Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season

AoI: Gulf of Tehuantepec
Another huge bunch of storms behind 94E, up on NHC at low (10%) risk. They do not sound enthusiastic about it. --Patteroast 03:37, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * 20% now. --Patteroast 13:17, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Medium risk. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:00, September 3, 2010 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Invested. Medium risk. If it forms it is article time. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:00, September 3, 2010 (UTC)


 * Special Two!

UPDATED...GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 * hip hip Horray! YE Tropical  Cyclone  22:29, September 3, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Offical now! YE Tropical Cyclone  22:48, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Yikes. Tropical storm warnings issued. Looks like 10E took too long and 11E's going to be Georgette. Should be a brief storm, but as we've seen before, storms dumping lots of rain on this region can be devastating... --Patteroast 01:42, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Huh. I was looking at various model runs, and I noticed something strange in the latest HWRF run for 10E... if you look at the global view, it appears to show 11E crossing into the Gulf and making landfall in Texas as a storm. --Patteroast 01:55, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I really really want this to become a TS for once in my life. YE Tropical  Cyclone  03:16, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Nope... on shore. I guess Georgette will still have to wait. --Patteroast 10:21, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * NHC You suck! Use surface observations not T-numbers. YE Tropical  Cyclone  12:25, September 4, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Georgette
Actually, the NRL briefly upgraded it! NHC you suck so much. Whoever held off the upgrade your fired! YE Tropical  Cyclone  14:44, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Uh, what? The NRL doesn't do the upgrading themselves... they get their information from the same source as the NHC. Also, I see no sign of this on NRL anymore. NRL made an error. If 11E did make it to storm strength, it will be declared an unnamed tropical storm in the post-season. --Patteroast 17:30, September 4, 2010 (UTC)

94C.INVEST
Hey, new invest in the CPac. 10% risk for now, but at least this one has some time to develop... barely west of the 140 W cutoff between EPac and CPac. --Patteroast 17:34, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still out there at 10%. --Patteroast 04:13, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Finally gone. Been off NRL for quite a while, but not even on the CPHC site anymore. --Patteroast 23:26, September 10, 2010 (UTC)

95C.INVEST
Another CPac invest near 94C. This one's at 20% chance, though. --Patteroast 04:13, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * And down to 10%. CPac sure is exciting this year. --Patteroast 12:37, September 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still out there doing nothing. Up to 20% at the moment, but "expected to encounter unfavorable atmospheric conditions Saturday." --Patteroast 23:26, September 10, 2010 (UTC)
 * Back to 10%. No longer on NRL. --Patteroast 05:47, September 12, 2010 (UTC)

AoI:Well South of Baja
Hey! There's something on NHC. Not really a very exciting area, 20% risk, but EPac's been crazy quiet lately, so it's worth mentioning. --Patteroast 20:55, September 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%. Oh well. --Patteroast 13:18, September 18, 2010 (UTC)

AoI:SE of Hawaii
There's been a blob in the CPac for a few days, never more than 10% chance... doesn't seem very likely and now it says, "Conditions do not appear to be conducive for further development..." Still, at this point anything at all in the EPac/CPac is worth mentioning. --Patteroast 13:18, September 18, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still out there, still 10%, still not going to do anything. --Patteroast 07:36, September 20, 2010 (UTC)

AoI:Near Mexico
New blob on NHC! At 20%, please develop please for just once in my life. Please. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:36, September 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Well, GFS has it go down to 1001 by September 21. And it definitely isn't a stupid low, it's persistent. Tropical Storm Georgette, probably the last storm of the season. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 03:47, September 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Last storm? If this develops we will have Howard in October IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone  05:02, September 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Definitely premature to say that the pattern will hold for the entire remainder of the season. As for this storm in particular, the risk is up to 40% now. --Patteroast 18:13, September 19, 2010 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Up on my blog (though unoffical). 00:53, September 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * Er, I'm not sure what anyone's blog has to do with assigning invest numbers, but the NRL site has this now. Also, NHC has it at 50% risk. --Patteroast 07:35, September 20, 2010 (UTC)

Finally! Hopefully we can get a Georgette out of this, and maybe some rain over here in AZ? <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 14:13, September 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * Looking bad. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:02, September 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * 70$ 97.124.116.132 23:46, September 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * Seems to be Karl's remnants. I see a COC. Could affect California. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:17, September 21, 2010 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Right now, based on Agatha's death update (146), I want to give it a 95-100% chance of retirement. Does anyone else have guesses on Agatha's chances? 98.206.70.2 22:35, May 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * It certainly would look like a good bet, but EPac retirements are so rare and all-over-the-map that I'm not willing to give even Agatha more than a 50% chance. It's certainly deserving, though. --Patteroast 17:09, June 21, 2010 (UTC)

Why not? This storm is NOT like Alma 2 years ago, which, IMO, had virtually NO chance of retirement. Agatha, on the other hand, is like an EPac Allison, the THIRD most destructive EPac storm on record, as well as the 5TH deadliest. That's bad enough for me.98.206.70.2 02:37, June 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's not so much that I think that Agatha's not worthy of retirement... it absolutely is, and should be retired. It's just, looking at the list of retired EPac storms, I don't feel entirely confident that retirement choices will make any sense. Then again, I hope I'm wrong. Most of the really bad misses were a couple decades ago. --Patteroast 08:15, June 22, 2010 (UTC)

Well, I can cope with you on that. Fico, Fefa, Knut, and Iva(prob. retired to avoid confusion with Iwa), were all retired for unknown causes. However, Agatha will be retired by the same standards as storms like Pauline and Iniki were. Other storms, like 2002's Kenna, were retired, but Lane in 2006 wasn't, for 2x the damage, too. But Agatha is NOT Kenna or Lane. It's a big league storm, and it's an obvious case on retirement. The WMO will probrably be serious on Agatha just like they were on Allison in the Atlantic, and some less destructive Pacific examples like say, 2008's Alma and 1995's Isamel. 98.206.70.2 03:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hope you're right! --Patteroast 05:16, June 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think Agatha will be retired. YE 00:27, August 7, 2010 (UTC)


 * Here is my predictions

Agatha 86% what in the check happened here, the forth deadly storms in Guatemala history, for such a weak storm it killed 199 people

Blas 1% fishspinner

Celia 28% Cat 5, minor damage, Ioke got retired, should not be on the list in the first place.

Darby 3% probably not

YE 13:23, August 7, 2010 (UTC)

Mine: (I'm the 98 guy just above, but with a username now)


 * Agatha - 95-100% - being the 3rd costliest, 6th, possibly 5th, deadliest in the East Pacific's history, as well as the costliest in Guatemala's history - yes, it was worse than Stan and Mitch, I cannot see why Agatha won't be retired.


 * Blas - 0% - total fishspinner, did nothing to no one.


 * Celia - 0% - Sorry, YE, but storms aren't retired for setting records, a la Bertha and Marco. Ioke did wipe out Wake Island, which is the reason behind its retirement.


 * Darby - 0% - Almost hit central America, but still, never affected land.


 * Estelle - 0% - still out there, but probrably will be a fishspinner, can't see it affecting land.
 * Frank - 30-40% - Hmmm... 30 deaths and half a billion? EPac retirements are random(see Norbert), so I can't give it a huge shot at getting it, but a chance nontheless.

Ryan1000 02:39, August 8, 2010 (UTC)

So far, these are my predictions:


 * Agatha: 68% - I think it should be retired, but, well, EPAC retirements are unpredictable. $1 Billion and a load of deaths, for me, that's retirable.


 * Blas: 0% - *yawn*


 * Celia : 0% - Although a very rare June Cat 5, it is a fish in my book, well, although it hit some islands people have almost never heard of. In fact, I'll put Celia on my Hurricane Hall of Fail for its rapid weakening.


 * Darby: 0% - Other than being the earliest 2nd major hurricane, what did it do?


 * Estelle: 0% - See Blas
 * Frank: 35% - Notable damage, however, will it be enough to be retired? Maybe not.

<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC)


 * Celia is not an epic fail. It was suppost to weaken rapidly. Darren, you might wonna learn the definition of an epic fail. Colin is an example of one so is Bonnie.YE 04:01, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Not "epic", but a fail nonetheless IMO. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 04:23, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I give Frank a 3% chance of retirement. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:28, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hmm... Agatha is the main storm this year that grabs my attention. Does anyone else have gusses on Agatha? To tell the truth, I think everyone on the Wikia thinks Agatha has a decent shot of being retired, but I don't know what everyone's specific numbers are on it. I mean, only 4 people have said what they think Agatha has for retirement thus far. Is there anyone else who wants to put their numbers down? Or does no one else really care about it? Ryan1000 17:44, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * I now raise Frank chances to 28%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:40, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

Mid-season Predictions
What are you mid-season predictions. I think we will end up being 10-6-5. YE 04:06, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Only 10 storms? I say 19 storms, 10 of which become hurricanes, and 3 become major. Atomic7732 17:12, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * It almost the peak of hurricane season BTW. Remember last year we had 20 storms in a strong El Nino. We are in a La Nina. YE 14:55, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * No way! I thought they both were supposed to just start up right now! Storm after storm after storm! The trends look like that for the Atlantic at least. Atomic7732 16:57, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * You may never know, thats what happen last year. YE 18:42, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I can't say for sure; I still remember at about this time last year about the talk I had with SkyFury (I'm also "76") about the deadened basins worldwide. Like what I said last year, that active hot streak that started in 1995 is probrably closing up. The Atlantic has had nothing since Alex. The East Pacific had the highest June ACE on record, only to fall just as drastically last month to be the first time since 1966 when July was completely dead there. And the West Pacific? Like, are you kidding me? 3 JMA named storms as of now? And I thought 2009 was quiet enough. I think the final stats for the Atlantic will be 5-12 storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors. In the East Pacific, I think it'll be 8-13 storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors(with at least Agatha being retired). And the West Pacific, if they keep up on their dead streak, are probrably gonna get 14-21 storms, 7-11 typhoons, and 4-6 reaching category 3 or higher. I think we are in a 1977 period now, and it will remain that way for the next year or so. Then, the Pacific will go on a BIG hot streak for about two more decades or so, and the cycle goes on. Outside of the occasional ENSO event in the Pacific (1997/2006), everything has been quiet here. 98.206.70.2 03:52, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, actually, ATL was pretty average to slightly above, so by no means (this is La Nina, its expected) that ATL is dead, and by no means are we gonna see a 77 repeat. The EPAC spree was just an early season anomaly, probably getting some optimal environmental conditions (IIRC, Upward MJO). My predictions for EPAC are a 2007-type season, and I think it is possible for ATL to get to 15+ considering that it is La Nina. My predictions for WPAC are about at <25 storms.<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * After some thought, I'll revise my prediction to, 14 storms (counting TD's), 6 hurricanes, 3 major. Atomic7732 04:23, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * It will be intresting, but remember after July the basins woke up especially the EPAC and then the WPAC. You many never know. I agree the activity cyclone is almsot ending. This is going to be our last La Nina starting 2012 expect a storm El Nino an the EPAC to have 25 named storms or so. The ALT season will turn dead, WPAC will get a little more active. YE 12:53, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * YE, I think the active years should go on for a bit more time than you think. Maybe appx 5-10 years due to Global Warming, and I predict we should see about a few more La Nina episodes.<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * I personally dont believe in global Warming/Climate Change. But again only time will tell. YE 14:24, August 5, 2010 (UTC)

Late season predictions
We are a midst into the year. What are your guys predictions? I say 12-6-4. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:02, September 4, 2010 (UTC)


 * I'm lowering my August one and I'm at 11-4-3 with an ACE 45-75% of average, and my confidence is medium-high. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:08, September 4, 2010 (UTC)


 * 12-4-2. One more cane. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 23:16, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I say it's too soon to tell; I don't think September will have much more, but October... We must wait. I can't tell anything as of now. Ryan1000 15:54, September 5, 2010 (UTC)

Dead Basin thing
Why is the EPAC so dead? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:40, September 5, 2010 (UTC)


 * No durr, it's Moderate/Strong La Nina. What do you expect? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:42, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Watch this http://www.accuweather.com/video/590373063001/the-hurricane-season-is-it-dead-or-just-sleeping.asp?channel=vbbastaj JasonRees 15:52, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * In February, I thought we would still have a moderate El Nino through most of the year so I said 19-7-4. By June, I said 15-8-4. So this year is an underachiever from its original prediction. even then post-El Ninos are suppose to be fun. Look at 1992, 1998, and 2005. I need about 11-12 NS, and three to four interesting storms to make me satisfied. So far I have 6 NS and 2 interesting storms. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Do we need to do this here too? :P --Patteroast 02:58, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Blame Darren. He told me to do this. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone