Forum:Prediction Intercomparison/EPTPC/2013

This page relates to all 2013 storm tracking. Changes include: using the official track map generator for final maps. We will focus on the Western Pacific but will attempt year-round tracking of the entire Pacific basin. The category scale used in tracking is based on a hybrid of the JMA scale used in the Western Pacific and the Australian cyclone scale (with minor adjustment). The Australian scale is added to subdivide the Typhoon rating, and then slightly adjusted downward by one knot at the original category 3-category 4 boundary. Like both scales are normally applied, the Pacific Prediction Center uses 10-minute winds for storm data. Forecast products are rare and inaccurate. The PPC exists mainly for the purpose of tracking cyclones.

'''The data provided here are not official, they are for the purposes of entertainment and display/analysis for others who find entertainment in similar such things. Consult the Japan Meteorological Agency, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Bureau of Meteorology, or the Fiji Meteorological Service for official tracking and forecast data.'''

Overall storm tracking numbers (000) disturbance [000] storm WP - West Pacific (west of 180 deg) EP - East Pacific (east of 140W) CP - Central Pacific (180, east to 140W) SP - South Pacific (140W west to 135E) SE - South-East Pacific (east of 140W)

// --- CATEGORY SCALE --- // TROPICAL DEPRESSION (20 - 33 kts) // TROPICAL STORM (34 - 47 kts) // SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (48 - 63 kts) // TYPHOON/HURRICANE (64 - 84 kts) // TYPHOON2/HURRICANE2 (85 - 107 kts) // TYPHOON3/HURRICANE3 (>107 kts)

TRACKING DATA EXAMPLE

009 WP11 13 20130808 18 +13.1 +136.0 25 TD 20130809 00 +13.2 +135.2  30 TD 20130809 06 +13.4 +133.5  30 TD? 20130809 12 +13.5 +132.6  35 TS 20130809 18 +13.6 +131.5  50 ST 20130810 00 +13.7 +130.4  60 ST 20130810 06 +14.0 +128.8  65 TY 20130810 12 +14.1 +127.8  65 TY 20130810 18 +14.3 +126.8  70 TY 20130811 00 +14.5 +125.9  85 TY2 20130811 06 +15.3 +124.6 110 TY3 20130811 12 +15.7 +123.4 100 TY2 20130811 18 +16.0 +122.1 100 TY2 20130812 00 +16.7 +120.6 55 ST 20130812 06 +17.3 +119.0  60 ST 20130812 12 +17.8 +117.9  65 TY 20130812 18 +18.1 +116.5  70 TY 20130813 00 +18.5 +115.2  80 TY
 * TYPHOON 11 (UTOR)

SEPTEMBER OUTLOOK

For the entire Pacific basin, slightly below average activity is expected, in continuation with the current trends.

W | C | E TS 5-8 0-1 3-5 TY 2-3  0  1-2 TY3 1-2 0  0-1

In the West Pacific, several typhoons are anticipated. Because Central Pacific activity is uncommon, storms are more likely to form and not intensify greater than hurricane strength, and as such are marked as 0 being expected, although it is possible one may occur in the month of September.

In the South Pacific, no activity is expected.

POSSIBLE FUTURE CYCLONES

PFC ALERT REGION 1 021 WP99 13 20130830 00 +29 +173 +24 40% +48 25%
 * DISTURBANCE (021)

CURRENT STORMS DATA

020 EP11 13 20130831 00 +17.8 -115.6 30 TD 20130831 06 +18.4 -116.2  30 TD 20130831 12 +18.7 -116.3  35 TS 20130831 18 +19.0 -116.1  40 TS
 * TROPICAL STORM 11 (KIKO)

West Pacific

Central Pacific

East Pacific

South Pacific (2013-14)

Outlooks and Reviews Aug