Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC Best Track for last year is out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

August
Has begun, but WPac is quiet outside of Jebi. Ryan1000 06:43, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Kiko)
The JMA is currently tracking a 30 kt, 1006 mbar tropical depression. It is labeled Invest 94W by the JTWC, and that agency gives it a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:11, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

PAGASA has named this depression Kiko. It also has gotten slightly stronger. Also, the JTWC gives this depression a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:02, August 5, 2013 (UTC)

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) has been issued by the JTWC. We could see another weak tropical storm from this invest/depression. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:53, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Bit lonely Andrew? (Yeah, no one seems to care about the WPac, but it is the most active basin worldwide). Anyways, I don't expect much from this one. Maybe TS Mangkhut, but nothing more. Ryan1000 16:58, August 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10W
The JTWC has initiated advisories on this depression, and it has designated it Tropical Depression 10W. The JMA expects a 35 knot tropical storm from this depression, and the JTWC predicts a 40 knot tropical storm. Note that the JMA uses 10-minute sustained winds and the JTWC uses 1-minute sustained winds. Also, the JTWC takes Tropical Depression 10W straight into Vietnam in approximately 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:12, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here comes Mangkhut! I hope it won't be too bad for the people who live there.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 01:15, August 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * They get this kind of stuff every year, pretty much. This shouldn't be anything exceptional. Ryan1000 06:06, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mangkhut (Kiko)
Now named by JMA. Ryan1000 14:00, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

The JTWC has also classified Mangkhut as a tropical storm. However, neither the JTWC or JMA expect Mangkhut to go beyond 45 knots. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:04, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

And Mangkhut is no stronger...Here comes another fail. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

The wpac in terms of intensity has been a disappointment to me like the Epac.Allanjeffs 04:00, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Currently at 40 kts/992 mbar, but Mangkhut will not intensify any further, as both the JMA and JTWC forecast. Also, Allan, I agree. This year, intensitywise, is currently a fail for all Northern Hemisphere basins. In 2010, the Atlantic rocked while everyone else failed. In 2011, it was the Eastern Pacific that did so. In 2012, it was divided between the Pacific and Atlantic. This year, we are just horrible. The Atlantic may pull a 1950, 2001, or 2010, but it is not very likely at this point. Likewise, the Pacific could 2009 out, but I really doubt that. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:58, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * In 2012, the Atlantic was rather lackluster with power, with only 2 majors that barely made the upgrade and everything else being weak. The Pacific was more or less average last year. The Atlantic's peak has yet to come. 2010 didn't get Danielle until late August and that year still got to 19 named storms. As for this year, we got Dorian in July, before August even began. If we get, say 5 storms in August, September, and October in the ATL, we're going to have a 19 storm season again. And we could easily go over that if we explode like 2010 did. Ryan1000 23:37, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Mangkhut
Gone as it moves inland to Vietnam. Ryan1000 14:54, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

Well, that was quite the fail. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:25, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Was hoping to see more, but it didn't do much. It wasn't an epic fail knowing it did impact land, but those impcts weren't that much. Ryan1000 20:56, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
And as Mangkhut dies, a new man is born! Golly, the Pacific is in an outrage! WE have Henriette, 2 AOIs, and now this guy! Anyway, this depression has just been classified, and it is going to become an epic fail. The JMA predicts a 35 knot tropical storm and then kills it. Is it me, or is the WPAC pulling a 2011 AHS (one epic win and everyone else a fail or fishspinner)? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:38, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Should this be named, it would be Utor. EPac is impressing me more than WPac is, they've got a category 2, a potential future major, and a future TS behind Henriette. This is rather lackluster for the WPac, Mangkhut didn't do to much and this should do even less than Mangkhut did. It might not even do anything at all. Ryan1000 20:54, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11W (Labuyo)
Um, I don't know if I'm looking at the same storm as you guys, but if I am, then this thing is currently forecast to become a 120-knot Category 4 pointed at Hong Kong by Tuesday. That's a pretty unsettling forecast; future Utor is definitely one to watch. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:37, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ryan you are seeing the depression east of the phillipines right? all of the models show a cat 3 or 4 slaming near Hong Kong.Allanjeffs 05:10, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, the JMA still only takes the system to 35 knots. However, the JTWC predicts this depression will slam into southern China as an 85 knot typhoon. So I take back what I said about Tropical Depression 11W becoming an epic fail. Also, PAGASA has named the depression Labuyo. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:27, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JTWC is more biased than the JMA and they're unofficial; the official JMA forecast doesn't do much with this at all. JTWC does but they're not official and they've been wrong quite a few times before (especially with Soulik, they forecasted it to hit Shanghai as a monster super typhoon; even I bought that would happen but instead it ended up further south in Taiwan, like the JMA said). I highly doubt this'll end up being a Cat. 4 in Hong Kong. Even JTWC has lowered their forecast, now they don't expect it to be more than a 100 mph cat. 2, and also missing Hong Kong to the south. However, JMA might not be completely bustcasting this storm; in fact I think the reason their forecast cone is so short is because they're not too sure what'll happen with this thing. That might be dangerous... Ryan1000 13:38, August 9, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Utor (Labuyo)
Now named by JMA, currently at 45 kt per JTWC. Forecast by the JTWC to become a 90-knot Category 2 typhoon before striking Luzon and subsequently moving into the South China Sea towards Hainan. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:48, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Utor Aug 10 2013 0032Z.png seriously think that the JTWC is underestimating the actual strength of this storm. The structure is closer to that of a 70 knot typhoon rather than a 55 knot storm. Supportstorm (talk) 02:22, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Utor (Labuyo)
Utor's bombing, guys. JTWC has it at 55 kts, and JMA at 60 kts/975 mbar and forecast to become a "Very Strong" 85-knot (10-min) typhoon by the end of the forecast period. Our second typhoon of the year is forthcoming. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:26, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

I am still saying this is at least a cat 1 now and it would at least reach cat 3 I believe a peak as a 4 is going to happen,unless it becomes a super typhoon of course but I don`t know why you believe it will be weak Ryan it has almost perfect conditions to explode.Allanjeffs 06:41, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo)
JMA has this at 70kts 10-min. JTWC has yet to update their best track. JMA has a peak of 90kts, which for them is very strong category 4. Minimum pressure of 930mb as well, which would make Utor tied for the strongest storm of 2013. Yqt1001 (talk) 07:12, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Idk, maybe JMA wasn't too sure what Utor would do at the start of it's life. They didn't expect much out of this initially, but at least it's running towards an unpopulated part of the Philipines. The island of Luzon should really slow this one down intensity-wise, and it should only be a cat 2/3 when it enters the South China Sea and then heads towards Hainan Island as a moderate to somewhat strong typhoon in several days. Not like they haven't seen storms like Utor before. Hopefully it won't be too bad, Megi of 2010 hit Luzon as a 185 mph super typhoon and it caused relatively little damage despite it's extreme strength, due to the island's scarce population. I don't really expect Utor to be any worse. I'm still not buying a superstorm in Hong Kong though, Typhoon Vicente of last year came painfully close to outright wrecking the city. I really don't want to see Utor hit them directly, and even if it does, at least they'll have prior warning for Utor. They had less than 12 hours warning for Vicente. Ryan1000 11:11, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * JTWC is at 70 kt (1-min) as well. JMA estimates the pressure at 965 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:12, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now a Category 2 by JTWC standards, with 90-knot winds. JMA estimates 80-kt winds and a pressure of 955 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:46, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Goodness, Utor is bombing out! The JTWC now expects Utor to reach 110 knots, which could be a little too much of an underestimate at the rate it's exploding. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:03, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Geez, Utor is strengthening FAST! The Philippines and China better watch out for this one. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:13, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Might even have a shot at cat. 5 strength. Maybe a Hong Kong superstorm isn't out of the question, JMA's latest forecast takes it right over the city as a 150 mph super typhoon. Hopefully that doesn't happen though... Ryan1000 16:13, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

It would appear that Utor has started an EWRC, or something else has stopped its strengthening. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:46, August 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, Utor has suddenly stalled its intensification rate. I am not sure what happened to it. Anyway, the JTWC now only expect a 105 knot typhoon from the system. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:31, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Utor is back! Completely cleared pinhole eye and all that. nearing super typhoon status. Yqt1001 (talk) 06:39, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Utor is pushing for a bordeline cat 5 right now is such a beauty,hoping it doesn`t cause a lot of destruction in the phillippines.Allanjeffs 10:57, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * 115 kt according to JTWC. JMA estimates 90-knot (10-min) winds and a pressure of 940 mbar. Expected to peak as a "Violent" 110-knot (10-min) typhoon with a pressure of 925 mbar. This thing could easily displace Soulik as the strongest storm of the season. What an all-or-nothing season so far, eh? It's like the 2011 AHS - 11 named storms, but only two reached hurricane strength, and both were very intense tropical cyclones (in the case of Soulik and Utor, both Category 4s). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:49, August 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Utor is looking incredible right now! The Philippines must be getting a beating from this monster typhoon! Also, the JTWC expects Utor to peak at 120 knots. And I was correct about the JTWC underestimating Utor per my second post above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:08, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * At least Typhoon Utor is heading towards a relatively unpopulated part of the island of Luzon. JMA takes this to 925 mbars before running into Luzon later today. They keep it at 945 mbar or so when it hits China later this week to the southwest of Hong Kong. It should be a cat 3 or 4 by then, they'll need to be wary of this one. Ryan1000 12:24, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Acually it's at 925 mbar right now, with 105 kt (10-min) winds according to the JMA. JTWC assesses Utor with 130 kt winds, making it the first super typhoon of the season, and displacing Soulik as the strongest so far. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:40, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Utor will not stop! The JTWC keeps understimating this raging monster. It still has a slight chance of getting stronger, but the Philippines do not need any more. This intensification burst also makes Utor the first super typhoon in the Pacific since Bopha last year. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:17, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

With Utor at 925mb this makes Utor the strongest storm so far in 2013. Pretty unfortunate year so far imo....anyways, looks like an EWRC has started and the storm is just about to make landfall on Luzon. Yqt1001 (talk) 15:35, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Actually, Utor is tied with Soulik in terms of pressure, but Utor wins as the stronger one because of its windspeed. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:05, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

And now, Utor has weakened to 95 knots (10-minute winds) /935 mbar according to the JMA. This storm is no less dangerous for the Philippines, however. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:49, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Utor's pressure has fallen to 940 mbar per the JMA. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:59, August 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, Utor ran into Luzon as a C4. Hopefully this won't hassle them too much, China might be a different story though. Ryan1000 00:35, August 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * And Utor was actually a super typhoon when it hit Luzon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:04, August 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Base on the news I am reading,Utor is the worst typhoon to ever hit an area name casiguran.Allanjeffs 12:20, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Utor is now down to 75 knots (10-minute winds) and 955 mbar per the JMA. The JTWC's winds for Utor are currently 95 knots. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:08, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

I hate that there are two organizations in the wpac,its really confusing knowing which is right and which is wrong.Jma tend to be good with the intensity of tropical storms and JWTC with typhoons or its reverse but I don`t remember.Allanjeffs 13:21, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Now Utor has weakened to 85 knots (1-minute) per the JTWC and the pressure, according to the JMA, has risen to 960 mbar. The first death has been reported in the Philippines, and 23 people are currently missing. Damage totals are yet to come. Also, Allan, the JMA is the only official tropical cyclone warning center in the WPAC. The JTWC tends to be biased; it did not accurately predict Soulik's track and underestimated Utor's intensity. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:26, August 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope it wasn't TOO bad for the Philippines. Anyway, this could restrengthen over the South China Sea and probably affect China as a Cat. 3 or even a Cat. 4.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:31, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Utor is further down to 75 knots (10-minute winds) according to the JMA, 95 knots (1-minute winds) per the JTWC, and still has a pressure of 960 mbar. The JMA predicts Utor to reach 85 knots (10-minute) and a pressure of 945 mbar before slamming into Mainland China, and the JTWC expects winds of 100 knots (1-minute). Also, a Signal 1 tropical cyclone warning alert is up for Hong Kong. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:25, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Did everyone lose interest in Utor? A level 3 alert is up for Hong Kong. This could be a nightmare for southern China! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, August 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * I doubt Utor will hit Hong Kong directly, but it's large enough to cause serious damage wherever it hits. The JMA is usually correct in forecasting most storms in the WPac, but I believe the JTWC has lots of credibility as well. Even though they're unofficial, the JTWC has better naval equipment and they've been forecasting tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans for the past 70 years. However, the JTWC doesn't use recon like they once did and they don't all have PhD's. I still acknowledge them though. And I like using their 1-minute system over the JMA's 10-minute system personally. Ryan1000 01:25, August 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Back up to 100 kt 1-min winds, a low-end Category 3 equivalent typhoon, per JTWC. JMA has Utor with 80 kt 10-min winds and a pressure of 955 mbar. Also, I wonder why the JTWC stopped using recon? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:12, August 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Utor is now down to 95 knots (1-minute) per the JTWC. It still is the same intensity since Dylan's post per the JMA, but the agency expects it to bottom out at 950 mbar. Also, a second fatality has been reported from Utor in the Philippines. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:27, August 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Aurora province is not looking so good right now. 80% of the infrastructure has been destroyed there. This fact alone makes Utor a potential retirement candidate! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:42, August 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Signal No. 8 was raised in Hong Kong earlier today... It has made landfall, and is now in the vicinity of Guangxi Province. Now the storm signal in Hong Kong has been down to Signal No. 3. I'm from the Philippines, and as I have seen in the news, damages from Utor/Labuyo is nearing PHP 1 billion from a certain province there alone (I'm pertaining to Quirino province, not Aurora). So I think that retirement's in the midst for Utor's Philippine codename, which is "Labuyo". (In the Philippines, storm names are retired after it either caused 300 or more deaths, or damages that are worth 1 billion pesos (PHP) or more.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:47, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Utor (2nd time)
Utor's winds are down to 80 knots (1-minute) per the JTWC and the JMA reports winds of 60 knots (10-minute) and a pressure of 975 mbar. Both agencies forecast Utor's demise within 48 hours. Also, four more fatalities have been reported from Utor. However, its Philippine damage should be enough to retire at least its PAGASA name. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:15, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Utor has now made landfall in China, and is dying.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:58, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dr. Masters mentioned in his WUnderblog a few days ago that the area in which Utor is making landfall in China is in a severe dorught and they could use some of Utor's rainfall. Hopefully it won't be too bad for them though. Ryan1000 17:17, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Utor's winds are down to 55 knots (10-minute) and 75 knots (1-minute), and its pressure has risen to 980 mbar per the JMA. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:02, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Utor (2nd time)
Utor is really being killed by the land of Mainland China! It is down to 45 knots (10-minute winds) and 980 millibars per the JMA, but the JTWC still reports winds of 75 knots (1-minute winds) in the system. Regardless of Utor's intensity, it should be mentioned at Utor's 1500 UTC warning will be the JTWC's last advisory on the system, at least for now. Also, a seventh fatality has been reported from the typhoon. However, damage reports are not yet available. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:20, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

Utor's barely hanging on there...35 knot winds (10-minute) and a pressure of 994 mbar according to the JMA. Expect its demise in 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:42, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Utor
Utor's fate has been sealed! This monster is over! Eight deaths and 932 million Philippine pesos in damage - both those totals are going to give the WMO and PAGASA something to think about when they retire names next spring. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:11, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Utor
It just won't die. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:50, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Isaac, are you sure Utor's still up? I do not see anything on the JMA or JTWC websites. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:27, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
This new little guy stirs up as Utor attacks the Philippines. However, it is very weak right now (30 knots/1004 mbar), and even if it does become something, it will be outshadowed quite significantly by Utor. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:05, August 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * And, I think this has been eaten up by Utor now.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:34, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Depression Absorbed
Utor ate this depression alive before the JTWC could even comment on it. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:26, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression A (Maring)
This new tropical depression formed a couple of days ago. Other than that, all I can report on it is that its current intensity is 30 knots/1002 mbar and it is forecast to hit 35 knots. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:38, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

PAGASA has named this depression Maring. Otherwise, the only other things new about this depression is that its pressure has been lowered to 1000 mbar and it is forecast to hit 35 knots/998 mbar. Also, the JTWC gives the depression a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone per their standards. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:16, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12W
Strange forecast cone. Isaac829 E-Mail  04:21, August 17, 2013 (UTC)

The JTWC slams this depression into the Philippines. Also, its pressure is down to 998 mbar per the JMA. The strange cone might be because this depression is executing a Fujiwhara effect with TD 13W. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:00, August 17, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Trami (Maring)
The JTWC has yet to upgrade it to a tropical storm, but JMA is assessing this thing with 35-knot 10-min winds and a pressure of 994 mbar, giving it the name Trami. Forecast to become a marginal severe tropical storm with 50-knot 10-min winds and a pressure of 985 mbar by the end of the forecast period. (Unsigned comment left by HurricaneMaker99 at 06:11, August 18, 2013)


 * Forecast to head away from, but then back towards, China as a TS and nothing more. Ryan1000 08:08, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JTWC has now upgraded this depression to a tropical storm, and they expect winds of 65 knots (1-minute) before a Mainland China landfall. Also, who left the first post above Ryan's? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:34, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * That was me, sorry. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:50, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * I was almost sure it was you or Isaac by the form it wrote,anyways it can be a new member that does not know how to sign.Allanjeffs 11:57, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * It has such a strange forecast cone. The JTWC predicts that Trami will move away from China, then come back and hit Taiwan and China as a weak typhoon.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:23, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's kinda odd, but at least it probrably won't bomb out. Also, there have been stranger forecast tracks before, imagine how hard it must've been to forecastthis one lol. Ryan1000 18:18, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this will become a severe tropical storm. And yeah, Wayne '86 was like a Western Pacific Fay, Irwin, or Marco. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:33, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

The JTWC reports winds of 40 knots (1-minute) in its new advisory and a pressure of 992 mbar. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks a bit better on sattelite imagery, I think it'll be a cat 2 when it hits northern Taiwan, hopefully nothing more. Ryan1000 02:37, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * JMA reports 45-knot 10-min winds and a pressure of 990 mbar, making this incarnation of Trami the strongest of three to date. JTWC estimates 50-knot 1-min winds. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:38, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JMA expects Trami to become a 60 knot (10-minute), 975 mbar severe tropical storm. The JTWC expects winds of 75 knots (1-minute) . Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:25, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Trami (Maring)
Just declared a STS by the JMA. 50-knot 10-min winds, 985 mbar. The JTWC does not yet assess a change in intensity. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:11, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Per the JTWC, Trami's winds are now at 60 knots (1-minute). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:18, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrew, for future reference, 60 knots is equal to 70 mph, and 55 knots is equal to 65 mph. Trami's current JTWC winds are estimated at 55 knots (1-min). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Trami's pressure has been lowered to 980 mbar. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:16, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * 60-knot 1-min winds per JTWC, almost the unofficial fifth typhoon of the season! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:30, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

I hope Trami becomes a typhoon! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope so too! Steven09876 T 22:12, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Per the JMA, Trami has winds of 60 knots (10-minute) and a pressure of 970 mbar. Per the JTWC, we have a 65 knot (1-minute) typhoon. Get prepared for the first "Typhoon Trami" on record. Dylan, congrats on your prediction in the betting pools! It is verifying! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:35, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * My prediction was that Trami would be the strongest storm of the season, which has a snowball's chance in hell of happening, but thanks! And I don't expect the JMA to classify Trami as a typhoon before landfall. Maybe it will be upgraded in post-analysis, but right now I think it's too close to shore. I wouldn't write the chance off completely though. BTW, Trami's up to 70-knot 1-min winds per the JTWC, and the pressure's down to 965 mbar per the JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:55, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * No, Trami is not going to be the strongest of the season. But Taiwan and China could take a beating from this. Steven09876 T 21:15, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * I acknowledged that, Steven, when I used the term "snowball's chance in hell," which means a slim to nil chance of happening, leaning nil. Trami is now just inland China. It failed to make the JMA upgrade, but the last JTWC update before landfall raised the winds to 75 kt (1-min). JMA estimates that the pressure has risen to 970 mbar. I wouldn't rule out a JMA upgrade in post-analysis, but I wouldn't count on it. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:11, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Per the JMA, Trami's 10-minute winds have been lowered to 50 knots and its pressure has risen to 980 mbar. The JTWC's final advisory on the storm reported winds of 75 knots (1-minute) . It is expected to weaken further to a tropical depression in 24 hours per the JMA. Also, eight fatalities and $10 million (2013 USD) in damage has been reported from Trami. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:17, August 22, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Trami (2nd time)
Trami's 10-minute winds have fallen to 35 knots (40 mph), and its pressure has risen to 990 mbar (29.23 inHg). An additional nine fatalities have been caused by this storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:37, August 22, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Trami
Trami's pressure has risen to 992 mbar (29.29 inHg) and it has been downgraded to a tropical depression per the JMA. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:21, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Trami contributed to already devastating floods in that part of China which killed over 450 people. Trami itself is only responsible for 8 of those deaths as of now, but it could get worse later on. Ryan1000 15:31, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression B
This new little guy also just formed. All I can report on it is that its current intensity is 30 knots/1002 mbar, as the JMA does not have it up on their tracking map yet. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:38, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

The depression's pressure is now at 1000 mbar. Otherwise, it is expected to reach 35 knots/998 mbar and the JTWC gives it a low chance of becoming a tropical depression per their standards. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:18, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13W
Strangest TC cone I've seen. Isaac829 E-Mail  04:21, August 17, 2013 (UTC)

The JTWC has this depression execute a backwards "C" shape before slamming into Taiwan. Its pressure has fallen to 998 mbar per the JMA. I think this track is being forecast because of the Fujiwhara between this and TD 12W. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:32, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

And the JTWC has killed it. This was quite the epic fail! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:32, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this failed so badly.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:25, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 13W
The JMA has declared it extratropical. F-A-I-L! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

01C.PEWA
See here. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:52, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

02C.UNALA
See here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:10, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

03C.NONAME
See here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
There are enough storms. -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:41, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - 5% - 2 deaths are not going to do it.
 * Auring - 0% - Missed most of Philippines.
 * Bising - 0% - Paralleled the Philippines.
 * Shanshan - 0% - An excuse of a TS.
 * Crising - 20% - Not enough.
 * Yagi - 0% - Fail.
 * Dante - 0% - Went the opposite way.
 * Leepi - 0% - Nope.
 * Emong - 0% - No.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Not too much damage.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned away from the Philippines.
 * Rumbia - 25% - I doubt it.
 * Gorio - 30% - Nah.
 * Soulik - ?

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions:

JMA:
 * 1) Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all.
 * 2) Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not.
 * 3) Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths.
 * 4) Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi.
 * 5) Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 6) Rumbia - 5% - Fifty-five deaths, along with $1.25 million (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca an unlikely retirement candidate. Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * 7) Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good.
 * 8) Cimaron - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported.
 * 9) Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been.
 * 10) Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it will be bad at all for Vietnam.
 * 11) Utor - 40% - Utor could have been so much worse than it really was. Looking at a super typhoon explode so close to the Philippines was just unreal. The Philippines have quite the road to recovery and southern China was hit pretty good as well. However, despite the ugly $21 million (2013 USD) in damage, the eight deaths lowers my percentage significantly. If Utor had caused Bopha or Washi-like fatality totals, we could be looking at a typhoon with an 80% chance of retirement.
 * 12) Trami - TBA - Still Active

PAGASA:
 * 1) Auring - 0.1% - No.
 * 2) Bising - 0% - No way.
 * 3) Crising - 2% - Not really.
 * 4) Dante - 0% - No way.
 * 5) Emong - 0.05% - No.
 * 6) Fabian - 0% - No way.
 * 7) Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it.
 * 8) Huaning - 0% - No.
 * 9) Isang - 0.01% - No.
 * 10) Jolina - 0.05% - No.
 * 11) Kiko - 0.05% - No.
 * 12) Labuyo - 50% - Maybe, but I will not guarantee it.
 * 13) Maring - TBA - Still Active

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Might as well make mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Those are mine for now. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - <1% - Not happening.
 * Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha.
 * Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan.
 * Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this.
 * Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area.
 * Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse.
 * Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse.
 * Jebi - 8% - Meh.
 * Mangkhut - 10% - Not expected to be too bad.
 * Utor - 65% - Caused lots of damage over parts of Luzon, China got off better though.
 * Trami - ?? - Not sure yet.
 * Auring - 1% - Not enough.
 * Bising - 0% - Seriously?
 * Crising - 4% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening.
 * Fabian - 0% - What?
 * Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen.
 * Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines.
 * Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines.
 * Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands.
 * Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines.
 * Labuyo - 60% - Although it was fairly destructive, the islands have seen worse. Still, has a chance.
 * Maring - ?? - Not sure, though it looks like it'll miss the islands.

Here's my predictions:

JMA names
 * Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough.
 * Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement.
 * Yagi - 0% - Failure.
 * Leepi - 0% - No way.
 * Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it.
 * Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse.
 * Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so.
 * Jebi - 0.5% - Nope.
 * Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it.
 * Utor - 55% - Caused lots of destruction in the Philippines and China. I think we have the first serious retirement candidate!
 * Trami - ? - Still active, but Taiwan and China better watch out for this one.

PAGASA names Steven09876 T 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it.
 * Bising - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Crising - 2% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Hell no.
 * Emong - 0.1% - No.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way.
 * Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse.
 * Huaning - 0% - Nope.
 * Isang - 0.1% - Not happening.
 * Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired.
 * Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines.
 * Labuyo - Retired.
 * Maring - ? - Still active

Labuyo has been retired due to its damage total. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

So we know that if a storm makes more than1 billion in damage and kill more than 300 lives is going to be retire.Now we know which ones are going out of the list.Allanjeffs 15:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC)