User blog comment:CobraStrike/Cobra Strike's Official Mid-Season Predictions for the 2011 Atlantic and Pacifc Hurricane Seasons (August 15)/@comment-1442065-20110819172634/@comment-2239664-20110821044937

But usually the first hurricane of an AHS comes at around July 31. At this time in 2010, we had one hurricane and out of our first 8 storms, we had 3 hurricanes. Out of 2005's first 8 storms, there were also 3 hurricanes. No other season has had no hurricanes out of the first 8 storms of the season. And Darren, doing the math, I would see only one or two hurricanes by the end of August. Harvey failed to become one, chances are in favor of Irene becoming one, and behind Irene we have nothing. 98L is too disorganized to develop and moving into unfavorable conditions, so it won't become Jose. However, I am surprised Irene is the third earliest date for the 9th storm, and many other near-record earliest dates were set by Gert and Harvey as well. Meterologically speaking, the ACE/storm thus far this year is only about 1.4. That's horrible, primarily because most of the storms thus far in 2011 were... failures. Irene won't be one, but it's a different story to come.