Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season/September

September
Adding this section now, since it is already September in the WPac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:59, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits, located way out to sea near Micronesia. Not yet up on JTWC's outlook. But considering all that ocean up ahead, this could be the next big one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:21, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still not yet on JTWC, but who knows... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:41, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Never mind. This invest near Guam won't become anything. Global models are not supporting this and JTWC hasn't shown 97W in its outlook either. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Another Tropical Tidbits invest, situated at the Philippine Sea. Not yet on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:41, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now coded yellow on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:36, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * This may hit the Ryukyu Islands and/or Taiwan in the coming days and enhance the SW monsoon in the Philippines, but this is expected to remain weak. This may become Neneng though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
JMA has upgraded 98W to a TD. PAGASA has not yet named this system though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:16, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Medium chance of formation now. 98W has been coded orange on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:47, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. Here comes Mangkhut... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:51, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Still not yet named Neneng by PAGASA, but it is already on JMA's typhoon outlook page. Forecast to move towards Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands later on. Hopefully this won't exacerbate Jebi's effects. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:56, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * It won't become much anymore... down to code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:23, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Barijat and Neneng will wait. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
Yet another one on Tropical Tidbits, located very close to the International Dateline. Possibly associated with a 0/0 AOI that briefly appeared on the CPac outlook near the dateline, and then crossed it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:17, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Either this invest may take its time or won't develop at all. It has plenty of ocean ahead of it, but models are not that supportive. Shear (I believe) is high in that area near the International Dateline. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ignore what I said earlier. This is now on JTWC's outlook. Code yellow as of now though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:46, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC's outlook says that models are in good agreement in developing this into a significant tropical cyclone. This could be one to watch for in the distant long run, especially with all that ocean up ahead. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:25, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26W
I presume this is now the depression that has been upgraded from a JMA TD to 26W, and this thing will absolutely explode in the coming days...first advisory on it by the JTWC and it's already forecast to become a 155 mph super typhoon, and directly hit Guam to boot. This will probably become another cat 5 down the road. Not good...as if Olivia's threat to Hawaii and Flo heading for the U.S. eastern seaboard wasn't enough. Mangkhut will be one helluva storm. Ryan1000 03:26, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * O.O Dang! And even after the end of that forecast, there is still a lot of ocean ahead. This might get record-breaking powerful... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:26, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mangkhut
And it's here. Taiwan, Guam and possibly even the Philippines, China and the Ryukyu Islands all need to prepare for this one. This may finally beat the (official) three-way tie between Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:24, September 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Some models have shifted to take Mangkhut south of Guam instead. Hopefully this trend continues as impacts will be lessened that way. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:09, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

They've also shifted towards a landfall in Taiwan or even passing south of Taiwan to take aim towards a landfall in mainland China near Hong Kong, if Mangkhut maintains category 4 or 5 intensity by then it could be one of the most destructive typhoons on record. In any instance, we're going to see a very strong typhoon from this in the coming days, and Mangkhut is also the 21st named storm of this highly active Pacific typhoon season thus far. There aren't many other Pacific typhoon seasons that have racked up 21 named storms at this time of year, and we could see a near-record number of named storms at the rate this season is going, especially considering the WPac accelerates in late September, October, and early to mid-November, unlike the Atlantic. 1964 currently holds the record with 39 named storms forming in that season, while 1997 holds the ACE record. I'm not sure if we'll get 18 more storms from here on out to tie or beat that high mark but I'd be surprised if we don't get to at least 30 named storms at this rate. Ryan1000 17:31, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Mangkhut
Now a severe tropical storm, and should be a typhoon shortly. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     20:58, September 08, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut
Now a typhoon, and expected to be a very strong typhoon as well, maybe another STY. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     03:42, September 09, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is such an ominous storm. JTWC forecast track has shifted south; this time it takes Mangkhut to northern Luzon in the Philippines. Not to mention that JTWC sees Mangkhut to reach 165 knots (305 kph/190 mph) at the end of its forecast. Guam is still on the front line. This could potentially rival Pongsona or even Karen as Guam's worst, and may become a repeat of Megi 2010 for the Philippines as well. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a C2-equivalent typhoon with 90/955.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:45, September 09, 2018 (UTC)

Or, in a worst-case scenario, if Mangkhut only slightly misses Luzon to the north but maintains its powerful future cat 4/5 intensity into China, it could possibly make a near-direct hit on Hong Kong next week, and if a cat 5 storm hits there, it would be one of the worst Pacific typhoons on record. As ominous as Flo is in the Atlantic, Mangkhut could even be worse than Flo if Hong Kong is in the firing line down the road. Also, @A2.0, the JTWC still forecasts a 155 mph cat 4 from this, but the forecast gusts are up to 190 mph though. And, if Mangkhut makes the most of the favorable conditions ahead of it, a high-end cat 5 is certainly, and unfortunately, very possible with this storm. Ryan1000 23:36, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * My bad. I looked at the gusts instead of the sustained winds. It is still forecast to peak at 155 mph. The three-way tie between Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest according to JMA may remain for a longer time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:12, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Mangkhut now expected to peak at 140 knots,and potentially plow into Hong Kong and a powerful Category 4 hurricane.No.1 Mobile (talk) 18:26, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Exploding now. JTWC must be regretting lowering their forecast at 21z... Kiewii 22:28, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

I really don't like the prospect of Mangkhut maintaining high category 4 intensity in the South China Sea, especially since the track currently turns slightly more west of northwest late in the forecast period towards Hong Kong. A category 4 or 5 hitting that city would have catastrophic consequences. They had some close calls in the past, but a direct hit to Hong Kong from a very large and strong typhoon hasn't happened in decades. Ryan1000 01:03, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Philippine news outlets are saying Mangkhut (which will be named Ompong inside the PAR) could be the strongest storm to hit Extreme Northern Luzon (Batanes/Babuyan area), do you think Ompong and Mangkhut will be retired after this storm? Jskylinegtr (talk) 03:02, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Most likely. This is an ominous monster, and I really don't like what the agencies have forecasted for this storm. Northernmost Luzon and Hong Kong (and surrounding Chinese areas) are directly in the line of fire. This is becoming a freakin' scary situation. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:56, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Honestly, this is WPac's Florence this year, but this is shaping up as a mix between Megi 2010 and Meranti. And it just tied Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest in terms of 10-minute winds and pressure (120 mph & 915 mb). That tie will certainly be broken now. Mangkhut is now a 155 mph typhoon (1-min) and it is still not done yet; JTWC sees Mangkhut to peak at 150 knots (165 mph/270 kph), and JMA's forecast brings Mangkhut's pressure down to 900 mb by Friday (9/14). Northern Luzon and Hong Kong need to prepare for this one just like how The Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic are preparing for Florence right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC's rolling best track makes Mangkhut a C5. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:28, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * The super-tie has finally been broken. 110 kts (10-min)/905 mbar per JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:06, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to enter the PAGASA zone (the Philippine area of responsibility) later today. Not looking good for northern Luzon, and in the long run, Hong Kong and southern China. Will we see Hato/Usagi 2.0 from this one? I hope not, but it is likely. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:54, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut (Ompong)
Mangkhut might also miss Luzon slightly to the north, and the latest forecast track from the JTWC continues on its southward bend and now takes Mangkhut to the west of Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta it resides upon, which would be a better scenario for China regarding overall impacts. However, it's still too soon to rule out a direct hit to the city (hopefully that doesn't happen, especially since Mangkhut will likely be a cat 5 or strong cat 4 when it nears landfall in southern China). Both this and Florence need to be closely watched over the next few days. Ryan1000 21:28, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * I would be really frightened if it directly hit Hong Kong at that sort of intensity. This may very well become the WPac's Florence. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:43, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * While PAGASA has not yet renamed Mangkhut as Ompong in the Philippines, it is 100% certain that it will do so later today (that's why I am no longer removing the header for this one). Mangkhut is still expected to miss the northernmost tip of Luzon, but things may still change. Hong Kong is still not out of the picture even if the forecast track has already shifted to its south-southwest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:13, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mangkhut is on track to become one of the most intense cyclones in history. Currently has 900 mbar.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     22:56, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not necessarily, 900 mbar isn’t unusual in the WPAC. It was the low pressure of five storms this decade: Sanba, Vongfong, Soudelor, Nepartak, and Haima. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 23:17, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Well, Ompong/Mangkhut's course is similar to Lawin/Haima's track, do you think it could cause enough damage that will guarantee both Mangkhut and Ompong's names to be retired from both lists? Jskylinegtr (talk) 01:12, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * If Mangkhut/Ompong manages to maintain its intensity or even intensify further before landfall, then it will become a definite retirement candidate for both PAGASA and JMA (the two agencies that named this typhoon). Right now, Mangkhut's pressure is still at the 900-905 mb range; some say it's at 900, JMA says it's at 905, and I have also seen someone mentioning that it is sub-900 now (898 mb). Meanwhile, HWRF is going nuts on this, but I am taking that model with a grain of salt. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:22, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Any differences between Ompong and Lawin/Haima's track? Jskylinegtr (talk) 13:51, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Their tracks are very similar until they reach China, where Mangkhut is forecast to continue on a straight westward trajectory, while Haima turned northward while dissipating and its remnants would go back out to sea. Mangkhut also formed further east. Anyway, Mangkhut is now a whopping 150 knots/175 mph according to the JTWC. Pressure is 905 mbar according to the JMA. Northern Luzon and southern China are still being threatened... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:52, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall in Cagayan
Just hours after Florence in Wrightsville Beach in North Carolina, we have another landfalling cyclone, this time in the other side of the world. At 1:40 am local time, (Super) Typhoon Mangkhut has made landfall in Baggao, Cagayan Province. Mangkhut has maintained its strength before landfall, which means that this is probably the strongest storm to hit the Philippines since Haima/Lawin two years ago (which made landfall in the same province). 905 mbars, 270 kph/205 kph. This is a monstrous typhoon, especially that it is also a large cyclone like Florence in the Atlantic (around 800-1000 kilometers in diameter!!!). Even the national capital, Manila, is currently experiencing strong winds and gusts right now. To put into perspective, Manila is roughly 400-500 kilometers south of Cagayan, where the eye of Mangkhut/Ompong is currently at. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:28, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mangkhut has crossed the northern tip of Luzon. Mangkhut is still strong though, still a low-end Category 4. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:58, September 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oh boy, 14 deaths reported so far. Hopefully it doesn't increase... 🙁 Now a weaker (although still relatively strong) system in the South China Sea, 85 knots (100 mph) according to the JTWC and 75 knots (85 mph) by the JMA. Expected to strike South China soon. This destructive and powerful monster is likely getting both its international and PAGASA names retired. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:12, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

After slamming northern Luzon as a cat 5 (fortunately not as populated as other areas of the country), Mangkhut is now heading towards a landfall in southern China as a category 2 strength storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. While Hong Kong isn't in for a direct hit from the eye, that city is more mountainous and isn't as vulnerable to storm surge. However, Guangzhou is one of China's largest cities and is located at the mouth of the Pearl River Delta, and that city could get the right-front quadrant of Mangkhut's powerful storm surge, which could make Mangkhut among China's costliest storms if its eastern eyewall strikes the city. You can read Dr. Masters latest blog post for more. Ryan1000 05:05, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Closest approach to HK - Typhoon Mangkhut (continuation)
And Hong Kong has raised Signal No. 10, the third time this decade (after Vicente and Hato). The eye of Mangkhut is still at sea, but Hong Kong and Macau are getting lashed by this storm as of the moment. Mangkhut is now down to a Category 2, with 10-minute winds at 140 kph (85 mph) and 1-minute winds at 155 kph (100 mph). Pressure has increased to 960 mb. At least 25 deaths in the Philippines so far, while at least 111 are seeking treatment in hospitals across HK. PAGASA name Ompong will definitely get retired, and Mangkhut seems to go too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:45, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * More bad news. Death toll now at 49 in the Philippines alone. Several windows of skyscrapers across HK have been damaged. Storm surge also occurred in some areas. More than 800 flights cancelled/rescheduled/delayed. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:35, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Haven't heard how bad storm surge was in the Pearl River Delta near Guangzhou, but if it was anywhere near as bad as some other historic typhoons in the area, then Mangkhut will be among China's costliest typhoons. Ryan1000 19:04, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Mangkhut
JMA has downgraded Mangkhut to STS, as pressure goes up to 980 and 10-minute sustained winds go down to 100 kph. 64 deaths in the Philippines (mostly due to landslides) and 200 injuries in HK. Meanwhile, JTWC has issued its final warning for this system, even though Mangkhut remains a Category 1 typhoon. This is exactly what Florence could have been for The Carolinas had she not weakened. Wind damage, flooding, landslides... such a nasty typhoon. Kalinga province in the Philippines even stated that agricultural damage has reached 1 billion pesos in that province alone. That simply means Ompong will get retired, and most likely, Mangkhut will follow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:10, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Ompong has just caused over 9 billion pesos in damage, so Ompong is guaranteed to be retired as a PAGASA name. Jskylinegtr (talk) 05:09, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Mangkhut
Dead now. What a catastrophic storm, 70 killed so far mostly in the Philippines. Wikipedia mentions that at least 40 of them were killed in a small mine destroyed in Itogon. A sad situation indeed. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:41, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * I have something to ask. If I am not mistaken, there was an AOI that was monitored by the CPHC last month. It was 0/0 but could that AOI and 99W (that became Mangkhut/26W) be the same system? But going back to Mangkhut, the extent of its wrath is now getting clearer. Sadly, the total death toll has increased to 86, with 81 of those deaths coming from the Philippines alone (mostly from Itogon, where the landslide occurred). Total damages are now worth at least $877 million, around >$600M of that total coming from China. The remaining >$200 million came from the Philippines (that's PHP 14.3 billion). Ompong will definitely get axed. Mangkhut may most likely be going too, especially given the trend that started in 2016, when a storm is destructive for the Philippines, its official ("international") name will also be retired (e.g. Sarika/Karen, Haima/Lawin, Kai-tak/Urduja).
 * Side note: Another landslide has occurred in the Philippines, this time in Cebu province's Naga City (not to be confused with the one in Bicol/Camarines Sur). At least 12 had died, dozens still feared to be trapped. There was no rain when the landslides occurred, but it is believed that the [southwest] monsoon rains enhanced by Mangkhut/Ompong contributed a lot to this disastrous landslide incident, the second one to occur in PH in 5 days.
 * EDIT: Steve had already somehow answered the question in the EPac forum, but neither the NHC/CPHC nor JTWC have confirmed yet whether the Lihue AOI really developed into Mangkhut. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:14, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * rip to those who got killed :/
 * also this will be kicked from the lists. no more vonfong ompong rhymes :( --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:47, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Code yellow on JTWC, located in the South China Sea near the Philippines. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Upped to code orange. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:54, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Now a TD per JMA. Still code orange on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:40, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. Not yet recognized by PAGASA though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:54, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 27W
Tropical Tidbits and Wikipedia both say that 90W is now 27W, yet I could not find it on JTWC's typhoon page. Likely to be named Neneng by PAGASA (if it ever recognizes this as a TD). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 27W (Neneng)
Now named by PAGASA. Expected to become Barijat in the next couple of hours and/or days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:46, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barijat (Neneng)
Officially named by the JMA. ~ Roy25    Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     03:19, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to slightly intensify before hitting south China and northern Vietnam. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:58, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Barijat (Neneng)
Already almost dead, but JMA keeps it up as a TD. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:55, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Barijat (Neneng)
Gone now. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:46, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
Code yellow as of now. We might get another big one from here, just like Mangkhut. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC's outlook says that models don't show intensification, but you never know... ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:45, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gone from JTWC, still present in Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:48, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * No longer on Tropical Tidbits. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:57, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
As DJ Khaled says, "anotha one"... on Tropical Tidbits. Not sure where it is exactly at though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:42, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well, it's east-southeast of Guam according to the JTWC outlook. Low chance currently. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:44, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Jumped to code orange now. This may be another big storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:45, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

Code red now, TCFA issued. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:39, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 92W)
And JMA upgrades 92W to a TD. Will likely evolve into 28W and become Trami later on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:06, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 28W
This is now a TD per the JTWC. It is forecast to become the next super typhoon, with winds reaching 150 mph within the next five days. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:58, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Trami
Upgraded to a TS by both JMA and JTWC. This may become another big one down the road. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:14, September 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * Like with Mangkhut, conditions are very favorable ahead of this and it's already forecast to become a 155 mph super typhoon by the JTWC, but as with Mangkhut, cat 5 intensity is very possible; I'd be surprised if it doesn't become another 5. Trami will likely recurve northeast and strike southern Japan down the road as a weaker but still potentially dangerous storm, so they may have to watch out so this doesn't become another Jebi. Ryan1000 22:40, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Trami
Now a severe tropical storm. This is bound to become the next big one. Expected to be named Paeng once it enters PAGASA's jurisdiction. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:38, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Trami
Up to a typhoon on JMA's scale. The ensemble model tracks have shifted southward from a recurve to southern Japan to a landfall in Taiwan, but still, this could easily become a cat 5 later this week, and Trami's slower than usual movement could be a big problem for the island, especially in flooding rains. Ryan1000 05:43, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here comes another insane monster... JTWC bringing it to 140 knots (that is 160 mph). Taiwan has to be prepared for this potentially devastating beast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:32, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Do you think this storm can be compared to Usagi/Odette in 2013? Jskylinegtr (talk) 08:21, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Trami (Paeng)
And it has entered PAGASA/Philippine territory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:11, September 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it exploded to a cat 4 already, 140 mph (110 by ten-minute sustained winds) and 935 mbars. Likely to be a cat 5 soon. The JTWC's forecast has now shifted to bring Trami just north of Taiwan, maybe the (initial) ensemble runs of the GFS weren't so out of touch after all. It's possible Trami could recurve to Japan later on, but it'll be much weaker than cat 5 strength by that time. Ryan1000 21:26, September 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now a super typhoon and probably near or at its peak intensity. It does appear it'll recurve north of Taiwan, but the Ryukyu Islands will still be highly impacted. I don't like its threat to Japan in the very long term. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:33, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Trami is developing an annular-like appearance on satellite imagery, and the storm is also stationary and it's still a 160 mph cat 5 to boot. It's now expected to eventually recurve and strike southern Japan, but unfortunately the waters of the East China Sea could be warm enough to allow Trami to maintain category 3 or even 4 intensity when it reaches mainland Japan. Not good... Ryan1000 09:26, September 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * Weakened to category 3, but Trami has a huge eye on satellite imagery and is still forecast to maintain cat 3 intensity when it reaches Japan. Worse, it may also hit Osaka, the city recently ravaged by Jebi. Ryan1000 12:59, September 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Trami has such a big eye. Still a C2 as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:43, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, it looks so big on JTWC satellite... currently impacting the Ryukyu islands at the moment. Mainland Japan should watch out. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:55, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it is still a Category 2. This is really not looking good... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:56, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now it's accelerating towards mainland Japan with C2-force winds. Hope they make it through ok. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:19, September 30, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Trami
Dead. Ryan1000 11:17, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
Another invest according to Tropical Tidbits. This is near the International Date Line though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:01, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 93W)
Still not present on JTWC's outlook page but this invest has already been classified as a TD by JMA. We may see Kong-rey from this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:35, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oops, it is actually 93W not 98W. Sorry. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:53, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:33, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued, code red now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:59, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 29W
Forgot to update, but 93W became 29W. JTWC has issued its final warning as of this writing though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:19, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of 29W
Dead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:44, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
Yet another invest in the open Pacific. Not yet on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:53, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:19, September 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued. Code red. Another one to watch out? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:52, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 30W
And it is now a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:33, September 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * JTWC makes this a powerful 145 mph category 4 typhoon following in Trami's footsteps, but this storm (Kong-Rey to-be), may not become a 5 due to the cold wake left behind by Trami. Still, southern Japan may need to watch out. Ryan1000 06:30, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 30W
Upgraded to a TS by JTWC; still not a TS on JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:42, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * This looks like another extremely powerful system in the making. In the long term, this appears to be headed towards the Ryukyu Islands and might be yet another Japan hit... not looking good. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:58, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kong-rey
And now it's Kong-Rey. Ryan1000 14:05, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Kong-rey
Kong-rey is spelled with a lowercase "r". Anyway, already a typhoon and I do not like the looks of this system in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, September 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Officially a typhoon on JMA. This is intensifying rapidly... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:55, September 30, 2018 (UTC)

Up to category 3 intensity, forecast peak up to 150 mph, but it could turn towards the Koreas down the road instead of Japan on Kong-rey's current projected path. Ryan1000 11:22, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Kong-rey (Queenie)
And Kong-rey has entered PAGASA's area. Not expected to cause any direct effect in the Philippines though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:50, October 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * And Kong-Rey is now a cat 5, at the same time as Walaka. Although Kong-rey is still forecast to weaken before striking South Korea down the road, 4 of the past 5 named storms in this basin became cat 5's. That's incredible. Ryan1000 04:37, October 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * This intensified about as rapidly as Walaka! Once again, the Ryukyu Islands should prepare for significant impacts, and maybe South Korea as well. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Kong-rey is down to cat 3, but the latest track also is projected to take it through the Korea Strait, so Kong-rey's circulation and strongest impacts might pass between SoKo and Japan instead of a direct landfall in either country. That'd be a best-case scenario. Ryan1000 13:36, October 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * As a side note, when Walaka and Kong-rey were cat 5's yesterday, it marked the first time in which a cat 5 was active in both the CPac and WPac at the same time, per a blog post from Dr. Masters. In that post, it is also mentioned that there were only 6 other instances of simultaneous cat 5's worldwide, and only 5 within the same basin: Super Typhoons Ivan and Joan in October 1997, Tropical Cyclones Ron and Susan in the SPac in early January 1998, Super Typhoons Owen and Page on November 27, 1990, Super Typhoons Lucy and Mary on August 18, 1965, and Super Typhoons Pamela and Nancy on September 11, 1961 (Carla may have also been a 5 in the Atlantic at that time, but according to the hurricane reanalysis project video that Dylan mentioned on Beryl's section in the July archive of the Atlantic this year, Carla will likely be downgraded to cat 4 in reanalysis). Ryan1000 14:41, October 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Woah, I didn't realize simultaneous C5s were that rare. Considering how inactive the CPac usually is, it seems like an almost once-in-a-lifetime event for a C5 to be active in both the CPac and another basin. Anyway Kong-rey is down to a weak 75 mph typhoon according to JMA, and the JTWC has downgraded it to a tropical storm as it moves through the Ryukyu Islands and expected to affect South Korea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Kong-rey (Queenie)
Down to STS intensity according to the JMA, but hitting South Korea at the moment. Should turn extratropical pretty soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kong-rey
Dead and gone. Hopefully impacts weren't too severe in SoKo. Ryan1000 21:48, October 6, 2018 (UTC)