Forum:2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Future start
...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:21, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Btw, Fiji Met's website got a new design :D Isaac829  E-Mail  00:15, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

Betting pools
Finally made them. We don't have a first storm formation section though, because we made them too late. Anja already formed. =( Ryan1000 17:13, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

Ask Lolita! (South Pacific)
Lolita would love to hear your questions about the 2012-13 SPAC season. Just set them out like this:

Q) When will hurricane Annais dissipate?

Thanks!

Haley
Q) Will Tropical Cyclone Haley cross into the Australian region and make a landfall over Queensland? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:25, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

Spot on! You've got it correct! I predict that Haley will be a category 2/3.  Lolly 

Ask Kenneth! (Australian Region)
Kenneth would love to hear your questions about the 2012-13 Australia season. Just set them out like this:



Q) When will hurricanes Narelle and Peta make landfall?

Thanks!

Rusty
Q): Will Tropical Cyclone Rusty become a severe tropical cyclone? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:29, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

Rusty hasn't formed yet. It's next on the list, though. Fpschmitt1 (talk) 00:35, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

Oh, I know. But when it does, I would love to hear Kenneth's prediction for the storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:32, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

OOOOO! TYVM for all the great responses! I think, IMO, (K)Rusty the Clown is going to be like the next Narelle. A category 5. Like Yassie though. Very bad.  FROM KENNY

Tropical Depression 07
Okay, it looks like the South-West Indian Ocean is awake after taking a short nap from tropical disturbances. Does anyone currently predict a Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

I'm actually calling at least a category one out of this before it runs into Madagascar on Tuesday. I think our first landfalling cyclone of the SWIO is about to unfold. Ryan1000 21:21, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

Peressure slightly up to 1000 mbar, but the RSMC La Réunion still expects a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Felleng
Now named. However, drastic change in track forecast, now it's expected to move south before it ever reaches Madagascar. Ryan1000 21:48, January 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * I gotta felleng, that this storm is gonna be a good good storm. TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT, HE IS GOING TO BE A CATEGORY 4! (That's my hypothesis, I see him becoming an intense hurricane. Oof!) Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 23:13, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Felleng
Currently undergoing rapid deepening, wouldn't be all that surprised if it briefly becomes a very intense tropical cyclone. Supportstorm (talk) 12:59, January 29, 2013 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng
Taking off... Ryan1000 17:15, January 30, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (2nd time)
And back down. Ryan1000 12:53, February 2, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng (2nd time)
Almost out... Ryan1000 10:27, February 3, 2013 (UTC)

Extratropical Depression Ex-Felleng
Out. Isaac829 E-Mail  17:58, February 3, 2013 (UTC)

Yep, that's it. We might be in slumber for some time now, knowing that nothing is expected to develop in the near-future for the rest of the SHem. Ryan1000 22:18, February 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08
New SWIO system, likely going to become Gino as it heads southward out to sea, becoming a C1/2 on the way. Ryan1000 10:41, February 11, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Gino
Now Gino. Ryan1000 14:33, February 11, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Gino
Going up, though still a ways away from land. Ryan1000 14:52, February 12, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Gino
Cat 1 now. Ryan1000 06:31, February 13, 2013 (UTC)

Extratropical Depression Ex-Gino
Down and out. Ryan1000 17:37, February 15, 2013 (UTC)

16S.HARUNA
Basically a tropical depression now. GFS predicts that 94S will become a cyclone before making landfall on the very southern tip of Madagascar on the 21st. Supportstorm (talk) 03:29, February 18, 2013 (UTC)

I have a feeling this area of disturbed weather will become Haruna sometime later today or tomorrow. However, while the GFS has this hitting Madagascar in 3 days time, the ECMWF keeps this in the channel for at least 5 days or so until making landfall as a powerful storm. Ryan1000 13:43, February 18, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 09
La Reunion seems to be following the ECMWF model, which I wouldn't be surprised if it takes that path. The last week it's done nothing more than swirl in circles in that channel. Supportstorm (talk) 16:06, February 18, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Haruna
Now a MTS. Forecast to head towards the southern end of Madagascar (as said earlier), as a strong TS or a TC. Ryan1000 00:57, February 20, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Haruna
It's really pretty looking on satellite, but unfortunately it's also looking like it will be making landfall as a upper Cat. 3 or minimal Cat. 4 cyclone. Supportstorm (talk) 03:31, February 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haruna might peak where it is now or it could become a stronger cat 3, but I don't think it will become a cat 4. Haruna is also featuring a very large eye, almost 50 miles across. It's probrably going to end up making landfall near Toliara sometime later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 18:41, February 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now making landfall at cat 2 or 3 not sure.Allanjeffs 03:33, February 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Haruna made landfall near Toliara (as I said earlier), as a 105 mph category 2 cyclone last night, just weakening from it's category 3 peak. Looks like the GFS nailed this one right on the head. The Euro was calling for Haruna to stall in the Mozambique Channel for about 5 days and make landfall in southern Madagascar as a category 5 monster. Looks like that never panned out. Hopefully impacts weren't too bad for Madagascar, emergency preparations have greatly improved in that country over the past several years. It still remains a problem in Mozambique, but hopefully they'll be as good as them in the future. Ryan1000 16:27, February 22, 2013 (UTC)

Extratropical Disturbance Ex-Haruna
Wow, that was fast. Died out already. At least one person was reported to have died in Madagascar thus far. MFR sees it briefly reintensifying into a MTS before going away for good. Ryan1000 12:07, February 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * JTWC is still making advisories. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:34, February 24, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Rusty
Australia's starting to ramp up with this and 11U (below). This should become at least a cat 1 before landfall. Ryan1000 17:58, February 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * This storm appears to be rapidly intensifying atm. Yqt1001 (talk) 18:54, February 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I say cat 4 in our scale an Rusty would probably be retireas Australia tends to retire every storm that makes landfall.Allanjeffs 22:50, February 24, 2013 (UTC)

Now up to a Category 2 tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:37, February 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wuh oh, 48 hour forecast calls for Rusty to become a 135 mph cat 4 before slamming ashore just west of Port Headland. It's also pretty big, they're gonna have to be leaving by now, or this storm could get really nasty for the folks there. Ryan1000 02:45, February 25, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like that forecast was too hyped up. Never happened to get past 85 mph. Still, this one could be a hassle for the folks near Port Headland. Ryan1000 14:19, February 26, 2013 (UTC)

Rusty has intensify to cat 3 it may very well reach cat 4 in the next couple of hours.Allanjeffs 20:47, February 26, 2013 (UTC)

It looks like Rusty has stalled about 80 km off the coast of Australia, this is not good as it gives extra time for him to strengthen (Already has T scores that are up to cat.3), keep flooding squalls training over the same areas, and it now looks like the storm is moving in a slightly move eastern direction than before. Supportstorm (talk) 23:59, February 26, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rusty
This is going to be an extremely rusty situation for Northwestern Australia. Now a Category 4 tropical cyclone (AUS scale), it is about to make landfall, potentionally becoming a Category 5 tropical cyclone (AUS scale), also. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:30, February 27, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Low 11U
New one, west of Rusty. Might become Sandra as it heads southeast. Ryan1000 17:58, February 24, 2013 (UTC)

No longer expected to become Sandra.Allanjeffs 20:49, February 26, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10F
And we have got the tenth disturbance of the 2012-13 South Pacific cyclone season. Tropical Cyclone Haley, anyone? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

It's slightly stronger (the pressure has dropped a bit from 1002 mbar to 1001 mbar). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

I don't expect much out of either this or the other disturbance for the time being. Maybe become Haley, but nothing else. Ryan1000 21:54, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbacne 11F
Yes, we have got yet another one. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

Long dead, as with 10F. Oh and BTW, Oswald could've caused 126 million in AUS damage, so he might not be so negligible after all... Ryan1000 17:14, February 1, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14F
We never mentioned the past 2 depressions (not like they did much anyway), but this one actually looks pretty good. Might become Haley. Ryan1000 16:48, February 9, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Haley
Now Haley. Isaac829 E-Mail  04:02, February 10, 2013 (UTC)

Dying down... Ryan1000 14:33, February 11, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Haley
And out. Ryan1000 14:52, February 12, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
This may be a bit too early, but Evan does have a reasonable chance of retirement. Here are my retirement candidates (remember, SWIO storms are NOT retired):

AUS:


 * 1) Mitchell - 0% - Mitchell was such a short-lived, weak, harmless storm there is pretty much no chance of retirement, even by Australian region standards.
 * 2) Narelle - 5% - Narelle did bring some wave action to Northwest Australia, but I still doubt it will get retired.
 * 3) Oswald - 70% - Oswald did contribute to a major flood event, so there iss a poosible chance of it going.
 * 4) Peta - 1% - A debatable waste of a name, and it did not cause a lot of damage.
 * 5) Rusty - TBA - Still Active

SPAC: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, December 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Evan - 90% - Because the SPac is extremely slacky at retirement standards, Evan is most likely going, especially if it caused over $100 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 2) Freda - 30% - Well, it did affect some SPac islands, but the damage was not too bad.
 * 3) Garry - 10% - It did not turn out to be that bad in the end.
 * 4) Haley - 5% - Haley did not seriously impact land, and the fact it did not reach severe tropical cyclone intensity (AUS scale) does not help its chances.

I normally would discourage making this section so early, but since Evan has a reasonable chance of being retired, I wouldn't be bad with it now. I think he will be retired...The SPac and AUS region have amongst the lowest retirement standards of any basin that retires names. The lowest ever for any place is the EPac, since Mexico rarely retires names and hurricanes rarely hit Hawaii. Ryan1000 14:51, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

He is almost 90% gone in my opinion. they even retire storms that only make 1 million dollar in damage.Allanjeffs 18:32, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine:

AUS: SPAC: Isaac829 E-Mail  23:08, February 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Mitchell - 0% - Fail.
 * Narelle - 40% - It killed 14 people.
 * Oswald - 60% - Tons of damage.
 * Peta - 30% - It caused flooding, that's pretty much it.
 * Evan - 70% - Tons of damage.
 * Freda - 10% - Meh, not much.
 * Garry - 0% - No.
 * Haley - 0% - See Garry.

Mine:

AUS: SPAC: STO12 (talk) 03:29, December 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Mitchell: 0% Mitchell dissipated far from land.....
 * Evan: 80% or more, Evan is most likely being retired...
 * Freda: TBA - Still active

Ryan Grand has spoken:

Australia: South Pacific: Ryan1000 14:25, January 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Mitchell - 0% - Australia may have the most generous track record of retiring names, but even they'd know better than to retire this pathetic storm.
 * Narelle 38% - Fairly powerful and delivered some rain and winds to the northwest Australian coast, but damage wasn't that bad. Indonesia might request retirement from this, but not sure if the precursor damage and deaths there should apply towards retirement.
 * Oswald - 98% - At least 4 people were killed from Oswald and flood damage in Queensland totaled to nearly 2.4 billion AUS dollars. That ranks him behind Tracy and Yasi as Australia's 3rd costliest TC in history. All of those facts sum up to one thing - goodbye Oswald.
 * Peta - 5% - Small and weak storm, brought some minor flooding and washed out a few roads, but still, doubt it...
 * Rusty - ?? - Not looking good for Western Australia, but I refuse to put a number until I see what he does.
 * Evan - 100% - This might seem too generous, but 161 million dollars in damage ranks Evan one of the top 10 costliest South Pacific cyclones on record, and it was described as the worst cyclone in Fiji's history. If they retired countless past storms with near-negligible damage, there's no excuse on Evan.
 * Freda - 15% - A threatening storm, but much less severe than Evan.
 * Garry - 10% - Probrably not.
 * Haley - <10% - Doubt it.

South Pacific


 * Evan 98% I will be stunned if it stays. they retire almost any if not all that affect land and cause little damage there is no excuse for this one to stay. case close

Freda% 5 not affect land

Garry 4% nothing special.

Australia

Mitchelle 10% you never know with Australia.

Narelle 55% Don`t lknow if Indonesia where Narelle kill 19 retire like Australia or are more conservative but if they do these percentage may be too low or too much.

Oswald 80 damage in Australia was extensive so its like a go go to me even though most of it was as a low or remanent anyway he us out.

Allanjeffs 03:31, January 23, 2013 (UTC)