Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season/Flossie

98E.INVEST
While that AOI in CPac dies out, we have this little thing south of Mexico at 10%. This could become Flossie in the next few days, about time the EPac started up again. Ryan1000 15:44, July 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Eeyup. "A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS." This is hot off the press. And here is the map:

You can see that there is an invest off the coast of Central America (or the invest-to-be.) It is at a 10% chance of forming. Guys, if this becoms Flossie, what kind of storm will she be? Rara Hooves 18:46, July 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Can you be a little bit more appropriate? Thanks. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Eeyup.   Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 19:22, July 21, 2013 (UTC)

The grayscale picture on the right shows the new invest that may become Flossie. Rara Hooves 18:51, July 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this could become Flossie. C'mon, invest! Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 21:08, July 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * I actually think this could become our season's first major hurricane in 4-5 days time. Not sure how strong it will get though. Ryan1000 21:28, July 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Models show it becoming a high-end Cat 1. Up to 20%. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:55, July 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's expected to become our next named storm in the East Pacific, no doubt. This invest should become Flossie within the next 4 days or so. Models show a potential hurricane. If future-Flossie is expected to only become a steady cat 1, then we can add it to the somewhat long streak of category 1 hurricanes this year (Alvin being the only exception). ST✪12 00:18, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

I believe this will continue to gradually develop, and become Flossie in 2-3 days' time.

I have also decided to make a poll. Hope you all enjoy it! :D

Will this invest become Flossie? Of course! Yes, I think so. Maybe. Doubt it. This isn't going to develop at all! Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 00:57, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * It had 4-5 days to intensify. I agree that we will have a major soon. Also, why do we need a poll for cright out loud. And these stupid images. I removed one of them because it made me want to puke. I am not an admin, but I will not tolerate crap like this. This includes crappy signatures and whatnut. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:37, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * It will probably be a cat 1 but nothing more.The Epac bore me.I am waiting for the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 03:30, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this may peak as a C3 in the future. And I agree YE, Rara, we don't nee all these funny pictures on the wiki. Keep in mind this wiki is about hurricanes, not about the Simpsons or the Fairly Oddparents or whatnot. Try to keep any posted images on-topic from now on. I'm not expecting anything from the Atlantic for the remainder of July. August and September may have a different story to tell though. Ryan1000 04:10, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Please cut the crap, or you will have your editing privileges revoked. Please stay on topic. And don't add a million spaces to threads! And post stupid pictures no one cares about and make strange remarks about names. Back on topic, this storm could be a long-term threat to Hawaii. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:01, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

This storm, if it ever affects Hawaii, will probrably pass well north of the islands and bring some surf in the long run. But I doubt we'll see a direct hit to the islands. The last time a hurricane hit them from the east was...never, the ridge over the islands usually protects them from hurricanes, or the dry air far out to sea hinders development. I still think this could become a MH at some point though. More interesting to me than newly-formed 98L in the Atlantic at least. Ryan1000 15:20, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

YE I don't think it's up to you to revoke editing privileges, but I totally agree with the unneeded childish aspects of these forums. Anyways, a hit to Hawaii is very seldom. How many times has it happened in the past 50 years? Well, like, 2 times. So very rare. I don't doubt any high surf to the area though. A category 3 would be great for the EPAC, I'm getting tired of this endless stream of cat 1's. -_- ST✪12 15:43, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Also I really think it's in Flossie's genes to become a major hurricane. There's only been like one other time it only was a tropical storm, the most recent reincarnations of Flossie were cat 4's. ST✪12 15:47, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * I can revoke editing priveleges though, we should keep the forum on-topic from now on. And yeah, Flossie has almost always been something big, there was one TS Flossie, rest major hurricanes (like Daniel). Hopefully it becomes a major. Ryan1000 17:09, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Still at 20%. I hope this becomes a major hurricane, since we had too many Category 1's lately. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 18:43, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

Still at 20%? I'm starting to become convinced to put my poll vote to "Yes, I think so". Flossie needs to show up pretty soon, or its chances of becoming a major hurricane are going to be limited. ST✪12 19:21, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * It never had a chance at becoming an MH in the first place. Don't let YE's bias fool you. It's lost a lot of model support for developing in the last few days, I am getting very skeptical. All the intensity models which show hurricane strength, have it at hurricane strength in nearly a day. That can't happen and it's not showing many signs of development right now, so I think this storm is doomed to be a TS at most. Yqt1001 (talk) 19:39, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'll have to remember what you've said. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  20:46, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope it does become something big, but I'm not 100% convinced this will become a major, I'd personally like to see that happen though. There's better support over this at least becoming named as opposed to the ATL's 98L. I'd be shocked if 98L gets to more than 60 mph. If this becomes Flossie it should at least become a hurricane, if it doesn't become a major. If 98L does become Dorian I'd be surprised if it isn't an epic fail. Ryan1000 21:01, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't care about 98L. I don't think it will become a major really, I just think we will see one within the next week or two or at least by mid-August. As for the models, they've been acted really strangely lately. the GFS showed like 4 storms at one point due to confusion with a strong MJO pulse vs. a Kelvin wave. And the CMC has this problem showing many storms as usual :P Tbh I'd rather have a 55 knt cool-looking TS than some crap 70-75 knot mess, I am tired of this boring minimal hurricane crap. I do like how this invest is not suppose to hit the MX coast at all though for once, getting tired of that. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:23, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * I am almost sure this will only be a cat 1 hurricane.The Epac bore me unless there is a major.Allanjeffs 23:20, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

Yeah, the hope I have for this probrably won't become reality. It'll probrably peak as a C1 and nothing more. Ryan1000 23:42, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's up to 30%. C'mon invest, become Flossie!  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 00:07, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Finally! 30% system, this (I'm hoping) should become Flossie soon. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 00:30, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Where are you folks getting your information that Flossie's always been something big? The first two EPAC Flossies were TSs, 1995's Flossie was a Category 1, and 2001's Flossie was a Category 2. 2007's Flossie was the first to become a major hurricane-strength tropical cyclone in any basin ever, peaking as a Category 4. Flossie's past 5 EPAC runs average out to Category 1 intensity, assuming the value of a TS is 0 ((0+0+1+2+4)/5 = 1.4). Or if you wanted to average out Flossie's intensities in knots, then the average is 73 kts, which is still a Category 1. All seven Daniels, on the other hand, average out to 93 knots, which is a high-end Category 2. This average rockets up to 99 kts - a low-end Category 3 - if you exclude one of the 55-kt Daniels, and then to 108 kts if you exclude both. --HurricaneMaker99 01:55, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Still 30%. Ugh, c'mon invest. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:30, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Still 30%Allanjeffs 17:56, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm starting to lose respect for this storm, unfortunately. Ryan1000 18:03, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Only has 72 hours before it start weakening.Allanjeffs 18:19, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm getting really frustrated here. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:38, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Hey, for all you know, the very next invest could blow up and become the first EPAC Category 5 since Celia. --HurricaneMaker99 18:41, July 23, 2013 (UTC)

I doubt that. Celia happened during a 2010 June Pacific rarity. This invest is not in the same condition as Celia was. I don't expect much at all from this invest. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:34, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * I wasn't saying it would happen, I was just saying that you never know. --HurricaneMaker99 22:00, July 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * He said the next invest after this one Andrew, and that's a bit far out to tell. But, EPac storms can be tricky in intensity forecasts at times, sometimes NHC predicts a cat. 3 or 4 and we get a strong cat. 5. Ryan1000 02:33, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Speaking of which, I wonder if Dora from 2011 will ever be reassessed as a Category 5 at its peak? --HurricaneMaker99 03:54, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * I doubt it. Jimena? maybe, but Dora no. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:59, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nop Dora was not a cat 5,Like YE I believe Jimena was as even in the news I remember that she was called cat 5.YE you that are a Epac lover how did you feel of last season?Allanjeffs 05:23, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * You are remembering incorrectly. Jimena was not a Cat 5, it peak 1 knt short of Cat 5 status officially. Will it be upped during re-analysis, maybe? Anyhow, this annoying thing is still 30%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  06:09, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No I mean I believe she peak as cat 5 but I know she was a 4.In the Mexican news some were calling her a cat 5.Allanjeffs 06:32, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Last year's season was unusual in the fact that it was the first EPac season in history to have no depressions not become named storms. The Atlantic had the same thing, but it wasn't the first year it happened for that basin (2006 had no unnumbered depressions in ATL as well, although there was an unnamed TS discovered post-season). Last year also got to 17 storms, at least it was descent for the inactive cycle EPac's currently in. I still hope this can organize into Flossie, but it's starting to run out of time. Ryan1000 11:53, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yes its going to become Flossie but just a ts or minimal hurricane.Allanjeffs 12:27, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * 50% now. Starting to gets its act together. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:31, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I think this is going to become Flossie. But if it develops, I hope it either remains a TS or strengthens into a Category 2. I'm sick of all the Category 1's. -_-  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:25, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

At 50%, which usually means that it's finally getting its act together and wants to become a named storm. The only weird thing is, its further west that typical storms, and that it looks like a tropical storm right now already! I don't really know why the NHC hasn't named it yet, must be because of a not well defined center of circulation, but thunderstorm activity is enormous on satellite imagery. This is going to become Flossie soon, I'm pretty sure not a major hurricane but a hurricane nonetheless. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 15:30, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's not further west at all. It's where all of the good EPAC storms form. It has a closed LLC, it's had that all along. It' that as we learned last night with 98L, it has to maintain convection for several hours. I think the convection is south of the center, but it is becoming more concentrated. I do expect that this storm will make it to code red at 18z f not 0z. As for intensity, it has only 2 days to do so, so hurricane intensity may seem a little far fathched. I think a 50-55 knt TS is more likely. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:02, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * 80%...coud be a tropical storm anytime soon. Isaac829 E-Mail  17:52, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Maybe my initial forecast wasn't so skeptical. Flossie, here we come... Ryan1000 18:16, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think Flossie will come this afternoon or evening. It looks awesome on satellite imagery! Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 18:26, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

Flossie or TD 6-E is just waiting around the corner. I'm pretty sure it'll become one of those two by tonight, the satellite imagery is showing that the bands are beginning to wrap around the center like it should. Soon my friends, soon. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 21:57, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

I believe it will be Flossie rather than td 6.Looks really organize right now,I thought they would have upgrade it at 5pm but oh well.Allanjeffs 22:53, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * SHIPS predicts a peak as a 56 kt tropical storm. I should note that GFS takes this right into Hawaii (note: I haven't checked how strong GFS expects future Flossie to be by then), with BAMM (not sure how reliable that model is) having it clip the southern tip of the Big Island. Personally, I predict that this will peak as 75 mph Hurricane Flossie >:D --HurricaneMaker99 23:27, July 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * It is TD 6-3, not TD 6, BTW. Remains 80%. An 18z pass said no closed LLC, but it could have changed by then. IT actually reminds me a bit of Emillia last year as a mid-level TS. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone


 * I believe this will not reach hurricane status,Dorian btw is stealing the show right now.Allanjeffs 00:39, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

Renumbered! We have Tropical Depression Six-E according to ATCF, but I'm waiting for confirmation from the NHC to make a new header. --HurricaneMaker99 02:28, July 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * No, Dorian is not stealing the show. Both storms are gonna likely be just as interesting. FTR, this read is quite big by my standards. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:31, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
And lo. 30 kt, 1005 mbar. Expected to peak at as a mid-range tropical storm with 50 kt winds. --HurricaneMaker99 02:54, July 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don`t think is going to be a hurricane its too late imo like Avila said,and most of the Epac storms bore me.Allanjeffs 02:55, July 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Gotta pay attention to this one too. GFS sees this hitting Hawaii in 4-5 days. :/ ( haha, guess we all got on to put this up at the same time lol ). Ryan1000 02:56, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

She is here but I hope she doesn´t become a hurricane because if she does it will only be a cat 1 and I am tire of them.Allanjeffs 08:54, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * It has a chance a cane status IMO. Let's not so pessimistic. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:01, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Flossie
Upgraded, but not expected to become a hurricane. Ryan1000 09:02, July 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * I say a high end tropical storm at the most. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 14:13, July 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Held at 35 knts at 15z. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:25, July 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't think Flossie will become a hurricane, maybe peak around 65 mph. It also looks like a threat to Hawaii.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:37, July 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Is anyone else noticing the "tropical depression" to the southwest of Flossie? Supportstorm (talk) 18:28, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * It may look like a tropical depression but it doesn´t have a close low.Allanjeffs 18:39, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

With the 2pm advisory, Flossie has strengthened slightly to 40 kt/1002 mbar, but now it's supposed to peak here, and die by the end of the forecast period. If it doesn't reach Hawaii, then we're looking at the second epic fail of the season. --HurricaneMaker99 20:49, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 45 may strength a little more maybe 50mph but tomorrow she is going to start weakening.Allanjeffs 20:49, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

Flossie is still at 45mph, doesn't look to be strengthening. Storms with larger circulations take longer to strengthen, and Flossie doesn't have much longer before it's gone. I expected a bit of a rain maker to Hawaii though. It'll be an extra-tropical system if it does effect Hawaii though. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 03:13, July 26, 2013 (UTC)

Atcf files say she will up to 50mph but I believe she might peak at 60 but she doesn`t have a lot of time to do it.Allanjeffs 06:42, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * NHC keeps Flossie a tropical storm all the way to the Big Island of Hawaii, although I don't know if it will survive that long. It could easily die before that. Ryan1000 11:03, July 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't see why it could die. It's at the latitude were the waters are not that cold yet north enough to threaten Hawaii. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:57, July 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not sure, Hawaii is rarely ever threatened by storms coming in from the east. Most of them die before ever affecting the islands. In fact, Flossie looks really good, it might become a hurricane if organization keeps up. Ryan1000 19:25, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * She looks quite good but if she wants to be a hurricane she needs to keep shw should be up to 60mph now,But I doubt it will reach Hawaii not even Hurricanes can reach it intact.Allanjeffs 19:46, July 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * NHC does take it to Hawaii, but only as a depression. I could see that, or maybe a minimal TS landfall on the big island, but the last time a hurricane hit them was 1992, and Iniki was during a record El Nino event and struck from the south, not east. Flossie could bring some welcome rain to the islands but I doubt it will be anything severe for them. Ryan1000 19:58, July 26, 2013 (UTC)

We might have our first land-falling tropical cyclone in Hawaii from the east in recorded history (unless there was a another time, I don't know of any past cyclones doing that). I don't expect a hurricane status, just like the continuously failing Dorian in the Atlantic. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 21:13, July 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Raymond 83, Orlene 92, and Daniel 82 were TD's when they came from the east. In 1958, a TS from the east hit Hawaii. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:04, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * It would be awesome if Flossie can make landfall in Hawaii. I mean, when was the last time a storm made landfall in Hawaii? Seems like a long time ago.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 00:43, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Eugene 93. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:01, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Hawaii could use a bit of rain from Flossie when it comes, but hopefully it won't cause a bunch of flooding and mudslides, that would be unfortunate. I think it'll be a weak tropical storm when it hits the big island, 40 or 45 mph. If it doesn't weaken to a depression, it'll be the first tropical storm to hit an island other than Kauai. The TS of 1958 was a depression when it made landfall, but it certainly caused heavy flooding. Hopefully Flossie won't do much when it comes to it's landfall in Hawaii. Dorian is almost dead in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 01:31, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * I am still doubting she will do it,but we will see.Allanjeffs 02:19, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * I am starting to think Flossie will. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  05:37, July 27, 2013 (UTC)

This is the latent heat flux conditions for 96h, the thermodynamics won't be very ideal for Flossie. Also, southerly shear will prevail at that timeframe, and Flossie may be losing its closed circulation and opening up into a trough at that point. It is pretty certain that Flossie would be deteriorating at that point onwards. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:16, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * SST's don't get colder than 25C though along it's path though. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  06:43, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 65mph this storm is making me eat my words.XDAllanjeffs 07:30, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Definitely she is up to 70mph.prepare for the 5th hurricane of the season.Allanjeffs 08:36, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not sure if she'll get there, NHC thinks Flossie will remain steady in strength for the next 12 hours before slowly weakening due to dry air and some wind shear. However, YE is right, SST's aren't that bad in front of it, and they won't be a contributing factor to it's gradual weakening. A minimal hurricane would not surprise me. Their forecast track still brings it into the big island as a 40 mph system, and so do most of the other models. GFS sees it missing the big island just to the north but passing south of the other islands. NHC is just a little south of them. Now that Dorian is all but dead, my attention is all on this storm. Ryan1000 12:59, July 27, 2013 (UTC)

Flossie will be crossing 140°W soon, so the next advisory will be issued by the CPHC. Flossie has started to weaken, BTW, down to 55 kt/997 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 14:55, July 27, 2013 (UTC)

Per RSMC Miami, Flossie is gone! Steven, you were right! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:08, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * No it's not. RSMC Miami issued their last advisory because Flossie is leaving their area of responsibility. Flossie's not dead, she's CPAC-bound. That being said, she's weakening pretty quickly, down to 45 kt/1000 mbar per ATCF. At this rate, I'd be surprised if Flossie makes it to Hawaii as a tropical cyclone. --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, July 27, 2013 (UTC)

Whoops, sorry. Anyway, I do not expect Flossie to last much longer. It's real disorganized. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:24, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * That being said, she's still in the active storms header on the top of the page. However, I agree, she might not last as long as earlier thought. Still has a chance to reach the big island though. Ryan1000 19:39, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fresh from the first discussion issued by RSMC Honolulu (12th overall): "SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE THE GREATEST FACTOR IN ITS WEAKENING TREND. MARGINAL SSTS AS WELL AS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION ALSO APPEARS TO BE A FACTOR IN ITS WEAKENING. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PLAY A ROLL IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF FLOSSIE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS." French is my favorite, personally. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:59, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, marginal thermodynamics will be a limiting factor. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:29, July 27, 2013 (UTC)

Flossie looks to impact Hawaii somehow, I'm not too sure about a tropical storm landfall, but rain nonetheless. Flossie's center of circulation is beginning to become exposed due to shear nearby the system. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 22:54, July 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * A Tropical Storm Watch just got issued for Hawaii and Maui Counties, which are comprised of the big island, Maui, Lānai, and Molokai. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:07, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * About time. Hawaii better watch out for some flash flooding. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Now it's been upgraded to a tropical storm warning. The Hilo area better be wary of potential flooding from Flossie, even though it'll be only a 40 mph tropical storm by then or so. Expect a landfall tomorrow afternoon. I also should point out Flossie has actually re-organized over the marginally favorable conditions she's in. Intensity is now upped to 60 mph. Persistent little storm... Ryan1000 10:50, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * You've got to be kidding me...newest advisory from the Central Pacific hurricane center has Flossie intensifying even more, now it's 65 mph and 996 mbars. Wow, I didn't expect this to happen, looks like Flossie's not going down without a fight. Conditions might not be that unfavorable after all... Ryan1000 12:23, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

This is not good. Also, according to the CPHC, Flossie will be a tropical storm when it makes landfall on the Big Island. This would put it as the fourth tropical cyclone to hit the Big Island since the start of the EPAC hurricane database 1949, after Tropical Storm Seven of 1958, Orlene in 1992, and Eugene in 1993. I predict Flossie's impacts to Hawaii will be similar to Hurricane Felicia in 2009, but nowhere near Hurricane Iniki. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me
 * Latest forecast takes it onto the big island as a 50 mph storm or so, and Flossie could dump up to 8 inches of rai on the big island and other islands, possibly more. This makes for a dangerous flooding scenario in Hawaii, and the folks near Hilo are going to be having a rough day tomorrow. The latest forecast track might have Flossie actually miss the big island just to the north and pass between the big island and the island of Maui as a 50 mph storm. Tropical storm landfalls in Hawaii are rather rare, and the big island has never experienced a tropical storm landfall before. There were lots of depressions that hit them but Flossie could very well be the first tropical storm to hit an island other than Kauai. It almost looks like it's developing an eye actually. But I don't think it'll become a hurricane, from here on out it should weaken. Ryan1000 15:50, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

13:09, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not looking good for Hawaii. I think the impact will be much worse than Felicia, but still nowhere near Iniki. Also, how come no recon? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:51, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not sure why no recon has gone into Flossie, I guess they're just estimating it's intensity from sattelite imagery, but it looks reasonable either way. This is definitely more interesting than ex-Dorian. First time a tropical storm makes landfall in Hawaii from the east. And Flossie never became a hurricane too. I hope everyone is out of harm's way by now. I think this could be a repeat of the 1958 storm in terms of impacts, some flooding and damage but hopefully nothing severe. Most of the other storms that neared Hawaii died before they hit and caused no damage or deaths. Ryan1000 16:01, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dude, Flossie looks so rare. I have never tracked a Hawaiian landfalling storm in my life! And it's even more rare in that it is coming from the east! Not looking good for Hawaii... Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * The biggest fear I have with Flossie is the residents of Hawaii won't take her as seriously as Iniki or Iwa, due to her weak strength, and she could cause more damage or deaths than she otherwise would. People have a tendency to underestimate storms based on strength, but as Agatha of 2010 showed us, tropical storms can be very devastating too, with the flash flooding and mudslides they bring from their torrential rainfall. The good news is Flossie is not very big and it's moving along at a fairly brisk pace, west at 20 mph. If this was a more slowly-moving storm, it would be much worse. But the high, volcanic mountain of Mauna Kea could still suck up a lot of rainfall from this storm, and that's not good news for Hilo. Ryan1000 16:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * FTR, Iwa's was not taken very seriously, that's why it was so bad. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Iwa was also pretty bad because it moved at nearly 50 mph when it passed by Kauai. That meant wind damage was fairly extreme for the short time it lasted. Flossie's persistent intensity streak is starting to end. Latest views from sattelite imagery show that Flossie is starting to power down, the current forecast still holds the storm on to 50 mph when Flossie makes landfall on the big island, but I wouldn't be surprised if it weakens to 45 or 40 mph when it hits the big island tomorrow by noon or so. After Flossie hits the big island, increasing wind shear and drier air should put an end Flossie south of Hawaii. Ryan1000 17:10, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * FLOSSIE, THAT WAS AMAZING. This is a rarity (a rare storm, not a unicorn.) How in heavens did Flossie do that? That was a very historical storm. She is just like Jova in 2005 but a weak version. How does THAT sound? My favourite storm of the season so far. And Ry, how do you know about the increasing wind shear?  Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 18:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * You realize, isn't gonna affect ppl right? Stop cheering. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:10, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's noted in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center'slatest forecast discussion Rara, shear will increase dramatically after Flossie crosses the big island. Dry air will also increase and SST's will cool off slightly as well. If the shear was east of Hawaii, Flossie would be dead before it hits, but it's not, so it has a chance to survive to the big island as a TS before it dies after that. Most of the impacts will be on the big island, but some rainfall and surf is possible on the south side of the other islands after Flossie is torn apart. Also, there's no need to cheer for this storm. It has the potential to be a destructive flood event for Hawaii, and it is threatening people's lives. This isn't anything fun, interesting and amazing to see, but not "fun". Ryan1000 18:18, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

Flossie is still at 60 kts/996 mbar. However, this is not looking good for Hawaii. Bad impact is coming... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:57, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

You mean 60mph right ? becuase 60knots is 70mph.Flossie will make history in becoming the first tc to make lanfall in Hawaii in the 21st century.Allanjeffs 21:08, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Neki 09 came close, but I don't think it technically made landfall. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Neki passed over the French Frigate Shoals to the northwest of the main 8 islands of Hawaii. However, I'd consider it more of a direct hit than a landfall. Flossie is starting to look elongated, and it's holding it's own rather nicely. It could even maintain this intensity when it hits the big island tomorrow, or weaken just slightly to 50-55 mph. That would make it the first TS to hit Hawaii from the east, and Flossie's elongated structure means rainfall will be more widespread, and possibly could mean more severe flooding. Not good news. Ryan1000 23:49, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

Flossie has weakened to 45 kts/999 mbar. However, dangerous surf and heavy rainfall are both still possible. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:54, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Flossie is starting to slow down a little bit, now 17 mph. It's also lost some organization overnight, down to 50 mph, but it's still forecast to hit the big island as a 45 or 40 mph storm this afternoon. I'm not sure how much flooding Flossie will cause when it makes landfall, but I don't expect it to be anything light. The high volcanoes on the big island will really squeeze moisture out of Flossie, but that being said, after Flossie's small circulation crosses the high mountains of the big island, she should stagger to her death by tomorrow west of Hawaii. Ryan1000 11:28, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * She looks to be more beneficial than harm as it will bring beneficial rains to Hawaii that is suffering from a drought right now.Allanjeffs 11:59, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Some of the rainfall could cause flash flooding though, when it makes landfall later today as a minimal tropical storm. I hope that Flossie doesn't cause too much flooding, but it's going to get deprived of most of it's moisture when it passes over the high mountains of the big island. Mountains have a tendency to squeeze moisture out of storms, and then the storms die out when they pass over them. Because of Flossie's small size, I wouldn't be surprised if the mountains on the big island deprive it of enough moisture to kill it as soon as tomorrow. Ryan1000 12:57, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * The forecast path just made a decent-sized jump to the north. Now Flossie's expected to move over most of the islands, though if there's another change like this, I wouldn't be surprised if Flossie's COC misses the islands entirely and it ends up paralleling them to the north. Also, Flossie's down to 40 kt/1000 mbar. Maybe we'll have to wait for a TS-strength Hawaiian landfall on an island other than Kauai... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:09, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Flossie's center relocated farther north than I thought it would by now. I highly doubt Flossie will miss Hawaii entirely, but a landfall on the big island is not certain as of now. It looked like it was on a pretty straightforward course to the big island yesterday, but now it's staggering in all different directions as it tries to make a landfall in Hawaii. I didn't expect Flossie to lose itself until after it hit the big island, but now it might not even hit the big island at all. Ryan1000 16:10, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Big Island did get lucky. However, Flossie could still graze the other major Hawaiian islands, according to the forecast map. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:07, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Flossie is down to 35 kts/1000 mbar. It might not even make landfall over Hawaii at all. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:58, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * She might not even make landfall as a ts if it continues like this.Allanjeffs 19:59, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Flossie looks like garbage on the latest satellite imagery. Most of the shower activity is south of the COC. Maybe Flossie won't be so bad after all... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:26, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow, Flossie is pretty much dead. It might not be a TS landfall after all. Most of the thunderstorms are south of the circulation and moving into the big island. The main circulation of Flossie will move into the other Hawaian islands later tonight and die. So the big island will probrably bear the brunt of the storm, but the rest of the islands shouldn't get much. Ryan1000 22:17, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * She is down to a td by ATCF files.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">EP, 06, 2013073000,, BEST, 0, 210N, 1557W,  30, 1002, TD,<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;"> 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 120, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0,  FLOSSIE,<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;"> S.Allanjeffs 01:17, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Most of Flossie's rainfall is passing over the big island as of now anyways. This is where flooding could be a concern for the big island. Ryan1000 01:20, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Flossie isn't anymore special than storms that have affected Hawaii as a tropical depression in the past. Flossie is just deteriorating with every passing hour. Looks like Hawaii with get some showery weather, but nothing special, nothing like Iniki. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:19, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Flossie
Now it's forecast to just about avoid any sort of landfall on the islands, either paralleling them all oh-so-closely to the north, or just barely clipping northern Kauai. All Tropical Storm Warnings have been canceled. I guess Flossie chickened out at the last minute. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:07, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * That being said, there's been a fairly big blowup of convection right over the Big Island and Maui. Makes me wonder if Flossie could possibly regain TS status before making any sort of landfall, if it does. Hopefully it won't be too bad for them. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:10, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like Flossie didn`t make landfall.I imagine.Allanjeffs 04:02, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Flossie is not expected to regain tropical storm status. Oh well, it looks like 1993's Hurricane Eugene remains the most recent Big Island-landfalling tropical cyclone. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow, I didn't expect this. Flossie was expected to be the first TS to hit them from the east a few days ago, but instead Flossie missed the islands entirely. The big island got some rainfall but hopefully nothing severe. I did not expect her to whimp out at the last minute... Ryan1000 13:03, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Flossie
Buh-bye. Judging by the final CPHC discussion, it's quite possible that Flossie committed hurricane-suicide: "OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING MAY HAVE DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION. AN OSCAT PASS AT 1045 UTC SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:03, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * It should be noted that SHIPS presently gets this thing back up to TS strength by around 60 hours. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:05, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * At least it wasn't as bad for Hawaii as we thought it would be. I'd be surprised if it restrengthens into a TS.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:09, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * Hats off, Flossie. It probrably wasn't too bad for Hawaii, some flooding but nothing severe. Ryan1000 17:13, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * Damage looks okay. Hawaii definitely got a direct hit, a first since 1993. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:59, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * There were no deaths from Flossie, a few injuries, and minor damage. I doubt Flossie will be retired, but Hawaii seems to be liberal with requesting names, although few have been approved (Daniel 06 and Flossie 07 were nominated but not retired). I'm not sure if they requested Fefa of 1991. Ryan1000 19:52, July 30, 2013 (UTC)