Forum:2015 North Indian Ocean cyclone season

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Future start
Post any storms below here. Ryan1000 05:23, January 15, 2015 (UTC)

Depresion ARB 01
First storm of the NIO season, expected to become Ashobaa as it heads northwest off of India, and could become a cat 1 before weakening and likely dissipating near the Gulf of Aden. Ryan1000 22:48, June 7, 2015 (EYEANWLTC)

Oh boy! I love tracking hurricanes, and I just know that this one will be a doozy!

Cheers, -- Puffle  Let's party HARD!  01:19, June 8, 2015 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Ashobaa
Now a cyclonic storm with 40 mph (3-min) winds and 994 mbars. Likely to intensify further, but not past cat 1 strength. Ryan1000 19:20, June 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Intensified a little, but fell short of hurricane strength. It'll be onshore in Oman in a day or two. Ryan1000 22:06, June 10, 2015 (UTC)

hope if we don't see an 2013 Helen repeat. (ended up being a C1 in post analysis) looks disorganized.  totally destructive  | request tracks to me! 03:23, June 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Ashobaa is closing in on Oman, but with disorganized convection. Nevertheless, the final JTWC advisory noted a well-defined circulation supporting winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (1-min) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). On the IMD side, the system is still a cyclonic storm, with winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg). Additionally, while the JTWC predicts Ashobaa's dissipation within the next day, the IMD expects it to stay intact for the next 36 hours despite land interaction and moderate shear, before degenerating after making landfall in Oman. Hopefully, this storm causes minor impacts at most for that nation. It has already delayed the onset of the southwest monsoon over India, which could be detrimental to regions recovering from the deadly heat wave. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:07, June 11, 2015 (UTC)

Deep Depression Ashobaa
The IMD notes continued signs of disorganization, and for this, has weakened Ashobaa into a deep depression with winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (3-min) and a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg). Despite SST's of ~29 to 30C around the depression, increasing shear should continue its demise. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:45, June 12, 2015 (UTC)

Depression Ashobaa
Ashobaa may have weakened, but Oman is beginning to report rough seas. Despite relaxing of shear, winds have fallen to 25 knots (30 mph) (3-min) and continued land interaction should cause the system to become a low-pressure area within the next day, and from there make landfall over the nation. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:01, June 12, 2015 (UTC) now looks like a remnant low.  totally destructive  | request tracks to me! 17:59, June 13, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Ashobaa
Ashobaa is officially dead per the IMD. However, the JTWC has noted the system's convection has wrapped closer to its LLCC, despite some 20 to 30 kts of shear. Additionally, although the models forecast Ashobaa gradually weakening, the JTWC gives a medium chance of regeneration. Moreover, the latter's estimated intensity for the cyclone is 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-min), with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa). On a side note, Ashobaa did not pass through Oman without impact. Nearly nine inches of rain fell on Masirah Island in just a day, and widespread power outages were reported across the nation. Also, in the nearby UAE, there have been reports of waterlogging. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, June 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * Ashobaa's remnants have dissipated according to the JTWC, and the system has therefore been dropped from their outlook. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:25, June 15, 2015 (UTC)

96B.INVEST
new system in less than a week :O. looks a bit lopsided.  totally destructive  | get hyper! 22:02, June 17, 2015 (UTC)

Depression BOB 01
Somehow, the invest got enough organization to become the first Bay of Bengal depression of the year, BOB 01 (the JTWC has not issued advisories yet). With most of the deep convection confined to its western quadrant, winds are currently at 25 knots (30 mph) (3-min) with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.36 inHg) per the IMD. Due to BOB 01's proximity to Odisha and moderate shear is affecting its southern quadrant, both the IMD and JTWC only forecast a low chance of further development before making landfall later today. Also, the latter acknowledges the lack of any model guidance, hinting we may have to wait for another named storm in the NIO. However, Odisha should still prepare for BOB 01, as it could still be a serious threat. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:19, June 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * Little has changed intensitywise regarding BOB 01. Most of its strongest winds are located in the southern quadrant, and it should make landfall over Odisha within 24 hours. However, the JTWC has stopped monitoring the system, and they have noted the system has dissipated. For now, I will leave the title as it is, until the IMD reports the same. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, June 20, 2015 (UTC)

Depression BOB 02
suprisingly. theres a massive moosoon-like tropical storm active in the NIO. forecasted to landfall in Bangladesh in the next day or so.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:20, July 29, 2015 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Komen (Deep Depression BOB 02)
and we have another named storm in the NIO. currently named by the Bangladesh NWS. not by the IMD. (like 2007's Yemyin)  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:43, July 30, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Komen
Komen has dissipated over the Indian subcontinent (Wikipedia says its still active, but I have found no sources to confirm this). Anyway, despite being weak, this storm was a disaster for Burma, and I am surprised no one has mentioned anything yet. To put things into perspective, Komen killed nearly 30 people in the nation and left thousands more homeless. As a matter of fact, more fatalities could be reported as rescue teams reach harder hit areas Additionally, rainfall totals in excess of three feet in Bangladesh has killed a further 40 and even more deaths have been reported in West Bengal from other causes, like snake bites. The president of Burma has declared some areas of the country a disaster zone, and I can only imagine how worse things will get. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:13, August 2, 2015 (UTC)

At least 170 have been killed by this storm. Too many, but not as many compared to the previous storms that struck the area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:30, October 30, 2015 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 03
looks that we got something in the arabian sea -- the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:01, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 04
this thing is rapidly intensfying. deep depression by the IMD. this is a strong TS for shure. could this dethrone Gonu (2007)? -- HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  rektastic Patricia  •  spam goes here ^_^  17:05, October 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * Finally some storm formed somewhere! It's been looking good, and is forecast to become an extremely severe cyclonic storm. Hoping for a powerful storm as long as there's minimal/no damages! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:46, October 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * It should be named very soon, probably by tomorrow. The JTWC forecast makes this a powerful cyclone possibly threatening Yeman/Oman. I also hope for something powerful, as long as it won't significantly threaten land!  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:57, October 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * If the JTWC forecast verifies and this hits Yemen as a category 2 storm, it would be the first hurricane-strength storm to strike the country, much like Gonu '07 was for Oman. I don't often post here (since the NIO is quiet most of the year), but this could be a historic storm and it definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 03:51, October 29, 2015 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Chapala
Weather Underground has yet to show the upgrade, but this thing is named now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:36, October 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * By one minute wind speeds, this is already a category one hurricane, although it's not a severe cyclonic storm yet. It's intensifying quite fast though, and this is likely going to be an extremely severe cyclonic storm. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:08, October 29, 2015 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala
short fused bomb here... -- HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box   •   rektastic Patricia   •   spam goes here ^_^   21:32, October 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Not good. JTWC already expects a cat 4 out of this, though given Chapala's highly impressive sattelite appearance and the fact it's moving over very favorable conditions, this could even become a Gonu-like category 5 storm before running ashore in Yemen. This isn't looking good for them... Ryan1000 03:28, October 30, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is just not looking good for Yemen, since it could really threaten them in the future as a powerful, potentially C5 cyclone. Yemen is a very poor country that really does not deserve any threats from natural disasters such as this, but luckily the forecast track isn't really directed towards major population centers. This is just...going to be threatening. Hope they make it out safely...  Steve820  🎃 ( Happy     Halloween     guys!  )👻  04:19, October 30, 2015 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Chapala
And so it explosively intensifies... this is not looking good for Yemen... Winds are now clocking up to 195 kph (3-minute sustained), 250 kph (1-min) — had this been existing in the WPac, this could have been a super typhoon (per JTWC standards)... it's good though that it is forecasted to hit a sparsely populated area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:27, October 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's expected to becme a category 5 super cyclonic storm in the next 24 hours, before weakening to a cat 4 or 3 at landfall. I don't think Yemen has ever seen something like this heading their way. Ryan1000 12:11, October 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * the HWRF goes bonkers with Chapala. keeps it as a super cyclonic storm for a pair of days. -- HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  rektastic Patricia  •  spam goes here ^_^  15:00, October 30, 2015 (UTC)