Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
We shouldn't archive this in case anyone wants to go to the HOF, and the betting pools need to be updated every now and then as well. The replacement names section can be archived later, in case it needs to be continued furthermore. Ryan1000 16:39, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
10% atm, but will be rather slow to develop, maybe not even until it reaches the western Caribbean. Ryan1000 21:09, September 30, 2012 (UTC)

Invest 96L now. Even though it might become a TS, the models actually recurve it east well away from the Lessers. It probrably won't become more than 50-55 knots anyway. Ryan1000 03:55, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

30%Allanjeffs 12:37, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

40% now, might be Oscar. Ryan1000 20:11, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

60% people Oscar might finally come after two bust.Allanjeffs 00:01, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Oscar's debut as a tropical cyclone. Also, if this does become Oscar, it'll mark the first time since 2003-2005 that the Atlantic Ocean has been able to produce three sucessive seasons of 15+ storms (NOTE: if you count Catarina, 2003-2005 had three back-to-back seasons of 16 storms). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Please be Oscar! It'll be its first naming ever since they created the new lists in 1979. STO12 (talk) 01:21, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

yep me too from the six lists this is the only that has not reach the O letter.the gfs make this a strong tropical storm and the ships a major lets hope for a major as its not going to affect land.Allanjeffs 01:32, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not sure about Oscar-to be becoming a major hurricane. Environmental conditions will only be favorable for 2-3 more days until it turns out to sea and weakens from there on out. And this year has the potential to make more than 15 storms if we keep going on after Oscar. If we get 3 more storms in October and one more in November, we'd have a 19-storm season. That would make 2010-2012 the first time we would have 19 storms in 3 straight years, but it would be a record if we had 18 or even 17 alone. So if we get two more storms after this, it would be a record by itself. Ryan1000 07:36, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Ok.... Oppa Oscar Style!! :D I think he would wander in the ocean 188.223.248.201 16:00, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

70% chance of becoming Tropical Depression Fifteen. Off topic, but the name Oscar reminds me of Oscar the Grouch. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:56, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

80% could become a td tonight or tomorrow morning.Allanjeffs 23:54, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Later this morning. It'll be heading out to sea almost immediately though, moving into the area where Nadine sat in for more than a week. Outside chance at becoming a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:47, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

90% now. Here comes...Ryan1000 12:33, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen
OK!!! NEWS!! Tropical depression 15 is now active!! He is in Western Africa and is expected to be oscar (who will win an oscar award and a gold medal at the paralympics 100m *oscar pistorious, epic!*) and will be only a lil' tropical storm floating just off the coast of the Sahara! Oscar is now HERE! HE WAS BORN THIS WAY! :D So, what d'ya think of this? Oscar being a lil' tropical storm? Not another hurricane again! But I want my patty!! waaaa! *I think Miss Pattz would be stronger though!* 188.223.248.201 18:35, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT OCCUR.Allanjeffs 20:47, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Going to be a fishie.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:13, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Might not become a ts read at what the NHC has to say.
 * Unless TD 15 Michael or Daniels out, it'll just be another Joyce (but this is what I said about Michael, and look what happened). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:16, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Oh no! The path is now beginning to keep it a tropical depression, no! Please be Oscar! D: STO12 (talk) 21:37, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

I call minimal tropical storm out of this, 40-45 mph winds. Nothing more or less. Told you the environment wasn't that favorable. It has one or two days to become Oscar. It'll be dead by this Friday or Weekend. Ryan1000 22:16, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * I want to see Oscar too, but I don't want a waste of a name like Joyce. Let this stay a TD. Unless this season pulls a 2002 or 2006, there should be plenty more opportunities for a decently strong Oscar, especially in the NW Caribbean (Rina, Paula, Richard, Ida, and throw in Paloma for the really crazy stuff). Remember, Michael is our only major of the season so far, and he just barely made the grade. --HurricaneMaker99 23:46, October 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * The last time this list was used in 2006 there was not a single Tropical Depression of that season that didn't become a TS. This year is on par with doing that too, unless this doesn't make it to Oscar. I want it to become something big, but if it meets the qualifications for even only a minor TS, we'll have to go with it. Ryan1000 00:11, October 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * I agree if it meet the qualifications for an upgrade lets do it no matter the intensity.Allanjeffs 01:39, October 4, 2012 (UTC) .FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL

ATLANTIC...Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hm... AL, 15, 2012100400,, BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M, -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:32, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * the 15 tropical storm of the season has develop base on the ATCF the curse may be broken waiting for the NHC for confirmation.Allanjeffs 02:38, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry hurricane Maker but Oscar is here.Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Oscar
Lol yeah I saw. He's here, but already doomed. --HurricaneMaker99 02:59, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

And Oscar the Grouch made his Atlantic debut! And we got a Florence/Joyce 2.0. Sorry, Liz, but Oscar isn't going to win any Oscars Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:12, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yay! We have Oscar! I've been waiting for this all year! This is the first time in Atlantic history a tropical cyclone has been named Oscar, Hooray! Even though it going to be ripped apart pretty soon. STO12 (talk) 03:16, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah. Of course, 2000 would have had Oscar if the last subtropical storm was named, and it still counts as 15 storms overall in that season. He's falling apart already. By tomorrow afternoon, he (and Nadine) will be dead. Ryan1000 11:11, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

When Patty forms if it forms it would be a record breaking storm.Allanjeffs 21:22, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Allan, that depends whether or not you count the South Atlantic. If you do, the record for the most active three sucessive Atlantic seasons will actually be tied (as I said above) (2003 made it to Peter, 2004 made it to Otto + Catarina, 2005 made it to Zeta + the Azores subtropical storm). If you don't, then Patty will indeed be a record breaker. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

2003-2005 had 59 storms in all 3 years, excluding the SAtl. 2010-2012 has had 53 thus far. We'd need to get to Alpha (storm 22) to break 2003-2005's record. If you include the South Atlantic, we'd only need to get to William, since there was Anita in 2010 and Arani in 2011, vs only Catarina in 2004. We'd need 25 storms this year to have 2011-2012 beat 2004-2005 as the most active back-to-back seasons ever, but I wouldn't look forward to seeing that happening. Ryan1000 21:45, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES

THIS EVENING. Apparently he will not win the HAMMYS :P -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:40, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

he keeps getting stronger even though I think this or 60mph will be its peak. I would be very surprised if it becomes a hurricane.Allanjeffs 03:05, October 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * The Oscar joke made me lol. NHC's been awfully cheeky this season. They had fun with Kirk, Nadine, and now Oscar. I was particularly fond of their farewell to Nadine: "Bye bye, Nadine...what a long and strange trip it's been." For future reference guys, please leave sections on recently dissipated storms up for a few days before archiving them. Archiving them as soon as the last advisory is issued is premature and cuts off a potentially active and relevant discussion. As for Oscar, I actually think he's done pretty well, considering the circumstances. I was hoping he was going to stick around for a little longer but that low in the north Atlantic has gone straight up beast mode, dominating most of the Atlantic basin. I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but El Nino is settling in and the Atlantic is already starting to shut down. The Caribbean and GOM are now dominated by westerly shear. There's a chance we could see another brief tropical storm like Oscar, but other than that, I think the season's pretty much over. It made the most of the time it had, but was remarkably short on power with just one major hurricane. -- SkyFury 08:24, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Oscar
Another fail.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:34, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Poof. Without winning any awards. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:02, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Actually the El Niño is faltering skyfury as Dr masters says I think we could squeeze three more named storms and one major probably in the Caribbean and would probably hit Cuba.Allanjeffs 23:27, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Sorry Eric. I'll archive storms a little later after the storm dissipates. Well, Nadine could have her own archive. And no, 2012 isn't over yet. The El Nino was only temporary and we still could get 3-4 named storms before the season is out. Hell, we could move back to La Nina next year. Just because we have some shear now doesn't mean we keep having it. In fact, some models are picking up on a low that could form near the Bahamas next Monday or Tuesday from the trough emerging off the East Coast and that could become Patty. So no, don't give up on this season yet. October has had many nasty surprises, including the most powerful hurricane on record in the Atlantic and the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in over 200 years. I wouldn't quit on 2012 just because it looks bad now that October just begun. I said it was over before at times like this and I really spoke too soon. I won't do that again, especially for a season like this. Ryan1000 03:02, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Hi Oscar! Oh... bye Oscar! And yes Ryan, October looks to be a good, and bad, month for cyclones. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:48, October 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Oh I know there have been some nasty surprises in October, but none of them have happened in 30 knots of shear. I'm not saying Patty won't happen, but I am saying don't expect a storm of any significance for the remainder of the season. Given the increasingly negative and persistent upper level condtions, I seriously doubt there will be another hurricane this year and it wouldn't surprise me if there isn't another storm period. Throughout the Atlantic, shear is exceptionally hostile (up to 60 knots in the GOM, 40-50 in the W. Atl, and 20-30 in the Caribbean). I expect this to continue. I've seen this before. Upper level troughs and mid-latitude frontal systems have been digging deep into the Gulf lately, bringing nasty shear conditions along with them...their season is over. The Caribbean and the rest of Hurricane Alley is dominated by persistent westerly winds. This is unlikely to change for the remainder of the season. There's a chance a storm could find an upper level ridge to camp under for a few days and become an Oscar-like storm. Other than that, we're done. -- SkyFury 07:04, October 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * We still have 3 more weeks until October is over. The season actually undergoes a secondary peak by about October 19, so conditions actually could become more favorable one more time until they die off by November. Even so, we still can't let our guard down either way, since there have been surprises. But then again, not all of those surprises turned out to be what they were initially feared to. Hurricane Rina of last year was one such storm. The precursor storm that would become Rina was forecast to, at one point by the models, crash into Cuba as a monstrous 140 mph major hurricane, but in reality we barely got a major hurricane from Rina (it was upgraded in post-season), and it only lightly tapped the Yucatan as a dying tropical storm. The point i'm saying is, it's only October 7th. October is far from over and it's not out of the question we could get a strong storm in the Caribbean or GOM later this month. Ryan1000 11:59, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

This isn't wholly relevant to Oscar, but 60 knots of shear?!?! Holy cow! I wonder how rough a time a strong hurricane would be having when traveling into such shear conditions? --HurricaneMaker99 02:48, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

It won't last forever. It will settle down one last time in the next week or two until it dies out in November. Our secondary peak is 10 days away. Ryan1000 16:50, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
As I said Eric, never give up on a season. 10% atm, and could be Patty later next week. Ryan1000 17:39, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's in a pretty unfavorable environment though, but is expected to move out of the unfavorable area and possibly develop. Patty hopefully! STO12 (talk) 19:30, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * TBH, I'm more excited about Olivia than 97L. If this ever does become tropical and subtropical, better do it soon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:31, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * After it moves out of the shear over the next few days, we could potentially see Patty, but not in the next 2 days. Ryan1000 12:01, October 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Agree the NHC is flying tomorrow into this system if it continues to organize.Allanjeffs 15:24, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 10%, no Patty I don't think. It's in such an unfavorable environment that development will most likely not happen. Aw well, doesn't mean an invest won't pop up for the rest of the season. right? :/ STO12 (talk) 23:50, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

Actually the gfs is showing three storms in its run.two in the caribbean like 2008 when we have td 16 and Omar and 1 in the Eastern Atlantic like Nana.Allanjeffs 04:58, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Oh, well. Never looked like it had a chance. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

SHIPS briefly expects it to peak at 35 knots in 2 days, but I think that won't happen. Probrably not this one. Ryan1000 13:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

I think this might have a better chance than it has before! I just saw recent satellite loops on the system, and a continuous spin with deep thunderstorm convection around the center is occurring. This might in fact pull a "Jose (2011)" and become Patty! I'm not 100% sure though. STO12 (talk) 03:02, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Sorry, Otto, but 97L is off the TWO now. Doesn't mean it'll pop back up. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

this thing is looking very good right now may become a td later today even though its at 10%Allanjeffs 20:41, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Not expecting that to happen. If it does make it to something, make it to Patty (please). I don't want any unnamed depressions this season. We've already done a great job of that so far, in both the ATL and EPac. I hope 97L doesn't break that curse. Ryan1000 22:24, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">This can be like 2008 the sixteen td didn`t strengh that year.waiting for the two to see the chances of 97L.Allanjeffs 23:26, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

I want this to become either TS Patty or nothing at all. I'd like to see a season with no unnamed depressions, like the 2006 Atlantic season, but they had an unnamed tropical storm discovered in post-season at the same time Beryl formed in July. If we get no unnamed depressions this year in either ATL or EPac (which both have none right now atm), it would be the first time to have no unnamed storms period in either season, assuming there are no post-season tropical storms discovered. Ryan1000 23:55, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Similar to 98L, organization of 97L has increased, and it now has a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:07, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 50% might become a depression but I am doubting a ts hope it doesn`t form unless it becomes named.Allanjeffs 05:49, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The models are split on where 97L will go. Some take it out to sea, while some move it in the opposite direction towards Cuba and the Bahamas. We'll see. Since this and 98L are both at 50%, it's a race to which will become Patty first. The latter would be Rafael, unless one of the two doesn't make it. Ryan1000 13:50, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sixteen
We might not see a TS out of this.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:07, October 11, 2012 (UTC)ç

Actually is a TS now.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 16, 2012101118,, BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,. History has been made for this list.Allanjeffs 20:36, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Patty
<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">now officially in the NHC page.Allanjeffs 20:43, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Did not see that coming.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:16, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * So 97L did make it. So far, so good, but it'll die soon. Ryan1000 21:21, October 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * For the record, this is A.) the seventh Atlantic 'P' named storm on record, AND: B.) The second time in Atlantic history we've seen back-to-back years of 16 named storms (and even this is only if you count 2004's Catarina). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * And the first time we saw 3 straight years of 16 storms in ATL, again only if you count Catarina. If 98L makes it to Rafael, it'll be the first time we got 17 storms for 3 straight years, and we could also do it for 18 and even 19 storms too. That's pretty remarkable. Ryan1000 21:26, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

I just knew it would be Patty! The name Patty does seem like it should be a weak storm, teh larger system should be "Rafael", which in my opinion is a strong storm name. STO12 (talk) 21:42, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">To be honest, I think both this and Rafael will be only tropical storms. Rafael has an outside shot to become a hurricane, but not a very strong one (C1 at most). Ryan1000 00:41, October 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ah, the Atlantic is trying to make me eat my words I see. I didn't think this piece of crap would become anything. If anything was going to develop, I thought it'd be 98L. In October, storms often form along decaying frontal boundaries, but most form in the Gulf. This one's a little stranger. It formed in 20-30 knots of shear and it's practically embedded in a strong frontal system associated with a mid-latitude cyclone, hell of one too (979mb). Looks like the NHC is thinking the front will leave Patty behind and the blast of shear associated with the southwesterly flow along the boundary will blow it to pieces. I agree. -- SkyFury 02:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, like I said on the header for 97L (Patty), never give up on a season. This storm didn't really do much other than steal a name off the list, to be honest, but it did develop in the face of immense wind shear, and it still counts towards the total. Ryan1000 11:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah probably a depression in the next advisory. we could see Sandy and Tony before the month is over. gfs is forecasting a storm in the central Atlantic and a storm in the NW Caribbean.Allanjeffs 17:00, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I knew 2012 wasn't over yet. We still have a chance to run the table. Assuming 98L becomes Rafael, we could get 2-3 more storms in October and another 1-2 in November. Ryan1000 18:03, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * More Amazingly is that we have no storms in July and only two in September and still we get pretty far down the list.Allanjeffs 18:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, we had a record August and pre-season Allan. We never had 4 storms form before July until this year, and only in one other year (2004) did we see an 8-storm August. 4 storms before July+8 storms in August+2 storms in September, and currently 2 in October (expecting a 4-5 storm October), adds up to a very active season. Ryan1000 19:25, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wasn't the only one who's forecast got busted by the recent activity. The Climate Prediction Center did not forecast any tropical development this week in the Atlantic. I don't view my dire prediction as "quitting" on the season. I saw what looked like an increasingly negative pattern developing in the Atlantic. In Patty's case, conditions were prohibative but the storm developed anyway. That's one of the things that makes forecasting so difficult. Sometimes storms don't follow the rules. I did say, however, that if a storm got a high pressure ridge to camp under, it could really do something, and that's exactly what's happening with 98L/Rafael. -- SkyFury 22:32, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Patty
Here goes nothing. Off topic, but I had no idea we would make it this far down in this naming list. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:05, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It still...doesn't want to die... Ryan1000 14:22, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Patty
It's rotted away. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:58, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It failed at living its life, but Patty gets credit in my book for forming period, given the conditions it was in at that time. Ryan1000 17:36, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">hmm.... exactly. pattz a weak storm, but im glad she formed for da first time! yey! love the name!! :D - eats a krabby patty - 188.223.248.201 20:56, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Central Atlantic
Popped on the TWO. Currently at 10% chance for development in the next two days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:36, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Now this system should become Patty, unless the the other systems pulls a "Jose (2011)", then it would be Rafael. STO12 (talk) 23:51, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

If anything, it'll be Patty. 97L is in an enviorment gradually getting worse. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invested and up to 20%. 98L could possibly be a long-term threat, but nothing is expected from it in the next few days. ECMWF is very underwhelmed by this invest. GFS sees it heading northeast of Puerto Rico and heading out to sea without becoming anything significant. It might actually recurve north before it even reaches the Lessers and head out to sea without doing (or becoming) anything. Ryan1000 13:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Now up to 30% as organization improves. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm not sure if 98L is going to be in a real hurry to head north, like the GFS, Euro, and other models are suggesting. I just don't think it will head to Puerto Rico and the Virgins. 98L should head into the Caribbean sea and develop into something when it reaches the Westernmost Caribbean sea. I see no reason why it shouldn't. Ryan1000 17:17, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gale force winds have been reported in heavy squalls from 98L. With a better organization and more conductive conditions, this invest is up to a 40% chance of development for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:04, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Organization even better...50%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:43, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

The models are still strongly suggesting a sharp northward turn from this invest. GFS actually has it completely missing the Lesser Antillies to the east. The others move it to PR and the Virgins. Not one of them thinks this will make it to the western Caribbean, but that's where I would expect 98L to head toward. Ryan1000 13:50, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 70%! Here comes Rafael! STO12 (talk) 23:58, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It'll be heading into Puerto Rico and the Virgins over the next few days, but only as a TS. I'm not expecting a hurricane out of this. Ryan1000 00:41, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I am expecting a hurricane once its cross PR.Allanjeffs 02:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

It might be one eventually, but not before, or while, it hits the Lesser Antillies. They're probrably just gonna get some blustery conditions from this storm, but this will be no Marilyn, Lenny, or Hugo for the folks there. Ryan1000 02:25, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

I am expecting this thing to be a strong tropical storm to cat 1 when it reach PR it looks very good it might strength rapidly really want to know what recon founds tomorrow.Allanjeffs 05:20, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I really just want this to be only a TS when it strikes the islands. I don't want this to be any worse than Klaus (1984 or 1990). Or, it could pull an Omar, which exploded in the northeastern Caribbean yet missed most of the major islands. But we really don't want this to pull a Marilyn or a Lenny. Isaac was notable enough for this season anyways. Ryan1000 11:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">When Upgrade it would go straight to ts Rafael <span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucidagrande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;line-height:17px;">AL, 98, 2012101212,, BEST, 0, 137N, 618W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 150, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, the system is strengthening.Allanjeffs 15:01, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucidagrande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;line-height:17px;">NHC says they've refused to upgrade this storm to Rafael because it hasn't yet acquired a closed low-level circulation despite producing tropical storm force-winds. Once that happens, it will be Rafael. Still not too sure about how strong this will get though. Ryan1000 18:03, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * 90% per STWO.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Who could've called three sucessive years that reached the 'R' name (assuming 98L does so)? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:12, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * It would do so is on the verge of Becoming Rafael.Allanjeffs 21:20, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Rafa is imminent, if it's not already there. Three straight seasons of 17-plus storms is incredible. Hell, back to back 19 storm seasons was absurd. Neither of those things have ever happened. Say what you want about the power outage and the large percentage of weak storms, 17 storms is 17 storms. What makes this stretch so remarkable is the consistency of the activity. El Ninos happen. There's supposed to be one this year. Usually there's a lull every third year. So many things have to go right to get a 17 storm season. To have back to back to back seasons that active is simply remarkable. This storm is definitely one to watch. Most of the models make this at least a moderate tropical storm and some make it a significant hurricane. They also have it becoming a threat to Bermuda, so stay tuned. -- SkyFury 22:15, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rafael
Its here the 17 storm of the season has come.Allanjeffs 23:56, October 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * 40 mph/1006 mb. GOD! The Atlantic ocean won't stop! Stay tuned, guys. The Antilles are about to get a good visit from Rafael. Anyway, this means 2012 is now the seventh most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. BTW, who could've called back to back to back seasons of 17 named storms?! Even if you do count the SAtl, this is the first time in reliable Atlantic records this has happened. Our fifth 'R' named storm has just begun... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:38, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * I did. look at the betting pool I say Patty even though I am loosing by one storm I am not doing bad. I knew this season wouls be active no matter what people thought of this season at first.Allanjeffs 00:50, October 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * NHC doesn't even forecast a hurricane out of this one...Then again, it might be only temporary. Other than some blustery conditions for parts of the Lesser Antillies, this storm shouldn't be to much of a hassle for the folks there. Hell, I'd be surprised if this becomes a Tomas at the very least. And the models are picking up on additional activity after this. As Allan said above, we could get two more storms in the next week per what GFS says, and if that happens, we would be at 19 storms, for 3 straight years. If we get two more storms in October and two more in November, we would run the table, which is what last year and the year before were so agonizingly close to acomplishing. The one main thing that sets this year apart from the two previous years IMO is the lack of a significantly high death toll, which is good. Although the Atlantic has been very active in the past few years, the death tolls from storms in the past 3 years just kept getting lower and lower with every season. 2010>2011>2012. I could care less about the damage caused since it will be rebuilt anyways. I don't know how long the luck streak will live on, but sooner or later, the U.S. will get hit by another massive major hurricane like the 2004-2005 majors that hit the country, and like I've said before, people will get complacent if we go too many years without a strong U.S. major hurricane. Sure we've had Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Isaac since 2005, but all of them could've been much worse than they actually were, and they were nothing compared to the 2004-2005 monsters. On one dreadful day though, that luck will run out, just like it did before... Ryan1000 00:55, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Meh. I though we were gonna run the table in 2010 but just like in 1995, nothing happened in November. Only two seasons have ever run the table, so I seriously doubt it'll happen this year. October has exceeded my expectations, however. We've incredibly already had more storms this month than we did in September, though Leslie spent the majority of its life in September. Also, Irene killed 56 people, Ryan, more than Charley or Frances, and caused $15.6 billion in damage in the United States alone. It was the fifth costliest hurricane of all time. It may not have been a major hurricane in terms of intensity, but it sure was a major hurricane in terms of destruction. Irene's 47 US deaths were more than Wilma's 36, Charley's 30, and weren't far short of Ivan's 54. Only four of the "2004-2005 monsters" killed more people in the US (Frances, Ivan, Katrina and Rita) and nearly all of Rita's 120 and Frances' 48 were indirect deaths. Storms like Katrina, Wilma, Andrew and Ike are watershed events. Catastrophes like those are fortunately extremely rare and usually occur only once a generation, though lately we've averaged roughly two per decade. And the fact that fewer people are dying doesn't necessarily mean storms are any less destructive. A lot of it has to do with whether or not people heed the warnings. -- SkyFury 06:56, October 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * I wasn't really refering to damage since I know they were still destructive, and damage is rebuilt over time anyways. Lives can't be rebuilt. 2010-2012 was not anywhere close to being as deadly as 2004-2005. Katrina killed over 1,800 people, though as you said, not everyone heeds warnings, Stan killed over 1,500 people from deadly flooding in Guatemala, and Jeanne killed 3,000 people in Haiti. Although not all of them came with prior warning and not all of them hit well-prepared places, 3,000 deaths is 3,000 deaths no matter what. None of 2010, 2011, or 2012 even approached 1,000 deaths, but then again, over 400 deaths in all 3 seasons combined is still not negligible. And Irene was the 7th costliest hurricane of all time, not 5th, since Irene caused 15.6 billion in damage at the time in 2011, and damage at the time isn't the proper way to determine damage. Using inflation for today's dollars is the better way to calculate damage, not damage at the time, so Charley and Ivan are 5th and 6th, respectively, because they did more damage than Irene in today's dollars, and Ivan alone caused 20 billion in total damage at the time anyways, not just 13 billion. I know not everything has missed the United States, but still, almost all of the storms that hit the U.S, or anywhere in the Atlantic for that matter, could've been much worse than they were in the past few years. Like you said last year, Irene could've easily been a 100 billion dollar disaster for the big apple had that dry air from Georgia not infiltrated at the last minute. Had that dry air not been in the GOM in the heart of 2008, Gustav could've been much stronger when it hit Louisiana and Ike would've been a re-1900 for Galveston. And had the heart of the Atlantic not had as much shear as it did in the past few years, some of the epic fails we saw could've been devastating storms. While we haven't gotten 100% lucky, the Atlantic hasn't been hit as hard as it otherwise could've been. Ryan1000 11:51, October 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * What two season have run the table?only 2005 have do it if you are including 1933 it was discover by the NHC in its re-analysis project that it only have 20 storms.Allanjeffs 15:11, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

It wouldn't surprise me if Rafael (back on topic) doesn't become a hurricane, but there is always the possibility of flooding in parts of the Lesser Antillies. I know that not everyone values deaths the same everywhere, but 2004 and 2005 had over 3,000 deaths each and that's that. 2010 had over 250 deaths, which is bad, but not as bad as 2004-05. 2011 had about 120 deaths, which again, isn't negligible but not as bad as 2004-05, let alone 2010. 2012 had over 60 deaths thus far, which is lower than 2011, 2010, and 04-05, but still isn't nothing. It's better that the number of deaths overall have dropped from year to year, but still sad to see that the death toll isn't 0. I knew 1933 had 21 operationally, but yeah, one of the storms was deemed to not be a tropical cyclone in post-analysis, like 1950's "Mike" and 1966's "Kendra". Ryan1000 17:26, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

What happen was that they discover that two were the same tropical cyclone and that one that affect Honduras and Belize was a td instead of a ts but they discover a new one so that is why it 20.Allanjeffs 18:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah, one wasn't a TC by itself. There are a few times when the opposite happened, when it was originally thought to be one storm but in reanalysis it was two different storms, like Typhoon Vera in 1986 and Tropical Storm Ione in 1970 EPac season. Ryan1000 19:17, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">ts rafael. gonna be hurricane. i think major. gonna go canada. goes to europe. eats the krabby patty. he'll get a wimbledon trophy and a late-arrived london 2012 gold medal (ye ik the olympics are over) for tennis. agreed ppl? 188.223.248.201 20:53, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Liz, Rusty Rafael won't be even close to a major. The Krabby Patty has pretty much dissected. I doubt Rafael will make it to Europe. But we'll see what "Sandy Cheeks" will do... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:54, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Never say never Andrew Rafael may pull a Michael.expect the unexpect it from the tropics Paul also have a great chance of becoming a major RI will probably start soon with Paul.Allanjeffs 21:39, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

I wouldn't rule out major hurricane strength with Rafael, but if it does make it, it'll be under a stronger influence from the approaching cold front and will probrably miss Bermuda to the east if it becomes a MH. I also do not expect it to become a major hurricane before it leaves the Lesser Antillies. It's certainly not impossible it could become one after that though. If it becomes one, I'd take it to 120-125 mph at it's peak. Ryan1000 22:12, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Hasn't been much updating on this page as of late. Rafael's a 70 mph TS right now. At anytime...He should be a hurricane. Ryan1000 10:57, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The ninth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season has come.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 17, 2012101512,, BEST, 0, 226N, 656W, 65, 983, HU<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, 64, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RAFAEL, D,Allanjeffs 12:40, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Now we just need to wait for NHC to confirm it. I think it could get a little stronger, but at this time, I would rule out Rafael becoming a major. Shear will be on the rise by tomorrow, so by then it should be weakening. Ryan1000 16:35, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Rafael might be retire from what I am seeing has cause a lot of devastation in the islands specially in Guadalupe..Might be another Klaus.Allanjeffs 18:40, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"> Yeah, like I thought earlier, even a TS like Rafael could be problematic for the Lessers, but it all depends. He lingered for quite a while over the islands. Martinique was the island that Klaus hit for France to request his retirement. Guadelupe is also a French territory and they might nominate Rafael if damages were bad enough there too. Ophelia of last year couldn't have been retired by them since Dominica, the island she hit, isn't a French territory, but an independent country from Britan (1978). We'll see. Still not a hurricane though... Ryan1000 21:58, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Rafael
Rafael, now a hurricane. Winds: 75 mph Pressure: 974 mbar. STO12 (talk) 22:59, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

That's very low for a C1 system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:09, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Now officially a hurricane.May be stronger than forecast I say a peak at cat 2 intensity or a high upper cat 1.Allanjeffs 23:12, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 85 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:07, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Rafael might try to make it to cat 2 or 3 intensity, but how much damage it does to Bermuda could play a role in its (potential) retirement, if the flooding in the Lessers wasn't enough. It's heading North-Northeast now, so it might miss Bermuda to the east, but it's still big enough to affect the island significantly. Ryan1000 08:48, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Down to 969 mb. BTW, assuming Rafael doesn't make it to Category 2 status, it'll be the third Category 1 storm this year with a pressure less than 970 mb. Has this ever happened three times in one year? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:47, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Technically, no, but that type of record is a little trivial anyways. It seems Rafael missed Bermuda. At most they got some heavy rainfall, but likely no severe damage. Ryan1000 01:59, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Probably now extratropical. Well, just by looking at wind field analysis you could determine that. GFS indicates that Rafael will have a large circulation (>500 miles) by day five. Starts weakening, and degenerates into a trough over France. Kiewii! 18:51, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael
Declared extratropical while still at hurricane strength. --HurricaneMaker99 20:51, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

the first time I see a the NHC making a hurricane extratropical generally they weaken the storm to ts first before declaring it.Allanjeffs 22:10, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It's not the first time it happened, but either way, he wasn't too much of a hassle. NHC forecasted it to head south in 4 days or so, but I don't think this will pull a Nadine and last endlessly over the northeastern Atlantic. The next area of disturbed weather is going to be forming in the Southwest Caribbean later this week or next week. That could become Sandy. Ryan1000 22:19, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah all the models develop it some take tracks to Florida and others to Cuba and intesity varies some also show Tony and others even show Valerie for the third time in History I think we will reach 20 name storms.Allanjeffs 21:59, October 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">@Allan: What was the third time? I know there was 2005 (28 storms) and 1933 (20 storms), but it's only happened twice in the North Atlantic (but 2010 and 2011 both technically had 20 storms if the South Atlantic is counted). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:29, October 18, 2012 (UTC)

He said "for the third time", Andrew, which would be counting this year if we get there. Intensity forecasts for future Sandy (or Tony) vary, but from what I'm seeing, the models forecast two storms to come in the next week from a powerful pulse from the Madden-Julian Oscillation. One will be a weak TS and head out to sea like Patty did. The other could be a sizeable hurricane heading through Jamacia, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually, possibly Florida. That area of thunderstorms is still too far out to tell what will happen to it, but if two storms develop as the Euro and GFS suggest, we will have back to back to back seasons of 19 storms each. 2011 only ended at the "S" name, but 94L was discovered to be a TS in post-season, so everything should've been moved back one storm each. Also, there are a few storms this year, like 98L of late July (which even I doubted at first) and 94L of late September, which could be upgraded to TS's in post-season. If both of those are upgraded, we would be at 19 storms right now anyways. However, all of this is a bit too far ahead to see for sure what will happen. Speaking of upgrades, I wonder when the NHC will release the TCR's for storms this year. They haven't released any of them since they finished Aletta a while back. Ryan1000 00:14, October 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Rafael is currently a strong (965 mbar) extratropical cyclone moving toward southeast. Isaac829  E-Mail  03:32, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

AOI.Central Atlantic
On second thought, maybe this could become Sandy first. 10%. Ryan1000 17:04, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one is most likely to become Tony instead of Sandy. This one is in a worse environment than the other. STO12 (talk) 18:10, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't rule it out, but this one indeed could become Sandy first. We don't know though Otto. We all thought 98L would become Patty first, but 97L miraculously made it to Patty before 98L made it to Rafael. Same could happen with this one. We'll see though. Ryan1000 19:20, October 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * For me, I agree with Otto, but this thing could beat the other AOI to Sandy. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:02, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This AOI definitely has a chance to beat the other one to the name period, but with regards to overall peak intensity, I would be much more concerned about the Caribbean AOI than this one. Ryan1000 23:26, October 19, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
And it's finally invested. Both 90L and 99L should become Sandy and Tony, but maybe not in that order. Ryan1000 15:21, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Organization improves...30%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:45, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Might become something after all.Allanjeffs 00:14, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I knew this would become something. Tony is on his way... Ryan1000 01:32, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Don`t count on him until he has form it may very well start to become disorganized.even though I am rooting fort this to become Tony so we can 19 storms.Allanjeffs 02:23, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

I'm definitely not writing this one off yet. Nothing has changed since last night though. Both invests are at 60 and 30% respectively. However, NHC expects conditions to become more favorable later today and tomorrow until it moves out to sea in the middle of this week, when it'll be too late for it to become named. I still expect this to become Tony. Ryan1000 11:21, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

This one is becoming better organized might become a td tomorrow or Tueday.Allanjeffs 22:57, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 40%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:40, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yep, I still expect this one to develop. It probrably will become Tony tomorrow or Tuesday, assuming 99L beats this to being named Sandy. However, we can't be sure of it yet. Ryan1000 23:49, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Up to 50%Allanjeffs 12:51, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Just a little more, 90L... Ryan1000 16:18, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

up to 70 Tony its on its way.Allanjeffs 17:51, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Time is very much of the essence for 90L. It only has a 24-36 hour window to become Tony (assuming TD18 becomes Sandy first). From what I've seen, it seems to be making the most of it. -- SkyFury 17:58, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * AFCF has 19L. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:53, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Almost here... Ryan1000 20:17, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its td 19 may become Tony soon we get two systems only today.now we almost have 19 ts.At this rate I think we may reach Valerie.Allanjeffs 20:32, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:37, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think we will get to William. We can run the table, and I wouldn't be surprised if we do. Ryan1000 20:46, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I agree I think we may reach William. I think we may have one storm in the NW or SW Caribbean and one like Sean last year.and we could always get one in reanalysis projects.Allanjeffs 20:57, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

AOI.Central Caribbean
Make that two. Also at 10%. So which will become named first? I think it'll be this one, but ATL is back in gear again. This and the above AOI are future Sandy and Tony in my book. Ryan1000 18:01, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one should become Sandy first. It is in an increasingly favorable environment and should begin to slowly develop. The other could possibly become Tony if conditions light up. STO12 (talk) 18:11, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some of the model runs are apocalyptic with this storm, but as I said, I think both of these will become named storms. I honestly could care less whether this is Sandy or Tony, becuase I don't like the looks on this thing. Today is the secondary peak of the Atlantic season. From here on out, conditions should start going downhill in the basin, but maybe we can sneak two more storms in until October is over. If we get two more in November after these two develop, we'll run the table. Ryan1000 19:20, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * IMO, this AOI will be the one that makes us hit the 'S' name in back to back to back years, since the NHC says conditions are gradually favorable. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:54, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * However, that doesn't discourage me from giving up on the AOI in the Central Atlantic. If it becomes named, we'll have 19 storms for 3 straight years, though technically not the "T" name because 2011 only got 19 from the post-season upgrade on 94L. Ryan1000 21:18, October 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * This one will probably be Sandy but the NHC has say that condition are going to be more conductive for the Aoi in the Central Atlantic so it may be Tony and I think we might get Valerie if this two systems develop.Allanjeffs 22:46, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * That's why I said it's not impossible for this to be Tony and the Atlantic AOI to become Sandy. But it depends, because things could change. To be honest, I actually think that the AOI in the Central Atlantic could become Sandy first, but this one should become much stronger in the long run. The AOI in the Central Atlantic shouldn't get stronger than 50-60 mph. Some models already suggest this could become a near-major hurricane in ~5 days. This storm is the one we need to watch out for, but I expect us to get 2 more storms out of both these AOI's before October is over. After that, we'd need a 2-storm November to run the table. I think a 1-storm November is most reasonable, but it's not impossible we could get to William. Ryan1000 23:26, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * up to 20% I think this one will move into Central America the one that the gfs is developing develops next week near friday or thursday is not the same one.Allanjeffs 00:02, October 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ah. That being said, that storm would be Valerie, assuming this and the above AOI become Sandy and Tony respectively. Ryan1000 01:07, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. Actually, SHIPS only sees this becoming a moderate tropical storm, not a hurricane, before moving into Central America. Meanwhile, the AOI in the Central Atlantic is up to 20%, and may be invested soon itself. Ryan1000 12:49, October 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Whoa! Up to 60%! Did not expect this. The models aren't strengthening it much but are taking it generally toward south Florida. The global models are even taking it east of Florida over eastern Cuba. -- SkyFury 18:22, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy here we come! STO12 (talk) 18:51, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Ugggh. I want next year's season to be more active, because they have funny names like Humberto and Olga and Dorian and Nestor!! I want humberto to be a massive cat 5 if I had my own way bc it is a funny name :( But.... I see sandy becoming a major? I am seeing her like Rina (the Mexican hurricane with the Indian/Japanese name?)


 * 1) <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:sans-serif;line-height:19.200000762939453px;">Rina is a female name of Hindu origin meaning "Queen"


 * 1) <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:sans-serif;line-height:19.200000762939453px;">Rina is a female name of Japanese origin, where it is proportionately used the most in the twentieth century

<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:sans-serif;line-height:19.200000762939453px;">Ok anyway.... So... I now think the list would get up to Sandy? Sandy Cheeks much? Will she see her Danny (Tony?) I think not, but good luck to Sandy! 188.223.248.201 19:09, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">And you thought 2012 was over Eric. Far from it in my book. =) As I said, both this and 90L will probrably become named storms, though 90L will take a little longer. And no Liz, this won't do much, I don't think. Initially I thought 99L would become something big in the Caribbean, but now I'm starting to reconsider that. It'll probrably be just a heavy rainmaker for much of the western Caribbean. Conditions aren't favorable for explosive intensification with this storm, but they are favorable enough for it to become named at the very least. Ryan1000 19:36, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Actually Ryan some of the models are strengthening this fast Sandy may become our second major hurricane .third in my book I think Gordon was one.they dive possible Sandy in the southwestern Caribbean then taking it straight to Cuba like Paloma.stay tuned I am not sure if 90L will be named.Allanjeffs 19:58, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Sandy Cheeks! So, she'll probably give rain to Nicaragua. And Eric, how's your late season prediction going? Doesn't seem too accurate. Off topic, but does anyone think we will hit William this year? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:08, October 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * After appearing to be developing back in September and into early October, El Nino has retreated. Shear was prohibitive for much of September but has significantly abated. The activity in the Caribbean this late in the season is extremely unusual for what was supposed to be an El Nino year. This tells me that El Nino is simply non-existent. These are the things that make forecasting so difficult. I don't think anybody expected El Nino to be this much of a no show in October. The Climate Prediction Center is saying that this is confounding their winter forecast, leading to higher than usual uncertainty. I still highly doubt we'll run the table. I thought we'd do it in 2010, when conditions were much more favorable, but November was dead quiet. Models don't do a lot with this, but they do develop it. It could be a rainmaker for Jamaica and eastern Cuba next week. Still not sold on 90L, it's got a long way to go if it wants a name. -- SkyFury 21:04, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Actually Eric, I expected us to get an active October. Just because we didn't have a record September in named storms doesn't mean October will be less active (*cough*2005). We will likely get two more storms from these two invests and then we'll need just two storms in November for us to run the table. I wouldn't rule 90L out though. I do expect 90L to develop Eric, but it'll just take a few days. It wouldn't completely surprise me if it doesn't become named, but I am not quitting on it yet. It just needs a little bit more organization and 5 mph more for it to become Tony, and because NHC expects shear to decrease by later today/tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me if it's named by then. Allan, the conditions in the western Caribbean Sea are not the same now as they were in 2001, 2005, or 2008. 99L does have some shear and dry air to deal with, so I highly doubt Sandy-to be will make it past category 1 intensity, if that. Most of the models take 99L (Sandy) moving west, maybe slightly south of due west and becoming named at the least, but then the trough off the eastern seaboard will dive down and pull it northward towards Jamacia and eastern Cuba, then out to sea, being sheared all along the way. I see no reason why it should do anything else. As of now actually, NONE of the models expect this to be a monstrous category 4 or 5 in the Caribbean sea, ect, so don't count on that happening with this storm. HWRF and GFDL are the closest models to exploding this in the Caribbean, each making it about cat 3, but I can't be inclined to believe them just yet. However, no matter how you justify it, 18 storms is 18 storms. And for 3 straight years too. That's just downright incredible. I can't believe we're about to do it. Ryan1000 23:34, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Better convection...70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:30, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Here comes Sandy... Ryan1000 15:22, October 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * This forecast has gotten interesting. Most of the models have this becoming a very large, deep system in the western Atlantic, potentially affecting the east coast. At the very least, it looks like this storm is gonna be a big rainmaker for the Caribbean islands and a big wave maker for the east coast. Also of note, the GFS also develops 90L and appears to have it remaining tropical all the way to Portugal. This is gonna be an interesting week. -- SkyFury 01:40, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Told you not to give up on 90L. In the case of this, I noticed some models take this storm recurving towards the east coast, but I don't see why it should. I think the trough should recurve this storm out to sea before it reaches anyone. Wave action will be heavy, but this storm shouldn't be a historic storm for the eastern seaboard like the 1991 Perfect Storm. We could easily make it to 19 storms though. Amazing. Ryan1000 03:08, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * I didn't say I'd given up on 90L, I said it had a long way to go and I still believe that. The window is closing for 90L as shear is expected to increase in a few days. In any case, it's not gonna hit anything. My primary concern is 99L. -- SkyFury 05:05, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:29, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:29, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen
And now numbered. Likely to become Sandy soon. Ryan1000 16:18, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * NHC describes conditions as "highly conducive", saying there is a 50-50 chance of RI within the next 24-36 hours. Given these conditions, it should become Sandy later today and possibly reach hurricane strength before striking Jamaica and eastern Cuba in a couple of days. An extremely odd evolution is playing out in the models. Many of them have TD18/Sandy taking on hybrid characteristics once it reaches the western Atlantic. This almost reminds me of Noel back in 2007 that caused major flooding in Haiti and evolved into a strong extratropical storm over the open Atlantic. This storm could wind up being very similar, though hopefully causing less death and destruction. -- SkyFury 18:05, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * UGHHH! -_- Not another hurricane again, for God's sake! When will these hurricanes end?!?! but... BRING IT ON SANDY I'm seeing her like a rina :| I WANT NEXT YRS SEASON MORE ACTIVE! !-_-! BETTER NAMES! Anyway.... so, Im seeing sandy blow up to a major or a 2 188.223.248.201 18:37, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sandy

 * the 18 of the season has come.<span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;">...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY....Allanjeffs 20:59, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;">Model are Predicting RI with this one may approach Major hurricane status as it approach Jamaica.Allanjeffs 21:07, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * The reason why I don't think Sandy will become very strong is the time frame it has. It only has about one day until it's going to encounter unfavorable conditions from the trough off the east coast. And because it has a very small circulation it is very vulnerable to even slight changes in outer atmospheric changes. If that trough wasn't off the eastern seaboard, this storm would be able to explode to a cat 4 or 5 with very little effort. However, since it doesn't have a lot of time, I don't think she'll get past category 1 strength, let alone TS intensity. Ryan1000 20:17, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:monospace;text-align:center;"> Oh not again! How are we ever gonna get a nice 2013 Season? Humberto, Dorian, Nestor and those funny names if this year is sooooo active? Hopefully, its looking like Sandy would be a weakling. Weak Rina. Weak Paula. Tropical storm only. Get it? 188.223.248.201 21:12, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

It might explode, but...It still has only 2 days until NHC expects landfall in Jamacia. And we don't want it to explode because that would lead to Sandy harming people in Jamacia. =( Ryan1000 21:31, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

I see a re-Katrina (1981) or Irene (1999) from this. BTW, I think both 2012 and 2013 will have 21 named storms. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:00, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * 19 has been the magic number for the past couple of years. We're staring down the barrel of three straight years of 19 storms. Unbelievable. It's gonna be very interesting to watch and see what Sandy does over the next few days. -- SkyFury 23:48, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy's got a bit of organizing to do before she can do much else. She's likely going to become a strong tropical storm at the least, but I'm not sure about her becoming a hurricane yet. She's still in the formative stage atm, but tonight, things are going to get interesting. She could get much better organized, but by Wensday morning she'll be running into wind shear. Jamacia better keep a very close eye on this storm. Sandy could be a very nasty surprise for the folks there, like Paloma was to the Caymans and Cuba in November 2008. Ryan1000 00:00, October 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hmm.... Isaac829  E-Mail  00:04, October 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some models do see Sandy becoming a large, powerful storm off the east coast and at the same time, they see the cold front reversing direction and going back over the great lakes. If that happens, New England might get slammed by this thing. And for a storm this late in the season, that's gonna be a very nasty surprise for the northeast. It would make the 1991 "perfect" storm look like chicken sh!t. I want Sandy to follow the paths of other storms this late in the season and head out to sea, but not everyone expects that. Currently, I'm worried about Jamacia. However, it's not out of the question New England could get hit in the long run. Ryan1000 00:19, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:
 * Alberto - 0% - No.
 * Beryl - 10% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Chris - 0% - It's a early hurricane, but I still doubt it.
 * Debby - 15% - Wasn't as bad as I expected.
 * Ernesto - 10% - See you in 2018, Ernie.
 * Florence - 0% - Probably not.
 * Gordon - 5% - See Beryl.
 * Helene - 0% - Less damage than Ernesto.
 * Isaac - 45% - Maybe and maybe not.
 * Joyce - 0% - Florence's twin.
 * Kirk - 0% - See ya next time!
 * Leslie - 5% - See Ernesto.
 * Michael - 0% - Nope.
 * Nadine - 0% - See Gordon.
 * Oscar - 0% - Can't you tell?
 * Patty - 0% - See Oscar.
 * Rafael - 10% - See Debby.

Isaac829 E-Mail  12:02, October 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. <font color="Blue">Darren 23   Edits |Mail  01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that, meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. <font color="Blue">Darren 23   Edits |Mail  15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Alberto - 0.1% - Some slight effects in the Southeast, but it's not likely.
 * 2) Beryl - 10% - Lots of Memorial Day hype, but damage will probably not be enough for retirement.
 * 3) Chris - 0.01% - A rare and unusual storm! The 0.01% is for what he accomplished.
 * 4) Debby - 20% - Loads of flooding in Florida.
 * 5) Ernesto - 25% - No Emily.
 * 6) Florence - 0% - NO.
 * 7) Gordon - 5% - I underestimated your damage in the Azores.
 * 8) Helene - 2% - Gave Mexico some rain.
 * 9) Isaac - 60% - Everyone, call me crazy, but a storm causing $2 billion is NOTHING to giggle at. It is almost safe to say that all our Atlantic "I" names are now replacements of previous ones.
 * 10) Joyce - 0% - Ususally, I don't post a storm's retirement chance while it's spinning, but Joyce has no hope of going.
 * 11) Kirk - 0% - See you in six years!
 * 12) Leslie - 4% - Newfoundland made it out okay.
 * 13) Michael - 0.05% - Amazing unexpected major, but really, I just gave Mike 0.05% for shoving the word "intensity" in my cheeks.
 * 14) Nadine - 2% - Gave the Azores some rain.
 * 15) Oscar - 0% - Never in a million years.
 * 16) Patty - 0.1% - Did something in the Bahamas.
 * 17) Rafael - 10% - Hit the Antilles and Bermuda.


 * We've started this already? Really? Lol. -- SkyFury 21:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I mentioned it's not worth the trouble to start it after just few (fish) storms in the season. Unless Debby turns out to be threatening for Corpus Christi, I won't be posting mine for a while. Ryan1000 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's a little to early to do retirements, the next chance for me to post mine will be when a big hurricane is threatening a land mass, Debby came close, but it just decided to be picked up by the trough. 96.242.128.215 18:03, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

My Percentages:
 * 1. Alberto: 0% - Only slight effects.
 * 2. Beryl: 2% - Not alot of damage.
 * 3. Chris: 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's about it.
 * 4. Debby: 25% - Some flooding in Florida.
 * 5. Ernesto: 25% - Effects not damaging enough.
 * 6. Florence: 0% - See you in 2018.
 * 7. Gordon: 15% - Probably not much in Europe
 * 8. Helene: 10% - Didn't amount to much.
 * 9. Isaac: 60% - Looks like Isaac is our first real retirement contender.
 * 10. Joyce: 0% - Joyce, you didn't have a choice.
 * 11. Kirk: 0% - Kirk won't affect anyone.
 * 12. Leslie: 10% - Newfoundland turned out okay.
 * 13. Michael: 0% - First major of the season, but no.
 * 14. Nadine: 5% - Azores made out okay.
 * 15. Oscar: 0% - Nope.
 * 16. Patty: 0% - Nothing, really.
 * 17. Rafael: 20% - I think it didn't hit any areas as hard as expected.

Simlover123 (talk) 03:08, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

My turn

Alberto:1% unsual doesn`t mean retirement

Beryl: 10% rare may storm but not a lot of damage. it even help with th drought

Chris: 0% rare don`t earn retirement

Debby: 30% a lot of flood in Florida and tornadoes but no allison

Ernesto: 25% probable a cat 2 but no a lot of damage for Mexico standards

Florence:0% Meh... see you in 2018

Gordon:7% don`t know if he produced damge but if he did maybe not a lot May do some in the Azores

Helene:5% Fail even though you kill two people

Isaac:85% the thing is it would be a bust if you stay with at least 5billion dollars in damage you are out imo even Dr Masters think you are gone.

Joyce:0% FAIL!!! even Florence was better than you I pity storms like you.

Kirk 0% you were near major hurricane but no effects on land

Leslie 5% just some winds to Newfoundland

Michael 0% the most beautiful storm of the season but no

Nadine 5% some impacts after all

Oscar 0% Do I even need to explain it.

Patty0% you won`t I am pretty sure

Rafael 30% damage in the antilles.it might go up or down but first I want to see the TCR for any changes in my estimate with this one.

Allanjeffs 20:41, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Now that we've had a decent number of storms, I'll do mine. --HurricaneMaker99 16:44, August 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto: 0% - Gets points for the early kickoff, but if there was any impact, it was negligible.
 * Beryl: 10% - This storm was amazing to watch. Second pre-season storm for the first time in 104 years, second May storm for the first time in 125 years, strongest pre-season U.S. landfall on record, strongest pre-season storm in 42 years (Hurricane Alma 1970)... the fact that Beryl accomplished all of these meteorological achievements without ever becoming a hurricane makes it seem all the more badass. Impact, however, was fairly minor, even though the timing sucked.
 * Chris: 0% - Put on a freakshow in the far northern Atlantic, but didn't hurt anybody in the process.
 * Debby: 15% - I'm skeptical about the damage figure being as low as $42.5 million. Take a look at this. 28.78 inches of rain? Wow. With such a large area receiving 7+ inches of rain, I wouldn't necessarily expect retirement-worthy figures, but still.
 * Ernesto: 10% - Wasn't as bad as Arlene last year, if stronger.
 * Florence: 0% - Gets an F.
 * Gordon: 10% - It looks like the Azores made it out OK.
 * Helene: 2% - Looked very sickly when it made landfall in Mexico, so I doubt there's much damage there. I also doubt that the damage and 2 fatalities in Trinidad & Tobago will count since they were from the remnants of then-TD 7, but then they wouldn't be enough for retirement anyway.
 * Isaac: N/A - Still active, but I'm growing increasingly concerned about Mississippi.
 * Joyce: 0% - At least Florence was respectably strong.

Ryan grand has made his speech: Ryan1000 00:56, October 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - Alberto wasn't a "fail" because it formed 2 weeks early, but no impacts, so no retirement.
 * Beryl - 5% - I give Beryl some credit for her early formation, landfall, and impacts, but it wasn't that bad; in fact, it was helpful for relieving the drought in that part of the lower 48.
 * Chris - 0% - I gotta say, I'm impressed Chris managed to pull of a hurricane, but let's be serious here. No impacts, no retirement.
 * Debby - 30% - Over 300 million isn't negligible, but for retirement, it's just not enough.
 * Ernesto - 25% - He did a sizable 250 million in damage, but still likely won't be retired.
 * Florence - 0% - Little Flo didn't pack a blow...Yeah, she's the last original "F" name from the 1979-now lists (like Isaac is the last original "I" name), but sorry Flo, no chance of retirement. Better luck in 2018.
 * Gordon - 10% - It certainly caused some impacts in the Azores, but probrably not enough for retirement.
 * Helene - 5% - Very little impact.
 * Isaac - 60% - Damage is about 2 billion, with 44 deaths, though mostly in Haiti. Retirement's a maybe here.
 * Joyce - 0% - You have no choice Joyce. Try again in 2018.
 * Kirk - 0% - Captian Kirk shall not live long and prosper. He'll be back in 2018.
 * Leslie - 10% - Wasn't too bad for Newfoundland.
 * Michael - 0% - An unexpected major, but it still didn't hit land.
 * Nadine - 5% - Hit the Azores but nothing severe. Partial credit for how long she lasted.
 * Oscar - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Patty - 0% - It existed. Nothing else to say here.
 * Rafael - 15% - The Lessers made it out ok and Bermuda wasn't hit too hard either. Extratropical impacts in Newfoundland don't count. Sorry Rafael. =( See you again in 2018.
 * Sandy - ?? - Nothing yet.

My predictions: Andros 1337 (talk) 23:07, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - <1% - very minor effects on the East Coast.
 * Beryl - 10% - strongest pre-season storm to hit the U.S., although effects were minor.
 * Chris - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Debby - 20% - moderate effects, but nothing too severe.
 * Ernesto - 15% - some moderate effects, although Mexico has seen much worse before.
 * Florence - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Gordon - 10% - some impact on the Azores, but nothing severe.
 * Helene - 5% - minor impact.
 * Isaac - 60% - Current damage estimate is $3 billion.
 * Joyce - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Kirk - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Leslie - ?? - to early to determine, however, Bermuda should be watching this storm.

The Great Seer Speaketh: -- SkyFury 02:28, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto: 3% - This storm did cause rough surf along the east coast that required several water rescues.
 * Beryl: 15% - Beryl was amazing. It was damn near a hurricane when it hit Florida...in May! Crazy. I was flying home from London the day it made landfall and we were wondering if it was gonna affect us. Turns out it didn't but it was definitely interesting. Killed six people but didn't cause much damage.
 * Chris: 0% - Probably made Grand Banks fishing a little interesting though. It was a beautiful storm.
 * Debby: 25% - Caused very severe flooding across northern Florida and killed nine people.
 * Ernesto: 15% - Raised hell, but in the end, it wasn't much. It did kill seven people.
 * Florence: 0% - Fell on its face way out in no man's land. Not even sure the Cape Verdes got a drop of rain.
 * Gordon: 5% - It got fun in the Azores for a bit.
 * Helene: 10% - Caused some minor flooding in Mexico, killed 2.
 * Isaac: 60% - Isaac is a borderline retirement case. New Orleans's $14 billion super levees did their job but Isaac caused incredible flooding in surrounding parishes and it may yet get worse. Death tolls and damage figures have gone up. Right now, the death toll sits at about nine in the US and 44 total with damage estimates at $3-4 billion. That's a pretty good case but we'll have to wait and see. If the US formally requests its retirement, it will probably be retired.
 * Joyce: 0% - Isaac's outflow had her taken outside and shot in the face lol.
 * Kirk: 0% - The bad Star Trek jokes will return in six years. See you in 2018 Captain Kirk! Godspeed.
 * Leslie: 5% - Surfers loved it and it raised some hell in Newfoundland, but overall didn't do much.
 * Michael: 0% - It was damn fun to watch though.
 * Nadine: 2% - Gets a full % just for effort. It hit the Azores twice. Amazing.
 * Oscar: 0% - Nothing to see here.
 * Patty: 0% - Nope.
 * Rafael: 10% - Caused some flooding in the Leeward Islands that killed one person and the extratropical system wreaked havoc in Newfoundland.
 * (to be continued)

Here's mine (Liz) It's time for the Kiwi predictions, based on damage and epicness. Kiewii! 16:19, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto = 1/10. Break the mould.
 * Beryl = 2/10. She wasn't that bad after all...
 * Chris = -1/10. Greenland fail.
 * Debby = 3.5/10. Debz, did you flood Florida? Debby: Yes I did but I don't think I'll be kicked out of the list yet.
 * Ernesto = 4.5/10. When I walk on the islands, this is what I see. Everybody stops and staring at ME, I got water in my squirtgun and I ain't afraid to squirt it, squirt it, squirt is, I'm Ernie and I know it. (Ernie: I WON'T GET KICKED OFF THE LIST!)
 * Florence = 0/10. I think the machine broke down....
 * Gordon = 2/10. Caused a Portuguese hurricane party, but was not like Ramsey. Good gordon! :D
 * Helene = 1/10. Umm... The Carribbean saw much worse. But H storms are known for unpredictibility.
 * Isaac = 9/10. That was like another Katrina, but weaker! :(
 * Joyce = 0/10. Florence's sister.
 * Kirk = 0/10. Nice and kind.
 * Leslie = 2/10. ok cool les
 * Michael = 1/10. THRILLER! THRILLER NIGHT! Ok, this storm fails 100% when it comes to landfall, but good work on the major part.
 * Nadine = 0/10. Even Cheryl Cole could do better than that! Come on Nadine, you fail 999%. Nadine: OH I'm insatiable (not really lol.) But... nadine is soooooo cooooool bc she gets an olympic gold medal from london 2012 for lasting long!! :D congrats dina!! Nadine: OMG TYVM!!! I LOVE YOU ALL!!!! WIGGLE WIGGLE WIGGLE WIGGLE WIGGLE YEAH!!!
 * Oscar = 0/10. Can't beat Oscar Pistorious in the 100m Paralympic final.
 * Patty = -9/10. I've eaten the Krabby Patty. Cheese flavour. Tastes good. McDonalds. I'm lovin it.
 * Rafael = ??? Let's see if he can beat Roger Federer....
 * 188.223.248.201 19:52, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0%
 * Beryl - 1%
 * Chris - 1% - Epic.
 * Debby - 1%
 * Ernesto - 2%
 * Florence - 0%
 * Gordon - 30% - Epic.
 * Helene - 1%
 * Isaac - 65%
 * Joyce - 0%
 * Kirk - 1% - Epic.
 * Leslie - 10%
 * Michael - 10% - Epic.
 * Nadine - 30% - Super epic.
 * Oscar - 0%
 * Patty - 0%

Replacement names
This might be a bit soon, but since we have a reasonable canidate for retirement, anyone have suggestions for Isaac? I know we're desperately running out of (descent) male "I" names, but I have a few here: Of these five, my personal pick would be Icarus. Ryan1000 22:11, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Icarus
 * Ignatius
 * Ioan
 * Irving
 * Ichabod

Here are mine: And please don't tell me the names have to be of English, Spanish, or French origin, since there was never such a requirement by the WMO. Andros 1337 (talk) 23:01, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Italo
 * Italus
 * Innocenzo
 * Ippolito
 * Ignazio
 * Inigo
 * Inocencio
 * Ildefonso
 * Isandro
 * Iago
 * Immanuel
 * Indigo
 * Irwin
 * Izzy (Yes, this can be a male name)
 * Isamu
 * Ifor
 * Ilswyn

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I like the names, though a few of them sound weird to me. I'll stick with Icarus. Also, Irwin's not a possibility IMO since it is already in use on the EPac; 2011 most rescently. Ignazio is a little confusing with Ignacio, as is Ignatius, but if the WMO can have two variants of the same name on both the ATL and EPac lists (i.e. Frank and Franklin, 2010 EPac and 2011 ATL), I wouldn't rule it out. I don't think the exact same name can be on both lists at the same time though, because if a severe Atlantic hurricane named Irwin hit Mexico and they requested it to be retired, the EPac Irwin would have to be retired as well to avoid confusion, and we'd need two new "I" replacements. And yeah, names don't have to be of English, French, or Spanish origin. Karl of 2010 is German, Igor of 2010 was Russian, ect. Ryan1000 23:49, August 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Ion

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Iden :this one

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Iron

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Ira: or this one can be the replacement of Isaac.

<p style="margin-left: 24px">IcariusAllanjeffs 01:04, September 1, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Here are my replacements:

We really don't have many unweird "I" names. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 01:14, September 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Isa
 * Ila (Arabic name)
 * Ilya (Russian name)
 * Iestin (variant of Justin) (my pick)
 * Immanuel
 * Innocente
 * Innocent
 * Ioan (too similar to Ione?)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think Ioan is too confusing with Ione, but it could be. I personally pronounce them differently. I just thought a few of Andross's "I" names looked weird. Not all though, and we don't have as many "I" names as we do other names. Isa sounds feminine, but it could be either, even though it sounds weird. Ryan1000 03:24, September 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * My pick would probably be either Irving or Iggy. --HurricaneMaker99 14:10, September 1, 2012 (UTC)

I almost hope Isaac won't be retired because we're running out of 'I' names lol: The WMO has proven they are not shy about selecting Bible names, so any of this is fair game. Irvin and Ira are probably my favorite of this list. Irvin may be a little too close to Irwin, which is in use in the EPAC and Ira may be too close to Ida, which is in use, but I doubt either of those would present a problem. My concern is that, even though there are some good names remaining, that they're gonna start picking ridiculous stuff like Dorian in 2007 and Gonzalo in 2008. -- SkyFury 02:51, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Irvin
 * Irving
 * Immanuel
 * Innocente
 * Ingram
 * Ibrahim
 * Innis
 * Ioan
 * Ira
 * Ishmael (maybe there are some Moby Dick fans at the WMO)
 * Isa (was used in the West Pacific in 1997, it was one of the many Cat 5s that year)
 * Izzy

Wouldn't Isaiah be possible? 65.34.84.50 03:18, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gonzalo was a joke. Gary would have been my personal pick for Gustav, but they had to pick that. Ian would have been my pick for Ike in 2008 (which also replaced Typhoon Ike in 1984), but Ian wasn't used as a replacement until Igor got the boot in 2010. Fernand was a complete F**k up; Fernando would have been the better choice by far. And we still have some descent "I" names left, but hopefully the WMO won't pick anything stupid. Ryan1000 05:20, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Robbie, Isaiah is too similar to Isaias, Ike's replacement. My replacement for Isaac, as said above, is Iestin. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 05:50, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'd pick Irving. Irving was already used in the WPac basin in the early 90's. 112.201.177.59 11:46, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Andrew please no. I can't even pronounce it. Ryan, I consider "Ferndand" to be a typo and will always use "Fernando" unless arm twisted. Hell, "Ferdinand" would've been better. "Dorian" was the worst though. There were so many great 'D' names to chose from: Derek, Darren, Daryl...the list goes on and on, but they chose that. Unbelievable. The WMO seems to have favored short names recently (Ike, Ida, Don, Ian), especially for 'I' storms, which is why I give a slight edge to "Ira". Of the seven 'I' names that have been retired (all in the past 11 years), five have been replaced by names of four letters or less. So I would look at the shorter names as being the most likely. But, again, predicting what the WMO is gonna do is like predicting what these hurricanes are gonna do. -- SkyFury 19:16, September 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * "There were so many great 'D' names to chose from: Derek, Darren, Daryl..." ...Dylan? ;) (though FWIW, I'm in the minority that likes Dorian... but still) --HurricaneMaker99 21:33, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yo. Liz here.
 * Mmm.... Probably Ivor, Ismail, Ibby, Irving, Irvo, or Iggy to replace Isaac. Something nice but not too silly.
 * Silliest Hurricane Names Yet:


 * Humberto?
 * Fabian? (Fab Ian?)
 * Dorian? (Door Ian?)
 * Olga?
 * Nestor? (Birds have Nestors.)
 * "Isiahhs?" spelt wrong?
 * Fernand? (Ferdinand? Fernando?!?)
 * Gonzalo (Rip off of gonzalez)
 * Joaquin? (Joachim, much?)
 * Christoble? (Superpower?)

Epac now...
 * Jova?
 * Bud?
 * Pillar?
 * Ignahcio?
 * Dora the Explorer?!
 * Nada?
 * Fasto? (What on earth is a Fasto?)
 * Polo? (Water Polo? Or maybe lyrics from Nicki Minaj's Super Bass?)
 * Tico?
 * Xina?
 * Cosme? (Isn't that a girls' name?)
 * Kiko? (Isn't that a girls name?)
 * Hernan?
 * Eleda?
 * Paine? (That's a surname, like Liam Payne of One Direction?)
 * Gurrllliermo? (however that's spelt?)
 * Those are the silliest ATL and EPAC names I have heard of. What do you think?
 * No names need to be of English French of Spanish origin. Igor/Ivan/Olga them lot were Slavic, Rina is an Indian name (used by Japan too,) Omar is an Arabic name, Ingrid is a Norwegian name and so on.
 * What do you think? Please comment! 188.223.248.201 22:59, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Also add Hortense, Gerda, Francelia, Isbell, Debra, Felice, Gilda, Fifi, Hallie, Dottie, Emmy, Inga and Babe. BTW, 188, Cosme and Kiko aren't girls' names. 219.90.94.162 07:49, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes they are girls names, 219.


 * Cosme, as a girl's name is a variant of (Greek), and the meaning of Cosme is "order, beauty"
 * Kiko is a Japanese girls' name, a variant of Keiko, meaning, "be glad." 188.223.248.201 19:38, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

I don't think all of the names are ridiculous, but as long as the WMO doesn't choose anything stupid for Isaac, I'll be ok. I don't think all of the replacement names are strange, except for Dorian, Fernand, and probrably Gonzalo. And the WMO can replace names with other names that look like the retired name (Rita>Rina or Stan>Sean), so Isaiah could replace Isaac even though it's not far off from it. And Andrew, Isaiah and Isaias may sound similar, but I don't pronounce them the same way. I personally don't confuse Ivan with Ian (though Ivan's Russian pronunciation is ee-vahn), nor Ioan and Ione (I pronounce Ione as eye-own-e), even though they're just one or two letters off. I thought Irma would be Irene's replacement last year, and it was. Hopefully I'll be right again this year with Icarus replacing Isaac. Ryan1000 23:34, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Personally, my picks would either be Ippolito or Ignazio, considering the relative lack of Italian names. Andros 1337 (talk) 00:49, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Most of the names recently have been fine, but there have been a few that are really unfortunate lol. -- SkyFury 10:18, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ryan I like the name Dorian.Gonzalo was put because in Cuba is a very popular name and maybe they ask for it and Fernand is also a good replacement in my opinion.and anon all the names that you have ask for the epac are all very popular in Mexico like elida or Pilar and Fausto.Allanjeffs 21:03, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * That's not what I think though Allan. There were so many better "D" names to choose from IMO, but they picked Dorian. I do not like Fernand so much either because it's a French name. I think Fernando (the Spanish version of Fernand) would've been better, especially considering Felix caused most of it's damage in a Spanish-speaking country. The same goes for Gonzalo. I think Gonzalez would've been a better replacement, but Gary was my pick for Gustav in 2008. Ryan1000 01:04, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gonzalez is a last name Gonzalo is the first name. Allanjeffs 01:52, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Although there may be abnormal names on today's ATL and EPAC lists, Liz, you should get a load of what they used during the old days: ATL Female Name Fails (some of these are another Wikia contributor's ideas): Sorry if I've sidetracked the discussion or if I've confused anyone. --AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 11:17, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gerda (Or this one)
 * Francelia
 * Kendra (I don't see anything wrong with this, 219).
 * Isbell
 * Debra (Or this one!)
 * Felice
 * Gilda
 * Fifi (SERIOUSLY?!)
 * Hallie
 * Dottie
 * Emmy
 * Inga
 * Babe (Wha...?)
 * Cleo (Come on!)
 * Candy (Really?)
 * Beulah
 * Blanche (I can't even prononunce this one!)

Lol! Fifi and the Flowertots? Blanche from Coronation Street? (a popular soap drama series on TV) Cleo? Cleopatra! Gilda? Gilma? Like the Epac in Hawaii? Hallie? Halle Berry? Candy? (I see Toons on Toontown called Candy) Okay... I agree that some of these names are kinda weird. Anyway... Beulah is an old fashioned name. But the name Fifi cracked me up XD What do you think ppl? Which is the weirdest name in Epac and Atl history? (one boy and one girl name plz.) ty! 188.223.248.201 19:44, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think all the names were confusing, and I wouldn't sidetrack the discussion too much. The point of this was to speculate over what would replace Isaac. I'm placing my money on Icarus, though many other names are avaliable. Ryan1000 22:20, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Liz, the weirdest ATL name EVER used IMO, is Fifi, and the weirdest EPAC name is Xina, but this usually isn't the right place to say these kind of things. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:37, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Hmm...Isaac will most likely be retired and I think that these names below will probably be brought up at the WMO session in 2013. Ignatius, Inver, or Ivor is the ones I think will most likely replace Isaac in 2013. Wow, the WMO is definitely running out of "I" named storms, the better think up some new names fast or a past hurricane name could be brought back D: STO12 (talk) 01:04, September 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ignatius (this name is one of my top picks)
 * Innis
 * Icarus
 * Idan
 * Inver (this name is one of my top picks)
 * Irvin
 * Ilya
 * Irving
 * Ivor (this name is one of my top picks)

Otto, I don't think that bringing up a retired hurricane name will occur (Although it technically happened with Carol and Edna). We still have some "normal" I names, then we hit the crazy ones. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 02:00, September 5, 2012 (UTC)

Okaii. Let's get all the list together.

isaac could prob get retired. so what do yall think of my list :D 188.223.248.201 22:37, September 24, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine: AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 23:07, September 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ambert
 * Bora
 * Cort
 * Delia
 * Ezra
 * Faith
 * Gabe
 * Hope
 * Iestin
 * Joy
 * Kade
 * Lucy
 * Mort
 * Natalie
 * Oliver
 * Pearl
 * Rupert
 * Shelby
 * Tyler
 * Vera
 * Wyatt


 * Ok :D Iestin sounds like a cool name. I think it's time for like a hurricane Jamal, Sha'Naynay, Shaqueela, Shaniqua (if Sandy gets kicked from the list) Khadeesha, Keisha (Ke$ha! TiK ToK! :D) and those kind of epic names :D I think time's up for oldish names. Get it ppl? Anyway.


 * Icarus


 * Izaak


 * Itrez


 * Isaiah (Care about Isaiahhs?)


 * Ishaq


 * Irvin (Irwin, much?)


 * Ibn


 * Ibrahim


 * Ibaad


 * Ismail


 * Issa


 * Iqbal


 * Ithaar
 * Iggy


 * Iyaad


 * Imran would be cool names too. Whatcha'll think? 188.223.248.201 21:04, October 22, 2012 (UTC)