Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

99S.INVEST
Inside the Mozambique Channel.-- Cyclone10 00:05, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

This storm looks like it could cause some serious flooding, but i'm not expecting signifigant development of this system. Possibly it could become a minimal cyclone, but that's probrably it. I would be a bit surprised if we don't get Chanda at all though. BTW, we forgot to add the damage total section in the betting pools; I just put that in now. Ryan1000 00:12, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

It looks better on satellite now.-- Cyclone10 02:38, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

TCFA alert!-- Cy10 21:16, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Chanda... Ryan1000 01:03, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Not yet...-- Cy10 03:55, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Still not yet...-- Cy10 19:13, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

It probably be upgrade at any moment Allanjeffs 21:49, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 05S
On Wikipedia, it says this is a zone of disturbed weather, but I'm not sure if that counts as a tropical cyclone. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:44, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Now it has been designated Tropical Cyclone 05S by the JTWC. And no, we don't have Chanda quite yet. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:48, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

It's so close to becoming Chanda though... As I said earlier, it will probrably intensify into a category 1 storm or so before making landfall in Madagascar's southwest coast. The current forecast only takes it to a tropical storm, but given the way it looks, i'd be surprised if it doesn't become a minimal cyclone. Ryan1000 23:53, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

You mean a moderate tropical storm?-- Cy10 00:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Well, yeah, but anyhow, I still think Chanda will become a C1 cyclone in the future. And we can leave it as Tropical Cyclone 05S in the storms header, there's no need to put in so many words. Wunderground has it as 05S, JTWC has it as 05S, we should too. Ryan1000 01:01, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t think it will be much maybe a moderate to severe tropical storm Allanjeffs 02:03, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda
Named and at 35kts 10-min. Yqt1001 15:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

It won't get strong before its Madagascar landfall according to the official forecast (unless it pulls a Lorenzo or Humberto and becomes a tropical cyclone). Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  15:29, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

I knew it was not going to be much just a rainmaker Allanjeffs 19:48, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

...and there goes the last advisory by JTWC..-- Cy10 23:09, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: -- Cy10 22:58, January 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)