Forum:2019 Pacific typhoon season

December
In the event a storm forms in this month... Ryan1000 07:23, December 6, 2019 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
First of the two new invests (actually a day old already). Code yellow on JTWC but some development is expected. This one is situated east of Mindanao. Would be named Ursula by PAGASA if it develops to a TD, not sure if this would have a chance of becoming Phanfone though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:44, December 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be surprised if these systems develop so late in the season. This looks likely to be at least a weak TS moving through the southern Philippines. The one below might be even more significant though. ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  18:41, December 19, 2019 (UTC)


 * No longer on JTWC but still active as an invest at the moment. Models are no longer hinting at any development. ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  20:51, December 20, 2019 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
And this is the second of the two new invests. Also code yellow, might develop too. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 04:44, December 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * It's really looking possible to see at least two more cyclones before the year is out. GFS models on Tidbits seem to make this quite significant when it reaches Luzon. Might be one to watch for a destructive Christmas typhoon, though likely not as strong as Nock-ten was. ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  18:41, December 19, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (98W)
Up on JMA's weather map as a TD, currently 1002 mbar. This is the first TD since late November. On JTWC it's been upped to code orange. ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  20:51, December 20, 2019 (UTC)

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions
With ten storms so far, and since Lekima caused considerable damage and loss of life in China, what are your thoughts on retirements thus far? Mine are here:

JMA: PAGASA: There's mine...for now. Ryan1000 13:25, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pabuk - 20% - Made for the second consecutive typhoon season with a year-crossing storm, with over 150 million USD damage in Thailand, but the death toll was low, and it's not too likely to be retired.
 * Wutip - 1% - Strongest (and only category 5) February typhoon on record, and the second-earliest WPac cat 5 after Ophelia in 1958, but fortunately it remained mostly at sea, with only minor damage to Guam.
 * Sepat - 0% - The minor rain in Japan doesn't justify any chance.
 * Mun - 1% - Small damage and a few deaths won't cut it, and southern China has seen worse.
 * Danas - 2% - Rather minor storm.
 * Nari - 0% - See Sepat.
 * Wipha - 2% - Wasn't much different than Mun.
 * Francisco - 5% - Caused some damage and a death in Japan and South Korea, but will probably stay.
 * Lekima - 100% - Killed at least 89 people with over 7 billion in damage, mostly from flooding and storm surge. Became the second-costliest typhoon ever in China, behind only 2013's Fitow. Shanghai may have dodged the worst part of the storm, but they still got hit quite hard, definitely hard enough to be retired.
 * Krosa - 2% - Killed 2 people with some minor damage, but won't be retired.
 * Bailu - 25% - Ineng may meet the Philippines retirement criteria but I doubt Bailu himself will go.
 * Podul - 4% - Minimal impacts at most.
 * Lingling - 10% - Did some damage to North Korea, but their retirement record isn't the best (Prapiroon in 2000 did billions in damage but didn't cut it) so Lingling may not either.
 * Kajiki - 8% - Stalled for some time near Vietnam with heavy rain, but 12.9 million in damage isn't that much.
 * Faxai - 0% - Hit Japan as a strong typhoon and caused up to 7 billion in damage, though Jebi last year did 15 billion and didn't cut it. Apparently the Japanese public refer to typhoons with numbers instead of names so that's why they didn't retire Jebi and won't retire Faxai either, as destructive as it was. And 2005's Nabi was retired due to religious reasons (Nabi also means "prophets" in Arabic), so that can't be used as a reference.
 * Peipah - 0% - The Failicia of this year's WPac season.
 * Tapah - 2% - Did some damage and killed a few people, but won't cut it.
 * Mitang - 15% - Wasn't as severe as Lekima.
 * Hagbis - 0% - See Faxai.
 * Neoguri - 0% - Small typhoon that remained offshore of Japan.
 * Bualoi - 0% - Stronger than Neoguri, but still a fishspinner.
 * Matmo - 6% - Caused some minor damage to Vietnam, but it's perhaps more notable for it's remnants managing to reach the NIO and reorganize into Tropical Cyclone Bulbul there, which might cause considerable impacts to Bangladesh soon.
 * Halong - 0% - This was probably the best storm of the season, a mighty, powerful category 5 storm, and it never affected land at any point in its lifetime.
 * Nakri - 5% - Hit Vietnam, but with little effects.
 * Fengshen - 0% - Became a little strong, but avoided land.
 * Kalmaegi - 2% - Hit northern Luzon, but it didn't cause significant impacts there.
 * Fung-Wong - 0% - Passed east of Kalmaegi and didn't affect land.
 * Kammuri - >35% - Total damage is unknown as of now, but it was extensive in some parts of the eastern Philippines, and it's PAGASA name may have well met the retirement criteria.
 * Ineng - 100% - Meets the damage criteria of at least 1 billion PHP, so bye.
 * Tisoy - 100%(?) - If it caused at least 1 billion PHP damage, it's gone.
 * All other names - 0% - No other names have met their mandatory retirement criteria (1 billion PHP and/or 300 deaths), so nothing else is getting retired here.

TG's Retirements

 * Pabuk: 5% - To be honest, Pabuk was a fairly notable system (mostly for the NIO), but otherwise, it is definitely not retirement worthy.
 * Wutip: 0% - Strongest NHem February storm on record, but luckily stayed out to sea. Wasn't the prettiest C5, but it was nevertheless a very interesting storm.
 * Sepat: 0% - Lol, no.
 * Mun: 0% - For this storm to have likely not reached winds of even 30 mph on reports, nor a really visible circulation, I don't see any reason to retire this thing lol.
 * Danas: 1% - Very minor storm. Lucky to not have caused much more for similar storms that have struck the Korean Peninsula at that strength.
 * Nari: 0% - Caused literally no damage, despite striking land. Thankfully, no deaths occurred in Japan.
 * Wipha: 5% - In my honest opinion, I believe that Wutip was likely stronger than it actually was according to JTWC, but its damage or deaths is nowhere near enough for retirement. Unfortunately, 10 fatalities occurred in this system.
 * Francisco: 0% - Since Japan doesn't retire names, I've went ahead and put this at 0%, although it would not have been much higher than 1%. Francisco was a fun storm to track, and thankfully, did not follow its original forecast of being a C2 typhoon upon Korean landfall. Only 1 fatality occurred in Francisco.
 * Lekima: 99% - Lekima was one of the most destructive typhoons of the decade, and one of the costliest for China on record. Lekima was also fairly deadly, and I believe that China will definitely request this storm. $7.3 billion is beyond enough for retirement in this basin. Although China is pretty weird about its retirements, it would really surprise me if they did not retire this.
 * Krosa: 1% - It was nice to have another major. No major damage from this storm, thankfully.
 * Bailu: 0% - Ongoing.

PAGASA: All names - 0%. T G  2 0 1 9 16:05, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that may be chosen. This tab will not be done for the WPac because it's simply too complicated to figure out replacements for this basin.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

All intensities are based off of JTWC's 1-min winds (except if only JMA or PAGASA monitored it as a tropical cyclone). Tropical depressions are included only if both agencies monitored it as a TD (JMA TDs or JTWC-exclusive TDs are not included).

International Names:
 * Pabuk : 6%, D - Formed on the last day of 2018 and crossed over, becoming the earliest named storm ever. This achievement ups its grade a bit. Very small chance of retirement just because it caused $156 million and 8 deaths in Thailand, but Indochina is pretty snubbish when it comes to retirements. Peaked at 60 mph according to JTWC and thus gets the strong tropical storm coloring.
 * 01W : N/A, F - Lasted a long time for a TD/disturbance, so I'll give it a bit of credit for that.
 * Wutip : 0.1%, A++ - What an amazing storm. Became the first C5 super typhoon in the month of February! And as a bonus, barely anyone was affected! Only $3.3 million in damage gives it a negligible retirement chance, but that damage unfortunately prevents it from receiving the "S" grade.
 * 03W : N/A, F- - Forgettable, at least it didn't steal a name. Only caused minor damages.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sepat : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - Only considered subtropical by JTWC, it was quite the fail. Just a rainmaker for Japan - no damage or deaths.
 * <font color="#00faf4">04W : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - JMA kept it a TD, thank god.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Mun : <font color="#95A">0.01%, <font color="#A00">F- - An epic fail, but doesn't get a Z because it caused impacts in China/Vietnam, albeit very minor.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danas : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#F30">E - Another minor storm. Some damage and deaths, but it's not going.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nari : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - This failure just brought rain to Japan with no further impacts.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Wipha : <font color="#60A">0.5%, <font color="#F30">E - Struck in a similar region to Mun, but was worse. Considering Vietnam received the brunt of impacts, it shouldn't go because the country never retires names. China might have received minimal impacts, which still gives it a non-zero chance.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Francisco : <font color="#95A">0.2%, <font color="#AF0">C - Japan received the brunt of impacts, but Korea got some as well. It shouldn't be retired for Korean impacts alone, but IMO, a non-zero chance exists due to Korea. Gets some grading points for becoming the first typhoon since Wipha and ending an excruciating wait.
 * <font color="#ff7700"> LEKIMA : <font color="#300">99.999%, <font color="#0FA">B+ - Now the costliest in Chinese history, so this is definitely going. The only problem is that they are a bit weird with retirements, so there's still a non-zero chance it will somehow be snubbed. Lekima's grade is nerfed a bit due to the devastation.
 * <font color="#ffbb00">Krosa : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#0F5">B - We got another major, nice. But it was sorta disappointing that it never re-intensified on its way to Japan like forecasts predicted. Caused the most impacts to Japan but they number, not name, storms and thus don't request anything. Negligible impacts to the Mariana Islands and the Korean Peninsula won't warrant retirement.
 * <font color="#99ff99">Bailu : <font color="#00A">5%, <font color="#F60">D- - Became a STS by JMA, and caused some impacts from the Philippines to China. Impacts seem too light for the retirement of the international name, although its Philippine name "Ineng" meets PAGASA's retirement criteria.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Podul : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#F30">E - Struck the Philippines, Hainan island, and Indochina, but impacts are not enough for it to be retired (although the 15 deaths are quite significant).
 * <font color="#ff7700">Lingling : <font color="#0A5">22%, <font color="#00F">A+ - Became a powerful typhoon as well as the first storm ever to make landfall in North Korea at typhoon intensity. With $236 million in damages, 8 deaths, and the rare strike to North Korea, this has a very small but significant chance of retirement.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Kajiki : <font color="#95A">0.01%, <font color="#A00">F- - A name-stealer (never even considered a TS by JTWC) that brought only light impacts. Most impacts were in Vietnam, which never retires names, but parts of Hainan and China got very meager impacts as well.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Faxai : <font color="#95A">0.1%, <font color="#05F">A - Another strong typhoon, became the strongest to ever strike Tokyo. This powerful strike caused $8.12 billion and 3 deaths, making it among the costliest in history but overshadowed by Hagibis later on. But considering that Japan doesn't retire names, there should be no chance of retirement unless historical significance comes into play (although Hagibis completely overwhelmed it in that regard).
 * <font color="#00faf4">Peipah : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - An absolute failure of a storm, and didn't affect anyone.
 * <font color="#99ff99">Tapah : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#FC0">D+ - This wasn't too bad for Japan, Korea, or the Ryukyu Islands. Sadly did not become a JTWC typhoon (only JMA upgraded it).
 * <font color="#ffee40">Mitag : <font color="#0A0">28%, <font color="#0F0">B- - Killed 22 people and caused >$816 million in damages, which could give it a slight chance of retirement, but the totals are still relatively light by Chinese standards and they've seen worse.
 * <font color="#ff0000">Hagibis : <font color="#0A0">25%, <font color="#00F">A+ - A very powerful typhoon and historic storm for Japan. Now the costliest typhoon ever recorded with 98 deaths to boot. But because Japan doesn't retire any names, this shouldn't go unless it was bad enough for Guam and the Mariana Islands. However because of it now holding the record as the costliest typhoon in history, the name "Hagibis" will now truly live in infamy even outside of Japan, and if it's possible, the name might be struck off the lists (maybe a 1/4 chance) because of its historical significance.
 * <font color="#ffee40">Neoguri : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#0AF">A- - Barely affected any land except for Japan where it passed near. Grade is bumped up to A- due to it far outpeaking the initial forecasts that only called for a name-stealer at the most.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Bualoi : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#00F">A+ - An amazing fishspinner (for the most part), although the Caroline and Mariana Islands saw a little bit.
 * <font color="#99ff99">Matmo : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#F60">D- - $53 million in damages, but assuming most of it occurred in Vietnam, it shouldn't be retired. Became a STS and even crossed into the NIO to redevelop there, so it gets a passing grade.
 * <font color="#ff0000">Halong : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A0F">S - One of the most amazing storms I've ever witnessed. It became among the most powerful beasts I've ever tracked, and completely stayed out to sea! :) Unfortunately, it only peaked at 180 mph according to JTWC (so it's not strong enough for the special color), but I believe it could have very well been a bit stronger than that.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Nakri : <font color="#30A">2%, <font color="#AF0">C - People have died due to rains and flooding generated by Nakri in Luzon. As for impacts to Vietnam, see Matmo's section, although Nakri might not be as severe.
 * <font color="#ffbb00">Fengshen : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#0AF">A- - Another amazing typhoon that stayed away from land.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Kalmaegi : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#5F0">C+ - A minor typhoon that moved very slowly towards Luzon, often stalling, and ended up lasting 10 days. Impacts don't seem to be too severe, although that might change if reports are released later.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Fung-wong : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#FF0">C- - A borderline typhoon that didn't do much to land at all. Failed to be considered a typhoon by JMA's standards.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Kammuri : <font color="#3B0">32%, <font color="#0AF">A- - A pretty significant strike to the Philippines, might have a tiny chance considering that its PAGASA name "Tisoy" is doomed for retirement, but I don't think the $107 million and 12 deaths it caused is enough to retire the international name. Still a small chance though.

PAGASA:
 * <font color="#99ff99">Ineng : <font color="#0A0">25% - Caused Php1.1 billion to Ilocos Norte, which meets their damage requirement. However, PAGASA has already announced that "Tisoy" would go, but not this storm. It's apparent that they sometimes don't follow the damage requirement, as evidenced by a few storms in the past (such as Josie '18). Considering that this barely even met the requirement and stayed offshore, the retirement chances seem meager at best.
 * <font color="#ff7700"> TISOY : <font color="#100">100% - Also meets their damage requirement (Php5.45 billion).
 * All other storms: <font color="#AAA">0% - They don't meet their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP and/or 300 deaths).

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD/SD, <font color="#00faf4">TS/SS (40-50 mph) , <font color="#99ff99">TS/SS (60-70 mph) , <font color="#eeff77">C1 , <font color="#ffee40">C2 , <font color="#ffbb00">C3 , <font color="#ff7700">C4 , <font color="#ff0000">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#880033">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background, the color for "C5" was made more stark due to the severely of such storms, and a new color was added for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) so they would not be in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms that might be Category 6s if the category was introduced. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% ; <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: LEKIMA, TISOY

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: Ineng, Lingling, Mitag, Hagibis, Kammuri

Staying: Pabuk, Wutip, Sepat, Mun, Danas, Nari, Wipha, Francisco, Krosa, Bailu, Podul, Kajiki, Faxai, Tapah, Neoguri, Bualoi, Matmo, Halong, Nakri, Fengshen, Kalmaegi, Fung-wong, all PAGASA names so far except Ineng and Tisoy

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * N/A

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

How Far Can This Season Go?= Current outlook:
 * For international names, I expect that this season will end at or around Phanfone.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Kammuri, or go further to Vongfong.
 * Nuri or beyond is looking unlikely.
 * For the PAGASA, I expect that this season will end at or around Tisoy.
 * It's also possible that this season will go further to Ursula.
 * Viring or beyond is looking unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see around 1-2 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement (international) and 2 retirees for PAGASA. The first candidate is Lekima (international) and Ineng (PAGASA), while the second PAGASA candidate is Tisoy. It's doubtful to see any more retirees form before the end of the year.

International Names:
 * Chances that Phanfone will be used: <font color="#FF0">50% - What a hyperactive November this season has had, although December appears to have quieted down. But Phanfone is still possible before the end, maybe a coin flip.
 * Chances that Vongfong will be used: <font color="#0A0">25% - The chances for two more storms are dwindling, but it still seems quite possible.
 * Chances that Nuri will be used: <font color="#30A">1% - Time is quickly running out so I highly doubt Nuri will come this year. Should be in 2020.
 * Chances that Sinlaku or anything beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - A 2020 storm for sure.

PAGASA:
 * Chances that Ursula will be used: <font color="#9D0">40% - Still possible, but getting less likely, to form before the end.
 * Chances that Viring will be used: <font color="#0AA">15% - Getting quite doubtful.
 * Chances that Weng will be used: <font color="#60A">0.5% - Extremely doubtful to come by the year's end.
 * Chances that Yoyoy or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - Pretty much impossible at this point.

Original forecast from August 25 for comparison:
 * For international names, I expect that this season will end at or around Nakri.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Bualoi, Matmo, or Halong, or go further to Fengshen, Kalmaegi, or Fung-wong.
 * Kammuri or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Neoguri or before is also unlikely.
 * For the PAGASA, I expect that this season will end at or around Tisoy.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Quiel, Ramon, or Sarah, or go further to Ursula, Viring, or Weng.
 * Yoyoy or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Perla or before is also unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see around 3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement (international) and 1-2 retirees for PAGASA. The first candidate is Lekima. The others are expected to occur in September, October, or November, with a very small chance for December or by the end of August. PAGASA retirees are also expected in those months.

International Names:
 * Chances that Podul will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - This should come out of 99W.
 * Chances that Lingling will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Expected to form by the end of the month or the start of September.
 * Chances that Kajiki will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - May arrive in early September.
 * Chances that Faxai will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Probably an early-mid September storm.
 * Chances that Peipah will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Will most likely be a mid-September storm.
 * Chances that Tapah will be used: <font color="#300">99.999% - I expect to see this in mid-late September.
 * Chances that Mitag will be used: <font color="#300">99% - Expected by the end of September.
 * Chances that Hagibis will be used: <font color="#500">96% - Expected by early October.
 * Chances that Neoguri will be used: <font color="#700">91% - Highly likely to form, probably by mid-October.
 * Chances that Bualoi will be used: <font color="#B00">83% - Expected to occur in late October.
 * Chances that Matmo will be used: <font color="#F00">74% - Probably will form by the end of October or in November.
 * Chances that Halong will be used: <font color="#F30">65% - Still in favor of getting this far. Will probably be in November.
 * Chances that Nakri will be used: <font color="#F90">56% - Chances still slightly in favor. Expected to form in November or December. May be the season's last storm.
 * Chances that Fengshen will be used: <font color="#CE0">48% - Starts dropping below a coin toss. If it does form, it will most likely be by the end of November or December. Like Nakri, most likely to be the last storm.
 * Chances that Kalmaegi will be used: <font color="#6C0">39% - The chances are getting lower. If Kalmaegi does come this year, it should be in December.
 * Chances that Fung-wong will be used: <font color="#3B0">30% - Only a slight chance of getting this far in 2019.
 * Chances that Kammuri will be used: <font color="#0A5">22% - I doubt we will get this far. *currently up to here*
 * Chances that Phanfone will be used: <font color="#0AA">15% - I really doubt it. The season will really have to explode.
 * Chances that Vongfong will be used: <font color="#00A">8% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. This should be a 2020 storm.
 * Chances that Nuri will be used: <font color="#30A">3% - Nope. I expect to see this name in 2020.
 * Chances that Sinlaku will be used: <font color="#60A">0.8% - Chances are nearing zero. Hyperactive miracle activity will have to somehow take place the rest of the season, making this year much above average. Should not happen.
 * Chances that Hagupit will be used: <font color="#95A">0.01% - I would be left with absolutely no words if the season somehow got to this point...
 * Chances that Jangmi or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - A 2020 storm for sure.

PAGASA:
 * Chances that Jenny will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - It's guaranteed this year, most likely from 99W.
 * Chances that Kabayan will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Also guaranteed, probably by the start of September.
 * Chances that Liwayway will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should be here in September.
 * Chances that Marilyn will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should also form by the end of September.
 * Chances that Nimfa will be used: <font color="#300">99.9% - No reason why this won't be used. Might be here by early October.
 * Chances that Onyok will be used: <font color="#500">98% - I would faint if this isn't used. Mid-October most likely.
 * Chances that Perla will be used: <font color="#700">91% - Expected by late-October most likely.
 * Chances that Quiel will be used: <font color="#D00">78% - Highly likely to come, probably by the end of October or November.
 * Chances that Ramon will be used: <font color="#F30">69% - Chances still in favor, might be seen in November.
 * Chances that Sarah will be used: <font color="#F60">60% - A November-December storm assuming it comes.
 * Chances that Tisoy will be used: <font color="#FC0">52% - Chances are just slightly above a coin toss, may be the last of the season. *currently up to here*
 * Chances that Ursula will be used: <font color="#9D0">43% - Still possible to get up to here, though the chances are declining.
 * Chances that Viring will be used: <font color="#6C0">35% - Only a slight chance at this point. Chances are in favor of not getting this far down.
 * Chances that Weng will be used: <font color="#0A0">26% - Getting more doubtful.
 * Chances that Yoyoy will be used: <font color="#0AA">18% - Weird name lol. Most likely not getting this far down.
 * Chances that Zigzag will be used: <font color="#05A">10% - Another funny name! But it is extremely doubtful the season will reach this name.
 * Chances that Abe will be used: <font color="#30A">4% - Not getting into the auxiliary list unless a miracle explosion somehow occurs. Even if a realistic explosion occurs, activity will probably fall short.
 * Chances that Berto will be used: <font color="#30A">1% - The PAGASA region will need to consume several shots of energy drinks and caffeine to get this far, somehow. I don't expect to come close.
 * Chances that Charo will be used: <font color="#95A">0.3% - Ok, now this is just getting out of hand.
 * Chances that Dado will be used: <font color="#95A">0.001% - The formation of this would leave me without words....
 * Chances that Estoy or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - Not happening this year.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:03, August 26, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 17:30, December 14, 2019 (UTC))

Sandy's retirements and grades
Ok, here we go!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#CCFFFF">STS , <font color="#F3E5AB">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )

JMA:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Pabuk :  C , <font color="9ACD32">7.5%  — A great year and basin crossover storm that is the earliest named storm in the WPac and NIO on record. It impacted the Malay Peninsula, inflicting $157 million (USD) and causing 10 deaths. I doubt this will be going.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Wutip : <font color="CD7F32">A++ , <font color="00CC00">0.1%  — A wonderful C5 typhoon that is the strongest tropical cyclone in the NHEM ever recorded in the month of February. Wutip inflicted only $3.3 million (USD) on Guam and Micronesia, which means it’s staying.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Sepat :  F ,  0%  — Um, pretend this storm didn’t exist.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Mun :  F , <font color="00CC00">0.01%  — This weak storm only caused minimal damage and a couple of deaths; it’ll stay.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Danas :  E ,  1%  — Danas was a rather minor storm to Korea, causing $6.42 million (USD) and 6 deaths.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Nari :  F ,  0%  — A weak storm that only caused rains in Japan.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Wipha :  E ,  5%  — Relatively minor storm, causing $44.3 million and 27 deaths. I also doubt this will be going.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Francisco :  C ,  0%  — Like TG said, Japan doesn’t request to retire names, they number them instead. This broke the streak of the consecutive TSs and only caused 1 death in Japan.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Lekima :  A- , <font color="FF69B4">99%  — This will be going. Lekima inflicted $9.28 billion in China alone, becoming the costliest typhoon in China on record. China will highly likely request the name to be retired because of the damage. Impacts aside, this was a good storm to track.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Krosa :  B ,  0%  — Had a huge eye after its peak, caused $2.64 million in damages and 3 deaths but since Japan doesn’t retire names, it’s a 0%.


 * <font color="#CCFFFF">Bailu :  D- ,  1%  — A typical severe tropical storm, but was forecast to be a typhoon once. It caused some relatively minor impacts so far in China and the Philippines.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Podul :  TBA  — Currently active.

PAGASA:
 * Ineng: <font color="FF1493">100%  — This name is going. It caused 1.1 billion pesos to the Philippines.


 * All other names:  0% , they don’t meet the criteria of Php1 billion or/and 300 deaths.

 Sandy 156   :)  04:49, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 00:35, August 29, 2019 (UTC)]

West Pacific Typhoon:
This season has already seen its fair share of typhoons, as listed below:

International Naming List:

 * Tropical Storm Pabuk - Caused some casualties in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. (25%)
 * Typhoon Wutip - Imagine that the strongest typhoon this year happens in February. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Sepat - Weak storm, caused rain, the end. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Mun - It did stuff. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Danas - Went to South Korea. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Nari - Did barely anything. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Wipha - Little too close to Hong Kong. Wrong time, Wipha. (0%)
 * Typhoon Francisco - Did things. (0%)
 * Typhoon Lekima - VERY bad typhoon. The name will be retired. (99%)
 * Typhoon Krosa - It spun fish and also affected Japan. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Bailu - Haiyan's replacement was much less destructive and aggressive, minus the three unfortunate deaths. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Podul - Affected China. (0%)
 * Typhoon Lingling - Typhoon that affected the Koreas. (1%)
 * Tropical Storm Kajiki - Affected Vietnam and South China. (1%)
 * Typhoon Faxai - Bad for Japan, but they've fared worse. (2%)
 * Tropical Storm Peipah - Known only because it existed. (0%)

PAGASA Naming List:
TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 14:16, September 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Tropical Depression Amang - Caused landslides. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Betty - Nothing. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Chedeng - Weak, did barely anything. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Dodong - Nope, nothing. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Egay - Nothing. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Falcon - Caused floods in Luzon. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Goring - I have nothing to say. (0%)
 * Typhoon Hanna - Sank three boats, sadly taking the lives of 31 people. Other than that, this name will not be retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Ineng - The same as Betty, Chedeng, Dodong, Egay, and Goring. (0%) I'm kidding, this name MAY be retired. (50%)
 * Tropical Depression Jenny - The same as Betty and four of the above names. Funny how all the storms that basically did nothing end with the letters "g" or "y". (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Kabayan - The same as Jenny and five of the above names! Funny how all the storms that basically did nothing end with the letters "g" or "y". (0%)
 * Typhoon Liwayway - Did nothing to the Philippines. So it is basically THE SAME AS KABAYAN AND SIX OF THE ABOVE NAMES!
 * Tropical Depression Marilyn-Nimfa - Double-named storm. Sank multiple ships, sadly. Thankfully, from what we know so far, no one died. (0.01%)