Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page   Wall   Edits  01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

July
Is officially here by UTC, but nothing is out in the Atlantic right now. We still have 10 days to beat Emily '05 for the earliest 5th storm, but that's not looking too likely with the way the Atlantic looks right now. Ryan1000 02:17, July 1, 2016 (UTC)

Now it's only 3-4 days away. I don't think this season will beat Emily '05 Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:18, July 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * It won't. The Atlantic is an unfavorable hellhole for tropical systems currently. Any TC probably won't come until later this month, and it's possible we might be like 2012 and not get anything at all this month.  St  eve  82  0   19:05, July 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Something may pop up at the end of July... let's wait and see what happens. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:08, July 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: African Tropical Wave
The GFS model has been very consistent in developing a small, weak tropical cyclone south of Cape Verde in about 6-7 days. The strongest tropical wave of the season is likely to exit the coast of Africa next Tuesday, and this one could develop in the eastern Atlantic MDR before it encounters less favorable conditions in the western MDR (dry air). No NHC mention yet, but it could be mentioned tomorrow or Saturday. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 00:09, July 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully, this becomes Earl. I've been getting tired of the inactivity of the basin this month. Since it will encounter less favorable conditions in the western MDR, this might only be a tropical storm.  St  eve  82  0   19:36, July 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still no NHC mention. Not much development on the most recent GFS run, but it does appear to be a weak tropical depression or storm. ECMWF not developing anything. I would LOVE to see Earl form from this, but the Atlantic has been so dead this month, I'm not sure if I expect it to happen. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 20:23, July 22, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. Steve820 Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions

 * Alex - 1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022!
 * Bonnie - 2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022.
 * Colin - 5%  - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022.
 * Danielle - <font color="#669">1% Made landfall in Mexico but did not appear to cause any damage or deaths. She will return in 2022.

Steve's retirement predictions:
(Other users can feel free to follow my scale and use my colors)

The deaths and damage don't have to combine to form a percentage. For example, Sandy only had a death toll qualifying for 65%, but its damage toll qualified for 100%. The percentage given for the storm is only for the higher side (100% in Sandy's case).

If a storm becomes one of the most destructive of all time for a certain area (like Erika 2015), the chance will be bumped up by 40%. For example, Erika's damage and deaths only qualified for 40%, but because it was one of the most destructive storms ever for Dominica, the chance would be bumped up to 80%.

0% = Didn't touch inhibited land; no deaths or damage.

0.01% = Usually touches inhibited land, but causes none to a very insignificant amount of damage. 0 deaths (direct) and 0 indirect deaths (only for land touchers), at maximum 3 indirect deaths (only from offshore hurricanes, usually surfers drowning or similar stuff).

1% = Almost always touches inhibited land, causing minimal damage and no direct deaths. It can cause up to 5 indirect deaths.

5% = Causes from minimal to $20 million in damage, or causes up to 2 direct deaths and up to 7 indirect deaths.

10% = Very minor damage ($20 to $50 million), up to 5 direct deaths or 10 indirect deaths.

15% = Minor damage ($50 to $75 million), up to 10 direct deaths or 15 indirect deaths.

20% = Somewhat minor damage ($75 to $100 million), up to 20 direct deaths or 23 indirect deaths.

25% = Slight damage ($100 to $200 million), up to 25 direct deaths or 30 indirect deaths.

30% = Moderate damage ($200 to $350 million), up to 35 direct or indirect deaths.

35% = Larger damage amount ($350 to $500 million), up to 50 deaths.

40% = Somewhat significant damage ($500 to $750 million), up to 60 deaths.

45% = Large damage toll ($750 to $875 million), up to 75 deaths.

50% = Significant damage ($875 million to $1.5 billion), up to 90 deaths.

55% = Widespread damage ($1.5 to $3 billion), up to 100 deaths.

60% = Massive damage ($3 to $5 billion), up to 200 deaths.

65% = Severe damage ($5 to $7.5 billion), up to 300 deaths.

70% = Extreme damage ($7.5 to $10 billion), up to 400 deaths.

75% = Insane damage ($10 to $15 billion), up to 500 deaths.

80% = Super insane damage ($15 to $20 billion), up to 750 deaths.

85% = Catastrophic devastation ($20 to $25 billion), up to 875 deaths.

90% = Untold devastation ($25 to $35 billion), up to 1000 deaths.

95% = Cataclysmic devastation ($35 to $45 billion), up to 1500 deaths.

99% = Insane cataclysm ($45 to $55 billion), up to 2000 deaths.

100% = Damage toll exceeds $55 billion (like Sandy or Katrina) or death toll is 2000+.

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

<font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - Despite its extreme earliness, it didn't do much save for some Azores impacts.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#449">5%  - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.
 * Colin:  10%  - 4 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement.
 * Danielle: <font color="#449">5%  - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death.

Raindrop's Retirements

 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:31, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022.
 * Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: <font color="#669">2% - 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though.
 * Danielle: <font color="#669">1% - Danielle would have done nothing if not for the one person who got themselves killed.

Puffle's retirement predictions
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)


 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 and Puffle for the retirement colors)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#449">5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. T  G  20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Colin: 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022.  T G  12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle: <font color="#449">5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm.   T G  17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC)

Leeboy's retirements.
Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1.1%-   Early  and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% isn't due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased.
 * Bonnie-<font color="#449">5%: My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement.
 * Colin- 10%:  Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly.

Leeboy100 Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle-  <font color="#449">5%:  Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5.
 * 1) Alex: grade B, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022. KN2731 (talk) 13:07, June 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * 2) Bonnie: grade C, retirement 10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low. KN2731 (talk) 13:07, June 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * 3) Colin: grade C, retirement 15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:44, June 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 4) Danielle: grade E, retirement 5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:43, June 23, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC)