the BoC in a week, but the new run of the GFS takes this into Savannah, GA as a formidable major hurricane in the long run. If conditions remain favorable for this storm, it'll probably end up being a furious and compact, but intense, storm, and if the GFS does get this one accurate (unlike the AOI after TD 4 that they hyped early last month), then the U.S. might not get lucky from Franklin-to-be. Ryan1000 13:54, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
It's now been invested. 12Z GFS run now takes this recurving from the U.S. east coast into Atlantic Canada, but this is still a long ways out. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:41, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Things don't seem to be looking good with this - and could be our first hurricane of the season I think. Hopefully conditions will permit and we will get ourselves a pretty long lived fish storm to track across the Atlantic that doesn't bother anyone. Owen 18:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/70. I believe this will become Franklin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:24, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This thing just jumped to 40/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:48, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am really hoping that this is a fishspinner like Owen said. We do not need a devastating east coast hurricane. I have a feeling this will be Franklin and the Caribbean wave be Gert. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:51, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Currently 50/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * The last few runs of the GFS have been recurving this out to sea just before hitting the eastern U.S, which is fortunate and would make this look like a re-Earl (2010), but it's still a long ways out. The Euro is actually more enthusiastic about the Caribbean wave than this one. Ryan1000 12:59, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Future-Franklin should hopefully be a fishspinner and let's hope that GFS is right on their latest runs and it does not impact the east coast. This is likely to be the season's first hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:15, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 18Z GFS run on tropicaltidbits.com now shows this heading on a more southernly path, along the lines of what the Euro was predicting before, and skimming along the northern greater Antilles before turning north past the west coast of Florida and hitting Panama City as a category 2 or 3 hurricane. The Euro is still unenthusiastic about this, but that model tends to be far more conservative with MDR development, until a closed circulation gets going. HWRF also shows this becoming a strong hurricane, but that model is too agressive in long-range intensity forecasts for my liking. Ryan1000 23:41, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 40/70. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:23, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, seems the Euro is becoming right on this one. It's now down to 30/50. I still hope that we may see Gert from this in the long run though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:29, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 99L still has time to organize itself, but it would be nice to see a nice fish hurricane and not see a struggling tropical storm with every tropical wave that emerges off the coast of Africa. Owen 18:55, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Time's running out for this one. It's down to 20/50. Maybe this won't develop at all.... Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:43, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

And suddenly this flopped. Now down to 10/30. I feel that this won't even become a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:16, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well it's now down to 0/20. What an invest though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:02, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * What a flop tbh. This looked like it would develop earlier but I guess environmental conditions didn't really favor it. Maybe it could still have a chance at Gert in the very long run but I'm not sure about that happening. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:40, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS has completely dropped this storm, but the Euro has now been taking a more agressive approach to 99L once it reaches the eastern seaboard of the U.S. However, unless conditions improve there, this won't be anything more than a TS when it reaches there by next week, if that. Ryan1000 03:00, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now 0/30. This invest can really test someone's patience. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:06, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/50. Can 99L be a TD? Stay tuned. (Well to be honest I hope this eventually becomes Gert.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * This thing has persisted for quite a bit. Gert now looks likely by early next week. Glad it was not a complete flop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:49, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:16, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/40. This invest keeps on fluctuating. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:28, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/50. Please form now 99L... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:07, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

40/60. Expected to stay in the open Atlantic if it forms. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:00, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * This invest kinda reminds me of how Hermine from last year formed. Both this and Hermine are/were being tracked for more than a week. Hoping this invest finally gets its act together to become Gert although it might not be stronger than a TS due to lingering dry air. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:39, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:53, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * It has been organizing as of late and conditions are conducive for development. I do hope Gert comes from this, although I would like it to be stronger than a TS because I am kind of sick of them after the spree of TSs that occurred before Franklin. At least we're not seeing a re-2011 though (that season began with 8 TSs!) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:04, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * You're right, Steve. This is reminiscent of Hermine from last year. (Fun Fact: Hermine was also 99L before it formed!) Anyway, I hope this becomes Gert in 5 days. Lowkey hoping for it to become a hurricane though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:09, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * It could become Gert much sooner than that. Outlook is 80/80 and expect a TD by tonight or tomorrow. This should turn away from the U.S. and go in between the East Coast and Bermuda. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:16, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on Gert, please form and become a hurricane, but stay away from land! Don't know why, but because this storm is gonna be called Gert, I can't stop thinking about this guy here. Nah, I predict Gert will form within about 5 hours from now, SteazySteve. You can refer to me as Henriette. 169.51.72.247 00:33, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Now a TD, and expected to reach 65 mph. It seems to have plenty of hurricane potential but it will depend on how the dry air affects it. Otherwise it's in a low shear and warm water environment. C'mon future-Gert, please become a hurricane! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:30, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Not a storm yet, but it looks like Gert has arrived. Little trivia, if Gert somehow does manage to become a hurricane, it will be the first hurricane named Gert since 1999. That incarnation of Gert became a Category 4. I don't think this Gert will make it that far.... Leeboy100 Hello! 04:11, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Finally it became a TD. I hope this becomes Hurricane Gert in the long run (although the forecast only says it will peak as a high-end tropical storm). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pulling for future Gert to become the second hurricane of the season as well. But finally, after all this tracking - 99L forms. Owen 06:02, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This reminds me so much of 99L/Hermine of last year. #1: The resistance of becoming a tropical cyclone for two weeks. #2: Forming near the U.S. #3. Forecast to become a high-end tropical storm at first. Anyway, this will most likely be Gert. At the moment, this is heading WNW at 14 mph. This means that Gert will be edging ever so closely to the U.S. if this continues to happen. I don't think that this storm will directly impact the U.S., but the rip currents are something to watch for. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:19, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gert
AL, 08, 2017081318,, BEST, 0, 277N, 716W, 35, 1011, TS

7-1-0. Hello, Gert. Awaiting the upgrade in 5pm NHC advisory. Owen 19:54, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now finally Gert after waiting for so long. It is going to stay a TS until it becomes Post-Tropical. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:30, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally, it becomes Gert! It has an outside chance of becoming a weak C1 hurricane. Current intensity is 35 knots (40 mph)/1011 mbars. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:53, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally it became Gert. Kinda happy that this is going to be a fishspinner, but I hope this storm becomes a hurricane in the open waters of the Atlantic. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:20, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Greetings, Gert. Nice to see you. I'm really hoping Gert does manage to become a hurricane. Leeboy100 Hello! 22:23, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gert has strengthened to 45/1009. NHC forecasts Gert to now become the second hurricane of the season in 48-72 hours. Owen 02:40, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now Gert is 60 mph/1002 mbars. A hurricane is likely by tomorrow. The discussion says that HWRF forecasts a major hurricane, if only it could go that far! (Since it's a fishspinner we can root for this however we like) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:37, August 14, 2017 (UTC)

I know it won't happen, but since it's a fishspinner, I'm gonna root for Gert to explode and become a Category 5. In all seriousness, an eye is becoming clearly visible on the visible satellite. It likely will be a hurricane tomorrow, if not later tonight. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:00, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gert now just below hurricane status. I think she is going to reach hurricane status tonight. NHC now forecasts Gert to peak at around 90 mph, while the HWRF is still bullish on bringing this to a major hurricane. If that verified, I think that could make up for how long we had to wait to finally get a tropical cyclone out of 99L. Owen 21:08, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gert now has a shot to be a high-end C2 hurricane. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 21:11, August 14, 2017 (UTC)

Don't know if it's just a glitch by The Weather Channel, but they keep saying the next advisory will be at 11 PM EDT, completely skipping the 8 o'clock advisory. Is this just a glitch by TWC, or is the 8 PM advisory just being skipped? Leeboy100 Hello! 23:28, August 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * No, it's not a glitch @Leeboy100. Gert is a nonaffecting tropical storm, therefore no warnings or watches have been issued, and thus we get advisories every 6 hours. (5 am, 11 am, 5 pm, 11 pm). Owen 00:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Oh, yeah. That's right. I've gotten so used to the 3-hour advisories since the storms that have been the most memorable in recent years have affected land. My bad. Leeboy100 Hurricane Dean, 2007-2017 00:38, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * AL, 08, 2017081500,, BEST, 0, 308N, 723W, 65, 986, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1013, 140, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, but, BUT... I actually won't be surprised if the 11pm advisory keeps Gert as a strong TS instead of going ahead with the upgrade to hurricane status. Storm's looking a wee bit more sickly than it did a few hours ago. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:14, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * It should be a hurricane any moment now. 70 mph/992 mbar is the current intensity. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:51, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Gert
Huh, looks like NHC did confirm the upgrade. Forecast peak intensity raised to 90 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:45, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * 2nd hurricane overall of the season, and might be about to become our first major? Owen 02:49, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Now official, we now have our second hurricane of the season. Leeboy100 Hurricane Dean, 2007-2017 03:01, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * The second hurricane of the season, Gert may be a Category 2 hurricane. Intensity is at 75 mph/986 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:38, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with Dylan, Gert actually looked a bit better when it was a tropical storm earlier, the northern part of the storm seems to have eroded lately. Regardless, it could pick up some intensity as it moves faster out to sea, since a faster speed means shear might get lower on it, but SST's will gradually decrease too, so Gert shouldn't get too strong. Ryan1000 05:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory raises Gert to 80 mph/981 mbars and it is forecast to reach 90 mph. Shear should lessen compared to last night, so it would give this storm more room to strengthen during the next couple of days. Glad to see it become another hurricane and I won't be surprised if Gert can manage C2 intensity. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:47, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now the latest advisory raises the intensity to 85 mph/979 mbar, becoming the strongest storm of the season so far. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:35, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 90 miles per hour now with a pressure of 975 millibars. This might have a small chance to become a weak Category two! After this, Gert will pass just north, if not, make landfall on the UK as an extra-tropical storm Monday. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:09, August 16, 2017 (UTC) PS: The next NHC advisory comes out in two hours.
 * ATCF says we have a Cat 2!! AL, 08, 2017081618,, BEST, 0, 382N, 641W, 85, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:08, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Sigh Bad news everyone, I'm hearing from multiple sources that Gert has claimed a victim. A swimmer was killed by Gert in North Carolina. I'm not hearing exactly what happened though, either the swimmer was pulled out to sea by a rip current or drowned by a big wave. Meanwhile, Gert still remains the same, winds of 90 mph, pressure of 975, and the next advisory comes out in about an hour. Leeboy100 Hurricane Dean, 2007-2017 19:56, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

Update: That fatality has been confirmed, and it's sadder than I thought. What happened was a swimmer ended up getting caught in a rip current. Then, a man, 63 years old, came to his rescue. The other swimmer was able to escape, but unfortunately, the man who came to his rescue was swept out to sea, and found dead. It's always sad when something like this happens, when someone comes to the rescue of another person, and ends up getting killed in the process. A very tragic event, and my thoughts go out to the family and friends of the victim. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 20:11, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * I am sorry to hear this tragic news in relation to Gert. My condolences go out to that victim and his family. :( Anyway, Gert is officially a C2 by NHC. It may be able to squeeze in a tiny bit more intensity before unfavorable conditions begin a rapid weakening phase tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:44, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * He sacrificed his life to save his/her life. Sorry to hear this but RIP. Anyway, the intensity is at 100 mph/970 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:49, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * ATCF says Gert is now at 90 kts/967 mbar now. Looks like Gert will peak right where it was originally forecast to (105 mph). Owen 01:18, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * And the NHC followed suit. 90 kn/967 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:28, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * And Gert is now weakening. It's down to 85 kn/968 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Weakening further, 70 kn/ 975 mbar, now a Category 1. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 15:06, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gert
Now post-tropical. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:48, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Goodbye Gert, it was fun tracking you. As one door closes, another one opens. Or in this case, when one storm dies, another one forms. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 21:08, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sigh I don't believe it. Unfortunately another one just drowned due to rip currents of the hurricane again. The death toll is now at 2. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:53, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * This storm dissipated quite rapidly but was pretty nice to track. However, these deaths were unfortunate. I'd have to say the one that died saving another person was a hero. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
We have ourselves another area to watch. I think the race to become Franklin is definitely on, with an edge for 99L currently. This newly invested area is something models have been picking up on in the Caribbean and Bay of Campeche and could be a potent threat considering conditions have been becoming much more favorable in the Caribbean. Owen 18:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at 10/20 on the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 20/40. This may become Gert. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:48, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be something like Harvey (2011) or Earl from last year. I'm calling it, this will be Gert. It better not be anything destructive. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:55, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/50. This has a shot of becoming Gert. Hi!-68.106.0.77 06:08, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks like it'll be a BoC spinup, but the global models are making this stronger than a mere TS, and this might even become a minimal hurricane in the GoM down the road. Ryan1000 13:07, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * It could be that, but I think that it could also be a re-Harvey or Earl and develop before the Yucatan landfall. I don't think this one will end up as stronger than a minimal hurricane (C1 at most). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:18, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 30/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:23, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 40/60 per latest NHC release. This may become a TD first before 99L above. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:29, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm beginning to think this one is winning the race to become Franklin. Owen 18:55, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 50/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:00, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * With this now higher than 99L (which is down to 30/50), it's entirely possible this one might become Franklin and 99L will become Gert, or not develop at all before unfavorable conditions take hold in the middle of next week for 99L. Ryan1000 00:03, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now to 60/80. Hi!-68.106.0.77 06:32, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Increased to 80/90. Here comes TD 7 (Franklin). Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:24, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven
According to ATCF, we now have Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven. There has been 2 calls in the last hour between Mexico's meteorogical service and the NHC to begin coordinating tropical storm warnings. Advisories will begin at 5 pm accordingly and also worth noting that pressures are starting to fall in the area. I think Franklin will be here very soon. Owen 20:04, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin
It's official. 90L has defeated 99L to the race to become Franklin. Since we have our 6th named storm now, it's worth noting that 4 other years had 6 named storms at this point: 1936, 1959, 2005 and 2012. All four of those years were active. Owen 02:59, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is currently not forecast to go above TS strength as it is expected to move across the Yucatan and into mainland Mexico, and if it doesn't become a hurricane, then we'll have the first 6 named storms this year not become hurricanes. Interestingly enough, the last time this list was used (in 2011) also had the first 6 (eventually 8) named storms not become hurricanes as well. However, the season is still ramping up, and we could see stronger, longer-lasting storms later on this year. Ryan1000 04:28, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * 45 mph, 1005 mb. Hurricane watch issued from Chetumal to Punta Allen in Mexico. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:56, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 50 mph/1004 mbar. Franklin is pulling together very quickly. At this rate, Franklin could be a hurricane before landfall. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:50, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60 mph/999 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 7, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory out, and nothing has changed. Well, almost. It's now moving West-Northwest at 13, instead of 14, so that's something. Leeboy100 Hello! 17:55, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin looks like he's developing an eye. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sudden jump to hurricane strength before landfall. This could be a re-Earl, unfortunately. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:22, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Didn't really expect this to be Franklin due to the other system out in the open Atlantic looking better when this was just an eastern Caribbean wave. I hope to see the season's first hurricane as long as it does not be a re-Earl, Karl or even Stan. We could really use a hurricane right now, as I am getting sick of all the TS's. Remember how 2011 had 8 TS's to start the season? If this does not be a hurricane, we have a re-2011 on our hands. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:45, August 7, 2017 (UTC)

This may not become a hurricane before landfall, but the NHC is now almost certain that Franklin will be a hurricane after it emerged back into the Gulf. Forecast takes it up to hurricane strength after that point. It's very likely that we will have Hurricane Franklin. Which would be the first time the name 'Franklin' would be used for a hurricane. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:03, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is now moving due northwest instead of west-northwest, so it may have much more time over the open waters of the GoM than previously anticipated. I didn't expect Franklin's organization and track to change as fast as it did today, and if Franklin does what Karl did in 2010 and keeps its organization as it crosses the Yucatan, then it could become a very powerful storm in the GoM. Ryan1000 21:24, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is still 60 mph but the pressure is 995 mbar, and it's about to make landfall soon. Northerly shear will increase a bit when it moves in the BOC which could be enough to prevent it from RIing. I think, at most, it could reach C2 intensity before the mainland Mexico landfall. A major might even be possible if organization remains completely intact through the crossing. ~  <font face="Impact"> Steve     Talk Page  My Edits  📧   02:56, August 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh no, this is going to be bad for Veracruz. It's currently 325 miles east-northwest of Veracruz. It's getting close to be making landfall at the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for most of the Yucatan Peninsula, Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Mexico (Chetumal to Campeche), and Hurricane Watches are in effect for some of the mainland Mexico. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:51, August 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * It made landfall already on the Yucatan Peninsula and it's currently moving over it. The intensity is down to 45 mph/999 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:30, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * This can be a minimal C1 or a strong 70 mph tropical storm. For now, NHC expects this to remain at tropical storm intensity. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:05, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Despite Franklin's winds decreasing, it has maintained its organization as it crossed the Yucatan; however NHC now expects some moderate shear to exist north of the storm after it emerges over water again, which should inhibit any significant strengthening in the BoC from Franklin. Ryan1000 21:44, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * And now a hurricane warning is in effect for Veracruz. NHC now expects Franklin to become a hurricane before landfall. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:50, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh no, this is going to be bad for Veracruz. It is currently  <span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:"HelveticaNeue",Helvetica,"NimbusSansL",Arial,"LiberationSans",sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;">about 325 miles (525 km) east-northwest of V eracruz. It will be the first hurricane of the season once it's a Category 1 hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:00, August 9, 2017 (UTC) P.S. Be prepared  Veracruz!


 * Franklin now 60 mph/994 mbar. He's headed toward taking the title as first hurricane of the season. I will say, however, he reminds me an awful lot like Karl. Owen 07:11, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 65 mph, 994 mb. Can become 80 mph before landfall. I hope this won't be a repeat of Karl '10 and Earl '16, or even Ingrid '13, Alex '10, Stan '05 and Roxanne '95. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I had the feeling it was going to keep its organization crossing the Yucatan, but it probably doesn't have enough time to RI as fast as Karl did in September 2010. Still, I'd be surprised if Franklin doesn't become a hurricane for the first time later today. Ryan1000 09:12, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 60 kts/987 mbar now, officially displaces Arlene as the strongest storm of the season so far by pressure. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:54, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70 mph, 985 mbar. Franklin is almost certain to become a hurricane in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:46, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Franklin is being extremely stubborn! Franklin is now at 70 mph/984 mbar. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:21, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 18z ATCF is calling Franklin a hurricane!!! AL, 07, 2017080918,, BEST, 0, 201N, 944W, 65, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FRANKLIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, One this is confirmed by the NHC, we'll officially have not only the first hurricane of the 2017 AHS, but the first-ever Hurricane Franklin. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:53, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

I spy with my little eye, a little eye trying to form. I don't know how Franklin is still just a tropical storm, though. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:06, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Kinda shocked that it is still a tropical storm. Ugh, Franklin gives me agony; why is he still 70 mph? Anyway, NHC still expects Franklin to become a hurricane before landfall. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:25, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Franklin
The aforementioned ATCF intensity has been confirmed by the NHC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:43, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Upgraded. History has now been made, the first ever Hurricane Franklin. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Glad to see Franklin become a hurricane, for the first time on record! :D Hopefully, Veracruz and surrounding areas don't receive much destruction. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:47, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 984 mb. Finally reached the 75 mph mark. Expected to hit Veracruz as an 85 mph C1. (Sidenote: I just noticed that Franklin's track is similar to Diana (1990). I hope Franklin won't be as bad as that hurricane.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:51, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

I do see an eye trying to pop out on the visible satellite imagery, this was upgraded to a hurricane just in time. To be honest, Franklin's structure kind of reminds me of Hermine last year, except going the opposite direction. I'm hoping that this isn't a re-Stan or re-Earl, because it's going to affect the exact same areas. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Diana was a huge hurricane when she hit Mexico, much bigger than Franklin, and some northernly shear should keep Franklin from intensifying too much before landfall north of Veracruz tonight. Still, even if he doesn't get past category 1 intensity, flooding and mudslides will be a threat to Mexico, as we saw from the high death toll of Earl last year. Ryan1000 21:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Gaining steam, unfortunately. Winds now up to 85 mph. This is getting very scary, it's actually stronger than Stan was when it made landfall. I really hope it doesn't intensify any further. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's kinda took the same path as 1990's Diana. Diana got retired due to the impacts that it made. Stan, which is a deadly storm got retired too. Other storms that took nearly similar path as Franklin avoided retirement. Earl is kinda deadly (106 deaths) but it's not retired. Karl is the costliest storm to strike Veracruz (<span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:"HelveticaNeue",Helvetica,"NimbusSansL",Arial,"LiberationSans",sans-serif;font-size:14.4px;font-weight:normal;">$5.6 billion) but avoided retirement. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:54, August 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * And Franklin has made landfall as a C1. I hope the impacts aren't that severe. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:26, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin (2nd time)
Down to a TS over Mexico, should die later today. Ryan1000 10:08, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin
RIP, gone. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:38, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

I really hope the impacts aren't too severe. Goodbye Franklin. Leeboy100 Hello! 18:47, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

It appears that Franklin has caused no deaths as of now (according to Wikipedia). Damage could have been a bit extensive though, because seeing from this, plenty of losses were reported in eastern Mexico. Homes were damaged, banana plantations were impacted and other impacts occurred. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:44, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Bahamas
And NHC spots a new AOI. Not expected to form though; it's currently at 10/10. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:26, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * I mean, there might still be a tiny chance it could form (remember Emily, and also to a more surprising extent, Jose 2011?). This thing looks like a random AOI that won't develop for now, but we can't rule out sudden development. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:52, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * You are right, Steve. However 99L can eat this up (it's relatively close to 99L's expected path). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:00, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Went off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:45, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Off Africa
Another wave is emerging off of Africa, this is at 0/20 for now, but both of the global models are already picking up on this. GFS makes this a formidable hurricane moving off of or making landfall on the U.S. east coast, while the Euro takes this farther south, passing through the straits of Florida and into the GoM as a strong hurricane. It may be 10 days out, but if both of them agree on this becoming something serious, this may be a big storm to watch out for in the long run. Ryan1000 10:04, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This will probably be the first major of the season. This one will be one to watch as it comes near the U.S. We don't need a re-Irene or a Floyd. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:07, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Future Harvey will be one to watch. It would actually be interesting if Gert became a hurricane and future Harvey did as well. There's been two Hurricane Harvey's - one being a C1 and the other being a C4. Maybe something in between for this incarnation if conditions permit. Owen 19:59, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:27, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks a bit concerning in the long run. The models that Ryan mentioned look scary and we should stay tuned on how future-Harvey might pan out. This could have a pretty likely chance at being this season's first major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:56, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now this AOI is a matter of concern. The Euro takes this to the Antilles and to Florida (and eventually to GoM), while the GFS takes this to the eastern seaboard of the U.S., but will eventually make landfall in Nova Scotia. I want future Harvey to become a major, but I hope this won't become a re-Irene/Floyd, or even a re-Igor/Juan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:18, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
It's a possibility that the Atlantic could end up with four hurricanes in a row. Franklin became a hurricane, Gert is likely to become one, and the Euro and its ensembles indicate that 91L and the wave after it (future Harvey, then Irma?) could become hurricanes. Atlantic should jump above average soon in ACE. Last time that happened was in 2012 (Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine) which was later in the season which makes it all the more interesting. Owen 14:40, August 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is going to get pretty interesting...what if the Atlantic was aware that I was sick of the continuous TSs before Franklin? 😝 This basin is going to explode looks like. Here comes another active season. This AOI is up to 20/60 BTW and Harvey could be a big one. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:41, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * The two global models have backed off on this in their latest runs, although it's been upped 30/60, but they're getting more hyped on the wave behind it. Either way, the Atlantic is definitely going to be heating up in the next week or two. Ryan1000 05:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Conditions will become less favorable once it moves to the Caribbean Sea. It has 2 days before Friday to become something. I personally want Harvey to come from the 0/20 wave over Africa because that one has plenty of room to become something significant (but hopefully not destructive). This wave and the one behind it will only be TSs at most, that is, if they develop. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:51, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now this also became 30/40. Whoever wins this race will be TD 9 — not sure if Harvey though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:42, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 40/50. NHC no longer mentions any unfavorable conditions though. If this can survive any potentially unfavorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, a big threat may loom. :/ Also, I can see every one of these AOIs potentially developing into named storms. This one can become as strong as a hurricane (depending on the eastern Caribbean environment), the wave behind it might only be a TS due to unfavorable conditions north of the Lessers and the one that just moved off Africa has the biggest chance at being the season's first major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:50, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/60. It has a chance to become Harvey once it's a TS. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:42, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 60/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:31, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80/90, Harvey should be coming from this AOI. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:18, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
NHC says they will start issuing advisories on this storm, potential tropical cyclone nine, at 11AM EDT. Ryan1000 14:07, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hello Nine. It will be likely to be a TS and a hurricane. I won't be surprised if this gets stronger. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Current NHC forecast makes it a cat 1 landfall in Belize, in part due to it's expected rapid movement through the Caribbean, but if it can slow down it might have more time to get stronger than cat 1 intensity, which Earl of last year and Franklin a week ago couldn't do. Ryan1000 15:39, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * And (Steve) Harvey is almost here. (Or maybe Irma, if the other invest miraculously forms faster than this one; highly unlikely though.) This storm reminds me of Ernesto in 2012. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:41, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey
Now a TS! Winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1004 mbar. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:50, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

(Edit conflict) Officially upgraded! I said greetings to Gert, so now I'll say hello to Harvey. Unfortunately it's heading towards Mexico, similar to where Franklin did. This could be trouble. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 20:55, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

This is somewhat off-topic, but a meteorologist at The Weather Channel made a slip-up while announcing the formation of Harvey, that I found amusing. "We have a brand new Tropical Storm Harvey, it's name............. is Harvey, in case you didn't hear me the first time." I don't think it was really necessary to post on here, but it's just something I found amusing that I wanted to share. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 22:14, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's no longer forecast to become a hurricane, as it's expected to pass closer to Honduras before eventually hitting Belize, and conditions are somewhat unfavorable in it's path, both of the global models see Harvey entraining dry air and weakening, or even dissipating, in the central Caribbean. Ryan1000 22:32, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the Windward Islands. Sorry to say but I doubt this would become a hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:49, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this survives the shear, this actually has a small chance of becoming a hurricane when it enters favorable conditions in the western Caribbean. But that will depend on how much land it encounters when there. There's a slight chance it could move a bit north of Honduras instead of landfalling there, and that would make hurricane status more likely. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:55, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Neither of the global models or the HWRF seem to make Harvey particularly strong as it moves through the Caribbean due to shear coming from the ULL that's also expected to stop 92L from developing, and some dry air from South America being entrained into Harvey's circulation. However, the GFS and HWRF do make Harvey somewhat stronger, if not possibly exploding, over the favorable conditions in the BoC after it crosses the Yucatan. In fact, the GFS expects steering currents to be weak by that time and Harvey could get fairly strong there if it doesn't immediately move towards a second landfall in mainland Mexico after striking northern Honduras and Belize. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey is still the same (40 mph/1005 mbar). It will struggle until Sunday (which is also my birthday BTW :D) and after that time, it could really intensify. If it survives the shear and dry air well, a hurricane seems likely when it is near Belize and the Yucatan. I'm a bit unsure if this will actually survive to the BOC intact due to all the land in its way. If it goes a bit more southern than the forecast, this could landfall in Honduras or even northern Nicaragua which, along with the Yucatan, will prevent it from reaching the BOC. The cut-off low in the Gulf of Mexico mentioned in the discussion could prevent it from going that much south though. If the track shifts more northern I could see a stronger version of Franklin or even a re-Karl in the BOC being possible. Right now, Harvey reminds me of Ernesto ('12) except it likely won't reach C2 status before the Yucatan. This might be like a hybrid of Ernesto and Karl ('10) if it does reach the BOC intact and explode. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * A headlong landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua and not reaching the BoC at all is looking less likely at this point. Harvey's latest NHC forecast track is showing what the GFS was showing before, steering currents are expected to weaken drastically when it crosses the Yucatan, and the shear currently over Harvey is expected to weaken significantly by that time as well. In their forecast discussion, NHC even states the possibility of Harvey reaching (or very nearing) hurricane intensity before it hits the Yucatan. The dissipation in the open Caribbean by the Euro is in part forecast due to Harvey's rapid forward speed of 21 mph, but if Harvey can hold together for a few more days at that speed, it'll slow down and be over less shear in the area by the Yucatan and BoC. In fact, the 00Z GFS turns Harvey as far north as the Texas/Mexico border and becoming a fairly strong hurricane in the GoM. Ryan1000 10:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey has weakened to 35 kt/1007 mbar. Harvey could be sheared apart before getting to the Yucatan. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 16:38, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * The NHC notes that windspeed could be generous in the discussion. This could degenerate back to a wave if it becomes even more disorganized. I would give a 50/50 chance of it surviving to Sunday night intact. In fact, that chance might be even lower if I'm overestimating Harvey. After it goes through that shear, a hurricane could occur right before the Yucatan landfall. I'm a bit concerned for Mexico and Belize and what impacts Harvey could do there in the long run (especially even further out when it could move onshore mainland Mexico from the Gulf or BOC). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:33, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey
(Un)fortunately, shear has not been kind to Harvey these past few days. Even though the system will be entering a more favorable environment within the next day per the NHC, I will not be surprised if Harvey is already a tropical wave. Winds have decreased to 30 knots (35 mph), with the pressure remaining at 1007 mbar (hPa). As a matter of fact, given how fast the now-depression is moving to the west, it may not even take full advantage of the conditions ahead of it. For those who are curious, no watches or warnings have been issued for Mexico or Central America yet because it is plausible that Harvey may simply degenerate into a tropical wave, as I acknowledged earlier. At most, I am expecting Harvey to attain winds of 50 knots (60 mph), with a pressure of ~999 mbar (hPa). Steve, in order for Harvey to even reach the Yucatán Peninsula coastline, it will have to face 30 to 50 knots of wind shear. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:11, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Harvey
lol.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:43, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well that was a flop. Can't say I was entirely surprised though, Harvey was moving so fast through the Caribbean that it wasn't entirely unexpected it could open into a wave, Chantal '13 did that too. It still could regenerate later on though, but it won't get strong if it does at this point. Ryan1000 03:09, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'd say it failed to last longer than the forecast. Hopefully Harvey will be used for a much stronger and long-lasting storm. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:12, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh well... but as Ryan says, I wouldn't be surprised if it came back next week, albeit as a weak system. Kiewii 04:00, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's on the TWO now. It's at 30/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:36, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Convection appears to be refiring. NHC gives it 50/60, and recon is scheduled to investigate. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:43, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 50/70. I hope it regenerates somehow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:15, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * It probably will due to a favorable environment in the western Caribbean. The degeneration of Harvey did not really surprise me. That shear was just a bit too powerful for a weak tropical storm to handle, and it's quick forward speed didn't help either. I could see a stronger TS occurring right before the Yucatan landfall if it regenerates by tomorrow and takes advantage of the more favorable environment . P.S. Wish me a happy birthday. :D ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:17, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80. Not sure if this regenerates. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:11, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Most models show this making landfall as a moderate TS to strong C1 somewhere between Tampico and Corpus Christi by next week. This spells trouble for both Eastern Mexico and Texas. Still 50/80, by the way. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:18, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70/90 and will likely regenerate by tonight or at latest, tomorrow before it moves onshore onto the Yucatan. Even if it doesn't redevelop before the landfall, the Gulf of Mexico is conducive for regeneration and/or strengthening. I hope the people in Eastern Mexico/southern Texas prepare for this... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:16, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey is currently passing over the Yucatán Peninsula. The 00z ECMWF shows it slamming into Corpus Christi, doing a loop and whacking Galveston before dissipating over Arkansas. HWRF and its counterpart HWRF-P aren't much better, showing high-end C2 landfalls at Corpus Christi and Tampico respectively. HMON shows similar intensity but brings it into the sparsely-populated Texas-Tamaulipas border. Even the 06z GFS has enthusiastically jumped on the bandwagon and now shows a major hitting Texas. If Harvey manages to pull itself together this quickly, either Texas or Tamaulipas is in for deep trouble. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:39, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 90/near 100. An interesting excerpt from the TWO: "Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend." Never before do I think I have seen the NHC mention the possibility of a system bringing hurricane impacts to an area before the system in question even (re-)formed as a tropical cyclone. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:20, August 22, 2017 (UTC)

Now 100/100. Basically almost guaranteed to reform. But it's not being upgraded because it doesn't have a closed center yet. And they're saying it will likely be a hurricane. Okay, then. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 21:24, August 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Um, I'm seeing it as 90/100. This might redevelop to a TD or TS as soon as tonight. A hurricane is looking possible and those in the path (from northeastern Mexico to southwestern Louisiana) should prepare themselves. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:10, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey pretty likely to redevelop. I hope it attains hurricane status before its landfall. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:56, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I mean... it would be cool to see the first Hurricane Harvey since 1993... but is this really the kind of situation where we want a storm to become a hurricane? When it's threatening land? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:33, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed. 68, I wouldn't wish for a hurricane in this situation. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:45, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Ex-Harvey seems to be taking a northward turn and there's a good chance it could become a hurricane before hitting the Texas coast, likely near Corpus Christi, because it will slow down as it approaches land so it has more time to intensify, and prolonged rains will cause flood threats in Texas, as well as surrounding areas in northeastern Mexico and southwestern Louisiana. Let's just hope Harvey (when it comes back) doesn't get too strong before its upcoming Texas landfall. Ryan1000 02:16, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Advisories will likely be initiated at 10 p.m. CDT, two hours from now. The TWO mentions a possibility of a hurricane watch being issued. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:52, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Redevelopment extremely likely at this moment with a chance of hurricane status. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey (2nd time)
And NHC will issue advisories again at 10 PM CDT. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:45, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Per latest advisory, a lot of watches were issued. A storm surge watch is in effect for Port Mansfield to High Island a hurricane watch for north of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Boca De Catan in Mexico to Port Mansfield in Texas, and north of San Luis Pass to High Island. This is becoming a significant weather event for Texas and northeast Mexico, but for now Harvey is forecast to peak at 70 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:54, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks like a major flooding threat to Texas, due to the forecast stalling it over southeastern Texas. I hope it is not too destructive there. A hurricane could be really possible before landfall so they must prepare themselves. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:27, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is taking a similar path to Bret of 1999, combined with Allison. The way it is moving northward towards Texas is much like Bret, and the stalling over Texas is much like Allison. This is not looking good, and if this is true, we could be looking at the worst hurricane in Texas since Ike. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:47, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey won't get anywhere near as strong as Bret did in 1999 (cat 1 is probably as far as it'll go), but it's larger size and slower movement could mean a lot of flooding in southeastern Texas, even though the worst of Harvey should remain west of the Houston area. Despite that, this isn't something to be taken lightly and it could be damaging for the region this weekend. Ryan1000 23:24, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hello Harvey (again). It isn't forecasted to be a hurricane yet... but, hurricane watches are in effect just in case Harvey intensifies into a hurricane. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 23:31, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

I'm hearing that some areas in Texas may see up to 3 feet of rain from Harvey. New Orleans could also see heavy rain, not Katrina-like (obviously), but this is looking like a really bad situation may be unfolding. Leeboy100 Andrew, 25 (1992-2017) 02:06, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * The latest U.S. rainfall forecast sees Texas getting drenched from Harvey. We may see even 15 inches of rainfall there. This is slowly becoming a big threat for TX, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:19, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey is still not a TS yet as of the latest advisory. Maybe the struggle has something to do with the depression's relatively disorganized structure. Texas really needs to prepare for a major flood event which could potentially unfold. This gives me a reminder of Allison from 2001 and I really hope Harvey is not that bad. A hurricane still looks very possible; the Hurricane Center is now forecasting one. But we should not wish for a hurricane, for obvious reasons. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:11, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey (2nd time)
Back up to TS status. 40 mph/1002. Pressure is pretty low in correlation with the winds. At some point I think the winds will catch up and over the warm waters of the Gulf, Harvey has the potential to pull some surprises and I think that if he goes through RI, you absolutely cannot rule out this thing becoming our first major and potentially the first major hurricane landfall in the U.S. since Wilma, which is what the HWRF has been depicting. I have a bad feeling. Owen 04:52, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Forecast shows now a hurricane as it hits Texas. This is going to be bad for them. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 05:29, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * The landfall location has also shifted farther south, towards the Corpus Christi area (which hasn't seen a direct hit from a hurricane since category 3 Celia of 1970), but coastal impacts probably won't be as bad as inland flooding from Harvey, since it's winds won't be as high as the rain it'll bring. Ryan1000 06:07, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * The advisory from 5AM EDT (4AM CDT) has knocked Harvey's pressure down to 995 mbars, but Harvey's organization has dramatically improved over the past few hours and NHC notes that the 45 mph windspeed estimate is likely conservative; recon is currently en route to investigate Harvey. The NHC forecast now expects an 85 mph hurricane, with hurricane warnings now in effect for Texas, and the track forecast now takes Harvey making landfall, but after landfall he's expected to reverse direction and move back over the GOM as the ridge and steering currents collapse, meaning Harvey could be the first storm since Allison to make landfall in Texas and move back over the GOM again. To make matters worse, the NHC's SHIPS model indicates a staggering 45% chance that Harvey could undergo rapid intensification before landfall. You're right Owen, Harvey is rapidly pulling itself together and it could become a hurricane as soon as tonight at this rate, and possibly a cat 2 or even 3 before making landfall in Texas on Saturday. But anything past cat 3 is probably too far, though I am impressed Harvey managed to get itself together this fast. Ryan1000 10:27, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * God damn, 8 am advisory has him even higher at 65/986. We know what Ike did as a Cat 2, Harvey could be worse for Texas if stronger on top of the stalling and flooding. Today should be the last day to prepare in Texas and if told to evacuate hopefully they do do it, fill up on gas, get their prescriptions filled if need be and have many days of extra food and water. Harvey is outperforming ALL of the models at this stage. It's been a long time since we saw a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone in the GOM headed for the states. Side note, GFS now brings Harvey down to 940 mbar at landfall! That would be catastrophic, and he'd be joining Don as a retirement contender. I'm seeing a really bad situation building for Texas here if these trends continue. Owen 12:14, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * 15 milibar pressure drop in only 6 hours? Woah! If that keeps up, Harvey will be at 941 mbars in the next 18 hours, which would be roughly a category 4 storm. Looks like this might have a chance to become as strong as Bret '99 after all. Owen, I don't think Don will be retired just because the U.S. president has his name, we saw how Bill was used in 1997 while Bill Clinton was our president at the time, and Bill wasn't retired, so Don probably won't either. But Harvey is rapidly looking like it could be a serious contender for retirement due to impact, and he could even end the record 12-year drought the U.S. has had without any major hurricane landfalls at the rate he's going. Corpus Christi also might see their first major hurricane in 47 years if Harvey gets as strong as the GFS is anticipating. Ryan1000 13:16, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

(←) Recon coming in for another center pass. Previous pass was 55-60 knots, 984 mbars. I won't be surprised if Harvey does become our first USA major hurricane landfall since 2005. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:11, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Storm Surge Watches and Warnings are in effect for Texas in <span style="background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;font-size:15.2px;font-variant-ligatures:inherit;font-variant-caps:inherit;">P <span style="background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;font-size:15.2px;font-variant-ligatures:inherit;font-variant-caps:inherit;">ort Mansfield to San Luis Pass . Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the same area. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 14:28, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Speak of the devil, I was right. NHC now forecasts Harvey to be a major hurricane when he makes landfall on the coast. Owen 14:57, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Pain in the ass to my family this storm is. Father and his fiance were supposed to head down to Corpus Christi this weekend to help her mother move to the state of Maine. Looks like this is not going to be happening now. Seems hesitant not to go since booked time off from work but I told him that this is going to be a major event for the city and state and not worth it to go right now. Feel back because she is going to probably have to evacuate away from her home which could very well get damaged. --Whiplash (talk) 15:55, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also it is quite possible this storm could intensify into a Cat 4 and a weak 5 would not be impossible. (Although unlikely at the moment) Not sure seen this kind of RI in a system in the Gulf since Rita in 2005. --Whiplash (talk) 16:15, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't want to induce panic, but it's best to be prepared for the worst and to hope for the best. If anyone is still unaware how incredibly dangerous this situation could possibly be, we could be looking at the storm that dethrones Katrina from the #1 spot of the most costliest hurricanes of all time. The thought of a potential Category 4+ hurricane making landfall along with it potentially dropping Alison-esque rain totals is very hard to process, this could certainly well be possible. If Harvey feeds off the brown ocean effect and maintains a strong intensity inland, it's going to be bad. Owen 16:39, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Harvey
Update statement just released, 70 kts/981 mbar. Special advisory to follow shortly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:58, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Gah you beat me by a few minutes. Well damn, that happened faster than I thought. Upped to 80 mph/981 mbars as recon investigated Harvey. This thing is absolutely exploding right now and the folks near Corpus Christi better start evacuating. Ryan1000 17:01, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is getting to be one highly dangerous storm. Harvey looks to be on track to be among the costliest hurricanes ever if the forecast of it becoming a major and stalling over Texas pans out. This is one of the scariest Atlantic storms I've tracked along with Sandy and Matthew. I hope Texas is prepared for this potentially cataclysmic hurricane and all evacuations, etc. should now be finishing up. Combine Allison-esque stalling over Texas, and a major hurricane, and you got what could be one of the most horrible storms in U.S. history unfolding. Wouldn't even be very surprised if the eventual damage rivals or even exceeds Katrina. I'm just so scared about this. 😰 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC update released, 85 mph/979 mbar. Now expected to reach winds of 125 mph prior to landfall. If this thing becomes anything further, we have our first C4 landfall in the U.S. since Charley in 2004. Owen 17:51, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * The correct term to describe this storm for Texas would probably be, um...Harvegeddon. But with winds increasing this fast, it's possible it could be a major hurricane by tonight and a cat 4 by tomorrow. The landfall location has also shifted from Corpus Christi northward to around Port Lavaca and Victoria, but anywhere in the path of this storm needs to watch out. All of the reliable models forecast 10+ inches of rain in Texas from this thing, so as bad as coastal storm surge could be, flash floods are a definite given Harvey's expected stalled motion after it makes landfall in Texas. Ryan1000 18:16, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * One of my friends once said that this naming list was cursed; I disputed his claim at the time, citing that no names were retired from this list until its fourth use saw Floyd and Lenny get the boot (though to be fair, Bret and Gert should both have been axed after their 1993 incarnations)... but I'm starting to think he might be right. In addition to the aforementioned storms from 1993 and 1999, this list was also used for the 2005 season, and then the 2011 season brought with it Hurricane Irene. Now we have Harvey threatening to end the U.S. major hurricane drought (which was, coincidentally, started by another storm bearing a name formerly from this list: Wilma) with potentially one of the most destructive natural disasters in Texan history.
 * It's surreal to think that Harvey was a minimal TS flop only four or five days ago... now it could possibly unseat Bret's 1999 incarnation as the strongest hurricane to strike Texas since... at least Celia, I think? Maybe even Carla... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:51, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lmao, look at this model from the NAM for Harvey. --Whiplash (talk) 19:15, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * What is also ridiculous about this storm is that some models have it being pushed back offshore and then regenerating into a minimal hurricane and smacking Louisiana in a second landfall. --Whiplash (talk) 19:16, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) This naming list didn't have any retirees until it's fourth usage in 1999, but since then, it's been a fairly unlucky list, though the most cursed Atlantic naming list has to be list 5 (the 2013 season list, scheduled for 2019), because that naming list has the most retired names out of every Atlantic naming list, with 13 names axed from it, and there still has yet to be one time list 5 was used to have not retired names. 1983 had Alicia, 1989 had Hugo, 1995 had Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne, 2001 had Allison, Iris, and Michelle, 2007 had Dean, Felix, and Noel, and 2013, as inactive as it was, had Ingrid axed. Who knows what 2019 will bring...anyways, back to Harvey, it's organization continues to improve, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a category 2 hurricane by the next advisory, and a cat 3 this evening. If Harvey becomes a cat 4 before landfall, he'd top Celia (which was the last major hurricane to directly hit Corpus Christi) and be the strongest Texas hit since Carla, but since the area where Harvey is making landfall is more populated than it was in the past, damage will be much worse for Harvey than it was at the time Celia and Carla struck. However, I have doubts Harvey will rival the 30 billion dollar destruction of Ike of 2008, the costliest disaster in Texas history, because 1) Harvey won't directly hit Houston like Ike did, and 2) Harvey is also a smaller storm (hurricane force winds only go 25 miles out from the center, TS force winds go 90 miles out, Ike was more than 400 miles across, leading to a monstrous storm surge for the Galveston/Houston area from him), but Harvey will still be a very damaging storm regardless. Ryan1000 19:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * See in my opinion Harvey doesn't have to directly hit Houston much of the moisture is going to be east of wherever it makes landfall meaning most of the moisture will get dumped over the city added to the surge destruction on the coast we will be probably looking at one of Texas' most formidable hurricanes maybe not quite Ike but close. This will almost certainly be south Texas' worst modern hurricane. --Whiplash (talk) 19:26, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Harvey's definitely looking to be a very damaging storm for Texas, but 30 billion is probably a bit much, the heaviest rain is probably going to fall just to the southwest of the Houston area, especially in the region around Victoria, El campo, and Ganado, but still, it's likely we're going to see a lot of damage even if it doesn't top Ike. The worst storm surge will be at or just north of the Corpus Christi area, while the heavier rains will be in the aforementioned cities just southwest of Houston. Ryan1000 19:43, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

This is a very bad situation that's unfolding. Very, very bad. This will very likely break our 12-year major hurricane drought, which I had a feeling would happen this year. This could be one of the most catastrophic hurricanes we've seen in the United States in quite a few years. We saw what Ike did to similar areas in Texas, but Harvey will be stronger and slower-moving. Also, I'd like to mention that, in the betting pools, I said I think Harvey would be the strongest storm of the season. I called for it to be a Category 4 at its peak, and some of the models are taking it to that strength. I had a bad feeling about Matthew last year when it formed, and I have had a bad feeling about Harvey for months. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 20:10, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I've seen Gustav, Ike, Sandy, and Matthew. This is the only storm in my life that I know something bad is guaranteed to happen. Harvey unfortunately will break the major hurricane landfall streak, ending it at 11 years, 10 months, and one day (temporarily). T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:17, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * 4 PM CDT advisory is out, Harvey's winds are still 85 mph but the pressure has fallen slightly to 976 mbars. Harvey already has a well-defined eye and it's very likely to become a major hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning.Ryan1000 20:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

An eye has now completely visible on Infrared satellites and radar. I'll be surprised if this isn't upgraded to at least a Category 2 in the next advisory. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:57, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow. This is turning out into a monster. I hope this won't become U.S.'s version of Haiyan (storm surge-wise; oh, it also starts with H), but most of all I hope this won't be Galveston 2.0 (evacuations are ongoing though, so I expect a lower death toll). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:27, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory should be coming out in a little bit. Let's see what happens. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 23:29, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh no, this is going to be bad for Texas. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 23:32, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * No change in intensity, yet. Initial intensity remains at 75 kts as of the moment, until data from the other Air Force flight comes. Pressure now at 974 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:59, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Advisory just came out. No change in winds, though the pressure has gone down 2 millibars. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 00:02, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Still won't be surprised if this monster gets upgraded to a C2 in the next advisory even though the strengthening appears to have stalled a bit. Texas should beware Harvey's fury like Lee's siggy said. This could get really bad, real quick. Forecast track is now showing a reemergence into the GOM as a TS on Tuesday. Like I said earlier, combine Allison '01 and a major hurricane and you have a scary, frightening potential catastrophe. This is going to be terribad for Texas. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:26, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey's eye recently disappeared under a massive convective burst, so I suspect that's what paused the intensification trend. I have a feeling that Harvey will resume strengthening once the eye re-emerges. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:42, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wow. Never expected Harvey would intensify THAT much. Forecasters predicting almost a Cat 4 :O (If you see, Harvey is trending worldwide on Twitter! I can see plenty forecasts, advisories and even a few Steve Harvey jokes) STAY SAFE TEXAS!  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 00:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Structure of the storm appears to be getting messy again. Might reorganize but this may rule out a Category 4 storm, and hopefully a major. --Whiplash (talk) 02:03, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * The first potential landfalling major hurricane, this is going to be disastrous. One woman died after her house collapsed on her. Texas better prepare because if not, then it'll cause a lot of deaths and we don't want that. Its intensity is at 85 mph/974 mbar. And here's the image of Harvey right now.  Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 02:23, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey's organization has slipped lately, it looked like it was going to become a major hurricane by now, but it's eye became filled in the last few hours, which has caused his intensification to level off somewhat. However, it should re-organize itself by tomorrow and become a major hurricane before hitting near Port Arkansas or Corpus Christi, though it's not as likely Harvey will become a strong cat 4 at this point. Had Harvey's eye not been cloud-filled by now, it could've easily been a major hurricane by this point, and maybe on the doorstep of cat 4, but it's not. Still, I'd be surprised if Harvey doesn't become a major hurricane before landfall tomorrow night or Saturday morning. Ryan1000 03:07, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Tomorrow, which is about an hour from now in Eastern Time, it will have been 4324 days since October 24, 2005. That was the day Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida. 4324 days ago, the major-drought started, and now it looks like it may be coming to an end. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 03:08, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * 98 kt flight level winds measured by recon and considering the plane is flying at 700mb (85-90% reduction), we have a Category 2 hurricane. Owen 04:25, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * The pressure is down to 973 mbar. People in Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, etc, need to get outta there ASAP. Or else, if they want to ride the storm, they are at potential risk. Never   forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 04:47, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * And now it's officially a Category 2 hurricane according to NHC. Intensity up to 100 mph/967 mb. This is getting scary for those at Texas.  Never   forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 05:30, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * The latest intermediate advisory ties Harvey for strongest storm of the season, at 90 knots and 967 mb. A pinhole eye appears to be poking through on satellite imagery. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:35, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * It looks like Corpus Christi will bear the brunt of the storm, and Harvey's rainbands are already reaching the coast of Texas. A recon has recently measured a pressure in the eye of Harvey as low as 958 mbars as of the 5 AM CDT update, so it could be upgraded to a major hurricane as soon as the next advisory. Hurricane-force winds still aren't going out particularly far from Harvey (still only 25 miles), but the tropical storm-force wind field has expanded to 140 miles out, likely due to an ERC that has occured as Harvey cleared it's eye out overnight, so TS force impacts will be widespread along the south-central Texas coast. Ryan1000 09:54, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * According to recon data, Harvey is now a 110 mph storm with a 952 mbar pressure. The pressure has dropped more than 15 mbar in 4 hours. There is a forecast of 31" of rain near Port Lavaca, Texas. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:06, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Scratch that, recon has found a pressure of 950 mbar. I think it's possible to go down near 930 around landfall. We may have a situation where the winds may be 115 or so but the pressure is in the 940s and 930s so it will have energy similar to a Category 4 hurricane. But god damn, it can even get in the 920s by landfall and I'm not joking. I'm calling it, Harvey is going to be retired. Especially if the Euro solution verifies, where we get this first landfall then a second one in Houston after it restrengthens, we are looking at a monster. Keeping Texas in my thoughts this morning. Owen 11:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 947 mb being reported. Here comes our first (and hopefully only) major of the season. --Whiplash (talk) 11:56, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * He's on the doorstep of major hurricane intensity right now, Harvey should be upgraded to one by the next advisory. It's likely Harvey will make landfall as a strong category 3 hurricane, with winds around 120-125 mph. I'd be surprised if Harvey's impacts in the Corpus Christi/Port Arkansas area aren't enough to warrant retirement, it'll be the first major hurricane to hit the area in 47 years, since Celia of 1970. However, Celia rapidly rushed onshore, bringing strong winds and storm surge but it dissipated shortly after. Harvey is going to stall not long after making landfall and will later recurve towards Houston, so inland flooding is probably going to be a bigger threat from Harvey than what the coast will experience. Ryan1000 12:07, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * A dropsonde in the eyewall of Harvey recorded 103 knot (118 mph) winds and a 946 mbar pressure. If that's deemed official by NHC, Harvey might be upgraded to a cat 3 in their 8 AM CDT update statement. Ryan1000 12:12, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

That's it. I have to say something about this. School is canceled for the day (or longer) across parts of southeast Texas. This will be the next Ike if the current forecast comes true. Three or more forecast models, specifically the GFS, the ECMWF, and the HWRF, are all certain that this storm will move like a snail around Texas for days. This is bad. Hopefully everyone who didn't evacuate makes it out okay. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:38, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well... Link to this forecast run. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:45, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * 948 millibars now. That's down two in the past hour. If this strengthening trend keeps up until landfall, this could reach 916 millibars. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:08, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * And to top it off... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:14, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey currently bringing rain to Texas. Expected to be a major hurricane and make landfall on Texas. There won't be enough time to be a Category 4 (unless it RIs to that). Never   forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 14:27, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * And with the intensity up to 110 mph/948 mbar, Harvey is now the strongest storm of the season so far.  Never   forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 14:31, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Not sure this will become a major before landfall. Eye is losing definition yet again. --Whiplash (talk) 15:38, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Like I said earlier, it looks more and more that even though the winds don't correspond to the pressure in Harvey, the hurricane has expanded its windfield and will have a lot more energy and storm surge associated with it. I'm going to make a prediction Harvey will make landfall with 115 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 940 mbar unless more RI happens. Owen 16:41, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Harvey looks like it's going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 16:54, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dropsonde found 102 kt surface winds ( see here  ), Harvey is a major hurricane. Expect upgrade from NHC within next half hour or so, or maybe a special advisory afterward.  Owen  17:34, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Hearing reports that Hurricane Hunters found winds above major hurricane strength. Get ready everyone, things are about to heat up. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 17:48, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Quite surprised NHC didn't pull major hurricane trigger, but 110 winds/945 mbar in intermediate advisory. I'm thinking NHC is waiting for recon data to confirm. Owen 17:58, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here we go... --Whiplash (talk) 17:58, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I'm gonna put this new section here, though, because scrolling up to edit is getting tedious. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 18:01, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fun fact: if Harvey neither attains major hurricane status operationally, nor is upgraded in post-analysis, then it has just broken the record set by the 95 kt/946 mbar Hurricane Alex of 2010 as the Atlantic basin's strongest non-major hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:03, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well I'm heading off to work. Shift will be ending just around landfall so will see what happens while I'm gone. --Whiplash (talk) 18:02, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 18z ATCF!!!! AL, 09, 2017082518,, BEST, 0, 271N, 963W, 100, 944, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HARVEY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, Now all we need is for the NHC to make it official, which I imagine will happen with the new location update coming up shortly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:45, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Harvey
Getting scarier for Texas by the hour. The wording from NWS/NHC can not be any starker. The impacts of Harvey, with the greatly extended surge and rains never seen before here will make Harvey more devastating than a lot of previous serious hurricanes in the U.S. We are watching history unfold. I have a feeling though that hopefully Harvey will be capping off in intensity prior to landfall. And if not, well... Owen 18:51, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Major hurricane status officially confirmed by NHC. 105 kts/943 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:58, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey's current pressure is listed at 943. The last storm to hit the US with that kind of pressure was Rita in 2005 with 937. And I think Harvey will go deeper than that. After Rita is Katrina with 920. So Harvey will potentially be the most intense storm to hit the US since Katrina. And if it hits 130 mph winds, it'll be the strongest winds pf a hurricane to hit U.S. since Charley. Owen 20:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I think it's now safe to say that the drought will officially end tonight. 4,323 days. Unbelievable. Also, I have a longtime friend, who I've known since elementary school, that lives in Corpus Christi. He's evacuated, but I now know that some of his close friends (who I got to know when I visited Corpus two years ago, and am also friends with them as well) are staying behind. So I have some people I know who are in the path of this storm. Even though I'm not in the path of this storm, my life could be affected terribly if they end up getting killed. They are not by the coast, though. They moved to a hotel further inland. I'm not just thinking about them, though. I'm thinking about everyone in the path of this storm. Hope people have taken the necessary precautions. Because this is a nasty looking hurricane. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 20:38, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is very unfortunate that this is going to end the streak. Also, Harvey looks like a C4 hurricane. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:45, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * As new dropsondes are now measuring 130 mph winds (which would make this a C4), it probably wasn't in enough time for the NHC by the time they issued the 5 pm advisory with winds of 125 mph and 941 mbar. About to sub-940 and this could be the first Category 4 hurricane to strike the United States since Charley - close call. Yikes. Owen 20:59, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Winds are now 125 and further strengthening is likely. This will probably be not only the first major hurricane to hit the US in years, but the first category 4 to hit the US in 13 years. Winds are picking up along the coast too, I'm watching TWC, and Paul Goodloe, who is in Corpus Christi, is getting battered by winds. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:12, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey's eye is about to move onshore just north of Corpus Christi near Port Arkansas, so it's not likely he'll be a cat 4 unless it's in the NHC's update statement when it makes landfall. But still, Harvey is a large and powerful major hurricane that is bringing strong winds and a powerful storm surge to the Texas coast. That, and the forecast still calls for Harvey to re-emerge off the coast briefly before moving towards the Houston area as a tropical storm, so flooding is going to be extreme from this hurricane, with some areas north of Corpus Christi expected to get as much as, if not more than, 40 inches of rain over the next few days. Ryan1000 22:14, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 125mph, 941mb. This feels very much like a cat 4 to be honest. I wish the people of Texas, Corpus Christi and the surrounding area all the best and hope they do well in keeping safe from the storm. This is a life-threatening, dangerous storm. It was the last thing anyone wanted, to ruin what would have been either the perfect end to a summer break. (However the perks of this hurricane is that school is closed for some. Hurray! And the jokes on Twitter some users are tweeting, such as the Steve Harvey jokes Rah mentioned above, HI RAH nice to meet ya!) But this is no time to celebrate. Pray for Texas. HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 22:35, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Steve Harvey isn't appropriate for this; "Harvegeddon" as I said before, is a more accurate way to describe this (likely very damaging) major hurricane about to hit Texas any moment now. Port Arkansas is about to get the center of the storm, and Corpus Christi will get the southern eyewall and as much as 12 feet of storm surge, plus winds of more than 100 mph and 20-foot waves that could top the seawall by the bay area. And this isn't at all to mention the inland flooding that will unfold over the next several days. Ryan1000 22:48, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Jim Cantore is getting absolutely battered by the winds in Corpus Christi. I've never seen Jim having this much of a struggle with the wind, and he's been through some big hurricanes! So it's a triple whammy for the coast of Corpus Christi and surrounding areas. Flooding, storm surge, and extremely high winds. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 22:54, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Jim's equipment said that gusts are currently 79 mph. So that's what they're experiencing right now. I think Brian Norcross (hurricane expert on TWC) just said it best when he said "for areas around there (Corpus Christi), this is going to be hellacious." Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 22:58, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

GUYS THIS MORON IS NOW A CAT 4

<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;text-align:center;">...6 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...HARVEY BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 23:01, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Amazing. Keeping Texas in my thoughts, hopefully this is the peak. This will be the first C4 landfall in US since Charley. Owen 23:03, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still eating my "lol" when Harvey lost his circulation at first. Wow.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:04, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 130mph, 941mb. THIS IS A NIGHTMARE god help these people HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 23:09, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Holy shit. Now up to  130 MPH!!!!!  This is now the most scared I've been at a landfalling US hurricane in many years. Not even Matthew scared me this much. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 23:06, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well damn, looks like the update statement confirmed it. Port Arkansas is ground zero right now and Corpus is taking a severe beating from this as well. Texas hasn't seen a cat 4 landfall since Carla of 1961, and the U.S. hasn't seen one period since Charley. Prayers for those in Texas right now... Ryan1000 23:14, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * OMG, that is going to be  DEVASTATING   for Texas. I hope they're okay there... Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 23:22, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Indeed! Anyway for comparison's sake:
 * CURRENTLY: Harvey (2017) is at 130mph, 941mb.
 * BACK IN THE DAY (BUT OBVS, NOT TOO LONG AGO): Katrina (2005) landfell at 125mph. Rita (2005) landfell at 120mph. Ivan (2004) landfell at 120mph. Wilma (2005) landfell at 120mph. This is to tell you how catastrophic the situation we are dealing with right now could turn out to be. Hope it won't be as bad as those mentioned above. HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 23:30, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, this is going to be a nightmare. Right now, I'm watching The Weather Channel with Jim Cantore riding out Harvey. Harvey just offshore from Texas. It's going to make landfall in Texas as a major and then go back to sea just like Allison did in 2001. Remember to pray for Texas, pray for the people riding out the hurricane, if you can.  Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 23:37, August 25, 2017 (UTC) P.S. Now Jim Cantore is reporting gusts up to 90 mph in his area (Corpus Christi).


 * ...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS... NHC Still hasn't called the landfall yet, as of the 7 PM advisory. Ryan1000 00:03, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * And now I am genuinely scared for Texas. I don't know anymore, I just hope everything will be okay soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:13, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Port O'Connor and Port Aransas are going to get whacked on all sides. From seeing how much this is already affecting Texas, we could be looking at a $10 billion storm hitting Texas. Jim Cantore said on TWC, "I can guarantee that Harvey won't be on the list anymore after tomorrow." T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:16, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * That damage total might even be conservative. Given the extended amount of time Harvey will be over the south portion of Texas, and all the extreme flooding it'll bring, 15-20 billion seems more likely in the end. Not as destructive as Ike but a close second nonetheless. Ryan1000 00:20, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Some people in Corpus decided to risk their lives by not leaving their houses. And I don't mean inland, I mean on the coast.So this is not good at all. Also, somewhat off-topic just to show how serious this is, The Weather Channel has gone into what is commonly known as "red mode", due to the fact that they change the logo from blue to red. They do this for extremely life-threatening situations, and until tonight, it hadn't been used since 2014... Oh, and I heard Jim say that too, TornadoGenius. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 00:37, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yeah, that is very bad for them. Not leaving their homes just before the hurricane is kinda dangerous. I hope there not much deaths. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 00:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC) P.S. I see that too Leeboy (the "red mode").

The eyewall is now crossing the coast near Port Aransas. Official landfall will likely be in about an hour or two from now. Also, is it just me, or does Harvey look annular? Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 00:59, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm expecting landfall any minute now. When it makes landfall, Harvey will be the first hurricane to make landfall in Texas since Ike in 2008, first to make landfall as a major hurricane in the US since Wilma in 2005, first to make landfall as a Cat. 4 hurricane in the US since Charley in 2004, first to  make landfall as a major hurricane in Texas since Ceila in 1970  Bret in 1999, and the first  to make landfall as a Cat. 4 hurricane in Texas since Carla in 1961.   Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 01:24, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * P.S. Thanks for correcting me Ryan.


 * God forbid if this is becoming annular, as it would probably hold intensity longer over land. This is the scariest storm ever... A freakin' C4 hurricane combined with Allison-esque stalling over Texas! A re-Katrina is probably going to happen. I didn't really expect this would go as far as a monster C4. I mean, HOLY SH!T! I can't believe my eyes! This could be a worst-case flood disaster that could kill hundreds and cause Katrina-like damages. Yes Lee, I saw how weather.com is looking like (I don't think I've seen that mode since Winter Storm Nemo in 2013). Really hope a worst-case flood scenario is avoided, but with the stalling over Texas... that could be inevitable. This is a total nightmare-ish, cataclysm in the making. Even scarier than Sandy I'd say. WE MUST PRAY FOR THE TEXANS!!! 😱 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:26, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually 68, Bret of 1999 was the last major hurricane to hit Texas, but Bret struck Kenedy county between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, causing little damage and not getting retired. Celia was the last major hurricane to hit Corpus Christi directly, Harvey missed the city just to the north, but they're still getting the southern eyewall of the storm right now and it's going to last for several hours, and rainfall for several days. Ryan1000 01:48, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Right now, Port Aransas is experiencing wind gusts of 120 MPH. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 02:06, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * See here for a very impressive live stream during Hurricane Harvey. Roofs collapsing, mobile homes flying in the air, no visibility, etc. Not good. Weather Channel is borefest for me.  Owen 02:11, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * 938.8 mb extrapolated from recon as Harvey makes landfall. Owen 02:32, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's minutes away from making its potential devastating landfall in Texas. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 02:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't think it's 'potential devastating', I think it WILL be devastating. We could be looking at a hurricane going down in the record books as one of the costliest US hurricanes on record, including the flood situation that will happen after this landfall. But the real news and real reason I post right now is...Hurricane Harvey...has made landfall as a 130 mph Category 4 hurricane. Harvey has not weakened, this is a true Category 4 landfall on the United States, and so we have it, the 12 year streak is OVER. A hurricane of this intensity AND size is something I think the U.S. hasn't seen since Hugo. Record-breaking Harvey breaks the 12 year streak, becomes first C4 to strike US since Charley, becomes first hurricane to impact Texas since Ike, and will be the strongest Texas hurricane since Carla a half century ago. Owen 02:51, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Harvey (continued, makes landfall)
And it's official. 938 mb. Harvey made landfall as a C4. The 12 year streak is over. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:01, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * And finally, after 12 years, the drought for the major hurricane landfall is over. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 03:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall official. The drought is over. I'm hoping for the best from here on out. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 03:09, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well then. Wasn't really expecting that. I go away for one week and a category 4 is making landfall? Yikes... Hey Harvey, while your there, can you do a number on the Dallas Stadium? Kthx. My hopes go out to Texas. Emma and V 03:11, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * WTF happened while I was at work. See some pics from Jeff Petrowski showing him recording 931 mb in the eye of Harvey. --Whiplash (talk) 03:50, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * The drought is finally over (unfortunately). It made landfall near Rockport, Texas. This monster is about to go down as one of the costliest hurricanes EVER. All locations around Rockport are currently experiencing doomsday-like conditions like major hurricane-force winds and really heavy rainfall. The devastation will most likely be catastrophic once this is all done. And the stalling will make things much worse. I could already give this a 100% chance of retirement. Won't be surprised if Katrina-like carnage is done. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:03, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Mike Seidel from TWC is in Port Lavaca and the water is beginning to get above his ankles, so the water is already building up.

Oh, and @Whiplash, you missed quite a bit, Harvey strengthened. First to a category 3, then a category 4. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 04:04, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Well I have been trying to login for a while but I cant remember my username. I am allan calderini anyways. Yeah it sad that Texas took the brunt of the storm and for the record while the major hurricane drought has finally end to make matters worse it was with a cat 4 instead of a cat 3. I hope Texans prepare for this storm and they will be in my prayers. 181.210.62.178 04:35, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Harvey has now made a second landfall on the other side of the bay. And has weakened, but not very much. 125 mph, 942 millibars. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 05:56, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

There have been reports of numerous structural damage already — one report says that the Rockport High School sustained a lot of damage. This is just the start, however. Depending on its future track, this second landfall may be Harvey's last (unless of course if it re-emerges into the GoM later next week). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:00, August 26, 2017 (UTC) ...HARVEY MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF COPANO BAY...
 * It is currently near Rockport to the north, and Victoria to the south. Expected to weaken further and turn southward to reenter the Gulf of Mexico. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 06:18, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * The U.S. major hurricane drought had to end at some point, and it has now, but with a storm of Harvey's intensity, it'll be extremely bad for parts of Texas, and possibly the second-costliest hurricane on record in the state, after Ike. But the storm surge is one thing from Harvey, the inland flood threat is just beginning, and it'll go on for several days. The inland flood damage may also be much worse than the coastal threat due to the sheer amount of rain that'll be dropped from this, the area where its at right now is expected to get at least 30-40 inches of rain over the next several days, but some isolated locations may get 50 or even 60 inches worth of rainfall. Harvey's also slowed down to only 6 mph, and will likely reverse direction soon. Ryan1000 07:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * NHC Update: 115 mph, 950 mb. Will likely become a C2 soon, but this ain't over yet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:34, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Harvey (2nd time)
Now official. Harvey is no longer a major hurricane. 110 mph, 954 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 08:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * 100 mph, 963 mbars. NHC's statement is very blunt: catastrophic flooding expected over the next few days due to heavy rainfall. I just hope that this isn't Texas's Katrina. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to C1. 80 mph, 975 mbars. And now the rains are picking up. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

...HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


 * Last advisory took the winds down to 75 mph and pressure up to 984 mbars. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 15:48, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Pictures of damage are starting to come in. Here's a picture of a hotel in Rockport taken by Jim Edds. https://mobile.twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/901473270356115457/photo/1 Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 17:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey (3rd time)
70 mph, 987 mbars. And the feared (but expected) flooding is now happening. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:55, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

...HARVEY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM INLAND OVER TEXAS... ...EXTREMELY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING...
 * Harvey has killed 2 people so far. And worse yet, the flood right ahead is going to be disastrous. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 18:36, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Pictures are coming in of the significant damage Harvey has caused in parts of Texas. Especially around Rockport, which was essentially ground zero when Harvey made landfall. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 19:39, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Unfortunately, a death has now been confirmed. A man died in a fire in Rockport overnight. Harvey has claimed his first victim, let's hope he doesn't claim too much more. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 20:08, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sadly, Wikipedia now says that 2 deaths in total occurred, but one of them was apparently in Suriname (where Harvey shouldn't have done much at all). Expect the death toll to continue to rise as the flooding disaster unfolds over Texas as Harvey lingers for days. Damage tolls will be immense at the end, and this could be a certain retirement candidate. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:01, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Property damage is now estimated at $2 billion. Harvey will surely go after this season. Anyway, this storm has weakened to 60 mph, but the rains are just getting stronger. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:18, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Forecast track no longer takes Harvey back over the GoM as a TS, but moves it south towards Corpus Christi and then back north, doing a loop over land and over its own wake. Flooding is going to be extreme in Texas from this powerful storm, and it's not going to be over for another 4 days or so. I can only imagine how high the damage from this thing will be, hopefully loss of life doesn't get much worse than it has already. Ryan1000 00:29, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...
 * Pressure up to 992 mbar. I can imagine it becomes much worse from Harvey. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 01:01, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Massive feeder bands over Houston right now now predicting more than 40 inches of rain in the city in 24 hours. Cataclysmic amounts. --Whiplash (talk) 02:15, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

Winds down to 50 mph, pressure up to 994 mbars. Flood emergency in Houston right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:53, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unfortunate news but reports that 3 people have died in Aransas County and 1 person has died from the flooding in Houston. Some reports saying that up to 30 people unaccounted for in the Rockport area. --Whiplash (talk) 04:25, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * If Harvey's winds alone can cause US$2 billion of damage, I don't want to think what 40 inches of rain will do. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:00, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

...HARVEY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES LITTLE... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS...


 * The latest advisory takes the intensity down to 45 mph/998 mbar. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 06:00, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Parts of Houston and southeast Texas are currently getting torrential rainfall. Floods in some areas are now at the brink of exceeding record flood levels set during Allison 16 years ago. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:39, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

4AM (CDT) update: 45 mph, 998 mbars. Weakening but actually causing more catastrophic and devastating effects. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:04, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, that was some lethal rain-band. When I went to bed 7 hours ago in the screaming rain, Houston was like normal. But when I woke up, I got a notification from TWC saying that Houston is flooded bad. So, from this one rain-band, Houston got 20 inches of rain, in seven hours. And there's STILL more rain coming. I have a sick feeling in my stomach right now, if torrential rains like this continue... I just... I can't imagine how grotesque these floods are going to look like. Stay safe out there, everyone! Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:44, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Pressure still at 998 mbars, winds still at 45 mph. Death toll now 8: 7 in the U.S. and 1 in Suriname. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:51, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Some areas southwest of Houston suffered worse, there's already been 30+ inches of rain around the Victoria area northwest of Rockport, and it could be 40 to even 60 inches over the next few days as Harvey continues to meander over southeastern Texas. Couple the flooding that Houston and surrounding areas suffered from this with the devastating damage from Harvey's storm surge and this could be among the costliest disasters Texas has ever seen. While Ike will probably still retain the record with 34 billion (inflated) in storm surge damage in the Galveston/Houston area in 2008, Harvey is going to be a strong runner-up. Ryan1000 13:01, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Models increasingly showing Harvey will go back into the gulf possible could re-intensify into a Category 1 hurricane and make landfall near Houston, Texas. One of the wackiest systems ever. --Whiplash (talk) 15:59, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INCLUDING GREATER HOUSTON... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...
 * Intensity down to 40 mph/1000 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:32, August 27, 2017 (UTC) P.S. It's the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Rita in 2005.

I am sorry Ryan but I doubt that Ike will retain that record as Harvey probably will eclipse it and by a good margin. I am really sad for the disaster that is happening on texas. 181.210.62.178 18:40, August 27, 2017 (UTC) ...UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
 * Sorry to say 181.210 (Allan) but I have to agree with Ryan. I give it a less chance that Harvey can surpass Ike. Ike caused $29.5 billion of damages in Texas alone. Although Harvey was stronger at Texas landfall, I doubt it surpass Ike. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:04, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ike caused most of it's damage due to it's large, powerful storm surge on the coast of Galveston and Houston, which is typical of most of the costliest U.S. hurricanes; Harvey's primary threat of inland flooding is definitely going to be very destructive, I'd be surprised if it's not around 20-25 billion dollars, though I'm not expecting it to exceed Ike's 34 billion. Unfortunately for Texas, the NHC forecast once again has Harvey moving back over open water south of Houston and retaining tropical storm strength in the GoM, so Harvey may stick around for 2-3 days longer than anticipated. Ryan1000 20:46, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * This will surely be costlier than Allison, but Ike? We'll wait and see. It depends on whether or not Harvey will emerge back into the GoM and gather strength again. If Harvey manages to become a hurricane again, then Ike's record may be shattered, though honedstly I don't think it will happen (and I hope it won't happen; Texas had enough of this storm already). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:01, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

New one for the record books. Thanks to Harvey, August 2017 is now the wettest month on record in Houston. Surpassing June 2001, which was, of course, due to Tropical Storm Allison. And the rain is still going to be here a few more days. This is getting worse and worse. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 22:50, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

Absolute nightmare. I mean, this is the worst deluge I've ever tracked in the Atlantic basin. This will be even worse than Allison because combining an Allison-like track + a major hurricane landfall = cataclysm. Harvey won't let up in the area until mid-week which is when it will finally turn north toward Arkansas. Damages could exceed Ike's amount due to all the damage it did when landfalling as a C4 and the damage it will cause throughout the weeklong deluge. Won't be surprised if it gets into Sandy territory, or even (god forbid) Katrina territory. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:27, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yeah, a total nightmare to them. This is getting worse for them. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:58, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * (I apologize for the very long post below, but I wanted to express all of my thoughts regarding Harvey. -Andy)


 * "DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS"
 * "Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area."
 * -Forecaster Blake
 * For seven years now, I have been following these powerful forces of nature that the Atlantic spawns. Not once have I seen wording this strong in a NHC advisory package. Not for Irene. Not for Sandy. Not for Patricia. Not even for Matthew. I had a bad feeling about Harvey when I read that hurricane-force winds were to be expected along the Texas coast in the NHC TWO when the system was still a tropical wave. I can not believe that Harvey accomplished all of this. No one has mentioned this yet, but this monster intensified from a tropical depression to a hurricane in 14 hours - along the ranks of Humberto and Lorenzo '07 as the fastest-developing hurricanes on record. Then, Harvey became the first Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in over half a decade and became the strongest hurricane to hit Texas since Carla in 1961! I knew that the United States could not take its major hurricane drought for granted. It would only be a matter of time before another beast came upon our shores. I hope that Harvey's landfall will make Americans realize that we are not immune from these types of natural disasters. The population of coastal regions such as Texas and Florida have increased significantly in the past few decades, and many simply do not have the experience to cope with a situation like this. I apologize for my long rant, but let this ring clear - If we continue dismissing these threats, we will find ourselves in grave trouble at the wrong time.
 * Now, back to Harvey. Due to the storm's proximity to the coastline, it has been able to maintain itself as a tropical storm for 48 hours after landfall, the first to do so since Fern in 1971. Winds are currently at 35 knots (40 mph), with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa). Harvey should move back over water over the next couple of days and make a second landfall closer to Houston/Galveston, as the NHC forecasts. Fortunately, no significant reintensification is expected. While wind, surf, storm surge, and even tornadoes may cause potential impacts, both southeastern Texas and Louisiana should brace for the rain. As quoted above, over four feet of rain may fall from this system. To give some historical perspective, the wettest tropical cyclone on record for Texas (and the contiguous United States) was Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978. If the NHC's prediction verifies, Harvey will go down in the record books (not that it already has) . On the subject of precipitation, check out this list of totals. You read that right, Dayton, Texas has received approximately 27 inches of rain from Harvey. This is already among the top ten wettest tropical cyclones for the continental United States, and I hope things do not get any worse. Fatalitywise, the total is now up to eight, and I will be quite surprised if this is the final total. A landfalling Category 4 of this magnitude is bound to have a much higher body count.
 * Also, Dylan, to comment on your earlier mention of this naming list being cursed, I'd like to state this: In the hypothetical scenario that this naming list was first used in 1851 (when the HURDAT database starts) instead of 1981 and utilized every six years, then all of the following seasons would have used it: 1909 (which featured the Monterrey hurricane and two landfalling U.S. major hurricanes), 1933 (the most active season before 2005), 1957 (the year of Audrey), 1963 (the year of Flora), 1969 (the highest number of hurricanes before 2005), 1999, 2005, 2011, and of course, 2017. On a side note, for any JFK fanatics out there, Harvey is the middle name of the president's assassin. Quite a fitting name for a major hurricane crashing down on Texas's shores (cough, cough, Dallas).
 * To close my (long) post, please keep the people of Texas in your thoughts. They will have a long road to recovery ahead, and they need all the support they can give. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:25, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

Pressure now at 999 mbars, still 40 mph. Possible third landfall on Tuesday; only forecast to reach 45 mph before hitting land again. Harvey will likely break Amelia's record if the torrential rains continue to pour (and become even stronger). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:58, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey's heaviest rain appears to have spaced a bit from Houston lately, but now flash flood warnings are in effect for parts of southwestern Louisiana. Should Harvey cause flooding there and elsewhere farther northeast as bad as Houston has been hit, damage could be higher than Ike's overall, as nearly all of Ike's 34 billion in U.S. damage was due to coastal storm surge and winds on the Texas coast. Harvey is easily going to be the costliest U.S. hurricane on record whose damage was primarily due to flooding rainfall instead of coastal storm surge. Ryan1000 08:57, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * So, based on the damages so far, it looks like we have an estimated potential total of $40 billion. But like Ryan said, the remainder of potential flooding still hasn't been accounted for especially if its spread toward the Louisiana coast. But as of now, I think it's safe to say that like I said a couple days ago, Harvey is among Katrina, Sandy, Ike, and Andrew now. Owen 10:25, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey's pressure has now fallen to 997 and NHC expects Harvey to re-intensify to a 45 mph storm before making landfall a second time. Since Harvey is entraining dry air right now, the southwestern side of the circulation is mostly clear and most of the heaviest rain is over western Louisiana right now. But due to Harvey's slow movement and continued thunderstorm buildup on it's northeast side, parts of Louisiana may be flooded as bad as parts of Texas were. However, the images just coming out of Houston are horrific. Apparently the 50-60 inches of rain dumped there from Harvey was far too conservative for estimating the overall flooding there, because due to the city's low elevation, apparently the runoff from rainfall that occured in the surrounding areas poured into Houston like a bowl, and some parts of the city are under a whopping 15 to even 20 feet of rainfall from this monster storm. Since it'll take weeks, months, or even years to empty that out and repair the city, as much as I hate to admit it, Harvey may rival or even exceed Katrina, yes Katrina, as the costliest hurricane to hit the United States on record. Ryan1000 14:28, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. One of the most potential damaging hurricanes, Harvey will probably succeed Ike's 34 billion dollars. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Holy crud my 2015 Harvey prediction was right. <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  21:54, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * And crap, the storm's rain has moved back over Houston again. Historic flooding there is continuing...it may take another 4 days or so before this stops. Ryan1000 00:45, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey has moved back over the Gulf of Mexico, and is now moving towards southwestern Louisiana. New tropical storm warnings have been issued for both that region and southeastern Texas, which should continue to receive unprecedented rainfall totals from this system. Additionally, due to an increase in convection and new reports of tropical storm winds, the NHC has raised Harvey's winds back up to 40 knots (45 mph), with the pressure still remaining at 997 mbar (hPa). Fortunately, the storm is still not expected to significantly reintensify. Motionwise, a subtropical ridge currently over the Gulf of Mexico will drag Harvey back over land in the next few days and eventually into the New Madrid region. There are so many images I have seen related to the havoc that Harvey has left behind in Texas, but there is no way I can fit them all into this one forum page. All I know is that Texas will have years of recovery from what we are currently witnessing. Damagewise, JPMorgan is estimating losses to be between $10 to 20 billion, and Chuck Watson foresees a damage bill of $30 billion. If the latter verifies, Harvey will become the fourth costliest Atlantic hurricane in history, after only Katrina, Sandy, and Ike. Moreover, precipitation totals of over 35 inches have been reported near Greater Houston, making Harvey the wettest American tropical cyclone since Allison. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:32, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, now the death toll is now up to 14. It is confirmed that the damage totals are over $10 billion. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:49, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is a severely saddening situation that unfolded over Texas and probably some surrounding areas. Harvey will be retired for sure now. I will go along with the Chuck Watson scenario for eventual damage totals, because combining the C4 landfall and the days upon days of flooding will surely make for an extraordinarily costly disaster. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:58, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * BTW, Harvey is over water again, but significant intensification isn't expected before its second landfall near the border of Texas and Louisiana. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:59, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
This invest is the wave right beind 91L. The wave emerging off of Africa will be future 93L which will correspond to the section below. Like Steve had said down below, I don't have a big feeling of 91L or 92L developing, but 93L could be another story if the 92L and 91L pave the way forward. 92L has the better chance than 91L I think. But again, it would be interesting to see all three of these waves develop and become Harvey, Irma, and Jose. I've always felt Jose would be an ominous name, so if 91L becomes Harvey and 92L becomes Irma, then 93L (wave about to emerge) could be Jose and become our first real Cape Verde hurricane this season. Owen 01:59, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * If you're still confused, this one's at 30/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:41, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 40/50 now like 91L. This might only be a TS at most due to upcoming upper-level winds north of the Lessers. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 70/70. The Atlantic is becoming active again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:45, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow, this organized faster than I thought. I'd be upset if this steals the name Irma before it gets ripped apart by the ULL northwest of Hispaniola early next week, but if that happens there's not much we can do about it. Ryan1000 02:54, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 60/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:02, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * A TD could still be possible, but Irma is pushing it. I see Irma coming from the wave further out in the eastern Atlantic. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:57, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 50/50. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:26, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still hope it briefly becomes a TD... don't want this to go down in history as a pathetic bust. Conditions are still marginally conducive, but upper-level winds are trying to rip this apart. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:10, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, this one flopped. It's now down to 30/40. I doubt it would form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:45, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 20/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:09, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down again to 10/30, but the NHC notes that conditions could become more favorable when it nears the Bahamas. Maybe 92L becoming Irma is possible after all. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:35, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

(←)Like Gert, Invest 92L has a better shot at developing as it moves further north. However, shear is quite high in the Atlantic north of the Caribbean, and depending on where this invest veers, it may not become tropical. Nevertheless, I will not be surprised if Invest 92L is retroactively classified as a tropical cyclone, as the NHC mentioned multiple times that even a slight increase in organization would have prompted tropical cyclogenesis. Also, regarding the infamous "I" curse to which Owen alluded below, I hope it continues this year! If it does not, it will be the first time that three consecutive "I" storms failed to reach hurricane intensity since Isabel '85, Isaac '88, and Iris '89. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:29, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now down to 10/20. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:15, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 10/30. Anything can still happen (like what Emily did earlier in the season), but I am not that optimistic that 10L/Irma will come out of this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:19, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * I can actually see a brief TS occurring near Florida by midweek. Although if it does develop it won't be very strong at all. The "I" curse days are over apparently, unless this fails to develop and a powerful hurricane named "Irma" comes later in the season. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:21, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/40. But still, I doubt it would form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:14, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't cast doubt on this. Conditions are more conducive for it to develop in the next few days (especially compared to the past few days). However, development looks like it'll only be slow. This is up to 20/40 and has a chance to become a depression or Irma sometime this week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:21, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now back to 10/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:29, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * For now, looks like this could be a more western (closer to the east coast) and weaker version of Gert. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:13, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Down to 10/20. Starting to doubt development myself because it's now forecast to merge with a front by early next week. But still hoping for a brief TD. Don't want to see a newly used name wasted. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:30, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 10/30. It's been too long, 92L... form now please :( Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * 10/40. I think we will get Irma out of this but it will be either a TS/minor Cat 1 as it goes up the Eastern Seaboard and out to sea. Don't think the I curse will be happening this year. --Whiplash (talk) 19:20, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * I can say Irma dodged it (so far). Had 04L became Don, Hurricane Harvey would've been named Irma instead. Anyway, this invest tested our patience; reminds me of Hermine last year and Gert earlier this month. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * You're right, this is like Hermine and Gert. Strong upper-level winds are currently limiting development but a brief Irma is possible before the front merger happens. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:30, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/50. I could easily say that this will maybe be Subtropical Storm Irma. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/40. I don't know anymore. I'm getting tired of this invest, honestly. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:58, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 40/50, there is a decent chance of development. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 17:54, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Being really focused on Harvey the past couple of days, I didn't really care for this invest. But it looks like it could actually have a decent chance at Irma before the cold front merger occurs mid-week. Like Anon 2.0 said, I'm also getting sick of this invest. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:03, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Code Red. 70/70 now, and I think PTC 10 is coming at 5 pm to put the tropical storm watches out for the coastal areas. Owen 18:02, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, hopefully PTC 10 by 21z, about time too! Kiewii 19:23, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten
And it's here. Forecast to briefly become Irma before skimming the Carolina coasts. Ryan1000 20:56, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally 92L will become Irma (after a very long wait). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:52, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm Watch issued for parts of the Carolinas. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:31, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally it's becoming something. Future-Irma is about to turn toward the Carolinas and they could see heavy rain there. Hope no damages or deaths occur. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:30, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, after two weeks of crossing the Atlantic and moving very slowly across Florida, I was getting quite doubtful that Invest 92L would become anything. But it's now very close to becoming a tropical cyclone. If the NHC can locate a closed circulation, this system will make the transition. Chances of cyclogenesis are now 90% for both the next 48 hours and five days. Winds are currently approximately 30 knots (35 mph), with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa). Similar to Harvey, Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten will be moving rather slowly near the coastline for the next couple days, before a trough accelerates the system out to sea. Based on the latest NHC forecast discussion, shear around Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten may decrease just enough to prompt the formation of a tropical storm, but I personally would not mind if it stayed at its current intensity. Surf and precipitation will likely cause minor disruptions along the Carolinian coastline. However, the forecast rainfall totals of two to four inches are quite a relief to hear when compared with the historic totals being recorded from Harvey. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:45, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

1AM advisory: 1007 mbars, 35 mph. Currently stationary. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:55, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Ten's still not developing because it's poorly organized. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Gah, this is still poorly organized. NHC is now saying that its chances to become a tropical storm is diminishing... wyd 92L... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:14, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * 92L's winds have gone up to TS force but the chances of it forming have dropped to 60%, it's possible we may have the first PTC that the NHC issued advisories on that didn't become a named storm, if this fails to become Irma. Ryan1000 00:54, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Given the apocalypse unfolding in Texas from Harvey, I am totally fine with Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten never making the transition to a tropical storm. The system still has approximately a day to become something, but due to increasing shear, this is becoming more unlikely by the minute. It is also being steered to the northeast and will only move faster in coming days, which will likely prevent any significant strengthening. Nevertheless, winds have increased to 35 knots (40 mph), and the pressure has fallen slightly to 1006 mbar (hPa). Aside from the three-to-nine inch rainfall totals being forecasted for the Carolinas and southeastern Virginia, I personally doubt that Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten will be anything more than a gloomy day for those areas. On a side note, what will the next tropical depression be called if this system does not become tropical? Will the new depression be classified as Tropical Depression Ten, or will the NHC simply move on to the 11L designation? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:50, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is a big disappointment. I really wanted this to become "Irma" due to the fact that this invest was tracked for so long and already came close to being classified a while back in the open Atlantic before upper-level winds struck. Without it becoming Irma, this will honestly go down as the most busted invest in history. Plus, it peaked at 90/90 when it was classified as a PTC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:03, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

Aoi: New wave over Western Africa
Assuming 91L becomes Harvey, this wave will be Irma. But boy, if this becomes Irma, we could see the "I" curse restart. Models are getting excited with this one. You know the NHC means business when they identify a wave 2 days from emerging. IF conditions permit, especially with the help of a strong Kelvin wave, I'm willing to go as far saying that this future system (Irma?) may become our first major of the season. Owen 00:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at 10/20. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * I predict this is going to be the big one. Also, it's 0/20 and expected to emerge into the ocean tomorrow. Regardless of what name it receives, it could turn out to be a big threat in the very long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:54, August 15, 2017 (UTC)

Believe it or not, there's a third area of invest behind the one above. 91L is down to 20/40, and the above one is at 10/20, but a third is coming off the coast and is also at 0/20. I don't believe all 3 of these will form, but we're almost certain to see one or two of them develop by next week or so. Ryan1000 13:40, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm kind of confused on these AOIs, but I assume this is the 30/40 one in the middle (since this one appeared on the TWO later than the one over Africa). I personally prefer the wave over Africa to become Harvey, as these two waves currently out in the open Atlantic will become nothing more than TSs if they develop due to unfavorable conditions they are expected to encounter. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:57, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * No, Steve, the section above this one actually was referring to this wave coming off Africa. I believe Ryan got them confused because 91L actually split off into those two different AOI's. I'll fix it to clear the confusion made.  Owen 01:51, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, right. So this one's still at 0/20. I kinda got confused in the beginning. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:39, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * That's interesting, it seemed that the NHC was tracking a third wave off of Africa, but I didn't think 91L had split into two different systems. Either way, I highly doubt both of them will develop, as conditions aren't favorable enough in their path, if I recall correctly something like this happened the last time this naming list was used in 2011 as well, and neither of them developed. However, the one trailing behind them might become something big, both of the global models make that storm a major hurricane in the long run, but fortunately recurve it before reaching the east coast, and Bermuda, hopefully it stays that way. Ryan1000 05:36, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Currently 0/40. This is becoming exciting, I am highkey hoping that all of them will form and become named though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:44, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * My bad Owen, I got confused due to Ryan posting this wave under another heading that mentioned the same wave, leading me to think that this was the middle AOI. Anyway, this looks likely to be the season's first major. The Atlantic is really exploding it looks like. At this rate, we could match 2010 through 2012's activity and I won't even be surprised if we can surpass that and at least tie 1933. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:56, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:46, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * This has the biggest chance at being Irma and possibly another hurricane. I hope it isn't any major threat in the very long run, although it's a bit too early to tell. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:59, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/30. Probably won't develop. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:53, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * What a shame. Well, it could still develop because it has until the middle of next week before upper-level winds strike. From now until then, conditions will be somewhat conducive for this to at least become a TD. Really hope it is not a name-stealing Irma that is like a Jova-esque fail. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My E dits  📧  04:15, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/20. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:08, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * I highly doubt this will form. Down again to 10/10 as upper-level winds threaten the existence of it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * I was never too excited about this AOI. It still has the potential to develop slightly more over the next few days, but I doubt that it will become a tropical cyclone before conditions become more unfavorable next week. Regarding overall season activity, 2017 received its eighth storm before any other season except 1936, 2005, and 2012, per Phil Klotzbach. If either Invest 92L or this AOI manages a tropical storm before tomorrow, it will be the second-earliest ninth storm formation on record, behind only 2005's Irene. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I have lost every last bit of hope for this AOI. Dry air and wind shear are major problems. Irma should come later, either out of 92L or an even later storm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is down to 0/0. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:18, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * And off the TWO it goes. Tbh, it busted. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:23, August 21, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave Over Western Africa
This one is about to emerge from Africa into the Atlantic. It's at 0/20. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 18:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be Jose assuming 92L finally develops into Irma before that one merges with a cold front mid-week. I have a feeling that something formidable could come from this wave. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:06, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lmao GFS has a Category 3-4 striking near me in Atlantic Canada in 2 weeks time with this system. I mean this is my reaction:  XD (Still too far out to predict with any accuracy but I mean wtf... --Whiplash (talk) 05:27, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Always felt the name Jose would one day be used for something ominous, even though the 2011 one was that pathetic naked swirl. If this verifies, we have another monster hurricane setting its sites on the East Coast and Atlantic Canada long term. But I would say personally this wave is beginning to already have rotation over Africa and with the way the ridge is building, it sounds more like an Ike situation actually. I hope I'm wrong, that's the last thing the US would need after Harvey but it's also only August and the waters are warm. Owen 05:33, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Or this could be Irma instead, depending on 92L's fluctuating formation chances. If that's the case, we might see the continuation of the "I" curse this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:55, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh well, this will become Jose (if it doesn't go bust just like the AOI above). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:55, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Really feel that this will be ominous. It has got a lot of ocean along the future path. Hope it is nothing devastating in the very long run. If an "Ike situation" that Owen said materializes, it could even reach the same area as Harvey which is totally not acceptable. P.S. I once made a prediction on Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki about "Jose" being an extremely deadly and destructive system. It is here. That prediction is very, very unrealistic. But in an "Ike situation", I kind of fear that future "Jose" could actually take a similar path to that prediction (but likely not going into Mexico). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:38, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS takes this meandering over the central Atlantic over the next week or two without affecting land, but the Euro takes this heading WNW north of the Antilles and potentially hitting south Florida as a strong major hurricane in two weeks; if a cat 4 or 5 comes into Miami it would easily exceed Katrina's damage total as the costliest U.S. hurricane ever, due to the immense amount of property directly along the southeastern Florida coastline. Ryan1000 01:34, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:44, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * This one very unfortunately looking more and more like a potential Ike situation or even Andrew situation. I believe with Ike's path inititally model runs took the hurricane into Miami. God forbid, imagine it went into Miami and into New Orleans or a setup to where a trough could bring this thing to the northeast after crossing into the GOM taking it into Tampa (my city I live in, and most overdue city right now for a hurricane strike) which I just don't want to think of potential scenarios with this especially after Harvey. But what we are seeing here is a formula for the most destructive season since 2005, and the potential for Harvey and what would be Jose to be the costliest hurricanes on record (both in a single season). Hope I'm wrong. Owen 10:29, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Up to 30/70 and invested. I really don't like what the ECMWF is showing right now. At least the GFS makes this a fish. (Random horrible thought: if this strikes Florida or the Carolinas 2 weeks out on 11 September we may have one of the worst coincidences in US history. Actually why am I even thinking of this.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:57, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * The models were agressive with Harvey before it formed, then they backed off until the runs that took it into Texas days before, and if the Euro nails this one and it does hit the east coast a monster hurricane, then Harvey, as damaging as he is, may be rivaled himself. I know it's 10 days out but this season is definitely ramping up and with the position of the Bermuda high and active Cape Verde waves, we may have a string of damaging storms hitting the U.S. this  year. Ryan1000 14:28, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

As NHC is now saying that 92L may not develop into a TS, well I think we might see a continuation of the "I" curse this year. Maybe Irma dodged it when 4L did not become strong enough to become Don (thus making 9L receive the name Harvey), but if PTC Ten/92L won't develop, I guess Irma can also be destructive (especially if it hits land). I hope that this system will stay in the open Atlantic though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:18, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the GFS has been tracking farther west towards the U.S. and Atlantic Canada as well, or at least hitting Bermuda as a strong hurricane. All of the latest runs from the Euro make this a cat 4/5 pointed at south Florida, and the HWRF also expects this to be strong and heading towards Florida in the long run as well. It may be a long way out but it's something to watch out for. Up to 50/80 and it could become a depression as soon as tomorrow. Ryan1000 00:54, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

Please, please no. Harvey is bad enough. A Cat 5 hitting South Florida would be just as bad. This season is starting to scare the crap out of me. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 01:27, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * As I mentioned earlier in Harvey's section, the United States's luck with no major hurricanes was bound to end some day. Harvey will hopefully be a reminder that worse will come our way in the next few decades. Moreover, given how active the MDR has been this year (case in point Bret, Don, and Harvey), I am not surprised that the models are going crazy with this system. This is almost like 2004, which started off very quiet but soon produced long-lived beasts, namely Frances and Ivan. Chances of formation for Invest 93L are now 50% for the next 48 hours and 80% for the next five days. Steve, as I commented previously, you seem to have some good fortune-telling skills with this season. On a side note, while we are talking about devastating storms, let me repeat an infamous saying that SkyFury would always say at this time of the year: BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:07, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements. Andros 1337 (talk) 04:34, June 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 10% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 25% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS.  T G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#889">0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Franklin miraculously caused no fatalities in Mexico. There is almost no chance of retirement. The only damage from Franklin was minimal.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#449">5% - Two people drowned from rip currents in the United States, which is very sad. Gert defied all of the forecasts, becoming not a Category 1 hurricane, but a Category 2 hurricane! I thought that Gert wouldn't be any stronger than a strong TS, but I was very wrong. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#500">100% - First time in my life I've ever gave a storm a 100% chance before any damage totals were released. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 17:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Opinions
(Retirement colors:  <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) '''

Notes:
 * A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

Retirement predictions and grades begin here:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Gets a lot of grading credit for its impressive and unusual formation in April. If this occurred at a typical time of year, the grade would have been MUCH lower. Stayed out to sea, so no retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#F00">F  - Struck a somewhat unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect); both the deaths and location could up the retirement chance a tad bit. Its unusual location for June saves the storm's grade from being lower than what I gave. Still a fail though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#0F0">20%, <font color="#F80">D+ - Caused plenty of flooding in the Midwest and the Gulf region around Texas/Louisiana as well as 3 deaths (2 direct,1 indirect). Full damage totals aren't out yet as of the time I typed this, but the U.S. has been through MUCH worse tropical storms (like Allison 2001 for example). Chances could go up or down from 20% after I see released damage tolls.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">F-   - Failed to redeem itself after 2011. Call me crazy for giving 25% to a failure, but the usage of the name garnered negative media attention and I'd give a 1/4 chance that this will receive the Isis, Adolph, etc treatment and be retired. The chance could be even higher, but this type of retirement has never occurred in the Atlantic, plus the NHC clarified the name is supposed to have no relationship to Trump. A 50 mph peak prevents this from getting the Z grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily :  <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#086">5%  ,  <font color="#8F0">C+  - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Retirement chances are preliminary; damage totals are currently unknown but so far there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Retirement chances could go up or down pending release of damage totals.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#086">B+  - Got stronger than what initial forecasts called for. The 2 indirect deaths from dangerous surf off the east coast won't convince anyone to request the name being retired.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#303">100%, TBA - Retired. No questions asked.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

50% or more=italics That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022, early surprises.
 * Cindy - 10% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 4% - 0.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.
 * Emily - 0% - Surprisingly formed, but sorry it's a no. You're not going anywhere.
 * Franklin - 15% - Had notable impacts, but Mexico has seen worse.
 * Gert - 0.1% - That .1% is for being an incredible fishspinner, but to be honest we'll see Gert again in 2023.
 * Harvey - 70% (final percentage once it dissipates again) - Now this is the name we will (most likely) not see in 2023. Thought to be a flop, but became a monstrous Category 4 after regenerating and made landfall in Texas at peak intensity. This may be one for the books. This is a storm that looks like a bad combination of Allison, Celia and Carla. At least 3 deaths have been reported so far, and the damage is now estimated to cost $2 billion. I just hope this won't be Texas's Sandy or Katrina, or a worse repeat of Ike.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:07, August 27, 2017 (UTC).)

Owen's Retirement Opinions

 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 20% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists.
 * Emily - 5% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
 * Franklin - 10% - With what data is available, I don't think Franklin is going to be retired. However, if a new report comes out showing significant damage, he could easily get his odds bumped.
 * Gert - 2% - Killed two people and defied the forecasts and became a beautiful C2, but it still won't be enough to be retired.
 * Harvey - 99% - FEMA says Harvey is the worst disaster in Texas history and initial damage count is already exceeding $2 billion. Harvey is definitely among one of the most costly hurricanes in US history, not sure how high he will rank, but I believe he will be up there with Katrina, Sandy, Ike, and Andrew.

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

My turn!


 * Arlene -0% Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.


 * Bret -1% Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.


 * Cindy -20% Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.


 * Don -25% Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons.


 * Emily -1% Minimal impacts.


 * Franklin -2% Still no exact damage numbers, but it doesn't seem too bad. Thankfully, there were no deaths.


 * Gert -1% Defied all forecasts by becoming almost a major hurricane. Unfortunately caused two deaths due to rip currents.

Leeboy100 Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey -99% Damage reports still haven't come in, and likely won't for a while, but the pictures and videos from Texas pretty much tell the tale, and they are horrifying. Up to 70 inches of rain could fall in the Houston area. I have to agree with you guys, there is a very distinct possibility that damage costs could rival KATRINA. And what it's done so far is already more than enough to get the name retired. At this point, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that we will never see the name Harvey used for a hurricane ever again.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Well, I made mine for the other basins, so why not here? Well, that's it...for now. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Became the first tropical storm to form in April since 2003's Ana, and it also stands alongside Estelle in the EPac as the most commonly used tropical cyclone name in the NHC's AOR track record, with this being the 11th time Arlene was used since 1959. And because Arlene didn't affect land, we're certainly going to see Arlene used again in 2023.
 * Bret - 1% - Caused minor impacts in the southern lesser antilles, with two deaths reported, and it became one of only 3 June storms in the Atlantic to form in this location, along with Ana '79 and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. But it won't be retired.
 * Cindy - 15% - Somewhat damaging storm for the southeastern U.S, but it likely won't be retired. Cindy is also the second most commonly used Atlantic storm name, after Arlene and tied with Frances (9 uses since 1959), but since Frances was retired, and Cindy won't be, we'll see her on the list for the 10th time in 2023.
 * Don - 1% - Wasn't much different than Bret. I also personally doubt he'll be removed from the naming lists just because the U.S. president happens to have the same name; if that does happen, I won't count it as a real retirement (due to impact), just like how I don't count storms like Adolph/Isis/Israel as retired names due to impact, which is what I consider here.
 * Emily - 1% - Caused minor impacts in Florida, but 96,000 dollars in damage is rather low for a U.S. landfalling TS, and it probably won't go.
 * Franklin - 10% - Fortunately, no deaths have been reported thus far from Franklin, unlike how Earl of last year killed over 90 people in Mexico, and damage probably wasn't bad enough to consider retirement.
 * Gert - 1% - It's a shame that two people were killed from Gert due to rip currents, but otherwise it didn't affect land.
 * Harvey - 100% - Still active and currently flooding Louisiana, but the figues coming out of Houston are horrific, and as terrible as it sounds, it may not be a stretch to say that this may eclipse Katrina as the costliest U.S. hurricane on record. This was Allison on crack for Texas, and Harvey will, without question, be retired after this year.

Isaac's predictions
Here's mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:41, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Everyone else - 0%.
 * Harvey - 100% - For the damage so far.

Puffle's prediction party
sorry for the cringey title (Retirement colors:  <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) ''' CREDIT TO STEVE FOR COLORS ok go: btw i wasnt rly paying attention until harvey happened
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#ff00ff">no% went in a circle and died. the end
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#02c">0.01% is this a joke. barely made landfall but eh.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#04a">1% literally landfalled in the same place as Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#dead40">fish% fish
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#02c">waitwhat% stop with the fails, and how was emily not retired
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#02c">0.01% ok
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#ff00ff">lame% fish
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey beaks  : <font color="#ff0000">Harvey% i predicted this exact thing to happen 2 years ago and look at me i won the prediction game holy crap over 10bil in damages. houston please stop flooding. also remnants please dont hit ohio
 * <font color="#ff00ff">PTC ten <font color="#02c">eclipse% started where the eclipse ended. also no because it'll be a failicia fish` if it actually becomes a storm.

Replacement names
Since Don has a fairly decent chance to go, I've set up some replacement names for him:
 * Dylan
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Drake
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dexter
 * Drew
 * Darren
 * Daryl

Post below which two names you like. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:58, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * I personally don't find Don's removal likely just because he has the same name as the U.S. president, but if he is removed for that reason, I'd like him to be replaced with Dylan. :) Also, add Darren and Daryl to those list of names. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with you Ryan. If this were to replace with Dylan, he will probably freak out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * I was going to make this comment earlier, but I will just post it here. Pardon my tone, but in my opinion, it is unlikely that Don will be retired simply because it happens to have a similar name as an incumbent U.S. president. Previous presidents and other prominent American political figures have had their names added on the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists without objection. For example, the name Georges was left on Atlantic List II despite President George H.W. Bush being head of state at the time and a presidential candidate for that year. Additionally, Bill, Madeline, Hilary, and Alberto were all used in a span of four years in lieu of potential connotations with notable Clinton administration figures (the Commander-in-Chief himself (whose birthday is today, August 19), Secretary Albright, the First Lady, and Vice President Gore, respectively). More recently, Ike and Laura were the chosen replacement names after the 2002 season, even though the former is a nickname for a former American president and the latter was the name of the wife of then president George W. Bush. Also, if we are going to remove Don, why not remove Michael, the (formal) name of our current vice president as well?
 * Nevertheless, here are five additional potential replacement names should Don be removed:


 * 1) Dusty
 * 2) Dominic
 * 3) Draco (Any Harry Potter fans?)
 * 4) Dante
 * 5) Devan


 * Also, I would consider removing Drew from your replacement name list, as some may find that name too similar to Andrew. I hope this helps!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:42, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I find it only likely that Don would be removed along with the name of Hilary. I don't think they would remove one and not remove the other. Nonetheless, my three replacement name candidates would be Dylan, Drew, or Doug. Obviously, it would be cool to see Dylan's name get added to the naming list like my name got added onto the list last year to replace Otto, or Drew being added to the list for Andrew to have a name to associate with. Doug (third preference) is also an option. Yes, the name Douglas is on the EPAC list but that hasn't stopped them from using "Frank" and "Franklin, "Daniel" and "Danny" or even "Juliette" and "Julia". Also, the name "Frederic" had been retired and the name "Fred" had appeared on the naming list years later, so yeah, like Doug, it's a possibility and can't be ruled out. All three of those names are great options. Owen 07:42, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

Don has no chance of being retired this discussion is silly. Harvey hasn't made landfall yet but pretty sure he is going to be retired so lets make some H names.

Thoughts? Any interesting ones I missed? --Whiplash (talk) 18:30, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hannibal
 * Hans
 * Hadrian
 * Handel
 * Hank
 * Harper - Personally would rather see this used for a girls name although it can be used for either.
 * Harris/Harrison
 * Hayden
 * Heath
 * Heinrich
 * Helmut
 * Henrik
 * Herb/Herbert
 * Horacio
 * Howard/Howie
 * Huey
 * Hugh
 * Hunter - Hurricane hunters chasing Hurricane Hunter lol...
 * Hyacinth - My personal fave


 * Howard was used in the Eastern Pacific last year. :/ It'll be used again in 2022, so that's out. I'd also add Harold and Henry to those names as possible replacements (note: Henri from list 1 is pronounced "ahn-ree", not "Hen-ree" so they're not as confusing as they seem despite being one letter apart). Ryan1000 19:31, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd like to see the names Heath or Hugh, but those are too similar sounding to Keith and Hugo. My best pick would be Herman or Herbert. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:44, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Herman might be confusing with Hernan, which was on the 2014 EPac list and is scheduled for 2020. Ryan1000 19:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My best picks will be Harry, Howie, Herbert, Hans, Hank or Hal. Harley will be okay, but it reminds me of Harley Quinn instead. Maybe even Hannibal, Hubert (kinda similar to Humberto though), Homer, Huey or Hayden. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My top three picks are Hayden, Harris, and Hank. Hadrian is kinda similar to Adrian though (which is on our current list for the EPac). Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 02:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Two french names I didn't think about... Honore and Hilaire. Both of which are boys names. --Whiplash (talk) 14:39, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I've always felt like Hank would be one of the first H names that the NHC would go with. It does seem like a name they'd choose. So, that's my pick. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would prefer a name that doesn't sound too/very old-fashioned. I'd prefer something more modern or timeless. I would not like that AT ALL. This naming list already sounds so old-fashioned and dated (is anyone even called "Gert" these days??) Anyway, here are my suggestions for possible "H" replacement names, since my instincs tell me Harvey is DEFO getting the boot:


 * Habib
 * Hackett
 * Haddon
 * Hadley
 * Hadrian
 * Hafiz
 * Hagan
 * Hakim
 * Hakan
 * Hal
 * Haines
 * Haile
 * Hagley
 * Hallam
 * Halstead
 * Hampton
 * Hardy
 * Hardik
 * Harald
 * Harley
 * Henrik
 * Helmut
 * Hendy
 * Henning
 * Henley
 * Hiroshi
 * Hilton
 * Homer (LOL)
 * Hopinks
 * Howie (oldish but okay I guess)
 * Hunter (HURRICANE HUNTER IS STRIKING FLORIDA can you imagine THAT being on the headlines? kek)
 * Hussain
 * Hyatt
 * Hymen
 * Hyde
 * Herrick
 * Huey
 * Hurst
 * Henrietto (LOL)
 * Henriettus (ANOTHER LOL)
 * Henriettito (HAHA KEK)
 * I must admit that H names for boys are quite old-fashioned with very little space for more modern names but I kept my list more "classic" I guess. HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 22:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

My top 3 name replacement candidates for Harvey would be Harry, Harold, and Hunter. I think Hunter would be the most likely name to be chosen. Owen 05:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't think they would choose Hunter though. People might confuse it with hurricane hunters. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

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