Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
3 hours until the season starts here (though it technically started 1 hour ago) and we got a new invest! This one is just off the coast of the Carolinas in decently warm water. Models take it into Florida before it can fully develop. I don't expect to see much from it. I have my hopes from an AOI north of Panama to become Arlene. The models really seem to love it, some even bringing it to hurricane strength before landfall in Cuba in about 8 days! Yqt1001 01:31, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 30% but it is rapidly moving towards Florida. Yqt1001 11:49, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hope it develops. YE Tropical Cyclone

Made landfall on Florida and the models now show it going into the gulf once it reemerges from the other side of Florida. If it can stay intact there is a decent chance it will redevelop. It's moving pretty fast too so it shouldn't be over Florida for too long. Yqt1001 15:37, June 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * I was not really expecting much out of this weak storm(earlier mentioned in the Pacific forum), and, well, the season has just begun. I don't really see a big difference between the last week of May and first one in June. There is an outside chance it could become Arlene, but I won't count on it. I would expect a slower start, like perhaps mid July or August, but not so much June. We'l wait and see, but I'm not really expecting anything out of 93L. And the area of thunderstorms north of Panama is under too much wind shear to become Arlene. If I had to bet on which one of the two systems would become Arlene in the Atlantic out of this storm or the thunderstorms north of Panama, I would bet this storm, and the chances are not good either way. But we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 17:03, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The shear is supposed to die down quite a bit over the next 2 days. 93L has been downgraded to 20% but the storms north of Panama is up to 10% now. Yqt1001 19:11, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I don't really want that to happen, but the problem is, if the shear does settle enough, then the storms north of Panama(possibly future Arlene) aren't going to have anything in their way. Early June storms like that are rare; normally it's not very likely for storms to explode in the Carribean at this time of year. It certainly has happened in October a few times(Mitch, Wilma, Hattie, 1924) and in November(Michelle, Paloma, 1912, ect), but many people go home in November, whilst in June and July, are on summer vacation. The difference between storms in the carribean in October/November and June/July is the weather pattern. In June and July, there are lots of storms that develop in the region, but the wind shear is high. In October and November, wind shear isn't very high at all, but thunderstorm activity is scarce. It's just that, when the shear does settle down in June and July, like what happened with Audrey of 1957 or 2005's Dennis and Emily, or when the thunderstorm activity increases in October and November, that's when bad things happen. Both storms are worth watching; I was just mentioning earlier that it's only June 1st, the first day of the season; it's not like it's August yet or anything, but we'll keep on watching these storms either way. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:02, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Makes sense. Don't think the shear will go down that much, but it will go down enough to get the storms north of Panama to TS strength according to most models (one model still shows a category 3 storm however). The shear in the GOM, while still going down will be getting less favourable in the area 93L is going to be in so I think that 93L has only today and tomorrow to get it's act together and become a TD at the very most. It's also moving very quickly so I'm unsure how much time it will have to develop before it makes landfall in Texas/Mexico. It practically crossed Florida in 4 hours causing quite a bit less damage to the storm than a storm that would be going 10mph slower. Yqt1001 20:40, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The intensity of the storm in the carribean right now really all depends on the speed of that storm. Hurricane Wilma of 2005 was nearly stationary, or moving very slowly in the carribean, which explains how it got to a category 5. It did weaken when it encountered the shear in the gulf, but it still hit Florida as a powerful major hurricane. Wilma still remains the most rescent major hurricane to hit the U.S, but that will likely change this year. The same thing happened with Mitch in 1998 as well. I didn't think so much of 93L, but in place of 93L, 94L will follow it. If 94L manages to stay in the Carribean for long enough, it could be a nasty storm, but if it races right off northwards, then it likely won't develop at all. Ryan1000 21:19, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

93L is nearly gone now. Yqt1001 10:59, June 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * And I'm not surprised either. The storms north of Panama also have an outside chance of developing, but as I mentioned earlier, it's only June 2nd, and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't develop either. I mean, the season has just begun, and we will get our season rolling on later, but not right now. 2005 did get a june start and raged active the entire season, but the conditions this year are not the same as they were in 2005. I would expect a slow start in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, but still have a near to above-normal Atlantic season, and a rather quiet Pacific hurricane and typhoon season. The NIO should have gotten their first storm by now, because it's June 2nd, and that's their first peak, which is now falling down, and won't rise up again until November. Ryan1000 20:00, June 2, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
And the storms north of Panama have finally been invested. NHC gives it 20% in the next 2 days. Yqt1001 20:01, June 3, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's actually looking better than when it did a few days back, but it looks a little ominous to me, being down in the Carribean alone. It's heading slowly to the WNW, but given the conditions this wave is in, under hardly an ounce of shear and very warm SST's, it wouldn't surprise me if it explodes in the Carribean. I will be watching out for Arlene over the next day or two. Things are starting to get really intersting out there. Ryan1000 20:53, June 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It is looking quite a bit better, and the NHC acknowledged that finally..they said that the area was conductive for development but only increased the odds to 30%. I guess the atmosphere isn't quite ready for rapid organization just yet. However, every day it sits there and slowly organizes could be one day closer to Arlene. I think we could see Arlene in the next 3-4 days, but probably after that. I won't be surprised if it does form however. Yqt1001 23:53, June 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Neither would I, but there still is some shear in the Caribbean. That will hinder it a little bit, but if it can intensify despite the shear, then it might just be able to cause some trouble, because the SST's are still warm, and wind shear is much lower than where it should otherwise be. I am still on the lookout for Arlene, but I'm not imediately going to forecast a major hurricane out of this storm. Stay tuned on this one. Ryan1000 01:41, June 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models aren't being very kind to 94L over the next few days, but that won't exactly mean it won't develop at all. The models aren't so kind to it because it is very large and disorganized. The hurricane season hasn't officially begun yet, but the tornado season certainly has. The season was one of the worst in history. Throughout a 3-day period from April 25-28, 330 tornadoes touched down, and 186 were on April 27 alone, which was the largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history, smashing the former record of 148 in the "1974 super outbreak".Of the 330 tornadoes that hit, 3 were EF-5's, and there were an additional 146 from April 14-16. The first of the 3 EF-5's killed only 3 people when it tore into a few counties in Mississippi, the second killed 22 in Smithville, Mississippi, and the third one killed 71 in Hackleburg, Alabama. There were also 158 more from May 21-26, including 2 EF-5's. One of which, the Joplin tornado, was the costliest tornado in history. When it hit Joplin, it caused 1 to 3 billion dollars in damage, and it killed over 140 people, making it the deadliest tornado to hit the U.S. since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. Aside from the Joplin tornado, an EF-5 also killed 9 people in Oklahoma 2 days later. Thus far, 2011 has 3 of the top 5 most active tornado outbreaks on record. Two May outbreaks in 2003 and 2004 had 289 and 229 tornadoes, respectively, but were both shattered by this year's April outbreak. There were 683 tornadoes recorded in April 2011, making it the most active tornado month on record. The former record was 542 from May 2003, and the former April record was 267 from 1974, less than half of what 2011 had. The 30-year average for April is a mere 135. The death toll from this year's tornado season was the highest death toll from any tornado season since the 1925 season, with 522 deaths thus far in 2011. Only the tri-state tornado of 1925 killed more than all of them together, with 689 deaths, over 2000 injuries, and more than 10,000 people homeless. Damage from this year's tornado season has thus far totaled from 4.5 to 9 billion dollars, making it the costliest tornado season in history. There was also an EF-3 that hit Springfield, Massachusets on June 1st, being only the third EF-3 to hit the state since 1950 and it killed 3 people, making it the third deadliest. This year is only behind 1965 and 1974 for the highest number of EF-3 or stronger tornadoes, and ties 1953 for the second highest number of EF-5's in one year on record, with 5. Only 1974 had more, with 6, and it's not over yet, either.

That information of this year's tornado season was going a bit off-topic, but it goes to show mother nature hasn't been getting any friendlier with us. This invest likely won't develop soon, but our tornado season has been very active thus far, and it's just not stopping. Ryan1000 15:26, June 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back down to 20%. It has gotten quite a bit less organized so I'm not really at all surprised. Yqt1001 04:03, June 5, 2011 (UTC)

Back to 30%. It's still ingesting tons of mid-level dry air and if that doesn't recede soon then I'm not sure what future this storm will have, if any. Most of the models agree that it will develop now though, so now that we have model support the odds are likelier. Recon is leaving in 30 minutes so we'll see what happens at the 1800UTZ update. Yqt1001 14:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * It has been flaring up and dying down from time to time, but it's still sitting in the Caribbean doing absolutely nothing, and that's because it has no steering currents. If it still fails to develop into Arlene, then the trough north of it will be unable to grab it, and then it will still be in the Caribbean. Many models take it to a TS soon, but after that happens, it will likely be pulled northward into Cuba and then out to sea. Ryan1000 16:14, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 40% now, looks like it's time is coming (where it has to decide if it's going to develop or stay a low). Yqt1001 18:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's starting to near Jamacia, and if Jamacia can hinder it, then Arlene will have to wait. It appears this invest has thus far been having a really tough time in the Caribbean. I wouldn't be surprised if it just doesn't develop, but there still remains hope for 94L. Ryan1000 20:52, June 5, 2011 (UTC)

Looks like today will be the day it develops, if it does develop. Conditions are nearly the best today and it has organized pretty decently today. After today the shear goes up quite a bit and the storm will be doomed if it doesn't develop. I think that Arlene is out of the question, but TD1 isn't yet. Yqt1001 14:21, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 50% now. --Patteroast 18:12, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%... it's falling apart, I'd be surprised if this thing becomes TD1 now. HurricaneFiona 12:34, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%... it's falling apart, I'd be surprised if this thing becomes TD1 now. HurricaneFiona 12:34, June 7, 2011 (UTC)

And it is quickly dieing. Now at 10% however I feel it truly has a 0% chance of developing now. Yqt1001 18:57, June 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I guess Arlene must wait untill later. The East Pacific may be the only basin that'll be fun to watch for now. Only the EPac is actually spitting out storms as of now; since the brief hot streak in the WPac, nothing has happened, and just like the SWIO, the NIO(although they don't account for many storms) hasn't even had their first storm yet, and they should have had one by now. The NIO may also be rather inactive in this year, not that it may matter anyhow, but until then, I'll be on the pacific hurricane season forum. Ryan1000 19:50, June 7, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaaand it is back! Despite really high shear and being on top of Cuba, the NHC gives it 20% chance of developing. Yqt1001 00:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * 94L is just prolonging the inevitable. I will give up all my possessions if it even becomes a TD. Darren 23 Edits 01:00, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * "NEVER!!!", says 94L. It has a chance to become TD one, but I'm not counting on it. Currently it has a minor chance of developing, but I won't count on Arlene coming so soon. Ryan1000 02:15, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now it said never. It's down and out. Arlene will have to wait. Ryan1000 02:33, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: Caribbean
Most models are developing a storm in the West. Caribbean/Bay of Campeche/GOM coming from the tropical wave and the monsoon low in the Caribbean a few days from now. The system looks very very promising, and the conditions seem to be optimal for development, unlike what 94L encountered earlier this month. The models are showing an Alex-like track when the system exits the Yucatan. Because of the model agreement, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this should be Arlene, and this is a storm to watch out for. Darren 23 Edits 03:00, June 24, 2011 (UTC)

Yay!! Nice to see activity in the Atlantic. I hope this froms by the start of July. (A side note: If this forms between July 1st and 10th, my prediction will win!! Andrew444 14:43, June 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The wave seems to be merging nicely with a monsoonal low over Central America, if it gains a few more tropical characteristics it should be on the TWO within the next two days. And Andrew, the models having this forming in 3-5 days and then making landfall in June, this wave will be pretty much gone by July even if it forms or even if it does not. Yqt1001 14:47, June 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * If this thing continues to organize, it will probably be mentioned on the TWO
 * either today or tomorrow. What would everybody else give of it being mentioned
 * on the 2:00 TWO? 72.184.185.159 16:18, June 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * on the 2:00 TWO? 72.184.185.159 16:18, June 24, 2011 (UTC)

I'm not so sure. My prediction, as well as HurricaneSpin's and Owen's will also come true if it forms on July 1-10. I'm not so worried as of yet... I mean, we are still far from the peak of the season. We are slowly ramping up in activity, but I won't expect activity until August or September. Remember last year always, we had a 19-storm season season and we didn't really begin until late August and we began at about this time of year last year with Alex and Darby in the EPac. Anyhow, I will not really watch this one unless it doesn't affect land; as I mentioned in the Pacific forum, Atlantic storms are deadly and destructive, and are heartbreaking disasters to the people they affect. Ryan1000 16:21, June 24, 2011 (UTC)

For the 2:00 TWO, already passed the TWO and no yellow circle. I think though

it might to be declared an invest at some point. OWEN2011 18:10, June 24, 2011 (UTC)

It hopefully won't be so bad, but then again, it also has a likely chace for developing. It's trailing from a cold front, so a landfall near Florida may be likely with this storm as it contiues to the ENE. the area of T'storms in the Caribbean may also develop, and we have some more disturbed weather south of Central America, which could become future Calvin. Development, if any, will likely be slow to occur. Ryan1000 20:44, June 24, 2011 (UTC)

8PM TWO, still nothing mentioned. Yqt1001 02:08, June 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Okay, this was probably a false alarm. Apparently, many models have dropped this system. BTW, last time I checked, models aren't showing Calvin. Darren 23 Edits 04:11, June 25, 2011 (UTC)

Gah, I guess we'll have to wait. We're probrably gonna kick into gear later. Ryan1000 16:27, June 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I've given up on this system, looks like the first storm will be when I'm on my vacation to the east coast of Canada. Yqt1001 18:10, June 25, 2011 (UTC)

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS UNLIKELY WHILE THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Yqt1001 00:02, June 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not going to completly give up on any development from this thing, but the chances aren't good, let alone am I personally expecting much out of it. Ryan1000 00:32, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * An update for what the NHC says:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

It's up a little bit, but it still will be slow to develop, if it even does develop at all. Ryan1000 14:47, June 26, 2011 (UTC) WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EDT SUN 26 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-026
 * Models back on board with this system. Seems to me that it will only have a small window of opportunity before it makes landfall in Mexico. At most, this will be a very weak tropical storm. Darren 23 Edits 15:10, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be surprised if this gets invested into soon. Yqt1001 15:20, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * NOUS42 KNHC 261515

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST

IN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 95.0W FOR 28/1800Z. What is this? 173.168.145.18 17:03, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like the NHC thinks it will start rapidly developing when it reaches the BoC. I can't say I disagree there, but will it develop quick enough to be TD1? We shall see. Yqt1001 18:19, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The shear in the Bay of Campeche is low and SST's are high, but there isn't much space it will have between there and mainland Mexico, like Karl for last year. Ryan1000 19:57, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Another interesting thing to note, that the models didn't predict, is how high it's passing over the Yucatan. The models said that it would pass over Belize, but it's pretty much consolidating over Cancun right now, looks like this storm actually has a chance at being TD1. Yqt1001 20:39, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * This system looks like its trying to relocate to the north. I think now that may increase chances
 * if it has more time over the Bay of Campeche. I think we might see 30-40% 8:00 TWO. OWEN2011 21:38, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * @Yqt1001: Are we looking at the same thing? I see the basic center of it near Chetumal/Belize-Mexico border. I do believe the models are taking this storm too low and I think this storm has a decent chance of not just TD intensity but being Arlene. Darren 23 Edits 22:37, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene will never be retired! Heed my words! Ryan1000 22:53, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we are looking at the same storm Darren, but looking at the winds, I still think that the center is trying to form closer to Cancun than Belize. The storm itself seems to be centered over Belize, but I am pretty confident that it isn't. But in the end you'll probably be right Darren, what do I know? :P I've only been tracking for not even a year so far. And a lot of the models seem to take it up to TS strength now, it's nice to see some model confidence in this again! And yes Ryan, I doubt this storm will be able to convince Mexico to retire it, if they didn't retire Karl I don't know the next time they'll retire a storm. Yqt1001 23:01, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 20%, but do I have to tell you too, Karl did not get retired becuase it did not destroy the economy. In fact, it /might/ have destroyed, the drug dealers crop land, so that helps the goverment with the drug war.YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Yet alone will it be bad enough for the United States if not Mexico. I meant Arlene is the most commonly used name in the history of the Atlantic Basin, and if this storm becomes Arlene, it likely won't cause enough destruction for it to be retired, so it will come back yet again in 2017! Anywho, I hope we get some more activity out there. Ryan1000 00:01, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I overestimated for the TWO. I another subject, where's Andrew? OWEN2011 00:05, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Can you please ident your posts? idk where Andrew is. YE Tropical Cyclone  00:09, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I dunno what you are talking about YE, you didn't ident your post either. Anyways, the NHC seems to take the 48 hour limit more serious this year. Even though it's looking more likely for it to form, it's not looking that likely for it to form in the next 48 hours so they'll leave it at 20%. I'm actually a bit surprised they kept it at 20%, I was expecting 10% because of land interaction. Yqt1001 00:26, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, I did by the way. When you ident, you ident one to two more : than the prevous indenter. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:35, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * This [link] doesn't look indented to me. Also why does it have to be more? why not less? I personally like going back a bit, because when we reach 7 colons the page gets quite a bit longer because of the less space for text. But nonetheless, I think we are going to have a record year for Forum:Hurricane Wikia edits (pretty obvious since this AoI has gotten so much attention and it's not invested yet!). At this rate promising AoIs are gonna need storm event archives! Yqt1001 00:44, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * It makes it easier to read. After 8 indetions, don't indent. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:48, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well Darren, you are right, the center is pretty much over the northern Belize border. Now let's hope I am right/lucky with my crazy bet for the strongest winds this year. Yqt1001 01:48, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Why would you want to be correct with you prediction if that hurricane impacts land? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:11, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * You don't need to exactly ask for people to come; I think this year will be a record for hurricane Wiki activity; we already have two archives, one on the pre-season and another on Arani, in addition to the pre-season archive in the EPac forum, the archives on Aere and Songda in the WPac forum, and all of the named storm archives in the SHem forum(which, before this year, couldn't fill a full page's worth of attention). Anyhow, it's looking good for development, and I am looking forward to Arlene coming from this storm, but not a 190 mph monster, ect. Ryan1000 02:20, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I was never wishcasting a 190mph on the coast of Cuba, if anything I am sorta expecting the storm to be of CV origin (where it goes after that I don't know). I just have a strange feeling that we will get a superstorm this year (which I'm starting to doubt because of Megi last year). We shall see, and we shall see what happens to this AOI too. Yqt1001 02:58, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * BTW, I archived Awesome Adrian.YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:06, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nice name. I will think of him as my most favorite storm of 2011, if not second to Arani. Ryan1000 03:09, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian is deserving of such an awesome name. Adrian will be #1 or #2 (or #3 depending if my 190mph super-cane develops) for me for sure. Yqt1001 03:10, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I archived Beatriz just now as well, but I didn't really nickname her, she wasn't awesome. Good 'ol star for originality, Beatriz. Also why not nickname Rick's archive in 2009 "Righteous Rick?" Sounds like a good nickname for an epic win like him. Ryan1000 03:17, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * So we are going to nickname every rare/major fish hurricane now? :P And is it just me who thinks that every named storm in the EPac and ATL will be archived and the only things left in the month section will be the invests and the AOIs? Yqt1001 03:26, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * They are awesome and epic wins, TBH =). I would like that. Also, if you haven't seen it yet YE(or anyone else),
 * Should we name Dora's archive (when it forms), Dora the explorer. :P YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:43, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * LOL. We so should, if it is a long-lived and long tracking storm like, say the 1999 Dora. Ryan1000 04:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * They are awesome and epic wins, TBH =). I would like that. Also, if you haven't seen it yet YE(or anyone else),
 * Should we name Dora's archive (when it forms), Dora the explorer. :P YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:43, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * LOL. We so should, if it is a long-lived and long tracking storm like, say the 1999 Dora. Ryan1000 04:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)

Are we getting a little off topic? This discussion is about the lowpressure in the Caribbean. The low pressure looks to be having some land interaction. OWEN2011 14:53, June 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Ah, we aren't going to get too off-topic, anyhow, about this area of disturbed weather, I could see it making Arlene once it gets into the Gulf. Ryan1000 15:45, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * If it wasn't so monsoonal in nature it would have a better chance. I don't know if 48 hours is enough time for this storm to fully organize, but lots of models still show it developing, so there is still hope. Yqt1001 16:08, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * What do you guys think the TC Formation probability will be at 2:00?
 * A. 0%
 * B. 10%
 * C. 20%
 * D. 30% or higher
 * 67.9.33.94 17:00, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well this forum isn't really active enough for polls, but I'll go with D, tomorrow (and the day after that) is pretty much the now or never day, so they have to bump the odds eventually. Yqt1001 17:11, June 27, 2011 (UTC)

In my opinion I would give 50/50. OWEN2011 17:28, June 27, 2011 (UTC)

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. I win! Also seems that we might have the first recon in the atl tomorrow. Not sure if it's invested yet. Yqt1001 17:36, June 27, 2011 (UTC)

I'm surprised it's not invested yet at 30%. Maybe will be invested later today. OWEN2011 17:55, June 27, 2011 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Well it's been invested now! (damnit Owen your above comment conflicted me!) And its nice to be able to finally retire the longest AOI section ever on this forum (probably). Even if this doesn't form, I think I see a storm event archive. Yqt1001 17:57, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Some 2006 storm probably owns the record (the archives are on Wikipedia). YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:01, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * This forum was around in 2006? Yqt1001 18:14, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, but before the 2007 season, the policy was use the talk pages on wikipedia as forums. Now we have this seperate place called Wikia. Hurricane Wiki was launched in May 2006, but came back again(this time for good), in April 2007. Anyhow, this AOI is still not over yet, but it all depends on how long it stays around before becoming Arlene. Ryan1000 18:17, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I see we have 95L. Not surprising to me. If it organizes more, it may become TD1 by Thursday timeframe. OWEN2011 18:20, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, makes sense (Ryan). I didn't even own a computer back then so I wouldn't know. And yes, I know this is still an AOI, but the section above is finally over, scrolling on that section was starting to bug me. Getting close to the point where I was hoping for an invest today. Also someone made a good comparison using all the good models, 3 out of 5 show a TD/TS making landfall in Mexico on Thursday (June 30th). Now that we have an invest we should be able to see more clearly what the models think of this storm. Yqt1001 18:22, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * If it stays around for two or three more days without becoming Arlene, We may have to archive this storm even though it wasn't named. I still do think Arlene will come onto us, but probrably not be so bad. I believe Alberto's Archive in 2006 holds the record in question, but there is a chance that (Arlene) may surpass it. Ryan1000 18:33, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, Chris' and Wilma own the record. For the EPAC, Ioke owns the record. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:06, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I did a word count of those 3 articles up to when the storm became a tropical depression and what we have so far..Chris wins with nearly 4000 words, followed by Alberto with 3300 words, followed by "Arlene" (if it gets named) with about 2800 words (not including the off topic discussion about Dora the Explorer and Awesome Adrian). Wilma comes last with a measly 1000 words. If this storm doesn't form for another day, this could be the record. Yqt1001 19:13, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, this storm may be the longest talked about here, but if you include the wikipedia archives, then this storm isn't close to 1st place. Ioke makes sense; it had an all-time record high ACE from any storm worldwide, and that storm became removed from the list because it had no real Hawaian Meaning, rather than specifically because it hit Wake Island or Johnston Atoll. I think Arlene will come onto us, but it probrably won't get anywhere past TS intensity. Ryan1000 19:22, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * How many words did Ioke have? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:31, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * 4,566 words fro Ioke! Wow. Daniel had 4,429 as well. Wilma had a total of 11,000 words while Dean had about 10,000 words. Alberto had 13,100 words and Chris had 12,000 words. Yikes! Keep spamming, and we will set the record. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:36, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * We have thus far had thousands of words on the 2011 Hurricane Wiki, though worldwide, i'm not entirely sure how many. We are just getting more and more attention out there. We will set an all-time record on this Wiki if it keeps up at this rate. Ryan1000 20:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Agreed 100%. We will be as big as Storm2k soon. and I hope this eventually makes the project active again. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:47, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Wikia is definitely on course for its most active season ever. What shocks me the most is that pretty much all posts so far this year have been made by me, Ryan and YE. Maybe we should redefine active, because as far as activity goes, Storm2k didn't even have a section for 95L until it got invested today, whereas we have been talking about it for a while. Maybe activity should be where >6 members are posting within a few minutes? I know that in the peak season we will achieve this (and we could probably now..me, ryan, ye, darren, andrew, owen and fiona. There seven semi-active members!). Yqt1001 20:52, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Plus atomic and hurricane spin are not very active, but I have contact with them. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:56, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah some of the older members are disappearing, but that is expected from any online community. But I just remember that I will be on a 2 month trip starting next week, so I won't be around as much. But the next week I'll be on a lot since my last exam will be over in nearly 12 hours. Looks like the activity wont be as much as it could be if I was online all day. Oh well, gonna be a fun trip to Newfoundland! =D Yqt1001 21:00, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, have fun. Atomic is right now away too per what he said on IRC. This wikia would be about 10 times more active if it was not for the lack of IRC support. A large argument over there last year forced HurricneSpin, atomic, and Darren to become less active on Wikipedia, and probably on here as well. So, this might not get active that quickly, but wasn't it a couple week ago when we were all calling the forums dead. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:12, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Thanks! Yeah I was calling it dead because of the lack of members, but Owen and Andrew popped up and put some life in here again. Fiona also showed up around then too to help out with the activity. Also what is this IRC you always talk about? And we might be straying quite a bit off topic right now..I guess we'll see what happens at 8PM to revive the topic again. Yqt1001 21:19, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * This may revive the discussion until the next TWO. POLL TIME! What will chances be
 * at the 8:00 TWO?
 * A. Lower than 30%
 * B. 40%
 * C. 50%
 * D. 60% or higher
 * OWEN2011 21:35, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmm. I think no change/maybe bumped to 40%... HurricaneFiona 21:50, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll go with A or B (A being 30%). Yqt1001 21:51, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmm. I think no change/maybe bumped to 40%... HurricaneFiona 21:50, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll go with A or B (A being 30%). Yqt1001 21:51, June 27, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)