Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
Another one near 90S.-- Cy10 -- 01:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

Gone.-- Cy10 -- 20:21, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

95P.INVEST
TCFA...and it's heading toward SPAC. -- Cy10 -- 21:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

Finally...maybe a storm there! 173.169.56.34 02:40, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Well - Nadi actually say that when it enters the SPAC, it will be a strong depression or a cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:29, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

We also have newly form Tropical Disturbance 10 .Allanjeffs 12:48, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 10P
Expected to get to 65 kts in the SPAC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:18, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Straight in there with 50 mph. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:30, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah!!! its strengthening rapidly maybe a peak f cat 2 or 3 after it enter the high shear of the south pacific basin.Allanjeffs 14:32, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

I thought this one would develop, but the South Pacific still hasn't had any storms form there yet, and if Jasmine becomes a strong major cyclone (which currently seems unlikely), it could be a problem for the folks in the Solomon Islands or New Caledonia in the next few days. It's also expected to head due east or slightly east-northeast, which is rare for a storm in this area. Ryan1000 17:37, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Now a C2.-- Cy10 -- 03:50, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

and strengthening could peak at 3 or 4 before it start weakening. Allanjeffs 15:01, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

I'd like to see Jasmine become a severe tropical cyclone. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:31, February 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * So you want to see devastation across some SPAC islands? &mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:40, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * No. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:21, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

VMS now showing it going to the south of the islands with 70 kt wind. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:32, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Yep, Nadi has it making landfall on New Caledonia as a Cat 3. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:40, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Hope she not make landfall at that strength.Allanjeffs 12:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Now in the SPAC (FYI, for simplicity, don't move it into the SPAC bit of the forum). The official track map from Nadi shows it passing between Vanuatu and New Caledonia as a Cat 3. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:34, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Just as Jasmine is about to make landfall, she appears to be entering an RI phase... [Link] 65kts as of the latest JTWC update, but not for long. Yqt1001 22:02, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
And its here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:00, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Jasmine looks pretty impressive. It looks like it's going to pass between New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands, so damage should hopefully be minimized, even if it does become a category 3 or 4 storm. Ryan1000 02:07, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Officially the strongest of the season.Allanjeffs 04:21, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

And we now have a Category 4 cyclone! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:30, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10F
And another one...-- Cy10 -- 13:11, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Its not a depression. RSMC Nadi's TDS' supersede the 3-day outlook. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:31, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah its a disturbance not a depression.Allanjeffs 21:03, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Exactly Allan, as 10F's final advisory has just been issued. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10F
Now its a depression. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:29, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Although the advisory says 25 kts, the gale warning says 35 kts for 10F. This is exactly what happened with 04F too. So this means 04F should have been Cyril and 10F should be Daphne. (Not likely to happen anyways). &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:08, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

And after they reach td status they start weakening right away. Allanjeffs 17:00, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 11F
New one here, most likely to be dumped in the bin soon. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Like all of the past disturbances of this year. Allanjeffs 23:25, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11F
Potential for this depression to become a tropical cyclone is low. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

96P.INVEST
Now 96P. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:45, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Cyril
And its the first homegrown tropical cyclone of the season. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:43, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Finally a name storm in this Basin btw Cyril is a male name or female? Allanjeffs 20:39, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Cyril is a male name Allan. Being the latest first storm in the SPac on record, at best, this basin will get to 3-4 storms in total from now on out, excluding Jasmine. Even so, Cyril is only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but based on the looks of this tiny little storm, I wouldn't be surprised if Cyril could explode up to cat 1 or 2 strength before dying out. Ryan1000 22:15, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

So we got Cyril after all. Still, I don't see much coming from him. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

It's heading out to sea. Cyril is probably a fish.-- Cy10 -- 23:20, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Probable will only peak as a weak moderate tropical storm.Allanjeffs 23:56, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

It has reaxhed C2 strengh. Now it should be weakening.-- Cy10 -- 13:17, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: SPAC: -- Cy10 -- 23:21, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?
 * Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts.
 * Iggy - <5% - Probably not.
 * Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count.
 * Cyril - ?

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?
 * 3) Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad.
 * 4) Iggy - 10% - No.
 * 5) Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area.
 * 1) Cyril - TBA - Still Active

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)

Time for mine.


 * 1) Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail
 * 2) Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season
 * 3) Heidi: 5% - Meh
 * 4) Iggy: 3%
 * 5) Jasmine: 15% - Caused record breaking flooding in NSW and QLD

&mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:34, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

My turn


 * 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ?


 * 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going.
 * 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him.
 * 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names.
 * 5 Jasmine:TBK
 * Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Might as well:
 * Definitely retired - None.
 * Probrably retired - None.
 * Possibly retired - Grant.
 * Probrably not retired - Iggy and Heidi.
 * Not retired - Fina.

Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)