Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

90S.INVEST
Low chance of development. But this looks pretty good. I woudn't be suprised if this forms fast.10'Q.'INVEST 02:32, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

Already? Getting a October storm is like getting an Atlantic storm in April! Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:18, October 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's up to medium chance. Yqt1001 00:16, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's very usual. I wouldn't be suprised if Alenga forms here.10'Q.'INVEST 01:03, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone.10'Q.'INVEST 20:14, October 6, 2011 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
We missed 91S already, and here's another one! Don't know how high the chance is because my browser (Google Chrome) can't load the JTWC page.10'Q.'INVEST 00:06, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Gone.10'Q.'INVEST 23:41, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

96S.INVEST
TCFA issued. 01F.KIEWII 20:54, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

Medium chance. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:31, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

Low chance. Cyclone10 Contributions  17:56, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

Pretty much fell apart now. I guess we'll have to wait until December or a bit later. Ryan1000 02:44, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

It has interacted with the ITCZ. 01F.KIEWII 00:06, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

But still, it has a low chance. Cyclone10 Contributions  00:53, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

This invest is still here! 13R.KIEWII 12:53, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

97S. INVEST
TCFA issued. 01F.KIEWII 20:54, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

Which one's which? If this is the system threatening Madagascar as we speak, then i'd be surprised if we don't get our first storm out of this. It's been a really quiet SWIO season for most of 2011, particularly the first half of it. Overall, we didn't need more than Yasi, but Alenga could be a very painful start to 2011-12. Ryan1000 01:11, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

96S is the active one, this one is gone. 01F.KIEWII 01:43, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

98S.INVEST
We have a new one here again. 01F.KIEWII 14:46, November 28, 2011 (UTC)

High chance now...we might see a TD. Cyclone10 Contributions  16:04, December 3, 2011 (UTC)



A bit more thunderstorms near the LLCC would be perfect. Cyclone10 Contributions  03:01, December 4, 2011 (UTC)

And it couldn't...last TCFA issued. Cyclone10 Contributions  16:47, December 4, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 01S
Is here.   Cyclone10   Talk    Contribs    Hurricane    04:30,12/5/2011

Expected to come back to the Australia basin.   Cyclone10   Talk    Contribs  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0;">  Hurricane   <span style="border:1px solid #eb0; border-left:0; border-top-right-radius:1ex; border-bottom-right-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomright:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topright:1ex; background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#eb0"> 04:38,12/5/2011

Tropical Storm Alenga
Now a named tropical storm. 13R.KIEWII 12:56, December 5, 2011 (UTC)

Expected to become a tropical cyclone. <span style="background-color:white; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); border:1px solid #eb0; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; border-top-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; border-right:0;"><span style="border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex;">  Cyclone10  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0; border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex;"> Talk  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff">  Contribs  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0;">  Hurricane   <span style="border:1px solid #eb0; border-left:0; border-top-right-radius:1ex; border-bottom-right-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomright:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topright:1ex; background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#eb0"> 13:05,12/5/2011


 * It might become a C1, but it won't be anything exceptional as far as i'm concerned, just a C1 peak and it may hit Australia in the long run. It isn't unheard of for storms to cross from the SWIO into the AUS region, but it is unheard of for storms to form here and hit Australia as full-blown hurricane-strength storms. If that happens, it would be a first with Alenga. Ryan1000 14:29, December 5, 2011 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Alenga
Now a severe tropical storm with winds of 60 mph (10-min) and a central pressure of 989 mb. 13R.KIEWII 15:37, December 5, 2011 (UTC)

Now with 65 mph (10-min) and pressure reading of 982 mb. <span style="background-color:white; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); border:1px solid #eb0; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; border-top-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; border-right:0;"><span style="border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex;">  Cyclone10  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0; border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex;"> Talk  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff">  Contribs  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0;">  Hurricane   <span style="border:1px solid #eb0; border-left:0; border-top-right-radius:1ex; border-bottom-right-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomright:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topright:1ex; background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#eb0"> 22:57,12/5/2011

<p style="margin-left: 40px">There's a color in the active storms header for severe tropical storms btw, it's ccffff. No one added it in earlier, but I put that in now. Ryan1000 23:26, December 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well if we are going to have a colour for severe tropical storms then why not typhoons, super typhoons, moderate tropical storm, severe tropical cyclones etc.. Yqt1001 23:30, December 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down slightly to 60mph. Yqt1001 00:56, December 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * But it could still become a tropical cyclone (category). <span style="background-color:white; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #ff0033 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #222)); border:1px solid #eb0; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; border-top-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; border-right:0;"><span style="border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex;">  Cyclone10  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #222 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #3399ff)); color:#3399ff; border:1px solid #eb0; border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex;"> Talk  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #3399ff)); color:#fff">  Contribs  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #ff0033 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #3399ff)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0;">  Hurricane   <span style="border:1px solid #eb0; border-left:0; border-top-right-radius:1ex; border-bottom-right-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomright:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topright:1ex; background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#eb0"> 02:04,12/6/2011

Australian Region
We could have Bakung (Jakarta) by next week. 13R.KIEWII 20:01, December 2, 2011 (UTC)

99S.INVEST
Medium chance. 13R.KIEWII 15:45, December 3, 2011 (UTC)

High chance. Cyclone10 Contributions  21:19, December 3, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I think we're about to begin by now. Anyways, this storm shouldn't affect land. Ryan1000 22:11, December 3, 2011 (UTC)

Was a tropical low earlier, not now. 13R.KIEWII 21:18, December 4, 2011 (UTC)

Now is a tropical cyclone Allanjeffs 03:37, December 5, 2011 (UTC)

In SWIO basin. <span style="background-color:white; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); border:1px solid #eb0; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; border-top-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; border-right:0;"><span style="border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex;">  Cyclone10  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0; border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex;"> Talk  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff">  Contribs  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0;">  Hurricane   <span style="border:1px solid #eb0; border-left:0; border-top-right-radius:1ex; border-bottom-right-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomright:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topright:1ex; background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #444), color-stop(65%, #000)); color:#eb0"> 04:30,12/5/2011

Now Alenga Allanjeffs 12:28, December 5, 2011 (UTC)

95P.INVEST (01F)
Already called Tropical Disturbance 01F. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  00:39, November 14, 2011 (UTC)

Yay! Our first SHEM disturbance! I expect it to become "Tropical Depression 01F" soon. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 15:42, November 14, 2011 (UTC)

Medium chance. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  20:45, November 14, 2011 (UTC)

No changes in organization. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:24, November 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">There's still a lot of shear in the SHem now; the season has barely begun. We could see a named storm of two in the rest of November or December, but by January/February, the Shem really starts to heat up. I think we will have a more active SHem season this year than last year, but I don't know where most of the activity will be. The SWIO could use an extra storm or two in this year's upcoming season. Ryan1000 01:56, November 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Long gone. Cyclone10 Contributions  00:54, November 27, 2011 (UTC)