Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season

Future Start
Same with ATL and EPac. Betting pools for the WPac and NIO will be made once 2013 is over. Ryan1000 01:08, October 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here are my predictions for the Western Pacific (using JMA categories):

60 total depressions, 33 total tropical storms, 27 total severe tropical storms, 21 total typhoons (11 strong, 6 intense, and 4 violent), and an ACE of 450 (give or take 25). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:51, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * 60 depressions? Are you trying to predict the most active season in world history or something?! I don't think we will get even close to that number of depressions. Heck, we might not even reach 40. Anyway, time for my predictions, which are meant to be realistic as I can: 35 total depressions, 28 total tropical storms, 23 total severe tropical storms, 16 total typhoons (10 strong, 5 intense, and 2 violent). Steven  09876  ✉  05:34, January 4, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Vongfong
Another one in WPac, this one should follow in Phanfone's footsteps in the long run and will probably become a major typhoon in 3 or 4 days. Ryan1000 14:56, October 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * This one's ramping up fast, it's already a typhoon by JTWC and forecast to be a strong cat 4, maybe even cat 5, in 5 days or so. Japan definitely needs to watch out for this one, especially if Phanfone misses. Ryan1000 12:38, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it could be a large threat to Japan in the long run. It might be an epic winning C5 in the near future but Japan needs to prepare for Vongfong. In fact, the name "Vongfong" reminds me of some doomsday storm for some reason.-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:59, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

Typhoon Vongfong (Ompong)
Where is everybody? This could be a very powerful storm in a few days and threaten land, Simon may have looked nice but it's weakening quickly now and it may not even reach Baja. Ryan1000 10:30, October 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * This forum was mainly active because of Andrew, but lately he's too busy to have time for the wiki. I guess the rest of us don't really care about this basin. :/ Anyways, Vongfong is 65 knots/75 mph/970 mbars, and due to the amount of time it has over water we could see something really powerful from this system. I also have a bad feeling about Vongfong. Stay tuned...-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:01, October 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I understand that this thing just hit the Marianas and poses a threat to Japan in the long run, but on a non-serious note, I feel the need to point out that Vongfong is quite possibly the greatest TC name of all time. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:04, October 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree! The name sounds very freaking epic. That's probably why it reminded me of a doomsday storm (check out one of my previous posts above). It's got to be, the most awesome storm name of all time.-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:13, October 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now 105 mph (90 by JMA) and 950 mbars. Still has a chance at becoming a cat 5, but it'll probably pull a Halong and weaken substantially before hitting Japan. Ryan1000 01:22, October 7, 2014 (UTC)

This thing is exploding! 155 knots current, expected to strengthen to 165 KNOTS!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  22:29, October 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * This is a REALLY INSANE system!!! It's now the strongest storm worldwide since Haiyan! Japan might need to really prepare unless it weakens significantly...-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:14, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Damn you Vongfong, you stole Genny's 1st place crown. :P Now named Ompong by PAGASA, but it'll likely turn north before hitting the Philippines and head for southern Japan like his predecesor Phanfone did. Pressure fell to 900 mbars with this explosive intensification, but it'll weaken substantially before hitting Japan. Ryan1000 00:45, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * For the record, "Super Typhoon" is a label only used by the JTWC, and the JMA is the official RSMC for the WPAC, so I've removed the "Super Typhoon Vongfong" header. That being said, holy f**k!!! I bought the idea of a powerful system but I never expected anything like this. Look at that satellite imagery! It's gorgeous! Look at that eye, that symmetry, that... everything!!! Best part is, it's reaching this extreme intensity while safely out to sea, unlike Haiyan, though hopefully it's a shadow of its former self by the time it reaches Japan. FWIW, Vongfong's 10-minute sustained winds are now at 115 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:52, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Gorgeous? More like malevolent! VongFongOmPong is going to annhiliate everyone because he is a Decepticon powered by Megatron :O (By the way, VongFong and OmPong rhyme XD The name Bom Bom by Sam and the Womp comes into my head when I hear the names VongFong and OmPong XD) TO THE OTAKU, THIS STORM IS NOT KAWAII!  rarity is best pony 18:42, October 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * And, VFOP has decided to have a phone attatched to a fan for lunch. Yummy.  rarity is best pony 18:45, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ha, nice pun on Phanfone. Back to Vongfong, it's now a strong cat 4, expect it to be a cat 2 or 1 when it reaches southern Japan. Ryan1000 20:51, October 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * According to the JMA, in 10-minute winds, it's now 100 knots (115 mph)/920 mbars and should weaken from here on out as it threatens the Asians up in Japan. And Liz I like your jokes and puns XD-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:48, October 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, this is weakening quickly. Now at 85 MPH . While I wasn't on the wiki when this peaked. I did see it peak, and it looked absolutely beautiful. Also, I have to agree with everybody and say that VongFong is an epic name.
 * -Goddamn it why do I always forget to sign  leeboy100 My Talk! 18:05, October 11, 2014 (UTC)

Well, at least its weakening. BTW where is everyone? leeboy100 My Talk! 02:42, October 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * People usually pay more attention to the ATL and EPac than other basins like the WPac, NIO and SHem, but since the WPac and NIO are the only basins spiting out big storms right now we might as well pay an ounce of attention to them...btw this isn't a tropical storm by JMA yet, Vongfong is still a typhoon, albeit a much weaker one than it once was. Ryan1000 09:29, October 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's down to 65 knots (75 mph)/970 mbars according to ther JMA, and it's about to strike Japan as a weaker storm. But it was still epic in that it became the most powerful system since Haiyan last year! :) -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:16, October 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * It looks like, in spite of what it was initially expected to be, Vongfong might actually be less severe than Phanfone was for Japan. That's good news, but it's still not a storm to be written off completely. Ryan1000 20:11, October 12, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Vongfong
Weakening rapidly as it passes over Japan, it should die tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:35, October 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope it wasn't bad for them and it should die very soon. Well, bye Vongfong, I enjoyed tracking you and witnessing you strengthening to something very powerful a few days ago! It was the strongest storm since Haiyan in November 2013.-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:35, October 14, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Vongfong
Down and out. Ryan1000 12:24, October 14, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 20W
Expected to become a strong typhoon, but remain well out to sea while doing so. Ryan1000 03:09, October 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * This could become of a strong Nuri during the next few days, and I root for something strong as long as it continues to be away from land!-- Steve820  | Happy  Halloween!   🎃👻 04:40, October 31, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nuri
Now named, it has a chance to brush with Japan in a week or so, but otherwise it shouldn't affect land. Ryan1000 20:14, October 31, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nuri (Paeng)
Nuri (a Malay term for a blue crowned parroquet) has gotten its act together rather rapidly in the past few hours. As you can see, cloud tops are cooling in its CDO and feeder bands are wrapping tighter into the LLCC. Winds are now at 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) per the JMA, a 10 knot wind increase in only three hours. Also, Nuri's winds are at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute) per the JTWC, gusting to 70 knots (80 mph). Although the JMA only shows gradual intensification over the next few days, the JTWC acknowledges favorable upper level conditions and SST's greater than 28C in the Philippine Sea. As an STR steers Nuri northward over the next few days, peak winds of 120 knots (140 mph) (1-minute) are expected with gusts of 145 knots (165 mph). However, since the JTWC has consistently been nudging their forecast peak for Nuri winds, I predict peak winds of 150-160 knots (175-185 mph) (1-minute), giving us our second straight Category 5. In addition, PAGASA has named the storm Paeng. Finally, as a side note, I started a replacement name section below the retirements section, given Rammasun and a couple other names from the season are noteworthy of retirement. If anyone has any name ideas, please feel free to post them there. :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:18, November 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * The latest JTWC pragnostic reasoning has noted Nuri has rapidly consolidated, with feeder bands feeding tighter into a now-obscured LLCC. A microwave eye has been noted, and I will not be surprised if RI or even EI commences within the next several hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:05, November 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nuri is already looking very great and I am also seeing it RI in the next day. It would be awesome if it EI'd into a super typhoon since it's not really a land threat. 😀 -- Steve820  | Happy  Halloween!   🎃👻 05:16, November 1, 2014 (UTC)

Typhoon Nuri (Paeng)
RI alert! RI alert! A eye is now present in Nuri per the latest JTWC prognostic reasoning, and a 1615Z composite image depicts a cyan ring surrounding it, which usually foreshadow rounds of fast intensification. Winds are now up to 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (1-minute) per the JTWC, gusting to 90 knots (105 mph). As the typhoon rounds the western periphery of the STR, it should steer into radial outflow, very warm SST's, and high oceanic heat content, allowing for a forecasted peak of 130 knots (150 mph) (1-minute) in the next couple of days, gusting to 160 knots (185 mph). Afterwards, as Nuri is sucked into the westerlies, extratropical transition is predicted at the end of the forecast period, along with some rapid weakening. On the JMA side, winds are now up to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute), along with a pressure of 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg). Less rapid intensification is predicted by the agency, with a peak of 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute) /950 mbar (hPa) expected for now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:06, November 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * At the very least, I expect this to become a cat 4, with winds near 140-150 mph, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if it becomes a cat 5. The jump in intensity is making both the JTWC and JMA more confident that Nuri will remain east of Japan; assuming that turns out to be true, the only real threat to land from Nuri will be high surf or, worst-case scenario, direct impacts to some military islands in the Pacific. Ryan1000 22:08, November 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's now a really insane storm, the JMA has this at "violent" strength and the current intensity is set at 105 knots (120 mph) (10-minute winds)/910 mbars. It's still probably not going to affect much land but dang this is an incredible system. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:42, November 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * 155 kt in 1-minute winds.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:32, November 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * And forecast by the JTWC to match Hayian's 170-kt (1-min) strength. Second line in this song (really cool music video btw, recommended) pretty much describes my reaction. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:43, November 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Incredible, another 180 mph category 5 super typhoon. Unlike her predecesor Vongfong, Nuri is expected to remain well at sea, which makes it all the more cool to watch, let's just hope that the huge swells from this thing don't cause too much trouble for the islands of the Pacific or southern Japan. Ryan1000 20:43, November 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just look at this! The JTWC pragnostic reasoning notes the extremely symmetric eye of Nuri (13 nm wide), surrounded by an incredibly dense CDO and a very compact system. Also, the typhoon has developed its own anticyclone, which, combined with poleward and equatorial outflow, is providing exceptionally efficient ventilation for its intensity. The next 12 hours will be a utopia for Nuri as it rounds the the STR axis - even more poleward outflow, no effects of VWS, incredibly warm SST's, a lack of an ERC, among other factors. However, afterwards, increasing shear and decreasing SST's will prompt gradual weakening. Even as Nuri enters the baroclinic zone, its power will take it a while for it to become fully extratropical, which should not happen for another four or five days. P.S. Gusts in Nuri are currently at 190 knots (220 mph) per the JTWC. If it does match Haiyan's peak winds, gusts are estimated to be at 205 knots (235 mph), which would give Olivia '96 a run for her money. Come on, Nuri! Break Haiyan's record to smithereens! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:52, November 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * THIS IS INSANE. I've like never seen a storm that has an actual shot at breaking 200 mph! I know Haiyan came close to it but still, it only peaked at 190/195 mph. I mean, holy sh!t, this is really incredibly insane seeing a storm trying to break Haiyan's strength to pieces. Nuri could also pwn Tip's record if it continues like this. C'mon Nuri, you can do this! Kick Haiyan's butt and reach 200 mph! :D -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 22:49, November 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Dafuq... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:22, November 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * WOAH WOAH WOAH! An 897 mbar extratropical system?!? The GFS is literally going nuts!!! :O Anyways, it has weakened to 925 mbars/100 knots (125 mph) (10-minute winds). Guess Haiyan didn't get beaten after all, I wish that would've happened though. :| -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:59, November 4, 2014 (UTC)

Nuri's just forecast to weaken from here on out, it's now 85 knots (100 mph) (10 minute winds)/945 mbars according to the JMA site and will become extratropical by Friday. It still was great to track though, especially with the insane strength it reached earlier! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 02:55, November 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steve and I seem to be the only ones on this wiki who have taken notice of the model forecasts for Nuri's extratropical intensity... the GFS is currently calling for a peak of 907 mbar (the forecast from earlier was a single ensemble member, I don't know what the GFS consensus was at that time), with the Euro calling for 919 mbar, I believe. Personally, as long as the strongest winds are away from land at the time, I hope this thing deepens below 900 mbar in its extratropical stage, simply because I want history to be made. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:36, November 5, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nuri
Down to a STS on the JMA scale, but still expected to be a huge 920 mbar superstorm when it hits Alaska. Ryan1000 13:21, November 6, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nuri
Lost tropical characteristics, but the worst impacts are likely still yet to come, for Alaska. Ryan1000 23:24, November 7, 2014 (UTC)

November
Well, it's that time of the year where the WPAC starts cooling down. I hope to see one more typhoon this month, along with a super typhoon out of Nuri. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:36, November 1, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
With four storms at hand, I feel like we can start this section.


 * 1) Lingling - 15% - I don't know what to say here. Seventy people is a hefty fatality number from all that flooding in the Philippines, but worse has struck and evicted them.
 * 2) *Agaton - 25% - Usually, it takes 300 fatalities to bust out a PAGASA name, but Agaton was a very nasty early season surprise for them.
 * 3) Kajiki - 5% - Seven fatalities and an early season Philippine landfall is probably all Kajiki will be remembered for, and Lingling was worse.
 * 4) *Basyang - 10% - I feel Agaton was worse, although Basyang did kill seven and produce minor impacts.
 * 5) Faxai - 0% - Became a breathtaking March typhoon, but caused no land impacts, so no.
 * 6) 04W - 0% - Not named by the JMA.
 * 7) *Caloy - 1% - Even Basyang was worse!
 * 8) Peipah - 0.1% - This could have been a much different story for the Philippines. Luckily, Peipah was kept in check.
 * 9) *Domeng - 0.1% - Caloy was worse than you!
 * 10) Mitag - 0.5% - Mitag zipped by a number of areas, but it had very little impact whatsoever outside of the Philippines.
 * 11) *Ester - 2% - Some slight flooding was reported in the Philippines, but no damages or fatalites have been reported.
 * 12) Hagibis - 8% - Well, the $131 million (2014 USD) was more than I expected. But even with 11 casualties, I do not think Hagibis will get retired.
 * 13) Neoguri - 10% - With seven fatalities and slight to moderate damage across Okinawa and Japan, I do not expect Neoguri's demise yet.
 * 14) *Florita - 0% - To my knowledge, Florita completely missed the Philippines.
 * 15) Rammasun - 60% - Yikes, the Thai god of thunder sure did leave his mark. Ninety percent of Metro Manila was left without power, and almost a hundred fatalities were reported in the Philippines. If that does not seal the deal, 51,000 homes were destroyed by Rammasun in Hainan, and Haikou, widespread tree, flooding, structural, and vehicle damage was reported. This was the most severe impacts they have witnessed from a typhoon in over four centuries. Vietnam also saw some nasty effects from Rammasun. With 187 fatalities and $6.51 billion (2014 USD) in losses, the typhoon is the sixth costliest WPAC system on record. I really hope Rammasun is kicked off the list, but deadlier storms have been snubbed in the past.
 * 16) *Glenda - 100% - Recent damage estimates from Glenda guarantee its retirement.
 * 17) Matmo - 20% - Matmo caused some severe agricultural damage in Taiwan and killed three across the nation and China. In addition, there was the nasty TransAsia airline crash which killed 48. Although this was less devastating than what I thought, 62 deaths and $565 million (2014 USD) is nothing we should be laughing at, and there is definitely a good chance here.
 * 18) *Henry - 1% - As far as I recall, nothing yet has been reported in the Philippines from Henry.
 * 19) Halong - 10% - the Philippines, and Japan got nailed too. Mie Perfecture witnessed a record-breaking rainfall rate and emergency warning, and strong gusts whipped the entire region. Twelve fatalities is rather low for retirement, but $1.1 billion (2014 USD) in losses puts Halong as the tenth-costliest Japanese typhoon on record. Although far costlier storms evicted retirement from Japan, we have no laughing matter here. Never mind, Halong only caused around $3.88 million in damages. That should reduce its chances quite a bit.
 * 20) *Jose - 5% - Actually, Jose was a little catastrophic for the Philippines. Thousands of people were affected by the monsoon rains, which killed two. Damages in the Philippines are estimated to be at P1.624 million. That's definitely not enough for retirement, but just something worth noting.
 * 21) Nakri - 7% - Fatalities in the Koreas were a little more deadly than I expected, and 16 deaths is nothing to laugh at. However, damages in relation to Nakri were only at $116,000 (2014 USD). That number is a lot less than I feared, and while Nakri has that small chance, I doubt it now.
 * 22) *Inday - 0% - Inday completely missed the region.
 * 23) JMA Tropical Depression - 0%
 * 24) *Karding - 1% - Karding did affect the Philippines, but I have heard no reports of devastation just yet.
 * 25) Fengshen - 0.5% - Aside from some potential effects in Japan, the Chinese god of wind busted this year.
 * 26) Kalmaegi - 20% - Caused extreme flooding and disrupted the Hong Kong stock market, not to mention flooding elsewhere. This was quite a typhoon, albeit weak.
 * 27) *Luis - 40% - 12 deaths and $18.3 million (2014 USD) does not qualify for PAGASA retirement standards, but the flash flooding caused around Luzon should make them think otherwise.
 * 28) Fung-wong - 35% - Lots of torrential rain in Metro Manila. Heck, people were riding around in canoes! Other effects included lahars from Mayon Volcano and extreme rainfall in Taiwan. 21 fatalities and $75.5 million (2014 USD) in losses may not be over the top, but the impact should say otherwise.
 * 29) *Mario - 70% - I don't care if the statistics don't meet PAGASA retirement standards, what happened in Manila would get Mario retired elsewhere in a lot of other places.
 * 30) Kammuari - 0% - Yes, Japan and the Marinara Islands were affected, but no deaths/damage, so no retirement.
 * 31) Phanfone - 15% - Strong gusts across southern Japan left thousands without power, halted Mount Ontake rescue efforts, and disrupted the Japanese Grand Prix. Losses seem to be quite high from a variety of perfectures ($41.5 million (2014 USD) in damages total), and 11 fatalities is nothing to laugh at. Phanfone was not as impacting as Halong or even Wipha, but it still left a huge mark from Japan.
 * 32) *Neneng - 0% - Zilch Philippine impacts.
 * 33) Vongfong - 20% - Effects outside of Japan weren't that notable from Vongfong, but Taiwan lost a very notable research ship. Several unfortunate fates occured in Japan with the winds and rain, but Japan hasn't been crying this was a nightmare storm, so I doubt it.
 * 34) *Ompong - 3% - Several flash floods occurred around Luzon and four fatalities were reported. However, PHP$4.02 million is far below what PAGASA deems severe, so we'll very likely see Ompong again in 2018.
 * 35) Nuri - TBA - Still Active
 * 36) *Paeng - TBA - Still Active

Post yours, too! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

Steven's retirement predictions:

JMA names
 * Lingling: 20% - 70 deaths but still doesn't seem bad enough for a retirement.
 * Kajiki: 5% - Slight impacts for the Philippines, but Lingling was worse.
 * Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon, but still no land impacts.
 * Peipah: 1% - Umm, no.
 * Tapah: 0% - No land was harmed in the making of Tapah.
 * Mitag: 0.5% - Very little impact.
 * Hagibis: 5% - $131 million in China and 11 deaths, but it most likely won't be retired.
 * Neoguri: 10% - Could've been a different story for Japan but luckily it weakened a lot before reaching Japan. There were much worse storms than Neoguri in the country, so I don't expect a retirement out of this guy.
 * Rammasun: 70% - With all the damages it caused in Philippines and Hainan a retirement is very likely out of him.
 * Matmo: 30% - Slight chance due to some destruction in Taiwan and China. It also caused a very deadly TransAsia plane crash that caused 48 deaths.
 * Halong: 25% - Damage in Japan and the Philippines may be enough to give it a slight shot at retirement but I doubt that will happen.
 * Nakri: 5% - 11 deaths and moderate damage throughout its path, but I doubt it would be retired.
 * Fengshen: 0% - Spinning fish out at sea won't earn a retirement.
 * Kalmaegi: 65% - Very destructive throughout its path and has a shot at retirement.
 * Fung-Wong: 15% - Might have a slight shot, but I don't think so.
 * Kammuri: 0% - All it does is spin fish.
 * Phanfone: 10% - It caused some slight impacts in southern Japan, but it's still not enough for retiring the name.
 * Vongfong: 10% - It became an awesomely powerful system but the damage/death tolls in southern Japan are only similar to Phanfone's totals, so it most likely won't be retired.
 * Nuri: ? - Still active

PAGASA names
 * Agaton: 30% - What a nasty early season surprise, might be retired but at the same time I think not.
 * Basyang: 10% - 7 deaths, however, Agaton was worse and Basyang barely has a chance.
 * Caloy: 1% - Seriously? Even Basyang was worse than you.
 * Domeng: 0.01% - Lol, this epic fail couldn't even compete with Caloy! :O It still affected land though, so I tacked a "0.01%" on Domeng.
 * Ester: 1% - Some flooding in the Philippines but it's not getting the boot.
 * Florita: 0% - Missed the Philippines
 * Glenda: 100% - With all the damages it caused, it will certainly be retired. PHP 1 billion in damage is enough to give it the boot.
 * Henry: 0% - Missed the Philippines
 * Inday: 0% - Missed the Philippines
 * Jose: 3% - Very slight damage in the Philippines but it's not going.
 * Karding: 0% - Meh.
 * Luis: 5% - Probably not.
 * Mario: 10% - Not enough to retire, really.
 * Neneng: 0% - Missed the Philippines.
 * Ompong: 0% - Missed the Philippines.
 * Paeng: 0% - Likely to miss the Philippines.

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC) (Last updated: 17:44, November 2, 2014 (UTC))

Ryan Grand's great speech...

JMA names: PAGASA names:
 * Lingling - 38% - 70 deaths isn't anything to laugh at, but enough for retirement? Probably not, unfortunately.
 * Kajiki - 3% - Caused some impacts, but it's nothing retirement-worthy.
 * Faxai - 0% - Became a typhoon, that's about it.
 * Peipah - 1% - Minor flooding in the Marshall Islands, that's all there is to say.
 * Tapah - 0% - No impact.
 * Mitang - 0% - I didn't know this one existed lol.
 * Hagbis - 15% - 131 million in damage and 11 deaths isn't a fail, but it's not enough to get the boot either.
 * Neoguri - 11% - Killed 7 people and caused some damage here and there, but Japan has seen worse and I don't expect it to be retired.
 * Rammasun - 80% - Six billion dollars in damage and over 100 deaths are very good numbers to retire a name, making Rammasun one of the top 10 costliest typhoons in history, but there have been bigger numbers from some other snubs in the WPac before, like Songda '04 (9 billion in damage) and Fengshen '08 (over 1000 deaths). Still, it was a widespread, destructive storm, and it has a fairly good shot at retirement.
 * Matmo - 45% - Current damage estimates are 567 million and it killed over 60 people in Taiwan and China, but it's not like they haven't seen that before. Probably not getting retired.
 * Halong - 5% - Although I was a little skeptical of Halong's damage at first, I certainly didn't expect the initial 1 billion damage estimate to be knocked down to a measly 3 million after detailed reanalysis. It looks like Halong pulled an Ophelia '05, and I doubt it's going now.
 * Nakri - 6% - 16 deaths and moderate damage reported. While that's not nothing, it isn't enough to retire it either.
 * Fengshen - 0% - Ooh, fishie!
 * Kalmaegi - 60% - Aon Benfield's disaster report for September 2014 (from Dr. Master's latest blog post) reveals that Kalmaegi caused 3 billion in damage and over 30 deaths across the Philippines, China, and Vietnam. That's more than I expected, but if Hagupit in 2008 didn't go for similar numbers, Kalmaegi may not either.
 * Fung-Wong - 32% - 75 million and 19 deaths isn't negligible, but it's probably not enough to retire a name either.
 * Kammuri - 0% - Remained well out to sea.
 * Phanfone - 4% - Minor damage and 1 death isn't going to cut the bill. Better luck next time Phanfone.
 * Vongfong - 24% - Damage was mostly moderate, nothing exceptional.
 * Nuri - ?? - Currently active.
 * Agaton - 35% - A bit higher than it's JMA name, but even so, I doubt it will go.
 * Basyang - 8% - Killed a few people and caused some damage, but it was far less devastating than Agaton, and many other storms that have hit the islands in the past.
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Is this a joke?
 * Domeng - 0% - Didn't cause severe effects to the Philipines.
 * Ester - 0% - Missed them completely.
 * Florita - 0% - Not even close.
 * Glenda - 100% - PAGASA storm names are retired if they cause at least 1 billion PHP in damage, and Glenda caused roughly 10 billion PHP damage (the 9th costliest typhoon in the nation's history), so yeah, goodbye.
 * Henry - 0% - Didn't touch the Philipines.
 * Inday - 0% - Nope.
 * Jose - 2% - Not a full miss, but no.
 * Karding - 0% - *yawns*
 * Luis - 5% - Little impact reported.
 * Mario - 100% - Meets the 1 billion dollar criteria (around 2.8 billion overall), so he's out.
 * Neneng - 0% - Well away from the islands.
 * Paeng - 0% - Not even close to the islands.

That sums it up. Ryan1000 23:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

71.187.140.146's retirements PAGASA TO BE CONTINUED 71.187.140.146 23:17, May 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lingling - 15%
 * Kajiki  - 0.05%
 * Faxai - 0% - Good job Faxai.
 * Peipah - 8% -  for its name sounds like Peppa(which was called Peppa Pig)
 * Tapah - 0.5% - Tapah reminds me of a Japanese Man
 * Agaton - 25%
 * Basyang - 9%
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Funny name
 * Domemeng - 4% - lower than JMA name

MY PREDICTIONS:


 * JMA:


 * Lingling - 30% - significant damage to the Philippines, but not enough.
 * Kajiki - 10% - Lingling was worse.
 * Faxai - 5% - A March typhoon. Just a March typhoon. No impact(s) at land.
 * Peipah - 2% - Eh?
 * Tapah - 0% - Wait, there's a storm named Tapah?
 * Mitag - 3% - Um... not really.
 * Hagibis - 20% - Oh, 11 deaths and $131 million worth of damage. China has seen worse storms.
 * Neoguri - 23% - Japan has seen worse than this, but wow, it was a big threat to Japan
 * Rammasun - 85% - Philippines consider this comparable to Xangsane, but Xangsane was worse though. But 40 deaths is quite big. And it hasn't dissipated yet. Forget what I have said before, $4.55 billion worth of damages and 170 total deaths in China, Vietnam and the Philippines is enough to retire Rammasun.
 * PAGASA:


 * Agaton - 35% - What an early surprise to the Philippines. 70 deaths, but that's it.
 * Basyang - 25% - Agaton was worse.
 * Caloy - 0% - Nah.
 * Domeng - 0% - Same with Caloy.
 * Ester - 2% - Quite affected the Philippines, but no significant damage.
 * Florita - 3% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon, but other than that, nothing else.
 * Glenda - 100% - OUT. PHP 1 billion worth of damages is enough.
 * (TO BE CONTINUED) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * (TO BE CONTINUED) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Time to throw my hat into the ring:
 * JMA
 * Lingling: 29% - 70 fatalities is no laughing matter, but deadlier Philippine storms have been snubbed before.
 * Kajiki: 7% - Wasn't bad enough.
 * Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon... and that's it.
 * Peipah: 0% - Nah.
 * Tapah: 0% - Glub glub glub.
 * Mitag: Who cares?
 * Hagibis: 13% - Death toll and damage bill are respectable, but not enough.
 * Neoguri: 14% - ^
 * Rammasun: 88% - Severe, widespread damage across several countries. $6.51 billion in damage and a grand total of 187 deaths significantly outshines the impact from last year's Utor, which was retired.
 * Matmo: 33% - Could've been a lot worse.
 * Matmo: 33% - Could've been a lot worse.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:05, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * PAGASA
 * Glenda: 100% - Damage bill is 1080% of the criteria, and rising.
 * Mario: 100% - Damage bill is currently three times the criteria.
 * All others: 0% - Did not meet the criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities.
 * All others: 0% - Did not meet the criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities.

Replacement names
Well, no one started this section, so I thought I would. Again, I realize this is the WPAC, where any replacement name can be submitted for a retired JMA name. Nevertheless, I will give suggestion for the names I think should go. Remember, Thailand will submit the replacement for Rammasun (they submitted it), and Hong Kong will submit the replacement for Fung-wong.

JMA:

Rammasun: (among the top ten costliest WPAC typhoons on record)
 * Nattapong (most popular Thai boy name in Thailand)
 * May (most popular Thai girl name in Thailand)
 * Congee (a rice dish frequently eaten for breakfast in Thailand)
 * Chaokuai (a grass jelly served with ice and brown sugar)
 * Kupera (Thai god of wealth)
 * Khuna (Thai god of paradise)
 * Chba (Thai name for hibisucs, a symbolism of Southeastern Asia and the tropical world)
 * Chang (Thai name for elephant, the national animal)
 * Takraw (a native Thai variation of volleyball where players can only use their feet, knee, head, and chest to touch the ball)
 * Plaek (a historical Thai figure, led the Thai Army during World War II)

Fung-wong: (caused severe flooding in Metro Manila)
 * Chi-kung (Chinese variation of a popular Cantonese name)
 * Mei-yee (Chinese variation of a popular Cantonese name)
 * Victoria (name of famous Hong Kong harbor)
 * Kau-lung (Cantonese name for Kowloon, a populous urban district in Hong Kong)
 * Zing-seoi-daan (Cantonese jyutping for a popular steamed egg dish eaten all over Hong Kong).

PAGASA:

Glenda: (PAGASA name for Rammasun)
 * Gugurang (a supreme god who dwells inside Mount Mayon who protects the sacred fire his brother was trying to steal)
 * Ginton (a Tboli diety, god of metallurgy)
 * Gemang (an Illogont diety, guardian of wild beasts)
 * Ginling (a traditional Filipino dish usually made with ground beef and potatoes)
 * Ganaden (popular Filipino name)
 * Gerna (popular Filipino girl name)
 * Geneva (common Western Filipino name in reference to the juniper berry)
 * Gemma (common Western Filipino name in reference to precious stone)
 * Gretchen (western Filipino name in reference to a pearl)
 * Gin (a Japanese Filipino name meaning "silver")

Mario: (PAGASA name for Fung-wong)
 * Magdang (Filipino god of lakes)
 * Maguimba (a Filipino Batak deity who supplied all of the necessities to life)
 * Mechado (a popular Filipino beef dish, often served with soy sauce)
 * Migoy (Filipino variation of Miguel)
 * Milo (common Western Filipino name meaning "soldier")
 * Matthew (common Western Filipino name meaning "gift of God")

Please post your replacement prediction as well!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:09, October 25, 2014 (UTC)

I'm not really sure what to think of JMA repacements, namely Rammasun (they're the toughest replacements to predict, since they don't have to have the same first letter), but as for Glenda, I'm voting for Gill or Gilian. Mario, Matthew looks pretty good for me. I don't think Fung-Wong itself will be retired though, and why not include Kalmaegi as a potential canidate? It caused 3 billion in damage to China and Vietnam, according to Aon Benfield. Ryan1000 12:13, November 1, 2014 (UTC)