Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season

AOI: South of Mexico
Another AOI at the south of Mexico appears. 0/30 as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:22, July 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * DE TING BE BLOWIN UP MAN §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 11:24, July 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one probably won't do too much. Models are more interested in blowing up a possible system after this into a powerful hurricane. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, July 31, 2018 (UTC)


 * in what way won't ileana do anything and john be poppin dem hurricane pills brah? §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 14:56, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * SO WAIT JOHN BE POPPIN PILLS TO BECOME A CAT 5? AND THE OTHER STORM IN THE MODEL RUN IS KRISTY?? If shear is gonna relax in august according to models then 420% likely that lane be on roids §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 15:00, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/40, and I feel this could be Ileana, but not sure how strong it'll get. However, "John" sounds like a strong name, and it would be exciting to see the system after this become "John" and intensify to as much as a C5 (as long as it remains out to sea). ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:29, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * i predict: hector will peak at a c3, ileana a c3 and john a c1. kristy and lane are two c4s. -- §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 11:35, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

Still not on the 2-day TWO, but it is now at 0/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:11, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * ileana be bvsed LOL! -- §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 13:33, August 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * This will probably become Ileana next week. Rooting for it to become a hurricane or stronger unless it affects Mexico in the long run. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧

Nvm my below comment this'll become something soon. Currently at 10/80. Ryan1000 15:04, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Oh lol, I mixed this up too. The AOI that I said wouldn't do anything much is the one below at 10/30, while the "possible system after this" is actually this AOI at 10/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:13, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

Currently 20/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:14, August 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/90 now. Ileana is coming... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:34, August 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * 50/90, and the race to become Ileana (with the below AOI) is on. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:29, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * 60/90 now. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Finally made into an invest. This is actually the 70/90 one. The race for Ileana is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:08, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:02, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 90/100, this will form very soon. ChowKam2002 (talk) 18:24, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
Now a tropical depression. 30 kts/1006 mb. T  G  2 0 1 8 20:44, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm John
Forecast peak at 95 knots, but could be higher given rapid intensification is likely. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:39, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ok, the EPac is on FIRE. Three active systems, and a fourth one looking likely from the 60/80 invest?! Newly-named John is going to be the stronger one out of the twins of very close proximity. I'm betting at least a C3, maybe a C4, is in store for John. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * John's intensity history has been somewhat off and on, he was a cat 2 in 1978, a major in 1982, 1994 and 2006, but he failed miserably in 2012 and wasn't too strong in 2000 or 1988. If John can remain offshore without causing much impact to Mexico, I personally hope he becomes a cat 5 so we can have a Pacific hurricane name reach category 5 intensity twice, but that intensity may be pushing it a bit far with this one. Nonetheless, RI index is high, and I would be surprised if this incarnation of John doesn't become at least a cat 3. Ryan1000 05:16, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * This storm is now at 60 mph and 999 mbars, and is forecast by the NHC to become a hurricane in the next six to twelve hours. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:52, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Rapid intensification index is extremely high with this storm (60 to 90% according to the NHC's latest forecast discussion) and John already looks like a hurricane on satellite imagery. He's expected to become at least a 125 mph cat 3 at this point, but given John's very favorable environment and small circulation (TS winds go only 70 miles from the center), there is a very good chance he could get stronger than the 125 mph that NHC currently forecasts; the SHIPS and LGEM models show an even higher intensity. I'd say John is already a lock for a cat 4 at this point, and maybe there's an outside chance John could be the first Pacific hurricane name to reach category 5 intensity twice. Ryan1000 12:51, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * This doesn't have much time. This will pass near Socorro Island and thereafter enter much colder water to its northwest. With that said, John is making the most of it and 60 knots/day RI would not surprise me, which would put Category 4 in play. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:52, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

NHC's latest forecast discussion says that this has an 80% chance of going up 40 knots in intensity over the next 24 hours, and that could be conservative. Small and compact EPac storms like John have a tendency to overshoot the NHC forecasts for them, we saw how Aletta didn't have much time and dry air in front of it and she became a cat 4, John could too or even become a cat 5. He also could absorb Ileana, as stated in her forecast discussion. Ryan1000 16:31, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Almost a hurricane now: 70 mph, 993 mbars. John will definitely be a hurricane in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:30, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane John
Now it is one. 75 mph, 990 mbars. Leeboy100 Hello!! 20:59, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Rapid intensification is on the way, John could be a major hurricane as early as tomorrow morning. Ryan1000 21:31, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * 90 mph/977 mb. Thus begins the RI, only question now is exactly how strong he'll get. This incarnation of John may have the potential to outperform John of '94 in thems of intensity, but we'll have to see about that.  Send Help Please (talk) 09:26, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actually I think a minimal 3 from John because of how fat he is. What he gives to this world (eating up Kristy and Ileana and being a womanise) he will get back. Just wait for Miriam and Lane. yare yare daze (talk) 14:57, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * bruh he became a 2 --yare yare daze (talk) 15:05, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * John might be able to brush C4 actually, the cloud tops around the eye are rather cold. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:22, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * bruh he looking like he gonna eat kirsty --yare yare daze (talk) 15:29, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * John is nowhere near Kristy for John to absorb Kristy. Unless you meant Ileana, which is what John is doing lol. I'm expecting John to be a C3 at peak.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   17:33, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

I just hope John doesn't completely miss major status a la Fabio. Send Help Please (talk) 21:23, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Honestly I wouldn't particularly mind if John peaked where it is now, or at 95 kts. This would only be the second non-major Hurricane John on record after the 1978 storm, and would therefore add a little variety. Then again, barring post-analysis of Fabio, we've already had a C2-peaking storm this season, whereas we've yet to have one peak as a C3 (Aletta, Bud, and Hector all went on to peak as C4s, with the latter possibly even becoming a C5)... so a C3 John would add just as much variety to this year's PHS as a C2 John would to that name's intensity history. Basically I'll be equally satisfied with either this being John's peak, or John peaking as a C3. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:51, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * There is still about a day or so for John to acquire major status. If it didn't I would be disappointed. I think of "John" as a strong-sounding name. Please don't pull a Fabio!! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:46, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

No changes as of latest advisory, John should've laid off the meatballs, 2fat4major. Send Help Please (talk) 03:20, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * I think you meant he should’ve laid off the cannibalism. He is looking pretty fat, as you were saying. :P Leeboy100 Hello!! 04:26, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well, John was pretty fat before eating Ileana, I guess his gluttonous tendencies morphed into cannibalism when he decided that warm water and moist air weren't enough to sustain him. Regardless, he's down to 100 mph/972 mb, and his descent has begun. Perhaps him not reaching major status is karma for the aforementioned cannibalism... Send Help Please  (talk) 10:37, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Looks like John ran into unfavorable conditions faster than expected. The eye is now indistinct, and ATCF has brought John down to a C1. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:50, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * that's what you get for eating up innocent ppl (remember iris and hamberto? eating karen for dinner?) he is paying the price: not becoming a major hurricane, also wasting ileana and kristy's opportunities to be strong storms. likely the next storm after kristy will be intense after the cold wake has gone --yare yare daze (talk) 17:12, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

And John follows Fabio and Hilary. Oh well, he was fun to watch at his peak. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:52, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oh well, expected to weaken to dissipation. I wonder how many more storms will fail to reach major status.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:30, August 08, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm John (2nd time)
John was downgraded 6 hours ago. Ah well. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:11, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

yawn... gimme lane now.... she better be good.... 🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 18:13, August 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 60 mph/997 mb as of latest advisory. Also, Lane is a male name on this list. Send Help Please  (talk) 02:58, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * 40 knots and 1001 mb. Bye bye. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:33, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone John
Rip in piss. The cannibal has met his end. Send Help Please (talk) 15:09, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

John has ceased to be. See you again in 2024. Ryan1000 15:09, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Lol both of you posted at the same time. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:28, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

Goodbye cannibal. I wonder if Kristy will eat the remains. Circle of life. Leeboy100 Hello!! 07:31, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * yummy yummy in my belly --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 11:35, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * A bit disappointing that John flunked major status by pulling a Fabio. But I guess that's punishment/karma for being a cannibal. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:20, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico II
A new AOI overlaps with the AOI above in the 5-day TWO. Currently 10/30. The EPac has awakened. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:20, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Assuming I'm not getting this and the above storm confused, this AOI is now up to 10/80 and is expected to become a depression early next week, but the AOI in front of it is only at 10/30, not as likely to develop. I say that this'll be Ileana. Ryan1000 12:49, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * This may be the 10/30 one, I believe. The 10/80 one is the AOI above this one. This may steal Ileana if conditions become favorable, but for now, the AOI above would be the one that has the highest possibility of becoming Ileana. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:55, August 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nevermind, I mixed them up. This is the AOI directly behind Hector, but this probably won't develop anyways. Ryan1000 15:04, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

This disturbance is pretty much just Ileana food. Send Help Please (talk) 21:47, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * 20/40 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:14, August 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * 30/50. This may be John after all (or Ileana, if the unexpected happens). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:34, August 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * 60/90. This might actually be Ileana first if it spins up fast enough. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:28, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
And this has been invested first, actually. Up as 94E on TropicalTidbits. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:31, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90. Ileana and John could come at the same time due to this and the above system. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:44, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I think this is the 60/90 one. Regardless, it is most likely that we will see Ileana and John before the succeeding week starts. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:10, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Never mind. This is now 70/90 as the invest above is 80/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:02, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * The chances of this invest forming have actually gone down a bit, to 60%/80%. I guess this one will be Kristy, since 12-E could become John before this forms, unless it gets its act together quickly. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:50, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

If this does become Kristy I doubt it'll be strong, since it will be following in Hector's cold, upwelled wake. Ryan1000 04:48, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Agreed that it probably won't be too powerful, but if it becomes named soon, we could see 4 active named systems in the EPac and CPac! Insane especially after the dead July. Something must have made it more favorable?! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:14, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I've heard that people are forecasting an El Niño to form this year, but i'm not sure if this is a cause. I'm guessing it was just the conditions improving like a decrease in wind shear. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:44, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is back in the EPac, and most forecasting agencies expected an El Nino this year to begin with, with higher activity expected in the EPac but less in the Atlantic. Yeah, we may have had two hurricanes in July in the Atlantic but the basin hasn't had much since and isn't expected to anytime soon; the AOI near the Azores right now isn't expected to develop, let alone affect land. Ryan1000 12:51, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wind shear has declined quite a bit in the basin. This should become Kristy as it tracks west even if it's taking its sweet time now. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:50, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Still 60/80, but this thing still has a high chance to become Kristy in the next couple of days (or so). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:30, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
"Satellite data indicate that thunderstorm activity associated with a well-defined low pressure system located about 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has continued to become better organized during the past several hours, and a special advisory package will be issued on Tropical Depression 13-E by 1000 PM PDT." -- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:16, August 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * The track forecast is now out, 13E (Kristy) might have an outside chance to be a hurricane but currently expected to be 65 mph, and interaction with a weakening John late in the forecast period could turn Kristy-to-be northward, eventually over cooler waters and dissipating. Ryan1000 05:50, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kristy
Here she is, already outpreforming initial forecasts. 50 mph/1000 mb right now, expected to be a minimal hurricane in 48 hours before interaction with John. Send Help Please (talk) 09:21, August 7, 2018 (UTC) Kristy you little minx. Anyway I predict a C2 peak. yare yare daze (talk) 14:57, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * At least i'm glad the EPAC is finally pulling its acts together after sleeping in July, which, if I can recall, is generally one of the most active months for the EPAC. Kristy should also be a hurricane in the coming days.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   17:35, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * The MJO moved into the basin, which should explain the high activity we are seeing. Kristy still forecast to become a hurricane, but it will only peak as a weak C1 if it does so (unless we see a sudden unexpected RI stunt). ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:50, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * looks like kristy won't become a hurricane :/ thanks to the cold wake... yare yare daze (talk) 17:10, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * likely (and hopefully) lane will be better. --yare yare daze (talk) 17:43, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hopefully so, Kristy now weakening.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:35, August 08, 2018 (UTC)


 * do you think lane will be a good one? --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 00:09, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

Kristy's pulling off a strengthening stunt. Winds have gone up to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) while the pressure has dropped to 994 mb. Come on Kristy, you can reach hurricane status! ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:13, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ditto! Also PLEASE LANE, BECOME A GOOD HURRICANE! NOT JUST FOR ME BUT FOR YOUR BEST MATE DARIA! --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 17:59, August 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * What if Kristy were to turn the tables and absorb John, avenging Ileana? No seriously, with John weakening and beginning to look more and more disorganized, and Kristy strengthening, I’m beginning to think that might be a possibility. Leeboy100 Hello!! 18:23, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * not really, I don't think so. ALSO WILL LANE BE A GOOD STORM?? WHO RECKONS SO???? --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 18:33, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE I WANT LANE TO BE A GOOD ONE I LITERALLY BETTED £50 ON IT --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 20:24, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 70 mph. Holy crap she might actually do it. Send Help Please (talk) 03:02, August 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still at 70 mph come on pls. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:34, August 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * "now weakening more rapidly" thanks john! dragged her northward and wasted an opportunity. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 11:37, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy
That was fast, but she's gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:12, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well that was disappointing. Guess we can only hope Kristy pulls a Kiko '13 and gets upgraded in post-analysis. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:45, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, really disappointing that Kristy flunked hurricane status... I agree with you that hopefully it gets an upgrade in post-analysis. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:18, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

...Back up on the TWO at 10/10. But, Kristy's probably not going to redevelop. Ryan1000 05:02, August 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * A bit surprised it reappeared, but now it's no longer mentioned on the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:23, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: West of Costa Rica
New kid at 10/20, development may be inhibited by future Ileana/John though (the AOI just to the northwest of this thing). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:52, August 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/30, but I'm not as excited about this system. The other two systems look more likely to become named. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:45, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tidbits. It's currently at 30/40. EPac is coming back to life. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:03, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Already at 90/90. This one will also form. ChowKam2002 (talk) 18:24, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * The steroids are kicking in now after the E Pac overdosed at the end of June. Send Help Please  (talk) 18:49, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Woah! I did not expect this to jump up so fast. This might beat the two storms ahead of it to become Ileana, and if all 3 systems form, we'll be at Kristy by tomorrow or sometime early next week. The EPac is really kicking up right now. I guess that El Nino that was forecast is truly up in effect for the basin. Ryan1000 18:51, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Plot twist. This may become Ileana. Still poorly organized as of the moment though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:13, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 30 knots. This may actually win the race and become Ileana. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:11, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately if it does, it may not become that strong of a fishspinner. Currently forecast to peak at only 50 mph. Ryan1000 13:44, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ileana
And it looks like Ileana has arrived. currently 40 kts/1003 mb, and expected to stay at TS strength. T G  2 0 1 8 20:42, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Ileana has now strengthened to 50 mph and 1001 mbars. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:46, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * This and Twelve-E look like one big amorphous blob on satellite.  Send Help Please (talk) 02:10, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * They're both in surprisingly close proximity, and John could eat up the remnants of Ileana in the long run. For now Ileana is expected to bring impacts to Mexico, and a tropical storm warning has been issued. John shall become the dominant one and prevent Ileana from becoming more than a strong TS. For now, I doubt this will become a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:17, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

2AM (1AM CDT) advisory: 999 mbars, 60 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:24, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now 65 mph / 998 mbars. It is now forecast to become a hurricane by the NHC. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:47, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, Ileana is making me (and the NHC) eat our words. It might very well be a hurricane at this rate, but the track now brings her closer to Mexico's coastline. There's a high pressure system over Mexico right now, but the rotation of, and interaction with, her brother John might try to force her closer to the coastline. There could be some impacts with this if that happens. Ryan1000 12:41, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Should rotate counterclockwise as it interacts with John. Could become a hurricane in the meantime but GFS/ECMWF don't have a good handle on this so confidence is low. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:55, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

The NHC no longer expects this to become a hurricane as of latest advisory. It's only a matter of time before Ileana becomes John food (which is the exact opposite of what I said several days ago lol). Send Help Please (talk) 21:18, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, NHC says that Ileana already looks like an outer rainband of John by now, so John's probably going to eat up his little sister sometime tomorrow. Ryan1000 21:31, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * "John's probably going to eat up his little sister" sounds so morbid when you take it out of context. Also, which storm is truly the little sibling? Ileana may be smaller in size, but she did form first... although one could lawyer about the precursor to John becoming identified before the precursor to Ileana. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:26, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

"Hurricane cannibalism" has happened before, the TD that became Hurricane Alex in 2010 swallowed category 3 hurricane Darby in the EPac at that time, since Darby was so small compared to the much larger Atlantic depression, and Ileana is pretty small compared to John. Ryan1000 01:10, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 50 mph, pressure increased to 1001 mb. Ileana will be gone soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:26, August 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * TropicalTidbits says gone. Waiting for NHC to confirm. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:32, August 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Good grief, Ileana got Bravo'd by Johnny! We can't sing "Come On Ileana" anymore... Seems to be the boys eating the girls all the time, as you mentioned with Alex x Darby and Ileana x John x Kristy... yare yare daze (talk) 14:57, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Ileana
And John and Ileana became one.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  15:04, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * shows how much of a greedy guts johnny bravo really is smh --yare yare daze (talk) 15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

In response to your above comment, Darby is a male name, not a female name...lol. So Alex '10 ate another guy. Ryan1000 15:15, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * ok if you say so lol --yare yare daze (talk) 15:19, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I rarely ever see this sort of thing happening. Ileana just literally became John's lunch. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:02, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * For me this Ileana-John event reminds me of Zeb and Alex '98 in the WPac. Speaking of Alex – in this case, the Atlantic one – you are all correct: he absorbed EPac's Darby 12 years later. To be fair, Darby has became a unisex name through the years, but in the lists it is used as a male name, which makes Ryan technically correct. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:18, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * ok lol if you say so. yare yare daze (talk) 16:32, August 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Ileana has now just become food for hungry Hurricane John. However, to be fair, I’d much rather have John resort to cannibalism than to feed on humans. Leeboy100 Hello!! 16:39, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ileana didn't last long until John ate her up, some hurricane cannibalism lol.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   17:36, August 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Welp, see you in 2024, Ileana. I just want to say that I don’t consider Ileana a fail, because she went through a decent stint of intensification, plus who knows what she could have done had her brother not resorted to cannibalism? :P Leeboy100 Hello!! 20:05, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

The first of John's interactions ends in cannibalism. Wonder what he'll do to Kristy. Send Help Please (talk) 23:12, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * They are a bit far apart. I do not expect them to interact much. Cannibal John literally murdered the poor Ileana, holy sh!t. If John wasn't here, Ileana would have had potential to get much stronger than it did, and possibly become a devastating Mexican storm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:55, August 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * If he murders Kristy the same way, should John be charged with homicide? Hurricane homicide? Hurricide? Leeboy100 Hello!! 04:22, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Should John be sent to hurricane hell with Harvey Irma Maria etc. for this? ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:52, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * definitely. he is the equivalent to iris/hamberto 1995 when they ate up karen yare yare daze (talk) 17:09, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I HOPE THE NEXT STORM IS A GOOD (C3+ ONE) BECAUSE IT'S MY FAVOURITE NAME --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 19:21, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Off the Panama Canal
Mate, we've potentially got a long tracker and maybe our fourth major hurricane of the year given how low-riding and west-tracking this storm is, plus developing favourable conditions for this storm to carve a lane for herself. 0/20. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 00:30, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Models have been predicting a category 2 peak but could be better than that given that "Lane" will likely cross into the CPac. Possible anomalies for this storm include: Darby ('16), Fernanda ('17), Madeleine ('16). --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 00:31, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/20 rn. Lol, easy there, ik you're hyped for Lane (I'm assuming its your favorite name out of the whole list), but let's not get hyped too early yet lol. This thing gotta develop first, and then you can hype it all up :P  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     01:26, August 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * still anticipating this is another maddie according to the potential path and the fact this is a lowrider tho --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 11:33, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

10/30 now. Lane is coming. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:12, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Madeleine 2 anyone? --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 15:16, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested. Maddie 2 is coming! --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 15:20, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/40, only Europeans develop this as a category 2 crossover (CPAC) storm. Despite this, this storm could be our next long-tracker. COME ON LANE!! 🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 20:46, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Likely to be Lane, but not so sure about it being a formidable long-track major hurricane (or a re-Maddie) yet. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:27, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * How mate? The models have been trending towards a possible re-Darby. Also consider the fact this is a westward tracker and a low-rider with little shear and warm water ahead according to the maps. All that could mean the system, especially being a west-tracker, could overperform expectations. I mean a lot were sceptical of Hector but look where he is now. :D --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 23:40, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/50. COME ON LANE!!! --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 23:48, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mate this isn't gonna form lol 10/50 nobody develops this --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 17:42, August 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 10/40. Most models do not develop this at all, one says this might become Walaka. 🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 00:29, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * The formidable long-track major hurricane I mentioned earlier is very unlikely to ever come from this. In fact, I'm questioning if it'll even become more than a TS due to lack of model support (however, 97E model intensity guidance on Tropical Tidbits seems to have a few models develop this, including SHIP which takes it to C1). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well models have been on and off with Hector and a few other systems I remember so don't give up hope yet. In fact, now I don't see this developing UNLESS this becomes Walaka. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 12:44, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Most models drop development of this system, but one has this as Walaka. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 12:49, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yup, this won't form. Next. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 16:27, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

Weirdly, this is still 20/50 in the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:02, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * I JUST HOPE THIS F-CKING WAVE F-CKS OFF ALREADY BECAUSE IT. WILL. F-CKING. STEAL. MY. FAVOURITE. NAME. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 19:03, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 40/70, kill me. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 23:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Woah, calm down. Just because it's your favorite name doesn't mean it HAS to be a powerful fishspinning major hurricane. I also heard that you bet 50 pounds for Lane to be huge. Unless this invest does a completely unexpected RI stunt, you might unfortunately lose your money. This invest is too far away to be Walaka, unless it takes like a week to develop (most likely it will be Lane). If you lose your money, well that's too bad. Next time, you can learn to not bet that much money on such luck-based outcomes. This system is up to 40/70 and hopefully it won't be a name stealer. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm expecting RI from this system LOL! --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 23:53, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

This is organizing in a relatively rapid manner. 60/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:28, August 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * If Lane does become a major (intensity models take her up to category 2) then the entire Discord Sh-tpost server is going to have a massive celebration. We're all rooting for you, Lane. To celebrate, I will also listen to Renai Circulation for 10 hours on loop. FUWA FUWA RI, FUWA FUWA RU! --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:40, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

80/90, on the right invest this time. Me stoopid :/ Send Help Please  (talk) 18:10, August 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * 90/100, here comes Lane (or at the very least 14E). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:26, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * rip my £50 lole --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:34, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E
Wait, did you bet on Lane becoming a major?-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:41, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * i did lole --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 02:48, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * A 105 mph point at the end of the forecast. Since NHC forecasts are often conservative about the long run, you might be lucky and get your money back after all. Lane is likely to actually be a formidable long-tracked major, and possibly even follow in Hector's footsteps! 😊 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:52, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * (edit coflict by both Rara and Steve) Yep, expected to be a hurricane in the long run.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:02, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

This will definitely become Lane in the next advisory (or the advisory after that). For me, this can either pull off a Hilary/Fabio/John or an Aletta/Hector. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:25, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lane
Now named Lane and forecast to be a major hurricane. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     14:56, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * I PREDICTED SHE WOULD DO THIS BACK IN NOVEMBER 2017 LOL! --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:53, August 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * From discussion 3 (latest one): "Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems destined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector". Congratulations, you are now very likely to keep your 50 pounds. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:58, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * thx for telling that bruh, now imma save up and hope I don't splurge on betting next time LOL! what category do you think she will peak at, and anomalies for this storm? --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 16:04, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hmm I'm thinking C4 peak, maybe 115 to 125 knots, since the sea surface temperatures ahead of Lane aren't especially high unless Lane pulls a Hector and goes annular. There might be some threat to Hawaii in the long run but that's more than a week away so it's probably too early to tell. ~ KN2731 {talk} 16:10, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also this season is moving pretty fast. We're already up to the L storm in mid-August with over a hundred ACE units (courtesy of Hector), the only sticky point being the CPac which hasn't seen Walaka yet. ~ KN2731 {talk} 16:14, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

I think she and Bud will be similar intensity tbh --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 16:20, August 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * If this becomes another strong and long-lived major hurricane like Hector, I think he could be going down "Victory Lane" or something like that. But unlike Hector, Lane could eventually pass north of Hawaii instead of south, on his current projected course. If not, he could at least get closer to the islands than Hector did. May be something to watch out for. Ryan1000 17:31, August 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it's not going to be a Hawaii threat in the distant long run... but with the way things are appearing now, it's possible it could more of a Hawaii threat than Hector was. Hawaii is now in view on the forecast track map, and it appears to be moving on a trajectory that would take it south of Hawaii (like Hector) but possibly closer. At least Rara will keep her 50 pounds (unless Lane falls far short of expectations). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:50, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

At least Rara keeps the 50 quid. However, this is slowly becoming like 2014's Iselle. While Iselle weakened to a TS before hitting Hawaii, Lane is expected to become a high-end Category 3 (at least according to JTWC's unofficial forecast track). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:06, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * I agree this is like Iselle but I'M JOESTAR, not RARA! lole. also, also watch how lane increased in organisation. a lot. what intensity do you predict? --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 12:00, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Given the fact EPac storms can overshoot the NHC forecasts for intensity in ideal conditions, like Aletta earlier this year, I wouldn't be surprised if Lane becomes a cat 4 like Iselle or Hector. Ryan1000 12:18, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * ditto what ry said above ^^^ but exact peak? --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 13:14, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Lane
Now a hurricane, and still forecast to be a cat 3, but we could easily see a cat 4 from this given Lane's impressive structure, I personally predict 145-150 mph, but it could go to 155, just under cat 5 like Hector did. Ryan1000 03:48, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Since it should stay south of Hawaii, I would even root for it to become the C5 that Hector didn't become. But that's just wishful thinking. More likely, it might peak a little under Hector's intensity (I also predict around 145-150 mph). Lane is Hector 2.0... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:07, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * lole I knew lane was going to be a big one this year, I get my money back weebs NOW IMMA PUT RENAI CIRCULATION ON AND BLAST IT OUT OF MY CAR RADIO WHILE DRIVING ON THE MOTORWAY massive celebration on discord.me /sh-tpost by the way. ¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 12:16, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

RI underway, C2 now. 85 knots, 982 mb pressure which seems on the high side. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:03, August 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * It is also expected to reach Cat. 4 status in the NHC's latest discussion. Send Help Please  (talk) 15:06, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

95 knots, 973 mb. Lane will be our 4th major this year in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:35, August 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0z ATCF secures Joestar's 50 quid. EP, 14, 2018081800,, BEST, 0, 116N, 1349W, 100, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 15, 15, 1011, 150, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, LANE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:13, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * I just knew lane would make it LOL! DAILY REMINDER THAT I'M HELLA PSYCHIC! Now, time to go and wash your face and eat some cake, Lane is a major. --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 01:25, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Lane
It's official, Joestar's 50 pounds are safe. Send Help Please (talk) 02:43, August 18, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to hit 140 mph, but I see no reason Lane can't get up to 145-155 mph, it's a very well-organized storm and his RI isn't stopping. Not surte if he'll make it all the way to cat 5 though. Also, something else I should point out is when Lane was named 3 days ago, he became named 5 days before Lester in 1992, so we're actually ahead of that season's pace at this moment, but we're still quite a ways behind 1985, and 1992 also had some CPac storms as well. Ryan1000 04:05, August 18, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow, Lane is just taking off. 105 knots, 964 mbars, and is expected to strengthen further into a Category 4. Also, this is somewhat off-topic, but it’s good news, and I’m just going to put it here. Power has been restored for pretty much all of Puerto Rico aafter Hurricane Maria last year. Hopefully, unlike Maria, Lane will miss a US state/territory that’s out to sea, in this case Hawaii. Actually, never mind, Lane is supposed to miss Hawaii anyway. My bad. Leeboy100 Hello!! 05:44, August 18, 2018 (UTC)


 * Joestar/Rara must be having a party right now. She correctly betted this and will get her 50 pounds back! This is really getting strong and will probably peak at a similar intensity to Hector (like the upper C4 range). I even hope this becomes the C5 that Hector never became. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:47, August 18, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now officially Category 4. 115 kts, 948 millibars. Leeboy100 Hello!! 09:14, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * told you lane was going to be a major hurricane, category 4, fish heading near hawaii but misses it since november 2017 LOL! daily reminder that I'm HELLA SMART --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 11:33, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * also can lane make it to cat 5 --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 11:33, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

"Victory Lane" has an outside shot of becoming a 5, but the NHC says favorable conditions will only persist for the next 12 to 24 hours or so before Lane moves into a less favorable environment. Still, this is looking like a really cool storm to track like Hector. We're probably going to see a lot of ACE from this storm too, though not as much as Hector. Ryan1000 12:30, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Most recent advisory kept the pressure steady but bumped the winds to 120 kts, and the 18z ATCF has retained those values. With this considered, combined with the fact that Lane's eye seems to have clouded over a bit recently, I suspect he's leveling off in intensity, though it would be cool to see him strengthen a bit more (I like the numbers 130 and 150... it'd be nice if Lane could peak at 130 kts/150 mph). Joestar's success with Lane reminds me of how I somehow managed to accurately predict five years in advance that last year's Arlene would form in April. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:25, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

2 PM PDT advisory leaves Victory Lane's intensity in check at 140 mph and 948 mbars. He could muscle in a few more mph in intensity before weakening due to somewhat higher shear as Lane eventually passes south of Hawaii. Ryan1000 21:08, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * I guess it will be weaker than Hector. It's also beginning to cross into the CPac ATM, and will start dying out soon after passing Hawaii. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:18, August 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * -pulls lane's hector mask off his face- wait... iselle? --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 01:23, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

Eye has clouded over. CPHC still gives borderline C4 though Lane looks weaker than that. Recon should be start soon, though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:40, August 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * He's already started to die down, it's likely Lane won't get any stronger at this point, but a 140 mph storm is still a fairly good intensity. Also, he's now expected to pass even further south of Hawaii than Hector did, which is good news, and he'll be weaker. Ryan1000 04:42, August 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 125/956, and still expected to pass well south of Hawaii down the road. Ryan1000 12:55, August 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol, loving the typo "LANE HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC AS A CATAGORY 4 HURRICANE"

>catagory heh --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 13:33, August 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lol, typos happen even to the best of us. 😜 Lane is now forecast to actually start curving to the northwest while retaining hurricane status for the reminder of the 5-day forecast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   Wish me  a happy birthday!  🎉  21:57, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

Down a bit more to 120/960. Forecast to turn northwest while south of the western Hawaian Islands and be a TS around that time, but like Hector, Lane should stay a safe distance from the islands. Ryan1000 08:14, August 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, the forecast track got shifted far to the right with the most recent advisory. If Lane rides the right edge of the cone, he could hit Hawaii as a hurricane... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:37, August 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * 961 mb, but up again to 125 mph. Current forecast track now puts Lane nearer to the Hawaiian Islands. I hope he stays out of Hawaii, no one wants an Iniki 2.0 here. And present conditions are not in favor of a Hawaiian landfall; steering currents are likely to make Lane move westward and remain at the south of the island chain. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:57, August 20, 2018 (UTC)

Don't jinx it...we wouldn't want to see Lane do that. Even if he does recurve enough to hit Kaua'i, I have doubts he'll be as strong as he is now when he does so, the intensity by then is currently expected to be no more than TS strength, and due to increasing shear currently near the islands, that could keep convection enough away from the center to avoid causing flooding rains. Ryan1000 20:23, August 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Winds back up to 115 kts, but the pressure has risen to 964 mbar - extremely high for a C4. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, August 20, 2018 (UTC)

Fortunately, the latest forecast track also takes a slight westward jolt at the end of the forecast period, which would still keep Lane offshore from Hawaii, hopefully by a safe enough distance to avoid any noticeable effects. Ryan1000 23:47, August 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * It appears this may come close enough to Hawaii to cause some noticeable impacts but hoping it's nothing terribly bad there. This shouldn't come even CLOSE to Iniki's impacts unless something unexpected happens. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   Wish me  a happy birthday!  🎉  06:50, August 21, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, Lane's intensity just jumped up to 150 mph and 950 mbars. The CPHC now forecasts Lane to become a category 5 hurricane within the next 24 hours, the intensity Hector fell just 5 mph short on. Lane is still forecast to narrowly miss Hawaii to the south and west. But it's still too soon to tell, and the uncertainty in the forecast with this storm is high, as shown by Lane's recent intensity spike. Ryan1000 09:20, August 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 135 kts/940 mbar and just a hair away from a C5; Hurricane Watch issued for Hawaii and Maui Counties. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:12, August 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * According to Dr. Master's latest blog post on Lane, the last time a significant hurricane struck a Hawaian Island outside of Kauai was back in 1871, but otherwise Kauai is the only island that has seen a landfalling hurricane since reliable record-keeping began, with only two (Dot '59 and Iniki '92), plus they had a close and destructive brush with Iwa of 1982. Lane is currently projected to be a 100 mph category 2 storm by the time he reaches a point just southwest of the islands of the Big Island, Maui, Kaho'olawe, Lanai, and Moloka'i before turning due west. Dr. Masters stated that while increasing shear could weaken Lane, his intensity could also extend for a longer time period due to good outflow that could come from the jet stream. Even if Lane doesn't directly make landfall, it's going to deliver a large area of TS force winds that could cause widespread damage and flooding on the islands. The Euro keeps Lane offshore but the GFS and HWRF take him right onshore on the western part of the Big Island and into the aforementioned islands northwest of the Big Island as a sizeable hurricane. In a worst-case scenario, if Lane takes a track between what the GFS/HWRF and Euro are predicting over their past few runs, Lane could be the first Pacific hurricane to hit the Hawaian Island of Oahu at hurricane intensity. If Lane hits the island of Oahu as a strong 100+ mph hurricane, he would easily be the costliest Pacific hurricane on record and would cause severe impacts to the shipping industry across the Pacific Ocean, Honolulu is the gateway to the Pacific since several ships that cross from Asia to America and vise versa often stop in Honolulu to rest up, and if the city is severely damaged from a direct hit by Lane, it would take a long time for them to recover, even moreso since Hawaii, like Puerto Rico and Maria last year in the Atlantic, is an isolated landmass that would take a long time for relief efforts to get to. In any instance, however, I'm having an increasingly hard time seeing how this won't be the last usage of Lane... Ryan1000 20:29, August 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * I can’t confirm this, and no official figures have been given, but I’ve heard reports that according to recon, Lane has strengthened further. Hold on to your seats, everyone. We may have a Category 5 on our hands as we speak.... We’ll know for sure in a little over 30 minutes from now. Leeboy100 Hello!! 20:22, August 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * Actually, disregard the above post. These reports actually came out not long before the current advisory that was already released. My bad. However it doesn’t appear to have weakened any, so for all I know, it could be upgraded to a 5. Or, at the very least, stay the same. Leeboy100 Hello!! 20:32, August 21, 2018 (UTC)

New 11 AM advisory keeps the winds steady but increases the pressure slightly to 941 mbars. SST's and Shear are favorable enough to keep Lane as a strong major hurricane for the next day or two, but as Lane approaches the large upper-level trough that is expected to break down Hawaii's subtropical ridge of high pressure, he will take a sharp northwestward turn. The only question is when will Lane take that turn, how close will he get to Hawaii's main islands, and how strong he will be. The current forecast cone makes lane a formidable hurricane approaching Hawaii from the south, but hopefully he misses a direct landfall on the islands. But like I said above, Lane's 140 mile wide TS wind field means that even if he doesn't make a direct landfall on the islands, he will certainly bring strong winds and life-threatening flooding rains which could trigger mudslides. Ryan1000 21:35, August 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * If this is verified by the CPHC, then Lane may be upgraded to a C5 with a pressure in the 920s very soon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:05, August 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * We expect too much out of CPHC to do their job.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:59, August 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol. Stubbornly kept at 135 kts for the new intermediate advisory but the pressure is down to 929 mbar, unseating Hector as the most intense storm of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:04, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * HOW IN THE HECK IS THIS NOT A CAT. 5??? It's Igor all over again... Send Help Please  (talk) 00:37, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * >dethroned hector as strongest storm of the season
 * >didn't upgrade to c5 yet even though recon clearly has evidence she is a cat 5
 * >likely will be retired after 2018, so this is likely the last ever hurricane lane
 * >hopefully not hawaii's irma/maria
 * >lastly she hella thicc, she be dabbin on hula ppl while sitting her fat self on the volcano. hopefully the volcano blasts her apart before she makes landfall --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:25, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

Joestar, out of sheer curiosity, why do you keep referring to Lane as a she when it's a male name on the list? Send Help Please (talk) 00:42, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * on 4chan lane is referred to as "a thicc girl who came to sit her a$$ on a volcano" BUT STAY SAFE! --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:47, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * My curiosity is satisfied. Now to wait for the next advisory and see if Lane gets the well-deserved Cat. 5 upgrade.  Send Help Please (talk) 01:30, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

I've seen some tweets from the people in recon on Wunderground saying they've found 142 knot (163 mph) winds from their dropsonde on the 8 AM advisory, so yeah, I'm a bit surprised Lane hasn't been upgraded to a 5 yet, but...it could be anytime soon, and with most of the thunderstorm activity to the north and east of the circulation, even if it doesn't make landfall, I'd be surprised if heavy flooding rains don't hit the islands. Also, the 18Z GFS and HWRF are still on track towards a landfall on the southeastern Islands, though the track is currently following the Euro's projection, it's still a wide cone and anyone in Hawaii needs to watch out for this thing. Ryan1000 01:53, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lane honestly looks like a C5, but if it's still a C4, then its doesn't have time for C5 as there are strong wind shear around Hawaii, which may tear Lane apart and weaken it before it makes its close approach to Hawaii.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:57, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Why the heck is it still being considered a Category 4 when it is clearly a 5? It’s the exact same thing that happened with Igor eight years ago. I’m gonna say it. Not saying that I want storms threatening land to become Category 5s, because I don’t. However, it’s quickly beginning to become a giant pet peeve of mine when a storm is very clearly a Category 5, yet the NHC/CPHC refuses to upgrade it for literally no reason whatsoever. Lane is for all intents and purposes a Category 5 right now, and yet the CPHC refuses to acknowledge it as such. I just wanted to get that off my chest. No matter what category it is right now, though, at least it’s supposed to weaken before impacting Hawaii. Unfortunately though, a weakening hurricane hitting Hawaii is still extremely rare, so Hawaii hasn’t seen anything like this before. This is still one to keep an eye on either way. Leeboy100 Hello!! 03:16, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

"The central pressure dropped around 10 mb between the 18Z and 00Z fixes, with the last eye dropsonde measuring 930 mb with 16 kt splash wind, yielding a minimum pressure estimate of 929 mb. Peak SFMR winds during this mission were 140 kt, and max flight level winds were 146 kt. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates range from 6.5/127 kt to 7.0/140 kt, with the latest ADT current intensity holding steady at 6.5/127 kt. Although the central pressure has dropped sharply during the last 18 hours, it is now about what one would expect for a hurricane of strong Category 4 intensity in the Central Pacific basin, and based primarily on the aircraft data the intial intensity is held at 135 kt for this advisory."

This is the dumbest paragraph of text that I have ever seen from a meteorological center of any kind.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:41, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Next recon aircraft has taken off. Hopefully that will clear it up once and for all. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:47, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Never mind: that's actually that's the air force plane. NOAA2 is entering Lane already. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:48, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

Il Lane isn't upgraded to a 5 on the next intermediate advisory, I've lost all faith in the CPac hurricane center. Not that I want a cat 5 threatening land, but if it looks like a 5 and sounds like a 5, it's a 5. Also, a hurricane warning is now in effect for the big island. Ryan1000 04:16, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * I take back what I said yesterday about Lane not being another Iniki. This is actually getting very scary and can cause significant impacts to Hawaii. Honolulu is directly in Lane's danger zone. Even if it doesn't make landfall it could still be something very costly for Hawaii. Hoping it will be less devastating than I fear it might get. Also a major disappointment to see Lane get more intense than Hector but still not become a C5. A re-Igor everyone. -.- ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:23, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Lane
Partially redeemed themselves.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  04:41, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally confirmed in the new advisory update. Also, does anyone find it odd that all of the category 5's that have ever existed in the CPac (after Patsy) formed under this year's naming list? We had Emilia, Gilma, and John in 1994, Ioke in 2006, and now Lane in 2018...I think it's fair to say this EPac naming list is cursed. Also, with Lane now upgraded to a 5, this naming list now has the most category 5 hurricanes under its belt, counting Ioke, with 5. The previous record was a 3-way tie at 4 between this naming list, list 1 (Linda and Guillermo '97, Rick '09, and Patricia '15), and list 6 (Elida, Hernan, and Kenna '02, and Marie '14). Regardless, with Lane now becoming a 5, Hawaii could suffer severe impacts from this storm if Lane cones close enough to a landfall...stay safe Hawaii. Ryan1000 04:59, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Took them long enough. -_- ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:59, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * At least this is good reasoning.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  05:03, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * According to Tyler Stanfield from Twitter, Lane has actually been a 5 for nearly 6 hours according to the revised ATCF. Hopefully Lane weakens before passing close to Hawaii. Ryan1000 05:16, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Okay, well. At least we won’t have another Category 5 getting snubbed. That doesn’t provide much comfort for those in Hawaii, though. Keep the Hawaiians in your thoughts. It’s gonna be a rough few days for them. Leeboy100 Hello!! 06:33, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * I spoke too soon... I'm glad it actually managed to reach C5 status, but that doesn't change the fact that Hawaii could be devastated by Lane in a few days from now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:49, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

Good grief. Now I think I jinxed it. I am happy that NHC/CPHC did not pull off an Igor/Joaquin/Jose on this one, but I am slowly becoming increasingly scared for Hawaii. Fortunately for Big Island, Kilauea's activity has slowed down for now, but the worst case scenario here is that this becomes Yunya or Durian 2.0 (which hit the Philippines in 1991 and 2006 respectively, during the volcanic activities of Pinatubo and Mayon). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:17, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's storms like Lane that represent maybe the greatest conflict in what we do as hurricane fanatics. The beauty and excitement of tracking a Category 5 hurricane (indeed, the first in the CPAC since Ioke) collides with the terrible idea of Lane possibly causing catastrophic damage in Hawaii later this week. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 09:45, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lane, you had better slam into that shear and slam it good, the last thing Hawaii needs is a Cat. 5 knocking at their doorstep.  Send Help Please (talk) 11:38, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

Lane's not going to last as a cat 5 for much longer as he will be encountering less than ideal conditions to support such a storm later today and tomorrow, but by then Lane will take a sharp turn towards the north-northwest due to the weakness in Hawaii's ridge, and could still be a large and powerful category 4 storm. Worse, with Lane's northeastern quadrant much larger and stormier than his southwest side, he's more likely to bring flooding rains and strong winds to the islands regardless of a landfall. The 06Z GFS and HWRF models are still insistent that Lane will take an almost due northward turn later today that would bring it on a collision course with the western tip of the Big Island, as well as the small islands northwest of the Big Island (Maui, Kaho'olawe, Lanai, and Moloka'i, as I mentioned above). But if Lane takes a track between what the Euro and the GFS/HWRF are forecasting as I mentioned before, then Oahu could be in for a direct hit, and by then Lane is expected to be at least a 90 mph hurricane, but if Lane can hold onto at least category 2 or 3 strength by then, he'll be much worse. However, Bob Henson said in Dr. Masters latest blog post that since the water offshore of Hawaii is very deep, storm surge isn't going to be able to build up as easily as it would with a hurricane striking the shallow coastal waters of the Gulf or East coast of the mainland U.S. However, there are some vulnerable parts of shallow water near Honolulu, such as Ke'ehi Lagoon near downtown, and Pearl Harbor. Also, off-topic, but there was a 6.2-6.3 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Oregon earlier this morning, and that could indicate that the great Cascadia megaquake that has been feared for a long time could be looming, like how there was a magnitude 7 quake that struck Japan shortly before their massive magnitude 9 megaquake in March 2011. I can't imagine what could happen to Hawaii if they get directly hit by both Lane and a Tsunami from a Cascadia megaquake. Not saying that I expect (nor do I want) such a worst-case scenario to happen, but it could very possibly be on the table, and no CPac cat 5 has ever come as close to Hawaii as Lane is currently projected to. Ryan1000 12:17, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * New advisory is out, Lane's pressure has been knocked down 5 mbars from 930 to 935, but his winds are still 160 mph. Lane could lose category 5 strength later today if his pressure continues to fall, but an ERC, if Lane undergoes one, will only expand his windfield to ever more dangerous widths, and could mean dangerous effects for Hawaii even if he passes a somewhat safe distance away. Ryan1000 12:33, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Lane (2nd time)
Okay, back to C4, but still a strong one. Lane is down to 155 mph, but the pressure remains at 935 mb. So far, Lane's center is expected to move farther from Big Island, and I hope it stays like that. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * High vertical wind shear are still around Hawaii, so that should weaken Lane pretty soon. However that does not mean that Hawaii is safe - Lane would still be a strong storm when it makes its closest approach (or worse: landfall). There is a user here who doesn't come here that often, Cane Harvey that lives in the state of Hawaii, and will be affected, so hope he stays safe, same goes with the people of Hawaii. The Big Island under Hurricane Warning at the moment.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:51, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

Pressure and winds remain the same as of the 8 AM HDT advisory, 135 knots and 935 millibars, but it has slowed down a bit. Thankfully, Lane should start weakening soon, but will still be a big hurricane when affecting Hawaii. Also, I mentioned last year when Irma was a Category 5 that there has been a streak of at least one Category 5 hurricane in the Western Hemisphere every year since 2014. With Lane’s stint as a Cat 5 last night, that streak continues. Marie 2014, Patricia 2015, Matthew 2016, Irma and Maria 2017, and now Lane 2018. Leeboy100 Beware Lane’s Fury. 18:31, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * oh wow so laney became an a$$blasting c5 last night (no surprise there) and I kinda hope me moves away from the hawaiian islands to keep everyone safe... looks like, sadly, he is here to btfo everyone as he won't stop:/ --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:40, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

Looks like Lane may have briefly reached Cat 5 again earlier with some extremely deep convection (even more so than last night). However, the eye is shrinking now along with warming convection, suggesting potentially an EWRC or wind shear finally getting to Lane. Would expect the intensity to be lowered to 130kt next advisory since all recon has been cancelled. Kiewii 22:25, August 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * The 5 PM HST advisory just came out, and Lane is now down to 145 mph and 939 mbars, but he's now making that northwestward turn that we were fearing, and Oahu is now under a hurricane warning for the first time since Iniki. The 18Z GFS and HWRF still lean towards the eastern edge of the cone, but the Euro is still insistent that Lane will pass offshore. But Iniki of 1992 was forecast to remain offshore as well for a long time before that storm recurved to strike Kauai, if Lane takes even a slight turn to the east of the center of the cone, that could drastically change the outcome of impacts in Hawaii over the next 3 days. Ryan1000 03:15, August 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Lane is very frightening right now. The hurricane warning atm extends through ALL Hawaiian islands except for the Kauai region, which is still under a hurricane watch. If Lane recurves into Hawaii instead of staying offshore, it will have devastating consequences. We could even be talking about the costliest hurricane in Hawaiian history if it deviates to the east... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:09, August 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Actually if Lane manages to avoid the Big Island and maintain intensity as a result it might be even worse when he gets up to Oahu. Both ways, Lane's going to be very bad. Really, really bad. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:58, August 23, 2018 (UTC)

Weakened to 130 mph. I hope Lane is down to a C3 when the next advisory comes out. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:15, August 23, 2018 (UTC)

All of the past 9 runs of the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models have predicted Lane to change course off the projected track because the ~13,600 foot peaks on the Big Island (Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea) could induce a localized area of low pressure to the west of the Big Island that could tug Lane due north or even north-northeast towards the island later today and tomorrow. The Euro is the only major model that has consistently kept Lane offshore, but just because it's the top model doesn't mean it's always right, since the models have never had to deal with a hurricane like Lane in modern history near Hawaii. If Lane does what the other 3 models are predicting, then he could get much closer and could make a landfall on the Big Island or Maui, but if he does a blend of the Euro and the other models,Lane would get close to the Big Island but then turn northwest and make landfall in Oahu, by which time he's currently projected to be an estimated 100 mph storm, or a category 2 hurricane. While the islands aren't going to see much in terms of storm surge due to the deep offshore water of Hawaii that makes it hard for storm surge to build up, rainfall and mudslides are definitely a threat; The Weather Channel has already reported up to 10 inches of rain from Lane's outer rainbands on parts of the Big Island, and Hurricane Hiki's outer rainbands in 1950 dumped 52 inches worth of rain on the high mountains on the Big Island despite never making landfall there, which was only 8 inches less than Harvey of last year. Also, the wind damage from a 100 mph hurricane directly hitting Honolulu, if Lane does that, would easily make him the costliest Pacific hurricane on record, far more than Manuel. Lane's eye is currently becoming filled with clouds however, so it seems that he's feeling some wind shear as we speak, but he could also be trying to build up convection on his west side to hold on to his intensity a bit longer, if you check the loop on him. Ryan1000 12:29, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * New advisory out. Still 130 mph, pressure now at 949 mb. Ryan is correct, Big Island is already experiencing torrential rainfall now. This is not looking good for Hawaii at all. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:59, August 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Still 130/949 as of the 11 AM HST advisory. The fact that Lane is still a Category 4 is making me really nervous. Leeboy100 Beware Lane’s Fury. 20:46, August 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * We’re also getting hourly updates now, by the way. Leeboy100 Beware Lane’s Fury. 20:48, August 23, 2018 (UTC)

Finally weakened below a 4. 125 mph, 953 millibars, but is still a major hurricane. Leeboy100 Beware Lane’s Fury. 00:12, August 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * I hope Harvey has gotten his things together and is somewhere safe, Lane isn't playing games.  Latest spaghetti models are trending more toward a Maui landfall.  Send Help Please (talk) 01:33, August 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Cane Harvey lives in Hawaii? Also hoping he's somewhere safe... CPHC still shows it curving just south of Hawaii, and I really hope it isn't going to make any landfall. At this rate, especially if it makes landfall, Lane could be one of the costliest hurricanes of Hawaiian history... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:39, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Lane is now down to 120 mph and 959 mbars, so a weakening trend is underway, and the shear will only increase from here on out, so Lane could dissipate sooner than currently forecast, but while the shear will weaken Lane, it's also possible he could end up recurving more due to it, and get closer to Hawaii, and Lane's continued slow movement will mean heavy rain and life-threatening floods regardless. The hurricane warning for the Big Island has been dropped to a TS warning, but the other islands aren't out of the woods yet. Also, two other things I'd like to note: 1) despite weakening, thunderstorm activity is continuing to bulk up and increase near the center of the storm, meaing more moisture and rainfall will be associated with Lane, and 2), if you check the latest RGB satellite loop for Lane, it seems that another tiny circulation briefly developed on Lane's northeasternmost quadrant, just due east of the Big Island. I don't think it's a depression on it's own merit, but it's...interesting, to say the least. Ryan1000 04:51, August 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * EDIT: Just realized that swirl east of the Big Island is actually 95C, and that's the area of low pressure that Dr. Masters was talking about that could play a role in the projected north-northeastward hook in Lane's track that has consistently been predicted by the GFS and HWRF models. That can't be ruled out, and Lane has appeared to take a slight north-northeastward jog if you check the latest satellite loop on him. Furthermore, if that happens, an Oahu landfall could be in play afterwards, and would bring even more flooding rains to the islands. The outer rainbands of Lane have already produced local rainfall totals of 18 inches on the Big Island, and at least 30 homes in Hilo are submerged by Lane's floodwaters, if you check the new Wunderblog post from Dr. Masters. Ryan1000 06:17, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wind speed remains the same in the latest update, but pressure has gone down to 956 mb when it was 959 mb. Lane, you're not supposed to be strengthening. Send Help Please  (talk) 10:37, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

I hope Cane Harvey is safe. Reports of 20 inches of rain in 24 hours have fallen on Big Island alone. This is not looking good at all. May not be an Iniki but may be Iwa/Hiki 2.0, or worse, Lane is becoming Hawaii and Cane Harvey's Hurricane Harvey. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:24, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * STAY SAFE HAWAII! Anyway 4chan be blowin up with lane memes... lane finna be dabbin on hula girls.... lane... please behave... NO WAIT ARE YOU WEARING A MASK IRMA? no wait... ALL I'M SAYING IS YOU OUGHTA BEHAVE NOW OR ELSE YOU'LL BE JOINING KANNA AND PATRICIA IN THE RETIREMENT ZONE --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 11:54, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Pretty sure the pressure going down from 959 mb to 956 mb was a result of CPHC correcting their pressure estimate using buoy data, since Lane's eye passed over a NOAA buoy around that time and it recorded a pressure of 957 mb with light winds. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:42, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'll be very honest &mdash; Lane was an absolutely gorgeous storm at peak intensity, but at this point, he's probably the worst-looking major hurricane I've seen since Joaquin. At least the deepest convection is currently staying (as far as I can tell) largely to the south and west of Lane's center. Hopefully it stays that way, especially if Lane does indeed remain offshore; we don't want flooding to get any worse than it already has. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:16, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Lane is getting ripped by very strong shear as we speak, which is why he's been losing his organization recently, but the core of Lane's heaviest rain could go over the Oahu, Maui, and the other islands later tonight and tomorrow. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Lane dissipated on Monday or even Sunday, if he's sheared hard enough. He's already been able to dump more than 20 inches of rain on Hilo and the Big Island, due to the downward slopes on the volcanoes on the islands that drive the rainwater downhill. Several roads, stores, and homes have already been flooded, and this is from a hurricane that was far from directly hitting them. Hopefully it doesn't get too much worse tonight. Ryan1000 14:43, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Lane (2nd time)
Down to a C2, but the flooding is just beginning. Big Island is getting a bad hit from Lane. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, August 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * The GFS and HWRF may have been right about where the thunderstorm activity is heading, as it's moving right north-northeast towards Maui and may impact Oahu, but Lane's actual circulation is looking less likely to make landfall at this point. But still, even if the core of Lane stays offshore, if the heaviest thunderstorms of Lane get pulled off by the shear and move over the islands of Maui, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, and Kahoʻolawe, there could be historic flooding from Lane's rainfall there, on top of the flood damage caused to the Big Island as is. Ryan1000 15:52, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane warning has been downed to a tropical storm warning for the Big Island, while Lane is projected to curve westward. I am concerned about Lane being somewhat a slow moving hurricane, and from what I've heard, some places had 20 inches of rain. So far, no deaths had been reported (and lets hope this stays the same).  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     16:38, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Lane is looking considerably weaker now. So much so that it doesn’t even look like a hurricane anymore. However, with that said, it’s still dropping heavy rain on Hawaii. Leeboy100 Beware Lane’s Fury. 23:35, August 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * New advisory. Lane is now a Category 1, and winds have dropped 20 mph, from 105 to 85. Pressure up to 970 millibars. Leeboy100 Beware Lane’s Fury. 23:44, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lane (2nd time)
Falling apart rapidly. 70 mph, 985 mbars. Where is everyone? Leeboy100 Beware Lane’s Fury. 02:40, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * School started back up this week for me, so I haven't had as much time to post on here. Anyway, glad to know that Lane is being torn apart by shear, though it is a bit of a double sword as Ryan mentioned.  Send Help Please (talk) 02:57, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, Maui and the islands surrounding it are getting the brunt of Lane's last-second heavy rainfall as we speak. With that said, Lane might not even make it past today if he continues to get rapidly sheared apart. Ryan1000 04:50, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised Lane weakened so quickly! That lessens the fear of devastation in Hawaii. However, they are still being flooded at the moment and they shouldn't come out unscathed. Hopefully no one is killed from the flooding heavy rains. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:13, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 65 mph, expected to be post-tropical by the weekend. Hawaii got away from the dangerous winds, but it is clear that the islands were not able to dodge Lane's massive precipitation. Parts of Maui are now under flash flood warning. Virtually, the entire Big Island is under flash flood warning. 42 inches have been recorded in one station. If this continues, Lane will surpass Hiki as Hawaii's wettest, and if things go from bad to worse, Harvey's record just exactly a year ago may be broken by Lane too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:36, August 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * Actually, scratch what I said before, the worst of Lane's precipitation didn't move over Maui overnight like it appeared it would, but it went due east instead, and now literally the entire Big Island is getting drenched by Lane's dense moisture. And since Mauna Loa and Kea are extremely high, the rain could go downhill from the slopes of the two volcanoes and cause extreme flooding in certain low-lying coastal areas, not just Hilo, and cause heavy mudslides too. Fortunately, no one was kiled yet, but this could be among Hawaii's costliest hurricanes, maybe even rivaling Iniki, when all the flooding is said and done. Ryan1000 12:11, August 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * This is a scary storm, almost on the level of Harvey. I hope the people of Hawaii have prepared for this storm. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 14:45, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * PS: Hurricanes Harvey and Lane existed exactly one year apart. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 14:46, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * "tropical storm? i steh going thru one tropical depression :( dey always ask what u faka to hurricane lane but never howz u faka :( u guys hear dat siren das my mating call hou rahjaaah"
 * i love dis faka lol yessuh lane tropical lane on twittah u fakaz --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:26, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also, more importantly, Lane texted me and he told me to tell you this:
 * "u fakaz follow me on twittah"
 * Had to let you know that. --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:41, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

Lane remains a TS but winds are now down to 60 mph. TS Warning for Big Island has been discontinued. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:43, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * lane: "help me dis faka finna be struggling wit tropical depression very soon, deez fakas won't help no 1 brah waa, at least I made historeh brah" --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:45, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

I don't think it was a good idea to discontinue the TS warning for the Big Island, because although Lane's tropical storm force windfield is away from the island, Lane made one final blowup of thunderstorms over the past 4 hours and it's moving east towards the Big Island and Maui again, so they're probably in store for one last dose of flooding rains from Lane, and flooding rains are still a tropical storm threat. After that thunderstorm activity gets sheared away from the center, Lane will probably dissipate. Ryan1000 16:26, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * New intermediate advisory released: 60 mph/995 mb. Lane is now the 4th wettest tropical cyclone (hurricane/TS/TD) to affect the U.S., behind 2017's Harvey, 1950's Hiki and 1978's Amelia; 45 inches of rain recorded so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:52, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oh wow, that's a massive amount of rainfall right there. Let's hope the rain stops soon. Wikipedia's season effects table still lists damage and deaths as "unknown", but at this point it's probably inevitable that we will see at least a death from Lane and it could perhaps go down as one of the costliest Hawaiian systems on record. Fingers crossed the death toll does not rise a lot in the coming days... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:56, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

Lane's circulation is now completely exposed as the last of his thunderstorms are being sheared east towards the Big Island, and he will probably dissipate very soon. Still, with that much rainfall, I'd be surprised if there isn't extensive damage from this hurricane, and Lane could be one of Hawaii's costliest disasters when all is said and done. The only bit of good news (I suppose) is that the majority of Lane's flooding and impacts in Hawaii were on the Big Island, which has only 13% of Hawaii's population, mostly in Hilo. If Lane took a track between what the Euro and the GFS/HWRF forecasted before, he could've struck Oahu as a sizeable hurricane and been much more destructive. Ryan1000 05:05, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

Finally down to 40 mph. Lane will die out soon. Hopefully the rainfall did not cause Harvey-like damage. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:09, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * wow faka, wat a week n a half it bean brah --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 13:26, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lane is incredibly close to breaking Hiki's rainfall record: 51.81 inches in Mountainview, Hawaii. He currently stands as the third wettest tropical cyclone in US history.  Send Help Please (talk) 14:19, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lane
Now a TD. Lane is not long for this world. Send Help Please (talk) 14:58, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Going down fast, he'll probably be out tonight. Ryan1000 17:48, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

Lane is still holding on... 35 mph/1007 mbars. Should die out soon though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:29, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lane (3rd time)
Stubborn little turd, isn't he? Back up to 35 kts/1004 mbar, not bad at all for being under 40 kts of shear. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:02, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * guess who's back, back again, laney's back, tell a friend!  ma🅱🅱a 🅱ia, here he goes again, my my, how can he resist wind shear? BRUH DIS BOI GOT NO CHILL, WHICH OF YALL THINK HE FINNA CROSS THE DATE LINE? anyway, lane will be remembered as the thiccest hurricane of 2018 epac season. he be T H I C C 😩💦💦😍😍😍❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️😘😘😘😘😘😘😂🔫  ¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:39, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * lolwut Send Help Please  (talk) 16:53, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

Is Lane trying to do a Genevieve here... if he does pull something like that, I will be beyond impressed. I hope Big Island is already recovering from Lane though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:50, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lane (2nd time)
Back down to TD status. Also, Lane might have just broken  Hiki's rainfall record. Send Help Please (talk) 02:59, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Ugh...just die already, will ya Laney? Ryan1000 04:27, August 28, 2018 (UTC)

Oh. He's still there, as of 11AM. 1007 mb, 35 mph. This is becoming frustrating though... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:07, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lane is somehow still producing convective bursts to the north and northeast of the center, so I daresay he'll be around for a while longer. He'll get shredded completely in about 2 days though as he gets absorbed by an extratropical low to the north. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:33, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lane is still hanging on as a weak TD. Seems that he turned from Hiki/Harvey to Nadine/Genevieve in a matter of days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:23, August 28, 2018 (UTC)

Unbelievable. Lane is still alive. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:51, August 28, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lane
Lane has finally succumbed to shear and breathed his last, unless he pulls a full Genevieve on us. Send Help Please (talk) 03:06, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Say goodbye to the C5 that may potentially be retired due to Hawaiian impacts.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:08, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

About time. Still assessing damages in Hawaii, but overall damage might have been extensive with Lane's record rainfall in the islands. Ryan1000 04:47, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

AT LAST! Lane has been so resilient. Due to the record rainfall, it was possibly one of Hawaii's costliest storms on record. A retirement candidate for sure. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:44, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally. Now Lane can have his own archive here. What a storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:41, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: West of 97E
10/10, will not develop. I HOPE NONE OF THESE F-CKING WAVES DEVELOP. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 00:29, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Highly doubt this will ever become anything because upper-level winds will strike in only a day from now. Waste of time to write it up on the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:49, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * At this f-cking rate I'm going to lose my £50 F-CK OFF TROPICAL WAVES UNLESS YOU BECOME WALAKA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 12:59, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Can someone please reply? I am getting frankly pissed off that it looks likely that my favourite name will likely be a weak storm because of all the wind shear and cold water. Don't get me wrong, I love Hector, BUT LANE IS MY FAVOURITE NAME ON THE LIST AND I WANT IT TO BE A GOOD ONE. IF LANE IS WEAK WHICH IT LOOKS LIKE AT THIS POINT, THEN I'M GONNA F-CKING SMASH THE WINDOW. (Not literally but I'm getting pissed off now. I betted £50 on this name becoming a nice fishie.)--🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 18:58, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

This might become Walaka though. Currently 30/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:03, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * YOU BETTER BE F-CKING WALAKA OTHERWISE I'LL F-KING DEPORT YOU TO THE ATLANTIC WHERE IT'S DRY AS F-CKING RYE BREAD --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 19:04, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Keep talking like this and you'll see the hammer too.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:06, August 13, 2018 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Yeah, chill out. 50 pounds isn't a huge deal (unlike betting thousands of pounds). Anyway, seems like this is eating my words from earlier. Up as an invest on Tropical Tidbits. This could actually become a brief depression if it continues organizing like this. However, it enters cooler waters tomorrow afternoon. It'll really have to organize fast it it wants to become something. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:54, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * and I hope it doesn't. --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 23:59, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Some models take this to be Walaka, which has been waiting since the end of 2016 lol.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:39, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 60/90, and more models are in favor of this becoming a TS in the next couple of days. Send Help Please (talk) 10:26, August 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Um, that's 97E, not this one. This is at 10/10 and no longer expected to do anything. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:49, August 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * WAHOO~ --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:50, August 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oops. That's what I get for trying to make posts early in the morning I guess. Send Help Please  (talk) 18:06, August 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:25, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one vanished quickly. lol ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:53, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

94C.INVEST
This one is at the southwest of Hawaii. 10/20 as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. When will Walaka ever come? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:52, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

CPac named storms aren't supposed to form that often (2015 was an exception as it was a super El Nino, but this year's El Nino may not be as strong as that of 2015). But fret not, it's only August 16, we still have about 2 and a half (active) months of the EPac season left. And having 12 named storms in the EPac proper right now is well ahead of schedule. Not as active as the record pace of 1985 or 1992, but still a good pace nonetheless. Ryan1000 03:48, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

Nah, I’d rather believe that the name Walaka is cursed and that the world will spontaneously combust if a storm is ever given that name. :P Leeboy100 Hello!! 04:40, August 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hopefully Walaka comes soon enough. 😛 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:13, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Several Hundred Miles SW of Baja
Up on the 5-day outlook at 0/20. Miriam anyone? I can't believe we're getting this far into the naming list already! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:13, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * I don't think Mariam would be that strong tbh --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 12:17, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 10/20. Will only develop gradually, but could be Miriam next week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:48, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 10/10. Starting to doubt development. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:20, August 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * I'm hoping this somehow survives to the CPac and becomes Walaka. At least it would break the monotony there. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:42, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Send Help Please (talk) 19:27, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Several Hundred Miles SW of Baja II
Another AOI appears, currently at 0/20  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:26, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * I can see this becoming Miriam next week. But you never know... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:30, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

0/40 now. This may become Miriam, while the other one may become Walaka. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:48, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/40. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:39, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/50. A TD may come from this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:51, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * Likely to become Miriam in the next several days. And maybe even another major? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:17, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * mariam: "u faka lane i will be bigger dan you betch"
 * lane: "no u faka will flop just like gilma, i left cold water in ur path so u can't be like lane, no.1 faka of all of hawaii so say big a$$ mahalo to no.1 faka, lane!" --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:32, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

20/60 now. This is organizing fairly quickly. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:57, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Up to 40/70, Miriam is on its way now. Also invested. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:08, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E
Upgraded to a TD, and forecast to become Hurricane Miriam in the next few days. This will almost certainly end up as a fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:07, August 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this storm will probably move towards the north late in the forecast period due to steering currents, like how Pauline of 1985 turned north before affecting Hawaii, unlike Lane. Ryan1000 13:07, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * wow! mariam formed! now, let's see who wins: mariam vs norman? will either win or will it end up as a draw (like the ksi vs logan paul match?) I'm rooting for the normie norman tbh --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 13:27, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Miriam
Miriam is here with 45-mph winds. Rapid intensification is a possibility in the days ahead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:53, August 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 60 mph and 1000 mbars. NHC says that quick changes in Miriam's intensity are hard to forecast since Miriam has such a tiny circulation; TS force winds only go 45 miles away from the center of circulation, and it's quite possible Miriam could explode into a major hurricane for some time before weakening as she turns north late in the forecast period. Ryan1000 13:05, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * this bih related to john and fabio bruh --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:43, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

65 mph/999 mbars. Miriam is nearly a hurricane now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:03, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pressure down by 1 mbar, winds the same. Should be a hurricane by tomorrow, or later today  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:49, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

Miriam's small size is a double-edged sword; while she could RI fast upon existing in favorable conditions, Miriam could also weaken considerably even if only minor changes happen in the environment around her. Miriam lost a bit of organization yesterday, but she's back up and kicking today and may become a hurricane soon, and maybe even a major before she turns north. Ryan1000 12:42, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Miriam is still at 65 mph. Hopefully she is not following Ileana and Kristy's footsteps. Please don't bottle it up. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:21, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Miriam's LLCC is now exposed due to shear. Satellite estimates are down to 50kt. This storm is being quite a disappointment. ChowKam2002 (talk) 19:10, August 28, 2018 (UTC)

Also, what I find interesting is that this storm's name is also the name of my sister. Heh. My sister is better than *this*. ChowKam2002 (talk) 19:10, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to 60/1000, and forecast to peak as TS, and weakening in the long run. This is probably a fail.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:05, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Disappointing...I expected this could get stronger, but it looks like Miriam may fail on us this time, just like how Kristy fell short. Ryan1000 04:47, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now no longer forecast to become a hurricane. 🙁 Let's hope it still does what Kristy didn't do, and that is to peak at at least 75 mph. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:47, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Won't be official until the next NHC advisory, but Tropical Tidbits says this is finally a 65 kt/992 mbar hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:11, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Miriam
Became a hurricane at the same time as Norman, and should be entering CPAC basin shortly. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:01, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * So this managed to become a hurricane after all...not bad, though I don't think Miriam will get too much stronger at this point, before she turns north in a few days over less favorable conditions. Ryan1000 21:14, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Well ESE of Hawaii
One more AOI has appeared on the NHC's 5-day TWO to the west of the above one. This is at 0/20 too, and hopefully will become Walaka out in the middle of nowhere. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:00, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope for this to become Walaka as well. We've been waiting for that storm for so long now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

0/30 now. May become Walaka or Akoni or even Norman, depending on whether or not 95C's TS-force winds gets recognized by CPHC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:51, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back to 0/20. The wait for Miriam and Walaka continues... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:51, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/10 now, will likely just die for good. Why does it seem like every time an AOI forms that could become Walaka, and we put our hopes up, it just withers away and fails miserably each time? -.- ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

Finally removed from the EPac TWO. The drought continues; the very excruciating wait for Walaka is still going on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:56, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

95C.INVEST
And the interesting blob to the east of Lane is now 95C. Not appeared on the TWO just yet though. Kiewii 19:52, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * A buoy was in the way and it found near TS winds. Will probably be snubbed by CPHC though.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  06:31, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * If that verifies, the situation just got from bad to worse. Hawaii – especially Big Island – might receive more rainfall. Amazingly, 95C only appears on the SSD page of NOAA; it is not even included in Tropical Tidbits as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:57, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * lane u faka stop destroying da aloha state and making ur own invest u faka --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 11:57, August 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, I wonder if this was actually a brief TC but not noticed as one by any agency... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:24, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

I don't know if this is still on, but this thing got snubbed by almost all weather agencies. This won't be anything at all. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:37, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * lane: "told u fakaz i can make me own babiez widout no man, brah no faka can compare to me, not even iniki the old faka who should go bakk to 1992 lol" --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:30, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

Gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:51, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Baja/500 miles south of Acapulco
New AOI, 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:59, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * will dis faka form? nah --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:28, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

And it's gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:54, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

Another AOI, I guess? Currently 10/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:54, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Same AOI as the above, actually. If you check out the archives, both the 0/20 system and this one were low pressure areas several hundred miles south of Acapulco. Due to time proximity, they just can't be separate systems at all. Perhaps you got confused because of the sudden jump in percentage? Also invested, 20/60, and will most likely become Norman. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:08, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope I just got confused. I hope the AOI south of Baja just moved eastwards to become 500 miles south of Acapulco. Anyway, Norman may come out of this one, as it is now 40/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:06, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * New update: 60/90. It is now almost certain that Norman will form before this month ends. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:07, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * norman gonna bust out mariam big time, much like jake paul did to deji --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 13:28, August 26, 2018 (UTC)

If we get Norman from this before the month ends, we'll have a 6-storm August. Not bad for the EPac (the record is 8 in 2009, which was also an El Nino year). Ryan1000 17:48, August 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * This would actually make 7 August storms; 10E formed on the last day of July, but became Hector on the first day of August. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:56, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

I was only counting named storms forming in the month in that statement, so I wasn't counting Hector since he technically formed at the end of July. But if you count him, that would be second to 2009 for the most storms in August (or any month, for that matter) in one season (although it would tie the record for the EPac proper, since one of the storms in August 2009 (Maka) formed in the CPac). Ryan1000 03:59, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:18, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * 90E at 90/90. Please form now... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:53, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one should hopefully be Norman. Models take this to a hurricane as well.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:51, August 27, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E
Now a tropical depression 35/1004, and also forecast to be Hurricane Norman in the coming days. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     14:57, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's expected to turn south late in the forecast period though, so this could be another long-term threat to Hawaii, unless it turns north like Miriam is expected to. Ryan1000 15:36, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to reach at least 100 mph. Norman is here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:19, August 28, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Norman
Now officially named Norman by the NHC and forecasted to become a major hurricane on the long run. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     03:03, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * The southward turn late in the forecast period is concerning for Hawaii down the road...while the GFS keeps this out at sea, the Euro (which forecasted Lane's track correctly) now takes Norman on a collision course with the Big Island in ten days...as a 984 mbar category 1 or 2 hurricane. It's still a long ways out but it could be something to watch out for. Ryan1000 05:01, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * This could be problematic for Hawaii in the distant long run... here comes yet another storm threatening them. Norman should be our next C4+, and I maybe won't even be surprised if it can pull off C5. I can't believe the EPac is already at the "N" storm...and August is not even over yet! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a 65 kt/987 mbar hurricane according to Tropical Tidbits, though it won't be official until the next advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:12, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Norman
Same time as Miriam, this got upgraded to a hurricane, but more intense than Miriam at 75/987. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:02, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Baja II
Oh, another 0/20 AOI, this time overlapping with 90E (which is now at 90/90). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:53, August 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not too sure if this can be anything due to its proximity to 90E. It could be absorbed, but otherwise, not sure.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:51, August 27, 2018 (UTC)


 * The EPac conveyor doesn't stop! This AOI is at 0/30 now. I don't think this will be affected much by 90E; it's not on the 2-day GTWO yet, which means it will probably form after 90E develops and moves out of the area. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:37, August 28, 2018 (UTC)

What else could you expect from a strong El Nino event? For some perspective, if this becomes Olivia before September 10, it would form before Odile of 2014 and then be the earliest "O" named storm in the East Pacific Proper since 1992's Orlene, which formed in August not long before Iniki. At this rate, it's very possible we could reach the X, Y, and Z names on the list. 2015 would've also done that if the CPac didn't steal all the waves and get its most active season. Ryan1000 04:47, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * The EPac is astonishingly active this year! El Nino must be to blame. I also won't be that surprised at this point to see the EPac reach the "X" name, and even exhausting the list is a slight possibility! This system is 0/40 BTW. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:53, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Was at 0/50 before, and now at 10/60.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:23, August 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Seems like a potential candidate for Olivia. But let me ask, STRONG el nino? Keep in mind we're not even in el nino yet. I wouldn't make premature statements. Regardless, models make this a moderate tropical storm in the long run. - VileMaster (talk) 20:05, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Well, ok, maybe not super like 2015-16, but @Vilemaster: we have a better than even likelihood of seeing an El Nino this fall and winter season (I believe NOAA recently predicted a 60-70% chance of that), if we haven't already met the threshold. There are pockets of above-normal SST's near South America that may be showing this transition, not to mention the fairly high level of TC activity we've seen so far in the North Pacific. As for the Atlantic, unless the AOI over Africa becomes Florence by Friday, 2018 will be the least active August in the Atlantic since 1997, which had no storms in the month. Yeah we had two July hurricanes, but they weren't very strong or long-lived, and the ACE so far is below average for this time of year in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 21:09, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Seven storms have formed and we might as well add this section now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:16, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's EastPac and CPac retirement expectations

 * Aletta - 4% - A fishspinner but showed us how to start a season. 4% because it peaked as a C4.
 * Bud - 4% - Also 4% because of its Category 4 status. Great follow-up to Aletta, but juat like Bud's predecessor, it caused no effects to land, so that won't merit any realistic chance of retirement for Bud too.
 * Carlotta - 5% - Affected Mexico and caused some problems, but no fatalities were recorded so I think Carlotta will be back in 2024.
 * Daniel - 0% - Danfail it is, as Send Help Please called it. Broke the streak of strong hurricanes that bore the same name. Yikes.
 * Emilia - 0% - Another forgettable storm.
 * Fabio - 2% - For peaking as a Category 2. Forecast to become a major, yet Fabio bottled it a la Hilary 2017.
 * Gilma - 0% - Just like what Send Help Please also said, Failma. The Failicia of this season along with Danfail, so far.
 * Hector - 4.5% - Remained at the south of Hawaii, crossed the 3 Pacific basins, but a fishspinner. Hector will be back in 2024, but this storm will always be remembered for its longevity, and for almost reaching Category 5 status.
 * Ileana - 0.5% - No, just no. That .5 is for being a strong TS, but realistically, Ileana will be back in 2024.
 * John - 2% - Almost became a major, but did not cause significant impacts.
 * Kristy - 0.75% - For almost reaching hurricane status.
 * Lane - TBD - Became the first CPac C5 since Ioke, but this is not looking good for Hawaii, so far.

That's it.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:16, July 31, 2018 (UTC). Last revised by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:43, August 22, 2018 (UTC).

joestar's OAP home preddies
yare yare daze (talk) 17:39, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta (0%): "haha look at me i believe i can fly i believe i can touch the sky no motherf-cker can match me ahahahaha" grade: A
 * Bud (0%): "haha i'm gonna beat you! all years before 2006 sucked! now i'm finally a cat 4! i made landfall unlike that dutch twit aletta who is a coward!" grade: A-
 * Carlotta (0%):  "mummy i wanna go to mexico like patwicia" grade: E
 * Daniel (0%): "zzzzzz... damn... zzzzzzz" grade: F
 * Emilia (0%): "all 1994 cat 5s for sh-t tropical storms in 2018" grade: F
 * Fabio (0%): "i am trying to eat more to be a category 5 but i'm not gaining any weight" grade: C
 * Gilma (0%): "SMOKE SHEAR EVERYDAY!" EVERYDAY!" rip in kill 3sexy5felicia 2018-2018 never 5get  grade: U
 *  Hector Mr Worldwide (weeb%): this boi travel to asia to get some cute anime girls like shan shan uwu grade: A* (pronounced "a star" bc that is an a+ in bongland where i'm from)
 * Ileana (dinner%): was made in the kitchen for a hungry boi grade: F('ood')
 * John (hungry%): he bravo'd on ileana grade: C('annibal')
 * Kristy (0%): john controlled her and taking her to the middle of nowhere. ofc not. worse than thought smh grade: D
 *  Jane Lane (75%): u fakaz got blown by de one and only faka lane rip grade: ( A*) T H I C C BOI 😩💦💦😍😍😍❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️😘😘😘😘😘😘😂🔫 

Dylan's predictions

 * Aletta: 0% - A beautiful, intense, harmless kick-off to the season.
 * Bud: 1% - Another gorgeous storm to observe over open water, with fortunately minimal effects on land.
 * Carlotta: 2% - Was more of a nuisance for Mexico than expected.
 * Daniel: no
 * Emilia: 0% - Not an epic fail, not much of a winner either. It sort of just existed.
 * Fabio: 0% - 🎶leeeet doooown aaaaand haaaaanging aroooouuund🎵
 * Gilma: 0% - Worse flop than Daniel in terms of intensity but at least it was resilient in its post-TS depression stage.
 * Hector: 0% - Gud storm was gud. I'll defer to Steve and Ryan's explanations as to why.
 * Ileana: <1% 3% - John murdered her and consumed her remains <death metal plays in background> before she could do much to Mexico.
 * Bumping up a tad &mdash; Ileana is the first storm of the season to cause fatalities, with a death toll of 4 thus far. Fingers crossed it doesn't rise any higher.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:20, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * John: 0% - The ends probably didn't justify the means, but by preventing Ileana from being any worse for Mexico, John arguably helped more than he harmed.
 * Kristy: -1% - You can take a negative percent as punishment for stalling just below hurricane status for a full day, only to abruptly collapse into nothing. Poor show, Kristy.
 * Lane: TBD% - Still active. We'll see whether this becomes a threat to Hawaii down the road.

Roy's Retirement Prediction
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta ( 0% ) - A nice harmless fishspinner. Obviously this won't be going.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud ( 0.001% ) - While it did affected land at the end of its life, this was also pretty much a fishspinner
 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta ( 1% ) - While weak, it has came close to Mexico, but no deaths and damage were reported.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel ( 0% ) - A weak failicia that untimately was a name stealer. Unimpressed
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia ( 0% ) - A rather weak, but a nice fishspinner
 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio ( 0% ) - Nice fishspinning hurricane that broke the TS streak, but failed to reach major hurricane status. Sigh
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma ( 0% ) - Same as Daniel, except weaker, and only lasted 6 hours as a TS. Name-stealer.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector ( 0% ) - An impressive, long-lasting tri-basin crosser major hurricane that stayed away from land, but also failed to reach C5 status
 *  Ileana ( 3% ) - Didn't last long before being absorbed by John, but unfortunately also caused 4 fatalities
 * <font color="#ffe775">John ( 0% ) - Pretty much a fish that failed to become a major hurricane
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kristy ( 0% ) - Same as above, but instead failed to become a hurricane
 * <font color="#ff6060">LANE ( 50% ) - Became the first C5 in the EPAC/CPAC since Patricia in 2015, but also severely affected Hawaii, became the wettest tropical cyclone of the state and the second wettest in the US behind Harvey 2017. Damage and deaths are unknown at the moment, but seeing as how uncommon it is for a EPAC name to be retired (sometimes random), I'll give the retirement chance in a flip of a coin
 * <font color="#00faf4">Miriam (???) - Currently active
 * <font color="#00faf4">Norman (???) - Currently active

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions   02:36, August 1, 2018 (UTC) Last updated 03:25, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA


 * <font color="#5ebaff">One-E :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Gets credit for its formation before the start of the season. Still a fail, nonetheless.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta :
 * Retirement: 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A - A nice early season powerful hurricane. As a bonus, no one was affected at all.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud :
 * Retirement: 1% - Struck Baja, but without doing much harm. Caused a moisture plume to reach the southwestern U.S., and that wasn't harmful either. Impacts are too light for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#0F0">A- - Another nicely strong hurricane that reached the bare minimum for C4. Impacts are not enough to affect the grade.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta :
 * Retirement: 2% - Caused torrential rainfall in the area of Mexico that it affected. Impacts are not enough to even think about retirement, though.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Strong tropical storm that affected land. At least it was not a total failure like the below storm was.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel :
 * Retirement: 0% - Out to sea, no one was affected.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Laughable failure that only lasted 2 days and peaked at no more than 45 mph/1003 mbar. Danfail will be remembered as a complete nothingburger. 😂


 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia :
 * Retirement: 0% - Another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - That very active June was a bit more about quantity than quality. Reached 60 mph, but I don't care for this boring storm.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio :
 * Retirement: 0% - Yet another out-to-sea system.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - A strong C2 usually doesn't get this low of a grade. But the story is that Fabio's grade really suffered because it was expected to become a major hurricane, but flunked the mark by just 5 mph! In fact, it had potential to RI to reach C4 or possibly even C5. A major disappointment you were, Fabio.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma :
 * Retirement: 0% - Also out to sea.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Even worse than Danfail, and was a TS for only 6 measly hours. Gilfail was one of the worst, and most laughable, name-stealers ever! It did last a few days in total, which is the only thing that prevents it from being Z-.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Nine-E


 * Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - It had potential to last even longer than it did. At least it didn't steal a name. Still a pathetic failure though.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector :
 * Retirement: 0% - Despite its long track, it stayed out to sea and no fatalities or damage were reported at all.
 * Grading: <font color="#055">EO - Oh boy, where do I start. It crossed THREE basins, the first to do so since Genevieve in 2014. Also, it broke the record for most consecutive days as a major hurricane and most hours as a C4 in the northeastern Pacific. Except for dangerous surf in Hawaii, this did not harm anyone at all! Hector has earned its status as an extraordinarily outstanding storm! The only thing preventing this from being EO+, my absolute highest grade, is that it stayed below C5 unlike John '94 (a relatively similar storm).


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ileana :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">6% - Unfortunately proved to be deadly. 🙁 Highly unlikely for retirement though.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Did its best in the face of John. However, they did forecast a hurricane once.


 * <font color="#ffe775">John :
 * Retirement: 0% - I believe the only impacts were high surf.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - Pulled a Fabio by flunking major status. And shame on him for being a cannibal.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Kristy :
 * Retirement: 0% - Nope.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - It had potential to become a hurricane, but failed by 5 mph.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Lane :
 * Retirement: <font color="#F30">65% - Preliminary estimate... Record rainfall has occurred in Hawaii, but damages are still unclear as of now. Likely will be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#055">EO - Absolutely amazing storm that became the C5 that Hector never became, and was resilient in the end. Unfortunately, Hawaiian impacts prevent it from getting EO+.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Miriam :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Norman :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 06:00, August 29, 2018 (UTC))

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Here's my thoughts on retirements so far: That'll suffice. Ryan1000 04:44, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - A great way to start the season, and her strongest incarnation to date as well.
 * Bud - 1% - Like Aletta, this is the strongest incarnation of Bud to date, but his Baja landfall brought minimal effects at most.
 * Carlotta - 2% - This was to Bud as Carlos was to Blanca in 2015, a slightly worse storm but still probably won't be retired.
 * Daniel - 0% - It's a shame that Daniel, one of our traditional EPac major fishspinners, flopped this time around...try again in 2024.
 * Emilia - 0% - Fared slightly better than Daniel but was still unimpressive overall.
 * Fabio - 0% - Reminds me of Hilary last year. He failed to meet expectations, but his large size held him back.
 * Gilma - 0% - Lasted slightly longer than Daniel but failed worse than he did by intensity.
 * Hector - 0% - Was an absolutely amazing storm to track. It lasted for the most consecutive days as a major hurricane on record in the Pacific while east of the dateline, at 7.75 days, beating Norbert of 1984, and racked up the 4th highest ACE of any Pacific hurricane while east of the dateline as well, all while not causing any known damage or deaths on land. My favorite storm of the season.
 * Ileana - 4% - Despite being eaten by John, Ileana unfortunately still killed 4 people in Mexico, with some minor damage to boot.
 * John - 0% - Fishie, and failed to be a major; consider that punishment for eating your little sister.
 * Kristy - 0% - It's a shame that Kristy fell short of hurricane intensity; hopefully she can be upgraded in reanalysis.
 * Lane - 45% - Lane became Hawaii's wettest hurricane on record, narrowly surpassing Hiki of 1950, and caused considerable flood damage in Hilo and surrounding areas on the Big Island. He probably wasn't as destructive as Iniki or Iwa, but was probably worse than Iselle. I can't say for certain if Lane will be retired or not, but it's definitely a possibility that can't be overlooked.
 * Miriam - ?? - Still active, but forecast to turn north of Hawaii down the road.
 * Norman - ?? - Still active, but could possibly hit Hawaii sometime late next week. Something to keep our eyes on.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
I'll jump on the bandwagon and add mine too.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * One-E – grade  D . Couldn't do much in the face of shear, but gave us an early start.
 * Aletta – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Amazing powerful June fishspinner. Well done for our first ever major hurricane Aletta.
 * Bud – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Touched C4 but rapidly weakened immediately after. Thankful for that however as it made landfall on Baja California not long after, and didn't cause much damage.
 * Carlotta – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Intensified surprisingly quickly close to land despite being forecast to fizzle. Not much damage reported, so that's all good.
 * Daniel – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Historically Daniel was the name of a long line of fishspinning majors. Completely flopped this year with its weakest ever incarnation. Boo.
 * Emilia – grade  E , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Chose the wrong time and place to form and got burdened by shear.
 * Fabio – grade  C , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Great fishspinner, but lost points for peaking just under major hurricane status. :(
 * Gilma – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Utterly pathetic name thief. Probably doesn't even deserve a grade.
 * Nine-E – grade  E . See Emilia.
 * Hector – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Powerful tri-basin crosser that managed to miss Hawaii. Well done, Hector. Definitely best storm so far.
 * Ileana – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Surprised us all by spinning up so quickly and beating out the more hopeful AOIs (John and Kristy). Could have become a hurricane (albeit a dangerous one, given her proximity to Mexico) if not for John's cannibal tendencies.
 * John – grade  C , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Gets points for being interesting by cannibalizing Kristy, but pulled a Fabio and flunked major hurricane status. :(
 * Kristy – grade  D , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Screwed up by peaking just under hurricane intensity; grade may rise if she's upgraded post-season.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 14:18, August 16, 2018 (UTC).

Harvey's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#666">0% or <font color="#666">N/A, <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9% , <font color="#00FFFF">1-9% , <font color="#00D5D5">10-19% , <font color="#00A0A0">20-29% , <font color="#00A000">30-39% , <font color="#FFC800">40-49% , <font color="#FF8800">50-59% , <font color="#E80000">60-69% , <font color="#B40000">70-79% , <font color="#800000">80-89% , <font color="#000000">90-99% , <font color="#000080">100% 

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 


 * <font color="#5ebaff">One-E :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F - Mostly a fail, but it did form in the early season.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - This storm did not affect land.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A - This storm gets a high grade due to the rapid deepening and the great satellite imagery at peak intensity. This is the strongest incarnation of this storm to date.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud :
 * Retirement: <font color="#AFFFFF">0.7% - It did struck Baja late in its life as a weak TS, however impacts are too minimal for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A- - Like the above storm, it was a powerful early storm that was the strongest of its incarnation, however this one was slightly weaker.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta :
 * Retirement: <font color="00FFFF">1% - Caused torrential rainfall in Mexico. Impacts are minimal and do not affect the retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - This would become the first of many weak storms in the season. Impacts aren't memorable enough to affect the grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fish storm.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Just about every other incarnation of this storm was a fishspinner that reached major hurricane status, but this one broke the chain and decided to fail miserably. Ugh...
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Another weak fishspinner. Another fail, but it didn't fail too hard.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Yet another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C - Well, it could have been higher, but it's only because it failed even though it was expected to be a major. And it was 5 mph away from becoming one, and might have even had the chance to become a C4 or possibly even C5. I would have put it lower, but at least it did reach a high intensity.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fish-spinning fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#300">Z- - It barely lasted more than two days, and was only a TS for 6 hours. In other words, it didn't try at all.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Nine-E


 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Another weak depression. At least it didn't steal a name like the above storm did.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Impact was minimal.
 * Grading: S - This is hands down the best storm of the season. It crossed all three basins, the last time this happened was with Genevieve in 2014. It also broke the record for most consecutive days as a major hurricane and most hours as a C4 in the northeastern Pacific. Best of all, it didn't harm me at all (I live in Hawaii FYI). C5 or not, it still earned the highest grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ileana :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">3% - 4 deaths. Still unlikely for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#9F0">C+ - It did its best, unfortunately eaten up by John. It could have been a hurricane.
 * <font color="#ffe775">John :
 * Retirement: 0% - Only high surf.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - While it did get some points for eating up a storm, it flunked major status.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kristy :
 * Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - It could have become a hurricane, but it failed.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Lane :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00a0a0">21% - Well, this is a hard one. Lane was the third wettest tropical cyclone to hit Hawaii, bringing 52 inches. It didn't really affect me too much, which is good. This grade however is not final as the deaths and damage are unknown.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A - Lane was an impressive storm to say for the least. It did become the first Category 5 hurricane in 3 years and the first C5 in the Central Pacific since 2006, but unfortunately, it caused Hawaii (which is where I live in, BTW) to get very paranoid with the threatening of a potential landfall, but it didn't make landfall (which is good). The combination of the storm being impressive while threatening me at the same time makes the grade uncertain, but for now I'll give it an A.

Notes: Harveycane (Talk |  Contributions)  07:52, August 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Percentages/grades in italics indicate temporary ratings and would have yet to change.

Lee’s retirement predictions
Leeboy100 Hello!! 07:18, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta- 0%: Nice harmless Category 4 to start the season. However, no impacts= no retirement.
 * Bud-1%: Another Category 4. Made landfall in Baja, but didn’t do much. It’s staying.
 * Carlotta-2%: Like Bud, it caused some impacts to land. Still, also like Bud, it’s staying.
 * Daniel-0%: Well, it existed. That’s about all I can say.
 * Emilia-0%: Ehhhh.
 * Fabio-0%: Was a nice system to look at for a few days.
 * Gilma-0%: Absolutely not.
 * Hector- 0%: Absolutely amazing storm, and my favorite of the year so far. Became a really strong Cat 4, and lasted quite a while, not harming anyone in the process. First storm to cross all three Northern Pacific basins since Genevieve. It may be upgraded to a Cat 5 in post analysis, but since neither Jose or Joaquin were, I won’t hold my breath. No impacts doesn’t get it a chance at retirement, but I’ll give him this (⭐️) for being such a great storm.
 * Ileana- 5%: Unfortunately, I have to revise my previous prediction. Ileana did manage to cause 4 deaths before becoming lunch for Hurricane John. Still, I don’t see her going anywhere.
 * John- 0%: Other than completely murdering another storm, John didn’t do much. He’s staying.
 * Kristy- 0%: Didn’t do much. Staying
 * Lane- Currently active Expected to bring impacts to Hawaii. Currently a high-end category 4, but will weaken before it gets to Hawaii. Lane, behave.

IbAHAn1829tree's Name Retirement Chances
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:20, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * C4 MH Aletta - 0% : C4 fishspinner, did nothing to land.
 * C4 MH Bud - 0% : Another C4 storm, hit land but did nothing.
 * TS Carlotta - 0% : A TS, hit land but did nothing.
 * TS Daniel - 0% : Not sure why this name was even used for this storm.
 * TS Emilia - 0% : Another TS that did nothing.
 * C2 H Fabio - 0% : A C2 that failed to reach major hurricane intensity and did nothing.
 * TS Gilma - 0% : Epic fail, even worse than Felicia '15.
 * C4 MH Hector - 0% : Almost became a C5 and existed in all three North Pacific basins, but did nothing.
 * TS Ileana - 0.1% : Sadly caused the deaths of 4 people before being eaten by Hurricane John.
 * C2 H John - 0% : Failed to become a C3, ate TS Ileana.
 * TS Kristy - 0% : Did nothing.
 * C5 LANE - 50% : Caused major flooding on the Big Island of Hawaii. The damage totals have yet to be found, plus I think they'll get rid of this name anyway.
 * TS Miriam - 0% : So far failed to become a hurricane.
 * Possible TS/H Norman - 0% : Will become another fishspinner.

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Grade colors:  S ,  A+ ,  A ,  A- ,  B ,  C ,  D ,  E ,  F ,  Failippe 

Note: Impact to land has no affect on grade, aside from S rank, which is reserved for fishspinners.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">One-E : Grade:  E  - Retirement: 0% - Forgettable TD, only saved from an F by being a pre-season storm.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta : Grade:  A+  - Retirement: 0% - Defied predictions by exploding into a Cat. 4, showing Adrian how it's done.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud : Grade:  A  - Retirement: 0.1% - Did what Aletta did except slightly weaker and with minor land impacts.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlottta : Grade:  D  - Retirement: 1% - Hovered around the Mexican coast for a while, but impacts were thankfully not all that major.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danfail : Grade:  F  - Retirement: 0% - Historic major turned epic fail. Dissapointing.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia : Grade:  D  - Retirement: 0% - Not much to say about this one.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio : Grade:  C  - Retirement: 0% - Decent storm, but just barely missed Cat. 3 status despite predictions. Grade will go up if he attains major status on post-analysis.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Failma : Grade:  Failippe  - Retirement: 0% - It could've been just another forgettable TD, but it had to go and steal the name Gilma in the worst way possible. What a disgrace.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Nine-E : Grade:  F  - Retirement: 0% - It existed. NEXT!
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector : Grade:  S  - Retirement: 0% - Oh man, what a storm. It spent the longest consecutive time as a major in the history of the E Pac, racked up the 4th highest ACE in the history of the E Pac, crossed through 3 basins, and left Hawaii alone. Cat. 5 or no, Hector is definitely deserving of my highest grade, and is now one of my personal favorite storms of all time.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ileana : Grade  D (inner) - Retirement: 4% - Tried to become a hurricane, but her time was cut short by her big brother John. Unfortunately, she caused the deaths of 4 people.
 * <font color="#ffe775">John : Grade:  C (annibal) - Retirement: 0% - Missed major status, but I consider that karma for consuming Ileana. Not cool, John.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kristy : Grade:  D  - Retirement: 0% - Came closer to hurricane status than Ileana, but still failed.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Lane : Grade:  A+  - Retirement: ??? - Definitely an impressive storm, being the first Cat. 5 in the Pacific since Ioke, the second storm this season to have an ACE total over 40 units, and an impressive display of resilience in the face of high shear. However, he is kept from S rank from his impacts in Hawaii, having dumped the second highest amount of rain from a tropical cyclone in US history on the Big Island. The monetary damage from this could wind up being some of the worst Hawaii has ever seen, but I will reserve my retirement prediction until mofe estimates come out.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Miriam : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Norman : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.

More will be added as needed. Send Help Please (talk) 16:21, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Male "L" names (Potentially for Lane)
We're 12 storms down so far, but Lane is rapidly looking like a very dangerous threat to Hawaii, and it wouldn't be a stretch to say he could already be the 2018 EPac season's first serious retirement candidate. If Lane does cause notable effects to Hawaii over the coming days, what do you think will replace him? Here are some suggestions: My first choice would be Lucas, but Leo, Levi, Lance, and Laurence, among others, are good too. Ryan1000 20:50, August 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lucas
 * Luke
 * Leo(n)
 * Leonard(o)
 * Logan
 * Levi
 * Landon
 * Laurence
 * Lance
 * Lamar
 * Luciano

I kinda think something English and simple, like Lane himself, will be the replacement. Luke anyone? (Logan reminds me of Paul but sadly not something hurricane ppl will chose :/ also leonardo is nice, like dicaprio, and kendrick lamar. levi ackerman/strauss anyone?) most likely luke though. what about lander? I know a guy named lander irl... lance is literally lane with a c tbh --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:29, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * This may be jumping the gun, but my hat's in for either Lucas or Laurence. Send Help Please  (talk) 01:34, August 22, 2018 (UTC)

In my opinion, Lucas, Luke, and Landon could be a best fit for Lane's replacement, that is if Lane does some notable impacts for Hawaii. I got some other male "L" names: I honestly don't think any of the names I've listed would be a best fit, but those are some other male "L" names. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     02:23, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Liam
 * Lucius
 * Lionel
 * Linius
 * Leif
 * Lennon
 * Layton
 * Luigi (This would be funny having Mario and Luigi on the same basin)
 * Lucien


 * Forgot about Luigi, that would be a good pick too. Or Lucifer, but that's a bit intimidating, to say the least. Ryan1000 05:30, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * That would have to be one of my favorite potential replacements, honestly... can you just imagine the irony of a 40 mph epic fail named Lucifer? :D (or, indeed, how fitting it would be for a Category 5 Hurricane Lucifer to threaten land...)
 * In all seriousness though, my top 5 would have to be Lazlo, Luke, Luigi, Liam, and Lucifer, in that order. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 09:38, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lucas, Luke, Liam, or Luigi seem most likely for me. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:04, August 23, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
^This is the storm's peak intensity while it was located east of the Central Pacific, and the CPac TCR's on these storms will come out separately. In the CPac, Hector's operational peak was 155 mph and 936 mbars, and lasted until August 13 while east of the dateline, while Lane's CPac peak was 160 mph and 922 mbars.

^^Hector and Lane didn't dissipate on these dates, but moved into the CPac (and later WPac for Hector) basins.

Already we have our first TCR, its for One-E. Only change was that the pressure was raised to 1007, and One-E's duration was decreased by one day. -- Roy 25  23:11, July 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Aletta is out. No changes happened to her though. Ryan1000 14:17, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * do you want to put speeds in km/h for us non-americans or not --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 17:50, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sorry for the late reply, but the table wouldn't look very neat if we put in the winds in knots, mph and km/hr, since it's only so wide and every storm would then have 2 or more rows for it. It's better with just 1 row per storm the way it is. Ryan1000 14:20, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

Also, changed a few things on Hector, since the EPac and CPac TCR's will be separate, and Hector's peak while east of the CPac was lower. Ryan1000 16:08, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

Emilia is out. Not much change. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:30, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Only difference is that Emilia's duration was cut slightly short; operationally she was thought to dissipate on July 2nd, now it was on the 1st. Ryan1000 13:42, August 28, 2018 (UTC)