Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

October
Yawn...well, here's EPac's last month to get a major (unless we pull a 2011 and get a Kenneth-like storm in November). Ryan1000 01:40, October 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Oh, and ACEwise, we're 50% of where we otherwise should be. Well, Atlantic is doing worse, 70% below average. Ryan1000 23:48, October 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * According to the NHC's September summary for this year's EPAC season, we are now the first hurricane season since 2003 to make it to October without a major hurricane. Wow. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:42, October 2, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
Another one...10% for 2 days and 20% for 5. I doubt it'll develop, due to limited favorable conditions ahead of it. And even if it does, I hope we get a major out of this, and not another fail. Ryan1000 17:16, October 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * I seriously doubt we will see anything come out of this AOI, but if it ever does develop, then it will be yet another fail. It's not going to become a major, that's for sure.Steven09876 T 23:00, October 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * If it develop because it might it will be another td or mid grade ts.I am sorry Ryan but models are not showing a favorable enviroment in the Epac for the next 10 to 11 days.I doubt we get a major now the Epac door is cloosing.We might get a Kenneth but with 2013 style I doubt it.Allanjeffs 19:55, October 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's up to 20% (in the next 48 hours). This has been lingering over the past few days without much development, and I don't think we will see Narda from this. Steven09876 T 17:40, October 5, 2013 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
This AOI has been invested. For the next five days, it now has a 40% chance of becoming tropical. It also looks much better organized. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:23, October 6, 2013 (UTC)

Another fail that will probably only reach ts status and then weaken.Allanjeffs 15:04, October 6, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 60% here comes Narda.Allanjeffs 18:22, October 6, 2013 (UTC)

invest_RENUMBER_ep932013_ep142013.renAllanjeffs 19:39, October 6, 2013 (UTC)

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬(ஜ۩۞۩ஜ)▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬ ­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­▬

ＳＨＵＴ　ＵＰ　ＡＮＤ　ＥＮＪＯＹ　ＴＨＥ　NADACANE！

▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬(ஜ۩۞۩ஜ)▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬▬­­­­­­­­­­­­­­­▬

Lol, jk. I'm sure this will be a C2 Kenneth. Anyway, the last storm will be Octave or Priscilla. Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 20:41, October 6, 2013 (UTC)



Now td 14EAllanjeffs 20:41, October 6, 2013 (UTC)

THIS IS NADA!!! (plays Sparta remix)  Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 20:43, October 6, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E
<span style="color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;line-height:21px;">Woot! Expected to be a TS only?!!? Well, a Kenneth-y style path is projected tho :o  Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. <span style="color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;line-height:21px;"> 20:43, October 6, 2013 (UTC)

<p style="margin-top:6px;margin-bottom:6px;overflow:hidden;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:arial,sans-serif;line-height:17px;"><span style="color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;line-height:21px;">Eh, forecast to be another weaking TS. Here comes Narda..or should I say, Nada. Ryan1000 20:47, October 6, 2013 (UTC)

(edit conflict) Geez Liz, is all that format text really necessary? Anyway, this storm is officially TD 14-E per NHC. 30 kts/1007 mbar per the debut advisory. The forecast peak is higher than I expected, at 60 kts. I doubt we'll see our first Western Hemisphere major from future Narda, but the EPAC season's eighth hurricane might not be so out of the question after all. Then again, this is 2013... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:48, October 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Lol, I was just feeling full of beans today! Talking about beans, I can find many words that rhyme with bean! Lean, mean, bean, spleen, unclean. Anyway, I'm pretty sure the NadaNadaNadaCane will attain at least a C1. I think this will be a 2013 surprise (Nadacane will think this is 2011 btw) and bounce as a MASSIVE, I mean MASSIVE C3. JMO though! Pinkie pie eg sigpic.png Grape jelly and sour cream on spicy tortillas are the best. 20:51, October 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Our eight hurricane of the season will form from this,but don`t expèct nothing more than a cat 1 or 2 at most.Allanjeffs 21:14, October 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * The NHC take this depression to 60 knots (70 mph). For all you know, the depression could easily blow up, but becoming a hurricane should be decent enough. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:18, October 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's a depression already?! Looks like this has a shot at hurricane status, and i really hope this becomes a hurricane. I'm tired of seeing failure storms. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:08, October 7, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Narda
Should reach hurricane strength, continuing the trend of C1 spam.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:38, October 7, 2013 (UTC)

Don`t understand you Steven?Manuel was a cat 1 Narda should be a cat 1 too.Allanjeffs 04:03, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Isaac, considering the fact that we have only had 9 hurricanes between both the EPAC and Atlantic so far this year, and it was a month-long barrage of weak TSs between Henriette and Manuel, you should be more grateful than that. Anyway, Narda is up to 40 kts/1003 mbar and is expected to peak at 70 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:46, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * NADACANE IS GONNA BE 85MPH WOOOOO Nadaberto, much? Let the hurricane shipping begin... Narda nada whatever you call it (lol) is the humberto of the pacific. NardaXHumberto lol. Pinkie pie eg sigpic.png Isn't it weird that pinapples never wear bikinis? NOT REALLY! 20:03, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Narda is at 55 kts/998 mbar right now. Forecast to peak at 75 kts, as Liz stated above. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:09, October 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dry air is entering Narda this might cause some complications.Allanjeffs 20:30, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, hopefully it can make it to a hurricane. If Narda becomes a 'cane, it'll make for 8 hurricanes in EPac, which is pretty near-normal, but still no majors. We typically have 5 per year in the EPac, 3 or 4 by this time of year. Ryan1000 21:47, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Still at 55 kts/998 mbar per ATCF. I predict that Narda will peak here. That's what we get for putting our faith in a 2013 storm, guys... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:32, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dry air and stable air have reach Narda sooner than thought.Allanjeffs 12:41, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yep. Sadly this is what we get in the Western Hemisphere in 2013. Tropical storm a weak hurricane spam. 2014 will be better. Simlover123 <font color="White">   01:59, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * 50 kts/999 mbar. ...NARDA WEAKENS AND NO LONGER FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE... That's 2013 for ya. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:53, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * What should have been Henriette's sister is now collapsing! I will be watching the WPAC right now... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:05, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sigh...anothr failure. And 2013 has struck again... Ryan1000 12:36, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 35 kts/1007 mbar per ATCF. This image sums up Karen and Narda perfectly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:29, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * lol, trolololololololo! DAT FACE XD I defo agree! NADACANE fails!! Pinkie pie eg sigpic.png Rubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 19:36, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * From the latest NHC discussion: "NARDA IS QUICKLY ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NADA." Forecaster Blake, I love you. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:43, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Lol I can imagine this being a meme! Lol!!! Nada LOL it rhymes xD Pinkie pie eg sigpic.png Rubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 21:04, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Lol that NHC discussion post is pretty funny XD. Narda and Nada actually rhyme! But anyway, Narda was yet another failure that went 2013 style on us. We all thought this would become a hurricane at first, but now its weakening rapidly due to unfavorable conditions without ever becoming a hurricane. When will the Atlantic and the EPac stop feeding us all these little epic failure TS storms? I want another hurricane, for once. Especially in the Atlantic. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:27, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Narda
Fail.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:50, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Narda's still producing convection. This just might be kept as a tropical cyclone when the 2pm advisory rolls in shortly. "Ah, ah, ah, ah, stayin' alive, stayin' alive..." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:47, October 9, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Narda
It's dead. Hats off to another epic failure. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:18, October 10, 2013 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
20% for 2 days and 60% for 5. Looks like a prime one to explode if conditions remain favorable...major hurricane Octave anyone? (well, hopefully...) Ryan1000 20:17, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

I hope so! Octave better end his 12-year wait well. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:29, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

This might be the last or one of the last time that the Epac can redeem itself.Allanjeffs 22:00, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * It might be now or never for EPac to get a major, I guess...If Octave-to be doesn't make it, I doubt we'll see a major at all here. Ryan1000 22:05, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Future-Octave looks like one of the best chances for a major so far this season. It is expected to enter increasingly favorable conditions, and by the end of the week, conditions might be prime for this AOI (or Octave) to explode. Major hurricane Octave anyone? Hopefully. We could see something big from this in the long term, and possibly our first (and most likely the only) major hurricane. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:34, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Favorable how? Right now I'm skeptical simply because it's 2013... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:10, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * A lot of the models take this into Baja California in a few days. Maybe we don't want this to explode...
 * ...what the hell am I even saying?! Of course we want this to explode! We just want this to pull a Rick '09 and weaken until it's almost nothing before landfall, that's all. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:30, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * We don't want this to explode because we want to keep the idea of 2013 being the worst year ever. If the EPAC has a majorless season that'd be pretty good testament to how awful it's been. Yqt1001 (talk) 20:36, October 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * 2013 will already be remember by many in Mexico because of Manuel.I don`t want this to explode and I am sorry Dylan I really want to this year without a major.Allanjeffs 20:52, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * hereeee comes Octave!! im kinda imagining this storm to be like jova two years ago with a touch of RickRoll'09. Get it?!?! >:D Pinkie pie eg sigpic.png Rubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 23:28, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * We've had 7 hurricanes thus far this year, "Octave" would be the 8th, hence it's prefix. Might not be a mjaor though. Ryan1000 00:12, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * 99% of the models bring it at high-end ts or mid grade cat 1,-_- lol XD.not a major I see unless it does explosive intensification.Allanjeffs 00:18, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I predict a peak of 45 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:36, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's down to 50% (48 hours) and 60% (5 days). While conditions remain favorable, this AOI is struggling. I don't think we will even see a hurricane out of this, and Dylan's prediction might come true. I predict a peak of around 50 kts. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:22, October 10, 2013 (UTC)

(←)Now this invest should have a hard time even let alone getting numbered. It's chances of formation have fallen to 50% chance of developing. At the rate our season is going, we will be the third EPac season in history since the start of the satellite era in 1971 without a major, after 1977 and 2003. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, October 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Bam! A tropical depression might come after all! There is a 60% chance of formation in the next two and five days as organization improves. The window is small, but this invest can do it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:55, October 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here comes Octave, but it will probably be yet another  EPIC FAIL!  <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 20:32, October 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * TD 15 is now here by ATCF.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Invest_RENUMBER_ep942013_ep152013.ren.Allanjeffs 00:58, October 13, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E
Its here.Allanjeffs 02:39, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Currently at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1003 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg), this depression is forecast to become 40 knots (45 mph) of failure per the NHC. Baja California could get something, but it will not be very significant. Man, 17 tropical storms and no major hurricanes? This is 1968 all over again! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:51, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * You mean 15 right ? but make that sixteen as the next area near this one is expect to become tropical storm.Allanjeffs 03:00, October 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * And the fail train goes on... Ryan1000 03:14, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ryan, it sure does. Allan, I counted Pewa and Unala in the tropical storm count above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:19, October 13, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Octave
Now named, but...won't get much stronger. Ryan1000 10:53, October 13, 2013 (UTC)

At 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h)/1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), Octave should reach 45 knots (50 mph) per the NHC. If it gets any stronger, Baja California might need to watch out. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:29, October 13, 2013 (UTC)

Octave is here! We have yet another epic fail. C'mon EPac, stop it with the failings, and produce another hurricane for once! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:04, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'll take back what I said above, since Octave is now up to 65 mph! That was unexpected. In fact, it now even has an outside shot at hurricane status now. Looks like it won't be an epic fail after all! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:58, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Despite Octave's jump to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h)/995 mbar (hPa; 29.38 inHg) and developing an eye feature, the "eye" is so tinted it is disturbing any further progress of development. Sorry, Steven, Octave only has ~12 more hours to become a hurricane at all before shear takes over. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:36, October 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like EPac is trying to, well, "not suck", which is better than failing, I'll say. Ryan1000 00:06, October 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * And the intensity plunges to 35 kts. Next! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:05, October 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Scratch that, didn't check the map to find it was so close to the coast. Landfall is less than 12 hours away. Oopsie... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:08, October 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Octave
Moving inland and dying. Most of Octave's moisture is being sheared away into upper Mexico and Texas. It shouldn't last much longer from here on out. Ryan1000 11:07, October 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * To sum it up, Octave was a cross-breed between Ivo, Juliette, and Kiko. It did come close to hurricane intensity, however. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:10, October 15, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave
Hats off. Ryan1000 23:01, October 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, Octave didn't become a hurricane. But it did bring some rain to Baja, so I'll say that it wasn't a complete fail (unlike Priscilla, which is such an epic fail). Hats off to Octave. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:05, October 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * At least Octave tried, like Kiko. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:39, October 16, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Octave
We have a new area of disturbed weather, but Tropical Depression Fifteen-E should inhibit any development in the coming days. It has a 10% chance of becoming tropical in the next two and five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:19, October 13, 2013 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Invest an up to 20% here comes td sixteen.Allanjeffs 06:32, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not sure Allan, it's losing organization due to it's proximity to Octave. It might not develop at all, unless Octave moves away quickly. Ryan1000 10:56, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * I would rather have this AOI dissipate than become tropical. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:29, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 30% this might become priscila before all is done.Allanjeffs 18:09, October 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope we don't see Priscilla from this, or it will probably be yet another fail. It's too close to Octave to become something strong. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:16, October 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Are you sure? It's 60%. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:33, October 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * What the heck?! Looks like Priscilla is coming, probably this evening or tonight if trends continue. This is really organizing faster than I thought it would! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:58, October 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep should be another tropical storm or maybe a weak hurricane.Allanjeffs 00:02, October 14, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Priscilla
She is here and to fail,even though I like the name.Allanjeffs 12:37, October 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not bad, this'll make for 18 named storms (counting the two in CPac), but still no major hurricanes. Ryan1000 00:06, October 14, 2013 (UTC)

And the fail train continues...16 named storms, 7 hurricanes but no majors. Again Allan, if the headers are sticking out like that, switch the editing format from visual mode to source mode to put it at the front of the page. Ryan1000 17:40, October 14, 2013 (UTC)

Haha sorry Ryan I forgot will do it next ime :P.Allanjeffs 20:28, October 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * No prob, I can always fix it anyhow. At least the EPac had a decent number of named storms this year, the lackluster intensity of those storms is what makes it kinda boring though. But 2013 EPac season was definitely memorable, especially with Manuel swamping parts of Mexico and to a lesser extent, Flossie giving Hawaii a scare for the first time in two decades. Ryan1000 22:11, October 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's weakening already, the hell? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:04, October 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel was the only memorable thing,Priscilla was such a fail it has now start to weaken and will probably die tomorrow.2013 Atlantic and Epac has been really boring without majors to track.Almost the same as the Atlantic and the Epac should start to quiet down first than the Atlantic.If we don`t have another Kenneth it looks like the Epac will end without a major.Allanjeffs 03:30, October 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * We will be having an El Nino next year so EPac will most likely have a major to track by then, but the Atlantic might see another down year, unless it pulls a 1972, 1983, 1992, 1994 and gets a notable storm (or a 2004, unlikely though). Ryan1000 11:07, October 15, 2013 (UTC)\


 * Priscilla is the epic fail. It is only at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) and should die from here on out. At least it looks somewhat somewhat decent on satellite imagery. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:13, October 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Priscilla
Another fish, another fail... Ryan1000 23:01, October 15, 2013 (UTC)

Bye Priscilla. God, you were such an ' EPIC FAIL!!! 'I'm soo tired of these storms that do nothing but steal great and wonderful names from the list, and Priscilla was one of these. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:10, October 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Priscilla looks well-defined on satellite imagery, but it should degenerate in 36 hours. Hey, I'm fine with Priscilla failing miserably. The name Raymond is what I am worried about. The past two Raymond's were Category 4 hurricanes. If that trend bucks this year (Yeah, Ray, good luck even becoming a hurricane! Wait until 2019!), I will give up on the EPAC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:38, October 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * If anyone looks at the NOAA satellites for Priscilla, you will find a very sad excuse of a tropical cyclone. The depression is at 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h)/1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg) and is expected to degenerate in 24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, October 17, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Priscilla
Priscilla's miserable third EPAC life is over. Hopefully, it will do better in 2019. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:16, October 17, 2013 (UTC)

AOI.South of Guatemala
Another one on the TWO. This is at 0% for now, but conditions could improve later on, and it's at 30% for 5 days. Raymond anyone? Ryan1000 18:56, October 17, 2013 (UTC)

Yep will probably be Raymond but nothing that will be strong.Allanjeffs 20:42, October 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * I also think this will become Raymond. Well, according to Andrew's post above, the past two Raymond's were Category 4s. I hope that this year's "Raymond" becomes a major so it can continue the streak (as long as it doesn't affect land), but since this is 2013 I doubt that will happen. I predict this invest will peak at minimal hurricane strength (around 80 mph). <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:37, October 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Some slow development of this AOI is possible in the next several days. However, I want something decent from this system. In my opinion, the name Raymond is probably the most powerful name of this EPAC naming list. It was the name of a rare Hawaii-landfalling hurricane which peaked as a 125 knot Category 4 in 1983 and a Baja California landfaller in 1989 that also became a 125 knot Category 4 hurricane. Hopefully, Raymond can continue his luck and become a 125 knot system again, but he's going to have a real tough time this year doing so. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:30, October 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sorry folks, but since this is 2013, I'd say that Raymond will probably peak as a mid-grade TS. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:31, October 18, 2013 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Here comes Raymond but will be at most just a mid cat 1 but it might very well be a mid grade ts or strong ts like Octave as conditions have decay in the Epac.This is a strong name so I hope it doesn`t fail but there is always a first time.Allanjeffs 05:03, October 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Cat 1 and no more 80for peak or maybe 85mph. This was before the post above so check that one to see my thoughts in what is going to be Raymond.Allanjeffs 02:42, October 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't expect this to intensify much knowing how this year as a whole has gone, but I hope it does get very strong so we finally have something good to track. Ryan1000 15:02, October 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, conditions should support some development of this invest, but I very highly doubt it will become the 125 knot Category 4 hurricane I want. Regardless, Invest 96E now has a 30% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and a 50% chance in the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me !


 * Invest 96E continues to gradually develop and organize. It now has a 40% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and a 60% chance in the next 120 hours as it moves westward at 5 to 10 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:03, October 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here comes Raymond! I hope this becomes a major, but since this is 2013 that will probably not happen. I still think we will see a hurricane from this though. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 03:54, October 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * This invest is forecast to at least attain cat 2 status as conditions looks more favorable than ever for this to explode into a major this is the last shot of the epac to have a major.Allanjeffs 03:51, October 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * We thought the same thing about the invest that became Octave, and it never even reached hurricane strength. Just something to keep in mind. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:01, October 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one is in a better environment and have more time.Even the conservative Euro brings it to cat 2.Allanjeffs 05:10, October 19, 2013 (UTC)

I hope this one intensifies quickly so we can finally get something good to watch, but, well, this is 2013. Just about every other storm this year sucked, wouldn't be surprised if this one gets cursed to die too. Atlantic remains silent, it has a slight chance of making something big in the Western Caribbean in the next two weeks, but none of the reliable models predict anything will form by the next week in ATL. Ryan1000 12:09, October 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, even though the invest continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, conditions are now conductive for a tropical depression to form in the coming days. Invest 96E now has a 60% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours and an 80% chance in the next five days. It looks like Mother Nature will be nice enough for Raymond to continue his very powerful hurricane streak. Who knows? Maybe this could repeat itself if Raymond is excited enough to intensify and Mother Nature gives him the right conditions! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:54, October 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's up to 80% (48 hours) and 90% (5 days). C'mon invest, become Raymond, and then become a major hurricane! I still think this will peak at C1 or even C2 intensity, but hopefully Raymond will be excited enough to strengthen and Mother Nature will give him the right conditions for explosion to a major! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 18:39, October 19, 2013 (UTC)

Wind shear is super low right now. COME ON RAYMOND AND YA RAVIN RABBIDS WOOOOOO! C4 Raymond woo! (Mjo pulse at 8 right now. If Raymond can do it, so can Lorenzo wooooo!) TWERK TEAM! 19:00, October 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Conditions are favorable and while we may be seeing a major hurricane (or not) we have to keep in mind that the current forecasts have this striking land.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:46, October 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Models are now agreeing in a landfall towards Mexico might become a cat 1 or 2 but not much stronger if it makes landfall  btw renumber.EP, 17, 2013102000,, BEST, 0, 138N, 1003W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SEVENTEEN, M,Allanjeffs 00:52, October 20, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seventeen
Not up on NHC yet, but it has been renumbered according to Allan, and it is now a depression. Now that it looks more likely to make landfall, the people in Mexico need to prepare, as it could get as strong as major hurricane status before landfall. I'm still thinking we will see a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, but there might be an outside shot at major status. Hopefully (future) Raymond won't be too bad for the folks there if it makes landfall. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:35, October 20, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Raymond
Was upgraded to a TS at 2 am and is now at 45 kts/1000 mbar. Forecast peak is 75 kts, but after what happened with Narda, I'm not going to hold my breath. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:24, October 20, 2013 (UTC)

Raymond is in much better conditions than Narda ever was,An eye is developing so its intensifying faster than anticipate might become a cat 3 or 4 Andrew will be happy I see.Allanjeffs 18:15, October 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * 60 kts and 994 mbar now, with the forecast peak raised to 85 kts. I'm starting to get a bad feeling about this one. While the center of Raymond currently isn't forecast to cross the coast, it's expected to stall just offshore of Guerrero, which was severely impacted by Manuel last month. Hopefully it won't be too bad for them. Whenever we don't get failure, we get danger. 'Tis the story of 2013 -_- --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:28, October 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * This doesn't look good
 * leeboy100 (talk) 22:16, October 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Might become 957 mb! 989mb Sonia might be coming too with 992mb Lorenzo, MY GOD WHAT IS GOING ON?!? :O  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 23:28, October 20, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Raymond
This is turning really ugly Mexico better watch out as cat 2,3 or even 4 might make landfall in its coast.Allanjeffs 23:58, October 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * With Raymond stronger is now more probable for him to make landfall a stronger system will move more North a weaker system more left.Allanjeffs 23:55, October 20, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, from which model(s) are you getting that forecast calling for a future Sonia and Lorenzo? Anyway, Raymond is now at 65 kts and 989 mbar, making it the eighth hurricane of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:00, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Some model I found on Storm2k. "GFS" and "ECMWF" INNIT MAN!  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 00:01, October 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * How far out? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:06, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * A hurricane watch/tropical storm warning is in effect for Acapulco to Lazaro Cardenas. Luckily, Raymond should turn away from land and reach 85 knots. What did I tell you? I knew Raymond would become a hurricane because he is cursed into becoming a Category 4! If it turns away from Mexico, we can root for a strong system, and I say will reach a peak intensity of 125 knots! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:08, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * MANUEL II :O  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 00:17, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * More like Carlotta (2012) 2.0. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:21, October 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Surprisingly enough, the GFS (which is typically the more bullish of the two global models) wants to kill this thing as it moves northwest slowly. The Euro is much more aggressive with Raymond and they make it a 952 mbar storm in several days, but by then heading well out to sea. Even though Raymond is not expected to make landfall, coastal areas between Acapulco and Zihuatenejo could see anywhere from 5 inches of rain, to as high as 18 inches in isolated areas. So coastal flooding will be a concern with Raymond given it's slow movement near the southern Mexico coastline, regardless if it moves ashore. Ryan1000 01:08, October 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, I thought we were going to end 2013 with no majors in the whole hemisphere, but with Raymond's presentation right now, I'd not be shocked if he was a major hurricane as early as midday Monday. Check out the VERY impressive eye developing (well, impressive for its current barely-a-hurricane stats) October sure seems to be an odd month! TheMagnificentEquusStorm (talk) 02:43, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

Category 2 strength at 85 kts/975 mbar per the 8pm advisory, and it's now forecast to become the first major hurricane of the season within 12 hours from now, peaking at 110 kts before weakening. 24 hours of existence and while it's still got 10 kts to go to topple Henriette as the season's windspeed champion, its slightly lower pressure makes it the season's most intense storm nonetheless. A 25-kt increase in winds over the course of 6 hours is amazing for any storm, but I can't recall it ever being pulled off by a WHEM storm as young as Raymond. In the latest NHC discussion, Brown described the rate of Raymond's intensification as "astounding." I have to say that I agree with him. Raymond seems to be ignoring the fact that it's 2013 and has decided to act like a 2011 storm instead. I don't know what all this is a testament to more: Raymond's rapid intensification, or the season's pathetic nature up until this point. Mexico better watch out, things could get ugly if Raymond makes landfall. "We Are Young" certainly seems to be Raymond's anthem for the evening: "Tonight, we are young, so we'll set the world on fire so we'll burn brighter than the sun..." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:59, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Raymond wants to continue the curse of cat 4.The past 2 Raymonds had become cat 4 and the strongest system of their seasons This curse might continue as well. I believe I mention this before in  here or  in wunderground.I am also hoping we at least get Lorenzo of 90L.Allanjeffs 06:35, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Raymond
So this happened. 120/955 at 2am PDT advisory, our first major of the season in the East Pacific. TheMagnificentEquusStorm (talk) 08:59, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

This was never the way I expected our season's first major hurricane. Its winds are already at 105 knots (195 km/h), and the fact it is stalling south of Mexico could cause even more intensification. A hurricane warning is now in effect for Tecpan de Galena to Lazaro Cardenas. As Mexico bears down, I just want to mention how in the world I knew Raymond's intensification was going to happen. With this update, all three EPAC storms named "Raymond" have become majors, and it is not out of the blue that Raymond could become a Category 4 hurricane for the third time out of three usages. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:30, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yay! The curse is broken! 2nd latest first major for the East Pacific (behind the 1959 Mexico Hurricane), or the latest if you count CPac. Keep on going Raymond! (but avoid Mexico, of course...)  Ryan1000 12:16, October 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * YES!!! We finally have a MAJOR HURRICANE! Congratulations, Raymond! I didn't expect you to get this strong! Now let's see if you can make it to Category 4 status. (and try to avoid Mexico...) <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 14:31, October 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Raymond is bringing heavy rain to southern Mexico, and Manuel's damage, per Dr. Masters latest post, is up to 4.2 billion dollars, along with 169 dead or missing people. That's the 3rd costliest disaster in Mexico's history, behind Karl in 2010 and Wilma in 2005. My chances on Manuel now go up to 90%, even though Mexico's track record for retirement is really bad...I think it should happen nonetheless. Ryan1000 15:09, October 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * USHER, YEA MAN! Finally Hurricane Usher is a Cat 3!! Woo hoo!! :D YES YES MAJOR PARTY PLANNING NEEDED! WOOT!!! But the thing is though, will he be like Jova of 2011?! AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHH!!!! Might be a C4 though. Gonna be 125mph. It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 15:19, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * FINALLY! WE HAVE A MAJOR!!!! :D :D :D
 * That is not in TYPHOONN LAND!! WOOT!  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 17:19, October 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow, never thought this would happen this year. Looks like it has reached peak intensity though. Kiewii! 19:50, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

And just as I type that up, the wind speed has increased to 110 kt, which presumably will be its peak intensity. I will, however, be surprised if it gets to Cat 4 Kiewii! 20:11, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope Raymond becomes a Category 4, if it avoids Mexico. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 21:49, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Currently, Raymond's pressure is at 949 mbar (28.02 inHg). I would like to mention that even if Raymond never becomes a Category 4, it already has two major similarities with his two predecessors - all three storms became major hurricanes and were the strongest storms of their seasons. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:56, October 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down slightly to 105 kt/954 mbar. It looks like we won't be getting a Category 4 out of Raymond, but I'm just glad the WHEM finally produced a major. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:41, October 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I mention he was the our last chance of getting a major looks like it was.The Epac should see another storm or two before it shuts down for good.At least we end with one but is pitful with 17 name storms and only 1 major.Fail. (post left by Allan)


 * Well, Raymond might be saying his farewell to us. He has fallen to 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h)/959 mbar (hPa; 28.32 inHg). Unless he pulls a Dean or Felix '07, this is his show. And Allan, the EPAC has actually produced one major hurricane out of 19 named storms (don't forget Pewa or Unala!). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:38, October 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I actually don`t count the Cpac with the Epac for they they are different seasons so I count them separately.Allanjeffs 12:42, October 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * The CPac and EPac use different naming lists and different numbers for depressions, but the WMO and NOAA don't call it "seperate from the EPac", because storms rarely form in the CPac outside of El Nino (and some neutral) seasons. NHC considers them seperate, though other agencies merge them. Ryan1000 12:48, October 22, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Raymond (2nd time)
Down to 90 kt, whats amazing is that it is expected to remain a hurricane for the next 5 days... Kiewii! 15:35, October 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Still soaking southern Mexico, but at least the worst is offshore. Ryan1000 16:36, October 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 65 kt per recon but some models are showing some hints of reintensification in a few days time... Kiewii! 20:58, October 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like it'll peak as a Category 3. The NHC predicts it to weaken very slightly to a 70 mph strong tropical storm, and remain at that intensity for the rest of the forecast period!! That's pretty awesome, and Raymond will probably restrengthen to a hurricane before it goes away for good. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:45, October 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I doubt it will,its dying from here and on as conditions are no longer favorable.Allanjeffs 04:02, October 23, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Raymond (2nd time)
Now down to a tropical storm at 50 kt. NHC now restrengthening Raymond in a few days to around 60 kt Kiewii! 14:53, October 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, Raymond got shredded alive. Now there's almost no convection near the center. Wouldn't be surprised if it dies tomorrow or the day after. Lorenzo should be dead soon too. Ryan1000 17:12, October 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * I also wouldn't be surprised if Raymond dies during the next couple days. I was expecting it to restrengthen into a hurricane, but...I guess not, <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:30, October 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * It actually could stay alive for several days before dying, but it won't restrengthen that much. Ryan1000 20:38, October 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Could go back to cane status. May not though. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:16, October 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Forecast to be a hurricane again in several days. I think we're looking at an Irwin or Boris-like storm with Raymond. This could stick around for quite a long time. Although, the impacts are probably all said and done by now. Ryan1000 14:48, October 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Raymond is now at 60 mph, and predicted to restrengthen to hurricane status. It could stick around for quite a long time, and hopefully he will put on a good show in his 2nd life. GO RAYMOND!!!! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:38, October 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Everybody Loves Raymond, right? C1 HERE WE GO!!!  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 01:03, October 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Raymond should become a hurricane again, as the NHC expects. Irwin 2.0? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:23, October 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * No he will not,he is down to 50 and Ascat show he should be more weaker than the NHC is putting him.Allanjeffs 03:44, October 26, 2013 (UTC)

(←)Well, in ~48 hours, the NHC still forecast Raymond to reach 65 knots (75 mph) once more. I would give a 50 percent chance that will happen. Either way, degeneration is expected in 120 hours, and Raymond's pressure is at 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:28, October 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Raymond seems to have adjusted to the 2013 atmosphere after teleporting from 2011 :P Raymond has been in no hurry to restrengthen, so I'm going to treat the forecast for it to regain hurricane strength with skepticism, but I still gotta tip my hat to this one, even if it's not hats off quite yet. After a plague of weak storms across the Western Hemisphere, we somehow got a last-minute major in the EPAC, keeping a pretty cool curse intact (the one of each Raymond being a major and the strongest storm of its respective season (though for 1983, it shares the throne with Kiko), as mentioned by Andrew above) and possibly setting a neat record for latest first major of an EPAC season (I won't count the 1959 Mexico hurricane because reliable EPAC records only go back to 1966, I think; also, if one wants to include the CPAC, then Dot and Patsy formed earlier in the 1959 season). Raymond is my second-favorite storm of 2013 so far, right behind Lekima. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:43, October 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * I said the same yesterday in wunderground now Raymound is feeling the effects of 2013 anyways the Atlantic may get a surprise too as all the major models are forecasting two storms in the Caribbean one in the Eastern and another in the western both becoming strong ts to hurricanes.Allanjeffs 21:41, October 26, 2013 (UTC)

(←)Hmm, Raymond has restrengthened to 65 mph, so it looks like it isn't really feeling the effects of 2013 anymore. This might become a hurricane again, probably tomorrow. C'mon, Raymond! You can do it! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 03:17, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Didn't see that coming. Go, Raymond, go! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:21, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Hopefully Raymond can. You can pull it off Raymond! Simlover123 <font color="White">   04:13, October 27, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Raymond (3rd time)
Dylan and Allan, how are your intial thoughts of writing off Raymond going? Beneath a convective canopy in Raymond's convection, microwave imagery shows an eye, and a CDO feature has recently developed. Based on a blend of various Dvorak estimates, Raymond winds have been re-upgraded to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) and its pressure has fallen again to 989 mbar (hPa; 29.21 inHg). In fact, in the next 12 to 24 hours, Raymond still has time to reach 75 knots (85 mph), as the NHC forecasts, before shear kills it for good. In the next few days, the ECMWF and GFS both take Raymond northwards as a ridge weakens. And to the ones who wrote off Raymond - Mother Nature can pull lots of good tricks. Like Humberto, Irwin, and Nadine, Raymond pulled himself back together. Never write off a system until it is completely dead (unless it is a Jerry (2007) like storm). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:31, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not bad, Raymond is holding on nicely. However, NHC expects shear to rapidly increase about Tuesday and it could die out by Thursday. Well, he's really nice to track, though I feel sorry for the 2 people that died in Mexico from the storm. Ryan1000 14:10, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, those deaths are the only bad part of Raymond. Andrew, you're right about me underestimating Raymond, it's as though it saw my and Allan's comments and decided to flip us off lol. Raymond is up to 75 kts/982 mbar and is now forecast to regain Category 2 status. It's nowhere near land this time, so let's grab the popcorn and soda, ladies and gentlemen! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:51, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * P.S.: I think it's a stretch to say that Humberto or Irwin pulled themselves back together on the level of Nadine. Nadine reached its peak intensity during its second reign at hurricane status, near the end of its life. Neither Humberto nor Irwin exceeded 40 kts during their respective second winds (Humberto after becoming post-tropical and regenerating, and Irwin after weakening for a tropical depression for just under a day). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:57, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nadine lasted for more than 20 days, an EPac version of that would be something like Boris of 1984, but Irwin in 2011 also lasted a while. Anyways... Ryan1000 15:03, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Don't forget the refreshment. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:57, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Unbelievable. Raymond continues to rise. The eye cleared out on visible imagery, and even in the past hour, the hurricane has gained organization. As a result, the NHC has raised Raymond's intensity to 85 knots (100 mph, 160 km/h)/975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg). We have a Category 2 once more! However, shear should affect the hurricane in ~12 hours. Consequently, I will be suprised if Raymond becomes a major hurricane again. Right now, I think Raymond is feeling a 2012 atmosphere. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:15, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * I can't decide if I want our first Sonia in 30 years (which would also be our first EPAC 'S' storm since Sergio '06) or if I want Raymond to be an unfittingly awesome capstone for what has otherwise been a pathetic season bar Manuel and maybe Alvin, Barbara, Erick, Flossie or Henriette. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:37, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Raymond has really jumped the gun here. I was expecting it to restrengthen to a hurricane, but a Category 2?! This storm is pulling tricks on us. I don't think it will restrengthen to a major, since strong shear is about to attack the system tomorrow. I also hope we will get our first Sonia in 30 years, and maybe even get a Tico before the season shuts down for good. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:57, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow, I never thought Raymond would get to category 2 again. He even has an outside shot of being a major again, but I personally doubt that'll happen given the fact shear will rise in the next few days. Ryan1000 00:25, October 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * You may say in the next couple of hours,but I am really surprise he did reach cat 2.190.11.239.65 01:40, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Mexico
Well, as Raymond dies out, a new AOI rises. As it moves west-northwestward, it could possibly develop. It currently has a 20% chance of developing in the next five days. If our 20th tropical storm (18th if the CPAC is excluded) forms from this AOI, 2013 will become the second EPAC season since 1994 (after 2009) to produce 20 tropical storms, and the first season since 2006 to reach the 'S' name. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:30, October 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * This would be Sonia if it's named, first time since 1983, which ran the table at it's time. Ryan1000 14:20, October 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope this AOI becomes Sonia. The EPac has been really active this year! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 03:20, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope so too. Not sure how strong it will get, but after Raymond, I won't be so bad if it ends up peaking where Narda and Octave did, though hopefully it will get stronger than Priscilla. We are currently at an average of 62.6 kts per storm (60.8 kts per storm if you include Pewa and Unala); we need either a 115-kt Category 4 (if you count the CPAC as part of the EPAC) or a 78-kt Category 1 (if you count the CPAC and EPAC as entirely separate basins) to bring that average up to 63.5 kts per storm, which rounds up to 64 kts, or minimal hurricane strength. It pretty much goes without saying that the EPAC is in a much better shape than the Atlantic, which is currently averaging a paltry 52.9 kts per storm. To bring that average up to 63.5+ kts, the Atlantic would need the next storm to become a 191-kt (220 mph) Category 5, which ain't happening, or an average of 127 kts, 106 kts, 96 kts, 89 kts, 85 kts, or 82 kts from the next 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 storms, respectively. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:45, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Its been active in NS but it has been inactive with MH so the ACE is terrible I believe is average to below average which is a shame for all the name storms there has been Sonia will probably peak at 45 to 65 mph storm.Allanjeffs 03:54, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah the ACE still sucks, regardless of how many storms we've had, too few of them were long-lasting, let alone strong, and ACE is far below normal in both the EPac and the Atlantic.  I expect this to become Sonia, but not a very strong storm, neither do I see it affecting land. Ryan1000 14:12, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * This AOI, slowly coming together, now has a 30% chance of developing in the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:56, October 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here comes Sonia! I think it will peak as a moderate TS (around 50-60 mph). <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:00, October 27, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie Comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.
 * Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme".

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: Isaac829 E-Mail  20:12, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * All - 0% - None of them are worth retiring.

Isaac, are you sure Manuel is not worth retiring? $925 million (2013 USD) and 84 deaths sounds like a candidate to me, even if Mexico never retires names. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:07, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Manuel actually has a chance of retirement. The deaths and damage toll above, and also its flooding, make it a reasonable candidate for retirement. But if Mexico didn't retire Agatha, then Manuel could very well stay. EPac retirements can be completely random at times, and Mexico rarely retires names. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:42, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Steven, Agatha was more Guatemala's problem than Mexico's. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:31, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, I just couldn't think of any better examples. :P What about Paul (1982) or Tico (1983)? Both of these hurricanes mainly affected Mexico and killed more than 100 people, but they weren't retired. Although most of Paul's deaths were in Guatemala and El Salvador when it devastated the countries as a tropical depression, it struck Mexico at peak intensity. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:36, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Paul was likely snubbed because most of the impact occurred as a tropical depression. I am not sure why Tico did not go. Liza '76 is a good example of a storm that should have been retired. ~1,000 fatalities = out. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:58, October 11, 2013 (UTC)

ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. More to come... Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin? #No. WHAT A REAL CHIPMUNK lol
 * Barbara? #No.
 * Cosme #No.
 * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO.
 * Erick? #No.
 * flossie? Nah man
 * gill? Lazy fishy
 * HENRIETTE? Nah didn't do anything to Honolulu
 * pewa? Lol, no
 * uhnala? Uh, nala no.
 * Ivo? NAH MAN YOU FISH om nom nom
 * Juliette? TBA- you'd better please Romeo.


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions:

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville!
 * 2) Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards.
 * 3) Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name.
 * 4) Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances.
 * 5) Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * 6) Flossie - 1% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end.
 * 7) Gil - 0% - It did nothing special.
 * 8) Henriette - 0% - Henriette may have broken our Category 1 streak, but it is staying.
 * 9) Pewa - 0% - Similar to Unala, Tropical Depression Three-C, and Henriette, Pewa was a very interesting storm meteorologically, but impactwise, it should be long forgotten.
 * 10) Unala - 0% - Unala was quite an interesting storm meteorologically. However, it became Pewa's lunch before doing anything.
 * 11) Ivo - 0.01% - If previous serious storms to affect the Southwestern U.S. (Ignacio and Nora '97, Kathleen '76, Joanne '72, etc.) were not retired, Ivo should not.
 * 12) Juliette - 0.01% - The lack of major impact from Juliette essentially means its staying.
 * 13) Kiko - 0% - Despite how close it came to hurricane intensity, Kiko was a fail.
 * 14) Lorena - 0.01% - See Juliette's section.
 * 15) Manuel - 90% - This turned out to be quite the disaster in the end, coming back from the dead full force as a hurricane. $4.2 billion (2013 USD)  169 fatalities and all that deadly flash flooding makes it a near guaranteed retiree. If this storm hit the U.S., we would be looking at a storm with a 95 to 99 percent chance of retirement. Not even Ismael or Tico killed as many as Ismael. As much as I want Manuel to leave, keep in mind Karl caused $5.6 billion (2010 USD), but did not leave.
 * 16) Narda - 0% - A complete fail.
 * 17) Octave - 0.01% - See Juliette and Lorena's section.
 * 18) Priscilla - 0% - An even worse fail than Narda.
 * 19) Raymond - TBA - Still Active

Here's my predictions!

<font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Hell no.
 * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it.
 * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough.
 * Dalila - 0% - Nope.
 * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - Fishie.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.
 * Pewa - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Unala - 0% - Didn't do nothin'. Maybe cause Pewa ate this storm up for dinner. lol
 * Ivo - 0.5% - Not much impact, but it did bring a little moisture to my house as a remnant low.
 * Juliette - 0.1% - Romeo is mad at this failure. It just brought rain to Baja and nothing more.
 * Kiko - 0% - No land impacts.
 * Lorena - 0% - Another failure.
 * Manuel - 60% - Caused lots and lots of flooding in Mexico and a bunch of deaths, and I want it to be retired. But since Mexico rarely retires names, there is an outside shot that it will stay.
 * Narda - 0% - And, we have yet another epic fail...
 * Octave - 0.5% - Brought rain to Baja, but it won't be retired.
 * Priscilla - 0% -  EPIC FAILURE!!! It has to be said.
 * Raymond - ? - Still active

STO12's Predictions:
 * ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here.
 * BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement.
 * COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme.
 * DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement.
 * ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement.
 * FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy.
 * GIL: 0% Just another addition to our streak of cat 1's, far from land too.
 * HENRIETTE: 0% Was certainly impressive to see it do what it did. But no retirement is to be arranged. Hopefully Henriette will impress us just as much in 2019.
 * PEWA: 0% A rare hurricane, but no retirement expected.
 * UNALA: 0% A rare weak storm that caused no impact to land.
 * IVO: 5% A weak tropical storm with a lot of moisture. No large impact.

<font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:05, August 26, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan Grand Speaks:

East Pacific: Central Pacific: Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again?
 * Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names...
 * Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah.
 * Dalila - 1% - See Cosme.
 * Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe.
 * Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish.
 * Henriette - 0% - Became a cat. 2, but no impacts on land.
 * Ivo - 1% - No impacts on land while tropical, but the remnants did cause some impact in Arizona.
 * Juliette - 3% - Some impact to Baja, but not enough to retire.
 * Kiko - 0% - Impressed us with that little stint of intensification, but you know the drill. No impacts, no retirement.
 * Lorena - 1% - Flooded southern Baja a little, but definitely not enough to retire.
 * Manuel - 90% - Quite the flooding in Acapulco, even more in Sinaloa. As many as 169 deaths, and possibly over 4 billion dollars in damage, I think this could easily be retired...but Mexico is pretty poor on nominating.
 * Narda - 0% - More like nada.
 * Octave - 10% - Probably not too severe.
 * Priscilla - 0% - I've heard of failures before, but this? Seriously?
 * Raymond - ?? - Might flood southern Mexico a bit, but should remain mostly offshore.
 * Pewa - 0% - Persisted longer than I thought, but nontheless, it stayed at sea.
 * Unala - 0% - Pewa ate her up.

I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. <font face="trebuchet MS">Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin: 0% fish
 * Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough
 * Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves
 * Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all.
 * Erick 0% nop another fish
 * Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur
 * Gil 0% fa-fa-fai-fai-fail,fail fail
 * Henriette:0% No my dear you are staying with the other 7 names that have been use,better luck next time.
 * Ivo 0% and one of the worst and scariest name of the list was an EPIC FAIL.
 * Juliette. 1% for the person dead but I should give her a 0% another fail
 * Kiko 0% It challenge the NHC in intensity but nothing more.He is staying
 * Lorena 1% And the failings in this basin continues
 * Manuel.85% I would put it at 95%if it was another country but knowing Mexico he might very well stay after what happen with Karl and Alex was unexcusable.If this stay I would be sad but no surprise nor shock.The rain it left over Guerrero are discribe as the worst ever record in the area.He needs to be gone,Its a toss up right now because of Mexico lack of retirements.Also this cause 4.5billion less than Karl but if its retire it might mean that Mexico care more of deaths than damage we will see soon.
 * Narda: 0% such a dissappointment.
 * Octave:0% Fail
 * Priscila:0 Another fail in here
 * Raymound;???


 * CPAC
 * Pewa 0%
 * Unala 0%
 * Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:36, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Barbara 3% aint gonna happen
 * 2) Erick 1% Should go, but no
 * 3) Flossie 20% Actually, it has a better chance than some of you think. Hawaii requested Daniel 06 and Kenneth 05 after r all.

And they were still not retire,if Agatha that kill hundreds didn`t go there is no excuse for Flossie to leave.Allanjeffs 16:33, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Actually, Allan, that is not exactly true. The EPAC is the basin the WMO randomly retires names from. Alma was retired, but not Agatha. They retired Ismael, but not Norbert or Jimena. They retired Kenna, but not Liza, Madeline, or Lane. They retired Pauline, but not Tara. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:07, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Some retirements from the WMO seem random for EPac, but Flossie's chances of retirement are still slim. Just because some random names like Fefa of 1991 were retired doesn't mean Flossie will be. I have doubts it will happen, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 21:08, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alma was retire because it caused heavy damage in Nicaragua,Costa Rica and my country (Honduras) damage was considerable in two of the three.Ismael,Kenna and Pauline all have make a lot of damage,and the ones you mention shouls have been retire too.I will add Rick the same year as pauline many in Mexico suffer more than him than with Pauline and still was not retire.I believed Fefa was retired because it means something in Hawaiian or other language that means something for them,like what happen with Israel and Adolph.Allanjeffs 12:43, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fefa could've been retired for being a threatening storm for Hawaii, like Hawaii nominated Daniel '06 and Kenneth '05, but unlike Fefa, they were turned down retirement. Alma caused some damage in parts of Central America, but the damage Alma caused was clearly much less than Agatha of 2010 and even Aletta of 1982 (which didn't make landfall) but neither of them were retired while Alma was. Some of them should've been retired, I disagree that Rick was that bad for Mexico although it was immensely powerful, but storms like Tara 1961, and Kathleen/Liza/Madeline of 1976 should've been retired, but they weren't. Tico of 1983 and/or Lidia and Norma of 1981 were also snubs to an extent. Ryan1000 21:52, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Agatha was not retire because it was not nominate by Guatemala,Alma was retire because Honduras and Nicaragua are more loosely  in retirement as they do so more than Guatemala.So they may have ask for the name.Paul should have retired too but I understand it wasn`t because it was only a td when affecting El Salvador.I am not sure if a td that kill thousands or hundreds can be retire after affecting a country can be retire later when they become a ts and don`t affect another landmass.Allanjeffs 01:15, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Alvin has a TCR, and upped to 60 mph.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:20, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * 2nd southernmost TC on record for EPac, behind 1983's Adolph. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara's is out, not much is new. Ryan1000 06:10, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * It was reassessed to be slightly stronger than operationally estimated, though. 70 kts/983 mbar is the new peak intensity, versus the 65 kt/990 mbar operational peak. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * (Erick) was a remanent low six hours earlier and it its pressure was dropped from 984 to 983.Allanjeffs 21:12, August 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nothing's too special about Erick. It did kill two, however. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:47, August 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Cosme is out. Its pressure was lowered slightly from 981 mbar to 980 mbar, it became post-tropical while still at tropical storm strength, and it held on to hurricane status for 6 hours longer than operationally estimated in the ATCF file. Not much else has changed. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:57, September 26, 2013 (UTC)

Replacement names
Okay, I know this may be a little premature for me to start now, especially for an EPAC season, but Manuel has killed 83 people, more than Alma or Kenna ever did. I also understand Manuel primarily affected Mexico, was has a bad track record of retirement. However, neither of those excuses will stop me from starting to making this section.

Here are my top 10 replacements for Manuel:


 * 1) Mario (on the PAGASA naming lists)
 * 2) Maurice
 * 3) Mort (was used in 1997 in the WPAC)
 * 4) Martin (was used in 1997 in the SPAC)
 * 5) Miguel (Spanish version of Michael, which is on the Atlantic List IV)
 * 6) Maximino
 * 7) Mateo
 * 8) Modesto
 * 9) Melchor
 * 10) Macario

Also, here are my top three picks for Flossie, if by some odd chance, Hawaii requests it for retirement:


 * 1) Faith (used in 1947 and 1998 in the WPAC + 1966 in the Atlantic)
 * 2) Flo (was the name of a monster typhoon in the WPAC in 1990)
 * 3) Fauna

If anyone else wants to suggest replacement names for Manuel, Flossie, or any of the other EPAC names this season, please feel free to do so.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:52, September 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Keep in mind that Mexico's most recent fatality snub, Alex '10, killed as many as 73 people, and Manuel has beaten that number. I think that the reason Manuel may get away with it is less because it's Mexico and more because it's EPAC, home to the Aletta '82, Tico '83 and Agatha '10 snubs. I think Mark would be a good name for a hurricane, but maybe not as a replacement for Manuel due to EPAC's focus on Spanish names, so I'll agree with Andrew's choice of Mario, with Mateo being a close second. Francesca could also be a good replacement for Flossie, but then again, it could be deemed too similar to Frances, which was retired from the Atlantic lists after the 2004 season. Faith, as also pointed out by Andrew above, may be better. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:52, September 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Epac that should use only spanish names should change Manuel to the following
 * Mario
 * Marco
 * Marcos
 * Manny (nickname for Manuel)but it they can change Rita with Rina then this one is possible
 * Martin
 * Mauricio
 * Miguel have a good chance imo
 * Milton
 * Mateo which should have been the retirement for Mitch.
 * Allanjeffs 06:24, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Dylan, Francesca was previously used in the EPAC in 1966, 1970, and 1974, but I agree it is a little similar to Frances and therefore not get used. Allan, Marco is already on Atlantic List VI (remember this puny guy?). Marcos could be used, considering Marie, on Pacific List VI, and Maria, on Atlantic List III, are both on the Atlantic/Pacific naming lists right now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:33, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Uh, uh, uh, here they are!           I got these M names from Name Yo Baby. Like any of them?
 * '''Malik
 * '''Mancel
 * '''Maron
 * '''Marques
 * '''Martel
 * '''Marvin
 * '''Michael
 * '''Mikal
 * '''Montel
 * '''Montell
 * Montez
 * Mason
 * Miguel
 * Miguelito
 * Mario

And here are the name replacements for Flossie, should Hawaii kick her out!

'''Fajah Fawn Francelle'''

And now from NameYoBaby!

Anyway, sorry for the tables being extremely long, but in my opinion, the replacement name does not need to be within the same language (Portugese and English = Manuel and Flossie.) Like for example, Ivan (Russian) -> Igor (Russian) -> Ian (English), Hugo (English) -> Humberto (Italian), Rita (English) -> Rina (Hindu), Iris (English) -> Ingrid (Swedish). HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 19:32, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Yes, replacement names do not need to be in the same origin as their predesscor (e.g. Luis - Lorenzo). Anything not related to Michael/Matthew/Mitch/Marco/Marty/Max would be fine for Manuel, and anything not related to Fefa/Felicia/Fernanda/Fran/Frances/Flora/Florence/Fiona/Fifi would be fine for Flossie. I would prefer a Spanish name for Manuel, but the WMO has proven to chose almost anything for a retiree's replacement. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:45, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Geez, these tables are sooo long. But anyway, here are my top 10 replacements:

Manuel
 * 1) Mateo
 * 2) Mario
 * 3) Marcos
 * 4) Maurice
 * 5) Miguel
 * 6) Martin
 * 7) Melchor
 * 8) Modesto
 * 9) Marcel
 * 10) Matthias

I don't think Flossie will be retired, but here are my top 5 replacements for Flossie:

Flossie
 * 1) Flora
 * 2) Fatima
 * 3) Fallon
 * 4) Francine
 * 5) Flavia

<font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:08, September 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'm not expecting Flossie to be retired, but if it is by some random chance, I'd replace it with Flora. And it's not premature to begin this now Andrew, Manuel has a pretty decent chance of retirement, and even if it's only one name, it's enough to discuss replacement names for it (like Isaac of last year in ATL). I'd pick Mateo for Manuel, knowing it's a Spanish name and a pretty popular one. And Dylan, don't forget Tara 1961 and Liza 1976 snubs on Mexico's behalf. :( Their retirement track record really is poor. Ryan1000 01:12, September 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree that Tara and Liza should have been retired, but I only mentioned names from the current naming rotation to stick on the safe side, since the only retired names are from 1982 (Iwa) onwards. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:55, September 24, 2013 (UTC)