Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season

September
Adding this section now, since it is already September in the WPac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:59, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits, located way out to sea near Micronesia. Not yet up on JTWC's outlook. But considering all that ocean up ahead, this could be the next big one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:21, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still not yet on JTWC, but who knows... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:41, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Never mind. This invest near Guam won't become anything. Global models are not supporting this and JTWC hasn't shown 97W in its outlook either. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Another Tropical Tidbits invest, situated at the Philippine Sea. Not yet on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:41, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now coded yellow on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:36, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * This may hit the Ryukyu Islands and/or Taiwan in the coming days and enhance the SW monsoon in the Philippines, but this is expected to remain weak. This may become Neneng though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
JMA has upgraded 98W to a TD. PAGASA has not yet named this system though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:16, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Medium chance of formation now. 98W has been coded orange on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:47, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. Here comes Mangkhut... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:51, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Still not yet named Neneng by PAGASA, but it is already on JMA's typhoon outlook page. Forecast to move towards Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands later on. Hopefully this won't exacerbate Jebi's effects. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:56, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * It won't become much anymore... down to code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:23, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Barijat and Neneng will wait. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
Yet another one on Tropical Tidbits, located very close to the International Dateline. Possibly associated with a 0/0 AOI that briefly appeared on the CPac outlook near the dateline, and then crossed it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:17, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Either this invest may take its time or won't develop at all. It has plenty of ocean ahead of it, but models are not that supportive. Shear (I believe) is high in that area near the International Dateline. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:05, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ignore what I said earlier. This is now on JTWC's outlook. Code yellow as of now though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:46, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC's outlook says that models are in good agreement in developing this into a significant tropical cyclone. This could be one to watch for in the distant long run, especially with all that ocean up ahead. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:25, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26W
I presume this is now the depression that has been upgraded from a JMA TD to 26W, and this thing will absolutely explode in the coming days...first advisory on it by the JTWC and it's already forecast to become a 155 mph super typhoon, and directly hit Guam to boot. This will probably become another cat 5 down the road. Not good...as if Olivia's threat to Hawaii and Flo heading for the U.S. eastern seaboard wasn't enough. Mangkhut will be one helluva storm. Ryan1000 03:26, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * O.O Dang! And even after the end of that forecast, there is still a lot of ocean ahead. This might get record-breaking powerful... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:26, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mangkhut
And it's here. Taiwan, Guam and possibly even the Philippines, China and the Ryukyu Islands all need to prepare for this one. This may finally beat the (official) three-way tie between Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:24, September 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Some models have shifted to take Mangkhut south of Guam instead. Hopefully this trend continues as impacts will be lessened that way. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:09, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

They've also shifted towards a landfall in Taiwan or even passing south of Taiwan to take aim towards a landfall in mainland China near Hong Kong, if Mangkhut maintains category 4 or 5 intensity by then it could be one of the most destructive typhoons on record. In any instance, we're going to see a very strong typhoon from this in the coming days, and Mangkhut is also the 21st named storm of this highly active Pacific typhoon season thus far. There aren't many other Pacific typhoon seasons that have racked up 21 named storms at this time of year, and we could see a near-record number of named storms at the rate this season is going, especially considering the WPac accelerates in late September, October, and early to mid-November, unlike the Atlantic. 1964 currently holds the record with 39 named storms forming in that season, while 1997 holds the ACE record. I'm not sure if we'll get 18 more storms from here on out to tie or beat that high mark but I'd be surprised if we don't get to at least 30 named storms at this rate. Ryan1000 17:31, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Mangkhut
Now a severe tropical storm, and should be a typhoon shortly. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     20:58, September 08, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut
Now a typhoon, and expected to be a very strong typhoon as well, maybe another STY. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     03:42, September 09, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is such an ominous storm. JTWC forecast track has shifted south; this time it takes Mangkhut to northern Luzon in the Philippines. Not to mention that JTWC sees Mangkhut to reach 165 knots (305 kph/190 mph) at the end of its forecast. Guam is still on the front line. This could potentially rival Pongsona or even Karen as Guam's worst, and may become a repeat of Megi 2010 for the Philippines as well. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a C2-equivalent typhoon with 90/955.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:45, September 09, 2018 (UTC)

Or, in a worst-case scenario, if Mangkhut only slightly misses Luzon to the north but maintains its powerful future cat 4/5 intensity into China, it could possibly make a near-direct hit on Hong Kong next week, and if a cat 5 storm hits there, it would be one of the worst Pacific typhoons on record. As ominous as Flo is in the Atlantic, Mangkhut could even be worse than Flo if Hong Kong is in the firing line down the road. Also, @A2.0, the JTWC still forecasts a 155 mph cat 4 from this, but the forecast gusts are up to 190 mph though. And, if Mangkhut makes the most of the favorable conditions ahead of it, a high-end cat 5 is certainly, and unfortunately, very possible with this storm. Ryan1000 23:36, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * My bad. I looked at the gusts instead of the sustained winds. It is still forecast to peak at 155 mph. The three-way tie between Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest according to JMA may remain for a longer time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:12, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Mangkhut now expected to peak at 140 knots,and potentially plow into Hong Kong and a powerful Category 4 hurricane.No.1 Mobile (talk) 18:26, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Exploding now. JTWC must be regretting lowering their forecast at 21z... Kiewii 22:28, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

I really don't like the prospect of Mangkhut maintaining high category 4 intensity in the South China Sea, especially since the track currently turns slightly more west of northwest late in the forecast period towards Hong Kong. A category 4 or 5 hitting that city would have catastrophic consequences. They had some close calls in the past, but a direct hit to Hong Kong from a very large and strong typhoon hasn't happened in decades. Ryan1000 01:03, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Philippine news outlets are saying Mangkhut (which will be named Ompong inside the PAR) could be the strongest storm to hit Extreme Northern Luzon (Batanes/Babuyan area), do you think Ompong and Mangkhut will be retired after this storm? Jskylinegtr (talk) 03:02, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Most likely. This is an ominous monster, and I really don't like what the agencies have forecasted for this storm. Northernmost Luzon and Hong Kong (and surrounding Chinese areas) are directly in the line of fire. This is becoming a freakin' scary situation. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:56, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Honestly, this is WPac's Florence this year, but this is shaping up as a mix between Megi 2010 and Meranti. And it just tied Jelawat, Maria and Jebi as this season's strongest in terms of 10-minute winds and pressure (120 mph & 915 mb). That tie will certainly be broken now. Mangkhut is now a 155 mph typhoon (1-min) and it is still not done yet; JTWC sees Mangkhut to peak at 150 knots (165 mph/270 kph), and JMA's forecast brings Mangkhut's pressure down to 900 mb by Friday (9/14). Northern Luzon and Hong Kong need to prepare for this one just like how The Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic are preparing for Florence right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC's rolling best track makes Mangkhut a C5. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:28, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * The super-tie has finally been broken. 110 kts (10-min)/905 mbar per JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:06, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to enter the PAGASA zone (the Philippine area of responsibility) later today. Not looking good for northern Luzon, and in the long run, Hong Kong and southern China. Will we see Hato/Usagi 2.0 from this one? I hope not, but it is likely. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:54, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Mangkhut (Ompong)
Mangkhut might also miss Luzon slightly to the north, and the latest forecast track from the JTWC continues on its southward bend and now takes Mangkhut to the west of Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta it resides upon, which would be a better scenario for China regarding overall impacts. However, it's still too soon to rule out a direct hit to the city (hopefully that doesn't happen, especially since Mangkhut will likely be a cat 5 or strong cat 4 when it nears landfall in southern China). Both this and Florence need to be closely watched over the next few days. Ryan1000 21:28, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * I would be really frightened if it directly hit Hong Kong at that sort of intensity. This may very well become the WPac's Florence. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:43, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * While PAGASA has not yet renamed Mangkhut as Ompong in the Philippines, it is 100% certain that it will do so later today (that's why I am no longer removing the header for this one). Mangkhut is still expected to miss the northernmost tip of Luzon, but things may still change. Hong Kong is still not out of the picture even if the forecast track has already shifted to its south-southwest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:13, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mangkhut is on track to become one of the most intense cyclones in history. Currently has 900 mbar.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     22:56, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not necessarily, 900 mbar isn’t unusual in the WPAC. It was the low pressure of five storms this decade: Sanba, Vongfong, Soudelor, Nepartak, and Haima. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 23:17, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Well, Ompong/Mangkhut's course is similar to Lawin/Haima's track, do you think it could cause enough damage that will guarantee both Mangkhut and Ompong's names to be retired from both lists? Jskylinegtr (talk) 01:12, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * If Mangkhut/Ompong manages to maintain its intensity or even intensify further before landfall, then it will become a definite retirement candidate for both PAGASA and JMA (the two agencies that named this typhoon). Right now, Mangkhut's pressure is still at the 900-905 mb range; some say it's at 900, JMA says it's at 905, and I have also seen someone mentioning that it is sub-900 now (898 mb). Meanwhile, HWRF is going nuts on this, but I am taking that model with a grain of salt. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:22, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Any differences between Ompong and Lawin/Haima's track? Jskylinegtr (talk) 13:51, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Their tracks are very similar until they reach China, where Mangkhut is forecast to continue on a straight westward trajectory, while Haima turned northward while dissipating and its remnants would go back out to sea. Mangkhut also formed further east. Anyway, Mangkhut is now a whopping 150 knots/175 mph according to the JTWC. Pressure is 905 mbar according to the JMA. Northern Luzon and southern China are still being threatened... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:52, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Code yellow on JTWC, located in the South China Sea near the Philippines. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Upped to code orange. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:54, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Now a TD per JMA. Still code orange on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:40, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. Not yet recognized by PAGASA though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:54, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 27W
Tropical Tidbits and Wikipedia both say that 90W is now 27W, yet I could not find it on JTWC's typhoon page. Likely to be named Neneng by PAGASA (if it ever recognizes this as a TD). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 27W (Neneng)
Now named by PAGASA. Expected to become Barijat in the next couple of hours and/or days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:46, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barijat (Neneng)
Officially named by the JMA. ~ Roy25    Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     03:19, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to slightly intensify before hitting south China and northern Vietnam. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:58, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Barijat (Neneng)
Already almost dead, but JMA keeps it up as a TD. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:55, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
Code yellow as of now. We might get another big one from here, just like Mangkhut. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC's outlook says that models don't show intensification, but you never know... ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:45, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gone from JTWC, still present in Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:48, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Since we've got 8 storms so far and Maria is looking like our first serious retirement candidate this year, we can begin this section now. Without further ado, here are my calls so far:

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
JMA: PAGASA: And that's my calls so far. Anyone else have thoughts? Ryan1000 16:55, July 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Bolaven - 20% - Caused some damage in the Philippines, but it wasn't as bad as some of the late-season storms last year (Kai-Tak and Tembin), and I'm not seeing a retirement in this case.
 * Sanba - 10% - Wasn't as bad as Bolaven, but gets credit for the minor impacts regardless.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Caused some rainfall over a few pacific islands, but no damage or deaths were reported.
 * Ewiniar - 32% - Was a somewhat destructive flood event for parts of southern China, but it wasn't as severe as some past storms in the country (like Hato last year, for example). Gets credit, but I don't think it'll be retired.
 * Maliksi - 1% - Killed two in the Philippines, but was otherwise a fishspinner.
 * Gaemi - 2% - Caused minor damage and killed 3 people as it passed southern Taiwan, but it won't be retired for that.
 * Prapiroon - 1% - Killed a person in South Korea and contributed to extensive flooding in Japan, but it wasn't directly responsible for most of the damage there.
 * Maria - 28% - Current damage projections are only at 491 million dollars, even less than Ewiniar, but that may increase later on. And fortunately, only 1 person was killed. I was fearing far worse from Maria since she was stronger and bigger than Fitow 5 years ago and it hit the same area, but I guess not, thankfully.
 * Son-Tinh - 22% - It's unfortunate that this storm killed more than 60 people with over 275 million dollars in damage, but that may not be severe enough for retirement; they've snubbed some worse storms in the past that hit the area. Still, it gets credit.
 * Ampil - 12% - Caused around 175 million dollars in flood damage to China with 1 death, but Ampil doesn't appear to have been too severe for them; it was not as severe as Ewiniar, let alone Maria, earlier in the season.
 * Wukong - 0% - Never affected any land.
 * Jongdari - 8% - Jongdari was one of only a small handful of typhoons to attack Japan from southeast to northwest (along with Lionrock 2 years ago, Ben in 1983 and Viola in 1966), but it was only an 80 mph storm when it did so, and it doesn't seem to have been too serious for them, unlike the flooding they saw earlier in the month.
 * Shanshan - 4% - Passed just east of Tokyo, but with that said, its downward wind flow pushed water out of the bay, minimizing flooding and there likely wasn't much wind damage either.
 * Yagi - 3% - Caused some damage and 2 deaths, but it probably won't go.
 * Leepi - 4% - Caused some minor flooding in Japan, but likely won't be retired.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Caused some flooding in southern China from its stalled motion, but likely won't be retired.
 * Rumbia - 40% - Woah, never mind my previous post, Rumbia actually turned out to be the costliest storm of the season so far, with over 1.3 billion dollars in heavy flood damage and 22 deaths to boot. Not a first for China, but still destructive regardless.
 * Soulik - 15% - 80 million in damage or so probably won't cut it.
 * Cimaron - 10% - Hit Japan as a cat 1, hopefully Cimaron wasn't much worse than Jongdari.
 * Jebi - >55% - Caused considerable damage and many deaths when it struck the Osaka area of southern Japan. Could be a serious retirement candidate depending on how bad overall impacts were in the country.
 * Mangkhut - ?? - Still active, but is currently an extremely dangerous super typhoon taking direct aim towards Luzon and southern China, especially worried about Hong Kong and surrounding cities.
 * Barijat - ?? - Still active, but not likely to be too serious for southern China around Hainan Island.
 * Josie - 100% - Current damages are projected at 3.82 billion PHP, which meets their retirement criteria. So, bye.
 * All other names - 0% - Didn't met the PAGASA retirement criteria of 1 Billion PHP damage and/or 300 deaths.

Roy25's prediction
Might as well add mine with Maria nearing land, and may be devastating.

Intensity colors: TD, STS , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???

JMA:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bolaven ( 15% ) - Had caused some damage in the Phillippines, but this won't be retired
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba ( 10% ) - Killed quite alot but this also won't be going
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat ( 0% ) - Caused no damage and deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar ( 8% ) - Killed 8 and caused just over half a billion, but I doubt this name will go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Maliksi ( 0.001% ) - Didn't do too much other than 2 deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi ( 0.001% ) - Same as Maliksi, even with one extra death
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon ( 9% ) - While stronger, other than 1 death, this storm didn't do too much
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria ( 37% ) - As of now had caused $491 million in damage, and only 1 death so far (feared there would be more, but fortunately that didn't happen as of now).
 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh ( 10% ) - While it regenerated, it has caused 10 deaths and $17.5 million, but this won't go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Ampil ( 13% ) - Had caused 1 death but $173 million in damage, but I have doubt this will go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Wukong ( 0% ) - Didn't do much, pretty much a fish
 * <font color="#ffe775">Jongdari ( 8% ) - Only caused $54 million in damage, but this won't be retired.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Shanshan ( 0.001% ) - Hadn't caused any damage or deaths, but affected land, but this name is staying
 * <font color="#00faf4">Yagi ( 9% ) - Damage similar to Jongdari, but 4 deaths, but even then, this is staying
 * <font color="#ccffff">Bebinca ( 17% ) - Did a lot of damage at $266 million as well as 10 deaths, but retirement is pretty unlikely
 * <font color="#ccffff">Leepi ( 0.001% ) - Didn't do anything other than affecting land
 * <font color="#00faf4">Rumbia (<font color="#cf0">47% ) - Woah, this TS did $1.3 billion in damage as well as 22 deaths! Now the costliest storm of the season thus far
 * <font color="#ffc140">Soulik ( 17% ) - Caused $80.5 million in damage, but this is staying
 * <font color="#ffc140">Cimaron ( 1% ) - Didn't do too much other than affecting land
 * <font color="#ccffff">Jebi (???) - Currently active

PAGASA
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Josie (<font color="#500">100% ) - Caused ₱4.66 billion in damage, which exeeds the ₱1 billion requirement to retire a PAGASA name.
 * Rest of the names used this season ( 0% ) - Didn't met PAGASA requirement for retirement

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

-- Roy 25  18:32, July 10, 2018 (UTC) 03:16, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0 WestPac retirement projections
JMA names
 * Bolaven - 5% - Minor damage; Philippines has seen worse.
 * Sanba - 5% - Same as above.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Early super typhoon, but also a fishspinner.
 * Ewiniar - 20% - There is substantial damage in China, but China has seen more ferocious storms than this.
 * Maliksi - 5% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon in the Philippines and killed 2 people, but I don't think it will be decomissioned from the list. Storms such as Saola & Haikui '12, Trami '13, Fung-wong '14, Chan-hom & Linfa '15 and Doksuri '17 caused more disruption to the Philippines and did not get retired; I think the same thing applies to Maliksi.
 * Gaemi - 1% - 3 deaths, minor damage... but still, Gaemi will stay.
 * Prapiroon - 15% - No direct effects but this storm exacerbated the massive rain event in Japan which has killed more than 200 people. But if its 2000 incarnation did not get the boot, why should its 4th incarnation get it?
 * Maria - 20% - The missing link between the fishspinner Marie in 2014 and the devastating Atlantic Maria last year. A great spectacle, and fortunately not as destructive as everyone feared. Caused notable damage, but the low fatality count would surely lessen Maria's chances of retirement. However, the U.S. may still request to remove this (a la Yanyan/Tingting/Vicente) due to the eponymous Atlantic storm.
 * Son-Tinh - 35% - Such an erratic and deadly storm, despite remaining relatively weak. The percentage could have been higher had it not affect Vietnam, a country notable for its lax retirement policy, not to mention that it is the samw country that contributed the name.
 * Ampil - 10% - Nah, I don't see this going, despite causing some indirect troubles in the Philippines.
 * Wukong - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Jongdari - 10% - Japan got lucky from this one. Damage is lower than feared, and no fatalities occurred.
 * Shanshan - 10% - Almost same with Jongdari. Shanshan may have threatened the Tokyo area, but impacts remained minimal.
 * Yagi - 15% - Had impacts in China (directly) and the Philippines (indirectly), but not enough to warrant retirement.
 * Leepi - 5% - Made landfall in Japan, but little to no damage has been reported.
 * Bebinca - 20% - Son-Tinh lite. Less deaths (only 3), but costlier than Son-Tinh as Bebinca also affected China. The damage cost isn't that high though.
 * Rumbia - 50% - Literal 50/50. Partly because of the relatively low death toll but high damage, but also because it did not peak past tropical storm status. However, Rumbia is now the costliest of tbe season (so far). But stronger and costlier storms like 2013's Usagi got snubbed. This all depends on China's prerogative
 * Soulik - 15% - Affected China, Japan and the two Koreas, but only did little damage.
 * Cimaron - 10% - Made landfall as a typhoon, but no reports of any casualty/damage.
 * Jebi - TBA - Let's wait and see. Japan have been lucky since Jongdari, but Jebi is forecast to remain as a typhoon once it moves ashore.

PAGASA names
 * Agaton to Caloy - 0% - Did not meet the criteria.
 * Domeng - 5% - Did not meet the criteria but I still gave it 5% because maybe – just maybe – PAGASA strikes this out of the list due to its relatively notable impacts.
 * Ester, Florita & Gardo - 0% - Same as the first 3 storms of the year.
 * Henry & Inday - 20% - Percentage could have been higher had these two storms directly affected the Philippines. However, it is a combination of these two storms and the SW monsoon that did the destruction, and the damage total for that did not even reach a billion pesos for each of these storms.
 * Josie - 55% - While Josie met the PHP 1 billion criteria, that damage cost is only indirectly associated to the storm. It was the southwest monsoon that inflicted most of the damage.
 * Karding - 20% - Caused some disruption to the Philippines by also enhancing the southwest monsoon, but I don't see it getting axed by PAGASA, especially given the fact that despite the massive rainfall recorded, the damage only reached a million pesos.
 * Luis & Maymay - 0% - Passers-by that did not do any damage to the Philippines.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:59, July 15, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:33, September 2, 2018 (UTC).

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: Based off of JTWC intensities. <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

International:

To reduce clutter and save space, only tropical systems that were declared at least a TD by both the JMA and JTWC are included.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">6% - Only slight impacts, not enough to get retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Weak name stealer, JTWC did not even consider this a tropical storm. It did cause some impacts which makes it somewhat memorable.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - More deadly than Bolaven, but less damage. The deaths slightly boost up my percentage. Another non-candidate for retirement, though.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - A tiny bit stronger than Bolaven, but still a weak fail. Like Bolaven, caused slightly memorable impacts.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement: <font color="#77A">0.001% - Basically a fishspinner, except for tiny impacts in Palau, the Caroline Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Amazing super typhoon in late March. As a bonus, it almost completely avoided land. Gets more credit for time of the year. A C5 would have earned it an "EO" rating.


 * <font color="#00faf4">04W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Although it was a piece of junk, I do have to give it a tiny bit of credit for not stealing a name despite JTWC considering it a tropical storm.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#3F0">32% - $573 million is a pretty significant damage bill which makes retirement an outside possibility. 15 deaths as well. But they have still seen much worse, plus this was a weak storm.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Another weakling, but with memorability that prevents it from falling to lower grades.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Maliksi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.5% - Impacts were insignificant. 2 deaths unfortunately.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Failed to make typhoon status, despite being so close.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.7% - Like Maliksi, insignificant impacts and few deaths. One additional death slightly increases my percentage.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Stronger than previous tropical storms, but still pretty weak overall.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * Retirement: 5% - 4 deaths and at least $10 million in damage. Also contributed to the devastating Japan floods.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - At least it reached typhoon intensity by both agencies, even though it was near the bare minimum for typhoon strength.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0F0">26% - Looked like it would be a monster, but damage and deaths appear to be less than initially feared. Devastation was even less than Ewiniar, and deaths were much less than Ewiniar.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Reached an incredible intensity, and would have been EO if it stayed out to sea.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0FF">15% - Very deadly, with 66 deaths and $235 million in damage. Since it mainly affected Vietnam, which has never retired a storm name before, I highly doubt this will be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - Credit for unexpectedly moving back out to sea and regenerating. However, the deaths and devastation prevent the grade from being any higher than this.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ampil :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0AF">12% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - Some credit for reaching STS status according to the JMA.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">13W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - At least it didn't steal a JMA name.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Wukong :
 * Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F90">D+ - Became a borderline typhoon, and only JMA failed to recognize it as a typhoon.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Jongdari :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">5% - $54 million isn't enough for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#3F0">B+ - Awesome track consisting of loops and a rare approach of Japan from the west. That slightly boosts the grade.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">16W :
 * Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired due to lack of name.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Shear took a toll on the poor system. At least it didn't steal a name.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Shanshan :
 * Retirement: 1% - Impacts don't appear to be nearly as bad as feared. Nothing reported on Wikipedia as of yet.
 * Grading: <font color="#9F0">B- - Did a satisfactory job intensity-wise.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Yagi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">5% - $56.1 million dollars in damage and 4 deaths should not be enough for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Weak failure that barely even tried. It did last over a week though.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Leepi :
 * Retirement: 1% - Doubt it was too bad. Still nothing reported yet on Wikipedia.
 * Grading: <font color="#F90">D+ - Unofficially reached typhoon strength.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Bebinca :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0FF">18% - Did a sizable amount of damage and killed 10 people. Retirement's highly unlikely, but it ain't impossible.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - At least it reached STS status and wasn't a total name waste.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Rumbia :
 * Retirement: 50% - Oh no, this was a VERY destructive as well as deadly storm, especially for its intensity. Retirement might be likely due to $1.3 billion dollars in damage and 22 deaths, which puts it above Ewiniar (the previous most destructive storm of the season). Since China is not very good with retirements and this was a weakling, I'm giving Rumbia a coin toss.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Although it peaked short of STS intensity, it isn't a complete fail, especially considering the impacts.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Soulik :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - Did some damage, but it shouldn't be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - Reached a nice intensity which is worthy of a satisfactory grade.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Cimaron :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">5% - Still nothing reported yet on Wikipedia, but a typhoon striking Japan shouldn't go without at least some damage. Preliminary percentage for now, and will likely rise as reports come in.
 * Grading: <font color="#6F0">B - According to JMA, it peaked at the same exact intensity as Soulik (100 mph/950 mbars).


 * <font color="#5ebaff">24W :
 * Retirement: N/A - Not named.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Not that much of an epic failure, since 6 deaths were reported and some damage.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Jebi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#F60">62% - Looking like a potential retirement candidate due to how intense it was when it hit Japan (most intense since Yancy in 1993). 17 deaths have been reported after it hit Japan, but damages are still unknown. This preliminary percentage could drop or rise once damages are released.
 * Grading: <font color="#096">A+ - A very powerful system that is tied with Maria and Jelawat for most intense of the 2018 season. Japan impacts prevent the grade from getting higher than this.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Mangkhut :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Barijat :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement prediction will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.

PAGASA: Retirement percentages only.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Josie : <font color="#000">100% - Wikipedia reports ₱4.66 billion in damage, which meets their retirement criteria.
 * No other names meet PAGASA's retirement requirements of ₱1 billion in damage and 300 deaths.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 05:46, September 12, 2018 (UTC))

Harvey's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#666">0% or <font color="#666">N/A, <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9% , <font color="#00FFFF">1-9% , <font color="#00D5D5">10-19% , <font color="#00A0A0">20-29% , <font color="#00A000">30-39% , <font color="#FFC800">40-49% , <font color="#FF8800">50-59% , <font color="#E80000">60-69% , <font color="#B40000">70-79% , <font color="#800000">80-89% , <font color="#000000">90-99% , <font color="#000080">100% 

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

JMA Names:


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00FFFF">7%  - Only did minor damage. Unlikely to be retired.
 * Grade:  F  - Weak name stealer that was not even considered a TS by the JTWC. Not any lower because it at least spanned two calendar years.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00D5D5">12%  - Like Bolaven, it's a weak tropical storm that caused minor damage, but a higher death count and a lower cost total. Also unlikely to be retired.
 * Grade:  F  - It's also a weak name stealer like Bolaven. Not really memorable.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement:  <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001%  - Aside from the minor impacts to Palau, the Caroline Islands and the Mariana Islands, there was no other impact caused by this storm.
 * Grade:  A+++  - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">04W :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A 
 * Grade:  F  - The storm mostly failed. But I do give it credit for not stealing a name.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00A000">37%  - Currently the most destructive, causing $573 million USD damage and 15 deaths. It does have a chance of getting retired.
 * Grade:  A+++  - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Maliksi :
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh :
 * <font color="#ccffff">Ampil :

PAGASA Names: No name meets their retirement criteria yet.

Notes:

Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  06:05, July 23, 2018 (UTC)

SuperMarioBros99thx's update on Son-Tinh
I am sorry if i had to say this which should have been off-topic because i recently noticed that this storm was a monster and not just a simple one so i had to bring this.​​​​​​

Recently in Wikipedia i, as SMB99thx essentially changed Son-Tinh's page into something of more of a disaster than it should be. When i am reanalyzing about this storm, i noticed that Laos dam collapse is highly connected to this storm, not just related into it. There is a fact that Laos dam collapse' deaths are included in the death totals and linked to the article of that dam collapse, i noticed that Laos dam collapse damages are not updated and found more interesting details about the collapse for example are the missing people. As such i've changed the much as i could including linking the storm into another deadly storm (see also section), Severe Tropical Storm Linda. I came into the conclusion that this storm is severely underestimated, thus i had to make a major changes like that. Thus, i had to bring that storm for attention here, first off in Hurricanes Wiki.

I would love to bring it more but i had to share the information in here first. Hopefully you will know how truly disastrous this storm it is. I expect grade changes and some ratings changes but overall i think this storm is unlikely to retire as most have said about it (Indochina has a poor record of retiring these disastrous storms). Anyways, thanks for receiving this news item. Son-Tinh is a Washi's counterpart of Indochina, but unlikely to get retirement anytime soon. Feel free to remove this section if that change were to be not accepted and reverted, but otherwise it's okay.

Thanks,

05:26, August 12, 2018 (UTC) i had a broken signature for now, signature coming soon