Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We have one for the EPac, so why not the Atlantic? Betting pools are here. I'll make my worldwide calls later on. Ryan1000 21:20, November 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * I really want more from this upcoming season; 2014 was a good start. I predict...18 total depressions, 16 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, all with an ACE of ~194 units. Also, I want this season to be dead quiet at first before becoming a nightmare season. See more information here... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, November 28, 2014 (UTC)

It's ALMOST THE NEW YEAR!!!! :D well, it is in Australia.... rarity is worst pony 19:21, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
A new tropical wave is being monitored by the NHC, and is on the 5-day outlook at 0/10. I believe gradual development is possible in the long run, and I won't be surprised if we see Grace from this AOI. But development should only be slow, and due to the unfavorable conditions around the Atlantic, who knows what this system might do. -- Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me)  06:05, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Grace this is supposed to be? Hope becomes a C5 out in the Atlantic! Remember to reply back on my talk page! Hurricanes are awesome 23:50, September 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, it's supposed to be Grace. And it won't come even close to C5, as there hasn't been one since 2007 and the conditions throughout the Atlantic just won't support a storm strengthening that much. We also don't need to reply this back on your talk, since we can reply here. Back to the AOI, it's now 0/20. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 01:47, September 3, 2015 (UTC)

Now with a 40% chance for development, it can possibly become "Grace" or at least "Six-L" when over the Cape-Verde islands. Puffle 2005 - 2015  🌀KATRINA🌀  21:58, September 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * More specifically, it's 20% (48 hours) and 40% (5 days). It is also a good time to remind everyone to Beware The First Storm Of September!!!!!!! Though I'm not sure how the adage will hold up this year :/ -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Gah Steven, when you say Eric's great adage it reminds me of...just how much I miss him. :( he hasn't posted once since the end of 2012 season, with Sandy. Anyways, back to this, it's been invested and it could become something in the long run, but development, if any, will be slow to occur. It probably won't become anything until it reaches the area where Erika formed, if that. Ryan1000 02:19, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

I miss Steven  Eric too. I mean, I didn't know him much because I joined in 2012 and wasn't that active on this wiki until late 2013. However, I've gone back through the years on these forums and I've laughed at some of his older posts, a lot. Anyways, this, as Ryan said, won't do much, so I don't think it'll hold up this year. Also, I'm thinking we should make an adage for 'I' storms, for obvious reasons. leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 23:48, September 4, 2015 (UTC) (edited) (Why did I put Steven instead of Eric? Typical leeboy100 screwup)


 * Lol, stuff like that sometimes happens when you either type too fast or are not careful. XD Anyway, I also barely know Eric myself, since I joined the wiki in July 2013, but I've been reading the forums on this wiki since around the time of Hurricane Sandy. The adage certainly won't hold up this year for sure; this invest is looking likely to be a fishspinner. It's up to 70/80, BTW. Looks like Grace will be used for an actually normal storm this year! Unlike that strange 2009 incarnation. And lastly, an "I" storm adage would be a good idea, due to really obvious reasons. I tried making it up back during Ingrid in September 2013, calling it "Beware The "I" Storm!", but this year looks likely to not produce a destructive "I" storm due to how inactive the year was. Unless this "I" storm is a major in the Caribbean in October. Who knows what will happen, in the future of this season. I will say my new adage, with links provided, once we reach our "I" storm. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:59, September 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Woah, this thing's organizing pretty fast, it's now up to 70/90 and could become a depression as soon as tomorrow. But the faster it intensifies, the more likely it'll recurve north and east and remain at sea. Ryan1000 02:22, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to find Tropical Depression Six or potentially Tropical Storm Grace tomorrow morning. This wave is really getting its act together. I don't believe this one will get to be too strong, maybe just a potent tropical storm. Owen 04:43, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Replying to what Steve said about the first storm of September, we may or may not get a C5 Grace like This Prediction I found on Hypothetical Hurricanes. Puffle  2005 - 2015  🌀KATRINA🌀  13:39, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven
Now numbered and forecast to become Grace as it heads west towards the Lesser Antilles in the long run, but the area is still overrun by strong wind shear and stable air. It may not make it past the area where Danny and Erika died. Ryan1000 16:04, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

YES!!! WE HAVE IT!!! WE HAVE DEPRESSION SEVEN! Puffle 2005 - 2015  🌀KATRINA🌀  17:27, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Grace
AL, 07, 2015090518,, BEST, 0, 125N, 257W, 35, 1007, -- Amazing Grace has arrived!  Owen   19:46, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

A bit late. But, grace is here. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  22:04, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * NHC confirmed, but the track forecast is pretty much the same. Ryan1000 22:45, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yay, I guess.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 23:46, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Grace has finally came to us! She should gradually strengthen over the next few days, but the hostile Atlantic could probably prevent her from reaching hurricane strength. It is only forecast to strengthen to 55 knots (65 mph), but it would probably not be out of the question for Grace to achieve hurricane strength with all the ocean in her path. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk.  •   See My Edits   •   ✉ (Email me)  21:12, September 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * Darn editing conflicts. Anyways, what I was going to say was "Amazing" Grace is predicted to take a path similar to Erika. We may need to watch this, Dominica does not need another tropical storm. Erika has already done enough.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 21:15, September 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Not going to happen leeboy, Grace is moving much faster than Erika and it'll be encountering a crapload of strong wind shear when it nears the lessers. That shear, which could be up to 40 knots, should tear Grace down to a depression or dissipate it completely. Ryan1000 01:20, September 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That's good. Hopefully that happens  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 01:32, September 7, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Grace
Now down to a tropical depression. Bye Grace! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:20, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

it looks like a open wave in visible. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:40, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Grace
What a graceless waste of a name. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:35, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * You mean what a dis-Grace-ful storm, right? (forgive the pun, I couldn't resist). Ryan1000 19:15, September 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Same difference XD --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:18, September 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * This storm fell from grace. Am I right?  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:05, September 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Storms can't fall from heights they never reached ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:18, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * True. XD  leeboy100 My Talk! 22:51, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * what a nonGraceful waste of name. lets hope for no Graceless wastes of names. and no Grace-like storms please -<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:52, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I remember my thoughts I typed out a few days ago saying this could have possibly have a shot at hurricane status, but I guess not. What a disgrace of a TC! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:58, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * It is being monitored at near 0%. But I really don't think it'll ever redevelop, as environmental conditions are pretty hostile around there. Since it most likely won't redevelop, its still a graceless disgrace. :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:08, September 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Still being monitored at 0/0. NHC, we all know this won't redevelop. I think they're just monitoring it because of the rain it's producing in the Leewards. But it should die soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:20, September 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * For the record, it's off the TWO now. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:27, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Newly invested, and is at 10/20 on the official TWO. Could develop into Henri within the next few days. Owen 00:20, September 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now up to 40%. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, September 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now 60/60. Henri is almost here! If Henri forms, however, it'll likely be a fairly quick stunt as it will be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday. Owen 00:42, September 9, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
NHC issued new advisories for the newly formed T.D. 8. Must have been quick: the first surface wind field map for the depression is centered south of Nigeria. Jake52 (talk) 07:16, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Nigeria? You mean Newfoundland. This thing is going to be heading north and then east, but it doesn't have much time to strengthen. Could become Henri briefly. Ryan1000 19:15, September 9, 2015 (UTC)042643R_sm.gif
 * Nope...Nigeria. More Ghana, though. Jake52 (talk) 22:31, September 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's usually a mistake by the NHC...the map is fixed now.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:10, September 9, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Henri
He's here! Owen 02:43, September 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Eh, you beat me by a few minutes. Well, forecast to head northeast and out to sea, just offshore of Newfoundland. Ryan1000 02:47, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I haven't seen such a pathetic-looking TS in this basin since Jose four years ago. So much for me winning in the betting pools, looks like the name I voted to be the strongest will instead replace Claudette/Erika as the weakest XD --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:41, September 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Woah, Erika was the weakest storm of the season?!?!?! Wow. Anyways this storm looks pathetic, might be a biggure fail than Dis-grace.  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:53, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Crazy to think about, isn't it? Erika and Claudette are currently tied at 45 kts/1003 mbar, but the way Henri's going, he looks poised to beat them. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:16, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * He's looking pretty pathetic at this point, I agree. Henri literally came out of nowhere; I haven't been able to really look at NHC the past few days due to school. I think Henri could possibly beat them as the weakest storm of the season, but we'll have to wait and see. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:01, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that advisories should have been discontinued just now. This is an animation of surface wind flow underneath Henri; what I'm seeing is an open trough, not a tropical cyclone. If the next ATCF update comes along 3 hours from now and I see a "TS," "TD," or even a "LO" where a "DB" or "WV" should be, I'll be shocked. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:17, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still a tropical storm per ATCF, WTH?? AL, 08, 2015091112,, BEST, 0, 373N, 598W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 150, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HENRI, M, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:48, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Henri
ATCF apparently spoke too soon, Dylan. NHC issued their last advisory now. Henri out-failed Claudette. Ryan1000 22:28, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

Another day, another fail. This link pretty much sums up Henri in 5 seconds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A   leeboy100 9/11 never forget 22:44, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Henri out-failed most storms that have occurred in any TC basin tbh. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:08, September 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yep, and it's a shame too, I like the name Henry. I used to have a close friend with that name in school. (except spelled with a 'y' instead of an 'i'). I haven't seen him in years though, not sure if he's even alive... JK, he's probably still alive. Anyways, this might have failed worse than Failecia. OK, it didn't fail that bad. I remember last year we all wanted Fay to be a "fayl" (one of Ryan's many great puns) but now we've had enough fails! >:(  leeboy100 9/11 never forget 23:44, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'd say that this out-failed Felicia. At least Felicia looked like a tropical cyclone. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:51, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I know, Henri epically failed to extreme proportions. Also, at peak strength, Henri's pressure was 1008 mbars, while Felicia's was 1004 mbars. This proves that Henri certainly out-failed Felicia, a.k.a Failicia. One can not simply, fail this bad. Henri... you just hijacked and stole a name off the Atlantic lists. This might have failed on the scale of 2013's worst storms (ex. Jerry), Karina in 2008, Fausto in 2014, a few 2011 fails like Jose, and 2007's Jerry. Bye, fail! ;) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:01, September 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Jose was epic...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:54, September 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * The only epic things about Jose were that it developed out of nowhere, and looked really small and strange on satellite. Otherwise, it was a weak TS, and since it failed to affect land, was an epic fail of a storm. Just because a storm has epic characteristics doesn't mean that it's not an epic fail. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 04:13, September 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Most of the time Henri is used for an epic fail. Like Larry I put them on the bottom.I hope maybe once they will be strong hurricanes.181.210.32.220 02:25, September 17, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: ECMWF GoM storm
Euro is showing a storm by the end of the 00z run. its very consistent <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:34, September 9, 2015 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
suprise! <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:53, September 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * It looks like since the other system in the Atlantic will be Ida, this one will be Joaquin if it does get named. It will be nice to finally see the name used. Owen 00:05, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * It doesn't have much time, it'll remain stationary for another day before moving northwest into Mexico. If it wants to become Joaquin, it better get on with it. Ryan1000 07:51, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's just kind of a failed invest. :P All it'll ever do is just bring quite a rainy day for northern Mexico and surrounding areas. I'd be really shocked if it developed. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:23, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.Over Africa
Expected to move off the coast soon and has a 20% chance of developing in 5 days. Though it's probably going to be moving over the same general area where Grace, Danny, and Erika died in the long run. Ryan1000 11:24, September 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think it might have a shot at being Ida, but then it'll be another weakling in the same area that Grace, Danny, and Erika moved through. Unfavorable conditions continue to dominate the Atlantic, so expect a weak TS at most. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:03, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks like we may be getting Ida soon. I'm really surprised from this year that we've gotten this many storms already, the amount we have right now is around where I believed the final totals would be. I can see 2-3 more storms easily coming out of this season before it wraps up. Owen 02:18, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

For a super El Nino year, 8 storms thus far isn't half bad. Conditions could improve for development of this disturbance in the Central Atlantic, but it'll probably be recurving out to sea if it gets too strong. Ryan1000 22:40, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

I agree, Ryan. This season is actually somewhat interesting and we've even had a terrible storm (not that that's a good thing) Kind of like 1992 it was an El Nino and had interesting storms and one really destructive one  leeboy100 9/11 never forget 23:05, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

This has a chance to become the 'I' storm, and since Eric's adage is so great, I decided to make one related to 'I' storms. I've thought long and hard on this but here goes: Beware The "I" Of The Storm

But no matter how good that adage is it can't replace Eric's adage, nor can I replace Eric. leeboy100 9/11 never forget 23:01, September 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * I actually think that badge was well-done and could become nearly as famous as Eric's eventually. Let's just wait and see. Anyway, the system really lacks convection currently, but it could still become something in the long run. 0/50 as of now. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:04, September 12, 2015 (UTC)

Just remember that an El Nino can't always mean that we don't have a historic storm. El Niño does destructive things to people <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  01:17, September 12, 2015 (UTC) (BTW, i know 2014 wasn't an El Nino, but i just had to put Odile in there.)
 * aaaa. stupid edit conflict. took me 3 hours to post lol. #Typical-Screw-up <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  01:32, September 12, 2015 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Invested. And 50/80. Here comes our next storm, Ida!! I think it will be a fishspinner, so maybe the "Beware the I of the storm" badge won't really work this year. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:24, September 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, Steve, the badge could work if Ida becomes a significant hurricane for the fishes, which can't be ruled out since it will likely miss the conditions that systems like Danny, Erika and Grace had to deal with. Maybe we'll see a Category 5 for the first time since 2007 (doubt it but I'm wishcasting here). We'll see. It wouldn't be too shocking to see Ida, Joaquin, and Kate by the time the month ends. Owen 00:05, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Should become Ida soon, it's at 80/90 and conditions favor development. Ryan1000 07:51, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * If I'm looking at the same system, it's down to 60/60. It might still have a shot to be Ida, but I'm pretty much starting to doubt it at this point, due to the upper-level winds it's about to face. But I do think it still has a slight shot to be Ida, but it'll most likely only be a weakling if it ever does become something. And Owen, I'd be better off using the adage for systems that cause destruction on land. Even a Cat. 5 fishspinner might not make the adage since it still is not a danger to landmasses. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:21, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
no comments... <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:41, September 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * Um... well then! Not expected to become named. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:41, September 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * TD 9 doesn't seem to be a particularly lucky number with this naming list, the only time it did anything significant was Frederic in 1979. The TD 9 of 2003 didn't become named, and Grace '09, Grace '97, Fabian '91, and Henri '85 were weaklings, this one probably will be too. Ryan1000 21:00, September 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hopefully this weakling won't become named. Thankfully it's not expected too, but I'd say it's still not out of the question it could steal a name. TD 9 will have to be unlucky again this year. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:43, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was looking ok on satellite 12 hours ago, but it looks to have lost a lot of it's deep convection and could be remnants soon. At least it wasn't a 90% bust, which almost happened. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:10, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * A 90% bust would probably be the biggest bust possible, since "near 100%" systems would almost certainly, if not certainly, be declared as a TD. Luckily it wasn't such a huge bust. Anyway, it shouldn't be named at this rate, as it's getting worse in organization and is still 30 mph. Ida will have to wait. Just be glad it didn't go to this weakling. And welcome to the wiki, Raindrop! :) <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:59, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Thank you! Anyway, the depression doesn't even look like a tropical system anymore as it's lost almost all it's convection. I wouldn't be surprised if it's declared remnants in the next advisory at this point, and even the 70/70 invest looks better organized. Well, at least it formed.


 * Edit: I pretty much just said that lol.


 * Update: Latest advisory still calls it a tropical depression even though Wunderground shows absolutely no deep convection. :/~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:51, September 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * Probably won't become named at this point, it's devoid of nearly all thunderstorm convection and will probably die tomorrow. Ryan1000 23:22, September 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's somehow still managing to stay a depression, producing new bursts of convection once again just as it looked completely dead. It still should die soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:22, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * It is STILL a TD. I think it should die later today. It is lasting longer than I thought...<font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:53, September 19, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Nine
Well, it finally died. Pretty interesting to track as far as tropical depressions go. It fought to stay a tropical depression for longer then forecast, but it was still a TD nonetheless. Goodbye, TD9, and good thing you never got named! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:54, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, it's a good thing that the TD has never gotten named. It would have sucked if Ida was used for this system instead of the other one. Bye TD! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 21:01, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * I see a lot of deep convection has appeared next to the location of Nine's remnant. Is it trying to reform again or something? :/ ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:31, September 20, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.East-Central Atlantic
It's well northwest of the AOI near the coast of Africa and will probably follow in Henri's footsteps and head west-northwest, before turning north then northeast. 10/20 for now. Ryan1000 22:40, September 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * It might have a slight shot at being Ida or Joaquin, but I hold some slight doubts about that. Environmental conditions aren't the most favorable, and the system looks pretty disorganized currently. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:05, September 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * This is how to describe this fail of an AOI: Did-you-mean-7f006835fbe15076035aa5a3d6ff92d9.png <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  17:25, September 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Those pictures are hilarious XD, but it's still at 10/10 on the TWO. It might be a little too early for these pictures, I would have posted it when it was dead. I don't think it'll develop anyway. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:22, September 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * And it has poofed from the tropical weather outlook. What a "Fail AOI", I have to agree with you Puffle. :D <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:36, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.Behind 93L
Another system has emerged off of Africa, this one is at 30% for 5 days and will probably follow in 93L's footsteps. Ryan1000 07:51, September 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * If this becomes Joaquin, then I want it to be a Category 2 storm out to the sea. 🌀 are awesome🌀 21:09, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, at this rate it may just be Ida. The 60/60 invest to its west doesn't have much time to become something, and if it does, a minimum TS at most. This AOI could only be Joaquin instead if the other invest starts firing up and becoming named. Anyway, a named storm is very likely out of this, and the latest TWO pins it at 30/60. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:25, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
No one's updated this yet I see...was invested a while back, but since steering currents for this and TD 9 are weak, it won't be moving very far in the short term. Ryan1000 21:00, September 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * Right now, the invest is pinned at the 70/80 mark; Ida should possibly come out of this invest soon. But if we do see it, it'd probably be a TS at peak strength, and at very most, a minor hurricane. Though it could be too early for forecasting, but I still hope for this to be a hurricane. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:45, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/70. If it wants to be Ida, it'd better do it soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:03, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's running out of time to become Ida now, the NHC is starting to say things about the unfavorable conditions that TD 9 has had to deal with. Even if it forms, it will be weak at this point unless it decides to be one of those storms that fights unfavorable conditions. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:32, September 18, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten
Looks like a depression managed to happen nonetheless. Forecast to eventually peak at 50 kts. After Grace, Henri, and TD 9, I'm not holding my breath, but we'll see. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:42, September 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * I didn't even know that you could have two tropical systems that close together! Hopefully this will absorb TD9 and become a hurricane, I'm sick of tropical storms that look horrible on satellite. At least after being an invest for almost a week, it finally developed. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:08, September 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * It took a long time to develop due to weak steering currents in the area, and they're going to remain weak as this heads northwest and probably will become Ida. Ryan1000 23:22, September 18, 2015 (UTC)



Tropical Storm Ida
Ninth of the season might become a hurricane. I am expecting a cat 2 of this. We might end with 13 or 14 named storms if 96L develops into Joaquin.Allanjeffs 03:12, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hello, Ida! The NHC forecasts a strong (70 mph) tropical storm out of her. I wouldn't put a hurricane out of the question, and it would be nice to see a hurricane especially due to the fact we've only seen two of them this year. Owen 04:16, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hello, Ida. My question is will the 'I' curse continue with Ida? I want to remind everyone to Beware The "I" Of The Storm  leeboy100 My Talk! 04:37, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't really think it will continue since Ida looks like a fishspinner, but I don't know about the long run. Anyways, hello Ida! Looks like it will become stationary at the end of the forecast. I think it will become a hurricane. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:56, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Steven, I know the curse probably won't continue, I just really wanted to use that adage :D. I actually wouldn't mind if Ida stopped the curse because, Erika's done enough destruction already.  leeboy100 My Talk! 19:33, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Anyone notice how big the swath of Ida's tropical storm wind probabilities get later on? This could be a pretty large storm if that's true. Would be nice if it becomes a hurricane and develops an eye. Because come on, you can't have an I named storm with no eye! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:30, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Leeboy, I wouldn't mind that either. But there's still a chance 2016 could have a destructive I storm, we'll have to wait and see on that. And Raindrop, I saw what you did there (I and eye rhyme) :3 <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 21:04, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * I just noticed that all the currently active tropical systems are heavily sheared. Why must there be wind shear everywhere? This storm still hasn't even been able to exceed 40 mph due to all this shear, and the center is tens of miles away from the deep convection... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:28, September 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * Forecast to stay in place for four days, strengthening to 65 mph, but then levelling out in intensity due to it's own upwelling. However, it's forecast to become a hurricane when it starts moving again in 5 days! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:43, September 21, 2015 (UTC)

That forecast track is very strange.[]   leeboy100 Rita 2005-2015 21:35, September 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * The latest forecast discussion says that Ida is embedded within the southern end of a mid-level trough, so that could be why. The forecast for the 5th day is down to 65 mph, but I still think a hurricane is possible from this. We'll have to just wait and see. Though the shear could prevent it from strengthening so much over its lifetime. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:57, September 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Come on! 🌀 (talk) 01:07, September 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * This storm is fighting shear... and it seems to be losing. Those models forecasting degeneration into a trough just might be right. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:41, September 24, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ida
Ida's not doing very well against this shear. It's no longer a tropical storm now and looks horrible on satellite. The forecast still predicts minor restrengthening, but the NHC is saying there's more shear then originally forecast a few days ago, which is bad news for Ida. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:15, September 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's now predicted to be a depression throughout the rest of the forecast period, which is pretty strange. Ida is really fighting for her life against all the wind shear. Maybe if the shear ever calms down and she survives like a fighter, she could pull off a Philippe and restrengthen to as strong as hurricane status by next week or so. That would be really unlikely and I doubt that will happen, but who knows? <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:48, September 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ida just keeps on idling... still a TD per ATCF, NHC now predicts it to die in a couple days. So much for that hurricane... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:10, September 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's down to 30mph/1007mb. So much for an awesome storm. I guess Ida isn't really the fighting type. Ida should be gone soon, goodbye to a weak storm that was once supposed to be a hurricane... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:35, September 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * At least we've had a major this season (Danny), otherwise this is turning out to be a re-2013 for the Atlantic (although in this case, such was more-or-less expected, while 2013's impotence was a frustrating surprise). I guess not all Atlantic seasons can be like last year's - only 8 storms, but 3 in 4 became hurricanes, of which 1 in 3 became majors, and one of those majors (Gonzalo) was the strongest Atlantic storm in over four years! All with relatively little death or destruction, Gonzalo perhaps being the only exception. As for Ida, I think it's safe to say that it's only the second 'I' storm since 1989 not to reach hurricane strength. If only it had managed to out-fail Henri - I just remembered that such would have landed me a victory in the betting pools :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:33, September 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * Ida should be a remnant low soon. It's been quite weaker than I expected, due to the wind shear around the area. The "I" storms were always extremely lucky in terms of strength if it really is only the second storm beginning with "I" since 1989 not to become a hurricane. The curse has been broken this year, apparently. The last "I" storm to fail to become a hurricane was Ingrid in 2007. Anyway, bye Ida! It sucks that wind shear had to destroy this thing. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:31, September 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * Ida might just not be done yet. It's back to 35mph, and although it's supposed to degenerate into a remnant low still, it's supposed to regenerate a couple days later. Ida might just not fail. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:58, September 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Maybe once Ida moves into the area where it is forecast to regenerate, conditions will become a bit more favorable. It would be nice just to see Ida rack up some decent ACE. Owen 03:46, September 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Once again, the NHC keeps Ida as a tropical depression for the rest of the forecast period. I'd really be shocked if Ida actually did that and not degenerate or strengthen back to a TS along the way. I predict that later on in her life, sometime after the 5-day forecast, she could have a shot at hurricane status as more favorable conditions come to her. Ida is really hanging on and fighting for her life! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:54, September 26, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ida
So the longest-lasting storm of the season peaked as a 45-knot TS. What... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:51, September 27, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.Remnants of Ida
A tropical disturbence which is the remnants of Ida has popped up on the TWO and it has a 20% of regeneration in five days. (Although 0% in the next two) I hope Ida will have a second life as a hurricane! (Although this is very wishful) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:25, September 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * 10/40. Ida might be coming back guys! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:47, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * All of the attention is on Joaquin right now. However, the 60% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone again during the next 5 days would mean that Ida may redeem herself a system worth tracking. Owen 00:21, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Um, this is a bit confusing now because the TWO now says that the frontal trough absorbed the remnants of Ida, but this is still an area of interest? So, I guess we have Kate on the way as well. I'll start a new section under "90L.INVEST" as I do not think this will be Ida should it become a tropical cyclone. Owen 19:04, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hmm, that's true. It probably will be named Kate at this point, but nonetheless it's likely to regenerate. I still hope they decide to call it Ida, even if absorbed by a trough. Anyway it's 50/80 now, and I'll post anything else under 90L. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:13, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well, the curse of the 'I's has not happened this year, but with what Joaquin may do, that's probably a good thing. So, my new adage didn't happen. Also, I'm not sad that my adage didn't hold in it's first year, because I don't want destruction, it's just that the 'I' names are cursed.  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:41, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
I doubt this will become much, but a new AOI is at 0/20 in the GOM. I'd be surprised if it became named, since these type of systems usually don't look like they will become much at all. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:48, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's up to 10/30 now. Yes, I know you've never seen me here before, but I've been kinda stalking all the discussions on hurricanes here lol and decided to actually post something. Anyway, this system does seem to have a lot of deep convection, but it's all really on one side (does that mean wind shear?) I do think this system could form as it seems to have a lot of moisture, but will probably be weak if it does anyway. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:01, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * There might be wind shear in the area, but I'm not quite sure. I still don't think it'll become much in the short term, but it could have a chance once it crosses Florida. It's possible Ida will come from this in the long run. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:01, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's past Florida and is now up to 20/40. This could become something, although I think TD10 will take the name Ida instead of this. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:09, September 18, 2015 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
This should end up being Joaquin, and if he does in fact develop it will be the first time he's been used to name a system, and will bring us up two more storms ahead of 2014. Owen 04:19, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is at 20/40 but I am not too sure about development since it is in only somewhat favorable conditions. Joaquin is possible from this, but then it'll probably only be a weakling. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:58, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * note that 96L are infact Grace's remnants! and its 20/30 <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  20:38, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Really?! O.O So that's where Grace's remnants ended up, I guess. And again, I doubt we'll see much from this, unless it rapidly organizes. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 21:06, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wait, so Grace's remnant has been around for THAT long? If that's true, Grace and her remnant have lasted almost as long as Kilo! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:27, September 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's down to 10/10! Guess what... it won't redevelop! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:58, September 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO now! Goodbye for good, Grace! :) <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:49, September 24, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.Near Central America
It's not invested yet, but it could become something as it heads north towards the southern GOM over the next several days. Ryan1000 14:18, September 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * I think this might be our Joaquin. I can't wait to see the name used for the first time ever in this basin! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:55, September 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still 0/20. By next week, it'll become something. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:32, September 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * Up to 30/40. Joaquin might be coming out of this! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:55, September 26, 2015 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
40/40 on the TWO now. It continues to organize but is now in a race with Invest 98 to grab the name Joaquin. If both of the invests develop, we could have the chance to track Ida, Joaquin and Kate simultaneously in the tropics. Owen 05:42, September 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * I just discovered something on Jeff Masters' wunderblog that showed a 43 kt wind near the LLC. I am really interested to see which one will be Joaquin and which will be Kate. Owen 00:18, September 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * FWIW this has been off the TWO for a while now. At this point it'll probably become Joaquin food. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:12, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * "Joaquin food" I like the way that sounds. And yes, it's not on wunderground anymore either, so Joaquin has claimed his first victim.
 * So, goodbye Joaquin food.  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:46, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (September 24 - October 2)
I really think that it would be a good idea to start tracking tropical waves for possible signs of TC development. This one is currently extending from the Cape Verdes (at 16N27W) down to 05N28W. Satellite imagery shows quite a bit of moisture over the area, and like all tropical waves, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a named storm in the very long run. To know about these tropical waves, they are in the Tropical Weather Discussions. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:55, September 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Axis now extends from 13N30W to 03N30W, and it's west of the Cape Verdes currently. Convection still looks pretty good in the wave, and it could still have potential in the long run. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:35, September 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now goes from 13N32W to 05N33W. It continues moving westward. I'll post the next comment on this wave probably when either it organizes more or it closes in on the Lessers eventually. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:58, September 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's been moving pretty slowly. It's still only in the central Atlantic and extending from 10N44W to 16N38W. All deep convection has apparently dissipated, but I will still track it in case it redevelops convection. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:58, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * And...it has dissipated in the middle of the ocean. This one just failed. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:22, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Near Bermuda
Popped up on the TWO and is at 20/20. Might have a slight shot before an encounter with upper-level winds. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:58, September 26, 2015 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
The race to become Joaquin has officially began! 40/40 on the official TWO and looks to be quickly organizing. I have a little bit of a feel this could be something like Henri. Owen 05:42, September 27, 2015 (UTC)

This looks like a td or on a verge of becoming one. Might become Joaquin tomorrow. Hope we can reach Larry or Mindy this year.Allanjeffs 22:43, September 27, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven
Meh. Not even forecast to become named. If that pans out, this will be the fifth Atlantic TC in a row to peak below 50 kts. Not even 2013 pulled that off. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:00, September 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Erm... scratch that... "...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY..." 40 kts of failure expected. Crap... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:53, September 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * Dylan you might be wrong as models are predicting a re-Sandy with this storm and even stronger. Hope they are wrong. Poor NE if it verifies.Allanjeffs 23:03, September 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Which models are you referring to? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:03, September 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * You might want to see the HRWF and most model brings td 11 by different intensities to the NE.Allanjeffs 00:22, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Allan, I think it might be a little early to tell. It'd be nice just to track a decent hurricane that recurves out to sea instead. There is much uncertainty regarding the future intensity of this system and it will all depend on the environment. Anyway, based on the latest DVORAK reading (28/2345 UTC 26.7N 70.1W T2.5/2.5 11L), as far as I know, we are almost certain now to see the name Joaquin be used for the first time at 11 pm. Owen 00:38, September 29, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Joaquin
Owen nailed it. I don't like the looks on this thing. The predicted peak intensity has been rapidly rising over the past couple of advisories, and now-Joaquin is currently forecast to be nearing New Jersey as a 55-kt storm. It will be moving poleward like Irene, so it won't have Sandy's constant onshore flow, but even a strong TS in that part of America can never be a good thing. Suddenly that first forecast doesn't seem so bad after all... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:42, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dylan, you beat me to putting this section on here too lol. Anyway, I was hoping we would make it to Joaquin this season, and we have! We have surpassed the activity both last year and the activity in 2009, so it's pretty interesting that we could see have a couple more storms left of the season. Overall, this season really can be compared to 2013 minus Danny. But, it only takes one to make a season memorable so we'll see what Joaquin ends up doing. Owen 02:48, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * You're right, it does only take one; Joaquin would make two. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:50, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I meant to put "memorable for the United States". But yeah, I hope Joaquin isn't that bad in the Northeast, particularly New Jersey, as in Hurricane Sandy my grandparents' beach houses were completely damaged and the Jersey Shore in general does not need another damaging storm. Although the forecast only shows a 65 mph tropical storm in that area at that point in time, I have a somewhat bad feeling about this one. Owen 03:41, September 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin is really looking good on sattelite so it might become a hurricane faster than thought.also 99L is not looking to bad might become Kate as it already has winds of 40mph. It just need a better and tada. I hope we can reach Mindy or Nicholas before all is done.Allanjeffs 04:51, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic isn't doing half-bad for a super El Nino year, if Danny didn't become a major hurricane we could draw a lot of parallels between this year and 2013, though the notable storm we had (thus far) this year was Erika and not Ingrid. Joaquin could very well become a hurricane as it moves slowly west over the next day or two before quickly turning north towards New England. However Owen, you're right, the GFDL and HWRF actually do take this moving in an onshore direction over New Jersey, which is the last thing they want after what they got with Sandy, though the GFS doesn't even complete it's forecast near New England, and if it pans out Joaquin could turn out to sea. That would be a best-case scenario, but it all depends on how that trough near the east coast behaves over the next week. If it stays where it is and pulls Joaquin northward it'll hit New England, but if it moves east and out to sea, Joaquin will too. Ryan1000 12:15, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Latest ATCF update catapults Joaquin to 55 kts/992 mbar, making it the third-strongest storm of the season. It will be very interesting to see what the NHC comes out with for a track and intensity forecast in a couple hours. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:12, September 29, 2015 (UTC)

Nothing to see here, please disperse.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:25, September 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hey, at least it isn't a ball of failure like the original forecast had stated it to be. There is a very high likelihood that we will get our third hurricane, and potentially major hurricane which most definitely can not be discounted. Owen 19:27, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Frankly I'd take a ball of failure over that HWRF forecast. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:03, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * That's true, but hopefully it stays offshore. New NHC forecast just in, expected to now peak as a 90 mph hurricane, so I would say that Cat 2 status is now on the table and Category 3 status isn't too far-fetched either. The warm water isn't really benefiting the United States either. Owen 21:00, September 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * All models now bring Joaquin to cat 4 or high end cat 3. Now even the Gfs brings Joaquin to a landfall at Maryland/Virginia border.That would be very bad to those places if that forecast pans out.  For the sake of the US I hope not.Going to wait and see the Euro and the track it might show. But base on intensity models the NHC might need to up the intensity they have Joaquin peaking  in their advisories.Allanjeffs 22:56, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Play nice, Joaquin. Become a major if you insist, but no land for you! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:09, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Nearly a hurricane (60 kts/988 mbar), forecast peak raised to Category 2 (90 kts), Hurricane Watches up for portions of the Bahamas. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:55, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * This thing is passing over record warm SST's for the area it's passing over and shear could drop below 15 knots on Wednesday. These conditions easily support Joaquin becoming a strong cat 3 or 4 hurricane, but whether or not it will hit the US all depends on how that trough off the east coast interacts with Joaquin. Best-case scenario, it could force Joaquin far enough east to remain offshore, but some of the models see a ridge of high pressure off of New England strengthening at the same time, and that could trap Joaquin between the trough and the ridge, forcing Joaquin due north very fast towards the same area where hurricanes Carol and Bob hit, or Joaquin could even expand enough to push against the trough and head northwest towards Virginia and Maryland in Chesapeake Bay, I can't remember the last time a strong hurricane hit there. And god forbid that happen, the tucked-back position of Chesapeake Bay would easily funnel a hurricane's storm surge to enormous, unimaginable heights. Ryan1000 03:28, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * I can't believe that a storm that was originally supposed to peak as a tropical depression is turning into what could be a monsterous storm for the U.S east coast. This storm has a shot of getting it's name retired from it's first use if some of the models are right... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:35, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Waiting for the Euro´s run to see if it becomes the last model to join the NE lanfall point as the CMC is now with the NAM,GFS,UKMET and HWRF in showing a lanfall. Joaquin for sure will be retire if it makes landfall in there.  Might not even affect the NE to be retire as models are predicting a cat 4 in the Bahamas. That is really dangerous. The GFS put Joaquin at cat 5 the same as the HRWF hope this start weaking but is looking good satellites. Might be a 80mph storm now.Allanjeffs 05:02, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * The Euro is the only model that takes this out to sea, but with a 1031 mbar high off of New England, I, unfortunately, doubt that will happen. Still not yet a hurricane, but part of the western portion was eroded away lately, it might take until tomorrow to become a hurricane after all. But because shear will lessen it's grip on Joaquin as it rockets north or north-northwest this weekend, it could actually strengthen to a cat 2 or 3 as it heads north towards the mid Atlantic or New England. Ryan1000 11:47, September 30, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin
Intermediate advisory puts Joaquin at 75mph, making it a hurricane. It could be higher then that though because it looks well organized on satellite and has a pressure of 971 mb, which is usually seen in at least a 90mph storm. The Bahamas now have a hurricane warning... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:42, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Is it safe to say that the 'J' name on this list is cursed? Back in 1985, Juan caused severe flooding damage in Louisiana and Virginia. In 2003, Juan's second and final incarnation was the worst hurricane to hit Canada in decades. And now in 2015, Juan's replacement, Joaquin, could become one of the most destructive natural disasters in American history if one of those model solutions (such as by HWRF and GFS) pans out. Three uses of the 'J' name on this list, and all three either were serious disasters (both Juans), or have a decent possibility of being such (Joaquin). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:32, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is a threat to Bahamas as of the moment, and yes, to the U.S. East Coast too, in the long run. I can see an Irene '11 in this, although I may be wrong. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:13, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Forecast to become a major, and the NHC says it might be conservative. 80mph/971mb. If it manages to keep organizing this fast we could have a category 4. :O ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:03, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * 75 kts/968 mbar per the 2pm interim advisory. For what it's worth, Joaquin has surpassed Danny - a major hurricane! - as the strongest storm of the season in terms of pressure, and is currently tied with Fred for second place in terms of winds (though Joaquin is all but certain to overtake Fred, and may even overtake Danny too). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:49, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * According to the forecast, the Bahamas may be getting hurricane force winds for 12 hours straight. That's really not good... And with a pressure reading that low, I bet Joaquin's wind speed is going to be rapidly rising. It's a very interesting unpredictable storm minus the impacts it's likely about to cause. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:08, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Joaquin is really beginning to scare the Northeast. Honestly speaking, Joaquin should be able to become a Category 4 for the time he will be spending over warm waters. It could be a re-Irene scenario, but hopefully not a re-Sandy. Owen 19:09, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Eh...maybe, but there were 4 instances on this list when the "J" name wasn't even used due to inactivity. I wouldn't say this year's "J" name is as cursed as, say, list 5 of the Atlantic, which still has yet to go one season of usage without having at least 1 retired name. But back to Joaquin, hory sheet, this thing is now expected to become a major hurricane, and it could even become a minimal cat 4, and then head straight into New Jersy or even, god forbid, New York City as a strong category 1, 2, or even 3 hurricane. It won't be as widespread as Sandy was when it hit almost 3 years ago because it's smaller and will be moving faster, but it could be stronger at landfall, which would mean a bigger storm surge in some areas near the coastline. This could get real nasty for the folks in the northeast. Ryan1000 19:53, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * I lose internet for almost a week (we've had several terrible thunderstorms messing up the power) and we're on the 'J' name. I could have sworn this was an El Nino year. So why all the activity in the Atlantic all of a sudden? This doesn't look good. Also, as several people above stated, the 'J' names on this list seem to be cursed. Also 968 is pretty low for a cat 1.  (Didn't get to use this signature much, and I'm about to chnage it -->)  leeboy100 Rita 2005-2015 21:02, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * The latest 5pm advisory came out and dropped the pressure down by 1 milibar, but the winds are the same. Joaquin is also expected to move further west now and storm into Chesapeake Bay and Virginia as a minimal hurricane or tropical storm. If it hits there as a hurricane, it would be the first hurricane to hit there since the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane if I recall correctly, but that storm hit the coast head-on, while Joaquin will be coming in from the south. But that's still a highly-populated and highly inexperienced area of the united states for hurricanes. Ryan1000 21:12, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * There's an eye appearing on satellite now, I think the next advisory might put it at 90mph. And the fact that the new forecast brings it onshore as a category 2 is not good. The edge of the tropical storm force winds have now reached the Bahamas, as well. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:48, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * WOW! Joaquin is now a Category 2! He is really impressing. Owen 23:59, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin is really intensifying might become an upper cat 4 at this rating. pressure is 954 a little low for a cat 2. The Bahamas should really be preparing for a big and strong storm. Models might not be that crazy as how fast Joaquin is intensifying. NC to Bermuda should be watching it very closely. Allanjeffs 00:05, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * And I thought it was going to be 90mph. Wow this thing's intensifying fast, I think that a major is certain now and a category 4 is likely. I don't even think category 5 can be ruled out. Run, people of the Bahamas! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:09, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin is probably a major now they are  flight level winds at 113knots an surface winds at 102 knots. enough for upgrade. Cat 5 is not out of the question as the HWRF and GFS show them on their tracks,but I think it might peak at upper cat 4.Allanjeffs 00:15, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

This is becoming a very dangerous situation. At the rate Joaquin is intensifying, Joaquin may make a run at becoming the first Category 5 in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007. Once his eye clears out completely, he's set. Owen 00:26, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Joaquin
The latest ATCF update (AL, 11, 2015100100,, BEST, 0, 239N, 730W, 100, 951, HU) says we're at 10/3/2. Ok, now I'm going to go out on a limb and say that with the conditions Joaquin has and as long as he doesn't undergo an eyewall replacement cycle before then, he'll be able to reach Category 5 status. Owen 00:43, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wow, already. I guess the next advisory from the NHC should make it a major then. We seriously could be seeing our first Atlantic C5 since Felix... In an El Nino year! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:54, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Officially a major hurricane per NHC. Forecast peak raised to 120 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:01, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * I think cat 5 intensity is stretching it too far, but a 135-145 mph cat 4 from Joaquin is not impossible at all, I had the feeling this thing would explode in the record warm SST's it's in, and it did. It's got another day, maybe two, before it'll begin weakening from the trough. The forecast now takes Joaquin into North Carolina and southeastern Virginia as a 100 mph category 2 hurricane, but if it becomes a strong 4, it might hit Virginia as a 3. This is looking out to be a really ugly storm for the mid-Atlantic region. Ryan1000 04:10, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * There's a pinhole eye apperent on satellite right now. If it can sustain a pinhole eye, then it still could become a category 5. Why is it, though that all Atlantic category 5s seem to cause damage to stuff? There's a hurricane warning in pretty much all of the Bahamas now. However, the current track from the NHC has it miss the U.S coast, but they'll be releasing a new one soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:33, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast track points Joaquin directly at my neck of the woods (Massachusetts), so I wouldn't quite qualify that as "miss[ing] the U.S. coast." However, as much as I hate to say this, a TS/Cat 1 here probably wouldn't be as bad as a similar-strength storm in NYC, or a Cat 2/3 in Virginia. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:00, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * JOAQUIN IS ALREADY A CAT 4 :( STAY SAFE, AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN!
 * Hurricane-joanquin-memes-2.jpg  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 18:15, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's trying to clear out it's eye. And yes, looks like it is going to hit the coast. Hopefully though it instead veers out towards the sea, staying off shore as it goes near the coast instead. The fact that some of these models are predicting a turn into the coast is not looking good. And it's now a category 4. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:38, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * 115 kts/936 mbar. First sub-940 mbar storm in the Atlantic since Igor. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:49, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * @Ryan, I feel it is very possible Joaquin will become a Category 5 considering he is STILL in warm water and has not made his turn to the north, which could force it to move inland more in the Carolinas I would think. In addition, he is already at 130 mph now and still strengthening and has about 24 hours or so left to do what he wants to do, which is plenty of time. Heck, if it keeps going the way it is, warnings and watches may be required for Florida. Owen 19:45, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is very possible for Joaquin to reach cat. 5 even though winds have slightly weakened. I'm not going to be on the rest of the day, and probably tommorow. But, I'll be watching this closely.  leeboy100 Rita 2005-2015 21:03, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm not going to let my guard down, but models are (thankfully) starting to trend Joaquin out to sea. Still can't rule out some impacts in the US, lest earlier models turn out to be correct and Joaquin either takes a left-hand turn into the Mid-Atlantic, or heads north straight into New England. Besides, even if Joaquin does dodge the US, I'd say it already has a decent shot at retirement based on its impacts in the Bahamas. This was a nasty surprise for them. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:11, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * The NHC says winds are still 130, it didn't weaken. Unless you're looking somewhere else. Anyway, models are starting to turn the hurricane away from the coast, however the Bahamas are getting slammed, and the longer it refuses to turn north the worse it will be for them. Even if it doesn't become a category 5, this is going to be very damaging for them. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:08, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * I take back my previous post. My schedule has cleared up, and since I'm so astonished at Joaquin (considering the strength of Atlantic storms the past 3 or 4 years) I'll probably be posting a lot. Now, getting back on topic, this storm is amazing, if only it could just curve out to sea.  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:33, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm sorry, but wasn't this an El Nino year? It sure doesn't seem like one. Alright, when I said I'd be posting a lot, this isn't what I had in mind. I just noticed that I've already posted like 6 times, and that post above, wasn't even thirty minutes ago. I'll back off, I'm talking to much. But anyone in New England, beware. I'm going to go watch The Weather Channel now.  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:53, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

I know I haven't been on lately due to school, but Joaquin is looking massive, and just astonishing. It is currently pounding the Bahamas with who-knows-how-bad weather, and possibly a lot of devastation in the islands. Joaquin just awesomely powerful for its first use, but unfortunately, New England is in the threat zone. I would really appreciate it if Joaquin could just turn away from the east coast, as I don't want to see a lot of devastation in the area. The forecast track takes the center a little offshore, but they could still feel quite a lot of impacts nonetheless. The impact in the Bahamas could even be enough for at least a moderate shot of retirement, but since the Bahamas is not really that populated, it would take extreme devastation in the islands for the storm to be retired if it didn't reach the U.S. Well thankfully it is expected to not be too powerful when it arrives, so it probably won't be so bad of a storm after all for the east coast. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:51, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

New advisory just came out. Winds stay at 130 Mph. But the pressure has gone down to 931. And it's now headed WSW, it might already be making that turn. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 23:59, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * The pressure keeps falling but the winds haven't risen since they peaked at 130 earlier on, maybe Joaquin is falling victim to upwelling over its own wake, like Blanca did earlier this year in the EPac. The latest sattelite imagery reflects this somewhat, the eye is becoming a little ragged and it could go on a weakening trend from here on out. But even if Joaquin spares the east coast of the U.S. from a landfall (which is looking increasingly likely at this point), a cat 4 sitting over the southern Bahamas for 2-3 days can't have good results. The damage caused down there might be enough to retire Joaquin on its own merit. Ryan1000 01:51, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * 11 pm advisory (Eastern time) is out. Winds still remain the same, at 130 MPH  (113 Knots) but the pressure has gone back up to 935 millibars. And it is perhaps being affected by upwelling, Ryan. As the eye is now becoming less defined. Maybe our cat 5 will have to wait. Anyways, I'm going to bed, It's getting late and I have to get up early. I'll be busy until late tommorow afternoon, I'll be on then. (around 20:00 UTC)  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 03:03, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Oh, and I forgot to mention that the forecast path no longer has it making a direct landfall in the U.S. However it has done quite enough damage in the Bahamas..........  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 03:05, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * 8 AM advisory is out, it's still at 130 mph but the pressure rose even more to 937. It's slowly moving northwest over the Bahamas, but it'll turn northeast later today and tomorrow. It'll spare the east coast of the U.S. at this point for sure. The only areas that could be affected on Joaquin's way out to sea would be Bermuda or Atlantic Canada. Ryan1000 11:58, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * The nation's attention has moved onto the Oregon tragedy now, so yeah, Joaquin is an afterthought to most Americans at this point. Katrina, Sandy, and Haiyan are still the only storms this century that ordinary people will remember. See you in 2021! TekkenGuy12 (talk) 13:44, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be so sure about Joaquin coming back in 2021 just yet. The worst of Joaquin has been sitting over Long Island in the Bahamas for nearly 24 hours. They better have some superlative construction codes, or else I wouldn't be surprised if there's near-total devastation on that island. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:34, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * A cargo ship with 33 crew members has reportedly gone missing in the vicinity of Crooked Island. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:41, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * On a positive note, Joaquin has finally weakened a little bit. 2pm interim advisory raised the pressure to 942 mbar, and the 18z ATCF update lowered the winds to 110 kts. Hopefully this is the start of a trend. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:43, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah the latest advisory downs it to 125 mph, and it's expected to pass between the eastern U.S. and Bermuda, which is a best-case scenario for Joaquin going out to sea. And Tekkenguy, the Bahamas took a severe beating from this thing, a category 4 hurricane sitting over the islands for two days can't end with good results, even if the buildings there are well-designed. The damage in the Bahamas could easily be enough to retire it, even though the U.S. lucked out. Ryan1000 21:15, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * HSMC model track is meaning that it will hit Canada with winds of 45 mph/
 * (SpcardozoComesBack left this, but forgot to sign the post. But, don't worry Spcardozo, forgetting to sign posts happens to me all the time ;D)


 * I'm here, and Joaquin has now weakened to a category 3. The forecast now says it won't hit the U.S. but it is already causing destructive surge in Carolina. Stay safe everyone (P.S. just like last year, I'm making my signature pink in honor of breast cancer awareness month, sorry if I'm changing it too much. P.P.S. I have no idea who wrote the post above me and it is unsigned.)  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 23:34, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin is weakening, Category 5 is now out of the picture. I'm sorry, guys but our category 5 is going to have to wait. It also no longer has winds of 130 MPh, so that's different.  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin
 * It's down to Category 3 strength currently (125 mph and 944 mbars). The forecast now takes him up towards Bermuda instead of the U.S., which is a good thing for our country, but could be really bad news for Bermuda. This basin is cursed to not produce a C5, so that's why Joaquin couldn't get that strong. The Bahamas probably suffered through extreme destruction, since a C4 stalling over the islands is never a good thing. And Bermuda is in the threat zone now, like I said before. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:13, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't really call that a curse Steve, Category 5s are supposed to be rare in the first place. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:55, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I know that they are supposed to be rare, but the thing is that the Atlantic hasn't seen one since 2007. This is 8 years without a C5, and before 2007, there's been a Category 5 about once every couple to a few years, while 2003, 2004, and 2005 were back-to-back years with a Category 5. So to me, this really seems like a curse, that could just about to be broken if Joaquin is a C5 on the next advisory. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:29, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I guess category 5 is out of the question, but it's pressure has begun to fall again, and it could become a category 4 again while over open waters. However, Bermuda's looking like it'll be in the path of this storm. Hopefully Gonzalo made them prepare for the next hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:54, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yep, it's eye cleared out on satellite, and it's been upgraded to a category 4 again in the latest NHC advisory. It's pressure is down to 936 mb, and it might manage to reach a new peak intensity before conditions cause it to weaken. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:06, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * WHOA! Special advisory takes it up to 155 mph, almost a category 5! Unless it gets upgraded to 160 mph in the intermediate advisory though, Joquain will remain 2 mph away from breaking the period with no category 5's. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:26, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * 933 mbar as of the moment. WOW, IT'S ALMOST A CATEGORY 5! Raindrop is right, Joaquin may reach a new peak intensity because of this new development. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:30, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I really want to see a category 5 from this now. It's so close! It has an hour and a half before the intermediate advisory, if it can get more organised it will be a 5. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:34, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looks to be weakening on satellite. However, I think it was more organised about 30 minutes before the flight sent back that data, and could have been a category 5 at that time. 17:47, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

"Joaquin is weakening, category 5 is now out of the picture

Leeboy100 03:05, October 3, 2015 (UTC)"

O_O I take back what I said! I just woke up and Joaquin is at 155 MPH!!!! He's so close to becoming our first cat. 5 since Felix. This storm is incredible. Come on Joaquin, you can do it! leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 17:56, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

Inner winds of Joaquin have measured up to 166 mph! YAY!

<p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,0,0, 0.8);">H <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,151,0, 0.8);">u <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,250,0, 0.8);">rr <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(21,250,0, 0.8);">icane <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px #00faf4">1 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(0,55,250, 0.8);">6 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,0,250, 0.8);">2

18:43, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin could very well become a Category 5 tonight or even could've been one earlier. But, as of now, I have a feeling this was his final last punch. Bad news for Bermuda is that he will be stronger than expected when he passes by the island. Owen 19:01, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I still have some high hopes that Joaquin is a Category 5 on the next advisory. I'd really appreciate it if he can break the curse that's been ongoing for 8 years now. In a couple hours, we'll see what the next advisory says. Hopefully it becomes a Category 5, but drastically weakens before hitting Bermuda! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:29, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Come on Joaquin you can do it!  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 19:42, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * His eye reorganised after I said it looked like it was weakening, and it still could be a category 5 in the next advisory. Please be a category 5! (And don't do too much damage to Bermuda) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:51, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Bad news: New advisory says that it weakened to 150 mph/934 mbars :( <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 20:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * >:(  F**K!!!!!!!! Why can't the Atlantic have a category 5!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Well, I'm going to track Oho now.  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 20:36, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I know the feelings, bro. The Atlantic really doesn't want to produce a C5 again, I guess. This curse has been going on for 8 years now, and I don't know when it will ever end. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 20:40, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Let Joaquin fall short. I was alarmed when I saw the 12pm special advisory, and I'm very impressed by Joaquin's sudden re-intensification today (and, given the fact that it took aircraft data to upgrade Joaquin, I think there's a decent chance that post-analysis could find a 5), but I sure as hell am not going to root for a Category 5 when there's a threat to land. As long as Bermuda is in the line of fire (especially after the double trouble they got from Fay and Gonzalo last year), I want this thing to weaken. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:50, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Woah, I did not expect this explosion in intensification today, this thing just took off in what seemed to be an environment that would become increasingly unfavorable. Some of the bahamas were just battered by this thing, with at least 2 deaths as of now, and if Joaquin fails to weaken significantly or turn further north of east over the next day or two, it could be Bermuda's worst hurricane in almost 90 years, definitely far worse than Fabian. Ryan1000 21:40, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * @Dylan. I want Joaquin to become a cat 5 as long as he weakens before hitting Bermuda. I guess the Atlantic just wants to continue it's cat 5 curse though.  leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:52, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
As stated in the section for Ida, if this becomes a tropical cyclone, I would assume that it will not be Ida because the frontal trough associated with this has absorbed her remnants. Oh well, clean slate for Kate to form and be something worth tracking. Correct me if I'm wrong, though. Owen 19:09, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Up to 50%. Kate is coming. 50/80 to be exact (50% in 48 hours, 80% in the next 5 days.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:06, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * 60% now, looks like this will be Kate. Some models are predicting a hurricane out of this. Allanjeffs 17:51, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hopefully future Kate won't be a re-Joaquin, although it's possible considering the favorable conditions in this part of the basin. Owen 19:46, October 1, 2015 (UTC) INVEST 90L.... 7:15 PM EDT OCT 2 2015......75% TO BECOME KATE

CURRENT INFORMATION INVEST 90L WILL PROBALLY BECOME MAJOR HURRICANE KATE(125 MPH, 942 MBAR)


 * Looks like Kate could be coming out of this invest. 60/80, and looking pretty good. I forsee a hurricane from it. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:53, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * HSMC Advisory:
 * That what the advisory is for my center. 🌀 (talk) 23:20, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't think future Kate will end up being another major hurricane, because of wind shear that Hurricane Joaquin is causing. Maybe a formidable tropical storm or weak hurricane, as I would like to see the name Kate be used for a formidable storm. Hopefully we get down to Nicholas this year. Owen 01:49, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, to-be-Kate should peak at C1 to C2 strength at the very most. This system doesn't look bound to be so powerful, since conditions are not the most favorable. Anyway, the chances are at 60/60, currently. Upper-level winds associated with Joaquin should make it not get that strong anymore. In fact, if it develops, I wouldn't be surprised if it fails to become a hurricane at this point :P <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:16, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looks like it will be a bust instead lol. The convection got sheared away, and it's down to 40/40. Even if it did form, it would be a failure. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:07, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * It doesn't have much time anymore to become something. Downgraded to 30/30, and if anything, this shouldn't develop. The upper-level winds associated with Joaquin will really rip the poor system apart. Looks like it truly will be a bust. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 1 - present)
I thought this was a better title, putting the date of my first post at the beginning, and when the wave dissipates, the "present" will be replaced by the date it dissipated. Anyway, this wave has quite a bit of convection, and is in the Cape Verde area extending from 12N26W to 17N25W. It probably emerged off of Africa a couple days ago. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:02, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * This will probably end up being Larry, as long as 90L becomes Kate. Owen 01:50, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Near Cape Verde
Could be something in the long run, but upper-level winds are hostile currently. Has popped up at 0/20 on the TWO. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:18, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 3 - present)
A brand new tropical wave is behind the 0/20 one, extending from 07N23W to 17N26W. This one seems to have some scattered convection. It is expected to merge with the other tropical wave by tomorrow night, and this may fuel the other wave. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 20:08, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
While the Atlantic continues to be boring and inactive, we're already deep into the season. This means it's about time to do retirements. Some people like Dylan might complain about starting this section early, but I'm just a bit impatient and want to start this section today. So, without further ado...
 * Nah, we're late enough into the season that I'm okay with starting retirement predictions now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:55, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * I began these predictions on August 9th (my time, not UTC) though, so that's why I was worried it might have been a bit too early and you would complain. Now, it's certainly a ripe time for these predictions. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:35, August 20, 2015 (UTC)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))


 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - It was the earliest U.S. strike on record, but the damages and deaths won't earn it retirement.


 * Bill: <font color="#77B">2.5% - 7 deaths were caused throughout its path, but damage was minimal. See you in 2021!


 * Claudette: 0% - I consider it an epic fail. The only impacts were rainfall in North Carolina (pre-development) and in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland.


 * Danny: <font color="#AAC">1% - Danny was a tiny major hurricane in a somewhat southerly location, but impacts to the Lessers are just minor at best. He'll come back in 2021.


 * Erika: 65% - Just look at what it did to Dominica. We might have an Allison 2.0 here.


 * Fred: <font color="#AAC">1% - It wasn't that bad for the Cape Verdes at all, but it was a really record breaking storm as it was the easternmost hurricane in the tropical Atlantic not counting the area where Vince formed, and it also became the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verdes since 1892. Because it wasn't that impacting, the name will almost certainly stay for 2021.


 * Grace: 0% - What a disgrace. Forgive the pun; couldn't resist.


 * Henri: 0% - No way. It failed so much, that it is very laughable.


 * Ida: 0% - Fought, but failed.


 * Joaquin: ? - Predictions will be released when it dissipates.

Anyone else want to do theirs now? You can use my color idea if you like. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:17, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

My retirements: +<font color="#666666">0.5%
 * Ana:  0%  — Nah, a tropical storm


 * Bill y :  15%  — A severe tropical storm on a scale, well nah.

🌀 (talk) 00:01, September 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * Claudette: <font color="#666666">0.5%  — Who would retire this?
 * Danny - 0%
 * Erika - <font color="#70A">99% - OH OH OH OH OH! ERIKA YOUR GROUNDED GROUNDED GROUNDED FOR LIFE!


 * (Retirement colors:  NaN% , <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% ,  10% ,  15% ,  20% , <font color="#4A0">25% ,  30% , <font color="#CF0">35% ,  40% , <font color="#FD0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#F80">55% ,  60% ,  65% , <font color="#B00">70% ,  75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))(thanks steve)


 * :D :D odile is back!

•An n a and Elsa :  NaN%  - meh...

•Bill Clinton : <font color="#AAC">1%  - meh...

•Claudette:  NaN%  - u wot m8?

•Danny:  NaN%  - yes. just  NO .

•Erika:  65%   - destructive weakling? dang

•Fred:  NaN%  - LOL

•Grace:  NaN%  - no comment.

•Henri:  NaN%  - Henri's bae is Felicia

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:32, August 16, 2015 (UTC)

Puffle is here with more lame science stuff Retirements at a glance!!1

Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - Surprised me to see a pre-season storm, especially with an El Niño. But no, I don't wanna build a snowman.

Bill Nye : <font color="#Acc">2.7% -Sorry Billy, you're still not ready

Claudette: <font color="#AAC">0.1%  - Affected very little land, and was the worst storm ever.

Danny Phantom : <font color="#AAC">>1%  Okay Danny, I like you, but no. Just no.

Erika: <font color="#B0D">95%  - Can you find "Dominica" on the map? No? Erika did that.

Fred: <font color="#AAC">>1%  - Other than striking the Cape-Verde area, what did Fred do?

Grace: <font color="Silver">Fail%  - Clearly Grace was not amazing. What a disgrace of a storm. Have I had enough pun with puns yet?

Henri: <font color="Silver">Fail%  - And I thought Grace and Claudette sucked...Now Felicia has a boyfriend :P

<font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  00:38, August 30, 2015 (UTC)

Other than Erika, nothing is worth retiring as of now. Storm by storm, here's my calls... That's all for now. Ryan1000 11:39, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana - 2% - Minor damage and an indirect death. It was not nothing, but not enough to retire it either.
 * Bill - 17% - 100 million in damage isn't half bad, but the U.S, let alone Texas, have seen far worse than that and it's probably not getting retired.
 * Claudette - 0% - Gave me something to look at for a day. That's all.
 * Danny - 0% - It was really cool to see how this managed to pull off a major hurricane in the open Atlantic despite otherwise unfavorable conditions, but like Don '11, it fell flat on it's face as soon as it hit land. The Lessers suffered next to nothing from this, other than some (beneficial) rain.
 * Erika - 95% - Actually, scratch what I said before, Erika is now officially the costliest storm in Dominica's history with 374 million dollars in damage on the island, surpassing Marilyn of 1995, and the 3rd deadliest, after David and the 1834 hurricane. So yeah...Allison is getting company next spring.
 * Fred - 10% - Cape Verde got off much easier with this one than they otherwise could've.
 * Grace - 0% - This storm was just downright...Dis-Grace-ful (end sarcasm).
 * Henri - -1% - It didn't just out-fail Claudette and Grace, it out-failed Failicia, and that's saying something.
 * Ida - 0% - Another fish, another fail.
 * Joaquin - ?? - The U.S. may have lucked out, but the Bahamas didn't. If the damage there was extreme, this will probably be retired.

My turn :D leeboy100 My Talk! 09:14, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 1%- minimal damage, 1 indirect death, this won't be enough for retirement.
 * Bill: 5%- Caused flooding and 7 deaths, but it's not likely it will be retired
 * Claudette: -0% At least we got some Atlantic activity.
 * Danny: -0% An impressive storm, I wasn't <span id="cke_bm_65S" style="display:none;">       <span id="cke_bm_67S" style="display:none;">  even expecting it to become a hurricane, let alone a category 3! It didn't hit land though,
 * Erika: 75% I know, I'm being lenient with this storm, for two reasons. One: I don't know Dominica's track record for retirement, and two: and this is the big one. There is around a 50/50 chance Erika won't be retired because of the fact that it never reached hurricane strength. Despite me bringing these up, I personally think Erika should be retired, but I won't be too surprised if it's snubbed.
 * Fred: 5% It shocked pretty much everyone with it hitting Cape Verde, but retirement is not likely.
 * Grace: 0% What a disgraceful storm that took a fall from grace and became a storm that was not so amazing. This was the coup-de-grace of fails. Too much puns?
 * Henri: 0% Not in a million years........
 * Ida: 0%- Meh.
 * Joaquin: Currently active. Already caused 2 deaths and is headed towards Bermuda. It is also very close to Category 5 status..............

P.S. If Joaquin and Erika are retired, this will be the first Atlantic season to have two retired names since 2010. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:37, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

Leeboy, Gordon '94 caused most of its deaths in the less-prepared country of Haiti, who also snubbed Hanna '08. Dominica hasn't seen a storm as bad as Erika since, reportedly, David in 1979, which killed 56 people on the island. Ryan1000 16:08, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * I know Ryan. What I was saying was that there is a possibility that either a) retirement won't be requested or b) the WMO will snub it. Although, I think it deserves retirement, and will be mad (but not surprised) if it isn't.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 21:22, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan, that $16 million figure wasn't from Dominica. It was from Puerto Rico and it's mostly crop damage. According to the Prime Minister, damage in Dominica could be "tens of millions" and that the damage will set the island's development back 20 years.

While I'm at it, might as well give mine: Those are mine! 23:08, August 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1%  (It caught the US off-guard, but that, essentially, was it. Minor damage and one indirect death don't get a storm retired.
 * Bill: <font color="#359">5%  (Brought a higher death toll, but outside of teaching everyone about the brown ocean, nothing going. Still minor damage.)
 * Claudette:  0%  (Big ball of nothing.)
 * Danny:  0%  (It scared peop'le, but merely scaring people isn't enough most of the time (see: Sonamu). Danny did nothing else.)
 * Erika: <font color="#F0F">90%  (Nearly every storm that hit Dominica went on to do worse elsewhere, so this is entirely on them to ask for retirement, but likely 50 dead, tens of millions in damage, and the country set back 20 years? If those figures hold up, Allison may be getting company. Not higher because, as I said, I'm not sure about Dominica's retirement standards. EDIT: From tens of millions to $244 million? Even leaving margin of error (it being a tropical storm, Dominica's uncertain retirement standards, the stats being off), I can't bring myself to justify less than 90% now.)

(PS: This was mine. Forgot how many is a signature. <_< Jake52 (talk) 00:07, August 30, 2015 (UTC))


 * I see, my bad on that. If Erika was bad enough to set the island back 20 years on development, it's probably getting retired. Though I'm not sure what a good analogy would be for her; Klaus flooded Martinique alone, Tomas hit St. Lucia and eventually Haiti, I don't think there's been any storm before that hit Dominica hard and didn't do much afterwards. The last time a storm was this bad for Dominica was David in '79, which also ripped apart the Dominican Republic and hit the east coast as a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:33, August 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Someone edited the Wikipedia article to say Erika caused $100 million total, but a recent report says Dominica estimates that preliminary damage to basic infrastructure on the island may be as high as $226 million. Words fail me. Jake52 (talk) 06:21, September 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't recall, but Bill did cause 100 million in damage. Not negligible, but not enough by U.S. standards. If that 272 million damage total for Dominica is correct, I could definitely see Erika joining Allison as only the second TS to ever be retired in the Atlantic. I don't think any storm has hit Dominica this bad and not caused many impacts elsewhere. It's at least the worst since David. Ryan1000 20:19, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

Here's mine: I'll update this as each of the remaining storms form. Owen 16:50, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 1% - She was the earliest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States, but her impacts don't merit her removal off of the list.
 * Bill: 3% - Eh, $100 million in damages isn't huge in United States standards, he'll be back in 2021.
 * Claudette: 0% - Absolutely not.
 * Danny: 1% - He managed to impress and reach C3 status before getting shredded by wind shear before causing significant effects on the Lesser Antilles.
 * Erika: 70% - I'm being slightly reluctant with her, considering there is uncertainty behind Dominica's retirement standards. However, considering she caused at least $244 million in damages on that nation alone really convinces that Allison is more likely than not to get company next spring.
 * Fred: 10% - It could've been much worse in Cabo Verde. It's safe to say he'll be returning in 2021.
 * Grace: 0% - Was this a joke?
 * Henri: 0% - Henri, you take the award for the Atlantic's biggest failure of 2015.
 * Ida: 0% - She had her opportunity, but failed.
 * Joaquin: TBA - Athough I have a bad feeling about this one, he is still active after all and anything could change from now until it affects the United States.

Time for me to post mine:


 * Ana: 3% - A pre-season shock for the East Coast, but impacts were minor.
 * Bill: 13% - Not negligible, but not bad enough for retirement.
 * Claudette: 0% - Lol, no.
 * Danny: 1% - A fun-to-watch throwback to the days when the MDR actually was the Atlantic's main development region (at least intensity-wise), but Danny sh-t the bed just as it hit the Lessers, and it's coming back in 2021.
 * Erika: 55% - Historic impacts in Dominica, which have already been elaborated on by Ryan and Jake. The only reason I am giving Erika such a conservative percentage is pure cynicism; considering that TS retirements are as rare as they are (with disastrous storms such as Bret '93 and Matthew '10 getting snubbed), I cannot bring myself to expect one. While retirement damn well should happen here, I'm not certain that it actually will happen.
 * Fred: 14% - Cape Verde may have lucked out, but 7 people did die when Fred sank a fishing boat offshore Guinea-Bissau.
 * Grace: 0% - Lawl.
 * Henri: -14% - LOOOOOOL
 * Ida: 0% - From potential to disappointment.
 * Joaquin: Still active. Confidence is increasing that this will spare the East Coast from direct impacts, but I have a bad feeling that this will go down as one of the worst hurricanes in history for some of the islands in the Bahamas...

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:47, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Raindrop's Retirements - Many of these I didn't really track, so those are based on what everyone else said. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:50, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: <1% - Minimal damage and one death has never gotten a storm retired, so it never will. No matter how early it hits.
 * Bill: 2% - Although it caused some damage, it's nothing worse then a normal tropical storm making landfall in the U.S.
 * Claudette: 0% - The only thing I can say that's interesting about Claudette is how far north it was. Fail.
 * Danny: <1% - It made landfall as a tropical depression and became a major hurricane, which is cool, but it didn't cause much damage, so no way it's getting retired.
 * Erika: 50% - I'm being very lenient on this one because Issac in 2012 was not retired despite doing over 30 deaths and over $2B in damages, and this did about 1/10 of that. However, the deaths weren't in Haiti this time which snubs storms, which gives it a moderate shot at retirement.
 * Fred: 3% - Fred didn't manage to do much to the Cape Verde Islands thankfully, so despite it's mark in history because of where it formed, it's staying.
 * Grace: 0% - On satellite, Grace looked anything but graceful. And it didn't hit anything. Un-grace-ful fail.
 * Henri: 0% - It DID form kind of far north like Claudette, but an epic fail nonetheless.
 * Ida: 0% - Spun fish, however it's remnant could regenerate and be named Ida still.
 * Joaquin: >0% - Currently active, and will be damaging. It's now the strongest storm of the year.

Ana: 1% Early storm but nothing more.

Bill: 1% Affect land and caused some damage but staying.

Claudette: 0% She didn´t affect land so staying

Danny:0% Our only major until now but didn´t affect lan so...

Erika: 70% Being conservative because Dominica could very well not ask for retirement,don´t know their track record, and it supposedly set back the economy for 20 years. I would also put a 70% to her because tropical storm are rarely ask to be tossed out of list. So we will see. Going to put a my final number once the NHC do her report.

Fred 1% some damage nothing more.

Grace:0% Fail.

Henri: 0% If I thought Grace was bad this was much worse.

Ida: 0% Frustrating storm to track but didn´t affect land soo I see you in 2021.

Joaquin???' mhm we will see.

Allanjeffs 23:14, September 30, 2015 (UTC)

Post-season changes
You know it's bad when the latest storm's TCR is out, and we're not even halfway with the season.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:23, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah...with Claudette's TCR just released we may have to open the TCR section of the betting pools early again this year. We'll wait until later though. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is proof the Atlantic is once again sucking this year. That is, unless the NHC is beginning the TCR's earlier than usual each season no matter how active it is. That could be a possibility also, but for now, it's likely it is starting early because of the season being inactive. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:37, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana could be upgraded to a Cat 1 because of this vid:Tropical Storm Ana 01L (2015)canes are awesome (talk) 20:16, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

saying by this. An n a and Elsa was possibly a hurricane.<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:23, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * This may not be true, because Ana's windspeeds may not have been hurricane-force (over 74 mph), because just having an eye doesn't mean you have a hurricane. --<font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">Party? OH HELL YES!!!  19:30, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Bill's TCR is out. Degenerated into a remnant low a full two days before the WPC operationally declared it post-tropical. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:34, September 10, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Danny should be downgraded to a Cat. 2 upgraded to 120 mph. 🌀 (talk) 23:20, October 2, 2015 (UTC)

Replacement names
Since Erika has a chance of retirement now, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Erika? Here are some of my suggestions: If I had to pick one of these, I would pick Ellie (my sister's name). Evelyn, Ella, or Elsa would be my next choices. Ryan1000 03:53, August 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Elizabeth
 * Eve
 * Ella
 * Ellen
 * Evelyn
 * Ebony
 * Eleanor/Ellie
 * Elisha
 * Elma
 * Elsa

Elsa and Ana on the same list would be hilarious XD. I choose Elsa. leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 15:54, August 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * If Elsa is its replacement, might as well call this list the "Frozen" list. XD --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:56, September 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * I just realized 'Olaf' is being used in the Pacific this year. It really is the Frozen list :D  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 01:45, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf and Elsa would be better for Winter storms. Anyways, Eve would probably be the replacement name for Erika. I don't wanna see Erika on naming lists anymore. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  13:44, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * My first choice is Elisabeth (spelled with an 's', as I have an old friend whose name is spelled that way). If that's too long, then I pick Eve as a second choice. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:18, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * I have to agree with Puffle. 🌀 are awesome🌀 21:09, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * I also agree with Puffle and Dylan's choices, but for the sake of Frozen, I'd much prefer Elsa being the replacement :P <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:32, September 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Erika its almost a gonner imo. it setback Dominicas progress by 20 years. If it have been Haiti the one affect I would put it at tossup because they don,t ask for retirement examples Hanna 2008 and Gordon were snub by them.Allanjeffs 02:28, September 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Shush Allanjeffs. Eve is a great name. 🌀 (talk) 01:07, September 24, 2015 (UTC)