Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Well, the 2012 Pacific hurricane season hasn't yet begun, but I do believe we will have a 12-17 storm season, a 5-9 hurricane season, and a 3-4 major hurricane season in 2012's PHS. =) Ryan1000 01:09, July 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * 13 - 18 named storms, 9 - 11 hurricanes, 3 - 6 major hurricanes.10Q.INVEST 12:16, September 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Later in the year I will put my prediction to see how it goes.Allanjeffs 03:18, January 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * 14 days before the season officially starts.... :D Cyclone10  E-Mail  20:14, May 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ten more days! :D -- Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:46, May 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * We have an Aoi in the estern pacific I am not good making headers so please can someone put it please in the moring it has 10% of development right now.Allanjeffs 05:57, June 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ok I added it.

Pre-season predictions
So, what are all you guys pre-season predictions? Mines is 15-7-4, going low this year since I over anticipated the last two years. YE Tropical Cyclone  01:41, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

14-8-5. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:21, March 31, 2012 (UTC)

probably more because it looks like a neuter year.Allanjeffs 22:51, March 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * 14 is average in a neutral year. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:38, March 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * 14 to 17 name stoms.Allanjeffs 05:35, April 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Because the latest CSU forecast calls for ENSO this Summer/Fall, I'm going for 18-10-6. Ryan1000 20:06, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:SSW of Manzillo
A large disturbed area of weather that has been targeted by models the past few days is now garnering organization and has a 10% chance of formation by the NHC. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:17, June 9, 2012 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested. Yqt1001 14:35, June 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * I've been looking at this for about a day now. Seems like GFS quite likes this system, but it's the only one that really really does. SSTs are still really favorable for development. Honestly, I don't expect that much... at most I see a depression or a weak TS. I expect much much more from the next one behind it. Darren 23 CWC 14:50, June 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * You know what, I'm mistaken. I think this has a decent shot at becoming a decent tropical system. I just don't feel confident about it since ECMWF is not really catching on with developing this system. Darren 23 CWC 15:23, June 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * ECMWF is not th best model of all I think that with the upgrades the GFS is the best model for now.Allanjeffs 16:08, June 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Here comes Carlotta...I think we'll see a hurricane (potentially a MH) from this system, but on the bright side, it's well out to sea. It won't be heading toward any land anytime. And future Daniel (behind this system) will probrably parallel/stall off of Mexico if it forms, but that's a long ways out in the future. Ryan1000 17:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * This is the storm that a bunch of models have been targeting a lot lately... it looks really good now. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:11, June 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think both Carlotta and Daniel would become major hurricanes remember how does this names have been good in intensifying in the past when they were used.Allanjeffs 17:59, June 9, 2012 (UTC)

30% :D Cyclone10  E-Mail  18:00, June 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's winding up really well. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm thinking a peak of anywhere from 105 to 125 mph from this storm (Carlotta). Daniel might be the same or stronger. There were only two incarnations of Daniel since 1978-the 1988 and 1994 Daniels, that did not become major hurricanes. Ryan1000 20:32, June 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Could definitely see this reaching major hurricane status its in a favorable enviroment maybe Daniel too but I think it will be trouble for Mexico if it realize.Allanjeffs 20:46, June 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * The environment it is in is becoming conclusive for strengthening. I think it will head west and the curve back into the Baja California. While it will be moving into 30-40 kt wind shear in about 2-3 days, the shear dropped 10 kts in the past 24 hours, and if it continues to do so, it should be around 15-25 kt wind shear when future Carlotta kicks in. Divergence and convergence is stacking up and it has developed a nice 850mb vorticy. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:05, June 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Doubt it will re-curve back, it is June, not October. I'm thinking storng TS. YE Tropical Cyclone  21:10, June 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Still at 30%. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:05, June 10, 2012 (UTC)

ASCAT reveals that the disturbance is starting to get something resembling a circulation together. Yqt1001 03:06, June 10, 2012 (UTC)

The intensity of future Carlotta can be from cat 1 all the way to cat 4.Allanjeffs 04:11, June 10, 2012 (UTC)

50% now we may have a TD as early tomorrow. Allanjeffs 05:49, June 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Bumped up to 60% this morning... steadily becoming better organized and will likely become Carlotta. In addition, the floaters are finally up for 93E, if you want to use them.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:20, June 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Remains at 60% as the organization does not change much. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:00, June 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC has issued an TCFA. Cyclone10 E-Mail  18:38, June 10, 2012 (UTC)

93E is a very reluctant storm, and thus remains at 60%, but it is in a pretty good environment. Its postioned under an anticyclone and is currently in low shear, but convergence and divergence have stepped down a bit. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:42, June 11, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 50%Allanjeffs 05:47, June 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * Its even further down to 30%. The time frame on 93E is running out - it should enter an area of shear very soon. The anticyclone that favored development is now off of the invest. It it forms, it had to be either yesterday or this morning. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:10, June 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * I doubt this invest will become Three-E. It's losing it's chance very fast. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:39, June 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * Andrew! Where have you been? Anyways the timeframe for 3E is going down. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:36, June 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * I guess I spoke to soon...It's not looking very likely at all now that we will see even a depression from this system. First time I've seen a 60% invest bust in a while. Ryan1000 16:16, June 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some models are developing this system later on so it might be dead right now but we need to watch it for the next three days.Allanjeffs 16:32, June 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * down to 10%Allanjeffs 17:48, June 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * Whoa there... it literally hit a brick wall. Right when it reached 20 kt wind shear it just poofed. Supposed to return back to Baja. The pressure gradient has gone down the chute and convergence is off.-- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:43, June 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * Whammy kablammy! Now at near 0%. Likely not to regenerate. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:49, June 11, 2012 (UTC)

Completely off NHC now. I really expected more from this. Ryan1000 05:36, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Great victory for the ECMWF and other models who really expected nearly nothing from this. Puts into question GFS which seems to have been overestimating many storms lately and jumping the gun. Darren 23 CWC 16:34, June 12, 2012 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
20% on NHC. YE Tropical Cyclone  14:51, June 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * MJO is also expected to surge into EPAC Thursday-Saturday and that's when we might get another storm. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:06, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is the big one. Models have been fairly in agreement with this system over the past week. The EPAC TWD has also been discussing this system for about 5 days or so. I fully expect development from this. Darren 23 CWC 16:37, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * If development occurs, it may be a little slow. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:22, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Nah, I don't see any reason why not? YE Tropical  Cyclone  17:31, June 12, 2012 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
As a reaction to the MJO ready to surge into the EPAC... say hello to 95E.INVEST, currently west of 94E. If you saw two splotches on the models... this is the other one. CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 16:55, June 12, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe this will become Daniel in the near future.Allanjeffs 16:58, June 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Too close to 94E IMO. Looks like a mess right now. YE Tropical  Cyclone  17:32, June 12, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:24, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Not even close.
 * Bud - 5% - It brought beneficial rain.

Mine:


 * Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but had no impact on land.
 * Bud - 2% - Fun storm to follow, but not enough damage.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Mine


 * Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.Allanjeffs 15:43, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.Allanjeffs 15:18, May 26, 2012 (UTC)

Well, it's early, but i'll make mine: Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement.
 * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you.