Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season

AoI:South of Oaxaca
NHC's got a new blob at 10% risk. Not supposed to move much for a bit... a couple models have Howard popping up from this. --Patteroast 19:17, September 22, 2010 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Still at 10%, but invest'd now. --Patteroast 03:13, September 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * EPAC may be starting up again. I think I can see an Isis wave. Plus the one wave in the ATL that is east of Panama/Costa Rica. atomic 77 32 03:24, September 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * STILL AT 10%! And it looks awesome! This makes zero sense! YE Tropical Cyclone  13:40, September 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ahh, but young'n, convection is the key to sense. :P atomic 77 32 14:29, September 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think it got up to medium risk for a while, but it's at near 0% now. --Patteroast 00:18, September 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Back up to 10%. --Patteroast 21:04, September 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Finally off NHC... although still on NRL. --Patteroast 21:42, September 29, 2010 (UTC)

AoI:170 Degrees W
New on CPHC. This and 97C are twin blobs over in CPac... both at 20% risk, and both in unfavorable conditions to develop. --Patteroast 21:26, September 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * Near 0% now. Oh well. --Patteroast 02:41, September 24, 2010 (UTC)

AoI:South of Baja at 10 N
Hey! Not a terribly exciting blob, but anything at all is a surprise after how dead the EPac's been! NHC has this at 20% risk. --Patteroast 12:29, October 7, 2010 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Invest'd! Still at 20%, though. --Patteroast 19:52, October 7, 2010 (UTC)
 * And gone from NHC. Sigh. --Patteroast 03:07, October 9, 2010 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Right now, based on Agatha's death update (146), I want to give it a 95-100% chance of retirement. Does anyone else have guesses on Agatha's chances? 98.206.70.2 22:35, May 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * It certainly would look like a good bet, but EPac retirements are so rare and all-over-the-map that I'm not willing to give even Agatha more than a 50% chance. It's certainly deserving, though. --Patteroast 17:09, June 21, 2010 (UTC)

Why not? This storm is NOT like Alma 2 years ago, which, IMO, had virtually NO chance of retirement. Agatha, on the other hand, is like an EPac Allison, the THIRD most destructive EPac storm on record, as well as the 5TH deadliest. That's bad enough for me.98.206.70.2 02:37, June 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's not so much that I think that Agatha's not worthy of retirement... it absolutely is, and should be retired. It's just, looking at the list of retired EPac storms, I don't feel entirely confident that retirement choices will make any sense. Then again, I hope I'm wrong. Most of the really bad misses were a couple decades ago. --Patteroast 08:15, June 22, 2010 (UTC)

Well, I can cope with you on that. Fico, Fefa, Knut, and Iva(prob. retired to avoid confusion with Iwa), were all retired for unknown causes. However, Agatha will be retired by the same standards as storms like Pauline and Iniki were. Other storms, like 2002's Kenna, were retired, but Lane in 2006 wasn't, for 2x the damage, too. But Agatha is NOT Kenna or Lane. It's a big league storm, and it's an obvious case on retirement. The WMO will probrably be serious on Agatha just like they were on Allison in the Atlantic, and some less destructive Pacific examples like say, 2008's Alma and 1995's Isamel. 98.206.70.2 03:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hope you're right! --Patteroast 05:16, June 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think Agatha will be retired. YE 00:27, August 7, 2010 (UTC)


 * Here is my predictions

Agatha 86% what in the check happened here, the forth deadly storms in Guatemala history, for such a weak storm it killed 199 people

Blas 1% fishspinner

Celia 28% Cat 5, minor damage, Ioke got retired, should not be on the list in the first place.

Darby 3% probably not

YE 13:23, August 7, 2010 (UTC)

Mine: (I'm the 98 guy just above, but with a username now)


 * Agatha - 95-100% - being the 3rd costliest, 6th, possibly 5th, deadliest in the East Pacific's history, as well as the costliest in Guatemala's history - yes, it was worse than Stan and Mitch, I cannot see why Agatha won't be retired.


 * Blas - 0% - total fishspinner, did nothing to no one.


 * Celia - 0% - Sorry, YE, but storms aren't retired for setting records, a la Bertha and Marco. Ioke did wipe out Wake Island, which is the reason behind its retirement.


 * Darby - 0% - Almost hit central America, but still, never affected land.


 * Estelle - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Frank - 30-40% - Hmmm... 30 deaths and half a billion? EPac retirements are random(see Norbert), so I can't give Frank a huge shot at getting it, but a chance nontheless.


 * Georgette - 2% - It caused some impact on southern Baja, but get this- it just ain't gonna happen.

Ryan1000 02:39, August 8, 2010 (UTC)

So far, these are my predictions:


 * Agatha: 68% - I think it should be retired, but, well, EPAC retirements are unpredictable. $1 Billion and a load of deaths, for me, that's retirable.


 * Blas: 0% - *yawn*


 * Celia : 0% - Although a very rare June Cat 5, it is a fish in my book, well, although it hit some islands people have almost never heard of. In fact, I'll put Celia on my Hurricane Hall of Fail for its rapid weakening.


 * Darby: 0% - Other than being the earliest 2nd major hurricane, what did it do?


 * Estelle: 0% - See Blas
 * Frank: 35% - Notable damage, however, will it be enough to be retired? Maybe not.

Darren 23 Edits 02:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC)


 * Celia is not an epic fail. It was suppost to weaken rapidly. Darren, you might wonna learn the definition of an epic fail. Colin is an example of one so is Bonnie.YE 04:01, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Not "epic", but a fail nonetheless IMO. Darren 23 Edits 04:23, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I give Frank a 3% chance of retirement. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:28, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hmm... Agatha is the main storm this year that grabs my attention. Does anyone else have gusses on Agatha? To tell the truth, I think everyone on the Wikia thinks Agatha has a decent shot of being retired, but I don't know what everyone's specific numbers are on it. I mean, only 4 people have said what they think Agatha has for retirement thus far. Is there anyone else who wants to put their numbers down? Or does no one else really care about it? Ryan1000 17:44, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * I now raise Frank chances to 28%. YE Tropical Cyclone  13:40, September 8, 2010 (UTC)

Mid-season Predictions
What are you mid-season predictions. I think we will end up being 10-6-5. YE 04:06, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Only 10 storms? I say 19 storms, 10 of which become hurricanes, and 3 become major. Atomic7732 17:12, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * It almost the peak of hurricane season BTW. Remember last year we had 20 storms in a strong El Nino. We are in a La Nina. YE 14:55, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * No way! I thought they both were supposed to just start up right now! Storm after storm after storm! The trends look like that for the Atlantic at least. Atomic7732 16:57, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * You may never know, thats what happen last year. YE 18:42, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I can't say for sure; I still remember at about this time last year about the talk I had with SkyFury (I'm also "76") about the deadened basins worldwide. Like what I said last year, that active hot streak that started in 1995 is probrably closing up. The Atlantic has had nothing since Alex. The East Pacific had the highest June ACE on record, only to fall just as drastically last month to be the first time since 1966 when July was completely dead there. And the West Pacific? Like, are you kidding me? 3 JMA named storms as of now? And I thought 2009 was quiet enough. I think the final stats for the Atlantic will be 5-12 storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors. In the East Pacific, I think it'll be 8-13 storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors(with at least Agatha being retired). And the West Pacific, if they keep up on their dead streak, are probrably gonna get 14-21 storms, 7-11 typhoons, and 4-6 reaching category 3 or higher. I think we are in a 1977 period now, and it will remain that way for the next year or so. Then, the Pacific will go on a BIG hot streak for about two more decades or so, and the cycle goes on. Outside of the occasional ENSO event in the Pacific (1997/2006), everything has been quiet here. 98.206.70.2 03:52, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, actually, ATL was pretty average to slightly above, so by no means (this is La Nina, its expected) that ATL is dead, and by no means are we gonna see a 77 repeat. The EPAC spree was just an early season anomaly, probably getting some optimal environmental conditions (IIRC, Upward MJO). My predictions for EPAC are a 2007-type season, and I think it is possible for ATL to get to 15+ considering that it is La Nina. My predictions for WPAC are about at <25 storms.Darren 23 Edits 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * After some thought, I'll revise my prediction to, 14 storms (counting TD's), 6 hurricanes, 3 major. Atomic7732 04:23, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * It will be intresting, but remember after July the basins woke up especially the EPAC and then the WPAC. You many never know. I agree the activity cyclone is almsot ending. This is going to be our last La Nina starting 2012 expect a storm El Nino an the EPAC to have 25 named storms or so. The ALT season will turn dead, WPAC will get a little more active. YE 12:53, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * YE, I think the active years should go on for a bit more time than you think. Maybe appx 5-10 years due to Global Warming, and I predict we should see about a few more La Nina episodes.Darren 23 Edits 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * I personally dont believe in global Warming/Climate Change. But again only time will tell. YE 14:24, August 5, 2010 (UTC)

Late season predictions
We are a midst into the year. What are your guys predictions? I say 12-6-4. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:02, September 4, 2010 (UTC)


 * I'm lowering my August one and I'm at 11-4-3 with an ACE 45-75% of average, and my confidence is medium-high. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:08, September 4, 2010 (UTC)


 * 12-4-2. One more cane. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 23:16, September 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I say it's too soon to tell; I don't think September will have much more, but October... We must wait. I can't tell anything as of now. Ryan1000 15:54, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * What about now? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:13, October 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * The EPac is so dead right now we probrably won't get any storms in October... And Darren, as I mentioned earlier, it is not at all impossible that we could be less active(or as active) than 1977. We're currently at 7-3-2. The Eastern Pacific still looks like a winter wasteland right now and October is half over. If this inactivity continues for just 6 more weeks, we will have the least active season on record in terms of number of named storms and hurricanes, but not major hurricanes or ACE. I highly doubt we will have just one more storm to get to 1977's record low mark as of now, and based on the conditions in the EPac, I say this with 90-100% certainty. However, the effects felt on land from the 2010 Pacific hurricane season will not be long forgotten. Agatha, Frank and 8-E's precursor waves, and 11-E combined wrought over 2 billion in damages and over 560 deaths. This season was costlier and deadlier than every other Pacific hurricane season thus far in the 21st century combined, and specifically was the costliest season since 1997 and the deadliest since 1982. I will not forget the 2010 Pacific hurricane season - or Atlantic hurricane season - for a very long time to come, and I hope no other people on the Wikia will forget this year either, despite the worldwide inactivity overall. Ryan1000 00:19, October 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * IMO, THIS SEASON IS A BUST. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:13, October 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * The entire worldwide tropical cyclone season will be an epic bust, mainly because the Eastern and Western Pacific basins are setting record-low levels of activity this year. The Atlantic is only slightly above the 1995 to now average, but well above the 1900 to now long-term average. The sothern hemisphere is at one of their least active points seen in many years, and the West Pacific and Eastern Pacific basins are at their least active points on record. This year was very notable in terms of deaths and damages, but it is unbelievably inactive. I just can't believe how dead we are right now. Ryan1000 11:07, October 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Me neither. Let's now talk about next year. any chance of EL Nino? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:28, October 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't look forward to that. I would expect a neutral year like most of 2008 was - even though 2008 did certainly have a La Nina in part of the season. I don't know what will happen in next year's season, but I'm expecting a near-average season, personally. From this season, I would expect no more storms, the least active season on record in terms of named storms and hurricanes. Agatha will be retired, and everyone else is forgotten. I guess this is how I would sum up 2010's Pacific season. Nothing else for me to do for now. Ryan1000 04:24, October 24, 2010 (UTC)

Dead Basin thing
Why is the EPAC so dead? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:40, September 5, 2010 (UTC)


 * No durr, it's Moderate/Strong La Nina. What do you expect? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:42, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Watch this http://www.accuweather.com/video/590373063001/the-hurricane-season-is-it-dead-or-just-sleeping.asp?channel=vbbastaj JasonRees 15:52, September 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * In February, I thought we would still have a moderate El Nino through most of the year so I said 19-7-4. By June, I said 15-8-4. So this year is an underachiever from its original prediction. even then post-El Ninos are suppose to be fun. Look at 1992, 1998, and 2005. I need about 11-12 NS, and three to four interesting storms to make me satisfied. So far I have 6 NS and 2 interesting storms. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Do we need to do this here too? :P --Patteroast 02:58, September 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Blame Darren. He told me to do this. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone