Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season/Michael

AOI: North of Panama
It seems like I may have spoke too soon. The NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather north of Panama. It's at 0/20 for now, but they note that once shear lessens up, this could be a dangerous storm in the rich-warm northwest Caribbean down the road. This is something to watch out for. If not this then something else might come later in the month in the NW Caribbean. Ryan1000 11:19, October 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30 now. Beatissima (talk) 23:30, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

0/40. Beatissima (talk) 22:18, October 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. This has potential to be something significant, and I've often thought of "Michael" as an ominous-sounding name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:44, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up further to 30/60. This will likely affect the northeastern Gulf Coast in a week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:17, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * 40/70 now. This is something to watch, if it forms.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:58, October 05, 2018 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested now at 40/70 50/80. Beatissima (talk) 22:09, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm still concerned about how future-Michael will pan out. Hopefully conditions in the GOM won't allow it to become a monster and cause destruction on the Gulf Coast. I predict a peak at perhaps C1-C2, kinda like Nate. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:44, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 70/90.YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:06, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 80/90. I'm assuming PTC/TD 14 will come later today or early tomorrow. The invest just needs a well-defined circulation to be designated.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     15:19, October 06, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen
Special Message from NHC	Issued 6 Oct 2018 20:17 UTC NHC will be initiating advisories at 4 PM CDT on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

They pretty much confirmed it. Here comes Michael! (assuming it becomes a TS, which it probably will.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:37, October 06, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up now on the TWO. Not expected to be a hurricane on the 5-day cone.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:58, October 06, 2018 (UTC)

It is, however, forecast to become a 70 mph TS, so it could have a chance to become a cat 1 or so before Michael-to-be makes landfall on the panhandle. Ryan1000 21:42, October 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Track feels similar to Alberto or Gordon, especially with that peak.YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:59, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

100/100 now. Here it comes. Beatissima (talk) 23:43, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Yep, here comes Michael, and it’s likely going to head straight towards where I am. Leeboy100 Hello!. 06:28, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm looking at the model runs and now the ECWMF looks like it makes Michael a Category 3 hurricane making aim at the panhandle of Florida. I want to say anywhere from Tampa to New Orleans is under threat, but conditions look ripe in the Gulf for Michael to be quite ominous imo. I have a bad feeling. Owen 07:15, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

I don't believe this'll get that powerful before landfall, but the NHC forecast does now call for a cat 1 landfall near Panama City; assuming it hits there, Michael-to-be would be the first hurricane to directly hit there in 20 years, since 1998's Hurricane Earl. Ryan1000 09:21, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen
Current systems section has already said this but this section hasn't been updated yet. Anyway, I hope it won't reach Category 3. If that happens just before landfall, future Michael may rival Florence. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:30, October 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Michael-to-be won't be anywhere near Flo's devastation; there isn't enough property in Panama City for a (hypothetical category 3) storm to cause the damage Flo did to NC, and this will be moving faster so flooding from rainfall won't be as much of a threat. Now, if this were heading for, say Tampa at that intensity, that would be much worse, but Michael-to-be will likely make landfall north of there. Assuming this becomes a cat 1 at landfall, it would probably be a repeat of Hermine 2 years ago, just northwest of the big bend area. Ryan1000 16:04, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Michael
Tropical Storm Michael RSS Feed icon Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... 11:55 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 Location: 19.2°N 86.9°W Moving: N at 5 mph Min pressure: 1004 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

Update statement from NHC calls Michael. TWO not updated yet ATM, but Michael should be a hurricane. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:01, October 07, 2018 (UTC)


 * And like what Ryan said, this is basically Hermine 2.0. It is good that Michael is a fast-moving storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:35, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I like hurricanes. Just not when they hit people. It is a good thing that he's fast moving so no flooding from like stalling happens.YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:52, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Figured I'd share with you all this wonderful song that happens to bear this storm's name. Will be listening to it a lot this coming week, just as I did with this belter while Hurricane Maria was active. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:45, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

New advisory, 50 mph/999 mb. Now expected to peak as a Cat. 2. Like I said much earlier in the year, Michael gives me negative vibes... Send Help Please (talk) 21:02, October 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * The official NHC forecast is Cat 2 although several models are suggesting a Category 3 hurricane. Also some suggestion track will be revised slightly eastward which could put Tampa more as having potential effects so the track will need to be watched closely. Michael very likely could be the second retirement candidate of the year. Looks like the "M" is now the cursed letter of this decade much like how the "I" was last decade. --Whiplash (talk) 21:17, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like the Carolinas will get soaked again. Beatissima (talk) 21:39, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * As someone in Tampa, I'm growing increasingly concerned with Michael. If the eastward trend continues, the forecast cone could bring the center of a hurricane up through the Tampa Bay area and further into the Carolinas in areas already devastated by Florence. We are approaching our 100 years without a major hurricane strike, and every year the city is one of (if not, the most) overdue for a strike. I'm concerned about the lack of the time for preparation. Model runs are trending stronger and the GFS and ECWMF shows a category 3 major hurricane approaching the coastline with plenty of more room for rapid intensification. The HWRF wants to make him a monster, and boy would I crap my pants if I see a run with the new recon data of sub 920 mbar. Talk about an October surprise in all aspects (weather-wise and politically in the USA). If Michael wants to be big, bad, and join his sister Florence in retirement, that would be the way to do it. Owen 21:53, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * That would really be a worst case scenario. Recovery efforts for Florence are still ongoing, right?YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:54, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Dang...maybe the Euro wasn't so crazy on that earlier intensity forecast after all. NHC said that the eastward shift in the track was due to the center apparently trying to reform farther east. He'll recurve due to a deep trough, but when the recurve happens is all dependent on how much speed Michael picks up and how strong he gets when he does so. If Michael books it like Nate of last year, then he'll probably hit the northern gulf coast, as indicated by the NHC forecast, but Michael has a tiny circulation embeded in deep convection, so if he RI's (and worse, slows down on top of that, hopefully he doesn't), then Michael and the trough could break through the ridge and move further south than the current projected track. I didn't expect Michael to get organized this fast, but apparently the northwesterly shear over him didn't hinder him as much as I first thought it would, and now he's much better organized. And as storms like Patricia showed in 2015, tiny storms can explode very quickly given the optimal conditions, and there may be no more than a day or two before their powerful landfalls...hopefully he passes north of Tampa down the road, a direct hit there from a strong major hurricane would be devastating.

Also Owen, I think you may have seen this report before (I believe I mentioned it once before), but if you haven't, Dr. Masters made a blog post in late 2012 at one point, when he stated that Sandy technically wasn't a worst-case scenario ("black swan") hurricane for NYC, as bad as it was, since it made landfall far enough south and wasn't a major hurricane when she struck. In that post, he mentioned 3 cities that could suffer extreme damage from a worst-case scenario hurricane, and one was Tampa. The other two were the Persian Gulf, if an instance were to happen similar to Cyclone Gonu in 2007 but without significant dry air to weaken it, a strong storm surge in the United Arab Emerates could do major damage to the middle eastern oil industry, and Darwin, Australia (formerly destroyed by Cyclone Tracy in 1974, but Tracy was a wind event due to her tiny size, and didn't do much in terms of storm surge. In the Tampa scenario, he mentioned a late report (I believe The Weather Channel also made a documentary on this) that if a hypothetical category 5 "Hurricane Phoenix" directly struck Tampa, it could cause a colossal storm surge that could reach as much as 43 feet high, and cause up to 250 billion dollars in damage, twice the damage from Harvey last year. I don't think Michael will become a category 5 storm, but if push comes to shove and the recent intensity runs from some of the models come to fruition, and if the track keeps shifting further south, Tampa may have to watch out for a very close run from a category 3 or even 4 storm...it's nerve-racking to see storms change this quickly. Ryan1000 22:25, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * i didn't know hurricanes can moonwalk and change their cloud colours --FreedFromDesire (talk) 22:57, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 60 mph/997 mb. This thing is really getting its act together. Send Help Please  (talk) 23:48, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * because this is thriller, michael doesn't care about us bc he is a smooth criminal who thinks the US is billie jean --FreedFromDesire (talk) 23:55, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * This might actually become scary. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:57, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Michael is starting to scare me. Leeboy100 Hello!. 02:39, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * that moonwalking colour-changing glitter-gloved storm is now 70mph (for americans that use imperial bc yall love imperial, drink de cola YeY) and now is forecast to become a hurricane soon, 110mph cat 2. AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA Michael: "Hey girl, do you Remember The Time that I gave you a Thriller but your dad told me to Beat It cause I was Bad, and I said it's Human Nature. But he Didn't Care About Us, so I ran like a Speed Demon that Can't Stop Loving You, I mean The Way You Make Me Feel. I said to you I can't help that I just want to Rock With You, and you Don't Stop Till You Get Enough cause I'll be a Smooth Criminal but now I have to look at the Man In The Mirror and say She's Out of My Life."

--FreedFromDesire (talk) 12:24, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Michael
AL, 14, 2018100812,, BEST, 0, 209N, 851W, 65, 982, HU

Per ATCF, Michael is now a hurricane. One thing I want to note with Michael is that he continues to move more north and a bit east at times...I'm not buying a sharp NNW turn, not in October. Front looks too strong, and I still think he will be east of the current forecast based mostly on my gut, but it remains to all be seen. Owen 13:01, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

NHC confirms. 75 mph, 982 mbar. Leeboy100 Hello!. 14:42, October 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also, NHC forecasts are now bringing this up to major status before landfall. If that happens, say hello to our second retirement candidate. Leeboy100 Hello!. 14:47, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Edit Conflict: NHC also now predicts Michael to peak as a mid strength Cat 3 at 120mph. While I think Cat 3 is the most likely scenario for Michael I have seen some experts on Twitter saying low level Cat 4 is also a possibility in this scenario as well. Track also seems to be too far west in models and many are admitting this. Tallahassee looks like it could take a direct hit and experience major hurricane winds and can't rule out further eastern track depending on forward speed. Storm surge warnings have also been issued for Tampa. This is going to be a major event for Florida and this will almost certainly be retired if this scenario plays out. --Whiplash (talk) 14:50, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * CORRECTION**: That should say watch for Tampa. :) --Whiplash (talk) 14:55, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Things are looking worse every hour. For those who don't know, Florida's king tide event will occur while Michael is forecast to make landfall. Not only does that mean water levels will be at their highest, but there is the potential for a poisonous algae to be present. Pray for Florida, they're gonna be hit hard. -  PORY GONAL  14:59, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope this won't become Irma 2.0. That's all I can say. It is moving fast, but it is intensifying fast. I really don't feel good about Michael now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * And one more thing, death toll has risen to 9. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:11, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * So just to pick everyone's brain's here for a second. The track of Michael is taking it either just to the west or east of the Apalachicola penninsula. On the east of the penninsula is the Apalachee Bay. Now as far as I can tell if Michael does take this route is there actually any precedent for a major hurricane making landfall here. The closest I can tell would be the 1896 Cedar Keys hurricane at Cat 3 but even that was not in the bay. If Michael does take the more eastern route than I believe this would be the most severe hurricane to ever hit this area and probably the worst storm to ever hit Tallahassee. I suppose this route might be good because the actual coast where the storm surge is going to be is not that populated here? --Whiplash (talk) 16:39, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

No change in winds, but pressure down to 978 mbars per latest advisory. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:24, October 08, 2018 (UTC)

This track is genuinely terrifying.YellowSkarmory (talk) 18:28, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Winds now up to 80 mph, no change in pressure. Send Help Please  (talk) 20:47, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Well, the NHC expects the trough to come later while the high pressure ridge over Florida remains intact, but Michael's rapid intensification and less than fast movement could drastically change the track, and in a very short time Frame. If Michael continues to explode and move slowly while the trough catches up, then Tampa may well be in the firing line soon, because he's located further east than he was expected at this point. A 120 mph category 3 hurricane hitting Panama city would be devastating, but a Tampa landfall would be much, much worse. And yeah Whiplash, the area between Tampa and Panama City in Cedar Key or so (where Hermine made landfall in 2016) is less populated than many other coastal parts of Florida, though it is vulnerable to storm surge. But I really don't like Michael's rapidly changing intensity (and potentially course) that has happened overnight, especially for Tampa. Ryan1000 21:16, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * So I decided to do a little homework on major hurricane landfalls in this area. To answer my above question there has actually never been a major hurricane in the Apalachee Bay proper. Considering a lot of the forecasts have Panama City kind of in the middle of the cone of uncertainty I decided to see all the major hurricanes that landfalled within 65 nautical miles of the area and there have been 6 all category 3's the were by recency in 1851, 1877, 1882, 1894, 1917, and Eloise in 1975, in otherwords it has been a very long time since a major hurricane has made landfall in this particular section of the Panhandle and the most recent Florida Panhandle hurricanes have been more towards the Pensacola area so this track would be a rarity if this is where the final landfall is and at least from the climatological record a Category 4 has never made landfall in this area. Which maybe is a comforting statistic although there is nothing with the dynamics of the area to say this area couldn't have a Category 4. I hope that the length of time since a bad storm here doesn't lead to complacency with the evacuation orders. Eloise the last storm in this area did not cause any direct fatalities in the state although 4 people died indirectly in the state most of Eloise's fatalities occured in the northeastern U.S. as it became a rain event. Based on these facts hopefully Michael isn't particularly catastrophic in Florida however depending on track potentially the biggest issue could be if he further aggravates the flooding issue in the Carolina's. Not sure if he will be a retirement candidate after all, just depends how seriously people take the storm to avoid loss of life. --Whiplash (talk) 22:42, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

WOW. Preliminary data from the most recent recon mission suggests Michael has dropped from 978 to 968mb since the last mission started. If this keeps up we would be looking at a monster major by tomorrow morning. --Whiplash (talk) 23:44, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Per latest advisory, Michael now 85/970. This is getting worse and worse.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:01, October 09, 2018 (UTC)


 * (edit conflict) If Michael hits Panama City as a category 4 storm (as indicated by the HWRF) it would be a very destructive hurricane, though it may not cause nearly as much as Florence did to North Carolina due to it's lower population than cities like Tampa or Miami, but a landfall farther south can't be ruled out, and Michael has also expanded his outer windfield a bit since before...for some ominous reason, I have a bad feeling this'll hit Tampa if it continues to quickly explode, because it could get recurved by the approaching trough sooner if that happens. Ryan1000 00:09, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * I have this gut feeling as well Ryan, but I also had the same one with Irma and we saw what ended up happening. The movement is still due north, which would bring the eye of Michael closer to Tallahassee than Panama City. Regardless of where Michael ends up landing, this is a very scary situation unfolding. Owen 01:51, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Now up to 90 mph. Send Help Please  (talk) 02:58, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * I've been watching this system over the past couple days and it's really shaping up to be something very scary for the Florida Panhandle. Michael is intensifying fast and could make landfall as a major hurricane. I'm particularly concerned for Leeboy, who lives in that region... This is shaping up to be the year's second retirement candidate. Unfortunately, that region doesn't have much time to prepare (landfall is Wednesday). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:44, October 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Depends on how strong the ridge holds. If the high pressure ridge holds on (like it fortunately currently seems to be), then Tampa might get off the hook, but if it misses Tampa it may become stronger when it reaches the panhandle. In the case of Irma, I feared that it would actually be a worst-case scenario for Miami and/or Savannah instead of Tampa (since an exceptionally strong major hurricane hitting Miami could inflict even more damage than a similar storm in Tampa, especially since a storm like Irma was expected to ride north-northwestward up the southeastern coast of the state, which would've also devastated many towns and suburbs north of downtown). But back to Michael, Panama City is on the coastline instead of inland like Tallahassee, but they could both be hit hard by this thing, and with Michael's rapidly organizing structure, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a cat 4 before landfall, he's already looking as if he wants to develop a pinhole eye, and with the current conditions in the GOM, I don't see anything stopping him from intensifying very rapidly over the next day or two, possibly even to a 4. Also @Whiplash: Panama City technically wasn't founded in Florida until 1909, so although the 1851, 1877, 1882 and 1894 hurricanes made landfall in that area of Florida, Panama City didn't exist at the time those 4 storms struck. That leaves the 1917 hurricane and Eloise, and they both technically missed the city just to the west, although that still left Panama City with parts of the right-hand side of the storms. Michael will certainly be the worst hurricane in modern memory for the small city of roughly 37,000 people, if he becomes a category 4, let alone 3, at landfall there. Ryan1000 04:50, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 100 mph/968 mb. Send Help Please  (talk) 12:02, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * 965 mb/110 mph. Michael is almost a major now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:44, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still 110 mph/965 mb at the 1 PM CDT advisory. EDIT: I'm an idiot and forgot to sign.YellowSkarmory (talk) 19:49, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is getting scarier and scarier. It's already so close to major status and might be one by the next advisory. This is looking like it will be devastating for the Florida Panhandle... God help them ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:53, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Michael
Oh no, jumped to 120/957. C4 is now possible if Michael continues to intensify. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     20:57, October 09, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, Michael's joining Florence in retirement, no doubt about it. Send Help Please  (talk) 21:02, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Michael is expected to be the strongest storm to hit the Florida Panhandle since Dennis in 2005. Which means people in that region had not gotten a major hurricane hit for over 13 years. I really hope they are well prepared right now as this is the last day before Michael unleashes his fury.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:12, October 09, 2018 (UTC)

The best case scenario for Florida: Michael to pull off a Hermine or Nate. Worst-case scenarios, meanwhile, range from Eloise and Elena to Charley, Dennis, Ivan and Opal. And Michael may even be Harvey-like in terms of (rapid) intensification. This is looking to be a confirmation of another curse in the Atlantic name lists: the "M" curse. Before 2016, the only "M" names retired were Marilyn and Michelle, both from list 5, and of course, the deadliest named storm in the Atlantic: Mitch. (Thanks Dylan for reminding me!) We now have two more names added to it (Matthew and Maria); we may likely have the third one in a row with this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:17, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Don't forget Mitch, whose retirement got Matthew on the lists in the first place...! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:20, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Michael has been wrapping some thick convection around his circulation recently, which could lead to even more strengthening before landfall. The current forecast calls for Michael to become a slightly stronger 125 mph major hurricane, but given his impressive structure and the continued favorable conditions in the GOM, a cat 4 is very possible and likely with him before landfall. Panama City is staring down a potential death strike from this storm. Ryan1000 21:45, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

This storm appears to be strengthening further. This storm is becoming really scary. Also, on the new apparent M name curse, it kind of makes sense. The letter M is the 13th letter of the alphabet. I’m likely fine where I’m at, on the west side of the center, but I hope people closer to the center and in the East side are prepared. Leeboy100 Beware Michael’s Fury. 23:41, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Same winds but 4 millibars lower. 120 mph/953 mb.YellowSkarmory (talk) 23:50, October 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Michael looks like a beast in the IR. This is some structure you only see in the very strongest hurricanes. Will almost certainly be a 4 now and could take a wild run at a 5. Unthinkable. This will certainly be the worst hurricane to ever hit the Florida Panhandle and may the storm of a lifetime for that part of the state. --Whiplash (talk) 00:08, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Michael is significantly better organized by now, and he's a lock for a category 4 tonight. I'm not sure if Michael will reach category 5 intensity, but if he does, or becomes a top-end category 4, Panama City will be annihilated tomorrow afternoon or night. This is looking to be an absolutely terrible storm for the panhandle region, and could possibly be their worst hurricane on record. Furthermore, Michael could also worsen relief efforts after Florence in NC due to rainfall from his remnants. Ryan1000 00:30, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * 00z ATCF revised the intensity to 110 kts/949 mbar. At this rate, Michael may unseat Florence as the strongest storm of the season... a bit close to land there, boy... remember the forecasts for Florence that crashed her into the Carolinas as a Category 4? Florence may have ultimately fallen well short of striking the US at such an intensity, but Michael seems determined to succeed where she failed. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:57, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

I swear I saw Michael took on an annular appearance briefly in the latest sattelite imagery, in any instance Michael will likely become a 4 sometime later today. Ryan1000 02:51, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Michael up to 125 mph/947 mb. Projected to reach category 4. YellowSkarmory (talk) 02:53, October 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Absolutely astonishing. If anyone had have told me that this storm would be eyeing Cat. 4 a few days ago, I would have called them crazy. This is about to make Opal's impacts look puny... Send Help Please  (talk) 03:02, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah this looks annular right now. Not good, and...if Michael is a category 4 at his landfall in Florida tomorrow, it would be one of only five category 4 hurricanes to hit the U.S. during October, the others being the 1893 Chenier-Caminanda Hurricane, the 1898 Georgia Hurricane, King of 1950 and Hazel of 1954. It would also be the strongest landfalling hurricane in the Florida Panhandle if it does so. Hopefully Panama City has been evacuated by now, because this relentless monster has less than a day until landfall. Ryan1000 04:13, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * 130/945. This is a monster. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:58, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... Category 4 now. 130 mph, 945 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Michael’s Fury. 05:59, October 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * 4 AM advisory came out recently, Michael is now up to 140 mph and 943 mbars. Pressure is only 4 mbars behind Florence. RIP Panama City... Ryan1000 09:42, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * 5AM CDT update: 140 mph, 937 mbar. Michael has surpassed Florence intensity-wise. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:08, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Michael is continuing to rapidly organize and he's also picking up speed, he might even have a chance to reach 150 or 155 mph before making landfall later this morning or afternoon. Hopefully everyone has evacuated by now. Ryan1000 10:38, October 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Latest recon suggesting pressure of 933mbar and somewhere between 125 and 130knts. Probably will be 150mph at next adviory and will probably be either 155mph or a 160mph Category 5 at landfall based on current rate of intensification. Are we about to have the 4th Category 5 landfall in the U.S. on record? --Whiplash (talk) 11:10, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Surely enough, the just-issued intermediate advisory ups Michael to 125 kts/933 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:47, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

What may be worse than the intensity is that, if the Today Show Twitter is telling the truth, upward of 25,000 are still in Panama City. This...has the potential to be utterly heartbreaking. Thoughts going out, hope it doesn't turn out as bad as it could. Jake52 (talk) 12:29, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oh dear, I hope that isn't the case. Anyway, Michael is now turning out to be the Panama hurricane: it started as a wave north of Panama, and will likely hit Panama City (in the U.S.) very bad. Michael may even reach 150 or 155 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:55, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Holy crap, look at the latest visible imagery! At this point I wouldn't be surprised if Michael manages to crack Category 5 before landfall. This keeps looking worse by the hour. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:58, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * RIP Florida Panhandle! This is going to be the first C4 to strike the Panhandle on record. I hope as much people as possible are out of the area now. Don't want to hear about deaths from those who refused to evacuate. Michael's an absolutely scary, life-threatening catastrophe... 2nd retirement candidate for sure now. And God forbid if it becomes a C5! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  13:18, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

145/931 now. I'm almost more worried about the Carolinas at this point from impacts with Michael, and the gulf impacts will be bad.. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:07, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * At this point, I'm worried for the Southeastern U.S. (excluding southeast Florida though). This is another historic hurricane for the U.S., and this may not be the last one yet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:12, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Same winds, down to 928 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:59, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Special 10:30 AM advisory: 150 mph, 923 millibars. This is just unbelievable, and getting scarier by the minute. Leeboy100 Beware Michael’s Fury. 15:32, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Unless Michael spectacularly collapses in the next 3 or 4 hours before landfall, he's a lock for one of the top 10 most intense landfalling hurricanes in US history, and seems to even be making a run for the top 5. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:47, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * 919 mbar per the 12pm CDT position update!!! If Michael hits land with that pressure, he'll be the third most intense landfalling US hurricane on record, only behind the Labor Day hurricane and Camille. This is just unreal... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:57, October 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * 919 millibars as of the latest update. Winds stay the same. If this pressure holds until landfall, Michael will be the third most intense hurricane to make landfall in the US. Only behind Camille and the Labor Day Hurricane, and just ahead of Katrina. This is just unbelievable. Leeboy100 Beware Michael’s Fury. 16:58, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Menacing Michael now moving onshore. Landfall imminent. This would be the strongest landfalling hurricane in the U.S. since Camille. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:18, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

155/919. WOW. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:40, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall between Mexico Beach and Tyndall AFB, FL
And it seems that Michael is now making landfall between Panama City and Mexico Beach, near the Tyndall Air Force Base which already recorded a 129 mph gust before Michael moved ashore. Yes, we now have America's strongest landfalling hurricane in 49 years. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:24, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, YellowSkarmory is right: Michael is almost a Category 5 at landfall. 155 mph, 919 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:42, October 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yep 155, 919. Third strongest landfall in US history. Leeboy100 Beware Michael’s Fury. 17:43, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

155/919. This is terrifying, could be upgraded to cat 5 in analysis. Edit: Landfall location is Farmdale, Florida I think. YellowSkarmory (talk) 17:43, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pardon my French, but holy fuck... Michael is a guaranteed retirement, and will make the 'M' letter only the second in Atlantic history after the 'I' letter to be retired at least three seasons in a row. Also, if Michael is upgraded to a Category 5 in post-analysis, he will be the third consecutive Atlantic 'M' storm to reach C5 intensity, which would be a first for any letter since TC naming began in 1950. I can't even wrap my head around what has transpired since this weekend. This was a goddamn WAVE only four days ago, and today it achieved the fourth-highest winds and third-lowest pressure of any Lower-48-landfalling hurricane in history. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:34, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 140/927, but it's still a C4 25 miles south of the Alabama/Florida border. This could be the deadliest US hurricane excluding Maria since Katrina. One of the scariest that i've ever tracked past like the actual landfall point/a day or two before. YellowSkarmory (talk) 19:57, October 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Panama City just got smashed by this monster, I expected Michael to intensify more before landfall, but 155 mph? This thing fell just 5 mph shy of being the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Florida Panhandle on record, and is now the 3rd most intense and tied for 5th strongest by windspeed, hurricane to hit the U.S. It's also the strongest October storm to do so, and the strongest ever in the Florida panhandle. Michael absolutely exploded just before making landfall, hopefully loss of life won't match the inevitable extreme damage we'll see in the aftermath of this hurricane. It's hard to imagine this thing didn't even exist 5 days ago, and now we've got one of the strongest U.S. landfalling hurricanes ever. God help the people in the Panhandle from this monster. Ryan1000 20:19, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Down to "only" a category 3. 125 mph, 932 mb. Super close to the Alabama/Georgia/Florida tri-point now. Unsure exactly where. YellowSkarmory (talk) 20:54, October 10, 2018 (UTC)




 * 115/940 now. Soon going to be a cat 2 at this rate but it's over Georgia, first major hurricane to have its' eye over Georgia since 1898. YellowSkarmory (talk) 22:21, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Michael (2nd time)
Cat 2. 100/950 now. Leeboy100 Beware Michael’s Fury. 23:05, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Sadly, they've just announced a fatality. One person died when a tree fell.


 * Aw man, was really hoping we wouldn't see that many deaths or one this early. :( At least it's no longer a major hurricane. YellowSkarmory (talk) 23:11, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agreed. But I fear this person is just the first of many, on top of the 13 people who were killed in Central America, especially since so many people did not evacuate. Beatissima (talk) 23:21, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Down to Cat 1. Beatissima (talk) 00:00, October 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * 90/955. What's the lowest pressure ever recorded in a C1? YellowSkarmory (talk) 00:02, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sandy 2012? I can't believe Michael almost reached C5 intensity right before landfall! One of the most powerful U.S. landfalls on record... This is a lock for retirement at this point, and it's possible it'll end up in the top 3 costliest on record once it's all said and done. I pray the deaths don't significantly rise further. Panama City and surrounding areas were absolutely obliterated. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:07, October 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Sandy would be the correct answer. Sandy’s 940 millibar pressure is the lowest pressure on record for a Category 1. Meanwhile, Michael continues to weaken. Down to 85/960. Leeboy100 Beware Michael’s Fury. 01:18, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

Michael is down to 75/970. I expect to see him become a TS soon. YellowSkarmory (talk) 02:55, October 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * I will be very eager to see the re-analysis of this storm I would not be surprised at all for it to be reclassified as a 5 at landfall. Some recon readings suggested some Cat 5 winds right before landfall. We will have to wait awhile to find out though. --Whiplash (talk) 03:13, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Michael (2nd time)
Speak of the devil, 70 mph/975 mb. Still worried about the Carolinas. YellowSkarmory (talk) 04:09, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Michael may or may not be costlier than Florence, but retirement is very certain at this point. Anyway, winds are now down to 60 mph, but the pressure remains very low: 979 hPa. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:04, October 11, 2018 (UTC)




 * 50/990 now but he's over the Carolinas now. Might threaten europe while extratropical/post-tropical. YellowSkarmory (talk) 16:48, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, the forecast track takes it directly into Britain and France now as an extratropical system. Michael will likely end up in the top 5 costliest systems on record. This naughty boy will be retired for sure after this year. As it weakens over the Carolinas and turns extratropical, good riddance to Michael! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:06, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

Because of Michael's rapid forward speed, inland flooding won't be as severe as Florence earlier this year or from similar stalling storms. Still, Michael brought extreme damage to the Panhandle where he struck; Panama City looks like a warzone, with power lines down all across the city and several buildings fell apart or collapsed in Michael's colossal storm surge and extreme winds. The only bit of good news is that Panama City and the areas to the southeast of it aren't the most populated parts of Florida's coastline; I can't even imagine what would've happened had Michael hit a larger city like Tampa at the intensity he did near Panama City. Ryan1000 21:13, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

Sadly, the death toll for Michael in the US is now up to 6. 4 in Florida, 1 in Georgia, and 1 in North Carolina. Once again, North Carolina is getting hit hard again, not even a month after Florence. Michael is definitely getting axed this year. Also, as somebody who went through Ivan, I can say that Michael is probably the worst storm the Florida Panhandle has ever seen. Sure, I haven’t seen the damage in person like I did with Ivan, but the damage photos I have seen look a lot worse than the damage wrought by Ivan. Edit: I looked it up, that death was in North Carolina. Leeboy100 Beware Michael’s Fury. 22:14, October 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Reports that there are 285 people unaccounted for in Mexico Beach alone. Considering Port St. Joe, Panama City and Apalachicola all were hit by very destructive surges and probably had people who ignored evactuations the death toll could really explode here unfortunately. --Whiplash (talk) 02:28, October 12, 2018 (UTC)

Michael has strengthened. Up to 60 mph/985 mb. YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:16, October 12, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Michael
After becoming very disorganized recently, and since he no longer poses a threat the U.S. east coast due to moving offshore (except for some parts of New England this morning), the NHC has ceased to issue advisories on Michael. Ryan1000 09:42, October 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Off goes the final incarnation of Michael. Send Help Please  (talk) 12:00, October 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Insured losses are now at $8 billion. 26 deaths so far: 11 in the U.S. and 15 in Central America (8 in Honduras, 4 in Nicaragua, 3 in El Salvador). Michael is basically "going, going, gone" from the lists. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:06, October 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 17 dead in the U.S. What concerns me most is that this death toll does not include anyone from Panama City or Mexico Beach which according to this article several bodies have been found but unfortunately they haven't been able to count them all with the coroner of the area saying they are overwhelmed at the moment. However, they also scrapped the need for a temporary morgue so not sure what we are looking at as a final death toll from this area as there are conflicting signals. In other news apparently some aircraft which were under maintenance weren't able to be evacuated from the base each of which with price tags of $146 million dollars. Apparently they have also been seriously damaged. I feel the total damage amount from this storm is going to increase sadly. --Whiplash (talk) 23:56, October 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * There were some $30 billion estimates, don't know if those are reliable though. Damage in Central America turned out to be about US$100 million. Death toll remains the same for now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:35, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

We'll keep this up for another week or two before giving Michael his own archive, since his overall impacts are still uncertain. Ryan1000 07:04, October 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ex-Michael did brought us early morning cool strong winds here in NYC yesterday. Anyways, according to this, thousands have been reported missing in the aftermath of Michael. We may have hundreds, if not, maybe thousands (hopefully none of the two) dead. What a catastrophic storm.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:05, October 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Better not. 😰 I hope (at least) a lot of them are found alive! That's unfortunately what happens when a 155 mph monster heads straight into populated areas. I heard Panama City and Mexico Beach were absolutely obliterated when this storm hit & a whole bunch of people could be found dead there (hopefully not). Goodbye to the name "Michael" for good. A devastating storm alright... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:10, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * 18 deaths so far, and damage estimates remain at $8.1 billion. Somewhat off-topic but Florence's damage total has been lowered from $45 billion to $13 billion, which means that for now, Florence is out of the top 10 costliest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:41, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * A drop from $45 billion to $13? That's odd. Beatissima (talk) 07:50, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

I mentioned that in my retirement predictions below. I didn't expect Florence to cause that kind of damage, given the historic flooding she caused to NC I expected the damage would be at least 20 billion dollars or so. Still a retirement storm though. Michael's damage estimates are still around 8 billion. Bad, though as mentioned times before, it could've been much worse had it struck a bigger city like Tampa further south. Ryan1000 14:43, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Seems that Michael's remnants/extratropical remains also affected Europe – I hope he did not cause further damage there. Anyway, the missing count in Florida has significantly dwindled. ABC reports that only 3 are still missing, while CNN says that 30-35 people remain unaccounted for. A huge majority of the 285 (that was earlier mentioned) have been found alive. Total death toll remains at 33 (18 in the U.S., 15 in Central America), and the damage cost remains at $8.1 billion. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:11, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's nice that most were found alive. And I'm quite surprised to see Florence's damage estimates drop that much, but both Florence and Michael are still virtually certain to be struck off the lists next spring. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:52, October 15, 2018 (UTC)