Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: South of Mexico
Models have this...10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if any of these waves will develop. Pretty high shear and this wave is monsoonal and they need really good conditions to spin up. Yqt1001 15:43, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% 10%10L.NONAME 20:28, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * goneAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: 130 degrees west
...this one, too...10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Long GoneAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
No joke, 30%. 10Q.INVEST 18:08, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Actually only 10%, 30% is the other one. I'm so confused but I figured it out.CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:29, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 10%, looks better than 94E.10Q.INVEST 06:38, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: 110 Degrees West
...and also this one..10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * and gone tooAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Near 140 degrees west
... and another one... 10L.NONAME 15:19, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

bye bye to you toAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
No joke, 10%10Q.INVEST 18:05, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 30%. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:27, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Back to 10%10Q.INVEST 06:37, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now Near 0% chance. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:00, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: West of Mexico
This low pressure has been here for a couple of days, worth mentioning. It is at 20%.10Q.INVEST 02:12, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

...and gone.10Q.INVEST 19:24, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: South of Gulf of Tehuantepec
Granted 20%. 10Q.INVEST 01:27, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested. Looks like it has a decent shot a Hillary. Yqt1001 12:50, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

Finally we have something worth watching in EPac. It looks like it'll become a hurricane in the future... again. Ryan1000 20:09, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40% right now, and yeah a lot of models show a hurricane from this. Yqt1001 20:34, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * 50% now here comes HilaryAllanjeffs 23:57, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Unlike TD 8, this still has a lot of time to develop. I think this might get to hurricane strength, and I wonder where is YE right now. 10Q.INVEST 00:34, September 20, 2011 (UTC)

I would be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane. Models take it out to sea, could become a major there, but yeah, other than that, there's nothing else to it. It can't (and won't be able to) fill the massive ACE hole EPAC is under right now. Darren 23 Edits 00:56, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Where in the world is YE? This is at 70% and it looks likely this storm will form soon. Yqt1001 20:05, September 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The ACE/storm in this EPac season actually isn't half bad, but overall ACE sucks. The AHS has an okay ACE for this time, but the ACE/storm could easily be the lowest since 2007. It only totals to about 5.15. Ryan1000 21:10, September 20, 2011 (UTC)

90%! Here comes Hilary/TD9! Yqt1001 23:35, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * I should wake up and see a TD in the morning.10Q.INVEST 23:41, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow, this becomes Tropical Depression Nine-E or Tropical Storm Hilary. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:41, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 9-E
Here we go! Expected to peak at a category 2 hurricane. Yqt1001 12:05, September 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * And I do wake up with a TD in the morning.10Q.INVEST 12:11, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilary
And it's already a TS. Yqt1001 19:00, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Now forecast to peak as a C3. NOAA really screwed up the predictions of this year's EPac season in terms of intensities of storms. They forecasted only 5-8 hurricanes, and Hilary is already pretty much guranteed to be our 7th 'cane. If we get two more in October, then we will exceed that value. Furthermore, they forecasted only 1-3 majors, but we already had 3 Cat 4's and Hilary could be our 4th one. If that happens, then 2011 will have the record number of C4's in a non-El Nino year and pass that value. This year has been incredible for EPac. In terms of intensity forecasts, NOAA flipped ATL and EPac IMO. We only had 3 hurricanes thus far in ATL and September is almost over, let alone Ophelia probrably won't become a hurricane anyways, given the conditions ahead of her in the next few days and the long run. They forecasted we would have 7-10 hurricanes in ATL, but we need 4 more in the rest of September, October, and November to tie the lowest of that, and at least one major out of them, which I personally can't see happening at the rate we are going in ATL. Ryan1000 20:15, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * My peak is 140 knts. This storm reminds me of Rick for some reason. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:46, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine's 110 knts.10Q.INVEST 00:16, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think Hilary will be a C3, or the record breaking C4 of the season (most C4's in a non-El Nino year, breaking 1973, 1985, and 1995's record (correct me if I'm wrong)). Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:56, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually Andrew, we'd tie 1990's record of 4(they weren't El Nino, but rather neutral, following a strong La Nina in 1989). I'm thinking a 115-120 knot peak, but NHC is being conservative and saying a C2 over the next several days. Ryan1000 02:02, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's trying to form an eye!10Q.INVEST 02:37, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says that RI is possible. Yqt1001 02:57, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nearly a hurricane.... Hurricane Andrew (444) 10:38, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it is a pin hole eye. TS's don't usually have eye's popping out in really deep convection. Yqt1001 12:11, September 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * EP, 09, 2011092212,, BEST, 0, 149N, 986W, 65, 994, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D Hillary becomes the 7 hurricane of 2011 Eastern pacific hurricane season Allanjeffs 12:42, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilary
Here we go! Yqt1001 19:04, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Yes!10Q.INVEST 20:34, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * 105mph winds now. Yqt1001
 * Not so fast everyone. Hilary has a chance to recurve back to Mexico in the long run. The NGFDL takes it into southern Baja as a pretty strong storm, but GFDL and HWRF take it into the area around Mazatlan in the next 5 days. The main difference is GFDL weakens Hilary to 60 knots by that time, and HWRF takes it making landfall in Mazatlan as a 185 mph(160 knot) monster. My point is, this storm isn't guranteed to be a fish and could turn back to hit Mexico as a very strong hurricane, so it may need to be watched carefully. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:47, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Happy Hillary may make people unhappy in Mexico. the main threat with this system is waves IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:55, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Hilary
'''...AND YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... '''Yqt1001 23:40, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. Wow. 10Q.INVEST 23:58, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Darn you, Yqt. I was going to post that!10Q.INVEST 23:56, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * HILARY IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
 * I could barely see the eye anymore. 10Q.INVEST 00:00, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Boom boom. Now at 110 kts from BTK. Looks like a C4 and an exploding one to me. My bet's on 150 kts as its peak. (coming from a really conservative forecaster) Darren 23 Edits 00:57, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hillary have a great shot of becoming a cat 5 Amazing Allanjeffs 01:15, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Is it time for the people of Mexico to worry?10Q.INVEST 01:17, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Haha, all the Dvorak estimates have, Scene Type: PINHOLE EYE on them. I'm kinda surprised at how liberal you are being Darren. Usually I'm liberal and I don't think it will get above 140kts. We'll see what happens though. Yqt1001 01:32, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * (I'm gonna be immature here) THIS IS INSANE. HILLARY LOOKS LIKE TWO OF MY THREE FAVORITE EPAC STORMS OF ALL TIME. THE CORE IS SO SYMMETRICAL JUST LIKE RICK AND SMALL LIKE JIMENA. IT LOOKS LIKE A cAT 5 ON IMAGERY. THIS IS SO AMAZING. CANT WAIT FOR THE adv. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Now Cat. 4 with 135 winds. This is what NHC said:
 * HILARY IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE. IT HAS DEVELOPED A

DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE   AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. IN FACT...LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD BE EVEN STRONGER 10Q.INVEST 02:45, September 23, 2011 (UTC)

135mph winds now! She isn't stopping! Yqt1001 02:44, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Aside of epic fail Fernanda and ill-fated Eight-E that's quite an impressive season: all named storms except one became hurricanes, and for of them category 4 monsters. The question is wether Hilary can top Dora or not. Beyond that, we'll see what Hilary will do later on, maybe turning to northern Baja and perhaps some rain into Arizona, New Mexico and Western Texas? --88.102.101.245 09:37, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * TS warnings canceled...now we have to wait 6 hours for updates. :/ Yqt1001 19:07, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * ( We could wait.10Q.INVEST 19:47, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I had a feeling this bitch was going to take off last night. It was tiny as f**k, in extremely low shear and in boiling hot SST's. This storm isn't done strengthening though, and given the current intensity, we probrably will see a C5 out of her tomorrow or this evening. It's still not out of the question Hilary could affect land, so don't let your guard down. Despite Hilary's extreme intensity, she has such a small wind field that TS force winds aren't even being felt in southern Mexico less than 100 miles away. That's why the warnings were discontinued(temporarily). Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:16, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * 145 mph winds! Hilary is tied with Adrian as the the third strongest storm of the year, behind Dora and Eugene. I see a C5 in the distance.
 * Another thing worth saying is now 2011 ties 1990 with the record number of C4's in a non-El Nino year (1990 had Hernan, Marie, Odile, and Trudy). Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:12, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * For me Hilary is now a cat 5 in my opinion and i can be correctAllanjeffs 00:20, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It still has today and tomorrow to become a C5 until it sucumbs to colder waters and unfavorable shear, so C5 definitely isn't out of the question. Ryan1000 02:13, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * That's going to be harder now. Still at 145 mph. 10Q.INVEST 02:59, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Weakening, 140mph, Not sure if this is because of an ERC or sdomething else. Yqt1001 14:47, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hilary is running into some shear now, but it still is pretty well-organized, and the conditions out to sea may become more unfavorable, but I'd still expect Hilary to remain a C3 until, say 2 days from now. It's really contributing to the ACE, as Adrian, Dora and Eugene did. Ryan1000 19:16, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 135mph winds at 5pm. She probably has reached her peak. Yqt1001 20:58, September 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still a 115 kn – she' s boosting the season's overall ACE. Hilarious! --88.102.101.245 00:08, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * The ACE/storm this year is just incredible; It could've been much lower than where it's going now, but NOAA really screwed up this year's predictions. Only 1-3 major hurricanes? We've already got 4 C4's and I wouldn't be surprised if we get one more in October. We've had 7 hurricanes, and if we get one more, we'll tie the highest ammount they predicted. However, only 8 named storms. So few storms, so many hurricanes. Ryan1000 00:51, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC sounds bored. "ALMOST EVERYTHING ABOUT HURRICANE HILARY HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID. THE HURRICANE IS SMALL AND INTENSE AND BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES CONTINUES WITH 115 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT AT THIS TIME" Yqt1001 02:42, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hilary is holding together nicely in this shear, and will probrably remain over 100 mph until Tuesday, when it starts to recurve northward, as a weakening hurricane or TS, towards Baja California. Ryan1000 18:09, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's gonna hit Mexico soon, which will going to boost the retirement chances. 10Q.INVEST 02:17, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is a chance Hilary will head towards southern California as a tropical storm or depression, or at least a remnant low, but i'm not expecting too many direct impacts from a hurricane like this. Anyhow, it's really ACEing it(18.8 as of now) and the ACE/storm thus far is about 9. Pretty high for EPac, and following what I said earlier in my blog post. Ryan1000 04:14, September 26, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions?

Mine:


 * Adrian - 1% No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements.


 * Beatriz - 10% Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired.


 * Calvin - 1% Was indeed an interesting storm.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are mine:
 * Adrian - 2% I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat.
 * Beatriz - 7% Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her.
 * Calvin - 0% He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end.
 * Dora - 3% See Adrian's section.
 * Eugene - 1% See Dora's, Calvin's, and Adrian's sections.
 * Fernanda - 0% - History doesn't earn retirement.
 * Greg - 1% - Slightly brushed Mexico, but no.
 * Hilary - TBA - Still active
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Greg - 1% - Slightly brushed Mexico, but no.
 * Hilary - TBA - Still active
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine (Until Calvin) <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no.
 * Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired?
 * Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P


 * A bit early but here are mine:
 * Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said
 * Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, but Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore
 * Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it.
 * Dora; 0%: Didn't do much other than RI.
 * Eugene; 0%: ^ same as Dora.
 * Fernanda; 0%: Got into the CPac, but that isn't a retirement worthy feat.
 * Greg; 0%: ^ same as Calvin.
 * Hilary;
 * Yqt1001 20:42, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine:
 * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact
 * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy
 * Calvin 0%

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Adrian-0%, Beatriz-10%, Calvin-0%, Dora-5%. OWEN2011 16:11, July 22, 2011 (UTC)

--HurricaneMaker99 17:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian: 1% - Unless he pulls an Adolph, no.
 * Beatriz: 10% - Some impact in Mexico, but not terribly significant. That said, there is the possibility that she could pull an Alma.
 * Calvin: 0% - Became a hurricane... and did absolutely nothing else.
 * Dora: 1% - Was fun as hell to track, but as Jake said about Danielle last year, beauty doesn't earn retirement.
 * Eugene: 1% - See Adrian and Dora's sections.
 * Fernanda: 0% - And so passes the first epic fail of the year (well, for the EPAC anyway).
 * Greg: 0% - See Calvin's section.

Here are my(official)EPac percentages as of now. Ryan1000 22:30, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 1% - Just because he was so freakin' awesome.
 * Beatriz - 10% - Some deaths, some damage, but enough for retirement? Probrably not.
 * Calvin - 0% - There are two reasons why this thing shouldn't be retired:Number 1, and of course number 2!(end sarcasm)
 * Dora - 0% - Didn't pull off what Adrian did, so no credit for her.
 * Eugene - 1% - See Adrian.
 * Fernanda - 0% - Finally the hurricane streak ends, and it didn't do anything but spin fish.
 * Greg - 0% - See Calvin.
 * Hilary - ?? - TBA.

Here's mine:

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, and Greg - 0% - they're all fishspinners.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Beatriz - 5% - At least it had fatalities and affected land.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hilary - ?

<p style="margin-left: 40px">10Q.INVEST 20:36, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Adrian,Calvin,Eugene,Fernada,Greg 0%

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Beatriz 8% because of the deathe and the damage.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Dora 3 % Minimal damage.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Allanjeffs 01:51, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

Mid-season forecasts
What are you guy mid-season forecasts. Mines is 14-9-4. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone


 * I am expecting a near-normal season here, if not slightly below normal, and I am calling for, say 14-16 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors, but no category 5's. Until Calvin dissipates, I guess the next thing to watch is 08W in the WPac, which is currently Goring by PAGASA and could become future Ma-on. Ryan1000 19:24, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna go to the lower end of all y'all's forecasts and go for 12 NS, 7 H, 3 MH and also no C5's (EPAC only, I hate forecasting CPAC). Apparently, this is close to the CPC forecast of a median of 12 NS, 6.5 H and 2 MH. Here's my monthly forecast:

<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:18, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jun: 2TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Jul: 3TS, 1H, 0MH
 * Aug: 3TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Sep: 3TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Oct: 1TS, 0H, 0MH
 * Nov: 0TS, 0H, 0MH
 * Dec: Heck no

HurricaneSpin's

Atlantic: 16-13-8-5-1 (Maria) ACE=108

Pacific: 18-14-7-3-0 (Norma) ACE=101

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Oh yeah, ATL. I'm going with 16 (±3) NS, 8(±2) H, 5(±1) MH, ≥0 C5, or above normal with an ACE of 110-195, or (assuming median ACE is 87.5) 125-222% above normal mean because conditions are still very favorable for significant development in the season. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * My predictions:
 * Atlantic: 16-8-4-2
 * Pacific: 14-7-3-0
 * Yqt1001 21:49, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the Atlantic will have 14-9-5. IMO, the pacific is more tricky since we already have had the first three storms become hurricanes and 1 major. I would go with 11-12 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-5 majors (I wouldn't be suprised if the season ends up like 2010 and has no majors through peak of season.)
 * ACE for the Atlantic should be around 150. The Pacific ACE should be between 50-80. Suprise11 22:53, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2010? Why is 2010 being discussed? Do you realize that the 2010 PHS an anomaly? The environment is much more favorable than 2010. In fact, if this seaosn shuts down later this month, and pulls a 2010/1977, I will be shocked. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * While 2010 was anomaly (Number of June storms, June C5, lack of activity afterward), because we are in the inactive Pacific era, a repeat will not be surprising, but it is not really expected. And YE, an interment is a burial :P <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:11, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It will be surprising, because a 2010 type season has occurred only twice in the past 44 years. So the odds of an 2010 type season is 1/22.YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:29, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant 2010 in terms of the possibility of no majors through peak of season. For example, despite 2003's high number of named storms, there were no majors. Suprise11 23:36, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given the fact that we already have three major and one cane, it is unlikely that we will have no majors in the season. Most years have a Baja storm that becomes an MH if not an MH fish storm. In fact, I could only find two seasons since 1977 with no MH's during the peak (2003 and 2010). Odds=1/12. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:43, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). Ryan1000 01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well... my predictions are on the worldwide discusssion page, but here are my E. Pac and C.Pac mid- season forecasts. And for the E.Pac, we've seen 3-3-1 already, but anywho:
 * E.Pac:
 * 14-7-2-0 (get down to Max + one Atlantic crossover) ACE= ~105 Net TC activity: 101%
 * C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded):
 * (2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20
 * I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana.
 * For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded):
 * (2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20
 * I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana.
 * For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

Very mid season predictions
Mines are 14-10-6. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Mine is also 14-10-6 (please see my blog ). Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

EPAC hurricane drought
Any overdue areas in the EPAC? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC)


 * YE, Southern California is overdue. Last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858, and the last tropical storm was in 1939. However, numerous depressions have made landfall since then. Suprise11 17:24, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Suprise11, the 1858 hurricane did bring hurricane force winds ashore, but it actually just barely missed landfall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:39, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don't forget western Central America.Cyclone10 21:35, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Agatha last year made landfall in Guatemala, unless you mean hurricane landfall. Then, I don't know when the last time that happened. Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:17, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you use SNM data, Adrian 05 made landfall in Central America. If you use NHC data, never :P. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:15, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant hurricane strength at landfall.10L.NONAME 21:47, August 28, 2011 (UTC)(Cyclone10)
 * I meant hurricane strength at landfall.10L.NONAME 21:47, August 28, 2011 (UTC)(Cyclone10)

Late season forecasts
The peak of the EPAC season is gone, so what are your late season predictions?

Mine is 12-9-4. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:31, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Because I believe we're heading for an EPAC shutdown due to the waters getting colder in EPAC, mine is 9-7-3 <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 12:54, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * I think two to three storms mine is 10-7-3Allanjeffs 19:17, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have an October major hurricane coming our way, and another hurricane also in October or late September. So my call is 9-7-3 as well, with an ACE/storm near-normal or slightly above average. The ACE/storm in ATL will suck this year because we've only had one hurricane for every 7 storms. 2007 had 2 for every 5, with an ACE/storm of 4.6. Even if we do get a lot of strong storms after this date, I still expect the ACE/storm to be below average. I expect the maximum possibility to be 6, and that might be a little generous even so. Ryan1000 14:06, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Over in the ATL forum I said 9-12 depressions, 9-11 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 0-1 category 5 hurricanes (I don't know why I never included majors, but for majors I'm going with 3-4) Yqt1001 19:40, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, EPAC's dead. While sort-of improbable (I give it a 40% chance of happening), we could beat/tie the record low for the # of storms. And EPAC is like... 54% below average in terms of ACE, which is pretty much like the NHEM totals. (ACE/Storm, depending on storm numbers, is sometimes a terrible indicator of the activity). While I didn't think it could happen, it looks like we have a slightly more active version of 2010. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:37, September 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * We may have Hilary of the new AOI and maybe Irwin in october the most to me will be Keneth and that it is for me Allanjeffs 23:56, September 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I personally prefer to use ACE/storm because a season could only have a few storms but incredible ACE, or a ton of storms and a horrible ACE, so if you take the number of storms it had in proportion to the number of storms of another season, the ACE skyrockets or plummets. And this year's EPac season could be on the road to having the highest ACE/storm since at least 1995, if not higher. Ryan1000 20:19, September 21, 2011 (UTC)