Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season/Pre-Season-June

January AOI: ULL that becomes... uh Adrian?
GFS has the wicked idea of developing a TC from a ULL just a week from now.

http://prntscr.com/dyan1a - peak

http://prntscr.com/dyanax - IR at possible peak

user | Monseur Roussil 97  | user

AOI: SE of Mexico
Both the GFS and ECMWF consistently develop a hurricane to the south of Mexico in about 8 days. They're quite uncertain about the landfall location though. The GFS is insisting on landfall in El Salvador (!), while the ECMWF now moves this into Mexico but previously showed it doing some weird cyclonic loop while becoming a powerful major. Interesting days are ahead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:00, May 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * The NHC has put this on their TWO, with a 0/40 chance of forming. I won't be surprised if this becomes Adrian. T  G  2 0 1 7 17:11, May 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/50. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:13, May 7, 2017 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
20/70, this has a good chance to become Adrian sometime within the next week, looks like the EPac is getting off to another early start. Ryan1000 03:04, May 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 50/80. Adrian is likely coming. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:20, May 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70/90, should become Adrian sometime tomorrow or Wednesday. Unfortunately, the projected 5-day path takes this almost due northwest into southern Mexico or Central America instead of out to sea. Hopefully it's not too bad for them when it develops. Ryan1000 03:47, May 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
Another off-season system.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:29, May 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian
It could reach Cat 3 before landfall.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:32, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * The forecast for Mexico isn't looking good right now. I wouldn't rule it out being a Cat 4 either. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * And I thought I had seen everything. First, Arlene forms in April, and now, Adrian become the earliest named tropical cyclone in the history of the Eastern Pacific. This is a one of a kind storm. I do find it cool that the earliest named Central Pacific tropical cyclone formed a year ago. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:07, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * The forecast now shows that Adrian won't become a hurricane within five days. Adrian is also weakening to, so I don't know if it will actually reach hurricane strength at all. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:58, May 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * I think Adrian will become an Ivette-esque failure, or even a Failicia.108.69.97.185 23:09, May 10, 2017 (UTC)(Temp IP of 182)


 * CIMSS now shows Adrian as a TD. We'll wait for NHC to make it official before making a new header. Quite a bad bust, mix of Ivette and Failicia. 😡108.69.97.185 02:32, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Adrian
Remember Genevieve?-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:26, May 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * More like Failicia now. NHC forecast no longer shows regeneration. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:58, May 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if the earliest-forming known TC in the EPAC proper should be considered a fail. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian
For what it's worth, though... ker-death. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:15, May 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * I would agree that the earliest storm isn't really a failure standard, but it shouldn't have been a puny storm like Failicia. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:53, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
This is at a 50% chance of developing for the next 5 days. It may become Beatriz as it nears southern Mexico, though even if it doesn't heavy rain is going to happen either way. Ryan1000 04:15, May 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/50 for this system. It's just a few hundreds of miles from Mexico. :) 198.233.146.2 05:47, May 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 10/60 for that. :) 70.190.5.175 21:12, May 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Upgraded into 20/60. Now I can feel it's coming. :) 70.190.5.175 02:00, May 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 70/80. The system's getting ready to form! :) 70.190.5.175 00:31, May 31, 2017 (UTC)




 * Models aren't being particularly enthusiastic about this due to its proximity to land, but it could still be damaging nonetheless. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:20, May 31, 2017 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
90/90 and T1.5 from SAB. ASCAT data from SAB shows 30 kt winds and a closed circulation. We might likely see advisories at 1100 hrs PDT...1800 UTC. --182.58.81.219 12:59, May 31, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
Here it is, a new depression. 02E just formed from the invest. The NHC predicts that it will be named (Beatriz) and impact (not making landfall) Mexico. Advisory 1s are issued. :) 70.190.5.175 16:18, May 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also, I forgot to mention that a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect in Mexico. :) 70.190.5.175 16:22, May 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Even if it doesn't become strong, it'sclose proximity to the coast of southern Mexico could mean serious rainfall for the southern tip of the country. The current forecast peak on this storm is 60 mph, but that's late in the period when it could be heading out to sea, at which point this could be a hurricane before it eventually dissipates. Ryan1000 18:26, May 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now it is forecasted to make landfall in Mexico. :) 70.190.5.175 00:57, June 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Its now expected to head for the BoC. Does anybody feel that it could be a reverse Otto (in crossover)?182.58.51.145 05:10, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Looks like the initial forecast was off, and this won't become much stronger than a minimal TS at this point when it hits southern Mexico tomorrow. 182, this is probably not going to survive crossing over to the BoC, because it's only going to be a minimal Beatriz or TD when it hits Mexico. Otto hit Costa Rica as a major hurricane and the distance Otto crossed to get to the EPac was much smaller than the distance this will have to cross to reach the Atlantic. Though I wouldn't put it past this to regenerate in the GoM, I wouldn't count on it. Ryan1000 05:26, June 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Is the NHC insane?? Two-E has T#3.0, yet the advisory suggests a deterioration of the cloud pattern after the T# came as the reason its still a depression. CIMSS data says otherwise. In fact all data suggests that Two-E is a tropical storm. NHC is clearly crazy. 182.58.68.152 10:41, June 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * No, the NHC isn't insane. The T-numbers of the system do not matter, it is the actual intensity of the storm that matters. Now, Two-E is only going to be a depression. We'll wait much later in the month for Beatriz. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:44, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Beatriz
well this unexpected lol.

user | Monseur Roussil 97  | user 18:32, June 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Woah, I never expected this would happen because of its proximity to Mexico. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:53, June 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unexpected to hear that we've the second TS in the basin this year. Despite the close proximity to Mexico, it intensified into a tropical storm. Never knew that this happened. :) 70.190.5.175 23:57, June 1, 2017 (UTC)




 * 2017JUN02 004500 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 15.77 96.58 FCST GOES13 30.9
 * Inland per CIMSS data. 182.58.57.41 02:07, June 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * EDIT- SAB also just declared a landfall.

Tropical Depression Beatriz
Made landfall and weakened to TD.--182.58.83.25 07:17, June 2, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Beatriz
Dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over Mexico. Shear should not allow regeneration over the GoM.182.58.71.170 15:52, June 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Welp, it's gone. Weakened into a PTC, Beatriz previously made landfall at Mexico. Beatriz killed 3 people as of now. :) 70.190.5.175 16:12, June 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * 3 deaths and counting, that is. There are still several people missing. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, June 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * 7 deaths now, hopefully it doesn't rise further. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:12, June 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
A new one is on the TWO, this is at 20% for 5 days. It might become a short-lived Calvin sometime next week. Ryan1000 21:02, June 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * 10/30, but models aren't really enthusiastic on this one. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:58, June 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now upgraded to 30/50. :) 70.190.5.175 23:43, June 10, 2017 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and up to 60/70. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:18, June 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * 90/90, this should become 3-E or Calvin very soon. It'll pass close to or make landfall over southern Mexico over the next few days. Ryan1000 20:33, June 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-E
Forecast to become Calvin in a while. Tropical storm warnings are up again. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:01, June 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * This system is forecasted to be a short-lived TS as it makes landfall in Mexico. :)  70.190.5.175  05:21, June 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Calvin
As it was nearing Mexico, it intensified to our third TS of the season, Calvin. It will make landfall hours later. :) 70.190.5.175 23:41, June 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is now making landfall in Mexico. Expect floods to occur later. :) 70.190.5.175 02:22, June 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Calvin
Down to a TD, should die soon. Ryan1000 08:36, June 13, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Calvin
No longer a TC, but NHC says that Calvin will still cause flooding and mudslides over southern Mexico for the next few days. Ryan1000 14:38, June 13, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Southern Mexico/Guatemala
Everyone is focused on Cindy, but here we have a 10/30 low-pressure system that is expected to develop slowly. Dora the Explorer anyone? :P ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:46, June 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * 20/50. Models show moderate TS tracking well south of Baja California in about a week. UPDATE: 30/60 now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:21, June 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * 50/70. Forecast to head offshore Mexico if it develops, but there's nothing besides Cindy right now in the Atlantic, so I guess it's nice to see the EPac kick up again. Ryan1000 13:04, June 23, 2017 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
70/80 now. ECMWF brings this onshore near Jalisco, but the EPS brings this just east of Socorro Island, with the GFS, GFS-P, and ECMWF-P somewhere in between while the UKMEt develops this sooner but also kills it off too quickly, if the SHIPS shear forecasts are correct. The ECMWF keeps it weak, along with the UKMET and HWRF, but everything else makes this is a near hurricane or an actual one. Good chance this becomes the strongest EPAC storm of the season, and I'd give it a decent shot at a hurricane if this continues to organize before SST's due to the extreme southern California Current become less favorable in 4-5 days, where it will rapidly weaken. YE Pacific Hurricane  18:20, June 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Dora (the Explorer😝) is coming very soon. This organized quicker than I ever expected. A weak hurricane is a major possibility from the invest, but a major is taking it too far due to the California Current it will encounter. ~  Steve  <span  My Edits  📧 02:05, June 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80/90. If 93E continues developing at this rate we may see Hurricane Dora in a couple of days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:21, June 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * 90/90. This really shall become Dora. Anonymous 2.0(talk) 19:24, June 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * 93E already looks like a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery. I hope this becomes stronger and longer-lived than the previous three EPAC tropical storms. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:15, June 25, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
Invest 93E has developed enough convection and organization to be classified as a tropical depression per the NHC. With a current intensity of 25 knots (30 mph)/1006 mbar (hPa), the NHC forecasts Tropical Depression Four-E to move parallel to the Mexican coastline, bringing slight precipitation to areas such as Oaxaca and Guerrero. Intensitywise, the depression has approximately 48 hours of favorable conditions before reaching cooler waters. While the latest NHC forecasts calls for a peak intensity of 60 knots (70 mph), it is completely plausible that Four-E will become a hurricane, barring a re-Adrian does not occur. Here comes the explorer (assuming it becomes a tropical storm)! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:53, June 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Four-E is probably going to be Dora the Explorer by tomorrow or so. I really am hoping a hurricane comes out of this, since there's nothing really stopping this thing until it encounters cool water by Tuesday. I like how we still associate the name with a show we watched when we were little kids. 😛 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:04, June 25, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dora
And it's here. Now it's forecast to become a hurricane, albeit not a strong one. Ryan1000 13:59, June 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Six hours after becoming a TS, Dora is now the strongest storm this season. A moderate Category 1 hurricane is now being forecast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:57, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dora is organizing itself very quickly. Winds are already at 45 knots (50 mph) and the pressure has fallen to 1001 mbar (hPa), making this storm, as mentioned, the strongest of the EPAC so far (a la 2011). With low shear and other favorable conditions, Dora should continue intensifying, and the NHC has upped their forecast peak to 75 knots (85 mph). However, SHIPS is also indicating an above average probability of rapid intensification, meaning that Dora could easily become a Category 2 or even a major hurricane. However, it only has about 48 hours to take advantage of the favorable conditions. Motionwise, Dora should continue moving parallel to the Mexican coastline, bringing slight amounts of precipitation. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:00, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm officially back from my vacation. Anyhow, Dora will not make landfall in Mexico. If Dora intensifies to a hurricane then it will be our first hurricane of the season. It could be an uncommonly chance that it will intensify into a major hurricane. :) 70.190.5.175 16:46, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dora has maintained its intensity per the NHC; however, organization continues to increase and a CDO is now evident. However, it is moving faster than expected and has a shorter timeframe to intensify. Although the NHC has lowered Dora's forecast peak back down to 65 knots (75 mph), I still think it is possible that the storm will intensify into a Category 2 or stronger hurricane if it organizes quickly enough. Only time will tell. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:49, June 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dora is on the doorstep of hurricane intensity. As a matter of fact, I can already detect an eye in the system. Despite Dvorak estimates of 55 knots (65 mph), the NHC has been generous and raised Dora's intensity to 60 knots (70 mph)/996 mbar (hPa). The storm still has, at most, a day to intensify in favorable temperature and shear conditions before SSTs decrease, and the NHC has also raised their forecast peak for Dora back to 75 knots (85 mph). If it weren't for the aforementioned impediment, I would have predicted that Dora would become a major hurricane. Instead, I forecast a Category 2 at most. Nevertheless, heavy swells are affecting southwestern Mexico as the storm parallels the coastline. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:48, June 26, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Dora
And here we have it: 70 kt, 989 mb. We may actually see a weak major coming from this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:07, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * The storm is going to be moving over colder waters from the California Current in a day or so, so Dora doesn't have much time to strengthen further. It might hit cat 2 but I'm personally not expecting a major. Then again, EPac storms have a tendency to overshoot the NHC's intensity forecasts due to their (often) small size compared to Atlantic hurricanes, so I could be wrong. Ryan1000 13:06, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dora's clearing out an eye on visible satellite imagery. Apparently its Dvorak T-number has gone up to 5.0 (source). ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:27, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dora is coming together really quickly. It has developed a significant amount of convection within the past several hours alone. I will not be surprised if the hurricane is already a Category 2 within the next hour. Nevertheless, even if Dora RIs to major hurricane intensity, it should not exceed Category 3 intensity. Also, another inch or two of precipitation should be received in Mexico. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:02, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dora is eerily similar to Dora of '11, with the way it is quickly strengthening and the path it is taking. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:07, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * And Dora intensifies again! An eye is now visible on satellite imagery, and the NHC has raised the hurricane's intensity to 75 knots (85 mph)/985 mbar (hPa). Unfortunately, Dora has started to reach cooler SSTs and cooler air, as the NHC has noted, and therefore may no longer significantly intensify. Despite favorable shear and other conditions, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening within the next 24 hours (although at a slower-than-normal pace). Nevertheless, precipitation should continue for Mexico until tonight. I still remember tracking Dora from 2011; this Dora is indeed quite similar in some aspects. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:10, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * For a storm that was only forecast to be a strong tropical storm, Dora has come so far. Unfortunately, the effects of colder water and stable air are now starting to settle in. Despite an intensity increase to 80 knots (90 mph)/981 mbar (hPa), Dora will be moving over SSTs of below 26°C and a more stable atmosphere as it moves WNW away from Mexico, where some slight impacts can still be anticipated. Luckily, low shear and proximity to warmer SSTs should moderate the hurricane's weakening rate, and the NHC forecasts Dora to remain tropical for approximately another 72 hours. Enjoy the hurricane while it lasts! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:36, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately for it, it couldn't intensify any further to a Category 2. The NHC forecasts the system to be a TS in Wednesday at midnight. Also, it's moving away Mexico and surprisingly, it didn't impact it. :) 70.190.5.175 23:28, June 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * And now, Dora is weakening. It is down to 65 kn (75 mph) and 990 mbar (hPa). Dora will be TS a few hours later and will be a remnant low on Thursday. :) 70.190.5.175 16:16, June 27, 2017 (UTC) Edit: (image)

Tropical Storm Dora (2nd time)
Down to a TS, 65 mph/995 mbars. Dora doesn't seem to have much longer to live. Ryan1000 20:44, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dora
And Dora is now a PTC. The low will continue until tomorrow. The damage is minimal, since it impacted Mexico and so far, no deaths. :) 70.190.5.175 16:19, June 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * I didn't really expect it to go as far as 90 mph. Sucks that it did not reach C2. :( Goodbye Dora! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:46, June 29, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:EPS model storm
EPS has been showing for a few days and ECMWF is starting to pick up on this, on a tropical cyclone in about 10 days behind 93E. Should stay southwest of Socorro Island but too soon to say for intensity. YE Pacific Hurricane  18:20, June 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now on the TWO at 30% for 5 days. Might become Eugene as it trails behind Dora. Ryan1000 04:31, June 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20% for 5 days. Ryan1000 16:20, June 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10%...maybe this won't develop. Ryan1000 00:32, June 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * The NHC notes how conditions have become less favorable. IMO, this still has a chance to become something but it will probably take more than 5 days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:49, June 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * I doubt this will develop because all of the models have dropped it, and the NHC took it off of the TWO. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:09, June 29, 2017 (UTC)