Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future start
Coming in slightly more than one month :D.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Betting pools
Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC)

August
Has (officially) begun, but nothing is active as of now. Ryan1000 06:25, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

The NHC is now issuing experimental GTWO's which predict a tropical cyclone's formation probability in the next five days. Also, the Saharan Air Layer is very intense right now over the Atlantic. We probably will not get another tropical cyclone for another week or so. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:25, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, there's a dust storm over the Sahara right now and that will slow down Cape Verde activity for the next week or two. But this isn't any different from 2007 or 2010. We will have a lot of waves in the late weeks of August and September that could develop by then. Ryan1000 17:49, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

AOI.Near Lesser Antillies
Near 0% as of now, though some models are picking up on this in the long run. Could be something to watch. Ryan1000 13:21, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

This AOI is in unfavorable conditions. It might take several days for it to develop. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:24, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

All the models develop this or another aoi that develop in the southwestern caribbean.supposedly it will move into Nic/Hon border or it will move north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.Allanjeffs 18:48, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * It could become TS Erin in the Western Caribbean, but I doubt it'll do much anyways. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now 10%, for the next 2 and 5 days. Ryan1000 00:50, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

I'm thinking this MIGHT become Erin by the 12th or 13th if she can battle wind shear, then activity post-Erin will explode. We'll probably get Jerry by the end of the month. If I have to be honest, Erin might be another minimal tropical storm. We'll see the big ones after Fernand. (Gabrielle might become one, definitely Humberto because of sluggish activity and possibly Ingrid and Karen.) after all, the SAL has moved to Houston... Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 01:10, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

This AOI is still in unfavorable conditions. I doubt any major explosion will happen yet. Also, I think ending at Jerry for August is a little too much. I think we will end at Fernand or Gabrielle at month's end, similar to 2010 and 2003. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:14, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

I don't think this will do much, but it could become Erin in the Western Caribbean. Anyway, I think this month will stop at either Gabrielle or Humberto. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:54, August 8, 2013 (UTC) Agreed with Stevie on this one. I wouldn't underestimate the season yet. Jerry is only a possibility. We are definitely gonna see the great hum by the end of the month, at the very least. Just my opinion. 10% Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 16:00, August 8, 2013 (UTC) I have also changed my prediction of the big one. I used to think ingrid would be the bad one... But it has changed to Gabrielle or that humberto one. Sluggish activity, that's all. This month will en at about humberto now. Or if we are really lucky ingrid. (Note I'm typing this on an iPhone.) Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 16:10, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * "I" names are cursed; they've always seemed to have done something bad, at least since 2001, every original "I" name from then on out got retired barring Isaac from last year, which came so close. Then again, every season is different, although "I" names almost always seem to be at the core of the season these days. Ryan1000 21:01, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic is about to get into gear base on the GFS anter Ivo and Juliette the gfs is showing 5 storms in the Atlantic 3 of them near the cape verdes.Allanjeffs 05:07, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I've been watching a few waves near Cape Verde; some of them look prime to develop, but it'll just take some time for the dry air to get out of the way. Ryan1000 13:42, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * This AOI is off the TWO!  Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:35, August 9, 2013 (UTC)

AoI: Western Gulf of Mexico
10%/10%. Not likely to become much, but it's worth pointing out. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:27, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * I don't think this will become anything. It's just another random AOI.  Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:02, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Ummmmm I think it will- by a few days. If it does then erin will be a weak ts. Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 15:59, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We have enough storms in this season to start this section (four), but nothing is worth retiring so far.

My predictions:

Andrea - 1% - It affected a variety of regions, but it is not going.

Barry - 0.5% - If Arlene was not retired for affecting the same regions as Barry did, it is not going as well.

Chantal - 0.1% - One death does not cut it in this case.

Dorian - 0.01% - Just for regenerating after everyone said it was done.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

STO12's Predictions


 * ANDREA: 20% Caused some impact to Florida and the southeast, but not significant enough for a retirement.
 * BARRY: 15% Torrential rains in Central America, but not enough impact to sustain a retirement.
 * CHANTAL: 5% Caused very little impact to the windward islands, no retirement for Chantal.
 * DORIAN: 5% No impact to land as a tropical storm. It's remnants and regenerated tropical depression status did more.

ST✪12 01:42, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * But what about its remnants? Wouldn't the remains of Dorian have a possibility to cause at least some impact/damage? Jeffrey1998 (talk) 04:16, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, Dorian's remnants have a 10% chance of coming back. He still has a chance to do something. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * You honestly think Dorian is going to regenerate? I don't and it's at 0% right now, so I was correct. Dorian was a fail to me, its remnants didn't do anything big. -.- ST✪12 23:11, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I said that two days ago, when it had a chance of regenerating. But now, he's dead. Dorian never did jack sh!t. Ryan1000 03:23, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Here's my predictions!

Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 5% - Caused some impact to the southeast, but too little impact for retirement.
 * Barry - 1% - Affected Mexico, but it will not be retired.
 * Chantal - 0.1% - Caused very little impact.
 * Dorian - -∞% - Hell no!

RyanK is here: That's all for now. Ryan1000 16:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 2% - Not much different from Alberto '06. Caused some flooding, but nothing severe.
 * Barry - 2% - Just like Bret '05. Some damage, some deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough to warrant retirement.
 * Chantal - 1% - I was hoping to see more from Chantal, but it fell flat on it's face in the open Caribbean...Still, give it a 1% for the death in the Dominican Republic.
 * Dorian - 0% - It tried and failed.

BONJOUR, CA VA? Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! 17:51, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea = 5%. She did cause a bit of hype along the northeast but her impacts were not life-threatening, just too petty.
 * Barry = 1%. That name did give me the creeps when I first saw it on the list but he is nothing more than a candidate for 2019's hurricane list.
 * Chantal = 0%. That was absolutely dreadful.
 * Dorian = -∞%. What the bloody hell was that? 

Mid-season predictions
This is the time of the season when CSU and NOAA issue their mid-season forecasts for the remainder of the season. To concide with their recent predictions, I will release my personal mid-season predictions in this section. If anyone else would like to have a say in the activity for the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season, please feel free to post it here.

For the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I predict:

16 named storms (Pablo), 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 155.

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has had a very weak start. Although we have had four tropical storms, none of them have been strong or destructive. My previous prediction called for 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricane. However, this forecast assumed June and July would be hectic. In reality, these two months were pathetic. A good analouge for this season, in my opinion, would be 2003, 2007, or 2010. All three of these seasons had sluggish June-Augusts, but then imploded in September. 2013 is poised to do the same. Also, I think we could see a re-Isabel or re-Ivan this season. In addition, it should be noted both 2003 and 2007 had a power outage of strong storms. 2007 had plenty of storms (fifteen), but only one storm (Dean) lasted longer than a week. 2003 had three impressive major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel, and Kate), but was otherwise a dud season, minus Juan. I think 2013 will also be devoid of many strong system. This is why my forecast calls for a truckload of storms, but a disproportionate amount of hurricanes.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew 2013 has been extremely active.It already has 4 name storms.2010 have Danielle until August 21 so give it a chance.I believe we are going to get between 16 to 17 names storms 8 to 9 hurricanes and 4 to 5 majors.Allanjeffs 19:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think we'll get a very active season this year; my predictions in my blog could actually be lackluster, I wouldn't be surprised if we get an explosion of activity in late August and September and possibly even run the table this year. I'm predicting a total of 18-21 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Don't lose hope for this year just yet. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC)