Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

July
Similar to the AHS forum, I will start this section slightly early. I'm not sure what to expect from the EPAC this month, but I hope the basin can pick up the pace. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:30, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:GFS twin storms
The GFS has been consistently predicting two TCs in the Epac. The first develops around 150 hrs out, reaching peak at 970 mb by 216 hrs, becoming post tropical by 252 hrs. The second, a weaker 990 mb develops 240 hrs out and becomes a PTC by 336 hrs. 182.58.36.75 10:19, July 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now they're on the TWO. The both of the systems are 0/20 as of now. :) 70.190.5.175 03:43, July 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * One of the two systems is at 0/30 now. :) 70.190.5.175 05:31, July 2, 2017
 * The two are intensifying right now. One system is at 20/40 while the other is at 0/60. There systems will become Eugene and Fernanda once these are tropical storms. :) 70.190.5.175 22:56, July 2, 2017 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
The one at 20/50 has been invested. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:36, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * The invest is up to 30/50. :) 70.190.5.175 16:38, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 60/60. :) 70.190.5.175 03:07, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * While 94L is picking up organization in the Atlantic, the EPac is kicking up as well with this thing. 94E is now up to 70% for 2 and 5 days, and an AOI behind this is also at 70% for 5 days, and a third storm could be coming behind that one. Even if this becomes Fernanda, NHC doesn't expect it to be too strong. But we could be at Greg or Hilary if all 3 of these AOI's develop and another one forecast by the GFS in a week or two. July is like the EPac's August, usually 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and one major form in the month. Ryan1000 15:36, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 70/70, but with very limited time to develop into something. Cold water and less favorable conditions are arriving after 2 days. I hope this is a depression max, as I do not wanna see the name "Eugene" be wasted by a failure. This will not be Fernanda as the other 2 AOIs are going to develop after this one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  21:56, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 80/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:45, July 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Dropped to 60/60, not expected to form. T  G  2 0 1 7 17:47, July 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Dropped further down to 30/30, time's running out for this one. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:18, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, there is no hope for this one anymore (unless it rapidly organizes at the last minute at unprecedented pace and becomes a brief TD, very unlikely). I hate how this had to flop. :( Eugene is going to come from the 20/80 AOI. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:54, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/10 right now, definitely not developing. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:16, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * RIP, gone. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:39, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:GFS twin storms (cont.)
This section's for the AOI at 0/60. Generally models are more enthusiastic about this one. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:36, July 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 0/70. :) 70.190.5.175 03:05, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This should be Eugene or Fernanda and hopefully be our next hurricane. I hope this is Eugene as the 70/70 system way in front of it is entering unfavorable conditions soon and will be nothing bigger than a weak fail and name-stealer if it becomes a TS. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  22:00, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This storm and the one before that has an 80/80 chance has been dropped by models. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:21, July 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20/80, maybe this will become Eugene. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:21, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * This should be Eugene 'cuz the other system is dying and no longer has a chance. Maybe this will even beat Dora to become the strongest of the season (too early to predict though). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:57, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:16, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Invested and up to 50/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:42, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90, getting ready to form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 02:48, July 7, 2017 (UTC
 * 90/90. TD5 is coming. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * 100/100, yet they haven't initiated advisories. (But they said they will.) T  G  2 0 1 7 18:14, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Eugene
Unexpectedly jumped straight to TS strength. 35 kt/1006 mbar. T G  2 0 1 7 21:45, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * All tropical cyclone forecast models agree on a parallel the coast offshore track as Eugene remains on the western edge of a ridge. All models show intensification, with the GFS making this around 85 knots, GFS-P has 90 knots, ECMWF has 65 knots, HWRF has 75 knots, HWRF-P has 85 knots, and HMON has 85 knots, SHIPS/LGEM has 80 knots. However, given that this will be moving over the sharp SST's of the California Current, I think most of the guidance peaks this too late, and unless this moves slower than expected, Eugene will be over 25C water in 60 hours time. Latest SAB T number is at T1.5. With 48 hours left, the standard 1/T number a day seems too low, which would bring this to T3.5/55 knots in two days, given that for now the waters it is over is very warm and the shear is less than 10 knots. The so-called rapid intensification of T1.5/day seems more reasonable, and that would bring this to T4.5 in 48 hours. I'd expect a peak of 80 knots, but this could be conservative if it ramps up tonight. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:26, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well that was a bit of a surprise to me. It will stay well away from Mexico. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:52, July 7, 2017 (UTC
 * If this was heading more west of north it'd be a more powerful storm, maybe even a major hurricane, but with the northward movement expected to come from this, I doubt Eugene will get too strong. Cat 1, maybe 2, is the strongest it'll probably get. Also don't forget that storms are numbered with an "E" instead of "L" suffix in the EPac. Ryan1000 04:31, July 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It intensified to 50 kn (60 mph) and 1000 mbar. Also I doubt that Eugene will be a major hurricane. Hi-70.190.5.175 16:10, July 8, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Eugene
Scratch what everyone said above. Eugene is rapidly intensifying and the new NHC forecast calls for the hurricane to reach winds of 105 mph. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Eugene will become the EPAC's first major hurricane of the season - that is if this intensification rate that's going on continues. Owen 03:19, July 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Eugene's forward speed is a lot slower than what was earlier forecast, so it looks like it'll have more time to intensify than previously thought. Wouldn't surprise me if this becomes a major at this rate. Ryan1000 12:31, July 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 3 hours late, but NHC explicitly forecasts this to become a major now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:47, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Eugene
Here's the first major hurricane of the season. It just intensified into a major hurricane (Category 3). It's currently at 115 mph/965 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:43, July 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am a bit surprised it got this far. Eugene should be nearing its peak due to upcoming cool waters and unfavorable conditions. It still has about a 12-hour window for further strengthening before the conditions hit. I hope it is able to get as far as C4 before the weakening begins. Show off your best possible performance Eugene! :) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:15, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Eugene (2nd time)
Weakened into a Cat. 2 with 105 mph/972 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:03, July 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now weakened into a Category 1 hurricane. 85 mph/982 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:24, July 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Eugene (2nd time)
Weakened further into a TS with 70 mph/990 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:54, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Eugene's dying quickly. Winds are down to 65 mph and convection is warming fast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:13, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now winds are down to 50 mph and pressure up to 1001 mbar. Eugene won't hold on anymore. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:21, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * At least it became a major hurricane (but barely). Eugene is going to die soon. Now time to focus on 96E, which could be another hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:04, July 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now weakened to 40 mph/1004 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:08, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eugene
Down to 30 kts/1006 mbar, should cease to be a tropical cyclone later today. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:52, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene
And he's gone...until 2023. Ryan1000 00:15, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:West of Central America
This newly formed system is at 0/20. :) 70.190.5.175 03:05, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * The EPac is firing up! We could be up as far as Greg by next week. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:02, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off of the TWO. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:20, July 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
Another disturbance just formed. It's at 10/20. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:34, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:55, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/60, and the 06z GFS shows this becoming a powerful hurricane and surviving to the WPAC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:22, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested and up to 60/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:11, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70/80, it has a shot of being named Fernanda. Hi!-70.190.5.175 22:45, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now this pretty much will be Fernanda... 90/90 and nothing is really stopping it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  01:06, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
Now a TD. Forecast shows a hurricane, but a major is not out of the question. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:59, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda
35 kts/1006 mbar. Forecast peak of 90 kts unchanged from previous advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:51, July 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am really not sure if I am allowed here, so I apologize if I am not, but HOLY COW. This storm looks like it could be something. There are warm waters everywhere, low shear, and the potential to track out to Hawaii. I would think at least a Category 4 out of this system. Maybe even a cat 5, which I guess is unlikely, but the setup is just too perfect for this storm not to succeed. --Emma and V 15:58, July 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Looking good for Fernanda but I suggest that it should at least intensify into a Category 1. Well I won't be surprised if  this were to intensify into a major hurricane or/and crossover the 3 Pacific basins. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:14, July 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernanda will likely be the biggest ACE producer and strongest storm of the season. The ECMWF and GFS and GFS-P have gradually trended more bullish and the SHIPS/LGEM have a Cat 2. HWRF/HWFR-P/HMON are all quite aggressive, calling for at least 90 knots in the 12z cycle. Waters are over 28C, and shear should remain low until at least 140W, although some increase in shear is possible after that time, which is about six days away anyway. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:13, July 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC is only calling for a cat 2, but given the environmental conditions in front of Fernanda, I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a major hurricane, maybe even a long-lived cat 4. If it makes it to the CPac, it'll probably pass south of Hawaii like most July storms do, but it could bring some welcome rain to the state down the road. Ryan1000 00:15, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now the NHC forecasts it to be a major hurricane. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:04, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernanda looks like it could get pretty powerful. Here comes our next major (and as 70 said, the NHC is forecasting it as well). I personally predict a peak of C4 from this thing. Even C5 may not be out of the question, but Fernanda would have to try its best in order to reach that strength. I forsee a potential CPac crosser and maybe (but hopefully not) a Hawaii threat in the distant long run. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  03:59, July 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * A C4 is now what the NHC predicts, even though winds are only at 45 knots. Knowing long-term NHC forecasts to be conservative in the long run, a C5 is a real possibility right now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:29, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernandra is looking so good it's scary. The winds are up to 55 knots, and she looks beautiful on the satellite. Thank god it's staying away from land. --Emma and V 13:08, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Emma, if I recall correctly, you are not allowed to edit on the Hypothetical Hurricanes Wikia. However, Hurricanes Wikia is an independent Wikia, and any restrictions you have there should not apply here. As for Fernanda, it is indeed coming together more rapidly, now that the surrounding shear is decreasing. The storm's pressure has also fallen to 1001 mbar (hPa), and as it moves towards the CPAC, it should continue intensifying. As a matter of fact, based on the latest NHC discussion, SHIPS shows a greater than 50 percent chance of a 45 kt wind increase in Fernanda over the next 48 hours. The NHC has accordingly adjusted the forecast peak up to 120 knots (140 mph), but if Fernanda can organize itself and intensify quick enough, we may see the first July EPAC Category 5 hurricane since Elida in 2002. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:21, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Just making sure mate, lol. Anyway, Fernandra already seems to be organizing. Hopefully it don't become no 155 mph Failicia. That would honestly suck, lol. Emma and V 15:27, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Gah, 2 edit conflicts. :/ Anyways, the long-range forecasts from the global models on this keep it south of Hawaii due to their subtropical ridge as I mentioned before, but the latest runs of the GFS and Euro don't take it that far south of the Big Island, and as a hurricane too, so it's possible Fernanda could bring some impacts to Hawaii down the road. Might be something to watch out for. Ryan1000 15:34, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope it keeps south of Hawaii, as we have had plenty of storms impacting the island chain or coming close enough to probably cause impacts over the past few years (Iselle, Ana from 2014 - Guillermo from 2015 - Darby, Lester, Madeline from 2016 to give examples) and they need a break. Anyway, this looks likely to be a C5 if it rapidly intensifies. Could this be the first EPac C5 since the record-breaking Patricia? ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:16, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Fernanda
After being the only storm of 2011 to not reach hurricane intensity, Fernanda has now just done so! The NHC has raised the storm's intensity to 70 knots (80 mph)/990 mbar (hPa) based on satellite estimates, but they note that Fernanda could actually have higher winds at the moment. With an eye possibly developing and shear's impact lessening on the hurricane, Fernanda has a huge potential to continue rapidly intensifying. SHIPS now shows a greater than 50 percent chance of a 45 kt wind increase within the next 36 hours, and the NHC has nudged Fernanda's forecast peak up again to 125 knots (145 mph). However, assuming an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) does not occur, the NHC warns that the hurricane could intensify even beyond these forecast winds, if not become a Category 5. Regardless, dry air and cooler SSTs should prompt Fernanda's weakening in about 72 to 96 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:03, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now it's up to 80 mph and down to 988 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:52, July 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * 100 mph/975 mbars. Fernanda is potentially on the verge of RI as it develops a small eye under a tight CDO. Ryan1000 13:18, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Fernanda
Up to 115 mph and 969 mbars with the latest advisory. She's exploding right now, might become a cat 4 as soon as tonight. Ryan1000 14:51, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

Fernandra aint playing! She already got the new do, and that eye too. Emma and V 15:48, July 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * She is rapidly intensifying right now. She has cleared out an eye in which is visible. This may have a chance to intensify into a Category 5 (unlikely). Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:37, July 14, 2017 (UTC)

Rapid intensification at its finest. Fernanda is just taking off. Currently a cat 3, and the NHC is predicting a cat 4. Leeboy100 Hello! 18:00, July 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * She did it. She's now a C4 at 115 kt/960 mbar. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:01, July 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * It is getting really powerful, and a C5 might actually be a real possibility before the weakening begins by late weekend/early next week. I hope it does become a C5. It's a fishspinner, so why not? ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  22:51, July 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernanda is a very small hurricane, like Patricia was, so as fast as Fernanda is strengthening, it may weaken just as quickly when it encounters unfavorable conditions. It currently is at 145 mph/947 mbars, but barring an ERC, it could easily make it to cat 5 sometime later today, since it still has some favorable conditions for another two days or so before cooler SST's take their toll on the tiny storm by mid to late next week. Ryan1000 04:44, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this intensifies into a Category 5, then it will be the 16th Cat. 5 hurricane in this basin and the first one of the basin since Patricia in 2015. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:47, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Damn, inner core convection appears to be warming. Looks like it's going to undergo an ERC, which will probably kill the intensification trend. Pressure up to 948 mb. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:40, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * The current intensity is at 140 mph/952 mbar and according to the Tropical Weather Discussion, it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. After recovery should occur later today, Fernanda has about another day or so to strengthen to a C5 before unfavorable conditions begin taking over. I'd give it something like a 25-30% chance of strengthening to a C5. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  17:14, July 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * The intensity is now down to 130 mph/955 mbar but expected to intensify later on. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:10, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernanda's eyewall appears to be clearing out, and I hope this is a sign that it will begin reintensifying shortly. Although the hurricane may not be able to attain Category 5 status, it still has a decent chance of reaching its peak intensity once more in the next couple days before another ERC and/or cooler water and drier air take its toll once again on the system. Motionwise, Fernanda is now expected to begin moving towards the WNW closer to the Hawaiian Islands, although it will likely not make it to the archipelago. On a side note, even though I realize this comment is off-topic, I would like to direct everyone's attention to a major modification in the intensity of Cyclone Winston from February 2016. It turns out that Winston was much stronger than what RSMC Nadi operationally reported. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:42, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernanda has continued weakening, as concentric eyewalls are still present in this system. As a result, the NHC has since lowered the hurricane's intensity to 110 knots (125 mph)/957 mbar (hPa). Fernanda still has a 24 to 48 hour-long window to regain intensity, but the NHC has lowered their secondary peak down to 120 knots (140 mph). Also, the hurricane is beginning to move to the WNW, and this motion should continue until the subtropical ridge takes over in a few days. Also, due to the effects of cooler SSTs, dry air, and increasing shear, Fernanda is now forecast to enter the CPAC as only a strong tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:13, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

(←)Now back to a category 4. 130 mph, 953 mb. And, something amazing has happened within the eye of the storm. The stadium effect is taking place, which has happened in some of the most intense cyclones on record: Ivan, Wilma, Patricia, Haiyan, etc. I feel like there is still a chance for it to become a category 5, but if it doesn't happen today or earlier tomorrow, that's it. Because the NHC is saying that this thing will fall apart once it hits colder water. Leeboy100 Hello! 13:01, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernanda has completed its first ERC. Also, this imagery may confirm the stadium effect; I can make out an eyewall, but Fernanda's center seems to be cloud-covered. Nevertheless, this may not be a guarantee that Fernanda will now become a Category 5. It is possible that the hurricane will undergo another ERC before conditions become unfavorable in another day or so. While the NHC does not forecast any additional reintensification from Fernanda, I will not be surprised if the hurricane's winds reach 120 knots (140 mph) again at the 2100 UTC advisory. On a side note, the NHC acknowledged that it is quite unusual to see a hurricane as strong as Fernanda where this system is currently active. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:24, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * The stadium effect could give it a boost, but the chances of it becoming a C5 are not that good. A miracle will have to happen over the next 24 hours before unfavorable conditions take over for it to become a C5. NHC doesn't even strengthen it past its current intensity anymore. At most, this might strengthen to its previous peak intensity, and a C5 is probably not going to occur. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  18:34, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come ON, I wanted to see her become a Category 5! Fernanda, take all the cheeky Nandos before it's too late! (Also, a Qantas Airlines flight flew inside the hurricane today :O) (I'm that Dutch guy who was on the betting pools, by the way.) 5.10.94.220 00:18, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernanda is weakening again. She is now downgraded to a Cat. 3 hurricane with the intensity down to 120 mph/960 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:19, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 125/956, but should begin degrading for good from here on out. Ryan1000 20:41, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * It never became a C5. :( Well, at least it still became a 145 mph C4, which is very impressive. Fernanda is forecast to enter the CPac on Thursday as a weakening TS. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:45, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 954 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:54, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Fernanda (2nd time)
Weakened to a Category 2 with the intensity down to 110 mph/967 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 04:28, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Now 105mph/972mb. Come ON, you need some more cheeky Nandos, girl! 5.10.94.220 22:57, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * This was at 100 mph when I checked NHC this morning, but it unexpectedly increased back to 105.  Gradual weakening should occur with Fernanda as it moves towards the CPac. Luckily, Hawaii may be completely spared from impacts (unless you count higher surf as an impact).
 * UPDATE: 100 mph/976 mbar now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:12, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to cat 1, 90 mph.990 mbars. Ryan1000 10:12, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

The cold water sure is taking it's toll on Fernanda, but if it makes it to Hawaii, it will once again reach warm water. What I'm wondering is, if it makes it that far, is there a chance Fernanda could restrengthen? Leeboy100 Hello! 20:08, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
As Fernanda begins to rapidly intensify, a new AOI has formed to the south of Mexico. As it moves WNWwards, it may have to contend with the cooler SST wake of Hurricane Eugene, although I am not sure if this will be a major impediment. Nevertheless, the chances of formation for the AOI are currently near 0% for the next 48 hours and 30% for the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:13, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's near 0/50 on the TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:37, July 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Currently 10/50. This should be Greg, but conditions are only somewhat conducive (as mentioned in the TWO). I hope for another hurricane, if it can do it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  22:54, July 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now 30/50. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:16, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 40/60. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:10, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * If anything develops from this, it will most likely be a tropical depression due to the horrible conditions developing. Still at 40/60. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:40, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, Steve, you may be confusing this AOI with the one below that appears to be trapped in Fernanda's circulation. SSTs in the vicinity of this system still appear favorable despite Eugene's recent passage through there, and shear will decrease to under ten knots in the direction towards which this system is moving. This AOI probably still has an opportune window to become at least a tropical storm, if not a weak hurricane. Chances of formation have increased to 50% for the next 48 hours and 70% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:30, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested, still at 50/70. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:52, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * 97E is slowly but surely coming together. However, this invest will be facing unfavorable conditions such as decreasing SSTs, as Jeff Masters writes in his blog. While 97E may not become as strong as the past three storms, its chances of formation have nevertheless increased to 60% for the next 48 hours and 70% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:49, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually Andy, I wrote my previous post on the 14th soon before that other AOI even ever popped up on the TWO. And the one near Fernanda never reached 10/50. Anyway, conditions are not particularly conducive at all for 97E. I expect a TS or minimal hurricane at most, but even a hurricane could be really pushing it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  18:26, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Increased to 70/80. It has a shot of becoming Greg. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:58, July 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80/90 now. Here comes Greg. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:11, July 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven-E
Now a TD. Not expected to become much more than a weak TS (at least for now). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:39, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Even though it's poorly organized, it could intensify into a TS in about 6 hours. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:41, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Greg
Now named. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:19, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Greg has weakened with the latest advisory. Down to 1007 mbar from 1006 mbar. Doubt that this storm will last much longer than Friday. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:01, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 50 mph/1003 mbar. This could become a minimal hurricane at the very most before it interacts with Eight-E. NHC forecasts a strong TS. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  03:03, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't expect a hurricane from this as it's following in the outflow of Fernanda (and 8-E), which used up all the warm water here, but it could become a strong TS. Ryan1000 10:12, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * It just weakened to 40 knots, but looks like it's reintensifying on satellite. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:36, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Mexico
A newly formed AOI is at 10/30. We may see Hilary by next week or so. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:16, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 10/20. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:26, July 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised that the NHC is even mentioning this system in their TWOs. This AOI is effectively tangled in Fernanda's circulation and may simply be absorbed into the hurricane's more dominant circulation. Even if that does not occur, the AOI's proximity to Fernanda will somehow handicap it, be it shear (notice the 25 knot value just to the north of the AOI) or cooler SSTs. In short, I am not expecting much from this AOI. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:22, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/30. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:23, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * This AOI will soon be facing a lot of shear, despite now being located farther from Fernanda's circulation. I am still not expecting any major development from this system, unless it can persist through these unfavorable conditions. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:40, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * The AOI's chances of formation are now 30% for the next 48 hours and five days. There are still a couple of days left before the system reaches more unfavorable conditions. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:51, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * If it can persist, expect nothing more than a weak name-waster. I don't think this will even develop at all. Remember 94E? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:30, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Increased to 50/50. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:58, July 16, 2017 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Invested and up to 60/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:10, July 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * If it develops during the next day or two when conditions are still favorable enough, I hope it is just a weak TD at most. Because it would be an extreme name thief if it went beyond TD strength. This could also just pull off a 94E and not develop at all. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:37, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 70/70. Hope this forms. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:30, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80/80. This is probably going to steal a name and become TS Hilary tonight. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:17, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E
Just formed and expected to become Hilary in the next advisory. It looks like it might not steal a name after all. T G  2 0 1 7 15:04, July 18, 2017 (UTC)

Who thinks that when this storm is called "Hillary", Don is active at the same time? Wish that can happen. 5.10.94.220 22:54, July 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Just like I said to Greg, even though it's a poorly organized TD, it's forecasted to be a TS later on. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:56, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now no longer forecast to become a TS. :( Wind shear is really attacking this depression, and I hope the name Hilary is saved for the 0/50 system currently on the 5-day outlook. This depression, in the event it does somehow strengthen to a TS, would only be a major name stealer on the scale of Failicia or even worse (that is a nickname some of us like to use for Felicia of the 2015 Pacific hurricane season). The discussion and models predict a major Fujiwhara that could end up with either this or Greg as the dominant system (I personally think Greg will dominate). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  03:09, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southeast of Mexico
Yet another one just formed, it's near 0% (48 hours) and 20% (5 days) as of for now. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:58, July 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now at 0/30 on the 5-day TWO. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:11, July 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is most likely to be Hilary, unless 98E steals a name. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:41, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:25, July 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now to 0/50. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:53, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Due to 8-E's current real struggle with the Great Shear Monster, I expect Hilary to come from this instead. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:14, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's appeared on the 2-day TWO at 10/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:35, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southeast of Mexico 2
Yes, another one now at 0/20 on the 5-day TWO. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:35, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:


 * 1) Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
 * 2) Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
 * 3) Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
 * 4) Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.
 * 5) Eugene - ~0% - Eugene defied the odds and became a major hurricane, albeit for a short timeframe. However, the only impacts thus far have been heavy surf in Baja California and Southern California, and it is not like those areas are not accustomed to such events.
 * 6) Fernanda - TBA - Still Active

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 15:28, July 13, 2017 (UTC))

Steve's Retirements
Alrighty. I will do mine

(Retirement colors: <font color="#006">-∞% , <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) ''' (Notes: A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely, used for either the best possible win storms or the worst possible failures. Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)). The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower.)


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#F20">D- - A weak failure and a fishspinner, but saved from getting an "F" or lower by the fact that it was the earliest named storm ever in the EPac zone.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#0A4">10%, <font color="#F00">F - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#068">2.5%, <font color="#A00">F- - Even weaker than the above two storms (this was 40 mph vs. 45 for the others). Retirement is about out of the question, as this was less destructive than Beatriz and caused no deaths. This would be Z--(x∞) had it not done something.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#02C">0.01%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Somewhat exceeded expectations in terms of intensity but never made C2.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#068">A- - Fishspinner that barely made major hurricane status, but tried its best.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:02, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
<p style="font-weight:normal;">I'll do mine right now.

<p style="font-weight:normal;">50% or more: Italics Ok, here we go: <p style="font-weight:normal;">That's all for now folks. Ciao mates! Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:26, July 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian: 0%- A weak off-season storm that is a fishspinner. It holds the record for the earliest storm in the Epac. It didn't impact any land so this one's going to 2023.
 * Beatriz: 7.5%- Impacted Mexico and caused 7 deaths and also $3.9 million dollars. But it's most likely going to not be retired.
 * Calvin: 1%- Weaker than the last two storms, Calvin almost hit the same area as Beatriz. Damages unknown but it caused no deaths.
 * Dora: 0.01%- It exceeded the expectations of intensity. Damages are minimal but again, it caused no deaths.
 * Eugene: 0%- Yet again like Dora, it exceeded the expectations. Bought waves to Baja California and SoCal but nothing else than just being a fishspinner.
 * Fernanda: TBA- Currently active.
 * Greg: TBA- Currently active.