Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

August
Is here, but aside from Gil crossing over, nothing's new. Ryan1000 06:30, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

The NHC is now issuing experimental GTWO's which predict a tropical cyclone's formation probability in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:24, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: West of Hurricane Gil
This AOI popped up on the TWO. It has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

I believe its 91E now.Allanjeffs 02:20, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * This could become Pewa after moving into the Central Pacific. If it develops before reaching the CPac (which I don't think will happen), it could become Henriette (or Ivo if the above invest develops).  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:16, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Allan, Wunderground does not have this invest put up yet on its tracking map. However, it has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Also, it looks like this AOI could become a re-Lala (1984), Iniki (1992), Li (1994), and/or Lana (2009) - all four of those storms begun as EPAC tropical depressions, but were named in the CPAC AOR. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The only invest 91 is ex-Dorian off of Florida. This one isn't an invest yet, but it could be one very soon. Ryan1000 14:03, August 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now it's CPac bound, and at 20%. Ryan1000 13:06, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * 0% outttttttttAllanjeffs 00:11, August 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * This AOI is off the TWO! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:05, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
20% risk, but not on GTWO. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:27, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * This is a big one some models have been showing. I doubt it'll affect land, but this could become our first major according to HWRF. Ryan1000 06:04, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * 20% and like I say probably our first major of the season.Allanjeffs 19:17, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Aside from this and the AOI near the Lessers, there's also a few waves off of Africa that could be worth watching in the long run, if they survive the dry air environment. Ryan1000 20:34, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin report is out.Up to 50knts and is the second lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the epacAllanjeffs 03:55, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yep, tied with Annette of 1976 and behind Adolph of 1983. Back to this, I'm surprised it's not invested yet. 40% chance for the next two days and 70% for five days. Should be Ivo real soon. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this will become Ivo, and maybe even be our first major.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:02, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Investe'd 50%/70%. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:13, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here comes Ivo, and possibly our season's first major. According to GFS, this one could be a long-term Hawaii threat. Ryan1000 04:33, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * How do you guys know this was invested? I'm not seeing anything on Wunderground. Anyway, chances are down slightly to 40%/70%. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:29, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I still think this will become Ivo, and possibly be a long-term threat to Hawaii.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:07, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * This invest is down to a 30% (60%) chance of tropical cyclone formation, but conditions should get better for it. Man, the EPAC is really rocking in terms of named storms and hurricanes this year. Major hurricanes, no. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:54, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%/40%. I'm starting to doubt development of this system. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:01, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * This invest is slowly grinding away...it is now at a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:46, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Well, guess what? This invest is up to a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation! I think we will see Ivo later today. This invest has really surprised us. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:16, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

(Edit conflict) Holy cow! This invest exploded overnight! Now it has an 80% chance in the next five days. Based on visible imagery, we could see a tropical depression later today. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:19, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like this invest should be Ivo not too long from now. ST✪12 20:18, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 50%.This invest is bipolar,It better develop or not.Allanjeffs 00:34, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

It has a 60% chance in the next five days. It still has a couple of days left before wind shear takes over. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:10, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

It only has until Thursday to develop,Imagine we were all thinking this was going to be the first major of the season and it still hasn`t develop.The irony.Allanjeffs 04:51, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Now it only has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Time is running out fast for this invest! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:20, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Down to a 30% chance. So much for this invest becoming our first major! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:38, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Bye, bye, 92E! It's at a 20% chance now, and as it enters the CPAC, it will not encounter any better conditions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:27, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I think this is done since this has entered unfavorable conditions. Remember when we were all expecting this to become a major? It didn't even become named. What a fail.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:52, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * It tried...poor invest. Ryan1000 17:21, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * The invest still has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now its chance has been downgraded to 10%. It was a promising storm, but it did not become anything significant at all. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Don't expect anything from this invest anymore. Its chance is down to near 0% and conditions are nothing but unfavorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:09, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Might do something like 93E which was only forecast to become a ts and this one that was forecast to become a major.Figures.Allanjeffs 15:21, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Behind Henriette
Wow, the EPac is really going on a hot streak. The one near Mexico could become a major hurricane (Ivo), and this will probrably become Juliette. Near 0% for now, and 20% for the next five days, but conditions are expected to improve, according to NHC. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this will become Juliette in a few days. The East Pacific has become really active lately!  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:05, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * This AOI is now at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next two days, and a 30% chance in the next five days. Gradual development should lead to a minor hurricane, in my opinion. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:43, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think a strong TS or minor hurricane is possible from future Juliette (or the CPac name Pewa, if it doesn't become a TS until then). Either way, this should follow Henriette and pass out to sea, missing Hawaii. Ryan1000 21:07, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested. No, this is a bit of a long-term Hawaii threat. Models have been showing it hitten there for days. 93E is more of a Hawaii threat though, since that's likely to be stronger. but 93E is also a threat to Jonhston Atoll in like a week since it's suppose to re-intensify when it arrives over there. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:17, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have doubts this will head directly towards Hawaii like Flossie did, but it's way too far out to tell. The Euro keeps it south of the Islands, the GFS also expects this to pass south of the islands, but it sees 92E hitting the Big Island 264 hours from now (but that's way too far out to be certain) and HWRF keeps this south of Hawaii as well. 92E could turn due west and threaten them in the long run, but this should stay south of them. It could become a hurricane though. Ryan1000 04:33, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10%/20%. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:30, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't know if this will become much. It might become Juliette if it develops before reaching the CPac (assuming the above invest develops into Ivo), or it might become Pewa if it develops after crossing into the CPac. I don't think this will threaten Hawaii that much.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:11, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Shower activity is very limited in this system. It is possible it could develop, though. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:55, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now it has only a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. I doubt this will become anything significant. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:46, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Back up to 20%. I would prefer this to become Pewa since Hawaii doesn't get a lot of named storms. I would want Juliette to wait in exchange for Pewa. The invest behind it looks to become Ivo too. ST✪12 20:20, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

This invest has potential, but tropical cyclone status is not guaranteed. It is also currently crossing into the CPAC. Should it become a tropical storm, it will be first CPAC AOR tropical storm since 2010's Tropical Storm Omeka. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:17, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Well, here we go! This invest has entered the CPAC. It has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:11, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Now the chance of tropical cyclone formation has been downgraded to 10%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:38, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

And now its down to near 0%. Conditions are not favorable for any development, so hats off to this invest! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:25, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Meh. Pewa will probably come later in the season,  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:55, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's still here, but its chance still remains at near 0%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, just when it was going to die, this AOI redeemed itself! Now its chance of tropical cyclone formation has been upped to a 20% chance again in the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * 80% Here comes the first tropical depression in the central pacific in a long time.I believe the last was Neki.Allanjeffs 14:52, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like Pewa is coming! FINALLY!!! :D  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:59, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) Wow! I never expected this! And Allan, the most recent CPAC-forming tropical depression was Omeka 2010. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:01, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Thanks Andrew didn`t remember that little guy.Maybe 92E can have the same fate as this one.Allanjeffs 15:19, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Woah, didn't check in lately on CPac, and this guy is up to 80%. Wow. Here comes TS Pewa, first storm to be named in CPac in 3 years. Ryan1000 16:58, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * A tropical depression might be here from this invest, so its at a near 100% chance of tropical cyclone formation right now. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:09, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
Soewhere along the line, presumably soon after it got itself back together, this invest was redesignated as 90C. This invest is actually at 30%, since the AoI to its west is shearing it apart. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:29, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, like Gil vs Henriette, Pewa is dominant over 90C. This could still become Unala, but it'd better get on with it while dodging Pewa, if it can. Ryan1000 20:58, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Pewa's enjoying its breakfast; this invest is down to 10% as it essentially crashes into the northeastern edge of Pewa's circulation. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:15, August 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * I am not sure if this is the right invest, but it is now at a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:54, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Upgrade to the 2nd storm of the season.CP, 02, 2013081900,, BEST, 0, 170N, 1778W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 100, 20, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, UNALA, M,Allanjeffs 01:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't see this as Unala up yet on CPac hurricane center or Wikipedia, but maybe ATCF is off on this one. Ryan1000 02:27, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Unala
Well this was a surprise. Winds are 35 kt with a rather low pressure of 998 mbar. Not forecast to get any stronger though, but hey, 2013 is now the first year since 2009 to have multiple storms form in the CPAC! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:01, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Yes I was right, I knew she was here,and yes she is dying we just need one more name storm to finish the 3rd set and seeing how this invest was upgrade from 20% to ts it may very well happen as they are two more disturbances to the east.Allanjeffs 03:05, August 19, 2013 (UTC) GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 2330Z AND A 0020Z ASCAT PASS DEMONSTRATED THAT THE SUSPECT AREA FORMERLY KNOWN AS INVEST 90C WAS ACTUALLY TROPICAL STORM UNALA. Good ol CPHC.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:23, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * CPHC at it's finest :P YE Tropical Cyclone  05:57, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Central Pacific is just exploding this year. We already have our second named system in the CPAC. Tropical Storm Unala is looking to cross the dateline and then zoom out to sea. Not expecting it to become a hurricane whatsoever. ST✪12 05:27, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Ah, I must've been early then. Well, it made the upgrade just before it crossed the dateline. Won't do much though. And the 30% area behind Unala could become Wali; also the 20% area behind that has a chance of becoming Ana, if it holds on. That would make for 4 storms forming in CPac, first time since 1992 and the only time in a non-El Nino year, if I recall correctly. Pretty impressive. Ryan1000 12:20, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * I never expected Unala to come from this. If it crosses the dateline, it will mark the first time since 2009 two storms did so in one year! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:56, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * And per the CPHC, Unala has crossed the International Date Line! Yes! 2013's now the first season since 2009 to do this! Unfortunately, Pewa will just tear its little sibling apart. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:09, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Unala = cat 1 typhoony :D That's what I think. Pewa? Unala? HAHA! THE FUN HAS BEEN DOUBLED!  Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! Pinkie pie signature and infobox gif.gif 13:20, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * We have Unala?! WTF? The Central Pacific is going crazy right now! I think this will only peak as a TS.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:11, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * She is a td by the JWTC probably going to die later today.Allanjeffs 16:31, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Unala
Downgraded to a TD by the JMA. This will probably be the last bulletin on Unala. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:09, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Unala
Pewa had a yummy lunch! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:14, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Mexico
This AOI popped up on the TWO. It is at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. However, conditions for this system are very unfavorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:49, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

And it has gone off the TWO. Oh well, conditions were not that favorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:19, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Hawaii
This AOI currently has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. If anyone looks at the CPHC GTWO, you will find the CPAC is cooking right now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

As of 0000 UTC, this AOI now has a 20% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours. However, any further development of this system should happen very slowly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 60% expect this to become another tropical storm after Pewa.Allanjeffs 21:46, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yikes, CPac is going nuts. If the system behind this becomes Pewa, this would be named Unala. I don't expect this to become as strong though, and both this and the above system should stay well away from Hawaii anyways. Ryan1000 22:53, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Oh my goodness! The CPAC is insane! After going over two and a half years without a named storm, we could easily get two at once. Looks like we are in for a wild week here. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:45, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Oh my god, what? I was just like freaking out once I saw the CPAC graphic on the NHC website. I was just like "What the heck? There's just a giant explosion of activity! TWO 80%s wow!". This is the most impressive thing I've ever seen from the CPAC (besides Hurricane Ioke). Two large areas of activity in which could be named? We are looking to have Pewa and Unala before it's all said and done. I seriously was just in a loss of words on how shocked I was when I first saw this. ST✪12 01:24, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Hope the two are name and that a third develop so we can use the last name of the third set after being use for 13 years.Allanjeffs 03:31, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Bad news...This AOI's organization collapsed. It's chance of formation has been downgraded to 30%. Also, one of these AOIs used to be Invest 93E, so it would be better to continue that AOI's discussion up above. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:12, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * No, that's the invest that used to be 93E. This is the AoI that's at 100%. (Confusing, isn't it?) Anyway, it's approaching the midpoint between 170W and the International Date Line, so I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes Trami instead of Pewa. Hopefully we'll get the latter, but I'm not too sure we will at this point. Regardless, it looks excellent on infrared imagery. I honestly think it might be Pewa or One-C already. I mean, if it's strong enough to create hostile conditions for the former 93E... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:26, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Are you sure this is the one Dylan because if it is has been renumber.Allanjeffs 13:12, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Forget what I said upgrade straigtht into Pewa.CP, 01, 2013081612,, BEST, 0, 100N, 1730W, 35, 1005, TS.Allanjeffs 13:12, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * The last advisory on Guillermo from 2009 is up o_o Maybe it has something to do with setting up advisories for Pewa? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:50, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Pewa

 * Upgrade.TROPICAL STORM PEWA Finally activity after 3 yearsAllanjeffs 14:58, August 16, 2013 (UTC)<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">.

The CPHC advisory package has yet to make it to the front page of their site, but it's up on Wunderground. 35 kt, 1005 mbar. Forecast to peak at 50 kt just after it crosses the dateline, and weaken afterward. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:04, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * The IVCN model has Pewa peaking at or just under minimal hurricane strength. How good is the IVCN, does anyone know? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:14, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Its not the best model of all but not the worse it is not bullish like the gfdl or ships,so it might I believe she will become a hurricane or a typhoon,With the name Pewa being use now we just need two more name storms to end the third set of use and leaving us one more set.Allanjeffs 15:56, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Btw I discover that of the 4 name retired in the central pacific 3 out of 4 are with an I letter Iwa,Ioke and Iniki.Paka is the only one not starting with and I and be retired.That may mean that Iune have a great chance of being retired when use or it might pull and Isaac and be the only I veteran not being retired.Allanjeffs 16:12, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yes! We finally have Pewa. I think this will become a moderate to strong TS.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:17, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * (ec) Thanks for the info, Allan. The first name on the fourth set is Ana, which is also in use in the Atlantic and will next be used in 2015. I'm hoping that we have just enough CPAC activity this year and next year so that we will have a rare occasion where one name (Ana) is used in two different basins (ATL and CPAC) in the same calendar year (2015). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:19, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

PEWA!!! PEWA!!! Yes! Expect this to reach the WPAC! Also, the CPHC expect winds of 55 knots before it reaches the dateline. Sorry for my immaturity, but it is not everyday you see a CPAC system get named (You should have seen me when Omeka got named!)   Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:36, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Also, Dylan, that phenomenon could technically happen this year as well. In the WPAC, Tropical Storm Mangkhut's PAGASA name was Kiko. If we can hit the K name (Kiko) in the EPAC, it will happen this year too (EPAC and WPAC). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:57, August 16, 2013 (UTC) PEEEWWWAAAHHHHHHH 😃 I am so glad for this storm. Could become a cat 1 or 2 and reach the wpac. imagine if kiko did that would be funny lol 😜 Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 18:23, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, Pewa will not have enough time in the CPAC to become a hurricane, but it could Oliwa or Paka out over in the WPAC. Also, the pronounciation of Pewa is PEH-vah. And Allan, just because Iune is the final original I CPAC name does not guarantee its retirement once its used. Of the original six F names in the Atlantic, Frederic was retired in 1979, Fran after 1996, Floyd in 1999, Frances in 2004, and Felix in 2007. Even though Florence is the last original 'F' name, it is still on the list. Same with the "I"s in the Atlantic (Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Irene, and Isaac; only Isaac remains). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:01, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew that is why I said it might not be retired,but it has more of a chance than others,we just need to wait and see.Allanjeffs 20:07, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * 11am advisory keeps Pewa at the same intensity. Looking at the satellite imagery, I'm honestly surprised; Pewa looks excellent. In my own unprofessional opinion, I'd say Pewa looks like a 50-55 knot storm on satellite imagery. And I forgot about that, Andrew, thanks for reminding me! We'd have to pull a 2010 not to make it to Kiko this year. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:52, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pewa could become a typhoon in the West Pacific basin, but other than causing some unpleasant weather for a few of the Marshall Islands or Wake Island, Pewa will probrably be a fishspinner. Ryan1000 20:55, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now up to 45 kt/1004 mbar. Surprisingly small decrease in pressure given the 10-knot increase in winds. The models are really liking this thing right now. GFDL's going nuts, making Pewa a 130-knot super typhoon in 132 hours. IVCN makes it a 100-knot Category 3, HWRF a 90-knot Category 2. This could be fun to watch. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99)


 * I doubt it happen but a cat 1 is not out of the question imo.Allanjeffs 04:52, August 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pewa has intensified to 55 knots/1001 mbar. I have an Oliwa and Paka feeling right now... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:56, August 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Pewa's now at 60 knots/1000 mbar. It is expected to become a typhoon west of the dateline, which would make it the first storm to cross from the Central Pacific to the Western Pacific since Tropical Depression Two-C in 2009. Also, should Pewa cross into the WPAC, how should we handle this on the forums here? Should we continue the discussion on this forum? Or could we start a section on Pewa on the WPAC forum? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:22, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nah, let's keep it here. I'll put a link on the WPAC forum. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:51, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Pewa
Pewa has become the first storm since Ioke in 2006 to cross the dateline as a tropical storm! (Kika and Maka were extratropical when they crossed, and Tropical Depression Two-C remained a tropical depression.) Anyways, the JMA is reporting winds of 50 knots (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 994 millibars. The JTWC is reporting winds of 55 knots. The JMA take Pewa to a 60 knot (10-minute), 975 millibar severe tropical storm, and the JTWC take Pewa to 90 knots (1-minute). Assuming Pewa becomes a typhoon, it will mark the first time since Paka in 1997 a tropical storm formed east of the Date Line, but did not attain hurricane-force winds (a.k.a. typhoon intensity) until after crossing it. (Huko does not count because it already had hurricane-force winds before the crossing!) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:45, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * All the major models develop Pewa into a cat 4 or 5.Allanjeffs 12:29, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * If Pewa explodes in WPac it might be a threat to some islands over there. Hopefully it misses them, the last time we had a storm explode after crossing from CPac to WPac was Paka in 1997, and Oliwa did so earlier that year too. JMA's current forecast for Pewa takes it to 975 mbars 5 days out, but it might get stronger than that. And yeah, for basin-crossovers, we can just put a link to the page where that storm originally developed. Ryan1000 14:51, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this could become a super typhoon, or pull an Oliwa or Paka.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:15, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoons Sarah and Ruby (1967 and 1972, respectively) also exploded once they crossed the Date Line. I think Category 3 status is a good estimate for Pewa right now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:12, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan most models see Pewa moving northeast once it strength.Allanjeffs 19:31, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

The JTWC has upped Pewa's winds to 60 knots (1-minute, 65 mph). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:46, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * I never said it would reach Japan or other countries over in Asia (it won't), but it could threaten some islands out in the open Pacific on it's way. I doubt it'll hurt them too bad though, if it does at all. Ryan1000 02:27, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * 55 kt (10-min) and 990 mbar per JMA, 60 kt (1-min, 70 mph) per JTWC. Almost a typhoon by JTWC's standards. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:09, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * And now ,per a JTWC update, Pewa has 1-minute winds of 65 knots. Per JTWC standards, this is the fourth typhoon of the year! (I know it's not official.) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:01, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * JTWC downgraded to a 60-knot tropical storm. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula
A new AOI has stirred up in the EPAC. It is at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next five days. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:17, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Meh. I don't think we will see much from this. It might become a depression or a TS in a few days, but it will probably not get strong.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:20, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * I disagree, Steven! Conditions are favorable for gradual development in the next few days. For the next 48 hours, its chances of tropical cyclone formation remain at 10%, but in the next five days, the chances have exploded to 70%! We could see another tropical depression in the EPAC soon! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:49, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Andrew that was another system that only appear like times in the TWO the one you are talking about is the new one which I am almost sure it will become Ivo.Allanjeffs 11:55, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't think I've ever, under NHC's 5-day outlook, seen such a difference in % chance of developing. 10% for 2 days but 70% for 5? Here comes Ivo! And hopefully a major hurricane. Ryan1000 14:51, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dang, that much of a difference between 48 hours and 5 days?!? Well, here comes Ivo! And probably our first major.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:17, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's not gonna become a major. It might hit Baja though and provide rain to YE. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:26, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * The AOI's chances of becoming tropical are now at 20% and 80% for the next two and five days, respectively. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:27, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Its chances for the next 48 hours are now at 30%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:17, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

92C.INVEST
This one is behind Unala, and at 30%. Hopefully it becomes Wali. :D Ryan1000 12:26, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Man, the CPAC is acting like the EPac did during the good old 80's and 90's. :) Also, I would like to point out a record this invest might break. If it developes, the 2013 Pacific hurricane season will have gotten its third earliest CPAC named storm ever, easily eclipsing 1984's Tropical Storm Moke, which formed on September 4. Source: some old revision of the List of Pacific hurricanes Wikipedia page. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:04, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

The CPAC is really going crazy right now! I hope this becomes Wali, and the other AOI becomes Ana. :D  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:15, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

And now 92C's chances of tropical cyclone formation are now at 40%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:02, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-C
And here comes Wali. (post left by Allan)

And now the CPHC has it up. What is going on in the CPAC? After being dead for three years, three tropical depressions come at once!!! Just a little wind increase and Moke '84's record as the earliest third-named CPAC system on record will be beaten big time. One more CPAC storm and we will tie 1982! I thought this was a La Nina! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

ooooo I get it. Will this cross the WPAC? Probably. Walli the Whale. Let's play Where's Wali! Ok. This should be a TS. THIS IS PINKAMENA 20:45, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * A storm a day keeps the critics away :P -- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:05, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * I doubt it'll be stronger than a minimal TS at most, but 3 storms is descent for CPac. The AOI behind this one is now 10% and weakening. Ryan1000 21:05, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

I don't think this will become Wali. It is expected to remain a tropical depression as it barely crosses the international dateline. It would be pretty incredible if it does become Wali though. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 22:28, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: West of Mexico AOI
We have a new AOI! It has a near 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next 5 days. Slow development is possible as it remain stationary. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:02, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie Comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.
 * Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme".

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: Isaac829 E-Mail  16:59, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - No.
 * Barbara - 0% - No.
 * Cosme - 0% - No.
 * Dalila - 0% - No.
 * Erick - -∞% - No.
 * Flossie - 10% - Wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - No.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.
 * Pewa - 0% - No.
 * Unala - 0% - No.

ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. More to come...
 * Alvin? #No.
 * Barbara? #No.
 * Cosme #No.
 * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO.
 * Erick? #No.

Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions:

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville!
 * 2) Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards.
 * 3) Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name.
 * 4) Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances.
 * 5) Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * 6) Flossie - 2% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end.
 * 7) Gil - 0% - It did nothing special.
 * 8) Henriette - 0% - Henriette may have broken our Category 1 streak, but it is staying.
 * 9) Pewa - TBA - Still Active
 * 10) Unala - 0% - Unala was quite an interesting storm meteorologically. However, it became Pewa's lunch before doing anything.

Here's my predictions!

Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Hell no.
 * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it.
 * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough.
 * Dalila - 0% - Nope.
 * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - Fishie.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.
 * Pewa - ? - Still active

STO12's Predictions:
 * ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here.
 * BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement.
 * COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme.
 * DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement.
 * ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement.
 * FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy.
 * GIL: 0% Just another addition to our streak of cat 1's, far from land too.
 * HENRIETTE: 0% Was certainly impressive to see it do what it did. But no retirement is to be arranged. Hopefully Henriette will impress us just as much in 2019.
 * PEWA: ? Predictions for Pewa will be released once the storm has dissipated.
 * UNALA: 0% A rare weak storm that caused no impact to land.

<font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 22:44, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan Grand Speaks:

East Pacific: Central Pacific: Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again?
 * Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names...
 * Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah.
 * Dalila - 1% - See Cosme.
 * Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe.
 * Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish.
 * Henriette - 0% - Became a cat. 2, but no impacts on land.
 * Pewa - ?? - Not sure, but it might cause some damage to islands in WPac.

I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. <font face="trebuchet MS">Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin: 0% fish
 * Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough
 * Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves
 * Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all.
 * Erick 0% nop another fish
 * Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur
 * Gil 0% fa-fa-fai-fai-fail,fail fail
 * Henriette:0% No my dear you are staying with the other 7 names that have been use,better luck next time.
 * Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:36, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Barbara 3% aint gonna happen
 * 2) Erick 1% Should go, but no
 * 3) Flossie 20% Actually, it has a better chance than some of you think. Hawaii requested Daniel 06 and Kenneth 05 after r all.

And they were still not retire,if Agatha that kill hundreds didn`t go there is no excuse for Flossie to leave.Allanjeffs 16:33, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Actually, Allan, that is not exactly true. The EPAC is the basin the WMO randomly retires names from. Alma was retired, but not Agatha. They retired Ismael, but not Norbert or Jimena. They retired Kenna, but not Liza, Madeline, or Lane. They retired Pauline, but not Tara. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:07, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Some retirements from the WMO seem random for EPac, but Flossie's chances of retirement are still slim. Just because some random names like Fefa of 1991 were retired doesn't mean Flossie will be. I have doubts it will happen, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 21:08, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Alvin has a TCR, and upped to 60 mph.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:20, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * 2nd southernmost TC on record for EPac, behind 1983's Adolph. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara's is out, not much is new. Ryan1000 06:10, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * It was reassessed to be slightly stronger than operationally estimated, though. 70 kts/983 mbar is the new peak intensity, versus the 65 kt/990 mbar operational peak. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC)