Forum:2016 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
Last year's EPAC season was incredible, and I doubt 2016 will be anything close due to the dissipation of El Niñ o. However, I'm still excited to see another EPAC season, and I'm hoping for some interesting storms, as even in 2010 there were some surprises (Celia and Omeka). Plus this year may be more active then expected if it's true that the EPAC is becoming more active again as it does every 20 years or so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:32, December 29, 2015 (UTC)

I think the 2016 Pacific hurricane season will likely be slightly below normal due to the possibility of a La Nina event, which usually inhibits Pacific tropical cyclone development due to cooler waters and more wind shear. If we are in a warm PDO/cold AMO as some are saying, 2016 will likely be close to normal in the Pacific. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 00:51, December 30, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Off southern coast of Mexico
Models are rather consistent in developing an area of low pressure off the southern Mexican coast in less than 240 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:17, June 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Question is when, not if this develops. All global models agree on a broad tropical system near Socorro Island, but perhaps due to its large size, the EPS is rather uncertain on when this actually gets going, but they've been trending towards an early July development. YE Pacific Hurricane  19:56, June 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is now on the TWO at 20% for 5 days, but near 0% for two. Assuming it doesn't become Agatha by July 1, we're going to have the latest first named storm ever in the EPac proper. Ryan1000 02:58, June 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * 0/50. GFS insists this will become a Cat 5, but the ECMWF shows a TS with this system and one to its left. Even on track the ECMWF/EPS/UKMET are all over the place, ranging from a system tracking W to a system threatening Socorro Island. GFS of all the models seem to most consistent with track and intensify, but it's the GFS and when the GFS and ECMWF disagree, the ECMWF is almost always right. YE Pacific Hurricane  18:58, June 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * It'll probably become Agatha by the weekend or early next week, but however strong it gets out to sea, it won't be affecting land aside from surf regardless. Ryan1000 03:04, June 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * 60 percent for 5 days now. Yup, this might actually be Agatha soon. Still 0 for 24 hours, though. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829 \Chat/ 23:22, June 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Agatha should be coming from this  AOI by the weekend or so. Since it is not expected to significantly develop until after Friday, looks like we may see our latest first named storm ever recorded for this basin (not counting CPac). The EPac, and the Pacific as a whole, has seen an insanely slow start to their seasons. The WPac is also about to see their latest first named storm after June 30, beating 1973.  St  eve  82  0   00:54, June 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm confident this system will form into Agatha, and it also seems likely that it could be a hurricane, maybe even a strong one. I don't think a category 4 is out of the question with this AOI. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 04:16, June 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * After days of flip flooping, the ECMWF has finally hoped onto the GFS bandwagon and shows a monster hurricane that will likely rack up some big time ACE. Fueled by a CCKW/MJO episode, the GFS last few runs has brought this to sub-925 mbar. Fortunately, the only land impacts will be high surf, as the storm will move westward before recurving out to sea. YE Pacific Hurricane  06:55, June 30, 2016 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invest'd and up to 30/80. Agatha is coming this weekend, and it will be the latest first named storm on record. I predict a potential major hurricane from this storm. It's been such a long wait...  St  eve  82  0   19:44, June 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Models backing off a bit in terms of intensity as the GFS brings this much further north than earlier. YE Pacific Hurricane  22:15, June 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * The 18z  Gfs now brings Agatha to just mininal strength, The Euro is also showing a lower end ts now. Even though this run disappoint me, I actually believe this might become a cat 1 or cat 2 storm.It has been so boring lately that even with a cat 1 I will be happy.Allanjeffs 05:23, July 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * latest GFS run makes this a hawaii threat in the long range. -- Hurri  cane Odile   15:24, July 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * I hope we see at least a hurricane from this, as long as it spares Hawaii from impacts. It's still 30/80, and development is going to be slow over the weekend, but it should become a TD early next week, <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:52, July 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's now 60/90. Unless, for some reason, TD 2 doesn't strengthen enough to be named, this one should be Blas. I still hope for a potential hurricane from this. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   06:17, July 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's 80/90. Should be a TD by tonight or tomorrow, and become Blas. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   18:05, July 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * I hear the EURO model makes almost Blas a pretty strong hurricane. 🌀Sincerely, IbAHAn1829⛅ \🌊Chat/ 19:02, July 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * GFS and ECMWF have a Cat 2/3 but this could be a bit stronger if the SHIPS shear forecasts verify. Anyhow, this is a TD at this point and the latest TWO has it at 100/100 so I'd be shocked if they didn't declare this at 3z. As for track, the ECMWF bridges the mid-level ridge near Baja and the large one over the N Pacific, keeping the storm south, while the upper-level low that pulls it NW gradually tracks west and weakens. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps the upper level low strong and moves it north, so the storm follows suit and recurves out to sea and eventually affects the Western US after merging with a frontal zone. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:18, July 3, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-E
<p style="margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;">It's here. Forecast brings it up to a minimal major with winds of 100 knots. Let's hope this materialises... ~ KN2731  {talk}  03:31, July 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * It might even go above that, cat 4 isn't out of the question here given the favorable conditions. Ryan1000 04:02, July 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * From NHC discussion 1:"'The environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening during the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant moisture.'"I won't be surprised if this thing goes to cat 5. The only limiting factor is how fast it can develop an inner core. ~ KN2731  {talk}  08:26, July 3, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Blas
Now named by NHC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:01, July 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Cat 5's are rare in the Atlantic and East Pacific, even moreso in July. Only 3 category 5 Pacific hurricanes have ever formed during July, Emilia and Gilma in 1994 and Elida in 2002. I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a 4, but a 5 might be pushing it. Ryan1000 11:09, July 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hold the phone, since when did the eastern Pacific get active? Sincerely, IbAHAn1829 \Chat/ 14:02, July 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Since just recently. Btw, Blas is at 60 mph now, he might become a hurricane before the day is out. Looks really well-organized as of now. Ryan1000 14:45, July 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is better than I imagined, maybe even C4 isn't even out of the question now... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829 \Chat/ 17:26, July 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * It says Blas is 65 mph and 1001 mbar. A hurricane should come tomorrow or tonight. I hope for a major c3+ :) <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:51, July 4, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Blas
Now 65 kt/994 mbar. CIMSS at T4.5/77 kt. --182.58.82.6 14:57, July 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Blas is really intensifying quickly, and Blas is also personally one of my favorite names in the EPac basin. T G  16:56, July 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * To me, the name seems a little strange, though I like it as well. It's finally strengthening again; 85 mph and 984 mbar as of the most recent advisory. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:50, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Blas is looking a lot better now, the NHC expects Blas to become a major hurricane for a little longer now, but the peak intensity is still kept at 120 mph. Wouldn't surprise me if it gets stronger though. Ryan1000 03:38, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * 100 mph/978 mbars now. Due to become a major hurricane later today. Ryan1000 12:19, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * The latest satellite image shows a pretty nice eye within Blas. Plus, it looks more annular now than it did before. Plus, I don't know if it will reach C4, though, I put the peak at 125 mph at the most. 🌀Sincerely, IbAHAn1829⛅ \🌊Chat/ 12:58, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Raw T# from CIMSS at 6.5! I think its 105 or 110 kt, could become a strong Cat4 before it weakens. Cat5 may also be not out of question if it continues to intensify. 182.58.52.155 14:03, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * :: Now 95 kt/970 mbar and may be conservative. 182.58.88.90 14:57, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think a Category 5 would be really pushing it. This might only peak at 150 mph. T G  18:08, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * This isn't going anywhere near Cat 5. This will peak at around 125 tops in 24-36 hours then weaken as it moves WNW and slowly rounds the edge of a ridge before turning north as it is influenced by a cutoff low. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:39, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

EP, 03, 2016070518,, BEST, 0, 142N, 1203W, 105, 958, HU,

18z BT has it as a major. --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> Hurri <font face="Comic Sans MS"> cane Odile   19:12, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Probably best to wait until the NHC makes it official to put in a new header. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:30, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Blas
Now official from the NHC. 110 kts, 954 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:45, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

What a beautiful looking hurricane, and it's supposed to stay away from land and reach 140 MPH. This is what I like to see. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:46, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Blas is currently quite impressive on satellite; I hope it's a Category 4 soon. It could be one on the next advisory though, considering that it is 125 mph now. Blas is only forecast to remain a major until about Thursday morning, so I'd be shocked if it became a C5. Still, this is amazing and impressive. Especially since it is not going to threaten land. Powerful hurricanes that don't threaten land are the best, IMO. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   00:21, July 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * 140 mph/947 mbars now. Forecast to hit 150 before weakening. Ryan1000 05:40, July 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * It never did. Now down to Category three.Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 11:18, July 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Oh well, guess it's time to start saying goodbye to Blas from here on out. Ryan1000 14:24, July 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * This should remain a major hurricane for another day or so, since shear is low. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:15, July 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's still 125 mph as of the latest advisory. Blas is persisting, but should continue its weakening trend tomorrow and beyond. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:36, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * The current strength is set at 120 mph/958 mbar. It should weaken below major status by tonight. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   18:57, July 7, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Blas (2nd time)
Currently down to C1 strength; 85 mph and 980 mbar. Blas should dissipate tomorrow. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   22:31, July 8, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Blas (2nd time)
Seems no one updated this when it weakened to a TS, but Blas is a depression now and is devoid of all convection. Next advisory should be the last. Ryan1000 11:53, July 10, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Blas
Called it. Oh well, it was nice to track while it lasted. :) Ryan1000 16:55, July 10, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Northwest of 94E
There's a new, 10/10 system slightly northwest of 94E. This likely won't become anything. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:54, June 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * The AOI made me eat my words. It's now 40/40, and could have a slight shot before environmental conditions become less favorable. It's possible this could end up like one of those June busts. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:55, July 1, 2016 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Wow it's 70/70 now...It looks like that other system may be BLAS, and this may be a weak Agatha... ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 20:26, July 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * I doubt T numbers get high enough for this to warrant an upgrade to TS, unless some inner core features develop. With that said, this is a TD for sure. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:40, July 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is surprising. o_o At this point, I wouldn't be shocked to see a TD by 8 P.M. PDT. It even looks like one on satellite imagery. This might be the actual Agatha, and the 30/80 one might just be Blas. The weirdness in the 2016 tropics won't quit, lol. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   21:02, July 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's 80/80 now and NHC said advisories could be initiated tonight. It looks like a TD on satellite imagery. I think TD 2-E is coming at 11PM EDT. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 00:01, July 2, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
We have TD 2-E. Expected to become TS Agatha briefly and peak as a 40 mph TS. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:36, July 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * Woah, this was surprising. If I had to guess whether this or the system behid this would become something first, I would not have guessed this one. Still, it became Two-E on July 2nd, so if it becomes Agatha it'll still be the latest date for the first named storm in the EPac proper. Ryan1000 03:55, July 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * This really organized FAST! Agatha could come at this rate, even if it will just be a weakling. I remember thinking the other system would be TD Two, but this attention-seeker had to do it first. :P We are now going to get our latest first named storm ever in the EPac basin. The WPac still hasn't produced a named (JTWC/JMA, not PAGASA) storm :O! Basically shows how pathetic the whole Pacific has been this year. The Atlantic is looking fun this year, but I'm focused here because the Atlantic hasn't got anything interesting right now. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   06:13, July 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is close to a TS. Agatha is finally coming (1.5 months late). And the WPac is supposed to foster a typhoon within the week; JMA has it as a TD already and JTWC has issued a TCFA. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:55, July 2, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Agatha
Agatha is here. 40 mph, 1005 mbar. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 14:53, July 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * Finally... T  G  14:58, July 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * It took a long time for Agatha to come... Maybe the system was aware of the inactivity streak and decided to become a named storm before the other one did. Forecast to reach 45 mph before weakening under increasingly unfavorable conditions. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   18:03, July 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, you serious Agatha? You seriously took THAT long to even form? And you wanna be a fail? Wow, you're even worse than even Beryl...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829 \Chat/ 18:57, July 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * I was almost sure this one was going to be Agatha because this one is much smaller than the other invest so it was able to strength faster. Many models are prediction Blas, Celia and maybe Darby, so we are for sure going to be entertain with the Epac. Models are also showing a big monster of typhoon going into Taiwan and Korea. Btw we didnt break Ava s record for what is worth. Allanjeffs 21:05, July 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * Sometimes a weak TS is better than nothing. Either way, we'll get a few strong hurricanes these next couple weeks so might as well get to track something different before hand. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:15, July 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, after being silent for so long, the EPac is finally ramping up and the WPac could finally get something too. Allan, Agatha technically formed as a tropical depression a day later than Ava, but Ava reached tropical storm strength later in the day on July 2nd than Agatha did. But the NHC counted the latter as the official record, so Agatha is the second-latest after Ava. Also, because Agatha is moving over unfavorable conditions first, 3-E (Blas to-be) could become much stronger. NHC forecasts a major from it even though it's just a depression for now. Neither will affect land, so they'll be nice to track. Ryan1000 04:00, July 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Agatha looks like it peaked at 45 mph/1003 mbars. It's now down to 40 mph/1005 mbars and will weaken further. It failed. But at least it gave us our 1st named storm a little faster than it otherwise would have been (if this didn't develop, Blas would have been Agatha instead). Hopefully Agatha does better in 2022. We also see a potentially strong Nepartak in the WPac happening right now. The Pacific's huge quiet streak is FINALLY over. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:45, July 4, 2016 (UTC)

18z best track has it as a TD. not shure if PTC yet --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> Hurri <font face="Comic Sans MS"> cane Odile   20:06, July 4, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Agatha
Confirmed by NHC, Agatha should die soon. Ryan1000 01:45, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Agatha
It's dead now. I'd have to say that Agatha is a fail. But at least it ended the inactivity streak a little earlier than it otherwise would have been. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:48, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Mexico
A new one popped up on the TWO. At 0/20 for now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:38, July 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now it's 40% for 5 days. We could see Celia here. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:57, July 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Models develop this into a hurricane moving out to sea. They also show possible Darby and Estelle (the former may threaten Baja California). ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:57, July 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * This actually may be a threat to Hawaii in the long run, since it's likely to follow a more westerly track than Blas and Agatha. Btw, this is now at 70% for 5 days. Ryan1000 01:45, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Here comes Celia. Hopefully Hawaii is spared, though. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:51, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now 80% for 5 days. Celia is coming... Ryan1000 12:21, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
invested! --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> Hurri <font face="Comic Sans MS"> cane Odile   20:13, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * It is 40/90, currently. Yep, Celia is coming soon. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   00:24, July 6, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
Debut advisory pins it at 30 kts/1007 mbar. Unless something unexpected happens, here comes Celia... only five days after the EPAC proper's second-latest start on record. Nothing for 1.5 months, and then three storms in a week :D --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:07, July 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Celia is certainly going to come from this TD. The forecast currently makes it a hurricane by the weekend. I think there's a slight shot of us getting a major from to-be Celia. The EPac has exploded, for sure! <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:39, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's in no hurry to strengthen. I hope we see Celia later today. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   18:55, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Will likely remain a TD or weak TS for another 36 hours, but if this can avoid Blas's cold wake, this will become our 2nd major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:19, July 8, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Celia
now TS Celia --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> Hurri <font face="Comic Sans MS"> cane Odile   15:30, July 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * I hope it can fight off upwelled waters and become a major hurricane... I know it seems possible. :D <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   22:33, July 8, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Celia


Hi, guys! It's been a long year for me, but I'm finally excited to be back on Wikia! However, I'm probably going to be gone again when the school year starts. Anyway, regarding Celia, it remains the same intensity as six hours ago. This system has put up quite a fight with its environment, from Blas's cold water to intruding dry air. The system still has about another day or so to intensify before SST's cool down, and I think it may have a shot at MH intensity. Also, the NHC has raised their forecast peak for Celia up to 90 knots. And Dylan, I didn't catch that funny typo! Perhaps they meant to say a stronger hurricane? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:42, July 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Looks ok, but it has some unfavorable conditions to deal with. It'd still be pretty cool if Celia becomes a major hurricane despite them. Ryan1000 02:49, July 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * It now has an eye.....182.58.61.222 09:42, July 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Significant strengthening is looking more and more unlikely as Celia refuses to pull itself together (pun intended). Banding is good, but convection isn't very intense. Given that Celia has one day left of favorable conditions, it should peak at a strong C1 at most, if it isn't weakening already. Fun fact: if Celia doesn't become a C2, this will be the fourth time we have category 1 hurricane Celia in the EPac (and not to mention one more Atlantic incarnation in 1966). ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:49, July 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Dry air has attacked...again. It has eroded Celia's eyewall, and despite some rather high Dvorak estimates, the NHC has bumped up the hurricane's intensity to only 80 knots (90 mph)/977 mbar. It only has about 12 more hours before cooling SST's gradually weaken it. Unless Celia does a last minute RI, major hurricane intensity is probably out of the picture. And to add on to the above trivia, Celia does not have a problem becoming a hurricane; of the ten systems named Celia, only the 1998 storm failed to do so (and the 1962 Atlantic incarnation). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:47, July 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * I've been busy lately and not able to watch the tropics much, but I turned on The Weather Channel and saw Celia out there. It's obviously not going to reach the strength of its 2010 predecessor. It's eye looks really big and ragged and is headed towards shear, and unless RI happens, it's not reaching major hurricane strength.  Leeboy100 Hello! 18:01, July 11, 2016 (UTC)

Category 2 now, 85 kts/973 mbar. Should be near its peak intensity. Andrew, the advisory text displayed was from when Celia was still a tropical storm. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:58, July 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Andrew is back? O_O This is like, a blast from the past! He must have been way too busy outside Wikia. I literally missed you. Anyway, Celia is currently 100 mph and 972 mbar. It shouldn't reach major hurricane status, and I believe she is near or at her peak. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   06:10, July 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm kinda amazed right now, everybody. I just came to check NHC, Celia is now a 100 plus mph C2 with a huge freaking eye, LOOK AT THAT DARN FREAKING EYE! Wow, how amazing annular hurricanes are. Oh, and welcome back, Andrew! Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 11:07, July 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 90 mph with the newest advisory. Looks like major hurricane strength isn't happening here (and it's even less likely with Darby). Ryan1000 17:27, July 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's down to 80 mph now, and it's predicted to weaken further. Oh well, I guess Celia didn't have enough stamina to achieve major status. The upwelling from Blas was also too unfavorable for major status to happen. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   23:45, July 12, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Celia (2nd time)
There goes. Celia's eye is gone, and it should slowly weaken while approaching Hawaii. If it survives, it will cross into the CPac tomorrow evening. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:28, July 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Celia is now down to 65 mph/990 mbar. It has been basically reduced to a large swirl of clouds. I don't think Celia will reach the CPac before dissipation. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:46, July 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Celia is currently maintaining strength at 50 mph/1000 mbar. I hope it manages to survive to the Cpac. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:14, July 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, Celia really let herself go. That huge eye is gone, and it barely looks tropical anymore. Well, that just goes to show what shear and cold water can do to tropical cyclones.  Leeboy100 Hello! 21:34, July 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's still alive at 40 mph/1004 mbar. It's also in the CPac currently. Celia should die soon. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:29, July 15, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Celia
It weakened to a depression a while earlier in the CPac, but now it's down and out...until 2022. Ryan1000 04:35, July 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
Another area of invest is expected to form south of Mexico by early next week, and is at 20% for 5 days. Looks like we're going to be seeing Darby down the road. Ryan1000 16:25, July 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * I predict we could see Darby from this next week. It's funny how the Pacific has exploded but the Atlantic wants to be completely inactive at the same time, the total opposite of June. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   18:52, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Monsoon trough has moved from the ATL to the EPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:22, July 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * 0/30. Darby is probably coming... <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   22:34, July 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * 20/60. May not be strong, but this should be Darby by around Monday, with Estelle and Frank not too far behind. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:14, July 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * 40/70. After such a quiet early-season, the EPac is really on a roll right now. Ryan1000 11:53, July 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * 50/80. Don't know why this hasn't been invested yet. Ryan1000 16:56, July 10, 2016 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Looks like I spoke too soon, just got invested and is at 70/90. Likely to become Darby or 5-E by tomorrow. Ryan1000 19:06, July 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * The EPAC proper is really pulling a "weather whiplash" (a term Jeff Masters uses)! After being completely dead until the start of July, we have witnessed three storms and two hurricanes form in less than 10 days! I hope 97E can continue this parade of storms. Also, Steve, in active Atlantic seasons, it is natural to witness 20-30 day active to inactive cycles. To illustrate, 2012 also had four storms before the end of July, but had no activity at all in the month itself. Then a record-tying number of named storms formed in August. I believe the Atlantic is in "dormant mode"; give it another couple weeks and we will see another storm or two. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:49, July 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still at 70/90. Its circulation is well defined on satellite, but convection is minimal. However as I type this convection looks like it's blowing up on the eastern to northeastern edge of the circulation center, so we may get Five-E in a while. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:43, July 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * 97E is now a little more organized. Chances of formation have gone up to 80% for the next 48 hours. Can't wait for another tropical depression! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:49, July 11, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E
The EPAC continues to make up for lost time, we've got a 30 kt/1007 mbar depression now that is currently forecast to grow into an 80-kt Hurricane Darby. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:55, July 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * This basin has exploded, for sure. The NHC currently forecasts a hurricane out of this, and I believe there may be a slim chance of major status (though I wouldn't count on it due to upwelled waters). Andrew, I know that the Atlantic sometimes goes inactive during otherwise active seasons. I was just a little surprised at how the activity literally shifted straight from the Atlantic to the EPac, probably the monsoon trough's cause, like what YE said. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   06:14, July 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * You know what, I now expect to see a 195 mph C5 from Darby! Ok, that won't happen, well, I HOPE it won't. The way we're going now, we are bout to BEAT THE ATLANTIC BASIN SOON! Wow, just wow. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 11:12, July 12, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Darby
It's here. Only forecast to reach category 1 though, as it passes over Blas and Celia's wakes. Ryan1000 17:27, July 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 knots, but I'm not sure what to make of this one. Right now, Darby ooks to deepening steadily despite moderate wind shear and it ould become a hurricane tomorrow morning, before leveling off like most storms do at that intensity as it solidifies its inner corer. On Thursday, the storms should be over 27-28C waters still and shear should be relaxing, leaving the door open for Darby to become a major hurricane. The core of Darby should avoid the upwelled area, but SST's should be declining around or slightly after Friday, leading to a slow weakening trend. Shear should be low, however, so rapid weakening is not expected. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:22, July 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's 50 mph now, and 1002 mbar. Darby might peak at C2 status, but I won't be shocked to see him become a major. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   23:48, July 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Almost a hurricane, and the NHC notes that Darby has been rapidly intensifying (30-knot depression to 60-kt TS). If this continues, we'll have a major soon, however sea surface temperatures will drop to 27°C in 24 hours. Then we may see Celia version 2. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:33, July 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * It is still a tropical storm (70 mph/996 mbar). It might be a hurricane on the next advisory or the advisory after that, though. I personally predict a peak of Category 2 strength, but I'd say a major isn't out of the question. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:48, July 13, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Darby
65 kts/992 mbar now. Darby's previous four incarnations - 1992, 1998, 2004, and 2010 - were all Category 3 hurricanes. Could Darby '16 buck the trend, or make for five in a row? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:45, July 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Darby is one of the lucky Pacific names intensity-wise, alongside Daniel, which became a major hurricane in all but two of its incarnations. NHC also mentioned that the upwelled water in the wake of Blas and Celia is warming again in some locations, and the peak intensity is upped to 105 mph as of the latest forecast discussion. It could go higher though, but like the previous 3 storms, it'll be well away from land. Ryan1000 00:08, July 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * I think I see an eye forming, and Darby is getting stronger. Unrelated note, but for some odd reason, I always thought Darby was a female name.  Leeboy100 Hello! 21:37, July 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * The storm looks quite messy again, and convection is quite shallow on the eastern semicircle. Honestly can't see this doing much as SST's are only declining, although a storm of this intensity and structure isn't atypical for July. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:19, July 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Darby's now a C2, 100 mph/975 mbar. T  G  15:22, July 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * I don't think we'll see Darby be a major hurricane. It might be nearing its peak now due to declining SST's, and forecast to weaken from here on out. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:20, July 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * And here is another annular hurricane. (Aren't they supposed to be rare?) It looks like a major for once, and I hope it is. Just having lots of category 2 hurricanes that miss becoming majors is disappointing. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:07, July 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'd rather have a swarm of C2s with the occasional major, than a swarm of C1s/TSs with only two storms exceeding that level (*cough* 2013 *cough*). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:33, July 16, 2016 (UTC)

I'm going to wait until the 2pm advisory makes it official to put in a new header, but we just might have our fifth Category 3 Darby in a row. EP, 05, 2016071618,, BEST, 0, 179N, 1245W, 100, 962, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1009, 200, 15, 120, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DARBY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 011, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:15, July 16, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Darby
"...DARBY UNEXPECTEDLY BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE..." Reminds me of how Daniel '12 continually denied forecasts and patiently crept up to MH status. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:38, July 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Not bad, not bad. Nice to see another major from the name Darby. Still a fish though. And Daniel, as I mentioned before, is also a fairly lucky EPac name intensity-wise. Ryan1000 22:48, July 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * His strengthening stunt surprised me. I thought Darby was supposed to be moving over cooler waters! I know it is now, so it should weaken from here on out. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   00:24, July 17, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Darby (2nd time)
Down to a 2 again (100 mph, 974 mbars), and forecast to continue weakening from here on out. Ryan1000 13:08, July 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 90 mph/978 mbar. The current forecast says that it's going to enter the CPac and linger as a TS until Friday or even beyond. So, it might not be time to say goodbye to Darby yet if this NHC forecast pans out. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   05:56, July 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it probably won't be re-strengthening from here on out, even if it may linger a while as a tropical storm. Ryan1000 11:31, July 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it is quite possible for restrengthening as it moves back into waters with temperatures as high as 80°F. T  G  20:18, July 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Well, yes, but keep in mind Darby is also moving into a higher shear environment. This will likely compromise any reintensification. Nevertheless, this hurricane has been very resistant. It still has winds of 65 knots (75 mph), with a pressure of 988 mbar (hPa), but the NHC notes this may be an overestimate. Also, Darby is still forecast to move westward and then northwestward, entering the CPAC in about a day or two. On a side note, Philip Klotzbach recently tweeted that Darby was third hurricane to form between July 4 and 13. Only 2012 has witnessed this before (with Daniel, Emilia, and Fabio). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:04, July 19, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Darby (2nd time)
After maintaining its intensity, Darby continues its plunge. Convection is becoming fragmented per the NHC, and despite an apparent eye, winds have been lowered to 60 knots (70 mph) with a pressure of 991 mbar (hPa). Since the storm is going to be fighting cool SST's and then shear in the next several days, it should continue weakening. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:23, July 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Darby has become weaker than Estelle. Despite maintaining a relatively impressive satellite appearance, winds have been lowered by the NHC to 55 knots (65 mph), with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa), in accordance with the latest Dvorak estimates. As the storms continues nearing cooler waters (and the CPAC), it should keep weakening, although the NHC is holding off its intensity for a few days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:35, July 19, 2016 (UTC)

Another AOI south of Mexico
Here comes another on the 5-day at 0/20. Conditions should be favorable enough for this to become Estelle, but since it's expected to form over the same place that four other storms (including 97E) have passed over, their cold wakes may cause this to remain weak, like Celia now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:39, July 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * 0/60, currently. Estelle is going to come from this. I know it. Upwelled waters from the previous three systems might prevent significant strengthening for future Estelle, though. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   06:16, July 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! NOOOOOOOOOOO NOOOOOO NOOOOOOO NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!1!!1111!1!!!! Why you do dat, Estelle!? Your putting the supposed to be active Atlantic to shame! Sigh, I hate you, Estelle, I just, really hate you. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 11:16, July 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * it's July 12. This is fairly normal for the EPAC; the ATL will get busy in a month or two. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:30, July 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * This AOI is 0/70. It is quite a normal occurrence, and I think something similar happened in 2012 (when we saw Daniel and Emila be powerful majors while the Atlantic was dead silent at the same time). Future-Estelle might struggle to reach major status as it passes over the same general region as Blas, Celia, and Darby, for obvious reasons. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   23:52, July 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * 0/80. Has such a large difference in percentage appeared before? Anyway the Atlantic is supposed to remain dead for the next two weeks at least. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:30, July 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think it might have appeared before, though I'm not sure. This is now 30/80 and should be Estelle soon. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:50, July 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * 40/90. This is looking good to become Estelle soon. Ryan1000 00:14, July 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * I know this is kinda off-topic, but I just want to say I love reading you guys             conversation. I'm kind of a big fan of you all lol. Amy50632 (talk) 07:14, July 14, 2016 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Invest'd and up to 70/90. Likely to become Estelle over the weekend. And we could have Frank following up as well. Ryan1000 22:36, July 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wait... so you're saying, we are going to have FRANK too??????????? That's it, I'm done. I'm out. I'm done tracking the EPAC, proper. You can't be serious. First, nothing, then SIX storms in not even a month. This is a ZILLION times better than 2010... PS, at this rate, I might have to change my forecast, into a below average Atlantic and an above average Pacific, even if the conditions warrant for an active Atlantic(lol jokes)...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 02:50, July 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Stuff like this can happen when it comes to hurricane tracking. 2004 AHS didn't see a storm until July 31, but the rest is history. I do think we'll see some sort of calming down by the end of the month to some degree, but yes, we'll likely see Frank this week. Regarding this invest, it looks terrible right now and this invest has 3 days over 27C+ waters to deepen, of course this is not taking into account the upwelling from the previous 3 storms. The conditions should be favorable enough over the next few days for a minimal hurricane, but I'd be surprised if this was anything more than a Cat 1/2. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:13, July 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
Official from the TWO. 35 mph/1007 mbar. T G  15:21, July 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * I believe this may be the EPAC'S answer to the beginning of the 2004 Atlantic Season, we have Darby, potential Estelle and maybe even FRANK in the near future as of now.Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 16:48, July 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Even the NHC seems fed up with the EPac's outbreak of activity lol:
 * ...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...
 * Their usage of "yet" clearly shows it. This TD is forecast to be yet another July hurricane. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:22, July 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * For the record, if this storm does become Hurricane Estelle down the road, it would be the 4th hurricane recorded during this July, which would tie 1990 for the second highest number of hurricanes ever recorded during July (1992 had 5). Ryan1000 21:20, July 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Estelle
Not surprising. So we now have TS Estelle. Meh, I'm getting sick of all these EPac storms, I would like to see the Atlantic have a storm for a change. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 03:10, July 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic had 4 storms before July, they could use a break for now, it's the EPac's time to shine. Plus the season has still barely begun in the ATL, the only other Atlantic season to have 4 storms before July (2012) had no storms in July itself but still went on to be the 3rd most active year ever. Give it some time and activity will kick up again over there. But back to Estelle, due to the upwelled water ahead of it from the previous 3 storms, Estelle should peak as a category 1 at most, maybe a 2, but nothing stronger. And Frank could follow, but likely on a more southernly path. Ryan1000 04:32, July 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Let's hope this peaks at category 1; I've had enough of category 2 failed majors. Estelle sounds like a good name for a powerful hurricane, but this is unlikely due to the (quoting NHC) "Blas-Celia-Darby trio of storms" creating a huge stretch of cold water. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:13, July 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * At the most, I predict Estelle to reach C2 status. It'll be a failed major due to all the cool upwelled waters, similar to Celia. I think I would give it, like, a 20% chance of becoming a major. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   00:27, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Estelle should pass north of Blas, Celia, and Darby's upwelling actually. If this can get an inner core established tomorrow, I like it's major chances. ECMWFS, GFS, HWRF, and GFDL are fairly bullish with this, but the SHIPS and LGEM have backed off a bit. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:58, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's almost at hurricane strength. Should be by tomorrow. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   05:57, July 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Estelle actually weakened a bit lately (to 65 mph from 70 earlier on), possibly due to it's larger size than the previous systems and/or some dry air coming into the northwestern quadrant. It could still become a hurricane by tomorrow, but not more than cat 1 if it does so. Ryan1000 03:25, July 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Dry air has prevented Estelle from intensifying, which would explain why it has not taken advantage of the otherwise favorable environment. Its current intensity is still 55 knots (65 mph)/993 mbar (hPa). The NHC noted that the storm currently is experiencing extra heat energy, which could be the final boost for hurricane status. However, time is running out, as Estelle will soon be moving into cooler waters and drier air. Motionwise, the storm should move westward and then WNW as it weakens and becomes post-tropical. Quite the turnaround! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:24, July 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it becomes a cat 1, I'd hate to see the hurricane streak get broken, but it wouldn't surprise me if it doesn't become one. (Also Andrew, Abela is technically not dead yet in the SWIO, it's just weakened a little). Ryan1000 12:42, July 19, 2016 (UTC)

(←)Well, Abela is dead now. As for Estelle, it's starting to develop an eye feature, but because convection is still rather weak, the NHC is holding off on raising the storm's intensity. There still is about a day left to potentially see our season's fifth hurricane from Estelle (counting Pali). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:26, July 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Well, it looks like Estelle may fall short, the intensity has leveled off for now, but it has to get its act together fast if Estelle wants to become a hurricane before conditions start deteriorating by tomorrow. On a side note, Estelle is the most commonly used name in the EPac, with this being the storms 11th known incarnation, and it will inevitably come back again in 2022 since this storm probably won't affect land. Arlene holds the Atlantic record, with 10, which will be 11 next year. Ryan1000 17:24, July 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, it looks like Estelle's window has passed. Dvorak numbers have decreased per the NHC, but for now, intensity is being maintained. Although there is still a slight chance Estelle can intensify before SST's cool and the environment becomes more stable, given how it has stayed disorganized, 60 knots/991 mbar will probably be as far as Estelle gets, and her 1998 predecessor remains the last time she became a hurricane. Nevertheless, I still have hope Estelle will be upgraded to a hurricane post-season because Dvorak estimates from its peak intensity support 65 knot (75 mph) winds. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:30, July 19, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Yet another well southwest of Mexico
The EPac can't stop spitting out TC after TC. 0/20, and is a candidate for Frank. And the Atlantic continues to be dead silent at the same time. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:26, July 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this is becoming Frank down the road. And it may become a hurricane too. Ryan1000 21:20, July 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * I like that we are getting names storms one after another but the Epac need to cool off a little because even though I like hurricanes most of them will probably attain cat 1 or 2 because of the upwelling that previous storms did. Imo Georgette or Howard will be the last ones for this outbreak in the Epac. It have been a long time since we have an outbreak so big in the Epac.Allanjeffs 01:17, July 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * We'll likely see this storm take a more southerly track unless it gets absorbed by the system behind it. As for this outbreak, Georgette should be the last system, as lower level convergence will briefly enter the ATL (although there are no signs of anything in the basin) en route to the NIO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:47, July 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully this gets significantly stronger than the bunch of category 2 hurricanes we've been seeing so far. Since it's forecast to form further south (below 15°N), it will have access to warmer waters. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:11, July 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * We haven't had a "bunch of C2s" yet, only Celia peaked at that status so far. But Estelle and this AOI might only peak at C2 status. However, I hope future-Frank is a major since it will be further south into warmer waters. Still at 0/20 and might be a named storm next week. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   00:29, July 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure if this AOI will become a TC. It seems like it will move into cooler SST's, and if it does develop, it probably will not be very strong. Nevertheless, chances of formation are now 30% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:40, July 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is going to be travelling farther south than the previous storms we've had, so this could become something, but it may take a while for it to do so, and it may eventually reach the CPac in a week's time or so. Ryan1000 17:27, July 19, 2016 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF model storm
ECMWF has been showing a storm for a while that's separate from the system above. Also at 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:05, July 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is actually at 0/50 now, and it might become Frank before the above system becomes Georgette. Ryan1000 01:46, July 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow, the EPac can't stop its nonstop production of storms. We may be up to Georgette by the end of the week. The basin is on fire! Hopefully the Atlantic finally gets something soon, I'm getting sick of the inactivity there. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   05:59, July 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * At 0/60 now. Frank is such an ominous name for a hurricane. T  G  20:23, July 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Conditions seem to favorable for further development, and we may see another TD within the next several days. Chances of development are now 70% for the next five days. Assuming this AOI becomes a tropical storm, it will be the sixth one to form in July, putting us one below the record set in 1985 and last year. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:35, July 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * And this could be a re-Odile, but weaker. 4th consecutive year with retired names, anyone?
 * 182.58.103.115 15:35, July 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * This isn't affecting land most likely. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:42, July 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Current TWO forecasts a track nearing (probably parallel to later on) Baja California  so a slight deviation to the left = Cabo San Lucas landfall. The current TWO seems to indicate a Day 7 or 8 landfall in central Baja California and ECMWF shows a path close to there. [5 day forecasts] [run at 00Z]