Forum:2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season

Future start
And the NIO forum is up too. Ryan1000 03:59, November 20, 2018 (UTC)

90A.INVEST
This is currently up on Tidbits ridiculously close to the equator. It could become something once it moves away. ~  Steve 🦃   Happy  Thanksgiving!  👪  17:24, November 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently code yellow on JTWC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 13:18, November 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Can I archive the discussion except for this invest?  Java Hurricane  13:39, November 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * I guess you can, January-September should probably be the first archive and the rest of the year would be the second archive. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:33, November 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * The RSMC is monitoring the low now, gives a high chance of development in 4-5 days. -- Java Hurricane  16:42, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now "High" for 3-5 days (72-120 hours). Still code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:53, November 30, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Southeastern Arabian Sea
New area on the RSMC New Delhi outlook, could become a TC in 4-5 days. -- Java Hurricane  16:42, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently has a "High" chance for 96-120 hours, but "Moderate" for 72-96 and "Low" for 48-72. Still no invest designation nor a mention from JTWC about this system. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:53, November 30, 2019 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
According to an IMD document regarding naming of storms in the NIO, the names of significant storms will be retired. It is also listed as a reference on the WP TC naming article for the NIO. After some discussion with WPTC users on Discord, I think it would be prudent to make this section, as the committee will likely meet in 2020 or 2021. -- Java Hurricane  01:33, November 30, 2019 (UTC)

Java's retirement predictions
-- Java Hurricane  01:42, November 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Fani - Gone% - Fani will be retired for the 8.1 billion dollars in damage which it caused in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.
 * Vayu - 1% - Ended up causing flooding along the wesy coast of India, but 140 thousand dollars shouldn't be enough.
 * Hikaa - 10% - $67 million in damage was caused in Oman, but they might not push to remove it.
 * Kyarr - 20% - Really depends on if retirements here are like SPac - if strength is not a criteria, then Kyarr is staying. Powerful historic storm, but only minor damage was caused.
 * Maha - 1% - Nope. Only minor damage and flooding.
 * Bulbul - Bye% - With 2.6 billion dollars in damage and counting, Bulbul is a lock for removal.
 * Interesting... I always thought that storms were never retired in this basin. Anyway, I'm going to do mine (also complete with grades, an outlook, etc.). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:31, December 1, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things

 * The "Main" tab: Lists retirement chances (plus a summary) and grades for all storms.
 * The "Summary of Colors & Explanations" tab: All the information you need about the colors and styles used, and explanations for many things to help answer any questions or solve any confusion you might have.
 * The "Replacement Names" tab: Every storm with at least a 50% chance of retirement gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that may be chosen. Only done in certain basins where replacement names are not too complicated to figure out, such as the Atlantic, EPac, and the Southern Hemisphere.
 * The "Future Outlook" tab: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= To sum it up -


 * Retired, no question: Fani
 * Almost Certainly Retired: Bulbul
 * Extremely Likely Retired:
 * Very Likely Retired:
 * Likely Retired:
 * Somewhat Likely:
 * Tossup:
 * Possible:
 * Slight Chance:
 * Unlikely: Kyarr
 * Highly Unlikely: Hikaa
 * Almost Certainly Staying: Vayu, Maha
 * Staying, no question:


 * Pabuk : See the WPac forum for my retirement prediction and grade. Peaked at 60 mph (1-min/JTWC) while in the WPac, thus getting this coloring.
 *  FANI : 
 *  RETIREMENT CHANCE: 100% - $8.1 BILLION AND 89 DEATHS WILL GUARANTEE RETIREMENT. 
 *  GRADING: A - A VERY POWERFUL BEAST IN THE TOP ECHELONS OF RECORDED NORTH INDIAN INTENSITY. THE DEVASTATION LOWERS THE GRADE SOMEWHAT. 
 * Vayu :
 * Retirement chance: <font color="#30A">2% - $140 thousand and 8 deaths shouldn't be enough for this to be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#0AF">B+ - Became a nice C3-equivalent cyclone (1-min), although fell short of ESCS status while impacts weren't really significant.
 * <font color="#00faf4">BOB 03 :
 * Retirement chance: <font color="#AAA">N/A
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">F - According to the Wiki article, reached TS intensity according to 1-min winds (SSHWS). Was pretty weak but caused quite a bit of impacts and flooding around Odisha.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hikaa :
 * Retirement chance: <font color="#05A">13% - Notable impacts to Omen and surrounding regions plus western India, although that's probably not enough for Hikaa's retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#0FA">B- - Didn't disappoint in terms of intensity.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">LAND 01 :
 * Retirement chance: <font color="#AAA">N/A
 * Grading: <font color="#A00">F- - Looked pretty good on satellite, but was a big weakling with very little impacts
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Kyarr :
 * Retirement chance: <font color="#0A0">25% - Although only minor damage was reported, the question is if intensity factors in. If it does, it would be a lock for retirement as this was the most powerful ever recorded in the Arabian and the 2nd-most powerful in NIO history. But if only impacts factor in, it shouldn't be retired at all. The 25% is a compromise.
 * Grading: S - Really amazingly powerful while causing little impact. One of the best storms in North Indian history. Unfortunately didn't become a C5-equivalent.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Maha :
 * Retirement chance: <font color="#00A">5% - Only minor damage, so it shouldn't be retired based on impacts alone. If intensity factors in, the chances increase a little but it's still not likely to be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#05F">A- - A decently strong cyclone causing only minor impacts. I like it.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Bulbul :
 * Retirement chance: <font color="#300">99% - Very devastating for eastern India and Bangladesh. While it was one of the weakest named storms so far in the season and overshadowed by Fani, it should still be a lock for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#0F5">C+ - I like how it regenerated from Matmo and became another relatively strong cyclone, but the devastation prevents me from assigning anything higher than C+

Summary of Colors & Explanations= Intensity colors (SSHWS, 1-min winds): <font color="#5ebaff">TD/SD (≤35 mph, ≤30 knots), <font color="#00faf4">Weak TS/SS (40-50 mph, 35-45 knots) , <font color="#ccffff">Strong TS/SS (60-70 mph, 50-60 knots) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 (75-90 mph, 65-80 knots) , <font color="#ffe775">C2 (100-110 mph, 85-95 knots) , <font color="#ffc140">C3 (115-125 mph, 100-110 knots) , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 (130-155 mph, 115-135 knots) , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph, 140-155 knots) , <font color="#992040">BEAST MODE (185+ mph, 160+ knots)


 * Uses the SSHWS color coding found on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones.
 * There's a few differences though.
 * A color for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) is added so they would not be lumped in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. This color is used in all basins even those that (in official scales) do not use this color, such as the Atlantic and EPac.
 * A completely new color is added for "BEAST MODE" cyclones that reach or exceed the incredible intensity of 185 mph (160 knots). Because I feel that the official C5 color is not strong enough to represent these storms, this color is introduced for the most powerful of the powerful storms. They might be Category 6s if the category was introduced someday.
 * This same intensity scale is used in all basins, regardless of what their official scale is. 1-min winds outside of the NHC-monitored basins come from the JTWC.
 * TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA).

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">0% or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.000...1-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999...% ; <font color="#100">100% ; <font color="#000">TBA (active storms only)


 * Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color.
 * The top limit for each range is actually a bit higher than shown above (except for 99.999...%). For example, the true top limit to the 1-4% range is 4.999...%. The ranges depicted end at the whole number below to save space and avoid confusion (such as "5%" being part of two ranges at the same time if the previous range is not rounded down).
 * "50%" is the only standalone percentage outside of a range (except for 0% and 100%). This percentage means that the chances are a coin toss, there is an equal chance of it either being or not being retired. The lowest limit to the 51-54% range is actually 50.000...1%, but it is rounded to the whole number above to also save space and avoid any confusion.
 * "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired.
 * "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade.
 * "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active.
 * If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear.
 * Usually, "0%" and "100%" are approximate percentages, meaning the chances of the opposite outcome happening is so low that I won't even consider using any percentage just above the absolute so that I can save space. If the percentage is depicted as "0%", the actual percentage might be more like 0.000...millions of zeros...0.1%, or if "100%", would be more like 99.999...millions of nines...9%. If a storm with a "0%" percentage is retired, it would be like winning the lottery or even something more unlikely.
 * The only situation where the percentages are actually absolute is in basins with agencies that use retirement requirements, such as in the Philippine region (PAGASA). Their requirement of at least ₱1 billion in damages or 300 deaths for a storm ensures that any storm that meets it will be retired, and those that do not meet it are not retired for sure. No percentage between 0% and 100% is used for such a basin.
 * Tropical cyclones and their descriptions have special formatting depending on retirement chance.
 * For 0 to 24%, only the name, retirement percentage, and grade is bolded; the rest of the entry is plain-text.
 * For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded even the descriptions.
 * For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is bolded and italicized.
 * For 75% to 99.999...%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined.
 * Lastly, for storms with a 100% chance of retirement, the whole entry is BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Grading colors: SSS, SS , S , <font color="#50F">A+ , <font color="#00F">A , <font color="#05F">A- , <font color="#0AF">B+ , <font color="#0FF">B , <font color="#0FA">B- , <font color="#0F5">C+ , <font color="#0F0">C , <font color="#5F0">C- , <font color="#AF0">D+ , <font color="#FF0">D , <font color="#FA0">D- , <font color="#F50">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">🤦🏻‍♂️ , <font color="#000">TBA (active storms only)


 * Ranks a storm's performance.
 * Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, but if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance (extremely destructive/deadly), a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, nothing above "A+" will be received).
 * It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. The color scheme was also made to make sense.
 * "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and used only for non-destructive storms. They performed exceptionally well in terms of intensity, longevity, how unusual it is, topping intensity forecasts, persisting through unfavorable conditions, and maybe broke or helped to break records. The "S" grades go from bronze, to silver, and lastly to gold for the top grade of them all.
 * "S" by itself is bronze, and is the lowest ranking of the "perfection" grades used for non-destructive storms. "S" receiving storms, while really amazing, are still not amazing enough for the highest ranking honors.
 * The "SS" honor, which is silver, is the second highest of all and perhaps the highest that can ever be given out for storms that didn't break records in an absolutely unusual way. Examples of exceptional storms that can get up to here include 185+ mph fishspinners, an off-season (especially around Jan-Apr) Atlantic hurricane, or a powerful system lasting and persisting for as long as the longest-lived storms ever (John '94, San Ciriaco, Ginger, Inga, Kyle '02, Nadine '12). Certain other fighters such as Genevieve '14 or Otis '17 can also make it up to here.
 * The most superlative grade of all is...*drumroll*..."SSS"! This grade is so rare that it might only be given out once or twice a decade or even less often. It's also colored gold. They break records in an absolutely exceptional way, for example a major hurricane in the Atlantic in March, a Patricia-intensity storm (if not devastating), a storm lasting more than a month, and storms that fight through and defy forecasts so much that they might put even Genevieve '14 to shame. They truly are the storms that will forever live at the top ranks of the Hall of Fame.
 * The rest of the grades are colored based on the rainbow, from a violet/indigo "A+" to a blue "A", cyan "B", green "C", yellow "D", and red "F". Due to red being the color for danger, it's best to be used for failing grades, while green and above are colors used for things being fine (no danger at all). Yellow and orange show caution (uh oh!) and are used for grades really close to failing. Due to blue and especially violet/indigo being the furthest away from the danger colors, it's best used for the highest grades before the "S" grades which are instead colored by precious metals.
 * You can easily figure out what the grades A+ to F mean from the educational grading system. An explanation is not really needed. The only addition within this range is the grade "E", used to fill the gap between the "D" grades and the "F" failing grade. Grade "E" is usually given to moderate tropical storms that were quite pathetic but not enough to actually be failures.
 * And now, for the worst of the worst: below the letter "F", there are a few grades used to describe really pathetic failures.
 * "F-" means the storm failed so much that it deserves less than the basic "F", but still did something that would save it from lower grades. Examples: pre or post-season formation, unusual location, peaking beyond 40 mph, etc.
 * The grade "Z" comes from the fact that if you continue down the same pattern as the educational grading scale, you would continue going down the alphabet the bigger the fail is. While "A" can be used for perfection (but still less than "S"), "B" is less perfect, "C" is average, "D" is below average, "E" in my scale is a gap-filler for almost failing, and "F" is failing. The scale could continue down to "G", "H", etc. if it's an even bigger failure, all the way down to "Z" for the worst possible failures of all. Although "S" is closer to "Z" when going down the alphabet, that letter is a notable exception, and instead "T" would denote the next bigger failure below "R". To denote the worst failures of all, I am skipping straight down to the last letter, "Z", because all the in-between letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. Since "Z" is the last letter, it would be the absolute polar opposite of "A", the first letter and top grade, and thus the polar opposite of good/perfect. That letter is used for some of the worst failures (although there is an even worse grade, more on that shortly). Storms that receive this grade are short-lasting TDs, name-stealers peaking at 40 mph and lasting less than 2 days in total, and any storms that peak beyond 40 mph have to have been lasting a day or less in total or peaking way below the initial expectations (like a storm expected to become a hurricane peaks at 45 mph).
 * The absolute worst grade: These storms are so pathetic that they don't deserve even a letter. "Z" might still sound too good for them. I introduce... the "🤦🏻‍♂️" grade. Yes, it's an actual facepalm. This emoji is styled based on my gender and skin color, so if you were to borrow it and have different characteristics, I'd recommend finding a similar facepalm emoji with your own gender/skin color. This grade is rare and should stay that way. Examples of the absolutely worst failures that would actually receive this grade include: a 6-12 hour pop-up TD, a name-stealer that peaks at 40 mph and lasts a day or less in total from formation to dissipation, or any named storm that was downgraded in post-analysis to a TD or even a low (meaning they actually never deserved a name). Even some very bad TS or TD failures that pop up from time to time might not be bad enough for this grade, because they CANNOT peak beyond 40 mph nor last longer than a day.

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired, no question": 100%
 * "Almost Certainly Retired": 90-99.999...%
 * "Extremely Likely Retired": 80-89%
 * "Very Likely Retired": 70-79%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-69%
 * "Somewhat Likely": 51-59%
 * "Tossup": 50%
 * "Possible": 40-49%
 * "Slight Chance": 30-39%
 * "Unlikely": 20-29%
 * "Highly Unlikely": 10-19%
 * "Almost Certainly Staying": 0.000...1%-9%
 * "Staying, no question": 0%



Future Outlook= Current outlook:
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Amphan.
 * It's also possible that this season will go further to Onil.
 * Agni or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Pawan or before is also unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see 2-3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The current candidates are Fani and Bulbul. Kyarr might have a chance if intensity factors in. It's also possible to see another devastating system in December, although it's not too likely.

~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:31, December 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances that Pawan will be used: <font color="#500">95% - Very likely to form from either 90A or the southeastern Arabian system.
 * Chances that Amphan will be used: <font color="#B00">80% - If both systems that are currently on IMD's outlook in the Arabian Sea develop, this should arrive within the next week.
 * Chances that Onil will be used: <font color="#6C0">35% - Preferably I want to end the decade at Amphan, the last name on the whole list. Assuming that the lists will restart, this has a slight chance at coming before the end of the year if both of the current Arabian systems develop and something else comes afterwards.
 * Chances that Agni will be used: <font color="#05A">10% - Highly doubtful, as an unprecedented explosion would have to occur in December, sealing the season as the most active in history by a long shot.
 * Chances that Hibaru or anything beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">0% - Not going to happen in just the one month left of the year.

Post-season changes
The TCRs on Pabuk, Fani, Hikaa, Bulbul and Vayu are out on the IMD page. --'' Java Hurricane  17:34, November 30, 2019 (UTC)