Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season/Felix

AoI: Wave coming of Africa
Again. This one actually looks a bit like Pre-Dean. It has a 1003 low associated with it, so it already has one foot out the door. Then again, it could just go poof like the last one. Shear is 20-30 knots off the coast, so it'll probably have to wait until the Central Atlantic to really develop. Cainer91 01:50, 26 August 2007 (UTC)
 * It'll be slow to form. Cyclone1 (16:55 UTC -26/08/2007)
 * I don't see squat out there, just a few showers. If it's developing, it'll be in the Pacific. -- SkyFury 00:45, 27 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Well, according to the 10:30 TWO, some slow development is possible. It lost it's low pressure center since it came off Africa, though, so it'll have to work to develop. Here's a picture of it right now . Cainer91 18:11, 27 August 2007 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
FRESH FROM THE NAVY SITE... , I'm giving it a 30% chance in developing into Felix RoswellAtup 10:05 28 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Eh, I think this one will go the way of 99L. There's just too much dry air for it to develop. If it can start building convection it may have a chance, but right now it's not looking so good. Cainer91 17:49, 28 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Doesn't look great on GOES. The models seem mixed on this, but only two really make something out of it (CMC and HWRF). I would say this is not Felix (or TD 6). IP 19:32, 28 August 2007 (UTC)


 * NHC says conditons appear favorable for "some development" over the next few days. -- SkyFury 20:37, 28 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It needs to gain convection before I starting betting ten bucks on a Felix. I've learned my lesson. That Caribbean blob looks better than 94L. (Cyclone1 logged out) 02:37, 29 August 2007 (UTC)

Looks like random convection to me :|. IP 23:09, 29 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Recent update says it could make depression by Saturday. I don't get it, but the NHC really, REALLY likes this little guy. IP 17:04, 30 August 2007 (UTC)


 * W-underground says a SHIPS run ended in a 98 knot storm at 120 hours. IP 17:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Recon flying tomorrow. Cyclone1 (21:34 UTC -30/08/2007)

Looks like there's nothing between this and TD6, but we shouldn't speak so soon, should we? IP 21:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Look at it now! Once the convection moves over the center, it will be time. IP 23:20, 30 August 2007 (UTC)


 * This thing also looks good. There are certainly a lot of stirrings out in the Atlantic. It's been a while since I've seen the TWO this long. -- SkyFury 23:27, 30 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Grr... You stole MY point! I was going to say that. Hmph.
 * Seriously though, three depression-like storms, two quite possibly become depressions soon? I think we can welcome in September, folks. IP 23:51, 30 August 2007 (UTC)
 * (LOL!)...Tis the season. -- SkyFury 00:04, 31 August 2007 (UTC)


 * ... To be wary. ; )  IP 00:15, 31 August 2007 (UTC)


 * ...Fa la la la la.... la la la laa. We could be song writers, guys. Cyclone1 (00:50 UTC -31/08/2007)

* brief chuckle* That was unnecessarily spontaneous. Bravo! IP 01:07, 31 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Wow, this thing looks a lot better than it did when I looked at it about 6 hours ago! Bob rulz 02:57, 31 August 2007 (UTC)


 * A depression could form later this morning. Say hello to Felix. Haven't seen anything this good since... well, Dean! (two in a row, eh?) IP 11:03, 31 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Special Disturbance statement from NHC. Recon flies in this afternoon to confirm a depression. I predict Felix, max cat 3, min cat 1. IP 13:22, 31 August 2007 (UTC)

06L.NONAME
NRL's calling it 06L. Looks like the recon found a depression! --Patteroast (not logged in)/209.162.45.180 20:24, 31 August 2007 (UTC)

You beat me to posting this! Gah! *Cyclone locks himself in his room to think about Patteroast and cry.* Cyclone1 (20:33 UTC -31/08/2007)


 * Anyway, looking excellent, Felix by tonight, I'd say. Cyclone1 (20:33 UTC -31/08/2007)


 * It's almost five o'clock and I haven't heard a peep from NHC. -- SkyFury 20:45, 31 August 2007 (UTC)


 * They're speaking now. Cyclone1 (20:50 UTC -31/08/2007)


 * yep and it looks like this is goign into the region where dean hit Jason Rees 20:56, 31 August 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Official. Cyclone1 (20:50 UTC -31/08/2007)
 * Meh, even it does hit where Dean did, (which it looks to be going south of Dean) it'll be barely noticed compared to Dean. NHC is only calling for a category one. Cyclone1 (21:02 UTC -31/08/2007)
 * GODDANGIT! You beat me to it! I say stronger than Cat 1, don't see why not if it takes a dissimilar path than Dean. IP 21:05, 31 August 2007 (UTC)
 * My personal prediction is that it'll reach hurricane status, but be just over Cat 2 status. - Enzo Aquarius 21:06, 31 August 2007 (UTC)
 * The people over there are probably going "Please God, no!" Indeed, we could have another hurricane hitting the Yucatan area. Given what the NHC is giving us now, I'd say Enzo's assessment is a good one. Interaction with Hondurus could weaken it though. -- SkyFury 23:35, 31 August 2007 (UTC)

You can always trust Eric to finish a sentence with "Please God, no!" and start the next one with 'indeed'. Seriously, though, that's probably spot on. IP 23:52, 31 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Do not question my superior diction! *muffled chuckle* Seriously, I'm a fiction writer, what else can I say? That weakening by Honduras could be a painful one. Remember, Fifi made landfall in Belize but killed 8,000 people in Hondurus. -- SkyFury 00:00, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It probably won't be that bad. IP 00:11, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, it all depends on landfall and angle. If it Ediths-out, then even a strong hurricane clipping the northeast coast wouldn't be a huge deal. But if it pulls a Fifi, or worse, a Mitch, by moving northeast of Honduras and then curving back west-south-westward. That's when the flooding starts. Just climatology speaking. Cyclone1 (00:49 UTC -1/09/2007)

Newest NRL image still has it tagged as Six, but the hover shows that winds are now 35kt. Isn't that enough for them to call it "Felix" now, or are they hoping to not repeat the 16E/Pilar debacle? Jake52 My island 08:46, 1 September 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Felix
Nevermind, the 5 am update on NHC gives the depression the name and ups it to Tropical Storm strength. Predicted to become a hurricane, like another Felix before it (read: every one of them). Jake52 My island 09:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yup, he's looking pretty good too. I really should've gotten up at five.... IP 13:59, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * HWRF gives it a scary potential track... INTO THE GULF (gasps)... PAST JAMAICA (bigger gasps) RIGHT OVER KINGSTON (mass fainting) HIT RANGE COULD BE FROM HOUSTON TO NEW ORLEANS (audience death toll exceeds 700). Scary thought, but not likely (at this point). IP 14:17, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Hard to say, that 4th/5th day track change to the northwest by NOAA could mean a northern-central impact in Mexico if it continues on past Belize. It's only the beginning of Felix though, anything could change. - Enzo Aquarius 14:46, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Felix is now predicted to become a Major Cat. 3 Hurricane in five days... RoswellAtup 14:57, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Expected to become a hurricane period in less than a day. :S - Enzo Aquarius 14:58, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The first Seppy storm isn't a dud, so I'd probably say this season is a lot less dud-esque than I thought : ). It's already better (worse?) than 2006. IP 15:24, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, if we go by last year's season, up to Florence there was only two hurricanes (Ernesto and Florence). Compared to this year, if Felix becomes a hurricane, it will be semi-par with last year (Except that Ernesto only made Cat 1 while Dean this year made it up to Cat 5). So far, 2007 has been more 'intense', per se, than 2006. - Enzo Aquarius 15:38, 1 September 2007 (UTC)

And based on the average season, we still are above normal, and if we last through October (unlike 2006) and November (again, unlike 2006) we'll have much more. IP 16:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC)

Now at 999 hPa, and 70 mph winds. Looks like it'll be upgraded at five or eight. Say hello to the second hurricane of the season! IP 17:48, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Damn, Felix is taking off. We're having us a friggin' tropical siesta down there. That pressure is high for a storm that's almost a hurricane. In the Caribbean, those pressures usually get down pretty low (Dean, Wilma, Gilbert, Mitch, Ivan, y'all know those guys). Can't say this is good news for anyone in the Caribbean. Dean's little brother is getting awfully angry down there. -- SkyFury 17:59, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The pressure might be higher because it only recently developed, but that doesn't explain the windspeeds. I wonder what the forecast advisory will say. At this rate, it's a shoe-in for second [major] hurricane of the year. IP 18:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC)

An old adage of mine could be holding up: BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER -- SkyFury 18:32, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Christ, man, you don't need to point it out! What if the people in the Honduras are watching us? (Imagine that scene). GFDL strong Cat 2, Ships strong Cat 3, and potential Gulf storm, as well as (hopefully not) a possible Fifi repeat. Beware indeed. BTW, it almost looks like a banding eye is trying to form. IP 19:19, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * 10 bucks this makes hurricane JUST before Henriette, and becomes more intense. Both are showing signs of development and a potential banding eye. Felix has higher winds, Henrietta has lower pressure. It's a race all right. IP 19:39, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Mexico's getting attacked from both sides here. Felix doesn't look like it plans to play nice. It's fast turning ugly. Henriette's not going away and Felix could hit Belize as a four before it's all said and done. Felix as an eyelash away from a hurricane and could be upgraded at any time. The pressure's aren't dropping but the storm just keeps looking better and better on the satellite. With 98L out in the Atlantic, Dean earlier this year and now Felix, this season could be a Caribbean war. The United States has yet to see a storm stronger than 35 knots. -- SkyFury 21:06, 1 September 2007 (UTC)

Jezum Craw! The first access I get to a computer and I see a possible hurricane?! Man, this year is kicking up... Cyclone1 (22:26 UTC -1/09/2007)


 * THIS JUST IN! Recon just released a Vortex Data Message saying they have confirmed 77kt winds in the NE quadrant. Folks, we have a hurricane. Cyclone1 (23:39 UTC -1/09/2007)

Hurricane Felix
Official as of 8pm. Cyclone1 (23:51 UTC -1/09/2007)


 * Yup, batten down the hatches folks, here we go again. -- SkyFury 23:55, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * What's worse is that the Discussion for 5 pm (before Flying Felix was upped to Hurricane strength) mentioned a high possibility for this one to rapidly intensify. After what Dean did, that's not exactly the best thing you want to hear. Jake52 My island 00:20, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Under any circumstances that's not what you want to hear, unless it's out at sea. All four Felixs that have ever formed have now become hurricanes and only one of the other three wasn't a major hurricane. And he continues to look better organized every time I look at the floater imagery. -- SkyFury 01:08, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * If Felix does make Cat. 5 by landfall, this would make two Cat. 5/landfalls in a row. Going to be an interesting season if this happens. - Enzo Aquarius 01:30, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Somewhat doubt it, but in the tropics almost anything is possible, 2005 taught me that. I think it's going to be an interesting season regardless. 98L is looking awfully greedy out there. -- SkyFury 01:34, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Uh oh! Rapid intensification underwent. Felix is now officially a higher-end category 2 and is predicted to hit Category 4 strength. This looks like it will get VERY ugly and PLEASE let's not get a re-Dean. It hasn't even been a month! Jake52 My island 09:06, 2 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Underwent? It's still undergoing... We will probably have a category three by 11am. Cyclone1 (12:23 UTC -2/09/2007)


 * Nope, no category three yet, but 105, 980. Extremely high pressures... Cyclone1 (14:43 UTC -2/09/2007)


 * Raw DVORAK number right now is 6.6. This equates to... 150 mph. However, pressure is abnormally high, so the winds are probably lower than that. It's definitely a Category Three, though. undefinedundefined 17:27, 2 September 2007 (UTC)

It is also extremely small. Joan back in 88 was an abnormally small cyclone also, it had a well defined eye as a tropical storm. Cyclone1 (17:33 UTC -2/09/2007)


 * Umm, Felix. Feeelix. Behave yourself, Felix. Naughty storms go to Hell. 90 knots and counting and it looks a hair better than that (95-100 I'd say). It's really close to South America. A 125-knot Category 4 approaching Honduras is not a situation I want to contemplate right now. The predicted track and intensity, as well as the size of the storm, reminds me a little bit of Iris in 2001 (which used the same name list) and also of Greta in 1978, neither of which were a lot of fun. -- SkyFury 17:51, 2 September 2007 (UTC)