Forum:2019 Pacific typhoon season/Hagibis

93W.INVEST
New system on Tidbits located north of the Marshall Islands. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:18, October 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:55, October 4, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (93W)
Now a TD on JMA's weather map (1008 mbar), still code yellow on JTWC. Models seem to explode this system on its approach to Japan. I don't like the looks of this thing. Here comes our next super typhoon IMO. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:14, October 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued, now being warned on by JMA. Currently 35 mph/1004 mbar. Again I don't have a good feeling about this potential monster. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:52, October 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 20W
Now a TD according to JTWC. Should strengthen to become Hagibis in the next day or so. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:16, October 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hagibis
Now a tropical storm, still forecast to become absolutely intense. I have a feeling this is going to rival some of the strongest typhoons on record... ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:38, October 6, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Hagibis
Continues to intensify quickly, now 75 mph (JTWC), 80 mph (JMA)/970 mbar. JTWC takes it to 135 knots, making it guaranteed that this will be our next super typhoon. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:57, October 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 75 kn for JMA and 100 kn for JTWC. And holy crap, it's EIing faster than expected. This could be a C4 (or even a C5) by Monday.  Sandy 156   :)  02:48, October 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Whoa, JMA now has it at 100 knots as well. The pressure is already quite low, at 925 mbar. This might rival the most powerful typhoons in memory if it keeps going on like this. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:48, October 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC has Hagibis at 130 kt. Dvorak at T7.0. -- Java Hurricane  08:12, October 7, 2019 (UTC)

140 kt/915 mb. Dvorak at T7.7. Hagibis is now the strongest of the season. Could very well go down to 900 mb or even below that. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:14, October 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Weakened to 155 mph according to JTWC but expected to restrengthen once the EWRC is done with.  Sandy 156   :)  05:24, October 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * This monster's intensity has stayed the same overnight and through the morning. I expect it to recover, and potentially RI again to a sub-900 mbar beast. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:15, October 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * Beginning to intensify again... JTWC has upped it to 140 knots/160 mph while the JMA intensity remains the same. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:48, October 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * Finally starting to weaken as it approaches Japan, down to 150 mph (130 knots) (JTWC), 115 mph (100 knots) (JMA), 920 mbar. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:13, October 10, 2019 (UTC)


 * According to JMA it has now weakened to C2 intensity, 110 mph (95 knots)/925 mbar. Remains 150 mph (130 knots) per JTWC. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:43, October 10, 2019 (UTC)

Closing in on Japan, now down to 140 mph (120 knots) according to JTWC. Remains 110 mph (95 knots)/925 mbar on JMA for now. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:00, October 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 105 mph (90 knots) (JMA), 130 mph (115 knots) (JTWC), 935 mbar. Expected to make landfall near Tokyo by tomorrow as a still powerful typhoon. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:54, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

Still a C4, and this is looking bad for Japan by the minute. Some consider this as the worst since either Ida (1958) or Vera (1959) -- I hope Hagibis won't be that deadly and destructive. Some events related to the Rugby World Cup and the Japanese Grand Prix have already been cancelled due to Hagibis's threat. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:59, October 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Continuing to gradually weaken on its approach to Japan - still the same intensity per JMA but down to 120 mph (105 knots) (JTWC). I sure hope this isn't going to become a devastating disaster or one of the costliest ever for Japan. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:30, October 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 100 mph (85 knots) (JMA)/945 mbar. Expected to make landfall by tomorrow morning (PDT time). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:55, October 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * Closing in on landfall, down to 105 mph (90 knots) per JTWC while JMA stays the same for now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:11, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall in Izu Peninsula
Made landfall some time ago, just to the southwest of Tokyo, but brought some surge and rain there. Hagbis wasn't nearly as strong as Faxai earlier in the season, but was still a typhoon. Ryan1000 15:25, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hopefully damages won't be as high as I fear. Now down to 85 mph (75 knots) (JTWC), 80 mph (70 knots) (JMA), 965 mbar and will weaken further as it heads into colder waters northeast of Japan. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:30, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Hagibis
Downgraded to a STS per JMA, 70 mph (60 knots)/975 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:49, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * According to this tweet the death toll is currently two, with 70 others injured. Additionally, rainfall records have been broken in some parts of Honshu. This is becoming a historic typhoon for Japan; in fact, Tokyo recorded its strongest wind gust ever (158 kph) because of Hagibis. News outlets say that this is the "strongest" to hit Japan in more than 60 years (thought they were referring to Vera but apparently they are pertaining to Ida in 1958 which had a similar track to Hagibis), but as far as I know it is not the case -- even Jebi from last year was stronger, I think. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 19:57, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Hagibis & Aftermath
No longer a tropical cyclone, downgraded to a low on JMA with JTWC having issued a final warning earlier. The death toll is rising, I think it's now at least 11. This could have been a historic storm for Japan... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:05, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * 26 dead, 17 missing, several others injured, some levees failed in Japan... this is getting worse by the hour. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:32, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hagibis is now considered to be the worst to hit the Kantō region since Ida in 1958. According to this article, at least 35 fatalities are now attributed to the typhoon, with 20 others missing; meanwhile, NHK World reports that the death toll is currently at 31. In terms of retirement chances, I still doubt it at this point, despite Hagibis being a record typhoon for this area of Japan (which was hit by Faxai only a month prior). For instance, Talas in 2011 -- though significantly weaker than Hagibis -- caused more fatalities and still did not get the boot, as Japan is really lax when it comes to retiring typhoon names, as they refer to typhoons by their storm [formation] number. (I think the only typhoons that were retired because of their impacts in Japan were 1982's Bess and 1991's Mireille). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:19, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Death toll now at 73, 12 others missing. Damage estimates now at $9 billion, which would make Hagibis the 4th costliest Japanese typhoon after Mireille, Jebi and Songda. That estimate also makes the 2019 Pacific typhoon season the 3rd costliest on record -- $25.7 billion, mainly from Lekima, Faxai and this one -- only behind 2013 ($25.95B) and 2018 ($30.23B). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:30, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * This has been a really tragic event. What a high death & damage total. 🙁 Once the totals are completely finalized this might make a run for the costliest in Japanese history. But as much as we would like it to be retired, it's not going to happen because of Japan using numbers instead of names for typhoons. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:56, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Death toll up to 86. I'm giving Hagibis its own archive due to how powerful and devastating it was for Japan. This may rank as one of the worst storms in Japanese history. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:51, November 2, 2019 (UTC)