Forum:2008 Pacific typhoon season

No discussion?
No discussion here at all? Not even for the monstrous Cyclone Nargis? Bob rulz 06:59, 10 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Nargis was in the Bay of Bengal, nimrod ;D. -- SkyFury 01:09, 11 July 2008 (UTC)


 * I'm pretty sure I was thinking of Fengshen when I posted this, not Nargis, haha. My bad. Bob rulz 03:24, 9 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08W
At last, life. I have never seen the West Pacific this quiet. It was dead for a good three weeks. -- SkyFury 04:12, 15 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kalmaegi
Heh, I've never seen the forums this quiet. It's supposed to hit Taipei as a cat 1, then skirt by Ningbo and head towards Korea as a TS. Hopefully it stays far enough east not to worsen the flooding situation, as Fengshen did when it dumped rain onto the centre of the flood. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:10, 16 July 2008 (UTC)

Typhoon Kalmaegi
Uh oh. It's a cat. 2 and expected to hit Taipei as a cat. 2, Shanghai as a cat. 1, and Kwangju, South Korea as a TS. If the official forecast is right, this would make it the worst storm to hit Shanghai since Mamie of 1985, worst storm to hit Taipei since Krosa of 2007, and worst to hit Kwangju since Maemi of 2003, yet I did all that searching and nobody cares. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:18, 17 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It's a TS and dissapating, could rain on Shanghai as a TD, everybody got lucky again. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:57, 18 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Any word on damage? -- SkyFury 01:02, 23 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Yes. Millions of dollars in damage, about 30-40 killed I think. Flooding in southeastern and eastern China, but other than that, not much. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:00, 24 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Aaah! That's not good. Now they got another one comin'. -- SkyFury 17:57, 26 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09W
Another TD, expected to strengthen to a strong TS, then make landfall on southeastern China as a weak TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:00, 24 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong
Oh great. Another TS expected to make landfall on China, with too much uncertainty in the forecast track and intensity. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:42, 25 July 2008 (UTC)

Typhoon Fung-Wong
You know, Taiwan really doesn't need another frapping typhoon. -- SkyFury 17:57, 26 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Yikes, supposed to be another cat 2! Too much uncertainty in its track at this point. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:29, 26 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Already a cat 2, expected to strike Taiwan as a cat 3. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:32, 27 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 10w
Oh great, another storm expected to hit southern China as a typhoon. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:13, 4 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Hit China as a Severe Tropical Storm Jason Rees 01:47, 7 August 2008 (UTC)

Invests
Now there are 96W.INVEST, 97W.INVEST, 98W.INVEST and 99W.INVEST. Interesting! 60.50.45.213 05:16, 12 August 2008 (UTC)


 * 99.INVEST's gone. The rest are POOR. 60.48.242.38 09:22, 12 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Eyeing 96W.INVEST. TCFA was issued. Storm&#39;s Eye 05:32, 14 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11w
I guess one invest just turned into a TD, but it's only a tiny convective blip, and the forecast doesn't look too promising. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:20, 13 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12w
Yup, looks like one more invest is now a TD. Expected to brush by Tokyo as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:14, 14 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Vongfong
Now a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:39, 15 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Will not affect land. I'm turning to Atlantic. Storm&#39;s Eye 08:43, 16 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 13w
Um, I think you should stay here. Might this contain the remnants of Kika? Who knows, but it's just big enough that its outer bands might be Kika. Anyway, It's expected to hit Taiwan and perhaps Shanghai, oh no not another one! The good news is, its cone is wide enough that a direct hit on any specific location seems unlikely, but unfortunately it's a huge system, and it probably comes from the Central Atlantic, so this could be Kika.

Tropical Storm 13w
Just been upgraded, will probably be named Nuri. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:51, 17 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nuri
Yay! Just got a name. Chunks of remnants of Kika? I'm not that sure, but in Navy's TC page, I think I've seen the guys tracked its remnants for several days - yeah, until last 2 days (My time: GMT +8). By the way, the sea's storing very, very high heat content. In Tropical Storm Risk they predict it will become a Cat 3 typhoon, but it will gonna brush the Philippines and Taiwan.

By the way, Pacific's typhoon season this year looked somewhat shy. Is it only me... or? LOL.

Storm&#39;s Eye 04:02, 18 August 2008 (UTC)

Typhoon Nuri
Uh oh, this could be bad wherever it hits, but there's still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:20, 18 August 2008 (UTC)

Yep. This time JTWC predicts that there will be a landfall in mainland China. But still they predict that it will still have Cat 3 winds and gusts of a Cat 4 one. Whew. I'm shocked to find out this. Maybe I'll simply take back my words before. :) Storm&#39;s Eye 03:31, 19 August 2008 (UTC)

General Comments on this season so far
It has been a little bit slow but we are only just getting into the prime of the season. Nuri was only upgraded to cat 3 in besttrack as far as i am aware and gave a direct hit to hong kong which is rare.Jason Rees 02:09, 23 August 2008 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
TCFA flagged up. Storm&#39;s Eye 08:57, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14W
JTWC just few hours ago upgraded it as a TS but not JMA. Now it's a TD. Expected not to restrengthen into a TS anymore. Storm&#39;s Eye 08:39, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
East of Guam. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:43, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sinlaku
Wow, the West Pacific has been really slow this year. Finally something to watch east of Luzon, expected to head northeast out to sea, possibly hitting the Ryukyu Islands in 4-5 days. Bob rulz 03:29, 9 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah, very. I was actually surprised to observe only one Cat 3 typhoon during August and little TS activity (I guess so). Well, is it too early to tell, isn't it? And the last activity recorded in August was TS 14W. About two weeks later then it only produce a TS. Why is such a weird phenomenon to occur? ENSO is normal, sea temp is kinda enough to kick start a storm. Thesis, anyone? LOL, but surely Atlantic is somewhat more aggressive than WPac in August. Well, it's not the end of the year yet... Just have a look and see... Storm&#39;s Eye 14:10, 9 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The West Pacific is a strange basin. Sometimes it has these long stretches where nothing really forms despite otherwise favorable conditions. There's so much hot water out there that anything that does form has the potential to turn into a monster. Sinlaku appears to be doing just that. This is a very large storm and it appears to be rapidly intensifying. We've got ourselves possibly our first classic West Pacific typhoon of the year! It's a typhoon now btw. Bob rulz 06:43, 10 September 2008 (UTC)

Typhoon Sinlaku
It's a typhoon now. PS: This storm is getting recon!!! I don't know why or if it's going to be a new consistent thing, but it's getting recon! Bob rulz 06:41, 10 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Woah. It was predicted to be a Cat 4 with gusts of a Cat 5. Hm. BTW, it seems that I agree with you then about the mind-blowing properties of WPac. Storm&#39;s Eye 13:32, 10 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now a Cat 4 typhoon. Last time I checked in it was a Cat 2 typhoon. Woah! Storm&#39;s Eye 22:05, 10 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Very impressive storm to say the least. It's going to come close to Taiwan but will recurve to the northeast and move along the Ryukyu Islands it seems. Btw, apparently there's a 9-country, 2-month long recon project going on in the West Pacific. I think recon is supposed to be in this storm tomorrow (or I guess later today for the West Pacific). It will be very interesting to see what they find. It's been too long. Bob rulz 02:47, 11 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah. They're kinda lucky, though. Storm&#39;s Eye 03:26, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

This is a truly classic storm. I believe they did end up going into the storm but I haven't seen any recon reports yet. It may also end up clipping northern Taiwan now. Forecasts have been trending westward. Bob rulz 17:35, 11 September 2008 (UTC)
 * EWRC is finished and the storm is strengthening again. Bob rulz 08:37, 12 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Have you seen this? Such a very, very, big eye! Storm&#39;s Eye 13:33, 12 September 2008 (UTC)
 * About to make landfall in Taipei as a cat. 2. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:49, 13 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This is how it's been in the West Pacific for the past two seasons. Two weeks of dead silence then boom, major hurricane. -- SkyFury 18:38, 13 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Remnants affecting British Columbia, Canada. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:08, 24 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow. It went THAT far? Amazing! Storm&#39;s Eye 09:55, 25 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 16W
Tiny rather pathetic-looking storm southeast of Japan. It's not expected to intensify much and is going to recurve long before it reaches the coast. Still, the West Pacific finally seems to be getting its groove back. Bob rulz 06:41, 10 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, it still have the potential to become a typhoon. Storm&#39;s Eye 13:49, 10 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Probably it would not get a name. Hmm... Storm&#39;s Eye 22:15, 10 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks like it'll come closer to the coast than was originally thought but still weak. Bob rulz 02:57, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

The reason it doesn't have a name is because the JMA still says it's only a tropical depression and they use 10-minute wind speed averages. On the 1-minute scale the JTWC and NHC use this was a tropical storm. At least I think. Bob rulz 17:51, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hagupit
Could hit the Macao area as a cat. 1, and affect the Philippines before then, and the Macao/Hong Kong area hasn't seen an actual typhoon since 2003. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:48, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now it was predicted that it probably could reach Cat 3 near HK (scary~!) before weakens to a Cat 1 and would hit the mainland China after that as a minimal Cat 1 typhoon. But, this could be a repeatation of Nuri, probably. Still it's now too early to predict.. Storm&#39;s Eye 22:20, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Still the same... Storm&#39;s Eye 12:28, 21 September 2008 (UTC)

Typhoon Hagupit
Now a typhoon, expected to be a cat. 2 when it emerges near the gulf between Hong Kong and Macao, then weaken to a cat. 1 before landfalling. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:27, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * When it might hit HK, is it anyway worse than Nuri? Storm&#39;s Eye 10:32, 23 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's just made landfall in Guangdong province. Whether it's worse than Nuri, you decide. Nuri made a direct hit as a TS, this thing passed south of the city as a cat. 3. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:23, 23 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This thing made landfall as a cat. 4...bad. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:58, 23 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Is it the strongest Cat 4 typhoon in the South China Sea in 2 years time after Chanchu? Surely it's very strong then. Storm&#39;s Eye 09:57, 24 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Why JMA is still monitoring this system at 0000UTC? It's already inland, JTWC has already put its final warning. Storm&#39;s Eye 21:52, 25 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 19W
Unnamed as of yet east of the Philippines, but it looks to be strengthening at a pretty good clip now. Expected to follow Hagupit for now. Bob rulz 03:41, 24 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now it's WPac turn to unleash the beasts. Guess so. Storm&#39;s Eye 10:02, 24 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The previous forecast predicted a cat. 5 direct hit on Hong Kong (the last time a cat. 4 hit Hong Kong was 1964)! Currently, the forecast predicts it to emerge south of Kaohsing and hit SW Fujian as a cat. 4. Of course, there's a lot of uncertainty, which worries me. It could still hit any of the major cities of Shanghai, Manila, Taipei, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, or Hanoi. This could be one to watch very closely, the water near Hong Kong exceeds 33C. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:04, 24 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jangmi
It has a name now! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:24, 24 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Up to a STS by JMA now, JTWC put it as a typhoon. Well, it changed track, it would hit Taiwan as a Cat 3. Storm&#39;s Eye 09:52, 25 September 2008 (UTC)

Typhoon Jangmi
Up to a fully fledged typhoon. Still it will be predicted to hit Taiwan as a weakening Cat 4 to Cat 3. Storm&#39;s Eye 21:47, 25 September 2008 (UTC)
 * 100 knots 10-min from the JMA, in consensus with the unofficial 120 knot 1-min from the JTWC. T numbers range from 6.3-6.7, but dang, just LOOK at that thing! http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/4KMIRIMG/2008WP19_4KMIRIMG_200809261730.GIF . The WPAC has clearly kicked it up a notch - Three powerful storms each on the heels of the earlier. Squarethecircle 21:10, 26 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Woah. It's a very fast booming typhoon. Suddenly, it became a Cat 4 from a teeny weeny Cat 1! Storm&#39;s Eye 23:20, 26 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Eye is clearing out more, and mesovortices are swirling around. Check the recent vis for more info. Squarethecircle 23:44, 26 September 2008 (UTC)

Super Typhoon Jangmi
My God, Taiwan's about to get the living shit kicked out of it. This thing is a westpacifician beast. 135 knot winds don't leave much behind. -- SkyFury 05:48, 27 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Expected to weaken to a cat. 4 before hitting Taiwan, and they get one of those every two years or so. What worries me is that there's still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:05, 27 September 2008 (UTC)
 * 135 knots is not the correct estimate. The recon data (YES! WE HAVE RECON IN THE WPAC, W00T!) measured 163 knots 1-minute at flight level, which is 140 knots rounded at the surface. For all practical purposes, this is a category 5 hurricane. (Also, the JMA gives 115 knots 10-min, which makes it the strongest storm since Angela.) In addition, recon measured a pressure of about 901 hPa, and dropping. This thread from Storm2k has most of the recent recon data, if you don't want to go mucking around in Google to find the source data. This is the last vis image before the sun set over Jangmi, and this is the most recent IR image. Also, this storm unofficially surpassed Hondo's 906 hPa satellite-estimated pressure from La Reunion with its recon-estimated 902 surface pressure (JMA has the storm at 910 hPa, however, that information is a few hours old). This means that the storm is unofficially (soon officially, I would not hesitate to guess) the most intense storm of 2008. Squarethecircle 14:45, 27 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Just a further note, I would disregard the JTWC info at this point - they are not following the correct recon flight data, and neither is the JMA (though their wind data is reasonable, since 115 knots 10-min can be interpreted as a 5). God knows why they are wasting the single most valuable contribution to hurricane data known to man. Squarethecircle 16:47, 27 September 2008 (UTC)