Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Well, the 2012 Pacific hurricane season hasn't yet begun, but I do believe we will have a 12-17 storm season, a 5-9 hurricane season, and a 3-4 major hurricane season in 2012's PHS. =) Ryan1000 01:09, July 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * 13 - 18 named storms, 9 - 11 hurricanes, 3 - 6 major hurricanes.10Q.INVEST 12:16, September 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Later in the year I will put my prediction to see how it goes.Allanjeffs 03:18, January 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * 14 days before the season officially starts.... :D Cyclone10  E-Mail  20:14, May 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ten more days! :D -- Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:46, May 5, 2012 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
So, what are all you guys pre-season predictions? Mines is 15-7-4, going low this year since I over anticipated the last two years. YE Tropical Cyclone  01:41, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

14-8-5. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:21, March 31, 2012 (UTC)

probably more because it looks like a neuter year.Allanjeffs 22:51, March 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * 14 is average in a neutral year. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:38, March 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * 14 to 17 name stoms.Allanjeffs 05:35, April 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Because the latest CSU forecast calls for ENSO this Summer/Fall, I'm going for 18-10-6. Ryan1000 20:06, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
I bet NONE of us saw this coming!-- Cy10 E-Mail  19:30, April 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * It needs more convection to become a TC. Cy10 E-Mail  19:39, April 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Convection is increasing, who knows what could happen? Omeka 2.0? BTW, there was a storm in April before. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * About to enter the WPAC. Oh, and where is everybody? You'd think everyone would come rushing in, is HWiki going dead or something? Is it non appearing the the recent changes thingy? YE Tropical Cyclone  04:18, April 8, 2012 (UTC)




 * No, HWiki is just dead. D: JMA probably will issue advisories for 90C. Cy10 E-Mail  05:43, April 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Probably eill be the second names storm of the Western pacificAllanjeffs 06:25, April 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * And its classified as as Sub-tropical system now

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 178.5E, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND.THE MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION (070900Z) REVEALS A WEAK WARM CORE ANOMALY THAT IS HORIZONTALLY LARGE AND DISPLACED HIGHER IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY SEEN FOR A TYPICAL WARM CORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE WEAK CENTRAL WINDS, DISPLACED CONVECTION, AND TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS, THIS DISTURBANCE IS CLASSIFIED AS A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST A TRANSITION INTO A WARM CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT RATHER OPENS THE CIRCULATION INTO A WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE LOW THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.Allanjeffs 18:43, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

It's gone now. 90C was absorbed by front. Cy10 E-Mail  20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC)

YE, Carmen of 1980 existed in the CPAC in that April, but didn't form there. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:03, April 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * That still counts as a TC. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:56, May 11, 2012 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Came out of nowhere really. None of the models really showed this occurring today, more like weeks from now. But here it is and it looks great! Yqt1001 19:20, May 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * A preseason storm would be really nice. :D Cyclone10  E-Mail  19:46, May 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * First presason invest in EPAC NHC AOR since 2006. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * NHC says that 90E has a medium chance of becoming a TC.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  14:37, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.

Here we go! YE Tropical Cyclone  15:53, May 12, 2012 (UTC)

Wow! The season hasn't even started yet, and we have a possible tropical cyclone forming! Hoping for Alma 2.0! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:38, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * So, you want 10 people to die? YE Tropical Cyclone  21:38, May 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * ....and retire the name Aletta? Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:51, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I never said anything about Aletta killing people or being retired. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:45, May 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * With regards to what Andrew said about Alma 2.0, I'm pretty sure he meant the 1990 Alma, not the 2008 Alma. Besides, I wouldn't expect more than a tropical storm from this, maybe a weak hurricane, but it won't hurt anyone regardless. As I mentioned last year, Alma means "soul" in Spanish, so it was probrably retired for being an offensive name, not because of it's impact. From what I read after Alma 2008, it wasn't anything more than a big rain shower for the folks down there. Ryan1000 14:18, May 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Another special TWO issued. 50%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:48, May 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * If I remember correctly Alma did quite damage in Costa Rica Ryan.Allanjeffs 00:57, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT... Yqt1001 00:40, May 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * Damn! You got there before I did! Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:31, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

I personally don't view the damage in Costa Rica as being "extremely bad" after Alma 2008, since they've seen many other disasters that were worse, but if it was retired for that and not the meaning of its name, w/e. And we have our first red alert of 2012 in the EPac, i'd be surprised if we don't get Aletta now. I personally think it will hit a peak of 45 mph, maybe 50 mph. I'm surprised NHC doesn't even take it up to TS intensity in the next day or two. Ryan1000 00:46, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

It only has tomorrow to strength Ryan I also predict a ts of 45 to 50 mph it doesn`t have a lot of time to strength into a big monster.Allanjeffs 00:57, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

Its now up to 80 percent &mdash;12R.KIEWII 11:55, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

Now I really believe the 2012 PHS is trying to start early. I think Aletta will form from this system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:12, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES... THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

ATCF has it as 01E but we'll wait a few minutes until the NHC issues an advisory, if they do. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:40, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
Now designated, 45 kt peak expected. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:55, May 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * No, it's 35 knt. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Oops, I was reading the gusts instead of the mean wind. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:03, May 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * I see no enthusiasm over this? It's a pre-season EPac storm, does no one care about how rare it is? Even if it did only come to being renumbered barely 6 hours before the season started. Yqt1001 19:11, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

Now 45 kt peak expected &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:38, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

At least is forecast to become a name storm:)Allanjeffs 21:01, May 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * It always was. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:21, May 14, 2012 (UTC)

Oh, don't me wrong Yqt, I'm very enthusiastic about this. Even though it formed only one day before the official start of 2012, it still count's as a pre-season storm, and it's still pretty cool to see something form this early in the EPac. This is the first time we've seen a storm form this early here in 16 years. As a matter of fact, Aletta-to-be looks almost like an exact replica of the 1996 tropical storm. The only difference is I don't think we will (or hope we won't) see any ships be affected by this thing. Ryan1000 00:51, May 15, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Aletta

 * Up on RBT. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:44, May 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fixed the header for ya, but not quite yet up by NHC. Hopefully we will see it soon! Ryan1000 00:54, May 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah its likely:EP, 01, 2012051500,, BEST, 0, 104N, 1080W, 35, 1004, TSAllanjeffs 01:59, May 15, 2012 (UTC)

On NHC: ...DEPRESSION BECOMES FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... Yqt1001 02:54, May 15, 2012 (UTC)

Now this storm is officially Aletta. It is predicted to get gradually stronger, then weaken. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:46, May 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now 40 knts. Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:59, May 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * peaked already now downhill.Allanjeffs 03:24, May 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 40 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:54, May 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Can we all use knts please? Thank you. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:54, May 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * why? I have no trouble using knots but I prefer miles and if someone ask why is because miles are easier for me .Allanjeffs 01:02, May 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * I prefer miles too, there's nothing wrong with either. There's no need to tell others what they should use, YE. Using the metric system(which the U.S. doesn't use), km/hr would be official instead of knots or mph, and I bet none of us like km/hr over mph or knots/hr. Anyways, with Aletta, it was good while it lasted, but now it's spiraling downward, and soon it will die. Ryan1000 02:21, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Aletta
Going down, now 35 mph...Ryan1000 09:53, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

She looks better than ever right now.Allanjeffs 23:24, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
A floater but not confirmed by ATCF. Looks nicer anyways and probably has the best chance to develop. Yqt1001 19:50, May 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">yawn* Whoa, whoa, whoa! What do we have here? A pre-season invest in EPac? I haven't seen anything this early since tropical storm one-e in 1996. It's not every day we have a pre-season storm in the East Pacific proper, and although this storm (Aletta) would be the first one in 16 years, it's only a day or two before the official start of the season. It's not that far before the season begins (1992 holds that record). Ryan1000 20:55, May 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * Imagine both 90E and 91E formed before May 15. Or is my calender screwed, and it is really June and summer (which means I have no school). YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:00, May 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">this what the NHC says about the systems: AT LOWER LEVELS...TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE NEAR 09N105.5W AND A SECOND NEAR 09N105.5W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN AGREEMENT THAT PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENTLY...THE WESTERN-MOST LOW HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SHORT BANDS...BUT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS SLOWLY REACHING NEAR THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...THE MORE EASTERN LOW DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A PARTIAL 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SUGGEST A WELL DEFINED CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY INSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AS  IT PRESENTLY COVERED IN OUR OUR HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2. I actually like more the Atlantic than the Pacific so I hope we get Alberto soon.Allanjeffs 00:30, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think only one of them will form the NHC is not very enthusiastic with these two systems anyway we could have Aletta or we could have nothing.Allanjeffs 00:25, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looking better than 90E right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Well, I don't care whether or not Alberto's coming, Aletta's likely coming sooner one way or another. As I said, if this thing develops, it would be the first pre-season storm in this basin since tropical storm one-e in 1996. Ryan1000 05:57, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * UPDATE: First medium risk thus far in the EPac; 40% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Ryan1000 15:35, May 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Both systems merged so I believed that the 40% is for both 91E and 90E. Yqt1001 15:45, May 12, 2012 (UTC)

Actually no, 91E partially dissipated, 90E is the 40%. We should be discussing this over there. Yqt1001 15:50, May 12, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Following Aletta
Probably will become a stronger storm than Aletta. Maybe even hurricane a few days out. 10% atm. Yqt1001 21:57, May 15, 2012 (UTC)

Agree probably a cat 2 or 3 hurricane.Allanjeffs 23:07, May 15, 2012 (UTC)

My gosh! It's only two days in the season, and we have a potential candidate for Tropical Depression Two-E? That sounds like the beginning of an active season. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:58, May 16, 2012 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and up to 20%. Yqt1001 12:24, May 16, 2012 (UTC)

Medium 30% &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:52, May 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Not only does this storm have a chance to beat Aletta in terms of strength, but there are a fair number of models that take this storm slamming into southern Mexico over the next few days. The folks there better be careful of this thing (future Bud). Hopefully it won't get too strong. Also, if this storm does become Bud, it would mark only the third time in EPac history that two storms formed in May. The other times that happened were in 1971 and 2007(though 2007, on the flip side, had no storms form in June). Ryan1000 02:27, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Still at 30%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:49, May 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Probaly be cat 2 or 3 hurricane.Allanjeffs 02:59, May 17, 2012 (UTC)