Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season

July
We haven't made a header on this yet, but we might as well now. Also, in case you haven't seen it yet, I've made the SHem forums and betting pools for next year, if you're bored and wanted to bet on something...the hall of fame also still has room open for inductees on the SHem basins. Ryan1000 11:06, July 4, 2018 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
Just as Maria becomes post-tropical, we have an invest with a low chance from JTWC. -- Roy 25  19:52, July 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:02, July 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code red, TCFA issued. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:04, July 14, 2018 (UTC)

This may hit the Philippines in the coming days. Highly likely to be named Henry by PAGASA, but I am not yet 100% sure if it will become Son-Tinh. And you're possibly correct KN, 94W may have merged with 92W. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:52, July 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this should be Henry and probably Son-Tinh. Hopefully it's nothing destructive or deadly over the next several days. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11W (Henry)
JMA, PAGASA & the JTWC all upgraded this to a TD. May become Son-Tinh sooner or later. It also turns out that 94W did not merge with 92W/11W, since the former reappeared in JTWC's website. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to intensify to a strong tropical storm, skirt northern Philippines, and affect Hainan and Vietnam in the long run. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:41, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (Henry)
Now named Son-Tinh. It probably would be weak as it forecast to pass the Philippines and into China. -- Roy 25  02:23, July 17, 2018 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
And another invest appears. East of Mindanao, southwest of 92W. Code yellow as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:47, July 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now has a medium chance of formation. Apparently, this and 92W are racing to become Son-Tinh (and likely, Henry). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:01, July 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gone. Probably merged with 92W. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:04, July 14, 2018 (UTC)

Oops. It appeared again on JTWC's site. Code orange now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC)


 * The environment is pretty favorable for both this and the below system. We could get 2 new depressions in the coming days. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
Near/over Hainan island, code yellow. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:04, July 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to medium, but shouldn't become anything much due to unfavourable conditions. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:10, July 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Considering land proximity and unfavorable environmental conditions, I doubt it will significantly develop/organize. Still looks like a flooder though, hopefully it's nothing deadly. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:13, July 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actually, JTWC's wording now says the environment has improved. A TD is possible. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:45, July 15, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Since we've got 8 storms so far and Maria is looking like our first serious retirement candidate this year, we can begin this section now. Without further ado, here are my calls so far:

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
JMA: PAGASA: There you have it. Anyone else have thoughts? Ryan1000 16:55, July 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Bolaven - 20% - Caused some damage in the Philippines, but it wasn't as bad as some of the late-season storms last year (Kai-Tak and Tembin), and I'm not seeing a retirement in this case.
 * Sanba - 10% - Wasn't as bad as Bolaven, but gets credit for the minor impacts regardless.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Caused some rainfall over a few pacific islands, but no damage or deaths were reported.
 * Ewiniar - 30% - Was a somewhat destructive flood event for parts of southern China, but it wasn't as severe as some past storms in the country (like Hato last year, for example). Gets credit, but I don't think it'll be retired.
 * Maliksi - 1% - Killed two in the Philippines, but was otherwise a fishspinner.
 * Gaemi - 2% - Caused minor damage and killed 3 people as it passed southern Taiwan, but it won't be retired for that.
 * Prapiroon - 1% - Killed a person in South Korea and contributed to extensive flooding in Japan, but it wasn't directly responsible for most of the damage there.
 * Maria - >45% - Cutting this down a bit since current damage projections are only at 432 million dollars, even less than Ewiniar, but that may still increase later on. And fortunately, only 1 person was killed.
 * All names - 0% - So far, nothing has met the retirement criteria of 1 Billion PHP damage and/or 300 deaths in the Philippines, so nothing is getting retired here as of yet.

Roy25's prediction
Might as well add mine with Maria nearing land, and may be devastating.

Intensity colors: TD, TS , C1 , C2 , C3 , C4 , C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , 40-49% , 50% , 51-59% , 60-69% , 70-79% , 80-89% , 90-99% , 100% , ???

JMA:
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Bolaven ( 15% ) - Had caused some damage in the Phillippines, but this won't be retired
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba ( 10% ) - Killed quite alot but this also won't be going
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat ( 0% ) - Caused no damage and deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar ( 8% ) - Killed 8 and caused just over half a billion, but I doubt this name will go
 * <font color="#00faf4">Maliksi ( 0.001% ) - Didn't do too much other than 2 deaths
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi ( 0.001% ) - Same as Maliksi, even with one extra death
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon ( 9% ) - While stronger, other than 1 death, this storm didn't do too much
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria (???) - Currently active

PAGASA
 * All names used this season ( 0% ) - Didn't met PAGASA requirement for retirement

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

-- Roy 25  18:32, July 10, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0 retirement projections
JMA names
 * Bolaven - 5% - Minor damage; Philippines has seen worse.
 * Sanba - 5% - Same as above.
 * Jelawat - 0% - Early super typhoon, but also a fishspinner.
 * Ewiniar - 20% - There is substantial damage in China, but China has seen more ferocious storms than this.
 * Maliksi - 5% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon in the Philippines and killed 2 people, but I don't think it will be decomissioned from the list. Storms such as Saola & Haikui '12, Trami '13, Fung-wong '14, Chan-hom & Linfa '15 and Doksuri '17 caused more disruption to the Philippines and did not get retired; I think the same thing applies to Maliksi.
 * Gaemi - 1% - 3 deaths, minor damage... uh, Gaemi will stay.
 * Prapiroon - 15% - No direct effects but this storm exacerbated the massive rain event in Japan which has killed more than 200 people. But if its 2000 incarnation did not get the boot, why should its 4th incarnation get it?
 * Maria - 35% - The missing link between the fishspinner Marie in 2014 and the devastating Atlantic Maria last year. A great spectacle, and fortunately not as destructive as everyone feared. Caused notable damage, but the low fatality count would surely lessen Maria's chances of retirement. However, the U.S. may still request to remove this (a la Yanyan/Tingting/Vicente) due to the eponymous Atlantic storm.

PAGASA names
 * Agaton to Caloy - 0% - Did not meet the criteria.
 * Domeng - 5% - Did not meet the criteria but I still gave it 5% because maybe – just maybe – PAGASA strikes this out of the list due to its relatively notable impacts.
 * Ester to Gardo - 0% - Same as the first 3 storms of the year.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:59, July 15, 2018 (UTC). Last updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:08, July 15, 2018 (UTC).

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors:  Based off of JMA intensities, except if otherwise noted. <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#900">200+ mph '''

Retirement percentage colors:  0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA

International:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bolaven :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">6% - Only slight impacts, not enough to get retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Weak name stealer, JTWC did not even consider this a tropical storm. It did cause some impacts which makes it somewhat memorable.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Sanba :
 * Retirement: <font color="#05F">8% - More deadly than Bolaven, but less damage. The deaths slightly boost up my percentage. Another non-candidate for retirement, though.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - A tiny bit stronger than Bolaven, but still a weak fail. Like Bolaven, caused slightly memorable impacts.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jelawat :
 * Retirement: <font color="#77A">0.001% - Basically a fishspinner, except for tiny impacts in Palau, the Caroline Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Amazing super typhoon in late March. As a bonus, it almost completely avoided land. Gets more credit for time of the year. A C5 would have earned it an "EO" rating.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">04W :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Although it was a piece of junk, I do have to give it a tiny bit of credit for not stealing a name despite JTWC considering it a tropical storm.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ewiniar :
 * Retirement: <font color="#3F0">32% - $573 million is a pretty significant damage bill which makes retirement an outside possibility. 15 deaths as well. But they have still seen much worse, plus this was a weak storm.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Another weakling, but with memorability that prevents it from falling to lower grades.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Maliksi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.5% - Impacts were insignificant. 2 deaths unfortunately.
 * Grading: <font color="#F90">D+ - Credit for barely making typhoon status (JMA). JTWC refused to call it a typhoon though.


 * <font color="#00faf4">07W (JTWC only) :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - The agencies differ on whether this was an extratropical low (JMA) or a tropical system (JTWC). In my book, this gets some credit for being of TS intensity (40 mph/993 mbar) and not stealing a name.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gaemi :
 * Retirement: <font color="#44C">0.7% - Like Maliksi, insignificant impacts and few deaths. One additional death slightly increases my percentage.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Stronger than previous tropical storms, but still pretty weak overall.


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Prapiroon :
 * Retirement: 3% - Only 1 death and little impacts. However, it contributed to the devastating Japan floods, and as a result it has a boosted chance compared with other storms with the same impacts
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - At least it reached typhoon intensity by both agencies, even though it was near the bare minimum for typhoon strength.


 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria :
 * Retirement: <font color="#0F0">27% - Looked like it would be a monster, but damage and deaths appear to be less than initially feared. Devastation was even less than Ewiniar unless more reports come in, and deaths were much less than Ewiniar.
 * Grading: <font color="#077">A++ - Reached an incredible intensity, and would have been EO if it stayed out to sea.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">11W :
 * Retirement: N/A - Hasn't received a name (yet).
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Still active.

PAGASA:
 * No name meets their retirement criteria yet.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, with a couple exceptions shown below.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * STS - or severe tropical storm - is an official intensity used in basins such as the WPac. I use this intensity in every basin to describe storms that peak at 60 - 70 mph. "TS," on my scale, is just for the 40 - 50 mph range.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 22:32, July 15, 2018 (UTC))