Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season/October

AOI: Middle of Nowhere
Part of a twin set of AOIs in the CPac, along with the one south of Hawaii. It's currently 10% like the other AOI, but this one is located out to the west, closer to the International Date Line, and in the middle of nowhere (hence the title lol). Both this and the other AOI shouldn't become much, IMO.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:22, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * They're both 30% now, and the CPHC is saying conditions could become more favorable for both in a couple days. We could get another CPAC storm out of one of these, maybe even two! :O ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:51, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 60% and the other one is 70%. We might soon have two more named CPAC storms! If we do, we'll be at Pali. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:41, October 2, 2015 (UTC

98C.INVEST
invest'd... here it comes Pali or Oho!  the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:34, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * 70%, and the other one is 80%!! O.O God, this CPac season is the equivalent of 2005 in the Atlantic, and it makes sense because this season is also much over the record and it's exactly a decade later. Could we GET 2 STORMS AT ONCE?! I can't believe my eyes!  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now 90%, and the other one is 100%! We're guarenteed one storm now, and almost certainly 2! This is insane! I hope one of these becomes a category 4 (and doesn't do damage)! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 06:30, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * 100%, and the other one's already a tropical depression. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:46, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-C
And both of those invests have now developed. This one's not expected to become named, but I expect it to become named anyway, as that happens a lot. Even a weak tropical storm would supplement this ridiculous amount of CPAC named storms. I'll predict 45mph and 999mb. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:17, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * So Pali may come from this tropical depression? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:49, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yep. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I do expect to see Pali out of this TD, but it would only be a weakling if it does so. The forecast doesn't even make it named.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:41, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's pressure actually increased with the new advisory, however the new forecast has it become a TS in 4 days now. Unfortunately though, it would get a WPAC name instead of a CPAC name, so I hope it can strengthen before then. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:40, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I hope so, too. It would be fantabulous if the CPac can manage 9, or even 10 named storms in a given year. Such epic activity.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:27, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * The new forecast weakens it and expects it to become post-tropical. Looks like this was a fail TD. Edit: It managed to regain deep convection, so it could still have a shot. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:48, October 4, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-C
And it's no longer tropical. Lol. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:03, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * Totally unexpected, IMO. I was expecting this to possibly become named. Oh well.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:37, October 6, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Southeast of 97C
Just some random epic fail that won't develop, ever. Near 0%.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's now 10%, but there's only so many tropical systems you can have in one area, and they'll probably stop it from developing. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 06:38, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Up to 20%, and I actually think it might have a slight shot at this point. Imagine if the depression became named, and this also became a named storm eventually, and we would be up to 10 named storms! In a basin which usually barely gets any storms at all during a given year!  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:43, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 40%, and this could develop into ANOTHER storm. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:49, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * 10%. Never mind. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:11, October 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO! Oho probably ate it, lol  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:35, October 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm assuming so. There aren't even clouds in the area where it was now. Oh well, we've already doubled the CPAC storm record. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:53, October 7, 2015 (UTC)

99C.INVEST
99 red ballons... (invests) -- the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:29, October 4, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: South of Baja
Another epic fail that won't develop, ever. 10/10 on the latest TWO, and upper level winds will destroy it and crush it to pieces.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:35, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Actually, it already did. It's the remnants of Marty. Anyway it won't regenerate. Ever. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 06:33, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I didn't really know that since I barely tracked Marty at all. It's up to 20%, but it still won't regenerate. Ever.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:45, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It says it's Marty's remnants in it's description on the TWO. It would be neat if it managed to regenerate, although the chance is so low. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:51, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it's not going to redevelop. Ever. Though I do agree that it would be neat if it did do that, but I just really doubt it. Maybe, once it drops off the TWO, we can say "Goodbye for good, Marty!"  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:34, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * And it's down to 10%, Marty won't be returning. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:54, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yep, and it's off the TWO. It didn't return.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:34, October 6, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Middle of Nowhere
Out in the middle of the ocean, away from any landmass, there lies this new 10/40 AOI. Possible development is expected over the long run, and it surely does have Nora potential. The TWO also claims it's associated with a tropical wave, yet the "wave" doesn't even appear in the Tropical Weather Discussion.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:34, October 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 20/60 now. I really hope it's not a 90% bust this time. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:52, October 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * 40/70. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:38, October 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * I do hope it develops. I don't want a huge bust like the other invest was. Surely it does have some Nora potential.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:33, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Up to 60/80! I'd be shocked if it busted, as conditions are forecast to be conductive over the next few days or so. Here comes Nora! Also, it's finally being mentioned as a tropical wave in the TWD. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:36, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Up to 90/90! It could be upgraded to a TD in the next 3 hours. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:32, October 9, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E
It's here, and already forecast to peak as an 85-kt Category 2. Fingers crossed this thing gives us the record-breaking 8th Category 4... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:08, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * If it can become a cat 3 at least, we'd have 9 cat 3's. With 96E looking to be in favorable conditions in the long run, we might tie 1992's all-time record of 10 majors after all. Ryan1000 20:37, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * New advisory came out, it is still a tropical depression. Hopefully next advisory it will strengthen. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:49, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's convection's more organized now, should be a TS in the next advisory. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:48, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * It came quicker than I expected, but hello new TD! I see it becoming Nora by the time I wake up tomorrow morning. And then, it's pretty possible we may see a large major hurricane in the long term. This TD is one to watch for a potential powerful and epic hurricane. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 02:06, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * The forecast turns it back towards the EPAC basin in 4-5 days, when it has entered the CPAC. Maybe it will do what Oho got so close to achieving and cross from the CPAC to the EPAC basin while tropical! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:27, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nora
Well, Nora is here! Official forecast has it peaking as a strong C1 now. Unless Nora rapidly intensifies, we won't get a C4 out of her. Owen 03:47, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * You made your text a heading again. Fixed it for you. It could become a strong storm still, we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 05:24, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't really think we'll see Nora turn into a Category 4 anymore, but at most, I would say Cat. 3 strength is possible. There's nothing really stopping this thing over the next few days. The NHC's initial forecast sometimes underrates a storm by saying it won't become a major, but then the storm intensifies into one. That could happen with Nora. Um, since C4 is quite the stretch, I would be surprised if it got that far but it still doesn't seem too out of the question. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:47, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * It doesn't have the best convective structure, and the forecast peak intensity is decreasing... At this rate it might not even be a hurricane. I hope it at least becomes a category 1 though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:00, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * looks like Nora Is Bae couls stall near 140W at the end of the forecast period.--<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:10, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Um, actually Odile, she's expected to hug the 145W boundary instead while it begins to weaken from a hurricane near the end of the forecast. It's pretty much a bit frustrating to see the forecasted peak go down from (formerly C2 strength), and now it's going to only be a C1. -.- Still rooting for at least a C2 though! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:40, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * LOL, Ryan, I noticed that Owen made his post a heading last night before I went to bed, but I don't know how to fix it, and I thought I'd let our great administrator (you) handle it ;)
 * Anyway's, it's official, Nora is here! Also, I was watching The Weather Channel yesterday, and when it was still a depression, it said that the forecast track took it into the Central Pacific and then back into the East Pacific. I don't know if it is still predicted to take that track, but has that ever happened before? I mean, I know that John of 1994 crossed into the WPac and back into the CPac, but has a storm done that at 140W before? leeboy100 My Talk! 17:23, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Still absolutely horrible on satellite. It's got to get it's act together or it's going to be a 45 knot fail storm. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:23, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Sorry about the edit conflict, Raindrop. Anyway's, it is possible for Nora to take that track and it's still predicted to, Meanwhile, I'm still curious as to whether a storm has crossed 140W twice before.
 * leeboy100 My Talk! 17:26, October 10, 2015 (UTC) (If I had a nickel for every time I forgot to sign my posts..)
 * I've read somewhere that a storm crossing 140W twice hasn't happened since 1970. This storm could really make history if it does do that, and it'll also be the first storm I've ever seen that crossed 140W twice. Nora is now at 50 mph/1002 mbars and I don't know if it'll even BE a hurricane anymore at this point. Satellite presentation looks quite horrible and if she wants to become a hurricane, she better get her act together soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 21:57, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I didn't have any edit conflict problems, leeboy. I think only whoever starts editing second gets an edit conflict message. Anyway, Nora's winds somehow increased despite the wind field being very small and the horrible satellite presentation. I've now given up hope of a major hurricane and I'm simply hoping for it to cross 140 degrees W twice, a feat I think not yet achieved by a tropical cyclone. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:32, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Nora's now in the CPAC basin. I hadn't tracked any basin crossing storms this year, so when it said "last NHC advisory issued on NORA" I thought it had randomly become post-tropical. It's winds are increasing despite the tropical storm force winds being on only one side of the center, and it's now 60 mph. It's improving on satellite, and at this rate it will still be a weak hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:25, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * It does that when the center for responsibility of the TC is handed over from the NHC to CPHC. And it's now 65 mph, at this rate a hurricane could come by tonight. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:45, October 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Nora got to 70 mph a while ago, but didn't become a hurricane as the center of circulation then got displaced. It's 45 mph now with a pressure of 1002 mb. It's forecast to last another couple days as a TS before it dissipates. So much for that category 2 they were predicting. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:26, October 13, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nora
its down and out --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  is Joaquin still there?  •  spam goes here ^_^  14:57, October 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's bursts of deep convection somehow managed to cause the system to disrupt itself. :/ It's down to 30 mph, and should dissipate soon. It was fun to have something in the EPAC/CPAC to keep it interesting while waiting for that other invest to develop (which is now 70/90). ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:19, October 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * It sucks that we didn't see a hurricane out of her. :/ She's down and out now, and it was good to watch. Now all eyes are on the invest about to become the snowman storm (aka Olaf). <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:18, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left:24px;">

Remnants of Nora
...aaaaaand cut. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:01, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

Bye-bye Nora! leeboy100 My Talk! 02:03, October 16, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Southeastern Mexico
On the TWO at 0/20, and it could become something in the long run. Could be Olaf, as the above system is very likely to become a named storm soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:38, October 9, 2015 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
10/50 now, it's looking pretty good. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:28, October 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It got invest'd when you said that. Assuming we get Nora out of 18-E, this'll be Olaf in the long run. Ryan1000 20:40, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * 30/60. This one's got a lot of convection but lacks a circulation of any sort. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:53, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * A tropical wave in the area is being mentioned by the TWD. Anyway, I see it becoming Olaf by early next week or so. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 02:08, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Um, still 30/60, we should see Olaf coming from this though. My bet is a formation by early next week. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:43, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana and Olaf in the same year again? If Erika is replaced with Elsa in the spring, this will be Frozen fans' favorite naming lists. Anyway, staying on topic, Olaf should form out of this and I can see us stopping at Rick again this year like 2009 as long as the activity stays constant through October. November isn't really common for development in the EPac. Owen 16:37, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

looks that the snowman is going to be a monster! --<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:17, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * :O Whoa, that looks like a major hurricane! Hope that becomes true and we see a C4 from Olaf! (Then maybe it's remnant low will reach Alaska and give them snow to build a snowman) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:20, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * This could be a huge monster hurricane if Odile's links pan out. It'd also be a coincidence if future Olaf brought snow to Alaska, and they could build a snowman (lol). And even without Elsa, these lists could still be Frozen fans' favorite naming lists, because they are the only lists which contain the names of Frozen characters. Having Elsa replacing Erika would be the best thing the NHC would ever do, and I surely hope it happens for an even more Frozen-filled year in 2021. Ana and Elsa in the Atlantic, and Olaf in the Pacific, this naming list would be the absolute favorite among all fans of Frozen. Lastly that movie was released almost 2 years ago, so I can't believe it's still this popular; it must be as popular as Ice Age, Finding Nemo, and other stuff from my childhood. Getting back on topic, this invest is lookin' hella good, and is 20/60 on the latest TWO. I'd love it if it can become a huge monster hurricane eventually. :D <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:11, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure why they decreased the precentage despite it looking good on satellite. I'm also not sure why they haven't increased the 5-day chance to a high risk yet, as it won't be encountering unfavorable conditions. Let the snowman storm exist! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:36, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * The percentage for 48 hours is down to 10%, but it looks like the 5 day outlook has increased (70%). Let's just give it some time to develop, we'll see it become the snowman storm eventually. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:43, October 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * 0/70. At one point it was 10/80, but it went back down. Looks like we'll have to wait a few more days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:15, October 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * 10/80 again. I expect to see a tropical depression from this in 3-4 days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:27, October 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * 50/90, but where'd everyone go? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:52, October 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * 70/90. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:58, October 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * 90/90! Here comes Olaf the snowman, he should come by tonight! :D `<font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:11, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E
Here. Forecast to become a cat 2 for now. Ryan1000 11:33, October 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * I had a dream last night that this went down to 10/20 o_o --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:24, October 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Three advisories and it's still a TD. Hoping for RI to category 4 at some point. And I'm glad your dream wasn't real. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:05, October 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dylan, I'm glad it didn't come true, otherwise it would have been an unexpectedly huge bust. I think that I've dreamt something like that before but it only happens very rarely. Back to the storm, it is still a TD, and could be a hurricane at the end of the forecast. Hoping it gets as strong as a C4, like Raindrop said. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:39, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * Here comes Olaf (or as I'm going to call it the "Frozen blizzard hurricane of doom", okay maybe not.) It's forecast to be a category 2, and could get higher than that. I hope it does no destruction so 'Olaf' can stay on the list longer. leeboy100 My Talk! 02:08, October 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * This depression has weakened to 25 kts/1007 mbar. I'm starting to become skeptical about that forecast for a hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:54, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * yeah weird that it has weaken,reminds me of Carlos on 2008 when it was expected to strength and instead maintain intensity. Anyways I expect an upper cat 1 or low cat 2. Nothing more. Allanjeffs 04:00, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * Maybe that dream wasn't too far off. In 100% favorable conditions, it weakened. How is that even possible? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:39, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * It finally might be getting it's act together. It's back to 35 mph, and the new advisory is in 1 hour. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:44, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olaf
And it finally managed to become Olaf after somehow weakening in favorable conditions. Forecast to rapidly intensify, and I hope, and kind of even expect, a category 4 from Olaf. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:58, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) A major still isn't in the forecast from Olaf. A cat 2 is definitely possible, but a 3 or more isn't very likely because conditions will become unfavorable as Olaf eventually turns north in the CPac. Ryan1000 03:02, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Sorry about the edit conflict Ryan. Anyway, the NHC is saying they won't be surprised if it gets stronger then forecast, which is 110 mph, so I think 3 is very possible. 4 might be stretching it though. Also I think Olaf is continuing to organize. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 05:04, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's about time the snowman showed up.................. leeboy100 My Talk! 05:19, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * 50 mph, and forecast to become a major! As long as it keeps RI'ing, then it has a shot at C4 intensity, as the NHC continues to hint at the fact that it may intensify more. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:58, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's about time! It took so long to become named, possibly because of disorganization. With the snowman storm finally showing up, it could become something huge according to the forecast. I won't be shocked to see a near-C5 from him. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:06, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * When I think of the name Olaf, I don't think of the snowman, I think of the Count. Just saying. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:47, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well, it did come first, I just hadn't heard much about it, so I think of Frozen. Anyway, tropical storm Olaf seems to be organizing, and if convection continues wrapping around the center like it is currently it'll be a hurricane soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:16, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the satellite images on the WunderMap, it looks like the convection is wrapping around the center and forming an eye. It could become a hurricane soon if it wraps fully around. RI, anyone? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:20, October 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * Olaf looks a lot better than I thought it would've at this time, it has a fairly good shot at being a major now, and even a minimal cat 4 is not out of the question. If it becomes a 4, we'll have 8 cat 4's, an all-time record, and 9 majors. If 97E south of Mexico intensifies quickly into a major in the long run, we would have 10, which would tie 1992 for the highest ever. If 97E becomes Patricia period, we would be tied with 1985 for the second-most active Pacific season on record, after 1992. Although a nice chunk of the activity this year came from the record-breaking CPac, which had 8 named storms, twice the previous record of 4 set in 1982 (which 2015 is currently tied with for the 3rd most active EPac season ever). Ryan1000 01:37, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * The new advisory brings Olaf up to 65 mph, and the cloud tops have cooled a lot since 6 hours ago. Olaf is organizing at an amazing rate now, and I can definitely see a category 4 from Olaf. It's the "snowman with his head knocked off effect" - once the storm gets going it can't be stopped. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:54, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf now appears to have an eye on satellite which is now fully surrounded by deep convection. It's still irregular, but by the next advisory it might be a hurricane. Wow this storm suddenly has organized in the last few hours! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:24, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * By the way, here's a couple pics from Wunderground showing it's organization in eight hours. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 05:39, October 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * TS_Olaf_-_1.png
 * TS_Olaf_-_2.png

Hurricane Olaf
For a hurricane that shares its name with a snowman, Olaf really loves the equatorial region:

"At 9.4N, Olaf is the lowest-latitude hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific dataset. Reliable records in the basin go back to about 1971."

Impressive going, Olaf. Jake52 (talk) 10:50, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Not half bad, all things considered. Still expected to be a major, but the peak intensity is still expected to be just below cat 4. Ryan1000 12:16, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * The peak intensity's gone up however. And I find that very amusing that the snowman storm became a hurricane at a record low latitude. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:25, October 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * Category 2 per ATCF. EP, 19, 2015101900,, BEST, 0, 96N, 1350W, 85, 978, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 10, 1008, 300, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:11, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now confirmed by NHC, but they still refuse to raise the peak of Olaf to cat 4. Hopefully it reaches that, it'd be cool to see this year break yet another record. Ryan1000 04:47, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Uh, last time I checked snowmen didn't usually like low-latitude areas. If Olaf bombs out in intensity I'm going to start calling him the "Abombinable Snowman". Sorry, I couldn't resist the pun :P  leeboy100 My Talk! 05:24, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * 12z ATCF bumps Olaf to a high-end Cat 2 (95 kts/970 mbar), and a small eye recently became apparent on visible satellite imagery. With a little luck, we could have a major with the next advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:00, October 19, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Olaf
...and a little luck happened! Latest advisory brings Olaf to 100 kts/967 mbar, and it's finally forecast to reach Category 4 strength (125 kts, to be precise). Fingers crossed! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:49, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf's got a nice eye now, I'm not surprised. Olaf is now the southernmost forming major hurricane in the EPAC basin, reaching major hurricane status at 9.9 degrees north. The guidance also is keeping it more westward then north as time passes. The snowman storm is trying to stay as far from snow as possible. Not bad, Olaf! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:05, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think it has a very nice structure for a near-equatorial storm. Ep201519_sat.jpg

<p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,0,0, 0.8);">The EPac's on fire!!!

15:52, October 19, 2015 (UTC)

It's looking like it might be a category 4 now. We'll see what the next advisory says. Also, the T-number of 6.0 estimates winds of 132 mph, category 4. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:13, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * According to ATCF, a record has been broken. EP, 19, 2015101918,, BEST, 0, 100N, 1382W, 115, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 15, 1010, 270, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, If this intensity holds (or better yet, increases) for the next advisory, we have our record-breaking 8th Category 4. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:46, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf looks amazing on sattelite imagery. It might even have a chance at cat 5 at the rate this goes. The abombinable snowman actually would be a pretty good way to describe this hurricane right now. Ryan1000 18:45, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure about a Category 5, simply because EWRCs tend to get in the way, but I'm still quite impressed by Olaf. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:48, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Apparently my nickname stuck, this is the abombinable snowman. It is now a cat. 4 and I wouldn't be surprised if it became a cat. 5. leeboy100 My Talk! 20:47, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yay! The record of category 4's in one season has been broken! Interestingly, there were no category 5's this season, and a category 5 now is unlikely unless Olaf continues to RI up to category 5, which I doubt, although there's a slight chance. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:38, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, the eye seems to have filled in, looks like an eyewall replacement cycle. Category 5's pretty much a no unless it's just temporary that the eye's filled in. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:47, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Woah, it was pretty shocking how it just managed to gather so much strength since yesterday. At this rate, we might even see a C5. :O A C5 does seem possible, if the eyewall replacement cycle you describe ends soon and is temporary. I'm quite impressed at how much strength Olaf put on. Call him "Monster Snowman" :P <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:30, October 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * It looks like it was indeed temporary, the eye's becoming more visible again, and it looks to perhaps be continuing to strengthen. Yes, Olaf is really the monster storm! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:35, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah Dylan, an ERC also got in the way of Jimena becoming a 5 earlier this year, but it's slightly possible since Olaf still has 2-3 more days until conditions become unfavorable for further development. However, if Olaf manages to become a cat 5, I think the abombinable snowman would actually be an understatement for this thing. President Snow? That seems better. Ryan1000 02:40, October 20, 2015 (UTC)

< Seeing as Jimena has nearly always (1979 being the exception) been used for storms that always end up either the second strongest or the third strongest of the season...I'm guessing Olaf may end up reaching the peak. Just a guess, though. Jake52 (talk) 08:07, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * First CPHC advisory out: 150 mph/938 mbar. Predicted to go to 155 mph before it stops. Jake52 (talk) 09:00, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it briefly gets to 160 mph, it's be nice to see a fish Cat 5 this late in the season. Either way, this thing is beautiful to watch and this is also the strongest incarnation of Olaf since 1979. Ryan1000 11:19, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Fun fact: this is the second-strongest incarnation of Olaf worldwide (well... actually, it already was upon becoming a Category 2, but still). Only the 2005 SPAC storm was stronger. The core convection appears to be warming ever so slightly, so I don't know if this Olaf will become a Category 5 like its 2005 incarnation did, but still, what a storm! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:21, October 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * I hope Olaf becomes a cat. 5. It would be nice to see a category 5 fish/snowman hybrid storm. Also, with Olaf, this season is now the third most active on record in the EPac (tied with 1982) with 23 named storms. If Twenty-E becomes Patricia, we will break 1982's record and instead tie with 1985 as the second most active EPac season. This season is incredible! leeboy100 Boo! 20:05, October 20, 2015 (UTC) (Grrrr, of course I forget to sign......again)
 * <font face="comic sans ms">"Oh sh*t, the snowman's melting!" . It's only a Cat. 3 now. Also, if the quote is not on comic sans, you are probably running linux! <font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog  19:47, October 21, 2015 (UTC) (As always, i also forgot to sign)


 * Indeed it is melting. Our precious little snowman storm is melting... NOO! D: And I'm obviously not running Linux since I'm seeing your comic sans perfectly, I run windows. :P Lol but anyway, it is weakening and should be dead by early next week. I'm glad it's not a land threat... <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:18, October 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf might pull off one more act before it melts. The forecast track has it curve back and reenter the Eastern Pacific while still tropical. Maybe it will do what Oho and Nora couldn't do. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:00, October 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * 😱😱😱😱😱 our snowman is melting D: though theres a lot of uncertainity regarding its track. on a side note. look at the eerily accurate prediction made a year ago by Raarah (Liz) --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  is Joaquin still there?  •  spam goes here ^_^  15:50, October 22, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Olaf (2nd time)
Back down to a strong 2 per the latest advisory, but Ryan, I like the idea of "President Snow" for a nickname! Olaf may not have become a 5, but it would've been considered a super typhoon by the JTWC were it west of the dateline, and that's enough to deserve "President Snow" IMO. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:54, October 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * "President Snow" is also a nice nickname to me. Anyway, Olaf continues to weaken, and should be down to C1 strength by tomorrow. Our snowman continues to melt, noo! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:26, October 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * It was nice while it lasted, but now Olaf is going to suffer the slow, dying fate that so many other hurricanes this year did in the waters north and east of Hawaii, without affecting land. See you again in 2021. Ryan1000 02:03, October 23, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Olaf (2nd time)
While the almighty Patricia rages towards Mexico, good ol' Olaf rebounds back to major status. 100 kts/958 mbar per the 11pm HST advisory, though a new one will be out shortly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:24, October 23, 2015 (UTC)


 * New advisory further ups the intensity to 105 kts/953 mbar. Normally this reintensification would be awesome to watch, but Patricia, being the strongest hurricane EVER by 1 min winds has 95% of my attention right now. Looks like a snowstorm came and stopped Olaf from melting more for now. Olaf is supposed to cross into the EPAC again while still tropical as well. Olaf's a fun fishspinner to watch! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:11, October 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Olaf, PLEASE head to Alaska and back home to Norway and let it SNOW! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 22:31, October 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah Olaf, head to Alaska to cause a snowman storm there! :D Well, about 99% of my attention is on the devastating and scary Patricia, but this thing is still swirling about in the CPac. I'm surprised it's back to major status, but it should weaken much more soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:42, October 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * While Patricia dissiptes over the mountains of Mexico, Olaf still exists, and I'd say it's a pretty long lasting storm which might still last 5 more days as a tropical cyclone! I'm kind of glad Olaf is staying, as I wasn't ready to let it go because it caused damage. Currently, although the convection remains deep, Olaf's looking disorganized like it's being walked on, so it's most likely melting again. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:17, October 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * Oh, I didn't know Olaf was still here. Sorry, Abombinable Snowman, President Snow, whatever you want to call it, but Patricia has stole your Thunder-snow. []
 * leeboy100 Patricia! 18:38, October 24, 2015 (UTC)

GFDL tracks this undergoing baroclinic process west of California. Other models are starting to get on this trend as well. The last storm to undergo extratopical transition in the EPac was Ignacio 97. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:00, October 25, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Olaf (3rd time)
Olaf is still hanging around in the same region, slowly weakening. Looks like the snowman won't reach Alaska (but his remnants might in the future if they survive up there!). It would've been cool if it actually did reach Alaska, lol. BTW, Olaf is down to 110 mph. Bye, President Snow! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:14, October 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * So Olaf's existed during the entire duration of Patricia forming and dissipating now. I have to say, Olaf's a powerful and long lasting storm. Also I think President Snow would be more fitting if it made landfall. Although Olaf's now less organized, it's still hanging on, and the forecast still briefly has it cross from the CPAC to the EPAC and do what Oho didn't quite manage. ~ Raindrop57 (talk) 02:45, October 25, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olaf (2nd time)
Olaf's convection is getting torn up by shear and it's just a 60 mph TS now with the center exposed. However, it's only 1.6 degrees of latitude away from reentering the EPAC basin, and it's likely that it will enter it before dissipating. I'm surprised that the CPHC isn't saying stuff about Olaf likely moving back into the EPAC basin while still a tropical cyclone like they were predicting with Oho, as Olaf has a better shot at accomplishing that feat then Oho did. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:10, October 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * It relocated the center east of 140W, so it's the first TC since Ema in 1982 to move from central to eastern Pacific, and possibly the first one from Eastern to Central to Eastern basins.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:06, October 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks like our Snowman is melting. :( Well, he'll be back again someday. Ryan1000 23:59, October 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * So Olaf did it! He made it back into the EPAC basin with a nicely timed center relocation. Olaf achieved one more thing before it melted completely. Olaf, you've been an amazing storm to watch, achieved intensity records for the southernmost hurricane and major hurricane (odd for a snowman, but still cool), and crossed from the EPAC to the CPAC and back to the EPAC. And best of all, Olaf never affected land! The snowman was one of the most amazing storms this season. Good show, Olaf. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:14, October 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Olaf was incredibly amazing for sure. Like Raindrop already mentioned, it broke records for the southernmost hurricane and major hurricane on record. I can't believe it crossed from the EPac to the CPac and back! Amazing feat, melting snowman! I am also glad that Olaf never affected land. It was a nice to track storm, which is melting almost to completion now. Thanks for the entertainment, Olaf (the snowman)! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:44, October 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Is it just me, or has Olaf been behaving like a Cape Verde-type hurricane from the Atlantic's glory days? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:44, October 27, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf
Soon after reentering the Eastern Pacific basin, Olaf's post-tropical. I'm not surprised, the little bit of convection left was warming and no new convection was forming. Hats off to the amazing snowman! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:06, October 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * So Olaf the snowman has melted for good now. :( Well, at least he didn't afftect land, so he'll be coming back in 2021! Ryan1000 03:59, October 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * With Olaf gone and no chance of tropical development in this basin or the Atlantic, I'm bored. Hoping for some AOI's soon, as that would be a shame if the season's already over... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:22, October 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Honestly, I wouldn't mind if the Atlantic and EPAC stayed dead. Olaf and Patricia would make for one hell of a capstone for this year's EPAC season, as would Joaquin for the Atlantic. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:26, October 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * I agree, the basins should probably stay dead so we can have a fantastic capstone to both of the basins. Though, I wouldn't mind the basins seeing at least one more storm, but that chance is beginning to look more unlikely as we enter November and the end of the season soon. With these two basins dying, the WPac should get a few more storms to track, and the NIO should get a couple storms too as it will be November and will be the secondary peak of that season. The Southern Hemisphere will also start producing more storms too next month. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:54, October 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Might I suggest that Olaf be given his own archive? I checked how much text has been dedicated to Olaf, and found that this section contains over 38 kb of text. We gave Halola her own archive for half that amount. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:29, October 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm ok with the Atlantic being done, with Joaquin ending off the season and all, unlike 2014 when Hanna the theif came and took that finale away from Gonzalo. However, I think that an off season storm would be a cool way to end a hyperactive season like this one, even though Patricia and Olaf were epic (especially Patricia) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:29, October 30, 2015 (UTC)

20E.PATRICIA
See the archive on Patricia.

AOI: GFS California run
Things could get epic if this turns out to be true. I don't completely buy it yet. Owen 16:58, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

are you shure its not an ET system? if its a tropical one. gg california. edit: dropped for 12z --<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:06, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looks ET to me. Still a big storm for California and would be interesting nonetheless. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:19, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * The title of this thread made me interested for a bit until I saw that the storm is headed for the San Francisco area and NorCal, and won't do much to SoCal (the place where I live). I also think this is an extratropical system, because it's like impossible for tropical systems to impact our state! I don't buy it either, unless it is an extratropical storm. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:01, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I believee there have been two storms that impacted California. Can´t look now maybe later for info, and I believe one was a hurricane.Allanjeffs 21:57, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * There was a hurricane that impacted SoCal in 1858 (I believe), and in 1933, there was the Long Beach tropical storm. Those were the storms you were most likely referring to. Anyway, this has got to be an extratropical storm. It is like impossible for hurricanes to strike San Francisco. Waters are way too cold and conditions are always too unfavorable up there. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:15, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 1 - October 17)
Continued from the discussion here. It's here in this basin now, and we'll see what eventually comes from this. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:15, October 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was located only a bit west of the AOI, and this was actually a completely separate wave. It's no longer on the TWD, so it has dissipated. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:03, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

(What Steve and Raindrop were discussing before the AOI header was put up)
 * Is this the 0/30 AOI that I see on the 5 day outlook? If it is then we can make a new heading. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:58, October 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * You're right. The tropical wave is actually near the western edge of the AOI, but I still think the tropical wave is causing a lot of the activity. It's 0/40 currently and we might see "Patricia" by next week. (Update 10/17/2015: Actually this was a separate tropical wave that was just a bit west of the AOI. The wave itself has dissipated now, but the AOI is still here.) <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:42, October 16, 2015 (UTC)