Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season/Archive 1

Retirements at a glance
It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. T G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, 0.01% , 1% , 5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 25% , 30% , 35% , 40% , 45% , 50% , 55% , 60% , 65% , 70% , 75% , 80% , 85% , 90% , 95% , 99% , 100%  ) (Grading colors: A+++++ , A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5  )

International names:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 80% - Nanmadol caused more damage and caused the same amount of fatalities as Typhoon Nabi did, and it got retired. Yes, other storms that struck Japan like Talas didn't cause as much damage but caused more fatalities. When it comes to Japan, damage is the key factor for retirement.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#049">15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : Grade: <font color="#049">A+++++ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - From a Category 1 minimal typhoon to a Category 5 super typhoon. It didn't seem possible to me, but it happened. Best storm I have ever witnessed. Unfortunately, two fatalities occurred, but that isn't enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: 40% - Sonca struck Indochina very hard for being so weak. Due to Sonca's slow movement, 30-40+ deaths have been reported in that region. Sonca also caused some of the worst flooding in Thailand in years. Due to those statistics, there is a moderate chance of Sonca being retired, but due to Thailand's track record, it is likely that Sonca won't be retired.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - Nesat was a very minimal typhoon that struck Taiwan, and didn't do much damage.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Caused some damage in Taiwan and China after Nesat did, increasing damage totals in Taiwan from both storms.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Nalgae failed to meet the forecast peak intensity. Nalgae didn't affect any land, so Nalgae will be back in 2022-2024.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : Grade: <font color="#FC0">C- Retirement: 0% - Failed to meet all forecasts and also managed to become the first ever Typhoon Banyan, resulting in a grade higher than a D+. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 14:06, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Hato : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 90% - Hato was the worst storm in half a century for Macau. That will most likely make Hato leave the lists, but then again it's China. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ccffff">Pakhar : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - We'll see what happens in Macau, as it just got whiplashed by Hato. Otherwise, Hato was a very pathetic storm. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:10, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffe775">Sanvu : Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Sanvu defied a few of the first forecasts for the storm, which was cool. Sanvu unfortunately killed someone in the Mariana Islands, but that won't get Sanvu retired.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Mawar : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Another Pakhar.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Guchol : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Unfortunately, my two favorite names were used for crappy, pathetic storms this year. This pulled a Roke-esque fail (my first favorite name), and took the same path as Hato, Pakhar, and Mawar all over again. Tbh, these South China Sea storms are very boring this year. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:06, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Talim : Grade: <font color="#CF0">B Retirement: 30% - Talim was a very powerful typhoon, obviously, and struck Japan after weakening some. Two are dead, and flooding was very significant, which could prompt a slight chance of this storm's retirement.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Doksuri : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 0% - Even though this was a bad storm, Vietnam will probably never retire a storm in the West Pacific basin.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Khanun : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: <font color="#094">25% - Typhoons at peak intensity don't slam into Hainan very often. Especially in Northern Hainan Island. Khanun did that and caused about $200 million in damages. I'm not expecting it to go because China is like the Mexico of the WPac.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Lan : Grade: <font color="#390">A- Retirement: 10% - The second largest cyclone on record, Lan did very minor damage to Japan. If Lan had become a C5 super typhoon, the grade would've been an A+++++. Good job, Lan.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Saola : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Another storm that failed to meet its prediction. Waste of a good name.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Damrey : Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Even though Damrey killed 125 people, the country of Vietnam has never retired a storm name and never will.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haikui : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - And the 2012 snubbed name of the year comes back, only as a tiny weakling that barely did anything. T  G  13:25, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

PAGASA names:
 * All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

Final retirements:
 * Retired (81-100%): Hato
 * Maybe retired (40-79%): Nanmadol, Sonca
 * Honorable mentions (20-39%): Talim, Khanun
 * Not retired (≤19%): All others T  G  2 0 1 7 21:14, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
50% or more=italics

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , 7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#330000">99% , 100% , <font color="0000FF">TBA  )

(Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

No grading because I'm too lazy to do all of this.

Here goes nothing...

International PAGASA That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:04, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

(Last updated by: --68.106.0.77 23:35, November 17, 2017 (UTC))

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

JMA names

 * Muifa, Merbok - 0% - See you again in 5-7 years.
 * Nanmadol - 65% - If Nabi '05 got retired for causing similar death toll and cost of damage (30+ fatalities and nearly $1 billion damage), it is likely that Nanmadol may be retired. However, Talas '11 did not get retired, so I am doubtful if Nanmadol gets retired. (UPDATE as of 12/24: damage totals have reached $1.99 billion, this just means Nanmadol has a good shot to be retired after this season.)
 * Talas - 10% - Damaging, but Vietnam and the rest of Indochina has seen worse. (Also, its 2011 incarnation was more notable than this one.)
 * Noru - 4% - One of the best storms of the season. 2 deaths so far, damage still unknown, but uonestly Japan has seen worse. (Nanmadol '17 was even worse)
 * Kulap - 0% - Fish spinner.
 * Roke - 5% - Made impact, but not quite notable.
 * Sonca - 20% - See Talas. (Plus the fact that the retirement record of Indochina countries are not that good.)
 * Nesat - 10% - Had some effects too, and the damage totals are not yet fully reported. Its 2011 incarnation, just like Talas, was more significant in terms of impact. China has seen worse though.
 * Haitang - 5% - Same with Nesat, although much weaker.
 * Nalgae, Banyan - 0% - Please refer to Kulap's.
 * Hato - 80% - The damage it caused in Macau (and rest of southern China) is just bad. Costliest of the season so far, and is also potentially the costliest typhoon ever (if the $18.5 billion damage total is proven to be true). This is the strongest retirement candidate of the season.
 * Pakhar, Sanvu, Mawar, Guchol, Talim - 3% - Minimal impacts.
 * Doksuri - 45% - Honestly, Doksuri is a toss-up for me, since it caused 45 fatalities and $745 million damages. That is significant, but not as significant compared to Hato, and later in the season, Damrey and Tembin.
 * Khanun, Saola - 2% - Very minimal impacts.
 * Lan - 40% - lower death toll and damage totals compared to Nanmadol, but still killed 17 and managed to cause $1 billion worth of damages. This is a toss-up for me too.
 * Damrey - 60% - Had this hit either China, Philippines, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan, the percentage would be higher. However, Damrey affected Vietnam, a country infamous for its lax attitude in retiring typhoon names. It is a very destructive system; it is probably the costliest to hit Vietnam (since the damage total hit $1 billion too). Also, this storm caused 151 deaths, the season's deadliest until Tembin happened in mid-December. Then again, this storm affected Vietnam, so the retirement chances for Damrey is not as high compared to Hato and (later on) Tembin.
 * Haikui - 3% - Made an impact on the Philippines, but other than causing rainfall, it did nothing (fortunately). (No fatalities reported too!)
 * Kirogi - 5% - Caused 10 deaths, but aside from that, it inflicted little to no damage.
 * Kai-tak - 40% - Had this system hit the Philippines weeks before Tembin, the chances of retirement would be higher, but it was overshadowed by the stronger late-season storm. 54 fatalities and $33.4 million (~PHP 1 billion) is no joke – that's the reason why its PAGASA name (Urduja) got axed from the list – but if other storms [of roughly the same intensity and caused similar destruction] did not have their names retired (i.e. Aere 2011, Fung-wong & Jangmi 2014), then why retire Kai-tak?
 * Tembin - 70% - Oh no. Did not expect a Washi-like situation again in Northern Mindanao; so many eerie similarities between the two: from the Japanese name, to the areas affected, and to the fate of their affected areas. 208 deaths as of this update, and it is expected to rise in the coming days. Same scenario for the damage total, which as of now, has not yet reached the billion-peso mark. This is the worst since Haiyan for PH as a whole, and the worst since Bopha for Mindanao island. This shall go, but if Lingling 2001 did not get retired (it also affected Mindanao and the Visayas), I am afraid that Tembin may still get snubbed (I hope not though).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:20, December 24, 2017 (UTC).

PAGASA names

 * Auring to Fabian: 0%. No, just no. See y'all in 2021
 * Gorio: 5%. Notable, but the Philippines had seen worse episodes of the enhanced SW monsoon. Maring '13 (Trami '13) wasn't retired, so why retire Gorio?
 * Huaning to Lannie: 0%. Little impact to the Philippines.
 * Maring: 10%. Caused flooding, but not as worse as previous storms that affected the country.
 * Nando to Tino: 0%. Try again in 2021!
 * Urduja: 100%. Bye! You met the requirement for the damage total.
 * Vinta: 100%. And so are you. Worse than Urduja, Vinta is the deadliest and most destructive to hit Mindanao since Pablo/Bopha in 2012.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:53, December 24, 2017 (UTC).

Retirements from Steve
Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.
 * International: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all storms excluding PAGASA storms.
 * PAGASA: Same as above, except for storms in the PAGASA area of responsibility.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly.

International=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#A00">Z - Affected the Caroline Islands, but without damage/deaths. It lasted a week, which prevents me from giving this my worst grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#F80">D+ - South China has been through much worse, so don't expect a retirement here.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F50">D - Has a likely chance at retirement due to the damage and deaths it caused in Japan. The storm's relatively weak strength might try to hold it back from retirement though.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#F50">D - Retirement is doubtful. Its 2011 incarnation has done much worse.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#006">A+++(x∞)  - One of the most awesome storms I have ever seen, becoming the 3rd longest lasting WPac storm on record as well as really unexpectedly becoming a C5 super typhoon during an explosive intensification stunt. 2 reported deaths, but damage was not extreme.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F20">D- - A weakling, but defied forecasts and lasted for a week. This gives it a barely passing grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#F00">F - Although a failure, it reached a low pressure for a 40 mph storm as well as caused plenty of impacts and deaths. More destructive and deadly than Talas. The deaths and damage from flooding (including from Thailand's worst flash floods in years) gives this a shot at retirement. Indochina's retirement record is not that great however.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#A00">Z - Pathetic failure, but brought rain to land and lasted two days. Also rose the HKO typhoon warning signal to 8.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#FF0">C - $281 million in damage caused, and sadly 3 deaths.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#F00">F - Weak, but 50 mph/985 mbars make it avoid the Z classifications. Caused more damage in the region Nesat hit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F00">F - Weak fishie that was quite pathetic.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#8F0">C+ - Became a C2-equivalent, but had potential to get stronger.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Hato : <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#0B3">B  - RI'd to exceed all predictions, but was very destructive. As one of the worst storms in Macau's recent history, 53 fatalities and a whooping $6.82 billion in damage will almost certainly make this leave the lists. China's track record kind of sucks though. If it isn't retired, I would faint.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Pakhar : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#F50">D - Failed to meet initial forecasted intensity (but still became a STS). 12 deaths and $116 million shouldn't be enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Sanvu : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Mostly a fishspinner, but affected the Mariana Islands and caused a 33-year old woman to drown.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Mawar : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#F50">D - Minor damage and no deaths. Won't be retired
 * <font color="#00faf4">Guchol : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) - Slightly affected land like Mawar did, with no damage/deaths. But this was an epic fail, waste of a good name.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Talim : <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#03B">A - Caused some record 24-hour rainfall and caused hundreds of thousands to evacuate. This has a slight retirement chance due to $700 million in damage.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Doksuri : <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Considered to be the "most powerful storm in a decade" for Vietnam. 45 were killed, and Vietnam was seriously impacted. Vietnam has never retired a storm name before however, so I'm giving it a quarter.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Khanun : <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Doesn't appear that it was too bad throughout its path. Although damage totals were significant, it shouldn't really be enough for retirement. But it unfortunately caused 1 fatality.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Lan : <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#068">A- - After becoming one of the largest TCs on record, it got very destructive for Japan. 17 deaths and $1 billion have unfortunately occurred. Grade would have been higher if it didn't scupper C5.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Saola : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#FB0">C- - Not too bad in terms of damage, but it caused no deaths so I'm pretty sure that it's staying.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Damrey : <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#FB0">C- - Will possibly be retired due to 151 deaths and significant damage. Probably one of the worst storms to ever hit Vietnam. I would usually give a much higher chance for storms like this, but like Doksuri, I'm giving it a quarter because Vietnam has never retired a storm name before and Indochina is overall bad with retirements. I hope they can start to retire names after this year though because I would condemn Damrey and Doksuri being snubbed, especially Damrey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haikui : <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#A00">Z - Pathetic, laughable fail that scuppered an initial forecast for a typhoon and faceplanted in the middle of the South China Sea, much to the entertainment of the wiki's audience. Haikui affected the Philippines and caused slight damage, so it gets a very tiny retirement chance.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kirogi : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) - A weak name-stealer (even weaker than Haikui), and yet another boring South China Sea storm. It still slightly affected land though, but unfortunately caused 10 deaths and more significant damage than Haikui.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kai-tak : <font color="#8F0">50%, <font color="#A00">Z - A chance of retirement due to 54 deaths in the Philippines and over ₱1 billion in damage, which caused its auxiliary name "Urduja" to be retired. However, in terms of deaths, it seems to be overshadowed by Tembin/Vinta.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Tembin : <font color="#FB0">65%, <font color="#FB0">C- - Incredibly deadly and destructive for Mindanao, likely will go.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



PAGASA=


 * <font color="#00faf4">Urduja : <font color="#707">100% - Meets the damage requirement of ₱1 billion, and in fact was even more damaging than Vinta.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Vinta : <font color="#707">100% - Meets the damage requirement, having caused ₱2.08 billion. Very deadly, more so than Urduja, but still under the secondary requirement of 300 deaths.
 * All other names: <font color="#888">0% - They don't meet the retirement requirements.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are the only percentages used in this basin. Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



In summary...= Certainly Retired: Hato, Urduja, Vinta

Likely Retired: Nanmadol, Lan, Tembin

Possibly Retired: Sonca, Talim, Kai-tak

Probably Not Retired: Merbok, Talas, Noru, Nesat, Pakhar, Doksuri, Khanun, Saola, Damrey

Not Retired: Muifa, Kulap, Roke, Haitang, Nalgae, Banyan, Sanvu, Mawar, Guchol, Haikui, Kirogi, all PAGASA storms except for Urduja and Vinta

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-85%
 * "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
 * "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
 * "Not Retired": 0-2.5%



Other Info= ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:19, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
 * This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The color for the ≥185 mph C5 is made up and not part of the official color classification.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Might as well make some calls:

JMA names: PAGASA Names: Ryan1000 22:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Muifa - 1% - Only minor effects to some islands in the WPac. It'll be back in ~6 years.
 * Merbok - 6% - Caused some damage to southern China but they've snubbed worse storms than this.
 * Nanmadol - 40% - Somewhat notable storm for Japan, though I'm not sure if this'll be retired. They did snub a few storms that were worse, but we'll see.
 * Talas - 5% - Wasn't too bad for Vietnam.
 * Noru - 25% - Temporary percentage; currently the damage isn't known yet, but fortunately the death toll is low, even lower than Nanmadol.
 * Kulap - 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Sonca - 5% - Not much different from Talas.
 * Roke - 1% - Even less than Merbok, and that's not going either.
 * Nesat - 5% - Caused some damage to Taiwan and China but they've seen much worse and it's not going.
 * Haitang - 1% - Caused some damage, but again, it's not enough.
 * Nalgae - 0% - See Kulap.
 * Banyan - 0% - Brought waves to Wake Island, but no damage or deaths were reported.
 * Hato - 85% - While China has snubbed some destructive, billion-dollar storms before, but Hato did almost 3 billion dollars in damage to the area around Hong Kong and killed 26, so I believe chances are in favor of Hato going.
 * Pakhar - 7% - Caused minor impacts to southern China, but Hato was much worse.
 * Sanvu - 1% - Killed a person, but that's it.
 * Mawar - 1% - Minor effects in China.
 * Guchol - 1% - ^^
 * Talim - 15% - Caused some damage and deaths to Japan, but Japan has seen worse than Talim.
 * Doksuri - 75% - Was reportedly the strongest typhoon to hit Vietnam in 10 years and one of the costliest storms in the country's history, with more than 700 million dollars in damage to the country. I'd say this has a fairly good shot at retirement.
 * Khanun - 10% - Caused extensive impacts here and there, but it's probably not enough.
 * Lan - 8% - Hit Tokyo as a cat 2, but the world's largest city is well-prepared for typhoons, and with only 21 million in damage and 7 deaths, I have a hard time seeing how this will get retired.
 * Saola - 2% - Skimmed southern Japan, but wasn't too bad for them.
 * Damrey - 80% - Over a billion in damage and 112 deaths? I'd say Vietnam will probably axe this thing.
 * Haikui - 4% - Minor storm, not happening.
 * Kirogi - 6% - Overshadowed by Damrey and Doksuri.
 * Kai-Tak - 10% - It's PAGASA name may be gone, but it's JMA name isn't going anywhere.
 * Tembin - 55% - Although the Philippines has snubbed some bad storms in the past *cough*Fengshen '08*cough*, this one was somewhat deadly for the country, so it may go. It's PAGASA name is gone anyhow.
 * Urduja and Vinta - 100% - Met the retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage.
 * All other names - 0% - No other storm on their list has met their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities.

Replacement names
-Nanmadol replacement options- Since Nanmadol is a landmark in Micronesia, here are some replacement options:
 * Sawarlap - A waterfall in Micronesia
 * Sawartik - The twin waterfall of Sawarlap
 * Winipat - A mountain
 * Lelu - Ruins in Micronesia (Best in my opinion)

-Hato replacement options- Since Hato is a name of a constellation (Columba):
 * Tori - bird-of-paradise/Apus
 * Okami - wolf/Lupus (My favorite)
 * Kitsune - fox/Vulpecula

I do know that it is much harder to figure out the replacement names of a WPac storm, but I tried to think of the best options. Tell me which one is your favorite. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:40, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Forgot to add here, but my best picks would either be Sawartik or Lelu for Nanmadol. For Hato, I would choose Tori or Okami. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:43, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unlike replacement names in other basins, guessing the replacement names of retired JMA names is almost impossible since they don't have to start with the retiree's first letter, or be Human/English names. But it's a good idea to look at the country affected to get an idea of what names could replace the name in question. I'll pick Lelu and Okami out of those names, but there are many more possibilities. Ryan1000 00:55, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * I've subdivided replacements for each storm below, much like what was done for the Atlantic. T  G  13:58, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

For Nanmadol
Okay, so I'm gonna sort this out like the Atlantic. Nanmandol is a landmark in Micronesia, so I have names below:
 * Sawarlap - A waterfall in Micronesia
 * Sawartik - The counterpart/twin waterfall of Sawarlap.
 * Winipat - A mountain in Micronesia.
 * Lelu - Ruins in Micronesia
 * Gilbert - Named after Gilbert Islands in Micronesia
 * Yosiwo - Named after Vice President Yosiwo P. George.

Out of these, I think that Winipat or Lelu should be chosen. Then again, there are hundreds of more names that could be selected that are not on this list. T G  My Birthday 13:58, November 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nanmadol has hit the $2 billion mark, as $1.99 billion is about the same as $2 billion, so I think Nanmadol could be retired, unless it is overshadowed by Lan. Right now, I still think Winipat should replaced Nanmadol. T  G  My Birthday 13:05, December 30, 2017 (UTC)

Potentially for Sonca
Sonca is a type of Vietnamese bird. Since Sonca has caused many deaths in Thailand and major flooding, I have found a few names to replace it:
 * Shama - A type of Vietnamese bird.
 * Anas - Duck
 * Turnix - Buttonquail
 * Coturnix - Quail
 * Tringa - Greenshank

Out of these names, I believe that Shama or Tringa would be the best to replace Sonca. I know that it is very hard to predict replacements in this basin, and this is no exception. T G  My Birthday 13:58, November 12, 2017 (UTC)

For Hato
Hato's damages range from $4.31 billion to $18.7 billion, and the latter would make it the costliest typhoon on record. Since Hato is a constellation (Columba), below are names that could replace it:
 * Tori - bird-of-paradise/Apus
 * Okami - wolf/Lupus
 * Kitsune - fox/Vulpecula

Hato is probably the best retirement candidate this year. Out of these names, I choose Okami. T G  My Birthday 13:58, November 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * To add to this, my new pick for the replacement of Hato is Hakucho, following the trait of bird names: Washi (Eagle), Hato (Dove/Pigeon), and Hakucho (Swan). Other potential candidates are Karasu (Crow), Kuren (Crane), and Kujaku (Peacock). T  G  2 0 1 8 16:22, January 10, 2018 (UTC)

Potentially for Lan
The cost of damages in Japan from Typhoon Lan also breached the billion-dollar mark, like Nanmadol. Feel free to add your suggestions on Lan's possible replacement names, since I have not yet thought about it yet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:45, December 24, 2017 (UTC)

Potentially for Kai-tak
Since Kai-tak has a good chance to be retired, I will list some potential names. Since Kai-tak is a closed airport in Hong Kong, closed airport names in China/Hong Kong are listed below:
 * Xiaoshan
 * Jianqiao
 * Xiangtang
 * Longhua

Which one do you think is the best out of these names? T G  My Birthday 13:55, December 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maybe name them after peaks/hills in Hong Kong (see: Fung-wong, Ma-on, etc.)? I suggest Woyang (Wo Yang Shan, 5th highest peak of HK), Austin (other name for Victoria Peak; not to mention that this would be in line with Dolphin & Lionrock), Patsin (Pat Sin Leng, a mountain ridge) or Namlong (Nam Long Shan, also known as Brick Hill). Island names can also be used. Examples would be Heiling/Hayling (Hei Ling Chau) and Shekkwu (Shek Kwu Chau). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:45, December 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * It has to be after the theme of closed airports so the replacement name makes sense. It would be really off-topic to name it after a peak in Hong Kong. T  G  My Birthday 19:06, December 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Tingting (a girl's name) was replaced by Lionrock (a peak) though, but okay. Besides, there is no formal rule that says the name should be replaced by another name of the same category (although Japan is doing that; Washi to Hato being the prime example). By the way, why would Hong Kong choose a name of a closed airport in mainland China to replace Kai-tak instead? China has their own names submitted to the WPac list; so is Hong Kong. Hong Kong has other airports/airfields in their jurisdiction, and these are (and were) Fanling, Shek Kong and Sha Tin. Those three (as Fanling, Shekkong & Shatin) are possible replacements to Kai-tak if it ever gets retired. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:16, December 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Most commonly, in all of the fourteen different countries, they try to stay on the same topic. In North Korea, they had Mujigae get replaced by Surigae, which are both different types of eagles. T  G  My Birthday 00:41, December 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fair point, as there are countries who do that, with Japan as the most obvious one (constellations). Micronesia also did the same when Soudelor was retired; they replaced it with Saudel – the trusted guard of (chief) Soudelor. However, that does not mean the countries should stay on the same category. While the Philippines replaced Bilis with Maliksi (both adjectives), they also replaced Imbudo (funnel) with Molave (a type of tree). Thailand replaced Morakot (emerald) with Atsani (lightning flash), obviously not on the same topic. Ditto with Micronesia in the case of Rananim, Fanapi and Rai; those three are not related at all, as Rananim is defined as "hello", Fanapi means "small atoll islands", and Rai refers to the stone money of Yap island. Hong Kong did not stay on the same topic when they replaced Yanyan with Dolphin, or Tingting with Lionrock, so I will not be surprised if HK will replace Kai-tak with another name that is not a name of an airport/airfield. Then again, it is uncertain whether or not Kai-tak will be retired after this season, as several other storms overshadowed Kai-tak. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:17, December 29, 2017 (UTC)

And since Urduja is a goner, what about replacements for that?

For Tembin
This is almost certain, given the fact that the Philippines has a somehow consistent retirement record after snubbing Conson & Megi in 2010.

Possible replacements (aside from the ones mentioned for Hato):
 * Uoza (Pisces in Japanese)
 * Iteza (Sagittarius)
 * Kujaku (Pavo, which means peacock)

That's all for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:45, December 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * For now, I would pick Hebi (Serpens/Snake) for Tembin's replacement. T  G  2 0 1 8 16:14, January 10, 2018 (UTC)

And since Vinta has the damage qualifications to be retired from the PAGASA lists, what do you think the replacement will be?