Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season

Welcome
I don't know if anyone will be here for now, but here's a fine start to the Pacific typhoon season! Ryan1000 22:17, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok
It just jumped onto us unexpectedly now, forecast to become a typhoon as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 21:46, August 3, 2011 (UTC)

I hope it isn't bad. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 23:04, August 5, 2011 (UTC)

Typhoon Merbok
Now it's unexpectedly a typhoon. :P Yqt1001 12:15, August 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * We do not need a week one header! It makes things a bit confusing, especially if it heads across week one and two. And I knew Merbok would become a typhoon; it was never unexpected, but at least it is heading out to sea. Ryan1000 14:39, August 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Forecasts never showed a typhoon for me, I guess the first forecast was the most correct. Yqt1001 13:06, August 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Merbok
Hmm..it's expected to remain tropical to the Aleutian Islands. (I doubt that though) O_O Yqt1001 11:43, August 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Is that possible? Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 21:32, August 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Faith did something like it in the Atlantic (nearly made landfall in Norway), but Merbok is no longer expected to make it to Aleutian Islands. Yqt1001 23:54, August 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 19:02, August 9, 2011 (UTC)

13W:NONAME
It is out there, but I know nothing about it. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 13:29, August 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's a blob of thunderstorms currently south of Japan, but it's moving into colder waters and I wouldn't be surprised if it dies out soon. Ryan1000 14:26, August 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Died. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:43, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Died. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:43, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Out there. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 13:29, August 9, 2011 (UTC)

Has died. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:35, August 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14
After a period of silence in WPac comes 14W. It's currently northwest of Guam and somewhat disorganized, but it does indeed have a chance of becoming Nanmadol over the next couple of days. Ryan1000 02:47, August 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ay, I was mistaken again. It was only 14, not 14W. Anyways, it's gone now. Ryan1000 03:35, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15 (Mina)
And this one also formed. However, this storm is very disorganized and I wouldn't be surprised if (Mina) dies out soon. Ryan1000 02:47, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

Man, the WPAC is now so dead (and this forum) after their May- July streak. Either way, "Mina" won't be doing anything bad by the looks. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:17, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

It's just about dead, but Irene's gonna be making the headline news here as it heads towards NC over the next several days. Ryan1000 03:35, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Its not dead Allanjeffs 17:51, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Now its tropical storm 14W Allanjeffs 19:36, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nanmadol (Mina)
Allanjeffs was right! It is TS Nanmadol! (the name Nanmadol was submitted by Micronesia, and is the name of a famous Pomphei ruin ("The Venice of The Pacific")). Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:37, August 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Whoa, I didn't see that one coming... Anyhow, it's heading north, out to sea, and it could become a typhoon on the way. It won't be as watched as Irene will be, but it certainly is worth mentioning. Ryan1000 22:25, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Update:Now it's forecast to keep on going, possibly to a cat 3, and then head towards Japan and/or the Koreas. Keep your eyes out for this storm. I know we're all distracted by Irene, but we have to pay attention here a bit too, you know. Ryan1000 00:54, August 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Wow. this just shows how unpredictable the tropics are. This storm wasn't fgoing to become much more thna a TD, and now a strong typhoon? Wow. Yqt1001 01:22, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

Typhoon Nanmadol (Mina)
Another typhoon. Yqt1001 03:58, August 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * And latest forecast calls for a 135 mph storm now. Keep your eyes out Japan and the Koreas. This could get ugly... Ryan1000 04:29, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Uh, Wunderground's showing Nanmadol as a 115 kt typhoon, so either they've gone insane, or Nanmadol pulled a Muifa and became a Cat 4 when our backs were turned. It's also showing a satellite image of Nanmadol west of Luzon while the forecast track shows it to the east of that island... --HurricaneMaker99 21:26, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm seeing a pinhole eye on this thing... Nanmadol is going nuts out there. Luzon could be in for one helluva storm; hopefully, they'll come out alarmingly well like they did with Cimaron '06 and Megi '10. --HurricaneMaker99 21:35, August 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Think the sat image is messed up, but it did RI. It had a pinhole eye yesterday. Yqt1001 21:32, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * What the... how did I not EC with you? --HurricaneMaker99 21:36, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

Major Typhoon Nanmadol
And it's now exploded to 115 kts/135 mph. This thing is about to slam Luzon and later Taiwan or China perhaps. It's not turning as far north as I formerly thought... This could get real ugly... Furthermore if you look at the sattelite imagery, Talas is nearly 3 times the size of Nanmadol despite being so much weaker. This storm may weaken like Darby did from it's proxmitity to Alex last year. The weak storms don't always eat the strong storms but that may just happen in this case. Ryan1000 21:40, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * God, Nanmadol looks so perfect in that image. Reminds me of Celia last year. --HurricaneMaker99 01:12, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bah, not anymore. Impressive, yes, but not Celia '10 or John '94 impressive. --HurricaneMaker99 21:51, August 26, 2011 (UTC)

Super Typhoon Nanmadol
Super typhoon now, with 135 kts and counting; forecast to become a Cat 5. It's gone north since yesterday, which is good news for Luzon, but it could still (severely) suck for the Ryukyu Islands. --HurricaneMaker99 12:27, August 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * Nanmadol will probrably the third C5 of the season, after Muifa and Songda. It's not looking so good for the folks up in Japan, but normally typhoons that threaten Japan rapidly weaken to C1's or C2's, sometimes C3's before landfall. Hopefully the same will happen with this one. Not for the Ryukyu's, but for the mainland part of the country. Ryan1000 14:22, August 26, 2011 (UTC)

Major Typhoon Namadol
Nanmadol pulled an irene and collapsed on itself. Might get another chance at C5 before making landfall on Taiwan. Yqt1001 00:33, August 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * It weakened due to interaction with Luzon not due to interaction with unfavorable conditions like Irene did. And Talas is strengthening as it heads towards Tokyo perhaps, over the next several days. Ryan1000 16:58, August 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * Heading for Taiwan. Cyclone10 19:40, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Talas
Hrmm, a TS appeared out of nowhere! Expected to become a typhoon while slowly going ut to sea. Yqt1001 11:58, August 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's quite a ways away from Nanmadol, so no fighting will occur between these two storms. The WPac is starting to get it's act together a bit more. Ryan1000 15:11, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look good for Japan. Cyclone10 19:35, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look good for Japan. Cyclone10 19:35, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
We have some storms and some possible retirement canidates in the WPac. Anyone have any calls here? Here's mine:


 * Aere - 25% - It killed more than 40 people in the Philipines and caused several million dollars in damage. If it's PAGASA name, Bebeng, became retired, Aere itself also has a chance as well. However, just because a storm´s PAGASA name becomes retired doesn´t exactly mean it´s JMA name will too.


 * Songda - 8% - A very rare May category 5, but fortunately it didn't cause signifigant damage on land.


 * Sarika - 40% - Well, this thing did do 248 million in damage and 29 deaths, so although Sarika was the weakest storm thus far, it was also the most damaging storm thus far with a moderate death toll, so it certainly has a chance. But like Ma-On, China has seen much worse (Chanchu, Saomai, Bilis, Rananim, ect).


 * Haima - 5% - It was minor, and caused no more impact than Songda, in general.


 * Meari - 5% - It was feared to be stronger, but it never caused signifigant damage on land.
 * Ma-on - 10% - It only hit as a category one storm, it apparently wasn´t that bad after all. It did do about 27 million in damages and kill 5 people, but Japan has seen much worse than that.
 * Tokage - 0% - What an epic fail.
 * Nock-Ten - 45% - It killed a lot of people in the Philipines and Vietnam, but it's not like they haven't seen this before (Xangsane, Angela, Durian, etc.), so I'm going to be conservative and say maybe to Nock-Ten. However, "Juaning" is gone due to the damage and deaths it did in the Philipines.
 * Muifa - 40% - The latest damage figure is out, and my opinion on Muifa is similar to mine on Sarika; it killed a fair ammount of people and cause somewhat extensive damage, but the areas affected by Muifa have gone through much worse.
 * Merbok - 0% - Other than becoming a typhoon briefly, what did this thing do?
 * Nanmadol - ?? It hasn't hit anyone yet, so I can't give him a particular number.
 * Talas - ?? - As with Nanmadol, it hasn't hit land yet, so there's no telling what it could do.

Ryan1000 18:26, July 24, 2011 (UTC)

Mine:

JMA: 

Aere - 80% - DEVESTATED a whole country, left millions of dollars in it's path, got its PAGASA name removed, no way this monster is staying, he'd have to pull a Karl not to be removed.

Songda - 4% - Very notable, but little damage.

Sarika - 95% - EXTREMELY damaging, was worse than Aere, and left lots of damage to China. I don't think Sarika has a chance of staying at all.

Haima - 25% - Added on to Sarika, but not much.

Meari - 0% - OOOH...FISHIE!

Ma-on - 40% - I saw the waves crash on shore (via video) and Ma-on has a good chance.

Tokage - 0% - Nothing at all.

Nock-ten - 70% - $140 million (of) damages and 55 deaths in Vietnam, China and the Philippines? Likely to be retired this December.

Muifa - 50% - Devestated China, Korea, and and Japan! This has a VERY good shot at going. But then, it wasn't Aere or Sarika bad.

Merbok - 0% - Okay... what did this do?

Nanmadol - (I'll tell you when it fizzles)

Talas - (I'll tell you after it fizzles)

PAGASA: 

Amang - 0% - What did this do again?

(Bebeng already removed)

Chedeng - 1% - See Amang's section.

Dodong - 4% - The chances aren't very good, because more damage happened in China.

Egay - 2% - See Dodong's section.

Falcon - 0% - Don't you love fishies?

Goring - 1% - Ditto.

Hanna - 0% - And she did nothing (again).

Ineng - 2% - Because Japan saw more from this than the Phillipines.

Juaning - 95% - P1 billion of damages and 52 deaths? No way, this has a very big chance of being retired.

Kabayan - 4% - See Dodong's section.

Lando - 0% - see Amang, Chedeng, Falcon and Hanna's sections.

Mina - (I'll tell you when she fizzles)

Andrew444 13:06, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

Update: Juaning has been retired. IMO, it had to go because it had both more damage and deaths than Bebeng (Aere) back in May. Hurricane Andrew (444)

Replacement names
No harm in starting this. Does anyone have replacement names for Bebeng and/or Juaning?

Here are some:

Female J names (Juaning): Janisa, Jardena, June, Jada, Jade, Jeanette, Jun, Judit, Judy, Julia

Female B names (Bebeng) (continuing HM99's list): Bonnie, Brittany, Bri, Bonny, Bertha, Bebe, Belinda, Belle, Bella, Bebel

None of these will likely verify, but honestly, no one really cares about this section anymore. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:35, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, this was one of my favorites; I guess no-one started this up yet because not that many names have been retired. Anyway, since I'm not sure what gender Bebeng or Juaning are:
 * Bebeng (male):
 * Bart, Benny, Bobby, Brendan, Billy, Bert, Bernie, Bertie, Barry, Blake, Bruce, Bono (Who knows? There might be U2 fans in PAGASA) --HurricaneMaker99 15:27, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bebeng (female):
 * Barbie, Becky, Betty, Brenda, Babe, Beverly, Bianca, Brianna
 * Juaning (male):
 * Jack, Jeff, James, Jordan, Joseph, Josh, Joshua, Joe, Johnny, Jerry, Jim, Johann
 * --HurricaneMaker99 15:27, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't know what name may be submitted for Juaning or Bebeng, but in the case of JMA replacements, it will be really tough to guess because replacement names for JMA names don't have to begin with the same letter as the retiree in question. There aren't any reasonable retirement canidates as of now anyways for the JMA. Neither Juaning or Bebeng hit the Philipines as hard as other storms in the past, but given the number of people they killed and the fact the Philipines are much more prepared now, they likely were pretty bad for them anyways, and I won't argue about it. Ryan1000 00:13, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * HurricaneMaker, Bebeng and Juaning are both female names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:20, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * Replacement for Juaning is Julia. Hurricane Andrew, you got it right! Cyclone10 19:37, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Replacement for Juaning is Julia. Hurricane Andrew, you got it right! Cyclone10 19:37, August 27, 2011 (UTC)