Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I think that we'll probably see a below average season for the first time since 2013. Probably a La Nina? I dunno, it's far out to tell. Any others? Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:04, November 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm thinking near-average for now. A potential La Nina could make the season less active, but it's too early to know for sure if a below-average season will occur. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:43, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I agree with you Steve. Its too early to make any prediction about the condition of the ENSO right now, and so to predict the season. A near average season looks likely, unless we get something like 2010. --182.58.43.102 13:15, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd say near to below average. To be fair, I'm only interested in Hurricane Lane.  SUPREME COLGATE CREW 14:48, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is going to be the EPac's 2013. The vertical wind shear will be extreme through most of the basin for the most of next season. This is going to be a re-2011 with not as many C4 storms, let alone if we see any C3s. T  G  My Birthday 21:07, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Made the betting pools, click here. - Garfield
 * Ayo, check out my predictions under the "Strangest Storm" section for Lane. GO ON LANE, you're the only EPAC 2018 storm I'm actually looking forward to. (Or shall I call you Elaine, your full name?)  SUPREME COLGATE CREW 20:06, December 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Rarah, Elaine is not the full name. Lane is a male name. T  G  My Birthday 12:34, December 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol, still gonna call Lane "Elaine the Pain", dis gun be gud. SUPREME COLGATE CREW 16:06, December 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel this year could be similar to 2017 how it gets through a lot of names, but the storms are weak and ACE is fairly low. We'll see. - Garfield


 * Damn, I happen like the EPac a lot for its abundance of fishspinning majors. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:41, January 4, 2018 (UTC)

Just got this from Storm2K:

"Who wants to answer the following question? Which names will be the big ones in the 2018 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season? (Cat 3 or higher)

I will go with Daniel,Gilma,John,Miriam and Olivia.

Ditto. Same here."

Yeah, because those are the overrated names. I predict Lane will be one of the strongest to be honest. #TeamLane2018  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:09, February 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * I would agree with Daniel, Gilma, and Olivia. Maybe add in Ileana or Kristy. I honestly just can't see the name Lane going to any strong, imo. T  G  2 0 1 8 21:57, February 5, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, because of the hurricane tracker community's strong bias towards Daniel, Gilma and Olivia in that list finna smh fam. Why don't you see Lane become any strong? You have something against her? No, I predict Daniel, Fabio, Ileana and Lane to all peak as majors. SERIOUSLY, THIS WILL BE THE YEAR OF THE UNDERDOGS, I predict Gilma will be a flop TS Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 00:44, February 6, 2018 (UTC)

I don't think Lane will be that weak at all. #TeamLane2018  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 00:46, February 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I know a guy named Lane who is a real moron, which is what I have against Lane. Every time I hear that name, it reminds me of that kid. T  G  2 0 1 8 01:55, February 7, 2018 (UTC)

hmmm why would you say that? was he a bully, or was he wasted all the time?? I can just think of an edgy alternative girl or a cute guy whenever that name is heard Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 02:52, February 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * He was a bully who threatened to stab me and several other kids. He also threatened to shoot up the school. T  G  2 0 1 8 21:24, February 7, 2018 (UTC)

You serious? oh my days... I bet he's in prison now, good thing you spoke the truth! I am so sorry to hear your experiences. Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 22:24, February 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow... the Lane that you met must have had major issues. He may have been severely abused as a child, which could lead to that kind of behavior. Hopefully he is now in a group home or mental hospital, or he could even be in prison now. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:57, February 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Was just gonna say what Steve said but I was too frightened to. To add he might be sectioned. (I do know of a Lane at my uni but she comes from a country where English is not the first language (it's her nickname; her first language is French), that's why I didn't view it as that bad).  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 02:36, February 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Anyway, even though the names are cute this year, I'm really missing the Legend Trio already (Jimena, Darby, Kenny). These three always so some crazy shit in the basin that they are the three most legendary names of all time (Jimena for always standing out from the rest of the majors, Darbasaur for always being a C3 and Kenny for always being a C4). I'll have to wait until I'm at least 22 to see them again :( Are there any names that always have strong tendencies on this year's list?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:45, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:
 * Anyway, even though the names are cute this year, I'm really missing the Legend Trio already (Jimena, Darby, Kenny). These three always so some crazy shit in the basin that they are the three most legendary names of all time (Jimena for always standing out from the rest of the majors, Darbasaur for always being a C3 and Kenny for always being a C4). I'll have to wait until I'm at least 22 to see them again :( Are there any names that always have strong tendencies on this year's list?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:45, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:


 * 19-12-5 for this year's numbers
 * Lane is the strongest this year, a high-end, fishy C4 in September, headed for Hawaii, or passes very near it.
 * Remember MaLester, KiGnaMena, JuliSelle, DanElia and IrVa in previous years? Yes, those were the power couples of selected years of the EPac during this current decade. 2018's power couple will be KrAne, two fishy C4s that should produce a good set of ACE.
 * Weakest storm is Carly (sorry for all Carly lovers!)
 * Nobody gets retired.
 * Lots of good-quality storms this year; I'm anticipating plenty of C2s.

What about you? ｕｒ　ｍａｉ　ｗａｉｆｕ　ｄｅｓｕ　ノ域囲真 23:10, March 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * One more month until the EPac season kicks in. -- Roy 25  00:42, April 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Everyone's worried about Lane, but I'm worring about John. It could be a California Disaster - 01:13, April 19th, 2018 - Bluecaner


 * The season has officially begun! --70.190.21.73 00:00, May 15, 2018 (UTC)

Pre-season (Jan to mid-May)
In case. -- Roy 25  00:42, April 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * This model shows a possibility of a storm developing 66 hours from now. Another pre-season storm, could break Adrian's record if it does form. Also this storm does look like it would form in the CPac basin. -- Roy 25  01:56, April 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hope it forms! -Bluecaner, 02:41, April 25, 2018 (UTC)

This Model] shows it developing 34 hours from now.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:47, April 26, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Out in the Ocean, SE of Mexico
STWO up by NHC, first disturbance this year here. Low chance of forming; medium chance within 5 days. -- Roy 25  17:51, May 7, 2018 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
First invest of the 2018 EPac season. Has an outside chance to become an early-season Aletta; the 2012 Aletta did that too. Ryan1000 21:26, May 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now medium chance of formimg with 50/50. Stated that a tropical depression may form later today or the next day before entering non-favorable conditions. An increasing chance we may have another pre-season storm. -- Roy 25  20:04, May 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70%...could Aletta be coming later today? Ryan1000 10:08, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Needs more thunderstorms over the center... come on 90E! ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:16, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Accordingly, has until late Thursday until non-favorable kicks in. Please don't be a re-PTC 10. -- Roy 25  12:26, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Had reached non-favorable conditions, chances decreased to 50%. However, it still has a possibility a depression could form from this later today before wind shear kicks in tomorrow. -- Roy 25  17:45, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Downgraded to 30/30. This was a fail lol. -- Roy 25  03:08, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like Adrian's record is going to stay. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:54, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 50/50. Still doubt formation. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:32, May 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
OMG NO WAY!!! UNEXPECTED!!!-- Roy 25  20:40, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Turns out myself (and Roy) were proven wrong and TD-One is now active as of the latest advisory . Nutfield001 (talk) 20:48, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look like it's going to do anything else from here though... Send Help Please (talk) 20:53, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * True, the forecast cone doesn't expect One-E to strengthen to Aletta. Though only a depression, it's a nice pre-season surprise and continues the streak of pre-season storms in the EPAC (east of 180°) after Pali in 2016. Nutfield001 (talk) 21:01, May 10, 2018 (UTC)

now slightly stronger.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:03, May 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is such an early bird. Did not expect anything to develop this soon! I guess it is a weaker variant of Adrian from last year; both formed similarly early. However, this should not become Aletta due to powerful shear. Aletta will have to wait. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, May 11, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E
Now post-tropical. Say goodbye to the early storm. -- Roy 25  02:34, May 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * There goes our first shot at Aletta. Maybe we'll have something by the end of the month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:21, May 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
June has begun, and the EPac has a new area of invest to watch for south of Mexico. It's not expected to develop in the next 2 days, but has a 20% chance of becoming Aletta in 5. Ryan1000 14:19, June 1, 2018 (UTC)

Now 30%.No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:34, June 1, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 0/50%.No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:38, June 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Increased further to 0/60. Aletta definitely coming from this one. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:12, June 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 10/70. Could be Aletta, or peak at sad TD 2E. -- Roy 25  23:15, June 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Both GFS and ECMWF show this becoming a hurricane within the next 7 days. Hopefully it misses Western Mexico. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:41, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:38, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 20/90. Models, like KN2731 said, brings this to not just a hurricane, but major as well. Models, including ECMWF, also show the formation of Bud soon, so we should keep an eye. -- Roy 25  14:34, June 3, 2018 (UTC)

I'd be surprised if this doesn't become Aletta by this point, but it's expected to remain offshore of Mexico. However, it could bring some surf to the coast of Mexico or southern California. If it becomes major hurricane Aletta, it would be the first storm named Aletta to become a major hurricane. Ryan1000 16:22, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/90. -- Roy 25  17:28, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's almost a certainty now because those odds look pretty good. Hurricane Kat  18:29, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * The GFS has been sticking with what looks like a re-Carlotta 2000 or a re-Bud 2012 (only if Bud was somewhat stronger). This has a great shot at becoming the first hurricane and the first major hurricane of the season. Euro even has developed a C2-C3 hurricane, so Aletta is likely to be fairly intense. T  G  2 0 1 8 18:36, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 40/90. I'm suprised this hasn't been invested yet. -- Roy 25  23:17, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * 60/90. GFS brings this to 927 mbar, but for some reason ECMWF is now slightly less enthusiastic than yesterday. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:53, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * The GFS also eventually takes this a little close to central/northern Baja in the 06Z run today, but it's expected to weaken quite a bit by then or die offshore; Blanca 3 years ago became the earliest TS to strike Baja, but only as a minimal storm. Both the GFS and the Euro also foresee another storm behind Aletta-to-be, with the Euro making it a strong fishspinner while the GFS recurves it towards Mexico around Manzanillo. EPac is starting to wake up. Ryan1000 14:01, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Now invested, and up to 60/90. This will most likely be Aletta, and could become a strong hurricane. - Vile


 * The GFS is still sticking with a strong hurricane, definitely something that could warrant some attention. I think this storm will be very similar to Hurricane Bud in 2012 in the way that it behaves. T  G  2 0 1 8 15:06, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I wonder why it took that long to be invested? Anyways, models still does show this storm near or at major hurricane status. -- Roy 25  15:22, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * GFS is now surprisingly showing only 96 kts for its latest run. T  G  2 0 1 8 17:17, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

I'm calling for the first major Hurricane Aletta ever. THE EPAC 2018 SEASON is at least gonna be better to watch compared to last year. Aletta is following in the footsteps of Anders and Amanda in recent years. Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 18:01, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

UPDATE: 12z GFS now bottoms at 934 mbs in this run. Amanda, in comparison, was 932mb. Anders was 937mb. Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 18:04, June 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * You mean Andres was 937mb unless it is a nickname. Anyway, this will become probably become strong in the long run. --70.190.21.73 04:14, June 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * "Anders" is probably just a nickname. She has a habit of being creative with storm names, etc. Anyway, here comes Aletta! It might even develop into a major hurricane in the long run. Current development chances are 70/90. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:51, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90 per latest TWO. Aletta should be coming out in the next next TWO or so. --70.190.21.73 16:42, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 100/100. Guarantee now. -- Roy 25  17:27, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta or TD-2E should be coming out any moment now. --70.190.21.73 18:06, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it’s still not developing. Maybe on the next advisory? --70.190.21.73 23:44, June 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
Now here finally. Forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. -- Roy 25  02:49, June 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Given future-Aletta isn't going anywhere near land I'm rooting for a strong C4 or even C5 if she can make it there. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:30, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I too think the 100 mph windspeed estimate is conservative, at least somewhat. I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a powerful major hurricane, but it'll be well out to sea no matter how strong it gets. Ryan1000 03:33, June 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Aletta
Welcome to the first named storm for this year's Pacific hurricane season! ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:48, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * NHC brings it up to 90 mph, right now at 45/1000. 90 mph could be conservative though. T  G  2 0 1 8 11:25, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * RI index is still high and probable with Aletta before she encounters cooler SST's 5 days from now or so. EPac storms have a tendency to intensify beyond the NHC forecasts for them, many storms over the past several years got stronger than forecast in the EPac. The Atlantic has gotten somewhat more accurate though. Ryan1000 12:35, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm getting Andres 2015 vibes from this. Not saying it'll be a C4, but the early cones for it also forecasted a 90 mph peak. The RI index is high, so a major is very possible. - Vile
 * This storm is reminding me of Blas from a couple of years ago. It is also giving me vibes from Andres, and this could very well be a C4. Like Ryan and Garfield have both said, the RI index is high, which means we could very well see our first Major Hurricane Aletta from this storm. T  G  2 0 1 8 13:08, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wind shear is low and waters are warm but typical for this time of year, dry air is causing problems, and ASCAT suggest the center isn't well defined, although it's an improvement from yesterday. This likely becomes a hurricane but this is going to have to consolidate a bit for serious intensification. There's like 60 hours left, but if this isn't a hurricane by tomorrow night, forget a major hurricane. In fact, most of the guidance has gone down slightly (not that that's unusual for the system like this), with the SHIPS bringing this to 75 knots and the LGEM keeping this a tropical storm. YE Pacific Hurricane  20:23, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta hasn't intensified much at all today, the latest advisory ups her to 50 mph/999 mbars, though I expected Aletta would be a little stronger at this point. Dry air is always a problem with EPac storms maintaining their intensity for long, but a number of EPac storms in the past have managed to intensify to higher than expected heights despite seemingly dry air in front of them. Ryan1000 03:54, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta is now a 65 mph, 994 mbar storm, with the National Hurricane Center forecasting an upgrade to hurricane status in at least six hours. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:56, June 7, 2018 (UTC)

Aletta has organized significantly over the past few hours and it'll probably be a hurricane sometime soon, and it still has a chance to blow up before encountering dry air in 2-3 days. I wouldn't rule out major hurricane strength. Ryan1000 13:29, June 7, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Aletta
Say hello to not just the first EPac named storm, but also the first EPac hurricane of the year. -- Roy 25  20:41, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * And we have our first Hurricane Aletta since 2000. Aletta already looks impressive for a low-end C1 on IR. T  G  2 0 1 8 00:09, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Just intensified to a Category 2 hurricane. Major hurricane is out of the question. -- Roy 25  02:43, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta is now a Category 2 hurricane after beginning rapid intensification. This one is really impressing me. Let's see if it can become a major. - Vile
 * Aletta has a very impressive satellite presentation at the moment. If she further improves it in the next 6 hours we'll have our first major hurricane this year. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:51, June 8, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Behind Invest 91E
This is a great candidate for Bud, GFS develops a 929 mbar storm in about 9 days for this one. Currently 0/20. T G  2 0 1 8 17:33, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

Wow, Buddy, you've gone from historical flop back in 1978 and since 2006 you've always been a major! I'm sure he'll impress Aletta this time around! GWAN BUD YOU PENG THING ;)  Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 18:01, June 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * And another strong hurricane is possible. This one and 91E are going to be major hurricanes if they will in the long run. --70.190.21.73 04:17, June 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Two back-to-back strong hurricanes? Looking very possible, but it's only early June though... EPac is really starting to ramp up now. I think "Bud" sounds like a good name for a C2-C3 hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up on the 5-day TWO at 40%. Ryan1000 12:11, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50. -- Roy 25  17:28, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 10/60. -- Roy 25  23:37, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Latest TWO brings it up to 20/70. This is a potential candidate for a very strong C4 at this rate. Something along the lines of Carlotta in 2000. T  G  2 0 1 8 12:00, June 6, 2018 (UTC)

Latest TWO says this is now 30/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:14, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Models still show this a hurricane or a major hurricane like Aletta. Only time will tell. -- Roy 25  23:02, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 30/90 on the latest advisory. -- Roy 25  23:41, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Unlike Aletta, ECMWF is actually bullish on this. This could be our first major. YE Pacific  Hurricane  00:27, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 40/90. -- Roy 25  20:42, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Upped to 50/90. -- Roy 25  23:45, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I am not liking the ECMWF's current run. It shows future Bud slamming into Baja California and Sinaloa. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:02, June 8, 2018 (UTC)