Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season

96W.INVEST
Code yellow on JTWC. Has a lot of ocean ahead of it though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:45, July 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Medium chance of formation now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:37, July 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now has a high chance of forming from JTWC. Wow the WPAC activity is rising. -- Roy 25  16:42, July 21, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15W
Formed into a depression, with that, now there are 5 active depressions in this basin. -- Roy 25  03:48, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * May peak as a Category 1-equivalent typhoon later this week. This may be Wukong (or Jongdari, or perhaps even Shanshan?) if conditions turn out to be very conducive for development. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:19, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

This could be something to watch out for, the current JTWC forecast takes this towards Japan as a typhoon down the road, but the other two storms (13W, or Josie, and 14W), aren't expected to do much. Ryan1000 13:04, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * The WPac is on fire!!! 😲 Out of all the systems, this is perhaps the most concerning one. Like Ryan said this will be a typhoon threat to Japan, and JTWC takes it up to 85 knots (although it could get stronger than that). ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, July 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still not visible on JMA's typhoon page, but this is likely to be nicknamed as "TD b" as 13W is "TD a" and 14W is "TD c". Anyway, this is brewing to become a significant storm for Japan and the rest of (north) east Asia, based on the JTWC forecast track. May also enhance the southwest monsoon which has punished the Philippine island of Luzon since Son-Tinh/Henry a week ago. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:50, July 22, 2018 (UTC)

This will be Jongdari. Expected not to receive a PAGASA name as it is expected to move away from the Philippines and its area of responsibility. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:25, July 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Still a TD according to both agencies, but the JTWC's forecast map has a typhoon-strength system passing very near or over Tokyo between the 96 and 120 hour forecast points. This is not looking good for Japan who have yet to have a reprieve from severe weather over the past month. Over 220 were killed in floods at the beginning of July, and at least 80 have died from the heat wave which has brought temperatures near Tokyo to over 40°C (aka 104°F). Future-Jongdari may be able to end the heat wave but nevertheless ending the heat wave with a typhoon is excessive. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:30, July 24, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jongdari
Finally upgraded to a TS by both JMA and JTWC. Bad for the Tokyo area; this is forecast to hit the Kantō region by the weekend. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:02, July 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * Jongdari (which replaced Sonamu in 2013) is expected to be a 110 mph cat 2 right now, around the same strength of Lan last year which hit Tokyo as well, but Jongdari's track (curving northwest to hit Tokyo from the southeast) is rare for the WPac, TS Lionrock of 2016 (formerly a typhoon) also hit eastern Japan that way. Tokyo is a well-prepared city though, with a strong floodwall and well-built buildings, and it would take a very strong typhoon hitting the city to seriously disrupt them. Ryan1000 03:53, July 25, 2018 (UTC)

The track forecast intensity for Jongdari has been upgraded somewhat, now the JTWC takes Jongdari towards central Japan southwest of Tokyo as a 115 mph category 3-strength typhoon by Saturday. Hopefully it's not that strong when it hits Japan though. Ryan1000 05:58, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Jongdari
Upgraded to STS status by JMA, just like Wukong. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:24, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Jongdari
Upgraded further. The JMA's forecast isn't as aggressive as the JTWC's though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:15, July 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still a TS right now according to JTWC, but it'll probably be a typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale soon as well. The JMA forecast goes by 10-minute winds though, and 10-minute winds of 75 knots/85 mph might be stronger by the JTWC (Saffir-Simpson Scale), so category 3 strength isn't entirely out of the question. Ryan1000 14:00, July 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a 70 knot/80 mph typhoon according to JTWC. The track for this one is strange; they take it straight into Japan from the west before moving it south of Korea. I don't know if I ever seen that kind of track before. Usually storms move into Japan and Korea from the south. Anyway, hopefully Japan goes through this easily and without significant damage/deaths. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:49, July 26, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 110 mph winds by JTWC, and forecast to be a cat 3 soon, before curving back west and hitting central Japan as a 100 mph storm or so in 2 days. Ryan1000 18:20, July 27, 2018 (UTC)

uh oh jongarl bls quit wit de rum tah §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 12:05, July 28, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall in Japan
Jongdari is just about to make landfall in Japan southwest of the city of Nagoya as a 90 mph category 1 typhoon. It's a small storm though, so it shouldn't last over the country that easily. Ryan1000 12:17, July 28, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Jongdari (2nd time)
Now has weakened to a severe tropical storm. Hoping Japan didn't get hit hard by Jongdari. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions   00:37, July 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jongdari (2nd time)
Downgraded to a TS. Will die soon. I highkey hope that this storm made a 2016 Hermine-like scenario and did not exacerbate Japan's weather problems. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:56, July 29, 2018 (UTC)


 * Dr. Masters stated that in his latest blog post that Japan had suffered more than 200 deaths from flooding earlier this July, then a streak of record-breaking temperatures, then more flooding from Typhoon Jongdari, which actually hit as an 80 mph category 1 storm. The previous 06Z and 12Z runs of the HWRF model yesterday (the most reliable intensity model for the strongly active Atlantic last year) forecasted Jongdari to stall over southwestern Japan and potentially cause over two feet of rain. Hopefully the Euro is right instead, keeping Jongdari offshore of southwest Japan and minimizing flooding. Ryan1000 16:26, July 29, 2018 (UTC)

Jongdari left 24 people injured in Japan as of this writing. No fatalities (yet... and I hope it stays that way). Anyway, Jongdari is still a TS on JMA, still a TD on JTWC. However, JTWC's forecast says this will eventually hit eastern China (near Shanghai/Yangtze River Delta) as a tropical storm. JMA meanwhile says that Jongdari may re-intensify to a severe tropical storm as it traverses the Yellow Sea/East China Sea area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:29, July 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * According to JTWC this will pass very close to Shanghai in three to four days. Hopefully it doesn't reintensify too much. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:49, July 30, 2018 (UTC)

Current JTWC forecast expects this to be a a 55 mph tropical storm near Shanghai, hopefully Jongdari is not much stronger than Ampil, and not much worse either. Southern Japan is still getting some rain from this, hopefully it turns away soon before it gets too serious. Ryan1000 14:14, July 31, 2018 (UTC)


 * JTWC currently only has this as a 25 knot/30 mph TD, but JMA still has this as a tropical storm. It probably won't be anything devastating for Shanghai, unless a flooding disaster occurs. Wikipedia's season effects table still reports nothing as of now. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:36, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

16W is just about dead, but Jongdari is about to move into Shanghai as a tropical storm or depression soon. However, Jongdari has lost most of its convection by now, and may not bring much more than light rain showers when it passes over the city. Ryan1000 14:24, August 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * According to its official track (from both JMA and JTWC), Jongdari appears to have made a cyclonic loop after it hit Japan, and made another one while it's at the sea between the Chinese mainland and the Japanese archipelago. But right now, Jongdari is forecast to finally hit eastern China. Hopefully it won't be that bad for them, given that it seems to have lost its convection despite making two loops. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:50, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Final warning issued by JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:17, August 3, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jongdari
Moved inland over Shanghai, and Jongdari is now dead. Ryan1000 17:24, August 3, 2018 (UTC)

August
Might as well start this section before the (busiest?) month begins. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:52, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
And Tropical Tidbits spots another invest, also in the open Pacific. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:52, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:09, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still code yellow, but weather models are positive about this invest. This may follow Wukong's footsteps. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:24, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
New month, new invest. WPac is as active as expected. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:07, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:33, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Medium chance of formation now. Will likely become a name-stealer. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:15, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Upgraded by JMA to a TD, and this system now appears on their weather map too. Code red on JTWC, TCFA issued. This may not be a name-stealer after all, as this may affect land in the long run. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Shanshan
Wukong 2.0. Still a TD on JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:18, August 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, it'll probably be a typhoon, but it'll likely stay offshore just east of Japan. Ryan1000 17:25, August 3, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Shanshan
This is intensifying quickly. 55-knot winds from both JMA and JTWC, pressure at 985 hPa. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:34, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Shanshan
JMA already has this up as a 65 knot/75 mph (975 mbar) typhoon. This should get relatively strong, but not too strong as it makes an apparently straight-line path towards Japan. Forecast to peak at 90 knots/105 mph according to the JTWC and 80 knots/90 mph by JMA. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:51, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oh no, both the JTWC & JMA tracks take Shanshan directly towards the Kantō region (Tokyo area). I hope this will become like Jongdari; I hope it also changes its track and weaken before it hits the country. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:31, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Shanshan isn't moving northwest very fast and it's expected to hit the eastern tip of Japan as a weakening typhoon or (severe) tropical storm, but the way Shanshan is approaching Japan would actually be a better-case scenario than if he were to strike southwest of the city, because the counter-clockwise rotation of the storm would, if he does pass east of Tokyo, push seawater southwards and out of Tokyo Bay, like how Irma last year in the Atlantic pushed water out of Tampa Bay by hitting south of the city, though Irma was still destructive. Ryan1000 16:20, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

I REALLY don't like the latest GFS run for this... Hopefully that's a more alarmist approach. Send Help Please (talk) 09:26, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * I'd take the GFS with a grain of salt on some of their WPac intensity forecasts...they forecasted Typhoon Noru of last year to hit Tokyo as an 892 mbar category 5 monster at one point, and we all know where that storm struck. That model may be somewhat better closer to home, though I'd be more inclined to believe the JTWC forecast in this case. The Euro's not much more optimistic. In any instance though, I mentioned during Lan last year that Tokyo is a very well-prepared city for the effects of typhoons, with a very large floodwall on the southern portion of Tokyo bay to keep out storm surges and steel-frame high-rises that can withstand 150+ mph winds. Unless Tokyo gets directly hit by a category 5 super typhoon like Vera of 1959, they'll probably get off alright from storms like Shanshan, even better if this storm pushes water southwards and out of the bay if it passes to the east of the city instead of west, as currently indicated by the JTWC. Ryan1000 05:02, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
First of the two new WPac invests, according to Tropical Tidbits (again). This is the one near the International Date Line. Low chance of development for now, but models say that this may become a fishspinner/name-stealer in a few days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:14, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
Second of the two new WPac invests. For now, this may most likely remain as an invest/low pressure area, but forecast models say otherwise. This may intensify to a storm, and even to a typhoon as onw of the models expect this to hit the Philippines and Japan (or even China) in the long run. Other models tell a more likely scenario: that this will move westward/northwestward towards Vietnam and southern China. This one is at the west of the Philippine archipelago, and is also code yellow right now like 93W and 95W. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:14, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Since we've got 8 storms so far and Maria is looking like our first serious retirement candidate this year, we can begin this section now. Without further ado, here are my calls so far:

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
JMA: PAGASA: And that's my calls so far. Anyone else have thoughts? Ryan1000 16:55, July 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Bolaven - 20% - Caused some damage in the Philippines, but it wasn't as bad as some of the late-season storms last year (Kai-Tak and Tembin), and I'm not seeing a retirement in this case.
 * Sanba - 10% - Wasn't as bad as Bolaven, but gets credit for the minor impacts regardless.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Caused some rainfall over a few pacific islands, but no damage or deaths were reported.
 * Ewiniar - 32% - Was a somewhat destructive flood event for parts of southern China, but it wasn't as severe as some past storms in the country (like Hato last year, for example). Gets credit, but I don't think it'll be retired.
 * Maliksi - 1% - Killed two in the Philippines, but was otherwise a fishspinner.
 * Gaemi - 2% - Caused minor damage and killed 3 people as it passed southern Taiwan, but it won't be retired for that.
 * Prapiroon - 1% - Killed a person in South Korea and contributed to extensive flooding in Japan, but it wasn't directly responsible for most of the damage there.
 * Maria - 28% - Current damage projections are only at 491 million dollars, even less than Ewiniar, but that may increase later on. And fortunately, only 1 person was killed. I was fearing far worse from Maria since she was stronger and bigger than Fitow 5 years ago and it hit the same area, but I guess not, thankfully.
 * Son-Tinh - 12% - Current damage projections are around 69 million dollars with 32 deaths, unfortunately, but that's probably not severe enough for retirement.
 * Ampil - 8% - Caused some flooding in China around Shanghai, but Ampil doesn't appear to have been too bad for them, surely not as severe as Ewiniar, let alone Maria, earlier in the season.
 * Wukong - 0% - Never affected any land.
 * Jongdari - >10% - Still preliminary, Jongdari was one of only a small handful of typhoons to attack Japan from southeast to northwest (along with Lionrock 2 years ago, Ben in 1983 and Viola in 1966), but it was only an 80 mph storm when it did so, and it doesn't seem to have been too serious for them, unlike the flooding they saw earlier in the month. Hopefully it's not too bad for Shanghai either, like Ampil.
 * All names - 0% - So far, none of their storms have met the PAGASA mandatory retirement criteria of 1 Billion PHP in damage and/or 300 deaths in the Philippines, so nothing is getting retired here as of now.

Roy25's prediction
Might as well add mine with Maria nearing land, and may be devastating.

Intensity colors: TD, STS , TS , C1 , C2 , C3 , C4 , C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , 40-49% , 50% , 51-59% , 60-69% , 70-79% , 80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???

JMA:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bolaven ( 15% ) - Had caused some damage in the Phillippines, but this won't be retired
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba ( 10% ) - Killed quite alot but this also won't be going
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat ( 0% ) - Caused no damage and deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar ( 8% ) - Killed 8 and caused just over half a billion, but I doubt this name will go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Maliksi ( 0.001% ) - Didn't do too much other than 2 deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi ( 0.001% ) - Same as Maliksi, even with one extra death
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon ( 9% ) - While stronger, other than 1 death, this storm didn't do too much
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria ( 32% ) - As of now had caused $491 million in damage, and only 1 death so far (feared there would be more, but fortunately that didn't happen as of now).
 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh ( 10% ) - While it regenerated, it has caused 10 deaths and $17.5 million, but this won't go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Ampil ( 13% ) - Had caused 1 death but $173 million in damage, but I have doubt this will go
 * <font color="#ccffff">Wukong ( 0% ) - Didn't do much, pretty much a fish
 * <font color="#ffe775">Jongdari (???) - Currently active

PAGASA
 * All names used this season ( 0% ) - Didn't met PAGASA requirement for retirement

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

-- Roy 25  18:32, July 10, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0 WestPac retirement projections
JMA names
 * Bolaven - 5% - Minor damage; Philippines has seen worse.
 * Sanba - 5% - Same as above.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Early super typhoon, but also a fishspinner.
 * Ewiniar - 20% - There is substantial damage in China, but China has seen more ferocious storms than this.
 * Maliksi - 5% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon in the Philippines and killed 2 people, but I don't think it will be decomissioned from the list. Storms such as Saola & Haikui '12, Trami '13, Fung-wong '14, Chan-hom & Linfa '15 and Doksuri '17 caused more disruption to the Philippines and did not get retired; I think the same thing applies to Maliksi.
 * Gaemi - 1% - 3 deaths, minor damage... uh, Gaemi will stay.
 * Prapiroon - 15% - No direct effects but this storm exacerbated the massive rain event in Japan which has killed more than 200 people. But if its 2000 incarnation did not get the boot, why should its 4th incarnation get it?
 * Maria - 35% - The missing link between the fishspinner Marie in 2014 and the devastating Atlantic Maria last year. A great spectacle, and fortunately not as destructive as everyone feared. Caused notable damage, but the low fatality count would surely lessen Maria's chances of retirement. However, the U.S. may still request to remove this (a la Yanyan/Tingting/Vicente) due to the eponymous Atlantic storm.

PAGASA names
 * Agaton to Caloy - 0% - Did not meet the criteria.
 * Domeng - 5% - Did not meet the criteria but I still gave it 5% because maybe – just maybe – PAGASA strikes this out of the list due to its relatively notable impacts.
 * Ester to Gardo - 0% - Same as the first 3 storms of the year.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:59, July 15, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:08, July 15, 2018 (UTC).

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: Based off of JTWC intensities. <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

International:

To reduce clutter and save space, only tropical systems that were declared at least a TD by both the JMA and JTWC are included.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">6% - Only slight impacts, not enough to get retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Weak name stealer, JTWC did not even consider this a tropical storm. It did cause some impacts which makes it somewhat memorable.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - More deadly than Bolaven, but less damage. The deaths slightly boost up my percentage. Another non-candidate for retirement, though.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - A tiny bit stronger than Bolaven, but still a weak fail. Like Bolaven, caused slightly memorable impacts.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement: <font color="#77A">0.001% - Basically a fishspinner, except for tiny impacts in Palau, the Caroline Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Amazing super typhoon in late March. As a bonus, it almost completely avoided land. Gets more credit for time of the year. A C5 would have earned it an "EO" rating.


 * <font color="#00faf4">04W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Although it was a piece of junk, I do have to give it a tiny bit of credit for not stealing a name despite JTWC considering it a tropical storm.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#3F0">34% - $573 million is a pretty significant damage bill which makes retirement an outside possibility. 15 deaths as well. But they have still seen much worse, plus this was a weak storm.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Another weakling, but with memorability that prevents it from falling to lower grades.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Maliksi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.5% - Impacts were insignificant. 2 deaths unfortunately.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Failed to make typhoon status, despite being so close.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.7% - Like Maliksi, insignificant impacts and few deaths. One additional death slightly increases my percentage.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Stronger than previous tropical storms, but still pretty weak overall.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * Retirement: 3% - Only 1 death and little impacts. However, it contributed to the devastating Japan floods, and as a result it has a boosted chance compared with other storms with the same impacts
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - At least it reached typhoon intensity by both agencies, even though it was near the bare minimum for typhoon strength.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0F0">28% - Looked like it would be a monster, but damage and deaths appear to be less than initially feared. Devastation was even less than Ewiniar unless more reports come in, and deaths were much less than Ewiniar.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Reached an incredible intensity, and would have been EO if it stayed out to sea.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0AF">10% - Very deadly, with 58 deaths and at least $68.6 million in damage. Since it mainly affected Vietnam, which has never retired a storm name before, I highly doubt this will be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - Credit for unexpectedly moving back out to sea and regenerating. However, the deaths and devastation prevent the grade from being any higher than this.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ampil :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0AF">14% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Grading: <font color="#F30">D- - Some credit for reaching STS status according to the JMA.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">13W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - At least it didn't steal a JMA name.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Wukong :
 * Retirement: 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F90">D+ - Became a borderline typhoon, and only JMA failed to recognize it as a typhoon.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Jongdari :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Still active. Retirement prediction will be released upon dissipation.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Still active. Grade will be released upon dissipation.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">16W :
 * Retirement: N/A - Highly unlikely to be named.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Still active. Grade will be released upon dissipation.

PAGASA: Retirement percentages only.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Josie : <font color="#000">100% - Wikipedia reports ₱3.2 billion in damage, which meets their retirement criteria.
 * No other names meet PAGASA's retirement requirements of ₱1 billion in damage and 300 deaths.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 02:59, August 1, 2018 (UTC))

Harvey's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#666">0% or <font color="#666">N/A, <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9% , <font color="#00FFFF">1-9% , <font color="#00D5D5">10-19% , <font color="#00A0A0">20-29% , <font color="#00A000">30-39% , <font color="#FFC800">40-49% , <font color="#FF8800">50-59% , <font color="#E80000">60-69% , <font color="#B40000">70-79% , <font color="#800000">80-89% , <font color="#000000">90-99% , <font color="#000080">100% 

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

JMA Names:


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00FFFF">7%  - Only did minor damage. Unlikely to be retired.
 * Grade:  F  - Weak name stealer that was not even considered a TS by the JTWC. Not any lower because it at least spanned two calendar years.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00D5D5">12%  - Like Bolaven, it's a weak tropical storm that caused minor damage, but a higher death count and a lower cost total. Also unlikely to be retired.
 * Grade:  F  - It's also a weak name stealer like Bolaven. Not really memorable.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement:  <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001%  - Aside from the minor impacts to Palau, the Caroline Islands and the Mariana Islands, there was no other impact caused by this storm.
 * Grade:  A+++  - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">04W :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A 
 * Grade:  F  - The storm mostly failed. But I do give it credit for not stealing a name.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#00A000">37%  - Currently the most destructive, causing $573 million USD damage and 15 deaths. It does have a chance of getting retired.
 * Grade:  A+++  - Amazing typhoon that exploded into a C4 despite struggling through wind shear early in its life. It did have the chance to reach the S rank if it reached Category 5 status.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Maliksi :
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * <font color="#00faf4">Son-Tinh :
 * <font color="#ccffff">Ampil :

PAGASA Names: No name meets their retirement criteria yet.

Notes:

Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  06:05, July 23, 2018 (UTC)