Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

99S.INVEST
Inside the Mozambique Channel.-- Cyclone10 00:05, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

This storm looks like it could cause some serious flooding, but i'm not expecting signifigant development of this system. Possibly it could become a minimal cyclone, but that's probrably it. I would be a bit surprised if we don't get Chanda at all though. BTW, we forgot to add the damage total section in the betting pools; I just put that in now. Ryan1000 00:12, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

It looks better on satellite now.-- Cyclone10 02:38, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

TCFA alert!-- Cy10 21:16, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Chanda... Ryan1000 01:03, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Not yet...-- Cy10 03:55, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Still not yet...-- Cy10 19:13, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

It probably be upgrade at any moment Allanjeffs 21:49, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 05S
On Wikipedia, it says this is a zone of disturbed weather, but I'm not sure if that counts as a tropical cyclone. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:44, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Now it has been designated Tropical Cyclone 05S by the JTWC. And no, we don't have Chanda quite yet. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:48, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

It's so close to becoming Chanda though... As I said earlier, it will probrably intensify into a category 1 storm or so before making landfall in Madagascar's southwest coast. The current forecast only takes it to a tropical storm, but given the way it looks, i'd be surprised if it doesn't become a minimal cyclone. Ryan1000 23:53, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

You mean a moderate tropical storm?-- Cy10 00:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Well, yeah, but anyhow, I still think Chanda will become a C1 cyclone in the future. And we can leave it as Tropical Cyclone 05S in the storms header, there's no need to put in so many words. Wunderground has it as 05S, JTWC has it as 05S, we should too. Ryan1000 01:01, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t think it will be much maybe a moderate to severe tropical storm Allanjeffs 02:03, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda
Named and at 35kts 10-min. Yqt1001 15:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

It won't get strong before its Madagascar landfall according to the official forecast (unless it pulls a Lorenzo or Humberto and becomes a tropical cyclone). Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  15:29, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

I knew it was not going to be much just a rainmaker Allanjeffs 19:48, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

...and there goes the last advisory by JTWC..-- Cy10 23:09, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Made landfall and should dissipate soon. I don't expect to see much damage other than rainfall. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:48, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Chanda
Is it a fail?-- Cy10 03:04, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

At least it form Allanjeffs 12:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

I was expecting worse... I guess I stand corrected. Ryan1000 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Chanda
And gone...-- Cy10 21:04, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Nope... its still here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 06R
New disturbance here - not gonna become a depression. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

But it's going to last for a long time.-- Cy10 22:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

And it looks subtropical.-- Cy10 02:40, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression 06R
I stand corrected.-- Cy10 13:13, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Still there....-- Cy10 18:06, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

We should see this becoming a significant tropical system by the time this makes landfall. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:33, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

Low chance.-- Cy10 01:15, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

I personally believe this could be Moderate Tropical Storm Dando in a couple days. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:50, January 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * I would like to take that a little further and bring it to Severe TS status. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:58, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 06R
OR it doesn't develop at all!-- Cy10 18:32, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

You WILL find that it redevelops. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:58, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe time will tell Allanjeffs 19:42, January 14, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression 06R (again)
Redeveloped better than ever, now a 40mph STD in 10-min winds. Expected to make the transition to tropical just before landfall. Yqt1001 15:43, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

What did I tell ya? Its Kiewii btw. 90.216.177.93 15:48, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

But it might not make it for the transition.-- Cy10 16:09, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Dando
Got named, not expected to become tropical anymore. Yqt1001 18:35, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

At least it was name its better than nothing Allanjeffs 22:01, January 15, 2012 (UTC)

I knew it would get named! And also, we now have more named storms than last year. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  00:05, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah that is incredible we may have an active season after allAllanjeffs 00:58, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not that surprised, last year's SWIO season was like a 1914 AHS, the least active year ever, or in a very long time. This time(or year) though, the SPac's been a bit behind schedule. Ryan1000 15:51, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

Dando has made landfall.-- Cy10 19:35, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

Then it should be gone soon. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  21:53, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

Should probable be out at any momentAllanjeffs 05:01, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

No longer an invest.-- Cy10 05:36, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Dando
Gone.-- Cy10 05:37, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

I knew he will be out at any momentAllanjeffs 12:46, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: South of the Chagos
We have really got to keep an eye on this one - forecast to intensify into a TC or ITC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:24, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

I can't wait to get our "E" storm! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  21:56, January 16, 2012 (UTC)

We are really moving fast this year with name storms Allanjeffs 00:17, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

94S.INVEST
Now a invest.-- Cy10 02:11, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

Anyone more think Ethel is coming?Allanjeffs 03:12, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

Yup.-- Cy10 03:43, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather 07
We are going to see some rapid strengthening. This should become a STS in about two days time. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:29, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Here we go again! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  13:17, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07
Yup... its coming. But I would rather watch the one in the Mozambique Channel, since this one isn't going to effect land (maybe Antarctica?). &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:29, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Kiewii, how would a storm affect Antarctica (You misspelled "affect" in your previous post FYI)? Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:52, January 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't care about how I spell. You'll find that a storm affects Antarctica everyday. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:54, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07
Strengthening rapidly. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:17, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Can't wait to see Ethel. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  02:14, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

This thing looks rather nice. It already looks like a hurricane-strength storm based on the sattelite imagery. I'd be surprised if we don't see at least our first SWIO major from this. At least it will be a fishspinner(for the most part), unless it comes close enough to Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 03:34, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 07S
JTWC update out. Very good chance of RI sometime in the next 2 days, 85kts peak if it doesn't RI, but RI appears to be inevitable at this point. Yqt1001 03:37, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

I'd be baffled if this one doesn't explode. It's in prime conditions for explosive development and the small circulation will only reinforce intensification. I'd place the peak of this one as a category 4 storm, with an outside chance at cat. 5. Ryan1000 03:59, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like this would become Ethel and has everything in its favor to explode like Edzani did right know this Ocean is becoming very active i would not be very surprise if Giovanna forms next week at the pace we are going right knowAllanjeffs 04:05, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel
Expected to strengthen into a TC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 07:52, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Anytime now, Ethel... You're in ripe conditions for explosive strengthening, why aren't you doing it? Ryan1000 18:33, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Ethel
Maybe you were a little too early Ryan? &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:44, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ethel's core isn't in a position where it can easily RI as of the last MW image a while ago. Might be now though (likely is). Yqt1001 20:17, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now it looks more impressive, but Ethel doesn't have much time before she's going to be running into colder waters and stronger shear. She better get on with it. Ryan1000 00:14, January 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ethel is now a hurricane in our scale right? if she wants to start strengthening like Funso it better start nowAllanjeffs 02:31, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * not more forecast to become a major noe I expect one of this Allanjeffs 11:50, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

One person killed from this storm (most likely in the Rodrigues). 90.216.177.93 12:39, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

Ethel won't be with us for long...she should be extratropical in about three days' time. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  12:59, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ethel is falling out of place, it was an 85mph (1-min) cyclone, but now it doesn't show any signs of being that strong. Yqt1001 13:21, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Wasn't as strong as it could've been, but it still didn't affect land altogether. Ryan1000 17:25, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think this is a minimal storm.Allanjeffs 00:44, January 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's starting to become extratropical.-- Cy10 -- 05:45, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

It should peak at 950 mb extratropical. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:29, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (2nd time)
Weakened to an MTS just as its becomes extratropical. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:09, January 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Last advisory by JTWC.-- Cy10 -- 17:27, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * It was interesting to track this storm that was forecast to become a formidable cyclone because of favorable conditions and only reach cat 1.Allanjeffs 19:01, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

Extratropical Cyclone Ethel
Now gone.-- Cy10 -- 21:10, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * And as always, I will be tracking the extratropical cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:24, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

95S.INVEST
Another one.. this time in the Mozambique Channel. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:14, January 17, 2012 (UTC)

This is really taking its time developing Allanjeffs 20:26, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I don't expect to see very much out of this disturbance. It may become our next system, but it won't be very strong if it does so. Ryan1000 23:38, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Excuse me? GFS getting this down to 960 mb. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:47, January 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * I've never seen the GFS so happy about a system before. Yqt1001 23:54, January 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 08
Its coming... expected to become a TC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:20, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Man...these disturbances are coming in fast. We could be looking at our "E" and "F" storms soon. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  02:14, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Oh God by my part I have never seen so active this ocean before Looks like Funso is coming nearly at the same time that Ethel and the two look like they are going to become something big Allanjeffs 04:02, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The activity seems to be picking up, but 07R should (hopefully) spin only fish and this storm, as I said above, probrably won't be as fierce as 07R(Ethel) will be. There is a chance we could see a cat 1 or 2 from this, which could be a problem for Madagascar or Mozambique, but i'd put the chances of this thing passing category 3 strength at around 0%. It's much less organized than 07R and the conditions aren't prime for this one to bomb out. It will intensify to some degree though, and this storm certainly bears watching, especially since, unlike 07R, it will be a threat to land. Ryan1000 04:29, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08
Expected to strengthen into an ITC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 07:53, January 19, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Funso
Heating up....-- Cy10 13:08, January 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * As I said, it likely won't get super strong. Funso is only forecast to peak at 85 mph before making landfall in Mozambique, but because Mozambique has a very fragile economy and is very vulnerable to flooding and mudslides, it really doesn't matter. This storm could still be a problem for them. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 15:10, January 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Maybe but there is always a small possibillity that is could strength more than expect it we have see examples of it Allanjeffs 18:00, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * It will more than likely become a category 1 cyclone, and I'd place the peak strength of this one at about 100-110 mph, with an outside chance at cat. 3, but I highly doubt Funso will become a strong cat 3, cat 4 or cat 5. Ethel hasn't strengthened as fast as I thought she would... But as I said, Mozambique isn't the best place for a landfalling tropical cyclone anyways, so it really doesn't matter how strong Funso gets, it will cause signifigant flooding and mudslides no matter what happens. This unfortunately could be a pretty deadly storm for the folks over there. Ryan1000 18:14, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Funso is now doing something (whether it be EI or RI, I'm uncertain). 4 hours ago, 3 hours ago (when I claim the RI/EI started) and finally, right now. Yqt1001 21:22, January 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * I knew Funso would strength rapidly it even look better than Ethel that was supposedly to be a cat 2 by now but we will see if Funso can continue strengthening I say peak at cat 3 or 4 Allanjeffs 23:03, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not a fan of deadly or destructive storms...let's hope this one doesn't cause too much trouble. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:45, January 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hm. Looks like Funso will become much stronger now, possibly to category 2-4, but the good news is Funso is now forecast to go straight down the Mozambique Channel in between Madagascar and Mozambique and not signifigantly affect land. It was expected to stay weak and make landfall, but now it looks like Funso will stay strong and miss most land. Win-Win scenario here! Ryan1000 00:12, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Funso
Deepened significantly, now 5 mb away from beating Benilde. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 00:50, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

WHOA!!! I did NOT see this coming! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:41, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

Knew it that this system was potentially a major and ryan there is still a possibility that Funso actually makes landfall even if it didn`t it already have leave a lot of rain in those areas Allanjeffs 02:27, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Woah, this thing's taking off pretty fast. Now forecast to hit 135 mph. And Allan, hopefully Funso will turn southeast before it does make landfall in Mozambique, because this thing will be god knows how bad if it hits them as a category 3 cyclone. It is small, so it won't be very widespread, but it still will be bad if it hits them. It could make a straightforward inland landfall like Cyclone Japhet in 2003, or it could only clip Mozambique like Cyclone Jokwe in 2008. Either way, we want the best case scenario out of this one. The only thing that surprised me is that Funso is jumping ahead of Ethel intensity-wise. I was expecting Ethel to be a major by now, but now it looks like Funso could do that first, or instead. Ryan1000 04:39, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I am really hoping for the best case scenario if not there could be deaths and i don`t like that Allanjeffs 11:49, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">On the SSHS, Funso is a C1. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  12:57, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">And expected to become a VITC.-- Cy10 13:12, January 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Funso was close to MH status briefly last night. It had a clearing pinhole eye, and some very deep convection fully surrounding it. Now, it is a shadow of its former self..they eye filled in and the convection somewhat disorganized. I'm assuming that land is the culprit. Also I want to proudly say that my RI probability script correctly predicted that Funso would RI 18 hours in advance, and it gave Funso a higher percentage than Ethel. Yqt1001 13:18, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

And another 15 people dead. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:49, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

This thing has already killed more people than every other storm combined this year!!! :O Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  16:55, January 20, 2012 (UTC)

Funso has weakened down to 65 kts, but still expected to become a VITC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:55, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * It went through an EWRC last night, but has started strengthening again. Meteo France showing a disaster for Mozambique (category 5 strength at landfall).... Yqt1001 21:16, January 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I thought it was a landfall near SouthAfrica i knew all along that Funso was not a game it better not strength at that intensity or it is going to be hell for them Allanjeffs 22:36, January 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I just notice something that if Funso becomes a cat 5 like it is predict i will win for the strongest name storm in the south-west indian ocean but i don`t really want to win if there is going to be disaster in the area i really feel sorry for them Allanjeffs 23:15, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Funso is a pretty agressive cyclone right now, but the problem with this one IMO isn't how strong it gets, it's where it goes. This storm was forecast to move away from the coastilne, but instead of doing that, Funso is instead slowly staggering towards the Mozambique coastline(WSW at 4 mph) instead of turning away. Being a 105 mph storm, it's going to be severe either way, but now it's peak is expected to be cat. 3 instead of cat. 4. It doesn't really make a difference considering where it's going to make landfall, but the bad news is it doesn't want to turn away, and it was originally forecast to. The worst of the storm could strike Mozambique tomorrow instead of Sunday or Monday because of that. Ryan1000 23:30, January 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * JTWC and Meteo France are very different for Funso. JTWC has Funso stalled until tomorrow, and slowly speeds it up to the south, spins it up to category 3 strength and then crashes it into land on Monday as a category 2. Meteo France, however, has Funso moving slowly out to sea, getting up to a category 5 strength monster before making landfall in a week. I would trust Meteo France in this case more, as they probably know more about SWIO storms than the JTWC, and let's be honest, JTWC has a horrible track record for everything SHem. We'll see who is right though! Yqt1001 00:21, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Neither could be right for all we know, the greatest thing we can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. I mean, if Funso continues on that slow westward direction until, say noon tomorrow, it will already be making landfall in Mozambique, and if it stays this strong by then, this could be a very severe storm for the folks around Quelimane or Marromeu. However, I would want to see Mozambique swallow this pill right now rather than leave this thing over open waters and hit southern Mozambique around Maputo(Mozambique's capital) as a monster category 2 or 3. It would still be bad if it hits them by today at noon (assuming it continues its WSW direction), but if it misses land and heads south to hit somewhere near Maputo as a category 2 or 3, it could even be deadlier than Eline in 2000, which killed as many as 1,000 people in Mozambique from catastrophic flooding. This storm is starting to get really scary, but if it makes landfall now, it would be much better than if it were to make landfall later(although it would still be bad). Ryan1000 00:40, January 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Either of the two options are bad but like you say Ryan is preferable option 1 even though is still bad the best option is that Funso start weakening.Allanjeffs 03:28, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * I was going to ask if name in this basin were retire but i read that a new annual list is use every year Allanjeffs 03:30, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Funso is back! It has moved away from land, allowing it to strengthen rather quickly. It looks like it might be a major hurricane for the next update. Yqt1001 04:21, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Probable high-end cat 2 or major hurricane Funso is really becoming dangerous I think it has already kill 15 people.Allanjeffs 04:52, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Funso is absolutely beautiful right now. It is really, a perfect looking cyclone. Yqt1001 05:52, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso
Still strengthening, but no longer expected to become a VITC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:29, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This thing is trying it's hardest to take option 1 that I said above... It's still moving NW, but only at 1 mile an hour. It may stall out here if it can't reach the coastline, but the folks in Mozambique are currently feeling Funso's outer rainbands to rough thunderstorms and wave action right now, though the strongest part of the storm is yet to come. And yes Allan, a new naming list is drawn up every year here, like with the NIO(though they're much less active), so Funso can't be "retired", but it won't be used again here anyways. The only way SWIO or NIO names can be used more than once is if it was used elsewhere worldwide, like Cyclone Ivan(SWIO) and Nisha(NIO) in 2008. Ryan1000 09:58, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It has start weakening again.Allanjeffs 14:23, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">That's great it's weakening! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  14:26, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Funso could make a landfall in Mozambique later today if it keeps up that northwest track, but it's better for this beast to make landfall now than make landfall as a monster later. The fact it's moving at only 1 mph means Funso will be dropping awfully heavy rains on Mozambique's coastline, so some bad effects are already being felt from this cyclone for the folks down there. Ryan1000 14:36, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Funso has definitely weakened back to a TC because of land interaction and probably colder SSTs because he hasn't moved much in the last 24 hours. He was supposed to move out to sea starting last night, but he isn't doing that. Yqt1001 15:58, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * This storm is really trying hard to make landfall in Mozambique. Per the latest sattelite imagery, Funso is just about to move ashore; it probrably will in the next 6-12 hours at this rate. I think he will be downgraded to a category 2 or 1 soon, but it's a better outcome than what it could have been. Ryan1000 17:21, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa, Funso lost itself rescently. It's still nearing Mozambique, but it's powering down as it ever so slowly approaches the coastline. I don't know if Funso is even going to last long into Monday if this keeps up. It's starting to fall apart. Ryan1000 20:02, January 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aaaand it's finally moving southeast. This isn't good. Mozambique already took a beating from Funso's outer rainbands and now this storm could move out to sea and be much worse when it actually makes landfall. Ryan1000 23:20, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Funso (2nd time)
Back down again... but still a chance of some restrengthening. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:31, January 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * If it doesn't make landfall.-- Cy10 23:56, January 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Probably will strength now that is moving away from the coast.Allanjeffs 00:46, January 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * First paragraph of the Meteo France discussion: "Funso is going slowly away from the coast eastward and the interaction of the system with the land is lessening. Convection is restructuring above the center with a small central dense overcast and a small curved band that is wrapping all around the center. " Here goes the RI again. Yqt1001 01:13, January 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * This storm do RI,then weakens then RI again and then start weakening again and then starting RI again this storm is a rollercoaster no other word could describe what Funso is doing and now that is moving away from land there is almost nothing that will stop this cyclone from strengthening.Allanjeffs 02:21, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * It won't be good when it comes ashore again. This storm may be heading out to sea now, but later it will turn back to hit southern Mozambique or even South Africa as a very formidable storm. Interaction with land weakened this storm a bit, but it will make a nasty comeback in the next week, and the worst is yet to come. There is still a chance it could remain at sea, but that's not something that can be guranteed as of now. Ryan1000 02:26, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * The main areas for landfall are Mozambique the most probable and the other one less probable is Madagascar i know it sounds bad but I think that Madagascar is more prepair for a landfall than Mozambique even though I really would want Funso to remain at sea and just to be a scare for us.Allanjeffs 03:26, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * There's no gurantee that this storm will make landfall yet, but it can't be ruled out either. I have a feeling it could approach Mozambique again and turn out to sea before making landfall like it's doing now. I don't know what happened along the coastline earlier today as Funso's outer rainbands battered Mozambique, but hopefully the effects weren't too serious. Ryan1000 03:48, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * The southern area of Mozambique hasn't seen anything (other than Dando) since Domoina in 1984. They should be prepared if this hits them. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  13:38, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * At least now its not forecast to make landfall in Mozambique Allanjeffs 19:03, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Funso again forecast to make landfall on southern Mozambique he already have kill people and if the landfall occured i am very sad to say it but the death toll is going to increase.Allanjeffs 12:48, January 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * No he isn't - the official forecast shows it will stay well away from Mozambique. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:51, January 23, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (2nd time)
Restrengthened again! Not gonna affect land. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:24, January 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Funso is amazing right now. Dvorak says category 4, but I think it could be a category 5 soon. It has the classic pinhole eye look. :) Yqt1001 20:03, January 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now that is not forecast to make landfall it should be beautiful and amazing to have this storm becoming our first cat 5 in the yearAllanjeffs 20:34, January 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Latest JTWC update out. 115kts, expected to reach the 140kts milestone in 24 hours! Still not expected to hit land. Yqt1001 21:17, January 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looks like we got the best scenario out of this one. It could have made landfall up to twice in it's lifetime, but now it's going seaward. There is a chance it could become a category 5 cyclone, which would be the first SWIO cat 5 since 2010's Edzani and the only category 5 cyclone ever recorded in the Mozambique Channel. This thing looks pretty, but it's still lashing away at Mozambique and Madagascar with it's outer rainbands. Other than causing stormy weather for the folks there for over a week or so, Funso didn't cause too much trouble. It could have been much worse. Ryan1000 21:54, January 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah until now it appear the best case scenario will happen with these storm even though it has already killed some folks in there.Allanjeffs 01:17, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

Funso is still strengthening. Dvorak suggesting that Funso is at 130kts, and Madagascar just updated Funso at 110kts (10-min). Looks like we nearly have a confirmed VITC in our hands. It's pretty amazing right now, long time since we've had a storm like this! Yqt1001 02:52, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

I really want to see this become a VITC (unless it's forecast to hit land, of course)!!! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  03:10, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It's no longer forecast to reach C5, but it's very likely it will reach strong C4(150-155 mph). Either way, it should be moving slowly out to sea and dying away in about 3 or 4 days. Ryan1000 17:19, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Funso (3rd time)
And down again.-- Cy10 -- 13:18, January 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * For less than one advisory likely, it just went through an EWRC, it already is at 140mph according to the JTWC. Not a category 2 hurricane in my mind. Yqt1001 13:26, January 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * It might be time to start saying goodbye to Funso; it's eye is starting to expand now that it's heading southwards into colder waters and stable air. From here on out, it should slowly die away. Ryan1000 21:45, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (3rd time)
And up again.-- Cy10 -- 23:52, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Funso (4th time)
And back down again. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:04, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

This thing keeps crossing between the TC/ITC boundary! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions   02:35, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low 07U
New one here - cyclone watch issued for WA. Of course that means 07U has the possibility of becoming Heidi. Some good news for the guys in WA - the GFS previously had this making landfall as a C3 (ozzie), but now only a C1 (ozzie). &mdash;13R.KIEWII 11:45, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Heidi
Now a TC. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 17:54, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Not sure what to expect from this other than some rainfall in northern Australia. Ryan1000 18:37, January 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Does anyone else see anything wrong with how the forecast calls for Heidi to remain a TS strength cyclone hundreds of miles inland..over desert..? Unless it explodes to a huge storm I don't see how it will even last that far inland. Yqt1001 20:21, January 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Maybe it would i don`t remember which was but it really stay as a cyclone and i think she will be stronger than a cat 1 cyclone Allanjeffs 20:24, January 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yqt, remember that some Austrailian cyclones last for a really long time inland.-- Cy10 21:03, January 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now expected to become a C2 cyclone. -- Cy10 03:10, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now a Cat 2. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 07:13, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

I knew this was going to be stronger than anticipated it Allanjeffs 12:46, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

It won't get stronger before landfall. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  13:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes Cyclone10, they last long overland because of their size, but Heidi is very tiny. Yqt1001 13:23, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * @Yqt:Australia may be the world's driest continent, but as dry as they are, they also see rainfall in their rainy season which is heavy enough to sometimes cause floods. There may not be as much water on land as there is out at sea, but the water on the ground during floods or heavy rainfall can be used as a partial fuel for tropical storms, even though it isn't as much as out to sea, it can keep them alive for some time inland. Some storms in the Australian region even form over land. Their proxmitity to high SST's offshore can also have an impact on their intensity just inland or just offshore. Though I personally don't think Heidi will last that long inland, it could emerge off of Australia again. Ryan1000 21:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Last advisory by JTWC since it made landfall.-- Cy10 21:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Made landfall with 10-min winds of 70mph. JTWC said 1-min of 50mph? Anyways, interesting fact Ryan. Yqt1001 22:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * The Australian scale uses strongest km/hr gusts, but that's still rather odd... Ryan1000 23:45, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now down to C1.-- Cy10 02:18, January 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * As said earlier, Heidi's not done with us yet. If you look at the sattelite imagery, she's actually staying intact rather nicely over land. There is a possibility it could emerge off of Australia again, but hopefully flooding won't be that bad, if any. Ryan1000 14:59, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low Heidi
Down to a tropical low, but as Ryan said, this storm is staying intact over land. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:03, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

It looks like we are going to be seeing another Tropical Low forming just about where Heidi formed, and will move west into the SWIO. It was first mentioned in the TWO at 4AM. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:23, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

So if it develop in a cyclone would be Iggy right? weird name Allanjeffs 01:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">If it's still in the Australian region, it will keep it's original name, so it would be renamed Heidi. I believe it would reccieve a different name if it crosses into the SWIO basin however, like Lee-Ariel in 2007. Ryan1000 02:04, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">That is correct. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  02:43, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Thanks but I was talking of the tropical low that 12R.KIWII was talking about Allanjeffs 03:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ryan, that rule was changed in 2008 (I think) so that storms only receive one name. I don't think that a situation where a storm gets two formal names can ever happen again. Yqt1001 03:56, January 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * Its not gonna develop into a cyclone in the next three days, but by looking at models, it could develop into a TC or ITC in the next week. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 10:29, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Heidi
Gone.-- Cy10 17:33, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

The tropical low (previously discussed above) has formed (not mentioned by BoM) near 15S 105E. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 17:37, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">@Yqt:I'm not sure if that rule still exists today or not for AUS/SWIO crossovers, but if it does, the only way we can tell for sure is if a storm crosses from AUS to SWIO this year... Anyhow, Heidi could regenerate off of Australia, though that's not likely. Ryan1000 17:59, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Northwest Gulf of Caprentaria
Medium chance. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:56, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">As of now, it doesn't look too impressive. Australia has been unusually dry this year. After they saw record flooding in last year's tropical cyclone season, we could be looking at one of their driest tropical cyclone seasons in history. The lack of activity in the Australian region isn't surprising, but the lack of South Pacific activity is. This year could closely resemble 2009 for SHem, except SWIO will be more active, and I don't know if Australia will see a Laurence-like storm this year. Ryan1000 14:42, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

98S.INVEST
This should make landfall. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 10:27, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

TCFA alert.-- Cy10 -- 02:53, January 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Lol you keep on saying Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert alert :P It has made landfall. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:28, January 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't care, Kiewii. 98S still have some time to form.-- Cy10 -- 13:15, January 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Stop acting like that just because I said Katia wasn't a great storm. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:27, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

97S.INVEST
New one here south of Jakarta. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:48, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

BoM saying this will become Cyclone Iggy. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 10:59, January 22, 2012 (UTC)

This looks like a potent storm should be Iggy in the next few daysAllanjeffs 20:34, January 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Nope, the BoM have it peaking at 35 mph now. Wont have long to become a cat 1 anyway since it should make landfall where Heidi did. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:45, January 23, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low 11U
We are gonna see Iggy. Should peak at Cat 3 strength. TCFA issued too. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:32, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Iggy
Iggy forms expect to become a cat 3 cyclone.Allanjeffs 20:28, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It's expected to curve away from Australia before making landfall. We shouldn't see much out of this in terms of impacts. Ryan1000 21:13, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 03F
Here it is.-- Cy10 23:17, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

This storm is already the strongest storm of the 2011-12 SPAC cyclone season. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:26, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 03F
Gone. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F
No THIS is the strongest storm of the season so far. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

...by 1 mbar..-- Cy10 00:42, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Wow! The SPAC has just blown up! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:41, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 04F
Done now. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:44, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Big fail.-- Cy10 00:00, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah i can`t argue with this one btw this are depressions? or just like low medium high the types of classifications we use in the Atlantic?Allanjeffs 04:50, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 05F
New one here. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Each disturbance surpassing the other by a couple of millibar when is the good action start on this season?Allanjeffs 01:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

04F and 05F are now tying for the strongest storm of the season. But remember.. this is only January. We still have a lot more storms to come. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 10:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yeah, February is the peak of the SHem season, and their March is like our October, so that bears watching too. Right now, this is the equivalent of the SHem's August. They're just getting warmed up. Ryan1000 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Does this disturbance even exist now ? Allanjeffs 03:49, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 05F
Gone.-- Cy10 03:51, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 06F
New one here.-- Cy10 03:19, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

What is the probability of this becoming a tropical cyclone low,medium,or high?Allanjeffs 04:54, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It's only low to moderate for now. It's not expected to become much. For future reference Allan, go here. If you want to go more specific, click on "Warnings, advisories, and other disturbance information". You can see a list of all of the TC forecasting centers if you scroll down on WUndergrounds tropical weather page. Ryan1000 09:51, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 06F
Now a depression. Has anyone noticed a pattern? We've had a TDi, TD, TDi, TD, TDi, TD. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:33, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

Until now that you show it I see but could this be our first name in this basin we will see.Allanjeffs 00:49, January 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Probably not, Allan. The probability is getting smaller.-- Cy10 -- 05:48, January 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Does this system is even alive?Allanjeffs 23:31, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 06F
Gone :/ &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:39, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

99P.INVEST
Lets keep an eye on this system... &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:39, January 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The SPac has been a wasteland for most of this season; all I can see on the sattelite imagery is a strong band of wind shear streching across most of the basin. The SWIO is doing fine and Australia isn't half-bad, but at this rate, we could see a repeat of 2008-09 for the SPac, with a really late start and hardly any storms. This invest could could change that, though if that shear doesn't abate, then it will die out as well. Ryan1000 01:32, January 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07F
Come on... you can do this... &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:01, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

The weird TDi/TD pattern continues... I hope this breaks the trend. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions   02:37, January 26, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: -- Cy10 01:54, January 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?
 * Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts.

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?
 * 3) Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad.
 * 4) Iggy - TBA - Still Active

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)

Time for mine.


 * 1) Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail
 * 2) Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season
 * 3) Heidi: 5% - Meh

&mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:34, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

My turn


 * 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ?


 * 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going


 * 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him
 * Allanjeffs 00:50, January 22, 2012 (UTC)