Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools. 10L.NONAME 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
TCFA.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:04, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12W
Now 12W.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:19, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Haikui
Hello Haikui. Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:07, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Eww JTWC. Hey Haikui of the Danelia family, welcome to the world :P atomic 77 32

Welcome back, Atomic. And hello Haikui. Likely will head for China, but then recurve towards Japan/South Korea at the last minute. Ryan1000 14:35, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Haikui's making landfall in 5 days :| Cyclone10  E-Mail  20:58, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Typhoon Haikui
Expected to recurve while inland.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:04, August 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * 200,000 people are evacuated in Shanghai. Cyclone10 E-Mail  18:54, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Flooding is a huge concern with this storm. It's been stalling over China for days, and the results probrably won't look good. Ryan1000 18:05, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Haikui
It's gone now. Tons of damage in Philippines.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:03, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Subtropical and heading eastward.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:05, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13W
Another fish.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:54, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 13W
JMA has issued the last advisory :O Cyclone10  E-Mail  03:57, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kirogi
Has been named by JMA and JTWC. No strengthening is forecast as it will move over colder water. 65.34.84.50 17:26, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kirogi
Weakening. Cyclone10 E-Mail  04:10, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Kirogi
Gone. Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:08, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
I think this is what's left of 91C. TCFA and heading northeastward.... Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:42, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Back to CPHC's responsibility. Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:52, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

14W.KAI-TAK
A new invest.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:07, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14W (Helen)
New depression, PAGASA have already named it Helen. They take it between the Philippines and Taiwan &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:43, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

Likely to head towards Taiwan and China as a tropical storm or typhoon over the next few days. Ryan1000 18:18, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kai-tak
Hi Kai-tak. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:12, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like Kai-Tak may pull a Saola. Simlover123 (talk) 03:03, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

I take this on a westward track, towards Hong Kong (where it might hit the site of Kai-Tak Airport). But it will likely recurve towards Taiwan. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:05, August 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * I have Kai-tak making landfall in China, and dissipate inland. Isaac829 E-Mail  13:07, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

JTWC's forecast track of of 13/1500z is too far west. A close approach is likely to Taiwan is likely, then a landfall on China &mdash;12R.KIEWII 17:24, August 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * Kai-tak is still moving westward. JTWC predicts a landfall near Hong Kong :| Isaac829  E-Mail  16:07, August 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * Kai-tak has made its first landfall. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:56, August 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * Kai-tak has also made its first ever return over the open ocean waters. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:54, August 15, 2012 (UTC)

Typhoon Kai-tak
Nice eye feature, and still a STS for JMA.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  00:35, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Kai-tak
Long gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  22:18, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
New invest. Isaac829 E-Mail  16:07, August 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
Looks great for an invest. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Tembin
Now a TS.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:17, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

May become a problem for Taiwan. Simlover123 (talk) 18:03, August 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Saola already was. Isaac829 E-Mail  18:11, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

System looking sexy at the moment. ATCF ups it to 60 kt, but I wouldn't be too surprised if it actually was a typhoon. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:12, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

Typhoon Tembin
Even by JTWC standards, Tembin is a typhoon (and named Igme). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:20, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Will probably be a cat 4 or 5 at landfall.Allanjeffs 03:49, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Currently at 110 kt, with a peak expected near 125 kt. Should be a biggiee. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:36, August 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep. RIing right now. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:53, August 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now at 115 kt and expected to peak as a marginal super typhoon like Guchol did. --HurricaneMaker99 23:21, August 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Forecast to go in a loop after make landfall and reemerging out to sea.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:17, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Tembin (2nd time)
Might become a typhoon again.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:38, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

Typhoon Tembin (2nd time)
Yep. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:29, August 25, 2012 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Not as good. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Lies. TCFA issued, probably a TD by 03/09z. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:53, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 16W
Should be a strong typhoon in a couple of days.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:51, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bolaven
Named now... so lets have a party &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:38, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Typhoon Bolaven
RI coming soon.... Isaac829 E-Mail  14:50, August 21, 2012 (UTC)

This storm really scares me. I have a bad feeling this storm could mirror Typhoon Saomai of 2006 and crush China as a monstrous super typhoon. They better keep their eyes out. This is not looking good. Ryan1000 00:21, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan, most signs point to a China/North Korea landfall. Isaac829 E-Mail  03:29, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Still not looking good. Initially it looked like it would follow Saomai, but either way, 2 majors in WPac aren't anything to be taken lightly. This could cause lot's of damage to Okinawa or the surrounding islands. Even if it does make it all the way to North Korea, by then it would only be a tropical storm. Ryan1000 20:03, August 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Err...JTWC now has Bolaven making landfall in North Korea at typhoon strength.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:51, August 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * GFS sees it hitting China as a strong storm, possibly a C2/C3. Ryan1000 16:18, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

Now up to 130 kt, some more strengthening is possible. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:11, August 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Bolaven has 3 eyewalls.... Isaac829 E-Mail  22:06, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * ...and a very low pressure of 910 mb. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:21, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bolaven (2nd time)
JTWC last advisory as it makes landfall in North Korea. It should be a disaster.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:41, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
... Isaac829 E-Mail  22:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:46, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
TD according to JMA. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:18, August 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gone (or de-invested). Isaac829 E-Mail  03:08, August 25, 2012 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
A new invest.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:11, August 27, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Here's my predictions: Isaac829 E-Mail  18:56, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths.
 * Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass.
 * Mawar - <10% - Not so much damage created.
 * Ambo - 5% - Probably not.
 * Guchol - 35% - 27 deaths and evacs, but Talas didn't retired last year, so this shouldn't either.
 * Butchoy - 0% - Didn't/barely affect(ed) the Philippines.
 * Talim - 15% - Only some crops.
 * Carina - 0% - No.
 * Doksuri - 40% - Not that much.
 * Dindo - 30% - Not sure that's enough to make the name retire.
 * Khanun - 50% - Lots of damage in DPRK.
 * Enteng - 0% - No effects.
 * Vicente - 45% - Less damage than I thought.
 * Ferdie - 30% - Wasn't that bad.
 * Saola - 60% - Quite some damage.
 * Gener - 20% - Maybe.
 * Damrey - 45% - See Vicente.
 * Haikui - 80% - Lots of damage in the Philippines, yet so far away. And the damage in China.
 * Kirogi - 0% - No impacts at all.
 * Kai-tak - 30% - Not bad.
 * Helen - 20% - Haikui was worse.
 * Tembin - ?
 * Igme - ?
 * Bolaven - ?
 * Julian - 0% - Nah.


 * Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC)

Mine:

JMA: PAGASA:
 * 1) Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme.
 * 2) Sanvu - 0% - No.
 * 3) Mawar - 1% - I doubt it.
 * 4) Guchol - 5% - Yes, there were some effects, but not that bad.
 * 5) Talim - 10% - Another possible one, but not that likely.
 * 6) Doksuri - 25% - More damaging then Talim, so it has a possible chance.
 * 7) Khanun - 70% - South Korea might consider this damaging, and it is.
 * 8) Vincente - 40% - A scare for Hong Kong, but it could've been much worse.
 * 9) Soala - 30% - Hit me in China, but outshadowed by Damrey and Haikui.
 * 10) Damrey - 45% - Also hit me, but Haikui has a better chance of going.
 * 11) Haikui - 90% - Damaged my relative's houses, combined with its other damage, yes.
 * 12) Kirogi - 0% - See Sanvu's section.
 * 13) Kai-tak - 10% - Maybe not.
 * 14) Tembin - TBA - Still Active.
 * 15) Bolaven - TBA - Still Active
 * 1) Ambo - 2% - Some effects, but the Philippines has seen much worse.
 * 2) Butchoy - 0% - Had no effects.
 * 3) Carina - 0% - No Cosme here.
 * 4) Dindo - 4% - I still doubt Dindo will go.
 * 5) Enteng - 0% - Had no Philippine effects.
 * 6) Ferdie - 2% - Minor Philippine effects.
 * 7) Gener - 1% - Some moderate effects in the Philippines.
 * 8) Helen - 30% - Not that damaging.
 * 9) Igme - TBA - Still Active

-- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * Are you sure about giving 3% to Khanun? Isaac829 E-Mail  16:09, August 14, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine:

JMA: PAGASA: - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:06, August 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 1% - Very little chance.
 * Sanvu - 0% - No.
 * Mawar - 0% - No chance.
 * Guchol - 20% - Has small chances of retirement.
 * Talim - 0% - I doubt it.
 * Doksuri - 5% - I don't think so.
 * Khanun - 60% - Lots of damage and deaths in DPRK, maybe a candidate for retirement. I didn't expect that to happen though.
 * Vicente - 50% - Wow, shocked me a lot when intensified to a Category 4, but has less damage. Though damage is considerably light as of now, China or Hong Kong may request Vicente to be retired. So it's a 50/50 for me.
 * Saola - 35% - Moderate damage in Taiwan and the Philippines, so there is a very slim chance that Saola may be retired.
 * Damrey - 10% - I don't think so.
 * Haikui - 85% - Philippines: severely affected; China: also affected; so, there's a very big chance of retirement for Haikui.
 * Kirogi - 0% - No land areas affected.
 * Kai-tak - ? - Still active.
 * Ambo - 0% - No.
 * Butchoy - 0% - I really doubt it.
 * Carina - 0% - No damage in the Philippines. A fish.
 * Dindo - 0% - I don't think so, another fish.
 * Enteng - 0% - Barely affected the Philippines.
 * Ferdie - 0% - Not that much damage.
 * Gener - 30% - Maybe? But damages and deaths were not as high as compared to the previous storms that affected the islands.
 * Helen - 80% - P500 million damages so far, may exceed P1 billion, which is enought to retire 'Helen'.

Well, now that we have quite a few storms, here's mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Impressive season thus far, but not as bad as it could've been, especially with Vicente. The Philippines were much luckier than last year, that's for sure. Ryan1000 02:44, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 5% - Nothing too severe.
 * Sanvu - 0% - Not a chance.
 * Mawar - 0% - As with Sanvu.
 * Guchol - 10% - I won't say it did nothing, but if Talas wasn't retired last year for 73 deaths and 600 million in damage, Guchol doesn't stand a chance.
 * Talim - 0% - Nah.
 * Doksuri - 1% - Won't say it was a complete fish, but still no retirement here.
 * Khanun - 65% - Pretty bad, but not too sure...Korea's seen worse.
 * Vicente - 55% - It was destructive and it has a shot of retirement, but the thing that shocks me most about Vicente is how much worse it could've been. This was probrably the closest call China has seen in a long time.
 * Saola - 25% - Caused some flooding in Taiwan, but not extremely bad.
 * Damrey - 10% - This ended up being interesting for China, but at least it missed Shanghai and overall damage wasn't too severe.
 * Haikui - 85% - Another storm for China, and by golly, what a storm. I never knew it was this bad. This thing sat over China for several days, and although only 19 or so people died, 2 billion dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This thing has a serious chance of retirement, and also the only storm named Haikui, having replaced 2005's Longwang.
 * Kirogi - 0% - What's that now?
 * Kai-Tak - 35% - Something reasonable, but nothing severe.
 * Tembin - ?? - To be announced.
 * Bolaven - ?? - Nothing yet, but like Isaac in the Atlantic, I have an ominous feeling...
 * Ambo - 1% - Not very likely to happen.
 * Butchoy - 0% - Hardly any damage in the Philippines.
 * Carina -No damage to the islands.
 * Dindo - See Carina.
 * Enteng - Not a chance.
 * Ferdie - 5% - Not as bad as other storms.
 * Gener - 10% - As with Ferdie.
 * Helen - 30% - Something, but not devastating.
 * Igme - ?? - TBA.
 * Ryan, are you sure about 0% for Khanun? It worsened a nasty flooding situation in North Korea that has killed at least 169 people. --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, August 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ryan, are you really sure about what you gave to Khanun? - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry, I was looking at a completely different storm. Couldn't say no to that, but not 100%. Ryan1000 00:24, August 22, 2012 (UTC)