Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
It's not off of the coast yet, but for a wave coming off of Africa, I'd say it has the highest chance of forming so far this year. It has some model support and a low pressure area so far. Conditions also look favourable off the coast. Yqt1001 23:52, July 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not quite. The SAL is still really thick off of Africa´s coast; I would consider this invest developing perhaps when it reaches the lesser antillies, but a Bertha-like storm isn´t in my future for this invest. It cetainly bears watching though, and as the heart of hurricane season continues to approach, more African waves will become threatening storms for the Caribbean Islands, Central America, the U.S, Mexico, Bermuda and Canada. Every invest out there bears watching as of now. August is just around the corner, and by August, not only will more and more people come here, but more and more storms will come off of Africa. Ryan1000 01:03, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The tropics are heating up like it's already August. Maybe a re-2004 could happen at this rate? Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:49, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * August isn't too far away now, but I can see a year like 2008. Anyways this wave isn't expected to develop until it reaches the Caribbean, but I think it's odds of forming are still high in the future. It kinda fell apart once it departed Africa though and met the SAL. Yqt1001 23:47, July 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess the more imminent threat now is 90L, because it looks a lot like Celia did in 1970. This wave could be future Emily though, and it needs to be watched out for, especially when it gets to the Caribbean. Ryan1000 04:33, July 27, 2011 (UTC)

Now up to 20% for the next 2 days. The thing about this one is unlike Don's precursor, this one will have to fight an upper level low dominating the Virgin Islands. It needs to develop now to have a better chance at that shear in the eastern to northern Caribbean 3 or 4 days from now. However, the shear may settle down before it gets there(which I desperately don't want), so Emily could be threatening us much more than Don will. I may even see her as a major threatening the gulf coast 7 days from now. This thing could get bad. Ryan1000 00:13, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * OMG! There is a closed circulation already! All it needs is higher winds and deeper convection and we have TS Emily! Yqt1001 02:48, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested! The model support for this is amazing with nearly every model developing a hurricane out of this. Also up to 30% now. Yqt1001 04:20, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * This wave really scares me, because it has a lot of time to develop and when it does get into the Caribbean, we could see a very powerful hurricane heading for the U.S. gulf coast and Cuba. The AOI north of Panama has less time to develop than this wave, but because it's closer to land, it certainly has to be watched more for the time being. I don't know if this will be Emily or Franklin, but either way, I hope it doesn't develop into a monstorous U.S. storm in the far future. Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * You might or might not be surprised at how many models develop this into a major hurricane. (nearly all) However the models are still doubting on where it will go... Yqt1001 14:36, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * It could end up crossing the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and then end up in the eastern seaboard of the U.S. as a powerful hurricane, but it also isn't out of the question it could rage across the Caribbean and hit the Gulf coast as a powerful major hurricane, but who knows where it could end up... It could be a re-Dennis or re-Emily, or(god forbid) a re-Ivan or Gilbert. Ryan1000 15:26, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 50% now. Yqt1001 23:41, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

Wow... this invest is geting its act together quite fast. And just how it's looking, the fifth tropical depression could be on our way. And very ironically, it appears that Emily is trying to redo her 2005 fame. (But in an EXTREME coincidence, I had predicted the 2011 Emily to take the same track as the 2005 Emily in the strangest storm section in the betting pools. Looks like I could be the first person to win that section! :)) Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:16, July 30, 2011 (UTC)

I now have posted another blog post. OWEN2011 00:27, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, we don't know if it will become a monster yet, but it isn't out of the question. And Andrew, HSpin won the strangest storm section for Omeka in the pacific hurricane season betting pools last year, so you would be the second, not the first. Sorry. =( Anyhow, this wave is certainly worth watching as it very well could be a re-Emily, but many other options are open to 91L as well, so don't count on a re-Emily just yet. Ryan1000 02:29, July 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to 70% now. Yqt1001 05:49, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * The big difference between this one and Don is Emily has so much more time to develop. It will likely become named, or at least numbered, before it even reaches the lesser antillies. So this storm could be quite severe for the Caribbean and U.S. The people in the leewards need to prepare NOW. I could easily see Emily at the most a cat 2 when it approaches the islands this Sunday/Monday. Ryan1000 06:06, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * This may be our first"big" storm of the season. If you want to see my blog written about it click on OWEN2011 and go to my blogs. OWEN2011 13:49, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, here's a quicker way to get to either blog, [] or []. If you have questions, contact me on my talk page ([]). Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:17, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Uh oh. 80% now, I'm expecting Emily by later today or tomorrow. It's really getting it's act together and we have a very good chance of seeing her very soon. It's starting to remind me of the 2005 season itself. We're at the fastest start since 2005, but the big difference between this year's start and 2005 and 2008 is all of the storms thus far were weak storms. 2005 had 2 pre-August cat 4's and a U.S. major hurricane of those two. That's a record. There were 3 U.S. landfalls before August 2005, 2 of which were hurricanes. 2008 had the longest-lived pre-August storm on record and a billion-dollar U.S. storm before August. In 2011, we had Arlene, which caused some moderate impact to Mexico, Bret and Cindy, both fish storms, and Don, which only lightly affected Texas, perhaps it caused some destruction, but not much. We had a lot of named storms thus far, but unlike 2008's or 2005's starts, they are all short-lived and weak. Anyways, keep your eyes out for future Emily. Ryan1000 17:58, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh,no... at 90%. TD 4 could happen later tonight, then TS Emily tomorrow. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:57, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * An air force reconossance will be scheduled to investigate this wave later today for a possible low-level circulation, therefore TD 5. Furthermore, the wave in the EPac south of Acapulco is up to 70%. That thing is already spinning. It has to be 5-E by later today. Ryan1000 02:07, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Near 100% in the Atlantic and 90% in the Pacific our to E storms are coming AllanJeffs
 * For my blog written yesterday see . OWEN2011 12:39, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Argh... Come on NHC! It's TD 5 and you know it. Why are you so stubborn to have to wait until it develops it's circulation? BTW, we now have 5-E in the east Pacific; it's already forecast to become a hurricane and it isn't even named yet. Muifa is now down to a cat 4 super typhoon in the WPac and the latest forecast still takes it towards Southern Japan or the Koreas. It will try to head towards China and Taiwan, but an approaching trough will pull it towards Japan most likely as a category 2 storm. However, I agree Emily is going to be our big story over the next week as it charges across the Caribbean. Ryan1000 14:34, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at near 100%. It looks like it's weakening and becoming more elongated. However, interests in the Caribbean need to closely monitor this system's progress over the next several days, because it is still very likely to develop by tonight or tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:26, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Hunters had a communication problem, that 100% figure is all satellite estimates, but it is elongated and seems to be a weakening a bit. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Very elongated; down to 90% as well. --HurricaneMaker99 23:49, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure if this will happen but the NAM presentation for this system out 78 hours is just scary. Hurricane David much? Check this out: CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Argh... Come on NHC! It's TD 5 and you know it. Why are you so stubborn to have to wait until it develops it's circulation? BTW, we now have 5-E in the east Pacific; it's already forecast to become a hurricane and it isn't even named yet. Muifa is now down to a cat 4 super typhoon in the WPac and the latest forecast still takes it towards Southern Japan or the Koreas. It will try to head towards China and Taiwan, but an approaching trough will pull it towards Japan most likely as a category 2 storm. However, I agree Emily is going to be our big story over the next week as it charges across the Caribbean. Ryan1000 14:34, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at near 100%. It looks like it's weakening and becoming more elongated. However, interests in the Caribbean need to closely monitor this system's progress over the next several days, because it is still very likely to develop by tonight or tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:26, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Hunters had a communication problem, that 100% figure is all satellite estimates, but it is elongated and seems to be a weakening a bit. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Very elongated; down to 90% as well. --HurricaneMaker99 23:49, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure if this will happen but the NAM presentation for this system out 78 hours is just scary. Hurricane David much? Check this out: CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)



Wow, I didn't expect the shear to gain a hold of it, but it did elongate 91L somewhat. It's just that, this thing is still in very favorable conditions and still has a very high chance of forming today or Tuesday, so don't let your guard down just yet. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's still at 90%, but a hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating this disturbance for information on whether or not it has developed a closed low-level circulation. If that has happened, then it will accordingly be numbered TD 5. Muifa is gradually weakening, and Eugene is slowly but surely strengthening into a hurricane. We're really kicking into gear. I archived the part before this thing for July, but this invest is staying, since it's going to develop in August. Ryan1000 13:01, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * The satellite appearance of the system isn't too elongated as it was yesterday. Looks like it resumed to a "normal" size. It also seems as if 91L is forming an eye? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg
 * It needs to have that closed circulation for it to become TD 5(and sign your post with 4 tildes 99). The HH aircraft still hasn't given confirmation to the NHC for a depression though... Ryan1000 13:38, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Well, the HH aircraft is back, and despite the well-defined structure of 91L and the fact it's producing near-TS force winds, it's still not developing that closed circulation. Another aircraft will check it out later today for possible development. It really wants to take it's time. It's likely not going to be such a threat to the lesser antillies for that reason, but Jamacia, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the U.S. gulf coast need to keep their eyes out for this thing. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:22, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Is this wave really trying to stay this weak? It's now further down to 80%... I thought I would see TD 5 by now, but I guess it will have to enter the Caribbean for it to develop now. Don't let your guard down just yet. It still could become Emily. Ryan1000 18:26, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This would be helpful, Martinque radar! Please tell us what you think of the radar presentation that 91L gives. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:30, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * More than likely that we have emily know. AllanJeffs in the place i am is 21:26, August 1,2011
 * The circulation of 91L has made landfall on Dominica, but the main story is still to come. The area of convection east of the circulation center recently exploded, creating a large column of supercells that extend from east of the island of Guadeloupe to Barbrados. Dominica remained sunny for much of the day, even as the circulation center passed over. However, thunderstorm activity recently flared over the center, so they are getting tropical thunderstorm activity as we speak. Guadeloupe is getting a supercell over their heads, and Martinque, which has not seen much rain today, will get a wall of rain coming towards them. As for the other islands, there is a thunderstorm over Barbrados, but I cannot confirm with a Barbrados radar (it's offline) to confirm that it is pouring rain. Nonetheless, Barbrados remains within the wall of storms until about 2 hours later. St. Lucia is starting to have clouds, and will have rain on them soon. St. Vincent, which saw rain earlier today from the wave west of 91L, had a brief sun break, but will see rain in a short time. The final island, Grenada, will miss most of the thunderstorm activity, but additional showers are likely. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Finally Emily is born invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren 01-Aug-2011 22:19 3.2K let see where she go AllanJeffs 22:27 August 1, 2011
 * Finally Emily is born invest_RENUMBER_al912011_al052011.ren 01-Aug-2011 22:19 3.2K let see where she go AllanJeffs 22:27 August 1, 2011

NAM really loves this thing, doesn't it? Check the WunderMap - now it's taking Emily right into Haiti at (I think?) hurricane strength! Please, 91L, behave yourself! --HurricaneMaker99 23:34, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Emily
Special advisory issued by NHC; Emily is born at 35 kt/1006 mbar. NHC takes her into DR as a TS, weakening, then becoming a minimal hurricane as it nears Florida. And NAM really loves this thing, doesn't it? Check the WunderMap - now it's taking Emily right into Haiti at (I think?) hurricane strength! Please, Emily, behave yourself! --HurricaneMaker99 23:34, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah you beat me! Looks like the "gamble" has paid off! Hello, Emily, the fourth storm of the season to skip tropical depression status. While satellite imagery seems disorganized, the radar is beautiful. They got the Martinque radar mosiac back, yes!! Check out theradar The circulation center now seems to be positioned southwest of Dominica, although the main thunderstorm activity is positioned east of center. Guadeloupe and Dominica still facing tropical storm strength winds. Anyways, let's remember the struggle that 91L committed into becoming Emily! :D CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:49, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

August 1 is really early for a hurricane. Also, the NHC track makes Emily the first hurricane since Ike in 2008 to make landfall in the U.S., and our first east coast strike since Katrina (Ophelia and Earl don't count)! Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:49, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'd be stunned if this thing could even survive it's first landfall; if it does hit Hispaniola, it will be shredded up by the mountains there and will likely either end up in the Gulf of Mexico or just die out. Go tell Hurricane David of 1979 he had a pleasant time over there. It stormed into Santo Domingo as a 175 mph category 5 hurricane and barely emerged the DR as a one. Olga of 2007 crossed them in December and it just died out after it hit them, as a 60 mph storm. Hispaniola is not a happy place for hurricanes. If this thing was heading further westward across the Caribbean towards, say Jamacia, it would be much more dangerous than where it otherwise could be if it follows that NHC track. And climatologically we are actually supposed to get our first hurricane by July 31, so we're actually right on track if you ask the experts from where our first hurricane should be, except Emily is more than a month ahead of the normal date of our E name. The lesser antillies got off pretty easy I think. Emily might have brought some rainshowers to them but it's nothing compared to the monstorous hurricanes we have had in the past there(Ivan, Dean, Janet, Hugo, ect). Ryan1000 23:52, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is a lucky chance for survival if it traverses East Hispanola, less mountains there. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:01, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * CobraStrike, I was saying if it does follow the current NHC track and does hit central Hispaniola, it will get knocked down and will likely skim northern Cuba and get between the straights of Florida to go into the Gulf of Mexico. If that scenario comes up, boy oh boy, bad things are gonna happen. Unlike Bonnie or TD 5 of last year, this year we have an OASIS in the Gulf. VERY little shear and dry air, and it has to make landfall once it gets into the GOM. I think the interaction with Hispaniola will change it's path to crossing north of Cuba until it reaches the Gulf. That's what's scaring me about this thing. We haven't had a major hurricane in the Gulf since, well technically, Karl of last year, but Gustav was the last GOM MH we had threatening the U.S. coastline in 2008, not to mention Ike, though never becoming an MH in the GOM, caused massive damage on the Gulf coast as a strong as hell category 2. Stay tuned. I think our first big NAtl story of 2011 is here, and unfolding. Ryan1000 00:16, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * If the Azores High remains as is right now and buldges slightly east and then back west, the Gulf scenerio may occur. If that happens, and the GOM remains a tropical oasis, then I predict (coming from a 5th grader) that it will be a solid category 3 before landfalling on the Texas coast, but rapid deepening is likely. However, most of the models are agreeing with the main NHC forecast track, but a few (BAMM and BAMD) are looking for a Gulf scenerio. Anyways, there is an unvaforable area (bunch of SAL and shear) north and west of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico showing strenthening. May be a factor. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:26, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * The intnsities of hurricanes also determines their forecast track, however. If Emily runs head-on into Hispaniola, it will rapidly fall down into a minimal tropical storm or depression, or if we get really lucky, dissipate. Normally, weak storms aren't as affected by steering currents as much as strong ones are. If Emily shrinks down into a TD or barely a TS, then the Bermuda High won't be able to get a hold of Emily and it will escape the high and wind up in the GOM. Currently Emily's core is a little to the west of the main thunderstorm activity. If Emily get's her act together like lightning(I mean David lightning), then the east coast scenario is more likely. If Emily remains a weak and disorganized storm when it hits Hispaniola, the Gulf scenario is more likely. As I mentioned earlier, the mountanous terrain of Hispaniola is not a happy place for hurricanes. We'll just have to wait and see. Ryan1000 00:40, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just to let everyone know, I have just posted a new blog of Emily, Eugene, and Muifa. OWEN2011 01:05, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just to let everyone know, I have just posted a new blog of Emily, Eugene, and Muifa. OWEN2011 01:05, August 2, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Panama
Some model support, it's in a basin of hot water and little shear in the peak of the hurricane season. Every wave should be noted at this point. :P Yqt1001 05:49, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * This thing is really close to land, so it has to get it's act together now until it comes closer to CA and doesn't affect land, or if it misses Central America to the east, it may interact with Cuba and Florida instead, hopefully not being as strong as 91L could be. Ryan1000 13:10, July 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Up to near 0% chance now. Yqt1001 23:42, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Will this really become a tropical cyclone, or even an invest? Let's wait and see. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:18, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * No offense, but this AOI is a sad excuse for sh!t. I would be stunned if it's upped to medium chance by tomorrow or later today. It's moving into EPac however, so it could be future Greg if the two current invests develop there. However, there's no Franklin coming from this one. Ryan1000 02:56, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I mean it looks pretty good, but since it's supposed to spread over land, there's nothing we can do but watch. :D CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:45, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more mention on the TWO. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cape Verde
Made it bold so it could be recognized as a title but anyways, here is a wave off Africa and south of the Cape Verde islands in the ITCZ. Haven't seen much model support yet, but should be watched for. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:35, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * It doesn't need to be bolded, we can recognize it on the NHC's website just as much here. Anyways, 91L is the more iminent threat, I believe. This wave could be future Franklin however. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ryan, I know this is far out but how strong do you think this system may get down the road? 96.242.128.37 01:45, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given the fact this wave will be following behind Emily(91L), it actually might weaken upon approaching the Caribbean behind her outflow, if she becomes strong. However, this AOI has a LONG ways to go. The SAL off of Africa is still pretty thick, so this wave has to fight that before it can do ANYTHING. 91L managed to fight it, but can this wave do so as well? We'll have to wait and see. All options are open to this wave, but there is no gurantee it will do anything yet. August has begun though, so from now on, everything bears watching. There's no telling what anything will do; the greatest thing you can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. Ryan1000 02:09, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
No harm in starting this early, like we did with the EPAC and WPAC, now is there? --HurricaneMaker99 03:47, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 10% - 25 deaths is pretty bad, but probably not enough to earn retirement.
 * Bret: 0% - The resilience was admirable; however, considering the lack of any major effects, retirement is out of the question.
 * Cindy: 0% - I feel kinda bad booing her, since she survived into some really cold waters, but... BOO
 * Don: 0% - Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing.


 * I'm going to wait until later here. If 91L (Emily) of this year happens to do what her 2005 predecesor couldn't(that is, cause enough damage to be retired), then I'll throw in my percentages because as of now, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement. Thus far, I'd be surprised if we have ANY names nominated. Arlene didn't hit Mexico hard enough, and every other storm thus far did virtually nothing. Ryan1000 05:03, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine:
 * Arlene - 15% - It killed two dozen people, but Mexico has seen worse than her, and Arlene's coming back in 2017.
 * Bret - 0% - I don't think Bret's going, unless he's some tyrant name.
 * Cindy - 0% - See you in 2017!!!
 * Don - 1% - Affected land, dropped 2/3 inch of rain in Brownsville, that's it. No way Don's going.
 * Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather consevative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather consevative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)