Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why? rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)

IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Isis retired
Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.)  rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. Ryan1000 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001  leeboy100 My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS CPac storm
GFS is showing an small hurricane or TS by its end of the 12z run.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:47, July 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Currently near 0%. All models agree something will at least try to form. Less support now though. YE Pacific Hurricane  11:38, July 30, 2015 (UTC)::10
 * 10%. YE Pacific Hurricane  20:32, July 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) This AOI is moving westward at some 10 mph per the CPHC. Due to unfavorable upper-level winds and disorganization, I do not expect a TC from this. Chances of formation are now near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:46, August 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * This AOI has been dropped off the CPHC TWO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:30, August 3, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #2
GFS has this becoming a TS by day 13. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * After dropping this for a few runs, 12z GFS today brought this to a hurricane in 9 days. YE Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:41, July 26, 2015 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
10/50. Got some banding already and two very nice outflow channels. And is fairly well-organized and is in very favorable conditions for 3 days. If convection persists, this can become a depression within 24 hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * The NHC says conditions around 92E may result in TC formation later this week, but it already looks like a tropical depression IMO. I'm not sure if Guillermo is going to have any (indirect) impacts on the invest, but I think the latter has a decent chance at becoming a hurricane, if not a major. Chances of formation are now 30% for the next two days and 80% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:30, August 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * 92E has gained a lot of organization in the past six hours, and I expect a tropical depression within the next few days. Chances of formation for the next two days have risen to 50%, which no change in the five-day percentages. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:53, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * I am not too excited about this one doing much. Dry air is lurking and the global models aren't too bullish. With the way thing have been going lately, another weak TS is likely, if it develops of course. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:15, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's now 60/80! I see this potentially becoming Hilda, but since it is very likely to develop at this point, I guess it'll only be a weak to moderate TS. I still hope this system tries its hardest though. Better a strong TS/minimal hurricane than another weakling fail like Felicia. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:04, August 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilda
now TS. it going to follow Guillermo's track. it has hurricane in 5-days <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:53, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still a somewhat elongated system and may be attached ITCZ. Dry air looks to be not too favorable after 2-3 days. The NHC's peak intensity of 65 knots could be too high, but if it organizes quickly, it might become a hurricane before then. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:44, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * ATCF up to 45 knts, but with microwave imagery, a case could be made for 50 to 55 knots. Small ITCZ storms tend to have lots of ups and downs. This is likely an "up". But I will admit this has a good shot at becoming a solid Cat 1. Stronger still isn't something I'd bet one due to dry air, but if it can developed a structure that blocks out dry air well like what we've seen storms do furthe east in recent years, I guess a Cat 2/3 is possible. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:22, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hoping this does become a hurricane because Hilda currently stands as the only EPAC TC name to be used at least 6 times without ever reaching hurricane strength. Latest advisory has Hilda's intensity up to 50 kts/1001 mbar, with a forecast peak of 75 kts. Fingers crossed... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:42, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * I actually hadn't realized that...before I thought Erick was the only one, though he did finally make it to a hurricane two years ago, looks like it's Hilda's turn (though Hilda was a hurricane in the Atlantic a few times before 1979, retired in '64). In the Atlantic, Beryl and Ana are the only storms to be used every time since 1979 and never reach hurricane strength, excluding Ana's CPac incarnation last year. Ryan1000 20:57, August 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * we can use 2009's Carlos as an example. it formed in the ITCZ and became a hurricane. also it has some really nice-looking banding features in satellite imagery. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:43, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * I meant by the time Erick was coming around in 2013, that was also the case with Bud and Ernesto back in 2006 (EPac and ATL respectively), but either way it looks like Hilda is going to have her first shot at being a hurricane now too. Ryan1000 02:20, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hilda is still at 50 kts according to ATCF. Sigh... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:55, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * I still hope we see a hurricane from this! C'mon, Hilda, you've got this! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:47, August 7, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilda
Congratulations, Hilda! After 36 years of failing, you finally did it! 80 mph and 984 mbars as of the latest advisory. And like Guillermo, it's expected to pass north of Hawaii and not hit the islands. Ryan1000 22:09, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, YES!!!! Forecast peak of 85 kts as of now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:26, August 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well, Hilda finally became a hurricane after 36 years, but the bad news is Soudelor is going to make landfall in the next few hours, I won't be able to sleep easy knowing what the people in Taiwan have to go through, but at least Hilda became a hurricane.  leeboy100 My Talk! 22:46, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * This has bombed out. It's probs around 95 knots now, as very cold cloud tops have developed around a rapidly clearing eye. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:40, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * as YE is saying. Hilda is possibly a category 3 or even 4 now. the cloud tops are become even more colder than the last advisory. so we might a an special advisory asap. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:02, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this thing is going to be taking off very soon, it could even have a shot at cat 5 if it RI's quickly enough. But for a storm with a circulation this small, that's not too surprising, and it'll weaken just as fast eventually. Ryan1000 02:49, August 8, 2015 (UTC)

up to a C2!. has major in the crosshairs and the RI that's undergoing might evolve to a EI if the conditions are good. pretty rare for an ITCZ-born storm. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:44, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's not unheard of for small storms to explode here before, but they don't last long at peak intensity when they do so. Hilda should be a cat 3 soon, and could be a 4 afterwards if favorable conditions persist. Ryan1000 11:41, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Just a hair below MH strength per ATCF: EP, 10, 2015080812,, BEST, 0, 135N, 1416W, 95, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 10, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, Come on Hilda, become a major! You got this! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:04, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wow. Hilda made me eat my words. --Puffle Let's party HARD!
 * Likely around 100 knots. CPHC is just dumb. Eye has been warming, become more cloud-free, and more circular, and the cloud tops are quite cold still. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:26, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now a Category 1, forecasting to head towardsHawaii on Thursday. Hurricane Cardozo2 23:49, August 11, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Hilda
YES!!! 100 kts/967 mbar per CPHC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:53, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Likely around 115 knts now. Very impressive and eye is still warming. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:45, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Based on the CPHC's wording, I was a little surprised to see Hilda become a major hurricane. But they just updated their website, and some of you may not believe this - 120 knots (140 mph)/946 mbar (hPa; 27.94 inHg)! Dolores is being challenged for her bronze intensity position. No new advisory or discussion yet, but I am surprised at how far Hilda has come. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:45, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * 120 is supported by sat estimates. FTR, Andres is still the strongest storm of the year at 130 knots/938 mbar. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:52, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Category 4 now. Hilda has exploded!  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:24, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well... talk about shattering a trend of failing! This reminds me somewhat of how Dean in the Atlantic had only reached hurricane strength once prior to 2007, and then we all know what the 2007 incarnation pulled off. Hopefully Hilda won't be nearly as destructive, but with a little luck, we could have our first CPAC Category 5 since Ioke on the horizon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:33, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * This has peaked probably, but boy it has been a fun run. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:04, August 8, 2015 (UTC)

Hilda's eye has been filling up in recent satellite images, this means that Hilda is possibly weakening by the GHWS (Great Hawaiian Wind Shear) <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:08, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's not shear. If it was, the storm's eye would be cloudy but it wouldn't be nearly as vertically stacked. That is not the case. In fact, wind shear is currently 1 knot per SHIPS output, and is forecast to relax to 0 knots in 6-12 hours and will be less than 5 knots through tomorrow. Then the GHS kicks in. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:20, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It probably peaked yesterday, Hilda's now down to 125 mph and will slowly weaken from here on out. Ryan1000 11:25, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hilda's organization indeed seems to have collapsed recently, and its pressure has been raised to 953 mbar (hPa; 28.15 inHg). Although there is a chance the hurricane could rebound once more in the next day or so because of the low shear YE mentioned above, the CPHC does not call for it, and I also think Hilda should not get any stronger than 115 knots before the GHS kicks in and shreds it into oblivion. Motionwise, Hilda is moving alongside the edge of a ridge to its NE, and is forecast to turn more westwards towards the end of the CPHC forecast period. I don't think Hawaii should see anything significant out of Hilda, but the latest CPHC forecast cone contains the Big Island. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:01, August 9, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilda (2nd time)
It has gone down to hurricane strength per the CPHC, with 110 mph winds recorded. It was impressive and awesome that it broke the long streak of being a TS, and completely demolishing that streak by becoming a major! :D Nice one, Hilda, you are an epic win and deserve an award! But now that it's down to hurricane strength, the next thing to worry about is that the CPHC's forecast cone takes the storm down to the Big Island of Hawaii, but only as a weakling by then. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:00, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hilda is my 2nd favorite storm of the year, behind Andres. However, Hilda has continued to degrade on satellite imagery, and its pressure has slightly risen to 964 mbar (hPa; 28.47 inHg). As the hurricane rounds the edge of its steering ridge, it should move more NW due to a lack of steering flow. Moreover, how weak it gets in the next couple of days will make a difference in its motion. If Hilda stays strong, the CPHC notes it may move more northerly due to steering flow. However, if the hurricane rapidly weakens, it may move more westerly due to steering flow. Regardless, Hilda should start weakening more rapidly because of the combination of some 40 knots of shear forecasted by SHIPS from the subtropical jet stream and the GHS, and even if it does reach the Big Island, impacts will be minimal. On a side note, I would like to point out how tiny Hilda is - gale-force winds extend just 90 miles from its center! This will make it very susceptible to even minor environmental changes. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:32, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * For me, it's my 3rd favorite in the EPac this year, behind Andres (that powerful early season guy) and Dolores (the one that brought record July rains to help with our drought). Anyways, parts of Hawaii should prepare for potentially heavy rains and flooding. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 01:59, August 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Heeeeey Hilda! Looks like you deserve a big fat hug from your sister Zelda! :D You were ace, girl.  rarity is best pony 02:35, August 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Regarding the size, the CPHC has been overestimating it per recon as I suspected, and there are almost no gale force winds on the SW side per recon. Intensity guess per what Recon was sampled so far: 95/970. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:45, August 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hilda is currently 90 mph as of the latest advisory. The forecast track still takes it down to the Big Island of Hawaii, so they may get some impacts, but probably not too severe. Zelda, give Hilda a big fat hug before she dies! :O --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:08, August 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * It probably won't reach the islands. Hilda is not very big, it's not moving very fast (only 8 mph to the WNW), and shear will increase to 30-50 knots by tomorrow, which should tear Hilda apart before so much as touching the big island. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I actually think it could still have a chance to touch the islands, but probably only as depression or remnant low. Anyways, it has now weakened to 85 mph. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:02, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * There's a TS watch up for the big island now, if it makes it there it'll only be a weak TS or depression. If it makes landfall there, it'd be the second year in a row with a Hawaii landfall (3rd if you could Flossie's close brush in 2013), but damage won't be too bad if it does so. Ryan1000 18:31, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I agree. Hurricane Cardozo2 23:50, August 11, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilda (2nd time)
downgraded to TS... its getting literally trashed by the GHWS. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane   Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:35, August 12, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF storm #4
ECMWF hints at something in 8 days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Correct me if this isn't the same storm, but this invest is behind Hilda and at 50% for 5 days. Likely to be Ignacio eventually. Ryan1000 21:05, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * I hope we see this become Ignacio. It's got plenty of potential to do so, currently! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:48, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, I may have spoke too soon. It's now down to 20% and is likely to encounter less favorable conditions for development from here on out. Ryan1000 11:25, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Oh... But actually, it still remains similar in organization, and it could still develop in the next couple days before hostile conditions really take over. I think a depression is possible, but unlikely, if it rapidly develops by tomorrow. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:11, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's at 10/10, so it won't develop unless it pulls off an extreme surprise. Ignacio will have to wait. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 02:03, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

Still 10/10. It'll just get ripped apart by more hostile conditions soon. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:11, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

20/20. organizing very quickly. it can be Ignacio at this pace! -<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:30, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Woah, guess what? It's now up to 50/50. I really think it could become a depression now! See, I had this slight feeling about the invest all this time! Ignacio only has a slight shot at happening though, due to the conditions it's about to enter, but if it does become named, it'll epically fail on the scale of Felicia, or maybe even worse. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:51, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * And it went poof. Ugh. 10/10. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:48, August 12, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #3
12z GFS has a storm by day 15, so if this happens, it will be mid-August. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:41, July 26, 2015 (UTC)

I'm not too sure if this is the same system, but it's near Mexico and has a 10/70 chance in the long run. This could be our potential Jimena, unless the rapidly organizing invest above fails to become named. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:57, August 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this was the one in the long-run, it's likely to be a strong storm as it heads out to sea, possibly even a major by next week if it gets lucky. Ryan1000 18:31, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * 20/90. Could become Ignacio, though iffy on how strong. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:47, August 12, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:Middle of Nowhere
I don't know if this is really worth mentioning, but the CPHC is tracking a 0/0 AOI west of Hilda associated with a weak surface trough and a weak upper low. I think this honestly won't develop! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:08, August 11, 2015 (UTC)

I love the title lol. it can slowly develop though. if the circulation of Hilda gets absorbed into it. i'd expect to be quickly named. c'mon we need a 4th named CPac storm! <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane   Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:24, August 12, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado...


 * EPAC
 * Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise.
 * Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager.
 * Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement.
 * Dolores: 0% - It became respectably strong, but if there were any impacts, they were negligible.
 * Enrique: Fail% - Él es el perdedor.
 * Felicia: % - Gets an F-.


 * CPAC
 * Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry)
 * Halola: Currently active
 * Iune: -4% - It failed miserably.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

The Steve has spoken:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))

EPac:


 * Andres:  0%  - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise.


 * Blanca: <font color="#77B">2.5%  - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there.


 * Carlos: <font color="#359">5%  - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country.


 * Dolores:  0%  - It did a nice job at the major part, but impacts, if any, were meager. Baja and SoCal shouldn't get much either.
 * Enrique:  0%  - See you in 2021!
 * Felicia:  0%  - Actually, it deserves lower than an F-. It gets a Z. Yeah, that's right, a Z! What an extreme epic fail that deserves a place in the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing!
 * Guillermo:  0%  - Other than Hawaiian surf, this didn't cause much impacts other than spinning fish out in the middle of the Pacific ocean.
 * Hilda: ? - Still active. Hawaii shouldn't get much, though.

CPac:


 * Ela:  0%  - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin.


 * Halola:  0%  - Also failed to affect land.


 * Iune:  0%  - Never in a million years.

--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Welp, here I go:

Andres: 0% - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh.

Blanca: 3% - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet...

Carlos: 27% - This one has a higher chance at retirement, Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for another "Category 5 hype". Killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. #CarlosPLZ

Dolores: 0.0001% - FAIL... I'm sorry Dolores, Andres is way better looking than you

Enrique: <1% - Wait, wot? Sadly I would've expected a major from a storm named after my middle name.

FAILecia: Fail% - 0 Chances is enough for a name with FAIL in it.

Gullimero - <2% - these storms keep getting more fail-prone every time. Can't wait to see how much of a FAIL Hilda will be (despite that being my sister's name)

CPac Names

Don't really see any retirements yet, until Hawaii's smallest island disappears from storm surge.

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  16:03, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

odile's fun retirement chances with memes

ayy lmao its my turn!

Andres: -50% - meh.

Blanca: -25% - as puffle says above.

Carlos:  carlos plz% 25% -  CARLOS PLZ! AIN'T NOBODY HAS TIME FO' THAT! still. carlos plz. can get a tiny shot at retirement because of the 17 million pesos on luxury yacht damage

Dolores: 15% - caused a lot of flood damage in the San Diego-Tijusna area.

Enrique: NaN% - HAHAHAHAHA will be suprised if it gets retired. just sayin'

F ail elicia: 💩% - [insert poop emoji here]

Guillermo: NaN% - fun to see an hurricane after fails.

Hilda: ???% active

cpac

Ela: NaN% - WORST. STORM. EVER.

Halola: 1.5% - well it was a nearly record-breaking storm. i'll stay here.

Iune: NaN% - wat

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC)

Now it is time for my predictions:


 * 1) Andres - 1% - Andres was a true early surprise, and kudos to it for becoming the westernmost May major. While its remnant moisture did bring unseasonable rainfall to Phoenix and cause some power outages in Colorado, these have not been described as extreme. Therefore, I believe Andres will stay.
 * 2) Blanca - 2% - I am impressed that Blanca was able to become the earliest 2nd EPAC hurricane in general and reach the intensity it did. Its remnants brought some wave action to Puerto Vallarta and caused quite a few power outages. However, most of these were fixed within a day. Also, while SoCal did see some flooding from ex-Blanca, most of the rainfall was beneficial for the infamous drought there. Consequently, Blanca should stay as well.
 * 3) Carlos - 6% - Carlos was a little worse than either Andres or Blanca. It downed some trees and billboards around Acapulco. In addition, it sank the Bellísima luxury yacht and killed someone from falling metal. Nevertheless, most of the flooding was not widespread, and there do not seem to be extreme destruction reports from Carlos. As a result, the $1.1 million (2015 USD) price tag should not be enough for retirement.
 * 4) Ela - 0% - It was cool to see the CPAC come alive in the middle of July. But Ela did zilch to land, so you know the drill.
 * 5) Halola - TBA - Still Active
 * 6) Iune - 0% - Aside from being the earliest 3rd named CPAC storm, what did Iune do?
 * 7) Dolores - 1% - Like Andres, it was amazing to see Dolores unexpectedly become a Category 4 so quickly. Most of its impacts so far have been from its associated moisture and not the storm itself. Sure, SoCal saw some incredible rainfall (namely LA and San Diego!) from this that was "historic", but most of the precipitation will be beneficial for the area. As a matter of fact, a persistent wildfire in Cajon Pass was exhausted because of ex-Dolores's moisture. So, Dolores, you are staying put, too.
 * 8) Enrique - 0% - Enrique did surprise me with his persistence against his environment, and even became a tropical storm for a second time. But while Iglesias may have stolen Frank (1992)'s 8th storm ribbon, he did not harm land in the process.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:05, July 22, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan Grand is back:

EPac: CPac: There you go. Ryan1000 20:39, July 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres - 0% - Became pretty strong for such an early-season storm, but it caused no direct damage on land, so it won't be retired.
 * Blanca - 3% - Earliest 2nd (major) hurricane of any EPac season on record, and also the earliest Baja California landfall as well, but overall damage wasn't too severe; if anything the rainfall from it's remnants helped ease up California's drought a little.
 * Carlos - 5% - Slightly worse than Blanca, and Mexico was fortunate Carlos didn't get past category 1 strength as it neared the coastline, but this was no Manuel. It was modest at most, and will be coming back again in 2021.
 * Dolores - 0% - Slightly weaker than Andres, and als a bit farther east, but overall impacts from surf were minor at most.
 * Enrique - 0% - Fail, but at least he didn't fail as bad as Failicia.
 * Failicia - Pun% - << See the name.
 * Guillermo - 0% - Steered well clear of Hawaii, with no known damage or deaths.
 * Hilda - ?? - First hurricane Hilda ever recorded in the EPac, but chances of retirement all depend on if this hits Hawaii or not.
 * Ela - 0% - Nice early start for the CPac, but nothing to speak of regarding impacts.
 * Halola - 2% - Caused 1.2 million in crop damage to southern Japan with no deaths. It was a modest storm at most, and it likely won't be retired.
 * Iune - 0% - See Ela.