User blog comment:Ryan1000/Invest 97L (Irene)/@comment-2239664-20110821045749

As I said earlier, it's moving pretty fast, at 22 mph, so if it doesn't make that nudge to the north soon enough it could miss Hispaniola to the south and bomb Cuba and Florida. That's the worst we could see out of Irene. However, given the fact it's moving more than 20 mph the shear won't be able to get a hold of this thing. If this thing stays weak enough, it will miss Hispaniola to the south and the Cuba/Florida scenario is more likely. If it takes off right now, Haiti will have a (very unpleasant) Monday or Tuesday evening. Keep your eyes out for it.