Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Archive 3

==Retirements at a glanceEdit== So far, what are your Atlantic retirement predictions? I won't do Gaston yet, since it could be bad... atomic7732 18:26, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex 60% did quite a bit of damage.
 * Bonnie 0% Epic fail
 * Colin 0% Fish!
 * Danielle 2% Did minor effects on Bermuda i think
 * Earl 15% Minor effects
 * Fiona 0% Fish!

Here is what I say YE Tropical Cyclone 19:43, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex 86%
 * Bonnie 1%
 * Colin 0%
 * Danielle 0%
 * Earl 19%
 * Fiona 0%

Mine!: I usually consider myself a conservative, btw. Darren23Edits 22:02, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex: 70% - Hmmm...2 billion USD in damages, I don't see why, but to be on the safe side, I'll stick with a 7/10 chance.
 * Bonnie: 5% - What a fail
 * Colin: 2% - What a huge fail
 * Danielle: 10% - Very unlikely
 * Earl: 25% - Not much damage
 * Fiona: 4% - Overshadowed by her big brother Earl.
 * Gaston: 0% - What a very, very huge fail
 * Hermine: 35% - I really don't expect this storm to be retired, as if Texas hasn't seen this before.

Mine: Ryan1000 15:14, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex - 85-100% - Forget what I said earlier, I was wrong. Alex did much worse than what Dolly did, in Mexico, not the U.S. and it will probrably be retired.
 * Bonnie - 0% - A little damage, but no, it won't be retired.
 * Colin - 0% - EPIC FAIL. That's all I can say.
 * Danielle - 0% - A strong and elegant storm, but it failed to do signifigant damage; I don't see it being retired.
 * Earl - 10% - It wasn't so bad for the Carribean and I don't think Canada will submit this one; Juan was much, much worse.
 * Fiona - 0% - see Colin.
 * Gaston - 0% - It tried, but it's yet another fail.
 * Hermine - 15% - Ah, damage wasn't that bad, even Fay was worse than this thing.
 * Igor - 20% - This is official. Igor only was estimated to have done 100 million in damage. It isn't out of the question it could be retired, but I don't personally find that likely.
 * Julia - 0% - Beautiful hurricane, but because she didn't affect land, no.
 * Karl -.100% - WHOA!!! UPDATE!!! 3.9 billion in damage to Mexico? Man, that's the worst Gulf hit Mexico has ever seen, and I am CERTAIN Karl is gonna get it now. If it doesn't, I will have a heart attack.
 * Alex - 75% - Wow, I had no idea Alex was this destructive. As many as 73 dead on top of nearly $2 billion in damage in Mexico? That is definite cause for consideration. Look at Diana in 1990. Damage, casualities (and, ironically, landfall intensity) are nearly identical.
 * Bonnie - 1% - Here and after referred to as a rainy afternoon. Keeping with my custom, I never give a storm that directly affected land a 0% chance.
 * Colin - 0% - It tried.
 * Danielle - 1% - Gets points for style and getting a party started. Just how much of a party has yet to be determined.
 * Earl - 10% - Scared the piss out of us but was fortunately just an attention getter.
 * Fiona - 0% - Coming on the heels of a big hurricane isn't so great. It's sort of like hanging out with a rockstar: It's cool, but guess who gets all the love.
 * Gaston - 0% - I'm still completely vexed by this one. The sky was the limit for Gaston and it just vanished. A little dry air and a little easterly shear and it was gone. Nobody called this. The models didn't call it, NHC didn't call it, I certainly didn't call it. Just goes to show you that the only thing you can expect from the tropics is the unexpected.
 * Hermine - 15% - Those floods got pretty ugly down in Texas and into Oklahoma, but fortunately we avoided a repeat of Tropical Storm Erin three years ago.
 * To be continued
 * SkyFury 06:23, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

To tell the truth, I don't really understand why everyone thinks Alex will be retired. Eric, Diana was retired, but Gert 3 years later wasn't, for a similar damage and death toll, too. Alex hit only 80-90 or so miles south of where Dolly did two years ago. Dolly topped the billion-dollar mark and killed several people and wasn't retired, so I don't see why this storm should be retired. It's impacts were pretty much the same as Dolly's were, if not a little worse. Alex doesn't grab my interest enough for me to give it retirement. When Dolly wasn't retired two years ago, it taught us all a lesson-- the billion dollar mark doesn't get the boot from now on. 450 or so million in difference isn't gonna make the difference of a storm being or not being retired. Alex doesn't grab my attention enough to be retired, but Igor, our new Atlantic storm, very well may. Time will tell for sure. Ryan1000 20:46, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I have had enough. I really don't care what grabs your attention, and I'm sure not a whole lot of people do here. Can you please keep it to yourself, its getting annoying. And Dolly made landfall in the US and the damage was agricultural, Alex was destructive. 30 inches of rain in Mexico, severe floods, I mean, it deserves to be retired. And it was a whole lot worse than Dolly. So please, don't make judgements on so little information. Darren23Edits 21:28, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

What, is that why Barbara didn't, but Alma did? (sorry for going to the EPac), but damage is damage, Darren. Dolly's 1.35 billion compared to Alex's 1.885 billion-- it isn't a huge difference. I'm not meaning to offend you, Darren; i'm just saying that the facts are Alex only caused 530 million more damage than Dolly. I don't consider 530 million a big difference now. If this was the 1990's or 80's, then it certainly would make the difference between being and not being retired. But now, in 2010, it doesn't make the difference IMO. I am just enraged over the fact that it has to matter where that 1 billion or 500 deaths comes from to earn retirement. Deaths are deaths, and damage is damage. I am still fearing something's coming to the U.S.-- but Alex wasn't my big fear. I initially thought it would be when it was forecast to wreck Brownsville as a cat. 4 or so, but that ridge had to strengthen at the last minute. Igor is the next big storm I'm watching out for. We will get something worse than Alex this year. I have a bad feeling about that. Darren, September is far from over, and October and November are yet to come. I highly doubt Alex will be the worst storm in this entire year. The rest of this season will not turn out to be a bust. We have started on a hot streak in the Atlantic, and it's just not stopping with Igor. Ryan1000 23:20, September 8, 2010 (UTC) Jake52 08:19, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex: 80%. A sizeable death toll and decent damage. Either of these usually isn't enough, but both together may do the trick.
 * Bonnie: 2%. This formed in just the right area to make everyone sweat, but outside of a death, that's it.
 * Colin: 1%. Unlike Bonnie, the death really IS it.
 * Danielle: 0%. Beauty doesn't earn retirement.
 * Earl: 10%. Although the damage seems low on paper, it IS damage on islands, so the damage may mean a bit more.
 * Fiona: 1%. Colin 2.0.
 * Gaston: 0%. It did nothing.
 * Hermine: 10%. Nowhere near Allison level bad, but damage may be the deciding factor.
 * Igor: 45%. Canada may want this one kicked off.
 * Julia: 2%. It was certainly a thing of beauty, but it did nothing to really merit it.
 * Karl: 90%. 22 dead and the damage...oh my the damage.
 * Lisa: 2%. Julia, but to a lesser degree.
 * Matthew: 25%. High death toll, but I don't think it's enough...yet I get a feeling it may get it.
 * Nicole: 10%. It did do quite a number on both fronts, but it was not enough in my opinion.
 * Otto: (25%): DRENCHED the British Virgin Islands and did quite a soaker on the other nearby islands. We shall see.
 * Ryan, for the record, Gert of '93 was one of the more substantial snubs in Atlantic history (along with Bret earlier that year). And with epic floods spreading across Texas and other parts of the southern Plains, how's your 0% chance for Hermine looking now? I have to agree with you though in that as the storms have gotten worse, the standards for retirement have gotten higher (and better defined). -- SkyFury 14:10, September 9, 2010 (UTC)

There is no damage report avaliable for Hermine, Eric, but I wouldn't expect it to be any worse than Erin or Fay at the most. If Hermine does manage to put up Allison-like numbers, then I'm changing my predictions to 95-100%. It depends... for the time being, I will put ?? for Hermine and Igor. The WMO's rule on retirement is they retire a storm if it caused a big enough impact on society as a whole. I personally don't give a sh!t about the damage caused because one or two decades later, all of that damage will be rebuilt and no one will remember what would have happened. Loss of life should matter the most. The damage will be rebuilt, but the lives can't be. Gert and Diana were not epic storms for Mexico, Eric. They have seen much, much worse than that. Eric, the best example of an epic snub is 1985's Juan. 1.5 billion in damage, largely structural, and not retired? It still puzzles me today as to why that didn't happen, but it would be retired after 2003's Hurricane Juan anyways. The "monster storm" of 2010 is waiting... as am I.Ryan1000 21:12, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Juan wasn't the only case like that from 1985: Isabel could have also gotten retired. 180 deaths and about $450 million (the deaths alone could call for retirement. Felix did less and that was in 07) yet it wasn't and the name, like Juan, was next used in 2003, where it was retired. Jake52 21:59, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well hell, Ryan, both the US and Cuba have seen a helluva lot worse than Gustav. Do you have any problems with that retirement? Didn't think so. A storm doesn't have to be epic to get retired. Gert and Diana both caused widespread devastation as worthy of retirement as Juan. And I agree, deaths should be weighed more heavily than damage (although I think you'd give a sh!t about the damage if it was your house that was a pile of rubble and you'd just lost everything you'd ever owned). Diana killed 195 people, all of them in Mexico; that doesn't qualify as epic? Pray tell, what does? Juan killed 24. Diana wins even with any US-biased, Third-World-Sucks handicap that I know you're gonna throw out. Diana's name now rightfully hangs in the rafters. Gert killed 85 and caused more monetary damage than Diana officially did. Juan was a snub, but no more epic than Gert. Bret that same year was an even bigger snub. But you want to talk about an epic snub. Gordon, 1994. Period. 1,145 dead. That one is truly shocking. That was the one that erased any and all respect I may have had for the WMO. Unbelievable. Jake, the 180 in Isabel came from a landslide in Puerto Rico caused by the precursor disturbance. Isabel did very little damage while a tropical cyclone. -- SkyFury 23:22, September 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * No problem. Learn something new every day. Of course, when I saw the discussion about snubs, I was wondering when Gordon was coming up. Just wondering, Sky, but while on that year (1994), do you think Alberto was a snub, or was there a reason that it wasn't retired? Jake52 23:57, September 9, 2010 (UTC)

Here are my retirement numbers: (An asterick* indicates estimates based on future predictions of the storm.) 2007Astro'sHurricane 00:20, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex - 52% - This storm caused more direct and total deaths and caused more damage than Emily and Dolly, which were both close to getting retired.
 * Bonnie - 3% - Some minor flooding in the Dominical Republic and Haiti, passed over Miami, and the Gulf oil spill.
 * Colin - 1% - Born, died, reborn, killed one person from a rip current, passed near Bermuda, but almost no impact.
 * Danielle - 1% - Long-lived cat. 4, one death, but no tropical land impact.
 * Earl - 19% - Put the entire island of Antigua in the dark, one death in Canada and three in the US, but none in the Caribbean and minimal total damage despite an East Coast track.
 * Fiona - 1% - Cape Verde storm, no deaths and minimal impact, absorbed by Earl.
 * Gaston - 1% - A brief Cape Verde storm, no reported deaths or damages, but interesting track and possible flooding across Haiti and Guatemala and scared a few people in Puerto Rico.
 * Hermine - 5% - At least three killed and unknown damage, but could stand a chance if it causes massive flooding and tornado damage over Texas inland.
 * Igor - 11% - Cape Verde storm that stalled, weakened and verged on category five, largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded but no deaths in Bermuda but four in total and was the wettest intact hurricane to hit Newfoundland but damages were lower than Florence.
 * Julia - 4% - Passed near Cape Verde as a TS, but strengthened to a cat. 4, shattering many records.
 * Karl - 57% - Rare mini-hurricane that tracked across the Yucatan, strengthening to a major hurricane further south than any other Gulf storm on record, first landfalling Gulf major hurricane since Wilma, and similar impact to Juan in 1985 which wasn't retired, but very similar track to Diana in 1990, which was retired.
 * Lisa - 2%* - Tracked east toward Cape Verde, then became a very tiny category 1 hurricane in cool waters.
 * Matthew - 23%* - Not expected to become a hurricane, but major torrential rains over Honduras, Guatemala and Belize, and track is similar to some retired hurricanes, but the main factor will depend on the death toll and damages, and whether it becomes a hurricane.
 * UPDATED. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:18, September 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Jake, storms like Alberto are tough. Alberto was a localized severe flood event. Amelia in 1978 was very similar. While the impact was severe, most of it took place over a relatively small area after the storm had moved inland. Also, there's a lot of bias against tropical storms (see Bret '93). It took a disaster on the scale of Allison...in a first-world country...for people to finally accept that weaker storms should be treated with the same respect as hurricanes. For a long time, the popular conception was that a weak storm couldn't be that severe unless somebody screwed up, be it warnings officals or emergency managers. This grossly unfair attitude was probably the principal culprit in the Gordon snub. -- SkyFury 06:15, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * In bot the EPAC and AT the storms that have the best chance of being retired are Alex, Agatha, and Frank. Frank appear's the least likely as more costly storms such as Norbert got retired. YE Tropical Cyclone 14:09, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * And the Hanna snub too, Eric. I guess retirements can be just as random in the Atlantic as they can be in the Pacific, at least with storms that do hundreds of millions in damage. Also, YE, Norbert did not become retired, despite it's damage in Mexico. Back in the old days, not long after retirement was beginning, it wasn't so strict at first. Juan became destructive in 1985, as did Isabel and Kate, but none got retired. Also, Eric, you(and I) still wonder why 1955's Hilda didn't get the boot. 300 deaths and millions in damage, but not retired? Had it been, 1955 not only would have been the first season on record to have 5 retired names, tying 2005, but would have also been the first one ever to have 3 successive retired names:Hilda, Ione, and Janet. It almost happened in 2008 with Gustav, Hanna, and Ike, but thanks to the snub on Hanna, it wasn't kicked out. It also could have happened in 1985 with Isabel, Juan, and Kate, but none of them got retired. As I mentioned before, If a storm does heavy damage, but is localized, tornado-like damage(exclude Charley), then It probrably won't get the boot. If a storm causes widespread impact, like Ivan or Dean, then their chances rise much more because so many countries could request it. Out of the Blue, France requested Noel. It surprised me that France did it for that storm, as Cuba, Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and Canada all could have requested that storm. There was no reason for France to step in; I mean they didn't suffer anything, nor their territories; Martinique got only a slight rain shower from Noel's precursor wave, Klaus was more ravenous for the island. I can't tell what will be gone this year as of now, unless we get big damage numbers, like Ike or Gustav. This season is only peaking right now; it is far from over. Ryan1000 20:40, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * And Eric, I hope you're understanding where i'm coming from here. I would give a sh!t if I lost my home and all of my possesions, but if I don't lose my life after a hurricane makes landfall, that's all that matters the most to me. As long as I'm prepared and I don't die during a hurricane, I'm okay with losing my house. It will be rebuilt one day; however, the memories of my lost home will not be long forgotten. I mean, if a category 5 hurricane was raging towards Mobile, Alabama right now, what would you prefer-- your home or your life? I hope you say your life-- that's what anyone on the Gulf and east coasts would probrably say right now. Ryan1000 00:01, September 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * Indeed, Hanna was a snub. I know exactly of what you speak. 1955 was an incredible year. Hilda definately should've been retired but I think information about just how extensive the damage was was slow to come out. I think this was the reason for that snub. I'm going to have to disagree with you on 1985, however. Kate was rightfully not retired. Juan should've been. Isabel I think was actually a good call. That disastrous flooding in Puerto Rico was caused by the precursor disturbance. And yes I do understand where you're coming from but I think the way you put it was a little terse. That's all. -- SkyFury 18:27, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * So no damage was avaliable at the time of the meeting for Hilda? Argh, who gives a damn about the damage? 300 deaths in Belize and Mexico? That's the deadliest Atlantic hit in that area since 1931 at least. That's more than bad enough to get the boot. Also, I said it could've, not should've happened with Juan, Isabel, and Kate in 1985. I personally think Kate probrably had a decent shot of getting it in 1985; 700 million in damage was quite a bit back in 1985, but since most of that was structural damage to northern Cuba, which has seen much worse than Kate, It wasn't so surprising. Isabel was somewhat surprising, too. Eloise was retired a decade prior to Isabel and it caused similar damages and flooding to Puerto Rico, but I think it was called off the list due to it's damage in Panama City, Florida, instead. As for this year, I can't be entirely certain as to whether Alex will get it; Mexico has seen much, much worse than Alex, like Pauline and the Mexico Hurricane of 1959. Not every hurricane that hits the area Alex did will be obvious, unless if it's something like the 1909 Monterrey Hurricane. It was the deadliest hurricane in Mexico's history, killing over 4,000 people. I can't give Alex a huge shot, but it could be retired nontheless. I'll have to wait to be sure. Ryan1000 21:29, September 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * And Eric, about Gordon, I don't think the WMO retired it just because it was weak. The first example of a retired Atlantic storm that doesn't have to be strong to be nasty was Hurricane Agnes in 1972. The only U.S. landfalling hurricane of that year, Agnes was a very weak storm, but it killed over 120 people and caused over 2 billion dollars in U.S. damage, largely due to flodding in Pensylvania and New York. At the time, it was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history, and the only category one to be retired up until then. Agnes should have set a prescedent for weak storms post-1972, but apparantly, it didn't, at least as Gordon showed us. Eric, I agree Gordon is the best example of an epic snub. I mean, Noel got it in 2007, for less than 1/7 of Gordon's toll, and it caused most of those deaths in the same area Gordon did. I have little if any respect after the Hanna snub 2 years ago, and I don't want it to happen ever again. That was pretty much the last straw I have for them. Ryan1000 01:40, September 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * By the way, does anyone on the wikia want to update their retirement predictions? Knowing what Karl did to Veracruz, I think some of you here would want to give him a shot of getting it. Does anyone really care about this section in the forum? Or is everyone else waiting until 2010 ends? I also changed my predictions for Alex, BTW. I think it will have a shot at getting it. Dolly hit the U.S, and Alex hit Mexico. I am upset over the fact that both hurricanes weren't that far apart, but I think Mexico has a better chance of requesting Alex than we would have for Dolly. What I said earlier wasn't quite appropriate about Alex, but now I changed my mind, it should get it. Ryan1000 20:20, September 20, 2010 (UTC)

67.61.48.69 01:23, September 22, 2010 (UTC)


 * I give Karl a 30% chance. YE Tropical Cyclone 12:40, September 21, 2010 (UTC)
 * Increase the number on that prediction you made, YE. Karl is now estimated to have done 3.9 billion in damage, not 939 million. This is a recent update from the NHC and I think EVERYONE here thinks Karl will become retired now. Am I right, or am I just 100% right? I just know Karl will get it now. Ryan1000 19:51, September 21, 2010 (UTC)
 * Here are my guesses:
 * Alex - 55% - significant damage in Mexico
 * Bonnie - 2% - very minor damage
 * Colin - 1% - nearly a fishspinner
 * Danielle - 3% - very minor damage
 * Earl - 20% - moderate damage
 * Fiona - 2% - very minor damage
 * Gaston - 5% - minor damage
 * Hermine - 20% - moderate damage
 * Igor - 30% - moderate damage, tied for largest Atlantic hurricane on record
 * Juila - 0% - fishspinner
 * Karl - 70% - severe damage
 * Lisa - TBA
 * Lisa - TBA

So far, this is my latest update, changed from last time. I'll give every storm at least something now. Ryan1000 20:22, September 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex - 80% - Knowing it's damage in Mexico and elsewhere in North America, this one seems likely.
 * Bonnie - 1% - She caused some minor flooding in southern Florida and delayed BP's efforts to contain the spill, but she wasn't very bad, and probrably won't be retired.
 * Colin - 1% - He caused some brief rainfall and minor impacts to Bermuda, but just lke Bonnie, no, it won't happen.
 * Danielle - 2% - The surf from this beauty killed a few people on the east coast and caused wave action to be rough on Bermuda, but it won't be retired.
 * Earl - 5% - He caused some damage in the lessers and scared the sh!t out of the east coast, but he wasn't as bad as he could've been.
 * Fiona - 1% - Just like Colin, she briefly caused rainfall and the occasional downed tree limb on Bermuda, but no, it won't happen.
 * Gaston - 0.001% - While he didn't affect land while tropical, his remnants caused some rainfall in the Carribean. However, out of all of the storms thus far in 2010, this one is the least likely to be retired.
 * Hermine - 10% - She flooded up parts of Texas and Mexico under several inches of rain, but no, it probrably won't happen.
 * Igor - 7% - Soaked up Cape Verde under a lot of rain and passed right by Bermuda as a category one, but it could have been much worse than it was.
 * Julia - 1% - She dropped a minor shower over Cape Verde after Igor, but other than that, no.
 * Karl - 100% - Yes, definitely yes. With 3.9 billion in damage and 16 deaths, I'd be stunned if Karl isn't retired.
 * Lisa - 1% - She is an unusual storm by means of where she went and how small she was, but I personally don't see her being retired at all.
 * I'm not going to make a big list with percentages as most storms have no reasonable chance. I will say that I think probably Karl and/or Alex, with an outside chance for Igor or Earl if they're requested by somewhere in the Lesser Antilles or Canada. Everything else, not so much. My guess is one or two retirements so far. --Patteroast 14:27, September 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Not so fast everyone. Igor is the worst hurricane in Newfoundland's history and the Canadian Hurricane Centre is calling it a 75-100 year event, and it could cause >100 million in damages, and Stephen Harper called it the worst he's ever seen in Canada. Therefore, here are my predictions for the storms and updates

Darren23Edits 01:15, September 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex: 80% Upping after looking over data.
 * Igor: 55%: Not sure about it, but someone who has connections in CHC has told me that they might be requesting Igor to be retired because of the tremendous damage, worst hurricane since 1935 Newfoundland hurricane
 * Julia: 6%: Nice storm, no damage in CV though.
 * Karl: 88%: Worst natural disaster in Veracruz in recorded history, that should sum it up
 * Well, Darren, about Igor, it was a bad storm, but I don't personally see it being retired unless I get some real numbers out. And the 100 million in damage was solely from Bermuda. Canada doesn't have any numbers from Igor yet. Also, Karl was the strongest hurricane ever recorded in Veracruz, but the unnamed tropical depression from 1999 killed nearly 400 in that same area. Not to say at all that it won't be retired, but it wasn't the worst storm in the area ever known to be. And Newfoundland's worst hurricane ever recorded in history was the 1775 hurricane, which killed up to 4,000 people, making it the deadliest natural disaster in Newfoundland's history. That hurricane was basically 1978's Hurricane Ellen taking a track just a little further north. Igor is nowhere close to being in the 1775 storm's league, but it still could be retired. Alex is the second most likely canidate after Karl, but I still have some doubts as to whether it will happen... And keep in mind October hasn't even begun yet, so we still could have one or two more canidates. We should wait for that. Ryan1000 01:37, September 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Nope, there's another source saying it could have caused >100 mil in Canada. And I might have forgotten the word "recorded" for Karl and it is also regarded as the worst in generations. Also, can this change your mind about Igor? I do believe the worst storm in 75 years needs to be retired. Darren23Edits 10:50, September 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * If Canada wants Igor to be retired, go ahead. I mean, I wouldn't be upset if Igor becomes retired, but after the first two "I" names were retired in '55 and '66; Ione and Inez, respectively, we have had 5 more since the turn of the century, 4 of which were one year after another, Iris, Isidore, Isabel and Ivan, most recently Ike, I mean, we could run out of "I" names at this rate... And for Karl, I know it was Veracruz's strongest hurricane in recorded history, and defined as the worst in that city's history by some people, but survivors of the 1999 flood might say otherwise. And about Karl, why not just give him a 100% chance altogether, Darren? 3.9 billion in damage is incredible for a hurricane in Mexico, and as a matter of fact, Karl ranks as 4th most destructive hurricane in Mexico's history, behind Gilbert, Pauline, and Wilma-- and he is the costliest hurricane ever known to hit Mexico's Gulf coast. I mean, it was more than twice as destructive as Alex, and for all intents and purposes, will be a retired name. You should only give a storm less than 100% in these lists if you have any doubts to it being retired. Do you think there is any chance that Karl won't be retired, Darren? I don't. And as I mentioned, 2010 is not over yet, so we still could have one or two more canidates up for retirement. Ryan1000 12:49, September 25, 2010 (UTC)

Retired names: Karl, Nicole, Paula and Tomas HurricaneSpin 02:51, September 28, 2010 (UTC) Um, I don't see the big point of guessing that future storms in 2010 will turn out to be retired. Also, this kind of prediction would be better suited to the Betting Pools than here... But if you're confident about potential future storms in 2010 being retired, I can't say that won't happen... Ryan1000 03:09, September 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex - 60% Generally same with Dolly, but on the worse side.
 * Bonnie - 2% Scared everyone, but failed
 * Colin - 1% Failed
 * Danielle - 3% Got the Atlantic party started.
 * Earl - 15% Doesn't reach 200M mark.
 * Fiona - 1% Failed
 * Gaston - 1% Epic fail
 * Hermine - 10% Minimal damage, mostly caused by tornadoes.
 * Igor - 60% Pretty bad one as of now.
 * Julia - 1% Long live Julia.
 * Karl - 95% Yeah...
 * Lisa - 0% Seriously tiny, though that can't retire storms.
 * Matthew - 25% IDK about this one.
 * Nicole - 20% Thought to be much worse.
 * Otto - 2% Still active.
 * If the landslide deaths in Mexico do end up being attributed to Matthew, I'll add it to my list. --Patteroast 16:19, September 28, 2010 (UTC)

Me, too, but I would expect these deaths to be indirectly attributed to Matthew's remnants, like Stan in 2005. It, and the low pressure system, both caused 2,000 deaths in Central America. Stan only directly caused 80 of those, yet it did do 1-2 billion in damages... I will have to wait some time. For now, I won't include him. Ryan1000 19:55, September 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Oh. They got emergency workers in there finally, and now they're saying that 11 people are missing. Not 'maybe 1000'. Nevermind... --Patteroast 07:24, September 29, 2010 (UTC)

Also, only 23 of the over 200 deaths in the mudslide in Mexico were directly caused by Matthew... I would only give him a 20% shot based on this fact. Ryan1000 20:43, September 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Nicole only caused 151.9 million in damages, not 13 billion, well, not even close to 13B. I still think so far, Igor, Karl and Alex will be retired. And can we also just not forecast retirement for future storms? Thanks. Darren23Edits 01:02, October 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Oops it's Jamaican Dollars :P HurricaneSpin 02:39, October 6, 2010 (UTC)

Here are my bets:

Alex - 60% - Pretty major damage, although there is the possibility it will go the way of Dolly. Bonnie - 1% - Minimal damage Colin - 1% - Minimal damage Danielle - 3% - Strong, but little to no damage. Earl - 15% - Damage not extremely severe. Fiona - 1% - Minimal damage Gaston 1% - Minimal damage Hermine - 15% - Damage significant but not severe. Igor - 50% - While not extremely damaging, much of its damage was in Newfoundland, and Canada does seem to be liberal when it comes to retiring names, as they did with Hurricane Juan in 2003. Also, since this was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, it could also have a chance at retirement. Julia - 2% - Minimal damage Karl - 90% - Caused over $5 billion in damage. Lisa - 0% - Fishspinner Nicole - 15% - Damage significant but not severe

129.24.64.23 18:11, October 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * I still think it's bizarre that people say that Canada gives out retirements easily... what's an example other than Juan? Oh right. Juan's the only one they've ever requested. And pretty much directly hit a major city. :P --Patteroast 12:50, October 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * One thing about Igor, since Newfoundland is a sparsely populated area, the damage generated by Igor it's probably enough damaging for it to get retired, it's also the third wettest tropical cyclone up in Canada. For Bermuda, it was a bad hit too, about 3.28" of rain were recorded all by Igor itself. After researching I upped Igor to 60%. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 05:35, October 7, 2010 (UTC)

Well, HurricaneSpin, it all depends on what Canada wants to do with it. However, Bermuda will NOT request a storm that did 500,000 in damages; Igor could have been much worse had it not weakened to a category one prior to hitting. Igor was the worst Newfoundland hurricane in 75 years; Juan was the worst in 110. If Canada wants Igor to go, it'll get it. However, I can't say it will get it no matter what; the only storm that I know will be retired is Karl. 5.6 billion in damage and 22 deaths will get the boot. Alex is the second most likely, after Karl, and if Canada requests Igor, he's third in line. I(and anyone else) probrably can't guess anything else from here, unless we get one more bad storm or so. Ryan1000 11:36, October 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * I agree, also Igor could have restrengthened into a cat 2 when it made landfall.
 * Top candidates
 * Karl
 * Alex
 * Igor
 * Matthew
 * Nicole
 * Nope, Igor could not have restrengthened into a Cat 2 since many locations only reported about marginal hurricane-strong tropical storm force winds. Darren23Edits 23:58, October 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, I don't know who typed the above comment, but I didn't say Igor could have been a category two at landfall; I said it would have been much worse for Bermuda had it not weakened from category two intensity prior to hitting. I would call for at least Karl to get retired, Alex is likely, but it isn't impossible he could pull a Dolly, too. I can't say Igor will be retired; right now, I would give him a 50/50 shot, depending on what Canada wants to do with him. I don't want to go to the top 5 retirement canidates because every storm other than Karl, Alex, and Igor has virtually no chance, IMO. That's all I will say for now, unless, as I mentioned earlier, we get another bad storm in October or November. Ryan1000 00:56, October 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I'd rather think that Noel's retirement was requested by France because of the name is actually inappropriate – in French Noel means Christmas, would the NHC name a hurricane Christmas? Surely not. Therefor you can't take Noel for any comparisons.
 * So here are my candidates:
 * So here are my candidates:
 * So here are my candidates:


 * Alex 30 percent (Mexico might ask retirement)
 * Igor 60 percent (Canada might request retirement)
 * Karl 50 percent (Mexico might ask retirement)
 * all others: zero percent
 * None of them killed many people so the question is if they were destructive. Lots of dollar blown in the wind does not necessarily mean that the sorm was destructive. By the way, most damages in Canada were caused by post-tropical Igor so why actually it should be retired? --88.102.101.245 05:45, October 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, no. Igor was a hurricane when it made landfall, not a post-tropical storm, and the CHC(Canadian Hurricane Center) said Igor was described as Newfoundland's worst hurricane since 1935. A storm that rare probrably would deserve retirement, but I have to disagree with your overall predictions. Karl has the 90-100 percent chance here. Igor only did 100 or so million in damages to Canada, and only Canada can decide Igor's fate. Karl is a goner. Mexico will submit a 5.6 billion dollar storm for retirement, and it will become retired no matter what; it was the worst hurricane ever known to hit the city of Veracruz in recorded history. Alex is second in line; you can't really use Dolly as an excuse for Alex because Dolly was largely an agricultural event in south Texas, wheras Alex was a very destructive flood/wind event in Monterrey and Matamoros in Mexico; I mean, they'll probrably submit Alex as well as Karl. There isn't anyone else we can guess on as of now... Ryan1000 12:49, October 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Holy crap! Damage reports are finally out from Matthew. Did that thing really cause 2.4 billion?!

My predictions: So basically, the top odds go to Karl, Alex, Matthew, Igor, and Tomas. --HurricaneMaker99 22:16, October 31, 2010 (UTC) (updated 17:43, November 6, 2010 (UTC))
 * Alex: 75% - Costlier than Dolly and quite a bit deadlier too, not to mention in a (relatively) different area of landfall.
 * Bonnie: 0% - Just pathetic, even if it did make landfall in the US.
 * Colin: 0% - BOO
 * Danielle: 0% - Not exactly pathetic since it was a Cat. 4, but it was a fishspinner nonetheless.
 * Earl: 13% - Thank GOD this wasn't as bad as everyone thought it would be. Still, a smidge rough on the Caribbean; Earl isn't exactly the most likely name to be retired, but may I defer you to Klaus?
 * Fiona: 0% - Little weakling got sucker-punched by her big brother.
 * Gaston: 0% - Most fail storm of all time, period.
 * Hermine: 12% - Moderate damage, but probably not enough to warrant retirement.
 * Igor: 50% - Everyone hyped up Igor's threat to Bermuda; who could have known he'd be so much worse to Newfoundland?
 * Julia: 0% - Pretty much the exact same scenario as Danielle.
 * Karl: 100% - No duh.
 * Lisa: 0% - BOO
 * Matthew: 70% - WHAT THE . I think I just found a BF for Allison...
 * Nicole: 20% - Damage was pretty hefty, but storms have gone a lot farther without being retired, like Isabel, Juan AND Kate of 1985.
 * Otto: 5% - Even harder on the Caribbean than Earl was, but Otto never scared anybody to death. Besides, it was technically a fishspinner since its effects on the Caribbean were from the precursor wave.
 * Paula: 10% - Only preliminary though, we don't have a freaking clue until we finally receive damage reports.
 * Richard: 15% - Belize has seen a HELL of a lot worse (Iris, Hattie, 1931...)
 * Shary: 0% - BOO
 * Tomas: 45% - Haiti seems to have really lucked out on this one so far, and let's hope their luck continues. I haven't seen such a low death toll there since... well, ever. Then again, the rather significant damage to St. Lucia could earn Tomas retirement.
 * Yeah, I'd like to make an update, too.

Ryan1000 02:10, November 1, 2010 (UTC) Meh, I'm back, and here are my updated percentages for retirement:
 * Alex: 78% - With Alex's damage and deaths in Mexico, it appears to be one of the most likely canidates for retirement this year.
 * Bonnie: 1% - It did turn out to be an epic fail for the most part, but i'm nice enough to give her the 1% because she was the only U.S. landfalling tropical storm in the entire season.
 * Colin: 0% - Fail.
 * Danielle: 0% - Got us ramped up, but failed to do anything on land, so no.
 * Earl: 10% - He caused some damages in the lessers and scared the sh!t out of every state on the east coast from NC to Maine, but, as said many times before, it could have been much worse.
 * Fiona: 0% - Fail.
 * Gaston: 0% - Fail.
 * Hermine: 10% - Yeah, as if we haven't seen worse sh!t than this.
 * Igor: 65% - Knowing it was the largest Atlantic hurricane on record and Newfoundland's worst hit since 1935, we could see him going off of the list, like Canada requested Juan.
 * Julia: 1% - She never did anything to land other than bring a shower or two to Cape Verde, but the 1% is there due to her bizzare area of where she intensified. However, all in all, no.
 * Karl: 100% - Seeing Karl's damage and deaths in Veracruz, Karl has the best shot of retirement this year, and i'd be shocked if it doesn't happen.
 * Lisa: 1% - Again, the 1% is only there due to her bizzare track and area of intensification.
 * Matthew: 85% - Wow! I never thought Matthew would be this destructive. Allison, looks like you might just have a partner joining you in the TS retirement list.
 * Nicole: 15% - Yeah, right. Jamacia has seen a helluva lot worse than this storm, and the damage was caused by the precursor anyways.
 * Otto: 5% - caused some damage in the northern Lessers and got the party started for October, but i've seen much, much worse.
 * Paula: 5% - Scared us a bit in the Carribean, but all she did was soak up northern Cuba a bit, and damage was insevere, so no.
 * Richard: 5% - Yeah, right. Again, Belize has seen a whole lot worse than this thing.
 * Shary: 1% - Yet again, the 1% is only there because she unexpectedly became a hurricane, but yet again, no.
 * Tomas: 20% - Wow. Haiti really got off easy from this thing. Only 7 or so deaths as compared to hundreds means Tomas's chances of retirement are much slimmer than I earlier thought. However, he isn't completly out of the field yet... I'm expecting him to only do a couple hundred million in damages to Haiti or so, but his damage in St. Lucia could get France's attention for retirement... However, all in all, it could have been much, much worse.
 * Alex: 75% - One billion dollars in Mexico, this one's gone for sure!
 * Bonnie: 3% - Do I have to say why?
 * Colin: <1% - See above
 * Danielle: <1% - Never in a thousand years
 * Earl: 25% - Damages are very low
 * Fiona: 2% - See Bonnie
 * Gaston: <1% - Heck no
 * Hermine: 32% - Caused some damage and torrential rainfall in TX, but that's mostly it
 * Igor: 55% - Newfoundland will probably want to retire this one, but Canadian retirements are hard to predict
 * Julia: 3% - Gave Cape Verde some warnings, and that's it
 * Karl: 96% - Destructive hurricane, say bye bye to this one!
 * Lisa: 3% - See Julia
 * Matthew: 40% - I'm still doubting if the $2 billion was from Matthew
 * Nicole: 45% - Significant damage in Jamaica, but they may not request this to be retired
 * Otto: 18% - Some damage here or there, but probably not significant enough
 * Paula: 6% - Not that damaging
 * Richard: 20% - See Otto
 * Shary: <1% - What did this one do again? Oh yeah, almost nothing
 * Tomas: 65% - Probably the costliest storm in Saint Lucia history with $500 million, significant for a place that small, this one is sooo gone!
 * No one can know exactly how many canidates will have the boot from this year... I'm expecting at least 2, possibly 3 or 4, retired names. Definitely Karl. I don't truly know if that 2.6 billion was directly Matthew's fault, or if what Karl formerly did helped him, but if that damage is official, then either him or Alex(or better yet, both) should be retired. Igor is never going to be a "certain to be retired" name. I personally think that at best he should be at a 50/50 shot. 130 million in damage in Newfoundland and a few deaths could get it retired, but as mentioned earlier, only Canada can decide Igor's fate. It's all up to them for Igor. Mexico is all but certain to ask for Karl's retirement, and probrably will ask for Alex too. St. Lucia hasn't had a very good history of giving out retirements; Dean impacted many other areas outside of St. Lucia. I personally would only consider Tomas as a possible canidate; more likely than Igor, but I personally won't look forward to it happening. It was destructive, but as I mentioned earlier, why wasn't 1994's Debbie retired for 700 million in damage there(in 1994's dollars)? I so far would put my best bets to Alex, Karl, and Matthew, with Tomas and Igor also being retired should St. Lucia/Newfoundland request them. Everyone else, no. As I mentioned earlier, 2 to 3 names is what i'm thinking. Ryan1000 01:37, November 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Not even close, it caused only $200 million, 300 something in current terms in damages. Hurricane Allen caused only about $200 million in today's terms. So, a little factchecking has said there haven't been any more damaging storms than Tomas and any notable enough St. Lucia storms have made more impact in other countries. I will bet against a Matthew retirement, well, because I believe Mexico won't retire it, and the initial reports are false (probably all of the damages were from Karl). I believe the order is Karl is a definite, Alex is a very probable, and Tomas is very likely, plus Igor may make it, per the rumors I heard this year, and hell, if Jamaica is crazy, Nicole! (per rumors). Darren23Edits 01:57, November 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Oh, must have checked the wrong storm or haven't recently updated my knowledge on her. Even so, I don't think St. Lucia has had a good track record of retiring names; I mean, Canada didn't nominate their first one until 2003. Could St. Lucia nominate their first one in 2010? I personally don't think that is very likely to happen. I think Matthew will be retired, but only if that damage bill is correct; I have a feeling it's going to be like Ophelia in a certain way; an estimate well in the billions, but later knocked down to only a couple million. However, I have to disagree with you on what you mentioned on Nicole, Darren; Nicole rightfully shouldn't be a retired name, not only for the reason Jamacia has seen MUCH worse(Charlie 1951, Gilbert 1988, Dean 2007), but technically the precursor wave caused most of the damage anyways. Andrew's precursor wave in 1986 caused one of Jamacia's worst natural disasters, but because it wasn't named when it caused the damage, the name wasn't retired. Nicole should fall under the same category as Andrew. The impacts from precursor waves that later become hurricanes are not included in the named part of the storm's retirement, because it's like retiring the October 1999 storm that hit Mexico; it was never named, so they can't retire it. Same thing with Huricane Paul of 1982 PHS. 1,000 deaths from the precursor in Guatemala and El Salvador, but because it wasn't named when it caused the damages, it couldn't be retired. Karl and Alex are more than likely to be retired, and Igor's 130 million in damage could pull Canada's attention for retirement once more. Even so, November isn't even close to over, so we could still squeeze in one more canidate(Virginie or Walter) for retirement. Ryan1000 20:11, November 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Oh, that (St. Lucia retirement)is very likely to happen. Look at the reaction of public officials for crying out loud. I know Jamaica's been through much worse, but I know people who consider that name a toss-up. Look at Nicole's media articles. They depict Nicole as this severe storm for Jamaica, and I do believe for a country that small, $200 million is a big amount, big enough for retirement, maybe, maybe not. There is more media attention for Nicole that even Matthew. That's why I believe the $2bn is a false number. People don't depict it as that damaging. I don't base my opinions on damages, I base them on public reaction, and I am sure Alex, Karl and Tomas are definitely gone, trust me. Igor is a very probable, and all the rest, including Matthew, are a toss up or a probably not. (BTW, there is also a big chance a user in Wikipedia screwed up the Matthew damages). Darren23Edits 04:18, November 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * I'm not saying you're wrong, Darren, but for Tomas, St. Lucia has no real benchmark for retired names, or at least ones that didn't affect other countries, a la Dean of '07. Has St. Lucia ever retired a Tomas-like storm? Not from what i've seen. Nicole also can't be considered obvious either, because it wasn't as bad as many other storms in the past for the island. Even so, Dean, Gilbert, and Charlie caused lots of damage elsewhere, too. Nicole didn't cause severe damage anywhere other than Jamacia. The three storms I mentioned above were monster category 4's or 5's demolishing entire cities in Mexico, ect. Nicole isn't in the same league as those storms, and I don't think it's obvious to be retired, but it certainly is in the list of possible canidates. Mathew's damage will probrably go the way of Ophelia. Ophelia was thought to do 1.6 billion, but later, only 70 million. Matthew will probrably do the same kind of thing. With the damage figures and videos i've seen, I am 99.9999 percent certain that the 2.6 billion is a signifigant overestimate. Igor was very bad to Canada, but Canadian retirements are hard to predict; 130 million is severe for Canada, but I wouldn't want to say it's obviously going to be; if Igor did 2.5 billion in damage or so to Canada, then it would be more than obvious. Everyone knows Klaus of 1990; minor storm, didn't appear so bad, but the public officials on Martinique were screaming before Klaus's impact there. That pulled the French government enough to retire the puny little storm. I definitely agre Karl and Alex are goners, and I'm thinking Tomas and Igor could be should they be submitted by St. Lucia and Canada, respectively. I'm calling on 2 retired names thus far, and possibly two more out of Igor, Nicole or Tomas. Retiring all 5 seems a little generous to me, and, IMO, at least one of them shouldn't be retired. The new invest (94L) has hit 30%. I have one more thing to say(4 days or so from now): say hello to Virginie(hopefully not a severe Virginie). Ryan1000 13:08, November 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * I have a few things to say:
 * 1. (most important) Rarely should an event be given a 100% chance (for example, you don't know that Karl will be retired). Instead of 100%, I would say (like the NHC TWOs say) near 100%.
 * 2. (second most important) Don't name storms before they form (Virginie). The tropics can be weird sometimes.
 * 3. (much less important than the above two) In my mind, Colin was not an epic fail. I actually consider Colin more of a success than a failure (it came back to life, unlike Gaston).
 * 147.174.60.135 17:41, November 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Uh, 147, no. Everyone here on the Wikia knows Karl will be retired. True, it wasn't as bad as many other "obvious" hurricanes in the past(Charley, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Ike), but 5.6 billion(for Mexico) is more than bad enough for retirement. I assure you Karl will be a retired name. Trust me, it's just gonna happen. Alex, Igor, and Tomas(and to a much lesser extent, Nicole) are also on the retirement list, but not to the same extent as Karl. Mother nature follows her own rules, yes, but 94L is, in my book, future Virginie. It hasn't completly died out yet, and it still has a chance to make a comeback. And storms like Colin, Fiona, and Gaston are epic fails. It doesn't matter if it managed to come back or not; an epic fail is a storm that never exeeds minimal TS intensity, never signifigantly threatens land, and dies without affecting land. Other epic fails other than the three this year include Ingrid, Jerry, Melissa, and Erick of 2007, and Karina, Josephine, Laura, and Nana of 2008. Ryan1000 15:53, November 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * 1. Isn't it kind of presumptuous to say there is an absolute 100% chance Karl will be retired? Haven't you ever had an event in your life that you thought would undoubtedly happen but didn't? Also, these are humans that do the retiring, and humans can be unpredictable sometimes. There are a few storms that the WMO should have retired (Gordon '94 and Hanna '08) that it didn't. But don't get me wrong; I think there is a very good chance that it will be retired. I'm just saying that it's better to say that there is a near 100% chance that Karl will be retired (it allows for the slim chance of the unexpected).
 * 2. Whatever.
 * 3. I see that you and I have different definitions of what "epic fail" means.
 * (BTW, I am the same person, but on a different computer.) 147.174.61.240 14:39, November 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * You don't understand, don't you? The reason why I know Karl has a 100% chance is because you're looking at the 5.6 billion in U.S. dollars. Screw the U.S. value. I'd prefer to translate the 5.6 billion USD to Mexico's dollars. Do that, and you have 70 billion right there. When it comes to Mexico hurricanes, I don't care about what the U.S. dollar value is; I only care about their dollars, because Mexico doesn't use the U.S. dollar, they use pesos, approximately 1/10 of our value, but it's the same general translation in impact. If a monster category 5 hurricane hit the U.S. and caused 70 billion in U.S. dollar damage, would you not give that storm a 100% chance because you'd think there's a chance it won't be retired? That's flat out unbeliveably ridiculous. It would be certain to happen, wouldn't it? And very sadly, Hispaniola is very vulnerable to flash floods and mudslides from hurricanes. It isn't unusual for hurricanes to not be retired there for 300 deaths or so(although I do agree that a 1,100 death toll storm not being retired there is an epic fail on the WMO's part) but knowing the WMO, in my mind I knew that Hanna would probrably be snubbed like Gordon was, and it just turned out to be. Hurricanes are retired by the WMO only if they caused a big enough impact on society as a whole, which would allow the name to be requested to be removed by a country or group of people, and subsequently, that would happen. Hurricane Karl was the 4th costliest hurricane in Mexico's history, behind only hurricanes Gilbert, Wilma, and Pauline(all of which got retired, JSYK). Karl was the first major hurricane known to hit the city of Veracruz directly at that intensity. Veracruz is Mexico's largest and oldest port city, and is more connected with it's history than any other port in the country. The city has never expirienced an intense major hurricane like Karl in recorded history because it is generally too far south for GOM hurricanes to hit there, but when Hurricane Karl came calling, their first major hurricane was very well their worst disaster in recorded history. If you somehow think there is a chance Karl won't be retired, fine. I won't tell you what to think of him; I'm just telling you, based on the damage videos i've seen, and the reaction of public officials in Mexico, it's just gonna happen IMO. Ryan1000 23:28, November 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * I find it interesting that in Jeff Masters' blog post giving an overview of the season's highlights, he says "However, two hurricanes from this year are virtually certain to get their names retired--Tomas and Igor--and two other storms that did billions of damage to Mexico, Karl and Alex, are likely to have their names retired, as well." I'm surprised to see that he considers Igor a shoe-in, but Karl as only 'likely'. --Patteroast 15:20, November 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Dah, Pat, ask yourself this -- has WU reccieved reliable information on these storms? Absolutely not, because based on what they said, they don't know anything about what will happen. Karl was worse for Veracruz than Igor was for Newfoundland, and Karl has the shoe-in chance for retirement here. Igor can only be decided by Canada. Either they request him or not. In Karl's case, it's either Mexico requests him or requests him(AKA, they will nominate Karl for retirement, and he's just gonna be a gonner). Alex falls into the "more than likely" but "not obvious" case. It's not 50/50, but it's not 100% either. Everyone else, a toss-up IMO. Ryan1000 21:47, November 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Jeff Masters is right though. So what if it's worse, comparatively, a 75 year disaster of "epic" proportions is a bigger disaster than a $6 Bn 10-30 year disaster. So yes, and as I've heard, Igor is definitely going. I disagree about Tomas though, but with what I've heard, Igor is the only true shoe in. Karl is a definite. Tomas is very likely, Alex is the same. Don't get fixated on the numbers, there have been a few money makers who have not been retired. There are also other reasons why a storm will get retired. The numbers is just one (albeit big) part of it, public reaction and tragedy is another part of it. Darren23Edits 00:57, December 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * I agree with Darren, its less about the numbers (although they pay a factor in retirement), as Wikipedia says, if it becomes a name that everyone talks about as a major storm that completely ruined an island/state/province/city and is the worst storm in their recent history (or ever) then it is probably a good candidate for retirment. I live in Canada (far away from Newfoundland though), and we still talk about Hurricane Igor and it's damage everynow and then, it was certainly something that we will remember. I strongly think we will request Igor for retirement, not 100% though and it has gotten more or atleast as much news coverage as Juan. I bet the same goes for Tomas in St. Lucia, damage there was pretty extensive and even made the news here. Storms like Alex are pretty frequent in Mexico, so out of Igor, Tomas, Alex and Karl I'd have to say Alex has the lowest chance of retirement (Karl was the worst storm in Veracruz history, Alex was almost a Dolly repeat, just a bit worse). I still think odds of retirment for Alex are fairly high, the numbers alone are pretty large, but might not be enough for retirement. Yqt1001 01:14, December 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * On the main Wikipedia website, Karl's article was deprived of the (2010) because it is clearly a primary topic with it's name and it's also a pretty certain name to be retired. Why wasn't Igor's article moved, then? Igor may be considered a shoe-in by some. And Darren, i'm not going to disrespect your retirement opinion just because I don't like it(and for the fact it's rude); i'm just saying my opinion is I retire names based on whether the place it's affected has a good track record for retirement. St. Lucia has never requested any name to be retired before, so I can't look at the past and find a prescedent for Tomas. However, it was very bad for St. Lucia and there is always the chance Tomas could be a first one. Igor's only possible prescedent is Juan, which was the worst storm to hit Hallifax since storm 4 of 1893, but a hurricane that flattens entire rural neighborhoods vs. a storm that smashes a very big city; either way, it could be requested for retirement. And Darren, do you think the people of Veracruz have as much of a memory and sadness from Karl's damages and losses as Canadians do for Igor's damages and losses? Karl was the first major hurricane in the history of ever known to hit Veracruz as a major hurricane, and the worst disaster in that city's history. Igor was the first bad storm for Newfoundland in a "long time". Do people in Veracruz consider Karl as worse as Igor? If you went down there to ask them that, yes, they do consider it as worse, or further worse, and looking at Mexico's track record for retirement, it's a guranteed shoe-in for that. So what if some hurricanes have been worse than Karl in recent years?(Ike, Gustav, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) It was Veracruz's worst storm in history. Is the worst storm in the history of ever not worse than the storm of the century? Karl clearly was the most notable feature of the 2010 AHS. Even though Igor was very bad for Newfoundland, I think residents in Veracruz would consider Karl as worse, if not further worse than that. Have you seen what Karl did to Veracruz, Darren? Many places of the city were completly torn apart from Karl's ravenous winds and storm surge. Is 5.6 billion(70 billion in Mexico's dollars) enough? Yea, I would think! I know you depict Igor as a bad storm, and you think he's virtually certain to happen, but is he "more likely to be retired" than Karl? Absolutely not. Karl's gone. Just gone. Igor will probrably be retired(65-75% chance of it), but I will not say he's "virtually certain to be retired". Ryan1000 01:34, December 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Precedent doesn't matter. Let Tomas and Igor set the precedent! Just because it hasn't happened before doesn't mean it will not happen (Fabian). And technically, Veracruz was not directly hit by Karl as a Major Hurricane, Karl was too small and too far north. And unsurprisingly, Karl isn't really as media-significant as Igor, Alex and Tomas were, surprisingly, and most news from Igor and Tomas were about the extreme devastation. Yes, I have seen what has happened (Wilma is Cancun-Cozumel, Dean in Eastern Yucatan, etc). But think about how often does this happen? Mexico is hit every few years, great damage is...not really unexpected. But Igor and Tomas were unprecedented disasters, both the worst to ever hit those areas (something Jeff Masters got wrong for Tomas). And in many ways, Igor is Newfoundland's Juan. And that gives me to this point: Which is more talked about? Isabel or Juan? And take that to Igor v. Karl. Isabel did way more damage than Juan, but which is more talked about? Disasters are not relative to their damage total. A better way of comparing disasters is public outcry and emotion. And frankly, even though Igor only did >$150 mil., outcry was greater, and it will probably be remembered for a long time, probably longer than Karl. Darren23Edits 02:28, December 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ok, I have had all I can take. If you think Igor will be retired, fine. I don't want this bullsh!t discussion to go on any longer. Let's just respect each other's opinion's and move on. I am just saying that, you saying Karl has a "less likely chance to be retired than Igor" is kind of like you not using some common sense. Hurricanes Wilma and Dean were one of many hurricanes that hit Cancun and Chentumal in the past; those storms were just the first storms in a long time in which a hurricane of it's intensity and power hit those areas. Dean was the worst Chentumal storm since at least Janet in 1955, and, excluding Emily earlier in 2005, as it wasn't so bad for the Cancun area, Gilbert in 1988 was Cancun's last big monster. And Karl did not directly slam Veracruz, I agree, but the city did get raked by the southern eyewall of the powerful storm for a brief 10 to 20 minute period in the noon hours of September 17, and during that time, the highest winds and heaviest rain fell in the area, although the storm surge was actually pushed offshore in the Veracruz area, but onshore just north of the city. And Karl isn't in the same league as Wilma or Dean because, unlike Chentumal and Cancun, Veracruz wasn't smashed by any similar monstorous major hurricanes 10-20 years before Karl. Karl was regarded as the worst natural disaster on record in the city. Isabel and Juan? Both severe storms, but unlike Veracruz, North Carolina sees hurricanes all the time, so If Isabel wasn't retired, I wouldn't have been entirely surprised. It wasn't as bad as Fran, or Hazel, or the Connie-Diane-Ione trio, but it still was bad enough to get the boot, just like Juan did. Let alone, Isabel and Juan are not Karl and Igor. Karl was an Igor or Tomas-like storm for Veracruz. It was the worst hurricane in the city's history, like Igor or Tomas being the worst in Newfoundland's or St. Lucia's histories. You can't just say that Karl was less notable than Igor because it got less media attention; I assure you that the 5.6 billion in damage is a near-perfect estimate for the destruction from that storm. I do indeed believe Tomas, Igor, and Alex are also very likely going to be retired, but Karl is the main shoe-in for retirement here. Alex, Igor, and Tomas are all nearly equally likely to be retired(75-80%), but other than those four, i'm not expecting anyone else(Nicole and Matthew) to be retired, because I think Matthew's damage is way overestimated, like you said, the damage videos i've seen are not correspondent of 2.6 billion in damages, and it probrably won't be requested, and Jamacia has seen much worse than Nicole, and even if it did get more media attention than Matthew, I don't really think Jamacia will request her, in a similar way as to why the U.S. didn't submit Dolly for retirement. Ryan1000 20:25, December 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ok, I have had all I can take. If you think Igor will be retired, fine. I don't want this bullsh!t discussion to go on any longer. Let's just respect each other's opinion's and move on. I am just saying that, you saying Karl has a "less likely chance to be retired than Igor" is kind of like you not using some common sense. Hurricanes Wilma and Dean were one of many hurricanes that hit Cancun and Chentumal in the past; those storms were just the first storms in a long time in which a hurricane of it's intensity and power hit those areas. Dean was the worst Chentumal storm since at least Janet in 1955, and, excluding Emily earlier in 2005, as it wasn't so bad for the Cancun area, Gilbert in 1988 was Cancun's last big monster. And Karl did not directly slam Veracruz, I agree, but the city did get raked by the southern eyewall of the powerful storm for a brief 10 to 20 minute period in the noon hours of September 17, and during that time, the highest winds and heaviest rain fell in the area, although the storm surge was actually pushed offshore in the Veracruz area, but onshore just north of the city. And Karl isn't in the same league as Wilma or Dean because, unlike Chentumal and Cancun, Veracruz wasn't smashed by any similar monstorous major hurricanes 10-20 years before Karl. Karl was regarded as the worst natural disaster on record in the city. Isabel and Juan? Both severe storms, but unlike Veracruz, North Carolina sees hurricanes all the time, so If Isabel wasn't retired, I wouldn't have been entirely surprised. It wasn't as bad as Fran, or Hazel, or the Connie-Diane-Ione trio, but it still was bad enough to get the boot, just like Juan did. Let alone, Isabel and Juan are not Karl and Igor. Karl was an Igor or Tomas-like storm for Veracruz. It was the worst hurricane in the city's history, like Igor or Tomas being the worst in Newfoundland's or St. Lucia's histories. You can't just say that Karl was less notable than Igor because it got less media attention; I assure you that the 5.6 billion in damage is a near-perfect estimate for the destruction from that storm. I do indeed believe Tomas, Igor, and Alex are also very likely going to be retired, but Karl is the main shoe-in for retirement here. Alex, Igor, and Tomas are all nearly equally likely to be retired(75-80%), but other than those four, i'm not expecting anyone else(Nicole and Matthew) to be retired, because I think Matthew's damage is way overestimated, like you said, the damage videos i've seen are not correspondent of 2.6 billion in damages, and it probrably won't be requested, and Jamacia has seen much worse than Nicole, and even if it did get more media attention than Matthew, I don't really think Jamacia will request her, in a similar way as to why the U.S. didn't submit Dolly for retirement. Ryan1000 20:25, December 1, 2010 (UTC)

==Replacement NamesEdit== Still early, but anybody have any replacement names for the possible retirees? Here's mine:

Alex: Aaron, Aurelio, Ashton, Arlo, Axel, Avery, Adam, Anton

Karl: Kurtis, Kurt, Ken, Kip, Kelly, Kent, Kel, Keenan (I doubt it though) Jake52 03:40, September 24, 2010 (UTC)

Aurelio??? Really? atomic7732 04:17, September 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Kelly is a girl's name! Why bring that up? I have many other recommendations, but I would wait until 2010 is over until we make a big list of these names... Ryan1000 11:38, September 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * I will not even say mine since we know how WMO is with new names (Seriously, Gonzalo, Isaias, Paulette, Nestor, Dorian, Rina, Don, and many more?) Darren23Edits 01:19, September 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * I am upset over their stupidity for replacement names, but then again, this season isn't over. We will have one or two storms thus far, but October and November are just around the corner, and both months can produce catastrophic hurricanes. We must wait until this season really ends. Ryan1000 01:41, September 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * I personally like Isaias, Nestor and Dorian, but then again they had two opportunities to pick Dylan and skimped out on both of them. >:( --HurricaneMaker99 22:29, October 31, 2010 (UTC)

Here are some of my suggestions: Alex: Igor (has a chance for retirement considering it affected Canada and that it was the largest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded): Karl: Does anyone like these names? 129.24.64.23 18:32, October 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alejandro, Amaranto, Amedeo, Antonio, Arturo, Augusto, Alessandro, Alfonso, Alfred, Alfredo, Angelo, Antonello
 * Isidoro, Ignazio, Italus, Irving, Ian, Immanuel, Iezekiel, Ignatius, Ilbert, Ildefonso, Ioan, Iohannes, Ishmael, Izzy
 * Kai, Kaiser, Kaito, Karlo, Kaspar, Kazuki, Keaton, Kendall, Kennedy, Kerry, Killian, Kim, Kirby, King, Knox, Kobe, Konstantin, Kenny
 * A couple of recommendations: I personally don't prefer Arturo because it is somewhat confusing with Arthur, the english version of the name used last year. Isidoro is a no-no because Isidore was used and retired in 2002. One letter off could be quite confusing, and probrably not necessary for replacement. Ignazio is confusing with Ignacio, which was used in last year's Pacific hurricane season and will be used again in the 2015 season. Karlo is confusing with Karl itself, and probrably won't be a good choice for replacement. The U.S. government probrably won't prefer Kennedy as Germany didn't wan't the name Adolph to be on the Pacific list and Israel didn't want their country's name to be used for a replacement name, after 1995's Hurricane Isamel, and lastly, Ilbert is a bit confusing with Gilbert, which was retired after 1988. Other than that, this is a good head start, I suppose. Ryan1000 21:53, October 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Isn't Izzy a female name short for Isabel? BTW aren't Kim and Kerry female names too?
 * My list: Aaron, Abel, Adam, Al, Anthony. These are the most likely used candidates. Kai, Kay, Ken, Kennedy, Keenan. Ian, Ignacio. Names do get used in the EPac and Atl a example being Celia. HurricaneSpin 00:38, October 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * BehindTheName says that Izzy, Kim, and Kerry can either be male or female. I actually have heard of some males named Kim, such as smooth jazz saxophonist Kim Waters. Also, it isn't unsual for a variant of a retired name to be used. For example, Frederic was replaced by Fabian, which was later replaced by Fred. 24.117.97.9 04:05, October 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * Nice list, though I would say the WMO prefers to use shorter of names. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 04:20, October 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * There's another thing. If they retire Alex and Igor they can't replace them with e.g. Aurelio and Ignacio because of tbey must make proportional use of English, French and Spanish names. It is therefor pretty certain that Axel would be replaced by Axel. For Igor I don't know: Igor replaced Ivan, so Ian would be a choice as well as any other I-name but maybe they will stick to Russian names for I... what about Ilya? For Karl maybe Knut, Kai, was there any Konrad yet? Maybe Kuno? Konstantin might be too long. --88.102.101.245 06:19, October 13, 2010 (UTC)
 * Is there really such requirement? Personally, I think the WMO should branch out a little, and should perhaps include some Italian names, which is why I included several of them for the "A" names. Personally, I would choose Alfredo, Irving, and Kirby. 24.117.97.9 21:13, October 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * IMO, Fred and Frederic aren't really as confusing as Isidoro and Isidore, or Ignazio and Ignacio. I personally would want Aaron, Ian, and Kurt as replacement names. There are may others out there, however, and the WMO will decide what to do. Ryan1000 22:03, October 13, 2010 (UTC
 * Why not Ignacio/Ignazio? It has never been used in the ATL before. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 00:09, October 14, 2010 (UTC)
 * HurricaneSpin, Ignazio can't be used because Ignacio is currently in use in the eastern Pacific basin; it was most recently used last year, and the same name cannot be in use in the Atlantic and Pacific at the same time. I typed this exact thing above as well. I'm sorry if you didn't notice what I mentioned above about this but that's just how things work with the WMO. Ignazio is too closely related to Ignacio to be used as a replacement name. Ian would probrably be my best choice for Igor, and Aaron would be my personal choice for Alex. I don't know what Karl will have as a replacement; Kurt wouldn't be my best choice, but it's a possible reccomendation nontheless. Ryan1000 01:34, October 14, 2010 (UTC)
 * HurricaneSpin, Ignazio can't be used because Ignacio is currently in use in the eastern Pacific basin; it was most recently used last year, and the same name cannot be in use in the Atlantic and Pacific at the same time. I typed this exact thing above as well. I'm sorry if you didn't notice what I mentioned above about this but that's just how things work with the WMO. Ignazio is too closely related to Ignacio to be used as a replacement name. Ian would probrably be my best choice for Igor, and Aaron would be my personal choice for Alex. I don't know what Karl will have as a replacement; Kurt wouldn't be my best choice, but it's a possible reccomendation nontheless. Ryan1000 01:34, October 14, 2010 (UTC)

What about this? Kurt would definitely be my top pick for replacing Karl; a little Nirvana tribute, anyone? --HurricaneMaker99 20:42, October 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * Matthew: Mark, Mickey, Manny, Maxwell, Moe, Monty, Mort, Maurice
 * Tomas: Teodoro, Theo, Taffy, Taylor, Terence, Toby, Trevor, Tucker, Truman

Some of these have been mentioned already, they're just my top picks. With replacement names, it's important to look at what region was affected and the theme of that particular name slot, i.e a Spanish name is more likely to be replaced with a Spanish name (ex: Juan with Joaquin in 2003). And after what happened in 2007, I wouldn't put it past the French to stick their nose into as many of these as possible. With all this in mind, I think the strongest candidates for each name are Alejandro or Antonio, Kurt, Maurice, and Tristan. I don't think any "Ken-" names will be chosen because Kenneth is used in the East Pacific. For this reason and because there is such a shortage of "K" names, HurricaneMaker, I think Kurt is a strong candidate, despite the fact that it sounds a lot like Kirk, which replaced Keith after the 2000 season and was on the '06 list but wasn't used because that season was so inactive. However, it also wouldn't surprise me if they chose something weird..maybe a German name to keep the theme (Karsten possibly). For "M", it's a toss-up. Maxwell is out because Max is used in the East Pacific. I picked Maurice because I'm a cynic and the French have to have the last word in everything and it's also common in English-speaking countries, particularly in the Caribbean. However, it would not surprise me if Mario or Manolo are chosen because they are Spanish names. Pretty much nothing would surprise me as far as "M" is concerned. There was a bit of a controversy when Matthew was chosen to replace Mitch in 1999 because it is a Biblical name, despite the fact that Peter, Michael and Isaac in ATL, and John, Daniel and Paul in EPac were already in use and David was used in 1979. As I doubt that negative reaction is something the WMO would like to repeat, I can't see Mark being chosen (however that didn't stop Isaias from being chosen last spring). Mark's similarity to Marco, which is in use, also works against it. I picked Tristan to replace Tomas because it is common in English, French and Spanish (and would therefore appease the French). However, it wouldn't surprise me if Teodoro or Theo is chosen. Tobias would also be a good choice as it doesn't have the American bias that some of the others have (remember, the WMO chose Dorian over Derek, Daryl and Darren...it would seem there are some Oscar Wilde fans in the WMO) -- SkyFury 22:38, December 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex: Alejandro, Antonio, Armando, Adam, Anthony, Arnold, Austin
 * Karl: Kenny, Kent, Kurt, Kendall, Kelly, Karsten
 * Matthew: Mark, Mario, Marshall, Mason, Maurice, Mel, Milton, Manolo
 * Tomas: Teodoro, Theo, Tristan, Ted, Taylor, Terence, Tito, Tobias, Tim/Timothy, Travis, Trent, Tyler
 * Well, I was thinking Kurt could be a possible canidate, but of course, I was thinking someone else would say Kirk is confusing with that. The WMO had a joke of a naming system after 2007; as of what I know, you took that into the talk page of that year, and I would have agreed with you, if I was on Wikipedia at that time. I think a good choice for Karl would be Kenny(hopefully no confusion with Kenneth or Keith), if not maybe Kent or Kip. I don't think that Matthew will go, because I personally don't think he will be retired. I have to agree with Darren23 on Matthew. Not only did Karl probrably do all of the damage in Veracruz, but because Nicole got more attention than Matthew, and looking at the damage figures i've seen, I strongly believe the 2.6 billion is way, way, overestimated. It's like how some users on Wikipedia thought 2005's Ophelia would be retired. It was thought to do 1.6 billion, but in reality, it's actual damage ws only about 1/23 of the estimate, at 70 million, which called off any and all discussion on it's retirement. Matthew will probrably go the way of Ophelia. I don't think Jamacia will request Nicole, but it isn't out of the question at all... And as Darren mentioned, Igor and Tomas are very likely to be requested by Newfoundland and St. Lucia, respectively. They will set a prescedent if they do happen to go. To be safe, I would say Karl and/or Alex with Aaron or Antonello and Kenny or Kip, and If Igor and Tomas go, I would want Ian or Iggy to be Igor's replacement(The WMO could have replaced Isidore, Ivan or Ike with Ian or Iggy, but they didn't), but I think they could do that this time, and Tomas... well, i'm thinking Tristan, as you mentioned, Eric, but Tess, Theodore, and Thorton are also possible replacement names, ones that I would prefer, at least. Ryan1000 02:27, December 4, 2010 (UTC)

==Retirements at a glance, part 2Edit== Well, the season's long past over. I think the activity on the year of 2010 will be one of the lowest since ever, but because our last section got quite large, and the year's well done, I made a new section here for everyone's final calls on the retirements of 2010. If you want to wait until the TCR's are issued, that's fine. Anyways, here's mine: These are my final calls on 2010; I will update Matthew, or other storms, as soon as the actual damages are out. In short, I'll just say this: Ryan1000 23:04, December 12, 2010 (UTC)
 * Alex - 75% - It may appear likely, but he had close shades of Dolly, which is what keeps him from a near perfect shot.
 * Bonnie - 1% - Just for the U.S. landfall, but it ain't gonna happen.
 * Colin - 0% - Fail.
 * Danielle - 0% - Eh, it was much stronger than Colin, but either way, it didn't affect land.
 * Earl - 10% - As said many times before, it could have been much worse.
 * Fiona - 0% - Fail.
 * Gaston - 0% - Fail.
 * Hermine - 10% - Yeah, right. Again, even Texas has seen much worse.
 * Igor - 70% - Canada has the full case on this one, but Canadian retirements are hard to call. It still seems rather likely, though...
 * Julia - 1% - The occasional rain shower on Cape Verde, but just like Danielle, no.
 * Karl - 99% - It may appear obvious, but knowing Mexico, there is a very slight chance it won't happen; however, the chances of Karl not being retired are too slim for me to consider.
 * Lisa - 0% - I cannot use "Hurricane Lisa" and "will be retired" in the same sentince, period.
 * Matthew - ?? - IDK what I should say about Matthew; I still think the 2.6 billion is signifigantly overestimated.
 * Nicole - 30% - Extensive damages in Jamacia, but I personally don't think they'll request her.
 * Otto - 1% - This thing never really threatened anyone, but he got the October party started.
 * Paula - 1% - Scared us in the Carribean, but she wasn't bad even by Cuba's standards.
 * Richard - 7% - Some damage here or there in Belize, but they have seen a helluva lot worse.
 * Shary - 0% - See Lisa.
 * Tomas - 70% - Haiti lucked out, but St. Lucia didn't, and it might have just been the worst hurricane in their history, so yeah, he's in the list of likely retirees.
 * "Will be retired" - Karl.
 * "Probrably will be retired" - Alex, Igor, Tomas.
 * "Possibly could be retired" - Matthew, Nicole.
 * "Probrably won't be retired" - Earl, Hermine.
 * "Won't be retired" - Everyone else.
 * OK, here are my (thought out) final numbers:
 * Alex: 80%. The damage and death toll almost guarantee its retirement, but the problem is that Gert wasn't retired, and this one had shades of Gert.
 * Bonnie: 4%. It drove a bit of fear into people about the oil spill, but as Olga in 07 proved, human intervention into nature ≠ retirement.
 * Colin: 1%. My idea is that deaths = not a 0% chance, but just a 1% chance.
 * Danielle: 1%. See Colin.
 * Earl: 10%. It was quite a bad looking storm, but the Caribbean came off rather well in the end.
 * Fiona: 0%. Nothing happened.
 * Gaston: 0%. Sorry, which one was Gaston? (end sarcasm)
 * Hermine: 10%. Oh it was damaging, but the bulk of that was from its days in the EPac.
 * Igor: 60%. I don't necessarily think it's a guaranteed goner, but it's likely.
 * Julia: 2%. It was strong and record-breaking, but these don't garner retirement.
 * Karl: 98%. Only Mexico's track record keeps this from 100%.
 * Lisa: 0%. Like with Julia, unusual doesn't mean gone.
 * Matthew: 75%. I'm very iffy here on this one. I'm keeping it here tentatively.
 * Nicole: 35%. Jamaica got hammered by this one, but I doubt it gets it.
 * Otto: 35%. For some reason, despite most of its damage being from the predecessor, I can't read a story about an island's "worst flooding ever" and think "no retirement" at the same time. I get rather Klaus-ish vibes here, and that's why I'm bumping it a little high.
 * Paula: 1%. See Bonnie.
 * Richard: 5%. Nearly all of the (little) damage this storm did was agricultural.
 * Shary: 0%. No real impact.
 * Tomas: 75%. St. Lucia did not come away from this one well at all. It's a likely shot.
 * Gone: Alex, Igor, Karl, Tomas
 * Maybe: Matthew, Nicole, Otto
 * Staying: Everyone else.
 * Jake52 19:31, December 13, 2010 (UTC)

Um, is anyone still here? I don't know if everyone has abandoned Hurricane Wiki for now, but the RA IV meeting is comming up in two months(March 8-12, Georgetown, Cayman Islands). The TCR's will take some time to be issued, but there isn't a whole lot of time for us to make our final calls. I just want this forum to have one last surge of activity, but we don't have much time left... Ryan1000 20:47, January 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't really see a need to..we have pretty much fought over it for a few months and then came to a conclusion..I guess I'll make my predictions then,
 * Alex: 75% - Less damage and more death than Dolly, makes it likely that Alex will be retired.
 * Bonnie: 2% - Only US landfall, only tropical cyclone I've been in (not many north of the great lakes :P ), nothing much.
 * Colin: 1% - "My idea is that deaths = not a 0% chance, but just a 1% chance." - Jake52
 * Danielle: 1% - First major of the year, though completely fish, see Colin.
 * Earl: 15% - As always media always overhypes about major hurricanes getting close to the US, classic example here, not much really came from this storm.
 * Fiona: 0% - Nothing much came from this.
 * Gaston: 0% - See Fiona.
 * Hermine: 5% - Texas has seen way way worse.
 * Igor: 50% - Newfoundland did get a major blow (for what it usually gets, if this same amount of damage happened in Mexico, Igor wouldn't have much of a chance) and the media here still talks about Igor.
 * Julia: 1% - Gets credit considering it exploded over water that usually wouldn't support more than a cat. 1
 * Karl: 99% - Never say never, but very likely.
 * Lisa: 0% - Reminds me of Shary, a storm that wasn't expected to get hurricane status but it did.
 * Mathew: 50% - Depends if the damage figures change.
 * Nicole: 30% - Jamaica did get hit, but I think they might be over exaggerating.
 * Otto: 25% - I have to agree with Jake here.
 * Paula: 1% - The storm was so small that it barely brushed Cancun and by the time it reached Cuba it was almost nothing.
 * Richard: 5% - I would've expected Richard to do worse considering it had 100mph winds at landfall.
 * Shary: 0% - Almost hit Bermuda, missed it, shocked us by becoming a hurricane, nothing still.
 * Tomas: 40-60% - I can't make up my mind, and I don't really have much time too, but St Lucia got hit pretty hard, so it's hard to tell.

According to my predictions it puts Alex and Karl as the top for retirement but that doesnt seem right...might have to revise them when I have time. Yqt1001 17:33, January 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh, um, Yqt1001, you forgot Hermine BTW. Just a reminder... Ryan1000 20:12, January 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoops...rushing to much then. Thanks. Yqt1001 21:59, January 10, 2011 (UTC)

==Replacement names, part 2Edit== This hasn't been discussed in a while, however, I think it should be time to discuss replacement names for the potential retirement candidates.

Here are some options: So, how are these names?
 * Alex - Alessandro, Agustino, Alejandro, Armando, Antonello, Antonio, Amedeo, Alfred, Alfredo, Adam, Anthony, Austin, Andros, Angelo, Abbott, Abe, Abraham, Ackley, Agosto, Allighiero, Ashton, Ari, Ali, Arnold, Aurelio.
 * Igor - Italus, Iliaro, Italo, Ian, Immanuel, Iohannes, Ioan, Ignatius, Indigo, Ingram, Izzy, Ivor, Izwald, Irving.
 * Karl - Kent, Kenton, Kenny, Kendall, Kim, Kelly, Kirby, Kurt, Kaiser, Kane, King, Kasper, Keenan, Kel, Kerry, Killian, Knox, Kobe.
 * Matthew - Morton, Milton, Marlin, Mario, Manfredo, Malcolm, Macy, Manlio, Manny, Marcello, Marcellino, Marengo, Mariano, Marino, Martin, Martino, Mars, Marquis, Massimo, Mateo, Maurizo, Michelangelo, Miguel, Muhammad, Milo, Myron, Mason, Miles, Modesto, Monroe, Montgomery, Mortimer, Murgatroyd, Mark, Monty, Mike, Murphy.
 * Tomas - Theodore, Tacito, Tim, Timmy, Timothy, Teodoro, Teofilo, Theo, Terence, Trent, Tate, Tito, Taylor, Thorello, Thornton, Tex, Thales, Timoteo, Tino, Titanus, Tiziano, Toby, Tal, Tyrone, Travis, Tyler.
 * I personally think that a couple of these names could be used for replacements, but the only problem is that, knowing the WMO, they could be completly random with replacements(I mean, why in the hell would they pick Dorian for Dean's replacement? There were several other better "D" names avaliable...). I personally do not find Matthew being retired, but there is an outside chance it could happen... The initial damages are most likely false. I would wait until we do see our retirees this March, at the same time it was last year. We don't have a ton of time left, but i just hope the WMO uses a bit of "common sense" this year. Ryan1000 21:08, January 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * I will say that if they request Alex the most probable for replacement will be Armando or Angelo,for Igor the most probable is Ian for Karl the most probable will be kenny it is a very popular name in Mexico if my country like some people here want Matthew to be gone the most probable candidates are Mario or Miguel
 * and Nicole even if i don´t think so will be Nan or Nuria
 * and Nicole even if i don´t think so will be Nan or Nuria