Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season

July
It's officially July now by UTC, though we'll leave the above storms up until they dissipate, and by then well put them in the June archive. Ryan1000 00:21, July 1, 2018 (UTC)

GFS with all its fantasy storms doesn't show anything at all in the next 384 hours, which suggests the first half of July will probably be dead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:06, July 4, 2018 (UTC)

MATE.

A BLOKE ON TWITTER SAID THE PPM CRASHED AND THE EAST PACIFIC IS ICE-COLD.

SUPER ANNOYED AT THIS RIGHT NOW.

I REALLY WANT AN ACTIVE EAST PACIFIC. TEAM EAST PACIFIC 2018 ALL THE WAY. The West Pacific have god-awful names this year along with the Atlantic. I REALLY WANT LANE TO BE A LONG FISH. WHAT ARE WE GONNA DO NOW, EH? I WILL RAISE THE ROOF IF THIS SEASON UNDERPERFORMS. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 16:51, July 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * The basin is most likely just in a slumber for now, and it'll pick up again by the end of the month. The developing El Nino should prevent another 2010 (which had an active June and then fell asleep for the rest of the season) from recurring. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:35, July 7, 2018 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Well this basin isn't sleeping yet. This invest has a 10/20 chance of tropical cyclone formation. -- Roy 25  14:08, July 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * F-king pathetic. 0/10. Pissed off right now. I just want heavy shear and dry air to take over the Atlantic now. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 20:08, July 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * I mean.. I think it's fair to say this season is gonna be another 2010. I've given up. REALLY GIVEN UP. I really can't care about the overrated Atlantic this year because the names are sooo bad this year unlike the Pacific which have the better names... NOTHING FEELS MORE BAD THAN BEING PROMISED AN ACTIVE SEASON AND YOU'RE GETTING THE FXXING OPPOSITE. CAN THE TRADES AND PMM COLLAPSE PISS RIGHT OFF? OR I'LL PLACE AN ENTIRE GIANT HEATER INDER THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. I JUST WANT MY LANE RIGHT NOW. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 20:12, July 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Fabio dissipated only five days ago. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:38, July 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mate you're missing the point. Still expecting activity to pick up in late July but it's looking less likely this will be the super hyperactive season some thought last month. The +PMM pattern has degraded, and the EPAC so far is yet to have a single named storm form this month. Overall, I think activity will end up above average for this season due to the weak-moderate El Niño, but without a strong +PDO or +PMM it's not likely to be a record breaking season. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 21:52, July 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow calm down. From what I've heard, the PMM crash was likely caused by early activity last month. This basin will warm up, I'm sure of it. Besides, we aren't even in the peak of the season yet lol. The Atlantic had a dead June and only three named storms whereas this basin had 6 named storms, and so far, a dead July unfortunately for this basin. Anyways, 98E has been upped to 10/10, but chances are, this may not develop, but only time will tell. -- Roy 25  02:03, July 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead.  Send Help Please (talk) 08:57, July 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Great, only time will tell when we get Gilma or Walaka. Just get on with the Nino already! IDC, just give me either one at any strength then I'll be all set. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 12:22, July 12, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Over 1500 miles southwest off the southern coast of Mexico
Another disturbance with 10/30. This one maybe has the potential. -- Roy 25  20:57, July 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/40 now.--GentleEarthquake 01:36, July 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up on the CPHC outlook. Can this become Walaka? ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:09, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
TropicalTidbits has it up as an invest. Should be Walaka if it develops, unless it rapidly organizes by the time it crosses into the CPac early Monday (highly doubt it). ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:07, July 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * NHC has upped 99E to 40/60. I would prefer Walaka to be used instead of Gilma though so I'm hoping 99E moves into the CPac before it gets named. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:00, July 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * Same. Up to 60/70 now, and it shouldn't be named before reaching the CPac boundary unless we get a surprise. Another (sad) mention in the TWO: "and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days before upper-level winds increase". This might only be a weak fail if it develops, sigh. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:38, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 70/70. Could become Walaka as it moves towards and into the CPac but it won't get too strong if it does and it'll pass south of Hawaii down the road too. Ryan1000 00:54, July 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/80. Might cross into CPac before becoming a depression though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:17, July 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Babes this has already crossed into the CPac. Now only at 70/70. BABES HOW THE HECK ARE WE GONNA GET AN ACTICVE EPAC NOW? WE LITERALLY HAVE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY AND NOW SOME ANTICYCLONE, HUGE AMOUNTS OF WIND SHEAR AND YET ANOTHER SAL OUTBREAK HAPPENED! I'm sorry mate but we're looking at 2013. LITERALLY fed up. WPac sucking out all the activity. Awful mames that side. COME ON!!!! WE NEED TO SEE AT LEAST TWO NAMED STORMS THIA MONTH TO GET BACK ON TRACK!! §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 21:19, July 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 50/50. Unfortunately, this invest will run into high wind shear, but still has an outside shot of becoming the first named CPac storm since 2016. -- Roy 25  02:28, July 17, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 40/40. Starting to doubt whether this would be anything at all. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:58, July 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Busted, 30/30 (insert facepalm). Also this has apparently been renumbered as 91C, but that won't matter much because it's going to die soon anyway. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:04, July 17, 2018 (UTC)

10/10. Bye... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:40, July 18, 2018 (UTC)


 * 20/20. Still won't be anything. (Wait, is this another AOI or still 99E/91C? Sorry for being too confused right now, too many EPac AOIs appeared in the past 24-48 hours.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:39, July 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, Tropical Tidbits has the former invest (91C) still up which was the one that epically busted. It's currently located at 156°W. I'm quite surprised that 91C ended up being an 80% bust before succumbing to wind shear... The new system you're talking about is right near the boundary of 140°W (if you see the CPac outlook). So, the one you described is a different system. I hope I cleared up the confusion. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:18, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Thank you for clarifying, Steve. Turns out that this invest is already dead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Mexico
Another one is on the TWO, this is at 10/10 but is also moving into an unfavorable environment down the road. Ryan1000 00:54, July 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/20. What a f-king joke babes. Next. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 21:20, July 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mate I will say this one more time. MAKE. SURE. MY. LANE. BECOMES. A. LONGTRACKER. CATEGORY. 4. OR. I. WILL. END. YOU. SAL. SHEAR. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 21:24, July 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:51, July 18, 2018 (UTC)

Gone from the TWO, I believe. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * This isn't on the TWO anymore. This system was going to enter unfavorable conditions, and I don't see any mentions of unfavorable conditions on any of the three systems currently on the 5-day outlook. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:21, July 19, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SSW of tip of Baja California Peninsula
Here's another one, 0/20 on TWO. Send Help Please (talk) 05:57, July 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one will either bust or become a weak TD at most. Models aren't enthusiastic on this at all. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:56, July 18, 2018 (UTC)

Correct me if I'm wrong but I think this is the one that's now at 0/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * I agree, this should be the currently 0/40 one right behind the 30/40 one, considering this is the one that appears most like "SSW" in the header. So many systems. I guess the EPac is waking up again! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * With the Atlantic going back to sleep and WPac chilling (as nothing is expected to follow Ampil just yet), I think this is EPac's time to catch up. I hope we get Gilma and Hector from both 90E and this one, and also Walaka from the CPac AOI (though that is still 20/20 as of now). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * This has support from the ECWMF but not the GFS. Gonna be interesting to see how this pans out. YE Pacific Hurricane  00:15, July 20, 2018 (UTC)

This is now 10/60 on the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:53, July 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * This has been dropped by the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET. These models are really pissing me off with their horrific false alarm rate while above average winds aloft are dominant throughout the basin. YE Pacific Hurricane  20:59, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agrred 100% Wind shear is sh-t right now and looks like it ain't improving. COME ON GILMA!!!!!!!11 😡😡😡😡😡😡 IF YOU AND HECTOR DON'T FORM BY JULY 31 I AM CALLING FOR SEASON CANCEL!! ALL THE FAVOURABLE IS GOING TO ASIA WITH THOSE AWFUL NAMES!! §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 22:39, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down fo f-cking 10/50. F-CK OFF SHEAR! §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 01:03, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/40. It's still possible to get up to Hector by the end of the month if this and the other 0/30 system develop. They still seem to have a chance and I would be mad if both of them busted. But for now,let's chill. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:08, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Mexico again
And ANOTHER one, 0/30 on TWO. Send Help Please (talk) 05:56, July 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one hasn't appeared on the 2-day TWO, but models are more keen on this one becoming Gilma. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:53, July 18, 2018 (UTC)

If I got it right, I think this is the one that is at 30/40 now. Again, please correct me if I am wrong. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Should be. BTW, I think this is invested according to Tropical Tidbits. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:29, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Rooting for this one to become an epic fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Look for the two systems behind it for development. This one isn't happening most likely. YE Pacific Hurricane  00:13, July 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's been hours since your comment and turns out you are correct. This won't be anything at all, down to 20/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:52, July 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/20, I think? ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:18, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

20/20 but still unlikely to develop. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:07, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * This isn't going to develop at all. Down to 10/10 as it crosses into the CPac. Wind shear is too strong in that region. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico, SW of Guatemala
New AOI, I guess. 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * The EPac is starting to EXPLODE. If all these AOIs that are currently on the outlook develop, we could be up to Ileana very soon. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * EPac is on drugs confirmed. Looks like that El Niño might be kicking in. Send Help Please  (talk) 07:56, July 19, 2018 (UTC)

0/40 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:54, July 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Seriously these systems are taking SO SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW to develop. Looks like we gonna have to wait until the middle of August to see Gilma as the wind shear is TOO BAAAAAAAAAAAD. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 23:25, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/30. I really hope they don't bust, or else the EPac will become more of a disappointment this year. 😑 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:12, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Near 140°W
New one on the CPac outlook located very close to the boundary. They have it at 20/20, but kind of contrary to their percentages, they say conditions are expected to allow a TD to form in the next few days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:33, July 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hmmm, this seems to become interesting in the long run. Would love to see this cross into the WPac later on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:36, July 19, 2018 (UTC)

A day has passed and this thing is still 20/20. Won't be anything, I guess. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:55, July 20, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0/10 and will be off the TWO later on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:06, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

Well well well... I am absolutely fed up with the massive outbreak of wind shear affecting the entire basin. Even the Kelvin Wave over the Pacific isn't working efficiently. Frankly speaking, I am fed up of the WPac sucking away all the activity. I am desperate for Lane to be a major fishspinner, then I will be happy (I will tell you the real reason why I want Lane to be a major but not on here). The names for the West Pacific are you know what? Bloody awful.


 * At this stage, I will consider this season cancelled unless the following criteria is satisfied:
 * 1) Gilma has until 31st July 2018 to form.
 * 2) Gilma can peak to at least a Category 1 hurricane.
 * 3) August must catch up rapidly and produce at least 3 fish storms peaking as major hurricanes.

I cannot be arsed tracking next year's EPac season. The names for next year are atrocious compared to the Atlantic.

§ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 14:06, July 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Like the system behind it, this is 10/10 and won't develop due to strong upper-level winds. And I think you're asking a bit too much out of the EPac. Hopefully it does explode in August, but 3 major hurricanes in August alone looks somewhat unlikely with the way the EPac is acting right now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:15, July 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * GFS is showing two systems developing in early august, so, what do you think? -- GentleEarthquake 19:23, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well I do not trust the models anynore given how poorly they are performing right now but if the EPac doesn't follow the criteria I set above then we might be in for a below average season. It really needs to catch up. I am pissed off. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 20:01, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the models are usually crazy with predicting storm tracks and intensity. Anyways, I don't think this AOI will last. Perhaps the only hope for this month is the AOI with 10/40, and maybe the 0/30 AOI. If those fail, then this month maybe dead, and I hope August is better than this month. This basin just went from full activity mode to dead in a matter of one month. So much of my prediction we would reach the end of the list (don't ask why 😛)  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   21:06, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
Already we have our first TCR, its for One-E. Only change was that the pressure was raised to 1007, and One-E's duration was decreased by one day. -- Roy 25  23:11, July 17, 2018 (UTC)