Forum:2015 Pacific typhoon season

Betting pools for this page

Tropical Depression 14W
wait what? the JTWC is tracking a very tiny TD. will stay weak the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  12:31, August 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * In sharp contrast to Soudelor, 14W is struggling against some 20 knots of shear and dry air. With an exposed LLCC, the JTWC reports winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (1-min) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). Also, the JMA reported a pressure of 1012 mbar (hPa; 29.88 inHg) earlier, but I am not sure if this has changed. As the STR steers 14W westward, a trough currently over Japan should close in and basically destroy the system, as the JTWC expects within 48 hours. Quite the weakling we have. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:57, August 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * 14W is almost completely devoid of convection, and based on KNES estimates, the JTWC has lowered the depression's winds to 25 knots (30 mph) (1-min) gusting to 35 knots (40 mph). However, the JMA reported a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg) earlier today, which is lower than my above post. Regardless, the aforementioned trough should continue shearing apart 14W like the JTWC forecasts, and prompt dissipation within the next day or two. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:26, August 4, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 14W
Degenerated on August 5. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:51, August 8, 2015 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
another invest. could develop into something subtropical in the next days or so.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:06, August 6, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Molave
named. has some unusual subtropical characteristics.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  23:27, August 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * Most of Molave's convection is displaced to the NW, as the JTWC notes. They report winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-min) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Moreover, this is weaker than the JMA's estimate of 40 knots (45 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). As a matter of fact, the former just made Molave a TS. Due to a nearby TUTT cell to the storm's west, it is not forecast to significantly in the next 24 hours due to shear grasping at the system. However, as Molave transfers from STR influence to that of a trough located to its north, conditions may be favorable enough for some slight intensification, as both agencies predict peak winds of 55 knots (65 mph) (1- and 10-min) . Afterwards, baroclinic interaction should prompt Molave's weakening and extratropical transition. Whatever the case, Molave should not fail on the level of Haishen (the former already has a stronger intensity). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:51, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Banding is beginning to wrap into Molave's LLCC, but the nearby TUTT cell is still suppressing the storm's outflow and casting restrictive shear amounts. The JTWC report the same winds as from my last post, but the JMA have upped Molave's ten-minute winds to 45 knots (50 mph). As the storm tracks around the STR, the TUTT cell should cause little strengthening, but in another day or so, this influence should weaken, and the system may have a better chance at getting stronger. The JTWC has lowered their peak wind forecast to 50 knots (60 mph) (1-min) gusting to 65 knots (75 mph), but the JMA has raised its peak forecast to 60 knots (70 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 975 mbar (hPa). Afterwards, interaction with the westerlies will prompt Molave to weaken and become extratropical, all while not harming land. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:13, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Molave has transitioned to a subtropical depression according to the JTWC and issued the last advisory dumb JTWC. while the JMA keeps it as a TS. despite the subtropical characteristics.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:02, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was, however, a fail of a TC. It didn't really do much, except for a little bit of impacts, if any, in isolated islands. This and Haishen were epic fails, since they didn't get passed TS strength and failed to cause significant land impacts. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:20, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * I believe this image justifies the JTWC's decision. In my opinion, Molave never really had the most ideal conditions to become anything decent. However, the storm remains active, as the JMA is the agency with official jurisdiction over it. Nevertheless, if any impacts are caused, they should be minimal. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:47, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * its again being tracked by the JTWC... and it could transition into subtropical again...  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:33, August 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, Molave was not as strong as the JMA called for. It is dying once more, as all convection is sheared from its LLCC and it is basically a "bonafide" cold-core low, as the JTWC describes. Their final advisory pegs its winds at 35 knots (40 mph) (1-min) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph), while the JMA reports an intensity of 40 knots (45 mph) (10-min) /990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). I don't think Molave will become subtropical, but the JMA is predicting intensification to 50 knots (60 mph) (10-min) /980 mbar (hPa) as the storm starts to speed across the Pacific. Bye, Molave! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:49, August 13, 2015 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
this could become another super typhoon. and it headed like Soudelor. (to taiwan)  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:33, August 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Both invests now have TCFAs by the JTWC, but I am not sure which report matches with which system. If 97W is the invest SE of Guam, the JTWC alert notes banding wrapping into its LLCC, and is in an environment of low shear and good diffluence. Winds are estimated to be 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-min) by the agency, with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). This seems to be another potential strong typhoon, but I am not sure. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, August 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Is a TD IMO. YE Pacific  Hurricane  02:32, August 14, 2015 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
to the east of 97W. again to become a typhoon.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:33, August 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Both this and 97W above could cause problems for eastern Asia next week, and because they're close, their intensity and track forecasts are gonna be somewhat hard to predict, since they could undergo a fujiwara interaction as they head WNW. Ryan1000 16:42, August 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Both invests also now have TCFAs from the JTWC. I don't know if 98W is the system described to be SSW of Wake Island in the report. However, it similarly has banding in its northern and southern quadrants wrapping into the LLCC, and is likewise in an environment of low shear and good outflow. Winds are reported to be 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) as well per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). I also have no idea what to expect from this invest. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:04, August 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Likely a TD at this point. YE Pacific  Hurricane  02:32, August 14, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Normally I'm one of the first to complain about starting this section so early in the season; however, we've already had five storms, at least one of which has a decent chance of retirement. So, without further ado...


 * JMA
 * Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at, but enough for retirement? Nah.
 * Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, but a fish is a fish is a fish.
 * Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing.
 * Maysak: 65% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5.
 * Haishen: Wait, what?


 * PAGASA
 * All names: 0% - So far, no storm has caused either 1 billion PHP in damage, or 300 fatalities. As much as I disagree with PAGASA's arbitrary retirement standards (Amang was a respectable storm for them, and even a minor storm like Betty deserves a bit better than 0%), there's nothing I can do to change them.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:53, April 21, 2015 (UTC)

Eh...I'm bored. Been a while since I've been on, but until EPac and ATL start up in two weeks and a month, respectively, might as well post my calls thus far:

JMA names: PAGASA names: There you go. Ryan1000 20:44, May 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Mekkhala - 5% - Damage and deaths were very minimal, even by their standards.
 * Higos - 0% - Strongest February typhoon in 45 years, but it was still well away from land.
 * Bavi - 1% - Was just an afternoon rainshower for parts of micronesia; damage, if any, was less than minimal.
 * Maysak - 70% - It fortunately wasn't as bad as it could've been for the Philippines, but parts of Micronesia were slammed by this typhoon, and it was regarded as the worst ever in some areas. It has a pretty good shot of retirement based on what happened there alone. On top of all this, Maysak was also the strongest storm to exist in the West Pacific before April, and the 3rd earliest WPac category 5, after Ophelia in January 1958 and Mitang in March 2002.
 * Haishenot say anything here (end pun).
 * Noul - 5% - Preliminary estimate, but overall damage seems to have been minor in the islands, just like Maysak.
 * Dolphin - 10% - Damage on Guam was much less than I initially feared it would be, so it'll probably be coming back again in ~6 years.
 * Kujira - 6% - Caused some damage and deaths in Vietnam, but it won't be enough to kick it out.
 * Chan-Hom - 70% - Impacts in the Shanghai area totaled 944 million USD in damage and 1 death. While that's not as bad as it could've been, it was still pretty bad, and it has a good shot at retirement.
 * Linfa - 36% - Damage was somewhat extensive for a storm of it's intensity (218 million), though the Hong Kong area has seen worse, and it's definitely not a certainty. But it gets some credit.
 * Nangka - 15% - Like I said before, this was more or less a Halong repeat for Japan. Nothing exceptional, it'll probably be back in ~6 years.
 * Soudelor - 70% - Taiwan got off rather easy from this, with only 20 million in damage, but Saipan got slammed by this thing and China sustained extensive damage as well, up to 676 million dollars of it - and Soudelor killed at least 21 people, with over 100 more missing. If these initial numbers are only a small portion of the total losses, it's an 80%.
 * Molave - 0% - Welcome to typhoon school...aaand you fail.
 * Nothing meets their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP damage/300 deaths) thus far.

For the first time since I joined this wiki I will post retirement predictions for the WPAC

Here we go!

JMA ​  PAGASA
 * Mekkhala: 10%- 3 deaths and $7 million, but that won't warrant retirement
 * Higos: 0%- it was a strong storm, but didn't affect land
 * Bavi: 1%- didn't do much
 * Maysak: 60%-While the Phillipines avoided the worst of this unusually early cat 5 super typhoon, Micronesia was hit extremely hard. As Dylan said, This was a stronger Sudal (which was retired), except Sudal caused no deaths. 5 people were killed in this typhoon, so it has a good shot at retirement
 * Haishen: 0%- moving on to the next storm!
 * Noul: 10% The Phillipines avoided major devestation here! It was a cat 5 as it passed by the islands. Miraculously, damage has been minor so far! It did cause 2 deaths though :(
 * Dolphin: currently active

Nothing devestating enough to be retired so far. ​  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:38, May 17, 2015 (UTC)

​

JMA
 * Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at. Seriously.
 * Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, buuuuut, no landfall. See y'all in 6 freaking years! :3
 * Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing..so no. see you in 2021!
 * Maysak: 45% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5.
 * Haisheno comment...meh
 * Noul: 54% - Although Noul sort of helped Taiwan get water after a severe drought, Noul, known as Typhoon Dodong within the country, entered the Philippine area of Responsibility on May 7 and The Philippines raised signal 4, the highest warning level. From Wikipedia: "After Noul made a direct hit on northeastern Luzon at Santa Ana, Cagayan, at least two indirect deaths were attributed to Noul after they were electrocuted while preparing their houses in advance of the typhoon." That does not sound good. Noul was a slightly weaker Megi; remember, Megi was retired because the Hong Kong Observatory analysed that Megi was the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific Ocean since Tip in 1979 by attaining the 10-minute maximum sustained winds at 270 km/h (145 knots, 165 mph). However Megi claimed 69 lives; Noul killed only 2 (as I said earlier). I loved tracking Noul.


 * Dolphin: 30.5% - Strong typhoon, along with minor flooding in Guam, but it did pretty much nuttin.
 * Kujira: 0% - wtf, a fish = a fish. End of the line. But it did make landfall. YES BUT IT WAS ONLY LIKE A TORENTAL DOWNPOUR. OK? SHADDUP.
 * Chan-hom: 87.3% - This one has a shot at retirement; $1.46 billion in damage, 6 fatalities, Japan avoided major devastation here! Sadly, China was hit very hard by this storm. Due to the typhoon, more than 1 million people were evacuated in Zhejiang and nearly 30,000 ships were called back to port. 600 flights were reportedly canceled within the area.
 * Nankga: 5% - My iPod has new, black glass and it's way stronger than this. Would be surprised if it becomes a C5. UPDATE: Category 4? Wow. The WPac just made me eat my words.
 * Halola: 7% - I don't know if Halola's going on the road to retirement or not. Several flights cancelled and 1.2 million in damages...Funny because my surface cost me 1.2 grand.
 * Souledor: ??% - We'll have to see, nothing yet, but when I spring out of my break from wikia-WTF?! (english accent) Souledor literally THREW Maysak in the trash! (end accent)

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  17:56, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Any particular reason why you copied my rationales up to Haishen? :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:19, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * I was very lazy, that is all. :P --Puffle Let's party HARD!  21:04, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

here are mine. will update with new storms.

※ 5% Mekkhala: even Mekkhala was weak. it caused some flooding.

※ 0% Higos: meh...

※ -1% Bavi: wait what?

※ 75% Maysak: Micronesia got hit reaallly badly. Sudal part 2

※ -100% Haishen: no comment. (end water puns)

※ 50% Noul: Noul literally evaporated as it missed the phillipines as a C5.

※ 15% Dolphin: altough was a record early storm. some minor flooding in Guam

※ 25% Kujira: some flooding

※ 100% Chan-hom: 1 BILLION in damages! thats enough for instant retirement

※ 45% Linfa: but caused the ferry MV Nirvana to capsize. damages are are not worse than expected

※ 35% Nangka: active

 totally destructive  | get hyper! 04:09, June 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, storms can easily get away with $1 billion+ in damage without getting retired. In 2004, Typhoon Songda caused $9 billion in damage to Japan, and yet it wasn't retired. Granted, that is a rather extreme case, but still. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:32, July 29, 2015 (UTC)

Now I should do this, even though I'm not really interested in this basin:

(Retirement colors:  0%, 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))

JMA:
 * Mekkhala: <font color="#359">5% - The Philippines got away from this. Sorry Mekkhala, but you're most likely staying.
 * Higos: 0% - Really powerful, awesome, fantabulous February system! But all it did was spin fish, shrimp, seaweed, sharks, plankton, etc. out in the open Pacific.
 * Bavi: <font color="#AAC">1% - Nothing really interesting about this one. Saiyan, Tinian, and more Mariana Islands got some impacts, though.
 * Maysak: 60% - Chuuk sustained extreme damage, with as much as 90% structures sustaining damage. Most of Micronesia was just slammed by this thing. I wouldn't be surprised if it is retired.
 * Haishen: 0% - EPIC FAIL. See you next time!
 * Noul: <font color="#4A0">25% - Somewhat damaging, and it was extremely powerful, but damages should not be enough to warrant retirement.
 * Dolphin: <font color="#359">5% - It was really damaging for Guam, but it was mostly just a fish and dolphin-spinner. It probably spun the dolphins so much that they got killed. Please, think of the dolphins!
 * Kujira: <font color="#77B">2.5% - This TS caused extensive flooding in Hainan and Vietnam, and enhanced the monsoon, but a retirement is unlikely.
 * Chan-hom: 75% - Quite a lot of damage was caused in parts of China and also some in Okinawa. This could have a really high shot at retirement.
 * Linfa: <font color="#CF0">35% - Pretty extensive damage throughout Philippines, Taiwan, and Hong Kong region. This might have an outside shot at retirement, but I doubt it.
 * Nangka: 10% - Not super devastating, but did do a little bit of damage. Retirement is not likely at this point, so it's likely coming back next time. It was also pretty powerful, but not to the extreme extent like Soudelor.
 * Halola: <font color="#359">5% - Nothing really interesting here. Slight shot at best.
 * Soudelor: ><font color="#F09">85% - At this rate, it will very likely be retired. It's been a really horrible storm for Saiyan, China, and Taiwan. It was also the most powerful 2015 storm, challenging even Haiyan and Tip at one point. Since the storm is still not completely done yet, the percentages could go up or down, but most likely up.
 * Molave: 0% - Another epic fail! See you next time, buddy!

PAGASA: Nothing meets their retirement criteria, yet.

--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:59, August 9, 2015 (UTC)