Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is coming up, and the betting pools are up. I'll make some predictions for this season later, but if any of you guys have pre-season predictions, feel free to post them below. Ryan1000 03:56, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * CPHC will be merging their site to the NHC's in May. This should make finding advisories for CPAC storms even easier. Won't change the pace of CPHC TCRs though. Here's some other changes for this season.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:40, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * ...and the CPHC site is gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:24, May 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * The 2019 Pacific hurricane season has now officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  00:00, May 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Far Southwestern East Pacific
Yet another one has appeared on the 5-day outlook at 0/20 and looks like it could become something after moving into the Central Pacific in the next several days. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:28, September 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:30, September 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20, I'm skeptical if it will even be anything at this rate. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:11, September 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back up to 0/30. We'll see if this develops or not. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:44, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * This briefly went back down to 0/20 earlier this morning, but now it has appeared on the two day outlook with chances at 10/20. Looks like this is not as far southwest as I originally thought. However, the chances for it becoming Octave look quite slim. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:28, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/40. This one might make it. Beatissima (talk) 01:11, October 2, 2019 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
It's been invested as well. Maybe this could make it to Octave. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:54, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 20/40. -- Java Hurricane  12:57, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/40. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:09, October 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/30, this doesn't look like it will become much. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:54, October 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * This was at 20/20 earlier this morning, but now is back up to 30/30. An interesting interaction could occur between this and the 10/10 disturbance to its west. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:25, October 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, this and the below system are expected to merge pretty soon. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:14, October 5, 2019 (UTC)

No longer on the TWO. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:53, October 6, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of 95E
This has popped up at 10/10 though I highly doubt development. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:33, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on the TWO. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:54, October 6, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of Mexico
Finally, something that could develop in EPac. 0/30 on the 5-day outlook. Could we see Octave? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:12, October 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/50. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:51, October 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/70. Here comes Octave! ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:21, October 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the 2-day outlook, increased to 20/70. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:29, October 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 40/80, I expect it to form over the weekend or by early next week at latest. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:09, October 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up further to 50/80. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:38, October 10, 2019 (UTC)

Now 60/90, guaranteed to become Octave at this rate. Strangely still not invested. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  02:56, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Finally invested and up to 70/90, and could see a TD by tomorrow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:47, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 80/90, anytime now... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:23, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * 90/90! Almost there! ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:48, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/70. The window is small and this might not even surpass TD intensity. Imagine this became a 90% bust. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:49, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down further to 60/60, will it bust? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:59, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 50/50, the window is closing... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:14, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

Down further to 40/40, looks like this busted unless a surprise occurs. Wow, when was the last time there was a 90% bust? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:26, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Development becoming even less likely, down to 30/30. It'll most likely just be ripped apart by upper-level winds from here on out, cementing its legacy as an epically busting 90% failure. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:13, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20. Although it was a huge bust, maybe we should be thankful that it didn't steal a precious name off the list (Octave) 🥰 ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:03, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%, should be off the TWO pretty soon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:24, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO, what a laughable bust. 😂 Also it's hilarious that I was the only one who ever posted about this AOI. The Atlantic bias is seriously strong with users on this wiki. These forums really need more users who are also interested in other basins. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:45, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Southeastern Mexico
New one at 0/20, we could be up to Priscilla within a week. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:24, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:50, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/40, looks to be Priscilla assuming 96E becomes Octave. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:05, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/50. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:12, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up further to 0/60, might be Octave instead due to 96E moving into unfavorable conditions by Monday. If 96E steals a name, this would still be Priscilla. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:46, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the 2-day outlook, 10/60. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:00, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 20/70, likely to become Octave now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:15, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 30/70. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:27, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 40/80. Unlike 96E, this will likely become a tropical cyclone. Also forecast to move right by Mexico which as of now feels a bit Narda/Lorena-ish 😐 ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:06, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
It's been invested now. Up to 50/80 and looking to be Octave. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:26, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 60/80. Land interaction could inhibit further development by late this week. Again, if this develops, it's basically going to be Lorena 3.0 (Narda was 2.0). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:47, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
New one at 20/20 but this looks less likely for development due to not-ideal environmental conditions. Maybe it'll pull a surprise though, who knows... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:50, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:14, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%, not going to develop due to upper-level winds. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:43, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's dead. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:51, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: 300 Miles SW of Lihue, Hawaii
An AOI has appeared on the CPHC outlook, currently 20/20 but only has 48 hours to develop before conditions become unfavorable. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:07, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

92C.INVEST
The invest designation it got overnight. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:17, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ema
This BLEW UP. We surprisingly got another CPac named storm. Forecast to remain weak so unfortunately this feels like a name stealer. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:17, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this is not forecast to become strong, but it's neat to see another CPac named storm. Like Akoni, Ema was previously used in 1982, but neither this nor the previous Ema did (or will do) much. Ema's quite a safe distance from Hawaii, though the outermost rainbands are bringing some rain to Kauai at this moment. Ryan1000 15:23, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, that was quite an unexpected formation pulled off by Ema. Sadly forcasted to remain a weak TS, but at least we got another CPac storm.  Sandy 156   :)  18:08, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Um, hello, Ema! Beatissima (talk) 18:59, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

Slightly stronger per latest advisory: 50 mph, 1003 mb. TS warning issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument (Nihoa to French Frigate Shoalsto Maro Reef). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:48, October 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * Weakened to 45 mph/1005 mbar. I was also a bit surprised it got up to 50 mph but it should be weakening for good from here on out. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:54, October 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 40 mph/1006 mbar and expected to dissipate by tomorrow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:18, October 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * Pressure up to 1007 mbar as it continues weakening, still 40 mph. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:28, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ema
Downgraded to a TD, 35 mph/1007 mbar, and should dissipate tomorrow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:15, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pressure up to 1008 mbar, still 35 mph. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:08, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Ema
It has died, thanks for waking up the CPac! ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:23, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.

East Pacific:
 * <font color="#eeff77">Alvin : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#AF0">C - Began the EPac season unusually late - the latest ever recorded. Stayed out to sea and barely met the criteria for hurricane intensity.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Barbara : <font color="#95A">0.001%, <font color="#00F">A+ - An early season C4 that peaked just below C5 intensity. Amazing storm in general despite not reaching C5. Barely caused any impacts at all in Hawaii.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Very short-lived forgettable TS, but at least it reached 50 mph.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Four-E : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - Forgettable failure, at least no name was stolen.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dalila : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Weak, but lingered for a few days. At least it was better than Gil and Henriette below.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Erick : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#05F">A - Reached C4, but barely. Pretty amazing to track the strongest "Erick" on record. Didn't do jack sh!t to Hawaii.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Flossie : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#AF0">C - Relatively long-lived despite peaking as a minimal hurricane. Passed near Hawaii as a dying storm but no damage or deaths. A bit of a disappointment though because it was initially thought to have a good chance at major status.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - Laughable failure #1 of early August. Lasted not even two days in total (15:00 UTC 8/3 to 3:00 UTC 8/5) and didn't even surpass 40 mph/1006 mb. What a disgrace.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Henriette : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - Laughable failure #2 of early August. Lasted even shorter than Gil, lol. And being just 1 mbar stronger doesn't help matters, it still peaked at only 40 mph.
 * <font color="#99ff99">Ivo : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F60">D- - Barely affected parts of Mexico causing absolutely no real negative effects whatsoever. At least it became a strong 65 mph tropical storm, which saves it from a failing grade, even though it was initially forecast to become a hurricane.
 * <font color="#ffbb00">Juliette : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#0AF">A- - A nice fishspinner and became the first EPac storm to peak as a C3 since Otis in 2017.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Kiko : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#05F">A - Another nice fishie. Gets points for holding on for so long after weakening from a C4.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Lorena : <font color="#00A">5%, <font color="#5F0">C+ - One of the most impactful of the season so far (along with Narda), hopefully it wasn't too bad. I highly doubt retirement though unless it ends up worse than feared.
 * <font color="#99ff99">Mario : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#FC0">D+ - Stayed offshore so it gets a 0% from me. Despite it originally being forecast to become a hurricane, it was still a bit resilient when it was faced with Lorena's shear.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Narda : <font color="#00A">8%, <font color="#F30">E - Quite impacting for Mexico. Retirement chances are still preliminary but already 2 deaths have occurred, which is worse than Lorena.

Central Pacific:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - A short-lived, pathetic name-stealer. At least it got named in the CPac, which prevents the "Z" grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ema : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F30">E - A fishspinner, gets some grading credit for its surprising formation and intensification to 50 mph.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD/SD, <font color="#00faf4">TS/SS (40-50 mph) , <font color="#99ff99">TS/SS (60-70 mph) , <font color="#eeff77">C1 , <font color="#ffee40">C2 , <font color="#ffbb00">C3 , <font color="#ff7700">C4 , <font color="#ff0000">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#880033">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background, the color for "C5" was made more stark due to the severely of such storms, and a new color was added for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) so they would not be in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms that might be Category 6s if the category was introduced. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% ; <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: 

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: 

Staying: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Akoni, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Mario, Narda

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * Ema - Staying, expected to remain weak and away from land

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

None yet.

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: --



How Far Can This Season Go?= Current outlook:
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Raymond.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Priscilla, or go further to Sonia.
 * Tico or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Octave or before is also unlikely.
 * In the Central Pacific, it is possible, but not too likely, that Ema will be used this year. For Hone and beyond, it is looking unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see 0-1 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. There's only a short window now for any devastating system to occur, which could be either in this month or November. However, if Narda or even Lorena caused impacts that were worse than expected, they could maybe have a chance.

East Pacific:
 * Chances that Octave will be used: <font color="#500">96% - I expect to see this by mid-October.
 * Chances that Priscilla will be used: <font color="#D00">77% - Highly likely to reach this name. Expect to see this by the end of October.
 * Chances that Raymond will be used: <font color="#F90">55% - Looking most likely to end here. Probably coming in November.
 * Chances that Sonia will be used: <font color="#6C0">39% - An outside chance, but chances start to be in favor of not getting here.
 * Chances that Tico will be used: <font color="#0A5">23% - Chances decline below 1/4 at this point. I doubt this will come.
 * Chances that Velma will be used: <font color="#05A">10% - A miracle October/November explosion will somehow have to occur.
 * Chances that Wallis will be used: <font color="#30A">3% - Extremely unlikely to get this far - activity shouldn't rival last year.
 * Chances that Xina will be used: <font color="#95A">0.2% - 2018 got this far, but this year won't.
 * Chances that York or anything beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - Not gonna happen.

Central Pacific:
 * Chances that Hone will be used: <font color="#3B0">30% - I doubt we will get another CPac storm late in the year.
 * Chances that Iona will be used: <font color="#00A">5% - A miracle CPac explosion shouldn't happen this year.
 * Chances that Keli will be used: <font color="#95A">0.01% - Nope!
 * Chances that Lala or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - 2015-level activity will not happen for sure.

Original forecast from August 24 for comparison:
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Sonia.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Priscilla or Raymond, or go further to Tico or Velma.
 * Wallis or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Octave or before is also unlikely.
 * In the Central Pacific, it is likely that Akoni will be used this year. For Ema and beyond, it is looking unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see at most 1 system this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. Any devastating system is most likely to occur in September or October.

East Pacific:
 * Chances that Juliette will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - The 0/30 system on the 5-day outlook might become this. If not, there's no chance that it will not form this year.
 * Chances that Kiko will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should form by the start of September.
 * Chances that Lorena will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - May arrive in early-mid September.
 * Chances that Mario will be used: <font color="#300">99.999% - I expect to see this in mid-late September.
 * Chances that Narda will be used: <font color="#300">99% - Will most likely be a late-September storm. *currently up to here*
 * Chances that Octave will be used: <font color="#700">93% - I expect to see this in early October.
 * Chances that Priscilla will be used: <font color="#B00">80% - Highly likely to reach this name. Expect to see this in October.
 * Chances that Raymond will be used: <font color="#F30">69% - Also likely that we will reach this name, and might be a later October storm.
 * Chances that Sonia will be used: <font color="#F90">55% - Chances are still in favor for the season getting this far. Assuming it does form, it might be in November and might conclude the season.
 * Chances that Tico will be used: <font color="#9D0">40% - Chances decline below a coin toss at this point. If Tico does come, it should be a November or post-season surprise.
 * Chances that Velma will be used: <font color="#0A0">28% - Small chance of getting this far, although I wouldn't count on it.
 * Chances that Wallis will be used: <font color="#05A">13% - Very unlikely to get this far - activity doesn't seem like it will match last year.
 * Chances that Xina will be used: <font color="#00A">6% - 2018 got this far, but last year seemed more active and conducive than this year. I highly doubt we will get this far.
 * Chances that York will be used: <font color="#30A">2% - Surpassing last year? Nah, not happening.
 * Chances that Zelda will be used: <font color="#95A">0.1% - The chances reach almost zero at this point. We're not exhausting the list this year.
 * Chances that Anything beyond (Greeks?) will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - This year will not be anything exceptional. Surpassing 1992 is out of the cards.

Central Pacific: ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:16, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 15:31, October 14, 2019 (UTC))
 * Chances that Akoni will be used: <font color="#F00">72% - I'll give this slightly less than a 3/4 chance. Some years go by without any CPac formations, but some can also have one or even multiple formations, so we'll see what happens.
 * Chances that Ema will be used: <font color="#0A0">28% - Slight chance, but probably not this year. *currently up to here*
 * Chances that Hone will be used: <font color="#00A">9% - I really doubt it.
 * Chances that Iona will be used: <font color="#60A">0.5% - A miracle CPac explosion shouldn't happen this year.
 * Chances that Keli or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - Nope!

Sandy's retirements and grades
Time to judge the EPac right now!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#80CCFF">PTC, <font color="#5EBAFF">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#F3E5AB">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Alvin : <font color="00CCFF">B- ,  0%  — The latest recorded start of the basin, Alvin managed to succeed NHC’s forecast and become a minimal hurricane before dying out.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Barbara : <font color="CD7F32">A++ , <font color="00CC00">0.01%  — A beautiful and amazing high-end Category 4 hurricane that had minimal impacts on Hawaii but otherwise, it’s very likely it’ll stay.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme :  E ,  0%  — A relatively short-lived storm that peaked at 50 mph, raising it to an E due to Dailia and Gil.


 * <font color="#5EBAFF">Four-E :  F ,  N/A  — Fail, but at least it wasn’t a name stealer.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Dailia :  F ,  0%  — A failure, but at least it lived longer and was stronger than Gil and Henriette.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Erick : <font color="00CC66">A ,  0%  — Barely held on to C4 for 12 hours but otherwise, it’s a great storm.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Flossie : <font color="3333CC">C- ,  0%  — Well underperformed its forecast for a C3, only peaking at an 80 mph C1 hurricane. It was long-lived however, so I’ll give her credit to that.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil :  Z ,  Fail%  — Gilma’s brother, that’s all I have to explain.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Henriette :  Z ,  Fail%  — Good job EPac, you produced another failicia! Barely stronger than Gil though.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo :  D- ,  0%  — I was expecting a C3 at the most for this system when it was an invest, but it underperformed miserably and never became a hurricane.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Juliette : <font color="00CC66">A ,  0%  — It was nice to see the first C3 since Otis of 2017.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni :  E ,  0%  — A weak and short-lived storm, but gets credit for forming in the CPac and pulling off a surprise formation.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Kiko : <font color="0000FF">TBA  — currently active.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Lorena :  C ,  10%  — Nice to see another hurricane, no deaths reported thankfully (as of now). Retirement probability will maybe change once the damages are released.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Mario : <font color="0000FF">TBA  — currently active.

That’s it for now folks!

 Sandy 156   :)  23:46, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 18:21, September 22, 2019 (UTC)]

Harveycane's predictions and grades
Overview=

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#D4AF37">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Formation chance/retirement percentages:
 * <font color="#666">0% 
 * <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9%  (Nearly 0%)
 * <font color="#00FFFF">1-9%  (Extremely unlikely)
 * <font color="#00D5D5">10-19%  (Very unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A0A0">20-29%  (Unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A000">30-39%  (Somewhat unlikely)
 * <font color="#FFC800">40-49%  (Medium)
 * <font color="#FF8800">50-59%  (Somewhat likely)
 * <font color="#E80000">60-69%  (Likely)
 * <font color="#B40000">70-79%  (Very likely)
 * <font color="#800000">80-89%  (Extremely likely)
 * <font color="#000000">90-99%  (Nearly certain)
 * <font color="#000080">100%  (Certain)

Retirement predictions and grades=
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Alvin : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#FF0">C- - After over a month and a half we finally get a hurricane. Should have formed much earlier, and it would have gotten a better grade.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Barbara : <font color="#AFFFFF">0.1%, <font color="#00F">A+ - Great storm! Became a high end C4 and looked good at satellite peak. This is what made me gain hope for the basin, until Gil and Henriette came. Only caused minimal damage, so its staying.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#F00">E - Short lived, crappy looking like the other fails in the season. However, it at least reached 50 mph.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Four-E : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Thank you for not wasting a name. However, you still were a fail.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dalila : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - A fail, but at least it didn't fail too bad unlike Gil and Henriette.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Erick : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#0CC">A - Great storm that just barely reached C4 status. It would have a higher grade if it were stronger though.
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Flossie : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#CF0">C - Reached hurricane status, but they forecasted a major once, which is why the grade is low.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil : <font color="#666">Failippe%, <font color="#600">Z - Come back in 2025 when you're ready to redeem yourself.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Failiette : <font color="#666">Terrible%, <font color="#600">Z - You too, Henriette. You were just as bad as Gil.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo : <font color="#666">Noob%, <font color="#300">Z- - You had one job, and that was to be something promising, AT LEAST a hurricane or something. But no, you decided to fail. Please redeem yourself, all three of you, in 2025. By the way, after further thoughts, I decided to give it a Z- for being such a waste of a potentially good storm.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Juliette : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#0CC">A - Congratulaions, you didn’t bust! Jkjk, but nonetheless this was an interesting fishspinner to track.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Kiko : <font color="#666">TBD%, <font color="#666">TBD - come on die already omg
 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Short lived name stealer. Next!
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Lorena* : Up to <font color="#00D5D5">10%, <font color="#6F0">B- - Fortunately nobody died (for now), but she caused flooding in the states of Colima and Jalisco. Gets a B- for becoming a hurricane while not initially forecasted to, but impacts limited the grade from going higher. Also, she nearly cut Mario's life short, but fortunately that did not happen.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Mario : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#F60">D - Did it's best in the face of his sister Lorena, but didn't reach hurricane status despite being forecasted to multiple times.

* Both Mario (91E) and Lorena (92E) formed simultaneously, although Mario (91E) was named later.

Overall season rating (tentative): <font color="#FC0">D+  - Unfortunately, the Eastern Pacific isn't doing so good as well. Yes, I am looking at these two pathetic failures. We could be on track to a below average season here. Future storm formation chances = Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):

Eastern Pacific:
 * Narda - <font color="#000000">99% - May likely form from the Central America invest, otherwise it will come hopefully by the end of September.
 * Octave - <font color="#000000">91% - Either in late September (probably not) or early October.
 * Priscilla - <font color="#800000">84% - Most likely going to be an October storm.
 * Raymond - <font color="#B40000">72% - Most likely a mid-October storm. Probably going to break the ongoing trend of every storm named Raymond being the strongest storm of the season.
 * Sonia - <font color="#FF8800">57% - Probably going to be a late-October storm. From here chances of formation drop dramatically.
 * Tico - <font color="#00A000">39% - Unlikely to form. I wont be surprised if this doesn't form.
 * Velma - <font color="#00A0A0">23% - Chances are low, but nonzero.
 * Wallis - <font color="#00D5D5">10% - Nope, we are not getting close to 2018 in any way.
 * Xina - <font color="#00FFFF">3% - A miracle explosion would have to happen, and that is not happening this into the season.
 * York - <font color="#AFFFFF">0.1% - It is almost impossible to reach here.
 * Zelda and beyond - <font color="#666">0% - Yeah, maybe it will. But only in your hypothetical what-might-have-been season.

Central Pacific: Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  03:47, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Ema - <font color="#00D5D5">34% - Chances for a second Central Pacific storm aren’t as low as I thought.
 * Hone - <font color="#AFFFFF">0.8% - Almost impossible to form at this point.
 * Iona and beyond - <font color="#666">0% - Trust me, a hyperactive Atlantic season this year will still be more likely than reaching here.

East Pacific Hurricane:
The basin has seen many new storms form within the past month.
 * Hurricane Alvin - Nice storm, won't be retired this year. (0%)
 * Hurricane Barbara - Strongest storm so far, won't be retired. (0%)
 * Hurricane Erick - Another fishspinner C4, it won't be retired. (0%)
 * Hurricane Flossie - Again, won't be retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Ivo - Almost became a hurricane. (0%)
 * Hurricane Juliette - Finally a major fishspinner hurricane. (0%)
 * Hurricane Kiko - Third C4 of the season, and it just doesn't know when to stop. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Lorena - Something to be on the lookout for at it approaches Mexico. (??%)
 * Tropical Storm Mario - Name of a video game character. May also become a hurricane like Lorena. (??%)
 * Tropical Storms Cosme, Dalila, Gil, and Henriette - Failures, all failures. (0%)

Central Pacific Hurricane:
Three storms so far in this basin, and all three were EPAC-CPAC crossovers: TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:42, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Erick - Formidable hurricane in the Central Pacific, but won't get retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Flossie - Became weak when it entered this basin. Did affect Hawaii, though. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Akoni - Well, it tried. (0%)

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

 * C1 Alvin - 0%
 * C4 Barbara - 0%
 * TS Cosme - 0%
 * TD Four-E - N/A
 * TS Dalila - 0%
 * C4 Erick - 0%
 * C1 Flossie - 0%
 * TS Gil - 0%
 * TS Henriette - 0%
 * TS Ivo - 0%
 * C3 Juliette - 0%
 * TS Akoni - 0%
 * C4 Kiko - 0%
 * C1 Lorena - 10%
 * TS Mario - 0%
 * TS Narda - 25%
 * TS Ema - 0%

Jas/A2.0's retirement forecast
(For now, I won't grade the storms in this basin.)
 * Alvin to Juliette - 0% - Not happening. There are a few spectacles (yes, I'm talking about Barbara & Erick), but realistically, none of them will go.
 * Akoni - 0% - What a flop.
 * Kiko - 0.5% - That .5 is for being a persistent system.
 * Lorena - 5% - Had land impacts but so far, so good. Most likely to stay in the lists.
 * Mario - 0% - Not going anywhere soon.

[''Originally posted by Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:49, September 28, 2019 (UTC). Last updated by Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:49, September 28, 2019 (UTC).'']

Post-season Changes
Four-E's TCR has been released.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:24, August 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * That was fast...4-E's TCR was finished less than a month after it formed. But wasn't surprising, considering how short-lived and insignificant it was. Anyways, duration was cut a day short. Now do Cosme, Dalila, and Gil in that time frame, NHC. Ryan1000 09:33, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Cosme also out too.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

No changes to Cosme's intensity, but duration got cut 1 day short. Ryan1000 20:37, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Dalila is out, but was finished on the 9th, only two weeks after it dissipated. Fairly fast, and only the pressure was downed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 11:45, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Minor mistake, Dalila's wind speeds were actually upped 5 mph in its TCR.  Sandy 156   :)  06:59, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

Alvin's TCR is out, but was finished by August 22. Only held hurricane status for 6 hours but other than that, no major changes have been made.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Remember 9/11 05:04, September 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Barbara is out, but was finished on August 25. Pressure got buffed to 930 but it wasn't upgraded to a cat 5. Also, duration was cut a day short. Ryan1000 11:53, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

Erick came out today, no changes to intensity but like Barbara, the duration was cut a day short at the end. Ryan1000 21:37, September 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Henriette is out; released a couple days ago. For some reason, this sad storm got upped to 45 mph.  Sandy 156   :)  05:56, October 11, 2019 (UTC)