User blog comment:Andrew444/Are we going to see an Alpha this year in the Atlantic?/@comment-3175978-20130820132715/@comment-4074533-20130820135234

Liz, the SAL and wind shear are so strong right now we might make it to the end of August with only one or two more storms. As for September, I would like eight storms, but the problem is, the conditions in the Atlantic are like 2002, 2007, 2009, or 2011. Unfortunately, I fear our September will be like 2007's. 2007's September was fine stormwise, but it was otherwise pretty bad. Three of the storms (Ingrid, Jerry, and Melissa) likely would have been missed had this been the 1950's, and I guarantee Gabrielle, Humberto, Karen, and Lorenzo likely would have been underestimated intensitywise or just missed altogether. I would want a 2010 September, but the shear will likely prevent any Danielle or Julia wannabes. Four storms in October might actually be an overestimate. I think one or two storms is a better guess. IMO, last year really only had two October storms. Oscar and Patty were wastes of names, and Tony I question as well. I wish we could have a 2010 October, but I doubt it. As for November, I will not guarantee a storm. It would be cool if we had a Quinn*, Rolf*, Sean, or Joachim* system though. And the ACE might be an overstimate if we get a 2011 parade of weak storms. To be honest, I want lots of strong systems, but the Atlantic has just been incapable of making strong systems since 2010.


 * =European windstorm