Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North east of the Lesser Antilles
This would be a subtropical conversion just northeast of the Lesser Antilles. A few models have been hinting at this for a few days now, but they are consistent and are starting to show a better defined system. They have this developing on November 30th, just in time for it to be not considered a post-season storm. :P Might aswell see if this is actually going to happen, but it has decent support nonetheless. Yqt1001 04:23, November 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * I saw it on the GFS model. Cyclone10 Contributions  04:26, November 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS and CMC shows this developing. Euro shows the low existing but doesn't develop it. Nogaps refuses to show anything. Yqt1001 05:32, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

It won't develop. It has a deep cold core, and by the time it gets a shallow warm core (subtropical), it'll be south-east of Newfoundland. 01F.KIEWII 18:43, November 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * How is that possible? This low is currently in the Caribbean... Yqt1001 20:12, November 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * It now has a shallow cold core, but anyway, it will not develop. It will hit Portugal next week. 01F.KIEWII 20:19, November 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * We really need one more storm so we could top to 20 Allanjeffs 20:25, November 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * We still have until December 31. 01F.KIEWII 20:36, November 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Actually, after a closer look at the models, it probably will form. 01F.KIEWII 20:47, November 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Model support for this storm is pretty amazing for this time of year tbh. I mean, I was unable to track a storm in December (I was on vacation for Omeka) so I have no clue what a December storm is like, but still: CMC, GFS, NGP and ECWMF all show this developing. The chances are pretty great actually. Yqt1001 22:13, November 28, 2011 (UTC)

Now an official AOI. 10%. 13R.KIEWII 18:04, November 29, 2011 (UTC)

It's up to 20% chance now, but I don't think this will become Tammy. I think it will just head northward and die out. At the end of today the NHC will release their final monthly summary(and seasonal summary) of the 2011 Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. I know there were a few upgrades in this season thus far, like Nate to a hurricane, and the unnamed subtropical storm in early September. After the monthly summary is out, I do think Rina has a chance of being upgraded to a cat. 3 and Sean might have briefly been a hurricane like Nate. I don't know if there will be any adjustments made to Irene, but they will likely be minor anyways, and I would probrably keep the first 8 storms of the season under hurricane strength. I do think Bret and Arlene will be adjusted to have peaked at 70 mph storms, but I don't expect either storm to be upgraded to a hurricane. Arlene was too close to land at that time to be a hurricane IMO like Gabrielle in 1995 and Bret was weakening when he got that eyelike feature on sattelite imagery. Ryan1000 11:19, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now is invest 90 but i am sure if this is going to form


 * This season deserves a storm in December! Gooo 90L! But at this point, it seems incredibly likely that we will get our first TWO of December on the first day. :) Yqt1001 13:10, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * It won't do much other than exist. The train of failures is likely going to end with this last storm. It may become Tammy, but it will only briefly reach TS strength and head out to sea. If that happens, then we have 20 named storms, but nothing else after this. This year was not quite as bad as last year was, but it was still a bad one overall. Ryan1000 14:34, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Final TWO of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season issued...90L remains at 20%. Yqt1001 23:50, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 20%. Cyclone10 Contributions  13:10, December 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down and out. I think that should cap off the 2011 season. Ryan1000 14:45, December 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yep, NHC sees no need to issue a Special TWO for this. Season is likely over now. Though we will likely get an invest this December... Yqt1001 20:39, December 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's gone now. Cyclone10 Contributions  23:25, December 2, 2011 (UTC)

Well 90L is starting to move southwardly back to the zone where subtropical storms can develop and it's convection is starting to increase. Yqt1001 18:21, December 5, 2011 (UTC)

Gone.   Cyclone10   Talk    Contribs    Hurricane    00:06,12/10/2011

AOI: Central Atlantic
Again, this is a extratropical low that the models have developing in a few days. We'll see, but otherwise this low shows no signs of being frontal and might have a higher chance than 90L and 99L. Yqt1001 18:26, December 3, 2011 (UTC)

I saw it on the GFS model too. Cyclone10 Contributions  20:29, December 3, 2011 (UTC)

Gone.   Cyclone10   Talk    Contribs    Hurricane    00:06,12/10/2011

Farewell
It wouldn't hurt to start this section now. So this year we have: And our ACE is barely above normal. Any thoughts? Cyclone10 Contributions  21:16, November 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20 depressions
 * 19 storms
 * 7 hurricanes
 * 3 major hurricanes

I do not prefer to use overall ACE as an indicator for the activity for some seasons, and in the case of 2011, ACE/storm is a beter indicator of the activity. An overall ACE of 120 or so(not pending post-season changes), sounds good, but for a season with 19 named storms(tied for the third most active year ever), it isn't very good at all. The ACE/storm this year was a measly 6.3. Even 2006 had a higher ACE/storm than this year and it was a strong El Nino too. The big difference between 2011 and other seasons like 2010 or 1995/1996, is there were just too many failures this year. There were 12 named storms that didn't become hurricanes in this season, which is, as far as i'm concerned, only second to 2005 as the highest ever in an Atlantic season. We had no hurricanes out of the first 8 named storms in the season, which is a record. Had Nate not been upgraded to a hurricane, we would not only tie 2005's record of 13 named storms not becoming hurricanes, but we would have had the first year since 2006 to not have a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, and the first since 2001 to not do it in an El Nino season. 2011 was basically a season of missed opportunities if you ask me. Almost everything that happened in ATL this year(except for the fishies like Franklin and Cindy) could have turned out much worse than it did. It was also a season of missed forecasts as well; we had close to the number of named storms forecast, if not slightly above it, but we had fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes than originally forecasted by NOAA/CSU in the Atlantic, but much more than expected(though not exactly unexpected) in EPac. The ACE in ATL and EPac was pretty much the same in the end though. However, as we look back on this season in the next 10-20 years, I just hope we all remember Irene. Just that one storm. That's all you need to make a season memorable. Ryan1000 23:00, November 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * We only had 2 hurricane landfalls this year, which is just as amazing itself (Irene, Maria) and barely a major hurricane landfall (Irene technically blew over the Bahamas, but it was more of a direct hit than a landfall). All in all, this year could've been way worse, especially considering the tracks of some of the storms (Arlene, Harvey, Rina, Lee, Don, Nate, Emily and many others all took tracks which could've been horrible for many nations had the conditions been favourable for additional development). Yqt1001 01:27, November 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene didn't make a direct hit over the Bahamas; it did make landfall on some of the islands as a 120 mph major hurricane, but it didn't hit every one of the islands as a MH, so I consider it a major hurricane landfall, but over only a few specific islands, not every one. I mentioned earlier no hurricane season with this many named storms has had so few landfalling hurricanes, and like Ophelia, Maria was rapidly losing tropical characteristics when it did make landfall in Newfoundland so it could be disputed if it even qualified(though NHC says it did hit as a hurricane). If you consider Maria a non-tropical cyclone with hurricane force winds when it hit Newfoundland, then Irene was the only landfalling hurricane in this entire season. 1990 was a close runner-up with 14 named storms and one landfalling hurricane(Diana), and that's only if you exclude Bertha, which was a borderline landfalling hurricane/TS in Nova Scotia, and Klaus, which brushed by the upper Leeward Islands in early October(and still became retired). Although Irene wasn't everything it was expected to be, it was still bad enough to make this season memorable for a long time to come. Ryan1000 12:50, November 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Even though we were the third-most active season ever, 2011 did not have the impact I feared. Besides Irene (and to a lesser extent, Lee), despite being active, it had so few hurricanes for a season this active and impact. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 13:34, November 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * for me 7 is not a bad number of hurricane it could have done better? yes but for me is not that bad but i have a bad feeling that 2012 will not be a year to some countries this coming yearAllanjeffs 17:03, November 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, of course it's slightly above the long-term average of 6, so it doesn't exactly suck, but every other season with 19 named storms has had at least 11 hurricanes, not 7. It could have been more, but it didn't suck either. The 8 storm streak without hurricanes was surprising at the start of the season, and if we didn't have so many failures this year, the ACE and impact statistics would have been much higher. I don't know about 2012; Darren said he is expecting La Nina in 2012, though I said earlier we could have El Nino, and that certainly is possible. However, I can't exactly say what we will have coming our way. What I think will happen in 2012 is we will have a la nina at the start, and turn off to neutral in the heart to the end of the season. I don't know if El Nino will come though. I'll make a blog post later. I think I was more or less close in this year's blog post though, just a little behind in EPac and a little too far in Atlantic. Ryan1000 22:59, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

Well the season is going to be over in roughly 2 hours, so might as well say goodbye to this season even though 90L may develop. I must admit, this year was even more lucky than last year. Similar storm numbers, as always because of the record SSTs both years but 2011 had tracks that could've affected more land and killed and destroyed way more things than it did. Now of course, this year likely will have more damage than 2010, but the deaths will be less and that is what is more important to me. But really, there was less intensification of the storms this year, but more deadly tracks. Arlene, Don, Emily, Harvey, Irene, Lee, Maria, Nate and Rina could have all been a different story had the great Texas drought not killed off all of them (but Irene and Maria, which died out also because of dry air or ran out of time to intensify). Had that drought not taken place, I would put bets on Lee being a major hurricane in the Gulf and same goes with Nate and Rina. All of which would've been way more damaging then they were (with Lee already being a bad disaster this year). Overall, I would say we were more lucky this year than last year. Irene was bad enough, but both Irene and Rina were expected to be huge disasters that were nearly avoided thanks to dry air (and upwelling of cold water for Rina). Ophelia could've also been a near disaster for Bermuda. Had she been 150km over farther west, she would've been very close to making a direct hit on Bermuda, as an RIing category 4 hurricane. Fabian would've been like a rainy day to them if that had actually happened! Overall, I would say that the 2011 AHS was a great year for Mexico, Canada and Bermuda, which got the bad side of 2010, and that all nations affected this year were relatively lucky. Yqt1001 21:41, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

To be honest, the only reason many people didn't think 2010 was bad was because the U.S. didn't get hit. If you go and ask the folks in Mexico, Canada, or Jamacia/St. Lucia how 2010 was, they would say it was one of their worst, if not the worst, hurricane season in their history. 2010 was certainly costlier than 2011, but hardly any of the damage caused in 2010 was from the U.S, so many didn't think it was "bad" for that reason(12 billion vs 11.6 billion). 2011 was not the "worst season ever" for hardly any places, except for a few from Irene. As a mater of fact, many people were dissapinted at the forecasts for landfalling intensities of storms this year. Irene, though being the worst storm of the season, was also, to many people, the most dissapointing storm of the season. The folks in North Carolina and New York City took everything they owned and left it behind before Irene because the forecasters were saying it was going to be a Katrina (or Ike) for North Carolina and New England, and in the end, NYC and most of North Carolina came out unscathed. There was certainly some damage from Irene in those areas, but the damage caused by the hurricane was so much less than anticipated that it frustrated people because they felt they left for no reason. In fact, as far as i'm concerned, Irene just made the eastern seaboard and New England even more complacent than where they were before. The problem with Irene not being as bad as she was feared is that, in the future, another hurricane might take a similar path but not weaken as it approaches the eastern seaboard, and the thousands of people that survived Irene will not evacuate before that next hurricane because they will expect it to either turn away or die down like Irene did. Irene just added another "excuse" to not evacuate on people's lists for hurricanes. Same thing goes with Rina. The folks in the Yucatan were vacationing down in Cancun and Cozumel from Rina and they left when she was forecast to hit as a 3 and the next thing they knew it barely hit them as a tropical storm. Also, although I agree this season could have been worse, I have to disagree with some of the statements made about storms dying in 2011. For example, I was never expecting Lee to become even a hurricane in the GOM. It was a large and disorganized storm and it had too little time to organize into a hurricane. I also expected Emily to die over Hispaniola. I never expected Emily to reach eastern Florida as a hurricane, let alone survive Hispaniola. That island is like a gas chamber for tropical storms. They get shredded apart in almost an instant when they go there. I also expected Maria to get torn up as she was passing the lesser antillies (though she didn't die, she did weaken substantially due to wind shear) and I also never expected Harvey to become a hurricane. He was about to interact with the northern tip of cabo gracias a dios when he formed. Everyone else was saying he could explode because of his size and next thing you know, as I said, interaction with northern Honduras knocked him down. I wasn't surprised about some of the failures this year, but I was baffled at the fact we had so many storms come out of frontal boundaries(Franklin, Jose, Cindy, Storm 12, to a longer extent Bret). Those storms really added on to our total number of named storms. Ryan1000 22:53, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Final TWO issued. The season is officially over everyone. Yqt1001 23:52, November 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Overall ACE was 132% of the median, but that isn't impressive considering the number of named storms. 2008 had 144% of median ACE and it was less active than this year. The EPac summary has yet to be viewed, but I expect impressive results for a season like that. Ryan1000 14:45, December 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * But even you Ryan need to admit that with all the failures this year the ACE was better than anyone in here was expectingAllanjeffs 13:00, December 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * It wasn't better than what I was expecting; it was much less than what I was expecting. Allan, my point was, if all of the failures we had this year had become long-lived major hurricanes like EPac did, we could have had an ACE similar to 1995 or 2004. ACE this year could have easily been 200+ if we didn't have as much shear this year. ACE in EPac was much higher than NOAA anticipated, while ACE in ATL was on the low end of what was initially forecasted. Ryan1000 14:43, December 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's a map of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricanes in 2011. <span style="border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex;">  Cyclone10  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #222 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#3399ff; border:1px solid #eb0; border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex;"> Talk  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#fff">  Contribs  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #ff0033 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0;">  Hurricane   <span style="border:1px solid #eb0; border-left:0; border-top-right-radius:1ex; border-bottom-right-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomright:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topright:1ex; background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#000"> 02:06,12/8/2011 381254_237996986265789_112957945436361_633108_627216175_n.jpg

Post Season Changes
It's not even close to post season yet, but during this lull in activity the NHC has been starting the TCRs already. The TCR for Cindy is out and she isn't as much of a fail as you guys thought. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down to 994mb and they said that Cindy was very close to a hurricane for nearly 8 hours and that any improvements in the eye and Cindy would've been the seasons first hurricane. So while we wait for the other TCRs, what do you guys think could be other changes? I personally think that one of the TS's (either Arlene, Gert or Harvey) will be upgraded to a hurricane and the third time Katia became a tropical storm will be a bit earlier and the upgrade back to a hurricane after that will be earlier also. Yqt1001 19:01, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * They aready finished Adrian.10Q.INVEST 19:54, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

I didn't expect that upgrade on Cindy, but it still spun fish nevertheless and sucked in ACE. We may change the face of this year with Ophelia, which is a story yet to come. Ryan1000 20:04, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I know this isn't really on topic, but did you guys still want to do the Hall of Fame thing at the end of the season. I added a bunch of info to the new forum page but everybody mysteriously lost interest, I guess because TC activity picked up. I never heard what people thought. -- SkyFury 20:24, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm ok with what you said and would still love to do it at the end of this season. I guess everyone is fine and is eagerly waiting until it starts. Yqt1001 20:49, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm actually kind of excited about it. Come November, we're going to really have to start talking about exactly what we want to do and how we want to do it. I have final exams the week of December 4, so we're probably looking at the final voting not taking place until the second or third week of December. Under the current expanded system, we're looking at voting being up to a three week affair, so, if we want to get this done by Christmas, we may want to go ahead and do the preliminary voting before the Thanksgiving holiday, given the spectre of exams for many of us come the last week of Nov/first week of Dec. Life comes first and I want a very relaxed atmosphere about this thing, so that's something I'll be thinking about come mid-October. But we've got plenty of time to think about it. -- SkyFury 06:49, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eugene is done too.10Q.INVEST 21:06, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Ok so after looking over all the microwave imagery for the TS's this year I have given each a percentage that they will be upgraded to a hurricane and why.
 * Arlene; 80% - There wasn't any microwave images for Arlene at peak strength BUT over land she had an eye better defined than Maria ever did so I would be surprised if she doesn't get upgraded.
 * Bret; 30% - He had a well defined eye at one point, but at that time he was in a weakening phase so I don't think he ever got the wind requirement for hurricane status.
 * Don; 0% - No.
 * Emily; 0% - No.
 * Franklin; 0% - No.
 * Gert; 20% - After looking at the microwave images of Gert at peak strength, she never completed more than a half of her eyewall. She probably could be upgraded to 65mph, but I doubt hurricane status.
 * Harvey; 40% - There wasn't any images of Harvey for the few hours before landfall, however the last image before landfall has Harvey with 3/4th of an eyewall, but the image of when Harvey made landfall shows very little in a form of a defined eye. Not even close to what Arlene's eye looked like over land.
 * Jose; 0% - No.
 * Lee; 0% - Never even had a defined center according to microwave imagery.
 * Nate; 0% - He had what appeared to be half an eyewall at peak intensity, but that eyewall was gone when the dry air got to him and he fell apart.

I'll post about the others when the season draws to a close. Yqt1001 20:49, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I think Irene will be upped to 125 mph and I'd keep everyone else where they are in category. Yqt, it is true Arlene got a well-defined eye, but while it was over land. Fay of 2008 also developed a clear and well-defined eye over land, but it never became upgraded to a hurricane, and I would keep every other storm of 2011 where they are, possibly some slight wind or pressure changes, but no new hurricanes or named storms. It is possible a few invests might have briefly been depressions, but I'm not calling on any post-season upgrades yet. Ryan1000 20:35, October 17, 2011 (UTC)</p
 * Well, I think it will be upgraded because the last microwave image before the one with the eye over land was nearly 9 hours before it. That microwave image also showed about 5/8 of an eyewall already formed. As you know, a lot can happen in 9 hours, so I still think it has a decent chance. Yqt1001 21:02, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure, but we'll have to wait and see. BTW, does anyone still feel like doing the hall of fame thing? Ever since Philippe and Ophelia dissipated, this forum has kind of lost it's activity, and although there is still a chance of a few more named storms, I think it's fair to say 2011 is closing up; well, the SHem will begin and NIO has one last chance this November/late October. Most of this year has passed, and any potential post-season upgrades we will have in NAtl will likely be minor anyways. Ryan1000 21:51, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Gert: 65mph, 1000mb. NHC says that Gert developed before she even was assigned a high chance of development. Yqt1001 19:26, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I don't think any of the first 8 storms became hurricanes, but I wouldn't be surprised if some of them developed sooner or later, and I think Irene's winds were a tad higher. The storm south of Newfoundland yesterday could be upgraded to a subtropical storm in post analysis, and Rina could have briefly been a C3. Ryan1000 20:15, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Beatriz is done with 90 mph.10'Q.'INVEST 04:14, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

Should we make a second section about this in the EPac forum? Ryan1000 20:03, October 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Franklin's done.10'Q.'INVEST 19:46, November 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * TD-8E in the Epac is out. Nothing to note with it, although it lasted for only 18 hours as a TC. Yqt1001 00:25, November 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don is out now. NHC has him weakened to a TD right before landfall. Yqt1001 19:05, November 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gert came out a while back, but it apparently did reach 65 mph in the TCR. However, as with notability, I think Irene probrably has the best chance of seeing post-season upgrades(or downgrades) this year. 942 mbars is awfully low for a 120 mph C3 hurricane. Id be surprised if Irene's winds aren't increased some or the pressure is down some, but other than that, I see no big changes. By the time this season's over, we could start the hall of fame elections and retirements part 2. I was surprised we got to this many named storms in 2011, but only Hurricane Irene stood out in any exceptional way. Ryan1000 01:38, November 10, 2011 (UTC)

Nate's TCR is out, upgraded to a 75 mph hurricane. 01F.KIEWII 19:21, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Woah! !!! Not expecting that. He never had any common characteristics of a hurricane (other than unconfirmed wind speed), but there you are. TCR also says that Nate's downfall was because of upwelling and not because of the extreme dry air to his north. Yqt1001 20:03, November 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * So if Nate was upgrade to a hurricane i cannot see why Sean and Arlene could not be upgrade even if is not probable because Nate peake at 70 supposedly before they change him to 75 and Arlene ans Sean peak at 65 so it would be a 10mph jump that I don´t think the NHC would do they typically just do 5mph change, never i have see more than that Allanjeffs 20:43, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nate kinda reminds of Cindy (the 2005 one) in a way that both were operationally thought to be 70 mph tropical storms, then were retroactively upgraded to weak, 75 mph hurricanes. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 21:34, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC made a huge change in Adrian (2005) from his initial landfall. He was origionally thought to be a hurricane when he hit the Pacific coast of Honduras, but he only hit as a measly TD. I wasn't quite expecting Nate's upgrade, but Sean and Arlene have a chance too. If I could only upgrade one of those two, it would be Sean. Sean just didn't quite meet the windspeed requirement, but it certainly could have been briefly, like Nate. I still don't know about Arlene though. And you said he had a 0% chance of being upgraded in post-season Yqt. Nate just made you eat your words. >:) Ryan1000 21:49, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, that's the fun in meteorology, Ryan, full of surprises. :P I wouldn't want the climate to be any other way actually! Yqt1001 22:07, November 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * This season is just full of surpises.!!!!Amazing!!!!Allanjeffs 22:23, November 17, 2011 (UTC)

The NHC have taken down Nate's TCR. 01F.KIEWII 13:35, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

Off Topic now kate of 1985 is the latest hurricane o make landfall in the USA Allanjeffs 22:08, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I thought the 1925 Florida Hurricane was the latest... November 30 vs November 21. I also think Sean will be upgraded post-season, either to a 70 mph storm or a hurricane like Nate. Ryan1000 06:10, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I think 994 millibars for a hurricane is really weak. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  16:40, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It was Ryan but in analysis find that it was just a TS and not a hurricane at landfallAllanjeffs 20:07, November 20, 2011 (UTC)

Ah, then the best track is wrong; it was originally thought to be a 100 mph C2, but was still a 65 knot storm when it struck southern Florida according to this. In that case, Kate was the latest, I guess. Ryan1000 05:23, November 21, 2011 (UTC)

The NHC has confirmed an extra storm formed during early September. This makes 19 tropical storms. 01F.KIEWII 01:53, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

Source please? Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:00, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

here and here 01F.KIEWII 02:03, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * So we are now tied with 2010. Impressive! Yqt1001 02:11, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

NOW I know! It's 96L.INVEST. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:10, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

It was 94L.INVEST, look here. 01F.KIEWII 02:18, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

The National Hurricane Center said this today: As part of its routine post-season review, the National Hurricane Center   occasionally identifies a previously undesignated tropical or subtropical cyclone. The NHC re-analysis of 2011 has concluded that a short-lived low that  passed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia from 31 August to 3 September briefly had sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical storm. With this addition, the total numbers of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for 2011 (so far) are 19, 7, and 3, respectively. A complete report on this system is in preparation and should be available on the NHC web page by 30 November. 01F.KIEWII 15:57, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

...on Facebook. Cyclone10 Contributions  17:41, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * As part of it's post season review, the NHC has decided not to upgrade 93L in October claiming that it was not a TC or STC but "something else". Yqt1001 20:06, November 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * And in the European Windstorm reanalysis, there was a tropical storm named Xander. So, 2 TCs in 1 year, wow.. .Never mind, that was in 2003. Cyclone10 Contributions  22:38, November 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Haha, :P 01F.KIEWII 22:45, November 27, 2011 (UTC)

NHC are releasing a statement on 94L tomorrow. 01F.KIEWII 01:31, November 28, 2011 (UTC)

Here we are! of the unnamed tropical storm from NOAA. 01F.KIEWII 18:39, November 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Harvey is up, 5mph increase of winds to 65mph. Harvey also lasted quite a bit longer than previously thought. Yqt1001 20:14, December 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * TCR for the Unnamed tropical storm is up, winds of 45 mph. The NHC had prepared advisories for it, but withdrew them when convection decreased. 13R.KIEWII 21:07, December 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * I finally got the...courage (we'll go with that) to look at Harvey's TCR. He did indeed become a TS in the BoC. Yqt1001 13:41, December 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene is out. No changes made. Well, I was pretty wrong here. :P Looks like Irene really was the seasons first hurricane (unless Bret gets upgraded). Yqt1001 21:59, December 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't see any storm before Irene getting upgraded to a hurricane. <span style="background-color:white; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #ff0033 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); border:1px solid #eb0; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; border-top-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; border-right:0;"><span style="border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex;">  Cyclone10  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #222 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#3399ff; border:1px solid #eb0; border-top-left-radius:1ex; border-bottom-left-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomleft:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topleft:1ex;"> Talk  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#fff">  Contribs  <span style="background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #ff0033 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#fff; border:1px solid #eb0;">  Hurricane   <span style="border:1px solid #eb0; border-left:0; border-top-right-radius:1ex; border-bottom-right-radius:1ex; -moz-border-radius-bottomright:1ex; -moz-border-radius-topright:1ex; background-color:#000; background-image:-moz-linear-gradient(top, #444 35%, #000 65%); background-image:-webkit-gradient(linear, 0% 0%, 0% 100%, color-stop(35%, #00faf4), color-stop(65%, #ffff99)); color:#000"> 00:06,12/8/2011

Ophelia's TCR is out. Nothing really changed with her. Yqt1001 20:54, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

Bret TCR is out winds are raised to 60 kt and ace is increase to 3.2775 so it means that with Bret not becoming a hurricane the most probable thing is that Irene was the firstAllanjeffs 20:25, December 13, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yeah, with that being said, this season was the first season ever to have the first 8 storms not become hurricanes. I highly doubt Franklin and Don were briefly hurricanes, and chances are Gert and Emily won't be upgraded either. Ryan1000 18:56, December 13, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Ryan Don, Franklin,and Gert reports are already out we are just missing Emily from the first 8 of the season Allanjeffs 20:28, December 13, 2011 (UTC)

NHC doesn't always make all of the changes with the TCR Allan. Sometimes, storms may be upgraded to new categories long after their TCR's came out. Hurricane Andrew from 1992, for example, wasn't upgraded to a C5 at it's landfall in Florida with its TCR. It took ten years before NHC upgraded it to a C5 on its Florida landfall in 2002. However, in the case of short-lived storms like the first 8 of 2011, there is a good chance they may be left where they are. I personally think Bret had briefly been a hurricane, but NHC didn't make the upgrade. The only other storm this year that may become upgraded is Sean, but i'm not too convinced about him. I think he was like Omeka or Grace (2009). He displayed an eyelike feature, but never got the wind requirements to be a hurricane. Ryan1000 00:11, December 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Lee is out. He actually transitioned into a subtropical storm once he reached peak intensity of 60mph. Current damage estimates remain to be unknown, but they are over 1bill. "According to the Property Claim Services of the Insurance Services Office, Inc., Lee produced an estimated $315 million in insured losses in the United States. Damage estimates have not been yet been obtained for individual states and it is likely that this figure includes damage from tornadoes after Lee became an extratropical cyclone. Media reports indicate the flooding from the remnants of Lee produced more than one billion dollars in damage in the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast United States." Yqt1001 21:58, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is what they said on Facebook:

NHC has completed its Tropical Cyclone Report for Tropical Storm (and Subtropical Storm) Lee. Read all about it at the attached link. And stay tuned, because a highly anticipated report (by TCR standards, anyway) gets released tomorrow.


 * Can't wait. Cyclone10 Contributions  23:57, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene is out. Its peak pressure wasn't at the peak strength, weird. It will remain a Cat. 3. Cyclone10 Contributions  21:13, December 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Best thing to note is that her time at MH strength was shortened considerably, now she was only a MH for 2 advisories instead of 6 (I think). ACE is dropping pretty quickly now that Irene and Lee have lost a lot of ACE. Yqt1001 21:27, December 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jose should be next. I found this on NHC's Facebook page:

Jose is probably the closest to being ready. Don't think we'll see any of the others until after the holidays. Cyclone10 Contributions  21:36, December 16, 2011 (UTC)

So Irene really became a hurricane at Puerto Rico that is incredible it also make 8 to 9 landfall for what i read and it make landfall at new jersey at 60knots not 65 so it wasa tropical storm and not a hurricane as first thought base on the death and damage Irene will probalby be retireAllanjeffs 22:29, December 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I never expected the best track to be downgraded so much as to where it was only briefly a major hurricane, but yeah, although it wasn't everything we were fearing, it was bad enough for retirement. We'll see about that though. I think Maria or Philippe will probrably be one of the last ones to be issued. Ryan1000 15:43, December 17, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">You spoke too soon, Ryan. Philippe is out with 80 knots.-- Cyclone10 21:51, January 3, 2012 (UTC)

I thought Philippe would take a while because he lasted so long, but oh well. And Maria? I think she'll come out later. I think our next TCR will be Katia, TD 10, or Jose. After that, most likely Rina or Emily, possibly Sean and Maria after that(at least I think that will happen). Ryan1000 13:35, January 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Jose is out, he actually was a TS for a while, and actually looked pretty decent at one point. Also interesting to note that Philippe was upgraded to a hurricane that night when he developed and eye but did not have sufficient convection to get the Dvorak T numbers. Yqt1001 20:25, January 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * TD 10 is also out, but not upgraded to a TS or anything... That leaves Emily, Katia, Maria, Rina, and Sean. Ryan1000 20:35, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

Replacement names, part 2
This section has not been discussed in a while. Ever since Irene, we have Lee (I don't know if he'll go though).

Here are my revised replacement names:

Lee - Lance, Laurence, Len, Leonard, Li, Lincoln (IDK about this), Louis, Luke

Irene - IIsa, Isa, Izzy, Ivy, Iva, Iman, Iphegenia, Ivana, Ixchel

Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:39, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">If the destruction in Dominica was severe enough for Ophelia, it could be retired, but the thing is, Dominica is much different from Martinique/Guadeloupe in terms of their track record(because it's not a French territory, but rather it's own nation), so it probrably won't be a Klaus, not to mention it was largely a remnant low when it did affect the lesser antillies anyway. Ryan1000 01:59, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">More Male L names:

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Luigi, Leonardo, Linguini, Luciano, Lino, Luca, Lucas, Leandro, Lionel, Leon, Leroy, Ludwig, Lambert. Andros 1337 20:34, November 11, 2011 (UTC)

Now that the season has pretty much ended, I have made my final picks on replacement names(though I think only Irene will be retired, I'll put down a name for Arlene, Irene, Lee, and Ophelia).


 * Irene - Irma(as said above)
 * Lee - Lucas
 * Ophelia - Orson
 * Arlene - Abby

These are my personal picks for possible retirees of 2011, but again, of these names, Irene is the only one that's definitely going IMO. Ryan1000 21:03, November 15, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan Orson is a male name so it can not replace Ophelia Allanjeffs 02:11, November 16, 2011 (UTC)


 * It doesn't sound like it, but Orson can be male or female Allan, like Kirby. It may sound more masculine than feminine, but Cyclone Orson of 1989 was used as a female name and it was one of the worst storms in western Australia's history. I know it may be a bit frowned upon to use that, but it is a possibility, I know. Ryan1000 15:11, November 16, 2011 (UTC)


 * Eugene was a male name in the EPac this year. Sounds female to me, but apparently it's masculine... Yqt1001 21:37, November 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * You can strike out some of the name ideas quite now. Hurricane names must a) be easy to remember and b) they must be of english, french, or spanish origin. --88.102.101.245 08:19, December 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure about that. Whenever a nation requests a name to be retired, they can send any name they want to replace it(see Dean). If the name is different from the retiree in question, the WMO goes for it. There's no rule the replacement name has to be of English, French, or Spanish origin; the name could be a different name of a different latin origin altogether. Maybe it could be a German name. Rita and Stan were retired after 2005 and they were replaced with Rina and Sean, respectively, for this season, which rules out the rule the "rule" the replacement name can't be one or two letters off either. We can never tell what will replace a name, but we can say there is a better chance of this name being chosen over that one, ect. Irene could be replaced with Irena for all we know... Ryan1000 11:21, December 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * As far as I know, there is no such rule that the names have to be English, Spanish, or French in origin. For example, Igor (used in 2010) is a Russian name. 140.198.139.6 18:05, December 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the name can be of any origin, and one not currently in use would also work. Variants of retired names can be used per Rita>Rina or Stan>Sean, or perhaps Frederic>Fabian>Fred, but that was indirect and doesn't count as reusing a retired name in my book. I earlier said Ines seemed unlikely because of Inez (though I never ruled it out because the WMO has used variants like I said before), so we can never exactly tell what will happen. We can say this seems more likely, but we can never "rule out" anything. Ryan1000 00:17, December 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe one day I will see my name in the list but is very improbable because is very similar with Allen and it would be easier tu put Alan that has just 1 L and not Allan of two L Allanjeffs 23:50, December 15, 2011 (UTC)

CSU Verification
Enjoy it! Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 21:42, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hmmm... So overall ACE was more near 124.5. That doesn't make much of a difference, and although 2011 had many missed opportunities, it was bad enough with Irene. There were 90.5 days of active storms in 2011, which, although it's the 6th highest number since 1944, only totals to your average storm lasting about 4.7 days. That's one of the lowest average storm day totals ever. Ryan1000 23:09, November 30, 2011 (UTC)

2012 season
Right here. Cyclone10  Contributions  02:43, December 1, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance, part 2
With the season over, it's time to start part 2. I think the following:
 * 10% for Arlene - She hit Mexico and caused minor damage there. She hit Mexico, that's really enough to warrant a 0%.
 * 2% for Bret - Well, he did affect land.
 * 0% for Cindy
 * 0% for Don - He technically made landfall as a TD so his landfall doesn't get a 1%
 * 3% for Emily - Nothing really happened with Emily in the end.
 * 0% for Franklin
 * 0% for Gert - Didn't technically affect Bermuda
 * 3% for Harvey - He made landfall at a respectable intensity, but it wasn't as bad as it could've been.
 * 98% for Irene - I know some people will get mad at me for putting so much hope into Irene, but really, there are many countries/states that had significant damage to retire it, and retirement is very, very likely.
 * 0% for Jose
 * 1% for Katia - She caused deaths, and technically her damage in the UK counts, but I doubt that they even know how to retire a storm....
 * 60% for Lee - If the damage in Pennsylvania s confirmed to be because of him, then he is going to be retired, with 4 billion in damage from that state alone. The gulf coast alone also has a significant reason to retire him. We'll see what happens in the post season though.
 * 1% for Maria - She did affect Canada.
 * 1% for Nate - He pulled a Don at landfall, but he did kill some people so you never know.
 * 1% for Ophelia - TCR came out showing that the flooding in Dominica was not because of Ophelia, pretty much removing her chances. She still hit Canada, but wasn't that bad.
 * 0% for Philippe - He never seemed to die, but never killed anyone. Win win situation here! :)
 * 1% for Rina - Well this storm was very close to a bad storm for Mexico, but thankfully she decided to just drop down to a TS before landfall instead of a category 3 hurricane like she was supposed to be. She did less damage in Mexico than Arlene in the end.
 * 0% for Sean - A nice November TC, but didn't do much in the end.

Now post you predictions for retirement! Yqt1001 21:07, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

Here's mine (again): -- Cyclone10 03:43, January 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 3% - 18 deaths and 1 tornado isn't enough to make it a retiree.
 * Bret - 0% - Curved away from land.
 * Cindy - 0% - No impact.
 * Don - 0% - Texans were disapointed.
 * Emily - 3% - Not big damage.
 * Franklin - 0% - Did he last to 12 or 36 hours?
 * Gert - 0% - Nope..
 * Harvey - 7% - A Matthew-type situation was avoided.
 * Irene - 85% - Just in case this doesn't get retired.
 * Jose - 0% - No way Jose.
 * Katia - 10% - Truly did more damage as a European Windstorm.
 * Lee - 20% - Which came first: Lee or the front?
 * Maria - 7% - It could've been devastating.
 * Nate - 3% - Upgrades are not part of a reason for retirement.
 * Ophelia - 25% - Not enough damage. But, who knows?
 * Philippe - 0% - Gave me something to look at.
 * Rina - 5% - Paula- like storm.
 * Sean - 0% - Huh?

From lowest to highest, here are my predictions:


 * Cindy, Don, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Philippe, and Sean - 0% - All of these system did nothing in terms of impact.

There you go! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:57, December 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bret, Harvey, Katia, Maria, Nate, and Rina - 1% - All affected land, but are probably 0%'s to their respective countries.
 * Emily and Ophelia - 3% - These are a bit more likely, but it's still extremely unlikely either will get booted off.
 * Arlene - 10% - Despite causing 25 deaths and ~$200 million, she'll most likely be back in 2017.
 * Lee - 50% - He caused $1+ billion, and added on to the New England floods, so he has a good chance of going.
 * Irene - 95% - This storm affected plenty of countries, and one of them is sure to submit the name for reirement.

I made a few modifications to my forecasts, mainly increasing probabilities for Lee and Katia.


 * Arlene 1%: Very unlikely for retirement to occur because Mexico was hit.
 * Bret ~0%: No severe impact.
 * Cindy ~0%: No severe impact.
 * Don 1%: Very unlikely for retirement because it actually brought rain to places which needed it.
 * Emily 1%: Very unlikely for retirement.
 * Franklin ~0%: No severe impact.
 * Gert ~0%: No severe impact.
 * Harvey 1%: Very unlikely for retirement.
 * Irene 75% : High chance of retirement because she was a $10 billion storm which affected a large amount of countries.
 * Ten 0%: Name cannot be retired.
 * Jose ~0%: No severe impact.
 * Katia 10%: Reasonable impact in Europe, but as an extratropical storm.
 * Unnamed Nova Scotia Tropical Storm 0%: Name cannot be retired.
 * Lee 15%: Chance of retirement because he was a $1 billion storm - but still a tropical storm nonetheless.
 * Maria 5%: Unlikely for retirement because minimal damage in Newfoundland.
 * Nate 1%: Less impact than Arlene.
 * Ophelia 15%: Chance of retirement because there was severe flooding in Dominica and damage was not negliable in Newfoundland.
 * Philippe ~0%: No severe impact.
 * Rina 5%: Unlikely for retirement because minimal damage in Belize.
 * Sean ~0%: No severe impact.

Dree12 03:09, December 9, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan Grand has made his final speech: Ryan1000 03:54, December 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 21% - I don't care if this storm was in Mexico, it has a chance nevertheless.
 * Bret - 1% - It affected the northern Bahamas, but nothing much happened here.
 * Cindy - 0% - Not a chance.
 * Don - 1% - It affected land, but nothing severe happened at all, so I doubt retirement here.
 * Emily - 3% - Nothing bad happened here either. I wasn't really expecting Emily to be that bad anyways.
 * Franklin - 0% - It existed. Nothing else can be said about this one.
 * Gert - 0% - Bermuda actually could have used a wave or two here.
 * Harvey - 6% - Nothing too bad here either.
 * Irene - 88% - Irene was the most notable storm of the season and she has a very good shot at retirement, but there is always that slim chance it may not happen(Gordon, Karl).
 * Jose - 0%. What?
 * Katia - 0% - Storms aren't retired for non-tropical impacts.
 * Lee - 45% - There is a chance, but the 1 billion mark is rather iffy for the U.S. nowadays, and I wouldn't be very surprised if Lee isn't retired.
 * Maria - 4% - Igor was so much worse than this one.
 * Nate - 7% - Don 2.0.
 * Ophelia - 6% - The strongest storm of the season, but Ophelia still caused rather minimal damage.
 * Philippe - 0% - It persisted for a long time, but didn't affect land nontheless.
 * Rina - 2% - Repeat of Paula.
 * Sean - 0% - A fishspinner tropical storm caps off the 2011 season.


 * I don't think Lee get's retired. It weakened to a remnant low shortly after landfall. However, those remnants did a very good job to prevent Katia from slamming somewhere into Norther Florida, the Carolina states or somewhere above. The only worser thing Lee caused as a tropical storm was increasing the Texas bush fires. Irene is definitely gone, too much damage, too many deads. No other retirements. --88.102.101.245 08:26, December 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Lee certainly has a chance either way. Although it wasn't a hurricane, it still did a billion dollars in damage and killed many people. But yeah, the billion-dollar mark has fallen since the 1980's/1970's. Irene 1999, Bonnie 1998, and Dolly 2008 all did a billion dollars in damage and none of them were retired, so I wouldn't be too surprised if Lee is staying with us next spring too. The overall summary, as I mentioned in retirements part 1, is Irene, then Lee, then Arlene, then storms with minor impacts like Emily, Harvey, Ophelia, ect, and lastly, the fishies. Ryan1000 14:29, December 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are my final retirement predictions:

Arlene - 15% - 25 deaths and $213 million give this an outside shot at retirement, but "It hit Mexico" is enough to give this a 0%.

Bret - 0% - No severe land impact

Cindy - 0% - No land impact

Don - 0% - No severe land impact

Emily - ≤1% - In the end, nothing much happened to Hispaniola.

Franklin - 0% - No land impact

Gert - 0% - No land impact

Harvey - 0% - Only minimal damage was recorded in Central America.

Irene - 80% - $10 billion and historic flooding in the Northeast are two reasons this has a high shot at going.

Jose - 0% - No land impact

Katia - 0% - No severe land impact while tropical

Lee - 40% - $1 billion dollars and the rain records it broke give this a medium shot at retirement.

Maria - 0% - No severe land impact

Nate - 0% - No severe land impact

Ophelia - 1% - Flooding in Dominica could be severe, but Ophelia likely warrants a 0%.

Philippe - 0% - No land impact

Rina - 0% - No severe land impact

Sean - 0% - No severe land impact

Replacement names, part 3
If you could pick one name to replace any name that gets retired (if it does), what would it be? Here are my picks:


 * Replace Irene with Ilaria.


 * Replace Lee with Luigi.

What do you think? And no, names do NOT have to be English, French, or Spanish in origin despite the common misconception (Igor was a Russian name). Andros 1337 22:44, December 28, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I know they don't have to be of any particular origin (Frank/Franklin are German-like names), but I still think Irene should be replaced with Irma IMO. And I still don't think Lee will be retired. The damage may seem really impressive, but there have been other storms in the past that have caused similar damage totals and weren't retired. And keep in mind damage isn't the only indicator for retirement. Lee only killed 18 people, and that's not too much, not enough for retirement IMO. Irene on the other hand killed over 50 people, 46 in the U.S. Even Arlene killed more people than Lee did. Lee has a chance, but I wouldn't be very surprised if Lee isn't retired either. The WMO's meeting wil take place from April 11 to 15 in 2012 (see the wikipedia article under "storm names"), and by then, I'm pretty sure Irene will be retired. There are plenty of descent female "I" names available, but male "I" names are coming up short. Aside from the Atlantic, I also think Washi and Talas are gone in WPac, and Yasi in SHem. Ryan1000 01:49, December 29, 2011 (UTC)

Here is Andrew Peter Tillerman's alphabetical list of replacement names, with my retiree replacement names in bold:

ANNETTE

BART

COLETTE

DUNCAN

ELANORA

FERNALD

GERALDINE

HAL

ISADORA

JACQUES

KIT

LUKE

MARGE

NUTE

OFELIA (I don't know a lot of "O" names, sorry!)

PHIL

REBECCA

SPENCER

TRINA

VINCENT

WALLIS

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  02:19, December 29, 2011 (UTC)

I mentioned earlier Orson can be male or female, so that could replace Ophelia, but I don't think it will be retired anyways. The only other names you said that could be confusing are Rebecca (Rebekah replaced Roxanne but has yet to be used), and Vincent could be considered a longer form of Vince. However, Franklin could be considered a longer version of Frank and both of those names are in use. If I had to retire Lee, I would want to replace him with Leonardo. Ryan1000 13:28, December 30, 2011 (UTC)