User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center/EPAC/95E/1

INVEST ADVISORY INVEST 95E INVEST ADVISORY NUMBER  1 CYCLONE WARNING CENTER EP952012 2200 UTC MONDAY JUNE 18 2012 ...INVEST 95E A THREAT OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 2200 UTC INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.2N 108.6W ±70 NM ABOUT 305 MI...485 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 107 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. THE WATCH IS ISSUED 96 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.
 * CABO CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO

DISCUSSION AND FORECAST
INVEST 95E IS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SATELITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT IT HAS SLOWLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY STRONG FOR THE PAST DAY. THE RELATIVE VICINITY TO THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF THE INVEST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SET TO 25 KT DUE TO AN SSD DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.0... AND THE APPEARANCE OF WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DIFFICULT. THE ECMWF MODEL IS FORECASTING A DEEP LOW MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARDS WESTERN MEXICO. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE SAME INTENSITY DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST SIDES WITH THE ECMWF IN DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE RESOLUTION TO PICK UP A STORM AS SMALL AS THE STORM ECMWF IS FORECASTING. PLUS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM OVER THE AREA. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL ME MODERATE SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...ONLY THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STRORM INTENSITY...BUT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT DUE TO THE SMALL PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS. IN ANY CASE...THE FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT TO SOME OF THE MODELS. THERE IS A GENERAL TREND OF SLOW MOVEMENT EAST FOR 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER RATE OF MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST IS EAST OF THE ECMWF MODEL...BUT FOLLOWS THE GENERAL TREND OF THE TVCN CONSENSUS AND HWRF. THE CURRENT FORECAST STEERS IT ABOUT 100 MILES OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO...BUT A SLIGHT DEVIATION EAST WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE CAST...NECESSITATING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT   18/2300Z  17.2N  108.6W       25 KT  30 MPH 12H   19/1200Z  17.2N  107.4W       25 KT  30 MPH 24H   20/0000Z  17.3N  106.5W       25 KT  30 MPH 36H   20/1200Z  17.3N  106.0W       30 KT  35 MPH 48H   21/0000Z  17.4N  105.7W       30 KT  35 MPH 72H   22/0000Z  17.9N  105.6W       30 KT  35 MPH 96H   23/0000Z  18.9N  105.8W       25 KT  30 MPH 120H 24/0000Z  21.6N 108.4W        20 KT  25 MPH...POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW NEXT ADVISORY IN APPROXIMATELY 12-18 HOURS

FORECASTER Darren 23 CWC