Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North east of the Lesser Antilles
This would be a subtropical conversion just northeast of the Lesser Antilles. A few models have been hinting at this for a few days now, but they are consistent and are starting to show a better defined system. They have this developing on November 30th, just in time for it to be not considered a post-season storm. :P Might aswell see if this is actually going to happen, but it has decent support nonetheless. Yqt1001 04:23, November 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * I saw it on the GFS model. Cyclone10 Contributions  04:26, November 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS and CMC shows this developing. Euro shows the low existing but doesn't develop it. Nogaps refuses to show anything. Yqt1001 05:32, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

It won't develop. It has a deep cold core, and by the time it gets a shallow warm core (subtropical), it'll be south-east of Newfoundland. 01F.KIEWII 18:43, November 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * How is that possible? This low is currently in the Caribbean... Yqt1001 20:12, November 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * It now has a shallow cold core, but anyway, it will not develop. It will hit Portugal next week. 01F.KIEWII 20:19, November 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * We really need one more storm so we could top to 20 Allanjeffs 20:25, November 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * We still have until December 31. 01F.KIEWII 20:36, November 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Actually, after a closer look at the models, it probably will form. 01F.KIEWII 20:47, November 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Model support for this storm is pretty amazing for this time of year tbh. I mean, I was unable to track a storm in December (I was on vacation for Omeka) so I have no clue what a December storm is like, but still: CMC, GFS, NGP and ECWMF all show this developing. The chances are pretty great actually. Yqt1001 22:13, November 28, 2011 (UTC)

Now an official AOI. 10%. 13R.KIEWII 18:04, November 29, 2011 (UTC)

It's up to 20% chance now, but I don't think this will become Tammy. I think it will just head northward and die out. At the end of today the NHC will release their final monthly summary(and seasonal summary) of the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. I know there were a few upgrades in this season thus far, like Nate to a hurricane, and the unnamed subtropical storm in early September. After the monthly summary is out, I do think Rina has a chance of being upgraded to a cat. 3 and Sean might have briefly been a hurricane like Nate. I don't know if there will be any adjustments made to Irene, but they will likely be minor anyways, and I would probrably keep the first 8 storms of the season under hurricane strength. I do think Bret and Arlene will be adjusted to have peaked at 70 mph storms, but I don't expect either storm to be upgraded to a hurricane. Arlene was too close to land at that time to be a hurricane IMO like Gabrielle in 1995 and Bret was weakening when he got that eyelike feature on sattelite imagery. Ryan1000 11:19, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now is invest 90 but i am sure if this is going to form


 * This season deserves a storm in December! Gooo 90L! But at this point, it seems incredibly likely that we will get our first TWO of December on the first day. :) Yqt1001 13:10, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * It won't do much other than exist. The train of failures is likely going to end with this last storm. It may become Tammy, but it will only briefly reach TS strength and head out to sea. If that happens, then we have 20 named storms, but nothing else after this. This year was not quite as bad as last year was, but it was still a bad one overall. Ryan1000 14:34, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Final TWO of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season issued...90L remains at 20%. Yqt1001 23:50, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 20%. Cyclone10 Contributions  13:10, December 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down and out. I think that should cap off the 2011 season. Ryan1000 14:45, December 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yep, NHC sees no need to issue a Special TWO for this. Season is likely over now. Though we will likely get an invest this December... Yqt1001 20:39, December 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's gone now. Cyclone10 Contributions  23:25, December 2, 2011 (UTC)

Well 90L is starting to move southwardly back to the zone where subtropical storms can develop and it's convection is starting to increase. Yqt1001 18:21, December 5, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Central Atlantic
Again, this is a extratropical low that the models have developing in a few days. We'll see, but otherwise this low shows no signs of being frontal and might have a higher chance than 90L and 99L. Yqt1001 18:26, December 3, 2011 (UTC)

I saw it on the GFS model too. Cyclone10 Contributions  20:29, December 3, 2011 (UTC)

Farewell
It wouldn't hurt to start this section now. So this year we have: And our ACE is barely above normal. Any thoughts? Cyclone10 Contributions  21:16, November 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20 depressions
 * 19 storms
 * 7 hurricanes
 * 3 major hurricanes

I do not prefer to use overall ACE as an indicator for the activity for some seasons, and in the case of 2011, ACE/storm is a beter indicator of the activity. An overall ACE of 120 or so(not pending post-season changes), sounds good, but for a season with 19 named storms(tied for the third most active year ever), it isn't very good at all. The ACE/storm this year was a measly 6.3. Even 2006 had a higher ACE/storm than this year and it was a strong El Nino too. The big difference between 2011 and other seasons like 2010 or 1995/1996, is there were just too many failures this year. There were 12 named storms that didn't become hurricanes in this season, which is, as far as i'm concerned, only second to 2005 as the highest ever in an Atlantic season. We had no hurricanes out of the first 8 named storms in the season, which is a record. Had Nate not been upgraded to a hurricane, we would not only tie 2005's record of 13 named storms not becoming hurricanes, but we would have had the first year since 2006 to not have a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and the first since 2001 to not do it in an El Nino season. 2011 was basically a season of missed opportunities if you ask me. Almost everything that happened in ATL this year(except for the fishies like Franklin and Cindy) could have turned out much worse than it did. It was also a season of missed forecasts as well; we had close to the number of named storms forecast, if not slightly above it, but we had fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes than originally forecasted by NOAA/CSU in the Atlantic, but much more than expected(though not exactly unexpected) in EPac. The ACE in ATL and EPac was pretty much the same in the end though. However, as we look back on this season in the next 10-20 years, I just hope we all remember Irene. Just that one storm. That's all you need to make a season memorable. Ryan1000 23:00, November 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * We only had 2 hurricane landfalls this year, which is just as amazing itself (Irene, Maria) and barely a major hurricane landfall (Irene technically blew over the Bahamas, but it was more of a direct hit than a landfall). All in all, this year could've been way worse, especially considering the tracks of some of the storms (Arlene, Harvey, Rina, Lee, Don, Nate, Emily and many others all took tracks which could've been horrible for many nations had the conditions been favourable for additional development). Yqt1001 01:27, November 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene didn't make a direct hit over the Bahamas; it did make landfall on some of the islands as a 120 mph major hurricane, but it didn't hit every one of the islands as a MH, so I consider it a major hurricane landfall, but over only a few specific islands, not every one. I mentioned earlier no hurricane season with this many named storms has had so few landfalling hurricanes, and like Ophelia, Maria was rapidly losing tropical characteristics when it did make landfall in Newfoundland so it could be disputed if it even qualified(though NHC says it did hit as a hurricane). If you consider Maria a non-tropical cyclone with hurricane force winds when it hit Newfoundland, then Irene was the only landfalling hurricane in this entire season. 1990 was a close runner-up with 14 named storms and one landfalling hurricane(Diana), and that's only if you exclude Bertha, which was a borderline landfalling hurricane/TS in Nova Scotia, and Klaus, which brushed by the upper Leeward Islands in early October(and still became retired). Although Irene wasn't everything it was expected to be, it was still bad enough to make this season memorable for a long time to come. Ryan1000 12:50, November 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Even though we were the third-most active season ever, 2011 did not have the impact I feared. Besides Irene (and to a lesser extent, Lee), despite being active, it had so few hurricanes for a season this active and impact. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 13:34, November 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * for me 7 is not a bad number of hurricane it could have done better? yes but for me is not that bad but i have a bad feeling that 2012 will not be a year to some countries this coming yearAllanjeffs 17:03, November 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, of course it's slightly above the long-term average of 6, so it doesn't exactly suck, but every other season with 19 named storms has had at least 11 hurricanes, not 7. It could have been more, but it didn't suck either. The 8 storm streak without hurricanes was surprising at the start of the season, and if we didn't have so many failures this year, the ACE and impact statistics would have been much higher. I don't know about 2012; Darren said he is expecting La Nina in 2012, though I said earlier we could have El Nino, and that certainly is possible. However, I can't exactly say what we will have coming our way. What I think will happen in 2012 is we will have a la nina at the start, and turn off to neutral in the heart to the end of the season. I don't know if El Nino will come though. I'll make a blog post later. I think I was more or less close in this year's blog post though, just a little behind in EPac and a little too far in Atlantic. Ryan1000 22:59, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

Well the season is going to be over in roughly 2 hours, so might as well say goodbye to this season even though 90L may develop. I must admit, this year was even more lucky than last year. Similar storm numbers, as always because of the record SSTs both years but 2011 had tracks that could've affected more land and killed and destroyed way more things than it did. Now of course, this year likely will have more damage than 2010, but the deaths will be less and that is what is more important to me. But really, there was less intensification of the storms this year, but more deadly tracks. Arlene, Don, Emily, Harvey, Irene, Lee, Maria, Nate and Rina could have all been a different story had the great Texas drought not killed off all of them (but Irene and Maria, which died out also because of dry air or ran out of time to intensify). Had that drought not taken place, I would put bets on Lee being a major hurricane in the Gulf and same goes with Nate and Rina. All of which would've been way more damaging then they were (with Lee already being a bad disaster this year). Overall, I would say we were more lucky this year than last year. Irene was bad enough, but both Irene and Rina were expected to be huge disasters that were nearly avoided thanks to dry air (and upwelling of cold water for Rina). Ophelia could've also been a near disaster for Bermuda. Had she been 150km over farther west, she would've been very close to making a direct hit on Bermuda, as an RIing category 4 hurricane. Fabian would've been like a rainy day to them if that had actually happened! Overall, I would say that the 2011 AHS was a great year for Mexico, Canada and Bermuda, which got the bad side of 2010, and that all nations affected this year were relatively lucky. Yqt1001 21:41, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

To be honest, the only reason many people didn't think 2010 was bad was because the U.S. didn't get hit. If you go and ask the folks in Mexico, Canada, or Jamacia/St. Lucia how 2010 was, they would say it was one of their worst, if not the worst, hurricane season in their history. 2010 was certainly costlier than 2011, but hardly any of the damage caused in 2010 was from the U.S, so many didn't think it was "bad" for that reason(12 billion vs 11.6 billion). 2011 was not the "worst season ever" for hardly any places, except for a few from Irene. As a mater of fact, many people were dissapinted at the forecasts for landfalling intensities of storms this year. Irene, though being the worst storm of the season, was also, to many people, the most dissapointing storm of the season. The folks in North Carolina and New York City took everything they owned and left it behind before Irene because the forecasters were saying it was going to be a Katrina (or Ike) for North Carolina and New England, and in the end, NYC and most of North Carolina came out unscathed. There was certainly some damage from Irene in those areas, but the damage caused by the hurricane was so much less than anticipated that it frustrated people because they felt they left for no reason. In fact, as far as i'm concerned, Irene just made the eastern seaboard and New England even more complacent than where they were before. The problem with Irene not being as bad as she was feared is that, in the future, another hurricane might take a similar path but not weaken as it approaches the eastern seaboard, and the thousands of people that survived Irene will not evacuate before that next hurricane because they will expect it to either turn away or die down like Irene did. Irene just added another "excuse" to not evacuate on people's lists for hurricanes. Same thing goes with Rina. The folks in the Yucatan were vacationing down in Cancun and Cozumel from Rina and they left when she was forecast to hit as a 3 and the next thing they knew it barely hit them as a tropical storm. Also, although I agree this season could have been worse, I have to disagree with some of the statements made about storms dying in 2011. For example, I was never expecting Lee to become even a hurricane in the GOM. It was a large and disorganized storm and it had too little time to organize into a hurricane. I also expected Emily to die over Hispaniola. I never expected Emily to reach eastern Florida as a hurricane, let alone survive Hispaniola. That island is like a gas chamber for tropical storms. They get shredded apart in almost an instant when they go there. I also expected Maria to get torn up as she was passing the lesser antillies (though she didn't die, she did weaken substantially due to wind shear) and I also never expected Harvey to become a hurricane. He was about to interact with the northern tip of cabo gracias a dios when he formed. Everyone else was saying he could explode because of his size and next thing you know, as I said, interaction with northern Honduras knocked him down. I wasn't surprised about some of the failures this year, but I was baffled at the fact we had so many storms come out of frontal boundaries(Franklin, Jose, Cindy, Storm 12, to a longer extent Bret). Those storms really added on to our total number of named storms. Ryan1000 22:53, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Final TWO issued. The season is officially over everyone. Yqt1001 23:52, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Overall ACE was 132% of the median, but that isn't impressive considering the number of named storms. 2008 had 144% of median ACE and it was less active than this year. The EPac summary has yet to be viewed, but I expect impressive results for a season like that. Ryan1000 14:45, December 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * But even you Ryan need to admit that with all the failures this year the ACE was better than anyone in here was expectingAllanjeffs 13:00, December 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * It wasn't better than what I was expecting; it was much less than what I was expecting. Allan, my point was, if all of the failures we had this year had become long-lived major hurricanes like EPac did, we could have had an ACE similar to 1995 or 2004. ACE this year could have easily been 200+ if we didn't have as much shear this year. ACE in EPac was much higher than NOAA anticipated, while ACE in ATL was on the low end of what was initially forecasted. Ryan1000 14:43, December 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's a map of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricanes in 2011.   Cyclone10   Talk    Contribs    Hurricane    02:06,12/8/2011 381254_237996986265789_112957945436361_633108_627216175_n.jpg

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Kenneth will be my first Allanjeffs 23:23, November 25, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
No harm in starting this early, like we did with the EPAC and WPAC, now is there? (names that I think will be retired are in bold) --HurricaneMaker99 15:29, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% - 25 deaths and $213 million are respectable fatality and damage totals, but probably not enough to earn retirement.
 * Bret: 0% - The resilience was admirable; however, considering the lack of any major effects, retirement is out of the question.
 * Cindy: 0% - I feel kinda bad booing her, since she survived into some really cold waters, but... BOO
 * Don: 0% - Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing.
 * Emily: 2% - A lot of promise gone to waste here, though there were fatalities.
 * Franklin: 0% - I smell fish...
 * Gert: 0% - Aside from the odd fresh gust in Bermuda, nothing.
 * Harvey: 5% - Minor damage and a few fatalities, but nothing in comparison to Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Widespread and extensive damage; $10 billion across the Caribbean and US? The outright pummeling of the Bahamas, the coastal flooding in NC and VA, the catastrophic inland flash flooding in Vermont and other areas... Irene has made enough enemies to be an easy candidate for retirement.
 * Jose: 0% - What Ryan said (lol).
 * Katia: 2% - Knocked up the UK a bit while extratropical, but had minimal effects on land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Lee: 35% - I'm getting Agnes-ish vibes from this one. Those floods were widespread and destructive, and in some places in PA and NY, just horrific. Lee broke flooding records from Agnes. Agnes, for Christ's sake! Granted it's a bit more likely that Lee will go the way of Fay, he could pull an Allison, too. I'll be very interested to see where the monetary damage figures end up – I'm expecting at least Fay-like totals.
 * Maria: 2% - Not even close to a re-Igor for Newfoundland, and the Lessers didn't get much damage either.
 * Nate: 5% - Veracruz has seen much worse than this.
 * Ophelia: 11% - Tacking on an extra 1% purely because she was so awesome. Reversed some progress in repairing from Igor, but wasn't nearly as bad as he was; though I'd like to hear more about the impact in Dominica.
 * Philippe: 0% - Triumphant fishspinner, but a fishspinner nonetheless.


 * I'm going to wait until later here. If 91L (Emily) of this year happens to do what her 2005 predecesor couldn't(that is, cause enough damage to be retired), then I'll throw in my percentages because as of now, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement. Thus far, I'd be surprised if we have ANY names nominated. Arlene didn't hit Mexico hard enough, and every other storm thus far did virtually nothing. Ryan1000 05:03, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine:
 * Arlene - 15% - It killed two dozen people, but Mexico has seen worse than her, and Arlene's coming back in 2017.
 * Bret - 0% - I don't think Bret's going, unless he's some tyrant name.
 * Cindy - 0% - See you in 2017!!!
 * Don - 1% - Affected land, dropped 2/3 inch of rain in Brownsville, that's it. No way Don's going.
 * Emily - 4% - Not Hanna or Gordon bad.
 * Franklin - 0% - See Cindy's section.
 * Gert - 0.01% - Only because she forced TS warnings for Bermuda.
 * Harvey - 5% - It wasn't a fishie, but if Matthew last year didn't go, then Harvey won't.
 * Irene - 80% - Irene has caused enough damage to remove herself.
 * Jose - 0% - See Gert's section.
 * Katia - 1% - The UK may request retirement, but it's not likely.
 * Lee - 50% - Good chance.
 * Maria - 5% - If a storm like Maria hit NF last year, would it have gone? No!
 * Nate - 3% - Even Arlene makes this storm a fail.
 * Ophelia - 5% - See Emily's section.
 * Philippe - 1% - FAIL!
 * Rina - 2% - Not enough damage.
 * Sean - 0% - It's clear he won't go.
 * Sean - 0% - It's clear he won't go.


 * Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 20% - Damage was minimal, but a quarter 100 deaths? That's a hefty amount. However, Arlene did not cause many big problems to Mexico. Mexico also has been reluctant to retire what most would think to be terrible storms (well, technically all (except the fishies) are). If Karl was not retired, not Arlene. Bret: 0% - Thanks for your ability to fight the shear! Cindy: 0% - Cold water fishy Don: 1% - Don had hopes to bring the South Texas drought to a...well...away from exceptional, but Don did nothing but drop a few barely beneficial drops of rain. Emily: 5% - Emily caused deaths and damage especially to Hispaniola, but not enough for any true retirement. Franklin: 0% - A stupid storm in the middle of the ocean. If I were to give it a nickname I would call it 'The Perfect Fail' Gert: 0% - Gert did cause some issues, but it did not do much to Bermuda except bring some gusty winds as it moved to the east. On the move to 2017! Harvey: 4% - With the exception of 3 deaths and some flooding, Harvey was not a major issue. Irene: 97% - I'm placing my retirement card on Irene because she was too much. She cannot pull of a Karl because she was a big deal to so many countries. In the end, Puerto Rico will probably request retirement, Hispaniola probably will too with 5 deaths and Haiti, which practically will retire ANY hurricane that comes over them due to the earthquake's prolonged affects, cholera outbreak, worse living conditions, etc. For the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, damage wasn't too bad, especially when you look at past storms, but there were damages, and was considered the worst hurricane since Floyd. For them retirement is a maybe. The United States will 100% retire Irene: 35 (2) deaths and ~$7 billion. Overall, the odds of retirement are almost certain. Once again let me put the numbers in perspective: 43 indirect and direct deaths, $10.1 billion in damages CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:38, August 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Arlene: 20% Cause some impact in Mexico it kills at least 25 but like they said here Mexico have seen worst things.
 * Bret: 1% He survived shear and just that, The 1% is for the effect on the Bahamas but retirement is not gonna happen.
 * Cindy: 0% What does she do???NOTHING but I admire her by her duration on cold water
 * Don: 1% That 1% is just for the damage in the carribean and just that, not even give Texas the water that it need just after landfall it dissipites Fail
 * Emily : 3% A lot of promises but not even one she do.
 * Franklin: 0% you and Cindy are just gonna be best friends, you two have a lot in common especially that both of you are fails.
 * Gert: 1% just because she affected Bermuda, but hey honey you are staying no matter what.
 * Harvey : 3% damage in my country nor belize was enough to earn retirement but at least it tried.
 * Irene:97% for me damage was enough for retirement Puerto Rico or the U.S.A may ask the name of this beauty.
 * Jose:1% Another system make of a front boundary of the 2011 but I have to give him credit for surviving and strenghtening in the high shear
 * Katia:10% good storm to track but not she is not going even with the effects on Europe because at that time she was extratropical
 * Lee:35% it did damge but not severe for retirement but I have to say he is one of the best candidates until now with Irene and Arlene
 * Maria:5% it was not that bad but it was a hurricane nontheless
 * Nate:5% dissipite after landfall PATHETIC just like don
 * Ophelia: 25 to 35% damage in Dominica a lot but not severe and it has a chance nevertheless
 * Philippe: 0% because it didn´t affect land but i need to give him credit for nearly becoming a cat 2 and our 5 hurricane of the season
 * Rina 3% you are my brother favorite name of the season but you only affect Mexico primary and if he is resilent to retire big storms we can not even talk about this one
 * Sean 2% like others you are a fishpinner but you affect Bermuda almost directly so that is why my number and also he is my favorite male name of the season and Whithney if it develop porbable won`t is my female favorite name


 * Allanjeffs 03:00, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * :: okz well here r my forcasts
 * arlene 18% deaths and damage but not alot
 * bret 1% cause of the bahamas but no real retirement
 * cindy 0% ur on the train to 2017
 * don 2% cause of the caribian but not really
 * emily 6% well alot of brushing land
 * franklin 0%ur also on the train to 2017 =D
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda

Well, I'll now give my final numbers: A summary is here: I thought we got lucky last year, but we got luckier this season than we had in any year. I hoped we would get another good blessin', but this year Irene gave us a very good lesson. Irene made 2011 a season worth remembering, but as bad as it was, it could have been the end of everything. I hope we prepare for others to come, but all that matters is now we're done. Farewell until next year, I'll be returning, and I hope by then we'll have a season worth neglecting. Ryan1000 18:19, November 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 15% - Not enough overall impacts.
 * Bret - 0% - Theres fail...
 * Cindy - 0% - ...and there's epic fail.
 * Don - 1%. It hit land as a depression, but still, why would this one be retired?
 * Emily - 5% - Not bad enough.
 * Franklin - 0% - I think I heard something.
 * Gert - 0% - Not even Bermuda was damaged by this failure.
 * Harvey - 5% - If Matthew didn't get it last time, Harvey can't go this time.
 * Irene - 85% - I didn't think it would stay this way all year, but Irene was the storm of the season. Although it could've been worse, it still caused enough impacts to leave the list. Karl discouraged me, but Irene did more damage and deaths, and the U.S. is more generous than Mexico, I believe.
 * Jose - 0% - No way Jose.
 * Katia - 0% - It did nothing while tropical, and the UK won't retire a non-tropical remnant low.
 * Lee - 30% - I may be in the minority, but it was still much less damaging than Allison, so probrably not.
 * Maria - 5% - This was not even close to Igor.
 * Nate - 5% - Pretty much a Maria for Mexico.
 * Ophelia - 5% - This was basically a stronger Maria with little overall impact.
 * Philippe - 0% - It was a long-lasting and persistent storm, but it still never affected land.
 * Rina - 5% - Even Paula makes this storm look like a failure.
 * Sean - 0% - A fishspinner tropical storm bids the fine farewell to the 2011 season.
 * Definitely retired - Irene.
 * Probrably retired - None.
 * Possibly retired - Lee.
 * Probrably not retired - Arlene.
 * Not retired - everyone else.

Here's mine:


 * Arlene - 5% - Karl didn't get retired, why should this one?


 * Bret - 0% - Other than TS warnings, it did nothing.


 * Cindy - 0% - It wasn't even close to Bermuda.


 * Don - 0% - Could have gotten a higher number, but this one really failed.


 * Emily - 5% It did brush the Leeward Islands.


 * Franklin - 0% - This one's not going.


 * Gert - 0% - Only TD winds were felt at Bermuda.


 * Harvey - 5% - Well, it tried.


 * Irene - 95% - It did enough damage in the Carribean, adding the East Coast makes it go off the list.


 * Jose - 5% - It formed so close to Bermuda and it still did nothing.


 * Katia - 20% - Unless it did moderate or serious damage in Europe.


 * Lee - 20% - It has damage, but not too much.
 * Maria - 10% - Unless your looking forward to it as a Igor-like storm.
 * Nate - 5% - See Arlene's section.
 * Ophelia - 40% - The damage in Dominica seem pretty intense. The damage in Newfoundland was kind of bad, where the roads weren't repaired well. I wouldn't be suprised if this gets retired.
 * Philippe - 0% - 90 mph of failure.
 * Rina - 10% - Compare this to Paula.
 * Sean - 0% - Obvious.

Here's a summary.. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  23:05, November 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone - Irene
 * Might be gone - Lee, Katia, Maria, Arlene, Ophelia, Rina
 * Staying - the rest

Here are mine:


 * Arlene - 15% - Possible, but unlikely.


 * Bret - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Cindy - 0% - Fishspinner


 * Don - <1% - Hardly did anything.


 * Emily - 5% - Some effect, but not severe.


 * Franklin - 0% - Near fishspinner.


 * Gert - 0% - Bermuda just got a little breeze.


 * Harvey - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Irene - 90% - U.S. damage is estimated to be about $7 billion, and add the Caribbean damage and it totals to about $10 billion. The U.S. won't pass on this one I am pretty sure.


 * Jose - 3% - Some effect at Bermuda, but nothing very severe.

70.171.254.210 01:44, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine: All of that saying so far, Irene will be the first storm to get the boot. Now, Isaac is the last remaining original I storm. Given that they are cursed, I expect that to get the boot in a few years too. Darren 23 Edits 01:20, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% – Didn't do a whole much of anything... I didn't see any reports of Mexico calling this that bad.
 * Bret: 0% – Obvious
 * Cindy: 0% – Obvious
 * Don: 1% – Donepicfail will never ever be retired, ever.
 * Emily: 4% – Emilyfail didn't do anything much to Hispaniola.
 * Franklin: 0% – Few hours of fame
 * Gert: 0% – Obvious
 * Harvey: 15% – Central America/Mexico wasn't crying that this was destructive, so this is obvious.
 * Irene: 91% – Moderate to severe damage over a wide area, with the US having massive floods, this will get the boot. This is not gonna be an Karl... Irene is much, much more widespread and people actually know the extend of the damage.
 * Jose: 0% – 24 hours of fame

The Great Seer has spoken: What a crazy season it's been. Back to back years of 18+ storms. Amazing. -- SkyFury 03:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 30% - 22 deaths and $223 million in damage is nothing to sneeze at, I don't care what Mexico says. I had no idea it was that bad. If that was in the US, we'd have it up around 50% at least. Those are definately retirement-worthy numbers. Do I think it will be retired? No. But the numbers certainly qualify.
 * Bret: 2% - Sure made for a lousy weekend on Abaco Island, but otherwise bupkiss. Most of Bret's effects were beneficial.
 * Cindy: 0% - Look, a shooting star! Quick everybody make a wish!
 * Don: 1% - Per my usual custom, I never give a storm that affected land a 0% chance. I was really hoping to be able to make a Godfather reference with this one, but that's kinda hard to do with a storm that fell flat on its face. Though I guess it's fair to say that TS Don sleeps with the fishes ;)
 * Emily: 10% - It did kill five people. I'm still confused about Emily. It will go down as one of the most troublesome storms in history from a forecasting persepective. SMH...
 * Franklin: 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Gert: 0% - I get the feeling there were a few surfers on Bermuda who were sorely disappointed.
 * Harvey: 8% - This one could've been a lot worse. I think a lot of people were worried about another Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Wow, what a storm. As we feared, this has turned into another Floyd/Isabel with devastating inland flooding. But as bad as it was, it could've been a whole lot worse. It would've been catastrophic had it hit North Carolina as a Cat 3 and NYC as a Cat 2, as originally predicted. This was really setting up to be a worst case scenario with the size of the storm, track right over NYC, and astronomical tides. Thank God it didn't happen. I don't think I'll ever forget seeing Times Square, Grand Central Station, and Atlantic City's casinos completely and utterly vacant. It really was post apocalyptic. I was waiting for Will Smith and the zombies to jump out at any minute. Incredible. I hope you guys took it all in, because we may never see another storm like that in our lifetimes. I thought every single elected official at the state and local level did an exemplary job preparing for this storm. I don't think they could've handled it better. It had been almost three years since a big storm hit the US and there was plenty of room for complacency, but all the mayors and governors handled this with the utmost seriousness and professionalism. It took a lot of balls for Mayor Bloomberg and Governor Christie to order those evacuations. And apart from North Carolina, these were places that never have to deal with stuff like this. For a bunch of them, this was their first serious threat from a hurricane in decades. I was blown away by how well they handled it. Their actions saved lives. Hats off.
 * Jose: 0% - *facepalm*
 * Katia: 6% - Hey, it was fun to watch. A major hurricane for a change. And the British Isles took a beating from this. Four people did die.
 * Lee: 25% - Flooded the rest of the eastern US. Death toll is up to 17 now. As feared, this got pretty ugly. It brought a crapload of rain to places that couldn't take another drop. It exascerbated flooding in the wake of Irene. It's a cruel irony that Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were drowning in 15 inches of rain while neighboring Texas is in a historic drought with huge wildfires destroying homes. All Lee did for them was fan the flames.
 * Maria: 5% - Well this ended up getting pretty interesting, especially for Newfoundland, who've had a rather lively past couple of seasons. But this was no Igor. It was certainly blustery, probably exhilarating down on the south coast, but they came out of it unscathed.
 * Nate: 10% - Another disappointment. They gave the kids in Veracruz the day off from school for this. That said, at least five people have died in flooding and ten oil rig workers are missing. Yikes. Hence the 10%, which could be conservative if these early reports turn out to be true.
 * Ophelia: 5% - Wow that was fun! What an amazing storm! Who'd have thought as we watched Ophelia sputter and die that it would come roaring back to become the strongest storm of the season. Just a remarkable turnaround. And yet another scare for Newfoundland, this has been a crazy season for them. All that said, damage was fortunately minimal.
 * Philippe: 1% - Yet another tenacious storm. This has really become a major subplot of this season: tough, tenacious storms. Maria, Ophelia and Philippe all survived brutal shear conditions to become significant hurricanes. That's impressive. That 1%, btw, is simply out of respect for what the storm was able to accomplish.
 * Rina: 3% - Mexico dodged a bullet, this thing could've been a whole lot worse. That shear came on stronger than expected.
 * Sean: 0% - I'm just gonna go out on a limb here and say Sean's not going to do much. I may revise this later. I think this is a nice finishing touch on the season. With those two storms in October that very nearly got named, we could easily be looking at a 20 storm season right now, but alas. It was a season of missed opportunities, but when we look back on it twenty years from now, we'll all remember one name: Irene. Irene was a truly incredible event and a terrible tragedy that I don't think any of us will soon forget.
 * To be continued...

Anything but Irene 0 percent, Irene at 60 percent (while I've substracted some 25 percent due to the fact that the basin is running out names commencing with an I) --88.102.101.245 11:49, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Here's what I have:


 * Arlene: 20%. The deaths and damages were something notable, but just not enough to cut through Mexico's reputation.


 * Bret: 1%. Little rain, not much else.


 * Cindy: 0%. Hello, speedy!


 * Don: 1%. To say the least, this was probably the first time a tropical storm not making landfall was a disappointment to the people there. Texas needed the rain.


 * Emily: 15%. It was quite aggravating to track and did do some damage. The thing that makes me wonder is that the worst hit may have been Martinique...the same Martinique that got Klaus off the list. However, Emily, fortunately, was no Klaus.


 * Franklin: 0%. While it did rain on Bermuda to a tiny degree, who would remember this one?


 * Gert: 0%. Yet another near-hit with no effects.


 * Harvey: 1%. Yet another minor effects storm.


 * Irene: 85%. It was leading up to this. Major damage, high death toll, and although it wasn't as bad as predicted, it was still bad enough. It's time for a 12-year-late retirement.


 * Jose: -5%. The dead-ringer of Tropical Storm Kay from the 2004 Pacific hurricane season and Tropical Storm Ernesto of the 2000 Atlantic season. It was such a bomb of a storm that I can't even give it a 0.

That's all for now! Jake52 22:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

In general, here is a summary of what's going and what's not:

Gone: Irene 

Possibly so: Arlene, Lee 

Possibly not: Emily, Harvey, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Rina 

Staying: Bret, Cindy, Don, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Philippe

Hurricane Andrew (444)' 02:52, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

Although we have had a rather active season thus far this year, the ACE sucks, TBH, and we have had only one bad storm thus far in 2011, so we're better than where we were in previous years. At this time in 2004, we had Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne was in the making, and at this time in 2005 we had Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and Rita was going to be forming as well. We had Gustav and Ike done with at this time in 2008 and Andrew was long past done at this time in 1992. I do not use past seasons as a prescedent of what's to come; for example, although we have a chance of seeing a Wilma, Mitch, Paloma, or Lenny-like storm in October and November, I don't directly count on it, since no two seasons are exactly alike. We got much luckier this year than we probrably ever could've been in the history of ever. Irene could have easily been a 100 billion-dollar storm if it hit NC as a cat 3 and NYC as a cat 2 like it was originally predicted. The timing of Irene's landfall couldn't have been any worse. The tides were at their peaks when it made landfall. New England suffered record August rainfall so the ground couldn't hold any more water, maximizing flood potential. The only thing that saved us was a patch of dry air that was over South Carolina and Georgia at the time Irene was doing her ERC. That dry air weakened her to a C1 when it made landfall in North Carolina, saving the coast from what could've been the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Although Irene was nowhere close to being a Katrina, 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths(mostly in the U.S) is still nothing to be taken lightly. Irene has a very likely chance of being retired, not 100% though, and it ended a very long drought on the east coast, the longest ever known between any two hurricanes there. Ryan1000 10:51, September 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 15% - Did lots of damage in Veracruz but not enough to be retired.
 * Bert - 2% - Never approached land.
 * Cindy - 0% - Hardly ever approached land.
 * Don - 1% - Made landfall in Texas and then BOOM, it was gone.
 * Emily - 5% - Some damage in the Caribbean but not enough.
 * Franklin - 0% - Who?
 * Gert - 2% - Brushed Bermuda.
 * Harvey - 5% - It did make landfall in Mexico, but not as a very strong storm.
 * IRENE - 99% - Billions of damage along the East Coast, loads of deaths. This will be retired.
 * Jose - 1% - Waste of time.
 * Katia - 10% - Hardly any damage.
 * Lee - 40% - Loads of flooding along the South coast and the eastern coast and 20 deaths.
 * Maria - 5% - Another version of Igor? No. Maria will never get retired.
 * Nate - 0% - Just dissipated as soon as it made landfall. I'll see you in 2017, Nate.
 * Ophelia - 15% - Brushed Bermuda, followed same track as Maria. It will never get retired.
 * Philippe - 0% - Only thing it actually did was last long and hit Iceland as a very weak extratrop. storm.
 * Rina - 5% - Hit Yucatan as a tropical storm, wasn't as bad as it could have been.
 * Sean - 1% - Fish storm.

Kiewii 09:19, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

In total, it looks like around one storm will be retired (~1.25). There is around a 95% chance that at least one storm will be retired. Dree12 20:14, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene 5%: Mexico has seen much worse damage than this, and deaths aren't the only indicator for retirement. It may have come as a surprise in late June, but I would be seriously surprised if Arlene left.
 * Bret ~0%: No damage
 * Cindy ~0%: No severe damage
 * Don ≤1%: Barely any damage, and was more benificial than harmful
 * Emily 5%: It's not the US or Mexico that got hit worst, but Emily wasn't a Klaus.
 * Franklin ~0%: No damage to speak of
 * Gert ≤1%: Bermuda has seen much, much, much worse.
 * Harvey ~0%: This is Mexico we're talking about.
 * Irene  90%: The US hasn't retired a hurricane since Ike, and although Irene wasn't as bad as Ike, 50 deaths and 7 billion of damage in the US alone isn't something to laugh at. If the US passes, the Caribbeen won't; there were much too many countries affected. More likely than not, Irene's going away for 30 years.
 * Ten 0%: Name cannot be retired.
 * Jose ~0%: No severe damage.
 * Katia 5%: Even England has seen much worse, and they aren't going to retire an extratropical storm
 * Unnamed Nova Scotia Tropical Storm 0%: Name cannot be retired.
 * Lee 5%: People will disagree with this, but the only tropical storm retired by the US was Allison, and Lee was no Allison.
 * Maria 5%: It was Canada which was hit, but Newfoundland has seen much worse.
 * Nate ≤1%: Caused more panic than damage.
 * Ophelia 10%: Not worse than Maria in Newfoundland, but since Dominica might seek retirement as well, the percentage is increased a little.
 * Philippe ~0%: Surprising longetivity, but no impact.
 * Rina: 5%: Lots of hype but little impact outside of Mexico.
 * Sean: ~0%: No impact at all.


 * I'm bored tonight, so I might as well post my predictions for this year for every storm.
 * Arlene; 5% - Arlene wasn't a horrible enough storm for Mexico to get itself off the list.
 * Bret; 1% - Well he impacted land.
 * Cindy; 0% - Survived over really cold waters for a long time, even got to near hurricane strength in them..but that doesn't earn retirement.
 * Don; 1% - I'm kind enough to give a percent for land impacts. :P
 * Emily; 5% - Hanna didn't get retired, Emily did way less damage and deaths so I doubt it has any significant chance. Preliminary damage reports aren't out yet, but I'm not assuming they were too serious.
 * Franklin; 0% - No.
 * Gert; 0% - An afternoon thunderstorm never earned retirement. Gert stayed far enough out to sea to impact Bermuda in a bad way.
 * Harvey; 1% - Harvey did minimal damage, and it seems very unlikely that he will be retired.
 * Irene; 98% - Last year everyone gave 99% chances to Karl..so I'll go with 98% so I don't look so foolish. But in reality, there are so many countries/states that have decent reasons to retire this name. 10bill in damage is no laughing matter, neither is horrible flooding in Puerto Rico and Vermont and extensive wind damage in the Bahamas. Oh and she also burnt down Richard Bransons private mansion on a private island, so the UK has a reason for retirement too. XD
 * Jose; 0% - No.
 * Katia; 5% - She killed people, and one of those people could've been the president of the WMO..so you can never say never here. Damage in Europe was bad, but not catastrophic.
 * Lee; 50% - I know a lot of people will disagree with me here. But if the 4 billion dollar damage estimates in Pennsylvania are confirmed to be from Lee then I see no reason that he shouldn't be retired. It all depends on if that flooding was directly from Lee or if it was from the front that absorbed Lee.
 * Maria; 1% - The reaction from the media here was nothing close to what they said about Igor, so I'm doubtful if this even has a 1% chance.
 * Nate; 1% - He pulled a Don at landfall in Mexico (he dissipated the second the center met land), so I'm assuming that damages were minimal at worst.
 * Ophelia; 40% - Some might call me crazy here too, but remember that Ophelia caused a huge amount of flooding damage in a French territory..and France is the most liberal country for retirements out there. Ophelia also caused enough problems in Canada too. Though this storm ended up a lot better than it could have been if it was a few hundred miles west when it was RIing. She would've reached her peak intensity right over Bermuda and could've been worse than Fabian.
 * Philippe; 0% - The oddest storm of the year, but never affected land.
 * And there you go. My thoughts on retirements this year. Yqt1001 04:29, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene; 15%- Was not really bad for Mexico.
 * Bret; 1%- Did not affect anyone, so retirement's out of the question.
 * Cindy; 0%- Survived over very cold waters of the North Atlantic, but that doesn't warrant retirement.
 * Don; 1%- Barely even gave rain to Texas which was hoping for it.
 * Emily; 5%- Not enough damage.
 * Franklin; 0%- Absolutley positively not.
 * Gert; 1%- Barely even affected Bermuda.
 * Harvey; 5%- Damage was minimal.
 * IRENE; 90%- 7 billion. It is very likely Irene will be retired.
 * Jose; 0%- As said in Franklin, absolutley positively not.
 * Katia; 10%- Would like to see some more damage reports. She affected Europe badly, but not it wasn't catastrophic.
 * Lee; 25%- Caused alot of damage in the US, though it may have been from a front. Lee is one to watch next spring.
 * Maria; 1%- Not going to be an Igor.
 * Nate; 1%- Pulled a Don, minimal damage is what Mexico got.
 * Ophelia; 50%- As said above, French territory may retire this. Ophelia caused problems in Canada to.
 * Philippe; 1%- Big fish like Cindy and Franklin.
 * Rina; 10%- Things could have been way worse here. Rina barely even did anything in the Yucatan.

HurricaneOwen99 13:59, October 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's official. Lee is officially one of the 14 1 billion dollar weather disasters this year in the US. (the total damage is really unknown though, it says +1 billion) This makes Lee more damaging than Fay, but still less damaging than Dolly, who wasn't retired either. Yqt1001 19:25, November 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hadn't imagined Lee as being that bad, but even Allison was still much worse. It did 5.1 billion in damage to the U.S. at the time it hit in 2001. There is certainly a chance Lee could be retired, but the damage wasn't catastrophic enough or widespread enough, especially for the U.S. The fact Lee didn't become a hurricane doesn't help his chances. Bret of 1993 killed over 120 people in catastrophic flooding in Venezuela yet wasn't retired, and I still don't know why Agatha of last year wasn't retired despite it's awful impact in Guatemala(certainly it was much worse for them than Lee for the U.S; Agatha killed as many as 300 people. Lee only killed around 20). I'll up Lee's chances to 40%, but I still don't think it will be retired. I still think Irene will be the only one that's definitely going. Ryan1000 23:36, November 4, 2011 (UTC)

Replacement names
Again, no harm in starting this early like in the WPAC. Do you guys have replacement names in mind for Irene (and/or Arlene/Emily)?

These are mine:

Female "I" names: Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:23, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Isa
 * Izzy
 * Ivy
 * Ila
 * Ilsa
 * Iman
 * Iphigenia
 * Idelia


 * What about Inga, Irma, or Ilsa? --HurricaneMaker99 03:38, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is also Irah (which was used years ago), Ilona, and Isla (pronouncd EYE-lah). Some strange "I" names are upon us... Check out Babynames.com, and look at the "I" names! Once we get past the aforementioned names, we are in for even weirder ones, as it looks like the "I" storm will always be at the peak of the season, and will commonly be a large offender. ~TDI19!!! ...To......From... 04:13, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Iva was formerly an EPac mystery retirement, perhaps due to the fact it was confusing with Iwa, which itself became retired due to it's destruction in Hawaii in 1982. My personal pick for Irene, if it even does become retired, would be Irma. And Arlene and Emily weren't bad enough for the places they hit, so I won't offer any replacements for them. Ryan1000 06:49, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).

Here are some more: 70.171.254.210 00:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ilaria
 * Imelda
 * Immacolata
 * Ines
 * Italia
 * Ilene
 * Ivory
 * Ivonette
 * Ivonne
 * Idoya
 * Ivette
 * Izumi
 * Iva
 * Ioanna
 * Irena

Ines seems unlikely due to Inez, which was formerly retired, and Irena seems a little too close to Irene IMO, but if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, both of which are 1 letter-off names, I won't rule it out. Italia seems unlikely as well since it's Spanish for Italy, a country's name(Israel replaced Ismael, a former EPac retiree, but it was never used because Israel felt offended from that name choice and requested it be removed). Again, my personal pick would be Irma. But we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 05:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Remember, Ryan, the statute of limitations on retired names is 30 years. Fabian (which replaced Frederic in 1979) was replaced with Fred in 2003. To follow up Hurricane Maker, I like Inga, but it may be too close to Ingrid, which is already on the list. Irma and Ilsa are also good options. Ivana is an option. I also like Imogen and Ileane but the latter may be too close to Ileana, which is in use in EPAC. Iva and Ivy are two other English options. If I had to pick a favorite, it would probably be either Inga or Ileane, which is phonetically the closest. -- SkyFury 22:54, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, the Federic>Fabian>Fred (mess up) from list 1 doesn't gurantee that the gap must be 30 years(especially since that was the only time it ever happened). Things can be different with replacement names. As I mentioned above, if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, which are both 1-letter off names from the retired name in question, it can't be said that the replacement name must be much different from the retiree in question, and the fact Ileana is in use in the EPac doesn't at all mean that Ileane can't be used as a replacement for Irene because Frank was used in last year's PHS and Franklin, a longer version of Frank and the name in place of Floyd, was used earlier this year in NAtl. So variants of names can be used in both ATL and EPac and replacement names can be one or two letters off from the retiree in question and still be acceptable by the requesting country. If you would rather stay away from variants of in-use names in either basin, names that are close to the retiree, or variants of former retirees, that's fine, but based on the facts, there is no gurantee a name can't be chosen under those conditions. When we requested Isabel of 2003, we send the names Ida, Ina, and Ivy as possible replacements of Isabel. The WMO selected Ida which was used two years ago, so given that they have two more backup "I" names, I wouldn't be surprised if Ina or Ivy is chosen. When a country requests a name to be removed, they send two or three possible names to replace the offending name. If it's different from any other name not in use and not formerly retired, the WMO just goes for it, I guess... My personal pick for Irene, as I mentioned earlier, would be Irma. Ryan1000 03:13, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

I was referring to your dismissal of Ines/Inez as an option because it was retired in 1966. Just because it was retired in 1966 doesn't mean it can't be reassigned now that 45 years have passed. The generally accepted statute of limitations is 30 years and so far this has been generally followed, though Fred definately pushed it at exactly 30 years. I agree with you that just because a name is close to one that is retired or in use in another basin does not mean that it can't be used. If it's close to one in use in the Atlantic, however, that might be different. I think Inga is far enough away from Ingrid that it could be used, though it would make more sense as a replacement for Ingrid itself. If I had to pick a favorite, it would be Ileane. I think it flows well, though I imagine it might look a little different spraypainted on plywood. -- SkyFury 06:25, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, as I mentioned earlier, the Frederic>Fabian>Fred trio from list 1 doesn't gurantee the gap must be 30 years. Heck, Rita of 2005 was one of the worst U.S. storms ever and it was replaced with Rina. The difference between Rita and Rina is just about the same as Frederic and Fred IMO. I personally also try to stay away from variations of former retirees, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Ileane wouldn't be bad, given Frank and Franklin are on both lists, there is no gurantee variants of EPac names can't be used in NAtl either. We truly don't know what will happen with replacement names, but I am baffled by some of the WMO's picks. Dean's was the best example of WTF. Fred's choice was baffling, but Dean's replacement name was the worst excuse for a replacement name in the history of ever. Felix and Noel just made it worse... (I'm not reminding you of how silly the French are). Ryan1000 09:22, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

I don´t know why you say Dorian is a bad name for replacement because I really like it and maybe Mexico send that name to replace Dean because in there Dorian is a popular name Allanjeffs 20:58, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">No, it was chosen because somebody important is an Oscar Wilde fan. Ryan, don't get me started on the French, I think you know how I feel about that. Some of the replacement names recently have been absolutely ridiculous. Pretty soon people won't be able to listen to the tropical update without giggling. "Here's Tropical Storm Dorian..." *hysterical laughter*. Dorian was the worst, but Fernand? As far as I'm concerned, that's a typo. Fernando would've been the perfect choice, especially given the Spanish theme and that's the name that I acknowledge. Katia was a little silly but at least it makes sense with the Russian theme of Katrina. Rina sounds like something bad that happens to your kidneys. Gonzalo replacing Gustav was dumb. Isaias is kind of cool. And they redeemed themselves last year with Ian and Tobias, though why Matthew wasn't retired is beyond me, and I'm still confused about Alex and Karl. Apparently they weren't as bad as initially reported. Hanna is still a crime. -- SkyFury 21:24, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Okay, end of that. I won't discuss anymore about the replacement name fails with the WMO. Pisses me off... If any name would be more descent for Gustav, it would have been Gary IMO. Ian should have been Ike's replacement. Why Matthew wasn't retired is no mystery to me because after all the reports I went through with Mexico and Nicaragua after Matthew, it couldn't have done 2.6 billion in damage. That must be a false number. And Mexico hasn't retired many other storms in the past Eric. Alex and Karl are two. Others include Emily of 2005(massive damage on the Yucatan and the gulf coast of Mexico), Liza of 1976(the worst crime in EPac history; as many as 950 deaths in Mexico and no retirement), along with Tara and Tico. Paul of 1982 was also destructive and deadly, but it caused most of it's destruction as a precursor wave and not a named tropical cyclone. Allan, I believe Dean was nominated by Martinique or Guadelupe, not Mexico. Dean did more damage in the lesser antillies than it did in the greater antillies because those smaller lesser islands get little warning of the storm, wheras Jamacia and Mexico have very advanced warning systems for tropical cyclones so they minimize destruction and/or deaths despite the storm's intensity. Agatha of last year is an utter mystery as well... Alma on the other hand, did become retired, but because Alma means "Soul" in Spanish, the reason behind her retirement after 2008 may have been the fact the name itself was offensive and was retired for that reason rather than being destructive. That's my opinion. Mexico is probrably more conservative for retirements than any other country except Haiti(well, they almost never retire names anyway... remember Tomas was nominated by St. Lucia last year). Ryan1000 22:14, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Matthew killed 143 people, Ryan. I couldn't care less what the damage figure is, the death toll is staggering. Death toll > property damage in my book. And also, I think you missed my point earlier. I never said the gap must be 30 years. I said 30 years was generally accepted as an unwritten policy. I never said that limit was a strict stipulation, but it's a courtesy generally adhered to. The only reason I even brought it up in the first place was because you said that Inez/Ines wasn't an option because it had been retired in 1966. I said just because it was retired 45 years ago doesn't mean we can't use it now. You spent a whole lot of time preaching to the choir. You're right, just because a replacement name is similar doesn't mean it can't be used. It's generally frowned upon though to replace a retired name with a shortened form of the same name, like replacing Michael with Mike for example. Or Frederic with Fred, though again, that was not done directly and it satisfied the 30 year statute of limitations. These aren't necessarily rules, just etiquettes. -- SkyFury 03:48, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

I know there isn't a requirement for the gap to be 30 years, but if there are exeptions to the "rule", then we can't say those exeptions won't repeat themselves. I'm not all upset over chosing close names to former retirees, but to some extent(like Ines/Inez), yes. If you also don't like that, that's fine. I also agree with you on the fact deaths should weigh more than damage, but things aren't always that way for retired names. My personal opinion on retired names is dependent on how many problems a storm causes for an entire country as a whole. Hurricane Irene this year cut off transportation, left millions of people without power, and caused extensive damage over a widespread area of the eastern seaboard. Some areas described it as their worst storm in many years(not refering to Darren's opinion there). So Irene has a very good chance of being retired based on that. Worldwide, the only true shoe-in is Yasi of the SPac, but it obliterated entire towns in Quensland from it's massive storm surge and caused many problems for all of Australia. It just has to be retired. Ryan1000 04:45, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Post Season Changes
It's not even close to post season yet, but during this lull in activity the NHC has been starting the TCRs already. The TCR for Cindy is out and she isn't as much of a fail as you guys thought. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down to 994mb and they said that Cindy was very close to a hurricane for nearly 8 hours and that any improvements in the eye and Cindy would've been the seasons first hurricane. So while we wait for the other TCRs, what do you guys think could be other changes? I personally think that one of the TS's (either Arlene, Gert or Harvey) will be upgraded to a hurricane and the third time Katia became a tropical storm will be a bit earlier and the upgrade back to a hurricane after that will be earlier also. Yqt1001 19:01, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * They aready finished Adrian.10Q.INVEST 19:54, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

I didn't expect that upgrade on Cindy, but it still spun fish nevertheless and sucked in ACE. We may change the face of this year with Ophelia, which is a story yet to come. Ryan1000 20:04, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I know this isn't really on topic, but did you guys still want to do the Hall of Fame thing at the end of the season. I added a bunch of info to the new forum page but everybody mysteriously lost interest, I guess because TC activity picked up. I never heard what people thought. -- SkyFury 20:24, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm ok with what you said and would still love to do it at the end of this season. I guess everyone is fine and is eagerly waiting until it starts. Yqt1001 20:49, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm actually kind of excited about it. Come November, we're going to really have to start talking about exactly what we want to do and how we want to do it. I have final exams the week of December 4, so we're probably looking at the final voting not taking place until the second or third week of December. Under the current expanded system, we're looking at voting being up to a three week affair, so, if we want to get this done by Christmas, we may want to go ahead and do the preliminary voting before the Thanksgiving holiday, given the spectre of exams for many of us come the last week of Nov/first week of Dec. Life comes first and I want a very relaxed atmosphere about this thing, so that's something I'll be thinking about come mid-October. But we've got plenty of time to think about it. -- SkyFury 06:49, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eugene is done too.10Q.INVEST 21:06, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Ok so after looking over all the microwave imagery for the TS's this year I have given each a percentage that they will be upgraded to a hurricane and why.
 * Arlene; 80% - There wasn't any microwave images for Arlene at peak strength BUT over land she had an eye better defined than Maria ever did so I would be surprised if she doesn't get upgraded.
 * Bret; 30% - He had a well defined eye at one point, but at that time he was in a weakening phase so I don't think he ever got the wind requirement for hurricane status.
 * Don; 0% - No.
 * Emily; 0% - No.
 * Franklin; 0% - No.
 * Gert; 20% - After looking at the microwave images of Gert at peak strength, she never completed more than a half of her eyewall. She probably could be upgraded to 65mph, but I doubt hurricane status.
 * Harvey; 40% - There wasn't any images of Harvey for the few hours before landfall, however the last image before landfall has Harvey with 3/4th of an eyewall, but the image of when Harvey made landfall shows very little in a form of a defined eye. Not even close to what Arlene's eye looked like over land.
 * Jose; 0% - No.
 * Lee; 0% - Never even had a defined center according to microwave imagery.
 * Nate; 0% - He had what appeared to be half an eyewall at peak intensity, but that eyewall was gone when the dry air got to him and he fell apart.

I'll post about the others when the season draws to a close. Yqt1001 20:49, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I think Irene will be upped to 125 mph and I'd keep everyone else where they are in category. Yqt, it is true Arlene got a well-defined eye, but while it was over land. Fay of 2008 also developed a clear and well-defined eye over land, but it never became upgraded to a hurricane, and I would keep every other storm of 2011 where they are, possibly some slight wind or pressure changes, but no new hurricanes or named storms. It is possible a few invests might have briefly been depressions, but I'm not calling on any post-season upgrades yet. Ryan1000 20:35, October 17, 2011 (UTC)</p
 * Well, I think it will be upgraded because the last microwave image before the one with the eye over land was nearly 9 hours before it. That microwave image also showed about 5/8 of an eyewall already formed. As you know, a lot can happen in 9 hours, so I still think it has a decent chance. Yqt1001 21:02, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure, but we'll have to wait and see. BTW, does anyone still feel like doing the hall of fame thing? Ever since Philippe and Ophelia dissipated, this forum has kind of lost it's activity, and although there is still a chance of a few more named storms, I think it's fair to say 2011 is closing up; well, the SHem will begin and NIO has one last chance this November/late October. Most of this year has passed, and any potential post-season upgrades we will have in NAtl will likely be minor anyways. Ryan1000 21:51, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Gert: 65mph, 1000mb. NHC says that Gert developed before she even was assigned a high chance of development. Yqt1001 19:26, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I don't think any of the first 8 storms became hurricanes, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of them developed sooner or later, and I think Irene's winds were a tad higher. The storm south of Newfoundland yesterday could be upgraded to a subtropical storm in post analysis, and Rina could have briefly been a C3. Ryan1000 20:15, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Beatriz is done with 90 mph.10'Q.'INVEST 04:14, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

Should we make a second section about this in the EPac forum? Ryan1000 20:03, October 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Franklin's done.10'Q.'INVEST 19:46, November 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * TD-8E in the Epac is out. Nothing to note with it, although it lasted for only 18 hours as a TC. Yqt1001 00:25, November 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don is out now. NHC has him weakened to a TD right before landfall. Yqt1001 19:05, November 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gert came out a while back, but it apparently did reach 65 mph in the TCR. However, as with notability, I think Irene probrably has the best chance of seeing post-season upgrades(or downgrades) this year. 942 mbars is awfully low for a 120 mph C3 hurricane. Id be surprised if Irene's winds aren't increased some or the pressure is down some, but other than that, I see no big changes. By the time this season's over, we could start the hall of fame elections and retirements part 2. I was surprised we got to this many named storms in 2011, but only Hurricane Irene stood out in any exceptional way. Ryan1000 01:38, November 10, 2011 (UTC)

Nate's TCR is out, upgraded to a 75 mph hurricane. 01F.KIEWII 19:21, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Woah! !!! Not expecting that. He never had any common characteristics of a hurricane (other than unconfirmed wind speed), but there you are. TCR also says that Nate's downfall was because of upwelling and not because of the extreme dry air to his north. Yqt1001 20:03, November 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * So if Nate was upgrade to a hurricane i cannot see why Sean and Arlene could not be upgrade even if is not probable because Nate peake at 70 supposedly before they change him to 75 and Arlene ans Sean peak at 65 so it would be a 10mph jump that I don´t think the NHC would do they typically just do 5mph change, never i have see more than that Allanjeffs 20:43, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nate kinda reminds of Cindy (the 2005 one) in a way that both were operationally thought to be 70 mph tropical storms, then were retroactively upgraded to weak, 75 mph hurricanes. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 21:34, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC made a huge change in Adrian (2005) from his initial landfall. He was origionally thought to be a hurricane when he hit the Pacific coast of Honduras, but he only hit as a measly TD. I wasn't quite expecting Nate's upgrade, but Sean and Arlene have a chance too. If I could only upgrade one of those two, it would be Sean. Sean just didn't quite meet the windspeed requirement, but it certainly could have been briefly, like Nate. I still don't know about Arlene though. And you said he had a 0% chance of being upgraded in post-season Yqt. Nate just made you eat your words. >:) Ryan1000 21:49, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, that's the fun in meteorology, Ryan, full of surprises. :P I wouldn't want the climate to be any other way actually! Yqt1001 22:07, November 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * This season is just full of surpises.!!!!Amazing!!!!Allanjeffs 22:23, November 17, 2011 (UTC)

The NHC have taken down Nate's TCR. 01F.KIEWII 13:35, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

Off Topic now kate of 1985 is the latest hurricane o make landfall in the USA Allanjeffs 22:08, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I thought the 1925 Florida Hurricane was the latest... November 30 vs November 21. I also think Sean will be upgraded post-season, either to a 70 mph storm or a hurricane like Nate. Ryan1000 06:10, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I think 994 millibars for a hurricane is really weak. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  16:40, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It was Ryan but in analysis find that it was just a TS and not a hurricane at landfallAllanjeffs 20:07, November 20, 2011 (UTC)

Ah, then the best track is wrong; it was originally thought to be a 100 mph C2, but was still a 65 knot storm when it struck southern Florida according to this. In that case, Kate was the latest, I guess. Ryan1000 05:23, November 21, 2011 (UTC)

The NHC has confirmed an extra storm formed during early September. This makes 19 tropical storms. 01F.KIEWII 01:53, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

Source please? Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:00, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

here and here 01F.KIEWII 02:03, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * So we are now tied with 2010. Impressive! Yqt1001 02:11, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

NOW I know! It's 96L.INVEST. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:10, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

It was 94L.INVEST, look here. 01F.KIEWII 02:18, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

The National Hurricane Center said this today: As part of its routine post-season review, the National Hurricane Center   occasionally identifies a previously undesignated tropical or subtropical cyclone. The NHC re-analysis of 2011 has concluded that a short-lived low that  passed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia from 31 August to 3 September briefly had sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical storm. With this addition, the total numbers of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for 2011 (so far) are 19, 7, and 3, respectively. A complete report on this system is in preparation and should be available on the NHC web page by 30 November. 01F.KIEWII 15:57, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

...on Facebook. Cyclone10 Contributions  17:41, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * As part of it's post season review, the NHC has decided not to upgrade 93L in October claiming that it was not a TC or STC but "something else". Yqt1001 20:06, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * And in the European Windstorm reanalysis, there was a tropical storm named Xander. So, 2 TCs in 1 year, wow.. .Never mind, that was in 2003. Cyclone10 Contributions  22:38, November 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Haha, :P 01F.KIEWII 22:45, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

NHC are releasing a statement on 94L tomorrow. 01F.KIEWII 01:31, November 28, 2011 (UTC)

Here we are! of the unnamed tropical storm from NOAA. 01F.KIEWII 18:39, November 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Harvey is up, 5mph increase of winds to 65mph. Harvey also lasted quite a bit longer than previously thought. Yqt1001 20:14, December 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * TCR for the Unnamed tropical storm is up, winds of 45 mph. The NHC had prepared advisories for it, but withdrew them when convection decreased. 13R.KIEWII 21:07, December 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * I finally got the...courage (we'll go with that) to look at Harvey's TCR. He did indeed become a TS in the BoC. Yqt1001 13:41, December 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene is out. No changes made. Well, I was pretty wrong here. :P Looks like Irene really was the seasons first hurricane (unless Bret gets upgraded). Yqt1001 21:59, December 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't see any storm before Irene getting upgraded to a hurricane. <span style="background-color:white; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #ff0033 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); border:1px solid #eb0; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; border-top-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; border-right:0;"><span style="border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex;">  Cyclone10  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #222 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#3399ff; border:1px solid #eb0; border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex;"> Talk  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#fff">  Contribs  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #ff0033 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0;">  Hurricane   <span style="border:1px solid #eb0; border-left:0; border-top-right-radius:1ex; border-bottom-right-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomright:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topright:1ex; background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#000"> 00:06,12/8/2011

Ophelia's TCR is out. Nothing really changed with her. Yqt1001 20:54, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

Replacement names (part 2)
This section has not been discussed in a while. Ever since Irene, we have Lee (I don't know if he'll go though).

Here are my revised replacement names:

Lee - Lance, Laurence, Len, Leonard, Li, Lincoln (IDK about this), Louis, Luke

Irene - IIsa, Isa, Izzy, Ivy, Iva, Iman, Iphegenia, Ivana, Ixchel

Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:39, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">If the destruction in Dominica was severe enough for Ophelia, it could be retired, but the thing is, Dominica is much different from Martinique/Guadeloupe in terms of their track record(because it's not a French territory, but rather it's own nation), so it probrably won't be a Klaus, not to mention it was largely a remnant low when it did affect the lesser antillies anyway. Ryan1000 01:59, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">More Male L names:

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Luigi, Leonardo, Linguini, Luciano, Lino, Luca, Lucas, Leandro, Lionel, Leon, Leroy, Ludwig, Lambert. Andros 1337 20:34, November 11, 2011 (UTC)

Now that the season has pretty much ended, I have made my final picks on replacement names(though I think only Irene will be retired, I'll put down a name for Arlene, Irene, Lee, and Ophelia).


 * Irene - Irma(as said above)
 * Lee - Lucas
 * Ophelia - Orson
 * Arlene - Abby

These are my personal picks for possible retirees of 2011, but again, of these names, Irene is the only one that's definitely going IMO. Ryan1000 21:03, November 15, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan Orson is a male name so it can not replace Ophelia Allanjeffs 02:11, November 16, 2011 (UTC)


 * It doesn't sound like it, but Orson can be male or female Allan, like Kirby. It may sound more masculine than feminine, but Cyclone Orson of 1989 was used as a female name and it was one of the worst storms in western Australia's history. I know it may be a bit frowned upon to use that, but it is a possibility, I know. Ryan1000 15:11, November 16, 2011 (UTC)


 * Eugene was a male name in the EPac this year. Sounds female to me, but apparently it's masculine... Yqt1001 21:37, November 16, 2011 (UTC)

CSU Verification
Enjoy it! Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 21:42, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hmmm... So overall ACE was more near 124.5. That doesn't make much of a difference, and although 2011 had many missed opportunities, it was bad enough with Irene. There were 90.5 days of active storms in 2011, which, although it's the 6th highest number since 1944, only totals to your average storm lasting about 4.7 days. That's one of the lowest average storm day totals ever. Ryan1000 23:09, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

2012 season
Right here. Cyclone10  Contributions  02:43, December 1, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance (part 2)
With the season over, it's time to start part 2. I think the following:
 * 10% for Arlene - She hit Mexico and caused minor damage there. She hit Mexico, that's really enough to warrant a 0%.
 * 2% for Bret - Well, he did affect land.
 * 0% for Cindy
 * 0% for Don - He technically made landfall as a TD so his landfall doesn't get a 1%
 * 3% for Emily - Nothing really happened with Emily in the end.
 * 0% for Franklin
 * 0% for Gert - Didn't technically affect Bermuda
 * 3% for Harvey - He made landfall at a respectable intensity, but it wasn't as bad as it could've been.
 * 98% for Irene - I know some people will get mad at me for putting so much hope into Irene, but really, there are many countries/states that had significant damage to retire it, and retirement is very, very likely.
 * 0% for Jose
 * 1% for Katia - She caused deaths, and technically her damage in the UK counts, but I doubt that they even know how to retire a storm....
 * 60% for Lee - If the damage in Pennsylvania s confirmed to be because of him, then he is going to be retired, with 4 billion in damage from that state alone. The gulf coast alone also has a significant reason to retire him. We'll see what happens in the post season though.
 * 1% for Maria - She did affect Canada.
 * 1% for Nate - He pulled a Don at landfall, but he did kill some people so you never know.
 * 1% for Ophelia - TCR came out showing that the flooding in Dominica was not because of Ophelia, pretty much removing her chances. She still hit Canada, but wasn't that bad.
 * 0% for Philippe - He never seemed to die, but never killed anyone. Win win situation here! :)
 * 1% for Rina - Well this storm was very close to a bad storm for Mexico, but thankfully she decided to just drop down to a TS before landfall instead of a category 3 hurricane like she was supposed to be. She did less damage in Mexico than Arlene in the end.
 * 0% for Sean - A nice November TC, but didn't do much in the end.

Now post you predictions for retirement! Yqt1001 21:07, December 8, 2011 (UTC)