Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season/October

AOI: 600 Miles East of the Leeward Islands
At 10/20, and not expecting much from this due to the upper-level winds it has to face. All of our attention is on the above beast anyway. Nicole will probably come later. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:33, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invest'd and up to 20/30.If it gets lucky, it might become a brief TS, but it'll be ripped up by Matthew's outflow like Tony was by Sandy 4 years ago. Ryan1000 10:11, October 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is a fairly nice looking invest compared to some we saw in 2013-2014. This could possibly be Nicole in a few days.Two_atl_2d1.png T  G  21:56, October 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * I hope not, unless this can pull a surprise like Kate did last November. Nicole is one of the names I've been rooting for to go to a strong hurricane this season. I honestly wouldn't have minded in retrospect if something had snuck in to steal the name Matthew so that this weekend's monster would have been named Nicole instead :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:57, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * 30/30. This may become a TD in the coming days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:04, October 3, 2016 (UTC)

Now up to 40/40, per NHC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:19, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:23, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * up to 60%. Looks like this might hickjack the name Nicole before its done. Most women names have been fail this year with the exception of Hermine. Sad.Allanjeff 23:47, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * I don't want to see any name stealer/epic fail. Unfortunately, this is bound to happen. I'm begging you; stay as a TD or weaker! ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:56, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 70% with only an increase in organization and we have our 15 depression. Hoping it does not become a weak ts but we never know with this things. Matthew´s outflow might kill it in two days though. Allanjeff 05:34, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Winds now of 35knots if upgrade it will go straight to Nicole. AL, 98, 2016100406, 01, CARQ, 0, 232N, 603W, 35, 1010, DB, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 6, INVEST, S, Allanjeff 06:58, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Touching on Allan's point about the female names generally falling short this season; the Atlantic has been a bit sexist over the past few years. We've had six major hurricanes since Sandy, and all of them have had male names. :/ Variety is the spice of life; if the name Nicole has to go to a weakling (which I hope it doesn't; it's my second-favorite name on the list after Danielle, and the Atlantic has yet to have an 'N' storm surpass Category 1 intensity), then hopefully Paula can rise up to the occasion, as long as it does so when it's not a threat to land.
 * The Atlantic should take a page out of last year's EPAC book; that season was slightly skewed towards the female side, what with Patricia's record intensity and Jimena and Sandra coming in distant second and third places, but you also had Andres, Ignacio, and Olaf all reaching intensities of at least 125 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:13, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it is what it is, that was also the case two years ago in the EPac, when most of the season's major hurricanes were female names, though the Atlantic has had a tough time with that. Back to this, still at 70/70, and NHC notes that only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of TD 15, or Nicole. Ryan1000 10:51, October 4, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole

 * And this storm is the latest addition to the fishspinner storms list of 2016. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * I knew this had a chance to become Nicole, but it's not going to last long before Matthew's outflow rips it apart in a day or two. Ryan1000 15:24, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Well, try again in 2022, Nicole. You're going to soon be Matthew's lunch. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 23:50, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually its becoming better organized even with all that shear. Have an outside chance of becoming a cat 1 as most models make her stronger than she is. The HWRF and GFDL have her as a hurricane soon. Allanjeff 00:37, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * The 18z GFDL actually predicted Nicole would already be a hurricane by now. XD --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:53, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew's been shrinking a lot more than I thought it would with his recent landfall on the eastern tip of Cuba as a cat 4, it looks like Nicole won't be sheared apart by Matthew's outflow as quickly as I thought. If this manages to pull a Shary and become a hurricane despite that, then this won't be a fail, even better that it'll remain well clear of Bermuda if it does so. Ryan1000 03:27, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I never expected 60 mph from this thing! It is really trying hard and avoiding Matthew's outflow. Looks like Nicole didn't want to disappoint us this time. It could even have a shot at becoming a hurricane, which would be surprising considering the original forecast for unfavorable upper-level winds (aka Matthew's outflow I assume). However, in the midst of Matthew, not many people are probably caring about Nicole. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:57, October 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nicole is probably at 70mph now base on satellites and what other friends in meteorology have told me. She might become a hurricane at the 11pm advisory. Most models now agree on Nicole becoming a hurricane ranging from cat 1 to cat 2 intensity. I am rooting for a cat 2. She is taking advantage because Matthew shrink a lot from its passage of Cuba and because she is small and the outflow of Matthew cant reach her as of now. Models also agree that they might interact in the near future in a fujiwhara dance.Will be incredible to see. Allanjeff 22:38, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * NICOLE, AL, L,, , , , 15, 2016, HU, <- looks like we have Hurricane Nicole, the sixth of the season. 168.213.7.119 17:23, October 6, 2016 (UTC)




 * and the revised 12z best track gives it 70kt! user | Monseur Roussil 97  | user 17:39, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Nicole
who knew? heh Nicole might shear Matthew apart, jk.

user | Monseur Roussil 97  | user 17:48, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Dang it, I got edit-conflicted. But yes, we now have our sixth hurricane of the season. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 17:53, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yay! Nicole became a hurricane! Maybe it can squeeze out category 2! That would be amazing if it did. This season is getting better every day, and it looks like we have avoided a below average season this year. :D ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 19:14, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Not bad, not bad. It could pull off a little more intensification and may take a nice loop-de-loop path out to sea, and best of all, it's not hitting land, not even Bermuda. Ryan1000 19:45, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow, I did not expect this. Nicole is surprising me. It might even become a C2 at this pace. The forecast is showing weakening followed by restrengthening back to a hurricane. What I once predicted to be a name stealer has fought back! Maybe Nicole saw our posts about calling this a name stealer early on and later decided to impress us. :P Reminds me of storms like Michael from 2012...except this probably shouldn't become a major. Well, anything can happen but I would still be surprised to see a major. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:56, October 6, 2016 (UTC){| class="postContent" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:0px;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;margin-bottom:15px;border:0pxsolidtransparent;table-layout:auto;width:747px;color:rgb(30,32,35);font-family:verb,"HelveticaNeue",Helvetica,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;"


 * - style="box-sizing:border-box;"
 * id="comonly_56" style="box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;margin:0px;font-size:0.875rem;line-height:1.5;"|AL, 15, 2016100700,, BEST, 0, 274N, 652W, 90, 968, HU. Allanjeff 00:52, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * }


 * Hurricane Nicole continues to intensify & now has a pinhole eye surrounded by deeper convection. Could be undergoing RI despite shear. Making a run to become the third major of the season? If it does so, I believe it'll be the first time we saw simultaneous majors in the Atlantic since 2010. Owen 00:39, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Um - this is insane. Nicole is seriously mad at us from earlier (when I and others complained that it would be another name stealer). At this point, major status is getting likely. It might even make a run at C4 status. :O ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:53, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nicole is now a cat 2 with winds of 105 mph base on ATCF.Allanjeff 04:17, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Officially 90 kts/968 mbar per NHC. Unless I'm mistaken, Nicole is now the strongest Atlantic 'N' storm on record. Sorry for doubting you at first, Nicole - go, girl, go! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:38, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Nicole could reach major hurricane status, but I think it only has a small window to do so. Matthew is the king of the season, Nicole wants to be the queen it appears. From the NHC discussion: "This is the first time since September 10, 1964 that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly, those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions as Matthew and Nicole are now." Owen 02:46, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Really thought this would be a weak storm. Glad that I was wrong. Good thing this storm is expected to stay in the open Atlantic. Anyway, go Nicole! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:04, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole (2nd time)
Down to 70 mph. No longer a hurricane, but it was fun while it lasted. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, the shear must have demolished it last night. The latest advisory for Nicole is showing 60 mph/997 mbar. It is forecast to retain TS intensity for the next 5 days. I hope it can possibly restrengthen to hurricane strength. :) ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:13, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 60 mph. Nicole is now gradually weakening too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:58, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might curve back north in the long run, maybe even towards Bermuda, but it probably won't be coming back to its former strength. Ryan1000 06:25, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * 50 mph, 999 millibars. Not expected to dissipate yet, though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:42, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

Down to 40 mph. But Nicole is firing up some intense convection. Hope she restrengthens. elawson7

-__- ... 50 mph again. elawson7 17:09, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * While she isn't the prettiest-looking tropical storm at the moment, Nicole is giving the shear, which is expected to lessen again, a run for its money! Fingers crossed she finds a way to RI again and reaches major status. elawson7  01:13, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * All things considered I think Nicole is rebounding very nicely today. Matthew's slow demise is giving her room to breathe. I was wondering why, given the forecast track, Nicole's potential impact on Bermuda has not yet been brought up. The GFS and ECWMF models are in agreement Nicole will be impacting Bermuda as a hurricane on Thursday, quite possibly as a major hurricane. Looks like she's going to be another ACE maker for this season, looks like by the time it's all wrapped up we could quite possibly approach the 2011 and 2012 ACE totals assuming we have Otto in the future and Nicole does what these models are saying she will do. Owen 01:29, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * You're right. I've been so focused on Matthew's impacts that I've been ignoring Nicole's. Nicole is looking increasingly better, and appears poised for a dangerously close encounter with Bermuda. I take back what I said about her RI for a second time. This season has already been an impactful one, needless to say. For now, her circulation remains to the west of the deep convection, so shear isn't letting up just yet. elawson7  02:12, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Apparently some bands from Nicole are now causing flood warnings in Puerto Rico. --Whiplash (talk) 02:53, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * That's unfortunate. Nicole is stuck at 45 kt for now, but expected to restrengthen to a minimal hurricane just east of Bermuda later this week. They should prepare for worse, Nicole is massive.  Eric  11:36, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * 50 kt again...  Eric  15:06, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Most global models are showing Nicole as a major impacting Bermuda. Would be incredible to have two major hurricanes in October. I am not sure when it was the last time we had two in this month. Allanjeff 17:12, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * I hope it doesn't become too strong for Bermuda's sake. And it was 2011 with Ophelia and Rina.  Eric  17:25, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Woah, seems as if Nicole is getting that look again. Looks like she will be a hurricane once again soon, and if she does get retired if she's bad in Bermuda, and assuming Matthew and Earl get retired, we will be looking at our first season to retire more than two names in a season since 2008. Just something to note lol. Owen 19:02, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

55 kt. Forecasted to reach 80 kt, but that could, unfortunately for Bermuda, be conservative. I hope they are prepared...  Eric  21:07, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * It appears that the shear is ripping Nicole apart tonight, with her circulation exposed. Satellite estimates have dropped, and this may prevent it from becoming as strong as it was a few days ago. Good news for Bermuda.  Eric  01:24, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Interesting developments this morning. It appears the NHC track now takes Nicole straight over Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane. If she manages to RI like she did and the track stays the same, that is not good news for Bermuda. Owen 10:09, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Nicole might actually turn out to be worse for Bermuda than I expected, now it's expected to become a 100 mph storm moving directly over the island in 3 days. If the worst happens and Nicole RI's to a major instead, she might actually have a good chance at retirement down the road. Ryan1000 10:54, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Nicole has a very poor satellite appearance this morning. However, because her convection has increased somewhat, satellite estimates have done the same. I just hope Bermuda is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best, as Florida did with Matthew. Let's hope she doesn't directly pass over them... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  12:54, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

She's back down to 50 kt. Eric 14:54, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * GFS blows Nicole into a very large hurricane in about four days, with Bermuda being hit...looks like she wants to create a legacy of her own. Making up for what Karl should've been? Owen 17:30, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Conditions are going to become fairly favorable for Nicole to become a hurricane in the next day or two, including very warm SST's and rapidly decreasing shear, the only inhibiting factor is some dry air left behind in the wake of ex-Matthew, but if that doesn't get in the circulation then Nicole might become stronger than currently forecast due to its small size. Ryan1000 20:54, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hurricane watch issued for Bermuda. Eric  21:38, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Nicole (2nd time)
"...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA..." 65 kts, 982 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:50, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Will be very interesting to see what the intensity of Nicole is when it passes Bermuda. I believe Gonzalo was a Cat 2 like Nicole is expected to be. EDIT: She's also looking pretty good . Owen 18:48, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * 70 kt, 980 mbar. In all honesty, though, Nicole looks stronger than that. Forecasted to peak at 95 kt. Poor Bermuda... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  20:48, October 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nicole should become a major by tomorrow if she continues to intensify at the rate she is going. Poor Bermuda, its goingto be hit . Meanwhile the Gfs show Otto and Paula with Otto becoming a major and affecting the Caribbean. Allanjeff 22:22, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * I have a really bad feeling about Nicole. Idk what i think is, but she looks like she's on par to reach a peak of 105-115 kt. Imagine the worst case scenario of a Category 4 hurricane making landfall on Bermuda. Owen 22:58, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * 75 kt, 974 mbar. But, Nicole's eye is having trouble clearing out, perhaps due to dry air. Nonetheless, Bermuda should be ready. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  00:58, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * This thing may only be at 90 mph now, but Nicole looks amazing right now on sattelite imagery and if Nicole manages to become a major hurricane before hitting Bermuda on Thursday, she might actuallly have a good chance at being retired. Bermuda hasn't seen a major hurricane in 13 years, even longer when you consider it's October. Ryan1000 03:14, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it appears DVORAK estimates now place Nicole just below major or at major hurricanes status now. The new estimates say she is at 100 kt winds with a minimum pressure of 956. We will see what the NHC does, but it looks like she wants to become a major. Owen 05:27, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC says 100 mph and 970 mbars, but major hurricane status isn't out of the question before it hits Bermuda tomorrow and they should be prepared for whatever Nicole has to throw at them. Ryan1000 11:44, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * ADT estimates at 110 kt. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  16:03, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 110/962 now, making it the third-strongest storm of the season. Expected to strengthen slightly to 115 mph, which would make it the first time the Atlantic has had more than 2 majors since 2011. Wow, I'm loving this season... ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 21:25, October 12, 2016 (UTC)

Nicole reminds me of Alex in terms of structure and lack of winds corresponding to the structure. She is the strongest female hurricane of the season, so she gets to be the queen of the season. Pretty cool she will likely give this season another major, with the possibility that the GFS is picking up on a long-range major hurricane Otto far out. However, it's not good that she's headed straight toward Bermuda. Fabian was a 3 when he passed Bermuda, and Nicole should be around the same intensity, so prayers should be sent out for the island. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it unprecedented to see Bermuda get hurricane strikes three years in a row? Owen 21:29, October 12, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Nicole
100 kt, 956 mbar, Nicole is officially the third major hurricane of the season. But, this isn't necessarily a good thing...Bermuda is in for a lot. ): <font face="Verdena"> Eric  23:38, October 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * To be fair Owen, Joaquin of last year turned slightly north before hitting the island directly, but if you mean passing a certain distance from the island, there was also a 3-year streak from 1947-49 where Bermuda had some fairly close calls or hits. But nonetheless, if Nicole gets any stronger before hitting Bermuda, she might actually get pretty bad for them, maybe even comparable to Fabian. Ryan1000 23:48, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * In case anyone cares:
 * Nicole is the first Atlantic major hurricane to bear a female name since Sandy in 2012.
 * With the other two majors of this season bearing male names, 2016 boasts the first co-ed MH roster since 2012 had Michael and Sandy.
 * Nicole is the first Atlantic 'N' storm to reach major hurricane status (though not the first 14th storm of a season to do so; the 14th storms of 1932 and 1933 were both Category 5s). This also means that every letter on the AHS alphabet, except for 'T' and 'V', has been used for at least one major hurricane.
 * Nicole makes this October the first month to boast at least two major hurricanes since October 2011 had Ophelia and Rina.
 * This is the first time the Atlantic has had at least two consecutive storms attain MH status since 2010 had Igor, Julia, and Karl all in a row.
 * --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:55, October 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * On a side note, nobody really has payed any attention to the Eastern Pacific page... /: <font face="Verdena"> Eric  23:53, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * 14/6/3. Owen 00:54, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * So it appears with the dropsonde info that it looks like Nicole is a 130mph cat 4 with a 955mb pressure. However, I'm expecting the NHC to be a bit conservative and put Nicole as ~952-954mb with 105-110kt winds in the next update. Owen 01:28, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Officially a Category 4. Simply amazing. Owen 03:01, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I just hope Nicole isn't as bad for Bermuda as I fear it will be... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  03:07, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * On October 4 we all thought this would be an epic fail and a waste of a name. Fast-forward 8.5 days, it's raging at 115 kts and has relegated the almighty Gaston to the bronze for season intensity. Reminds me of Joaquin, which was initially forecast to sputter and wither away as a tropical depression without even earning itself a name &mdash; we all know how that forecast panned out. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:11, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Nicole amazed us all. Also a bit of some trivia: With Nicole now a Cat 4, this marks the first time two Cat 4/5s have existed in October in the Atlantic since reliable records began in 1851. Owen 03:23, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Barely a C4, 130 mph/950 mb. I have never expected Nicole to go this far. The hurricane gets an A+ in my book. Fantastic job, girl! :) I can't believe we saw the first time ever recorded that two C4+ storms have existed in October. However - Bermuda HAS to prepare. I am hoping it is no re-Fabian. After Matthew, we just cannot have another potentially devastating storm like this. D': ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:57, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Woah, I didn't expect this thing to get so powerful, I guess we shouldn't count our epic fails before they hatch, because Nicole overcame all odds and could be the worst hurricane to strike Bermuda since the Havana/Bermuda hurricane of 1926, if not their worst hurricane ever. Hopefully they've prepared, because this thing is going to absolutely rip the island later today. Ryan1000 07:32, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

5 AM advisory is out, the winds are still at 130 but the pressure rose slightly to 952, also it's picking up speed. Still, Bermuda is in for a massive slamming from this hurricane today. Ryan1000 08:43, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Poor Bermuda. If Nicole doesn't weaken at all, she's gonna be the only category 4 to strike Bermuda I believe. As of now, considering her intensity with Bermuda in the path, it's becoming quite likely Nicole will become a strong retirement candidate. Owen 10:00, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I had no clue that Nicole would become a 130-mph hurricane. I hope Bermuda is ready for their version of Matthew. T  G  11:19, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * 8 AM advisory nerfs Nicole slightly to 125 mph and 953 mbars, but that's still a very strong and dangerous hurricane. It may be making landfall on Bermuda as soon as the next advisory, the northern half of the hurricane is already hitting the island and bringing near hurricane-force winds. EDIT: the latest sattelite appearance looks very deceiving, it seems like Nicole will pass just east of the island but if you look closely it's taking a turn almost due north with the last motion, so the northern eyewall, which is a very strong part of the storm, could be a direct hit in a few hours. Ryan1000 12:02, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Nicole (3rd time)
Down to 95 kts/963 mbar as it pulls away from Bermuda. Hopefully the folks over there made it out alright. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:44, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

I can't believe Nicole became a major hurricane. Hopefully Bermuda got out okay. Leeboy100 Hope for Haiti. 21:07, October 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nicole weakened to about the strength of Fabian (120 mph) when it's northern eyewall hit Bermuda earlier today, but unfortunately for Bermuda that was the strongest part of the storm, and she still produced very strong winds that tore the roofs off of homes, washed out roads, knocked down trees and power lines, and blew boats ashore. While Bermuda is well-prepared for the effects of hurricanes, a major hurricane hitting Bermuda is still rare and can produce a lot of damage despite how prepared the island is. If total damages on Bermuda were bad enough, Nicole might actually be retired after this year. Ryan1000 22:13, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

Down to 75 kt, but her pressure remains quite low, 965 mbar. Very fortunately, damage on Bermuda was much less than they had feared, and there have been no reports of fatalities thus far. Nice try though, Nicole. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  14:25, October 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * The lack of deaths doesn't surprise me, but it wouldn't surprise me if damage on the island was fairly extensive, but it probably wasn't as bad as Fabian, since Fabian was much larger when it struck the island. Ryan1000 15:03, October 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole (3rd time)
60 kt, but expected to restrengthen yet again. Nicole really is overachieving. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  03:01, October 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * She definitely wants to persist and continue to defy all of the odds. Owen 04:03, October 15, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Nicole (4th time)
Oh. She did it again. Per 11AM NHC update, Nicole has regained hurricane status. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:19, October 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * I really can't believe this. She has really defied all odds and surprised us all. This should be Nicole's last stint as a hurricane though. So we began with a forecast of an epic fail in the beginning and now we have a relatively long-lived hurricane that peaked as a Category 4. This pulled off a Joaquin, if you ask me. It looks like Bermuda got off rather easy; no deaths so far! :) Oh, and current intensity is set at 85 mph/960 mb. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:49, October 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Man, this thing has gotten absolutely massive. As of the 5pm forecast/advisory, Nicole's TS-force winds extended 360 nm to the northwest, and 300 nm to the southeast, for a total TS-force wind diameter of 660 nautical miles, which is the equivalent of 759 miles across! Where does that rank Nicole amongst the largest Atlantic hurricanes? I can't imagine Nicole is far outside the top 10. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:20, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11pm advisory from 5 and a half hours ago expanded the 34-kt wind field to 420 nm (483 miles) to the northwest, 300 nm (345 miles) to the southwest, 330 nm (379.5 miles) to the southeast, and 360 nm (414 miles) to the northeast... the widest diameter (NW-to-SE) is 750 nm, or 862.5 miles. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 08:35, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 958 mbars. Still at 85 mph though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:14, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * With regards to the gale diameter, that forecast advisory showing the 34-kt wind field diameter of 750 nm (865 mi, 1390 km) ties with Hurricane Olga of 2001 as the third largest Atlantic hurricane on record. The most recent advisory bumped both intensity and the gale diameter down a bit though, at 70 kt and 710 nm respectively. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:19, October 17, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole (4th time)
And she finally weakens to a tropical storm. Expected to be post-tropical in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:05, October 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * It looks like Nicole's longetivity now ties it with Igor of 2010 to become the third-longest lived hurricane of the 2010s, behind Philippe of 2011 and Nadine of 2012. She really hasn't wanted to go away. Owen 04:11, October 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * At this point, Nicole has brought the Atlantic ACE within 1 unit of EPac ACE (discounting the CPac). Thumbs up to this Atlantic season (but not including Matthew's destruction). ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:28, October 18, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole
The most resilient Atlantic TC of 2016 is finally shedding its tropical characteristics. This has surpassed Alex and Gaston as my favorite storm of the season, the effects on Bermuda (which were fortunately less severe than anticipated) notwithstanding. Defied the odds by reaching Category 2 strength when it was expected to remain at or below 45 kts, stuck it out through a rough patch and then came roaring back to life, became the strongest Atlantic 'N' storm by a wide margin (Category 4 @ 115 kts/950 mbar, previous record being Category 1 Nadine @ 80 kts/978 mbar) while boasting a satellite appearance that would make Matthew jealous, and then near the end of its tropical life, it ballooned into one of the largest Atlantic hurricanes on record. The downside to Nicole is the impacts on Bermuda, but even then, despite hitting them as a Category 3, Nicole was less destructive than feared and the Bermudians made it out A-OK. Hats off to you, Nicole, you were a fantastic storm to track! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:30, October 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Gotta say, I'm impressed Nicole managed to hang on this long. She managed to outlive her predecessor Matthew by 2 days and became one of the largest hurricanes on record in the open North Atlantic, fortunately while away from land. Better yet, it didn't hit Bermuda as hard as it was initially feared. Ryan1000 13:06, October 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Bermuda's minimal damage aside, Nicole was awesome. Miss her already. :-( <font face="Verdena"> Eric  22:41, October 18, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:East of Lessers
A new AOI has popped up east of the Lesser Antilles and is at 10/20. It could become Otto down the road, but not until it reaches the westernmost or northwestern edge of the Caribbean, because Matthew churned up a lot of cold water in the central Caribbean which this is going to be moving over. Ryan1000 18:24, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. This AOI will bring rain to the Lessers though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:47, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * 0/0. This may take a long time to develop, if it does so at all. Ryan1000 19:47, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * This just won't develop. Everyone is focusing much more on Matthew and to a lesser extent, Nicole. Otto is going to take a while to come, IMO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:59, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * FTR, this wasted AOI has poofed. Otto must come later. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:15, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * Good Otto is my favorite name on this list I would like to to be a half-memorable storm. It also will likely be the final storm of this season. --Whiplash (talk) 22:36, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

GFS SW Caribbean system
For the past few runs now, the GFS has been picking up on another powerful hurricane (Otto) in the Caribbean, this time in the warm waters of the central Caribbean. I've also seen far out runs taking this into Florida, more specifically Tampa Bay, as a major hurricane in a doomsday pre-Halloween scenario. Far out, but the thought of that happening in my area is horrifying. Plus, you don't even know what this thing can get to in the Caribbean seeing what Matthew became. This system will need more monitoring, I believe it's a wave that will be moving into the Caribbean soon. Owen 19:24, October 11, 2016 (UTC)

Oh no, not another one...Matthew was enough. I hope possible Otto goes out to sea... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  20:56, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Imagine 2 Category 5's in a season for the first time since 2007. That would help generate some serious ACE totals. Take a look here, looks a lot like a Wilma 2.0. Owen 00:26, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow...and in October too? That would be insane. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  00:55, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Forecasts 264 or more hours out are too far ahead to really say for certain, but the models were scary with Matthew before it formed and they were proven right, hopefully that's not the case this time too. The latest run of the GFS develops this in the westernmost Caribbean where disasterous late-season storms like Mitch and Wilma formed, not in the central Caribbean where Matthew peaked. Ryan1000 03:14, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * This thing has been going on and off the GFS for the past few days. There again it's at around 300 hours so it's not unexpected. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:16, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * With the AOI in the Bahamas is somehow expected to become Otto, will this future system be Paula? Or will this completely flop instead? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:14, October 17, 2016 (UTC)

Flop. Just the GFS raving at 300+ hours as usual. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:29, October 18, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Over the Bahamas
New AOI at 10/20 located over the Bahamas. Conditions are unfavorable, but the GFS, EURO and CMC all seem to show this system developing into a short-lived Tropical Storm Otto. It will probably be a weak name-waster, but at this point in the season, we should be glad to have any development. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 16:07, October 16, 2016 (UTC)

Now at 20% interesting some models are developing a wave in the MDR. They might drop it but interesting to see a strong wave at this time of year. It might develop in the SW Caribbean and become Paula if the AOI above develops into Otto. Allanjeff 18:38, October 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 20/40 now, NHC said that it could develop into a SUBTROPICAL cyclone. If that happens, it will continue the trend of Ottos forming as subtropical. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 23:55, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * This has weak support from GFS, but strong support from ECMWF and CMC. I'll opt to give this a high chance of becoming Otto over the next 5-7 days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:24, October 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 20/50, I suspect this may be weak a short lived, asymmetric subtropical storm Otto. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 15:43, October 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * At this point, I actually hope this forms. I just want to see how many storms the Atlantic can squeeze in right now. T  G  17:36, October 17, 2016 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Welcome back 99L! Hopefully you aren't as frustrating as last time. Anyway, up to 20/60. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 18:01, October 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * It looks like Otto may be on the way. I see a strong tropical storm or a minimal hurricane coming out of this, it definitely would be nice to see another hurricane to add onto our seasonal total. Owen 04:16, October 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * 40/70, and thus well on the way to Otto. A hurricane may be pushing it, but not totally impossible looking at what Nicole did about 10 days earlier. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:30, October 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * I love how Otto always starts subtropical. Pretty cool. And another neat edition to the 2016 Atlantic season. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  22:43, October 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * 60/80. Honestly, judging by the looks of this system right now, I think these chances are too high. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 15:00, October 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * And it is forecast to merge with a cold front this weekend, according to the TWO. The chances really seem too high. I would give something like "50/50". Anyway, this has a shot at Otto. It might only be a brief subtropical storm though, but it might become tropical. I do not think this will become a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:11, October 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Its becoming better organized probably will become Otto if the NHC finds a winds of ts intensity. The GFS is showing a storm in the EAtlantic and one in the SW Caribbean. The season is not done imo. Btw this will probably peak at weak ts at most. Allanjeff 17:36, October 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now this actually does have a "50/50" chance. The NHC must have listened to me, lol. :P Anyway, I am not expecting Otto from 99L anymore, as it has a very small window before merging with that cold front Friday night. Allan, I am anticipating to see Otto or even Paula before the season comes to a close. I believe the final storm will be Paula or if we get either a more active than usual ending or a post-season storm, Richard. If Otto comes here it will be nothing more than a pathetic name-stealing weak subtropical TS that lasts for less than a day. Otto, you deserve to be given to something better! Please! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:50, October 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 40/40. Guess this invest wants to follow the heels of its predecessor Hermine (also designated 99L). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:23, October 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20. Doesn't look like we are getting Otto from this system, sadly. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 02:28, October 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm actually glad it did not develop, since otherwise it would be an epic name stealer. A developed 99L would have probably peaked at 45-50 mph at best and last for a short span of time. It's getting less likely that we will see Paula this year, but I still am expecting to see Otto form by year's end. And in reply to Anonymous 2.0, this 99L has never developed during its lifespan, unlike the previous incarnation. So it is not exactly following on the heels of Hermine. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:47, October 22, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave (Central Atlantic)
Although this system has not been included in the TWO, I think it has a good chance of development. Many models develop it, the GFS in particular has been extremely consistent with its development. This could become one of the latest Cape Verde storms on record, and it could even cross into November if it develops. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 02:28, October 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Interesting. This could end up as one of the latest Cape Verde-type storms ever recorded. Our potential Otto seems to be around the corner with this wave, and I am expecting Otto to be the final storm of the season (unless we get a more active than usual ending of the season and post-season, in which case we could go as far as Richard). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:50, October 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * This storm was dropped recently by the GFS. I'm thinking that Nicole might've been our final storm of the season. It does not look like that we're gonna see any storms for a long while. T  G  22:33, October 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * I hope that isn't the case, and we can squeeze in an Otto or maybe even a Paula by November 30 (or if a post-season storm is necessary, December 31). But, the season is coming to a close and not much is going to happen from here on out. I still wouldn't rule out Otto from happening though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  01:52, October 27, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Western Caribbean
This area of invest is at near 0% for 2 and 5 days due to strong upper-level winds, but it's not expected to move very much over the next few days, and if it manages to resist the shear long enough, it might become something down the road. GFS also shows a storm developing north of PR in about a week and heading out to sea, so it's still possible we might get to Otto or Paula before the season is over. Ryan1000 14:25, October 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * This storm has been off of the TWO for a while, but now there is a major hurricane developing in the Caribbean around November 15 on the GFS. T  G  14:52, October 31, 2016 (UTC)