Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

99S.INVEST
Inside the Mozambique Channel.-- Cyclone10 00:05, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

This storm looks like it could cause some serious flooding, but i'm not expecting signifigant development of this system. Possibly it could become a minimal cyclone, but that's probrably it. I would be a bit surprised if we don't get Chanda at all though. BTW, we forgot to add the damage total section in the betting pools; I just put that in now. Ryan1000 00:12, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

It looks better on satellite now.-- Cyclone10 02:38, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

TCFA alert!-- Cy10 21:16, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Chanda... Ryan1000 01:03, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Not yet...-- Cy10 03:55, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Still not yet...-- Cy10 19:13, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

It probably be upgrade at any moment Allanjeffs 21:49, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 05S
On Wikipedia, it says this is a zone of disturbed weather, but I'm not sure if that counts as a tropical cyclone. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:44, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Now it has been designated Tropical Cyclone 05S by the JTWC. And no, we don't have Chanda quite yet. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:48, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

It's so close to becoming Chanda though... As I said earlier, it will probrably intensify into a category 1 storm or so before making landfall in Madagascar's southwest coast. The current forecast only takes it to a tropical storm, but given the way it looks, i'd be surprised if it doesn't become a minimal cyclone. Ryan1000 23:53, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

You mean a moderate tropical storm?-- Cy10 00:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Well, yeah, but anyhow, I still think Chanda will become a C1 cyclone in the future. And we can leave it as Tropical Cyclone 05S in the storms header, there's no need to put in so many words. Wunderground has it as 05S, JTWC has it as 05S, we should too. Ryan1000 01:01, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t think it will be much maybe a moderate to severe tropical storm Allanjeffs 02:03, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda
Named and at 35kts 10-min. Yqt1001 15:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

It won't get strong before its Madagascar landfall according to the official forecast (unless it pulls a Lorenzo or Humberto and becomes a tropical cyclone). Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  15:29, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

I knew it was not going to be much just a rainmaker Allanjeffs 19:48, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

...and there goes the last advisory by JTWC..-- Cy10 23:09, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Made landfall and should dissipate soon. I don't expect to see much damage other than rainfall. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:48, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Chanda
Is it a fail?-- Cy10 03:04, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

At least it form Allanjeffs 12:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

I was expecting worse... I guess I stand corrected. Ryan1000 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Chanda
And gone...-- Cy10 21:04, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Nope... its still here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 06R
New disturbance here - not gonna become a depression. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

But it's going to last for a long time.-- Cy10 22:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

And it looks subtropical.-- Cy10 02:40, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression 06R
I stand corrected.-- Cy10 13:13, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Still there....-- Cy10 18:06, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

We should see this becoming a significant tropical system by the time this makes landfall. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:33, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

Low chance.-- Cy10 01:15, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

I personally believe this could be Moderate Tropical Storm Dando in a couple days. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:50, January 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * I would like to take that a little further and bring it to Severe TS status. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:58, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 06R
OR it doesn't develop at all!-- Cy10 18:32, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

You WILL find that it redevelops. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:58, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe time will tell Allanjeffs 19:42, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression 06R (again)
Redeveloped better than ever, now a 40mph STD in 10-min winds. Expected to make the transition to tropical just before landfall. Yqt1001 15:43, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

What did I tell ya? Its Kiewii btw. 90.216.177.93 15:48, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

But it might not make it for the transition.-- Cy10 16:09, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Dando
Got named, not expected to become tropical anymore. Yqt1001 18:35, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

At least it was name its better than nothing Allanjeffs 22:01, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

I knew it would get named! And also, we now have more named storms than last year. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  00:05, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah that is incredible we may have an active season after allAllanjeffs 00:58, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not that surprised, last year's SWIO season was like a 1914 AHS, the least active year ever, or in a very long time. This time(or year) though, the SPac's been a bit behind schedule. Ryan1000 15:51, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

Dando has made landfall.-- Cy10 19:35, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

Then it should be gone soon. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  21:53, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

Should probable be out at any momentAllanjeffs 05:01, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

No longer an invest.-- Cy10 05:36, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Dando
Gone.-- Cy10 05:37, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

I knew he will be out at any momentAllanjeffs 12:46, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: South of the Chagos
We have really got to keep an eye on this one - forecast to intensify into a TC or ITC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:24, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

I can't wait to get our "E" storm! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  21:56, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

We are really moving fast this year with name storms Allanjeffs 00:17, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

94S.INVEST
Now a invest.-- Cy10 02:11, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

Anyone more think Ethel is coming?Allanjeffs 03:12, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

Yup.-- Cy10 03:43, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather 07
We are going to see some rapid strengthening. This should become a STS in about two days time. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:29, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Here we go again! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  13:17, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07
Yup... its coming. But I would rather watch the one in the Mozambique Channel, since this one isn't going to effect land (maybe Antarctica?). &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:29, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Kiewii, how would a storm affect Antarctica (You misspelled "affect" in your previous post FYI)? Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:52, January 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't care about how I spell. You'll find that a storm affects Antarctica everyday. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:54, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07
Strengthening rapidly. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:17, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Can't wait to see Ethel. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  02:14, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

This thing looks rather nice. It already looks like a hurricane-strength storm based on the sattelite imagery. I'd be surprised if we don't see at least our first SWIO major from this. At least it will be a fishspinner(for the most part), unless it comes close enough to Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 03:34, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 07S
JTWC update out. Very good chance of RI sometime in the next 2 days, 85kts peak if it doesn't RI, but RI appears to be inevitable at this point. Yqt1001 03:37, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

I'd be baffled if this one doesn't explode. It's in prime conditions for explosive development and the small circulation will only reinforce intensification. I'd place the peak of this one as a category 4 storm, with an outside chance at cat. 5. Ryan1000 03:59, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like this would become Ethel and has everything in its favor to explode like Edzani did right know this Ocean is becoming very active i would not be very surprise if Giovanna forms next week at the pace we are going right knowAllanjeffs 04:05, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel
Expected to strengthen into a TC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 07:52, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Anytime now, Ethel... You're in ripe conditions for explosive strengthening, why aren't you doing it? Ryan1000 18:33, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Ethel
Maybe you were a little too early Ryan? &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:44, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ethel's core isn't in a position where it can easily RI as of the last MW image a while ago. Might be now though (likely is). Yqt1001 20:17, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now it looks more impressive, but Ethel doesn't have much time before she's going to be running into colder waters and stronger shear. She better get on with it. Ryan1000 00:14, January 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ethel is now a hurricane in our scale right? if she wants to start strengthening like Funso it better start nowAllanjeffs 02:31, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * not more forecast to become a major noe I expect one of this Allanjeffs 11:50, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

One person killed from this storm (most likely in the Rodrigues). 90.216.177.93 12:39, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

Ethel won't be with us for long...she should be extratropical in about three days' time. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  12:59, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ethel is falling out of place, it was an 85mph (1-min) cyclone, but now it doesn't show any signs of being that strong. Yqt1001 13:21, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Wasn't as strong as it could've been, but it still didn't affect land altogether. Ryan1000 17:25, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think this is a minimal storm.Allanjeffs 00:44, January 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's starting to become extratropical.-- Cy10 -- 05:45, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

It should peak at 950 mb extratropical. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:29, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (2nd time)
Weakened to an MTS just as its becomes extratropical. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:09, January 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Last advisory by JTWC.-- Cy10 -- 17:27, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * It was interesting to track this storm that was forecast to become a formidable cyclone because of favorable conditions and only reach cat 1.Allanjeffs 19:01, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

Extratropical Cyclone Ethel
Now gone.-- Cy10 -- 21:10, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * And as always, I will be tracking the extratropical cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:24, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

Now attained peak intensity with 962 mb. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:49, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

90S.INVEST
North of Madagascar.-- Cy10 -- 20:48, January 27, 2012 (UTC)

Winds already getting up to 30 mph. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:56, January 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Aaand as Funso goes out, a new one goes in. This could be Giovanna with ease, though it may need to get it's act together a bit more before that happens. Currently, this invest looks a bit ragged. Ryan1000 21:48, January 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Gone.-- Cy10 -- 17:51, January 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * Nope - still here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 17:58, January 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * Not as an invest.-- Cy10 -- 19:06, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
Another one near 90S.-- Cy10 -- 01:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low 07U
New one here - cyclone watch issued for WA. Of course that means 07U has the possibility of becoming Heidi. Some good news for the guys in WA - the GFS previously had this making landfall as a C3 (ozzie), but now only a C1 (ozzie). &mdash;13R.KIEWII 11:45, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Heidi
Now a TC. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 17:54, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Not sure what to expect from this other than some rainfall in northern Australia. Ryan1000 18:37, January 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Does anyone else see anything wrong with how the forecast calls for Heidi to remain a TS strength cyclone hundreds of miles inland..over desert..? Unless it explodes to a huge storm I don't see how it will even last that far inland. Yqt1001 20:21, January 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Maybe it would i don`t remember which was but it really stay as a cyclone and i think she will be stronger than a cat 1 cyclone Allanjeffs 20:24, January 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yqt, remember that some Austrailian cyclones last for a really long time inland.-- Cy10 21:03, January 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now expected to become a C2 cyclone. -- Cy10 03:10, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now a Cat 2. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 07:13, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

I knew this was going to be stronger than anticipated it Allanjeffs 12:46, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

It won't get stronger before landfall. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  13:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes Cyclone10, they last long overland because of their size, but Heidi is very tiny. Yqt1001 13:23, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * @Yqt:Australia may be the world's driest continent, but as dry as they are, they also see rainfall in their rainy season which is heavy enough to sometimes cause floods. There may not be as much water on land as there is out at sea, but the water on the ground during floods or heavy rainfall can be used as a partial fuel for tropical storms, even though it isn't as much as out to sea, it can keep them alive for some time inland. Some storms in the Australian region even form over land. Their proxmitity to high SST's offshore can also have an impact on their intensity just inland or just offshore. Though I personally don't think Heidi will last that long inland, it could emerge off of Australia again. Ryan1000 21:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Last advisory by JTWC since it made landfall.-- Cy10 21:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Made landfall with 10-min winds of 70mph. JTWC said 1-min of 50mph? Anyways, interesting fact Ryan. Yqt1001 22:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * The Australian scale uses strongest km/hr gusts, but that's still rather odd... Ryan1000 23:45, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now down to C1.-- Cy10 02:18, January 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * As said earlier, Heidi's not done with us yet. If you look at the sattelite imagery, she's actually staying intact rather nicely over land. There is a possibility it could emerge off of Australia again, but hopefully flooding won't be that bad, if any. Ryan1000 14:59, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low Heidi
Down to a tropical low, but as Ryan said, this storm is staying intact over land. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:03, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

It looks like we are going to be seeing another Tropical Low forming just about where Heidi formed, and will move west into the SWIO. It was first mentioned in the TWO at 4AM. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:23, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

So if it develop in a cyclone would be Iggy right? weird name Allanjeffs 01:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">If it's still in the Australian region, it will keep it's original name, so it would be renamed Heidi. I believe it would reccieve a different name if it crosses into the SWIO basin however, like Lee-Ariel in 2007. Ryan1000 02:04, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">That is correct. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  02:43, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Thanks but I was talking of the tropical low that 12R.KIWII was talking about Allanjeffs 03:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ryan, that rule was changed in 2008 (I think) so that storms only receive one name. I don't think that a situation where a storm gets two formal names can ever happen again. Yqt1001 03:56, January 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * Its not gonna develop into a cyclone in the next three days, but by looking at models, it could develop into a TC or ITC in the next week. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 10:29, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Heidi
Gone.-- Cy10 17:33, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

The tropical low (previously discussed above) has formed (not mentioned by BoM) near 15S 105E. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 17:37, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">@Yqt:I'm not sure if that rule still exists today or not for AUS/SWIO crossovers, but if it does, the only way we can tell for sure is if a storm crosses from AUS to SWIO this year... Anyhow, Heidi could regenerate off of Australia, though that's not likely. Ryan1000 17:59, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Northwest Gulf of Caprentaria
Medium chance. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:56, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">As of now, it doesn't look too impressive. Australia has been unusually dry this year. After they saw record flooding in last year's tropical cyclone season, we could be looking at one of their driest tropical cyclone seasons in history. The lack of activity in the Australian region isn't surprising, but the lack of South Pacific activity is. This year could closely resemble 2009 for SHem, except SWIO will be more active, and I don't know if Australia will see a Laurence-like storm this year. Ryan1000 14:42, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

98S.INVEST
This should make landfall. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 10:27, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

TCFA alert.-- Cy10 -- 02:53, January 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Lol you keep on saying Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert alert :P It has made landfall. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:28, January 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't care, Kiewii. 98S still have some time to form.-- Cy10 -- 13:15, January 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Stop acting like that just because I said Katia wasn't a great storm. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:27, January 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * TCFA cancelled as 98S dissipates.-- Cy10 -- 03:49, January 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * ...or not. 98S still looks good despite so far inland.-- Cy10 -- 20:51, January 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gone...-- Cy10 -- 23:09, January 31, 2012 (UTC)

97S.INVEST
New one here south of Jakarta. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:48, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

BoM saying this will become Cyclone Iggy. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 10:59, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

This looks like a potent storm should be Iggy in the next few daysAllanjeffs 20:34, January 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Nope, the BoM have it peaking at 35 mph now. Wont have long to become a cat 1 anyway since it should make landfall where Heidi did. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:45, January 23, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low 11U
We are gonna see Iggy. Should peak at Cat 3 strength. TCFA issued too. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:32, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Iggy forms expect to become a cat 3 cyclone.Allanjeffs 20:28, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It's expected to curve away from Australia before making landfall. We shouldn't see much out of this in terms of impacts. Ryan1000 21:13, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Be careful with Iggy Ryan now expect to reach cat 4 and base on Australia Center not JTWC Iggy will be making laandfall at cat 4 strength.Allanjeffs 11:18, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

Northwestern Australia isn't a big fan of strong tropical cyclone landfalls and Cyclone Iggy could either miss Australia to the west or smash ashore near Exmouth on Cape Range like Cyclone Vance in 1999, or a tad further east. That would be very bad for the folks there. It could also make landfall on the central western coast of Australia, but landfalls there are somewhat rare and not generally seen. Iggy may change that, but I won't count on it yet. Ryan1000 13:11, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hmmm...Iggy hasn't been moving too much rescently but it is still expected to make landfall in Australia as a category 4 cyclone(on their scale; it would be a category 2-3 on ours), and the area around Onslow is most likely going to be under the greatest threat from Iggy. Ryan1000 18:35, January 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Iggy would probable make landfall in Australia but I do not know at what intensity.Allanjeffs 00:55, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

Iggy's been moving rather slowly and now the official forecast from the BOM calls for it to curve away from Australia without making landfall, like the JTWC indicated. That could change, but hopefully Iggy will stay at sea. Ryan1000 01:18, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

What a fail. It reached its peak of 55 kts.. now weakening. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:15, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe for now it may re-strength later,but it really surprise me that it weakens I didn`t see that coming.Allanjeffs 15:02, January 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now down to a C1. No longer expected to strenghen again....what a fail.-- Cy10 -- 17:56, January 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not yet. It is expected to parallel western Australia before coming ashore near Perth in the next 3 days or so. As I said, central Western Australia isn't a fan of strong tropical cyclone landfalls, but this one could be a bit blustery for the folks there. It's not a failure yet. Ryan1000 18:46, January 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah he still has potential it still could make landfall don`t put him out until he disippites.Allanjeffs 19:38, January 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * Besides Iggy, we could be seeing our first severe TC in the Brisbane region next week. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:22, January 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Man, I really wanted to see this become a severe TC... Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:43, January 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * Back to a C2....-- Cy10 -- 00:59, January 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Knew that Iggy would hang out a little more so btw Jasmine could form next week yeah?.Allanjeffs 01:22, January 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=TC-20120130-33962-IDN
 * ....and Iggy suddenly weakens to a C1.-- Cy10 -- 03:49, January 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * CY10 don`t put a number to low for Iggy in the retirement at glance he already kill 16 People in Indonesia

Allanjeffs 05:09, January 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * ....and Iggy suddenly strenghens into a C1 on the SSHS scale.-- Cy10 -- 03:30, February 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's currently expected to make landfall near Jurlen Bay as a tropical storm, but the fact that this area of Australia has almost never had to deal with this could mean it might be a bit damaging. Don't write this one off just yet. Ryan1000 14:50, February 1, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Iggy
Maybe.-- Cy10 -- 01:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

So with Iggy out we could say this is the first time since I don`t remember that we don`t have a disturb weather or tropical cyclone active.Allanjeffs 02:38, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

Well the BoM forecast shows Ex-Iggy moving across WA before entering the Australian Bight and being absorbed by a cold front. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:34, February 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks like it's coming ashore, but now it's been torn to almost nothing. Ryan1000 14:28, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well Perth has gotten 4mm of rain, which is hardly anything. Well at least Iggy has cooled down the temps there, as a few days ago the temps got up to 105F &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:08, February 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Last advisory by JTWC...-- Cy10 -- 21:28, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

95P.INVEST
TCFA...and it's heading toward SPAC. -- Cy10 -- 21:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

Finally...maybe a storm there! 173.169.56.34 02:40, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Well - Nadi actually say that when it enters the SPAC, it will be a strong depression or a cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:29, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 03F
Here it is.-- Cy10 23:17, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

This storm is already the strongest storm of the 2011-12 SPAC cyclone season. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:26, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 03F
Gone. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F
No THIS is the strongest storm of the season so far. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

...by 1 mbar..-- Cy10 00:42, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Wow! The SPAC has just blown up! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:41, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 04F
Done now. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:44, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Big fail.-- Cy10 00:00, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah i can`t argue with this one btw this are depressions? or just like low medium high the types of classifications we use in the Atlantic?Allanjeffs 04:50, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 05F
New one here. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Each disturbance surpassing the other by a couple of millibar when is the good action start on this season?Allanjeffs 01:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

04F and 05F are now tying for the strongest storm of the season. But remember.. this is only January. We still have a lot more storms to come. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 10:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yeah, February is the peak of the SHem season, and their March is like our October, so that bears watching too. Right now, this is the equivalent of the SHem's August. They're just getting warmed up. Ryan1000 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Does this disturbance even exist now ? Allanjeffs 03:49, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 05F
Gone.-- Cy10 03:51, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 06F
New one here.-- Cy10 03:19, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

What is the probability of this becoming a tropical cyclone low,medium,or high?Allanjeffs 04:54, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It's only low to moderate for now. It's not expected to become much. For future reference Allan, go here. If you want to go more specific, click on "Warnings, advisories, and other disturbance information". You can see a list of all of the TC forecasting centers if you scroll down on WUndergrounds tropical weather page. Ryan1000 09:51, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 06F
Now a depression. Has anyone noticed a pattern? We've had a TDi, TD, TDi, TD, TDi, TD. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:33, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Until now that you show it I see but could this be our first name in this basin we will see.Allanjeffs 00:49, January 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Probably not, Allan. The probability is getting smaller.-- Cy10 -- 05:48, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Does this system is even alive?Allanjeffs 23:31, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 06F
Gone :/ &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:39, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

99P.INVEST
Lets keep an eye on this system... &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:39, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The SPac has been a wasteland for most of this season; all I can see on the sattelite imagery is a strong band of wind shear streching across most of the basin. The SWIO is doing fine and Australia isn't half-bad, but at this rate, we could see a repeat of 2008-09 for the SPac, with a really late start and hardly any storms. This invest could could change that, though if that shear doesn't abate, then it will die out as well. Ryan1000 01:32, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07F
Come on... you can do this... &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:01, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

The weird TDi/TD pattern continues... I hope this breaks the trend. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  02:37, January 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now the strongest storm of the year.-- Cy10 -- 00:06, January 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * No.. based on official data, it isn't the strongest storm. Based on unofficial data, it is. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 00:10, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07F
The pattern has been broken! High chance of this becoming Cyril! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:19, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah we may have our first name storm in this basin.Allanjeffs 15:09, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Wouldn't be surprised. It's currently moving southeast with some intensification, but how strong it will get I do not know. Ryan1000 18:42, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

Our first ever TDi Advisory of the season has been issued on this system. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 00:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

Fellas some models are showing a low in the Gulf of Mexico and intensifying could that become Alberto in the Atlantic because if that happen it would be !!!amazing!!!.Allanjeffs 03:17, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

Well it looks like we are going to have to wait a bit longer for Cyril, as the last advisory has just been issued :( &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:57, February 1, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone 07F
Will the 2011-12 SPAC get a storm? If ever?!

Yes....-- Cy10 -- 21:17, February 1, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Still, it won't be more active than 3-4 storms at this rate, at most... Ryan1000 22:02, February 1, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">By this time last year we were by Yasi it really surprise me how inactive this season have been what are going to be the effects for the Atlantic? more active or more inactive Hurricane season? and because no tropical cyclone has form water is extremele hot to the cyclone that are going to form.Allanjeffs 23:19, February 1, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not sure what the real trend has been, because although last year's SHem season was an inactive one as a whole, the Atlantic had tied for the third most active ever. However, the ACE and number of hurricanes and major hurricanes wasn't extremely impressive for a season with so many named storms. BTW Allan, by this time last year, Zaka and Atu were just around the corner in SPac and Bingiza was a week away in the SWIO. From what i'm seeing now, the SPac and SWIO won't get three or four more storms in the next week unless some miracle happens there, and i'd be surprised if the SPac alone gets 3 or 4 total storms in the rest of their season. The SWIO is likely going to be in the near-normal range of 9-10 storms overall. Australian region is also okay thus far, though it's been worse in past years. Ryan1000 23:55, February 1, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07F (2nd time)
Anddd... its back! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:31, February 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hey! We could get Cyril after all! The SPac has been trying really hard to get just one storm this season, but whenever Cyril does come our way it will be the latest first named storm for the SPac on record. Though the basin looks like a wasteland of shear right now, this storm could squeak it's way up to tropical storm status before it succumbs to unfavorable conditions. Ryan1000 11:03, February 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Nah, I wouldn't think that. Meteo-France say this is an extratropical depression, while Nadi are right on the verge of saying that too. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:36, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

Argh, I take it back. The SPac has been so modest this season. Nothing has persisted through the face of all this shear and from the way this season has gone, this year's SPac season could rival last year's SWIO season to being the least active SHem cyclone season in recorded history (out of the Australian region, SWIO, and SPac). Ryan1000 14:46, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone 07F (2nd time)
Anddd... its gone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:44, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08F
And it continues again... &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:17, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

The CMC, NGP have this becoming Tropical Cyclone Cyril. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:54, January 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Currently this one is only at a low chance for the next 24 to 48 hours, but that could easily change as indicated by RSMC Nadi. It's not expected to become super-powerful as of yet. Ryan1000 13:16, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 08F
Gone.-- Cy10 -- 00:03, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

Like all the failiures we have this year in this basin.Allanjeffs 00:57, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">SPac has been rather modest for most of this year; I really expected a lot more from the second-most active basin in SHem, but now we're probrably not going to get our first storm until February here, and most likely a down year. A February start here is the equivalent of getting an Atlantic start in September. Unbelievable. After a record-setting season last year with Yasi, we could be looking at one of the least active SPac seasons in history. Ryan1000 01:30, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It could be one of the least active season in the SPac but it still could create a monster like Yasi is still not over and I at least expect 3 names.Allanjeffs 02:03, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This season is beginning to remind me of the 1941 and 1914 AHS's and last year's SWIO season. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  14:23, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

The fact we did not have an active season up until now doesn't mean we will stay dead, though it sure looks that way now. Tropical Cyclone Percy of 2005 was one of the mightiest south Pacific cyclones on record and it didn't form until March. Olaf formed around this time of year and also caused lots of damage so we can't say we will stay dead. 1941 still remains the most rescent Atlantic hurricane season to begin in September, but that year still featured two powerful major hurricanes which ravaged Central America and southern Florida. We could have a slow start but rapid end like you mentioned with 1941, or we could have a dead season for good, like 1914. Personally, I think we'll get a major hurricane at some point. Ryan1000 18:32, January 29, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09F
RSMC Nadi say that this will only last one day.. gah &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:05, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

!!!Buhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!! if that is true what a fail why so they even put it.Allanjeffs 12:58, January 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * I have really been disappointed by this season. In August, I predicted 21 disturbances (at this rate, it probably will be correct), 12 tropical cyclones (thats not gonna happen, unless we explode) and 4 severe tropical cyclones (meh). &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:29, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

Yup - gone. >:| &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:30, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

What a big fail!-- Cy10 -- 20:41, January 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Didn't notice there was TDA2 out. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:42, January 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * This year's SPac season is very similar to last year's SWIO season. Having no storms form in January was a first for the SWIO last year and now it will be for the South Pacific this year as well. The inactivity of the SHem is rather surprising for these past two years, but the SPac hasn't ever done something like this, nor the entire Australian region altogether. Thus far, we have had 6 storms form in the SHem this year, but then again, at this time last year we only had 5 storms(Bianca from AUS, and Vania, Wilma, Yasi, and Zaka from SPac). We ended with 13 named storms in the first half of last year and overall ended with only 17 by the end of 2011. We'd need a 7-storm February and March to catch up with last year, in all of the SHem. I wouldn't be very surprised if we did that. Going far past that number seems unlikely though; we won't end the first half of 2011 with 19+ storms, ect. Ryan1000 21:11, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

Last advisory on the system. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:35, January 31, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: -- Cy10 -- 03:53, January 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?
 * Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts.
 * Iggy - <5% - Probably not.

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?
 * 3) Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad.
 * 4) Iggy - TBA - Still Active

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)

Time for mine.


 * 1) Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail
 * 2) Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season
 * 3) Heidi: 5% - Meh

&mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:34, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

My turn


 * 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ?


 * 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going
 * 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him Allanjeffs 00:50, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

Might as well:
 * Definitely retired - None.
 * Probrably retired - None.
 * Possibly retired - Grant.
 * Probrably not retired - Iggy and Heidi.
 * Not retired - Fina.

Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)