Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season

The Hall of Fame returns
Earlier today I promoted TG and Steve to new administrators and No. 1 Mobile to a rollback on Hurricane Wiki per the votes they received on the community vote page. Although he wasn't promoted, I talked with Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) on revitalizing Eric (SkyFury's) Hurricane Hall of Fame, which was started many years ago, but wasn't gone that far into and Eric hasn't posted since the end of the 2012 AHS forum, and he's probably retired by now. But with many more notable storms since Eric's (presumed) retirement, I'd like to start it up again and continue his legacy with inducting more storms into the Hall of Fame. Currently he has a record of storms from the Atlantic, East Pacific, and West Pacific, and hasn't gone into the other basins, but with many more users on the wiki since last year's historic AHS, I think we can get a good pool of voters for the hall of fame this year and in coming years. What do you guys think? Ryan1000 23:05, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Azores
And another non-tropical system may form. 0/20 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:02, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/40 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:02, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Increased to 0/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:52, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/60 now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:30, September 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0/70, but still not yet an invest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:08, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

It's not every day we see such a stark contrast between 2 and 5 day development. If this becomes (sub)tropical storm Kirk, it would be the 4th storm this year to form in the far north Atlantic. That's not something that happens very often. Ryan1000 12:46, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/70. This AOI and 99L are competing for Kirk. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:57, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/70. This is getting exciting... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:16, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/70, and still not invested. Say, when was the last time a season had six subtropical storms?  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:07, September 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * 60/70 but still not an invest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:02, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Finally been invested I think... 90L is up in this region on Tropical Tidbits. Now 60/60, but forecasted to be taken by a cold front by mid-week. This'll probably be a short-lived subtropical failure stealing the name "Leslie". I don't think there's EVER been a season with 6 subtropical storms. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:06, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Leslie
And here we have Debbie 4.0. 40 mph/1002 mb as of now. Send Help Please (talk) 08:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Leslie just made 2018 become the only season on record to have six subtropical storms. Also supposed to be short-lived, probably because of the nearby AOI.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:31, September 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * BRUH WE TIME TRAVELLIN TO 2002 -grabs flip phone and puts on britney- --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 22:01, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Leslie
Now on the verge of post-tropical transition. A complex transition is expected - baroclinic forcing will intensify the remnants to near-hurricane strength before it is expected to transition back into a subtropical storm, and hopefully it will become more significant in its second life. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:03, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie
Probably Leslie's first post-tropical cyclone transition, as the 0/70 AOI is expected to merge with Leslie. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm kinda wondering if the 0/70 AOI is Leslie. Expected to transition back into a subtropical cyclone a few days from now, by which time it is forecast to be near the upper bound of TS strength. Would be interesting to see Leslie come back as a fully tropical hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/70 is Leslie.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:52, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 40/90 now. Once Leslie regenerates she will be the 3rd storm to achieve that feat this year (after Beryl and Kirk). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:02, September 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * 90/90, and with hurricane-force winds. Expected to transition back to a (sub)tropical storm within the next 36 hours or so. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:35, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Leslie (2nd time)
Officially regenerated, and now forecast to move south while remaining as a storm with TS-winds. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:02, September 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Due to Leslie's abnormally large windfield, Bermuda could see TS force winds even if Leslie remains a far distance away. Also, the U.S. eastern seaboard needs to watch out, as Leslie could produce rip currents that could be life-threatening to surfers. Ryan1000 22:19, September 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Leslie's track seems unusual - I doubt I've ever tracked an Atlantic system going in that direction for a prolonged time (southwestward). It looks like it'll loop back to the east by midweek though. The track of Leslie reminds me of a few certain storms, especially ones that lasted a very long time such as Nadine '12 or Inga '69. This could hopefully become a major hurricane since the worst of the impacts will stay out to sea. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:29, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Apparently she's forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. Beatissima (talk) 21:10, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Leslie
Looks like it's now fully tropical. New cone is weird, going southwest, then abruptly north whil expected to be a hurricane. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:29, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * K... that track is one of the weirdest I've ever seen. This is forecast to hang in the same region for a week, kind of like how Nadine stayed in the Azores region for a long time back in 2012. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:53, September 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60 mph / 990 mbar. It is now forecast to reach 80 mph on October 3 and 4 before weakening. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:19, October 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70/986 now. The 6th hurricane of the season is coming. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:24, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Leslie
Leslie is now finally a hurricane! ChowKam2002 (talk) 11:20, October 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * She might maintain that intensity for at least 3 more days, according to the latest forecast track, but after that she'll turn east and out to sea, and will die for good some time after that. Ryan1000 12:00, October 3, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Leslie (2nd time)
And now she's back to Tropical Storm strength. Beatissima (talk) 21:44, October 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to remain around 60 mph for the remainder of the forecast period. I swear, this stubborn system might pull off a Nadine/Kyle/Ginger/Inga. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:41, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Leslie might hit 3 weeks at this rate. None of the models look like they're certain what Leslie might do after turning east-southeast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:14, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Watch her still be chilling out there while we're eating Christmas dinner. Beatissima (talk) 21:32, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Man, this storm has been sticking around for quite some time now, she's the Nadine of 2018. I guess we might as well start calling her "Lengthy Leslie" or something like that, the longer she stays up and kickin' in the Atlantic. Still a fishspinner though, and fortunately no one was killed by rip currents on the U.S. eastern seaboard. Ryan1000 00:04, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * And now it's even forecast to restrengthen at the end of the 5 days. With the way things appear now, it's very possible it will hit at least 3 weeks and end up rivaling Nadine in longevity. Even the NHC seems bored with this system lol... "It appears that stubborn Leslie will be with us for several more days." (in the discussion) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:39, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Imagine how much sand has been washed away from Bermuda in these last couple days.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:08, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * She has surpassed Beryl as the second longest-lived cyclone of this season. And she'll probably outstrip Florence this coming week. Beatissima (talk) 22:12, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Latest long range models show her curving southward, and coming rather close to the Canary Islands and Morocco. A close pass to/landfall on Morocco sounds like something that the "strangest storm" section on the betting pool would've cooked up. Even if it doesn't do anything crazy like that, she's already cemented herself as the best of the 2018 Subtropical Crew. Send Help Please (talk) 19:51, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yes. And, for added fun, the latest cone shows her re-strengthening to a hurricane on Thursday. Beatissima (talk) 20:48, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

If Leslie makes it to the Canary Islands or even Spain/Portugal down the road, it would be only the second time on record (after 2005) in which an Atlantic TC made a landfall that far east. Ryan1000 22:37, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * leslie, come make landfall in northern europe instead and cancel our lectures --FreedFromDesire (talk) 22:58, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

With her current track, Leslie could even end up in Portugal as a tropical storm, which would be a first. Ryan1000 00:34, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Leslie has been such a fun, creative, long-winded cyclone. I hope she doesn't end up hurting anyone in the end. Beatissima (talk) 02:14, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agreed, Leslie's track has been very strange and unique. It just stubbornly wandered around for a couple weeks with one of the weirdest tracks I've ever witnessed. However, this probably won't last as long as Nadine because extratropical transition is now in the forecast for the weekend. It's possible this might head into Vince '05 territory while still tropical. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:52, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

October
It's now the start of October by UTC. We still have the potential to see activity later this month, in particular the northwest Caribbean should be watched, in the event we get a late-season strong storm there. Ryan1000 04:02, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: North of Panama
It seems like I may have spoke too soon. The NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather north of Panama. It's at 0/20 for now, but they note that once shear lessens up, this could be a dangerous storm in the rich-warm northwest Caribbean down the road. This is something to watch out for. If not this then something else might come later in the month in the NW Caribbean. Ryan1000 11:19, October 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:30, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

0/40. Beatissima (talk) 22:18, October 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. This has potential to be something significant, and I've often thought of "Michael" as an ominous-sounding name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:44, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up further to 30/60. This will likely affect the northeastern Gulf Coast in a week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:17, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * 40/70 now. This is something to watch, if it forms.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:58, October 05, 2018 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested now at 40/70 50/80. Beatissima (talk) 22:09, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm still concerned about how future-Michael will pan out. Hopefully conditions in the GOM won't allow it to become a monster and cause destruction on the Gulf Coast. I predict a peak at perhaps C1-C2, kinda like Nate. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:44, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 70/90.YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:06, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 80/90. I'm assuming PTC/TD 14 will come later today or early tomorrow. The invest just needs a well-defined circulation to be designated.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     15:19, October 06, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen
Special Message from NHC	Issued 6 Oct 2018 20:17 UTC NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

They pretty much confirmed it. Here comes Michael! (assuming it becomes a TS, which it probably will.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:37, October 06, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up now on the TWO. Not expected to be a hurricane on the 5-day cone.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:58, October 06, 2018 (UTC)

It is, however, forecast to become a 70 mph TS, so it could have a chance to become a cat 1 or so before Michael-to-be makes landfall on the panhandle. Ryan1000 21:42, October 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Track feels similar to Alberto or Gordon, especially with that peak.YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:59, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

100/100 now. Here it comes. Beatissima (talk) 23:43, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Yep, here comes Michael, and it’s likely going to head straight towards where I am. Leeboy100 Hello!. 06:28, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm looking at the model runs and now the ECWMF looks like it makes Michael a Category 3 hurricane making aim at the panhandle of Florida. I want to say anywhere from Tampa to New Orleans is under threat, but conditions look ripe in the Gulf for Michael to be quite ominous imo. I have a bad feeling.  Owen 07:15, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

I don't believe this'll get that powerful before landfall, but the NHC forecast does now call for a cat 1 landfall near Panama City; assuming it hits there, Michael-to-be would be the first hurricane to directly hit there in 20 years, since 1998's Hurricane Earl. Ryan1000 09:21, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen
Current systems section has already said this but this section hasn't been updated yet. Anyway, I hope it won't reach Category 3. If that happens just before landfall, future Michael may rival Florence. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:30, October 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Michael-to-be won't be anywhere near Flo's devastation; there isn't enough property in Panama City for a (hypothetical category 3) storm to cause the damage Flo did to NC, and this will be moving faster so flooding from rainfall won't be as much of a threat. Now, if this were heading for, say Tampa at that intensity, that would be much worse, but Michael-to-be will likely make landfall north of there. Assuming this becomes a cat 1 at landfall, it would probably be a repeat of Hermine 2 years ago, just northwest of the big bend area. Ryan1000 16:04, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Michael
Tropical Storm Michael RSS Feed icon Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... 11:55 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 Location: 19.2°N 86.9°W Moving: N at 5 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

Update statement from NHC calls Michael. TWO not updated yet ATM, but Michael should be a hurricane. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:01, October 07, 2018 (UTC)


 * And like what Ryan said, this is basically Hermine 2.0. It is good that Michael is a fast-moving storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:35, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I like hurricanes. Just not when they hit people. It is a good thing that he's fast moving so no flooding from like stalling happens.YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:52, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Figured I'd share with you all this wonderful song that happens to bear this storm's name. Will be listening to it a lot this coming week, just as I did with this belter while Hurricane Maria was active. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:45, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

New advisory, 50 mph/999 mb. Now expected to peak as a Cat. 2. Like I said much earlier in the year, Michael gives me negative vibes... Send Help Please (talk) 21:02, October 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * The official NHC forecast is Cat 2 although several models are suggesting a Category 3 hurricane. Also some suggestion track will be revised slightly eastward which could put Tampa more as having potential effects so the track will need to be watched closely. Michael very likely could be the second retirement candidate of the year. Looks like the "M" is now the cursed letter of this decade much like how the "I" was last decade. --Whiplash (talk) 21:17, October 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Looks like the Carolinas will get soaked again. Beatissima (talk) 21:39, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * As someone in Tampa, I'm growing increasingly concerned with Michael. If the eastward trend continues, the forecast cone could bring the center of a hurricane up through the Tampa Bay area and further into the Carolinas in areas already devastated by Florence. We are approaching our 100 years without a major hurricane strike, and every year the city is one of (if not, the most) overdue for a strike. I'm concerned about the lack of the time for preparation. Model runs are trending stronger and the GFS and ECWMF shows a category 3 major hurricane approaching the coastline with plenty of more room for rapid intensification. The HWRF wants to make him a monster, and boy would I crap my pants if I see a run with the new recon data of sub 920 mbar. Talk about an October surprise in all aspects (weather-wise and politically in the USA). If Michael wants to be big, bad, and join his sister Florence in retirement, that would be the way to do it. Owen 21:53, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * That would really be a worst case scenario. Recovery efforts for Florence are still ongoing, right?YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:54, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Dang...maybe the Euro wasn't so crazy on that earlier intensity forecast after all. NHC said that the eastward shift in the track was due to the center apparently trying to reform farther east. He'll recurve due to a deep trough, but when the recurve happens is all dependent on how much speed Michael picks up and how strong he gets when he does so. If Michael books it like Nate of last year, then he'll probably hit the northern gulf coast, as indicated by the NHC forecast, but Michael has a tiny circulation embeded in deep convection, so if he RI's (and worse, slows down on top of that, hopefully he doesn't), then Michael and the trough could break through the ridge and move further south than the current projected track. I didn't expect Michael to get organized this fast, but apparently the northwesterly shear over him didn't hinder him as much as I first thought it would, and now he's much better organized. And as storms like Patricia showed in 2015, tiny storms can explode very quickly given the optimal conditions, and there may be no more than a day or two before their powerful landfalls...hopefully he passes north of Tampa down the road, a direct hit there from a strong major hurricane would be devastating.

Also Owen, I think you may have seen this report before (I believe I mentioned it once before), but if you haven't, Dr. Masters made a blog post in late 2012 at one point, when he stated that Sandy technically wasn't a worst-case scenario ("black swan") hurricane for NYC, as bad as it was, since it made landfall far enough south and wasn't a major hurricane when she struck. In that post, he mentioned 3 cities that could suffer extreme damage from a worst-case scenario hurricane, and one was Tampa. The other two were the Persian Gulf, if an instance were to happen similar to Cyclone Gonu in 2007 but without significant dry air to weaken it, a strong storm surge in the United Arab Emerates could do major damage to the middle eastern oil industry, and Darwin, Australia (formerly destroyed by Cyclone Tracy in 1974, but Tracy was a wind event due to her tiny size, and didn't do much in terms of storm surge. In the Tampa scenario, he mentioned a late report (I believe The Weather Channel also made a documentary on this) that if a hypothetical category 5 "Hurricane Phoenix" directly struck Tampa, it could cause a colossal storm surge that could reach as much as 43 feet high, and cause up to 250 billion dollars in damage, twice the damage from Harvey last year. I don't think Michael will become a category 5 storm, but if push comes to shove and the recent intensity runs from some of the models come to fruition, and if the track keeps shifting further south, Tampa may have to watch out for a very close run from a category 3 or even 4 storm...it's nerve-racking to see storms change this quickly. Ryan1000 22:25, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * i didn't know hurricanes can moonwalk and change their cloud colours --FreedFromDesire (talk) 22:57, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 60 mph/997 mb. This thing is really getting its act together. Send Help Please  (talk) 23:48, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * because this is thriller, michael doesn't care about us bc he is a smooth criminal who thinks the US is billie jean --FreedFromDesire (talk) 23:55, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * This might actually become scary. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:57, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Michael is starting to scare me. Leeboy100 Hello!. 02:39, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * that moonwalking colour-changing glitter-gloved storm is now 70mph (for americans that use imperial bc yall love imperial, drink de cola YeY) and now is forecast to become a hurricane soon, 110mph cat 2. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Michael: "Hey girl, do you Remember The Time that I gave you a Thriller but your dad told me to Beat It cause I was Bad, and I said it's Human Nature. But he Didn't Care About Us, so I ran like a Speed Demon that Can't Stop Loving You, I mean The Way You Make Me Feel. I said to you I can't help that I just want to Rock With You, and you Don't Stop Till You Get Enough cause I'll be a Smooth Criminal but now I have to look at the Man In The Mirror and say She's Out of My Life."

--FreedFromDesire (talk) 12:24, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Michael
AL, 14, 2018100812,, BEST, 0, 209N, 851W, 65, 982, HU

Per ATCF, Michael is now a hurricane. One thing I want to note with Michael is that he continues to move more north and a bit east at times...I'm not buying a sharp NNW turn, not in October. Front looks too strong, and I still think he will be east of the current forecast based mostly on my gut, but it remains to all be seen. Owen 13:01, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

NHC confirms. 75 mph, 982 mbar. Leeboy100 Hello!. 14:42, October 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also, NHC forecasts are now bringing this up to major status before landfall. If that happens, say hello to our second retirement candidate. Leeboy100 Hello!. 14:47, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Edit Conflict: NHC also now predicts Michael to peak as a mid strength Cat 3 at 120mph. While I think Cat 3 is the most likely scenario for Michael I have seen some experts on Twitter saying low level Cat 4 is also a possibility in this scenario as well. Track also seems to be too far west in models and many are admitting this. Tallahassee looks like it could take a direct hit and experience major hurricane winds and can't rule out further eastern track depending on forward speed. Storm surge warnings have also been issued for Tampa. This is going to be a major event for Florida and this will almost certainly be retired if this scenario plays out. --Whiplash (talk) 14:50, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * CORRECTION**: That should say watch for Tampa. :) --Whiplash (talk) 14:55, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Things are looking worse every hour. For those who don't know, Florida's king tide event will occur while Michael is forecast to make landfall. Not only does that mean water levels will be at their highest, but there is the potential for a poisonous algae to be present. Pray for Florida, they're gonna be hit hard. -  PORY GONAL  14:59, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope this won't become Irma 2.0. That's all I can say. It is moving fast, but it is intensifying fast. I really don't feel good about Michael now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * And one more thing, death toll has risen to 9. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:11, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * So just to pick everyone's brain's here for a second. The track of Michael is taking it either just to the west or east of the Apalachicola penninsula. On the east of the penninsula is the Apalachee Bay. Now as far as I can tell if Michael does take this route is there actually any precedent for a major hurricane making landfall here. The closest I can tell would be the 1896 Cedar Keys hurricane at Cat 3 but even that was not in the bay. If Michael does take the more eastern route than I believe this would be the most severe hurricane to ever hit this area and probably the worst storm to ever hit Tallahassee. I suppose this route might be good because the actual coast where the storm surge is going to be is not that populated here? --Whiplash (talk) 16:39, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

No change in winds, but pressure down to 978 mbars per latest advisory. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:24, October 08, 2018 (UTC)

This track is genuinely terrifying.YellowSkarmory (talk) 18:28, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Winds now up to 80 mph, no change in pressure.  Send Help Please (talk) 20:47, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Well, the NHC expects the trough to come later while the high pressure ridge over Florida remains intact, but Michael's rapid intensification and less than fast movement could drastically change the track, and in a very short time Frame. If Michael continues to explode and move slowly while the trough catches up, then Tampa may well be in the firing line soon, because he's located further east than he was expected at this point. A 120 mph category 3 hurricane hitting Panama city would be devastating, but a Tampa landfall would be much, much worse. And yeah Whiplash, the area between Tampa and Panama City in Cedar Key or so (where Hermine made landfall in 2016) is less populated than many other coastal parts of Florida, though it is vulnerable to storm surge. But I really don't like Michael's rapidly changing intensity (and potentially course) that has happened overnight, especially for Tampa. Ryan1000 21:16, October 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * So I decided to do a little homework on major hurricane landfalls in this area. To answer my above question there has actually never been a major hurricane in the Apalachee Bay proper. Considering a lot of the forecasts have Panama City kind of in the middle of the cone of uncertainty I decided to see all the major hurricanes that landfalled within 65 nautical miles of the area and there have been 6 all category 3's the were by recency in 1851, 1877, 1882, 1894, 1917, and Eloise in 1975, in otherwords it has been a very long time since a major hurricane has made landfall in this particular section of the Panhandle and the most recent Florida Panhandle hurricanes have been more towards the Pensacola area so this track would be a rarity if this is where the final landfall is and at least from the climatological record a Category 4 has never made landfall in this area. Which maybe is a comforting statistic although there is nothing with the dynamics of the area to say this area couldn't have a Category 4. I hope that the length of time since a bad storm here doesn't lead to complacency with the evacuation orders. Eloise the last storm in this area did not cause any direct fatalities in the state although 4 people died indirectly in the state most of Eloise's fatalities occured in the northeastern U.S. as it became a rain event. Based on these facts hopefully Michael isn't particularly catastrophic in Florida however depending on track potentially the biggest issue could be if he further aggravates the flooding issue in the Carolina's. Not sure if he will be a retirement candidate after all, just depends how seriously people take the storm to avoid loss of life. --Whiplash (talk) 22:42, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

WOW. Preliminary data from the most recent recon mission suggests Michael has dropped from 978 to 968mb since the last mission started. If this keeps up we would be looking at a monster major by tomorrow morning. --Whiplash (talk) 23:44, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Per latest advisory, Michael now 85/970. This is getting worse and worse.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:01, October 09, 2018 (UTC)


 * (edit conflict) If Michael hits Panama City as a category 4 storm (as indicated by the HWRF) it would be a very destructive hurricane, though it may not cause nearly as much as Florence did to North Carolina due to it's lower population than cities like Tampa or Miami, but a landfall farther south can't be ruled out, and Michael has also expanded his outer windfield a bit since before...for some ominous reason, I have a bad feeling this'll hit Tampa if it continues to quickly explode, because it could get recurved by the approaching trough sooner if that happens. Ryan1000 00:09, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * I have this gut feeling as well Ryan, but I also had the same one with Irma and we saw what ended up happening. The movement is still due north, which would bring the eye of Michael closer to Tallahassee than Panama City. Regardless of where Michael ends up landing, this is a very scary situation unfolding. Owen 01:51, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Now up to 90 mph.  Send Help Please (talk) 02:58, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * I've been watching this system over the past couple days and it's really shaping up to be something very scary for the Florida Panhandle. Michael is intensifying fast and could make landfall as a major hurricane. I'm particularly concerned for Leeboy, who lives in that region... This is shaping up to be the year's second retirement candidate. Unfortunately, that region doesn't have much time to prepare (landfall is Wednesday). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:44, October 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Depends on how strong the ridge holds. If the high pressure ridge holds on (like it fortunately currently seems to be), then Tampa might get off the hook, but if it misses Tampa it may become stronger when it reaches the panhandle. In the case of Irma, I feared that it would actually be a worst-case scenario for Miami and/or Savannah instead of Tampa (since an exceptionally strong major hurricane hitting Miami could inflict even more damage than a similar storm in Tampa, especially since a storm like Irma was expected to ride north-northwestward up the southeastern coast of the state, which would've also devastated many towns and suburbs north of downtown). But back to Michael, Panama City is on the coastline instead of inland like Tallahassee, but they could both be hit hard by this thing, and with Michael's rapidly organizing structure, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a cat 4 before landfall, he's already looking as if he wants to develop a pinhole eye, and with the current conditions in the GOM, I don't see anything stopping him from intensifying very rapidly over the next day or two, possibly even to a 4. Also @Whiplash: Panama City technically wasn't founded in Florida until 1909, so although the 1851, 1877, 1882 and 1894 hurricanes made landfall in that area of Florida, Panama City didn't exist at the time those 4 storms struck. That leaves the 1917 hurricane and Eloise, and they both technically missed the city just to the west, although that still left Panama City with parts of the right-hand side of the storms. Michael will certainly be the worst hurricane in modern memory for the small city of roughly 37,000 people, if he becomes a category 4, let alone 3, at landfall there. Ryan1000 04:50, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Another AOI, south of the Azores and already an invest, currently at 20/30. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:57, October 06, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/30 now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:03, October 07, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/10.YellowSkarmory (talk) 23:27, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/0. Nadine might come from the Cape Verde AOI. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:36, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead and off the TWO.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:23, October 08, 2018 (UTC)

aoi: South of Cabo Verde
Hopefully I did this right. Looks like it's at 20/30 right now, south of Cabo Verde. Don't think it's an invest.YellowSkarmory (talk) 23:27, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Guess this would become Nadine instead of 92L. Hopefully not as destructive as the other Cape Verde-type hurricanes. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:17, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Conditions are semi-decent for development in the near-future, but are expected to become unfavorable near the eastern Caribbean. It's possible that waves like this could become something if they reach the EPac down the road though. Conditions are favorable enough for one or two more good storms to form over there after Sergio. Ryan1000 08:57, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Now an invest, and up to 50/60. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:23, October 08, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/80. We could see Nadine here.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:49, October 08, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is developing in a similar region to where Nadine's 2012 incarnation first developed. However, this one should be much shorter lived due to strong upper-level winds by late week. Probably going to be a failure name-stealer... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:55, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen
And it is now a TD. This will [sadly (?)] become Nadine. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:13, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
I added this section, as we are already well into the season despite the fact that only 3 storms have formed so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's Atlantic retirement forecast
That's all for now.
 * Alberto - 5% - Caused disruption, but nothing significant really.
 * Beryl - 5% - A spectacle, regenerated a la Harvey, scared Maria-battered Puerto Rico, yet only inflicted minimal damage.
 * Chris - 2% - 2% for being a Category 2 in the cooler waters of the northern Atlantic, but other than that... nothing notable.
 * Debby - 0.1% - Yeah, I gave that .1 for forming in cool waters. But no, Debby will definitely return in 2024.
 * Ernesto - 0.2% - Debby 2.0. I only gave that 0.2 percent due to the fact that Ernesto lasted longer than Debby. However, Ernesto will most likely return in 2024.
 * Florence - TBD - Most likely to be retired. Final percentage will be released once she dissipates
 * Gordon - 3% - Affected land but did not cause a lot of damage.
 * Helene - TBD - A fishspinner for most of her life but potential impacts in Europe still need to be watched out.
 * Isaac - TBD - I could have already given Isaac a percentage, but his remnants are still on the TWO as of the moment.
 * Joyce - TBD - Also a weak fishspinner so far but let's see if Europe will get some impacts.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:25, September 16, 2018 (UTC).

joestar's retirement home
yare yare daze (talk) 17:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * alby (5%) : "lolololol florida i'm gonna destroy you like irma" -was a subtropical storm-
 * bez (2%) : "weeeeeee i'm a baby hurricane i am gonna weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee"
 * chris (0%) : "look at me i can pull stunts like the chris-tal ball in 2014 and i can be better than him haha"
 * debby (-420%) : hell naw
 * anesuto (clannad%) : i didn't feel anything from this f-cker as he went past the uk LOL!
 * flossie (∞%) : OF COURSE THIS B-TCH BE GOING. WORSE THAN THAT F-CKER FLOYD WHO HIT HIMSELF LIKE A THROWN BRICK ON NC'S SEAWALL. BE GONE THOT. GOODBYE TO YOU AND YOUR TWISTED MACHINE YOU HURRICANE DRUNK THOT
 * gordon (5%) : ramsay's mouth was the gulf coast and he thinks the taste of clouds is too bland to warrant a retirement
 * helene (0%) : i literally flew into helene and ali upon return from germany, plus when i was in spain i got a bit of her lightning, and saw some sh-tty surf from the nw portuguese coast. dindunuffin.
 * i suck (0%) : lol no
 * joyce (0%) : ur mom lole

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - Just >$125 million in damage and 12 deaths should not convince the U.S. to give Alberto the boot. This is nothing compared to very bad storms America experienced in the past, such as Harvey or Katrina. Usually, retirements in the U.S. have a damage bill of at least $1 billion.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Some credit given for its pre-season formation. However, the fact that it remained subtropical for almost its whole life (through peak intensity and landfall) prevents the grade from being higher than this.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Beryl :
 * Retirement: 3% - The relatively light impacts it caused were in-between lives as a remnant low. The regions it impacted have seen much worse last year. Even the hardest-hit regions (like the Dominican Republic) have seen much worse in the past.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - The grade is boosted for its rapid intensification in the MDR so early in the year, and for being the first "Hurricane Beryl" ever. As a bonus, it briefly regenerated east of the East Coast. However, its small size meant it had potential to get even stronger in the MDR.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris :
 * Retirement: 1% - It did cause a death due to rough seas and impacted Canada as an extratropical system. That isn't enough to even think about retirement though.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - Did a nice job at the C2 part.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby :
 * Retirement: 0% - Completely out to sea.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Stole a name off the list, but I have to say it performed better than I expected (by reaching 50 mph).


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto :
 * Retirement: 0% - I believe the only impacts it ever caused were in the UK and Ireland as a post-tropical system. It was a complete fishspinner while tropical. That certainly won't ever earn it retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Although it was weaker than Debby, it stayed tropical unusually far north.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">FLORENCE :


 * RETIREMENT: <font color="#000">100% - FLORENCE WILL BE GONE BECAUSE OF ITS CATASTROPHIC EAST COAST DEVASTATION. DAMAGES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT LEAST $38 BILLION SO FAR, WHICH PUTS IT AT LEAST AT #6 ON THE COSTLIEST ATLANTIC HURRICANES ON RECORD, AND IT WAS QUITE DEADLY TOO. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO WAY THIS WILL BE SNUBBED. SAY GOODBYE TO THE FINAL ORIGINAL "F" NAME AND THE LONGEST LASTING ATLANTIC NAME ON RECORD (FIRST USED IN 1953).
 * GRADING: <font color="#0C3">A - WOW, WHAT AN AMAZING LONG-LIVED STORM THAT EVEN RI'D IN THE FACE OF MARGINAL CONDITIONS EARLIER IN ITS LIFESPAN. UNFORTUNATELY, THE IMPACTS TO THE U.S. KNOCK THE GRADE DOWN QUITE A BIT.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gordon :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">5% - So far, it killed 2 people which is much less than Alberto. Damages are still unreleased, but hopefully it wasn't too severe.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Became a strong tropical storm, near hurricane strength. The fact that it peaked just under hurricane strength isn't a big deal considering how it was threatening the Gulf Coast.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Helene :
 * Retirement: 3% - Hit the Cape Verdes and the Azores, and later on Great Britain as an extratropical system, but I highly doubt impacts were severe enough to even consider retirement. Unfortunately, it caused 3 deaths.
 * Grading: <font color="#CF0">C+ - It got very close to hitting major status, but unfortunately flunked it. But this wasn't expected to get very powerful anyway.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Isaac :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.5% - Any impacts in the Windward Islands were meager.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Fell below initial expectations, but at least it still became a hurricane.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Joyce :
 * Retirement: 0% - If excluding any very meager impacts in the Azores, this was a complete fishspinner. Joyce has no choice but to return in 2024.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Another fail like Debby and Ernesto earlier this year.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Eleven :
 * Retirement: N/A - no name
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Pathetic flop that developed too late. But let's be glad a name wasn't stolen.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Kirk :
 * Retirement: 1% - I doubt it was too bad, probably a re-Isaac for the Windwards.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Gets points for regenerating and peaking at 60 mph in its second life.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Leslie :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Michael :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:20, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 04:57, October 9, 2018 (UTC))

TG's Retirement Predictions
Welcome to my fourth annual retirement prediction, the first year that I have dropped the colors since 2015. This year I will just make it simple and easy, without it taking 5 minutes to get the right color for each storm.


 * Alberto - 10%: 10% might be a little too high, but Alberto is definitely not worthy of retirement.
 * Beryl - 0%: I seriously think this storm is overrated, to be honest. It didn't do much, and it was a classic weak MDR cyclone that occasionally happen on the edge of the MDR.
 * Chris - 1%: Chris killed one person, unfortunately, but it won't be enough for a retirement. Classic subtropics hurricane. T  G  2 0 1 8 17:00, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Adding mine too. Color scheme is up for the second straight year.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Alberto – grade  A , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Early surprise to maintain a 4-year streak of preseason storms. Bonus points for transitioning to a tropical cyclone inland and surviving as far north as Michigan. Retirement is unlikely, however.
 * Beryl – grade  A , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Cute little midget MDR hurricane. Even managed to hang on and have a second stint as a subtropical storm. Simply amazing.
 * Chris – grade  C , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Decent fish, unfortunately one death.
 * Debby – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . "Debby" shouldn't have gone to this name thief.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 10:07, August 10, 2018 (UTC).

Roy's Retirement Prediction
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto ( 17% ) - A pre-season storm that continued the streak of years with pre-season storms, and transitioned to a tropical cyclone over Tennessee and made it as far as Michigan. It did some millions of damage and a couple of deaths, but the US won't retire this name
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Beryl ( 0.001% ) - A small hurricane in the MDR that became the first ever Hurricane Beryl. This won't be retired, but a little bit greater than 0% due to its effect on land while post-tropical
 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris ( 1% ) - A C2 that didn't really affect land other than claiming one live, but even that won't retire Chris
 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby ( 0% ) - Weak storm that stayed out to sea
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto ( 0% ) - Same as Debby, but did stay tropical really far north
 * <font color="#ff8f20">FLORENCE (<font color="#500">100% ) - A long lasting storm that devastated the Carolinas, and caused an estimated $17 billion as well as claiming 40 lives so far. Say good-bye to the last remaining original "F" name in the Atlantic.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gordon ( 1% ) - A relatively quick storm that almost became a hurricane, but only caused 2 deaths as of now.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Helene ( 0.01% ) - A nice storm that originally threatened the Azores but hadn't. Only claimed 3 lives.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Isaac ( 0.001% ) - A small storm that did nothing tot he Lesser Antilles, and claimed no lives
 * <font color="#00faf4">Joyce ( 0% ) - Pretty much a weak fish
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kirk ( 0.001% ) - A pretty weak storm that impacted the Leeward Islands at the end of it's life, but other than that, nothing
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Leslie (???) - Currently active
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Michael (???) - Currently active

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:49, August 08, 2018 (UTC) Last updated on 23:58, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Lee’s retirements
We’ve had only 4 systems, but it is August, so I might as well start this. Leeboy100 Hello!! 03:54, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto- 10%: Caused 12 deaths, and some impacts, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
 * Beryl- 2%: First ever Hurricane Beryl, and it came in the form of a cute little mini-hurricane. Did cause flash flooding in Puerto Rico and other areas recovering from Irma and Maria from last year, but thankfully wasn’t too bad and caused no fatalities.
 * Chris- 3%: Did cause some impacts in Newfoundland, and unfortunately one death. Not enough for retirement though.
 * Debby- 0%: Nope.
 * Ernesto- 0%: Ditto.
 * Florence- 100%: Damages potentially well over $20 billion, 41 deaths so far. Our last original F name is definitely gone after this year. (Replacement names: Fern, Frieda, Faith.)
 * Gordon- 5%: 3 deaths and quite a bit of flooding, but I don’t see him going anywhere.
 * Helene- 5%: 3 deaths from the precursor wave, I expect it to stay.
 * Isaac- 0%: Unlike the last original F name, our last original I name won’t be going anywhere, even though he probably should have been retired in 2012.
 * Joyce- 0%: Didn’t do any harm.
 * Kirk- 0%: Didn’t live long or prosper
 * Leslie- Currently active

SHP's Grades and Retirement Predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Grade colors:  S ,  A+ ,  A ,  A- ,  B ,  C ,  D ,  E ,  F ,  Failippe 

Note: Impact to land has no affect on grade, aside from S rank, which is reserved for fishspinners.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Alberto : Grade:  C  - Retirement: 10% - Neat little pre-season surprise that went tropical inland and continued the pre-season storm streak that has been going since 2015. Gets 10% for around $125 million in damage and 12 total deaths.
 * <font color="#fffcc">Beryl : Grade:  A-  - Retirement: 1% - We finally got a Hurricane Beryl, in the form of an adorable little mini-cane that (mostly) spared the areas that were mauled last season. Bonus points for surprise regen though it was short lived.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Chris : Grade:  C  - Retirement: 2% - Gert 2.0
 * <font color="#00faf4">Debby : Grade:  F  - Retirement: lol no % - Nothing too notable about this one, aside from it starting this year's nrothern latitude subtropical storm trend.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ernesto : Grade:  E  - Retirement: 0% - Basically Debby 2.0, but gains points for resilience.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">FLORENCE : Grade:  A  - Retirement: 100% - She broke rainfall records in North Carolina, turned Wilmington into an island for a few days, caused at least 38 billion dollars in damage and killed over 40 people. She's gone, no questions asked. She was a rather impressive storm early on though, RI'ing out of nowhere.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gordon : Grade:  E  - Retirement: 5% - Almost reached hurricane status, but hit land before he could. Impacts were not that bad aside from the two deaths, which is why I'm giving him a lower retirement chance than Alberto.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Helene : Grade:  B  - Retirement: 3% - Got a bit stonger than expected, didn't do much.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Isaac : Grade:  D  - Retirement: 1% - Unremarkable MDR Cat 1, didn't have the cuteness or regen bonus of Beryl.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Joyce : Grade:  F  - Retirement: 0% - Yet another northern latitude subtropical storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kirk : Grade:  E  - Retirement: 1% - Saved from F rank by the regen, didn't do much in the Caribbean.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Leslie : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Michael : Grade: ??? - Retirement: ??? - Still active, could be a bad one in the next few days.

Will be added on to as needed. Send Help Please (talk) 08:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

IbAHAn1829tree's Name Retirement Chances
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:01, August 15, 2018 (UTC) Updated October 07, 2018.
 * Tropical Storm Alberto - 0.5% : Became tropical over land, caused some damage and, sadly, deaths.
 * Category 1 Beryl - 0% : First HURRICANE Beryl ever, did nothing.
 * Category 2 Chris - 0.01 % : Did nothing but take the life of 1, sadly.
 * Tropical Storm Debby - 0% : A fail, but at least it became a named storm.
 * Tropical Storm Ernesto - 0% : Another fail, the Atlantic storms this year seem to like the water up north for some reason.
 * Category 4 Florence - Bye% : Mass flooding in the Carolinas, possibly more than $10 billion $30 billion in damage, and 53 deaths (as of 10/07/2018). Bye, Florence.
 * Tropical Storm Gordon - 0.5% : Did some things to the gulf coast, sadly taking the lives of two.
 * Category 2 Helene - 0% : Almost became a major hurricane and is forecast to affect the Azores Islands.
 * Category 1 Isaac - 0.000000000000000001% : Weak hurricane that did stuff to the Caribbean islands. I highly doubt this will get retired.
 * Tropical Storm Joyce - 0% : Why did this fail even exist...
 * Tropical Storm Kirk - 0% : Will affect the Caribbean later on.
 * Category 1 Leslie - 0% : And it just keeps going and going and going and going and going...
 * Tropical Storm Michael - Greater than 0% : This is becoming a hurricane, and GFS, ECMWF, and especially HWRF are saying this will reach major hurricane intensity! Oh boy...

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions
Never thought this year's AHS would kick up as fast as it did...it's a shame that we got a severe storm for the U.S. this year, after last year. For now, though: That's it...for now. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 10% - Made 2018 the fourth consecutive AHS to start early, and was the second consecutive incarnation of Alberto to do so as well. But with 125 million in damage and 12 deaths, I have to give him some credit for impact.
 * Beryl - 1% - Defied expectations and become a tiny hurricane in the open Atlantic and came back later on as a subtropical storm, but Bery's effects on land were minimal at most.
 * Chris - 1% - Killed a person from rip currents and caused some minor damage in Newfoundland. Nothing too much.
 * Debby - 0% - Shortest-lived and weakest storm of the season. Fail.
 * Ernesto - 0% - Debby 2.0.
 * Florence - 100% - Caused catastrophic flooding in North Carolina that ranks Florence 8th among the top 10 wettest tropical cyclones in U.S. history, not to mention the damage might be as high as 50 billion dollars, which, if confirmed, would make Flo the 6th costliest hurricane in U.S. history (7th costliest if you count inflation into today's dollars because of Andrew, and undoubtedly the costliest in North Carolina's history), and at least 48 people were killed, mostly in North Carolina. So our last original "F" name is as good as gone after this year.
 * Gordon - 5% - Killed at least 2 people, with some minor damage from inland flooding.
 * Helene - 2% - Precursor wave killed 3 people, with some minor effects in Cape Verde and the Azores, but nothing else.
 * Isaac - 1% - Caused minor rainfall in the Lessers, but Isaac dissipated in the Caribbean and he will come back in 2024. Our last original "I" retired name will have to wait for some other day.
 * Joyce - 0% - Didn't even affect the Azores...so see you in 6 years.
 * Kirk - 1% - Passed through the Lessers as a minor TS, but with little impacts, like Isaac and Beryl.
 * Leslie - ?? - Former (sub)tropical fishspinner right now, but could impact Bermuda with some outer rainbands and waves, and the Iberian Peninsula could get a rare landfall from this.
 * Michael - ?? - Still active, but the track is quickly changing in response to a rapidly organizing storm...behave yourself, Michael.

Retirement predictions from Nut
Not a regular user here, but since we're well into the peak of the season and the fact that the Atlantic has shot up in activity, I'll do my retirements. Nutfield001 (talk) 16:32, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 15% - A pre-season storm (fourth consecutive one) that only did minor damage in the Gulf Coast. Impressed that the Atlantic can crank up another pre-season storm. The Atlantic will fail after 2018.
 * Beryl - 1% - Can't imagine retirement as impacts were negligible. Its intensification to a hurricane was impressive given cool waters in the MDR and it also defied initial forecasts.
 * Chris - 2.5% - Minimal impacts overall which killed a person thanks to its rip currents.
 * Debby - 0% - An unusual storm that formed far north, a borderline fail but not exactly a fail due to its formation location.
 * Ernesto - 1% - Unlike others, I'm not calling this a fail as it stayed tropical unusually far north. Minimal damages (if any) equal no retirement unless the Daily Express gets its hands on the retirement system.
 * Florence - TBC - First major hurricane of the season which is currently posing a major threat to the Carolinas. Retirement percentage will be released once the storm dissipates.
 * Gordon - 5% - Near hurricane that hit land before it had to chance to become one. I kinda wish it became a hurricane, maybe it'll receive the Cindy 2005 treatment post-analysis. But then again, why would I wish hurricane intensity over a storm that poses a minor threat to land.
 * Helene - TBC - Currently an active near-major hurricane. She will most likely remain at sea after leaving minor effects in Cape Verde.
 * Isaac - TBC - Forecast to pass through the Lessers as a hurricane, but let's hope impacts are minor (it probably will be) as Maria 2017 was bad enough for Dominica.

Isaac's Oversimplified Predictions
-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  06:11, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence - 100% - Flooding still happening, but the damage will be in the billions.
 * Isaac - No.
 * Any other names - 0%

Retirement Chances from Owen
Owen 18:13, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 1% - Caused roughly $125 million worth in damages in the southeastern United States gives him credit where it's due but history tells us he will remain on the naming list.
 * Beryl - 0% - A true defier of every forecast and the second earliest MDR hurricane on record, but she's going to stay because of the lack of major affects.
 * Chris - 0% - A hurricane, which did impressed many and attained C2, that didn't really do anything notable enough to warrant retirement.
 * Debby - 0% - Not a chance in hell.
 * Ernesto - 0% - See Debby.
 * Florence - 100% - I was the first to write here previously about the report from Moody's Analytics that Hurricane Florence damages ranged anywhere from $17-22 billion. It now appears that damage is more excessive than originally anticipated and if true, places as Florence the seventh costliest hurricane in United States history. Even if the damages are closer to the previous report, it's extremely likely the U.S. will request the retirement of the name. Accordingly, I can now say it's safe to assume retirement will certainly occur. Goodbye Florence. (Replacement picks: Faith, Frieda, and Fern)
 * Gordon - 1% - Like Alberto, he fortunately, didn't really cause significant damages.
 * Helene - 1% - Wrought some minimal effects on Cabo Verde and Azores, and tried to throw on a show in the eastern Atlantic leading to her just barely missing out on major hurricane status.
 * Isaac - 1% - He lasted a bit longer than I expected him to and was one of three simultaneous hurricanes, so credit is due there, but it looks like Isaac is coming back in 2024.
 * Joyce - 0% - See Debby and Ernesto.
 * Kirk - 0% - I give him credit for being able to regenerate and become a moderate tropical storm, but it doesn't look like he did much in terms of impact in the Lesser Antilles.
 * Leslie - TBA - Leslie has been a headache for forecasters, but she's now aimed at Spain and Portugal as a potential hurricane. If that materializes, we will be in uncharted territory as far as modern times seeing that happen.
 * Michael - TBA - Things aren't looking good for Florida, but things are looking good for Michael to join his sister Florence in retirement next spring. (Replacement picks: Marcus, Max, and Malcolm)

Beatissima's retirement predictions
Beatissima (talk) 02:45, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Definitely: Florence
 * Probably: --
 * Likely: --
 * Unlikely: Alberto
 * Probably not: Chris, Gordon, Helene, Isaac, Kirk
 * Definitely not: Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, Joyce
 * N/A: Eleven
 * Active: Leslie, Michael
 * Unused: Nadine, Oscar, Patty, Rafael, Sara, Tony, Valerie, William, Greeks

Skarmory's retirement predictions + grades
Grades:  S, <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#C00">F , F-, <font color="#0000FF">TBD 
 * Alberto - 5% - <font color="#0C3">A-  - Shouldn't get retired, damages were pretty bad and there were some deaths though. Became tropical over Tennessee which earns it this high, but the land impacts drop it down to A-.
 * Beryl - 0.5% - <font color="#3F0">B  - No deaths and minimal damages. You'll be staying. However the regen portion was nice, and no deaths help its' grade.
 * Chris - 1% - <font color="#3F0">B  - 1 death and probably minimal damages. Only reason his retirement chances are higher than Beryl is because of the death. However he was a nice little C2 in the northern atlantic.
 * Debby - 0% - <font color="#C00">F  -  Fishspinner that did nothing except turn tropical.
 * Ernesto - 0% - <font color="#C00">F  - Fishspinner while tropical/subtropical that also did nothing except turn tropical.
 * Florence - 100% - <font color="#0C3">A- - Self-explanatory retirement chance. Devastating in the Carolinas, over 38 billion USD in damages estimated. Those damages knock it down to A-, but becoming the first major of the year and having an unusual track get it up this high.
 * Gordon - 2% - <font color="#FF0">C-  - 2 deaths, damages were probably not that bad. Very unlikely to be retired. Being a TS with an eye was cool though.
 * Helene - 2% - <font color="#CF0">C  - 3 deaths and impacts on Cabo Verde, damages unknown but also probably not that bad. Impacted europe while extratropical but that shouldn't affect anything. Becoming a C2 was cool, the effects were not quite as cool. Barely missed major status.
 * Isaac - 1% - <font color="#F60">D  - No deaths, unknown damages. Probably not very severe. Weak hurricane that didn't do too much gets it D rank.
 * Joyce - 0% - <font color="#C00">F  - Fishspinner, just like Debby/Ernesto in that it did nothing except turn tropical.
 * Eleven - 0% - <font color="#C00">F  - Can't be retired. Didn't do much of anything except form.
 * Kirk - 1% - <font color="#F60">D  - Same as Isaac. Didn't reach hurricane strength but did regen.
 * Leslie - TBD - Currently going on.
 * Michael - TBD - Currently going on. YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:48, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

AnimationMaster's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#666">0% or <font color="#666">N/A, <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9% , <font color="#00FFFF">1-9% , <font color="#00D5D5">10-19% , <font color="#00A0A0">20-29% , <font color="#00A000">30-39% , <font color="#FFC800">40-49% , <font color="#FF8800">50-59% , <font color="#E80000">60-69% , <font color="#B40000">70-79% , <font color="#800000">80-89% , <font color="#000000">90-99% , <font color="#000080">100% 

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Notes: AnimationMaster  (Talk |  Contributions)  00:30, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Percentages/grades in italics indicate temporary ratings and would have yet to change.

Female "F" names (For Florence)
Since Florence caused major damage and many fatalities in North Carolina with her very heavy rains, strong surge, and locally high winds, the last original "F" name since 1979 is this season's first retirement candidate. So, what do you think will replace Florence? Here are some suggestions: These are some names that come to mind. Any other suggestions? Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Faith
 * Fern
 * Fatima
 * Farrah
 * Frieda
 * Fannie
 * Fanya
 * Florita


 * Personally Farrah would be my favourite name to replace Florence but I do feel like Faith and Fern should be used first since they have been used previously. If I were to suggest other names they would be:


 * Fallon
 * Francesca
 * Francine
 * Fleur
 * Freya

--Whiplash (talk) 19:31, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Frida/Frieda/Freda is my favorite to replace Florence (kinda like Fred, but since Julia/Julian exist here, I think it would be a good option). Federica, Farrah and Freya are also okay with me. Fanny, Fleur, Francine and Fern are also great. Other options may be Fiore, Flavia, Filomena, Felina and Fergie (although that may remind people either of the former duchess, the former football manager or the singer/rapper). But if they are gonna apply what they did to Katrina and Rita, I think Flo would be the front runner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:06, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

The government of France requested Frances to be removed in the RA IV hurricane committee after 2004 (but Frances was destructive enough on its own merit), so names similar to Frances, like Francine, Francesca, ect probably won't be picked, if France makes another request like they did for Frances. Ryan1000 20:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here are some more

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:56, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Fergie
 * Fortuna
 * Fairy
 * Fina
 * Felicita


 * uhh


 * frida (this spelling only, the freida/freda spellings are minging and frida can also be used in spanish-speaking countries)
 * fabiola
 * francesca (but reminds me too much of fran, now aged 22 and regretting her drunken rampage across nc, flossie was like this b-tch, avoid bad omens!)
 * fatima (islamic name, similar to omar in 2020, #diversity)
 * faith (belch)
 * fleur (play that sax)
 * felicity
 * fanny (imagine if it hits the uk)
 * farrah (fawcett)
 * fabienne
 * frederica
 * frederike
 * fern (britton, lol)
 * fearne (cotton, better)
 * farryn
 * faelyn
 * fineena (irish name)
 * fauna
 * faustine
 * farzaneh (muslim)
 * finola (also irish)

my top pics would be frida, fanny, farrah, fabiola, fleur, fatima. --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:35, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * also why d'yall prefer the hideous spelling of freida

i need a vomit bucket right now it's frida --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:58, September 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * I honestly like Faith, Fatima, Farrah, Frieda, and Francine. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:54, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * BRUH it's FRIDA, not Freida! If they choose the latter spelling I NEED A FKKING VOMIT BUCKET AND TO BE SENT TO A&E ¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 12:15, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Calm it Rara. We all have different preferences of what names we like, no need to bash on others for having different opinions. As for me, Fri(e)da isn't my first pick, but it's an option nonetheless; I would like Farrah, Faith, Fleur, Fern, or Fatima. Ryan1000 12:31, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * And what Steve said is actually Frieda, not Freida. Anyway, I think Freda/Frida/Frieda is a strong candidate to replace Florence, but I am having a gut feel that they would just shorten Florence to Flo (I hope not, but it is still a possibility). Frauke may also replace Florence. Farrah, Freya and Faith are also likely. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:13, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol! don't y'all understand that i'm not being serious and learn to take a joke? anyway frauke is cool too --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 21:59, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * As listed in my section, my top three names as replacements for Florence in order are Faith, Fern and Frieda. If I was to make a prediction based off of my gut - a form of Frieda is probably going to be the replacement. I don't see names such as Francine or Flo being selected because they are too similar to Fran and Florence, but you never know (eg. Frederic getting retired being replaced with Fabian, which in turn would also head toward retirement, only to be replaced with Fred). Owen 07:11, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

Male "M" names (Potentially for Michael)
Michael is rapidly looking like it'll be a dangerous storm for the gulf coast of Florida, and he'll probably be our second retirement candidate if the current forecast for a category 3 hurricane comes to pass. If that happens, what do you think will replace Michael? Here are some suggestions: My personal picks would be Mark/Marcus, Miles, Morris, or Micah (for the record, I copy/pasted most of this from Andros1337's suggestions for Matthew in 2016, except Martin, which did replace Matthew). Ryan1000 00:09, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mark
 * Marcus
 * Macario
 * Mariano
 * Maurizio
 * Mickey
 * Moriarty
 * Merrick
 * Morris
 * Malcolm
 * Mervyn
 * Merv
 * Marcelino
 * Marley
 * Mercer
 * Merlin
 * Miles
 * Micah
 * Milo
 * Maurice
 * My picks would be Marcus, Malcolm, Moriarty,  or (Bob) Marley.   Send Help Please (talk) 02:28, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
The first TCR for the Atlantic this year was put up on the site yesterday, and it is for Beryl. Some changes were that Beryl formed a day earlier, and pressure was dropped from 994 to 991 mbars. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:09, September 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * Slight change in the section on Beryl -- It dissipated on the 8th but regenerated on the 14th. These dissipation and regeneration dates weren't changed in the TCR. Ryan1000 06:58, September 22, 2018 (UTC)