Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/October

Aoi:Azores
This thing is still there.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Now invested.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wonder why they invested it prior to it being on the TWO. Nonetheless, this storm would be absolutely amazing to have develop. We could add it to the list of the odd things that have happened in 2011. Yqt1001 12:34, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Deactivated. Yqt1001 19:14, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it would count as a subtropical storm or something better. Now we just have to wait for 2012 and hope for another one to form there.10'Q.'INVEST 02:03, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cuba
Well, after research, the convective activity in the Caribbean is a tail end of a front that is expected by most models to create a suptropical storm near Florida in 3-5 days. It still has to cross Cuba, however once it completes the crossing we should have firm details about where it will form and the track it takes. HPC said that the best analog to this AOI is a 1974 subtropical storm. Worth watching. Also worth noting that many models show one of the strongest MJO pulses ever recorded coming into the Atlantic this month. With the right conditions that might make my prediction for a 190mph storm not so crazy after all (but still really unlikely :P ).Yqt1001 21:32, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

I knew this thing was going to develop in the future, and an AOI is only the precursor to this thing. October hurricanes are very pesky and often hit us close to home here. I wouldn't be surprised if it does develop, but we're barely getting started here. Ryan1000 08:31, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

If this develops it goes either into the eastern GoM and up to the panhandle or it goes east of Florida or it goes straight up into Florida. --88.102.101.245 07:59, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * It looks to be crossing Cuba, and is likely to stall over the Bahamas until the conditions are favourable for it to develop. Yqt1001 19:56, October 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO. 20% as of 8 AM EDT. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:48, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * This AOI is forecast to head north or northwest for the next few days, but signifigant development is not anticipated. I would expect a TS, but not a very strong one. Impacts from this storm, if any, will likely be minor to moderate, but nothing severe. I think this could become Rina, but MJO is still holding on in EPac for some time, and it will until the next week or two. Ryan1000 13:04, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30% now. Likely to be invested soon. Yqt1001 17:57, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

Added by Kierant676::::::Still fairly disorganized Hurricane Kiewii 19:26, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's slowly organizing, but it's rather broad in structure, and overall development of this area of disturbed weather, if any at all, will be slow to occur. There is a ULL in the GOM that will keep it broad for the next few days, but it is expected to form into many smaller areas of low pressure, one over the Bahamas, one near southern Florida, and the ULL is expected to bury down to the surface in the future, which means we could get two or even three different storms from this. However, even if we get only one, it won't be that strong. Ryan1000 22:18, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

The circle is smaller now. However it's looking more likely that we could have 2 systems developing from this. The one on the west side of Florida (which would be first) and then one on the east side. Yqt1001 14:05, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

Still at 30%, and the database is not actually working right now.10'Q.'INVEST 17:28, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Seems like they found the LLCC now, still at 30%.10'Q.'INVEST 18:01, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Finally an invest. Now we can get the models to be more aware of this thing. But it'll likely stay at 30% until 93L crosses Florida and emerges in the Eastern Gulf. Yqt1001 18:33, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * What looks to be a well defined center on radar as 93L is a few hours out to landfall... Yqt1001 22:12, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * As long 93L emerges in the gulf, it has a chance of development. 10'Q.'INVEST 01:08, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I honestly think that it is Subtropical Storm Rina right now. It has atleast half of a well defined LLC (a buoy has yet to confirm that its closed), it has a well defined center and it even has organized deep convection, which isn't even a requirement for a subtropical cyclone. It's a partial warm core system so it won't be Tropical Storm Rina if it get's upgraded. ATCF jsut updated 93L's file to it being a tropical low rather than subtropical so it could be Tropical Storm Rina after all. Yqt1001 01:25, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Even if it does briefly become a TS, it won't make a huge difference IMO. This storm looks like a repeat of Tammy from 2005. A large, broad storm forming close to Florida and causing lots of inland flooding. I think this could be a pretty wet storm from the southeast to the northeast, but it has to become Rina now if it ever will. It is just about to cross Florida and head inland, and it still only has a 30% chance of developing in the next two days. It'll cross Florida before that, so that's not a very high chance of seeing a named storm... Ryan1000 01:34, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

Instead of Rina, we get a special TWO..which says that only a bit more organization with 93L and we would've had Rina. Looks like it is too late for Rina. It's rather funny, because the definition of subtropical cyclone has no mention of requiring organized convection. Yqt1001 03:25, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L has made landfall. Yqt1001 05:13, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Made landfall at NASA Kennedy Space Center.. down to 0%. Hurricane Kiewii 17:52, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * My gut feeling is that this was a subtropical/tropical storm and should have been Rina. For various reasons, some logistical, some political, NHC chose not to initiate advisories. It almost reminds me of the undesignated subtropical/tropical storm that hit South Carolina in 2008. It organized so close to the coast and was so short lived that NHC thought it wasn't worth the trouble. Existing, non-tropical gale warnings and high surf advisories, etc., adequately handled storm-related threats. This ignores the fact that it was in fact a system that meritted designation and naming. The 2008 storm, "Tropical Storm Twelve" in my database, wasn't even upgraded in post analysis so it wouldn't surprise me if this one isn't either; NHC is uncomfortable admitting to this sort of thing. But yes, this one should've been named. This pic shows the well-defined circulation center. -- SkyFury 22:18, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree 100% with you skyfurry this was a subtropical o tropical storm but maybe to don´t make feel people nervous they didn´t put a name even if it is unfair of their part Allanjeffs 23:00, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure. I'm not really convinced that this low was Rina. I wouldn't be surprised if it is upgraded to a depression in post-season, but I don't think this low was Rina, not even briefly. Still, October is not over yet, and the threat is not over either. However, it's safe to say that for now, the coast is clear in the Atlantic for the next 48 hours(BTW, I put Philippe in the September archive). Now my attention turns to Jova, I guess... Ryan1000 02:04, October 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Since the NHC has been put under tons of pressure from pretty much everywhere over 93L, someone got an email reply about it and why they did not name 93L (even though it did meet the definitions of a sub/tropical cyclone, which they did admit). [1] Scroll down to comment #212 (a post made by Levi32). Whether or not you believe him that James actually sent it, you don't have too, but it sounds pretty reasonable. Pretty much, in one sentence, it was a nameable storm for 1 hour and it was so close to land that there was no reason to name it. Also sounds like if they find evidence it was a nameable storm before there was solid proof of it, they might add it to the post season. Yqt1001 23:39, October 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Levi is an excellent forecaster in my opinion ireally like his tibits and i was just gonna publish that message he recieved and I knew this system should have been name if so we would have just need 4 name to finish the list we may get until vince but i really want to end it Allanjeffs 02:10, October 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * I still don't think there was a tropical storm out of this. I wil buy that it could have been a depression briefly, but 93L never had more than a 30% chance of development in it's entire life, and a storm like that won't go straight to a TS in post-season IMO. Ryan1000 03:19, October 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * there is a problem Ryan in your analisis is that 93l already have the winds of a tropical storm so it would be upgraded to a sub tropical or tropical storm if they upgrade it at the end Allanjeffs 03:29, October 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * The problem with 93L was it never got that(required) closed low-level circulation while NHC was tracking it. If it developed that closed circulation before it crossed Florida, it would have been named, but that didn't happen Allan. Dolly of 2008 had TS force winds for several days as it was crossing the Caribbean before it developed a closed low level circulation on July 20. 93L may have had TS force winds, but that's not enough to upgrade it to Rina. If NHC finds it had it's circulation beforehand, it would become Rina, but I personally don't think that's likely. Even so, ATL has silenced down a bit now that development is not expected in the next two days. Ryan1000 10:52, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Remnants of 12-E
10%.10'Q.'INVEST 12:08, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Says 0% here... finally some activity in the Atlantic. Hurricane Kiewii 12:31, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * This storm will produce a ton of rainfall over Guatemala and southern Mexico, but it's not going to be moving over the Caribbean sea anytime soon. It might cause flooding until it dies as it heads further west or stays stationary, but I don't really think this storm will pass over the CS and explode into a powerful storm. Ryan1000 19:49, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * 10% now. This will probably merge into any MJO development in the Carb when it comes into the Atlantic in a few days. This will likely be the huge MJO storm that every one has been predicting for a few weeks now. Yqt1001 20:22, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm worried more about the continous flooding that's going to be happening in Guatemala and Mexico more than development of this system, since it seems unlikely. Yqt, just because this thing looks like it's going to be a big Caribbean storm doesn't mean it will be. The entire system, or almost the entire system, is over land as we speak. It will not be moving much at all for the next several days. This storm is not in the same position as other monstorous storms that we have seen in the past, which were completely over the rich warm water of the Caribbean. I know we're all fearing a bad storm will come this October, but I don't know if we really will have one, and in the position this storm is in, this won't be the one we're fearing. For all we know, Irene might have been the chosen one for the entire season... Ryan1000 22:17, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I kinda meant this would be one of the first storms to come from the pattern we are heading into that favours insane activity in the Caribbean. I don't think this will become a hurricane, but I think it will likely develop as it slowly heads northeastward. Yqt1001 23:09, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * In EPac this is near 0% and Irwin is still alive there. In the meantime, before it (could) develop here, lots of flooding will be accosiated with this one in Central America and southern Mexico, so the potentially greatest threat from this AOI is occuring as we speak from flooding in CA. Ryan1000 02:08, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 10%10'Q.'INVEST 02:28, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * now 20% Allanjeffs 06:11, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Heading Northwest. It might move back over land over the next few days, but development is not iminent. Ryan1000 10:29, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 20%. Little time to develop.10'Q.'INVEST 23:59, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * It is a rather broad and ragged storm, and it will be heading over the Yucatan peninsula again tomorrow or Sunday, but unless this thing explodes right now, this definitely won't be Rina. October's half over and since Philippe and Ophelia dissipated, the Atlantic has gone almost completely silent. Irwin's still hanging in the EPac, and it isn't expected to dissipate for the next several days either. I knew Irwin was like EPac's Philippe. Ryan1000 00:44, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Regardless of development, it'll still cause flash-flooding in Jamaica, the Yucatan, Cuba, and Central America. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:31, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
This is actually 95L. Yqt1001 16:48, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * NOW it is invested... It was an AOI for the last several days. It looks like it may have a slight chance of becoming Rina before moving inland by tomorrow. Ryan1000 21:43, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10% because the invest center is overland. There are 3 centers associated with this system, and the invest center wasn't likely to develop in the first place. Yqt1001 23:37, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Although this invest may not become Rina, we also have an extratropical storm south of the Azores that may be taking on subtropical/tropical charicteristics, and development of that storm, though unlikely, isn't out of the question. Ryan1000 00:15, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, it's up to 50% now. There's the potential we could see Rina from this storm now, but it's right next to the Yucatan and will move over there later today before recurving back to southern Florida. It's starting to lose it's chances now though. Ryan1000 11:48, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I did say that they were following the wrong low here. Back when this mess formed, there were 3 lows: one over Central America (which is now in the EPac), one in the Gulf of Honduras (which is what the NHC originally had this invest centered on) and a little tiny secondary low down just off the coast of Nicaragua. I believe that the small little low over Nicaragua is starting to become the primary low as it heads northwards and it is now just off the coast of the Yucatan. Yqt1001 14:22, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Either way, the models don't do much with this one. It's possible it could become Rina, but most of the models keep it either briefly being a depression or a 40-45 mph storm. My feeling is 95L missed it's chance already, but we'll see. Ryan1000 15:52, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

2PM TWO as well as a recent ASCAT pass puts the center near 20.5N 86.7W, quite a bit farther east, and might be able to avoid the Yucatan all together. Otherwise, I'd say that this has a way higher chance of developing now because of the new primary center. Yqt1001 17:40, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

Even if it does become Rina, it most likely won't get past 40-45 mph due to it's proxmitity to the shear from that nearby cold front. It will head northeastward by later today or tomorrow/Tuesday and hit southern Florida by then, but this thing won't be anything serious for them as far as i'm concerned. Ryan1000 19:07, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

Still at 50%.10'Q.'INVEST 00:26, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Man, this is moving pretty fast.10'Q.'INVEST 00:59, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

95L just doesn't want to develop... This is what most of the storms this year have done. There weak, pathetic, whimpy storms that have never realized their potential. We have had 16 storms this year, but only Irene and Katia haven't struggled to intensify in their lives. Ophelia died out into a remnant low before it ever did get it's act together, and hurricanes Maria and Philippe became minimal hurricanes, but much later than they otherwise should have. This invest has been at 20% for the last 3-4 days and it should have been Rina by at least yesterday. October is more than half over and we haven't had a single depression since Philippe dissipated. Perhaps we won't have such a bad late season after all. That's good for us, but it's also very surprising since this isn't El Nino stuff we're looking at. Ryan1000 01:45, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Even Katia struggled to intensify this year, being downgraded to a tropical storm twice before finally reaching peak intensity. I still think this will develop, but won't become a powerful storm either. Maybe we'll have a 2005 November and December, who knows. 99.236.60.25 01:56, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * No two seasons are exactly alike though; we can't use 2005 or 2001 ect as excuses to this year because they had different atmospheric conditions at different times. The fingerprint of every season is unique, and although we could have a destructive late-season storm like Paloma or Michelle, the odds are not exactly in favor of it, and given the conditions we're in now in ATL, it's unlikely we will get anything past Rina or Sean. 95L may develop into Rina, but it's under heavy shear and it may have already missed it's chance if anything else. 94L is only at 10% and it will be under heavy shear as well as it heads westward. I think it's fair to say this season is starting to wrap up. Ryan1000 02:04, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2011 is an odd year, so odd that it is very foolish to call it over now. I'm not sure why there has been a shut down in October, and I think it is too late for us to get to Alpha this year. Tammy or Vince still seems likely though. Also remember that nature is impossible to predict, for all we know we could have a 5 storm November. I personally wouldn't say anything about what will happen for the rest of this year until the last minute of December 31st. Yqt1001 03:20, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60% now if this develop it will be upgrade straight to ts Rina because it already has winds of ts. Allanjeffs 05:54, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes! And now we need to wait for confirmation.10'Q.'INVEST 12:11, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, there is little confirmation of a closed surface circulation, we'll have to wait for recon/ASCAT to reveal that. It sure looks like a tropical storm though. Yqt1001 12:18, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 40%, looks to be starting to loose its chance. Recon is in there, so if it doesn't get upgraded at 5pm, it never will. Could be the second very close attempt at Rina. I would still be shocked if we don't get her though. Yqt1001 19:08, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

So much for the talk of that. It's now only at 30% and no closed circulation was found by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Upper-level conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next several days, so I actually wouldn't be surprised if we have no Rina at all. Ryan1000 19:52, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * If only Rina was as eager to develop as Jose was. Somehow we are having an El-Nino October when we are in fact going into a moderate La-Nina. This year is very very weird. Yqt1001 19:59, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * The greatest thing we can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. There wasn't a single one of the computer models in 2007 that called Humberto becoming a hurricane when it formed, and at the last minute, he somehow did the impossible. This year has been very strange, but mostly in a good way. We got luckier than we possibly ever could have with Hurricane Irene earlier this year, and although it caused 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths, it could have been much, much worse. The timing of it's landfall couldn't have been worse. Record August rainfall in New England kept the ground from holding any more water, the tides had reached their peak, not everyone in her path listened to the warnings, the only reason Irene wasn't as bad as it could have been was because she failed to recover from her ERC. If Irene did recover from it's eyewall replacement cycle, it would have been a historic, 100+ billion dollar catastrophe for the U.S. east coast. It was one of the costliest hurricanes in our nation's history nontheless, but was much less severe than it was feared to be. And Yasi still remains the most notable storm worldwide in 2011 in terms of impacts, since it was much worse for Australia than Irene was for us. Note Irene and Yasi are the more interesting topics of discussion here. This invest is turning into yet another epic failure. We might not see Rina after all. Ryan1000 20:22, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is a LLCC, but it's pretty far away from the thunderstorms.10'Q.'INVEST 00:31, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * For me still has a small chance even though i know that i may not get anything from thisAllanjeffs 04:11, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's only 20%. The circulation is now becoming elongated more than concentrated, and Rina probrably won't come from this after all. Ryan1000 07:08, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * 10%. This is only the third 60% fail I've ever seen since I started to track storms. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:08, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's down to a measly near 0%. It seems Rina won't come from this after all. I'm a bit surprised, but the season still isn't over yet. Ryan1000 19:50, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sorry, I haven't been around much, I've been slammed with work lately. It is painful how close these last two invests have been. It's crazy. I still think 93L was Rina, if briefly, and this thing was so close. If that center had migrated closer to the deep convection, that would've been good enough. We could easily be through Sean now. I think any chance we ever had of exhausting the list this year is gone now. To be honest, I'd be surprised if we get to Tammy. It's been an unusually quiet October. The only two October storms were carryovers from September. Philippe dissipated October 8. I'm fairly certain a non-El Nino year has NEVER ended that early. Ever. But the Atlantic sure looks done. Of all the models, only CMC develops anything in the Atlantic over the next week. -- SkyFury 22:46, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not quite, 1960 was neutral, and they didn't get anything after Florence dissipated on September 27. 1974 had their last subtropical storm die out on October 9, just one day after Philippe was killed. It looks like this year will have the second-earliest end to a non El Nino season. Ryan1000 23:12, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * There's still hope as this might move into the Atlantic ocean.10'Q.'INVEST 23:33, October 18, 2011 (UTC)

And 95L is gone off the TWO. Officially absorbed into a front. Yqt1001 23:47, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now all basins except NIO are now quiet.10'Q.'INVEST 00:31, October 19, 2011 (UTC)

Uh, NIO has no activity right now. The only thing out there is 93C, which is falling apart as we speak and is only at 10% for the next couple of days. Other than 93C, we're completely silent in the tropics. Ryan1000 02:39, October 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Spoke too soon, Ryan! Depression BOB 04 is out there right now.10'Q.'INVEST 12:06, October 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well we might have something to watch in the next 7 days. [2] Yqt1001 19:47, October 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * There still is a possibility we could have some more development in ATL, but we look just about shut down as far as I can see. The cold front heading across the eastern seaboard will produce lots of rain for the folks down in Florida up to New England, but no tropical cylones are expected to come from that due to unfavorable shear. The heart of the Atlantic is in a wasteland of shear right now and any development there seems highly unlikely IMO. This time of year is the ATL's brief secondary peak, but after this date both the ATL and EPac rapidly die away, and I wouldn't expect anything else possibly for the rest of the season if we don't get anything in the next week or so. And as ATL/EPac shut down, the SHem starts up, and WPac/NIO could have some additional activity as well. Ryan1000 20:37, October 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * And that front becomes a extratropical storm, which is right above me, dumping lots of useless rain. 10'Q.'INVEST 22:35, October 20, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: East of the Bahamas
30%.. finally some activity! Hurricane Kiewii 15:21, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

It's invested, but although this will probrably become Rina, all it will do is become a TS for a day or two and hit Nova Scotia or Newfoundland as a weak storm. Ryan1000 19:40, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Now invested.10'Q.'INVEST 19:50, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

Still at 30%.10'Q.'INVEST 23:37, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%, NHC says its likely this will be absorbed by a cold front soon. Yqt1001 23:51, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back up to 30%, it could be Rina briefly, if anything, but only cause some minor rainfall in Canada if it does. Ryan1000 02:05, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% again, likely to be absorbed by a front... 99.236.60.25 02:08, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * What do you mean? NHC still has this thing at 30%... Ryan1000 02:10, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's what they said:

A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS LOW COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.10'Q.'INVEST 02:30, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Graphical TWO wasn't updated.10'Q.'INVEST 02:27, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Argh, Rina's not coming after all. We probrably won't stop where Philippe was, but we have two weeks left until hurricane season is pretty much done. When October ends, we're pretty much done for. Ryan1000 03:22, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone Allanjeffs 18:20, October 14, 2011 (UTC)

This invest has now been absorbed by a frontal system. Most likely gonna become a nor'easter. Hurricane Kiewii 19:29, October 14, 2011 (UTC)

AOI:Off Africa
A new AOI has popped up, but it's only at 20%. There's some pretty hefty shear ahead of this one, but development is not impossible as it heads west at around 15 mph. Ryan1000 11:43, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It would be rather impressive if this develops. Would be no doubt one of the latest, if not the latest (latest I can think of is Joan, Oct 11) CV storm ever. There is an oasis of shear and warm water ahead of it, if it develops, it will have to be then. After that it will have to wait until about 65W to find another decent chance to develop. Yqt1001 12:39, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting any signifigant development of this system; it will run into a ton of shear by tomorrow and Monday, and behind all that shear is dry air, which will also knock this thing down a lot. CV storms are very rare for this time of year; Tomas of last year formed near the lessers and smacked St. Lucia as a powerful 100 mph storm, the latest lesser antillies strike on record, unless you count the Virgin Islands(Lenny) as a later storm. Joan of 1988 also formed near where Tomas did, as did an unnamed storm of 1892, but it's generally uncommon to see storms develop in this area at this time of year, and this won't be a Tomas or Joan IMO. Ryan1000 14:08, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

CV season isn't over!10'Q.'INVEST 14:38, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

this isn´t 95l is the one in the caribeanAllanjeffs 16:17, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

No, this is 95L. Looks pretty good too.10'Q.'INVEST 16:35, October 15, 2011 (UTC) 95L.INVESTAdded by Cyclone10:Impressive for this time of year. Shows just how abnormal this season has been. No this isn't 95L. 95L is at 80W, not 30W. Yqt1001 16:43, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. Yqt1001 17:39, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * My bad. It said INVEST on NHC's satilite page.10'Q.'INVEST 20:25, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's starting to lose itself a bit and NHC says upper-level winds are going to get a bit rough for this one by tomorrow. So it doesn't look like this one will develop after all, which really isn't that surprising for this time of year. The AOI in the Caribbean still hasn't organized and remains at 20%, so unless it develops by, right now, we won't see any further development of that storm either. That AOI should have been around at least 40% now, but it just doesn't want to get it's act together. Irwin is apparently the only real thing worth watching as of now, I guess... Ryan1000 21:26, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Its slowly fading, and our season is slowly slipping away. Hurricane Owen99 01:01, October 16, 2011 (UTC) 

ASCAT pass shows a decent LLC with this storm and CIMSS shows a strengthening anticyclone. I would say that if it can keep this together in the huge amount of shear ahead, it has a very high chance of development in the future. Yqt1001 14:27, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

I'm not so sure. It's going to be heading into further unfavorable upper-level conditions in the next few days, and since it's only at 10%, it could easily die there instead of develop later. The only way this storm can get it's act together is if there's no wind shear ahead of it, but NHC is confident the shear will stay there and will tear this thing up, which I think too. Ryan1000 15:52, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

This is off the TWO now. (anticyclone dissipated) Yqt1001 19:33, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Yep, this one's torn apart. It tried, and although it could regenerate later, it's not very likely to happen. Ryan1000 20:06, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Its back! 10%. Yqt1001 11:54, October 20, 2011 (UTC)

The ULL north of this AOI hasn't torn the sh!t out of this thing, but even though it has survived, I don't expect development by the time it reaches the lesser antilies. If it can hang on until it gets to the western Caribbean and the greater antillies though, then bad things are gonna happen. Ryan1000 21:13, October 20, 2011 (UTC)

Now down to near 0% again. This thing has pretty much vanished from the sattelite imagery and upper-level winds are still becoming less conducive for development. Ryan1000 10:41, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back to 10%.10'Q.'INVEST 12:06, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, it's at "Near 10%". Never seen them use that before. Yqt1001 12:19, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
20% and invested. Yqt1001 19:15, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

I'm surprised as to why the models bring it north then west. Anyhow, this will probrably be Sean and it will head towards the greater antillies in the long run, but if 96L(Rina) doesn't get out of the way by then, I think a C1 will be the best of this one, if not a C2, but future Rina sure looks scary. I wouldn't be surprised if it bombs in the western Carribean pretty soon. Ryan1000 20:07, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

I have a feeling this one's going to get a face full of outflow from 96L/Rina and get sheared into oblivion. So if it's gonna become Sean, it better get on with it. -- SkyFury 21:49, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

we may not see Sean after this thing Allanjeffs 02:00, October 22, 2011 (UTC)

No changes in organization. It might have gotten worse.10'Q.'INVEST 04:41, October 22, 2011 (UTC)

The models take this to near a major hurricane in the long run, so this one still bears watching. It may become Rina if 96L can't do it. Now SHIPS doesn't even forecast a TS out of 96L. Ryan1000 15:19, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

This one is interesting. The GFDL blows it up, but I think that has to be considered an outlier at this point. The global models aren't near so enthusiastic. We'll have to see. The FSU model site crapped out on me before I got a chance to look at the HWRF solution. But regardless, it should be interesting. -- SkyFury 04:29, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Really? I can't even load the page! But this could still explode when it gets into the Eastern Carribean.10'Q.'INVEST 12:14, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This one has become more organize i think we eill see Sean from this Allanjeffs 15:14, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Rina's going to be dominating the western Caribbean sea for the next several days, so unless she moves out, this one won't explode from how i'm seeing it. Ryan1000 22:40, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 20% now. Yqt1001 23:49, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I expect this one to hit Jamacia as a hurricane, or pass just around Jamacia before hitting Cuba. Otherwise, i'm not sure what. If Rina is still in the western Caribbean when this one (Sean) comes around, i'm not expecting much from him. Ryan1000 01:15, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40% now per special TWO. This is getting interesting. -- SkyFury 03:06, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe the E. Caribbean isn't as much of a graveyard this year than last year. Yqt1001 03:19, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I knew this one has the opportunity to become sean i knew at peak i think cat 2 it could be lower or higher depends on Rina and the enviroment Allanjeffs 03:26, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 30%. Yqt1001 12:20, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%. Yqt1001 19:07, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now only 10%. We might not see Sean from this after all... Ryan1000 02:01, October 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...Still at 10%, but now it's been de-invested. Now I'm starting to doubt we'll pass Rina at all. Ryan1000 19:47, October 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now a measly near 0%. This wave just got screwed over. Ryan1000 01:13, October 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 'Near 0%'. Doesn't want to die. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:06, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 10% again. Yqt1001 23:58, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It will eventually move into Central America by either tomorrow or this weekend, but Rina stole all the warm water in this area, so development of this is less likely than where Rina came from. Ryan1000 00:38, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

And now both this and the other AOI are gone completely. That being said, the season looks like it's over for good. November is all we have left, and i'm personally not expecting anything in that month. Ryan1000 13:30, October 30, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: South of Azores
Per what Ryan said on 95L's section.10'Q.'INVEST 04:18, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * This storm is heading further south than most models showed, so it may have a chance. Yqt1001 05:05, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone from NHC now. Ryan1000 11:52, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: SW Caribbean
4 models show this developing in the next 5 days. 10% right now. Yqt1001 11:55, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Expected to live for a short time.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It is? All of the models, even the ones who don't show development, have this staying around for 5 days. Yqt1001 12:19, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like my country will suffer more rain with this aoi maybe we will have Rina of this Allanjeffs 16:43, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% nowAllanjeffs 17:44, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The CMC remains consistent that this will become a hurricane. Now, we all know that the CMC has a bias on blowing up storms, but it's not usually this consistent. This is day two of it having this AOI head up into Cuba and then Florida as a hurricane... Yqt1001 20:09, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS has this having a landfall in Belize...as a weak storm.10'Q.'INVEST 20:22, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting much out of this one. It may become Rina, but TS intensity is probrably all i'm expecting from this one. The tail end of that cold front is still shearing this a little, but by the time it moves out, if this storm still remains well over open waters, it may have a chance to explode. I think proxmitity to Central America will hinder signifigant intensification, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 21:09, October 20, 2011 (UTC)

30% now. Lots of models show development, some show a hurricane. Yqt1001 12:27, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

we have now invest 96 BEGIN

NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201110211231 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L,, , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011 AL, 96, 2011102012, , BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011102018, , BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011102100, , BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011102106, , BEST, 0, 138N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011102112, , BEST, 0, 135N, 800W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Allanjeffs 12:50, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Why I have such a bad feeling that Rina could pull a Wilma? --88.102.101.245 13:30, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Invested now. 30%, but it's going to be higher by later today or tomorrow. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 13:33, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

60% now we may see rina out of this Allan jeffs
 * I see absolutely no reason as to why we won't see Rina. This storm doesn't have a short time limit unlike the last 2 chances at Rina. This one still has 4-5 days. Oh and now we have the European model on board with development, and it's acutally showing a 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane situation. Yqt1001 19:10, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not all of them do that just yet. There is still a possibility it could head westward and hit Nicaragua like Beta in 2005, as indicated by NOGAPS and BAMM. However, the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models all take this into a 135-140 mph monster bombing western Cuba 5 days from now. That's not good at all. I hope the next approaching cold front will turn it away from southern Florida, but I can't say that's certain as of yet. I think it's fair to say that the ATL is back into gear again though. This is looking like a re- Michelle or Paloma IMO. Ryan1000 20:07, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * So far this is moving west, wrong way 96L.10'Q.'INVEST 21:37, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, I very much agree, this is looking a lot like Michelle/Paloma. The model forecasts for this one are kinda scaring the piss out of me. The dynamical models (GFDL and HWRF, the only ones that give us a precise intensity forecast) both plow it into Cuba as a major hurricane and aim it right at south Florida. Granted, the current track forecast would take it through the Everglades, but the Florida Keys could be in serious trouble. They need to keep a sharp eye on this. Ryan, this is one is also reminding me a little bit of the two 1948 hurricanes that hit Florida. Tropics all of a sudden have gotten really interesting. -- SkyFury 21:46, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt, in terms of Florida impacts, I don't think Tampa will be severely affected by this future hurricane in the long run. The Florida Keys and the area near Miami may get quite a battering from this potential major hurricane, but the Tampa area shouldn't get a direct hit from (Rina) as far as i'm concerned. As for Cuba, they're about to get battered yet again... Cuba was hit by only 6 C4 or stronger hurricanes from 1900 to 2000. Rina may be the 5th C4 to strike the country in only the last 10 years. I don't have a good feeling about this wave. When that cold front moves out of the way, this storm will take off like there's no tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a C5 out of this storm, but it sure looks scary for the folks in the Keys and Cuba. Ryan1000 23:51, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70%. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:16, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * The circle has greatly decreased in size over the last TWO, but that doesn't mean we are any less likely to see Rina. The conditions for explosive development are almost perfect. Very low wind shear, bathtub warm SST's, and unfortunately, unavoidable landfall. I think this storm could very easily be our second serious retirement canidate this year. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:56, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow this thing is going to be small when it develops. Small storms = not good at all in preferable conditions. This thing has a really high chance of RIing, if not perfect chance. The upper level ridging pattern will be perfect for this thing to explode in conditions that may not seem good enough, something like 20kts shear should only disrupt the core enough to stop explosive intensification... 2011 has a few tricks up it's sleeve still. As of right now, 96L's low level "center" is quite far from the convection.Yqt1001 02:37, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * LLCC not yet made landfall, probably not going to make one now.10'Q.'INVEST 03:28, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Models have backed off the intensity forecast though in the latest runs, which are kinda confusing. The GFDL now swings it out, blows it up into a major hurricane as before, but then runs it into central America, which doesn't make any sense. The other models also show a more pronounced shift back to the west, though most not as much as the GFDL is showing. GFS slowly migrates it up to the Yucatan Channel and then sends it toward the Florida Keys. That could get ugly, but I think wind shear is going to pick up late in the period. I'd be surprised if it's still a major hurricane when it gets to the Keys (if that's in fact where it goes). GFS has it interacting with some low over the SE US. Not sure what to make of that. And to make things even more confusing, the ECMWF now mysteriously kills it in three days in the middle of a low shear environment over the juicy warm waters of the western Caribbean. WTF? The way I see it, the only obstacle for this thing is land interaction and with the weak steering pattern currently in place is making the track forecast really difficult. This plot however seems to suggest a lot of models are taking it up toward the Yucatan Channel, which could be a problem. So I'm not sure what to make of it at this point. We'll see how it goes. It's these kinds of storms that make the NHC earn their paychecks. -- SkyFury 08:18, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Intensity forecasting is crucial with these kinds of storms. They form down in the Caribbean, and, under the right conditions, they explode and then make landfall with very little warning at all. The folks in little Cayman and Cayman Brac were smashed really hard by hurricane Paloma in 2008, but Paloma didn't even exist 3-4 days earlier. They had no idea the storm was coming. This thing could explode into a monster storm in the northwest Caribbean and strike Cuba and Florida with barely a few days warning like Paloma. I don't have good feelings about this wave at all. Yqt, the fact that the circulation remains over water means it has more time to strengthen before landfall. I would be surprised if we don't have a TD by the end of today, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 11:58, October 22, 2011 (UTC)

Well, it's down to 60%. It just doesn't want to spin up. Yqt1001 13:12, October 22, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now the models seem a little more confident that this one will head into CA and not Cuba or the U.S. The models that once thought this would hit C4 now don't even take it past TS intensity. This might just be a re-Katrina(1999) if it does that. Ryan1000 14:40, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * ASCAT pass reveals a well defined almost closed LLC...a full degree away from the tiny center of convection. Not quite ready to be called a TD yet, but definitely better than it was yesterday. Yqt1001 16:26, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC puts it down to 50% because it will go into Central America. Which seems unlikely imho. They did the same with Paula last year..she never went into Central America either. Edit: Haha, after looking at Paula's archives. She went from 30% to 60% really quickly. Started going west, went down to 50%. Jumped to 80% and got upgraded to a 60mph TS soon after. In the exact same location too. Yqt1001 17:47, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * True this is looking more like Paula in fact Paula make landfall in cabo gracias adios Honduras as a strenghtening storm before going north this could be the same Allanjeffs 17:50, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I didn't expect the downgrade to 50%, but it only has a day or two until it runs into CA, so this wave still has a chance, but as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't be surprised if it's proxmitity to land kills it. It has a chance though, so don't let your guard down. Ryan1000 18:48, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Boy oh boy, what a difference a day makes. Just yesterday, it looked like we could be dealing with a major hurricane headed for Florida. Now it looks like we aren't going to get anything at all. Story of this season. And 97L has become less organized too. This season really has just quit on us. Unbelievable. Philippe dissipated October 8. After a near-record pace the first few months, we could be looking at the earliest end to a non-El Nino season in history. -- SkyFury 22:03, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nah, it's just for today. Tomorrow everything should come together and 96L should be numbered/named. Monday is when everything will be the best for strengthening, however vertical instability has really dropped the last few days. Yqt1001 22:40, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * now that the surface circulation is better now we need more thunderstorm and is a go on Allanjeffs 23:42, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks better now. 10'Q.'INVEST 04:42, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70% here come the 18 tropical depression of the season Allanjeffs 05:34, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * SHIPS only takes this to 49 knots... And Eric, no. I mentioned earlier 1960 was a neutral season and there was nothing after Florence dissipated on September 27. We could make the second-earliest end, but not the first, and now we have a higher chance of seeing Rina now that this is at 70% again, so that could end any hopes of an early end for us. Ryan1000 06:49, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * The GFS doesn't develop 96L, so the SHIPS has no path to use to make it's intensity forecasts. I wouldn't even waste your time looking at it right now tbh. Anyways, it's down to 60% again at 8am..which is interesting because the TWO mentions no reason for the downgrade. Yqt1001 11:34, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now SHIPS doesn't even forecast a minor TS out of this. Perhaps 97L can do the trick if this one can't. Ryan1000 15:19, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane hunters heading for 96L have departed Biloxi. Should get there in time for a possible 5pm first advisory but not the 2pm TWO. Yqt1001 16:25, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it will develop, or otherwise we will have to shift our attention to 97L.10'Q.'INVEST 17:07, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2pm TWO, the usual "slight increase in organization will cause a TD to form". Pretty much, let's see what recon says. Yqt1001 17:49, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * And so close! We'll have to wait for 3 hours.10'Q.'INVEST 17:56, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Some of the models take this up to hurricane strength, but most of them run it into the Nicaragua/Honduras border or Belize. HWRF still takes this one into southern Florida as a 100 mph C2, but it isn't very likely that will happen, and i'm not counting on it. Ryan1000 19:12, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

Well recon made it's first pass. It missed the center, however the direction of the winds are convincing enough to prove that there is an LLC somewhere on the eastern edge of the convection. TD18 at 5pm seems likely. However the strongest winds found so far have been 25mph... Yqt1001 19:34, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

TD 18 is born invest_RENUMBER_al962011_al182011.ren.Allanjeffs 20:06, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 18
And here we go! 35mph winds, 1005mb pressure. Expected to be a TS at landfall on the Yucatan. TS warnings for part of the Honduras coast. Yqt1001 20:46, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes!10'Q.'INVEST 20:51, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I must admit that the NHC track is shown by none of the models and that they are simply being in the middle of the model consensus. (which is shown by the huge cone) Half of which have 18L going into Honduras and the other half takes it northerly, so at this point the NHC track seems unlikely. Also 18L is supposed to maintain its intensity at 50kts for 3 days, in conditions that the NHC says is favourable for strengthening. The uncertainty here is rather incredible. Yqt1001 20:55, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Which one do you think is more probalbe to happen becuase here in H onduras we are at the top with all that water that come last week Allanjeffs 21:00, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think a landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua is most likely as of now. Yqt, I'm surprised the NHC forecast isn't following the more reliable models based on what they're expecting. To tell the truth, the only model that takes this storm following the NHC's path is GFDL,and GFDL isn't exactly the best model; it's rather biased. HWRF takes this thing past Belize and the Yucatan and then recurving to hit the U.S. as a category 2 near Cape Romano, Florida, in the same place struck by Hurricane Wilma almost 6 years to this day on October 24, 2005. GFS, BAMM, NAM, and NOGAPS all take this storm into the Honduras/Nicaragua border by tomorrow, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happens. But we'll have to wait and see. NOGAPS was the only model that initially took Irene north of Hispaniola, and that's just what she did. All we can expect is the unexpected. Ryan1000 23:47, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan but td 18 is moving NNW instead of west or SW so I think that they are good with the track because it is already north of Honduras and continues to north so I don´t see that track appening so i say that they are good but in intensity i am not so sure Allanjeffs 23:51, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * That may only be temporary Allan. It may turn back WSW or WNW as soon as tomorrow or the next advisory. We may easily have this thing heading on the GFDL or HWRF models a lot sooner than I thought. I'm looking at the WUnderground computer models, and either they're completely wrong or this is only temporary. I still think this storm may have a chance of hitting the U.S. or Cuba as a strong hurricane, but it might have already missed it's chance of exploding. We'll have to wait and see. This thing just formed a few hours back, so there could be a lot of adjustments to the tracks and models today and tomorrow. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:04, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Advisory 1A out...and still no Tropical Storm Rina. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:15, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It would soon.10'Q.'INVEST 00:45, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it is a TS AL, 18, 2011102400,, BEST, 0, 161N, 820W, 35, 1004, TS Allanjeffs 01:08, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rina
Per what Allanjeffs said.10'Q.'INVEST 01:26, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially TS Rina now. Just so you know, I wouldn't post the headers without official confirmation from the NHC. NHC doesn't always follow what ATCF says. Oh and forecasts calls for a category 1 hurricane now. Yqt1001 02:37, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it won't get any stronger than that, and even so, Richard hit Belize as a 100 mph storm last year and wasn't so bad, so hopefully Rina, if it hits them, won't do so much damage either. As of now, it's still a bit disorganized. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 03:01, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NHC says that they are using the conservaitve side imagine the other one Allanjeffs 03:30, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hey! We got Rina after all! This storm is looking like a bitch to forecast, I'm kinda glad I don't have to. There are so many factors you have to take into account. As far as intensity goes, the water is juicy. Wind shear isn't great but it's decreasing. That said, there's a lot of dry air in the area and who knows how that's gonna affect Rina. It could really hamper it or it could do nothing at all. As for the track, the more its strengthens, the more it will feel the break in that ridge, the faster it will recurve. The ridge is expected to rebuild a little bit to the west, but another trough will come down and bring the storm back north, so Rina should enter the Gulf of Mexico at some point in its life where it could threaten the US. Storms like this really make me nervous because they could do just about anything. We really need to pay close attention to this storm because there are so many variables. -- SkyFury 04:09, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I still have the bad feeling that Rina could pull a Wilma. --88.102.101.245 11:53, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * This can't pull a Wilma because it's too close to land, but damage could come from any catagory # hurricane.10'Q.'INVEST 12:11, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to peak below cat 2 but i think it will need to go upward Allanjeffs 15:16, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Rina now the six hurricane of the season continue strenghtening is forecast and now peak as a major Yucatan better watch out this storm Allanjeffs 18:47, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Rina
Yup. Special update. ...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... Like I said 3 days ago, yesterday would be it's formation day, today would be the day it strengthens the most. Expected to become the seasons 4th major! And the adage continues, "beware of the R storms". Yqt1001 19:04, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I keep this at catagory 3 hurricane.10'Q.'INVEST 19:48, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * "Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours." Incredibly well done Rina! You just showed all the TSs this year how it's done. :P Yqt1001 20:14, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Beware "R" names? I think the great adage should be beware "I" names... Only Rita and Roxanne have ever been retired in R name history, Richard wasn't that bad last year and 1969, 1933, and 1887 would have had "R" names if tropical cyclones were named by then(1969 had a few unnamed storms). But anyways, whoa. I didn't expect this jump. Rina is like Humberto over open waters. It became a hurricane in less than a day and the latest sattelite imagery scared the crap out of me. I spy with my little eye... an RI'ing hurricane with a PINHOLE EYE. This could easily become a C4 or C5 by tomorrow or Wensday. The latest forecast takes her into Cancun and Cozumel as a 3, but this one is really reminding me of Wilma. Same area, same size, same strengthening conditions, they all add up to one thing - devastation. Stay tuned. This could get really ugly. Ryan1000 20:24, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan I think Wilma was bigger than Rina is a small hurricane remeber Allanjeffs 20:50, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Allan, Wilma was about this size when she was a C1 too. She expanded a ton when she strengthened and underwent an ERC, and I expect the same will happen with Rina. Just because she is small now doesn't mean she won't expand later. And even if she doesn't explode in her size, i'm pretty sure she is already doing that in her strength. Ryan1000 20:58, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa! What did Rina have for breakfast, rocket fuel? Wow! Ryan, I don't think Rina will continue to bomb. It is possible it could get up to Cat 4, I wouldn't rule it out, but Rina is a small storm and small storms are very volitile and prone to dramatic swings in intensity. Wilma had pretty much an ideal environment to just explode. Rina has some wind shear and dry air to deal with, plus an approaching front that's going to cause shear to increase in 48 hours or so. So I would rule out a Cat 5 at this point. It seems extremely unlikely. All that said, things could still get rough for the Yucatan, particularly Cancun-Cozumel. It would not surprise me if Rina was a major hurricane when it gets there. The Florida Keys should also definately pay attention to this, though the storm is likely to be much weaker by the time it gets there (assuming it does, which is assuming a lot), probably not more than a Cat 1. -- SkyFury 21:37, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends. Rina's undergoing some rather quick strengthening by now, and although it could weaken from some dry air and shear, from how i'm seeing it on the sattelite imagery, this thing is just about to take off. It's propelling some outflow north of it to help knock away that small amount of dry air, and 2 days can make the difference between almost nothing and a disaster waiting to happen. Paula became a 105 mph C2 when it was approaching Cancun last year, but it recurved just before it affected them and was almost nothing when it hit Cuba. The thing is, Rina's already a C1 and it's showing almost no signs of weakening. Most of the environment around this tiny little thing is very favorable, so this thing could explode into a C3-4 as soon as tomorrow, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does. Whether or not it beats the cold front to Cancun and Cozumel is the big story. Cuba and Florida shouldn't get much, if anything, bad out of this storm. Ryan1000 22:40, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I have a feeling Rina will be a C2 at the next advisory... Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:47, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not going to be a cat. 2 yet, 80 mph.10'Q.'INVEST 02:46, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't do huge upgrades when there's recon coming within 6 hours (in this case, going to get to Rina before the 5am EDT update). Yqt1001 02:51, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Very much agreed. NHC will always, without fail, take the the conservative route unless there's recon to back it up, at times to a fault. If T-numbers are up, they will generally split the difference between TAFB and SAB, which is the smart thing to do. What I have a problem with is when a storm is forming. NHC is obsessive compulsive about having recon analyze every last detail of the storm before they declare that one has formed. I know it's good to be diligent and make sure, but at times I think NHC over does it. Notice how many recent storms have started as tropical storms, and how many of those had depression stages added on in post-analysis. -- SkyFury 05:58, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

For the record, and I'm surprised nobody's mentioned this, this is the first time in recorded history that we've had back-to-back seasons of at least 16 storms, and we're at 17 and counting. I know that 2010-2011 will never be able to hold a candle to 2003-2005, but this is the first time we've reached the 'P' storm in back-to-back years, and now we've reached the 'R' storm in back-to-back years and have a chance to do the same thing for 'S'. That's pretty remarkable. -- SkyFury 07:52, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now Rina's at 100 mph. We have a chance to see a major pretty soon, but its looking a little grim for the folks in Cancun. I'm expecting Sean to come after Rina, but i'm not expecting either hurricane to become catastrophic. Still, they could be destructive. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 09:17, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Rina has an eye now. 105mph but recon is finding 110mph surface winds, with one suspected wind reading of 140mph. I believe that Rina is likely to become the 4th major hurricane soon! Edit: Dropsonde released has 120mph surface winds. Yqt1001 19:07, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS and HWRF take this one into southern Florida, but I think this storm will be a Paula, but not missing the Yucatan Peninsula. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 19:35, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

Well she's at 110mph at 5pm. But wow, her overall organization beats all major hurricanes so far this year. Look at the outflow coming from her! It's almost picturesque! Recon will be in Rina in an hour or so and should be able to see if anything has changed for the 8pm update. Yqt1001 21:42, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

She is probable a major now with the info the recon have give us pressure 962,Allanjeffs 23:01, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Recon vortex message out. 100kts winds confirmed, pressure 966mb. Quite a drop. Oh and the eye diameter is only 17nm. That's a really tiny eye.... Yqt1001 23:37, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nope..still 110mph..weird. Yqt1001 23:48, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Like you said, NHC doesn't make big updates when there's more information coming from the recon. 10'Q.'INVEST 00:31, October 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it'll briefly be a major hurricane and hit the upper Yucatan near Cancun as a C2, but i'm not personally expecting anything catastrophic from this thing. Ryan1000 02:01, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

NHC has decided that the 100kts wind bfound y recon is dismissible..at least they said that Rina is very very close to MH status. Another recon plane is heading to Rina as we speak. Yqt1001 02:52, October 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * And still not upgraded.10'Q.'INVEST 22:46, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

Recon has found that Rina has weakened to a 85mph category 1 hurricane. She probably has peaked, but I think that she might've peaked as a major hurricane for a few hours last night. There's always post season! Yqt1001 19:08, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I personally don't think that happened. Alex of last year had a better chance of being upgraded to a 3 upon it's landfall in Monterrey last year(seriously, a 946 mbar storm should be at least a C3, if not a 4), but that never happened. There is a storm near Newfoundland right now that looked like it had subtropical charicteristics at one point earlier today, but it might have been only temporary, so we might not see a post-season upgrade to a subtropical storm from that either. This being said, I guess Rina will slowly start dying down. A Paula repeat seems most likely from this storm at the rate it is going. NHC only expects the shear to get worse from here on out, so no redevelopment is likely. Oh and 97L has been deactivated. All that being said and done, it looks like the 2011 AHS is starting to wrap up. Ryan1000 19:47, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Still at 85 mph, another Paula...10'Q.'INVEST 22:46, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">That system near Newfoundland almost became a subtropical storm. It's really a extratropical storm with a >950 mbar pressure. Rina's development over eastern Atlantic is still possible.10'Q.'INVEST 22:49, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hanging on to 85 mph.10'Q.'INVEST 03:21, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">And as quickly as it strengthened, it weakened. Kids in Cancun may not even get a day off from school for this. Rina has been a really ugly hurricane. It certainly doesn't look the part anymore, but recon apparently found 75 knot winds. Convection has continued to progressively diminish. Not as exciting as we were hoping but, oh well. A hurricane's a hurricane. But I agree, Ryan, I think this is the end of the 2011 hurricane season. -- SkyFury 08:05, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now 65 knts.10'Q.'INVEST 12:14, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rina (2nd time)
Now only 60 knots. It's collapsing faster than I thought. Ryan1000 17:37, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

Fortunately, Rina was no Wilma. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:02, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">As of now, i'm actually doubting this thing will be a Paula. It's at 70 mph now and it's falling as we speak. It may cause some rain on the Yucatan, but no signifigant damage should happen whatsoever. The AOI that was 97L has pretty much fallen apart and now it's about to move into CA. The EPac is no more favorable than the Atlantic; over there, the season has pretty much ended with Irwin and ATL is rapidly dying away as well. However, as we shut down, the SHem turns on. There isn't any real end to tropical cyclone seasons. Every month of the year has some extent of activity. November is the only month with all basins active, but it is the second-least active month, after May, primarily because SHem has just begun, ATL and EPac are dying down, and WPac is also slowed down. NIO has one last chance this November to make a comeback. Ryan1000 19:56, October 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Urm..Rina still has -70C convection associated with her. She hasn't pulled a Don/Nate. Yqt1001 02:18, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Rina
You so sure about that Yqt? Ryan1000 17:23, October 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am sure, the convection dislocated from the LLC and didn't simply dissipate upon hitting land. I don't think she even made landfall though.. Yqt1001 19:12, October 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Urgh, this thing pretty much died out when it did hit the Yucatan as a TS. Hurricanes Hermine of 1979, Jeanne of 1980, Marco of 1996 and Alberto of 1982 became hurricanes in the Caribbean sea/GOM and they dissipated before they even made landfall... This storm almost joined them, and in terms of overall impacts, it pretty much did. Ryan1000 19:44, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Rina
And that's it. Ryan1000 20:56, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

Bye, bye, Rina! Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:23, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I seriously expected a lot worse from this storm, but we can expect the unexpected in the tropics. Ryan1000 22:35, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 80px">Rina definitely ended with a good ending. 72 hours ago when we were looking at a 110mph quickly strengthening hurricane with forecast peak intensity at 120mph, I would've never believed that Rina would make landfall as a 45mph TS. Yqt1001 00:14, October 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Rina could have been a 140 mph or so hurricane heading for southern Florida by now or a few days before now, but it fell down on itself and barely tapped the Yucatan. This has basically been the story of the season. Luck. Sheer dumb A$$ luck. We got so lucky during this season, and I never had any idea we would become as lucky as we did. Rina, Irene, Emily, and Harvey are a few of several examples of storms that were feared to be record events for many areas, but in reality, other than Irene, pretty much did nothing. Only one storm is needed to make the season memorable, but the weirdest thing about 2011 is the fact Hurricane Irene was the only landfalling hurricane of this entire season(Maria was non-tropical before it hit Newfoundland and Ophelia was a tropical storm at it's landfall in Newfoundland). No other hurricane season with this many named storms has had so few landfalling hurricanes. 1990 was the closest runner-up AFAIK, which had 14 named storms but only Hurricane Diana officially made landfall as a hurricane in that year, and even that's only if you exclude Bertha's borderline hurricane/tropical storm landfall in Nova Scotia and Klaus when it brushed the Lesser Antillies. In other words, if you take out Hurricane Irene, there's nothing special about this season whatsoever. Ryan1000 03:01, October 29, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Off of Africa
This SHOULD be our last CV wave that can possibly develop. 10%. Yqt1001 23:57, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The conditions around this one are only marginally favorable for development, and not far ahead of this thing there is a crapload of shear. It has a slight chance of development, but it isn't going to be Sean as far as i'm concerned. 97L could, just could, be making a comeback though. Ryan1000 00:38, October 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20%. Yqt1001 13:37, October 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">20% Chance now. If you want to see the current info on Atlantic and Pacific Cyclones, a page made by me, Owen2011, See this Link. Hurricane Owen99 10/29/11

It looks like it's getting it's act together some more, but i'm still confident this won't be Sean. It isn't in the ideal environment for development, and wind shear will pick up in the next few days. The AOI that was 97L is moving towards Central America, and it's still under the influence of the shear being produced by the same front that killed Rina. I think this season has pretty much shut down, but there still is a chance for potential development of storms in the last 2 months of 2011. NIO needs to make a comeback this November and the SHem will officially begin in 3 days. Ryan1000 13:53, October 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan, this storm is racing into an area of moderate shear. It has a while to develop and this could develop sometime next week...Yqt1001 17:48, October 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * By then it'll be getting late. It's extremely unusual for storms to develop in this part of the Atlantic at this time of year. I don't think this wave will be any exeption. There is a possibility it could develop, but the environment isn't quite in the cards. There is some shear to the west-northwest of this storm, but there isn't very much of it and ~5 days from now this storm will be running into the cold front that just crossed the east coast. When it hits that it'll be dead. Ryan1000 18:15, October 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, down to 10% because this isn't organizing anymore and that it won't be in favourable conditions until Monday. Yqt1001 23:49, October 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's gone. I hope that's it. The AOI that was 97L is gone as well. That's it, i'm guessing. Ryan1000 13:30, October 30, 2011 (UTC)