Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We have one for the EPac, so why not the Atlantic? Betting pools are here. I'll make my worldwide calls later on. Ryan1000 21:20, November 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * I really want more from this upcoming season; 2014 was a good start. I predict...18 total depressions, 16 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, all with an ACE of ~194 units. Also, I want this season to be dead quiet at first before becoming a nightmare season. See more information here... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, November 28, 2014 (UTC)

It's ALMOST THE NEW YEAR!!!! :D well, it is in Australia.... rarity is worst pony 19:21, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 1 - present)
I thought this was a better title, putting the date of my first post at the beginning, and when the wave dissipates, the "present" will be replaced by the date it dissipated. Anyway, this wave has quite a bit of convection, and is in the Cape Verde area extending from 12N26W to 17N25W. It probably emerged off of Africa a couple days ago.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:02, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * This will probably end up being Larry, as long as 90L becomes Kate. Owen 01:50, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Near Cape Verde
Could be something in the long run, but upper-level winds are hostile currently. Has popped up at 0/20 on the TWO.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:18, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Development is only expected to occur slowly since environmental conditions are not particularly favorable. Still 0/20.......  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:24, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 10/30 now, if it forms this will be Kate instead because the other system was an 80% bust. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:47, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * 10/20. I swear that Joaquin existing is scaring other systems out of developing, lol. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:19, October 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * And now it's down to 0/20. I still think development is possible by late this week to next week, most likely next week. And lol, Joaquin is down to C1 strength, so I don't think it would be freaking out other systems much anymore, compared to earlier. :P  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:24, October 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * It seems that if this develops, it might be 5-6 days from now. Hopefully it isn't anything like Joaquin at all. However, I don't think this has potential to become a C4. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:03, October 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO, but the wave is still active and nearing the Windwards.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:28, October 8, 2015 (UTC)

The wave is now currently located in the eastern Caribbean, on 65W. It may be off the TWO, but I wouldn't lose all hope for this wave yet. It could become something later on, maybe in the EPac. These waves are the only thing keeping me occupied with Atlantic tropical weather, as Joaquin has dissipated and there aren't any other AOIs around.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:30, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think it just ate the wave behind it. This wave here is further into the Caribbean, and now extending from 19N69W to 12N69W. I see plenty of moisture in the area, and it could finally become something once it enters the EPac. That's just my prediction, since I really don't think it'll develop in this basin anymore.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:55, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * It would be awesome if we could get an EPAC category 5 from this wave eventually. Of course, that's just dreaming. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:32, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it would be absolutely epic to witness a Category 5 from the wave sometime in the future. I really hope it becomes at least something in the EPac!  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:42, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now it extends from 11N73W to 19N71W and is in the Central Caribbean.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:29, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is beginning to enter the western Caribbean now, and the axis is extending into Jamaica. In the long term, the wave could develop into something in the EPac.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:26, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * If the storm forms in the EPAC basin, and the storm is so amazing or destructive it gets it's own archive, will these Atlantic tropical wave discussions be included in the archive? I think it would be neat to have the entire lifetime of the storm included, including it's journey as a tropical wave (if it forms from one. See Joaquin) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:34, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, we're going to make the tropical wave discussions part of the archive. That way, we would be able to see the storm's whole life journey, which I also agree would be pretty neat. When the storm crosses into the EPac, I'll start up a new discussion on that page and provide a link to that new discussion here. This tropical wave is now extending from 10N80W to 19N78W, moving west at 10 kt, and the long term could be interesting for this wave. I do hope it becomes something big. :D  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:37, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Sorry for not updating these waves lately, but this one is now in the EPac. Discussion continues here.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:05, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 3 - October 9)
A brand new tropical wave is behind the 0/20 one, extending from 07N23W to 17N26W. This one seems to have some scattered convection. It is expected to merge with the other tropical wave by tomorrow night, and this may fuel the other wave.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 20:08, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'll call this Tropical Invest 16S(S stands for Sandy). Weegee is awesome 20:28, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Really? Sandy is 3 years ago... and this wave will never be as destructive and it's not even related to Sandy at all. Anyway, the wave lacks convection and is located at a somewhat extreme southern latitude, extending from 03N37W to 09N42W. I believe it could interact with South America at this rate. And it looks like the "merger" originally expected to happen with this wave back when I posted my first post never happened.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:27, October 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Extends from 10N50W to 03N50W now, and could crash into South America.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:27, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm right. It is, indeed, about to crash into South America. Anyway, it is located very close to the Windwards, and is starting to affect the residents there.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:30, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * The wave right ahead of it just consumed this wave I think. It's gone from the TWD now. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:56, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Steve, it is for HSMC. Spcardozo2 (talk) 21:34, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: GFS Caribbean system
GFS is apparently picking up on a tropical storm forming over the western Caribbean by the middle to the end of the month, so there is still time. However, I would like to leave this here. Owen 01:46, October 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * That looks bad. I half want it to exist and half don't because it would cause damage. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:23, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks really epic. :O It's possible one of these tropical waves might cause a monstrous hurricane according to this... let's hope it won't occur or else we got another future retirement candidate! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:27, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * We never know considering the Caribbean has been unfavorable all season long and it is a hotbed during October and November for hurricanes and even major hurricanes to form. Even Wilma, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic, formed in the Caribbean during October. Will potential Kate do the same thing? Not very likely, but if conditions become favorable enough in the Caribbean, we could definitely see a Cat 5. Again, not likely, but has potential. If it does develop, it will likely be along the lines of a moderate-strong tropical storm. Owen 16:41, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 7 - October 10)
Another new wave near Cape Verde. It's possible this could turn into the system mentioned above... :O <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:27, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Left the Cape Verdes, is now extending from 12N31W to 05N33W. We'll see what this one does. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:30, October 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * In the Central Atlantic now, and extending from 16N46W to 10N46W. African dust surrounds it, so it could struggle along the way. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 02:00, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's gone from the TWD. I guess African dust consumed it. It is possible that now, the above GFS system might come from the below tropical wave instead. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:31, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 9 - present)
Yet another new wave, located near the Cape Verdes, and extending from 20N26W to 10N28W. There is a lot of convection in the area associated with the wave, currently. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 02:00, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now extending from 12N32W to 20N27W, and it is beginning to leave the Cape Verdes. Convection still looks pretty good in the area I'd say. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:32, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * There's dry air ahead of it, so I won't be surprised if it dissipated like the above tropical wave. Current axis is 19N27W to 11N35W and it is tilted. We'll see what this does as time goes on. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:23, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Currently extends from 10N40W to 18N34W in the central Atlantic, and still looks a little elongated/titled. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:39, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's all the way in the central Caribbean. It moved a lot since the last post because I haven't posted here in a few days. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:09, October 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * About to crash into Central America currently. Maybe it'll do something in the EPac, but that's just wishing. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:48, October 16, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Over Belize
I think this is the same thing as the wave you're talking about, there's this new 10/20 AOI in the Atlantic which has a slight shot at developing when it's no longer inland and it moves over the Bay of Campeche. If it does form though, it would likely be a TD, or a weak TS at best. Also, the way it's moving would cause it to dissipate over Mexico instead of entering the EPAC, it looks like. ~Raindrop57 (talk)


 * Yeah, it is the same thing. It doesn't look like it has much of a chance to develop, but it could become something if it rapidly organizes in the BOC. There's also a possibility for the wave to survive into the EPac I'd say, but it also looks likely that it'll dissipate over Mexico. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 17:52, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (Early-Mid October - present)
I didn't put the starting date since it is in the central Atlantic now and it's been a while since my last posts. So I don't know when it really emerged off Africa, I believe it might have been around October 12. I'm pretty sure this is a new wave. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:09, October 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Still in the central Atlantic. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:48, October 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's beginning to near the Windwards, and is extending from 16N51W to 08N48W. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 17:55, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 15 - present)
Another new one over the Cape Verdes. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:48, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * It has pushed over to the central Atlantic. Extending from 14N38W to 07N37W, I'll watch for the future of this wave. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 17:54, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: GFS Subtropical/Tropical storm
GFS showing a possible subtropical or tropical storm by the end of the month. --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  is Joaquin still there?  •  spam goes here ^_^  15:49, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * I don't anticipate it to be much, since GFS models could be unpredictable. We could see a subtropical Kate by the time we're celebrating Halloween if it does form into something. Although it'll probably be a failure weakling, unless Bermuda receives some impacts from it. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:31, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
While the Atlantic continues to be boring and inactive, we're already deep into the season. This means it's about time to do retirements. Some people like Dylan might complain about starting this section early, but I'm just a bit impatient and want to start this section today. So, without further ado...
 * Nah, we're late enough into the season that I'm okay with starting retirement predictions now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:55, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * I began these predictions on August 9th (my time, not UTC) though, so that's why I was worried it might have been a bit too early and you would complain. Now, it's certainly a ripe time for these predictions. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:35, August 20, 2015 (UTC)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))


 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - It was the earliest U.S. strike on record, but the damages and deaths won't earn it retirement.


 * Bill: <font color="#77B">2.5% - 7 deaths were caused throughout its path, but damage was minimal. See you in 2021!


 * Claudette: 0% - I consider it an epic fail. The only impacts were rainfall in North Carolina (pre-development) and in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland.


 * Danny: <font color="#AAC">1% - Danny was a tiny major hurricane in a somewhat southerly location, but impacts to the Lessers are just minor at best. He'll come back in 2021.


 * Erika: 65% - Just look at what it did to Dominica. We might have an Allison 2.0 here.


 * Fred: <font color="#AAC">1% - It wasn't that bad for the Cape Verdes at all, but it was a really record breaking storm as it was the easternmost hurricane in the tropical Atlantic not counting the area where Vince formed, and it also became the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verdes since 1892. Because it wasn't that impacting, the name will almost certainly stay for 2021.


 * Grace: 0% - What a disgrace. Forgive the pun; couldn't resist.


 * Henri: 0% - No way. It failed so much, that it is very laughable.


 * Ida: 0% - Fought, but failed.


 * Joaquin: <font color="#A05">80% - One b@d@$$ storm. Epic Bahamas devastation could certainly give this storm the boot. What a naughty boy you've been, Joaquin.

Anyone else want to do theirs now? You can use my color idea if you like. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:17, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

My retirements: +<font color="#666666">0.5%
 * Ana:  0%  — Nah, a tropical storm


 * Bill y :  15%  — A severe tropical storm on a scale, well nah.

🌀 (talk) 00:01, September 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * Claudette: <font color="#666666">0.5%  — Who would retire this?
 * Danny - 0%
 * Erika - <font color="#70A">99% - OH OH OH OH OH! ERIKA YOUR GROUNDED GROUNDED GROUNDED FOR LIFE!


 * (Retirement colors:  NaN% , <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% ,  10% ,  15% ,  20% , <font color="#4A0">25% ,  30% , <font color="#CF0">35% ,  40% , <font color="#FD0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#F80">55% ,  60% ,  65% , <font color="#B00">70% ,  75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))(thanks steve)


 * :D :D odile is back!

•An n a and Elsa :  NaN%  - meh...

•Bill Clinton : <font color="#AAC">1%  - meh...

•Claudette:  NaN%  - u wot m8?

•Danny:  NaN%  - yes. just  NO .

•Erika:  65%   - destructive weakling? dang

•Fred:  NaN%  - LOL

•Grace:  NaN%  - no comment.

•Henri:  NaN%  - Henri's bae is Felicia

•Ida:  NaN%  - HAHAHAHAH LOLOLOLOOLOL

​•Joaquin: <font color="#F09">85%   - if 32 peeps missing and contributing to a massive flood event is not enough...

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:32, August 16, 2015 (UTC)

Puffle is here with more lame science stuff Retirements at a glance!!1

Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - Surprised me to see a pre-season storm, especially with an El Niño. But no, I don't wanna build a snowman.

Bill Nye : <font color="#Acc">2.7% -Sorry Billy, you're still not ready

Claudette: <font color="#AAC">0.1%  - Affected very little land, and was the worst storm ever.

Danny Phantom : <font color="#AAC">>1%  Okay Danny, I like you, but no. Just no.

Erika: <font color="#B0D">95%  - Can you find "Dominica" on the map? No? Erika did that.

Fred: <font color="#AAC">>1%  - Other than striking the Cape-Verde area, what did Fred do?

Grace: <font color="Silver">Fail%  - Clearly Grace was not amazing. What a disgrace of a storm. Have I had enough pun with puns yet?

Henri: <font color="Silver">Fail%  - And I thought Grace and Claudette sucked...Now Felicia has a boyfriend :P

<font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  00:38, August 30, 2015 (UTC)

Storm by storm, here's my calls... That's all for now. Ryan1000 11:39, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana - 2% - Minor damage and an indirect death. It was not nothing, but not enough to retire it either.
 * Bill - 17% - 100 million in damage isn't half bad, but the U.S, let alone Texas, have seen far worse than that and it's probably not getting retired.
 * Claudette - 0% - Gave me something to look at for a day. That's all.
 * Danny - 0% - It was really cool to see how this managed to pull off a major hurricane in the open Atlantic despite otherwise unfavorable conditions, but like Don '11, it fell flat on it's face as soon as it hit land. The Lessers suffered next to nothing from this, other than some (beneficial) rain.
 * Erika - 95% - Erika is now officially the costliest storm in Dominica's history with 374 million dollars in damage on the island, surpassing Marilyn of 1995, and the 3rd deadliest, after David and the 1834 hurricane. So yeah...Allison is getting company next spring.
 * Fred - 10% - Cape Verde got off much easier with this one than they otherwise could've.
 * Grace - 0% - This storm was just downright dis-Grace-ful (end sarcasm).
 * Henri - -1% - It didn't just out-fail Claudette and Grace, it out-failed Failicia, and that's saying something.
 * Ida - 0% - Another fish, another fail.
 * Joaquin - 75% - At least 34 deaths and possibly tens of millions of dollars in damage across the central Bahamas make this the worst hurricane to hit the islands in many years, if the damage is as extreme as I fear it could be and the death toll goes any higher, this is a guaranteed retirement.

My turn :D leeboy100 My Talk! 09:14, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 1%- minimal damage, 1 indirect death, this won't be enough for retirement.
 * Bill: 5%- Caused flooding and 7 deaths, but it's not likely it will be retired
 * Claudette: -0%- At least we got some Atlantic activity.
 * Danny: -0%- An impressive storm, I wasn't <span id="cke_bm_65S" style="display:none;">       <span id="cke_bm_67S" style="display:none;">  even expecting it to become a hurricane, let alone a category 3! It didn't hit land though,
 * Erika: 75%- I know, I'm being lenient with this storm, for two reasons. One: I don't know Dominica's track record for retirement, and two: and this is the big one. There is around a 50/50 chance Erika won't be retired because of the fact that it never reached hurricane strength. Despite me bringing these up, I personally think Erika should be retired, but I won't be too surprised if it's snubbed.
 * Fred: 5%- It shocked pretty much everyone with it hitting Cape Verde, but retirement is not likely.
 * Grace: 0%- What a disgraceful storm that took a fall from grace and became a storm that was not so amazing. This was the coup-de-grace of fails. Too much puns?
 * Henri: 0%- Not in a million years........
 * Ida: 0%- Meh.
 * Joaquin: 80%- Between all the hype it caused, the damage in the Bahmas, Bermuda impacts, and the El Faro, it will most likely be retired.

P.S. If Joaquin and Erika are retired, this will be the first Atlantic season to have two retired names since 2010. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:37, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

Leeboy, Gordon '94 caused most of its deaths in the less-prepared country of Haiti, who also snubbed Hanna '08. Dominica hasn't seen a storm as bad as Erika since, reportedly, David in 1979, which killed 56 people on the island. Ryan1000 16:08, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * I know Ryan. What I was saying was that there is a possibility that either a) retirement won't be requested or b) the WMO will snub it. Although, I think it deserves retirement, and will be mad (but not surprised) if it isn't.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 21:22, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan, that $16 million figure wasn't from Dominica. It was from Puerto Rico and it's mostly crop damage. According to the Prime Minister, damage in Dominica could be "tens of millions" and that the damage will set the island's development back 20 years.

While I'm at it, might as well give mine: Those are mine! 23:08, August 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1%  (It caught the US off-guard, but that, essentially, was it. Minor damage and one indirect death don't get a storm retired.
 * Bill: <font color="#359">5%  (Brought a higher death toll, but outside of teaching everyone about the brown ocean, nothing going. Still minor damage.)
 * Claudette:  0%  (Big ball of nothing.)
 * Danny:  0%  (It scared peop'le, but merely scaring people isn't enough most of the time (see: Sonamu). Danny did nothing else.)
 * Erika: <font color="#F0F">90%  (Nearly every storm that hit Dominica went on to do worse elsewhere, so this is entirely on them to ask for retirement, but likely 50 dead, tens of millions in damage, and the country set back 20 years? If those figures hold up, Allison may be getting company. Not higher because, as I said, I'm not sure about Dominica's retirement standards. EDIT: From tens of millions to $244 million? Even leaving margin of error (it being a tropical storm, Dominica's uncertain retirement standards, the stats being off), I can't bring myself to justify less than 90% now.)

(PS: This was mine. Forgot how many is a signature. <_< Jake52 (talk) 00:07, August 30, 2015 (UTC))


 * I see, my bad on that. If Erika was bad enough to set the island back 20 years on development, it's probably getting retired. Though I'm not sure what a good analogy would be for her; Klaus flooded Martinique alone, Tomas hit St. Lucia and eventually Haiti, I don't think there's been any storm before that hit Dominica hard and didn't do much afterwards. The last time a storm was this bad for Dominica was David in '79, which also ripped apart the Dominican Republic and hit the east coast as a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:33, August 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Someone edited the Wikipedia article to say Erika caused $100 million total, but a recent report says Dominica estimates that preliminary damage to basic infrastructure on the island may be as high as $226 million. Words fail me. Jake52 (talk) 06:21, September 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't recall, but Bill did cause 100 million in damage. Not negligible, but not enough by U.S. standards. If that 272 million damage total for Dominica is correct, I could definitely see Erika joining Allison as only the second TS to ever be retired in the Atlantic. I don't think any storm has hit Dominica this bad and not caused many impacts elsewhere. It's at least the worst since David. Ryan1000 20:19, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

Here's mine: I'll update this as each of the remaining storms form. Owen 16:50, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 1% - She was the earliest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States, but her impacts don't merit her removal off of the list.
 * Bill: 3% - Eh, $100 million in damages isn't huge in United States standards, he'll be back in 2021.
 * Claudette: 0% - Absolutely not.
 * Danny: 1% - He managed to impress and reach C3 status before getting shredded by wind shear before causing significant effects on the Lesser Antilles.
 * Erika: 65% - I'm being slightly reluctant with her, considering there is uncertainty behind Dominica's retirement standards. However, considering she caused $482.8 million in Dominica and $511.7 million altogether really is convincing that Allison is more likely than not to get company next spring.
 * Fred: 10% - It could've been much worse in Cabo Verde. It's safe to say he'll be returning in 2021.
 * Grace: 0% - Was this a joke?
 * Henri: 0% - Henri, you take the award for the Atlantic's biggest failure of 2015.
 * Ida: 0% - She had her opportunity, but failed.
 * Joaquin: 75% - He caused a lot of damage in the Bahamas, but I'm being reluctant because the islands were sparsely populated. Either way, I think Joaquin deserves retirement but there needs to be a realization that there have been names in the past that weren't retired for weird reasons such as Karl, and Joaquin could be one of them because of the fact these islands weren't very populated.

Time for me to post mine:


 * Ana: 3% - A pre-season shock for the East Coast, but impacts were minor.
 * Bill: 13% - Not negligible, but not bad enough for retirement.
 * Claudette: 0% - Lol, no.
 * Danny: 1% - A fun-to-watch throwback to the days when the MDR actually was the Atlantic's main development region (at least intensity-wise), but Danny sh-t the bed just as it hit the Lessers, and it's coming back in 2021.
 * Erika: 55% - Historic impacts in Dominica, which have already been elaborated on by Ryan and Jake. The only reason I am giving Erika such a conservative percentage is pure cynicism; considering that TS retirements are as rare as they are (with disastrous storms such as Bret '93 and Matthew '10 getting snubbed), I cannot bring myself to expect one. While retirement damn well should happen here, I'm not certain that it actually will happen.
 * Fred: 14% - Cape Verde may have lucked out, but 7 people did die when Fred sank a fishing boat offshore Guinea-Bissau.
 * Grace: 0% - Lawl.
 * Henri: -14% - LOOOOOOL
 * Ida: 0% - From potential to disappointment.
 * Joaquin: 75% (preliminary) - Reports indicate that large portions of Long Island (Bahamas), Crooked Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador have been wiped off the face of the Earth, with numerous unconfirmed fatalities (and that's not taking the El Faro into account). This prediction is preliminary because it's based on fresh evidence, some of which may be subject to change, but if these reports turn out to be true, then retirement is beyond justified. This could turn out to be the Bahamas' deadliest hurricane in decades.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:47, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Raindrop's Retirements - Many of these I didn't really track, so those are based on what everyone else said. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:50, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: <1% - Minimal damage and one death has never gotten a storm retired, so it never will. No matter how early it hits.
 * Bill: 2% - Although it caused some damage, it's nothing worse then a normal tropical storm making landfall in the U.S.
 * Claudette: 0% - The only thing I can say that's interesting about Claudette is how far north it was. Fail.
 * Danny: <1% - It made landfall as a tropical depression and became a major hurricane, which is cool, but it didn't cause much damage, so no way it's getting retired.
 * Erika: 55% - I'm being very lenient on this one because Issac in 2012 was not retired despite doing over 30 deaths and over $2B in damages, and this did about 1/4 of that. However, the deaths weren't in Haiti this time which snubs storms, which gives it a moderate shot at retirement.
 * Fred: 3% - Fred didn't manage to do much to the Cape Verde Islands thankfully, so despite it's mark in history because of where it formed, it's staying.
 * Grace: 0% - On satellite, Grace looked anything but graceful. And it didn't hit anything. Un-grace-ful fail.
 * Henri: 0% - It DID form kind of far north like Claudette, but an epic fail nonetheless.
 * Ida: 0% - It had a chance to be a hurricane, but instead got sheared away.
 * Joaquin: 55% - 34 deaths so far, and lots of damage done, it has a good chance of retirement. I'll update this when damage totals are known.

Ana: 1% Early storm but nothing more.

Bill: 1% Affect land and caused some damage but staying.

Claudette: 0% She didn´t affect land so staying

Danny:0% Our only major until now but didn´t affect lan so...

Erika: 70% Being conservative because Dominica could very well not ask for retirement,don´t know their track record, and it supposedly set back the economy for 20 years. I would also put a 70% to her because tropical storm are rarely ask to be tossed out of list. So we will see. Going to put a my final number once the NHC do her report.

Fred 1% some damage nothing more.

Grace:0% Fail.

Henri: 0% If I thought Grace was bad this was much worse.

Ida: 0% Frustrating storm to track but didn´t affect land soo I see you in 2021.

Joaquin???' mhm we will see.

Allanjeffs 23:14, September 30, 2015 (UTC)

My turn! Yay!

Ana: 1% Ana did cause snow in the northwest. Let it Go, Let it Go!

Bill: 0% Even though it about killed me, nope.

Claudette: 0% Fishy Wishy!

Danny: 0% Minimal impact.

Erika: 90% Erika was the 2nd worst storm in Dominica behind David in 1979, maybe even the wrost. In Dominica, Erika killed 36 people and caused $272 million alone!

Fred: 5% Rare event, but I say no.

Grace: 0% Well, she had to be graceful.

Henri: 5% I'm not sure about this one, but it cause several deaths in the U.K.

Ida: 1% She tried and tried.

Joaquin: 99% Currently: With the deaths in the Bahamas and a possible 32 people missing? This is gonna be retired most likely.

That's it for now! <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,0,0, 0.8);">H <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,151,0, 0.8);">u <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,250,0, 0.8);">rr <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(21,250,0, 0.8);">icane <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px #00faf4">1 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(0,55,250, 0.8);">6 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,0,250, 0.8);">2

11:02, October 6, 2015 (UTC)

Post-season changes
You know it's bad when the latest storm's TCR is out, and we're not even halfway with the season.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:23, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah...with Claudette's TCR just released we may have to open the TCR section of the betting pools early again this year. We'll wait until later though. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is proof the Atlantic is once again sucking this year. That is, unless the NHC is beginning the TCR's earlier than usual each season no matter how active it is. That could be a possibility also, but for now, it's likely it is starting early because of the season being inactive. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:37, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana could be upgraded to a Cat 1 because of this vid:Tropical Storm Ana 01L (2015)canes are awesome (talk) 20:16, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

saying by this. An n a and Elsa was possibly a hurricane.<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:23, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * This may not be true, because Ana's windspeeds may not have been hurricane-force (over 74 mph), because just having an eye doesn't mean you have a hurricane. --<font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">Party? OH HELL YES!!!  19:30, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Bill's TCR is out. Degenerated into a remnant low a full two days before the WPC operationally declared it post-tropical. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:34, September 10, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Danny should be downgraded to a Cat. 2 upgraded to 120 mph. 🌀 (talk) 23:20, October 2, 2015 (UTC)

My TCRs: Weegee is awesome 20:28, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: was a STD(severe tropical depression) near NJ
 * Bill: was a TD near NJ
 * Claudette: passed into HSMC as a Severe Tropical Storm
 * and more later

Replacement names
Since Erika and Joaquin has a chance of retirement now, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Erika and Joaquin? Here are some of my suggestions:

Erika
If I had to pick one of these, I would pick Ellie (my sister's name). Evelyn, Ella, or Elsa would be my next choices. Ryan1000 03:53, August 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Elizabeth
 * Eve
 * Ella
 * Ellen
 * Evelyn
 * Ebony
 * Eleanor/Ellie
 * Elisha
 * Elma
 * Elsa

Elsa and Ana on the same list would be hilarious XD. I choose Elsa. leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 15:54, August 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * If Elsa is its replacement, might as well call this list the "Frozen" list. XD --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:56, September 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * I just realized 'Olaf' is being used in the Pacific this year. It really is the Frozen list :D  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 01:45, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf and Elsa would be better for Winter storms. Anyways, Eve would probably be the replacement name for Erika. I don't wanna see Erika on naming lists anymore. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  13:44, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * My first choice is Elisabeth (spelled with an 's', as I have an old friend whose name is spelled that way). If that's too long, then I pick Eve as a second choice. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:18, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * I have to agree with Puffle. 🌀 are awesome🌀 21:09, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * I also agree with Puffle and Dylan's choices, but for the sake of Frozen, I'd much prefer Elsa being the replacement :P <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:32, September 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Erika its almost a gonner imo. it setback Dominicas progress by 20 years. If it have been Haiti the one affect I would put it at tossup because they don't ask for retirement examples Hanna 2008 and Gordon were snub by them.Allanjeffs 02:28, September 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Shush Allanjeffs. Eve is a great name. 🌀 (talk) 01:07, September 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hey, thanks for posting on my 20th B-Day. I'd say Eve or Emmy for a replacement IMO. To be honest, Erika surprised me for a weak TS. <font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog  22:15, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

For Frozen, i really want Elsa to let it go to be Erika's replacement. If not, then Eve. <span style="background-color:maroon; border-radius:8px; border-width:1px; border-style:solid; border:color:red; H; padding:0 5px; color:#AAAEAF; white-space:nowrap;"> MarcusSanchez   My Own Talk   Junior Administrator and Chat Moderator of HHW   12:33, October 8, 2015 (UTC)

Joaquin
Now let's see for Joaquin. -Spcardozo2 (talk) 12:23, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * If the damage in the Bahamas is bad enough, Joaquin will probably get retired. Some of my suggestions for replacing Joaquin are here:

I'd probably pick Jake or Jeffery from this list, with my runner-up choices being Jack, Justin, or Jacob. Ryan1000 21:21, October 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * James
 * Jacob
 * Joseph (maybe not due to Josephine, but who knows)
 * Josh(ua)
 * Jonathan
 * Justin
 * Jason
 * Jack
 * Jared
 * Jesse
 * Jeff(ery)
 * Jamie
 * Jake
 * I must say, the fact that the Atlantic has so few 'J' retirees under its belt makes for a lot of good choices for replacements! My top 5 picks are as follows:
 * Jeff (a nickname for one of my best friends [whose actual name isn't even close to Jeffrey :P])
 * James (in honor of a character from Thomas & Friends, which was my favorite show as a young child and I still hold near and dear to this day)
 * Justin (also the name of a friend of mine)
 * Julian (just really like the name, but it might be a little too close to Julia, which is on next year's list)
 * Jaime (Joaquin carried the Spanish theme over from Juan, so I wouldn't be surprised if a Spanish name is chosen to replace Joaquin)
 * Honorable mentions to Jorge, Josh, and Jacob/Jake. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:38, October 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Josias
 * Julen
 * Jaime
 * Jerrald
 * Jago

Just so you know, these are all obviously Spanish. I should underline  Spanish .<p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,0,0, 0.8);">H <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,151,0, 0.8);">u <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,250,0, 0.8);">rr <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(21,250,0, 0.8);">icane <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px #00faf4">1 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(0,55,250, 0.8);">6 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,0,250, 0.8);">2

20:49, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'd pick Joshua/Josh. Spcardozo2 (talk) 21:38, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Here's my picks:

Here are some more male J names: Andros 1337 (talk) 22:38, October 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Jasper
 * Jafar
 * Jayden
 * Jay
 * Jackson
 * Jamal
 * Jarvis
 * Jaylon
 * Jean-Luc
 * Jenkins
 * Hurricane Old Man Jenkins? :P <font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog  22:16, October 15, 2015 (UTC)