Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season/Earl

===07L.EARLEdit=== ====96L.INVESTEdit==== Just coming off of Africa, NHC has it at 10% and it's already invested... I'm interested in seeing what the models think of this. --Patteroast 16:37, August 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's a very good-looking wave for a storm just emerging off the coast, but models predict it could follow Danielle and cut through the ridge, but storms after this could make it all the way across the Atlantic as the Bermuda-Azores high builds back in. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:33, August 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * GFS suggests otherwise. C'mon becoem a fish. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * 40% from NHC!!! atomic7732 22:45, August 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * 60% now. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * I think it's safe to say the party has officially started. The Cape Verde season has begun. This storm looks just as good as Danielle did. GFDL, ECMWF, GFS, HWRF and SHIPS all make it a hurricane. Curiously, NOGAPS doesn't develop it at all and CMC is surprisingly unenthusiastic with it, keeping it below hurricane strength throughout the period. All that said, it looks like it's going to follow in the footsteps of Danielle and stay out to sea. -- SkyFury 00:28, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Eric, to tell the truth, I am getting bored of 2010 so far. Frank is dying out there, Danielle won't affect land, and this wave probrably won't either. I am very upset with the season's forecasts. Even though this season is forecast to be above average, if all of the storms miss land this year, I don't give an honest damn. Unless this season can produce a storm worthy of my attention, I don't think there is any point of this season even "being". August is a week from being wraped up and we haven't even gotten to Earl in the Atlantic, just 6 storms in the East Pac, and 5 in the West Pac? The tropics know better than to be this inactive at this time, especially the West Pac. Ryan1000 01:00, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * BTW, Frank is not dying. It has an outside chace of Cat 2. Now I now who wrote on my blog. YE Tropical Cyclone 01:21, August 24, 2010 (UTC)

Yikes, GFDL develops this fast enough to make it already a tropical storm while hitting Cape Verde directly. --Patteroast 02:38, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well Ryan, then maybe you're on the wrong forum. Apparently it takes 2004/05 to pique your interest. I don't need enormous Cat 4s demolishing cities to keep me interested. All this bitching about the season forecasts is really starting to get old. We've got ten weeks until Halloween. That's a long f-ing time but whatever. I'm sorry the season's not living up to your lofty expectations. Nature doesn't perform on que. I'm sorry to get snippy like this but I'm really just flat out sick of the complaining. I think there will be plenty to watch this season, including at least one significant US landfalling hurricane. I also think that part of the reason for the tropical power outage may be the solar minimum we're currently experiencing. I believe sunspot activity hit a 30-year low last year. -- SkyFury 04:56, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's up to 90% now on NHC, and it hasn't even gotten past Cape Verde yet! It will follow Danielle, but its track could be west of the Bermuda High to east of Danielle. However, the wave after this one, is the one worth watching. 2007Astro'sHurricane 12:55, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Sky, i'm not on the wrong forum; i'm just getting a little impatient of the tropics; we aren't putting up 2005 numbers, but 2004 had 8 storms in august, making it the most active August on record. We will NOT have 6 more named storms in the last week of August, let alone at least two. 2008 had Gustav at this time, just two storms ahead of us, but Hanna, Ike, and Josephine were coming in just one week from today, 5 storms ahead of 2010. We have plenty of time to watch the tropics, but we probrably won't even pull a 2004 or 2008 from where we are at right now, my final seasonal forecast is 13-6-3, which won't be a 2004, or 2008 even. Trust me, when we get something out there that actually threatens land (particularly the U.S.), I will go downright nuts over it here. We have 3 more months, but I can't see us getting a 2004 or 2008 unless the Atlantic goes f-ing crazy in September and October, I mean 2007 crazy, but with less fails. Ryan1000 13:16, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * 90%? Is that REALLY necessary NHC? And, quit it about the boring season, the tropics in the 3 major NHEM basins have begun forming cyclones again, so this needs to stop, reflect over it when it's done. atomic7732 13:59, August 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * I was just getting a bit bored so far, and IMO we won't quite get 2004 or 2008's numbers, but may have the "powers" (notability) of those years. And NHC, 90%? Are you shitting me? It's a tropical depression and you know it. Just give the storm the f-ing number so you can move on with your predictions for this thing. This is just what you said about Colin, Eric. It pisses me off when the NHC has to wait until they actually see the LLC on sattelite imagery, why not just number it anyways so you can move on with it? Ryan1000 00:39, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Because it it not technically tropical unless it has a closed LLCC. BTW, some models see a storm spree, so watch what you say first, we might have an unbelievable number of storms in the next, lets say 15 days? Darren23Edits 00:54, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Darren, I'm just thinking we will be a little less active than 2004 or 2008 because at this time in those two years, they were one or two storms ahead of us now, and assuming we get the same activity as 2004 and 2008 for the rest of the season (that would a lot of activity), we should end up one or two storms behind them as well. But, of course, mother nature does what she wants; only time will tell. About the 90% thing again? I mean, it's so close to being a depression why not just call it one anyways? I personally don't think there is a big difference between calling it a depression 3 hours before the NHC actually says it's one, but I prefer not to go days out in the future. Anyways, this season-and this storm-are unpredictable as of now. We must wait. Ryan1000 01:34, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ryan, maybe now you appreciate just how rare 2004, 2005 and 2008 were. -- SkyFury 14:53, August 25, 2010 (UTC)

====Tropical Depression SevenEdit==== So here it is. NHC, are you crazy? Near 100%?? atomic7732 14:35, August 25, 2010 (UTC) Up on NHC just seconds later. atomic7732 14:36, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's a boy! I think we should name him Earl! I think he's gonna follow in his sister's footsteps, grow up to be a modest hurricane and probably not affect land. -- SkyFury 14:53, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * They don't hold off on declaring systems tropical systems just for fun... they have strict criteria that must be met. Just because they know that it's all but certain that it WILL become a depression doesn't make it one any sooner. But now it is, and the initial forecast track does not recurve as quickly as Danielle... which is worrying. --Patteroast 16:22, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * (Earl) makes me worry greatly more than Danielle because it is much farther south and much more westwrd-moving. Oh, and Eric, It's not that a season has to be like 2004, 2005, or 2008 to grab my attention; it's just that those three years were the top three costliest tropical cyclone seasons in history, so I condone them as "very exeptional". A 1992 would be good enough for me, but a 2005 would make me go downright berserk. Heck, even if I saw 1977 again, I would even consider that year twice. Every basin worldwide in 1977 produced at least one storm of note. In the Atlantic, that was Anita, a cat. 5 from Mexico's gulf coast is notable enough for me, and the only category 5 worldwide in 1977. In the Epac, it was Heather, 14 inches of rain in the southwest is special for a Pacific hurricane, IMO. It's not every day you don't see a category 5 in the West Pac. as what happened in 1977, or a storm as erratic as Babe was, let alone an Atlantic hurricane of the same name, same time. And one of India's worst storms on record occured in 1977. I'm not sure what special note the SHem had that year, but they were probrably special in some way, too. I'm sorry if I offended you, but that's my true opinion; I didn't fully explain myself. Still, stay tuned on future Earl. Ryan1000 17:55, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * BTW, you forgot Doreen. It re-damaged roads. YE Tropical Cyclone 18:47, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * At the current rate, this storm could pass just east of Bermuda as a weak cat. 4. It's on track to strengthening to a major hurricane in six days OR it might not become a hurricane at all. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:06, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * I can't tell where Earl will go from now; it's way too early. And YE, Doreen wasn't that bad for Baja, but it might have had the lowest pressure from any non-category 2 in the eastern Pacific. Also, Mary was a rare year-crosser in the WPac, Dec 20 to Jan 2. I didn't mention everything notable; rather just some notable features in 1977. Ryan1000 20:18, August 25, 2010 (UTC)

====Tropical Storm EarlEdit==== Huh, NRL's calling it Earl before NHC. --Patteroast 20:28, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ah, there we go. Hi Earl! --Patteroast 20:37, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS
 * FORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.
 * Huh, and people were calling this a dead season? 2007Astro'sHurricane 23:49, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * It made me laugh when i saw that and then remebered the message on the 2010 AHS talk page about NOAA predicting far too many systems and not being reliable anymore.JasonRees 00:08, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * To silence the bust casters,and warn humans to prepare. That is why they wrote that. YE Tropical Cyclone 00:02, August 26, 2010 (UTC)

No more bustcasting, we are coming on track with the hot streak now. However, we can't know what Earl will do until we wait a week or so. Only time will tell for sure. Danielle is probrably going to recurve away from land, and I would expect Earl to do so as well, but it all depends on how strong it gets, and how much it goes north of west. The Carribean is not out of the question for sure. I'm waiting for now. Just waiting. Also, not to peer into the future by any means, but I just have a bad feeling about Earl... A bad feeling... Ryan1000 00:31, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * I am feeling Earl might be interested in looking into New England. --88.102.101.245 09:28, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * 88, that isn't my bad feeling-my bad feeling is something much, much worse. Only time will tell if my bad feeling becomes a nightmare, and for all intents and purposes, I hope it doesn't happen, but... Ryan1000 13:46, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl, Please go to Fishpinner University like your brother Colin, and your sister Danielle is applying for. YE Tropical Cyclone 14:47, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * Latest GFS brings this just off the US East Coast, and gives a storm following right behind it. 2007Astro'sHurricane 17:32, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think my fear will be to come soon. The NHC says... EARL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. Also, they said if Earl fails to organize itself signifigantly, and Danielle turns out to sea fast enough, then the Bermuda-Azores ridge of high pressure could rebuild and force Earl more West than North, swinging it into the Carribean and then the Gulf of Mexico, rather than north and out to sea(this could be a week or two from now, but i'm just saying, it's not a good thing at all). Ryan1000 18:27, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * Latest from NHC has Earl at category three by the end of the forecast period. --Patteroast 22:44, August 26, 2010 (UTC)

Earl is starting to make me nervous. It's a very patient storm that's ever so slowly getting better organized and it's got a nice, healthy anticyclone waiting for it in a few days. I know a mid-latitude trough is probably going to limit its US landfall options to North Carolina or New England and the likelihood of it hitting either of those is not especially high, but I don't know. There's something about it I don't like. I feel like I'm watching a fox start to drift over toward the hen house. For the record, I also think Bermuda should be watching Earl more closely than Danielle. And who the hell knows what 97L is gonna do. -- SkyFury 05:08, August 27, 2010 (UTC)
 * It could hit Bermuda, or Newfoundland. However, some historical storms entered the Gulf as a major, and that would be bad as this reminds me of Ike. Beware the first storm of September? 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:17, August 27, 2010 (UTC)

Eric, as I mentioned, the track Earl takes all depends on how fast Danielle veers out to sea and how strong Earl gets. If Danielle can turn out right now, and Earl doesn't signifigantly organize now, then the ridge of high pressure will force Earl farther westward and that trough wont be able to push it out to sea, but rather northward into New England. I am fearing Earl will pull a Carol or a Gloria, or worst of all, the 1938 monster. It's way too early to tell, but Earl isn't so promising to turn out to sea, IMO. Ryan1000 14:41, August 27, 2010 (UTC)
 * Astro, the first storm of September adage refers to the first storm to form in September, not the first to exist in September. That will probably be either Fiona or Gaston, depending on what 97L does. Ryan, I think the residents of the US east coast can take comfort in the fact that the stronger Earl gets (and right now, prospects are looking good for a major hurricane, despite the storm's very slow rate of intensification), the more it's going to want to turn out to sea and that if it does head for land, it's unlikely to be stronger than a modest Cat 2. -- SkyFury 17:18, August 27, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl is moving WSW, and soon to arrive at 15N, clearly off the forecast cone. 18z GFS hints at major trouble for Nova Scotia, and I'm talking about a possible cat. 3 landfall near Cape Breton. 2007Astro'sHurricane 02:20, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * What is Earl doing? Someone ever saw something like that? No word by the NHC on this. --88.102.101.245
 * Eric, Earl is very ominous(and somewhat scary) to me. On the track it's going on, it will go west, but then north as it deepens, but my worst fear for Earl may come true. My fear is, on the track it's going, it will intensify into a minimal major hurricane, but then it will get caught between the Bermuda high and the trough off the East coast and skyrocket into New York City as a very strong hurricane. On the path the NHC says it's going on, it could easily do just that. If the current track keeps up, it will be the first major hurricane to do that on record. The only other hurricane known to directly hit New York City was the fourth hurricane of 1893, and that storm only hit the city with 85 mph winds, and thus wasn't a very destructive storm for the area. But Earl is a whole new ball game. The problem with hurricanes in New York or the rest of the northeast is they move so fast, there is hardly any time to get out of the way before they make landfall, which is how the 1938 hurricane turned out to be so bad, because it caught the area by surprise, moving at 70+ mph. We really should stay tuned on this one. It could be very bad. And even if it doesn't become a major hurricane, it doesn't mean it won't be bad; tell that to Ike, Eric. A category 2 is bad enough. Ryan1000 14:22, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Looks like it's splitting in two and doing Fujiwara with itself. Could potentially shift the storm's track farther south. 2007Astro'sHurricane 14:52, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * That could hinder it's progress a bit. NGDFL and NOGAPS take Earl into Atlantic Canada or Maine, UKMET takes it toward the Carolinas, but HWRF and GDFL take it toward my worst fear location, the New York area, and the NHC's path follows those models. I'm fearing Earl will pull one of those. And Eric, the only big computer model that takes Earl away from land completly is the GFS, and I can't feel certain that that one model will be right. The other models contradict that. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 14:57, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Do remember, back in 1938, they didn't have TV, and communications didn't move around much. Especially because they aren't familiar with hurricanes up north, definitely in 1938. atomic7732 16:18, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * I have a feeling this will fail miserably again. I am sorry. YE Tropical Cyclone 16:33, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * GET RID OF THE BUST ATTITUDE!!! YE, if you think Earl will be a fail, think it to yourself; don't post it here. I'm getting really sick and tired of all your whining and crying about you thinking every storm will be a fail. I happen to trust the NHC in this case, and Earl will definitely not be a fail. New England must watch out. And Atomic7732, I'm sorry, but I must correct you in some way. Yes, we didn't have TV's in the 30's, and the 1938 storm was the worst to hit New England since 1815 and the first major since 1869, but even with all of the technology we have today, if a hurricane is racing North at 70 miles an hour, use some common sense. At 70 mph, in only, say, 6 hours it'll be walking onto New York's doorsteps. There isn't any way to evacuate all of New York City in just 6 hours. That's another thing i'm fearing-last minute panic. I can't tell if New York will be in Earl's gunsight's, but if the current track keeps up, it will be. For now, i'm waiting, though... Ryan1000 19:55, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * A major hurricane hitting New York would be the worst-case scenario for the US. However, the 12z GFS makes a direct hit on HALIFAX, NOVA SCOTIA as a category three hurricane! This is going to be a bad season, especially since it's a post-Modoki like 2003, which produced Juan. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:23, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * All attention goes to Earl as the recon data gives 70 kt winds and a pressure of 983. atomic7732 22:19, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Great news! Earl is no longer failing! YE Tropical Cyclone 22:35, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * That's what I thought, YE. And Astro, I don't completly trust GFS; I'm more worried about the HWRF and GDFL models, as well as the official NHC forecast. GFS is somewhat errornous to me, and I'm worried about the New York City scenario more than the Hallifax scenario simply because New York is much more vulnerable to storm surge and much more built up than Hallifax is. It won't be good if Hallifax gets a direct hit, but it's a helluva lot better than NEW YORK CITY getting one. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:23, August 29, 2010 (UTC)

====Hurricane EarlEdit==== And we have our third hurricane of 2010. The NHC has put up warnings for the north-easternmost lesser antillies, and watches for the Virgins and Puerto Rico. They also slightly adjusted their track; they are expecting Earl to be a strong hurricane as it passes the east coast, but miss New York City a little bit to the east. However, that worst-case scenario is definitely not out of the question. Stay tuned, everyone. Ryan1000 12:58, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl may not hit us, but it'll be exhilarating, that's for sure. Surfers, have your boards and wetsuits at the ready, you will not want to miss this. -- SkyFury 04:48, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Category 2 now. Regardless of what effects it has on the US, it's definitely already having effects on Antigua and Barbuda and other nearby islands. I hope they're holding up okay... because Earl might hit category three before heading away. Yikes. --Patteroast 07:59, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * This thing could be the worst hit there since Georges or Lenny, or at worst, Hugo. The official NHC forecast brings it up to category 4, paralleling the East coast, then turning away, paralleling Nova Scotia, too, and lastly, hitting Newfoundland as a weakening hurricane. It appears it could turn out better than what I thought it would be, but anything could change. Ryan1000 11:31, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * The margin of error contains some really nasty possibilities... also, it looks like Anguilla just got hit by the southern eyewall. --Patteroast 13:30, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Added to Wikipedia article. YE Tropical Cyclone 13:35, August 30, 2010 (UTC)

====Major Hurricane EarlEdit==== Up on RBT. I will guarantee it will pass well offshore the USA. YE Tropical Cyclone 13:35, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think a 'guarantee' is a bit premature. It looks like it'll stay offshore, and it is forecast to, but a small unexpected turn at this point could change that very quickly. The US East Coast should watch this very carefully. --Patteroast 14:58, August 30, 2010 (UTC)

Uh oh. This could be a big storm. The official NHC forecast pulls it off of the east coast, but runs it right into Hallifax as a category 2. In fact, if the forecast is correct, it could be worse than Juan. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 16:08, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ryan, I have to agree with you this time. Earl is one happy hurricane. From what I can see on the satellite imagery, it is completely unimpeded. Outflow is excellent in all quadrants. That eye is a perfect sphere. Unless it runs into something, I don't think Earl's gonna stop strengthening for at least the next couple of days. Given the gorgeous, stable eye that seems to be present, I'd be surprised if it undergoes an ERC sooner than 24 hours from now, and even that soon is unlikely. If it keeps strengthening at the rate it has been for the past 12-24 hours, Category 5 is not out of the question. The forecast peak intensity has jumped 20 knots since yesterday morning. And if anybody has noticed, the forecast track has continued to shift westward... For their sake, New England, and for that matter the entire mid-Atlantic, better hope that trough arrives on time. This is starting to become a much more serious situation for the US east coast. If the track shifts any further west, we could be looking at a dangerous hurricane bearing down on North Carolina by Thursday and then raking up the rest of the East Coast. It's gonna be hairy enough as it is. -- SkyFury 18:47, August 30, 2010 (UTC)

Exactly, Eric. Earl looks like an epic win right now, and it still could get stronger. This is just what you said about Hurricane Ida last year. If Earl beats the trough, which Ida failed to do, then it will be a signifigant storm for the east coast, which, for the record, hasn't seen a U.S. landfalling hurricane in 5 years; the last one to hit was Ophelia in 2005. Typically the east coast sees a hurricane once every two years, but the last time we had a 5 year-streak for the east coast was from 1979 to 1984. I have a feeling Earl will pull a Bob or Carol, approaching the Bahamas and then racing past the east coast until it hits eastern Long Island and Rhode Island. Stay tuned. This could be a very bad storm. JSYK, Eric, Earl is strengthening, now it's at 125 mph and 955 mbars, that's a strong category 3. Category 5 definitely seems possible at this point. Ryan1000 19:41, August 30, 2010 (UTC)


 * Um, Houston, we have a problem. Earl is a category 4 hurricane right now, and Fiona is behind it? What's up with the Atlantic now? After going for 2 months dead, this basin is in an outrage right now. 3 storms in less than a week. We are rolling in this basin big time, and it's just not stopping. The oficial NHC forecast calls for a 150 mph hurricane, but at the rate Earl is going, I would be surprised if this storm doesn't become a category 5 hurricane by tonight or tomorrow morning. I can tell this thing is undrgoing rapid intensification. This is a Wilma-type explosion, it's just going on and on and on. This is not going to be good at all. The East coast must watch out. Now. Ryan1000 21:14, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ryan, had Ida missed Central America, which it almost did, I shudder to think how very different things would've been. It probably would've hit very close to where I go to school as at least a Cat 2. Hitting land slowed it down and kept it from exploding in the northwest Caribbean. As for Earl, it's not so much whether it beats the trough period, which isn't going to happen, it's whether it beats it to North Carolina. If it does, all the trough's going to do is take it on a destructive tour of the upper east coast a la 1944. Early on, that trough was forecast to arrive in plenty of time, but Earl has not slowed down nearly as much as the models were anticipating and now it's going to be a lot more nerve wracking than we were hoping for. -- SkyFury 21:54, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Eric, Ida formed a little too close to land and moved toward land like Beta did in 2005. Had Ida formed in the same area where Mitch or Paloma did, then things would've gotten really nasty. This storm is also not turning northwest either, Eric, it's still heading west-northwest. I thought Earl would change direction to the Northwest in this new advisory, which is also what the NHC anticipated, but apparently I was wrong. It's still heading in the same direction at the same speed as it was when it was a category 3 in the last advisory. Since Earl is not turning northwest or slowing down right now, it seems far more likely that it beat the trough to North Carolina and thus it is much more likely to make landfall in the United States. This is no longer fun and games anymore; this thing is now starting to get very scary. It's just not slowing down. To Earl, it's like a race to the finish line as fast as you can, not slow and steady wins the race. Everyone must stay tuned on Earl. This storm could be very bad. Ryan1000 22:21, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl is definitley going to hit the east coast. I'm thinking a touch and go on North Carolina category 4? atomic7732 22:51, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * The latest NHC info on Earl is out. They still have it going WNW at 15 mph, and the pressure is now 939 mbars, making it the strongest storm of the season. This storm is ever so more likely to hit the east coast with every advisory it moves WNW. Stay tuned, everyone. Ryan1000 23:13, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wow, the official forecast brings Earl five knots shy of Category 5. People better watch out in the Outer Banks, New England, and the Canadian Maritimes. Even if Earl stays offshore, there will be some major impacts in those regions. --Patteroast 23:58, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, Earl may be about to make me eat my words: this looks like concentric eyewalls. Look you can see the right side of the eyewall already beginning to erode. I began to wonder when the rapid intensification cooled off. After a storm goes on one of those binges, a hangover often follows. I'm surprised it's happening this soon though. The conditions are such that Earl should bounce right back but this may put an end to a bid for Category 5. -- SkyFury 01:48, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * All that said, the pressure continues to fall. It's down to 933mb now. That is intense, sir. For comparison, Hurricane Ike, which peaked at 125 knots, never dropped below 935mb. 933 does not sound like a hurricane that's going through an eyewall replacement cycle. *Sigh* I hate conflicting data. -- SkyFury 05:10, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * Eric, I don'y know if it's an eyewall cycle that's weakening it a bit; on the sattelites, there is a little bit of shear in his face. Earl is more than strong enough to fight it, though, and I strongly believe this strom is only temporarily weakening. Also, category 5 is still not out of the question; the pressure is actually dropping with the new advisory, it's now 931 mbars, but the winds remain unchanged. By comparison, Felix of 2007 was a strong category 5 but peaked only 2 mbars below where Earl is now. AND IT'S STILL NOT TURNING NORTHWEST! It slowed down to 13 mph, but that's not enough to hinder a U.S. landfall at all. We must stay tuned on Earl. Ryan1000 12:56, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * Up, latest advisory, and yes, Eric, it's weakening, back up to 939 mbars, but it picked up speed again, 14 mph to the same direction, WNW! The NHC now says it's South-Southeast from North Carolina. In order for Earl to evade a U.S. landfall at this time, it would have to go due north or north-northeast right now, and I just cannot see that happening. If Earl goes due northwest by the next advisory, it will end up at the border of South and North Carolina, which means it will be all but certain to ravage the East coast. If it still goes west-northwest, it will end up turning north-northeast when it's off of the coast of Florida, so it will still ravage the east coast. This storm is now guranteed to make landfall somewhere in the United States; it's just north of the Dominican Republic, and North Carolina will get bombed by this thing 3-4 days from now. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 16:21, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * Now 941 mb, a weakening category four and fighting dry air. The forecast and models now bring this farther and farther west, and it could well ride up the Gulf Stream (only four major hurricanes have done that since 1990). One model brings it just off Cape Cod as a cat. 4 (!), and all models except HWRF on 00-06z moe.met bring it to a landfall on Nova Scotia. The 12z GFS brings it very close to NYC, enough to spawn storm surge, heavy surf and rip tides, and heavy rain and flooding, while it makes a direct hit on Halifax. It could undergo extratropical transition as soon as it exits the Gulf Stream and loses major hurricane intensity, but it could maintain much of its windspeed while dumping its rainfall as it makes landfall in Nova Scotia. In fact, I cannot help but look at the remarkable similarity between Earl's forecast track and that of the 1938 Long Island Express, both September storms. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:46, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl will hit the east coast at some point. All but one of the models, including the latest NHC forecast, at least take it into Cape Hatteras briefly, but I think this storm will rake up the east coast and crash into New England as at least a category 3 or 2 storm. And Astro, the 1938 storm hit at the worst possible timing. In 1938, the Bermuda High was located off of Atlantic Canada, rather than the East coast of the U.S. Also, the trough off of the East coast was one of those once in 100 years troughs', it pulled the storm north rather than eastward, and the jet stream rocketed the storm northward at 70 miles an hour, so the storm couldn't be grabbed by wind shear or weakened over colder waters. Worse still, it struck at high tide, so the storm surge was over 20 feet high, and the storm was hundreds of miles wide, too. What could be worse? Had it struck only 75 to 80 miles farther west, it would have made a direct hit to New York City with all of these bad conditions to fuel it. It would have been much, much worse had that happened. Earl probrably won't do just that, but it still bears watching. Ryan1000 19:22, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * Define 'hit'. I don't think it'll make landfall but it might get close enough to make the exact terminology irrelevant. The storm is starting to bear an uncanny resemblance to the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 (although fortunately we wouldn't see any of the terrible maritime disasters that accompanied that storm in any case.) Keep in mind, Earl is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend 90 miles out from the center. It doesn't even have to come all that close to cause a serious problem for the East Coast. -- SkyFury 22:03, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * I normally would define a hit as a landfall, Eric. And it's finally going northwest, after defying that expected turn for quite some time; since at least yesterday. Also, Earl needs to slow down a bit if it want's miss the U.S. If it keeps up that 14 mph, it probrably will beat that trough to NC and rake up the east coast. If it slows to 10 mph or so, then the trough will beat it. Earl is far enough west and large enough as to where the NHC has issued hurricane watches for North Carolina. I don't think it will miss the east coast, but it all depends on what Earl does. Also, Earl is one sad excuse for a category 4 right now. Look at it. The entire northeastern eyewall has been eroded away. For all intents and purposes, it should be downgraded to a category 3 at the next advisory. I'd be stunned if it wasn't. Ryan1000 22:37, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * Satellite estimates are down a bit but, knowing NHC, they'll be reluctant to weaken it without recon confirmation. I'm surprised the Hurricane Hunters found such strong winds this afternoon. I fully expected it to be down to 105 knots or weaker by now. It really has been pretty remarkable how Earl's been able to maintain its strength. All the more reason for NHC to be cautious when judging intensity. The worst storms aren't always the prettiest. -- SkyFury 23:20, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * I agree, Eric. I mean, not all storms must be strong to be deadly. Some good examples include Agatha of this year's Pacific season, Allison of 2001, and Agnes of 1972. Earl is being rather defiant right now; it just doesn't want to weaken. It isn't the best example of a defiant storm, however. If anything, that's Hurricane Mitch. I would be surprised if it doesn't weaken soon, but the problem with this weakening is it could pick up speed and hit the U.S. sooner than otherwise thought possible. I'm just waiting and watching right now, looking at every possible trick Earl has up his outflow. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 23:47, August 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl is gonna be bad. People in North Carolina are thinking it's not gonna be anything. This is gonna make it a very, very bad storm. atomic7732 00:35, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * The problem I have with storms like this, the ones that travel parallel to the coast, is that just a twitch of error even at the 36-48 hour mark, makes a huge difference. Earl could be anywhere between exhilarating and devastating. And I still can't get over the fact that Earl is still a Cat 4 as of the 1am advisory. It just shrugged off an eyewall replacement cycle like it was nothing. That's the meteorological equivalent of shrugging off open-heart surgery. If an ERC can't slow this thing down, what will? I'm really hoping the North Carolina coast is not the answer to that question. -- SkyFury 06:31, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hm, down to category three now. Still, the forecast cone makes me very worried. --Patteroast 13:04, September 1, 2010 (UTC)


 * I still have the bad feeling Earl is going to beat the trough; since it weakened to cat. 3, it has headed farther west from what was expected, and now at the rate it's going, it will head toward the border of South and North Carolina. That will ensure Earl makes a U.S. landfall in that area. I don't think that trough has arrived on time. Earl is going to be one bad storm. It's moving at 16 mph, so it is probrably moving fast enough to beat it. Stay tuned. This is not going to be fun. Ryan1000 14:52, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * The hurricane looks impressive on satellite, and it's about to enter the Gulf Stream. I'm not sure how a large storm like Earl will handle the erratic nature of the Gulf Stream, but it could cause rapid strengthening. By the time the storm is forecast to make landfall near Yarmouth in Nova Scotia, it's still expected to be a cat. 1 but it'll be over 15C waters which would provide a rapid extratropical transition. The 1938 hurricane and the 1944 hurricane are both on the historical map for Earl that shows major hurricanes near its present position in September. Maybe the storm will shrink in size, but the quick recovery from the EWRC has me worried, because it has a large eye and may or may not be in the process of becoming annular, which would make it even more resistant to weakening. Most storms do maintain sufficient intensity while riding the Gulf Stream to have a big impact should it make landfall, and Bob in 1991 was an example. Hugo was an example of a storm that crossed the Gulf Stream and maintained catastrophic category five intensity. If Earl manages to stay to the southern end of its track, it could remain in waters above 25C until it hits about 41N. There is some extra heat sliding off the continental US that could feed into the sea below Earl, but the drier air from the heat wave could also hinder intensification. 2007Astro'sHurricane 15:48, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Astro, Hugo restrengthened to a category 4 when it was over the gulf stream, it was a category 5 only briefly when it was out in the open Atlantic. Also, Hugo didn't turn out to sea because the Bermuda High was over the northeastern U.S. at that time, so Hugo was forced onto South Carolina. Earl is directly south of Cape Hatteras right now, and this storm is continuing to head Northwest, and it's picking up speed, too. We must watch out for this storm. It is more than likely to hit the U.S. as of now. Ryan1000 16:01, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl's back up to 4. Watches extended up to Massachusetts. --Patteroast 21:14, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * NHC has issued a tropical storm watch for New York City and a hurricane watch for Cape Cod as well. 2007Astro'sHurricane 21:17, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl looks a lot more impressive. It is clearly getting stronger. According to Ed Rappaport, Deputy Direc. of NHC, in a interview with the Weather Channel said the pressure has plunged to 932mb. He kinda danced around the question about whether the winds are increasing but I'd be shocked if the winds aren't at least bumped up a little bit. The satellite presentation really is incredible. -- SkyFury 00:53, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * NC landfall almost for sure. The storm looks very symmetrical. atomic7732 01:57, September 2, 2010
 * This thing is restrengthening now that it's eyewall replacement cycle is over, and it's now turning North-Northwest, but again, it's picking up speed, 18 mph! The trough won't arrive on time now. I'm certain of it. This storm will crash into NC and rake up the east coast as a strong hurricane, at least a 2 or 3. Keep your eyes out, NC, this one could be bad for you. And we should all pay attention to Earl. It will most likely end a 5 year-drought of east coast hurricanes. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 02:04, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * And will end the 5-year spell of no landfaling MH's in USA. Oh well. Earl sucks. YE Tropical Cyclone 02:16, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Interestingly, the model consensus has actually shifted east just a tad. Looking at the microwave imagery, I think there's a good chance Earl will undergo another ERC before it reaches the Outer Banks (I'm not quite ready to use the word "landfall" yet), and this could end up being North Carolina's saving grace. However I do agree with NHC in that it's likely to still be a major hurricane when it affects the NC coast. And I love how nobody's paying attention to the fact that a New England hurricane landfall is looking increasingly likely. -- SkyFury 04:45, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ugh, this isn't good. The eyewall has shrunk, meaning the hurricane may intensify despite the dry air. I wouldn't be surprised if the hurricane finished an EWRC right when it hits the Gulf Stream, then transitioned to an annular hurricane. The hurricane looks set to make landfall near the Bay of Fundy, and that could be a problem with storm tides. According to Weather Underground, the hurricane is the third strongest this far north, and it hasn't even gotten to the Gulf Stream yet! Warm waters extend up the New Jersey shore. Tropical storm watches are now in effect for southern Nova Scotia. The storm might not make landfall at all until Canada, but its effects could still be severe. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:30, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, Earl is heading north now, still at 18 mph. There actually is a chance it could miss the eastern U.S. coastline, but I can't rule out a landfall at all. It seems it could turn out earlier than I thought; even though that trough is only just past the Great Plains, it appears the Bermuda High is recurving it out as of now, so Earl might not end that spell. Also, a U.S. major hurricane once every 5 years isn't so unusual; no east coast hurricanes in 5 years is extremely unusual. As a matter of fact, the only other 5 year streaks of no east coast hurricanes were from 1979-1984 and 1971-1976, both during the inactive hurricane cycle in the Atlantic. Well, this will be very interesting to watch as of now, and the next day or two. Ryan1000 17:27, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * You can rule it out now. It's starting to recurve already, it looks like. atomic7732 22:26, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Earl looks like its gonna miss the coast by a good margin but I think a good chunk of the Outer Banks will fall within the radius of hurricane-force winds. In fact, on Morehead City radar, you can already see a nasty band headed right for the coast and I imagine that's how the night's gonna go. But the eyewall replacement cycle (which I correctly predicted) may have saved their bacon. This could've easily been a Cat. 4 bearing down on the coast. -- SkyFury 00:45, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * *Whew*. This is the second storm so far in the 2010 AHS that failed to significantly impact the U.S. Alex could have hit Brownsville as a category 4 had that ridge not strengthened at the last minute, and Earl could've hit NC as a 4 had it just picked up some speed when it was near the Carribean. We are having a very good run of luck so far in this season. But luck can run out at any time. I mean, who the heck knows what Gaston has up his sleeve. He died out in the open Atlantic. He's taking things very slowly. Stay tuned on him. Ryan1000 01:27, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, not out of the woods yet. There's still New England and Canada in Earl's sights. --Patteroast 03:32, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * I expect the intensity will be bumped down with the 11am advisory to at least 85 knots. I think 75 knots is a good estimate of the intensity at Cape Cod. I expect Earl's impact in New England to be similar to, but slightly less severe than, that of Gloria in '85. It will be interesting to see if Earl gets an injection of baroclinic energy from the mid-latitude system like the models have suggested it might. All that said, unless there's a dramatic drop in intensity or shift in track, I expect Earl to be the first tropical cyclone to bring hurricane-force winds to US soil in nearly two years (although Ida briefly brought hurricane-force gusts to extreme southeast LA), and the first to do so north of the Mason-Dixon Line in nearly two decades. -- SkyFury 14:56, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Eric, this storm fortunately didn't turn out to be so bad, and it also missed making landfall. Earl failed to end the 5- year major hurricane drought in the U.S, let alone the east coast drought. It did bring hurricane conditions to the Cape Hatteras area briefly, but the last time a hurricane actually made landfall on the east coast was 2005's Katrina, at Miami as a category 1 storm. Ophelia certainly brought hurricane conditions to the east coast as well; However, Ophelia didn't officialy make landfall, and I can't see this thing hitting eastern long island and Rhode island from where it is right now. I'm just waiting on Gaston as of now. Ryan1000 18:03, September 3, 2010 (UTC)

====Tropical Storm EarlEdit==== Downgraded to a tropical storm just as the windfield has come over Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Hurricane warnings dropped, although there's still a hurricane watch for parts of Nova Scotia... otherwise, lots of tropical storm warnings still out for Maine and Canada. Hopefully Earl makes his way through Nova Scotia quickly, and the damage there is minimal. --Patteroast 03:58, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Landfall in Nova Scotia as a strong tropical storm. --Patteroast 17:18, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wow, it's all the way into the Gulf of St. Lawrence and still tropical. There are tropical storm warnings for the west coast of Newfoundland. Still, the show's pretty much over. Sure could have been a LOT worse. --Patteroast 21:28, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Finally post-tropical. --Patteroast 09:21, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * I get the feeling that Earl is just the beginning. This was just to make sure we were awake. We can't keep hoping to get this lucky for the rest of the season. -- SkyFury 06:29, September 8, 2010 (UTC)