Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome
Okay, this may seem early, but the 2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone has technically began. Anyone is welcome to post predictions regarding total activity here.

Here are my predictions:

South-West Indian Ocean: 15-15-13-6 (DIS,D,MTS,TC) (Mirana)

Australian region: 14-12-6 (TL,TC,STC) (Kate, Alu, Bakung)

South Pacific: 16-15-13-6 (DIS,D,TC,STC) (Victor)

P.S. We missed a freak tropical disturbance that lasted from July 8 - 9 in the SWIO? Lindsay 2.0? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:43, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Betting Pools
Here. Ryan1000 16:28, December 31, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Edilson
Another one in the SWIO, forecast to head south and out to sea, maybe becoming a cat 1 on the way. Ryan1000 11:48, February 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * This shouldn't do much, since the JTWC only makes it peak at 50 knots before dying out for good by the 10th. Steven  09876  ✉  04:51, February 7, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Edilson
Edilson has dissipated. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:07, February 8, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11
Guys, we have a new depression in the SWIO! It's predicted to reach 60 knots while staying out to sea, so here comes Fobane! Steven 09876  ✉  04:51, February 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Officially TD 11 per MFR. It's now forecast to turn well away from any land. At best it might become a cat 1, but nothing more. Ryan1000 20:57, February 7, 2014 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Fobane
Now at 45 mph, 992 mbars. Ryan1000 12:35, February 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * I just saw the JTWC forecast track and it looks like its moving very weirdly and and erratically while spinning fish out in open SWIO waters. It's one of the weirdest tracks I've seen in a while! Well, luckily it's not threatening any land, but since it's predicted to peak only at 45 kts, I'll call it an epic FAIL!   Steve  820  ✉   20:11, February 8, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Fobane
Steve, I do not think I see Fobane as the same system. MFR has it at 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /977 mbar (hPa; 28.85 inHg), and the JTWC has it at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /70 knot (80 mph) gusts. While MFR does not expect further intensification, the JTWC bumps Fobane up to 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /85 knot (100 mph) gusts. So I would not call Fobane an epic fail, especially considering the intensity power outage the entire SHem has received since Colin and Ian. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:14, February 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, when I wrote my last post, the JTWC only took it up to 45 knots and I thought it would be an epic fail. Fobane must have gotten mad at me after I made fun of it and called it an epic fail yesterday lol. Now, it looks like Fobane won't be a fail at all! While the JTWC takes it up to 70 knots, I root for it to become stronger than that. It's still not predicted to threaten land at all, which means we can root for it to become as strong as it can!   Steve  820  ✉   19:50, February 9, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Fobane
It's been dead...for a while!  Steve  820  ✉   20:46, February 15, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Guito
It existed for a while already, forming on the 18th, and it already reached its peak as a Category 1 tropical cyclone too. Now, its just a weak 45 knot TS south of Madagascar, and it should be completely dead by the 23rd. Looks like everyone's been abandoning these forums, am I the only guy who's been tracking the SHem lately? I mean seriously, there should be at least some activity. Since the only thing that's been going on in these forums is dust gathering, and I'm getting bored of this forum, I'm also going to leave these forums starting today. I'll return to this wiki in mid-May when the EPac starts up and the NHem starts getting more TC activity, but for now...BYE EVERYBODY! I probably won't post on this wiki at all until May, but there's a chance I'll post if a massive Category 5 forms in the SHem or less likely, the WPac. I will still be active on the Hypothetical Hurricanes and Hypothetical Tornadoes wikis during this time, so look for me on those wikis.  Steve  820  ✉   00:10, February 22, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Guito
Guito is gone now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:00, February 23, 2014 (UTC)

Australian Region
First part archived. Ryan1000 16:24, December 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * Come on, me, I'm waiting on me! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 06:54, January 19, 2014 (UTC)

TCWC Darwin Tropical Low
TCWC Darwin has reported a tropical low developing over a Top End monsoon trough. It has a current pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). No comment yet from the JTWC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:55, January 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hey Dylan, here comes your storm! :D  ;)  Steven  09876  ✉  01:49, January 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * I can't wait to see what the storm named Dylan will do. Will it develop from this tropical low?  Steven  09876  ✉  01:53, January 25, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of TCWC Darwin Tropical Low
And...this tropical low degenerated without ever even receiving a number. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:31, January 27, 2014 (UTC)

07U.DYLAN
See here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:53, January 26, 2014 (UTC)

OMG IM ACTUALLY WETTING MY PANTS RIGHT AT THIS MOMENT there is a storm named after dylan? WELL IMMA RING IN BOB! “i liek turtlez 21:47, January 30, 2014 (UTC)

Or Karen. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:03, January 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan's mom's name? That isn't really important compared to if somebody on this wiki had a cyclone named after them, but I guess it's cool enough! And also remember how much that storm epically failed? It didn't even make it to the Gulf Coast tropical!  Steven  09876  ✉  23:44, January 31, 2014 (UTC)

TCWC Darwin Tropical Low
Per TCWC Darwin, a 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg) tropical low has developed near Top End, Australia. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:03, January 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here comes Edna!  Steven  09876  ✉  23:44, January 31, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Low 09U
This tropical low, now numbered 09U by the BoM, made landfall over Australia. At a current intensity of 45 km/h (20 knots, 27 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg), it is expected to move back over water and become a Category 1 tropical cyclone. The JTWC reports an overall weak structure yet increasing development potential from Tropical Low 09U and gives it a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:25, February 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Tropical Low 09U is still active, with a pressure of 993 mbar (hPa; 29.32 inHg). It is currently over northern Australia, and it is expected to receive a name once it reemerges over water. (Andrew wrote this)


 * Tropical Low 09U is no longer expected to move over water or receive a name per the BoM. The agency has its pressure at an insane 988 mbar (hPa; 29.18 inHg), which is lower than Alessia, Edna, and Fletcher's minimum pressures. The JTWC, owing to its poor organization, gives the cyclone a low chance of becoming tropical per their standards. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:17, February 9, 2014 (UTC)

TCWC Perth Tropical Low
TCWC Perth has reported the formation of a tropical low with a pressure of 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg) near the Browse Basin. The JTWC reports a weak organization structure and gives it a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:25, February 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Fletcher
This tropical low became Cyclone 08U (Fletcher) before dissipating. Ironically, Fletcher outlasted Edna. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:15, February 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fletcher apparently moved erratically over northern Australia, bringing lots of rain and possibly lots of flash flooding. Hopefully it wasn't too bad.  Steve  820  ✉   19:57, February 8, 2014 (UTC)

10U.EDNA
''Due to the short-lived nature of Cyclone Edna, no posts were made on the system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:25, February 2, 2014 (UTC)''
 * Wow, this is one of the biggest name wastes I've ever seen! Even though it did affect Queensland a bit, it's still an epic fail/name waster. Enough said. Steven  09876  ✉  22:18, February 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's actually still alive in the SPac by now, moving over New Caledonia then out to sea. Ryan1000 11:51, February 5, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Edna
It's dead. I'm surprised it lasted this long, especially after Andrew's message put me in that fail attitude. I guess Edna wasn't the massive fail I thought, but still pretty pathetic. Steven 09876  ✉  04:45, February 7, 2014 (UTC)

TCWC Darwin Tropical Low
TCWC Darwin has reported the formation of a new tropical low over the Gulf of Carpentaria. It has a pressure of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg) per the agency. NRL has this system as Invest 91P, with an intensity of 15 knots (15 mph)/1010 mbar (hPa). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:07, February 23, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15F
Finally, another one in the SPac. Currently east of Fiji, forecast to head south, becoming a cat 1 or 2 on the way. Ryan1000 21:26, February 28, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Well, I usually wait four storms to start this section, and it now looks like I can (even if only a couple names deserve retirement).

My predictions:


 * 1) Alessia (AUS) - 10% - Rainfall in the Gulf of Carpentaria was a little heavy, but that is contrasted by Alessia's lack of damage elsewhere. I usually give a storm like Alessia a 1%, but considering how lenient Australia is on retirement...
 * 2) Amara (SWIO) - 0% - Name cannot be retired.
 * 3) Bruce (AUS) - 5% - Bruce did produce some small effects on Indonesia and Cocos Islands, but those will very likely not earn it retirement, especially if no damages or deaths were reported. The stunt Bruce performed of reaching Category 5 intensity after crossing into the SWIO will not get it the boot either.
 * 4) Christine (AUS) - 70% - I may be going a little overboard here, but the city of Wickham in Australia considers this storm the worst storm in recent memory, and further down south, record heat was caused. Moomba nearly broke their record high, and a fire ban was issued for all of Southern Australia. Despite not causing any deaths or damage, this is Australia we are talking about, and if Rusty last year got the boot, Christine may have a decent chance as well.
 * 5) Bejisa (SWIO) - 0% - See Amara.
 * 6) Ian (SPAC) - 60% - Whole homes in Tonga have been flattened. We have a good retiree right here.
 * 7) Colin (SWIO) - 0% - See Amara and Bejisa.
 * 8) Deliwe (SWIO) - 0% - You get the point now...
 * 9) June (SPAC) - 5% - June did affect a variety of landmasses, but all of them reported only very minimal impact from the storm. Being a basin crosser does not really help here.
 * 10) Dylan (AUS) - 15% - Although Dylan was a very weak storm, the damage it caused rivals Alessia's. Normally, I would give a storm like Dylan 1%, but knowing Australia...
 * 11) Edna (AUS) - 5% - Edna did affect Queensland. Now, this is the Australian region, but I think even Australia would know better to retire this.
 * 12) Fletcher (AUS) - 10% - Fletcher is basically a repeat of Alessia.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:42, January 6, 2014 (UTC)

Knowing Australia, Christine is definitely going to be retired, but I don't expect anything else to go as of yet. Ryan1000 14:19, January 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hey Andrew, you don't have to include every single SWIO storm in your retirement predictions. Since SWIO storms can't be retired, I would recommend removing those storms and putting something like "The SWIO storms, such as Amara, Bejisa, and the others, are not included because they cannot be retired". I'll also recommend spitting the storms into each of their basins (like what me and Ryan did) to reduce any clutter and confusion and make the storms slightly easier to find. Steven  09876  ✉  01:38, January 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * The SHem will be split into their 3 seperate basins starting next year. For the rest of this season, leave the page the way it is. Ryan1000 19:15, January 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * What I meant to say was for Andrew to split his retirement predictions into each of their basin sections (one section for South Pacific and the other for the Australian region) like what me and you did, instead of having the retirement predictions all mixed up. Even though I wasn't talking about this, I also like the idea of splitting the whole forum page into 3 basins next year. It'll certainly be much easier to navigate and find the storms on this page!  Steven  09876  ✉  20:25, January 26, 2014 (UTC)

Steven's retirement predictions:

South-West Indian Ocean:


 * Names can't be retired here. Duh!

Australian Region:
 * Alessia: 5% - Not enough impact in Australia.
 * Bruce: 1% - 0.5% for impacts in Indonesia and Cocos Islands, and bonus points for being an incredibly awesome storm that reached C5 intensity without causing huge danger for landmasses.
 * Christine: 75% - Since Wickham called this storm one of their worst in recent memory, an unusual heat wave struck just south of the storm, and how Australia is with retirements, I'm going with a very high chance for retirement. If Lua and Rusty was retired, then Christine might leave as well.
 * Dylan: 15% - A weak storm who made a landfall in Australia. Since about everything that hits them has a chance of retirement, Dylan has a tiny chance as well.
 * Edna: 5% - Caused a little bit of Australian impacts, but since it was completely weak and did barely any impacts, retirement ain't happening.
 * Fletcher - 10% - It affected northern Australia, but retirement seems unlikely.

To be continued...

South Pacific:
 * Ian: 75% - Apparently this storm was very bad for Tonga according to Ryan's percentages down below. I think it will be retired, and this storm really deserves retirement for all the damage it's done!
 * June: 5% - Since it was just a weak TS that didn't affect land all that much, retirement isn't happening.

To be continued...

 Steve  820  ✉   01:43, January 11, 2014 (UTC)

(Steven's retirement predictions were last updated at 20:14, February 8, 2014 (UTC))

Ryan Grand's thoughts:

Australian Region: South Pacific: There you have it. Ryan1000 22:05, January 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Alessia - 3% - Meh, even Australia wouldn't retire this.
 * Bruce - <1% - It did cause some impacts on a few islands out in the middle of nowhere, but what I like most is that it became a cat 5 well out to sea. Perfect storm to track.
 * Christine - 80% - Australia has a very generous track record of retirement, if they retired Lua and Rusty then Christine is out as well.
 * Dylan - 25% - Bumping it a bit high since this is Australia, but otherwise meh.
 * Edna - 20% - Only because of their track record...if it wasn't for that, this'd be a 0%.
 * Fletcher - 10% - Minor at most.
 * Ian - 70% - It was described as one of the worst storms in the history of a few of the Tonga islands. One island lost 8000 homes (70% of the population), and 1 person died. Likely going to be retired.
 * June - 15% - Damage wasn't negligible, but I don't find it retirement-worthy.

Spcardozo's retirements

 * 1) dylan 100%
 * 2) ian 100%
 * 3) bruce 50%
 * 4) christine 32%


 * Uhh, Dylan wasn't that bad, not even close. Also, Bruce stayed out to sea, so it isn't going to be retired at all even though it reached Cat. 5 intensity. And Christine should have a much higher chance of retirement than 32%, since it caused plenty of impacts in Australia and especially since any storm that causes only a little bit of impacts in that country gets retired. Ian should also be slightly lower too, since while retirement isn't extremely certain to happen, it still has a pretty high chance of happening due to its impacts. You don't understand how retirement works. Your retirement predictions are way to extreme for any of us to trust, especially due to my opinions above. Also note that the guy who wrote these retirement predictions is currently blocked, see his block log. Steven  09876  ✉  05:01, February 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm probably gonna live to ride again another day XD --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 05:11, February 7, 2014 (UTC)