Forum:2019 Pacific typhoon season/October

October
Adding this section because it is certain that there will be activity in this basin during the 10th month of the year. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:57, September 29, 2019 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
New one on Tidbits, this is located close to the International Dateline east of the Marshall Islands. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:52, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like this is dead, no longer on Tidbits or NRL. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:35, October 2, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
This is up on JMA's weather map east of the Philippines with a pressure of 1010 mbar. This doesn't appear to be associated with any invest for the time being considering that 92W is way out there near the Marshall Islands. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:37, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 1012 mbar, what a sad excuse for a TD. Why did JMA even classify it, when there's no invest designation or anything else? ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:27, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back up to 1010 mbar. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:34, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on their weather map. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:15, October 3, 2019 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
New invest on Tidbits located east of Luzon. Considering where the JMA TD was a couple days ago, I think it's safe to assume that this invest is the same system as the TD. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:31, October 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on Tidbits or NRL. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:50, October 6, 2019 (UTC)

20W.HAGIBIS
See the archive on Hagibis, a very devastating super typhoon for Japan and maybe one of the worst in their history.

95W.INVEST
New invest on Tidbits just northwest of the Marshall Islands. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:43, October 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Died. The WPac is now in slumber mode. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:33, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (96W.INVEST)
A new, rapidly developing invest has appeared far to the east of the Philippines. Already code orange on JTWC and declared a 1010 mbar TD on JMA. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:46, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensified to 1008 mbar. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:14, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued, pressure down to 1004 mbar. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:52, October 15, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Perla/96W)
It has just been named by PAGASA. Pressure up a bit to 1006 mbar according to JMA, windspeed 35 mph (30 knots). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:34, October 16, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 21W (Perla)
Declared a depression by JTWC. Currently 30 mph (25 knots) according to them and looks unlikely to become a TS. JMA currently has it at 35 mph (30 knots), 1008 mbar. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:42, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC intensity has increased to 35 mph (30 knots) and JMA stays the same. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:31, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a 40 mph (35 knot) tropical storm per JTWC but still 35 mph (30 knots)/1008 mbar according to JMA. Might possibly steal the name "Neoguri". ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:18, October 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Neoguri (Perla)
And JMA has called it Neoguri. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:48, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 mph (40 knots) according to JTWC. Currently 40 mph (35 knots) and 1004 mbar according to JMA and it looks like this will only peak as a weak to moderate TS. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:53, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up further to 50 mph (45 knots) according to JTWC while JMA retains the same intensity. At this rate there might be a possibility of it reaching STS status... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:36, October 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 45 mph (40 knots) according to JMA, with a 1000 mbar pressure. JTWC retains it at 50 mph (45 knots). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:07, October 18, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (Perla)
Made it to STS status! Currently 60 mph (50 knots) and 992 mbar according to JMA and 65 mph (55 knots) according to JTWC. Looks like it will pass near, and potentially threaten, Japan around Tuesday-Wednesday. Might even have a chance at typhoon status at this rate. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:27, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Neoguri (Perla)
It has become a typhoon contrary to initial forecasts, 75 mph (65 knots)/980 mbar according to JMA and 85 mph (75 knots) according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:30, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * The system has continued to RI and is now 85 mph (75 knots)/970 mbar according to JMA and 110 mph (95 knots) according to JTWC. This is really exceeding our initial forecasts. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:20, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like it has already peaked and is now down to 75 mph (65 knots) according to both JMA and JTWC, with a pressure of 980 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:02, October 20, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (Perla) (2nd time)
Down to a STS, 70 mph (60 knots)/985 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:26, October 20, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Neoguri (Perla) (2nd time/unofficial)
It looks like JMA has downgraded it to a low. Still a 45 mph (40 knot) tropical storm according to JTWC though. Currently approaching Japan, it's remnants should affect Tokyo and surrounding areas. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:09, October 21, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Neoguri (Perla)
Final warning finally issued by the JTWC as it completes extratropical transition while passing near Japan. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:59, October 22, 2019 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Another invest has popped up on Tidbits. This is currently located only 3 degrees from the equator and near the International Dateline. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:14, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow on JTWC, it has moved northwestward away from the equator and the IDL. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:42, October 17, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (97W)
Now a JMA TD, 1008 mbar. Also code red on JTWC with a TCFA issued. Models seem to hint at possibly another big typhoon, although not as strong as Hagibis was. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:09, October 18, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 22W
Another tropical system is forming and should become Bualoi. Currently 35 mph (30 knots) according to both JMA and JTWC with a pressure of 1006 mbar. Intensification to at least C2-equivalent strength is likely, but models hint at it recurving before reaching Japan. Hopefully that will be the case. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:32, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bualoi
It has become a TS according to JMA, 40 mph (35 knots)/1000 mbar. 50 mph (45 knots) according to JTWC and now forecast to become a C3-equivalent. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:35, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up a little to 45 mph (40 knots)/998 mbar (JMA) and 60 mph (50 knots) according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:21, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Bualoi
It's now a STS. JMA currently has it at 60 mph (50 mph)/990 mbar. Nearly a typhoon per JTWC (70 mph/60 knots). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:03, October 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still a STS according to JMA (70 mph/60 knots and 980 mbar) but upgraded to a typhoon according to JTWC (80 mph/70 knots). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:03, October 20, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Bualoi
Upgraded to a typhoon, 85 mph (75 knots) (JTWC) and 80 mph (70 knots)/970 mbar (JMA). Now forecast by JTWC to become a C4-equivalent typhoon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:28, October 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a C2-equivalent according to JTWC, 100 mph (85 knots). JMA has it up to 90 mph (80 knots)/955 mbar. This is looking to become pretty powerful. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:31, October 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC has upgraded it to 120 mph (105 knots), making it a C3 on the SSHWS, while JMA's intensity is currently 100 mph (85 knots)/955 mbar. JTWC's forecast peak is now 145 mph (125 knots). Anyone else on this wiki want to comment on this amazing beast? This is really the only good system to track while the Atlantic and EPac are just dead silent (except for 93C, the invest that just entered the CPac). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:17, October 21, 2019 (UTC)

Now a C4-equivalent. 130 mph (1-min). Might be the next super typhoon of this basin. Interestingly, Bualoi is the replacement name for Rammasun, which was used for two super typhoons in its last two incarnations (in 2008 and 2014 respectively). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 23:06, October 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Closing in on super typhoon strength according to JTWC...currently 145 mph (125 knots). Also up to 115 mph (100 knots) and 935 mbar according to JMA. It would be nice if the super typhoon streak transcends to Rammasun's replacement name. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:02, October 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC's forecast puts Bualoi to peak at 125 knots... I still hope that it manages to become a super typhoon (since it's expected to miss Japan), but nonetheless Bualoi is a spectacle. One of the (surprisingly) rare fishspinners this season. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 22:39, October 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * It seems to have peaked, down to 110 mph (95 knots)/940 mbar according to JMA and 140 mph (120 knots) according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:43, October 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still pretty strong atm, but is on a gradual weakening trend as it starts passing east of Japan. Currently 105 mph (90 knots)/950 mbar according to JMA and 115 mph (100 knots) (still a C3-equivalent) according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:27, October 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now down to 90 mph (80 knots)/960 mbar according to JMA and 105 mph (90 knots) according to JTWC. Expected to become extratropical tomorrow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:01, October 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 75 kt per JTWC, becoming extratropical. -- Java Hurricane  04:40, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bualoi
It has completed extratropical transition over the far northwestern Pacific. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:26, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Philippine Sea)
A very short-lived TD apparently showed up on JMA's weather map in the Philippine Sea yesterday with a pressure of 1008 mbar. No longer on the map though. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:52, October 22, 2019 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
New invest located east of the southern Philippines. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:27, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC and starting to move over the southern Philippines atm. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:47, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (98W)
TD designation by JMA and code orange on JTWC. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 11:02, October 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code red & TCFA on JTWC. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 01:11, October 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is likely to become Matmo (Quiel) before it reaches Vietnam. Intensity according to JMA is now 30 knots (35 mph) and 1004 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:09, October 29, 2019 (UTC)


 * I believe this is moving out of PAGASA's area of responsibility so it probably won't be Quiel anymore, but Matmo is still very possible before it reaches Vietnam. Pressure down to 1002 mbar according to JMA, still code red on JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:28, October 29, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Matmo
It has quickly intensified to a tropical storm, 40 knots (45 mph)/998 mbar according to JMA. JTWC's initial advisory currently has it only as a weak 25 knot (30 mph) TD though. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:10, October 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC has it as a TS as well. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:35, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Might become a STS before it reaches Vietnam. Up to 45 knots (50 mph)/994 mbar (JMA) and 35 knots (40 mph) (JTWC). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:45, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Matmo
Upgraded to a STS, 50 knots (60 mph) according to both agencies and 992 mbar. About to make landfall in Vietnam. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:17, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Matmo
Made landfall and rapidly weakened over land. Hopefully it isn't too bad for Indochina. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  04:14, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * JMA currently maintains this as a 1008 mbar TD over land. Should degenerate into a remnant low anytime now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  21:20, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Matmo
And it's dead for good. Hopefully nothing too serious occurred in Indochina. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:17, November 1, 2019 (UTC)