User blog:CobraStrike/Invest 91L still an invest as Dominica readies for strike

Invest 91L, the tropical wave that has been traversing the Atlantic Ocean for the past week, remains an invest, albeit an organized one. Currently, the NHC gives this system a high 80% chance for formation into a tropical system. Hurricane Hunters are currently still in the storm, trying to find that closed circulation. The storm's center of circulation is now right up the Dominica coast, so the Dominicans should be ready as it moves into the Carribean. Radar out of Martinque shows some circulation going on, but it doesn't look like a closed circulation.

The forecast models for 91L are not as spaghetti like as they were before and they have some agreement. What all the models are agreeing on as a whole is that 91L will gradually move west northwest. Puerto Rico will see some impacts, but it will be mostly Hispanola, the countries of Dominican Republic and Haiti, that will see the most impact.

After that landfall, the models start to separate:


 * BAMD is the strangest, taking 91L to a sudden westerly movement, landfalling on northern Cuba and then a Texan hit?


 * GFS is taking the system over the Bahamas before landfalling on southern Florida and then recurving out into the Atlantic.


 * BAMM is similar to GFS, but except more west and southerly. It predicts that it will landfall on Monroe County and then a "main" landfall on Cape Coral.


 * HWRF is a BAMD but way more north, taking it over the Bahamas and then landfalling bullseye on Melborune, Florida.


 * GFDL looks for a Bahama impact before recurving out to sea.


 * LBAR has minimal Bahama impact before a maybe Carolina impact?