Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Open Atlantic
Another new one associated with a tropical wave at 10/20. Development is a bit doubtful before it interacts with upper-level winds by the weekend. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Just archived July here and in the other forums, but the ATL is still sleeping right now. It'll pick up a bit later, just not this moment. Ryan1000 03:58, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now down to 10/10. I doubt this one would form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:04, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0. Still on the TWO though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!-70.190.5.175 20:01, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Slightly Southwest of Where Emily Formed
A new AOI has popped up in the gulf. This AOI is only at 10/10, and though it probably won't become anything, I'm not discounting it after Emily formed so quickly in almost the same location. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:22, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 0/0, but like the AOI above, it is also still on the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:17, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!- 70.190.5.175 20:01, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

The Atlantic is sleeping again, but it should not sleep for much longer. It is likely that activity will explode after mid-August, and just having TSs that don't do much by this point in the year is common. In fact I think the season has been quite active so far, as many seasons (like 2004 and 2009 and many in the 20th century) were really inactive at the beginning (but many would end up very active, like 2004). For those new here, just having a lot of TSs that don't do much (or not much activity overall) by early August does not usually mean a pathetic season overall. Last year had its first in-season hurricane and second hurricane overall (at the "E" storm) form on this day after a dead July, and that season still got very active. 2015 was going pathetically, with only 3 TSs by this point (but it would end up as a near-average season). The best analogs to this season would be 2011 (whose 5th named storm formed today and had 8 TSs to start the season off before exploding) and 2006 (not counting Zeta, 4 TSs formed by this point in the year before the season exploded at the end of August and September; the season was still overall near-average though). Even 2010 and 2012 could be considered as analogs if not for Alex's and Chris' strength, as we are talking about all TSs by this point of the year. But beware, 2013 was also a good analog to this year (with 4 TSs compared to the 5 TSs and 1 TD so far this year, and both seasons had early MDR formations), and we know how that season turned out. No one knows how the current season will eventually turn out, but my gut feeling says an active season like last year is a good possibility. Let's just hope 2013 does not repeat itself this year. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:41, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging off Africa
Just after I wrote the above, I checked NHC to see a 10/30 tropical wave emerging off Africa. I think this is more likely to be a named storm than the other recent waves that popped up on the TWO (such as the 10/20 one that died out earlier). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:52, August 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Both the GFS and the Euro are already on board with this AOI. Although they don't expect this to become a particularly big storm (in size), they do make it a hurricane in the long run, the GFS taking it into the northeastern U.S, particularly Nantucket Island and Massachusetts, while the Euro moves it into the upper Lessers (Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico) before dying over Hispaniola. However, if the Euro's scenario pans out, this may need to be watched closer, because Irene of 2011 was also forecast to move over Hispaniola and die out, but it instead skipped north of the island and hit the U.S. east coast. While this is all still very far out, the Atlantic may definitely be kicking up again, starting with this wave. Ryan1000 02:50, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50. This is looking to be a Cape Verde-type hurricane in the coming days/weeks. Here comes Franklin (I hope). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:16, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is most definitely going to be Franklin. Unfortunately, this could be a bad storm. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:36, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/60. The Euro has backed off on this system with their latest run, instead showing a different storm forming in the BoC in a week, but the new run of the GFS takes this into Savannah, GA as a formidable major hurricane in the long run. If conditions remain favorable for this storm, it'll probably end up being a furious and compact, but intense, storm, and if the GFS does get this one accurate (unlike the AOI after TD 4 that they hyped early last month), then the U.S. might not get lucky from Franklin-to-be. Ryan1000 13:54, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
It's now been invested. 12Z GFS run now takes this recurving from the U.S. east coast into Atlantic Canada, but this is still a long ways out. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:41, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Things don't seem to be looking good with this - and could be our first hurricane of the season I think. Hopefully conditions will permit and we will get ourselves a pretty long lived fish storm to track across the Atlantic that doesn't bother anyone. Owen 18:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/70. I believe this will become Franklin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:24, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * This thing just jumped to 40/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:48, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am really hoping that this is a fishspinner like Owen said. We do not need a devastating east coast hurricane. I have a feeling this will be Franklin and the Caribbean wave be Gert. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:51, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Currently 50/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * The last few runs of the GFS have been recurving this out to sea just before hitting the eastern U.S, which is fortunate and would make this look like a re-Earl (2010), but it's still a long ways out. The Euro is actually more enthusiastic about the Caribbean wave than this one. Ryan1000 12:59, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Future-Franklin should hopefully be a fishspinner and let's hope that GFS is right on their latest runs and it does not impact the east coast. This is likely to be the season's first hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:15, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 18Z GFS run on tropicaltidbits.com now shows this heading on a more southernly path, along the lines of what the Euro was predicting before, and skimming along the northern greater Antilles before turning north past the west coast of Florida and hitting Panama City as a category 2 or 3 hurricane. The Euro is still unenthusiastic about this, but that model tends to be far more conservative with MDR development, until a closed circulation gets going. HWRF also shows this becoming a strong hurricane, but that model is too agressive in long-range intensity forecasts for my liking. Ryan1000 23:41, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 40/70. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:23, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, seems the Euro is becoming right on this one. It's now down to 30/50. I still hope that we may see Gert from this in the long run though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:29, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 99L still has time to organize itself, but it would be nice to see a nice fish hurricane and not see a struggling tropical storm with every tropical wave that emerges off the coast of Africa. Owen 18:55, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Time's running out for this one. It's down to 20/50. Maybe this won't develop at all.... Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:43, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

And suddenly this flopped. Now down to 10/30. I feel that this won't even become a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:16, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well it's now down to 0/20. What an invest though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:02, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * What a flop tbh. This looked like it would develop earlier but I guess environmental conditions didn't really favor it. Maybe it could still have a chance at Gert in the very long run but I'm not sure about that happening. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:40, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS has completely dropped this storm, but the Euro has now been taking a more agressive approach to 99L once it reaches the eastern seaboard of the U.S. However, unless conditions improve there, this won't be anything more than a TS when it reaches there by next week, if that. Ryan1000 03:00, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's now 0/30. This invest can really test someone's patience. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:06, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/50. Can 99L be a TD? Stay tuned. (Well to be honest I hope this eventually becomes Gert.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * This thing has persisted for quite a bit. Gert now looks likely by early next week. Glad it was not a complete flop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:49, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:16, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/40. This invest keeps on fluctuating. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:28, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/50. Please form now 99L... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:07, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

40/60. Expected to stay in the open Atlantic if it forms. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:00, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * This invest kinda reminds me of how Hermine from last year formed. Both this and Hermine are/were being tracked for more than a week. Hoping this invest finally gets its act together to become Gert although it might not be stronger than a TS due to lingering dry air. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:39, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:53, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * It has been organizing as of late and conditions are conducive for development. I do hope Gert comes from this, although I would like it to be stronger than a TS because I am kind of sick of them after the spree of TSs that occurred before Franklin. At least we're not seeing a re-2011 though (that season began with 8 TSs!) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:04, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * You're right, Steve. This is reminiscent of Hermine from last year. (Fun Fact: Hermine was also 99L before it formed!) Anyway, I hope this becomes Gert in 5 days. Lowkey hoping for it to become a hurricane though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:09, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * It could become Gert much sooner than that. Outlook is 80/80 and expect a TD by tonight or tomorrow. This should turn away from the U.S. and go in between the East Coast and Bermuda. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:16, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on Gert, please form and become a hurricane, but stay away from land! Don't know why, but because this storm is gonna be called Gert, I can't stop thinking about this guy here. Nah, I predict Gert will form within about 5 hours from now, SteazySteve. You can refer to me as Henriette. 169.51.72.247 00:33, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Now a TD, and expected to reach 65 mph. It seems to have plenty of hurricane potential but it will depend on how the dry air affects it. Otherwise it's in a low shear and warm water environment. C'mon future-Gert, please become a hurricane! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:30, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Not a storm yet, but it looks like Gert has arrived. Little trivia, if Gert somehow does manage to become a hurricane, it will be the first hurricane named Gert since 1999. That incarnation of Gert became a Category 4. I don't think this Gert will make it that far.... Leeboy100 Hello! 04:11, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Finally it became a TD. I hope this becomes Hurricane Gert in the long run (although the forecast only says it will peak as a high-end tropical storm). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pulling for future Gert to become the second hurricane of the season as well. But finally, after all this tracking - 99L forms. Owen 06:02, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This reminds me so much of 99L/Hermine of last year. #1: The resistance of becoming a tropical cyclone for two weeks. #2: Forming near the U.S. #3. Forecast to become a high-end tropical storm at first. Anyway, this will most likely be Gert. At the moment, this is heading WNW at 14 mph. This means that Gert will be edging ever so closely to the U.S. if this continues to happen. I don't think that this storm will directly impact the U.S., but the rip currents are something to watch for. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:19, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gert
AL, 08, 2017081318,, BEST, 0, 277N, 716W, 35, 1011, TS 7-1-0. Hello, Gert. Awaiting the upgrade in 5pm NHC advisory. Owen 19:54, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
We have ourselves another area to watch. I think the race to become Franklin is definitely on, with an edge for 99L currently. This newly invested area is something models have been picking up on in the Caribbean and Bay of Campeche and could be a potent threat considering conditions have been becoming much more favorable in the Caribbean. Owen 18:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's at 10/20 on the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:23, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 20/40. This may become Gert. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:48, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be something like Harvey (2011) or Earl from last year. I'm calling it, this will be Gert. It better not be anything destructive. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:55, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/50. This has a shot of becoming Gert. Hi!-68.106.0.77 06:08, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks like it'll be a BoC spinup, but the global models are making this stronger than a mere TS, and this might even become a minimal hurricane in the GoM down the road. Ryan1000 13:07, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * It could be that, but I think that it could also be a re-Harvey or Earl and develop before the Yucatan landfall. I don't think this one will end up as stronger than a minimal hurricane (C1 at most). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:18, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 30/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:23, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 40/60 per latest NHC release. This may become a TD first before 99L above. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:29, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm beginning to think this one is winning the race to become Franklin. Owen 18:55, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 50/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:00, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * With this now higher than 99L (which is down to 30/50), it's entirely possible this one might become Franklin and 99L will become Gert, or not develop at all before unfavorable conditions take hold in the middle of next week for 99L. Ryan1000 00:03, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now to 60/80. Hi!-68.106.0.77 06:32, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Increased to 80/90. Here comes TD 7 (Franklin). Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:24, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven
According to ATCF, we now have Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven. There has been 2 calls in the last hour between Mexico's meteorogical service and the NHC to begin coordinating tropical storm warnings. Advisories will begin at 5 pm accordingly and also worth noting that pressures are starting to fall in the area. I think Franklin will be here very soon. Owen 20:04, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin
It's official. 90L has defeated 99L to the race to become Franklin. Since we have our 6th named storm now, it's worth noting that 4 other years had 6 named storms at this point: 1936, 1959, 2005 and 2012. All four of those years were active. Owen 02:59, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is currently not forecast to go above TS strength as it is expected to move across the Yucatan and into mainland Mexico, and if it doesn't become a hurricane, then we'll have the first 6 named storms this year not become hurricanes. Interestingly enough, the last time this list was used (in 2011) also had the first 6 (eventually 8) named storms not become hurricanes as well. However, the season is still ramping up, and we could see stronger, longer-lasting storms later on this year. Ryan1000 04:28, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * 45 mph, 1005 mb. Hurricane watch issued from Chetumal to Punta Allen in Mexico. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:56, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 50 mph/1004 mbar. Franklin is pulling together very quickly. At this rate, Franklin could be a hurricane before landfall. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:50, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60 mph/999 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 7, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory out, and nothing has changed. Well, almost. It's now moving West-Northwest at 13, instead of 14, so that's something. Leeboy100 Hello! 17:55, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin looks like he's developing an eye. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a sudden jump to hurricane strength before landfall. This could be a re-Earl, unfortunately. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:22, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Didn't really expect this to be Franklin due to the other system out in the open Atlantic looking better when this was just an eastern Caribbean wave. I hope to see the season's first hurricane as long as it does not be a re-Earl, Karl or even Stan. We could really use a hurricane right now, as I am getting sick of all the TS's. Remember how 2011 had 8 TS's to start the season? If this does not be a hurricane, we have a re-2011 on our hands. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:45, August 7, 2017 (UTC)

This may not become a hurricane before landfall, but the NHC is now almost certain that Franklin will be a hurricane after it emerged back into the Gulf. Forecast takes it up to hurricane strength after that point. It's very likely that we will have Hurricane Franklin. Which would be the first time the name 'Franklin' would be used for a hurricane. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:03, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is now moving due northwest instead of west-northwest, so it may have much more time over the open waters of the GoM than previously anticipated. I didn't expect Franklin's organization and track to change as fast as it did today, and if Franklin does what Karl did in 2010 and keeps its organization as it crosses the Yucatan, then it could become a very powerful storm in the GoM. Ryan1000 21:24, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Franklin is still 60 mph but the pressure is 995 mbar, and it's about to make landfall soon. Northerly shear will increase a bit when it moves in the BOC which could be enough to prevent it from RIing. I think, at most, it could reach C2 intensity before the mainland Mexico landfall. A major might even be possible if organization remains completely intact through the crossing. ~  <font face="Impact"> Steve     Talk Page  My Edits  📧   02:56, August 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh no, this is going to be bad for Veracruz. It's currently 325 miles east-northwest of Veracruz. It's getting close to be making landfall at the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for most of the Yucatan Peninsula, Tropical Storm Watches are in effect for Mexico (Chetumal to Campeche), and Hurricane Watches are in effect for some of the mainland Mexico. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:51, August 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * It made landfall already on the Yucatan Peninsula and it's currently moving over it. The intensity is down to 45 mph/999 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:30, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * This can be a minimal C1 or a strong 70 mph tropical storm. For now, NHC expects this to remain at tropical storm intensity. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:05, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Despite Franklin's winds decreasing, it has maintained its organization as it crossed the Yucatan; however NHC now expects some moderate shear to exist north of the storm after it emerges over water again, which should inhibit any significant strengthening in the BoC from Franklin. Ryan1000 21:44, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * And now a hurricane warning is in effect for Veracruz. NHC now expects Franklin to become a hurricane before landfall. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:50, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh no, this is going to be bad for Veracruz. It is currently  <span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:"HelveticaNeue",Helvetica,"NimbusSansL",Arial,"LiberationSans",sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-weight:normal;">about 325 miles (525 km) east-northwest of V eracruz. It will be the first hurricane of the season once it's a Category 1 hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:00, August 9, 2017 (UTC) P.S. Be prepared  Veracruz!


 * Franklin now 60 mph/994 mbar. He's headed toward taking the title as first hurricane of the season. I will say, however, he reminds me an awful lot like Karl. Owen 07:11, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 65 mph, 994 mb. Can become 80 mph before landfall. I hope this won't be a repeat of Karl '10 and Earl '16, or even Ingrid '13, Alex '10, Stan '05 and Roxanne '95. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I had the feeling it was going to keep its organization crossing the Yucatan, but it probably doesn't have enough time to RI as fast as Karl did in September 2010. Still, I'd be surprised if Franklin doesn't become a hurricane for the first time later today. Ryan1000 09:12, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 60 kts/987 mbar now, officially displaces Arlene as the strongest storm of the season so far by pressure. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:54, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70 mph, 985 mbar. Franklin is almost certain to become a hurricane in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:46, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Franklin is being extremely stubborn! Franklin is now at 70 mph/984 mbar. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:21, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 18z ATCF is calling Franklin a hurricane!!! AL, 07, 2017080918,, BEST, 0, 201N, 944W, 65, 984, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FRANKLIN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, One this is confirmed by the NHC, we'll officially have not only the first hurricane of the 2017 AHS, but the first-ever Hurricane Franklin. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:53, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

I spy with my little eye, a little eye trying to form. I don't know how Franklin is still just a tropical storm, though. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:06, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Kinda shocked that it is still a tropical storm. Ugh, Franklin gives me agony; why is he still 70 mph? Anyway, NHC still expects Franklin to become a hurricane before landfall. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:25, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Franklin
The aforementioned ATCF intensity has been confirmed by the NHC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:43, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Upgraded. History has now been made, the first ever Hurricane Franklin. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Glad to see Franklin become a hurricane, for the first time on record! :D Hopefully, Veracruz and surrounding areas don't receive much destruction. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:47, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 984 mb. Finally reached the 75 mph mark. Expected to hit Veracruz as an 85 mph C1. (Sidenote: I just noticed that Franklin's track is similar to Diana (1990). I hope Franklin won't be as bad as that hurricane.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:51, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

I do see an eye trying to pop out on the visible satellite imagery, this was upgraded to a hurricane just in time. To be honest, Franklin's structure kind of reminds me of Hermine last year, except going the opposite direction. I'm hoping that this isn't a re-Stan or re-Earl, because it's going to affect the exact same areas. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Diana was a huge hurricane when she hit Mexico, much bigger than Franklin, and some northernly shear should keep Franklin from intensifying too much before landfall north of Veracruz tonight. Still, even if he doesn't get past category 1 intensity, flooding and mudslides will be a threat to Mexico, as we saw from the high death toll of Earl last year. Ryan1000 21:58, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Gaining steam, unfortunately. Winds now up to 85 mph. This is getting very scary, it's actually stronger than Stan was when it made landfall. I really hope it doesn't intensify any further. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's kinda took the same path as 1990's Diana. Diana got retired due to the impacts that it made. Stan, which is a deadly storm got retired too. Other storms that took nearly similar path as Franklin avoided retirement. Earl is kinda deadly (106 deaths) but it's not retired. Karl is the costliest storm to strike Veracruz (<span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:"HelveticaNeue",Helvetica,"NimbusSansL",Arial,"LiberationSans",sans-serif;font-size:14.4px;font-weight:normal;">$5.6 billion) but avoided retirement. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:54, August 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * And Franklin has made landfall as a C1. I hope the impacts aren't that severe. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:26, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Franklin (2nd time)
Down to a TS over Mexico, should die later today. Ryan1000 10:08, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin
RIP, gone. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:38, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

I really hope the impacts aren't too severe. Goodbye Franklin. Leeboy100 Hello! 18:47, August 10, 2017 (UTC)

It appears that Franklin has caused no deaths as of now (according to Wikipedia). Damage could have been a bit extensive though, because seeing from this, plenty of losses were reported in eastern Mexico. Homes were damaged, banana plantations were impacted and other impacts occurred. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:44, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Bahamas
And NHC spots a new AOI. Not expected to form though; it's currently at 10/10. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:26, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * I mean, there might still be a tiny chance it could form (remember Emily, and also to a more surprising extent, Jose 2011?). This thing looks like a random AOI that won't develop for now, but we can't rule out sudden development. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:52, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * You are right, Steve. However 99L can eat this up (it's relatively close to 99L's expected path). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:00, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Went off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:45, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:Off Africa
Another wave is emerging off of Africa, this is at 0/20 for now, but both of the global models are already picking up on this. GFS makes this a formidable hurricane moving off of or making landfall on the U.S. east coast, while the Euro takes this farther south, passing through the straits of Florida and into the GoM as a strong hurricane. It may be 10 days out, but if both of them agree on this becoming something serious, this may be a big storm to watch out for in the long run. Ryan1000 10:04, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This will probably be the first major of the season. This one will be one to watch as it comes near the U.S. We don't need a re-Irene or a Floyd. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:07, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements. Andros 1337 (talk) 04:34, June 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 10% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 25% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS.  T G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#889">0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)

Steve's Retirement Opinions
(Retirement colors: <font color="#006">-∞% , <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) '''

Notes:
 * A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
 * The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower, since it's way too obvious that they won't be retired.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

Retirement predictions and grades begin here:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Gets a lot of grading credit for its impressive and unusual formation in April. If this occurred at a typical time of year, the grade would have been MUCH lower. Stayed out to sea, so no retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#F00">F  - Struck a somewhat unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect); both the deaths and location could up the retirement chance a tad bit. Its unusual location for June saves the storm's grade from being lower than what I gave. Still a fail though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#0F0">20%, <font color="#F80">D+ - Caused plenty of flooding in the Midwest and the Gulf region around Texas/Louisiana as well as 3 deaths (2 direct,1 indirect). Full damage totals aren't out yet as of the time I typed this, but the U.S. has been through MUCH worse tropical storms (like Allison 2001 for example). Chances could go up or down from 20% after I see released damage tolls.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">F-   - Failed to redeem itself after 2011. Call me crazy for giving 25% to a failure, but the usage of the name garnered negative media attention and I'd give a 1/4 chance that this will receive the Isis, Adolph, etc treatment and be retired. The chance could be even higher, but this type of retirement has never occurred in the Atlantic, plus the NHC clarified the name is supposed to have no relationship to Trump. A 50 mph peak prevents this from getting the Z grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily :  <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#086">5%  ,  <font color="#8F0">C+  - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Retirement chances are preliminary; damage totals are currently unknown but so far there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Retirement chances could go up or down pending release of damage totals.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

50% or more=italics

That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022.
 * Cindy - 10% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 5% - 1.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Owen's Retirement Opinions

 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 20% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists.
 * Emily - 5% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
 * Franklin - TBA - We will see what happens - especially with how strong Franklin is able to get in the Bay of Campeche and impacts upon second landfall.

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

My turn!

Arlene -0% Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.

Bret -1% Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.

Cindy -20% Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.

Don -25% Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons.

Emily -1% Minimal impacts.

Franklin -TBA Made landfall in a landslide-prone area that was hit hard by Earl last year, which was weaker than Franklin was when it made landfall. Damage reports not out yet.

Leeboy100 Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)