Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

July
I know that there still are several hours left before July, but I will begin this section slightly early. It will be interesting to see how this month develops after the impressive early season so far. I hope the AOI above becomes a tropical storm and that another named storm will develop before the end of the month. This would make 2017 the first season since 2005 to have five or more named storms before the end of July. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:28, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm going to add that AOI in this section in case it develops in July, since it'll be a July storm if it does. If not, it'll be included in the pre-season-June archive I just made. Ryan1000 23:14, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
This wave was forecast by the GFS at one point to become another pre-July or early July storm in the eastern Atlantic like Bret was, though they've backed off on it since. It's on the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook right now, but at only 10% for 5 days. However, this could become something in the Caribbean Sea later on, or even the EPac way down the road. Ryan1000 04:29, June 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO for now. Ryan1000 16:16, June 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm surprised that it isn't on the TWO yet. In 5 days, the GFS is developing a C1 hurricane traveling near Puerto Rico, The Bahamas, and slams into Newfoundland. I think we will have Don with this one, because conditions are looking very good in that time frame. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS now makes it a hurricane nearing Florida 312 hours out before turning out to sea, but that's too far out to be reliable. Still, if even the least powerful development scenario with this pans out, it'll be better than Don's flop in 2011. Ryan1000 23:18, June 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * The GFS has dropped the storm. 182.58.36.75 10:11, July 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * On the TWO now with a 0/20 chance as of now. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:00, July 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 10/40, this may become Don once it's a TS. :) 70.190.5.175 21:08, July 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 10/50. :) 70.190.5.175 22:50, July 2, 2017 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Invested and 10/60. It is really cool to see another early storm form in the MDR. I think this could become Don, as nearly all models except the ECMWF develop it. ECMWF tends to be very conservative with MDR systems, as it was the last model to develop Bret. If it does develop into Don, I wouldn't rule out hurricane strength if it can get into the western Atlantic intact and shear is low. ~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits    01:50, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * 10/70. GFS makes this a major in >10 days while recurving northeast of the Bahamas, whereas the Euro barely develops this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:02, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This kind of reminds me of Bertha '08, which formed 9 years ago on this day. If it becomes a hurricane sooner than later, it should recurve before hitting the eastern U.S, but it could be a formidable early-season storm for Bermuda or Atlantic Canada down the road. Either way, assuming this becomes Don, it'll redeem itself after failing miserably in 2011. Ryan1000 12:17, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20/70 now as of 8:00 a.m. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:22, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/70. 12Z GFS today has backed off on its intensity, but still take it north to Bermuda and Atlantic Canada in a week or two. Ryan1000 19:23, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * 40/70 on the latest TWO. :) 70.190.5.175 01:41, July 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Huge jump to 70/80, and could be Don later today since it's already producing winds close to TS status. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:40, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Both the GFS and the Euro are enthusiastic with this in the short-term with their latest runs as it's expected to pass north of the Antilles, but they've backed off on it's long-term intensity, as conditions for development won't be as favorable once it gets within the vicinity of the Bahamas or Bermuda. But it's still too far out to tell for sure. Ryan1000 13:31, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This has strong potential to be Don by tomorrow or so. It will probably be a better storm than the 2011 one if wind shear, dry air or anything else doesn't impact the storm significantly. It hasn't become better organized today, so still 70/80. I hope it's "Hurricane" Don since I want to see the name be a hurricane this time around. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:59, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Time is running out for 94L, and the NHC has dropped the chances to 70/70. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:25, July 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
Spoke too soon TG. However, NHC doesn't expect it to become a TS in their forecast track, as conditions for development are unfavorable north of the Antilles. But it could become Don before it dissipates...I wouldn't prefer it though, as Don already flopped last time in 2011, if this becomes Don it will too. Ryan1000 03:35, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unexpectedly, it just intensified into a TD although it had a lower chance of forming (60/60). The system is forecasted to last for a couple of days until it's a remnant low without intensifying into a TS. That means we'll have to wait for the next system to be named Don. It's currently at 30 mph (25 kn)/1009 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:39, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Don't rely on the NHC forecast too much. I saw the model intensity guidance at Tropical Tidbits, which is in the image to the right. Some guidance takes Four to TS strength and one even takes it to be a formidable C1 hurricane (labelled TCLP, I would not trust that one). I really hope this is not Don as it cannot strengthen significantly with all the unfavorable conditions lying around. This will only be a massive epic failure disgrace that just steals a name off the list if it did strengthen to 40 mph and defied the NHC forecast (unless it pulls off TCLP's forecast which is probably not gonna happen). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:48, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 1008 mbar, otherwise no change. Dry air is already starting to wrap into the northern parts of the circulation, so I don't think this will intensify much further. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:43, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * If this does become Don, I wouldn't care right now if it is a name-stealer. It is usually really rare to have an extremely strong storm in July. 2005 was the exception. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:10, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 1009 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 02:41, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC is calling it a "small, tenacious depression" in their latest forecast discussion, but it's continuing to weaken as it heads WNW, pressure now up to 1011 mbars. It seems better organized, but due to its small size it's very prone to outside atmospheric conditions. Dry air is a serious problem with the intensity of this system, as it has quite a lot of it to go through. Ryan1000 10:59, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * "...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY..." Either TD 4 gets its act together or, pending post-analysis, it becomes the first Atlantic TD since the 16th of 2008 to peak below 30 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:22, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

Man, this thing is just getting ripped apart. Not likely to even become a tropical storm. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:10, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression Four
And it didn't. Downgraded to a tropical wave, and I've heard it has very little, if any, chances of redeveloping. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:39, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Bit of an impressive convective blowup going on currently with no mention on NHC's TWO. Looked to me in the latest ASCAT passes that the remnants were trying to form a circulation and close it off and winds are definitely stronger now than when it was classified. If this convection holds as it begins its journey into a bit more favorable conditions, ex-TD4 has a chance to become Don still in my eyes. Will see what NHC thinks in the 2am update. Owen 03:23, July 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I will definitely not be surprised if this could pull of a Gabrielle and become a tropical storm suddenly after dissipating as a TD. I'm still surprised it is not on the TWO, but a Hurricane Hunters mission is going to investigate the system to figure out if it has regenerated by tonight. T  G  2 0 1 7 17:31, July 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Remnants are now north of Hispaniola/Puerto Rico and it hasn't regenerated yet, but may still have a chance to regenerate and possibly even be Don by the weekend. NHC still is not mentioning it at all (except for a brief statement in the Tropical Weather Discussion) and it still does not look very organized on satellite. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:54, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:Over Africa
Since yesterday, the GFS and Euro have been developing a fairly intense hurricane moving through the Caribbean. Both models show the depression forming in 6-7 days and one takes it into Central America. I'm not fully sure yet, but this could overturn the TD 4 upset. T G  2 0 1 7 13:04, July 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd take 200 (or 300 from yesterday) hour forecasts with a grain of salt, from either of the global models, also it's still way too early to tell for sure. The 12z Euro dropped it today. Since this is currently a low pressure system by the African coast, let's call it that for now. Might show up on the TWO next week when it gets further in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 04:23, July 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Somehow this isn't on the TWO yet, even though the GFS already forecasts this to become a TS in less than 120 hours. ECMWF doesn't show anything, but it usually struggles with genesis in the MDR. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:49, July 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * On the Two now with 0/20. Looking pretty likely to develop. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:34, July 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * GFS likes this storm very much...predicting it to be a major hurricane striking Hispaniola and later southeast US.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:09, July 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Euro is still fairly unenthusiastic about this, but the GFS is becoming increasingly aggressive, now predicting a powerful major hurricane landfall in South Carolina and later turning northeast to pass over new England. Granted, the 18Z from today is still 10 days in advance and a lot of things could change, but even if the worst doesn't happen with this, we're looking much more likely to see Don come from this AOI than TD 4 earlier. Ryan1000 03:39, July 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * 18Z GFS today has backed down on this storm considerably, barely developing it at all through the Caribbean and GoM, unlike what was shown earlier. Still early, but it's something worth mentioning. Ryan1000 23:19, July 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/10. I doubt this one would form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:36, July 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO, and here's a nice summary of that. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:21, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol xD. This wave is a wasted AOI and now looks almost dissipated on satellite. Meanwhile, there is a wave with what appears to be much more convection south of Cape Verde, but I haven't checked what models think of that. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:00, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Central MDR
Looks like this little guy popped up out of nowhere..up on the TWO at 10/20. Not really expecting anything from this tbh. --MarioProtIV (talk) 23:34, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * The NHC noted that this AOI is rather close to some dry air. In addition, approximately 20 to 40 knots of shear are very close to this system as well. Even if the AOI manages to survive these unfavorable conditions, it will then face the graveyard that is currently the Caribbean Sea. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Now upgraded, but it doesn't have much of a chance to become anything much, due to all the dry air. Leeboy100 Hello! 13:07, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 20/40 at latest TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 17:01, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wunderground currently does not show Invest 95L on their active systems map, but Jeff Masters mentioned it in his latest blog post. The nearby Saharan Air Layer is still impeding this system's development, and despite otherwise favorable conditions, will likely not become anything stronger than a tropical storm if tropical cyclogenesis occurs. Additionally, the latest NHC TWO mentioned the possibility of a recon mission tomorrow afternoon. However, I doubt that the flight will find any significant new information regarding 95L. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:33, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Due to the SAL, I'm just going to say that this will not become much at all. If it does develop, a weak name-stealing TS may be the most we'll ever get. I have really been hoping the name "Don" redeems itself this year after its 2011 fail incarnation. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:20, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol same. I want Don to be a decent or strong hurricane this year rather then a weak TS. Hopefully we can just get a re-94L/04L or, even better, a strong wave at the most (aka 80/80 fail). --MarioProtIV (talk) 19:20, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Haven't seen an 80% AOI bust in a while, but this doesn't have much of a chance down the road due to the hostile shear in the eastern Caribbean, which is normal for early-season. If it becomes something, it would have to get it's act together fast before it reaches the Antilles, which is doubtful. EPac seems to be the main focus for the tropics right now. Ryan1000 22:41, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Increased to 30/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:21, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * 40/50 now. I think this will be the one to become Don. Don't think it will survive into the Caribbean though due to the unfavorable conditions ahead. Owen 06:48, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * 50/50, and recon is scheduled for this afternoon (going by EDT). ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:13, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Don
The NHC will be issuing advisories starting at 5:00 p.m. for Tropical Storm Don. T G  2 0 1 7 20:40, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is a bit unfortunate...looks like Don won't be doing much better than his 2011 incarnation, as there's hostile shear in the Caribbean that'll tear him up in a few days. Ryan1000 20:45, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * I was really hoping it could get to at least 60 mph... seems like this storm is worse then 2011's lame excuse of Don. --MarioProtIV (talk) 21:04, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, that may be so, this Don is only forecast to hit 45 mph before strong shear in the eastern Caribbean tears him up within 3 days. Ryan1000 21:14, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * There was a recent hot tower that just formed over the COC (keep in mind its DMIN rn so), so lets see if this will aid in strengthening. --MarioProtIV (talk) 21:22, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unless the hot tower is a sign of an upcoming quick intensification phase during the next day or so  in the current favorable environment (low shear and warm water as mentioned in the discussion), it looks like the 2017 Don will be just as bad or even worse than the 2011 version. Otherwise, we will have to write this off as another name-wasting Don. I hope the name "Don" is used for a more powerful storm in 2023. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  00:27, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I think it will probably be a failure (unless it becomes a strong TS [unlikely] or a Cat. 1 [very unlikely]). The intensity is at 45 mph/1009 mbar. It should be reaching its peak now. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:50, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Scratch that. NHC now forecasts Don to reach 60 mph which would actually still make it stronger than the 2011 incarnation. I personally don't think it's impossible for Don to become a hurricane (props to HWRF if he does) but we need to start seeing some really good banding and time is against that. SAL and shear should begin to diminish next month and storms like Bret, TD4, Don could become more serious problems later this season. Owen 03:10, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 50 mph. Tropical storm warnings in effect for Grenada & Saint Vincent. TS watch in place for Barbados, St. Lucia & Bonaire. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:25, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Interestingly, half the guidance now forecasts this to become a hurricane. IMO it's very unlikely. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:24, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Weakened to 35 kt/1011 mbar. Expected to die off tomorrow. :( T  G  2 0 1 7 15:05, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Is now 40mph covfefe 5.10.94.220 23:01, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * 35 kt is 40 mph... T  G  2 0 1 7 00:13, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Don is soon about to fall flat on its face in the Great Eastern Caribbean Shear. Looks like we have another weak Don that performed as badly as its 2011 incarnation. It is hitting the Windwards currently, and any impacts there should hopefully be minimal to nonexistent. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  02:52, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Don
...aaaaaand it is dead. Bye fail! ;) The name "Don" better be used for an awesome storm in the 2023 season. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:22, July 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, I guess it's ok to say...Don voyage. Till next time. Ryan1000 10:02, July 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Zzzzzzz. At least it was stronger than Bret. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:47, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Aoi: New disturbance behind 95L
NHC now mentioning this newly formed area of disturbed weather behind Invest 95L. This one will move more to the northwest rather than the low-rider track that 95L will be making. I can actually see Don coming from 95L and Emily coming from what would be 96L if this one gets to be invested. Note that if both Don and Emily form accordingly, we will be ahead of 2011 at this time. EPAC, the Atlantic is finally coming for you! Owen 06:48, July 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at 20/30 on latest TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:28, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be Emily if conditions are favorable enough in the long run. I do not want another name-stealer, but with the way the Atlantic environment is pre-August... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  00:31, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 30/40 on the latest TWO. Forecast to (re)curve northward (to the open sea). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:34, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * I really hope this will be Emily. It will probably be better than what Don is doing right now. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:48, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 30/30 and conditions are expected to become unfavorable after two days. Unless it does a big organization stunt, a TD, let alone Emily, will have to wait. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:55, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/10, no longer forecast to develop. Ryan1000 20:43, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:30, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * This had limited time, anyway. Emily will come in August IMO. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:18, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:Off Africa
A new area of invest is up on the TWO, this one is off Africa and at 0/20. The global models don't seem to do much with this in the long run though...at least not right now. Ryan1000 17:57, July 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/30. I hope this becomes Emily. I really hope this will give the Atlantic its time to shine. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:54, July 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope Emily occurs here as well. It would help spice up the Atlantic basin and prepare us more for what is to come. The Atlantic is always a pain to track in July, but this storm could be the beginning of the active phase (I hope). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:44, July 27, 2017 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
This AOI was invested, but then shortly after its chances of development on the TWO were reduced to 0/20 and the NHC sounds unenthusiastic about it developing. That and lack of model support makes me think this won't develop at all. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 17:22, July 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off of the TWO. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:19, July 28, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:Near Cabo Verde Islands
New AOI on the TWO at 0/20. It does seem to have some model support, but not a huge amount. Notably the ECWMF shows at least a tropical depression. (Edited as I determined that this is not 97L) ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:34, July 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Conditions are not particularly supportive due to the SAL (and likely strong shear even further in its path when it might enter the eastern Caribbean). If this does develop, expect a weak TS at most. This basin probably won't ramp up until mid-August unless the season pulls off a 2013 (hope not). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:34, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * This AOI is now at 0/30. No models make this more than a weak TS, although the GFS shows it developing within 12 hours... not happening. At the very least this will help clear out the SAL for later waves. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:23, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now down to 0 / 10. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:28, July 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yeah, nothing's gonna come from this wave. Too much shear and SAL. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 12:43, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:West of Florida
Another AOI on the TWO, which should be watched closely. The NHC notes a small possibility of tropical development on the tail end of a cold front, and systems like this often spin up suddenly and unexpectedly. We could see a TS suddenly spin up within the next couple days as this tracks northeast. It's at 10/20 right now. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:23, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 20/30. This may become Emily (or Franklin if the system above becomes a TS first) if it intensifies into a TS. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 19:28, July 30, 2017 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Now an invest. This could possibly form before crossing Florida and cause larger impacts there than just heavy rain. The good news is that there is a good amount of shear working against it, which should stop it from rapidly intensifying into even a hurricane. Nevertheless, we could see Emily out of this. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:07, July 30, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Emily, maybe not, but TD 6, yes. Should cross Florida soon and enter into the Atlantic. It's not expected to become Emily after that though. Ryan1000 11:16, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Emily
She's unexpectedly did it. 40 kt/1005 mbar. Could restrengthen more after it wreaks havoc on Florida. T G  2 0 1 7 12:09, July 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well... That happened. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow, I thought this might form fast, but not that fast! Hello, Emily! Please wait to strengthen more after crossing Florida, though... ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 12:41, July 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * I have no words. This thing intensified so fast. Emily is expected to degenerate weaken to a low after crossing Florida, but is also expected to regenerate to a TS off Georgia and the Carolinas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:03, July 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * EDIT: Thanks for correcting me TG. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:08, July 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Um, this isn't going to degenerate. It is going to weaken and then restrengthen. Those are two different things. Anyway, Emily is a dangerous threat to Florida, and Emily's slow-ish movement could lead to major flooding. My best friend just now got to Tampa, and they're already seeing some fairly heavy rain/ponding. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:44, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements. Andros 1337 (talk) 04:34, June 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 10% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 25% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS.  T G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Opinions
(Retirement colors: <font color="#006">-∞% , <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) ''' (Notes: A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely, used for either the best possible win storms or the worst possible failures. Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)). The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower.)


 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Gets a lot of grading credit for its impressive and unusual formation in April. If this occurred at a typical time of year, the grade would have been MUCH lower. Stayed out to sea, so no retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#F00">F  - Struck a somewhat unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect); both the deaths and location could up the retirement chance a tad bit. Its unusual location for June saves the storm's grade from being lower than what I gave. Still a fail though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#0F0">20%, <font color="#F80">D+ - Caused plenty of flooding in the Midwest and the Gulf region around Texas/Louisiana as well as 3 deaths (2 direct,1 indirect). Full damage totals aren't out yet as of the time I typed this, but the U.S. has been through MUCH worse tropical storms (like Allison 2001 for example). Chances could go up or down from 20% after I see released damage tolls.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">F-   - Failed to redeem itself after 2011. Call me crazy for giving 25% to a failure, but the usage of the name garnered negative media attention and I'd give a 1/4 chance that this will receive the Isis, Adolph, etc treatment and be retired. The chance could be even higher, but this type of retirement has never occurred in the Atlantic, plus the NHC clarified the name is supposed to have no relationship to Trump. A 50 mph peak prevents this from getting the Z grade.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

50% or more=italics

That's it for now. Ciao mates! :) 70.190.5.175 04:28, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022.
 * Cindy - 10% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 5% - 1.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Owen's Retirement Opinions

 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 20% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists.

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)