User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center/EPAC/95E/2

INVEST ADVISORY INVEST 95E INVEST ADVISORY NUMBER  2 CYCLONE WARNING CENTER EP952012 1600 UTC TUESDAY JUNE 19 2012 ...INVEST 95E VERY NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 1600 UTC INFORMATION
LOCATION...17.0N 108.2W ±25 NM ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SWbW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 107 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO IS CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT

 * THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT

DISCUSSION AND FORECAST
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION OVER THE INVEST HAS SLOWLY INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION. STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW APPARENT THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD LEAD TO THE CLASSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT AS A BLEND OF A CWC DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0...A SSD ESTIMATE OF T1.0/1.5 AND AN NHC INITIALIZATION AT 30 KT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM IS STILL FAILRY TROUBLESOME. THE ECMWF MODEL WHICH PREDICTED A DEEP LOW COMING FROM 95E NO LONGER SHOWS THAT SOLUTION. AS OF THIS MOMENT...NO MAJOR GLOBAL MODEL IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF ANY KIND. HOWEVER...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS GOOD ENOUGH TO BELIEVE THAT THE STORM HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. TO ADD TO THAT...MOST INTENSITY MODELS BARELY KEEP THE INVEST AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. THE RELIABLE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY STRENGTHENING BEYOND CURRENT INTENSITY. IT SHOWS 10 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE LIFETIME OF THE SYSTEM. BUT...SST'S ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS 95E TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THIS IS HIGHER THAN ALL RELIABLE INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

THE TRACK FORECAST SEEMS CLEARER THIS MORNING. THERE IS MUCH LESS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL TRACKS. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT 95E WOULD SLOWLY MOVE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY FASTER MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. BASED ON THE NEW TRACK FORECAST...THE RISK OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO HAS DECREASED...LEADING TO THE CANCELLATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT   19/1600Z  17.0N  108.2W       30 KT  35 MPH 12H   20/0000Z  17.2N  107.9W       30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H   20/1200Z  17.4N  107.6W       35 KT  40 MPH 36H   20/0000Z  17.5N  107.4W       35 KT  40 MPH 48H   21/1200Z  18.1N  107.5W       35 KT  40 MPH 72H   22/1200Z  19.5N  108.0W       35 KT  40 MPH 96H   23/1200Z  21.3N  108.9W       30 KT  35 MPH 120H 24/1200Z  22.5N  110.3W       25 KT  30 MPH...POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW NEXT ADVISORY IN APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS

FORECASTER Darren 23 CWC