Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/May

May
For rumors and areas of interest detected by individual members, see May Tropical Discussion.

Weeks 1 and 2
No discussion apart from areas of interest.

Week 3
I moved the existing "AoI's" to the subpage entitled May Tropical Discussion. Only real storms and invests, from now on, will go here. Is that fair? Hurricanehink ( talk ) 21:30, 15 May 2006 (UTC)


 * Excellent idea. That means we can have a separate page of unrestricted discussion. CrazyC83 21:49, 15 May 2006 (UTC)


 * Good move. Hurricanehink ( talk ) 21:54, 15 May 2006 (UTC)


 * When archiving the pages, we should put a note at the top of each archive page linking them to the AoI discussions. CrazyC83 22:24, 15 May 2006 (UTC)


 * So just to clarify, the only things that go on this talk page here are declared Invests and actual storms? - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 02:33, 16 May 2006 (UTC)


 * From what I understand, yes, but if an AoI becomes an invest that AoI is moved to this area. -- RattleMan 02:56, 16 May 2006 (UTC)

well now u can start seeing all these tropical waves...--HurricaneRo 15:13, 20 May 2006 (UTC)

--HurricaneRo 16:02, 30 May 2006 (UTC)

Weeks 4 and 5
Live video taking place now on the hurricane forecast for this year by the NHC here. 13-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes and 4-6 major hurricanes. Well above average, but not the nightmare numbers of last year (although things can change). CrazyC83 15:16, 22 May 2006 (UTC)
 * They can indeed. I believe NOAA was the closest last year to being right, having guessed the highest number of hurricanes and tropical storms.  Back then I suppose they were seen as being "liberal" with their guessing.  However, we now know that 2005 went above and beyond anyone's prediction.  2006 can do the same as 2005, or hopefully it won't. SargeAbernathy 20:01, 22 May 2006 (UTC)
 * Most people here and on most boards seem to think those numbers are VERY conservative (many are predicting a repeat of 2005, and a few are going above even those outrageous numbers)...yet before the 2005 season our predictions would seem laughable! CrazyC83 02:43, 23 May 2006 (UTC)
 * I was calling for an extremely active season myself, but the warm waters that had me worried seem to have become somewhat muted more recently. My sense is that this latest forecast is just about right.  Personally I see 16-20 storms now, but not the monster season like we had last year.  (However, 20 storms would put the season at 3rd place on the all-time list, behind 1933 and 2005 but just ahead of 1995). --EMS | Talk 03:06, 23 May 2006 (UTC)

Yeah but u have to take into consideration what the NHC predicted last year. I believe it was 12- 15 named storms and we eneded up with 28! No one expected to see 28 storms last year. So I think all we can say is this season will be very active. I see the season having anywhere between 17-21 named storms. --HurricaneRo 00:21, 24 May 2006 (UTC)
 * Then again, last season they would have tended to be conservative in predicting an unprecendented level of activity, seeing as how they were working against common sense and histroy. This season, coming off the heels of 2005, they have to fight the temptation to overestimate the activity in order not to get caught underestimating the season by as much as they did last year. Personally, I would expect this season to be more like the 2003 or 2004 seasons, which were bad enough as it is. --207.107.199.178 15:11, 25 May 2006 (UTC)


 * I agree completely. No doubt Dr. Gray has been much less conservative with his predictions this time round, given how unexpected 2005 turned out to be. This is reflected in the various updates, which have so far changed very little (as opposed to last year). Therefore, I think this year's predictions are going to be far more accurate than last year's. Then again, don't think that fewer storms equals fewer notable events... Pobbie Rarr 05:13, 26 May 2006 (UTC)

Looks like the wind shear will lighten up in a few days--HurricaneRo 00:25, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

I noticed that from 1926 to 1950, South Florida had 9 major hurricane hits. The average of major hurricanes was one every 2.6667 years!!!...Could u imagine how crazy that would be if that were to happen these day. In addition to major hurricanes, South Florida also got hit by many Ts, Cat 1's and cat 2's between that period sometimes more than 1 a year. There were also many cat 4's during that period. I think South florida is due for a cat 4 this year...I am very worried--HurricaneRo 02:05, 27 May 2006 (UTC)

Does Anyone think that if Aletta crosses into the Bay of Campeche she will regenerate?? and if so would she be kept the name Aletta or will she turn into Alberto--HurricaneRo 20:57, 27 May 2006 (UTC)


 * Aletta will become Alberto only if it dissipates, but manages to regenerate in the Atlantic basin. If it remains intact through the process, it still remains "Aletta". For now, I don't think it would make it as it's too weak to survive the mountainous terrain.
 * Jake52 My talk


 * Right now the tracking models show it going away from the Atlantic, not towards. So, the odds are very slim it would turn around and go across Central America.  - Bladeswin | Talk to me | 13:17, 30 May 2006 (UTC)

The temperatures of the gulf loop current off of Florida are much warmer this year at this time than last year at this time --HurricaneRo 16:02, 30 May 2006 (UTC)


 * There seems to be a closed low forming east Of Brownsville, Texas. Could this be the first TD of the season? I don't think so since there seems to be some missing elements to it. However, that could change during the next 12 hours. 216.110.254.167 22:41, 30 May 2006 (UTC)


 * 1. Wrong Place to post this.
 * 2. It WAS a closed low, but it was weak, and it just made landfall. -Winter123 23:20, 31 May 2006 (UTC)