Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

August
Has begun, but EPac is currently quiet. Ryan1000 17:56, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Well, it technically didn't come out of no where, but it did for NHC. 30%.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:08, August 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50%. Cyclone10  E-Mail  06:04, August 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * It could become Gilma unless it becomes a bust as the others.Allanjeffs 06:59, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gilma
It's here. Forecast to become a bit stronger, but not become a hurricane. Ryan1000 15:11, August 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * It looks like it's already trying to develop a eye. Supportstorm (talk) 19:52, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Another storm that defies NHC. It doesn't want to weaken from dry air and it doesn't want to remain a tropical storm. Forecast to become a hurricane now... Ryan1000 17:58, August 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is the third straight advisory Gilma's been at 70 mph. Starting to have my doubts... --HurricaneMaker99 22:06, August 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * I may stand corrected. ATCF has Gilma at 75 mph/987 mbar, so we'll see if that sticks as the advisory intensity. --HurricaneMaker99 00:58, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Probrably will be a C1 storm. Also, if that happens, it would be the 6th consecutive hurricane of this season. While it's not the record (8, counting CPac, in 1992), it's still impressive. Ryan1000 02:16, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Gilma
When I saw this, NHC's site said " Hurricane GILMA : ...GILMA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH..." 75 mph, 987 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 02:51, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Lol. Not going to get much stronger, and should be weakening from here on out. Ryan1000 18:58, August 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I'm thinking it peaked at 80 mph/984 mbar earlier today. --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gilma (2nd time)
Back to TS.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:40, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 50 knts. YE Tropical  Cyclone  04:41, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
0%.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:02, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Highly unlikely to become named. 92E could, but definitely not this. Ryan1000 17:05, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Starting to cross the Date Line now &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:00, August 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now 92W. Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:28, August 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * And it's back, 0%. Cyclone10  E-Mail  02:51, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Has everyone abandoned this forum? This has been around for a while and will probrably become Hector. 30% atm. Ryan1000 02:12, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * I saw it but forgot that there hadn't been a post about it on the forum. --HurricaneMaker99 02:48, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * I had seen it but it has recently been dropped from 50% to 30%.Allanjeffs 03:04, August 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * And 30% down to nothing. Ernesto is going to eat 93E. Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:17, August 10, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi:Ernesto
30% atm.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:12, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * 60%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:35, August 10, 2012 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invested. -- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:06, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * the fattest invest I had ever seen in the epac.Allanjeffs 00:53, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Invest obesity anyone? YE Tropical Cyclone  04:40, August 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * 90%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  13:10, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hey lookie here! Seems ol' Ernie is making a comeback! Of course, it won't be renamed Ernesto because he died over land, but this is our first crossover from either side since Alma led to Arthur in 2008. Ryan1000 13:29, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * reunumberinvest_RENUMBER_ep942012_ep082012.ren and now in the NHC page.Allanjeffs 17:09, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Cyclone10 E-Mail  22:03, July 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Not even close.
 * Bud - 5% - It brought beneficial rain.
 * Carlotta - 7% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Daniel - 0% - Missed all landmass.
 * Emilia - 0% - Doubt it.
 * Fabio - 0% - No damage as a TC.

Mine:


 * Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but had no impact on land.
 * Bud - 2% - Fun storm to follow, but not enough damage.
 * Carlotta - 5% - Killed two girls.
 * Daniel - 0% - Impressive major hurricane, but no.
 * Emilia - 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio - 0% - Became a hurricane, but didn't do anything tropical.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Mine
 * Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.
 * Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.
 * Carlotta-15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying.
 * Daniel- 0%love you but no
 * Emilia 0% meh nothing just a cat 4 in here
 * Fabio 0 % just rain to LA and nothing more.


 * Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement.
 * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you.
 * Carlotta - 10% - It caused some impacts in Mexico, but it definitely wasn't severe enough for retirement.
 * Daniel - 0% - Didn't affect any land.
 * Emilia - 0% - Starting to doubt it already.
 * Fabio - Nothing to really say here.

CobraStrike:


 * Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm.
 * Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement.

 CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

True Golden Blaze: True Golden Blaze 01:35, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta- Meh, no.
 * Bud - 1.5% Gave Mexico a little shock, but didn't do much.
 * Carlotta - 11.5% Carlotta's landfall did pull off some deaths, but not enough to get it's name crossed out.
 * Daniel - Will do nothing and die out in the cold Central Pacific waters.
 * Emilia - Some waves but no threat to land. At current intensifying rate, could get a Cat 3 or 4.

Well, it's time for mine I guess. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:19, August 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0%
 * Bud - 0%
 * Carlotta - 0%
 * Daniel - 0%
 * Emilia - 0%
 * Fabio - 0%
 * Gilma - 0%

Mid-season predictions
Entering the year, after over predicting the last two years, I set my exceptions moderate, with 13-8-4. After an active early July and the GFS showing a major surge in activity a few weeks ago that turned into three fails, I raised it to 18-9-4 (though I have a bias towards the EPAC) and I started getting really excited. I've lowered mine to 14-10-5. Despite there being an El Nino, it has that quiet feel, it has the feel of a dead center and a big quiet phase. With all of the recent 80 and 90% busts, I am starting to get frustrated with the EPAC. Thank goodness for HURDAT going back pre-1995, or I would have not survived the two seasons. At least 2009, 2008, and 2006-00 were decent.

Ill apologize for my rant above, I just needed to get it off my chest. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:25, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I'll go with 14-9-6. Honestly, we should've reached Illena (if those three busts were upgraded). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:53, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I say 14 to 16 name storms this basin has really come down from producing 18 to 21 name storms to 12to 14 really sad.*signs*Allanjeffs 14:15, July 30, 2012 (UTC)