Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page   Wall   Edits  01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: 600 Miles East of the Leeward Islands
At 10/20, and not expecting much from this due to the upper-level winds it has to face. All of our attention is on the above beast anyway. Nicole will probably come later. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:33, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invest'd and up to 20/30.If it gets lucky, it might become a brief TS, but it'll be ripped up by Matthew's outflow like Tony was by Sandy 4 years ago. Ryan1000 10:11, October 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is a fairly nice looking invest compared to some we saw in 2013-2014. This could possibly be Nicole in a few days.Two_atl_2d1.png T  G  21:56, October 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * I hope not, unless this can pull a surprise like Kate did last November. Nicole is one of the names I've been rooting for to go to a strong hurricane this season. I honestly wouldn't have minded in retrospect if something had snuck in to steal the name Matthew so that this weekend's monster would have been named Nicole instead :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:57, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * 30/30. This may become a TD in the coming days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:04, October 3, 2016 (UTC)

Now up to 40/40, per NHC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:19, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:23, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * up to 60%. Looks like this might hickjack the name Nicole before its done. Most women names have been fail this year with the exception of Hermine. Sad.Allanjeff 23:47, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * I don't want to see any name stealer/epic fail. Unfortunately, this is bound to happen. I'm begging you; stay as a TD or weaker! ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:56, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 70% with only an increase in organization and we have our 15 depression. Hoping it does not become a weak ts but we never know with this things. Matthew´s outflow might kill it in two days though. Allanjeff 05:34, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Winds now of 35knots if upgrade it will go straight to Nicole. AL, 98, 2016100406, 01, CARQ, 0, 232N, 603W, 35, 1010, DB, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 6, INVEST, S,  Allanjeff 06:58, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Touching on Allan's point about the female names generally falling short this season; the Atlantic has been a bit sexist over the past few years. We've had six major hurricanes since Sandy, and all of them have had male names. :/ Variety is the spice of life; if the name Nicole has to go to a weakling (which I hope it doesn't; it's my second-favorite name on the list after Danielle, and the Atlantic has yet to have an 'N' storm surpass Category 1 intensity), then hopefully Paula can rise up to the occasion, as long as it does so when it's not a threat to land.
 * The Atlantic should take a page out of last year's EPAC book; that season was slightly skewed towards the female side, what with Patricia's record intensity and Jimena and Sandra coming in distant second and third places, but you also had Andres, Ignacio, and Olaf all reaching intensities of at least 125 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:13, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it is what it is, that was also the case two years ago in the EPac, when most of the season's major hurricanes were female names, though the Atlantic has had a tough time with that. Back to this, still at 70/70, and NHC notes that only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of TD 15, or Nicole. Ryan1000 10:51, October 4, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole

 * And this storm is the latest addition to the fishspinner storms list of 2016. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * I knew this had a chance to become Nicole, but it's not going to last long before Matthew's outflow rips it apart in a day or two. Ryan1000 15:24, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Well, try again in 2022, Nicole. You're going to soon be Matthew's lunch. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 23:50, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually its becoming better organized even with all that shear. Have an outside chance of becoming a cat 1 as most models make her stronger than she is. The HWRF and GFDL have her as a hurricane soon. Allanjeff 00:37, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * The 18z GFDL actually predicted Nicole would already be a hurricane by now. XD --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:53, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew's been shrinking a lot more than I thought it would with his recent landfall on the eastern tip of Cuba as a cat 4, it looks like Nicole won't be sheared apart by Matthew's outflow as quickly as I thought. If this manages to pull a Shary and become a hurricane despite that, then this won't be a fail, even better that it'll remain well clear of Bermuda if it does so. Ryan1000 03:27, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I never expected 60 mph from this thing! It is really trying hard and avoiding Matthew's outflow. Looks like Nicole didn't want to disappoint us this time. It could even have a shot at becoming a hurricane, which would be surprising considering the original forecast for unfavorable upper-level winds (aka Matthew's outflow I assume). However, in the midst of Matthew, not many people are probably caring about Nicole. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:57, October 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nicole is probably at 70mph now base on satellites and what other friends in meteorology have told me. She might become a hurricane at the 11pm advisory. Most models now agree on Nicole becoming a hurricane ranging from cat 1 to cat 2 intensity. I am rooting for a cat 2. She is taking advantage because Matthew shrink a lot from its passage of Cuba and because she is small and the outflow of Matthew cant reach her as of now. Models also agree that they might interact in the near future in a fujiwhara dance.Will be incredible to see. Allanjeff 22:38, October 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * NICOLE, AL, L,, , , , 15, 2016, HU, <- looks like we have Hurricane Nicole, the sixth of the season. 168.213.7.119 17:23, October 6, 2016 (UTC)




 * and the revised 12z best track gives it 70kt! user | Monseur Roussil 97  | user 17:39, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Nicole
who knew? heh Nicole might shear Matthew apart, jk.

user | Monseur Roussil 97  | user 17:48, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Dang it, I got edit-conflicted. But yes, we now have our sixth hurricane of the season. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 17:53, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yay! Nicole became a hurricane! Maybe it can squeeze out category 2! That would be amazing if it did. This season is getting better every day, and it looks like we have avoided a below average season this year. :D ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 19:14, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Not bad, not bad. It could pull off a little more intensification and may take a nice loop-de-loop path out to sea, and best of all, it's not hitting land, not even Bermuda. Ryan1000 19:45, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow, I did not expect this. Nicole is surprising me. It might even become a C2 at this pace. The forecast is showing weakening followed by restrengthening back to a hurricane. What I once predicted to be a name stealer has fought back! Maybe Nicole saw our posts about calling this a name stealer early on and later decided to impress us. :P Reminds me of storms like Michael from 2012...except this probably shouldn't become a major. Well, anything can happen but I would still be surprised to see a major. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:56, October 6, 2016 (UTC){| class="postContent" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:0px;background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;margin-bottom:15px;border:0pxsolidtransparent;table-layout:auto;width:747px;color:rgb(30,32,35);font-family:verb,"HelveticaNeue",Helvetica,Helvetica,Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;"


 * - style="box-sizing:border-box;"
 * id="comonly_56" style="box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;margin:0px;font-size:0.875rem;line-height:1.5;"|AL, 15, 2016100700,, BEST, 0, 274N, 652W, 90, 968, HU.  Allanjeff 00:52, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * }


 * Hurricane Nicole continues to intensify & now has a pinhole eye surrounded by deeper convection. Could be undergoing RI despite shear. Making a run to become the third major of the season? If it does so, I believe it'll be the first time we saw simultaneous majors in the Atlantic since 2010. Owen 00:39, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Um - this is insane. Nicole is seriously mad at us from earlier (when I and others complained that it would be another name stealer). At this point, major status is getting likely. It might even make a run at C4 status. :O ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:53, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nicole is now a cat 2 with winds of 105 mph base on ATCF.Allanjeff 04:17, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Officially 90 kts/968 mbar per NHC. Unless I'm mistaken, Nicole is now the strongest Atlantic 'N' storm on record. Sorry for doubting you at first, Nicole - go, girl, go! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:38, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Nicole could reach major hurricane status, but I think it only has a small window to do so. Matthew is the king of the season, Nicole wants to be the queen it appears. From the NHC discussion: "This is the first time since September 10, 1964 that two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred simultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W. Interestingly, those hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions as Matthew and Nicole are now." Owen 02:46, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Really thought this would be a weak storm. Glad that I was wrong. Good thing this storm is expected to stay in the open Atlantic. Anyway, go Nicole! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:04, October 7, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole (2nd time)
Down to 70 mph. No longer a hurricane, but it was fun while it lasted. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, the shear must have demolished it last night. The latest advisory for Nicole is showing 60 mph/997 mbar. It is forecast to retain TS intensity for the next 5 days. I hope it can possibly restrengthen to hurricane strength. :) ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:13, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 60 mph. Nicole is now gradually weakening too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:58, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might curve back north in the long run, maybe even towards Bermuda, but it probably won't be coming back to its former strength. Ryan1000 06:25, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * 50 mph, 999 millibars. Not expected to dissipate yet, though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:42, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

Down to 40 mph. But Nicole is firing up some intense convection. Hope she restrengthens. elawson7

-__- ... 50 mph again. elawson7 17:09, October 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * While she isn't the prettiest-looking tropical storm at the moment, Nicole is giving the shear, which is expected to lessen again, a run for its money! Fingers crossed she finds a way to RI again and reaches major status. elawson7  01:13, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * All things considered I think Nicole is rebounding very nicely today. Matthew's slow demise is giving her room to breathe. I was wondering why, given the forecast track, Nicole's potential impact on Bermuda has not yet been brought up. The GFS and ECWMF models are in agreement Nicole will be impacting Bermuda as a hurricane on Thursday, quite possibly as a major hurricane. Looks like she's going to be another ACE maker for this season, looks like by the time it's all wrapped up we could quite possibly approach the 2011 and 2012 ACE totals assuming we have Otto in the future and Nicole does what these models are saying she will do. Owen 01:29, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * You're right. I've been so focused on Matthew's impacts that I've been ignoring Nicole's. Nicole is looking increasingly better, and appears poised for a dangerously close encounter with Bermuda. I take back what I said about her RI for a second time. This season has already been an impactful one, needless to say. For now, her circulation remains to the west of the deep convection, so shear isn't letting up just yet. elawson7  02:12, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Apparently some bands from Nicole are now causing flood warnings in Puerto Rico. --Whiplash (talk) 02:53, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * That's unfortunate. Nicole is stuck at 45 kt for now, but expected to restrengthen to a minimal hurricane just east of Bermuda later this week. They should prepare for worse, Nicole is massive.  Eric  11:36, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * 50 kt again...  Eric  15:06, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Most global models are showing Nicole as a major impacting Bermuda. Would be incredible to have two major hurricanes in October. I am not sure when it was the last time we had two in this month. Allanjeff 17:12, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * I hope it doesn't become too strong for Bermuda's sake. And it was 2011 with Ophelia and Rina. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  17:25, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Woah, seems as if Nicole is getting that look again. Looks like she will be a hurricane once again soon, and if she does get retired if she's bad in Bermuda, and assuming Matthew and Earl get retired, we will be looking at our first season to retire more than two names in a season since 2008. Just something to note lol. Owen 19:02, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

55 kt. Forecasted to reach 80 kt, but that could, unfortunately for Bermuda, be conservative. I hope they are prepared... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  21:07, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * It appears that the shear is ripping Nicole apart tonight, with her circulation exposed. Satellite estimates have dropped, and this may prevent it from becoming as strong as it was a few days ago. Good news for Bermuda. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  01:24, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Interesting developments this morning. It appears the NHC track now takes Nicole straight over Bermuda as a Category 2 hurricane. If she manages to RI like she did and the track stays the same, that is not good news for Bermuda. Owen 10:09, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Nicole might actually turn out to be worse for Bermuda than I expected, now it's expected to become a 100 mph storm moving directly over the island in 3 days. If the worst happens and Nicole RI's to a major instead, she might actually have a good chance at retirement down the road. Ryan1000 10:54, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Nicole has a very poor satellite appearance this morning. However, because her convection has increased somewhat, satellite estimates have done the same. I just hope Bermuda is preparing for the worst and hoping for the best, as Florida did with Matthew. Let's hope she doesn't directly pass over them... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  12:54, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

She's back down to 50 kt. Eric 14:54, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * GFS blows Nicole into a very large hurricane in about four days, with Bermuda being hit...looks like she wants to create a legacy of her own. Making up for what Karl should've been? Owen 17:30, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Conditions are going to become fairly favorable for Nicole to become a hurricane in the next day or two, including very warm SST's and rapidly decreasing shear, the only inhibiting factor is some dry air left behind in the wake of ex-Matthew, but if that doesn't get in the circulation then Nicole might become stronger than currently forecast due to its small size. Ryan1000 20:54, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hurricane watch issued for Bermuda. Eric  21:38, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Nicole (2nd time)
"...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN, HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA..." 65 kts, 982 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:50, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Will be very interesting to see what the intensity of Nicole is when it passes Bermuda. I believe Gonzalo was a Cat 2 like Nicole is expected to be. EDIT: She's also looking pretty good .  Owen 18:48, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * 70 kt, 980 mbar. In all honesty, though, Nicole looks stronger than that. Forecasted to peak at 95 kt. Poor Bermuda... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  20:48, October 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nicole should become a major by tomorrow if she continues to intensify at the rate she is going. Poor Bermuda, its goingto be hit . Meanwhile the Gfs show Otto and Paula with Otto becoming a major and affecting the Caribbean. Allanjeff 22:22, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * I have a really bad feeling about Nicole. Idk what i think is, but she looks like she's on par to reach a peak of 105-115 kt. Imagine the worst case scenario of a Category 4 hurricane making landfall on Bermuda. Owen 22:58, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * 75 kt, 974 mbar. But, Nicole's eye is having trouble clearing out, perhaps due to dry air. Nonetheless, Bermuda should be ready. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  00:58, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * This thing may only be at 90 mph now, but Nicole looks amazing right now on sattelite imagery and if Nicole manages to become a major hurricane before hitting Bermuda on Thursday, she might actuallly have a good chance at being retired. Bermuda hasn't seen a major hurricane in 13 years, even longer when you consider it's October. Ryan1000 03:14, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it appears DVORAK estimates now place Nicole just below major or at major hurricanes status now. The new estimates say she is at 100 kt winds with a minimum pressure of 956. We will see what the NHC does, but it looks like she wants to become a major. Owen 05:27, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC says 100 mph and 970 mbars, but major hurricane status isn't out of the question before it hits Bermuda tomorrow and they should be prepared for whatever Nicole has to throw at them. Ryan1000 11:44, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * ADT estimates at 110 kt. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  16:03, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 110/962 now, making it the third-strongest storm of the season. Expected to strengthen slightly to 115 mph, which would make it the first time the Atlantic has had more than 2 majors since 2011. Wow, I'm loving this season... ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 21:25, October 12, 2016 (UTC)

Nicole reminds me of Alex in terms of structure and lack of winds corresponding to the structure. She is the strongest female hurricane of the season, so she gets to be the queen of the season. Pretty cool she will likely give this season another major, with the possibility that the GFS is picking up on a long-range major hurricane Otto far out. However, it's not good that she's headed straight toward Bermuda. Fabian was a 3 when he passed Bermuda, and Nicole should be around the same intensity, so prayers should be sent out for the island. Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't it unprecedented to see Bermuda get hurricane strikes three years in a row? Owen 21:29, October 12, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Nicole
100 kt, 956 mbar, Nicole is officially the third major hurricane of the season. But, this isn't necessarily a good thing...Bermuda is in for a lot. ): <font face="Verdena"> Eric  23:38, October 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * To be fair Owen, Joaquin of last year turned slightly north before hitting the island directly, but if you mean passing a certain distance from the island, there was also a 3-year streak from 1947-49 where Bermuda had some fairly close calls or hits. But nonetheless, if Nicole gets any stronger before hitting Bermuda, she might actually get pretty bad for them, maybe even comparable to Fabian. Ryan1000 23:48, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * In case anyone cares:
 * Nicole is the first Atlantic major hurricane to bear a female name since Sandy in 2012.
 * With the other two majors of this season bearing male names, 2016 boasts the first co-ed MH roster since 2012 had Michael and Sandy.
 * Nicole is the first Atlantic 'N' storm to reach major hurricane status (though not the first 14th storm of a season to do so; the 14th storms of 1932 and 1933 were both Category 5s). This also means that every letter on the AHS alphabet, except for 'T' and 'V', has been used for at least one major hurricane.
 * Nicole makes this October the first month to boast at least two major hurricanes since October 2011 had Ophelia and Rina.
 * This is the first time the Atlantic has had at least two consecutive storms attain MH status since 2010 had Igor, Julia, and Karl all in a row.
 * --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:55, October 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * On a side note, nobody really has payed any attention to the Eastern Pacific page... /: <font face="Verdena"> Eric  23:53, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * 14/6/3. Owen 00:54, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * So it appears with the dropsonde info that it looks like Nicole is a 130mph cat 4 with a 955mb pressure. However, I'm expecting the NHC to be a bit conservative and put Nicole as ~952-954mb with 105-110kt winds in the next update. Owen 01:28, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Officially a Category 4. Simply amazing. Owen 03:01, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I just hope Nicole isn't as bad for Bermuda as I fear it will be... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  03:07, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * On October 4 we all thought this would be an epic fail and a waste of a name. Fast-forward 8.5 days, it's raging at 115 kts and has relegated the almighty Gaston to the bronze for season intensity. Reminds me of Joaquin, which was initially forecast to sputter and wither away as a tropical depression without even earning itself a name &mdash; we all know how that forecast panned out. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:11, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Nicole amazed us all. Also a bit of some trivia: With Nicole now a Cat 4, this marks the first time two Cat 4/5s have existed in October in the Atlantic since reliable records began in 1851. Owen 03:23, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Barely a C4, 130 mph/950 mb. I have never expected Nicole to go this far. The hurricane gets an A+ in my book. Fantastic job, girl! :) I can't believe we saw the first time ever recorded that two C4+ storms have existed in October. However - Bermuda HAS to prepare. I am hoping it is no re-Fabian. After Matthew, we just cannot have another potentially devastating storm like this. D': ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:57, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Woah, I didn't expect this thing to get so powerful, I guess we shouldn't count our epic fails before they hatch, because Nicole overcame all odds and could be the worst hurricane to strike Bermuda since the Havana/Bermuda hurricane of 1926, if not their worst hurricane ever. Hopefully they've prepared, because this thing is going to absolutely rip the island later today. Ryan1000 07:32, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

5 AM advisory is out, the winds are still at 130 but the pressure rose slightly to 952, also it's picking up speed. Still, Bermuda is in for a massive slamming from this hurricane today. Ryan1000 08:43, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Poor Bermuda. If Nicole doesn't weaken at all, she's gonna be the only category 4 to strike Bermuda I believe. As of now, considering her intensity with Bermuda in the path, it's becoming quite likely Nicole will become a strong retirement candidate. Owen 10:00, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I had no clue that Nicole would become a 130-mph hurricane. I hope Bermuda is ready for their version of Matthew. T  G  11:19, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * 8 AM advisory nerfs Nicole slightly to 125 mph and 953 mbars, but that's still a very strong and dangerous hurricane. It may be making landfall on Bermuda as soon as the next advisory, the northern half of the hurricane is already hitting the island and bringing near hurricane-force winds. EDIT: the latest sattelite appearance looks very deceiving, it seems like Nicole will pass just east of the island but if you look closely it's taking a turn almost due north with the last motion, so the northern eyewall, which is a very strong part of the storm, could be a direct hit in a few hours. Ryan1000 12:02, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Nicole (3rd time)
Down to 95 kts/963 mbar as it pulls away from Bermuda. Hopefully the folks over there made it out alright. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:44, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

I can't believe Nicole became a major hurricane. Hopefully Bermuda got out okay. Leeboy100 Hope for Haiti. 21:07, October 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nicole weakened to about the strength of Fabian (120 mph) when it's northern eyewall hit Bermuda earlier today, but unfortunately for Bermuda that was the strongest part of the storm, and she still produced very strong winds that tore the roofs off of homes, washed out roads, knocked down trees and power lines, and blew boats ashore. While Bermuda is well-prepared for the effects of hurricanes, a major hurricane hitting Bermuda is still rare and can produce a lot of damage despite how prepared the island is. If total damages on Bermuda were bad enough, Nicole might actually be retired after this year. Ryan1000 22:13, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

Down to 75 kt, but her pressure remains quite low, 965 mbar. Very fortunately, damage on Bermuda was much less than they had feared, and there have been no reports of fatalities thus far. Nice try though, Nicole. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  14:25, October 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * The lack of deaths doesn't surprise me, but it wouldn't surprise me if damage on the island was fairly extensive, but it probably wasn't as bad as Fabian, since Fabian was much larger when it struck the island. Ryan1000 15:03, October 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole (3rd time)
60 kt, but expected to restrengthen yet again. Nicole really is overachieving. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  03:01, October 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * She definitely wants to persist and continue to defy all of the odds. Owen 04:03, October 15, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Nicole (4th time)
Oh. She did it again. Per 11AM NHC update, Nicole has regained hurricane status. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:19, October 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * I really can't believe this. She has really defied all odds and surprised us all. This should be Nicole's last stint as a hurricane though. So we began with a forecast of an epic fail in the beginning and now we have a relatively long-lived hurricane that peaked as a Category 4. This pulled off a Joaquin, if you ask me. It looks like Bermuda got off rather easy; no deaths so far! :) Oh, and current intensity is set at 85 mph/960 mb. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:49, October 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Man, this thing has gotten absolutely massive. As of the 5pm forecast/advisory, Nicole's TS-force winds extended 360 nm to the northwest, and 300 nm to the southeast, for a total TS-force wind diameter of 660 nautical miles, which is the equivalent of 759 miles across! Where does that rank Nicole amongst the largest Atlantic hurricanes? I can't imagine Nicole is far outside the top 10. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:20, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11pm advisory from 5 and a half hours ago expanded the 34-kt wind field to 420 nm (483 miles) to the northwest, 300 nm (345 miles) to the southwest, 330 nm (379.5 miles) to the southeast, and 360 nm (414 miles) to the northeast... the widest diameter (NW-to-SE) is 750 nm, or 862.5 miles. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 08:35, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 958 mbars. Still at 85 mph though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:14, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * With regards to the gale diameter, that forecast advisory showing the 34-kt wind field diameter of 750 nm (865 mi, 1390 km) ties with Hurricane Olga of 2001 as the third largest Atlantic hurricane on record. The most recent advisory bumped both intensity and the gale diameter down a bit though, at 70 kt and 710 nm respectively. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:19, October 17, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole (4th time)
And she finally weakens to a tropical storm. Expected to be post-tropical in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:05, October 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * It looks like Nicole's longetivity now ties it with Igor of 2010 to become the third-longest lived hurricane of the 2010s, behind Philippe of 2011 and Nadine of 2012. She really hasn't wanted to go away. Owen 04:11, October 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * At this point, Nicole has brought the Atlantic ACE within 1 unit of EPac ACE (discounting the CPac). Thumbs up to this Atlantic season (but not including Matthew's destruction). ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:28, October 18, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole
The most resilient Atlantic TC of 2016 is finally shedding its tropical characteristics. This has surpassed Alex and Gaston as my favorite storm of the season, the effects on Bermuda (which were fortunately less severe than anticipated) notwithstanding. Defied the odds by reaching Category 2 strength when it was expected to remain at or below 45 kts, stuck it out through a rough patch and then came roaring back to life, became the strongest Atlantic 'N' storm by a wide margin (Category 4 @ 115 kts/950 mbar, previous record being Category 1 Nadine @ 80 kts/978 mbar) while boasting a satellite appearance that would make Matthew jealous, and then near the end of its tropical life, it ballooned into one of the largest Atlantic hurricanes on record. The downside to Nicole is the impacts on Bermuda, but even then, despite hitting them as a Category 3, Nicole was less destructive than feared and the Bermudians made it out A-OK. Hats off to you, Nicole, you were a fantastic storm to track! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:30, October 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Gotta say, I'm impressed Nicole managed to hang on this long. She managed to outlive her predecessor Matthew by 2 days and became one of the largest hurricanes on record in the open North Atlantic, fortunately while away from land. Better yet, it didn't hit Bermuda as hard as it was initially feared. Ryan1000 13:06, October 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Bermuda's minimal damage aside, Nicole was awesome. Miss her already. :-( <font face="Verdena"> Eric  22:41, October 18, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:East of Lessers
A new AOI has popped up east of the Lesser Antilles and is at 10/20. It could become Otto down the road, but not until it reaches the westernmost or northwestern edge of the Caribbean, because Matthew churned up a lot of cold water in the central Caribbean which this is going to be moving over. Ryan1000 18:24, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. This AOI will bring rain to the Lessers though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:47, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * 0/0. This may take a long time to develop, if it does so at all. Ryan1000 19:47, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * This just won't develop. Everyone is focusing much more on Matthew and to a lesser extent, Nicole. Otto is going to take a while to come, IMO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:59, October 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * FTR, this wasted AOI has poofed. Otto must come later. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:15, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * Good Otto is my favorite name on this list I would like to to be a half-memorable storm. It also will likely be the final storm of this season. --Whiplash (talk) 22:36, October 8, 2016 (UTC)

GFS SW Caribbean system
For the past few runs now, the GFS has been picking up on another powerful hurricane (Otto) in the Caribbean, this time in the warm waters of the central Caribbean. I've also seen far out runs taking this into Florida, more specifically Tampa Bay, as a major hurricane in a doomsday pre-Halloween scenario. Far out, but the thought of that happening in my area is horrifying. Plus, you don't even know what this thing can get to in the Caribbean seeing what Matthew became. This system will need more monitoring, I believe it's a wave that will be moving into the Caribbean soon. Owen 19:24, October 11, 2016 (UTC)

Oh no, not another one...Matthew was enough. I hope possible Otto goes out to sea... <font face="Verdena"> Eric  20:56, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Imagine 2 Category 5's in a season for the first time since 2007. That would help generate some serious ACE totals. Take a look here, looks a lot like a Wilma 2.0. Owen 00:26, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow...and in October too? That would be insane. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  00:55, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Forecasts 264 or more hours out are too far ahead to really say for certain, but the models were scary with Matthew before it formed and they were proven right, hopefully that's not the case this time too. The latest run of the GFS develops this in the westernmost Caribbean where disasterous late-season storms like Mitch and Wilma formed, not in the central Caribbean where Matthew peaked. Ryan1000 03:14, October 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * This thing has been going on and off the GFS for the past few days. There again it's at around 300 hours so it's not unexpected. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:16, October 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * With the AOI in the Bahamas is somehow expected to become Otto, will this future system be Paula? Or will this completely flop instead? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:14, October 17, 2016 (UTC)

Flop. Just the GFS raving at 300+ hours as usual. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:29, October 18, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Over the Bahamas
New AOI at 10/20 located over the Bahamas. Conditions are unfavorable, but the GFS, EURO and CMC all seem to show this system developing into a short-lived Tropical Storm Otto. It will probably be a weak name-waster, but at this point in the season, we should be glad to have any development. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 16:07, October 16, 2016 (UTC)

Now at 20% interesting some models are developing a wave in the MDR. They might drop it but interesting to see a strong wave at this time of year. It might develop in the SW Caribbean and become Paula if the AOI above develops into Otto. Allanjeff 18:38, October 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 20/40 now, NHC said that it could develop into a SUBTROPICAL cyclone. If that happens, it will continue the trend of Ottos forming as subtropical. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 23:55, October 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * This has weak support from GFS, but strong support from ECMWF and CMC. I'll opt to give this a high chance of becoming Otto over the next 5-7 days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:24, October 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 20/50, I suspect this may be weak a short lived, asymmetric subtropical storm Otto. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 15:43, October 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * At this point, I actually hope this forms. I just want to see how many storms the Atlantic can squeeze in right now. T  G  17:36, October 17, 2016 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Welcome back 99L! Hopefully you aren't as frustrating as last time. Anyway, up to 20/60. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 18:01, October 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * It looks like Otto may be on the way. I see a strong tropical storm or a minimal hurricane coming out of this, it definitely would be nice to see another hurricane to add onto our seasonal total. Owen 04:16, October 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * 40/70, and thus well on the way to Otto. A hurricane may be pushing it, but not totally impossible looking at what Nicole did about 10 days earlier. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:30, October 18, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions
(credit to Steve for the colors) ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - <font color="#669">1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022!
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022.
 * Colin - <font color="#449">5%  - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then.
 * Danielle - <font color="#669">1% - Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022.
 * Earl - 50% - Originally I had Earl's retirement chance at 70%. However with Matthew standing out as the season's most destructive storm now, I have decided to lower it to 50%. Although it caused at least 65 total deaths and was Mexico's deadliest storm since Stan. Mexico has snubbed storms from retirement before, such as Alex and Karl in 2010. I think Earl deserves to be retired, but it's not definite. At least $100 million in damage, which is a usually little low for retirement. It's possible he won't return in 2022, but I wouldn't bet on it.
 * Fiona - 0% - Didn't fail quite as badly as originally thought, as she reached 50 mph for a brief time and survived some moderate shear. Nevertheless, she was still a fail. Fiona the Fish Failicia will be back in 2022.
 * Gaston - 0% - Gastonic Gaston was awesome. Passed north of the Azores, but no damage or deaths were reported. See you in 2022!
 * Hermine - <font color="#049">15% - Again, I decided to lower my chance here. Hermine did end the 11-year Florida hurricane drought and caused at least $500 million in damage and 5 deaths. The impacts of Hermine were quite minor for a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and even COLIN was deadlier. I think it's more than likely she will stay for 2022, especially with Matthew overshadowing her.
 * Ian - 0% - Weak fishspinner, luckily it managed to reach 60 mph. Ian will return in 2022.
 * Julia - <font color="#669">2% - No confirmed deaths, but its remnants produced a lot of heavy rain in North Carolina and Virginia. Retirement is extremely unlikely, though.
 * Karl - <font color="#669">1% - Impacted Bermuda, but no reported deaths or damage. A frustrating fail that never reached hurricane status, despite some models predicting it would be a major hurricane!
 * Lisa - 0% - Another weak fishspinner that did literally nothing interesting. See you in 2022, Lisa.
 * Matthew - <font color="#900">99% - First category 5 since 2007, caused over 900 deaths, mostly in Haiti. Damage reports are estimated at $4-6 billion. This name better not return, if it does, it would be wrong. He won't be back in 2022.
 * Nicole (preliminary) - TBD - Possible threat to Bermuda in the future. Will update the probabilities when the storm dissipates.

Steve's retirement predictions and storm grades:
(Other users can feel free to use my colors)

Tropical depressions are included but only the storm grade for them are shown, since they cannot be retired.

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

(Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++, A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: Grade: <font color="#094">A+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - In the Azores, it caused a death and minimal damage. It was an amazing early season hurricane and one of the earliest hurricanes on record. Its "being early" achievement alone is deserving of the grade I gave. It still could have been better though, like a major hurricane not affecting land.
 * Bonnie: Grade: D- Retirement: <font color="#449">5%  - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. It was just a weak TS that barely amounted to much, but the fact that it was the second pre-season storm and that it regenerated increases its grade. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.
 * Colin: Grade: <font color="#F20">E  Retirement:  10%  - Colin was the earliest 3rd named storm on record, enough to affect the grade slightly. However, it was really disorganized and looked extratropical :P. 6 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement.
 * Danielle: Grade: <font color="#F20">E  Retirement: <font color="#669">1%  - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. It was also the earliest 4th named storm on record, enough to raise the grade a little.
 * Earl: Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#F70">75%  - Gets credit for being a hurricane and especially for restrengthening over the BOC, but the damage and deaths it caused is enough to lower the grade a little. 67 deaths and at least $250 million dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This storm has a high shot at retirement due to the destruction and deadly floods and mudslides that it caused throughout Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, as well as the deaths it caused as a tropical wave. It was the deadliest storm to strike Mexico since Stan in 2005, and the deadliest storm overall in the Atlantic since Sandy. If Stan was retired, this likely will be too. I doubt Earl will still be around in 2022.
 * Fiona: Grade: <font color="#F20"> F   Retirement:  0%  - A storm that fought the dry air well, but it was a weak fail nonetheless.
 * Gaston: Grade:  A  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - An impressive major hurricane that fought to stay alive. It also became a cool annular hurricane with a big eye. It didn't cause damage or kill people. But it did touch the Azores, preventing a complete 0%.
 * Eight: Grade: <font color="#500">Z  - A laughable fail. It never became a TS despite repeated predictions for it to become one. XD
 * Hermine: Grade:  B-  Retirement:  30%  - This seems to have a slight chance, with at least 300.5 million in damage and 5 deaths. Destruction in Florida was not good - photos showed many forced from their homes as well as bad flooding, destroyed roads, people using canoes to get to places, and more. This most likely won't be retired as the U.S. has snubbed worse storms such as Isaac, and U.S. retirements usually have a damage toll exceeding $1 billion. For the grade, it gets points for breaking the Florida hurricane landfall drought, and being the first GOM hurricane since Ingrid.
 * Ian: Grade:  F  Retirement:  0%   - Just a weak fishspinner, but a good 60 mph peak prevents a "Z" grade.
 * Julia: Grade: <font color="#F20">E  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - Gets an upping of the grade for doing awesome stunts, such as forming over land (first to do so since 1988!) and the first storm on record to form directly over Florida. It also lasted a while as a TD after weakening late in its life. However, it was still a very weak 40 mph "name-stealer", so giving anything higher than E is laughable. Any damage was minimal and no deaths have occurred.
 * Karl: Grade:  F  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - Small impacts to Bermuda give this a non-zero retirement chance. I was tempted to give this a Z, but reaching 70 mph is too good for my lowest possible fail grade. It sucks how this did not even try or become a hurricane. It was SOO close! Karl was a MAJOR disappointment! >:(
 * Lisa: Grade:  F  Retirement:  0%  - The fact that it peaked at 50 mph instead of the even more pathetic 40 or 45 mph prevents a "Z" grade, a grade reserved for the worst fails ever. Still an epic fail though, but not the absolute biggest fail.
 * Matthew: Grade: <font color="#094">A+  Retirement: <font color="#900">99%  - Bye bye. The NHC is smokin' crack if they don't retire you. The grade is lower than otherwise, due to the damage and deaths he inflicted.
 * Nicole: Grade: TBA Retirement: TBA - An unexpected C4 that has defied all odds initially placed against her - Matthew's outflow was one example. The grade will be released upon dissipation, but it will likely be an A+ at least. Bermuda got off rather easy, so retirement odds should not be too high at the end.

Raindrop's Retirements
(Retirement colors:   0% , <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% ,  10% , <font color="#049">15% ,  20% , <font color="#094">25% ,  30% , <font color="#390">35% ,  40% , <font color="#CF0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% ,  70% , <font color="#F70">75% ,  80% , <font color="#F20">85% ,  90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022.
 * Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: <font color="#669">2% - 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though.
 * Danielle: <font color="#669">1% - Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed.
 * Earl: <font color="#CF0">45%  - Wow, Earl really had a big impact for a category 1 hurricane! The flooding turned out to be extensive and the death toll is over 60 now. This means Earl definitely has a shot at retirement. Due to the NHC being conservative about retiring names and the fact that current damage totals are not too extensive yet, I'm keeping the odds of retirement worse than even, but Earl has caused major disruption to an entire country and this may need to be raised later.
 * Fiona:  0%  - Fiona was a weak storm, but it fought! Fiona tried her best through days of strong shear, but eventually lost the battle. However, Fiona's ghost still wanted to haunt us and contributed to the formation of TD8. Fiona was actually a pretty fun storm to track, and for the first time this year, it only spun fish.
 * Gaston:  0%  - Our first major hurricane of the season, Gaston, put on an impressive show while never threatening any land  - actually Gaston threatened the Azores, but weakened rapidly and did nothing. Gaston looked pretty bad during the period of high shear, but once that was gone, Gaston did not dissapoint! Gaston's lame attempt at affecting land doesn't even give it the slightest shot at retirement, considering Alex did practically nothing to the Azores. RIP Gaston, you were an amazing storm!
 * Hermine: <font color="#094">25%  - Hermine was the storm that finally brought the Florida hurricane drought to an end. Of course, that comes with a cost. Rainfall has been extensive with Hermine, and the storm surge has been bad, and it appears more impacts are yet to come. With the potential for future impacts, Hermine is not done yet despite no longer being tropical, and it stands a shot of retirement. However, the NHC snubbed Issac and other storms that hit the US and did damage, so the chance will remain low unless damage totals end up being a few billion dollars, which is hopefully not the case.
 * Ian:  0%  - Ian was a not-so-great fish storm that did manage to reach 60 mph before becoming extratropical. The most notable thing about Ian was that is was rocketing NE at over 50 mph when it became extratropical.
 * Julia: <font color="#669">1%  (Preliminary) - Julia formed OVER LAND, but despite that enigma didn't do much so far. This is still a preliminary estimate because Julia has consistently defied forecast predictions and may not be done with yet, and could still end up anywhere.
 * Karl: TBD - We'll see what Karl does to land,if anything, eventually, but right now nothing significant has happened yet.

Puffle's retirement predictions
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)


 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Alex : <font color="#669">1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bonnie : <font color="#449">5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. T  G  20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Colin : 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022.  T G  12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danielle : <font color="#449">5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm.   T G  17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Earl : 90% - Deadliest in Mexico since Stan, more damaging than Iris, what else can make this go? Earl pretty much devastated Mexico, and Mexico actually issued a state of emergency. The one reason Karl didn't go was because it only caused lots of damage and few fatalities. Earl caused both a high number of damage and fatalities, which is basically what made Stan go in 2005.  T G  17:38, August 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Fiona : 0% - Finally, a break from casualties, but Fiona was a very disappointing storm, much like its 2010 predecessor. T  G  22:01, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Gaston : <font color="#669">1% - Gaston didn't do anything in the Azores, but he gets a 1% chance for affecting the area. Gaston might be my favorite looking Atlantic storm.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Hermine : 50% - Hermine does have a chance to go, but we saw many storms snubbed by the United States in the past few years, such as Fay and Isaac. I've raised my prediction up to 50% because it caused some pretty extensive damage in Florida, but I'm not sure about retirement because of Fay and Isaac.   T G  20:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ian : <font color="#449">5% - Ian caused some minor impacts in Iceland, which is very unusual for a storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Julia : <font color="#669">1% - Julia does get acknowledgement for being the first storm since 1988 to form over land. Julia didn't do much on land, and it was a very weak storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Karl : <font color="#669">1% - Karl caused some minimal damage in Cape Verde. Karl was feared to be like Fabian at one point, but it barely did anything there. Karl's coming back for 2022.  T G  13:18, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Lisa : <font color="#669">1% - Lisa also caused minor damage in Cape Verde. That saying, Lisa will be back in 2022.  T G  20:14, September 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff6060">Matthew : <font color="#500">100% - He's gone for good. $9-12 billion in damages is enough for the United States to kick it off the lists. Also, 877 fatalities have been attributed by Matthew in Haiti. T  G  10:42, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Nicole : 40% - This reminds me more of Gonzalo than Fabian. I'm also really lenient on this one, but I think Nicole lands more on the odd side than the other. Nicole could go this spring, but I'm not betting on it. T  G  00:02, October 16, 2016 (UTC)

Leeboy's retirements.
Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1.1%-   Early  and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% isn't due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased.
 * Bonnie-<font color="#449">5%: My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement.
 * Colin- 10%:  Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly.

Leeboy100 Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle-  <font color="#449">5%:  Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death.
 * Earl:  50%:  Wow, I did not expect it to be this bad, this actually has a fair chance of retirement.
 * Fiona- 0%: LOL
 * Gaston-0% Just an absolutely beautiful hurricane that fortunately stayed out to sea. Gaston redeemed himself after 2004 and 2010.
 * Hermine-45%: Now, this was an interesting storm, the destruction it caused gives it a chance at retirement.
 * Ian-0%: See Fiona
 * Julia-1%: lolwut, what was Julia even doing?
 * Karl-0%: Nope.
 * Lisa-0%: See Fiona, Ian and Karl.
 * Matthew: 100%: I never have given, and never thought I would give, a retirement prediction this high. However, Matthew sure has been an awful hurricane, especially for Haiti, but if Haiti doesn't retire it, even with the horrifying death toll (which is still lower than Gordon 1994, by the way), the U.S. will for sure. North Carolina got hit hard. I've seen pictures of the flooding in NC and some of the pictures and video look strikingly similar to the flooding seen in New Orleans after Katrina. This storm very likely caused damage of at least $10 billion, which alone would get it retired, but with the death toll as well, which continues to grow, Matthew will not be returning in 6 years.
 * Nicole: TBA: Like Ryan and Owen, I am revoking my previous prediction due to the threat to Bermuda.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5. Colours only for severe storms with retirements of at least 30%, besides that, blue denotes current storms.
 * 1) Alex: grade A, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022.
 * 2) Bonnie: grade C, retirement 10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low.
 * 3) Colin: grade C, retirement 15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C.
 * 4) Danielle: grade D, retirement 5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality.
 * 5) Earl: grade B, retirement <font color="#ff8f20">65% . Nice start to August after an absolutely horrible July, but there have been 67 deaths overall, making Earl the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy. The damage total has gone up to at least US$250 million, with most of that from Belize and Mexico. This indeed has a decent chance of leaving the lists.
 * 6) Fiona: E, retirement 0%. First storm that hasn't affected land. Unfortunately it was weak.
 * 7) Gaston: grade A, retirement 5%. Became a major twice, with the second time at unusually high latitude. Azores impact was minor.
 * 8) Hermine: grade B, retirement <font color="#094">30% . It pulled itself together to become a hurricane at the last minute after a frustrating two weeks hoping it would actually become something, and broke Florida's 11-year hurricane-proof streak. However with a low death toll and not particularly severe damage for the U.S. for a hurricane, retirement doesn't seem that likely.
 * 9) Ian: grade E, retirement 0%. Strengthened to 50 knots, but overall still a name-stealer.
 * 10) Julia: grade D, retirement 5%. This formed over Florida and lasted for a surprisingly long time, but didn't cause much significant impact.
 * 11) Karl: grade F, retirement 5%. Managed to last to Bermuda, where impact was minor, despite being in hostile conditions for its early life. But once the shear weakened it didn't try. At all.
 * 12) Lisa: grade E, retirement 0%. At least it hit 45 knots. Another name-stealer.
 * 13) <font color="#ff6060">Matthew : grade A+, retirement <font color="#ff6060">100% . Matthew is the first Category 5 Atlantic hurricane since 2007, and has almost completely annihilated parts of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, as well as the US East Coast. Retirement's a certainty looking at the sheer number of deaths and the severity of damage caused.
 * 14) Nicole: currently active, retirement 10%. Possible major hurricane landfall on Bermuda here.

~ KN2731 {talk} 14:22, October 13, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
There you have it...for now. Ryan1000 21:08, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 1% - Killed a person and caused a little damage in the Azores, on top of being a very rare January hurricane. Not negligible, but not enough for retirement either.
 * Bonnie - 2% - Killed two people and caused some damage in South Carolina from floods, on top of being the second pre-season storm in an Atlantic season in only 4 years. Still not enough for retirement though.
 * Colin - 4% - Earliest 3rd storm and was a little deadlier than Bonnie and Alex, but still rather minor overall.
 * Danielle - 1% - Earliest 4th storm, but Danielle only caused minor impacts in Mexico and probably won't get retired.
 * Earl - 65% - The death toll has been upped to more than 60, mostly in Mexico, and there was at least 250 million in damage (110 million in Belize alone) from Earl, which is rather extensive, though not catastrophic. If the final damage totals turn out to be what I fear they could be (around 1+ billion), then this is probably a guaranteed retirement. It was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Not a complete fail but was a fishspinner nonetheless.
 * Gaston - 1% - Passed over the western Azores as a tropical storm, so it did cause some minor impacts, but it's not enough.
 * Hermine - 23% - 5 deaths and 300 million in damage isn't negligible, but for the the U.S, it's likely not enough. Keep in mind the U.S. did snub a few recent storms like Isaac '12 and Dolly/Fay '08, all of which were more destructive and deadly than Hermine.
 * Ian - 0% - Like Fiona, it wasn't a completely pathetic fail, but...no damage, no deaths, no retirement.
 * Julia - 1% - Didn't expect this to form over Florida, but it wasn't too bad either way.
 * Karl - 1% - Minor effects on Bermuda, but it wasn't anywhere close to Gonzalo, let alone Fay, 2 years ago.
 * Lisa - 0% - Another fishspinning fail, but at least it managed to re-intensify into a TS once before dying.
 * Matthew - 100% - If the 1000 deaths and a billion dollars in damage to Haiti won't get retirement, then as much as, if not more than, 10 billion and several deaths in the U.S. will axe it. Matthew was the costliest storm to hit the U.S. since Sandy, and he is going to be retired, no matter what.
 * Nicole - 35% - This thing ripped across Bermuda as a powerful 120 mph category 3 hurricane, but despite Nicole's intensity when it struck the island, it's bark was worse than it's bite, and it wasn't as severe as Fabian.

iBahan1829's List Of Retirement Candidates
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:04, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) Category 1 Alex: 0.1%: Barely any damage to the Azores. So, Alex will return in 2022.
 * 2) Tropical Storm Bonnie: 0.1%: Like Alex, Bonnie did barely any damage to any land. Regeneration was neat, but this storm ended up weak anyway.
 * 3) Tropical Storm Colin: 1%: Actually did something. Flooded multiple Florida cities and that's pretty much all it did. Debby was worse, but it still wasn't retired. Colin will stay for 2022.
 * 4) Tropical Storm Danielle: 0.1%: Repeat of Alex and Bonnie. Next!
 * 5) Category 1 Earl: 55%: Okay, now we're talking. ~60 deaths!? Holy cow! Bad Earl! On top of that, it caused havoc in Belize! This might actually get retired.
 * 6) Tropical Storm Fiona: 0%: Fiona is equal to fish, so I might as well give this a 0%.
 * 7) Category 3 Gaston: 0%: You call that damage to the Azores? YOU HAVE FAILED! See you in 6 years.
 * 8) Category 1 Hermine: 25%: This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact FLORIDA, and the first hurricane to impact Florida period since Wilma of October 2005 . It did cause considerable damage, but not even nearly as much overall as Matthew. If Isaac wasn't retired, this won't be either.
 * 9) Tropical Storms Ian and Lisa: 0%: Ian = near hurricane that spinned the fish around. Lisa = epic failure.
 * 10) Tropical Storms Julia and Karl: 3%: Did effect land in some way, shape, or form, but not enough to get retired.
 * 11) CATEGORY 5 MATTHEW: 98%: 3(3:3(3:3(383:3(#/#/1?1!#:$6:+))-(=?9?`¶`{|[¥®¥®€™¢[¢¶`¶`{aaaaaaaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! C5! C5! First in nearly an entire decade! But, of course, it had to wreck, destroy, and exteminate every land it came across. The results seen were horrendous this time, words almost cannot describe the damage left in it's wake. 900+ deaths and $5+ billion in damage makes this the first billion dollar hurricane in just about 4 years. As spectacular as it was, damage was done, and flooding problems are still occuring in the Carolinas and Virginia as I am typing this. This will get retured. Good riddence, Matthew.

Allan´s retirement Predictions
1. Alex 0.1%  Even though it was a really good surprise, and had an indirect death,its nothing for it to be retire from the list. So we will see him again in 2022.

2. Bonnie 0.1% She was a fighter not going to doubt it, She even came back from death but its impact in the states were minimal at most. She just tickle some states. The 2 deads will not make the states ask for her, so Sayonara until 2022.

3,Colin 0.1% Damages were even less than Bonnie but he produce double of deads. That .1% its just becausse it affect land because imo it merits a zero.

4. Danielle 0.1% Weakest storm so far in 2016 and it just produce 1 death. Her effects on Mexico were minimal and at most they were overshadow by Earl later on. So see you in 2022 beotch.

5. Earl 65% the real deal of the season so far. His damages in Belize are compare to those of Iris in 2001 it has already produce 100,000 dollars in damage and its not final tally in that country. Earl big chance of retirement comes from its effects in Mexico where it has 52 deads so far and its describe as the worst storm in Puebla´s history. It produce damages to other states too. With the death toll in a country that prides itself from being prepare to this types of disasters it was a hard hit for Mexico´s ego. Imo they will not condone this one to be staying. I am not counting the DR because the fatalities were when Earl was disturbance and not a storm as such it might not count  for choice in retirement.

6 Fiona 0% Meh not a weak ts not a strong one, a fail but not a complete one,Still Fiona is coming back in 2022. She was almost an exact copy of her predecesor in 2010, better luck next time lady.

7 Gaston 0.1% Our first major of the season and the a big high ACE contributor, thanks for that Captain, aside of that effects in the Azores were minimal if any. He will be back, that is for sure.

8 Hermine 40% This will be preliminary until her report comes out with the monetary damage with all damage figures. I am actually generous with Hermine as the states have seen much worse storms than her. 500,000 dollars is not something to laugh about but nothing compare to other storms the States have dealt with. If she had another day like models were predicting these figures would have been much higher but thank God she didnt. Anyhow it was nice to finally have a hurricane with the name Hermine.

9 Ian 0% A fishpinner. Stronger than Fiona but nothing incredible. I actually want this name to fail, didnt fail as I want it but fail in intensity nonetheless. Lol Many were disappointed he didnt follow his predecesors footsteps but imo Ian is a weak name so I did enjoy that he was only a strong moderate ts. Anyways try harder in 2022 little thing, might have luck in that season XD.

10 Julia 0.3% I actually want the name Julia to be used for a strong name, sadly it was just given to a stealer and weak system. One of the most annoying and fighter storms I have track. she didnt want to fail and she was seeing a tunnel to the light were wind shear was low and once the shear start to decrease she died. TDFW. Really frustrating storm will see the damages of this storm once the NHC release her reports. probably minimal though. First tropical storm to form over land that I track though. My first storm to track that became a hurricane overland was Irene.

11 Karl 0.7% Afffected Bermuda and Cape Verdes with rains and breeze but nothing more, it try and try but failed to become a hurricane. What a disappointment. I actually thought this would had been our 5th hurricane of the season, might be upgrade but who knows. See you in 2022 Karl and try harder please next time.

12 Lisa 0.01% Affected cape Verdes  like Karl with showers and low winds but she is a fishpinner and nothing more. like Karl she fight and fight shear and dry air but ultimately succumbing before doing anything worth.Expect her in 2022. Allanjeffs 05:57, September 23, 2016 (UTC)

Isaac's prediction
0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%. -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:25, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 0% - Little damage to Azores.
 * Bonnie - 0% - Less than $1 million in damage.
 * Colin - 0% - Minimal damage.
 * Danielle - 0% - Little damage.
 * Earl - 50% - Over $100 million in damage and 67 deaths, a good possibility.
 * Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Gaston - 0% - " "
 * Hermine - 25% - Very unlikely as not much damage occurred.
 * Ian - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Julia - 0% - Impacts were already felt before warnings were issued.
 * Karl - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Lisa - 0% - " "
 * Matthew - 100% - For Haiti and Cuba alone.
 * Nicole - ?

Owen's prediction
Owen 04:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: 0% - Neat January hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were minor.
 * Bonnie: 0% - Minimal tropical storm and minimal land impact.
 * Colin: 0% - The real problem caused by Colin was flooding, but Debby of 2012 was worse and wasn't retired.
 * Danielle: 0% - Mexico has seen worse.
 * Earl: 50% - I'm giving Earl a 50/50 chance because there has been past hurricanes such as Karl which were ultimately snubbed by Mexico, but my gut feeling is it will go if it's the worst death toll since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Disappointing fish storm that didn't really do much.
 * Gaston - 0% - He was a pretty nice major hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were ultimately minimal at best.
 * Hermine - 25% - I don't forsee Hermine going, despite the fact she was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 11 years. The damages were less than Fay of 2008, which wasn't retired.
 * Ian - 0% - I honestly wish the name went to a much stronger storm this year, but it ended up being a moderate tropical storm that was just a fish.
 * Julia - 0% - Again, it was neat seeing another uncommon thing like her forming overland, but impacts were minor at best in Florida.
 * Karl - 0% - I mean he kept trying his whole life to persist, but never managed to become a hurricane and didn't affect Bermuda much but he's gonna be back.
 * Lisa: 0% - Fishspinner Lisa will be spinning the way to return in 2022.
 * Matthew: 90% - Just saw a new report that insured U.S. damages will likely fall around $6 billion. However, the totals are usually double that like Ryan had said. Looks like Matthew may make his way into the top 10 costliest Atlantic hurricanes list after including all the damages on his journey. If no other country requests (as Haiti likely can't request because of their representative issue), the U.S. and Cuba are still very likely to request retirement of the name.
 * Nicole: 40% - I don't want to place the odds too low or too high, so I think a 40% shot is fair enough. I'll mark it futher up if the damage totals come close to Fabian and are in fact more than Gonzalo.

Jdcomix's prediction

 * Alex - <font color="#669">1%  - Surprising January HURRICANE that caused minimal damage in the Azores. See you in 2022.
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">2%  - Caused minimal damage in South Carolina, but refused to die. See you in 2022 as well.
 * Colin - <font color="#449">10%  - Colin pls, you didn't even look tropical. Despite its atrocious appearence, it still killed 6 people, which warrants a retirement chance of 10%. Has a small chance of going, but will likely be back in 2022.
 * Danielle - <font color="#449">5%  - Bay of Campeche failicia that killed one person. Damage is still unknown, so I'm saying 5% chance.
 * Earl -  90%  - Surprisingly fierce storm that devastated southeastern Mexico. It's very likely that Earl won't return for 2022, but Mexico didn't retire Karl or Matthew in 2010, so it's possible it could stay.
 * Fiona -  0%  - LOL
 * Gaston -  0%  - Fishspinning major and the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in years. Also created memes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHDtEd87gwM
 * Hermine - <font color="#390">35%  - Broke the record-long Florida hurricane drought, but only caused 5 deaths. Likely to return.
 * Ian - 5% - Hit ICELAND as an extratropical cyclone, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022.
 * Julia - 5% - What an unusual track. Could have caused moderate damage in South Carolina, but retirement seems unlikely.
 * Karl - 5% - This was the most frustrating storm in years for obvious reasons. Impacted Bermuda minorly
 * Lisa -  0%  - See Fiona.
 * Matthew - <font color="#500">100%  - Retired. If you aren't knocked off of the list for 2022, the NHC is on crack.

Whiplash's prediction

 * Alex: 0% - No major land effects.
 * Bonnie: 0% - Negligible.
 * Colin: 0% - See you in 2022.
 * Danielle: 0% - See above.
 * Earl: 45% Interesting corundum I suspect retirement could be either way but I'm leaning slightly towards not being retired reminds me of Dolly, Alex and Karl in recent years and I think he will be staying based on Mexico's past behavior.
 * Fiona: 0% - Lol
 * Gaston: 0% - Strong but harmless and forgettable in the middle of the Atlantic.
 * Hermine: 10% - The U.S. has seen much worse and not retired the name.
 * Ian: 0% - Pretty rare we get I fails but this certainly was one.
 * Julia: 0% - Interesting formation location but otherwise not noteworthy.
 * Karl: 0% - See you in 2022.
 * Lisa: 0% - See above.
 * Matthew: 100% - Goodbye Matthew don't even need to see what you are going to do to Florida you have already destroyed so much in the Caribbean.
 * Nicole: ?? - I have decided to revise her as she could possibly whack Bermuda as a major. Depends what she does if she becomes another Fabian she could be going off the list. So I will reserve judgement on her for now and see how things develop.

--Whiplash (talk) 23:04, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Eric's retirement chances

 * Alex - 0% - Awesome off-season hurricane, but didn't do much to land.
 * Bonnie - 5% - Some damage, mostly to South Carolina, but certainly not enough for retirement.
 * Colin - 3% - Although he caused six deaths, he barely caused any damage.
 * Danielle - 1% - One death and minimal damage. She's staying for 2022.
 * Earl - 65% - 67 deaths along with over 250 million in damage sounds pretty retirement worthy to me.
 * Fiona - 0% - :/
 * Gaston - 0% - Fun major hurricane to track, and fortunately resulted in no damage or fatalities.
 * Hermine - 25% - 300 million in damage sure is nothing to joke about, but only five deaths makes retirement unlikely.
 * Ian - 0% - Meh.
 * Julia - 0% - Julia was on some dumb sh!t, but she isn't going anywhere. Nice try though.
 * Karl - 0% - I was so upset that he didn't reach hurricane status. Really Karl?
 * Lisa - 0% - Who?
 * Matthew - 100% - Over 5 BILLION in damage and over 1,000 deaths give Matthew a certain chance of retirement.
 * Nicole - 10% - Caused only some damage on Bermuda, and no fatalities. Nicole will be back in 2022.

<font face="Verdena"> Eric  01:30, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

A2.0's retirement forecast
Going to make this simple.


 * Alex - 2% - Maybe it can get retired because of its early existence, but to be honest, it is highly unlikely.
 * Bonnie to Danielle - 0% - NO. JUST NO.
 * Earl - 55% - Mexico's deadliest since Stan, Belize's costliest since Iris, but this storm got overshadowed by that beast in October (a.k.a. Matthew)
 * Fiona to Gaston - 0% - See you in 2022!
 * Hermine - 30% - Florida impacts are relatively minimal compared to previous storms; I don't think Hermine will go.
 * Ian to Lisa - 0% - The fishspinner squad will be spinning again in 2022.
 * Matthew - 99.9% - SHOULD BE RETIRED. Matthew is the deadliest storm to hit Haiti since Jeanne, and also the deadliest to strike NC since Floyd. Hopefully those hard facts are enough to retire Matthew, however, there's this very small chance that this won't be retired because of Haiti's reluctance to retire names, though the U.S. damage estimate and fatality totals seal its fate.
 * Nicole - 35% - ( I really thought this was supposed to be another fishspinner, but as of this posting, this may be hitting Bermuda soon. Hopefully not as bad as Fabian or even Gonzalo '14. ) And this storm hit Bermuda. Fortunately not as bad as Fabian, and if the cost of damages aren't that high, Nicole may pull off a Gonzalo 2.0.

By the way, this my first time to do this after many years. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:27, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC finally released the TCR for Alex today, but there's no change to its peak intensity (still at 85 mph, 981 mbars); however it was downgraded to a 65 mph storm on it's landfall in the Azores island of Terceira in reanalysis, from 70 mph operationally. Ryan1000 20:49, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Although Alex's peak intensity was not changed, something cool about the TCR was that it was found to have formed a full day earlier than originally thought. This means the 2016 Atlantic season officially started on January 12, not January 13. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 00:19, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Danielle is out. Little change, if any. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:11, September 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Bonnie is out. No change with peak intensity, but it was found to have regenerated 15 hours earlier, and it was a tropical storm for a little longer than originally believed. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 19:57, October 17, 2016 (UTC)

Replacement names
Earl is looking to be a surprisingly good candidate for retirement at this point, given the rather high death toll in Mexico and damage in Belize, despite its low intensity. So...if Earl does get retired, what do you think it should be replaced by? Some of my suggestions are here:
 * Edvin
 * Edgar
 * Elan
 * Eli(e)
 * Elvin
 * Emmett
 * Emile
 * Elliot
 * Elric
 * Evan
 * Ethan
 * Elwin
 * Elwood
 * Elson

Like with Joaquin last year, there are a lot of good "E" names available to replace Earl given that 1) relatively few "E" names have been retired, and 2) none of the "E" retirees we have had were male names. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd go with either Edgar or Evan. T  G  10:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * My vote goes to Elliott, spelled the same way as Elliott Smith. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Edgar and Elvis would be some good replacements. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Mexico's track record might mean this could have a lower shot of retirement (especially since they snubbed storms such as Alex and Karl), but I personally think it has a pretty good shot at getting retired, since it was the deadliest hurricane since Sandy and caused at least $100 million in damage (in Belize alone). Once Mexico damage tolls come out, I won't be surprised if the toll skyrockets past $1 billion. My favorite replacement names out of Ryan's list are Edgar, Elliot, Evan, and Ethan. I also suggest Emmanuel, and as Bob said above, Elvis (a storm named after Elvis Presley would be epic!). <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't really like having the name "Elvis" on the lists because of "Hurricane Elvis" in 2003, which was a deadly derecho that struck Memphis with 100 mph winds. T  G  10:56, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Steve, The thing is that I think Mexico didnt retired Karl because it didnt caused a lot of deads like Earl has done. Its now being said in the news that this have been the worst storm on record for Puebla in terrms of death toll. Maybe the damage of Karl was extensive but I am pretty sure many Mexicans do not remember him because the death toll was low and most damage was concentrated in Veracruz. Meanwhile Earl have caused trouble in Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Queretaro and Hidalgo to mention some. Being Mexico the most affected of the countries in the path of Earl I believe its replacement will be in Spanish so Elias, Efrain,Emanuel or Edgar are good candidates for replacement. If Belize is the one to request it for retirement the name might be one usually use in English. Allanjeffs 17:58, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Here are some more "E" names: Andros 1337 (talk) 21:11, August 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Edwin
 * Elmo
 * Emilio
 * Enrico
 * Enzo
 * Emanuel
 * Emanuele
 * Evaristo
 * Evandro
 * Edison
 * Edmond
 * Elton
 * Emery
 * Eustace


 * I would really hate seeing Emanuel on the list due to confusion with the very similar name, Manuel. T  G  11:00, August 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I was going to mention that too, I doubt Em(m)anuel will be chosen to replace Earl, especially since the country most affected by Earl (Mexico) retired Manuel just 3 years ago. My favorite choice would be Evan, but if Mexico submits Spanish names then Esteban would be my pick. Emilio and Enrico are also possible but they could be confused with Emilia (the female version of the name, and scheduled for the 2018 EPac season) and Enrique (used last year in the EPac). Ryan1000 04:47, August 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * With Joaquin last year, we've seen that replacement names don't have to match the country or the language of the retired name. Edwin or Edvin, Edgar, Edison or Elvis sound more likely from the NHC. Unless the NHC decides to continue with names of popular movie/TV characters and goes with Elmo. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:14, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it's not a universal rule of thumb (Felix '07 hit Nicaragua hard, a Spanish-speaking country, but they chose Fernand, the French version of Fernando, to replace him), but it's usually more likely for said affected country to submit names of their language, and the WMO usually picks the first of the 3-4 names that are submitted to them for replacement. Ryan1000 03:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

While Earl is a likely retirement candidate, we also have Hermine and Matthew as possibilities, so here are some potential replacement names:

Female H Names
 * Helga
 * Heather
 * Holly
 * Haley
 * Helena
 * Harriet
 * Heidi
 * Henley

Male M Names
 * Mark
 * Marcus
 * Macario
 * Mariano
 * Maurizio
 * Michelangelo
 * Mackenzie
 * Martin
 * Mickey
 * Moriarty
 * Mars
 * Mercury
 * Merrick
 * Morris
 * Malcolm
 * Mervyn
 * Merv
 * Marcelino
 * Marley
 * Mercer
 * Merlin
 * Miles

How are these names? Andros 1337 (talk) 18:35, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * I highly doubt Hermine will be retired, it wasn't that bad for the U.S, but Matthew is shaping up to be a fairly likely, if not certain, retirement candidate as it nears Florida as a strong category 4 hurricane, on top of the major damage he caused in the Caribbean. My personal picks to replace Matthew would be Mark/Marcus, Miles, Martin, or Morris. Michelangelo sounds a bit too close to Michael (scheduled for 2018), and I doubt the NHC will suggest a hurricane name also shared with a planet, like Mars or Mercury. Other than that, most of those names for Matthew sound good. Ryan1000 19:45, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * I would add Mason, Montgomery, Milan, Milo, Maurice, Matteo as other possible replacement names. --Whiplash (talk) 23:09, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh and Micah/Mika too. --Whiplash (talk) 23:11, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matteo is probably out, since it's Italian for Matthew. Same goes with Mateo (Spanish form of Matthew). Andros 1337 (talk) 01:11, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * I just want to mention that many of you are thinking that because of the damage it caused in Haiti it will be retired, I would like to say that may not be the case. As you may know many storms that affected only Haiti are not retired even if they caused a lot of damage and death. Dr Masters in an earlier post he comment that Haiti never send a representative to the NMO  so no request is made. That is why Gordon and Hanna were not retired even if they should have. He said that economic reasons might be why Haiti never sends a representative. I do agree that Matthew is going to be retired but because of its damage in Cuba, Bahamas and possible the USA but not because of Haiti requesting the name, so until Haiti starts sending representatives which I doubt it will be soon base on how its economy I might not put a high chance of retirement to a storms that only affects Haiti. Allanjeff 06:12, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * For Earl, I think Elvis or Edgar will do. For Hermine (though this is now unlikely), Helga, Horatia, Hester, Holly, Hestia or Hope are the possible replacements. For Matthew: Martin sounds okay for me, but it's very similar to Marty (which is in the eastern Pacific list). Maybe Marvin, Morgan, Melvin, Micah, Miles, Morris or Marcel/Marcelo will do. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:08, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am picking Holly or Helena, or maybe Harriet for Hermine (the retirement of this particular storm is unlikely however). For Matthew, which is a MUCH more likely retirement candidate, I am picking Mark, Marcus, Michelangelo, Morris, Malcolm, Melvin, or Miles. I highly doubt the NHC would name tropical cyclones after planets; the retired name in a different language (such as Matteo) is highly doubtful as well. Hermine is not really deserving of retirement whatsoever - what I really want is Matthew and Earl to be retired, as they deserve it, without a doubt. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:28, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * Maybe the NHC would consider naming tropical cyclones after plants. How does Hurricane Milkweed sound to everybody? Hurricane Mulberry? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:02, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * For the record Anonymous, the WMO has replaced Atlantic hurricane names with similar variants of that name already in use in the EPac, and vise versa, multiple times before. There's no reason they can't do it again, it just can't be the exact same name on both lists. They did it to David in 1979; it was replaced by Danny, which can be considered a variation of the name Daniel, which was used in the EPac the year before and both names are still in use today. They also did it to Floyd, which was replaced by Franklin while Frank was still in use in the EPac just one year before, and both of those names are also still in use today. Julian, the replacement of Joaquin, is the male version of the name Julia and it's somewhat similar to the spanish name Julio, on the EPac list. Lastly, they did it to Kenna by replacing it with Karina while Katrina was on the Atlantic lists (though Katrina got retired on it's next usage). Ryan1000 22:18, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * I agree with that, Ryan. Maybe Martin will be a good choice to replace Matthew. Anyway, I want to add the name Celia to the facts you stated. Celia, which was retired in the Atlantic in 1970, but is in the current eastern Pacific hurricane list; in fact, it was used this season and is likely to be used again in 2022. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:30, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, the EPac naming lists weren't changed to their modern versions until 1978, which was after Celia (and Hilda and Dora) got retired in the Atlantic, I was referring to variations of replacement names on both lists after 1979. I'm not sure if the NHC will suggest a hurricane name that was formerly retired in the other basin, since the EPac naming lists included Celia, Hilda, and Dora when they were first drawn up by the WMO, they didn't replace formerly retired names like the examples I mentioned. But we don't know for sure, what we do know is when the NHC submits their report for the WMO, the WMO usually picks the first of the 3 or 4 replacement names suggested. Ryan1000 04:18, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Well, Mark seems too similar to Marco (which will appear in 2020). Max is in next year's EPac list, so that's out. What's looking more likely are (mentioned above) Martin, Morris, Moses, Malcolm, or even Marshall or Miguel. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:48, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Mark can still be used. Look what happened with Joaquin of last year, it was replaced with Julian which is very similar to Julia which was used this year. T  G  10:43, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Eric (my name!) could also replace Earl, as it is spelt differently from Erick in the E. Pac. And I think Miles should replace Matthew. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  11:59, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hate to say it Eric, but because Eric and Erick have the same pronunciation (as far as I am aware), I doubt that the NHC will choose Eric to replace Earl. :/
 * I said a couple months ago that Elliott was my top pick as Earls replacement, and I still stand by that; Mark, Myles, and Marshall are my top choices for replacing Matthew. (And for the record, though I doubt Hermine will be retired, my top replacement pick would be Heather.) --Dylan' (HurricaneMaker99) 17:01, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I doubt they will, too. :/ Edwin or Elliott seem like good replacement names to me. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  01:36, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Maybe I'd go for Marvin, Mort, Maurice/Morris, Mickey/Mick, Mac/Mack or Marcel (to replace Matthew), Edwin, Elliott or Elias/Eli (for Earl), and if Hermine would be retired (which is now highly unlikely), Harriet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:41, October 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * My pick for Earl would be Edgar, or Elliot. And Mark, Martin, or Mort to replace Matthew. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 01:46, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * My picks for replacement names are Eli, Heather, and Milo. I doubt Hermine is going to be retired, but in the possibility she is, I agree with Dylan's pick of Heather. Owen 03:04, October 16, 2016 (UTC)