Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future start
Coming in slightly more than one month :D.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Betting pools
Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC)

November
Looks like the season is truly over; oh how I DETEST this season! It was going to be a grand one but thanks to atmospheric conditions it looks like we will NEVER EVER EVER get a decent hurricane going. For God's sake, WHAT IS GOING ON?! It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:51, October 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * For crying out loud, IT'S ALMOST NOVEMBER. (Happy Halloween woooo!!! XD) We haven't had a major this year at all. It is IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A FREAKING DECENT HURRICANE in the Atlantic right now (strong but stays out to sea.) Looks like we are in a hurricane ice age AFAIK. God!  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:54, October 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * The models were showing a couple storms within the next couple weeks, but they have been dropped. UGH! -bashes head in computer- FOR CELESTIA'S SAKE JUST DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT! And don't tell me to wait till 2014, this year's naming list was so cool. It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:57, October 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Liz, it may be November, but that does not mean the Atlantic will be any less destructive. Even inactive seasons can produce freak Novembers. For instance, 1994 was in the same shoes 2013 was. Only five tropical storms, one (Chris) which became a hurricane, had formed by the end of October. But that November turned the season upside down. First came Florence, which nearly became a major over the open Atlantic, then Gordon, which was terror for Haiti. In addition, 1956 hurled out this November surprise, Greta. Several late season surprises (Michelle, Paloma, Kate, and Lenny) have come before, and who knows? Maybe 2013 will have a raviging Melissa or Nestor! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:10, November 1, 2013 (UTC)

I agree that there is a slight chance of us seeing a powerful storm in November, but statistically speaking nearly 19 out of every 20 storms that have ever formed in the Atlantic have formed before this time of year. Furthermore, the only storms in history to ever form in November and become major hurricanes were the 1912 Jamaica Hurricane, Kate of 1985, Lenny of 1999 and Paloma of 2008, the other November majors were crossovers from October. Oh and, recap from October:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN DURING OCTOBER WAS NEAR NORMAL IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...BUT BELOW NORMAL WITH RESPECT TO THE NUMBER OF HURRICANES. TWO TROPICAL STORMS FORMED IN THE BASIN DURING OCTOBER...BUT NEITHER REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH. BASED ON A 30-YEAR (1981-2010) CLIMATOLOGY... TWO NAMED STORMS FORM ON AVERAGE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN IN OCTOBER... WITH ONE BECOMING A HURRICANE. A MAJOR HURRICANE FORMS IN THE BASIN IN OCTOBER ABOUT ONCE EVERY OTHER YEAR.

FOR THE SEASON OVERALL AS OF THE END OF OCTOBER...THE 12 NAMED STORMS IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE VALUE OF 11...BUT THE 2 HURRICANES TO DATE IS WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE OF 5.8. ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR HURRICANES THUS FAR IN 2013...WELL BELOW THE AVERAGE OF 2.6. IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER WAS ABOUT 70 PERCENT BELOW THE 1981-2010 AVERAGE.

The Atlantic would have to have a miracle in November to break even with ACE. None of the reliable models predict any serious development in the next week, and NHC doesn't expect anything in the next 5 days. There is a slight chance we could get another storm in mid to late November, but with the way this season has gone, it wouldn't surprise me if we get nothing at all through the remainder of the season. Ryan1000 23:36, November 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, the Atlantic has been extremely pathetic this season. This season's ACE is absolutely horrible! I don't think we will pull a 1994 November, but anything could happen. In fact, we might get nothing at all during the rest of the season. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 01:34, November 2, 2013 (UTC)

AOI.South of Hispaniola
Atlantic's not completely dead I guess. This little guy is at 10% south of Hispaniola. It will drift into the Western Caribbean over the next few days, still under generally unfavorable conditions. Ryan1000 12:50, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Melissa anyone? Yeah, not gonna happen. This AOI will just die out without becoming tropical, and I don't think the Atlantic will get anymore storms during the rest of the season. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 19:29, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * I agree with Steven. This AOI is going to deal with a truckload of dry air and wind shear. I doubt it will develop. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:46, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * AAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!! GET THE BUNNIES! THEY'LL MAKE MELISSA FORM! AAAAHHHH!!! WHAT is going on? And what on EARTH is that thing in Western Africa? A tropical wave? AAAAHHHHH!!!   It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 21:48, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Liz, the "thing" near Western Africa is a low-pressure vortex; they tend to be common near Morocco. I doubt it will become tropical because only two tropical cyclones to my knowledge have developed near that area, Vince '05 and Delta '05. The bunnies can try, but poor Melissa may need to wait for six more years. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:13, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * AAAAAHHHH! VORTEX! AAAHHH! IMMA GET SUCKED INSIDE IT!! AHHH! The bunnies, though, are SUPER RAINBOW SPARKLER BUNNIES that work for Princess Celestia, and they WILL MAKE MELISSA AND NESTOR THE DONKEY FORM! Stop Snapchatting, bunnies, AND GET TO WORK!  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:18, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * -gives Melissa milk bottle- That might make Mel strengthen up so she can become big and strong.  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 22:20, November 3, 2013 (UTC)

Farewell
It won't hurt to start this early :P -- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:33, October 31, 2013 (UTC)

Farewell? WHAT farewell? -_-  It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 23:45, October 31, 2013 (UTC)

Oh wait, never mind. Looks like the next 2013 storm won't come after all. It's not about forcing happiness. It's about not letting the sadness win. 23:49, October 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * We still have one month of hurricane season left, but we'd need a miracle to cover up the ACE hole we're in right now. The number of hurricanes the Atlantic had so far this season is the lowest number of hurricanes for any Atlantic hurricane season since there were none in 1914, although tied with 1982. Even so, that year was an El Nino year, while this season was neutral. There were also no major hurricanes this season, the first time since 1994 and the first time it ever happened in a non-El Nino year, as 1994, 1986, 1972, and 1968 were all El Nino years. There is a very slight chance we could have a big storm in November, but statistically speaking 94% of all tropical cyclones that have ever formed in the Atlantic have formed before this time of year, and with the way this year has gone, I highly doubt that will happen. We'd need a miracle in November to avoid those records this year, and given the current outlooks from the global models, it's not looking promising the Atlantic will get anything for the rest of the season. Ryan1000 00:07, November 1, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We have enough storms in this season to start this section (four), but nothing is worth retiring so far.

My predictions:

Andrea - 1% - It affected a variety of regions, but it is not going.

Barry - 0.5% - If Arlene (2011) was not retired for affecting the same regions as Barry did, it is not going as well.

Chantal - 0.1% - One death does not cut it in this case.

Dorian - 0% - It regenerated after everyone said it was done, but I doubt it will go.

Erin - 0.05% - There was some rain in the Cape Verdes, but if Fran (1984) was not retired for affecting Cape Verde, neither will Erin.

Fernand - 0.8% -The flood threats from Fernand, along with eighteen fatalities, make Fernand the season's deadliest storm, but it is extremely doubtful it will go.

Gabrielle - 0.1% - Some slight effects occured in Hispaniola, but it otherwise fell flat on its face. However, it did redeem itself.

Humberto - 0.01% - Humberto did break our TS streak. However, it is staying, despite minor effects on Cape Verde.

Ingrid - 10% - Ingrid does have a better chance than some of you think. It flooded up northeastern Mexico, and it is deadlier than Kenna and Anita, both of which got retired for primarily affecting Mexico. Depending on damage totals, my percentage should go up or down.

Jerry - 0% - Was nothing more than an epic fail.

Karen - 0.01% - Karen was slightly better than Jerry, but still, no way.

Lorenzo - 0% - An even worse fail than Jerry.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

STO12's Predictions


 * ANDREA: 20% Caused some impact to Florida and the southeast, but not significant enough for a retirement.
 * BARRY: 15% Torrential rains in Central America, but not enough impact to sustain a retirement.
 * CHANTAL: 5% Caused very little impact to the windward islands, no retirement for Chantal.
 * DORIAN: 5% No impact to land as a tropical storm. It's remnants and regenerated tropical depression status did more.
 * ERIN: 0% No impact to land.
 * FERNAND ? Predictions for Fernand will be released once the storm has dissipated.

ST✪12 02:02, August 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * But what about its remnants? Wouldn't the remains of Dorian have a possibility to cause at least some impact/damage? Jeffrey1998 (talk) 04:16, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, Dorian's remnants have a 10% chance of coming back. He still has a chance to do something. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * You honestly think Dorian is going to regenerate? I don't and it's at 0% right now, so I was correct. Dorian was a fail to me, its remnants didn't do anything big. -.- ST✪12 23:11, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I said that two days ago, when it had a chance of regenerating. But now, he's dead. Dorian never did jack sh!t. Ryan1000 03:23, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Here's my predictions:

Steven09876 T 16:00, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 5% - Caused some impact to the southeast, but too little impact for retirement.
 * Barry - 1% - Affected Mexico, but it will not be retired.
 * Chantal - 0.1% - Caused very little impact.
 * Dorian - 0% - Fail, but surprised us by regenerating after everyone thought it was done.
 * Erin - 0% - See Jerry.
 * Fernand - 10% - I never expected it to be as bad as this. It killed 18 people. But still, since Mexico rarely retires names, I don't think it is going.
 * Gabrielle - 1% - Not much impact.
 * Humberto - 0% - It became the season's first hurricane, but no land impacts, so no retirement here.
 * Ingrid - 15% - Lots of flooding in Mexico and 19 deaths, but considering Mexico's track record...
 * Jerry - 0% - EPIC FAIL!!!
 * Karen - 0% - Kinda better than Jerry, but still, it EPICLY failed. It just fell flat on its face in the Gulf of Mexico! Along with Jerry and Erin, it gets the biggest fail of the year award. This shall explain how much Karen, Jerry, and Erin EPICLY FAILED!
 * Lorenzo - 0% - This is yet ANOTHER EPIC FAIL! Enough of the piece of sh!t failures.

RyanK is here: That's all for now. Ryan1000 16:19, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea - 2% - Not much different from Alberto '06. Caused some flooding, but nothing severe.
 * Barry - 2% - Just like Bret '05. Some damage, some deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough.
 * Chantal - 1% - I was really hoping to see more from Chantal, but it fell flat on it's face in the open Caribbean...Still, tack a 1% on it for the death in the Dominican Republic.
 * Dorian - 0% - It tried, but failed.
 * Erin - 0% - What a disgrace.
 * Fernand - 8% - Worse than Barry, but still not retirement-worthy.
 * Gabrielle - 0% - What a dissapointing storm...yeah it came back but still, it was weak and caused no damage or deaths.
 * Humberto - <5% - Still active, but probably won't affect land.
 * Ingrid - 60% - Actually, scratch what I said before, this was pretty destructive. With 1.5 billion in damage and 23 deaths, we have a decent retirement canidate here. I don't care what Mexico says, I had no idea Ingrid was that bad. Do I think it will be retired? No, but those are definitely considerable numbers.
 * Jerry - 0% - Another fish, another failure...
 * Karen - -1% - I've seen storms fail before, but can they really fail this badly? Dafaq...

'''THIS... IS... SPARTA!!!!''' I LIKE TRAINS 23:32, September 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea = 5%. She did cause a bit of hype along the northeast but her impacts were not life-threatening, just too petty.
 * Barry "INNIT MAN" = 1%. That name did give me the creeps when I first saw it on the list but he is nothing more than a candidate for 2019's hurricane list.
 * Chantal >:) = 0%. That was absolutely dreadful.
 * Dorian Gray = -∞%. What the bloody hell was that? 
 * Erin = -∞%. FACEHOOF. EPIC FAIL. BOOOOOOOOO!!!!! Cape Verde will not do this, they didn't feel a THING from this shy kid!
 * Fernand= 5%. I just ate my free Nando's. Mexico, no way. This ain't going ANYWHERE.
 * Gabby = 2% OMG the second life, shadow of the dead! Canada didn't feel a thing.
 * Humberto the boss :) = 3% I LIKE TRAINS AND MINE TURTLES, THIS ONE PRODUCED A MASSIVE SHINY DOUGHNUT :O D'OH! (Iceland won't do it. Neither will Africa. I got the remnants from Humberto but he provided me with warm late summer weather earler this week. It was true, look up on ITV Weather.)
 * Ingrid = 38% Outshined by Manuel. Manuel was too evil.
 * Jerry "N00b" Springmouse = -93%. n00b. this n00b ain't going anywhere. superglued to the hurricane list for good. n00b
 * DAT KAREN = -27%. YOU PINKIE PROMISED!!!!!!!!1111
 * Lorenzo = NO%. All the ponies in Equestria are now crying. Please just donate £2 to the Royal Pony Safe Trust and you can make a difference. Thank you.

I thought I had done my already anyways.

Andrea:3% believe it or not she has been one of the most interesting so far but anyways just left some rains and three deaths. Retirement is out of the question.

Barry:2% Knowing Mexico for sure will not recommend this fail for retirement.They don`t even retire big hurricanes like Karl then this one is going to stay,I am pretty sure no ones remember a TS Barry in Mexico.

Chantal :1% Another system that sucumbs to the trade winds in the Ecab.Fail

Dorian: 1% and the parade of fail continues that 1% is just because he regenerate when the majority didn`t thought he will.

Erin:1%Did I really need to comment? It affect the Cape verde but if Fran in 1984 which I believe has been the most damaging and deadliest storm there which caused at least 32 deaths wasn`t retire then this one for sure will not for just rain

Fernand: 8% Not a fail but nothing that Mexico haven`t seen before

Gabrielle 1% She is finally out, that percent is for slight flooding in the virgin islands  and PR

Humberto 1% Our first hurricane and some rain to the cape verde islands but nothing more.His second life was a bust.

Ingrid: 10% I would love to give her a little more but she was not as bad as predict an Manuel is describe as being worse than her by Mexico news.So she is not going sorry.Manuel really put her at nothing now.

Jerry 0% Better than I imagine but still a fish and  a ts

Karen 0% Biggest troll of the season,she play with a lot of bloggers emotions,what she did was inexcusable.

Lorenzo 0% As a fail it comes as a fail it goes.Pathetic!

.Allanjeffs 21:56, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

We don't have anything that stands a chance of retirement so far, but I'll put mine in anyway:
 * Andrea: 4% - Caused some hype along the US East Coast, but the impacts weren't all that much. Basically what Liz said.
 * Barry: 2% - It killed 3 people, but considering the fact that those deaths were in the ever-conservative Mexico, retirement isn't happening.
 * Chantal: 1% - 1 death in the Dominican Republic, and it was very blustery in Saint Lucia. Blown to pieces before it could do much else.
 * Dorian: 0% - It impressed us by regenerating after being dead for a week, but it had no impacts on land, so no.
 * Erin: 0% - A bit of rain in Cape Verde, and zilch after that.
 * Fernand: 10% - Barry Plus. I did not expect as many as 13 people to die from this thing (the 5 in Honduras were from the precursor wave, so I'm not sure if they count), but if Arlene '11 didn't go, then neither will Fernand.
 * Gabrielle: 0% 3% - A waste of tropical energy.
 * Managed to regenerate and it's more impressive now than it ever was. We'll see what happens, but it shouldn't be too bad in Bermuda.
 * Cool to watch in its second life. Minimal impact in Bermuda, but I heard that flooding was apparently severe in the Virgin Islands. No damage or fatality figures as of now, though.


 * Humberto: 0% - We got our first hurricane out of Humby, but as far as effects on land go, it was nothing more than a re-Erin for Cape Verde.
 * Ingrid: 15% 55% - Worse than Fernand, but still not bad enough to warrant retirement . Manuel royally outshined Ingrid.
 * That $1.5 billion damage estimate is shockingly high. If Alex didn't get the boot for a greater damage bill and more than twice as many fatalities (Ingrid's 23-34 vs. Alex's 51-73), then it might not be wise to pin Ingrid's odds too high, but, as Ryan said above, the numbers more than qualify.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:21, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Jerry: 0% - *facepalm*
 * Karen: 0% - Wanna hear a joke?
 * Lorenzo: 0% - Lawl.

Btw I discover that the Cape verdes are not a member in the group that represents the Atlantic basin that is why maybe Fran was not retire.I imagine that even if a storm affects Africa it will not be retire as they are not members of the same region.Allanjeffs 18:34, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Very interesting, Allan. This would also explain why Beryl '82 and Delta '05 were not retired. They both affected the Cape Verdes/Canaries to a considerable extent, too. (I don't care if Delta was a Greek letter name, it should have been retired!) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:11, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, maybe in the future if a hurricane causes enough damage somehwere in Africa or in southern Europe (1842 Spain Hurricane), maybe the WMO could consider those countries for the North Atlantic group in the future. Andrew, as far as I know, the WMO discussed the naming lists in detail after 2005. Had the unnamed Azores subtropical storm been discovered operationally everything would've been pushed back 1 name, Wilma would've been Alpha, and we would've ended at Eta. The WMO said if a greek-named hurricane causes enough damage to warrant retirement, the name will be retired, but instead of being replaced with any particular name, the next time a hurricane season reaches the greek alphabet, the retired greek name will be skipped and the next one will be used instead (I.E. Alpha,  Beta, Gamma, if Beta becomes retired). No greek names in 2005 were retired, though Beta could've gotten a lot stronger if it remained offshore Nicaragua longer. I doubt we'll see any hurricane season in the near future that will go as far down the list as 2005 did, but with the way this active cycle has gone, anything is possible. Ryan1000 02:34, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Gamma shouldn`t have been retire because damaga was not enough and if one of them should had been retire would have been 2005 as it was the deadliest of all the Greek letters.Allanjeffs 05:04, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * You mean Gamma? And look at this and tell me damage wasn't severe. 19 people died and Delta wrought $364 million in damage. Considering all the destruction was on the Canary Islands, that's pretty bad. I'm not sure if it would've been retired if the Canary Islands were part of the WMO group that represents the Atlantic basin, but still. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:36, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm don't think Spain is part of the WMO's list of countries in the North Atlantic, but if it is, or was, they sure would've retired Delta if they had the chance. The only disasters the Canary Islands see that are worse than rare storms like Delta are eruptions from the volcanoes on the islands (uncommon) or massive earthquakes/tsunamis from the Azores-Gibraltar Transform Fault that caused the great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 (extremely rare). But 19 deaths and 364 million in damage are definitely retirement-worthy numbers, especially for them. Ryan1000 15:23, August 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Thanks Dylan yes it was Gamma,and Spain is not part of the region only NAmer Central America and the Caribbean islands too.I believe Colombia may be but not remember I will ask my friend to give me the page again of the members,But the WMO can still ask for retirement if the country doesn`t ask that is the rule.I am not sure why they never ask for Gordon or Hanna though.Allanjeffs 21:18, August 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Gordon was not retired because Haiti, for some unknown (and possibly unexcusable) reason, did not send a delegate to the WMO retirement conference. I assume Hanna stayed for the same reason. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:26, August 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * In 1994 Haiti was suffering a civil war one of the worst of the country I imagine that is the prime reason as no one was interested in that kind of things in a period like that,Not sure with Hanna,and like I say if the country delegate don`t ask for retirement member of the WMO might.Allanjeffs 21:41, August 27, 2013 (UTC)

Well, even if Spain isn't part of the list of countries in the WMO, I bet that they could nominate a name if they so wished to. But the main areas are North America, Central America, the Caribbean, or, in the case of Fabian, Bermuda. If a big hurricane hits Spain/Portugal in the future I bet they could nominate it, but it's highly unlikely and they're in a pretty tight economic situation anyways. Asking for a hurricane name to be retired isn't likely something they would ask for. Ryan1000 22:25, August 27, 2013 (UTC)

My bets: -- Isaac829 E-Mail  22:17, October 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * All - 0% - *Presses button for failhorn*. I don't think anything could change my bet now.

Pretty much this. ^ Ryan1000 22:12, September 5, 2013 (UTC)

my turn

everything: 0%

leeboy100 (talk) 18:44, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

Simlover has spoken: Simlover123    01:07, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Fernand, and Gabrielle: 5% - Caused damage of some sort, but not enough whatsoever.
 * Ingrid: 20% - Even though Ingrid was worse than Fernand, Manuel beat her up in the end.
 * Everything else: 0% - Lots of fails.

I hope it isn't pretentious for me to place my estimates, as low as they may be, given my somewhat inactive and very new standing here on the wiki. Ah well, here we go anyway! Note: Percentages don't include non-damage based retirement probabilities, such as for political or other reasons for retirement (as has occurred in the East Pacific)

Andrea: 0%. Despite its early-season landfall and 4 deaths, we'll see Andrea again in 2019.

Barry: <1%. Damage and deaths in Central America and Mexico, but they've seen oh so much worse.

Chantal: 0%. Barely even existed, and impacts hardly worth mentioning.

Dorian: 0%. Bonus points for regenerating and lasting longer than most this year, but Dean's replacement is gonna be on the 2019 list.

Erin: 0%. Possibly THE most pitiful storm of the year, but it has stiff competition for that title in this boring year.

Fernand: <1%. Tropical Storm Barry Two: Barry Harder, coming to theatres Summer 2013! Death toll nowhere near high enough for Mexico to ask for retirement, but still second deadliest of the season.

Gabrielle: 0%. Well hey, she tried. More than I can say for several other storms this year. But no damage means no retirement. See ya in six years, Gabby.

Humberto: 0%. Ended our dreadful no-hurricane streak, but a pretty pitiful hurricane by the standards of any other year but this one. No retirement for this storm whose name always amuses me.

Ingrid: 15%. Incredibly, our worst storm of the season, unless something happens in November. I get the feeling that Manuel will get the blame for most of the deaths and damage, and given Mexico's track record with retirement, I doubt that Ingrid is going anywhere, though it has an outside shot. But at least the 'I' named storm was a hurricane this year again. Unless the final damage and death toll is several times higher than it is currently, Ingrid stays - and even if it does wind up costing a lot or causing tons of deaths, I doubt it's going... see Karl and Matthew, 2010.

Jerry: 0%. Along with Erin and Karen, biggest failure of the year.

Karen: -3.9%. ... I don't even think you tried.

Lorenzo: 0%. Still active, but... yeah, sorry, 2013's not gonna let you do anything worth retiring.

So yeah. In some alternate universe somewhere similar to ours, Ingrid may be briefly thought of by some met at the WMO meeting, but I doubt he/she will speak up, or it'll come out as 'Manuel' rather than 'Ingrid'. We'll more than likely join 2009 and 2006 as having the exact same name list again in six years, as nothing warrants retirement in the Atlantic this season. TheMagnificentEquusStorm (talk) 15:30, October 22, 2013 (UTC)

Ingrid may have a small shot but I still doubt it.The damage right now is 1.5 billion dollars in damage I believe some damage of Manuel was estimate in Ingrid so that might be the reason is so high.but oh well I believe only Manuel is going but with the snoobs Mexico have done there is a possibility he is staying.Allanjeffs 16:39, October 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ingrid's damage might have been too high or too low, but it's the best shot at anything being retired thus far for the Atlantic. Ryan1000 20:11, October 25, 2013 (UTC)

Mid-season predictions
This is the time of the season when CSU and NOAA issue their mid-season forecasts for the remainder of the season. To concide with their recent predictions, I will release my personal mid-season predictions in this section. If anyone else would like to have a say in the activity for the rest of this Atlantic hurricane season, please feel free to post it here.

For the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season, I predict:

16 named storms (Pablo), 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 155.

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season has had a very weak start. Although we have had four tropical storms, none of them have been strong or destructive. My previous prediction called for 21 named storms, 13 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricane. However, this forecast assumed June and July would be hectic. In reality, these two months were pathetic. A good analouge for this season, in my opinion, would be 2003, 2007, or 2010. All three of these seasons had sluggish June-Augusts, but then imploded in September. 2013 is poised to do the same. Also, I think we could see a re-Isabel or re-Ivan this season. In addition, it should be noted both 2003 and 2007 had a power outage of strong storms. 2007 had plenty of storms (fifteen), but only one storm (Dean) lasted longer than a week. 2003 had three impressive major hurricanes (Fabian, Isabel, and Kate), but was otherwise a dud season, minus Juan. I think 2013 will also be devoid of many strong system. This is why my forecast calls for a truckload of storms, but a disproportionate amount of hurricanes.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:18, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew 2013 has been extremely active.It already has 4 name storms.2010 have Danielle until August 21 so give it a chance.I believe we are going to get between 16 to 17 names storms 8 to 9 hurricanes and 4 to 5 majors.Allanjeffs 19:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think we'll get a very active season this year; my predictions in my blog could actually be lackluster, I wouldn't be surprised if we get an explosion of activity in late August and September and possibly even run the table this year. I'm predicting a total of 18-21 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 majors. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Don't lose hope for this year just yet. Ryan1000 19:20, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'll throw my hat in the ring and predict 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:00, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm thinking 11 named storms, 3 (or 4) hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. This is looking like a near-average to inactive season. Steven09876 T 02:29, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Steven, I think you are seriously underestimating the potential future activity for this season. The only reason we have not gone bonkers like 2005 or 2008 yet is because the SAL is keeping all these tropical waves in check. However, today, the SAL will depart the Atlantic for good, and from here on out, we could see a mega-explosion in activity. 1967, 1977, 1984, 1988, and 2001 had no hurricanes yet by this time in the season, yet all of them ended with at least five (1967 had six and 2001 had nine). 1961 had a record-dead August, but once September came, the Atlantic went nuts with five tropical storms, four of which (Betsy-Esther) ultimately became major hurricanes, and then had two major hurricanes form in October (Frances and Hattie). 1964 also went crazy after August (five major hurricanes formed after September 1!!!). The truth is, we actually have a long way to go, and now is not the time to write off the season. I now think 16 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes will be our final tally. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:52, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alright, I'm now thinking 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Looks like the Atlantic might explode in September after all. But still, this season will be nowhere near the activity of 2010, 2011, and 2012. Steven09876 T 03:13, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this season isn't over yet. The Saharan Air Layer is starting to die down and the MJO will peak over the next two weeks. SST's are still above-normal for the Atlantic, and conditions are ripe for an explosion of activity to occur from here until say, late October. The two AOIs (one in the Central Atlantic, the other over Africa) have unfavorable conditions for now, but they could move into more favorable conditions later on. The Atlantic is far from dead; if you ask me it's just sleeping for now. But when it wakes up, it'll take off. Ryan1000 13:33, August 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Because of the heavy shear and lack of the season to get on with it, I am downgrading my prediction to 14 total storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, and an ACE of 60. Unless we pull a 2001 explosion of activity, we are doomed. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:37, September 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised the Atlantic has been so lackluster in activity...the SAL and wind shear are more persistent than I (and many climate experts + NHC) thought they'd be. Ryan1000 15:03, September 6, 2013 (UTC)

I now predict that we will end at 12-11-2-0. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:11, September 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * FWIW, judging from the TCRs of Andrea, Dorian, and Erin, and the ATCF files of every other tropical storm, we currently have an ACE of 28.81. Slightly higher than I thought, but still absolutely pathetic. For comparison, last year's Nadine managed an ACE of 26.34 all by itself. Were the season's current ACE champ, Humberto, a storm in last year's AHS, it would rank in sixth behind Nadine, Michael, Leslie, Sandy, and Isaac, and less than half a point ahead of Gordon and Ernesto. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:34, October 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * LOL, Humberto thinks it's 2012. LOL. Pinkie pie eg sigpic.png Rubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 22:07, October 7, 2013 (UTC)

Well, at least that is better than compared to 2004's storms. For comparison, Ivan (70.38), Frances (45.92) and Karl (28.4375) both generated higher ACEs than this entire season! In addition, Jeanne whipped 24.235 units of ACE by herself!! If Humberto was a storm in 2004, he would be bowing down to Ivan, Frances, Karl, Jeanne, Danielle, Lisa, Alex, and Charley! That is over 50% of all of 2004's storms. Now that illustrates how pathetic this season has been! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:02, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * 2004 was 6th in the top 10 highest ACE of any season, despite the fact an El Nino formed that year, so El Nino years don't always guarantee quiet seasons. That's something to watch out for next year. Also, 2004 was one of the costliest seasons ever, and the costliest on record at the time (2005 and 2012 have surpassed it since then, and 2008 came agonizingly close). Storms with high ACEs are amazing to watch, but also very sadening when they wreck entire countries, as some of the storms in 2004 did. Ryan1000 12:33, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ryan 2004 was a Modiki el Niño and they are typycally as active as a Neutral year or even la Niña.2006 and 2009 instead were El Niño years and 1997 was a super El Niño.Allanjeffs 22:59, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * GUESS WUT.
 * If there is that "Very Very Very Cyclonic Storm" in India right now, then there MIGHT BE A BIG FAT cane comming in da Atlantik!! Might happen with Oktaiv in da Paciffik! Woooot!! XD Pinkie pie eg sigpic.png Rubber bands last longer when they are refrigerated. 23:06, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * My point was, El Nino year ≠  negligible year. We've had quite a few El Nino years before, aside from 2004, that were memorable years. 1972 was a very strong El Nino year -- so strong it had no major hurricanes, but Hurricane Agnes was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history at the time, and one of the deadliest as well. 1983 was a very strong El Nino also but Alicia was one of the costliest hurricanes on record at the time. 1992 and 1994 were also fairly powerful El Nino years but Hurricanes Andrew and Gordon, respectively, made those years quite memorable too. It's unlikely next year will be very active due to the expected El Nino by then, but that doesn't mean it won't be, and even if it's not very active with regards to ACE or named storms, it'll still be memorable if we get a big storm. While some El Nino years (like the ones you mentioned) are easily forgotten seasons, others can produce some of the biggest, most notable, storms ever. Ryan1000 22:21, October 11, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
This could've begun a little sooner, but Andrea's TCR was released on the 22nd, 8 days ago. Not much has changed, winds are still 65 mph (55 knots), and it caused around 25 million in insured losses and 1 direct death in NC, 3 indirect ones from traffic accidents. Anyone have opinions on what will happen post-season? I think there might have been a storm in the Atlantic in June earlier from what was 92L on June 6, if not a storm a brief depression. Ryan1000 19:40, August 30, 2013 (UTC)

I could see a slight change in damages for Barry, and a slight intensity upgrade for Fernand and Dorian's second life. And I doubt Invest 92L will be classified. I do not know whether or not it had a closed circulation. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:23, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Supposedly Ascat or oscat show a close circulation might be upgrade but it might not like 92L in 2010 which it wasn`t.Allanjeffs 00:56, September 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dorian and Erin are out. Dorian's pressure was raised slightly to 1002 mbar, and Erin's winds were given a bump to 40 kts. The recent TCR releases increase Dorian's ACE to 2.5725, and Erin's to 1.545. Still pathetic, but not quite as much as initially thought. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:52, October 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Chantal is out,she was the fastest moving tropical cyclone in the deep tropics with 28knots south of 20N since the satellite era her winds are up 65mph,and she had a minium pressure of 1003.4 are already out look like the poll for the last TCR will not be done this year.Allanjeffs 03:14, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Allan, Chantal's winds were estimated at 65 mph operationally as well, so no change there. The pressure is a slight decrease from the operational estimate of 1005 mbar, though. With four out of eleven TCRs already out, I think we should bend the rules and open the TCR betting pool early this year. Anyone agree? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:20, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Thanks Dylan sorry I am so overcharge with projects I didn`t even remember about her winds.Sorry.I agree do it before all is done.Allanjeffs 03:39, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * No worries. I'll ping Ryan about it now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:54, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * There is still a chance we could see a few more storms through the rest of October (3 more weeks, possibly a notable storm or two as well), but if we don't see much by the end of October, we can open the TCR predictions in the betting pools by November 1st, a month before what I said back in december 2011 with Washi. Ryan1000 17:24, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Barry TCR is out.Not sure if they were any changes,but winds are the same.We need 7 more.Allanjeffs 20:21, October 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nothing's new with him, but we still might get a storm or two in October (still keeping a wary eye on 98L as it heads west). Again, if we get nothing big, we can start it by November, assuming we still have a few left by then. Ryan1000 22:06, October 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * (edit conflict) Allan, Barry's ACE has been raised from 0.565 to 0.7625. It is a small change, but still. Our ACE is now at 28.2175, which is still incredibly pathetic (as I described above three storms from the 2004 AHS alone generated a higher ACE than this entire season (Ivan, Frances, and Karl)!) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:09, October 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Don't really give one on the TCRs except Humberto. Just waiting if they will improve this swaggalicious storm. Miley sigpic.jpg TWERK TEAM! 19:47, October 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * We have 6 out now (Fernand and Andrea new). Eh, I've changed my mind on the TCR's. Now that we have only 5 left, I think it would be best to begin it now. None of the reliable models show development in the next week, nor do conditions seem to favor it. We might still get one more storm, but I doubt we'll pull a Sandy this year. Ryan1000 19:46, October 15, 2013 (UTC)