Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season

August
New month, new storms. Here we go! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:37, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
New invest spotted by JTWC near Nalgae/13W. Low chance of formation as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:12, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
And another invest is spotted by JTWC after a brief period of inactivity in the WPac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:03, August 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at a high chance of formation. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:45, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14W
Just upgraded. JTWC already puts 14W as a tropical storm. This storm already looks like a TS, and could be Banyan very soon. T G  2 0 1 7 10:49, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Banyan
And JMA immediately followed suit. Not expected to become a typhoon. Archetypal fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:11, August 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * The intensity is at 40 mph/1004 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:24, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensified into 50 mph on 10-min and 60 mph on 1-min. Pressure down to 998 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:06, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well this formed quickly. JTWC forecasts a weak typhoon (up to 85 knots) but I think it might have minor potential to become the equivalent of a major hurricane if it defies the forecast. It's currently near Wake Island, but other than that this is just going to spin fish. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:59, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, this suddenly intensified. Would love to see this become a typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:24, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Banyan
Wow, this is really unexpected! Banyan is almost poised to become a typhoon now. Banyan is at 60 mph/992 mbar right now. T G  2 0 1 7 11:29, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 65 mph/990 mbar. Could become a typhoon by the end of the day. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:27, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. T G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, 0.01% , 1% , 5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 25% , 30% , 35% , 40% , 45% , 50% , 55% , 60% , 65% , 70% , 75% , 80% , 85% , 90% , 95% , 99% , 100%  ) (Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++ , A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5  )

International names:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 80% - Nanmadol caused more damage and caused the same amount of fatalities as Typhoon Nabi did, and it got retired. Yes, other storms that struck Japan like Talas didn't cause as much damage but caused more fatalities. When it comes to Japan, damage is the key factor for retirement.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#049">15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : Grade: <font color="#049">A+++++ Retirement: 0% - From a Category 1 minimal typhoon to a Category 5 super typhoon. It didn't seem possible to me, but it happened. Best storm I have ever witnessed.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: 40% - Sonca struck Indochina very hard for being so weak. Due to Sonca's slow movement, 30-40+ deaths have been reported in that region. Sonca also caused some of the worst flooding in Thailand in years. Due to those statistics, there is a moderate chance of Sonca being retired, but due to Thailand's track record, it is likely that Sonca won't be retired.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - Nesat was a very minimal typhoon that struck Taiwan, and didn't do much damage.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Caused some damage in Taiwan and China after Nesat did, increasing damage totals in Taiwan from both storms.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Nalgae failed to meet the forecast peak intensity. Nalgae didn't affect any land, so Nalgae will be back in 2022-2024.

PAGASA names:
 * All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
50% or more=italics

Here goes nothing...

International PAGASA That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:04, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

JMA names

 * Muifa - 0% - see you again in 5-7 years.
 * Merbok - 0% - same as above.
 * Nanmadol - 35% - if Nabi '05 got retired for causing similar death toll and cost of damage (30+ fatalities and nearly $1 billion damage), it is likely that Nanmadol may be retired. However, Talas '11 did not get retired, so I am doubtful if Nanmadol gets retired.
 * Talas - 10% - damaging, but Vietnam and the rest of Indochina has seen worse. (Also, its 2011 incarnation was more notable than this one.)
 * Noru - 8% - one of the best storms of the season. 2 deaths so far, damage still unknown, but uonestly Japan has seen worse. (Nanmadol '17 was even worse)
 * Kulap - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Roke - 5% - made impact, but not quite notable.
 * Sonca - 15% - see Talas. (Plus the fact that the retirement record of Indochina countries are not that good.)
 * Nesat - 20% - made impact too, and the damage totals are not yet fully reported. Its 2011 incarnation, just like Talas, was more significant in terms of impact. China has seen worse though.
 * Haitang - 10% - same with Nesat, although much weaker.
 * Nalgae - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Banyan - TBA - still active.

PAGASA names

 * Auring to Fabian: 0%. No, just no. See y'all in 2021
 * Gorio: 15%. Notable, but the Philippines had seen worse episodes of the enhanced SW monsoon. Maring '13 (Trami '13) wasn't retired, so why retire Gorio?
 * Huaning: 0%. Little impact to the Philippines.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, August 11, 2017 (UTC).

Retirements from Steve
Haven't done this here since 2015, but here you go.

(Retirement colors: <font color="#006">-∞% , <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) '''

Notes:
 * A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
 * The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower, since it's way too obvious that they won't be retired.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

INTERNATIONAL NAMES
 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : <font color="#02C">0.01%, <font color="#A00">F- - Affected the Caroline Islands, but without damage/deaths. It lasted a week, which prevents me from giving this the "Z" grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : <font color="#086">5%, <font color="#F80">D+ - South China has been through much worse, so don't expect a retirement here.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : <font color="#F60">65%, <font color="#F50">D - Has a pretty decent chance at retirement due to the damage and deaths it caused in Japan.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#F50">D - Although it caused 14 deaths and quite a bit of damage, I don't forsee this being retired.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#006">A+++(x∞)  - One of the most awesome storms I have ever seen, becoming the 3rd longest lasting WPac storm on record as well as really unexpectedly becoming a C5 super typhoon during an explosive intensification stunt. 2 reported deaths, but damage should not be too bad. Retirement chances could increase pending the release of damage totals.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#F20">D- - A weakling, but defied forecasts and lasted for a week. This gives it a barely passing grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#F00">F - Although a failure, it reached a low pressure for a 40 mph storm as well as caused some impacts and deaths. Not as destructive as Talas though, but more deadly. The deaths from flooding and stuff could give this a slight shot at retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : <font color="#02C">0.01%, <font color="#A00">F- - Pathetic failure, but affected land and lasted two days.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#8F0">C+ - Not much damage caused
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not quite an epic failure, but was weak nonetheless. Caused more damage in the region Nesat hit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae :  <font color="#00F">0% ,  <font color="#A00">F-  - Weak fishie that was quite pathetic.

PAGASA NAMES


 * All names: <font color="#00F">0% - None meet the requirements yet.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:19, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Might as well make some calls:

JMA names: PAGASA Names: Ryan1000 22:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Muifa - 1% - Only minor effects to some islands in the WPac. It'll be back in ~6 years.
 * Merbok - 6% - Caused some damage to southern China but they've snubbed worse storms than this.
 * Nanmadol - 40% - Somewhat notable storm for Japan, though I'm not sure if this'll be retired. They did snub a few storms that were worse, but we'll see.
 * Talas - 5% - Wasn't too bad for Vietnam.
 * Noru - 25% - Temporary percentage; currently the damage isn't known yet, but fortunately the death toll is low, even lower than Nanmadol.
 * Kulap - 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Sonca - 5% - Not much different from Talas.
 * Roke - 1% - Even less than Merbok, and that's not going either.
 * Nesat - 5% - Caused some damage to Taiwan and China but they've seen much worse and it's not going.
 * Haitang - 1% - Caused some damage, but again, it's not enough.
 * Nalgae - 0% - See Kulap.
 * All names - 0% - So far, no storm has met their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities, so nothing's getting retired from PAGASA yet.