Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

July
Is here. Yipidee do dur. Ryan1000 01:17, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

AoI:Remnants of Arlene
Okay, activity! It's extremely unlikely, but Arlene-Calvin anyone? Andrew444 13:26, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe. YE Tropical Cyclone  14:58, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm rather doubtful of this..also do we really need a "Week 1" header? The tropics are going to be quiet this week. Yqt1001 16:22, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nah, a week one header is probrably not necessary, but because there are no invests out there as of now, I won't argue over it. Ryan1000 16:39, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hah, this is funny. CMC (happy Canada day! :P) develops this in 102 hrs. Given CMC's great inaccuracies, I highly doubt this will happen. (on a side note, CMC also develops a Gulf storm at the same time period. This one, I'm not sure of because it's been talked about for quite a while). Darren 23 Edits 17:43, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene's remnants are at 10% now, still very unlikely, but regeneration into Calvin could happen. Andrew444 18:13, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Darren, I've noticed that Canadians aren't the best at forecasting storms, and can often be called wishcasters (due to the rivalry with the US). I should know, I'm Canadian myself. Maybe the CMC has those traits? :P Yqt1001 20:44, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Note: I removed the week 1 template because it's July and it's highly improbable that anything big is gonna happen the next week (even 2 weeks). Darren 23 Edits 00:05, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Highly improbable? It is almost the peak of hurricane season already, so anything could happen. Either way, ex-Arlene is still at 10%. YE Tropical Cyclone  00:55, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Great, by the time I make it to a computer, Arlene has gone and the remnants in the Pacific. It would be quite interesting to have Calvin out of her remnants, and it's not out of the question entirely, but unlikely as others have said. HurricaneFiona 09:30, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * For some reason or another, this storm reminds me of Georgette. But, this storm must develop quickly if it wants to become Calvin.YE Tropical Cyclone  14:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, post-Arlene is in unfavorable conditions, so Arlene-Calvin might not happen after all. Andrew444 20:51, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wasn't it impossible the second the final advisory was issued? Doesn't the storm have to be considered a tropical cyclone all the way across Central America to get 2 names? (or wouldn't we have seen Tropical Storm Eleven-E-Hermine?) Yqt1001 21:49, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes Yqt. It has to retain is former name to be considered the same storm as it crosses Central America from now on. Hurricane Fifi of 1974 crossed central america, but it only became Orlene out of it's remnants in the EPac. Before 1997, the policy was to have cross-overs switch names. Joan-Miriam of 1988 is another example. It did survive over central America, but not keep the name Joan. Alma-Arthur of 2008 is another. Alma did not survive the crossing over central america, but its remnants combined with a different system to form Arthur. No storm since Cesar-Douglas of 1996 has survived the crossing over Central America from the Atlantic to the Pacific or vise-versa. If Arlene does become renamed it will be named Calvin instead. Ryan1000 22:17, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone down to near 0% now. Shame, would have been cool. HurricaneFiona 22:51, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Had this been called Arlene-Calvin, it would have been the first time I've ever tracked a two-name system. Andrew444 01:37, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * The two-name policy doesn't exist in the ATL/EPac, or EPac/CPac, nor CPac/WPac or WPac/NIO. It only exists from the AUS/SWIO regions. If a storm forms in the Australian region this year and crosses into the SWIO, it will reccieve two names. Technically, you did track tropical storm Meari, and it was named Falcon by PAGASA. Storms are given two names quite often in the WPac for that reason, but not because of crossing from one basin to another. Ryan1000 02:49, July 3, 2011 (UTC)

And this AOI is gone. Yqt1001 11:09, July 3, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: South of Guatemala
National Hurricane Center have this up at 10%, environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for development. HurricaneSpin Talk to me  23:39, July 3, 2011 (UTC)


 * I think Calvin is coming. It's a bit far south IMO, but it could still head further west and develop. Here is what the NHC says:

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...It appears the party is starting up again, and I hope Calvin appears soon. Ryan1000 02:37, July 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * Wow, it's getting boring here and on Wikipedia. We now have had this invest and almost nothing else out there, I guess we're starting to sleep in the tropics. Happy independence day, BTW. =) Ryan1000 21:39, July 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * YAY!!! BTW... 'Guatemala' was misspelled. Andrew444 22:40, July 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's now at 0%. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:02, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * At 10% again! The AOI is coming back to life!! Andrew444 21:02, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay!!!!GO EPAC! You're so awesome! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:13, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I do like the chances of this system. The shear in EPAC is conductive, the waters are conductive, and there is reliable model support. NHC surface maps have a 1006 hPa low developing in the Monsoon Trough in 72 hours. And YE, for my sake, less noticeable bias please. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:17, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Darren, what's wrong with begin excited for an AOI? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:39, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Darren, I mentioned on Beatriz's Archive that the East Pacific storms are the good ones to watch. I completly agree with YE in this case. The East Pacific is the second most active basin worldwide, behind it's western counterpart and has the most dense activity of named storms per unit area. The Atlantic storms get tons of media attention, but what's the point about that in correlation to activity here on the Hurricane Wiki? Atlantic hurricanes kill people, cause widespread destruction, and are heartbreaking and sad disasters to the people affected by them. The Hurricane Wiki should have tons of activity in El Nino years when the Pacific heats up, not in years when the Atlantic is at it's worst. I truly don't understand why people care about North Atlantic storms so much when they kill people and cause lots of damage. Do people care about storms that do that? Do people like storms that kill people or do lots of devastation? I don't think they should and neither should we, or I. If a monster storm bears down on the Caribbean, Central America, the U.S, or Canada, we wait until it passes, not root on it to hit land. Minor storms like Arlene or Beatriz happen all the time in Mexico, ect, but monster major hurricanes like Gustav and Ike do not, and they aren't fun to watch or note for here on hurricane wiki. Hurricanes Gustav and Ike got lots of attention in 2008, but why? They were so bad... Ryan1000 23:53, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not really that I like the Atlantic...it's just that I think that all the other basins are inferior and are a waste of time to watch (except for the Aussies, because of BOM). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:13, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF THE

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. here we go again! Party!!!!!!!! Here comes Curious Calvin and shortly thereafter Dora the explorer, and in late July/August Error Enque, Funny Fernanda, and Giant Greg. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:38, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * And then Hilarious Hilary, Ir'notwin Irwin, Just what kind of name is Jova and Kenneth Kannif from Connecticut XD. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:46, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * The other basins aren't a waste of time to hear of IMO... It's just that the media is onto the heels of an Atlantic storm as soon as it forms, wheras they aren't for other basins like this one. I don't like watching catastrophic hurricanes in the Atlantic, but many people only care about that forum over this one or the SHem forums, ect. I think this forum should be the most active worldwide, but people just can't take their eyes off of the (catastrophic) north Atlantic storms. As for Calvin, make sure Hobbes doesn't know he's out here. =) Ryan1000 01:30, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Alright, so lets go nuts right now!!! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:43, July 6, 2011 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
No surprise, this thing is an invest. SHIPS takes it up to 60 mph. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 05:57, July 6, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yay!! It's at 50% right now. Will this be Calvin? HurricaneFiona 12:37, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay!! for 93E!

1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

It will most likely be Calvin! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:16, July 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * Here we go! The third storm of the EPac season is coming! And I hope it does something like Adrian, that would be great to see! Everywhere else is sleeping, so this basin will be the only fun one to watch for a while. I hope we get more activity after this as well, we're still behind 2010 at this time. Ryan1000 15:26, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Of course we're behind 2010! June 2010 was an extreme anomaly. Anyway, HWRF has this going to 992/53kts, SHIPS has it at 50 kts. I'm going with SHIPS here, as usual. This storm seems like it will be a very easy storm to forecast its future track. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:33, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * It looks great right now, IMO, i'd go with 70%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:08, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmmm... I think 70% is too much at the moment. This storm doesn't seem to have a well defined surface circulation. Nice convection popping up though. A stay at 50% is likely, but I also think 60% is possible, but not the TCFA range (≥70%). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:02, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant worldwide. This year's SWIO season really held us down, and the NIO also slightly held us down as well. At this time last year, we had 3 storms in the NIO, one of which, Phet, was a category 4 storm which hit Oman as a cat 2, though it was much less severe than Gonu of 2007. We have had no storms in the NIO in this year as of yet(although they aren't a big contributor). We had only 2 storms in the SWIO thus far in 2011, wheras in 2010 at this time, we had 7 storms. The AUS and SPac were near normal in activity, but we are still behind last year at this time in the overall numbers, and last year was still an inactive season worldwide. The WPac has already had 5 storms and acat. 5 in May, vs only one at this time last year, and the EPac is two storms behind last year, one if this one becomes Calvin. June 2010 was a record month for the EPac, but it's kinda weird to see 2010's PHS had record-low activity as a whole, despite the incredible start. We're still a long ways away from the peak of the season. 60% isn't impossible, but 70% and up will likely come tomorrow, not now. Ryan1000 17:41, July 6, 2011 (UTC)

WTF??? 70%? Ok, I admit I was wrong. Nice job YE! <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:44, July 6, 2011 (UTC)-
 * 70% seems to high? Well, the tWO is out and I'm right. Sorry Darren. A LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * In your face, Darren. Here comes Calvin! Ryan1000 17:48, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Show some sportsmanship to Darren, but it looks like we will see Curios Calvin (or TD-3E) tonight/tomorrow. Nwo the question is how strong will 93E get? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Ok. We're all right and wrong at times here... A Re-Adrian would be pleasing to see. =) Ryan1000 17:55, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Any models take this it hurricane intensity? GFDL? HWRF? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:25, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFDL takes it to a minimal hurricane, HWRF brings it to the line. Other deterministic models shows barely a tropical storm. GFS: about 1000mbs, British models: about 1005mbs, European: about 1005mbs, Canadian: about 1005mbs, NOGAPS: 1005 mbs, SHIPS: near hurricane. Other models I don't care. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:07, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Facinating. Ryan1000 20:25, July 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * Here's "Cool Calvin". Next three are "Dora the Explorer", "Eugene Krabs", then "Frekin' Fernanda". We're getting active!!! WOO-HOO!!! Andrew444 22:36, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I really don't understand adding nicknames to hurricane names. I mean, the only reason I add something to a hurricane name is to add -fail (like Bonniefail or Rickfail or even Beatrizfail). Anyway, TCFA is out from JTWC for this storm. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:41, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's called having fun! That's the point of this place. I like Curious or Cool Calvin. Makes for a good nickname. Ryan1000 23:00, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * The point of this place is for discussing a shared interest. In no way are hurricanes fun. Yes, they're interesting, but a thing that can kill tens, hundreds, even thousands of people is not fun. I'm from Texas, and cyclones are a big deal. They're fascinating, but can we not act like little kids here and pretend these things are fun. They're an awesome force of nature, and can we respect its fury? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:42, July 6, 2011 (UTC)

AND...it stays at 70% No surprise. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:45, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I understand your point, but this invest is not threatening land so we can have a party whenever we want. HUrricane are fun to track especially EPAC ones. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:57, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * @Darren:Not ALL hurricanes are fun to watch. We must respect the power of hurricanes like Gilbert, Andrew, Wilma, ect, but hurricanes that form in the EPac rarely affect land, and the ones that stay at sea without affecting land are "fun" to watch. I would not be cheering for hurricanes that devastate entire cities and do tremendous damage, but is there a problem with cheering for a storm like, say Ava of 1973? No, it's fun to watch storms that don't affect land. We can root on them to get as strong as possible with no offense to anyone. That's why I said above Atlantic hurricanes aren't the "fun" ones to watch. People may think they are worth "paying attention to", but if you were in the path of hurricane Katrina of 2005 and you are just about to lose everything you ever owned, you wouldn't like it so much then, now would you? I'm saying you have to put yourself in the other person's shoes. You might not think the storm was that bad, but if you were one of the people affected, you would. If you see hurricane Dean's archive in 2007, you may understand what i'm saying. When it became a category 5 hurricane, Cyclone1(retired now) and Jason Rees were "cheering" on the storm when it peaked. We don't do that with epic hurricanes like Dean; it was a sad disaster to the people affected by the storm. Hurricanes can leave you in great awe before them, but they can also be catastrophic to the people affected by them. The EPac hurricanes mostly do nothing. We hardly have any storms to worry about greatly here, but in the Atlantic, we often do. I agree it can be kinda silly to nickname archives after storms, though, and "awesome Adrian" would be better off as just "Adrian". It can be confusing to readers of past archives on hurricane Wiki, but I won't change the name of Adrian's Archive. I'll just change it's view as Adrian. Ryan1000 00:10, July 7, 2011 (UTC)

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:26, July 7, 2011

So 93E holdin' us up. But it will become our 3rd TD in a couple days. Good night! Andrew444 02:38, July 7, 2011 (UTC)

Maan.. how long is 93E going to take before becoming a TD? Andrew444 11:27, July 7, 2011 (UTC)

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 385 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH WELL OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:38, July 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-E
Here we go!!!! THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER IN TWO DAYS.

SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/11. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.

INIT 07/1500Z 14.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W   50 KT  60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF MEXICO...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...14.8N 101.2W ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

NONE

NEXT ADVISORY

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$ FORECASTER AVILA

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:43, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't need nor want the whole advisory! I think it's too much. Anyway, yeah, 3E should be a straightforward moderate to strong TS. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 14:57, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I posted the advisory because they do it at storm 2k. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:02, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * It appears the third storm of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season has come onto us, but it likely will only be a TS to remain at sea, nothing like Adrian earlier in June Ryan1000 16:21, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Three-E, become Calvin soon!!! Andrew444 18:04, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * It actually have a shot at hurricane intensity. Even though wind shear is moderate and increasing, the low level circulation is very tight, and that helps a lot for intensification. Next advisory is likely going to be 1005/30 (mb/kt). - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  18:34, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * We don't know for sure. Keep in mind July is one of the most active months here, and tiny storms can explode despite shear. Julia shoved those words right down my throat last year. None of the models saw that coming, and since Julia, two storms, Adrian of this year's PHS and Bianca of the AUS region also exploded despite the unfavorable conditions. We have a moderate to minor chance of seeing Hurricane Calvin, and a very good chance of seeing TS Calvin. Ryan1000 19:26, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, to be honest, there is a small possibility that it might never become Calvin. Next advisory is pretty much 1004/30. That's for sure. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  19:40, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nope, that's not for sure. RBT is only for that time period. It doesn't dictate what the advisory is gonna say. Right now, ADT values are unimpressive, but I think that can be attributed to the misplacement of the center. Right now, it looks like a small tropical storm. It looks like the storm is attempting to form a nice CDO. I'd put it at T2.5-3.2, but that's just me. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:56, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Um, the storm isn't undergoing a ton of wind shear right now. Furthermore, it only needs a 5 mph boost to become the third TS of the season. It likely won't get anywhere past 55 or 60 mph, but the chances of it not getting to 40 mph are next to 0%. Ryan1000 20:10, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm Calvin
 * We have Calvin! 96.242.128.37 00:04, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION! Looks like we got a shot at hurricane intensity. Small systems like these can overcome shear, for all we know, Julia and Lisa of 2010 were both forecasted to dissipate. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:16, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

Calvin? Where? BT doesn't have it, NRL doesn't have it. Where did you get that?? As of this moment, I don't see evidence of it being upgraded yet. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:38, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Also, Lisa and Julia weren't forecast to dissipate. Even when Lisa was a TD the 2nd time it wasn't forecast to dissipate. And Julia...well, it hung in there a few advisories, but they got the dissipation close enough. If anything, these small storms will die in shear. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:45, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Calvin
Finally, 54 minutes past 00z, they upgraded it! <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:08, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * You said you don't trust RBT :/ - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:15, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I said that info from RBT to Advisory can change. I trust it when it intensifies a storm or if it weakens a storm. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:22, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It likely won't get much stronger, but it's worth paying attention to since it's the only active TC worldwide. The good news is, it won't affect land. Ryan1000 02:19, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cloud tops have topped -85°C ! Not something that you see everyday. The last time that happened was probably Matthew. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  03:58, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Seems like a | banding eye is trying to form. UW-CIMMS has T3.3/51 kts while raw T's are now T3.5/55 kts while SAB ADT has it at T2.9 with raw T's up to T3.7!. SAB DT has it at an unimpressive T2.5. It is important to note that it seems that they don't have this dead-center. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 05:00, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Calvin is pretty much the only thing here. Andrew444 12:21, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It is currently forecast to hit 70 mph, but it still has an outside chance to become a minimal hurricane; if it does so, it will only be brief as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 15:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 70mph. OWEN2011 15:37, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, I didn't see that coming. I guess it has a pretty good shot at being a minimal hurricane now, but as I said earlier, it will likely only briefly become a hurricane, and weaken quickly afterwards. Ryan1000 15:58, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 70mph. OWEN2011 15:37, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, I didn't see that coming. I guess it has a pretty good shot at being a minimal hurricane now, but as I said earlier, it will likely only briefly become a hurricane, and weaken quickly afterwards. Ryan1000 15:58, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Calvin
Not surprisingly, BT confirms that Calvin is now a hurricane. Hurricane #3 now for EPAC. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:00, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa... Talk about intensification alright! From 00z to right now, ADT has jumped 2.3 units. UW-CIMMS now has it at T5.0/967 hPa/90 kts! SSD ADT was at T4.0/65 kts. Since then, it seems like it's either peaked or started weakening. T-numbers are holding steady or decreasing, and I think Calvin has peaked. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:18, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not going to get much stronger, but one special feature about 2011's PHS is it is only one of 3 seasons since reliable record-keeping began in 1971 to have the first 3 storms become hurricanes, the others being 1995 and 1971. In addition to that, 1966, 1963, 1957, and 1950 technically also had that, but I personally think we missed a tropical storm or two before 1971, and the intensity and number of pacific storms before 1971 were signifigantly underestimated as well. Ryan1000 20:16, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I personally think it's incredible Calvin became a hurricane. I only predicted a strong TS at the most.
 * O Andrew444 20:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Again, small storms with tight circulations like Calvin can really handle tough situations. Julia was a good example. I remember waking up with the radio saying there were 2 category 4s in the Atlantic. Julia was surprisingly strong and was my personal favorite of 2010. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:58, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Julia was an unexpected storm that exploded into a category 4, and it was over water and shear that otherwise wouldn't be able to support a 1. Very few of the models saw her reaching a category 4 storm. However, she apparently showed us the only thing you can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Calvin? wtf?? I go to bed last night with 35 kt Calvin and come on here seeing Hurricane Calvin. That was unexpected. Well, Calvin will die soon as it is moving into cold water. Oh well. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think I have understand it now. It's not that small storms can handle tough situations, it's that small storms can take advantage of the warm SST because of its size. It needs less energy to strengthen than the big guys, therefore, in a high SST environment, despite the shear, it can strengthen. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:25, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Either way, looks like Calvin still doesn't want to dissipate...not just yet. Convection is still deep in the southern quadrant, and neither weakening nor rapid dissipation flags are on. But Calvin reached its peak, and is about to head through very cold sst. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:58, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not that small storms need less energy, it's that if the shear is only a little bit ahead of them, they can explode faster than a big storm. In other words, a small house(a small hurricane) won't take much time to build, but when it gets hit by a crane with a cannonball or burns up in fire(AKA, wind shear and dry air), the house falls down just as fast as it was built up. A large house(larger hurricane) will take longer to complete, but the cannonball and fire will take longer to destroy the larger house as well. Or, if the giant house crashes over a big city(giant hurricane makes landfall), it will destroy more of the city than the small house will if it falls onto a city. It's something like that when it comes to tropical cyclones. Not to say small hurricanes can intensify slow or big ones fast, but it all depends on the environment. There can always be exeptions to the rule. Ryan1000 00:21, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not that small storms need less energy, it's that if the shear is only a little bit ahead of them, they can explode faster than a big storm. In other words, a small house(a small hurricane) won't take much time to build, but when it gets hit by a crane with a cannonball or burns up in fire(AKA, wind shear and dry air), the house falls down just as fast as it was built up. A large house(larger hurricane) will take longer to complete, but the cannonball and fire will take longer to destroy the larger house as well. Or, if the giant house crashes over a big city(giant hurricane makes landfall), it will destroy more of the city than the small house will if it falls onto a city. It's something like that when it comes to tropical cyclones. Not to say small hurricanes can intensify slow or big ones fast, but it all depends on the environment. There can always be exeptions to the rule. Ryan1000 00:21, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

How about this. Small storms will intensify more times than large storms. They can take advantage of temperatures which a medium-large storm will not intensify as much. They can intensify at lower SSTs than the big ones as you said, they take time to build. They need more energy (warmer SST's) to reach the same intensity at the the same rate in the same environment. That's what I mean by less energy. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:46, July 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, that's my point. The big ones need more energy because they need to build up on all quadrants, which takes up a lot of space. That lot of space could have wind shear or dry air around it. The small ones need to as well, but the quadrants are much smaller, so it takes less time for them to take off, given the fact they are in favorable SST's. Anyhow, Calvin has pretty much peaked, but it's not out of the question it could get a little stronger until it succumbs to lower SST's and dry air. Ryan1000 01:48, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I see we have Hurricane (another one!?) Calvin, so I guess I didn't miss too much. Yqt1001 13:46, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Calvin (2nd time)
Rapidly weakening, now at 60mph. Yqt1001 14:42, July 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, it's starting to fall apart now, winds will continue to decrease as this storm heads further out to sea. It looks like sh!t to be honest. Ryan1000 20:13, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It seems like that the theme of this season so far is fast or rapid strengthening then as fast or faster than it strengthened. Not surprising to me. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:07, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * 45mph winds now, NHC predicts last advisory soon. Yqt1001 21:14, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions?

Mine:


 * Adrian - 1% No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements.


 * Beatriz - 10% Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired.


 * Calvin - 1% Unless it magically turns around as a major hurricane, I doubt that it's going off the name list.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well as of now there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 10% to Beatriz and keep the other two. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are mine:
 * Adrian - 2% I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat.
 * Beatriz - 7% Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her.
 * Calvin - 0% He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Beatriz - 7% Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her.
 * Calvin - 0% He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine (Until Calvin) <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no.
 * Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired?
 * Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P


 * A bit early but here are mine:
 * Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said
 * Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, but Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore
 * Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it.
 * Yqt1001 13:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine:
 * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact
 * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy
 * Calvin 0%

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Mid-season forecasts
What are you guy mid-season forecasts. Mines is 14-9-4. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone


 * I am expecting a near-normal season here, if not slightly below normal, and I am calling for, say 14-16 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors, but no category 5's. Until Calvin dissipates, I guess the next thing to watch is 08W in the WPac, which is currently Goring by PAGASA and could become future Ma-on. Ryan1000 19:24, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna go to the lower end of all y'all's forecasts and go for 12 NS, 7 H, 3 MH and also no C5's (EPAC only, I hate forecasting CPAC). Apparently, this is close to the CPC forecast of a median of 12 NS, 6.5 H and 2 MH. Here's my monthly forecast:

<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:18, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jun: 2TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Jul: 3TS, 1H, 0MH
 * Aug: 3TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Sep: 3TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Oct: 1TS, 0H, 0MH
 * Nov: 0TS, 0H, 0MH
 * Dec: Heck no

HurricaneSpin's

Atlantic: 16-13-8-5-1 (Maria) ACE=108

Pacific: 18-14-7-3-0 (Norma) ACE=101

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Oh yeah, ATL. I'm going with 16 (±3) NS, 8(±2) H, 5(±1) MH, ≥0 C5, or above normal with an ACE of 110-195, or (assuming median ACE is 87.5) 125-222% above normal mean because conditions are still very favorable for significant development in the season. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * My predictions:
 * Atlantic: 16-8-4-2
 * Pacific: 14-7-3-0
 * Yqt1001 21:49, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the Atlantic will have 14-9-5. IMO, the pacific is more tricky since we already have had the first three storms become hurricanes and 1 major. I would go with 11-12 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-5 majors (I wouldn't be suprised if the season ends up like 2010 and has no majors through peak of season.)
 * ACE for the Atlantic should be around 150. The Pacific ACE should be between 50-80. Suprise11 22:53, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2010? Why is 2010 being discussed? Do you realize that the 2010 PHS an anomaly? The environment is much more favorable than 2010. In fact, if this seaosn shuts down later this month, and pulls a 2010/1977, I will be shocked. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * While 2010 was anomaly (Number of June storms, June C5, lack of activity afterward), because we are in the inactive Pacific era, a repeat will not be surprising, but it is not really expected. And YE, an interment is a burial :P <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:11, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It will be surprising, because a 2010 type season has occurred only twice in the past 44 years. So the odds of an 2010 type season is 1/22.YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:29, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant 2010 in terms of the possibility of no majors through peak of season. For example, despite 2003's high number of named storms, there were no majors. Suprise11 23:36, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given the fact that we already have three major and one cane, it is unlikely that we will have no majors in the season. Most years have a Baja storm that becomes an MH if not an MH fish storm. In fact, I could only find two seasons since 1977 with no MH's during the peak (2003 and 2010). Odds=1/12. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:43, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). Ryan1000 01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). Ryan1000 01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). Ryan1000 01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC)