Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season/October

AOI: North of Puerto Rico
The first of two new AOIs that have appeared on the latest outlook. Currently 10/20 and expected to move northeastward. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:35, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I can't help but wonder whether this AOI is associated with the remnants of Karen 🤔 --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:54, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, the NHC doesn't explicitly mention that it's associated with Karen's remnants, but I can imagine it's at least partially associated. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:20, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0% for 2 and 5 days. Development no longer anticipated. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:53, October 2, 2019 (UTC)

Off the TWO. -- Java Hurricane  13:01, October 2, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Northwestern Caribbean
The second of two new AOIs. Currently 10/10 on the outlook. We probably won't see much from these systems. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:35, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/20 now. Beatissima (talk) 01:12, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. Development seems unlikely due to upper-level winds so unfortunately Melissa looks like she'll have to wait. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:30, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/20, still doubting any development. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:07, October 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back down to 0/10 as it moves across the tip of the Yucatan and into the Gulf of Mexico. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:53, October 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to near 0% for 2 and 5 days, yeah this won't be anything at all. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:03, October 4, 2019 (UTC)

Off the TWO. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:08, October 5, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Central North Atlantic
Popped up on the 5-day TWO at 0/20 and could become subtropical. Now THIS might be Melissa (hopefully), but it seems like it will continue the streak of failing female names unless it pulls a Leslie '18 or Ophelia '17. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:03, October 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:50, October 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50, could very well become Melissa. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:12, October 5, 2019 (UTC)

I hope not...I'd rather Melissa not go to a third epic fail this year, like her previous two incarnations did in 2013 and 2007. If it does get Melissa, at least become something strong. Ryan1000 20:09, October 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Same here, but I want the "M" curse to end this year, so I am a bit conflicted right now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:26, October 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't quite call the 2013 Melissa an epic fail - it reached 55 kts/980 mbar and I feel like that's a respectable intensity, even if it did fall short of hurricane status. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:27, October 6, 2019 (UTC)

Melissa '13 was kinda like Gabrielle this season tbh. Anyway, this is now on the 2-day TWO, 10/50 as of this writing. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:31, October 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Melissa '13 was still rather underwhelming regardless. If this could somehow pull off hurricane intensity in the far north Atlantic I'd be happy with that, at least. 20/50 now. Ryan1000 19:32, October 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately the TWO now mentions that upper-level winds will become unfavorable by mid-week. Might only be a fail name-stealer at the very most. 🙁 ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:51, October 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 30/50. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:57, October 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now 40/50. Peak as a TD pls... ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:44, October 7, 2019 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested and 50/50. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:51, October 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 40/40. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:05, October 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down further to 20/20, it looks like with the flop of this and the below systems, Melissa will have to wait. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:19, October 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10, should be out soon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:28, October 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:07, October 10, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near the U.S. East Coast
Another one has appeared on the 5-day outlook east of the coast, currently 0/20 and could also become subtropical. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:12, October 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Apparently subtropical cyclone season has returned. Beatissima (talk) 19:07, October 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yep, I guess the subtropics have become more favorable for development. Now 0/30. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:52, October 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/30. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:51, October 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/20. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 12:08, October 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back up to 20/20, highly doubt this will become Melissa for now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:36, October 10, 2019 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
You might have spoken too soon Steve, this is now invested as 93L and jumped all the way to 60/60. NHC says they might issue advisories on Subtropical Storm Melissa later this morning before upper level winds become unfavorable. Ryan1000 13:47, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Melissa
Welp. Hello Melissa. 55 kts/995 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * This seriously became subtropical in the face of upper-level winds?! That's probably one of the strongest intensities I've seen for a storm's first/initial advisory. Reminds me so much of the 1991 Perfect Storm except it probably won't become fully tropical nor strengthen to hurricane intensity. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:29, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow. Didn't expect this to become this strong. Hopefully it becomes a hurricane or something significant but not destructive. Wait, is Melissa already stronger than Gabrielle? Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 16:45, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unexpected formation for me. I last checked it yesterday and it’s at 20/20, and I woke up to see a 65 mph SS Melissa. Just wow.  Sandy 156   :)  16:54, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * And also, say goodbye to the M curse because this ain’t becoming a C5 and destructive.  Sandy 156   :)  17:00, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

Yeah the past 3 seasons had their "M" storm become a strong and destructive cat 5 (Matthew, Maria, and Michael), so the "M" curse is over for now, though Melissa could still deliver some high surf and winds to parts of the northeast even if it won't make landfall. Ryan1000 17:47, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

It was supposed to start raining here on Wednesday due to the nor’ea, but didn’t rain a drop till today when it transitioned. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:20, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60 mph/997 mb per latest update. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:58, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Funny how it appears that Melissa peaked on its first advisory and will spend the rest of its life weakening. I don't think I remember any other named storm as strong as Melissa peaking at its first advisory. And I'd like to mention that Melissa and Gabrielle have the same exact peak intensity so far (65 mph/995 mbar) and we still have yet to see a female hurricane considering that Melissa is not expected to become one. The sexist female curse strikes again... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:24, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

What a surprise! She looks gorgeous via GOES-East right now. Beatissima (talk) 22:26, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Melissa has been looking nice on satellite. Down to 50 mph (45 knots)/997 mbar according to the latest advisory and should become a remnant low by tomorrow night. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:02, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Adv. 5: same windspeed, pressure up to 998 mbar. It has developed some deeper convection so I can imagine it becoming fully tropical before dissipation. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:11, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

If I'm not mistaken, we are now in our fourth consecutive year of above-average tropical cyclone activity, making this the longest stretch since reliable records began. Beatissima (talk) 18:56, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Tidbits now designating Melissa as a TS, still no confirmation from NHC though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:06, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Melissa
And NHC confirms it. 50 mph, 999 mb. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:46, October 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * Still heading OTS, and conditions will deteriorate from here on out, so Melissa probably won't get much stronger before dissipating soon. Also, regarding the number of consecutive active hurricane seasons, one could make a case for 1998-2001 also being 4 consecutive active Atlantic seasons; though 1999 only had 12 named storms, it had a record 5 category 4 hurricanes and 176.5275 ACE units, the 13th highest on record, or an ACE per storm of 14.75. But then again, 2001's ACE was more near-normal than above normal, even though it was a 15-storm season. Ryan1000 21:25, October 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 45 mph/1001 mbar and expected to become a remnant low by tomorrow morning. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:12, October 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down further to 40 mph/1003 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:09, October 14, 2019 (UTC)


 * Pressure rose by one millibar. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 12:32, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Melissa
It has died. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:13, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * The streak of category 5 M’s has ended. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 17:12, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Florida
Another one at 10/10 but expected to merge with the above system by Wednesday. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:51, October 8, 2019 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
This is quickly organizing... Up to 40/40 and invested. We might see a short-lived tropical storm from this. Please don't steal Melissa! I was really hoping we finally get a hurricane out of a female name for once. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:08, October 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 12:07, October 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down further to 10/10. And people on Storm2k mentioned how well-organized this looked yesterday when it got that 40/40. This pic looks better than many other classified tropical cyclones. It's possible this might have (briefly) been a TC. Post-analysis anyone? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:19, October 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Merging with the other system, development not expected anymore. Now near 0% for both 2 and 5 days. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:07, October 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on the TWO. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:36, October 10, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Western Caribbean Sea
Popped up on the outlook at 0/20. Hopefully this will become Melissa! ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  02:54, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually after the other system near the east coast's recent stunt, this should be Nestor instead or even Olga if the 0/30 system near the Cape Verdes develops first. Looks like land interaction might inhibit development though. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:46, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/20, although land interaction makes it less likely this will develop. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:56, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 10/20. Expected to enter a more conducive environment in the BoC. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 01:10, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back to 0/20, it doesn't look like it will become much before it enters the Bay of Campeche. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:58, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/30, looks like it's close enough to interact with the developing EPac disturbance south of Central America. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:29, October 15, 2019 (UTC)

Now 10/40, looks like we might see Nestor (or Olga if TD 15 can still become named) in the Gulf of Mexico. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:05, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 20/40, expected to move into the Bay of Campeche and turn northward by tomorrow night. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:23, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/50, they actually mention the possibility that it could form subtropical instead of fully tropical. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:12, October 16, 2019 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Invested and up to 50/50. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 19:26, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast to move northeastward and threaten the northeastern Gulf Coast. Might potentially be one to watch out for. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:59, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60/60 now. Beatissima (talk) 00:57, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/70. I'm expecting formation sometime on Thursday (afternoon or evening), or overnight Thursday-Friday at latest. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:36, October 17, 2019 (UTC)

80/80. Should become Nestor by tonight or tomorrow. Ryan1000 14:03, October 17, 2019 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen
PTC'd with tropical storm warnings issued in the Florida panhandle, coastal Alabama and the Louisiana delta. Formation chances now 90/90, expected to become Nestor later today. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:11, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still a PTC but Sixteen now has TS-force winds. 40 mph, 1005 mb per latest advisory. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:46, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * It's still not Nestor but the pressure has decreased to 1004 mbar (winds still the same). Hopefully it becomes Nestor by tomorrow morning. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:33, October 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still not Nestor but PTC 16 is now packing winds of 60 mph and has a pressure of 1001 mb. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:52, October 18, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nestor
It's finally been named. Still 60 mph/1001 mbar as of the latest intermediate advisory. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:48, October 18, 2019 (UTC)


 * Looks like Nestor will be hitting the same part of the Panhandle that Michael did last year, though it won't get anywhere near as strong. Also, this is also the first time the name was used in the Atlantic, although the 2013 season would've had Nestor if that year's post-season December storm was discovered operationally, but it wasn't. Nestor was also used for an annular cat 5 super typhoon in June of the 1997 season. Ryan1000 18:08, October 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * There's a nonzero chance it will become a C1 hurricane before landfall. Beatissima (talk) 02:54, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 60 mph/996 mbars. To be honest it looks highly unlikely to become a hurricane, but I guess still nonzero if it blows up overnight. It looks like rain is already spreading throughout much of Florida at the moment. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:19, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

The convection is displaced too far east from Nestor's circulation for him to become a hurricane, he might get up to 70 mph but I'd be surprised if Nestor manages to muscle up to 75. And even if that somehow happens, the main threat is going to be heavy rain regardless. Ryan1000 03:41, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nestor
Only peaked at 60 mph, still hasn't made landfall yet.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  15:12, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Reminds me a little of Karen in 2013 except this one isn't as much of a fail and looks to be pretty impacting. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:41, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Feels to me like a cross between Karen '13, Ida '09, and Josephine '96 - I believe Nestor is the first storm since Ida to complete extratropical transition over the Gulf. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:09, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
Another one at 0/20. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:19, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * This might develop unusually east for the time of year. I don't expect anything more than a weakling out of this. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:32, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

0/30. Might have a chance to become a short-lived Nestor, and would make this year the second in a row to have it's "N" storm in the deep tropical Atlantic in October, after Nadine also did so last year. Ryan1000 17:48, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/40. If this becomes Nestor it could be one of the easternmost storms ever for so late in the year. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:47, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 20/40. It's only got until midweek to develop though. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:57, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
30/50. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 12:04, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/70, could very well be Nestor and be one of the easternmost October storms I've ever seen. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:24, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 60/70. Looks likely to become a TD or even Nestor, but it'll only be a weakling if it does so, as upper-level winds will strike by the middle of the week. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:08, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 70/70 as of the latest outlook. Maybe a depression will arrive tomorrow or Tuesday at the latest. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:59, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

It had better get going fast if it wants to get to Nestor, because upper level winds will become unfavorable for development by Wednesday night or so. Ryan1000 11:39, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

80/80. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 12:30, October 14, 2019 (UTC)


 * We could be getting Nestor any time now...Ryan1000 13:44, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

90/90. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 18:24, October 14, 2019 (UTC)


 * I expect a TD by the end of the day, hopefully it doesn't do what 96E in the EPac did and completely bust from here on out. But if this becomes Nestor, it'll probably only be an epic fail TS with one record to its name (likely the easternmost storm for so late in the year). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:40, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen
Here it is. Expected to become Nestor.Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:50, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * According to Philip Klotzbach, at 20.2°W, this is the easternmost formation ever for so late in the year. This breaks the old record of 26°W set in 1978. It's just insane how it formed near the Cape Verdes at a time when formations there are supposed to be almost climatologically impossible. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:50, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

Good thing it's not going to last very long after Cape Verde, since shear won't be very favorable after Wednesday. Could still cause some flooding to the islands though, hopefully nothing bad though since they're accustomed to most weak TS's. Ryan1000 22:54, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 35 mph/1006 mbar as of the latest advisory. It actually lost some organization since it was first classified. At this rate, there's a chance it might not even make it to "Nestor", but we'll see. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:27, October 15, 2019 (UTC)

No longer forecast to become Nestor. :( I'd actually like it to steal Nestor so at least one of the guys could suck this year, as every previous male storm was strong or somewhat notable (in the case of Fernand). Ryan1000 16:26, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 35 mph but the pressure has increased to 1007 mbar. I doubt this will become Nestor now but it's currently passing over the Cape Verde islands where they might feel a bit of impacts. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:39, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pressure up to 1009 mbar, I think it's safe to say this won't become Nestor before it dissipates. It'll likely become a remnant low tomorrow morning. However the discussion notes that ECMWF and some ensemble members predict it could regenerate later this week so we might have to watch for that. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:22, October 16, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Fifteen
Degenerated into a trough. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:09, October 16, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Central Atlantic Tropical Wave
New one on the TWO at 10/20, only has until around midweek to become anything though before upper-level winds become hostile. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:24, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yes, the winds will be "quite hostile." Ȝeſtikl (talk) 01:09, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, I honestly don't expect much. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:00, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Upped to 20/20. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 18:25, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * I don't expect anything more than a tropical depression, probably will bust tbh. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:37, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dropped to 10/10. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:28, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%, upper-level winds are becoming too unfavorable. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:05, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:24, October 16, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Yucatan Peninsula
A new AOI, associated with a tropical wave, is at 0/20. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:39, October 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/30. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 19:46, October 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/30, might actually have a slight chance to steal "Olga" before merging with a cold front. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:24, October 24, 2019 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
This has been rapidly organizing in the Bay of Campeche overnight and through the morning, and is now up to 60/60. A brief TD (hopefully not a name-stealer) is possible. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:56, October 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * I really hope this doesn't steal Olga...we've had one fefail too many this year. Ryan1000 19:03, October 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * 70/70. Only expected to become a short-lived depression. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:34, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seventeen
Nobody has updated this yet? Upgraded to a TD. It better not steal the name "Olga" somehow before it merges with the cold front... BTW, I've made a blog post that calls attention to this wiki's general deadness at this link, if you guys want to see it. It seems like forum activity has really started to decline since the good ol' days. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:14, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olga
Now named. 40 mph, 998 millibars. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:04, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is probably one of the worst name-stealers I've ever seen... it's expected to become post-tropical in a few hours. Really mother nature, another name hijacked in this manner?! 😑 With the formations of Olga and Pablo on the same day, this is the most active October since 2012, even if all the storms so far have remained below hurricane intensity. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:38, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, I'm glad we might finally get to Rebekah this year. :)  Beatissima (talk) 21:52, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Oh wow. This became Olga. And another one near the Azores became Pablo. I didn't expect this at all. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:27, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olga
Well, that was a fail. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:53, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * NHC still issuing advisories though... 50 mph, 999 mb as of the latest advisory, but already post-tropical. Kinda reminiscent of Nestor. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 03:25, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Peak efficient name stealing right here.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:29, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, what an epic fail. This continues the parade of pathetic, extremely short-lived 40 mph name-stealers this year such as Imelda (might be debatable due to impacts), Andrea, Priscilla, and Gil. And Olga might be even worse because only like 2 advisories were issued on it while tropical (not counting post-tropical portion). Sad! ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:28, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * I'm so mad that this system became the shortest-lived storm I've ever seen, even shorter than Philippe. Olga didn't deserved to get named to this storm in my opinion.  Sandy 156   :)  05:31, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * I wouldn’t be surprised if Olga beat Imelda for the lowest ACE produced on record. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:59, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * No, but Olga did tie Imelda. Since ACE is not calculated for tropical depressions, then the lowest possible ACE value at any given synoptic point (or 6-hour interval) in a tropical cyclone's lifetime is 0.1225, for a minimal 35-kt tropical storm; therefore, the lowest possible overall ACE value for any given tropical cyclone is also 0.1225, assuming that the tropical cyclone peaked at 35 kts and only spent one synoptic point (or 6 hours) at peak intensity. Therefore, beating Imelda — which had a lifetime ACE value of 0.1225 — is not possible, but tying Imelda is, and that is what Olga... er... "accomplished," for lack of a better word. Though I must admit, I'm curious to see whether the respective TCRs for Imelda and Olga will bring any changes to their ACE values (such as if they're found to have been tropical storms for slightly longer, or if their intensities are nudged upward). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:16, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * All this being said, Olga was (at least operationally) a tropical cyclone for only 12 hours, which ties Tropical Depression Five of 2010 as the shortest-lived tropical cyclone I'm aware of. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:22, October 26, 2019 (UTC)

Also, as one more side note, since Olga only peaked as a 40 mph TS, pending reanalysis, 2019 now has five 40 mph tropical storms in the season, which, as I mentioned before with Imelda, beats the previous tie of four in 1933 and 1936 for the most 40 mph tropical storms in one season. We still have all of November left, so we might be able to go so far as to tie 19 storms again, though I'd rather see us end at Sebastien or run the table than add a sixth Atlantic season to the 19 named storm tie (1887, 1995, and 2010-12 currently have that distinction). Ryan1000 21:19, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * This year had so many pathetic storms that it broke a record. Lol. But at least it is balanced out by the few hurricanes and two Category 5s we've had this year. If this record happened in 2013 it would truly cement its position as the worst year ever for TC tracking, as if that year couldn't even get any worse. This year kinda reminds me of 2007 in a way, although at least we saw Humberto and Jerry peak beyond C1. Unless this year pulls a 2005 November-December, I highly doubt we'll go all the way to Tanya and get a 19-storm plus season. Running the table is out of the question as the late-season hyperactivity needed to get there would be climatologically nigh-on impossible. I think we'll get one more storm to appease Beatissima and your mother although this season could also end early like last year. Sebastien is possible at this rate, but I believe Tanya or beyond is overdoing it. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:29, October 26, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near the Azores
20/20. Might have a chance to become subtropical, but I don't think it will for now. Ryan1000 13:05, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
It's getting much better organized... This looks likely to become "Olga" before all is said and done. Up to 50/50 in a special update. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:16, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 80/80, won't be surprised if it's Olga at the 5 PM EDT update. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:47, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Pablo
TD-17 jacked the name Olga, so 98L will have to settle with Pablo instead. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:06, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * I'm pretty surprised that we've gotten this far down the naming list. My forecast back in August predicted only a 16% chance we would get down to here. And with the season still having a month (or two if counting post-season) left, Rebekah is actually very possible now. Intensity is currently 45 mph/990 mbar, a very low pressure for a 45 mph storm. Some intensification looks possible, but considering this is a pretty small storm that has exploded from being completely non-tropical to being named in the span of just 12 hours, I might not be surprised to see a brief hurricane from this. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:45, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Huh, didn't expect this to become Pablo so fast, even moreso that it didn't become subtropical but instead jumped to being a tiny, but fully tropical, storm. It might hit Sao Miguel Island in the Azores, but it'll probably just be a passing rainshower for them, certainly nothing like Lorenzo earlier this year. Ryan1000 23:17, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow. No words. No thoughts, head empty. When I last checked this forum (and NHC's page too), this was nothing. Now this is a full-fledged tropical storm. Hopefully Pablo won't be a bad extratropical system in the long run though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:29, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 kts/989 mbar. Part of me is actually kinda glad that 17L stole Olga and this became Pablo — maybe we'll finally see Rebekah this season? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:23, October 26, 2019 (UTC)

On top of being Beatissima's name, a similar spelling, Rebecca, is my mom's name, so I'd really like to see Rebekah used this year, though hopefully doing better than the last few storms we've had. Ryan1000 21:22, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Mine is also spelled "Rebecca", but I'll go with "Rebekah", since that's what we've got on the modern lists. :) "Rebecca" was on the old EPac lists, and "Becky" was on the old Atlantic lists. One of the latter became a Cat 3 in 1974. Beatissima (talk) 03:08, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * It would be such a satisfying capstone for this season for Rebekah to finally give us a lady hurricane, as long as it isn't destructive or deadly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:05, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * I agree, hopefully Rebekah will finally get the girls a hurricane, although it might be a bit of a long shot as November hurricanes aren't supposed to be that common. I'd have to wait until we see a hyperactive List III season to see my mom's name, as her name "Tammy" will next be used in 2023. 2005 of course managed to reach that name, but 2011 and 2017 were so close. 🙁 I also hope that one day "Sean" is retired in that list and replaced by "Steven" so me and my mom would be back-to-back. That would be amazing. Now back to reporting Pablo's intensity...60 mph/987 mbar at the moment, might even have a chance to strengthen a bit more before weakening begins. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:39, October 26, 2019 (UTC)

Well, to be fair, 2011 would've had Tammy, but one of the tropical storms that year (the one at the start of September) wasn't discovered until reanalysis, kinda like how 2013 would've had Nestor if that season's December storm was discovered operationally. Ryan1000 23:57, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pablo is cute as a button! I hope his impacts in the Azores are minimal. Beatissima (talk) 03:16, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * It has intensified further to 65 mph/985 mbar. Small cute storms like Pablo can be subject to pretty rapid fluctuations, so maybe a brief hurricane still isn't out of the question for overnight into the morning before weakening starts. And it's always been quite frustrating that had the early September storm in 2011 been declared operationally, I would've seen my mom's name used...but of course, it HAD to evade detection until post-analysis. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:45, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pablo seems to be making a run for hurricane intensity. An eye appears to be visible in the last few IR frames, and ATCF has upped it to 70 mph. We’ll have to wait and see if the NHC follows suit and upgrades it to 70 at the 5 AM EDT advisory. Leeboy100 Hello! 08:04, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yep, NHC confirms. 70 mph, 983 millibars. I’d also like to point out that Pablo is moving incredibly fast. Forward speed is 40 MPH! Leeboy100 Hello! 08:41, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

Lowkey hoping that Pablo somehow manages to reach hurricane status, since he is expected to re-curve towards the open Atlantic, but I think he has already peaked at this point. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 12:08, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Pablo
Pablo is now a confirmed hurricane. 75/983. PRISM55 - ME LLAMO JEFF 15:07, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

Well Jas, your wish came true. This thing has breached hurricane status on even colder waters than Epsilon, and the NHC notes that this may even be conservative. Misogyny continues to reign supreme this season, here's hoping that Rebekah can break this trend and win big for the ladies. Send Help Please (talk) 15:10, October 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * I had a feeling this would happen and called it last night. 🙂 This should be at or near its peak intensity though, making it only a brief minimal hurricane like Barry unless it somehow intensifies further. This is the most misogynist season I've ever seen lol. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:20, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently Pablo reached hurricane intensity farther northeast than any other Atlantic hurricane on record, surpassing Vince in 2005 by 0.6 longitude points (18.3 vs Vince's 18.9). All while bringing only minor impacts to the Azores. Ryan1000 16:56, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

80 mph/977 mbar. But expected to weaken. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 21:12, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Might be stronger than that, pending TCR.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:52, October 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * Pablo, cold waters are supposed to weaken you, not nourish you. This like reminds me of Epsilon from 2005. It should begin to weaken starting tonight though. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:15, October 28, 2019 (UTC)

Aaaaaa, I'm so happy. Glad that Pablo pulled through. This season is really something else. For me, Pablo is the one with the highest grade for this season (as Lorenzo had some impacts too). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 00:21, October 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Pablo (2nd time)
Almost on his way out. Down to 70 mph, 982 mbars. Leeboy100 Happy Halloween! 04:38, October 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * 50 mph, 990 mbar. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:32, October 28, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pablo
And it has died. What an incredible storm for being so far northeast. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:07, October 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * And so, The Life of Pablo comes to a close. Glad that he was able to be outstanding with minimal impact to make up for Olga's utter flop. Send Help Please  (talk) 15:12, October 28, 2019 (UTC)

Eastern Mediterranean cyclone
Don't know where else to put this, but a rare "medicane" appears to be developing in the far eastern Mediterranean and could strike Egypt and Israel. See this story for more info. I suggest creating an "unusual basins" forum page sometime soon to discuss storms like this in the Mediterranean and South Atlantic. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:41, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * About to make landfall. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 20:12, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually, hours before landfall, there was some uncertainty over whether it would impact Israel or not. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 11:03, October 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like it made landfall over northeastern Egypt and its cloud mass seems to be spreading into Israel and surrounding areas. Looking at it on satellite, it seemed to really resemble a mature TS. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:49, October 26, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of the Azores
New AOI at 10/20. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 10:33, October 28, 2019 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
This is actually an invest, and according to the NHC is already producing gale-force hurricane winds. It is expected to move southeastward over warmer waters, leaving open the possibility to another subtropical storm. If Rebekah comes from this, we could be looking at ending at Sebastien or maybe even Tanya this year with November (and the post-season December) still outstanding! Owen 10:57, October 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * What an active season this is. The activity just won't quit yet. If this becomes Rebekah, we're going to tie 2017's named storms, and then get as active as 2010-12 if we somehow end up at Tanya to end the year. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:12, October 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurray, a subtropical Rebekah might be coming! Beatissima (talk) 23:23, October 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/30. Rebekah is very possible from this. 🙂 ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:19, October 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now 30/30! A brief Rebekah is looking very possible. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:05, October 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Maybe a very brief Rebekah. Still at 30/30 with around one and a half days to develop. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:34, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

50/50...Rebekah, anyone? Ryan1000 14:59, October 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * 70/70 now. NHC says advisories could be issued on Tropical or Subtropical Storm Rebekah later tonight. Owen 17:51, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is rapidly organizing and I will be surprised if Rebekah doesn't come by tonight. Are you ready for this, Beatissima? 😀 Since this is only expected to be short-lived, it doesn't look like it will redeem the women. 🙁 2019 will go down in history as the most sexist season ever. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:38, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * I would have loved for Rebekah to make her debut as a major hurricane, but I'll just be glad she's not getting retired this year, so she can come back again and again! :) Beatissima (talk) 20:52, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Rebekah
Congratulations Beatissima, you've gotten your storm! 45 mph/987 mb as of the latest advisory. Send Help Please (talk) 20:50, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Best. Day. Of. My. Life! Beatissima (talk) 20:51, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

And my mom's name too! Good to see Rebekah here, even if it's probably not going to be strong or long-lived. And we still have November left, if we can get a few more named storms we'll have quite the busy season indeed, maybe even top 3 in named storm count again. Ryan1000 20:57, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yes, it's a good day to be a Rebekah (or any spelling of the name). We haven't had so much as a Becky for decades. :) Beatissima (talk) 01:06, October 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * And 2019 is tied with 2017’s named storms. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 22:15, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * And has surpassed 2017's total number of tropical cyclones, if I'm not mistaken, since we've had two no-names and 2017 had just one. Beatissima (talk)
 * That would be right. Although 2017 is still more active in terms of ACE and number of hurricanes and majors - 2017's total was 18-17-10-6 (TD-TS-H-M), while this year's so far is 19-17-6-3. This year has four less hurricanes than 2017 and three less majors. 2019 is like 2007 and 2011 in a way - very active but dominated by weaklings, with only a few strong storms. Anyway, I'm very surprised we somehow got this far this year, as my initial August forecast predicted only a 9% chance of getting down to here. What a busted prediction lol. Rebekah's current intensity is now 45 mph/987 mbar. That's a very low pressure for a storm with winds this weak, although like Pablo, that could be due to its non-tropical origin. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  03:29, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this year has been relatively sparing with hurricanes, but generous with short-lived tropical storms. Anyone know what the record is for number of systems in a season that peaked as tropical or subtropical storms? Beatissima (talk) 03:35, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Might be 2005, as that year with its record-breaking activity had 13 peaks at that intensity (including the October unnamed subtropical storm). 2011 and 2013 each had 12 peaks at that intensity. This year has so far seen 11. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  03:49, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

This storm should dissipate north of the Azores later today, but because of its non-tropical nature, it won't bring as much rain as previous storms like Lorenzo, but it could still bring some winds to the islands. Ryan1000 10:28, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 45 mph, but the pressure has risen to 990 mbar. Of course, another female storm had to be weak and short-lived... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  15:55, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still hanging on, but down to 40 mph now. Beatissima (talk) 02:56, November 1, 2019 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Rebekah
Poof. -- Java Hurricane  11:12, November 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * That was fun! See you again in 2025, namesake storm! Beatissima (talk) 22:06, November 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Far Southern North Atlantic
This is located only 5 degrees from the equator and is currently 10/10 on the outlook. I doubt much will come from this before unfavorable upper-level winds get to it. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  15:55, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to near 0%, this won't develop. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:13, November 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:07, November 2, 2019 (UTC)