Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC)

Future start
Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC
 * We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC)

And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC)

I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC)

Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC)

Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC)

1st CSU Forecast
Here it is! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU Forecast
It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

A link is here. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC)

There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Near Nicaragua
This AOI looked pretty well organized during the duration of today. It has been moving towards the {C southeast at a steady pace after blossoming this morning east of Belize and north of Honduras. The upper level winds in the area are in a blaze and it is hard to determine the future track of this AOI. Personally I don't see development, but there's a lot of people (especially on Wunderground) who see development from this. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:54, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't expect a lot from this system as of now. No major global model picks this system up. Climatologically speaking, the formation of this system is highly improbable. Darren 23 Edits 02:41, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think it has a shot look what happen with Beryl it didn`t develop in the caribbean because there was a lot of wind shear but it look like winde shear will abate in 72 -96 hours if it can hold on then we might have a td or another ts in our hands.Allanjeffs 02:53, May 28, 2012 (UTC)

It's not in the same conditions Beryl was in, but then again, the conditions for Beryl did get better over time. We'll have to see what this will do. Ryan1000 03:06, May 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * After wandering around the western Carribbean for a few days, it appears that the AOI is starting to wane. It's making landfall in the Cancun area. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:09, May 30, 2012 (UTC)

Not looking likely we'll see Chris. We had a brief incredible start, but the hot streak ends here. Ryan1000 21:38, May 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * Upper level low over western Yucatan and surface low over eastern Yucatan moving northwards into GoM. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 17:43, May 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * Chris will likely not come from this.What I look is that the GFS has Chris in 300 hours making a low that is in the pacific come northward and eat. it its like Arlene and Alex form in the past years maybe we will see Chris until then ,and even though is 300 hours the GFS was predicting Beryl formation like 250 before she form so we will see.another thing if Chris form in the situation that the GFS is portraying then Chris will move into the USA and not into Mexico like the last years.Allanjeffs 22:57, May 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * In case you don't know what Allan is talking about, to the right is the GFS forecast for a predicted storm that would emerge into the Caribbean and strike the US, along with its timing. The black line represents it as a regular low and the blue as a tropical depression. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:11, May 31, 2012 (UTC)

If anything I hope that future storm becomes nothing more than a rain maker like Alberto of 2006, but we had an incredible start to the season and if this forecast turns out to be correct, we could be on par with 1887 for earliest third storm ever. Ryan1000 23:23, May 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually, if Chris forms as the GFS says so, 1887 will still hold the record with its third storm forming on June 11, but it would beat the second place spot, which is held by an unnamed hurricane (also known as Escuminac hurricane, one of Canada's deadliest hurricanes) which formed on June 18, 1959. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:09, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * 300 hours??? Really??? Are y'all really taking forecasts at super super super long range with a grain of salt? GFS is, I would say, a decent model, but even at say... 7 days, I would be less than inclined to suggest that without any concrete evidence/atmospheric pattern in favor of development. I'm not saying that this may not happen, I'm just saying that with the low resolution of GFS at that timeframe, climatology, and the fact that it's super super long range, means that this, as of now, has about a near 0% chance of happening, as the NHC always says. Darren 23 Edits 01:54, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * We've seen long-shot models go bullseye and it happens, but with this one I'm not putting too much effort into it. When the GFS gets into the timeframe of better resolution and the models start showing it, then I would take it more seriously. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:22, June 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting it to develop right now, of course, but it's something to watch in the long run. Ryan1000 19:11, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

The AOI is now steamrolling into Florida, bringing in a bunch of tropical moisture and strong squalls. The National Weather Service predicts that as much as 2 in/hr rainfall rates are likely in localized areas. Once it moves through Florida, it should be absorbed by the cold front that is currently causing problems in the Washington D.C. area. --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:22, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * The cold front swept through Florida, basically shredding apart much of the AOI. While most of the moisture from the AOI is now spewed over much of the area where Alberto and Beryl once existed, I think we can call of the AOI now and consider it pretty much dead. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:43, June 2, 2012 (UTC)

the GFS is showing Carlotta and Chris like a week from here i think.Allanjeffs 23:40, June 3, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
This system is gathering a lot of attention on the grounds of Wunderground. The system lies in the heat of the Gulf and has been there since yesterday. While there is still a lot of shear now, shear tendency is on the downcline and shear has gone down 10 knots since yesterday. This storm is worth warranting. CobraStrike  (t)(b)(c) 17:35, June 5, 2012 (UTC)

The CMC and Nogaps are developing this when it reach the east coast but the Gfs and the Euro don`t that would be amazing if it really happens but I have a lot of doubts.Allanjeffs 20:15, June 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * The models don't develop this, they develop another system that will split off of a trough that will likely shear this system to death as it moves to the east coast. Yqt1001 21:52, June 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * Saw this about 3 days ago and immediately dismissed it as non-tropical. And, models are developing it as a cold-core system. Models are not developing anything warm (or even shallow core) in the next week or so in the Atlantic. Darren 23 Edits 22:39, June 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not looking too likely we'll see much out of this storm. I'm more baffled at the fact we're seeing Kuena in the SWIO at this time of year. Mawar is starting to wrap up. Ryan1000 03:31, June 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * I just want to say that the Gfs,Euro and ECMWF all has tropical storm Chris from and AOI in the gulf of course is not this one but we need to watch out and we may have Carlotta also as a strong MJO pulse is coming to eastern pacific and Atlantic it is stronger than the one that help develop Alberto and Beryl of course this is just what models are hinting but is some to watch out for later on.Allanjeffs 19:40, June 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's possible, and the conditions are there and are setting up for something like this to happen, but again, it's a long range forecast and is well past what is "reliable". There are many indications that suggest that we will be seeing some disturbed weather in this region, but it's just too far out to know for sure (unless you're psychic). Darren 23 CWC 20:31, June 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * I normally wouldn't buy anything past 4-5 days, but yeah, it's something worth considering. I wouldn't expect us to get to Debby later this month (but if we do, we're ahead of 2005), but I would expect to see Chris form here somewhere, and maybe get to Carlotta or Daniel before June is out in the EPac. It'll happen sometime in the next week or two, if it won't in the next two days. Ryan1000 22:31, June 8, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Florida Panhandle
Okay... this is almost certainly not going to form, but this MCV around a low pressure system is spinning up and has a Near 0%. Just worth noting. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:03, June 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah... just a random MCV this time of the year. What a waste of that energy writing and making the TWO and GTWO. Next!Darren 23 CWC 18:39, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Who knows? It may pull a Jose! 70.126.74.7 19:10, June 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe, but I doubt it... Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:14, June 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * There is next to no way this system will develop. However, the waters might cause an increase in the percentage. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:18, June 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * And so it slammed into Florida and died. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:58, June 15, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Bermuda
The GTWO has flashed up today yet another storm, a non-tropical low sitting right on top of Bermuda has a 10% chance of formation. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:02, June 17, 2012 (UTC)

It looks okay now, though I don't know if it will develop. Arlene of 1999 developed in this area of the Atlantic at this time; maybe this AOI could do something like her. Arlene developed farther northeast than any other June storm on record. Ryan1000 17:11, June 17, 2012 (UTC)

Unless is up in the next TWO I doubt it will ever form.Allanjeffs 01:26, June 18, 2012 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:03, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Up to 20% it still has a chance.Allanjeffs 06:00, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not too likely at this point. It's turning frontal in nature. Ryan1000 06:35, June 18, 2012 (UTC)

30%. Looks like a Cindy-like system. 70.126.74.7 12:28, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * They're also calling it a "well-defined" tropical low. If it becomes named at a parallel north of 41.5N, it will become the furthest north naming of a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:11, June 18, 2012 (UTC)

Come on Chris...need something to track that's NOT affecting land! 70.126.74.7 15:53, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Agree with the last comment and we may have invest 96L in the Caribean today.Allanjeffs 17:14, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think that the low is organizing..wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a subtropical storm over the next 12 hours. 70.126.74.7 17:33, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Up to 50% we may have our third name storm of this.Allanjeffs 17:47, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Any intensity predictions? I say max intensity for this will be 60 mph. 70.126.74.7 18:21, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * My intensity prediction is 45 knots/996 mb, and I have a forecast here. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:28, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa, it got it's act together now; now it even has a shot at hurricane status. Danny in 2003 was the northernmost pre-August hurricane ever, but maybe this storm (future Chris) could beat him. Ryan1000 19:14, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * It might have a slight window, but it looks like 95L is starting to head into cooler waters but yeah 95L is getting its act together. 70.126.74.7 19:41, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it will probably peak at 60 to 65 mph and that is because windshear will be low in the next day or two.Allanjeffs 19:45, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * It detached from its parent frontal system and got its work together. The models are in a consensus for track, but for intensity they are spewed around.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:04, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * CODE RED! 70.126.74.7 23:40, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * 60%. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:39, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * This system is so close to becoming tropical. In fact, even a slight increase in thunderstorm activity could result in Chris. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:58, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * I swear this is Chris right now. From what i'm seeing, there's nothing hindering it right now. If it's not upgraded, then I think it will pull a 94L (September 2011) and be reclassified in post-season. Ryan1000 00:05, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * They're (the NHC) probably staying under the "maintaining convection" rule of thumb for classifying tropical cyclones, which is why they're just waiting. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:14, June 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Convection is collapsing right now, down to 50%. On the flip side, the western caribbean AOI is now up to 10%. Ryan1000 09:17, June 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now this situation is starting to resemble the 94L scenario last September. It's now or never. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:50, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Its beginning to stall out a bit... possibly heading for the southeast turn like Bertha did in 2008 and what the models suggest. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:38, June 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its now or never.Allanjeffs 14:44, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

It's starting to look like its other brothers, sisters, and cousins in the northeast part of the Atlantic. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:55, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

92L and 95L both have a chance to be upgraded in post-season (if 95L doesn't become Chris operationally), and I think 96L has a chance in the long run. And even if this becomes Chris, it will only be brief before it succumbs to wind shear and stable air. Ryan1000 19:11, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chris
Up on ATCF. Looks like it developed at the last minute! Yqt1001 19:52, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wow... for me this is actually pretty surprising. It had a window to develop and it did. It looks like many other polar lows, invests, and storms in the past that were not classified operationally and post-operationally. I think Chris could be a step forward in the classification in tropical systems.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:58, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah!! we have Chris the third name storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season has come to us.AL, 03, 2012061918,, BEST, 0, 395N, 580W, 40, 1005, TS.Allanjeffs 20:00, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Can't wait for the forecast track. Cyclone10 E-Mail


 * This is great! Third earliest forming third storm! -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Chris, is the third earliest forming third storm of a year in recorded history, behind 1887 and 1959. It is also the most northerly forming June storm on record. The first advisory pins Chris at 45 mph. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:01, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

Well, hello Chris! I don't think the storm will stay for long, probably a day or two. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:28, June 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looks like Chris came through. I thought it would develop, but it's only going to be brief anyways. It should die out in the next 12-18 hours or so. Still, this is impressive. 2012 has had such an unusually fast start; we're already 2 weeks ahead of 2005, and Debby could still come from the AOI in the Caribbean. Regarding the track, it is expected to last until tomorrow until it becomes extratropical, maybe turning towards Newfoundland 3-4 days down the road. The fact it's tropical now surprises me a bit more; I was expecting subtropical storm Chris. Ryan1000 22:38, June 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I was surprised too. Chris doesn't really look like it's tropical.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  22:52, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Oh well, NHC kept it that way. Oh and leave the editing format like this, it's much cleaner than the source version. The Active storms header can keep that format though. Ryan1000 23:16, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah... doesn't look tropical, but as long as its named, its named.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:20, June 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I actually think is more tropical than subtropical anyways its name and now we are waiting for Debby.only one Chris had been a hurricane and that was 1994 I think they say that this name is curse because almost all Chris are weak or die rapidly.Allanjeffs 23:54, June 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Allan, although there's only been one "Hurricane Chris", you shouldn't forget that all Beryl's have never reached hurricane intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:02, June 20, 2012 (UTC)

I mentioned earlier Beryl was one of only 3 storms in the history of the Atlantic basin that never reached hurricane strength every time it was used. Ana and Arthur were the other two (although there was a storm or two before 1979 named Anna that did become a hurricane). Erick was the only such storm in the history of the East Pacific. Ryan1000 01:09, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * New advisory out... no changes, but Chris now has a distinct comma shape.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 03:24, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * If it continues to organize maybe a peak of 50 to 60mph is not out of the question.Allanjeffs 04:55, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I don't think this will get too organized. Cyclone10 E-Mail  05:00, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * It should become extratropical soon, like I said sometime later today, or if it goes long enough, maybe even tomorrow. But atmospheric conditions aren't conducive for this to grow past where it is now, if not 5-10 mph stronger. If Chris becomes a hurricane, I will scream. Ryan1000 06:26, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah... its not expected to last long as a tropical system and should meet up with the whole frontal complex over there. Anyways, didn't Bertha (2008) become a hurricane around these parallels? -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:06, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50 mph now expect to peak at 60 like I predict.Allanjeffs 14:44, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * @CS:Yes, Bertha of 2008 did become a hurricane at this latitude, but the conditions back in 2008 were different. Chris isn't in the same environment as Bertha. The extratropical cyclone over Chris will absorb it sooner or later. It won't get that much stronger. Just because it has an eyelike feature doesn't mean it will become a hurricane, per what we've seen with Grace '09 and Omeka '10, that's unlikely in the environment it's in. Ryan1000 16:39, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * but its not impossible either anyways if this becomes a hurricane it will remind me of Shary of 2010.Allanjeffs 16:52, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * AL, 03, 2012062018,, BEST, 0, 382N, 502W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 30, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M, 12, NEQ, 90, 140, 220, 60.Allanjeffs 19:29, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Shary was much further south, in better conditions for strengthening. I know it's not impossible for Chris to become a hurricane, but I personally wouldn't count on it. If it does, it would remind me more of Danny of 2003 than Shary, a similar storm to Chris, but formed in July. Ryan1000 17:04, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Winds are now at 50 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:53, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Probably 60 mph in the next advisory or if he is lucky 65.AL, 03, 2012062018,, BEST, 0, 382N, 502W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 30, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M, 12, NEQ, 90, 140, 220, 60Allanjeffs 19:33, June 20, 2012 (UTC)

New advisory has upped Chris to 60 mph... but likely not to become a hurricane. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:32, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I see a peak between 65 to 70 mph at most and if a miracle happen 75mph is not out of the question.Allanjeffs 19:34, June 20, 2012 (UTC)

NHC still says 50, but likely to change soon. Still heading out to sea. Ryan1000 20:06, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now 60 they said it has already peak.Allanjeffs 21:01, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think it will peak at 65 mph or 70Allanjeffs 21:19, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think Chris has peaked, like what NHC said. Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:21, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I also think Chris has peaked. It may have an eye but that doesn't mean much at this latitude. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:05, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it still has time to strength maybe the 11pm bump him to 65mph that is the last advisory he have to strength.Allanjeffs 22:14, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * He might, but i'd keep him below hurricane strength. Ryan1000 22:18, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Likely to bail extrop soon. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:23, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * In my opinion, Chris has reached his peak intensity. I doubt we'll see a Hurricane Chris. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:15, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Chris has stregthened by 2 mbar. Cyclone10 E-Mail  01:48, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yes, but we'll have to wait for the next advisory in a few minutes to see the official say. Likely due to baroclinic affects. Anyways, T numbers are up to 3.5 but I think it has peaked, give or take 5 mph. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:45, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Nah, 11 pm advisory keeps it at 60. No hurricane here. From this point on out, it should be weakening. Ryan1000 03:05, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Chris is definitely making a run to hurricane status right now looks best than ever it has.Allanjeffs 06:09, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Chris reminds me on Bertha. Not because of appearance or the like but due to his stubbornly ignoring of what the NHC tells him to do ;-) --88.103.177.44 13:00, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Chris
Well hello there. Chris - another NHC defier. 987 mbar: 65 kts.... Who knew - it has a nearly complete eyewall and excellent structure. AL, 03, 2012062112,, BEST, 0, 405N, 439W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHRIS, M, The advisory is not out, should be shortly, but Chris is a hurricane. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:24, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * The frig?!? When I saw "HURRICANE CHRIS" on the Active Storms header, I thought it was vandalism. Looking forward to the 11am advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 14:35, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's official!!! Fcst/advisory is out - we officially have our first hurricane of the season, two months and six storms ahead of last year. Talk about a belated birthday present (my birthday was yesterday)! --HurricaneMaker99 14:54, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

It's turning extratropical right now as convection shifts toward the north quad, but, what a storm! -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 16:34, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">This was a big surprise...I never expected this. Not only is it on par with Danny of 2003 and just behind storm 1 of 1893 as the northernmost pre-August hurricane on record in the Atlantic, but it's also the first June hurricane in only two years, and the second northernmost June hurricane on record. As far as i'm concerned, it's also one of only a small handfull of hurricanes to exist in the open Atlantic ocean in June. Another was Brenda in 1968. Ryan1000 17:04, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

This morning Chris looked like a MH without the deep convection. It was nearly perfect, in fact I wouldn't be surprised if it was to be upgraded in post season, but here it is in the operational season! +1 to the NHC for finally doing something right. :P Anyways, it's pretty much close to extratropical again, but this storm has to be Vince-esque as far as unusual behaviour goes. Definitely comes close to Kuena for most interesting storm of 2012. Might even beat Alberto in the epic category and Beryl if it doesn't get upgraded to a hurricane in post season. Yqt1001 19:12, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Re. Beryl... I've changed my mind. Now I'm gonna hope she isn't upgraded to the first-ever Hurricane Beryl - it seems so much bolder for a storm to set so many records without having to reach hurricane strength :P Good luck in 2018, Beryl! --HurricaneMaker99 19:38, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, WHAT A SURPRISE! I expected Chris to have dissipated by now, but I come and see he has become a hurricane! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:50, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * I have few hopes for Beryl to be upgraded, but I have my hopes high for 96L to form and, well, unfortunately, an active season to come. Ryan1000 20:01, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * I knew Chris would become our first hurricane of the season yeah.Allanjeffs 00:28, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chris (2nd Time)
It may have had a short hurricane excursion, but Chris will forever be a reminder of what storms can do at this latitude. NHC advisory not out yet (in about 2 hours) but ATCF identifies Chris at 60 kts (70 mph). Should become extratropical shortly. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:00, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Time to say goodbye to Chris. Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:11, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well, this is the end of one of my favorite storms ever! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:14, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Officially back to a TS. Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:45, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

I'm surprised all the convection is staying around the COC and not flying off to the northeast like most northerners. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:51, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

I was actually expecting him to reach hurricane intensity anyways future Debby looks a scary storm.Allanjeffs 01:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

New advisory is out! Winds are down to 65 mph, but the pressure has actually dropped to 987 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:54, June 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's in a Baroclinic zone.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:56, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Doomed to be extratropical by later today or early Saturday. Ryan1000 06:00, June 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * thee most interested storm of this season in my opinion Bye Chris I really have fun tracking you probably dead in the next advisory.Allanjeffs 06:22, June 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah... I'm surprised it hadn't become extratropical earlier. It's still maintaining its remnant circulation and all and doesn't look too frontal. Who knows, it might just become a remnant low. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:07, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris
It was a fun storm to watch, but now all eyes are on 96L. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:51, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

Well, even though Chris was nothing impactwise, this will be a very memorable storm meteorologically. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:14, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Hats off, Chris, and hello to Debby. Ryan1000 16:52, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Chris is still here! :O Cyclone10  E-Mail  19:32, June 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I actually think that Beryl may be upgrade to hurricane intensity in post analysis.Allanjeffs 04:52, June 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think that will happen. IMO it's more likely to pull a Barry (2001) and stay below hurricane strength, than pull a Gaston (2004) and be upgraded. Ryan1000 03:00, June 27, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Western Caribbean
Part of the monsoonal trough.... the large area of convection in the Western Caribbean Sea certainly warrants attention. Associated with a low pressure area north of Nicaragua with 1008 mbar. Could be the next invest. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:36, June 18, 2012 (UTC)

If this one develops, we could already be at Debby before the months done...just amazing! 70.126.74.7 17:49, June 18, 2012 (UTC)

Should this become Debby, this will be, BY FAR, the earliest 4th named storm on record (assuming 95L becomes Chris), beating Hurricane Dennis in 2005 (which formed on July 5). However, I don't know if this will develop. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:31, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks a little ominous, but I think it will develop. I think we could see two Arlene like storms in the next day or two. 95L looks like it will pull an Arlene (1999), except a little further north, and this storm closely resembles the precursor to 2005's Arlene, but a little later in the year. I expect this storm to head north, paralleling (or making landfall) in Florida to the Carolinas before heading out to sea. It might become Debby in that time frame. Ryan1000 19:22, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * If it forms I think it will likely become hurricane Debby.Allanjeffs 19:41, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * probably a yellow circle in the 8pm update.Allanjeffs 19:53, June 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah... its starting to wrap and all. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:56, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * No yellow circle yet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:58, June 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * If this storm becomes Hurricane Debby, it could be the earliest hurricane to ever hit Cuba, supassing Storm 3 of 1886. Assuming it hits them as a hurricane, before June 29. Ryan1000 00:12, June 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Code yellow...at 10%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, June 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's still generally elongated... once it detaches and starts to become more uniform it can start to stregnthen. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:40, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

It'll come eventually, but probrably only become a tropical storm when it eventually heads out to sea. Ryan1000 22:43, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

What? Out to sea? This isn't going out to sea... TropicalAnalystwx13 03:37, June 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I didn't mean it was a fish right now...I know it's affecting the northwestern Caribbean islands as we speak, but if it doesn't develop as it heads northward towards Florida in the next few days, the models do develop it as it heads eastward after that, away from the U.S. east coast. That's a bit far out, maybe too far to tell, but we'll see. Ryan1000 06:26, June 20, 2012 (UTC)

Now at 20% in marginally favorable conditions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:27, June 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It'll probrably become Debby. As I said, if it doesn't develop when it heads near Tampa 3-4 days from now (I think it will be Debby by then), then it will head away from the U.S. and could develop by then. It's still too far out to tell for sure, but rains are going to be threatening either way...Cuba has already had a saturated ground from heavy rainfall earlier this year, and therefore this AOI could pose a flood hazard for that area before it becomes named. Ryan1000 20:11, June 20, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan the other half of the models are taking this into Texas so Florida only has half of probability of being hit I actually prefer the solution of the storm making landfall in Florida and leaving out to sea but Texas and lousiana could also be hit by this storm.Allanjeffs 21:00, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * True, but GFS and ECMWF currently indicate it will likely hit near Tampa as a tropical storm 3-4 days from now and head out to sea after that. I do know some of the models take it to Louisiana and Texas, but I tend to stick to GFS and ECMWF, especially the latter, since it's usually the closest to what NHC says, or it has been in the past several years. But this AOI is still a long way out from developing into Debby; the models are constantly changing their forecasts. As I said earlier, we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 22:18, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I hear the recon is already scheduled for this on Friday. They must see this as a big threat to the US. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:26, June 20, 2012 (UTC)

30%! Cyclone10 E-Mail  23:36, June 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wow... the NHC is really pinning this one. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:39, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * could be ts Debby or Hurricane Debby.Allanjeffs 23:46, June 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it could bring some beneficial rain for the southeast more than anything, but none of the models seem to bomb this thing in the GOM. It certainly has a high chance of becoming named in the next few days, but I don't think Debby-to-be will be a very destructive event for the folks on the gulf coast in the next week. I will say though, 2005's record for earliest 4th storm probrably won't survive past this year. This would not only beat Dennis by many days if it develops, but it would also be the only time ATL ever had 4 storms before July. What an incredible start to the season. I just can't believe this. Ryan1000 03:05, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50%! Cyclone10 E-Mail  17:40, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Models are split between Texas and Florida. Cyclone10 E-Mail  17:56, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm surprised they haven't tagged this as an invest yet. Hurricane Hunter recon is already scheduled for tomorrow and at 50% they should do something about it. Probably will be tagged in the next few hours. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:59, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Now it is!-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  18:04, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks very impressive. Here comes Debby...Ryan1000 18:20, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * All the models have been tagging this for a while... going to be interesting to see where it goes. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:40, June 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some of the models are just scaring me from this storm. Others just develop it into a TS and make it hit Florida and out to sea, as I mentioned earlier. Hopefully that happens, but I have bad feelings about Debby-to-be. We should be on the lookout. Ryan1000 18:51, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

Once it gets organized we should finally see some consensus between the models. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:23, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It'll be hard to reach a concensus for track, but for intensity, that'll be easy once it organizes. It could end up anywhere from the Tampa area in Florida to Louisiana and Texas. Rain will be beneficial for crop growth, but bad considering it could flood parts of the southeast. Ryan1000 20:04, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think this will easily become Tropical Storm Debby. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:10, June 21, 2012 (UTC)

Shear is expected to drop later in time. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:54, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's now 70% - second code red of the year. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:45, June 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Lot's of talk going around about this being the storm that could...become a better Don. I don't have much hope for a hurricane, but it seems possible if not even likely. For now though, we'll have to look for development when recon goes in 18 hours from now. Yqt1001 00:23, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * If this go into Texas I can see easily a cat 1 I think I will not be here to much like today because there was a shortcut of light over much of the city and there will be another in a few hours and another tomorrow.sorry my friends maybe I will not see the development f td 4.Allanjeffs 01:16, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's doomed to be Debby. Tomorrow 2005's earliest 4th storm record will be broken, if not the day after. I'm more concerned to see where NHC thinks this will head. I still think western Florida is the area in question from future Debby, more likely than Louisiana and Texas IMO. GFS takes it directly into Tampa bay. Ryan1000 01:21, June 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * We would probably have td 4 tomorrow afternoon and after this the GFS ad I think another model are developing a td/ts near Africa so that is the other place we need to watch for something to come out after Debby dies.Allanjeffs 01:39, June 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * 96L is in really good conditions - its right under an anticyclone directly positioned over it. What I think is that if 96L (Debby)'s strong-case scenario in my opinion is becoming a category 2 borderline 3. The weak-case scenario will likely be a strong tropical storm. I think it will be a 90-100 mph hurricane. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:47, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hopefully we'll get the best-case scenario. And after this we have Bertha Jr? God, at this rate we could match up to 2005, at least if it keeps going on and on and on. Ryan1000 03:15, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Still at 70%, but could develop at anytime. And don't tell me we're already talking about Ernesto! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:15, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

Yes, yes we are. This season just won't quit. And it's only the start of the year. I guess after we started the dead basin thing of 2010, and kept it in 2011, mother nature said "there, you happy?" for this year. But i'm more surprised than anything else. Ryan1000 16:52, June 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Some models are picking up on pre-Bertha, and this could be interesting. And actually, if we keep at this pace, we'll FAR outpace the 2005 season. At this time in 2005, there had been only Arlene (Bret came on the 28th), but now we have a potential Debby and models yapping at an Ernesto before we start July. If Ernesto forms by July 4 (the 4th storm record held by Dennis), then who knows what'll happen.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:44, June 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * I can't tell if we'll rocket past 2005 still...I mentioned earlier in my blog post on worldwide predictions of 2012 that I still expected 11-17 named storms, but given the extraordinarily active start we had, it becomes difficult to predict the total number of storms. Some years, like 2005, continued on at this rate and went down in the hall of fame, but other years like this, such as 1968 and 1908, had active starts but slow ends. We'll have to wait and see what 2012 throws at us. Hopefully we slow down from here on out; who knows what would happen if we got a very destructive season during election year (2004 and 2008 to name a few), but 2005 was worse than both of them. The most vulnerable cities in the United states include Miami, New Orleans, and New York City, the former two of which have already been hit, along with cities like Houston, Tampa, Jacksonville, Savannah, and Charleston. Hopefully none of those doomsday disasters happen this year; it's been active enough already. Ryan1000 18:46, June 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * 96L is amazing how it looks right now I say 80 to 90% in the next update.sorry for not being in here but lights have been on and off around the city.we could possibly have Debby by tomorrow and there is an interested area north of Hispañola.Allanjeffs 20:30, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 80%. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:50, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

up to 80% td 4 is coming.Allanjeffs 23:52, June 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this storm later today, and if it finds a closed circulation, here comes Debby. It should develop anytime now, and the folks near Tampa are likely going to see a strong TS or hurricane. However, if the front expected to recurve it outruns the storm like ECMWF suggests, it may reverse direction and head westward towards Texas, possibly, if that happens, hitting Corpus Christi or Brownsville as a sizeable category 2 or even 3 hurricane. Ryan1000 03:15, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">96L is 90% and has TS winds. Cyclone10 E-Mail  13:11, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

Is that really necessary NHC? It's Debby and they know it. I swear it should be a TS right now. They have to wait till the last minute for it to be Debby. Anyways, it hopefully will only deliver some rain to Florida and not be more serious than that. It should recurve from the front pretty soon. Ryan1000 13:59, June 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * By now it seems that Debby should only strengthen into a tropical storm. And I agree with you there Ryan - its Debby by now. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:08, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, everyone's praising the GFS as we speak, but the ECMWF (euro) model, which is the most reliable one we have, strongly suggests the ridge will rebuild in the next day or two, and they take it into Corpus Christi, Texas as a fairly powerful hurricane 5-6 days down the road. So Florida isn't certain yet, but hopefully that happens. Debby could pull an Alberto (2006), but she also seems to want to pull a Celia (1970). That's not good news for the folks over in Texas. Hopefully that won't happen. Ryan1000 14:28, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * we probably have ts Debby right now if not a td at least it will be interesting which forecast track the NHC used to the east or to the west.Allanjeffs 17:31, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Btw if Debby becomes a hurricane in the Gulf we could possibly see our first shot of retirement of this seasonAllanjeffs 17:49, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * They just need to find a well defined center and we have Debby.Allanjeffs 18:00, June 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah. We're probably not going to see a special advisory. Cyclone10 E-Mail  18:05, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * AL, 96, 2012062318,, BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, LO, Now the NHC just need to find a well define center and we have ts Debby.Allanjeffs 18:42, June 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't quite know what Debby could resemble. It sounds like it could be a repeat of Dolly (2008), but making landfall at full force instead of weakening at the last minute, and in the Corpus Christi area, it could be more destructive than she was. Ryan1000 18:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Debby
It's here!-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:11, June 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Dang it! You got it first. :P Hello Debby, how is it going?  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:12, June 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Debby !!! We have Debby the earliest 4 name storm<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">AL, 04, 2012062318,, BEST, 0, 260N, 876W, 40, 1001, TS,Allanjeffs 19:15, June 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * This easily becomes the 4th earliest storm.... beating Dennis to the mark.... by 11 days. Phew. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:22, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not up on NHC, but will be soon. Wow. What a wild season it's been thus far. I don't know if it will keep going at this rate, but if it does, 2005 won't stand as the most active year for much longer. I can't wait to see where NHC takes it, in intensity and path. Ryan1000 20:20, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hey, you guys having fun? Sorry I missed Chris. That was interesting. Who saw a hurricane out of that? Debby is a bit of a surprise given the high shear in the area, but it really got better organized overnight. Quite frankly, I'm not sure why we're having to wait on recon. This thing has an obvious LLCC. I really don't care for NHC's heavy reliance on recon to determine the status of storms when we have a vast array of satellite data that is more than capable of determining whether there's a surface circulation or not. Precious hours are lost while we sit around and wait on recon to tell us that a duck is in fact a duck. Ryan, we are indeed on a blistering pace. I still can't get over the fact that we had two storms in May. Keep in mind, however, we are forecast to go into a weak El Nino which will probably curtail late season activity. Therefore, it's unlikely this season will approach 2005's record. But it has been an amazing start. I know I've been absentee this month. I promise I will be more active in the coming weeks as it looks like we'll continue to have stuff to talk about. It looks like everyone's here now, as early as it is, so maybe we can make some Hall of Fame progress. -- SkyFury 20:41, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

New advisory puts Debby at 50 mph. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:53, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

could become a hurricane before reaching the coast it is already 50 mph,If Chris can do it Debby also can.Allanjeffs 21:02, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">2005's already lost one record for earliest storm formation (Debby beat Dennis by nearly two weeks), and this is also the first time we had 4 storms form in the Atlantic before July. I can't believe it. And NHC seems to like the Euro forecast, which takes it up to possibly a 100 mph category two as it approaches Corpus Christi in the next 5-6 days. Celia anyone? This season just won't quit. Not only are we talking about Debby, but GFS is (in the long run) picking up on a few waves crossing Africa that could develop at the start of July. If we get Ernesto and Florence by then, I will scream. Ryan1000 21:22, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Not happening. Debby could reach Category 1 strength by the time it reaches Texas, but that's about it. We've been well ahead of 2005's pace all season, but it won't last. With an El Nino looming, we should taper off by mid-September. I see a very quiet October. But July and August should be really interesting. -- SkyFury 21:36, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don`t think Debby will surpass the cat 1 now Dr Masters and Angela Fritz are predicting that wind shear will increase to 30knts so It will be quite a challege for Debby to strength.Allanjeffs 22:02, June 23, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe it will be more beneficial than harmful. Texas has been in drought for the past 17 years or so, except 2007, and they could use some rain for crop growth, like Beryl did to parts of Florida and Georgia back in May. Everything else is quiet in the tropics. Ryan1000 22:08, June 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah... here in Texas we really need drought relief. Its still generally undecided whether Debby will head left or right, but the deciding factor we'll learn of tonight and tomorrow morning perhaps. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:33, June 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * pressure 998 Now and expect to peak at 80mph and I think that is a little consevative.Allanjeffs 03:04, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * I mentioned that 100-105 mph isn't out of the question (and is what euro thinks), but it won't be as strong as Celia when it hit Corpus Christi (as a 125 mph major hurricane). But Debby could still easily reach category 2 and that could spell trouble for Corpus in the next 6 days, by the time it makes landfall. We shouldn't write it off as just a rain maker yet. Wind shear is a problem for Debby to intensify, but all of the earlier storms this year fought against it and they developed (especially Chris; he was just awesome), so we can't say Debby will succumb to shear. Ryan1000 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * The models at this hour are trending more east,Maybe me sticking with the GFS wasn`t crazy after all but maybe the models will change their minds again towards the west.I say Florida landfall and if not a louisiana landfall.Allanjeffs 06:50, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Special advisory products are being issued for the coast... and due to Debby's large wind field, tropical storm winds are already being felt at Apalachicola (theoretically, based on graphhics). A buoy just offshore of Apalachicola is already feeling up to 50 mph sustained winds. Debby should be making a pretty close pass to New Orleans based on the NHC track, but Debby has so far been reluctant to turn anywhere. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:02, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * She's been moving all over the place. She can't make up her mind on where to go, can she? She's clearly getting better organized though. Florida has seen little rainfall since Beryl. And if it hits Louisiana it could be a problem for the big easy, even though it will only be a category 1 at most if it goes there. I have little knowledge of where this storm will go, but at least it's not too powerful. If a major hurricane was doing this, it would be a huge problem for the gulf coast. Ryan1000 16:17, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * If Debby can reach hurricane intensity we would have two hurricane in June amazing!!! Debby is one of the most difficult tropical cyclones I have ever track if not the worst . Texas, Louisiana, Florida are all in play even Mississippi and Alabama could see a landfall.Allanjeffs 16:13, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * If Debby becomes a hurricane, it would be the first time we would see two June hurricanes since 1968. The record is 3 held by 1886. The models were also split on Lee and Nate of last year, but Debby's current proxmitity to the U.S. makes it much more worrisome. Ryan1000 16:21, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry for being inactive. Anyway, I can hardly believe we've gotten 2 June storms, and it does look like Debby will be big trouble! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:58, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Upped to 60 mph and 993 milibars now. Maybe hurricane status isn't out of the question after all. Though Debby really seems to be defying what NHC tells her to do. They were saying Texas, now Louisiana, but maybe Florida is where she's heading for after all. She's not very strong, but flooding is a big concern with Debby, especially knowing how large she is. Some of the rain will be beneficial, but we don't want to see a Fay or Allison from this storm. Nearly every square mile of Florida is seeing rain from this little pest. Worse, she's moving at a mere 6 mph, so that rain will last for quite a while. Ryan1000 18:17, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Or Lee. Don't forget last year's first storm of September! --HurricaneMaker99 20:36, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * If Debby is like Allison then Debby will likely be retire she can easily reach hurricane intensity IMO .it looks like the Gfs was correct that is why I always stick with it in the goods and in the bad moments Allanjeffs 18:46, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Right now it's headed NE, interesting to see what happens next. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:00, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Debby is one of the trickiest storms i've ever forecasted. The good news about her is, although it could make a "surprise" landfall anywhere, it's only a moderate tropical storm as we speak. As I mentioned earlier, if this was a major hurricane, the upper gulf coast would be in deep sh!t, because not only would we not know where she's going, but where she does hit, the people would get caught by surprise and die. Mitch did the same thing Debby did (in the Caribbean), but it was 3 times stronger than Debby. The uncertainty in forecasting Mitch was the main reason for his staggering death toll. Had we known he would hit Honduras, the death toll could have been much lower. Debby's going to flood everyone she touches with her rainfall, but she's not a wind or storm surge threat. And if she does intensify to a hurricane, maybe the track will be more certain. Either way, the entire upper gulf coast needs to pay close attention to Debby. Ryan1000 20:11, June 24, 2012 (UTC)

New advisory makes Debby meander around the NE Gulf - and hit dead on with Florida's big bend. Largest forecast change I've seen my entire life. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:39, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ryan, I initially forecast Debby to run ashore near Panama City and head up the East Coast, a la the GFS solution. It's starting to look like I wasn't too far off. But you're right, this storm has been a bitch to forecast. Confidence is gradually increasing but still it's a crapshoot. I foresee a significant reorganization soon that will likely stall intensification. I think Debby's gonna lose it's main branch of convection over the Florida peninsula and refire convection closer to the center. It's already starting to do that with the smaller ball of convection over the northern Gulf. I do not expect this storm to reach hurricane strength. -- SkyFury 22:54, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Anything could change with this storm's path, and I initially thought Debby would hit Florida, then I changed my mind and thought Texas, and now it's heading for Florida again. The latest advistory kept it's winds at 60 but the pressure dropped from 993 to 990. Hurricane status definitely isn't out of the question, but it will likely only be brief if anything. Debby will be bringing flooding rains and high surf more than high winds and a rough storm surge. It's large enough to engulf all of Florida in thunderstorms as we speak, but as it organizes, the storms over Florida will fade and it will be more concentrated near the center. Bottom line: this storm can't make up it's mind. It may soon, but things could always change. Ryan1000 00:54, June 25, 2012 (UTC)

Debby is the hardest storm I've ever had to track. It can't make up its mind at all so it just remains stationary for a day or 2. Debby must be one heck of a storm to ignore the NHC forecast like that :P. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:10, June 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The track for Debby is so uncertain, it could end up anywhere from the panhandle of Florida all the way to the big easy. No storm in this position has ever, in my history of tracking storms, had such an uncertainty in it's track. Ryan1000 01:23, June 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I've seen plenty of storms with extremely divergent model forecasts and significant changes in track and intensity forecasts, but in the eight years I've been doing this, I don't recall a storm this close to the coast having this much uncertainty. We're starting to get a better consensus now. I'd say it could go as far west as Pensacola, or as far east as Carrabelle/St. Marks (south of Tallahassee). I honestly don't have a clue what the intensity's gonna do. It's unlikely to get much stronger. 60 kts at best, probably more like 50-55. -- SkyFury 08:10, June 25, 2012 (UTC)

Debby lost most of her convection rescently. In fact, I think she pretty much fell apart. It's not out of the question it could be dead later today, if it doesn't rebuild itself. Most of the rainfall is gone now. If the unexpected was for this storm to fail, oh well... Ryan1000 08:52, June 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * While my question yesterday was, "Where will it go?", the question for me now is, "Is it dead?". -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:21, June 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Much of the models are developing a hurricane outof her even a major when she reach the Atlantic side of Florida after crossing it.Allanjeffs 14:39, June 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Visually this is starting to remind me of a larger Nate, except with a huge band of convection over the southeastern US/Gulf Stream:, --HurricaneMaker99 15:52, June 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * New advisory brings it down to 45 mph and right to the east.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 16:11, June 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * It seems that Debby could be much less severe than I anticipated. I feared she would be a very bad hurricane at one point, but now we get only a rainshower or two for the sunshine state. Ryan1000 19:02, June 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Doubt I am solid in my thinking that this will become a hurricane after crossing Florida.Allanjeffs 19:41, June 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Right now's the first time that it has been trying to get convection over the center. A little too late right now, as it will make landfall soon. However the models have been pretty aggresive (liberal) after passing Florida. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:50, June 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Debby will shortly make landfall. I have never been this uncertain in making a tropical cyclone forecast before. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:07, June 25, 2012 (UTC)

Wow... Debby is going to pour a lot of rain. Florida, after being in a drought for some time, is now in a double whammy of flood events. In the pass 7 days, Debby included, up to 15" of rain has been recorded near Tampa, with more than 80% of the state having at least 1.5" of rain. If you include the flooding event 2 weeks ago, then there will be no areas in Florida without at least 2" of rain reported. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:03, June 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Still 40 knots. Cyclone10 E-Mail  04:08, June 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * But pressure is down to 992 Debby is probably now a billion dolllar disaster after seeing the disaster it has caused in Wakulla area.she is nearing Allison kind of destructionso sad.and the bad thingg is that she is not moving and not expected to move.Allanjeffs 04:27, June 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Debby has made landfall near Steinhatchee, FL. Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:06, June 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Good thing it's finally on the move. Florida has had enough with Debby. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:22, June 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Rainfall was beneficial for busting the drought that region has had for the past several weeks, except Beryl. Then again, there was some flooding along with it, though it probrably wasn't as bad as Allison. This storm kind of reminds me of Leslie of 2000, though the 1 billion in damage was from it's precursor wave. If you don't count the precursor wave, this resembles Alberto of 1994, except this is in Florida, not Georgia. Ryan1000 21:41, June 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Debby
Not sure this will make it through Florida.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:40, June 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah... I said the same thing about Beryl, that despite how organized it was, that it probably wouldn't survive. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:51, June 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * It should die soon. I will never forget Debby as being one of the most troublesome storms from a forecasting perspective. Ryan1000 02:53, June 27, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Tropical Atlantic
Tropical wave in the Tropical Atlantic showing on GTWO with 10%. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:39, June 27, 2012 (UTC

If this develops, it would surpass Emily of 2005 as earliest "E" storm, come on Ernesto! 96.242.128.215 00:44, June 27, 2012 (UTC)

I knew this wave has at least a chance of developing.Allanjeffs 01:11, June 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Not only could it beat Emily for earliest 5th storm, but this is really starting to remind me of what Emily's precursor looked like. While it might not develop in the same spot, it could develop in the same spot as Dennis did, should it become better organized by then. Emily was much better organized in the same position 96L is in. It has 4 days until June ends...If we can get 5 storms before July, I won't believe my eyes. Even if it doesn't organize when it reaches the lessers, Emily '05 didn't become named until July 12. If this wave (or any other wave) become Ernesto before that date, Emily's record will be broken. Ryan1000 03:00, June 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The next wave looks more promising Ernesto could come from this one or the other one.Allanjeffs 04:03, June 27, 2012 (UTC)

There are many powerful, famous storms that looked just like this AOI when they were in the central Atlantic, but the time of year to see this kind of activity doesn't give us a promising future season, and few famous storms developed in this area of the Atlantic at this time of year. I don't think this will be named by the time it reaches the lesser antillies, but when it reaches the western Caribbean/greater antillies, then we could see Ernesto. That's about a week from now, at the start of July, and it certainly could happen. Ryan1000 08:27, June 27, 2012 (UTC)

What do you guys think possible pre-Eresto's peak intensity will be down the road? 96.242.128.215 13:11, June 27, 2012 (UTC)

New Hurricane Wiki Main Page
I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go:

Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here.

Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it.

Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I like the new homepage. Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * This new homepage is truly awesome! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Cyclone10 E-Mail  04:26, June 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - No.
 * Beryl - 20% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Chris - 0% - It's a early hurricane, but I still doubt it.
 * Debby - ?


 * If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that, meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Alberto - 0.1% - Some slight effects in the Southeast, but it's not likely.
 * 2) Beryl - 10% - Lots of Memorial Day hype, but damage will probably not be enough for retirement.
 * 3) Chris - 0.01% - A rare and unusual storm! The 0.01% is for what he accomplished.
 * 4) Debby - TBA - Still Active


 * We've started this already? Really? Lol. -- SkyFury 21:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I mentioned it's not worth the trouble to start it after just few (fish) storms in the season. Unless Debby turns out to be threatening for Corpus Christi, I won't be posting mine for a while. Ryan1000 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC)