Forum:2016 Pacific typhoon season

Betting pools for this page

Well, it's 2016 in the WPAC's time zone, and it looks like 9C may move into this basin, giving us an early start. Welcome to the 2016 typhoon season! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:31, December 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * Gotta love how both CPAC and ATL could start faster than WPAC.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:39, January 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * Is it unusual that we have yet to see a single tropical cyclone in the WPAC in the middle of May? Jdcomix (talk) 16:08, May 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-W
there was a 01W in late May. --  HurricaneOdile |  insert message here ×  edits  ×  spam goes here!  21:46, June 12, 2016 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
Invest area in the WPAC, fish storm most likely. Jdcomix (talk) 15:08, June 4, 2016 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
GFS makes this a typhoon with a exposed center as it nears Hainan. -- Hurri  cane Odile   22:34, June 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ambo
so this is a TD by PAGASA apparently. -- Hurri  cane Odile   17:25, June 26, 2016 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
finally models develop a invest! -- Hurri  cane Odile   15:22, July 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think we could see our first named storm out of this invest. According to GFS, the system is expected to become a typhoon. T G  21:47, July 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * The JTWC have put a high chance for formation on this invest. We are probably going to see Tropical Storm/Severe Tropical Storm/Typhoon Nepartak in the next day or so. T G  12:18, July 2, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nepartak
Per JMA; JTWC just upgraded it to a depression though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:41, July 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now a TS per JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:05, July 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Finally got something here; this is the second-latest date for the first storm of a WPac season, after July 8, 1998. Also, this thing looks nice and is moving over a favorable environment; JTWC eventually takes this to a category 3 storm over the next several days and it eventually might hit South Korea or Japan. Ryan1000 11:11, July 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Holy cow, the WPAC is amazing this year! It's so amazing, that it never formed anything, give or take a few depressions here and there, until JULY THIRD! I just almost had a seizure when he formed!←|Me laughing| Reminds me so much of 2013, except that year, the storms formed in June, and there was a near hurricane on the first week of January. Now remember, we just had a historic typhoon drought for 7 months, an incredible feat even 2010 couldn't pull off. P.S: Oh, and 1998? That year sure made a fool of itself January-July. I hail 1998. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829 \Chat/ 14:12, July 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Lol, the WPac really was insanely quiet. We finally got something but this might threaten South Korea and Japan. This is going to be a typhoon, maybe even a strong one.  St  eve  82  0   03:07, July 4, 2016 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak
60 mph, 990 mbar. Nepartak will probably a typhoon by tomorrow. T G  15:04, July 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still expected to head northwest towards Taiwan and China, but the front that caused deadly flooding over China recently could recurve it towards Japan or South Korea as well. This storm definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 01:50, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

Typhoon Nepartak (Butchoy)
Category 2 typhoon 90 mph/955 mbar. Named Butchoy in the Philippines. T G  11:17, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * I was shocked to know SAB has Nepartak at T6.0 182.58.69.91 12:09, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * This thing looks fairly well-organized right now, it could be on the verge of rapidly intensifying. Taiwan and China better watch out. Ryan1000 12:18, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * likely a STY upgrade at 18z if this keeps on. -- Hurri  cane Odile   15:09, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * OH MY WORD THIS STORM IS BLOWING UP, 140 MPH 1 SUSTAINED, 105 MPH 10 SUSTAINED, 940 MBAR LOW PRESSURE! T6 DVORAK! Expected to be C5 tomorrow afternoon by JTWC, but I think it will happen earlier than THAT!Sincerely, IbAHAn1829 \Chat/ 16:12, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is going to be a VERY BAD storm for Taiwan and China, unless rapid weakening occurs, which is highly unlikely until landfall. T G  18:07, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * 150mph, 925 mbar. This is becoming a monster. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:04, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

Officially a super typhoon. Winds at 150 mph and pressure at 925 mbar. T G  20:03, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's an unofficial designation though, since it's the JMA and not JTWC that is in charge of the western Pacific. Nevertheless, this may explode to a Category 5-equivalent typhoon if favorable conditions continue. Taiwan, China, Ryukyu Islands and even the Philippines (because of the monsoon) should watch out for this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:06, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * that prediction was accurate.

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL, AND HAS ACQUIRED ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS AS THE EYE EXPANDED TO 13 NM.

JTWC calling this annular now, apparently. -- Hurri  cane Odile   20:10, July 5, 2016 (UTC)

i have never been so hyped for a visible image... -- Hurri <font face="Comic Sans MS"> cane Odile   21:09, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * It looks like Nepartak might slam into Taiwan as a Category 4 or 5 typhoon. Let's just hope that it'd be weaker than that. T G  21:31, July 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is scary. We finally got something in the WPAC, and of course it has to be a major threat. I really hope it doesn't do much destruction. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:42, July 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * The WPac HAD to make its first named storm a major threat to land. I really, honestly, hope they will be safe. All this time, I had a bad feeling about the name "Nepartak"... I won't be surprised if it ends up being among Taiwan's most destructive storms ever recorded. This beast needs to significantly weaken before it strikes Taiwan... or who knows what will go down there.  <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0    00:33, July 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Category 5 now.  This is not good, it's at 140 knots and 900 millibars. And strengthening is still likely. I hate to say this but we are likely looking at a sub-900 millibar storm barreling straight towards Taiwan.  Leeboy100 Hello! 04:16, July 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Despite Napartak's extreme intensity, Nepartak is rather small for a super typhoon, almost as small as Blas. It'll probably be very strong when it hits Taiwan, but hopefully it hits an unpopulated part of the island's coast, since the core of maximum winds is small and it'll be moving fast. Ryan1000 05:46, July 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Bada news. Nepartak is now at 175 mph & nine HUNDRED millibars, rivaling even  HURRICANE KATRINA!!!  I DEATHLY hope Taiwan AND China is jam packed PREPARED for this. I died a little inside thinking of the amazement and catastrophe Nepartaks' going to cause. Stay safe Taiwan! Oh, and u too, China, and Koreas!(assuming Nepartak makes it to the Koreas)Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 10:30, July 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still 900 MB, so maybe it peaked... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 14:43, July 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * looks that its becoming annular in satellite imagery. --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> Hurri <font face="Comic Sans MS"> cane Odile   15:34, July 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is starting to look annular, except that it has a pinhole eye instead of a huge one. Taiwan better be taking shelter.  Leeboy100 Hello! 15:46, July 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Where is everybody? We have a major Typhoon out there and nobody's here. Still the same, at 175 mph and 900 millibars, and this storm is producing gusts of 210 MPH. This will likely be very bad. Stay safe everyone in Taiwan.  Leeboy100 Stay safe Taiwan. 02:45, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * the symmetry of Nepartak is beyond beautiful. its one of the destructive and beautiful typhoons in the WPac. --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> Hurri <font face="Comic Sans MS"> cane Odile   02:50, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Uh oh... This monster is closing in. Taiwan is in danger of getting devastated by Nepartak now. Hopefully, they stay safe out there. I don't want to hear any news about extreme destruction and deaths. However, it is a beautiful hurricane on satellite imagery.  <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0    04:47, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, 900 hPa is impressive, but if it peaks there it's going to be the fourth storm to get stuck there this decade, after Sanba, Vongfong, and Soudelor. Only Haiyan and Megi (and Patricia) have made it, you'll have to go back to Wilma if you want another one. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 05:13, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * This storm maintained the same strength. This is looking ugly for Taiwan. This may be their Haiyan/Katrina. I just hope this is less worse than Morakot '09 (which is Taiwan's worst typhoon ever, despite only peaking as a Category 1 typhoon). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:01, July 7, 2016 (UTC)

down to 270kph. still 900mb though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:09, July 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * now 260kph. still 900mb. but a Taiwanese buoy recorded an 897mb pressure. (see: https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/751057770057793536) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:52, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * It'll probably be downgraded to a category 4 when it makes landfall in Taiwan later today. The high mountains of the island should destroy the small circulation of this thing before it makes it to China as a considerable storm. Ryan1000 15:36, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still 260kph (1-min). Down to 185kph (10-min) though. 920mbars. 124.106.128.187 16:02, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's closing in on Taiwan, and hopefully they are all prepared by now. I don't want to see a Morakot repeat. It should make landfall later today, but major destruction is inevitable. :/  <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0    19:01, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's not even going to come close to Morakot. Morakot sat over Taiwan for several days and dumped catastrophic amounts of rainfall over the island that caused the worst flood disaster in the island's history, a flood that killed hundreds and caused billions of dollars in damage. If you see Dr. Master's latest blog post, he elaborates a little on the typhoon history of Taiwan, and the island is definitely no stranger to powerful typhoons, so just because Nepartak is going to make a strong landfall doesn't mean it will be catastrophic for the island; the buildings there are very well-engineered for typhoon winds. The worst storms for Taiwan are the storms that move slowly over the island and dump heavy rain which causes floods and mudslides, like Morakot and Fanapi '10. Nepartak is small and fast-moving, so it's very unlikely it'll be a repeat of either Morakot or Fanapi. Itll probably be a repeat of Bilis 2000 or Jangmi '08, both of which took fairly similar paths to Nepartak, but caused relatively little damage and deaths on Taiwan. Ryan1000 19:17, July 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm pretty sure it's made landfall.  Leeboy100 Stay safe Taiwan. 23:28, July 7, 2016 (UTC)

Now down to a Category 2. 945mbars. Seems Taiwan escaped this storm, but I'm getting worried for China — they're currently experiencing their greatest floods since 1998 and there's a high possibility that this storm may exacerbate the poor weather conditions there. Meanwhle, the Philippines, though not directly affected by Nepartak, is being battered by the southwest monsoon which was further enhanced by Nepartak, prompting class suspensions due to heavy rains. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:21, July 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * So far, only two fatalities have been reported with over 60 injuries. It weakened to a 150 mph category 4 storm before it made landfall, and it seems Taiwan's mountains killed this thing. Nepartak is down to a category 1 now and is only expected to be a tropical storm when it moves into mainland China. It could cause more flooding in China, but it will be localized due to Nepartak's small size. Ryan1000 12:57, July 8, 2016 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Nepartak (2nd time)
Down to a STS, and it's nearly dead due to the interaction with Taiwan. Ryan1000 20:33, July 8, 2016 (UTC)

So, 3 people are dead and over 100 injured, but it could have been much worse. Also,  they found a minimum pressure of 897 millibars at its peak, which means this was the strongest typhoon since Haiyan. Leeboy100 Stay safe Taiwan. 21:11, July 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Looks like it wasn't as bad as I originally feared. A Morakot repeat would have been a nightmare. However, it still caused deaths. :/ Nepartak's weak circulation should strike China soon, and that might worsen the flooding disaster that has already killed 285 people. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   22:39, July 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, good luck, stay safe China, plus China has had more typhoons make landfall on them than even the Philippines. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 19:17, July 9, 2016 (UTC)

Remnants of Nepartak
Good Riddence, Nepartak. Chances of retirement are not that great unless the floods from this thing end up being as bad as 2013's Typhoon Fitow.Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \-DChat/Ta ta! 19:24, July 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * I never really expected Nepartak to be utterly catastrophic since the area it hit is no stranger to strong typhoons, plus Nepartak wasn't very big, like Fitow and Morakot were, so the impacts were rather localized. But, the season has only started now, so there could be worse later on. Ryan1000 11:47, July 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nepartak's intensity really surprised me; I never expected it to become the year's strongest TC thus far. Also, judging from the typhoon's Wikipedia page, impact was extensive but not catastrophic. Currently, nine fatalities and damage reports of at least $193.9 million (2016 USD) have been reported from Nepartak. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:17, July 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Thankfully, it was less destructive and deadly than I was expecting. But Taiwan is no stranger to powerful threatening typhoons, so maybe this shouldn't come as a surprise. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   06:19, July 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Bad news, the damage of Nepartak has exceeded $1 billion. The storm also caused 72 fatalities. Still, the amount of damage was less than I had originally thought. T  G  15:18, July 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Most of Nepartak's damage was in China, not Taiwan, and seeing as how much of eastern China was ridden with catastrophic 20+ billion dollar floods earlier, Nepartak doesn't stand out as much compared to that. But it is nonetheless more damaging than I thought it would turn out to be for China. Taiwan didn't even suffer 100 million USD in damage from this. Ryan1000 00:44, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 86 deaths now. Moderate chance of getting retired, tbh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:59, July 22, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: NE of Chuuk
According to the JTWC, we have a new system over the open Pacific. It is currently in a favorable environment with low shear and SST's of up to 30 degrees Celsius. However, not many models are developing this system. The AOI's current intensity is 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-min) /1010 mbar, and the JTWC gives it a low chance of formation in the next 24 hours. I hope this system can become a Category 5, as the next name slated for use, Lupit, has done so in both its past incarcerations. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:17, July 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Mysteriously, this AOI has dissipated. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:37, July 11, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: NNW of Yap
The JTWC is tracking a new AOI to the west of the above system. It's in a similar environment, only with slightly stronger shear. According to the JTWC, the models are not very excited with this AOI, neither. Winds are at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-min) with a pressure of 1008 mbar, and the JTWC anticipates a low chance of formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:37, July 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Gone, per JTWC. T G  14:39, July 13, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03W
So, a new depression has formed. Expected to stay at TD strength, and its current strength is 35 mph/1006 mbar. T G  19:54, July 17, 2016 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 03W
I was surprised this became a TD. However, it has dissipated. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, July 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * It is somehow still on the JMA's weather map, and moving east-southeastwards. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:04, July 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lupit
expected to be a failicia --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> Hurri <font face="Comic Sans MS"> cane Odile   01:32, July 24, 2016 (UTC) Deader than dead. Epic fail. Worse than Felicia. Next! Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \ (:-D)Chat / Ta ta! 16:13, July 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * Um, this is not dead yet. It is still a 45 mph TS and is also still an active storm according to the JTWC. T  G  17:47, July 24, 2016 (UTC)

Remnants of Lupit
Now, it is dead. T G  12:18, July 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, just wow. I wanted Lupit to be just like its two predecessors - powerful, long-lived Category 5 super typhoons. Nope. Not only does a name which means "visciousness" in the Philippines go to a very weak tropical storm, but also one that sneaks out of nowhere and lasts just two days. I'm sad to see Lupit fall on its face. Hopefully, Nida, who has also become a Category 5 two out of two times, does not follow their footsteps. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:25, July 28, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 05W
30 mph/1006 mbar. Expected to become Mirinae before China/Vietnam landfall. T G  16:34, July 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's expected to be a tropical storm, which is much better than a typhoon due to its forecast track into China/Vietnam. The WPac has continued to be inactive... <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   20:58, July 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Finally another storm in the WPAC! (Although the last one was no joke - edit: the one before that, I forgot Lupit even existed lol) I do hope this one stays weak due to impacts, but it's nice to see some activity in what's usually the world's most active basin. At this rate, this year may have a shot at the quietest WPAC season on record. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 00:34, July 26, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mirinae
Now named by JMA. 40 mph/998 mbar. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:23, July 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * And we have another named storm in the WPAC. I hope this one fails as badly as Lupit because it will hit land soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:29, July 26, 2016 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Mirinae
Now an STS per JMA. 60 mph/990 mbar. Mirinae is probably at its peak intensity right now due to the fact that it's practically over land. T G  13:22, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * This isn't looking too good for China and Vietnam. If the deep convection reaches land there could be severe flooding issues. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:50, July 27, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mirinae (2nd time)
40 mph/996 mbar. T G  11:52, July 28, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Mirinae
Mirinae is on the verge of dissipating now. This storm seems quite disappointing. T G  14:22, July 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * This storm seems basically gone now. I'm not sure how bad impacts on land were yet though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 16:23, July 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * The good thing is, this has a major lack of fatalities so far. The bad thing is, we don't know how bad the damage is. T  G  17:11, July 28, 2016 (UTC)

Remnants of Mirinae
Since the JMA has not issued a new update on Mirinae for six hours, this probably indicates they have stopped following Mirinae (which, along with Lupit, I did not even know existed). One fatality has been reported thus far, and although heavy flooding was expected to be a problem for Vietnam, I have not seen any damage statistics. It seems as if this storm was a near disaster, as it became a severe tropical storm over the Gulf of Tonkin despite its proximity to land. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:05, July 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Luckily, it didn't turn into a massive typhoon monster (of course, I never predicted that). A tropical storm is much better than a typhoon when close to land. But still, it caused a death. :( <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   21:20, July 28, 2016 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression A
I am not sure if the JTWC assigned the aforementioned number to this TD east of the Philippines. However, it appears to be developing convection, and with low shear and warm SST's per the JTWC, may become a tropical storm. Winds are 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-min) according to the JTWC, with a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. Since the system is headed towards land, I don't think it will get very strong. Nevertheless, since the last two incarnations of the next name, Nida, became Category 5's, I would like it to at least not break its trend like Lupit just did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:18, July 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * I really wouldn't wish it to become a C5 because it taking a path right towards the Philippines. The GFS already has it make landfall as a typhoon in the Philippines. Let's just hope it's weaker before landfall. T  G  23:41, July 28, 2016 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression B
The JTWC has not acknowledged this system, but according to Wikipedia, the JMA is tracking a tropical depression southeast of Japan. The JMA reports a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:18, July 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Looks like it won't be very strong, luckily. Expected to be a failed depression. T  G  23:50, July 28, 2016 (UTC)