Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

September
Welcome to September in the Eastern Pacific! I predict we will spike up in activity with 4 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanea, and an ACE of 47. I hope we get a major this month, as we are the first season since 2005 to make it this far in without a major.

Here are my indiviual storm predictions:
 * 1) Lorena - A Category 2 hurricane forming away from land.
 * 2) Wali - A weak tropical storm with no land effects.
 * 3) Manuel - A Category 4 hurricane that survives from Mexico to Japan.
 * 4) Narda - A Category 3 hurricane that stays away from land.

These predictions are not accurate in any way.

Let's make it a great month here!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:17, September 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * EPac's going at a fairly brisk pace with number of named storms, but we're a little behind on intensity, no majors yet. Ryan1000 01:02, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

The EPAC sure had a suckish August. Look below:

OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN DURING AUGUST WAS BELOW AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH FOUR TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED...ONLY ONE OF THESE...HENRIETTE...REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH'''. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR HURRICANES IN THE EASTERN NORTH''' PACIFIC BASIN SO FAR THIS SEASON. BASED ON A 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY FROM 1981 TO 2010...THREE TO FOUR NAMED STORMS DEVELOP ON AVERAGE IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST...WITH TWO BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS ABOUT 40 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

I doubt Pewa and Unala helped the ACE so far either. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:25, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
New one south of Mexico, but like the previous storms, not forecast to do much. I'd actually be surprised if this even develops. GFS does see another storm behind this though which could explode, but long-term forecasts from that model have been quite off. Ryan1000 17:03, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

This invest is now on the TWO. It is very well defined, and a tropical depression could be in the making. It has a 20% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, but an 80% chance in the next five days. Also, if it does become a tropical storm and is named, we will exceed 2007 in terms of named Northeastern Pacific storms. 2007 stopped at Kiko. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:31, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

Hope is not a fail like the others hope is a major at last, shouldn`t this one be 99E.Allanjeffs 20:54, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

It should. Anyways, as gradual development continues, the invest now has a 30% chance of formation in the next two days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:44, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

Our next tropical depression could be in the making. This invest now has a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:11, September 3, 2013 (UTC)

Well, development is no longer expected. Despite a remote possiblity, I am starting to doubt it. There is just a 50% chance and a 70% chance in the next two and five days of formation. If it does form and get named, our 'L' name will be as pathetic as 2008's. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:04, September 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * 50/70 doesn't sound remote to me lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:42, September 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like future Lorena will probably be another fail. I hope we have our first major hurricane soon. Steven09876 T 00:26, September 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Lol would be amazing though if they are not majors neither in the Atlantic nor the Epac.that would be cool to see in a meteorological point of view.Allanjeffs 03:46, September 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, though I'd like to see something powerful at least once. Ryan1000 13:01, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

Well, this invest is shaping up. Conditions are favorable, and a tropical depression might come after all. It is now at a 60% chance for the next two days and a 70% chance for the next five. I predict a strong tropical depression from this system. And actually, in 1968, neither the EPAC nor the Atlantic produced a storm above Category 1 intensity (I doubt that because of Liza, Pauline, and Rebecca's disputed intensities). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:15, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

Here comes our next tropical depression! It will collapse shortly, but has a great chance of forming before then. The chances of formation in the next two days are now at 70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:01, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

I think this will be Tropical Depression Twelve-E and nothing more. There is an outside chance of Lorena from this, but I hope not. Steven09876 T 01:57, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
Oh well, the NHC classified it. It has winds of 30 knots (35 mph/55 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). No watches or warnings are in effect, but southwestern Mexico could see some locally intense rain an southern Baja California might get something as well. And I hate to break it to you, but if Ivo, Juliette, or Kiko did not impress you, this depression will not do so either. The NHC expects a tropical storm in 12 hours and 40 knots (45 mph) of failure. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:57, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, this year worldwide has had so many weakling little storms that hardly did anything. To put some perspective in this year, worldwide we have had only 15 hurricanes worldwide this year. Only 6 in EPac, (officially) only Utor and Soulik in WPac, none in the NIO and Atlantic, and 9 in the southern hemisphere. 1977's worldwide record low is 28 hurricanes. We'd need 13 more hurricanes worldwide to beat that record, but given the way this year's been going so far, it's not looking promising we'll beat that record. As for majors, we've had only five majors worldwide so far in this year, Utor and Soulik in WPac, and 3 (Sandra, Narelle, and Haruna) in the SHem. There were 6 in the 2011 Pacific hurricane season alone. 1977's record low number of major hurricanes was 12 worldwide, but there might have been a few cat. 2's that could've briefly made it. As for number of named storms, 1977's worldwide record low was 60 and so far we've had 45. We'd need 15 more storms to tie the record. If this year doesn't get on with it, it'll be not only a record inactive year here or in the ATL, but it'll be record-dead worldwide as well. Ryan1000 13:18, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lorena
35 kts/1003 mbar, with a forecast peak of 45 kts. Sigh, here's another one... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:46, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

At least Lorena should now hit 50 knots. God, EPAC, stop pulling a 2003! A tropical storm watch is in effect for Baja California Sur between Agua Blanca to Buenavista. On a happier note, this is the first usage of the name Lorena in 12 years! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:14, September 5, 2013 (UTC) YESSSSSSSSSS HI LORETTA :D I think you'll be a Ts or c1 at best. THIS IS PINKAMENA 21:21, September 5, 2013 (UTC) And may be a repeat of beatriz 11. THIS IS PINKAMENA 21:22, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well Dylan, Lorena might not be a complete fail, latest NHC forecast takes it right over outhern Baja as a TS. It could cause some flooding and damage, that's not a complete fail to me. But intensitywise, yeah. Ryan1000 21:45, September 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Another weakling?! Epac, stop pulling a 2003! Goddd! But this might bring lots of rain to the Baja Peninsula, so it might not be a complete fail. Steven09876 T 22:51, September 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * This isn't related to Lorena, but it might help explain how pathetic this year has turned out to be. Take a look at this. There's quite a bit of wind shear over the EPAC and Atlantic. (Look at the far left, and you'll see a couple pockets of 90-knot wind shear. I don't know if even a Category 5 could survive that lol.) Anyway, Lorena's pressure is up to 1005 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:31, September 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * But that is in the extreme corner of the basin not even an area where td or ts develops,and nop a cat 5 can`t survive that. two more ts and we are going to tie the farthest down a list has gone without reaching major hurricane intensity I believe it was Norma the last one in October we might brake the record like in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 03:38, September 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * The shear pattern over WPAC is surprisingly quiet, though any storm that approaches Korea is toast lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:41, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

And my prediction above is panning out correct. Lorena is slightly weaker now, at 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg), but it still has the same windspeeds as before. The tropical storm watch region stated above is now in a tropical storm warning, and a tropical storm watch is up for the Mexican coast between Mexico and Santa Fe. Gale-force winds extend 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Allan, 1967 made it to Olivia without getting a major (unless you are only including the 1971-now seasons). Also, 2003 made it all the way to Patricia without a major, based on your sentence wording. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:19, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

I mean this season haven`t so it may still havr a major and I mean 2003 didn`t have a major so it doesn`t count.Allanjeffs 12:17, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

Well, Lorena is now at 40 knots (45 mph/75 km/h), but its pressure remains the same. Mexico is about to get gale-force winds and rain of three to six inches. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:39, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lorena
Three letters: W-O-W. I was expecting a fail from the storm, but Lorena just fell flat on its face and became a re-Juliette. Currently, it is at 30 knots (35 mph/55 km/h)/1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). I doubt it will be as bad it was forecasted to be. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:47, September 7, 2013 (UTC)

Lorena = FAIL. We have another weakling! I hope we could get a major soon, hopefully future Manuel will become a major. The EPac is in so desperate need of a major right now! Steven09876 T 16:21, September 7, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie Comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.
 * Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme".

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE Tropical Cyclone  04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: Isaac829 E-Mail  16:59, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - No.
 * Barbara - 0% - No.
 * Cosme - 0% - No.
 * Dalila - 0% - No.
 * Erick - -∞% - No.
 * Flossie - 10% - Wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - No.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.
 * Pewa - 0% - No.
 * Unala - 0% - No.

ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. More to come... Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin? #No. WHAT A REAL CHIPMUNK lol
 * Barbara? #No.
 * Cosme #No.
 * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO.
 * Erick? #No.
 * flossie? Nah man
 * gill? Lazy fishy
 * HENRIETTE? Nah didn't do anything to Honolulu
 * pewa? Lol, no
 * uhnala? Uh, nala no.
 * Ivo? NAH MAN YOU FISH om nom nom
 * Juliette? TBA- you'd better please Romeo.


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions:

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville!
 * 2) Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards.
 * 3) Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name.
 * 4) Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances.
 * 5) Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * 6) Flossie - 2% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end.
 * 7) Gil - 0% - It did nothing special.
 * 8) Henriette - 0% - Henriette may have broken our Category 1 streak, but it is staying.
 * 9) Pewa - 0% - Similar to Unala, Tropical Depression Three-C, and Henriette, Pewa was a very interesting storm meteorologically, but impactwise, it should be long forgotten.
 * 10) Unala - 0% - Unala was quite an interesting storm meteorologically. However, it became Pewa's lunch before doing anything.
 * 11) Ivo - 0.01% - If previous serious storms to affect the Southwestern U.S. (Ignacio and Nora '97, Kathleen '76, Joanne '72, etc.) were not retired, Ivo should not.
 * 12) Juliette - 0.01% - The lack of major impact from Juliette essentially means its staying.
 * 13) Kiko - 0% - Despite how close it came to hurricane intensity, Kiko was a fail.
 * 14) Lorena - TBA - Still Active

Here's my predictions!

Steven09876 T 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Hell no.
 * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it.
 * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough.
 * Dalila - 0% - Nope.
 * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - Fishie.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.
 * Pewa - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Unala - 0% - Didn't do nothin'. Maybe cause Pewa ate this storm up for dinner. lol
 * Ivo - 0.5% - Not much impact, but it did bring a little moisture to my house as a remnant low.
 * Juliette - 0.1% - Romeo is mad at this failure. It just brought rain to Baja and nothing more.
 * Kiko - 0% - No land impacts.
 * Lorena - ? - Still active

STO12's Predictions:
 * ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here.
 * BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement.
 * COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme.
 * DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement.
 * ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement.
 * FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy.
 * GIL: 0% Just another addition to our streak of cat 1's, far from land too.
 * HENRIETTE: 0% Was certainly impressive to see it do what it did. But no retirement is to be arranged. Hopefully Henriette will impress us just as much in 2019.
 * PEWA: 0% A rare hurricane, but no retirement expected.
 * UNALA: 0% A rare weak storm that caused no impact to land.
 * IVO: 5% A weak tropical storm with a lot of moisture. No large impact.

<font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:05, August 26, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan Grand Speaks:

East Pacific: Central Pacific: Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again?
 * Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names...
 * Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah.
 * Dalila - 1% - See Cosme.
 * Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe.
 * Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish.
 * Henriette - 0% - Became a cat. 2, but no impacts on land.
 * Ivo - 1% - No impacts on land while tropical, but the remnants did cause some impact in Arizona.
 * Juliette - 3% - Some impact to Baja, but not enough to retire.
 * Kiko - 0% - Impressed us with that little stint of intensification, but you know the drill. No impacts, no retirement.
 * Lorena - ?? - Might flood southern Baja a little.
 * Pewa - 0% - Persisted longer than I thought, but nontheless, it stayed at sea.
 * Unala - 0% - Pewa ate her up.

I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. <font face="trebuchet MS">Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin: 0% fish
 * Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough
 * Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves
 * Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all.
 * Erick 0% nop another fish
 * Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur
 * Gil 0% fa-fa-fai-fai-fail,fail fail
 * Henriette:0% No my dear you are staying with the other 7 names that have been use,better luck next time.
 * Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:36, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Barbara 3% aint gonna happen
 * 2) Erick 1% Should go, but no
 * 3) Flossie 20% Actually, it has a better chance than some of you think. Hawaii requested Daniel 06 and Kenneth 05 after r all.

And they were still not retire,if Agatha that kill hundreds didn`t go there is no excuse for Flossie to leave.Allanjeffs 16:33, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Actually, Allan, that is not exactly true. The EPAC is the basin the WMO randomly retires names from. Alma was retired, but not Agatha. They retired Ismael, but not Norbert or Jimena. They retired Kenna, but not Liza, Madeline, or Lane. They retired Pauline, but not Tara. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:07, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Some retirements from the WMO seem random for EPac, but Flossie's chances of retirement are still slim. Just because some random names like Fefa of 1991 were retired doesn't mean Flossie will be. I have doubts it will happen, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 21:08, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alma was retire because it caused heavy damage in Nicaragua,Costa Rica and my country (Honduras) damage was considerable in two of the three.Ismael,Kenna and Pauline all have make a lot of damage,and the ones you mention shouls have been retire too.I will add Rick the same year as pauline many in Mexico suffer more than him than with Pauline and still was not retire.I believed Fefa was retired because it means something in Hawaiian or other language that means something for them,like what happen with Israel and Adolph.Allanjeffs 12:43, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fefa could've been retired for being a threatening storm for Hawaii, like Hawaii nominated Daniel '06 and Kenneth '05, but unlike Fefa, they were turned down retirement. Alma caused some damage in parts of Central America, but the damage Alma caused was clearly much less than Agatha of 2010 and even Aletta of 1982 (which didn't make landfall) but neither of them were retired while Alma was. Some of them should've been retired, I disagree that Rick was that bad for Mexico although it was immensely powerful, but storms like Tara 1961, and Kathleen/Liza/Madeline of 1976 should've been retired, but they weren't. Tico of 1983 and/or Lidia and Norma of 1981 were also snubs to an extent. Ryan1000 21:52, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Agatha was not retire because it was not nominate by Guatemala,Alma was retire because Honduras and Nicaragua are more loosely  in retirement as they do so more than Guatemala.So they may have ask for the name.Paul should have retired too but I understand it wasn`t because it was only a td when affecting El Salvador.I am not sure if a td that kill thousands or hundreds can be retire after affecting a country can be retire later when they become a ts and don`t affect another landmass.Allanjeffs 01:15, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Alvin has a TCR, and upped to 60 mph.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:20, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * 2nd southernmost TC on record for EPac, behind 1983's Adolph. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara's is out, not much is new. Ryan1000 06:10, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * It was reassessed to be slightly stronger than operationally estimated, though. 70 kts/983 mbar is the new peak intensity, versus the 65 kt/990 mbar operational peak. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * (Erick) was a remanent low six hours earlier and it its pressure was dropped from 984 to 983.Allanjeffs 21:12, August 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nothing's too special about Erick. It did kill two, however. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:47, August 28, 2013 (UTC)