Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season

Welcome
I don't know if anyone will be here for now, but here's a fine start to the Pacific typhoon season! Ryan1000 22:17, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 01W
2 hours ago I was complaining of lack of tropical activity, and well here we are the second storm in 2 hours! Not expected to become much, or go anywhere. Yqt1001 03:26, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

Finally! I was wondering when this basin would start up! This is the latest start in this basin since 2006! Yeah, and it's not likely to do much, but still, nice to have some activity. HurricaneFiona 11:58, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

And ONE is gone now. Yqt1001 19:54, April 4, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 02W (Amang)
7 hours after the last storm dissipated..another one shows up. This storm is worth talking about. Expected to become a tropical storm before dissipating. Yqt1001 02:54, April 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * The WPac isn't supposed to get killer storms at this time of year, and although TD 2 isn't really a threat to land, it could become "Aere" in the next few hours or tomorrow. It is technically 02W in the WPac, like in the EPac, it's 1-E or 2-E, just to avoid the confusion with how the NHC names atlantic depressions... You could also refer to it's PAGASA name for the time being; same as the 2007 list, it is named Amang by them. Ryan1000 20:27, April 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh, and quick update: a frontal system has completly exposed it's circulation, little chance of developing now. Ryan1000 20:29, April 5, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03W
Well, our third WPac depression is onto us; it's currently 03W, and it's named Bebeng by PAGASA. There is a chance it may become Aere, but it's not a signifigant threat to land altogether. It's worth mentioning either way... Ryan1000 17:30, May 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Aere (Bebeng)

 * And now, it's Aere. Probably not going to do much. It does look nice for a TS, though. HurricaneFiona 09:58, May 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not only is it pretty, it's huge! It's pretty much covering all of the Philippines. Yqt1001 14:33, May 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Philipines have gone through lots of bad storms early in the season, but Aere is only expected to hit the Archapelago as a TS and then head northward into Taiwan and possibly Korea and Japan after that. The strongest typhoon to hit the Philipines so early in the season was Super Typhoon Nida in 2004. It brushed by the country as a category 5 storm, and was one of the strongest may typhoons on record. It didn't make landfall, but caused several deaths and severe damage in the country nevertheless. Aere won't even come close to Nida's power, but it's life-threatening either way. Ryan1000 15:57, May 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Probrably lost interest now... Aere hit the Philipines briefly and it's now racing out to sea, never to affect land again. Ryan1000 21:22, May 10, 2011 (UTC)

Eh, before everyone abandons this forum for now, I have one last thing to say: Although Aere may have not hit the Philipines enough to warrant its retirement, PAGASA announced that Bebeng, it's name in their book, will become retired. Ryan1000 20:13, May 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Statistically it killed more people than Tomas and Igor and caused more damage (value) than Igor (Pesos vs. Canadian Dollar). I still don't see how it was a huge event for the Philippines, but it was still worse than Megi of last year. 216.211.43.197 21:25, May 16, 2011 (UTC)

The Philipines have a strange track record for retired names IMO... They requested Typhoon Bess of 1974 to be retired, which killed only 26 and did 9.8 million in damage, but not Typhoon Rita of 1978, which was a caegory 5 storm which killed hundreds and did catastrophic damage in the islands. They can sometimes be unpredictable with retired names, like Mexico. (strangely enough, after the Typhoon Bess of 1974 became retired, it was accidentally re-put on the list in 1979, and then there was another Typhoon Bess in 1982 that also became retired due to it's impact in Japan. That was the only time on record that the same name was retired twice in the same basin. Weird...)

Tropical Depression 04W
New storm out there. The next name is Songda, and it's also threatening the Philipines. It appears the party has officially begun. Ryan1000 20:46, May 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Forecast brings it up to category 3 hurricane strength. Yqt1001 02:58, May 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Songda (Chedeng)
Now named by JMA. I am struck by how far south this thing is! And, a cat 3 threatening the Philippines doesn't sit well with me. HurricaneFiona 19:40, May 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Where is everybody? Until the EPac and Atlantic start up, could we at least pay attention here for some time? A cat. 3 landfall in the Philipines is a rare event so early in the season, and other than Nida, or a couple of other storms which brushed them at this time of year, this thing could be a very bad storm for them, possibly worse than Aere, which hit them just last week. I haven't seen the EPac show signs of producing their first storm yet, due to a la Nina start, but the La Nina will transition into El Nino by August/September, and I'm not entirely sure what that will mean, but the only people that have really been here so far are me, Fiona, and Yqt. Eric? YE? Darren? Astro? Anyone? It's like people only care about Atlantic and EPac storms from what i've seen... Ryan1000 21:50, May 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Models have Songda move away from the Philippines and stay out at sea. They also bring Songda at cat 4 strength in the next five days though. And yes, it is rather sad that most people only care about the EPac and ATL storms, the offseason is rather boring without many people and there have been some notable storms to track so far this year. I don't see why have a hobby (tracking storms) but only do it for a few months of the year when you can easily do it year round! Yqt1001 01:13, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * According to WU, Sondga is foretasted to strike somewhere between the Philippines and Twain. Should be interesting, I hope everyone stays safe. BTW, Darren is retired, I believe. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Well, Darren certainly did make his calls in the betting pools... However, I think that many people care largely about the Atlantic and EPac storms because the media usually pays attention to them more than the WPac/NIO/SHem basin storms. Songda will likely be named Chedeng soon, but it certainly is interesting to watch for the time being. Ryan1000 14:51, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now it's Chedeng. It's certainly starting the party up here... Ryan1000 02:30, May 23, 2011 (UTC)

Typhoon Songda (Chedeng)
Up to category 1 hurricane strength now. Now Typhoon Songda too (first of the year!). Yqt1001 17:11, May 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * And it's getting worse for the Philipines... This could be the first big storm of the NHem season. We should keep our eyes out, and the Philipines could be in for their second biggie in less than two weeks... Or not. It appears it may head nortward past the islands and then go for Japan. Either way, Songda bears watching. Ryan1000 20:48, May 24, 2011 (UTC)

Major Typhoon Songda (Chedeng)
Uh oh. Things are getting worse by the minute... Songda is now the strongest NHem storm thus far in 2011. It's winds have rescently jumped to 120 mph and the pressure has plunged down to 945 milibars. It could easily become super typhoon Songda very soon, and even though the Philipines may get lucky, the Japan coastline needs to watch out. Songda could have winds of up to 100 miles an hour or higher by the time it reaches the southern coast of the country. Watch out, everyone. This thing could be bad! Ryan1000 20:02, May 25, 2011 (UTC)

Catgory 5 Typhoon Songda (Chedeng)

 * 160mph winds now! Reminds me of Nida a lot. Yqt1001 13:26, May 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * One minuets sustained or 10 minute. YE Tropical Cyclone  14:01, May 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG, Cat 5 Super Typhoon... This is unusually strong for this early, even in the Western Pacific. I don't like this one bit. The Philipines may have gotten lucky, but I am still worried about a Japan landfall (like most of the models are predicting). HurricaneFiona 16:22, May 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * In 10 minute winds, it's 120 mph but 1 minute winds are 160, a category 5 storm. It's the first official category 5 in 2011, but unlike most may storms like this one, it could be a serious threat to land. Japan hasn't seen a category 2 or 3 landfall this early since... A very long time ago. Not that it'll be that strong when it hits, but it's not a good thing to see. The last May cat. 5 was Nida of 2004, but Ramansun of 2008 came just short. Damn, this thing's looking really ugly. Ryan1000