Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools. 10L.NONAME 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
New invest.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  17:10, July 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gone. Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:15, July 2, 2012 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Probably not going to develop.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:54, July 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gone.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  13:31, July 14, 2012 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
Looks subtropical. Cyclone10 E-Mail  13:31, July 14, 2012 (UTC)

TCFA issue here comes the next name storm for this basin.Allanjeffs 05:52, July 15, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08W
Now a TD.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  18:55, July 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * Starting to look better now. Cyclone10 E-Mail  05:04, July 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Likely won't get too strong, but South Korea needs to watch out for flooding from future Khanun. Ryan1000 06:10, July 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Khanun
Now a TS.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:42, July 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * And now a STS.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:59, July 17, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Khanun
And gone.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  17:29, July 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * 88 deaths in North Korea. Cyclone10 E-Mail  22:02, July 29, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi:Remnants of Daniel
If it does make it... Cyclone10 E-Mail  23:06, July 15, 2012 (UTC)


 * It made it into the basin, but it's not going to do anything. Might even be absorbed by the ITCZ in the next 6 hours or so. Supportstorm (talk) 07:36, July 17, 2012 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
The same tropical wave that Khanun was originated from.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:35, July 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gets the name Ferdie from PAGASA. Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:17, July 20, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09W
Still unorganized, but upgraded.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  23:30, July 20, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Vicente
Upgraded. Expect it to head towards Haninan Island as a minimal typhoon over the next few days. Ryan1000 13:12, July 22, 2012 (UTC)

Typhoon Vicente
Upgraded. Might be a big flood threat. The Hong Kong area will get a soaking from this typhoon, but not anything severe windwise. Ryan1000 13:29, July 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep. Storm warning No. 8. Cyclone10  E-Mail  15:02, July 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's rolling hard - has a well defined eye. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:56, July 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wow, the JTWC has raised the winds to 140 mph. Supportstorm (talk) 18:40, July 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Macau will receive the brunt of the storm.Allanjeffs 20:14, July 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's making landfall at the moment as a weak category four typhoon. Should begin to rapidly weaken. Supportstorm (talk) 21:13, July 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * It has made landfall. Cyclone10 E-Mail  01:15, July 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Woah, I didn't expect it to intensify that rapidly. It's not every day we see a category 4 storm make landfall in that part of China, especially in July. Another such storm was Typhoon Hagupit in 2008, but it was at a different time of year, when the WPac peaks. Ryan1000 12:32, July 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wow, I didn't expect that Signal No. 10 was raised in Hong Kong yesterday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:50, July 24, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Vicente
And only the was updated.-- Cyclone10  E-Mail  23:08, July 24, 2012 (UTC)

Vicente is starting to die out now. I just can't believe how lucky China was from this storm. Vicente intensified into a category 4 typhoon from a category one typhoon in only a time span of 6 hours. Even 12 hours before it reached it's 140 mph peak, there were hardly any signs of it rapidly intensifying. Vicente was a nightmare that very nearly came true. Had he made landfall just 50 miles farther northeast, Vicente would have made a direct hit on Hong Kong during overnight hours as an RI'ng category 4 typhoon! That would have made this storm one of the worst typhoons to hit China, at least the worst since 1975's Nina, the second deadliest typhoon in history, after the 1881 storm in Vietnam. Hong Kong only got the outer edges of Vicente, but in my history of forecasting storms, I can't imagine any storm that got closer to causing a massive catastrophe than this typhoon. Thank god it didn't happen. They got lucky from this one. I'm fearing a bad typhoon season is to come. Ryan1000 12:26, July 25, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Vicente
Good thing that no serious damage happened.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:01, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
New invest. Cyclone10 E-Mail  17:29, July 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * TCFA. Cyclone10 E-Mail  23:59, July 27, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10W
And now a TD.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:08, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Saola
Now Saola. PAGASA upgraded the LPA to a TD, now named Gener. -112.201.178.253 12:41, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

It's gonna bring some flooding rains as it heads slowly northwest, probrably reaching Taiwan late next week as a category 2 or 3 storm. Ryan1000 14:03, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

Saola is getting some really cold cloud tops.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:10, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

it looks like ts Matthew of 2010 and Saola is one of the biggest is tropical cyclones I had ever see.Allanjeffs 18:53, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like I was right...cat 2 to 3 expected. And big too. Very big, which means lots of flooding for Taiwan. Hopefully not as bad as Morakot 3 years ago, which was one of the worst typhoons in Taiwan's history. Ryan1000 18:15, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

Typhoon Saola
75 mph.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:22, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
Another one. Cyclone10 E-Mail  17:20, July 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gone.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  23:59, July 27, 2012 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
And another. Medium chance.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  23:59, July 27, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Damrey
That was fast. Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:38, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

This is also the first WPac name that has been used 3 times since the start of the century. We're recycling the list from row 1 again, or for the third time. When Damrey was used in 2000, it was one of the strongest WPac storms ever, and the strongest in May since 1958. Fortunately, it didn't affect land. Hopefully this Damrey won't either. Ryan1000 21:32, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

I predict a STS out of this. And it's exciting to restart the lists! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:50, July 28, 2012 (UTC)

Unfortunately, it seems Damrey could race westward and hit southern Japan, then China. Hopefully it won't be too strong when it does so. Ryan1000 18:18, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

Now forecast to be a typhoon.Allanjeffs 07:44, August 1, 2012 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
New invest. Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:06, July 29, 2012 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Should be absorbed by Saola.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:06, July 29, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Here's my predictions: Cyclone10 E-Mail  22:06, July 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths.
 * Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass.
 * Mawar - <10% - Not so much damage created.
 * Ambo - 5% - Probably not.
 * Guchol - 35% - 27 deaths and evacs, but Talas didn't retired last year, so this shouldn't either.
 * Butchoy - 0% - Didn't/barely affect(ed) the Philippines.
 * Talim - 15% - Only some crops.
 * Carina - 0% - No.
 * Doksuri - 40% - Not that much.
 * Dindo - 30% - Not sure that's enough to make the name retire.
 * Khanun - 50% - Lots of damage in DPRK.
 * Enteng - 0% - No effects.
 * Vicente - 45% - Less damage than I thought.
 * Ferdie - 30% - Wasn't that bad.
 * Saola - ?
 * Gener - ?
 * Damrey - ?


 * Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC)

Mine:

JMA: PAGASA:
 * 1) Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme.
 * 2) Sanvu - 0% - No.
 * 3) Mawar - 1% - I doubt it.
 * 4) Guchol - 5% - Yes, there were some effects, but not that bad.
 * 5) Talim - 10% - Another possible one, but not that likely.
 * 6) Doksuri - 25% - More damaging then Talim, so it has a possible chance.
 * 7) Khanun - 3% - South Korea might consider this damaging, but I don't.
 * 8) Vincente - 40% - A scare for Hong Kong, but it could've been much worse.
 * 9) Soala - TBA - Still Active
 * 10) Damrey - TBA - Still Active
 * 1) Ambo - 2% - Some effects, but the Philippines has seen much worse.
 * 2) Butchoy - 0% - Had no effects.
 * 3) Carina - 0% - No Cosme here.
 * 4) Dindo - 4% - I still doubt dindo will go.
 * 5) Enteng - 0% - Had no Philippine effects.
 * 6) Ferdie - 2% - Minor Philippine effects.
 * 7) Gener - 1% - Some moderate effects in the Philippines.

-- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine:

JMA: PAGASA: - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:54, July 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 1% - Very little chance.
 * Sanvu - 0% - No.
 * Mawar - 0% - No chance.
 * Guchol - 20% - Has small chances of retirement.
 * Talim - 0% - I doubt it.
 * Doksuri - 5% - I don't think so.
 * Khanun - 60% - Lots of damage and deaths in DPRK, maybe a candidate for retirement. I didn't expect that to happen though.
 * Vicente - 50% - Wow, shocked me a lot when intensified to a Category 4, but has less damage. Though damage is considerably light as of now, China or Hong Kong may request Vicente to be retired. So it's a 50/50 for me.
 * Saola - ? - Still active.
 * Damrey - ? - Still active.
 * Ambo - 0% - No.
 * Butchoy - 0% - I really doubt it.
 * Carina - 0% - No damage in the Philippines.
 * Dindo - 0% - I don't think so.
 * Enteng - 0% - Barely affected the Philippines.
 * Ferdie - 0% - Not that much damage.
 * Gener - ? - Still active.

Well, now that we have quite a few storms, here's mine: What an amazing year it's been thus far. Hopefully it won't get much worse. Ryan1000 12:29, July 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Pakhar - 5% - Nothing too severe.
 * Sanvu - 0% - Not a chance.
 * Mawar - 0% - As with Sanvu.
 * Guchol - 10% - I won't say it did nothing, but if Talas wasn't retired last year for 73 deaths and 600 million in damage, Guchol doesn't stand a chance.
 * Talim - 0% - Nah.
 * Doksuri - 1% - Won't say it was a complete fish, but still no retirement here.
 * Khanun - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Vicente - 55% - It was destructive and it has a shot of retirement, but the thing that shocks me most about Vicente is how much worse it could've been. This was probrably the closest call China has seen in a long time.
 * Saola - ?? - Currently no damage, but we'll wait until next week to see what she might do.
 * Damrey - ?? - As with Saola, but I think it'll probrably remain a fishie.