Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

Pre-Season - May
It's 2017 now, so I thought I'd add this section just in case we get another Alex-type storm. ~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits      Happy New Year 2017!    19:51, January 1, 2017 (UTC)

March AOI: East of Bahamas
Models form a subtropical-like low in a few days east of the Bahamas. Eric Blake of NHC himself has noted the possibility of development on Twitter: "Looks like a little something to watch in the SW Atlantic next week- and I'm the lucky operational guy 😳🙄 no delusions of grandeur please! " I hope we can get an extremely rare March Arlene! -Bob FORM ARLENE FORM!
 * I was hoping for another storm like this! Would this be the first time that two consecutive seasons had a storm form before May 1? T  G  2 0 1 7 19:57, March 24, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
We have Invest 90L! Highly doubt it will become Arlene but we have another March invest (we had one in 2011 as well). NHC has not issued a STWO yet, but maybe they will tomorrow if 90L can organize a bit overnight! ~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits    00:22, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't give up on this storm so quickly. All major models are showing this system becoming a named storm tomorrow, making this storm a very good candidate for our first named storm. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:58, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * The winds of this invest are already up to 40 mph, and this system is starting to look much more organized than it was last night. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:31, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still no STWO, and the system has not become any better organized. Looks like Arlene will have to wait, unfortunately, let's hope it's not too long.  ~ Bobnekaro  • Page • Wall •  Edits    20:32, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * I still think this has a potential of becoming Arlene, and the NHC is still being lazy. (Remember Lisa's TCR came out 20 days prior to the update of their page last year). T  G  2 0 1 7 21:07, March 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like nothing happened, RIP Invest 90L...March 2?-March 2?, 2017. NoJO (talk) 00:27, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

91L. INVEST
So a little swirl in the central Atlantic was designated Invest 91L by the NHC today. It has a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical storm in 48 hours and has winds about 50 mph. Come on, Arlene! Hard to believe we have 2 invests and it's not even May yet, I think 2011 had the same thing. ~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits    19:25, April 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * This has a better shot to be Arlene than 90L did, IMO. T  G  2 0 1 7 19:58, April 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Latest special TWO gives 50/50. Unfortunately it only has less than 24 hours before it gets absorbed by another extratropical cyclone. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:55, April 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * This won't be the last TWO, and I still don't think Invest 91L is done yet. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:16, April 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's actually looking not bad on satellite imagery right now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:06, April 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * And now it's 70/70! Here comes Arlene! ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:24, April 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Woah, didn't expect that! Looks like we'll be seeing our third consecutive year with pre-season storms if this becomes Arlene later today, that'd be impressive. Ryan1000 14:21, April 19, 2017 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression One
And we have our first (sub)tropical depression of the year! Unfortunately, it's not expected to become Arlene. Hopefully it does though, as it's not affecting land. Ryan1000 15:53, April 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene is likely coming at 5PM. 1-0-0. :D AL, 01, 2017042018,, BEST, 0, 373N, 407W, 40, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1010, 400, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, M,  ~ Bobnekaro  • Page • Wall •  Edits    19:25, April 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Arlene
She did it, 40 kt/993 mbar. Strongest storm in April by pressure already. T G  2 0 1 7 20:33, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * "I have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting career." Discussion quotes off to a great start already.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:16, April 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well then. I didn't expect this. Got home about 20 minutes ago, turned on The Weather Channel to see what the weather would be like the rest of the weekend, and then they cut in to announce Arlene's formation. So for the 3rd year in a row, hurricane season has started early. However, Arlene's not going to last long. It's going to be absorbed by an upper level low.  Leeboy100 Hello! 21:20, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * After a bit of checking in the best track, the only other time the Atlantic has produced a pre-season storm for 3 or more consecutive years was from 1951-54. Regardless, Arlene shouldn't last much longer; it should die out sometime tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:52, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Before Arlene dissipates, I'd at least like to see it strengthen slightly more. At most, Arlene might go to 60 mph, but that's shooting pretty high for a storm this far north in April. 50 mph might be all Arlene strengthens to. T  G  2 0 1 7 23:20, April 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Avila mention that she was probably 50mph a while ago so she will probably be up in post analysis. her formation was pretty remarkable after not being classified yesterday I didnt thought she was going to be upgrade. I am happy she shoot expectations. 181.210.62.178 01:12, April 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well well, looks like we have the first TS since April 2003, 14 years ago, when Ana formed. What a surprise to me (although it's not a shock). Arlene will soon become a rement low, sadly. But I'm so happy that I'm not out on this. :)  70.190.5.175  01:46, April 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow, yet another off-season tropical cyclone forms in the Atlantic basin this decade. This is the seventh instance now. How does this keep happening? Maybe the Atlantic basin is getting jealous of the Western Pacific for generating tropical storms and sometimes typhoons before June 1. In response to that, the Atlantic is trying to copy the Western Pacific by generating tropical cyclones before the season begins, and after the season ends. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:21, April 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, Arlene is starting to look like she's weakening. I don't think Arlene will hold on much longer, due to that monster churning southwest of her. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:53, April 21, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arlene
Arlene is gone now, but it was sure a heck of a time tracking her. T G  2 0 1 7 14:39, April 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Eh, it was nice while it lasted. Being the Atlantic's first April storm in only 14 years (considering only 3 (sub)tropical storms have formed in April, and Ana was named on the exact same date in 2003) there's not much to complain about. Ryan1000 15:27, April 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, what a storm. It was nice seeing it. It was the 3rd (sub)tropical storm in April after Subtropical Storm One (1992) and Tropical Storm Ana (2003). Now it's gone. What a rare occurrence. :) 70.190.5.175 00:55, April 22, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: 02E Regeneration
Any chance that TD Two-E from the EPac may regenerate after its remnants move into the Bay of Campeche? ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:21, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

Well, it seems possible to me, at the moment. While NHC has not upgraded Two E to a TS as per Adv 4A, it looks like we might just get a re-Hermine 2010. 182.58.70.247 11:41, June 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 182, the storm will have to survive the Mexican mountains, which is pretty hard to do in the first place, given that most storms can't even make it over Mexico or Central America without becoming a remnant low (Patricia, Karl, Gilbert, Allen, Diana, Earl, Ernesto.) Otto, Cesar-Douglas, Joan-Miriam, Fifi-Orlene, and Greta-Olivia are the exceptions in recent history. This is a tropical depression so the chances of regeneration are very low at this time. No models are forecasting it to survive over Mexico, but there is a separate system that could form in the Gulf on Monday/Tuesday. By the time it would get to the BOC, this storm would've fallen apart to much for reformation, and the very hostile wind shear in that area would make it impossible for it to regenerate. I do see that you have mentioned 11-E/Hermine in here. That system was much further south than Two-E is right now. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:55, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * The remnants of Beatriz have now made the NHC page. However, they put it at 0/0. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:47, June 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yeah, because of the strong upper-level winds that will weaken the system, tropical cyclone formation won't happen. :) 70.190.5.175 15:41, June 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I think there is no reason to put it on the page unless it actually has a chance of formation. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:54, June 4, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: NW Caribbean
0/20 on NHC's 5-day outlook. Models generally show this moving across the Yucatán Peninsula before developing in the Gulf of Mexico. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:05, June 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 0/30. Ryan1000 03:22, June 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Just went up to 0/50, won't be surprised if this is Bret. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:39, June 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up further to 0/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:51, June 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now it's up to 20/60. :) 70.190.5.175 23:25, June 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 20/70, and should soon become 93L. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:14, June 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/80 on the latest TWO. :)  70.190.5.175  20:16, June 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * 30/80, now this looks better than 92L, though it still hasn't been numbered 93L yet. NHC says they may send recon to investigate this tomorrow if organization improves. Ryan1000 20:18, June 17, 2017 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
It's now 40/80 as the invest is numbered. :) 70.190.5.175 01:47, June 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Recon may be coming in later today to see if this is Bret. It'll be heading northward towards Louisiana and Texas over the next few days. Ryan1000 08:49, June 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 60/90, recon should be going off soon. It's producing quite a bit of impressive convection over the W Caribbean right now, though the convection isn't actually that close to the surface circulation center. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:35, June 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 93L looks poised to cause a lot of precipitation in the Western Caribbean, especially Mexico and Belize. On a side note, if the NHC chooses to issue Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) advisories on this system as they are now planning to do, when will those commence? The invest is already a noticeable threat for a number of landmasses. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:07, June 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * The planned recon mission for today has been cancelled, but there may be another investigation tomorrow. Chances of development are now 70% for the next 48 hours and 90% for the next five days. Since 93L does not have a well-defined circulation, I won't be surprised if the invest does not become a tropical cyclone until after crossing the Yucatán and entering the Gulf of Mexico. On a more trivial note, if 93L becomes a tropical storm, 2017 will become the fifth Atlantic hurricane season out of the past six to have had at least two named storms form before the end of June. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:46, June 18, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Off Africa
This is fairly early in the season to see something like this, but there's a fairly well-organized wave near Cape Verde right now and is at 20% for 5 days as it moves westward across the Atlantic. This may eventually become something in the Caribbean or GoM way down the road. Ryan1000 14:16, June 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * The NHC still shows 10/20, but I think this has a shot at becoming Cindy (since the GoM storm will most likely be Bret). T  G  2 0 1 7 12:41, June 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Upped to 20/40 after NHC noted increased organization. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:52, June 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now upgraded to 40/60. This system will be either named Bret or Cindy once it's a TS. :) 70.190.5.175 23:27, June 16, 2017 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
This actually might become Bret first if it keeps up, it's gotten a lot better organized since yesterday, and if it develops east of the lesser antilles, it'll be one of only 3 June storms to do so in the Atlantic. That'd be pretty neat to see. However, if it wants to develop, it had better do so fast, because the eastern Caribbean is a shear-ridden graveyard right now and none of the major models expect this to survive to the Central caribbean without getting torn apart. Ryan1000 04:32, June 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * 40/70 with the latest TWO. It needs to detach itself from the ITCZ though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:13, June 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now back to 40/60. :) 70.190.5.175 20:13, June 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * 40/50, time is running out for this one... Ryan1000 08:50, June 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Funny how the chances of this forming are falling after it actually gets support from the models. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:18, June 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 50/50, and I don't think this one would form unless this one gets a higher chance. :) 70.190.5.175 16:34, June 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's so surprising to see the Atlantic active so far early. Also, I want to make a comment about 92L's latitude. Based on the latest NHC TWO, this system is under 10°N. To see any tropical cyclone form in this region is impressive, but even more so. I think this invest has potential to break some records if it develops. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:03, June 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 92L has become a little better organized. However, it only has a couple of days left before conditions take a turn for the worse. Regardless, those in northeastern South America and the southeastern Windward Islands should continue to monitor the invest, and chances of formation are now 60% for both the next 48 and 120 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:40, June 18, 2017 (UTC)