Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

Pre-Season - May
It's 2017 now, so I thought I'd add this section just in case we get another Alex-type storm. ~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits      Happy New Year 2017!    19:51, January 1, 2017 (UTC)

March AOI: East of Bahamas
Models form a subtropical-like low in a few days east of the Bahamas. Eric Blake of NHC himself has noted the possibility of development on Twitter: "Looks like a little something to watch in the SW Atlantic next week- and I'm the lucky operational guy 😳🙄 no delusions of grandeur please! " I hope we can get an extremely rare March Arlene! -Bob FORM ARLENE FORM!
 * I was hoping for another storm like this! Would this be the first time that two consecutive seasons had a storm form before May 1? T  G  2 0 1 7 19:57, March 24, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
We have Invest 90L! Highly doubt it will become Arlene but we have another March invest (we had one in 2011 as well). NHC has not issued a STWO yet, but maybe they will tomorrow if 90L can organize a bit overnight! ~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits    00:22, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't give up on this storm so quickly. All major models are showing this system becoming a named storm tomorrow, making this storm a very good candidate for our first named storm. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:58, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * The winds of this invest are already up to 40 mph, and this system is starting to look much more organized than it was last night. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:31, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still no STWO, and the system has not become any better organized. Looks like Arlene will have to wait, unfortunately, let's hope it's not too long.  ~ Bobnekaro  • Page • Wall •  Edits    20:32, March 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * I still think this has a potential of becoming Arlene, and the NHC is still being lazy. (Remember Lisa's TCR came out 20 days prior to the update of their page last year). T  G  2 0 1 7 21:07, March 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like nothing happened, RIP Invest 90L...March 2?-March 2?, 2017. NoJO (talk) 00:27, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

91L. INVEST
So a little swirl in the central Atlantic was designated Invest 91L by the NHC today. It has a 30% chance of developing into a subtropical storm in 48 hours and has winds about 50 mph. Come on, Arlene! Hard to believe we have 2 invests and it's not even May yet, I think 2011 had the same thing. ~ Bobnekaro • Page • Wall •  Edits    19:25, April 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * This has a better shot to be Arlene than 90L did, IMO. T  G  2 0 1 7 19:58, April 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Latest special TWO gives 50/50. Unfortunately it only has less than 24 hours before it gets absorbed by another extratropical cyclone. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:55, April 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * This won't be the last TWO, and I still don't think Invest 91L is done yet. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:16, April 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's actually looking not bad on satellite imagery right now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:06, April 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * And now it's 70/70! Here comes Arlene! ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:24, April 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Woah, didn't expect that! Looks like we'll be seeing our third consecutive year with pre-season storms if this becomes Arlene later today, that'd be impressive. Ryan1000 14:21, April 19, 2017 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression One
And we have our first (sub)tropical depression of the year! Unfortunately, it's not expected to become Arlene. Hopefully it does though, as it's not affecting land. Ryan1000 15:53, April 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene is likely coming at 5PM. 1-0-0. :D AL, 01, 2017042018,, BEST, 0, 373N, 407W, 40, 993, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1010, 400, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ARLENE, M,  ~ Bobnekaro  • Page • Wall •  Edits    19:25, April 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Arlene
She did it, 40 kt/993 mbar. Strongest storm in April by pressure already. T G  2 0 1 7 20:33, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * "I have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting career." Discussion quotes off to a great start already.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:16, April 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well then. I didn't expect this. Got home about 20 minutes ago, turned on The Weather Channel to see what the weather would be like the rest of the weekend, and then they cut in to announce Arlene's formation. So for the 3rd year in a row, hurricane season has started early. However, Arlene's not going to last long. It's going to be absorbed by an upper level low.  Leeboy100 Hello! 21:20, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * After a bit of checking in the best track, the only other time the Atlantic has produced a pre-season storm for 3 or more consecutive years was from 1951-54. Regardless, Arlene shouldn't last much longer; it should die out sometime tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:52, April 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Before Arlene dissipates, I'd at least like to see it strengthen slightly more. At most, Arlene might go to 60 mph, but that's shooting pretty high for a storm this far north in April. 50 mph might be all Arlene strengthens to. T  G  2 0 1 7 23:20, April 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Avila mention that she was probably 50mph a while ago so she will probably be up in post analysis. her formation was pretty remarkable after not being classified yesterday I didnt thought she was going to be upgrade. I am happy she shoot expectations. 181.210.62.178 01:12, April 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well well, looks like we have the first TS since April 2003, 14 years ago, when Ana formed. What a surprise to me (although it's not a shock). Arlene will soon dissipate, sadly. But I'm so happy that I'm not out on this. :)  70.190.5.175  01:46, April 21, 2017 (UTC)