Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season/September

September
Welcome to September in the Eastern Pacific! I predict we will spike up in activity with 4 tropical storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanea, and an ACE of 47. I hope we get a major this month, as we are the first season since 2005 to make it this far in without a major.

Here are my indiviual storm predictions:


 * 1) Lorena - A Category 2 hurricane forming away from land.


 * 1) Wali - A weak tropical storm with no land effects.


 * 1) Manuel - A Category 4 hurricane that survives from Mexico to Japan.


 * 1) Narda - A Category 3 hurricane that stays away from land.

These predictions are not accurate in any way.

Let's make it a great month here!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:17, September 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * EPac's going at a fairly brisk pace with number of named storms, but we're a little behind on intensity, no majors yet. Ryan1000 01:02, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

The EPAC sure had a suckish August. Look below:

OVERALL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN

DURING AUGUST WAS BELOW AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH FOUR TROPICAL CYCLONES

FORMED...ONLY ONE OF THESE...HENRIETTE...REACHED HURRICANE

STRENGTH'''. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR HURRICANES IN THE EASTERN NORTH'''

PACIFIC BASIN SO FAR THIS SEASON. BASED ON A 30-YEAR CLIMATOLOGY

FROM 1981 TO 2010...THREE TO FOUR NAMED STORMS DEVELOP ON AVERAGE

IN THE BASIN DURING AUGUST...WITH TWO BECOMING HURRICANES AND ONE

REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED

STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL

CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS ABOUT 40 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

I doubt Pewa and Unala helped the ACE so far either. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:25, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
New one south of Mexico, but like the previous storms, not forecast to do much. I'd actually be surprised if this even develops. GFS does see another storm behind this though which could explode, but long-term forecasts from that model have been quite off. Ryan1000 17:03, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

This invest is now on the TWO. It is very well defined, and a tropical depression could be in the making. It has a 20% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, but an 80% chance in the next five days. Also, if it does become a tropical storm and is named, we will exceed 2007 in terms of named Northeastern Pacific storms. 2007 stopped at Kiko. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:31, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

Hope is not a fail like the others hope is a major at last, shouldn`t this one be 99E.Allanjeffs 20:54, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

It should. Anyways, as gradual development continues, the invest now has a 30% chance of formation in the next two days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:44, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

Our next tropical depression could be in the making. This invest now has a 40% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:11, September 3, 2013 (UTC)

Well, development is no longer expected. Despite a remote possiblity, I am starting to doubt it. There is just a 50% chance and a 70% chance in the next two and five days of formation. If it does form and get named, our 'L' name will be as pathetic as 2008's. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:04, September 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * 50/70 doesn't sound remote to me lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:42, September 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like future Lorena will probably be another fail. I hope we have our first major hurricane soon. Steven09876 T 00:26, September 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Lol would be amazing though if they are not majors neither in the Atlantic nor the Epac.that would be cool to see in a meteorological point of view.Allanjeffs 03:46, September 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * I agree, though I'd like to see something powerful at least once. Ryan1000 13:01, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

Well, this invest is shaping up. Conditions are favorable, and a tropical depression might come after all. It is now at a 60% chance for the next two days and a 70% chance for the next five. I predict a strong tropical depression from this system. And actually, in 1968, neither the EPAC nor the Atlantic produced a storm above Category 1 intensity (I doubt that because of Liza, Pauline, and Rebecca's disputed intensities). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:15, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

Here comes our next tropical depression! It will collapse shortly, but has a great chance of forming before then. The chances of formation in the next two days are now at 70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:01, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

I think this will be Tropical Depression Twelve-E and nothing more. There is an outside chance of Lorena from this, but I hope not. Steven09876 T 01:57, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
Oh well, the NHC classified it. It has winds of 30 knots (35 mph/55 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). No watches or warnings are in effect, but southwestern Mexico could see some locally intense rain an southern Baja California might get something as well. And I hate to break it to you, but if Ivo, Juliette, or Kiko did not impress you, this depression will not do so either. The NHC expects a tropical storm in 12 hours and 40 knots (45 mph) of failure. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:57, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, this year worldwide has had so many weakling little storms that hardly did anything. To put some perspective in this year, worldwide we have had only 15 hurricanes worldwide this year. Only 6 in EPac, (officially) only Utor and Soulik in WPac, none in the NIO and Atlantic, and 9 in the southern hemisphere. 1977's worldwide record low is 28 hurricanes. We'd need 13 more hurricanes worldwide to beat that record, but given the way this year's been going so far, it's not looking promising we'll beat that record. As for majors, we've had only five majors worldwide so far in this year, Utor and Soulik in WPac, and 3 (Sandra, Narelle, and Haruna) in the SHem. There were 6 in the 2011 Pacific hurricane season alone. 1977's record low number of major hurricanes was 12 worldwide, but there might have been a few cat. 2's that could've briefly made it. As for number of named storms, 1977's worldwide record low was 60 and so far we've had 45. We'd need 15 more storms to tie the record. If this year doesn't get on with it, it'll be not only a record inactive year here or in the ATL, but it'll be record-dead worldwide as well. Ryan1000 13:18, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lorena
35 kts/1003 mbar, with a forecast peak of 45 kts. Sigh, here's another one... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:46, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

At least Lorena should now hit 50 knots. God, EPAC, stop pulling a 2003! A tropical storm watch is in effect for Baja California Sur between Agua Blanca to Buenavista. On a happier note, this is the first usage of the name Lorena in 12 years! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:14, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

YESSSSSSSSSS HI LORETTA :D I think you'll be a Ts or c1 at best. THIS IS PINKAMENA 21:21, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

And may be a repeat of beatriz 11. THIS IS PINKAMENA 21:22, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well Dylan, Lorena might not be a complete fail, latest NHC forecast takes it right over outhern Baja as a TS. It could cause some flooding and damage, that's not a complete fail to me. But intensitywise, yeah. Ryan1000 21:45, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Another weakling?! Epac, stop pulling a 2003! Goddd! But this might bring lots of rain to the Baja Peninsula, so it might not be a complete fail. Steven09876 T 22:51, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * This isn't related to Lorena, but it might help explain how pathetic this year has turned out to be. Take a look at this. There's quite a bit of wind shear over the EPAC and Atlantic. (Look at the far left, and you'll see a couple pockets of 90-knot wind shear. I don't know if even a Category 5 could survive that lol.) Anyway, Lorena's pressure is up to 1005 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:31, September 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * But that is in the extreme corner of the basin not even an area where td or ts develops,and nop a cat 5 can`t survive that. two more ts and we are going to tie the farthest down a list has gone without reaching major hurricane intensity I believe it was Norma the last one in October we might brake the record like in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 03:38, September 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * The shear pattern over WPAC is surprisingly quiet, though any storm that approaches Korea is toast lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:41, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

And my prediction above is panning out correct. Lorena is slightly weaker now, at 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg), but it still has the same windspeeds as before. The tropical storm watch region stated above is now in a tropical storm warning, and a tropical storm watch is up for the Mexican coast between Mexico and Santa Fe. Gale-force winds extend 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Allan, 1967 made it to Olivia without getting a major (unless you are only including the 1971-now seasons). Also, 2003 made it all the way to Patricia without a major, based on your sentence wording. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:19, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

I mean this season haven`t so it may still havr a major and I mean 2003 didn`t have a major so it doesn`t count.Allanjeffs 12:17, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

Well, Lorena is now at 40 knots (45 mph/75 km/h), but its pressure remains the same. Mexico is about to get gale-force winds and rain of three to six inches. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:39, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lorena
Three letters: W-O-W. I was expecting a fail from the storm, but Lorena just fell flat on its face and became a re-Juliette. Currently, it is at 30 knots (35 mph/55 km/h)/1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). I doubt it will be as bad it was forecasted to be. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:47, September 7, 2013 (UTC)

Lorena = FAIL. We have another weakling! I hope we could get a major soon, hopefully future Manuel will become a major. The EPac is in so desperate need of a major right now! Steven09876 T 16:21, September 7, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Lorena
And another fail goes by. I wonder when we are going to get another hurricane, especially a major. I'm tired of these little failure weaklings. Steven09876 T 03:11, September 8, 2013 (UTC)

We might get a 2003 season that didn`t produce a major but I am not complaining if that happens again we get a lot of them in 2011.Allanjeffs 06:53, September 8, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Southern Mexico
In a few days, a new low pressure area could form off southern Mexico's coastline, and some development is possible by the end of this week. Although it is not up on the NHC TWO yet, it has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:37, September 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's off the 5-day outlook. Steven09876 T 22:37, September 9, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Middle of Nowhere
A new AOI is in the Central Pacific, at 10%. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for development, and I don't think we will see Wali from this. Steven09876 T 22:37, September 9, 2013 (UTC)

All I have to say is that it is a fail. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:35, September 10, 2013 (UTC)

94C.INVEST
It's actually invest 94C now, but I don't expect much from it either way. Slight chance of becoming Wali but I doubt it. Ryan1000 18:11, September 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's dead. Steven09876 T 22:29, September 11, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Southern Mexico
A large new AOI has a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours and a 20% in the next 5 days. It could bring lots of rain and flash floods to southern Mexico, and I will be watching out for Manuel during the next few days. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:29, September 11, 2013 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Now it's 90E. This storm is awfully broad, it's one of the biggest storms I've ever seen. Due to it's large, broad nature, it might not develop at all. NHC says shear will be over this system from 93L in the Atlantic and it's proximity to land will also hinder development. Ryan1000 04:39, September 12, 2013 (UTC)

I do not expect a tropical cyclone from this system, but flooding will remain a huge threat for Mexico in the long-term. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:41, September 12, 2013 (UTC)

It's up to 30% (48 hours) and 40% (5 days). We could see Manuel from this, but I doubt it. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:22, September 12, 2013 (UTC)

I take back what I said above. Organization has increased in Invest 90E, and conditions might support a tropical depression. It is producing locally heavy floods in Mexico, but the chances of formation for the next two and five days are respectively at 50% and 60%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:43, September 13, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 60% might become a td sadly is going toward Mexico.Mexico is about to be hit by both sides. Flooding will be tremendous.Allanjeffs 05:49, September 13, 2013 (UTC)

Hopefully, Mexico does not get a re-2010 this year. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:05, September 13, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
And now it's numbered. Forecast to become Manuel as it moves towards southern Mexico. Ryan1000 15:20, September 13, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Manuel
And lo. 35 kts/998 mbar. Despite the extent of the storm's rains, Manuel has a small wind field, with TS-force winds extending only 25 miles outward from the center. That could be attributed to Manuel having formed just recently, though. Anyway, Manuel is forecast to become the fifth consecutive EPAC storm to fail to reach hurricane strength (seventh if CPAC is included). Probably a good thing in this case, considering the flooding risk to Mexico, but still... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:33, September 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, another weak storm, but both this and Ingrid mean double trouble for southern Mexico. This could be a nasty flood threat. Ryan1000 21:37, September 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, both Manuel and Ingrid could cause some massive flood threats for southern Mexico. But still, another weak TS? This tropical storm streak is getting very annoying, I wish the EPac could get another hurricane soon! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 23:26, September 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * Personally, I would rather have Manuel stay weak. It is causing trouble for Mexico, and if they get a re-Tropical Depression Eleven-E (2010)... Anyway, Manuel is forecast to reach 50 knots (60 mph), which is pretty decent. I want Narda or Octave to end the TS streak. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:55, September 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * August is the most favorable month in the Epac from there to October things start to calm down we might get a major in October but if not this will be the first season since 2003 to not have major hurricanes.Allanjeffs 01:37, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's got a fairly wide rain field, both this and Ingrid could merge inland Mexico and cause massive flooding. Strength doesn't really matter at this time, both of these storms will bring lots of flooding rain, flask floods and mudslides, and that's the real killer with storms like this in these parts of the world, not winds or storm surge. Ryan1000 01:42, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel remains the same intensity, but it is about to cause huge problems for Mexico. If Ingrid and Manuel collide over Mexico, who knows what will happen. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:15, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's up to 50 mph, and it will probably peak as a strong TS before hitting Mexico. I really feel bad for them. If Ingrid and Manuel collide over Mexico, then a devastating disaster is about to unfold. :o <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:15, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel is now at 45 knots (85 km/h)/994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg) per the NHC. It is expected to reach 50 knots (60 mph) before landfall. A tropical storm watch is up for the Pacific Mexican coast between Acapulco and Manzillo. Gale-force winds extend 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Gale-force winds are expected in the warning area shortly, as well as heavy life-threatening surf. Also, rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with possible isolated totals of 25 inches, are possible in Oaxaca and Guerrero. In fact, a Mexican weather station in eastern Oaxaca has recorded eight inches of rain from Manuel! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:57, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * From the 2 pm advisory: "TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390 KM...MOSTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER." Wow, looks like the size of the wind field is trying to catch up to the size of the rain field. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:49, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * OH


 * MY


 * GOD.


 * WUT. Wut wut wut. I just wonder if he and Ingrid do a fujiwhara? What would THAT be like?! O_O The fun has been doubled sigpic.png HAHA, the fun has been doubled! The fun has been doubled sigpic.png 22:51, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Gale-force winds and heavy surf are already affecting Mexico very badly from Manuel. Keep Mexico in your thoughts... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:48, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Even if Manuel and Ingrid are bad as fear I doubt they will be retire,Mexico is really picky and resilent to retire storms.The last storm I believe to only affect Mexico and be retire was Roxanne.I believe it is because Mexico almost every year has problems with Flooding so tc producing rainfalls are not weird or that uncommon for them.Allanjeffs 23:08, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Allan, Kenna was retired from the Pacific side in 2002, seven years after Roxanne. It primarily affected Mexico. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:42, September 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 50 kts/991 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:17, September 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * For the ones that want a hurricane Manuel is developing an eyewall might become a hurricane before landfall.Allanjeffs 00:30, September 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Whoa, ATCF corrected the 18z intensity to match the latest NHC intermediate advisory, with the 00z intensity being set to 55 kts and 988 mbar. Allan, I think you might be onto something. In any event, Manuel is the strongest EPAC storm since Henriette as measured by pressure, beaten out slightly by Kiko as measured by windspeed. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:00, September 15, 2013 (UTC)

I pessimistically want Manuel to remain below hurricane intensity. The swells and rainfall are enough for Mexico, and if a hurricane comes, trouble it is! Like Ingrid, Manuel might have a shot at retirement, but as we know, EPAC retirements appear to occur randomly (Ismael but not Liza, Alma but not Agatha, Kenna but not Lane, Pauline but not Rick or Tara, etc.) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:08, September 15, 2013 (UTC)

tafb is up to 4.0 if sab comes at 4.0 we are likely going to see Manuel upgrade to a hurricane.The 7th of the season.

Up to 70 and the NHC say that may be even conservative.Here comes the 7th hurricane of the season.Allanjeffs 03:44, September 15, 2013 (UTC)

The inner core that Manuel displayed last night is not as organzied anymore, and the storm itself is leveling off in intensity. Therefore, the NHC has maintained Manuel's intensity at 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h), but its pressure has fallen to 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg). Landfall is expected within 12 hours, and despite that slight window, I believe Manuel will pull an Atlantic Josephine (1996), Barry (2001), or Beryl (2012) and not get upgraded operationally or in post-season analysis. A hurricane warning is in effect from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo. Gale-force winds extend 150 miles (165 km) from the center. All the computer models slam Manuel into southwestern Mexico in about the same spot, but then, they start to differ. NAM just kills the storm once it makes landfall, HWRF and NHC give it a little more time to breathe before murdering it, GFS predicts Manuel will move out to sea following landfall and make a 90 degree turn into the Sea of Cortez (GoC), GFDL take the system across southwestern Mexico, into the GoC, and then into Baja California Sur. However, NGFDL is going wild with Manuel. After landfall, it expects the storm to A.) enter the GoC, B.) graze the eastern Mexican coast, C.) make another landfall on the mainland Mexican side of the GoC, and D.) enter New Mexico briefly before a final dissipation. No model intensities predict a hurricane, but please feel free to think Manuel will Erika (2003) out. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:45, September 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel remains the same intensity as before, but it now has gale-force winds extending 105 miles (165 km) from the center. Any chance it had of becoming a hurricane at all should be gone by now. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:07, September 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, it isn't going to become a hurricane anymore, but flooding from Manuel and Ingrid remains a huge concern for Mexico. Stay safe, Mexico! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:09, September 15, 2013 (UTC)

A tropical storm watch is in effect from Manzillo westward to Lazaro Cardenas. Manuel has not changed much, but it is shaping to be the most destructive EPAC system since Jova '11. If Manuel jogs a little more offshore to the left of its forecast path, it could be much worse than it currently is. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:42, September 15, 2013 (UTC)

Manuel has kill 9 in Guerrero Mexico so far,and at the last minute it pull an eye might be upgrade.Allanjeffs 18:57, September 15, 2013 (UTC)

Manuel has made landfall over Manzanillo. Since then, its winds have significantly fallen to 40 knots (45 mph/75 km/h) and its pressure has risen to 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). Although Manuel does not hold a candle to Norbert, Jimena, Agatha, Jova, or even Carlotta, nine fatalities make it the season's deadliest storm, surpassing Barbara, and it still has a chance of being retired (the fact it affected Mexico does not affect my opinion). Mexico needs to take this storm just like any other tropical system that affects them. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:46, September 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think Manuel was briefly a hurricane earlier on, it was so close to looking like one and it developed a pretty darn good circulation. It should be upgraded post-season. Ryan1000 01:11, September 16, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Manuel
Dissipated just as it was about to re-emerge over open water. The threats for heavy rains and severe flooding continue. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:46, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Both Ingrid and Manuel killed at least 21 people, but I think Ingrid will be causing most of the flooding from here on out, knowing Manuel has collapsed. Rain is still going to persist for a day or two until it dies out by mid-week. Ryan1000 18:53, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel have kill at least 15 and Mexico news say there could be more.so sad.in perspective Manuel have more of a chance of being retire.Allanjeffs 18:57, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Most of Ingrid's rain is offshore at the moment, so it might be a few days until all of Ingrid's rain moves inland when the damage and death toll is finalized. Then again, the worst of Ingrid might have already been when it stalled and looped in the southern Bay of Campeche. What happens here on out from Ingrid might be less severe than what happened before. As for Manuel, it caused some flooding in Mexico, but ever since Kenna of 2002, Mexico hasn't retired anything. They might have nominated Wilma of 2005 or Dean of 2007 but they would've been retired by the damage they caused elsewhere anyways. Snubbing Alex and Karl of 2010 was inexcusable, if they didn't retire those two I don't know the next time they'll retire anything. Ryan1000 20:04, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel's remnants are at a 10% chance of re-development. Both Ingrid and Manuel's remnants should continue to cause lots of flooding in Mexico. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 21:39, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * I doubt Manuel will come back. It has done enough. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:01, September 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * 30% chance now, it's expected to stall off southern Baja for a few days. Ryan1000 15:42, September 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 60% and looks likely to regenerate.Manuel so far have been deadlier than Ingrid base on the news.Allanjeffs 17:34, September 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manny's back! Look at the computer screen!


 * The fun has been doubled sigpic.png HAHA, the fun has been doubled! The fun has been doubled sigpic.png 20:56, September 17, 2013 (UTC)Manuel_back.png

====Tropical Depression Manuel====

Is that really necessary, Liz? Anyway, yep, Manuel has regenerated at 30 kts/1004 mbar. Forecast to reach 50 kts before striking the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:04, September 17, 2013 (UTC)

Will he reach California? HAHA, the fun has been doubled! 21:20, September 17, 2013 (UTC)

Seriously? Manuel came back? A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Mexican coast between Mazatlan and Altata and between Cabo San Lucas to San Everisto. It should last another three to four days. Liz, Manuel will not make it to California, but Mexico has suffered enough from this mini monster. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:48, September 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Try to keep the images on topic, we don't need to see them with extensions or whatnot. I'm a bit surprised Manuel came back, but it managed to do so, and Flooding in Baja probably won't be as severe as what it did earlier in mainland Mexico. Ryan1000 23:50, September 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wtf, Manuel is back?? The NHC predicts that it might become a strong tropical storm before making landfall in Baja California. And I agree with Ryan, Liz, try to keep images on topic. We don't need any memes, extensions, or whatnot. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:23, September 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah I knew he would regenerate.He was poise to develop and looks like he is not going without a fight.He already kill at least 15 to 19 in Mexico I believe.Allanjeffs 04:13, September 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Both this and Ingrid killed at least 47 peole in Mexico, if you see Dr. Master's latest blog post. Manuel might have caused 20-30 total deaths. He might cause some flooding in rural parts of southern Baja but I doubt it'll be anything like what happened further south in Acapulco. Ryan1000 14:43, September 18, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Manuel (2nd time)
And now a TS again. Ryan1000 14:55, September 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel is exploding. It's currently at 60 kts and 988 mbar, and forecast to peak as a 75-knot Category 1 hurricane as it grazes the coast of Mexico. At Manuel's current rate of intensification, that forecast could be a bit conservative IMO. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:52, September 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel is exploding if it wasn`t for Mexico he would have probably been a cat 3 or more.He should also be upgrade in posd analysis some days before making his first landfall.Manuel haven`t finish terrifying Mexico from his horror.Allanjeffs 21:04, September 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel is not going away! A tropical storm watch is in effect from Cabo San Lucas to San Evaristo, a tropical storm warning from Mazatlan to La Cruz, and a hurricane warning from La Cruz to San Evaristo. I know this is pushing it, but while the NHC takes Manuel to 75 knots (85 mph) before landfall, if Manuel pulls a Kiko (1989) or Olivia (1967), we could see the third major hurricane to attack the Baja California Peninsula from the east side on record. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:19, September 18, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Manuel
65 kts/987 mbar per the 5pm interim advisory. I take back what I said about the previous forecast being conservative - NHC says that the northern eyewall is already near the coast, and while the forecast track hasn't been updated (and won't until 8pm, unless a special advisory is issued before then), the new interim advisory mentions the prospect of Manuel moving inland instead of grazing the coast. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:46, September 18, 2013 (UTC)

The eye is almost at the coast should make landfall in an hour.Allanjeffs 00:52, September 19, 2013 (UTC)

Manuel ended our TS streak! As it bears down on Mexico again, we could get a second catastrophe. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:00, September 19, 2013 (UTC)

The deads continues to rise as Acapulco and other states near clean the damage of Manuel.Both Ingrid and Manuel have leave 80 killed by floods.Manuel have been deadlier than Ingrid so far.http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/storms-flood-acapulco-thousands-of-tourists-reported-stranded-47-dead-across-mexico/2013/09/17/13baf79e-1ffb-11e3-9ad0-96244100e647_story.html Allanjeffs 02:24, September 19, 2013 (UTC)

Ingrid and Manuel killed 80?! Dude that's tragic! :( But anyway, with Manuel, it has really been strengthening rapidly. I remember when I woke up this morning, it was only a depression, but now, we got our first hurricane since Henriette!! I hope Manuel's second life won't be TOO bad for Baja and Mexico, and for anyone in its path, stay safe. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 04:17, September 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Manuel (2nd time)
Well, Manuel is really going away now. It has fallen to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h)/1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). All watches and warnings have been discontinued. However, gale-force winds are still possible in some regions of the Mexican coast and rainfall of eight to twelve inches, possibly up to twenty inches, are possible in Sinaloa. Durango and Chihuahua are also expected to receive an additional inch or two of rain. Luckily, the NHC predicts Manuel's fate in 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:09, September 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Manuel (2nd time)
Now down to depression strength. At least its finally going away now! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:14, September 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel was supposed to move into Mexico's Baja Peninsula as a TS, but instead it hit Sinaloa as a hurricane? This right here..., no offense intended. And sadly, this is a tragically deadly storm for Mexico. I've upped my chances to 65%, and, although Mexico's track record would still suggest otherwise...that's still bad and it should be retired. Ryan1000 05:54, September 20, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Manuel (2nd time)
Well, Monster Manuel has degenerated! A little more rain can be expected, but I will write off this system. In all, 64 deaths are confirmed. Kenna did not kill as many, and neither did Alma, Anita, Roxanne, Karl '10, Arlene '11, Norbert '08, Jimena '09, Carlotta '12, John '06, Jova '11, Kathleen '76, Lane '06, Madeline '76, Beatriz '93, Calvin' 93, Ignacio '03, Marty '03, or Nora '97. I believe Manuel will get retired. Mexico needs to take into account Acapulco described this as the worst storm to affect them in years. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:22, September 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel is the deadliest EPAC storm since TD 11-E '10, if not Agatha. Good riddance. I'm not going to bother with retirement predictions because of WMO's history with the EPAC (cases in point: Alma but not Agatha, Kenna but not Norbert, etc.), but I certainly hope Manuel gets the boot. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:09, September 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Although it could pull a Norbert and not get retired, it could also pull an Ismael and get retired, hopefully. The damage and deaths are more than enough to retire Manuel, but Mexico has a poor track record of retiring names. Their history with the EPac is even worse than the Atlantic. Hell Hurricane Tara of 1961 and Hurricane Liza of 1976 killed hundreds of people in Mexico and weren't retired. I can't be certain Manuel will be, but it should nontheless. Ryan1000 19:34, September 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Manuel should be retire imo it was the one storm that makes the season memorable this is the type of storms I hate to see,but knowing Mexico with its flip flops in retirement is a 50/50 chance.The death toll should climb up in the coming days though.Allanjeffs 21:30, September 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this should really be retired. I'm upping my chances of retirement to 60%, but since EPac retirements are completely random and Mexico rarely retires names, it might stay. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:22, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Another 19 fatalities have been reported from Manuel, upping its total death toll to 83. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:23, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Another area of disturbed weather south of Mexico. Not up on NHC yet but it is on Wunderground. Not like I expect it to become much anyways, it'll just run north, move ashore, and might not even develop at all. Ryan1000 15:18, September 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * And now it's up, but near 0%. On second thought, it actually could develop later on, as their 5 day outlook is 30%, but it'll miss land if it does so. Ryan1000 18:53, September 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here comes a possible monster. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:12, September 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Actually not models at most see a cat 1.Allanjeffs 22:39, September 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Woah, 60% for 5 days. Looks like the initial GFS and Euro forecasts that moved this inland might not pan out to be true, but I still don't expect much out of this, well, at least it'll become Narda and something to track. Ryan1000 05:51, September 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this will become Narda. I hope this doesn't move inland, but instead move out into the open Pacific, so it will have a chance to strengthen. If this enters very favorable conditions, then here comes a possible monster. I'm rooting for our first major from this, as long as it doesn't affect land. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 03:59, September 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Conditions are expect to become unfavorables by sunday or Monday.The epac is having one of the worst dry issues in their basin right now since ever.Dry air will probably kill whatever it forms.Systems may form close to land but not in the open basin.Allanjeffs 05:44, September 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * That's hapening in the Atlantic as well, the Atlantic is being dominated by more dry air than usual and activity has been rather scarce in the open Atlantic this season, aside from Humberto. Hell four of the Atlantic's nine storms so far came in the GoM or Caribbean. There's an AOI in the central Atlanic right now that could develop in the future, but it's got a lot of unfavorable conditions to deal with and I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't become Jerry, in the same way it wouldn't surprise me if this doesn't become TS Narda. With September winding down and October just around the corner, we basically have a month until the northern hemisphere shuts down. The ATL and EPac would need a miraculous explosion of activity in October to fill up the ACE hole both basins are in right now. WPac has been relatively below average too. Ryan1000 18:22, September 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * I no longer think we will see anything from this. It's about to enter unfavorable conditions in a couple days, and also, its shower activity has diminished a little bit. Looks like Narda might have to wait. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 02:08, September 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Down to near 0%. No Narda from this one. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:08, September 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Nada, nada, nada, we want a major Nada. PEANUT SIGPIC.png IT'S PEANUT BUTTER JERRY TIME! (and I liek trainz) I like trains sigpic.png 00:51, September 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * And this invest has gone off the TWO... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:23, September 30, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Near Southern Mexico
New one on the TWO, at a near 0% (48 hours) and 20% (5 days) chance of development. I'm hoping for Narda out of this. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:08, September 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * I am not. This AOI has too unfavorable conditions to develop. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:45, September 29, 2013 (UTC)