Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:over CA
New wave about to enter the EPAC. YE Tropical Cyclone  15:21, July 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now it´s up to 20%. This thing has a chance of becoming Eugene as it heads WNW, but it likely won't affect land. Let´s hope it becomes our 5th hurricane though, we're really getting a lot of hurricanes here. Ryan1000 12:48, July 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * We could see Eugene this weekend. YE Tropical Cyclone  15:17, July 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Also, if 95E becomes a hurricane, we would be the first season since 1966 to have the first five tropical storms become hurricanes. This invest could get quite unique in the next week. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 01:33, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:41, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%. Maybe Eugene will have to wait after all. 1966 had the first 6 storms become hurricanes, but we might have missed a few storms back then, so if you only count since 1971, then this year ties 1971 itself for the record. The record in question for number of consecutive hurricanes in EPac is apparently held by an 8 hurricane streak in 1992, not since the start, but we had hurricanes Orlene, Iniki, Paine, Roslyn, Seymour, Tina, Virgil, and Winifred all in a row. I don't think we'll get 8 consecutive hurricanes this year, but it's not out of the question. We'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 13:40, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back up to 10%, not out of the woods yet. Ryan1000 22:59, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%. Maybe Eugene will have to wait after all. 1966 had the first 6 storms become hurricanes, but we might have missed a few storms back then, so if you only count since 1971, then this year ties 1971 itself for the record. The record in question for number of consecutive hurricanes in EPac is apparently held by an 8 hurricane streak in 1992, not since the start, but we had hurricanes Orlene, Iniki, Paine, Roslyn, Seymour, Tina, Virgil, and Winifred all in a row. I don't think we'll get 8 consecutive hurricanes this year, but it's not out of the question. We'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 13:40, July 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back up to 10%, not out of the woods yet. Ryan1000 22:59, July 29, 2011 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
It's now invested and up to 40%. It's looking very well organized, and we have a pretty good chance of seeing possibly yet another hurricane out of Eugene. Let's watch this one too, because if it does become hurricane Eugene, we have the first 5 storms be hurricanes, just one behind 1966's record. Ryan1000 21:32, July 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 70%!YE Tropical Cyclone  01:36, July 31, 2011 (UTC)

At 70% now. Could be a tropical cyclone by August 1st. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 00:04, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * August 1st? Why not tomorrow? YE Tropical Cyclone  01:36, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Later today you mean. We have to see Eugene from this wave. Given the conditions ahead of it, on top of it's well-defined structure, I can also see yet another hurricane coming from this. This year is far above the long term average for number of hurricanes, but not so much named storms. Ryan1000 02:10, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Later today you mean. We have to see Eugene from this wave. Given the conditions ahead of it, on top of it's well-defined structure, I can also see yet another hurricane coming from this. This year is far above the long term average for number of hurricanes, but not so much named storms. Ryan1000 02:10, July 31, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E

 * The fifth tropical depression of the 2011 PHS has formed! Looks like this could very well be TS Eugene in a few hours. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 12:48, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Forecasted to become ANOTHER hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:09, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Estern Pacific will be having a hurricane party. OWEN2011 14:21, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow, this is the first season since 1966 to have the first 5 storms become hurricanes, assuming Eugene will become one. At the rate we are going we'd be better with all of the seasons storms be hurricanes for god's sake... Oh well. It's worth watching. Updated the Active storms header. Ryan1000 14:51, July 31, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Eugene
And here it is. Still forecast to become a hurricane as it heads out to sea. At least it's worth mentioning... Ryan1000 15:22, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay!!!!!!!!!!! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:07, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * For the record, if this storm becomes a hurricane by August 2nd(or 3rd), it will be the earliest date for the season's 5th hurricane since 1992! Are you kidding me? That's incredible! 1994 sure had a ton of hurricanes, and some really strong ones, but lleana, that year's 5th hurricane, or Li, which did on the same day, didn't become the season's 5th hurricane until August 12th. 1993 didn't get their 5th 'cane(Keoni) until August 14. 1992 got Frank by July 15. No other season since 1995 has had their 5th hurricane before that. 1966 had the first 6 storms become hurricanes, but because there were no July storms that year, the 5th of those(Eileen) didn't become a hurricane until August 26. The EPac is already setting some pretty cool records. Ryan1000 16:55, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eugene sure is causing 2011 to set so many records. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:16, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the NHC is underestimating Eugene right now. They say 40 knots when Eugene looks like a 45 knot tropical storm. Either way, I think there's potential for a cat 2/3 (especially if Eugene keeps south for longer than expected). Suprise11 03:34, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's now up to 60 mph, but it's still organizing and it should become at LEAST a category 1 storm. The latest NHC forecast takes it only to 80 mph. That's underexaggerating IMO. Ryan1000 13:31, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 65 mph, and the forecast now takes it to high-end Cat 1 strength. --HurricaneMaker99 15:09, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * probable a hurricane now
 * probable a hurricane now
 * probable a hurricane now

Yeah, i'd be surprised if it isn't upgraded to one soon, it's really getting it's act together as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 19:44, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Eugene
It's a 'cane! 65 kts, 990 mbar per the latest NHC advisory. Forecast peak upped to Cat 2. --HurricaneMaker99 20:35, August 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * When Adrian was at similar strength it was forecast to peak as a strong category 2. Dora was forecast to be a solid category 3. Who knows where Eugene will go. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:20, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Man... it's not even August 10th, and we've had five canes. This is the first time since 1966 that the first five tropical storms became hurricanes, and the first time since 1992 that a season's fifth hurricane formed this early. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 21:02, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay! Five for five. Forecast peak for me is 105 knt. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:44, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane party! 5th of the season, but it likely won't affect land. It could be a cat. 3 briefly, but it won't affect land. Oh well. Great to see it intensify, first time in 45 years with the first 5 storms become hurricanes. Ryan1000 00:04, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh well? You want it to affect land? But anyway, Eugene looks great right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:42, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * The new advisory just said: ...EUGENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... What? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:58, August 2, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Tehuantepec
Has not been invested, but an area of disturbed weather has formed. NHC has 10% on it. Let's keep watch on this system, may be our Fernanda. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:49, August 2, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions?

Mine:


 * Adrian - 1% No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements.


 * Beatriz - 10% Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired.


 * Calvin - 1% Was indeed an interesting storm.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are mine:
 * Adrian - 2% I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat.
 * Beatriz - 7% Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her.
 * Calvin - 0% He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end.
 * Dora - 3% See Adrian's section.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Calvin - 0% He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end.
 * Dora - 3% See Adrian's section.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine (Until Calvin) <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no.
 * Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired?
 * Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P


 * A bit early but here are mine:
 * Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said
 * Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, but Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore
 * Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it.
 * Yqt1001 13:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine:
 * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact
 * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy
 * Calvin 0%

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Adrian-0%, Beatriz-10%, Calvin-0%, Dora-5%. OWEN2011 16:11, July 22, 2011 (UTC)

Mid-season forecasts
What are you guy mid-season forecasts. Mines is 14-9-4. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone


 * I am expecting a near-normal season here, if not slightly below normal, and I am calling for, say 14-16 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors, but no category 5's. Until Calvin dissipates, I guess the next thing to watch is 08W in the WPac, which is currently Goring by PAGASA and could become future Ma-on. Ryan1000 19:24, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna go to the lower end of all y'all's forecasts and go for 12 NS, 7 H, 3 MH and also no C5's (EPAC only, I hate forecasting CPAC). Apparently, this is close to the CPC forecast of a median of 12 NS, 6.5 H and 2 MH. Here's my monthly forecast:

<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:18, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jun: 2TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Jul: 3TS, 1H, 0MH
 * Aug: 3TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Sep: 3TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Oct: 1TS, 0H, 0MH
 * Nov: 0TS, 0H, 0MH
 * Dec: Heck no

HurricaneSpin's

Atlantic: 16-13-8-5-1 (Maria) ACE=108

Pacific: 18-14-7-3-0 (Norma) ACE=101

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Oh yeah, ATL. I'm going with 16 (±3) NS, 8(±2) H, 5(±1) MH, ≥0 C5, or above normal with an ACE of 110-195, or (assuming median ACE is 87.5) 125-222% above normal mean because conditions are still very favorable for significant development in the season. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * My predictions:
 * Atlantic: 16-8-4-2
 * Pacific: 14-7-3-0
 * Yqt1001 21:49, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the Atlantic will have 14-9-5. IMO, the pacific is more tricky since we already have had the first three storms become hurricanes and 1 major. I would go with 11-12 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-5 majors (I wouldn't be suprised if the season ends up like 2010 and has no majors through peak of season.)
 * ACE for the Atlantic should be around 150. The Pacific ACE should be between 50-80. Suprise11 22:53, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2010? Why is 2010 being discussed? Do you realize that the 2010 PHS an anomaly? The environment is much more favorable than 2010. In fact, if this seaosn shuts down later this month, and pulls a 2010/1977, I will be shocked. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * While 2010 was anomaly (Number of June storms, June C5, lack of activity afterward), because we are in the inactive Pacific era, a repeat will not be surprising, but it is not really expected. And YE, an interment is a burial :P <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:11, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It will be surprising, because a 2010 type season has occurred only twice in the past 44 years. So the odds of an 2010 type season is 1/22.YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:29, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant 2010 in terms of the possibility of no majors through peak of season. For example, despite 2003's high number of named storms, there were no majors. Suprise11 23:36, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given the fact that we already have three major and one cane, it is unlikely that we will have no majors in the season. Most years have a Baja storm that becomes an MH if not an MH fish storm. In fact, I could only find two seasons since 1977 with no MH's during the peak (2003 and 2010). Odds=1/12. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:43, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). Ryan1000 01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well... my predictions are on the worldwide discusssion page, but here are my E. Pac and C.Pac mid- season forecasts. And for the E.Pac, we've seen 3-3-1 already, but anywho:
 * E.Pac:
 * 14-7-2-0 (get down to Max + one Atlantic crossover) ACE= ~105 Net TC activity: 101%
 * C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded):
 * (2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20
 * I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana.
 * For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded):
 * (2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20
 * I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana.
 * For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC)