Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season/August

Another AOI in the same place as Invest 91E
On the 5-day outlook another area of low pressure is expected to form around the same place as 91E is now, and is rated at 0/20. Apparently the EPac's not getting its fill of steroids, and I've run out of ideas for the headers to describe just how many AOIs have formed in the past month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:29, July 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, another AOI, which is now at 0/30. If the EPAC keeps this up, this season will end up well above average despite the latest EPAC first named storm on record. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:19, July 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * We could see Ivette here, assuming the other invest is Howard. The EPac continues to surprise us with extreme activity since early July.  St  eve  82  0   01:20, July 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/60. We should see Ivette from this, eventually.  St  eve  82  0   00:42, August 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * 10/70, and Ivette should arrive by the end of the week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:21, August 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now 30/80. It's almost certain we will be seeing Ivette by Friday. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:47, August 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * It is currently 40/90. The EPac has shown us this year that it is consuming a lot of caffeine and Gatorade.  St  eve  82  0   00:10, August 2, 2016 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested, and chances have gone up to 50/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:19, August 2, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten-E
Upgraded by NHC. Will this be Ivette later on? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:15, August 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * Intensity wise, future Ivette is likely to intensify over the next few days, but gradually, due to moderate wind shear. The SHIPS guidance suggest some relaxation of the shear after 48 hours, leaving the door open to intensify into a hurricane around that time, possibly a strong one. Guidence is in good agreement over the next 6-7 days on a WNW track south of the subtropical high, and on this course, 10E will be moving over cooling waters by day 5, and thus weakening slowly. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:43, August 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * Well, this formed sooner than expected. Hopefully future Ivette can become a good looking hurricane before conditions worsen in 5 days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 21:53, August 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * This will be the first use of the name "Ivette" after we needed a replacement for "Isis" for obvious reasons. I hope for a powerful major so the first use can be an amazing storm.  St  eve  82  0   23:53, August 2, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ivette
Now named for the first time, forecast to become a hurricane after Howard eventually dies away. Ryan1000 12:25, August 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * While everyone is focused on Earl, here we got another EPac storm. It might be something big in the long run, but I think it will peak as a C2, with a slight shot at major hurricane status. Let's make the first use of the name an amazing one!  St  eve  82  0   04:45, August 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Northeasterly shear and dry air is severely hampering development at the moment. Right now Ivette looks like a large shapeless blob of convection partially obscuring the circulation center. Hopefully conditions improve by the end of the week, so Ivette can become a hurricane. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:31, August 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it looks like hurricane strength is unlikely with Ivette. Unfavorable conditions really limited its potential. I really wanted a hurricane (or even an epic major) from this newly used name, not a TS.  St  eve  82  0   03:36, August 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Ivette has already begun to weaken surprisingly early. It's down to 50 mph and is expected to weaken from here on out. In fact, with how poorly Ivette has responded to the conditions it's been in, I expect Ivette to dissipate sooner then 3 days from now as the NHC says. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:57, August 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * All of its convection has been sheared to the northeast it seems, with its circulation currently exposed. Ivette should continue weakening and should die in the next couple days as it crosses into the CPac.  St  eve  82  0   03:56, August 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * After a brief convective burst that quickly got sheared away, Ivette is looking weaker then ever. Ivette is down to just 40 mph, and it could dissipate shortly if no more convective bursts occur. Too bad Ivette wasn't able to become (or even get close to becoming) a hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 23:07, August 7, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ivette
Dissipating... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:32, August 8, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette
And gone...a little late though. Ryan1000 16:12, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Near Earl
I'm surprised no one posted about this AOI yet. It seems to be somewhat associated with Earl but could be a separate disturbance. The NHC has it at 50/80 and it could be Javier.  St  eve  82  0   03:36, August 6, 2016 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested. 60/80 now, and should form before Monday. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:32, August 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * This invest is looking quite good now, with very widespread thunderstorms and is up to 80/90 with the NHC saying a broad area of low pressure has formed. It seems to be beginning to merge with the remnants of Earl as well. This looks to be the first storm in the EPAC proper that will pose a threat to land. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:53, August 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * JTWC says this is Rmnt Earl 182.58.71.130 03:17, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * ...Which is not exactly true. The JTWC should realize that it is a separate disturbance merging with the remnants of Earl and not all of the disturbance is remnants. It should be classified as Tropical Depression Eleven-E tonight or tomorrow morning, and may be Javier later tomorrow. This appears to be a large flooding threat, particularly in its current state (hopefully it goes out to sea in the future).  St  eve  82  0   03:53, August 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Latest TCFA -

WTPN21 PHNC 062030 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 101.2W TO 19.6N 106.4W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 062000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 101.5W, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM 05L (EARL) THAT DISSIPATED OVER PUEBLA, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE DEEP FLARING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES SUGGESTS A BROAD LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS PROVE FAVORABLE WITH UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST, LIGHT 5 TO 10 KNOT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 072030Z.// NNNN --182.58.68.141 06:33, August 7, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
And we have ANOTHER tropical cyclone in the EPAC. Future Javier is expected to become only a moderate TS, but that's good as it is supposed to make landfall in Baja California. They hopefully should be prepared for a storm like this after Odile though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:18, August 7, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Javier
18z best track has it as a 40kt TS. -- Hurri  cane Odile   19:14, August 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Javier wasn't looking great at the 3:00 PM MDT advisory, which kept it at 40 kts/1000mb, but since then it's drastically improved. Convection has increased markedly and appears to be wrapping around the beginning of an eye feature. If this is a consistant trend, I expect Javier to be upgraded to 50 kts by the intermediate advisory. It seems possible that Javier could RI even with the fast increase in organization. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 23:04, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's also been tracking farther north than where it was previously expected like Odile in 2014. Hopefully it doesn't get as strong as Odile when it hits Baja, but it is forecast to hit at least cat 1 as of now. Ryan1000 03:44, August 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * The forecast track for this storm is eerily similar to Odile's. I just hope it won't be a repeat of that storm. Javier is still at 45 kts, hurricane warning now in effect from Los Barriles to Todos los Santos in Baja. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:49, August 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Javier is so close to Cabo San Lucas, its no more than 100 miles away. It's winds are 65 mph sustained, and it's pressure is down to 998 millibars. Hurricane watch in effect for some parts of the coast of Baja California. With it's forward speed of less than ten mph, it isn't going anywhere anytime soon. Stay safe, Baja California...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 23:27, August 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * PS: Forgot to mention that Huricane strength is now out of the question, and it will make landfall close to Cabo San Lucas within the next few hours. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 23:31, August 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Javier is dying fast. No deep convection remains near the center, and winds have gone down to 40 kt. At least Javier won't wreck Baja like Earl did to Belize. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:04, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Javier
Well, looks like Javier is about to dissipate. Third TS in a row that never became a hurricane. But first TS to actually cause any kind of an impact to land since Darby.Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:36, August 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * It seems to be devoid of most of its convection by now and it'll die out soon enough as it passes over Baja. Hopefully impacts weren't too bad. Ryan1000 16:11, August 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * I hope impacts weren't too bad as well. Looks like Javier didn't become a hurricane, but it did get quite close to reaching that status.  St  eve  82  0   19:35, August 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Javier's sudden dissipation is good for Baja California for sure, it was supposed to be a TS much longer. I wouldn't be surprised if Javier degenerated to remnants with the rate it weakened at. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:38, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Javier
Ok, maybe it's not remnants, but Javier is now officially dead, not having made landfall as a tropical cyclone. It's winds are down to 30 mph now, and it seems the only impacts would be minor flooding at this point. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:48, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: East-Southeast of Hawaiian Islands
Another new one is at 0/30. This could be Kay or Ulika if it develops slowly.  St  eve  82  0   19:35, August 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's down to 0/20. This might take a while to become anything, if it even develops at all.  St  eve  82  0   01:52, August 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * At 10/20 now but it should only develop in the CPac and potentially become Ulika. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:16, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * 20/30, but dry air should kill it for a while. If it survives that Ulika is possible. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:18, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now on the CPHC outlook, but it remains at 20% for 2 days. I wish the CPHC had 5-day odds as well. This could be Ulika, but is far from ceartain. If conditions are favorable enough farther west though, maybe we could end up with typhoon Ulika though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:59, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 30%. Quoted from the CPHC outlook: "Some gradual development over the next few days is expected as the systems tracks west through warm waters and relatively light shear." IMO, Ulika is likely to come from this. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:45, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 20% again due to weakening. It doesn't look like this will become Ulika during the next two days, but it still appears to have a shot in the longer term. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 18:52, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 10% and it appears that Ulika is becoming increasingly unlikely. However, I still wouldn't be too surprised to see it be at least a TD in the long run such as by the end of the week. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:29, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * It remains at 10%. It's going to have to try harder to become Ulika in these marginally favorable conditions. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:45, August 18, 2016 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
It's been invested, but chances remain at 10%. If it develops at all it'll probably be a name-stealer, like most CPac storms. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:08, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's been off the CPHC outlook for sometime now, looks like Ulika will have to wait, if it even occurs this year. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 17:50, August 20, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: 1000 Miles Southwest of Baja
This shouldn't develop. It is at 10/10 and conditions are not expected to allow significant development. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:16, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still at 10/10, but it would have to suddenly organise right now to become anything. This likely will go down to 0/0 by the next outlook and then vanish. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:01, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah. Kay will have to wait. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:46, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: >500 Miles South of Manzanillo
I did a double take when I saw this. Poof, suddenly there is a new 10/50 AOI that wasn't there at all in the last outlook in relation to a broad low pressure area. This could end up becoming Kay, but it's northwest movement won't give it much time to strengthen before it hits cooler water. This does not appear to pose a threat to land although it's relatively close. A nice surprise! ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 18:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * The appearance of this surprised me. It could be Kay by my birthday. Hopefully this is at least a hurricane. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:31, August 17, 2016 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Looks like this system has been invested as 97E as there are model runs for invest 97E on Tropical Tidbits. This surprise system has to get it's act together soon to become named. Chances of development are at 30/50. ~* Raindrop57 (talk) (Rain rules!) 16:26, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's relatively slow movement seems to buy this system some time to develop, although conditions are remaining only marginally favorable. Also, the NHC has increased the 5-day odds to 60%. We have a better than even shot at another EPAC storm! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:04, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * 97E seems to be starting to become more organized, as the little bit of convection there is is persisting and there appears to be a closed circulation. Chances of development have been raised to 70/70. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:44, August 18, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
Now it's a TD, expected to become a weak Kay off of Baja, but miss affecting the Peninsula altogether, unlike Javier. This'll probably be a fail. Ryan1000 21:30, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unless this somehow rapidly strengthens, it's bound to be an epic Failicia. The name "Kay" might be wasted. :( <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   22:10, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yep, looks like we might have a TS Kay that beats Agatha for the weakest storm of the season. Right now 12E's convection remains away from the center, and to be more then a fail it's going to have to develop convection there soon. I still don't expect a storm stronger then 50 mph no matter what though. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:09, August 19, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kay
Now named. Probably going to fail though... Ryan1000 11:39, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 50 mph. Maybe it isn't the biggest fail. I hope it can strengthen a little more. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:10, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Kay remains 50 mph with the latest advisory, but the NHC notes "this may be a little conservative". Kay may be able to reach a peak intensity of 60 mph still, but that's the strongest Kay will likely get. Still not a complete fail storm though. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:58, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yep. It is not really an epic fail at all. Kay, I applaud you for trying. Reach 60 mph, and you would exceed my initial expectations a lot. I originally predicted a 40 mph name-hijacker, but I am glad it reached 50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  19:31, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Kay looks a bit ragged now though. It should've had 50-knot winds earlier. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:14, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Whoa, Kay wasn't ready to die yet. Kay had fallen down to 40 mph earlier, but has restrengthened back to 50 mph, which actually appears conservative considering there are satellite estimates of T3.5. Kay is still expected to dissipate soon, but in the next 6 hours there may still be the possibility of Kay finally reaching a 60 mph peak intensity. I love tropical storms that actually try. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:51, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Kay is really fighting just like Fiona. I'm surprised it restrengthened. I hope it reaches 60 mph. :D ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:35, August 21, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kay
Weakened to a depression yesterday, but now Kay is dead. Ryan1000 13:38, August 24, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: 1000 Miles SSW of Baja California
A new AOI has popped up on the 5-day TWO. This one is expected to track across the open pacific moving WNW like most EPAC storms do, and has the potential to become a hurricane. It might not be the most interesting storm ever, bet we've got a good shot at getting our next EPAC named storm. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:17, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * At 0/20 right now. Here comes possible Lester.... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:36, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * This AOI has actually gone up to 30/70 already. This will be either Lester or Madeline if the other AOI develops first. Wow, the EPAC is trying to keep up with the past two years!

98E.INVEST
Was invested a while back, but is now at 40/80. Ryan1000 13:42, August 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * I am a little shocked that the other AOI won the TD race, and that one should become a tropical storm. Maybe this will be Madeline instead. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:40, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70/90. Madeline should come this weekend I suppose. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:59, August 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this system is taking it's time, but it looks like it will become Madeline eventually. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 01:48, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * This could head farther north than Lester, the 12z Euro forecast today takes this into Hawaii as a hurricane from the east, though the GFS makes this a much slower storm that could eventually hit them from the south. However, the GFS also brings Lester very close to Hawaii while the Euro doesn't even bring him close. Ryan1000 02:36, August 26, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E
And now it's numbered. Forecast to become Hurricane Madeline and possibly hit Hawaii's Big Island as a tropical storm. That'd be the 2nd TS landfall in one season. Ryan1000 22:05, August 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, has there even been 2 big island landfalls before in a single year? 14E is not wasting any time now that it's been classified. It actually has appeared to show a weak eye feature along with banding increasing quite a bit. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 45-50 mph TS Madeline by the next advisory. Also, we are well ahead of last year in terms of EPAC proper storms. Assuming this is Madeline next advisory, we'll be at the M named storm already. Marty didn't form until almost October last year. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:53, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, last year's EPac proper season wasn't actually that far above normal; it was the record-active CPac last year that put 2015 as second to 1992 for the most active Pacific hurricane season ever. Counting the CPac, we were at our 15th named storm at this time last year (Jimena) with 5 storms in the CPac. Still, if this becomes named, we'd be at 13 named storms in the EPac proper thus far this year, which, though not as active as the total number in the EPac and CPac combined last year, is still pretty good. 1985 holds most of the records for earliest formation dates of EPac proper storms, starting with Hilda and ending with Vivian. Ryan1000 02:03, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * The EPac has shown us incredible activity this year. I cannot believe we're already near our 'M' storm - this is FAR above last year's pace in the EPac! But the reason why it was so active last year was because of the unbelievable CPac activity. This should be Madeline by the next advisory or two. Luckily, it is forecast to weaken before reaching Hawaii. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:43, August 27, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Madeline
For the first time since 1998, say hello to Madeline! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 08:43, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is looking more and more likely to threaten Hawaii in the long run, we've never seen a season with 2 tropical storm landfalls in the archapelago. Madeline may change that. Up to 50 mph/1000 mbars. Ryan1000 11:08, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Madeline could still track north of Hawaii in the long term, as models have shifted that way a bit. Any tropical storm threat to Hawaii is still unusual though. Still would like to see a hurricane out of this and I hope it does not hit Hawaii. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:41, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * 50 kt/998 mb now. Madeline is officially in the CPac by 0.1°, and CPHC will take over starting from 0900 UTC. Currently whether Madeline will make landfall in Hawaii depends on how strong it becomes: models with stronger Madeline take it further north, while models with weaker Madeline move it further south. However Madeline's looking quite ragged now on satellite imagery. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:21, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow, we already have Madeline!? It's only August 28 and we're at our 14th named storm (Both EPac and CPac). I could put in some data from the past 5 years where we hit our M storm:


 * 2011: No "M-named" storm.
 * 2012: Miriam; September 22.
 * 2013: Manuel; September 13.
 * 2014: Marie; August 23.
 * 2015: Marty; September 26.
 * 2016: Madeline; August 26.

According to the data I've collected, this is the second-earliest occurrence of an M storm this decade, only behind 2014 by 3 days. T G  18:05, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * This EPac activity is TOO insane!!! I never ever expected us to reach our "M" name this early, especially with the very late start. This season may be really active after all... Back to Madeline, it's forecast track has shifted a little south, and is now forecast to skirt the Big Island of Hawaii. Hoping impacts there won't be severe. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:33, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * At first the Cphc said that Madeline was weaker than what the NHC had the storm but now they have upped the intensity to 65mph and should become a hurricane in the next 75mph. It will be the third year on a run where Hawaii is threaten. I believe there have never been 3 years in a run where Hawaii was hit or close to. Darby hit it in July. Another would be amazing for such a small chain of islands. Allanjeffs 23:43, August 28, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Madeline
Not going to wait for the advisory: best track has it at 75 kt, 984 mb. Madeline recently developed a tiny eye, and seems to be going through what Georgette did last month. If this keeps up, the Big Island of Hawaii may see its first hurricane-force landfall on record. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:18, August 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's confirmed to be Hurricane Madeline now, but I wouldn't jump the gun on Madeline being a hurricane hitting Hawaii just yet, the ridge north of Madeline might strengthen and force it south of Hawaii before it hits the islands, as it's currently forecast, while Madeline herself could pull Lester north of them. Ryan1000 11:13, August 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Category 2 now. Madeline's running up the scale, and I hope Hawaii's "barrier" can either deflect it or weaken it a lot. Jake52 (talk) 14:53, August 29, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Madeline
Hurricane watches for the Big Island.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:28, August 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * I did not expect a MAJOR. o_o Still threatening the Big Island of Hawaii... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:58, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast still takes it turning south before it hits the island, but according to Dr. master's latest blog post, that actually wouldn't be due to the ridge north of the storm but because Lester could catch up with Madeline enough to see the two storms do a Fujiwhara Interaction, which could turn Madeline south of Hawaii and Lester to the north. That would be a best-case scenario for the islands to avoid two major hurricanes at once, but that forecast is still two days out and Lester is only moving 5 miles faster than Madeline, so if it doesn't catch up fast enough Madeline may head farther north than forecast and hit the Big Island. It will weaken before then, but it's still strong enough to at least be a category 1 by that point in time. Ryan1000 04:49, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Madeline has continued to intensify and is now a category 4, and will graze the Big Island as a hurricane in about 2 days. However right now it doesn't look as good as it did earlier on satellite imagery. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:03, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Madeline strengthened a bit from before and is now at 130 mph/950 mbars, while Lester has weakened to 125/957 with the newest advisory. Ryan1000 11:55, August 30, 2016 (UTC)

Aaand back to cat 3, 120 mph/958 mbars with the Latest advisory. Madeline is starting to look ragged, but it'll be able to hang onto hurricane strength, and even if it passes just 50 miles south of the Big Island like it's currently forecast, that would put them on the north side of the storm, which is more dangerous than the rest, and it would still bring strong tropical storm force winds and flooding rains to the island. Ryan1000 17:32, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 100 kts/967 mbar, but the Hurricane Watch for the Big Island has been replaced with a Hurricane Warning. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:14, August 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * The bad news is that Madeline's forecast track has been shifting towards Hawaii, but the good news is that Madeline's satellite presentation is looking significantly worse then earlier. Shear might be taking a bigger toll on Madeline then expected, which is good for Hawaii. I can't believe Madeline became a category 4! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:41, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * I really can't believe it became a Category 4. That really exceeded my predictions by a lot. Madeline is weakening now, but the Big Island of Hawaii remains in the threat area. It is really unusual to see two hurricanes threatening Hawaii back-to-back. According to the article right here, Hawaii has last seen a similar threat back in 2014 when Iselle and Julio were closing in on the island chain. But like we should know, Julio passed north of Hawaii and spared the state a direct hit (unlike Iselle, which ended up striking Big Island). Only 13 hurricanes have tracked within 200 nautical miles of the Hawaiian Islands from 1949 through 2015, and this is back-to-back! Indeed really unusual. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:58, August 31, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Madeline (2nd time)
Madeline has now dropped below major hurricane strength to 110 mph/972 mbars with the latest advisory. The hurricane watches for the Big Island have now become warnings. Ryan1000 01:21, August 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * A special advisory was released at 0700 UTC as Hurricane Hunters found Madeline had weakened to a strong C1, at 80 kt/980 mb. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:32, August 31, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Madeline (2nd time)
Back down to a TS according to the CPHC. It is now affecting the Big Island of Hawaii as the center passes just south of the island. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  01:16, September 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Even though all hurricane warnings are off, Madeline is certainly passing close enough to Hawaii to bring some heavy rain to parts of the Big Island and possibly strong winds, mainly to the southern part of the island. The main city on the Big Island (Hilo) should get off rather easy. Ryan1000 03:05, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Madeline is pretty much done with. Weakened to 45 mph and forecast to dissipate on Saturday. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:53, September 2, 2016 (UTC)

Remnants of Madeline
Sheared to death.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:06, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: 500 Miles SSE of Manzanillo
Another AOI appeared on the TWO recently. This seems likely to form before the other AOI and become Lester. Quite a surprise to see this AOI from nowhere, as it was only 0/20 a day ago. Now it's 50/80. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:31, August 23, 2016 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Up to 90% for 2 and 5 days. This will probably become Lester first. Ryan1000 13:42, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * This shall be Lester. Hopefully the impacts will be minimal. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:35, August 24, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
It's a TD. Forecast to become Lester and be a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:38, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's now moving away from Mexico, so I guess this will be a great fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:16, August 25, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lester
EP, 13, 2016082506, 01, CARQ, 0, 160N, 1112W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, X, 295, 10, LESTER, M, 182.58.100.46 07:41, August 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * It is already up to 60 mph o_o Forecast to turn into a hurricane Friday, and I personally predict a peak in the Category 2 range. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:58, August 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yay, another EPAC hurricane is coming. I'm hoping to see a fourth major out of this even! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 01:44, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * Pretty confident this will become a cat 2 or 3, though it will remain far away from land regardless. Ryan1000 02:30, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, scratch that...the Euro takes this fairly close to Hawaii in the long run, this may be something to watch. The GFS takes this and Madeline-to-be fairly close to Hawaii but not making landfall as anything more than TS's. Ryan1000 19:27, August 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * After taking a break, Lester is strengthening nicely and appears to be a hurricane now, we'll see what the next advisory says. What's going on with Hawaii though, where did their hurricane shield go? :/ ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:55, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * I know. :/ Hawaii seems to be more in danger lately. Anyway, Lester is up to 70 mph. It should be a hurricane tonight or tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:38, August 27, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Lester
Somewhat surprised no one updated this, but Lester is now our first EPAC hurricane since Georgette. Most recent advisory brought it up to 65 kts/987 mbar; 06Z ATCF put Lester at 75 kts/979 mbar so I'd expect an intensity around there for the advisory that will be out shortly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 08:42, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * That windspeed is confirmed now, though the pressure is 978. It's actually a bit more likely that Lester will head south of Hawaii in the long run, but that may not be the case with Madeline. Ryan1000 11:11, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now 80 kt per ATCF but dvorak has a 90 kt storm (ssd) and 100 kt per adt. 182.58.102.143 13:25, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Lester definitely looks like a category 2 hurricane now. The eye is now well defined even though the convection isn't super deep. Based on the above estimates, 85-90kts looks like a good bet for the next official advisory strength. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:34, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Category 2 strength now. Lester is doing great despite the dry air ahead of it, and it looks like a major hurricane. Lester currently is just spinning some fish, but it threatening Hawaii is still possible. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:59, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Lester has lost its eye, and winds are kept at 90 kt. Trackfile showed 95 kt at midnight (UTC) though when its satellite presentation was great. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:24, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * At 85 mph and 979 mbars right now, and expected to last for a while. It could even be a Hawaii threat in the distant long run, but let's hope that will not be the case - especially with Madeline forecast to threaten the Big Island of Hawaii as a TS. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:30, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Best track puts this at 95 knots once again as the eye becomes better defined within a ring of increasingly intense convection. This is really impressive for a storm fighting off lots of dry air ahead of it. I hope the next advisory puts this as a major, since it looks about the same as Gaston right now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:20, August 29, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Lester
And 100 kt as per NHC.182.58.38.195 09:57, August 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Lester is currently expected to pass north of Hawaii in the long run as a hurricane while Madeline is expected to take a turn farther south, with some good luck the islands might dodge a direct hit from both storms. Ryan1000 11:13, August 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * New advisory pins the intensity at 130 mph and 951 mbars, making Lester a category 4 storm, and it's showing signs of becoming an annular hurricane like Daniel '06. If Lester keeps moving fast it might interact with Madeline and both storms could change course. Ryan1000 20:36, August 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * WAAT?! I did not really expect 140 mph and 947 mbars. Still looking like an unfortunate threat to Hawaii, but luckily the forecast track shifted a bit more north. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:56, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Lester is weakening again and is back down to category 3, possibly due to a slight increase in easterly shear disrupting Lester's annular structure. However, the shear is supposed to decrease and allow Lester to weaken more slowly or maintain its intensity. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:56, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Lester will also be moving over upwelled waters from Madeline in a few days, which should further limit its intensity as it moves into the CPac. Lester is almost certainly going to miss Hawaii at this point; out of all the models, only the UKMET model takes it to a landfall, but even they don't make it more than a TS when it does so. We can't rule Madeline out though. Ryan1000 17:36, August 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, Lester has really put on a show! And Lester seems to be going for Category 4 strength again - in fact, the deep convection is colder then it was before when Lester was a category 4. Lester has made the best of the conditions it is in to become quite an impressive storm! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:38, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is one awesome storm, I couldn't believe it became a category 4 earlier, and now is still a major. This is putting on a real show. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if it restrengthened to be a C4 again. Hawaii still needs to watch out but luckily it's probably going to pass north of the islands according to the forecast track. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  01:03, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC approves of Lester's re-organization, and has upgraded him back to a cat 4, but now with winds of 140 mph/948 mbars. Quite an impressive storm indeed! Ryan1000 03:09, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is really an amazing storm. Lester has held onto major status for a while but has weakened to 130 mph/954 mbars. It will weaken further as it passes just north of the Hawaiian islands, possibly bringing impacts in the process. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  01:20, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Lester (2nd time)
Now it's down to 110 mph. It might bring some impacts to Hawaii this weekend, but like I mentioned before, its center luckily will pass north of the islands. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:56, September 2, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Lester (2nd time)
Back to Category 3 as of the 11pm advisory. This will miss the Hawaiian Islands. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:30, September 2, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Lester (3rd time)
Lester fought off the shear quite well for a while, but it appears to finally be taking it's toll. Lester has become less symmetrical and looks much weaker then the advisory intensity of 100 mph. Only the slightest hint of an eye remains and this is near the edge of the CDO. Lester does not appear to pose a major threat to Hawaii anymore, which is good. Interestingly the discussion says Lester is supposed to become extratropical as it recurves which is pretty rare in the EPAC/CPAC. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 17:34, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lester (2nd time)
Lester has finally weakened to a tropical storm, after spending 222 consecutive hours at hurricane intensity (advisory 10 to 42). However it looks really bad now, and may not last to extratropical transition. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:36, September 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Lester only has a minimal amount of convection. However, an ASCAT pass revealed it's still producing 60 mph winds. Satellite agencies actually are calling this extratropical now. It's hard to tell if Lester is tropical or not at this point. Maybe it's even subtropical. But Lester does seem pretty organized currently, better so then 12 hours ago. What a long lasting storm. ~ Raindrop  (Rain rules!) 18:42, September 5, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lester
And it finally succumbed to unfavorable conditions. It lasted a while, but fortunately Lester remained well away from land, even Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:20, September 8, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Behind Lester
Another AOI is on the tropical weather outlook and is at 0/30 for now. It'll probably become Newton down the road. EPac's going nicely in activity thus far. Ryan1000 02:03, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * The EPac is still being drunk on caffeine and Gatorade... Newton coming already?! If this rate continues, we could exceed 2015's EPac amount of named storms (NOT counting CPac) in October! :O ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:47, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Even weak La Nina conditions won't stop the EPAC now! This season is really overachieving, especially with the late start! BTW this is now on the 2-day outlook, but development odds remain 0/30. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:36, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * 10/20. This may become Newton, but it'll take a while. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:25, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * This AOI is gone. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:33, August 30, 2016 (UTC)