Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season/August

August
It's already August according to UTC so, why not start it? I'm expecting more activity during this month. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:13, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico (again)
Yellow crayon is scribbled south of Mexico again. 5 day outlook is 0/30 and this seems much more likely to eventually be Jova than the above AOI. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:28, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * I may have confused the above dead AOI with this one. Hopefully this can become our next major. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:43, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40, is this Jova? 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 17:31, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 0/40, but models have recently trended much weaker. Hopefully they are wrong. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:10, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now to 10/40. 3 years of my tracking... -70.190.5.175 03:31, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invest'd and 20/40. The TWO is now mentioning that upper-level winds might become unfavorable by Friday. Hopefully this won't steal the name "Jova"... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:32, August 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 20/50. Conditions still look conducive enough for Jova to develop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:06, August 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * The 2-day chance was raised to 30%, while the 5-day chance is still 50%. We could get Jova from this, but it's not a certainty. It all depends on if this invest feels like developing or not. :P ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:26, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 30/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:03, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 20/30. I doubt that this one will form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:23, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Meh, there is still a chance that this could rapidly develop last-minute and be a brief TD or even a name-stealing spin-up, but that's not very likely. This has very limited time to get itself together before Friday. It seems to me that the EPac is taking a break. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:57, August 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Guess this won't be a TD after all. Down to 20/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:17, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * It is up to 40/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:22, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * And suddenly it went up. I hope this will form, anyway. May this become a TD though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:19, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now 50/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:47, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * I expect a TD and nothing more. Heck, this might even bust completely. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:57, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 60/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:38, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 80/80. Can be a TD in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:10, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Recently numbered, TD 11-E is not expected to be a TS due to cooler waters. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:06, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * It actually strengthened a bit to 30 knots (35 mph) but I still doubt it will be a TS. If it does, it would be a pathetic name-stealer that is worse than Failicia 2015. Models thankfully don't strengthen it to a TS according to the NHC discussion. I am glad to see it become a TD though. :) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:25, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope this steals the name Jova and is only a TS for six hours. >:) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:31, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would be pissed if this steals the name Jova. I have been waiting for this name since 2011 when it was a major and it has always been used for hurricanes. 181.210.62.178 23:58, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Don't worry, this won't be Jova. NHC expects this to become a remnant low later. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:58, August 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is quickly dying off. The storm that could be Jova, however, make it a very strong storm, but it's 11+ days out. Usually, those are not accurate past 10 days. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:03, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * TD 11-E is forecasted to be a remnant low shortly after. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:07, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E
Downgraded into a remnant low. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:12, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Mexico
A new AOI popped up in EPac. Currently 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:32, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be Jova in the very long run, although the environment might not be particularly supportive. The NHC mentions that any development should be slow to occur. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:58, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * This will probably be Jova, only a very weak one at that. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:47, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:37, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Conditions won't favor any development here, and Jova will have to wait. The EPac is sleeping for now but it should wake up again by mid-month. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:02, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the 2-day TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:16, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's still on the 5-day TWO. Doubt this will form though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:34, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Per Steve's update: this AOI is gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:04, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Remnants of Franklin
It is on 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still 0/30. Franklin's [future] remnants are expected to help this AOI organize (if it really does) this weekend. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I noticed these are completely different systems (compare: 1 and 2, which is just one outlook apart). Can a disturbance really move northward that quickly? Anyway, this seems to have a pretty decent chance of (re)development in the long run. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:01, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * And it's now 10/30. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:18, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Increased to 20/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:30, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * 50/50. I not sure if it is Jova (likely going to form). Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:50, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now increased to 70/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:21, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * 90/90. This has a high chance to become Jova. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:08, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hello, or should I say, "Hei" in my native tongue. I'm a girl from Lillestrøm, Norway that has just come to make a point about this new storm. To be honest, I wanted to see a Hurricane Jova as it is a gender-neutral name (as that Dutch boy pointed out a couple of weeks ago) and it would be nice that a storm name without an assumed/obvious gender would have a strong hurricane status. People would have come on Twitter and pointed it out. But it won't happen as he/she won't be anything stronger than a weak tropical storm, based on models. Models are instead hinting at a strong Kenneth. I mean, KENNETH? Nobody would be interested in a storm named KENNETH as it is a basic and boring name! I am disgusted by this. Here is what I found on the interwebz regarding the low:

"Since Franklin did not survive the crossing of Mexico as an identifiable tropical cyclone, the new storm would get a new Eastern Pacific name. The next named storm in the list is Jova. By early next week, any potential Tropical Storm Jova will encounter a less conducive atmosphere for development, and it is unlikely that we will see a Hurricane Jova." Seriously? I am really annoyed that we have a name-stealer. Franklin, WE DON'T NEED YOU TO HAVE A NEW IDENTITY. YOU SHOULD HAVE KEPT YOUR NAME RATHER THAN CHANGING IT. ALSO I BLAME THE DRY AIR AND STRONG UPPER WINDS. I DON'T WANT A WEAK JOVA. Super pissed off. Who is with me? 169.51.72.247 00:18, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Kind of agree with you 169.51. Remember Earl and Javier from last year? Earl's remnants formed into Javier in the East Pacific. Javier (65 mph/997 mbar) is weaker than Earl (85 mph/979 mbar). I want Javier much stronger like it was in 2004. But instead, it was kinda weak. I don't want this to happen again. I would suggest it would be a TD only. Or else, this would be a very bad name-stealer and even much worse than Failicia. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:01, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jova
GREAT. JOVA HAS FORMED. Expected to be very short lived and peak as a minimal tropical storm. FRANKLIN, WHAT THE HELL HAVE YOU DONE? WE DON'T NEED YOU HERE ANYMORE! NO USE USING A NEW IDENTITY TO EXPLORE THE PACIFIC! JEEZ NOW WE HAVE A NAME-STEALER. I WANTED TO SEE A GENDERFLUID HURRICANE!!!!! >:(!!!

THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON HAS FORMED... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND TONIGHT...

JESUS FUCKING CHRIST WE DON'T NEED ANOTHER FAIL SYSTEM!! ESPECIALLY WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE WITH AN AWESOME NON-BINARY NAME THAT PEOPLE WOULD HAVE GONE HEAD OVER HEELS FOR ON TUMBLR AND TWITTER! WTF!! (Girl from Norway who posted that angry note above) 169.51.72.247 03:21, August 12, 2017 (UTC) DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK -- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 109.8 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and is forecast to turn toward the west by late Saturday and enter forbidden territory. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova would probably never intensify, to be honest. Jova will start to weaken within 2 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS -- Sobbing SJWs on Tumblr that the non-binary storm would never be a hurricane. Expect to see severe flooding of up to 298000 feet. 169.51.72.247 03:25, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Didn't expect this to instantly become Jova and skip the TD phase. Anyway, Jova is expected to last until Monday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:58, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh great. Just great. Jova is already a failure already. I mean, it'll be a weak fishspinner that is Failicia. What have you done Franklin? Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:02, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * I expected a TD, not Jova for the first advisory. Anyways, conditions might be favorable enough for strengthening before Sunday. If it doesn't strengthen significantly I might have to write this off as a pathetic name-waste. At least we finally got a new named storm after 3 weeks without anything forming (except for the short-lived TD early this month). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:54, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * YES!!! I was hoping that the name Jova would be stolen. >:D (Jova is my least favorite name on the lists. Jova is still at 40 mph, and it could just peak there. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:33, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll be honest, I agree with you TG. Aside from Greg, Jova is one of the names which I am not a fan [of]. (My favorites in this list are Irwin, Lidia & Max; in the other lists, my favorites are Boris, Priscilla, Lane, Wallis, Vance and Guillermo.) Jova is now approaching Socorro Island as NHC expects it to peak at 40 kts (45 mph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:44, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I actually kinda like the name Jova simply because of the fact that it is a genderfluid name (although the NHC identifies it as female). However, it's totally not my favorite name. Looks like we have a pathetic fail here. :/ Kenneth should be a better storm. ~  Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:08, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jova looks like she's becoming post-tropical. Jova could dissipate tonight if this continues. T  G  2 0 1 7 19:03, August 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Jova
You gotta be kidding me. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:53, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is the first EPac storm that bore the name Jova to not become a hurricane. My favorite names from the EPac are Guillermo, Blas, Kenneth, Emilia, Tico, and Winnie. While my least favorite names are Jova, Douglas, Gil, John, Javier, and Terry. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:06, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I was just going to point that out too! My favourites have got to be Fernanda (so glad that was a C4 storm), Lidia, Aletta (great to hear a Dutch name this time instead of Spanish and English names all the time), Emilia, Carlotta (I love Italian names), Illeana, Kristy (sounds cute), Tara (reminds me of a K-pop band), Xavier, Zelda, Cosme, Dalila, Flossie, Juliette, Priscilla, Lorena, Amanda, Elida, Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Karina, Odalys, Enrique, Felicia, Ignacio, Jimena, Rick (I will make a petition for a hurricane to be called "Roll"), Estelle, Celia and Seymour. Wish I can have a hurricane named after me, though.
 * My least favourites? Well, the names that are fit for old ladies and gentlemen. Winifred? Velma? Wallis? Yuck. John sounds boring, and I don't like Javier for some reason. Xavier is better.
 * Based on my tastes, what do you think I seem to like? (TG, I think you are one for edgy but oldish sounding names. You seem not to like plain names, or names that are just downright weird.)
 * ANYWAY LOL, this storm was a failure. NICE TRY FRANKLIN, you went undercover as an EPAC storm. NOW GET OUT! WE ARE NOT FOOLED!
 * (Yes, I was that Norwegian girl who posted yesterday. You can refer to me as Henriette, my real name.) 169.51.72.247 00:28, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jeez. I bet this storm will dissipate in a few hours. I'd rather listen to a terrible, out of tune Nicki Minaj song on loop for 10 days rather than sit through tracking this storm. 169.51.72.247 00:42, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * The intensity is 35 mph/1005 mbar. Also, it is a failure. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:02, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, what a miserable failure this is. Jova is like, as pathetic as Failicia. It should dissipate tomorrow due to increasingly hostile environmental conditions. Bye, disgrace to TCs! It's hilarious how Jova epically failed in front of the Wiki audience. 🤣 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:38, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jova is dead. Look at this: Jova doesn't even look tropical anymore. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:22, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Failicia 2.0 (Jova) is going to be a remnant low later today. This storm is pathetic. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:39, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Current advisory keeps it tropical, at 30 mph/1006 mbars. It should be a remnant low by the 8 PM PDT advisory. What a terrible fail this was. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:59, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova
Now downgraded into a remnant low. Bye, bye failure! Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:43, August 14, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Here we go again. Another one just appeared only on the 5 day TWO with a 0/20 chance of formation. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/40. The (slow?) race for Jova is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:29, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be Jova or Kenneth in the long run, depending on whether the remnants of Franklin develops first. Or that other AOI might be like Otto from last year and keep its name, depending on what the NHC thinks of it (I don't know if the "low pressure" that could develop within the remnants of Franklin is separate or is going to be a real part of the remnants). The EPac seems to be heating up again! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:07, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still 0/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:31, August 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * And it's still 0/40. It's taking its time to intensify I think. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:56, August 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Looks like it will be goddamn KENNETH now. -yawn- (Girl from Norway that posted earlier) 169.51.72.247 00:19, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/70 per latest TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:43, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * And Kenneth is most likely coming from this early next week. The EPac is heating up again after little activity from late July through the early part of this month. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:56, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/70, although conditions remain favorable for the development of Kenneth by the middle of next week. I hope it is an epic major! :) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down again to 10/60. It's taking its time to develop... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:18, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Come on Ken! Let's see you soon!! :D And please be a major! (I am Henriette who posted earlier) 169.51.72.247 00:29, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * I lost track of this. I am now confused. I don't know if this is the one downgraded to 10/40 or the other AOI near it. Oh well, the second AOI became 0/30, which means that this is going to be a longer waiting game than what we thought. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:42, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:52, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Jova
0/20. The EPac is becoming active again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:11, August 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/30. Proximity to a disturbance to the east (I think the 10/60 system?) could limit development until this moves westward away from it. We could be up to Lidia by the end of next week, if not sooner. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:20, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:01, August 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Long gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wait.. I think it's it's not. It is at 20/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:00, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 40/60. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * This literally disappeared from the TWO yesterday. I wonder what happened... anyway I hope Kenneth comes out of this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:37, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested. 70/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:55, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * 90/90. TD 13-E should be coming (I feeling this is going to be unlucky). Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
Expected to become a TS later. Forecast to become a hurricane later next week. Will become a fishspinner though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:59, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * After seeing this wave going off the TWO a couple days ago, this came as a complete surprise to me. :O And this should also become a modest hurricane. It seems like the environment improved a lot for this wave (now TD)... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:11, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * It is forecasted to become Kenneth later tonight and become a hurricane by Sunday. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:24, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on!! Sadly he'll only be a Cat 1 :( HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 03:01, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kenneth
Ken's here. Owen 03:03, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

We need another storm named Barbara or Barbie right now. (Anyway, sadly only gonna be a Cat 1) HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 03:07, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hello, Kenneth. :) I swear, it has been a very active season here. For comparison, 2011 ended at this name, and this year we are at this name in the middle of August! This should not match the intensity of its predecessor though. Since NHC forecasts are often conservative, and this has 3 days of favorable conditions, I won't be surprised if this edition of Kenneth squeaks in C2 intensity. A major looks unlikely, but it's still not 100% out of the question. And Henriette, Barbara will return in 2019 so you will have to wait two years. Your own name will also be used in 2019! Names rotate every six years, and those two names were last used in 2013. Sounds exciting, huh? :D ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:25, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hi Kenneth! Anyway, the intensity is at 35 kn/1005 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:41, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * This won't affect land, so it'd be nice if it got to cat 2 or 3 intensity, but it doesn't have much time to become a strong hurricane, though I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane at all. Gotta love how the NHC initially expected this to be a fail and now we'll have a hurricane on our dorrsteps. Ryan1000 10:39, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 40 knots (45 mph)/1003 mbars. NHC notes that this could be conservative, as Dvorak-T numbers are around 45 knots from various agencies. It's forecast to be only a weak hurricane but I feel it could get somewhat stronger than that. I highly doubt it will be a major, but I think a C2 is an outside possibility. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:43, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, Kenneth has come together quite quickly in the past several hours! A beautiful CDO is now apparent on visible imagery, although the NHC discussion notes that there still is some shear affecting the storm. Based on latest Dvorak estimates, Kenneth's intensity is now 55 knots (65 mph), with a pressure of 997 mbar (hPa). Already stronger than Jova, the NHC prognosticates Kenneth to move gradually to the NW under the influence of a mid-level ridge to its north. Intensitywise, they now predict that this storm to become a hurricane in as soon as 12 hours, but given the latest intensification trends, I won't be surprised if we see an upgrade in the next advisory. Also, the NHC has raised their forecast winds for Kenneth up to 80 knots (90 mph), but Category 2 status is definitely within reach. Due to shear increasing and SSTs decreasing in a couple of days, though, anything stronger is likely out of the question. Steve, we're actually progressing at a similar pace as last year (excluding Pali); Kay also formed on August 19. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:45, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I completely forgot about the Pacific, I've been so busy focusing on the Atlantic. Kenneth will likely be a hurricane within the next few hours. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 22:37, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Kenneth
Kenneth is now a hurricane, 75 mph/990 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:06, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Glad Kenneth got here. NHC forecasts an 85 mph peak but I have hope he can squeeze in even more strength. It could even become a C2. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:29, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Starting to look rather nice now, 90 mph, and forecast to peak at 110 mph. Kiewii 20:53, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Did not expect this much strengthening for this advisory! A major looks very, very possible now. And pressure is 980 mb. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:57, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * This has to become the third major hurricane of the season. The eastern Pacific basin hasn't had one since July. What would be really cool is if this storm skips category two and moves directly to category three. Most likely not happening, but, maybe it can. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 23:03, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Kenneth
IbAHAn, Kenneth just did exactly what you doubted that it would do. This hurricane has gone through an incredible round of rapid intensification; winds have increased 35 knots (40 mph) in the past 12 hours alone. Not only did Kenneth explode from a Category 1 to a Category 3 hurricane, but has also exceeded both Hilary and Eugene's peak intensities to become the second-strongest hurricane of the season thus far. As a matter of fact, the NHC noted in their latest discussion that the 100 knot (115 mph)/964 mbar (hPa) value they are estimating could be conservative. Regardless, Kenneth has only another day or so before meeting cooler SSTs and drier air as it moves generally to the NW. Moreover, given that shear is forecast to increase as well in a few days, we may be bidding farewell to this little beast soon. However, I hope Kenneth can intensify slightly further, if not attain Category 4 status. Even if it fails to do so, this recent upgrade means that all four incarnations of Kenneth have reached at least Category 3 intensity. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:07, August 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * He did it. He's now at a Category 3. Hi!- 68.106.0.77 04:00, August 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * And there we have it... Category 4. 115 kts/952 mbar. How can one name be so lucky?? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 08:48, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * To add to that Andrew, Kenneth's all four incarnations have been Category 4 hurricanes. I don't think any name on the naming list has accomplished that feat. Owen 08:51, August 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Somehow, I knew Kenneth would do that. Now it's a category 4 with 130 mph winds. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:49, August 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Kenneth appears to have peaked and is probably beginning to weaken, with convection warming over the past couple of hours. I wouldn't be surprised if the next advisory brought its intensity down to strong C3. Separately, five out of seven incarnations of Jimena have been C4s (the other two are 1979's low-latitude TS and 2003's triple basin crosser); this is probably the record for most C4s or majors even sharing the same name. Kenneth's 100% C4/major record is still unbeatable though (excluding those with names only used once like Amanda 2014 or Ramon 1987). ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:39, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Daniel (which is up for next year) is also a fairly lucky EPac name intensity-wise, as all but two of his incarnations (1988 and 1994) have been major hurricanes, though only his 2006 incarnation was a cat 4. Still, I'm impressed Kenneth managed to pull this off, there hasn't been another EPac storm name to get this perfect intensity streak with this many uses. Ryan1000 13:49, August 21, 2017 (UTC)

Um, now THAT surprised me. Cannot believe it just RI'd to a C4 beast earlier. What a very lucky name. :O Kenneth is now weakening and is 120 mph/960 mb according to latest advisory. Cooling ocean, stable air and southerly shear should seal Kenny's fate during the next few days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:28, August 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm glad it RI into a Cat. 4. Well, that's a lucky name. All of its usage has only been used for Category 4s. Same with Darby (which had been used last year). It has been used for only Category 3s since 1992 (not since its first usage though). Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:11, August 22, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Kenneth (2nd time)
Back to C2. This is one of the biggest surprises of the season. Glad it reached C4 a few days ago. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:59, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to a cat 2 now, 105 mph and 969 mbars. Ryan1000 04:14, August 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to C1, 80 kt / 978 mb. Shouldn't last longer than a couple more days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, August 22, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kenneth (2nd time)
Downgraded. Now a tropical storm. Also, I've been so busy, and got distracted by the eclipse, that I haven't checked the EPAC. So I completely missed a Hurricane Kenneth becoming a cat. 4 yet again. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 20:54, August 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * I didn't have eclipse glasses, so I just watched it on TV. :P Back on topic, Kenneth is almost gone and intensity is 70 mph/990 mbars. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:16, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's off topic but I was in school when the eclipse happened. I wore a eclipse glasses given by one of my teachers and saw the moon(?). Anyways, we should stop discussing about the solar eclipse. Kenneth should dissipate in a couple of days. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:39, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * GRRRRRRRRR why do you have to go too soon Ken -_- WE WILL ALL MISS YOU YOU ARE A LEGEND OF THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG WITH JIMENA shame we have to wait for ages for these two to come again         -groan- blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 12:02, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * And it's forecasted to dissipate tonight. In case it dissipates, goodbye Kenneth! Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:38, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Per latest NHC advisory, Kenneth will likely become post-tropical soon. Currently 40 mph, 1006 mb. Such a great storm, tbh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:49, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Almost dead. Kenneth was a great storm to look at and track. Also can't believe Raraah is back. Missed her so much... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:33, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth
And now, Kenneth is dead. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 23:26, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

I'd like to mention how great Kenneth's remnants still look (http://imgur.com/a/MuEQ0). It still looks tropical, even! While Harvey is being very scary in the Gulf of Mexico, this basin is dead again. No new AOIs and I don't even know when something new will pop up. Wake up soon, sleepyhead EPac :P ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:17, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

WAKEY WAKEY EPAC I'll throw a giant bucket of scathing water on ya if you don't wake up! GIVE ME MY LYDIA HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 22:50, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
This one's at a 0/10 chance. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Already off the TWO and the other AOIs are also at 0/10 chance. This basin is sleeping again. A bit odd that the overall environment does not seem particularly supportive in August in the EPac. At this rate (unless we are lucky), Kenneth might not even come at all until at least the end of the month. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:00, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Gone from the TWO. Inactive month, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
A new 30/50 system is just west of 140W, and has already been invested along with the below system. I think there is a pretty decent chance of Walaka coming from this. Last name before the lists reset! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:41, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 40/60. I won't be surprised if this is Walaka. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:14, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 60/80. This is almost certain to become a TD. Hopefully it will be Walaka soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Scratch what I said above. This is down to 50/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:53, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * It still has a chance though. If it quickly develops during the next couple days, Walaka is possible (although it won't be more than a TS). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:09, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now it redeemed itself by going up to 70/80. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:30, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Good for this invest. I hope it forms quickly and become a fantastic fishspinner. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:39, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 50/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:48, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 30/40. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:56, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * And this has suddenly flopped. The downfall of this system. Maybe this won't develop. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:08, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 30/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:33, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * What a flop this is. Sigh, I wanted to see Walaka from this invest. (Although it would have been a failure, anyway) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:14, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wait, maybe this is 91C? I'm not sure, but Tropical Tidbits only lists 91C as the only existing invest in CPac right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:00, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hmm, but I was pretty sure I got the invests correct when I first posted about them. This actually does look west like the 91C I posted about did (as opposed to near the dateline). We'll have to figure out when 90C died out and 91C came back and what posts in this section began to mention the actual 91C. On the Tropical Weather Discussion, the NHC shows what appears to be a surface trough at the same position as the former 90C. Earlier today it was showing as a dissipating low pressure area. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Steve and Anonymous 2.0, Invests 90C and 91C merged together into one system. The 1800 UTC TWO from the CPHC on August 15 shows two distinct areas of interest, but the subsequent 0000 UTC outlook only shows the resultant merger system. That being said, what is the system currently on the CPHC TWO classified as? The NRL homepage does not indicate any active invests. Regardless, the current AOI only has a 10% chance of formation for both the next 48 hours and five days. Degrading environmental conditions should impede any significant development. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:52, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, that's why. Problem solved. Anyway it is at 0/0, not developing at all. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:52, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 07:58, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Thank you for the clarification, Andrew. Anyway, Walaka might wait a little longer. This invest is gone for good. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:32, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
Development appears less likely than the above due to proximity, but it is 20/20 on the CPac TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:41, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off the CPAC TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:51, August 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wait, I think this is 90C, not 91C. Tropical Tidbits still has 91C, but not 90C. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:00, August 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Invests 90C and 91C merged together. See my comment in the former's section for more information. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:54, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Baja California
0/40. This was 0/30 yesterday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:47, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/60. Lidia is very possible next week. Maybe the EPac saw my post in Kenneth's post-tropical cyclone section and decided to produce something new. :P ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:08, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Currently 0/70. Finally EPac is alive again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:16, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 0/80. This is the first time I've seen an AOI being given that percentage (though I think it had happened in the past). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:44, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80% for 5 days out is impressive, especially since the NHC hasn't pinned down anything on the 2-day outlook yet. Even Patricia 2015 didn't get this. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:02, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally a yellow "x" on the 2-day outlook - 20%. Still 80% for 5 days. Here comes Lidia :D. Hope it is a major but as it is moving northward, I hope weakens before reaching Mexico. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:44, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Jumped to 50/80, and has been invested. This may not consolidate that quickly though due to its proximity to SW Mexico. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:50, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Note that the NHC did state that the "Potential Tropical Cyclone" rule will also apply to the EPac basin prior to the start of the season. However, so far it hasn't been used in the EPac, since we already had some storms in the EPac affecting land. I wonder if that was a mistake by the NHC. The chances have now been raised to 60/90 and it still hasn't been designated as at PTC. Perhaps 70% within 48 hours is the minimum required to be designated as a PTC. If designated as a PTC, it would be Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E. Andros 1337 (talk) 18:30, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * That appears to be the case; I just checked through all of the previously designated Potential Tropical Cyclones and all of them had at least a 70% formation chance for the next 48 hours when first designated. That being said, Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten currently has a 60% tropical cyclogenesis probability in that timeframe. Regarding Invest 94E, it has come together extremely quickly and apparently still has enough time to develop even further. Regardless, per the latest NHC TWO, portions of Mexico should prepare to receive copious precipitation, particularly southwestern Mexico and Baja California. Chances of formation are now 70% for the next 48 hours and 90% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:16, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's 70/90 (like Andy said), but no PTC designation. Maybe it will be designated when it reaches 80/90. Anyway, a TD is highly likely from this, and future "Lidia" could be one to watch for impacts in southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:29, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Invest 94E is becoming increasingly more organized, and given the threat it is posing to Mexico, I will be surprised if the NHC does not start issuing potential tropical cyclone (PTC) advisories within the next day or so. Regardless, chances of formation are now 80% for the next 48 hours and 90% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:49, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E
And for the first time, NHC is issuing advisories on a PTC in the EPac. Near 100% and should become Lidia soon. Ryan1000 21:11, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Tropical storm warnings and hurricane watches have been issued for portions of Mexican coast due to the threat of gale-force winds and precipitation of up to 20 inches. Due to how big Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E is, the NHC is only forecasting peak winds of 60 knots (70 mph) despite decreasing shear and increasing SSTs, although the uncertainty is greater than normal due to the fact that a disturbance is being warned upon. Motionwise, a couple of ridges should steer Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E first to the northwest and then north-northwest away from Mexico. Get ready for another tropical storm! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * The first time that a Potential Tropical Cyclone is on the East Pacific, PTC 14E will become a TS on Wednesday. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:45, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Scratch what I said above, this will become a TS on Thursday. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:39, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * The circulation remains quite broad, with the deepest convection occurring in a blob well north of the center. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:46, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still not a TS but should become one later today. Potential-Lidia is going to threaten Baja and they should prepare. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:36, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lidia should be coming later tonight. Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:34, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lidia
And there we have it. 35 kts/1001 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:38, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * The storm's size seems very large on satellite and it appears that it could be a flooding disaster for the parts of mainland Mexico closest to Lidia, and of course, Baja. I honestly hope it doesn't end up too bad, though. A hurricane is very possible if Lidia quickly intensifies before reaching Baja. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:12, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * It has intensified to 65 mph/991 mbar, and since it is so close to Baja landfall, I doubt a hurricane will occur. But I think there is still a low chance at hurricane strength for the next advisory. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:56, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lidia producing winds and rain to Baja California. Expect to make landfall on Baja. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:21, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

And raging floods are now occurring in southern Baja. I hope this doesn't turn out to be their own (little?) version of Harvey... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:38, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lidia made landfall on Baja California Sur. Expect to turn Northwest and dissipate. I live just SSE of Lidia and I don't think I could get impacted by the storm. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:32, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lidia is now over northern Baja California Sur. Should dissipate in 24 hrs. Nobody paying much attention here....--182.58.64.140 16:10, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey and Irma could be the reason why. Baja could have seen quite a bit of flooding, and I hope it wasn't too bad. Moisture from Lidia could also impact me during the next few days (I'm in SoCal). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:07, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lidia
Dead. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:06, September 3, 2017 (UTC)