Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The CPC has just declared a weak La Niña. Models keep a La Niña through winter at least. Will we see another active season next year? Maybe its too early to make a call, but we'll surely see...182.58.75.119 04:32, November 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * GWO, which has predicted every season correct since 2009, has said that the season will be the most active and most dangerous since 2005, implying that this La Niña could last a while. T  G  My Birthday 12:01, November 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, I looked closely at their website and I saw "Only Organization That Predicted 2017 - Would Be Most Destructive and Dangerous Hurricane Season Since 2005." Pretty sure they mean 2017. I think 2018 predictions are going to be freely available on February 1, because it says on that website that "zone predictions" are coming that day. In the meantime, I'm going to go ahead and predict what this season could have in store. I believe 16-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-5 majors will occur. Another really active season is very possible and I hope it's not going to be a catastrophic season like 2017 was. ~  Steve 🦃   Happy  Thanksgiving!  👪  19:40, November 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm of the opinion that with the development of La Niña, another hyperactive season is on the way... my predictions are 18(±3) named storms, 11(±2) hurricanes, and 6(±2) major hurricanes. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:03, November 25, 2017 (UTC)

Also since the betting pools are already up I'll link them here. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:10, November 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Steve, originally there was a title you could click on called 2017-18 hurricane season predictions. Now it is renamed 2018-19 predictions because 2017 is 5 days away from ending. It originally read: "2017 AND 2018 WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AND DESTRUCTIVE SEASONS IN A DECADE", meaning that 2018 is going to be a re-2017 unfortunately. T  G  My Birthday 13:38, November 25, 2017 (UTC)

I think we are in for another active season. I hope it’s not destructive like this year. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that it will be. I think the 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons were just the Atlantic taking a nap. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:41, November 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Another hyperactive season is almost here, well, not really hyperactive but just active. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:56, November 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * There's a good possibility that 2018 will be another very active or even hyperactive season with extreme destruction. Hopefully it isn't, because 2017 had way too much devastation and many areas (particularly the Lesser Antilles and Texas) need a break. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:48, November 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this year does turn out to be very active, like it appears it will be as of now due to La Nina conditions, hopefully we don't see the kind of horrific devastation we saw from last year's season, particularly in major U.S. cities or territories. Like I mentioned in the summary of the last season, the only way we could see more damage in an AHS than last year is if a series of strong hurricanes struck other major U.S. cities; Miami, Tampa, and NYC are the only U.S. cities that could suffer more damage from a worst-case hurricane than what Harvey did to Houston, not to mention Irma's and Maria's historic impacts in the Caribbean and southwest Florida as well. Ryan1000 22:55, December 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Seasonal forecast by UCL's TSR (Not the Student Room) has been released: 15-7-3 is the forecast.  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 17:23, December 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Latest odds for La Niña are 26%, with 46% for neutral and 28% for El Niño. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:06, February 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * That means that we will going to have an average season this year. --70.190.21.73 02:38, February 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was a little iffy of another above-average season to be fair, but nonetheless I still predict some pretty powerful hurricanes coming. Who do you think will be the strongest storm this year? Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 03:02, February 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * I have a pretty bad feeling about the names Gordon, Helene, and Michael. I predict one of those will be the strongest of the year. For season totals, I now predict something like 16-8-4. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:55, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Given the current ENSO status and forecasts, we could see a slightly less active season to come, however as demonstrated by 2005 an above average season or even hyperactive season can't be ruled out, we'll have to see on the status on the AMO and the North Atlantic oscillation for the influence in activity later on as it gets closer to hurricane season. Not making my calls until mid-April. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:59, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * This season could end up being slightly less active than earlier forecast, the current projection is leaning neutral, with a slightly higher chance of La Nina than El Nino. 2011 had a similar outlook at this time of year as well, and it turned out to be tied for the 3rd most active year ever, but only Irene was notable that year. But it's too soon to tell whether this'll be an average or above average year. Ryan1000 07:07, February 14, 2018 (UTC)

-Removed predictions since they changed as of March '21st' 2018-


 * Indeed! I also am a bit worried about Gordon, Helene and Michael. I think those three will be top three in terms of strength. I agree wholly with what Steve said in terms of season totals.


 * What are your predictions?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:25, February 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow, my predictions aren't that detailed. :/ Mine are simply 18 TS, 11 HU, 6 MH. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:39, February 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * I say that there will be 16-19 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I'm gonna go further and say that Helene would be the most destructive hurricane of the season, while Michael would be the deadliest, especially with the death tolls of the previous two M-named hurricanes in this basin (official death toll from Maria may be somewhat undercounted) ArrDFe25 (talk) 20:04, February 20, 2018 (UTC)

GWO's preds released fam:  " What to Expect in 2018

  2018  GWO Prediction    16 named storms     8 hurricanes   4 major hurricanes    4 U.S.  Hurricane landfalls

                                                                                                                2 to 3 major impact United States Hurricanes"

ｕｒ ｍａｉ ｗａｉｆｕ ｄｅｓｕ ノ域囲真 04:56, February 27, 2018 (UTC) Scratch that. A guy named "Joe Bastardi" released his predictions. https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-prelim He is predicting: 11-15/6-7/1-3 due to the uncertainty of El Nino events. To be honest... due to the possibility of El Nino coming in autumn, I am now revising down my predictions to 14-6-3; I can see a similar set-up to 2006, but 2000's amount of storms. El Nino should be in full force next winter, and might dissipate come next year's season. I still believe Helene will be the strongest of this season, or maybe Gordon. The season, I believe, will see its best activity mid-September and before, with an early finish. ｕｒ ｍａｉ ｗａｉｆｕ ｄｅｓｕ ノ域囲真 22:54, March 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * TSR and CSU predictions will be out in a week. Those should be interesting given the uncertainty whether La Niña shall prevail, or if El Niño will take over, and if so, when. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:29, March 31, 2018 (UTC)


 * CSU predicts 14-7-3. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:40, April 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pretty much the same as TSR's December predictions but with one less storm. -- Roy 25  16:35, April 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * TSR has predicted a below-average season, giving 12-6-2 as their forecast. Contrary to most of our predictions here. But there again that doesn't mean destructive storms won't occur... ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:21, April 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * NCSU released their forecasts, calling for an above-average season, with betwen 14-18 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. -- Roy 25  00:39, April 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * TWC released their forecasts for the season, calling for a near average season, 13-6-2. -- Roy 25  01:42, April 25, 2018 (UTC)

Pre-Season (Jan–May)
Adding this here if 2018 decides to be the fourth consecutive year to feature a pre-season storm. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:05, April 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto has only about 1.5 months left for him to form before the start of the season. There is still time though. -- Roy 25  00:40, April 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Its gonna happen in late May - Bluecaner, 14:44, April 18th, 2018
 * This model is showing a possibility of maybe a tropical depression, or near tropical depression 144 hours from now. Another pre-season storm? -- Roy 25  01:51, April 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * This model is showing a possibility of maybe a tropical depression, or near tropical depression 144 hours from now. Another pre-season storm? -- Roy 25  01:51, April 25, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Over Bahamas
First disturbance this year. Low chance, not expected to develop significantly. -- Roy 25  16:00, May 4, 2018 (UTC)

YaY!https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 first STWO of the year.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:10, May 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic awakens! Even if it is for basically nothing, its good (or not good, if this is going to be another 2017) to see the Atlantic back up and running. Send Help Please (talk) 19:32, May 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * It'd be more appropriate to call this an Area of Invest over the Bahamas, rather than the Caribbean. But in any instance, it's at near 0% for the next 2 and 5 days. Likely won't become much in the near future, if it becomes Alberto at all. Ryan1000 00:13, May 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * No successive STWOs. Lol. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, May 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * That was lame, but at least that was a sign saying the Atlantic has now started to be active for the year, like Send Help Please has said. -- Roy 25  16:14, May 5, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:GOM, SW of Florida
Another pre-season disturbance this year, 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, and 40% chance of developing in the next 5 days. -- Roy 25  19:59, May 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like shear is going down in the AOI's area... Send Help Please (talk) 19:34, May 14, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 20/30.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:58, May 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Many of the models are also trending away from development (for this system, anyway). Perhaps lower shear won't matter for this disturbance. Send Help Please (talk) 20:18, May 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Although this storm had the potential to develop, I don't see it happen. Alberto will have to most likely wait atm. T  G  2 0 1 8 22:09, May 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Heading north to land, I don’t think that it won’t develop. It is nearing land and we are still in the preseason anyway. ---70.190.21.73 00:11, May 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Might still have a chance if it significantly organizes before landfall, but now I only see this becoming a TD at most. But we never know what tricks this AOI has in store for us - it could even pull off an Emily from last year or Jose '11. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, May 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to 10/10. --70.190.21.73 14:21, May 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 0/0. It’s definitely not going to develop. --70.190.21.73 14:22, May 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Off from the TWO. --70.190.21.73 14:24, May 17, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Near Central America
Already the third pre-season disturbance. 0/20 at the moment. -- Roy 25  12:47, May 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one is worth watching. The ECMWF (which I'm lending greater credibility to) has been bringing this over Louisiana as a strong TS for several runs. The GFS, on the other hand, has been flip flopping with this, but now moves a weak cyclone over Cuba and Florida. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:35, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
First Atlantic invest. Models does show this becoming a tropical depression or even Alberto. -- Roy 25  22:07, May 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 0/40. -- Roy 25  23:43, May 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * There’s a chance that it may develop in a few days or so. --70.190.21.73 00:02, May 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * If this becomes Alberto within the next week, it would be the second consecutive incarnation of Alberto to form before the official start of the hurricane season, as the 2012 Alberto also formed in May. It would also make 2018 the 4th consecutive AHS to start early, a feat only previosuly accomplished by 1951-1954. I believe I mentioned this with Arlene of last year, but still, it would be neat to see. Unfortunately, this could be a threat to the Gulf Coast, hopefully not too bad though. Ryan1000 13:22, May 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/50. -- Roy 25  23:27, May 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/60. Environment expected to be more favorable in the GoM for development. -- Roy 25  12:18, May 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * We may get a PTC with this sometime late this week as it heads northward towards the Florida panhandle. Ryan1000 15:14, May 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/70. Increasing chance of a tropical depression or even Alberto. -- Roy 25  23:14, May 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * We may get only a tropical depression but I won’t be surprised if that becomes Alberto. It can at most, become a tropical storm. --70.190.21.73 00:31, May 24, 2018 (UTC)

Now it's up to 40/80. Alberto is on his way sometime in the next few days, he'll probably be more or less a repeat of his 2006 and/or 1994 incarnations, which also formed in this area and moved north towards the Florida panhandle as a tropical storm. Ryan1000 12:13, May 24, 2018 (UTC)

Now 70/90,here comes alberto!No.1 Mobile (talk) 17:32, May 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * You beat me. But the real question is, will this be a repeat of PTC10, a depression or Alberto? -- Roy 25  17:34, May 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * I doubt it'll be a mere PTC, it's likely to become Alberto sometime tomorrow or this weekend. But it won't get very strong due to the time of year it is. Ryan1000 18:21, May 24, 2018 (UTC)

Alberto, please don't mistake the US for pizza. ｕｒ　ｍａｉ　ｗａｉｆｕ　ｄｅｓｕ　ノ域囲真 21:11, May 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * This could threaten the southeastern US as it is to strike it near Memorial Day. --70.190.21.73 00:35, May 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * The models seem to be in a general agreement with an eventual landfall on the north central gulf coast, but they're split on the intensity of Alberto-to-be when it reaches the Florida panhandle . The GFS and the relatively new HMON model predict this won't be much more than a moderate tropical storm when it reaches the panhandle, which would be a best-case scenario, but the ECMWF and HWRF both make it a hurricane when it reaches the area; in fact, some recent runs of the Euro model foresees the possibility of the trough outrunning the storm and a ridge building in to replace it, which would recurve this storm from north-northeast to west-northwest, towards the Alabama-Mississippi border, and as a strong category 1 or even category 2 hurricane. Elena also did that in 1985, but it struck much later in the season and was a strong major hurricane when it did so. If this becomes hurricane Alberto when it makes landfall, it would be the earliest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. on record, and would be one of only a small handful of off-season landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, along with Alice in 1955. Ryan1000 03:15, May 25, 2018 (UTC)