Forum:2006 Atlantic hurricane season/January

January
Will there be an offseason? With Zeta active as we speak, could Alberto really be a mid-winter surprise? CrazyC83 16:40, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
 * Zeta?What do you mean by Zeta? I took the bloody 2005 page out of my watchlist a week ago, thinking the season's finally over and now you're telling me I have to get it back on the list? *dies*Dunemaire 16:53, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
 * See for yourself on the 2005 season page! It's truly a historic day!!! CrazyC83 17:01, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
 * It's truely a historic season... -- Hurricane Eric - my dropsonde - archive 22:38, 30 December 2005 (UTC)
 * I saw it. Oh well, it's still 2005... Dunemaire 17:30, 30 December 2005 (UTC)

A Greek Crossover
Yup, Zeta made it into 2006 (UTC time). -- RattleMan 00:05, 1 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Unless it dissipates by the next advisory, it will also be a local-time crossover. Alice, you have company!!! CrazyC83 00:14, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

IT'S OFFICIAL!!! Zeta has made it to "celebrate" the new year! Move over, Alice! ;) CrazyC83 03:25, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE! We're starting this season early with the continuing breath of Zeta. Question is, can any more "cold hurricanes" like Epsilon or Zeta form in the winter? Will this be a continuing trend as we enter this "cycle" of intense tropical weather? Will another European or African storm like Vince and Delta appear? Will Wilma be beaten as strongest storm? Will Kirk become a major storm and create stupid "star trek" puns in the newrooms for weeks? All this and more on the next season of "ATLANTIC HURRICANES"! .... SargeAbernathy 06:28, 1 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Of course, now that I look at it ... if Alberto does show up in January ... I'd rather call this the 2005-2006 season. SargeAbernathy 06:30, 1 January 2006 (UTC)


 * "Another European or African storm like Vince and Delata," eh? What about a European or African swallow, mate?  --DavidK93 14:15, 1 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Aside from Zeta, there's like...nothing out there. I bet Alberto won't form untill much later...and then he beats up Audrey. I like found this out...an hour ago. Bloing  19:14, 1 January 2006 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Zeta (con't)
11 PM Discussion: THIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST OF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN DISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH ALIVE AT THIS TIME.

Uh oh :) -- RattleMan 03:07, 2 January 2006 (UTC)

Oh great... O.o Bloing-|-;D  14:01, 2 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Burst of convection last couple of hours. Looks like it's getting itself ready for the trough about to tear through. --AySz88^ - ^  20:04, 2 January 2006 (UTC)
 * The Navy site currently has Zeta at 50kts and 997mb.--24.83.100.214 01:22, 3 January 2006 (UTC)
 * That seems conservative to me - I'd say Zeta is almost a hurricane right now - 60kts and about 990mb. CrazyC83 01:57, 3 January 2006 (UTC)

Beyond Zeta
Quoted from Jeff Masters at Weather Underground:

''Today's model runs are still forecasting that a non-tropical low pressure system will form off the coast of Africa on Sunday, in a location similar to but farther east of where Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta all formed. This new low could make the transition to a tropical storm early next week. However, the latest model runs have the storm forming closer to the coast of Africa than before, and the cooler water temperatures there will probably keep it from forming into a tropical storm.''

We've seen and heard that before...that's out of the computer models. Is this the eternal hurricane season??? AFAIK, the water temperatures bottom out in early March (correct?). CrazyC83 01:06, 5 January 2006 (UTC)


 * March 10 is the opposite end of the year from September 10. That should be the peak of the 'non-season' - Cuivienen 03:53, 6 January 2006 (UTC)


 * It would be quite funny if a storm was active at the peak of the so-called "off-season"... CrazyC83 17:23, 6 January 2006 (UTC)

Weeks 2 and 3
Take a look in the upper-right corner. Developing low moving southwest near towards where Delta, Epsilon and Zeta formed. Could develop into a tropical storm according to Weather Underground. CrazyC83 20:12, 9 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Gulp. Here comes Alberto... - Cuivienen 01:28, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Oh, Come on. Does anmyone seriously think Alberto's gonna form this month? (Judging by the betting pools, the answer would be yes.) There's too much shear and the ocean temperatures aren't warm enough really to make anymore tropical storms. Sure, that's what we said about Zeta and Epsilon but this time its true. This is an Atlantic Hurricane Season, not a Pacifc Typhoon season. Not every low pressure system from Africa becomes a tropical or subtropical storm. Fableheroesguild 01:37, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
 * We said that before Delta, then before Epsilon, then before Zeta...then again it's not 2005 anymore (sure seems like it though!) CrazyC83 04:29, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
 * That would be my reaction as well. After Vince, Delta, Epsilon and Zeta it's entirely possible. - Blake&#39;s Star 21:54, 10 January 2006 (UTC)
 * I hope it Dosn't. I guessed Jan. 27th for the formation date of Alberto. Enigmar 00:20, 14 January 2006 (UTC)

I see nothing in the upper right, so I'm guessing that pic is out of date. Not to be a killjoy here, but this isn't a chat room about vague storms in the ocean. Really, when we're in the offseason, is there a problem with waiting until the NRL hands out INVESTs and such? Perhaps you want geo-earth.com's forums? Though they would probably tell you the same thing - we don't need a new thread every time there's a cloud in the Atlantic. --Golbez 00:47, 14 January 2006 (UTC)

That's what I was saying!!!Fableheroesguild 20:34, 14 January 2006 (UTC)

Week 4
I think this is a separate system, just south of the Azores and west of the Madiera islands: FSU cyclone phase analysis puts it a little bit into warm core territory, though it also isn't forecast to last very long, which wouldn't let it develop into anything significant. --AySz88^ - ^ 17:50, 21 January 2006 (UTC)


 * It's fizzling out without turning warm-core. --AySz88^ - ^ 17:40, 23 January 2006 (UTC)

AoI:01W4A - NW Caribbean
In the meantime, there is something in the NW Carribean, with what appears to be some counter-clockwise spin. The SSTs are warm enough there to support cyclogenesis, so that is a possibility. Even so, the time of year is catching up on the tropics. Over the last few weeks, the SSTs have relaxed markedly, especially in the east Atlantic where Vince, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta formed. So the "bag of tricks" that I referred to in Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season is getting fairly ragged. We aren't "out of the woods" yet when in comes to tropical storm formation this winter, but the "trees" are thinning out none-the-less. --EMS | Talk 21:37, 23 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Shear analysis: upper-level and mid-level. It's surprisingly low, zero mid-level near that bunch of convection.  I'm not seeing any red circles on the future model predictions, though.  Does anyone know of a place that has forecasts of shear? --AySz88^ - ^  23:35, 23 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Jeff Masters is saying that it probably won't organize into a tropical depression, although the possibility is there. bob rulz 23:57, 23 January 2006 (UTC)


 * I looks to me like a low pressure system has formed in the area, and is centered in Guatemala. What is left over the water does not look like much now, so I also now assume that we will not see a storm out of this (or at least not an Atlanic storm).  We will see.  I noticed that Jeff Masters is also impressed by it.  Another winter tropical cyclone remains possible this year (but far from probable), most likely in the Carribean. --EMS | Talk 03:30, 24 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Yeah, so much for it being an "off-season"...this winter has felt more like an early summer of most seasons! What next, a Category 5 hurricane in April? CrazyC83 23:12, 25 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Or how about something that is VERY unlikey, a Category 5 hurricane stronger than Glibert in Febuary... --24.85.167.241 00:10, 26 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Yes, Crazy. A category 5 will form in April. And it will strike Rand McNally, where they wear hats in their feet and hamburgers eat people. --Golbez 02:52, 26 January 2006 (UTC)
 * Relax, Golbez, Crazy was already being sarcastic. :p :p --AySz88^ - ^ 03:21, 26 January 2006 (UTC)


 * Yeah I was. I know it is unrealistic. CrazyC83 21:43, 26 January 2006 (UTC)