Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

Non-tropical low
31.6N 73.9W, off the Carolina coast. This hasn't been designated by NRL, but it appears to be transitioning to warm core according to the cyclone phase diagrams. SAB has issued Herbert-Poteat numbers of ST2.5/2.5 for the system. --Coredesat 18:50, 7 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I've been watching this storm develop for a while. It's a little lacking right now. All it needs in convection. Then, maybe this will be our next Ana. Cyclone1 (20:54 UTC -7/05/2007)

(moved from Talk:Main Page) Who knew I'd be the first one to post. On Friday, the model guidance was indicating an occluded cyclone would form in the subtropical Atlantic east of the Bahamas a bit too far from the Gulf Stream for subtropical cyclogenesis near the 72nd meridian (500 hPa-surface temp differences of only 34C, which is neutral moist on a sounding). However, the models changed their track to one parallel and closer to the Gulf Stream, which significantly increases the chance of ST genesis. Temperature differences between the 500 hPa level (20000 feet) and the sea surface temps in the Gulf Stream exceed 40C (unstable moist), which is enough to induce thunderstorms. Sure enough, look what's happenning this afternoon northeast of Florida, with shallow to moderate convection filling the vicinity of the low. Able of 1951 formed in a similar manner, and it became a category 3 hurricane. The track of this cyclone has a chance to be similar, and if it can become a subtropical/tropical storm, it may not shear as badly as the current guidance is suggesting. One of the satellite centers, as of 18z, is already classifying it as an ST2.5 (subtropical storm), and ship reports indicated 45 knot winds around its circulation today. It's been a while since we had a May subtropical storm...since the mid-1970s if I remember correctly. Thegreatdr 22:15, 7 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Really? I read the tropical discussion and it said the storm was going to start to weaken soon, but the NCEP model tells a different story. I'm not giving up on this storm. Whether it forms or not, it's gonna have the same effect on land. Alpha in 1972 is what you were thinking of. Cyclone1 (01:03 UTC -8/05/2007)


 * FYI, SSD (Satellite Services Division) already has 90L as a subtropical storm, so unless NHC NOAA is going conservative, I'm assuming that this storm is indeed Andrea. -- This unsigned comment was added by 71.7.209.115 22:38, 7 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Interesting. --Ajm81 23:21, 7 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Okay what the frick? It would be May 8 if I'm not mistaken. The season doesn't start for another three weeks, surely we don't have something forming now. -- Hurricane Eric 21:13, 8 May 2007 (UTC)

Latest TWD forecasts weakening as it moves toward the Georgia-Florida border. --Coredesat 08:32, 8 May 2007 (UTC)


 * New convection is developing very near its center. looks really impressive now! -- WmE 12:14, 8 May 2007 (UTC)

WONT41 KNHC 081346 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ FORECASTER KNABB 

– NSLE 13:53, 8 May 2007 (UTC)

90L.INVEST

 * Officially 90L. – NSLE 14:19, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * NRL saying 50kts. Furthermore recon scheduled for tomorrow. -- WmE 14:23, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * The only thing keeping this from being Andrea at this point I think (if it matters) is the lack of solid convective bands. It has definitely taken the shape of a subtropical or tropical storm. However, it seems to be a fair ways away from taking on the bands. I give it a 30% chance of becoming Andrea right now. CrazyC83 15:03, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * All it really needs is a decent blow up of convection (which is likely, considering the fact that its moving slowly over the Gulf stream). If that were to happen, I think we'd have ourselves an Andrea. Cyclone1 (18:55 UTC -8/05/2007)

Starting to look better. Cyclone1 (20:10 UTC -8/05/2007)
 * Still quite exposed in the center of the storm though. CrazyC83 21:06, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * But, it's getting its act together. The Weather Channel insists on calling it a subtropical storm, when it clearly is not official. Maybe one day the NHC will just go ahead and call it Andrea. Or will this be the third year in a row with a post analisys storm? (Analysis? Analaz... I can't spell.) Cyclone1 (22:06 UTC -8/05/2007)


 * I'm actually going to be really disappointed when this thing doesn't develop. We all love rare things. Offseason storms are a good example. 2003's Ana seems like a long time ago and I feel that itching desire for a preseason storm. Deep down, I know it's not going to happen, but to get this close...it's almost painful you know. I'm not counting the storm out yet, but NHC seems pretty convinced of this thing not making much noise and I'm starting to lose conviction. The satellite images aren't very compelling and when the NHC says "significant development not expected" that usually means it's not going to happen. I hate to be the party crasher, but don't get you hopes up. I personally think it's cool that we're even talking about an Invest on May 8! -- SkyFury 23:17, 8 May 2007 (UTC) (People on regular Wikipedia know me better as HurricaneEric)
 * Oh, hey Eric. Like the new name. But anyway, I feel exactly the same way. I was crossing my fingers and hoping and praying that this would form, just for the sake of it being a pre-season storm. But, I've had fun talking about something this early. I missed the S. Atl INVEST last February and I missed the April mini-noreaster/INVEST weirdo storm no-one could really find. So, this is the earliest in a season I've ever talked about an INVEST, so... it was something to do. However, just so I don't become depressed, I'm going to remain in denial. It'll form, guys! It'll become Hurricane Andrea! Yeah! Cyclone1 (00:09 UTC -9/05/2007)
 * But, RECON is still flying out tomorrow, so... not all hope is lost. Cyclone1 (00:10 UTC -9/05/2007)
 * First RECON flight on May 9. Not bad, I'd say. Bob rulz 05:58, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

SAB Hebert-Poteat numbers up to ST3.0. --Coredesat 09:09, 9 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Recon has just taken off. The plane will reach the storm in about 2 hours. The convection got cooler during the last hours and the center has moved under some deeper convection. Maybe it will be enough to warm the center a little bit. -- WmE 09:59, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB -- WmE 13:07, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Welcome to the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, three weeks early! (That assumes they follow through with current trends) I guess Andrea was so anxious she couldn't wait for June 1st! She is in a different spot than her predecessors though... CrazyC83 13:17, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Well that was unexpected. We may have something here. This is crazy. Hurricane season is still three weeks away. -- SkyFury 13:24, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

01L.ANDREA
Now listed as 01L.Andrea on NRL. CrazyC83 13:43, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * There are still no warnings out yet though. -- SkyFury 14:00, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Andrea
Whoa, hello! Not anymore! We have Andrea: 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091443 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER  1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL012007 1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. -- SkyFury 15:10, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Yay, the season has begun! RaNdOm26 14:53, 9 May 2007 (UTC)
 * It's a subtropical storm, so I changed the header accordingly. --Coredesat 14:54, 9 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Hmm, well it's already posing a threat to the USA, it's moving west. RaNdOm26 15:15, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks pretty good right now, I doubt it'll get any stronger though. But that's good, since it's heading towards land. Maybe it'll put some of the fires down here. We need rain! Cyclone1 (19:20 UTC -9/05/2007)


 * From what I've heard, significant rain is not expected to move inland. However, if it becomes more organized, things could still change. This storm could end up being beneficial, to help ease the drought in that area. Bob rulz 19:33, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

Meh, I think I'm too far south to get any rain from it anyway. Cyclone1 (20:03 UTC -9/05/2007)

Feels like summer, doesn't it? The trough that spawned Andrea (now to her east) was extremely vigorous for this time of year. The wind shear in the Caribbean is stiff, but all along the east coast, it's relatively mild. That trough really weakened the shear and left us little Andrea. Three weeks early. I keep looking at the date on my watch. Am I the only one struck by the fact that this is just the sixth time in the past 30 years that this has happened. That's an average of twice a decade. Ah the wonders of the Atlantic. -- SkyFury 22:08, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * You know, Andrea is the second storm this decade to form before June, so your statistics are dead on. However, I still hit the roof when it was named. I had actually counted this storm out this morning. I hate that, as soon as I count a storm out, it forms, but if I swear it'll form, it dissipates. Example of the latter: Last year an August INVEST that I actually predicted to reach Emily-like proportions dissipated. I still feel kinda dumb for that... but now I'm rambling. Cyclone1 (23:29 UTC -9/05/2007)

Looks like it'll just be a statistic, since it currently looks like crap. The dry air is wreaking havoc on the convection, and convection is limited to the southeastern quadrant. Pressure up to 1004 hPa at 2 AM. --Coredesat 06:01, 10 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Poor Andrea. The storm has a very etherial look to it. I've seen tropical storms that looked worse but were still tropical storms for a couple of days. (Lorenzo, 2001, is a good example). We were hoping Andrea could help put out some of the fires in the southeast, but it looks like that's not going to happen. NHC makes mention in their last discussion of an upper level low that could be a wild card in the intensity forecast. Not sure what that's about. -- SkyFury 13:34, 10 May 2007 (UTC)
 * My best guess is that the ULL is what's causing the shear over Andrea. --Coredesat 16:11, 10 May 2007 (UTC)

Subtropical depression at 11 AM, remnant low forecast in 36 hours, though it might as well be one now given that the entire circulation is choked with dry air, except for a few patches of convection far to the northeast of the center. --Coredesat 16:11, 10 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Just as an interesting note, check this out. It says that 12 hours out, it's 5% more likely to be a tropical storm than a tropical depression. What's up with that? Cyclone1 (20:10 UTC -10/05/2007)
 * Last advisory. --Coredesat 02:50, 11 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Does anyone see any chance of reorganazation? It doesn't look like it to me.  --Galaxy001talk 04:07, 11 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Don't write her off. Convection increased over the last hours, maily due to reduced shear. Nice banding started also. Looks like a REAL tropical storm. She may make an comeback. -- WmE 15:10, 11 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Sorry guys, Andrea's done. May isn't usually a very hospitable month to storms. Wait three weeks. -- SkyFury 16:43, 11 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Actually, the TWD mentions that it appears to be trying to gain tropical characteristics. SAB is now issuing Dvorak fixes on it (not Hebert-Poteat), and gave it T1.0. However, there is a cold front that should bring short order to it in a little while. --Coredesat 18:53, 11 May 2007 (UTC)

It actually looks better now than it ever has. Cyclone1 (18:57 UTC -11/05/2007)

Remnant low
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement says no intensification is expected, but they're sending a plane tomorrow if needed to the remnent. Could it live that long? Jake52 My talk 21:26, 11 May 2007 (UTC)


 * God bless her, she's tryin' ;) -- SkyFury 21:45, 11 May 2007 (UTC)

She's trying to plan a comeback tour. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 22:21, 11 May 2007 (UTC)


 * It says no further intensification is expected, but tropical development is still very possible. I don't think anyone ever foresaw Andrea re-organizing like this. Cyclone1 (00:33 UTC -12/05/2007)


 * Tropical cyclones are fickle creatures. They can certainly pull things out of their own bag of tricks, even when we set them off as dead... CrazyC83 00:53, 12 May 2007 (UTC)


 * The pressure is falling. 1004mbar. Cyclone1 (12:54 UTC -12/05/2007)

Wow! Look at her! ! She's looking more and more tropical. However, the most shocking part of this picture is the insane amount of smoke! *cough hack* I think I'm catching lung cancer down here. Cyclone1 (13:02 UTC -12/05/2007)


 * Here is the same image for those who may be reading this later. Cyclone1 (13:11 UTC -12/05/2007)
 * Newest Dvorak fixes are T1.5. She's approaching tropical depression strength. -- WmE 16:49, 12 May 2007 (UTC)


 * New STDS issued, saying it could be a TD at any time but the Recon flight was canceled due to resource issues (understandable as it is not hurricane season). CrazyC83 17:20, 12 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Question: If it peaks as a subtropical storm, but reaches tropical depression status, is it Tropical Storm Andrea or Subtropical Storm Andrea. It was never a tropical storm, but was technically still tropical. Just wondering. Cyclone1 (02:06 UTC -13/05/2007)
 * It won't be a tropical anything now. Off of NRL and of NHC. Jake52 My talk 19:10, 14 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, now we await Barry's arrival. Will he be pre-season? If so, we're in for quite a season. Cyclone1 (20:04 UTC -14/05/2007)
 * Don't count on it. -- SkyFury 13:39, 16 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Don't be surprised if the latter part of the track of Andrea extends farther than the advisories did as a tropical depression. They'll likely include its initial and latter extratropical stages as well.  Thegreatdr 17:24, 17 May 2007 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
This just appeared on NRL, 31.1N 72.7W. I have no idea why; it's an extratropical low about to be absorbed by a front, similar to the extratropical remnant of Debby last year (it fired very deep convection as it was being absorbed). --Coredesat 15:02, 18 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah I agree. I don't know why this is an invest either. -- WmE 17:16, 18 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Hey, its two INVESTS so far. That's saying something. We'll see what happens with 91L. Maybe the INVEST isn't even the gale. Maybe it's the blob near the Bahamas. Kind of like what Beryl's INVEST did, split into two sepreate storms, the less organized of which formed (operationally). Cyclone1 (21:04 UTC -18/05/2007)
 * It's gone from NRL already. It's been absorbed by the front. --Coredesat 01:18, 19 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Not surprising. Cyclone1 (00:21 UTC -20/05/2007)

AoI:05W3A - Southwest Caribbean
If we're not going to do the whole AoI thing, then let this be the last one. Just hear me out. This image clearly shows a lot of convection north of Panama. Check out the what the TWD says.

CARIBBEAN SEA... A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A 1008 MB SFC LOW LOCATED NEAR 11N80W AT 20/1800 UTC. THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS CLEARLY DEFINED ON SURFACE DATA AS WELL AS ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOWED MODERATE ELY TRADES E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND LIGHT NELY WINDS TO THE W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/LOW. </tt>

I checked the NAM models. This model clearly shows a lot of activity in the area, including a well defined tropical low pressure making landfall in Nicaragua around Wednesday. I'm sure the temps are up, very little sheer. Maybe an INVEST? Or am I just bored out of my mind? Cyclone1 (23:54 UTC -20/05/2007)


 * Well, look at the last surface forecasts. They show the low crossing over into the EPac in about 3 days. -- WmE 06:40, 21 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Definitly looking good. Nice persistent and deep convection. Probably more a threat for the EPac though. -- WmE 18:02, 21 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Your right. It now looks more like it's gonna head out to sea. Lilac DownDeep 19:16, 21 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Hmm, I guess you're right. Looked like it could form before it crossed over, but now it's loopking like it'll wait. It looks like it'll definitely become something somewhere though. Cyclone1 (20:10 UTC -21/05/2007)

8:05 TWD:  CARIBBEAN SEA... SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES WITH LITTLE APPARENT MOVEMENT. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N80W TO 16N82W TO 10N82W WITH HINTS THAT A LOW MAY BE PRESENT AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE TROUGH AXIS SOUTH OF 14N. THE GFS DOES SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TRY '''TO FORM. ''' THERE EXISTS QUITE LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH THE NE PACIFIC ITCZ WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED MONSOON TROUGH REACHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG WITH LOW TROPOSPHERIC WIND SHEAR SOUTH OF 15N ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND WOULD LIKELY ALLOW FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS IF THIS DEVELOPS...SUBSTANTIAL RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. </tt> -- RattleMan 04:39, 22 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Now THAT caught my attention! Y'know, after the last three years of watching these hurricanes, I gotta say now that NOTHING is EVER impossible! What'll happen next? A Category 5 in June? Lilac DownDeep 16:56, 22 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Wow, calm down. All he said is that the formation of a cyclone is possible. But right now it's just a trough moving westward right into central America. An active preseason doesn't result in a hyperactive season. -- WmE 18:34, 22 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Meh, nevermind. It looks like it's crossing Panama, so it'll likely only be an EPAC anomaly. Cyclone1 (22:57 UTC -22/05/2007)

Yep, looks like it. "NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH IS EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AFTER PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.</tt>" Cyclone1 (17:05 UTC -23/05/2007)
 * Yeah sorry. I tend to loose my head at even the slightest (spelling?) chance of an off-season storm. I'll try and not do it next time. Heh, well that storm that's now in the EPAC has a chance to pass through rather warm waters I have a feeling it will explode soon. Lilac DownDeep 15:45, 24 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I agree, looks like this could be a potential threat for Mexico. Cyclone1 (16:59 UTC -24/05/2007)
 * Well it certainly won't explode. However there is a decent chance of this becoming our first EPac storm. Given it can seperate from the ITCZ and conditions remain well. The SST are very hot though. -- WmE 18:37, 24 May 2007 (UTC)

Whoa! Look at the model now! It shows two lows forming from this. One is our EPAC friend, and the other... is in the Caribbean heading northwest. Both look the same. That's creepy, maybe it might be an Atlantic issue too... Cyclone1 (13:53 UTC -25/05/2007)
 * Well it is something to watch. But until other models show this low forming I'm sceptical about this to happen. The fact that the NAM has been consistent for four runs with that low is remarkable though. -- WmE 14:52, 25 May 2007 (UTC)
 * As I speak several other models are showing a weak low developing in this area. Convectrion in this area is popping too. Looks interesting. -- WmE 11:21, 26 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks like Barry can't handle the fact that little sis Andrea was a pre-season storm. He's trying desperatley to form before June 1st. (Sorry, I give tropical cyclones human like qualities) Cyclone1 (15:05 UTC -26/05/2007)

Looks like models may be correct on this one. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND NORTHWARD FROM THE COLOMBIA COAST TO 18N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. A SURFACE LOW MAY FORM IN THE VICINITY OF 12N78W OVER THE 24 HOURS.</tt> Cyclone1 (20:53 UTC -26/05/2007)


 * The blob is starting to look pretty good. Floater 3 has it as an Invest.---CWY2190talkcontribs 23:08, 26 May 2007 (UTC)


 * It's dying. Models are calling for dissipation tomorrow. Crap, I was hoping maybe we could have two pre-season storms. Cyclone1 (02:29 UTC -28/05/2007)


 * It's about to not be pre-season anymore. Season starts in three days. -- SkyFury 04:31, 29 May 2007 (UTC)


 * It's not like a storm will form (rhyme!) right on June the first, but I do anxiously (spelling?) await that day. I'm curious as to what June might give us, a bucket of flowers, or a bucket of storms? Although both usually come at the same time.... Lilac DownDeep 12:53, 30 May 2007 (UTC)

Possible sfc low in the Carribean
This is from TD02E Discussion 3: THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD PARTLY CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HR...AND WITH A SURFACE LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 48-72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH THE PROVERBIAL SQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN.</tt>

Something to watch. – <font color="#002BB8">NSLE 14:25, 30 May 2007 (UTC)


 * SSD put Floater 2 on it and labeled it an invest. Even if it doesnt develop it will bring some much needed rain to Florida. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 16:03, 30 May 2007 (UTC)
 * It's looking really good now. -80°C cloud tops and a low developed, according to TWD. Should be an invest soon. -- WmE 11:31, 31 May 2007 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Now an INVEST. -- NSLE logged out, 218.186.10.10 13:56, 31 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Better develop fast if it's going to, there's a wall of 80-knot shear in the central Gulf . -- SkyFury 18:26, 31 May 2007 (UTC)


 * That will eat up the storm in a hurry...there is no way it can survive beyond Cuba with the subtropical jet stream... CrazyC83 21:22, 31 May 2007 (UTC)

ACE calculations
Should they be done here or at Wikipedia itself? I know that Andrea's ACE was 0.00 (unless it regenerates as fully tropical), but for future reference or if Andrea becomes an actual TS, where should it be? CrazyC83 00:55, 12 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I don't see why not. We could give updates here on how the ACE changes over time as the storm progresses, whereas Wikipedia probably would just give the final "high" ACE value.  Galaxy001talk 05:31, 12 May 2007 (UTC)

I have created the ACE calculations at Forum:2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season/ACE. CrazyC83 20:49, 12 May 2007 (UTC)

Given that last season we linked to ACE calculations, we should keep them on Wikipedia. – <font color="#002BB8">NSLE 02:54, 16 May 2007 (UTC)

Andrea a kickstarter
After a month-long, worldwide storm drought, Andrea appears to have kickstarted the tropics. There's a storm in the Bay of Bengal and a TSFA in the West Pacific. -- SkyFury 14:58, 15 May 2007 (UTC)

- Whoa, really? I haven't been able to keep up with the other seasons aside from the Atlantic. Lilac DownDeep 19:08, 15 May 2007 (UTC)


 * There's now another TSFA in the South Pacific. -- SkyFury 13:36, 16 May 2007 (UTC)


 * They are both named storms now. In addition, there are two very distinct lows in the Atlantic right now, one of them, in the Bahamas, (which is very convection rich), is predicted to become a "gale" (we all know what that means). Here is an image of the low. Interesting? Just throwing that out there. Cyclone1 (23:06 UTC -17/05/2007)
 * That low is 91L now (see above). Gales are extratropical systems. --Core<font color="#006449">desat 18:03, 18 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I know, but look at all the gales that were found to be tropical cyclones in post analysis. And there was the 2004 gale, which probably could have. Looks like this one is a lost cause anyway. Cyclone1 (21:07 UTC -18/05/2007)
 * Look as hard as we might, there are going to be some storms that will never be found, by anyone. There are probably more than three storms that have occured in the South Atlantic over the past forty years. Some storms pose as extratropical but really have a warm core and a closed surface circulation. Some of the ones we've found here on Wikipedia using GIBBS are interesting but impossible to prove whether it's a tropical cyclone or not. Part of the fun, I guess. -- SkyFury 21:43, 23 May 2007 (UTC)

And what fun it is! Cyclone1 (17:00 UTC -24/05/2007)