Forum:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/June

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Let the Games Begin
The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season begins quietly today. Much of Florida still lies in ruins. Destruction on this scale has not been seen since Hurricane Andrew. Those affected by Andrew, however had the fortune in their misfortune to have two quiet seasons follow so they could rebuild. The victims of Nature's merciless quartet, as well as those of rainy Gaston, are not expected to have the same blessing. In fact, usually after a bad storm, the following season is quiet. (Fran in '96 followed by a quiet '97, Allen in '80 followed by a quiet '81 and '82, and plenty of other examples). Nature's lack of pity, mercy, and utter relentlessness have rarely been so brutally displayed. I just don't see how Florida could take another bad season.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 17:08, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Hey, I live in Florida, and we're hardy enough for this! And, btw, I heard of a popular movement to replace the current state flag with nice rectangular piece of blue tarp. Hah!! Awolf002 17:28, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * At least then the flag would have some actual practical use. That, and kids would be able to draw it. Seriously, what are people thinking when they put a detailed state seal on the state flag? Will no one think of the third graders? -- Cyrius|&#9998; 22:44, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * I was going to say something about how bad seasons aren't really followed by quiet seasons, but then I looked at the 1950-2004 ACE graph. Up until the mid-1990s, it's fairly well true. Until then, almost every season significantly above the normal level was followed by a much less active season.


 * So, yes, 1996 was followed by the very quiet 1997 season, but 1995 was the second most active season on record. The 1998 season featured the terrible Georges and the horrendous Mitch, but was followed by 1999, the season of Floyd and Lenny. And let's not forget that 2003 was an active year too.


 * Also remember that a relatively inactive season can still be an extremely destructive one. Andrew, anyone? And even apparently minor tropical storms can be incredibly destructive. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 22:44, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Not to mention that many MAJOR hurricanes are not destructive - usually at least once a year a strong Category 3 or 4 hurricane will not threaten land (can't remember the last time a Category 5 hurricane never touched land - the last storm of Cat 5 intensity to not be retired was Edith (1971) and that still made landfall as a Cat 5)...
 * A hurricane season could have only 1 storm forming, but that storm could be a Cat 5 hurricane hitting a major city head-on (and obviously catastrophic), and likewise, a season could have 20 storms but (by luck) no major landfalls...24.226.10.99 23:55, 1 Jun 2005 (UTC)

The only reason Jeanne did not do as much damage as the other Florida hurricanes last year was because by the time Jeanne got to Florida, there wasn't much left to destroy. With reference to an earlier comment, the 1999 season did not affect the hardest hit areas from the 1998 season. The most affected was the Lesser Antilles, hard-hit by Georges in 1998, it was affected by Hurricane Jose and further devastated by Lenny in 1999. This example merely proves that bad seasons can happen in succession. Fortunately, they are infrequent. Nor has it been really proven that this season will be another bad one for Florida. Arlene looks like it's headed toward Mississippi on a track eerily similar to that of Camille. We just have to wait and see.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:40, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)

Week 1
It seems there's some stuff trying to happen. That non-tropical thing in the eastern Gulf just isn't going away, and now they're saying it's developing low pressure just inside the Caribbean. The Gulf's still a bit cool for tropical activity, being just barely over the magic 80&deg;F (26.5&deg;C) mark. However, the Caribbean is about five degrees F warmer. Statistically, the most likely place to have a tropical cyclone in June is right where all that activity is happening, and there's a smaller box of activity where that tropical wave is entering the Caribbean.

If you're interested in that "recently installed NOAA buoy" mentioned in the outlook, take a look at the NDBC Western Caribbean map. Click on the label for the buoy's observations. It's the only one there, so it's not hard to find. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 22:17, 3 Jun 2005 (UTC)

Something's brewing. It's in the Tropical Weather Outlook, and tomorrow's aircraft reconnaissance plan has them preparing for the first tropical depression of the season. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 20:25, 7 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * And now the discussion: "Possible tropical cyclone is within 36 hours from 15N-20N between 82W-87W." -- Cyrius|&#9998; 00:36, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Aye, 90L INVEST has been tagged. Based on preliminaries, it looks like it will head north to the Gulf Coast; at what strength (a vague area of thunderstorms or more), we don't yet know. --Golbez 18:00, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)


 * And it's now Tropical Depression One. --Goobergunch|? 21:31, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Since 1) There are ALREADY watches up [Cuba] and 2) It is likely to become Tropical Storm Arlene, would it be premature to make a Storm section for TD1? --Golbez 22:11, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)

Premature, yes. While the NHC is forecasting it to strengthen, it could also do just the opposite and dissipate. Just wait a few more days and see what happens. --tomf688 (talk) 22:17, Jun 8, 2005 (UTC)
 * Agreed. Wikipedia can wait for stuff to happen. However, Golbez wanted to do the Wikinews thing this year, and first system of the season would fit well over there. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 22:18, 8 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * It's officially Tropical Storm Arlene now. This is the ninth time Arlene has been used, regaining the title of the most used name (which it will hold for a while)24.226.10.99 16:02, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)

Hey, not so fast there chief. If you include different spellings of the same name, Debby/Debbie has been used 8 times. When Debby forms next season it will tie Arlene. By the way, if anyone cares, Arlene formed on my sixteenth birthday. Quite a treat for a hurricane freak.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:24, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)

Week 2
Current subjects: Arlene, possibly bringing heavy rainfall to Cuba and the Gulf Coast, and just-tagged 91L INVEST, well northeast of Puerto Rico. As for Wikinews, I'm better at writing wire reports and headlines than at writing articles, but I think Wikinews might be able to handle itself. Hopefully. If not, I can write up a quick blurb. --Golbez 17:33, Jun 9, 2005 (UTC)


 * I'm not that familiar with Wikinews policies, but I wrote up First tropical storm of 2005 season forms in the Atlantic based on the lates advisory. --Goobergunch|? 17:54, 9 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Heh, whoops, I just wrote Tropical Storm Arlene forms, threatens Cuba, U.S.. --Golbez 18:02, Jun 9, 2005 (UTC)

Check out forecast/advisory 10 on Arlene:

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT. 50 KT.......100NE  0SE   0SW   0NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE  0SW  40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  0SW   0NW.

That's the distance of windspeeds from the center. Check out how empty the southwest quadrant is; if this storm had an eye, it would virtually be open to clear skies in the southwest. This almost resembles a subtropical storm. Nearly all of the strength is in the northeast.--Golbez 21:08, Jun 10, 2005 (UTC)


 * The storm's been under heavy shear since before it formed. What's amazing is that it's managed to make it almost to hurricane strength with its top blown off (and it'll probably get the extra 4mph in the next few hours). -- Cyrius|&#9998; 01:40, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Not to mention the fact that the soon-to-be-Hurricane Arlene has no profile at all on its west side...meaning areas to the west of the "eye" will likely get only wind, not much rain...she is just trying to concentrate her energy in one small area! This reminds me of the "forgotten" Allison of early June 1995 (in between the two devastating Allisons) which somehow made it up to Category 1 hurricane strength on nearly an identical path. The intense shear and dry air could mean it could become a hurricane in open water but return to being a tropical storm at landfall. 24.226.10.99 04:23, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * They pretty well always drop to tropical storm strength at some point in approaching/striking land, it's just a matter of time. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 07:52, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)

Arlene ain't a hurricane yet, but it still has a chance to before it hits land but it's running out of water. An eye is now visible on the satellite pictures so it looks like Arlene is trying to get those 4 stinking miles per hour, but with hurricane warnings now out, the people of Gulf Shores probably see it as a hurricane anyway. Florida tore Arlene's tail off. Now she's just an ugly little fireball.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:50, 11 Jun 2005 (UTC)

The HPC has finally gone quiet on Arlene, since it took so long I felt it might have warranted mention on the timeline. Also, we have 92L.INVEST southest of Hispaniola. --Golbez 22:18, Jun 13, 2005 (UTC)


 * You mean southwest. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 23:45, 13 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * "est" is vague. :) And yeah, I did. And do any of you else disagree with Awolf's addition of a bold summary to Arlene? I won't revert it without discussing, but it seemed a bit out of place. --Golbez 02:16, Jun 14, 2005 (UTC)


 * I read that as "east", heh. Guess neither one of our brains was working quite right. I'm feeling iffy about the mini-summary, but not enough to remove it. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 06:29, 14 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Guys, not sure how you identified me as source for that "bold summary", my history says it was 24.226.10.99 :)). But whatever, I also think it looks ugly. We should remove it. Awolf002 13:18, 14 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Hey, hey, don't get uppity just because you don't remember logging out and doing it. *looks around innocently* And I meant Tomf, not Awolf; the similar capitalization and the inclusion of an "f" in both your names confused my exhausted mind. Oh, wait, you say that 22:18 is UTC, and it was really 6pm? Oh. ... LEAVE ME ALONE


 * But, erm, anyway. Yeah. Tomf. =p An IP added it but I only saw Tomf's improvements. --Golbez 15:52, Jun 14, 2005 (UTC)


 * Wasn't me; I just clarified it a bit. I feel the date range for the storm is a good addition, but not sure if "maximum sustained winds" is necessary. --tomf688 (talk) 20:17, Jun 14, 2005 (UTC)


 * Some people seem to have an unhealthy "record" mentality when it comes to the maximum sustained winds. The important wind speed numbers for the vast majority of people are the ones associated with landfalls. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 20:37, 14 Jun 2005 (UTC)

Re: 92L.INVEST; Tuesday's Hurricane Hunter flight (AFXXX 01BBA INVEST) was cancelled, and the Plan of the Day for Wednesday has no flights. NHC has bet on it not doing anything significant for the next day or so. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 20:37, 14 Jun 2005 (UTC)

Week 3
While 92L.INVEST seems to be fading, we have 93L.INVEST in the Bay of Campeche. I didn't keep up with the invests last year; did last June (which as we know was devoid of tropical storms) have this many invests? Three so far? --Golbez 16:58, Jun 15, 2005 (UTC)
 * Stupid question: What's an INVEST? Are you talking about tropical waves? Awolf002 17:08, 15 Jun 2005 (UTC)
 * I suppose; it's an official designation. 91L.INVEST became 01L.ARLENE. L = North Atlantic, I guess L means Low. S = Southern Hemisphere, E = East Pacific, W = West Pacific, C = Central Pacific, A and B = Indian Ocean. These designations are given by the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) . IIRC, Cyclone Catarina is "officially" known as 50L.NONAME.  Invests are numbered 90 and up, and named storms are numbered sequentially. Tropical depressions seem to be numbered equal to their TD number. (Looking at the 2004 list, I'm not sure how much rhyme or reason there is to this system, but the FNMOC page is the best "early warning" you'll find for tropical storms worldwide) --Golbez 17:39, Jun 15, 2005 (UTC)
 * Interesting URL! Did you see the note at the bottom: "This is a Department of Defense computer system. This computer system, including all related equipment, networks and network devices (specifically including Internet access), are provided only for authorized U.S. government use.". Oopps... Awolf002 17:43, 15 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * They stick that on everything for extra legal firepower against hacker/crackers. A private citizen's accessing of an unsecured HTTP server is implicitly use authorized by the US government. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 01:48, 16 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Ah! Just found this: . Now I'm really interested where that word comes from! Awolf002 17:46, 15 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * Shorthand for "Investiation" I think. --Golbez 19:40, Jun 15, 2005 (UTC)


 * "Investigation", that is. The same abbreviation is used for Hurricane Hunter mission identifiers. The flights scheduled for Thursday are currently designated "AFXXX 01BBA INVEST" and "AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE". -- Cyrius|&#9998; 01:48, 16 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * OK you, I'm tired of you correcting my midday typos. :P And what do 01BBA and 0202A mean? --Golbez 01:54, Jun 16, 2005 (UTC)


 * The first two digits are a sequential counter of flights into the storm. The last letter (A) designates the Atlantic basin. In the middle...I don't know what BB means, the documentation specifies that XX is to be used for less than depression systems; but 02 indicates the second depression or better storm of the season.


 * And although you didn't ask, AF means it's an Air Force Reserve flight, and the XXX gets replaced by the last three digits of the tail number of the aircraft actually making the flight. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 06:19, 16 Jun 2005 (UTC)


 * All quiet on the western front. --Golbez 20:34, Jun 18, 2005 (UTC)


 * However, on the other side of Mexico, we have 91E.INVEST. Yeah, I could put this on the Pacific page, but this one is more like a chat room. :) --Golbez 21:47, Jun 20, 2005 (UTC)

Week 4
94L.INVEST over the Bahamas. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 16:54, 24 Jun 2005 (UTC)
 * I probably shouldn't be excited about a potentially deadly storm developing, but I am anyways. --tomf688 (talk) 00:20, Jun 25, 2005 (UTC)
 * It probably won't have time to get strong before hitting anything. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 15:37, 25 Jun 2005 (UTC)
 * Now due east of me, there's a special tropical disturbance statement out for it, probably part of what's causing today's cloudiness, but development is unlikely. --Golbez 22:51, Jun 26, 2005 (UTC)

95L.INVEST in the Bay of Campeche. No obvious rotation to my eyes, but has very dense cloud cover. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 28 June 2005 13:17 (UTC)


 * Hurricane Hunters flying out on a "resources permitting invest". Guess that's Air Force Reserve talk for "we ain't got nothin' better to do".


 * On visible satellite, the bugger looks like a tropical storm already. I'm personally calling about 60% odds on us having TS Bret before the thing moves over land tonight. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 28 June 2005 18:43 (UTC)


 * Now TD2. Trivia to put in when we have an "overview" section (or if it's named): This is the first time two tropical systems (TD or higher) have developed in June in the Atlantic since *1986*. --Golbez June 28, 2005 21:49 (UTC)


 * In 2003, there were two tropical depressions (TD2, TD3/TS Bill). That is forgotten since 'TD1' (immediately named TS Ana) was in April and people forget about the short-lived (only a few hours!) TD2 on June 11, 2003. 24.226.10.99 29 June 2005 19:52 (UTC)


 * Hilarious. 5pm CDT wind speed forecasts put the 12 hour probability of TD2 being named at 62%. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 28 June 2005 22:39 (UTC)

And as of 7pm here in the Central Time Zone, we have Tropical Storm Bret. Say hi, Bret. "Hi, Bret." -- Cyrius|&#9998; 28 June 2005 23:40 (UTC)


 * Bret is now down to a tropical depression, very quickly. It was barely a tropical storm and hardly looked like one. I wonder if they will reduce it back to a tropical depression in the final analyses? If a storm was originally a TS but actually only a TD, does it keep its name or would it revert to TD2? Anyway, this seems to be a typical June storm, developing close to the coastline - we're still a little ways from the Cape Verde season. That is where we could get the BIG ones, and most likely they will be in the range between Emily and Katrina, perhaps a bit farther depending on how active the seen is. 24.226.10.98 29 June 2005 19:46 (UTC)


 * It looked more like a tropical storm than Arlene ever did. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 29 June 2005 21:07 (UTC)

Next would be INVEST 96, correct? Does that list reset from 90-99 or does it keep going over 100? 24.226.10.98 30 June 2005 05:09 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure, this is only the second season I've kept track of Invests, and from what I saw last year, it almost seems random. No, they never go over 99 - the point of using Invest numbers is to keep them seperate from the "main sequence." Arlene was storm 01L, Bret was storm 02L, but in between there could have been three invests from 93L to 95L. (Another example of this system noted earler: The south Atlantic hurricane last year was recorded as 50L, since no Atlantic scale would ever reach 50. The named storms have never gotten above 20, and invests start at 90, giving a big empty range from 20 to 90 to play around in) So, I think the next one will be 96L, maybe all the way up to 99L - and then start over with 90L. Remember, INVESTs aren't anything special, nothing more than potential storms - but they are the first indication we have that a storm may be forming. There's no reason to record an Invest, so there's no reason to give them a unique identifer. --Golbez June 30, 2005 06:28 (UTC)

Hey i live in Florida as well, and I can't believe the mas of this recent sotrm its incredible!!!! What kinda of season are we in for this year and the next.