Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We have one for the EPac, so why not the Atlantic? Betting pools are here. I'll make my worldwide calls later on. Ryan1000 21:20, November 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * I really want more from this upcoming season; 2014 was a good start. I predict...18 total depressions, 16 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, all with an ACE of ~194 units. Also, I want this season to be dead quiet at first before becoming a nightmare season. See more information here... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, November 28, 2014 (UTC)

It's ALMOST THE NEW YEAR!!!! :D well, it is in Australia.... rarity is worst pony 19:21, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

AOI: East of Windwards
This looks semi-promising. This new AOI has showed up at 0/20 on the five day outlook (and only the five day outlook), and says that some slow development is possible early next week. It would be cool to have another storm in the Atlantic this year. (As long as it's not too weak, I'm looking at you Hanna the name stealer) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:29, November 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * A new tropical wave has popped up on the TWD, extending from 18N57W to 09N58W and moving west at 15 knots. An associated 0/30 AOI has popped up on the TWO along the tropical wave, so we could see something in the long run when it moves near and beyond Puerto Rico. Maybe Kate is possible after all! Steve820 Talk to me 01:37, November 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * 20/40 some models are developing this into a td. It might become later on. It would be surprising that a ts develop in November and not October. I dont count Joaquin as he form in September. Anyhow if Kate forms this will be one of the latest El Niño years to end, as most end in Sept or Oct.Allanjeffs 07:07, November 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's up to 20/50 now. This seems likely to be Kate, and that would be neat to have a November Atlantic storm in an El Nino year! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:18, November 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's up to 50/70 now, and we could see Kate pretty soon! However, looks like it's going to meet that cold front that ate up the other invest in a few days, so it better continue to organize while it has time. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:29, November 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * It looks set to become Kate soon. It would be great to have a November storm this year! I am betting on a formation by tomorrow or Tuesday, and it might be a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane at its peak strength. Steve820 Talk to me 16:57, November 8, 2015 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
I don't know when this was invested, but on wunderground it's shown as an invest. The chance of development has gone up to 70/70, and it's looking pretty well organized. It could be a tropical depression 3 hours from now depending on what the aircraft mission set to arrive there finds. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:04, November 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Since this'll form in November, it should be put in this section. Anyways, it probably will become Kate, but it won't get that strong if it does so, and it'll turn away before hitting the U.S. east coast. I also merged this one and the "AOI.North of Hispaniola" posted below this, they're the same system. Ryan1000 18:39, November 8, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve
Here. Forecast to become Kate for a short time as it heads northwest, then northeast out to sea. Unfortunately, this'll probably be a name-stealing fail...Ryan1000 03:54, November 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Actually, this is supposed to affect the Bahamas, so it's not a complete fail. And honestly, I'm happy with almost any named storm in November. However, it would be nice to see Kate reach at least 60 mph and not join the huge tie for weakest storm. Looks like the Atlantic hurricane season wasn't quite done yet, and hopefully Kate has some tricks in store that do not involve death and destruction! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:05, November 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's too small and weak to noticeably impact the Bahamas, though I will give Kate-to be some credit if she becomes a hurricane on her way out to sea, like Shary of 2010 did. Though that's not too likely. Ryan1000 04:14, November 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Here comes Kate (hopefully)! Looks like if Kate is named we'll end this season with that name, just like 1985. Not bad! Owen 04:15, November 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * In an El Niño year after all. If it becomes Kate it will make it one of the Latest El Niño year to end because most end in Sept or Oct. Anyways imo she will become 65 to 75 as she is small and may strength fast. Allanjeffs 04:44, November 9, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kate
Recon found TS force winds, so special statement upgrades the depression to TS Kate. It would be cool if Kate can become a hurricane, but it needs more convection first. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:40, November 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Kate better get on with it if she wants to become a hurricane, the front is closing in fast. It would be pretty cool if it does become a 1, but it won't get past that. Ryan1000 16:56, November 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * The front has actually become a warm front and begun to move AWAY from Kate, so Kate still has time. Kate's been looking increasingly organized, and the NOAA aircraft found 50 mph winds, although with an abnormally high 1007 mb pressure. The good news is that the Bahamas were spared from the worst of the storm as the TS force winds were only to the north and east sections of the storm, and now Kate can intensify as much as it wants - by the time Kate would have reached Bermuda it will be absorbed. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:07, November 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * This surprised me, I didn't expect anymore activity out of the Atlantic. Okay then, go on Kate, intensify before your absorbed.  leeboy100 My Talk! 00:10, November 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50 kts/1005 mbar. Five-way tie for weakest storm of the season avoided, thank goodness. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:42, November 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * With its intensification to 60 mph/50 knots, it might even have a slight shot at hurricane strength before it is absorbed. It would surely be nice and fantastic to see a November hurricane this year. Give it your all, Kate, before you're absorbed on Wednesday! Steve820 Talk to me 06:00, November 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Although Kate has not intensified more yet, the new forecast makes Kate a hurricane, along with Kate absorbing the extratropical system and lasting five days, although extratropical after two. Looks like the tables have turned! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:44, November 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * 60 kts/999 mbar! One more inch, and we have our fourth hurricane of the season! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:09, November 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * If it can clear out even a faint eye, then it's set. The pressure's still kind of high, but the fact that it's falling is a good sign it will continue to strengthen. A November hurricane would be a great way to end for the Atlantic in an El Nino year! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:13, November 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Come on, Kate. 70 mph 999 millibars.  leeboy100 My Talk! 22:22, November 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still not a hurricane, but NHC says it's reeeaaaallllly close. From the latest discussion: "the area of cloud tops has expanded and cooled within the past few hours. ... Although flight-level winds and 0000 UTC Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 65 kt, dropwindsonde and SFMR data indicate that the winds aloft are not efficiently mixing down to the surface and the initial intensity remains 60 kt." Come on, Kate!!!! You got this, girl! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:54, November 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Pressure has fallen.............by 1 millibar. It's now down to 998 and still at 70 mph. Also, I thought this thing was going to be absorbed..........     leeboy100 My Talk! 04:53, November 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Kate is rocketing northeast at 35 mph, it better become a hurricane fast before it gets absorbed by that front or before SST's cool below the threshold for a hurricane. It's still not too late for Kate to become a hurricane, but it better do so later today if it wants to at all. Ryan1000 05:09, November 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * The NHC forecast actually not shows it being absorbed anymore, but instead Kate will become extratropical on Thursday and its extratropical remnants are forecast to rocket to the northeast and approach Europe. I guess it won't be absorbed... And I am really hoping for another hurricane here, come on girl! You've got this! The NHC forecast also makes it a hurricane. I'd say it'll peak at approximately 75-80 mph, so it should become a hurricane. I'd be slightly surprised if it doesn't become one. Steve820 Talk to me 05:15, November 11, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Kate
It's rushing across the north Atlantic at 40 mph, it's not been a very active year, and it's a late season storm...so naturally it became a hurricane. Good show, Kate. Jake52 (talk) 10:43, November 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Not bad, not bad at all. Should go extratropical in a day or two. Ryan1000 12:22, November 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well played, Kate! It looks like it's going extratropical now though. Assuming we don't get some random weak storm, Kate ends the season nicely, and despite the El Niño, a storm existed during every month of the season, along with Ana in May. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:20, November 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yay it made it to hurricane strength! Kate should be extratropical by tonight though. It's pretty cool that we saw a November hurricane in an El Niño year. Steve820 Talk to me 20:54, November 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well done, Kate! I have to say, this season has been impressive for an El Nino year!  Leeboy100 Veteran's Day! 21:11, November 11, 2015 (UTC) (Sorry for modifying my signature so much. If it's getting on anyone's nerves, I'll stop.
 * It's not unheard of to see a late-season hurricane in El Nino years, Florence and Gordon '94 formed in November, as did Frances '86. Although, none of them hit a top speed of 44 mph, this thing is rocketing northeastward that fast, which is one of the fastest rates of TC travel I've ever seen. Ryan1000 23:07, November 11, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kate (2nd time)
NHC says that Kate has weakened, but is not extratropical just yet. Should be by the next advisory, but the fact that it's still tropical now means Kate has lasted 3 days. Pretty good considering how fast it was moving, but short-lived nonetheless. When Kate soon becomes extratropical, it might be the end of the 2015 AHS. Considering that we were thinking that Kate wouldn't happen this year, it was quite a surprise to have it form in November and become a hurricane! Nice job, Kate! Notably, Kate's pressure fell to 983 mb with this advisory, I guess related to ET transition. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:48, November 12, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kate
Our rather interesting November hurricane has come to pass. Au revoir, Kate! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:45, November 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * I thought it was interesting to see a hurricane spring up in the Atlantic in November during an El Niño year. Good riddance, Kate! P.S. I like your French. :P Steve820 Talk to me 05:55, November 13, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave 1 (November 5 - present)
I just saw that the wave is actually completely separate from the above AOI. Axis extends from Cuba to near Panama currently, and is south of the above AOI. Steve820  Talk to me 17:02, November 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's now slamming into Central America, and I'll watch for any signs in the EPac. Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 06:07, November 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * The tropical wave is now moving into the EPac while crossing Central America. Any further posts are located on the EPac forum, here. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 05:18, November 11, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave 2 (November 5 - present)
<p style="font-weight:normal;">This one is hanging around the eastern/central Atlantic, not likely to do much I'd say. Current axis is 17N34W to 06N35W, and it is west of the Cape Verdes. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820  <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 01:37, November 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's nearing the Windwards currently. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820  <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 17:03, November 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Passed the Windwards, and in the eastern Caribbean. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 06:07, November 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * In the central Caribbean - 19N74W to 10N73W <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 05:19, November 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's in the western Caribbean - 19N82W to 09N80W - and should slam into Central America soon. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 20:55, November 11, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (November 9 - present)
Another new one has appeared on the TWD, and is in the central Atlantic. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 06:07, November 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Starting to cross the Windward Islands - 14N60W to 06N60W <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 05:20, November 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * This wave is very southern, half of the axis is actually over South America, and the other half is in the eastern Caribbean - 15N65W to 05N66W. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 20:56, November 11, 2015 (UTC)

GFS Atlantic tropical storm
Look at this. Larry may be coming next week according to the GFS. The Atlantic ain't done yet! Owen 20:40, November 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hmm, interesting. Might be a weakling at most though, or it might not even develop at all. We'll see. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 20:57, November 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * It would be amazing if the Atlantic is STILL not done yet, but I doubt the GFS, it's been predicting a bunch of stoms that never happened. Honestly, I'm not expecting anything. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:24, November 12, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
While the Atlantic continues to be boring and inactive, we're already deep into the season. This means it's about time to do retirements. Some people like Dylan might complain about starting this section early, but I'm just a bit impatient and want to start this section today. So, without further ado...
 * Nah, we're late enough into the season that I'm okay with starting retirement predictions now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:55, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * I began these predictions on August 9th (my time, not UTC) though, so that's why I was worried it might have been a bit too early and you would complain. Now, it's certainly a ripe time for these predictions. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:35, August 20, 2015 (UTC)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))


 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - It was the earliest U.S. strike on record, but the damages and deaths won't earn it retirement.


 * Bill: <font color="#77B">2.5% - 7 deaths were caused throughout its path, but damage was minimal. See you in 2021!


 * Claudette: 0% - I consider it an epic fail. The only impacts were rainfall in North Carolina (pre-development) and in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland.


 * Danny: <font color="#AAC">1% - Danny was a tiny major hurricane in a somewhat southerly location, but impacts to the Lessers are just minor at best. He'll come back in 2021.


 * Erika: 65% - Just look at what it did to Dominica. We might have an Allison 2.0 here.


 * Fred: <font color="#AAC">1% - It wasn't that bad for the Cape Verdes at all, but it was a really record breaking storm as it was the easternmost hurricane in the tropical Atlantic not counting the area where Vince formed, and it also became the first hurricane to pass through the Cape Verdes since 1892. Because it wasn't that impacting, the name will almost certainly stay for 2021.


 * Grace: 0% - What a disgrace. Forgive the pun; couldn't resist.


 * Henri: 0% - No way. It failed so much, that it is very laughable.


 * Ida: 0% - Fought, but failed.


 * Joaquin: <font color="#A05">80% - One b@d@$$ storm. Epic Bahamas devastation could certainly give this storm the boot. What a naughty boy you've been, Joaquin.

Anyone else want to do theirs now? You can use my color idea if you like. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:17, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

My retirements: +<font color="#666666">0.5%
 * Ana:  0%  — Nah, a tropical storm


 * Bill y :  15%  — A severe tropical storm on a scale, well nah.

🌀 (talk) 00:01, September 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * Claudette: <font color="#666666">0.5%  — Who would retire this?
 * Danny - 0%
 * Erika - <font color="#70A">99% - OH OH OH OH OH! ERIKA YOUR GROUNDED GROUNDED GROUNDED FOR LIFE!


 * (Retirement colors:  NaN% , <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% ,  10% ,  15% ,  20% , <font color="#4A0">25% ,  30% , <font color="#CF0">35% ,  40% , <font color="#FD0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#F80">55% ,  60% ,  65% , <font color="#B00">70% ,  75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))(thanks steve)


 * :D :D odile is back!

•An n a and Elsa :  NaN%  - meh...

•Bill Clinton : <font color="#AAC">1%  - meh...

•Claudette:  NaN%  - u wot m8?

•Danny:  NaN%  - yes. just  NO .

•Erika:  65%   - destructive weakling? dang

•Fred:  NaN%  - LOL

•Grace:  NaN%  - no comment.

•Henri:  NaN%  - Henri's bae is Felicia

•Ida:  NaN%  - HAHAHAHAH LOLOLOLOOLOL

​•Joaquin: <font color="#F09">85%   - if 32 peeps missing and contributing to a massive flood event is not enough...

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:32, August 16, 2015 (UTC)

Puffle is here with more lame science stuff Retirements at a glance!!1

Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - Surprised me to see a pre-season storm, especially with an El Niño. But no, I don't wanna build a snowman.

Bill Nye : <font color="#Acc">2.7% -Sorry Billy, you're still not ready

Claudette: <font color="#AAC">0.1%  - Affected very little land, and was the worst storm ever.

Danny Phantom : <font color="#AAC">>1%  Okay Danny, I like you, but no. Just no.

Erika: <font color="#B0D">95%  - Can you find "Dominica" on the map? No? Erika did that.

Fred: <font color="#AAC">>1%  - Other than striking the Cape-Verde area, what did Fred do?

Grace: <font color="Silver">Fail%  - Clearly Grace was not amazing. What a disgrace of a storm. Have I had enough pun with puns yet?

Henri: <font color="Silver">Fail%  - And I thought Grace and Claudette sucked...Now Felicia has a boyfriend :P

<font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  00:38, August 30, 2015 (UTC)

Storm by storm, here's my calls... That's all for now. Ryan1000 11:39, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana - 2% - Minor damage and an indirect death. It was not nothing, but not enough to retire it either.
 * Bill - 17% - 100 million in damage isn't half bad, but the U.S, let alone Texas, have seen far worse than that and it's probably not getting retired.
 * Claudette - 0% - Gave me something to look at for a day. That's all.
 * Danny - 0% - It was really cool to see Danny pull off a major hurricane in the open Atlantic despite otherwise unfavorable conditions, but like Don '11, it fell flat on it's face as soon as it hit land. The Lessers suffered almost nothing from this, other than some (beneficial) rain.
 * Erika - 95% - Erika is now officially the costliest storm in Dominica's history with 374 million dollars in damage on the island, surpassing Marilyn of 1995, and the 3rd deadliest, after David and the 1834 hurricane. So yeah...Allison is getting company next spring.
 * Fred - 10% - Cape Verde got off much easier with this one than they otherwise could've.
 * Grace - 0% - This storm was just downright dis-Grace-ful (end sarcasm).
 * Henri - 0% - Post-analysis revealed that it didn't fail as much as was initially expected, but it was still a fail nonetheless.
 * Ida - 0% - Another fish, another fail.
 * Joaquin - 75% - At least 34 deaths and 60 million dollars in damage across the central Bahamas make this the worst hurricane to hit some of the central islands in many years. If the damage is as extreme as I fear it could be and the death toll goes any higher, this is a guaranteed retirement.
 * Kate - 1% - Brought some lousy weather to the Bahamas for a day or two and became a hurricane, but nothing else.

My turn :D leeboy100 My Talk! 09:14, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 1%- minimal damage, 1 indirect death, this won't be enough for retirement.
 * Bill: 5%- Caused flooding and 7 deaths, but it's not likely it will be retired
 * Claudette: -0%- At least we got some Atlantic activity.
 * Danny: -0%- An impressive storm, I wasn't <span id="cke_bm_65S" style="display:none;">       <span id="cke_bm_67S" style="display:none;">  even expecting it to become a hurricane, let alone a category 3! It didn't hit land though,
 * Erika: 75%- I know, I'm being lenient with this storm, for two reasons. One: I don't know Dominica's track record for retirement, and two: and this is the big one. There is around a 50/50 chance Erika won't be retired because of the fact that it never reached hurricane strength. Despite me bringing these up, I personally think Erika should be retired, but I won't be too surprised if it's snubbed.
 * Fred: 5%- It shocked pretty much everyone with it hitting Cape Verde, but retirement is not likely.
 * Grace: 0%- What a disgraceful storm that took a fall from grace and became a storm that was not so amazing. This was the coup-de-grace of fails. Too much puns?
 * Henri: 0%- Not in a million years........
 * Ida: 0%- Meh.
 * Joaquin: 80%- Between all the hype it caused, the damage in the Bahmas, Bermuda impacts, and the El Faro, it will most likely be retired.

P.S. If Joaquin and Erika are retired, this will be the first Atlantic season to have two retired names since 2010. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:37, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

Leeboy, Gordon '94 caused most of its deaths in the less-prepared country of Haiti, who also snubbed Hanna '08. Dominica hasn't seen a storm as bad as Erika since, reportedly, David in 1979, which killed 56 people on the island. Ryan1000 16:08, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * I know Ryan. What I was saying was that there is a possibility that either a) retirement won't be requested or b) the WMO will snub it. Although, I think it deserves retirement, and will be mad (but not surprised) if it isn't.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 21:22, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan, that $16 million figure wasn't from Dominica. It was from Puerto Rico and it's mostly crop damage. According to the Prime Minister, damage in Dominica could be "tens of millions" and that the damage will set the island's development back 20 years.

While I'm at it, might as well give mine: Those are mine! 23:08, August 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1%  (It caught the US off-guard, but that, essentially, was it. Minor damage and one indirect death don't get a storm retired.
 * Bill: <font color="#359">5%  (Brought a higher death toll, but outside of teaching everyone about the brown ocean, nothing going. Still minor damage.)
 * Claudette:  0%  (Big ball of nothing.)
 * Danny:  0%  (It scared peop'le, but merely scaring people isn't enough most of the time (see: Sonamu). Danny did nothing else.)
 * Erika: <font color="#F0F">90%  (Nearly every storm that hit Dominica went on to do worse elsewhere, so this is entirely on them to ask for retirement, but likely 50 dead, tens of millions in damage, and the country set back 20 years? If those figures hold up, Allison may be getting company. Not higher because, as I said, I'm not sure about Dominica's retirement standards. EDIT: From tens of millions to $244 million? Even leaving margin of error (it being a tropical storm, Dominica's uncertain retirement standards, the stats being off), I can't bring myself to justify less than 90% now.)

(PS: This was mine. Forgot how many is a signature. <_< Jake52 (talk) 00:07, August 30, 2015 (UTC))


 * I see, my bad on that. If Erika was bad enough to set the island back 20 years on development, it's probably getting retired. Though I'm not sure what a good analogy would be for her; Klaus flooded Martinique alone, Tomas hit St. Lucia and eventually Haiti, I don't think there's been any storm before that hit Dominica hard and didn't do much afterwards. The last time a storm was this bad for Dominica was David in '79, which also ripped apart the Dominican Republic and hit the east coast as a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:33, August 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Someone edited the Wikipedia article to say Erika caused $100 million total, but a recent report says Dominica estimates that preliminary damage to basic infrastructure on the island may be as high as $226 million. Words fail me. Jake52 (talk) 06:21, September 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't recall, but Bill did cause 100 million in damage. Not negligible, but not enough by U.S. standards. If that 272 million damage total for Dominica is correct, I could definitely see Erika joining Allison as only the second TS to ever be retired in the Atlantic. I don't think any storm has hit Dominica this bad and not caused many impacts elsewhere. It's at least the worst since David. Ryan1000 20:19, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

Here's mine: I'll update this as each of the remaining storms form. Owen 16:50, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 1% - She was the earliest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the United States, but her impacts don't merit her removal off of the list.
 * Bill: 3% - Eh, $100 million in damages isn't huge in United States standards, he'll be back in 2021.
 * Claudette: 0% - Absolutely not.
 * Danny: 1% - He managed to impress and reach C3 status before getting shredded by wind shear before causing significant effects on the Lesser Antilles.
 * Erika: 65% - I'm being slightly reluctant with her, considering there is uncertainty behind Dominica's retirement standards. However, considering she caused $482.8 million in Dominica and $511.7 million altogether really is convincing that Allison is more likely than not to get company next spring.
 * Fred: 10% - It could've been much worse in Cabo Verde. It's safe to say he'll be returning in 2021.
 * Grace: 0% - Was this a joke?
 * Henri: 0% - Henri, you take the award for the Atlantic's biggest failure of 2015.
 * Ida: 0% - She had her opportunity, but failed.
 * Joaquin: 75% - He caused a lot of damage in the Bahamas, but I'm being reluctant because the islands were sparsely populated. Either way, I think Joaquin deserves retirement but there needs to be a realization that there have been names in the past that weren't retired for weird reasons such as Karl, and Joaquin could be one of them because of the fact these islands weren't very populated.
 * Kate: 1% - There wasn't a noticeable impact in the Bahamas, expect Kate to be back.

Time for me to post mine:


 * Ana: 3% - A pre-season shock for the East Coast, but impacts were minor.
 * Bill: 13% - Not negligible, but not bad enough for retirement.
 * Claudette: 0% - Lol, no.
 * Danny: 1% - A fun-to-watch throwback to the days when the MDR actually was the Atlantic's main development region (at least intensity-wise), but Danny sh-t the bed just as it hit the Lessers, and it's coming back in 2021.
 * Erika: 55% - Historic impacts in Dominica, which have already been elaborated on by Ryan and Jake. The only reason I am giving Erika such a conservative percentage is pure cynicism; considering that TS retirements are as rare as they are (with disastrous storms such as Bret '93 and Matthew '10 getting snubbed), I cannot bring myself to expect one. While retirement damn well should happen here, I'm not certain that it actually will happen.
 * Fred: 14% - Cape Verde may have lucked out, but 7 people did die when Fred sank a fishing boat offshore Guinea-Bissau.
 * Grace: 0% - Lawl.
 * Henri: 0% - Post-analysis found that it didn't fail quite as badly as operationally believed, so good for Henri. Still a fail, though.
 * Ida: 0% - From potential to disappointment.
 * Joaquin: 65% - Damage was immense in portions of the Bahamas, and the loss of the El Faro cost over 30 lives. It could have been much worse, but the impacts merit retirement nonetheless.
 * Kate: 1% - Effects in the Bahamas were likely negligible, though it was cool to see a hurricane so late in a super El Niño season.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:47, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Raindrop's Retirements -
Many of these I didn't really track, so those are based on what everyone else said. (Retirement colors:  0% , <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% ,  10% ,  15% ,  20% , <font color="#4A0">25% ,  30% , <font color="#CF0">35% ,  40% , <font color="#FD0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#F80">55% ,  60% ,  65% , <font color="#B00">70% ,  75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA, or a storm like Katrina or Sandy) - Thanks to Steve820 for retirement colors. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:50, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">0.2%  - Minimal damage and one death has never gotten a storm retired, so it never will. No matter how early it hits.
 * Bill: <font color="#77B">1.5%  - Although it caused some damage, it's nothing worse then a normal tropical storm making landfall in the U.S.
 * Claudette:  0%  - The only thing I can say that's interesting about Claudette is how far north it was. Fail.
 * Danny: <font color="#AAC">0.1%  - It made landfall as a tropical depression and became a major hurricane, which is cool, but it didn't cause much damage, so no way it's getting retired.
 * Erika: <font color="#F80">55%  - I'm being very lenient on this one because Issac in 2012 was not retired despite doing over 30 deaths and over $2B in damages, and this did about 1/4 of that. However, the deaths weren't in Haiti this time which snubs storms, which gives it a moderate shot at retirement.
 * Fred: <font color="#359">3%  - Fred didn't manage to do much to the Cape Verde Islands thankfully, so despite it's mark in history because of where it formed, it's staying.
 * Grace:  0%  - On satellite, Grace looked anything but graceful . Actually, Grace looked decent on satellite at one point. Still, didn't hit anything. Un-grace-ful fail.
 * Post season changes: 45 kts --> 50 kts -  50%  - Grace might have reached 50 knots as it appears to have had an eye at it's peak intensity, although that was short lived.
 * 45 kts --> 55 kts -  10% 
 * Henri:  0%  - It DID form kind of far north like Claudette, but an epic fail nonetheless, and was upgraded to 50 mph in post-season analysis. Along with ET damage, Henri wasn't an extreme fail after all. Still leaving retirement chance at 0% though.
 * Ida:  0%  - It had a chance to be a hurricane, but instead got sheared away.
 * Joaquin:  15%  - 34 deaths, but only $60 million damage done as of current. I don't think Joquain has much of a chance of retirement at all with that amount. Maybe in the 1960's it would be retired though. It might have a slight shot depending on what the Bahamas count as "devestating".
 * Post season changes: 135 knots --> 140 knots -  20% -  Joaquin appeared to weaken before the aircraft reached it, so it might have been a category 5. I don't count on it though.
 * Kate:  0%  - Yay, a November storm! Not just that, it even became a category 1 hurricane. However, I doubt there was ANY damage in the Bahamas, much less major damage. It might affect Bermuda still, but I doubt it will do damage. Fun storm to see, though.

Ana: 1% Early storm but nothing more.

Bill: 1% Affect land and caused some damage but staying.

Claudette: 0% She didn´t affect land so staying

Danny:0% Our only major until now but didn´t affect lan so...

Erika: 70% Being conservative because Dominica could very well not ask for retirement,don´t know their track record, and it supposedly set back the economy for 20 years. I would also put a 70% to her because tropical storm are rarely ask to be tossed out of list. So we will see. Going to put a my final number once the NHC do her report.

Fred 1% some damage nothing more.

Grace:0% Fail.

Henri: 0% If I thought Grace was bad this was much worse.

Ida: 0% Frustrating storm to track but didn´t affect land soo I see you in 2021.

Joaquin 60% was no joke but nothing like what Bahamas have seen in worst storms. Will update once I see the NHC report.Allanjeffs 04:42, November 9, 2015 (UTC)

Allanjeffs 23:14, September 30, 2015 (UTC)

My turn! Yay!

Ana: 1% Ana did cause snow in the northwest. Let it Go, Let it Go!

Bill: 0% Even though it about killed me, nope.

Claudette: 0% Fishy Wishy!

Danny: 0% Minimal impact.

Erika: 90% Erika was the 2nd worst storm in Dominica behind David in 1979, maybe even the wrost. In Dominica, Erika killed 36 people and caused $272 million alone!

Fred: 5% Rare event, but I say no.

Grace: 0% Well, she had to be graceful.

Henri: 5% I'm not sure about this one, but it cause several deaths in the U.K.

Ida: 1% She tried and tried.

Joaquin: 99% Currently: With the deaths in the Bahamas and a possible 32 people missing? This is gonna be retired most likely.

That's it for now! <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,0,0, 0.8);">H <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,151,0, 0.8);">u <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,250,0, 0.8);">rr <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(21,250,0, 0.8);">icane <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px #00faf4">1 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(0,55,250, 0.8);">6 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,0,250, 0.8);">2

11:02, October 6, 2015 (UTC)

Post-season changes
You know it's bad when the latest storm's TCR is out, and we're not even halfway with the season.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:23, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah...with Claudette's TCR just released we may have to open the TCR section of the betting pools early again this year. We'll wait until later though. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is proof the Atlantic is once again sucking this year. That is, unless the NHC is beginning the TCR's earlier than usual each season no matter how active it is. That could be a possibility also, but for now, it's likely it is starting early because of the season being inactive. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:37, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana could be upgraded to a Cat 1 because of this vid:Tropical Storm Ana 01L (2015)canes are awesome (talk) 20:16, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

saying by this. An n a and Elsa was possibly a hurricane.<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:23, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * This may not be true, because Ana's windspeeds may not have been hurricane-force (over 74 mph), because just having an eye doesn't mean you have a hurricane. --<font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">Party? OH HELL YES!!!  19:30, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Bill's TCR is out. Degenerated into a remnant low a full two days before the WPC operationally declared it post-tropical. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:34, September 10, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Danny should be downgraded to a Cat. 2 upgraded to 120 mph. 🌀 (talk) 23:20, October 2, 2015 (UTC)

My TCRs: Weegee is awesome 20:28, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: was a STD(severe tropical depression) near NJ
 * Bill: was a TD near NJ
 * Claudette: passed into HSMC as a Severe Tropical Storm
 * and more later
 * Ana and Henri are out. Very little change (if any) with Ana, but Henri's intensity was upped to 45 kts/1003 mbar... so instead of standing alone as the season's weakest storm so far, Henri is now in a four-way tie with Claudette, Erika, and Ida. It was also found to have formed slightly earlier, and spent only 12 hours as a minimal tropical storm before strengthening to the 40-45 kt range and staying there until dissipating, so its ACE has been nearly doubled as a result. I guess it didn't out-fail Failicia after all... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:22, October 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ida is out. Pressure lowered to 1001 mbar, which reduces the four-way tie to three (which currently stands as Claudette, Erika and Henri). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:59, November 10, 2015 (UTC)

Replacement names
Since Erika and Joaquin have a chance of retirement now, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Erika and Joaquin? Here are some of my suggestions:

Erika
If I had to pick one of these, I would pick Ellie (my sister's name). Evelyn, Ella, or Elsa would be my next choices. Ryan1000 03:53, August 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Elizabeth
 * Eve
 * Ella
 * Ellen
 * Evelyn
 * Ebony
 * Eleanor/Ellie
 * Elisha
 * Elma
 * Elsa

Elsa and Ana on the same list would be hilarious XD. I choose Elsa. leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 15:54, August 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * If Elsa is its replacement, might as well call this list the "Frozen" list. XD --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:56, September 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * I just realized 'Olaf' is being used in the Pacific this year. It really is the Frozen list :D  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 01:45, September 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf and Elsa would be better for Winter storms. Anyways, Eve would probably be the replacement name for Erika. I don't wanna see Erika on naming lists anymore. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  13:44, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * My first choice is Elisabeth (spelled with an 's', as I have an old friend whose name is spelled that way). If that's too long, then I pick Eve as a second choice. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:18, September 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * I have to agree with Puffle. 🌀 are awesome🌀 21:09, September 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * I also agree with Puffle and Dylan's choices, but for the sake of Frozen, I'd much prefer Elsa being the replacement :P <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:32, September 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Erika its almost a gonner imo. it setback Dominicas progress by 20 years. If it have been Haiti the one affect I would put it at tossup because they don't ask for retirement examples Hanna 2008 and Gordon were snub by them.Allanjeffs 02:28, September 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Shush Allanjeffs. Eve is a great name. 🌀 (talk) 01:07, September 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hey, thanks for posting on my 20th B-Day. I'd say Eve or Emmy for a replacement IMO. To be honest, Erika surprised me for a weak TS. <font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog  22:15, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

For Frozen, i really want Elsa to let it go to be Erika's replacement. If not, then Eve. <span style="background-color:maroon; border-radius:8px; border-width:1px; border-style:solid; border:color:red; H; padding:0 5px; color:#AAAEAF; white-space:nowrap;"> MarcusSanchez   My Own Talk   Junior Administrator and Chat Moderator of HHW   12:33, October 8, 2015 (UTC)

Joaquin
Now let's see for Joaquin. -Spcardozo2 (talk) 12:23, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * If the damage in the Bahamas is bad enough, Joaquin will probably get retired. Some of my suggestions for replacing Joaquin are here:

I'd probably pick Jake or Jeffery from this list, with my runner-up choices being Jack, Justin, or Jacob. Ryan1000 21:21, October 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * James
 * Jacob
 * Joseph (maybe not due to Josephine, but who knows)
 * Josh(ua)
 * Jonathan
 * Justin
 * Jason
 * Jack
 * Jared
 * Jesse
 * Jeff(ery)
 * Jamie
 * Jake
 * I must say, the fact that the Atlantic has so few 'J' retirees under its belt makes for a lot of good choices for replacements! My top 5 picks are as follows:
 * Jeff (a nickname for one of my best friends [whose actual name isn't even close to Jeffrey :P])
 * James (in honor of a character from Thomas & Friends, which was my favorite show as a young child and I still hold near and dear to this day)
 * Justin (also the name of a friend of mine)
 * Julian (just really like the name, but it might be a little too close to Julia, which is on next year's list)
 * Jaime (Joaquin carried the Spanish theme over from Juan, so I wouldn't be surprised if a Spanish name is chosen to replace Joaquin)
 * Honorable mentions to Jorge, Josh, and Jacob/Jake. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:38, October 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Josias
 * Julen
 * Jaime
 * Jerrald
 * Jago

Just so you know, these are all obviously Spanish. I should underline  Spanish .<p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,0,0, 0.8);">H <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,151,0, 0.8);">u <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,250,0, 0.8);">rr <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(21,250,0, 0.8);">icane <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px #00faf4">1 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(0,55,250, 0.8);">6 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(248,0,250, 0.8);">2

20:49, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'd pick Joshua/Josh. Spcardozo2 (talk) 21:38, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Here's my picks:

Here are some more male J names: Andros 1337 (talk) 22:38, October 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Jasper
 * Jafar
 * Jayden
 * Jay
 * Jackson
 * Jamal
 * Jarvis
 * Jaylon
 * Jean-Luc
 * Jenkins
 * Hurricane Old Man Jenkins? :P <font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog  22:16, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

I should make some replacements myself:

Erika:

Top picks:


 * Elsa (For another Frozen name XD)
 * Esmeralda
 * Eve
 * Elizabeth
 * Ella

Alternative picks:
 * Eleanor
 * Esther
 * Elsie
 * Eunice
 * Evelyn

I am hoping Elsa is its replacement. It would just make the lists Frozen-filled, and then all Frozen fans would be really hyped up for the 2021 season to see the characters being used as hurricane names.

For Joaquin:

Top picks:


 * Jaden
 * Jack
 * Jason
 * Justin
 * James

Alternative picks:
 * Jeff(rey)
 * Jasper
 * Jacob
 * Josh(ua)
 * Jamal

I had some friends over my school days which had a name in the top picks, and I also knew a few people in alternative picks. There's just so many male "J" names to chose from. :P <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:49, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

xXx_JoaquinReplacementPicksByOdile_xXx

here are my picks.

names aren't needed to be spanish.
 * Jules
 * Jean (unisex)
 * Joe
 * Jim(my)
 * Jack
 * Jamie
 * Jaime
 * Jacob

--<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  rektastic Patricia  •  spam goes here ^_^  22:41, October 25, 2015 (UTC)