Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

Major Hurricane Dean 2
Too hard to scroll again. It doesn't look as organized as it did last night (wow it was an evil looking storm) but the central bit is looking pretty evil. It's compacting as it's wind field is expanding. IP 10:40, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It's looking very good in the satellite images... RoswellAtup 10:59, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * GODDAMN, look at it now! IP 11:49, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Damn, this is insane. Look at this visible loop! Bob rulz 12:10, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Btw, it just went through an ERC. I would not be surprised if this is upgraded to a cat 5 at 11am. Bob rulz 12:11, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Just shy of Category 5 (150mph right now). Seconding Bob's thoughts. Poor Jamaica. Wxdiva 12:28, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It now looks like it only might have gone through an ERC. Hell, I don't know, these people at storm2k can't make up their minds, lol. It seems like it maybe did to me. From looking at the first visibles, it looks like it might soon go through one either way. Also, it's taken somewhat of a more northwestward jog than expected lately, and if it continues on this track it will miss Jamaica completely...and hit Haiti instead. Either way, it's bad. Bob rulz 12:21, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Hmm, if it continues on this northwestern jog, wouldn't it almost certainly hit the United States? 71.185.59.95 14:11, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Depends, it's still questionable on where exactly it could go when it reaches the Yucatan area. It could go north towards Texas/Louisiana, or it could stay on course for northern Mexico. Additionally, it's official, Jamaica is now under a Hurricane Warning along with southern Haiti. The three-day track has been adjusted slightly north as well.- Enzo Aquarius 15:24, 18 August 2007 (UTC)
 * CNN reporting that Dean is undergoing eye-wall replacement - Enzo Aquarius 15:35, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Looking at the radar images right now, about nine minutes before the next update comes out (I haven't check the weather channel yet for the Tropical Update), I'd say it's a pretty good bet that as I type this it's a 5. The eyewall is just too small and the pressure is dropping too fast for it to be a 4. I guess it sucks to be Jamaica. --70.127.153.236 17:53, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * NRL now has it at 924 mbars, which is quite low for a Category Four. Still, I don't expect it to up it's winds to 160 mph until at least 5:00 AM tomorrow. Cainer91 18:48, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Why not until 5am tomorrow? There's 2 more main advisories before then still, not to mention 2 intermediate advisories. Bob rulz 20:09, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Uh... for the last 6 or so hours, it's been heading straight for the Dominican Republic... Or am I just seeing things? This isn't a jog. This is a turn. Cyclone1 (20:11 UTC -18/08/2007)


 * Actually it's been more like 12 hours. I predict this to take the extreme northern edge of the current cone. Cyclone1 (21:26 UTC -18/08/2007)

"Announcement to all Jamaicans! Please, before the storm hits take measures to protect yourself:


 * Have a survival kit and at least three days worth of parishable foods and drinking water.
 * Board up all windows and pile sandbags at doors.
 * Gather at the center of your home away from windows when the storm hits.
 * Prior to the storm, consult a priest and obtain an absolution.
 * Pray"

SkyFury 21:57, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Hurricane Hunters just found a central pressure of 918 mbars. If Dean is still a Category Four, it would be the second most intense; behind only Hurricane Opal of 1995, which was 916 mbars. Judging by the satellite pictures and the pressure, I'm expecting Dean to be upgraded to a Category Five at Advisory 23A. Cainer91 23:45, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Okay, nevermind... Maybe at 11:00? It's looking great, anyway. It's finished it's Eyewall Replacement Cycle, too. Cainer91 00:02, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Now 920mbar, but still 130kt/150mph. I'm surprised they didn't bump it up to 135kt/155mph based on the pressure alone. I expect it will probably reach that number at the 11PM advisory, and may be a Category 5 in the morning. 69.86.16.159 00:03, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * 918! Just in from the Hurricane Hunters straight to the Weather Channel. We could well have a Category 5 on our hands. -- SkyFury 01:37, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Indeed, local weather station is predicting Cat. 5 soon. - Enzo Aquarius 02:03, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Just a thought, but wouldn't this thing be prone to strengthening to a level comparable to Wilma or Gilbert after it leaves Jamaica? It's going to likely be passing right over the warmest waters in the Atlantic... The same waters that caused a pressure of 888 mb in Gilbert and 882 mb in Wilma. Experience would show that this thing is going to explode if it hits the same water that caused the rapid deepening for Wilma... LuxEternal 02:13, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

The NHC is well known for being conservative. They don't want to jump the gun. So, even if satellite estimates say Category 5, they will probably be hesitant to upgrade it until Hurricane hunters say, "Yeah, we found Cat. 5 winds in this thing." That's what happened with Emily in 2005. I would be very surprised if this thing is not a Category 5. 918 in a Category 4 is almost unheard of. Opal and Wilma are the only ones that come to mind. Opal hit a wall of dry air and Wilma was in a much lower pressure gradient (and eventually became the strongest Atlantic storm of all time). Unless the storm becomes signifcantly less impressive during the next hour, I would be almost ready to write a letter of complaint if the NHC maintains intensity for the next advisory. The pressure just dropped 12 millibars in less than six hours. That tells me we have an intensifying storm. -- SkyFury 02:16, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Dang edit conflicts. :) It is probable for a restrengthening Lux, The water in that area is quite warm. Jamaica will probably cause a slight weakening to Dean, in which it will then proceed on in the warm Caribbean, allowing a possible re-strengthening. If it enters the Gulf of Mexico, it could even go through yet another re-strengthening if it hits the Yucatan Peninsula. - Enzo Aquarius 02:19, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

If Dean deepens 20 more mbar, it'll set a record for the strongest August storm in Atl history. Cyclone1 (02:23 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * Recon just reported a central pressure of 916 mbar. But, it still only found winds of 125 mph, probably due to the ERC. Anyway, even if Dean doesn't strengthen into a Category Five, it will still cause catastrophic damage where ever it lands. Hopefully, Jamaica will be spared the full brunt of the storm. Cainer91 02:27, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * On NRL's IR, Dean looks noticeably more impressive than Ivan when it was at 140 knots with 919 millibars of pressure. I understand that every storm is different and one thing doesn't nessesarily mean another, but those pictures seem very telling to me. -- SkyFury 02:30, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * If Dean dissipates next adviosry (bear with me), it will have already tied the record for the strongest non-category five hurricane in ATL history with Opal, surpassing the number two record holder of Gloria by 3mbar. It is also the fourth strongest August storm in history, behind Camille, Katrina, and Allen. Cyclone1 (02:36 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * Looks like we may have one for the record books then. - Enzo Aquarius 02:39, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Hell, if it hit Jamaica with the winds it has now, the effects would be devestating, but I have a hard time believing it's not stronger than 150 mph. -- SkyFury 02:43, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

EGAD! Winds have WEAKENED? 145! Cyclone1 (02:47 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * How did that happen? :S On another note, the latest advisory has Dean going a tad south than what has been predicted for the past few days, with the eye grazing the south of Jamaica and south of Cozumel. - Enzo Aquarius 02:48, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

(Bastard beat me to it.) I am officially shocked. But perhaps good news for Jamaica -- SkyFury 02:50, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * (LOL) But seriously, the only way I can explain the fall of pressure AND winds at the same time is the entire Caribbean's ambient pressure just fell 10mbar in the past few hours. That doesn't seem logically nor physically possible, so I'm very shocked. Jamaica may be getting a lucky break, I hope this is a freak weakening trend. Cyclone1 (02:55 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * I'm still waiting for the NHC discussion, which might shed some light on this but even if what you say is true, then the pressure still fell two millibars and did not rise, so...WTF? -- SkyFury 02:58, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I can't explain this. No ERC, the eye is fine. Pressure and winds falling at the same time, that's a new trick. Cyclone1 (03:02 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * Wizard did it? :P Heh, the latest advisory states that fluctuations in the next 24 hours are capable of occuring. - Enzo Aquarius 03:00, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * If you look closely at the satellite loops, you can make out concentric eyewalls, so this is probably why Dean's winds have not strengthened. Also, the NHC relies on the Recon flights to give them data, and the last two rounds have missed the area of most intense convection and only recorded winds of 125 mph. This is probably why Dean's winds are comparatively unimpressive to its pressure. Cainer91 03:02, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * And they are still in there, so they might find stronger winds. And the discussion did confirm the ERC. They also said the drop in intensity is likely to be brief. -- SkyFury 03:14, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It often takes a few hours for the wind to catch up with such a rapid fall in pressure. I expect a cat 5 soon, probably by the 5am advisory. Bob rulz 03:25, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Or it could be the same cause as Erin dropping from 1008 to 1000 mb at teh last HPC advisory. 4.154.7.251 03:29, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Dean 3
Erin was probably becoming extratropical. Cyclone1 (03:39 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * Dean's probably reorganizing a bit. It will take a little while for the winds to catch up. Unfortunately for Jamaica, it still has plenty of time to do that before it hits the island. There is a chance the eyewall could pass to the south, like Ivan. Ivan was originally forecast to cross the island but at the last minute, weakened and veered south. -- SkyFury 04:10, 19 August 2007 (UTC)
 * This is going to be a looong night. Cyclone1 (04:28 UTC -19/08/2007)
 * I'll stay up until 2am. Just one more advisory, just one more advisory.... Cyclone1 (05:00 UTC -19/08/2007)

Is this comparable to the early season Hurricane Beulah? Too early to say? 91.153.48.50 05:39, 19 August 2007 (UTC)
 * I don't think it will be anything like Beulah. Its track was much different. We have yet to learn if it will be like Emily or like Gilbert. It may still never reach Category 5 strength and there's hope for Jamaica. I don't think I'll be sleeping much tonight. Nor will a couple of guys in Miami. But, then again, the folks in Jamaica won't be sleeping much either. Everybody pray for those people tonight, some of them may not live to see another evening. -- SkyFury 06:13, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

Why are the quality of the wind speed probability charts going so far downhill? Now we have a chart that shows only the 24 and 72 hour probabilities while everything else is NA. Jake52 My island 08:21, 19 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Not long for the 11 AM advisory. The core of Dean seems to be going continuously south (just a bit) of Jamaica, I wonder if it'll move any more south in the next advisory. - Enzo Aquarius 14:40, 19 August 2007 (UTC)
 * 11 AM advisory imagery is out, looks like they moved their track prediction north slightly for the core to skim southern Jamaica. There is now a Hurricane Watch for Quintana Roo and Cancun area. - Enzo Aquarius 14:46, 19 August 2007 (UTC)
 * If Deans Eye can keep off Jamaica as some Forcasters are hoping for Over Here in good old Blighty i can see it going in to the Eastern Pacfic in which case DEAN will be Retired Jason Rees

Enzo, on the current forecast track, the northern eyewall will absolutely rake the southern half of the island. There is a chance it could pass to the south, but the closer Dean gets, the more that chance diminishes. -- SkyFury 16:46, 19 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Dean is following with 30 nautical miles of Ivan. Well within uncertainty.  See Hurricane Ivan (2007)216.239.87.86 18:01, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Jamaica is beginning to take the brunt of Dean now. Cyclone1 (21:40 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * It's been confirmed that 81 mph winds are hitting Kingston. It's bound to get worse as the evening wears on. -- SkyFury 22:08, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Has the eye of Dean acctully made landfull yet???Jason Rees 22:29, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

No, it probably won't Cyclone1 (23:08 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * Doesn't have to. It's going to be bad enough. NHC discussion said that winds have been 70 knots sustained and the Weather Channel said gusts were clocked at 100 knots (114 mph) and the worst of the storm is only just now reaching the island. -- SkyFury 00:30, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Good God! Check that, 130 mph gusts in Kingston! -- SkyFury 00:32, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Overall I'd say that Jamaica got damn lucky. Damage will probably be moderate to severe in the Kingston area and on the far southern tip, but otherwise, no known serious injuries and relatively little damage. Hopefully these continued near-hits won't make the Jamaicans complacent, because their luck is bound to run out sooner or later. Btw, it was just upgraded to 150mph at the 2am advisory. It finally looks to be strenghtening. It looks to already be shoring up some of its outer rain bands that were disrupted by Jamaica. I don't see anything that would prevent this from becoming a category 5. Now let's all hope for the best in the Cayman Islands and the Yucatan! Bob rulz 07:09, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Yep, Jamaica dodges yet another bullet. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 14:56, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Having Read the laterst Disscussion it looks like the NHC will be upgrading it as soon as the Next advisory which will probbabbly be released at either 10pm BST or sometime after 7 pm Bst as the next aircraft is due to fly there at 6pm Z. Jason Rees 16:43, 20 August 2007 (UTC)

Batten down the hatches; when Dean hits, it's going to hit hard. Hopefully it's coming ashore in a rural area. -- SkyFury 20:19, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Still 150? Yep. Cyclone1 (20:38 UTC -20/08/2007)


 * How the hell is this not a Category 5? The discussion said that communications problems were preventing most of the aircraft data from reaching the Center, but satellite estimates said no more than 127 knots. Pressure's 918 again. Cloud tops have been cooling. A don't know how Dean could possibly still be a four. -- SkyFury 20:55, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * But alas, it is. Cyclone1 (21:32 UTC -20/08/2007)


 * You know, if Dean loses another 3MB without gaining wind strength, NHC will be faced with the unenviable task of explaining to people how a category 4 can make the Atlantic top-10 for intensity ahead of all those category 5...--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:41, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't think they'll have to explain that, because the Hurricane Hunter just found flight level winds of 151 knots. This is equal to 156 mph at the surface, and 156 mph is a Category Five. The pressure is also recorded at 916 mbars, as well. Still, the NHC may not classify it until 11:00, for unknown reasons. Cainer91 23:52, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * NHC are now Being Picky 155 MPH = 135.5 KTS Which means if you round it off to the nearest 10 it equals 136 KTS  136  KTS = 157 mph  Which is Category 5 I Feel they had better put to a 5 at 3/4 AM Jason Rees

One millibar from cracking the top ten. Still a category four. I kinda hope it doesn't become a category five, just so it can be a record setter. Cyclone1 (00:07 UTC -21/08/2007)


 * Heh, somebody on Wikipedia seems adamant about listing Dean as a cat 5... - Enzo Aquarius 00:13, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh baby! 915 millibars and a tick away from a Category 5. Every Atlantic storm with a pressure lower than 916 millibars was a Category 5 at some point in its life and it is not forecast to weaken before landfall. The last Category 5 to make landfall anywhere was Andrew. It's been 15 years. Maybe, just maybe, it will happen again. -- SkyFury 00:25, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

Dean at Category 5

 * Alert!  Alert! Category five as of an update! 160mph winds! It's about bloody time. Cyclone1 (00:40 UTC -21/08/2007)


 * Wow, took quite some time for it to reach cat. 5 since it was predicted to turn to such a category some days ago. :S It's so close to the Mexican coast too, could be a Cat 5. landfall. - Enzo Aquarius 00:49, 21 August 2007 (UTC)
 * HIP HIP HORRAY the NHC have finally classed dean as a five why they couldnt Classify it at the last Advisory i will never know Jason Rees 00:56, 21 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Amazing what half-an-hour can do. :P - Enzo Aquarius 00:58, 21 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah it is Amazing what 1/2 hour can do i was thinking about going to bed (lol) Jason Rees

Dean is just so amazing. I wish I could stay home from school tomorrow to watch it make landfall, but you can't do that. I did that for Ivan though... shhh. Cyclone1 (01:10 UTC -21/08/2007)


 * Shut up! These things kill people. They are awe striking and are awesome to watch and it's fine to be in awe but this could be a catastrophic event for the people of Mexico. You wouldn't be cheering so much if this was a Cat 5 bearing down on the Gulf Coast. I am in awe and reverence of these strong storms. I live for this stuff, but I don't cheer for it. That out of my system, wow!, I did not expect it to get this strong. This is absolutely incredible. Don't think by my sharpness that I'm not excited. I have a true passion for these storms and relatively rare storms like Dean really get my adrenaline pumping. -- SkyFury 01:17, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I wasn't cheering, by any means. Cyclone1 (01:22 UTC -21/08/2007)


 * Sorry, it's a hot button of mine. The "'bout bloody time" and the "Hip Hip Hooray!" kind of set me off. One look at the IR loop and it's easy to see why people can fall in love with these storms. It's storms like Dean that remind me why I'm looking at colleges that offer atmospheric sciences. I absolutely love this stuff. I just don't want people to get hurt. -- SkyFury 01:39, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

CNN predicting a Category 5 landfall at 5 AM tomorrow. - Enzo Aquarius 01:33, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

Sorry Eric if my Comments offended you its just i felt that the Advisory cat should off been Cat 5 Jason Jason Rees

Is that Landfull time EDT AST Or UTC please specify thanks Jason Rees


 * It's not your fault, Jason. You were excited (duh!). You're allowed to be human. I was just a little edgy for some reason. Yeah, Enzo, the NHC seems to think this thing is going to hit as a 5. What a storm! Wow! -- SkyFury 02:04, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Darn edit conflicts. :P I don't recall CNN giving a time zone, but I surmise it's EDT. On another note, rain bands have been reported to be reaching Mexico as we speak. - Enzo Aquarius 02:05, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * CNN's talking tons about Dean right now, comparing it to Hurricane Camille. - Enzo Aquarius 02:12, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * for those who can not get CNN What did Camille Do apart from get to 5 ? Jason Rees


 * In regards to strength, barometric readings and location. - Enzo Aquarius 02:24, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

NHC updates coming up shortly. - Enzo Aquarius 02:48, 21 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Now theres a surprise they have acctully made a major Shift in the track oh and if anyones intrested Padgets Report for june is now up Jason Rees


 * CNN changed their prediction to 6 AM EDT for landfall tomorrow. :P More Hurricane watches have been established for eastern Mexican areas along the Gulf of Mexico. Still expected to hit land as a Cat. 5. (Very, very ironic, watching continuous CNN coverage of Dean, I decide to turn on the Simpsons. The episode on is the hurricane episode :S) - Enzo Aquarius 02:53, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

Lol i hope u enjoy the episode though i am sure you have seen it before anyways Advisory speed has been kept at 140 mph though looking through the Disscussion they need to have another look at the Data from The plane earlier Good night all Jason Rees


 * Isn't it kind of ironic that Hurricane Dean and Hurricane Jan(et) tie as the 10th most intense hurricanes? Jake52 My island 03:19, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Dean could end up stronger when the last Hurricane hunters come back before landfall. 69.86.16.159 03:58, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Jake, my thoughts exactly and it's a little unnerving seeing as Janet killed 550 people. I do think it looks a little stronger and I would not be surprised to see it bumped up in the next advisory. Keep Mexico in your prayers, guys, this one's going to be really rough. (And thank you, Dean, for vastly improving my sleep schedule) -- SkyFury 04:37, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The chances of this weakening before landfall are very slim, so let's all hope for the best for the people of the Yucatan! I plan on staying up tonight and watching the Weather Channel; hopefully they have someone on scene. Bob rulz 05:25, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

Oh no, it's at 909 mbar now. It forced Janet off the Top 10 entirely and forces Ivan into 10th. Next most intense is 905, shared by Camille and Mitch. Let's hope it doesn't get there, because this is bad ENOUGH. Prayers are needed for Mexico and Belize now. Jake52 My island 07:33, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * 909 mbar would tie most intense landfall with Camille. 69.86.16.159 07:34, 21 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Actually, I think it'd be second lowest. 1935 Labor Day Storm hit with 892 mbar. Jake52 My island 07:39, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

Dean makes landfall...apparently, it did so with 145kt winds and 906 mbar on pressure, making it the third most intense landfall behind Gilbert on Cancun and 1935 Labor Day Storm. Jake52 My island 09:11, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Did anyone notice the satellite loops right before landfall? I think that thing was starting to undergo rapid intensification. I'm almost afraid to hear the damage reports from this thing; it's going to be catastrophic. Bob rulz 10:03, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It's weakened to cat 2, but look at how remarkably well-formed it still is. The eye has clouded over, but the structure could have me fooled for an upper cat 3 still. Bob rulz 15:12, 21 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Cat 1 now, emerging into the BOC. The second half begins. Cyclone1 (20:24 UTC -21/08/2007)

Dean in the Gulf
Starting to get long, so better start another sub-section. At category 1 now, will most likely hit central Mexico in a day. - Enzo Aquarius 21:34, 21 August 2007 (UTC) No words can describe THIS. -- RattleMan 21:28, 21 August 2007 (UTC)
 * By far, the most incredible model run thus far this year. Cyclone1 (22:25 UTC -21/08/2007)
 * Cat 1 to Cat 5 in 18 hours? Yes, I think that's an overestimate. Dean will probably not reintensify faster than Wilma. 69.86.16.159 22:33, 21 August 2007 (UTC)
 * That's not even the weird part. It takes it into the Gulf of California as a category three. Cyclone1 (22:34 UTC -21/08/2007)
 * Sooo...we have a model that A) Takes Dean all the way back to Cat 5 before landfall, B) Takes it into the Gulf of California as a Cat 3, and C) Takes it all the way through the Gulf into a landfall on Sonora...what...the heck? Jake52 My island 22:43, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

Yep, that's the idea. Cyclone1 (23:16 UTC -21/08/2007)
 * Only time can tell ;) (And air flow, and weather patterns in Mexico, and the conditions of the Pacific, and the...) - Enzo Aquarius 00:52, 22 August 2007 (UTC)
 * i think i may be up until 4am again -Doh- Jason Rees
 * yep i am up still Anyway Dean is apparently runnign out of time to make it a moajor hurricane But looking at the Advisorys DEAN will make it too the epac as i think The nhc border is 100W  for the atlantic and Epac but can someone confirm or deny this please Thanks Jason Rees 02:46, 22 August 2007 (UTC)
 * I have heard little about the damage in the Yucatan. Everyone keeps saying "Cancun suffered little damage." I don't care about Cancun! Fine, those pretty little resorts are okay. I care about what happened in the places closer to the center. What happened to Chetumal, Majahual and Belize? Majahual has to be almost gone. It was struck almost dead on by this thing and experienced its full fury. I watch the eyewall pass right over the town on the IR. But everyone seems to say, "Cancun's okay, so we dodged the bullet." Something got hit by that eyewall and little can withstand winds like that. -- SkyFury 04:35, 22 August 2007 (UTC)

By the way, note the redlink up at the top; when discussion on Dean ends, this should be archived there. I've already archived the first few sections since the page is so long. --Coredesat 10:19, 22 August 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Another Day, Another (African) Wave
Excuse the length of the title, but it does appear another wave is ready to come off of the coast, and not only that, but a few models develop an Invest-equivalent low, with practically all of them putting something in the Central Atlantic. I'm not exactly sure if this is really that big, but the convection on land does look promising. 68-100-190-56 13:36, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't see anything of interest out there, but if there is a low with any convection with it and the conditions are as good a NHC is saying they are for Dean, then I could see something forming. -- SkyFury 15:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * This might just be a problem with the models, but I'm not sure (every single one develops it into at least a low, not necessarily closed off, but a low), since it would be quite a coincidence. I would, however, suspect than anything there would have somewhat of a chance of forming. 68-100-190-56 15:29, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * GFS turns it into a hurricane after Dean's second landfall. Link. 68-100-190-56 11:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Doesn't seem too likely, it develops it at a record low latitude. Cyclone1 (14:45 UTC -16/08/2007)

It doesn't, does it? But other models develop it higher. I'm not sure the low would track that far south anyway. It certainly is possible though. 68-100-190-56 16:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * CMC runs it into Georgia/Carolinas as a hurricane, developing much higher. Still can't figure out what it's developing though. 68-100-190-56 17:21, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

I'm going to make a few enters here so that the next post will stand out, ok?

That's better

Anyway, the wave is now looking pretty nice, with the low still mostly separate. It's been looking good for a while now, but I haven't been paying attention. CMC predicts a cyclone from the low and the wave, but the wave shows now signs of development besides impressive convection, so I'm not sure what kind of drugs it's on this time. 68-100-190-56 21:23, 17 August 2007 (UTC)

...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE E ATLC ALONG 32W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SURROUNDING LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...ESPECIALLY FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 16N32W. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-34W...WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE S OF THE ITCZ.

They're wrong about the convection thing, by the way. IP 01:05, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Mention in the TWO. Looks like nothing. Cyclone1 (21:02 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Hmm.. latest TWO is more interesing. Cyclone1 (21:35 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * Hmm. That's slightly disconcerting. If that countinues, it will probably be more the lack of information than any bad news. It could develop, it could be nothing. There's just no way to know. We just have to wait and see. -- SkyFury 22:14, 19 August 2007 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
That blob of thunderstorms east of the Bahamas. Anyway, shear is becoming lower, so it does have some potential to develop. No surface low right now, but one could potentially form later this week. Cainer91 14:27, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * 50% bet that Felix would could out from this blob... RoswellAtup 15:02, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Good chance of Felix, but also probably a fishspinner. 69.86.16.159 17:24, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * TCFA issued. 10 bucks says we get Felix outta this. Cyclone1 (18:14 UTC -20/08/2007)


 * Please let it head for the Carolinas. We need rain badly. 4.152.3.6 20:16, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Don't get too excited, there's not even a low pressure center around this thing and Lord knows we don't need a hurricane down here, just a rainstorm to cool us off. -- SkyFury 20:21, 20 August 2007 (UTC)
 * There most certainly is a low pressure, albeit broad. It's forecast to head NW, then W, then SW, then into Florida. SHIPS takes it to 70kts. Cyclone1 (20:40 UTC -20/08/2007)
 * It also has an anticyclone over it. Conditions are perfect. Cyclone1 (20:46 UTC -20/08/2007)
 * NHC's surface analysis says no low exists. -- SkyFury 21:03, 20 August 2007 (UTC)
 * That analysis is nearly 12 hours old. Cyclone1 (21:33 UTC -20/08/2007)

I think we're splitting hairs here. The point is it's not much and I have heard nothing from NHC saying there's a low pressure. It could develop, but it will be at least this weekend before that happens, it's just too disorganized to get anywhere fast. -- SkyFury 21:51, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Danger area.  Cyclone1 (22:44 UTC -20/08/2007)


 * Yep, we may have Felix on our hands soon. - Enzo Aquarius 23:11, 20 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I still don't think we'll have anything to worry about until at least Friday. -- SkyFury 23:32, 20 August 2007 (UTC)

Worsening conditions. No more danger area. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:25, 21 August 2007 (UTC)

Gone. Cyclone1 (20:25 UTC -21/08/2007)

INVEST reports
Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Not as far as I know. Bob rulz 17:26, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

Interesting models
I don't know if this is important, but I found a very interesting Fujiwhara interaction on an eight day old CMC forecast. Link 68-100-190-56 16:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Edit - If anyone finds any really interesting models, it could be interesting to group them here. Here's one of four cyclones forming (again from CMC): Link 68-100-190-56 16:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 17:19, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The most recent one turns Dean into a cat 5. 68-100-190-56 18:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't rule that out. Bob rulz 18:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

I would trust the CMC on that count at this point. 68-100-190-56 21:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC)