Forum:2019-20 Australian Region cyclone season

Betting pools for this page

Related Pages:
 * 2019-20 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools)
 * 2019-20 South Pacific cyclone season (Betting pools)

AOI: Well North of the Kimberley Coast
It's been eerily quiet in this basin, but it appears that the Australian region's hibernation is coming to a close. BOM is monitoring something in this area for potential development, currently with a "Low" chance for Monday and a potentially higher chance afterwards. Blake, anyone? ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  20:46, December 27, 2019 (UTC)

Down to "Very Low" chance for now, although it could still become something by next weekend. ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  21:07, December 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * There is already excellent agreement between the ECMWF, ICON and GFS that this will become a CATEGORY 5 in 10 days at landfall on the Pilbara or Kimberley Coast. -- Java Hurricane  03:54, December 31, 2019 (UTC)


 * That sounds scary, I guess this is one to really watch out for. Now on BOM's western outlook with a "low" chance. ~  Steve   Goodbye  2019!  ⚰️  06:53, January 1, 2020 (UTC)


 * The Australian region has been unsually quiet! I do not believe there has been another season in this basin that has made it to the new year without cyclone formation! This particular AOI is not a tropical low yet per the BoM, but it seems that it will be far enough from Australia to quickly develop. JavaHurricane, are the models forecasting a Category 5 landfall on the SSHWS or the Australian scale? Regardless, if that prediction verifies, this AOI will be a storm to remember. For now, the AOI has a low chance of developing by the end of the week. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:22, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

We might get a storm or two to form here soon enough, we'd need less than 3 tropical storms to beat the record-dead 2015-16 season. Also Steve, I see that you've made some changes to the active storms header for 2020 to add invests that haven't formed yet, which looks nice, but I believe we need more clarity on seeing the words we type, so I darkened the background a little bit. Also, is the "unusual basins" really needed for separate storm formation? Or can we just keep on adding south atlantic storms and mediterranean storms to the Atlantic when they form, since they aren't that common to begin with? Ryan1000 15:05, January 2, 2020 (UTC)
 * The latest GFS run is horrible enough... https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/535652444038889472/662134205924507679/gfs_mslp_wind_aus_52.png. Please look at that at your own risk. Obtained from a Discord server I am on. -- Java Hurricane  15:21, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

Man, looks like Blake-to-be will be immensely devastating if that 919 mbar cat 5 scenario comes to pass...hopefully the actual intensity ends up being more conservative, or it strikes an unpopulated area of the northwestern coastline. Ryan1000 15:54, January 2, 2020 (UTC)

The ECMWF also wants a large version of Tracy to thrash Darwin. -- Java Hurricane  16:21, January 2, 2020 (UTC)


 * Even if this AOI does not reach the intensity that the models are forecasting, the BoM warns that Western Australia could receive heavy rainfall from this system. A major threat seems to be developing indeed, although we may not see a tropical cyclone for another few days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:13, January 2, 2020 (UTC)


 * Yeah, the models really concern me. This might become significant next week. Ryan, I created "unusual basins" because the South Atlantic and Mediterranean are not considered a real part of the normal Atlantic basin and I've always thought that putting those storms on that forum page looked out-of-place. The "Atlantic hurricane season" is only for storms that develop in the North Atlantic basin - the South Atlantic and Mediterranean are not part of that basin (as confirmed on Wikipedia when only North Atlantic storms are in the season pages; South Atlantic and Mediterranean storms get completely separate pages and are considered completely separate basins). Plus if storms forming in the South Atlantic and Mediterranean are placed on the North Atlantic forum page, new users might mistake those as also being North Atlantic storms. Java, that pic is really f**ing scary. ~  Steve 🎉   Happy  2020!  🎆  01:11, January 3, 2020 (UTC)

Eh, I suppose that makes sense; in that case, I'll remove the South Atlantic storms part of the betting pools for the Atlantic this year. The Southeast Pacific just west of South America is the only other potential place of unusual formation, though no TC has ever formed there before. Also, one more thing, the hurricane hall of fame elections for 2020 are now open, if any of you want to vote on new storms there. Ryan1000 05:02, January 3, 2020 (UTC)
 * Latest GFS model run takes this to 930 mbar. Gfs_mslp_wind_aus_22.png -- Java Hurricane  06:44, January 3, 2020 (UTC)
 * And ECMWF brings a Tracy-type storm near Darwin in 9 days. -- Java Hurricane  06:48, January 3, 2020 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
Invested and up to "Moderate" chance for Monday. Not officially a tropical low yet, but BOM forecasts Tropical Low 02U to develop from this. ~  Steve 🎉   Happy  2020!  🎆  16:43, January 3, 2020 (UTC)

Now code yellow per JTWC. ~  Steve 🎉   Happy  2020!  🎆  00:53, January 4, 2020 (UTC)


 * The latest 00Z runs of the GFS and Euro are taking this system very close to, if not making landfall on, Broome in Western Australia. The intensity of both runs has been confident in the low 970 mbar range, which could put Blake-to-be as a category 2-3 storm. The last very strong tropical cyclone to directly affect Broome was (I believe) category 4 Rosita in April of 2000, near the end of that season. Ryan1000 05:18, January 4, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low 02U
After no tropical cyclones in the Australian region, two form at once! With respect to this tropical low, BoM and JTWC seem to be predicting contradicting futures. The most recent BoM track map does not show 02U becoming a tropical cyclone for the next 72 hours. However, the JTWC notes that 02U is in an environment with SSTs of 30 to 31 degrees Celsius, in addition to robust poleward and equatorward outflow. The latter also mentions that most models are forecasting rapid development over the next couple of days. Regardless of what occurs, Western Australia should expect some strong winds from Tropical Low 02U. According to Wikipedia, the BoM estimates that 02U has winds of 25 knots (30 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa). Moreover, the JTWC is giving this system (a.k.a. Invest 91S) a medium chance of formation in the next 24 hours by their standards. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:25, January 4, 2020 (UTC)
 * With the formation of these tropical lows, 2019-20 is off to the 2nd-latest start on record (after the 1986-87 season). The BOM currently forecasts this system to reach C2 intensity on the Aus scale before it makes landfall near Port Hedland. BTW, in the active storms template, you forgot to put these lows under the Australian region basin! I fixed it all for you; only this one might be organized enough to be considered a TC (or close enough to a TC, as in other "U" designated lows) while the Banda Sea low is too weak and thus stays under "Areas to watch for development" (where unnumbered lows should be). Next time make sure to read the color and formatting guides a bit more carefully. :) ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:10, January 4, 2020 (UTC)


 * Sorry about that, I am still learning how to edit with the new format of that template. As for Tropical Low 02U, something interesting is happening. According to Wikipedia, the BoM is currently reporting winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 993 mbar (hPa), which would normally warrant an upgrade to tropical cyclone status. However, because these winds are only occurring in the western half of 02U's circulation, the tropical low has not yet been upgraded. Moreover, the BoM is still forecasting 02U to attain Category 2 winds on the Australian scale before landfall. Meanwhile, the JTWC has issued their first advisory on Tropical Cyclone 06S. With winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained), they expect intensification to 45 knots (50 mph) prior to landfall, as well the remnant circulation to persist over Australia for a few days. It seems that the models severely overhyped how strong Tropical Low 02U was going to be! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:53, January 6, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Blake
It's finally been named. 40 knots (45 mph)/993 mbar according to BOM, currently. And 35 knots (40 mph) per JTWC. Still forecast by BOM to reach C2 intensity, equivalent to a strong tropical storm. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:56, January 6, 2020 (UTC)
 * Made landfall over the Dampier Peninsula, forecast to weaken now. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 05:13, January 7, 2020 (UTC)
 * Currently 40 knots (45 mph)/986 mbar per BOM and 35 knots (40 mph) per JTWC as it nears landfall on the mainland between Broome and Port Hedland. It appears land interaction kept it in check ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:08, January 7, 2020 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Blake
It has made landfall and is moving inland. R.I.P. to the first tropical cyclone of this season. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:16, January 8, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: In Arafura and Timor Seas
Although no tropical low has formed yet, the BoM is acknowledging the possibility of one developing from a monsoon trough in the Arafura and Timor Seas in the next few days. The agency gives a very low chance of formation for this system over the next few days and acknowledges the uncertainties of intensification/movement ahead. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:47, January 2, 2020 (UTC)
 * This is from the same monsoon trough that the above system is expected to develop from. It's possible a separate system could develop from this in the northern region, but the priority for now is on the above system. ~  Steve 🎉   Happy  2020!  🎆  01:15, January 3, 2020 (UTC)

The global models actually seem to be more aggressive with this system than 91S in their latest runs after this moves on, though 91S (Blake-to-be) is a bigger threat for now. Ryan1000 05:07, January 4, 2020 (UTC)

Banda Sea Tropical Low
According to the BoM, this AOI is a tropical low as well. With a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa) (per Wikipedia), the agency is now giving the system a low chance of formation over the next few days and note this probability will increase next week. The JTWC has not mentioned this system in their outlook.

On a side note, according to Wikipedia, 2019-20 has the second-latest start to a season in this basin, after 1986-87. I think an analogy to this season is the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. The latter had no named storms until the middle of August. Then Ana, Bill, and Claudette formed in the span of a week. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:35, January 4, 2020 (UTC)


 * 2009 does sound like a good analogy, but January is also equivalent to July in the NHem (not August), although the Australian basin usually gets more active earlier in the season than the Atlantic does. With 02U bound to become Blake, this one has Claudia potential and might even be a very significant cyclone in the future if models mentioned by Ryan come to fruition. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:15, January 4, 2020 (UTC)

Banda Sea Tropical Low (92S.INVEST)
Invested on Tropical Tidbits. Still nothing on JTWC. -- Java Hurricane  00:56, January 5, 2020 (UTC)


 * This tropical low is now on the JTWC website. However, it appears that Invest 92S is rather disorganized. Despite good equatorward outflow and SSTs of 31 to 32 degrees Celsius, the JTWC notes that the amount of time the invest has over water may limit its intensification. Moreover, the BoM is reporting a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) from this tropical low (per Wikipedia) and also continuing to forecast slow development over the next several days. The former agency predicts a low chance of formation over the next 24 hours, whereas the latter gives a moderate chance of formation in the next few days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:29, January 6, 2020 (UTC)
 * Now high chance per BOM and code orange on JTWC. Currently 25 knots (30 mph)/1001 mbar per BOM and forecast to intensity to a C2-strength system. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:12, January 7, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low 03U
Finally designated by BOM. Forecast to remain relatively weak while it moves over the coast of Northern Australia, and after passing over Darwin, forecast to intensify to a C2 system as it spends time over water. Claudia is coming, but depending on how land interaction affects it, it might be named either very soon or in a few days from now. According to BOM, the system is currently 25 knots (30 mph)/997 mbar and is code red on JTWC (TCFA issued). ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:21, January 8, 2020 (UTC)
 * Onshore in Top End. TCFA cancelled. -- Java Hurricane  12:39, January 9, 2020 (UTC)
 * Now 25 knots (30 mph or 45 km/h) and 1000 mbar according to BOM. Before it made landfall near Maningrida it peaked at 40 mph (35 knots)/997 mbar according to Wikipedia. Currently code orange per JTWC and still "High" chance per BOM. This is still one to watch for a significant "Claudia" once it moves back over water. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:48, January 9, 2020 (UTC)

(Eek, I haven't logged in here in months... hopefully I'll be able to post more often now.) JTWC has issued a TCFA once again, while BOM now shows it back over water just northwest of Darwin. This is still expected to reach and maintain Aus C2 on January 12-13 but could go higher afterwards. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:17, January 10, 2020 (UTC)
 * Welcome back! :) If you notice I've made some changes for the new year, including a new logo and a redesigned active storms template. Hopefully you like the changes (other users I've talked to are satisfied, so far) and will be more active from now on during your less busy days.


 * Anyhow, 03U is now 30 knots (35 mph)/997 mbar per BOM. Hopefully any impacts while it was over land weren't too bad. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:39, January 10, 2020 (UTC)


 * The redesigned active storms template looks excellent, it's much clearer than before. The new logo - Dorian I presume? - makes the wiki look more modern too (idk, that's what I'm getting from that image). Definitely beneficial changes there. Going back to 03U, BOM has started issuing technical bulletins again and explicitly forecasts 03U to reach severe TC status, with an expected peak of 70 knots. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:25, January 11, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Claudia
After a long week, Tropical Low 03U now has gale-force winds extending across the majority of its circulation. Named Claudia by the BoM, it appears that a ridge will keep the storm away from the Australian coast from now on. Although SSTs will be favorable enough to support Claudia for the next few days, shear may prevent significant intensification depending on the system's motion. According to Wikipedia, the BoM is reporting winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa). Moreover, the JTWC also estimates winds to be 35 knots (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 45 knots (50 mph) in its first advisory for Claudia. The latter agency expects peak winds to be 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 100 knots (115 mph). Impactwise, Claudia has dropped some rain on Australia! Case in point - one locality received precipitation totals of 410 millimeters (16.1 inches)! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:15, January 11, 2020 (UTC)
 * Now 35 knots (40 mph)/993 mbar per BOM and 45 knots (50 mph) per JTWC. BOM also forecasts a C3-strength cyclone (Aus scale) and both the BOM and JTWC are confident that it will peak as a hurricane-strength system. @KN: Yep, it's Dorian, and I'm glad you're satisfied with the changes. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:10, January 11, 2020 (UTC)


 * Now Category 2 on the Australian scale, with BOM giving 60 knots (10-min), 979 hPa. BOM expects it to reach 75 knots now. JTWC is matching with 60 knots (1-min). ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:22, January 12, 2020 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Although the BoM has been forecasting shear to be detrimental to Claudia's development, this storm is coming together very nicely. Moreover, the JTWC is noting the presence of a microwave eye in Claudia's circulation. Per Wikipedia, the BoM is now reporting winds of 65 knots (75 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 976 mbar (hPa) from the cyclone, giving us our first severe tropical cyclone of the season. Moreover, the JTWC is estimating winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 85 knots (100 mph). As outflow continues improving, the latter agency predicts a peak intensity with 90-knot (105 mph) (1-minute sustained) winds and gusts up to 110 kts (125 mph). At this rate, I will not be surprised if Claudia becomes a Category 4 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. However, decreasing SSTs and increasing shear will likely stop any intensification in a day or so. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:44, January 12, 2020 (UTC)


 * 70 knots (10-min) and 971 hPa from BOM, 80 knots (1-min) from JTWC. Not much strengthening is forecast, mostly because shear is still pretty high and causing intrusions of surrounding dry air, also SSTs will become borderline by late Tuesday. Though BOM shows the winds flatlining, JTWC still expects Claudia to pull off SSHWS C2 in the next twelve hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:24, January 13, 2020 (UTC)


 * Now 75 knots (85 mph)/969 mbar per BOM and still 80 knots (90 mph) per JTWC. JTWC no longer forecasts a C2 (SSHWS) and just shows weakening from here on out, as does the BOM. I believe it's currently near its peak intensity. Strong shear is currently affecting the system as well as increasing dry air, with SSTs expected to drop to 26-27 degrees Celsius, and these increasingly hostile conditions should seal its fate in the next few days. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:00, January 13, 2020 (UTC)


 * Claudia briefly managed to become a Category 2 cyclone per the JTWC earlier today (January 13), but with the outflow diminishing and SST's decreasing, the cyclone has begun to weaken. The BoM is now reporting winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 975 mbar (hPa). Moreover, the JTWC estimates Claudia's winds to be 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute sustained) , with gusts of 100 knots (115 mph). Both agencies expect the system to continue weakening over the next few days. Moreover, a ridge should eventually cause Claudia to begin moving in a more westward direction. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:53, January 14, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Claudia (2nd time)
No longer a STC and is down to 50 knots (60 mph)/989 mbar per BOM and 45 knots (50 mph) per the JTWC. Expected to dissipate by Thursday. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:03, January 15, 2020 (UTC)
 * Claudia is barely maintaining tropical cyclone strength now, with 10-min winds of 35 knots. It won't be long before the remaining convection dissipates and Claudia gets downgraded to a TL. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:45, January 15, 2020 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Claudia
It's dead, no longer a TC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:14, January 15, 2020 (UTC)

Tropical Low near Barkly District
This is mentioned on BOM's northern outlook, although has a "Very Low" chance of development. ~ <font face="Verdana"> ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:07, January 25, 2020 (UTC)