Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season/November

November
The season has been pretty quiet recently...hopefully we can still see Raymond before the year is over. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:40, November 2, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Several Hundred Miles SSW of Baja
Popped up on the TWO at 20/20, although it'll only be a weakling at the very most. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:48, November 5, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/10, this won't develop anymore. I'm starting to doubt if Raymond will even come at all this year. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:13, November 5, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now near 0%, almost down and out. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:15, November 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * And it's off the TWO. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:05, November 6, 2019 (UTC)

Appears to be back on the TWO with 10/10 chances, although upper-level winds will completely prevent development. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:11, November 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now near 0%. This never even had a chance IMO. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:27, November 9, 2019 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. Raymond won't come at all at this rate. But maybe I still spoke too soon and it comes before the end of the month, hopefully as a hurricane if possible. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  02:42, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Several Hundred Miles South of Mexico
This was on the outlook since yesterday, initially with a 10/20 chance, but now it's 0/30. Unlike the above AOI, conditions might be favorable enough for Raymond to form. Hopefully. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:12, November 11, 2019 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested and now 50/80. Raymond might come from this one. Interestingly, there Ramon (aka Kalmaegi) in the WPac and then here's potential Raymond. Distant relatives, anyone? Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:23, November 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yep they sound similar, like distant relatives or something. Not to mention, in 2023, Ramon will be on both the EPac and PAGASA lists (assuming this year's is not bad enough to be retired). It would be so amazing if the two "Ramon"s coexisted that year. 😂 Anyhow, this invest, if it develops, will probably be another weak and short lived TS because conditions will be unfavorable by late this weekend. This would sadly break the streak of "Raymond" being a major every time he was used, a C4 in 1983 and 1989 and a C3 in 2013. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:05, November 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 60/80, Raymond might come by Friday or the weekend. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:05, November 14, 2019 (UTC)

Now 70/80. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:39, November 14, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 80/80. Looks very likely to become a TD and Raymond in the next couple days, maybe even by tonight. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:42, November 14, 2019 (UTC)


 * Mike here. I've been monitoring this invest for a while now, I think a weak TS and short-lived. --Aquaria485 (talk) 17:12, November 14, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty-E
Now a TD, expected to become Raymond. And welcome to the wiki Mike, I hope you have a good time here with us :) ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:26, November 15, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Raymond
And 20E finally becomes a TS. Raymond is forecast to reach 60 mph in the coming days before weakening as it reaches the Baja area. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:19, November 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50 mph/1002 mbar and expected to peak at 60 mph in 12 hours. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:07, November 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like it has peaked as shear increases over the system. Down to 45 mph, although it's still a bit more intense in terms of pressure compared to my last post - 1000 mbar. It's getting highly unlikely that it will still be a TC when it reaches the Baja Peninsula. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:38, November 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 40 mph/1001 mbar and expected to die out tomorrow night. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:49, November 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Raymond
Raymond actually weakened to a TD earlier but... Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:06, November 17, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Raymond
... now Raymond is officially down and out. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:06, November 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Degenerated quicker than I expected. The remnants interacting with a developing trough are actually up on the outlook with a near 0% chance. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:49, November 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Goodbye until 2025, Raymond! ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:18, November 18, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of 93E
10/10, won't likely to become anything, I guess. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 18:23, November 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * This actually peaked at 20/20 on the outlook earlier, but yeah, this won't develop. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:08, November 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%, should be off soon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:39, November 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it has died. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:27, November 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
At 10/20. However, conditions will be only marginally conducive. I don't really expect to see Sonia out of this. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:36, November 15, 2019 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invested and 20/30. Maybe it might become Sonia but it probably won't be anything significant. This might be the very last shot for another named storm for the rest of the season. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:17, November 15, 2019 (UTC)

Surprise, it's up to 60/70. Sonia could very well come from this. I'm quite shocked that we could see 2 storms active at this time of year, especially after the EPac seemed almost hopelessly dead early this month. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  07:10, November 16, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E
And it's now a TD. Future (?) Sonia is expected to peak at 45 mph. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:29, November 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * If this becomes Sonia, it would be the first time since 2015 in which two named storms formed in the EPac during November, though it isn't expected to become very strong, not more than 45 mph. Ryan1000 12:38, November 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * This TD has fallen apart over the past six hours and is no longer forecast to become Sonia. What a short-lived failure (unless it somehow makes a strong comeback). Raymond could have very well been the final named system this year. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:42, November 16, 2019 (UTC)

Still holding on at TD intensity. Maybe we won't see Sonia after all. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:06, November 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * It has weakened to 30 mph/1007 mbars and barely hanging on. Yep, it shouldn't be Sonia. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:50, November 17, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression Twenty-one-E
Poof, without ever becoming a TS. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:18, November 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Baja California
An upper-level low/surface trough region is marked with a near 0% on the outlook and will bring heavy rain to Baja and northwestern Mexico. Not sure why they would mention it when it has literally no chance of developing. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:56, November 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. I think this season's about done for good. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:19, November 29, 2019 (UTC)