Forum:2013 North Indian Ocean cyclone season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:19, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

91B.INVEST
Organized convective sytem positioned west of southern India, betwen the coast of the subcontinent and the Maldavies. Latest AMSUB pass reveals rain rates of about 1.5" per hour in more convective areas.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:40, May 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Latest check on NRL website indicates that 91B.INVEST is no longer being monitored.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:07, May 7, 2013 (UTC)

92B.INVEST
Originated in the eastern Bay of Bengal on May 4, and has moved slowly westward, though is still in the bay. Currently an organized swirl of clouds with not much convective activity.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:40, May 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Convection fired up overnight, storm still in the central Bay of Bengal. Storm is generally stationary.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:07, May 7, 2013 (UTC)

Depression BOB 01
Wuh oh...I have a bad feeling about this...Ryan1000 13:37, May 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I have a bad feeling about this particular storm as well. It grew exponentially larger over the last day and now its a large depression with a lot of moisture. This is expected to reach 90 kt (105 mph) by the time it makes Myanmar. And unfortunately, any storm that makes landfall in Myanmar is going to have a considerable impact.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:51, May 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree. While BOB 01 is currently moving northwestward, it could turn towards Burma soon. Hopefully, this depression will not become Nargis 2.0. On the flip side, assuming the depression becomes a cyclonic storm, it will mark the first time since 2010 a cylonic storm formed in May in the NIO basin. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:54, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Deep Depression BOB 01
And also, the depression has intensified. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:56, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Better get named soon... Isaac829 E-Mail  23:51, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Mahasen
Track is shifting a bit towards the west, now southern Bangladesh is in its sights. Forecast to peak as a cat 1 or 2 before making landfall by Monday. While Bangladesh is still vulnerable, they've been preparing quite a bit in rescent years and the death toll of tropical cyclones there has greatly decreased there since the tragic cyclones of 1970 and 1991 (and hopefully even more since Sidr in 2007). Hopefully this won't be so bad for the folks there. Ryan1000 11:18, May 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dvorak estimates for Mahasen are currently T2.5. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:25, May 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * JTWC forecast cuts landfall down to 55 kt, but a peak of 85 kt or higher in the Bay of Bengal is forecast. ADT rose to 3.1 (61 kt), which is much higher than its current intensity.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:23, May 11, 2013 (UTC)

As this storm moves slowly, paralleling the east Indian coastline, Mahasen is causing widespread destruction. Waves and rain are inundating coastal areas... and even when a few days out from landfall, it has already costed the lives of 15 people, and reports are flowing in that the death toll may be already in excess of 200 people. While a large death toll was not entirely surprising due to the relatively poor living conditions there, it has been a tragic and unfortunate day along the coasts of the Bay of Bengal.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:31, May 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, on the bright side, Mahasen didn't intensify as much as initially forecast, so this could've been much worse. Had it become a cat 1-2 like the models were earlier predicting, we could've had a storm kill thousands of people here. Ryan1000 11:13, May 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Near landfall, still can kill thousands of people. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:39, May 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Made landfall, almost gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  01:12, May 17, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone Mahasen
Dead. 15 deaths confirmed thus far, hopefully it won't go much higher. 11:16, May 17, 2013 (UTC)Ryan1000

UPDATE:Make that 93. This is pretty unfortunate...Ryan1000 11:23, May 17, 2013 (UTC)

96 deaths. :( Luckily, the storm did not intensify to a Category 2 or 3/severe cyclonic storm like it was expected. Also, just to mention, Sri Lanka officialists are requesting international agencies to not identify this destructive storm as Cyclonic Storm Mahasen because that name refers to King Mahasena of Anuradhapura, a king which brought prosperity to the country. Source: . Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:27, May 17, 2013 (UTC)

I wonder why did they submit it in the first place... Isaac829 E-Mail  01:16, May 18, 2013 (UTC)

93A.INVEST
This year's first identified and monitored system in the Arabian Sea, a bit east of Socotra Island. Currently a disorganized batch of thunderstorms.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:22, May 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * The invest remains an unorganized area of thundershowers... 173.172.102.166 01:28, May 22, 2013 (UTC)

94B.INVEST
With Hurricane Wiki's appreciation for the basins under the purview of the National Hurricane Center, we must have completely forgotten about this invest in the Bay of Bengal. This system formed yesterday and is bringing a lot of moisture to the same areas effected by Mahasen.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:51, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

Depression BOB 02

 * This system got pretty organized in the Bay of Bengal before making landfall a few hours ago near Kolkatta, India. Heavy rains expected.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:22, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

95A.INVEST
Nice little batch and swirl of convection off the Arabian Peninsula which formed yesterday a few hours after 94B.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:51, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

Land Depression 01
Surprise, surprise! A monsoonal low-pressure system has organized itself and become a depression with 25 knot winds (3-minute sustained). It is not expected to become a cyclonic storm, just weaken, and the JTWC does not have this depression up yet. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:45, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Four fatalities have been reported from Depression BOB 04. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Been a while since the NIO kicked up something, but this won't be a huge problem, nothing like the floods that happened in India earlier this year anyways. Ryan1000 15:29, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Land Depression 01
The depression has degenerated into a well-marked low pressure area. It did cause some flooding in India, but it was not that extreme. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:41, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

November
Is...well about to begin but hopefully Phailin was all we'll ever get. Ryan1000 00:57, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

90A.INVEST
As we watch Haiyan explode in the WPAC, a new invest has popped up here in the NIO near Somalia. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:58, November 8, 2013 (UTC)

Depression ARB 01
Now it is time for Somalia to feel the effects of the now-destructive 2013 tropical cyclone season. The NIO has initiated advisories on the 25 knot (30 mph, 45 km/h) (3-minute sustained winds), 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) Depression ARB 01. The JTWC has this depression at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds), making it the third tropical storm of the year by their standards. The NIO does not expect a cyclonic storm, but the JTWC predict the depression's one-minute sustained winds to reach 45 knots (50 mph). It looks Phailin is not the end... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:15, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * I actually think we will see Helen from this, although it will be a weakling. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 01:10, November 9, 2013 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 01
Steven, you may be up to something! While the JTWC has kept its intensity on this depression since my last post, the NIO has lowered the system's pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg) and raised its winds to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (3-minute sustained), giving us our third deep depression of the year. In addition, the NIO now expect a cyclonic storm from the deep depression, but it will at most only get to the level Mahasen peaked at. Watch out, Somalia and Ethiopia! It's your turn to get hit now! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * I doubt this will become that strong. Hopefully any flooding won't be too severe. Ryan1000 16:01, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, the NIO no longer expects this deep depression to become a cyclonic storm. This may be good for Somalia. However, the JTWC has bumped the depression's one-minute sustained winds to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:13, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * The deep depression is bearing down on Somalia. It no longer has any hope of further intensification. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:01, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yep, I no longer think this will become Helen. Somalia could get lots of rain from this though. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 22:28, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Winds from Deep Depression ARB 01 are down to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:41, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * With the same one-minute sustained winds as above, Deep Depression ARB 01 made landfall in Somalia last night. It is dead per the JTWC, but hanging on per the IMD. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:51, November 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm sorry to say that this storm has killed 100 people, making it the deadliest Somalian cyclone on record :( The new blog post from Dr. Masters states that it's tied with a 1994 cyclone, but Wikipedia only mentions 30 deaths from that one. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:20, November 11, 2013 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Depression 30W (Wilma)
Maybe the NIO is not done at all just yet. Tropical Depression Wilma (30W) just made her way into the Bay of Benegal, and she has a medium chance of regenerating in the next 24 hours, although wind shear lays in her vicinity. For previous discussion on this storm, see here Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:22, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Maybe this could become Lehar. Who knows... —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 01:10, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * The system is still hanging on, and the IMD acknowledged it could regenerate into a depression. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:53, November 11, 2013 (UTC)