Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season/Archive 1

Retirements at a glance
I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:


 * 1) Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
 * 2) Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
 * 3) Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
 * 4) Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.
 * 5) Eugene - 1% - Eugene defied the odds and became a major hurricane, albeit for a short timeframe. There was some heavy surf in Baja California and Southern California, and this caused hundreds of rescues. Fortunately, there were no fatalities reported, and damage should be minor at most.
 * 6) Fernanda - ~0% - Fernanda became a powerful major hurricane and the strongest of the year so far. Moreover, it managed to survive into the CPAC. However, the only impact from this hurricane whatsoever was some surf in Hawaii, and that was likely not memorable for them.
 * 7) Greg - 0% - Greg, despite not becoming hurricane, lasted much longer than I expected and even managed to survive into the CPAC. However, with no land effects, it will most likely be staying (unless some Diary of a Wimpy Kid fanatic requests that the WMO remove this name).
 * 8) Hilary - 1% - Impactwise, it does not appear that Hilary was significant for Mexico or anywhere else, albeit moving parallel to the former's coastline. Although I have added a grace percentage to account for the (unlikely) possibility that this name will be retired due to the connotation with Secretary Clinton, I would like to note that the names of other prominent politicians of the countries surrounding the EPAC (e.g. Enrique) have been on these naming lists since their inception back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and were not removed because they took power.
 * 9) Irwin - 0% - Irwin became decently strong in spite of its proximity to Hilary and lasted for a while as well. However, it will go down in history as just another harmless hurricane in the EPAC.
 * 10) Jova - ~0% - To be honest, if Jova had not formed from Franklin's remnants, I would not have even mentioned this system. Sure, it passed near Socorro Island, but absolutely no impact was reported whatsoever there or elsewhere.
 * 11) Kenneth - 0% - Well, what a stunt devil Kenneth was! Category 4 intensity was definitely beyond what the forecasts were calling for! Luckily, there is not much else to talk about regarding this hurricane. See you again in six years!

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 02:20, August 29, 2017 (UTC))

Retirements from Steve
Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.
 * EPac: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all Eastern Pacific storms.
 * CPac: Same as above, except for Central Pacific storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Possibly Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly.

EPac=
 * Adrian : ~0% , F - Fun fact: This was once forecast to be a formidable hurricane. An epic disgraceful fail, but saved from getting the "Z" classifications because it was the earliest named EPac storm ever.
 * Beatriz : 7.5% , Z - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
 * Calvin : 0.1% , Z - Same affected areas as Beatriz but was less damaging and no deaths occurred. Retirement's out of the question.
 * Dora : 0.00001% , B - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Exceeded expectations in terms of intensity and was upgraded to a C2 in post-analysis.
 * Eugene : ~0% , A- - Fishspinner that barely made major hurricane status, but tried its best.
 * Fernanda : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#03B">A - An amazing hurricane that got pretty strong and lasted 10 days. The grade is prevented from being "A+" or higher due to the fact that it had potential for C5 strength, but failed to reach it due to the ERCs it did.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F00">F - Despite continued forecasts for hurricane intensity, it failed to become one throughout its over a week of existing. Didn't even get into the "strong TS" category but I guess the longevity is a bonus.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#0B3">B - Didn't become a major despite predictions to do so, although it was somewhat resilient in the end, thus improving the grade from what it otherwise would have been. The name conflicts with 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. But Hillary is not the current president. As a result, the chances that it will receive the "Israel, Adolph, Isis" treatment are very small, almost nil. "Don" in the Atlantic has a much higher chance (20%) to receive that treatment because of Donald Trump, who is the current president.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#068">A- - Although weaker than Hilary, it was amazingly resilient.
 * <font color="#0CF">Jova : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞)  - What a joke.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Kenneth : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#00A">A++  - Fishspinner that exceeded every NHC prediction, so this gets a fantastic grade. Also, it extended Kenneth's lucky streak of being a C4 every time he was used.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Lidia : <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#F50">D - Flooding in Baja + 20 deaths give this a slight chance. Also gave me some moisture and rain showers.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Max : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#0F0">B- - 2 deaths (unfortunately) but damage totals are unknown. Gets some grading credit for intensifying to a hurricane much to everybody's surprise.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Norma : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#FB0">C- - Thankfully, it spared Baja from most impacts. It still caused minimal damage, but retirement won't happen.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Otis : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#006">A+++(x∞) - From initially forecast to be a complete flop to RI-ing to a C3, this is one of the most awesome storms I've ever seen! Also was a tropical depression for days upon days before it did this RI stunt.
 * <font color="#0CF">Pilar : <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#A00">Z - No deaths and probably minor damages, but could have been quite flooding for the area around Jalisco and Nayarit. This was also a weak fail that gets nothing better than "Z".
 * <font color="#0CF">Ramon : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) - Absolutely pathetic, and that's not saying enough. But it still passed near land, so it has a non-zero retirement chance.
 * <font color="#0CF">Selma : <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#A00">Z - Another weak fail, but doesn't get the lowest grade because it struck El Salvador. Selma has reportedly caused 17 deaths. Considering it struck an area that retired Otto '16 and Alma '08 (the latter of which caused less deaths), Selma could go as well. It also worsened Nate's aftermath. I'm just going to give it a coin toss because EPac retirements have a history of being random.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#0CF">TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



CPac=
 * Nothing to see here. The CPac was absolutely dead for the first time since 2012. I guess creating this tab was a waste of time...don't you think? lol

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#0CF">TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



In summary...= Certainly Retired: None

Likely Retired: None

Possibly Retired: Selma

Probably Not Retired: Beatriz, Lidia, Max

Not Retired: Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, Jova, Kenneth, Norma, Otis, Pilar, Ramon

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-85%
 * "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
 * "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
 * "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Possibly Retired, Likely Retired, and Certainly Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Selma (Possibly Retired):
 * Sophia
 * Samantha
 * Stephanie
 * Sasha
 * Stacy
 * Sylvia
 * Shannon
 * Susan
 * Sierra
 * Sadie

Other Info=
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
 * This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The colors for the 40-45 mph TS and the ≥185 mph C5 are made up and not part of the official color classification. The "65-70 mph TS" color is the same as the "Severe Tropical Storm" color used in basins such as the WPac.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:02, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
I'll do mine right now.

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , 7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#330000">99% , 100% , <font color="0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A  )

(Category colors: <font color="#0CF">TD/PTC, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z ) Undergoing grading.

<p style="font-weight:normal;">50% or more: Italics Ok, here we go: <p style="font-weight:normal;">That's all for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:54, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

(Last updated by: --68.106.0.77 03:14, November 3, 2017 (UTC))

<p style="font-weight:normal;">Formerly: 70.190.5.175

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : 0% - Does get credit for being the earliest EPac storm on record. Multiple forecasts predicted Adrian to become a hurricane, and it didn't even become a 50 mph tropical storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#669">1% - When it comes to retirement, Beatriz doesn't even come close to the snubs. I wouldn't even give this more than a 1% chance of retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Calvin almost fizzled out before landfall, but there was minimal damage. This will be coming back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#889">0.01% - Dora caused some minor damage. Dora didn't impress me, but that's just my opinion.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : 0% - Eugene defied forecasts, and became a major hurricane...barely. I feel like Eugene could've done better. Eugene stayed out in the open waters, so he will be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#889">0.01% - The remnants of Fernanda struck Hawaii, and that doesn't count as much.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : 0% - Failicia 2.0.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : 50% - Hilary was forecast to become a major multiple times, and it never did. However, with political issues, Hilary could be retired this coming spring. It is more likely to happen to Hilary because the EPac is the only one who gives the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment. I think that this and Don could be retired.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : 0% - Out in the ocean. I doubt this will go.

Raindrop's Retirements
Adrian: 0%, grade <font color="#F50">D - Extra credit for becoming the earliest tropical storm in the EPAC proper, minus three letter grades for being dissipated when it was forecast to be a 100 mph storm. Seriously, what was that?

Beatriz: <font color="#889">0.03%, grade <font color="#F00">F - A weak TS that made landfall in Mexico. It will be back in 2023 since Mexico has never retired a storm that has done such little damage. It doesn't get a Z as it still formed relatively early and caused impacts.

Calvin: Whatever the chance of winning the lottery is%, grade <font color="#A00">F- - It formed. It hit land. It died. It did not do much. It failed. It does not get a Z as it caused impacts.

Dora: 0%, grade <font color="#8F0">C+ - Just an average hurricane that formed, strengthened, peaked, weakened, and died. It did look pretty good at peak intensity. It gets a slightly better grade than an average "C" grade because it was the first hurricane of the season. It caused no impacts of significance.

Eugene: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - A fishspinner that did make major status, barely. Therefore it gets an A, barely. Besides the fact that it strengthened more than expected, Eugene followed a rather straightforward path from formation to dissipation, which does not help its grade. No impacts = no retirement.

Fernanda: 0%, grade <font color="#00F">A+ - Fernanda was an amazing and beautiful storm that did not hit land. Its sudden RI to category 4 status was quite cool, and although it did not reach category 5 status, it gets an A plus due to its rather long lifespan and slight resilience when it was weakening.

Greg: 0%, grade <font color="#F80">D+ - Greg ended up underperforming forecasts in the end, but did have some interesting aspects to its life. (Most notably when it went from looking like it was going to strengthen to having an exposed center :P) Greg did briefly hit 60 mph before that, and that along with its long life give it an ok grade.

Hilary: 10%, grade <font color="#0B3">B - Hilary fell short of expectations, just like in the election, by not becoming a major when it was forecasted to for a long time. It still became a decent hurricane, and its brief restrengthening when it was over cold waters brings up its grade quite a bit. It gets a significant but small shot at retirement due to the name's relation to the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Irwin: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - Irwin was originally slow to strengthen, getting named while still having an exposed center. During its pretty long life, Irwin would always find a way to do just a little more than forecasts predicted, by strengthening to 90 mph and then near the end of its life refusing to die. The only time Irwin was not resilient was during its sudden rapid weakening from 90 to 50 mph in under 24 hours. The fact that Irwin was resilient in the end makes up for that. I give Irwin an A- as it was a lot of fun to track and looked quite pretty at times.

Jova: 0%, grade <font color="#600">Z- - An epic fail, didn't even stay at TS strength for 1 day. The only reason it doesn't get the lowest grade is because it was never supposed to be strong in the first place.

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Adrian - 0.05% - that .05% is for Adrian being the earliest forming storm in the Eastern Pacific proper (excl. Central Pacific)
 * Beatriz - 4% - minimal impact, though there were a number of fatalities.
 * Calvin & Dora - 0% - see you both in 2023.
 * Eugene - 1.5% - for being the first major of the season. Will be back in 2023.
 * Fernanda - 2.5% - for being the first Category 4 hurricane of the season; also expected to be back in 2023.
 * Greg & Irwin - 2% - although weaker than Eugene and Fernanda, they were fun to track because of their relatively long lives. Both will be back in 2023 though.
 * Hilary - 3% - If we will only consider its actual impact(s), Hilary will be back in 2023. However, I am not sure if that will happen, given the political situation right now. While it may not get retired, but this may be removed (due to the name being very similary to Hillary Clinton, with the exception of its spelling of course). May become Adolph/Israel/Isis 4.0 (along with Don in the Atlantic).

More to follow.

Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Time to toss in my two cents: Ryan1000 22:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 0% - A rare pre-season storm, in fact the earliest ever in the East Pacific proper (up to 140W), but it didn't affect land, so, see ya in 2023.
 * Beatriz - 3% - Gets credit for its minor effects in Mexico, like in 2011, but it won't be retired.
 * Calvin - 1% - A little less severe than Beatriz.
 * Dora - 1% - It didn't make landfall, but its outer rainbands caused some damage to Mexico.
 * Eugene - 0% - It did cause some swells in southern California that prompted water rescues, but no one was killed and there was no damage, so Mr. Krabs will be back again in 2023.
 * Fernanda - 0% - A powerful and long-lived major hurricane, the second-southernmost on record in the EPac after Olaf in 2015, but she caused no impacts on land, so she'll be back again in 2023.
 * Greg - 0% - Lasted a while, but never became a hurricane, so meh.
 * Hilary - 0% - A failed intensity forecast, just like a failed presidential campaign last year. I personally doubt Hilary (and Don) will be removed from the naming lists just because they so happened to be the names of the two main U.S. presidential candidates in the 2016 election; if Hilary and/or Don are removed for that reason, I won't count them as retirements (due to impact) as neither storm was notable in that regard.
 * Irwin - 0% - Another fishie, but at least it became a hurricane.
 * Jova - 0% - Came out of Franklin in the Atlantic, but it was weak and didn't affect land itself, so no retirement.
 * Kenneth - 0% - Impressive intensity streak, continuing the category 4 incarnations of this name every time it was used in the EPac, but like the others, it didn't hit land, so it won't be retired.
 * Lidia - 3% - Wasn't much different from Beatriz. 7 deaths, some damage, but not enough.
 * Max - 10% - Minor damage in Mexico with two deaths, but it was overshadowed by the earthquake that struck them.
 * Norma - 0% - Became a hurricane but fortunately remained at sea.
 * Otis - 0% - Managed to intensify to a major hurricane after struggling for days as a depression, but still, a fish is a fish.
 * Pilar - 1% - Minor flooding in Mexico.
 * Ramon - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Selma - 5% - Only minor effects in El Salvador as far as I'm aware.


 * Um... what? 2024? You mean 2023 since this list rotates every 6 years. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:39, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Welp, looks like I thought I'm living in next year for some reason...fixed the years, my bad. Also, sorry I hadn't updated this in a while, the Atlantic has been grabbing my attention more often. Ryan1000 19:50, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Rah's predictions!
Ｄ　Ｅ　Ｓ　Ｋ　Ｒ　Ａ　Ａ　Ｔ　Ｉ　Ｎ　Ｇ　Ｏ 00:31, December 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian: 0%, forgettable.
 * 🅱eatriz: 1%, caused a bit of havoc in Mexico but that was just another weather event.
 * Calvin: 0%, drop us some sick beats in 2023, Harris! 🎉
 * Dora: 0%, coming back to explore the East Pacific in 2023.
 * Eugene: 0%, the crab may have reached major hurricane status, but won't be retired.
 * Nanda: 0%, My feeling when you were gonna be a Cat 4 fish
 * Greg: 0%, Cook us something tasty next time, Chef Wallace! That wasn't good enough.
 * Hilary: 10%, maybe for the Clinton memes on Twitter (alongside the Trump memes in the Atlantic) but maybe not, to be honest. 🍊🍊📧📧
 * Irwin: 0%, the crocodile hunter will be coming back. 🐊🐊
 * JoJo: 100% 0%, WE LOVE YOU JOJO! YOU WERE THE BEST STORM EVER, MATE! -sarcasm intensifies-
 * Kenny: 0%, Fun storm to track! Well done Kenny for always being a (friendly, fishie) category 4! Now, can you get to category 5 in 2023? Please stay nice! 😍😍
 * Lyd: 5%, just another weather event in Mexico. Beatriz 2.
 * Max to Ramon: 0% They ain't gettin' retired bruh.
 * Selma Bouvier : 55%, Maybe, maybe not

Stacy's retirement predictions
Well, time to toss in my two cents and predict retirements.
 * Adrian 0%:, Pretty unusual storm that formed in May. I did not follow the NHC advisorys so I did not know that Adrian was forecast to become a Cat 2, I was horrified when I learned about that.


 * Betraz 3%, Just a weather event in Mexico.


 * Calvin 1%, Nah.


 * Dora 0%, The first hurricane's name will be back in 2023.


 * Eugene 0%, Awesome fish spinner that became a major.


 * Fernanda 0%, Good job, Fernanda, good job! You will be back in 2023!


 * Greg 00000.1%, Although never becoming a hurricane, Greg was pretty great in my opinion.


 * Hilary 50%, Well, gosh freakin' darn it Hilary, I wanted you to be a major! This name may get the Aldolph/Israel/Isis treatment.


 * Irwin 0%, the storm that could will be back in 2023.


 * Jova 0%, What a disaster for Twitter and Tumblr!


 * Kenneth 0%, I LOVE YOU KENNY, YOU WERE THE BEST STORM OF THE SEASON, MATE!


 * Lidia 5%, Nah.


 * Max 3%, See Calvin and Lidia.


 * Norma 0%, A hurricane forecast to hit land that turned out to sea is awesome for me.


 * Otis 0%, UHHHH.... WHAT HAPPENED WITH OTIS? 😐


 * Pilar 1% See Max, Calvin and Lidia.


 * Ramon 0% Oh darn you Ramon!


 * Selma 100% A lot of people are going to criticize me for giving this 100%, but I think that due to the higher than Alma death toll, Selma's going.

182's Retirement Predictions
Retirement - Fail%, 0%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%

Grades (Ascending order) - Z-, Z, F-, F, E, D, C, C+, B-, B, B+, A-, A, A+, A++, A++++

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
This is pretty late, but it's been a pretty boring season.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Adrian – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Set one record, but was a complete disgrace and an absolute, utter failure. Thus it still gets an F.
 * Beatriz – grade  D , retirement <font color="#FF00FF">10% . Weak (but that's normal for late May/early June) storm that did a bit of damage and caused seven deaths.
 * Calvin – grade  D , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Non-deadly version of Beatriz.
 * Dora – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Nice symmetric C2. Very minor damage in Mexico and Socorro Island.
 * Eugene – grade  B , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . First major of the season. Took the standard path parallel to Mexico's coast, but kept far away from land.
 * Fernanda – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Low-latitude, long-lived, intense, beautiful, fishspinning C4. Didn't affect Hawaii.
 * Greg – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Refused to become a hurricane despite having an entire week in a decently favorable environment to do so. Disappointing.
 * Eight-E – grade  E . It did the best it could, and didn't steal a name.
 * Hilary – grade  C , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Damnit why u no be major.
 * Irwin – grade  B , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Points for resilience despite nearly getting shredded by Hilary's outflow.
 * Eleven-E – grade  E . Shear = CMI. See Eight-E.
 * Jova – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Name-stealer born from Atlantic Franklin's remnants. Say no more.
 * Kenneth – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Fourth incarnation, fourth C4. Well done, Kenneth.
 * Lidia – grade  C , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Spun up quickly, but didn't become a hurricane. Did some damage in Mexico and killed seven people.
 * Max – grade  C , retirement <font color="#FF00FF">10% . RI'ed to C1, then died over Mexico.
 * Norma – grade  D , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . For something that was forecast to become a major, this disappointed. There again that meant a major hurricane landfall didn't occur, so that's good.
 * Otis – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Surprised us all by becoming a major just as it seemed it was going to fail big time. Went out to sea, so no harm done.
 * Pilar – grade  D , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Meh. Points for effort given that this was really close to land.
 * Ramon – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Lifespan of 18 hours. What a failure.
 * Selma – grade  E , retirement <font color="#0000FF">20% . At least it has the record of being the only EPac named storm to make landfall in El Salvador. Otherwise, pathetic. Unfortunately 17 deaths resulted from this weakling.

Season Summary:

<font color="#ff6060">High (70%-100%): None

<font color="#ff8f20">Moderate (40%-69%): None

<font color="#094">Low (20%-39%): Selma

Best Storms of 2017: Kenneth, Otis

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 11:13, December 25, 2017 (UTC)

Harveys retirement predictions
credit to steve for the colors and 68 for the grades

Retierment colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#707">100% 

grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Cane Harvey (Harvey) 18:22, December 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian - F - <font color=#888>0%  - storm that failed to become a category 2 as expected
 * Beatriz - D - <font color="#11E">2.5%  - slightly deadly storm for mexico.
 * Calvin - D - <font color="#66A">0.00001%  - kek
 * Dora - <font color="#66A">0.00001% - <font color="00CCFF">B-  - turns out the storm happened to be a category 2 so the ratings are going higher.
 * Eugene - <font color="#888">0% - B  - First major of the season causing no damage.
 * Fernanda - A+ - <font color="#55B">0.1%  - very cool fishspinner. missed the s grade because it didnt become a category 5.
 * Greg - - - Refused to become a hurricane despite having an entire week in a decently favorable environment to do so. Disappointing.
 * Eight-E - - -
 * Hilary - - -
 * Irwin - - -
 * Eleven-E - - -
 * Jova - - -
 * Kenneth - - -
 * Lidia - - -
 * Max - - -
 * Norma - - -
 * Otis - - -
 * Pilar - - -
 * Ramon - - -
 * Selma - - -

Retirement predictions from Nut
Yes, I know it's 2018 and it's really late, but I'm bored and I want to get my predictions up and done with for the upcoming spring. Nutfield001 (talk) 20:49, February 8, 2018 (UTC)   Last updated 20:49, February 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 0% - Whilst it may have the earliest storm on record in the EPAC, this was forecast to become a strong C2 hurricane. However, instead he was a 40kt disgraceful failure.
 * Beatriz - 5% - Another 40kt weakling which left minimal damage in and around Mexico. However, this won't warrant retirement.
 * Calvin - 1% - Made landfall near the same area as Beatriz, but it was nothing more than a 40kt weakling that had less of an impact in Mexico than Beatriz. It didn't kill anyone so retirement is very doubtful.
 * Dora - 0.1% - She was more or less a fishspinner, but her outer bands left minimal damage from flooding in Mexico.
 * Eugene - 0% - A fishspinning major which made no threat to land apart from producing waves across the coast of California.
 * Fernanda - 0% - Neared Hawaii as a remnant low, but retirement is out of question since the request will be declined if Hawaii ever requests her retirement. Otherwise it was a C4 fishspinner which failed to reach C5 status due to her ERCs.
 * Greg - 0% - A week-long lasting moderate TS which ended up underperforming the forecasts for hurricane status throughout his entire lifetime.
 * Eight-E - Failed to intensify to TS status throughout its lifetime, but at least it didn't steal a name.
 * Hilary - 2.5% - Failed to reach major hurricane status despite forecasts to do so. In terms of impacts, Hilary will be back in 2023. But due to the negative media attention the storm received, it could receive the 'Adolph/Israel/Isis' treatment this upcoming spring. However, I highly doubt retirement due to the fact that Hilary was just one of the 2016 presidential candidates, and not the current US president.
 * Irwin - 0% - Moderately long-lasting hurricane which was very resilient despite strong wind shear from Hilary.
 * Eleven-E - Was due to intensify, but thanks to strong shear it didn't. I'm not counting it as the worst fail as it wasn't a name stealer.
 * Jova - 0% - Epic fail which stole a name after forming from Franklin's remnants.
 * Kenneth - 0% - An impressive fishspinner which continued that lucky streak of C4 hurricane Kenneths.
 * Lidia - 20% - Flooded parts of Baja California. 20 deaths gives her a shot at retirement, but I doubt retirement.
 * Max - 5% - Strengthened to a strong C1 despite initial forecasts for it to become a moderate TS at landfall. 2 deaths won't convince Mexico to retire Max, considering their bad track record.
 * Norma - 0% - Minimal hurricane which was forecast to hit Baja California but instead remained a fishspinner.
 * Otis - 0% - Initially forecast to become a complete flop, but instead surprised us by a RI session to a major hurricane. Impressive.
 * Pilar - 0.1% - Flooded parts of Mexico, however this was a fail.
 * Ramon - 0% - Epic failure, nothing else needed.
 * Selma - 25% - First EPAC named storm to strike El Salvador which killed 17. This gives Selma the slim possibility of retirement considering how random EPAC retirements are.

Roy's Retirement Predictions
A month away until the 40th Session of the Hurricane Committee, and even though it's late, I'm adding my predictions now. --Roy25 01:13, March 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Adrian (0%) - Credit for becoming the earliest storm on record for the EPac
 * Beatriz (2%) - Did some damage in Mexico and killed 7, but she is staying
 * Calvin - Kenneth (0%) - Did nothing, so they all stay
 * Lidia (5%) - This storm did do some killing, with a total of 20 deaths, 18 directly, but retirement is slim
 * Max (4%) - Killed only 2, but did cause US$10.6 million, but it's also staying
 * Norma - Ramon (0%) - All did nothing, so they all stay
 * Selma (10%) - The highest chance of retirement compared to the previous storms. She was the first to make landfall in El Salvador, and killed 17. But El Salvador doesn't usually retire names, so this name has a slim chance of retirement.

Potentially for Selma
Selma was quite a destructive storm for Central America, causing 17 deaths so far. It struck a similar region to Alma '08, which got retired, but Selma is even more deadly than Alma. The storm also worsened Nate's effects there. It's certainly possible that one of those Central American countries could request the name, so here's my top 10 replacements:


 * Sophia
 * Samantha
 * Stephanie
 * Sasha
 * Stacy
 * Sylvia
 * Shannon
 * Susan
 * Sierra
 * Sadie

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:26, November 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Alma was requested by Costa Rica, which also requested Cesar in 1996 and Otto last year (and could request Nate of this year), but Selma struck El Salvador, which doesn't really have a history of retiring names (since Selma is the first TS to strike the country). I wouldn't say it's impossible, but I wouldn't count on it either. Ryan1000 00:49, December 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * I don't find it likely that Selma will go. 90 deaths occurred in El Salvador in association with 2009's Ida, and it didn't go. Paul, which killed 1696 in total, caused many deaths in El Salvador when it moved as a TD offshore. Yet it stayed. Moreover, EPac retirements are are totally random, so it has a better chance of staying. 182.58.50.178 06:06, December 10, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
Made a table to make it easier to compare changes. So far Beatriz and Calvin's TCRs are out, with Calvin getting a small upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:56, September 7, 2017 (UTC)

This is a nice addition. Will this be done in the Atlantic as well? Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:45, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll probably copy it over when the next Atlantic TCR appears. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:42, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ryan already made a table about that in the Atlantic. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:11, September 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Eugene's TCR is out, and I've decided to link the TCR in the "name" column for ease of access. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:59, October 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jova's TCR is out. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, November 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian and Dora are out. Only change with Adrian is a slightly truncated lifespan, but Dora's been upgraded to a Category 2. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:08, November 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Eleven-E and surprisingly Selma are out. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:25, November 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Kenneth is out ;) Winds up to 135 ;) Ｄ　Ｅ　Ｓ　Ｋ　Ｒ　Ａ　Ａ　Ｔ　Ｉ　Ｎ　Ｇ　Ｏ 00:17, December 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ramon is out...or should I say, came out 2 days ago. Duration changed to October 3-5 from 4-5, but intensity remains the same. Ryan1000 13:35, December 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lidia came out yesterday, winds and duration are the same but her pressure was downed 1 mbar to 986. Ryan1000 20:52, December 21, 2017 (UTC)

NHC is a bit slow on the release dates of some of these...Otis and Irwin came out almost 20 days ago but NHC only just now updated their site with them. Irwin's pressure was downed by 1 mbar, and Otis was found to have been a TS briefly on the 13th, so he didn't spend the first 5 days of his life as a depression after all. Ryan1000 20:59, January 29, 2018 (UTC)

IRWIN KENNY AND OTIS CAME OUT!!! Typing this while on a high in a club Ｄ　Ｅ　Ｓ　Ｋ　Ｒ　Ａ　Ａ　Ｔ　Ｉ　Ｎ　Ｇ　Ｏ 22:17, January 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Kenneth was added not long after I posted my above post, but anyhow, his pressure, like Irwin, was downed by 1 mbar, but nothing else changed. Ryan1000 00:19, January 30, 2018 (UTC)

Fernanda was released. Surprisingly, it was downgraded a smidge. - Garfield (01/30/18)

Pilar was released on the 20th, and she received a slight buff in intensity. Ryan1000 14:16, February 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hilary was released yesterday (well, technically January 21, but wasn't put on the NHC site until just now). She got a slight intensity buff, but still not a major hurricane. Ryan1000 21:38, February 13, 2018 (UTC)

There hasn't been a TCR released for this basin for over a month. I must say, the remaining TCRs must be done a while ago, there is no reason for all, especially TD Eight-E, to not be done yet at this point. -- Roy 25  00:18, March 20, 2018 (UTC)


 * The only storms left are Greg, Eight-E, Max, and Norma. NHC is probably just lazy in updating their website again. (At least they aren't as bad as CPHC which isn't done with 2015.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, March 20, 2018 (UTC)


 * Eight-E is out. Three more left. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:47, March 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Looks like it formed a day earlier. Eight-E's TCR was completed on March 21, eight days ago at the time I'm typing this post. I must say that's pretty late for a depression. -- Roy 25  16:09, March 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Norma's here. She died a little sooner, but overall, nothing too interesting to report. Max and Greg are the only ones left (although the NHC probably has them lying around and is too lazy to release them). Send Help Please (talk) 04:32, April 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Judging from the completion date of Norma's TCR - which was March 12, almost a month ago - I also think that Greg and Max's TCRs are also complete. Probably the NHC is more concerned on the Atlantic's TCR than here since they have been releasing a few Atlantic TCR between the release date of two EPac TCR on their web. -- Roy 25  15:47, April 4, 2018 (UTC)

Greg and Max are out. Max was complete in March 28 and was bump to 80knots Greg stays the same in terms of winds. Looks like td 9 was the second latest to be done. If it wasnt for Max a td would have been the last Tcr. Never could have seen it coming.


 * You mean March 29 for Max. Anyways, looks like the EPac is done for the year for good, also it looks like I made a good second guess on Max's TCR coming out last in the betting pools. Ryan1000 00:41, April 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Guessed it right. Looks like all TCR are out for the EPac. Now the EPac is done for until the Hurricane Committee Session that's starting on Monday, though I doubt any EPac names will be retired. -- Roy 25  01:22, April 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Technically there's Fernanda's stint in the CPac, but that probably isn't significant anyway. Also CPHC isn't done with 2015 so they're not going to finish that any time soon. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:16, April 7, 2018 (UTC)