Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season/September

September
Hi new month. YE Pacific Hurricane  05:35, September 1, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Lowell
This has got to be the longest lasting piece of crap floating in the middle of nowhere, tied with Guillermo 07 and Fausto 02. Halfway to Alaska. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  02:06, September 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * What is Lowell up to now? He doesn't want to die, apparently. Not sure what Alaska's going to see from this. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:11, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Tropical Wave
Likely a part of a tropical wave that spawned 97L. It should form despite next to no model support. 0/20. YE Pacific Hurricane  00:17, August 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Any development is going to be slow from the AOI. If it does come, I want it to be a hurricane due to the success Norbert has had over his EPAC career. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:53, August 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * A hurricane is possible as shown by NOGAPS, but not likely. 10/50. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:24, August 31, 2014 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
The AOI has been invested. It's rather disorganized right now, and it doesn't appear to have the luxury Marie did. Anyway, chances of development are now at 20% for the next two days and 60% for the next five. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:29, September 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * It has very low shear and very high SST's. LGEM and SHIPS brings this into the gulf, which are currently the warmest SST's in the world. NOGAPS and HWRF make this strong, with the NOGAPS have it passing W of Baja and the HWRF brings it near or over Baja but bombs it out in the GOC. CMC and the ECMWF keep it a TS but is like NOGAPS in tracks, while GFS does not do much with it. This is either going to be a win for NOGAPS/HWRF or GFS/GFDL. YE Pacific Hurricane  02:45, September 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * I'd love to see the NOGAPS scenario verify. Anyway, chances of formation are now at 70% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:31, September 1, 2014 (UTC)

Come on, Ridgeback! FORM!!! :) I'm sure he will. “i liek turtlez 14:39, September 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Consensus is clear on what is going to happen. A TS or weak hurricane will form, pass near Cabo, turn W, then NNE, and hit the Central part of the peninsula. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:38, September 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * I want this to form into Norbert and become a hurricane if it can! Currently 20/80. 93E, you can do it! :)-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 23:20, September 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/80. Models in fantastic agreement on it missing the southern tip, but a landfall in central Baja, YE Pacific Hurricane  00:06, September 2, 2014 (UTC)

If this becomes a hurricane, we'll have the longest consecutive streak of Pacific hurricanes ever, surpassing 1993's record of 7 (which 2014 currently ties), but don't expect it to get past cat 2 intensity or so, as it heads northwest then north towards Baja. Ryan1000 02:51, September 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Should become Norbert anytime now...100/100. Ryan1000 11:46, September 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Norbert
Here. No watches or warnings. Only 50 knt peak, so the hurricane streak is forecast to end. YE Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:48, September 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Oh well...I won't be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane, but I still hope for at least a minimal cat 1 before dying. This is nearly 5 weeks before the typical formation date of an EPac season's 14th storm. Ryan1000 20:15, September 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I also won't be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane, but I have a slight gut feeling that it will peak as probably a minimal C1. I hope that hurricane streak will end!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 22:35, September 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Why? You don't want to see a new record for most hurricanes in a row? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:03, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * On second thought...maybe it will. Norbert has organized quite a bit in the latest frames, now the forecast does call for a cat 1, though still remaining offshore. Hopefully it doesn't get too close for comfort with Baja. Ryan1000 03:28, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) YE, I've just been getting a bit tired of all the hurricanes, that's why. Though I would also like to see the record being broken.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:29, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steve, yea, but I'd still rather see a hurricane than a tropical storm. LAtesat 18z GFS it out; big shift north. This is starting to remind me of Paul 12 with the E shifts. Yesterday, I was confident on an OTS track, but now it is bring memories back of many other Baja TC's. However, I stress that this is only one run, and things can chance back W easily. BTW, this thing is up to 40 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:41, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm pretty sure this will be a hurricane now. 60 mph according to latest advisory, and forecast to remain a hurricane for some time. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for much of southern Baja, but Norbert is expected to remain offshore and will do so if current trends continue. Ryan1000 10:20, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now 70 mph...almost there. If the current late forecast track with this verifies from NHC, it might even threaten southern California in the long run. Ryan1000 22:54, September 3, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Norbert
8 hurricanes in a row! New record! YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:58, September 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dude, you beat me by a few minutes. Anyways looks like it finally became a hurricane! Congrats, Norbert, for breaking that record! 8 hurricanes in a row...that's pretty insane. The EPac never wants to take a break from producing all the hurricanes!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:02, September 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Good boy, Norbert, keep up the good work (as long as you stay away from land, of course)! With the latest intermediate advisory, Norbert's reputation for consistently reaching hurricane strength each time it was used remains intact. It'd be cool if we could extend that record to 9, but the next name, Odile, is female, and we could use a break from the girls constantly beating the guys :P (Julio currently stands as the only male major out of six total, and even that was the only one so far not to become a Category 4. We'll see if Norbert changes that. It's currently forecast to peak at 90 kts, but given the NHC's low bias, I wouldn't be surprised if Norbert becomes a 3 or, if it pulls an Amanda/Cristina, a 4. I'd love to see Norbert reach 120 kts and become the name's strongest incarnation to date, just like what happened with Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, Karina and, most notably, Marie.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:17, September 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * The EPAC is on fire right now! leeboy100 (talk) 00:11, September 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Flooding and surf for southern Baja will probably not be too severe so long as Norbert remains offshore. I expect Norbert to become a cat 2 at its peak, though it could pull a 3 if it strengthens quick enough. Also, to be a little more specific about what I said before for Norbert forming nearly 5 weeks before the EPac's typical 14th storm...Norbert marked the 3rd earliest date for the "N" storm to form in the Eastern Pacific, after Newton '92 and Nora '85. Nanette '71 and Narda '89 came pretty damn close though. Ryan1000 19:54, September 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like Norbert will peak where it is now (80 kt/970 mbar)... meaning that Julio remains the only male storm so far this EPAC season to exceed C1 intensity. This is getting a tad irritating :/ Oh, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for a portion of Baja's west coast. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:55, September 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's off the shore of Baja but it might cause some damage as it's very close leeboy100 (talk) 11:00, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * The core should remain offshore, but heavy rains will fall over the sparsely populated area. The big question is in 3 days, does it stall or turn north. I'd lean towards the former. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:25, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, Norbert's getting a little too close for comfort for the folks in western Baja. Looks like it won't go without impact after all, especially if it keeps stalling at this rate. I doubt it will become much stronger than where it is now, but intensity doesn't really matter when a storm like this could cause very severe flooding due to its slow movement. Ryan1000 17:51, September 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Question: how the heck can Norbert only have 80 kt winds when the pressure is as low as 966 mbar, which normally supports a strong Category 2 or weak Category 3? It's not unheard of in the Atlantic (Cristobal, Isaac, etc.) but I've never seen it happen in the EPAC before. Larger storms need lower pressures to generate higher winds (Lowell and Isaac being examples), but Norbert isn't even that big. For a point of comparison: when Julio's pressure was where Norbert's is now, it was a 100 kt major hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:01, September 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Reading wunderground* "966 MB and 90 MPH winds" WHAT!?!?!?!?!?!? Dylan you might be right, I haven't seen this happen in the EPAC either. The WPAC and the Atlantic, yes, but not EPAC. Then again this season has actually pulled some surprises. *cough* Amanda, Marie ,Genny, and Iselle *cough*
 * leeboy100 (talk) 22:52, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * In response to your edit summary, Leeboy: my post was untouched, so don't worry :) Anyway, Norbert's a Category 2 now, 85 kts/963 mbar. Very low pressures... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:53, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, those pressures look unusually low for a storm that strength. Pretty rare for the EPac! And it looks like it finally became a C2, congrats Norbert! :) (Also, looking at the forecast track it would look like a potential threat to SoCal as a remnant low in the long run) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:01, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * The lower pressures are likely due to the warm PDO if I had to make a guess. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:16, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whoa whoa whoa, ATCF has Norbert up to 95 kt/961 mbar. This thing is bombing, and it's way too close to the Baja coast to do so comfortably. I take back what I said; this is not how I wanted our next male major :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:04, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'd just like to mention that I somehow managed to edit conflict with myself while I was posting the above comment... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:15, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * This could actually be bad..........................  leeboy100 (talk) 01:28, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * The ec with myself have been happening to me too. And the core is still a bit offshore Baja, and this part of Baja, very few people live. It's a small hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:46, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Winds are now at 110 MPH......not good :0 leeboy100 (talk) 04:17, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Norbert
Norbert is now the 7th major hurricane of the season and hurricane force winds are affect baja california sur from what I am seeing. Allanjeffs 05:57, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, it looks like Norbert did pull a major off. This makes the 1990 Norbert the only Norbert to not become a major hurricane, and we now have 7 majors. This season needs 3 more majors to tie the record set in 1992, and two more cat 4's to tie the record of 7 held by 1992 and 1993. I guess there is a possibility we could set (or tie) a record or two this year. I was a bit skeptical that this season could do it at first, but now I guess there's a distinct possibility of it happening. Ryan1000 11:38, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, I wanted a hurricane from Norbert, and he gave me a major. Winds are at 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h) with a pressure of 957 mbar (hPa; 28.26 inHg). Julio's reign as the strongest male EPAC name of this season is over, and it looks like the males want revenge. >:) Norbert's accomplishment also marks the earliest date for an EPAC's seventh major since Jova in 1993. Anyway, a good chunk of Baja California is under TS warnings, namely between Santa Fe and Punta Eugenia. Gale-force winds and swells are going to be a slight problem for the next few days, but rainfall of potentially 10 inches might be the bad news for Baja. Also, since Norbert's eyewall has become a little less distinct, so he may not make it to C4 strength this time around. :( Pathwise, a ridge should keep the hurricane offshore for another couple of days before a trough hurls the remnants back at Baja. This will take Norbert into decreasing SST's, prompting the NHC to forecast degeneration into a remnant low in roughly three days. I'm pretty surprised the hurricane made it this far up, I was only expecting a minor hurricane at most. As a side note, may I ask why Norbert is so attracted to Baja California? Every one of his incarnations to date, minus his 1990 predesscor, has in some form affected the region. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:06, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

Welcome to Educating Norbert. Norbert is a new student here at Frederick Bremer school and is caught sneaking out of class with six other students. They are all placed in isolation. “i liek turtlez 15:19, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow I didn't expect that Norbert would become a major! But it now looks like it's peaking. Baja looks like it's getting pounded from this and it is forecasted to make landfall in northern Baja as a remnant low, so maybe SoCal won't get anything I guess? And Liz you're so funny XD --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:18, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Norbert (2nd time)
What a difference a day makes... I'm surprised no one has posted any updates on Norbert since its reign as a major hurricane ended, but it is currently a 50 kt/994 mbar tropical storm and fading fast. Hats off to you, Norbert, you were a great storm to track. Hopefully the effects weren't that bad. P.S.: Does anyone remember The Angry Beavers? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:13, September 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Still 50 kts (60 mph) and 994 mbars, it might die out by tomorrow. Also there's thunderstorm clouds located out east from where I live and they might come here, could they be associated with Norbert? I hope we get some rain since we're in a huge drought at this moment! And I agree, it was a great storm to track. I don't remember "The Angry Beavers", because when it originally aired I was too young to really watch TV (apparently its original run was 1997-2001) and I don't really watch TV that much anyways.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:29, September 7, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert
And it's dead. It'll still cause potential flooding rains for parts of upper Baja over the next day or two though. Ryan1000 10:05, September 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Extreme flooding in Arizona.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:09, September 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sucks for them. Over here in SoCal we're also getting some rain showers but nothing too bad. And its possibly associated with Norbert.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:25, September 9, 2014 (UTC)