Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome
Okay, this may seem early, but the 2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone has technically began. Anyone is welcome to post predictions regarding total activity here.

Here are my predictions:

South-West Indian Ocean: 15-15-13-6 (DIS,D,MTS,TC) (Mirana)

Australian region: 14-12-6 (TL,TC,STC) (Kate, Alu, Bakung)

South Pacific: 16-15-13-6 (DIS,D,TC,STC) (Victor)

P.S. We missed a freak tropical disturbance that lasted from July 8 - 9 in the SWIO? Lindsay 2.0? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:43, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Betting Pools
Here. Ryan1000 16:28, December 31, 2013 (UTC)

Invest 92S
BWEEP beep beep BWEEP! (Yes, that's a police sound)  We have a highly organized invest Southwestern Indian Ocean. Expect a renumber very soon.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:53, August 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * What the heck!? A storm this early? Well I don't think this will become Amara, it's a little too early in the season to see named storms. Steven09876  T 02:15, August 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Steven,storms can form anytime of year,even if climatologically its not favorable.Allanjeffs 04:33, August 31, 2013 (UTC)

Invest 95S
Now this is looking better than 96P. Image I think this could develop quite shortly, actually. Fred22 (talk) 22:02, October 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now well into the SWIO, I think this could become the first storm of the season. Ryan1000 13:13, October 24, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 1
Now a TDi and is expected to become a TD but I think there could be a small chance of it becoming a MTS Kiewii! 15:21, October 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think we will see Amara from this, although it will probably be weak. I think we need to start paying more attention to the SHem, since their season is about to officially begin soon. BTW, I changed the format of this page to look like last year, with the invests now sorted into their basins. Steven09876 T 01:48, October 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope this disturbance becomes a moderate tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:40, October 26, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 1
At 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg), the depression has strengthened. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:45, October 26, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 01S
The JTWC has now labeled this depression Tropical Cyclone 01S. RSMC La Réunion has lowered the system's pressure to 1000 mbar (hPa). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:44, October 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * This could become a moderate TS, named Amara, but it'll die before it reaches Madagascar. Ryan1000 00:29, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of 01S
Dead. Unfortunately it didn't become Amara. Steven09876 T 00:15, October 30, 2013 (UTC)

97S.INVEST
Another new invest is here. The SWIO is waking up... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:01, November 8, 2013 (UTC)

It has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours per the JTWC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:57, November 11, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 02
We have a new tropical depression in the SWIO; its current intensity is at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /999 mbar (hPa) per RSMC La Reunion. The JTWC has issued a TCFA on the system as well. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:10, December 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Might become Amara, but I don't expect it to do much. Ryan1000 01:43, December 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * I also think we will see Amara from this, but I think that it will only be weak. The Southern Hemisphere has been kinda inactive for this time of year, don't you think? Well, with this system and the below invest, looks like we are getting some more activity in the south-west Indian, while the SPac and the Australian region remain quiet. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 05:49, December 16, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Amara
Hello, anyone here? We now have Amara, guys! The JTWC takes it up to 60 kts.—Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 00:48, December 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's a moderate tropical storm on the SWIO scale. MFR sees this intensifying a bit more than the JTWC, possibly up to category 2 or 3 status, but remaining out to sea while doing so. Ryan1000 13:53, December 17, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Amara
Category 1, forecast to be a cat 3. Ryan1000 16:56, December 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now up to a Cat. 3, and I wasn't too far off with my initial forecast. Just my timing was off... Supportstorm (talk) 21:34, December 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, I didn't expect Amara to get this strong. JTWC now takes it up to 130 kts. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 02:27, December 19, 2013 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Amara
Great, the format deleted my post from before. Anyways, it's an ITC now. This should be about where it peaks. Ryan1000 21:42, December 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Amara is at 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC and its pressure is at 960 mbar (hPa) per RSMC La Reunion. I never a expected a major from Amara whatsoever. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:28, December 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now Amara is at 115 knots (130 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC gusting to 140 knots (160 mph). RSMC La Reunion has Amara's pressure at 940 mbar (hPa; 27.76 inHg). As I said below in Bruce's section, the sexiest couple worldwide since Igor and Julia of the 2010 AHS are doing their great show west of Australia. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:08, December 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not bad. I'm impressed Amara managed to become this strong. And the best part is, it and Bruce are doing nothing but spinning fish, so we can root for them to get as strong as we want! I'd really like to see Bruce become a cat 5, but it'll probably peak where it's at now. Ryan1000 01:46, December 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm also impressed Amara got this strong, but what's even more impressive is that we have 2 active intense tropical cyclones doing a great entertainment show west of Australia! This is like the first time I've ever seen two C4+ cyclones active in this basin. Since these storms are just fishspinners and not threatening land at all, we can root for both of these storms to become as strong as we want! I'm rooting for Amara to become a Very Intense Cyclone, and for Bruce to become a Category 5, even though these storms might be about done strengthening for now. BTW, I also have a new signature to celebrate the holidays. Cool, isn't it? ;) —Steven09876 <font color="red" face="Segoe UI">Happy <font color="red" face="Segoe UI">Holidays! 00:32, December 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * As Bruce becomes the first SWIO Category 5 by JTWC standards since Edzani of January 2010, Amara begins to power down. 90 kts (10-min)/958 mbar per RSMC Réunion, 120 kts (1-min) per JTWC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:10, December 22, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Amara (2nd time)
Still a 90-kt (1-min) Category 2 by JTWC standards, but all the way down to 45 kts (10-min)/989 mbar per RSMC Réunion. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:08, December 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Geez, this really weakened fast! It should be dead by tomorrow or Christmas Eve, but tomorrow should be more likely if it continues weakening at current pace. —<font color="darkgreen" face="Segoe UI">Steven09876 <font color="red" face="Segoe UI">Happy <font color="red" face="Segoe UI">Holidays! 21:53, December 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, JTWC has it down to 60 kts (1-min) now. Hardly even looks tropical anymore. If Amara survives until Christmas Eve, I'll be shocked. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:24, December 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Amara's pressure is down to 992 mbar (hPa) per RSMC La Reunion. It also appears Amara and Bruce are undergoing a Fujiwhara interaction. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:01, December 23, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Amara
Thanks for the entertainment! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:36, December 24, 2013 (UTC)

94S.INVEST
A new invest is on the JTWC website. The agency gives the system a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:10, December 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * If the above invest becomes Amara, maybe this could become Bejisa. Who knows... —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 05:49, December 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wait...isn't this the invest that eventually became Bruce? —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 02:29, December 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yes, it was. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:01, December 23, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03
3rd depression of the SWIO. Forecast to become a category 1 cyclone while passing just offshore of Madagascar. If it's named, it will be Bejisa. Ryan1000 15:36, December 29, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Bejisa
Bejisa has been named by RSMC La Reunion. The agency estimates its peak to be at 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg). Per the JTWC, Bejisa is at 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). RSMC La Reunion predicts an intense tropical cyclone from the storm as it moves towards Reunion, and the JTWC forecasts a peak of 75 knots (85 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 90 knots (105 mph). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, December 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Bejisa is predicted to gradually strengthen and head towards Reunion according to the JTWC. They also take it up to 90 knots, but I have a feeling that it could get a little stronger than that. I've always thought that the name Bejisa would be used for a strong storm this year, and it looks like I could be right! :) —<font color="darkgreen" face="Segoe UI">Steven09876 <font color="red" face="Segoe UI">Happy <font color="red" face="Segoe UI">Holidays! 20:25, December 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think it's developing a pinhole eye...not good, this one could intensify quite rapidly over the next few days. Hopefully it weakens before hitting Reunion. Ryan1000 08:03, December 31, 2013 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Bejisa
Now an intense TC by MFR, 120 mph and 953 mbars. Forecast to hit Reunion at that intensity in two days. Ryan1000 16:21, December 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) per RSMC La Reunion with gusts of 130 knots (150 mph) per the JTWC. What a powerful start to the season! Three ITCs before January? This must be a new record! And the JTWC expects a peak of 115 knots (130 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /140 knot (160 mph) gusts! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:36, December 31, 2013 (UTC)

It looks like Bejisa's small circulation is exploiting it's biggest weakness; it's very easily disrupted by shear. Now it weakened down to a cat 2 with 110 mph and 970 mbars, forecast to hit Reunion as a 100 mph storm now. Ryan1000 21:53, December 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Bejisa is now at 90 kts, and the JTWC takes it back up to 105 kts before crashing the storm into Reunion as a 95 knot storm. They need to prepare for this thing, since it could cause quite a bit of impacts. I hope it won't be too bad for them though. Steven  09876  ✉  20:23, January 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like I spoke too soon, Bejisa re-intensified to a cat 3 today, but the worst of the storm is now forecast to miss Reunion to the southwest. Hopefully that's the case tomorrow. Ryan1000 00:50, January 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2nd time)
Bejisa has weakened quite a bit. It is at 90 knots (105 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /110 knot (125 mph) gusts per the JTWC and has a pressure of 971 mbar (hPa) per RSMC La Reunion, which has downgraded it to tropical cyclone intensity. Both agencies swerve Bejisa southwestwards beyond southern Madagascar and gradually weaken it to oblivion to 120 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:33, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing away from Reunion now, it should die soon. Lots of residents on the island were left without power, but at least they avoided the worst of the cyclone. Ryan1000 17:03, January 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's now down to 60 kts (70 mph) and should be dead by Sunday. Although it caused a whole lot of power outages, luckily the worst of Bejisa missed them!!  Steven  09876  ✉  05:09, January 4, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Bejisa (2nd time)
Bejisa is down to a severe tropical storm per RSMC La Reunion with a pressure of 981 mbar (hPa). Per the JTWC, Bejisa is at 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph). Both RSMC La Reunion and the JTWC expect the cyclone's tropical demise in 24 hours. Also, impactwise, a direct fatality has been reported in Reunion from Bejisa. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:45, January 5, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bejisa
Bejisa has perished per both the JTWC and RSMC La Reunion. With a pressure of 988 mbar (hPa), the cyclone's remnants are expected to stick around for a few more days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:02, January 5, 2014 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Colin
'''ATTENTION! '''We have a new storm in the SWIO! It's 45 kts right now and predicted to reach 80 kts according to JTWC, and it is not expected to threaten land. While it's predicted to reach 80 knots, since its not expected to harm land in any way, I root for this system to go pass the 100 knot mark! Steven 09876  ✉  01:13, January 11, 2014 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Colin
24 hours later, it's an absolute beast of a storm. 95 kt (10-min)/955 mbar per RSMC Réunion, and 115 kt (1-min) per JTWC. It strengthened 50 kts (1-min) over the course of a 12-hour period between 0600 and 1800 UTC yesterday. It just went off like a nuclear warhead. Keep it up, Colin! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:23, January 12, 2014 (UTC)

Australian Region
First part archived. Ryan1000 16:24, December 31, 2013 (UTC)

Invest 93P
Well, well, well. Look what we have HERE TCFA issued, get excited! Ten-o-four and falling with 25 to 30 knots. This doesn't look that organized but TCFA, so I'll go with it. Fred22 (talk) 22:02, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 02F
I wouldn't get too excited as the TCFA has been cancelled. I'm not actually too sure that this is 02F? Anyway, if it is, it has a low chance of becoming a TS by Nadi Kiewii! 17:25, October 22, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of 02F
Gone...

Invest 96P
Mmmm, not so much. Looks pretty...uhh...not good. -Proximity to 93P -Just no Fred22 (talk) 22:02, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F
Now TD 03F, very low chance of it becoming a TC and current satellite images show that it doesn't have that much convection Kiewii! 17:30, October 22, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of 03F
Gone... Kiewii! 15:58, October 23, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F (2nd time)
Back again... Kiewii! 15:24, October 25, 2013 (UTC)

It got renumbered (see below). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:45, October 26, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F
With a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa), a new tropical depression has come. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:40, October 26, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of 04F
It degenerated. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:44, October 27, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07F
Guys, we need to start paying more attention to the SPAC. We missed Tropical Depression 05F and Tropical Disturbance 06F entirely. But we now have Tropical Disturbance 07F, which has a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg) per RSMC Nadi, which gives it a low chance of getting named in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:38, January 3, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07F
Tropical Disturbance 07F is intensifying. RSMC Nadi has lowered the system's pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg) and upgraded it to tropical depression status. Meanwhile, the JTWC has labeled the cyclone Invest 90P and gives it a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. RSMC Nadi gives Tropical Depression 07F a low to moderate chance of becoming a named tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:58, January 5, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Ian
For the first time in about 11 months, the SPAC has produced a named storm (Sandra does not count)! Cyclone Ian (as named by RSMC Nadi) has reached Category 1 intensity on the Australian scale with an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /995 mbar (hPa; 29.38 inHg). On the JTWC side, the agency has designated the storm Cyclone 07P, with one-minute sustained winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h). The JTWC forecast shows Ian slicing through Fiji and reaching a peak intensity of 50 knots (60 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with hurricane-force gusts of 65 knots (75 mph). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:42, January 6, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian
Now a very powerful 120 kt storm, predicted to go up to 125 kts before weakening according to JTWC. Steven 09876  ✉  01:18, January 11, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Well, I usually wait four storms to start this section, and it now looks like I can (even if only a couple names deserve retirement).

My predictions:


 * 1) Alessia (AUS) - 10% - Rainfall in the Gulf of Carpentaria was a little heavy, but that is contrasted by Alessia's lack of damage elsewhere. I usually give a storm like Alessia a 1%, but considering how lenient Australia is on retirement...
 * 2) Amara (SWIO) - 0% - Name cannot be retired.
 * 3) Bruce (AUS) - 5% - Bruce did produce some small effects on Indonesia and Cocos Islands, but those will very likely not earn it retirement, especially if no damages or deaths were reported. The stunt Bruce performed of reaching Category 5 intensity after crossing into the SWIO will not get it the boot either.
 * 4) Christine (AUS) - 50% - I may be going a little overboard here, but the city of Wickham in Australia considers this storm the worst storm in recent memory, and further down south, record heat was caused. Moomba nearly broke their record high, and a fire ban was issued for all of Southern Australia. Despite not causing any deaths or damage, this is Australia we are talking about, and if Rusty last year got the boot, Christine may have a decent chance as well.
 * 5) Bejisa (SWIO) - 0% - See Amara.
 * 6) Ian (SPAC) - TBA - We will see what Ian does on Fiji.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:42, January 6, 2014 (UTC)

Knowing Australia, Christine is definitely going to be retired, but I don't expect anything else to go as of yet. Ryan1000 14:19, January 6, 2014 (UTC)

Here's mine:

South-West Indian Ocean

 * Names can't be retired here. Duh!

Australian Region

 * Alessia: 5% - Not enough impact in Australia.
 * Bruce: 1% - 0.5% for impacts in Indonesia and Cocos Islands, and bonus points for being an incredibly awesome storm that reached C5 intensity without causing huge danger for landmasses.
 * Christine: 50% - I might be going EXTREMELY overboard here (I'm kidding, geez!) but since Wickham called this storm one of their worst in recent memory, an unusual heat wave struck just south of the storm, and how Australia is with retirements, I'm going with a 50/50 chance (same percentages as Andrew).

South Pacific

 * Ian: ? - Still active

Steven 09876  ✉  01:43, January 11, 2014 (UTC)