Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season

AoI: East of Nicaragua
An area of disorganized convection is showing some vague potential for development. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:08, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * You just found the future Georgette. Moving to the EPAC forum as it will likely develop there. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:31, August 25, 2010 (UTC)
 * Wow, a LOT of the models like this for Georgette. --Patteroast 22:52, August 26, 2010 (UTC)
 * On the TWO now. Hello! Is anyone here! Am I talking to the wall? YE Tropical Cyclone  16:23, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * In fact you are talking to the wall. :P I saw this when Danielle was Cat 1, and Earl hadn't formed yet... See how reliable models can be? atomic 77 32 16:28, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Lets hope we get an interesting storm that impacts land and get more media coverage than the Atlantic. YE Tropical Cyclone  16:50, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Face it, EPAC storms aren't memorable, and rarely have major impacts. With Earl and Fiona ready to Fujiwhara with it, Georgette is gonna be foregot just like Frank and almost every storm that ever existed in the EPAC. atomic 77 32 17:49, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Lol. YE Tropical  Cyclone  18:15, August 28, 2010 (UTC)
 * Uh... let's NOT hope that there's a disasterous land impact in the EPac, or anywhere else. Even for the purpose of getting attention. :P Personally, I like to track storms to see how organized systems can form out of the chaos and what they do from there... not just to watch thousands of people die. In that sense, EPac's a good basin to watch. As for this system, it's not invest'd yet, but I think it will be. Still at 10% from NHC. --Patteroast 05:29, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * True. 20% now. YE Tropical  Cyclone  14:13, August 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * 30% now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone  12:53, August 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * I'm continually surprised that this isn't an invest yet. Models are still pretty consistently making this Georgette. --Patteroast 06:49, August 31, 2010 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
There we go, finally invested. At 40%, although there's not much but random thunderstorms and potential at the moment. --Patteroast 00:17, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Up to 60% now. --Patteroast 13:10, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Really starting to develop now. 80% risk. --Patteroast 18:06, September 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still holding at 80%. --Patteroast 16:37, September 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * 90%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Aaaand back down to 70%. --Patteroast 03:35, September 3, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten-E
Hey, it's formed. But it's not forecast to make storm strength. Hm. --Patteroast 13:16, September 3, 2010 (UTC)


 * Going poof. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:57, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't even say it's going poof so much as there was never enough there to poof in the first place. :P Oh well... you snooze you lose, 10E. Looks like 11E may become Georgette instead. --Patteroast 01:43, September 4, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Gulf of Tehuantepec
Another huge bunch of storms behind 94E, up on NHC at low (10%) risk. They do not sound enthusiastic about it. --Patteroast 03:37, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * 20% now. --Patteroast 13:17, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Medium risk. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:00, September 3, 2010 (UTC)

95.E Invest
Invested. Medium risk. If it forms it is article time. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:00, September 3, 2010 (UTC)


 * Special Two!

UPDATED...GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 * hip hip Horray! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:29, September 3, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Offical now! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:48, September 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Yikes. Tropical storm warnings issued. Looks like 10E took too long and 11E's going to be Georgette. Should be a brief storm, but as we've seen before, storms dumping lots of rain on this region can be devastating... --Patteroast 01:42, September 4, 2010 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Right now, based on Agatha's death update (146), I want to give it a 95-100% chance of retirement. Does anyone else have guesses on Agatha's chances? 98.206.70.2 22:35, May 31, 2010 (UTC)
 * It certainly would look like a good bet, but EPac retirements are so rare and all-over-the-map that I'm not willing to give even Agatha more than a 50% chance. It's certainly deserving, though. --Patteroast 17:09, June 21, 2010 (UTC)

Why not? This storm is NOT like Alma 2 years ago, which, IMO, had virtually NO chance of retirement. Agatha, on the other hand, is like an EPac Allison, the THIRD most destructive EPac storm on record, as well as the 5TH deadliest. That's bad enough for me.98.206.70.2 02:37, June 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's not so much that I think that Agatha's not worthy of retirement... it absolutely is, and should be retired. It's just, looking at the list of retired EPac storms, I don't feel entirely confident that retirement choices will make any sense. Then again, I hope I'm wrong. Most of the really bad misses were a couple decades ago. --Patteroast 08:15, June 22, 2010 (UTC)

Well, I can cope with you on that. Fico, Fefa, Knut, and Iva(prob. retired to avoid confusion with Iwa), were all retired for unknown causes. However, Agatha will be retired by the same standards as storms like Pauline and Iniki were. Other storms, like 2002's Kenna, were retired, but Lane in 2006 wasn't, for 2x the damage, too. But Agatha is NOT Kenna or Lane. It's a big league storm, and it's an obvious case on retirement. The WMO will probrably be serious on Agatha just like they were on Allison in the Atlantic, and some less destructive Pacific examples like say, 2008's Alma and 1995's Isamel. 98.206.70.2 03:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * Hope you're right! --Patteroast 05:16, June 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * I think Agatha will be retired. YE 00:27, August 7, 2010 (UTC)


 * Here is my predictions

Agatha 86% what in the check happened here, the forth deadly storms in Guatemala history, for such a weak storm it killed 199 people

Blas 1% fishspinner

Celia 28% Cat 5, minor damage, Ioke got retired, should not be on the list in the first place.

Darby 3% probably not

YE 13:23, August 7, 2010 (UTC)

Mine: (I'm the 98 guy just above, but with a username now)


 * Agatha - 95-100% - being the 3rd costliest, 6th, possibly 5th, deadliest in the East Pacific's history, as well as the costliest in Guatemala's history - yes, it was worse than Stan and Mitch, I cannot see why Agatha won't be retired.


 * Blas - 0% - total fishspinner, did nothing to no one.


 * Celia - 0% - Sorry, YE, but storms aren't retired for setting records, a la Bertha and Marco. Ioke did wipe out Wake Island, which is the reason behind its retirement.


 * Darby - 0% - Almost hit central America, but still, never affected land.


 * Estelle - 0% - still out there, but probrably will be a fishspinner, can't see it affecting land.

Ryan1000 02:39, August 8, 2010 (UTC)

So far, these are my predictions:


 * Agatha: 68% - I think it should be retired, but, well, EPAC retirements are unpredictable. $1 Billion and a load of deaths, for me, that's retirable.


 * Blas: 0% - *yawn*


 * Celia : 0% - Although a very rare June Cat 5, it is a fish in my book, well, although it hit some islands people have almost never heard of. In fact, I'll put Celia on my Hurricane Hall of Fail for its rapid weakening.


 * Darby: 0% - Other than being the earliest 2nd major hurricane, what did it do?


 * Estelle: 0% - See Blas

<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:51, August 8, 2010 (UTC)


 * Celia is not an epic fail. It was suppost to weaken rapidly. Darren, you might wonna learn the definition of an epic fail. Colin is an example of one so is Bonnie.YE 04:01, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Not "epic", but a fail nonetheless IMO. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 04:23, August 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * I give Frank a 3% chance of retirement. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical  <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:28, August 29, 2010 (UTC)

Mid-season Predictions
What are you mid-season predictions. I think we will end up being 10-6-5. YE 04:06, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Only 10 storms? I say 19 storms, 10 of which become hurricanes, and 3 become major. Atomic7732 17:12, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * It almost the peak of hurricane season BTW. Remember last year we had 20 storms in a strong El Nino. We are in a La Nina. YE 14:55, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * No way! I thought they both were supposed to just start up right now! Storm after storm after storm! The trends look like that for the Atlantic at least. Atomic7732 16:57, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * You may never know, thats what happen last year. YE 18:42, August 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I can't say for sure; I still remember at about this time last year about the talk I had with SkyFury (I'm also "76") about the deadened basins worldwide. Like what I said last year, that active hot streak that started in 1995 is probrably closing up. The Atlantic has had nothing since Alex. The East Pacific had the highest June ACE on record, only to fall just as drastically last month to be the first time since 1966 when July was completely dead there. And the West Pacific? Like, are you kidding me? 3 JMA named storms as of now? And I thought 2009 was quiet enough. I think the final stats for the Atlantic will be 5-12 storms, 4-6 hurricanes, and 1-3 majors. In the East Pacific, I think it'll be 8-13 storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors(with at least Agatha being retired). And the West Pacific, if they keep up on their dead streak, are probrably gonna get 14-21 storms, 7-11 typhoons, and 4-6 reaching category 3 or higher. I think we are in a 1977 period now, and it will remain that way for the next year or so. Then, the Pacific will go on a BIG hot streak for about two more decades or so, and the cycle goes on. Outside of the occasional ENSO event in the Pacific (1997/2006), everything has been quiet here. 98.206.70.2 03:52, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Um, actually, ATL was pretty average to slightly above, so by no means (this is La Nina, its expected) that ATL is dead, and by no means are we gonna see a 77 repeat. The EPAC spree was just an early season anomaly, probably getting some optimal environmental conditions (IIRC, Upward MJO). My predictions for EPAC are a 2007-type season, and I think it is possible for ATL to get to 15+ considering that it is La Nina. My predictions for WPAC are about at <25 storms.<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * After some thought, I'll revise my prediction to, 14 storms (counting TD's), 6 hurricanes, 3 major. Atomic7732 04:23, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * It will be intresting, but remember after July the basins woke up especially the EPAC and then the WPAC. You many never know. I agree the activity cyclone is almsot ending. This is going to be our last La Nina starting 2012 expect a storm El Nino an the EPAC to have 25 named storms or so. The ALT season will turn dead, WPAC will get a little more active. YE 12:53, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * YE, I think the active years should go on for a bit more time than you think. Maybe appx 5-10 years due to Global Warming, and I predict we should see about a few more La Nina episodes.<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 14:10, August 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * I personally dont believe in global Warming/Climate Change. But again only time will tell. YE 14:24, August 5, 2010 (UTC)