Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season/August-September

August
I think it's time to add this section, even if there is literally no disturbance that is present in this basin right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:55, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic is very boring right now. Hopefully something forms soon... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:14, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Zzzzzzzzzzz... Send Help Please  (talk) 08:56, August 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * CSU mid-season outlooks are out. Numbers raised from 11-4-1 to 12-5-1 after the two July hurricanes. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: 700 miles west of the Azores
FINA-FREAKIN'-LLY! 10/20 as of latest advisory, will most likely flop, but at least it's something! Also, that's got to be one of the weirdest projected development areas I've ever seen. Send Help Please (talk) 07:56, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Nah, watch it somehow develop into Debby and strengthen to a hurricane. :P Leeboy100 Hello!! 08:28, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
TropicalTidbits actually has this up as an invest. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, that was fast. Send Help Please  (talk) 14:32, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Not every day we see a storm moving in a southwesterly direction, especially in this part of the Atlantic. But it probably won't become much; if it becomes Debby, it'll probably remain well out at sea. Ryan1000 16:10, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/30 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:16, August 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/40. Might wind up having to eat my words about this flopping. Send Help Please  (talk) 07:36, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 20/20. Send Help Please (talk) 02:05, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Glad to see something here for the first time in forever (lol). Unfortunately, might be a flop at this point. I still hope it can somehow become Debby though. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 50/50. What. Send Help Please  (talk) 06:04, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Debby
How did this happen...Ryan1000 14:59, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * debby was just impatient for 15 minutes of fame --yare yare daze (talk) 15:01, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

I wasn't really expecting this at first but it wont last long. 40mph and 1008mb.-Nickcoro (talk) 15:05, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Waste of a name.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * next ...zzz... --yare yare daze (talk) 15:06, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

What even. Wasn't even expecting this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:07, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this shouldn't have been named...but oh well. What a fail. Ryan1000 15:10, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Debby is currently weakest NHem TS-strength system for this year. What a joke. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:17, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * What a waste of a name... 😑 This formation was so unexpected. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:00, August 7, 2018 (UTC)

Kinda expected Debby from 97L but I did not expect it to be named so soon. Debby has just formed but I know she will definitely be back in 2024. Come back stronger Debby, but be a fishspinner like this one too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:08, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * This was unexpected. I thought this wouldn't even form from the start, although before it was named, it did looked better. Debby just pulled an Emily I guess. Also the NHC just named this straight away for the second time this season, same thing with Alberto. Oh well, what a waste.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   17:51, August 7,
 * Send Help Please (talk) 20:17, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still the same intensity for Advisory # 2. It is looking hopeless for any further intensification, and it may not even become fully tropical. What a disgraceful waste of a name. Debby's anthem... *facepalm* ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:29, August 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I find it interesting how... erm, subtropical... this season has been so far. Of the four storms we've had so far, only Chris wasn't subtropical at any point in its life. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:58, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Debby
And she transitions to a tropical storm. 45 mph, 1003 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:45, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Uh, yay? Send Help Please  (talk) 10:17, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * zzz zzz ZZZ. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:45, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm just glad to finally have something to track in the Atlantic, as long as Debby doesn't turn out to be indicative of the rest of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:52, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * debby's theme song yare yare daze (talk) 17:03, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * (Un)fortunately, she probably will be. With a strengthening El Nino and less than ideal conditions across the Atlantic, I'm not really expecting an active Atlantic season out of 2018. Ryan1000 17:11, August 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, me too. Although the MDR of the Atlantic is warming, there is still the SAL and wind shear across the Atlantic, so even then, I don't think this season will be much compared to the two previous years. Especially if we have a subtropical storm in the Atlantic in August, which I think is rare for the Atlantic.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     05:29, August 08, 2018 (UTC)


 * 2013 part ii tbh lol --yare yare daze (talk) 17:31, August 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Honestly, after the destruction of last year, I wouldn’t mind the Atlantic being quiet this year. Then again, we could get a 1992-esque season where one storm is incredibly destructive, but hopefully that won’t happen. Leeboy100 Hello!! 19:36, August 8, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, this year will probably be close to 2006 (which also used this year's naming list) which gave people a break after 2005 (the costliest year on record for its time, and also used the same naming list as last year). Ryan1000 13:06, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

2004/5: modoki doki el nino

2009/10: similar el nino setup

2018/19: hellish 2019? also considering the fact that italian storm next year who will never settle for anything below hurricane intensity... who knows what he might pull next year?!?? 🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 18:04, August 9, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby
As expected, Debby is now on her way out. Try again in 6 years, Little Debby. (As The Weather Channel refers to her as) Leeboy100 Hello!! 21:14, August 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * And with this, the Atlantic falls into slumber... again... Send Help Please  (talk) 06:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Officially off the NHC site. Look at it this way, at least she didn’t cause any harm in her short lifespan. Leeboy100 Hello!! 06:32, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Tfw GFS doesn't show its usual fantasy storms... ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
Nevermind on that whole slumber thing, a wild AOI appears. 10/20. Send Help Please  (talk) 14:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * I honestly don't see this developing to a tropical cyclone. There is high wind shear across the Caribbean. However this does has a small shot of attaining tropical depression status.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     19:54, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Upping the numbers without stealing a name. I am okay with that. Send Help Please  (talk) 07:00, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Me too, if a system is going to just stay extremely weak, it should only peak as a TD without stealing a precious name off the lists. This one is down to 10/10, and development is not going to happen unless we get a surprise. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:01, August 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now dead.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     15:35, August 12, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: North Central Atlantic
Another AOI appears, this one with 0/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:54, August 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Debby 2.0 anyone? Ryan1000 12:26, August 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * I hope not... Anything but another pathetic name-stealer, unless this can somehow peak at 60+ mph. I was a bit surprised Debby managed to reach 50 mph, which although still pathetic, is better than how I expected it to perform. If this one develops, we might have another subtropical system. Alberto, Beryl, and Debby were all subtropical at one point in life. This system could make it 4 out of 5 systems being subtropical at one point in life (it's already 3 out of 4). I doubt I've ever tracked an Atlantic season with so many subtropical systems. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:08, August 11, 2018 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Now marked as an invest. Also now 10/20. Yeah, I also had never tracked a season with so many subtropical storms, but I'm assuming the high number of subtropical storms id because the subtropics are favorable for tropical cyclone development while the MDR isn't that favorable this year. Having a subtropical storm in August doesn't seem right lol. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     15:41, August 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/30. Idk if this will develop though.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     22:49, August 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/20 because of strong upper-level winds prevailing. I don't think we'll see any further development from this. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:38, August 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sad to see such a rad name like Ernesto go for a potential flop. BAKA. --🅱ust 🅱hut 🅱p 🅱lready 😂😂👌🏿👌🏿💯💯 (talk) 23:47, August 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Back up to 20/30. They've actually removed the mention of "strong upper-level winds" from their TWO, and now conditions are expected to be a bit more favorable by mid-week before it enters cooler waters late-week. Ernesto, anyone? ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:36, August 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * 40/40 now. The TWO wording is eerily similar to those written for Debby's precursor. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:54, August 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nagisa from Clannad's restaurant becoming a hurricane LOL! --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 15:56, August 14, 2018 (UTC)

Now 60/60 and looking very organized on satellite imagery. At this point, I would be shocked if it doesn't become Ernesto (or at least a subtropical depression) by tomorrow morning. Here comes a re-Debby and yet another subtropical system... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:48, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agreed. Even though we may have our 4th subtropical cyclone, I must admit an "E" named storm in mid-August isn't too bad, although most of the atorms so far were weak (expection of Chris)  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:05, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

80/80. I really hope something will come from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:21, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Five
Here comes Ernesto! Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:51, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Geez, they might as well just rebrand this season as the 2018 Atlantic Subtropical Storm Season. The NHC even pointed out this season's subropical tendencies in their discussion. Send Help Please  (talk) 11:40, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * I have to say Ernesto is my third-favorite name on the list after Gordon and Sara, so it saddens me to see this name potentially go to a failure, but c'est la vie... forecast peak of 45 kts as of now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:19, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * This should become Ernesto soon, but it'll probably just be a repeat of Debby and dissipate while moving northeast out to sea. It may not turn fully tropical like Debby did though. Ryan1000 13:02, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Ernesto
Same time as Lane was named, we have SS Ernesto. Expected to peak below hurricane status. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     14:57, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Another good name assigned to a pathetic storm. Sigh... Send Help Please  (talk) 14:57, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ernesto is basically a re-Debby. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 16:40, August 15, 2018 (UTC)

Well hey, look on the bright side, even if this year doesn't produce much from here on out, it's at least a break from the historic devastation from last year's AHS. Ryan1000 17:33, August 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * That’s exactly what I’ve been saying all along, Ryan. I honestly hope we just have nothing but fishies the rest of the season. Leeboy100 Hello!! 22:49, August 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Good point, but I don't think it's a crime to wish for at least one Lee or Jose-like storm that puts on a good show but doesnt have any major land impacts. Send Help Please  (talk) 03:05, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Agreed that having a season filled with fishies is much better than a season with powerful monsters causing devastation. However, these fishies should at least try, like Lee or Jose did. I probably sound a bit insensitive for saying this, but I'd take a re-2017 over a season filled with nothing but weak fish name-stealing TSs anyday (think of a 2013-type season, but without storms like Ingrid). I just wish a C5 fishspinner could occur in this basin... It would be a celebration here on these forums if that happened. Back to Ernesto, it is looking like nothing more than a pathetic name-waster. I am sickened to see a relatively good name like Ernesto go to a weak failure STS. What's worse... this may not even become tropical *facepalm* ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:13, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * To be honest, having the fifth storm in mid-August means the pace so far is decent. But I agree that these fishes should actually try to do stuff instead of peaking as weak TSs. I hadn't started tracking TCs in 2013, but I can imagine the agony of having TS after TS not doing anything. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:26, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ernesto
Now tropical, though it doesnt truly matter as this storm is going to be dead soon anyway. All this really accomplishes is creating another parallel with Debby. Send Help Please (talk) 23:04, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Glad it became tropical, although it doesn't help the fact that it's still a pathetic name-waste. Should become post-tropical by tomorrow or so. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:00, August 17, 2018 (UTC)

2013 was a dead season in intensity and ACE, but even a season like that wasn't without some notability (like list 5 has always been), as Ingrid was retired. I wouldn't be surprised if next year (which used the same naming list) has something notable too, since list 5 still has yet to go one usage without having a retired name. Hopefully this year doesn't do that (since it hasn't been that lucky for retirements), but still sees a storm or two like Gordon/Helene '06 or Michael '12. Ryan1000 14:31, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actual title of actual UK news story: UK SHOCK WEATHER FORECAST: Tropical Storm Ernesto heads STRAIGHT for Britain - MAPPED Send Help Please  (talk) 16:07, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * How is this thing even still alive, it's name can't even fit on the NHC's map anymore. Send Help Please  (talk) 00:09, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol ernesto come at me bro --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:32, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ernesto may be the weakest storm of the season so far, but at least it's impressive how far north he's remained tropical. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:37, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * lol, I'm not interested in nagisa's restaurant passing over me, like it won't do any harm to me lole --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 00:40, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Ernesto is somehow still going despite the horrendous satellite presentation, and you can barely even see the icon on the NHS's map. Definitely the superior storm of the North Atlantic twins imo, even if Debby was a little stronger. Send Help Please (talk) 02:39, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Advisory 12: Still going! 45 mph/999 mbars! It's not even visible on NHC's page anymore except for a tiny red tail. I don't think I've ever seen an Atlantic system stay tropical so far north. Considering the terrible satellite presentation, it will almost certainly be post-tropical by the next advisory. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:43, August 18, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto
And it finally happened. Final NHC advisory issued. Ireland & UK needs to prepare for any effects from this one though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:21, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, this storm finally died. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:29, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Given Joestar's references, I feel as if this is the appropriate song to play as Ernesto dies.  Send Help Please  (talk) 13:32, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * SHP sure thing, but actually ernesto ain't doing anything to me, just clouds, and this song suits this piece of flop better LOL! ¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 14:08, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the song I posted would've fit better if Ernesto was a strong fishspinner and we were actually sad to see it go. Oh well, the feelstaurant will get another chance in 6 years. Send Help Please  (talk) 16:39, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Goodbye to a name-stealer, even though it was resilient and stayed tropical so far north in the end. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:07, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
We have another AOI in the MDR, already marked as an invest, currently at 10/20. Conditions in the Caribbean Sea won't be favorable it seems. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     01:02, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * This could be one to watch, as it looks to have a chance of making it into the Gulf of Mexico where two loop eddies await. Send Help Please  (talk) 03:09, August 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * For now I doubt this will become much in the short term, maybe a TS at most before encountering the eastern Caribbean. If it can survive the unfavorable conditions there, we might see something significant by the time it reaches the GOM (hopefully not though). This is already reminding me a whole lot like Harvey... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:17, August 16, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 20/20, but only has until late Saturday to develop... I would not bet on this becoming anything by then. But like I said earlier, hopefully it doesn't become a monster in the Gulf of Mexico. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:02, August 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead. Send Help Please  (talk) 00:11, August 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * The MDR is taking a while to fire up... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:08, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

Don't expect it to fire up as crazy as last year did; after all, there's an El Nino in effect and it's expected to keep this year's AHS near to below-average. Ryan1000 04:39, August 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this year shouldn't be anywhere NEAR last year's activity. At least it will be a break for those affected by the devastating storms of last year (like Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Nate), unless we get another devastating system later in the season (hope not). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   Wish me  a happy birthday!  🎉  21:53, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

I agree, it's doubtful we'll see any Cat. 5 Cape Verde hurricanes hurtling towards us like last year. If we do get anything bad this year, it'll probably be home-grown like Joaquin or a wave that manages to survive the trip across the Atlantic and into the Carribean or the Gulf, like this wave had the potential to do. Also, happy birthday Steve! Send Help Please (talk) 00:40, August 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, while it is pretty unlikely we will see a C5 this year, we may still get a major hurricane, or worse, a destructive/deadly hurricane, but let's hope that won't happen, especially after last year. The MDR is warming as well, and there are still some shear lying around.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:00, August 19, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging from Africa
The Atlantic once again wakes up, and a tropical wave expected to emerge off from Africa, currently at 0/20. The NHC also states this: "Environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by early next week." ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:45, August 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally there is something with potential to develop in the MDR. The region has been sleeping for what seemed like ages. Considering this is over Africa atm, it appears very likely to become Florence with all that ocean up ahead. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:02, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Let's hope this doesn't affect the Caribbean much. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:56, August 23, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 0/10 but who knows, the Atlantic might get another surprise from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:27, August 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hopefully. I'm sick of the inactivity that the Atlantic is bringing us (especially in the MDR). As long as this keeps away from land, I'm hoping this can manage to become a hurricane. Unfortunately it's likely that the Atlantic will keep feeding us these disappointing failures, and this AOI might not be an exception. We're nearing the peak of the season for Christ's sake. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:27, August 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/0, development not expected in the MDR due to its fast forward speed. If this survives to the GoM however, like the GFS has been showing at very long range (300++ hours from now), there might be trouble. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:46, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Send Help Please (talk) 20:01, August 24, 2018 (UTC)

Well, that's El Nino for you...but we still have all of September and October left, we could see a potential MDR major or two later on. Ryan1000 13:31, August 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ughh... I'm just not used to the Atlantic being so dead at this time of year. A storm has to form in the MDR at some point soon? We're near the peak of the season, and the Atlantic looks hopelessly dead. The basinwide satellite imagery looks more like January than late August. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:31, August 25, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa later this week according to the 5-day TWO. 0/20 for now. Send Help Please (talk) 10:22, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/30. For a past few days, models show multiple storm forming at the start of September in the MDR, and one on the Gulf.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:23, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * GFS model is showing a hurricane with pressures in the 970s. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:31, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * For now, I'd take the models with a grain of salt. The Atlantic's MDR region has been very inactive over the past weeks and I'd be surprised if there was a burst at the start of September. Hopefully we do see Hurricane Florence though, to make up for its 2012 incarnation. At least it seems like some activity is on the horizon, as long as it means no land will be threatened. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:41, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. Send Help Please  (talk) 11:51, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/60, and this should be invested anytime now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:19, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Both of the global models develop this into Florence down the road, but recurve it out to sea before hitting the U.S, let alone Bermuda (unlike the 2006 Florence). Also, if it doesn't become Florence before September, we'll only have a two-storm August, both storms of which were weak, short-lived fishspinners in the far north Atlantic, which would the quietest August regarding ACE in 21 years, since 1997. Ryan1000 21:27, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 40/70, and I'm still suprised this hasn't been invested.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:56, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Florence is coming. 60/80, but why is this thing still not invested? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:03, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * That's probably because it's still over land, but this seems like a poor excuse. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:19, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Okay, it is finally invested. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:33, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six
Now a Tropical Storm Warning for Southern Cape Verde. 30mph/1007mb Nickcoro (talk) 15:07, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Potential tropical cyclones are actually numbered like depressions are, I learned that from last year when PTC 10 was actually 10L, so this is 06L, though it'll probably be Florence soon. Due to the northernly position of this storm, it should remain away from any major landmasses down the road, apart from maybe Bermuda (and of course Cape Verde). Ryan1000 15:36, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 90/90, and fingers crossed Cape Verde makes it through nice and easy. By the time I wake up tomorrow morning, I hope to see it be Florence. Finally we are seeing something develop in the MDR... This looks to become a classic Cape-Verde hurricane down the road, and hopefully it will avoid land (except the CV islands). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:35, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Finally a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:55, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence
And now this has been named Florence. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:21, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane strength is no longer in the forecast, but it could still happen down the road. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, only little strengthening is forecast for now. NHC says that Florence is currently over somewhat cool waters and light shear, but that should flip to warmer waters but higher shear. These factors will limit strengthening, but I still won't be surprised if Florence can pull off hurricane intensity. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

SST's aren't too bad actually, just about 80 degrees Fahrenheit, but the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) isn't giving Florence much of a break in terms of dry air, not now or down the road. Bad news, however, is if Flo doesn't get as strong as a hurricane, then she could, as indicated by the 00Z run of the Euro yesterday, end up moving farther west towards the U.S. eastern seaboard or Atlantic Canada. So hoping for Flo to get stronger sooner may actually be a good thing, as that means she'll be more likely to be a fishspinner that'll recurve northeast down the road. Ryan1000 05:33, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is changing little in intensity, and nothing interesting is expected to come out of this storm until 120 hours, when it'll enter more favorable conditions such as warmer waters and lower shear. I hope Florence can try its hardest to lessen the chance of it being a threat to the U.S. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:00, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Florence is ingesting some dry air as we speak from the SAL and SST's, though not frigid, are less than ideal for a hurricane to form. Flo is also a fairly small storm like Beryl earlier this year, so she's vulnerable to dissipating to even slight changes in the environment around her. But that tiny size could also come in her favor and cause her to RI later in the forecast period, like how Beryl unexpectedly became a hurricane in the MDR. I just hope it happens sooner rather than later, because if Florence does RI down the road but doesn't do so fast enough, Flo could be a serious threat down the road to the U.S. or to Bermuda. The current run of the GFS takes Florence north and east of Bermuda but eventually takes her to a landfall in Newfoundland, but the Euro has doubled down on their previous forecast and now makes Florence a 955 mbar category 3 storm heading straight for the mid-Atlantic states or New England. While it's 9 days ahead, the Euro is still typically the more reliable model between it and the GFS. I'm hoping the GFS is right on this one, because we don't want Florence to be a severe storm for the east coast, especially after the beating the U.S. saw from last year on the Gulf coast and northeastern Caribbean Islands. Ryan1000 05:39, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Flo is now strengthening slightly, up to 65 mph and 997 mbars, but shear is expected to keep her in check the next day or two, plus the storm still has some dry air to deal with. The Euro is still insistent on Florence heading farther west towards a U.S. landfall, but the GFS wants to turn Florence northward, though the latest 12Z run takes her slightly closer to Bermuda than before. Flo is still a storm to watch out for. Ryan1000 16:07, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Considering how full of it the GFS is being with Gordon. I am more inclined to believe the Euro in regards to Florence. --Whiplash (talk) 17:12, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence now 70/995 per latest advisory, just below hurricane strength, however, the NHC cone still has Florence staying as a TS, though that may be unlikely.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:39, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * A bit surprised Florence is already near hurricane intensity, but contrary to the NHC forecast, I won't be too surprised if it intensifies 5 more mph to briefly reach hurricane strength before it encounters less favorable conditions. After 5 days, Florence should certainly become a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:37, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

I actually think the GFS may get the track of Flo right, but they're being too aggressive on the intensity of the storm on it's projected track; the current run projects a 920 mbar storm moving right north of Bermuda before turning northeast out to sea or towards Newfoundland. I doubt Florence will get that powerful, but that general track may be accurate down the road, unless Florence stays weak or weakens faster and stays further south than the current forecast. I don't buy for a second that Flo will move west-southwest by the time she reaches Bermuda and eventually hit Jacksonville or Cape Canaveral, Florida as a 971 mbar storm as the Euro currently shows. If Flo does reach or threaten the U.S. east coast, it'll be from the southeast (passing through or just north of the Bahamas) if she stays weaker. Ryan1000 05:16, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Still below hurricane strength, but expected to finally become a hurricane by the end of the forecast (Sunday). Bermuda may still need to prepare for this one, as Florence may pass close to the island. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:46, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence
Finally. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:41, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Flo could weaken to a TS soon due to shear, but she's forecast to regain category 1 strength by the time she reaches a point near Bermuda late in the forecast period. Ryan1000 15:50, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I am concerned about what the strong high pressure system over New England could do to Florence. If Florence is weak enough, the high pressure system may bring Florence towards the East Coast, where some models explodes Florence, while other models explodes Florence early enough to influence the two high pressure systems (one on NE and another near Europe, and put Florence out to sea. This is too early to know for sure but its something to note.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     16:54, September 04, 2018 (UTC)
 * Winds increased to 85 mph, pressure down to 984 mb. However, Florence is still expected to weaken back to a TS in the next few days/hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now an 85 kt/976 mbar Category 2 and forecast to maintain hurricane strength for the rest of the forecast period. Chris might not last much longer as the season's intensity champion at this rate. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:51, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, looks like Flo did what Beryl couldn't do, and got stronger in the open Atlantic. This means Flo could recurve sooner, assuming she maintains this intensity, but Bermuda still may need to watch out. Ryan1000 04:19, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Florence
Incredible strengthening from Florence in the face of marginal conditions. Up to 105kt/961mb. Kiewii 12:50, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * One could say Florence is a well-oiled machine ;D go, Flo, go! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Will be eagerly anticipating the next runs of the GFS and Euro with the strengthening that wasn't expected to see if they wildly steer her back out to sea. If they don't start to do so in the next few runs time to start getting a bit more concerned by this system. Florence is wildly unpredictable and also no matter where she goes her influence could impact the rest of the development of the hurricane season. Seen some discussion that if she were to make a landfall the perturbations in the atmosphere could create enough windshear across the basin to seriously impede development for the remainder of the season. The Atlantic is now the Florence show. --Whiplash (talk) 15:26, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a 115 kt/953 mbar Category 4 per Tropical Tidbits/ATCF. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, Flo is really defying her forecast expectations, if this keeps up she might maintain major hurricane intensity despite marginal conditions over the next few days. Bermuda is still potentially in the firing line of Flo though, hopefully she misses the island down the road. Ryan1000 19:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Wow. So far, Florence is my favorite Atlantic hurricane. Such an overperformer. Just don't affect Bermuda please.

UPDATE: She is now officially a Category 4. All seasons, from 2014 to 2018 have seen at least one Category 4 now. (Gonzalo, Joaquin, Matthew, Nicole, Harvey, Irma (peaked as C5), Jose, Maria (also C5)). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:34, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * The new cone shows Florence briefly weakening below major hurricane status due to shear, and then restrengthen back to a major hurricane. However, with Florence over performing the NHC, who knows what other surprises Florence pulls up her sleeves. Anyways, with Florence this strong, a curve away from the US East Coast is getting more likely, but not ruled out. In the other hand, Florence may still be a threat to Bermuda in the coming days.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:05, September 05, 2018 (UTC)


 * Three fun facts:
 * Florence is the first Atlantic hurricane bearing a name from List IV to reach Category 4 intensity since Keith in 2000.
 * At the 5am September 4 advisory, Florence was forecast to be a 55-kt TS at 1800 UTC September 5. Florence exceeded that forecast by 60 kts.
 * According to this tweet, Florence has reached Category 4 intensity farther northeast than any other Atlantic hurricane on record. (Which would explain why it seemed so odd to see a Category 4 hurricane in Florence's current location...)
 * --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:14, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Depends exactly on how "northeast" is defined; in that tweet he states Flo was the farthest northeast an Atlantic storm did so while east of 50W, a fairly specific parameter. Ellen of 1978 reached cat 4 intensity just south of Newfoundland, which could be considered farther northeast than Flo's current position, though Flo is certainly the farthest northeast cat 4 in the tropical Atlantic (just south of the tropic of cancer, 23.5 degrees north). Ryan1000 00:50, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also, the high pressure system over Canada right now may end up forcing Florence farther west instead of turning her out to sea as we might hope; the current 18Z run of the GFS makes Florence a 953 mbar strong category 3 storm hitting Virginia and Delaware before turning northeast just south of Long Island and out to sea, that would be a first in the reliabe track record, while the 12Z Euro takes Florence in a similar direction, but they're currently not caught up with Flo's unexpected intensity jump; also they pull Flo offshore before making landfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Both of them take her south of Bermuda though, but this storm has already been a very tricky storm to forecast intensity-wise, so all of the projected tracks by the models should be taken with a grain of salt as well. Ryan1000 01:59, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

11 PM advisory downs Flo to 125/956, and forecast track now goes south of Bermuda, but it's still too soon to tell the long-term track of Flo. Ryan1000 03:05, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I'm really surprised Florence RI'd in only marginal conditions! I swear, when I looked at NHC this morning, I was astonished... to say the least. A C4 there is very unusual, and like others have said, it's the furthest northeast C4 ever recorded. Hopefully it stays out to sea... especially due to the uncertain forecast, currently I fear for Bermuda and possibly the East Coast. If Florence heads into Bermuda straight-on as a major hurricane, we could be dealing with a re-Fabian of sorts, and we don't need another U.S. disaster especially after last year. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:20, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

If anyone wants nightmare fodder go look at the GFS's landfall scenarios. Most of them involve some sub-900mb storm hitting Bermuda, the Carolinas, or Virginia. (Obviously not going to happen tho.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:29, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I guess this would be a good time to remind people to... Beware the first storm of September!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:53, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

It's been a while since Eric's adage last came into effect...I believe Ike of 2008 was the last time that happened. Irma would've done that last year if it formed slightly later too, and if some of the recent runs of the GFS or Euro come to pass, Florence may do that too. Hopefully not though, if a major hurricane hits the mid-Atlantic...I can't imagine how destructive it would be. Bermuda also isn't completely out of the woods either. Ironically, the 06Z GFS run today actually keeps Flo offshore of the mid-Atlantic while the Euro's doesn't, but that run of the GFS also shows Florence becoming a 938 mbar category 4 storm directly hitting Bermuda, hopefully that doesn't happen. Ryan1000 12:18, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (2nd time)
Down to 90 kts/975 mbar. Ryan, Jose also came close to verifying Eric's adage last year; it would have done so if effects in the Leewards or along the U.S. East Coast had been as severe as they could have been. Eric's adage operationally verified in 2011 with Lee, but a storm was determined in post-analysis to have sneaked in just a day before Lee. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:58, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Eric mentioned that post-season 2011 storm when he was last here in 2012 while Michael was active, though Lee would've otherwise done that, and Jose...was close, but no cigar. Also, had Jose been worse last year (or had Ophelia struck the Azores as a major hurricane), 2017 would've been the first year to have 3 consecutive retired names. 2016, two years ago, also came close to doing that (Matthew, Nicole, and Otto), but the worst of Nicole missed Bermuda just slightly to the south. Florence may be a close call for Bermuda this time around, just like her 2006 incarnation, which formed and approached Bermuda at almost this exact same time 12 years ago. Ryan1000 15:20, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to a Category 1 per latest STWO, now at 80/989.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:39, September 06, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence (2nd time)
Down to TS intensity, 70 mph and 993 mbars. The projected track for Flo has shifted well south of Bermuda at this point, but even though Bermuda might be out of the woods if that happens, Florence could come much closer to the eastern seaboard down the road if she follows this track. The 18Z GFS still keeps Flo offshore, but many of the recent Euro runs take Flo to a landfall on the east coast. Previously it was Virginia and the mid-Atlantic, now it's Cape Hatteras, NC in the 12Z run. Ryan1000 03:11, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Getting increasingly frightened about this. The East Coast appears to directly be in Florence's path, and unless it does a sharp turn north and northeast, Florence will hit the coast as a potentially powerful monster. This feels like a re-Isabel, Fran, or 1933 Chesapeake–Potomac hurricane. Florence could very well become a retirement candidate (first or second, depending on how bad Gordon's totals are). Hopefully it can stay offshore, like a re-Earl (2010). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:50, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now we got a situation here. Florence is expected to re-intensify to a Category 4 at the end of the NHC forecast. She may either do a Joaquin/Edouard and just parallel the East Coast, or do a Fran/Floyd/Hugo and hit the Mid-Atlantic. Florence may get the boot this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:38, September 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Both of the global models now take this to a landfall on the eastern seaboard somewhere, the Euro does so near Charleston, South Carolina while the GFS does so in north Carolina and then moves Flo northward over Chesapeake Bay and into the Mid-Atlantic over Maryland, DC, and even into Pennsylvania, all while retaining formidable intensity. Since a sizeable hurricane has never moved northward through Chesapeake Bay before, I'm hoping the Euro is right this run around, because if the GFS verifies then Flo would be much worse. But if either model forecast comes to fruition, then our last original "F" name since 1979 will be as good as gone after this year. Isaac could be too, if TD 9 becomes Isaac while TD 8 becomes Helene. Ryan1000 00:55, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here's exactly how much model runs have shifted with Flo. It's just a question of how much further south they shift and eventually where they will converge. Not looking good so far. My opinion after looking at the trends and high pressure is the models will move a little more south over the weekend and zero in on a north Florida to Savannah landfall. As long as it stays north of Tampa, I'm gravy, but I can't say the same about the many others that will likely be impacted. I have a very bad feeling Florence will make Irene look like nothing. Owen 05:23, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is looking increasingly ominous for the East Coast. If it continues on current track, the Carolinas or even Georgia/north Florida will most likely be hit by Florence's ferocity. If the high pressure ends up being weaker than expected, it will try to recurve, but still hit up north in the New Jersey/Maryland/Delaware region. The chances this will stay out to sea is now extremely low. Florence will most likely be another Floyd/Hugo/Fran/Isabel/1933 C-P hurricane and may strike as a powerful major. Here comes a retirement candidate and likely one of the costliest hurricanes on record... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:22, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Flo has been recovering from the effects of shear over the past few hours and the small storm seems to be getting its act together by now. Unfortunately, despite being only a tropical storm, Flo's small size means rapid intensification is a very real possibility, and now Flo is expected to become a 145 mph category 4 monster taking direct aim at South Carolina. At this rate, Charleston could be directly in the firing line from this storm, and if Flo gets that powerful before striking the Palmetto state, then she could be even worse than 140 mph Hurricane Hugo 29 years ago in 1989. If that verifies, Flo would also be the first major hurricane to hit the Atlantic eastern seaboard of the U.S. since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004, and the first category 4 since Andrew in 1992. The NHC track is following the exact same course that the 00Z Euro projects, though the GFS still wants to take Flo recurving up into North Carolina and/or the mid-Atlantic states. Ryan1000 13:52, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * New NHC track is out, Flo is still a strong TS, but will likely become a hurricane any time now, and Flo is now forecast to directly strike Wilmington, NC as a powerful 130 mph cat 4 storm, which would make it the first cat 4 to strike NC since 1954's Hazel hit near the SC/NC border. GFS has recently wanted to keep Flo just offshore, but the Euro is predicting a headlong landfall in the state, or South Carolina. Either way, Flo is definitely an increasingly dangerous storm that bears watching over the next few days. Ryan1000 05:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is now expected to make landfall at 120 mph, this could easily become the strongest hurricane to strike the state since Fran. Now is the time to prepare. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:43, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (3rd time)
Back to hurricane status. Florence is now forecast to peak at 145 mph. We now have a situation here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now at 85mph. NHC now predicting winds of up to 150 and some more models suggesting this could become a Category 5... I believe this would be the most northerly Category 5 ever if it holds out? Pretty sure this will be retired by this point. --Whiplash (talk) 21:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) Stronger as of the new 5 pm EDT advisory. 75 kts/975 mbars. Florence is now also forecast to peak at 150 mph before slamming into the Carolinas as a strong Cat 4, late Thursday or early Friday. I think it might be safe to say that we might be seeing the last usage of the only remaining original 'F' name. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:05, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence's rip tides have killed her first victim. RIP. 2 others badly injured. --Whiplash (talk) 21:51, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

As if things couldn't get any worse...forecaster Blake said in [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/092053.shtml? the latest discussion] that Florence could stall just after moving ashore due to another ridge that could build over the Ohio river valley later this week, and if that happens we could see another Harvey-like megaflood, but this time in North Carolina instead of southeastern Texas. Florence could end up being North Carolina's most severe hurricane on record at this rate, and it would also be the first time on record in which a major hurricane hit the United States under this year's naming list...although Sandy was very bad in 2012, it wasn't an official major hurricane by Saffir-Simpson Scale windspeed. The only other major hurricane to hit Wilmington, NC since the sattelite era began was 120 mph Hurricane Fran 22 years ago in 1996. If Florence hits the city as a 140 mph category 4 as forecast, then she could be much, much worse. Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * A dear friend of mine moved down to Charlotte just a couple weeks ago. Needless to say, I'm starting to worry... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:40, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

I don't think Charlotte will be as severely impacted by inland flooding as much by Flo as other areas of the mid-Atlantic, but I just checked out Dr. Master's latest blog post on Flo, and he said that the inland flooding from this storm will likely extend far to the northeast of where the storm stalls after moving ashore, like with Harvey last year, but unlike Harvey, whose flooding was most extreme around the Houston metro area, Florence's rain would instead be extending into southeastern Virginia and possibly even northern Virginia, Maryland, and southeastern Pennsylvania. If the 06Z run of the GFS verifies, as stated in that blog post, then Florence could dump at least 20 inches of rain over southeastern Virginia and 10 or more inches of rain as far north as DC, Baltimore, and even Philadelphia. He's already talking about the possibility of Florence being "the Harvey of the eastern seaboard", but unlike southeastern Texas, if a Harvey-like megaflood struck the many densely populated cities of the mid-Atlantic, it would cause an unprecedented humanitarian crisis that would dwarf anything we saw last year or even in 2005. To add insult to injury, DC, Philly, and other parts of the mid-Atlantic had their wettest summer on record and the ground can't absorb any more water in some of those areas. This is looking really, really bad...Ryan1000 00:01, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 90/974, forecast to be a major tomorrow, and not only pick up speed but enlarge in size. Keep your eyes out... Ryan1000 03:25, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is extremely scary. I worry for everyone in the Carolinas and surrounding regions, like Dylan's friend, Bobnekaro, and anyone else from that region. This is going to be very bad if it hits as a C4, or god forbid... a C5. And considering the record rainfall that has already occurred there, this will just add insult to injury. This is going to get catastrophic... 😰 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:38, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Florence (2nd time)
...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... 115 mph and 962 mbars as of the 11AM advisory. Forecast to make landfall or be very close to the NC coast as a 145 mph category 4 monster. This is looking really bad for Wilmington...and inland flooding could be worse if Flo slows down or stalls. Ryan1000 14:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...Just RI'ed to a Category 4 hurricane, now at 130/946. If this continues, a C5 is unfortunately, a possibility.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     16:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

This is a really dangerous storm, the NHC expected a cat 4 from Florence 12 hours from now, but it looks like Flo is defying intensity forecasts yet again, but this time it's not a good thing. At all. If Flo becomes a cat 5, it's inevitable that Flo will be a strong cat 4 at her landfall in North Carolina, and it's expected to directly strike the city of Wilmington (approximately 282,000 people living in the metro area), which would have catastrophic results. Wilmington and other areas in North Carolina formerly suffered roughly 3.2 billion dollars in damage from Fran's 120 mph landfall there in 1996, but if Florence hits as a 145 mph or stronger storm, Fran would look like a mere historical footnote compared to Florence. The potential for Harvey-like flooding from Flo's expected stalled motion after landfall isn't any better, and if the worst of Flo's rainfall hits the multiple major cities of the upper mid-Atlantic (DC, Baltimore, Philly, Richmond, Raleigh, ect), then Florence's damage may rise to Katrina-like figures when all is said and done...lord help the people of the mid-Atlantic from this monster. Ryan1000 17:03, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

HOLY SH*T. A dropsonde has found cat 5 winds with Florence.

949mb (Surface) 220° (from the SW) 143 knots (165 mph)

It'll be interesting to see if this is actually materializing the way that is essentially the worst case scenario. Dropsondes measure instantaneous wind, not 1-min like the NHC does so I'm not quite sure if these winds are her true intensity as of yet, but she is rapidly intensifying nonetheless and there's nothing in her way besides a possible EWRC. I personally think she's headed for a 175 mph peak - as those winds are already seen in the 924 mbar levels of Florence. Owen 17:23, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now I am removing Florence as one of my favorite storms this year. (I'd reinstate her if and only if she doesn't hit land; highly unlikely for now though.) This is becoming a mix of Hugo, Fran, Floyd and Harvey, and maybe even Katrina and Sandy. If that data above verifies, the East Coast is almost certainly in the worst case scenario. We really won't have a Category 5 fishspinner again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:07, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * This storm is very bad.If the GFS runs come to fruition,this could dump 100+ Inches of rain on NC/VA. No.1 Mobile (talk) 18:16, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 939 mb, winds up to 140 mph. Still expected to peak at 150 mph. Now forecast to peak at 155 mph. May this storm do a last-ditch miracle... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:55, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * An ERC would be fantastic right about now. I live in western SC, so this storm has been the talk of the town as of late. Send Help Please  (talk) 21:01, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * An ERC is the last thing you need right now. An ERC would expand the storm and allows it to strengthen further.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nuts. Guess the only hope is for some miracle shear to just pop up out of nowhere, which will not happen. Looks like it's time for me to get a canoe and prepare for the imminent downpour. Also, I don't think anyone ever wants to see an NHC discussion begin with "Unfortunately, the models were right". Send Help Please (talk) 22:41, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

It's hard to admit that this could be a near-worst-case scenario, but it is rapidly looking that way. Given how Flo has defied expectations, I wouldn't be surprised if Flo becomes a 5 approaching the coastline, but it'll probably be a 4 at landfall. But regardless of the exact peak intensity of this thing, a 140-145 mph landfall near Wilmington is going to have catastrophic results. The Weather Channel is already forecasting at least 12 to 18 inches of rainfall over Raleigh, the capital of NC, and it could extend further north into Richmond, DC, and other major cities up the mid-Atlantic into next week. Florence has also been enlarging in size recently, so the hurricane could have a larger reach of rainfall and storm surge when she does move ashore. Ryan1000 00:58, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also @Isaac, unfortunately, it looks like an ERC is taking place. That'll only make Flo bigger and wetter for North Carolina when she arrives, even if her winds aren't nearly as high. But, given SST's about 2 degrees C above normal, Flo would reintensify in a snap if this is confirmed in the 11 PM discussion. Ryan1000 01:39, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * One good thing about the ERC is that it may keep Florence weaker than it otherwise would be. But since the main cause of hurricane deaths are from flooding & storm surge, strength isn't as much as a concern compared to how it might bring devastating floods to the Carolinas and East Coast. Extremely frightening storm may re-RI to C5 intensity once the ERC is finished, and bring a doomsday scenario to the eastern seaboard. Lord help them... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:14, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Um, the ERC looks like it's ending. Not good. Recon is approaching the center as I type this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:47, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence has gotten such an annular structure that once the ERC ends I see practically nothing from stopping Florence from going Category 5 later today. Got my next two days off work after today too so gonna spend all my time following this system. --Whiplash (talk) 11:35, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Florence is scaring the heck out of me. It is a much bigger storm now, and seems to be getting its act back together since the EWRC. It seems the Atlantic got tired of sparing the US from major hurricanes from 2005-2016, because this will very likely be the fourth major hurricane to make landfall in the US in the past two seasons. Leeboy100 Remembering those lost on 9/11, Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:37, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * And the new advisory just came out. Florence is restrengthening again. 140 mph/945 millibars. Predicted to get up to 155 mph on Wednesday evening. Leeboy100 Remembering those lost on 9/11, Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:43, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

The ERC that she underwent overnight not only made Florence annular in appearance but it also significantly enlarged the windfield of the storm, tropical storm-force winds now go a whopping 175 miles away from the center of Florence and hurricane-force winds go 60 miles out. Flo's annular structure looks similar to Hurricane Daniel in the EPac back in 2006, but Flo could get even stronger and is affecting land. A cat 4 landfall is almost inevitable at this point, and the tucked-back position of the area of North Carolina that Florence is striking will only worsen the effects of storm surge, and Flo's slowed motion after landfall from the high pressure ridge over the Ohio valley could lead to record flooding in the state, far worse than Floyd or Matthew. This is going down in the record books... Ryan1000 21:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane warning issued for the northern South Carolina coast and the North Carolina coast. This will be catastrophic. Forecast continues to take it on the brink of C5, and it could very well reach that intensity as goes headlong into the Carolinas. Large-scale flooding especially from already saturated grounds, storm surge, extreme winds, etc. could make this become a historic cataclysm and the costliest storm EVER. It's becoming annular now?! Heck no! I have no words anymore... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:18, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 130 mph. Forecast to reach 145 mph but will weaken to 100 mph once near the coast. Still a hurricane to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:59, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * If Florence stalls near the coastline, she might not be as powerful at landfall as earlier forecast, even moreso if Florence doesn't restrengthen to a stronger cat 4 later on today, but Flo's huge size means storm surge is going to be a severe threat no matter how strong she is at landfall in NC, and inland flooding too. Landfall location also shifted southward a bit to just north of the SC/NC border, but Wilmington is still in the danger zone. Ryan1000 10:54, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is quite perplexing in the fact that her eye never really seems to stabilize enough for the RI to get going, this seems to be due to a never ending stream of ERCs. Not sure if this is good or bad as if it keeps up could lower the wind intensity at landfall. But the increased size of the storm will likely offset the benefits this would otherwise do to storm surge and ultimate damage outcome... --Whiplash (talk) 13:33, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Florence's pressure fell to 943 as of the latest advisory, also Flo has some dry air in her way which may be hindering intensification somewhat, but she's still forecast to hit 145 mph before weakening prior to her NC landfall. Ryan1000 14:18, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * These repeating ERC’s remind me of Irma last year. I don’t even know how many eyewall replacement cycles Irma went through before dramatically intensifying into a Category 5. Thankfully, the end result of Irma’s strengthening after the ERC’s is very unlikely with Florence. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 18:54, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * By the way, I forgot to mention in my last post. Florence has weakened to a Category 3. 110 kts/948 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 18:58, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Pressure up to 949, winds down to 120 mph. Florence is about to stall off the coast. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:45, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Almost a C2 now... 115 mph. Still life-threatening though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:40, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Carolinas may see some relief from wind shear that is currently tearing at Florence. However, she is also about to go over the gulf stream and some convection has begun to reappear around the eye. Whether this can get organized and allow her to stay a major hurricane remains to be seen. Either way the now very expansive windfield will continue to make the surge more similar to that of a major huricane than its category would suggest not to mention the rain... --Whiplash (talk) 01:05, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Florence was entraining a bit of dry air before, but due to ERC's the storm has now expanded to almost 200 miles across, and hurricane-force winds go 85 miles out from the center, which could lead to a storm surge equivalent to Florence's category 4 peak before. Florence is starting to look like Isabel more than Hazel at this point, as both this and Isabel were giant-size hurricanes at landfall, but weaker than their initial peaks, and both storms had (or will likely have in the case of Florence) an inland flood threat that could be worse than the initial coastal impacts. Wilmington is still directly in the firing line for a near-direct hit from Flo, and she still has some time to reintensify a little bit today before hitting Wilmington as a 115 mph major hurricane sometime Friday morning or afternoon, or as a slightly weaker but still formidable category 2 storm. But the slowing motion of Florence near the coastline and high uncertainty in the track of Florence inland (hence why the cone is so wide) can be a big problem for inland areas of the Carolinas and possibly other areas in the upper mid-Atlantic. Especially if Florence stalls right after crossing the coast, since that means Flo will have less weakening from interaction with land and more moisture buildup from the ocean, leading to even more severe inland flooding than from a faster-moving storm like Isabel. Ryan1000 02:38, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (4th time)
Weakening further. Cat 2 now. 110 mph/957 mbars. Still a dangerous storm. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 02:50, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 11 PM advisory is out, 110 mph and 957 mbars. Down to category 2 because of this, but some slight restrengthening is still possible before landfall. EDIT: Ninja'd. Ryan1000 02:51, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

A bit surprised it weakened this much. It might be because of the ERCs, large size and also NHC's discussion says that 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear was affecting Florence. Despite the weakening, no one there should even think about letting their guard down. This could still get catastrophic with flooding and stuff. A slowdown looks like it will occur after landfall, further worsening the flooding potential. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:43, September 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Flo is no longer forecast to re-intensify into a major hurricane before landfall in North Carolina, but a 100-110 mph category 2 with the huge size of Florence could still inflict serious damage to the coastline, and even more from inland flooding. The outer rainbands from Florence are already starting to reach the coastline of North Carolina. And the cone of uncertainty is still fairly wide after that, so this could move southwest into South Carolina, offshore, into Virginia, or many other scenarios. In any instance, the slowed movement of this large hurricane after landfall could cause a major inland flooding threat to the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic that could rival or exceed Floyd or Matthew, but hopefully not Harvey. Ryan1000 11:19, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * We still have some time to go and the latest microwave scans are showing that the eyewall is beginning to reorganize itself. There may be be the opportunity for a last minute strengthening back to Category 3. I do think Florence did get a little weaker since the last update though. All depends on how rapidly she reintensifies over the Gulf Stream and how slow she is going. Either way it will not have a great deal of impact on her effects. --Whiplash (talk) 14:46, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * And as I was typing that next advisory came out having wind down 5 more mph to 105. Presure is now 955 which is dropping. From here on out she will probably see some marginal intensification again up to landfall as her eye continues to rebuild. --Whiplash (talk) 14:48, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

3 PM update statement doesn't change the intensity but says Flo is moving to the WNW at 10, a slight change from her NW movement earlier. But it appeared Flo was moving in that direction in recent hours...Wilmington's likely to get a direct hit from Flo tonight or tomorrow morning, at either this intensity or as a slightly weaker 100 mph storm. However, I'd be a bit surprised if Flo ends up being a cat 1 at her landfall tonight. Ryan1000 19:25, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 5 PM advisory confirms 100 mph windspeed. Pressure stays at 955 though. Also, with Flo slowing down significantly, coastal flooding is already a problem from her TS-force winds, and rainfall is likely to be heavier in areas near the coast now. Ryan1000 20:52, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * The winds rose to 105 briefly before until they fell back to 100 as of the latest advisory. Florence also appears to be stalling just offshore, but will probably still creep closer to a landfall sometime tomorrow, and the stalling motion of Florence just offshore is not only leading to more heavy storm surge in certain locations along the North Carolina coastline, and heavy rainfall for inland flooding could build up into the landfall from this storm. --Ryan1000 02:40, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now a Category 1. 90 mph/956 mbars. Last time I can remember a Cat 1 having a pressure that low was Sandy. High winds and flooding already reported in parts of North Carolina. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 03:03, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Water rescues happening in New Bern, North Carolina right now, as a result of flooding from Florence. At the moment, it’s uncertain if the flooding there is a result of heavy rain or storm surge. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 04:04, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * I agree, this is a bit like Sandy: low pressure for its wind speed and large size (but not as large as Sandy). Although it's now only a C1, wind speed never really matters when we're dealing with a large, slow-moving, extremely flooding system because floods cause the majority of all TC deaths, and no one staying there should ever let their guard down just because it's now a "measly" C1. C1 winds can still cause damage anyway, so that also helps my argument. The Carolinas are beginning to get the brunt of impacts, including storm surge, flooding, wind gusts, water rescues, etc. as it approaches landfall in the next hours. This will be a wild (and potentially catastrophic) ride... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:16, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Exactly. I feel the exact same way. People shouldn’t let their guards down with these kind of hurricanes, no matter what category it is. Also, it is now confirmed that the flooding that resulted in the water rescues I mentioned above were caused by storm surge, not flooding. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 04:41, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

1 AM advisory out. Winds remain 90 mph, but the pressure has actually dropped 2 millibars, down to 954. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 05:16, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

I’ve been mentioning water rescues in New Bern in my past posts. Well, the situation there is far more dire than I had thought. Apparently, the flooding there from storm surge and the continuous rain has resulted in the water rising to more than 10 feet resulting in 150 people needing to be rescued. Unbelievable. Huge storm surge is also occurring in other nearby areas as well, and there’s already 180,000 people without power in North Carolina alone. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 07:44, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

I actually messed up my last post. Those 150 people haven’t been rescued, they are awaiting rescue. However, 200 people have been rescued. So, that’s actually a total of 350 people who needed or are needing rescue in New Bern, North Carolina. My mistake, the numbers were right in front of me, but I misinterpreted what was being said because I’m getting tired since I’m up so late tracking this. I hope everyone stays safe. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 08:11, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Pressure has now risen to 958, and water levels are at least 7 feet above normal in Emerald Isle. Wilmington is going to be hit later today, sometime this afternoon probably. I expected Flo to slow down before landfall, but not by this much. Ryan1000 10:08, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall in North Carolina
And Florence has officially made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, NC. Florence will still get the boot after this, as she is now expected to become the wettest North Carolina hurricane/cyclone ever. Rainfall totals are expected to reach 40 inches. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:47, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pressure up to 964, winds down to 80 mph. Florence is now moving slowly – very slowly – to the west. Oriental, NC has already recorded 18.53 inches of rainfall from this storm. This is a (relatively) weaker combination of Floyd, Hugo, Isabel, Matthew, Hazel and Harvey, but also a very large one, much like Sandy. Regardless, this is bad for the Carolinas, just like how Mangkhut/Ompong is simultaneously doing right now in northern Philippines. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:23, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is becoming North Carolina's most destructive hurricane ever. Rainfall records are being broken as of the moment. Someone in the news (forgot if it was ABC or CBS) mentioned that a gauge in one of the towns in NC is already reaching Diane's 63-year record or Diana's 34 year-record ( I think it was actually 1984's Hurricane Diana that they were referring to; the storm affected Beaufort and eastern NC that year EDIT: Could have been either of the two as the reporter did not specify the year). In other news, Florence is now down to 75 mph as her pressure increases to 968 millibars, but this is just the beginning of The Carolinas' Harvey. Of course the worst-case scenario would be breaking Harvey's one-year-old record; hopefully it won't materialise. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:35, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Sadly, Florence has now become deadly upon landfall. 3 deaths have now been confirmed in North Carolina. A tree fell on a house in Wilmington, killing a mother and her infant child, and also leaving the father injured. A woman in Pender County died of a heart attack likely brought on by the storm. These aren’t the first deaths caused by Florence, there were two storm surge related deaths a few days ago, but these are the first to happen upon landfall. Hopefully the death toll doesn’t get too much higher. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 19:18, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence (3rd time)
Downgraded to a TS. Florence will get retired after this season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:44, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Ah, you beat me to the update by a minute. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:45, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * ...FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA... I love how Stewart felt compelled to start the latest advisory with this, lol. A little bit of humor in a bleak situation. Our last remaining 'F' name is toast. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:17, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Odd thing is, Florence is actually the name of a city there, though I wouldn't "go with the Flo" in this case. In any instance, I'd be surprised if Florence isn't a highly destructive storm when all is said and done; there's already reports of walls and roofs collapsing on even large buildings from Flo's prolonged winds and rainfall, and somewhat extensive surge. The biggest problem with this storm though, is that although it's not as strong as other east coast hurricanes, it's literally stuck just inland from the coast and can't move. The high pressure system over the Ohio River Valley that's been creating nice, sunny weather where I live is keeping Florence in a stationary position just inland to the west of Wilmington, over North Carolina, and Flo's proximity to shallow coastal waters and lack of mountains means her rains probably won't die out anytime soon, and rainfall flooding could be very severe in North Carolina because of that. According to Dr. Masters and Bob Henson's latest blog post, North Carolina's wettest hurricane (Floyd) brought about 24.06 inches of rain at its peak in the state, but if Flo continues to sit just inland over North Carolina without moving over the next few days (which I don't think has happened in North Carolina with a Cape-Verde type storm before), then Florence could easily break Floyd's record and be the wettest U.S. hurricane outside of Florida, Texas, or Hawaii, with 40 or more inches of rain possible. Ryan1000 00:56, September 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Just saw the latest blog post from Dr. Masters, and Florence's storm surge apparently broke multiple 1 in 100 year records in the areas of North Carolina that it struck, especailly Wilmington, Beaufort, and Topsail Beach, largely due to Florence's large size and sluggish movement that allowed the continuous buildup of surging water on the coastline, with winds of 48-64 mph being recorded for 12 straight hours from 8 AM to 8 PM yesterday (by UTC) in Wilmington. Not to mention the flooding rainfall threat that will likely exisst into the middle of next week. Ryan1000 01:35, September 15, 2018 (UTC)

Apparently Florence has surpassed Floyd's rainfall record. A report from The Washington Post says that 30.5 inches of rain fell at Swansboro, NC. If this continues, Lane and Harvey's records may also be broken by Florence. 11 dead so far, 7 of them in North Carolina. Florida and South Carolina recorded two deaths each. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, September 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * These rainfall totals are really getting insane at the moment. Although I'm still not sure if it will go as far as to break the records of Harvey and Lane. Its speed should start speeding up a bit tomorrow but rain in the Carolinas should continue for the next couple days, and the rain should become lighter as Florence starts slowly moving away. Florence should be retired after this year so say goodbye to the final remaining original "F" name. However, I'm going to wait until Florence dissipates before adding the retirement percentage and storm grade to my retirements section. A weird coincidence that Florence is affecting a town named "Florence" lol. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:44, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Florence may be moving west but the heaviest rainbands are still on the northeastern side of the storm, still stalling over southern North Carolina and likely still causing major flood damage to Wilmington and surrounding areas northeast of the city. Ryan1000 05:14, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence
And she's down to a TD. Rainfall and flooding threats continue. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:47, September 16, 2018 (UTC)


 * With regards to the storm you mentioned above A2.0, I think the media may have instead meant 1955's Hurricane Diane, which was 63 years ago, instead of 1984's Diana, both of which caused heavy flood damage in North Carolina, and the former caused over 150 deaths in New England and North Carolina only shortly after Hurricane Connie struck the state. The two names may be confusing. In any instance, Flo beat both of them, and Floyd too, in terms of rainfall in North Carolina. Fortunately, the heaviest rain finally seems to be dying down in the area around Wilmington. Ryan1000 16:08, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Most likely it would be Diane. Regardless, both Diana '84 & Diane were destructive, but not as severe as this one. NHC has already issued its final advisory for Florence, but WPC will continue to issue more advisories as Florence remains a flood threat. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

While the Wilmington area and other towns and cities to the northeast are slowly getting off the hook, Florence's rainfall could cause localized flash floods in the Appalachians when she reaches that area, per Dr. Master's latest blog post on Flo. The rainfall in some areas can be seen as similar to Harvey, since both this storm and Harvey slowed to a crawl upon their landfalls and the southwest-northeast shape of the Texas and North Carolina coastlines allowed for both this storm and Harvey to bring up a lot of tropical moisture from offshore to amplify their flood threats, though this won't be as destructive as Harvey since the area Flo is affecting isn't as populated as Houston and Flo was much weaker than Harvey at her initial landfall. But still, I'd be surprised if Flo doesn't end up in the top 15 or even top 10 costliest hurricanes for the United States when all is said and done, due to her severe flooding. Ryan1000 18:57, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence
Gone for good now. Say good-bye to the last original F name of all 6 lists (unless it regenerates, which some models are showing Florence pulling an Ivan, looping and regenerating). ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     20:50, September 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * I personally don't see that happening; assuming it doesn't do that, the worst of Flo is now over. Ryan1000 04:07, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope it doesn't do that because the U.S. has seen enough from this catastrophic storm. At last, say goodbye to the longest lasting name in Atlantic history, first used in 1953 (as well as the final original F name). Damages will most likely be enough for Florence to end up in the top 10 costliest on record once it's all said and done. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:07, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

Farewell to a fascinating yet very destructive storm. This may also be the last time that Florence will be used, one of the names used the longest in a single basin (if not the longest ever; I believe only PAGASA's Auring can rival it, although that name was first used 10 years after Florence.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:48, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * By the way, the damage totals is estimated to be at $17-22 billion. That makes Florence the costliest for the Carolinas, perhaps surpassing Floyd (for NC) and Hugo (for SC). While those totals seem to be relatively small compared to Harvey, Maria, Irma and Sandy, that still proves how damaging Florence was. She will definitely be gone from the lists after this year. 25 deaths so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:27, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Let's not archive this for at least two weeks, something might happen later on.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:58, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

The most commonly used storm name in the Atlantic isn't Florence, but Arlene from Atlantic list 3 (last year) which was used 11 times since 1959 and will be used again in 2023, I mentioned that in my retirement predictions last year in the Atlantic. Estelle from list 2 in the EPac ties Arlene, with 11 uses of Estelle since 1960. Florence has been used 10 times in the Atlantic (though it was also used 5 times in the EPac). A few other storm names on the old Atlantic naming lists were also used many times in the WPac, like Irma of last year. Ryan1000 12:27, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * I know, as Florence was not used in the Atlantic between 1964 and 1988. That is why I said the longest instead of saying it was the most used name. Anyway, Florence deserves to have her own archive, but as its effects still linger in the U.S., I second Dylan's suggestion. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:33, September 19, 2018 (UTC)

Well of course any name used since 1953 that would just get retired recently would have the longest history since it was first used in the Atlantic; Irene formerly held that record since it was also used in 1953 but retired in 2011, and if Dolly of list 6 gets retired in 2020 or later, it would beat Florence too. Though in total number of times used, Florence is a runner-up to Arlene/Estelle in the NHC's AOR (for a single basin, but if you combine the Atlantic and EPac uses of Florence, that would make 15 instead of 11). And since this was a significant and destructive storm, yeah, we'll leave this section up to discuss Florence's aftermath and post-storm implications for a week or two before archiving it by, say the start of October. And since August was inactive as heck this year, we'll put it into a mixed archive with September. Ryan1000 16:45, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * florence, take ur broken machine somewhere else and use it there. oh wait you aren't coming back bish --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:37, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * And reiterating what Steve said in his retirement forecast section, damage totals from Florence has skyrocketed to $38 billion, surpassing Ike as the 6th costliest Atlantic hurricane. Florence will definitely be struck from List IV next spring. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:40, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, definitely. It might enter the top 5 once damage totals are finalized. BTW, would you guys mind if the other August storms are archived? Florence should get its own archive anyway. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:50, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

I mentioned above that August can be put together with September in a mixed archive by the start of October, because this year's August was so inactive that we can mix the two months in one archive. But Leslie and Kirk are still up right now. In about another week we'll archive Florence and August-September, and maybe keep up Kirk or Leslie if they're still active by then. Ryan1000 09:13, September 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * That plan sounds good. I never even read your post when writing the above, sorry about that. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:19, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

September
September is just around the corner; might as well add this section now, especially now that the Hispaniola AOI is expected to form in September – if it ever forms. Add that AOI to this section if it organizes to a TD or a TS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:02, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Hispaniola
Not officially invested or mentioned on TWO, but many global models are hinting that this tropical wave could spell trouble for interests from Bahamas all the way to the Gulf Coast. Because of the timing of the wave near Africa, I would throroughly expect this system to be Gordon. Waters are warm in the GOM and systems that get there don't play around or abide by the rules. Let's keep our eyes open for him. Owen 11:59, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm assuming the AOI south of Hispaniola the NHC now has is this AOI you mentioned. It is forecast to enter the Gulf in the coming days. Currently at 0/10 due to land proximity.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:08, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * And strong upper-level winds are currently hitting the system, but conditions could allow for development in the long term. Hopefully it doesn't turn into a GOM monster... I never had a good feeling about the name "Gordon". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:38, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

This is still at 0/10, but the NHC expects development to be more likely when it reaches a point southwest of Florida in the GOM down the road. Also, the Euro is picking up on two more waves behind PTC 6. Depending on the development of those 3 storms, we could be up to Isaac by the 2nd week of September or so. But because of the Bermuda High's placement, these storms are currently expected to turn west-northwest and eventually northeast out to sea. GFS no longer makes PTC 6 a hit on Bermuda down the road. Ryan1000 18:43, August 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up 10/40... Send Help Please  (talk) 15:36, September 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * Development area extended from the Florida Panhandle to south of Louisiana and near Texas. The long-range GFS even took this to the Texas/Mexico border. Hopefully this AOI doesn't get too strong before hitting land somewhere in the Gulf. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/50. Since the start of 2018, I had an eerily feeling for the names Gordon, Helene and Michael.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:33, September 02, 2018 (UTC)


 * I have the same feeling for those exact 3 names. If this becomes Gordon, it could explode in the GOM, strike the Gulf Coast, and fulfill our fear. Or if this doesn't become strong, it could be a major flooding disaster like Allison or a weak Harvey. But let's hope it doesn't become either of these. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:37, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

I've had bad feelings for Florence and Isaac on this year's naming list, as well as Gordon, the former two because they're the only original "F" and "I" names since 1979 that haven't been retired (though Isaac came close last time in 2012), and Gordon may eventually want to avenge his 1994 snub. Though it may not happen with this storm if it becomes Gordon, assuming it doesn't get too strong in the GOM down the road. Ryan1000 05:23, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/60 now. Perhaps Gordon may come from this one. Let's see whether this becomes Hermine 2.0 or Julia 2016 version 2, or worse, Allison/Isaac 2.0. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:43, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Raised to 50/80. Gordon is coming, even if this ain't an invest yet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:36, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Now it's invested, per Tropical Tidbits. Still at 50/80 on the NHC's TWO. Ryan1000 17:26, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 70/90 per TWO.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:44, September 02, 2018 (UTC)


 * And the Atlantic has finally came back to life. I am not looking forward to any destruction though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:04, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven
Now a PTC. Here's hoping that shear will keep this at bay. Send Help Please (talk) 21:24, September 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to peak at 60 mph before striking the mouth of the Mississippi delta. Unless it unexpectedly RI's, I doubt it'll be too severe for the New Orleans area. Ryan1000 21:31, September 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, I had a feeling all year that "Gordon" would be something possibly significant. Due to this, I won't be extremely surprised if it actually tries to RI in the Gulf or, if not, it turns into a major flooding disaster. Hopefully none of my scare-predictions come true and it is only going to be a tropical storm when it makes landfall in Louisiana, and not be anything bad. The NHC forecast does seem to slow it down over Texas-Oklahoma as a dissipating system, and that might be a hint of what's to come with future forecasts (like seeing it stalling over land, potentially causing major flooding). Hopefully not though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:10, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Dylan also noted a trend back in 2012 (the last time Gordon was used) that may be broken with this storm; over the past 40 years, every season with the 8 in it's one's place has had its "G" name retired: Greta in 1978, Gilbert in 1988, Georges in 1998, and Gustav in 2008, but it looks like Gordon of 2018 won't be doing that. Ryan1000 05:44, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gordon
It skipped tropical depression status and immediately became this. It is forecast to strike New Orleans with 60 mph winds by Wednesday. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 12:45, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Landfall shifted a bit to the north now, and is expected to strike the Louisiana-Mississippi border. Currently, Gordon is hitting south Florida near Homestead, just south of Miami. Rainfall is the only real threat from a weak TS like Gordon. Ryan1000 13:44, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Watch issued from the mouth of the Pearl River to the MS/AL border. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:46, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to reach 70 mph. There is a chance that we might see another Hurricane Gordon from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:31, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Hmm...Gordon's been organizing a bit lately, maybe he could reach cat 1 strength just before hitting the Gulf Coast like Nate did in October of last year. Ryan1000 16:10, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * I think RI is looking increasingly likely as it is already forming what looks like the beginning of a an eyewall/core and it has only been offshore Florida for like 2 hours. I wouldn't rule out even a Category 2 in a worst case scenario. It is extremely small and becoming increasingly well defined. --Whiplash (talk) 16:39, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also can I take this moment to say the 12Z GFS is totally bonkers with its prediction and should probably be ignored since it isn't representing this storm well at all. --Whiplash (talk) 17:04, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon now up to 50/1007, and according to this tweet, Gordon may have started to RI.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:50, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * The change is official as of latest advisory, and the NHC notes the possibility of it hitting Cat. 1, though it looks to be getting it's act together very fast. This brings back memories of the NHC predicting a Cat. 1 landfall out of Harvey early in its life... Send Help Please  (talk) 18:05, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * New cone for Gordon now shows Gordon becoming a hurricane just before landfall near the Louisiana-Mississippi border, thus giving out a Hurricane Warning for that region.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:54, September 03, 2018 (UTC)

Still 60 mph/1003 mbars as of the latest advisory, and threatening the Gulf Coast around Mississippi as a potential hurricane. I hope they make it through okay! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:52, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Gordon has only a day or so to become a hurricane before landfall, Harvey had about two and a half from when he was rapidly organizing to approaching Texas, also Gordon's not nearly as well-organized as Harvey was right now. Category 2 might be pushing it a bit, but Gordon could very well become a 1. Ryan1000 05:04, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Now I am starting to think we will not see a hurricane from this one. It is moving fast at 17 mph, but its winds are already at 65 mph. Gordon has only a few hours to become a hurricane operationally. The Gulf Coast still needs to prepare though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:42, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still 65 mph as of the latest advisory, but NHC still expects Gordon to become a hurricane before hitting Louisiana and Mississippi. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:45, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon may be following Fay 2008 after all, in terms of intensity. Winds have increased to 70 mph now, but it is getting closer to land. Sadly, at least one death has already been attributed to Gordon (in Miami). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:43, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'll be very honest: at this point, I hope Gordon manages to close the gap between its current intensity and hurricane status. The impacts of a 60-kt TS and a 65-kt hurricane are scarcely different. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:30, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon now up to 70/1000 however, I doubt it will have time to become a hurricane.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:32, September 04, 2018 (UTC)

Gordon is making landfall as we speak. I haven’t been on much, because I’m getting personally affected. A tornado warning was just issued not that far from me about 25 minutes ago, and it’s been raining pretty hard. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:07, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Landfall official. Near the AL/MS border. 70 mph/997 millibars. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:55, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Fun fact: unless Gordon is upgraded in reanalysis, this will be the first incarnation of Gordon to not reach hurricane intensity, as all of his previous 4 incarnations since he replaced Gilbert became hurricanes. Ryan1000 04:19, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now at 40 mph/1002 mb. Gordon is on his way out. Send Help Please  (talk) 10:53, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gordon
He is dying now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:45, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories now. Unfortunately, so far this storm killed 2 people. Let's hope the damages and deaths do not rise in the coming days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Gordon’s sustained winds as of the latest advisory are 10 mph. Those have got to be the lowest sustained winds I’ve ever seen in a tropical system. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:14, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still at 10/1014. I've never seen a depression with 10 mph.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     22:10, September 06, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's probably not even an actual tropical depression anymore. They just keep issuing advisories as long as it remains a flood threat. I never saw a 10 mph reading either, and I would be shocked if an actual tropical cyclone can actually get this weak. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:53, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gordon
Gone for good now. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     03:36, September 08, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally. That took a while. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gordon 's reaction to this year's Atlantic incarnation being (operationally) the first not to reach hurricane strength, watching as Florence, Helene, and Isaac all become hurricanes: --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:07, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SE behind Florence
Another wave behind Florence, currently at 0/20. The Atlantic may have awaken. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:45, September 02, 2018 (UTC)
 * This wave may be of greater concern down the road, with the current forecast bringing it due west and farther south than Florence. Assuming PTC 7 becomes Gordon, this storm (Helene-to-be) may be a threat to the Caribbean or U.S. east coast in the long run. Ryan1000 21:31, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic is waking up it seems. About time! This AOI I'm concerned about. If it heads on a more southern trajectory, we could be dealing with an east coast or even Lesser Antilles threat in the very long term (unless it recurves like a classic non-threatening Cape-Verde type hurricane). I've always had an eerie feeling about the name "Helene" this season, and in the betting pools I forecasted a record-powerful system. This could be one to really watch out for. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:16, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also have an eerie feeling of the name "Helene" since January. Models, including GFS and Euro, shows a hurricane (not sure if its Florence or this AOI) coming near the US East Coast). Anyways, this is up to 0/30.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     16:04, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well at 2 pm advisory, this wave at 10/40 now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:54, September 03, 2018 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
And now we have Invest 92L. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:19, September 03, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/50.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * Here comes a potentially formidable Helene... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:44, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Helene may become a formidable one this year after all. Still 10/50, but with plenty of ocean ahead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:44, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/70! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:53, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Helene is definitely coming from this one. The track reminds me of Irma and Maria from last year though. This isn't looking good for the ravaged Caribbean islands. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:36, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * This might actually follow near the footsteps of Flo down the road and turn northeastward out to sea. Earlier it was forecast to be a Caribbean threat, but both of the global models now take this somewhat north of the lessers, which would be good news for them after what they saw last year. Ryan1000 15:50, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hopefully those global models right now are correct. Helene is one of my favorite names in this list (aside from Florence, Rafael & Valerie), and I would not want it yet to become a retirement candidate. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:58, September 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it's 30/80. Please be a fishspinner... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:26, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 40/90. Here comes Helene!  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 04, 2018 (UTC)

70/90. Any time now... Ryan1000 19:59, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * I bet this will form tomorrow. I don't know if this will be a fishspinner; GFS ensembles on Tropical Tidbits track this towards the Lesser Antilles, kind of like a re-Irma. I'm begging you future Helene: do not threaten land. I still have an eerie feeling about this system... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:28, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still 70/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:32, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:36, September 06, 2018 (UTC)


 * This is taking its sweet time to develop. Now it has become a race to see who will take Helene or Isaac first. Hopefully it's this system that takes the name Helene, because this came first as an AOI and everybody posted about this system potentially becoming "Helene" instead of "Isaac". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:57, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
And the race for Helene is still on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:30, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * This looks to be a threat to the Caribbean, which saw enough activity last year. Hopefully Isaac weakens before he impacts the islands. Send Help Please  (talk) 23:09, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

This could actually become Helene first, but in any instance both of the global models currently don't do much with it once it passes the Lessers due to less-than-ideal conditions currently in the Caribbean. But it's still too soon to tell if that'll change later on, as it did with Harvey last year. Ryan1000 00:55, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Nvm, TD 8 did become Helene. Ryan1000 02:51, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Recently there's been a nice blowup over the center and I fully expect it to be classified as Isaac later today. NHC makes this a category two hurricane approaching the Lesser Antilles, which is not rainbows and unicorns. The dreaded "I" storm bears watching once again this year. Owen 05:27, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is the loser of the race! Here comes Isaac and a likely continuation of the curse. I don't like the looks of this thing... The 5-day point on the forecast is 100 mph (likely conservative IMO) and if it continues on current track, we could be dealing with an Irma/Maria repeat. This really, really needs to be watched. I might as well bring back an adage from last year. Remember, for it to make sense, the "I" in my adage means "eye". Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * According to the NHC there's supposed to be 20-25 knots of shear when future Isaac gets close to the Lesser Antilles though, so hopefully he'll weaken some before moving over the islands. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:44, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac
AL, 09, 2018090818,, BEST, 0, 145N, 363W, 35, 1005, TS

Not made official yet by NHC, but as ATCF goes NHC goes. Isaac is finally here - and the TSR forecast earlier this season of 9-4-1 is now a bust. Owen 19:20, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * And NHC makes it official. Isaac is here. Expected to peak as a Category 1, similar to his 2012 incarnation. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:49, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to become a 100 mph storm now, but weaken before striking the Antilles. The track after that is still uncertain; the global models currently and formerly over their past few runs forecast dissipation or weakening from Isaac while moving west towards Central America, but it was also in one run forecast to turn north towards the Greater ntilles down the road. We'll see. Ryan1000 05:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/997 and should be hurricane soon. This year maybe the second year in a row to have 3 active hurricanes.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:42, September 09, 2018 (UTC)

While this may be a definitely a minority opinion of models right now there are some saying this could become a major before it hits the Antilles. Can't rule out a re-Maria since we know what happened last year. This could be retirement candidate number 2 depending on how it develops. Too soon to know at the moment though. --Whiplash (talk) 20:59, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Both the GFS and Euro were aggressive with Maria though (not as aggressive as she actually became, but still aggressive nonetheless). Not so with Isaac. The HWRF (the best intensity model for forecasting most of the super-strong hurricanes last year) forecasts a 3 down the road with Isaac, but hopefully not before hitting the Lessers. However, if Isaac turns northward down the road when he reaches the western Caribbean, this could intensify more by then and/or be a potential GOM threat. Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Isaac
Getting a bit hurricane drunk...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:23, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Um...Isaac's still a TS on NHC as I type this...Ryan1000 01:41, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * ATCF.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:28, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Now confirmed by NHC. This makes 2018 the second consecutive year with three simultaneous hurricanes on the same day (a first), and the first time since 2005 in which 3 simultaneous hurricanes were active in the open Atlantic Ocean on the same day, as 2017 and 2010 each had their "K" storm (Katia and Karl, respectively) in the BoC. I believe 2005 had Maria, Nate, and Ophelia on September 8. Ryan1000 03:00, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's really fitting for this to occur right on the historical peak of the season (September 10). It could continue to intensify and potentially reach major hurricane status before weakening. The Lesser Antilles may be pounded by this. However, if it survives through the Caribbean, we could be dealing with another monster in the very long run. Stay tuned... Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:45, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac (2nd time)
Down to a TS, but expected to be a hurricane again. ~ Roy25    Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     03:14, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * A bit surprised to see this fall below hurricane strength already, but it should re-intensify a bit before weakening again by Thursday. NHC no longer shows much intensification - only up 5 mph to 75 mph and that's it. I certainly won't be surprised though if Isaac can get stronger than that before Thursday. Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:20, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Watches issued for Guadeloupe, Martinique, and Dominica; Tropical Storm Watches issued for Antigua and Montserrat. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:18, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

No longer expected to become a hurricane, but still a threat to the Lessers. Kinda reminds me of Erika (I do not hope for a déjà vu here). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:06, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Unlike Erika, this already became a hurricane at one point. Let's hope the Windward Islands make it through okay. However, it's going to strike regions that were devastated by Maria last year (like Dominica), and this may worsen recovery efforts. Or worse... this could be a re-Erika in terms of devastation (hope not). Expected to dissipate by the end of the forecast, but I'll keep the adage in case this is destructive for the Windwards. Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:25, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Isaac had to deal with some wind shear lately (partly because of Florence's outflow) and his small size like Beryl earlier this year makes him susceptible to even slight changes in the environment. However, if conditions for development improve when Isaac reaches the western Caribbean southwest of Cuba, he could reorganize by then or in the GOM when he turns northwest, so just because the windwards aren't likely to get too much from this doesn't mean Isaac is out just yet. But it would still take a lot of work for Isaac to recover from where he is right now. Ryan1000 02:49, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * NHC forecast now shows Isaac remaining tropical through early next week, but it's almost certain at this point that it will degenerate into a wave along the way. However, we shouldn't really let our guard down yet. They mention in the discussion that more favorable conditions are coming by the time it reaches the west-central Caribbean, and it could regenerate after that time. It might be possible it could still be a U.S. threat in the very long term, but you never know. So far, this already has some similarities to Harvey... Beware the I of the storm!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:24, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Isaac
He's degenerating, but I think I have seen this scenario a year ago. I don't want another Harvey here... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:15, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to dissipate in 96 hours. I guess it is safe to say that we won't have a repeat of Harvey from Isaac. (thank God!) And this also means that Isaac will return in 2024, unless the Lesser Antilles suffered some Erika-esque impacts. So far there is no report of any notable damage from Isaac. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:39, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac (3rd time)
Well... this was unexpected! Back up to 35 kts/1002 mbar, but still forecast (with low confidence) to dissipate in about four days. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:21, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Isaac's fate in the western Caribbean/GOM later on is highly uncertain...he could open up into a tropical wave like the global models have consistently inisisted on doing with him, due to his tiny, currently disorganized size, but conditions for development are expected to improve in the western Caribbean and it's not impossible things could change with Isaac by the time he reaches there. I wouldn't write him off just yet. But I wouldn't jump to any bad conclusions either. Ryan1000 22:13, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Isaac
Poof. He's gone. See you again in 2024. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:53, September 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * Good, maybe I won't have to put up with this storm. I don't really need another storm right now because its already been raining for days where I live. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:09, September 15, 2018 (UTC)

Isaac's remnants back up on the TWO, 20/20 at the moment. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:09, September 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's currently moving toward a hostile environment. This probably won't redevelop and shouldn't be a re-Harvey at this point. Looks like the "I" curse took a break for this year (even if it did affect the Windwards). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:51, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Flo's southern outflow is shearing ex-Isaac more than I expected, so it may not be as likely to regenerate for the near-term, though it's still a possibility later on. Ryan1000 04:54, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

And now near 0%. Looks like Isaac will have to try again in 2024. I doubt he'll do much of anything now due to persistent, hostile conditions for development. Ryan1000 04:07, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * And gone from the TWO. The "I" curse is broken again (thankfully). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * isaac: "i sucked" --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:37, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging off the coast of Africa
Another AOI forecast to emerge out of Africa in a few days, currently at 0/20. The Atlantic is really waking up. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:20, September 04, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30. A Cape Verde-type Isaac, anyone? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:38, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/40 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:27, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope Isaac will be a fishspinning Cape-Verde type hurricane. The Atlantic is wide awake now! Please don't threaten land in the distant long run though... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:30, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

0/50. All 3 major Northern Hemisphere basins are currentlt conveyor belts now. WPac has 3 invests (or actually, 2 invests and 1 TD as JMA considers 98W as a TD already), the Atlantic has 2 systems, 1 invest & 1 AOI, and the EPac (including CPac) has 2 storms and 1 invest. We are really at the peak of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:53, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * (And CPac naming list remains unused since Ulika 2016.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:31, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 20/60, plus another wave could be coming off of Africa behind this one. Ryan1000 18:53, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Now an invest, and STWO out a couple of minutes ago, and this jumped to 50/80. Here comes Isaac! ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:37, September 06, 2018 (UTC)
 * Or maybe even Helene. Depending on 92L's pace (in terms of formation), 93L can either become Helene or Isaac at this point. While 92L is forecast to move westward, 93L is expected to curve to the northeast in the long run. This has a higher chance of becoming a fishspinner compared to 92L. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:50, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Went up to 70/90. Now its a race between 92L and 93L, winner gets Helene, looser gets Isaac. Who will win?  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:08, September 07, 2018 (UTC)


 * Woah, that percentage really jumped since yesterday. If it continues organizing at current pace, we might see it beat the system in front to "Helene". With all that ocean up ahead, this looks very ominous in the long run, but this is more likely than 92L to be a fishspinner. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:00, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

80/90. 92L is 90/90, but I think 93L will become 08L first. Not sure about Helene yet though, but if 92L develops slower than 93L and becomes Isaac, I think it would be safe to say that the "I" curse will live on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:10, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it is 90/90. Looks better than 92L too. Cape Verde needs to prepare for the rains. Also, I saw one tweet that has a GIF which puts Florence near (or even over) Bermuda later on, with 92L fizzling while 93L looking like a major. Isaac may have to wait if 92L won't develop. I personally think it won't happen, but that simulation on Twitter is interesting nonetheless. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:16, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight
Whoops. Helene may be coming from this one after all. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still a PTC according to the latest advisory. May become Isaac though, as 92L finally became TD 9. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:32, September 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Now a tropical depression, upgraded the same time as TD 09. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:00, September 07, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Helene
Upgraded to TS Helene. 40 mph and 1002 mbars as of the latest advisory. Ryan1000 02:51, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, instead of an edit conflict, my post got removed and replaced with Ryan's post. Anyways, Helene should be a fish hurricane.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:55, September 08, 2018 (UTC)


 * Not so much of a fish, unfortunately, since she's passing by the Cape Verde Islands. But impacts there shouldn't be too severe. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:11, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * But after Cape Verde, it probably won't affect any land at all. Hopefully this becomes something amazing intensity-wise. NHC forecast only takes it to 75 mph, but considering all the surprises we've been seeing... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:35, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Helene
Now a hurricane with 75 mph and 992 mbars. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     20:41, September 09, 2018 (UTC)
 * Could get a little stronger as it heads north and eventually out to sea. Ryan1000 23:46, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Up slightly to 85/984. Ryan1000 03:00, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * This might still become a major, and hopefully it does become one because it'll be a fishspinner. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:47, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

105/974 per 11AM advisory. Could become a major soon. Ryan1000 14:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now up to 110 mph/968 mb. Just another 5 mph upgrade and it's a major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:22, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * 12z ATCF keeps the winds steady at 95 kts but downs the pressure slightly to 966 mbar... 🎶Come on Helene!🎵 --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:39, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 90 knots. Helene is turning out to be Fabio and John's Atlantic sister... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:50, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Fabio and John were hyped up from the very beginning, and both storms were forecast to become Category 4s. The NHC didn't forecast Helene to become a major hurricane until it hit 90 kts, and Helene's forecast peak never went above 100 kts. Disappointing, yes, but not as much so as Fabio or John. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:35, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Helene had to be a 110 mph failicia... *sigh* I was hoping for a major. Disappointing almost like John and Fabio. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:28, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 80 mph, should be a TS soon and might also interact with Joyce. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:45, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Look on the bright side: Helene only fell 5 kts short of its forecast peak, as opposed to 20 kts in Fabio's case and 25 kts in John's. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:23, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Helene (2nd time)
Down to 70 mph. May become an extratropical threat to Europe though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:50, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Tropical storm watches issued for the Azores, and potential Europe extratropical threat as well (like you said). Hopefully Azores and Europe will make it through okay. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:27, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now passing the Azores and should be extratropical soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:52, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene
And there she goes. Last advisory issued. What a storm though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:58, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * was in nw portuguese coast recently, waves were very weak, also in spain, i got a little bit of lightning, and upon return to the uk, i flew in her, got a little turbulence before getting almost throttled by ali. not bad fam. --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:39, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
New invest according to Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:33, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now on the NHC at 10/20. I have doubts this will affect Florence's future track tbh.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:59, September 07, 2018 (UTC)

Waste of an invest. Honestly I think Flo will absorb it when she moves towards it over the next few days. Ryan1000 00:55, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, kind of like how John ate Ileana in the EPac, except in this case there's only one TC here. Down to 10/10, and won't become anything at all. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:37, September 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:56, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Several hundred miles WSW of the Azores
The NHC forecasts a disturbance may form in this location, currently at 0/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:34, September 08, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30. Will we see another subtropical system here? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:51, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

0/40. The Atlantic is really heating up. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:55, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yep, the Atlantic is on fire! If this develops, this will probably either be a Debby/Ernesto repeat or a Michael '12 repeat. The race for Joyce is already on with this AOI vs. the western Caribbean system. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/50.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     19:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 20/50.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     18:02, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * 30/50, and this will most likely be Kirk unless it pulls a surprise on us. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:34, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Finally made into an invest; 40/50 as of the moment. Forecast to move towards the British Isles and Europe later on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:46, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Suddenly jumped to 90/90. Wow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:07, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Tropical Tidbits is calling this SS Joyce. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:43, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Weather Channel is calling this Joyce as well. Now we wait for the NHC to make it official. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:37, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Joyce
And NHC makes it official. 1006 mbars, 45 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:40, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * And here we have Debby 3.0. Send Help Please  (talk) 20:44, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

This September has been nuts. Joyce is expected to become tropical and peak at 60 mph. - VileMaster (talk) 20:44, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * With the formation of Joyce, 2018 marks the first time since 2008 to have 4 named storms simultaneously. If 95L manages to get the name Kirk while Isaac doesn't degenerate to a post-tropical storm, then 2018 maybe the first season to have 5 named storms simultaneously. Joyce also makes 2018 to have 5 subtropical storms in a single season. Idk if that happened before.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:09, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

I believe that would be a record, but in 1974 all 4 of that season's storms peaked as subtropical storms. In this year, only Alberto lived entirely subtropical, while the other 4 storms (Beryl, Debby, Ernesto, and now (potentially) Joyce) were tropical at some other point instead. Ryan1000 02:44, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * I can't believe we have the 5th subtropical storm this season! Must be a record to be honest. Plus, the Atlantic is absolutely crazy right now! Four active storms at the same time is something I never would have expected out of this year. Anyway, Joyce might have a better chance at becoming a hurricane than Debby or Ernesto. Or even it pulls a Michael '12 but I doubt it. Joyce could also interact with Helene soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Joyce
Down to 40 mph, but Joyce is now tropical. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:41, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's funny how close to Helene this is, but NHC forecasts don't show an Ileana-John repeat (unless it occurs after Sunday). This is becoming one of the worst name-wastes in the Atlantic so far this year. "Joyce" hasn't had a good run lately, also epically failing in 2012... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * I think I saw this restrengthen to 45 mph earlier, but now it's 40 mph again. Will continue to weaken gradually while doing a somewhat Nadine-esque track south of the Azores. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:55, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Joyce
And she's down to a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:58, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Joyce may not even affect the Azores at this point, and instead dissipate south of the islands. Ryan1000 16:28, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still going, but will likely die out by tomorrow morning. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:09, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce
And she's gone.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:21, September 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * And just like in 2012...Joyce has no choice...but to come back again in 6 years. Ryan1000 03:49, September 19, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Over NW Caribbean Sea
Another one. The Atlantic is busy now (after all, we are at the peak of the season). This disturbance at 0/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:03, September 09, 2018 (UTC)


 * Where did this come from? Why is this a thing? Is this a threat? Models don't seem to be picking up on this much at all? If this becomes a tropical storm and hits Texas it could be bad as Texas is already hugely oversaturated flash floods killed 3 in the state earlier today... --Whiplash (talk) 20:57, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0/30. Has an outside chance to become TS Joyce before hitting Texas, but it won't be anywhere near a re-Harvey for the state. Flo is the main threat at the moment. Ryan1000 23:46, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Or even Kirk if the system southwest of the Azores develops first. This one probably won't get too strong IMO, and hopefully it's nothing bad in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:53, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Now an invest, and has been upped to 30/50. ~ Roy25    Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     19:18, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/60.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     03:15, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * While Florence is lurking, we have another threat to the United States. This one, though, shouldn't be nearly as strong. Texans should monitor this system (possible Joyce). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:25, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * 50/70 now, and this maybe Joyce/Kirk (this will probably get Joyce first).  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     18:01, September 11, 2018 (UTC)



Geez, we may get 5 active systems in the Atlantic if these invests become tropical cyclones at the same time Florence, Helene, and Isaac are still active. Has that ever happened before? Anyway, this is most likely going to be Joyce unless the one SW of the Azores explodes. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:32, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 60/60. We may see a TD from this, not sure about Joyce yet though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:51, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Code red again, 70/70. Race for Joyce is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:09, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

This will be Kirk if it forms, as Joyce is forming from 96L as we speak. This will likely be another TC in the crazy September of 2018. - VileMaster (talk) 20:26, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Should this system form, we will have 5 tropical cyclones active at one time in the Atlantic. Has that even happened before? Send Help Please  (talk) 20:54, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * In 1995, it did. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:25, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * True, but as Roy said, we've never see 5 named storms at once, since Luis was still a depression while the others were active. Send Help Please  (talk) 01:55, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm kinda losing hope for this invest, but it could still become a TD before reaching Texas. It doesn't really look like much on satellite atm. "Kirk" must not go to this likely fail. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Was at 70% yesterday, now this is down to 50%. May not become a depression before landfall, as convection is limited. Ryan1000 13:20, September 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * And now it's down to 30%. Doubt it'll become anything now. Ryan1000 10:13, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 10/10. What a waste of an invest. Yikes. 95L may become a flooding threat for southern Texas though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Long gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:58, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: E behind Florence
0/20. This disturbance at the south of (and within) Bermuda is expected to have some gradual development in the next few days. The Atlantic is on fire too, just like WPac and EPac. Has this happened before? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:50, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Idk, but the tropics are really going crazy atm! If this develops, it will likely be Kirk because the GOM invest doesn't have much time anymore. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:56, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 0/10. Not sure about any development from this. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:33, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * This and 95L won't develop. Kirk will have to wait. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:48, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, off the TWO. The Atlantic is starting to re-enter slumber mode. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:57, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: 1300 miles ESE of the Lesser Antilles
New AOI, currently at 10/20. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:55, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * If this develops it'll probably be another name-stealer. It only has until the weekend to get its act together. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Upped to 20/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:35, September 19, 2018 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Now an invest. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:43, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, but Kirk (and maybe Leslie) may come from one of the other three systems being monitored by NHC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:52, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Weirdly, this is still on the TWO. Remains at 10/10. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:58, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Scratch what I said above. This suddenly jumped to 40/40. If all of these disturbances develop, we may even get to Nadine before this month ends. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:10, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 60/60, and the NHC expects a TD tonight or tomorrow before shear and dry air kicks in. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     00:06, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven
"NHC will initiate advisories at 11 PM AST on Tropical Depression Eleven, located about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands." This one may win the race to Kirk. Send Help Please (talk) 02:15, September 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now officially on the TWO, and only expected to remain as a depression due to shear and dry air. Well, looks this year will have an unnamed depression like the previous years. Let's hope it doesn't steal the neame Kirk.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:19, September 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * I'm very surprised this somehow developed but it's not going to become named anymore. It should die out very soon, probably in the next day or so. At least it isn't gonna steal a name! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Eleven
And it's gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:46, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Azores
And another non-tropical system may form. 0/20 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:02, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/40 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:02, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Increased to 0/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:52, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/60 now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:30, September 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0/70, but still not yet an invest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:08, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

It's not every day we see such a stark contrast between 2 and 5 day development. If this becomes (sub)tropical storm Kirk, it would be the 4th storm this year to form in the far north Atlantic. That's not something that happens very often. Ryan1000 12:46, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/70. This AOI and 99L are competing for Kirk. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:57, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/70. This is getting exciting... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:16, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/70, and still not invested. Say, when was the last time a season had six subtropical storms?  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:07, September 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * 60/70 but still not an invest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:02, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Finally been invested I think... 90L is up in this region on Tropical Tidbits. Now 60/60, but forecasted to be taken by a cold front by mid-week. This'll probably be a short-lived subtropical failure stealing the name "Leslie". I don't think there's EVER been a season with 6 subtropical storms. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:06, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Leslie
And here we have Debbie 4.0. 40 mph/1002 mb as of now. Send Help Please (talk) 08:10, August 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Leslie just made 2018 become the only season on record to have six subtropical storms. Also supposed to be short-lived, probably because of the nearby AOI.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:31, September 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * BRUH WE TIME TRAVELLIN TO 2002 -grabs flip phone and puts on britney- --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 22:01, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Leslie
Now on the verge of post-tropical transition. A complex transition is expected - baroclinic forcing will intensify the remnants to near-hurricane strength before it is expected to transition back into a subtropical storm, and hopefully it will become more significant in its second life. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:03, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Leslie
Probably Leslie's first post-tropical cyclone transition, as the 0/70 AOI is expected to merge with Leslie. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm kinda wondering if the 0/70 AOI is Leslie. Expected to transition back into a subtropical cyclone a few days from now, by which time it is forecast to be near the upper bound of TS strength. Would be interesting to see Leslie come back as a fully tropical hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/70 is Leslie.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:52, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 40/90 now. Once Leslie regenerates she will be the 3rd storm to achieve that feat this year (after Beryl and Kirk). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:02, September 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * 90/90, and with hurricane-force winds. Expected to transition back to a (sub)tropical storm within the next 36 hours or so. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:35, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Leslie (2nd time)
Officially regenerated, and now forecast to move south while remaining as a storm with TS-winds. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:02, September 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Due to Leslie's abnormally large windfield, Bermuda could see TS force winds even if Leslie remains a far distance away. Also, the U.S. eastern seaboard needs to watch out, as Leslie could produce rip currents that could be life-threatening to surfers. Ryan1000 22:19, September 28, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging off the coast of Africa V
One of the four disturbances that are currently being observed by the NHC in the TWO. 0/20 at the moment. (Revised the title as it is actually the 5th African AOI this season, after Florence, Helene, Isaac (though labelled as 'SE behind Florence') and an AOI that did not form.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:50, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Invested and up to 10/40. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     02:29, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/50 now. We may see another Cape Verde hurricane from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:09, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

20/60. This is expected to go west down the road and may become another threat to the Antilles, but it may be bigger than Isaac and Beryl were, so this one bears close watching. If the 0/70 Azores AOI becomes Kirk, then this'll become Leslie down the road. Ryan1000 12:42, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 30/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:12, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 40/60. Wow these AOIs keeps going up, is this the second "Atlantic bomb"?  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:08, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

There's currently strong shear near the Antilles and Caribbean, which is expected to prevent TD 11 from becoming a named storm, and unless the shear abates when this AOI reaches the area, then this may not survive as well down the road...not to bustcast, but after the damage we saw in North Carolina from Florence, I'm hoping this doesn't become a threat down the road, although some islands in the Lesser Antilles could use some rainfall. Ryan1000 06:37, September 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/80. NHC may issue advisories for this one later today if 99L continues to organize. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:58, September 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kirk
"NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM AST on Tropical Storm Kirk, located well south of the Cabo Verde Islands." 40 mph, 1005 mbars as of the first advisory. Ryan1000 14:38, September 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * This looks like it'll be a re-Isaac for now. Forecasted to gradually strengthen and peak at 60 mph, although it'll probably get stronger. After that here comes weakening as it crosses into the Windwards and enters the eastern Caribbean graveyard. Don't disappoint us Kirk but don't eventually threaten land as a powerful monster either. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧
 * kirk finna be M O I S T and bring MOISTURE to the 'bean --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 22:00, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kirk
That was fast... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:21, September 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Forecast to reintensify into a TS later on, but Kirk's rapid movement and the fact shear will increase near the Antilles aren't doing him any favors right now. Ryan1000 09:15, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Kirk
Kirk no longer has a closed circulation, but winds increased to 40 mph in the final advisory. What a fail though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

Well, that was fast. Honestly though, I’m more disappointed with the fact that the NHC didn’t say “Kirk won’t live long and prosper” like they did in 2012, than I am with the fact that this storm died so quickly. This Kirk gave the NHC the perfect opportunity to say it again, but they didn’t. :P Leeboy100 Hello!. 15:10, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

Right you are. Kirk was basically 2018's Joyce 2012. Hopefully we get a stronger storm in October or so to help our numbers.  PORY GONAL  16:57, September 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * To shed a little positivity: Kirk may have been an epic failure in terms of strength (at least so far... it could regenerate down the line, and its remnants have debuted on the TWO at 50/50), but its formation at 8.3N was the most southerly for an Atlantic TS since the third storm of 1902, a time span of 116 years! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:00, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

I'm not thinking that's likely, shear in the eastern Caribbean is extremely dangerous for this storm to try to redevelop and it's expected to tear this storm apart when it reaches the Lessers. If it somehow survives that and makes it to the western Caribbean, that's another story, but for now...I don't think Kirk is coming back. Ryan1000 20:39, September 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * This system still has potential to re-develop within a short window. However, this is looking like not much more than an epic failure and a major disappointment after the initial forecast peak of 60 mph. I doubt this will survive to the western Caribbean to be honest. Kirk really didn't live long and prosper this time around. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:08, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 60/60 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:49, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

70/70 now. ~ Rebecca

Why do I get the sinking feeling this is going to pull a Harvey? Beatissima (talk) 04:20, September 26, 2018 (UTC) Rebecca

Tropical Storm Kirk (2nd time)
He's back! Not bad, all things considered. However, Kirk's 2nd life will be short-lived, as strong shear in the central caribbean will probably kill him for good in a few days. Ryan1000 12:54, September 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Kirk's up to 50 mph. Maybe it'll hit its forecast peak after all.  PORY GONAL  17:03, September 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Indeed it did. Kirk peaked at 50 kts/998 mbar late Wednesday. It went back down to 45 kts shortly afterward, though, and has remained there since. Pressure has since risen to 1007 mbar according to the new intermediate advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:37, September 28, 2018 (UTC)

Kirk will dissipate very soon, as he's being ripped apart for good by the great Caribbean shear. But it was nice to see him come back while he could. Ryan1000 22:19, September 28, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Kirk (2nd time)
Kirk has been ripped apart for good. See you in 6 years, Kirk. Ryan1000 03:01, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: 150 miles North of Bermuda (East of NC)
Yet another AOI. 10/20 for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:50, September 20, 2018 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Oh, it is actually invested now. Forecast to do a loop and stay as a fishspinner. 98L actually looks like a TD on Tropical Tidbits now. Anyway, models show that this may peak as a strong TS or even a Category 1, but it is still too early to tell. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:55, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:54, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Update: increased to 0/30. The Atlantic is waking up again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:11, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/30.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:09, September 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * 20/30 but the environment isn't particularly favorable. There's dry air and upper-level winds around it, but the upper-level winds will take a break for the next couple days before intensifying again. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:01, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/40. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:21, September 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 50/50, but it'll probably be like a re-TD 11 if it somehow develops. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:16, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 20/20. Won't be anything at this point. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, September 26, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: West of the Azores, NE of 90L
Another AOI in the region that gave us 5 storms so far. 0/30 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:43, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's insane we are getting all these systems developing subtropical characteristics in that region of the Atlantic. If this and the other AOI develop, the subtropical count is up to 7. Must be a record at this point... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:47, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

Leslie is expected to merge with this low and this low and Leslie combined may develop, 0/50 for now, but another 50% AOI near the eastern seaboard might develop too. Ryan1000 20:42, September 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * If they both develop into (sub)tropical storms by the end of the day UTC September 30, we'll have 9 storms for September (unless post-analysis determines Florence to have become a TS on August 31). That would be a new record for any month in the Atlantic basin, breaking a 5-way tie of 8 storms between October 1950, September 2002, August 2004, September 2010, and August 2012. I hope they both develop for that reason (provided impacts to land, if any, are minor), even if neither resulting TS reaches hurricane strength. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:01, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

6-way tie. September 2007 also had 8 storms, if you count Felix since he formed as a depression at the end of August but intensified into a TS at the start of September. But that would be cool to see, also if this storm develops into Michael (or Nadine), it would give this season 4 named storms forming in the Northeastern Atlantic in one season (specifically, north of 30N and east of 50W). That would also be a record. Ryan1000 00:19, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ahhh thank you Ryan, I forgot about September 2007! Yes I do count Felix as a September storm for 2007, just like how I count Florence as a September storm for this year. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:48, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

The TWO now exclusively mentions Leslie's re-development. Instead of a brand new subtropical system, this should be part of Leslie. But it's crazy how active this September is. Any new posts about this system should probably go into Leslie's section from now on. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:14, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, this will merge with Leslie instead of developing into a different storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:48, September 25, 2018 (UTC)