Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

January AOI: ULL that becomes... uh Adrian?
GFS has the wicked idea of developing a TC from a ULL just a week from now.

http://prntscr.com/dyan1a - peak

http://prntscr.com/dyanax - IR at possible peak  user | Monseur Roussil 97  | user

AOI: SE of Mexico
Both the GFS and ECMWF consistently develop a hurricane to the south of Mexico in about 8 days. They're quite uncertain about the landfall location though. The GFS is insisting on landfall in El Salvador (!), while the ECMWF now moves this into Mexico but previously showed it doing some weird cyclonic loop while becoming a powerful major. Interesting days are ahead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:00, May 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * The NHC has put this on their TWO, with a 0/40 chance of forming. I won't be surprised if this becomes Adrian. T  G  2 0 1 7 17:11, May 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/50. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:13, May 7, 2017 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
20/70, this has a good chance to become Adrian sometime within the next week, looks like the EPac is getting off to another early start. Ryan1000 03:04, May 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 50/80. Adrian is likely coming. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:20, May 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70/90, should become Adrian sometime tomorrow or Wednesday. Unfortunately, the projected 5-day path takes this almost due northwest into southern Mexico or Central America instead of out to sea. Hopefully it's not too bad for them when it develops. Ryan1000 03:47, May 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
Another off-season system.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:29, May 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian
It could reach Cat 3 before landfall.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:32, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * The forecast for Mexico isn't looking good right now. I wouldn't rule it out being a Cat 4 either. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * And I thought I had seen everything. First, Arlene forms in April, and now, Adrian become the earliest named tropical cyclone in the history of the Eastern Pacific. This is a one of a kind storm. I do find it cool that the earliest named Central Pacific tropical cyclone formed a year ago. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:07, May 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * The forecast now shows that Adrian won't become a hurricane within five days. Adrian is also weakening to, so I don't know if it will actually reach hurricane strength at all. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:58, May 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * I think Adrian will become an Ivette-esque failure, or even a Failicia.108.69.97.185 23:09, May 10, 2017 (UTC)(Temp IP of 182)


 * CIMSS now shows Adrian as a TD. We'll wait for NHC to make it official before making a new header. Quite a bad bust, mix of Ivette and Failicia. 😡108.69.97.185 02:32, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Adrian
Remember Genevieve?-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:26, May 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * More like Failicia now. NHC forecast no longer shows regeneration. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:58, May 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if the earliest-forming known TC in the EPAC proper should be considered a fail. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian
For what it's worth, though... ker-death. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:15, May 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * I would agree that the earliest storm isn't really a failure standard, but it shouldn't have been a puny storm like Failicia. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:53, May 11, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
This is at a 50% chance of developing for the next 5 days. It may become Beatriz as it nears southern Mexico, though even if it doesn't heavy rain is going to happen either way. Ryan1000 04:15, May 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/50 for this system. It's just a few hundreds of miles from Mexico. :) 198.233.146.2 05:47, May 29, 2017 (UTC)