Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
It's not off of the coast yet, but for a wave coming off of Africa, I'd say it has the highest chance of forming so far this year. It has some model support and a low pressure area so far. Conditions also look favourable off the coast. Yqt1001 23:52, July 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not quite. The SAL is still really thick off of Africa´s coast; I would consider this invest developing perhaps when it reaches the lesser antillies, but a Bertha-like storm isn´t in my future for this invest. It cetainly bears watching though, and as the heart of hurricane season continues to approach, more African waves will become threatening storms for the Caribbean Islands, Central America, the U.S, Mexico, Bermuda and Canada. Every invest out there bears watching as of now. August is just around the corner, and by August, not only will more and more people come here, but more and more storms will come off of Africa. Ryan1000 01:03, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The tropics are heating up like it's already August. Maybe a re-2004 could happen at this rate? Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:49, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * August isn't too far away now, but I can see a year like 2008. Anyways this wave isn't expected to develop until it reaches the Caribbean, but I think it's odds of forming are still high in the future. It kinda fell apart once it departed Africa though and met the SAL. Yqt1001 23:47, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess the more imminent threat now is 90L, because it looks a lot like Celia did in 1970. This wave could be future Emily though, and it needs to be watched out for, especially when it gets to the Caribbean. Ryan1000 04:33, July 27, 2011 (UTC)

Now up to 20% for the next 2 days. The thing about this one is unlike Don's precursor, this one will have to fight an upper level low dominating the Virgin Islands. It needs to develop now to have a better chance at that shear in the eastern to northern Caribbean 3 or 4 days from now. However, the shear may settle down before it gets there(which I desperately don't want), so Emily could be threatening us much more than Don will. I may even see her as a major threatening the gulf coast 7 days from now. This thing could get bad. Ryan1000 00:13, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * OMG! There is a closed circulation already! All it needs is higher winds and deeper convection and we have TS Emily! Yqt1001 02:48, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested! The model support for this is amazing with nearly every model developing a hurricane out of this. Also up to 30% now. Yqt1001 04:20, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * This wave really scares me, because it has a lot of time to develop and when it does get into the Caribbean, we could see a very powerful hurricane heading for the U.S. gulf coast and Cuba. The AOI north of Panama has less time to develop than this wave, but because it's closer to land, it certainly has to be watched more for the time being. I don't know if this will be Emily or Franklin, but either way, I hope it doesn't develop into a monstorous U.S. storm in the far future. Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * You might or might not be surprised at how many models develop this into a major hurricane. (nearly all) However the models are still doubting on where it will go... Yqt1001 14:36, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * It could end up crossing the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and then end up in the eastern seaboard of the U.S. as a powerful hurricane, but it also isn't out of the question it could rage across the Caribbean and hit the Gulf coast as a powerful major hurricane, but who knows where it could end up... It could be a re-Dennis or re-Emily, or(god forbid) a re-Ivan or Gilbert. Ryan1000 15:26, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 50% now. Yqt1001 23:41, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

Wow... this invest is geting its act together quite fast. And just how it's looking, the fifth tropical depression could be on our way. And very ironically, it appears that Emily is trying to redo her 2005 fame. (But in an EXTREME coincidence, I had predicted the 2011 Emily to take the same track as the 2005 Emily in the strangest storm section in the betting pools. Looks like I could be the first person to win that section! :)) Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:16, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

I now have posted another blog post. OWEN2011 00:27, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, we don't know if it will become a monster yet, but it isn't out of the question. And Andrew, HSpin won the strangest storm section for Omeka in the pacific hurricane season betting pools last year, so you would be the second, not the first. Sorry. =( Anyhow, this wave is certainly worth watching as it very well could be a re-Emily, but many other options are open to 91L as well, so don't count on a re-Emily just yet. Ryan1000 02:29, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to 70% now. Yqt1001 05:49, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * The big difference between this one and Don is Emily has so much more time to develop. It will likely become named, or at least numbered, before it even reaches the lesser antillies. So this storm could be quite severe for the Caribbean and U.S. The people in the leewards need to prepare NOW. I could easily see Emily at the most a cat 2 when it approaches the islands this Sunday/Monday. Ryan1000 06:06, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * This may be our first"big" storm of the season. If you want to see my blog written about it click on OWEN2011 and go to my blogs. OWEN2011 13:49, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, here's a quicker way to get to either blog, [] or []. If you have questions, contact me on my talk page ([]). Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:17, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Uh oh. 80% now, I'm expecting Emily by later today or tomorrow. It's really getting it's act together and we have a very good chance of seeing her very soon. It's starting to remind me of the 2005 season itself. We're at the fastest start since 2005, but the big difference between this year's start and 2005 and 2008 is all of the storms thus far were weak storms. 2005 had 2 pre-August cat 4's and a U.S. major hurricane of those two. That's a record. There were 3 U.S. landfalls before August 2005, 2 of which were hurricanes. 2008 had the longest-lived pre-August storm on record and a billion-dollar U.S. storm before August. In 2011, we had Arlene, which caused some moderate impact to Mexico, Bret and Cindy, both fish storms, and Don, which only lightly affected Texas, perhaps it caused some destruction, but not much. We had a lot of named storms thus far, but unlike 2008's or 2005's starts, they are all short-lived and weak. Anyways, keep your eyes out for future Emily. Ryan1000 17:58, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh,no... at 90%. TD 4 could happen later tonight, then TS Emily tomorrow. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:57, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * An air force reconossance will be scheduled to investigate this wave later today for a possible low-level circulation, therefore TD 5. Furthermore, the wave in the EPac south of Acapulco is up to 70%. That thing is already spinning. It has to be 5-E by later today. Ryan1000 02:07, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Near 100% in the Atlantic and 90% in the Pacific our to E storms are coming AllanJeffs
 * For my blog written yesterday see . OWEN2011 12:39, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Argh... Come on NHC! It's TD 5 and you know it. Why are you so stubborn to have to wait until it develops it's circulation? BTW, we now have 5-E in the east Pacific; it's already forecast to become a hurricane and it isn't even named yet. Muifa is now down to a cat 4 super typhoon in the WPac and the latest forecast still takes it towards Southern Japan or the Koreas. It will try to head towards China and Taiwan, but an approaching trough will pull it towards Japan most likely as a category 2 storm. However, I agree Emily is going to be our big story over the next week as it charges across the Caribbean. Ryan1000 14:34, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at near 100%. It looks like it's weakening and becoming more elongated. However, interests in the Caribbean need to closely monitor this system's progress over the next several days, because it is still very likely to develop by tonight or tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:26, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Hunters had a communication problem, that 100% figure is all satellite estimates, but it is elongated and seems to be a weakening a bit. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Very elongated; down to 90% as well. --HurricaneMaker99 23:49, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure if this will happen but the NAM presentation for this system out 78 hours is just scary. Hurricane David much? Check this out: CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Argh... Come on NHC! It's TD 5 and you know it. Why are you so stubborn to have to wait until it develops it's circulation? BTW, we now have 5-E in the east Pacific; it's already forecast to become a hurricane and it isn't even named yet. Muifa is now down to a cat 4 super typhoon in the WPac and the latest forecast still takes it towards Southern Japan or the Koreas. It will try to head towards China and Taiwan, but an approaching trough will pull it towards Japan most likely as a category 2 storm. However, I agree Emily is going to be our big story over the next week as it charges across the Caribbean. Ryan1000 14:34, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at near 100%. It looks like it's weakening and becoming more elongated. However, interests in the Caribbean need to closely monitor this system's progress over the next several days, because it is still very likely to develop by tonight or tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:26, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Hunters had a communication problem, that 100% figure is all satellite estimates, but it is elongated and seems to be a weakening a bit. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Very elongated; down to 90% as well. --HurricaneMaker99 23:49, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure if this will happen but the NAM presentation for this system out 78 hours is just scary. Hurricane David much? Check this out: CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)



Wow, I didn't expect the shear to gain a hold of it, but it did elongate 91L somewhat. It's just that, this thing is still in very favorable conditions and still has a very high chance of forming today or Tuesday, so don't let your guard down just yet. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's still at 90%, but a hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating this disturbance for information on whether or not it has developed a closed low-level circulation. If that has happened, then it will accordingly be numbered TD 5. Muifa is gradually weakening, and Eugene is slowly but surely strengthening into a hurricane. We're really kicking into gear. I archived the part before this thing for July, but this invest is staying, since it's going to develop in August. Ryan1000 13:01, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * The satellite appearance of the system isn't too elongated as it was yesterday. Looks like it resumed to a "normal" size. It also seems as if 91L is forming an eye? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg
 * It needs to have that closed circulation for it to become TD 5(and sign your post with 4 tildes 99). The HH aircraft still hasn't given confirmation to the NHC for a depression though... Ryan1000 13:38, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Well, the HH aircraft is back, and despite the well-defined structure of 91L and the fact it's producing near-TS force winds, it's still not developing that closed circulation. Another aircraft will check it out later today for possible development. It really wants to take it's time. It's likely not going to be such a threat to the lesser antillies for that reason, but Jamacia, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the U.S. gulf coast need to keep their eyes out for this thing. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:22, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Is this wave really trying to stay this weak? It's now further down to 80%... I thought I would see TD 5 by now, but I guess it will have to enter the Caribbean for it to develop now. Don't let your guard down just yet. It still could become Emily. Ryan1000 18:26, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This would be helpful, Martinque radar! Please tell us what you think of the radar presentation that 91L gives. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:30, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * More than likely that we have emily know. AllanJeffs in the place i am is 21:26, August 1,2011
 * The circulation of 91L has made landfall on Dominica, but the main story is still to come. The area of convection east of the circulation center recently exploded, creating a large column of supercells that extend from east of the island of Guadeloupe to Barbrados. Dominica remained sunny for much of the day, even as the circulation center passed over. However, thunderstorm activity recently flared over the center, so they are getting tropical thunderstorm activity as we speak. Guadeloupe is getting a supercell over their heads, and Martinque, which has not seen much rain today, will get a wall of rain coming towards them. As for the other islands, there is a thunderstorm over Barbrados, but I cannot confirm with a Barbrados radar (it's offline) to confirm that it is pouring rain. Nonetheless, Barbrados remains within the wall of storms until about 2 hours later. St. Lucia is starting to have clouds, and will have rain on them soon. St. Vincent, which saw rain earlier today from the wave west of 91L, had a brief sun break, but will see rain in a short time. The final island, Grenada, will miss most of the thunderstorm activity, but additional showers are likely. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Finally Emily is born invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren 01-Aug-2011 22:19 3.2K let see where she go AllanJeffs 22:27 August 1, 2011
 * Finally Emily is born invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren 01-Aug-2011 22:19 3.2K let see where she go AllanJeffs 22:27 August 1, 2011

Tropical Storm Emily
Special advisory issued by NHC; Emily is born at 35 kt/1006 mbar. NHC takes her into DR as a TS, weakening, then becoming a minimal hurricane as it nears Florida. And NAM really loves this thing, doesn't it? Check the WunderMap - now it's taking Emily right into Haiti at (I think?) hurricane strength! Please, Emily, behave yourself! --HurricaneMaker99 23:34, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah you beat me! Looks like the "gamble" has paid off! Hello, Emily, the fourth storm of the season to skip tropical depression status. While satellite imagery seems disorganized, the radar is beautiful. They got the Martinque radar mosiac back, yes!! Check out theradar The circulation center now seems to be positioned southwest of Dominica, although the main thunderstorm activity is positioned east of center. Guadeloupe and Dominica still facing tropical storm strength winds. Anyways, let's remember the struggle that 91L committed into becoming Emily! :D CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:49, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

August 1 is really early for a hurricane. Also, the NHC track makes Emily the first hurricane since Ike in 2008 to make landfall in the U.S., and our first east coast strike since Katrina (Ophelia and Earl don't count)! Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:49, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'd be stunned if this thing could even survive it's first landfall; if it does hit Hispaniola, it will be shredded up by the mountains there and will likely either end up in the Gulf of Mexico or just die out. Go tell Hurricane David of 1979 he had a pleasant time over there. It stormed into Santo Domingo as a 175 mph category 5 hurricane and barely emerged the DR as a one. Olga of 2007 crossed them in December and it just died out after it hit them, as a 60 mph storm. Hispaniola is not a happy place for hurricanes. If this thing was heading further westward across the Caribbean towards, say Jamacia, it would be much more dangerous than where it otherwise could be if it follows that NHC track. And climatologically we are actually supposed to get our first hurricane by July 31, so we're actually right on track if you ask the experts from where our first hurricane should be, except Emily is more than a month ahead of the normal date of our E name. The lesser antillies got off pretty easy I think. Emily might have brought some rainshowers to them but it's nothing compared to the monstorous hurricanes we have had in the past there(Ivan, Dean, Janet, Hugo, ect). Ryan1000 23:52, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is a lucky chance for survival if it traverses East Hispanola, less mountains there. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:01, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * CobraStrike, I was saying if it does follow the current NHC track and does hit central Hispaniola, it will get knocked down and will likely skim northern Cuba and get between the straights of Florida to go into the Gulf of Mexico. If that scenario comes up, boy oh boy, bad things are gonna happen. Unlike Bonnie or TD 5 of last year, this year we have an OASIS in the Gulf. VERY little shear and dry air, and it has to make landfall once it gets into the GOM. I think the interaction with Hispaniola will change it's path to crossing north of Cuba until it reaches the Gulf. That's what's scaring me about this thing. We haven't had a major hurricane in the Gulf since, well technically, Karl of last year, but Gustav was the last GOM MH we had threatening the U.S. coastline in 2008, not to mention Ike, though never becoming an MH in the GOM, caused massive damage on the Gulf coast as a strong as hell category 2. Stay tuned. I think our first big NAtl story of 2011 is here, and unfolding. Ryan1000 00:16, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * If the Azores High remains as is right now and buldges slightly east and then back west, the Gulf scenerio may occur. If that happens, and the GOM remains a tropical oasis, then I predict (coming from a 5th grader) that it will be a solid category 3 before landfalling on the Texas coast, but rapid deepening is likely. However, most of the models are agreeing with the main NHC forecast track, but a few (BAMM and BAMD) are looking for a Gulf scenerio. Anyways, there is an unvaforable area (bunch of SAL and shear) north and west of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico showing strenthening. May be a factor. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:26, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * The intnsities of hurricanes also determines their forecast track, however. If Emily runs head-on into Hispaniola, it will rapidly fall down into a minimal tropical storm or depression, or if we get really lucky, dissipate. Normally, weak storms aren't as affected by steering currents as much as strong ones are. If Emily shrinks down into a TD or barely a TS, then the Bermuda High won't be able to get a hold of Emily and it will escape the high and wind up in the GOM. Currently Emily's core is a little to the west of the main thunderstorm activity. If Emily get's her act together like lightning(I mean David lightning), then the east coast scenario is more likely. If Emily remains a weak and disorganized storm when it hits Hispaniola, the Gulf scenario is more likely. As I mentioned earlier, the mountanous terrain of Hispaniola is not a happy place for hurricanes. We'll just have to wait and see. Ryan1000 00:40, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just to let everyone know, I have just posted a new blog of Emily, Eugene, and Muifa. OWEN2011 01:05, August 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * Looking at the Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities for Emily, it looks pretty fine at first, but after Hispaniola, things get shaky and expand, marking Emily's unsurity in the Atlantic. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:30, August 2, 2011 (UTC)

New NHC advisory just in. Not much change with the intensity as Emily remains with 40 mph winds. The forecast has a slight change. Instead of a Florida impact, its more of a Florida skid, its Palm Beach and away! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:55, August 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * Don't be too certain on that yet. Another thing about Emily is now that it's staying a 40mph disorganized TS, there is a chance it could actually miss Hispaniola to the south and head more towards Jamacia and Cuba. The latest forecast changed in direction as well. Now it's heading straight westward and not west-northwestward, it may not even affect them and head towards Jamacia instead. But if that happens, it could be much stronger for the Gulf coast. Stay tuned on Emily. Ryan1000 07:40, August 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, it looks Emily made an outer band to its south. Emily is most likely trying to get its act together. OWEN2011 13:01, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * As of Advisory #3A, I checked the TS wind speed Probabilities, and it turns out at first, the area is small, then rapidly expands, In fact the entire Florida Peninsula has a chance of getting TS winds. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 13:41, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily Advisory 4: Emily remains with 45 mph and an astonishingly high pressure of 1006 mbar. While satellite appearance is swell, Hurricane Hunters have found it disorganized. Emily is trying to re-organize around the center, so it may strengthen quickly soon. Forecast fixes: Emily is now forecast to do more of a quarter-circle track than an "L" track. The greatest change however, is that NHC is looking for a recurve out to sea rather than an East Coast impact. That is all. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:17, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * The 4a intermediate advisory out. The only changes are that Emily is not stationary anymore and is now on the move... The Lesser Antilles are technically done with Emily except for a few showers. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:11, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Advisory 5 is out! Emily has strengthened slightly to a tropical storm with 50 mph and a min. pressure of 1005 milibars... Emily remains disorganized, and the center is hard to track. The forecast has changed to show that the Hispaniola interaction will weaken the storm to a depression (and we all knew it already). CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:49, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * New advisory. Nothing changes except for a vortex fix. Satellite imagery shows Emily may be a clip weaker. The northwest turn is expected in just a few hours, maybe even minutes, but now it is just heading west. Models are agreeing with each other in track, but intensity models are all around. 3 models expect hurricane strength anytime in Emily's lifetime. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:29, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like Emily lost a ton of convection on its east side as a convection explosion occurs over the Central Dense Overcast. Emily seems a bit smaller now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:01, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * That's going to go bad with flooding in Haiti. If it was not Haiti Emily would be striked for sure. 91.18.30.118 16:54, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Where is Emily going after Haiti, the NHC currently shows it going to the north, but I'm more curious of where she is going after? I'm going to be on the east coast/atlantic canada until mid August. :P Yqt1001 17:46, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Since it's staying weak it may likely end up clipping southern Hiti and I'm fearing it will become a strong hurricane in the NW Caribbean like Gustav or Dennis. Stay tuned everyone. Ryan1000 19:48, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Welcome Cobra Strike! Everybody see my latest blog post. Maybe on my blog we can redirecct some things there. The sections seem to always be crowded.
 * I might have another blog on Friday. The delay is I am flying down to Florida. I might feel TS force winds from Emily. OWEN2011 19:56, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily's circulation is being re-covered (not recovered, re-covered) by clouds. May be a sign... CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:06, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's still rather disorganized though, so it likely will pass south of Hispaniola and between Haiti and Jamaica. When it gets into the western Caribbean though, things may get interesting... Also, Eugene is resembling Adrian again. Ryan1000 22:03, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * More like surpassing Adrian...anyways, the Gulf may bring Emily a stir... CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:05, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily may appear to be getting better organized, but she still isn't making that northward turn. The more she goes farther westward, the higher a chance she will affect the southern U.S. We aren't so sure as to what she'll do yet, but as I said earlier, i'm looking forward to her passing through Haiti and Jamaica and then a Dennis or Gustav repeat. Once she gets into the western Caribbean, she's just gonna take off, from a TS to possibly a category 3 or 4 storm in less than a day or two. Everyone on the gulf coast from Louisiana to Florida needs to get ready for this potential monster storm. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:12, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Personally I'm hoping she hits Texas. I hate to say it, but it's probably better for a hurricane to strike there than it is for one to curve out to sea; Texas really needs a nice, wet tropical cyclone to bust some of that drought, especially after Don failed miserably. A TS or Cat 1 there would be perfect, since it could dump a lot of rain while reducing the probability of significant damage. --HurricaneMaker99 01:05, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Texas does need some rain, but they also could use a break from hurricanes, especially after Ike in 2008. If a cold front manages to break through the ridge, that would be all we would need. And the rest of the Gulf coast states except Louisiana hven't seen any big hurricanes in 6 years or more. Florida needs a wake-up call of some sort, and so does North Carolina and New England. Ryan1000 01:38, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * They can keep the hell away from New England! --HurricaneMaker99 03:20, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm really starting to doubt if she makes that northward turn. Where she goes if she doesn't go north...I have no clue. The models tend to point over Cuba into the Gulf though. Yqt1001 13:17, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * "...MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY..." ...knew it. 99.58.60.158 18:18, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm really starting to doubt if she makes that northward turn. Where she goes if she doesn't go north...I have no clue. The models tend to point over Cuba into the Gulf though. Yqt1001 13:17, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * "...MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA TAKING A TOLL ON EMILY...CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY..." ...knew it. 99.58.60.158 18:18, August 4, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Emily
Oh ho ho ho! Emily is gone, sorry peeps! It is now just a funny trough of low pressure. The storm still has potential and COULD regenerate. Just watch out. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:36, August 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * And I thought Don was an epic fail. We have had just a bunch of short-lived storms thus far this year, but i'm not sure if it will stay that way in this entire season. Emily was barely a warm-up to what is to come for the rest of the year. We are lucky to have had this run of luck thus far. Ryan1000 00:49, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't see why Emily shouldn't regenerate once she reaches the Bahamas. Yqt1001 00:54, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Um, she's lost almost all of her convection due to interaction with Haiti, so i'd say she's dead. And I don't know if the cost of damages section was entirely necessary in the Betting pools, CobraStrike, but I won't argue with anything, since nothing's truly predictable in the tropics. Ryan1000 01:08, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says 60% chance of regeneration, I agree with them. This isn't really that different than a storm going over Central America and finding favourable conditions on the other side. Yqt1001 01:13, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * But it has little convection and it's circulation has not even passed Hispaniola. So no, no coming back IMO. We may see her regenerate, but i'm not counting on it yet. Ryan1000 01:18, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Post-tropical Cyclone Emily is still at 60%, and a Florida hurricane strike is possible. Now, I have a question: If Post- Emily regenerates, will it be called Emily or Franklin? Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 14:04, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It will be Emily; see Ivan (and several of 2001 storms) for a precedent. --HurricaneMaker99 14:54, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, if a storm dies in the same basin it forms in, it becomes renamed what it was. The first time that happened in the Atlantic was in 1981 when Hurricane Dennis became a TS in the open Atlantic, degenerated into an open wave before hitting the lessers, then regenerated into a TS when it struck Florida and the Carolinas. Still, Hispaniola really knocked Emily down hard. She will have a hard time rebuilding her former self. But until then, our big story I guess is Muifa in the WPac, which is charging towards Shanghai as a downright massive 100 mph storm. Eugene is now down to a tropical storm and the AOI south of Mexico is at near 0% for the next 2 days, which, in my book, is no future Fernanda. Ryan1000 15:40, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * The 'Remnants' of Emily are now not marked on the NHC. Now it is classified as an AOI (not invested) with 60% regeneration, as said earlier CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:44, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now they are at 70% I think she will regenerate again Allanjeffs 23:57, August 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * However, the circulation is approaching southern Florida, not further northward. Because Emily died out, it is heading father westward and may slip into the GOM and cause some trouble there. It's not out of the woods yet, but it will take some time to recover from what Hispaniola did to it, so I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it doesn't even redevelop at all. But because it's getting very close to the heart of 2011's AHS, waves crossing Africa will continue to bear watching more and more as they may threaten the U.S, the Caribbean, CA, Mexico, Bermuda, and Canada. Emily was barely the beginning I fear. Ryan1000 00:34, August 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * However, the circulation is approaching southern Florida, not further northward. Because Emily died out, it is heading father westward and may slip into the GOM and cause some trouble there. It's not out of the woods yet, but it will take some time to recover from what Hispaniola did to it, so I wouldn't be entirely surprised if it doesn't even redevelop at all. But because it's getting very close to the heart of 2011's AHS, waves crossing Africa will continue to bear watching more and more as they may threaten the U.S, the Caribbean, CA, Mexico, Bermuda, and Canada. Emily was barely the beginning I fear. Ryan1000 00:34, August 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Emily
She's up! Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444)
 * Emily regerates we have her again my friends although is a weak depression Allanjeffs 20:54, August 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wee! I was right =D Yqt1001 01:39, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll tell you what this is, it's a big f**king mistake. For god's sake NHC, why re-upgrade this bitch? She is one of the saddest excuses for a depression i've ever seen, and even if she does briefly re-become a TS, she will be heading out to sea anyways. Either way, I am surprised she actually got the re-upgrade now. However, she isn't exactly the longest lasting storm thus far unless she lives for 5 full days like Bret. The time she was a remnant low doesn't count towards her livespan, and neither does the precursor from Don towards his, ect. So thus far nothing has outlived Bret, for god's sake. Ryan1000 04:35, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the season is incredibly bust-like so far. 5 TS's NO hurricanes...I wonder if that means we will get 5 major hurricanes in a row? Well, if the shear forecast comes through (peak shear of 15knts in the tropical Atlantic), I don't see why not I guess. Yqt1001 12:55, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Personally, I've got a bad gut feeling about Franklin, Gert, and Jose... --HurricaneMaker99 23:59, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * No blog until my computer is fixed. OWEN
 * Yqt1001, I understand what you are saying, but interestingly enough, the Eastern Pacific has made up for the activity lost in the Atlantic. I think the two different levels of activity in both basins have to do with the relationship between the two basins (one is active while the other is inactive). What's weird is I feel the basins are in a ghost El Nino. However, once the Atlantic starts getting more active, the Eastern Pacific should start dying down (though not as extreme as last year). Anyone on here can look at my blog for my Eastern Pacific hurricane season forecast. I'm going to make an Atlantic one soon. Suprise11 17:38, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt1001, I understand what you are saying, but interestingly enough, the Eastern Pacific has made up for the activity lost in the Atlantic. I think the two different levels of activity in both basins have to do with the relationship between the two basins (one is active while the other is inactive). What's weird is I feel the basins are in a ghost El Nino. However, once the Atlantic starts getting more active, the Eastern Pacific should start dying down (though not as extreme as last year). Anyone on here can look at my blog for my Eastern Pacific hurricane season forecast. I'm going to make an Atlantic one soon. Suprise11 17:38, August 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt1001, I understand what you are saying, but interestingly enough, the Eastern Pacific has made up for the activity lost in the Atlantic. I think the two different levels of activity in both basins have to do with the relationship between the two basins (one is active while the other is inactive). What's weird is I feel the basins are in a ghost El Nino. However, once the Atlantic starts getting more active, the Eastern Pacific should start dying down (though not as extreme as last year). Anyone on here can look at my blog for my Eastern Pacific hurricane season forecast. I'm going to make an Atlantic one soon. Suprise11 17:38, August 7, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Emily (again)
Dissipated again, per the 5pm advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 23:54, August 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * I don't really know what this year's PHS is resembling, but thus far the 2011 AHS is reminding me of 2007 in a way; we had many short lived storms thus far, but I think we will have a few of the many storms this year end up dangerous storms(Dean and Felix, to a lesser extent Noel). Ryan1000 04:36, August 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now they are 20% again Allanjeffs 15:43, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Emily looks the best she has ever been. That doesn't mean she should be re-classified, but she does look more like a real tropical storm than she did in the Caribbean. Yqt1001 11:13, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ex-Emily at 20% on NHC. It would be interesting to see Emily regenerate again in the area that Tropical Storm Cindy formed. OWEN2011 15:17, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ex-Emily is down to 10%. Regeneration is slipping away... Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 18:47, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Emily is STILL at 10%, which is weird, considering its location. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:58, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still 10%? Very weird. She is not giving up! Ilovehurricanes 08:30, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Emily is STILL at 10%, which is weird, considering its location. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:58, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still 10%? Very weird. She is not giving up! Ilovehurricanes 08:30, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Emily is STILL at 10%, which is weird, considering its location. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:58, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still 10%? Very weird. She is not giving up! Ilovehurricanes 08:30, August 11, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Panama
Some model support, it's in a basin of hot water and little shear in the peak of the hurricane season. Every wave should be noted at this point. :P Yqt1001 05:49, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * This thing is really close to land, so it has to get it's act together now until it comes closer to CA and doesn't affect land, or if it misses Central America to the east, it may interact with Cuba and Florida instead, hopefully not being as strong as 91L could be. Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to near 0% chance now. Yqt1001 23:42, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Will this really become a tropical cyclone, or even an invest? Let's wait and see. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:18, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * No offense, but this AOI is a sad excuse for sh!t. I would be stunned if it's upped to medium chance by tomorrow or later today. It's moving into EPac however, so it could be future Greg if the two current invests develop there. However, there's no Franklin coming from this one. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I mean it looks pretty good, but since it's supposed to spread over land, there's nothing we can do but watch. :D CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:45, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cape Verde
Made it bold so it could be recognized as a title but anyways, here is a wave off Africa and south of the Cape Verde islands in the ITCZ. Haven't seen much model support yet, but should be watched for. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:35, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * It doesn't need to be bolded, we can recognize it on the NHC's website just as much here. Anyways, 91L is the more iminent threat, I believe. This wave could be future Franklin however. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ryan, I know this is far out but how strong do you think this system may get down the road? 96.242.128.37 01:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given the fact this wave will be following behind Emily(91L), it actually might weaken upon approaching the Caribbean behind her outflow, if she becomes strong. However, this AOI has a LONG ways to go. The SAL off of Africa is still pretty thick, so this wave has to fight that before it can do ANYTHING. 91L managed to fight it, but can this wave do so as well? We'll have to wait and see. All options are open to this wave, but there is no gurantee it will do anything yet. August has begun though, so from now on, everything bears watching. There's no telling what anything will do; the greatest thing you can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. Ryan1000 02:09, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is the storm in the eastern Caribbean right now right? If so, it's starting to look good, might want to start watching it again. Yqt1001 21:57, August 10, 2011 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Wunderground is showing this..some kind of error? South of Cape Verde right now, on the equator. The NHC hasn't even mentioned this on their TWO yet. Yqt1001 02:34, August 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * No longer on Wunderground.. :S I think this wave is destined for 92L anyways. Yqt1001 23:51, August 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe EX-92L will regenerate in the future. OWEN2011 15:18, August 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now they are at 10%Allanjeffs 00:05, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmm..it's back now. Yqt1001 00:50, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% now. I changed the header to AOI:Off Africa because it hasn't even been invested yet, but if it gets just 10% more, it will become 92L. This wave(Future Franklin) could be a greater threat than Emily was, especially if it misses Hispaniola. Keep your eyes out on this thing. Ryan1000 14:16, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * In Wunderground its already 92L Allanjeffs 15:58, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * And we have also 93LAllanjeffs 19:16, August 10, 2011 (UTC)

It's invested Ryan. Just because it is only at 20% doesn't mean it can't be an invest. Yqt1001 19:13, August 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * But it's still really disorganized as of now, certainly better looking than Emily's precursor, but still, not exactly the best invest i've ever seen. I usually think that 30% or higher is the limit for an invest because 20% for the next two days doesn't mean it will develop in that time, or even the long run, because they still have a low chance of forming. 30% or higher is good enough for it to be invested IMO. We also have another AOI north of the Bahamas which could be a future storm for us as well. Currently it and Emily's remnants are at 10%, wheras this one is at 20% for the time being. Ryan1000 20:19, August 10, 2011 (UTC)

Now that's more like it! 30% for the next two days. 93L is right behind this one, but it's only at 10%, as is the wave into the Bahamas and Florida in addition to ex-Emily. I guess this thing is going to be our next big story over the next week or two. Ryan1000 02:09, August 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * This is also 40%Allanjeffs 17:49, August 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * This system is disorganized as of now. OWEN2011 22:13, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is a sad mistake for an invest right now. It appears it may eat the unfavorable conditions ahead of 93L, so 93L will likely be the bigger story here over the next week or two, or, if the new AOI in the EPac develops, we will have future hurricane Fernanda. Now is the time of year the tropics start to heat up, and 93L could very well be our first big story of this Atlantic hurricane season, and our second big one worldwide, after Yasi. Ryan1000 23:59, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 30%, but it's holding together "sorta" despite the SAL, which should mean that 93L will get an easy ride across to the Caribbean. This could be a threat to develop down the road still. Yqt1001 11:57, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back up to 40%. Yqt1001 12:04, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow... this is the first time I have seen five invests together at the same time (counting the Epac one). By the way, is it possible that we could hit the "I" name (Irene), if these all develop? Either way, this is still at 40%. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:32, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * The EPac AOI isn't an invest. And yes, it is possible, but I think we will only see 2-3 storms form out of these 4 invests (95L tonight during DMIN (if it does form at all), 92L north of PR and 93L in the eastern Caribbean). Oh this is at 50% now. Yqt1001 18:00, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * While 92L will be entering a field of low wind shear, upper-level winds remain grim. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
This is the wave east of 92L, just got invested according to NHC_ATCF's files. Not on the TWO yet though. Yqt1001 19:12, August 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Which one's which? I'm a bit confused about this and 92L because both are really close to each other and they might merge if they follow each other at the same rate. We'll see about this thing though. Ryan1000 20:23, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * This one just came off of Africa today. Yqt1001 21:52, August 10, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 10% now. Yqt1001 03:26, August 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * 40% now Allanjeffs 17:48, August 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * In my opinion, 93L looks way better than 92L in terms of organization. Maybe 93L will steal the Franklin out of 92L. OWEN2011 22:11, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has the same percentage of development, but it really is looking better than 92L now, and it's also remaining well organized. 92L will take out any unfavorable conditions ahead of 93L so this one has a signifigantly greater chance of development IMO. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:41, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * I got my first "bad gut feeling" today so far this hurricane season...93L just has terror all over it. Plus it's doing really good right now, should be at 50-60% chance at 2AM and maybe a TD by Saturday at this current development pace.. Too bad Hurricane Franklin doesn't have such a terrible sounding name, Gert/Harvey would be better names for such a horrible storm! And with the models slowly pushing the storm into the Caribbean...this storm looks really similar to Dean's wave back 4 years ago today. Yqt1001 03:52, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L is giving me lots of bad feelings because 92L is eating all of the shear and dry air ahead of this storm so 93L is good to go, plus this thing is much farther south and rapidly heading westward at 15-20 mph. 92L is going WNW at 20, but although it will also encounter favorable conditions and likely become Franklin(or Gert), it will likely be a fish, unless it reaches Bermuda in time. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 14:46, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, it lost itself a bit. Now it's down to 30%, and it's still slowly chugging off towards the west. However, given that, it may head closer to the antillies.Too close in my future... Ryan1000 05:17, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 10%, looks like it has lifted out of the itcz finally, and it is struggling to hold it's convection...which is a bad thing. Now it's going to move even more west into the deep carribbean sea and potentially could be a major by the time it gets lifted north into Greater Antilies/Cuba. Yqt1001 13:28, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Bahamas
And a new area pops up. It's at 10% for the next two days, but it doesn't have as much of a chance of forming as 92(or 93)L do. Still, it's worth mentioning. Ryan1000 20:23, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 20%Allanjeffs 05:51, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 30%, looks like 95L is on its way! O_O Yqt1001 12:03, August 12, 2011 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Damn, quadruple invests at once! Anyways yes, this is now invested.... Yqt1001 12:26, August 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * The thing about this thing is it is rapidly heading northeastward, so it has a very small window of opurtunity to develop. 92 and 93L are the more iminent threats. Ryan1000 14:40, August 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * This storm reminds me of Shary. Plus this storm looks pretty good right now, all it has to do is be "less frontal" :P. Yqt1001 17:03, August 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to 60%. Yqt1001 17:57, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Shoot...60%? I come home from vacay and there is a quadruple threat! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:30, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmm...based on RGB imagery, I think we might have TD6 in the next few hours...RGB Flash Animation of 95L CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:58, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * However, note that it is expected to merge with a frontal system, so maybe Tropica Depression Six will happen, but there will likely not be a tropical storm. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:53, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * However, note that it is expected to merge with a frontal system, so maybe Tropica Depression Six will happen, but there will likely not be a tropical storm. Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:53, August 12, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
In a special update......TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NORTH OF BERMUDA...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA... Spoke too soon Andrew! (4 minutes too soon :P )Expected to peak at 45mph, so enough to get Franklin, but not Hurricane Franklin. Looks like 95L won the race to Franklin... I was not at all expecting this, but frontal storms form really quickly. Not as fast as Bret, but this was pretty fast..barely 10 hours between investing and formation. Yqt1001 20:57, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah wow. It's moving fairly fast, but darn the wind field is tiny as hell. There must be a wind radius of 30 miles from the center of just "strong breeze" winds. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:41, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Convection is diminishing...going to be this season's sixth short-lived storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:35, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Six is becoming way elongated, but I can't find that circulation anymore. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:52, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin

 * WTF??? If you asked me which storm would become a depression by later today, I would NOT have guessed 95L. Oh well. This thing's Cindy 2.0. Ryan1000 05:09, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now a TS. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:23, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Where is everyone? Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:03, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Pop! Here I am. Franklin strengthened a little bit. And not everyone is avail at all times, people need to go to work. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:08, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Franklin, from the looks of satellite imagery, is undergoing extratropical transition. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:08, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
This is part of Emily's remnants but under a new name, 94L. Currently at 10%, but heading towards where Emily formed, so I guess it has a pretty good chance of formation in a few days. Yqt1001 11:50, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 20%. Yqt1001 12:03, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not technically ex-Emily though; she's heading into the far north Atlantic. This thing is much farther north than both 92 and 93L, nor is it as well-organized. However, it's heading westSOUTHwest, so it could be more iminent than 93 and 92L now. Don't let your guard down on this one. Ryan1000 14:40, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 50%...Puerto Rico and Hispaniola may see a double hit by cyclones. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:33, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wrong invest CobraStrike. I don't think this one will develop. Yqt1001 19:24, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe yes 30%.Allanjeffs 00:30, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now is 60% we may have Gert of this systemAllanjeffs 17:57, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here comes the 7th tropical cyclone of the season. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:20, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

The peak of the season seems to be upon us. Storms are coming out from everywhere. :P I kinda hope this becomes a hurricane if this does develop at all, I'm don't really want this year to go down as the year where everything was a TS. :P Besides, this storm wont affect land, so it's not like I'm hoping for a hurricane landfall. Right now it looks like this and 92L might merge though..going in the same direction right now, and 92L is going 10mph faster than this storm.Yqt1001 18:42, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * I know this is off topic but can someone tell me a name of a retired storm that only Mexico have ask for in the present years with the exception of Diana? Allanjeffs 19:51, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Roxanne and Opal (1995), Isidore (2002), Stan (2005), Dean (2007)? And please, if you need to, ask it in this forum. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:55, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
No harm in starting this early, like we did with the EPAC and WPAC, now is there? --HurricaneMaker99 03:47, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 10% - 25 deaths is pretty bad, but probably not enough to earn retirement.
 * Bret: 0% - The resilience was admirable; however, considering the lack of any major effects, retirement is out of the question.
 * Cindy: 0% - I feel kinda bad booing her, since she survived into some really cold waters, but... BOO
 * Don: 0% - Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing.
 * Emily: 2% - A lot of promise gone to waste here, though there were fatalities.
 * Franklin: 0% - I smell fish...


 * I'm going to wait until later here. If 91L (Emily) of this year happens to do what her 2005 predecesor couldn't(that is, cause enough damage to be retired), then I'll throw in my percentages because as of now, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement. Thus far, I'd be surprised if we have ANY names nominated. Arlene didn't hit Mexico hard enough, and every other storm thus far did virtually nothing. Ryan1000 05:03, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine:
 * Arlene - 15% - It killed two dozen people, but Mexico has seen worse than her, and Arlene's coming back in 2017.
 * Bret - 0% - I don't think Bret's going, unless he's some tyrant name.
 * Cindy - 0% - See you in 2017!!!
 * Don - 1% - Affected land, dropped 2/3 inch of rain in Brownsville, that's it. No way Don's going.
 * Emily - 4% - Not Hanna or Gordon bad.
 * Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather consevative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather consevative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather consevative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 15% - Damage was minimal, but a quarter 100 deaths? That's a hefty amount. However, Arlene did not cause many big problems to Mexico. Mexico also has been reluctant to retire what most would think to be terrible storms (well, technically all (except the fishies) are). If Karl was not retired, not Arlene. Bret: 0% - Thanks for your ability to fight the shear! Cindy: 0% - Cold water fishy Don: 1% - Don had hopes to bring the South Texas drought to a...well...away from exceptional, but Don did nothing but drop a few barely beneficial drops of rain. Emily: 5% - Emily caused deaths and damage especially to Hispaniola, but not enough for any true retirement. Six: 0% - Want to retire a number? Request a new number today! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:49, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

Very Mid-season forecasts
Why call it very mid-season forecasts? Because most mid-seasoners do it in early August. Well, welcome to the true mid season, the beginning of September (almost!). As we near the second half and the most active half, we already have a taste of what the first half did. Here is my prediction: 17 total systems, 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. My ACE calculations lead me to believe a near normal statistic, around the 70-110 range. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:49, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

My prediction was 18 tropical cyclones, 17 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and 1 Category 5.

Now, doing it like CSU does it, we have 6 tropical cyclones, 6 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes, 0 Category 5's, and a ACE of 10. My post - August 13 activity is 12 tropical cyclones, 11 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 majors, 1 Category 5, and a ACE of 140.

For more information, go to my blog:

Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:09, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * With the activity so far, we might challenge 2010's total of 19 named storms. If we keep spitting out storms at this rate into November, and double the rate in September, there should be no reason we don't reach 20 storms. I still stick with 5 majors, only because the basin is warm and little shear..as the SAL slowly lifts, the CV season will probably be huge...so far the pattern is looking like most CV storms will go into the US too. Yqt1001 16:21, August 13, 2011 (UTC)