Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

96E.INVEST
Whoa, that was quick. Currently at 10%, but the models don't go as crazy as I expected with this. Might be a hurricane, but that's about it. SHIPS only peaks this at 70 knots in the far future. Then again, that was the same kind of prediction they made for Eugene last year and look what happened...There's another low that could come behind this and explode in the next 3-4 days though. EPac's starting to ramp up. Ryan1000 13:58, July 2, 2012 (UTC)

I say at least a cat 2 Allanjeffs 15:34, July 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep, this blew up and looks really good.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:51, July 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now up to 30% -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:52, July 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * It seems every storm named Daniel wants to be a long-lived major threatening Hawaii. This one probrably will too, in the long run, but I don't think it will make it to the islands themselves. Ryan1000 21:23, July 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Probably will be our second major of the year and I say ex 97L in the Atlantic will develop in the pacific and will become Emilia.Allanjeffs 22:31, July 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * I have a question by any chance can someone give me a link to the 2006 and 2005 hurricane seasonal discussion that I can`t find it. thanks Allanjeffs 00:12, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its on the Wikipedia talk pages. 96.242.128.215 00:21, July 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Can you give me the link please.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Allan, see the archives on the talk page of the wikipedia pages. Here is the talk page of 2005. Just scroll down a bit and you'll see a monthly and storm event archives at the bottom part of the orange-colored talk page header. Do the same with 2006's Talk page. You'll see the archives. And yeah, after this one, the models pick up on another storm coming into EPac 3-4 days out, possibly exploding into a major, like Daniel-to be is expected to. SHIPS doesn't take this storm to hurricane intensity right now, but intensity forecasting has been off with some EPac storms. They require less energy to intensify since most of them are small in size. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a C4 out of this, like in 2006. Ryan1000 02:33, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * thanks Ryan I agree probable Daniel and Emilia will be majors.Allanjeffs 03:58, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aside from Hawaii, which both may threaten in the long run, there's nothing else going on. They'll probrably be fish storms. None of the models foresee development from anything in the Atlantic for the next week and WPac also seems to be silent. Ryan1000 05:19, July 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah, the models are pretty consistent with this heading out way to the west. But they seem to be less aggresive then usual. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:54, July 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50%! Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:42, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think this will be one of those unexpected C4 surprises. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:23, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

And we're up to 80% ! And yeah, I was thinking the same thing. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:41, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Daniel is coming and they are forecasting a stronger Emilia right now.Allanjeffs 17:59, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

And Ryan the WPac is not thatquiet there is a medium percent chance of a formation of a tropical cyclone near the Phillippines.Allanjeffs 18:02, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Definitely going to become Daniel. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:06, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

I know there are some storms near Luzon that may organize into a TS, but it won't be that strong if it does so. Ryan1000 18:33, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Should become a tropical depression later today... and watch for the disturbance behind it too. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:02, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

probably will be td 4E at 11pmAllanjeffs 21:32, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

90% here comes Daniel.Allanjeffs 23:38, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Anytime now, 96E. And yeah, Emilia will follow behind Daniel in the next few days. Ryan1000 03:21, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
It's here. NHC doesn't even expect this to be a hurricane, though. Ryan1000 09:54, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

I think it will become a hurricane, despite its conditions ahead. 96.242.128.215 12:55, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

I believe Four-E will pull an Adrian/Eugene/Kenneth and become at least a Category 3, but I have high expectations of this becoming a Category 5. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:07, July 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * I expect a C2 out of this. Cyclone10 E-Mail  13:54, July 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * The models are really conservative on this one. Unfortunately I don't know the reason however. HWRF is pretty agressive with 4E. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:58, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * At most, the only thing I see from this system is 70-75 kt Cat 1, based on pure gut feeling and climatology. I'm too lazy to look at the models right now. Darren 23 CWC 14:43, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I guess the models really think it will be slow to organize, or think it won't be in very favorable conditions 3-4 days out. Ryan1000 17:17, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Daniel
What, did everyone give up on 4E? LOL. Anyway, we finally have Daniel. The 8am advisory says 45 mph, 1002 mbar. Forecast to peak at 70 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 15:22, July 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * 45 mph? You have to admit, that strucutre looks really good for any minimal tropical storm.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 16:11, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I guess it does. I'm probably not nearly as good at this as you are, but I'd fancy a guess of 60 mph, 65 tops. --HurricaneMaker99 17:13, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * I still have high confidence in Daniel becoming a hurricane (at least a weak Category 1, but maybe a Category 2/3). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:19, July 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * Daniel looks excellent in rainbow top image should be up to 60 imo.Allanjeffs 17:20, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * That's what the ATCF says. --HurricaneMaker99 19:16, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * About time, it was a depression for a while. I still strongly believe we will see a hurricane from Daniel, but I'm not so convinced about major hurricane strength now. Ryan1000 19:21, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * It already has a true eye. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:31, July 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * Daniel its on its way on becoming the third hurricane of the season andI think that is the gfs but it is forecasting Emilia and Fabio if the NAHS want to be on pair with the eastern pacific it need to hurry up.Allanjeffs 20:10, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is a high chance of Daniel becoming a hurricane, though it won't be affecting land anyways. Nothing else seems to be brewing. The MJO is currently stalling over the NIO, but nothing's developing there because this isn't the ideal time of year for storms to develop there. El Nino conditions are starting to arrive, but we're not officially in El Nino yet. We will be by September/October, but that doesn't mean ATL won't be able to produce a significant storm by then. A little off-topic, but the record heat wave, even where I am in Michigan, hasn't stopped, as the midwest hit 100 degree temps in many places over the past few days. That ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. is almost inpenetrable. We've had some rain every now and then, but still. Ryan1000 01:07, July 6, 2012 (UTC)

The latest ATCF bumps Daniel up to 55 kts, but based on the satellite imagery, I think Daniel should be a hurricane in the next 12 hours. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:24, July 6, 2012 (UTC)

I agree, it will probrably be upgraded soon. I'm surprised it's not one now, it really looks the part, but it's winds probrably haven't reflected it's appearance yet. Ryan1000 04:54, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks like it never became a hurricane all night, but recently they've bumped it to 70 mph. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:00, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now Dry air is entering the system if Daniel doesn`t become a system today then maybe he will never become a hurricane after al.Allanjeffs 20:11, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Relax, Daniel has 24 hours left. YE Tropical Cyclone  21:37, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * I thought he would be much stronger. I was wrong. 75-80 mph isn't out of the question, but that's it. Ryan1000 23:16, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Me too looks like this Daniel would not be a strong system after all But I think Emilia is a different story.Allanjeffs 23:35, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * I can see an eye starting to take shape. Earlier today I was skeptical about Daniel becoming a hurricane, but it looks like I could be wrong. He probably won't go any further than a C1, but I'd predict a peak around 75 mph, 80 tops. --HurricaneMaker99 23:48, July 6, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Daniel
Yep, now it's a hurricane with winds of 75mph and a pressure of 988 mbar.Supportstorm 01:10, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

the third hurricane of the Eastern north pacific has come to us base on the ATCF files.EP, 04, 2012070700,, BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU.Allanjeffs 01:12, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think creating a new header is jumping the gun a bit - remember Katia in the ATL last year, and how the ATCF upgraded it to a hurricane but the NHC didn't follow suit? I would have waited until we had official word from the NHC, but I won't remove the header unless the 8 pm advisory keeps Daniel as a tropical storm. --HurricaneMaker99 01:24, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * The RBT is from the NHC. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:36, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Really? Huh. Thanks for the info. Anyway, it's official now. Daniel's a hurricane. --HurricaneMaker99 02:51, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:56, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * He'll probrably peak here, or maybe become an 80-85 mph hurricane before weakening sometime tomorow. Ryan1000 07:50, July 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * now 80 may peak at 90 or a minimal cat 2.Allanjeffs 08:42, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * A bit stronger as of the 8 am advisory. 85 mph, 980 mbar. The discussion says that if this isn't Daniel's peak intensity, then it's very close. --HurricaneMaker99 14:50, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

Wow... I had thought it had peaked earlier because of dry air. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:38, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, I guess it was resilient. I can see Daniel peaking at around 90 mph, but I don't expect a Category 2 out of him. He certainly looks better today than he did yesterday - that eye I mentioned earlier is becoming a bit more pronounced, I think. And by the way, unless Daniel suddenly Eugenes out at the last second, this will be the first minor Hurricane Daniel. The 1988 and 1994 Daniels failed to reach hurricane strength, but the 1978, 1982, 2000, and 2006 Daniels were all major hurricanes, with 2006's Daniel - the last time this list was used - peaking as a strong Category 4. I think Ryan already explained these before, but I can't find that post in this thread. --HurricaneMaker99 17:13, July 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think Daniel is a cat 2.Allanjeffs 18:08, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * EP, 04, 2012070718,, BEST, 0, 146N, 1196W, 80, 977, HU,, up to 90mph Allanjeffs 18:27, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * EP, 04, 2012070718,, BEST, 0, 146N, 1196W, 80, 977, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 0, 20, This is Daniel's peak intensity. 96.242.128.215 18:28, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

This is likely Daniel's peak (unless he pulls a Wilma or Eugene). -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:47, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

Actually he is strengthening I say he is a cat 2 now he may peak at 105mph.Allanjeffs 00:34, July 8, 2012 (UTC)

And ATCF files agree with meEP, 04, 2012070800,, BEST, 0, 148N, 1207W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 25, 1007, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DANIEL, D,.Allanjeffs 00:36, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Daniel looks very nice on satellite, too . Maybe we'll have to wait for a C<3 Hurricane Daniel. --HurricaneMaker99 01:04, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * @HM99: I mentioned Daniel's intensities in the June archive (or Carlotta's archive) before. Yeah, it could bomb unexpectedly in the last second like Eugene, but it's now or never. It may weaken soon, rather than strengthen, but we'll see. Ryan1000 01:12, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Thanks, found it (93E thread). And now that Wunderground's switched to infrared for the overnight hours, I see what could be a bit of dry air entrainment. Could I be right? --HurricaneMaker99 01:24, July 8, 2012 (UTC)

Wow, it continues to strengthen despite forecasts. Dvorak numbers are already at 110 mph. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:17, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa, I might have been wrong about that dry air. Daniel looks excellent on infrared; Wunderground is showing a clear eye with a nice ring of pink trying to enclose itself around the eyewall. There's even a hint of white in there! And another thing I've noticed is that whenever I predict Daniel will peak, he seems determined to outperform my expectations. When I was skeptical that Daniel would become a hurricane, he did just that. When I said that I expected him to stay below Category 2 strength, he hit 105 mph a few hours later. What if I came out and said, "there's no way in hell Daniel will become a Category 5?" :P --HurricaneMaker99 04:17, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think Daniel will have a shot of reaching major hurricane status.Allanjeffs 05:31, July 8, 2012 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Daniel
Another storm that did the impossible...115 mph and 961 mbars. Looks like the 1988 and 1994 Daniels remain the only Daniels not to become (major) hurricanes. Ryan1000 08:54, July 8, 2012 (UTC)

The stories of last year's major hurricanes are repeating. Also, my forecast took Daniel to a Category 5. This might become true... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:56, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * I highly doubt that. This will likely be Daniel's peak intensity. It may get up to 120 mph, but I think this will be where Daniel will stop. From here on out, it should be weakening. It will probrably only be a depression when it passes south of Hawaii. Emilia will follow in Daniel's footsteps, possibly being stronger when it nears Hawaii, but no storm has ever struck Hawaii from the east as a well-defined hurricane. Many have threatened to do so, but none have done so. No hurricanes have struck any Hawaian island except Kauai (Iniki and Dot made landfall there, Iwa brushed by Kauai). Ryan1000 12:38, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Its still supposed to weaken at a fast clip after its off the spotlight, but, wow, what a storm this is. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:49, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Daniel reminds me of Chris a bit...as they both did not stop strengthening. I think Chris's peak intensity was a little conseratative, meaning Chris and Daniel may have peaked at around the same intensities. 96.242.128.215 14:24, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * The difference between Chris and Daniel (for me) is that Chris's intensity took me by surprise, but I had forecasted Daniel would be a major hurricane since it was an invest. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:48, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Knew that Daniel will be a major sadly it already weaken.Allanjeffs 16:42, July 8, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Daniel (2nd time)
Also, Daniel's time as a major is done. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:49, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Starting to taper off, but, it still looks good! :D  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:33, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Is it just me or does it look like it has required some annular structure? Supportstorm 20:47, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well, I don't think its necessarily annular... Anyways, wow, the SAB numbers went up on the last check. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:39, July 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Its eye finally went to sleep... look like its ready for the closing act. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:31, July 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * I just want to say that this has been my favorite EPS of the year until now he even fight forecast and become a major like most of his past reincarnations.Allanjeffs 02:47, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * All except two, to be exact. It's been pretty defiant most of it's life, but now, being at 100 mph, it should die down soon. I expect it to die two days from now, which by then Emilia will be an immensely powerful hurricane. Ryan1000 08:13, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 85 mph/987 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:14, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Even further down to 75 mph/992 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Daniel's still a hurricane! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:45, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * This thing is hanging on for dear life, and it really doesn't want to die. Normally an EPac hurricane would fade out of existince in this area of EPac, but Daniel just doesn't want to quit. Ryan1000 04:34, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Daniel (2nd time)
Daniel has finally weakened to a tropical storm! 60 knt (70 mph) winds and a 994 mb pressure. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:16, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 40 mph (35 knots) and 1003 mb. Daniel is the first CPAC storm since Tropical Storm Fernanda. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:33, July 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Daniel
Down to a TD. 35 mph, 1006 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 22:20, July 11, 2012 (UTC)

Not going to last much longer, could bring showers and thunderstorms to Hawaii. 96.242.128.215 02:03, July 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * It aint going anywhere near Hawaii. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:34, July 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Its dead the CPHC issue it last advisory love you Daniel you were fun to track.Allanjeffs 02:45, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Daniel
Well, it's technically got a near 0% chance of coming back, but in my book, it's down and out. Hats off, Daniel. You were a great storm to track. Ryan1000 08:44, July 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Daniel's circulation is still going. Getting close to crossing into the Western Pacific, but it's unlikely to redevelop unless it can get out of the wind shear it's currently in. Supportstorm (talk) 20:36, July 15, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Near Costa Rica
Here comes the pre invest 97 E future Emilia is at 10% now and will probably be a major.Allanjeffs 05:43, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

I only forecast this AOI to become a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:09, July 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * The models have been on to this one for a while.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:59, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * This has a better chance of being stronger than Daniel (four-e) may, but less than a C5. Ryan1000 17:17, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%Allanjeffs 18:40, July 5, 2012 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. The models are pretty straightforward with this thing. They're more agressive with this than they are with Daniel, but like Daniel, they keep it out to sea. Emilia is coming soon... Ryan1000 13:30, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks about as good as any strong developing system. Should become Emilia in a short time.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:56, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50% Cyclone10  E-Mail  18:01, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * up to 60% here comes future Emilia.Allanjeffs 23:51, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Can't wait to see it! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:39, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * As of now, the models don't seem any more enthusiastic with this than they were with Daniel. It may peak as an 85-90 mph storm in the future, but none of them expect Emilia-to be to become a major, ect. However, intensity forecasts with Pacific hurricanes aren't always accurate. Last year showed us some really good examples of that, especially with Eugene and Kenneth. Ryan1000 08:03, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%! Easily can become Tropical Depression Five-E. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

Up to near 100%. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:37, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

Close to becoming Tropical Depression Five-E now. 96.242.128.215 18:29, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

It already has the appeareance that it would become a hurricane I think pre Emilia would be a major.Allanjeffs 18:31, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E
invest_RENUMBER_ep972012_ep052012.ren its here and expect it to become a ts soon.Allanjeffs 19:10, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes!-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:16, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * A lot of people are saying that this will rapidly intensify.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:36, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hello, 05E. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:53, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * I predict a cat 3 or 4 as peak it has 2/3 chances of RI.Allanjeffs 20:32, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * The NHC takes it to a C2, but a major hurricane isn't out of the question. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:44, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's quite likely actually. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:56, July 7, 2012 (UTC)ç

Tropical Storm Emilia

 * We have ts Emilia base on ATCF files.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;text-align:left;">EP, 05, 2012070800,, BEST, 0, 105N, 1025W, 35, 1003, TS.Allanjeffs 00:38, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * It may intensify into a hurricane, but i'm not convinced it will explode yet. It is heading right behind Daniel and Daniel's outflow could hinder intensification in the long run. It looks just like Daniel was when it was invested, and NHC's SHIPS model, as I said earlier, isn't any more enthusiastic with 5-e than it was with Daniel. Then again, it could explode at the last minute, of course. It's too far out to tell. Ryan1000 01:17, July 8, 2012 (UTC)

The SHIPS is giving Emilia an awfully high chance of RI, in fact, the numbers are: 90% for 20 kt, 73% for 30 kt, and 63% for 35/40 kt. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:20, July 8, 2012 (UTC)\


 * What's most surprising to me is SHIPS is actually the most generous of the models. Normally they're the most conservative. They must really like Emilia, though initially I don't. Ryan1000 01:24, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now official from NHC. Forecast to peak as a Category 2. --HurricaneMaker99 04:08, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * And our next hurricane and probable a major a major in a couple of days.
 * More surprises. Emilia will likely follow in Daniels footsteps and remain at sea. Ryan1000 08:54, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * This is year is developing into one heck of a year... SAB numbers for Emilia are already and 3.0, although the floater i not up yet. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:52, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now up to 50 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:49, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Emilia should be up to 70 looks like a hurricane will form today.Allanjeffs 17:37, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now expect to peak at 120mph I say she will reach cat 4.Allanjeffs 20:41, July 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now 65 mph. Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:51, July 8, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like its on the verge of some rapid strengthening, if not already. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:46, July 8, 2012 (UTC)

Emilia will probably peak at 145 and I want to remark that the ACE of the ENP should be a lot with these types of systems.Allanjeffs 02:46, July 9, 2012 (UTC)

Now at 70 mph/995 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:50, July 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Should become a hurricane anytime now. Ryan1000 08:13, July 9, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Emilia
Emilia strength into the 4 hurricane of the season.expected to strength.Allanjeffs 09:03, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Nice to see another hurricane this season &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:34, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep, 75/987 per the latest advisory. And it's looking like she'l take off very soon. RI is almost inevitable here. Ryan1000 10:30, July 9, 2012 (UTC)

It's most certainly RI'ing right now... With a deep ring of convection and an eye on all enhancements. ATCF is right at 100 mph already. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:17, July 9, 2012 (UTC)

100 mph/977 mb already! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:11, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * It already looks like a major. Any bets on a Category 4 by the time the 2 pm advisory comes around? --HurricaneMaker99 16:40, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * And BTW, I just looked up past Emilias and found that Emilia is actually a fairly unlucky name. Out of seven uses, this is only the second time Emilia has become a hurricane. The first was in 1994, when Emilia was a Category 5. --HurricaneMaker99 16:47, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Emilia has a real shot to strengthen into a cat 5 if she continue to strength this rapidly.Allanjeffs 16:58, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Emilia just keeps on getting better. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:22, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Her intensification rate has slowed, but Emilia's still getting stronger. My Cat 4 guess was off by a long shot, but the 2 pm advisory brings Emilia to the doorstep of major hurricane status. 110 mph, 969 mbar. When Emilia inevitably becomes a major, we'll be almost a month ahead of last year's pace. Last year's third major hurricane, Eugene, became one on August 3. Granted, Adrian, Dora, and Eugene were all Category 4s, whereas Emilia is looking to be the first of the season after Bud and Daniel both stopped at 115 mph, but still. --HurricaneMaker99 21:31, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Last year was incredible. It was the first EPac season to have the first 5 storms of the season become hurricanes, the first to feature a major hurricane in every month of the season except the first one (reminicent of 2008 AHS), and had only one named storm (Fernanda) not become a hurricane, another record for EPac. While I don't think this year will match up to last year's records, I do expect it to be active altogether. Ryan1000 23:07, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * @HurricaneMaker99: You over estimated Emilia. She's only at 110 mph/969 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:19, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * I already said that: "My Cat 4 guess was off by a long shot, but the 2 pm advisory brings Emilia to the doorstep of major hurricane status. 110 mph, 969 mbar." Anyway, ATCF says that Emilia is a major (EP, 05, 2012071000,, BEST, 0, 132N, 1117W, 105, 959, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 15, 30, 1008, 200, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EMILIA, D, ), but I'm waiting until the next advisory to make a header. --HurricaneMaker99 00:55, July 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually she is now a major base on ATCF EP, 05, 2012071000,, BEST, 0, 132N, 1117W, 105, 959, HU and it Actually could strength further.Allanjeffs 00:55, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Much further. I expect 145-150 mph at it's peak, but 160 mph isn't out of the question either. Ryan1000 01:09, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * I am going to say a peak of 155 to 160 mph she looks amazing and Daniel is still hanging into hurricane status.Allanjeffs 01:18, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Emilia
Now official from NHC. At 120 mph and 959 mbar, Emilia has surpassed Bud as the strongest storm of the season. --HurricaneMaker99 02:42, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Emilia currently has a 66% of becoming a Category 4 hurricane and a 6% chance of a Category 5 hurricane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:44, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Forecast peak is 120 knots. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:09, July 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Damn, Emilia looks almost perfect on sattelite imagery. Cat 4 is nearly inevitable, and cat 5 isn't out of the question either. Ryan1000 04:32, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

ATCF currently has it at 115 kt and 948 mb. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 07:17, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

Nwe 140 mph/945 mb. Emilia is officially the first C4 in the Pacific since Kenneth last November. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:14, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

she will be down to cat 3 base on ATCF and of her satelite appeareance.Allanjeffs 19:52, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

down to cat 2.Allanjeffs 04:07, July 11, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Emilia (second time)
Official from NHC. Expected to continue weakening like Daniel is. Ryan1000 06:14, July 11, 2012 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Emilia (second time)
EP, 05, 2012071118,, BEST, 0, 147N, 1178W, 100, 960, HU, Welcome back to MH status. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:43, July 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's a Category 3 again. 115 mph, 960 mbar, what the heck?! --HurricaneMaker99 22:18, July 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Emilia is stubbornly hanging on like Daniel was (briefly). =) Ryan1000 00:18, July 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Emilia's annular structure is impressive. It's resilience and longevity is a true example of an annular cyclone. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 CWC 12:29, July 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not as annular as Daniel of 2006, but still, it is an impressive major hurricane. It'll die down as it moves south of Hawaii. Ryan1000 20:49, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Emilia (fourth time)
It already is. 105 mph, 965 mbar. I know that there isn't a "third time" header, but Emilia weakened to a C2 with the 2 am advisory, regaining major hurricane status six hours later. And it's starting to look like a ghost of its former self on visible satellite imagery. I can't see the eye anymore. --HurricaneMaker99 21:39, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah, it's powering down. It's likely going to dissipate in two days or so. Ryan1000 22:21, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">85 mph. :( Cyclone10  E-Mail  04:28, July 13, 2012 (UTC)

Not only is it rapidly falling down, but it doesn't look like it will reach the area where Daniel did. Matter of fact, it might be only a TS based on the current sattelite imagery. Fabio will likely be a hurricane soon. And also, today is the day after Emily became named 7 years ago. Since the Atlantic hasn't produced anything since Debby, it looks like Dennis's record is the only early storm record 2012 wll beat in ATL. We're far from doing that in this basin; see 1985 for most of those records, starting with Hilda. Ryan1000 05:34, July 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Emilia (2nd time)
Down to 70 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:25, July 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">And just as Fabio is upped to 70 mph. Ryan1000 16:37, July 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">And 50 mph. Cyclone10 E-Mail  04:02, July 14, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">40 mph. Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:58, July 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">out.Allanjeffs 14:46, July 15, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Emilia
Dead as a doornail. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:47, July 15, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Following Emilia
Well, some people are pointing fingers at this thing, but its not on the NHC yet. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 16:41, July 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * If anything forms it would not be nothing major as shear from Emilia should hamper strengthening.Allanjeffs 16:56, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Um, no, Emilia will be gone in a few days/out of the area. If GFS is right, Fabio will be here Thursday. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:24, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * May become a hurricane, but not as strong as Emilia. Ryan1000 23:07, July 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * 30% Cyclone10  E-Mail  00:28, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not yet invested, but will be soon. Ryan1000 01:09, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * If it becomes a hurricane I say at cat 1 will be its peak.Allanjeffs 01:20, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'll say Tropical Storm Fabio. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:00, July 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * 40% Cyclone10 E-Mail  05:51, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Now it is invested &mdash;12R.KIEWII 07:14, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">SHIPS only peaks this at 58 knots...Maybe it won't be a hurricane. Ryan1000 08:24, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

60%! Cyclone10 E-Mail  23:43, July 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">80%...Fabio is coming...And looks likely to be a hurricane now. Ryan1000 06:14, July 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 90%. Although I swear this looks like Fabio right now. It'll be upgraded real soon. Ryan1000 00:21, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

100% don`t know why they don`t name it Fabio already.Allanjeffs 05:41, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Seriously, NHC? Is "near 100%" all that necessary? It's Fabio and they know it. I think it might be found to become named (or numbered) earlier in post-season, because i'm pretty sure this is at least TD 6-E right now. But I don't know why they don't just name it. Ryan1000 08:44, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fabio
Did everyone (myself included) sleep on the job? LOL. Tropical Depression Six-E formed at the 2 am advisory, and it became Fabio about an hour ago. Expected to peak as a minimal hurricane - 75 mph winds. --HurricaneMaker99 16:16, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes the 5th hurricane of the year! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:38, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

probable.Allanjeffs 20:26, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">5th consecutive hurricane as well. Not going to be like Daniel and Emilia though. Ryan1000 20:49, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">50 mph. Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:19, July 12, 2012 (UTC)

Huricane Fabio is coming...It'll likely be upgraded by Saturday, but nothing else. Ryan1000 22:21, July 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Almost a hurricane...70 mph. :D Cyclone10  E-Mail  14:48, July 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Anytime now, Fabio...Ryan1000 16:37, July 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * should be a hurricane in the next advisory.Allanjeffs 18:14, July 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now a hurricane base on ATCF files.Allanjeffs 18:48, July 13, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Fabio
the 5th hurricane of this basin.Allanjeffs 20:48, July 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * ...FABIO BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...MORE THAN A MONTH AHEAD OF SCHEDULE... ...wow. --HurricaneMaker99 20:49, July 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 90mph we may see another major out of this.Allanjeffs 02:57, July 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now a category two! I'm not sure if Fabio can organize itself fast enough to reach major. Going to have to wait and see. Supportstorm (talk) 00:57, July 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Where is everyone? We have a Cat 2 and there have been few comments here. I'm just saying. Either way, RBT keeps it at 90 knots. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:59, July 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * There were already too many surprises... Anyways, Fabio still a C2. Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:57, July 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * At 105 mph/972 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:49, July 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Weakened slightly to 100 mph/974 mbar, but I can't say I expected Fabio to reach Category 2 intensity. I pondered if it was possible, since he had spent quite a while at 90 mph, but I didn't outright expect it. --HurricaneMaker99 21:21, July 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * I just want to say that the GFS is developing two to three ts near the east coast and even though it looks crazy remember what happen with Cindy and brett that they form of the same cold front.Allanjeffs 23:14, July 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hey guys ... I'm HurricaneOwen99's sister and he is planning a comeback for this wiki, sorry if i sidetracked this discussion. Anyway, looks like Fabio will start to weaken soon as I heard. 96.242.128.215 02:03, July 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fabio has already started weakening. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:24, July 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I didn't quite foresee it becoming a C2, but it did. 4 or 5 days out, Fabio could be hading for Californa, but by then as a remnant low. I don't expect much else in the next few days. And even so, if we get a storm or two to develop off the east coast, it won't affect land anyways. Emily became named 5 days ago, but Franklin's 7th anniversary was 5 days from today on the 21st. Maybe, if we spring into action again, we could beat him. But I won't count on it now. Ryan1000 05:58, July 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fabio (2nd time)
...and everyone are sleeping on the job...-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  01:39, July 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm not surprised, nothing's been very exceptional rescently. Ever since Carlotta, we've seen just some typical EPac July hurricanes (well, Emilia fluctuated in intensity quite a bit, something not seen every year), but nothing's been affecting land. We're starting to look like we're turning into El Nino. But the real heart of the season has yet to come. Ryan1000 03:37, July 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Actually Ryan the pacific has cooled instead of warm this last week so the Niño may be delay.Allanjeffs 04:41, July 17, 2012 (UTC)

Still, the experts are saying we have a descent chance of turning to El Nino this September or October, maybe say, a 60% chance of it. If it doesn't, next year we probrably will be in El Nino. Ryan1000 11:42, July 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fabio
Time to say goodbye...-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  02:40, July 18, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fabio
And it's gone. Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:54, July 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * The remains of what was Fabio moved into California and are finally dying away now. It did cause the wettest July on record in LA, but they only saw a trace of rainfall from Fabio. In a similar manner, Hurricane Boris of 1990 caused the wettest June on record in San Diego, but similarily, they only saw a trace of rain from him. No damage was reported. I guess we're gonna sleep for a while now. By the 1st/2nd week of August, we'll likely be awake again. Ryan1000 21:43, July 19, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:SSW of Manzillo, MX
Well, back from Florida, finally, and a new AOI shows up. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:50, July 17, 2012 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Invested. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 03:27, July 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Might only be a category 1 hurricane down the road or so, but I'm pretty sure this will become Gilma over the next few days. Ryan1000 12:18, July 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">down to 0% might not be Gilma after all.Allanjeffs 17:37, July 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">de invest.Allanjeffs 20:30, July 18, 2012 (UTC)

Nevermind...No Gilma coming here. Ryan1000 04:06, July 19, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Central Caribbean
Found this appearing 2 days ago, finally on the NHC discussion. Long range, but seems somewhat promising. "BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE AREA BETWEEN 90W AND 95W LATE SUN AND MON. THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA COULD BE THE RESULT OF A TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INTERACTING WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS LOW." <font color="Blue">Darren 23 CWC 16:17, July 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah, GFS is really generous with this wave in the long run, but even so, they only expect it to peak as a TS in the long run (1 week from now). Other models, like the Euro model, don't even see anything coming from it. But because it's so far out, we can't tell anything yet. Ryan1000 20:06, July 20, 2012 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Well that was quick, invested already.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:02, July 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is the first low that some models predicted. Attention seems to be shifting from the other low to this development. Seems possible. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 CWC 02:26, July 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * 40% here comes the 7th depression of the yearAllanjeffs 06:06, July 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * I only expect this to be a moderate tropical storm, not a hurricane, but nothing else. Oh and BTW, code red. 60%. Ryan1000 13:09, July 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Shot up to 80%.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:21, July 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Still expected to become named, but...now down to 70%. Ryan1000 12:27, July 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not so likely now. Down to a mere 20%, and expected to weaken further over the next few days. Aother 80% that busted. Wow. Ryan1000 14:48, July 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * It actually was 90L this is the second 90% bust I see on my life.Allanjeffs 14:53, July 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * 10%...it's a bust. Cyclone10 E-Mail  23:02, July 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Somehow went back up to 20% :P Cyclone10  E-Mail  16:49, July 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * And back down to 10% :| Cyclone10  E-Mail  19:21, July 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Back! Yeah, this is my first 90% bust. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:34, July 26, 2012 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
I think something went wrong, it currently has winds of 60mph... Supportstorm (talk) 14:10, July 27, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Cyclone10 E-Mail  22:03, July 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Not even close.
 * Bud - 5% - It brought beneficial rain.
 * Carlotta - 7% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Daniel - 0% - Missed all landmass.
 * Emilia - 0% - Doubt it.
 * Fabio - 0% - No damage as a TC.

Mine:


 * Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but had no impact on land.
 * Bud - 2% - Fun storm to follow, but not enough damage.
 * Carlotta - 5% - Killed two girls.
 * Daniel - 0% - Impressive major hurricane, but no.
 * Emilia - 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio - TBA - Still Active

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Mine
 * Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.
 * Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.
 * Carlotta-15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying.
 * Daniel- 0%love you but no
 * Emilia 0% meh nothing just a cat 4 in here
 * Fabio 0 % just rain to LA and nothing more.


 * Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement.
 * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you.
 * Carlotta - 10% - It caused some impacts in Mexico, but it definitely wasn't severe enough for retirement.
 * Daniel - 0% - Didn't affect any land.
 * Emilia - 0% - Starting to doubt it already.
 * Fabio - Nothing to really say here.

CobraStrike:


 * Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm.
 * Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement.

 CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

True Golden Blaze: True Golden Blaze 01:35, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta- Meh, no.
 * Bud - 1.5% Gave Mexico a little shock, but didn't do much.
 * Carlotta - 11.5% Carlotta's landfall did pull off some deaths, but not enough to get it's name crossed out.
 * Daniel - Will do nothing and die out in the cold Central Pacific waters.
 * Emilia - Some waves but no threat to land. At current intensifying rate, could get a Cat 3 or 4.