Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/July

Week 1
Everything gone. Now pretty quiet in the Atlantic. How long can it last? (although I don't see anything like last July which was more like September) CrazyC83 16:16, 1 July 2006 (UTC)


 * I think we'll get Beryl the end of second week (around the 12th to 15th) -24.195.163.207 20:31, 3 July 2006 (UTC)

Pressures are really high over most of the Atlantic right now. That ridge really needs to retreat northward if anything is to develop. --Core des at talk. o.o;; 10:04, 4 July 2006 (UTC)

Are we missing something? Current events says that there's a possibility for a tropical storm to form off Florida, yet there are no invests, and the NHC says nothing about it.WotGoPlunk 17:50, 5 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Reuters picked up a TWO with a possible development in it and made a story out of it, hence the reference on current events. There's nothing unusual about a TWO with possible development mentioned, its unusual that Reuters made a story of it though. Perhaps the media are about as bad as us lot?--Nilfanion (talk) 18:00, 5 July 2006 (UTC)


 * LOL, don't worry. That's just the media machine. They're overhyping the disturbance east of Florida way too much. The NHC never said a storm was forming, or that a tropical depression was imminent. All they said was that conditions could become more favorable. --Hurricanehink ( talk ) 17:58, 5 July 2006 (UTC)

Week 2

 * Ooo, stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf. This could become interesting. →Cycl one1 → 03:53, 8 July 2006 (UTC)

Otherwise, not much happening. Certainly a far cry from this time last year, with Cindy having just hit, Dennis at peak intensity and Emily on the doorstep... CrazyC83 20:28, 8 July 2006 (UTC)
 * It's kinda nice actually... Now I can actually pay attention to the West Pacific for once. For those that don't know, Korea is about to get screwed by Typhoon/TS Ewiniar in about 24 hours. -Winter123 06:35, 9 July 2006 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
I noticed this wave today. (You can hit "Animate" at the top) Amazingly, it looks like it has a surface low already. Here's NHC's take:

"TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH IMPROVING CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS SPREADING S OF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE WAVE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-36W."

This may need to be watched, because the GFS brings it north of the islands and generally towards the east coast. (it shows up near PR on the 13th) -Winter123 19:26, 8 July 2006 (UTC)


 * Cape Verde beginning early? Is the 1996 all over again? CrazyC83 20:29, 8 July 2006 (UTC)


 * It would be interesting if this happened again. Ironically, it would be the "B" storm as well. -Winter123 00:21, 9 July 2006 (UTC)


 * The Gulf Coast wouldn't mind that, but the East Coast, plus the Caribbean, would loathe it...considering what followed later. CrazyC83 01:51, 9 July 2006 (UTC)

What is helping and hindering the development of this system?

CrazyC83 02:07, 9 July 2006 (UTC) "
 * Helping - Low shear, signs of a spin, favorable SST's, no immediate dry air
 * Hindering - Poor organization (still open at all levels), low latitude, dry air around 20°N that could drift south

96L.INVEST
new invest in the atlantic... —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 203.177.165.74 (talk • contribs).
 * It's a nice looking tropical wave. -- WmE 10:15, 9 July 2006 (UTC)
 * It needs to move north and west though. I can't see it developing before it reaches the Caribbean. Once there, shear needs to subside (it is enormous right now). CrazyC83 15:29, 9 July 2006 (UTC)


 * I agree. Storms this early in the season don't usually form that far east (Emily being a major exception). It might get going once past the Windward Islands, like Charley or Dennis. Pobbie Rarr 15:49, 9 July 2006 (UTC)


 * An even greater exception was 1996's Bertha...and took the northern route too (which was unprecedented for July). If shear subsides, look out! If it doesn't, this will never organize. CrazyC83 16:39, 9 July 2006 (UTC)


 * Agreed, if shear lessens, this wave needs to be watched closely, but if the shear persists, and I think so, this invest will be history soon. -- WmE 16:44, 9 July 2006 (UTC)

The GFS takes it north of the islands, but then just kinda kills it near the Bahamas. I think development is possible, but not all that likely. I say the best chance of it surviving all the way to the US would be if it formed a well defined surface low NOW, or at least before the islands. Right now it just doesnt seem to have one, although it looks fairly well organized. I'd say 40% Chance of becoming Beryl. -Winter123 09:03, 10 July 2006 (UTC)


 * Here's the sheer outlook. What do you guys think? →Cycl  one1 → 12:19, 10 July 2006 (UTC)
 * What GFS? I can't find it. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 12:28, 10 July 2006 (UTC)
 * I guess winter was referring to that -- WmE 15:29, 10 July 2006 (UTC)

The GFS is a model, it doesn't do anything at all with it anymore... -Winter123 04:44, 11 July 2006 (UTC)

The NHC is no longer expecting development from 96L, and there's pretty much nothing on the satellite picture. --Core des at talk. o.o;; 09:47, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
 * But what is left of it looks organized. I'll give this a 70% chance of developing somewhere sometime in the future. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 13:10, 12 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Wow, it's a fighter! Convection is increasing and the NHC seems to be more interested in it. -- WmE 15:16, 12 July 2006 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this thing looks better organised than many a tropical storm. Looks like Barbados is in for a soaking. Let's just wait and see what happens as it churns ever westward... Pobbie Rarr 15:25, 12 July 2006 (UTC)


 * ...and now it looks doomed once more. Pobbie Rarr 21:54, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

I say 96L.INVEST is about to dissipate sooner or later because of poor conditions, right now it looks like almost nothing except a band of rain clouds. Alastor Moody (talk) 22:51, 12 July 2006 (UTC)


 * THe only part that could conceivebly develop is the extreme southern part. loop -Winter123 05:55, 13 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Gone. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:26, 14 July 2006 (UTC)

Canadian Hurricane Centre Press Release
The Canadian Hurricane Centre has issued a press release about the warm waters off the coast of Atlantic Canada. See [here]. I couldn't find an official statement on their website though. Blacknail 16:34, 11 July 2006 (UTC)


 * That could be really bad news for that region, especially with the trends pointing to high activity up there. CrazyC83 03:43, 12 July 2006 (UTC)

91L.INVEST (error)
91L has just appeared, no imagery yet. What happened to 97L, 98L, 99L, and 90L? -- RattleMan 07:42, 16 July 2006 (UTC)
 * As invest-happy as NRL's been lately, they probably lasted a few seconds each. ;) All kidding aside, this is probably a numbering error (the last invest in the EPAC was 90E, and 91E appeared a little earlier). Yep, looks like an error, because 91L and 91E have the exact same set of satellite imagery. --Core des at talk. o.o;; 07:47, 16 July 2006 (UTC)


 * OK, it's off NRL now. -- RattleMan 07:52, 16 July 2006 (UTC)

02L.Beryl

 * See Talk:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/Beryl.

98L.INVEST
A new invest in the Bay of Campeche. Chacor 12:29, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Could Chris be on his way? It looks pretty solid. Kinda reminds me of Bret and Gert of last season. It also developed so fast that it wasn't even caught as an Area of Interest! CrazyC83 16:28, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
 * GFS doesn't show development, however if it stays over water, this system will be very interesting to watch. -- WmE 16:39, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look too good to be Chris.. BUT, on the other hand.. NHC says that "UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO" -Tc w d 22:40, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Water T in the Bay is 85.3 F and in the GoM is 85.5 to 86.0 F - the energy is there? Simesa 22:50, 23 July 2006 (UTC)
 * The plane from the previous TWO seems to be canceled, though. —AySz88\^ - ^ 02:52, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
 * It has a few days to develop. It should slowly drift North towards TX. -Winter123 03:43, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
 * This thing hardly even looks like an INVEST anymore. bob rulz 04:00, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Wow, that's just a mess. I'd be really surprised if this became Chris. -- WmE 13:11, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
 * The GFDL (as of 18Z 0723) does not develop it. Chacor 13:56, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

(indent reset) There are a couple models that bring it to TS strength. At any rate, I hope it brings some rains to South Texas, we could use it. --Holderca1 14:28, 24 July 2006 (UTC)

NHC thinks it could develop

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOAA BUOYS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE RECORDED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE.

jj 15:56, 24 July 2006 (UTC)


 * It doesn't look so bad now - colder cloud tops. It was all white with tinges of blue early in the morning today (EST), and now all orange with tinges of red today (shouldn't there be actual ° numbers somewhere?).  I guess it's probably due to the diurnal cycle? —AySz88\^ - ^  16:27, 24 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Wow, I have to admit that it looks really, really good now. I think it could become Chris now, if the convection persits. -- WmE 17:29, 24 July 2006 (UTC)


 * doktorb wordsdeeds 15:44, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
 * THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS NOW CENTERED BETWEEN HOUSTON
 * AND SAN ANTONIO. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS
 * FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
 * EXPECTED

It looks like this is just going to be a rainmaker, looks very disorganized, and too close to land. --Holderca1 13:52, 25 July 2006 (UTC)


 * "AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO

BETWEEN TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE IS GENERATING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM IF THE LOW REMAINS OVER WATER"

doktorb wordsdeeds 13:58, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

98L has been removed and replaced with 96L. -- RattleMan 14:03, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
 * NRL gives me 98L. Chacor 14:21, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
 * I only have 98L as well. --Holderca1 14:25, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

Hmm...I wonder why they did that. I've re-edited the section headers. I've uploaded some pictures showing 96L on NRL just in case. -- RattleMan 14:42, 25 July 2006 (UTC)


 * TCFA issued, that was surprising, but it continued organizing! -- WmE 17:18, 25 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Especially surprising consider the center is over land at the moment. --Holderca1 18:01, 25 July 2006 (UTC)

It is a race now, just like that near-Beryl in late June. I'd give it a 60% chance of becoming a depression now. It has a golden but short opportunity. CrazyC83 03:41, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Looks like it is developing a closed circulation, it is so close to Texas. Irfanfaiz 10:24, 26 July 2006 (UTC)


 * Doesn't look likely anymore....
 * A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO THE
 * LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND THURSDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
 * CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.

doktorb wordsdeeds 11:06, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
 * That's not it. This is in Texas. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 12:20, 26 July 2006 (UTC)


 * Ah whoops... Sorry doktorb wordsdeeds 12:25, 26 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it got close but didnt close off a distinct circulation. -Winter123 00:47, 27 July 2006 (UTC)

03L.Chris
See the Chris Storm Event Archive.

90L.INVEST
New Invest near NC. →Cycl one1 → 13:45, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Signs of another 2004 are showing up. →Cycl one1 → 13:57, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Quicksat shows signs of a LLC, however I'm not sure. -- WmE 14:53, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * ANother Beryl? Maybe this one will be stronger, considering the waters are warmer. Uh oh. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 14:59, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * I am thinking the same thing. The waters are only slightly warmer though, so instead of a 50 knot storm, it could be a 60 knot storm. CrazyC83 15:06, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

This formed pretty fast. It wasn't even and AoI. →Cycl one1 → 15:18, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * And wasn't in the TWO from 5:30 am. Latest:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
 * Chacor 15:22, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

The models have really got a grip on this one (NOT!) --Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 15:26, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * What do you mean by that? →Cycl one1 → 15:29, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Oh, Lol! Maybe they got drunk at last night meteorology singles mixer and ther're cross-eyed from a hangover. That's my theory. →Cycl one1 → 15:32, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Wait, that was probably for Alberto. Al came from a 90L INVEST too. →Cycl one1 → 15:38, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * No, that's for this system. Alberto was in the Gulf of Mexico.  Hmm - all three BAM layers are taking the storm in different directions...too much shear? —AySz88\^ - ^  15:53, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Well, there's plenty of sheer... →Cycl one1 → 15:57, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Wait, no that's not for this system. This system is off the Carolinas. →Cycl one1 → 15:58, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Judging by the complete lack of agreement amongst the models, I would assume that steering currents are weak. Could this be another Ophelia? Pobbie Rarr 20:01, 31 July 2006 (UTC)
 * Well, it seems to be dissipating. íslenska hurikein #12 (samtal) 23:36, 31 July 2006 (UTC)

Gone. Alastor Moody (talk) 00:33, 1 Auguat 2006 (UTC)