Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season/September

September
Will add this section now, since it's only a day away. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:57, August 31, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Behind Seventeen-E
And yet another wave forms. 0/20, and will likely become Paul in the wake of 17E becoming Olivia. This year's Pacific hurricane season is on fire, and it's not showing any signs of slowing down anytime soon. Ryan1000 17:10, September 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * The conveyor belt keeps on rolling. Paul could arrive after the middle of next week with this system! At this rate, we will see one of the EPac's most active seasons on record... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:08, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30. The EPac can't stop and won't stop. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:46, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Or maybe it will pause for a while. Down to 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:05, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm not going to call it dead until it's down to 0/0. Give it some time, maybe we'll see it eventually become Paul and continue the conveyor belt of storms. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:27, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

0/10 now. This will take time, I guess. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:02, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Jumped right back up to 0/20.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:22, September 03, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 0/30, told you it needed more time. Here comes possible Paul! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:59, September 4, 2018 (UTC)

And it is now 20/50. Paul is coming... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:49, September 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * 30/60, Paul is on the way. Ryan1000 03:19, September 6, 2018 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Still 30/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:28, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Like always, conditions appear quite conducive for development. Another major, anyone? ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:42, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/70. C4 Paul sounds great provided it stays out to sea and doesn't follow Olivia near Hawaii. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:58, September 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I agree, I'm getting sick of storms threatening Hawaii. Now up to 50/80, and we could see another big one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:16, September 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:08, September 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * 90/90, will most likely be a depression when I wake up tomorrow morning. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:49, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E
Finally upgraded to a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, September 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paul
Expected to remain at sea and peak as a TS, but who knows... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:18, September 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, this is probably a waste of a name. NHC doesn't take it past its current intensity, and gradually weakens it. However, hopefully it pulls a surprise on us. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, September 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * So much for a surprise. Peaked at 45 mph, and is now weakening. I had a feeling this active trend would end soon. - VileMaster (talk)
 * Guess there had to be a random flop to balance out all of the epic storms we've been getting from this basin. Send Help Please  (talk) 20:18, September 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Paul
And he's dying. Boo, Paul. Boooo. Send Help Please (talk) 03:06, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is a fail, but maybe a relief of the EPAC's hyperactivity I suppose?  ~ Roy25     Never Forget 9/11  |  🗽     03:21, September 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yep, a fail in the midst of hyperactivity and lots of majors. We're disappointed in you, Paulfail. This might be just a short-lived relief, as conditions in the EPac may still be favorable for more epic beasts to form. After all there's still 2 months of the EPac season left. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:36, September 11, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul
And he's gone. He has taken over Olivia's streak for now. Bounce back in 2024 please, but don't do a Lane/Patricia though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:23, September 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * NHc mentioned that Paul's dissipation yesterday was the first time since August 14th in which no tropical cyclones were active in the EPac proper. But that may change with the AOI behind Paul. Ryan1000 11:07, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * That shows how crazy the EPac has been. But it's now the Atlantic's turn apparently (4 active systems there including the monstrous Florence)! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:38, September 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * this is why logan paul will lose the fight between ksi in february 2019 --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:43, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm 96C
Random, new invest near Alaska according to Tropical Tidbits. Kinda weird that this got invested before the AOI behind Olivia. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:34, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Slight spot of controversy elsewhere on this storm. Apparently, 96C is linked to Lane, but the issue is whether it IS Lane or whether Lane got absorbed and the system that absorbed Lane is 96C. CPHC seems to take the latter stance but from what I've heard, you can clearly trace Lane's path from when it dissipated to this point. So far, CPHC doesn't mention it in their outlooks.


 * The part I find interesting is that, if this is Lane, it places it alongside Hurricane 12 (the 75 freak hurricane) and re-Fausto 02. Both of those storms formed from remains of an EPac hurricane (Ilsa in 12's case), both formed at high latitude (about 40N), and both formed at around the same time (which, funny enough is end of August into September...just like here). One went unnamed, one kept its name. Will we have one get a name change to complete the set? Jake52 (talk) 12:10, September 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * The best track lists it as a subtropical storm and has been for the last 18 hours. ASCAT data, however, shows 96C is a tropical cyclone plus SAB are issuing tropical classifications on it. Kiewii 12:22, September 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * The heck is this? It's so far north that I don't even know how it could acquire even subtropical characteristics. This is a strange system... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:29, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * here lane have a snickers --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 18:44, September 21, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: 1400 SSW of Lihue, Hawaii
This wave on the CPHC outlook currently at 0/0. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:31, September 02, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not going to develop anyways. The excruciating wait for Walaka continues on... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:30, September 3, 2018 (UTC)

Dead. Send Help Please (talk) 17:57, September 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I would agree but maybe – just maybe – this AOI and Invest 99W in the WPac are the same. Not sure yet with that though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:50, September 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Has it been confirmed if this AOI became Invest 99W/26W/Mangkhut? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not sure, but it most likely did IMO. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:36, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico (yet again)
Up on the 5-day outlook at 0/20. Geez, the EPac can't stop. ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:38, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * This will probably become Rosa down the road. Getting to the 17th storm (R) name by mid-September is no easy feat. Ryan1000 21:04, September 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30. Yep, the EPac is hyperactive this year! ~  Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:39, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

0/40. Rosa is knocking at the door. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:11, September 13, 2018 (UTC)

0/50 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:35, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * 20/70. Rosa is definitely coming from this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:27, September 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 30/80 but still not invested. Baja will be threatened by this in the long run. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:00, September 16, 2018 (UTC)


 * 48 hours up to 40%, 5 days down to 60%. For some reason, still not invested. Its large size should prevent it from rapidly organizing, but it will probably still become Rosa as it approaches Baja. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:34, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
40/40 and finally invested, but it's already near Cabo. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/30. At this point I would be shocked if it became Rosa. Expected to bring life-threatening floods across northwestern Mexico (including Baja), and also bring moisture to the southwest U.S. (although the forecast doesn't show my area getting anything, it likely will be confined to Arizona/New Mexico). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:41, September 19, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E
Oh, it somehow managed to form. It was just 50/50 a few hours/minutes ago. It is very close to another landmass, and Rosa may still have to wait for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:38, September 19, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Nineteen-E
Down and out, but still remains as a rainfall threat to Sonora. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:44, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Was a bit surprised to see it become a TD. None of its remnants seem to be reaching SoCal, which is a shame because we need more rain. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:20, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Off the west-central coast of Mexico
A different AOI has popped up, but this won't do much. 10/10 and upper-level winds should prevent development. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   Remembering the day terrorists attacked: ✈🏢🏢  Never forget 9/11. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  05:39, September 12, 2018 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Oops. Surprise, surprise. 30/40 now. Just like the Atlantic & WPac, EPac is also unstoppable. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:37, September 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oops again. Down to 10/20. The other AOI may become Rosa though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, September 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Surprising it got up to 30/40! But this won't develop anymore...10/10 again. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:36, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:01, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: WNW of the 30/80 AOI (later 19E)/WSW of Baja
Currently 10/10, may be absorbed by the South of Mexico AOI. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:37, September 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Already dead. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:35, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

10/20. If this jumps to 30s-50s this may form. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:02, September 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is very likely to be the same system as the one mentioned earlier, so as a result I merged the 2 sections. Looking at archived TWOs, it never looked like it was absorbed and in fact looks like it just moved away from the other system. Now at 20/40, and more likely to be Rosa. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:46, September 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still not yet invested, still 20/40. We may have Rosa from this one, but the other system (19E) may still pull off another surprise. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:40, September 19, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 10/20. The wait for Rosa continues. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:34, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/0. This is dead. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:08, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:20, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico VII (south of Acapulco)
If I am not mistaken, this is the 7th overall south of Mexico AOI for this season, after the AOIs that developed into Aletta, Carlotta, Gilma, John, Kristy and 19E. This one is currently 0/30. May become Rosa or Sergio depending on the development of the other AOI. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:34, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 0/40. Rosa may be coming from this after all. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:04, September 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/50 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:09, September 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:50, September 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 20/80. This will become Rosa. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:22, September 23, 2018 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
30/80 and finally invested. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:04, September 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Jumped up to 60/90. This will likely become a significant hurricane, but whether it recurves into Baja California or goes out to sea is anyone's guess. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, September 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70/90, Rosa is finally coming. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:57, September 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * GFS forecast is highly worrying. It peaks this in the 930s (mbar) before crashing this into Northern Baja and SoCal at 977 mbar. Furthermore, it forms two more storms in the next 384 hrs impacting Mexico - a 950 mb headed for southern Baja and another one taking a Patricia-esque track. Mexico and SoCal should prepare urgently. -- Java Hurricane  14:58, September 24, 2018 (UTC)

Taking that GFS forecast with a grain of salt for now – it is still a long way to go. However, Baja and SoCal should keep an eye on this one. Anyway, this is almost certain to become Rosa; 90/90 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:41, September 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * That GFS forecast is really worrying for me, considering I live in SoCal. If that verifies, it might be a very rare strike by a tropical cyclone to our area. I saw the model animation on Tropical Tidbits and it appears the landfall location is going to be in northern Baja, but here in the High Desert of SoCal we may receive plenty of impacts as well. I'll take it with a grain of salt for now, but that run is not looking very good for me. Anyway, the system is 90/90 and I'll probably wake up to a tropical depression tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:26, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty-E
Now it's the 20th depression of the season. Forecast to become a category 2 Hurricane Rosa in a few days, but the long-term track and potential recurvature towards northern Baja or SoCal is too far out to be certain and isn't in the NHC's forecast cone as of now. But if Rosa-to-be RI's to a major hurricane (which wouldn't surprise me given how EPac storms can overshoot intensity forecasts), and recurves down the road, this could be the first storm in decades to threaten SoCal or northern Baja with TS or hurricane-force winds. Ryan1000 09:32, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rosa
She's finally here, but the forecast is getting ominous. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:44, September 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Rosa's a tiny storm, she's already at 65 mph and 997 mbars and forecast to rapidly explode into a major hurricane in the next day or so. Rosa might even have an outside chance to become a cat 5. Long-range forecast is shifting northward now, and might even shift northeastward down the road as a trough may break down the ridge southwest of Mexico, hopefully Rosa will be weaker by then though. The only thing stopping her now are ERC's. Ryan1000 05:23, September 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * A bit of dry air has halted Rosa's strengthening phase for now, but looking at the conditions in her path she's still going to explosively deepen over the next few days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:39, September 26, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Rosa
Now a hurricane. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:56, September 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * A NNE turn is now expected late in the forecast period, either as a strong TS or weak hurricane, since Rosa is rapidly exploding right now. Ryan1000 17:02, September 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * I don't know what to think about this storm yet.No.1 Mobile (talk) 23:28, September 26, 2018 (UTC)

Rosa's intensification has apparently halted due to the eye becoming more cloud-filled; I'm starting to doubt Rosa will intensify as much now, and if Rosa tries to turn to the north or north-northeast as fast as the current forecast indicates, she'll probably be sheared extremely hard since the storm has taken a turn almost due west recently. It might even dissipate before landfall, unless Rosa gets her act together immediately. Ryan1000 13:19, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Rosa

 * 125/953.Rosa is exploding right now.No.1 Mobile (talk) 20:58, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

145/940. Seems like I spoke too soon, Rosa exploded lately and is forecast to go up to 150 mph, but the track and intensity forecast exactly at landfall are uncertain given the likelihood of increased forward speed of the storm at the time. But drier air and cooler SST's will likely wear Rosa down when she reaches northern Baja, either to a strong TS or weak hurricane. Ryan1000 04:46, September 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 120 knots, 942 mb due to an eyewall replacement cycle. NHC notes in advisory 13 Rosa could have peaked at 130 or 135 knots at 06z. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:32, September 28, 2018 (UTC)

Down to a 120/955 cat 3. Forecast to be a 50 mph TS nearing northern Baja, but Rosa might be a 40 mph TS or a TD when she makes landfall. Ryan1000 22:06, September 28, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Rosa (2nd time)
Down to a Category 2. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:45, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * I had a feeling Rosa would get as strong as she did. However, my area is expected to receive rain from the storm's remnants, which in the High Desert region could be a big flash flooding danger. It's not everyday a tropical system impacts my area... I'll be sure to ride it out safely. Hopefully it's nothing bad for us. Northern Baja and the lower desert directly in the cone should be most impacted by Rosa, and our area might receive a lot too. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:44, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Arizona (which has seen extensive flooding from the remants of past EPac storms like Norbert '14 and Octave '83) should also watch out for ex-Rosa. Rosa is being sheared more than she's picking up speed, and now she may be only a depression at her landfall in northern Baja. There's a lot of similarities between Rosa and Raymond '89 in terms of peak intensity and current track. Ryan1000 13:17, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Very true, Raymond's track looks almost identical to Rosa's, except Rosa might landfall more north than Raymond did. The system still retains C2 strength and is expected to landfall in northern Baja on Monday as a TS, and TS warnings and watches have been posted for that region of Baja. For now, it appears the brunt of the impacts in the U.S will affect Arizona and possibly Imperial County, but in the High Desert we could still get at least a few showers. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:00, September 30, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rosa (2nd time)
Down to a TS, but the rainfall threat hasn't even begun yet. Northern Baja and Arizona should watch out. Ryan1000 04:24, October 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * I don't think I'll get much from this. The rain is mainly spreading into Arizona. At most, maybe a few showers tomorrow. Somewhat disappointing considering our drought... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:57, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Rosa (landfall in northern Baja)
Down to a depression just at it's landfall in northern Baja. Rosa's heaviest rain has already spread into much of southern and central Arizona by now. Ryan1000 11:27, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rosa
Dead. Rainfall will continue over Arizona for a few more days though. Ryan1000 17:21, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Approaching the Central Pacific
Another one up at 0/20. Could this be the Walaka that we've all been waiting for? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, September 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Euro makes this a hurricane going out to sea. Please let that happen (unlike the GFS which shows nothing). ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:07, September 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 10/40, hopefully it's Walaka and it stays out to sea because Hawaii has experienced enough this year. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:28, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

20/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:46, September 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * 20/60.Here comes Walaka!No.1 Mobile (talk) 23:28, September 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * 60/90.No.1 Mobile (talk) 20:58, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

97C.INVEST
Now invested. Forecast to turn north down the road, but it'll likely do so to the west of Hawaii, over the french frigate shoals instead. Ryan1000 04:52, September 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70/90; Walaka is almost here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:40, September 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:47, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * At last, we could be getting Walaka! 😊 It's been such a long wait... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:50, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Walaka
Finally after 2 years, we got Walaka. ATM, only named by ATCF, but it's almost guarantee it's Walaka. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     19:32, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it is official. CPHC is now issuing advisories for Walaka. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:53, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * First intensity forecast is aggressive, calling for Walaka to peak at 110 kts on Tuesday. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:13, September 30, 2018 (UTC)

So the CPac naming list has finally been run. Next name will be the first time since 1982 in which Akoni would be used. Anyways, Walaka's current forecast looks a lot like Hurricane Neki of 2009, which also became a major hurricane and eventually passed through the islands northwest of Hawaii without causing too much harm. Ryan1000 02:48, September 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally! It's been a long time waiting for "Walaka" to come. A favorable environment should allow for some rapid intensification and I predict it could get as strong as C4 strength. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:04, September 30, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Walaka
75 mph/988 mbars. Forecast to hit 140 mph now, and a hurricane warning is up for Johnston Atoll. Ryan1000 04:20, October 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * 105/970. Walaka is now forecast to become a 155 mph category 4 storm passing just west of Johnston Atoll. This could possibly be the island's worst hurricane on record if the storm passes that close to them...hopefully they've been evacuated. Ryan1000 11:11, October 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a category 5, or even the strongest storm of the season. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:12, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Walaka
115/961, has a pinhole eye on sattelite imagery and still rapidly exploding as we speak. Also, per the latest discussion: "The tropical cyclone will remain within a deep moist airmass, with vertical wind shear forecast to remain around 10 knots or less through 48 hours, and sea surface temperatures holding in the 84 to 86 Fahrenheit range during this time. As a result, additional rapid intensification is expected tonight and Monday, with the cyclone then forecast to level off just below category 5 status Tuesday and Tuesday night. Given the environment surrounding the system, intensification to a category 5 storm is not out of the question, although none of the intensity guidance explicitly indicate this at this time." Only ERC's can stop this thing from going up to a 5 at this point. Ryan1000 15:01, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

Major now. 100 kts/961 mbars. Leeboy100 Hello!. 15:01, October 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a 125 kt/935 mbar Category 4 and explicitly forecast to reach Category 5 intensity. The CPAC naming list is going out with a bang. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:45, October 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 150 mph/930 mb. Walaka has waited years for this moment, and will not waste its moment in the spotlight. Send Help Please  (talk) 21:02, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Walaka
Hurricane Walaka #9A

HURRICANE WALAKA REACHES CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE 200 PM HST Mon Oct 01 2018 Location: 12.9N 169.6W Maximum sustained winds: 160 MPH Moving: WNW at 9 MPH Minimum pressure: 920 MB

Official now. CPAC now has 2 C5s, Lane and Walaka. Impressive. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:55, October 01, 2018 (UTC)


 * I almost thought CPHC would screw this up,-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:56, October 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Me too, they almost screwed up with Lane. Anyways, Walaka beats Lane for the most intense storm of the Pacific hurricane season by 2 mbars.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:59, October 01, 2018 (UTC)


 * Unbelievable. The last name on the list wants it’s chance to shine before having to wait potentially 35+ more years before being used again. Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t this the first time there have been two Category 5s in the Central Pacific in the same year or is there another year that I’m forgetting? Leeboy100 Hello!. 00:04, October 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Never mind, I forgot about 1994. All three Cat 5s that year were in the CPAC, but were named in the EPAC. Leeboy100 Hello!. 00:07, October 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * With the upgrade to C5 status, 2018 is the first pacific hurricane season since 2002 to have more than one C5. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 00:13, October 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Those two years were well worth the wait; Walaka looks like he'll be the one of the most impressive storms of the year alongside Hector and Lane. Send Help Please  (talk) 03:15, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Also, as mentioned before while Lane was active, 1994 (the only other year with multiple CPac cat 5's) also used this year's naming list (as did 2006 with Ioke), so there's that. Another thing of note, Walaka is the only October cat 5 in the CPac, since it reached that intensity just on the first day of October (yesterday by UTC). Johnston Atoll could potentially be submerged by Walaka if it passes close enough to the island. It used to be an important military base but now it's a wildlife refuge area. Still, the island has never seen a direct hit from a storm with the power of Walaka. It's possible this may be the only usage of the name, if its retired after this year. Ryan1000 03:54, October 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * So shocked this intensified so quickly. 😲 C5?! Wasn't it only a strong tropical storm yesterday night? The list is seriously going out with a bang. At least no people live on Johnston Atoll, but the wildlife there may suffer greatly. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:01, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

As a side note, regarding ACE, with Walaka vaulting to a category 5 storm, the ACE of this year's Pacific hurricane season is now up to a whopping 246 units so far. That puts this year's season as the 4th highest ACE for any Pacific hurricane season, only slightly behind 1990's 250 units, but we're still a bit of a ways behind 2015's 286 and 1992's 295. Also, the CPac has had 101.3 ACE units so far, 25 behind 2015's record of 126, and depending on how much ACE Walaka can rack up before it goes out, then this year may approach or rival 2015's CPac ACE record as well. We still have all of October left to go, and if we get just one more long-tracked major hurricane this month, then this year could have the highest ACE of any Pacific hurricane season on record. Ryan1000 11:39, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Walaka (2nd time)
Walaka's time as a 5 is now over, but this incredibly powerful 155 mph category 4 storm could still demolish Johnston Atoll. Ryan1000 17:21, October 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Johnston Atoll got the eastern, right-front eyewall of Walaka last night, impacts on the island aren't known yet but I doubt they got off easy...Walaka was down to a minimal cat 4 by the time it hit Johnston Atoll and is still at that intensity right now, 130 mph and 946 mbars, and is forecast to move over some of the Marine monuments and the French Frigate Shoals to the northwest of Hawaii, still as a major hurricane. Ryan1000 12:03, October 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * This performwd beyond my expectations. Anyway, I hope Walaka did not cause very severe damage in Johnston Atoll, but I am not that optimistic enough for that. Not sure if any damages in Johnston Atoll could warrant Walaka's retirement though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:31, October 3, 2018 (UTC)

Slightly off-topic, but I just noticed that Walaka means "ruler of the army" in Hawaian. Guess that meaning is fitting for the strongest storm of the season, and only the second-strongest CPac name on record (after Ioke '06, which also formed under this naming list 12 years ago). Ryan1000 12:35, October 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * New advisory is out, Walaka intensified up to 140 mph and 944 mbars. Forecast to hit the Marine national monument islands as a strong cat 3. Ryan1000 13:47, October 3, 2018 (UTC)

Now down to a strong 3, 125 mph and 946 mbars. Moving north-northeast fairly rapidly, and will rush through the small shoals and marine monument islands northwest of Hawaii later tonight. Would likely be the first time a hurricane this strong hit them. Ryan1000 03:52, October 4, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Walaka (2nd time)
Was down to a cat 2 earlier, but now it's a 1 and Walaka is rapidly falling apart in the north Central Pacific. Will likely become extratropical later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 03:52, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Goodbye to an awesome over-achieving system! Even if it did tear apart Johnston Atoll... should weaken to a TS overnight and then accelerate towards Alaska as an extratropical system. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:04, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Walaka (2nd time)
Farewell, Walaka, it was nice tracking you! Walaka should become extratropical within the next two days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:29, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Walaka
Gone now. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     16:27, October 06, 2018 (UTC)
 * WALAKA WAS ONE MAD TING! HE THRASHED LANE BY 2MBAR! (WHO WANTS TO SEE MY PARODY OF MAMBO NO. 5? SCROLL DOWN TO SERGIO'S SECTION AND COMMENT!) FreedFromDesire (talk) 16:32, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SSE of Mexico, West of the Panama/Costa Rica border
0/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:04, September 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now 10/40.No.1 Mobile (talk) 23:28, September 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * Increased to 30/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:28, September 27, 2018 (UTC)


 * 40/70. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:04, September 27, 2018 (UTC)


 * 50/80.Sergio coming soon.No.1 Mobile (talk) 20:58, September 27, 2018 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested, and could, according to the GFS ensemble members, recurve to hit Baja like Rosa. Should be watched out for down the road. Ryan1000 04:52, September 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * 100/100 now. Still not yet upgraded by NHC though. JTWC has issued a TCFA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:46, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's almost certain to become Sergio at this point... "S" name already? Probably another significant storm in the making, and maybe yet another major. If it recurves, hopefully it stays a little more south because I don't know if my area can stand a double-whammy from tropical systems. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:48, September 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sergio
Special advisory.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:49, September 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * It seems the initial GFS ensemble tracks have been off, and Sergio will likely be a fishspinner on its current course. Also, forecast peak is only 110 mph, like John and Fabio. If Sergio stays at sea, hopefully he can briefly become a major, unlike John and Fabio which didn't. Ryan1000 20:19, September 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * A major is now in the forecast. I hope Sergio will peak as a C3 because it seems like the EPac this year is cursed to avoid a peak intensity in the C3 range (seriously, no storm this year has peaked at that category). Looking much more likely to be a fishspinner than Rosa. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:08, September 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sergio is still not a hurricane yet... IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 00:20, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Sergio
Now a hurricane. 75/992.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:52, October 02, 2018 (UTC)


 * Sergio looks like he's developing a large, broad structure, and is now forecast to only briefly become a major...man, I really hope Sergio doesn't screw this one up like Fabio and John did. Ryan1000 03:57, October 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * I hope it doesn't screw it up either, I want to see a C3-peaking storm in this basin for once. Yet another 110 mph Failicia would be absolutely disappointing. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:04, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Up to category 2...come on Sergio, just a little more...Ryan1000 17:21, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Sergio
100 kts/965 mbar. Made it, and is now forecast to peak as a 120-kt Category 4. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:33, October 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Looks like a Cat. 3 peak will elude yet another storm... Send Help Please  (talk) 21:01, October 2, 2018 (UTC)

With Sergio becoming a major hurricane and Walaka holding on as one, 2015 now has a whopping 256.9 ACE units racked up so far, dethroning 1990 for the 3rd-highest ACE of any Pacific hurricane season on record, and not even 30 ACE units behind 2015's 286 or even 40 ACE units behind 1992's all-time record of 295. We're rapidly approaching their ACE records, and we easily could beat those two seasons if we get just one or two more good majors sometime later in October. Furthermore, if Sergio becomes a category 4 hurricane, we'd have 9 category 4 hurricanes this year, only one behind 2015's record of 10, and with 9 major hurricanes, we're only 2 behind tying 2015's record of 11. Ryan1000 12:21, October 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a C4, the 8th of that intensity. With Sergio now a C4, 2018 beats 2015 for the most recorded amount of C4s (2015 had 7 where 2018 now has 8, excluding Walaka, which would be 9)  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:39, October 04, 2018 (UTC)

Well, if you're only referring to Cat 4's while east of the CPac (140 west), that's true, though I was counting the CPac in that case, since it's considered a subset for the EPac overall. Counting the CPac, 2018 is still short of 2015, which had as many cat 4's as 1992 did majors. Also, if we exclude the CPac, this year's ACE isn't close to 1990 or 1992's EPac proper ACE thus far. Ryan1000 03:46, October 4, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 120 knots and 943 mb. Can Sergio go further? ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:13, October 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * We're up to 267.35 ACE units as we speak with this...we'll be past 275 or so when Sergio is done for. What an incredible year for ACE. Ryan1000 13:14, October 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * This year is 3rd place now ACE-wise. The EPac is really winning this year, but once again a storm eludes a C3 peak. It really seems like the EPac is cursed this year to not produce C3-peaking storms... but at least C4 is still a fantastic intensity, even if we have had a huge amount of C4-peaking storms this year. Anyway, Sergio has weakened to a C3 and should gradually weaken further over time. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:51, October 5, 2018 (UTC)

Sergio's down to 100 knots, but he's still going to stick around for the next five days. Also, Ryan, we're now already at 276 units of ACE... seriously we'll be near or even past 2015 by the time Sergio dissipates. And then there's still half of October and the entirety of November left. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:23, October 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Walaka is still hanging on so that helped the ACE go up, along with Sergio...we just one more good fishspinning major later this month and the all-time Pacific hurricane season ACE record is as good as 2018's. Ryan1000 00:08, October 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * ACE is up to 277, within 10 units of 2015. Send Help Please  (talk) 02:25, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

Sergio also intensified briefly again, and is now up to 125/953. Forecast to recurve northeast and weaken later on, but he's so far out to sea that he likely won't reach Mexico as a TC. Ryan1000 05:33, October 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's not everyday you see an EPac storm recurve in that fashion. But I agree that Mexico will get little, if anything, from Sergio's remnants. Maybe a few rain showers there, but that's it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:49, October 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * To sum up the season so far:
 * A little bit of Walaka in my life
 * A little bit of Lane by my side
 * A little bit of Aletta is all I need
 * A little bit of Bud is what I see
 * A little bit of Hector in the sun
 * A little bit of Olivia all night long
 * A little bit of Rosa, here I am
 * A little bit of Sergio turns me on
 * Category Number 4+!
 * That song got stuck in my head after a mad night of Bongo's Bingo... Also I'm pumped up for a massive 1970s-themed house party tonight! All the C4+ hurricanes are invited!
 * THE LEGENDARY CRAZY CYCLONE PARTY COMES TO THE PACIFIC OCEAN FOR THE WORLD'S BIGGEST PARTY! CALLING ON A MASSIVE RAVE ONCE THE ACE HITS 300! SYSTEMS, SERGIO, KEEP PUTTING IN THE ACE AND ONCE THAT METER HITS 300 WE GETTIN OUT THE FOAM, GLOWSTICKS, INFLATABLES, DJS, LIGHTS, DRINKS STARTING FROM £2 AND 3000 CRAZY CYCLONES OF ALL AGES RANGING FROM THE 1935 LABOUR DAY HURRICANE TO HURRICANE SERGIO OF 2018! SPECIAL GUESTS INCLUDE TOM ZANETTI, K.O. KANE, WHEE'D, AL KOHL, TIESTO, PAUL OAKENFOLD, EVERY 1990S TECHNO DJ YOU CAN NAME AND MANY MORE! DON'T MISS OUT! GET YOUR TICKETS ON FATSOMA FOR JUST £20!  BOOK YOUR TICKETS NOW! 85% SOLD OUT! 

FreedFromDesire (talk) 15:56, October 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Pressure is down to 950 mb, but winds are the same. Only 6 more units of ACE, and 2018 is in second place. Send Help Please  (talk) 17:27, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * What did you think of what I wrote above? --FreedFromDesire (talk) 17:45, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * It is quite nice, and a fitting summary of an impressive year for TCs in this basin. I just wish that link actually lead somewhere, it'd be even funnier if it did. Send Help Please  (talk) 17:53, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Glad to hear you enjoy getting smashed in clubs with the hurricanes! Hector and Lane especially would be IMMORTAL BEINGS! Off topic, but who are you most excited to see? --FreedFromDesire (talk) 18:36, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

282 ACE units...just 4 more from 2nd place, and 13 away from 1992's all-time record... Ryan1000 21:35, October 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Sergio might go under major hurricane intensity at the next advisory as ATCF suggests, but ACE will cross 285 at that time, which is perilously close to 2015. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:46, October 7, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Sergio (2nd time)
Under major hurricane status. Looks like Sergio is getting annular characteristics, and should make a U-turn soon. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:06, October 07, 2018 (UTC)

286.2 ACE units. For some perspective, 2015 ended at 286.6. Unless Sergio collapses immediately (which won't happen), 2018 is all but certain to have the second-highest ACE for any Pacific hurricane season at the next advisory, only 9 units behind 1992. Ryan1000 22:32, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * did yall look at my thing i wrote above --FreedFromDesire (talk) 23:00, October 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * After all the strong, long lived storms this year, I won't be surprised if we reach an ACE total of at least 300 and reach the "W" name on the naming list. This is one crazy year. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:44, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sergio is now down to 90 mph. What a season for the EPac though. And we are just at the beginning of October (though no new AOIs are present in all the Pacific basins right now). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:20, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

We could easily get one or two more good storms after Sergio however, and if we get just one more good major hurricane, we will inevitably break 1992's ACE record and 300 ACE units. And Rara, try to keep things on topic, not saying it isn't exiting to see a fishspinning major hurricane, but we should try to keep it as close to on topic as possible, and not make comparisons to things outside of HWiki in general. Ryan1000 09:14, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm not "rara", I'm Matthias, from Germany but lived in the UK since I was 3. But I know rara from uni. anyway SERGIO BE BRINGIN UP DAT STORM SERGIO TO MEXICO YEY --FreedFromDesire (talk) 12:27, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * 85 mph/978 mb as of latest advisory. Sergio has officially joined the 30+ ACE total club of this year with Hector, Lane, and Norman. Also, this season has trumped 2015 to become the second greatest ACE producing season in E Pac history. Send Help Please  (talk) 21:01, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Sorry, thought it was an alt account, nvm. But, in any instance, try to keep things on topic. We've now got a whopping 288.6 ACE units, only 7 away from 1992. I don't even think we need another major hurricane by this point to break 1992, even a decent category 1 or 2 fishspinner could rack up enough ACE to break past 1992. Ryan1000 21:26, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * 2018 is now a shoo-in for the all time ACE record and might reach 300. What an intense and crazy season it's been. Just one more hurricane (Tara or Akoni) would put us past the record for sure. Anyway, Sergio has been hanging on and expected to reach Baja as a TS and then affect Texas as remnants. I'm pretty sure that kind of track is unusual for the EPac. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:10, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sergio (2nd time)
As Michael becomes a major and Leslie about to become a hurricane again in the Pacific, Sergio is beginning to decline. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:07, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sergio is maintaining organization surprisingly well as he's moving quickly northeast towards Mexico, though I'm not thinking he'll be particularly severe for Baja. Also, 292.2 ACE units. Even just one more tropical storm would bring us past 1992's ACE by now. Ryan1000 06:50, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now racing headlong into Baja and still a strong TS. I agree that it probably won't be too bad there. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:20, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

293.1 ACE units...just 3 more and 1992 is toast. We don't even need another hurricane by now, just another moderate late-season tropical storm will bring us past 1992's ACE. Ryan1000 04:43, October 12, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Sergio
Moved inland over Mexico and died. Ryan1000 22:36, October 12, 2018 (UTC)