Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season/Florence

AOI: Off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of Africa later this week according to the 5-day TWO. 0/20 for now. Send Help Please (talk) 10:22, August 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/30. For a past few days, models show multiple storm forming at the start of September in the MDR, and one on the Gulf.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:23, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * GFS model is showing a hurricane with pressures in the 970s. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:31, August 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * For now, I'd take the models with a grain of salt. The Atlantic's MDR region has been very inactive over the past weeks and I'd be surprised if there was a burst at the start of September. Hopefully we do see Hurricane Florence though, to make up for its 2012 incarnation. At least it seems like some activity is on the horizon, as long as it means no land will be threatened. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:41, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. Send Help Please  (talk) 11:51, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/60, and this should be invested anytime now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:19, August 29, 2018 (UTC)

Both of the global models develop this into Florence down the road, but recurve it out to sea before hitting the U.S, let alone Bermuda (unlike the 2006 Florence). Also, if it doesn't become Florence before September, we'll only have a two-storm August, both storms of which were weak, short-lived fishspinners in the far north Atlantic, which would the quietest August regarding ACE in 21 years, since 1997. Ryan1000 21:27, August 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 40/70, and I'm still suprised this hasn't been invested.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     00:56, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Florence is coming. 60/80, but why is this thing still not invested? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:03, August 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * That's probably because it's still over land, but this seems like a poor excuse. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:19, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Okay, it is finally invested. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:33, August 30, 2018 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six
Now a Tropical Storm Warning for Southern Cape Verde. 30mph/1007mb Nickcoro (talk) 15:07, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Potential tropical cyclones are actually numbered like depressions are, I learned that from last year when PTC 10 was actually 10L, so this is 06L, though it'll probably be Florence soon. Due to the northernly position of this storm, it should remain away from any major landmasses down the road, apart from maybe Bermuda (and of course Cape Verde). Ryan1000 15:36, August 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 90/90, and fingers crossed Cape Verde makes it through nice and easy. By the time I wake up tomorrow morning, I hope to see it be Florence. Finally we are seeing something develop in the MDR... This looks to become a classic Cape-Verde hurricane down the road, and hopefully it will avoid land (except the CV islands). ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:35, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Finally a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:55, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence
And now this has been named Florence. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:21, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane strength is no longer in the forecast, but it could still happen down the road. Ryan1000 16:58, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, only little strengthening is forecast for now. NHC says that Florence is currently over somewhat cool waters and light shear, but that should flip to warmer waters but higher shear. These factors will limit strengthening, but I still won't be surprised if Florence can pull off hurricane intensity. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, September 2, 2018 (UTC)

SST's aren't too bad actually, just about 80 degrees Fahrenheit, but the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) isn't giving Florence much of a break in terms of dry air, not now or down the road. Bad news, however, is if Flo doesn't get as strong as a hurricane, then she could, as indicated by the 00Z run of the Euro yesterday, end up moving farther west towards the U.S. eastern seaboard or Atlantic Canada. So hoping for Flo to get stronger sooner may actually be a good thing, as that means she'll be more likely to be a fishspinner that'll recurve northeast down the road. Ryan1000 05:33, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is changing little in intensity, and nothing interesting is expected to come out of this storm until 120 hours, when it'll enter more favorable conditions such as warmer waters and lower shear. I hope Florence can try its hardest to lessen the chance of it being a threat to the U.S. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:00, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Florence is ingesting some dry air as we speak from the SAL and SST's, though not frigid, are less than ideal for a hurricane to form. Flo is also a fairly small storm like Beryl earlier this year, so she's vulnerable to dissipating to even slight changes in the environment around her. But that tiny size could also come in her favor and cause her to RI later in the forecast period, like how Beryl unexpectedly became a hurricane in the MDR. I just hope it happens sooner rather than later, because if Florence does RI down the road but doesn't do so fast enough, Flo could be a serious threat down the road to the U.S. or to Bermuda. The current run of the GFS takes Florence north and east of Bermuda but eventually takes her to a landfall in Newfoundland, but the Euro has doubled down on their previous forecast and now makes Florence a 955 mbar category 3 storm heading straight for the mid-Atlantic states or New England. While it's 9 days ahead, the Euro is still typically the more reliable model between it and the GFS. I'm hoping the GFS is right on this one, because we don't want Florence to be a severe storm for the east coast, especially after the beating the U.S. saw from last year on the Gulf coast and northeastern Caribbean Islands. Ryan1000 05:39, September 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Flo is now strengthening slightly, up to 65 mph and 997 mbars, but shear is expected to keep her in check the next day or two, plus the storm still has some dry air to deal with. The Euro is still insistent on Florence heading farther west towards a U.S. landfall, but the GFS wants to turn Florence northward, though the latest 12Z run takes her slightly closer to Bermuda than before. Flo is still a storm to watch out for. Ryan1000 16:07, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Considering how full of it the GFS is being with Gordon. I am more inclined to believe the Euro in regards to Florence. --Whiplash (talk) 17:12, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence now 70/995 per latest advisory, just below hurricane strength, however, the NHC cone still has Florence staying as a TS, though that may be unlikely.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     20:39, September 03, 2018 (UTC)


 * A bit surprised Florence is already near hurricane intensity, but contrary to the NHC forecast, I won't be too surprised if it intensifies 5 more mph to briefly reach hurricane strength before it encounters less favorable conditions. After 5 days, Florence should certainly become a hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:37, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

I actually think the GFS may get the track of Flo right, but they're being too aggressive on the intensity of the storm on it's projected track; the current run projects a 920 mbar storm moving right north of Bermuda before turning northeast out to sea or towards Newfoundland. I doubt Florence will get that powerful, but that general track may be accurate down the road, unless Florence stays weak or weakens faster and stays further south than the current forecast. I don't buy for a second that Flo will move west-southwest by the time she reaches Bermuda and eventually hit Jacksonville or Cape Canaveral, Florida as a 971 mbar storm as the Euro currently shows. If Flo does reach or threaten the U.S. east coast, it'll be from the southeast (passing through or just north of the Bahamas) if she stays weaker. Ryan1000 05:16, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Still below hurricane strength, but expected to finally become a hurricane by the end of the forecast (Sunday). Bermuda may still need to prepare for this one, as Florence may pass close to the island. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:46, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence
Finally. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:41, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Flo could weaken to a TS soon due to shear, but she's forecast to regain category 1 strength by the time she reaches a point near Bermuda late in the forecast period. Ryan1000 15:50, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I am concerned about what the strong high pressure system over New England could do to Florence. If Florence is weak enough, the high pressure system may bring Florence towards the East Coast, where some models explodes Florence, while other models explodes Florence early enough to influence the two high pressure systems (one on NE and another near Europe, and put Florence out to sea. This is too early to know for sure but its something to note.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     16:54, September 04, 2018 (UTC)
 * Winds increased to 85 mph, pressure down to 984 mb. However, Florence is still expected to weaken back to a TS in the next few days/hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, September 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now an 85 kt/976 mbar Category 2 and forecast to maintain hurricane strength for the rest of the forecast period. Chris might not last much longer as the season's intensity champion at this rate. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:51, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, looks like Flo did what Beryl couldn't do, and got stronger in the open Atlantic. This means Flo could recurve sooner, assuming she maintains this intensity, but Bermuda still may need to watch out. Ryan1000 04:19, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Florence
Incredible strengthening from Florence in the face of marginal conditions. Up to 105kt/961mb. Kiewii 12:50, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * One could say Florence is a well-oiled machine ;D go, Flo, go! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Will be eagerly anticipating the next runs of the GFS and Euro with the strengthening that wasn't expected to see if they wildly steer her back out to sea. If they don't start to do so in the next few runs time to start getting a bit more concerned by this system. Florence is wildly unpredictable and also no matter where she goes her influence could impact the rest of the development of the hurricane season. Seen some discussion that if she were to make a landfall the perturbations in the atmosphere could create enough windshear across the basin to seriously impede development for the remainder of the season. The Atlantic is now the Florence show. --Whiplash (talk) 15:26, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a 115 kt/953 mbar Category 4 per Tropical Tidbits/ATCF. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, Flo is really defying her forecast expectations, if this keeps up she might maintain major hurricane intensity despite marginal conditions over the next few days. Bermuda is still potentially in the firing line of Flo though, hopefully she misses the island down the road. Ryan1000 19:57, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Wow. So far, Florence is my favorite Atlantic hurricane. Such an overperformer. Just don't affect Bermuda please.

UPDATE: She is now officially a Category 4. All seasons, from 2014 to 2018 have seen at least one Category 4 now. (Gonzalo, Joaquin, Matthew, Nicole, Harvey, Irma (peaked as C5), Jose, Maria (also C5)). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:34, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * The new cone shows Florence briefly weakening below major hurricane status due to shear, and then restrengthen back to a major hurricane. However, with Florence over performing the NHC, who knows what other surprises Florence pulls up her sleeves. Anyways, with Florence this strong, a curve away from the US East Coast is getting more likely, but not ruled out. In the other hand, Florence may still be a threat to Bermuda in the coming days.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:05, September 05, 2018 (UTC)


 * Three fun facts:
 * Florence is the first Atlantic hurricane bearing a name from List IV to reach Category 4 intensity since Keith in 2000.
 * At the 5am September 4 advisory, Florence was forecast to be a 55-kt TS at 1800 UTC September 5. Florence exceeded that forecast by 60 kts.
 * According to this tweet, Florence has reached Category 4 intensity farther northeast than any other Atlantic hurricane on record. (Which would explain why it seemed so odd to see a Category 4 hurricane in Florence's current location...)
 * --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:14, September 5, 2018 (UTC)

Depends exactly on how "northeast" is defined; in that tweet he states Flo was the farthest northeast an Atlantic storm did so while east of 50W, a fairly specific parameter. Ellen of 1978 reached cat 4 intensity just south of Newfoundland, which could be considered farther northeast than Flo's current position, though Flo is certainly the farthest northeast cat 4 in the tropical Atlantic (just south of the tropic of cancer, 23.5 degrees north). Ryan1000 00:50, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also, the high pressure system over Canada right now may end up forcing Florence farther west instead of turning her out to sea as we might hope; the current 18Z run of the GFS makes Florence a 953 mbar strong category 3 storm hitting Virginia and Delaware before turning northeast just south of Long Island and out to sea, that would be a first in the reliabe track record, while the 12Z Euro takes Florence in a similar direction, but they're currently not caught up with Flo's unexpected intensity jump; also they pull Flo offshore before making landfall in the Mid-Atlantic. Both of them take her south of Bermuda though, but this storm has already been a very tricky storm to forecast intensity-wise, so all of the projected tracks by the models should be taken with a grain of salt as well. Ryan1000 01:59, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

11 PM advisory downs Flo to 125/956, and forecast track now goes south of Bermuda, but it's still too soon to tell the long-term track of Flo. Ryan1000 03:05, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I'm really surprised Florence RI'd in only marginal conditions! I swear, when I looked at NHC this morning, I was astonished... to say the least. A C4 there is very unusual, and like others have said, it's the furthest northeast C4 ever recorded. Hopefully it stays out to sea... especially due to the uncertain forecast, currently I fear for Bermuda and possibly the East Coast. If Florence heads into Bermuda straight-on as a major hurricane, we could be dealing with a re-Fabian of sorts, and we don't need another U.S. disaster especially after last year. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:20, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

If anyone wants nightmare fodder go look at the GFS's landfall scenarios. Most of them involve some sub-900mb storm hitting Bermuda, the Carolinas, or Virginia. (Obviously not going to happen tho.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:29, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I guess this would be a good time to remind people to... Beware the first storm of September!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:53, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

It's been a while since Eric's adage last came into effect...I believe Ike of 2008 was the last time that happened. Irma would've done that last year if it formed slightly later too, and if some of the recent runs of the GFS or Euro come to pass, Florence may do that too. Hopefully not though, if a major hurricane hits the mid-Atlantic...I can't imagine how destructive it would be. Bermuda also isn't completely out of the woods either. Ironically, the 06Z GFS run today actually keeps Flo offshore of the mid-Atlantic while the Euro's doesn't, but that run of the GFS also shows Florence becoming a 938 mbar category 4 storm directly hitting Bermuda, hopefully that doesn't happen. Ryan1000 12:18, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (2nd time)
Down to 90 kts/975 mbar. Ryan, Jose also came close to verifying Eric's adage last year; it would have done so if effects in the Leewards or along the U.S. East Coast had been as severe as they could have been. Eric's adage operationally verified in 2011 with Lee, but a storm was determined in post-analysis to have sneaked in just a day before Lee. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:58, September 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Eric mentioned that post-season 2011 storm when he was last here in 2012 while Michael was active, though Lee would've otherwise done that, and Jose...was close, but no cigar. Also, had Jose been worse last year (or had Ophelia struck the Azores as a major hurricane), 2017 would've been the first year to have 3 consecutive retired names. 2016, two years ago, also came close to doing that (Matthew, Nicole, and Otto), but the worst of Nicole missed Bermuda just slightly to the south. Florence may be a close call for Bermuda this time around, just like her 2006 incarnation, which formed and approached Bermuda at almost this exact same time 12 years ago. Ryan1000 15:20, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to a Category 1 per latest STWO, now at 80/989.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:39, September 06, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence (2nd time)
Down to TS intensity, 70 mph and 993 mbars. The projected track for Flo has shifted well south of Bermuda at this point, but even though Bermuda might be out of the woods if that happens, Florence could come much closer to the eastern seaboard down the road if she follows this track. The 18Z GFS still keeps Flo offshore, but many of the recent Euro runs take Flo to a landfall on the east coast. Previously it was Virginia and the mid-Atlantic, now it's Cape Hatteras, NC in the 12Z run. Ryan1000 03:11, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Getting increasingly frightened about this. The East Coast appears to directly be in Florence's path, and unless it does a sharp turn north and northeast, Florence will hit the coast as a potentially powerful monster. This feels like a re-Isabel, Fran, or 1933 Chesapeake–Potomac hurricane. Florence could very well become a retirement candidate (first or second, depending on how bad Gordon's totals are). Hopefully it can stay offshore, like a re-Earl (2010). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:50, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now we got a situation here. Florence is expected to re-intensify to a Category 4 at the end of the NHC forecast. She may either do a Joaquin/Edouard and just parallel the East Coast, or do a Fran/Floyd/Hugo and hit the Mid-Atlantic. Florence may get the boot this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:38, September 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Both of the global models now take this to a landfall on the eastern seaboard somewhere, the Euro does so near Charleston, South Carolina while the GFS does so in north Carolina and then moves Flo northward over Chesapeake Bay and into the Mid-Atlantic over Maryland, DC, and even into Pennsylvania, all while retaining formidable intensity. Since a sizeable hurricane has never moved northward through Chesapeake Bay before, I'm hoping the Euro is right this run around, because if the GFS verifies then Flo would be much worse. But if either model forecast comes to fruition, then our last original "F" name since 1979 will be as good as gone after this year. Isaac could be too, if TD 9 becomes Isaac while TD 8 becomes Helene. Ryan1000 00:55, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here's exactly how much model runs have shifted with Flo. It's just a question of how much further south they shift and eventually where they will converge. Not looking good so far. My opinion after looking at the trends and high pressure is the models will move a little more south over the weekend and zero in on a north Florida to Savannah landfall. As long as it stays north of Tampa, I'm gravy, but I can't say the same about the many others that will likely be impacted. I have a very bad feeling Florence will make Irene look like nothing. Owen 05:23, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is looking increasingly ominous for the East Coast. If it continues on current track, the Carolinas or even Georgia/north Florida will most likely be hit by Florence's ferocity. If the high pressure ends up being weaker than expected, it will try to recurve, but still hit up north in the New Jersey/Maryland/Delaware region. The chances this will stay out to sea is now extremely low. Florence will most likely be another Floyd/Hugo/Fran/Isabel/1933 C-P hurricane and may strike as a powerful major. Here comes a retirement candidate and likely one of the costliest hurricanes on record... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:22, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Flo has been recovering from the effects of shear over the past few hours and the small storm seems to be getting its act together by now. Unfortunately, despite being only a tropical storm, Flo's small size means rapid intensification is a very real possibility, and now Flo is expected to become a 145 mph category 4 monster taking direct aim at South Carolina. At this rate, Charleston could be directly in the firing line from this storm, and if Flo gets that powerful before striking the Palmetto state, then she could be even worse than 140 mph Hurricane Hugo 29 years ago in 1989. If that verifies, Flo would also be the first major hurricane to hit the Atlantic eastern seaboard of the U.S. since Hurricane Jeanne in 2004, and the first category 4 since Andrew in 1992. The NHC track is following the exact same course that the 00Z Euro projects, though the GFS still wants to take Flo recurving up into North Carolina and/or the mid-Atlantic states. Ryan1000 13:52, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * New NHC track is out, Flo is still a strong TS, but will likely become a hurricane any time now, and Flo is now forecast to directly strike Wilmington, NC as a powerful 130 mph cat 4 storm, which would make it the first cat 4 to strike NC since 1954's Hazel hit near the SC/NC border. GFS has recently wanted to keep Flo just offshore, but the Euro is predicting a headlong landfall in the state, or South Carolina. Either way, Flo is definitely an increasingly dangerous storm that bears watching over the next few days. Ryan1000 05:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is now expected to make landfall at 120 mph, this could easily become the strongest hurricane to strike the state since Fran. Now is the time to prepare. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:43, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (3rd time)
Back to hurricane status. Florence is now forecast to peak at 145 mph. We now have a situation here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now at 85mph. NHC now predicting winds of up to 150 and some more models suggesting this could become a Category 5... I believe this would be the most northerly Category 5 ever if it holds out? Pretty sure this will be retired by this point. --Whiplash (talk) 21:01, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) Stronger as of the new 5 pm EDT advisory. 75 kts/975 mbars. Florence is now also forecast to peak at 150 mph before slamming into the Carolinas as a strong Cat 4, late Thursday or early Friday. I think it might be safe to say that we might be seeing the last usage of the only remaining original 'F' name. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:05, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence's rip tides have killed her first victim. RIP. 2 others badly injured. --Whiplash (talk) 21:51, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

As if things couldn't get any worse...forecaster Blake said in [https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/092053.shtml? the latest discussion] that Florence could stall just after moving ashore due to another ridge that could build over the Ohio river valley later this week, and if that happens we could see another Harvey-like megaflood, but this time in North Carolina instead of southeastern Texas. Florence could end up being North Carolina's most severe hurricane on record at this rate, and it would also be the first time on record in which a major hurricane hit the United States under this year's naming list...although Sandy was very bad in 2012, it wasn't an official major hurricane by Saffir-Simpson Scale windspeed. The only other major hurricane to hit Wilmington, NC since the sattelite era began was 120 mph Hurricane Fran 22 years ago in 1996. If Florence hits the city as a 140 mph category 4 as forecast, then she could be much, much worse. Ryan1000 22:23, September 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * A dear friend of mine moved down to Charlotte just a couple weeks ago. Needless to say, I'm starting to worry... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:40, September 9, 2018 (UTC)

I don't think Charlotte will be as severely impacted by inland flooding as much by Flo as other areas of the mid-Atlantic, but I just checked out Dr. Master's latest blog post on Flo, and he said that the inland flooding from this storm will likely extend far to the northeast of where the storm stalls after moving ashore, like with Harvey last year, but unlike Harvey, whose flooding was most extreme around the Houston metro area, Florence's rain would instead be extending into southeastern Virginia and possibly even northern Virginia, Maryland, and southeastern Pennsylvania. If the 06Z run of the GFS verifies, as stated in that blog post, then Florence could dump at least 20 inches of rain over southeastern Virginia and 10 or more inches of rain as far north as DC, Baltimore, and even Philadelphia. He's already talking about the possibility of Florence being "the Harvey of the eastern seaboard", but unlike southeastern Texas, if a Harvey-like megaflood struck the many densely populated cities of the mid-Atlantic, it would cause an unprecedented humanitarian crisis that would dwarf anything we saw last year or even in 2005. To add insult to injury, DC, Philly, and other parts of the mid-Atlantic had their wettest summer on record and the ground can't absorb any more water in some of those areas. This is looking really, really bad...Ryan1000 00:01, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 90/974, forecast to be a major tomorrow, and not only pick up speed but enlarge in size. Keep your eyes out... Ryan1000 03:25, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is extremely scary. I worry for everyone in the Carolinas and surrounding regions, like Dylan's friend, Bobnekaro, and anyone else from that region. This is going to be very bad if it hits as a C4, or god forbid... a C5. And considering the record rainfall that has already occurred there, this will just add insult to injury. This is going to get catastrophic... 😰 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:38, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Florence (2nd time)
...FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... 115 mph and 962 mbars as of the 11AM advisory. Forecast to make landfall or be very close to the NC coast as a 145 mph category 4 monster. This is looking really bad for Wilmington...and inland flooding could be worse if Flo slows down or stalls. Ryan1000 14:52, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * ...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...Just RI'ed to a Category 4 hurricane, now at 130/946. If this continues, a C5 is unfortunately, a possibility.  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     16:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

This is a really dangerous storm, the NHC expected a cat 4 from Florence 12 hours from now, but it looks like Flo is defying intensity forecasts yet again, but this time it's not a good thing. At all. If Flo becomes a cat 5, it's inevitable that Flo will be a strong cat 4 at her landfall in North Carolina, and it's expected to directly strike the city of Wilmington (approximately 282,000 people living in the metro area), which would have catastrophic results. Wilmington and other areas in North Carolina formerly suffered roughly 3.2 billion dollars in damage from Fran's 120 mph landfall there in 1996, but if Florence hits as a 145 mph or stronger storm, Fran would look like a mere historical footnote compared to Florence. The potential for Harvey-like flooding from Flo's expected stalled motion after landfall isn't any better, and if the worst of Flo's rainfall hits the multiple major cities of the upper mid-Atlantic (DC, Baltimore, Philly, Richmond, Raleigh, ect), then Florence's damage may rise to Katrina-like figures when all is said and done...lord help the people of the mid-Atlantic from this monster. Ryan1000 17:03, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

HOLY SH*T. A dropsonde has found cat 5 winds with Florence.

949mb (Surface) 220° (from the SW) 143 knots (165 mph)

It'll be interesting to see if this is actually materializing the way that is essentially the worst case scenario. Dropsondes measure instantaneous wind, not 1-min like the NHC does so I'm not quite sure if these winds are her true intensity as of yet, but she is rapidly intensifying nonetheless and there's nothing in her way besides a possible EWRC. I personally think she's headed for a 175 mph peak - as those winds are already seen in the 924 mbar levels of Florence. Owen 17:23, September 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now I am removing Florence as one of my favorite storms this year. (I'd reinstate her if and only if she doesn't hit land; highly unlikely for now though.) This is becoming a mix of Hugo, Fran, Floyd and Harvey, and maybe even Katrina and Sandy. If that data above verifies, the East Coast is almost certainly in the worst case scenario. We really won't have a Category 5 fishspinner again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:07, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * This storm is very bad.If the GFS runs come to fruition,this could dump 100+ Inches of rain on NC/VA. No.1 Mobile (talk) 18:16, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 939 mb, winds up to 140 mph. Still expected to peak at 150 mph. Now forecast to peak at 155 mph. May this storm do a last-ditch miracle... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:55, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * An ERC would be fantastic right about now. I live in western SC, so this storm has been the talk of the town as of late. Send Help Please  (talk) 21:01, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * An ERC is the last thing you need right now. An ERC would expand the storm and allows it to strengthen further.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:20, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nuts. Guess the only hope is for some miracle shear to just pop up out of nowhere, which will not happen. Looks like it's time for me to get a canoe and prepare for the imminent downpour. Also, I don't think anyone ever wants to see an NHC discussion begin with "Unfortunately, the models were right". Send Help Please (talk) 22:41, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

It's hard to admit that this could be a near-worst-case scenario, but it is rapidly looking that way. Given how Flo has defied expectations, I wouldn't be surprised if Flo becomes a 5 approaching the coastline, but it'll probably be a 4 at landfall. But regardless of the exact peak intensity of this thing, a 140-145 mph landfall near Wilmington is going to have catastrophic results. The Weather Channel is already forecasting at least 12 to 18 inches of rainfall over Raleigh, the capital of NC, and it could extend further north into Richmond, DC, and other major cities up the mid-Atlantic into next week. Florence has also been enlarging in size recently, so the hurricane could have a larger reach of rainfall and storm surge when she does move ashore. Ryan1000 00:58, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Also @Isaac, unfortunately, it looks like an ERC is taking place. That'll only make Flo bigger and wetter for North Carolina when she arrives, even if her winds aren't nearly as high. But, given SST's about 2 degrees C above normal, Flo would reintensify in a snap if this is confirmed in the 11 PM discussion. Ryan1000 01:39, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * One good thing about the ERC is that it may keep Florence weaker than it otherwise would be. But since the main cause of hurricane deaths are from flooding & storm surge, strength isn't as much as a concern compared to how it might bring devastating floods to the Carolinas and East Coast. Extremely frightening storm may re-RI to C5 intensity once the ERC is finished, and bring a doomsday scenario to the eastern seaboard. Lord help them... ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:14, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Um, the ERC looks like it's ending. Not good. Recon is approaching the center as I type this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:47, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence has gotten such an annular structure that once the ERC ends I see practically nothing from stopping Florence from going Category 5 later today. Got my next two days off work after today too so gonna spend all my time following this system. --Whiplash (talk) 11:35, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Florence is scaring the heck out of me. It is a much bigger storm now, and seems to be getting its act back together since the EWRC. It seems the Atlantic got tired of sparing the US from major hurricanes from 2005-2016, because this will very likely be the fourth major hurricane to make landfall in the US in the past two seasons. Leeboy100 Remembering those lost on 9/11, Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:37, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * And the new advisory just came out. Florence is restrengthening again. 140 mph/945 millibars. Predicted to get up to 155 mph on Wednesday evening. Leeboy100 Remembering those lost on 9/11, Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:43, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

The ERC that she underwent overnight not only made Florence annular in appearance but it also significantly enlarged the windfield of the storm, tropical storm-force winds now go a whopping 175 miles away from the center of Florence and hurricane-force winds go 60 miles out. Flo's annular structure looks similar to Hurricane Daniel in the EPac back in 2006, but Flo could get even stronger and is affecting land. A cat 4 landfall is almost inevitable at this point, and the tucked-back position of the area of North Carolina that Florence is striking will only worsen the effects of storm surge, and Flo's slowed motion after landfall from the high pressure ridge over the Ohio valley could lead to record flooding in the state, far worse than Floyd or Matthew. This is going down in the record books... Ryan1000 21:16, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hurricane warning issued for the northern South Carolina coast and the North Carolina coast. This will be catastrophic. Forecast continues to take it on the brink of C5, and it could very well reach that intensity as goes headlong into the Carolinas. Large-scale flooding especially from already saturated grounds, storm surge, extreme winds, etc. could make this become a historic cataclysm and the costliest storm EVER. It's becoming annular now?! Heck no! I have no words anymore... ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:18, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 130 mph. Forecast to reach 145 mph but will weaken to 100 mph once near the coast. Still a hurricane to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:59, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * If Florence stalls near the coastline, she might not be as powerful at landfall as earlier forecast, even moreso if Florence doesn't restrengthen to a stronger cat 4 later on today, but Flo's huge size means storm surge is going to be a severe threat no matter how strong she is at landfall in NC, and inland flooding too. Landfall location also shifted southward a bit to just north of the SC/NC border, but Wilmington is still in the danger zone. Ryan1000 10:54, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Florence is quite perplexing in the fact that her eye never really seems to stabilize enough for the RI to get going, this seems to be due to a never ending stream of ERCs. Not sure if this is good or bad as if it keeps up could lower the wind intensity at landfall. But the increased size of the storm will likely offset the benefits this would otherwise do to storm surge and ultimate damage outcome... --Whiplash (talk) 13:33, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Florence's pressure fell to 943 as of the latest advisory, also Flo has some dry air in her way which may be hindering intensification somewhat, but she's still forecast to hit 145 mph before weakening prior to her NC landfall. Ryan1000 14:18, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * These repeating ERC’s remind me of Irma last year. I don’t even know how many eyewall replacement cycles Irma went through before dramatically intensifying into a Category 5. Thankfully, the end result of Irma’s strengthening after the ERC’s is very unlikely with Florence. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 18:54, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * By the way, I forgot to mention in my last post. Florence has weakened to a Category 3. 110 kts/948 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 18:58, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

Pressure up to 949, winds down to 120 mph. Florence is about to stall off the coast. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:45, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Almost a C2 now... 115 mph. Still life-threatening though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:40, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * The Carolinas may see some relief from wind shear that is currently tearing at Florence. However, she is also about to go over the gulf stream and some convection has begun to reappear around the eye. Whether this can get organized and allow her to stay a major hurricane remains to be seen. Either way the now very expansive windfield will continue to make the surge more similar to that of a major huricane than its category would suggest not to mention the rain... --Whiplash (talk) 01:05, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Florence was entraining a bit of dry air before, but due to ERC's the storm has now expanded to almost 200 miles across, and hurricane-force winds go 85 miles out from the center, which could lead to a storm surge equivalent to Florence's category 4 peak before. Florence is starting to look like Isabel more than Hazel at this point, as both this and Isabel were giant-size hurricanes at landfall, but weaker than their initial peaks, and both storms had (or will likely have in the case of Florence) an inland flood threat that could be worse than the initial coastal impacts. Wilmington is still directly in the firing line for a near-direct hit from Flo, and she still has some time to reintensify a little bit today before hitting Wilmington as a 115 mph major hurricane sometime Friday morning or afternoon, or as a slightly weaker but still formidable category 2 storm. But the slowing motion of Florence near the coastline and high uncertainty in the track of Florence inland (hence why the cone is so wide) can be a big problem for inland areas of the Carolinas and possibly other areas in the upper mid-Atlantic. Especially if Florence stalls right after crossing the coast, since that means Flo will have less weakening from interaction with land and more moisture buildup from the ocean, leading to even more severe inland flooding than from a faster-moving storm like Isabel. Ryan1000 02:38, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Florence (4th time)
Weakening further. Cat 2 now. 110 mph/957 mbars. Still a dangerous storm. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 02:50, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 11 PM advisory is out, 110 mph and 957 mbars. Down to category 2 because of this, but some slight restrengthening is still possible before landfall. EDIT: Ninja'd. Ryan1000 02:51, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

A bit surprised it weakened this much. It might be because of the ERCs, large size and also NHC's discussion says that 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear was affecting Florence. Despite the weakening, no one there should even think about letting their guard down. This could still get catastrophic with flooding and stuff. A slowdown looks like it will occur after landfall, further worsening the flooding potential. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:43, September 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Flo is no longer forecast to re-intensify into a major hurricane before landfall in North Carolina, but a 100-110 mph category 2 with the huge size of Florence could still inflict serious damage to the coastline, and even more from inland flooding. The outer rainbands from Florence are already starting to reach the coastline of North Carolina. And the cone of uncertainty is still fairly wide after that, so this could move southwest into South Carolina, offshore, into Virginia, or many other scenarios. In any instance, the slowed movement of this large hurricane after landfall could cause a major inland flooding threat to the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic that could rival or exceed Floyd or Matthew, but hopefully not Harvey. Ryan1000 11:19, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * We still have some time to go and the latest microwave scans are showing that the eyewall is beginning to reorganize itself. There may be be the opportunity for a last minute strengthening back to Category 3. I do think Florence did get a little weaker since the last update though. All depends on how rapidly she reintensifies over the Gulf Stream and how slow she is going. Either way it will not have a great deal of impact on her effects. --Whiplash (talk) 14:46, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * And as I was typing that next advisory came out having wind down 5 more mph to 105. Presure is now 955 which is dropping. From here on out she will probably see some marginal intensification again up to landfall as her eye continues to rebuild. --Whiplash (talk) 14:48, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

3 PM update statement doesn't change the intensity but says Flo is moving to the WNW at 10, a slight change from her NW movement earlier. But it appeared Flo was moving in that direction in recent hours...Wilmington's likely to get a direct hit from Flo tonight or tomorrow morning, at either this intensity or as a slightly weaker 100 mph storm. However, I'd be a bit surprised if Flo ends up being a cat 1 at her landfall tonight. Ryan1000 19:25, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 5 PM advisory confirms 100 mph windspeed. Pressure stays at 955 though. Also, with Flo slowing down significantly, coastal flooding is already a problem from her TS-force winds, and rainfall is likely to be heavier in areas near the coast now. Ryan1000 20:52, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * The winds rose to 105 briefly before until they fell back to 100 as of the latest advisory. Florence also appears to be stalling just offshore, but will probably still creep closer to a landfall sometime tomorrow, and the stalling motion of Florence just offshore is not only leading to more heavy storm surge in certain locations along the North Carolina coastline, and heavy rainfall for inland flooding could build up into the landfall from this storm. --Ryan1000 02:40, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now a Category 1. 90 mph/956 mbars. Last time I can remember a Cat 1 having a pressure that low was Sandy. High winds and flooding already reported in parts of North Carolina. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 03:03, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Water rescues happening in New Bern, North Carolina right now, as a result of flooding from Florence. At the moment, it’s uncertain if the flooding there is a result of heavy rain or storm surge. Unfortunately, this is just the beginning. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 04:04, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * I agree, this is a bit like Sandy: low pressure for its wind speed and large size (but not as large as Sandy). Although it's now only a C1, wind speed never really matters when we're dealing with a large, slow-moving, extremely flooding system because floods cause the majority of all TC deaths, and no one staying there should ever let their guard down just because it's now a "measly" C1. C1 winds can still cause damage anyway, so that also helps my argument. The Carolinas are beginning to get the brunt of impacts, including storm surge, flooding, wind gusts, water rescues, etc. as it approaches landfall in the next hours. This will be a wild (and potentially catastrophic) ride... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:16, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Exactly. I feel the exact same way. People shouldn’t let their guards down with these kind of hurricanes, no matter what category it is. Also, it is now confirmed that the flooding that resulted in the water rescues I mentioned above were caused by storm surge, not flooding. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 04:41, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

1 AM advisory out. Winds remain 90 mph, but the pressure has actually dropped 2 millibars, down to 954. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 05:16, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

I’ve been mentioning water rescues in New Bern in my past posts. Well, the situation there is far more dire than I had thought. Apparently, the flooding there from storm surge and the continuous rain has resulted in the water rising to more than 10 feet resulting in 150 people needing to be rescued. Unbelievable. Huge storm surge is also occurring in other nearby areas as well, and there’s already 180,000 people without power in North Carolina alone. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 07:44, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

I actually messed up my last post. Those 150 people haven’t been rescued, they are awaiting rescue. However, 200 people have been rescued. So, that’s actually a total of 350 people who needed or are needing rescue in New Bern, North Carolina. My mistake, the numbers were right in front of me, but I misinterpreted what was being said because I’m getting tired since I’m up so late tracking this. I hope everyone stays safe. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 08:11, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Pressure has now risen to 958, and water levels are at least 7 feet above normal in Emerald Isle. Wilmington is going to be hit later today, sometime this afternoon probably. I expected Flo to slow down before landfall, but not by this much. Ryan1000 10:08, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall in North Carolina
And Florence has officially made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, NC. Florence will still get the boot after this, as she is now expected to become the wettest North Carolina hurricane/cyclone ever. Rainfall totals are expected to reach 40 inches. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:47, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pressure up to 964, winds down to 80 mph. Florence is now moving slowly – very slowly – to the west. Oriental, NC has already recorded 18.53 inches of rainfall from this storm. This is a (relatively) weaker combination of Floyd, Hugo, Isabel, Matthew, Hazel and Harvey, but also a very large one, much like Sandy. Regardless, this is bad for the Carolinas, just like how Mangkhut/Ompong is simultaneously doing right now in northern Philippines. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:23, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is becoming North Carolina's most destructive hurricane ever. Rainfall records are being broken as of the moment. Someone in the news (forgot if it was ABC or CBS) mentioned that a gauge in one of the towns in NC is already reaching Diane's 63-year record or Diana's 34 year-record ( I think it was actually 1984's Hurricane Diana that they were referring to; the storm affected Beaufort and eastern NC that year EDIT: Could have been either of the two as the reporter did not specify the year). In other news, Florence is now down to 75 mph as her pressure increases to 968 millibars, but this is just the beginning of The Carolinas' Harvey. Of course the worst-case scenario would be breaking Harvey's one-year-old record; hopefully it won't materialise. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:35, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Sadly, Florence has now become deadly upon landfall. 3 deaths have now been confirmed in North Carolina. A tree fell on a house in Wilmington, killing a mother and her infant child, and also leaving the father injured. A woman in Pender County died of a heart attack likely brought on by the storm. These aren’t the first deaths caused by Florence, there were two storm surge related deaths a few days ago, but these are the first to happen upon landfall. Hopefully the death toll doesn’t get too much higher. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 19:18, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence (3rd time)
Downgraded to a TS. Florence will get retired after this season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:44, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Ah, you beat me to the update by a minute. Leeboy100 Beware Florence’s Fury. 20:45, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * ...FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA... I love how Stewart felt compelled to start the latest advisory with this, lol. A little bit of humor in a bleak situation. Our last remaining 'F' name is toast. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:17, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Odd thing is, Florence is actually the name of a city there, though I wouldn't "go with the Flo" in this case. In any instance, I'd be surprised if Florence isn't a highly destructive storm when all is said and done; there's already reports of walls and roofs collapsing on even large buildings from Flo's prolonged winds and rainfall, and somewhat extensive surge. The biggest problem with this storm though, is that although it's not as strong as other east coast hurricanes, it's literally stuck just inland from the coast and can't move. The high pressure system over the Ohio River Valley that's been creating nice, sunny weather where I live is keeping Florence in a stationary position just inland to the west of Wilmington, over North Carolina, and Flo's proximity to shallow coastal waters and lack of mountains means her rains probably won't die out anytime soon, and rainfall flooding could be very severe in North Carolina because of that. According to Dr. Masters and Bob Henson's latest blog post, North Carolina's wettest hurricane (Floyd) brought about 24.06 inches of rain at its peak in the state, but if Flo continues to sit just inland over North Carolina without moving over the next few days (which I don't think has happened in North Carolina with a Cape-Verde type storm before), then Florence could easily break Floyd's record and be the wettest U.S. hurricane outside of Florida, Texas, or Hawaii, with 40 or more inches of rain possible. Ryan1000 00:56, September 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Just saw the latest blog post from Dr. Masters, and Florence's storm surge apparently broke multiple 1 in 100 year records in the areas of North Carolina that it struck, especailly Wilmington, Beaufort, and Topsail Beach, largely due to Florence's large size and sluggish movement that allowed the continuous buildup of surging water on the coastline, with winds of 48-64 mph being recorded for 12 straight hours from 8 AM to 8 PM yesterday (by UTC) in Wilmington. Not to mention the flooding rainfall threat that will likely exisst into the middle of next week. Ryan1000 01:35, September 15, 2018 (UTC)

Apparently Florence has surpassed Floyd's rainfall record. A report from The Washington Post says that 30.5 inches of rain fell at Swansboro, NC. If this continues, Lane and Harvey's records may also be broken by Florence. 11 dead so far, 7 of them in North Carolina. Florida and South Carolina recorded two deaths each. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, September 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * These rainfall totals are really getting insane at the moment. Although I'm still not sure if it will go as far as to break the records of Harvey and Lane. Its speed should start speeding up a bit tomorrow but rain in the Carolinas should continue for the next couple days, and the rain should become lighter as Florence starts slowly moving away. Florence should be retired after this year so say goodbye to the final remaining original "F" name. However, I'm going to wait until Florence dissipates before adding the retirement percentage and storm grade to my retirements section. A weird coincidence that Florence is affecting a town named "Florence" lol. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:44, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Florence may be moving west but the heaviest rainbands are still on the northeastern side of the storm, still stalling over southern North Carolina and likely still causing major flood damage to Wilmington and surrounding areas northeast of the city. Ryan1000 05:14, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence
And she's down to a TD. Rainfall and flooding threats continue. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:47, September 16, 2018 (UTC)


 * With regards to the storm you mentioned above A2.0, I think the media may have instead meant 1955's Hurricane Diane, which was 63 years ago, instead of 1984's Diana, both of which caused heavy flood damage in North Carolina, and the former caused over 150 deaths in New England and North Carolina only shortly after Hurricane Connie struck the state. The two names may be confusing. In any instance, Flo beat both of them, and Floyd too, in terms of rainfall in North Carolina. Fortunately, the heaviest rain finally seems to be dying down in the area around Wilmington. Ryan1000 16:08, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Most likely it would be Diane. Regardless, both Diana '84 & Diane were destructive, but not as severe as this one. NHC has already issued its final advisory for Florence, but WPC will continue to issue more advisories as Florence remains a flood threat. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:41, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

While the Wilmington area and other towns and cities to the northeast are slowly getting off the hook, Florence's rainfall could cause localized flash floods in the Appalachians when she reaches that area, per Dr. Master's latest blog post on Flo. The rainfall in some areas can be seen as similar to Harvey, since both this storm and Harvey slowed to a crawl upon their landfalls and the southwest-northeast shape of the Texas and North Carolina coastlines allowed for both this storm and Harvey to bring up a lot of tropical moisture from offshore to amplify their flood threats, though this won't be as destructive as Harvey since the area Flo is affecting isn't as populated as Houston and Flo was much weaker than Harvey at her initial landfall. But still, I'd be surprised if Flo doesn't end up in the top 15 or even top 10 costliest hurricanes for the United States when all is said and done, due to her severe flooding. Ryan1000 18:57, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence
Gone for good now. Say good-bye to the last original F name of all 6 lists (unless it regenerates, which some models are showing Florence pulling an Ivan, looping and regenerating). ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     20:50, September 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * I personally don't see that happening; assuming it doesn't do that, the worst of Flo is now over. Ryan1000 04:07, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope it doesn't do that because the U.S. has seen enough from this catastrophic storm. At last, say goodbye to the longest lasting name in Atlantic history, first used in 1953 (as well as the final original F name). Damages will most likely be enough for Florence to end up in the top 10 costliest on record once it's all said and done. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:07, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

Farewell to a fascinating yet very destructive storm. This may also be the last time that Florence will be used, one of the names used the longest in a single basin (if not the longest ever; I believe only PAGASA's Auring can rival it, although that name was first used 10 years after Florence.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:48, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * By the way, the damage totals is estimated to be at $17-22 billion. That makes Florence the costliest for the Carolinas, perhaps surpassing Floyd (for NC) and Hugo (for SC). While those totals seem to be relatively small compared to Harvey, Maria, Irma and Sandy, that still proves how damaging Florence was. She will definitely be gone from the lists after this year. 25 deaths so far. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:27, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Let's not archive this for at least two weeks, something might happen later on.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:58, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

The most commonly used storm name in the Atlantic isn't Florence, but Arlene from Atlantic list 3 (last year) which was used 11 times since 1959 and will be used again in 2023, I mentioned that in my retirement predictions last year in the Atlantic. Estelle from list 2 in the EPac ties Arlene, with 11 uses of Estelle since 1960. Florence has been used 10 times in the Atlantic (though it was also used 5 times in the EPac). A few other storm names on the old Atlantic naming lists were also used many times in the WPac, like Irma of last year. Ryan1000 12:27, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * I know, as Florence was not used in the Atlantic between 1964 and 1988. That is why I said the longest instead of saying it was the most used name. Anyway, Florence deserves to have her own archive, but as its effects still linger in the U.S., I second Dylan's suggestion. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:33, September 19, 2018 (UTC)

Well of course any name used since 1953 that would just get retired recently would have the longest history since it was first used in the Atlantic; Irene formerly held that record since it was also used in 1953 but retired in 2011, and if Dolly of list 6 gets retired in 2020 or later, it would beat Florence too. Though in total number of times used, Florence is a runner-up to Arlene/Estelle in the NHC's AOR (for a single basin, but if you combine the Atlantic and EPac uses of Florence, that would make 15 instead of 11). And since this was a significant and destructive storm, yeah, we'll leave this section up to discuss Florence's aftermath and post-storm implications for a week or two before archiving it by, say the start of October. And since August was inactive as heck this year, we'll put it into a mixed archive with September. Ryan1000 16:45, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * florence, take ur broken machine somewhere else and use it there. oh wait you aren't coming back bish --¡OIᗡ 'ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:37, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * And reiterating what Steve said in his retirement forecast section, damage totals from Florence has skyrocketed to $38 billion, surpassing Ike as the 6th costliest Atlantic hurricane. Florence will definitely be struck from List IV next spring. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:40, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, definitely. It might enter the top 5 once damage totals are finalized. BTW, would you guys mind if the other August storms are archived? Florence should get its own archive anyway. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:50, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

I mentioned above that August can be put together with September in a mixed archive by the start of October, because this year's August was so inactive that we can mix the two months in one archive. But Leslie and Kirk are still up right now. In about another week we'll archive Florence and August-September, and maybe keep up Kirk or Leslie if they're still active by then. Ryan1000 09:13, September 24, 2018 (UTC)