Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.  ~ Roy25     Happy Thanksgiving Day!!!  |  🦃     23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. -  PORY GONAL  13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  04:06, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019
Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Eastern Caribbean Sea
An AOI appears in the Caribbean Sea, at 10/20 as it moves northwestward toward the island of Hispaniola.  Sandy 156   :)  17:52, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Now invested as 95L according to Tropical Tibits.  Sandy 156   :)  18:28, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Land interaction is inhibiting it and environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly conducive until it reaches the Florida Straits, so we shouldn't see much from this in the short term. However this could be one to watch in the very long run. Chantal might come in early August (or even by the end of July if we're lucky) from this. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:08, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances decreased to 0/10, but can still form into next week or so, if possible.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 30, 2019 (UTC)

No longer in Tropical Tidbits' invests section, but still 0/10 on NHC's TWO, Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:11, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Finally off the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:10, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Africa
Although it's not on the TWO yet, Dr. Masters made a blog post discussing the probability for the development of an AOI that just moved off the coast of Africa and Cape Verde, and this signifies Cape Verde season is about to head up. Keep your eyes out...this might become something down the road. Ryan1000 01:51, July 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO with 0/20.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now increased to near 0/40.  Sandy 156   :)  00:15, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * This system is getting a bit concerning. This could be one to watch in the long run if it doesn't fall victim to any shear around the Eastern Caribbean. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:18, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/60 now. It seems that the Atlantic is waking up too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:09, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

The new GFS takes this to Newfoundland as a hurricane eventually, but the Euro doesn't develop this too much. Still a long ways to go before we can tell if anything big will happen with this. Ryan1000 21:23, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/70, this might have a chance of becoming Chantal soon.  Sandy 156   :)  02:38, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

It'll probably become Chantal...also, I included 95L in August in case it develops in the month, but otherwise, archived the rest of the stuff above it. Ryan1000 03:02, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
10/70. This is a system to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:24, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 20/70.  Sandy 156   :)  16:48, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

NHC says conditions will become unfavorable after it passes the upper Antilles, so this might only become a short-lived Chantal if it becomes a named storm. Ryan1000 18:50, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:10, August 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * 20/40, this is unlikely to form now.  Sandy 156   :)  17:56, August 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Further down to 20/30. Seems that all NHem basins are sub-par this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:36, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

It's still early August though, we have a lot of hurricane season left. Last year didn't have Florence until September, a month from now, 2017 didn't have Harvey until two weeks from now, and 2016 didn't get Matthew until October. Though it doesn't seem that this year will be as active right now, people shouldn't let their guard down. Ryan1000 14:34, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Will we get a hurricane like these picture perfect types  this year? I really hope so. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 14:53, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Keep things on topic please. Anyways, this won't become much of anything at this point, chances down to 20/20 and unfavorable conditions will set in soon. Ryan1000 22:10, August 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * 10/10, will likely dissipate soon. Ryan1000 15:40, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

And now near 0%. See ya. Ryan1000 20:23, August 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Sadly this failed to develop. Chantal's taking a while to show up! Maybe by the middle of the month we'll finally see her. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:54, August 5, 2019 (UTC)

Inactivity Break
an active af season expected from the noaa as a spanking new prediction report came out today. 10-17 lil' minions gonna be unleashed in your back garden. am thinking the most intense storms would be from the letters f-h this season. a category 4 fish storm is likely, imo. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 18:35, August 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic is really sleeping right now. At this rate, it might not be until almost the end of the month that Chantal finally comes. I just don't see this season being that active anymore, it would take a miracle late August/September explosion to see a very active season this year. We will probably only end at the I-L names this year to be honest. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * the charts say that the mjo phase will become more favorable, a cckw will push in, giving an abrupt sharp spike in activity. it's the dry sinking air promoted by a bad mjo phase. the season will likely end at about l-n. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 19:43, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Dr. Master's latest blog post says that there's a lot of dry air from the SAL over much of the tropical Atlantic, which is why the Atlantic is quiet for now, but a CCKW and the MJO will probably come into the basin by late August or September, and by then the basin will probably kick up a bit. Also, there's a possibility that a stalled frontal boundary could spawn a storm in the northern gulf next week, similar to how Barry formed. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this season could spike in activity later on, or produce a notable storm or two. Ryan1000 12:18, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Alright, I now think Chantal is possible in the next couple weeks, although it will probably come after my birthday from either the frontal boundary or a tropical wave once the CCKW and MJO moves in. If nothing forms by August 24, this year will have the latest "C" named storm since 1992, surpassing 2014. However I think Chantal this year will come at a similar time as Cristobal in 2014. Correcting my previous comment, if we get an explosion late this month into September, reaching the L-N names is a distinct possibility, although I think we will end around Karen. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:21, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Aw, man. Rebekah will have to wait ANOTHER six years. :( Beatissima (talk) 01:54, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

We might not get all the way to Rebekah this year, but we still have quite a bit of time left in the season, and if we get a sizeable pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation later in the month or September as Dr. Masters suggested, we could be in for something later on. Ryan1000 04:34, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Florida
Finally, the ATL has got an area of interest now over Florida moving towards the northeast. It's at 10/20 rn.  Sandy 156   :)  00:17, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * The wait has been killing us. Only 10/20 might not seem so convincing for development. But please become Chantal 🤗 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:22, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, at this rate we could have the latest "C" named storm since 1992... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
It has been invested, hopefully we see something! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:56, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/30, maybe there is a good chance of Chantal. It's got until Tuesday to develop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back down to 20/20... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:06, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * And down to 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 00:35, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Could we PLEASE get Chantal already? The chances for this one are diminishing and it'll have to pull a surprise tomorrow to become a TD or named TS. At this rate we could see a stormless August for the first time since 1997... The basin seems really hopeless for development in the near future. What a bust the Atlantic is this year... Might become the worst year I've ever tracked, and that would be saying something. Even 2013 was ahead in named storms at this point, and it looks likely 2019 will surpass 2014 for the latest "C" named storm of the century. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:34, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * I guess it's merciful that Hurricane Alley is getting a little break from overactive storm seasons. Even if it's only for a half-season and things pick up again next month. Beatissima (talk) 01:10, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Spiked up to 40/40. Beatissima (talk) 23:56, August 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, this could actually become Chantal... ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  01:53, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances raised to 100, finally Chantal's coming after more than a month long wait.  Sandy 156   :)  02:11, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chantal
Wtf, this caught me by surprise! We got Chantal, NHC's initiating advisories now. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  02:35, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, it's safe to say that Chantal surprised you on your birthday. The Atlantic finally came back to life. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:59, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chantal's a nice birthday present for sure. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  03:17, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * WHAAAAAAAAAT???? I had fully written this thing off as a bust, and all of a sudden it turns into Chantal? Kind of feels like Emily from two years ago. Oh and happy birthday Steve! Send Help Please  (talk) 03:33, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Same, this is such a shocking surprise! :O And thanks! ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  03:40, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently this is also the second-latest date for the third named storm of the season of the 21st century thus far, behind Cristobal of 2014 which formed on August 23, and this Chantal formed only 6 days later than the 2001 Chantal. It probably won't do much over the north Atlantic, but I will say, I did not expect this to form. Ryan1000 03:55, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * I hadn’t even checked the NHC site in a couple of days because I thought everything was just dead, and now, boom. Chantal coming out of nowhere. Leeboy100 Hello! 06:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Wow, this thing I never thought would form in the beginning became a named storm before that invest in the EPAC did! I expect this to be weak, though (watch this thing become a hurricane, okay I'm joking). TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 12:16, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * This is probably never going to surpass 45 or even 40 mph. While I'm glad to see a named storm this month, it's unfortunately on the failure TS side. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:02, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Chantal
Never made it past 40 mph.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  08:06, August 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on its last legs. Chantal is seriously playing with our emotions. First it rapidly organized to become Chantal, making us excited that there's finally a named storm in the Atlantic, and then she had to peak at the bare minimum and weaken afterwards, trolling us all. Chantfail didn't even try after being named. >:( I know conditions for Chantal weren't particularly conducive but hopefully Dorian is something better. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:17, August 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Apparently she's still kicking. Beatissima (talk) 22:40, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, Chantal still holding on and struggling to survive, which will succumb to stay alive much longer mostly likely in the next advisory or two.  Sandy 156   :)  23:35, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised Chantal is still alive but it's barely hanging on. Might be post-tropical/remnants by tonight though, or tomorrow morning at latest. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:51, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * It would be fun if Chantal later transitioned back to into tropical/sub-tropical system and kept going and going like Leslie. Beatissima (talk) 00:29, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal
See you in 2025, Chantal! Beatissima (talk) 02:42, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Bye Chantal, thank you for waking up the Atlantic!  Sandy 156   :)  03:13, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Bahamas
On the outlook at 0/20. Can this become Dorian? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:02, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/30, I think this'll become Dorian. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:18, August 22, 2019 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invested and at 30/60. Expected to move over Florida over the next day or two before recurving northeast and out to sea. It might become Dorian on the way. Ryan1000 11:41, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

Now 40/70. I have a feeling this'll become either Tropical Depression Five or Dorian. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 11:57, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 70/90! No Chantal until the back half of August, and now it looks like between this and 99L we might clear Erin before the end of the month. Reminds me of how 2010 started quiet (Alex notwithstanding) and then exploded after Danielle formed right around the same time Chantal did this year. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:20, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Also 12z UKMET makes this a 940 mbar Category 3 or 4 at around 40N on its way out to sea... is future Dorian determined to make up for his dud debut from 2013? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:31, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow the Atlantic is starting to explode. Looking like a race between this and 99L for Dorian. I hope it becomes strong as long as it's out to sea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:54, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

Still 70/90. Unless 90L organizes faster than this one, this system will become either PTC 6 or TD 6, and will most likely become Erin. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:50, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * My family is in SC this week. No doubt they'll get some swell from this. Beatissima (talk) 03:06, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Slightly down to 60/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:55, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back up to 70/80. Geez, this is taking a while to develop. Today's Air Force flight has been cancelled. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:28, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 80/80.  Sandy 156   :)  05:29, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 90/90. Expect Erin very soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:48, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Has finally formed into TD Six, expected to intesify into Erin very soon. Nickcoro (talk) 20:48, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Fixed the header. Anyways, it'll probably meander for a day or two before shooting northeast into Nova Scotia as a TS or STS. Ryan1000 22:10, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looking like it could be a name-stealer...unfortunately. It's got plenty of shear to deal with and they don't forecast anything beyond 45 mph. Looks like "Erin" might have to be used for another weakling this year unless it somehow stays below TS strength. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:28, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * If I'm being honest, I hope names get stolen in rapid succession so we can finally have Rebekah! Beatissima (talk) 23:59, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erin
Officially a TS, forecast to be 45 mph before turning post-tropical.  Sandy 156   :)  02:43, August 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Beat me by a minute. Anyways, yeah, it won't do much, it might not even reach Atlantic Canada at this rate. Ryan1000 02:44, August 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Erin has arrived! Yeah, we've got another weakling. Forecast to be post-tropical by the time it gets to Nova Scotia. It's not gonna do much and just remain completely off the East Coast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:12, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Erin
30 kts/1006 mbar :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:44, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * A name stealer, to be honest. Forecast to stay a TD through tomorrow and become a TS-force post-tropical system impacting Atlantic Canada and parts of New England. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:46, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin
And she's gone. See you in 6 years, Erin. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:43, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
I don't see this anywhere on the NHC's TWO, even on the 5-day outlook, but Tropical Tidbits says there's another invest in the central Atlantic between the Antilles and Africa, and it's expected to become a hurricane as it nears the upper Antilles by the initial model forecasts...this might become Erin if 98L gets to Dorian. Ryan1000 11:44, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * It looks like the Atlantic is finally waking up... TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 11:58, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO. 10/20 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:40, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

The initial intensity guidance for this AOI still takes it to category 2-3 intensity in 5 days...but the initial GFS runs are much more conservative on intensity, making it only a weak tropical storm as it moves past the upper Antilles, PR, and the DR. Hopefully the latter ends up being more accurate. Ryan1000 15:32, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 40/50. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:21, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60/70, we could see Erin by next week.  Sandy 156   :)  23:48, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Ok this thing exploded out of nowhere. After thinking this month would end with barely anything forming before Chantal came, we could now be up to Erin in the next couple days! I hope it's not a major long-term threat. Models on Tropical Tidbits take this into the Lesser and Greater Antilles and then it could threaten the U.S. Stay tuned... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:00, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Well, this escalated quickly. Beatissima (talk) 00:01, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five
Now a tropical depression by the NHC and is expected to be an 85 mph hurricane in five days. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 15:19, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * This system does not look good in the long run. Its forecast track for the first advisories seem oddly similar to Maria '17. Although I don't think it'll get nearly as strong as Maria did in the eastern Caribbean, this still very much bears watching. I just have a feeling inside me that this (future-Dorian) might be something significant in the future. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:04, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dorian
And here’s Dorian! Leeboy100 Hello! 21:07, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) 35 kts/1008 mbar and the NHC notes that the organization of the inner core has significantly improved... I have a sneaking suspicion that this might RI, but I hope I'm wrong. At least Dorian getting retired would pave the way for Dylan to take its place, I guess? :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:09, August 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah, looking at the forecast track, I’m starting to get a bad feeling about Dorian as well. The NHC already forecasts Dorian to hit the Caribbean islands as a hurricane. Dorian, please behave. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * This has been organizing pretty quickly and I have a bad feeling as well. Is it gonna RI? Hopefully not but it's not out of the question. If it pulls off RI, the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola could be in serious danger. Too soon to know if it'll be significant when it approaches the U.S. mainland, but this is looking scary in the long run. Stay tuned. Lol Dylan, it would be funny if Dylan took the place of this storm if it's retired. I wish that someday a male "S" name is retired and replaced by Steve or Steven. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:45, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

The NHC said in their latest forecast discussion that Dorian does have some mid-level dry air to contend with as it moves west-northwest towards the Caribbean, which may limit the area of strongest convection near the center of the storm, but wind shear has significantly declined and SST's are ripe...if Dorian can pull something akin to Danny '15 and briefly RI to a major hurricane before hitting the lessers, it might become a severe storm for parts of the Caribbean...hopefully that dry air keeps the tiny MDR storm in check for the time being. Also, if it doesn't become too strong before hitting the DR, it might die over the island, which would elliminate any long-term severe impacts this might have to the U.S. That'd be a best-case scenario. Ryan1000 01:41, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * I hope Dorian wouldn't impact Hispanola as much as I thought. I also don't want Dorian to RI or a major right before it's landfall in the island (unless it somehow misses it). Forecast to become 80 mph hurricane for Dorian before its landfall by the NHC.  Sandy 156   :)  03:31, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches are put up for Barbados, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Now forecast to peak at 75 mph by the NHC.  Sandy 156   :)  17:11, August 25, 2019 (UTC)


 * The Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola are expected to be impacted as a strong tropical storm and possibly as a hurricane. Hopefully it's not too bad. The best-case scenario would be for this to die out over Hispaniola, which would limit or even completely remove any threat to the mainland U.S. Unless a sudden RI episode occurs I don't expect anything more than a strong TS/minimal hurricane before it strikes Hispaniola. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:31, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensified to 50 mph. Yeah, a hurricane seems likely to be honest. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, August 26, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now up to 60 mph/1002 mbar.  Sandy 156   :)  14:32, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian's still forecast to be a minimal hurricane when it reaches the DR, but NHC says it'll probably only be a depression after it crosses the island, if Dorian survives at all. Long-range model forecasts eventually take it to eastern Florida but Dorian probably won't be more than a TS by that point, if that. Ryan1000 14:57, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, I might've spoken too soon, the track for Dorian has been shifting farther east recently and now he's only expected to clip at the eastern tip of the DR, or Dorian could even pass between the DR and Puerto Rico, which would minimize interaction with the mountains, and with the Bermuda high expected to build later in the forecast period, Dorian could become more threatening to the U.S. down the road than previously anticipated...behave yourself, Dorian... Ryan1000 22:10, August 26, 2019 (UTC)


 * 8 PM advisory is out, and keeps the winds the same, but actually raises the pressure to 1007. Leeboy100 Hello! 00:00, August 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * 11 pm advisory lowers the pressure and wind speed to 50/1003.  Sandy 156   :)  02:46, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

11 am, you mean. Anyhow, Dorian is only expected to be a TS after crossing near or through the passage between the eastern tip of the DR and western PR, as there is still quite a bit of dry air keeping Dorian in check, but even the NHC says they're puzzled as to why the dynaminc models like the HWRF and the global (GFS and Euro) models don't make Dorian stronger after passing north of the Antilles over expected 29 C waters and a moist environment...maybe the southern outflow from TD Six could bring some shear over the storm over the next day or two? Regardless, forecaster Stewart said that there is higher than usual uncertainty in days 4 and 5 regarding the intensity forecast for Dorian, so eastern Florida and north of there may have to watch out for him down the road. Ryan1000 17:49, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually it was 11 pm, Sandy posted at 02:46 UTC which was last night. At this point, the dry air will likely prevent it from reaching hurricane status before it strikes Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. However, I'm getting more and more concerned about Florida. Assuming it survives the Greater Antilles intact and still well-organized, conditions look favorable enough for potential strengthening to a hurricane. I don't think TD 6/potential-Erin will affect it much because it'll be shooting north into Atlantic Canada while Dorian is just entering the Bahamas. In summary, this is looking like a greater threat to the mainland U.S. as time goes on. Stay tuned. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:34, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Ah, my bad, either way, the intensity didn't notably change over that time. Dorian still might become something of a threat to eastern Florida down the road though. The intensity forecast has Dorian hitting near Cape Canaveral as a strong TS, and the forecast track now has Dorian moving far enough north of west to completely miss the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, which would put it into interaction with Puerto Rico more, but PR isn't as mountainous as the DR, so Dorian might not be interrupted as much by interaction with PR as he would over the DR. Ryan1000 21:49, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Holds on as a 50 mph storm. Now forecast to be a minimal hurricane when approaching Florida and the track continues to shift northward with a crossing of Puerto Rico now expected. In fact I probably wouldn't rule out RI before Florida landfall - the forecast just keeps on getting more ominous. It would've been good if it crossed the mountains of Hispaniola instead so it would be more likely to die out. But no, it has to shift towards a less tough crossing and become a threat to the U.S. mainland. I might even go so far as to say this might end up being the year's first retirement candidate (Barry barely has a chance IMO). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:09, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

New advisory, things stay the same, but the cone now has this hitting Florida as an 80 mph hurricane. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:09, August 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * I can hope for the best that the damage and deaths that Dorian will cause in the near future won't be that high.  Sandy 156   :)  03:49, August 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Winds back to 60 mph, pressure at 1003 mb. Now forecast to affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico -- Dorian might only cross the eastern portion of the latter (its track has been changing recently). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:13, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * What a change that one night makes. Dorian is not looking good for Florida, and I was taking a look at the models as well and most now give him a westerly component when crossing the state. The Euro now gives it a SW turn toward Tampa, and that is quite alarming. The storm surge associated with that type of path would be enormous. We could be looking at a major hurricane striking the East Coast of Florida and cutting across into the GOM to intensify further. Forecast currently calls for Cat 2 without any further predicted RI, but that may change very quickly. Owen 12:02, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian's current track and trajectory looks like a combination of Hugo and Frances, although it is significantly weaker than the two. (But Frances was a Category 2 when it hit Florida, the same intensity that Dorian is forecast to reach once it nears Florida.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:08, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

(Edit Conflict) Woah, the Bermuda high has been much, much weaker than we all thought it would be at this point, even the NHC didn't expect Dorian to end up this far north this early. Now Dorian has moved so far north of west that he is not only expected to miss the DR but even miss Puerto Rico to the east and only pass over the tiny Virgin Islands, which would only minimally disrupt the circulation of Dorian, if he's even disrupted at all. Because of the lack of notable land interaction interrupting the small storm, Dorian is now expected to hit at least 100 mph before making a landfall on the eastern coast of Florida. Last night's run of the HWRF model expected Dorian to become a 941 mbar category 4 hurricane taking direct aim at Savannah, Georgia, or it could go further south and even hit Jacksonville, Florida, at that intensity. The only other hurricane to hit Jacksonville since reliable record-keeping was 1964's Hurricane Dora, and the last major hurricane to hit Savannah directly was the great Sea Islands hurricane of 1893, which was also one of America's deadliest hurricanes (up to 2000 people killed). Either way, Dorian is a much more notable threat to Florida now and this could well be our first retirement candidate, a complete turnaround from his flop in 2013. Owen, I doubt Dorian will end up as far south as Tampa given his position and track now, but a strong hurricane hitting Jacksonville or Savannah, let alone NASA at Cape Canaveral, would still be very destructive. Ryan1000 13:22, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nearly a hurricane - 60 kts/999 mbar. Hurricane Warning issued for Vieques, Culebra, and the Virgin Islands. Now forecast to become a 100-kt major hurricane by day 4... but then weaken to an 85-kt Category 2 by day 5? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

I think the 85 kt on day 5 thing was a mistake, because now day 5 is at 100 kts as well. Major hurricane landfall on Florida looking a bit more likely now. Nickcoro (talk) 15:39, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * If worse comes to worst, then Dorian could make 2019 the third season in a row to feature a major hurricane landfall in Florida, following 2017 with Irma and 2018 with Michael. And this was after 12 years had passed since Wilma, which was until Irma the most recent MH to strike Florida... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:44, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Dorian
Uh oh, this has become a HURRICANE! Now causing impacts in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Getting increasingly ominous for Florida and Southeast U.S. by the minute... If it deviates north to a major Georgia landfall, it would be unusual and the first since the 1898 Georgia hurricane. Either way, the first retirement candidate of the year is on the horizon. It's quite weird and scary that Florida went 12 years without a major landfall, and now this could be the 3rd year in a row! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:44, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * I don’t like this at all. I hope after this year, the US has another long major hurricane drought. We’ve had enough of destructive storms hitting the US. Leeboy100 Hello! 17:59, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oh no, I wasn’t expecting hurricane status for the storm to be so early which indicates that this will be a strong one, but I am worried about the damage that Dorian will cause once it makes landfall in Florida. Hope we won’t see another devastating hurricane after the past 2 or 3 years.  Sandy 156   :)  23:07, August 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 990 mbar but wind speeds remain the same. I'm not ruling out a C4 hurricane for Dorian before landfall, I mean it's entirely possible.  Sandy 156   :)  00:03, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 85 mph/986 mbar. It's just getting worse by the minute. Hopefully Floridians are preparing for this thing, which is doomed to strike them as a major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:20, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

This year's naming list is just ridiculously cursed, there has never been one single hurricane season using list 5 since 1979 that did not have at least 1 retired name, and list 5 holds the record for most retired names from it, with 13. 1983 had Alicia, 1989 had Hugo, 1995 had Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne, 2001 had Allison, Iris, and Michelle, 2007 had Dean, Felix, and Noel, 2013 had Ingrid, and given the way things are going right now, Dorian's likelihood to return in 2025 is slim...if this pans out, Dorian would give this naming list a whopping 14 retired names, and maybe more if we get something else notable later in the season. Also, the most recent run of the HWRF model and some other recent runs make Dorian a colossal category 4 storm slamming Cape Canaveral, which would be insanely destructive, not only on the coastline but inland, since a strong category 4 major hurricane has never made landfall directly there since record-keeping began. Matthew came close 3 years ago, and Frances plus the 1926 Nassau, Bahamas Hurricane weakened beforehand, but a storm like the one in that image would be historic...in more ways than one. Ryan1000 03:34, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately an indirect death was caused already. A man fell off the roof of his house while preparing for the storm.  Sandy 156   :)  04:52, August 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * New advisory coming shortly, Dorian is starting to get his act back together after going through some dry air. Edit: Never mind. No advisory coming shortly. Next one is at 5:00 AM since there aren’t any watches or warnings at the moment. Leeboy100 Hello! 05:56, August 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Winds still at 85 mph, but pressure rose to 991 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:11, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Models seem to have trended further south a bit before Dorian's Florida landfall, the latest Euro and 06Z HWRF bring Dorian as far south as a landfall just north of Miami...that would be unimaginable, considering how huge Dorian may get after he undergoes some ERC's on his way to Florida. Ryan1000 11:27, August 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Oh crap, I don't want this to be a re-Andrew '92. I want Dorian to move EAST and NOT WEST, but it looks like that's not gonna happen. Plus, I think 991 mb seems rather high for an 85 mph hurricane. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:46, August 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah, just looking at the track, it has been looking like a re-Andrew for a day or so now: the way that Dorian is expected to raze across Florida, how compact the storm is now, and how potent it is expected to become. ChowKam2002 (talk) 11:59, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian definitely organizing, very good presentation on visible satellite. Looking like a more classic cinnamon roll. --Whiplash (talk) 13:10, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Still 85 mph, pressure down to 986 mb. Forecast to make landfall as a Category 4 (130 mph). This is increasingly getting scarier by the minute. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:00, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * I'm worried about this storm. Does anyone know when the last time something this strong hit east florida was? I can't think of anything off the top of my head but I haven't been seriously tracking hurricanes for too long and I also might be forgetting something. YellowSkarmory (talk) 15:48, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Unfortunately, it looks like the HWRF was right, Dorian is now forecast to become a category 4 storm when it makes landfall on eastern Florida. @YellowSkarmory: Andrew of 1992 was a category 5 storm when it made landfall just south of Miami, which is technically still eastern Florida, but a category 4 hasn't made landfall at Cape Canaveral since records began. West Palm Beach or other areas just south of CC? I suppose the 1928 hurricane was also a 4 when it hit there, but that was 91 years ago. Ryan1000 16:10, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * If it directly strikes or the strongest eyewall lashes Cape Canaveral and the Kennedy Space Center, this could be one of the if not THE costliest blow ever to NASA's space program. Who knows what a Category 4 could do to the space station... Hopefully it's well built enough to withstand a powerful hurricane. This could get really catastrophic for Florida, likely on the scale of Irma or the 2004 hurricanes (maybe even Andrew). God forbid if this thing RIs and ends up as a Category 5 before landfall! Conditions seem potentially favorable enough. If anyone here on this wiki lives on the Florida Peninsula, you better be starting to board up your windows, pack up your belongings, seek shelter, buy emergency supplies including food and water, and evacuate. And PRAY TO GOD. This is going to get real bad... If this deviates a bit south to a direct Miami strike AND RIs to a C5, we could be talking about one of the costliest storms in history. In summary, y'all in Florida better prepare now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:17, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Man this storm is scary even right now, Dorian could be a major threat to Florida. I hope that it won’t be a costly and devastating hurricane to Florida. Prayers up for those people in Florida. Anyway, looks like Dorian is clearing out an eye right now.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 02:06, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian is now a Cat 2. Beatissima (talk) 03:03, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yep. 105 mph, 977 mbars, and now forecast to hit Florida at 140 mph rather than 130. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:09, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian Gray, stop being naughty. Did Florida piss in your Cheerios or something?! You may deal a blow to Florida, but they will come out stronger than ever. Your attempt to destroy Florida and the lives of its poor citizens shall fail. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:10, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Still 105 mph, pressure slightly up to 979 mb, but Dorian is now forecast to intensify into this season's first major hurricane. 5PM update from NHC also notes that a hurricane watch has been issued for northwestern Bahamas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:56, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nearly a major now - 95 kts/972 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:20, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * It is now a 110 mph, 972 mbar hurricane. Expected to peak at 140 mph before making landfall at a slightly weaker 130 mph. Bad news. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:21, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

I know I am being shallow. But this storm is super ugly, like really messy visual presentation right now. Lol. --Whiplash (talk) 13:41, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * I can see an eye popping out right now.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 14:30, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Models are becoming increasingly consistent on Dorian raking up the east coast of Florida after landfall, so even if Dorian makes landfall near West Palm Beach or Jupiter just south of Cape Canaveral, Dorian's turn north means CC could still get hit hard by Dorians winds and storm surge, not to mention the damage inland in places like Orlando and potentially Jacksonville (though Tampa will probably get off easier if Dorian turns north after landfall, so Owen should be alright). EDIT: Also, side note, if Dorian makes landfall in the sunshine state as a category 4 hurricane, it would mark only the second time on record in which a category 4 hurricane struck the U.S, let alone Florida, for 3 consecutive hurricane seasons, as we had Harvey, Irma, and Maria in 2017 (just Irma in Florida though) and of course, Michael last year. The late 1940's also had a 3-year streak (well, 4, if you count 1950's King). However, it would not be a record number of consecutive years for U.S. major hurricane landfalls, as 1915-1919 had a five-year streak of that. Both 2020 and 2021 would have to have a MH U.S. landfall to tie that record, hopefully that doesn't end up happening in the future though. These past few seasons have been destructive enough. Ryan1000 14:31, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Dorian
And now it’s a major. 115,970. This isn’t good. Leeboy100 Hello! 17:57, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yikes. Both The Bahamas and Florida will get hit hard by this. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:59, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Warnings are now in effect for parts of the Bahamas but no Hurricane Watch for Florida, probably will be put up late today or tomorrow or so. This will be bad for Florida; I hope those people are starting to prepare and evacuate.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 23:09, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Most recent recon pass now has pressure at 946mb which isn't surprising since it really had improved its presentation. It is still an extremely impressive drop of 25 though since last pass with winds probably at Category 4 now. Probably will be upgrade at next advisory. If this rate of intensification were to continue we most certainly could be looking at a Category 5. I doubt it would be able to maintain that intensity consistently at the speed it is moving as it would probably churn up enough cold water to burn it down to a 4 again. Also it can't be ruled that Dorian could go out to sea as well or be a re-Matthew/Floyd situation. --Whiplash (talk) 23:15, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently, recon found a pressure of 946 which is a sharp drop compared to the 970 mbar pressure as of the most recent advisory. This is clearly RI. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 23:13, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Dorian is looking pretty scary on satellite. It may be a high-end C3 / low-end C4 already. This situation keeps getting worse and worse.TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:32, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * And there’s the new advisory. 125/950. A 20 millibar drop in 3 hours...... Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 23:48, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Special statement from NHC, Dorian is now a C4, 130/950.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 00:34, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oh, boy. An eventual Cat 5 is looking more and more likely. Beatissima (talk) 01:04, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

More models are beginning to suggest Dorian may stay out to sea. I'm not convinced that this will hit the states we have many examples of hurricanes getting close to Florida and not hitting the state. This may be another case. --Whiplash (talk) 01:41, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Thank God if that comes true. However, it may turn out to be Matthew 2.0 for Florida if it goes nearer. Hoping the best but expecting the worst. Reminds me of Jose 2017 to be honest, but Bahamas still needs to watch out. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:38, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dorian is up to 140/948. Expected to be a 150 mph hurricane from the NHC before weakening.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 02:44, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hopefully those models come true and Dorian stays respectably offshore. I will let out a sigh of relief if it curves before hurricane-force winds are even supposed to arrive there. Florida does not need another devastating hurricane. If this does not recurve though... it'll just continue to get scarier and God forbid this becomes a C5 and doesn't recurve until after landfall. This is looking like possibly the worst Florida Peninsula hurricane since Andrew if the recurving scenario doesn't happen until landfall. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:49, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * But sadly, even if it does recurve, the northern Bahamas are still guaranteed to receive impacts. This could have devastating consequences for Freeport and other cities/towns there. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:22, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian's probably going to be a HUGE storm when he nears eastern Florida as it's inevitable that this rapidly strengthening hurricane is going to undergo an ERC or two on the way to expand its windfield, so even if Dorian doesn't make a landfall a close scrape with eastern Florida would still inflict very heavy damage, as Matthew showed in 2016. Cape Canaveral may get off a direct hit from this according to the forecast track right now but a possible direct hit on Savannah is now back in play, NHC now expects Dorian to rake up Florida's east coast, possibly without making landfall, before storming through Savannah as a strong category 3 hurricane, but given how this storm has overperformed intensity forecasts thus far, I'm going to take a wild guess and say that there's a chance that Dorian will make for the record 4th consecutive AHS with a category 5 hurricane, beating the previous 3-year streak of such storms from 2003-05. Obviously this isn't a good thing by any means...but the people must prepare for the worst, and Dorian may well bring the worst to parts of eastern Florida. Ryan1000 03:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Good, stay away from Florida, Dorian. Now stay away from the rest of the U.S. and we should be good. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:55, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

145 mph, 944 mbars in the latest advisory. Bahamas will get a beating from Dorian, but Florida might face heavy rainfall instead (especially when Dorian slows down). Forecast now takes Dorian as a hurricane (probably a C2) near the southern coast of South Carolina. Track looks like a combination of Hugo, Matthew and Andrew at this point, but it must be noted that at one point, Dorian really looked structurally similar to Hugo, albeit further from land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:10, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * SFMR now has a non-suspect sustained surface wind of 141 kts, or basically 160 mph, but I don't know if the NHC will follow SFMR at 11. T  G  2 0 1 9 13:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * If that SFMR data would be followed by NHC at 11, the 4-year Category 5 streak of the Atlantic would become official. God forbid it hits as a Category 5 in the islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco; the last time that the Bahamas had a beating was Andrew, and before that, 1979's David and the 1929 hurricane (which was a C4 at its peak). Dorian's track (and trajectory) is kinda similar to the latter system too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:01, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * If Dorian becomes a Category 5 before the end of the day, it will be the first August Category 5 since Dean. It’s a bit eerie and ironic that Dean’s replacement is this strong. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 14:55, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

150 mph, 945 mbars. Pressure went a little upward as the winds grew stronger, but that doesn't change anything for the northern part of The Bahamas: they're still going to bear the brunt of this monster. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:56, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yep you beat me to it. New advisory came out the moment after I posted. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 14:57, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah. Dorian may or may not reach C5 though. Anyway, Dorian has slowed down to 8 mph, and its center is no longer expected to touch any part of Florida's east coast. It is expected to recurve towards the open Atlantic, but perilously close to the Carolinas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Dorian still has a good shot at becoming a C5, but it's diminishing pretty quickly. Anyways, Grand Bahama is going to get slammed by Dorian, which is the second-most populated island in the Bahamas. Nassau is still nearly in the direct path too, which is worrying. About 275,000 people live there, if I remember correctly. T  G  2 0 1 9 15:49, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Dorian is expected to slow down as it reaches the northern Bahamas, so it could deliver severe damage to the upper islands, like the category 5 hurricane that stalled near the upper Bahamas in 1932, but that hurricane turned out to sea before doing much of anything to the U.S. east coast. Still, a cat 5 in the Bahamas is nothing to sneeze at, and Dorian could be a retirement-worthy storm from that alone. If Dorian's track keeps recurving (now expected to hit North Carolina like Floyd), it might turn out to sea after the Bahamas. Ryan1000 15:58, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Good news : the cloud structure of Dorian is apparently decaying. The latest UW-CIMSS estimates are dropping off, and SAB subjetive estimates are also decreasing. The cloud tops are warming, as per IR imagery. Signs of weakening, anyone? -- Java Hurricane  16:18, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Is this the stroke of doom? 140 kt as per the latest vortex message from Hurricane Hunters. Apparently Dorian is strengthening even as the the cloud tops warm. Category 5 at 18Z? -- Java Hurricane  17:11, August 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * Oh boy, I don't want to hear about a Category 5 this dangerously close to land. Who knows what such an intense storm will do to the northern Bahamas. Hopefully after the Bahamas, it completely recurves out to sea sparing even the Carolinas from significant impacts. But even if it does that, it could be retired for Bahamas impacts alone, similar to Joaquin. Regardless of whether it recurves enough, people in the Carolinas, Georgia, and the east coast of Florida should not let their guard down. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:04, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 21z now. Still 150mph. It probably won’t make it to C5 at this point but could still reach 155mph. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 21:19, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dropsonde recorded winds of 155 KNOTS at the surface! I think I smell a special advisory incoming. If that isn’t evidence of a C5, I don’t know what is. Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 01:55, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Still 150 mph, pressure now at 940. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:53, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Smh that’s the worst decision the NHC had ever taken, keeping it at 150 mph instead of 155 or 160 mph.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 03:14, September 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Despite the overwhelming evidence from recon that this is a Category 5, NHC stubbornly leaves this at 150. It’s literally just Lane from last year all over again, and I will repeat what I said then. I don’t want a C5 to hit land, but if there is substantial evidence that it’s a 5, it’s a 5. The NHC’s habit of doing this lately is getting really annoying really fast. 🙄 Leeboy100 Beware of Dorian 03:17, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

To be fair, Joaquin was first requested to be retired by the U.S, but only because it caught the El Faro ship off guard, sinking it and killing all 33 people aboard it as it unexpectedly moved southward and RI'd to a strong major hurricane, contrary to all initial forecasts on the storm, but Joaquin had a strong case to be retired by the Bahamas too, as it was the first category 4 hurricane to hit the islands during the month of October since the great Bahamas hurricane of 1866, which killed over 350 people in the islands. The only other hurricane to kill close to that many people in the Bahamas since then was the 1926 Nassau Hurricane, named after devastating the country's capital as a category 4 storm.

Anyways, from the looks of things now, Dorian may recurve out to sea later on before making a landfall on the eastern U.S, and even more fortunately it seems that the left-hand side of Dorian is much smaller than his right, similar to Hugo in 1989 as Anonymous 2.0 mentioned above (but Hugo actually did charge far inland and ruin much of coastal South Carolina in and around Charleston), but even so, the NHC forecasts Dorian to slow to a crawl as it roars over the upper Abaco Islands, which are home to over 17,000 people, likely as a high-end category 4 or 5 hurricane. If this pans out, those islands may suffer total devastation. Like I said above, the 1932 Bahamas Hurricane also stalled over the upper Abaco Islands as a category 5 hurricane, before it turned away without hitting the U.S, hopefully Dorian does that too. Ryan1000 04:48, September 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Winds remain at 150 mph (very odd) but pressure is now down to 934 millibars. Current forecwst expects a peak of 155 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:16, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Dorian
Dorian is now a category 5 hurricane with winds of 160 mph and a pressure of 927 millibars!! 4 consecutive years with at least one C5. Wow, just wow. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:02, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Per TheChosenWizard above. Bearing down on the Abaco islands as we speak... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:06, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Finally, but very very bad news for The Bahamas, especially the Abacos. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:13, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * People on the Abaco Islands had better have prepared for this monster of a storm. Stay safe out there! TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:15, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Four years. Matthew, Irma & Maria, Dorian. Wow. Btw, @ TheChosenWizard, I transferred your previous comment to this section. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:19, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

What is interesting is that the Air Force plane's fix at 1132Z had maximum winds of 156 kt, but the NHC is still being conservative, keeping it at 140 kt. -- Java Hurricane  12:26, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * And just to think that this storm is going to stall right over Nassau, Freeport, and Lucaya. 15-20 ft storm surge predicted for these areas. T  G  2 0 1 9 12:41, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * NHC has updated the storm strength to 175 mph. Continuing to intensify and may soon be sub-920. Track has also shifted slightly more west back towards Florida as the northeast ridge is slightly stronger than first assumed. Either way Florida will likely see very heavy rain, surge and at least sustained tropical storm winds if not hurricane ones as the situation evolves. Carolina's also need to be watching this system. --Whiplash (talk) 13:38, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Even more troubling is the fact that there was a (suspect) 159 kt recording on SFMR. Also, please check the latest sonding at your own risk here. -- Java Hurricane  13:56, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) I have to say, I'm rather impressed that Dorian hasn't undergone any EWRCs yet, probably because it has one of the best-formed eyes I've ever seen in the Atlantic - right up there with Irma. (@Anonymous, don't forget about Michael!) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:02, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well... 155 kt per latest fix. -- Java Hurricane  14:04, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Not sure if I'm just seeing things but rather than a just direct orientation satellite looks like there may be a bit of southwest movement going on with the system in the last few frames? --Whiplash (talk) 14:07, September 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Also per Tropical Tidbits just had a dropsonde record a surface level wind of 176kts or 202mph. Probably a gust but you get the idea... --Whiplash (talk) 14:13, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * AL, 05, 2019090112, 03, OFCL, 3, 265N, 768W, 155, 919, HU, 155kts

Owen 14:22, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
This one just popped up, but is likely to move inland before development. 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 16:59, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * What a waste of an invest, it won’t even form unless it unexpectedly develops inland.  Sandy 156   :)  17:35, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it has very limited time to become anything. Unless it explodes offshore, a TD is out of the cards. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:05, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0%, development won't happen anymore. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:02, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:32, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Off the coast of Africa
New wave being shown off of Africa on the NHC site. 0/20 Leeboy100 Hello! 07:02, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/30.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 14:27, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/40 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:57, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * This wave gives me chills. A potentially major Fernand could be looming. Hopefully it's a fishspinner if it develops because we don't need any more devastation after Dorian's threat and the impacts of big ones in previous years. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:52, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/50.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 05:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Judging by the 5-day TWO, this looks like a fishspinner. The 10/20 AOI in the GOM is more concerning for me, as it may become a big rain event which might cause flooding in Mexico or other areas in the Gulf. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:54, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 20/60 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:36, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Looking likely that this storm will be a fishspinner, due to a quick northern turn it'll take soon, so this probably won't do much on land. But it might have a chance to RI to a semi-strong hurricane, if previous storms like Fred and Julia in this position are anything to judge by. Ryan1000 14:16, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * I predict a cat 2 from Fernand. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:56, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hopefully this will be a fishspinner, looks like that will likely be the case. Has a chance to be our next major IMO. Still won't rule out the possibility that it curves back to the west after the end of the 5-day TWO forecast and eventually threatens Bermuda and New England/Atlantic Canada in the very long run. Gives me slight Florence vibes tbh. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Increased to 50/70. This is becoming interesting. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:16, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Looks like this is finally invested. ChowKam2002 (talk) 13:34, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
An AOI popped up just recently in the southeastern GoM. At 10/20 rn.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 05:47, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gulf is a hot tub, wind shear is low and luttle dry air. Can't see this not becoming Gabrielle. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:57, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Or Fernand if it develops quicker than the Cape Verde wave. The race is on for our next named storm. Now 20/30 on the TWO, but considering the threat to northeastern Mexico, hopefully it's not going to RI. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:11, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like both will be named imo PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:53, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

September
Since it's only a day away, this section has been added. The two AOIs in Africa and GOM will be transferred here if they become TDs. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:40, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * models are hinting that the wave behind fernand to be will take an irma type path. Looking likely itllgbe humberto. PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:54, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: East of Dorian
0/20 as of the moment. Just like the WPac, the Atlantic is heating up. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:14, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - Continued the streak of pre-season storms. However, this was an epic failure, and never became fully tropical. A waste of a name if you ask me. The pre-season formation is the only thing that saved it from receiving the "Z" grade.
 * <font color="#FF5">Barry : <font color="#0A5">22%, <font color="#AF0">C - A very small chance of retirement due to the flooding it caused in and around Louisiana. Current damage total of >$600 million shouldn't be enough for the U.S. to retire the name, since they usually retire storms that cause more than a billion in damage. But impacts aside, at least we saw an early first hurricane.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Three : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#500">Z - If you blinked, you missed it. Incredibly short-lived failure that brought only showers to the Bahamas and Florida.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Harmless weak tropical storm. Gets a bit of grading credit for forming unexpectedly out of the blue and lasting a few days, but still a very weak system that never surpassed 40 mph/1009 mb.
 * <font color="#F85">Dorian : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - RETIREMENT-WORTHY IMPACTS EXPECTED. Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Erin : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - Another pathetic steal of a name. Even worse than Chantal because this didn't do anything special.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#FF5">C1 , <font color="#FD5">C2 , <font color="#FB5">C3 , <font color="#F85">C4 , <font color="#F55">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#905">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% ; <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: 

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: Barry

Staying: Andrea, Chantal, Erin

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * Dorian - Likely Retired or Retired. Looking about certain to be devastating once it's all said and done, unless it recurves offshore.

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Dorian (Projected to be Likely Retired or RETIRED ):
 * Dylan
 * Darren
 * Dominic
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dustin
 * Drake
 * Davis

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: Dorian > Damien



How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Lorenzo.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Jerry or Karen, or go further to Melissa, Nestor, or Olga.
 * Pablo or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Imelda or before is also unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see 3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first of these systems is Dorian at the end of August-start of September, while the second one could occur in mid-September. A 3rd one for October or even mid-late September is possible.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:12, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 02:54, August 31, 2019 (UTC))
 * Chances that Fernand will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - May arrive in early September from the currently active Cape Verde wave on the TWO.
 * Chances that Gabrielle will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - I expect to see this in early-mid September.
 * Chances that Humberto will be used: <font color="#300">99.9% - Will most likely be a mid September storm.
 * Chances that Imelda will be used: <font color="#500">95% - I would literally faint if this season somehow doesn't reach this new name. It should be here in mid-late September.
 * Chances that Jerry will be used: <font color="#900">85% - Highly likely to reach this name. May be a late September or early October storm.
 * Chances that Karen will be used: <font color="#F00">74% - Also likely that we will reach this name, and might be an early-mid October storm.
 * Chances that Lorenzo will be used: <font color="#F60">60% - If this forms, it should be in mid-late October or November. Likely to conclude the season.
 * Chances that Melissa will be used: <font color="#CE0">48% - May or may not form this year. If it does form, I expect to see it in November or as a post-season surprise. Also likely to conclude the season.
 * Chances that Nestor will be used: <font color="#6C0">37% - Slight chance we reach up to here. Will most likely be a late-season or post-season surprise if it does come.
 * Chances that Olga will be used: <font color="#0A0">25% - We will possibly not get as far as we did last year, although there's still a chance.
 * Chances that Pablo will be used: <font color="#0AA">16% - I will be surprised if Pablo forms this year.
 * Chances that Rebekah will be used: <font color="#00A">9% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. Tying 2017's named storms is highly unlikely to occur this year.
 * Chances that Sebastien will be used: <font color="#03A">4% - Environmental conditions this year should not support this much activity.
 * Chances that Tanya will be used: <font color="#30A">1% - The Atlantic will have to really explode, contrary to forecasts for this season. Not going to happen.
 * Chances that Van will be used: <font color="#60A">0.5% - Not going to happen either. A strange miracle will have to take place to somehow get this far.
 * Chances that Wendy will be used: <font color="#95A">0.01% - Basically no chance at all that we will exhaust the naming list this year.
 * Chances that Alpha or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - I would have a better chance at getting struck by lightning or even winning the lottery than the Atlantic getting this far in 2019.

Sandy's retirements and grades
My turn to do retirements and grades!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#80CCFF">PTC, <font color="#5EBAFF">TD/SD , <font color="#00faf4">TS/SS , <font color="#F3E5AB">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea :  F ,  0%  — Was notable for continuing the off-season streak forming in May and the sudden formation due to recon, however it was a weak and short-lived storm that never turned fully tropical. The off-season formation saved it from getting a Z.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Barry : <font color="#0099FF">C+ , <font color="#CCCC00">20%  — A July hurricane that made landfall in Louisiana, inflicting >$600 million (USD) and however only caused an indirect death. Barry was also the wettest tropical cyclone in Arkansas, dropping over 16 in (421 mm) in the state. I doubt Barry would go for its impacts since the WMO typically retire storms w/ a higher damage and death toll.


 * <font color="#5EBAFF">Three :  Z ,  N/A  — A short-lived and weak tropical depression. Do I even have to explain this further?


 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal :  E ,  0%  — A weak fish that formed out of nowhere which surprised most of us. It held on for its life for 3 days, earning a E.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Dorian : <font color="#0000FF">TBA  — Currently active, this one will be the one to watch for retirement once it strikes Florida as a C4 or even maybe a C5 hurricane.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Erin :  F ,  0%  — A weak storm that did nothing special despite being stronger than Dorian.

Retirement summary:

Definitely Retired (>95%): None

Most Likely Retired (75-90%): None

Likely Retired (55-70%): None

Tossup (45-50%): None

Likely Not Retired (25-40%): None

Most Likely Not Retired (5-20%): Barry

Definitely Not Retired (<5%): Andrea, Chantal

Name chances of being used:
 * Fernand: <font color="FF1493">100%  - May be coming with us in early September.


 * Gabrielle: <font color="FF1493">100%  - May be coming with us in early to mid September.


 * Humberto: <font color="FF1493">100%  - May be coming with us in mid to late September.


 * Imelda:  95%  - I will be disappointed if it ends at that name. May be coming with us in late September or even early October.


 * Jerry:  80%  - Highly likely it'll form, may be coming with us in early October if it forms.


 * Karen:  70%  - Likely going to form, may be coming in the latter parts of October.


 * Lorenzo: <font color="CC9900">55%  - A bit likely going to form and likely going to end in this name, may be coming in either late October or November.


 * Melissa: <font color="FF9933">45%  - Slightly unlikely that this will to form, if it does, it'll have to be in November or even December.


 * Nestor: <font color="CCCC66">35%  - Also unlikely will to form, if it does, it'll probably have to be in late November or December.


 * Olga: <font color="FFFF00">25%  - I doubt that we'll surpass 2018, although it still has a chance.


 * Pablo:  10%  - Nope, I doubt we'll see Pablo also.


 * Rebakah:  5%  - I would be in total shock in this name is used this year.


 * Sebastien:  2.5%  - Nope, we won't be seeing Sebastien this year.


 * Tanya:  1%  - Extremely doubt that this year will be active as 1995.


 * Van: <font color="00CC00">0.01%  - Very extremely doubt that this year will be the third-active Atl season ever.


 * Wendy and beyond:  0%  - Heck no, there's no way that we will reach Wendy and/or the Greek.

That’s all for now folks!

 Sandy 156   :)  19:52, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 01:18, August 31, 2019 (UTC)]

Beatissima's Formation and Retirement Predictions

 * Andrea - Retirement: 0%
 * Barry - Retirement: 10%
 * Three - Retirement: N/A
 * Chantal - Retirement: 0%
 * Dorian - currently active
 * Erin - Retirement: 0%
 * Fernand - Formation: 100%
 * Gabrielle - Formation: 100%
 * Humberto - Formation: 100%
 * Imelda - Formation: 90%
 * Jerry - Formation: 80%
 * Karen - Formation: 70%
 * Lorenzo - Formation: 60%
 * Melissa - Formation: 40%
 * Nestor - Formation: 20%
 * Olga - Formation: 10%
 * Pablo - Formation: 5%
 * Rebekah - Formation: 1%
 * Sebastien - Formation: 0%
 * Tanya - Formation: 0%
 * Van - Formation: 0%
 * Wendy - Formation: 0%
 * Greeks - Formation: 0%

Beatissima (talk) 22:31, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

ChowKam's Retirement Predictions
Gotta rate these juicy storms... ''Note: I am rather extreme with my retirement predicions - if a storm seems unlikely to be retired, it won't be retired. If a storm seems likely to be retired, it will be retired.''
 * Andrea: 0% - Was weak. But still, a pre-season storm is nice.
 * Barry: 5% - A nice, weird early season hurricane. Damages shouldn't warrant retirement.
 * Three: N/A - While technically a failure, it was a nice depression to watch.
 * Chantal: 0% - Weak, but was a surprise weird formation. Lasted a bit.
 * Dorian: Currently Active

ChowKam2002 (talk) 16:06, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Harveycane's predictions and grades
Overview=

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#D4AF37">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Formation chance/retirement percentages:
 * <font color="#666">0% 
 * <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9%  (Nearly 0%)
 * <font color="#00FFFF">1-9%  (Extremely unlikely)
 * <font color="#00D5D5">10-19%  (Very unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A0A0">20-29%  (Unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A000">30-39%  (Somewhat unlikely)
 * <font color="#FFC800">40-49%  (Medium)
 * <font color="#FF8800">50-59%  (Somewhat likely)
 * <font color="#E80000">60-69%  (Likely)
 * <font color="#B40000">70-79%  (Very likely)
 * <font color="#800000">80-89%  (Extremely likely)
 * <font color="#000000">90-99%  (Nearly certain)
 * <font color="#000080">100%  (Certain)

Retirement predictions and grades=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Andrea : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Weak, forgettable, short lived. Need I say more?
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Barry : <font color="#00A0A0">25%, <font color="#CF0">C - It was destructive, but not destructive enough to grant retirement. However, we did get the first and probably only hurricane from this.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Three : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#600">Z - Sorry, but you were one pathetic storm. We all thought we would see Chantal from this, but nope.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Chantal : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - After over a month and a half of waiting for the next named storm to form, all we get is this forgettable failure. However, its still better than nothing.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Dorian : <font color="#000">TBA%, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Definitely one to watch for potential retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Erin : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#900">F- - Basically a "pop up storm" during Dorian that did nothing but waste a name. Don't take the Eastern Pacifc's habits with you next time.

Overall season rating (tentative): <font color="#CF0">C  - Despite being crappy in the first part of the year, it managed to pull a 2018 and start a massive increase in activity. It can be near average by the end of the season. Future storm formation chances = Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE): Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  08:46, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * <font color="#000">Fernand : <font color="#000080">100% - May appear around peak season.
 * <font color="#000">Gabrielle : <font color="#000080">100% - Will form sometime around the peak of the season.
 * <font color="#000">Humberto : <font color="#000080">100% - We could possibly see this in late September.
 * <font color="#000">Imelda : <font color="#000000">91% - Can form by early October, as long as the uptick in activity actually happens.
 * <font color="#000">Jerry : <font color="#B40000">78% - Unless activity is doomed to be inactive the whole year, we will most likely see this.
 * <font color="#000">Karen : <font color="#E80000">63% - This is around where my certainty of these numbers begins to fall. We may see this or not depending on the basin's performance.
 * <font color="#000">Lorenzo : <font color="#FFC800">45% - This is probably where we will end this year, presuming that the season will have a near average September-October.
 * <font color="#000">Melissa : <font color="#00A000">32% - May come as a late season surprise.
 * <font color="#000">Nestor : <font color="#00A0A0">25% - Storm names from here are unlikely to be used. Unless we get an "explosion" in activity, this is unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Olga : <font color="#00D5D5">17% - Unfortunately, we may not go this far at this rate. Reaching up to 2018's levels of activity is very unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Pablo : <font color="#00FFFF">9% - I don't think we will get here this season.
 * <font color="#000">Rebekah : <font color="#00FFFF">4% - Very, very unlikely.
 * <font color="#000">Sebastien : <font color="#00FFFF">1% - You will have to defy climatology to get here at this point.
 * <font color="#000">Tanya : <font color="#AFFFFF">0.5% - Again, you can't get here without defying climatology.
 * <font color="#000">Van, Wendy and beyond: <font color="#666">0% - If you think we will get to here you are crazy. Jk, but seriously, it is NOT likely at all to get this far into the season.

The shenanigans of A2.0: retirement predictions, storm grades, etc.
Retirement chances:
 * Andrea - 0% - Should be back in 2025.
 * Barry - 3% - Had some impacts, but honestly Barry is here to stay.
 * Chantal - 0% - Thanks for waking up the Atlantic, but will remain in the lists.
 * Dorian - TBA - Keeping a close eye on this one, but so far there are already few impacts.
 * Erin - TBA - Still active, but will likely become an uneventful system.

Storm grades:

(Highest is A+++, lowest is Z)


 * Andrea - F - A preseason storm, and that's it. Epic fail though.
 * Barry - C - Had some impacts, but surprised me for reaching hurricane status.
 * Chantal - L - A sacrificial lamb, I guess. Took the L to pave the way for other storms.
 * Dorian - TBA - We'll wait and see.
 * Erin - TBA - See Dorian.

Storm formation percentages:

(Some names include wild guesses on their intensities)


 * Fernand - 100% - Must form. Will likely peak as a TS. Might become Fail-nand. Might come from the AOI fron West Africa, might peak as a major, God forbid it becomes a landfalling one.
 * Gabrielle - 100% - Must form. Probably a fishspinner, a Category 2.
 * Humberto - 100% - Must form. May hit land, but will only peak as a Category 1.
 * Imelda - 95% - Most likely to form. Might be a major though. Hopefully a fishspinner.
 * Jerry - 90% - Most likely to form. Probably a major, but won't affect land areas.
 * Karen - 80% - Most likely to form. Probably a major, might affect land.
 * Lorenzo - 70% - Most likely to form. Probably the final name, if not Melissa, Nestor or Olga. Category 1 or a strong TS, will stay at sea.
 * Melissa - 50% - Maybe yes, maybe no. Strong TS to minimal Category 1, may affect the U.S.
 * Nestor - 40% - Maybe yes, maybe no. Will likely peak as a TS if it forms.
 * Olga - 20% - Not really. However, if it forms, it might be a subtropical one.
 * Pablo - 10% - Not really. Possibly a subtropical storm or a TS if (and only if) used.
 * Rebekah - 1% - No. But there's still a chance. Would be a tropical storm at best.
 * Sebastien - 0% - Nah. Though I lowkey hope that this year would go all the way up to this name.
 * Tanya - 0% - Nah. I just don't see Tanya being used this year.
 * Van - 0% - Nah. Same with Tanya.
 * Wendy - 0% - Nah. Atlantic needs to be on steroids in order for this name to be used this year.
 * Alpha and beyond - 0% - Nah. Won't happen at all.

''Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:32, August 28, 2019 (UTC). Last edited and updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:51, August 31, 2019 (UTC).''

Lee’s retirement predictions
Might as well start this now, with Dorian becoming more and more of a threat. I won’t be doing ratings this year.


 * Andrea- 0%: It was nice that we were able to keep the pre-season streak going, but Andrea didn’t do anything, so nope.
 * Barry- 20%: Caused some damage and flooding, but I don’t see it going anywhere.
 * Chantal- 0%: Nope
 * Dorian- TBA: Currently active GUARANTEED RETIREMENT IF FORECAST PANS OUT Dorian really is one to watch right now. These forecasts are horrifying, and unless Dorian is somehow able to find a way to curve out to sea, it’s looking likely that Dorian may not be returning in 2025.
 * Erin- 0%: Not going anywhere. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:59, August 28, 2019 (UTC)

Atlantic Hurricane:
''Has been currently an inactive year thus far. However, this basin may in fact be starting to awaken from its deep slumber...'' TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:34, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Subtropical Storm Faildrea - Nice job that you formed *ahem* BEFORE THE SEASON STARTED AGAIN! Seriously, so many pre-season storms for me, almost TOO much. Plus, 40 mph for like 18 hours won't do it for me. (0%)
 * Hurricane Barry - Flooded areas inland under its ginormous blanket of rain, of course there's gonna be a retirement chance, albeit a small one. (20%)
 * Tropical Storm Chantal - ATL: How far north do you want to form? Chantal: Yes. Polar Bears: Well, we're screwed. (0%)
 * Hurricane Dorian - This one spells bad news for South Carolina. Forecast to strike the state as a C2! Stay tuned. (??%)
 * Tropical Fail Erin - Nothing. (0%)

PhTracking's Retirement Predictions and Grading
Welp, might as well make one of these grades and retirement predictions. Grades run from F- to A+.


 * Andrea - Cool pre-season storm that continued a 4 year streak, however, it only lasted 18 hours, and was also a 40 mph subtropical fail. Just another good name put to bad use. (<font color="#AAA">0% retirement, <font color="#F60">D )


 * Barry - A July hurricane, made landfall while peaking. Caused floods inland. Ugly with an exposed circulation, only lasted 6 hours as a hurricane. (<font color="#0A5">20% retirement, <font color="#CF0">C )


 * 03L - ...why? (<font color="#AAA">N/A retirement, <font color="#A00">F- )


 * Chantal - Weak storm, formed at a high latitude. Was a surprise, but a failure nonetheless. (<font color="#AAA">0% retirement, <font color="#f30">D- )


 * Dorian - Currently active and strong TC, with disputed 150 mph winds as of now. Could pose a big threat to the Bahamas, Florida, and the Carolinas, with retirement chances looking to be high. (TBD retirement, TBD)


 * Erin - An absolute failure of a storm. Exposed LLCC, was projected to form EARLIER than Dorian. The only thing Erin is important for is to boost the storm totals. (<font color="#AAA">0% retirement, <font color="#C00">F )

ph tracking  09:31, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Male "D" names (potentially for Dorian)
I'm not going to make a retirement list just yet, and this is also a bit far out, but by now almost all of the most reliable model forecasts and the NHC expect Dorian to be a large and powerful major hurricane hitting somewhere on the east coast of Florida, so it may be safe to assume that....erhm, Dorian Gray is our first retirement candidate. That being said, what are your thoughts on replacement names? Here are some, copied from Don in 2017 (which had no real chance to be retired anyways): Obviously Dylan should be our top pick, but Darren, Derek, Dante, Davion, Dexter, Diego, ect, are good too. A lot of good male "D" names are available. Ryan1000 12:05, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dylan
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Drake
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dexter
 * Drew
 * Darren
 * Daryl
 * Dominic
 * Draco
 * Dante
 * Devan
 * Davion
 * Dylan would be really excited if his name was chosen lol. I don't know if they will chose Drake due to the famous singer/rapper of the same name. I suspect that the NHC will choose something like Damien, Dominic, Darren, Dale, or Derek for the 2025 list. Maybe Dylan is possible too but I have more of a feeling that those other names might be picked instead. I would love it if Dylan was the choice though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:45, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Delany, Darcy, Dionysis, Derry, Dagobert, Doug, Declan. Beatissima (talk) 01:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dominic, Darren, Desmond and Dale are okay, but my top 4 right now: Drew, Damien, Derek, and Dylan (my top pick). Dan would be a good pick too (though it sounds like a shortened version of EPac's Daniel). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:36, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * EPac has Douglas, but I went ahead and put Doug, anyway. I think there's a precedent for different forms of a name being used simultaneously, but I can't remember the specific examples. Beatissima (talk) 01:44, August 30, 2019 (UTC)

There are many examples of two names being on the Atlantic and EPac lists at the same time that are similar to each other, I mentioned this before with Matthew in 2016 (it was replaced with Martin itself which is a variation of the EPac's Marty on list 1). Also, David was retired after 1979 and replaced with Danny while Daniel was in the EPac at that same time and both names are still in use today, as well as 1999's Floyd being retired and replaced with Franklin while Frank was already in the EPac and both names are still in use today. So Doug and Dan are definitely possibilities, but Dylan is still my top pick. Ryan1000 02:26, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Another few suggestions I have are Donovan, Devin/Devon, and Desmond. T  G  2 0 1 9 13:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

If it would be The Bahamas that gets impacted the most, Dominic/Declan/Donovan/Dan/Dale are the best possible replacement names. If it would be the U.S., they might go for Diego/Derek/Dylan/Darren/Drew. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Strongly disagree with Anon 2.0 here. I think there is a theme per naming list every year. The names used this year have a very urban, diverse feel to them and the replacement names usually reflect that, even the ones picked by the US which always tend towards the old fashioned side in most cases. Here's my take on this dilemma based on what I think each country would go for should they request retirement:

Dante is a name commonly used among Black people as well as Dorian so I won't be surprised if that ends up being the replacement name, also given the urban feel to this naming list. More British-y sounding names like Declan (O'Donnelly) and Dominic (Raab) are possible if Bahamas is picking. Diversity also is key to this list as a whole so I highly doubt they would choose a name common among baby boomer, white Americans, unlike, say last year's list. There are mostly Gen X and Millennial names here. The mix is crucial. So I personally would say Dante is my first choice. Diego would be acceptable too and likely would only fit in this Atlantic list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 16:50, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Bahamas: Dante, Deshawn, Declan, Dominic
 * USA: Dylan, Derek, Darren, Diego


 * Well, I concur. Dante and Diego would sound good in this list, knowing that this is the most diverse of the six being used by NHC. (Though I'm still kinda wondering why did you say that you disagree with me when you put the very same names that I listed there, save for Drew for the U.S. and Dante/Dan/Dale/Donovan in the names that Bahamas would possibly propose as replacement/s for Dorian). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:13, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * because you didn't mention dante or diego. I actually see either of those two being used, dante especially if the bahamas is requesting retirement. Dante is common among both black and hispanic populations, bahamas is mostly black and it'll only fit in well with this diverse naming list. PeterPiper567 (talk) 20:52, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Bad Replacement Names
Just for fun.

D: Dick, Dukey, Dilbert, Dobby, Dong, Danger. Beatissima (talk) 01:31, August 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * Would be Donald for me. Not only because of the U.S. President, but also because of Don in list 3. But we'll never know... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Post-season Changes
First TCR of the season is up, for Andrea. Lasted for 18 hours before dissipating.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:57, August 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Added the table for reference. Doesn't appear like there were any notable changes to Andrea, besides the advisory times (advisories were operationally issued at 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC, but NHC just put it to 1800 UTC on the 20th, or 2 PM EDT) for convenience. Ryan1000 20:47, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Three is also out too, since NHC doesn't have as much work this month.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Pressure got nerfed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 20:31, August 21, 2019 (UTC)