Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season/October

Aoi:GFS storm #1
0/20. 18z GFS brought this near MX. YE Pacific Hurricane  00:09, September 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * I believe this might be Simon by next week. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:45, September 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't see any reason why this AOI couldn't develop. However, do note it is tagging right behind Rachel. Chances of formation are now up to 50% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:05, September 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/60. Here comes Simon... Ryan1000 20:56, September 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, Simon is just around the corner. Geez, this is a really active EPac season! And if this is the 12th consecutive hurricane...-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 21:02, September 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Steve, I actually wouldn't mind if this AOI continued the hurricane streak one more storm. For trivia, the two Simons of the EPAC - in 1984 and 1990 - both reached winds of at least 55 knots, yet neither became hurricanes. However, the 1990 incarnation was just a kiss away from being so - 60 kts/990 mbar, and if it were not for the cooling SST's it dealt with, IMO that could have been a Hurricane Simon. Sadly, it didn't become one, and it's time for Mr. Seville to become a hurricane for once! :) Anyway, the AOI's chances of formation are now at 20% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:24, September 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steve, stop complaining when storms are strong. In a few years, when this historic season is long over, and we've hit an epic -PDO string, you'll be regretting the fact that you did not route for the last few storms to deepen. Anyhow, GFS doing its usual back off now that it's abit offshore. YE Pacific Hurricane  04:19, September 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't think Steve is complaining, at least not if his reaction to Rachel becoming a hurricane is anything to judge by. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:33, September 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * YE, I'm not complaining, I just think the number of hurricanes we've had so far is just damn dramatic. I never thought we would have 11 hurricanes in a row this season!!! I hope Simon comes from this, and it could possibly be another hurricane, which would be absolutely awesome, since it would extend the record to 12! What an incredible season we've had thus far.-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 16:18, September 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Andy, Steve, look what Simon Cowell did to that chipmunk. This is all what he could say. What the bloody hell was that?  rarity is best pony 22:48, September 28, 2014 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Invested and at 80% for 5 days. Ryan1000 21:49, September 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Simon is coming soon, 40/90, and might bring heavy rain over parts of southern Mexico. And it could even be our 12th hurricane!-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:39, September 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now 60/90. Where is everyone? Right here is a candidate for Simon, guys! However, it is causing some floods in southern Mexico, but it could still be our 12th hurricane in a row.-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 02:10, October 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E
Here. Initial forecast is to peak this as a 65 mph TS, but if Rachel was able to pull off hurricane strength when it was only forecast to peak at 45 mph initially, this can become a hurricane too. Ryan1000 21:35, October 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Simon
Now named, and the forecast peak is raised to 70 mph. However, like Rachel, I expect this to become a hurricane, possibly a cat 2 or 3 if he gets lucky. Ryan1000 10:12, October 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * 45 knts. GFS, GFDL, and HWRF brings this to Baja as very potent hurricanes. NHC too far west, so Baja watch out. This system is intensifying, which is when models tend to shift E and brings storms near Baja. As for intensity, we have more divergence than the past 2 systems, and low shear and warm SST's. Therefore, this should be at least a Cat 1-2, possibly a 3-4. YE Pacific Hurricane  22:44, October 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * That's not good, especially after what Odile put Baja through :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:16, October 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Simon could become a hurricane tomorrow. I predict that this will peak at Cat. 2 strength, and like you guys said above my post, it might be a threat to Baja. This means bad news for the dudes and ladies in Baja that were affected by the destructive Odile recently. Simon, whatever you do, don't point at Baja and instead try to turn away from it!-- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:35, October 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks a little sheared. I would have gone 50 knts the past 2 cycles, but NHC is not liking ADT values for some reason. ASCAT found this a 40-45 knts TS, but is downright trash. 12z ATCF keeps this at 45 knts, in line with Dvorak, but below CI values. NHC track still too far west for my liking. YE Pacific Hurricane  13:00, October 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * If this thing recurves to hit southern or central Baja it's probably going to be weakening fast before it makes landfall. It'll probably be like Paul 2012 more than Norbert '08. Personally, I'm hoping for a cat 3 at Simon's peak. Ryan1000 15:00, October 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * EP, 19, 2014100400,, BEST, 0, 190N, 1111W, 65, 988, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D, This season just keeps on truckin'. The first Hurricane Simon comes hot on the heels of the first Hurricane Rachel, and I have a feeling that Simon will be quite a bit stronger. We'll see. For what it's worth, it has now been 19 days since we last had a major hurricane in the EPAC (Odile lost MH status on September 15). That's our longest gap since Iselle became one on August 3, 51 days after Cristina weakened to a Category 2. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:05, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Simon
...SIMON BECOMES THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2014 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...Wait, 13th? Last I checked, it was the 14th...and 12th consecutive. Anyways, forecast peak is now raised to 100 mph. Though I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a major. Ryan1000 05:35, October 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now 85/981. Forecast to peak at 110 mph, but at this point Simon has a pretty good chance of becoming a major hurricane. Let's just hope he weakens a lot before making landfall in southern Baja. Ryan1000 12:32, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's the 13th because they were referring to the EPAC proper, i.e. they didn't count Genevieve because it became a hurricane in the CPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:00, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * My C4 sense is tingling... Simon is already a Category 2 per ATCF, and at this rate, we could have a major before nightfall. EP, 19, 2014100412,, BEST, 0, 199N, 1133W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1007, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SIMON, D, Simon is a good 20 kts and 14 mbar stronger than it was at the last ATCF entry only 6 hours prior. I think we have a bombing hurricane on our hands for the first time since Odile. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:24, October 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Simon might very well become a cat 4 might be the third male major hurricane of the season along with Julio and Norbert.Allanjeffs 14:23, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Latest NHC advisory puts Simon at 95 kts/966 mbar, on the cusp of major hurricane status (it could already be there, since Beven describes the 95 kt estimate as possibly conservative). At this point, Simon is doomed to become our third male major, but the question is: how strong will it get? According to Beven, Simon is moving over cooler waters, so the official NHC forecast calls for the current pace of intensification to slow down, with a peak of 105 kts, which is where Norbert and Julio ended up. However, remember that Iselle reached 120 kts in conditions that were thought to be supportive of only Category 2 intensity at best; Beven recognizes the possibility of Simon becoming stronger than anticipated. Personally, I hope Simon becomes a Category 4; if it does so, it will be the record-tying seventh of the season, and we'll only need one more later this month (or in November, if we get the Second Coming of Kenneth) to steal the record for most Category 4 hurricanes in an EPAC season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:40, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

A Kenneth 2.0 is highly unlikely to occur in any given year, and it'd take a series of odd events for it to happen this year. The season is drawing to a close and the ITCZ should be departing southward slightly earlier than nomral, lowering the odds of an active November. GFS brings this into Baja as a Cat 1. NHC track looks a little west still, but not by much. I know some are clamouring for a major, but at that time, a 5.0 from SAb, a 5.0 form 8.1.2 V ADT, and a 5.5 from TAFB supported it. For the first time ever, we get recon right when it's RIing in an EPAC storms. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:50, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Simon
Update statement issued by NHC. 100 kt winds and 952 mbar pressure as determined by Hurricane Hunters. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:56, October 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this thing has a good shot at becoming a 4, I expect Simon's peak to be near 135-140 mph at the rate it's going, but it'll probably fall short of cat 5. However, their official forecast now dissipates it before recurving to hit Baja. That would be good news since parts of Cabo are still recovering from Odile's mess last month. October has just begun YE, it's definitely not impossible we could break or tie the records for the most number of hurricanes/MH's for the EPac this year. Best-case scenario, we could get 3 more storms through the rest of the month, 2 hurricanes and 1 or both of them being majors. We won't run the entire table like 1992 did, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get to Vance or Winnie this year. Ryan1000 19:36, October 4, 2014 (UTC)

"...SIMON SAYS IT IS A MAJOR HURRICANE TO A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT..." lol.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:47, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Dammit Isaac you beat me! Up to 105 kts/950 mbar now, but the latest NHC discussion says that Simon might be about to start an EWRC... can this storm please not? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:50, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol Isaac, that's a pretty hilarious quote right there. I still hope it becomes a C4, but Simon, don't enter an EWRC! Please! Continue to strengthen and achieve C4 strength! I find it pretty incredible Simon made it this far.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:56, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Haha, very funny NHC. For the record... according to the latest forecast discussion:"Simon is the eighth major hurricane of the 2014 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season. This ties the record for major hurricanes set in 1983, 1992, and 1993." This is, of course, just from the EPac proper. 1992 had 10 majors, counting Iniki and Ekeka in the CPac. Maybe we can get two more majors through the rest of October to tie that record, let's hope so. Ryan1000 21:33, October 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ignore what the NHC says. Anyhow, ATCF has this up to 115 knts. This could make a run for Cat 5. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:49, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * ...AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...Yep, guess so YE, this thing is now the record-tying 7th cat 4 of the season, if we get one more cat 4 later this month we'll break the 3-way tie between this year, 1992, and 1993 for having the most cat 4's in a single season. Ryan1000 02:47, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well well well, looks like my whining during Odile paid off lol. I was so caught up in praying for a male C4 that I lost sight of what Odile had - and was about to - accomplish(ed). I relented when I realized how silly I was being; fast-forward not even three weeks, and now we finally have a male C4 in Simon, which is also the season's fifth-strongest storm in terms of pressure (946 mbar, versus Cristina's 935, Amanda's 932, Odile's 922 and Marie's 918). Wouldn't it be great if Simon suddenly RI'd to become the strongest storm of the season? Yeah that's it, Simon says "f**k you, Marie!!!" --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:02, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * P.S.: Shout-out to the NHC for finally rounding 115 kts correctly to 130 mph instead of 135. Simon's the first storm since Emilia to receive that treatment. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:05, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * P.S.S.: "The trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring another heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a few days." "Screw that, forget about that, I don't wanna think about anything like that" --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:12, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like Simon slipped in intensity, it's now 115 mph and forecast to continue weakening quickly as it moves over colder waters and gets sheared by that recurving trough over the next few days. Hopefully it dies before reaching Baja. Ryan1000 10:26, October 5, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Simon (2nd time)
Damn, Simon is collapsing even faster than it intensified. It's barely a C2 now, with 85-kt winds and a pressure of 972 mbar. That pressure is up 19 mbar in the past 6 hours; explosive intensification in reverse. Oh well, it was nice while it lasted! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:48, October 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * It shouldn't hit Baja at the rate it's going, it's turning northward over unfavorable conditions and slowing down significantly. Ryan1000 16:06, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Simon says it's giving up. If anything, its rate of weakening has accelerated. Now it's barely a hurricane, 65 kts/977 mbar, and the NHC says even that could be generous. Man, it's hard to believe Simon was a strengthening major hurricane not even 24 hours ago. I haven't seen such a powerful hurricane implode so spectacularly since Dora. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:37, October 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * I thought it was pretty insane and surprising that Simon jumped to C4 strength since my last post and is now crashing down like a rock! :O Simon says he's done and wants to fade away. Baja might get plenty of rain from Simon's remnants and it wouldn't be out of the question that us in SoCal would also get a few sprinkles from the remnants. I kinda doubt it would reach SoCal though but we might still get some moisture.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 23:53, October 5, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Simon (2nd time)
Simon is no longer a hurricane, but it's not weakening as quickly as it was before, either. 60 kts/983 mbar now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:53, October 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now 50 mph, continuing to weaken as it moves north. Should die in a day or two...well, it was nice to track while it lasted. Ryan1000 01:12, October 7, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Simon
Nearly dead.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:03, October 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, it was nice while it lasted! Bye, Simon! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:11, October 8, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Simon
Simon says die. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:41, October 8, 2014 (UTC)

Simon. You were a category 4 hurricane and now you have reached CHIPMUNK PHASE? What the bloody hell was that. rarity is best pony 18:48, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * What on earth did you expect it to do? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:17, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * I did think it was an awesome storm especially for the stunt it pulled into RIing into a C4 before it weakened really rapidly. Good night, Simon! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:42, October 10, 2014 (UTC)

AOI:Southwest of CA
20% for 5 days. Here comes Trudy... Ryan1000 01:12, October 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now 0/30. Man, this EPac season keeps producing storms nonstop!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:12, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * It seems that this AOI won't develop, but the one in the SW Caribbean, which is crossing over CA and into the EPac as we speak, will. Ryan1000 20:45, October 8, 2014 (UTC
 * They are the same thing more or less. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:13, October 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now at 50% for 5 days. Ryan1000 20:39, October 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * We could see Trudy out of this in the near future, probably by Sunday or something.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:43, October 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's actually now off the TWO. Wow, this was a fail AOI.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:11, October 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's not. Model support is just after the 5 day window now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:21, October 12, 2014 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Went back up to 0/30, guess there is actually a shot of this being Trudy in the near future.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:32, October 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * It was invested when you posted that, this is probably going to head due northwest towards southern Mexico. Models do have it intensifying somewhat, best-case scenario this could be a cat 1 when it makes landfall, though it's more probable it'll be a TS or TD when it arrives there. Ryan1000 19:01, October 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now it's 30/60, Trudy is coming! Hopefully it won't be a bad storm for the Mexicans in the area of Southern Mexico.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 02:59, October 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Am I the only person on this forum noticing this AOI out of the attention that Ana and especially Gonzalo are getting? This could be Trudy you guys! It is currently, 50/60 and could bring slight Mexican floods.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:39, October 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty-E
It's here, but it's only forecast to peak at 45 kts before landfall, which would break the hurricane streak. Honestly, that's fine by me; we're about to get our first EPAC 'T' storm in 22 years!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:38, October 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Trudy
Hey Trudy! How have ya been, it's been a while? 35 kts/1004 mbar right now. 21st storm of the season; I'll have to double-check, but I believe that makes this season the most active since 1992. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:24, October 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Trudy has only a slight time over water to strengthen; I'd be kinda surprised if this thing could even scrape 45 mph. The NHC forecast is taking her to the 50 mph threshold though. Mexico should be prepared for some potentially destructive floods from this, since it'll strike this weekend.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 05:02, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually decided to break my long silence to post here, but Trudy's making a massive run for hurricane intensity. Up to 60 mph/999 mbar, which breaks the original predicted peak and the SHIPS RI index is indicating a 70% chance of a 30kt intensification over 24 hours with the only constraint being the land interaction (a predicted landfall at 12 hours). On top of that, according to the discussion, an eye feature has formed in the CDO and become circular. As nasty as this looks, it's becoming clear that it forming so close to land may well be the thing that saved Mexico a worse impact. I wish them the best of luck, regardless of intensity. Jake52 (talk) 09:02, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Welcome back, Jake! Looks like Trudy moved inland faster than expected... and so ends the hurricane streak, at 13 in a row from Genevieve to Ana. It's a streak that saw several names reach hurricane strength for the first time (Karina, Rachel, Simon, and Ana), many others be assigned to their strongest incarnations yet (Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, Marie, and Odile, in addition to the aforementioned hurricane debuts), and gave us our first Category 5 Pacific hurricane since 2010 in Marie. On the other hand, Trudy's only previous incarnation was a high-end Cat 4 that roamed the Pacific for two weeks and amassed an ACE of over 44 points. Trudy's already had its success; I think we can afford the hurricane streak to end here. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:04, October 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Jake, welcome back! I don't even remember you posting, I guess that's because you last posted in November 2011, a couple years before I even joined. I'm surprised you still look at this wiki. Anyways, Trudy surprised me with that strengthening to 60 mph, but now that it's making landfall earlier than expected, it has officially broke the longest hurricane streak I ever seen in my life. Hopefully that area of Mexico makes it out safe.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 16:48, October 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now it's time for me to break my quiet streak...:) Anyways, Trudy has made landfall near Acapulco a few hours ago, and the Sierra Madre ranges are now seriously disrupting its circulation. Winds are now down to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg) per the NHC. A hurricane watch was put up earlier by the government of Mexico, but they've taken it down. Trudy is moving northward at a snail's pace, so it could cause a lot of flooding for Mexico's mountainous areas but fortunately dissipate rather quickly. I was quite surprised to see that RI stunt Trudy tried to pull; imagine what she could have become if she came even 12 hours earlier! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:05, October 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Winds are now down to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) for the intermediate advisory. Not much to speak of otherwise, aside from the fact the storm should die within a couple of days due to its stationery movement. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:24, October 18, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Trudy
The COC dissipated but significant flooding/mudslides are still likely. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:10, October 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * For the first time since Fausto, a named storm in EPac didn't become a hurricane. Ryan1000 07:11, October 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I assume you mean Wali, unless you were referring to storms that formed in the EPAC proper. Anyway, it's probably for the best that Trudy didn't become a hurricane, given the threat to land. Hopefully the flooding isn't too severe. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:08, October 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Trudy finally broke the huge hurricane streak and I congratulate her for that. Hopefully Mexican flooding wasn't too severe. Bye, Trudy!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 15:14, October 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah I was referring to EPac proper in that part, though including CPac Wali was the last one. Given the relatively low intensity of the storm, it's small size, and location of landfall, it's unlikely Trudy did any severe impacts to Mexico, and flooding probably wasn't too bad.Ryan1000 05:51, October 20, 2014 (UTC)

02C.ANA
Please see the individual archive on Ana.