Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #1
0/20. 18z GFS brought this near MX. YE Pacific Hurricane  00:09, September 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * I believe this might be Simon by next week. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:45, September 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't see any reason why this AOI couldn't develop. However, do note it is tagging right behind Rachel. Chances of formation are now up to 50% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:05, September 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/60. Here comes Simon... Ryan1000 20:56, September 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, Simon is just around the corner. Geez, this is a really active EPac season! And if this is the 12th consecutive hurricane...-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 21:02, September 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Steve, I actually wouldn't mind if this AOI continued the hurricane streak one more storm. For trivia, the two Simons of the EPAC - in 1984 and 1990 - both reached winds of at least 55 knots, yet neither became hurricanes. However, the 1990 incarnation was just a kiss away from being so - 60 kts/990 mbar, and if it were not for the cooling SST's it dealt with, IMO that could have been a Hurricane Simon. Sadly, it didn't become one, and it's time for Mr. Seville to become a hurricane for once! :) Anyway, the AOI's chances of formation are now at 20% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:24, September 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steve, stop complaining when storms are strong. In a few years, when this historic season is long over, and we've hit an epic -PDO string, you'll be regretting the fact that you did not route for the last few storms to deepen. Anyhow, GFS doing its usual back off now that it's abit offshore. YE Pacific Hurricane  04:19, September 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't think Steve is complaining, at least not if his reaction to Rachel becoming a hurricane is anything to judge by. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:33, September 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * YE, I'm not complaining, I just think the number of hurricanes we've had so far is just damn dramatic. I never thought we would have 11 hurricanes in a row this season!!! I hope Simon comes from this, and it could possibly be another hurricane, which would be absolutely awesome, since it would extend the record to 12! What an incredible season we've had thus far.-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 16:18, September 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Andy, Steve, look what Simon Cowell did to that chipmunk. This is all what he could say. What the bloody hell was that?  rarity is best pony 22:48, September 28, 2014 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Invested and at 80% for 5 days. Ryan1000 21:49, September 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Simon is coming soon, 40/90, and might bring heavy rain over parts of southern Mexico. And it could even be our 12th hurricane!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:39, September 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now 60/90. Where is everyone? Right here is a candidate for Simon, guys! However, it is causing some floods in southern Mexico, but it could still be our 12th hurricane in a row.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 02:10, October 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E
Here. Initial forecast is to peak this as a 65 mph TS, but if Rachel was able to pull off hurricane strength when it was only forecast to peak at 45 mph initially, this can become a hurricane too. Ryan1000 21:35, October 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Simon
Now named, and the forecast peak is raised to 70 mph. However, like Rachel, I expect this to become a hurricane, possibly a cat 2 or 3 if he gets lucky. Ryan1000 10:12, October 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * 45 knts. GFS, GFDL, and HWRF brings this to Baja as very potent hurricanes. NHC too far west, so Baja watch out. This system is intensifying, which is when models tend to shift E and brings storms near Baja. As for intensity, we have more divergence than the past 2 systems, and low shear and warm SST's. Therefore, this should be at least a Cat 1-2, possibly a 3-4. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:44, October 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * That's not good, especially after what Odile put Baja through :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:16, October 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Simon could become a hurricane tomorrow. I predict that this will peak at Cat. 2 strength, and like you guys said above my post, it might be a threat to Baja. This means bad news for the dudes and ladies in Baja that were affected by the destructive Odile recently. Simon, whatever you do, don't point at Baja and instead try to turn away from it!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:35, October 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks a little sheared. I would have gone 50 knts the past 2 cycles, but NHC is not liking ADT values for some reason. ASCAT found this a 40-45 knts TS, but is downright trash. 12z ATCF keeps this at 45 knts, in line with Dvorak, but below CI values. NHC track still too far west for my liking. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:00, October 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * If this thing recurves to hit southern or central Baja it's probably going to be weakening fast before it makes landfall. It'll probably be like Paul 2012 more than Norbert '08. Personally, I'm hoping for a cat 3 at Simon's peak. Ryan1000 15:00, October 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * EP, 19, 2014100400,, BEST, 0, 190N, 1111W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D, This season just keeps on truckin'. The first Hurricane Simon comes hot on the heels of the first Hurricane Rachel, and I have a feeling that Simon will be quite a bit stronger. We'll see. For what it's worth, it has now been 19 days since we last had a major hurricane in the EPAC (Odile lost MH status on September 15). That's our longest gap since Iselle became one on August 3, 51 days after Cristina weakened to a Category 2. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:05, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Simon
...SIMON BECOMES THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...Wait, 13th? Last I checked, it was the 14th...and 12th consecutive. Anyways, forecast peak is now raised to 100 mph. Though I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a major. Ryan1000 05:35, October 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now 85/981. Forecast to peak at 110 mph, but at this point Simon has a pretty good chance of becoming a major hurricane. Let's just hope he weakens a lot before making landfall in southern Baja. Ryan1000 12:32, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's the 13th because they were referring to the EPAC proper, i.e. they didn't count Genevieve because it became a hurricane in the CPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:00, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * My C4 sense is tingling... Simon is already a Category 2 per ATCF, and at this rate, we could have a major before nightfall. EP, 19, 2014100412,, BEST, 0, 199N, 1133W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1007, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D, Simon is a good 20 kts and 14 mbar stronger than it was at the last ATCF entry only 6 hours prior. I think we have a bombing hurricane on our hands for the first time since Odile. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:24, October 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Simon might very well become a cat 4 might be the third male major hurricane of the season along with Julio and Norbert.Allanjeffs 14:23, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Latest NHC advisory puts Simon at 95 kts/966 mbar, on the cusp of major hurricane status (it could already be there, since Beven describes the 95 kt estimate as possibly conservative). At this point, Simon is doomed to become our third male major, but the question is: how strong will it get? According to Beven, Simon is moving over cooler waters, so the official NHC forecast calls for the current pace of intensification to slow down, with a peak of 105 kts, which is where Norbert and Julio ended up. However, remember that Iselle reached 120 kts in conditions that were thought to be supportive of only Category 2 intensity at best; Beven recognizes the possibility of Simon becoming stronger than anticipated. Personally, I hope Simon becomes a Category 4; if it does so, it will be the record-tying seventh of the season, and we'll only need one more later this month (or in November, if we get the Second Coming of Kenneth) to steal the record for most Category 4 hurricanes in an EPAC season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:40, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

A Kenneth 2.0 is highly unlikely to occur in any given year, and it'd take a series of odd events for it to happen this year. The season is drawing to a close and the ITCZ should be departing southward slightly earlier than nomral, lowering the odds of an active November. GFS brings this into Baja as a Cat 1. NHC track looks a little west still, but not by much. I know some are clamouring for a major, but at that time, a 5.0 from SAb, a 5.0 form 8.1.2 V ADT, and a 5.5 from TAFB supported it. For the first time ever, we get recon right when it's RIing in an EPAC storms. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:50, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Simon
Update statement issued by NHC. 100 kt winds and 952 mbar pressure as determined by Hurricane Hunters. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:56, October 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this thing has a good shot at becoming a 4, I expect Simon's peak to be near 135-140 mph at the rate it's going, but it'll probably fall short of cat 5. However, their official forecast now dissipates it before recurving to hit Baja. That would be good news since parts of Cabo are still recovering from Odile's mess last month. October has just begun YE, it's definitely not impossible we could break or tie the records for the most number of hurricanes/MH's for the EPac this year. Best-case scenario, we could get 3 more storms through the rest of the month, 2 hurricanes and 1 or both of them being majors. We won't run the entire table like 1992 did, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get to Vance or Winnie this year. Ryan1000 19:36, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

"...SIMON SAYS IT IS A MAJOR HURRICANE TO A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT..." lol.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:47, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Dammit Isaac you beat me! Up to 105 kts/950 mbar now, but the latest NHC discussion says that Simon might be about to start an EWRC... can this storm please not? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:50, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol Isaac, that's a pretty hilarious quote right there. I still hope it becomes a C4, but Simon, don't enter an EWRC! Please! Continue to strengthen and achieve C4 strength! I find it pretty incredible Simon made it this far.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:56, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Haha, very funny NHC. For the record... according to the latest forecast discussion:"Simon is the eighth major hurricane of the 2014 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season. This ties the record for major hurricanes set in 1983, 1992, and 1993." This is, of course, just from the EPac proper. 1992 had 10 majors, counting Iniki and Ekeka in the CPac. Maybe we can get two more majors through the rest of October to tie that record, let's hope so. Ryan1000 21:33, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ignore what the NHC says. Anyhow, ATCF has this up to 115 knts. This could make a run for Cat 5. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:49, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * ...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...Yep, guess so YE, this thing is now the record-tying 7th cat 4 of the season, if we get one more cat 4 later this month we'll break the 3-way tie between this year, 1992, and 1993 for having the most cat 4's in a single season. Ryan1000 02:47, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well well well, looks like my whining during Odile paid off lol. I was so caught up in praying for a male C4 that I lost sight of what Odile had - and was about to - accomplish(ed). I relented when I realized how silly I was being; fast-forward not even three weeks, and now we finally have a male C4 in Simon, which is also the season's fifth-strongest storm in terms of pressure (946 mbar, versus Cristina's 935, Amanda's 932, Odile's 922 and Marie's 918). Wouldn't it be great if Simon suddenly RI'd to become the strongest storm of the season? Yeah that's it, Simon says "f**k you, Marie!!!" --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:02, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * P.S.: Shout-out to the NHC for finally rounding 115 kts correctly to 130 mph instead of 135. Simon's the first storm since Emilia to receive that treatment. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:05, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * P.S.S.: "The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring another heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a few days." "Screw that, forget about that, I don't wanna think about anything like that" --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:12, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like Simon slipped in intensity, it's now 115 mph and forecast to continue weakening quickly as it moves over colder waters and gets sheared by that recurving trough over the next few days. Hopefully it dies before reaching Baja. Ryan1000 10:26, October 5, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Simon (2nd time)
Damn, Simon is collapsing even faster than it intensified. It's barely a C2 now, with 85-kt winds and a pressure of 972 mbar. That pressure is up 19 mbar in the past 6 hours; explosive intensification in reverse. Oh well, it was nice while it lasted! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:48, October 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * It shouldn't hit Baja at the rate it's going, it's turning northward over unfavorable conditions and slowing down significantly. Ryan1000 16:06, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Simon says it's giving up. If anything, its rate of weakening has accelerated. Now it's barely a hurricane, 65 kts/977 mbar, and the NHC says even that could be generous. Man, it's hard to believe Simon was a strengthening major hurricane not even 24 hours ago. I haven't seen such a powerful hurricane implode so spectacularly since Dora. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:37, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * I thought it was pretty insane and surprising that Simon jumped to C4 strength since my last post and is now crashing down like a rock! :O Simon says he's done and wants to fade away. Baja might get plenty of rain from Simon's remnants and it wouldn't be out of the question that us in SoCal would also get a few sprinkles from the remnants. I kinda doubt it would reach SoCal though but we might still get some moisture.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 23:53, October 5, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Simon (2nd time)
Simon is no longer a hurricane, but it's not weakening as quickly as it was before, either. 60 kts/983 mbar now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:53, October 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now 50 mph, continuing to weaken as it moves north. Should die in a day or two...well, it was nice to track while it lasted. Ryan1000 01:12, October 7, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Simon
Nearly dead.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:03, October 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, it was nice while it lasted! Bye, Simon! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:11, October 8, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Simon
Simon says die. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:41, October 8, 2014 (UTC)

Simon. You were a category 4 hurricane and now you have reached CHIPMUNK PHASE? What the bloody hell was that. rarity is best pony 18:48, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * What on earth did you expect it to do? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:17, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * I did think it was an awesome storm especially for the stunt it pulled into RIing into a C4 before it weakened really rapidly. Good night, Simon! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:42, October 10, 2014 (UTC)

AOI:Southwest of CA
20% for 5 days. Here comes Trudy... Ryan1000 01:12, October 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now 0/30. Man, this EPac season keeps producing storms nonstop!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:12, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * It seems that this AOI won't develop, but the one in the SW Caribbean, which is crossing over CA and into the EPac as we speak, will. Ryan1000 20:45, October 8, 2014 (UTC
 * They are the same thing more or less. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:13, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now at 50% for 5 days. Ryan1000 20:39, October 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * We could see Trudy out of this in the near future, probably by Sunday or something.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:43, October 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's actually now off the TWO. Wow, this was a fail AOI.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:11, October 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's not. Model support is just after the 5 day window now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:21, October 12, 2014 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Went back up to 0/30, guess there is actually a shot of this being Trudy in the near future.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:32, October 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * It was invested when you posted that, this is probably going to head due northwest towards southern Mexico. Models do have it intensifying somewhat, best-case scenario this could be a cat 1 when it makes landfall, though it's more probable it'll be a TS or TD when it arrives there. Ryan1000 19:01, October 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now it's 30/60, Trudy is coming! Hopefully it won't be a bad storm for the Mexicans in the area of Southern Mexico.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 02:59, October 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Am I the only person on this forum noticing this AOI out of the attention that Ana and especially Gonzalo are getting? This could be Trudy you guys! It is currently, 50/60 and could bring slight Mexican floods.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:39, October 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty-E
It's here, but it's only forecast to peak at 45 kts before landfall, which would break the hurricane streak. Honestly, that's fine by me; we're about to get our first EPAC 'T' storm in 22 years!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:38, October 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Trudy
Hey Trudy! How have ya been, it's been a while? 35 kts/1004 mbar right now. 21st storm of the season; I'll have to double-check, but I believe that makes this season the most active since 1992. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:24, October 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Trudy has only a slight time over water to strengthen; I'd be kinda surprised if this thing could even scrape 45 mph. The NHC forecast is taking her to the 50 mph threshold though. Mexico should be prepared for some potentially destructive floods from this, since it'll strike this weekend.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 05:02, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually decided to break my long silence to post here, but Trudy's making a massive run for hurricane intensity. Up to 60 mph/999 mbar, which breaks the original predicted peak and the SHIPS RI index is indicating a 70% chance of a 30kt intensification over 24 hours with the only constraint being the land interaction (a predicted landfall at 12 hours). On top of that, according to the discussion, an eye feature has formed in the CDO and become circular. As nasty as this looks, it's becoming clear that it forming so close to land may well be the thing that saved Mexico a worse impact. I wish them the best of luck, regardless of intensity. Jake52 (talk) 09:02, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Welcome back, Jake! Looks like Trudy moved inland faster than expected... and so ends the hurricane streak, at 13 in a row from Genevieve to Ana. It's a streak that saw several names reach hurricane strength for the first time (Karina, Rachel, Simon, and Ana), many others be assigned to their strongest incarnations yet (Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, Marie, and Odile, in addition to the aforementioned hurricane debuts), and gave us our first Category 5 Pacific hurricane since 2010 in Marie. On the other hand, Trudy's only previous incarnation was a high-end Cat 4 that roamed the Pacific for two weeks and amassed an ACE of over 44 points. Trudy's already had its success; I think we can afford the hurricane streak to end here. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:04, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Jake, welcome back! I don't even remember you posting, I guess that's because you last posted in November 2011, a couple years before I even joined. I'm surprised you still look at this wiki. Anyways, Trudy surprised me with that strengthening to 60 mph, but now that it's making landfall earlier than expected, it has officially broke the longest hurricane streak I ever seen in my life. Hopefully that area of Mexico makes it out safe.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 16:48, October 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now it's time for me to break my quiet streak...:) Anyways, Trudy has made landfall near Acapulco a few hours ago, and the Sierra Madre ranges are now seriously disrupting its circulation. Winds are now down to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg) per the NHC. A hurricane watch was put up earlier by the government of Mexico, but they've taken it down. Trudy is moving northward at a snail's pace, so it could cause a lot of flooding for Mexico's mountainous areas but fortunately dissipate rather quickly. I was quite surprised to see that RI stunt Trudy tried to pull; imagine what she could have become if she came even 12 hours earlier! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:05, October 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Winds are now down to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) for the intermediate advisory. Not much to speak of otherwise, aside from the fact the storm should die within a couple of days due to its stationery movement. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:24, October 18, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Trudy
The COC dissipated but significant flooding/mudslides are still likely. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:10, October 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * For the first time since Fausto, a named storm in EPac didn't become a hurricane. Ryan1000 07:11, October 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I assume you mean Wali, unless you were referring to storms that formed in the EPAC proper. Anyway, it's probably for the best that Trudy didn't become a hurricane, given the threat to land. Hopefully the flooding isn't too severe. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:08, October 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Trudy finally broke the huge hurricane streak and I congratulate her for that. Hopefully Mexican flooding wasn't too severe. Bye, Trudy!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 15:14, October 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah I was referring to EPac proper in that part, though including CPac Wali was the last one. Given the relatively low intensity of the storm, it's small size, and location of landfall, it's unlikely Trudy did any severe impacts to Mexico, and flooding probably wasn't too bad.Ryan1000 05:51, October 20, 2014 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
0% for now, but it's expected to go into favorable conditions and has a 40% chance of developing in 5 days. Ryan1000 20:01, October 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/80. GFS has this hitting Hawaii as a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:20, October 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's now just about to enter the CPac and the Hawaiians might be threatened in the long run. Here comes Ana (or Trudy if it unexpectedly develops rapidly)!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:13, October 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * I guess Ana can't build a snowman because not only is Elsa ignoring her, she's above water :P  leeboy100 My Talk! 18:43, October 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol did you get that from the movie Frozen? :P Anyways, this invest is crossing into the CPac and it might become Ana.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 21:19, October 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yep. Frozen. Also this has now crossed into the CPAC. should I change the header to say "CPAC" instead of "EPAC"?  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:48, October 12, 2014 (UTC)

95C.INVEST
Nah Leeboy. However, this has been renumbered; now, instead of being called 91E, it's now 95C. We'll call it 91E-95C.INVEST. Ryan1000 22:22, October 12, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-C
Actually I'm going to change the heading now anyway because according to Wunderground this is now a depression. Oh ,and we might want to watch this one because the forecast on there takes it to Hawaii as a category 1 hurricane. I want to remind everyone that Iselle was only a TS when it made landfall. If that track is correct we may have a third candidate for retirement. Yikes. leeboy100 My Talk! 21:36, October 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * And the first hurricane to hit the Big Island, Iselle was so close to doing so herself earlier this year. Fourth canidate if you consider Norbert a possibility, but anyways Ana-to be isn't looking out to be a nice storm, Hawaii rarely sees hurricanes, having a hurricane hit at this time of year is even more unprecedented than having one hit the islands period. Wind Shear is low and SST's are warm, but the air is somewhat stable surrounding this system, which may hinder its chances of getting stronger than a minimal hurricane by the time it reaches the islands. Nonetheless, this is definitely one to watch out for. Ryan1000 22:29, October 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yikes, this is not good, especially if Ana-to-be directly strikes Hawaii by the weekend like the CPHC is predicting. It should be Ana by tomorrow and I really do think we might see a retirement candidate from this lady.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:30, October 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, this should pass a bit east of the island group. Rhe GFDL and HWRF call for big time intensification, which appears likely, and move it NW rather than WNW. Hawaii should get some effects, but the core seems like it will stay offshore. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:59, October 14, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ana
Now named, the forecast track was adjusted to make it pass a little east of the islands, but it's still not expected to get stronger than C1, the environment is somewhat favorable but like I said before Ana does have some dry air to contend with, that'll lead to it heading slightly north of due west, but if that dry air doesn't last long and it intensifies a lot, then this might not be as scary for Hawaii as initially predicted. Even the GFS now turns it straight north before making landfall. Ryan1000 04:57, October 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, it's a pity that Ana couldn't wait until next year, but at least we'll probably get our first Hurricane Ana ever from this storm. And our 13th consecutive hurricane, too. I love 2014; even for the inactive Atlantic, everything that has formed (bar TD 2) has been interesting at worst (Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Fay), and thrilling at best (Arthur, Edouard, Gonzalo). And don't get me started on the Pacific; Odile was a terrible storm, but aside from that, this is hands-down my favorite EPAC season by far. Even 2011 bows to 2014. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:37, October 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * The GFS and Euro both take this storm very close, if not over, the Big Island of Hawaii by this weekend. If the atmosphere isn't as dry as it was initially thought, Ana might even have a shot at cat 2 or 3 by the time it nears the Big Island. It's quite possible that the Big Island could experience tropical storm conditions for the 2nd time this year, and 3rd time in history, if the current forecast turns out to be true. Ryan1000 18:56, October 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's hard to tell if it's going to directly make landfall on the islands of Hawaii, but if it doesn't, it's path is still going to be uncomfortably close. Oh, and I agree Dylan, this is an amazing season. Even the Atlantic is amazing, although inactive, due to every storm so far (except Dolly) becoming hurricanes. This is one to watch. Stay safe, Hawaiians. leeboy100 My Talk! 21:28, October 14, 2014 (UTC)

Actually YE, contrary to what you were saying before, if Ana intensifies further, it might actually pass south of the islands instead of northeast of them, but either way Ana's forecast track is still nerve-wracking, as it'll still bring unpleasant conditions to the islands even if it only passes close. Now it's 65 mph/997 mbars, but it'll continue to get stronger over the next few days. Dylan, Dr. Masters stated in one of his latest blog posts that, although we're nearly a month behind the average date for our 7th named storm in ATL, we're a month ahead of the average date for the 6th hurricane. Back to Ana, if this becomes a hurricane, we'll only need 1 more later this month or November to tie the record of 16, and if Ana somehow becomes a major (god forbid it make landfall in Hawaii as one though), we'll have tied the record of 10 majors with 1992. What an incredible season it's been. Ryan1000 00:14, October 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * I think we have a potential major on our hands; Ana could bring some pretty rough conditions for Hawaii by the weekend. That is, unless it RI's, then it might just pass south of the island chain. I agree with you Ryan, this is an incredible and amazing season it's been so far.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:02, October 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * As for its track, the stronger it gets more influence the trough will have and the higher the odds it hits Hawaii. CPHC track is way too slow for PR reasons. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane


 * The track has been adjusted further, now it's expected to go towards Kauai and just clip the southern end of the Big Island. Or maybe they're underestimating it, and it'll turn further north. After all, these guys aren't as good as NHC. Ana is nearly a hurricane now, with winds of 70 mph, I expect it to become one later today. Ryan1000 09:45, October 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * How many shades of grey is Ana really seeing? Nahh, she thinks Hawaii is made up of 50 grey islands.  rarity is best pony 18:11, October 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol! Anyways, Ana should be a hurricane really soon, probably by next advisory. Hawaii should still look out.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 22:34, October 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Weakened to 65 mph, and forecast to pass south of the Islands as a minimal hurricane by now. Ryan1000 11:20, October 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * ??? They still bring it very close to Kaui as a mid-grade TS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  11:49, October 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hawaii seems to be dodging a bullet here, and Ana's current intensity is 50 kt/1000 mbar. Big Island is currently under tropical storm watch, as Ana could still bring tropical storm-force winds to that area. At this point, I'm starting to doubt Ana will become a hurricane because she hasn't really managed to get her core fully established to become a hurricane, but we'll just have to see what happens regardless. Simlover123 19:27, October 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, at this point in time it's more likely Ana will pass south of the Islands. It will probably deliver some rain, surf, and winds, but most of it should be non-damaging and the core should remain south of them unless the intensity of Ana changes quickly. I do hope it becomes a minimal hurricane though, it'd suck to see the hurricane streak end at Simon. Ryan1000 19:48, October 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now it's predicted to just track away from the islands. Good, because with Gonzalo in the Atlantic we don't need destruction from Ana, just go back to building your snowman............without Elsa :(   leeboy100 My Talk! 23:59, October 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * I guess this won't impact Hawaii and instead will pass south of those guys. We don't need two TCs devastating land at the same time (Gonzalo and this)! Current forecast takes this to briefly becoming a hurricane Friday afternoon before weakening afterwards, whilst passing south of the Hawaiian island chain.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:36, October 17, 2014 (UTC)

Heavy rain is still going to be a threat to the islands even though it probably won't make landfall, especially since this one is going to bring rain to all of the islands, not just the Big Island. Ana looks better than ever now, up to 70 mph and it'll probably become a hurricane by tomorrow. The hurricane streak is about to be extended to 13, and 15 total. Ryan1000 17:20, October 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * I assume you didn't mean to make a header out of your comment, Ryan, so I fixed it for ya :P Though it is time for a new header, because...

Hurricane Ana

 * ...Ana is now a hurricane! 65 kts/990 mbar currently, forecast to peak at 70 kts. Hurricane streak extended to 13, but it should end with TD 20-E. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:35, October 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ana's predicted to be a hurricane for a while longer, up until Sunday. All of Hawaii is in a tropical storm watch even though Ana might not do much to the islands. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 05:05, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ana wasn't a hurricane just yet when I said that, but it is now. 13 consecutive hurricanes. Unless Trudy can Humbero out at the last second, it'll stop there. Good news, Ana will be passing Hawaii to the south. Bad news, they can still expect to see flooding and high winds from the outer rainbands. Ryan1000 09:34, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * The hurricane streak officially stopped since Trudy made landfall in Mexico without becoming a hurricane. That was the most massive hurricane streak I've ever seen in my life! Anyways, Ana could bring some slight Hawaiian impacts even though it's center will remain offshore. It's predicted to weaken to TS strength through Tuesday but by the end of the forecast it's predicted to restrengthen to a hurricane! Wait what? Is this trying to pull of a Genevieve (a much watered-down version of him)? --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 16:52, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * I know that, Ryan; this is what I was referring to :P Anyway, Ana peaked at 75 kts/985 mbar last night but it's a little weaker now, 70/986. The GFDL wants this to become a 928 mbar, 135 kt Category 4 at around 28N in five days. Dafuq --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:02, October 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Steve, Genny is a she! :P In regards to Ana, shear is starting to get to her, and fortunately is expected to miss the Hawaiian Islands due to a couple of ridges around the hurricane. However, I would like to mention that based on Ana's tendency to creep closer to Hawaii, she could still cause gale-force winds for Oahu and Kauai, which has not happened in years. Swells and gusty winds should be all Hawaii gets, however. And apparently, there is some hot water northwest of Hawaii!!! Can someone please explain this? Anyway, I want to commend Ana for doing something she failed to do six times in the Atlantic - become a hurricane! Come on, Beryl, you're next! ;) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:14, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Gah, I can't believe I actually headed that whole statement. Big mistake on my part. >.< Ana is still south of Hawaii, there's been reports of flooding and mudslides but nothing too serious, not even as bad as Iselle earlier this year. Since Trudy didn't become a hurricane before hitting Mexico, our record consecutive hurricane streak ends with Ana, 13 in a row. If we can get 1 more major hurricane in the next two weeks (Vance or Winnie), we'll have tied the records of 16 hurricanes and 10 major hurricanes. An incredible year for the EPac, and quite an enjoyable one to track with the exception of Odile. Ryan1000 20:41, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hurricane watches issued for Nihoa and French Frigate Shoals. TS warning for Kauai County.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  14:42, October 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * This seems a bit unusual, I don't think I've seen a strengthening hurricane this far north and striking the landmasses that Isaac mentioned. The forecast makes this weaken to 65 knots (75 mph) before restrengthening to 85 knots (100 mph) by the end of the forecast. Andrew, I guess that's why it's forecast to get stronger at such a high latitude! Apparantly there's some very warm water northwest of Hawaii that could allow Ana to possibly explode. Also Andrew, thanks for correcting that error, I kinda forgot about Genny's gender :P--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 15:18, October 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Although Ana is weakening, it remains a hurricane and is still bringing some rain to Hawaii. The relatively unpopulated French Frigate Shoals and Midway Islands northwest of Hawaii (with the exception of some military bases) shouldn't get too much from Ana. Ryan1000 22:52, October 19, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ana (2nd time)
Down to 70 mph. Forecast to continue weakening from here, until it is northwest of Hawaii, by then Ana could become a hurricane again. Ryan1000 05:51, October 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * As unrealistic as the GFDL solution (well, the run I mentioned above) may seem... I really hope it comes into fruition. Ana will be pointed at nothing but open ocean by then, and it would be our record-tying 10th major of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:17, October 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is completely irrelevant, but last night I had a dream that Beryl '12 was upgraded to a hurricane in re-analysis (might have been sparked by the fact that Ana and Beryl have never been hurricanes in the Atlantic). This morning (EDT) I went so far as to check Wikipedia and the NHC's site to make sure it was real. I think I'm on this wiki a little too often for my own good lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:39, October 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hawaiians be like: "GO AWAY ANA!"
 * Ana be like: "Ok bye"
 * rarity is best pony 15:40, October 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * Great dream you had there Dylan! :) And Liz it looks like Ana is listening to you, it's going away from Hawaii! Anywho, it should restrengthen to a hurricane by mid-week and the forecast weakens it back to a TS by the weekend as it gets into some high latitudes.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:28, October 21, 2014 (UTC)

It seems that Ana has spared Hawaii from any significant impacts and she is now going into the Midway Islands northwest of Hawaii, where she'll die out soon enough. Iselle was far worse for Hawaii than Ana, and even that storm didn't cause too much damage, at least it seems. Ryan1000 19:23, October 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * I must say that the shear has dealt a much greater blow to Ana than initially expected. At one point, Ana was forecast to be a minimal hurricane around this time; instead, it's a minimal tropical storm (35 kts/1005 mbar). I'm beginning to question if Ana will live to see the forecast extratropical transition, which I really want to happen because it's so rare for the EPAC. (Julio almost pulled it off, but it lost convection too quickly and died a tropical death instead.) For what it's worth, Ana has lived for 8 days, and it's forecast to make it to 12 before becoming extratropical. The longest time spent in the CPAC by a TC that formed there is 11.5 days, a record held by Uleki of 1988. We'll see what Ana does to challenge that record; it certainly seems to be making a concerted run at it. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:33, October 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * It would be pretty cool if Ana can achieve that longevity feat. It's got a shot to make it, c'mon Ana! However, since the wind shear is ripping it apart, Ana might not restrengthen to hurricane status. CPHC takes it back up to 50 kts/60 mph before extratropical transition. Like you said above, it's rare for the EPac and I don't think I've ever seen that in the basin before. The Midway Islands might also feel some impacts but nothing significant. Well Ana, you're a weird system. I guess it won't restrengthen to hurricane status just because of this shear. But I still root for it to get as strong as possible during it's final show, c'mon Ana, it's still possible for you to become a hurricane IMO! ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) (I'd just thought I use that absolutely amazing emoticon) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:10, October 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * It'll probably last a little longer before dissipating, although I don't expect Ana to restrengthen. If anything Ana might make it up to 45 mph or so before dying out, but at this point in time all it'll do is affect fish 'n ships (no pun intended) while it's well out to sea. Oh well, it was nice to track while it lasted. Ryan1000 21:00, October 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * It continues to linger and should be extratropical by the weekend. After that the extratropical remnants are predicted to move to the northeast very rapidly (o_o) and approach southeastern Alaska.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 04:01, October 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still kinda just doing its thing. Up to 50 kts/999 mbar as it completes its 11th day of existence. Uleki's record is pretty much doomed to fall at this point. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:43, October 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Uleki is about to give his crown to Ana. It keeps lingering but it should die soon. And the forecast takes it directly towards British Columbia as an extratropical system so they might need to look out for heavy rains! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 23:26, October 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * More than just her intensity and longevity - Ana is actually trying to redevelop an eye in its eastern quadrant. Too bad it's over modest shear and marginal SST's; I would have loved to see another hurricane. Regardless, I applaud her for trying so hard and pulling a Karina out of the hat. Aside from a sewage spill in Honolulu Harbor, I doubt anything will be memorable from Ana. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, October 25, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Ana (2nd time)
Ana made you eat your words, Andrew.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:22, October 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * And mine...why must they always do the unexpected? Oh well...looks like Ana is picking up speed though, it should begin weakening again very soon. Ryan1000 07:45, October 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Whoa, what just happened? Ana's winds are back up at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h), and its pressure has fallen to 987 mbar (hPa; 29.15 inHg). On top of that, she has tied Uleki's record as the TC that spent the most time in the CPAC. What's going on? It looks Ana may try to reach North America - an anticyclone to its SE and the trough from the NW will make sure the hurricane has the pace to do so. Sadly, despite marginal shear conditions, Ana is forecast to weaken to a TS within the next several hours and lose a lot of its deep convection. Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) data supports extratropical transition tomorrow. However, Ana might be able to create more history. Assuming she passes 40N like the latest CPHC forecast graphic illustrates, it will be only the fifth EPAC or CPAC TC on record to maintain TC status north of that latitude, after Dot '70, the 1975 Pacific Northwest hurricane, John '94, Guillermo '97, and Wene '00. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:41, October 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * It ate my words too. It actually restrengthened to a HURRICANE?? Didn't expect that :| --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:02, October 25, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ana (3rd time)
Back down to a TS (60 kts/986 mbar), but it's now a full day past Uleki's now-former record, lasting for 12.5 days thus far. Also, the latest advisory is Ana's 50th. Does anyone know of any other TCs that had the CPHC issue at least 50 advisories on them? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:58, October 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * As far as I can remember, none have lasted longer in the CPac, but there have been a few storms in the EPac with more advisories. Also, their latest forecast takes it to British Columbia while still tropical. If that somehow manages to happen, Ana will be the northernmost landfalling storm on record in the EPac. Ryan1000 09:56, October 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hurricane John in 1994 had some 120 advisories pinned to it, but this was across all three basins. Anyway, Ana has become much less symmetric, and tons of dry air and shear are being ingested into the system. Winds are down to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with a pressure of 989 mbar (hPa; 29.21 inHg) per the CPHC. As SW flow steers Ana more NE, it should become extratropical tonight and merge with a stronger gale low. Ryan, that is an error on the CPHC's part; Ana should be absorbed into the low by then. Also, for trivia, Ana is the third strongest storm in EPAC history to exist north of 40N, after the unnamed 1975 hurricane and John '94. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:59, October 26, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ana
And Ana's interesting, 12.75-day life draws to a close with the first extratropical transition in the EPAC/CPAC since... who knows? Hats off. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:50, October 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well there's no hope for it to make landfall now, but this was an interesting storm to track nonetheless. Now Vance is next in line... Ryan1000 18:14, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ana's finally dead. It was a record-breaker and interesting storm, and is also the new CPac longevity record holder. Bye Ana!!! :) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 19:40, October 26, 2014 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
30% for 5 days. Vance, anyone? Ryan1000 01:19, October 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS and Euro show this. But it kinda depends on what happens to ex-Nine as we have a complex setup in the WCARB. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:04, October 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this might be Vance in the next couple days unless the complex setup YE mentioned inhibits development.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 04:03, October 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/50. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:02, October 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/60. Here comes Vance!!! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 23:27, October 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * If anything, I hope the new AOI ties the EPAC hurricane record. Unfortunately, it is over unfavorable conditions for the weekend, which may hinder development. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:13, October 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Conditions are actually going to be more favorable mid-week so I don't see why this won't be Vance. It's got a chance. (They rhyme lol)--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 19:59, October 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/70 :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:27, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/80, Vance is coming... Ryan1000 09:57, October 26, 2014 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
The AOI has been invested per Wunderground. I root for additional intensification, which looks like it should occur. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:01, October 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * The conditions are choice and the chances are high. It looks like we're on the verge of seeing our first V storm since 1992. When (and if, but more likely when) Vance forms, the 2014 season will stand alone as the fourth most active season in terms of named storms (it's currently tied with 83, 84, and 90). By the way, thanks for the welcome back in the Trudy section! Glad to come back! Jake52 (talk) 16:08, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Don't root for RI. This is bad. The GFS shows landfall by day 9 while the Euro shows it by day 10. The FIM moves this very slowly but starts to turn by day 10. The NOGAPS focuses ex-94L while the CMC keeps this W for the next 10 days. But more importantly, conditions are very favorable to further development. This should have no problems becoming a hurricane, and if MX is unlucky, a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:24, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ack... Sorry. The only times I root for RI is when the storm is out in the middle of nowhere (Genevieve) so that you just want to see something special and nobody gets hurt, and when I posted it, I wasn't aware that there was a landfall being agreed on. Knowing that, this becomes a lot more unsettling. Jake52 (talk) 17:36, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * EDIT: Found the GFS you were mentioning. Unless I'm misreading it, not only does it take Vance into Mexico as a strong storm...only a scant amount of time later, the same area gets hit by what, assumedly, would be Winnie. So it's not just a question of how strong, but how many. I hope Vance A) doesn't intensify as much before hitting, and B) causes a good enough amount of cold wake to keep the possible Winnie from getting too strong. Jake52 (talk) 17:45, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, this isn't good...the only good news is Mexico has a lot of time to prepare before this one makes landfall, unlike Odile earlier this year, which was originally forecast to remain offshore but instead hit Cabo San Lucas directly as a strong cat 3 and caused 2-4 billion in damage (according to Aon Benfield's September report, see the retirements section below). If this does become a major, Vance will mark a tie for the record number of majors in a single season, and the record number of hurricanes as well. Ryan1000 18:23, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 30/80, here comes Vance! If it becomes a major Mexico might get lots of destruction from this, look out Mexico :O --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 19:38, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * As for the 2nd system, 1) the GFS is suffering from MJO-related convective feeedback issues 2 weeks out 2) it is 384 hours out anyway. CMC keeps this OTS still, but all models agree on the same setup. The question is when not, if that this strikes MX. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:16, October 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90! :D Like we all know, this might be a threat to Mexico in the long run, and they might need to look out for potential impacts as it has the potential to be as strong as maybe a major.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:36, October 28, 2014 (UTC)

Near 100%? Really NHC? Just upgrade the little bugger already. The long range forecast for this storm is a tricky one, but if it does recurve and hit Mexico, hopefully it weakens significantly before landfall, like the last two incarnations of Hurricane Paul did. The last thing they need is another big major hurricane not even two months after Odile. Ryan1000 20:28, October 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still at 100% per NHC, still a disturbance per ATCF. NHC is citing the lack of a closed circulation as the reason why this thing isn't a cyclone yet. The circulation does look rather elongated, and there's not much wind on the southwest side. I can see why the NHC is holding off, though I must say that I can't recall them pegging 100% to something for so long without initiating advisories on it, at least not in the EPAC. I do recall that the precursor to Emily '11 was at 100% before going back down prior to its eventual classification, but I don't think it held that percentage for as long as 93E has. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:53, October 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * A total of one day near 100% have never saw it before that a system with that percentage took time to develop.Allanjeffs 17:49, October 29, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E
...and after a dragged-out period of none-development, it finally became a depression. One only hopes the vast amount of time it took getting together threw away its shot at higher intensities before the landfall. Jake52 (talk) 10:02, October 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope so, but with the way many of the storms in this year's season have intensified well beyond their initial expected intensities, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes the season's record-tying 16th hurricane and/or 10th major hurricane. Ryan1000 10:14, October 30, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Vance
...VANCE IS THE 20TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON..." 22nd actually, but damn... Expected to ad-vance into a 70 kt hurricane in a few days. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:03, October 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Ha, nice pun there. First time since 1992 for an EPac season to hit the "V" name, hopefully we can get Winnie before the season's over too. Ryan1000 02:59, October 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hilarious pun there, Dylan! Anyways, looks like we finally have Vance after waiting so long at near 100%, and it's predicted to gradually strengthen. We could see a hurricane by Sunday according to NHC's forecast before it sharply recurves towards Mexico by the end of the forecast period. I really can't believe we're at the "V" name now, this is just an insane season! Like Ryan, hopefully we get Winnie before the season's end. This is the most insane Pacific season I've ever tracked in my life! 😯 Oh and I also have a new signature for...guess the holiday? Yep, Happy Halloween everybody! 😀 Hopefully you guys like this new sig that is a variation of my previous sig expect that I changed the colors to go with the Halloween spirit and many other parts were also changed. To see the last 2 characters in my signature correctly you guys have got to download this extension for Google Chrome, these last 2 characters are a ghost and a jack-o-lantern and they are emojis. I might also start using emojis instead of regular emoticons because I think they look interesting, so keep the extension installed from now on if you want to enjoy my comments. That is, unless you're viewing with a smartphone, then you don't have to download anything because you could already see the emojis.--<font face="Showcard Gothic"> Steve820  | Happy  Halloween!   🎃👻 04:35, October 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Vance might not become a hurricane at the pace its going, looks like wind shear and dry air make him a number and unless he cover his center it might very well become a td or remnant low. Btw I actually think we will get Winnie. Btw I never understood how to change my signature always want to but don;t know how. I don't even know how my signature is right now.Allanjeffs 19:24, October 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * I guess...Vance's circulation is exposed now due to shear and it might not be a hurricane at all unless it gets its act together. Allan, you can change your sig or other features by scrolling the mouse over your username at the top right corner of the screen and clicking on "my preferences". Ryan1000 20:14, October 31, 2014 (UTC)

AOI.West of Vance
10/20, has a slight chance to become something before shear kicks up in a day or two. Ryan1000 20:14, October 31, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:33, September 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iselle - 60% - If they tried to retire Daniel, they would try to do this too.
 * Odile - 70% - Significant damage in Baja California, mostly due to rushed preparations.
 * Everything else - 0% - Meh.

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * 4) Douglas 0% Was okay.
 * 5) Elida 0% Fail
 * 6) Fausto 0% an epic epic epic fail.
 * 7) Wali 0% See Elida
 * 8) Geneive 1% just an epic long track, but it aint going anywhere
 * 9) Hernan 0% fish system
 * 10) Iselle 35% Very tricky. Hawaii is super lenient, but they'll never had a middle of the ground storm like this. They'll request probs though.
 * 11) Julio 1% For passing north of Hawaii
 * 12) Karina 0% fish system, but one hec of a storm to track
 * 13) Lowell 0% Cute structure
 * 14) Marie 10% $14 mil in damage 3 deaths, but not likely. Very fun to track though.
 * 15) Norbert 15% Severe ($100 m) damage in both Baja and Arizona, but I can't see this going
 * 16) Odile 60% This totally deserves to go. Cat 3 into Baja, c'mon. Nearly 1 billion in damage and 15-16 deaths. But MX has a poor track record.
 * 17) Polo 2% 1 dead and 7.5 mil in damage aint gonna cut it
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 01:38, October 28, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.
 * Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired.
 * Elida: 1% - It actually did cause some slight impacts, but it's certainly not going and will be back in 2020.
 * Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said
 * Wali: -∞% - See Fausto
 * Genevieve - 0.1% - Very freakin awesome, especially because it was a weak TS for a couple weeks before exploding into a Category 5!!! Wow! It didn't affect land though but it gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness.
 * Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen.
 * Iselle: 60% - Hawaii's third costliest storm and strongest Big Island landfall ever. It was also a fun-to-track Category 4. Due to these Hawaiian impacts and their retirement standards, it has a good shot at going.
 * Julio: 0% - Fun to track and pulled a surprising stunt on us near the end by re-strengthening to a hurricane in high latitudes, but since it didn't affect land Julio will come back in 2020.
 * Karina: 0% - Just a typical minimal hurricane without affecting land. Pulled a Douglas/Julio out of the hat and lasted longer than expected.
 * Lowell: 0% - Didn't affect land
 * Marie: 0% - Awesome Cat. 5 but not going due to lack of land effects.
 * Norbert: 15% - Flooding in Arizona and effects in Baja, but I'm still a bit positive that it won't be retired. This is no laughing matter though.
 * Odile: 70% - Strongest Baja landfall ever, and very destructive for the region. It has a fairly decent shot at being retired.
 * Polo: 1% - A death and some slight damage, but I really don't think it would be retired.
 * Rachel: 0% - She didn't cause affects on land so it's safe to say she won't be retired and will be back for 2020.
 * Simon: 0% - Awesome for RI-ing to C4 strength, but since it didn't affect land, Simon says it will return in 2020.
 * Ana: 1% - Even though it's longevity was incredible, it didn't cause much impacts and a retirement is completely not happening. Still, tack a 1% just in case.
 * Trudy: 5% - Only slight damages, just a typical TS for Mexico.


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Leeboy's epic prediction for hurricane retirement (EPAC)


 * Amanda: 1%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land. (Updated to 1% due to the deaths in Mexico)
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- 1% damage wasn't too bad
 * Douglas- 0% no
 * Elida-0% NO
 * Fausto-0% NO
 * Wali-0% I didn't even know this storm existed.
 * Genevieve- 0% Just like Amanda. Impressive storm that didn't affect land.
 * Hernan-0% it became a hurricane. That's about it
 * Iselle-55%- Due to its effects on Hawaii ( $53 million  now up to $66 million and fortunately only 1 death) it has a good chance at retirement. Although the WMO is strange at retiring EPAC names. However, it's safe to say Hawaii will probably request retirement.
 * Julio-0% an interesting storm to track that almost hit Hawaii.
 * Karina-0% The only reason I can think of that could get this name retired is sounding too much like "Katrina" but no.
 * Lowell-0% See Hernan
 * Marie-0% an amazing cat. 5. Like her sisters Amanda and Genevieve it didn't affect land though
 * Norbert    30%  caused 5 deaths and flooding, and it could be upgraded if there is more confirmed damage and deaths   still only 5 confirmed deaths but damage is $100 million, there have  been past storms that have caused bigger losses have NOT been retired (Jimena in 2009 comes to mind) so this may or may not be retired.
 * Odile- 75% as Ryan said in his retirement post before he updated it, Odile "kicked the shit out of baja" so far Odile has caused (as of September 20, 2014) the deaths of 5 people and 4 people to go missing. Damage is actually unknown but the article from wikipedia says damage may exceed $906.4 million!!!  and that doesn't include the damge in Arizona from the remnants. Despite all the snubbing of other storms in the EPAC, this will be retired,and if it isn't then the WMO has some kind of mental condition. And who can forget this picture: icyclone Odile damage
 * Polo-1% caused one death in Mexico
 * Rachel-0% Nothing to really say here, it wasn't a fail but didn't affect land
 * Simon-0% an amazing (male..finally) hurricane but it didn't affect land either

leeboy100 My Talk! 21:40, October 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

Time for my thoughts:

East Pacific:


 * Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic.
 * Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said.
 * Douglas - 0% - ^^
 * Elida - 1% - Actually it did cause some minor damage here and there, so it's not a 0%.
 * Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more?
 * Genevieve - 0% - My god, what a storm! Who could've guessed that Genevieve would go from being a weakling TS that died twice in the CPac to becoming a category 5 super typhoon and the most powerful storm worldwide in 2014. It showed all of us what happens when you keep trying and don't give up. :) All while it was far out to sea, with no damage or casualties reported.
 * Hernan - 0% - Well hey, at least we finally got another hurricane...
 * Iselle - 50% - Eh, sue me. I really don't know what to think of Iselle's chances for retirement. While Iselle killed a person and caused 66 million in damage (making it Hawaii's 3rd costliest storm after Iwa and Iniki), those numbers don't appear to be too high on paper and the post-storm media hype with this one didn't last as long as it did with past U.S. landfalling storms. I'd say it's a toss-up -- It could very well be retired for its unique nature and so-called "unprecedented" impacts on the Big Island, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if it's not retired since the damage and death toll weren't too extreme. We'll see what the WMO says.
 * Julio - 0% - Total fishspinner, but I'm surprised it went up to a hurricane again in the far north Central Pacific.
 * Karina - 0% - Another hurricane, but well away from any land.
 * Lowell - 0% - The remnants did bring some rain to southern California, but no damages or deaths were reported. In fact, it was probably beneficial to them since they've been in a severe drought for most of this year.
 * Marie - 6% - 6th strongest EPac storm on record, and strongest August storm ever (second if you count Ioke '06), but unfortunately Marie killed 3 people and caused 14 million in damage due to her large offshore swells. Not something to write off as a total fishspinner, but it's not enough for retirement either.
 * Norbert - 23% - Caused extreme flooding over parts of Arizona (100 million, to be precise) and other areas of the southwestern U.S. Five deaths on top of that give Norbert an outside shot, but as past storms like Paul '82 and Octave '83 showed, the impacts caused by the precursor/remnants of a storm don't usually count for retirement, unfortunately. Still upping the percent a bit since the numbers do merit mentioning.
 * Odile - 88% - Aon Benfield's disaster report for September 2014 came out recently (also visible on Dr. Master's lastest blog post), and Odile now ranks as the 12th costliest disaster worldwide in 2014, with anywhere from 2 to 4 billion dollars in damage, as well as 5 deaths. This makes it one of the costliest hurricanes in Mexico's history, and the worst hurricane to hit Cabo San Lucas. Odile will most likely be retired now.
 * Polo - 1% - The outer rainbands did cause flooding in southern Mexico which led to 7.5 million dollars in damage and 1 death, so, like Elida, it isn't a complete fail, but it's still not going to be retired.
 * Rachel - 0% - Yet another hurricane, but was well away from land.
 * Simon - 2% - Minor damage at most, and no deaths reported.
 * Trudy - 5% - Minor impacts overall, nothing unusual for Mexico.

Central Pacific:

And there you have it. Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Ana - 3% - Minor impacts at most.
 * Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Alright, here are mine as of June 30:
 * Amanda — <1% Nope.
 * Boris — ≤1% Nope.
 * Cristina — <1% Nope.
 * Douglas — <1% Nope.
 * Elida — ≤1% Probably nope.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel.
 * 2) Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub.
 * 3) Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe.
 * 4) Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay.
 * 5) Elida - 0.5% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she only caused little damage to resorts along Mexico's coast.
 * 6) Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway.
 * 7) Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto.
 * 8) Genevieve - 0% - I am very impressed by the show Genevieve gave us. I remember when we were first calling the storm a pathetic fail (not me, at least!) and just saying it sucked when she poofed away. Then Genny tried hard to prove us wrong and she only got so far again. So she passed away again, but her spirit still stayed with her, and she refused to give up hope. Finally, she did what every EPAC system dreams of doing - live in all three basins and become a modest Category 5 hurricane. It was worth the struggle. Genny accomplished her dream, and even better, harmed no one. While we know she isn't going, she was a very impressive system for her age and day.
 * 9) Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years.
 * 10) Iselle - 60% - Well, Miss Iselle is going to be a tricky one. She started off real excited and attained C4 intensity in a region that normally could only handle a C2. Then she did the annular trick and went straight to Hawaii's doorstep as a moderate TS. Her landfall on the Big Island is the strongest one to ever occur. And that obviously didn't go without impact. Damaging surf and strong winds around Hilo downed a number of trees and unroofed some houses. Over 20,000 are without power due to all the power lines Iselle downed. Of strong note is what happened in Puna; the power failure in a geothermal plant has released toxic hydrogen sulfide gases into the air, which could suffocate dozens. Currently, one fatality has been reported from the hurricane, and damage reports are at $53 million (2014 USD). Call me overcasting, but Hawaii requested Flossie '07 and Daniel '06 for retirement, both of which caused effectively nothing. Iselle, however, has left a huge mark for Hawaii, and it's likely going based on their retirement standards.
 * 11) Julio - 0% - Julio was a very impressive major hurricane and shocked me with his little re-intensification stunt. However, no land impacts, so no retirement for him.
 * 12) Karina - 0% - Karina fought long and strong for two weeks against everything that could have killed her. But no impacts, so she's not moving a muscle.
 * 13) Lowell - 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly, but caused nothing.
 * 14) Marie - 5% - Actually, Marie was a little more impacting than some of you think. The Mexican state of Oaxaca declared a disaster due to all the flooding and landslides, and two people were swept out to sea. Santa Catalina Island reported huge boulders tossed onshore and docked boats were ripped off their stands, which caused $10+ million (2014 USD) in losses. There was also a fatality in Malibu from someone hit by a rock. Marie was surely impressive as a Category 5, but it didn't leave nothing behind.
 * 15) Norbert - 30% - Well, the Ridgeback sure caused something. A dam failure occurred northwest of Puerto San Carlos, and three people were swept away from floodwaters across northern Mexico. In California, damage was also notable, with many flooded freeways and stranded vehicles. But the worst happened in Arizona. Sky Harbor Airport in Pheonix recorded in seven hours an entire summer's worth of rainfall. Also, southern areas of the city suffered many closed streets and thousands of customers were powerless in Pheonix and Mesa. As a matter of fact, water levels were so high in Tucson that pumping stations couldn't handle the stress. Flooding was described as the worst in Arizona since 1970, and similarly, rainfall in Nevada caused the worst problems for Moapa Valley in over a century. Five fatalities and all that impact makes Norbert a great candidate for retirement, but if Kathleen in 1976 or Nora in 1997 stayed, well, who knows.
 * 16) Odile - 75% - For a storm that was supposed to turn away from land, what in the name of Neptune happened?! Over 90% of Baja California was without power, and thousands of tourists were stranded, not to mention the felled trees and power lines. Even Manuel and Olivia (1967) pale in comparison to some of the damage pictures I saw from Odile in Mexico. Additionally, New Mexico and Texas were swamped by this swan. Although 15 deaths is quite impressive for a storm of this magnitude, $906.4 million in losses (2014 USD) makes Odile among Mexico's costliest hurricanes, and she deserves to go.
 * 17) Polo - 1% - Polo damaged dozens of restaurants, killed a tourist, and caused $7.5 million (2014 USD) in losses, but that's all I can say about him.
 * 18) Rachel - 0% - Congrats for your hurricane debut, but you're going nowhere.
 * 19) Simon - 0.1% - Thanks for becoming an overall harmless Category 4, but the "unknown" damage totals mean you are staying put as well.
 * 20) Ana - TBA - Still Active
 * 21) Trudy - 3% - Landslides and flooding evacuated thousands in Guerrero and killed eight. However, Mexico has evicted much worse, and I doubt she will be remembered.

We have enough storms for me:
 * Eastern Pacific
 * Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise.
 * Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is.
 * Douglas: 0% -
 * Elida: 0% 1% -
 * Actually, there was some impact after all, but it was only minor.


 * Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm*
 * Genevieve: 0% - Epic win for the intensity it reached after struggling for nearly two weeks, but it steered clear of land areas.
 * Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally.
 * Iselle: 51% - With Daniel '06 and Flossie '07, Hawaii proved itself willing to request the retirement of anything that dares to breathe on them. Since Iselle actually hit them - and made its mark, too - then if Hawaii submits Iselle for consideration, the WMO may be more likely to oblige this time around.
 * Julio: 0% - Kudos for becoming a major hurricane and surviving relatively far north for a Pacific hurricane, but like I said about Cristina, a fish is a fish is a fish.
 * Karina: 0% - Fishspinner, but it was also the EPAC's longest-lasting storm in a while. Two weeks is difficult to pull off in this part of the world, and for that, Karina deserves kudos.
 * Lowell: 0% - Became a hurricane when it was thought that its large size would preclude it from doing so, but other than that, not much to see here. I haven't heard of any adverse affects from Lowell's supposed moisture enhancement in the southeastern United States.
 * Marie: 4% - It's a pity that this storm couldn't go entirely without impact, but it was still amazing to watch.
 * Norbert: 20% - Caused terrible flooding in the southwestern United States, but historically speaking (Kathleen '76, Octave '83, etc.), that has not been enough for retirement. We'll see, though.
 * Odile: 55% 70% - This is a preliminary estimate that could go up or down depending on whether or not the damage at the Holiday Inn where the iCyclone team is staying is commonplace, but one thing's for sure: unless we get something even worse later on, this is most likely the storm of this year's EPAC season. And Odile is still a strong hurricane trekking up Baja as I type this. Who knows how bad the damage and death toll could be when it's all said and done.
 * The damage is commonplace. That 70% assumes a low death toll from this thing. If Odile killed as many people as I'm afraid it did, it's an 85%.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Polo: 2% - Minor.
 * Rachel: 0% - Fishspinner, but hey, it became the first Hurricane Rachel ever!
 * Simon: <1% - Impressive intensity, negligible (if any) impact.
 * Trudy: 3% - Even Boris was worse.
 * Central Pacific
 * Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often.
 * Ana: Currently active, though I do give it credit for becoming a hurricane after failing to do so for many, many years in the Atlantic.

Here's mine: - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it.
 * Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough.
 * Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed.
 * Elida: 0% - She didn't even try.
 * ??? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * My predictions for this season.


 * Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement.
 * Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying.
 * Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show.
 * Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed.
 * Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm.
 * Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam.
 * Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening.
 * Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying.

Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her.
 * Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one.
 * Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land.
 * Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast.
 * Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail.
 * Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all
 * Genevieve: 0% She make a feat of living in the three basins and becoming a ts in the first a cat 4 in the second and a cat 5 in the last but she is staying as she didn't affect land
 * Hernan: 0% Just because he was a hurricane doesn't mean he is a candidate for retirement. He did nothing at all.
 * Iselle: 40% not bad but the 2nd most damaging stom until now.
 * Julio:  0% not much can we say
 * Karina:0% Logetivity does not mean retirement
 * Lowell:0 nop you are staying
 * Marie:1% 3 deaths is nothing to joke but she is staying
 * Norbert 5% Flooding was an issue but Baja just saw worse with Odile and USA have seen worse too.
 * Odile: 75% Baja California suffer from this a lot I just saw pics and videos the airport was really damaged and there appears extensive damage. Knowing Mexico it might ask for retirement but it could still not ask they did snoob Karl but seeing how paicific landfalls are rarer it might be the catalyst for Mexico to ask for her.
 * Polo 1% Kill one but to be honest couldn't even remember his track.
 * Rachel 0% She is staying, no impacts at all
 * Simon 0% Amazing cat 4 but he is not leaving either
 * Trudy 5% Kill 8 but as previously state Mexico have seen much worse, ex Odile but she was awesome as her remnants give life To ts Hanna in the Atlantic.
 * Vance????
 * Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee.
 * Ana 0% Could have seen much worse if she had make landfall in Hawaii like models were predicting but she did a feat becoming the 4th or 3rd storm to live so far north.
 * Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Amanda = 10% Too cool for retirement.
 * Boris = 1% Even Boris Johnson thought this storm was nothing special.
 * Cristina = 5% She is beautiful, no matter what you say, but she aint movin.
 * Douglas = -3% Next!
 * Elida = -10% Yawn.
 * Fausto = -821973892638742748% -grabs vomit bucket-
 * Genevieve = 10% Super ADHD storm for the win!
 * Hernan = Yawn%

“i liek turtlez 14:53, August 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here's my prediction


 * HERE WE GO!

Replacement Names
Although it's not a guarantee, there is a possibility Iselle could be retired due to its impacts on Hawaii. That being said, what are your thoughts on possible replacement names for Iselle? My suggestions are: Out of these suggestions (feel free to post more), I would pick Inga. Ryan1000 01:24, August 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ivy
 * Isha
 * Isla
 * Indira
 * Ines
 * Ivana
 * Ilene
 * Ivette
 * Ilsa
 * Isabela
 * Inga
 * Ilse
 * Ivonne
 * Ivanna


 * I'm not completely sure Iselle is doomed to go, but here are my top ten suggestions -


 * Iggy
 * Innocente
 * Iphigenia
 * Isabel
 * Ione
 * Isuelt
 * Irmelin
 * Inmaculada
 * Ilse
 * Imelia

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC) Like Iggy Azealea? Fancy name. Anyway, I thought of Imani. “i liek turtlez 16:24, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think Isabel and anything too similar is out of the question since the name was retired from the Atlantic lists only a decade ago. My top pick would be Ione - also retired in the Atlantic, but that was nearly 6 decades ago, and the name was subsequently used in the Pacific several times before male names were introduced. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:56, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iggy is good.71.187.142.27 16:31, August 22, 2014 (UTC) I was thinkin'that Iggy would kill mario for 2019.

Here's my suggestions:


 * Ivy
 * Ivana
 * Ivette
 * Iggy
 * Ione
 * Imelia
 * Ilsa
 * Isla
 * Inga
 * Ivonne

Ones that I like the most are in bold. It would also be cool to have a system named after Iggy Azalea. :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 16:48, August 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Or Iggy Pop. I'd much rather have Iggy used in a male context for that reason :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * What about Odile? We could have, Odessa, Odilia (lol), or maybe... for the bronies out there... OCTAVIA. WE NEED OCTAVIA! ANYONE WITH ME?  rarity is best pony 18:51, September 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hmm...if the current damage reports from Odile do turn out to be within the range of several billion dollars, then yes, she's gone. My suggestions for Odile are as follows:


 * Osana
 * Orma
 * Orna
 * Omena
 * Oliana
 * Olivie
 * Opalina
 * Ohanna
 * Olina

Olivie might be too close to Olivia, but otherwise, out of these suggestions, I would go with Olina. Ryan1000 20:39, September 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * My vote goes to Odessa, with Orchid as a runner-up. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:46, September 16, 2014 (UTC)

Here are my suggestions:

Iselle:
 * Ilaria
 * Imelda
 * Immacolata
 * Ines
 * Italia
 * Ilda
 * India
 * Iolanda
 * Irma
 * Isabella
 * Ivy

Norbert: (may have a chance at retirement due to AZ flooding, but I wouldn't count on it)
 * Nazario
 * Nevio
 * Nico
 * Nicola
 * Nino
 * Natalio
 * Nathan
 * Najee
 * Naldo
 * Narisco
 * Ned
 * Neil
 * Nerio
 * Newton
 * Nick
 * Nicky
 * Nicodemo
 * Nigel
 * Nils
 * Noah
 * Norton

Odile:
 * Orabella
 * Orlanda
 * Ornella
 * Orsola
 * Odalis
 * Octavia
 * Odelia
 * Ottavia

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:10, September 16, 2014 (UTC)

YES TO OCTAVIA! You're going to make this cellist and Vinyl they happiest fillies alive. GO OCTAVIA! rarity is best pony 22:34, September 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Not sure if Norbert'll go, but in the event it does, I would pick Neil as his replacement, with my personal runner-ups being Nico or Nigel. I would've picked Newton but unfortunately he's already on the EPac naming lists, scheduled for use in 2016. Irma and Imelda are currently in use in the Atlantic, being the replacements of Irene and Ingrid, respectively, and I find India very unlikely due to the country, similar to Israel which was removed in 2001. I still stick with Inga as my primary choice for Iselle, with a close runner-up being Ivy, and my runner-ups for Olina would be Ornella or Ora. Ryan1000 22:44, September 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Picking out of Andros' list, I would prefer Octavia for Odile and Nathan or Neil for Norbert. I don't think Norbert will be retired though.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 23:28, September 16, 2014 (UTC)

My top 3 choices for each name are as follows:
 * Iselle
 * 1) Ione
 * 2) Ivette
 * 3) Inga


 * Norbert
 * 1) Niko (the name of one of my closest friends)
 * 2) Neil
 * 3) Nigel


 * Odile
 * 1) Odessa
 * 2) Opalina
 * 3) Orchid

Also, I'm not a big fan of Karina being on the list because of its similarity to Katrina (though I acknowledge that Karina was added to the list more than two years before Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast), so I'd like to see Kendra on the list instead :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:32, September 28, 2014 (UTC)

My replacements, again, are Iggy for Iselle and Oratia for Odile. I doubt Norbert will be retired, but Noah is my suggestion for him. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:36, October 25, 2014 (UTC)

Post-season changes
The first TCR of the season was released on the 12th, so I figured it was time to start this section. Boris's strength was upped to 40 kts/998 mbar (from the operational peak of 35 kts/999 mbar). It also never made landfall - while it was operationally believed to have done so, post-analysis found that the low-level center actually remained offshore, coming within 20 nmi of the coast before dissipating. No deaths were reported from Boris while it was a tropical cyclone, but the precursor disturbance killed 5 in Guatemala. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks Like Cristina and Elida are now out. Nothing's particularly special intensity-wise, but the NHC report did say there was some extensive beach erosion and damage to hotels along the southern Mexican coast from Elida, so it looks like she wasn't a complete fail. Updated to include her a 1%. Ryan1000 20:25, August 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * I wasn't expecting that much impact from Elida. Guess she wasn't so pathetic after all. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:35, August 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fausto is out, nothing special though. Ryan1000 17:57, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda's has been released, it remains a strong cat 4, though the ACE has changed a bit. As for the Atlantic...as of now, none are released yet, but if we don't get significant activity soon, with only 5 storms thus far, I'll bend the December 1st rule again this year and open the TCR betting pool for the ATL by October 15. Ryan1000 20:41, September 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * I was hoping post-analysis would reveal our first May C5, but oh well. There's always next season! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:51, September 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hernan is done, nothing new. Ryan1000 20:23, October 25, 2014 (UTC)