Forum:2016 Pacific typhoon season

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Well, it's 2016 in the WPAC's time zone, and it looks like 9C may move into this basin, giving us an early start. Welcome to the 2016 typhoon season! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:31, December 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * Gotta love how both CPAC and ATL could start faster than WPAC.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:39, January 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * Is it unusual that we have yet to see a single tropical cyclone in the WPAC in the middle of May? Jdcomix (talk) 16:08, May 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 16W
Formed not that long ago. This is a potential for Meranti and it doesn't look good for China. T G  20:31, September 8, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Meranti
Finally named, per JMA. Meranti could still slam into the most populated region of Taiwan as an intense typhoon. T G  13:08, September 10, 2016 (UTC)

Typhoon Meranti (Ferdie)
This is now a category 1 typhoon with a pressure of 950 millibars. Winds 90 mph according to JMA, and 85 mph according to JTWC. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 16:40, September 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * I have a bad feeling about this storm in its future. T  G  19:45, September 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is currently a cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and forecast to become a strong 4 or even 5 aimed directly at Taiwan, just like Nepartak earlier this year. Definitely something to watch out for. Ryan1000 20:42, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

Officially a super typhoon, with winds of 130 knots per JTWC. Forecast to pass just south of Taiwan. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:21, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * New advisory pins this as a 180 mph, 905 mbar cat 5 super typhoon, making this is a very dangerous storm on par with Nepartak. It's currently forecast to clip southern Taiwan before moving into China, but if Meranti passes south of Taiwan, it may be a cat 3 or stronger when it hits mainland China, which means this may have a much better chance of retirement than Nepartak down the road. Ryan1000 14:06, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is not good. Taiwan doesn't need another intense typhoon after Nepartak.  I hope people get out of this things way.  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 20:59, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * The JMA and JTWC differ very much on the path of Meranti; the JTWC expects it to move over southern Taiwan before hitting China, but the JMA makes it miss southern Taiwan completely before moving into the Luzon Strait and South China Sea, then into or very near Hong Kong as a strong typhoon in 3-4 days. Ryan1000 22:46, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now up to 185 mph and a pressure reading of 898 millibars was recorded in this thing, making it the strongest tropical cyclone recorded worldwide in 2016. If this thing follows the JMA's forecast and doesn't hit Taiwan, it could be one of China's worst typhoons in years, unless it rapidly weakens before it makes landfall. Ryan1000 03:04, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * 185 mph, and that 898 millibar pressure reading make this the strongest super typhoon since Haiyan. This is not good, people in China need to be preparing.  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 10:30, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Meranti is getting quite large after a possible eyewall replacement. People in Luzon and Taiwan need to be careful too. Meranti is now forecast by both JMA and JTWC to pass just to the south of Taiwan and make landfall in China. This may not be good, as impacts will be more widespread. On another note, Meranti looks beautiful on satellite imagery, and I'm surprised JMA hasn't given this a sub-900 hPa pressure. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:49, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * KN2731, the JMA only estimates the intensity of typhoons using their own Dvorak technique that goes in milibar intervals of 5 and their scale only estimates intensity based on sattelite imagery, the 898 millibar reading I mentioned from before came from an offshore buoy, which is for all intents and purposes more reliable than a mere sattelite estimate, also this thing passed T8.0 on the dvorak scale and may actually be at 200-205 mph right now, on par with the intensity of Haiyan and Patricia. Haiyan, which was only estimated to peak at 895 mbars by the JMA scale, had an unofficial pressure reading of 858 millibars from the JTWC just before it made landfall, if that was official and confirmed it would've beaten Tip. Anyways, the intensity of Meranti has levelled off a bit since it hit 185 last night, but it appears to be keeping its organization, if not getting stronger, also it's heading more west than north and is fairly certain to miss Taiwan to the south by now. However, the JMA takes this monster storm directly towards the Chinese city of Shantou (home to 5.5 million people) as a super typhoon in 3 days. This is not good for China. At all. Ryan1000 11:22, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, the JMA now puts 10-min winds at 120 knots and a minimum pressure of 890 hPa. Officially the strongest WPac storm since Megi 2010 going by JMA's pressure, though I agree that Haiyan was likely stronger than what the JMA gives. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:01, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Because the JMA uses 10-minute winds, the only category 5 storm in their best track by 10-minute winds is Tip, but still, this thing is unbelievably powerful and looks like it'll be passing through the Luzon Strait later today, just south of Taiwan, but they could still get hit hard. If Meranti holds on to cat 5 when it hits China, I can only imagine how bad it's going to be for them... Ryan1000 14:14, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Sadly, Meranti could still strengthen before it makes landfall. I won't be surprised if it manages to have a pressure 880 or 885 millibars in the next advisory. T  G  20:37, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Meranti appears to have weakened actually, but still it's very powerful, it's probably at 165-175 mph right now, but it's not expected to fully cross southern Taiwan, but insteand just graze southern Taiwan before hitting China. It'll weaken a bit due to interaction with Taiwan, and may not make a cat 5 landfall in China, but it wouldn't surprise me if Meranti is at least a cat 4 when it arrives in China. Ryan1000 20:52, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Think again... instead of 165 mph, try 165 knots. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:03, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Oh my... this is too powerful!!! Everyone in the path of this storm should be preparing right now. This doesn't look good at all and is one of the scariest storms I've seen lately. It could be very devastating... :O ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:31, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Woah, Meranti just shoved my words down my throat, it looked like it was undergoing an ERC but the intensity just kept going up. Fortunately, it's now down to 180 mph as it clips southern Taiwan, but unless this thing miraculously collapses before hitting mainland China, they're probably in store for their most apocalyptic typhoon in many years. Ryan1000 03:42, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Meranti(2nd time)
The good: Meranti is now a tropical storm with a 990 mbar pressure.

The bad: Meranti slam dunked China as a C3-C4.

The ugly: The word ugly could be used to describe the possible damage left by Meranti in China.

Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:27, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Remnants of Meranti
Currently extratropical or something. 15 fatalities, quite a bit of damage, strongest typhoon to hit Fujian since China started keeping records and strongest typhoon since Haiyan give Meranti a decent shot at retirement. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:33, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * A bit late, but this storm was incredible. It became the strongest storm recorded worldwide during 2016, surpassing Winston. Meranti unfortunately caused $2.61 billion in damage (USD) and 30 fatalities, giving it a decent shot at being retired. ~  Steve    Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:09, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 18W
We didn't get 17W up in time before it died, but anyways, this is expected to follow Meranti, and possibly reach a similar intensity, but it's expected to turn further north down the road. Could eventually threaten Japan or the Koreas. Ryan1000 01:31, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Malakas
Now a TS. Forecast to eventually become a cat 3 and weaken as it moves towards Japan. Ryan1000 22:37, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Typhoon Malakas (Gener)
Now a typhoon. In my opinion, Malakas could strengthen into a C4 before making landfall and weaken in Japan. T G  20:32, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Malakas has been taking quite a lot of time to pull itself together, but we could see some steady intensification soon as a pinhole eye has formed. Hopefully this won't be too devastating for Taiwan and Japan. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:07, September 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Like Meranti, this came fairly close to Taiwan, but it turned away before it made landfall, and now it'll be racing northeast towards southern Japan as a strong cat 1 or TS. Ryan1000 01:20, September 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Well right now it's barrelling straight for Japan as a Category 3 with 1-min winds of 105 knots, 10-min winds of 85 knots and a pressure of 945 hPa. Not looking good. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:23, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * According to Weather Underground, Malakas apparently weakened to a 115 mph cat 3 typhoon just before hitting the southernmost tip of Japan, but it still has the potential to cause some serious damage there, and with this landfall intensity, 2015 2016 is the second consecutive year with a cat 3 or stronger landfall in Japan, with Goni also hitting them as a cat 3 last year. Ryan1000 16:48, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Ryan, you mean 2016. :P Malakas doesn't look too destructive so far, hopefully it stays this way. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:12, September 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Ah, I mistyped that, meant to say that though. Malakas wasn't much bigger than Man-Yi of 2007, a 110 mph cat 2 landfalling storm in this same general area in July, hopefully Malakas isn't much different regarding impacts. Ryan1000 02:46, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Malakas (2nd time)
Malakas has weakened to a TS by the JMA and JTWC, and should be gone soon as it continues to rake Japan. The flooding in Kyushu looks quite bad, and more than 114,000 people there have lost power. Fortunately there haven't been any reported fatalities. A few 24-hour rainfall records have been broken though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:17, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 19W
This is currently East-Northeast of Southern Vietnam in the South China Sea, and it's unlikely to become much as it heads WNW. Ryan1000 01:31, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rai
So, it managed to take a name off the list before moving into Vietnam. Meh, the JTWC doesn't even consider this a TS. Ryan1000 22:37, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Remnants of Rai
I really hoped Rai would be used for a strong fish-spinner, but that was not the case this time. T G  20:34, September 13, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Models wrecking Taiwan again
The GFS, ECMWF and several other models show yet another powerful typhoon hitting or brushing Taiwan next week. Seems like this season just likes to take down Taiwan, which has already braved two super typhoons: Nepartak at 130 knots, and Meranti at 165 knots. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:24, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section because we are technically halfway through the season, and we've had several minor storms.

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, 0.01% , 1% , 5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 25% , 30% , 35% , 40% , 45% , 50% , 55% , 60% , 65% , 70% , 75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

Overall summary:
 * Ambo: 0% - The storm didn't cause any damage or fatalities.
 * Nepartak: <font color="#FD0">60% - A very powerful first storm that devastated parts of Eastern China, but it didn't really stand out compared to the floods which prevented the chance to be higher.
 * Butchoy: 0% - Didn't even touch the Philippines.
 * Lupit: 0% - Even I didn't think anything could be worse than Felicia.
 * Mirinae: 10% - Caused at least $289 million and five fatalities, but that doesn't warrant any retirement.
 * Nida: <font color="#449">5% - Nida was originally feared by Hong Kong at one point, before it caused minor impacts.
 * Carina: <font color="#669">1% - Carina brought minor impacts to the Philippines, but it didn't meet any requirements for retirement.
 * Omais: <font color="#449">5% - The start of the train of storms that kept tracking near Japan. Omais only caused minor damage, if any.
 * Conson: <font color="#449">5% - The same as Omais, tracked near Japan. Minor damage, if any.
 * Chanthu: <font color="#449">5% - Part of the Japan train of storms.
 * Dianmu: 10% - Southern China got some impacts from this. Luckily, they were minor.
 * Mindulle: <font color="#449">5% - A very odd typhoon that never reached C1 strength, however, it did cause damage in Japan.
 * Lionrock: <font color="#C00">95% - 157 fatalities and high amounts of damage from this storm can make Lionrock go for sure.
 * Dindo: 0% - Didn't impact the Philippines.
 * Kompasu: <font color="#669">1% - Kompasu was kind of a fail, but it hit Japan so...
 * Namtheun: 0% - No damage in Japan whatsoever.
 * Enteng: 0% - Dindo 2.0.
 * Malou: 0% - Malou was Lupit 2.0.
 * Meranti: <font color="#900">99% - $2.61 billion, 30+ fatalities. Unless this pulls a Usagi, it's going.
 * Ferdie: 0% - Enteng 2.0.
 * Rai: 20% - For a weak storm, it caused some moderate problems in Vietnam. Damage totals were $144,000 and fatalities were at 12.
 * Malakas: <font color="#449">5% - Taiwan got another round of strong winds and heavy rain, but impacts were minimal.


 * Probably Gone - Lionrock
 * Possibly retired - Nepartak
 * Probably not retired - Mirinae, Dianmu, Rai
 * Not retired - Everything else

That's it for now! T G  16:11, August 20, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions:
I'm a bit bored, so I might as well make my calls on retirements for the WPac:

JMA names: PAGASA names: And there you have RyanK's retirements. Ryan1000 08:05, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Nepartak - 55% - It was damaging and somewhat deadly, but it wasn't as bad as some prior storms that hit the area, also most of the impacts were in China and China was dealing with worse floods earlier in the year. Still, those numbers qualify for something.
 * Lupit - 0% - Unlike it's last two incarnations, which were both cat 5's, this failed miserably.
 * Mirinae - 10% - It caused some damage and deaths, but those aren't notable for the impacted area.
 * Nida - 5% - Only minor impacts near HK. they've seen far worse than Nida and it's not getting retired.
 * Omais - 0% - Fishspinner with no impacts on land.
 * Conson - 0% - See Omais.
 * Chanthu - 1% - Passed close to Tokyo but with fairly little effects.
 * Dinamu - 3% - Wasn't as bad as Mirinae, and even that likely isn't getting retired.
 * Lionrock - 55% - Not too sure here; 133 of the 157 deaths were actually from remnants of Lionrock flooding North Korea and most of the damages were agricultural losses in China, it could be retired due to the deaths in North Korea but I can't be certain of it.
 * Mindulle - 2% - Wasn't much different from Chanthu.
 * Kompasu - 1% - Also minor effects in Japan.
 * Namtheun - 0% - Passed close to Japan but no impacts were reported.
 * Malou - 0% - Fail; even the JTWC never tracked this in its lifetime.
 * Meranti - 65% - 2.61 billion in damage is fairly extensive, much more than Nepartak earlier this year, on top of 30 deaths is pretty good for retirment, not to mention the devastation of the northern Philippine Batan islands. Wouldn't surprise me if it goes, but I can't be certain as there were some typhoons that have done worse and didn't go. Still likely regardless.
 * Rai - 4% - Only minor impacts in Vietnam.
 * Malakas - ?? - Still active, but could hit Japan in a few days.
 * All names - 0% - A storm must cause 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities to be retired in the Philippines, and no named storms from PAGASA's naming list meet that criteria as of now.