Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We have one for the EPac, so why not the Atlantic? Betting pools are here. I'll make my worldwide calls later on. Ryan1000 21:20, November 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * I really want more from this upcoming season; 2014 was a good start. I predict...18 total depressions, 16 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, all with an ACE of ~194 units. Also, I want this season to be dead quiet at first before becoming a nightmare season. See more information here... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, November 28, 2014 (UTC)

It's ALMOST THE NEW YEAR!!!! :D well, it is in Australia.... rarity is worst pony 19:21, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
A new tropical wave is being monitored by the NHC, and is on the 5-day outlook at 0/10. I believe gradual development is possible in the long run, and I won't be surprised if we see Grace from this AOI. But development should only be slow, and due to the unfavorable conditions around the Atlantic, who knows what this system might do. -- Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me)  06:05, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Grace this is supposed to be? Hope becomes a C5 out in the Atlantic! Remember to reply back on my talk page! Hurricanes are awesome 23:50, September 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, it's supposed to be Grace. And it won't come even close to C5, as there hasn't been one since 2007 and the conditions throughout the Atlantic just won't support a storm strengthening that much. We also don't need to reply this back on your talk, since we can reply here. Back to the AOI, it's now 0/20. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 01:47, September 3, 2015 (UTC)

Now with a 40% chance for development, it can possibly become "Grace" or at least "Six-L" when over the Cape-Verde islands. Puffle 2005 - 2015  🌀KATRINA🌀  21:58, September 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * More specifically, it's 20% (48 hours) and 40% (5 days). It is also a good time to remind everyone to Beware The First Storm Of September!!!!!!! Though I'm not sure how the adage will hold up this year :/ -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Gah Steven, when you say Eric's great adage it reminds me of...just how much I miss him. :( he hasn't posted once since the end of 2012 season, with Sandy. Anyways, back to this, it's been invested and it could become something in the long run, but development, if any, will be slow to occur. It probably won't become anything until it reaches the area where Erika formed, if that. Ryan1000 02:19, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

I miss Steven  Eric too. I mean, I didn't know him much because I joined in 2012 and wasn't that active on this wiki until late 2013. However, I've gone back through the years on these forums and I've laughed at some of his older posts, a lot. Anyways, this, as Ryan said, won't do much, so I don't think it'll hold up this year. Also, I'm thinking we should make an adage for 'I' storms, for obvious reasons. leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 23:48, September 4, 2015 (UTC) (edited) (Why did I put Steven instead of Eric? Typical leeboy100 screwup)


 * Lol, stuff like that sometimes happens when you either type too fast or are not careful. XD Anyway, I also barely know Eric myself, since I joined the wiki in July 2013, but I've been reading the forums on this wiki since around the time of Hurricane Sandy. The adage certainly won't hold up this year for sure; this invest is looking likely to be a fishspinner. It's up to 70/80, BTW. Looks like Grace will be used for an actually normal storm this year! Unlike that strange 2009 incarnation. And lastly, an "I" storm adage would be a good idea, due to really obvious reasons. I tried making it up back during Ingrid in September 2013, calling it "Beware The "I" Storm!", but this year looks likely to not produce a destructive "I" storm due to how inactive the year was. Unless this "I" storm is a major in the Caribbean in October. Who knows what will happen, in the future of this season. I will say my new adage, with links provided, once we reach our "I" storm. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:59, September 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Woah, this thing's organizing pretty fast, it's now up to 70/90 and could become a depression as soon as tomorrow. But the faster it intensifies, the more likely it'll recurve north and east and remain at sea. Ryan1000 02:22, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to find Tropical Depression Six or potentially Tropical Storm Grace tomorrow morning. This wave is really getting its act together. I don't believe this one will get to be too strong, maybe just a potent tropical storm. Owen 04:43, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Replying to what Steve said about the first storm of September, we may or may not get a C5 Grace like This Prediction I found on Hypothetical Hurricanes. Puffle  2005 - 2015  🌀KATRINA🌀  13:39, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven
Now numbered and forecast to become Grace as it heads west towards the Lesser Antilles in the long run, but the area is still overrun by strong wind shear and stable air. It may not make it past the area where Danny and Erika died. Ryan1000 16:04, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

YES!!! WE HAVE IT!!! WE HAVE DEPRESSION SEVEN! Puffle 2005 - 2015  🌀KATRINA🌀  17:27, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Grace
AL, 07, 2015090518,, BEST, 0, 125N, 257W, 35, 1007, -- Amazing Grace has arrived!  Owen   19:46, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

A bit late. But, grace is here. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  22:04, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * NHC confirmed, but the track forecast is pretty much the same. Ryan1000 22:45, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yay, I guess.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 23:46, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Grace has finally came to us! She should gradually strengthen over the next few days, but the hostile Atlantic could probably prevent her from reaching hurricane strength. It is only forecast to strengthen to 55 knots (65 mph), but it would probably not be out of the question for Grace to achieve hurricane strength with all the ocean in her path. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk.  •   See My Edits   •   ✉ (Email me)  21:12, September 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * Darn editing conflicts. Anyways, what I was going to say was "Amazing" Grace is predicted to take a path similar to Erika. We may need to watch this, Dominica does not need another tropical storm. Erika has already done enough.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 21:15, September 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Not going to happen leeboy, Grace is moving much faster than Erika and it'll be encountering a crapload of strong wind shear when it nears the lessers. That shear, which could be up to 40 knots, should tear Grace down to a depression or dissipate it completely. Ryan1000 01:20, September 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That's good. Hopefully that happens  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 01:32, September 7, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Grace
Now down to a tropical depression. Bye Grace! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:20, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

it looks like a open wave in visible. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:40, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Grace
What a graceless waste of a name. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:35, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * You mean what a dis-Grace-ful storm, right? (forgive the pun, I couldn't resist). Ryan1000 19:15, September 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Same difference XD --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:18, September 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * This storm fell from grace. Am I right?  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:05, September 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Storms can't fall from heights they never reached ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:18, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * True. XD  leeboy100 My Talk! 22:51, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * what a nonGraceful waste of name. lets hope for no Graceless wastes of names. and no Grace-like storms please -<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:52, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I remember my thoughts I typed out a few days ago saying this could have possibly have a shot at hurricane status, but I guess not. What a disgrace of a TC! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:58, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * It is being monitored at near 0%. But I really don't think it'll ever redevelop, as environmental conditions are pretty hostile around there. Since it most likely won't redevelop, its still a graceless disgrace. :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:08, September 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Still being monitored at 0/0. NHC, we all know this won't redevelop. I think they're just monitoring it because of the rain it's producing in the Leewards. But it should die soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:20, September 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * For the record, it's off the TWO now. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:27, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Newly invested, and is at 10/20 on the official TWO. Could develop into Henri within the next few days. Owen 00:20, September 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now up to 40%. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, September 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now 60/60. Henri is almost here! If Henri forms, however, it'll likely be a fairly quick stunt as it will be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone on Friday or Saturday. Owen 00:42, September 9, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
NHC issued new advisories for the newly formed T.D. 8. Must have been quick: the first surface wind field map for the depression is centered south of Nigeria. Jake52 (talk) 07:16, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Nigeria? You mean Newfoundland. This thing is going to be heading north and then east, but it doesn't have much time to strengthen. Could become Henri briefly. Ryan1000 19:15, September 9, 2015 (UTC)042643R_sm.gif
 * Nope...Nigeria. More Ghana, though. Jake52 (talk) 22:31, September 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's usually a mistake by the NHC...the map is fixed now.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:10, September 9, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Henri
He's here! Owen 02:43, September 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Eh, you beat me by a few minutes. Well, forecast to head northeast and out to sea, just offshore of Newfoundland. Ryan1000 02:47, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I haven't seen such a pathetic-looking TS in this basin since Jose four years ago. So much for me winning in the betting pools, looks like the name I voted to be the strongest will instead replace Claudette/Erika as the weakest XD --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:41, September 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Woah, Erika was the weakest storm of the season?!?!?! Wow. Anyways this storm looks pathetic, might be a biggure fail than Dis-grace.  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:53, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Crazy to think about, isn't it? Erika and Claudette are currently tied at 45 kts/1003 mbar, but the way Henri's going, he looks poised to beat them. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:16, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * He's looking pretty pathetic at this point, I agree. Henri literally came out of nowhere; I haven't been able to really look at NHC the past few days due to school. I think Henri could possibly beat them as the weakest storm of the season, but we'll have to wait and see. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:01, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that advisories should have been discontinued just now. This is an animation of surface wind flow underneath Henri; what I'm seeing is an open trough, not a tropical cyclone. If the next ATCF update comes along 3 hours from now and I see a "TS," "TD," or even a "LO" where a "DB" or "WV" should be, I'll be shocked. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:17, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still a tropical storm per ATCF, WTH?? AL, 08, 2015091112,, BEST, 0, 373N, 598W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 150, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 120, 45, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HENRI, M, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:48, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Henri
ATCF apparently spoke too soon, Dylan. NHC issued their last advisory now. Henri out-failed Claudette. Ryan1000 22:28, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

Another day, another fail. This link pretty much sums up Henri in 5 seconds: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A   leeboy100 9/11 never forget 22:44, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Henri out-failed most storms that have occurred in any TC basin tbh. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:08, September 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yep, and it's a shame too, I like the name Henry. I used to have a close friend with that name in school. (except spelled with a 'y' instead of an 'i'). I haven't seen him in years though, not sure if he's even alive... JK, he's probably still alive. Anyways, this might have failed worse than Failecia. OK, it didn't fail that bad. I remember last year we all wanted Fay to be a "fayl" (one of Ryan's many great puns) but now we've had enough fails! >:(  leeboy100 9/11 never forget 23:44, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'd say that this out-failed Felicia. At least Felicia looked like a tropical cyclone. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:51, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I know, Henri epically failed to extreme proportions. Also, at peak strength, Henri's pressure was 1008 mbars, while Felicia's was 1004 mbars. This proves that Henri certainly out-failed Felicia, a.k.a Failicia. One can not simply, fail this bad. Henri... you just hijacked and stole a name off the Atlantic lists. This might have failed on the scale of 2013's worst storms (ex. Jerry), Karina in 2008, Fausto in 2014, a few 2011 fails like Jose, and 2007's Jerry. Bye, fail! ;) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:01, September 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Jose was epic...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:54, September 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * The only epic things about Jose were that it developed out of nowhere, and looked really small and strange on satellite. Otherwise, it was a weak TS, and since it failed to affect land, was an epic fail of a storm. Just because a storm has epic characteristics doesn't mean that it's not an epic fail. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 04:13, September 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Most of the time Henri is used for an epic fail. Like Larry I put them on the bottom.I hope maybe once they will be strong hurricanes.181.210.32.220 02:25, September 17, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: ECMWF GoM storm
Euro is showing a storm by the end of the 00z run. its very consistent <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:34, September 9, 2015 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
suprise! <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:53, September 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * It looks like since the other system in the Atlantic will be Ida, this one will be Joaquin if it does get named. It will be nice to finally see the name used. Owen 00:05, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * It doesn't have much time, it'll remain stationary for another day before moving northwest into Mexico. If it wants to become Joaquin, it better get on with it. Ryan1000 07:51, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's just kind of a failed invest. :P All it'll ever do is just bring quite a rainy day for northern Mexico and surrounding areas. I'd be really shocked if it developed. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:23, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.Over Africa
Expected to move off the coast soon and has a 20% chance of developing in 5 days. Though it's probably going to be moving over the same general area where Grace, Danny, and Erika died in the long run. Ryan1000 11:24, September 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think it might have a shot at being Ida, but then it'll be another weakling in the same area that Grace, Danny, and Erika moved through. Unfavorable conditions continue to dominate the Atlantic, so expect a weak TS at most. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:03, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks like we may be getting Ida soon. I'm really surprised from this year that we've gotten this many storms already, the amount we have right now is around where I believed the final totals would be. I can see 2-3 more storms easily coming out of this season before it wraps up. Owen 02:18, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

For a super El Nino year, 8 storms thus far isn't half bad. Conditions could improve for development of this disturbance in the Central Atlantic, but it'll probably be recurving out to sea if it gets too strong. Ryan1000 22:40, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

I agree, Ryan. This season is actually somewhat interesting and we've even had a terrible storm (not that that's a good thing) Kind of like 1992 it was an El Nino and had interesting storms and one really destructive one  leeboy100 9/11 never forget 23:05, September 11, 2015 (UTC)

This has a chance to become the 'I' storm, and since Eric's adage is so great, I decided to make one related to 'I' storms. I've thought long and hard on this but here goes: Beware The "I" Of The Storm

But no matter how good that adage is it can't replace Eric's adage, nor can I replace Eric. leeboy100 9/11 never forget 23:01, September 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * I actually think that badge was well-done and could become nearly as famous as Eric's eventually. Let's just wait and see. Anyway, the system really lacks convection currently, but it could still become something in the long run. 0/50 as of now. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:04, September 12, 2015 (UTC)

Just remember that an El Nino can't always mean that we don't have a historic storm. El Niño does destructive things to people <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  01:17, September 12, 2015 (UTC) (BTW, i know 2014 wasn't an El Nino, but i just had to put Odile in there.)
 * aaaa. stupid edit conflict. took me 3 hours to post lol. #Typical-Screw-up <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  01:32, September 12, 2015 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Invested. And 50/80. Here comes our next storm, Ida!! I think it will be a fishspinner, so maybe the "Beware the I of the storm" badge won't really work this year. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:24, September 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, Steve, the badge could work if Ida becomes a significant hurricane for the fishes, which can't be ruled out since it will likely miss the conditions that systems like Danny, Erika and Grace had to deal with. Maybe we'll see a Category 5 for the first time since 2007 (doubt it but I'm wishcasting here). We'll see. It wouldn't be too shocking to see Ida, Joaquin, and Kate by the time the month ends. Owen 00:05, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Should become Ida soon, it's at 80/90 and conditions favor development. Ryan1000 07:51, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * If I'm looking at the same system, it's down to 60/60. It might still have a shot to be Ida, but I'm pretty much starting to doubt it at this point, due to the upper-level winds it's about to face. But I do think it still has a slight shot to be Ida, but it'll most likely only be a weakling if it ever does become something. And Owen, I'd be better off using the adage for systems that cause destruction on land. Even a Cat. 5 fishspinner might not make the adage since it still is not a danger to landmasses. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:21, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
no comments... <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:41, September 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * Um... well then! Not expected to become named. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:41, September 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * TD 9 doesn't seem to be a particularly lucky number with this naming list, the only time it did anything significant was Frederic in 1979. The TD 9 of 2003 didn't become named, and Grace '09, Grace '97, Fabian '91, and Henri '85 were weaklings, this one probably will be too. Ryan1000 21:00, September 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hopefully this weakling won't become named. Thankfully it's not expected too, but I'd say it's still not out of the question it could steal a name. TD 9 will have to be unlucky again this year. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:43, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was looking ok on satellite 12 hours ago, but it looks to have lost a lot of it's deep convection and could be remnants soon. At least it wasn't a 90% bust, which almost happened. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:10, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * A 90% bust would probably be the biggest bust possible, since "near 100%" systems would almost certainly, if not certainly, be declared as a TD. Luckily it wasn't such a huge bust. Anyway, it shouldn't be named at this rate, as it's getting worse in organization and is still 30 mph. Ida will have to wait. Just be glad it didn't go to this weakling. And welcome to the wiki, Raindrop! :) <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:59, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Thank you! Anyway, the depression doesn't even look like a tropical system anymore as it's lost almost all it's convection. I wouldn't be surprised if it's declared remnants in the next advisory at this point, and even the 70/70 invest looks better organized. Well, at least it formed.


 * Edit: I pretty much just said that lol.


 * Update: Latest advisory still calls it a tropical depression even though Wunderground shows absolutely no deep convection. :/~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:51, September 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * Probably won't become named at this point, it's devoid of nearly all thunderstorm convection and will probably die tomorrow. Ryan1000 23:22, September 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's somehow still managing to stay a depression, producing new bursts of convection once again just as it looked completely dead. It still should die soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:22, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * It is STILL a TD. I think it should die later today. It is lasting longer than I thought...<font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:53, September 19, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.East-Central Atlantic
It's well northwest of the AOI near the coast of Africa and will probably follow in Henri's footsteps and head west-northwest, before turning north then northeast. 10/20 for now. Ryan1000 22:40, September 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * It might have a slight shot at being Ida or Joaquin, but I hold some slight doubts about that. Environmental conditions aren't the most favorable, and the system looks pretty disorganized currently. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:05, September 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * This is how to describe this fail of an AOI: Did-you-mean-7f006835fbe15076035aa5a3d6ff92d9.png <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  17:25, September 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Those pictures are hilarious XD, but it's still at 10/10 on the TWO. It might be a little too early for these pictures, I would have posted it when it was dead. I don't think it'll develop anyway. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:22, September 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * And it has poofed from the tropical weather outlook. What a "Fail AOI", I have to agree with you Puffle. :D <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:36, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.Behind 93L
Another system has emerged off of Africa, this one is at 30% for 5 days and will probably follow in 93L's footsteps. Ryan1000 07:51, September 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * If this becomes Joaquin, then I want it to be a Category 2 storm out to the sea. 🌀 are awesome🌀 21:09, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, at this rate it may just be Ida. The 60/60 invest to its west doesn't have much time to become something, and if it does, a minimum TS at most. This AOI could only be Joaquin instead if the other invest starts firing up and becoming named. Anyway, a named storm is very likely out of this, and the latest TWO pins it at 30/60. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:25, September 15, 2015 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
No one's updated this yet I see...was invested a while back, but since steering currents for this and TD 9 are weak, it won't be moving very far in the short term. Ryan1000 21:00, September 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * Right now, the invest is pinned at the 70/80 mark; Ida should possibly come out of this invest soon. But if we do see it, it'd probably be a TS at peak strength, and at very most, a minor hurricane. Though it could be too early for forecasting, but I still hope for this to be a hurricane. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:45, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/70. If it wants to be Ida, it'd better do it soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:03, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's running out of time to become Ida now, the NHC is starting to say things about the unfavorable conditions that TD 9 has had to deal with. Even if it forms, it will be weak at this point unless it decides to be one of those storms that fights unfavorable conditions. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:32, September 18, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten
Looks like a depression managed to happen nonetheless. Forecast to eventually peak at 50 kts. After Grace, Henri, and TD 9, I'm not holding my breath, but we'll see. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:42, September 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * I didn't even know that you could have two tropical systems that close together! Hopefully this will absorb TD9 and become a hurricane, I'm sick of tropical storms that look horrible on satellite. At least after being an invest for almost a week, it finally developed. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:08, September 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * It took a long time to develop due to weak steering currents in the area, and they're going to remain weak as this heads northwest and probably will become Ida. Ryan1000 23:22, September 18, 2015 (UTC)



Tropical Storm Ida
Ninth of the season might become a hurricane. I am expecting a cat 2 of this. We might end with 13 or 14 named storms if 96L develops into Joaquin.Allanjeffs 03:12, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hello, Ida! The NHC forecasts a strong (70 mph) tropical storm out of her. I wouldn't put a hurricane out of the question, and it would be nice to see a hurricane especially due to the fact we've only seen two of them this year. Owen 04:16, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hello, Ida. My question is will the 'I' curse continue with Ida? I want to remind everyone to Beware The "I" Of The Storm  leeboy100 My Talk! 04:37, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't really think it will continue since Ida looks like a fishspinner, but I don't know about the long run. Anyways, hello Ida! Looks like it will become stationary at the end of the forecast. I think it will become a hurricane. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:56, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Anyone notice how big the swath of Ida's tropical storm wind probabilities get later on? This could be a pretty large storm if that's true. Would be nice if it becomes a hurricane and develops an eye. Because come on, you can't have an I named storm with no eye! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:30, September 19, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
I doubt this will become much, but a new AOI is at 0/20 in the GOM. I'd be surprised if it became named, since these type of systems usually don't look like they will become much at all. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:48, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's up to 10/30 now. Yes, I know you've never seen me here before, but I've been kinda stalking all the discussions on hurricanes here lol and decided to actually post something. Anyway, this system does seem to have a lot of deep convection, but it's all really on one side (does that mean wind shear?) I do think this system could form as it seems to have a lot of moisture, but will probably be weak if it does anyway. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:01, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * There might be wind shear in the area, but I'm not quite sure. I still don't think it'll become much in the short term, but it could have a chance once it crosses Florida. It's possible Ida will come from this in the long run. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:01, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's past Florida and is now up to 20/40. This could become something, although I think TD10 will take the name Ida instead of this. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:09, September 18, 2015 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
This should end up being Joaquin, and if he does in fact develop it will be the first time he's been used to name a system, and will bring us up two more storms ahead of 2014. Owen 04:19, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is at 20/40 but I am not too sure about development since it is in only somewhat favorable conditions. Joaquin is possible from this, but then it'll probably only be a weakling. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:58, September 19, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
While the Atlantic continues to be boring and inactive, we're already deep into the season. This means it's about time to do retirements. Some people like Dylan might complain about starting this section early, but I'm just a bit impatient and want to start this section today. So, without further ado...
 * Nah, we're late enough into the season that I'm okay with starting retirement predictions now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:55, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * I began these predictions on August 9th (my time, not UTC) though, so that's why I was worried it might have been a bit too early and you would complain. Now, it's certainly a ripe time for these predictions. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:35, August 20, 2015 (UTC)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))


 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - It was the earliest U.S. strike on record, but the damages and deaths won't earn it retirement.


 * Bill: <font color="#77B">2.5% - 7 deaths were caused throughout its path, but damage was minimal. See you in 2021!


 * Claudette: 0% - I consider it an epic fail. The only impacts were rainfall in North Carolina (pre-development) and in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland.


 * Danny: <font color="#AAC">1% - Danny was a tiny major hurricane in a somewhat southerly location, but impacts to the Lessers are just minor at best. He'll come back in 2021.


 * Erika: 65% - Just look at what it did to Dominica. We might have an Allison 2.0 here.


 * Fred: <font color="#AAC">1% - It wasn't that bad for the Cape Verdes at all, but it was a really record breaking storm as it was the easternmost hurricane in the tropical Atlantic not counting the area where Vince formed, and it also became the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verdes since 1892. Because it wasn't that impacting, the name will almost certainly stay for 2021.


 * Grace: 0% - What a disgrace. Forgive the pun; couldn't resist.


 * Henri: 0% - No way. It failed so much, that it is very laughable.

Anyone else want to do theirs now? You can use my color idea if you like. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:17, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

My retirements: +<font color="#666666">0.5%
 * Ana:  0%  — Nah, a tropical storm


 * Bill y :  15%  — A severe tropical storm on a scale, well nah.

Rememb tu repleey, suckas! Hurricahnes are crap 20:02, September 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Claudette: <font color="#666666">0.5%  — Who would retire this?
 * Danny - 0%
 * Erika - <font color="#70A">99% - OH OH OH OH OH! ERIKA YOUR GROUNDED GROUNDED GROUNDED FOR LIFE!


 * (Retirement colors:  NaN% , <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% ,  10% ,  15% ,  20% , <font color="#4A0">25% ,  30% , <font color="#CF0">35% ,  40% , <font color="#FD0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#F80">55% ,  60% ,  65% , <font color="#B00">70% ,  75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))(thanks steve)


 * :D :D odile is back!

•An n a and Elsa :  NaN%  - meh...

•Bill Clinton : <font color="#AAC">1%  - meh...

•Claudette:  NaN%  - u wot m8?

•Danny:  NaN%  - yes. just  NO .

•Erika:  65%   - destructive weakling? dang

•Fred:  NaN%  - LOL

•Grace:  NaN%  - no comment.

•Henri:  NaN%  - Henri's bae is Felicia

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:32, August 16, 2015 (UTC)

Puffle is here with more lame science stuff Retirements at a glance!!1

Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - Surprised me to see a pre-season storm, especially with an El Niño. But no, I don't wanna build a snowman.

Bill Nye : <font color="#Acc">2.7% -Sorry Billy, you're still not ready

Claudette: <font color="#AAC">0.1%  - Affected very little land, and was the worst storm ever.

Danny Phantom : <font color="#AAC">>1%  Okay Danny, I like you, but no. Just no.

Erika: <font color="#B0D">95%  - Can you find "Dominica" on the map? No? Erika did that.

Fred: <font color="#AAC">>1%  - Other than striking the Cape-Verde area, what did Fred do?

Grace: <font color="Silver">Fail%  - Clearly Grace was not amazing. What a disgrace of a storm. Have I had enough pun with puns yet?

Henri: <font color="Silver">Fail%  - And I thought Grace and Claudette sucked...Now Felicia has a boyfriend :P

<font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  00:38, August 30, 2015 (UTC)

Other than Erika, nothing is worth retiring as of now. Storm by storm, here's my calls... That's all for now. Ryan1000 11:39, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana - 2% - Minor damage and an indirect death. It was not nothing, but not enough to retire it either.
 * Bill - 17% - 100 million in damage isn't half bad, but the U.S, let alone Texas, have seen far worse and it's probably not getting retired.
 * Claudette - 0% - Gave me something to look at for a day. That's all.
 * Danny - 0% - It was really cool to see how this managed to pull off a major hurricane in the open Atlantic despite otherwise unfavorable conditions, but like Don '11, it fell flat on it's face as soon as it hit land. The Lessers suffered next to nothing from this, other than some (beneficial) rain.
 * Erika - 95% - Actually, scratch what I said before, Erika is now officially the costliest storm in Dominica's history, surpassing Marilyn of 1995, and the 3rd deadliest, after David and the 1834 hurricane. So yeah...Allison is getting company next spring.
 * Fred - 10% - Cape Verde got off much easier with this one than they otherwise could've.
 * Grace - 0% - This storm was just downright...Dis-Grace-ful (end sarcasm).
 * Henri - -1% - It didn't just out-fail Claudette and Grace, it out-failed Failicia, and that's saying something.

My turn :D leeboy100 My Talk! 09:14, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 1%- minimal damage, 1 indirect death, this won't be enough for retirement.
 * Bill: 5%- Caused flooding and 7 deaths, but it's not likely it will be retired
 * Claudette: -0% At least we got some Atlantic activity.
 * Danny: -0% An impressive storm, I wasn't <span id="cke_bm_65S" style="display:none;">       <span id="cke_bm_67S" style="display:none;">  even expecting it to become a hurricane, let alone a category 3! It didn't hit land though,
 * Erika: 75% I know, I'm being lenient with this storm, for two reasons. One: I don't know Dominica's track record for retirement, and two: and this is the big one. There is around a 50/50 chance Erika won't be retired because of the fact that it never reached hurricane strength. Despite me bringing these up, I personally think Erika should be retired, but I won't be too surprised if it's snubbed.
 * Fred: 5% It shocked pretty much everyone with it hitting Cape Verde, but retirement is not likely.
 * Grace: 0% What a disgraceful storm that took a fall from grace and became a storm that was not so amazing. This was the coup-de-grace of fails. Too much puns?
 * Henri: 0% Not in a million years........


 * Leeboy, Gordon '94 caused most of its deaths in the less-prepared country of Haiti, who also snubbed Hanna '08. Dominica hasn't seen a storm as bad as Erika since, reportedly, David in 1979, which killed 56 people on the island. Ryan1000 16:08, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * I know Ryan. What I was saying was that there is a possibility that either a) retirement won't be requested or b) the WMO will snub it. Although, I think it deserves retirement, and will be mad (but not surprised) if it isn't.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 21:22, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan, that $16 million figure wasn't from Dominica. It was from Puerto Rico and it's mostly crop damage. According to the Prime Minister, damage in Dominica could be "tens of millions" and that the damage will set the island's development back 20 years.

While I'm at it, might as well give mine: Those are mine! 23:08, August 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1%  (It caught the US off-guard, but that, essentially, was it. Minor damage and one indirect death don't get a storm retired.
 * Bill: <font color="#359">5%  (Brought a higher death toll, but outside of teaching everyone about the brown ocean, nothing going. Still minor damage.)
 * Claudette:  0%  (Big ball of nothing.)
 * Danny:  0%  (It scared peop'le, but merely scaring people isn't enough most of the time (see: Sonamu). Danny did nothing else.)
 * Erika: <font color="#F0F">90%  (Nearly every storm that hit Dominica went on to do worse elsewhere, so this is entirely on them to ask for retirement, but likely 50 dead, tens of millions in damage, and the country set back 20 years? If those figures hold up, Allison may be getting company. Not higher because, as I said, I'm not sure about Dominica's retirement standards. EDIT: From tens of millions to $244 million? Even leaving margin of error (it being a tropical storm, Dominica's uncertain retirement standards, the stats being off), I can't bring myself to justify less than 90% now.)

(PS: This was mine. Forgot how many is a signature. <_< Jake52 (talk) 00:07, August 30, 2015 (UTC))


 * I see, my bad on that. If Erika was bad enough to set the island back 20 years on development, it's probably getting retired. Though I'm not sure what a good analogy would be for her; Klaus flooded Martinique alone, Tomas hit St. Lucia and eventually Haiti, I don't think there's been any storm before that hit Dominica hard and didn't do much afterwards. The last time a storm was this bad for Dominica was David in '79, which also ripped apart the Dominican Republic and hit the east coast as a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:33, August 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Someone edited the Wikipedia article to say Erika caused $100 million total, but a recent report says Dominica estimates that preliminary damage to basic infrastructure on the island may be as high as $226 million. Words fail me. Jake52 (talk) 06:21, September 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't recall, but Bill did cause 100 million in damage. Not negligible, but not enough by U.S. standards. If that 272 million damage total for Dominica is correct, I could definitely see Erika joining Allison as only the second TS to ever be retired in the Atlantic. I don't think any storm has hit Dominica this bad and not caused many impacts elsewhere. It's at least the worst since David. Ryan1000 20:19, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

Here's mine: I'll update this as each of the remaining storms form. Owen 16:50, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 1% - She was the earliest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States, but her impacts don't merit her removal off of the list.
 * Bill: 3% - Eh, $100 million in damages isn't huge in United States standards, he'll be back in 2021.
 * Claudette: 0% - Absolutely not.
 * Danny: 1% - He managed to impress and reach C3 status before getting shredded by wind shear before causing significant effects on the Lesser Antilles.
 * Erika: 70% - I'm being slightly reluctant with her, considering there is uncertainty behind Dominica's retirement standards. However, considering she caused at least $244 million in damages on that nation alone really convinces that Allison is more likely than not to get company next spring.
 * Fred: 10% - It could've been much worse in Cabo Verde. It's safe to say he'll be returning in 2021.
 * Grace: 0% - Was this a joke?
 * Henri: 0% - Henri, you take the award for the Atlantic's biggest failure of 2015.

Time for me to post mine:


 * Ana: 3% - A pre-season shock for the East Coast, but impacts were minor.
 * Bill: 13% - Not negligible, but not bad enough for retirement.
 * Claudette: 0% - Lol, no.
 * Danny: 1% - A fun-to-watch throwback to the days when the MDR actually was the Atlantic's main development region (at least intensity-wise), but Danny sh-t the bed just as it hit the Lessers, and it's coming back in 2021.
 * Erika: 55% - Historic impacts in Dominica, which have already been elaborated on by Ryan and Jake. The only reason I am giving Erika such a conservative percentage is pure cynicism; considering that TS retirements are as rare as they are (with disastrous storms such as Bret '93 and Matthew '10 getting snubbed), I cannot bring myself to expect one. While retirement damn well should happen here, I'm not certain that it actually will happen.
 * Fred: 14% - Cape Verde may have lucked out, but 7 people did die when Fred sank a fishing boat offshore Guinea-Bissau.
 * Grace: 0% - Lawl.
 * Henri: -14% - LOOOOOOL

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:47, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Post-season changes
You know it's bad when the latest storm's TCR is out, and we're not even halfway with the season.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:23, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah...with Claudette's TCR just released we may have to open the TCR section of the betting pools early again this year. We'll wait until later though. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is proof the Atlantic is once again sucking this year. That is, unless the NHC is beginning the TCR's earlier than usual each season no matter how active it is. That could be a possibility also, but for now, it's likely it is starting early because of the season being inactive. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:37, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana could be upgraded to a Cat 1 because of this vid:Tropical Storm Ana 01L (2015)canes are awesome (talk) 20:16, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

saying by this. An n a and Elsa was possibly a hurricane.<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:23, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * This may not be true, because Ana's windspeeds may not have been hurricane-force (over 74 mph), because just having an eye doesn't mean you have a hurricane. --<font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">Party? OH HELL YES!!!  19:30, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Bill's TCR is out. Degenerated into a remnant low a full two days before the WPC operationally declared it post-tropical. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:34, September 10, 2015 (UTC)

Replacement names
Since Erika has a chance of retirement now, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Erika? Here are some of my suggestions: If I had to pick one of these, I would pick Ellie (my sister's name). Evelyn, Ella, or Elsa would be my next choices. Ryan1000 03:53, August 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Elizabeth
 * Eve
 * Ella
 * Ellen
 * Evelyn
 * Ebony
 * Eleanor/Ellie
 * Elisha
 * Elma
 * Elsa

Elsa and Ana on the same list would be hilarious XD. I choose Elsa. leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 15:54, August 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * If Elsa is its replacement, might as well call this list the "Frozen" list. XD --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:56, September 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * I just realized 'Olaf' is being used in the Pacific this year. It really is the Frozen list :D  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 01:45, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf and Elsa would be better for Winter storms. Anyways, Eve would probably be the replacement name for Erika. I don't wanna see Erika on naming lists anymore. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  13:44, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * My first choice is Elisabeth (spelled with an 's', as I have an old friend whose name is spelled that way). If that's too long, then I pick Eve as a second choice. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:18, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * I have to agree with Puffle. 🌀 are awesome🌀 21:09, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * I also agree with Puffle and Dylan's choices, but for the sake of Frozen, I'd much prefer Elsa being the replacement :P <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:32, September 15, 2015 (UTC)