Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season

Future Start
Same with ATL and EPac. Betting pools for the WPac and NIO will be made once 2013 is over. Ryan1000 01:08, October 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here are my predictions for the Western Pacific (using JMA categories):

60 total depressions, 33 total tropical storms, 27 total severe tropical storms, 21 total typhoons (11 strong, 6 intense, and 4 violent), and an ACE of 450 (give or take 25). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:51, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * 60 depressions? Are you trying to predict the most active season in world history or something?! I don't think we will get even close to that number of depressions. Heck, we might not even reach 40. Anyway, time for my predictions, which are meant to be realistic as I can: 35 total depressions, 28 total tropical storms, 23 total severe tropical storms, 16 total typhoons (10 strong, 5 intense, and 2 violent). Steven  09876  ✉  05:34, January 4, 2014 (UTC)

July
Welcome to July in the Western Pacific! It has been a little boring here recently, but that should soon turn around, as some computer models are forecasting. I predict 7 depressions, 4 storms, 3 severe tropical storms, and 3 typhoons for July, two of which should come by next week. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:15, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Right here is a good candidate for the first July typhoon of the season, Invest 90W! Located 120 nm east of Chuuk, multispectural imagery (MSI) shows a broad trough with flaring convection, containing several vortices. With five to ten knots of wind shear and a developing poleward outflow channel feeding a TUTT cell, the models go wicked with the invest after 96 hours. We are bound to see some significant development here! Winds are at 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa). For the next 24 hours, however, its chances of formation are assessed to be low. Personally, I see a Category 1-2 typhoon smashing into the Philippines and China sometime in the next 10 days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:15, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Invest 90W is now at 8.4N 148.3E, 335 nm southeast of Guam. Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidating yet poorly organized LLCC with forming convective banding on the southern quadrant. With good outflow and low vertical wind shear, the environment is favorable for additional intensification. Steady intensification is expected from most models over the next several days as Invest 99W moves westwards at seven knots. Per the JTWC, one-minute winds are estimated to be at 18 to 23 knots (21 to 26 mph) (I assure you this is not an error) with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). A TCFA has been issued and the chances of formation for the next 24 hours have rapidly increased to high. Meanwhile, the JMA has classified Invest 90W as a weak tropical depression with ten-minute winds of <30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). Given its large size, I personally see a Category 2 typhoon at most from our new system. Go, WPAC!!! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:09, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Don't get too excited Andrew, this one is forecast to become a category 3 in 4 days and head towards southern Japan as a cat 2/cat 1. Future Neoguri could be the first big storm of the season. Ryan1000 11:15, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 08W
This storm is really beginning to take off. The JMA report the depression's winds to be 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). In 24 hours, the JMA predict a temporary forecast peak of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute winds) /1000 mbar (hPa). Meanwhile, the JTWC have recently upgraded Invest 90W into Tropical Storm 08W. They report winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). In roughly 96 hours, however, the JTWC explode 08W to a 105 knot (120 mph) (1-minute winds) Category 3 typhoon very near Kadena Air Force Base with gusts of 130 knots (150 mph). So I will stop cheering for this storm and pray the best for Japan. Also, the entire northern half of this system is virtually nonexistent. Is dry air penetrating Tropical Storm 08W? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

The Euro is predicting a cat 5 of this system, not sure what name it will be but our three best models are precting a cat 5 so its probable it might happen.Allanjeffs 21:49, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * That's not good, especially if it holds onto that intensity far enough north. I don't expect it to if it does so, storms normally weaken quite a bit before landfall in Japan, but they still better prepare for it. Allan, like I mentioned before, this storm would be Neoguri if it's named. Ryan1000 22:02, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Nothing much has changed from the JMA side, but the JTWC now report winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph). The JTWC now take Tropical Storm 08W to 125 knots (145 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 150 knots (175 mph). Yikes, now I will be quiet about this system. Even worse, a forecasted Category 3-4 landfall is predicted over southern Japan southeast of Sasago. The tropics are taking a turn for the worst... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:34, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Haven't checked out the WPac lately, especially due to Arthur and the EPac storms, but I think 08W might be a potentially destructive storm for Japan. And yep, the tropics do seem to be taking a turn for the worst with this WPac storm and Arthur in the Atlantic. Prepare, Japan!  Steve  820  ✉   04:54, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

Typhoon Neoguri
Oh my goodness, 08W is really beginning to take off now! It is already classified as Typhoon Neoguri (a South Korean word for raccoon dog) by the JMA. They estimate winds of 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg). Meanwhile, the JTWC have the typhoon with 65 knot (75 mph, 120 km/h) winds (1-minute) with gusts of 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h). The JMA explode Neoguri to 90 knots (105 mph, 170 km/h) (10-minute winds) /930 mbar (hPa) in the next three days, while the JTWC take it straight to super typhoon intensity - 130 knots (150 mph, 240 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 160 knots (185 mph, 300 km/h)! Even more, look at this beast!!! I can see a clear eyewall trying to form in there! The JMA take Neoguri more westwards almost directly over the Ryukyu Islands, and the JTWC have shifted the forecast track westwards so that Kadena Air Force Base, Sasago, Hiroshima, Busan, and the remainder of western Japan and southeastern South Korea will likely witness greater impact. I know everyone is really focused on Arthur right now in the Atlantic, but Neoguri will be a far greater threat to Japan than Arthur ever was to America. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:57, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

Well Andrew post first when I was editing but people, forget about Arthur models are forecasting this thing to have a pressure of 892 or lower I have never seen the models come with that type of pressure. Btw the gfs is even showing a storm even bigger than the Phillippines. This is scary.Allanjeffs 21:01, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
The fun is doubled! A second area of convection dubbed Invest 91W by the JTWC is currently located at 14.4N 130.3E, 495 nm north-northwest of Koror, Palau. Infrared satellite imagery shows flaring convection is present on the northwestern quadrant of a disorganized LLCC. A 1811Z microwave image displays fragile banding loosely wrapping into the LLCC. Compared to Invest 90W, 91W should develop more slowly because of moderate to high vetical wind shear of 10 to 20 knots and fair outflow. JTWC reports winds of 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute winds) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa), and assesses its probability for development in the next 24 hours as low. Sorry for the WPAC bias, but I am really excited for development here, and I think Invest 91W will become a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:16, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 91W is now located near 13.5N 128.2E, 525 nm northwest of Palau. Multispectural satellite imagery depicts a broad, exposed LLCC with deep disorganized convection to its western side. An 0134Z ASCAT image already shows a closed circulation, however. Broad diffluent flow and moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear of 15 to 25 knots (15 to 30 knots) are present around the system. The current JTWC intensity is still 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute winds) /1006 mbar (hPa), and the chances of formation for the next 24 hours remain low. If Invest 91W does develop, I predict a moderate tropical storm at strongest. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, I don't think it'll become much. Might become a TS briefly though.  Steve  820  ✉   04:56, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
With four storms at hand, I feel like we can start this section.


 * 1) January JMA Tropical Depression - 0% - For obvious reasons.
 * 2) Lingling - 15% - I don't know what to say here. Seventy people is a hefty fatality number from all that flooding in the Philippines, but worse has struck and evicted them.
 * 3) *Agaton - 25% - Usually, it takes 300 fatalities to bust out a PAGASA name, but Agaton was a very nasty early season surprise for them.
 * 4) Kajiki - 5% - Seven fatalities and an early season Philippine landfall is probably all Kajiki will be remembered for, and Lingling was worse.
 * 5) *Basyang - 10% - I feel Agaton was worse, although Basyang did kill seven and produce minor impacts.
 * 6) Faxai - 0% - Became a breathtaking March typhoon, but caused no land impacts, so no.
 * 7) March JMA Tropical Depression - 0%
 * 8) 04W - 0% - Not named by the JMA.
 * 9) *Caloy - 1% - Even Basyang was worse!
 * 10) Peipah - 0.1% - This could have been a much different story for the Philippines. Luckily, Peipah was kept in check.
 * 11) *Domeng - 0.1% - Caloy was worse than you!
 * 12) Mitag - 0.5% - Mitag zipped by a number of areas, but it had very little impact whatsoever outside of the Philippines.
 * 13) *Ester - 2% - Some slight flooding was reported in the Philippines, but no damages or fatalites have been reported.
 * 14) Hagibis - 8% - Well, the $131 million (2014 USD) was more than I expected. But even with 11 casualties, I do not think Hagibis will get retired.
 * 15) Neoguri - TBA - Still Active

Post yours, too! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

Steven's retirement predictions:

JMA names
 * Lingling: 20% - 70 deaths but still doesn't seem bad enough for a retirement.
 * Kajiki: 5% - Slight impacts for the Philippines, but Lingling was worse.
 * Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon, but still no land impacts.
 * Peipah: 1% - Umm, no.
 * Tapah: 0% - No land was harmed in the making of Tapah.
 * Mitag: 0.5% - Very little impact.
 * Hagibis: 2% - $93 million in China, but it won't be retired.

PAGASA names
 * Agaton: 30% - What a nasty early season surprise, might be retired but at the same time I think not.
 * Basyang: 10% - 7 deaths, however, Agaton was worse and Basyang barely has a chance.
 * Caloy: 1% - Seriously? Even Basyang was worse than you.
 * Domeng: 0.01% - Lol, this epic fail couldn't even compete with Caloy! :O It still affected land though, so I tacked a "0.01%" on Domeng.
 * Ester: 1% - Some flooding in the Philippines but it's not getting the boot.

 Steve  820  ✉   20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC) (Last updated: 04:01, June 20, 2014 (UTC))

Not much to say right now, but, why not...

JMA names: PAGASA names:
 * Lingling - 38% - 70 deaths isn't anything to laugh at, but enough for retirement? Probably not, unfortunately.
 * Kajiki - 3% - Caused some impacts, but it's nothing retirement-worthy.
 * Faxai - 0% - Became a typhoon, that's about it.
 * Peipah - 7% - Wasn't anything severe.
 * Tapah - 0% - No notable impact.
 * Mitang - 0% - Didn't know this one existed lol.
 * Hagbis - 15% - 131 million in damage and 11 deaths isn't a fail, but it's not enough to get the bot either.
 * Agaton - 35% - A bit higher than it's JMA name, but even so, I have doubts it will go.
 * Basyang - 8% - Killed a few people and caused some damage, but it was far less devastating than Agaton, and many other storms that have hit the islands in the past.
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Is this a joke?
 * Domeng - 0% - Didn't cause severe effects to the Philipines.
 * Ester - 0% - Missed them completely.

That sums it up. Ryan1000 23:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

71.187.140.146's retirements PAGASA TO BE CONTIUNTED 71.187.140.146 23:17, May 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lingling - 15%
 * Kajiki  - 0.05%
 * Faxai - 0% - Good job Faxai.
 * Peipah - 8% -  for its name sounds like Peppa(which was called Peppa Pig)
 * Tapah - 0.5% - Tapah reminds me of a Japanese Man
 * Agaton - 25%
 * Basyang - 9%
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Funny name
 * Domemeng - 4% - lower than JMA name