Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season/Joaquin

AOI: Near Bermuda
Popped up on the TWO and is at 20/20. Might have a slight shot before an encounter with upper-level winds.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:58, September 26, 2015 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
The race to become Joaquin has officially began! 40/40 on the official TWO and looks to be quickly organizing. I have a little bit of a feel this could be something like Henri. Owen 05:42, September 27, 2015 (UTC)

This looks like a td or on a verge of becoming one. Might become Joaquin tomorrow. Hope we can reach Larry or Mindy this year.Allanjeffs 22:43, September 27, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven
Meh. Not even forecast to become named. If that pans out, this will be the fifth Atlantic TC in a row to peak below 50 kts. Not even 2013 pulled that off. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:00, September 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Erm... scratch that... "...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY..." 40 kts of failure expected. Crap... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:53, September 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * Dylan you might be wrong as models are predicting a re-Sandy with this storm and even stronger. Hope they are wrong. Poor NE if it verifies.Allanjeffs 23:03, September 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Which models are you referring to? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:03, September 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * You might want to see the HRWF and most model brings td 11 by different intensities to the NE.Allanjeffs 00:22, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Allan, I think it might be a little early to tell. It'd be nice just to track a decent hurricane that recurves out to sea instead. There is much uncertainty regarding the future intensity of this system and it will all depend on the environment. Anyway, based on the latest DVORAK reading (28/2345 UTC 26.7N 70.1W T2.5/2.5 11L), as far as I know, we are almost certain now to see the name Joaquin be used for the first time at 11 pm. Owen 00:38, September 29, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Joaquin
Owen nailed it. I don't like the looks on this thing. The predicted peak intensity has been rapidly rising over the past couple of advisories, and now-Joaquin is currently forecast to be nearing New Jersey as a 55-kt storm. It will be moving poleward like Irene, so it won't have Sandy's constant onshore flow, but even a strong TS in that part of America can never be a good thing. Suddenly that first forecast doesn't seem so bad after all... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:42, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dylan, you beat me to putting this section on here too lol. Anyway, I was hoping we would make it to Joaquin this season, and we have! We have surpassed the activity both last year and the activity in 2009, so it's pretty interesting that we could see have a couple more storms left of the season. Overall, this season really can be compared to 2013 minus Danny. But, it only takes one to make a season memorable so we'll see what Joaquin ends up doing. Owen 02:48, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * You're right, it does only take one; Joaquin would make two. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:50, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I meant to put "memorable for the United States". But yeah, I hope Joaquin isn't that bad in the Northeast, particularly New Jersey, as in Hurricane Sandy my grandparents' beach houses were completely damaged and the Jersey Shore in general does not need another damaging storm. Although the forecast only shows a 65 mph tropical storm in that area at that point in time, I have a somewhat bad feeling about this one. Owen 03:41, September 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin is really looking good on sattelite so it might become a hurricane faster than thought.also 99L is not looking to bad might become Kate as it already has winds of 40mph. It just need a better and tada. I hope we can reach Mindy or Nicholas before all is done.Allanjeffs 04:51, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic isn't doing half-bad for a super El Nino year, if Danny didn't become a major hurricane we could draw a lot of parallels between this year and 2013, though the notable storm we had (thus far) this year was Erika and not Ingrid. Joaquin could very well become a hurricane as it moves slowly west over the next day or two before quickly turning north towards New England. However Owen, you're right, the GFDL and HWRF actually do take this moving in an onshore direction over New Jersey, which is the last thing they want after what they got with Sandy, though the GFS doesn't even complete it's forecast near New England, and if it pans out Joaquin could turn out to sea. That would be a best-case scenario, but it all depends on how that trough near the east coast behaves over the next week. If it stays where it is and pulls Joaquin northward it'll hit New England, but if it moves east and out to sea, Joaquin will too. Ryan1000 12:15, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Latest ATCF update catapults Joaquin to 55 kts/992 mbar, making it the third-strongest storm of the season. It will be very interesting to see what the NHC comes out with for a track and intensity forecast in a couple hours. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:12, September 29, 2015 (UTC)

Nothing to see here, please disperse.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:25, September 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hey, at least it isn't a ball of failure like the original forecast had stated it to be. There is a very high likelihood that we will get our third hurricane, and potentially major hurricane which most definitely can not be discounted. Owen 19:27, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Frankly I'd take a ball of failure over that HWRF forecast. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:03, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * That's true, but hopefully it stays offshore. New NHC forecast just in, expected to now peak as a 90 mph hurricane, so I would say that Cat 2 status is now on the table and Category 3 status isn't too far-fetched either. The warm water isn't really benefiting the United States either. Owen 21:00, September 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * All models now bring Joaquin to cat 4 or high end cat 3. Now even the Gfs brings Joaquin to a landfall at Maryland/Virginia border.That would be very bad to those places if that forecast pans out. For the sake of the US I hope not.Going to wait and see the Euro and the track it might show. But base on intensity models the NHC might need to up the intensity they have Joaquin peaking in their advisories.Allanjeffs 22:56, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Play nice, Joaquin. Become a major if you insist, but no land for you! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:09, September 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Nearly a hurricane (60 kts/988 mbar), forecast peak raised to Category 2 (90 kts), Hurricane Watches up for portions of the Bahamas. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:55, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * This thing is passing over record warm SST's for the area it's passing over and shear could drop below 15 knots on Wednesday. These conditions easily support Joaquin becoming a strong cat 3 or 4 hurricane, but whether or not it will hit the US all depends on how that trough off the east coast interacts with Joaquin. Best-case scenario, it could force Joaquin far enough east to remain offshore, but some of the models see a ridge of high pressure off of New England strengthening at the same time, and that could trap Joaquin between the trough and the ridge, forcing Joaquin due north very fast towards the same area where hurricanes Carol and Bob hit, or Joaquin could even expand enough to push against the trough and head northwest towards Virginia and Maryland in Chesapeake Bay, I can't remember the last time a strong hurricane hit there. And god forbid that happen, the tucked-back position of Chesapeake Bay would easily funnel a hurricane's storm surge to enormous, unimaginable heights. Ryan1000 03:28, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * I can't believe that a storm that was originally supposed to peak as a tropical depression is turning into what could be a monsterous storm for the U.S east coast. This storm has a shot of getting it's name retired from it's first use if some of the models are right... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:35, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Waiting for the Euro´s run to see if it becomes the last model to join the NE lanfall point as the CMC is now with the NAM,GFS,UKMET and HWRF in showing a lanfall. Joaquin for sure will be retire if it makes landfall in there. Might not even affect the NE to be retire as models are predicting a cat 4 in the Bahamas. That is really dangerous. The GFS put Joaquin at cat 5 the same as the HRWF hope this start weaking but is looking good satellites. Might be a 80mph storm now.Allanjeffs 05:02, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * The Euro is the only model that takes this out to sea, but with a 1031 mbar high off of New England, I, unfortunately, doubt that will happen. Still not yet a hurricane, but part of the western portion was eroded away lately, it might take until tomorrow to become a hurricane after all. But because shear will lessen it's grip on Joaquin as it rockets north or north-northwest this weekend, it could actually strengthen to a cat 2 or 3 as it heads north towards the mid Atlantic or New England. Ryan1000 11:47, September 30, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin
Intermediate advisory puts Joaquin at 75mph, making it a hurricane. It could be higher then that though because it looks well organized on satellite and has a pressure of 971 mb, which is usually seen in at least a 90mph storm. The Bahamas now have a hurricane warning... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:42, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Is it safe to say that the 'J' name on this list is cursed? Back in 1985, Juan caused severe flooding damage in Louisiana and Virginia. In 2003, Juan's second and final incarnation was the worst hurricane to hit Canada in decades. And now in 2015, Juan's replacement, Joaquin, could become one of the most destructive natural disasters in American history if one of those model solutions (such as by HWRF and GFS) pans out. Three uses of the 'J' name on this list, and all three either were serious disasters (both Juans), or have a decent possibility of being such (Joaquin). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:32, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is a threat to Bahamas as of the moment, and yes, to the U.S. East Coast too, in the long run. I can see an Irene '11 in this, although I may be wrong. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:13, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Forecast to become a major, and the NHC says it might be conservative. 80mph/971mb. If it manages to keep organizing this fast we could have a category 4. :O ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:03, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * 75 kts/968 mbar per the 2pm interim advisory. For what it's worth, Joaquin has surpassed Danny - a major hurricane! - as the strongest storm of the season in terms of pressure, and is currently tied with Fred for second place in terms of winds (though Joaquin is all but certain to overtake Fred, and may even overtake Danny too). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:49, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * According to the forecast, the Bahamas may be getting hurricane force winds for 12 hours straight. That's really not good... And with a pressure reading that low, I bet Joaquin's wind speed is going to be rapidly rising. It's a very interesting unpredictable storm minus the impacts it's likely about to cause. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:08, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Joaquin is really beginning to scare the Northeast. Honestly speaking, Joaquin should be able to become a Category 4 for the time he will be spending over warm waters. It could be a re-Irene scenario, but hopefully not a re-Sandy. Owen 19:09, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * Eh...maybe, but there were 4 instances on this list when the "J" name wasn't even used due to inactivity. I wouldn't say this year's "J" name is as cursed as, say, list 5 of the Atlantic, which still has yet to go one season of usage without having at least 1 retired name. But back to Joaquin, hory sheet, this thing is now expected to become a major hurricane, and it could even become a minimal cat 4, and then head straight into New Jersy or even, god forbid, New York City as a strong category 1, 2, or even 3 hurricane. It won't be as widespread as Sandy was when it hit almost 3 years ago because it's smaller and will be moving faster, but it could be stronger at landfall, which would mean a bigger storm surge in some areas near the coastline. This could get real nasty for the folks in the northeast. Ryan1000 19:53, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * I lose internet for almost a week (we've had several terrible thunderstorms messing up the power) and we're on the 'J' name. I could have sworn this was an El Nino year. So why all the activity in the Atlantic all of a sudden? This doesn't look good. Also, as several people above stated, the 'J' names on this list seem to be cursed. Also 968 is pretty low for a cat 1. (Didn't get to use this signature much, and I'm about to chnage it -->) leeboy100 Rita 2005-2015 21:02, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * The latest 5pm advisory came out and dropped the pressure down by 1 milibar, but the winds are the same. Joaquin is also expected to move further west now and storm into Chesapeake Bay and Virginia as a minimal hurricane or tropical storm. If it hits there as a hurricane, it would be the first hurricane to hit there since the 1933 Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane if I recall correctly, but that storm hit the coast head-on, while Joaquin will be coming in from the south. But that's still a highly-populated and highly inexperienced area of the united states for hurricanes. Ryan1000 21:12, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * There's an eye appearing on satellite now, I think the next advisory might put it at 90mph. And the fact that the new forecast brings it onshore as a category 2 is not good. The edge of the tropical storm force winds have now reached the Bahamas, as well. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:48, September 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * WOW! Joaquin is now a Category 2! He is really impressing. Owen 23:59, September 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin is really intensifying might become an upper cat 4 at this rating. pressure is 954 a little low for a cat 2. The Bahamas should really be preparing for a big and strong storm. Models might not be that crazy as how fast Joaquin is intensifying. NC to Bermuda should be watching it very closely. Allanjeffs 00:05, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * And I thought it was going to be 90mph. Wow this thing's intensifying fast, I think that a major is certain now and a category 4 is likely. I don't even think category 5 can be ruled out. Run, people of the Bahamas! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:09, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin is probably a major now they are flight level winds at 113knots an surface winds at 102 knots. enough for upgrade. Cat 5 is not out of the question as the HWRF and GFS show them on their tracks,but I think it might peak at upper cat 4.Allanjeffs 00:15, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

This is becoming a very dangerous situation. At the rate Joaquin is intensifying, Joaquin may make a run at becoming the first Category 5 in the Atlantic since Felix in 2007. Once his eye clears out completely, he's set. Owen 00:26, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Joaquin
The latest ATCF update (AL, 11, 2015100100,, BEST, 0, 239N, 730W, 100, 951, HU) says we're at 10/3/2. Ok, now I'm going to go out on a limb and say that with the conditions Joaquin has and as long as he doesn't undergo an eyewall replacement cycle before then, he'll be able to reach Category 5 status. Owen 00:43, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wow, already. I guess the next advisory from the NHC should make it a major then. We seriously could be seeing our first Atlantic C5 since Felix... In an El Nino year! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:54, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Officially a major hurricane per NHC. Forecast peak raised to 120 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:01, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * I think cat 5 intensity is stretching it too far, but a 135-145 mph cat 4 from Joaquin is not impossible at all, I had the feeling this thing would explode in the record warm SST's it's in, and it did. It's got another day, maybe two, before it'll begin weakening from the trough. The forecast now takes Joaquin into North Carolina and southeastern Virginia as a 100 mph category 2 hurricane, but if it becomes a strong 4, it might hit Virginia as a 3. This is looking out to be a really ugly storm for the mid-Atlantic region. Ryan1000 04:10, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * There's a pinhole eye apperent on satellite right now. If it can sustain a pinhole eye, then it still could become a category 5. Why is it, though that all Atlantic category 5s seem to cause damage to stuff? There's a hurricane warning in pretty much all of the Bahamas now. However, the current track from the NHC has it miss the U.S coast, but they'll be releasing a new one soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:33, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast track points Joaquin directly at my neck of the woods (Massachusetts), so I wouldn't quite qualify that as "miss[ing] the U.S. coast." However, as much as I hate to say this, a TS/Cat 1 here probably wouldn't be as bad as a similar-strength storm in NYC, or a Cat 2/3 in Virginia. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:00, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * JOAQUIN IS ALREADY A CAT 4 :( STAY SAFE, AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN!
 * Hurricane-joanquin-memes-2.jpg blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 18:15, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's trying to clear out it's eye. And yes, looks like it is going to hit the coast. Hopefully though it instead veers out towards the sea, staying off shore as it goes near the coast instead. The fact that some of these models are predicting a turn into the coast is not looking good. And it's now a category 4. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:38, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * 115 kts/936 mbar. First sub-940 mbar storm in the Atlantic since Igor. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:49, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * @Ryan, I feel it is very possible Joaquin will become a Category 5 considering he is STILL in warm water and has not made his turn to the north, which could force it to move inland more in the Carolinas I would think. In addition, he is already at 130 mph now and still strengthening and has about 24 hours or so left to do what he wants to do, which is plenty of time. Heck, if it keeps going the way it is, warnings and watches may be required for Florida. Owen 19:45, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is very possible for Joaquin to reach cat. 5 even though winds have slightly weakened. I'm not going to be on the rest of the day, and probably tommorow. But, I'll be watching this closely. leeboy100 Rita 2005-2015 21:03, October 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm not going to let my guard down, but models are (thankfully) starting to trend Joaquin out to sea. Still can't rule out some impacts in the US, lest earlier models turn out to be correct and Joaquin either takes a left-hand turn into the Mid-Atlantic, or heads north straight into New England. Besides, even if Joaquin does dodge the US, I'd say it already has a decent shot at retirement based on its impacts in the Bahamas. This was a nasty surprise for them. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:11, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * The NHC says winds are still 130, it didn't weaken. Unless you're looking somewhere else. Anyway, models are starting to turn the hurricane away from the coast, however the Bahamas are getting slammed, and the longer it refuses to turn north the worse it will be for them. Even if it doesn't become a category 5, this is going to be very damaging for them. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:08, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * I take back my previous post. My schedule has cleared up, and since I'm so astonished at Joaquin (considering the strength of Atlantic storms the past 3 or 4 years) I'll probably be posting a lot. Now, getting back on topic, this storm is amazing, if only it could just curve out to sea. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:33, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm sorry, but wasn't this an El Nino year? It sure doesn't seem like one. Alright, when I said I'd be posting a lot, this isn't what I had in mind. I just noticed that I've already posted like 6 times, and that post above, wasn't even thirty minutes ago. I'll back off, I'm talking to much. But anyone in New England, beware. I'm going to go watch The Weather Channel now. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:53, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

I know I haven't been on lately due to school, but Joaquin is looking massive, and just astonishing. It is currently pounding the Bahamas with who-knows-how-bad weather, and possibly a lot of devastation in the islands. Joaquin just awesomely powerful for its first use, but unfortunately, New England is in the threat zone. I would really appreciate it if Joaquin could just turn away from the east coast, as I don't want to see a lot of devastation in the area. The forecast track takes the center a little offshore, but they could still feel quite a lot of impacts nonetheless. The impact in the Bahamas could even be enough for at least a moderate shot of retirement, but since the Bahamas is not really that populated, it would take extreme devastation in the islands for the storm to be retired if it didn't reach the U.S. Well thankfully it is expected to not be too powerful when it arrives, so it probably won't be so bad of a storm after all for the east coast.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:51, October 1, 2015 (UTC)

New advisory just came out. Winds stay at 130 Mph. But the pressure has gone down to 931. And it's now headed WSW, it might already be making that turn. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 23:59, October 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * The pressure keeps falling but the winds haven't risen since they peaked at 130 earlier on, maybe Joaquin is falling victim to upwelling over its own wake, like Blanca did earlier this year in the EPac. The latest sattelite imagery reflects this somewhat, the eye is becoming a little ragged and it could go on a weakening trend from here on out. But even if Joaquin spares the east coast of the U.S. from a landfall (which is looking increasingly likely at this point), a cat 4 sitting over the southern Bahamas for 2-3 days can't have good results. The damage caused down there might be enough to retire Joaquin on its own merit. Ryan1000 01:51, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * 11 pm advisory (Eastern time) is out. Winds still remain the same, at 130 MPH (113 Knots) but the pressure has gone back up to 935 millibars. And it is perhaps being affected by upwelling, Ryan. As the eye is now becoming less defined. Maybe our cat 5 will have to wait. Anyways, I'm going to bed, It's getting late and I have to get up early. I'll be busy until late tommorow afternoon, I'll be on then. (around 20:00 UTC) leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 03:03, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Oh, and I forgot to mention that the forecast path no longer has it making a direct landfall in the U.S. However it has done quite enough damage in the Bahamas.......... leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 03:05, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * 8 AM advisory is out, it's still at 130 mph but the pressure rose even more to 937. It's slowly moving northwest over the Bahamas, but it'll turn northeast later today and tomorrow. It'll spare the east coast of the U.S. at this point for sure. The only areas that could be affected on Joaquin's way out to sea would be Bermuda or Atlantic Canada. Ryan1000 11:58, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * The nation's attention has moved onto the Oregon tragedy now, so yeah, Joaquin is an afterthought to most Americans at this point. Katrina, Sandy, and Haiyan are still the only storms this century that ordinary people will remember. See you in 2021! TekkenGuy12 (talk) 13:44, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be so sure about Joaquin coming back in 2021 just yet. The worst of Joaquin has been sitting over Long Island in the Bahamas for nearly 24 hours. They better have some superlative construction codes, or else I wouldn't be surprised if there's near-total devastation on that island. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:34, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * A cargo ship with 33 crew members has reportedly gone missing in the vicinity of Crooked Island. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:41, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * On a positive note, Joaquin has finally weakened a little bit. 2pm interim advisory raised the pressure to 942 mbar, and the 18z ATCF update lowered the winds to 110 kts. Hopefully this is the start of a trend. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:43, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah the latest advisory downs it to 125 mph, and it's expected to pass between the eastern U.S. and Bermuda, which is a best-case scenario for Joaquin going out to sea. And Tekkenguy, the Bahamas took a severe beating from this thing, a category 4 hurricane sitting over the islands for two days can't end with good results, even if the buildings there are well-designed. The damage in the Bahamas could easily be enough to retire it, even though the U.S. lucked out. Ryan1000 21:15, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * HSMC model track is meaning that it will hit Canada with winds of 45 mph/
 * (SpcardozoComesBack left this, but forgot to sign the post. But, don't worry Spcardozo, forgetting to sign posts happens to me all the time ;D)


 * I'm here, and Joaquin has now weakened to a category 3. The forecast now says it won't hit the U.S. but it is already causing destructive surge in Carolina. Stay safe everyone (P.S. just like last year, I'm making my signature pink in honor of breast cancer awareness month, sorry if I'm changing it too much. P.P.S. I have no idea who wrote the post above me and it is unsigned.) leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 23:34, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin is weakening, Category 5 is now out of the picture. I'm sorry, guys but our category 5 is going to have to wait. It also no longer has winds of 130 MPh, so that's different. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin
 * It's down to Category 3 strength currently (125 mph and 944 mbars). The forecast now takes him up towards Bermuda instead of the U.S., which is a good thing for our country, but could be really bad news for Bermuda. This basin is cursed to not produce a C5, so that's why Joaquin couldn't get that strong. The Bahamas probably suffered through extreme destruction, since a C4 stalling over the islands is never a good thing. And Bermuda is in the threat zone now, like I said before.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:13, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't really call that a curse Steve, Category 5s are supposed to be rare in the first place. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:55, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I know that they are supposed to be rare, but the thing is that the Atlantic hasn't seen one since 2007. This is 8 years without a C5, and before 2007, there's been a Category 5 about once every couple to a few years, while 2003, 2004, and 2005 were back-to-back years with a Category 5. So to me, this really seems like a curse, that could just about to be broken if Joaquin is a C5 on the next advisory.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:29, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I guess category 5 is out of the question, but it's pressure has begun to fall again, and it could become a category 4 again while over open waters. However, Bermuda's looking like it'll be in the path of this storm. Hopefully Gonzalo made them prepare for the next hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:54, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yep, it's eye cleared out on satellite, and it's been upgraded to a category 4 again in the latest NHC advisory. It's pressure is down to 936 mb, and it might manage to reach a new peak intensity before conditions cause it to weaken. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:06, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * WHOA! Special advisory takes it up to 155 mph, almost a category 5! Unless it gets upgraded to 160 mph in the intermediate advisory though, Joquain will remain 2 mph away from breaking the period with no category 5's. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:26, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * 933 mbar as of the moment. WOW, IT'S ALMOST A CATEGORY 5! Raindrop is right, Joaquin may reach a new peak intensity because of this new development. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:30, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I really want to see a category 5 from this now. It's so close! It has an hour and a half before the intermediate advisory, if it can get more organised it will be a 5. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:34, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looks to be weakening on satellite. However, I think it was more organised about 30 minutes before the flight sent back that data, and could have been a category 5 at that time. 17:47, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

"Joaquin is weakening, category 5 is now out of the picture

Leeboy100 03:05, October 3, 2015 (UTC)"

O_O I take back what I said! I just woke up and Joaquin is at 155 MPH!!!! He's so close to becoming our first cat. 5 since Felix. This storm is incredible. Come on Joaquin, you can do it! leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 17:56, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

Inner winds of Joaquin have measured up to 166 mph! YAY!

H u rr icane 1 6 2

18:43, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Joaquin could very well become a Category 5 tonight or even could've been one earlier. But, as of now, I have a feeling this was his final last punch. Bad news for Bermuda is that he will be stronger than expected when he passes by the island. Owen 19:01, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I still have some high hopes that Joaquin is a Category 5 on the next advisory. I'd really appreciate it if he can break the curse that's been ongoing for 8 years now. In a couple hours, we'll see what the next advisory says. Hopefully it becomes a Category 5, but drastically weakens before hitting Bermuda!  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:29, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Come on Joaquin you can do it! leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 19:42, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * His eye reorganised after I said it looked like it was weakening, and it still could be a category 5 in the next advisory. Please be a category 5! (And don't do too much damage to Bermuda) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:51, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Bad news: New advisory says that it weakened to 150 mph/934 mbars :(  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 20:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * >:( F**K!!!!!!!! Why can't the Atlantic have a category 5!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Well, I'm going to track Oho now. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 20:36, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I know the feelings, bro. The Atlantic really doesn't want to produce a C5 again, I guess. This curse has been going on for 8 years now, and I don't know when it will ever end.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 20:40, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Let Joaquin fall short. I was alarmed when I saw the 12pm special advisory, and I'm very impressed by Joaquin's sudden re-intensification today (and, given the fact that it took aircraft data to upgrade Joaquin, I think there's a decent chance that post-analysis could find a 5), but I sure as hell am not going to root for a Category 5 when there's a threat to land. As long as Bermuda is in the line of fire (especially after the double trouble they got from Fay and Gonzalo last year), I want this thing to weaken. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:50, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Woah, I did not expect this explosion in intensification today, this thing just took off in what seemed to be an environment that would become increasingly unfavorable. Some of the bahamas were just battered by this thing, with at least 2 deaths as of now, and if Joaquin fails to weaken significantly or turn further north of east over the next day or two, it could be Bermuda's worst hurricane in almost 90 years, definitely far worse than Fabian. Ryan1000 21:40, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * @Dylan. I want Joaquin to become a cat 5 as long as he weakens before hitting Bermuda. I guess the Atlantic just wants to continue it's cat 5 curse though. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 21:52, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Joaquin (continued)
Added a new header because I got tired of scrolling down to edit. Anyways, Joaquin is closer to Bermuda than I thought. So now, I don't know if I want a C5 out of this or not. But it still sucks that the Atlantic hasn't had a C5 in 8 years leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 22:15, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I don't want it to strengthen to a category 5 now because it would be bad for Bermuda. However, I think it has a shot at a post-season upgrade still, as it looked a little better before the aircraft found 155 mph winds. Hopefully it weakens instead of destroying Bermuda for the second time in two years. I guess let's hope it weakens, and hope for a post season upgrade to a category 5. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:38, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Thank you Raindrop, I completely forgot about post-season analysis. I hope it's upgraded then. Until then, Bermuda needs to look out. Unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your point of view, it appears to be strengthening again, so it may become a C5 anyways. I hope not, I guess. I don't know, I'm confused now. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 22:50, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Weakening further, winds now down to 145 MPH. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 00:07, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Whoa, 00z ATCF brings Joaquin all the way down to 115 kts/940 mbar. With a little luck, Bermuda might get off relatively easy. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:41, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * ...and looking at the recent sat imagery, I'm not surprised. Joaquin's northern side looks like it has been... shall we say, eaten... and the eye is deteriorating. In fact, the eye is located just inside the northern edge of the convection. I'm starting to wonder if we'll have a major hurricane with an a least partially exposed COC :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:54, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * Earlier, it appeared to be strengthening again. But now, it is definitely weakening. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 01:52, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * For those of you who are disappointed that Joaquin (operationally) did not reach Category 5 intensity; take solace in the fact that there have been significantly longer gaps between Category 5s. Going off the top of my head, there was a 15-year gap between the 1938 New England hurricane, and 1953's Hurricane Carol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:27, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Honestly, I think Joaquin could be re-classified as a Category 5 in post-season analysis as HH came into it right after it started to look like it was weakening again. Owen 03:00, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hence why I threw the "(operationally)" in there. ;) Anyway, the 11pm advisory marks the first time I have ever seen a Category 4 hurricane that looked like a tropical storm. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:49, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, to me, the satellite presentation looks more like a weak hurricane. :P And I do have hope that Joaquin will be upgraded post-season to a C5, but if storms like Igor and some others didn't, then it's likely this won't be upgraded as well. Still hope it happens though... The current advisory has him at 130 mph and 944 mbar, so it is definitely weakening. Bermuda does still need to look out, since currently, the NHC forecast shows that the storm could still be a hurricane when Bermuda is supposed to get the brunt of the storm. I'd be surprised if Joaquin doesn't cause enough devastation to have at least a moderate chance of retirement once it's all said and done. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:18, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * <p class="MsoNormal">Joaquin is now down to a Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 120mph (105kts). Pressure down to 952 mbars. Bermuda is now under Hurricane Warning. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:34, October 4, 2015 (UTC)

<p class="MsoNormal">Currently, Joquain is the worst looking major hurricane I've ever seen. (Although that's how Joquain has looked a lot, and it always had stronger winds then estimated) I think the next advisory should put it below major hurricane intensity though. EDIT: Advisory came out, it's now a category 2. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:45, October 4, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Joaquin (2nd time)
Well, it's been quickly weakening before reaching Bermuda, and it's no longer a major. It's going to be weaker then Gonzalo by the time it gets near enough to Bermuda to cause damage, so it shouldn't be that bad for them. However, storm damage is also very unpredicatable... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:06, October 4, 2015 (UTC)

Joaquin is weakening, he won't be around much longer now. Hopefully Bermuda isn't hit hard. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 02:20, October 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Down to a category 1, and the storm's completely changed shape, looking like a big spiral with much warmer convection. Bermuda has been getting tropical storm force winds, hopefully it wasn't that bad for them. I think they should have been prepared somewhat after what Gonzalo did though. However, it recently seems to be compacting on satellite, and it's gotten deeper convection. It could even manage to strengthen back up to 90 mph if it keeps looking better organised. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:41, October 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * After an extensive search, the US Coast Guard believes that the El Faro was sunk in Joaquin, and at least one body has been recovered. Between the El Faro and the massive devastation on land, I shudder to think how high the final death toll will be. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:34, October 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * As a side note, Joaquin is responsible for nearly doubling this season's ACE total. Joaquin's ACE currently stands at 23.4625; the first nine storms put in a combined total of 27.3075. Joaquin single-handedly raised the ACE/storm from 3.0342 to 5.0770. That is damn impressive. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:18, October 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wow, that's insane. And it's still out there, it's ACE total may still increase by 1-2 more. Joaquin put the rest of the season's storms to shame in terms of strength. It's still a hurricane, and it's organization is decent considering it's north of Bermuda now. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:15, October 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * That is really impressive. Joaquin's strength and slight longevity has just caused him to rack up a lot. Anyway, current strength is 80 mph/974 mbars, with continued weakening expected. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:20, October 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * "Is Joaquin still out there? *looks on wunderground* Holy crap, it is!" That was my reaction just a few minutes ago.I cannot believe that Joaquin (love that name btw) is still out there! I still can't believe how ever-so close Joaquin got to being a category 5. Unfortunately, this storm is believed to have caused at least 50 deaths, and as Dylan said, an, unidentified body was found, may he or she R.I.P. ( I couldn't find the gender) Also, this storm has caused some significant damage in the Bahamas. Also, due to the heavy rainfall on the east coast, I can easily see Joaquin being retired. Also, Joaquin is forecast to make it to the UK. So the ACE will probably be much higher than it already is. leeboy100 beware of Joaquin 23:00, October 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's amazing that Joquain is staying a hurricane and weakening so slowly that far north. It's up at 40 degrees latitude now, and it's still organised on satellite. I think it will last long enough to get an ACE value that's greater then all the other storms combined, it's pretty likely considering it's currently 26.715. And we should enjoy seeing this name used now, as it might not be coming back in 2021. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:57, October 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Joaquin needs an ACE of 27.3075 to match the combined total of all other storms this season. I wouldn't put it past him, he'll only need 3 to 5 more advisories to do it. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:02, October 7, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Joaquin (2nd time)
Down to a TS at last; 60 kts/978 mbar. With this advisory, Joauin's ACE is now 27.4025, the highest since Igor and more than the other nine storms combined. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:47, October 7, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joaquin
And...gone. Ryan1000 02:56, October 8, 2015 (UTC)