Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why? rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)

IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Isis retired
Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.)  rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. Ryan1000 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001  leeboy100 My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC)

AOI:ECMWF storm near CPac
Although there's nothing there right now, by this weekend, another area of low pressure is expected to form near the CPac's area of responsibility, and it's at 40% for 5 days. Dolores by next week, anyone? Ryan1000 20:35, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * this reminds me of Upana in 2000, formed in July too.  totally destructive  | get hyper! 22:16, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Upana? Didn't expect that storm to get thrown around. This is the first of another batch of storm the ECMWF develops. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:07, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
oh my. 2 invests developed. this one is going to enter the CPac  totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:44, July 3, 2015 (UTC)​

Tropical Depression Two-C
Here, but 12 hours overdue. CPHC did something right for a change. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:23, July 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Iune
...3 named storms in July alone! might a sign of an super-el niño. it's a single thunderstorm! the cpac Marco.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  22:38, July 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * As far as I am aware, this is the earliest third CPAC storm of a season by far; the old record was held by 1984's Tropical Storm Moke, which formed on September 4(!!!!) of that year. At this rate, 1982's record for most CPAC storms (four) won't last much longer... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:24, July 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * We've still got a ways to go to match or beat the all-time record of 7 storms in July of the 1985 season, but July typically sees a total of 4 storms. However, with 3 storms already before the 2nd week is over, we might get a close second to 1985. Ryan1000 12:16, July 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dang, this is just insane. This is the most active I have seen the CPac basin be since August 2013. Well, as of now, the storm is forecast to remain very weak, and thus be a weakling. If this year carries on like that, we could even break 1982's record! 😯 -- Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:38, July 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is most active the CPAC has ever been. Let me list a bunch of records. First of all, 3 CPAC storms have never been co-active. The Central Pacific Hurricane Seasons lasts from June 1 to November 30. No CPAC TC has even formed there in June nor named there. Inside the hurricane season, the earliest forming CPAc name is Ela. Second earliest is Halola and third earliest is Iune. In addition, prior to 2015, there had been only 3 CPAC named systems in July. Well, 2015 has had 3. This also marks the closest span (3 days, old record was 1, 19848) 3 CPAC storms have been named. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

AOI:ECMWF storm #2
ECMWF has another area forming around the same time as the above. Could not develop due to interaction though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:07, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
this one is behind 95E. could become a long track one <font face="Comic Sans MS"> totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:44, July 3, 2015 (UTC
 * This one looks a lot better than the one that's in the CPac right now, it wouldn't surprise me if this becomes our next major hurricane. Pretty typical in July, but it'll still be fun to watch. Ryan1000 20:47, July 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * isnt this the GFS storm that crosses 3 basins? <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 21:19, July 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * There is no system in the CPAC. This a possible Hawaii threat as the ECMWF shows. The one behind it could be another long-tracker, a bit early for this time of year. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:35, July 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Sorry, thought the other had moved there by now, it will soon though. But don't expect 95E to do much anyway, conditions for it are deteriorating, this one though is far more likely to become something next week. Also YE, it's not that unusual to see a major hurricane here early in July or late June, especially in a super El Nino year like this one. But they're good to track nonetheless. Ryan1000 05:02, July 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Closer to MX, sure. Not usually this far our as the GFs/ECMWF has this hitting Hawaii long-term. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:33, July 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now at 70/90, and is very likely to become Dolores over the next day or two. Fortunately, most of the reliable models take this north of Hawaii at this point. Surf will still be a threat, but a direct hit is looking less and less likely. Ryan1000 00:41, July 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Models are overdoing ex-95E and thus sending this too far north. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:59, July 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Although it's not impossible it could hit Hawaii (in fact many storms over the past few years have come unusually close to the islands), it'd still be unlikely seeing as how the islands are typically more heavily protected at this time of year by a subtropical ridge to the north and shear from the south. But 96E is still something to watch regardless. Up to 90%. Ryan1000 20:20, July 7, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
and yes. we have an depression, oddly being tracked by the CPHC could become Ela. <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 03:56, July 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's being tracked by the CPac because the storm was upgraded by the NHC just moments before it crossed 140 W. Conditions are favorable enough for it to become Ela, but it probably won't become a hurricane since it will be passing over cooler SST's and some shear as it passes north of Hawaii over the next 4 days. Ryan1000 12:35, July 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * uh. no comments on the organization. pulling an 2012 WPac Maliksi in the organization <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Tropical Storm Ela
well it got named. hopefully will go poof as Wali last season <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 16:13, July 9, 2015 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Ela
Was only upped due to recon and is gone now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:25, July 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Not surprised, this wasn't too well looking from day 1. But at least it got named, better than nothing at all. Ryan1000 03:43, July 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, this weakling did form in the CPac and thus helping make the activity in that basin literally the most in one month since August 2013. Bye, Ela! 😄 (BTW, I kind of want to use emojis again, and you'll see them clearly if you're viewing with your phone or have this extension for Google Chrome.) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:33, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
60% CPAC invest that should be a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-C
and yes it is. it could cross to the WPac and be an long track typhoon <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:14, July 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Halola
If it does, it's named by CPHC.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:08, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

and its organizing very quickly. the HWRF is showing Halola to become an typhoon, then getting ripped apart by wind shear in an earlier run. GFDL makes it a C3. i can't rule out an RI to happen. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:52, July 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * The CPHC site currently forecasts this thing to become a hurricane/typhoon, but since the forecast only takes it to 70 kts at the end of the forecast, it may not be that powerful after all. Still worth watching, though: It is currently going to be the strongest of the CPac batch. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:41, July 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50 knts. Should cross over later today, and could at least be a typhoon in the WPAC, possibly a strong one as the GFS does that outside the 5 day forecast window. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:53, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #3
the GFS develops an possible hurricane or an tropical storm by late next week. <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 01:02, July 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * GFS set on a major out of this in 2 weeks. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:41, July 4, 2015 (UTC)

This one will have to wait quite some time. But it could become Enrique around the middle of the month. Ryan1000 05:03, July 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/50. GFS brings it near MX, but the ECMWF does not. Both call for a majors,while the ECMWF calls for a Cat 5. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * ok. the latest GFS run (12z) makes the future Enrique an  rare california landfall over Los Angeles as an remnant low  <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:41, July 9, 2015 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
70/90. Models have backed off on this, but this could still become a hurricane at least. Tracks hae once again shifted east so it could affect Baja. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:57, July 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think it's more likely to remain offshore, like Dora '11, than pull a Calvin or Eugene and make landfall in Mexico. Ryan1000 03:43, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E
First advisory was issued 8 hours ago but I guess we all got too caught up in Chan-hom and the CPAC explosion. Hope this is the right invest. Forecast to become a Category 2 Hurricane Dolores in a few days. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:19, July 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is, though I think it'll become stronger than a cat 2 off of Mexico. Kinda reminds me of Dora '11 in track, though I don't know if Dolores to-be will get nearly as strong as she did. But I would expect at least a cat 3 here. Ryan1000 01:29, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dolores
Now named Dolores. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:26, July 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is forecast by the NHC site to possibly become a powerful one, and I would say becoming a major isn't out of the question. If the forecast takes it to 95 kts like it currently does, then it could have a shot at becoming a major. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:44, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF storm #4
ECMWF brings an Iselle-esque system near 140W in 10 days. 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
80/90. Could form in 12-18 hours, though the GFS and ECMWF both have it getting torn apart by the Great Hawaiian Shear in 4 days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:59, July 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * If anything, this invest should become "Enrique" and peak only as a tropical storm. A hurricane is being slightly optimistic at this point. The invest is now 90/90, and I would be shocked if it's not a depression by the afternoon (PDT time). --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:46, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado...


 * EPAC
 * Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise.
 * Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager.
 * Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement.


 * CPAC
 * Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry)
 * Halola: Currently active
 * Iune: Currently active

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

The Steve has spoken:

EPac:


 * Andres: 0% - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise.


 * Blanca: 2% - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there.


 * Carlos: 5% - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country.


 * Dolores: ? - Predictions will be released once it's dissipated.

CPac:


 * Ela: 0% - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin.


 * Halola: ? - Predictions will be released once it's dissipated.


 * Iune: ? - Predictions will be released once it's dissipated.

--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC)