Forum:2019 Pacific typhoon season

93W.INVEST
In the open Pacific, currently code yellow on JTWC. JMA also recognizes this as a low pressure area. Hopefully the next typhoon will come from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:01, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still code yellow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:07, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 93W)
Code orange now, and JMA considers this system as a TD already. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:20, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09W
Now designated as 09W by JTWC. Their forecast shows a typhoon for this storm before striking Japan. Could this finally be our 2nd typhoon of the season?  Sandy 156   :)  21:19, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Francisco
And it is now a TS. Forecast to become a typhoon before hitting/affecting the Korean Peninsula. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:09, August 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Rainfall is going to be a big threat with this system, and knowing how impacts from storms like Khanun are in the Korean Peninsula, this is quite worrying. Rainfall of a little over a foot in extreme Southern Japan was predicted last I saw. Still, finally we have what might be our first typhoon in half a year. T  G  2 0 1 9 15:29, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Francisco
And now JTWC only has the peak for Francisco at 50 kt, looks like we have to wait a bit longer for our first typhoon since February. I was hoping that Francisco will be a typhoon, but guess not (unless it defines the forecast).  Sandy 156   :)  19:34, August 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * Anyways, JMA upgraded Francisco to an STS a while ago. This still has a good chance to become a typhoon. JTWC was lowballing it this morning when there were surface estimates of nearly 60 mph. T  G  2 0 1 9 19:52, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Not losing hope on Francisco becoming a typhoon yet, hopefully it’ll be one soon.  Sandy 156   :)  19:58, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC and JMA are not expecting a typhoon from Francisco, time’s running out for him.  Sandy 156   :)  20:23, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Francisco
Scratch what I said above, Francisco intensifies into a typhoon according to JMA. Finally, about time.  Sandy 156   :)  14:29, August 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Francisco (2nd time)
And Francisco is now back to TS status, as it is now in the Korea-Japan area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:11, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Francisco
Died yesterday. Ryan1000 14:01, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Our first typhoon since February (followed by two more even stronger ones). Hopefully it wasn't too bad for Japan and Korea, although sadly Wiki's season effects reports 1 death. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
And another one pops up in Tropical Tidbits; this time it's in the Philippine Sea. Though not yet on JTWC, this may become a TD and be named Hanna by PAGASA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:07, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:20, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * GFS and Euro both take this into South Korea as an intense typhoon, right after Francisco, which is worrying. Thankfully, that is pretty far out, but it seems worrying that both are on board with this. T  G  2 0 1 9 19:24, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 94W)
TD on JMA, code red on JTWC – TCFA issued too. And this is becoming a worrying system in the long run, if the weather models and forecasts come into fruition. Still not named Hanna by PAGASA, but the southwest monsoon enhanced by this system has already killed a dozen people, mostly due to sea mishaps in Guimaras province in Visayas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:40, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Hanna (94W)
And it has been finally named by PAGASA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:35, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lekima (Hanna)
And JMA upgrades 10W to a TS. Still a TD per JTWC and PAGASA though. Forecast to become a relatively strong typhoon in the coming days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:37, August 4, 2019 (UTC)


 * I found it funny that JTWC said that it was 35 kt, but kept it as a TD again for this advisory. Anyways, ASCAT showing winds of 40-45 kt already. T  G  2 0 1 9 17:20, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Also, since the WPac naming list cycles around roughly once every 6 years and PAGASA's naming list rotates once every 4 years, they often line up once every 12 years, so you can sometimes get a storm, like Lekima, with the same PAGASA name once per 12 years (the 2007 Lekima was also named Hanna by PAGASA). Neat coincidence. But this Lekima will probably turn northward and recurve to hit South/North Korea somewhere, not Vietnam like the 2007 Lekima. Ryan1000 05:15, August 5, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Lekima (Hanna)
Both JMA and PAGASA upgraded Lekima to a STS; only a matter of time before it intensifies into a typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Looks like Lekima will hit Taiwan as a cat 2-3 storm according to the JTWC before recurving northeast towards Japan or South Korea. Rainfall might be a threat if it moves slowly enough over Taiwan. Ryan1000 16:42, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Lekima (Hanna)
Was upgraded to a typhoon by both JMA and JTWC.  Sandy 156   :)  00:59, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Woah, forecast peak was raised to 145 mph by the JTWC, if trends keep up Lekima might even become a cat 5. Fortunately, Lekima is now forecast to miss Taiwan, but unfortunately, Lekima is now expected to come very close to making a direct hit on Shanghai as a 100 mph storm. Hopefully this changes course before then, a strong typhoon in Shanghai could inflict very serious damage. Ryan1000 11:15, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Just weaken for crying out loud. We don't want leukaemia infections. Bartfart12666 (talk) 15:02, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast peak now raised by JTWC to 150 mph (130 kts), which would make Lekima the 2nd [unofficial] 'super typhoon' of the season, just after Wutip. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:29, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * And Lekima becomes the 2nd super typhoon of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:38, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

Lekima might briefly become a cat 5 before passing through the southern Ryukyu Islands of Japan, but it will weaken before hitting China. Lekima might also hit further south than Shanghai at this point and weaken to a tropical storm before crossing over the city, but as Rumbia showed last year, even a TS in Shanghai can be fairly destructive from floodwaters. Ryan1000 14:01, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 120 knots (140 mph) according to JTWC and 95 knots (110 mph) according to JMA. This has been a pretty frightening system, although luckily it's forecast to weaken from here on out. The southern Ryukyu Islands probably suffered through quite a bit with this storm. Hopefully it won't be too bad for China. Another piece of terrifying news: It sunk 3 boats in the Guimaras Strait, causing 31 deaths! 🙁 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall in Zhejiang
And both JTWC and JMA tell that Lekima has made landfall in Zhejiang as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon. Hopefully the damage won't be that severe; the fatalities in the Philippines are already enough, I must say. Anonymous 2.0 (talk)

Tropical Storm Lekima (Hanna) (2nd time)
Downgraded to a tropical storm (JMA and JTWC) over land. Hopefully any impacts in China are light. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:16, August 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * BBC now reporting that at least 22 people were killed by Lekima in China. This is becoming increasingly disturbing. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:48, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

The 22 deaths in China coupled with the 31 from boats sinking near the Philippines is 53 deaths so far, unfortunately. Damage is still unknown by may be extensive when all is said and done. Ryan1000 04:41, August 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * So sad, this storm is worse than I thought. 😦 Still a TS, but barely, on JMA. JTWC has issued their final warning. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:11, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Death toll upped to 75 and damages are now estimated at over 2 billion...first retirement candidate, anyone? Ryan1000 13:25, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lekima (Hanna)
No longer on JMA's main page but still up as a TD on their weather map. What a devastating storm. This probably will be retired, totals are now >$3.47 billion and 76 deaths. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:28, August 13, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Lekima (Hanna)
Dead for real now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:16, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, Lekima is now the 10th costliest typhoon on record, inflicting $7.4 billion. This will very likely get the axe, unless it gets snubbed. Bye Lekima, you likely will never be used again.  Sandy 156   :)  23:53, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Lekima is now China's second costliest typhoon, only behind 2013's Fitow. 56 deaths in the said country too, bringing the total fatality count to 89. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:31, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Whoa, what a monster. This is certainly going to be axed next spring. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:34, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest update has it as the costliest in Chinese history! I guess it's goodbye to the name "Lekima" for sure now. They are a bit weird with retirements, but somehow snubbing "Lekima" would be the worst mistake they could ever make. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:23, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Krosa
Forgot to update this page, sorry. Anyway, this was formerly Invest 95W, and intensified to a TS today -- in both JMA and JTWC's scales. Expected to affect the same areas as Francisco. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:10, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Krosa
This large system became a typhoon for a while, 75 mph according to JMA and 80 mph according to JTWC. Pressure is 975 mbar.  Sandy 156   :)  04:08, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's now Category 3 on the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:40, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC now has it at high-end C2 intensity (95 knots/110 mph) and JMA has it at 85 knots (100 mph). Forecast to weaken gradually and then stabilize in intensity, possibly reintensifying on the 13th. Looking like a long-run Japan threat. At least the WPac is finally getting more active and producing typhoons (compared to the pathetic TS after TS streak last month). But it just sucks that these typhoons have to go threaten land. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, August 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * Still a typhoon by JMA, JTWC has downgraded it to a tropical storm. Will continue to be stable in intensity over the next few days with reintensification by the 14th. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:17, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Krosa
JMA has downgraded it to a severe tropical storm, but expected to reintensify until the 14th and then weaken again. Japan is now being threatened at the moment. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:14, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is subtropical imo.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:52, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Doesn't surprise me, it's got a lot of northern convection worn off, partly from upwelling over its own wake since Krosa hasn't been moving very far over the past few days due to weak steering currents. Japan will likely (eventually) be hit sometime later this week, but Krosa will probably be a tropical storm by that time. Ryan1000 13:25, August 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * I agree with Isaac that this storm seems to have subtropical tendencies. It's been looking quite pathetic on satellite. Still forecast to reintensify a bit by tonight/tomorrow and then weaken as it moves through Japan. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:31, August 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * It has passed through Japan and expected to degenerate from here on out. Still holds as a STS on JMA - 50 knots (60 mph), 980 mbar. JTWC has it down to 40 knots (45 mph). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:30, August 15, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Krosa (2nd time)
Down to TS strength according to JMA and JTWC has issued their final warning. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:01, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Krosa
It has transitioned to an extratropical low, goodbye! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:17, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
New invest west of Luzon. Appears only on Tropical Tidbits, but PAGASA has recognized this system as a low pressure area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 96W)
Apparently, JMA has upgraded this system to a TD, according to their secondary weather map (the weather chart). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:18, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:51, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on JTWC's site but JMA still holds on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:55, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 96W)
No longer on JMA's website. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
New invest according to Tropical Tidbits. This one is at the open Pacific, near the Marianas/Caroline Islands/Palau area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:26, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Finally on JTWC's outlook with code yellow. Now located closer to the Philippines. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:38, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange now, will this become WPac's next TS? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:20, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 97W/Ineng)
Code red, now a JMA TD! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  01:59, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * The GFS ensembles for this initially take it northwest but then northeast towards Japan, but the CMC ensembles on Tidbits take it into Taiwan and China as a 987 mbar category 1 typhoon. If it's named, it'd become Bailu, which just so happens to be the replacement name for perhaps the most infamous typhoon of the 21st century six years ago... Ryan1000 04:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Apparently, PAGASA initiated advisories on this system 12 hours ago. Still a TD as of the latest one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:41, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bailu (Ineng)
And JMA has upgraded 97W to a TS. JTWC yet to update. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:36, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Expected to strike Taiwan and China as a likely typhoon. I hope it won't end up being destructive. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Bailu (Ineng)
Upgraded hours ago and is currently approaching the southern tip of Taiwan and the northernmost part of the Batanes islands of the Philippines. JMA still expects Bailu to formally become a typhoon, though JTWC forecasts this system to peak at 110 kph (60 kts/70 mph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:43, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now expected to peak at this intensity. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:26, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bailu (Ineng) (2nd time)
Now down to TS strength according to the JMA, 45 knots (50 mph)/992 mb. It has also passed Taiwan and expected to make landfall in China pretty soon. JTWC has it at 50 knots (60 mph). Hopefully it's nothing destructive or deadly for the regions. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:14, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Final warning issued by JTWC but remains as a TS. JMA concurs. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:29, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Sadly killed 3 people already. Hopefully it doesn't get any worse. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:52, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Bailu (Ineng)
Downgraded to a tropical depression over China. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Bailu (Ineng)
About dead now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:55, August 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately for Ineng, it inflicted Php1.1 billion in the Philippines, which means it will be gone.  Sandy 156   :)  04:22, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Another invest on Tropical Tidbits, this one's northeast of Guam. Also low chance on JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:27, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 98W)
JMA is actually calling it a TD on their weather map, although it barely looks like anything on satellite right now. Still code yellow on JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:15, August 18, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 98W)
Doesn't appear on JMA's weather map anymore but remains code yellow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:37, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now about dead for good. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:21, August 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * If you check out Tidbits, this invest is expected to move into the Central Pacific from the west and then turn into the cold, far north Pacific. It probably won't become much of anything. 97W might though. Ryan1000 04:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Up on JMA's weather map near Taiwan, with no mention anywhere else. Not even invested... weird. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  18:45, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * JMA has dropped it. Strange how nothing else mentioned this. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:10, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits, located near Namonuito Atoll out in the open Pacific. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧
 * Now visible in JTWC's website. Code yellow as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:44, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Raised to medium chance/code orange. Expected to pass through Luzon early next week. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:09, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 99W/Jenny)
Now up as a TD on JMA, and JTWC has issued a TCFA as it becomes code red. Here comes Podul! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:46, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now named Jenny by PAGASA. Podul is coming. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:16, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13W (Jenny)
Finally upgraded by JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:24, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Podul (Jenny)
Now upgraded to a tropical storm by the JMA, named Podul.  Sandy 156   :)  04:31, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * God forbid this becomes Ketsana/Ondoy 2.0. Track is similar, intensity is similar, movement is similar, precipitation is similar... basically everything. Metro Manila and surrounding areas are expected to accumulate rainfall totals that might exceed 100-150 mm starting today up until tomorrow. While this storm may help the dams to reach their normal levels again – Luzon dams have plummeted to below normal levels due to the El Niño earlier this year – significant flooding might occur throughout the island thanks to the saturation it received from Lekima/Hanna and Bailu/Ineng. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:47, August 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Things look pretty similar for both storms in the Philippines, I agree that I hope it's nothing significantly flooding or devastating to the region. After the Philippines, Ketsana was a Category 2 equivalent though, and Podul is not expected to match it unless a sudden RI episode occurs. It's not forecast to become any stronger than 65 mph/55 knots. Podul is also forecast to strike northern Vietnam and Hainan - unless a deviation to the south occurs, it won't landfall in central Vietnam like Ketsana did. As of right now, JTWC still refuses to call it a TS, while JMA has it as a weak tropical storm (40 mph/998 mb). It is now just starting to leave the Philippines. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:54, August 27, 2019 (UTC)

Fortunately, Podul wasn't as bad as I thought. Seems that the Philippines dodged any significant impacts from this storm, mainly due to the fact that its convection was displaced at the time when it crossed Luzon. Vietnam should watch out for this though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:11, August 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * That's good, hopefully Vietnam and Hainan come off easy as well. JTWC has upped it to a tropical storm while JMA has it at 50 mph. Only slight intensification expected before landfall. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:51, August 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * This has made landfall and is weakening over Indochina. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:05, August 29, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Podul (Jenny)
Now a TD over land. Should die out very soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:02, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Podul (Jenny)
...aaand it's dead. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:18, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (90W.INVEST)
Currently near the IDL and expected to cross into this basin later today. Already invested and declared a TD by JMA. Looks to be a potentially significant Lingling with all that ocean up ahead. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:05, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC, along with 91W. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:03, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still code yellow. This is taking its sweet time (and lots of water ahead of it) to develop. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:33, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:02, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code red now. WPac on fireeee! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:15, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14W
Now designated as TD 14W by the JTWC. Forecast to be 60 mph by the 6th.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 21:13, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecasted to intensify pretty slowly though. If a typhoon comes from this, it won't be until the end of this week or even later. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:07, September 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Upgraded to a tropical storm by JTWC... still a TD by JMA. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:51, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Faxai
Finally named Faxai by JMA (but this post is several hours late though). May become a long-term threat to Japan though. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:16, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast to potentially strike Tokyo as a Category 1 or 2-strength typhoon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:12, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Faxai
Upgraded to a severe Tropical storm and expected to become a typhoon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:07, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Faxai
Now a typhoon. Looking increasingly worse for the Tokyo area... but at least they are well-equipped. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (91W.INVEST)
And another invest that isn't visible in JTWC's page has been categorized as a TD by JMA. This one is already on Tidbits. 91W is currently at the northeast of Luzon; PAGASA considers this as a low pressure area and is not expected to intensify further. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:05, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC, along with 90W. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:03, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Raised to medium/code orange now. Expected to move to the South China Sea. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:26, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Kabayan)
Upgraded by PAGASA to a TD, TCFA issued by JTWC. Code red now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:00, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kajiki (Kabayan)
JMA has named the system, although JTWC keeps it a TD. Forecasts conflicting right now, JTWC forecasts landfall and dissipation over Indochina but the JMA has it moving back out east into the SCS and intensify. The forecast uncertainty could be caused by interaction with 94W. It's crazy how close they are. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:56, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kajiki (Kabayan)
Downgraded to a depression, JTWC final warning. Quite the name-stealer we have here. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:58, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * JMA has also issued its final advisory. Seems that the 94W-Kajiki merger flopped. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:39, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still hasn't been dropped from JMA's weather map yet. Now appears to be moving along the Chinese coast with a 1000 mbar pressure. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:23, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
Yet another invest appears on Tidbits. This one is near Yap, and is expected to parallel the eastern coast of the Philippines and eventually hit southwestern Japan. Not yet on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:05, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * This seems to have good model support and might be quite significant when it nears Korea and Japan. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:05, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Also code orange now. The race for Lingling and Kajiki is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:31, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (92W.INVEST)
Looks like this is a JMA TD as well. We could even get up to Faxai if all of these become named. The most active basin on Earth is finally on a roll after the somewhat quiet mid-late August period, and we could get some more possible major typhoons out of this and 90W. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:24, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code red too; TCFA also issued by JTWC. Expected to become Liwayway in PAGASA's (future) advisories, not sure if this would be Lingling or Kajiki. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:01, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Liwayway/92W)
Has been named by PAGASA as 91W/Kabayan immediately leaves its jurisdiction (only 4 hours after that system was named). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lingling (Liwayway)
Upgraded to a TS by all agencies involved. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:28, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Lingling (Liwayway)
Upgraded to a STS by JMA and forecast to be a potentially formidable typhoon passing through the Ryukyu Islands and threatening Korea. The names this system has are also pretty funny, lol. The WPac and PAGASA sure have some interesting names. Also of note, this year's PAGASA list has the strange names Yoyoy and Zigzag coming up, although I have doubts we'll get that far this year. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:01, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Lingling (Liwayway)
It has intensified to a typhoon, the first since Krosa. Looks like this could peak as at least a C3-equivalent. Korea and the Ryukyu Islands need to watch out. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:56, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a C2-intensity typhoon according to both agencies. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:38, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensified to a Category 4, passed through Miyakojima. Current strength: 110 mph/175 kph (10-min) / 130 mph/215 kph (1-min) . Pressure is at 940 mbars (hPa). Apparently, it has peaked at 145 mph/230 kph earlier, making it almost a super typhoon (albeit unofficial). Like Dorian in the Atlantic, this is also not looking good down the road, as Lingling is expected to be a typhoon once it reaches the Korean Peninsula. In fact, JTWC's forecast track has put Lingling on a collision course with North Korea: if that materializes, it would be the first time that a typhoon, let alone a storm, makes landfall in North Korea itself (and not affect it via a SoKor landfall); JTWC forecasts a Category 2 landfall. Lingling is expected to have a secondary peak of 120 kts (140 mph/220 kph) before gradually weakening to 100 kts (185 kph/115 mph) as it nears the Koreas. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 11:49, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow I didn't know that a typhoon has never struck North Korea before. Kompasu 2010 was close though and Prapiroon 2000 struck just after weakening to a STS. Bolaven 2012 and Chan-hom 2015 struck as TSs. Currently, JMA still keeps this below major hurricane status (90 knots - 105 mph, 940 mbar) while JTWC has it as a powerful 140 mph beast. Pretty big difference between both agencies. It has been passing through the Ryukyu Islands as I speak. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:20, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Prapiroon in 2000 was still close to typhoon strength when it struck NoKo though, and it was the costliest storm to hit the Korean Peninsula on record according to it's WP article. Hopefully Lingling isn't worse than Prapiroon, but if it hits near P'Yongyang as a category 2 it could be very destructive. Ryan1000 12:55, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently Lingling briefly became a super typhoon, but right now it is back down to a Category 3-equivalent typhoon. Still a major threat to the Korean Peninsula as of the moment. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:08, September 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Downgraded further to a C2-equivalent as it approaches Korea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:10, September 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now a C1-equivalent as it nears landfall in North Korea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:59, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

September
Added this section already, especially given the fact that there are two JMA TDs and one invest which might form in September that are currently being monitored in the WPac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:42, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
Another invest on Tropical Tidbits, located out in the open Pacific. This basin really is on fire. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:11, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still a low on JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:54, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (93W.INVEST)
JMA has upped this to a depression and it's located to the east of the Philippines. Likely to become Peipah (assuming 14W becomes Faxai) and Marilyn. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:32, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression (93W)
Or maybe not. JMA has downgraded this to a low, but there's plenty of sea ahead of it, so it's never too late, I guess? Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 17:14, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on Tropical Tidbits. Look at 95W for development. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:14, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (SCS between 91W & the Philippines)
Apparently JMA has upgraded this to a TD. Still not present in JTWC's page though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:31, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Scratch that. This is actually at the South China Sea. May be absorbed by 91W though, as the latter system is actually forecast to move eastward after making a turn near Hainan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:54, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (94W.INVEST)
It's actually been invested and added to JTWC's page with a code red (TCFA issued). A bit strange how it's developing so close to Kajiki, they almost seem like one single system due to the monsoon's influence. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:05, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on JMA's weather map, but still code red on JTWC. Seems that Kajiki will either merge with this one or completely absorb it. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:01, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression (94W.INVEST)
Looks like this is dying out or merging with Kajiki. TCFA cancelled. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:00, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
New invest in the middle of the Pacific. Code yellow as of the moment. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:10, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * A candidate for Peipah. Hopefully it'll be a fishspinner. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:12, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (96W.INVEST)
A wild depression has popped up near Taiwan. Already invested but not on JTWC's outlook yet. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:01, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Ryan1000's Retirement Predictions
With ten storms so far, and since Lekima caused considerable damage and loss of life in China, what are your thoughts on retirements thus far? Mine are here:

JMA: PAGASA: There's mine...for now. Ryan1000 13:25, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pabuk - 20% - Made for the second consecutive typhoon season with a year-crossing storm, with over 150 million USD damage in Thailand, but the death toll was low, and it's not too likely to be retired.
 * Wutip - 1% - Strongest (and only category 5) February typhoon on record, and the second-earliest WPac cat 5 after Ophelia in 1958, but fortunately it remained mostly at sea, with only minor damage to Guam.
 * Sepat - 0% - The minor rain in Japan doesn't justify any chance.
 * Mun - 1% - Small damage and a few deaths won't cut it, and southern China has seen worse.
 * Danas - 2% - Rather minor storm.
 * Nari - 0% - See Sepat.
 * Wipha - 2% - Wasn't much different than Mun.
 * Francisco - 5% - Caused some damage and a death in Japan and South Korea, but will probably stay.
 * Lekima - 90% - Now this...THIS storm has a fairly good chance at going. Killed at least 89 people with over 7 billion in damage, mostly from flooding and storm surge. Possibly the second-costliest typhoon ever in China, behind only 2013's Fitow. Shanghai may have dodged the worst part of the storm, but they still got hit quite hard. Hard enough to be retired? Most likely.
 * Krosa - 2% - Killed 2 people with some minor damage, but won't be retired.
 * Bailu - 25% - Ineng may meet the Philippines retirement criteria but I doubt Bailu himself will go.
 * Podul - 4% - Minimal impacts at most.
 * Lingling - ?? - Still active, but might become severe for North Korea.
 * Kajiki - 1% - Stalled for some time near Vietnam but impacts are forgettable.
 * Faxai - ?? - Still active, but expected to hit near Tokyo as a minimal typhoon.
 * Ineng - 100% - Meets the damage criteria of at least 1 billion PHP, so bye.
 * All other names - 0% - No other names have met their mandatory retirement criteria (1 billion PHP and/or 300 deaths), so nothing else is getting retired here.

TG's Retirements

 * Pabuk: 5% - To be honest, Pabuk was a fairly notable system (mostly for the NIO), but otherwise, it is definitely not retirement worthy.
 * Wutip: 0% - Strongest NHem February storm on record, but luckily stayed out to sea. Wasn't the prettiest C5, but it was nevertheless a very interesting storm.
 * Sepat: 0% - Lol, no.
 * Mun: 0% - For this storm to have likely not reached winds of even 30 mph on reports, nor a really visible circulation, I don't see any reason to retire this thing lol.
 * Danas: 1% - Very minor storm. Lucky to not have caused much more for similar storms that have struck the Korean Peninsula at that strength.
 * Nari: 0% - Caused literally no damage, despite striking land. Thankfully, no deaths occurred in Japan.
 * Wipha: 5% - In my honest opinion, I believe that Wutip was likely stronger than it actually was according to JTWC, but its damage or deaths is nowhere near enough for retirement. Unfortunately, 10 fatalities occurred in this system.
 * Francisco: 0% - Since Japan doesn't retire names, I've went ahead and put this at 0%, although it would not have been much higher than 1%. Francisco was a fun storm to track, and thankfully, did not follow its original forecast of being a C2 typhoon upon Korean landfall. Only 1 fatality occurred in Francisco.
 * Lekima: 99% - Lekima was one of the most destructive typhoons of the decade, and one of the costliest for China on record. Lekima was also fairly deadly, and I believe that China will definitely request this storm. $7.3 billion is beyond enough for retirement in this basin. Although China is pretty weird about its retirements, it would really surprise me if they did not retire this.
 * Krosa: 1% - It was nice to have another major. No major damage from this storm, thankfully.
 * Bailu: 0% - Ongoing.

PAGASA: All names - 0%. T G  2 0 1 9 16:05, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that may be chosen. This tab will not be done for the WPac because it's simply too complicated to figure out replacements for this basin.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

All intensities are based off of JTWC's 1-min winds. JMA tropical depressions or intensities (such as the severe tropical storm category) are not included, exceptions are made if the JMA named a storm that the JTWC never tracked.

International Names:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Pabuk : <font color="#00A">6%, <font color="#F90">D - Formed on the last day of 2018 and crossed over, becoming the earliest named storm ever. This achievement ups its grade a bit. Very small chance of retirement just because it caused $156 million and 8 deaths in Thailand, but Indochina is pretty snubbish when it comes to retirements.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">01W : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#F00">F - Lasted a long time for a TD/disturbance, so I'll give it a bit of credit for that.
 * <font color="#F55">Wutip : <font color="#95A">0.1%, <font color="#A0F">S - What an amazing storm. Became the first C5 super typhoon in the month of February! And as a bonus, barely anyone was affected! Only $3.3 million in damage gives it a negligible retirement chance.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">03W : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - Forgettable, at least it didn't steal a name. Only caused minor damages.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sepat : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - Only considered subtropical by JTWC, it was quite the fail. Just a rainmaker for Japan - no damage or deaths.
 * <font color="#00faf4">04W : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - JMA kept it a TD, thank god.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Mun : <font color="#95A">0.2%, <font color="#A00">F- - An epic fail, but doesn't get a Z because it caused impacts in China/Vietnam, albeit very minor.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danas : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#F30">E - Another minor storm. Some damage and deaths, but it's not going.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nari : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - This failure just brought rain to Japan with no further impacts.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Wipha : <font color="#30A">2%, <font color="#F30">E - Struck in a similar region to Mun, but was worse. Considering Vietnam received the brunt of impacts, it shouldn't go.
 * <font color="#FF5">Francisco : <font color="#95A">0.05%, <font color="#AF0">C - Japan received the brunt of impacts, but Korea got some as well. It shouldn't be retired for Korean impacts alone, but IMO, a non-zero chance exists due to Korea. Gets some grading points for becoming the first typhoon since Wipha and ending an excruciating wait.
 * <font color="#F85"> LEKIMA : <font color="#300">99.999%, <font color="#0FA">B+ - Now the costliest in Chinese history, so this is definitely going. The only problem is that they are a bit weird with retirements, so there's still a non-zero chance it will somehow be snubbed. Lekima's grade is nerfed a bit due to the devastation.
 * <font color="#FB5">Krosa : <font color="#95A">0.001%, <font color="#0F5">B - We got another major, nice. But it was sorta disappointing that it never re-intensified on its way to Japan like forecasts predicted. Caused the most impacts to Japan but they number, not name, storms and thus don't request anything. Slight impacts to the Mariana Islands and the Korean Peninsula shouldn't warrant retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bailu : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#F60">D- - Became a STS by JMA, and caused some impacts from the Philippines to China. Impacts seem too light for retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Podul : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#F30">E - Struck the Philippines, Hainan island, and Indochina, but impacts so far are not enough for it to be retired.
 * <font color="#F85">Lingling : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kajiki : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.
 * <font color="#FF5">Faxai : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.

PAGASA:
 * <font color="#00faf4"> INENG : <font color="#100">100% - Caused Php1.1 billion to Ilocos Norte, which meets their damage requirement.
 * No other storms meet their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP and/or 300 deaths).

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#FF5">C1 , <font color="#FD5">C2 , <font color="#FB5">C3 , <font color="#F85">C4 , <font color="#F55">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#905">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% ; <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: LEKIMA, INENG

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: 

Staying: Pabuk, Wutip, Sepat, Mun, Danas, Nari, Wipha, Francisco, Krosa, Bailu, Podul, all PAGASA names so far except Ineng

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * Lingling - TBA, could be impacting for the Ryukyu Islands and Korea.
 * Kajiki - Staying
 * Faxai - Staying (Japan uses numbers for storms so they won't retire)

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * For international names, I expect that this season will end at or around Fengshen.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Matmo, Halong, or Nakri, or go further to Kalmaegi, Fung-wong, or Kammuri.
 * Phanfone or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Bualoi or before is also unlikely.
 * For the PAGASA, I expect that this season will end at or around Ursula.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Ramon, Sarah, or Tisoy, or go further to Viring or Weng.
 * Yoyoy or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Quiel or before is also unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see around 3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement (international) and 1-2 retirees for PAGASA. The first candidate is Lekima. The others are expected to occur in September, October, or November, with a very small chance for December or by the end of August. PAGASA retirees are also expected in those months.

International Names:
 * Chances that Peipah will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - If 93W develops, it could be this. Otherwise, I still except this by mid-September.
 * Chances that Tapah will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - I expect to see this by mid-September.
 * Chances that Mitag will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Expected by mid-late September.
 * Chances that Hagibis will be used: <font color="#300">99.99% - Expected by the end of September or early October.
 * Chances that Neoguri will be used: <font color="#500">96% - Almost certain to form, probably in early-mid October.
 * Chances that Bualoi will be used: <font color="#900">88% - Expected to occur by mid-late October.
 * Chances that Matmo will be used: <font color="#D00">77% - Probably will form by the end of October or in November.
 * Chances that Halong will be used: <font color="#F30">68% - Still in favor of getting this far. Will probably be in November.
 * Chances that Nakri will be used: <font color="#F90">59% - Chances still slightly in favor. Expected to form in November or December. May be the season's last storm.
 * Chances that Fengshen will be used: <font color="#FF0">50% - A coin toss. If it does form, it will most likely be by the end of November or December. Most likely out of all of them to be the last storm.
 * Chances that Kalmaegi will be used: <font color="#9D0">42% - The chances are getting lower. If Kalmaegi does come this year, it should be in December.
 * Chances that Fung-wong will be used: <font color="#3B0">33% - Only a slight chance of getting this far in 2019.
 * Chances that Kammuri will be used: <font color="#0A0">25% - Only about a 1/4 chance of getting here. I'm doubting it.
 * Chances that Phanfone will be used: <font color="#0AA">16% - I really doubt it. The season will really have to explode.
 * Chances that Vongfong will be used: <font color="#00A">9% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. This should be a 2020 storm.
 * Chances that Nuri will be used: <font color="#30A">4% - Nope. I expect to see this name in 2020.
 * Chances that Sinlaku will be used: <font color="#30A">1% - Chances are becoming negligible. Hyperactive miracle activity will have to somehow take place the rest of the season, making this year much above average. Should not happen, unless...
 * Chances that Hagupit will be used: <font color="#95A">0.3% - Chances are dwindling towards zero.
 * Chances that Jangmi will be used: <font color="#95A">0.001% - I would be left with absolutely no words if the season somehow got to this point...
 * Chances that Mekkhala or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - A 2020 storm for sure.

PAGASA:
 * Chances that Marilyn will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should form by early-mid September.
 * Chances that Nimfa will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Might be here by mid-late September.
 * Chances that Onyok will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Most likely by the end of September.
 * Chances that Perla will be used: <font color="#300">99.9% - Expected by early October.
 * Chances that Quiel will be used: <font color="#500">95% - Expected in mid-October.
 * Chances that Ramon will be used: <font color="#B00">84% - Chances still highly in favor, might be seen by late October.
 * Chances that Sarah will be used: <font color="#F00">71% - An end of October-November assuming it comes.
 * Chances that Tisoy will be used: <font color="#F60">60% - Chances are still in favor. Most likely will be in November.
 * Chances that Ursula will be used: <font color="#FF0">50% - May or may not come, might be the last of the season in December.
 * Chances that Viring will be used: <font color="#6C0">39% - An outside chance of seeing this.
 * Chances that Weng will be used: <font color="#0A0">28% - Only a slight chance, but it's getting more doubtful.
 * Chances that Yoyoy will be used: <font color="#0A5">20% - Weird name lol. Most likely not getting this far down.
 * Chances that Zigzag will be used: <font color="#05A">13% - Another funny name! But it is very doubtful the season will reach this name.
 * Chances that Abe will be used: <font color="#00A">6% - Not getting into the auxiliary list unless a miracle explosion occurs.
 * Chances that Berto will be used: <font color="#30A">2% - The PAGASA region will need to consume several shots of energy drinks and caffeine to get this far, somehow. I don't expect to come close.
 * Chances that Charo will be used: <font color="#60A">0.5% - Ok, now this is just getting out of hand.
 * Chances that Dado will be used: <font color="#95A">0.05% - The formation of this would leave me without words....
 * Chances that Estoy or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - Not happening this year.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:03, August 26, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 06:40, September 7, 2019 (UTC))

Sandy's retirements and grades
Ok, here we go!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#CCFFFF">STS , <font color="#F3E5AB">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )

JMA:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Pabuk :  C , <font color="9ACD32">7.5%  — A great year and basin crossover storm that is the earliest named storm in the WPac and NIO on record. It impacted the Malay Peninsula, inflicting $157 million (USD) and causing 10 deaths. I doubt this will be going.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Wutip : <font color="CD7F32">A++ , <font color="00CC00">0.1%  — A wonderful C5 typhoon that is the strongest tropical cyclone in the NHEM ever recorded in the month of February. Wutip inflicted only $3.3 million (USD) on Guam and Micronesia, which means it’s staying.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Sepat :  F ,  0%  — Um, pretend this storm didn’t exist.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Mun :  F , <font color="00CC00">0.01%  — This weak storm only caused minimal damage and a couple of deaths; it’ll stay.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Danas :  E ,  1%  — Danas was a rather minor storm to Korea, causing $6.42 million (USD) and 6 deaths.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Nari :  F ,  0%  — A weak storm that only caused rains in Japan.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Wipha :  E ,  5%  — Relatively minor storm, causing $44.3 million and 27 deaths. I also doubt this will be going.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Francisco :  C ,  0%  — Like TG said, Japan doesn’t request to retire names, they number them instead. This broke the streak of the consecutive TSs and only caused 1 death in Japan.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Lekima :  A- , <font color="FF69B4">99%  — This will be going. Lekima inflicted $9.28 billion in China alone, becoming the costliest typhoon in China on record. China will highly likely request the name to be retired because of the damage. Impacts aside, this was a good storm to track.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Krosa :  B ,  0%  — Had a huge eye after its peak, caused $2.64 million in damages and 3 deaths but since Japan doesn’t retire names, it’s a 0%.


 * <font color="#CCFFFF">Bailu :  D- ,  1%  — A typical severe tropical storm, but was forecast to be a typhoon once. It caused some relatively minor impacts so far in China and the Philippines.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Podul :  TBA  — Currently active.

PAGASA:
 * Ineng: <font color="FF1493">100%  — This name is going. It caused 1.1 billion pesos to the Philippines.


 * All other names:  0% , they don’t meet the criteria of Php1 billion or/and 300 deaths.

 Sandy 156   :)  04:49, August 26, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 00:35, August 29, 2019 (UTC)]

West Pacific Typhoon:
This season has already seen its fair share of typhoons, as listed below:

International Naming List:

 * Tropical Storm Pabuk - Caused some casualties in Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. (25%)
 * Typhoon Wutip - Imagine that the strongest typhoon this year happens in February. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Sepat - Weak storm, caused rain, the end. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Mun - It did stuff. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Danas - Went to South Korea. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Nari - Did barely anything. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Wipha - Little too close to Hong Kong. Wrong time, Wipha. (0%)
 * Typhoon Francisco - Did things. (0%)
 * Typhoon Lekima - VERY bad typhoon. The name will be retired. (99%)
 * Typhoon Krosa - It spun fish and also affected Japan. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Bailu - Haiyan's replacement was much less destructive and aggressive, minus the three unfortunate deaths. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Podul - Currently affecting China. (??%)

PAGASA Naming List:
TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:49, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Tropical Depression Amang - Caused landslides. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Betty - Nothing. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Chedeng - Weak, did barely anything. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Dodong - Nope, nothing. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Egay - Nothing. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Falcon - Caused floods in Luzon. (0%)
 * Tropical Depression Goring - I have nothing to say. (0%)
 * Typhoon Hanna - Sank three boats, sadly taking the lives of 31 people. Other than that, this name will not be retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Ineng - [The same as Betty, Chedeng, Dodong, Egay, and Goring. (0%)] You know what, scratch that. Ineng the monster caused a lot of damage to the Philippines. This chance goes up from zero to (99%).
 * Tropical Depression Jenny - The same as Ineng and five of the above names. Funny how all the storms that basically did nothing end with the letters "g" or "y". (0%)