Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season/Arthur

AOI:South Carolina
Random low near Charlotte has a 0/20% chance.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  16:12, June 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * According to Dr. Master's latest WUnderblog post, this one might have a chance of developing early next week, with only moderate 10-20 knot shear in the area just off the Carolinas on the U.S. East Coast. I don't expect it to become much if it does develop, maybe a minimal TS out to sea, but if it doesn't develop before July, it'll finally end the longest streak of storms forming in June or earlier in the Atlantic (every year from 2005-2013 had a storm of some intensity form in the Atlantic in June or earlier). Ryan1000 20:49, June 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * I expect some very gradual development of the system, no stronger than a weak tropical storm at most. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:51, June 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm also thinking of a weak to moderate TS from this storm. Hopefully the struggling Atlantic finally produces a named storm soon, possibly out of this low!  Steve  820  ✉   03:32, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Please, become a TD or a hurricane (as long as the latter is out to sea), but nothing in between! I'm tired of the name Arthur always going to weak storms. I can go a little while longer without a named storm in the ATL if it means Arthur having a fair shot at hurricane strength. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:14, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Up to 30% (50%). I predict an Arthur out of this, but like Dylan said, I hope it doesn't peak as a tropical storm. I really, really hope we see a hurricane out of this, since I'm not a fan of weak depressions and especially not a fan of weakling TS's that steal/hijack a name off the list. This needs to be a hurricane! Come on AOI, try your hardest and don't peak as a weak TS or a depression!  Steve  820  ✉   17:04, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Expect tropical storm Arthur or tropical depression 1 by tomorrow afternoon when the airplane of the NHC reach it.Allanjeffs 17:15, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * For the ones that want a hurricane out of this you might get your chance as the Euro now shows a hurricane entering the Carolinas out of this, it might occur if the system doesn't make landfall in Florida first before recurving,and there is plenty of warm water in the East coast so its not impossible we get hurricane Arthur out of this.Allanjeffs 18:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
This AOI has been designated Invest 91L per Wunderground. Although showers and thunderstorms are rather disorganized, conditions will likely be conductive for additional development over the next few days. Its chances of formation have risen to 40% for the next two days and 60% for the next five. The Gulf Stream temperatures are slightly above average, wind shear is moderate, and dry air should not impose Invest 91L's development. Allan, I definitely think this invest has a very good shot at becoming a tropical storm, but poor King Arthur's non-hurricane streak may continue. This invest is rather close to land to become a hurricane, let alone in late June. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:53, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

You will be surprise of how many storms have give us surprising Andrew in the past, I am just saying look for example at Beryl she almost became a hurricane approaching Florida. If the system can come close to Florida but then turn away and move out to sea we may have a shot at seeing our first hurricane. Btw shear is not going to be a problem as an anticyclone is forming over our system.Allanjeffs 22:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Should it become a depression or Arthur before July 1, the streak of early-season storms will be 9 years. I don't expect this to do much intensity-wise, although there have been quite a few surprises thus far this year in EPac, and I wouldn't be surprised if this one surprises us too. My guess is it would probably become a 60-65 mph storm at best, but I'm not calling for a hurricane just yet. Ryan1000 12:30, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's up to 60% (80%), here comes Arthur! :D I think there's an outside shot at hurricane status but I wouldn't count on it.  Steve  820  ✉   18:52, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Some Tweets by Anthony Siciliano (@Ants_SNEweather) show model guidance that indicates potential New England impacts just in time for Independence Day. I don't know about you guys, but as much as I respect the power of Mother Nature, I do not appreciate her raining on my 4th of July festivities. Back off, future Arthur! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:39, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * St. Augustine radar shows Invest 91L is gradually becoming better organized. Although a spin and spiral rainbands are becoming more pronounced, wind shear of 5 to 10 knots ad dry air are suffocating the northern quadrant of the system. By late Tuesday, however, conditions could become much more favorable for a tropical storm to develop. HWRF crashes Invest 91L into Florida on Tuesday, while GFS, UKMET and the Euro model keep it offshore. Regardless, rainfall of a few inches are expected for much of the southern East Coast over the next couple of days. Dylan, only one ensemble model smashes this invest into New England per Wunderground, so you should be good for now. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:40, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * There is actually a good chance for a subtropical storm to form, suggested by GFDL and HWRF, with a path similar to Cristobal 08. It should sink south then loop back and recurve into the gulf stream, I think it will peak in the 30-40kt range. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:02, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict it'll become Arthur tomorrow or Tuesday. Hopefully it won't threaten the east coast so much, and like Dylan said, I hope it won't ruin 4th of July festivities!  Steve  820  ✉   03:04, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 60% (80%) and a bit disorganized, hopefully it becomes Arthur soon. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft should investigate it this afternoon to see if a depression or Arthur has formed by then.  Steve  820  ✉   15:20, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Aw, latest NHC discussion said it was so close. 80% for the next two and 5 days, it'll probably become Arthur by tomorrow. Ryan1000 22:32, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * The longer future-Arthur waits to form, the farther offshore it will go, the less my 4th of July weather will suck. Arthur can wait. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:01, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wheather this becomes Arthur or not its going to bring a lot of rain to all the NE coast.Allanjeffs 00:16, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) HurricaneSpin, I wish that would be Arthur-to-be's peak intensity, but I have a bad feeling it will get much stronger than that. I wanted the first-ever Hurricane Arthur this year; I think I'm about to get a lesson to be careful what I wish for, lol. Unusually high SSTs lie offshore the East Coast, and atmospheric conditions are expected to improve over the next few days. My intensity forecast calls for a 75-knot Category 1 Hurricane Arthur. As far as the track goes, there are a lot of options open. It could strike the Carolinas dead-on and ride up the East Coast from there, a la Hanna '08 and Gaston '04; or it could flirt with the Outer Banks and either a.) pass just offshore Cape Cod and the Islands, a la Earl '10, or b.) make a bee line for Rhode Island, a la Bob (though likely, hopefully, much weaker; this, by the way, is the scenario predicted by the 18z run of the HWRF). Anywhere in between is possible. This is not looking like anything for the record books, but it could still potentially impact a lot of people at a very busy time of year. Screw Douglas, it's failing miserably. Screw Elida, it might get stronger but it shouldn't do too much. The impending Independence Day cyclone is the only tropical event I'm concerned about right now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:24, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Models are now going up in intesity with this but they are a lot of factors to play, first if it makes landfall in Florida or NC, It could make landfall in the outer banks or pass very close, that would be good for the NE region because it would make the system weaker but it would be bad for NC. We need to see this first become a td or ts and then see from there, but I really believe this have a shot at becoming our first hurricane.Allanjeffs 01:19, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, I understand where your bad feeling is coming from, but I don't think Arthur would become as bad as you described (hopefully). The worst case scenario right now would be the Euro run, which traps the first trough to pass through with a ridge building in between, giving 91L lots of time to strengthen before it gets picked up by a second trough. This scenario brings a strong TS up the Carolinas into the East Coast like Hanna as you described. However, it is much more likely for the first trough to pick up Arthur by Wednesday, leaving less time for the storm to deepen. This track bring Arthur out to sea as a minimal TS. An upper level high NW of 91L will likely diffuse, leaving less shear for a storm to brew. The general model consensus for where Arthur will be on the 4th of July is anywhere between the open Atlantic to Cape Hatteras and westwards inland the Carolinas, which could be troublesome. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  01:51, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

(←) (Edit conflict) Man, Invest 91L is really close to becoming a tropical cyclone. Only a little more organization is needed for a tropical depression to come. However, dry air is penetrating the heart of this system. 91L is expected to meander offshore Florida in a southwestwards direction at 5 mph until Thursday, when a trough will drag it northwards towards the Carolinas. There are many uncertainties with the forecast. If the invest makes landfall over Florida, land interaction will halt any development. However, since 91L is over the Gulf Stream, our first July hurricane in six years could be possible later this week. Rains of two to four inches, possibly up to eight inches, will affect the Bahamas, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas this week. Dylan, I think you are getting a little too extreme with 91L. Although GFS and the Euro model smash it into South Carolina on Thursday, due to dry air, wind shear, and land interaction, the invest will likely at worse reach 50 knots (60 mph), so you should be good for now. You might get some rain, but I doubt anything like Bob or Carol. The NHC keep the invest's chances for formation at 80% for the next two and five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:06, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One
First TD of the year.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Happy Canada Day and hurricane season, everyone! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:00, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Forming on 03Z July 1st means that we break the 10 year active July streak! - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  03:03, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Predicted to peak around 60kt, just shy of hurricane status. - HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  03:07, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Might be our first hurricane after all and the first time Arthur might be a hurricane. btw happy hurricane season and first day of July in your area. Its still June 30 in Honduras.Btw as this is an El Niño expect this area to be where the majority of the activity will be.Allanjeffs 03:44, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yay, we finally got a new depression! Since it appearently formed at the very start of July 1 in UTC time looks like this is the first Atlantic season since 2004 to not have a tropical cyclone in June. Hopefully he becomes a hurricane so it'll be the first time the name "Arthur" would be used for a hurricane. Happy hurricane season, and I know it's off-topic but also, happy Canada Day and the start of July! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   04:42, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * NHC now forecasting a hurricane. The name Arthur might be finally given to a hurricane. Sorry for the ones that live NC up.Allanjeffs 08:48, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is not good news, 5AM adv predicts a hurricane by 7/4 right off the Outer Banks. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  09:02, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, it's not going to be too bad, NHC only sees it clipping the outer banks as a cat 1, it's not like NC hasn't seen something like that before. However, if Arthur hits NC as a hurricane, it'll be the first to do so in July since Bertha in 1996. It'll also be the first hurricane Arthur ever, and will leave Ana and Beryl as the only storms that never became hurricanes every time since they were used since 1979. Ryan1000 12:13, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Arthur
Just in from NHC. 35 kts, 1007 mbar, expected to peak at 70 kts while skimming the Outer Banks. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:16, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * From @wxtrackercody on Twitter: "Data from recon: flight-level winds near 70 mph, surface winds near 60 mph; rain-rate <0.4"/hr so not rain-contaminated." What... we'll wait and see what the NHC says shortly, but if that measurement is reliable then Arthur could break its bad luck streak much sooner than expected. Also, I should mention that the GFDL is currently predicting a decently intense hurricane with a pressure in the low 970s passing very close to the Cape and Islands late on July 4 local time (early July 5 UTC). This could get hairy if that model run turns out to be correct. In response to earlier comments, maybe I'm being a little overzealous, maybe I'm not looking closely enough at the environmental factors in Arthur's path, but I don't think Arthur will go away without impacting anyone in the process and I want to consider the worst-case scenarios here. Do I think Arthur will be a re-Bob or Carol? No, but it's not impossible. A re-Earl or a weaker rendition of Alex '04 is more likely IMO, which would result in a less-than-severe impact in New England, which I call home, but I'm still keeping a close eye on this thing. It's not often that a tropical system approaches my homeland this early in the season; of course I'd get excited. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:43, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ok, so the latest NHC advisory settles for a middle ground between sanity and the aforementioned recon findings. 45 kts/1003 mbar now, with a forecast peak of 80 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:54, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * If Arthur can establish its center RI might occur with this system. NC should be prepare if Arthur continues to strength at this pace. cat 2 is not out of the question and cat 3 is not looking that impossible as of now.Allanjeffs 21:06, July 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Tropical storm watches are up for much of the Florida coast. Sustained winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) gusting to 51 mph (81 km/h) have been reported in Grand Bahama Island. Rainfall of one to three inches is expected across Eastern Florida and two to four inches across the northern Bahamas. Swells affecting large portions of Florida from Arthur will spread northwards into Georgia by Wednesday. Dylan, the recon flight may not have the best estimate of Arthur's winds because they were bounced around by very strong thunderstorms in the circulation. Being steered by a trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic region northwestwards for now, a second subtropical ridge should accelerate the storm northeastwards towards the Carolinas and New England in the next four to five days. The current NHC forecast resembles the TCVA model forecast. Unfortunately, the vertical wind shear which has been keeping Arthur in check will soon dissipate in about 48 hours, leaving just dry air to stop the system. Moreover, as the core of Arthur is moistening, the NHC expect the system to reach 80 knots (90 mph) while over the warm SST's of the Gulf Stream. Luckily, by Independence Day, wind shear will increase and SST's will decrease, prompting gradual weakening. Dylan, I wish you a strong survival in the wrath of Arthur. For now, you might just get some gale-force winds. Allan, I think Arthur will very likely become a hurricane, but an intensity on the level of Bertha '96 or '08 seems a little out of the question in my opinion due to land interaction, as you state. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:53, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now that means more people will be posting memes all over 4chan about the storm and that weasel-rat thing. Oh wait- it's an aardvark... Anyway... I must say that this is actually pretty impressive knowing that how everyone thought this season would be a bust.. but I was pretty surprised to see the King himself making his way up the US of A! Enjoy your expedition, King Arthur.  “i liek turtlez 23:14, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hate to admit, it, but you may be right Allan, Arthur looks like he'll redeem himself quite a bit with the latest appearance he has on sattelite imagery. If it keeps organizing at this rate, it could even become a hurricane by late tomorrow or Thursday instead of Friday, though I don't think it's peak will be past cat 2. Also, with the expected increase in intensity, Arthur might miss the outer banks of North Carolina and not do much other than bring some rain and surf, which would be a lot better than a full-fledged landfall. And Andrew, Arthur has been fighting the dry air north of him rather nicely so far, that might not even be a hindrance to his intensification to a hurricane. Ryan1000 01:48, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict it'll peak as a strong Cat. 1 or a weak Cat. 2 (between 85-100 mph). Hopefully it won't be a very bad storm for the east coast, and it shouldn't be a re-Bob or a re-Carol. It's also a bit surprising to see a potential hurricane riding up the east coast in time for 4th of July festivities. Hopefully it won't ruin 4th of July along the east coast! If it does, they might chose to celebrate it on the 5th or 6th instead. Luckily I live in SoCal, so we'll have a sunny 4th of July without any major storm threatening! RI isn't out of the question for Arthur IMO, but it should only peak as a Cat. 2 or even a weak Cat. 3 at very most. Dylan, hopefully you'll be safe from the storm, and pray for it to not ruin your 4th of July! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   02:15, July 2, 2014 (UTC)

Arthur's looking pretty healthy today. Convection is wrapping around an apparent eye-like feature; it seems like Arthur is trying to wall off the dry air to its north. It's still affecting the storm somewhat - the outflow is restricted on the north side - but it seems as though Arthur's winning against it, as Ryan mentioned above. The intensity has been pretty stable since last night - it's currently at 50 kts/997 mbar - but that should change soon. The current forecast for Arthur to reach hurricane strength tomorrow is reasonable. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:45, July 2, 2014 (UTC)

Arthur has strength base on the ATCF  and now has winds of 65mph but it looks to strength more as NHC planes are flying over the system. For some reason the models have trend west and now our best model the Euro makes Arthur to hit NC. Models are now predicting a strong cat 1 or weak cat 2. looks like NC fireworks might be ruin sorry for them but safety first.Allanjeffs 18:58, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Almost there... 60 kts/992 mbar. Hurricane Warning up for NC from Surf City northward to Duck. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hurricane watches are up between Little River Inlet and Surf City. Tropical storm warnings are up for the South Carolina coast north of the South Santee River, West Ablemarle Sound, and from Duck City north to Cape Charles Light in Virginia. Gale-force and hurricane-force conditions are expected in the warning areas by Thursday evening. Vast portions of the Carolinas could be under two to four feet of water if Arthur strikes at high tide. Additional rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected for eastern Florida and the Bahamas, with two to four inches of rain (maybe even six) expected for much of coastal North Carolina by Friday. Hazardous surf and rip current conditions are affecting the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas, which will spread northwards to Georgia and the Carolinas over the next few days. NOAA and Air Force renaissance data indicate the wind field radius of 80 miles (130 km) is gradually expanding and Arthur is continuing to put on strength. As a matter of fact, I would call the structure of this closer to that of a 70-75 knot hurricane instead of a 60 knot tropical storm. Dylan, in my opinion, the only reason Arthur is not a hurricane just yet is because of some dry air still interacting with its circulation. But with weak wind shear and warm SST's, Arthur could easily break its weak streak as soon as the 0000Z update. ECMWF and GFS continue to expand the storm's core before potential landfall over North Carolina. Weak flow from a subtropical ridge is currently steering Arthur northwards, but it should begin acceleration to the northeast in about 24 hours due to a mid-latitude southwesterly flow. The NHC forecast now calls for Arthur to come dangerously close to the North Carolina coast (a la Ophelia '05 or Alex '04) and reach a peak intensity of 75 knots (85 mph). Liz, I would not cheer Arthur right now. His expedition will be very eventful for much of the U.S. East Coast. Stay safe, Dylan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:48, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * For those who are curious, here is where you can find a visual of potential storm surge impact from Arthur. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:52, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow, this thing is looking impressive. If it continues to organize, strong cat 1 or even cat 2 might not be out of the question before it makes landfall in NC. Luckily, it'll be moving fast when it nears NC, so it won't be over land for very long, maybe 3-6 hours before moving back out to sea. But after 30 years of failing, Arthur is finally going to redeem himself as the first Hurricane Arthur in history. Hopefully the folks in NC are evacuating by now, this might be dangerous for parts of the outer banks. Ryan1000 22:23, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * I will probably get the outer bands of Arthur, meaning high surf and most likely some rain where   I live. Also, I wouldn't rule out rapid intensification right now, as it may very well happen if Arthur   gets its act together to be able to do so. HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 22:21, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wait, Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) also lives in the east coast and might be affected by Arthur! Are you trying to impersonate him? With your very similar username and claimed location...but, guess what? You'll never be like Dylan! There's only one Dylan and that's HurricaneMaker99! Either you should get a username change, or continue to impersonate and risk being blocked, it's up to you. Anyways, Arthur should be a hurricane by the next advisory. It's lookin' very good! I predict a strong Cat. 1 out of Arthur before land interaction with the east coast will weaken it. They'll get all soaked on 4th of July looks like! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:31, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Damn straight, Steven! I've already reported him to Ryan, FWIW. I don't know if you've seen the impostor's post in the EPAC retirement predictions, but he basically paraphrased my predictions and posted them right below mine. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:34, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * And yes, I'll be shocked if Arthur isn't upgraded to a hurricane at the 8pm interim advisory. There's just too much supporting data coming from recon to declare otherwise. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:36, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * FWIW, I forgot to mention this earlier, but Hatteras Island is under a mandatory evacuation. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:46, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I've seen his EPac retirements post. I think he should be banned from this wiki until/or if he stops impersonating. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:49, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think that first post pretty clearly demonstrated his intentions lol. Anyway, the oh-so-conservative NHC kept Arthur as a tropical storm. Shocker! Same winds as before, pressure down to 990 mbar. If Arthur isn't upgraded at 11pm then something is seriously wrong here. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:01, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, scratch that, doesn't look as impressive as it did earlier. Last night is repeating itself in that the dry air is having a better time wrapping itself into Arthur's core. Could still become a hurricane tomorrow, though. EDIT: Pressure down to 988 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:44, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Arthur
After 30 years of failing to do it, Arthur accomplished the same feat Erick of last year did, and finally became a hurricane. Forecast to peak at 85 mph when it skims past the outer banks of NC tonight. About HurricaneHunter, I blocked his/her account. Because I'm nice, and he's rather new, I gave him permission to make one more if he wants, so long as he's not trying to impersonate someone else's account or copy/paste what they say. EDIT: Also, Arthur technically formed in July, so I moved this to the July section. Ryan1000 10:48, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

Arthur has now strengthened with 80 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 983 mbar. I personally think it is possible Arthur could become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall takes place. This has to be a productive day for Arthur for him to reach that strength. BigO99 (talk) 12:15, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

Up to 90mph, Arthur is really intensifying and may become a cat 3 before a landfall in NC. The USA drought of major hurricane since Wilma may end in just a few hours if this trends continue.Allanjeffs 15:09, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Oh hey, it finally became a hurricane! And a strong one at that. Allan, I don't predict a Category 3, instead Arthur might peak as a strong Cat. 2. But who knows what could happen? There's a slight chance we might actually get our first major hurricane landfall in the U.S. since Wilma if it continues to strengthen rapidly! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:55, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * It seems a close call as to forecasting the peak intensity for Arthur, but I believe it should peak in the 100-105 mph threshold. However, it does have a shot at becoming a major. BigO99 (talk) 17:30, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * A Category 3 seems just ever so slightly far-fetched at this point, but it's not impossible, especially if Arthur pulls what it did this morning and strengthens 15 kts in 6 hours. My money is on an 85-knot Category 2 for the 5pm advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:32, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Air Force Reserve data have found winds of 91 knots and 83 knots, respectively. Due to low wind shear and warm SST's, Arthur should continue to intensify, potentially even nearing Category 2 intensity as the NHC expects. Afterwards, as the hurricane interacts with a deep-layer trough, cooler SST's north of the Gulf Stream will induce steady weakening and steer it away from the U.S. East Coast. Degeneration into an extratropical cyclone is predicted in about 48 hours. Radar and aircraft data indicate Arthur is beginning to turn north-northeastwards, and the deep-layer trough should soon steer it northeastwards very near North Carolina in the next 24 hours. Only a slight deviation from the NHC forecast track would result in the first North Carolina hurricane landfall since Isabel in 2003. Afterwards, GFS and HWRF accelerate Arthur very near Atlantic Canada in the next two to three days, while ECMWF takes the hurricane more eastwards. Hurricane warnings are up for the North Carolina coast north of Surf City, Pamlico Sound, and East Albemarle Sound. A hurricane watch is in effect from Surf City southwards to the South Santee River. Tropical storm warnings are up for the Carolina coast between Surf City and the South Santee River, West Albemarle Sound, and the Virginia coastline to Cape Charles Light, including Chesapeake Bay. Arthur is currently 70 miles (115 km) south-southwest of Cape Fear, North Carolina, and its current NHC intensity is 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h)/980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg). Sustained winds of 52 mph gusting to 67 mph have been reported just east-southeast of Charleston. Gale-force and hurricane-force winds should reach the warning areas tonight. Most of the North Carolina coast will witness a storm surge of three to five feet, with lower surges affecting other regions in warnings. Rainfall of three to five, potentially seven inches, will begin to affect North Carolina tonight, with additional accumulations of one to two inches expected for northeastern South Carolina. Tornadoes could be a primary threat to the region tonight as well. Also, life-threatening surf and rip currents are being caused by surf from central Florida all the way to South Carolina. The current NHC forecast takes Arthur up to 90 knots (105 mph). Not a good sign for North Carolina. Many folks up in the Northeast should expect gale-force winds from Arthur in the next couple of days as well. Allan, I think a major hurricane from Arthur is just slightly pushing it for now. This is not how I wanted Arthur to end his unlucky streak. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:35, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Arthur has not intensified much recently. Flight-level and SFMR wind data indicate winds of 84 and 82 knots, respectively. This has resulted in the NHC maintaining winds of 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h) for the 2100Z advisory. The eye of Arthur has become more distinct on satellite imagery, although overall presentation remains the same. For the next 12 to 18 hours, Arthur has a very good chance of becoming a Category 2 hurricane due to favorable environmental conditions, but the increase of vertical wind shear will prompt rapid weakening and the deep-layer trough will accelerate Arthur away from the East Coast and cue degeneration in some 48 hours. Gradual weakening is expected afterwards. Aircraft and radar fixes suggest the hurricane will soon turn northeastwards and accelerate past North Carolina. The NHC forecast has been shifted so the Outer Banks will receive their first hurricane landfall in nearly 11 years (excluding Ophelia '05 and Alex '04). Stronger winds are now expected for the region. Also, Nantucket Island and Cape Cod from Provincetown to Chatham are under a tropical storm warning and Environment Canada has issued a tropical storm watch for the Nova Scotia coast from Point Maitland to Port Aconi. Rainfall of four to six inches, even up to eight inches, are now expected for the North Carolina coast and two to four inches of rain should settle in Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Many cities in North Carolina are almost guaranteed to see gale-force winds within the evening. Also, as a little side note, Arthur is the first Atlantic July hurricane since Dolly in 2008. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:18, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Damn, this thing is impressive. Current NHC forecast calls for a 100 mph cat 2, but it's almost near landfall in NC, about 6 hours or so before it hits. We'll see how it does, but until then, the folks there better be getting out, this might get a little nasty for parts of the outer banks. And hopefully Arthur turns enough to miss New England, although I just have this bad feeling it'll end up hitting Rhode Island...let's hope it doesn't. Ryan1000 21:55, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's definitely RI'ing right now, expect the first US MH landfall since Wilma; Arthur looks like he could become a category 4 before landfall. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:57, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * If that is the case, it would be the first Category 4 in the basin since 2011. However, I personally think the NHC will stay consertative. We'll just have to see what it does in its final hours before landfall. BigO99 (talk) 22:06, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * If it somehow explodes enough to become a 4 before landfall, it would be the first cat 4 landfall in the US since Charley in 2004, though if it becomes a major at least, it would be the first US major since Wilma and first NC major since Fran. Unfortunately, that seems like it could happen. Look at this and tell me how Arthur isn't at least a category 2 hurricane right now. Ryan1000 22:11, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Gotta correct you, Andrew; NC's last hurricane was Irene, 3 years ago. HurricaneSpin, recon is coming back with data that would justify a 80-90 kt storm and Arthur doesn't have long before landfall. I highly doubt Arthur will reach Category 4 strength before landfall (if, god forbid, it does so, it will be NC's second Category 4 landfall in recorded history, after Hazel 60 years ago), but, as Ryan mentioned above, it sure as hell looks better than the strong Category 1 NHC is currently pinning it as. Do I expect Arthur to make landfall as a major hurricane? No, but I wouldn't put it past it to just barely scrape 100 kts before coming ashore. Even if Arthur only barely cracks Category 2 intensity, it's already doomed to be NC's strongest landfall since Isabel (as measured by windspeed; Irene came ashore with 75 kt winds, just below where Arthur is now, but with a 951 mbar pressure that outshines even Isabel, Floyd, and Fran's landfalls, which were at 957, 956, and 954 mbar, respectively). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:40, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

Ok, so it's officially the start of 4th of July in UTC time (even though where I live it's still July 3 as well as on the east coast). The east coast, especially North Carolina, are getting pounded by this thing! They'll certainly not have a great 4th of July which really sucks because it falls on a Friday this year. Arthur will rain on everyone's celebrations and fireworks and make this year's 4th of July a disappointment for them. Anyways, Arthur is still 90 mph! What's with the struggle? I was expecting a Category 2 but I don't know if it will reach it anymore! I'm not rooting for it, just saying. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:47, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Category 2 now, 85 kt/976 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:03, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * The hurricane watch south of Surf City has been discontinued, along with the tropical storm warning south of Little River Inlet. An NOAA buoy has reported winds of 65 mph gusting to 81 mph. A pressure of 978.3 mbar was also reported by a buoy. Steve, Arthur is struggling because dry air is still penetrating the hurricane's core. Remain safe, North Carolina! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:20, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


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 * id="comonly_455" style="box-sizing:border-box;padding:0px;margin:0px;font-size:0.875rem;line-height:1.5;"|For the first time in almost two years we have a cat 2 in the Atlantic. Now 2014 has produce with the first name storm a stronger hurricane in winds and in pressure than all 2013.Its the strongest storm to make landfall in NC since Isabel. btw even though not likely Arthur can still be a cat 3 but I need to see the winds in all of his quadrants first.Allanjeffs 01:32, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * }
 * Man, the northern eyewall of this thing is packing quite a powerful punch. Although dry air penetration might keep it at bay, it might still have a shot of minimal cat 3, or slightly stronger cat 2 (105/110 mph) before landfall on the outer banks later tonight. Arthur will also cause quite a nasty storm surge for parts of the islands. This will also be the earliest date for a hurricane landfall in North Carolina (second if you count the 1908 May Hurricane) as Bertha of 1996 didn't hit NC until July 12th. An unnamed storm in 1901 also hit North Carolina slightly before Bertha, on July 11th. Ryan1000 01:38, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Another trivia fact - Arthur's ACE of 2.81 is higher than all of last year's storms except Humberto, Ingrid, and Melissa! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:48, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * I take back that I said this could become a cat 4, this doesn't look like it will pull off an Omar as of right now. But otherwise I am quite surprised how there have not been consistent reports of higher winds. ADT estimate intensities of T5.8, which is around 110kts from when I first posted and just below cat-4 status. Landfall should come very soon and AF304 is currently penetrating the eyewall and new data should come very soon. There are lots of mid-level dry air being entrained into the core and the eye is open to both the NE and SW. I hope this turns out the best for anyone who is being affected right now. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:52, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * About to make landfall near Cape Lookout. Set to be the earliest NC hurricane landfall on record (unless the May 1908 storm counts), and the first Category 2+ hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Ike. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:23, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Arthur has made landfall over the Shackleford Banks.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:31, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * And it's the strongest landfall since Ike and the earliest NC hurricane landfall on record. Arthur, you're a record breaker! Hopefully North Carolina and the rest of the east coast won't get a whole lot of damage/deaths from this thing. I have a feeling it could be a bad storm due to the fact it struck whilst 4th of July preparations were taking place and how strong it was at landfall. And their 4th of July might be ruined because of Arthur raining down on their celebrations! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   04:47, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Dropped 3 mbars during 5am adv. Now over waters again. Arthur probably wasn't too extreme for NC compared to some other prior storms, only reports of power outage but the storm has not completely left yet. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  09:03, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Is it me, or is this Arthur just a much stronger version of his 1996 incarnation? Anyways, I haven't heard much as of yet, but a landfalling 100 mph storm can't pass without causing some impacts. Though I wouldn't be surprised if it's not too bad, NC is quite a well-prepared state for hurricanes, like Florida. Ryan1000 11:07, July 4, 2014 (UTC)Category 1 arthur. 71.187.141.243 16:02, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * 80 kts/977 mbar per the 2pm update. Ryan, Arthur '96 turned almost due east out to see after hitting NC, while Arthur '14 will be brushing by Cape Cod and the Islands (where I have friends vacationing, hopefully they stay safe), so I wouldn't quite call the latter a stronger version. They're similar, but not quite. One thing I noticed though is that, for the first time since Dolly, we got a US landfalling hurricane that wasn't freaking huge. Irene, Isaac, Ike, post-tropical Sandy, and probably Gustav as well - all large storms when they came ashore. Can't say that about Arthur. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:10, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hello everyone, haven't been updating because my computer stopped working and it needed to be repaired. Anyways, this sure was an interesting storm, I heard people saying that The Weather Channel was overestimating this storm, but hitting the Outer Banks as a Cat. 2 is serious due to flooding concerns. Fortunately no deaths or serious injuries have been caused and it didn't seem as bad as it could have been. Also after 30 years we FINALLY had a hurricane Arthur. Arthur is currently a cat 1 with winds of 90 mph.

leeboy100 (talk) 19:54, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Cloud tops surrounding Arthur have warmed recently, although its eye remains evident on geostationary satellite imagery. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured 94 kt 700 mbar winds in the southeast quadrant, but these conflict with SFMR winds of 68 knots. As Leeboy said, Arthur's intensity has been lowered to 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h)/977 mbar (hPa; 28.85 inHg). With the hurricane moving over cooler SST's and increasing amounts of shear will induce gradual weakening of the system, and interaction with the deep-layer trough and cold front will prompt extratropical transition in roughly 24 hours. Currently accelerating northeast at 25 mph (41 km/h), Arthur should make another landfall over Nova Scotia tomorrow morning. ECMWF takes Arthur afterwards northwards, and GFS steers it more towards Newfoundland. The NHC forecast takes the hurricane over much of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and then steering it very near Greenland. All coastal warnings for Virginia have been discontinued. Much of coastal Massachusetts and Atlantic Canada are under tropical storm warnings. Gale-force winds are slated to reach New England tonight and Atlantic Canada tomorrow morning. Huge swells affecting North Carolina, Virginia, and the Northeast will also reach Nova Scotia by tonight. Rainfall of two to four inches, possibly up to six inches, should start to pour down on coastal Maine, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island. Leeboy, a Category 2 landfall is bound to cause some impact, so I would wait a little to be that positive on Arthur's impact. Several cities, including Boston, have issued local warning statements. Stay safe, Dylan! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:41, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * The wind size of Arthur is beginning to increase, suggesting the start of a post-tropical transition. A peak 700-mb flight level wind of 103 knots is being conflicted with surface winds of 63 knots underneath. The intensity of Arthur has been lowered to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h)/979 mbar (hPa; 28.91 inHg). Non-tropical high wind warnings are in effect for much of eastern Maine. With the hurricane moving into waters of 24C and below, as well as increasing southwesterly shear, it should become post-tropical tomorrow morning and continue to weaken thereafter. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough should further Arthur's northeastern acceleration of 26 mph (43 km/h) over the next 24 to 36 hours. Afterwards, the NHC steers the system through the heart of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, before grazing Newfoundland and Labrador in addition to Greenland as a dying extratropical cyclone, between the ECMWF and GFS models. Most of the aformentioned conditions should reach the warning areas tonight. No damages or fatalities have been reported yet, but I would expect to see some coming out soon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:10, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * A lot of activites were cancelled in advance of Arthur. These included a Boston Pops concert and the Stan Rogers Folk Festival. An EF1 tornado touchdown was reported in Duplin County, 44,000 customers are without power, and storm surges of three to six feet inundated some coastal regions. Much of northern North Carolina received up to eight inches of rain. You can see more impact information here. Also, I would like to point out Arthur's formation does not imply we are going to have an active season at all. Storms that form in the region Arthur did off the U.S. East Coast are random events and usually mean nothing for a season's total activity (see 1968 and 1997 as examples). Also, the Main Development Region (MDR) SST's are near average and will very likely not contribute to an active season. I personally see a below average tropical cyclone season coming our way for the Atlantic. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:23, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, we'll probably have another piece of sh!t season in the Atlantic for 2014, even though it's already producing a stronger storm than all of 2013's weaklings. I can't wait for the 2015 season to come already! Hopefully that season will be more active. Anyways, hopefully Arthur won't cause a huge damage toll once it's all said and done.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:43, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * I have to agree Andrew, Even though I hope the 0 death count stays that way, Arthur isn't done yet and could cause deaths over in New England and Canada, I don't know where Dylan lives but due to all the comments its obvious he is (or was) in the path of Arthur, either way, stay safe! leeboy100 (talk) 22:30, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, I guess it's not nearly a stronger repeat of Arthur '96, but the good news is the worst surge struck at low tide, and it wasn't over land for very long. Pretty unfortunate night for the folks in Cape Cod, but it should zip right on by really fast. And yes, for the first time in 6 years, we didn't get a ginormous category 2 landfall (which counts as "major" in my book regarding impacts). Humberto '07 was also a small U.S. landfalling hurricane, but a very surprising one at that. Anyways, Arthur washed out a few bridges and knocked out a lot of power on the outer banks, but this was no Isabel or Fran, hell it wasn't even like Bertha (which moved inland to cause heavy flooding as well). Hard to find a good analogy for Arthur...maybe Diana '84 (without the Omar-like explosion)? Eh either way, it wasn't too severe. Neoguri in WPac worries me a lot more atm. Latest JTWC forecast on that one takes it up to a cat 5 in Okinawa. D: Ryan1000 01:44, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * The eye feature of Arthur has disappeared and dry air is beginning to infiltrate the system. Based on SMFR data, Arthur's intensity is now at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h)/976 mbar (hPa; 28.82 inHg). Arthur should continue to move northeastwards, but eventually slow down after leaving the influence of the trough. The hurricane's extratropical transition will be complete in ~12 hours and winds should drop below gale-force in ~96 hours. Gale-force winds should arrive in Maine tonight, as well as the heavy surf reaching Canada. Hopefully, Arthur is no worse for them than it was for the Carolinas. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:51, July 5, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur
Declared post-tropical at the 8am interim advisory. 55 kts/983 mbar. Curious to see if NHC will do what they did with Andrea and continue advisories until Arthur is out of the picture altogether, or if they'll do what they did with Sandy and end advisories at 11am. And for what it's worth, Arthur actually was not a bad storm for my area at all. I live northwest of Boston, so all I got was some rain, and not enough to cause flooding (unlike what the New Bedford area got...). Thank you for your concern, everyone! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:07, July 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * ...and, that's a wrap. 50 kts, 983 mbar at the final NHC advisory. Canadian Hurricane Centre still issuing statements. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:00, July 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Luckily it wasn't too bad for you. Bye, Arthur! Hopefully it wasn't very damaging for the Carolinas & the east coast. Now I'm going to focus more on Neoguri in the WPac...-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:29, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Winds remain at 100 km/h (60 mph, 50 knots) per the Canadian Hurricane Centre with a pressure of 979 mbar (hPa; 28.91 inHg). Tropical storm warnings are in effect for New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. Under the influence of a frontal system, ex-Arthur should track into the Gulf of St. Lawrence tonight. Hurricane-force gusts are causing many reported power outages and downed trees, which should spread to Quebec and Newfoundland by tomorrow morning. Rainfall rates of 1.5 cm per hour totaling to 5-10 cm could be witnessed in western New Brunswick and eastern Quebec. Waves of five to seven meters, even nine meters, are pounding the Nova Scotia coast. Newfoundland and the rest of Atlantic Canada should continue to prepare, as Arthur is not done yet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:04, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Arthur has now officialy died, and I can stay positive because there has been no deaths or injuries and damage was minimal. Arthur was an interesting storm to track, and was stronger than Humberto was (which was the strongest hurricane last year) and this is only the first storm.    leeboy100 (talk) 14:44, July 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here is a summary of what Arthur did to Canada. Also, Leeboy, Arthur's ACE of 6.8075 units is more than all of last year's storms except Humberto! That is quite an accomplishment, sir! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:35, July 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * And I say, hey! (Hey!) What a horrible kind of day! Arthur has gone! Waaaaah, my aardvark died. And King Arthur was a fun storm to track, despite the havoc he caused during the 4th of July. Anyway, Humberto is giving him a lesson on stamina.
 * Humberto: So, Arthur Read. You are a Category 2 hurricane but you failed to keep up with the ACE? I am a Category 1 (well, almost a 2, lol) and I produced an ace number of energy! Cool huh? So, I'm here to teach you for next time!
 * Arthur: Uhh, yeah, so what do I do?
 * Humberto: Don't go running up and down coastal areas for too long!
 * Arthur: B-but... the high pressure was fat-
 * Humberto: But the high pressure keeps everyone happy! They'll smile for longer too! They like sunny weather, you know? High pressure equals lovely weather to keep everyone cheerful, plus they'll get a nice tan! (Well, not overtly tanned like Katie Price. She's a carrot!) Anyway, if you try to barge into the high pressure, well, guess what happens next!
 * Arthur: HORRIBLE WEATHER! OH, WHY DID I DO THIS? :(
 * Humberto: You've made poor DW cry. (hugs DW)
 * Arthur: AAAAAAAH!
 * Humberto: My name is Humberto (Hello!)
 * And I am here to say (No more horrible weather!)
 * I'm gonna make you smile and I
 * Will brighten up your day
 * It does matter if (What?)
 * A hurricane passes land (Oh no!)
 * Cause cheering up my friends is just what Humberto's here to do
 * Cause I love to make you smile, smile, smile,
 * Yes I do
 * It fills my heart with sunshine all the while
 * Yes it does
 * Cause all I really need's a smile, smile, smile,
 * From these happy friends of mine.
 * I want to see high pressure,
 * Next time you're over land.
 * Cause if you don't do that,
 * You'll make all my friends frown-
 * Arthur: I KNOW! I DON'T WANT AN EXCEEDINGLY HIGH ACE! STRENGTH MATTERS, NOT STAMINA!
 * -So that's what happened in the lecture room at St Humberto's University.-  “i liek turtlez 22:14, July 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, these are some great ideas Liz! Anyways, Arthur is completely dead now, it has caused a total of 0 deaths and minimal damage, these tolls are much lower than I expected. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:14, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Damage reports from Arthur are at $1.9 million (2014 USD). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:04, July 9, 2014 (UTC)