Forum:2019-20 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season

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AOI: Near Mascarene Islands
A new AOI has appeared on Météo-France's outlook near the Mascarene Islands. Despite good outflow, the agency notes that dry air and wind shear will likely prevent any significant development. However, the Mascarene Islands could still receive heavy precipitation from this system. There is a currently a low chance of formation over the next two days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:25, January 3, 2020 (UTC)


 * It's also located just east of Madagascar's coast. For now, I don't think this will become much. ~  Steve 🎉   Happy  2020!  🎆  00:57, January 4, 2020 (UTC)


 * RSMC La Réunion has removed this AOI from their cyclogenesis map. However, they are still giving the system a very low chance of formation on their Daily Outlook. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:20, January 4, 2020 (UTC)


 * Météo France no longer anticipates that this AOI will become tropical in the next several days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:32, January 6, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Near Northwestern Madagascar
An AOI has popped up in this region with a "very low" chance from Friday. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:17, January 15, 2020 (UTC)
 * Now there are multiple (three?) AoIs on the MFR's map. -- Java Hurricane  16:45, January 16, 2020 (UTC)
 * And those AOIs don't appear to include this one. This AOI has moved to the north of Amber Cape and is weakening, with development no longer likely. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:07, January 16, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Mozambique Channel
The first of three new AOIs, this is code yellow in the Mozambique Channel, more south than where the above AOI was located yesterday. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:07, January 16, 2020 (UTC)

Now code orange on the outlook. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  02:31, January 19, 2020 (UTC)

95S.INVEST
Invested, still orange on MFR and nonexistent on JTWC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:09, January 20, 2020 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow on JTWC, still orange on MFR. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:35, January 21, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Off Eastern Madagascar
The second of three AOIs, currently code yellow just off the eastern coast of Madagascar. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:07, January 16, 2020 (UTC)

Now code orange on the outlook, and the area of interest has shifted to over and near the Mascarenes Islands. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  02:31, January 19, 2020 (UTC)

Back down to code yellow on the map, although the daily outlook also says it has a moderate chance starting on Thursday. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:45, January 20, 2020 (UTC)

AOI: Far Northeast of Mascarenes Islands
The last of three AOIs, this is code yellow out in the middle of the Indian Ocean. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:07, January 16, 2020 (UTC)
 * This is now code orange on MFR's outlook. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:36, January 17, 2020 (UTC)

94S.INVEST
The invest should be this AOI - it's still NE of where MFR shows it developing but it's expected to move SW over the next few days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:24, January 18, 2020 (UTC)
 * Yes it is the AOI. Now code yellow on JTWC, remains code orange on MFR's outlook. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  02:31, January 19, 2020 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued by JTWC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:09, January 20, 2020 (UTC)
 * A most singular invest this. A few ship reports indicate that the storm has gale-force winds, but ASCAT data indicates that the low is still a gale-force Open trough. TCFA is still up on the JTWC website, but I personally doubt if anything more than a Failicia will come out of this. Though conditions are favourable (low shear, 30°C waters), models don't expect much development out of this low. --'' Java Hurricane  16:40, January 21, 2020 (UTC)

AoI:Ex-Claudia
Not on MFR's map yet, but it is worth noting that models redevelop Claudia over the next few days into something strong in the middle of nowhere. -- Java Hurricane  03:57, January 18, 2020 (UTC)
 * And all of a sudden, the models have backed out from these predictions. Looks like Claudia is done, once and for all. -- Java Hurricane  04:16, January 18, 2020 (UTC)