Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page   Wall   Edits  01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

Pre-Season - May
Might as well have this section here, just like we do for the EPac.

January Extratropical Cyclone
I may be over-excited, and I probably am. But this European model run looks interesting. A 985 mbar low with a solid organization! Could this be Alex? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016010512/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_8.png Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 00:04, January 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * No way! I'd be astounded to see Alex form in January! I really hope it's right... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:56, January 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * I saw from someone on Weather Underground that the system will likely be extratropical by that point, but there was a very small, nonzero chance of SD One or SS Alex forming before it becomes extratropical. I'd really like to see One or Alex this early! Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 20:06, January 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Update: 10% chance in 48 hours and 30% chance in 5 days now. Clearly, Pali is stealing the attention of this low, but 30% chance is quite high for an Atlantic storm in January! It supposedly already has winds of 60-65 mph, which means if this thing forms it will likely be Alex, not One. Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 22:55, January 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, there's a system in the Atlantic AND the Pacific in JANUARY. I would love to see a subtropical Alex out of this. But what's even more astonishing about this system is that it's moving the wrong way, and it's still super El Nino. The tropics are going insane in the middle of winter! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:15, January 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * This thing actually have a big chance of becoming Alex imo. Right now its in a place like Chris and Cindy used to strength. It just need to  transition and we have our first named storm of the season.Allanjeffs 23:12, January 9, 2016 (UTC)

This would be quite interesting if Alex formed now, he would put quite an early start to the season. One that would be for the record books. Owen 00:24, January 10, 2016 (UTC)

Are you kidding? Two storms in the Atlantic and CPac, and in the middle of winter? This is really INSANE! If this becomes Alex, which I'd say has a good chance of occurring, it could be the earliest Atlantic named storm on record! This January is truly one for the record books. And, strangely, it seems like the SHem is not that active lately (except for Ula). Steve820''' 🎉2016 has arrived! 🎉''' 01:24, January 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * This system is looking better now, but is still not an invest, surprisingly. I think we should get 90L this afternoon and development chances will likely be upped to 40-50% in 5 days. Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 16:37, January 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * New TWO is out for this system, which now has an eye. It says it's now producing hurricane-force winds, and the chance of development is 20%/40%. Subtropical hurricane Alex, possibly? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:41, January 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * This has an even better chance at becoming Alex now. I think it's safe to say that hurricanes no longer follow their own logic.....  Leeboy100 Hello! 03:33, January 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40% in 48 hours, 40% in 5 days, but STILL not Invest 90L. I'm really rooting for Alex here, although it appears it may have weakened a bit from yesterday. Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 21:28, January 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might still have a shot at being Alex, I don't think there's much stopping it except for cool waters typical of the time of year. I am rooting for Alex to form also, and this is so amazing to watch! Steve820 Talk to me 02:48, January 12, 2016 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
this is getting more closer... -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  16:16, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * So it's finally an invest. And it's also gotten more subtropical-looking recently. By the way, if it makes landfall in Africa subtropical, I think that will be the first time a (sub)tropical system has made landfall on the west coast of Africa. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:49, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Tomorrow is the day. If we don't get Alex tomorrow we likely won't get Alex this month. To me, it looks like it has weakened since mid-day, when it briefly looked like a hurricane. I still don't see it as an invest though. Bob (talk) - Happy New Year! 20:09, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * This thing is looking subtropical now. It will likely be named today. We are getting closer! http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/thumbs/medium/tc16/ATL/90L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20160113.1415.goes13.x.vis1km_high.90LINVEST.45kts-989mb-260N-325W.100pc.jpg Bob (talk) - Form Alex Form! 15:40, January 13, 2016 (UTC)

70/70 and avisories could be issued later today... -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  18:10, January 13, 2016 (UTC)

We will probably get Alex at 5pm. It have been so long since a ts develop in January.Allanjeffs 18:21, January 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Subtropical Storm Alex is on the way. Already developing an eye feature, wouldn't be surprised to see a January hurricane here. Owen 19:17, January 13, 2016 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Alex
confirmed by NHC -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  20:21, January 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * And there we have it, the earliest forming tropical/subtropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Owen 21:04, January 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Not quite; that record belongs to the 1938 season, whose first storm (which became a hurricane) formed on January 3. Still, I'm flabbergasted that this is happening. This must be the first time on record that an off-season Atlantic storm and an off-season EPAC storm existed simultaneously. This is unreal. (For the record, Alex's debut advisory puts the system at 45 kts/990 mbar.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:52, January 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's January 13th and we have subtropical storm. 50 mph and 990 millibars. I have no words........  001ʎoqǝǝן Welcome to the weirdness! 22:05, January 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is ASTONISHING. I can't believe this happened. 50 mph seems like an underestimate for this system, it's rare to see eyes in storms under 60 mph. I think Alex will likely peak in the 60-65 mph range right before it turns extratropical on Friday. Bob (talk) - ALEX HAS FORMED! 00:36, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Some   50knots vectors found so a 60mph storm is likely at 9pm.Allanjeffs 00:51, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is pretty unbelievable, and I'm quite shocked. It is now the earliest named storm on record, but of course, not the earliest of all time in the basin. I agree 50 mph is an underestimate. I would put early Alex at around 60 mph instead. Steve820 Talk to me 01:24, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * 60 mph now. 988 mbar pressure. I hope Alex becomes a hurricane! Bob (talk) - ALEX HAS FORMED! 01:56, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow. The Northern Hemisphere (Specifically Northwest) continues to amaze this winter. Alex is an amazing looking storm, and is astounding to see in a super El Nino year (although with global warming this might be more common in the future) A subtropical hurricane from Alex seems unlikely, but I do expect to see Alex strengthen to at least 65 mph while subtropical. What a way to start the Atlantic for 2016, although I don't think this automatically means it will be hyperactive this year. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:02, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Usually this list is used for active or destructive seasons. ex 1992,1998,2004 and 2010. This might be a repeat of those. Alex is looking really good might become a hurricane today.I am not sure though if sub tropical hurricanes exist.Allanjeffs 07:12, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 70 mph and a pressure of  984. Alex is now the second strongest storm in January on record in the Atlantic just below Alice. A little more organization and we have a hurricane.Allanjeffs 08:49, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is one of only 4 tropical or subtropical storms to form in January in the Atlantic, after the 1938 hurricane as Dylan mentioned, a tropical storm in early January 1951, and a subtropical storm in 1978. Alex is the 3rd latest of those, beating only the 1978 storm. Also, Alice and Zeta crossed into January from December 1954 and 2005. However, this is the earliest (and only) date an off-season Atlantic and EPac storm were simultaneously active, the previous record was held in 2012 when we had two storms in May in the Atlantic and EPac (Alberto was active May 20, which was the day Aletta dissipated and Bud formed). Also, this thing is going to move over the central Azores islands as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane, so there could be some impacts from this. The only other January storm to affect land was Alice '54, which caused minor damage and no deaths when it moved into the lessers. When I woke up for my birthday today, I didn't expect to see this; it's quite a present to withold indeed! Ryan1000 12:33, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Happy birthday, Ryan!!! I just checked ATCF and... um... AL, 01, 2016011412,, BEST, 0, 308N, 287W, 75, 981, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 1012, 300, 15, 90, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ALEX, D, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:24, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Allan: a cyclone can only be a hurricane if it's fully tropical, so hurricane-strength subtropical storms don't count (STS 1 from the 1979 season is an example), but the way Alex is looking, I wouldn't be surprised if it became fully tropical later today (if it isn't already). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:40, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Happy birthday Ryan! What a great present, huh? Coincidentally Alex's 2010 incarnation formed on June 25th, which is my birthday. And it could get better, because Alex is at 70 mph and 984 millibars. It could become a hurricane. If it does, I'll be so happy. Come on Alex. You can do it! 😀. I'm on an Amazon Kindle fire. Which explains the emoji.  001ʎoqǝǝן Welcome to the weirdness! 14:16, January 14, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Alex
uglier and uglier for the Azores... -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  14:43, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict 2x) Pretty sure the NHem missed the memo that it's WINTER, but I'll take what I can get. Say hello to the first January hurricane in six decades! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:43, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow. I wasn't expecting a fully tropical hurricane with that advisory! Indeed, Alex does not understand what "winter" means. The new forecast shows further strengthening to 90 mph now. This is becoming bad news for the Azores, and I think they might be caught by surprise at a January hurricane. Insane to see the first January hurricane in 61 years, but let's just hope Alex isn't very destructive. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:03, January 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex is now one of only 3 January hurricanes ever in the Atlantic, and only the second to form in the month, after the 1938 hurricane. This is also the first time an off-season hurricane formed in both the Atlantic and Pacific in the same year. Also, Alex is looking to be the strongest off-season landfall in the Atlantic, since it's expected to move right over the central Azores at this intensity. Ryan1000 16:35, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm not even surprised anymore. Watch it rapidly strengthen to a category 5. Just kidding (hopefully).  001ʎoqǝǝן Welcome to the weirdness! 00:21, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * People in the Azores might be really surprised to see an actual winter hurricane strike them and cause impacts. Alex, you don't know what 'winter' is! If this same storm happened in the middle of summer, it'll almost certainly have been a powerful C3+ monster threatening the Azores with huge scary impacts. Since it's winter, this is weaker than it otherwise could have been if it happened in the summer, and I shudder to think of how it could have been during summer time. It's strength right now should most likely be its peak strength while tropical, and extratropical transition is expected soon. I'm looking at the records and it appears that Alex might be the strongest January forming storm on record, having beat Hurricane One from 1938's strength. If you count Alice which formed in December, it'll be the second strongest Atlantic TC to exist in the month of January. The satellite pictures still show a good looking eye in the middle although it's not as good looking as before. It's been making me feel like Alex is staring at me. P.S. Happy Birthday Ryan!! :) Steve820 Talk to me 00:47, January 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alex hasn't been doing too well as of recently, at least in terms of looking tropical. The entire southern edge of the convection is gone now, and it might become post-tropical sooner than expected if it doesn't have convection wrapped around the center again soon. I do think Alex reached 90 mph in between advisories, as it looked great until around the 5 PM AST advisory, when the eyewall began to erode. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:04, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * The Azores don't experience hurricanes very often, the last time they got hit by a hurricane was Gordon of 2006, which passed over the southern islands as a weak, disorganized hurricane. But Gordon formed in the middle of the season, an off-season Azores hurricane (let alone TS) landfall has never been recorded before. However, due to Alex's small size and low intensity, it's unlikely it'll cause enough damage to the islands to warrant retirement, even though it's certainly an extremely rare sight to behold. Ryan1000 03:19, January 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * I agree that a small category one hurricane shouldn't be that bad, and plus the Azores are so hilly they won't really have issues with storm surge. There would have to be a major hurricane-related disaster there to warrant retirement, and let's hope that doesn't happen. In terms of intensity, Alex has weakened slightly, but the current satellite presentation looks about the same if not a bit better than 3 hours ago, so if this continues a hurricane landfall is pretty certain. Crazy to see the strongest January Atlantic tropical system in history approaching landfall in an area unusual for any hurricane to reach. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:47, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex is now passing just east of the island of Terceira in the Azores, still at category 1 strength. It'll probably become extratropical later today or tomorrow though. Ryan1000 14:25, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alex
nearly dead... -- HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  14:46, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alex
bye Alex! --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  22:25, January 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alex, we will miss you. See you again in 2021, it sounds like you're coming back! Bob (talk) - ALEX HAS FORMED! 23:01, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * 2022... lists rotate every six years, not five :P Farewell Alex, you wonderfully strange thing. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:01, January 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alex is just extratropical. Not fully dead yet. In fact it's going to go back to hurricane strength according to the forecast. But it's near death.  001ʎoqǝǝן Welcome to the weirdness! 00:21, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Bye, Alex! Won't come again until 2022! It's finally dead as a TC, but its extratropical remnants will linger through the weekend, and it's forecast to die out south of Greenland. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:43, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Ryan, Alex did actually make landfall in Terceira as a 70mph s torm, but the interesting part is that Eric Blake wrote on twitter that he would be the one to write Alex report and that it will be done, before June. I believe it will be upgrade to 90mph hurricane or cat 2.Btw Happy late Birthday Ryan, I hope you enjoyed it with your friends and family. GBU.Allanjeffs 00:55, January 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Terceira got the western eyewall of the storm, not exactly the center of the eye, which was the weaker half of Alex. If Alex's eastern eyewall hit Terceira, they would've sustained hurricane-force winds and maybe some more damage, but they didn't. And Tyvm. :) Ryan1000 05:07, January 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Ryan this was the message of the NHC,Friday 15 at 11am
 * DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

-- Satellite and surface data indicate that Alex made landfall on the island of Terceira around 915 AM AST (1315 UTC) as a tropical storm with an intensity of 70 mph (110 km/h). So that is why I said it was a landfall. Allanjeffs 02:13, January 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * I got my statement from a blog post from Dr. Masters, he stated "Alex’s western eyewall made landfall on the island of Terceira in the central Azores, roughly 1000 miles west of Portugal, at around 8:15 am EST with tropical-storm force winds of 60 knots (70 mph)." The center of Alex did not cross over Terceira, the western eyewall did. That blog post also states that Alex was also one of only two storms in the Atlantic to form that far northeast (more specifically, north of 30 N latitude and east of 30 W longitude), after Vince of 2005, which did so in October instead of January. Ryan1000 04:17, January 19, 2016 (UTC)

Possible April Storm
This is very interesting...look at this ECMWF run for next Tuesday! A 984 mbar low with a solid organization! Looks just like Alex did at this time! Could this be Bonnie? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016042312/ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_4.png -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 18:11, April 23, 2016 (UTC)

That would be something. A January hurricane and an April tropical stom as well? I don't think that's ever happened in  one season. Ever. Owen   03:01, April 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * Probably a sign of global warming xD On a serious note, this occurrence is extremely rare. To my knowledge, I have never seen two storms form before May in the Atlantic basin in recorded history. It would be absolutely amazing to see Bonnie before the start of May. A rare occurrence indeed. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820  <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 05:14, April 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * It hasn't been invested, at least not yet, so the chances of this forming may be dropping. However, it is looking slightly better on satellite imagery now, let's hope it can pull off a stunt and become Subtropical Storm Bonnie! Sadly, it's not all that likely.  -Bob   <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 21:48, April 25, 2016 (UTC)

Possible May Storm
GFS model is saying that a low pressure system will form near the end of the month around the 24th and have winds of around 50 knots, other models are showing the same thing. Jdcomix (talk) 17:18, May 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * While this isn't the same storm you are talking about, the GFS has been consistently forming a possible subtropical or tropical depression or storm off the United States East Coast around Memorial Day. Will be interesting to see if we can get Bonnie out of this, it would be amazing to have two pre-season storms. -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 17:32, May 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * I agree, two pre-season storms in the Atlantic would be amazing. I can't wait to see how this model storm will turn out. Hopefully we get Bonnie during the next week, or before the end of May! <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 03:12, May 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * Whether this thing forms remains to be seen, but most models keep it a tropical depression at strongest. Not invested yet, but the Weather Channel and Accuweather have both mentioned it. There is also a possibility of another low forming nearby, which also has a chance to develop. I think this thing should be invested tomorrow if development chances continue to improve. -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 19:38, May 24, 2016 (UTC)

This is now officially on the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook with a 30% chance of developing in 5 days as it slowly approaches the southeastern U.S. coast. If this becomes Bonnie sometime within the next week, it would be the second time in 4 years that the Atlantic had two storms form pre-season. Ryan1000 20:35, May 24, 2016 (UTC)

50% chance now over the next five days. Come on Bonnie!!! Jdcomix (talk) 14:34, May 25, 2016 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
where is bob now  -- <font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile | <font face="Comic Sans MS"> insert message here ×  edits  ×  spam goes here!  15:22, May 25, 2016 (UTC)

The five day cyclone formation chance is 50% according to the NHC (National Hurricane Center). Plus, I want Bonnie to form not TD Two. If it only goes a Tropical Depression, oh well. I really want another off-season storm! 70.190.21.39 17:34, May 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * YAY, an invest, finally! I think the maximum we can get from this system would be a 40-45 mph tropical or subtropical storm. Whatever it is, it will make landfall, most likely in the Carolinas. -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 19:20, May 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * UPDATE: Now 30% chance in 48 hours and 60% chance in 5 days. Looks increasingly likely that we could get Bonnie out of this! Atlantic hurricane season really needs to be extended to May 15, as if it forms it will be the 6th time in the last 9 years that a May storm has formed in the Atlantic. -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 23:48, May 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * It probably will become Bonnie later this week, but don't expect it to get past tropical storm strength if it does. Regardless, it will still bring a lousy Memorial Day weekend to parts of the southeast, even if it's not too serious. Ryan1000 03:07, May 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, GFS and CMC do intensify the storm and instead take it to South America (is the forecast glitched?)182.58.60.251 03:43, May 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * Unless you're looking at a different storm, then yeah, it's probably glitched. Ryan1000 11:52, May 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * 50/70 now -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 12:46, May 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * It glitched?! Well, as Bob said, in the next 48 hours, the formation is 50% and in 5 days, 70%. Go Bonnie go! 70.190.21.39 17:39, May 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wouldn't be the first time, last year one of the models showed TS Henri (I think) off of the Nigeria coast. Also, lol at the HWRF forecasting this thing to be an 85 mph hurricane landfalling in SC. It shouldn't get past minimal (sub)tropical storm strength by the time it reaches the South Carolina/southern North Carolina border. But flooding rains will be a threat regardless of how intense this is. Ryan1000 18:45, May 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * 60/70, Bonnie is coming soon. Ryan1000 21:37, May 26, 2016 (UTC)

80/80 now! Time to get hyped. We will likely have Bonnie tomorrow or Saturday! SC landfall looking like the most likely scenario as of now. -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 23:47, May 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Bonnie is about to form! Been waiting for Bonnie for a while now. While it shouldn't be too strong and it could be a large rainmaker for the southeast, I hope it's something fascinating to track. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 00:09, May 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * 90/90 and it could form today. Looks like Bonnie or Two is on the way -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 11:43, May 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * {| align="center" bgcolor="#5780d5" border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" frame="box" rules="rows" style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Verdana,Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12.96px;line-height:normal;" width="525"

! align="center" height="22" style="font-size:11.664px;margin:0px;padding:0px;overflow:auto;" width="20%"|Storm Name ! style="font-size:11.664px;margin:0px;padding:0px;overflow:auto;" width="20%"|Storm ID ! style="font-size:11.664px;margin:0px;padding:0px;overflow:auto;" width="20%"|Dvorak Intensity ! style="font-size:11.664px;margin:0px;padding:0px;overflow:auto;" width="20%"|Last Classified ! style="font-size:11.664px;margin:0px;padding:0px;overflow:auto;" width="20%"|Basin
 * - align="center"
 * }
 * From SAB
 * REMARKS...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION

EVEN AS SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES. SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREES FROM A SMALL COLD OVERCAST. THIS RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5 USING A SHEAR PATTERN. PT IS ALSO 1.5 WHILE MET IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I am no longer sure whether 91L can become Bonnie 182.58.36.154 14:31, May 27, 2016 (UTC)

recon nearing 91L... -- <font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile | <font face="Comic Sans MS"> insert message here ×  edits  ×  spam goes here!  16:25, May 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still 90/90 but yay, Bonnie's about to form! I'm so excited! 70.190.21.39 16:58, May 27, 2016 (UTC) P.S. Bonnie will make landfall in South Carolina.


 * 91L became more disorganized due to south-westerly shear on satellite, as per Intellicast 182.58.36.140 17:36, May 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yay, something in the tropics! Although, I'm not as sure it will become Bonnie, but I am confident that we have our second depression of the season. One thing's for sure though, this isn't becoming a hurricane.  Leeboy100 Hello! 17:39, May 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * recon has west winds. this is a TD/SD or TS/SS  -- <font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile | <font face="Comic Sans MS"> insert message here ×  edits  ×  spam goes here!  18:44, May 27, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
yesssssssss! -- <font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile | <font face="Comic Sans MS"> insert message here ×  edits  ×  spam goes here!  20:13, May 27, 2016 (UTC)

This just in: 91-L will be upgraded to Tropical Depression 2 at 5:00 PM Eastern time! Here we go! Leeboy100 Hello! 20:16, May 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Forecast to become a weak tropical storm when it reaches South Carolina by Sunday, then turn offshore and dissipate. It'll probably get wet in and around the Charleston area, most likely. Ryan1000 21:08, May 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Finally! I have been waiting for hours to wait for the invest to become a tropical depression. And guess what? It will become Tropical Storm Bonnie later on (according to NHC). 70.190.21.39 22:49, May 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's not looking very organized at this time. I really want to see it become Bonnie tonight or tomorrow. Let's see what the Gulf Stream can do. -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 00:53, May 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * I do not even see this as a TC. UW-CIMSS at T2.2, with Shear scene (LLCC is not under the CDO). Moreover there is only 1 band of thin deep convection.This does not even look tropical on Dvorak imagery.
 * 2016MAY27 221500 2.2 1007.2 32.0 2.2 2.4 2.5 0.2T/hour OFF OFF 12.84 -21.02 SHEAR N/A N/A 28.63 74.93 FCST GOES13 33.4
 * 182.58.36.140 01:46, May 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * UPDATE - NHC advisory says environment is unfavorable
 * The biggest positive factor for the

cyclone intensifying in the next 12 to 36 hours is its movement over the Gulf Stream, where SSTs are above 27C. However, moderate to strong vertical shear and dry air argue against significant strengthening


 * I'm glad to see this become a new TD! Bonnie is coming by tomorrow. I know it. However, the environmental conditions might limit strengthening to a maximum peak of 45-50 mph. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 03:31, May 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Dvorak not very promising, cloud tops are warming fast, deep convetion is going down. Could see the storm becoming post-tropical well before being named or making landfall. 182.58.96.76 05:21, May 28, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bonnie
It's here! -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 20:35, May 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Woohoo! Jdcomix (talk) 20:42, May 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Finally (again)! Bonnie's here! 70.190.21.39 21:02, May 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Just changed it to The Weather Channel (yes, it's actually on today to cover this, instead of playing original programming) after coming back from going out with some friends, and saw that it has become named! But, I'm actually having mixed emotions because there was a camera from South Carolina, where it showed what I hate most about weak storms. Nobody's taking this seriously, and people on the beaches are getting in the water. I've always hated it when people shrug it off and say "Meh, it's just a puny tropical storm." People should stop ignoring these, because it doesn't have to be a hurricane to cause damage and fatalities. Sorry for that little rant, and I am happy that Bonnie has formed. And it isn't even hurricane season yet!  Leeboy100 Hello! 23:45, May 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, just because this is weak in peak intensity doesn't mean it's not going to be a threat, it's already possible 1 person may have drowned from a rip current generated by Bonnie. What people don't seem to understand about rip currents is the intensity of a hurricane doesn't determine how dangerous they are, because rip currents aren't caused by winds blowing on the surface of the sea but by the water from breaking waves trying to find a way to flow back out to sea. This is particularly dangerous on barrier islands with narrow gaps between them, but rip currents can occur anywhere with breaking waves. Which explains why even far-away Cape Verde hurricanes like Edouard '14 can cause fatalities from their outermost bands reaching the coastline. But, back to Bonnie, it seems most of the convection associated with Bonnie has been pulled away from it due to strong shear lately, and it may weaken back to a depression before it reaches the South Carolina coastline. Ryan1000 04:27, May 29, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Bonnie
Bonnie has made landfall and has weakened to a TD. -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 13:27, May 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Bonnie's strength is now 30 mph/1011 mb, and it should be a remnant low by the next advisory. Bonnie was pretty fascinating to witness, because of it being an early bird and the 2nd pre-season storm this year (despite the fact that it was a weakling). <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 20:44, May 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * That fatality I mentioned that could've happened earlier hasn't been confirmed yet, hopefully he was saved. Overall impacts shouldn't be bad for the Charleston area. Ryan1000 21:11, May 29, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie
<p style="font-weight:normal;margin-top:1em;margin-bottom:1em;">Farewell, Bonnie! -Bob   <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM COLIN FORM! 15:24, May 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Bonnie became post-tropical while I was sleeping. Goodbye Bonnie! And congratulations, you made landfall in South Carolina. 70.190.21.39 17:07, May 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Farewell! Time to wait for Colin. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820  <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 22:56, May 30, 2016 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Remnants of Bonnie were just invested, monitoring for possible redevelopment, 25 mph winds right now with a pressure of 1008 mbars. Jdcomix (talk) 01:26, June 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Convection seems to have increased on the east side of the storm. Jdcomix (talk) 01:38, June 1, 2016 (UTC)

Conditions as of right now appear to favor an exceptionally active Atlantic hurricane season
Wind shear is not very high at all in most of the Atlantic (particularly the Gulf), and areas with wind shear will lose a good portion of it by the peak of the season, and SSTs are some of the warmest we have seen in years. First   hyperactive season since 2010 anyone? Jdcomix (talk) 15:16, May 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm thinking we're in for an above average season. I noticed the other day TSR jumped their forecast number of named storms from 12 to 17, which is a HUGE increase. Forecasts for the season are either near average or well above average, and I'm thinking somewhere in between with about 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.  -Bob   <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM COLIN FORM! 15:47, May 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm thinking 15-18 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and a couple majors. Like Bob said, we might be in for an above-average season. This season will be interesting to follow, and I can't wait to check out what the rest of the season has in store! A hyperactive 2010-like season seems a little more unlikely IMO, but I wouldn't rule it out. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820  <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 20:49, May 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Post El Nino years can sometimes be tricky to forecast, especially this time since the dissipation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) could be happening, or is uncertain. The range for number of storms, hurricanes, and majors varies greatly between most forecasting agencies. We could pull a 2010 or 1998, both of which were La Nina years after their respective El Nino years and were both very active seasons, but we could also pull a 2007 or 1973, also La Nina years following El Nino years, and not see a hyperactive season. Ryan1000 02:42, May 30, 2016 (UTC)



Possible June storm
GFS is showing a low developing around Florida about June 6th. Possibility of Colin already??? Jdcomix ( talk ) 14:03, May 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * Another one <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle  •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  15:22, May 31, 2016 (UTC) (yes, i'm back after 5 months)


 * Yeah, this season looks like it's gonna be ridiculous Jdcomix (talk) 16:27, May 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * ECMWF, the most reliable model, has been consistently showing this system recently. It has been noted on Accuweather. I think we could get Colin out of this, but it's too early to tell. It depends mostly on whether the shear weakens or not.  -Bob   <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM COLIN FORM! 19:10, May 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am hoping we see Colin from this. However, like Bob said, it seems too early to tell. That is considered the most reliable model though, so there is quite a chance that this will develop in my opinion. I would like to see shear weaken so Colin can come from this. So far, this season seems to have potential to be very active and fun to track. The end of Bob's signature is my exact thoughts about what I want this system to do :P <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820  <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 21:09, May 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think this has the potential to become the elusive June hurricane, it is actually in exceptionally warm waters south of Cuba now. Jdcomix (talk) 01:31, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Model consensus is strong that Colin may form next week. No NHC mention (yet). CMC, GFS and ECMWF all form this system now. Come on Colin!  -Bob   <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM COLIN FORM! 13:38, June 1, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Southern Gulf of Mexico
<p style="font-weight:normal;">Yellow crayon has been drawn in the southern Gulf for early next week, didn't even know this was there. Jdcomix (talk) 17:53, June 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * 0/20. If this forms into Colin, it will be the earliest third named storm in the Atlantic on record! Models generally track it into Florida for landfall.  -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM COLIN FORM! 17:54, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'd say that Colin is possible out of this. The NHC says that it could only develop slowly though. Come on, Colin! <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   20:58, June 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * 0/30. Quite a few models, including ECMWF, CMC and NAVGEM take this system to near Hurricane strength! Hurricane Colin, maybe? -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM COLIN FORM! 12:03, June 2, 2016 (UTC)

90Q.INVEST
what the... is this a sign of hyperactivity? --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  happy holidays!  and  happy new  year  2016!  20:29, January 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Subtropical systems form occasionally in the South Atlantic, but it's still somewhat rare to see storms there. I hope it becomes a fully tropical system though, as that would be neat. I'm not sure if the South and North Atlantic activities are related though in terms of the North Atlantic season though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:50, January 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Whoa, it´s a fully tropical depression now. Wasn´t expecting that. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:33, January 7, 2016 (UTC) (Forgot to login)


 * It dissipated some time ago, and unfortunately was not named. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:16, January 7, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions (It's early, but why not?)
 * Alex - <font color="#669">1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022! Bob (talk) - ALEX HAS FORMED! 17:32, January 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">1% - A storm that made landfall in South Carolina, but hasn't really caused significant damage that I know of. She'll be back in 2022. -Bob <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM BONNIE FORM! 13:27, May 29, 2016 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions:

(Other users can feel free to follow my scale and use my colors)

The deaths and damage don't have to combine to form a percentage. For example, Sandy only had a death toll qualifying for 65%, but its damage toll qualified for 100%. The percentage given for the storm is only for the higher side (100% in Sandy's case).

If a storm becomes one of the most destructive of all time for a certain area (like Erika 2015), the chance will be bumped up by 40%. For example, Erika's damage and deaths only qualified for 40%, but because it was one of the most destructive storms ever for Dominica, the chance would be bumped up to 80%.

0% = Didn't touch inhibited land; no deaths or damage.

0.01% = Usually touches inhibited land, but causes none to a very insignificant amount of damage. 0 deaths (direct) and 0 indirect deaths (only for land touchers), at maximum 3 indirect deaths (only from offshore hurricanes, usually surfers drowning or similar stuff).

1% = Almost always touches inhibited land, causing minimal damage and no direct deaths. It can cause up to 5 indirect deaths.

5% = Causes from minimal to $20 million in damage, or causes up to 1 direct death and up to 7 indirect deaths.

10% = Very minor damage ($20 to $50 million), up to 3 direct deaths or 10 indirect deaths.

15% = Minor damage ($50 to $75 million), up to 5 direct deaths or 15 indirect deaths.

20% = Somewhat minor damage ($75 to $100 million), up to 10 direct deaths or 18 indirect deaths.

25% = Slight damage ($100 to $200 million), up to 15 direct deaths or 20 indirect deaths.

30% = Moderate damage ($200 to $350 million), up to 25 direct or indirect deaths.

35% = Larger damage amount ($350 to $500 million), up to 40 deaths.

40% = Somewhat significant damage ($500 to $750 million), up to 55 deaths.

45% = Large damage toll ($750 to $875 million), up to 65 deaths.

50% = Significant damage ($875 million to $1.5 billion), up to 75 deaths.

55% = Widespread damage ($1.5 to $3 billion), up to 100 deaths.

60% = Massive damage ($3 to $5 billion), up to 200 deaths.

65% = Severe damage ($5 to $7.5 billion), up to 300 deaths.

70% = Extreme damage ($7.5 to $10 billion), up to 400 deaths.

75% = Insane damage ($10 to $15 billion), up to 500 deaths.

80% = Super insane damage ($15 to $20 billion), up to 750 deaths.

85% = Catastrophic devastation ($20 to $25 billion), up to 875 deaths.

90% = Untold devastation ($25 to $35 billion), up to 1000 deaths.

95% = Cataclysmic devastation ($35 to $45 billion), up to 1500 deaths.

99% = Insane cataclysm ($45 to $55 billion), up to 2000 deaths.

100% = Damage toll exceeds $55 billion (like Sandy or Katrina) or death toll is 2000+.

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

<font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - Despite its extreme earliness, it didn't do much save for some Azores impacts.
 * Bonnie: 10% - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.

Raindrop's Retirements:
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1%  - A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:31, January 16, 2016 (UTC)

Puffle's retirement predictions
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)

TG's Retirements
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 and Puffle for the retirement colors)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#449">5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. T  G  20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)