Forum:2018-19 Australian Region cyclone season/September-May

91P.INVEST
Code orange on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:40, September 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * It looks like this is in Papua New Guinea's region. If this develops and becomes named, it will not just be the first Papua New Guinea named storm since 2007, but also develop extremely early (equivalent of late March in the NHem). Insane... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:39, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

(See the South Pacific forum for this system's later developments.)

96S.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits in the TCWC Jakarta area of responsibility. No agency is actually noticing the invest ATM, but let's see what this does. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:01, November 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * If I recall correctly, it appeared briefly on JTWC in the past couple days. Now only on BOM's western region outlook, but no longer expected to do anything. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:55, November 17, 2018 (UTC)

97P.INVEST
New invest on JTWC. A lot of the forecast models including the GFS and HWRF say this will become a hurricane-strength storm, maybe even up to a C3 or C4. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:52, November 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Owen
And the first named storm of the Australian region season is here. Currently over the Coral Sea and is forecast to head west towards Queensland, but may not intensify much due to unfavorable conditions. It seems Owen won't have to wait until the 2022 AHS to be used...he's active right now in Australia! Ryan1000 17:28, December 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Owen just couldn't wait for his big break. Currently at 50 mph (1-minute) and 995 hPa. Send Help Please  (talk) 02:11, December 3, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Owen
Like I expected, Owen didn't last long due to less than favorable conditions, and now he's dead. Hopefully his future 2022 Atlantic incarnation does better. Ryan1000 22:26, December 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Owen's ghost is actually on JTWC with code orange at the moment. Maybe it wants one last shot before going away for a few years. ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  06:53, December 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Owen (2nd time)
Regenerated yesterday or 2 days ago, but is now a C2 on the AUS scale. ~ Roy25    Happy Holidays!!!  |  🎄     02:44, December 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Owen's looking better organized by now and could intensify further in the Gulf of Carpentaria before making a landfall again at cyclone intensity (75 mph or stronger 1-min), but fortunately this area of Australia isn't particularly populated, though SST's are very warm in this area of Australia's waters. Ryan1000 10:44, December 12, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen
Owen's up to a severe tropical cyclone (cat. 3 on their scale, cat. 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale), and is forecast to become a 105 mph cat. 2 before making landfall in an unpopulated part of Australia. Ryan1000 04:40, December 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Owen (3rd time)
No longer a severe tropical cyclone after landfall, but Owen should move over Australia and back to the Coral Sea, where he'll probably dissipate for good. Ryan1000 07:01, December 15, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Owen (2nd time)
Wow, I missed a majority of my namesake's lifespan. Anyway, this is such an erratic and unpredictable cyclone that the BOM has noted he could regenerate once again. Owen 05:15, December 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Owen's circulation looks like it's all but gone now. He could still regenerate, but I won't count on it. Ryan1000 17:48, December 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Low 05U
Another tropical low is out there, but this shouldn't do much. I believe this is the one Tropical Tidbits has just off of Queensland in Owen's wake. Ryan1000 04:43, December 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it's gone now. Ryan1000 07:02, December 15, 2018 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
This invest is southwest of the island of Java, Indonesia right now. It might become something as it moves southwest itself, but it's nothing too serious right now. Ryan1000 04:43, December 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga
Now it's named Kenanga. Should remain out at sea, regardless of how strong it gets. Ryan1000 01:34, December 16, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it crossed into the SWIO basin (see that forum for further information on this storm from now on). Ryan1000 17:54, December 16, 2018 (UTC)

93S.INVEST
Another invest is currently north of Australia, but it probably won't do too much. Ryan1000 12:25, December 28, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Low 07U
A lot of tropical lows are currently forming off of northern Australia, this is the most prominent one as of now, expected to move eastward towards a landfall on the Cape York Peninsula and into the SPac basin. There are about 3 or 4 other Tropical Lows right now, but this is the only one that has been numbered, as it's already a TS by the JTWC. Ryan1000 13:40, December 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Penny
Now it's named Penny. Ryan1000 12:49, January 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Penny moved quickly across the Cape York Peninsula and is currently over the Coral Sea, but is expected to turn back west and possibly make a second landfall before dying, but strong shear is keeping Penny's intensity in check for now. Ryan1000 08:22, January 5, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Penny
Died a short while ago. Ryan1000 15:35, January 10, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Riley
Another TC is currently forming off northern Australia, it's expected to move southwest while remaining north of a landfall. There were some other tropical lows that we didn't update between this and 07U (Penny) but they weren't notable. Ryan1000 22:00, January 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to category 2 on the Australian scale and could become a cat 3 or stronger on their scale soon (cat 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, or by the JTWC). Still expected to remain north of a landfall though. Ryan1000 04:57, January 25, 2019 (UTC)

Not much has changed with Riley, it'll probably keep going west for some time and may dissipate in the Indian Ocean sometime late next week, maybe later if Riley manages to arc west-northwest and last longer. Ryan1000 08:10, January 28, 2019 (UTC)

...Doesn't seem that anyone really cares about this storm...but anyways, Riley has weakened to 40 mph lately and may die soon while moving over less favorable conditions across the Indian Ocean. Ryan1000 12:46, January 29, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Riley
Dead and gone. Ryan1000 21:07, January 30, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Savannah
A new tropical storm has formed in the south-east Indian Ocean. It currently has 1-min sustained winds of 40 knots and is forecast to move into the south-west Indian Ocean by March 19 with 65 knot winds. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:45, March 14, 2019 (UTC)


 * It probably won't affect land, unless it manages to survive well into the SWIO and make it to Africa, though that doesn't often happen. Ryan1000 10:39, March 15, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Savannah was actually 17U, so this newly-formed storm (Trevor) is 18U. Anyways, Savannah is moving out to sea over the SWIO basin as of now, and Trevor is expected to move over the Cape York Peninsula of Queensland as a weak TC before re-intensifying, possibly considerably (JTWC makes this a 115 knot cat 4) over the Gulf of Carpentaria. Ryan1000 10:41, March 18, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor
This storm is getting worse. Already a cat 2-strength storm in terms of 1-min sustained wind speeds and a cat 3 on the Australian scale. The JTWC is taking this to at least 105 knots by the time it makes landfall. This is bad news... IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:33, March 19, 2019 (UTC)


 * Trevor intensified to a 115 mph cat 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale just before hitting the Cape York Peninsula and is forecast to reintensify to that before making a second landfall somewhere on the coast of the Gulf of Carpentaria, though fortunately that area isn't populated at all, except for a few small towns like Numbulwar or Angurugu, Alyangula, or Umbakumba on the island of Groote Eylandt, in the direction Trevor is heading. Ryan1000 14:10, March 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Weakened to a weak tropical storm (cat-1) on the Australian scale, but is still expected to become a major hurricane again (but not as strong as Veronica) by the time it makes its second landfall. Afterwards it's quick weakening from there on out. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:29, March 21, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Trevor (2nd time)
Back to Cat 3 in the AUS scale. Expected to become Cat 4 in that scale / Cat 2 in the SSHWS before 2nd landfall. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:16, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Managed to reach Cat 3 in the SSHWS. Evacuations have been implemented in Northern Territory – the largest since Tracy according to some media outlets. I just hope that Trevor won't do much damage in the area, even if it is sparsely populated. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:53, March 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Already made its 2nd landfall. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:12, March 23, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Trevor
Dying over Australia. Ryan1000 20:38, March 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Low 19U
Another tropical low north of Australia has formed recently, but it could, according to some recent runs of the GFS and CMC, become a strong storm (named Veronica) hitting western Australia. Ryan1000 16:41, March 19, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica
Yeah, it intensified that fast. Now a Cat 3 in the Australian scale, still a TS in the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:01, March 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Safe to say this isn't 60 knots anymore.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:41, March 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Already a 110 knot category 3 on the SSHS, and the JTWC is forecasting a category 5 out of this in two days. Thankfully, they have it making landfall as a weaker hurricane / strong tropical storm. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:25, March 21, 2019 (UTC)

No one edited the active storms template in a while...in any instance, Veronica is expected to become a top-end category 4 or 5 by the JTWC now, but hopefully less favorable conditions near shore wear her down considerably by the time she reaches Port Headland, currently forecast to do so as an 85 mph storm. Ryan1000 14:19, March 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now the strongest this season; expected to become Cat 4 in the SSHWS too, but Cat 5 is still slightly in the cards. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:17, March 22, 2019 (UTC)

Still a Cat 4 in the Australian scale, but Veronica is now a Cat 1 in the SSHWS. Second storm to make landfall in Australia in less than 24 hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:56, March 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Okay this is getting confusing: according to Wikipedia, Veronica is now a C4 in the SSHWS, but down to a C3 in the Australian scale. JTWC's website meanwhile says that Veronica is now down to 80 kts (around 150 kph/90 mph), which makes Veronica a C2. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:03, March 23, 2019 (UTC)

Veronica stalled near the coast of Northwest Australia before moving ashore west of Port Headland. It caused heavy flooding in some areas, but it's expected to turn west over land and over the Indian Ocean. Hopefully no one gets killed. Ryan1000 20:38, March 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Veronica (2nd time)
Going down fast... Ryan1000 12:15, March 26, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Veronica
Veronica has now become nothing more than a naked swirl over the Indian Ocean. Should be dead anytime soon. Ryan1000 17:59, March 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * The damage totals are $1.6 billion as of April 5.  Sandy 156   :)  23:36, April 5, 2019 (UTC)

97S.INVEST
New Invest located near the tip of australia. Currently at Orange risk.Nickcoro (talk) 21:14, April 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Wallace
That invest was now upgraded to a tropical cyclone, named Wallace by the BOM.  Sandy 156   :)  23:39, April 5, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Wallace
Long gone. Ryan1000 03:51, April 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Lili
A weak storm north of Austrailia. Won't amount to much, but could impact the coasts of Timor-Leste later as a Tropical Depression. Nickcoro (talk) 21:54, May 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nickcoro, just to clarify, Lili is actually in the Australian Region basin, not in the Southwest Indian basin. So, I’m going to move it to the 2018-19 Australian Region cyclone season page.  Sandy 156   :)  00:44, May 10, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Lili
Dissipated today.  Sandy 156   :)  19:21, May 11, 2019 (UTC)

94P.INVEST
Another invest has formed in this basin. JTWC issues a TCFA on this system. It may have a chance of becoming Rita.  Sandy 156   :)  16:30, May 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Ann
Nevermind, it formed in the Aus. Region and was named Ann.  Sandy 156   :)  19:19, May 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Rather late in the year to see a storm like this form in the Australian region. Fortunately conditions don't favor Ann intensifying very much before moving west into the Cape York Peninsula. Ryan1000 07:26, May 13, 2019 (UTC)

Ann's been zipping along fairly fast, and is now northeast of Darwin. Conditions still aren't favorable for it to get much stronger though, and Ann should dissipate sometime soon. Ryan1000 16:30, May 16, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ann
Died a few days ago. Ryan1000 09:45, May 20, 2019 (UTC)