Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

October
The season has gone fast, didn't it? Isaac829 E-Mail  02:11, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, we might se 1 or 2 more storms in EPac until the season dies down. Ryan1000 08:00, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi:South of Mexico
Very big Aoi, 10% atm.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  00:38, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:19, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
STWO says 30%. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:19, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Starting to pull together...50% now. Looks like a Dora (1999) to me. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:02, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

No surface circulation yet, but the invest is up to 70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15-E
Now a TD. Here comes Olivia, 16th of the season. EPac's about to tie ATL again. Ryan1000 17:43, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olivia
Now Olivia, and already above the NHC forecast. Some strengthening is likely, maybe a peak at 65-70 mph? Kiewii! 21:55, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

I think so, but I won't rule out a 75 mph Hurricane Olivia. Anything stronger than 75 mph or lower than 60 mph seems unreasonable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:21, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah... no hurricane coming from this one. After staying at 60 mph for a day or so, Olivia's falling apart. Down to 45 mph now; that shear is really getting a hold of her. When was the last time an EPAC storm defied predictions by staying weak? --HurricaneMaker99 21:01, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep but Paul could be serious trouble.Allanjeffs 21:25, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * @HM99: Tropical Storm Fernanda, the only sub-hurricane strength last year, was expected to briefly become a hurricane, too (if it had, every named storm would've reached hurricane intensity last year). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:18, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fernanda came close as heck though. Olivia was overestimated by 15 kts. --HurricaneMaker99 23:34, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Olivia
Done for. --HurricaneMaker99 02:44, October 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep. My least favorite storm of this year. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:49, October 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * 35 mph/1006 mb. Here goes nothing. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:56, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Bye Olivia! Paul anyone? STO12 (talk) 03:24, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

my least favorite storm was Hector that should have stay as Ernesto ,and John the two fails of the season,anyways base on the gfs Paul is coming soon and expected to become a formidable storm may trouble Mexico.Allanjeffs 04:07, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Olivia
Yep. Isaac829 E-Mail  11:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Bye, Olivia! Hopefully, if Paul comes, he won't do what his 1982 predesscor did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:08, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

2011 was a once-in a lifetime event for EPac. We will likely never see another EPac season with a major hurricane existing in every month of the season except the first month (2008 ATL anyone?), and an ACE that was 120% above normal despite what NOAA forecasted "Only a 5% chance of above-normal activity in EPac". Anyways, yeah, that was a fail. Paul 1982 was a nightmare for Central America and also heavily damaged Mexico. Paul 2006, however, caused a pittance of damage to Mexico when it came ashore. I'd prefer a repeat of his last incarnation than the 1982 incarnation any day. Ryan1000 14:32, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Near Mexico
Popped on the TWO and is already at 20%. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:57, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Now invested. Paul, anyone? Ryan1000 16:55, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 30%. I think so. It'll be interesting to see who comes first, Paul or Patty? And after that, will Rosa or Rafael form earlier (assuming we get two more named storms in both basins)? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:59, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Patty has win the race and probably 98L will be Rafael.Allanjeffs 20:51, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

This invest is up to 40%, but still hasn't developed yet. It likely won't become much if it does develop though. Ryan1000 21:37, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 50%. However, could still struggle. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:33, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

We could have a tropical depression in the EPac...70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:32, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

100% here comes Paul.Allanjeffs 18:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

straight to ts Paul. PAUL, EP, E,, , , , 16, 2012, TS, O, 2012101000, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, EP162012 .Allanjeffs 19:58, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paul
40 mph/1005 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:01, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Catching up with the Atlantic! STO12 (talk) 21:36, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Expect rapid intensification with this one imo.Allanjeffs 21:51, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

May become our next major hurricane, but will remain out at sea while it is one. It may recurve north, but it'll be much weaker if it affects land by then. Ryan1000 22:15, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Paul
And it's a 'cane. Now at 75/988. It hasn't been wanting to explode. NHC doesn't make it that much stronger though. Ryan1000 11:00, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

This may not be significant, but with Paul's upgrade, 2012 is the second year in a row the NHC underestimated the number of the hurricanes (5-9 were predicted, but Paul is our 10th). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:23, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

NHC underestimated the numbers? I think you mean CPC (NOAA) underestimated the numbers. The NHC doesn't make the forecasts by itself. Only CSU, NOAA, TSR, WSI, UKMET, and a few other organizations make the yearly forecasts. Anyway, Paul seems to be strengthening. I'm not sure about major hurricane strength though, and even if it does, it shouldn't significantly affect land. Ryan1000 16:41, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Paul
Yay!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:49, October 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Wow, didn't see that coming. 120 mph, 960 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 20:51, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Like I say Paul will be a major I knew I was going to be correct.Allanjeffs 20:50, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Paul (2nd time)
Only briefly though. However, now it's expected to hit central Baja as a cat. 1. Shouldn't be worse than Norbert. Ryan1000 08:41, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Or Jimena (2009). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:45, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paul (2nd time)
70 mph/986 mb. Mexico got lucky! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:52, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

VERY lucky...Paul collapsed as soon as he came ashore. He might not be so bad after all. Ryan1000 02:01, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Headed to... CALIFORNIAAA!!! CALIFORNIA GIRRRRLZ!!! (As I last checked.) :D Whatcha all think?!? :O 188.223.248.201 17:17, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul
Will it affect California?-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:39, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Au revoir! --HurricaneMaker99 20:39, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Mexico sure got lucky! Paul could've been a re-Norbert (2008) or Jimena (2009) for the Baja California Peninsula, bud ended up becoming Rina and Bud 2.0. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, he pretty much collapsed onto himself just as he made landfall. He was forecast to be inland as a cat 2 bu NHC, but in reality it only hit them as a mere 60 mph TS, and it lost all of it's convection within 6 hours or so of it's landfall. Ryan1000 22:25, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:South of Hawaii
As the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific are snoozing, the Central Pacific isn't! An AOI 900 miles south of Hawaii has a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:22, October 18, 2012 (UTC)

92C.INVEST
Now Invested. And Andrew, the Atlantic isn't snoozing for long. In fact, we already have another AOI in the central Atlantic (that I just posted in the ATL forum) that's at 10% chance of developing in the next 2 days. However, no storms are active as of now. This could become a hurricane, but well south of Hawaii. Ryan1000 17:09, October 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now 0%. Isaac829  E-Mail  21:43, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one didn`t develop because it was near the equator to get spinAllanjeffs 22:45, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Guess we won't see anything after all. This one won't develop. Ryan1000 11:43, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
Popped on the TWO and is currently at 10% chance of development for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:51, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

the models are showing a potent major hurricane out of this one.Allanjeffs 00:13, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:41, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

This could become Rosa and maybe cause significant damage to Mexico when it recurves towards them later this week, as the GFS suggests. As Allan said, by then it might be a major hurricane. TD 18 is going to pose a rainfall threat but likely won't be a hurricane. Ryan1000 16:27, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  23:38, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
50%. Might become Rosa over the next few days. Ryan1000 12:09, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

I hope 98L becomes Rosa! If this becomes Rosa, this would not only make the 1988 season the only season that didn't reach the 'R' name on this list, but it would mark the first time in reliable records both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane season produced 17 total storms. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:31, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Might or might not be I am waiting for Valerie in the Atlantic though.Allanjeffs 04:15, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 40%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:11, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

Now TD17E.Allanjeffs 12:44, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Now a TS. Named Rosa. 112.201.143.202 15:10, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rosa
Per above. 112.201.143.202 15:10, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Per what Andrew said, it&apos;s the first time ATL and EPac had 17 storms each. Closest runner-up is 2008, with 16 storms each. Ryan1000 17:24, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Hmmm...Rosa&apos;s intensifying when it&apos;s supposed to be weakening. Anyone think we&apos;ll see a hurricane? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:59, November 1, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:East of 98E
20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:11, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think this will become Sergio. It seems too close to Rosa. Ryan1000 17:24, October 30, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Isaac829 E-Mail  00:27, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * All names - 0% - No big impacts.

Mine:


 * Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but it had no impact on land.
 * Bud - 1% - Fun storm to follow, but very minimal damage.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Killed three people.
 * Daniel - 0% - Impressive major hurricane, but no.
 * Emilia - 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio - 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's it.
 * Gilma - 0% - See Fabio's section.
 * Hector - 1% - Minimal land impacts.
 * Ileana - 0% - See Fabio and Gilma's sections.
 * John - 1% - See Hector's section.
 * Kristy - 1% - See Hector and John's sections.
 * Lane - 0% - See Fabio, Gilma, and Ileana's sections.
 * Miriam - 0% - See Daniel and Emilia's sections.
 * Norman - 7% - Five people are currently missing.
 * Olivia - 0% - Epic, epic, epic fail.
 * Paul - 1% - See Bud's section.
 * Rosa - TBA - Still active, but seriously doubtful already.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Mine
 * Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.
 * Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.
 * Carlotta-15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying.
 * Daniel- 0%love you but no
 * Emilia 0% meh nothing just a cat 4 in here
 * Fabio 0 % just rain to LA and nothing more.
 * Gilma0% didn`t affect land.
 * Hector 0% First fail of the season pathetic
 * Ileana:0% good to watch but no
 * John0% and the first epic fail of the season has form and die
 * Kristy0% I give she was resilent over cold water
 * Lane?? we will see


 * Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Here's my predictions: Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement.
 * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you.
 * Carlotta - 25% - It caused 107 million in damage to Mexico, but that probrably isn't severe enough for retirement.
 * Daniel - 0% - Didn't affect any land.
 * Emilia - 0% - Strongest of the season, but never hit land
 * Fabio - Nothing to really say here.
 * Gilma - 0% - Became a hurricane, but nothing else.
 * Hector - 0% - No effects on land.
 * Ileana - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * John - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Kristy - 0% - Nothing much.
 * Lane - 0% - Not expected to hit land.
 * Miriam - 0% - Beame a major, but that's it.
 * Norman - 8% - He left some people missing and caused flood damage as well. Not that bad, but not negligible either.
 * Olivia - 0% - What's that now?
 * Paul - 1% - *facepalm*
 * Rosa - 0% - Fail.

CobraStrike:


 * Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm.
 * Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement.

 CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

True Golden Blaze: True Golden Blaze 01:35, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta- Meh, no.
 * Bud - 1.5% Gave Mexico a little shock, but didn't do much.
 * Carlotta - 11.5% Carlotta's landfall did pull off some deaths, but not enough to get it's name crossed out.
 * Daniel - Will do nothing and die out in the cold Central Pacific waters.
 * Emilia - Some waves but no threat to land. At current intensifying rate, could get a Cat 3 or 4.

Well, it's time for mine I guess. Kiewii! 21:58, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Nope...
 * Bud - 0% - Nope...
 * Carlotta - 0% - Nope...
 * Daniel - 10% - For it's epicness
 * Emilia - 0% - Nope...
 * Fabio - 0% - Nope...
 * Gilma - 0% - Nope...
 * Hector - 0% - Nope...
 * Illeana - 0% - Nope...
 * John - 0% - Nope...
 * Kristy - 0% - Nope...
 * Lane - 1% - For it's coolness
 * Miriam - 10% - For it's epicness
 * Olivia - 0% - Unless it becomes a major hurricane...

Kiewii, are you sure about Bud and Carlotta? They had minimal damage. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:42, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Of course I'm sure. It is very obvious they will not be retired so there isn't any need for any percentages. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:16, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, I just wouldn't say 0% for Bud/Carlotta since they did affect land and did kill people. Not to say I think they will be retired, but I don't think they deserve a 0%. Ryan1000 17:53, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

​Simlover123 (talk) 03:15, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta: 0% - Absolutely no effects on land masses.
 * Bud: 3% - Some effects on Mexico
 * Carlotta: 5% - Killed two girls and slight damage.
 * Daniel: 0% - Only slight effects on Hawaii.
 * Emilia: 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio: 0% - Nothing to say.
 * Gilma: 0% - No land masses affected.
 * Hector: 0% - Fail.
 * Ileana: 0% - Didn't affect any land, but it was a hurricane.
 * John: 0% - Even more of a fail than Hector.
 * Kristy: 0% - Nothing.
 * Lane: 0% - See Ileana's section.
 * Miriam: 0% - Didn't do anything except for becoming a major.
 * Norman: 1% - Very minimal damage.
 * Olivia: 0% - I don't think so.
 * Paul: 3% - Minimal damage.

Ok, here's mine! (I'm Liz) So, anyone agreed? :D
 * Aletta = -1/10. Hawaiian kid that lazes in the ocean. Like the red angry bird.
 * Bud = 2/10. Well... He did brush up the Mexico coast... *but he flopped like Bubbles off Angry Birds*
 * Carlotta = 3/10. Carly. You did kill people, right? Carlotta: I didn't know that! -cries-
 * Daniel = 0/10. Expelliarmus! (fail.) Even though he went to typhoon land.
 * Emillia = 0/10. Aloha, Emillia! You did nothing, nothing, nothingggggg.
 * Fabio = 0/10. The Fab I Oh did nothing too.
 * Gilma = 0/10. Try again Gilma... you can do better. Red Angry bird.
 * Hector = 0/10. Hector, I know you were a crossover, but you just lazed.
 * Illeanna <-- (Is this how you spell this name?) = 0.5/10. Just like another Beatriz... Like Chuck the yellow bird from angry birds.
 * john = -99999/10. F-A-I-L, you aint got no alibi... lol
 * Kristy = 0/10. She was john's lil sister!
 * lane = ??? Do I even know huh? Let's take da trip down memory lane
 * mariam = 0% didnt do anything
 * norman = 0% time to go back to normandy
 * olivia = 0% like a floating nyan cat in hawaii (i.e. did nothing)
 * paul = 1% nothing

188.223.248.201 19:21, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

@Liz: If I were to give percentages, I'd give Norman and Carlotta 5%, Bud and Paul 1%, and everything else 0% since they either had no affect on land or the countries they affected won't bother retirement. And the correct spelling is Ileana. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:59, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

ok (rides rainbow dash in ileana) i understand! :D 188.223.248.201 18:43, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Mid-season predictions
Entering the year, after over predicting the last two years, I set my exceptions moderate, with 13-8-4. After an active early July and the GFS showing a major surge in activity a few weeks ago that turned into three fails, I raised it to 18-9-4 (though I have a bias towards the EPAC) and I started getting really excited. I've lowered mine to 14-10-5. Despite there being an El Nino, it has that quiet feel, it has the feel of a dead center and a big quiet phase. With all of the recent 80 and 90% busts, I am starting to get frustrated with the EPAC. Thank goodness for HURDAT going back pre-1995, or I would have not survived the two seasons. At least 2009, 2008, and 2006-00 were decent.

Ill apologize for my rant above, I just needed to get it off my chest. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:25, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I'll go with 14-9-6. Honestly, we should've reached Illena (if those three busts were upgraded). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:53, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I say 14 to 16 name storms this basin has really come down from producing 18 to 21 name storms to 12to 14 really sad.*signs*Allanjeffs 14:15, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
This forum had been left untouched for a while, but the NHC rescently released some new TCR&apos;s here (well, they were finished a few weeks ago, but only today did they update their website). Does anyone have speculations on what might happen post-season? I think some of the 80% invests earlier this year might be upgraded to unnumbered depressions or unnamed storms, after thought to bust operationally. Ryan1000 16:35, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

Here are my predictions:

90E (Late July) - Tropical Storm Seven: 95% - I don&apos;t get why this wasn&apos;t called Gilma, and has a high chance of becoming an unnamed storm because I think it was a TS briefly.

95E (Late June) - Tropical Storm Five: 90% - I&apos;m quite certain this could&apos;ve been called Daniel, but it was too close to land for the NHC to issue advisories on it:

93E (Early June) - Tropical Storm Three: 70% - Not as certain, but I think this should have briefly been TS Carlotta.

Hurricane Carlotta - Major Hurricane Carlotta: 10% - Doubt it&apos;ll happen, but who knows?

Hurricane Fabio - Major Hurricane Fabio: 2% - ^^

Tropical Storm Olivia - Hurricane Olivia: 1% - Doubtful.

Otherwise, I don&apos;t think any significant updates in intensity will occur.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Also, the TCR&apos;s of Bud, Daniel, and Emilia came out. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:35, October 31, 2012 (UTC)

Probably none will be upgrade the NHC doesn`t upgrade invest to td or ts in the Eastern pacific if I remember correctly they have never done it and if they do maybe a td not a ts.Allanjeffs 05:08, October 31, 2012 (UTC)

Well, it&apos;s happened here, but not since Tropical Depression One-E in 1996 was retroactively upgraded to a tropical storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:58, October 31, 2012 (UTC)