Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
We shouldn't archive this in case anyone wants to go to the HOF, and the betting pools need to be updated every now and then as well. The replacement names section can be archived later, in case it needs to be continued furthermore. Ryan1000 16:39, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Post-season changes
We still have a month and a week until the season is over for us, but NHC hasn`t released any TCR`s yet for the Atlantic. Does anyone have speculations on post-season changes they might do? Here`s what I think will happen and why:
 * Tropical Storm Beryl - 70 mph → 75 mph - 55% - I`m not completely convinced they`ll change this to being a hurricane in post-season, but there`s a chance.
 * Apparently NHC didn't upgrade her post-season. This one didn't pan out to be true. 3 more possible upgrades left.


 * 98L.INVEST (Late July) → Tropical Storm Five - 75% - Initially I didn`t think this was much, but after some thought, I think NHC refused to upgraded this because they thought it wasn`t worth it at that time. Look at this and tell me 98L wasn`t a tropical storm briefly.
 * Hurricane Ernesto - 85 mph → 100 mph - 40% - There is a chance it might be upgraded to cat. 2 in post-season, but I wouldn`t count on it right now.
 * This was verified true by NHC. There's one down, 4 to go.

There`s nothing else I think will happen as of now. Maybe some minor pressure or wind adjustments with other storms, but these are the only major ones that will happen IMO. Ryan1000 16:46, October 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Gordon - 110 mph → 115 mph - 55% - There`s a chance this could be upgraded to a major in post-season, like Rina of last year, but I`m not entirely sure.
 * Hurricane Sandy - 110 mph → 115 mph - 65% - Might have been a major when it hit Cuba.

I could see Gordon and Sandy both being upgraded to major hurricanes in post-season, 98L in July and 94L in September becoming unnamed tropical storms, (possibly) Beryl becoming a hurricane, and (possibly) Ernesto becoming a Cat. 2. I also think Michael might have been a tad stronger, too. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:17, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

I`m not too sure about 94L from late September being upgraded to tropical storm 15, but the 94L from September of last year became tropical storm 12 in post analysis, so who knows... Ryan1000 14:31, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy is almost guarantee to be upgrade to a major.Gordon I would say 50/50.94L in September I say no and 98L a 60 to be upgrade to a storm.Last time I would say that Ernesto was a 2 but now will all the cat 1 having low pressure I am not sure anymore.Allanjeffs 20:42, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Well, we never say never. Nothing is ever guranteed, but I agree it`s very likely Sandy will be upgraded. Ryan1000 21:43, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Florence's TCR out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:34, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Finally we have one...I think the others might be coming out soon. Ryan1000 22:19, October 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Still no new reports. BTW, I fixed all those silly apostrophe things. I was on a bad computer at the time I guess. Ryan1000 18:13, November 2, 2012 (UTC)

I too think there's a chance that Sandy could be upgraded to a major hurricane. Wouldn't surprise me in the least. But I'm most interested in whether Sandy was tropical at landfall. I think it was and so does one of my meteorology professors (and trust me, he knows a thing or two about hurricanes lol...he built his own hurricane model from scratch). There was persistent convection around the storm center and a hint of an eye. Phase diagrams (which are a favorite tool for indicating extratropical transition) showed it as predominantly cold core, which is why I think NHC ended up calling it post-tropical before landfall at least operationally. There were also pronounced thermal gradients, with quasi-warm and cold fronts associated with the system like you would see in a mid-latitude cyclone or nor'easter, indicative of baroclinicity. I think these features, however, may have been associated with the nor'easter that Sandy was embedded in and not Sandy itself. The hybrid nature of the storm makes phase changes very difficult to determine. Sandy very much blurred the lines between what is and isn't a tropical cyclone. -- SkyFury 07:52, November 3, 2012 (UTC)

The fact it was (or wasn't) post-tropical at landfall makes no difference regarding impacts or whether or not it will be retired, ect. Even so, the death toll in Cuba (deadliest since Dennis in 2005), would be enough to can it anyways. We might see a few other upgrades post-season; the one I'm hoping for is for Beryl to be a hurricane. =) That would make it the first pre-season storm to hit the U.S. as a hurricane since 1851, though a storm in May 1908 came agonizingly close to doing so. 98L of last July could have also briefly been named, if you see the image I posted above, it's hard to argue it wasn't a TS, if briefly. Ryan1000 15:05, November 3, 2012 (UTC)

I agree with the ts on July from 98L but I doubt Beryl will be upgrade upgrade the winds probably didn`t come down the surface like it happen with Sandy it have winds near cat 4 but they didn`t come down to the surface.Allanjeffs 19:32, November 3, 2012 (UTC)

I think Sandy might be upgraded, or changed, from being subtropical to tropical at some point when it made landfall. I'm actually not really buying anything this year except 98L from last July. Sandy and Gordon might be upgraded to major hurricanes in post-season, Ernesto could be upped to C2 and Beryl could be upped to C1, but I'm not counting on any of them to happen. I'm pretty sure 98L will be upgraded post-season though. Ryan1000 01:04, November 4, 2012 (UTC)

It seems the ATL is slowing down, but something could develop next week in the PR area and maybe another after that in the Caribbean. The season isn't quite over yet. Ryan1000 00:35, November 11, 2012 (UTC)

Michael and Oscar are out, Michael was only a MH for one advisory, shortest number of MH days for any season since 1994, assuming Sandy and/or Gordon don't make it. Nothing's special with Oscar. Ryan1000 02:58, December 5, 2012 (UTC)

Ernesto is now out, looks like he did briefly become a 100 mph C2 just before landfall after all. There's one of my predictions verified; though I only gave it a 40% chance of happening, I never ruled it out. I still have hopes for 98L of late July to be upgraded post-season, maybe 94L from September and 91L last week too. Sandy, Gordon, and Beryl all have a chance of being upgraded one category each too. Ryan1000 21:01, December 6, 2012 (UTC)

Alberto Helene and Beryl are out. They didn`t upgrade Beryl to a hurricane like I thought.Allanjeffs 19:17, December 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * Beryl not a hurricane? I expected so. But.... Gordon might have a good shot at being a Major. What about Sandy being a Majorette? ID think so. XD Mlp.png Raraah The Awesome Pony Mlp.png 20:07, December 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aparently Beryl was denied the upgrade to C1, so the 1908 May Hurricane remains the only off-season hurricane to hit the U.S. Nothing's really changed with Helene or Alberto. Ryan1000 00:54, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Farewell
Well, with less than 48 hours left of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, I assume there isn't any harm in starting this section a little early. This year, we saw (pending post-season changes) : Meteorologically, this was an unusual year, with two pre-season storms, a June hurricane in an abnormal location, a record number of August forming storms, the longest lived hurricane in 10 years, the widest Atlantic hurricane ever, etc. Impactwise, 2012 will be long remebered, because of Debby, Isaac, Rafael, and of course, Sandy. Despite the wild activity, the ACE was literally a re-2011. And to make things even worse for the Sandy and Isaac recovery areas, I predict 2013 to be even more active...
 * 19 total depressions (could be upped to 21) ,
 * 19 total storms (could be upped to 21) ,
 * 10 hurricanes (could be upped to 11) ,
 * one major hurricane (could be upped to three) ,,
 * an accumulated cyclone energy of 123,
 * $68 billion (2012 USD) dollars in damage, and
 * 327 deaths.

Any opinions? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:28, November 29, 2012 (UTC)

Actually we could get 1 more storm in 5 days base on all the models that are excited in developing that area in thre Eatlantic I think we would end with 20 or 21 depending if this storm forms and the one in July may be upgrade which I am starting to doubt knowing the NHC 2 majors and hurricanes  I am not sure if Beryl will be upgrade.Allanjeffs 03:41, November 29, 2012 (UTC)

This year was a very odd season. Assuming we get no storms in December, we tied 1887, 1995, and the past two seasons for the third most active year ever. With 19 named storms forming in 2012, it marks the first time in recorded history that 19 storms formed in the Atlantic for three consecutive seasons. This is also the first time ever the Atlantic and EPac had at least 17 named storms each. Also, with only one major hurricane, 2012 had the fewest number of major hurricanes in any Atlantic season since there were none in 1994, although tied with 1997. Michael also became a major hurricane for a mere 6 hours, which is the fewest number of major hurricane days (MHD's) since there were none in 1994. We saw 3 hurricanes make landfall in the Atlantic this year (Ernesto, Isaac, and Sandy, 4 if you count Gordon's brush near the Azores), though no major hurricane landfalls (assuming Sandy isn't upgraded upon it's landfall). Last year there was only one landfalling hurricane in the entire season (Irene; Maria was downgraded to a TS in post-analysis when it hit Newfoundland), which was the lowest ever for a season with so many named storms. 2010 had 6 landfalling hurricanes, though none in the U.S. There were also 6 named storms in the 2010, 2011, and 2012 Atlantic seasons that would have likely gone unnoticed if they had formed before the sattelite era. So if these 3 seasons existed before 1941, they would have only had 13 confirmed tropical storms in the entirety of the season. The forecast I made at the start of this year in my blog wasn't that far off in ACE, but the number of named storms and hurricanes I predicted was too low. I didn't expect so few major hurricanes though. Overall, as I and many others mentioned in earlier discussions of this year and those of past seasons, it only takes one bad storm to make an entire season unforgettable. In this year, that storm was Sandy. Hurricane Sandy was a storm without parallel in the history of the Atlantic basin. It really was a Superstorm, and it will go down as one of the worst natural disasters in U.S, and Cuban, history. It will take years, maybe even decades, for New England to return to its former state. To a much lesser extent, Hurricane Isaac also caused significant flooding in Louisiana and the hardest-hit areas will take many years to recover, but it fails in comparison to Sandy. Sandy (and/or Isaac) won't be retired until April 10, in the middle of the 35th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee (from April 8 to 12 in Curacao). A few other notable facts about 2012 include being the first time since 1908 to have two storms in pre-season, first time since 1887 to have two storms form in May, earliest 4th storm on record (Debby), tied for the most active August on record (2004), second-costliest storm in the history of the Atlantic basin (and also second-costliest season, from Sandy), fewest number of major hurricanes in a non-El Nino year since...ever (tied with some other years like 1990), what could be the first time since 2007 and only 5th time in history with pre and post-season storms, and most notably, tied with the 1861-1868 streak for largest gap between any two U.S. landfalling major hurricanes (we still have yet to see one, as of October 24 2005). Ryan1000 15:17, November 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * Like 1992, I think 2012 will ultimately be defined by one storm. We will probably never see a storm like Sandy again in our lifetimes. It truly was the perfect storm, far more so than the 1991 storm that bears that name. This was the northeastern hurricane event that scientists had warned us about for years. It was right out of the Day After Tomorrow. The scale of Sandy is hard to wrap your head around. The wind field spanned 1,150 miles. That's about the distance from New York City to Topeka, Kansas, or roughly halfway across the lower 48. It directly affected the wind flow of roughly a fifth of the northwestern hemisphere. For New Jersey and portions of New York, this was their Katrina. From now on, there will be life before Sandy, and life after Sandy. Many of these areas have a long road to recovery ahead of them. As for the rest of the season, it was indeed a strange year. Two storms in May, but none in July, then eight in August, only two in September and then five in October. Very strange. Just one official major hurricane (I think Sandy may have gotten there before it hit Cuba) is the fewest for a non-El Nino year since 1990. However, I think this year very harshly illustrated the shortcomings of the Saffir Simpson Scale. Sandy was just a Category 1 storm with winds of 90 mph at landfall, yet it was arguably the most devastating storm to strike the northeast since the 1938 hurricane (Diane in 1955, also a weak storm, has a case) and one of the costliest in US history. Forgotten in the wake of Sandy, Isaac also caused major flooding to portions of the Gulf Coast. The past three seasons have been remarkably prolific. 2010-2012 fell just two storms short of tying 2003-2005 for the most storms in a three year span in recorded history and having 19 storms three years straight is simply remarkable. You could argue that better technology has led to the discovery of more storms but I don't think that explains this recent activity. I think it's ironic that many prognosticators have suggested that global warming will lead to fewer, but stronger storms. Well, in recent years, we've had more but weaker storms. That's certainly been true the past couple of years. The atmosphere has shown the ability to produce a high number of storms, but most of them have had trouble strengthening because of high wind shear or dry air entrainment. The latter has become increasingly common. But, again, this year more than any year has shown that every storm should be taken seriously. So many different factors determine how destructive a storm will be and you don't have time to weigh all those factors. When in doubt, get the hell out. Even in urban areas, the odds of your property somehow getting looted or otherwise damaged by anything other than the storm is very small. And a stolen tv set sucks a whole lot less than being dead. What I take away most from this season is that nothing is impossible. You must be prepared for any eventuality, no matter how remote it might seem, because even for areas well away from the coast, any given hurricane season could change your life forever. -- SkyFury 10:20, December 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * The thing that surprises me most about this year is when the "big one" came. I mean, don't get me wrong, I thought we would get something big and long-remebered this hurricane season, but I didn't expect it to happen at the time it did. By the time mid-October came around, I threw my hands up and thought Isaac was the big storm this year, but just two weeks later, our second-most destructive hurricane in U.S. history decimated the larget city in the United States. I did think New York City would eventually get hit by a massive hurricane like the one portrayed in the "It Could Happen Tomorrow" episode on TWC in January 2006, but I never expected to see the hurricane in the end of October. New England is no stranger to hurricanes, but most of them hit in August or September. Hurricane Bob of 1991, the last hurricane to hit New England before Sandy (Irene was downgraded to a TS in post-analysis when it hit NJ), hit by August 18-19. Gloria of 1985 hit in late September. The 1938 storm hit on September 21. I don't ever recall a hurricane hitting New England as late as October 29, nor hitting the coastline from the position Sandy did. And the last few seasons do indeed make Global Warming so uncertain. We initially thought it would cause bigger, stronger hurricanes, but in 2010, 2011, and 2012, we had many storms but relatively weak hurricanes. And the intensity of these storms caught many by surprise. We haven't had an official major hurricane hit the United States since Hurricane Wilma on October 24, 2005. However, every hurricane that did hit the U.S. since then (barring the small, weak ones like Humberto and Dolly), were all gargantuan category 1 or two hurricanes (Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac, Sandy) when they hit. These storms all rank amongst the costliest hurricanes in U.S. history. People need to look at more than the Saffir-Simpson scale to determine the severity of hurricanes. The size, the shape of the coastline, the forward speed, they're all crucial factors to determining how bad they can truly be. Ryan1000 15:38, December 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Global warming causes all of this to happen. This has gotta be a bad season. ME?!?! I'm seeing worse next year. Humberto running up da East Coast blowing the Jersey Shore like JWoww?!? LOL. Imagine that. Big cat 3 major. BUT!!!! This year has been bad with Sandy cheeks. So to top it off...
 * Hurricane-sandy-meme1.jpeg. Does anyone find it funny? And... 2012 is gon be remembered. Beryl. Debby. Ernesto. Isaac. Sandy. BTW, Dolly 2008 was not weak. She was quite reasonable as a cat 2 compared to floppies like Cindy 2011. Mlp.png Raraah The Awesome Pony Mlp.png 20:25, December 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Dolly wasn't as severe as she was initially feared; most of the damage she caused was from crop losses in the Rio Grande valley, not so much coastal storm surge as I initially feared it would be. Anyway, there isn't much else I expect for the rest of this season. Maybe one or two other post-season changes, but other than that, nothing else. Ryan1000 00:54, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance, part 2
With the post-season coming, I'll update my retirement predictions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:28, November 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Alberto - 0%
 * 2) Beryl - 1%
 * 3) Chris - 0%
 * 4) Debby - 30%
 * 5) Ernesto - 5%
 * 6) Florence - 0%
 * 7) Gordon - 1%
 * 8) Helene - <1%
 * 9) Isaac - 70%
 * 10) Joyce - 0%
 * 11) Kirk - 0%
 * 12) Leslie - 1%
 * 13) Michael - 0%
 * 14) Nadine - 1%
 * 15) Oscar - 0%
 * 16) Patty - <1%
 * 17) Rafael - 20%
 * 18) Sandy - >99%
 * 19) Tony - 0%

Since the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season has finally been put to rest, Here is Ryan grand's final calls on the retirements of 2012: These are my final calls on the retirements of 2012. A general summary of them is here: Ryan1000 15:46, November 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - Was fun to watch while it lasted, but it still caused no impact, so no.
 * Beryl - 3% - It gets some credit for early impacts in the U.S, but those impacts were nearly negligible.
 * Chris - 0% - Sure, it surprised me by becoming a hurricane, but no impact, no retirement.
 * Debby- 25% - Caused extensive flooding in Florida, but it just isn't enough for retirement.
 * Ernesto - 15% - Similar damage to Debby, but considering Mexico's track record...
 * Florence - 0% - Unlike our last original "I" name, our last original "F" name didn't do jack sh!t. So, no.
 * Gordon - 5% - Gets credit for impacts in the Azores, but I doubt they know how to retire names...
 * Helene - 1% - Never say never, but still highly unlikely.
 * Isaac - 55% - After some thought, I've decided to go a little more conservative on Isaac; while he could still be retired, I'm not placing my money on it.
 * Joyce - 0% - I have no choice...but to keep Joyce.
 * Kirk - 0% - Captain Kirk will not live long and prosper in the Hall of Fame.
 * Leslie - 5% - Some respect for impacts in Newfoundland, but nothing like Igor.
 * Michael - 0% - Our season's only major hurricane didn't do anything on land.
 * Nadine - 6% - 5% for impacts on the Azores, 1% for how long she defied her demise.
 * Oscar - 0% - Wait, which one was Oscar again?
 * Patty - 0% - Came close to the Bahamas, but it still couldn't cause an ounce of impact.
 * Rafael - 10% - Yeah, yeah, France might get silly with this one, but I don't expect that to happen.
 * Sandy - 100% - Sandy will be retired, the end.
 * Tony - 0% - What's that now?
 * Definitely Retired: Sandy.
 * Probrably retired: None.
 * Possibly retired: Isaac.
 * Probrably not retired: Debby, Ernesto, Rafael.
 * Not retired: Everyone else.

Mine! :D Raraah The Awesome Pony 20:09, December 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * DEFO retired = Sandy.
 * Probably retired = Isaac.
 * Maybe? = No-one.
 * Mehhh = Debbie, Beryl, Erneeehhh.
 * Nah! Not you this time! = Everyone else, that includes YOU, RAFA! :O

CobraStrike's Predictions
 * Alberto - 0% - Nice early storm, fizzled out without dropping much rainfall
 * Beryl - 3% - Caused some flooding, somewhat notable early storm, but little damage
 * Chris - 0% - Really cool storm to track, no damage.
 * Debby - 10% - Extensive flooding in Debby, but doesn't seem for retirement.
 * Ernesto - 17% - Damage across Lesser Antilles and Mexico, but if they can't retire Karl, they probably won't retire Ernesto.
 * Florence - 0% - Did nothing
 * Gordon - 1% - Sand was blown in the Azores
 * Helene - 2% - Two deaths and $17m, so, probably not fit for retiring
 * Isaac - 50% - Seems a pretty reasonable candidate for retirement, with 2-5 billion in damages expected and tons of flood damage.
 * Joyce - 0% - Fishpinner. Lowest ACE of the year award.
 * Kirk - 0% - Hope you had fun traveling to 'boldly go where no man has gone before."
 * Leslie - 1% - Slammed into Bermuda and Newfoundland and did nothing.
 * Michael - 0% - The only major of the year can't make up his mind in the middle of the ocean.
 * Nadine - 1% - Nadine stuck around for a while, but couldn't do much damage.
 * Oscar - 0% - Nothing
 * Patty - 0% - More organized as a tropical depression.
 * Sandy - 100% - Retired.
 * Tony - 0% - Got us to 'T' again.