Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (July 9)
New wave off Africa, also mentioned in the Atl section. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  17:09, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * The AOI is on the TWO, located 700 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. However, development should be slow to occur over the next several days as it moves generally westwards at 10 mph. The NHC gives a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and 20% in the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:30, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't know if it'll develop or not. Might be Genevieve in the long run though but let's hope it doesn't fail! --  Steve  820  ✉   16:39, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * It'll be another disgrace to TC's. Mark my word. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:50, July 20, 2014 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
We have an investment. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:42, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * And it's getting better organized. Chances of formation have risen to 20% for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:56, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * This might be our third hurricane of the season, it better not fail. Two of our best names Elida and Fausto have fail with capital F. Hernan is another name that is really strong, I am waiting this to become hurricane Genevieve hope it does not dissappoint.Allanjeffs 20:11, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't think this will become a hurricane. Shear kicks in about 36-58 hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:16, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's down to 10% (20%). Maybe it won't develop, which is awesome since it won't be another name stealer!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:25, July 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity is very disorganized in Invest 91E, and any development will be very slow due to its large size. Chances of formation for the next five days have fallen to 10%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity in the invest has consolidated a little bit, but any more development should remain rather slow as it continues westwards. However, the NHC has upped the probability for development to 20% for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:16, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/40. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:04, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think it'll become Genevieve in a few days. I hope it won't be another disgrace to TCs. Future Genevieve, please be a hurricane!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:52, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * And as soon as I type that up, it's been upgraded to 40% (60%)! Please be a hurricane and not a weakling fail TS! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:00, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * It may have a chance, though models are not very aggressive, it is in a rather good environment for the next 5 days. I'd bet on another weak TS to be honest. Should form, but I'm more excited about the one behind it. 20:15, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think this will intensify somewhat. I would not count a hurricane, but it kinda reminds me of Henriette 13 for some reason. Now 60/80 BTW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:57, July 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope it becomes a cat 2 at least. Genevieve deserves to be used good but with a lot of invest developing close of each other might be bad for development. Allanjeffs 11:13, July 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * They shouldn't be that close and 91E will likely be the dominate one. Now 70/80, BTW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:43, July 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * This should become a depression later today and a named storm by tonight. Hopefully it becomes a hurricane!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:51, July 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * I expect this to become a minimal to moderate hurricane at most, as it heads west-northwest towards Hawaii. Like (almost) all other storms in the past, it'll probably die before it reaches the islands and it's remnants could bring some winds or rain to the big island in about a week. Best case scenario, it remains well to the south of the islands and becomes stronger than currently anticipated by the GFS and Euro. Ryan1000 22:35, July 23, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Oh my goodness, a tropical depression is near! Shower activity has increased in Invest 91E has become better organized, located 1400 mi SW of Cabo San Lucas, and with the environment conductive for additional development, there is no doubt a tropical cyclone is bound to form as it moves generally westwards at 10 to 15 mph. Chances of formation for the next two days are now at 80% and 90% for the next five! Also, the JTWC have issued a TCFA in anticipation for this invest's development. They cite animated EIS imagery as revealing deepening central convection surrounding the previously exposed LLCC, with formative banding building in the southern quadrant. As a matter of fact, a recent 0346Z SSMIS microwave image shows increased convection consolidation in all quadrants. Finally, the JTWC states there are SST's of 28 to 29 degrees Celsius and low to moderate vertical wind shear of 10 to 15 knots. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). Proximity to Invest 92E might hinder some development, but hopefully not too much. Please become our third hurricane, Invest 91E! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:51, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * How is this not a TD? I don't think it'll be that strong, shear will kick in 48-72 hours. But I get this feel it'll wind up being re-Henriette 13 for some reason. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:44, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Down to 80/80. Dud? - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:44, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope it doesn't be a dud. I want it to be Genevieve (assuming it doesn't fail), and like YE, I got a feeling it might pull a Henriette 2013.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:06, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Uh oh, Invest 91E is beginning to lose its organization, and upper-level winds will kick in by this weekend. I hate to say it, but if we do get a tropical cyclone, it might be Fausto or Wali all over again. Chances of formation have fallen to 70% for both the next two and five days. No... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:05, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * It may be a ts as upper levels winds are expect to be unfavorable by the weekend. If this becomes Genevieve expect a ts at most.Allanjeffs 18:25, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, NHC still mentions that environmental conditions are conductive but upper-level winds will strike by the weekend. Satellite data also indicates TS-force winds north of the center. Maybe it might be Genevieve? But if it does develop it'll probably only be a TS and I'm getting sick of those.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:18, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * I think it is classifiable, and will form soon, but it'll be another weak TS probs if not a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:47, July 25, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Genevieve
Well, She is here but forecast to be another fail. I am tired of all this thrash that the Epac is developing. Hernan or Iselle might be hurricanes but with all things failing I am not even certain anymore. I am sad that this name would underperform.Allanjeffs 11:24, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Genny looks like some irrelevant trash storm that no one cares about. The second (12z) ATCF is long out and this wiki has yet to be this dead when a storm gets named. Looks like about right, Genevieve will degenerate in around a day or two. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  13:11, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Advisory 2, 40 kts and NHC is calling this Genevieve's peak intensity. Knock it off, EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:20, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, knock it off, EPac! You're literally abandoning and throwing all these fine and innocent names into the trash bin! Anyways, I have a feeling that it might quickly intensify to a strong TS before upper-level winds eat it all up. If it doesn't, here comes  yet  another fail. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:51, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds are already beginning to affect Genevieve, and with shear closing in on the storm, its intensity of 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h)/1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) should be it. With the STR forecast to rebuild to its west, the storm should continue moving westwards for the remainder of its lifetime. Genny, you are such a fail! Instead of becoming something like Amanda or Cristina, you chose to follow Fausto and Wali! >:( Also, for trivia, just like Boris, Elida and Fausto, assuming this is Genny's peak, this will be her weakest incarnation to date, exceeding her previous record low of 45 knots (50 mph)/999 mbar (hPa) in 1996. But hey, at least we got eight EPAC storms before August! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:14, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * I really doubt she will strength more, upper level winds are screaming to Genevieve to come. I am sorry the name was use for this fail. Hernan sounds strong and most of the time have been a hurricane, if the invest close to her develop expect another weak ts. I knew that if a lot of invest form next to each other they would bring shear to each other.Allanjeffs 20:41, July 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genevieve's LLCC is to the west of its primary convection due to wind shear. Based on Dvorak numbers of T2.5 and a scatterometer overpass, the NHC has kept the storm's intensity. With an unfavorable environment and decreasing SST's, Genny should begin to gradually weaken from here onwards. A trough has weakened the STR steering the system, and it should continue to slow until it rebuilds in a few days. Steve, I doubt Genevieve will intensify any further due to what it is about to meet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:08, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Maybe there's still hope. NHC says that the shear should diminish in 24 to 36 hours, and if Genevieve survives until then, we could see a stronger storm than we thought we would. Maybe not necessarily a hurricane, but Genny only has to reach 50 kts to become the third-strongest storm of the season. Man, what a pathetic year it's been for the EPAC since Cristina. :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:58, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * There's probably no hope, already weakening, NHC predicts a TD in 36 hours, I think sooner. RIP in pepperonies. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  09:37, July 26, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Genevieve
"Rest in pepperonies?" I might have to use that going forward lol. And yeah, I take back what I said, Genevieve is down to a TD and the circulation is becoming elongated. To make matters worse, models are becoming less enthusiastic about 8-E... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:00, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, where does your reference come from? :P Anyway, with Genevieve, deep convection has been pulsating, but Dvorak estimates have caused the NHC to lower its intensity to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). Genny is still moving slowly westwards, but its degeneration will prompt the STR guiding it to increase the storm's speed. She tried...and became Fausto and Wali all over again! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:39, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ask HurricaneSpin. He said "RIP in pepperonies" above and I paraphrased him lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:31, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow we have yet another epic fail! I was hoping the name "Genevieve" would be used for a hurricane but I guess not. Genny should probably die out tonight but the NHC forecasts it to be remnant low by Sunday. Fausto 3.0!!! (2.0 was Wali) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:20, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wind shear is completely over Genny right now, and the LLCC is detached from the remaining convection. While environmental conditions may degenerate the storm as early as tonight, if it holds on long enough, the NHC states it could regenerate in the CPAC. Genny should continue moving westwards under the influence of the STR, now that it has become a shallow cyclone. No intensity change AFAIK. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:18, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hold on, Genevieve is starting to pull a Douglas. A recent burst of convection has occurred near the center, prompting the NHC to hold its intensity based on TAFB Dvorak estimates. Nevertheless, the system is a sheared and dry environment, with degeneration expected by tomorrow morning. However, GFS, HWRF, and GFDL forecast Genny's regeneration in the CPAC within a couple of days as it moves into a lower shear environment, while ECMWF and UKMO forecast Genny to remain a shallow remnant low for the next five days. The system is expected to be steered westwards by low-level easterly flow from a STR for the next 48 to 72 hours, but afterwards, the models disagree on whether or not Genny will continue move westwards or west-northwestwards. This is somewhat off topic, but the song Titanium by David Guetta is coming into mind. Like Doug, Genny is trying to prove shear will not let her down. She is a fighter, and not the fail some of you are calling her! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:11, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow, Genny is fighting hard! Although the LLCC is completely exposed to the west of the main convection, TAFB estimates are allowing the NHC to still maintain its intensity from my third post above! Wow! Little intensity change is forecast, and degeneration into a remnant low is expected in ~24 hours. Afterwards, however, as the environment becomes more conductive for development, Genny could regenerate later on in the CPAC; it just crossed into the basin as of the 0900Z advisory. I will also note the JTWC keeps Genevieve a tropical depression for the next five days in their forecast. The depression is moving westwards at around eight knots (9 mph, 15 km/h) under the influence of a low to mid-level ridge. After 48 to 72 hours, Genny should begin to turn more WNW, where it is expected to continue to move towards for the rest of its life. I think we definitely have another Douglas in the making... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:49, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * The first CPHC advisory still maintains Genevieve's intensity based on TAFB estimates, and it is now expected to stay tropical for another 36 hours as it moves generally westwards. Any comments? :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:55, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sorry Andrew, but I'm not really as impressed with Genevieve as you are. I mean it's cool that Genny is staying resilient, but when Douglas pulled the hanging-by-a-thread yet, it was still a tropical storm. Genny is just a tropical depression. It'll have to stick around as long as Douglas did to impress me. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:26, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's okay, I just am surprised by the fact Genny is clinging on for her dear life. Although VWS of 20 knots and some dry air is attacking the system per the recent CPHC discussion, its LLCC is now obstructed by cirrus cover from deepening convection in its eastern quadrant. As a matter of fact, PHFO suggests a slightly stronger intensity than what the CPHC reports. Motionwise, the low to mid-level STR is still steering Genevieve westwards, with the NNW turn expected in about 24 hours. I would like to point out Genny will be entering a less hostile environment in ~48 hours, so we may see some reintensification there (hopefully!). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:12, July 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm also surprised to see Genny cling on. Douglas 2.0 anybody? Hopefully it re-strengthens once it enters the less hostile environment! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:51, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Genevieve
Failbo No. 5:

''A little bit of Douglas in my life  A little bit of Elida by my side  A little bit of Amanda is all I need  A little bit of Fausto is what I see  A little bit of Wali in the sun  A little bit of Genevieve all night long  A little bit of Hernan here I am '' ''A little bit of you makes me your man ''

Sorry folks, but Genny is ding dong dead. So ends the season's fifth - and thanks to Hernan, final - fail in a row. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:47, July 28, 2014 (UTC)

You beat me to it. Just read the advisory and it  looks like Genevieve will not make a comeback. She is done.Allanjeffs 02:51, July 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would not rule on out. Really depends on 93E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:34, July 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * The CPHC has the remnants of Genny at 30%, it still has a slight chance at coming back to life guys :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:12, July 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * The CPHC said Genevieve had a chance of coming back when conditions became more favorable, and hopefully they are right! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 30%, but looks much better now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:00, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Genevieve (2nd time)
Should peak as a weak TS again.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:45, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * YES!!! I knew she could do it! Deep convection has appeared near Genevieve's center, prompting the re-upgrade! Winds are currently at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), accompanied by a pressure of 1009 mbar (hPa; 29.80 inHg). The depression is moving westwards under the influence of the southern periphery of an STR, and it will eventually turn more northwestwards in the next few days as low-level easterly flow comes into effect. With the shear over Genny expected to relax, most intensity models predict it reaching TS intensity again in ~12 to 24 hours. But the storm is only expected to reach 40 knots (45 mph) before shear kicks in and gradual weakening occurs. No word from the JTWC yet. Well, Genny sure is pulling a Doug! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:42, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yay, she did it!!! C'mon Genevieve, restrengthen to a TS! You can do it! I'd say she's the CPac version of Douglas. What a great fighter you've been Genny! :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:00, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genny's LLCC is located to the east of the primary convection, which shear is beginning to creep up on. Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from the SAB, CPHC, and JTWC have resulted in the depression's intensity being kept. A general westwards motion is expected as Genny is guided by a STR well to the south of Hawaii. With higher shear values and dry air beginning to attack as well, the depression should intensify rather slowly to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) in the next 24 hours before the environment becomes too hostile for further development. The JTWC also expects a similar westwards movement. Also, for the record, Genevive has had 17 advisories to it; this is the fourth highest number of the season, behind Amanda, Cristina, and Douglas. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:53, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm starting to not think it'll become a TS once again, but it still has a chance. C'mon, Genny! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:30, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Vertical wind shear (VWS) and some dry air continue to affect Genevieve's development. Convection is waning and becoming further detached from the LLCC. Southwesterly VWS has been analyzed to be around 10 knots per UW-Madison analysis, with 16 knot values being reported by SHIPS. Based on JTWC and SAB intensities, the depression's intensity is being maintained for Advisory 20, although a recent ASCAT pass found 25 knot winds in the southwestern quadrant. It failed to analyze the eastern quadrant, however. Genny should continue to move westwards under the influence of the building STR, with little change in motion expected. For the next 24 hours, shear conditions will not get any better, which could prompt degeneration again. Even after the conditions improve, it is still doubtful Genevieve will get any stronger, and most models now fail to see re-intensification to a TS. Genny's trying hard...and she's struggling very hard. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:45, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Genevieve (2nd time)
It could regenerate later for the third time.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:43, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genny has become a low-level swirl again. It has tried so hard just like Doug; I am not giving up hope yet. The depression is forecast to move westwards the influence of a low to mid-level ridge for the next three days before it turns more WNW as it reaches the end of the ridge. With shear values of 15 knots reported from SHIPS, most models indicate ex-Genny will stay a low for the time being. However, SHIPS really loves the depression - it predicts potential regeneration in the next 48 hours. Chances of regeneration are currently at 10% for the next two days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow this system is really trying so hard! It just won't die! I hope Genny can come back to us for a third time, it seems slightly likely. C'mon Genevieve, make one last show before dying out for good! :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:52, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Ex-Genny is now 550 mi SSE of Hawaii. Chances of formation have fallen to near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:16, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hold on, there's more!-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:38, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * She is looking really good. She might be our next typhoon as the models are showing a cat 2 with her.Allanjeffs 05:45, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Genevieve (3rd time)
Quoted from CPHC: "Thunderstorms associated with former tropical depression Genevieve have become better organized during the past 6 hours. The center of this system, which is moving westward at about 10 mph, is located about 515 miles south of Hilo, Hawaii. Latest satellite data indicate that Genevieve is redeveloping into a tropical depression, and advisories will be reinitiated for this system at 5 am HST this morning.


 * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 100 percent."

OH YEAH!!! She's not done yet! This is what you call a true fighter! And as if that is not it - TCFA! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:28, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Advisories out. Expected to cross the dateline as a TS.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  15:32, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expect this one to strength to a typhoon or a major typhoon in the Wpac.Allanjeffs 19:12, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * So much for CPHC predicting Genevieve will have 10% chance of regenerating within 48 hours...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:36, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Genevieve (2nd time)
Back to a TS.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:07, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * THIS IS JUST INSANE! How can a storm regenerate three times like that?? Even more surprising is that it only peaked as a moderate TS throughout its whole lifespan! Wow Genny, you're one of the biggest fighters I ever seen! In fact, like Allan said above, it could even strengthen to a strong typhoon after crossing the dateline. Wow!!! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:27, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Genevieve (4th time)
Genevieve pls...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:57, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * This one could actually last into WPac like Allan said before, it's extremely rare for a storm to (nearly) die in the EPac but regenerate in the WPac, though it has happened before, as evidenced by Typhoon Georgette in 1986. We'll see...though I do have to say, I'm very impressed Genevieve managed to last this long. Ryan1000 11:08, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Genevieve, don't die again! I want to see if you can survive to the WPac! You've been a great fighter, and I'd like to see you become something strong in the WPac (even though it's too early to tell if that would happen). -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:28, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * genevieve
 * what u doing
 * genevieve
 * stahp  “i liek turtlez 18:54, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Guys, calm down please. Although an 0830 UTC scattometer pass shows the LLCC was further south than the CPHC thought it was and only sampled winds of 20 to 25 knots, that doesn't mean Genevieve is quitting. As a matter of fact, albeit a weaker presentation, gradual intensification is expected from the storm in the next few days. While 15 knots of shear may be over Genevieve ATM based on UW-Madison analysis, the shear should decrease after ~18 hours based on SHIPS forecasts. In addition, SST values should be around 28C in the storm's forecast path. It may be a while, but both the CPHC and JTWC forecast reintensification into a TS in ~36 hours and then hit near hurricane intensity in ~5 days. An STR in place for the next 24 to 36 hours will dictate a generally westwards motion of Genny, and from there, it should gain latitude as it rounds the edge of the trough. What's there to cry about? Genny's tried hard for the past week, and she's clearly not done yet. As a matter of fact, she could become the first storm since Jimena '03 to exist in all northern Pacific basins! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:03, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Despite becoming ragged and elongated, an increase in deep convection has been noted in the southern quadrant of Genny. With Dvorak estimates of T1.5 from SAB and T2.5 from HFO, winds remain at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) and the pressure is still at 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). A low-level trough which developed along the ITCZ should prompt Genevieve to continue moving westwards in the short term, but deep ridging to the depression's north will ultimately take over and steer it WNW. Due to the ITCZ and modest VWS of 15 knots for the next 24 hours, Genny should witness a consistent intensity in the short term, but afterwards, relaxing shear and high SST's should prompt gradual intensification to near hurricane intensity. I will also mention on a side note that if Genevieve survives into the WPAC, it will be the first time since Dora in 1999 a EPAC-WPAC system attained TS+ strength in all three basins. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:01, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is a really impressive storm and will be the first time I tracked a 3-basin crosser in the Pacific! C'mon Genny, reach the WPac and try your hardest! Don't give up! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:00, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Genevieve (3rd time)
40 kts/1003 mbar. I'd just like to say that I don't consider this storm a fail anymore. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:04, August 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genny won't ever give up! In fact, it might even strengthen to a strong typhoon in the WPac! And this is all coming from a system that only peaked as a weak TS before initially dying while entering the CPac, and then it regenerated a couple times and look what we have now! Pretty strong fighter, isn't he? :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:05, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Forecast to take a northward turn when it enters the WPac and become a typhoon, but will remain at sea. This thing lasted quite a long time, but it's a fish storm nonetheless. Ryan1000 00:54, August 6, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Genevieve
I don't know what the hell is going on but Genevieve strengthened rapidly overnight and is apparently a hurricane now. 65 kts/990 mbar. When was the last time two hurricanes coexisted in the CPAC (Genny and Iselle, in this case)? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:57, August 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Two hurricanes co-existing in the CPac is a relatively rare event. Dylan, as far as I can recall, the last time such a coincidence happened was August 15, 1993, when Hurricanes Keoni and Fernanda were both hurricanes in the CPac. Genny is expected to cross the dateline as a typhoon in a few days, then turn north and gradually die down, while still well away from land. What's not to like? This one fought on for a lot longer than any of us expected and for the first time since Ioke in 2006, we have a Pacific hurricane that was later classified as a Pacific typhoon. Ryan1000 20:00, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not to mention this would be the first storm to exist in all three north Pacific basins since, I believe, Jimena '03. Thanks for the info Ryan, now I'm wondering when the last time three hurricanes co-existed in the EPAC, counting Julio east of 140W. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:14, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow, Genevieve is such a huge fighter. I'm glad that it appears to be a three-basin crosser, the first time in like a really long time. I root for it to become a major. Go, Genevieve, go! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:38, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Adv made it 75 knts. But this storm has hit the RI button clearly. Dvoark is up to T5.5. And check this out EP, 07, 2014080700,, BEST, 0, 137N, 1791W, 100, 965, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 90, 80, 110, 1006, 220, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,

EP, 07, 2014080700,, BEST, 0, 137N, 1791W, 100, 965, HU, 50, NEQ, 60, 40, 40, 50, 1006, 220, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D, EP, 07, 2014080700, , BEST, 0, 137N, 1791W, 100, 965, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 20, 20, 30, 1006, 220, 40, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D, That means we our fourth major of the season!!!!!! YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:49, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

Genevieve is undergoinf rapid intenisification, Like I said a few days ago most models were strengthening her into a major. With Genevieve now a major the only female in the list so far to fail is Elida. The irony is that Elida most of her predecesors were majors.Allanjeffs 01:00, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * This has been such a sexist season lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:05, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Dude she's really surprising us by her stunts! I can't believe that a storm that was originally a weak TS for almost a couple weeks is just now strengthening to a major! And Dylan I gotta agree with you lol. All of the majors in this season have been female names, when will we ever see a male major this year? :P -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   02:27, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like a Cat 4. Not one though IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:49, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Genevieve
Spoke too soon YE. Latest CPac advisory says 135 mph, 960 mbars. Dang, this is incredible. After hanging on for dear life for nearly a week, this one actually might have a chance at becoming a cat 5 out to sea. Incredible. Ryan1000 02:59, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) If Genny by some miracle makes it to Category 5 intensity before clearing the date line, it'll be the first in the EPAC as a whole since Celia '10 and the first in the CPAC since Ioke. I'm blown away right now, Genny is giving Amanda a run for its money as my favorite storm of the EPAC season so far. This is Genny's strongest incarnation to date btw (the only other Genny to become a major, the 1984 incarnation, just barely scraped the barrel at 100 kts), though I must admit that that is the highest pressure I have ever seen in a Category 4. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:03, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * 960 mbars is unusually high for a Category 4, but I'm glad Genny managed to pull this stunt on us! In fact it might even have a shot at C5 status. Wow, how incredible. And yes, this is certainly my new favorite storm of the year thus far, especially due to all the surprises it pulled on us. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:07, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan the same could be said about Bertha when it was a hurricane it has the pressure of a td. Genevieve is looking beautiful. She continues to be better organized. I am pretty sure if recon was there the pressure would be more lower. Genevieve is now my favorite storm of the season. She came from death like 3 times and its about to cross into the third basin.Allanjeffs 04:27, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * She is about to become a cat 5 hope she makes it .:PAllanjeffs 10:08, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

Typhoon Genevieve
Just crossed the dateline last night and is now 150 mph, forecast to become a cat 5 later today. Pressure is still rather high for a 4 though, at 950 mbars. Ryan1000 11:32, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

SHE'S A MANIAC, MANIAC... SHE'S OFFICIALLY A CATEGORY 5!!! “i liek turtlez 14:48, August 7, 2014 (UTC) Oh CELESTIA, WHAT IN THE NAME IS THIS? OH MY CELESTIA! FIRST STORM SINCE CELIA TO BE A 5? I'm not joking! I'm absolutely baffled by Genny! She broke the laws of physics like Pinkie Pie! :O Guys, opinions? (Stay Safe Andrew!) “i liek turtlez 14:50, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

HOW THE HELL DID THIS HAPPEN!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!??!?!?!?!?!??! A few days ago she was barely hanging on to depression status and now she's A CAT 5!?!?!?!?!?!?! I'm impressed AND MEANWHILE WE HAVE TWO BIG HURRICANES HEADED FOR HAWAII! WHY IS THE PACIFIC SO ACTIVE RIGHT NOW!?!?!?!?!? leeboy100 (talk) 15:12, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * WOW! Genny, you're one of the most dramatic and awesome storms ever!!! You came from being just a struggling weak TS nearly a couple weeks, to being a powerful Category 5!! And you also existed in three basins, the first occurrence since Dora in 1999! That's just insane! At least it's not going to affect land, so we can continue to root for Genny. :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:09, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

I know guys! WHY NOT LETS THROW A MASSIVE PARTY FOR GENEVIEVE!!!!!!!!! THIS IS 528286% MORE SHOCKING THAN I THOUGHT! What shall we do, guys? “i liek turtlez 18:18, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yeah, everyone on this wiki should party for Genny!!! That would be awesome! :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:21, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well who could've known that Genevieve would come out of the darkness of dying and failing twice into the light of being one of the strongest storms worldwide in 2014 (her pressure is 918 mbars now, 3 above Halong's 915 but it could rack up some more intensity before weakening). This is just incredible. I guess Genevieve taught us all an important life lesson: If at first you don't succeed, keep trying again and again until you do. :D Best news of all, it's long away fron any land. Ryan1000 19:16, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yeah she is amazing, she is my favorite storm of the season.  Steve the last storm to cross the three basins was Jimena of 2003.Allanjeffs 19:59, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

Well, we had John in 1994... -20 YEAR LATER- (in French accent) AAAAAAH GENEVIEVE LOL (Please, like TS John two years ago, can we have a weatherman blooper for Genevieve?) “i liek turtlez 20:32, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Genny's pressure is now down to 915 mbars, and with its 10-minute sustained winds at 110 kts (higher than Halong's 105 kts), Halong has been trumped as the WPAC season intensity champion by a storm that formed two basins over. Crazy. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:12, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, I had the feeling Genny would become a typhoon of some sort. But one that overtopped Halong? Not in my wildest dreams, sir! Winds are still at 140 knots (160 mph, 260 km/h) (1-minute) per the JTWC. Although neither the JMA nor the JTWC forecast any more intensification, I won't be surprised if Genevieve can sneak in another five or ten knots. In a way, this system is like Gillian from last year's Australian region season. Both storms, albeit weak starters, fought long and hard to become the epic wins they were. I remember back when I started to follow Genny, I thought it maybe could become a C5. And look what she did. She got what she deserved. :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:25, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Genevieve is a real epic win. Can't believe this thing would overtop Halong! And I agree Andrew, this system reminds me of Gillian from last year's Australian season. They were both very weak for a long time before exploding to epic wins! Genny, you're an awesome storm :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:00, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genny is starting to power down now. The new JMA intensity is set at 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h) (10-minute) /925 mbar (hPa; 27.32 inHg), while the JTWC has lowered the typhoon's winds to 125 knots (145 mph, 230 km/h) (1-minute) . The latest JMA shows Genny traveling generally WNW while steering clear of all land. Rapid weakening is to be expected. Looks like she's going as fast as she came! And for trivia, this is the first time an EPAC-WPAC crossover reached C5 intensity in the WPAC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:31, August 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, this still was a very awesome storm. Bye, Genevieve! I'll never forget the stunts you pulled on us! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:57, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Genny is continuing to rapidly collapse. The latest JMA update has weakened it to 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg). The JTWC have also downgraded the typhoon, with winds of 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (1-minute) . The JMA expects Genny to maintain her intensity for another day or so, before it continues its plummet to rock bottom. They forecast the typhoon to lose gale-force winds in ~72 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:37, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Genevieve
So, I knew Genevieve was going to fall fast, but she's really plunging towards rock bottom now.The JMA have lowered its winds all the way down to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg). The JTWC has also demoted Genny of typhoon intensity - winds are currently at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). Both the JMA and JTWC expect extratropical transition within 48 hours, all while steering clear of land. I'll say my farewell to Genevieve now. Hasta luego, senorita! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:15, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Shall we reward this epic storm, and Iselle for that matter, with their own archives? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:17, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, we should. They were both very epic (especially Genny) and very notable. Anyways, bye Genny, you were epic and fun to track! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:19, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Genevieve (4th time)
Continues to fall down, now it's at 45 mph, 994 mbars. Ryan1000 20:43, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * The JTWC has issued their final advisory on Genevieve, designating it as a 25 kt (1-min) tropical depression. Notice the text at the bottom here: "THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION." If Genny comes back for a fourth time... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:10, August 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * ...that would be so epic! :) Anyway, the JMA have lowered Genny's winds to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Weakening into a TD is expected in ~24 hours. I'm still amazed Genny has not even touched a landmass yet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:10, August 12, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 17)

 * Atlantic forum link: 2 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI has become TD Two in the Atlantic. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI is on the TWO, and it could gradually develop into a low pressure area later this week. Chances of formation for this system are near 0% for the next two days and near 20% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:11, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS is aggressive with this, and makes this the strongest of the batch. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:44, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope this becomes a powerful Iselle! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   22:25, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sorry about the confusion with these AoIs and there corresponding tropical waves. TWO can be quite ambiguous with which waves are which. This one is remnants of TD2 btw, currently over Central America. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  05:53, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI could gradually develop as it moves generally westwards. It is now on the NHC TWO with a near 0% of becoming tropical in the next two days and 30% in the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I believe that we might see an Iselle out of this AOI. Environmental conditions seem favorable enough, and I hope it won't be a weakling fail TS. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:51, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * We might, but we are arguably in a downward MJO phase for now, so it may have less time to develop that we normally would expect. CPAC is where it is at for now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:58, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:07, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Shower and thunderstorm activity in ex-TD Two is disorganized ATM, but environmental conditions should favor gradually development as it moves gradually westwards. I think we could see a TC form in the next several days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict we'll see Iselle out of this. Environmental conditions are favorable enough! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:33, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
60/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:46, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 97E has become better organized, and with environmental conditions are conductive for additional development, it could become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it moves westwards. Chances for formation are now at 70% for the next 48 hours but remain at 80% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:29, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is about to be declared a depression by the end of the day. I hope we'll see a Hurricane Iselle out of this invest! I'm sick of these fails that do nothing but be name thiefs (Elida, Fausto, Wali, and Genevieve for example), and even though Hernan broke the streak, I hope Iselle becomes a hurricane too! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:44, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Iselle
Hi Iselle.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:05, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, hello there! Convection has wrapped up pretty quickly in the past few hours, and TAFB and SAB report Dvorak estimates of T2.0. Due to an ASCAT pass signaling gale-force winds in the eastern quadrant, we have Tropical Storm Iselle, with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) and a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). As a matter of fact, the NHC claims that estimate is conservative. With no VWS expected to halt Iselle's development and SST's of 27-28C, we could easily see intensification over the next three days. SHIPS forecasts a 44% chance of a 25 knot increase in winds in the next 24 hours and brings it to hurricane intensity around the time. The NHC, however, is less aggressive and gives the storm roughly 48 hours to become a hurricane. Located to the south of a mid-level ridge, Iselle should move relatively WNW for the next four days, until the ridge weakens and the storm slows down. It sure is a surprise to see Iselle present already. This is the fastest date for a season's tenth named storm since Howard in 1992 - which got that storm on July 27. This is quite a season! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:48, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle should hit 70 knots (80 mph) per the NHC, slightly stronger than Hernan. Also, Iselle's formation is the fourth earliest date for an EPAC season's tenth named storm, behind only 1970, 1985, and 1992. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:26, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * I am pretty sure that if she wants to she might be a major.Allanjeffs 23:38, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here we go again! I'm not 100% sure it will be a major, but it should be another hurricane. If it RI's, it'll have a chance to become a major. But models aren't that aggressive with it, and there could be modest wind shear. Still, a Cat 1 or even 2 is doable. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:40, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Convective tops are mainly to the north and east of Iselle's center, and an upper-level trough to the NW has enhanced poleward outflow. Based on TAFB and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates have pinpointed the NHC to raise Iselle's intensity to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). SHIPS continues to indicate a 40% chance of a 25 knot increase of winds in the next 24 hours. Steady intensification to the NHC forecast peak of 70 knots (80 mph) is definitely possible for the storm in the next couple of days, given the conditions ahead of it. However, after 72 hours, SST's will somewhat cool, prompting gradual weakening. The STR should steer Iselle generally WNW for the next few days, and after that, as the ridge degenerates into a low to mid-level trough, the storm should move more westwards. Meanwhile, the JTWC has issued its first advisory on Iselle with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h); they also forecast a peak of 70 knots (80 mph) but predict slightly more rapid weakening. Hopefully Iselle becomes a hurricane like Hernan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:46, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Very deep convection and a CDO feature have both developed in Iselle. Also, an AMSU microwave pass shows a partial eyewall in the core!!! Based on ASCAT-B data, the NHC has upgraded Iselle's winds to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) and lowered its pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Snap! Just like that, we have our season's fourth strongest storm in terms of windspeeds! With warm SST's and only light northeasterly shear ahead of it for the next 48 hours, Iselle should further strengthen; it is expected to hit 75 knots (85 mph, 135 km/h) by the latest NHC forecast. However, after the next couple of days, the environment will become more stable and Iselle should gradual weaken. As the STR to the storm's north persists, most models predict a generally WNW motion of Iselle over the next few days. After that, a trough should prompt more westward motion, based on the models. Regardless of what Iselle does in the future, I am proud of her accomplishments so far, and I hope she can RI, as she has the core to do so. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:06, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF brings this to 55 knts. Things are quickly escalating. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:11, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle has almost a full ring of convection now and is beginning to develop an eye-like feature in its western quadrant. Based on TAFB, SAB, and UW-Madison Dvroak estimates of 35, 55, and 63 kts, respectively, Iselle's intensity has been risen to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), confirming the ATCF estimates. The pressure is estimated to be at 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). For the next three days, the STR should continue to propel Iselle WNW. Afterwards, an amplifying mid-level trough offshore California, along with a mid-level high northeast of Hawaii, should steer the storm more westwards. Ten knots of northerly shear is affecting Iselle from the west, which may be why convection is not doing so great there. However, after 24 hours, the shear should subside, and combined with SST's of 26C and more stable air, Iselle could intensify into a modest 75 knot (85 mph) hurricane, gradually weakening hereafter. The JTWC is slightly more conservative, with winds of 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) being reported from them and gusting to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). Their forecast is rather similar to the JTWC's. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:12, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it becomes a hurricane! You have the potential, Iselle! In fact, I want to see it try to reach Category 2 strength, especially with its well-organized core. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:55, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, despite its bonafide structure, Iselle's convection has become a little ragged and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates have dropped from this morning. Iselle's intensity has been maintained, and the NHC notes it could stall intensitywise due to modest shear kicking in. Fortunately, that shear should abate and SST's of 26C will likely support additional intensification for the next few days. Also, the expected peak intensity from the NHC has been lowered to 70 knots (80 mph). The STR to Iselle's north should continue to drag it WNW for another three days or so, before a mid-level ridge slows it down and then turns it more westwards on days four and five. The JTWC has a rather similar forecast for Iselle. If Iselle does become a C2, Steve, it's going to be a stretch. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:51, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Iselle
Hurricane #4, coming right up! 65 kts/992 mbar as of the new advisory. I definitely like what Iselle is selling us. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:40, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steve may be right after all. At this rate, we could see a Cat 2. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:52, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep she might she has another 2 days. A cat 3 is not out of the way.Allanjeffs 05:48, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not bad, could easily become our 3rd major hurricane, and it'll be out to sea as well. The rainbands from Iselle could eventually reach Hawaii, but it should remain south of them in the long run. Ryan1000 08:32, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle has become better organized over the past several hours with a more well-defined inner core and a ragged eye feature present, based on satellite images and infrared data. Dvorak estimates are all over the place, but the NHC has calculated the average to be around 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) with a pressure of 988 mbar (hPa; 29.18 inHg) - Iselle has therefore displaced Hernan as our season's third strongest storm. A STR to the NW of the hurricane should continue its generally westwards motion for the next several days, with possible acceleration due to interaction with a ridge around 130W. Allan and Ryan, I'm not saying it isn't going to happen, but Iselle is in a region of decreasing SST's and moderate northeasterly shear. This will slow down the intensification pace, but the NHC still expect an overall favorable environment for another couple of days. They forecast a peak of 75 knots (85 mph), and I'd be a little more aggressive, calling for winds of 80 knots (90 mph). I won't be too surprised if Iselle hits C2 strength, but will be rather so if it becomes a major. Eventually, dry air and more significant shear will take over after a few days, prompting gradual weakening from the hurricane. I don't really care how strong Iselle gets since it's far away from land, but I do want something decent. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:11, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ok guys, Iselle has reached C2 strength. 100 mph/976 mbars! In fact I won't be surprised if it strengthens to a major. It wants to surprise us looks like!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF update has it at 95 knts/968 mbar. Will likely peak as a major tomorrow. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:30, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's expected to peak as a minimal major hurricane soon, but Andrew, the 5-day forecast now takes Iselle towards the Big Island of Hawaii as a tropical storm, so it might not be a total fishspinner. However, if it impacts Hawaii, don't expect it to be any worse than Flossie of last year. Ryan1000 10:58, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF makes it a major. Some models do bring it towards Hawaii as a high end TS/low-end Cat 1. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:21, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Could you please post a link to the ATCF file? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:31, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Iselle
Anyway, it just became official from NHC. 100 kts/965 mbar. Now I REALLY like what Iselle is selling us (pardon the pun, I couldn't resist) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:36, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks nice, could become a little bit stronger before weakening as it approaches Hawaii. Ryan1000 16:59, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iselle looks stunning on satellite imagery, I'm a bit surprised Iselle made it this far! It needs to weaken down a lot before approaching Hawaii, in fact, the last time I saw its forecast track it took it straight into Hawaii near the end of the forecast! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:30, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle: "I SELL WIND SHEAR!"  “i liek turtlez 18:53, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow! Nicely done, Iselle! Her eye cleared out on infrared satellite imagery, and the overall presentation has become slightly more symmetric. A combination of SAB, TAFB, and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates of 102, 90, and 110 kts have prompted the NHC to call Iselle our third major! Liz, Iselle isn't selling wind shear, she selling Amanda and Cristina her talent. ;) For the next few days, the hurricane should move steadily westwards due to ridging to its north, but it should slow down as the ridge weakens. From here, it should come near Hawaii due to the potential development of a mid-level high between Hawaii and California. Although vertical shear is no longer a problem, the thermodynamic environment is becoming more marginal, which should stop Iselle's intensification based on the NHC and JTWC forecasts. However, the NHC notes Iselle could still sneak in some more intensity, and I don't doubt that. Interesting fact - the statistical models show Iselle becoming stronger in the short-term, but the dynamical models show a stronger cyclone in the long run, near Hawaii. Regardless of what Iselle does, I hope only meteorologists need to remember it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:20, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * I knew it!!!  I had the feeling that she would become a major and I was right :) but I believe she could strength a little more or mantain intensity as she is sporting some annular characteristics.Allanjeffs 23:07, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * The cloud tops of Iselle have expanded abruptly in the past few hours, and the eye has become more distinct on satellite imagery. Convectional bands are beginning to disappear based on microwave imagery, and the Annular Hurricane Index is indicating an annular structure trying to form in the hurricane. This means Iselle will weaken very slowly albeit the increasing shear and decreasing SST's around it for the next 48 hours, until the even greater shear and even cooler SST's take over. Nevertheless, both the NHC and JTWC have kept the hurricane's intensity the same due to a consistency of intensity estimates. Most models forecast Iselle to maintain TS intensity until the Hawaiian Islands. The same westwards logic I described above is expected for the next three days until the mid-level high develops between Hawaii and California, causing a gradual WNW turn. At this point, Iselle is a threat to the Hawaiian islands, but it shouldn't be too bad for them. This is one impressive hurricane we've witnessed; please don't stop for now, Iselle! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:34, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Iselle (2nd time)
So a donut now. 95 knts. Right now, it is an interesting setup. A ridge should keep it W, but a trough could cause it too accelerate WNW. Questions is how far deep will the trough dig? Models may slightly overdue it, but again, Hawaii tends to reform the LLC of weak systems either north of south. They also likely overdue 93C and this interacting. The intensity forecast is quite tricky, the statistical models show steady weakening, but the dynamic models have the storm hanging on. If the system is a pest, it could pass through the island group, or if it is strong enough, make landfall. If it's not, and this will probably happen, it'll die before reaching the islands and/or pass north of it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:21, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Iselle (2nd time)
Annular by the looks of it; 110/958. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  07:08, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

All the girl names this season have rock with the exception of Elida. I count Genevieve in the rock party because she is a fighter and may become a strong typhoon in the Wpac.Allanjeffs 11:29, August 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dang, Iselle is a pretty impressive major. It could even have a shot at cat 4 given the supreme structure of the circulation atm, but it'll be weakening soon enough. Current forecast takes it just north of Hawaii as a TS, though they'll still have to watch out for high surf and potential flooding. Ryan1000 11:56, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF make this 115 knts. Holy shit. Just incredible. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:45, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * ...and the NHC makes this 120 kts/947 mbar! Atta girl Iselle, keep up the good work! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:38, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * The EPAC does it again!!! YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:50, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * WOW! Congrats, Iselle!!! I didn't expect you to get to C4 status! This is just incredible. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:56, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Very impressive hurricane if I do say so myself. And because it's an annular storm, it could hold onto it's intensity for a bit longer than normal EPac hurricanes would, but that's not good news for Hawaii in the long run, so don't get too hyped over this one as it could potentially cause damage and deaths in Hawaii. If Iselle was no threat to land whatsoever, I'd love this thing to no end. Julio behind it is also a potential long-term threat to the archapelago, but that's not anything we need to worry about, not for another week at least. Off-topic, but I made the 2014-15 SHem betting pools a week ago, if you're bored and want to make a bet or two on your time, go ahead. Ryan1000 20:20, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Too early to care for SHEM. :P Iselle is down to 115 knts, but threats for Hawaii continue. Recon will come in tomorrow. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:06, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * One thing I've noticed is that the NHC has reverted to incorrectly rounding 115 kts up to 135 mph, instead of 130 mph like they should (115 kts = 132.25 mph). In 2012, the SSHWS Category 4 borders were extended slightly so that 130 mph was the threshold, therefore solving the conversion problem. What was the point of doing that if the NHC was just going to go back to erroneously converting 115 kts to 135 mph? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:50, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Idk Dylan, Iselle is currently forecast to continue going down and hit the Big Island as a moderately strong TS with winds of 60 mph, though it also could do something like Flossie last year and nearly die before hitting them (which wouldn't surprise me, as shown by countless past Hawaian storms that tried to hit them from the east). Ryan1000 08:47, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Except conditions are more favorable now than then. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:05, August 5, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Iselle (3rd time)
Sharp weakening upon entering the CPAC, 95 kts/967 mbar now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:07, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still should make it to Hawaii as a mid-level TS. Really only has dry air as an issue after today. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, its now in the CPac, and should reach Hawaii as a TS soon. They might feel quite a bit of impacts. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:01, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Latest sattelite imagery shows that dry air has really taken its toll on the once-annular hurricane, I'd be surprised if this is a cat 2 when recon reaches it (they're leaving from San Fran California to investigate this hurricane). Hawaii better watch out for flooding from this and possibly Julio when it follows up behind Iselle, though the latest NHC forecast takes it on a track that could have it miss Hawaii to the north, but because Julio is farther south than Iselle and has more favorable conditions (since Iselle is stomaching the dry air right now), it could be stronger when it nears the islands in about a week. Tropical Storm Watches are up for the Big Island, and flooding could be anywhere from 4 to 8 inches, with isolated peaks that could be twice as big. Ryan1000 00:44, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'd just like to mention that someone created a satirical Hurricane Iselle Twitter account. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:29, August 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * She might be at most 45 to 50mph storm when it reach Hawaii its rarely that a storm makes landfall in Hawaii. The same might happen to Julio.Allanjeffs 07:38, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Down to 80 knts. Conditions are improving though. Should not weaken that much anymore. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:50, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Allan, if Iselle manages to hang on to TS intensity when it hits Hawaii, it would actually be the first tropical storm to ever make landfall on the Big Island, as every other storm weakened to a depression when it hit (Flossie last year was forecast to do so as a 40 mph storm but it chickened out and missed a landfall on the islands completely). Flossie did still bring some welcoming rain to them however, some flooding was reported but nothing was too severe. I expect the same to be with Iselle, though hopefully Julio isn't so strong when he gets there. Ryan1000 19:45, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict that Iselle will weaken to a depression right before it hits, because a tropical storm landfall in Hawaii is so rare. It's still possible it might make landfall as a TS though, a very rare occurrence. Hopefully Hawaii won't feel a lot of impacts once Iselle arrives. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:33, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Why will it weaken so much? It has been intensifying as of late and is up to 80 knts. I think at this point it is more likely to be a hurricane at landfall than a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:21, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised Iselle has managed to hold her own in the only marginally favorable CPac environment. It's 90 mph now, and hurricane warnings are up for all of the big island, TS warnings go northwards to Oahu, and a TS watch is up for Kauai. Residents are stocking up, hopefully it won't be too bad. Ryan1000 03:02, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * It could even make landfall as a hurricane now, that's just insanely rare. Hopefully Hawaii is prepared for this nearly once-in-a-lifetime occurrence! (maybe it's not that rare but who knows?) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:11, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually, it'll more likely make landfall as a strong TS. It appears to be weakening, down to 80 mph/986 mbars according to CPHC. Hurricane warnings are still up though. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:13, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF keeps it at 70 knts. It's around 15 hours to landfall and is about to enter some very warm water. Granted, the Great Hawaiian Shear is kicking in, but it has not been too strong thus far. It looks pretty good overall. Idk, it's gonna be close. Still, this could be very bad. Heavy rains, waves, high winds (Hawaii homes are not very sturdy), lighting and power outages. Main concern is the Big Island (could see some 100 knt+ plus wind gusts in higher terrain, which there is a ton in the Big Island. There is even snow on the highest one, Mauna Kea), but all islands are under a TS warning. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:52, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Most of the "great shear" is actually north of Iselle and it's not expected to cut it short of being at least a strong TS at landfall. The Big Island is the main area under threat from Iselle, though the latest track from Iselle on sattelite imagery shows a slight jog due west. If this continues, it might end up just clipping the southern end of the Big Island (which would be good news for them, as most buildings in Hawaii aren't meant to withstand hurricanes), but regardless of how high the winds might be, my biggest concern for the Big Island remains the heavy rains Iselle will bring, which could reach 16 or more inches in isolated locales on the peaks of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. I don't expect the other islands to get much from Iselle other than some isolated rain showers and high surf, but still, Hawaii better be on the watch from this. Residents are stocking up and ready to ride out the storm. Stay tuned, this could get nasty... Ryan1000 19:07, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * The ATCF puts this at 18.7N. South Point is at 18.9N. It should hit Hawaii, given it has .2 N to gain and about 11 hours till landfall. It's been gaing .4N per advisory cycle as of late. The mountains could spit it out though, and may cause a SSW motion after landfall. Yes, the Great Hawaiian Shear is moderate, but SST's get warmer, and at best, it'll be a 60 knt TS landfall. If convection re-fires, it'll be a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:45, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Part of the southwestern eyewall has collapsed, so it's more likely now that it'll be a strong TS at landfall, but if convection re-fires near the center like you said, it also might hang on to minimal cat 1 at landfall with 75-80 mph winds. While the Big Island isn't very "big" compared to most hurricanes, Iselle is rather small for a hurricane, and you're right YE, the two nearly 14,000 foot tall volcanoes on the island could shred up Iselle's small circulation and kill it before reaching the other islands, which would be good news for them, but bad for the Big Island as that would squeeze all the rainfall out of Iselle and cause flash flooding. Ryan1000 20:04, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yea, looking at it now, it is probs a 55-60 knt TS at landfall. It may even be downgraded to a TS at next adv, based on recon, though I'd lean towards keeping it as a hurricane. Regarding the mountains, I doubt it'll be enough to kill it. Might send it south and cause the MLC and LLC to separate. Remember, it'll be over it for just a few hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:36, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually, the new advisory still keeps it as a cat 1, though slightly weaker now, down to 75 mph and pressure rose to 991 mbars. Forecast to make landfall on the Big Island as a 65 mph storm, which, while not a hurricane, could still be enough to cause some wind damage, not to mention the flooding rain that'll come along with it. Although it won't be over land for long, considering the rather small size of Iselle's circulation, being over the Big Island for even just a few hours could disrupt it enough as to where it won't threaten the other islands that much, if at all. Ryan1000 21:05, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * It has onshore in 9 hours as a 60 knt TS. So, you're incorrect there. Iselle's circulation isn't that small. It's about average. That's why it's been able to withstand so much. As for weakening over land, I still disagree it'll dissipate it inland. There's still good agreement it'll come offshore as a 40-50 knt TS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:12, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ah, my bad, I just came back from checking the unisys best track, it wasn't updated with the new advisory, which weakened it slightly to 75 mph. Eh, there's not much difference between 65 and 70 mph anyways. I haven't seen a hurricane hit Hawaii from the east before, but since it is a rather small island chain, an oncoming hurricane probably won't be deterred by their mountains as much as they would from a place like Taiwan, Cuba, or Hispaniola. Ryan1000 21:23, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Recon reports indicate that it may have intensified slightly. Iselle refuses to quit. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:25, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hawaii especially the island where is going to make landfall has big peaks it might disrupt the circulation. not destroy it but make damage to it.Allanjeffs 23:50, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, you may be right YE, convection has re-fired near the center over the last few satellite frames and Iselle's winds may actually go back up to 80 mph by the next advisory . EDIT:Intermediate Advisory 31A is out, and it looks like the winds did go back up to 80 mph. Stubborn little bitch... Ryan1000 23:52, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * And it might even make landfall as a hurricane now. Yeah, it does seem to be such a stubborn storm. Prepare, Hawaii! Let's hope it won't be a destructive storm for those Hawaiians. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:49, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still looks like it's holding steady, but may be jerking a bit south. It could after all pass just south, meaning no landfall, based on radar. Satellite suggests it may be otherwise. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:37, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Even if it only clips the southern end of the Big Island, most of the moisture is north of the circulation, so flooding will almost be a definite either way. It's very unlikely Iselle will miss a landfall completely, unless it pulls the trick Flossie did last year (which doesn't seem likely at this point). Ryan1000 01:52, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * If it continues on its course per radar, it'll pass just north of South Point. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:15, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks very elongated and falling apart. Down to 65 knts. Recon should find it weaker, and thus, I'd be surprised if it is still a hurricane at landfall. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:12, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Iselle has clearly been hanging on, just like Genny. Actually, the last recon flight found winds of 72 knots, but the CPHC lowered the winds and pressure to 992 mbar (hPa; 29.30 inHg) to compensate for a ragged satellite apperance. It will be a sretch for Iselle to regain any intensity because of shear and the terrain of Hawaii, although SST's could promote some reintensification. The STR to the north of the hurricane should cause it to move WNW and slow down for the next couple of days, so I think landfall is very likely for Iselle. What I worry most for Hawaii is the fact that its mountainous terrain could actually boost the wind and rain effects from the hurricane. Much of the Big Island will shortly experience gale-force winds, spreading to Oahu, Maui, and eventually Kauai. Rainfall of five to eight, possibly even twelve inches, could cause serious landslides in Hawaii, and this isn't good for a region where some buildings can't withstand the power of these monsters. If you're by the coast, watch out for some heavy surf and a minor storm surge. I see little reason to believe why Iselle won't make landfall over the Big Island as at least a moderate TS, and this could be a big event for them. Also, a little trivia - this is Iselle's strongest incarnation on record, beating her 1984 predesscor by 10 knots. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:41, August 8, 2014(UTC)

Tropical Storm Iselle (2nd time)
Sorry friends Iselle weaken to 60 kt even though is about to make landfall in the big island. Mountainous terrain of the big island may disrupt the circulation. Like Dr. Masters say in his blog Iselle might move in the highest peak for a storm not even the mountainous terrain of Hispañola compares.Allanjeffs 10:55, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Something very interesting meteorologically is happening. Based on radar, it finally looks to be coming onshore, but I'm waiting for the 12z ATCF fix. If not, this could miss landfall. Looks the mountans are messing with it as I feared earlier. It's almost stalled, which makes flooding much much worse. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:39, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * According to the CPHC, it has made landfall! YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:10, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Heh, so it finally made landfall. Hopefully the residents of Big Island will ride out the storm without any problems, especially due to the rareness of the Hawaiian landfall. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:07, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well YE, looks like I was right from before, the high mountains on the big island did deprive Iselle of all of her deep convection. She's now staggering west south of the other islands, and will likely die tomorrow. Also, she nearly fell flat on her face before landfall and rainfall wasn't as bad as it could've been. Flooding could still be a concern for some places, but they've probably seen worse from the monsoon rains that hit them almost every year. Ryan1000 21:26, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * I said it too. The mountains of Hawaii are really tall some peaks are even taller than the ones of Hispañola. The center of circulation of Iselle is devoid of convection and it might be declare a remnant soon if convection does not return.Allanjeffs 22:09, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * The volcanoes did take their toll on Iselle. Lots of shower bands are still present on satellite imagery, but the core structure has been stripped away. The weakening of the STR to its north will cause the storm to slow down for the next day or two, before accelerating under the SW periphery of a new high-pressure area. Winds are down to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) with a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg). TS warnings are still up for Maui, Oahu, and Kauai, where downed trees and power lines have been reported in the latter. Well, Iselle has just become a huge record breaker. For the first time since Iniki, gale-force winds have been noted in Hawaii from a TC and the Big Island has witnessed their second TS landfall in history. I feel glad Iselle powered down quite a bit before unleashing her effects on the region, or else it could have been much worse. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:02, August 9, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Iselle
It happened. All deep convection has been stripped from Iselle and no Dvorak estimates could be obtained. NOAA buoy winds suggest all that is left to this once grand system is a remnant low. Winds are down to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) per the CPHC. Most models forecast ex-Iselle becoming a trough by Monday. However, she's not quite done yet. Additional rainfall of one to two inches can still be expected in some regions of Hawaii, along with diminishing surf. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:50, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * It doesn't seem overall effects were that severe for Hawaii from Iselle. Reports suggest there were some downed trees and power lines, as well as minor sreet flooding and roof damage, but that's about it. Overall, it was a rather minor storm for the islands in terms of impacts, and no deaths were reported from Iselle. Ryan1000 11:00, August 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Luckily it wasn't as bad as I thought it would been. It was still a very rare storm though. So long, Iselle! It was great tracking you even though you caused Hawaiian impacts! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:59, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle's remnants are still active 250 mi WSW of Lihue. Atmospheric conditions are unfavorable for redevelopment, as I don't expect anything else from the system as it keeps trucking westwards. Chances of regeneration are currently near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Bye sweetie thanks for the show.Allanjeffs 10:40, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle's remnants are off the TWO. Thank you for your very interesting performance, Miss Iselle! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:13, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Bye Iselle, thanks for the entertainment! :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:21, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 19)
Left Africa yesterday. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Atlantic forum link: 3 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * HWRF devlops this into something strong by day 5. Currently in the EPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:06, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope this becomes something, but the wave is going to develop very gradually. It has a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance for the next five days per the NHC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:32, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * If the above invest becomes Iselle, this might have a slight chance of becoming Julio but I wouldn't count on it. Development should happen only slowly. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:35, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Showers and thunderstorms are rather disorganized in the AOI, and any development of it will be gradual as it moves westwards at 10 mph. The system is on the TWO with a near 0% chance of formation for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:32, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * In my opinion, gradual development will result in Julio in a few days. C'mon, AOI! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:46, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/40. Could be somewhat strong as well. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:43, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Whoa! Despite disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, conditions are conductive for some gradual development over the next few days. Chances of formation are now at 30% for the next 48 hours and 70% in the next five days. I hope another hurricane comes from this! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:12, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
40/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:17, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope another hurricane comes from this :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:56, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * It may be disorganized, but environmental conditions will favor a TD by early next week from 97E. I don't know what to expect, however. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * SHIPS make this a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:26, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has become better organized! At this rate, we could see a TD by tomorrow morning! Chances of formation are now at 60% for the next two days and 90% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:51, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Models are very aggresive with this one. They are showing a major of Julio.Allanjeffs 05:51, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * 97E has changed little in organization over the past several hours, but it still has huge potential to become a TD. Allan, since this invest is right behind Iselle, I personally believe it could struggle a little to intensify. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:13, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really think we could see a major from future Julio. 80% for the next 48 hours and near 100% for five days, wow, I've never seen such a certain 5 day outlook before!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:32, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * 90/100. Models have came down slightly, but could be very powerful when it nears the islands. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:22, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of it becoming something powerful. It's in favorable conditions and I expect a depression to form by tonight! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:32, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity in 97E is closing in on the center, but the overall structure of the system is rather disorganized. Nevertheless, I won't be surprised if advisories begin to get issued at 2100Z. Also, the JTWC has issued a TCFA on 97E. Located at 14.1N 115.3W, 271 nm south of Clarion Island, MSI reports the LLCC is consolidating, and a 1549Z SSMIS microwave image shows most of the invest's convection is in the western quadrant. With low VWS, good outflow, and conductive SST's, they also hint at TC development. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:24, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten-E
30 knts. Forecast is tricky, but it will likely be a hurricane. Shear (early on) and SST's upwelled from Iselle (later on) could limit intensification. A long-range Hawaii threat, and if the CMC run verifies, a trough could allow for it to pass close to Kaui. I would not bet on a major, but hey, Iselle did it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:25, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julio
The new kid, could be our 4th MH of the season. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  07:12, August 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * As you would expect from EPac. :) I expect it to become a strong major following Iselle towards Hawaii, but it won't be affecting them until a week from now, if not later. Ryan1000 12:03, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * There is some shear which could very well get in the way for another 36-48 hours. Thereafter, it should be very favorable, so yes, it could become a major then. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:33, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * I also expect Julio to be a major. Environmental conditions are very favorable and I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches Iselle's current strength by the end of the week. Hopefully it becomes a major! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:58, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Julio has been pegging at 50 kts for a while now. The forecast peak is 75 kts, down from 90 kts yesterday. We could still see a hurricane here, but I'm not sure about a major :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:47, August 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't believe this will be a major but it might but it has two days I believe before moving into the cold wake of Iselle.Allanjeffs 17:04, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * It has 5 days over semi-favorable conditions. It could become a major, but the intensity forecast for this is quite tricky. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:59, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Julio has strengthened to 55 kts (65 mph)/998 mbars, personally, I'd give a 15% chance for it to reach major status. It's not out of the question but it still seems slightly possible. It will probably be a hurricane by tomorrow but I predict a peak at Cat. 2 strength with the slight shot at major status. Go, Julio, go! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:57, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Be careful what you wish for, Steven, for Julio could threaten Hawaii like Iselle is doing currently. Ryan1000 00:46, August 6, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Julio
65 kts/989 mbar. Fifth hurricane of the season, and the first one named Julio since 1990 (which is the only other Hurricane Julio to date). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:50, August 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * NHC is now pretty confident that this will go north of Hawaii in the long run, which is good news considering they'll be taking some flooding from Iselle in a few days. Ryan1000 20:05, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Luckily it might miss Hawaii to the north. Now, we can start rooting for it to get strong, hopefully it becomes a major even though that seems a bit unlikely at this point! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:35, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Forecast track has sifted south. I don't think this will become a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:16, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Neither do I, but it'll still likely miss the islands. Surf could be an issue on parts of the northern shores but I don't think Julio will make a landfall on the islands like Iselle will tomorrow. It's still kinda far in advance and things could change, but I already have enough bad feelings from Iselle...let's cross our fingers on Julio. Ryan1000 03:08, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I am also starting to not think this would be a major, but luckily it's going to miss Hawaii! Might bring some rough surf though. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:13, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would not be so sure on it missing Hawaii. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:38, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

Well, there's a chance it might not head as far north as NHC currently anticipates and hit Hawaii in the long run, but I hope that doesn't happen. Btw, Julio is now at 100 mph. Major hurricane status might not be out of the question after all. Ryan1000 11:48, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's now up to 105 mph, so maybe we could see a major out of it? It'll probably only be a borderline major though, peaking around 115 mph according to my predictions. It seems to be a slight threat to Hawaii but luckily it's not going to make landfall like Iselle is about to do. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:15, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF keeps this at 90 knts. Still has a shot to be a major though. Why is everyone so discounting Hawaii? It should brush it to it's north, but maybe require TS/Hurricane watches. NHC track IMO is too far north. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:47, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio continues to become better organized I am sure it can strength more as condtions are not that bad the NHC has been pretty conservative with him. I can see an upgrade to cat 3 in the next advisory. I doubt it affects Hawaii though.Allanjeffs 23:49, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree Allan. Tel me NHC, how is this not a major hurricane? YE, I'm strongly discounting an actual landfall from Julio, the northern shores of the islands will see some high surf or rain showers but the center of Julio is probably not going to hit (unless it tracks much further south than NHC currently anticipates, which I don't expect to happen). Ryan1000 23:58, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * There is more uncertainty than usual. It should pass a little south of the NHC track IMo, but still somewhat north of Hawaii. NHC made a mistake by considering the SAB and TAFB estimates, hence why it is 90 knts, rather than a Cat 3. Convection somewhat warm as well. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:14, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * When will it be upgraded? It looks exactly like a major at this moment. It has a perfect eye and just looks awesome on satellite imagery. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:52, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * For all intents and purposes, it is one right now and should be upgraded ASAP: EP, 10, 2014080800,, BEST, 0, 173N, 1384W, 100, 966, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D, I.E 115 mph and 966 mbars. Ryan1000 01:03, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

I was just about to say Ryan, the 0z models are initializing Julio at 100 kts so we should expect an upgrade at the next advisory. BTW, where did you get the ATCF info, just out of curiosity? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:05, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, I assume you know that the homepage for the NOAA ATCF is here, within that, you'll notice a lot of subsections, click on the subsection that says "fix/" to get the latest "fixed" advisory and position on the storm (you may have to open it in a computer program like Microsoft Word) then scroll down to the very bottom since it includes all of the advisories on the storm. For example, Julio is fep102014, which is fixed epac storm 10 (Julio), year 2014. On the latest on Julio, it shows 102 knots btw. Ryan1000 01:25, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Julio
Actually Ryan I wasn't aware, thanks for the information! Anyway, Julio is officially a major per the NHC. The next advisory will be issued by the CPHC. Julio is the third major in what, four days? The northern Pacific Ocean as a whole has been going absolutely bonkers this week, what with Halong in addition to the EPAC/CPAC's trio of success stories (Iselle, Genevieve, and now Julio). This has been an interesting year so far and will continue to be such. NHC says that Julio is annular now, btw; how often is it that two or more annular hurricanes form in the same season? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:57, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Eye temperatures have warmed in Julio's eyewall and convection has gotten a little stronger. Based on Dvorak estimates, the NHC has upped Julio's winds to 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h), accompanied by a pressure of 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg). And yes, the hurricane is rather symmetric; it must be trying to pull an Iselle. Due to a lack of change in SST and shear conditions, Julio should hang on there for another few days before its annular structure gets killed by a contrast of warmer SST's and increasing shear. The hurricane should move generally WNW under the influence of the STR to its north and then turn westwards as the ridge gets stronger. This is definitely something I did not expect from Julio. Maybe it's the MJO, but really weird things are going on right now in the Pacific. And Dylan, remember 2011? Adrian and Dora both were annular for a little. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:55, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * The EPac is getting crazy with all these majors. This is the third major in less than a week! Hoping it'll avoid Hawaii, they don't need another hit right after Iselle. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:09, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually I just saw the forecast track and it takes it north of Hawaii, so luckily it'll miss the Hawaiians. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:14, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Julio (2nd time)
Down to 90 knts per latest advisory. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:26, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks like the remains of Iselle could shear this as it heads northwest, Hawaii will probably get off easy from this. Ryan1000 21:31, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio is still very organized, and a clear 15 nm wide eye is visible on satellite imagery. Based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from the JTWC and SAB, along with numbers of T5.3 from UW-Madison, the CPHC still holds winds of 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) with a pressure of 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg). Julio is currently being steered WNW by the STR to its north; the models get a little crazy in a few days when a gap in the trough occurs. With shear beginning to build up around the hurricane, it should start to gradually weaken. While Julio doesn't seem to pose that great of a threat to Hawaii, interests there should still monitor it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:11, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio's eye is beginning to get a little cloud-filled based on satellite imagery, meaning dry air could kick in very soon. Based on a variety of Dvorak estimates, the hurricane's intensity has been lowered to 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h)/979 mbar (hPa; 28.91 inHg). Due to a weakening in the STR north of the Hawaiian islands, many of the models are shifting their trajectory for Julio further north away from the region. With increasing VWS and SST's of 26-27C in the hurricane's forecast path, gradual weakening is still to be expected for the time being. It looks like Hawaii is about to get spared from being drenched...again! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:59, August 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, luckily Hawaii is going to spared again. They don't need another potentially destructive storm approaching them. Anyways, Julio was a fun storm to track, especially since it barely made it to major status. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:01, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Recon data found winds of 95 knots (110 mph) in Julio. Combined with various Dvorak estimates, including the JTWC and SAB, the hurricane's winds have been maintained, but it's pressure has been risen slightly to 980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg). The weakening STR to Julio's north and a digging upper-level trough NW of Hawaii will allow it to continue its WNW motion. Most models take the hurricane to the north of Hawaii, but heavy surf along the state's northern and eastern coasts can still be expected for the next few days. SST's of 26C should not be a problem for Julio, but increasing VWS associated with the trough could prompt Julio's gradual weakening. Of note is the fact the latest CPHC forecast maintains Julio as a strong TS for the next five days. This could help it get a strong boost in its ACE. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:30, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio's eyewall has become less defined, and all Dvorak estimates are now at T4.5. Thus, the hurricane's intensity has been lowered to 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h) with a pressure of 982 mbar (hPa; 29.00 inHg). Julio is moving more NW now, with a northwards turn expected in ~4 days due to the influence from a mid-latitude trough. VWS has increased to 18 knots over the hurricane, which should increase the rate of weakening. However, the CPHC keeps it at hurricane intensity for another day or so before bringing it back down to TS intensity. Well, even if Julio does not do anything more, I would like to point out it is the earliest fifth major hurricane in a season since Frank '92. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  06:01, August 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ok. ok. I think Julio is a hit with the ladies. He had Genny, Iselle, Bertha.... (and oh GOD knows what Bertha is doing to the UK right now... :o) Agreed?  “i liek turtlez 19:49, August 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Liz, Bertha's remnants might already be approaching the UK, and since you live there, stay safe! Anyways, Julio was an impressive hurricane, and it appears to be in a weakening trend at this moment. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   02:44, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Ex-Bertha already hit the UK. Anyway, with Julio, despite a well-defined LLCC, it is becoming difficult to locate on visible imagery and the eye has basically collapsed. Dvorak estimates are down to T4.0 based on NESDIS imagery. Consequently, the CPHC has lowered the hurricane's winds to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) with a pressure of 986 mbar (hPa; 29.12 inHg). Julio is still moving NW, but it will soon come under the influence of SE flow from a trough, which should prompt a more NE movement over the next few days. During this time, the hurricane is bound to enter a region of SW shear and increasing dry air. Extratropical transition is expected in ~120 hours per the CPHC due to Julio losing its warm core. At this point, heavy surf should be all Hawaii receives from the system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:00, August 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, it looks like Julio is beginning to collapse and should become extratropical by the end of the week. Bye, Julio, luckily you missed Hawaii, unlike Iselle! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:22, August 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * High clouds now obstruct Julio's center, obscuring the LLCC, and a 15Z SSMIS microwave image reveals most of its strongest convection is in its NW quadrant. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from SAB and JTWC, as well as T4.5 from the CPHC, the intensity of Julio has been lowered to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) with a pressure of 988 mbar (hPa; 29.18 inHg). Westerly winds should steer the hurricane more NE from its current NW motion in ~4 days. Although SST's will remain conductive for the next few days, increasing SW shear should prompt Julio to continue its gradual weakening phase. Afterwards, decreasing SST's and even more shear will quicken the pace of weakening. Swells in Hawaii from the hurricane will continue to diminsh today. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:06, August 12, 2014 (UTC)

August
Welcome to August in the EPac! I hope it'll become more active here and hopefully we'll see another major! I predict 6 depressions, 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane in the EPac for August. Let's make it an epic month! :) (Oh, and it'll really help if we archive the older discussions that are about storms that died out, I'm having some trouble navigating this page) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:55, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Steve, I was going to wait until 0000 UTC to make this...you could not wait another four hours? Anyway, I predict 8 depressions, 7 storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of around 50 units. The EPAC should turn around this month like it did in 2009! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:13, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * I couldn't wait another 4 hours because I wanted to beat you to the punch. :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:58, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Tropical Wave (GFS 16 days out)
Just about to roll offshore. GFS already bombs this into a major, and develops it by day 10-12. So, long range. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:29, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't count off development, but any formation will be rather slow to occur. Chances of formation are down to near 0% for the next 48 hours but up to 20% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:35, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * I personally see a TC forming about a week or two out. Chances of formation are up to 30% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:18, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now on the TWO, the AOI is rather disorganized. Although conditions are unfavorable for development for the next couple of days, it is moving into a region of more conductive conditions. Chances of development remain at near 0% for the next two days but increased to 50% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:11, August 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * We will probably see a Karina out of this by mid-week. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:38, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

Up to 10/70, it continues to look better. Karina could come out of this by Thursday/Friday-ish and hopefully we'll see another hurricane from this! And, I decided to make a poll about whether you guys expect to see something out of this or not. I just want to lighten up the forums a bit, so enjoy the poll! :) (Don't complain if you don't like it):

Will this invest become Karina sometime in the future, and will it become a hurricane? Of course it will form, and I predict a hurricane! Of course it will form, but I only predict a tropical storm out of this with maybe a slight shot at hurricane status Of course it will form but it will only peak as a weak/moderate TS Of course it will form but it's too early to predict intensities It might form, but I'm not 100% certain I'm not sure if it will become a TC I really doubt it will develop (Seems like a very unpopular opinion)

-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:00, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Invest'd. Has moderate wind shear to face and SST's may become cold in 4 days pending track. Still, has Kelvin Wave help, and should become a tropical storm if not a minimal hurricane. Maybe a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:59, August 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's also rather large in size, which could slow down development as well. However, I still have high hopes this will become something strong, at least a weak hurricane. Due to the conditions 99E's in right now, I am a little uncertain it is guaranteed to develop in the first place. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:06, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Thanks for voting in my poll guys! Let's see if we can get more people to vote in my poll. Anyways, it's up to 20/80, tropical cyclone formation is looking likely this week out of this invest. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:24, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Has a very good chance. It'd def become a Cat 4/5 if shear can decrease. This seems like one of those systems that find a way to become at least decently strong despite not being forecast to. Still, shear is strong enough to hold off development for a while, and like Julio, should intensify only gradually at first. Still, it is fairly large, so it should fight it off eventually and become at least a mid to high-end TS, maybe even a Cat 1, 2, or even 3 hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:32, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * I expect it to become a decent hurricane out to sea, maybe even a strong major. Ryan1000 20:31, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * 40/80. Needs an LLC though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:44, August 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's become much better organized; as a matter of fact, it looks like a TD to me already. I think we're looking at at least a C1 hurricane from this. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:13, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Appearance isn't everything. I see nothing to suggest we have a closed LLC. Has this even warranted Dvorak classification yet? It looks good though ill admit. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:28, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah this invest looks very good. We could very well see a Hurricane Karina out of this system since conditions are favorable enough in the long term.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:46, August 12, 2014 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Hawaii
I'm not sure if this is a continuation of another AOI, but its 1000 mi southwest of Honolulu. Don't expect any development from the system, as its fairly disorganized and a digging upper-level trough will make conditions unfavorable for development. Chances of formation are currently at near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:16, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Bleh, this won't develop. I have a feeling that it might be the remnants of Iselle instead of a new AOI. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:40, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * No, this was another AOI. It's off the TWO anyway. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:11, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Oh, I thought it was Iselle's remnants due to their similar positions. Anyways, bye short-lived AOI! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:25, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:CMC model storm
10/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:46, August 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * Development is going to be a little slow with this AOI compared to 99E. If anything, I would expect a CPAC storm from this. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, August 12, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * All - 0%

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * 4) Douglas 0% Was okay.
 * 5) Elida 0% Fail
 * 6) Fausto -3.14% an epic epic epic fail.
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

I agree with Dylan. It's way too early for this section, but I'm still gonna post mine anyways:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 16:41, August 10, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.
 * Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired.
 * Elida: 0% - Epic fail!
 * Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said
 * Wali: -∞% - See Fausto
 * Genevieve - 0.1% - Very freakin awesome, especially because it was a weak TS for a couple weeks before exploding into a Category 5!!! Wow! It didn't affect land though but it gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness.
 * Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen.
 * Iselle: 10% - Rare Hawaiian storm, but little impact was reported.
 * Julio: 0% - Not looking likely to affect any land.


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's mine (because I want to get a head start (Sorry, Dylan)): (i'll remove the underline when we're further in the season)
 * Amanda: 0%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land.
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- currently active
 * leeboy100 (talk) 17:21, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

Eh, we don't have any worthy names to retire yet, but I can't resist retirement predictions, they're fun as hell:

East Pacific:


 * Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic.
 * Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said.
 * Douglas - 0% - ^^
 * Elida - 0% - Nothing of note.
 * Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more?
 * Genevieve - ?? - Incredible for how it went from dying twice to becoming a cat 5, but caused no effects on land...as of yet.
 * Hernan - 0% - Hey, at least we finally got another hurricane...
 * Iselle - 8% - Rather minimal impacts in the islands, some trees and power lines came down, but no deaths were reported and they'll be able to come back from this.
 * Julio - ?? - Following Iselle, but we'll just have to see how close it gets to Hawaii. Currently forecast to stay north though.

Central Pacific:

Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Alright, here are mine as of June 30:
 * Amanda — <1% Nope.
 * Boris — ≤1% Nope.
 * Cristina — <1% Nope.
 * Douglas — <1% Nope.
 * Elida — ≤1% Probably nope.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel.
 * 2) Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub.
 * 3) Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe.
 * 4) Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay.
 * 5) Elida - 0% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she miserably failed. Not even Mexico witnessed anything from her!!!
 * 6) Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway.
 * 7) Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto.
 * 8) Genevieve - 0% - I am very impressed by the show Genevieve gave us. I remember when we were first calling the storm a pathetic fail (not me, at least!) and just saying it sucked when she poofed away. Then Genny tried hard to prove us wrong and she only got so far again. So she passed away again, but her spirit still stayed with her, and she refused to give up hope. Finally, she did what every EPAC system dreams of doing - live in all three basins and become a modest Category 5 hurricane. It was worth the struggle. Genny accomplished her dream, and even better, harmed no one. While we know she isn't going, she was a very impressive system for her age and day.
 * 9) Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years.
 * 10) Iselle - 5% - Well, Miss Iselle is going to be a tricky one. She started off real excited and attained C4 intensity in a region that normally could only handle a C2. Then she did the annular trick and went straight to Hawaii's doorstep as a moderate TS. Her landfall on the Big Island is the strongest one to ever occur. And that obviously didn't go without impact. Damaging surf and strong winds around Hilo downed a number of trees and unroofed some houses. Over 20,000 are without power due to all the power lines Iselle downed. Of strong note is what happened in Puna; the power failure in a geothermal plant has released toxic hydrogen sulfide gases into the air, which could suffocate dozens. Although we have no reports of any damages or deaths yet, a storm like this is bound to leave a strong footprint. My percentage should easily rise over the next couple of days as more information chimes in.
 * 11) Julio - TBA - Still Active

We have enough storms for me:
 * Eastern Pacific
 * Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise.
 * Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is.
 * Douglas: 0% -
 * Elida: 0% -
 * Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm*
 * Genevieve: Still active. Epic win for the intensity it reached after struggling for nearly two weeks, but should steer clear of land areas.
 * Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally.
 * Iselle: Still active, but poses quite an unusually high risk for Hawaii. We'll see.
 * Julio: Still active. Threat to Hawaii is less than with Iselle, but should still be watched.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Central Pacific
 * Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often.

Here's mine: - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it.
 * Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough.
 * Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed.
 * Elida: 0% - She didn't even try.
 * ??? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * My predictions for this season.


 * Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement.
 * Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying.
 * Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show.
 * Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed.
 * Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm.
 * Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam.
 * Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening.
 * Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying.

Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her.
 * Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one.
 * Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land.
 * Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast.
 * Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail.
 * Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all
 * Genevieve: Active
 * Hernan: 0% Just because he was a hurricane doesn't mean he is a candidate for retirement. He did nothing at all.
 * Iselle: Active
 * Julio: Active
 * Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee.
 * Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's my prediction