Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season/Iselle

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 17)

 * Atlantic forum link: 2 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI has become TD Two in the Atlantic. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI is on the TWO, and it could gradually develop into a low pressure area later this week. Chances of formation for this system are near 0% for the next two days and near 20% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:11, July 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS is aggressive with this, and makes this the strongest of the batch. YE Pacific Hurricane  04:44, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope this becomes a powerful Iselle! --  Steve  820  ✉   22:25, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sorry about the confusion with these AoIs and there corresponding tropical waves. TWO can be quite ambiguous with which waves are which. This one is remnants of TD2 btw, currently over Central America. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  05:53, July 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI could gradually develop as it moves generally westwards. It is now on the NHC TWO with a near 0% of becoming tropical in the next two days and 30% in the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I believe that we might see an Iselle out of this AOI. Environmental conditions seem favorable enough, and I hope it won't be a weakling fail TS. --  Steve  820  ✉   16:51, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * We might, but we are arguably in a downward MJO phase for now, so it may have less time to develop that we normally would expect. CPAC is where it is at for now. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:58, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/80. YE Pacific Hurricane  17:07, July 30, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Shower and thunderstorm activity in ex-TD Two is disorganized ATM, but environmental conditions should favor gradually development as it moves gradually westwards. I think we could see a TC form in the next several days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict we'll see Iselle out of this. Environmental conditions are favorable enough! --  Steve  820  ✉   01:33, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
60/80. YE Pacific Hurricane  14:46, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 97E has become better organized, and with environmental conditions are conductive for additional development, it could become a tropical depression in the next day or two as it moves westwards. Chances for formation are now at 70% for the next 48 hours but remain at 80% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:29, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is about to be declared a depression by the end of the day. I hope we'll see a Hurricane Iselle out of this invest! I'm sick of these fails that do nothing but be name thiefs (Elida, Fausto, Wali, and Genevieve for example), and even though Hernan broke the streak, I hope Iselle becomes a hurricane too! --  Steve  820  ✉   19:44, July 31, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Iselle
Hi Iselle.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:05, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, hello there! Convection has wrapped up pretty quickly in the past few hours, and TAFB and SAB report Dvorak estimates of T2.0. Due to an ASCAT pass signaling gale-force winds in the eastern quadrant, we have Tropical Storm Iselle, with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) and a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). As a matter of fact, the NHC claims that estimate is conservative. With no VWS expected to halt Iselle's development and SST's of 27-28C, we could easily see intensification over the next three days. SHIPS forecasts a 44% chance of a 25 knot increase in winds in the next 24 hours and brings it to hurricane intensity around the time. The NHC, however, is less aggressive and gives the storm roughly 48 hours to become a hurricane. Located to the south of a mid-level ridge, Iselle should move relatively WNW for the next four days, until the ridge weakens and the storm slows down. It sure is a surprise to see Iselle present already. This is the fastest date for a season's tenth named storm since Howard in 1992 - which got that storm on July 27. This is quite a season! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:48, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle should hit 70 knots (80 mph) per the NHC, slightly stronger than Hernan. Also, Iselle's formation is the fourth earliest date for an EPAC season's tenth named storm, behind only 1970, 1985, and 1992. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:26, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * I am pretty sure that if she wants to she might be a major.Allanjeffs 23:38, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here we go again! I'm not 100% sure it will be a major, but it should be another hurricane. If it RI's, it'll have a chance to become a major. But models aren't that aggressive with it, and there could be modest wind shear. Still, a Cat 1 or even 2 is doable. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:40, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Convective tops are mainly to the north and east of Iselle's center, and an upper-level trough to the NW has enhanced poleward outflow. Based on TAFB and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates have pinpointed the NHC to raise Iselle's intensity to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). SHIPS continues to indicate a 40% chance of a 25 knot increase of winds in the next 24 hours. Steady intensification to the NHC forecast peak of 70 knots (80 mph) is definitely possible for the storm in the next couple of days, given the conditions ahead of it. However, after 72 hours, SST's will somewhat cool, prompting gradual weakening. The STR should steer Iselle generally WNW for the next few days, and after that, as the ridge degenerates into a low to mid-level trough, the storm should move more westwards. Meanwhile, the JTWC has issued its first advisory on Iselle with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h); they also forecast a peak of 70 knots (80 mph) but predict slightly more rapid weakening. Hopefully Iselle becomes a hurricane like Hernan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:46, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Very deep convection and a CDO feature have both developed in Iselle. Also, an AMSU microwave pass shows a partial eyewall in the core!!! Based on ASCAT-B data, the NHC has upgraded Iselle's winds to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) and lowered its pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Snap! Just like that, we have our season's fourth strongest storm in terms of windspeeds! With warm SST's and only light northeasterly shear ahead of it for the next 48 hours, Iselle should further strengthen; it is expected to hit 75 knots (85 mph, 135 km/h) by the latest NHC forecast. However, after the next couple of days, the environment will become more stable and Iselle should gradual weaken. As the STR to the storm's north persists, most models predict a generally WNW motion of Iselle over the next few days. After that, a trough should prompt more westward motion, based on the models. Regardless of what Iselle does in the future, I am proud of her accomplishments so far, and I hope she can RI, as she has the core to do so. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:06, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF brings this to 55 knts. Things are quickly escalating. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:11, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle has almost a full ring of convection now and is beginning to develop an eye-like feature in its western quadrant. Based on TAFB, SAB, and UW-Madison Dvroak estimates of 35, 55, and 63 kts, respectively, Iselle's intensity has been risen to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), confirming the ATCF estimates. The pressure is estimated to be at 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). For the next three days, the STR should continue to propel Iselle WNW. Afterwards, an amplifying mid-level trough offshore California, along with a mid-level high northeast of Hawaii, should steer the storm more westwards. Ten knots of northerly shear is affecting Iselle from the west, which may be why convection is not doing so great there. However, after 24 hours, the shear should subside, and combined with SST's of 26C and more stable air, Iselle could intensify into a modest 75 knot (85 mph) hurricane, gradually weakening hereafter. The JTWC is slightly more conservative, with winds of 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) being reported from them and gusting to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). Their forecast is rather similar to the JTWC's. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:12, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it becomes a hurricane! You have the potential, Iselle! In fact, I want to see it try to reach Category 2 strength, especially with its well-organized core. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:55, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, despite its bonafide structure, Iselle's convection has become a little ragged and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates have dropped from this morning. Iselle's intensity has been maintained, and the NHC notes it could stall intensitywise due to modest shear kicking in. Fortunately, that shear should abate and SST's of 26C will likely support additional intensification for the next few days. Also, the expected peak intensity from the NHC has been lowered to 70 knots (80 mph). The STR to Iselle's north should continue to drag it WNW for another three days or so, before a mid-level ridge slows it down and then turns it more westwards on days four and five. The JTWC has a rather similar forecast for Iselle. If Iselle does become a C2, Steve, it's going to be a stretch. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:51, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Iselle
Hurricane #4, coming right up! 65 kts/992 mbar as of the new advisory. I definitely like what Iselle is selling us. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:40, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steve may be right after all. At this rate, we could see a Cat 2. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:52, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep she might she has another 2 days. A cat 3 is not out of the way.Allanjeffs 05:48, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not bad, could easily become our 3rd major hurricane, and it'll be out to sea as well. The rainbands from Iselle could eventually reach Hawaii, but it should remain south of them in the long run. Ryan1000 08:32, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle has become better organized over the past several hours with a more well-defined inner core and a ragged eye feature present, based on satellite images and infrared data. Dvorak estimates are all over the place, but the NHC has calculated the average to be around 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) with a pressure of 988 mbar (hPa; 29.18 inHg) - Iselle has therefore displaced Hernan as our season's third strongest storm. A STR to the NW of the hurricane should continue its generally westwards motion for the next several days, with possible acceleration due to interaction with a ridge around 130W. Allan and Ryan, I'm not saying it isn't going to happen, but Iselle is in a region of decreasing SST's and moderate northeasterly shear. This will slow down the intensification pace, but the NHC still expect an overall favorable environment for another couple of days. They forecast a peak of 75 knots (85 mph), and I'd be a little more aggressive, calling for winds of 80 knots (90 mph). I won't be too surprised if Iselle hits C2 strength, but will be rather so if it becomes a major. Eventually, dry air and more significant shear will take over after a few days, prompting gradual weakening from the hurricane. I don't really care how strong Iselle gets since it's far away from land, but I do want something decent. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:11, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ok guys, Iselle has reached C2 strength. 100 mph/976 mbars! In fact I won't be surprised if it strengthens to a major. It wants to surprise us looks like!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF update has it at 95 knts/968 mbar. Will likely peak as a major tomorrow. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:30, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's expected to peak as a minimal major hurricane soon, but Andrew, the 5-day forecast now takes Iselle towards the Big Island of Hawaii as a tropical storm, so it might not be a total fishspinner. However, if it impacts Hawaii, don't expect it to be any worse than Flossie of last year. Ryan1000 10:58, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF makes it a major. Some models do bring it towards Hawaii as a high end TS/low-end Cat 1. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:21, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Could you please post a link to the ATCF file? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:31, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Iselle
Anyway, it just became official from NHC. 100 kts/965 mbar. Now I REALLY like what Iselle is selling us (pardon the pun, I couldn't resist) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:36, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks nice, could become a little bit stronger before weakening as it approaches Hawaii. Ryan1000 16:59, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iselle looks stunning on satellite imagery, I'm a bit surprised Iselle made it this far! It needs to weaken down a lot before approaching Hawaii, in fact, the last time I saw its forecast track it took it straight into Hawaii near the end of the forecast! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:30, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle: "I SELL WIND SHEAR!"  “i liek turtlez 18:53, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow! Nicely done, Iselle! Her eye cleared out on infrared satellite imagery, and the overall presentation has become slightly more symmetric. A combination of SAB, TAFB, and UW-Madison Dvorak estimates of 102, 90, and 110 kts have prompted the NHC to call Iselle our third major! Liz, Iselle isn't selling wind shear, she selling Amanda and Cristina her talent. ;) For the next few days, the hurricane should move steadily westwards due to ridging to its north, but it should slow down as the ridge weakens. From here, it should come near Hawaii due to the potential development of a mid-level high between Hawaii and California. Although vertical shear is no longer a problem, the thermodynamic environment is becoming more marginal, which should stop Iselle's intensification based on the NHC and JTWC forecasts. However, the NHC notes Iselle could still sneak in some more intensity, and I don't doubt that. Interesting fact - the statistical models show Iselle becoming stronger in the short-term, but the dynamical models show a stronger cyclone in the long run, near Hawaii. Regardless of what Iselle does, I hope only meteorologists need to remember it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:20, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * I knew it!!!  I had the feeling that she would become a major and I was right :) but I believe she could strength a little more or mantain intensity as she is sporting some annular characteristics.Allanjeffs 23:07, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * The cloud tops of Iselle have expanded abruptly in the past few hours, and the eye has become more distinct on satellite imagery. Convectional bands are beginning to disappear based on microwave imagery, and the Annular Hurricane Index is indicating an annular structure trying to form in the hurricane. This means Iselle will weaken very slowly albeit the increasing shear and decreasing SST's around it for the next 48 hours, until the even greater shear and even cooler SST's take over. Nevertheless, both the NHC and JTWC have kept the hurricane's intensity the same due to a consistency of intensity estimates. Most models forecast Iselle to maintain TS intensity until the Hawaiian Islands. The same westwards logic I described above is expected for the next three days until the mid-level high develops between Hawaii and California, causing a gradual WNW turn. At this point, Iselle is a threat to the Hawaiian islands, but it shouldn't be too bad for them. This is one impressive hurricane we've witnessed; please don't stop for now, Iselle! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:34, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Iselle (2nd time)
So a donut now. 95 knts. Right now, it is an interesting setup. A ridge should keep it W, but a trough could cause it too accelerate WNW. Questions is how far deep will the trough dig? Models may slightly overdue it, but again, Hawaii tends to reform the LLC of weak systems either north of south. They also likely overdue 93C and this interacting. The intensity forecast is quite tricky, the statistical models show steady weakening, but the dynamic models have the storm hanging on. If the system is a pest, it could pass through the island group, or if it is strong enough, make landfall. If it's not, and this will probably happen, it'll die before reaching the islands and/or pass north of it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:21, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Iselle (2nd time)
Annular by the looks of it; 110/958. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  07:08, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

All the girl names this season have rock with the exception of Elida. I count Genevieve in the rock party because she is a fighter and may become a strong typhoon in the Wpac.Allanjeffs 11:29, August 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dang, Iselle is a pretty impressive major. It could even have a shot at cat 4 given the supreme structure of the circulation atm, but it'll be weakening soon enough. Current forecast takes it just north of Hawaii as a TS, though they'll still have to watch out for high surf and potential flooding. Ryan1000 11:56, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF make this 115 knts. Holy shit. Just incredible. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:45, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * ...and the NHC makes this 120 kts/947 mbar! Atta girl Iselle, keep up the good work! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:38, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * The EPAC does it again!!! YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:50, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * WOW! Congrats, Iselle!!! I didn't expect you to get to C4 status! This is just incredible. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:56, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Very impressive hurricane if I do say so myself. And because it's an annular storm, it could hold onto it's intensity for a bit longer than normal EPac hurricanes would, but that's not good news for Hawaii in the long run, so don't get too hyped over this one as it could potentially cause damage and deaths in Hawaii. If Iselle was no threat to land whatsoever, I'd love this thing to no end. Julio behind it is also a potential long-term threat to the archapelago, but that's not anything we need to worry about, not for another week at least. Off-topic, but I made the 2014-15 SHem betting pools a week ago, if you're bored and want to make a bet or two on your time, go ahead. Ryan1000 20:20, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Too early to care for SHEM. :P Iselle is down to 115 knts, but threats for Hawaii continue. Recon will come in tomorrow. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:06, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * One thing I've noticed is that the NHC has reverted to incorrectly rounding 115 kts up to 135 mph, instead of 130 mph like they should (115 kts = 132.25 mph). In 2012, the SSHWS Category 4 borders were extended slightly so that 130 mph was the threshold, therefore solving the conversion problem. What was the point of doing that if the NHC was just going to go back to erroneously converting 115 kts to 135 mph? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:50, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Idk Dylan, Iselle is currently forecast to continue going down and hit the Big Island as a moderately strong TS with winds of 60 mph, though it also could do something like Flossie last year and nearly die before hitting them (which wouldn't surprise me, as shown by countless past Hawaian storms that tried to hit them from the east). Ryan1000 08:47, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Except conditions are more favorable now than then. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:05, August 5, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Iselle (3rd time)
Sharp weakening upon entering the CPAC, 95 kts/967 mbar now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:07, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still should make it to Hawaii as a mid-level TS. Really only has dry air as an issue after today. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, its now in the CPac, and should reach Hawaii as a TS soon. They might feel quite a bit of impacts. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:01, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Latest sattelite imagery shows that dry air has really taken its toll on the once-annular hurricane, I'd be surprised if this is a cat 2 when recon reaches it (they're leaving from San Fran California to investigate this hurricane). Hawaii better watch out for flooding from this and possibly Julio when it follows up behind Iselle, though the latest NHC forecast takes it on a track that could have it miss Hawaii to the north, but because Julio is farther south than Iselle and has more favorable conditions (since Iselle is stomaching the dry air right now), it could be stronger when it nears the islands in about a week. Tropical Storm Watches are up for the Big Island, and flooding could be anywhere from 4 to 8 inches, with isolated peaks that could be twice as big. Ryan1000 00:44, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'd just like to mention that someone created a satirical Hurricane Iselle Twitter account. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:29, August 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * She might be at most 45 to 50mph storm when it reach Hawaii its rarely that a storm makes landfall in Hawaii. The same might happen to Julio.Allanjeffs 07:38, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Down to 80 knts. Conditions are improving though. Should not weaken that much anymore. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:50, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Allan, if Iselle manages to hang on to TS intensity when it hits Hawaii, it would actually be the first tropical storm to ever make landfall on the Big Island, as every other storm weakened to a depression when it hit (Flossie last year was forecast to do so as a 40 mph storm but it chickened out and missed a landfall on the islands completely). Flossie did still bring some welcoming rain to them however, some flooding was reported but nothing was too severe. I expect the same to be with Iselle, though hopefully Julio isn't so strong when he gets there. Ryan1000 19:45, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict that Iselle will weaken to a depression right before it hits, because a tropical storm landfall in Hawaii is so rare. It's still possible it might make landfall as a TS though, a very rare occurrence. Hopefully Hawaii won't feel a lot of impacts once Iselle arrives. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:33, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Why will it weaken so much? It has been intensifying as of late and is up to 80 knts. I think at this point it is more likely to be a hurricane at landfall than a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:21, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised Iselle has managed to hold her own in the only marginally favorable CPac environment. It's 90 mph now, and hurricane warnings are up for all of the big island, TS warnings go northwards to Oahu, and a TS watch is up for Kauai. Residents are stocking up, hopefully it won't be too bad. Ryan1000 03:02, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * It could even make landfall as a hurricane now, that's just insanely rare. Hopefully Hawaii is prepared for this nearly once-in-a-lifetime occurrence! (maybe it's not that rare but who knows?) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:11, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually, it'll more likely make landfall as a strong TS. It appears to be weakening, down to 80 mph/986 mbars according to CPHC. Hurricane warnings are still up though. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:13, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF keeps it at 70 knts. It's around 15 hours to landfall and is about to enter some very warm water. Granted, the Great Hawaiian Shear is kicking in, but it has not been too strong thus far. It looks pretty good overall. Idk, it's gonna be close. Still, this could be very bad. Heavy rains, waves, high winds (Hawaii homes are not very sturdy), lighting and power outages. Main concern is the Big Island (could see some 100 knt+ plus wind gusts in higher terrain, which there is a ton in the Big Island. There is even snow on the highest one, Mauna Kea), but all islands are under a TS warning. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:52, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Most of the "great shear" is actually north of Iselle and it's not expected to cut it short of being at least a strong TS at landfall. The Big Island is the main area under threat from Iselle, though the latest track from Iselle on sattelite imagery shows a slight jog due west. If this continues, it might end up just clipping the southern end of the Big Island (which would be good news for them, as most buildings in Hawaii aren't meant to withstand hurricanes), but regardless of how high the winds might be, my biggest concern for the Big Island remains the heavy rains Iselle will bring, which could reach 16 or more inches in isolated locales on the peaks of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea. I don't expect the other islands to get much from Iselle other than some isolated rain showers and high surf, but still, Hawaii better be on the watch from this. Residents are stocking up and ready to ride out the storm. Stay tuned, this could get nasty... Ryan1000 19:07, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * The ATCF puts this at 18.7N. South Point is at 18.9N. It should hit Hawaii, given it has .2 N to gain and about 11 hours till landfall. It's been gaing .4N per advisory cycle as of late. The mountains could spit it out though, and may cause a SSW motion after landfall. Yes, the Great Hawaiian Shear is moderate, but SST's get warmer, and at best, it'll be a 60 knt TS landfall. If convection re-fires, it'll be a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:45, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Part of the southwestern eyewall has collapsed, so it's more likely now that it'll be a strong TS at landfall, but if convection re-fires near the center like you said, it also might hang on to minimal cat 1 at landfall with 75-80 mph winds. While the Big Island isn't very "big" compared to most hurricanes, Iselle is rather small for a hurricane, and you're right YE, the two nearly 14,000 foot tall volcanoes on the island could shred up Iselle's small circulation and kill it before reaching the other islands, which would be good news for them, but bad for the Big Island as that would squeeze all the rainfall out of Iselle and cause flash flooding. Ryan1000 20:04, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yea, looking at it now, it is probs a 55-60 knt TS at landfall. It may even be downgraded to a TS at next adv, based on recon, though I'd lean towards keeping it as a hurricane. Regarding the mountains, I doubt it'll be enough to kill it. Might send it south and cause the MLC and LLC to separate. Remember, it'll be over it for just a few hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:36, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually, the new advisory still keeps it as a cat 1, though slightly weaker now, down to 75 mph and pressure rose to 991 mbars. Forecast to make landfall on the Big Island as a 65 mph storm, which, while not a hurricane, could still be enough to cause some wind damage, not to mention the flooding rain that'll come along with it. Although it won't be over land for long, considering the rather small size of Iselle's circulation, being over the Big Island for even just a few hours could disrupt it enough as to where it won't threaten the other islands that much, if at all. Ryan1000 21:05, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * It has onshore in 9 hours as a 60 knt TS. So, you're incorrect there. Iselle's circulation isn't that small. It's about average. That's why it's been able to withstand so much. As for weakening over land, I still disagree it'll dissipate it inland. There's still good agreement it'll come offshore as a 40-50 knt TS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:12, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ah, my bad, I just came back from checking the unisys best track, it wasn't updated with the new advisory, which weakened it slightly to 75 mph. Eh, there's not much difference between 65 and 70 mph anyways. I haven't seen a hurricane hit Hawaii from the east before, but since it is a rather small island chain, an oncoming hurricane probably won't be deterred by their mountains as much as they would from a place like Taiwan, Cuba, or Hispaniola. Ryan1000 21:23, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Recon reports indicate that it may have intensified slightly. Iselle refuses to quit. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:25, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hawaii especially the island where is going to make landfall has big peaks it might disrupt the circulation. not destroy it but make damage to it.Allanjeffs 23:50, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, you may be right YE, convection has re-fired near the center over the last few satellite frames and Iselle's winds may actually go back up to 80 mph by the next advisory . EDIT:Intermediate Advisory 31A is out, and it looks like the winds did go back up to 80 mph. Stubborn little bitch... Ryan1000 23:52, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * And it might even make landfall as a hurricane now. Yeah, it does seem to be such a stubborn storm. Prepare, Hawaii! Let's hope it won't be a destructive storm for those Hawaiians. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:49, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still looks like it's holding steady, but may be jerking a bit south. It could after all pass just south, meaning no landfall, based on radar. Satellite suggests it may be otherwise. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:37, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Even if it only clips the southern end of the Big Island, most of the moisture is north of the circulation, so flooding will almost be a definite either way. It's very unlikely Iselle will miss a landfall completely, unless it pulls the trick Flossie did last year (which doesn't seem likely at this point). Ryan1000 01:52, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * If it continues on its course per radar, it'll pass just north of South Point. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:15, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks very elongated and falling apart. Down to 65 knts. Recon should find it weaker, and thus, I'd be surprised if it is still a hurricane at landfall. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:12, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Iselle has clearly been hanging on, just like Genny. Actually, the last recon flight found winds of 72 knots, but the CPHC lowered the winds and pressure to 992 mbar (hPa; 29.30 inHg) to compensate for a ragged satellite apperance. It will be a sretch for Iselle to regain any intensity because of shear and the terrain of Hawaii, although SST's could promote some reintensification. The STR to the north of the hurricane should cause it to move WNW and slow down for the next couple of days, so I think landfall is very likely for Iselle. What I worry most for Hawaii is the fact that its mountainous terrain could actually boost the wind and rain effects from the hurricane. Much of the Big Island will shortly experience gale-force winds, spreading to Oahu, Maui, and eventually Kauai. Rainfall of five to eight, possibly even twelve inches, could cause serious landslides in Hawaii, and this isn't good for a region where some buildings can't withstand the power of these monsters. If you're by the coast, watch out for some heavy surf and a minor storm surge. I see little reason to believe why Iselle won't make landfall over the Big Island as at least a moderate TS, and this could be a big event for them. Also, a little trivia - this is Iselle's strongest incarnation on record, beating her 1984 predesscor by 10 knots. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:41, August 8, 2014(UTC)

Tropical Storm Iselle (2nd time)
Sorry friends Iselle weaken to 60 kt even though is about to make landfall in the big island. Mountainous terrain of the big island may disrupt the circulation. Like Dr. Masters say in his blog Iselle might move in the highest peak for a storm not even the mountainous terrain of Hispañola compares.Allanjeffs 10:55, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Something very interesting meteorologically is happening. Based on radar, it finally looks to be coming onshore, but I'm waiting for the 12z ATCF fix. If not, this could miss landfall. Looks the mountans are messing with it as I feared earlier. It's almost stalled, which makes flooding much much worse. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:39, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * According to the CPHC, it has made landfall! YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:10, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Heh, so it finally made landfall. Hopefully the residents of Big Island will ride out the storm without any problems, especially due to the rareness of the Hawaiian landfall. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:07, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well YE, looks like I was right from before, the high mountains on the big island did deprive Iselle of all of her deep convection. She's now staggering west south of the other islands, and will likely die tomorrow. Also, she nearly fell flat on her face before landfall and rainfall wasn't as bad as it could've been. Flooding could still be a concern for some places, but they've probably seen worse from the monsoon rains that hit them almost every year. Ryan1000 21:26, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * I said it too. The mountains of Hawaii are really tall some peaks are even taller than the ones of Hispañola. The center of circulation of Iselle is devoid of convection and it might be declare a remnant soon if convection does not return.Allanjeffs 22:09, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * The volcanoes did take their toll on Iselle. Lots of shower bands are still present on satellite imagery, but the core structure has been stripped away. The weakening of the STR to its north will cause the storm to slow down for the next day or two, before accelerating under the SW periphery of a new high-pressure area. Winds are down to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) with a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg). TS warnings are still up for Maui, Oahu, and Kauai, where downed trees and power lines have been reported in the latter. Well, Iselle has just become a huge record breaker. For the first time since Iniki, gale-force winds have been noted in Hawaii from a TC and the Big Island has witnessed their second TS landfall in history. I feel glad Iselle powered down quite a bit before unleashing her effects on the region, or else it could have been much worse. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:02, August 9, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Iselle
It happened. All deep convection has been stripped from Iselle and no Dvorak estimates could be obtained. NOAA buoy winds suggest all that is left to this once grand system is a remnant low. Winds are down to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) per the CPHC. Most models forecast ex-Iselle becoming a trough by Monday. However, she's not quite done yet. Additional rainfall of one to two inches can still be expected in some regions of Hawaii, along with diminishing surf. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:50, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * It doesn't seem overall effects were that severe for Hawaii from Iselle. Reports suggest there were some downed trees and power lines, as well as minor sreet flooding and roof damage, but that's about it. Overall, it was a rather minor storm for the islands in terms of impacts, and no deaths were reported from Iselle. Ryan1000 11:00, August 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Luckily it wasn't as bad as I thought it would been. It was still a very rare storm though. So long, Iselle! It was great tracking you even though you caused Hawaiian impacts! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:59, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle's remnants are still active 250 mi WSW of Lihue. Atmospheric conditions are unfavorable for redevelopment, as I don't expect anything else from the system as it keeps trucking westwards. Chances of regeneration are currently near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Bye sweetie thanks for the show.Allanjeffs 10:40, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Iselle's remnants are off the TWO. Thank you for your very interesting performance, Miss Iselle! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:13, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Bye Iselle, thanks for the entertainment! :D -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:21, August 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * One fatality was reported from flooding in Kauai. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:00, August 12, 2014 (UTC)