Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: Coming off of Africa
Yet another wave is coming off of Africa. A couple of the models show some development from it. --Patteroast 13:18, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Up on NHC at low risk, 10%. --Patteroast 16:36, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * 20%. Still, Gaston just fell apart, so... --Patteroast 13:20, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * 30% Hermine gonna follow her brother? Is she gonna be smart and not to try to form? atomic 77 32 23:14, September 3, 2010 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Invest'd. Both this and ex-Gaston are on the Mariner's 1-2-3 rule graphic as danger areas. --Patteroast 01:39, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * The invest has become more spread out, risk is back down to 20% for now. --Patteroast 17:21, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ah, reduced to 10% shortly after I posted that... --Patteroast 17:58, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * And not even on NHC or NRL anymore. --Patteroast 09:23, September 5, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Bay of Campeche/Remnants of 11E
Some storms that seem to be pretty closely related to ex-depression 11E have been mentioned by NHC the last couple days. In 11E's final advisory, there was mention that some models develop something in the southern Gulf of Mexico... it's unclear whether it might be 11E itself or other nearby storms. Either way, there's a 20% risk right now. --Patteroast 17:28, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * And of course, right after I post that they up it to 30%. --Patteroast 17:58, September 4, 2010 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Invest'd and up to 50% risk. --Patteroast 09:23, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * High risk, 60%. --Patteroast 13:10, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * It will be a new Depression since the invests been renumbered and the LLCC has dissipated.JasonRees 00:48, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * I figured. I can't say I've even seen them mention any connection to 11E. It's up to 80% now. --Patteroast 00:59, September 6, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten
Upgraded! Tropical storm warnings up to the Rio Grande. Forecast to become Hermine. --Patteroast 02:56, September 6, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hermine
Upgrade on 5:00 UTC. --88.102.101.245 11:33, September 6, 2010 (UTC)


 * Interesting again. Formed out of 11-E's remnants in the East Pac, and now it could threaten Texas. At worst it could pull a Bret, but we have to wait to be sure. Ryan1000 15:06, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wow, this storm crossed over via the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and ended up in the Gulf. Model tracks have trended farther north in past 12 hours. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:42, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * No, Hermine did not form from 11E, instead, it formed from a trough-split and TD11E's remnants just went over to that area. Hermine should make landfall tonight, and we should see some flooding in MX especially since they haven't fully recovered from Alex. Darren 23 Edits 22:15, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * I belive it partly formed from ex-11E and a trough split. YE Tropical Cyclone  00:43, September 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Landfall. --Patteroast 03:13, September 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Final advisory, over northern Texas. --Patteroast 12:35, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

AoI:Yet Another Wave
Wow... This could get serious. GFS has it forming upon contact with water. So does TAFB experimental. atomic 77 32 02:05, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Jeff Masters on Wunderground mentioned this. Wonder how it will fare compared to 99L... --Patteroast 03:06, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * This wave scares me, really, I mean, there is a good chance it will form, a good chance it will be a hurricane and a very decent shot at major hurricane status. I will watch out for Igor in the next 5 days. Darren 23 Edits 03:12, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * I want a fish please. YE Tropical Cyclone  03:33, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * One circulation appearing northwest of Cape Verde, and another just coming off the coast of Africa. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:45, September 6, 2010 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
The circulation closer to the coast is now 91L. NHC has it at 40% risk. NHC also has the other center at 10%. --Patteroast 04:00, September 8, 2010 (UTC)


 * I know I said this for Gaston (the redevelopment of which is still not out of the question) but this one looks scary. Most of the models make this a significant hurricane and take it westward to just north of the Leeward Islands, maintaining a strong ridge. I've seen far to many 'I' storms become household names. Gaston was killed by dry air, the abundance of which has been the wild card this season. There is a huge mass of dry air in the upper levels over the tropical Atlantic that seems to be associated with a massive upper-level low. That low is forecast to lift out to the northeast over the next few days. I don't expect this ridiculous amount of dry air to stick around for very long. I don't expect our ridiculous amount of good luck to stick around much longer either. Nature keeps shooting at us and I get the feeling that sooner or later, she's gonna find her mark. -- SkyFury 05:52, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * NHC no longer notes the western bit as being separate. 91L is at 70% risk. --Patteroast 12:32, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Igor
Whoa! Went to check up on 91L and found Igor. Still in the vicinity of Cape Verde and already a storm... yikes. --Patteroast 15:59, September 8, 2010 (UTC)


 * This one looks really scary. It could run into some problems if that upper level dry air doesn't move out. However, most of the global models forecast an upper level anticyclone to form over the system toward the end of the period. If that happens, this could get ugly really fast. I wouldn't count on that ridge to weaken enough to turn Igor out to sea. -- SkyFury 17:54, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

It's way too early to tell; this is exactly what Earl looked like, just formed a little farther west. However, Igor is not grabbing my attention... yet. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:50, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think Igor will take a slightly more northeasterly track than Earl, sorta like Bill 09. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:45, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's only September and we have what last year ended with... My prediction is feasible. VERY feasible. atomic 77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 23:08, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I still say it's too soon to tell what Igor will do, but if I wait a week and come back, things could be very different, or it could just turn out to sea like Bill did. And Darren, the ACE of this year is just about 8 below 2007 as of now. You were right on the prediction you made for the ACE; 2010 will be hyperactive. However, numbers might not correspond. 1893 wasn't extremely active(though back in the 1800's, 13 storms was probrably exeptional), but the ACE of that year is in the top 10, largely due to the Charelston and Sea Islands hurricanes. Also, Igor is only heading west at 6 mph... I have a feeling that if that ridge stays strong, it could be a long-lived storm with an exeptionally high ACE. Ryan1000 23:46, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Huh? Igor is getting me scratching my head right now. Since when do storms stall off of Cape Verde? This isn't quite what Fred did, but Igor just doesn't want to move. Can anyone explain this? This storm is downright weird to me. Ryan1000 11:11, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Igor appears to be weakening and drifting north, but the ridge to its north will keep it from doing so. Maybe the steering currents in this area are very weak. GFS turns it out to sea and brushes it off Newfoundland, but at cat. 2 predicted in 5 days, you never know. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 11:58, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * The scenario being portrayed by the GFS right now is really quite terrifying. Not only does it show Igor becoming a strong hurricane, it also shows another wave coming in behind it out of nowhere and just exploding. Meanwhile, it moves 92L NW through the Caribbean as a well-organized tropical storm ("Julia") headed for the Gulf of Mexico. And near the end of the week, it develops yet another storm off Africa. At the end, you can see the predicted trough eroding the ridge ahead of Igor and a new high pressure system moving off the east coast. This pattern would recurve Igor away from land. If this happened, it would appear likely that the new ridge would strengthen in the wake of Igor and force the hypothetical hurricane behind it ("Karl") westward, very possibly right into the Carolinas. And who knows what a hypothetical "Julia" would do once it cleared the Yucatan. All the models I have access to develop something substantial behind Igor in 60-72 hrs. Most make it just as big as Igor. -- SkyFury 20:05, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * What you're predicting is way to far out to be certain, but it is not a good thing to see. Also, Igor is just not moving. If the steering currents remain weak, it will just sit over the Cape Verdes and soak them up in several inches, possibly feet, of rain. I don't know if it'll pull a Beryl, but I have to wait to be sure. That's all I can say for now.Ryan1000 21:18, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * I never said anything was certain. All I said was that the model forecasts look pretty scary right now. -- SkyFury 22:19, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * This storm is trending west after stalling, but down to a TD. Large burst of convection, likely to eventually become a major, and active Cape Verde Season continues. GFS model actually creates up to Nicole by September 25. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:41, September 9, 2010 (UTC)

I saw this coming. Epic fail. Igor, just as did your epic fail brother Gaston, you failed us. Since when do storms fail over Cape Verde? <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 00:25, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Yeah, that's not really helpful at all. The forecast still brings Igor to hurricane strength. --Patteroast 01:54, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Gaston's remnants were partly destroyed by land interaction with Puerto Rico, Hispanola and Jamaica, but it appears Cape Verde storms this year are prone to weakening or dissapating in the southeastern Main Development Region. In fact, Alex would have been a long-lived, Cape Verde-type hurricane had it been classified as a TD on June 14 when it formed. If Igor stays weak it could impact land, but it looks like it'll most likely head out to sea. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 11:54, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Igor's back up to tropical storm strength. --Patteroast 23:23, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hmmm... Igor is much better organized on the sattelite imagery right now. If Igor slows down like it did by the Cape Verdes earlier, then it might miss the same trough that recurved Earl, and hit the U.S. Stay tuned. Igor is showing signs of exploding in intensity, and this may not look so good... Ryan1000 02:08, September 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * I actually think Igor has a better chance of missing the East coast than Earl. The storm, If I'm forecasting it correctly, it should miss the Leewards and maybe on a more Danielle-type path. I seriously think this storm would be a fish, although since the models have slightly shifted south, this is a low-confidence forecast. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:26, September 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * The latest advisory has Igor near hurricane strength and strengthening. --Patteroast 08:43, September 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * Very close to a hurricane now, and it's had a well-defined eye for several hours. Quite a large storm, could become yet another cat. 4, and has a chance of affecting the Leewards or Canadian Maritimes. Unlikely to impact the US significantly unless it pulls an Ike, which by the way is a historical analog along with the 1938 Long Island express. Most models take it out to sea. This could become the strongest hurricane of the season. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:14, September 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * NHC has upped their forecast to a Cat 4, although it should be moving NW by then, missing the Leewards. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:52, September 11, 2010 (UTC)

Hurricane Igor
Upgraded. --Patteroast 05:46, September 12, 2010 (UTC)


 * It doesn't seem so likely as Igor will hit the east coast as of now, but Bemuda may have to watch out 4-5 days from now. I'm expecting Igor to go on a Bill-like track, however; missing Bermuda to the west and the U.S. to the east, as well as impacting Atlantic Canada as a category one storm or so. Still, this storm is way far out. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 13:21, September 12, 2010 (UTC)


 * Possibility of becoming a category 5, hitting Bermuda. Some waters in its path cooled by Earl but warmed by constant outflow from the Caribbean and Gulf Stream. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:33, September 12, 2010 (UTC)


 * A cat. 2 right now, but could do a 20-mb drop during rapid intensification and be a cat. 3 or 4 at the next advisory. The storm seems to be shedding some of its feeder bands and its outer layers are contracting.. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:44, September 12, 2010 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Igor
Boom category 4! 20 mb drop in 3 hours. It's exploding, I think. Also, Igor looks very annular. No trace of a forming outer eyewall. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 18:37, September 12, 2010 (UTC)


 * WHOA!!! Igor just exploded in the last few hours! At the rate Igor is going, it could easily continue to explode in intensity and possibly become a category 5 monster! I don't know if the east coast will be hit, but Bermuda better watch out, this one could be heading straight for the island! I'm pretty stunned. This thing went from a category 1 to 4 in only 6 hours! This thing is so awesome to view on the sattelites, but it still could threaten land. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 19:28, September 12, 2010 (UTC)


 * The satellite images are just SCREAMING annular hurricane. It's got all the necessary conditions. This could become stronger than Isabel 2003, and it doesn't have to go far to beat Earl. It's already at 935 mb, 130 kts. It has a full disk of convection surrounding the eye. A category five is in the forecast, and it could remain that intensity, but could lose annular status when it hits 29C+ waters. Isabel didn't become annular until it approached the longitude of Barbados. This could be a big problem, whether a cat. 5 giving off rip tides for the US, a cat. 4 hitting Bermuda, or a cat. 3 hitting Newfoundland. A lot of us predicted this name to be a very strong hurricane. Looks like that prediction is coming true. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:10, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * Igor's forecast now brings it to category five! --Patteroast 03:05, September 13, 2010 (UTC)


 * Igor!! Holy sh!t! Wow! 150 mph and counting. It's now forecast to become a Cat. 5 briefly and that wouldn't surprise me at all. This is an incredible hurricane. An ERC will likely put an end to the party before too long but who knows how strong Igor'll be by that time. It's not gonna stop strengthening until that happens. Looking at the track, Bermuda better be paying attention because it could get awfully close by about Saturday night/Sunday morning. Astro, for the record, not every hurricane with a large eye and a smooth, circular shape is an annular hurricane. An annular hurricane is more like Epsilon or Ophelia where the eye is larger than the CDO, and not even all of those are annular. -- SkyFury 03:13, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * There is no doubt Igor was annular. There was never an outer eyewall, and it looked perfect. Annulars are circular at weaker intensities, normally the stronger the more symmetric, but you can't beat an annular at symmetric. It definitely looks like Igor dropped annular characteristics though. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 13:59, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wow, Igor looks even better. The presentation both on visible and IR has noticably improved. Igor is probably on the verge of Category 5 strength, 135-140 knots. If this trend continues, I would be surprised if NHC doesn't bump up the intensity just a bit. However, I don't think it'll be long before an eyewall replacement cycle begins. Less than 12 hours. If Igor reaches Cat 5 strength, it will likely be within the next 3-4 hours. Take a picture, Igor won't stay there long. If it gets to 140 knots, it'll be the first Cat 5 in the Atlantic in three years. God, I love this! This is awesome! Wow, what a storm! -- SkyFury 17:47, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * Whoowee! Igor is an epic win right now. Perfect cloud tops, an annular hurricane, and, unfortunately, heading for Bermuda possibly, as at least a category 3. Also, Eric, since Igor is an annular hurricane, even if it does undergo an eyewall cycle, it probrably won't weaken so much. Isabel had to undergo two eyewall cycles to drop from category 5 to category 4. If Igor continues to blow and not undergo an eyewall cycle, it will most likely reach category 5 very soon. Also, if it does hit cat. 5, it will be the first category 5 to miss land directly since Cleo in 1958. Ryan1000 21:13, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * I still think you guys are misinterpriting the definition of 'annular hurricane' but I agree that, given the conditions and superb structure of the hurricane, when it does undergo an ERC, it may not weaken much or it may quickly reorganize. As of the latest microwave imagery (about five hours ago), there is no sign of an eyewall cycle, although I still think one is likely within the next 12 hours. The eyewall has been able to sustain itself at 130 knots for 18 straight hours and it doesn't appear to be slowing down. I'm amazed it's not stronger. Cloud tops have warmed a bit since that burst at around noon. It's possible that the shear size of the hurricane is slowing further strengthening. The microwave imagery does make Igor look much less impressive than it does on the IR. This is Igor during the burst earlier today. This is a Category 5. See the difference? Now that takes nothing away from Igor, it's still an incredible hurricane, but it's not a Category 5. Now, if we were going to have a Cat 5, this would be the place you'd want to have it: out over open water and no threat to land. I will say that conditions in the Caribbean are pretty much ideal right now and probably would support a powerful hurricane if one headed there. Proximity to land has precluded 92L from becoming a significant Caribbean hurricane. -- SkyFury 23:04, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, maybe not a perfect annular storm, but one nontheless. Also, Eric, Igor is weakening a bit, now at 140 mph and 937 mbars. However, as I said, that isn't so much, and once this cyle is over, it has a chance for category 5 again. It may not certainly happen, but no matter what, Bermuda must watch out for Igor about 4 days from now. Ryan1000 03:19, September 14, 2010 (UTC)
 * This could easily become another Fabian, as it's predited to track just west of Bermuda as a cat. 3. However the island should be more prepared than in 2003, though we have warmer waters, good outflow and a very large storm easily the size of the entire Gulf. It could even become an annular hurricane again while approaching Bermuda, as it reaches waters just cooler than 29C, but currently it has lost that distinction while it was previously marginally annular. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:11, September 14, 2010 (UTC)

I wouldn't rule out Cat. 5 yet. Look at Igor now! It's grown even larger and is strengthening. The official forecast now brings it up to 130 knots, but with recent satellite estimates at 127, 133, and 127, I think it's already there. And with the diurnal maximum coming up, Igor may just pull it off. I will say, Igor may be the most visually spectacular Atlantic hurricane since Isabel. Reminds me a bit of his predecessor. Bermuda, the stronger Igor gets, the stronger it's likely to be when it gets to you. Preparations begin NOW! -- SkyFury 02:37, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * 135!! Igor is a strike away! -- SkyFury 02:46, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wow indeed. I never saw this coming. If we have just two more category 4 storms, we will shatter 2005's and 1999's record. Julia is the strongest hurricane recorded east of 35 degrees west, and Igor could pull another Fabian. And this year might just be only the second season on record with two category 4's active in the open Atlantic ocean at the same time. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 10:48, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hmmm... Igor has dropped down to 135 mph since it had that brief strife for category 5 earlier today; I just think it's just undergoing another ERC. However, Igor is downright enormus; it has one of the largest gale diameters of any Atlantic storm on record. The forecast brings it right by Bermuda as a 100 mph storm or so, but because it is an Ike-size storm, the island could easily be swamped by this monster-- under up to a 10-foot storm surge. It is forecast to restrengthen when this ERC is finished, but the shallow island is very vulnerable to storm surge from hurricanes. Right now it doesn't matter how strong it is(category 2 or up); the size of Igor will overpower all oposition. Bermuda is vulnerable, and they must get ready. NOW. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:05, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * The darned thing looks like Wilma! <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 23:05, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Uh oh. that ERC is just about wraped up, and when it does end in 3 or 6 hours, Igor will restrengthen, possibly to a chance for category 5 again, or category 5 all in all. The initial forecast calls for Igor to head right toward Bermuda. A slight 10 miles to the east or west won't save Bermuda from a slamming from this storm. It is forecast to pass by or over the island as a category 2, but the size of Ike. This thing could drown Bermuda if it stays this f**king massive, even though it might not be a major hurricane when it gets there. Keep your eyes out. This could be very bad. Ryan1000 00:34, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * Eye is shrinking, but the storm is getting bigger. It could weaken to a cat. 2, or it could stall, expand, then EWRC into an annular hurricane. This is only the second time ever we've had two cat. 4s in the Atlantic simultaneously. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:55, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * There are still no watches or warnings up for Bermuda from this monster. It's heading northwest, but it's starting to intensify again. It's now at 140 and 934. Also, it is the 10th largest Atlantic hurricane on record at this point, it's wind field goes out 480 miles. Also, this storm is still forecast to pass right by Bermuda. If that happens, the island will get a direct hit from the eyewall at this storm's maximum power. The Bermuda international airport should be getting busy right about now! Ryan1000 20:11, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * Down to a cat. 3 now, still EWRC'ing but expected to strengthen and it's still expanding like a monster. Maybe it's possible it could stall as the trough moves off and the storm starts to turn. Bermuda needs to watch this carefully, as the waters are actually warmer than when Fabian hit. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:42, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's looking awfully grim for Bermuda right now. The NHC advisory point for 8pm Sunday puts Igor almost directly over the island as a major hurricane. Bermuda's last big hit was Fabian back in 2003 (remember, Fabian was retired for the damage it did on the island). This could easily be as bad or worse. NHC is counting on that shear getting to Igor before it gets to Bermuda. Let's hope they're right, because right now, Igor controls his own destiny. -- SkyFury 06:39, September 17, 2010 (UTC)

And... it's back down to a category 2 hurricane, same as where Alex peaked. It has been fighting shear from a trough north of the storm, but it seems that shear is abating. It could be re-upgraded later tonight. Also, Igor is picking up some speed, and it is still forecast to hit Bermuda as a very strong and large hurricane. Bermuda must be evacuated. NOW. Ryan1000 21:04, September 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Forecast still points to Igor going back up to category three, but dropping back down to probably a two by the time it gets to Bermuda. Igor is a BIG storm. Even though it's moving fast, tropical storm winds will probably last a long time on Bermuda. --Patteroast 13:13, September 18, 2010 (UTC)

No, it won't reach category 3 again. However, it is forecast to turn north soon, and Igor's enormus size could hit Bermuda with a 12-15 foot storm surge! This thing will not be pretty for Bermuda. It is less than 2 days from a possible landfall, or direct hit at least. However, Igor is under too much shear to reach category 3 again. Igor may only have 100 mph winds, but because it is the third largest Atlantic hurricane on record, almost twice the size of Katrina, it could cause tremendous damage. Stay tuned... Ryan1000 22:58, September 18, 2010 (UTC)


 * Huh, Igor now has weakened into a category 1 hurricane. It's currently at 85 mph, and it's still fighting more shear. Igor may not turn out to be as bad as I was fearing, but it still has hurricane winds 90 miles out, and TS winds 345 miles out. It wouldn't surprise me if hurricane winds are already being felt on Bermuda, but even with just 85 mph winds, it is still possible that a 10 foot storm surge could be felt on the small island due to Igor's massive size. Stay tuned. We aren't out of the woods yet with this one. It could still be VERY destructive. Ryan1000 12:23, September 19, 2010 (UTC)


 * The southern part of this storm is eroding, but it's set to pass just west of Bermuda, giving it the storm's strongest winds. Storm surge, waves and rainfall should be the greatest concern, but since Bermuda is such a small island the storm surge probably won't build up. Hurricane-force wind gusts have hit Bermuda since last night. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:47, September 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * It appears Igor didn't turn out to be as bad as I was fearing. The storm made a slight 10 mile or so jog to the west before making it's way into Bermuda, sparing the island from a diret slamming, and the longest duration of winds. Also, Igor weakened down to a category 1 storm before making a direct hit. Had Igor held on to category 2 strength before hitting Bermuda, and not made that last-minute left-hand turn, Bermuda could have fared a lot worse than it did. The island got lucky with Igor. It could have been much worse. Ryan1000 22:01, September 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still, the tropical storm winds have only been gone for a short while in Bermuda. Tropical storm warnings up for Newfoundland, but it'll probably be extratropical by then. --Patteroast 20:32, September 20, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Near Trinidad
Up on the NHC at 40%. GFS model sends it on a Dean/Alex-like track, and stalls it in the BoC. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 11:59, September 9, 2010 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
The models don't seem very confused with this one. The general consensus seems to be on a general northwest track. Most of them drive it into the islands of the Greater Antilles and consequently give it a hard time developing. But a lot of them seem to think it'll become better organized later in the period as moves away from Cuba into the northwest Caribbean, headed for the Gulf of Mexico. -- SkyFury 20:09, September 9, 2010 (UTC)


 * IMO, they're all pretty straightforward. I don't know if 92L's progress will be hindered enough for development, but this one bears watching for sure. This is the exact same area where Gustav formed. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 21:21, September 9, 2010 (UTC)


 * Models go anywhere from the Bahamas and Florida to the Yucatan and northern Tamaulipas. SHIPS model combined with ensemble and model spread puts a cat. 3 hurricane in the Gulf. Possible future interaction with Gaston which would pull this storm farther north. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:43, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still organizing. Up to 50% risk. --Patteroast 23:24, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * High risk! 60%. --Patteroast 12:53, September 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still just sitting there at 60%... looking pretty thin at the moment, though. --Patteroast 05:46, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * Redeveloped a bit, but down to 50%. --Patteroast 13:37, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * New burst of convection, and looks like a significant rain threat for Haiti. I don't like the HWRF, which consistently puts the storm center over Haiti, but most models bring it over or just north of Jamaica. Looking like a BoC/Western Gulf storm. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:36, September 12, 2010 (UTC)

I get the feeling that interaction with land is what's slowing this one down. Once it gets into the western Caribbean, it'll have a better chance to develop and the models agree with me. The general consensus is taking a depression into the Yucatan and then developing it into Tropical Storm Karl before driving it into mainland Mexico. Most of the models make it pretty strong; at least 55-60 knots. Only NOGAPS is unimpressed with it. -- SkyFury 18:15, September 13, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Karl
It's September. Has somewhat of a shot at hurricane intensity after the Yucatan. Strangely, this is the only time a storm named "Karl" formed anywhere but the deep tropics. Jake52 21:04, September 14, 2010 (UTC)


 * Again the NHC is upgrading from invest directly to a TS, the third or forth time in 2010 I think. --88.102.101.245 21:46, September 14, 2010 (UTC)
 * A slight slow-down in forward speed and it could easily become a hurricane, or even stall as GFS initially predicted. This could be bad for Veracruz, possibly even a re-Lorenzo. Some warm 29-31C waters in its path. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:12, September 14, 2010 (UTC)
 * I must say, I'm surprised it went straight to Karl. I kinda expected to be talking about Tropical Depression Thirteen right now. The last Karl, a rather impressive hurricane out where Igor and Julia are hanging out, formed two days later. We're ahead of 2004's pace. In fact, we're ahead of every pace since 1936 except for 1995 and 2005. It would appear those prognosticators we were mocking back in July are having the last laugh. -- SkyFury 05:37, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Landfall on the Yucatan. Karl was strengthening all the way until it hit land... a bit more water and it probably would have just made hurricane strength. But it's over land now, so it's wait and see time for how quickly it'll redevelop over the Gulf of Mexico. --Patteroast 17:56, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * It looks like Karl is heading for Tampico, but it isn't a big storm, and if it can hold together while crossing the Yucatan, things will not turn out so well for that area. It could explode in the Gulf. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:15, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Starting to develop an eye. This could be a cat. 2 at landfall, or a cat. 3 if it stalls significantly in the Gulf. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:56, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * WTF Karl? You start to organize OVER the Yucutan, and you get an eye, just hours preceding exit? What do you have for us next?! Make it good Karl, make it good. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 03:01, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * This is pretty much what Alex managed to do. --88.102.101.245 09:39, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * We are on the verge of having three simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes for the first time since 2005...and we barely had it then. This time, we could have three active for as long as two days. Julia's weakening fast though, Karl better get on with it. -- SkyFury 14:21, September 16, 2010 (UTC)

Hurricane Karl
Yikes. Upgraded and the advisory says "...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN STEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY." Hurricane warnings up. --Patteroast 15:34, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * <tt>IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.</tt> This is scary... Storm&#39;s Eye 15:39, September 16, 2010 (UTC)

I said below in the Retirements section, "if it explodes and turns out to be as bad as Charlie was for the area in 1951, yes." Does that prediction I made below have to come true? If it does, this will be the first time in Atlantic basin history that there were 3 successive category 4's in a single season. WOW. This storm is very small, but could be very potient. Stay tuned. This could be much worse than Alex was. Ryan1000 20:15, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * This storm is basically starting to take the exact same track as Marco 2008, but is already stronger and could yet rapidly intensify. Slight chance of a cat. 3 at landfall, but will not affect as large an area as Alex. It seems to be barreling toward the WSW, so if it stalls for a bit and goes on a more WNW turn, it could make a huge difference in terms of intensity. Remember the Tabasco floods in 2007? This could set up a pattern and cause something similar. This is also the first trio of three simultaneous hurricanes in a dozen years, and this didn't even happen in 2005. We are two storms behind 1995 at this point, but if Karl becomes a major, this will be the first time since 1961 that all three simultaneous hurricanes was a major at some point. SSTs a very warm 29.5C-30C in its future path, and the storm will have more access to warmer water and slightly more shallow water to aid in strengthening if it veers farther north. Watch for any signs of stalling. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:49, September 16, 2010 (UTC)

I don't know if it will stall, but Karl is one happy hurricane right now. It's in an oasis in the Bay of Campeche, and It has a potential to explode before landfall. The pressure is 977 mbars right now, a little low for a category 1 with 80 mph winds. If it does bomb in the bay and reach category 4 or 5 before landfall(which is somewhat unlikely), then this thing will be the worst hurricane ever known to hit the area. Stay tuned. This could be very bad. Ryan1000 00:07, September 17, 2010 (UTC)


 * Per RBT, Karl is now Cat 2 with 85 kts/971 hPa. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:55, September 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Forecast to be a Cat 3 at landfall. -88.102.101.245 05:27, September 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * This has gotten really ugly really fast. Karl is having a field day out there. Last time we had three consecutive major hurricanes: 2004...the last time this list was used. Same three letters. Unfortunately however, not the same three names. By my count, this is the ninth time in recorded history that three hurricanes have been active at once in the Atlantic. August 21-24, 1886 (there were four active on Aug. 23-24); August 17-22, 1893 (there were four active on Aug. 19 and 22); September 12-14, 1926; September 7-12, 1961 (there were nearly four active on the 12th. Betsy became extratropical less than twelve hours before Esther became a hurricane); September 8, 1980; August 30-31, 1995; September 23-27, 1998 (there were four active Sep. 25-26); September 8, 2005; and now September 16-17, 2010. -- SkyFury 06:56, September 17, 2010 (UTC)

Major hurricane Karl
And there it is. 105kn / 961 hPa. --88.102.101.245 09:00, September 17, 2010 (UTC)


 * And forcast to be cat 4 in about 12 hours. Wow. That would be the third consecutive cat 4 in a row, a first in history I guess. --88.102.101.245 09:07, September 17, 2010 (UTC)

Yes, it would be the first 3 consecutive category 4's in history, and If it hits the Gulf coast of Mexico as a 4, it will be the first category 4 hurricane to hit Mexico's Gulf coast since Hurricane Gilbert in 1988. Also, It will be the worst hurricane to hit this area in Mexico since Hurricane Charlie in 1951, which crashed into Tampico as a category 4, 135 mph winds. Also, the NHC says 140, not 135, for this storm. The only thing I can hope from Karl is those small pocket of nasty-ass winds spare Veracruz from a direct hit. Karl only has hurricane-force winds going out 25 miles from the center, so the slightest turn could make the difference betwwen catastrophic and lucky for Mexico. Stay tuned. This could get ugly! Ryan1000 11:36, September 17, 2010 (UTC)


 * And.... Karl has made landfall. For the record, this storm exploded faster than any storm on record in the Bay of Campeche, but unfortunately, the city of Veracruz did get a direct slamming from Karl near maximum intensity. This storm was getting ready to explode a lot further than where it got, at 120 mph. Had Karl not turned to the west-southwest like it did, it easily could have hit Mexico as a category 4 or even 5 storm right about now. It didn't reach cat. 4, but it did directly hit the largest port city in Mexico with 115 mph winds. Not only was it the first major hurricane on record to hit the city of Veracruz directly, but became the strongest hurricane on record in the Bay of Campeche, surpassing Hurricane Item in 1950. Karl was also the first major hurricane to hit Mexico's Gulf coast since Hurricane Emily in 2005, and the first major hurricane to make landfall as a major hurricane anywhere in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Ike in 2008. This thing is also the first major hurricane to hit the gulf coast of the Gulf of Mexico since Wilma in 2005. It wasn't as strong as it could've been, but it probrably couldn't have gotten any worse than it could've had been... I have a bad feeling Karl will have BIG damage and death numbers from Veracruz. This season is far from over; Karl is only storm number 11 in the 2010 AHS, and we have two months and two weeks until we can officially call it a season. Nor is it out of the question we could get two more category 4's to break the record of 5 in 1999 and 2005. Ryan1000 20:07, September 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Also, Karl is the only major hurricane ever recorded in the Bay of Campeche. It did miss the heart of Veracruz by a few miles or so to the north, but that's not enough to the extent of where it didn't do severe damage. Veracruz rarely sees direct hits from strong hurricanes because it is way too far south. Tropical storms do every once in a while come into the city; it happened 3 times in 2005, with Bret, Gert, and Jose, but all of those storms were weak and caused little damage. This storm was a category 3 at landfall. No major hurricane has ever directly affected the city of Veracruz... until now. It might take some time to get some official damage estimates out, but when they do come, i'm fearing they will be BIG. We didn't get so lucky with Karl. It's the first major hurricane to actually make landfall as a signifigant storm thus far in 2010, although Alex also caused quite some impact back in June/July, and was very close to becoming a major hurricane. Karl was our second bad storm thus far, and there could be plenty more from where this one came from, starting with Igor. I greatly fear what will be in store for us during the rest of this season. Ryan1000 00:09, September 18, 2010 (UTC)

Post-tropical Karl
Karl is gone. The impact in Veracruz was probrably extreme, and it isn't impossible that it's remnants could cross over and become Georgette. We will have to wait and see. Ryan1000 11:58, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * Eight people killed, six missing. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:49, September 19, 2010 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Just coming off of Africa, already invested and at medium risk on NHC. 30%. --Patteroast 12:53, September 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * This thing looked like a tropical cyclone immediately after emerging off the coast. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:15, September 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * 50% now, but thankfully, this storm should recurve further east than all the storms we have had this year. I still do expect this storm to be TS Karl/Julia though. After this, we still have 2 waves, and one or both of them could develop. Watch out guys, the CSU forecast might be coming true. :| <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:51, September 11, 2010 (UTC)
 * CSU forecast link please? <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 02:19, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * 90%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:43, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * "Near 100%". Or in other words, it'll be a depression at the next advisory time, unless it suddenly and unexpectedly falls apart. --Patteroast 13:37, September 12, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve
Yup, that was pretty fast. It hasn't even reached Cape Verde yet. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:47, September 12, 2010 (UTC)


 * Considering the way it seems to ran and considering the longer track Igor took this future Julia might cause some problems on the East Coast by steering Igor right onto the Carolinas or so. Or some other Fujiwhara stunt coud occur. --88.102.101.245 15:25, September 12, 2010 (UTC)


 * Igor IS doing a WSW wobble or drift, but this is likely only temporary. Julia, which we will likely see soon, could be a problem for the Azores while Igor hits Bermuda or maybe goes farther west. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:46, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * I rather fear that future Julia might void Igor's visum for Canada because she seems to be headed directly to the northwest while Igor has a much longer way WSW and then turning to the Northwest and North so until he is approaching Atlantic Canada Julia might be there already. It might end in some kind of Perfect Storm, I fear. --88.102.101.245 18:52, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * No. I just think that Julia will miss land and turn out to sea like Melissa did in late September 2007. It may become a hurricane, but I don't see it affecting land, by any means. I wouldn't be surprised if it does what Fred did last year, but it still won't affect land if it does that. Ryan1000 19:54, September 12, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julia
Hello, beautiful! -- SkyFury 03:01, September 13, 2010 (UTC)


 * And miss-never going to affect land. Oh, well. Might as well watch it anyways. Ryan1000 21:15, September 13, 2010 (UTC)

Hurricane Julia
Upgraded! --Patteroast 09:06, September 14, 2010 (UTC)
 * This forum even shows how much people care about you. Your brother: 99%, you 1%. Sorry Julia, wrong time. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 14:09, September 14, 2010 (UTC)
 * Cat. 2 -- SkyFury 02:43, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Speak for yourself, Atomic. I'm enjoying watching a hurricane that has just about no risk of impacting land. Igor's incredible, but it's headed straight for Bermuda... I'm wondering if we might have another Fabian. --Patteroast 03:08, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Patteroast, you are my hero. A powerful hurricane making landfall is an incredible thing to watch, but it's refreshing to watch one without the weight of people's ruined lives hanging on my shoulders. -- SkyFury 04:57, September 15, 2010 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Julia
Whoa! Special advisory, 125 knots! Wtf? Really? 125 and now forecast to become a Cat 4! Julia hardly looks like a major hurricane to me. Cloud tops are really cold but the eye looks like sh!t. If the new forecast verifies, Julia would be the fourth Cat. 4 in less than a month. Record for most Cat. 4 or greater storms in an entire season I believe is five from 1999. Wow. -- SkyFury 07:23, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Special advisory brings it to Cat 3 with a shot at Cat 4! What on Earth?!? Jake52 06:27, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * And now it IS a Category 4. Tell me, did ANY of the models give Julia this much strength. Jake52 08:55, September 15, 2010 (UTC)

Not at all. I am truly impressed with 2010. This year has 4 category 4 storms right now. Julia won't affect land, but man, she's a beauty, just like Danielle. This season just need's two more category 4's to shatter the two-way tie for 5 set in 1999 and 2005. Ryan1000 10:51, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Woah! No one expected this! I was expecting category 3, but not category 4! <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 14:35, September 15, 2010 (UTC)

No computer models or the NHC forecast anticipated this one coming. She won't affect land, but she is the easternmost category 4 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, reaching that intensity at 31.8 degrees west. One more cat. 4 and we will tie the all time record in 1999 and 2005, two more and we'll shatter the record, and if we keep getting them, this year could have a record or near-record high ACE. Ryan1000 19:56, September 15, 2010 (UTC)


 * Back down to category 3, and still won't affect land. 125 mph now, but still, this was quite a surprise. Ryan1000 22:13, September 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Huh? What's happening to Julia now? After rising up on a hot streak in intensity earlier today, she looks like a piece of sh!t right now. I can barely see her eye on sattelites. By the next advisory, it might not even be a hurricane, if not, a really weak one. As fast as Julia strengthened, colder waters are knocking her down just as rapidly. She might even dissipate by tomorrow! If so, she would be one of the shortest lived-- if not the shortest-lived category 4 in the history of the Atlantic basin. Ryan1000 00:18, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * I guess I could have predicted a rapid strengthening, as the eye was beginning to show last night and the Dvorak numbers were about to shoot up. But, Alas, I did not. This was a very unusual location for a cat. 4, but not surprising, and in the future we could get cat. 3/4 storms from the Azores to Portugal to the Mediterranean. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:59, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * All the way back to category one. --Patteroast 21:00, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * It may be weak now, but look at its structure. Its eye has re-appeared in the past few hours, and now its eye is huge compared to the rest of the storm, which is small. It looks half-extratropical, but it's also getting over warmer waters and will reach 29C SSTs by the time it's expected to weaken to a TS. It's in prime annular hurricane territory right now, with all the necessary SSTs, shear conditions and upper-level wind, and it's pretty close to Epsilon's infamous strengthening site. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:54, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * However Igor's outflow and shear is going to destroy her. --88.102.101.245 05:30, September 17, 2010 (UTC)

When Julia became a Cat. 4 on Wednesday, it was just the second time in recorded history that two hurricanes of at least Cat. 4 strength were active in the Atlantic at the same time. September 16, 1926 is the only other time this happened, and even then for just one six hour period (6Z). We'll see if that holds up in re-analysis. It wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't. Not one other time has this happened. Not 2005, not 2004, not 1999, not 1961, not 1950, maybe 1926...that's it. I must say, I'm totally amazed. I expected to find at least three other times that we've had simultaneous Cat. 4s. How about maybe one! Records go back 150 years; there isn't much that hasn't happened in the Atlantic. That is remarkable. Take a picture kids, you'll never see this ever again. -- SkyFury 18:03, September 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Probably worth mentioning that Julia's a tropical storm at this point, and dying rapidly from Igor's shear. Still, she gave us a pretty good show! --Patteroast 13:10, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * However it seems good Julia is much more robust than Igor thought he could get along with her. Still a tropical storm. --88.102.101.245 11:13, September 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * Final advisory. --Patteroast 15:25, September 20, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Way East of Bermuda
New little NHC blob in the subtropics. "DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY..." but at 10% nonetheless. --Patteroast
 * Asorbed by trough. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:46, September 12, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Lurking Near Cape Verde...
Models have been forecasting that something would develop off Cape Verde within days... NHC now is showing a 10% risk in that same area. --Patteroast 15:26, September 17, 2010 (UTC)


 * Up to 30% now. Here comes Lisa! <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 12:12, September 18, 2010 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Invest'd. --Patteroast 13:09, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * Up to 60% risk now. "CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS..." --Patteroast 06:07, September 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * 80%. "ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY..." --Patteroast 18:11, September 19, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Southern Lesser Antilles
GFS models have been consistently tracking this into the Caribbean, then developing it in the Northern Caribbean, making landfall on Cuba, Miami, Northwestern Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Cancun, etc. Some model runs stall this in the Gulf. CMC also predicts a storm with a similar track, but from another disturbance in the SW Caribbean. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:15, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * Yep, here is Matthew. Good old GFS. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 15:55, September 18, 2010 (UTC)

*Whoo*, if we get just two more storms in September, we will have the all-time record this year, surpassing the former record set in 2002/2007. And if they become cat. 4's then we will not only have 3 pairs of back-to-back category 4's, an all time Atlantic record, but we will also have 5 succesive majors, the first time since 1950, and 6 category 4's overall, also a new record. My oh my. This season just won't stop coming. Forget about what I said about us having a dead season back in July. We are just not stopping, not even with Karl. Wow. Ryan1000 23:41, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's still disorganized but may organize in only a few days. By the way, did I mention that almost the entire Caribbean is currently above 30C?! Yup, that's right, a rare occurence of having had no hurricanes at all in the Caribbean this season has built it up for a monstrous tropical explosion. The last time that there were no hurricanes as all in the Caribbean was in 2000. Most other years had the first Caribbean in the hurricane in mid-to-late-August, though in 2009 the only hurricane was in November, in 2005 and 2003 the first came in early-to-mid-July, and in 2001 the first hurricane occurred in early October. The 12z GFS calls for a landfall on Jamaica, then northern Cuba, followed by the Miami area, then South Carolina. Track forecasts have been inconsistent, but the formation of such a storm has been fully consistent for many days. This could be one of the most damaging storms of the season. We may see Nicole by October 1. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:09, September 19, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Offshore Tamaulipas
This is in the Western Gulf, formed as a result of convergence within the remnant outflow bands of Karl. Could have a chance for surprise development. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:15, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * This was on NHC for a while, but it's gone now. --Patteroast 06:08, September 19, 2010 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
So far, what are your Atlantic retirement predictions?


 * Alex 60% did quite a bit of damage.
 * Bonnie 0% Epic fail
 * Colin 0% Fish!
 * Danielle 2% Did minor effects on Bermuda i think
 * Earl 15% Minor effects
 * Fiona 0% Fish!

I won't do Gaston yet, since it could be bad... <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 18:26, September 5, 2010 (UTC)

Here is what I say


 * Alex 86%
 * Bonnie 1%
 * Colin 0%
 * Danielle 0%
 * Earl 19%
 * Fiona 0%

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:43, September 5, 2010 (UTC)

Mine!:


 * Alex: 70% - Hmmm...2 billion USD in damages, I don't see why, but to be on the safe side, I'll stick with a 7/10 chance.


 * Bonnie: 5% - What a fail


 * Colin: 2% - What a huge fail


 * Danielle: 10% - Very unlikely


 * Earl: 25% - Not much damage


 * Fiona: 4% - Overshadowed by her big brother Earl.
 * Gaston: 0% - What a very, very huge fail
 * Hermine: 35% - I really don't expect this storm to be retired, as if Texas hasn't seen this before.

I usually consider myself a conservative, btw. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:02, September 5, 2010 (UTC)

Mine:


 * Alex - 85-100% - Forget what I said earlier, I was wrong. Alex did much worse than what Dolly did, in Mexico, not the U.S. and it will probrably be retired.


 * Bonnie - 0% - A little damage, but no, it won't be retired.


 * Colin - 0% - EPIC FAIL. That's all I can say.


 * Danielle - 0% - A strong and elegant storm, but it failed to do signifigant damage; I don't see it being retired.


 * Earl - 10% - It wasn't so bad for the Carribean and I don't think Canada will submit this one; Juan was much, much worse.


 * Fiona - 0% - see Colin.


 * Gaston - 0% - It tried, but it's yet another fail.


 * Hermine - 15% - Ah, damage wasn't that bad, even Fay was worse than this thing.
 * Igor - 5% - Igor wasn't as bad for Bermuda as I was fearing, but this number won't be definite until I get some real numbers out. I'm not expecting them to be that bad, though.
 * Julia - 0% - Beautiful hurricane, but because she didn't affect land, no.
 * Karl - 85-100% - Whoa, I had no idea Karl was this bad. 8 people dead and a billion dollars in damage to the Veracruz area. Alex was worse, but still, knowing that Karl is the first signifigant storm to affect this area, and the fact they've never seen something like him, he seems just about as likely as Alex.

Ryan1000 15:14, September 6, 2010 (UTC)


 * Alex - 75% - Wow, I had no idea Alex was this destructive. As many as 73 dead on top of nearly $2 billion in damage in Mexico? That is definite cause for consideration. Look at Diana in 1990. Damage, casualities (and, ironically, landfall intensity) are nearly identical.


 * Bonnie - 1% - Here and after referred to as a rainy afternoon. Keeping with my custom, I never give a storm that directly affected land a 0% chance.


 * Colin - 0% - It tried.


 * Danielle - 1% - Gets points for style and getting a party started. Just how much of a party has yet to be determined.


 * Earl - 10% - Scared the piss out of us but was fortunately just an attention getter.


 * Fiona - 0% - Coming on the heels of a big hurricane isn't so great. It's sort of like hanging out with a rockstar: It's cool, but guess who gets all the love.


 * Gaston - 0% - I'm still completely vexed by this one. The sky was the limit for Gaston and it just vanished. A little dry air and a little easterly shear and it was gone. Nobody called this. The models didn't call it, NHC didn't call it, I certainly didn't call it. Just goes to show you that the only thing you can expect from the tropics is the unexpected.


 * Hermine - 15% - Those floods got pretty ugly down in Texas and into Oklahoma, but fortunately we avoided a repeat of Tropical Storm Erin three years ago.


 * To be continued


 * SkyFury 06:23, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

To tell the truth, I don't really understand why everyone thinks Alex will be retired. Eric, Diana was retired, but Gert 3 years later wasn't, for a similar damage and death toll, too. Alex hit only 80-90 or so miles south of where Dolly did two years ago. Dolly topped the billion-dollar mark and killed several people and wasn't retired, so I don't see why this storm should be retired. It's impacts were pretty much the same as Dolly's were, if not a little worse. Alex doesn't grab my interest enough for me to give it retirement. When Dolly wasn't retired two years ago, it taught us all a lesson-- the billion dollar mark doesn't get the boot from now on. 450 or so million in difference isn't gonna make the difference of a storm being or not being retired. Alex doesn't grab my attention enough to be retired, but Igor, our new Atlantic storm, very well may. Time will tell for sure. Ryan1000 20:46, September 8, 2010 (UTC)


 * I have had enough. I really don't care what grabs your attention, and I'm sure not a whole lot of people do here. Can you please keep it to yourself, its getting annoying. And Dolly made landfall in the US and the damage was agricultural, Alex was destructive. 30 inches of rain in Mexico, severe floods, I mean, it deserves to be retired. And it was a whole lot worse than Dolly. So please, don't make judgements on so little information. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:28, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

What, is that why Barbara didn't, but Alma did? (sorry for going to the EPac), but damage is damage, Darren. Dolly's 1.35 billion compared to Alex's 1.885 billion-- it isn't a huge difference. I'm not meaning to offend you, Darren; i'm just saying that the facts are Alex only caused 530 million more damage than Dolly. I don't consider 530 million a big difference now. If this was the 1990's or 80's, then it certainly would make the difference between being and not being retired. But now, in 2010, it doesn't make the difference IMO. I am just enraged over the fact that it has to matter where that 1 billion or 500 deaths comes from to earn retirement. Deaths are deaths, and damage is damage. I am still fearing something's coming to the U.S.-- but Alex wasn't my big fear. I initially thought it would be when it was forecast to wreck Brownsville as a cat. 4 or so, but that ridge had to strengthen at the last minute. Igor is the next big storm I'm watching out for. We will get something worse than Alex this year. I have a bad feeling about that. Darren, September is far from over, and October and November are yet to come. I highly doubt Alex will be the worst storm in this entire year. The rest of this season will not turn out to be a bust. We have started on a hot streak in the Atlantic, and it's just not stopping with Igor. Ryan1000 23:20, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

Alex: 50%. A sizeable death toll and decent damage. Either of these usually isn't enough, but both together may do the trick. Bonnie: 2%. This formed in just the right area to make everyone sweat, but outside of a death, that's it. Colin: 1%. Unlike Bonnie, the death really IS it. Danielle: 0%. Beauty doesn't earn retirement. Earl: 20%. Although the damage seems low on paper, it IS damage on islands, so the damage may mean a bit more. Fiona: 1%. Colin 2.0. Gaston: At this point, it's looking like a 0%, but it could change. Hermine: 10%. Nowhere near Allison level bad, but damage may be the deciding factor. Igor: ??%. Still active. Jake52 08:19, September 9, 2010 (UTC)


 * Ryan, for the record, Gert of '93 was one of the more substantial snubs in Atlantic history (along with Bret earlier that year). And with epic floods spreading across Texas and other parts of the southern Plains, how's your 0% chance for Hermine looking now? I have to agree with you though in that as the storms have gotten worse, the standards for retirement have gotten higher (and better defined). -- SkyFury 14:10, September 9, 2010 (UTC)

There is no damage report avaliable for Hermine, Eric, but I wouldn't expect it to be any worse than Erin or Fay at the most. If Hermine does manage to put up Allison-like numbers, then I'm changing my predictions to 95-100%. It depends... for the time being, I will put ?? for Hermine and Igor. The WMO's rule on retirement is they retire a storm if it caused a big enough impact on society as a whole. I personally don't give a sh!t about the damage caused because one or two decades later, all of that damage will be rebuilt and no one will remember what would have happened. Loss of life should matter the most. The damage will be rebuilt, but the lives can't be. Gert and Diana were not epic storms for Mexico, Eric. They have seen much, much worse than that. Eric, the best example of an epic snub is 1985's Juan. 1.5 billion in damage, largely structural, and not retired? It still puzzles me today as to why that didn't happen, but it would be retired after 2003's Hurricane Juan anyways. The "monster storm" of 2010 is waiting... as am I.Ryan1000 21:12, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Juan wasn't the only case like that from 1985: Isabel could have also gotten retired. 180 deaths and about $450 million (the deaths alone could call for retirement. Felix did less and that was in 07) yet it wasn't and the name, like Juan, was next used in 2003, where it was retired. Jake52 21:59, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well hell, Ryan, both the US and Cuba have seen a helluva lot worse than Gustav. Do you have any problems with that retirement? Didn't think so. A storm doesn't have to be epic to get retired. Gert and Diana both caused widespread devastation as worthy of retirement as Juan. And I agree, deaths should be weighed more heavily than damage (although I think you'd give a sh!t about the damage if it was your house that was a pile of rubble and you'd just lost everything you'd ever owned). Diana killed 195 people, all of them in Mexico; that doesn't qualify as epic? Pray tell, what does? Juan killed 24. Diana wins even with any US-biased, Third-World-Sucks handicap that I know you're gonna throw out. Diana's name now rightfully hangs in the rafters. Gert killed 85 and caused more monetary damage than Diana officially did. Juan was a snub, but no more epic than Gert. Bret that same year was an even bigger snub. But you want to talk about an epic snub. Gordon, 1994. Period. 1,145 dead. That one is truly shocking. That was the one that erased any and all respect I may have had for the WMO. Unbelievable. Jake, the 180 in Isabel came from a landslide in Puerto Rico caused by the precursor disturbance. Isabel did very little damage while a tropical cyclone. -- SkyFury 23:22, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * No problem. Learn something new every day. Of course, when I saw the discussion about snubs, I was wondering when Gordon was coming up. Just wondering, Sky, but while on that year (1994), do you think Alberto was a snub, or was there a reason that it wasn't retired? Jake52 23:57, September 9, 2010 (UTC)

Here are my retirement numbers: (An asterick* indicates estimates based on future predictions of the storm.) 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:20, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex - 52% - This storm caused more direct and total deaths and caused more damage than Emily and Dolly, which were both close to getting retired.
 * Bonnie - 3% - Some minor flooding in the Dominical Republic and Haiti, passed over Miami, and the Gulf oil spill.
 * Colin - 1% - Born, died, reborn, killed one person from a rip current, passed near Bermuda, but almost no impact.
 * Danielle - 1% - Long-lived cat. 4, one death, but no tropical land impact.
 * Earl - 19% - Put the entire island of Antigua in the dark, one death in Canada and three in the US, but none in the Caribbean and minimal total damage despite an East Coast track.
 * Fiona - 1% - Cape Verde storm, no deaths and minimal impact, absorbed by Earl.
 * Gaston - 11%* - Existed as a Cape Verde storm briefly, degenerated, almost regenerated but now has a chance of re-forming in the Gulf.
 * Hermine - 5% - At least three killed and unknown damage, but could stand a chance if it causes massive flooding and tornado damage over Texas inland.
 * Igor - 10%* - Cape Verde storm that stalled, weakened and could turn into a major hurricane, but only a slight chance of directly impacting land as a significant hurricane.
 * Jake, storms like Alberto are tough. Alberto was a localized severe flood event. Amelia in 1978 was very similar. While the impact was severe, most of it took place over a relatively small area after the storm had moved inland. Also, there's a lot of bias against tropical storms (see Bret '93). It took a disaster on the scale of Allison...in a first-world country...for people to finally accept that weaker storms should be treated with the same respect as hurricanes. For a long time, the popular conception was that a weak storm couldn't be that severe unless somebody screwed up, be it warnings officals or emergency managers. This grossly unfair attitude was probably the principal culprit in the Gordon snub. -- SkyFury 06:15, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * In bot the EPAC and AT the storms that have the best chance of being retired are Alex, Agatha, and Frank. Frank appear's the least likely as more costly storms such as Norbert got retired. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:09, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * And the Hanna snub too, Eric. I guess retirements can be just as random in the Atlantic as they can be in the Pacific, at least with storms that do hundreds of millions in damage. Also, YE, Norbert did not become retired, despite it's damage in Mexico. Back in the old days, not long after retirement was beginning, it wasn't so strict at first. Juan became destructive in 1985, as did Isabel and Kate, but none got retired. Also, Eric, you(and I) still wonder why 1955's Hilda didn't get the boot. 300 deaths and millions in damage, but not retired? Had it been, 1955 not only would have been the first season on record to have 5 retired names, tying 2005, but would have also been the first one ever to have 3 successive retired names:Hilda, Ione, and Janet. It almost happened in 2008 with Gustav, Hanna, and Ike, but thanks to the snub on Hanna, it wasn't kicked out. It also could have happened in 1985 with Isabel, Juan, and Kate, but none of them got retired. As I mentioned before, If a storm does heavy damage, but is localized, tornado-like damage(exclude Charley), then It probrably won't get the boot. If a storm causes widespread impact, like Ivan or Dean, then their chances rise much more because so many countries could request it. Out of the Blue, France requested Noel. It surprised me that France did it for that storm, as Cuba, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Canada all could have requested that storm. There was no reason for France to step in; I mean they didn't suffer anything, nor their territories; Martinique got only a slight rain shower from Noel's precursor wave, Klaus was more ravenous for the island. I can't tell what will be gone this year as of now, unless we get big damage numbers, like Ike or Gustav. This season is only peaking right now; it is far from over. Ryan1000 20:40, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * And Eric, I hope you're understanding where i'm coming from here. I would give a sh!t if I lost my home and all of my possesions, but if I don't lose my life after a hurricane makes landfall, that's all that matters the most to me. As long as I'm prepared and I don't die during a hurricane, I'm okay with losing my house. It will be rebuilt one day; however, the memories of my lost home will not be long forgotten. I mean, if a category 5 hurricane was raging towards Mobile, Alabama right now, what would you prefer-- your home or your life? I hope you say your life-- that's what anyone on the Gulf and east coasts would probrably say right now. Ryan1000 00:01, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * Indeed, Hanna was a snub. I know exactly of what you speak. 1955 was an incredible year. Hilda definately should've been retired but I think information about just how extensive the damage was was slow to come out. I think this was the reason for that snub. I'm going to have to disagree with you on 1985, however. Kate was rightfully not retired. Juan should've been. Isabel I think was actually a good call. That disastrous flooding in Puerto Rico was caused by the precursor disturbance. And yes I do understand where you're coming from but I think the way you put it was a little terse. That's all. -- SkyFury 18:27, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * So no damage was avaliable at the time of the meeting for Hilda? Argh, who gives a damn about the damage? 300 deaths in Belize and Mexico? That's the deadliest Atlantic hit in that area since 1931 at least. That's more than bad enough to get the boot. Also, I said it could've, not should've happened with Juan, Isabel, and Kate in 1985. I personally think Kate probrably had a decent shot of getting it in 1985; 700 million in damage was quite a bit back in 1985, but since most of that was structural damage to northern Cuba, which has seen much worse than Kate, It wasn't so surprising. Isabel was somewhat surprising, too. Eloise was retired a decade prior to Isabel and it caused similar damages and flooding to Puerto Rico, but I think it was called off the list due to it's damage in Panama City, Florida, instead. As for this year, I can't be entirely certain as to whether Alex will get it; Mexico has seen much, much worse than Alex, like Pauline and the Mexico Hurricane of 1959. Not every hurricane that hits the area Alex did will be obvious, unless if it's something like the 1909 Monterrey Hurricane. It was the deadliest hurricane in Mexico's history, killing over 4,000 people. I can't give Alex a huge shot, but it could be retired nontheless. I'll have to wait to be sure. Ryan1000 21:29, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * And Eric, about Gordon, I don't think the WMO retired it just because it was weak. The first example of a retired Atlantic storm that doesn't have to be strong to be nasty was Hurricane Agnes in 1972. The only U.S. landfalling hurricane of that year, Agnes was a very weak storm, but it killed over 120 people and caused over 2 billion dollars in U.S. damage, largely due to flodding in Pensylvania and New York. At the time, it was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, and the only category one to be retired up until then. Agnes should have set a prescedent for weak storms post-1972, but apparantly, it didn't, at least as Gordon showed us. Eric, I agree Gordon is the best example of an epic snub. I mean, Noel got it in 2007, for less than 1/7 of Gordon's toll, and it caused most of those deaths in the same area Gordon did. I have little if any respect after the Hanna snub 2 years ago, and I don't want it to happen ever again. That was pretty much the last straw I have for them. Ryan1000 01:40, September 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * By the way, does anyone on the wikia want to update their retirement predictions? Knowing what Karl did to Veracruz, I think some of you here would want to give him a shot of getting it. Does anyone really care about this section in the forum? Or is everyone else waiting until 2010 ends? I also changed my predictions for Alex, BTW. I think it will have a shot at getting it. Dolly hit the U.S, and Alex hit Mexico. I am upset over the fact that both hurricanes weren't that far apart, but I think Mexico has a better chance of requesting Alex than we would have for Dolly. What I said earlier wasn't quite appropriate about Alex, but now I changed my mind, it should get it. Ryan1000 20:20, September 20, 2010 (UTC)

Dead basin thing
I don't have a clue why all of you are like, "Why are there so many duds?". While doing a classification of hurricane tracks, I noticed on all seasons that had a timeline, they all started booming up near early or mid August. It seems like what happens is, a few storms pop up... then it starts going in August till September... Then slows down in October... And dwindles off by November. Maybe it was because Alex was a cat 2 (which made Bonnie and Colin seem like duds), and because the EPac started booming earlier and then abruptly stopped. I don't know, and I really would like to. Atomic7732 01:41, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * The only year I can remember where people weren't saying things were dead over and over was 2005 in the Atlantic. It doesn't seem like it can be helped. --Patteroast 02:16, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Lol hahaha! I see. Atomic7732 02:39, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * La Nina seasons are usually late activity starters, actually, I am not at all surprised we still at Colin. The surprising thing about Colin is that it formed during Downward MJO, so if storms can form during that, what would this season bring? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 03:51, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * La Nina can be fickle. Most active years start kicking it up a notch right about now. 2004's Charley formed August 10 so we did get to the 'C' storm first but our 'C' is gonna be a lot less interesting than Charley. In the last La Nina (2008), we'd had five storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane by this point in the season, including Dolly, which hit south Texas as a Cat 2 on July 23. I still think this season's total is gonna be on the low end of the official forecast. Ever since Alex, the worldwide tropics have been quiet as a graveyard. I've never seen the West Pacific as dead as it's been, but they did pretty much have all the fun in July with two 75 kt typhoons. As I've said before, the epic silence in the Pacific does not bode well for the Atlantic. -- SkyFury 05:55, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * I'm very surprised we've only had 3 storms in the WPac. The EPac has been the most active NHEM basin this year! I have a feeling this years Atlantic is gonna be as weird, if not weirder than 2009's. Atomic7732 06:08, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Colin is a dud like ever other storms since Alex. Rick on the other hand, is probably the best example of an epcic win. Extremely cold cloud tops, eye in a perfect circle, perfectly symmetrical, perfectly round, outflow even and extremely impressive on all quadrants. i agree,d with 78 the active cycle has ended or ending. But again, this is the time of year we get active, about one year ago the EPAC exploded. Storms just formed one after another after another. The ALT got active on August 15. YE 14:03, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think people are calling this basin dead because we were expecting a 2005-type season. Well, this year, we are probably still gonna get the predicted numbers, like CSU's 18 and NOAA's average of 17. We should see a bunch of storms in a few weeks because as I said earlier, we are currently in downward MJO. EPAC is currently upward, and thats probably why you saw Estelle. The point is, just because this basin has been average so far, doesn't mean its dead at all. Remember, 16 storms is normal for EPAC, so don't also think EPAC will have an above average season (last year was near normal, to give you some prespective). One more thing, the chances for a below normal season in ATL is 0% according to TSR and NOAA. There is about a 90% chance of an active season, and the predicted ACE numbers are leaning towards a hyperactive season, so don't count ATL out yet. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:28, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Actually, last year's PHS was above normal (13.4 vs. 17, 3, vs. 6). Stop this, is it not going to be a hyperactive season, period, just 11 named storms. YE 20:39, August 7, 2010 (UTC)


 * 1- This states that last year was near normal. #2- I never said it was, I just said forecasters are leaning towards it. #3- Most, if not all indications lead to an above normal season, and as I said, its just early August. I'm just trying to make sure people don't get their guard down. I will be happy if this season will not be destructive, but claiming that this season will be a bust with all the evidence presented is outrageous. I'm not saying its not possible that this season will be a bust, but I'm just trying to put some sense into some people who claim this basin is dead. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:14, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * 1. It depends which average you use. 2. Ok 3. we just slightly below average so thats why i predcit 11 named storms. BTW, the EPAC will be similar (maybe identical) to 2004. YE

Re to #1- Um, ok, but that was a credible and direct source which disagrees whith you, and would you please give me a link to your average? Re to #2- [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/tws/MIATWSAT_jul.shtml? Please check all your facts]. And 1 more thing, 2004 was El Nino, and is not a good analogue, and coincidences do happen. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:59, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, it is in the EPAC book which could be downloaded here. it gives both averages 1971-2006 and 1949-2006. I like to use the 1949 one. Actually, many people are comparing this year to 2004 in both basins. YE 23:20, August 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * 2 people does not count as many BTW :P Also, both can be used, but the latest one is always better because it is the most accurate total average.
 * The only reason I'm thinking the basins are dead is, the atlantic has had no interest since Alex - and it's August. The Eastern Pacific has had their hot streak in June with the record highest ACE for that month, but followed that up by being the first season in 44 years with no tropical storms in July, and Estelle isn't so interesting either. The West Pacific had only THREE named storms so far - 2009 was much worse at this time of their year. I don't think that this season is dead, but worldwide, this season is actually less active than, say last year. The East Pacific is two storms ahead of the West Pacific (I only count JMA named storms), and the Atlantic ties the basin as of now.At this rate August won't look any different than July, and I just don't see anything forming in the basins in the next week or so, and I don't give that newly - named West Pacific PAGASA named storm much of a chance either. What I mentined last year was probrably right, we are in another deadened basin period like 1977 was. I'm actually shocked, at this time. I just can't look forward to NOAA's predictions coming true, this year isn't anywhere close to active - 2009 was well ahead of this, exept in the Atlantic. However, I can't assume I'll be right on this dead streak here. 2004 and 1988 didn't start until August and everyone knows how well they went. Even if we aren't active, it doesn't mean we won't be notable. 1992, 1983, and 1930 were three of the least active, yet most notable, atlantic seasons on record. It took just Hurricane Andrew to turn 1992 from a season of nothing to a season of something. 1983 was the 4th or 3rd least active season on record (excluding ties), but Hurricane Alicia made the billion $ mark in Texas, and still remains the most recent major hurricane to hit Galveston/Houston, Although Hurricane Ike certainly had the impacts of one, and for a season with just two storms (1930), the Dominican Republic hurricane really made 1930 a notable season. I guess a saying that should be considered in the Atlantic is: don't judge June or July, judge the peak of the season, okaye?. Ryan1000 02:21, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, worldwide, this is gonna be a down year, but that's because the Pacific usually accounts for the bulk of the activity. As far as the Atlantic is concerned, this season so far is actually reminding me a bit of 2007: a lot of snub storms but when they do intensify, look out. That's kind of what I'm expecting to see, with maybe a couple of Cat 2s sprinkled in. It's still too early to rule out the official forecast verifying. 1999 had five Cat 4s, the first of which wasn't named until August 19. 1985, which saw six hurricanes make landfall in the US, didn't get to the 'C' storm until August 11. That said, the ATL, with apologies to 93L, doesn't exactly seem primed to explode. The next two weeks will give us a good indication of what kind of season we're looking at. If it doesn't get noticably livelier out there by August 20, I think it'll be extremely unlikely that this season exceeds 12 storms, 4 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. And remember what Andrew taught us: it only takes one bad hurricane to make it a bad season. 1992 had just six storms, but one caused over $20 billion in damage. -- SkyFury 08:15, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Sky, I was sorta expecting a 2007 AHS-type year as well. I know what got us Estelle in the EPAC an anticyclone, and whats been shearing all the invests there is a trough. That trough is staring to lift, so we can get some storms. Last year around, this time the EPAC literally exploded. YE 13:39, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I agree with you, SkyFury. We must wait until the heart of the season comes until we draw conclusions. If the next three or four weeks go dormant, by then i'm gonna be thinking there's something wrong with the tropics. That's not so likely, but if it does happen, then we are on a dead streak season. Only time will tell for the season. We shouldn't continue this discussion until we don't get any storms for some time. By then, we can pull up some record-dead records for the season, both here and worldwide. Ryan1000 15:50, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * West Pacific now has had five named storms and eleven depressions. The longer that a basin holds without any activity, the more that its waters will heat up. I expect a surge in activity in the Western Hemisphere around mid-to-late August. Some forecasts are predicting a strong La Nina lower than -3.0C, which would make it like 1998 in terms of the rapid fall from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina. Upward MJO could also get into the Atlantic in a few weeks. Here are my own revised predictions for Northern Hemisphere seasons this year:


 * West Pacific: 42 depressions, 25 named storms, 14 typhoons, 7 "major" typhoons, 1 cat. 5, $6 billion in damage.
 * Central Pacific: 2 depressions, 1 named storm, 1 hurricane, no major hurricanes, no damage.
 * East Pacific: 17 depressions, 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, 2 cat. 5s, $4 billion in damage.
 * Atlantic: 19 depressions, 15 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes, 2 cat. 5s, $60 billion in damage.
 * North Indian: 11 depressions, 5 named storms, 3 hurricane-strength severe cyclonic storms, 2 "major"-strength very severe cyclonic storms, no cat. 5, $3 billion in damage.


 * 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:43, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Speaking of predictions... I'll make mine for the Atlantic now...
 * 15 storms (TD's included), 9 hurricanes, 3 major. I haven't predicted much, so it just my guess. Atomic7732 21:23, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Considering how weve only had 3 deps so far i think 11 deps in total for the NIO wont happen. However if youre NS prediction came true it would be the most active season in terms of NS since names were introduced, and the most amount of NS since 2000.JasonRees 00:58, August 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * I will hold off on making my final predictions for this season until the end of August. This has been the slowest start in the West Pacific since 1998, when the first named storm didn't form until July 8 and the first typhoon didn't form until August 3 (I'm pretty sure that's a record). If you remember, the Atlantic wasn't so quiet that year. When the Pacific is quiet, 9 times out of 10, the Atlantic is active and usually destructive. In 1998, Georges killed 600 people and Mitch killed over 18,000 and was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since the Revolutionary War. -- SkyFury 04:03, August 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * I believe we can't really assume anything about us being so quiet right now; that 1008 mbar low in the Keys looks pretty ominous to me. I would think that the AHS will have 13 storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 majors, with zero or one category 5(s), only slightly above average. About damages? 60 billion seems a little too high for an AHS, Astro. At best I would think that the AHS would have 20 to 30 billion in damage, but it's very hard for a season to make over 40 billion in damage alone, and only 2004, 2005, and 2008 have done that. I do think this season will be destructive to some extent, but not "over 60 billion dollars" destructive. I think we should keep an eye on that Gulf low, however. Ryan1000 16:34, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ok, I have raised my ALT prediction to 12-6-3. However, i don think we will see many catastrophic storms this year, though we might have an Ida-type storm or two this year. However, I think the damages will be under $10 billion ( know people on WU call me wishcasters and downcasters for this, but I have a good accuracy). YE
 * Ok, I have raised my ALT prediction to 12-6-3. However, i don think we will see many catastrophic storms this year, though we might have an Ida-type storm or two this year. However, I think the damages will be under $10 billion ( know people on WU call me wishcasters and downcasters for this, but I have a good accuracy). YE

I do believe that ATL will eventually become more active, and here are my predictions for the basins (NS-Cane-MH-C5): And YE, I think there is a good reason they call you that. I am not saying that is 100% impossible, but a near normal/below normal season forecast is wishful thinking and not backed by current evidence, hence thats why they call you that. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:51, August 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * WPAC: 22-12-6-1
 * EPAC: 13-6-4-1
 * ATL: 16-8-4-0


 * Then why are all the storms these year since Alex have been epic fails. YE 17:12, August 10, 2010 (UTC)

Like I said, YE, don't judge June or July, judge the peak of the season, okaye? June/July aren't supposed to be active; 2002 only had 12 total storms, 8 of which were in September. 2004 had 15 storms, 8 of them in August. Give the basin time. It'll get rollin' at some point. It slowly rises from June to July, skyrockets in August, peaks at september 10, then downturns in October; there is a brief secondary peak by October 19 when the East Pacific monsoon trough extends into the Carribean, and lastly, slows down to the end of November. I think this season will be somewhat destructive, but nowhere close to 2008, even. Just be patient, everyone; this season will get rolling by late August into September. Now is not the time to let up, but NOAA's predictions aren't looking so true, I agree. Ryan1000 23:48, August 10, 2010 (UTC)


 * GFS is forecasting something nasty to come off Africa in five days. Multiple models also forecast something to form in the northern Gulf around the 4-5 day mark. -- SkyFury 06:36, August 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * Guess what, 91E has died. Another epic fail. YE 12:49, August 13, 2010 (UTC)


 * Does anyone else think that the silence in the Atlantic is getting rather ominous? All the models whose long range forecast I have access to develop something big off Africa in 3-4 days (although GFS and NOGAPS appear to take it out to sea). They also all develop something out of the remnants of TD 5 in the northern Gulf in about 2-3 days. Things may be about to get a little interesting. -- SkyFury 06:16, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * I have seen the GFS predicting two fishes next week. However, I have a felling they are going to epic fails an get torn apart by upper-level low. I also cant see ex-Five regenerating in the Gulf. YE 14:23, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Don't count your epic fails before they hatch. The entire Northern Hemisphere is quiet and since most of the heat is focused on the Atlantic, when the MJO gets back here we can expect an absolute explosion of activity. The second storm on GFS doesn't look like a fail, in fact it might even head into the Carolinas or New England and end up like a Hugo or a Floyd. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:04, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think that silence is rather ominous to me, but after all of the epic fails we've had (Bonnie, Colin, and #5), I just can't see this season producing a monster storm like Andrew or Hugo. The conditions in the open tropical Atlantic are no different, or not a lot different, than when Colin was out there now. From all of the deadened activity weve had so far, I don't see anything big going on out there, or coming out there. We're halfway through August and the tropics still look like a wasteland. I don't think we'll pull a 1992 or 1988; this season will be a dead one, just like it was last year. Ryan1000 17:31, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * I still think ATL will be active and will produce ~15 storms because it is La Nina. People are saying that this season is a bust because they think that ATL has been below average. Well, guess what, it is very near average. And Ryan, last year was a strong El Nino, and this year is a La Nina, and has a potential for a very strong La Nina. The basin is not dead yet, and anything is possible. This season has the capabilities of potentially producing an extremely dangerous hurricane, it just takes conditions to align right. Do not let your guard down, and if some Cape-Verde type Major Hurricanes come along, well, that would be no surprise. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 18:04, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Daren, no. In fact, I am not 100% convinced that there is a a La Nina. we are below the 1995-20009 average of 14 named storms. Again, we will end up being 12-6-3 IMO, and I think my prediction is generous. But again the activity cycle is ending. You might want to check out my blog and do not call me crazy, I disagree with experts 100%. It should be noted that there is a similar dissipation at Strom2k. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:04, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Then please see the definition of La Nina, and all 4 Nino regions indicate La Nina. And No, we are at average. The Average is 11-6-2 per last year's TWS.. And what evidence do you have? Give me credible expert evidence, as no offence, clearly, you are not an expert. If you disagree with experts, then you better have a very, very good argument against the expert consensus. I'm sorry, but what your're saying cannot be taken with credit. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:57, August 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, clam down. All I am saying is the IMO we are in a weak El Nino. i have the right to my opinon. But again, SST's suggest otherwise saying that there is a weak to moderate La Nina. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:21, August 15, 2010 (UTC)

YE, it's hard enough for guys with doctorates to figure out ENSO. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you're somewhat short of a doctorate in meteorology. I often disagree with season predictions but when it comes to ENSO, I defer to the experts. Ryan, for the record, there were only six storms in 1992 (seven if you count STS 1) and only one major hurricane. That one major hurricane just happened to cause $26 bil in damage. While I don't think this will be a "dead year," I do think 18 storms is a little aggressive. Forecasters have warned that synoptic scale patterns look like they could be about to change with a more stable Azores High providing a lower-shear environment over the open Atlantic. -- SkyFury 05:00, August 16, 2010 (UTC)


 * I still think this season will be less active than what it was forecast; even 15 storms seems a little nasty for the AHS now. I still think it will be 12-6-3, but as you mentioned, Sky, it just takes only one bad storm to make it a bad season. Activity and notability have no direct correlation, exept in a few years like 2005. 1887 was one of the most active seasons on record, but there were hardly any signifigant storms in that season. And 1992 was one of the least active seasons, but one of the most notable, too. All in all, I do think this will be a slightly above average, though less than forecast, season, but I completly agree with the fact that it just takes one bad storm to make a season memorable for a long time to come. TD 5 looks like it wants to make a comeback, but I highly doubt it will turn into a monster for the gulf coast; category 1 or 2 is what I would call "exeptional" for that storm. It's August 16, and we still haven't had any ominous areas of development in the Atlantic, let alone the rest of the northern hemisphere. In short, this season will probrably not get to 20 storms, but still can produce at least one bad storm. We should wait for another 2 or 3 weeks until we really come into the heart of the season. By then, we could have some trouble out there. It wouldn't surprise me if we get one or two more August storms, but the most active August on record was 2004, with 8 storms in that year's August. We will NOT get 7 more named storms in the last two weeks in this August. 2002 and 2007 tie for the most active September, but all of the September storms in '07 were short-lived epic fails, exept for Felix.(Humberto, and Lorenzo weren't very signifigant other than the fact of how fast they boomed up). I can't assume this September could tie 2002 and 2007, but it will not have enough storms to catch up to 2005. We can still get just one bad storm this year, but we won't have a 2005-like season. My only fear for this season is we will have an inactive season for the most part, so people on the Gulf and east coasts will let their guard down, but then we get just one bad storm that catches them off guard and causes a great number of damages and deaths. I hope no bad storms form during this season; I mean, no one wants a bad storm to come, but I fear there will be something coming. Only time will tell what will happen this year.And by the way, Darren, not all La Nina events signify a bad season. 2007 was a La Nina, but it wasn't that bad of a season; the following year was far more destructive and deadly. 1973 was also a La Nina, but it wasn't much of a season in the Atlantic. We probrably will heat up by September, but we are coming to the end of the 1995-now hot streak in the Atlantic. When this active period ends, the Pacific will start rollin' for some time. Ryan1000 14:47, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * The question is when will the activity cycle end? As side note, the SST in the EPAC are expected be a little cooler in the ATL so expect 10 2009 type years. Here is my basin prediction

ATL 12-6-3-0

EPAC 12-6-4-1

WPAC 25-10-6-3

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:24, August 16, 2010 (UTC)


 * Yes, 2007 was La Nina, and yes, it was below average. But 2004 is El Nino, but was hyperactive. It is true that La Nina conditions don't guarantee an active season. And about the 2005 thing, when did experts say that? No one was expecting a 2005-type season, and it is impossible as 2005 had absolute perfect conditions. But, they did and still do predict an active season, and if you think that you can just disagree with their statements and say "I think this season will be a bust" is absolutely wrong (I'm not talking about you Ryan, I'm talking to anyone who has said this statement). They went to college studying this, and I expect most of us here did not. Yes, some forecasts have been way off, but stating that these will is just absurd. You don't now that. I know for a fact that people in the meteorological society have been angry at the people bustcasters right now. The public were angry at them for "scaring them" because of the ominous forecast, but the real dangers are the people who spread news that this season will be a bust. So I do suggest that this topic should stop, and we should wait until the end of September. And to the 2nd part: we are in moderate La Nina, and I'm expecting a long-lasting La Nina that will extend to next year and maybe until May/June/July, so don't count on the activity cycle to end just yet. And I really wan't a source on the end of the activity cycle? Did experts expect the activity cycle in 1995 to start? No. Can we predict it with accuracy? Absolutely not. So, I do not think the activity cycle will end within the next 2 years. If it does, great, no more 2005's. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:34, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * No, this season is a bust. SINCE WHEN DO STORMS DIE IN THE GULF. I am not expect no more than a weak La Nina and that is if we are even a weak La Nina. This is not Wikipedia, we dont need source for every stupid fact. Also, 2004 was not hyperactive, unless you mean ACE. If you are asking for a source, give me a source that says the that there are angry because this season is a bust thus far. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:58, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * We are already in moderate La Nina. And I never said people were angry this season has been a bust, people are angry because of the high forecast numbers and as a result scaring them. And we do need a source if we are making statements to make them credible. And Bonnie died because it speeded up to the ULL, Five died because of poor organization, Two didn't become a TS because of Alex. Those are the explanations. And hyperactiveness is determined by ACE, and 2004 is in the top 10. Happy? And as I said, earlier, I believe this topic should stop, because of the reasons I said earlier. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 18:29, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * The question is are the ULL's are going to go bye-by. Also, how can a storm die because of poor organization? I still say but consertivly 12-6-3 which is not all that inactive at all. We could have a Gustav-type storm. And what in the heck is happening to the EPAC. They make high predilections, so that people prepare. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:50, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * If nothing else in teh EPAC forms this month, shut up about the Atlantic please? lol SOmething would be wrong.<font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 22:32, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, there is nothing wrong with EPAC, it's just that conditions aren't favorable there because of La Nina. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:20, August 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, I hate to break it to you, but despite what you're thinking about the heart being three weeks away, chances are, from where we are now, we won't have even a 2008 type-season; however, I completly agree with your point. It's not the forecaster's fault that they made the very active, scary prediction, it's when all these other people come in and say we'll be dead for good that kills the preperations people make for the season. Truth is, we probrably will be less active than forecast, it's just that, these people think we will have a completly dead season. SkyFury and I mentioned that it doesn't take an active season to get a notable season. Andrew permanently taught us that lesson. Every storm other than Andrew was an epic fail in 1992, but when he came along, he was at the time the costliest hurricane in U.S. history. I do not think we will get the forecasts NOAA was predicting, but I never said we won't get any notable storms this year. I'm fearing something big is lurking in the tropics this season, and no one should let their guard down just because it's mid-August. September, October, and November are yet to come, and all three months are capable of producing severe hurricanes. We shouldn't assume that this season will be dead until the season actually ends. Activity and notability rarely have any direct correlation; some exeptions are '05', '04', and '08. We need to be patient for the time being, as this season is far from over. About the active hurricane cycle, Darren? It had begun in 1995, and I had heard from climate experts that they were expecting it to last for 15-20 years from 1995, so it will probrably close up anytime from this year to 5 years from now in 2015. The reason why the mid to late 1970's, 1980's, and early 1990's were quiet was because the Cape Verde season in Africa basically shut down. From the 1970's to 1987, there was a severe drought over the Saharan desert, which sent a lot of dry air to stop any African waves from developing in that time period (The inactivity would continue until 1994 due to continued El nino events), but that drought killed all the hurricane seasons in the Atlantic ocean, and meant booming business for the Pacific ocean. From 1970 to 1994, exactly 9 major hurricanes made landfall in the United States:Celia, Carmen, Eloise, Frederic, Allen, Alicia, Elena, Hugo, and Andrew, but from 1995 until now, we have had Opal, Fran, Bret, Charley, Ivan, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma-10 U.S. landfalling major hurricanes in 15 years-that averages to 2 every 3 years, but from 1970 to 1994, we had an average of one major hurricane every 2 years. One half vs. two-thirds. It's a big thing, and we might get another one of these dead periods in the near future. Also of note, the total number of hurricanes to hit the U.S. in the 1970 to 1994 period was 29 (6 from 1985 alone), but as of now, we have had 25 from '95 onward (forgive me if i'm off by one or so), but still, that is quite remarkable. Ryan1000 02:05, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * The conditions of the EPAC have still not been explain, arent post-El Nino EPAC suppose to be years interesting. i agree ,t will be LESS ACTIVE in the forecast, but not saying we could have a Gustav type storm. I have a felling we will have a rapid flip to EL Nino in a year or so, but the SST's are expected to be a little cooler than last time, but we will probably have about 15 named storms. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:04, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Remember, the real Cape Verde season hasn't even begun yet. We got an early taste of a Cape Verde wave developing into a storm in the western Caribbean, and that became Alex. Bonnie and Colin after that were duds, but only because they started out as Cape Verde waves but only barely became tropical storms. The lid on the Cape Verde season is going to come off in about a week. The continuous wave activity will banish some of the dry air, and we'll have one storm after another. A late start to the season does not imply low activity, and in fact most of the late starting seasons in recent years have become monster hurricane seasons, just look at 2004 for example. We've gone from a strong El Nino to a strong La Nina, so this could easily end up like 1998. All it takes is one storm to devastate an entire country. Cape Verde storms are dangerous, as they could hit the Caribbean Countries, the Gulf or the East Coast. The Cape Verde train this year starts in late August and probably will not stop until late November, and since the ENTIRE Northern Hemisphere has been quiet and again, most of the extra heat, moisture and energy is right in the Atlantic, once that cap comes off we'll have a freight train of storms. Not only could this storm season end up like 2008, when all of its category four storms formed after this date, but even a 1998 or a 2005 is not out of the question. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:07, August 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Astro, this year's Cape Verde season is starting a little later than those other years, but the lid won't come off enough for us to have 28 named storms, yes, this season probrably will be slightly above average; I still hold my 12-6-3 prediction, but we are definitely not going to pull a 2005. 2005 had 7 named storms before August, 5 more in August, and 16 more from September to December. We will NOT have a 2005, but I can't really see even a 2008. 2008's Cape Verde season kicked off in July with Bertha and later-forming Dolly, just like 2005's. If this season's Cape Verde begun in July, then we probrably would have a 2008 or 2005 like season, too. The season generally has to start early to show a bad sign for future activity, because the contitions are favorable for a longer time period. Also, 2004, as I mentioned above, had 8 named storms in August, making it the most active August on record, and we will NOT have enough activity in the next two weeks for 7 more August storms. We will probrably get one or two more storms, but we won't have a 2004 August. Trust me, Astro, that won't happen. But September, October, and November are after that, and they could all be pretty nasty. Just be patient for now. Time will tell what will happen in the Atlantic, and worldwide, too. The Eastern and Western Pacific basins still haven't had their boom yet, either. The final predictions I'll make for the worldwide tropics are as follows:




 * WPAC:15-19 storms, 4-10 "phoons", 2-7 majors, and 1 cat. 5.


 * EPAC:9-14 storms, 4-6 'canes, 3-4 majors, and 1 cat. 5 (Celia)


 * Atlantic:8-13 storms, 3-6 'canes, 1 or 2 majors, and 0 cat. 5's.


 * SHem:24-31 storms, 14-18 cyclones, 6-12 cat. 3's, and 3 cat. 5's (by the SSHS)




 * Ryan1000 02:48, August 18, 2010 (UTC)


 * The thing about this season is that the air off the African coast has been just dry as a frickin' bone. The Saharan Air Layer is really thick this year. Look at this: . There is a huge cloud of dust sprawled way out across the Atlantic as far west as 40W, and this is not even as bad as it's been. That's what's killing your Cape Verde season right there. The cloud has spread so far south that it covers the Cape Verde Islands, the heart of Hurricane Alley. And this makes me think of an interesting theory that some scientist has come out with: that global warming may in fact hinder hurricane development as much as promote it. While the warming of the Earth's surface may make the ocean water warmer, it can also affect atmospheric patterns in ways that don't necessarily promote tropical cyclone development. One of those atmospheric wild cards is the Saharan Air Layer. A lot of scientists think that global warming may be enhancing the SAL. I found that to be a very interesting theory. Just because the oceans are getting warmer doesn't mean hurricanes are gonna have a field day. There's a lot more at play than just the temperature of the water. -- SkyFury 07:34, August 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * I mentioned that special fact above because some people in the U.S. are wondering why the 80's were so dead in the Atlantic. 2006 had very warm sea surface temps that weren't that much colder than 2005, but the atmospheric conditions were so unfavorable in 2006, we got nothing but a pretty average year. In the 1980's, during the Saharan drought, every African wave, or most of them, anyways, died out while crossing the Atlantic, but got going in the Eastern Pacific. In fact, all of 1990's storms in the Eastern Pacific came from westward moving African waves. If the Saharan Desert did not have their drought in the 70's to '87, then the AHS's in the 80's would look just like they were in today's active period. The truth is, the number of tropical waves to cross the Atlantic in the 80's wasn't that much lower than where it was from 1995 until now, but the African dust was nothing from 1995 until now, wheras in the 80's, it was so dense that almost all of the African waves died in the Atlantic, and redeveloped in the Eastern Pacific. If we have sea surface temps that are 1000 degrees, but crazy as shit shear and stable air, we can't really have a nasty season. In the same way, if there isn't an ounce of shear and freezing sea surface temps, then we still can't have a season. The 2005 season is a case where both factors came together, which explains the immense activity in that season. 2006 had very warm temps but very unfavorable wind shear and dry air, which corresponded to such a dead season in that year. We can't assume that the sea surface temps are the solemn reason for so many storms in 2005; if the atmospheric conditions don't correspond, then we can't have a season. In such a case, if we get knocked into an inactive period again, we might be less active then the 80's were because back in the 1980's, Global warming was not a very severe issue in the world. Now that it is, more dust will cross Africa's Saharan layer, which will kill more tropical waves. In the same way, during our next active period, 30 to 40 years from now, we could have more storms than during the one we're in now. I think the graph for hurricane activity will get steeper over time if this trend keeps up, in such a way as to where we are really quiet during our next cycle-quieter than the 80's, explosive in our next active cycle, more active than this one, then quieter than the previous quiet cycle, and more explosive than the last explosive cycle. Would you agree with this, SkyFury? I think this is a pretty decent theory for future hurricanes in the Atlantic, but patterns for seasons in the NIO and southern hemisphere have yet to be tested and figured out. The Pacific is supposed to contradict the Atlantic by most means. Ryan1000 18:32, August 20, 2010 (UTC)

Well, keep in mind that SSTs in the Atlantic were much lower in the 1980s than they are now. Remember in the early '80s, the east coast was getting slammed by massive blizzards. Record or near-record low temps were being set right and left across North America. This marked three-year dip in temps over North America corresponded with a dip in the jetstream that resulted in a harsh, almost winter-like environment over the Atlantic, with troughs (and therewith severe wind shear) extending deep into the tropics. At the same time, one of the strongest El Ninos in recorded history hit. But you brought up an interesting caveat in that the severe drought in Africa during the 1980s (very dry conditions prevailed worldwide throughout much of the 80s) would've enhanced the SAL. I think these three factors combined to cause near-record low activity in the Atlantic in the early 1980s. This, however, does not explain the inactivity in 1986-87. I think the big culprit there was another strong El Nino. The thick SAL may be partly responsible for '86, but most of the seven storms in '87 formed east of the Lesser Antilles. The SAL generally only affects areas east of 40W, not the entire basin, so I don't think it'll lead to a downswing in activity. However, I do think that it could lead to a pronounced westward shift in activity and fewer long-track Cape Verde hurricanes, or at least cause them to struggle until they emerge from the cloud at points westward. Look at 2005. Not one storm of tropical origin formed east of 40W. Vince was the only hurricane to form east of 55W, despite the fact that 2005 had more hurricanes than any other season in recorded history. All major storms except Maria did their business in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. That's hardly encouraging to any of us on the Gulf Coast, but that's the kind of activity that we may be looking at in the near future. (Although note that 2004 did not have this problem) -- SkyFury 08:34, August 22, 2010 (UTC)


 * Sky, keep in mind that the Saharan drought lasted until 1987, so '86 and '87 were probrably hindered from that, too. Also, '88 and '89 were more than exeptional for AHS's, and 1990 was very active but only Diana was rather exeptional that year. And from '91 to '94, we had a last-ditch strong El Nino before the 1995 to now hot streak in the Atlantic. When I realized how quiet 2009 was, and how quiet we are so far in 2010, i've been thinking we are falling into a dead period again. Worldwide, this will be a down year, but I can't be certain when that dead streak will come, but hopefully it will be soon. However, as you mentioned, hurricane activity can be hindered as much as promoted with the SAL. We'll have to wait and see what mother nature really does to us. Ryan1000 16:31, August 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Also, there was a lot of rain was a lot of rain in the SW US, but at the same time cool weather. Wind shear was also lower than they are today in the EPAC, but the winters were slighlty warmer in the SW today. The smae shoudl apply for th next activty cycle, whcih should begin soon. The ATL will see about 8 storms per year and the EPAC will likely see about 20 named storms per year. Becuase i live in Nevada, i will look foward to both. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:40, August 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Of course it is. Wind shear varies from time to time, and just because it is low today doesnt mean it will 5 days from now, and I'm sure you know that (actually, I'm not). And what's the basis to your activity cycle thing. How on earth would you know what's coming. I would like it to end and to end the misery in all the destructive ATL storms, but I believe that the only reason your saying that is because you love EPAC and you hate the inactive cycle. Well, guess what, the cycle aint gonna change only because you want it. Its gonna change eventually, but where's the proof that it will change this year? 2006 was a dead year too. 2007 was a fail year. But 2008 was an active year. What I'm trying to say is, don't make predictins which motivated only by your bias for EPAC. I think it might happen in this decade, but it also might not. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:00, August 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, climate experts have been studying the pattern for the active Atlantic seasons since 1995, and I read and saw that they were expecting it to last for 15 to 20 years from 1995, but it's hard to pinpoint direct accuracy for this fact. I mean, you and I, and everyone else on the Wikia, want the basins to switch around as soon as this year, but we can't tell if that'll happen for sure. We've had enough bad seasons, but if it doesn't end this year, then it will probrably end in any year from 2011 to 2015, based on what climatologists have been studying. You say we can't assume when it will end, but we want it to end ASAP. SkyFury, I can tell you want the West Pacific to be active again in hopes of seeing another Tip over open waters, but a Tip would be unlikely to see in the cycle we're in. And Sky, following what you mentioned with Rick of 2009, Tip would look beautiful on the sattelites with today's technology. Ryan1000 23:14, August 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Syper Typhoon Nida last fall in the West Pacific was quite a storm, and almost as large as Tip. It stalled for days and pumped out lows that injected themselves into the subtropical jet before bombing themselves out at 950mb until the typhhon dissipated. Those lows eventually stroked the Hudson low and brought the jet stream south to set up a snowy winter in the US but a warm and dry one in Canada. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:37, August 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ryan, I know the SAL was thick in 86/87, but in 1987, most of the storms that year formed in the eastern Atlantic, which would seem counterintuitive if you're looking at the SAL as a major cause of inactivity. In 1986, there was a strong El Nino. Only one storm formed after September 10, signifying the onset of El Nino. In 1987, the first storm didn't form until August 9, signifying the departure of El Nino. I think ENSO was the primary cause of inactivity in those two years. SAL increase alone cannot bring an end to an active cycle. A dramatic shift in large scale weather patterns would have to occur. That hasn't happened yet. We were on the 'D' storm at this point in 2000 and 2001, and were on the 'E' storm in 2004. I don't want to hear about the active cycle being over just because we're not putting up 2005-like numbers. We're actually running at about the average active cycle pace. In nine out of the past fifteen seasons, including this season, the 'D' storm formed between August 19 and August 29. Of the other eight seasons, six had at least twelve storms and five had at least eight hurricanes. -- SkyFury 01:26, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Then, please explain why the EPAC went nuts during the 80's. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:57, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Two of the strongest El Ninos in recorded history. Also the multi-decadal cycle was in favor of the Pacific during the 1980's. -- SkyFury 04:22, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Eric, in 1987, the Saharan air layer didn't dip south over Cape verde, but rather west across the Atlantic, so we had some Cape verde storms in that year, but they ran into the air layer after developing(exept for Emily, it was a rather ravenous storm that year). And the following two years, '88 and '89 were two years in the 80's that just woke up. We had a last ditch el nino in the early 90's, and in 1995, we just exploded. Since then, the Atlantic was on a roll, but we want this "roll" to end ASAP. I don't want any more terrifying atlantic seasons; when can the 80's come back to us again? I missed the quiet cycle and I want it to happen again. Ryan1000 13:40, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * You know, there's a reason they call it the "multi-decadal cycle;" because each cycle, active and inactive, lasts multiple decades. And didn't you just say you're not interested unless the Atlantic is losing its mind? -- SkyFury 15:01, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wel,l this is when Wikipedia come into play. The peak of AMO is 2020. But the Pacific page (which is call the dedcadal oscillation noted that 2008 was the mist of the cycle. So in about 2012-2015 the activity cycle /could/ change. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:03, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * According to climatology, the season should be really picking up right about now. And it is! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:37, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * Thank you, Astro! Also, everyone keep in mind that seasons immediately following an El Nino year often peak late. -- SkyFury 00:24, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * New research suggests recent El Nino Modokis occurred in 1991-92, 1994-95, 2002-03, 2004-05 and 2009-2010. Since this is a year following a Modoki ("Modoki", similar, but different, is the type on El Nino that does not supress Atlantic hurricane activity) and all of those other seasons had notorious storms (Andrew, Luis, Marilyn, Opal, Roxanne, Fabian, Isabel, Juan, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma), we should still expect this to be a late-starting, hyperactive season with notorious names and notorious tracks. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 02:32, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * That's what i'm fearing, Astro and Eric. My fear for Earl could turn out to be a nightmare, the first bad storm of this year. Stay tuned on Earl. I typed my fear above. Unfortunately, it very well might happen. Ryan1000 14:36, August 28, 2010 (UTC)

Dead basin thing (continued)

 * Our fist bad boy this year was Alex. You now what all of those years Asto mentioned expect for this year have in common, an active EPAC hurricane season. 1992 had 28 named storms, we have 6 thus far. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:09, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Not true, last year was average. The average is 16.3, and there were 17 named storms. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 15:37, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Depends which average you use. the NHC site says 15, 13,4 and 15.5. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:12, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Actually 15.3 1 <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 16:43, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * No, there were 20 storms last year, I count CPac storms. The CPac is not it's own season, it is with the EPac. It was thus the most acive season since 1992, the most active on record. This year cannot truly be predicted from now. Ryan1000 18:56, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * 2009 PHS was 95% of the ACE median (AKA, near normal). I usually dont like using #of storms for activity, because for example 1950 AHS did not have many storms, but it had an epic amount of major hurricanes, making it the 2nd most active season in terms of ACE. Anyway, 2010 EPAC, unless it gets the occasional wave or trough or whatever is there, will not have many storms. We are well behind climatology (1 month) in the number of tropical storms, a month behind in hurricanes, so unless there will be an epic amount of storms like what will happen in ATL in the next month, we will probably not see a very active season. I'm sorry YE, but its gonna be hard for a near-normal season to happen. (BTW, I'm using the 71-09 Average because apparently, the NHC thinks its accurate enough, and I agree) Using a different average leads a different result, but for the most accurate average, you have to put the most amount of accurate years.) <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:09, August 29, 2010 (UTC)

Darren, to tell the truth, I actually think that a season should be ranked on notablility. ACE determines how much "energy" the cyclones have in a season, but what's the point of that energy if no storms affect land? The 1950 AHS had two or three notable storms, and that's it (King, and Dog, possibly Easy). The 1992 AHS was a below average ACE of a season, but Andrew made that year very notable. The 1990 PHS was second to 1992 as the highest ACE on record(although the average ACE per storm in '90 was higher than '92) but only TS Rachel made landfall in 1990. Everything else was a fishie. The 1996 PHS wasn't very active, but it is only second to 1971 as having the highest number of landfalls in an EPac season, and great impacts, especially from Alma. No offense, but I don't care about a season if there is nothing special about it. 1887 is an example. One of the most active seasons on record, but nothing special during that year. You think that the longer strong storms last and the higher ACE they have, the more notable the season. Your ACE does come into account with storms like Allen, the 1947 hurricane, and the 1893 Charleston Hurricane, but notability is what matters most. There is no big point of a season having any worth unless a storm makes landfall and causes a great impact in the area hit. In the same way, # of storms and notability don't correspond either, or with ACE. Right now, rather than talk about ACE and dead basins, continue with what I typed about Earl above. It could be a big threat to New England. Ryan1000 19:40, August 29, 2010 (UTC)


 * Well, to a meteorological standpoint, a season which is active will be more notable than a basin which is deadly. If you dont give a damn about a very active season with fishies, then this aint the proper forum for you. So what if this season is not deadly? You're just gonna disregard it just because in your mind it ain't notable? This is a hurricane meteorology forum, not the hurricane deadliness or whatever you think it is forum. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:53, August 29, 2010 (UTC)


 * I dotn see any reason why we cant get 12-15 named storms in the EPAC. I agree with Ryan, some years have lot's of storms, but no major impact such as 1990 PHS. On the other had 1996 PHS had a lot of impact but few storms. Darren, you just want to call 2009 "near normal" to silence EPAC lovers such as me who love last year. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:25, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * You don't see why? You don't see why? I give up in explaining stupid facts to you. EPAC will be inactive, whether you like it or not. And accept the fact that 2009 and the NHC calls it "Near-Normal" and the ACE is Near normal and the averages are near normal. Get over it! You just dont get it do you? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:34, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * 2009 is just not "near-normal" in my book. I look at it this way "2009 had 20 EPAC/CPAC named cyclones the most since 1994" I have told you sevral times that post El Nino's are suppost to be at least somewhat active (12-15 NS). YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:47, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Your book isnt official. And this season is different. 1998 was in H by now, 2005 was in I right now, and I really don't care about the rest the post-El-Nino's. The point is, we've seen only 5 storms, and getting to double digits would be hard enough since June was an anomaly and that gave you 4 systems and 3 storms. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:22, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wrong, we have had 6 storm ths far. I don't think what hard about getting another 6 storms. EPAC storms coem in buches, so if we get a bunch of two or three more storms we are at 8 or 9. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:38, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * They sometimes form in bunches. But since the mighty ATL is now stealing all the tropical waves, that wont happen. Trust me YE, EPAC will be below average (I say that with 95% certainty), so do not get your hopes up. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:41, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Thus far, I am sastfied with the year. Howevr, I need 11 more stroms to be happy. Odds of that happening=good IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:28, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, I don't think that a season must be notable, but I view notability as more important for a season than ACE activity. It is fun to root for the big fishies to get very strong, but when it comes to things like the "Retirements at a glance" sections, I can't give these fishies any hope. I agree Darren, the EPac season will probrably be below average (no offense, YE), but again, notability and inactivity do not correlate all the time. 2002, for example, didn't turn out to be extremely active, although the ACE wasn't so far off, but when Hurricane Kenna came along, she became one of the strongest hurricanes to hit Mexico's Pacific coast, and by means of pressure, was the strongest. Let alone, 2002 was an el nino year, too. Darren, just one storm can make a bad season. We don't want any more bustcasting with fishies, and I fear something big is lurking in October of this year's Pacific season-but I just don't know what it will be. And as I mentioned, Darren, this discussion should stop. We should be paying attention to Hurricane Earl more than any "dead basin thing"s. It will be a bad storm, and it bears watching. Why don't you wan't to talk about him? If you want to talk about the EPac dead streak, go to that forum, this one isn't for the Eastern Pacific; it's for the Atlantic. Don't get me wrong, I don't want a bad season, but I don't want anyone to think there won't be any bad storms this year. If we don't lose the bust attitude or fishie attitude, it will just make things worse, trust me. I don't want anyone living in denial thinking it won't happen to them. Everyone must be prepared. Mother nature can throw anything at us at anytime. In short, my only fear is we will have a lot of fishie storms, but then we get something that isn't any fishie, and things will not look so good for those who were thinking this season was a fail. I DO NOT want this year to be like "the weatherman who cried hurricane" in which the forecasters say "get out" for the first several storms and they miss, but then a hurricane comes along and doesn't miss, but the people think it will, and bad things happen. That's what happened with Katrina. It's better to be safe than sorry. Ryan1000 01:18, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * To Ryan's post way above. ACE is a measure of activity and strength, not notability. You can't measure notability. You can't call 1992 "active", just because of Andrew. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 02:55, August 30, 2010 (UTC)

Alive basin thing
The activity is much more alive again. I dont live in the East coast, so I not concerned for my sake. It reminds me of last year, exept the EPAC and ATL are opposites! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:29, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Though the basins are alive, that isn't the point of the discussion. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 02:57, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ryan, why don't I just come out and say something like "Earl's gonna plow into NYC as a Cat 4!" That'll guarantee it comes nowhere near the coast. -- SkyFury 04:53, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * No. Eric, we can't assume what it'll do. I personally do not think New York will get a direct hit from Earl as of now, but it is not out of the question that it could hit eastern long Island or Rhode Island, ect. I'm just waiting. And Atomic, notability cannot be measured, but I view 1992 as "bad" not "active". I think that we as people should view storms that threaten land as more dangerous than those that don't affect land. Not to offend anyone by a meteorological standpoint, but it's what I think, overall, is true. Andrew was that kind of case. It wouldn't have been remembered for a long time to come had it not affected land. I think Earl will be something big to watch over the next few days. Also, I think you have noticed recently, the WPac is exploding right now. It's a good thing if storms don't affect land, but we are mainly worried about the storms that do threaten us, rather than the ones that don't. Ryan1000 11:18, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * I was kidding. All of New England needs to be paying very close attention to this thing, but in the long run, I don't think NYC will be directly impacted. I doubt they'll be enjoying their weekend much, but I don't see any major impacts coming into the Five Boroughs. Cape Cod, eastern Long Island and Rhode Island may be a different story though. -- SkyFury 22:45, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, then all we can do is wait. Ryan1000 22:59, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, seems like I was right. For August, ATL was above average and is 50% above average for the year. Any bustcasters around? :P <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:33, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Yes. A few WU users. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:56, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I don't think the Atlantic will be below average, but we still need twice the number of named storms and major hurricanes from where we are now to hit NOAA's minimum predictions they made on August 5th. However, I still think the WPac will be well below-average, and the recent hot streak they had there won't last very long. The East Pacific will probrably hit the average mark in numbers, but I don't think we will have lots of hurricanes and major hurricanes there. Ryan1000 20:27, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * If I am reading the ACE numbers right, the season is already at average for the year and is already above 2009, and IMO, there is a nearly 100% chance for an above average season in terms of ACE and storm amounts now. So, I'm still thinking that 16-8-4 is still possible if you think about it. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:19, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * I still hold the 12-6-3 prediction I made earlier, Darren. The peak of the season is 3 days away and after that we have just 3 more weeks until October comes. As of now, I am not very interested. The new waves off of the coast of Africa are very disorganized and won't develop in the near future, and the NHC says Gaston now only has a 20% chance of redeveloping in the next few days. I do not consider that number as "Gaston will redevelop". It could do that in the Eastern Pacific, but I don't think we will have a 2004 or 2008 from where we are right now, not in numbers anyways, but the ACE could be very different. Ryan1000 15:41, September 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Think about it very carefully. 12-8=4. 4 isn't a whole lotta storms. In fact, it can be done in September if this season sped up. Igor (91L) has been forecast to form for a few days now off Africa, I think there are still a few forecasting Gaston redevelopment in ATL, and some IIRC are forecasting Julia. We have a great chance at >14 storms (very good chance, and I'll bet we'll go over 14), and since this is La Nina, this season should last to... December maybe. And to the Gaston forecast: it has a 20% chance to form in the next 48 hours, that doesn't mean it will not form alltogether. I also think since most storms so far are weak and not-long lasting, we will probably not see a 2004 in ACE numbers, but a 2008 is not out of the question (80 ACE units I think to the 2008 number). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:22, September 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * No, Gaston wont regnerate. Since when do storms regenerate of DR. I am not sure if 91L will develop if it does it will likely be a fishspinner. Not all La Nina are hyperactive such as as 1991, 2007. Darren, you are just an ATL lover, but my prediction is 15-7-4. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:36, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, YE, 1991 was the start of an El Nino, and even so, Bob made 1991 somewhat exeptional. 1973 is a better example. Also, I'm still not predicting the numbers, but again, the ACE might still counteract that. Overall, I haven't found anything interesting so far this year in the Atlantic, exept for Alex a little bit. However, our new Atlantic storm, Igor, could change that in a heartbeat. Ryan1000 20:54, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

Did i say 1991? I meant 2001. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:43, September 8, 2010 (UTC)


 * Uh, YE? Did you look at 2001? 2001 had an ACE of almost 100, which definitely isn't below average. Also, 2001 had over 7 billion in damage, so it was both notable and slightly hyperactive. Just say 1973. That year was a La Nina, but was terribly inactive in terms of ACE and notability. 2007 was not at the average, but it did have 3 rather exeptional storms. This year is a whole new ball game. Ryan1000 23:27, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Major hurricane number 3 is here, Julia is coming, maybe even Karl, and there still many more where that came from. Ryan, are you sure you don't want to change your forecast? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:01, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * Oh, yeah. 'Bout that, yes, I say 15-8-4 instead of 12-6-3. I highly doubt we'll end up with my earlier prediction as of now. We will probrably turn out to be as active as 2004 or 2008 as of now, but I highly doubt we will suffer the impacts from those two seasons. We won't have a 2005-like season from where we are now, but 50 billion in damage seems somewhat unlikely, too, if all of these storms wheel around the Bermuda High and out to sea. Stay tuned.Ryan1000 21:13, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * We are ahead of 2008 and 2004 now and I change my prediction to 18-9-6 with an ACE of about 210% above median, and this could go further up.
 * I say we will probrably get a 2004 or 2008 season from now, but a 2005 is out of the question-- not by means of ACE, but numbers. I'll have to wait another two months until this season is done, by then i'll know for sure. Ryan1000 20:55, September 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * This has been a simply amazing season so far. I don't know why anybody thought this would be a bust. The atmospheric conditions were there, the sea temperatures were there, the steering patterns were there, the low shear was there, the increased instability was there, and even a late start usually indicates a bad season, just look at 2004 for example. Once climatology picked upm the season picked up, and it eat our expectations in the blink of an eye. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:18, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * Which is what I and alot of other people here were saying :P. It wasn't gonna be a bust as everything was there for an explosion of activity which is what we saw. 3 back to back major hurricanes! 2 of them rapidly intensified where no major hurricanes have, and 1 was a very intense Cat 4 (I could argue that it was a Cat 5, but I'm not going to). Oh well, there is an outside chance we could go to R, S or tie 95 with a T storm. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:58, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * The only reason people were saying this season would be a bust back in July and August was because we didn't put up 2005-like numbers at that time. Truth is, we will not do that, but we will have an above-average season. I'm thinking we will get a large number of strong hurricanes during this season, like 1950 in terms of majors, but more category 4's than 1999 or 2005. We have yet to see a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and the only TS to hit us as of now was Bonnie back in late July. Not to say we won't see one, but if we do, it will be one of the latest first U.S. landfalling hurricanes on record. This season isn't done, and we have a long, long ways to go. Ryan1000 22:51, September 18, 2010 (UTC)

Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season

 * This forum seems somewhat dead lets make it a little more active. Ill also create another forum later today. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:51, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * This is the ATL basin forum... :| <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 16:55, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * I know :P. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone