Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page   Wall   Edits  01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

July
Is officially here by UTC, but nothing is out in the Atlantic right now. We still have 10 days to beat Emily '05 for the earliest 5th storm, but that's not looking too likely with the way the Atlantic looks right now. Ryan1000 02:17, July 1, 2016 (UTC)

Now it's only 3-4 days away. I don't think this season will beat Emily '05 Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:18, July 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * It won't. The Atlantic is an unfavorable hellhole for tropical systems currently. Any TC probably won't come until later this month, and it's possible we might be like 2012 and not get anything at all this month.  St  eve  82  0   19:05, July 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Something may pop up at the end of July... let's wait and see what happens. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:08, July 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: African Tropical Wave
The GFS model has been very consistent in developing a small, weak tropical cyclone south of Cape Verde in about 6-7 days. The strongest tropical wave of the season is likely to exit the coast of Africa next Tuesday, and this one could develop in the eastern Atlantic MDR before it encounters less favorable conditions in the western MDR (dry air). No NHC mention yet, but it could be mentioned tomorrow or Saturday. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 00:09, July 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully, this becomes Earl. I've been getting tired of the inactivity of the basin this month. Since it will encounter less favorable conditions in the western MDR, this might only be a tropical storm.  St  eve  82  0   19:36, July 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still no NHC mention. Not much development on the most recent GFS run, but it does appear to be a weak tropical depression or storm. ECMWF not developing anything. I would LOVE to see Earl form from this, but the Atlantic has been so dead this month, I'm not sure if I expect it to happen. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 20:23, July 22, 2016 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Invested and 10/20. Has a shot to be Earl! ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 12:56, July 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm sort of lenient on this one. I'm not saying that it won't become Earl, but it seems that conditions aren't too favorable. Update: Checked the GFS run. It's showing a small tropical storm in the same potential area as Danielle. The storm I just described is the same storm, so it's probably gonna be a re-Helene 2012. T  G  13:11, July 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nice, finally an AOI in the Atlantic. I hope this can become something. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:23, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's up to 30/40 now, it might become Earl down the road as it heads towards the antilles, but that's a long ways ahead. Steve, it's entirely normal for a July to be inactive, even for hyperactive years, because it's not even near the peak of the season. 2004 had no storms until the start of August and we all know how well that year turned out to be, 2012 had a similar start to this year with 4 storms before July, but Ernesto didn't come until August and yet 2012 still turned out to tie for the 3rd most active season ever, this year could too, it just needs some time for storms to get going. Ryan1000 19:00, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still at 30/40. If this becomes Earl, it looks to be a weak and short lived storm, as conditions will become quite unfavorable by next week. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 02:01, July 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still 30/40. Honestly, I'd almost rather have a tropical depression than a storm, since it looks like if it does develop it would be a name-waster. However, the crazy HWRF model develops 96L into a category 1 hurricane...but that does not make sense given the only marginally favorable conditions. ~BOB Page   Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 12:39, July 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Because 96L is behind 97L, I feel the latter would eat away the unfavorable conditions for the former. Nevertheless, I would be delighted to see another tropical storm from either invest, as the Atlantic has endured a rather quiet 30-day period. I also believe the Atlantic is just starting, especially since Colin and Danielle formed rather early in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, for 96L, both chances of formation remain the same. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:41, July 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Finally, we have something in this basin! But since unfavorable conditions are coming for this system, we might only see an epic failure TS storm. I would like the HWRF model to come true, but that looks unlikely. And Ryan, I already know that, I'm just a bit impatient for  new storms :P <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   21:03, July 28, 2016 (UTC)

I'm surprised the chances of development remain 30/40 and there are no signs of organization noted. It looks to be organizing to me, with a large area of deep convection appearing along with spiral cloud lines appearing to lead into a closed circulation on the eastern side of the system. Looks like a TD (albeit sheared) to me, but I also don't work at NHC, so maybe they know something as to why this isn't organizing despite appearances? (Edit: The NHC forecaster who updated the TWO is a very conservative one) ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 01:43, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * 96L is starting to look like a TD. Instead of 30/40 I'd put development chances at 70/70. Not sure if it will be Earl, though. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:22, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * This system is impressing me. NHC have the experts but right now 96L looks better than Colin and  Bonnie.  I am not sure how it can be at 30%  with the amount of organization it has. It looks like a td right now. I believe this will become Earl and be  a 50mph or 60mph storm if current rate of organization continues. This reminds me of  Hanna of 2014. Allanjeffs 03:53, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Apparently it's having trouble with developing its low-level circulation, and that's probably why its development chances aren't that high yet. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:03, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Indeed, 96L looks worse then last night with clear multiple vortices and the convection farther from the center. Chances of development remain 40/50. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:44, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Perhaps the invest is falling victim to the unfavorable Central Atlantic conditions the NHC was acknowledging. It only has a couple more days left to become tropical. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, July 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's down to 20/20 now, and it looks less organized with no circulation. I highly doubt 96L will develop anymore. However, 97L, the other invest, has a good chance of being Earl next week. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 20:54, July 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now it's down to 10/10. It's not going to develop anymore, so Earl is likely going to come from 97L. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   01:10, July 31, 2016 (UTC)

05L.EARL
See the archive on Earl.

AOI: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico
0/20, now on the TWO. This has a slight chance of being Fiona in the northeastern Gulf (and if it is, it would probably be a TD or minimal TS), but I'm just currently not thinking this will develop because GFS and ECMWF barely show any development. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 13:52, August 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd prefer Fiona to be a powerful hurricane, so I hope this doesn't make it past TD. Anyway northwestern Florida will get some rain from this system, regardless whether it develops. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:43, August 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * 10/20. Might be made Invest 98L soon now that it is in the 48-hour outlook... ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 17:50, August 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * The thing is, the winds aren't the issue with this, it's the rain. The ECWMF is showing over THREE FEET of rain in parts of Florida. Even if this system doesn't get named it could still be quite damaging. We'll see what happens... ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:59, August 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * 20/30 now ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 23:55, August 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * This has a shot of Fiona, and I predict it might be at least a TD briefly. Land interaction could limit significant development, but I see no reason why it shouldn't have some Fiona potential. @Raindrop, whoa, that's a lot of rain! <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:28, August 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * The 5-day odds are down to 20%, but the two day odds are still 20%. Anyway, as noted above, models are showing LOTS of rain with this still. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:49, August 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * I don't see this AOI doing much, but it could still have a chance at becoming a TD before landfall. Hopefully everyone there safely rides out the flooding that could come with all the rain. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:59, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * ...and poof. It moved inland and it's down to 0/0. Fiona is more likely coming from the 10/20 system. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:21, August 8, 2016 (UTC)

This same system is back on the TWO after moving over water again. However, it is currently at 0/0 and expected to move inland again. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:41, August 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, this system would have stood a shot at retirement had it been named! 1000 year floods are no joke! That's astounding that this system dropped up to 2.5 feet of rain in Louisiana! This unnamed system will be remembered. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 18:40, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: North of Puerto Rico
Another AOI has popped up on the TWO. 0/20, could become a weak Fiona or Gaston if the above AOI forms first. T G  13:07, August 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still 0/20, but this could well be another Atlantic storm. The NHC isn't noting anything about unfavorable conditions, so it could have potential to become even a hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:51, August 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's at 10/20 currently. This could be Fiona, unless the above AOI unexpectedly develops (then it would be Gaston). I don't really think it will be a hurricane, because if it did have a good shot at that, the 5-day percentage would be higher. Hopefully it does become a hurricane, though. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:02, August 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * @Steve, yeah, you're right that it likely wouldn't be a hurricane, and in fact the NHC is noting development is "becoming less likely" although the odds remain at 10/20. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 23:09, August 7, 2016 (UTC)

This system is now at 0/0, and it will likely be gone in the next TWO. T G  12:31, August 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * And it's gone. Looks like development didn't occur, and Fiona will have to wait. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:27, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Over Western Africa
A strong tropical wave is currently located over western Africa and could develop into a short-lived weak tropical cyclone in a few days in the far Eastern Atlantic. While the NHC has not mentioned it, most models and about 60% of the ensembles develop it. I'd honestly rather it be TD 6 than Fiona, as I want Fiona to be intense. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 02:07, August 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Finally added to the TWO, 10/20. I think the 5-day odds are a little higher than 20% because of the many models developing it. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 23:36, August 14, 2016 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invested. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 01:03, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * I hope we see a TD and nothing more from this. The name "Fiona" doesn't deserve to be given to a name-waster. I'd personally give this a 30-40% chance of development, since conditions are going to get less conducive by the end of the week. If 98L wants to be something, it will need to develop quickly. But, I still hope that it isn't a name stealer. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:12, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's going to be heading northwest over the open Atlantic long before it reaches any land areas. If it forms, it won't be much different from, say Debby '06. Ryan1000 03:34, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * 98L can develop quickly right now as conditions are somewhat favourable, but let's hope it doesn't get past TD so it won't steal a name. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:04, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40/50 now. This has some Fiona potential. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 17:50, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully this wave doesn't pull a re-96L and not develop again, as I'd like to see at least a TD as it's approaching the peak of the season (it's still around a month away though). If it does get named, hopefully it can manage to strengthen enough to not be a fail storm, but it doesn't have all that much time to do so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:55, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * 50/70 now. Code Red. Looks likely Fiona is coming! There is still a lot of uncertainty with the intensity of this system. ECMWF/HWRF/CMC show a weak tropical storm while the GFS and GFDL show a hurricane. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 00:02, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Looks like conditions are turning out more favorable then previously forecast. With more favorable conditions, hopefully we can see a hurricane Fiona! ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 01:41, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * I hope for Fiona to be a hurricane. I don't want to see a name wasted. With more favorable conditions forecasted, a hurricane is a possibility. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:39, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Fiona-to-be could become a hurricane but it will remain well out at sea if it does. However, according to Dr. Master's latest blog post, there is another tropical wave that is anticipated by many of the models to come off of Africa behind Fiona-to-be and it could go on a more southernly path towards the Caribbean by the middle of next week or so. This is around the time of year that the season begins to ramp up big time, and this storm is just the start of what could be a freight train of storms for the next month and a half. On a side note, remember that AOI that was at near 0% in the northern GOM a while back? As it moved slowly westward it was responsible for a terrible 1 in 1000 year flood in parts of Louisiana, and it may have caused as much as 1.5 billion in damage. Ryan1000 05:05, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

Up to 60/70 now. This wave looks destined to become Fiona, and it looks almost certain that Fiona will be a fish storm. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 05:14, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan that AOI would have  been classified as a tropical storm if it was over water,even Dr. Masters mention it, so you may as well classified at as a ts. Anyways depending on the model you are following you might get different results. Euro has barely ts Fiona meanwhile Gfs has minimal hurricane Fiona. I hope Euro wins because in its portray it also shows Gaston and Hermine. Allanjeffs 05:39, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * The HWRF, GFDL, GFS and CMC all make 98L Hurricane Fiona in about 4-6 days, but the ECMWF doesn't even show this becoming a TS. Hopefully ECMWF fails this time. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah Allan, that storm probably would've been named if it had time over open water, but it wasn't because it was too close to land. It was mentioned in his blog post that it wasn't officially a named tropical storm, but it had the impacts of one that moved very slowly, like Lee or Allison, and it was called a "storm that was tropical". I'm hoping for a mixed solution like the GFS that makes this a hurricane, but I also hope we get some more storms to track following Fiona-to-be like the Euro expects, so long as none of them turn out to be too bad down the road. Ryan1000 11:55, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * 70/80. This is spinning up fast, and if this continues we could even have major hurricane Fiona. I notice the NHC now predicts a more northerly track in the 5-day GTWO. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:31, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * 80/90. Fiona the Fish is coming, and it looks like she may be followed with Gaston near Cape Verde in less than a week. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 17:34, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, this invest is looking better with every update of satellite imagery! If the structure of 98L stays this way through 5 PM EST, then I think we could have a TD by then even! Looks like future Fiona won't be a fail storm after all! ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 18:37, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * 90/90 now. I think this will be upgraded to TD Six at 11 PM EDT, as the NHC TWO noted that if the organization trend continued advisories would be initiated on a tropical depression. Also, the circulation appeared to be closed on a recent ASCAT pass. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 23:47, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Woohoo! We have it! 35 mph, 1008 mbar! Likely going to be Fiona, 60 mph peak is forecast. Also looks like it will be a fish storm. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 02:47, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yay! The NHC actually upgraded it! It's almost certain we will have Fiona within the next day. It really depends on how well this storm is able to hold off the SAL that might make the difference between a weakling and a hurricane. Hopefully "Fiona" can be like Danny was and surprise us with an unexpected strengthening stunt as it won't hit land! Anyway, TD Six looks pretty good for the time being. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 03:04, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * We finally got a new TD! It is almost certain it will be at least a weak Fiona, but I am hoping for hurricane status. It will depend on how amazingly it can withstand the SAL. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:24, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Looks like this will be the first storm of the Atlantic season to not affect land. Hopefully it becomes stronger than forecast because of that, I'm hoping for at least a cat 1. Ryan1000 11:19, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Finally a new TD! It seems like Six is undergoing RI, since the circulation seems better defined and Dvorak values are rising at a very abnormal rate. NunoLava1998 (talk) 11:18, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * TD 6 is NOT going under RI, it is actually looking worse than earlier this morning. The SAL is taking its toll on it. I'm skeptical of this becoming anything more than a weak to moderate tropical storm at this time. I do think it should become Fiona, but it probably won't be a hurricane, sadly. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 15:38, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, unfortunately the convection weakened significantly, otherwise we would have had TS Fiona with the latest advisory. However it looks like this TD has an eye lol. (It's definitely a false eye though) ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:40, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * It still has time to become Fiona, but if it doesn't improve it's structure soon, it probably won't be more than a weakling that just takes a name off the list. Ryan1000 16:26, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * TD 6 is looking better now than it did earlier this morning, and the T-numbers support a 50-60 mph cyclone. Highly doubt it is that strong, but I do think it's likely that TD 6 will be upgraded to TS Fiona at 5PM EDT. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 19:01, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd be VERY surprised if this is not TS Fiona next advisory, as the NHC was basically saying observations almost supported a TS last advisory when it looked worse. It's definitely still fighting that SAL though, athough it looks better now. Edit: The tropical floater images even say this is TS Fiona now. Still, might as well wait until the NHC upgrades it.  ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:00, August 17, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fiona
And we have Fiona! (Fiona actually was officially named before this advisory). Models keep trending southwestward with Fiona, and if this continues then Fiona might actually threaten land. Another change with the forecast is that it now shows Fiona holding steady in intensity at the end of the forecast instead of weakening. Fiona might turn out less boring then expected... ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:02, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unless she dissipates. Dry air is making a toll on the system. It has almost no convection right now and if she cant mix  the dry air it will be the end for her. Allanjeffs 22:58, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, yeah, Fiona looked basically dead for a while there. However it looks like some new convection is firing up just now. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:45, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona might as well be a Failicia as per ECMWF and ECMWF is quite right most of the time so I am watching the other wave.--182.58.99.14 09:38, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * NHC expects Fiona to reach a peak intensity of 70 mph...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:56, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, IbAHAn, the NHC only forecasts 60 mph. (Still not a complete fail nonetheless) Anyway, the good news is that Fiona has strengthened to 45 mph. The bad news is that Fiona is looking worse since that advisory. And the NHC seems to be siding more with the ECWMF with the latest advisory, saying that Fiona could even dissipate before 5 days from now. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:38, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Right now Fiona looks like it's gone back down to a depression. Dvorak estimates are back down to 2.0 as convection decreases in intensity and coverage, and a significant dry slot seems to be wrapping into the southeastern portion of the circulation. Looks like ECMWF will win this time and Failicia will have a new friend. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:11, August 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Update: somehow CMC shows Fiona making a hurricane-strength landfall in North Carolina in under 10 days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:17, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona seems to be maintaining strength right now as a 45 mph TS, and it's not likely going to intensify much because of the slightly unfavorable environment it is in. If Fiona can somehow survive the shear ahead of it, it will enter an area with lower shear and much warmer SSTs, and this is where earlier GFS runs showed Fiona gaining hurricane strength. At this time, I highly doubt Fiona will become a hurricane, though, as it will most likely get ripped apart by the shear ahead of it. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 15:45, August 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I don't see Fiona becoming a hurricane unless it restrengthens or regenerates sometime in the very long run (like what CMC shows). Fiona might be a Failicia, unless CMC comes true, which I don't think will happen. The current intensity is 45 mph/1006 mbar and I don't think it'll strengthen much more due to the dry air. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   21:59, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * By this point, i'd be surprised if this thing goes to even 55 mph. If Fiona survives that wind shear and dry air, then it might become a hurricane, but I give that a 3% chance of happening...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 22:32, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona is actually looking quite good right now with a lot of convection, so for now Fiona seems to be fighting off the dry air. I bet if Fiona stays like this through the next advisory time it will be upgraded to 50 mph. But Fiona is definitely changeable and has gained/lost its convection rapidly, showing it could still easily fall victim to dry air. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:13, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * It seems to be holding TS status for a little while longer. But, it's down to 40 mph. Even though it might seem like it, it is not the biggest epic fail since it fought the dry air and is still holding on now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:03, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona remains a TS for the 11:00 advisory, and the new forecast keeps Fiona as a TS for 12 more hours. The more Fiona is able to withstand the dry air, the more likely it is that Fiona will turn northward enough to survive longer. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:56, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Fiona is now only forecast to remain a TS until tomorrow. It should dissipate early next week. I'm impressed how it fought off the dry air to stay as a TS for a while longer. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  19:21, August 20, 2016 (UTC)

No way! The 11PM EDT advisory says that some 45 knot vectors were found that support raising Fiona's intensity to 50 mph! Fiona doesn't look very good, so if it is 50 mph, it probably was 60 mph at one point. This is shocking. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 02:55, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow, Fiona isn't done yet! I never would have expected Fiona to have 50 mph winds! Fiona might have been a little stronger before this as well, but this surprise stunt is definitely good for Fiona's case. The NHC is saying that "if Fiona can survive the next 36 hours, it might persist as a weak tropical cyclone through the end of the forecast period". Quite impressive in 30 knots of shear and low humidity! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 03:03, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * And now Fiona is crashing as the large blob of convection almost completely dissipates and is sheared well to the east of the now exposed center. If new convective bursts can develop, however, Fiona may survive the next 5 days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:16, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * It shocked me when Fiona restrengthened to 50 mph. It refuses to die. I predict it should die soon and I would be even more shocked if it is still alive in 5 days' time. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:14, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * I just realized that Fiona's convection blowing away looks like the smoke from a steam train. All aboard the tropical storm express! Lol. The fact that there even is convection shows that Fiona is still making at least SOME attempt to fight off the shear. I hope Fiona can last through 5 days. Fiona's been a fun storm to track considering it's a weak one - although post anaylsis will likely find it stronger. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:22, August 21, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fiona
And now it's weakening. Bye Fiona! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:52, August 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm impressed Fiona managed to hold on for as long as it did. It should be dead later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 11:39, August 22, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Another African Tropical Wave
Tropical wave expected to emerge off Africa Saturday. On the TWO, 0/20. ECMWF rapidly spins this up east of Cape Verde. Hopefully this is Gaston! ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 17:41, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is the wave I mentioned from before that is expected to head farther west than north and it may be a threat to the Antilles a week from now or so. This one definitely bears watching in the long run. Ryan1000 17:54, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * So it looks like we could have another dangerous tropical system in the Atlantic. Hopefully if it becomes anything strong it will weaken before impacting land, although I really would like to see our first major hurricane. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:09, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Ryan that was the second wave the one that came out of Africa on  Tuesday GFS and Euro both were developing that wave in a strengthening hurricane entering the Caribbean  but now they dont show nothing. They are instead developing the one over Africa the one that is suppose to come out and that the NHC is highliting. This one if it develops fast it might become a major later on.Allanjeffs 02:36, August 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * I just checked them again and they were updated to just show this just becoming something following Fiona, but stronger. Not too surprised, that forecast for a Caribbean major hurricane the day before was too far in advance for both the global models and it wasn't very likely to materialize. But either way, the Atlantic season is beginning to ramp up, we're likely going to see more storms following this one in the next few weeks. If they all take similar paths of the storms we saw in 2010 and turn out to sea, we'll have a really nice season to track. But, we've also gone 11 years without an official U.S. landfalling major hurricane, an all-time record (well, it became a record after 2013 didn't have any, but still); that streak can't go on forever. Ryan1000 05:24, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * This wave is actually down to 0/10 with the latest TWO. However, the potential is still there for it to develop more than 5 days from now. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:40, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it can survive more than 5 days from now. Looking at what's happening to Fiona this may not be likely. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:16, August 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Back up to 0/20, but there's another AOI (below) that may be of greater interest down the road. Ryan1000 19:05, August 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Either this or the other AOI could be Gaston in the long run. I'd like to see a major from one of these systems. Just hoping they won't be major threats to the Lesser Antilles in the long run, or anywhere else for that matter. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   22:02, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Honestly, I'm more confident about this wave developing than 99L. It looks pretty good right now and is about to exit the African coast tomorrow. Both GFS and ECMWF make this a long-track storm near hurricane strength, so this could be a fishspinner Cape Verde hurricane that is fun to track with minimal impacts. This could add up some ACE too. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 02:21, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think it's 0/30 now. This might be a hopefully fun to track Cape Verde type hurricane in the form of Gaston or Hermine. I see the other AOI being more concerning. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:55, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50! This is more likely to develop into a named storm before the following invest (99L). I really hope this will form! T  G  13:01, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 10/70 now! It's looking increasingly more likely that this wave will become Gaston and not 99L. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 17:48, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * This wave should be Gaston, I agree. 99L might be Hermine instead. I hope for an EPIC Cape Verde-type major! :) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  19:23, August 20, 2016 (UTC)

Both the GFS and ECMWF models take this to major hurricane strength. GFS shows a track much closer to the U.S. East Coast while ECMWF makes this a long track Cape Verde major well away from land. Either way, I think this is going to be Hurricane Gaston next week. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 20:41, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS and Euro have picked up on this one tremendously lately, now they both make this a formidable major hurricane over the open Atlantic, though the GFS takes it much closer to, but still offshore, New England and Canada than the Euro, which makes this a fishspinning major. Up to 70% for 5 days, but 99L is a bit lower, at 60% for 5 days. The GFS has also backed off on 99L in the long term, but the Euro still shows nothing with it though. This should be invested as 90L anytime soon. Ryan1000 21:13, August 20, 2016 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px;">


 * Up to 30/70. I'm excited for this system, as it could be a fishspinner Major Hurricane Gaston with minimal land impacts. This could be the type of storm that the Atlantic has had a distinct lack of the past few years. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 23:43, August 20, 2016 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Finally invested. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 00:22, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * 18z GFS is now on the Euro's bandwagon taking this well away from the U.S, but they do bring it fairly close to Newfoundland as a 953 mbar major hurricane around September 1 (276 hours out), so it might not be a total fish, plus Bermuda could be in the line of fire down the road with this one as well. Currently the GFS expects it could stall a few hundred miles east of Bermuda before turning north and then east out to sea, but the Euro doesn't even take this close to Bermuda, or any landmass for that matter. Ryan1000 00:35, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm hoping this storm will be a major, since both the Euro and GFS have the other invest(99L) dissipating within the next couple of days. But if this does become a major, I hope it will stay far away from any land. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:59, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Gone up to 50/80. Most likely Gaston will come from this, unless 99L suddenly RIs up to a tropical storm, which is unlikely. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:08, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * And it has been upped to 70/90. Gaston is coming, and looks promising to track. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:17, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Here comes Gaston! This storm looks very likely to become a hurricane, and maybe even a major hurricane! I hope we can see at least a category 3 out of Gaston. GFS still brings this to category 5 strength, not sure I believe it, but I do think major hurricane status is quite likely. There is already a well-defined circulation, it just needs to organize a bit more and we will have Tropical Depression Seven. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 16:35, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Pretty exciting news indeed that the GFS is making this the strongest hurricane in the basin since 2007 and it's expected to go mostly out to sea. It's looking like after all of these years of waiting the Atlantic will once again see a Category 5. Owen 17:39, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * The new 12z GFS forecast still takes this fairly close to Bermuda and Newfoundland later in its life, so it could potentially be a damaging storm down the road. If it misses both Newfoundland and Bermuda and still becomes a cat 5 on top of that, it would actually be the only category 5 Atlantic hurricane to not hit land, since Cleo of 1958 was downgraded to 140 mph in the hurricane reanalysis project recently. Ryan1000 20:05, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * I would love that to happen. C5 fishspinners are the best. It's a pity that they don't really happen in the Atlantic. This will be fun to track, but I hope it is not damaging. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:17, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * I would love to finally see a C5 in this basin! (I don't actually remember tracking any category 5's in this basin, only reading about them far after they had happened). As Patricia showed, anything is possible. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:25, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 80/90 now. I'm skeptical this will reach category 5 status because it is very rare to have category 5s in that location, but as I said before a major hurricane is very likely. This could become TD Seven as soon as tomorrow, but it still has a little ways to go yet. It may struggle to intensify much until it gets out of the MDR and into the subtropics. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 02:51, August 22, 2016 (UTC)

Argh, you beat me from announcing the 80/90 by a few minutes. A tropical depression is coming at any moment. Here comes Gaston, and hopefully an absolutely epic Cape-Verde type major! :) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:54, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now 90/90. This storm is forecasted to peak at Category 3. Might affect New England or Newfoundland in the long run. Hope this becomes Gaston. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:54, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's not even going to come close to New England; even the GFS has backed this well away from Bermuda with their latest 06Z run and also takes it well south of Newfoundland. The Euro takes it a little closer to Bermuda but doesn't make it as big as the GFS does. With a little luck, this may be a fishspinning major after all. Ryan1000 10:40, August 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Upped even further to near 100%. TD 7 should be here in the next 3 hours, and with a bit of luck this could immediately become Gaston. I'm rooting for a C5 here as I haven't actually tracked one in the Atlantic so far (but I've tracked 2 in the Epac). ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:23, August 22, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven
Finally here! Expected to reach 90 mph... ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 20:37, August 22, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Southeast of Fiona
This one just got added on the two-day outlook and is southeast of Fiona, the wave that will follow Fiona is behind this one. Also at 0/20 but this wave is expected to head farther west towards the Antilles, we might see Gaston from this and Hermine from the above storm, or vise versa. The Atlantic season is really heating up. Ryan1000 19:05, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yep, it's beginning to heat up. Hopefully none of these AOIs end up being devastating hurricanes in the long run. With the warm waters and favorable conditions in the Caribbean though, it's possible they could be destructive. Should gradually develop and become either Gaston or Hermine next week or so. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   22:04, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * This was the wave Euro was developing into a hurricane entering the Caribbean and suddenly dropped it. Now all the other models have latch into developing this. This thing have an almost perfect environment as shear is to be low for the next five to seven days. This might be our first major of the season now that Fiona have clear the sal of the way. Models are making it a hurricane before a landfall in PR.  The one over Africa might had more potential if it was further south. It will go straight to Sal that its west of Africa if it can overcome that it might have potentital to be a weak hurricane. interesting days ahead for sure. Allanjeffs 23:38, August 18, 2016 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Now an invest. 10/40. This looks likely to become Gaston or Hermine depending on which wave develops first. GFS takes this to near category 5 strength in the western Atlantic in the long range, but that is still 10 days out. This could be a significant land threat in the long-term, especially if the other wave does not develop. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 00:13, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh wow,this invest wasn't even here this morning and now it's 10/40. Maybe this wave will end up breaking the streak of no landfalling major hurricanes in the US, but hopefully this does not happen... ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:16, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this storm is already looking to be a threatening storm to the Lessers, the models have picked up on this again but are much more aggressive with it when it reaches the Caribbean. This could easily go on to be the first MH of the season. Ryan1000 02:51, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * WHOA! The latest GFS takes this down to 907 mbar, which is category 5 strength! This is definitely an invest to watch in the long term... ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 04:49, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now the GFS says this will be a 904 millibar gargantuan. Then, it will slam New England as a 935-930 millibar hurricane. But at 200-300 hours out, i'd say that would be too good to be true... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:31, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm a bit surprised at how bullish the GFS is with this one, a major hurricane is looking increasingly likely and probably will happen when it passes through the Lessers, but one of the top 10 strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record? 904 mbars is pushing it pretty far. Regardless, the GFS takes it right over the Barbados and moving northwest over Puerto Rico as a very strong hurricane in the coming days, that'll probably be a bad enough storm as it is. If that's not enough, it's also now forecast to move over Hispaniola, Cuba, and eventually curve around to hit the Florida Panhandle as a very strong hurricane 288 hours out. There's a lot of uncertainty to this forecast by that point, but either way this storm could easily surpass Earl a week from now or more as the most notable storm of the season. There's also two more storms GFS shows behind 99L and the wave behind Fiona, and if they form then we'll be at Ian and Julia by September, that's pretty far down the list. Ryan1000 17:49, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still 10/50. I'm not sure whether this is going to develop, since the ECMWF shows virtually no development at all. On the flip side, on the last 3 out of 4 runs, GFS has made this a category 5 hurricane that could be a threat to Florida and the U.S. East Coast. This system has a LOT of uncertainty. Even though it doesn't look good right now, it may improve its looks with time. This may even be Hermine if the above AOI develops first. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 00:28, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * This could be either name, but I think this one might develop first. This is looking like a potential threat over the long run to the U.S., especially if the absolutely threatening GFS model pans out. :( If you want to be strong, 99L, steer clear of land! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me

18Z GFS forecast shifted the 276 hour-out track from this thing all the way from hitting the Florida Panhandle to Savannah, Georgia. It'll probably take its time to develop into something no matter where it goes, but after it gets through the dry air that's in it's way right now, it's got an oasis to strengthen within. I'm not inclined to buy the Euro's solution at all, they don't even make it becoming anything, and this isn't the first time the European model has been out-performed by the GFS...but in cases where the Euro did do much better than the GFS, it was for historic storms like Sandy. Though I believe the GFS is over-doing this thing intensity-wise, it's better to do that than forecast nothing whatsoever. Ryan1000 03:09, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Latest run of the GFS has backed off on this significantly in the Caribbean, they now expect it to move near Hispaniola and nearly die but move on to eventually hit Central Louisiana as a sizeable storm. Euro still shows nothing, but GFS has constantly been going back and forth with this thing. Ryan1000 11:00, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * 99L certainly has a rough road ahead of it the next few days. It depends on how soon it can organize that will likely determine where it goes. Right now, 99L could end up almost anywhere, which is not good considering it could be a major hurricane threat. Hopefully if it landfalls as a major it avoids major cities. Or it could just not develop like the Euro says and this is just a false alarm. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:20, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 10/60 now, but it still has a while to go before it will become anything. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 17:47, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might develop by the time we see it reach the Lesser Antillies in about 4 days' time. I see this being Hermine, because the other AOI is looking better to develop in the short term. I just hope it isn't a major threat. This could be scary. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  19:26, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm currently not sold on 99L's development, since the latest GFS only shows this as a TS and the EURO doesn't show any development at all. Either way it will have to be watched. If this did somehow develop it would probably be Hermine. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 20:41, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * This may not develop before the system behind it, nor may it become as powerful, but it poses a bigger threat to the U.S. in the long run. With the way things are going right now, we will probably see Hermine from this system and Gaston from the system behind it. Ryan1000 00:25, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now the GFS just dropped it. They have it not really developing into anything. Not even a tropical depression. Looks like Hermine will have to wait... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:53, August 21, 2016 (UTC)

But maybe not? As the circulation becomes better defined and shower activity develops near the center, the NHC has raised the chances to 30/60. Also, conditions are forecast to be favourable for further development. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:11, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 20/50. Fiona's outflow is becoming a problem for 99L, and it's actually become less organized. It still has a pretty good shot at developing though in the future, although some models do not develop it. Due to the land threat, it's probably best if it can't become a strong hurricane. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:25, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Looks like the Euro has won again if this is a continuing trend with 99L... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:34, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Not really actually the Euro have flipped sides along all the other models and develop 99L especially in the vicinity of the Bahamas. 99L now has unanimous support from every model.  GFS,Euro,Ukmet, Navgm and Cmc. This will probably be Hermine by Friday or Saturday.Allanjeffs 21:21, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's very possible it could be Hermine but hopefully only a TS. The 5 days outlook is going down and it is a land threat. I do not want a destructive hurricane, so it will be best for 99L to remain weaker. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:24, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, the GFS and Euro don't make it very strong when it reaches the Bahamas, it may be a minimal to moderate hurricane at best when it nears or makes landfall in southern Florida or somewhere up to nortn Carolina, or it could turn out to sea before doing anything. They're much more aggressive with 90L in the long term than with this one, and although 90L (Gaston) won't hit the U.S, mainland, it could be a big threat to Bermuda or to Newfoundland in the long run. Ryan1000 01:41, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now that EURO among other models mostly all develop this near the Bahamas, I think this could be Hermine after all, but it likely won't be a major hurricane. 99L does look a little better tonight as it is starting to fire some more convection. I think this could develop about a week from now when it reaches the warm waters near the Bahamas, and after that, there is still a lot of uncertainty where it could track. It could go out to sea, be a coast-hugger like Arthur in 2014, or it could slam into Florida/GOM like the EURO suggests. And that is if it even develops. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 02:49, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am sure we might see something come out of 99L. It has plenty of time to develop, and conditions are forecast to be favorable late this week. Again, I predict we may possibly only see a TS from this. Although I would not rule out a hurricane. I hope it is not too strong because of possible future interaction with land, and if it did become strong, the areas might see lots of destruction. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:59, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * The 06z run of the GFS today eventually takes this into the GoM, but as a weak storm. It could strengthen a lot from there on out, but they're not forecasting that far in advance, and a lot of things could change by the time it makes it to the Bahamas. Ryan1000 10:43, August 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * The Euro finally caves to the Gfs previous solution and show a major cat 4 making landfall in the Florida Panhandle. If the run verifies it will be the first major hurricane to impact the U.S since 2005. I hope this was an outlier and dont show anymore solution like this one. The thing is the UKMET and the CMC are also showing 99L entering the gulf. Louisiana and other gulf states should be careful of this system. NHC recon is flying tomorrow into the system.Allanjeffs 22:14, August 22, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions
(credit to Steve for the colors)
 * Alex - <font color="#669">1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022!
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022.
 * Colin - <font color="#449">5%  - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then.
 * Danielle - <font color="#669">1% - Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022.
 * Earl - 70% - Caused at least 65 total deaths, making it the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy, and Mexico's deadliest storm since Stan. I think Earl deserves to be retired, but it's not definite. At least $100 million in damage. Has a fairly high chance of retirement. It's quite likely he won't return in 2022.
 * Fiona (preliminary) - 0% - What a fail. Fiona the Fish Failicia will be back in 2022.

~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions:
(Other users can feel free to use my colors)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

(Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++, A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: Grade: <font color="#094">A+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - In the Azores, it caused a death and minimal damage. It was an amazing early season hurricane and one of the earliest hurricanes on record. Its "being early" achievement alone is deserving of the grade I gave. It still could have been better though, like a major hurricane not affecting land.
 * Bonnie: Grade: D- Retirement: <font color="#449">5%  - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. It was just a weak TS that barely amounted to much, but the fact that it was the second pre-season storm and that it regenerated increases its grade. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.
 * Colin: Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement:  10%  - Colin was the earliest 3rd named storm on record, enough to raise the grade by about a letter. However, it was really disorganized. 4 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement.
 * Danielle: Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1%  - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. It was also the earliest 4th named storm on record, enough to raise the grade a little.
 * Earl: Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#F70">75%  - Gets credit for being a hurricane and especially for restrengthening over the BOC, but the damage and deaths it caused is enough to lower the grade a little. 65 deaths and at least $115.5 million dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This storm has a high shot at retirement due to the destruction and deadly floods and mudslides that it caused throughout Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, as well as the deaths it caused as a tropical wave. It was the deadliest storm to strike Mexico since Stan in 2005, and the deadliest storm overall in the Atlantic since Sandy. If Stan was retired, this likely will be too. I doubt Earl will still be around in 2022.
 * Fiona: Grade:  D-  Retirement:  0%  - A storm that tried and fought the dry air well, But it was weak so I cannot give it any higher than a D-.

Raindrop's Retirements
(Retirement colors:   0% , <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% ,  10% , <font color="#049">15% ,  20% , <font color="#094">25% ,  30% , <font color="#390">35% ,  40% , <font color="#CF0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% ,  70% , <font color="#F70">75% ,  80% , <font color="#F20">85% ,  90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022.
 * Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: <font color="#669">2% - 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though.
 * Danielle: <font color="#669">1% - Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed.
 * Earl: <font color="#CF0">45%  - Wow, Earl really had a big impact for a category 1 hurricane! The flooding turned out to be extensive and the death toll is over 60 now. This means Earl definitely has a shot at retirement. Due to the NHC being conservative about retiring names and the fact that current damage totals are not too extensive yet, I'm keeping the odds of retirement worse than even, but Earl has caused major disruption to an entire country and this may need to be raised later.

Puffle's retirement predictions
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)


 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 and Puffle for the retirement colors)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#449">5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. T  G  20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Colin: 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022.  T G  12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle: <font color="#449">5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm.   T G  17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Earl: <font color="#F70">75% - If Stan was retired, I bet this will go too. Not only did it wreak havoc in Central American countries like Belize and Mexico, but it badly damaged one of Belize's most valuable products, crops. Also, Earl was the deadliest Mexican hurricane since Stan in 2005.  T G  17:38, August 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Fiona: 0% - Finally, a break from casualties, but Fiona was a very disappointing storm, much like its 2010 predecessor. T  G  22:01, August 19, 2016 (UTC)

Leeboy's retirements.
Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1.1%-   Early  and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% isn't due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased.
 * Bonnie-<font color="#449">5%: My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement.
 * Colin- 10%:  Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly.

Leeboy100 Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle-  <font color="#449">5%:  Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5.
 * 1) Alex: grade A, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022. KN2731 (talk) 13:07, June 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * 2) Bonnie: grade C, retirement 10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low. KN2731 (talk) 13:07, June 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * 3) Colin: grade C, retirement 15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:44, June 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 4) Danielle: grade D, retirement 5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:43, June 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * 5) Earl: grade B, retirement 60%. Nice start to August after an absolutely horrible July, but there have been 65 deaths and 12 people are still missing, making Earl the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy. The damage total is at least US$115 million and continues to have potential to rise. However as the NHC is conservative and damage is more of extensive rather than severe, I won't give anything above 70% for retirement unless further updates warrant that. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:20, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * 6) Fiona: currently active, retirement 0%. First storm that hasn't affected land. Unfortunately it was weak. Still CMC shows this reintensifying and hitting eastern USA, so I may need to change this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:21, August 21, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
We have enough storms by now for me to start: There you have it...for now. Ryan1000 21:08, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 1% - Killed a person and caused a little damage in the Azores, on top of being a very rare January hurricane. Not negligible, but not enough for retirement either.
 * Bonnie - 2% - Killed two people and caused some damage in South Carolina from floods, on top of being the second pre-season storm in an Atlantic season in only 4 years. Still not enough for retirement though.
 * Colin - 4% - Earliest 3rd storm and was a little deadlier than Bonnie and Alex, but still rather minor overall.
 * Danielle - 1% - Earliest 4th storm, but Danielle only caused minor impacts in Mexico and probably won't get retired.
 * Earl - 65% - The death toll has been upped to more than 60, mostly in Mexico, and there was at least 110 million in damage (in Belize alone) from Earl, which is rather extensive, though not catastrophic. If the final damage totals turn out to be what I fear they could be (around 1+ billion), then this is probably a guaranteed retirement. It was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Unless it manages to reach Bermuda, this is probably going to be the first fishspinner in the season.

iBahan1829's List Of Retirement Candidates
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:50, August 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) Category 1 Alex: 0.1%: Barely any damage to the Azores. So, Alex will return in 2022.
 * 2) Tropical Storm Bonnie: 0.1%: Like Alex, Bonnie did barely any damage to any land. Regeneration was neat, but this storm ended up weak anyway.
 * 3) Tropical Storm Colin: 1%: Actually did something. Flooded multiple Florida cities and that's pretty much all it did. Debby was worse, but it still wasn't retired. Colin will stay for 2022.
 * 4) Tropical Storm Danielle: 0.1%: Repeat of Alex and Bonnie. Next!
 * 5) Category 1 Earl: 55%: Okay, now we're talking. ~60 deaths!? Holy cow! Bad Earl! On top of that, it caused havoc in Belize! This might actually get retired.
 * 6) Tropical Storm Fiona: 0%: Expected to be a fish, so I might as well give this a 0%.

Allan´s retirement Predictions
1. Alex 0.1%  Even though it was a really good surprise, and had an indirect death,its nothing for it to be retire from the list. So we will see him again in 2022.

2. Bonnie 0.1% She was a fighter not going to doubt it, She even came back from death but its impact in the states were minimal at most. She just tickle some states. The 2 deads will not make the states ask for her, so Sayonara until 2022.

3,Colin 0.1% Damages were even less than Bonnie but he produce double of deads. That .1% its just becausse it affect land because imo it merits a zero.

4. Danielle 0.1% Weakest storm so far in 2016 and it just produce 1 death. Her effects on Mexico were minimal and at most they were overshadow by Earl later on. So see you in 2022 beotch.

5. Earl 65% the real deal of the season so far. His damages in Belize are compare to those of Iris in 2001 it has already produce 100,000 dollars in damage and its not final tally in that country. Earl big chance of retirement comes from its effects in Mexico where it has 52 deads so far and its describe as the worst storm in Puebla´s history. It produce damages to other states too. With the death toll in a country that prides itself from being prepare to this types of disasters it was a hard hit for Mexico´s ego. Imo they will not condone this one to be staying. I am not counting the DR because the fatalities were when Earl was disturbance and not a storm as such it might not count  for choice in retirement. Allanjeffs 20:36, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC)

Replacement names
Earl is looking to be a surprisingly good candidate for retirement at this point, given the rather high death toll in Mexico and damage in Belize, despite its low intensity. So...if Earl does get retired, what do you think it should be replaced by? Some of my suggestions are here:
 * Edvin
 * Edgar
 * Elan
 * Eli(e)
 * Elvin
 * Emmett
 * Emile
 * Elliot
 * Elric
 * Evan
 * Ethan
 * Elwin
 * Elwood
 * Elson

Like with Joaquin last year, there are a lot of good "E" names available to replace Earl given that 1) relatively few "E" names have been retired, and 2) none of the "E" retirees we have had were male names. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd go with either Edgar or Evan. T  G  10:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * My vote goes to Elliott, spelled the same way as Elliott Smith. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Edgar and Elvis would be some good replacements. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Mexico's track record might mean this could have a lower shot of retirement (especially since they snubbed storms such as Alex and Karl), but I personally think it has a pretty good shot at getting retired, since it was the deadliest hurricane since Sandy and caused at least $100 million in damage (in Belize alone). Once Mexico damage tolls come out, I won't be surprised if the toll skyrockets past $1 billion. My favorite replacement names out of Ryan's list are Edgar, Elliot, Evan, and Ethan. I also suggest Emmanuel, and as Bob said above, Elvis (a storm named after Elvis Presley would be epic!). <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't really like having the name "Elvis" on the lists because of "Hurricane Elvis" in 2003, which was a deadly derecho that struck Memphis with 100 mph winds. T  G  10:56, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Steve, The thing is that I think Mexico didnt retired Karl because it didnt caused a lot of deads like Earl has done. Its now being said in the news that this have been the worst storm on record for Puebla in terrms of death toll. Maybe the damage of Karl was extensive but I am pretty sure many Mexicans do not remember him because the death toll was low and most damage was concentrated in Veracruz. Meanwhile Earl have caused trouble in Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Queretaro and Hidalgo to mention some. Being Mexico the most affected of the countries in the path of Earl I believe its replacement will be in Spanish so Elias, Efrain,Emanuel or Edgar are good candidates for replacement. If Belize is the one to request it for retirement the name might be one usually use in English. Allanjeffs 17:58, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Here are some more "E" names: Andros 1337 (talk) 21:11, August 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Edwin
 * Elmo
 * Emilio
 * Enrico
 * Enzo
 * Emanuel
 * Emanuele
 * Evaristo
 * Evandro
 * Edison
 * Edmond
 * Elton
 * Emery
 * Eustace


 * I would really hate seeing Emanuel on the list due to confusion with the very similar name, Manuel. T  G  11:00, August 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I was going to mention that too, I doubt Em(m)anuel will be chosen to replace Earl, especially since the country most affected by Earl (Mexico) retired Manuel just 3 years ago. My favorite choice would be Evan, but if Mexico submits Spanish names then Esteban would be my pick. Emilio and Enrico are also possible but they could be confused with Emilia (the female version of the name, and scheduled for the 2018 EPac season) and Enrique (used last year in the EPac). Ryan1000 04:47, August 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * With Joaquin last year, we've seen that replacement names don't have to match the country or the language of the retired name. Edwin or Edvin, Edgar, Edison or Elvis sound more likely from the NHC. Unless the NHC decides to continue with names of popular movie/TV characters and goes with Elmo. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:14, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it's not a universal rule of thumb (Felix '07 hit Nicaragua hard, a Spanish-speaking country, but they chose Fernand, the French version of Fernando, to replace him), but it's usually more likely for said affected country to submit names of their language, and the WMO usually picks the first of the 3-4 names that are submitted to them for replacement. Ryan1000 03:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)