Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI - N of Leeward Islands
Big bunch of convection to the east of 92L is being looked at by NHC. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. --Patteroast 20:47, 5 October 2007 (UTC)
 * This system behind 92L seems to be stealing its thunder...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW...CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 * I'm surprised this isn't 93L yet. --Patteroast 00:05, 6 October 2007 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Well, well, busy aren't we? I only checked WeatherUnderground, BTW. What's weird is, WeatherUnderground is a crystal ball! It said that Humberto was Humberto and Krosa was a cat 4 before those things came true. Well, any thoughts? Surely, with this many INVESTS, one of them has to give me rain. We're now that overdroughted anymore, but a few more extratropical remnants would be nice :P. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:08, 6 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Models initializing, up on NRL. 92L is taken down; it's been killed by this system, which stole most of its associated convection. IP (Talk) (The Project)  01:10, 6 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Off as an INVEST, but some models, most notably GFS, merge this thing's remnants and turns it into a re-Juan, hitting anywhere between New York and Newfoundland. Talk about yikes. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:53, 9 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Should not be off as an invest. IP (Talk) (The Project)  01:30, 9 October 2007 (UTC)


 * If 93L is the thing directly south of Bermuda, I agree with you. I think it's the most interesting thing out there right now. It is a completely independant system with an established low pressure center an good cyclonic turning. Shear is iffy though, 10-20 knots. -- SkyFury 21:29, 9 October 2007 (UTC)

That is correct. Let me point out here that despite the fact that storms, even this year, have formed in 10-20 knot wind shear, Jeff Masters considers it a physical impossibility. I hate that man with great force. This one should be watched. IP (Talk) (The Project)  10:41, 10 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I continue to be impressed by this system and have no idea why nobody is paying any attention to it. It may never become anything, but it's certainly an area worth watching. Doesn't make sense. -- SkyFury 13:09, 10 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Are you kidding me? This thing looks just like a sheared tropical cyclone. Could someone please tell me why nobody is noticeing? This is driving me nuts. -- SkyFury 13:47, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * The reason is, my friend, I've spent the last 2 hours with my new D40. You're right, by the way. IP (Talk) (The Project)  21:13, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI - NW Caribbean
Hmm. Another new one, NHC seems to like this one. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. --Patteroast 20:47, 5 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I also like this system. I've been tracking it since it was a small low; now some thunderstorms have sprung up. Highly favorable environment, very low wind shear (at the moment), and a small amount of model consensus. I'd say put your money on this guy. Waitin' for 15L, IP (Talk) (The Project)  21:38, 5 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Uh oh. This one might even merge with the Bahama blob. Remember Lorenzo, the result of the merger of several disturbances? Now there are SIX areas in the TWO!!! Things are getting busy *uh uh uh*. The. Is. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:02, 6 October 2007 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Another Invest. Anyway, I expect this to strengthen into at least a tropical storm before hitting the Yucatan. 71.7.210.87 20:03, 6 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Meh, give it time. Needs to develop a bit more. Cyclone 1 logged out. 20:37, 6 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Latest HWRF run gives a category 3 landfall in Cuba! --Patteroast 12:18, 8 October 2007 (UTC)


 * GDFL also brings it up to tropical storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan, but instead of recurving it into Cuba right off they have it dwindling over land before moving back off in that direction. Interesting to see what becomes of this. 67.155.250.26 17:46, 8 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Latest model runs look a little less optimistic about this thing's future, though the NHC seems more interested in it than before. TD 14 in the near future, perhaps? 67.155.250.26 22:11, 8 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Uh oh. The models are stumped. They have no idea where this storm is heading. None of them agree. So it could go anywhere. It could influence any other wave. The recon was cancelled, though. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:56, 9 October 2007 (UTC)

GFDL takes it back through into the Caribbean as a healthy storm, so this could get interesting. IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  01:30, 9 October 2007 (UTC)


 * NHC is less impressed with it and I can understand why, it's just running out of time to develop before moving over land. Whether it loops back out and has a chance to develop again as suggested by that GDFL run, we'll have to wait and see, but it looks like this won't be doing much in the immediate future. 67.155.250.26 16:14, 9 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Ref the last GFDL and CMC, and GFDL doesn't even focus it (it's usually much stronger with focus than without)! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  18:57, 9 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Is it just me, or is this thing intensifying over land? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  22:41, 9 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Just you. -- SkyFury 13:10, 10 October 2007 (UTC)


 * F***! The NHC has completely lost it. They cancelled all the areas in the TWO. In my books, that's 15 areas potentially conducive for developement. With that many, it's only a matter of time before a few areas go back up. That system that's supposed to absorb the former 92-93L is still over land and giving us clouds and showers. Now the NHC is bathing in crap, as well as shoving it into their eyes. That's why they're going blind. Seriously though, I don't see how half a dozen AoIs could go away at once. Just wait. This season is going to be way above average. I'd say about as active as 1995. Also, could you guys stop making obscene comments, they're straddling the border of a personal attack. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:23, 10 October 2007 (UTC)


 * OMG. LBAR overdevelopes everything. It made 90.L dump itself right over my house, it predicted Melissa would strengthen in the open ocean or become a re-Vince or re-Delta, and now it predicts that this storm will be a hurricane and hit Wiki Central head-on. "Head-on, apply directly to the hurricane! Head-on, apply directly to the Wikimedia Foundation! Head-on, apply directly to the LBAR!" Anyway, this storm could still go anywhere. You never know. By the way, GFDL dissipates it, then redevelops near Lorenzo-territory. This is also close to where Dean hit. It might dissapate, or a few could redevelop. Let's wait and see. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:40, 10 October 2007 (UTC)

Eric, Eric, Eric, how long can something develop over land? Not for a day! And the NHC has gone completely bazonkers. And no more crap, PLEASE NO MORE! And stop with the head-on stuff, that's C1's copyright material. But in real life, this thing is off the coast now, and gaining strength. <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:23, 10 October 2007 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
It's up!! It is VERY far north too, out in unknown territory. Could be upgraded as soon as tonight. Next Vince? Cyclone 1 logged out. 20:37, 6 October 2007 (UTC)


 * OK... Just when you thought this season couldn't get any weirder, look at this: . Yep, it's a 50 mph storm headed straight for Europe, and it's gaining tropical characteristics. Vince who? <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 20:42, 6 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Weird, but not heading for Europe. It's a fishie. Cyclone1 (21:23 UTC -6/10/2007)


 * Gone. --Patteroast 15:00, 7 October 2007 (UTC)


 * The NHC is eating crap. All the invests are gone except one. They had SIX areas on the TWO this morning, and now just one! That's just weird. I think at least one of them will be re-invested. Only time will tell. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:42, 9 October 2007 (UTC)

Don't try humor, Astro. Leave that to the people who have actually eaten crap, or done something similar. Like drinking Diet Pepsi. Seriously though, most of them ARE dead, except for this one thing several hundred miles off of the Bahamas. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  01:29, 9 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Near Jamaica
That's a lot of strong convection in one place. -- SkyFury 13:12, 10 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Interesting blob there, but, with what we've had this season, we'll have to wait and see if it develops. - Enzo Aquarius 15:19, 10 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Jamaica was nowhere near 95L. And I believe I did see some beginning signs of a low earlier in the day. <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:18, 10 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI - Lows Near the Lesser Antilles
There are two of these buggers, both of them looking a little organized and having some evidence of cyclonic turning. They are about to hit an area of 31 degrees SSTs. I haven't checked model developments, but any low associated with convection in that area should be monitored. <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:18, 10 October 2007 (UTC)


 * The one near 57 west is bombing out. This could get interesting. <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:53, 10 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Or not. They're dead. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:37, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Neat sub-tropical formation in the central Atlantic about 30 degrees off the east coast of Florida. Predicted to head northeast. - Enzo Aquarius 15:18, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

Any models bring it close to Nova Scotia?
 * Not that I can tell. NHC thinks it might develop a little before getting absorbed - I suppose we'll have to wait for the next model runs though :) 67.155.250.26 16:31, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Na. The NHC says any increase in t-storm activity will cause this to be regarded as a tropical depression. That's pretty hardcore. <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  16:31, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Definitely noticed by the NHC now, possible development in 48 hours. - Enzo Aquarius 16:57, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Finally! Jeez. It looks exactly like a sheared tropical cyclone. It looks like it has an LLCC and everything. Shear or no shear, I'm still impressed. May not get a name though, because of the shear. -- SkyFury 18:59, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

15L.NONAME
Upgrade at 5! Cyclone1 (19:53 UTC -11/10/2007)
 * Forecast to be a dud, though, so it doesn't look like Noel material. 67.155.250.26 20:47, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15
Official. Cyclone1 (21:08 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * GODDAMNIT Cyclone1! How do you do this?! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:10, 11 October 2007 (UTC)
 * With help from a little forum called Storm2k. :P Cyclone1 (21:28 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * ICK! I hate forums; they just don't work like this place does. We need some kind of information stream for everything here. Recruitment, perhaps? Or maybe just a few ultra-dedicated users. Most of the people on the forums seem stupid and ignorant anyway (for an even MUCH worse example, see the posts on Jeff Masters' Wunderblog.) <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:32, 11 October 2007 (UTC)
 * True, there are LOADS of wishcasters. But, I like Storm2k. Once you get used to the layout, it's kinda nice. But I'm not here to promote other forums, so back to the depression. (BTW, Wunderground sucks.) Cyclone1 (21:38 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * HA!! Who predicted this exact thing to happen: 96L develops but does not get a name? Believe that was me. I feel badass. -- SkyFury 21:37, 11 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Whoa, Eric. It's not dead yet. Cyclone1 (21:38 UTC -11/10/2007)

It's welcome to prove me and NHC wrong. -- SkyFury 21:42, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * How did you post that... Never mind. And you, Eric, used the word "may". As in "may" not get a name. Yeah. Spot on, buddy. GFDL to TS (but it's really inaccurate at only 6-12 hours) and HWRF keeps it a weak depression. GFS and CMC, etc. don't do much with it either. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:47, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Yay, another instantly-killed-by-shear storm in the Atlantic. This season is putting me to sleep. Bob rulz 22:16, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * We still have all month. Cyclone1 (22:28 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * Yeah, all those category fives, super rapid intensifying cat ones, high latitude storms, strangely placed ones, and other super unusual phenomenon ARE VERY SCREWING BORING. Has it occurred to what it takes for a storm to FORM in this kind of shear? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:17, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Lorenzo and Humberto happened so fast I almost missed them. The only storms that really kept my interest were Dean and Felix, which were pretty amazing storms. Ingrid and Karen held my interest for a while due to their potential, but both were killed by, what else, strong shear.
 * To be fair, I have very high standards, though. :P And Cyclone1 is right, we still have this month to get through, and November and December can produce their fair bit of surprises, too. Bob rulz 21:24, 12 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I hate to say it, but that storm sucked. :P - Enzo Aquarius 21:26, 12 October 2007 (UTC)

It looks pretty cool though. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:38, 12 October 2007 (UTC)
 * True indeed. The storm doesn't look like it's there, but (of course) it is, it's weird. - Enzo Aquarius 21:59, 12 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Told you. I hope none of you ever had high hopes for this one. -- SkyFury 22:09, 12 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Yes, you certainly told us that this storm may not have had a name. Well f&#king done! It still looks cool :P. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  13:04, 13 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI: North of the Canaries
Tight little swirl north of the canaries. Could gain convection tonight. Watch the NRL for a 97L. Cyclone1 (19:04 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * Cyclone1 (19:08 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * Dang... I would've never noticed that. I doubt anything will come of it, but it's definitely 2007-esque stuff (as in, really f%#king strange). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:12, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Unofficial, up on Wikipedia (funny place to look for those things), and NRL seems, according to them, to acknowledge its existence. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:30, 11 October 2007 (UTC)
 * But not on NRL? Strange... Cyclone1 (21:39 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * Well developed circulation, but without convection this one's going nowhere. -- SkyFury 21:39, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Hmm, reincarnation of 95L, maybe? It's not even on the TWO, and unless this pulls a Vince, or enters the Meditteranean, I'd be somewhat uninterested. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:40, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * What the? All this within 60 seconds and not a single edit conflict? Oh no, did I forget an edit summary again? Eeek. I mean, NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ok, maybe not, it's just an edit summary :P . 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:43, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Actually, some pressure models do take this guy's remnants into the Med Sea. And I'm really surprised this hasn't gotten to an edit confli- ... better not finish that sentence. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:49, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

Noooo way, not a remnant of 95. 95 was completely absorbed, and this formed from a separate storm complex. Cyclone1 (21:58 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * Huh? How are you all on all of a sudden? This is becoming faster that instant messaging! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:01, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * In theory we should be edit conflicting each other. Anyway, I don't think this will do anything, but you never know. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  22:13, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Up on the NRL. Woohoo. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:37, 12 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Down from the NHC. Woohoo. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  13:05, 13 October 2007 (UTC)

Potential AoI: Off the coast of Ontario, I mean, New York
(edit conflict! That's you, IP)Large storm stretching from Ontario to Newfoundland to the Carolinas. Yesterday, there was an eye-like structure near Michigan or Southern Ontario. Yes, it rained. In fact, some areas are now having snow, that's how strong this thing is. May merge with the former 92-93L, and possibly even the frontal system between Jamaica and the Bahamas, or even TD 15. Might make landfall on Maine. The rest of it just might give me some snow. If it does, that might happen tomorow. In fact, it was a year ago tomorrow that we had our first snow of the 2007-2007 winter. Possible repeat? Will this thing attain Subtropical Depression status? We will wait and see. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:54, 11 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Off the coast of....... New.....York? ... ... ... Ooooookay.... Cyclone1 (21:56 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * Okay, here's an image of the storm. Big storm, isn't it? Ugh, SHIFT+scroll should be destroyed. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:07, 11 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Big storm, but if this becomes a subtropical cyclone, I will jump off the SkyWay bridge. It is no where even kinda near anything that could be considered somewhat sub-tropical. Cyclone1 (22:11 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * I see, like, two clouds. Seriously. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  22:12, 11 October 2007 (UTC)

The big storm over Ontario... Cyclone1 (22:14 UTC -11/10/2007)


 * You mean, pathetic storm over Ontario which has about as much chance for development as a field of cows. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:19, 11 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Nominally speaking, a field of cow is a great area to develop. No buildings to tear down to start with :-D--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:32, 12 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Now, about that eye over Ontario, here's the loop. See? Kinda like hurricane Huron, huh? Now the system over the Bahamas, although development is not expected, seems to have a pseudo-eye. Thing could become (yet another) weather bomb for the Atlantic Provinces. That thunderstorm over New York is looking impressive. Anyway, this probably doesn't have any better chance than the other Gulf Stream disturbances we've had this year, but since it's October, we could have a Nor'easter. What's weird is, a lot of models love to "explode" these storms right over Scandinavia. Another unnamed_tropical_storm_(2006), or unnamed_tropical_storm_(2005), perhaps? Let's see if it snows tomorrow, it's expected to be just above freezing tomorrow morning! Brr! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:52, 12 October 2007 (UTC)


 * If you just click play, it's the eye over Quebec. The one I'm talking about is only if you click 48 or higher. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:56, 12 October 2007 (UTC)

God, did anyone tell you we absolutely LOVE you here, Guillaume? Yeah, I see what you mean. We over here got that system today, and nothing happened. And I have no idea what you are talking about, still. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  01:19, 12 October 2007 (UTC)
 * One can but do one's best. Wouldn't want to let anyone take themselves too seriously :). That said, was that minor rainfall in Montreal this afternoon and evening (and when I say minor, I mean a few drop) supposed to be this big monstrous system?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 04:19, 12 October 2007 (UTC)
 * I got TONS of rain from that system (and got soaked >_>), but this is most interesting indeed! - Enzo Aquarius 21:29, 12 October 2007 (UTC)


 * GODDAMNIT, WTF are you people talking about?! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:38, 12 October 2007 (UTC)


 * This weird system on the northeast coast of the USA. - Enzo Aquarius 22:00, 12 October 2007 (UTC)


 * What? Guys, get off the f***ing drugs, they're bad for you. This would be October. This is prime nor'easter season. A lot of large, extratropical storms/gales/non-tropical-cans-of-whoop-ass form in that part of the world this time of year. Hence the reason why fishing the Grand Banks is so freakin' dangerous. If a hurricane forms off the Maine coast or over Ontario, I will swallow cyanide, because it probably means the end is near. Now will you all please quit huffing. -- SkyFury 22:21, 12 October 2007 (UTC)

Oh, they're looking at the gale thing that's over there? I'll put up percentages: 90% gale thing, .001% tropical thing, (int) (snowball's chance in hell) strong tropical thing. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  13:02, 13 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Astro, I think I might be able to find some numbers of rehab organizations that might be able to help you work through those drug issues of yours... -- SkyFury 18:44, 13 October 2007 (UTC)


 * No, Eric, you couldn't possibly :P. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:29, 13 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Ahem, TEB and 68.100, you two really need to be a little more civil. I don't care if it's a joke, but it borderlines on a personal attack. Stay on topic, and remember, just because someone of overreacting does NOT mean they're on drugs! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 02:11, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh for sh!t's sake, calm down! It's all in good fun, and Eric has mentioned everybody as on drugs at one point or another (except himself... Hmm...). And for love of humanity, call me IP ; ). While we're off topic, what's with TEB? Call him Eric or Skyfury or Scumbag, not TEB (see? Good natured fun!). Sorry if you took offense, but it really is all Eric's fault (please don't hurt me for this). Anyway, back to the... Wait, no, it's just a gale thing. False alarm ; ). It's all to big to care about anyway (the system, not the earth :P). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  12:45, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Seeing as this board is populated almost exclusively by people under drinking age, there are without question going to be drug jokes. I wasn't seriously saying you were on drugs, it was just a joke. If you can't take a joke like that, then I feel bad for you. We're all just a bunch of geeks here to have fun (que: humor). By the way, IP, I'll show you scumbag, you scumbag ;)! -- SkyFury 21:04, 14 October 2007 (UTC)

I'm not a geek. At least not by the normal definition. I'm one of those quiet shy people that's in the corner doing things that would BLOW YOUR MIND. And athletics. I just hang out with geeks. So I'm one by the associative property (no, not THAT associative property). And only three more years for you Eric. Don't say you haven't had a sip in your whole life! I've had at least a bottle (not in one sitting :P). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:45, 15 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Bermuda again
That old frontal system that NHC gave up on is looking pretty good right now and I think there's a low associated with it. Shear is getting pretty hostile, though, I think. -- SkyFury 18:44, 13 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't think this is making it anywhere, but you never know this season. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:28, 13 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks like a TD-15 repeat. Cyclone1 (21:27 UTC -13/10/2007)


 * Could be too frontal. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  22:18, 13 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Um, guys, I think you really should know this. Uhh...this frontal system...is partially responsible for severe flooding and landslides in El Salvador, Costa Rica, and Cuba. Dozens are missing or injured, and several may be dead. If this thing doesn't develop, it will already have caused a whole bunch of damage. Not just this thing near Bermuda, but the whole frontal system from Bermuda to Central America. Let's see if a portion of this doesn't develop. I mean, if a depression could get an article for one tornado on Florida, severe flooding near Erin in the US could get an article for severe damage and deaths, then why not this storm? Let's wait and see. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:20, 14 October 2007 (UTC)

Because it's dead and as of yet not particularly notable... ? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  15:43, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks much more like a storm this afternoon. I don't think it's dead. However, I do think looks are decieving here: the center appears to be well off to the southwest of the rough stuff. -- SkyFury 17:04, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Drive this into your brain: IT IS NOW DEAD. I see NOTHING on the sat picture anymore. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:41, 15 October 2007 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
This is 94L, back again. SFC pressures are rising quite fast, but the NHC seems focused in on this guy. Thoughts? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  12:51, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Woah, models predict a hit as a tropical storm near where Felix hit. LBAR again with the scariest forecast, bringing it over Tampa, possibly as a Cat 1. In fact, could hit almost anywhere in the Gulf. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:31, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * This isn't 94L. Cyclone1 (15:31 UTC -14/10/2007)


 * No, sorry, you're right, but the pictures back then on the NRL were centered near 98L, and I got confused. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  15:40, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't even know what this is to comment about it. There's 99L off Belize. 97L off Bermuda. Where the hell is this one? Is it that weak low in the southwest Caribbean mentioned in the TWO? -- SkyFury 17:08, 14 October 2007 (UTC)

It's 1006 hPa, which means it's the strongest sfc low for hundreds and hundreds of miles. And yes, it is. GFDL emphasizes an intense TS with this one. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  18:20, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has increased, but the shear's gonna have to let up before anything can become of it. If it's headed west like the models say it is, it's got a chance. Conditions are more favorable over there. -- SkyFury 20:55, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * COC visible, flaring convection, should make TD. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:11, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Guys, TALK!!! The large frontal tropical disturbance reigon assoicated with this system is responsible for thousands of evacuees and around 20 deaths across Central America, article, anyone? This might not be a TD, but it's already dangerous. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:20, 16 October 2007 (UTC)


 * No article. And this thing is dead, you meant to post on 99L. <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  16:11, 17 October 2007 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
THIS is 94L back again. Near the Yucatan. Cyclone1 (15:31 UTC -14/10/2007)


 * Yep. SHIPS to 51 knots, consensus on West Florida landfall (Ready for another, C1?). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  15:41, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Latest TWO -

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND BELIZE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS LOW. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
 * Get ready. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  15:47, 14 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Teehee. Don't nobody was payin' attention to this one. If it's getting a name, it will more than likely be in the Gulf of Mexico. Not much water left out there. -- SkyFury 17:00, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, kinda duh, unless it pulls a Humbenzo. It's got a good chance for a number, though. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  18:19, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * NHC is predicting it to turn to a TD within 12 hours. - Enzo Aquarius 18:50, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Models consensuating on a landfall near New Orleans as a TS. Besides, considering that the worst storm Florida has had this year was Barry, I don't get what you mean by "another one". The good news is, this thing is not expected to intensify to a hurricane before hitting New Orleans, if it even hits in that reigon. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:22, 14 October 2007 (UTC)

Window's closing. I don't see anything out of this one unless it survives into the Gulf of Mexico (which I doubt, given its size). -- SkyFury 20:52, 14 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Don't agree. This is too strong a low not to make depression. It's looking really strong for the first time in its life. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:08, 14 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI: North of Libya
This thing is being discussed on both Storm2k and Wikipedia. Looking at the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean, this looks the most prominent. There's also the one east of Spain and the one near the Canaries, but this one may be the most prominent. Any thoughts on these storms? Let's see if it does anything. Apparently anotehr Wikipedian is sending NHC an email, but I'd never be brave enough to do something like that. Let's see if this does anything. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:18, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * For god's sake, give us links! Like this one! And the most impressive one I see is in the Mediterranean. But wouldn't it be great to see Franklin mention Wikipedia as a source? If it is that little tight bundle of convection, I don't see it going anywhere. Could someone point whatever it is out to me? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:40, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Ok, look at the NE Atlantic and Meditteranean. There are three interesting areas: the one near the Canaries, the one east of Spain (Mediterranean), and the one between Sicily and Libya (Mediterranean). The one Between Sicily and Libya is the one I'm mentioning. It's about time something formed in the Mediterranean. See here for links to images. Is it time for the Mediterranean to get busy? Let's wait and see. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:26, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * From what I see, this thing probably was some sort of subtrop earlier, now it's a T-storm. The one North of Libya, same, maybe not really subtrop though. It looked really cool earlier. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:48, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Whoa! CMC and GFS take something HUGE into the Med in a few days. Does anyone have a global version of these? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  18:55, 19 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI - Floater INVEST
This is the thing near South Florida. Don't know why it's an invest though. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:41, 18 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Maybe they're just getting bored of October, too, and need something to watch. 67.155.250.26 15:36, 18 October 2007 (UTC)
 * I don't see it. Cyclone1 (19:41 UTC -18/10/2007)


 * I don't think anybody EVER saw it. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:46, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Was it on NRL? Cyclone1 (19:49 UTC -18/10/2007)

Nope, NHC floater. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:11, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Then it's not 90L. I changed the header. Cyclone1 (21:44 UTC -18/10/2007)


 * Wait, hold on, you're asking if it was? I don't know, I didn't have time to check. It's not up now. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:26, 18 October 2007 (UTC)

It's never been on NRL. Looks like it may never be. Cyclone1 (00:18 UTC -19/10/2007)


 * I think NHC made a mistake, because they're not taking it down. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:32, 19 October 2007 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Don't worry, this time I checked with the NRL, and this thing looks FANTASTIC! Convective clouds are now directly over the low, and it seems that the LLCC is pretty healthy. Anyone reminded of a specific hurricane season? Anyone? <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  16:18, 25 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Zzzz .. huh .. what what? Something going on in the Atlantic?  Humm, doens't look bad to be honest, although the models aren't really doing much with this .. though it's kind of nice to have something to keep an eye on again .. 67.155.250.26 18:51, 25 October 2007 (UTC)


 * FINALLY something to track. Looks surprisingly well considering the horrific conditions it's in. Surprised it's been able to develop... Cyclone1 (21:45 UTC -25/10/2007)


 * Read the latest two, they're now on board the "Could be a depression" package. Mind if I say, "Here we go again?" <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:44, 26 October 2007 (UTC)

On the verge of TD says the 11:30 TWO. I'm convinced this will become TD-16. Cyclone1 (15:57 UTC -27/10/2007)


 * The Atlantic's not done yet! This one looks pretty good. And 'on the verge' used by NHC tells me that we could see advisories today. -- SkyFury 17:11, 27 October 2007 (UTC)


 * HWRF and GFDL as hurricanes. Settle down boys. Here we go. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  18:31, 27 October 2007 (UTC)

Extremely deep convection has established itself over the center during the last couple hours. If the current convective trend continues, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a hurricane approaching the western tip of Cuba in a few days. With an upper-level anticyclone, a trough enhancing strong diffluence, warm and deep waters, and favourable shear, I wouldn't even put a major hurricane out of the realm of possibility. If 90L can consolidate itself into a depression overnight, it will have a good 3-4 days to intensify over water. This could be a potentially dangerous hurricane, so be prepared everyone. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 23:13, 27 October 2007 (UTC)


 * The scariest bit about that is that he's right. Sends shivers down my spine, it does. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:31, 27 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, just like December 22, 2012. Why is everybody playing Nostradomus here? What anticyclone? While this could be a dangerous hurricane, it could also just be a number. Dean and his Latino friend aside, this has been a very underachieving season. Of the fifteen storms (including depressions), only four have been hurricanes. Four have been ravaged by shear, two have formed in the middle of nowhere and five or six were of non-tropical origin. The TWD mention this system being bothered by shear, that makes me think not so highly of this system. The convection is quite impressive and I would indeed be surprised if it doesn't get at least a number but beyond that, I reserve judgement. -- SkyFury 00:42, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

16L.NONAME
Tropical Depression Sixteen, according to the NRL. I still think this thing could be trouble. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 00:48, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh, and this shear map shows the anticyclone over the western Caribbean nicely: . While Tropical Depression Sixteen may never find itself directly under it, it will most likely still feel some of its positive effects. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 00:53, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * That it will, sir. Anyhow, if this thing continues west, it most likely will become a fairly strong hurricane, and if it goes up to the north, a somewhat weaker storm. I believe that, at this point, a major hurricane is not completely out of the question but only if 16L does not hit land early and does not track to far north. That being said, it still does not have too much of a chance for major status. This almost certainly will be Noel, however. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  01:11, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh, and don't say tropical yet. It looks fairly subtrop, although the convection seems to suggest otherwise. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  01:11, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I'd bet my house it isn't called subtropical. Cyclone1 (01:36 UTC -28/10/2007)


 * Trick or treat! Looks like you're gonna keep your house, Cyclone1 (unless you happen to have a winter home in Cuba). NHC says it's tropical and now officialy has a number. That afforementioned anticyclone should give it a little break and allow it to become a storm. Whether or not it becomes a hurricane depends on how much of a break it gets. IP, I still think you're being a little aggressive with this one. I think it's too close to land for anything significant. Note that both Humberto and Lorenzo were small systems. This is a large system and will a) take longer to get it's act together and b) be more easily affected by the land interaction. It still won't be a very happy Halloween for anyone in Cuba, Haiti or Jamaica. -- SkyFury 07:02, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

Dude, have you SEEN the models? Like, at ALL? EVER? I'd say that this thing has a damn good chance of making hurricane. I frankly just don't see the fuss over why it couldn't. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  12:21, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 16
Now that it's official this needs to be created. The models right now might as well be ignored. The NHC said themselves that they really don't know where the center is. Recon will tell the story in a few hours. When the models get a good hold on the center, we should get a definite consensus. Cyclone1 (12:34 UTC -28/10/2007)


 * Intensity shouldn't change with only around 90 miles, although the track would. Models, that is. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  13:22, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Finally, 2007 is giving us something just to mark the end of October! Otherwise, We might have had an empty October. NHC seems to take it harmlessly out to sea, but the models don't exactly agree. Some models take it to major hurricane strength, SHIPS takes it to Cat. 2 within 3 days. Most models agree on the possibility of a Canadian landfall, some take it landfalling on Florida, some suggest as far west as Texas. Might also go as far east as Bermuda. So, there you have it, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, everything from Georgia to Maine, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, PEI, Newfoundland, and most of Europe are all within its possible striking zone. Might even give us some snow in S. Ontario if it travells west enough and becomes big and strong enough. There's even the possibility of a Canadian hurricane landfall. Let's wait and see. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:55, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Subtract Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Georgia-Maine. If anything, it's going to hit extreme southern Florida and head out to sea. Cyclone1 (16:21 UTC -28/10/2007)


 * This is a Tropical storm. I am very pissed with the NHC's handling of the situation. All signs point to a 45 knot storm. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  17:24, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * They have better equipment than we do so I don't think you can fairly make that statement but this is an extremely impressive system and I honestly don't see how this isn't a storm yet. With that many bright colors screaming through the IR, I don't know how the Dvorak readings have remained unchaged. Those are the best-looking 30 knots I have ever seen. -- SkyFury 17:39, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Noel
They heard you... 45 knots! Damn, are you psychic, IP? -- SkyFury 17:42, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * No, that's what the Dvorak looked like :P. Plus, you know, the voices told me. But enough of that. Convection is amazing. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  18:03, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Man, whatever you're smoking, I want some ;). Where are you getting the Dvorak readings? I don't know how to read those broadband IR pictures. -- SkyFury 18:21, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh, you can't do a whole reading with them, but for the most part, you can make a reliable estimate. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  20:09, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Well I can make a very rough guess just by how strong the convection looks, but I usually give a range rather than one number. -- SkyFury 21:06, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

Also, it helps to know what storms of similar intensity tend to look like, and this did look like a fifty miler. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  22:22, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks amazing now! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:57, 29 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy f#^k! COC made a jump, now it's north of Haiti! God, I just don't wanna know... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:32, 29 October 2007 (UTC)

I'm at school (PI here.. the IP fakir) and can't access any models. What's the chances of a Nova Scotia landfall, and at what intensity? I'm here in Nova Scotia, and it's quite unnerving to have a strong storm eye you. Pun intended.


 * Put "FSU Tropical Model" into Google and search. First site will have GFS, HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and MM5 (and some other really bad models like CMC). <font color="#000000">IP At School-like PI <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  16:14, 29 October 2007 (UTC)

According to canadian TV, the death count in Haiti and the Dominican Republic is at least sixty so far. So much for any hopes of a non-event. (and please, no jokes about sixty deaths in Haiti being a non-event).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:32, 29 October 2007 (UTC)


 * No, it was more of a sort of anti-non-non-non-event, if you're getting my drift 'wink'. Look at the consolidation of convection tonight; good outflow and strong LLCC. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:19, 30 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Hey, you don't have to be so callous! I mean, I know it's Haiti, where a paper fan is a weapon of mass destruction, but *still*! ;-)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:58, 30 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Woah! CMC goes crazy, making Noel plummet New York, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland, as a possible hurricane. Yes, I do think that looks like a re-Juan, with a more NE-angle. Most models allow it to strike Newfoundland. Talk about Placentia's nightmare! In fact, I've memorized the models' link: . If it veers far enough west, we could get a snowstorm. The CMC, GFDL, and GFS, which the NHC depends on, all allow the storm to make landfall in Canada, and all make it to what appears to be hurricane-strength. I really think Nova Scotians don't want a re-Juan, but if CMC is right (is that the Canadian model?) it could very well pull a Juan. Let's see what it does, and let's hope it doesn't hit the Bahamas as badly as it hit Haiti. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:16, 30 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Considering that it's expected to spend a long time (two days, I think?) twisting and turning 'round and 'round in the Bahamas last I heard from the NHC...--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:26, 30 October 2007 (UTC)

Actually, I'd like to note that the CMC was created for entertainment purposes only! And I'm thinking more Newfoundland into Labrador, then into Greenland and up the coast. Might give you some weather, I doubt it though. And the winds are pretty strong at Canadian land-fall. This won't be a re-Juan, at least in my view, but then again, there's always a chance... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:38, 30 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Dang the CMC's model is just nuts. Then again, Noel has been pretty unpredictable lately. :S - Enzo Aquarius 16:22, 30 October 2007 (UTC)

Is it just me, or does every forecast bring it eerily closer to a juan track? 71.7.217.94 13:45, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

Also, it looks like it's starting to lose tropical characteristics. Isn't that a bad thing? Being cold core and all, and able to intensify over cold water, that spells bad news for Nova Scotia, because every damn frigging update brings it closer to a juan track. off by maybe 100 miles. They say 60k winds by landfall from yarmouth to cape breton, but if it acquires extratropical status before then, there's a fairly big chance that the storm will be stronger than Juan, but moving much slower than Juan. Thoughts? 71.7.217.94 13:45, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

Exactly what I said will happen is being forecasted. Once it enters extratropical transition, the baroclinic energy will rapidly intensify it. 5% chance of Cat 4-5 they say, 10% for Cat 2, 10% for Cat 3. Look at the size of the monster.. Nova Scotia may be in for a fucking *sorry for language* big storm. 71.7.217.94 16:02, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

Lets start a betting poll. I bet $25.00 that this storm comes within 50 miles of the landfall area that Juan did, and within 50 miles of the track that Juan took. (50 to right and left of forecast track of Juan)

Latest advisory confirms my beliefs I've been talking about for the past day or two. 71.7.217.94 20:46, 1 November 2007 (UTC)


 * There is a page for this, if you want to... the betting pools... a sub-page of this one. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:56, 1 November 2007 (UTC)


 * "...SO THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NOEL TO BECOME A CANE." God I love Franklin. He's better than anybody I've ever seen at being professionally unprofessional. -- SkyFury 23:03, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

Hurricane Noel
...Which is right now. Noel will be a hurricane for only one advisory, because it will most likely be ET by 5:00 AM EDT tomorrow. Flight level 81 kts, and advisory up but not linked to on the main page. Found this info on Storm2K. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:06, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Pressure drop of 17 MBR from 5PM to 8PM advisory. 71.7.217.94 00:15, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

And, it looks like Nova Scotia is in for some trouble :( I hope it turns westward more and smacks maine instead! 71.7.217.94 00:17, 2 November 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the NHC track has it making landfall about 10 miles from my house. While I was lucky to escape any damage from Juan (It wasn't even cloudy.), I doubt it'll happen this time. I'm not looking forward to a possible 70 mph storm headed straight to my house. But seriously, why do things like this always happen on the weekend? Gah. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 01:55, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Cainer, NHC says 75k winds. I think that's fairly conservative, too... The size of the storm is comparable to Katrina; look for yourself. The wind field will expand greatly with extratropical transitioning etc... one hurricane force wind model shows all of nova scotia experiencing hurricane force winds.71.7.217.94 02:10, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Advisory update. Still Hurricane, winds notched upwards. Forecasted to stay above Hurricane Strength.71.7.217.94 02:49, 2 November 2007 (UTC)


 * The NHC needs to fix it's graphical model, states Hurricane all the way to Newfoundland and Tropical Storm by Greenland... :S - Enzo Aquarius 03:20, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

I hope it takes the route that brings it into the bay of fundy, to be honest. less damage to most of the populated areas. 71.7.217.94 03:31, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

But... I have a feeling it will make landfall closer to Halifax, pass through Truro, over P.E.I, through Labrador, and into greenland


 * Enzo, that is the actual forecast. There is nothing in the way of what is most likely going to be one of the more... interesting ETs we'll see this year. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:40, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

I find the newspaper insulting. canadian hurricane centre says it wont even be near hurricane force, with winds GUSTING to 90 km/h. All indications from NHC state that it will keep hurricane strength long after landfall71.7.217.94 10:50, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Update.. Noel still hurricane. Bad part? Forecast shifted to nearly directly over halifax.71.7.217.94 16:19, 2 November 2007 (UTC)


 * Woah. It looks like a re-Juan is certainly possible. Howvever, the tracks are shifting west, towards the Bay of Fundy. That could be good news for Halifax, but bad news for Massachusetts, which both GFDL and HWRF predict will see Cat. 1 force sustained winds. However, it could still be bad for Halifax. How would you like it if, you tune in to the TV Saturday evening to see where the rain is coming from, and it said, in the local 24 hr forecast, winds 120 km/h and rain 250 mm? I'd be scared, to say the least. Since the forecast drifted west, the USA could also be severly affected by the storm. Why, all the more reason to retire you with! Noel is already responsible for 120 or so deaths, and I fear the death toll could even rise above that of Felix. Retirement of Noel is certainly possible. Could also be a snowstorm for parts of Quebec. Usually, the bay of Fundy would zap out a hurricane pretty quickly, but with such a big storm and an extratropical transition expected at hurricane-strength, It might even have time to strengthen. It's not slow-moving at all, just enormous. That's why, adding the fact that it pretty much stalled over Cuba, the Dominical Republic and Haiti saw so much rain that caused all those mudslides. With this new forecast, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Greenland could all see damage from this storm. Let's see what it does, and let's hope people have not forgotten the misery of Juan and will be prepared for this. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:35, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

AoI - Northwestern Caribbean
The site, apparently, did not accept my post. If you can see it's there. Good day to you sirs! <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  16:16, 26 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I AM ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN FOR OCTOBER! THIS IS THE TRUE MEANING OF A [weather-related] MIRACLE! Seriously, it hasn't rained this much the whole year, and we haven't been in drought this bad the whole year. Isn't that just spectacular? Man, I feel good. Four days of rain! (Two and a half so far). Anyway, this thing is dead. But there are things much, much more important : ). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:07, 26 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Never mind, this thing looks awesome. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  11:15, 27 October 2007 (UTC)


 * If we see anything out of of this, it'll be well into November. -- SkyFury 07:06, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Hey, it's dead again! Waddya know? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  12:22, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * TD Sixteen scared it off. -- SkyFury 17:40, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI: North of Algeria
Yep, another Mediterranean subtropical storm. Really nice pic here:. Bit funny how the Mediterranean has had a more active October than the rest of the Atlantic. 71.7.210.87 22:15, 29 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Not really, all our storms have been stronger :P. Nice spot though, beautiful storm. Never liked their sat pictures, but they get the job done. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:21, 30 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI: North of Azores
Okay, look there and you might not see anything, maybe only a few clouds. However, nearly ALL models call for its immediate development into something with a pressure lower than the surrounding Bermuda-Azores high. Here's where the excitement begins. The models strengthen it and take it south-southwest. It could then strike anywhere from South America to the US to the British Isles. There's almost no telling how strong it will be, since it will likely happen weeks from now. Some of the models are often wrong, yes, but when they all agree, it almost always forms. Total agreement has been responsible for many of the storms this year. Sometimes they start to agree on development weeks in advance of the actual formation. Look at any of the moe.met.fsu.edu models that are current, and you will see that low slowly forming and drifting south. This is another large high-breaker, but given the right circumstances, it can develop. Some models call for TS status prior to its westward recurvance. Let's see what it does. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:42, 31 October 2007 (UTC)

Retirements At A Glance
It's currently peak season for the Atlantic and we've had storms from Andrea to Ingrid. My question is simple: What names do you think may stand a chance of retirement thus far? My speculation and chances are:
 * Andrea: 5%. May storm. Minimal damage, but indirectly responsible for 6 deaths.
 * Barry: 2%. Little damage and killed fewer than Andrea, although one death was direct.
 * Chantal: 5%. Almost completely forgettable while tropical.
 * Dean: 95%. Smashed Jamaica and killed 40+ total.
 * Erin: 20%. Added to already major flooding problem. 18 total deaths, half direct. Klaus-like.
 * Felix: 90%. Over 100 deaths in Nicaragua. Severe damage likely.
 * Gabrielle: 5%. Forgettable.
 * Humberto: 30%. Only one death, but going by USD values at the time of the hurricane, surpassed Diane and Lili in terms of damage, and both of these were retired. Outside shot at retirement.
 * Ingrid: 0%. Want to talk about your duds?
 * Jerry: 0%. Bigger dud than Ingrid, but odd location of formation.
 * Karen: SA.
 * Lorenzo: Some idea of damage would be nice here. (~4 deaths)

So overall, I think the retirements for this year will definently include Dean and Felix. Erin may also get retired if the monetary damages from it are high enough when released and Humberto may get retired if the current estimates are correct. Any other ideas or opinions? Jake52 My island 02:08, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I say Dean and Felix will definitely get the boot. Anything else thus far is extremely doubtful to no retirement period. - Enzo Aquarius 04:32, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I say Dean 75% (there have been much, much worse) and Felix 70% (same reason). Humberto 15%, Erin 9%, the others I don't see getting retired in a million years. If you want, I will say that these a wee bit conservative, and I do hope that Felix is retired, Dean maybe (since those were the nicest SOB storms I've ever followed in this basin, maybe scratch Wilma). All four of these could be conceivably retired, but I put the chances of all four at around zero. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 11:35, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I think Felix has a better chance of getting retired than Dean. To be clear, I think both should be retired, but Felix is Nicaragua's worst hurricane since Joan in 1988. I rank deaths higher than damage because deaths have a greater psycological impact than damage. Retirement is based on the impact it had on a society as a whole. I believe that storms with high death tolls have a greater impact on a culture than those with just high damage. This is why the non-retirement of Hurricane Gordon infuriated me to a greater extent than most people. -- SkyFury 19:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Just like Megadeth trying to get over Jethro Tull winning the "Heavy Metal" Grammy over them, eh? Anyway, being Cat 5 does not guarantee a retirement (see Emily; the Cleo that got the name retired was not a Cat 5 but a Cat 4 that did some damage afterward). Felix will be retired, and right now I'd say that Humberto is slightly more likely to be retired than Dean (if Jamaica doesn't nominate Dean for retirement, see it in 2013!). 147.70.236.93 21:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

I never consider deaths particularly important unless they total above 300. In the case of storms like Mitch, non-retirement is not an issue, on the other hand, storms like Wilma are also guaranteed to be retired. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:23, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * About Jamaica and Dean's chances, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Jamaica and not Mexico that got Gilbert canned? What I find stunning is that this season seems like a mock-up 1988 when it comes to the likely candidates for retirement. Dean was a Gilbert imitator (though not as powerful) and Felix resembled Joan (though so far not as deadly, but more powerful, plus Joan survived Central America). Jake52 My island 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'd say Felix will be retired. It killed over 100 people. Dean I'd say there's about a 75% chance. I think the only other storm that really has a chance to be retired is Erin, but that's not likely. What did Humberto do to get retired? I don't see it. Bob rulz 22:46, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Gilbert killed over 300 people in Mexico, I think that kinda sealed that deal Jamaica just was a little icing on the cake. The WMO started using drugs in the early 1990's. They retired Klaus, which killed four people and then they didn't retire Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 which killed 122 people in Venezuela, nor did they retire Gert, which killed 70-90 in Mexico. Then the whole Gordon thing in 1994 which is inexcusable. Gordon was nothing short of an outrage. Period. Other than those, the only other blatent non-retirement I can think of was 1955's Hilda. -- SkyFury 00:46, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You always talk about Gordon dontchya? That was kind of a [very large] blunder on their part. I think it has to do with being a very weak storm at that stage. It's almost like Jeanne (although she was retired). I hold my estimates, though, and plus or minus ten is applicable to Dean and Felix. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:59, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I lost a significant amount of respect for the WMO after I heard about Gordon and you bring up a good point about the intensity. I think Bret wasn't retired for the same reason. I think it took the Allison disaster to make the WMO realize that a tropical storm could actually do significant damage and that it wasn't just negligence. -- SkyFury 18:55, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

We're lucky something like that hasn't happened again. There might actually be a third hit around there; a lot of models are predicting something to go through there. This is a really sucky year weather-wise. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:10, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Third hit where? -- SkyFury 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You guys are wrong about Chantal, BTW IMO. It caused around 5 million dollars in damage in the area around Placentia Bay. Its residents are still angry the government didn't do enough. So it's not entirely forgettable. Thus, I give it a 3% chance. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:00, 17 September 2007 (UTC)


 * "Storm does less damage than Bill Gates does annually! Global crisis at hand!" WMO does NOT have enough money for all that crack. Third hit Texas. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:28, 17 September 2007 (UTC)

Keep in mind that the WMO can't retire a hurricane if no affected country nominate it for retirement, IIRC. I believe I heard Mexico was pretty poor on nominating...--132.211.210.107 23:07, 18 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Gert in 1993 was not nominated. Not sure about Bret. Gordon was nominated. Hurricane Klaus was nominated not by the U.S, but by Guadalupe. There was supposedly some damage to historic structures there but I don't really know the reasoning behind its nomination. Several Pacific retirements are a mystery too (Knut, Iva, Fefa, Fico). -- SkyFury 23:50, 18 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Here's my stats:
 * Andrea:5% or lower - The storm did nothing much, just a couple fatalitites and .77 inches of rain.
 * Barry:5% or lower -Unless a report comes out of substantial damage, I'd put a no on this one.
 * Chantal:12.5%- 5.5 million in NFL is not much, although its got a say in what it wants to do with the name.
 * Dean: 95-100%- Couple billion in damage, over 40 deaths, pretty much a retired name.
 * Erin: 15% - When and if the TCR comes out, the damage total could be substantial enough for retirement. We'll have to wait however.
 * Felix: 90-95%- Damage report will come out at some point, also 130+ deaths.
 * Gabrielle: 5% or lower - Pretty much the same as Andrea.
 * Humberto: 15-20% - If that 900 million was correct, we could've had a retirement here. Let's wait for the TCR.
 * Ingrid: 0% - First fishspinner of the season, Not a chance.
 * Jerry: 0% - Second fishspinner of the season, Not a chance.
 * Karen: Unknown - Hasn't affected land yet, and very weak
 * Lorenzo: Unknown - Wait till damage reports come out.

So far that's my stats.Mitchazenia 20:55, 28 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, here's my prediction.
 * Andrea: 6%. Off-season storm, killed 6 people, attained hurricane-force winds prior to formation, caused minimal damage, was quick to get an article.
 * Barry: 4%. Killed 3 people, affected reigons of Mexico later to be hit by hurricane Dean, near-direct hit on Wiki-headquaters as tropical storm, survived shear, tropical storm force until hitting an area near Boston, major rainfall on Georgia, dumped a little rain in S Ontario.
 * Chantal: 5%. Killed no one, caused nearly 6 million dollars of damage in Newfoundland, people affected by damage still angry, bridge destroyed, flooding in Newfoundland.
 * Dean: 90%. Long-lasting category 5 cape verde hurricane, direct strike on Chetumal City as Category 5, caused rising oil prices and fears of strike on Texas, caused nearly $ 4 billion in dammage and killed more than 40 people.
 * Erin: 22%. Major flooding in already-soaked Texas and Oklahoma, killed nearly 20 people, partially responsible for 2007 Midwest Flooding, responsible for nearly 20 more deaths and over 100 million dollars in damage, caused oil prices to rise, affected more than 10 states, tropical storm-force winds over Chicago, destryoed many cars and bridges.
 * Felix: 85%. Killed over 130 people, destroyed Miskito Cays completely, broke numerous records, Mitch-like, category 5 landfall in Nicaragua, nearly strengthened to unimaginable strengths had it not gone through an ERC.
 * Gabrielle: 3%. No one killed, Minimal damage, heavy rain around Carolinas, early fears of major hurricane, absorbed by strong low near Newfoundland.
 * Humberto: 27%. Killed one person, quick strengthening to Category 1, near-direct hit on Houston, flooding in Texas and Louisiana, half a billion dollars in damage.
 * Ingrid: 1%. Complete dud, nearly strengthened had wind shear not destroyed it, dissipating before hitting Puerto Rico, fears of a near-Floyd, no article.
 * Ten: 1%. Possible remnants of Humberto, action taken by New Orleans, near strengthening to Tropical Storm, quick to get an article, tornado in Florida.
 * Jerry: 1%. Complete dud, passed between Newfoundland and Azores, merged with storm near British Isles and Greenland.
 * Karen: 1%. Complete dud, near strengthening to hurricane status, dissipated before hitting Puerto Rico, original fears of hurricane heading for United States.
 * Lorenzo: 23%. Broke Humberto's record, hit area near that affected by Dean, 5 people killed, rain on Mexico City, quick strengthening.
 * Melissa: 1%. Complete dud, near re-Vince, uncertain early trajectory, quick dissipation, tied September tropical storm record.
 * Well, there you go. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:47, 3 October 2007 (UTC)


 * The storms i think that will be retired are Dean Felix and Noel if the latter becomes a hurricane as NOAA will Request Retirement for all 3 Jason Rees 01:57, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

You think Noel will be retired with the number of people it's killed? Bob rulz 04:51, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

For such a "quiet" season, we've had one hectic September!
Eight named Atlantic storms so far this month, and the initial NHC advisory/discussion for TD #14 indicates the possible arrival of Melissa on Sunday (30 September). Even the infamous 2007 had only five named storms in September... Whew! 147.70.242.40 15:47, 28 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You mean 2005, of course. Of course, that's an excellent point, one that also applies well to a season about five years back, where the record this season will almost certainly tie was set. I predict, however, that there will be some more intense storms even after the end of September. This isn't your ordinary season, that's a pretty much universal concept. And could all you anons who post so many things get a username? It's not easy to quote "147.70.242.40"! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:02, 28 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Some people cherish their anonymity :) 67.155.250.26 20:11, 28 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Then we'll just have to give you userpages and nicknames ; ). But a good point has been made often on Wikipedia that you have more anonymity if people don't know what your IP address is. You could also do what I did. Back on topic though, I don't think this season yet qualifies as "quiet" either ; ). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:42, 28 September 2007 (UTC)

I created my first account! <font color="#000000">PI <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:43, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Now, if only we can persuade the rest of them >: ) <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 11:37, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Quiet my ass. This season has been decidedly unquiet. We've had 13 storms and it's not quite October yet, two Category 5s and eight storms this September, which matches a record. There's been nothing quiet about this season. -- SkyFury 19:28, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The real reason for the claims of "quiet" is the lack of hurricanes, which can be explained by all of the tropical cyclones except two forming in high shear or close to land. Back to you, Eric. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  20:24, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * At this time in 2001, the Atlantic season had this exact same number of hurricanes and finished with nine. Also, I believe Karen was briefly a hurricane. It's impossible to know what October will bring. It was the most active month in 2005, with seven storms including the strongest storm ever measured in the Atlantic and three other hurricanes. Go tell the folks in Nicaragua it's been a quiet season. -- SkyFury 22:51, 30 September 2007 (UTC)

And with the SSTs not cooling down any time soon, you probably have a good point there, Eric. Currently, wind shear is also looking good for the Caribbean, which is the breeding ground of October storms. Cape Verde is starting to cool down, which is a sign we'll probably have some typical October storms, probably a few more majors still out there, eh? This has been your 7:45 news update on the 2007 False Accusation scandal. And here's our other forecasters with their predictions. Signing off, this is Internet Protocol. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:48, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * And now a word from our sponsor. "Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead! Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead! Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead!" Cyclone1 (23:42 UTC -1/10/2007)


 * "And now, our new product! First-on, ultra welfare relief! Apply directly to the congressman!" You are so damn good at that, always getting the joke in at the perfect time. You remind me of a great humorist who doesn't actually live to far away from you OR hurricanes (read the bit in his new book about the 2004 hurricane season, it's hilarious). Anyway, October doesn't look like it'll be a pushover either with this new 90L system coming onto the scene. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:47, 2 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Too bad most of October turned out to be pretty lame. So much for that active late season. Bob rulz 04:53, 2 November 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, and coupled with all the rest the season has done... No wait, never mind, it's been pretty cool, at least to my recollection. Sorry about that. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:41, 2 November 2007 (UTC)