Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season/October

October
Since it's already October, I'm going to add this section right here. The Atlantic is sleepy and limited the tropical cyclones in this basin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:07, October 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * I archived the September section just so you know. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:03, October 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Even though there's nothing right now, you can't rule out something big in October, as we've seen in many of the more recent seasons. Also, according to the NHC's monthly weather summary for September, this season racked up more ACE in September than any other month on record, well eclipsing the previous record in September 2004, and so far, only 2004 and 1933 had more ACE than this year does so far. However, many of the seasons with higher ACE totals overall ended up having quite a bit of ACE due to strong late-season storms and that could very well happen with this year too, so we still can't let our guard down. Ryan1000 20:30, October 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Western Caribbean
Marked on the TWO with a 0/20 chance of development. The Atlantic doesn't want to quiet down. - Garfield (02/10/17)


 * It sure doesn't. Thankfully due to its broad nature and land interaction this shouldn't get too strong. Both the GFS and ECMWF forecast a northwestern Florida landfall, though they disagree on speed and intensity. Generally, landfall is a week away. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:52, October 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Potential-Nate looks like it could follow a path northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. I believe that a northwestern Florida landfall is the most likely scenario at this moment. This system could be one to watch for if the GOM ends up being very favorable... SSTs are warm, although I'm not sure about how wind shear or dry/stable air might affect it in the long run. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:38, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * SST's are warmer in the NW Caribbean than the southern GOM, but there's 30-50 mph wind shear over the GOM right now, and it's not expected to settle much over the next few days, so this doesn't have a good chance of development for the time being, if at all. If this was in a more favorable shear environment, it could be much worse. However, the month has barely begun, and if shear settles down in the region later on in October or November, it's entirely possible we could see one more strong storm before this horribly destructive season ends for good. Let's just hope that if another strong storm does form, it doesn't hit a populated area; a worst-case scenario for this late time of year would be a Tampa bay hurricane; the 1921 storm, which was the last major hurricane to directly hit the city, didn't form until October 20. Ryan1000 04:14, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:23, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

Both the Euro and GFS see this developing within a 96 hour time-frame and this will probably be a hurricane once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico and could according to models be a Category 1-2 that threatens the US Gulf Coast anywhere from NOLA to Tallahassee. Worth noting that a lot of the models have underestimated the strength of systems this year. Should watch this system closely could be the late season major everyone is worried about although I doubt this would get to Cat 4-5 a 3 cannot be ruled out based on GoM SST. --Whiplash (talk) 18:07, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Woah, this jumped up faster than I thought it would, I didn't think a circulation could form as far south as Panama; it seemed to be forming farther north near the Yucatan earlier. The tropics are full of surprises it seems...This is now up to 40/60. Shear in the western Caribbean is expected to be almost non-existent for the next 3 or more days and this could explode in the northwestern Caribbean if it makes it there; both of the global models expect this to move into a landfall in Nicaragua and slowly restrengthen to a hurricane, maybe a strong one, before hitting Louisiana and moving over New Orleans (GFS) or recurving east to Panama City (Euro), kinda like Hurricane Ida did in November 2009. However, if this misses making landfall in Nicaragua and moves straight north to the northwestern Caribbean, which Ida '09 failed to do, then a cat 4 or 5 is very possible from this, given how favorable conditions are for RI in the NW Caribbean. The strong shear in the central to southern Gulf could either weaken it quite a bit before it hits the north Central Gulf Coast, or recurve it eastward towards a landfall on western Florida without wearing it down too much. If the latter happens, hopefully it's not near Tampa, the U.S. has seen more than enough destruction this year. All that aside, this is now Invest 90L and could become Nate over the next day or two. Ryan1000 19:37, October 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * I just checked out the TWO and thought this was a separate system. Surprising that it seems to be developing near Panama when it initially seemed to be forming near the Yucatan. Anyhow, this is looking very concerning in the long run and Central America, Yucatan, and especially the Gulf Coast need to watch out. We have had way too much devastation this year. Future-Nate, stay below major hurricane status please! D: ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:01, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

Well, this is a system I'm going to have to watch for. Just checked the Euro model on this. If the Euro model pans out, my area will get a direct hit from this. I live in the area between Gulf Breeze and Navarre Florida, which is very close to Pensacola. The last time we've had a direct hit from a hurricane was Dennis. I hope that Future-Nate is nowhere near as bad.Not just for my area, but for the Gulf Coast, I hope things aren't too bad. We've had enough destruction this season. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:39, October 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Plz no major hurricane. We don't want more damage. Anyway, it's up to 50/70. This is yet another storm to watch. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:01, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * While models generally take future Nate towards the central Gulf coast, be aware that the ECMWF (Euro) ensemble presents several other options, most towards Florida from the panhandle as far south as Fort Myers. You know that feeling I got with Harvey, Irma, and Maria? It's coming back with this one. As a Tampa resident, and like Ryan said above, I hope to god that even in this year of all years that we don't get a hit here. We are the most vulnerable city in the United States and the 7th most vulnerable in the world. I'm keeping an eye on it but the consensus is west of Florida at this time with a majority of the model guidance otherwise, and tightly clustered over Louisiana/Central Gulf Coast. Since it is 5 days out there can still be huge changes in the track so I'm watching it closely. There's a chance the Bahamas disturbance gets much stronger unexpectedly and erodes the ridge allowing 90L to go much further east, but it has not pulled off anything like that yet.  Owen 04:09, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70/80, Nate is coming...this isn't looking good. Irma, as bad as it was for Florida, could've been a worst-case scenario for U.S. damage from a major hurricane if it hit Miami as a cat 5 and later Savannah, Georgia as a cat 4, like it was originally forecast to do, but thankfully, it didn't do that, and instead hit near the same area as Wilma did in 2005. While Irma was still very destructive, damage was much less than what Tampa or Miami would've seen if Irma hit either of those cities directly. Tampa may be in the path of another strong storm if Nate-to be explodes in the NW Caribbean, hopefully this doesn't do that, but mother nature really hasn't been kind to the U.S. this season, so we can't rule anything out, as bad as it could be. Ryan1000 10:24, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 90/90, expected to form within the next 24 hours, and recon will arrive in about 6 hours' time. Nate is coming. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:19, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sixteen
From the NHC's site - "Special Message from NHC Issued 4 Oct 2017 14:02 UTC  NHC will initiate advisories at 11 AM EDT on Tropical Depression Sixteen, currently located over the Southwestern Caribbean Sea." Seriously, with the damage being in excess of $262 billion (per Wikipedia), why can't the Atlantic take a break from these destructive cyclones? 182.58.99.196 14:25, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

I knew it looked too good to be an invest. If this intensifies into Nate and becomes a hurricane, it'll be our ninth straight hurricane. Major hurricane status isn't out of the question either. NHC forecasts a Category 1 Hurricane moving ashore on the Florida panhandle. - Garfield


 * You guys beat me to it. Anyways, t he NHC will begin issuing advisories on 16L/Nate at 11 AM EDT. I feel like this is going to be another destructive hurricane. But it's too early to say that it's going down as a damaging hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * @Garfield: While major hurricane status is possible I think that the max potential effects from this thing in the U.S. would be as a low-end Cat 3 I've seen some people saying oh this could be a 4 or a 5 but I actually don't think the temperatures in the GoM could sustain a storm of this kind of intensity at the moment. We of course cannot rule out the potential for RI over the Western Caribbean as many storms in the past have done. However, I don't see future Nate as being another Cat 4 threat to the U.S. most likely will be a strong Cat 1 or Cat 2 upon landfall which could potentially be damaging but shouldn't be super-destructive. --Whiplash (talk) 15:43, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sixteen is currently forecast to reach minimal hurricane strength and then hit the Florida Panhandle as it rapidly weakens.12.144.5.2 16:35, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * The discussion mentions that rapid intensification is a possibility as it moves over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. So that intensity forecast by the NHC may be conservative. It seems likely we could be looking at another major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. To-be Nate might go as far as to be our 4th real retirement candidate of the year, unfortunately. Let's all hope that it remains below major hurricane status, as we have had way too much devastation this year. I'm particularly worried for Leeboy, who lives directly in the path of to-be Nate. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:40, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

A few thoughts:


 * 1) The Euro and GFS once again can't seem to agree. They have a current landfall disagreement of ~250 miles. That is a huge discrepancy and I tend to think that the Euro is on the right track here.


 * 1) Euro has it making landfall at 960mb. That is scary, because with the way this season has gone, you can almost assume that the actual low pressure will be 10-20 mb lower than what was forecasted 3-4 days out. If this thing gets in the 950s or even worse 940s, we may be dealing with another catastrophic hit.


 * 1) Interaction with Central America and the Yucatan along with strong shear near the gulf coast and a deep trough, could lead to a tropical storm landfall. On the other hand, there is a chance that there is minimal landfall interaction, the trough pushes north and shear moves out, and Nate blows up in the Gulf with the potential of dropping 20-30 mb in less than 24 hours in the gulf.


 * 1) So many questions yet to be answered, everything at this point is speculation until it clears the Yucatan. One thing is for sure though, a named system will make landfall this weekend.

Also, I found something quite interesting. The track of the 1921 Tampa hurricane is almost identical to where TD16 formed, and all the way up until the predicted landfall point (where the forecast takes it into the panhandle). Owen 19:52, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

This is scaring me. It's heading straight towards me, and the NHC is saying that there's a chance that this could rapidly intensify. The good news is, where I live, people are actually already starting to prepare. A neighbor down the street from me has gotten his old storm shutters out. (I know they're old, because written on the shutters are "Go away Ivan Dennis.") We've seen what Harvey did by rapidly intensifying before landfall, and are not taking any chances. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:03, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * I mentioned before that RI in the northwestern Caribbean to cat 4 or stronger intensity could happen with this, but only if it misses making landfall in Central America, and fortunately the current NHC forecast for TD 16 does not expect this to miss making landfall in Central America, like Ida of 2009. Because of that, interaction with the mountainous terrain of CA should slow this down and disrupt the small circulation of this enough to keep it from RI'ing in the Caribbean; Ida '09 was lucky enough to reach Cat 2 intensity in the region after her small circulation was heavily disrupted after moving over Nicaragua, but shear was also lower for Ida at the time. Today, shear is currently very hostile over the GoM and has all but ripped apart the near 0% AOI near the Florida Keys right now, and unless it settles down over the next few days, between interaction with Central America and shear over the Gulf, this may not get very strong; the late-forecast period of the cone only makes this a cat 1 in Panama City or so, which wouldn't be that bad. EDIT: Whiplash, it's not that SST's aren't warm in the GOM, they're actually pretty favorable, but wind shear is so hostile for devlopment that nothing can form; shear is currently at 30-50 mph in the southeast GOM and the AOI near the keys is just about dead because of it. Shear in the NW Caribbean is almost non-existent, but even slight interaction with the mountains of CA can seriously disrupt the circulations of small cyclones like TD 16. Ida of 2009 was forecast to be a cat 5 by some of the models if it missed Central America, but fortunately that didn't happen, hopefully what happened to Ida will happen to this too. Ryan1000 20:26, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * @Ryan: Thanks for the input. I'm not trying to imply that temperatures are cold they are still favorable for maintaining a strong tropical cyclone however they are not the same temperatures we saw in front of Irma and Maria earlier in the year and won't sustain a large hurricane of Cat 4-5 for long, especially as you have noted above due to the unfavorable wind shear environment and also I doubt the outflows from this system will be that good either. That was what I was trying to imply not that the temperatures aren't conducive for a tropical cyclone. They are but not for a strong tropical cyclone with other criteria factored in. If these were like the temperatures we saw earlier in the year I would say a 4 or 5 would be possible but I really don't think so in this circumstance, but we will see how the atmospheric dynamics evolve as this system gets closer to the GoM. --- Edit: Also just reread your post and I think you seem to think I'm saying RI to a Cat 4/5 is not possible in the Caribbean. I think it is possible however I don't see this kind of strength being maintained in the GoM should it happen. I still think a worst-case scenario from this thing for the U.S. would be as a low end Cat 3. With most likely impacts being in the Cat 1-Cat 2 range. --Whiplash (talk) 21:03, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hopefully land interaction with CA and the Yucatan stop this thing from exploding by the time it gets into the Gulf. The shear in the GOM should also hopefully stop any major intensification. But knowing how this season has gone, I won't be too surprised if it tries to avoid the land and we get yet another devastating beast. I doubt this will become anything more than C3 though due to the factors mentioned above, unless it tries to miss the land obstacles in its path leading to the GOM. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:50, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I agree, hopefully we won't see an RI in the Gulf. I doubt that this will be a major, hopefully. Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:39, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This storm appears to be getting its act together fairly well in the latest sattelite loops and it appears to be taking a slight northward jog, RI isn't out of the question, but it depends on how close it gets to Central America. If the NHC is right on this and it hits Central America (hopefully they are), then this probably won't get too strong in the Caribbean, since, like I mentioned before, even slight interaction with the mountains can seriously impact small cyclones like this one. As far as I'm concerned, SST's weren't exactly record-warm with Irma and Maria earlier this year Whiplash, just above-normal, but because those two storms had virtually no wind shear or dry air in their path, let alone land interaction, they got to be as strong as they were. This does have some shear to deal with down the road when it reaches the southern GOM, and it does have Central America to deal with before it reaches the NW Caribbean, but it could still become a cat 2-3 hurricane down the road. If Central America wasn't in the path of this thing, then I can only imagine how strong this could get before reaching the GOM. Ryan1000 02:37, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * @Ryan: I'm pretty sure the SST in front of Irma were exceptionally toasty some places in the 30-31 range before the Bahamas right now most of the GoM is about 28-29 and with the other invest going to move across I'm sure it will be cooler by a degree once this system gets there. I'm not sure as much about the SST with Maria but again the conditions were far more favorable than they will be with this system. Will be interesting to see how it develops none the less. --Whiplash (talk) 02:43, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh I know SST's were very warm in front of Irma, but as warm as they were, they were not at their warmest values ever recorded, and in either instance, Irma (and later Maria) had little to no unfavorable shear or dry air in her path, which this storm does have to deal with. NHC does state in the 11 PM discussion that their intensity forecast is uncertain with this storm when it reaches the NW Caribbean, but it all depends on how much Nicaragua and Honduras wear down the circulation of this. Since this is a compact cyclone, I believe that interaction with the coastal mountains of the two countries will wear this down considerably, enough to keep it from blowing up too much in the NW Caribbean, but it's still too soon to tell for sure. If it strengthens more than the current forecast anticipates in the NW Caribbean, then a turn east sooner and towards Florida is more likely, as the 00Z Euro indicates. The GFS, however, doesn't indicate much strengthening in the NW Caribbean after interacting with CA and takes it over the Yucatan and into Louisiana as a tropical storm. I personally think a landfall there is too far west, but it would be a best-case scenario for this regarding impacts, hopefully the GFS is right this time. Ryan1000 03:40, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed, the GFS needs to be correct this time. It would be nice if Nate stays respectfully weak and gets torn apart by Honduras and Nicaragua, enough for it to kinda struggle in the upcoming favorable conditions in the NW Caribbean. I've absolutely had enough of devastation, and so has everyone else here (unless you're psychopathic :P). This TD should intensify to be named overnight. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:03, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Still no Nate. It seems unlikely that it will get named before landfall, so we probably have a bit longer to wait - Garfield

Tropical Storm Nate
I'll eat my words. NHC just called Nate. - Garfield


 * Not likely to get much stronger before moving over Honduras and Nicaragua later today. Due to his small circulation, there's even an outside chance Nate might temporarily dissipate over the mountains. Landfall location for the Gulf has shifted westward towards Louisiana/Mississippi. Maybe the GFS wasn't too crazy for calling a landfall that far west after all. Ryan1000 12:21, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I absolutely hope that it won't be another destructive storm. I had seen enough of destruction for one year. And really Atlantic? You're producing such destructive hurricanes for the year? Stop producing destruction in... well, anywhere in this basin Atlantic! Or else...umm... I will watch only in the Pacific, your ocean enemy, right? Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Bad news. It is being confirmed that there have already been 15 deaths from Nate in Nicaragua. We now have another deadly storm on our hands. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:55, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 17, this could be our next retirement candidate if this keeps up. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:03, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Scratch what I just said. 22 deaths in Central America. Nate is already worse than I expected. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:38, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * The thing with Nate is that is crossing the least montainous terrain Honduras have. The moskitia coast and the Gracias a Dios department of Honduras is the flattest part of the country so Nate will not be severely disrupt as many thing. I live in Honduras and so far we havent get much rain, compare to our neighbors, Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica. People in Costa Rica are calling this storm worse than Mitch and Cesar as flooding have been extreme in the country, if current trends continue I dont doubt Costa Rica or Nicaragua asking for retirement, as the death toll is expect to increase. Allan Calderini. AllanCalderini21 (talk) 21:16, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Can't believe 22 deaths has already occurred. That's what happens when a tropical system combines with a gyre, I guess. Nate already has at least a small retirement chance because of these deaths. The impacts in the region remind me of Otto from last year, except weaker winds. Nate has been even deadlier in Nicaragua than Otto was. Considering Otto was retired, this could already have a decent chance as well. Anyway, the future of Nate still looks relatively concerning. The SHIPS RI index is still high and it's headed straight for the Gulf Coast. Nate is likely going to be a real troublemaker... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:22, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Even if the terrain this moved over isn't the highest in Honduras or Nicaragua, Nate's small circulation has still been disrupted quite a bit due to that land interaction, and it's unlikely Nate will strengthen very much over the NW Caribbean due to interaction with Honduras and Nicaragua, and a subsquent landfall that will take place over the Yucatan sometime tomorrow night. When Nate reaches the GOM, conditions will be even less favorable than the Caribbean is right now, and while Nate could strengthen to a hurricane in the northern Gulf, currently cat 1 is all the NHC is calling for, it could get a bit stronger than that but not much. If this didn't hit Central America and stayed over the open waters into the NW Caribbean it would've been much worse, though it's still a sad story to see over 20 people killed in Central America. If Costa Rica axed Otto last year, then Nate might be a surprisingly good retirement contender as well. Ryan1000 22:31, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I doubt this will become a major anymore. At most, Nate could approach C2 status due to interaction with CA and the Yucatan. Latest intermediate advisory keeps Nate at the same winds and pressure. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:51, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nate is almost out of Honduras. I definitely doubt that this will be a major. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:49, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

I've seen pictures on The Weather Channel of really bad flooding in Costa Rica. Nate now looks like he also has a chance at retirement. So, I think it's safe to say that Harvey, Irma, and Maria are guaranteed retirement. However, if Nate is also retired after this season, that right there would bring the retired names up to 4. Which is second-highest amount of names retired in a single season, tying 1955, 1995, and 2004, and it would be the highest number of retired names since 2005. There is also a teeny-tiny chance that Don could also be axed (or fired) due to political reasons, though that seems extremely unlikely. If Don goes too, which again, now seems incredibly unlikely, that will bring the total up to 5. Which ties the record set by 2005 for most names retired. What a crazy season this has been. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 01:14, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * If Nate get retired, we'll have two pairs of consecutive retired names: Harvey and Irma, and Maria and Nate. Hurricane Fred (talk) 01:38, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * This season is already freaking me out. In addition, 1955 had also  two pairs of consecutive retired names (Connie and Diane, Ione and Janet). If all four of the names are retired (Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate), this will be the second occurrence of that. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:18, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * (edit conflict) I was about to point that out 68, yep, 1955 was the only other season to have two pairs of consecutive retirements. Nate is still managing to hold onto TS intensity as it slowly moves over Honduras, but the intensity may be generous for the time being since Nate is under 20 knots of southwesterly shear right now and much of the convection has weakened or died off due to interaction with land. While the shear is expected to weaken tomorrow as Nate moves over the gulf of Honduras towards the Yucatan, interaction with land has put a halt to his organization and I'd be very surprised if Nate becomes a hurricane or so before hitting the Yucatan tomorrow night. Furthermore, the NHC's SHIPS rapid intensification index is surprisingly high over the GOM with this, and the currently predicted 80 mph peak in the gulf could be conservative, though hopefully that's as far as Nate will go. We don't need any more mass destruction this year. Ryan1000 02:27, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

11PM update: No change in strength, eye is still in Honduras but hurricane watches have been issued in Louisiana and tropical storm watches in other parts of the central Gulf Coast. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:05, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

I really think that Nate is bound to be another 2017 overperformer. I hope Nate doesn't try to explode before hitting Louisiana. New Orleans cannot take another major hurricane. As I see it, Nate looks bound to be a Cat 2/3 before landfall if the trends continue - he's getting a taste of that warm Caribbean untapped water now and wind shear is starting to drop. Owen 05:40, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

Nate has just emerge from the Honduran coast and its already strengthening. Looks like Yucatan might get a cat 1 landfall if current trends continues. I guess Nate was stronger than thought when it made landfall over Nicaragua as it has not weaken anything. AllanCalderini21 (talk) 05:54, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nate is beginning to pick up speed as it heads north-northwest, he was moving at only 7 mph yesterday, now that speed has doubled to 14 mph and he's expected to move even faster as time goes on and be in the GOM as soon as tonight or tomorrow morning. That's why there are already hurricane watches in effect for the gulf coast, because he's going to be moving faster. While moving faster means Nate has less time to intensify, it also means that shear may lose its grip on Nate. While I was fearing a cat 4-5 worst-case scenario with Nate earlier on, it doesn't look like Nate has enough time to get that strong by now, due to land interaction and his increasing forward speed. I'd be surprised if Nate doesn't become at least a cat 1 hurricane however. Ryan1000 09:45, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

Now caused at least 34 deaths: 15 in Nicaragua, 8 in Costa Rica, 7 in Panama, 3 in Honduras, and 1 in El Salvador. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 14:23, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nate will be a minimal hurricane at most before making landfall at Louisiana. Intensity is up to 45 mph/996 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:26, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 50 mph. Pressure unchanged. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:52, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 60 mph/993 mbars. This is getting its act together and could be a hurricane when it reaches the GOM. The NHC still says in the discussion that RI is possible, but I doubt it will reach C2 or higher. A major is almost definitely out of the question, thankfully. The 34 deaths in Central America is totally saddening. It's more deaths than even Otto last year. Nate probably already has as high as a ≥50% chance of retirement due to impacts in Central America alone. Overall, Nate could go after this year as it still has the Yucatan and the Gulf Coast in its cone. A hurricane warning is issued for southeastern Louisiana, and the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines BTW. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:53, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nate is really haulin' ass thanks to the monsoon jet in his proximity and is moving extremely fast for a storm in this region of the basin. Does anyone know what the fastest moving tropical system in the Caribbean is? I know storms move really quickly as they move north in the Atlantic but this seems to be quite quick for this region. If Nate somehow misses the Yucatan and RI's in the Gulf this would be a nightmare for NOLA as there would be practically no time to evacuate this thing will be striking them in just over ~24 hours. I still don't think a major is likely for Nate as he is moving to quickly, waters aren't that warm and the monsoon jet should thwart the development of good symmetry for outflow. --Whiplash (talk) 22:49, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh no, recon just found hurricane-force winds. Fred (talk) 23:22, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Don't confuse surface level and flight level TrueDash. Most recent pass suggests winds of 55 knts at surface level on highest reading which is only about 65mph. Not hurricane force yet. :-) --Whiplash (talk) 23:35, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nate has been heading farther north than due west recently and it's looking likey he'll pass through the Yucatan Channel between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, so Nate might not interact with land again before he reaches the gulf coast of the U.S. and he could get stronger, though interaction with Central America has certainly slowed his rate of intensification. Earlier today, Nate's northeastern eyewall was exposed and that led to him only being a minimal tropical storm for most of today; however Nate appears to be getting his act together by now. Still, most of the 125-mile radius of TS force winds are east of the center, and stronger winds are more tightly wound near the center, so Nate could be more prone to weakening due to his small size, but as I mentioned before, his somewhat fast forward movement of 21 mph could be beneficial to intensification as well, since it means shear won't be able to get a hold of him as easily. Regardless, the north central gulf coast from the Panhandle to New Orlenas should watch out. Whiplash, Chantal of July 2013 moved at a blazing 26 mph through the Caribbean sea briefly before it dissipated. If you're looking at stronger storms that weren't short-lived like Chantal, Allen of 1980 moved at a fairly rapid forward speed of 17 to 23 mph while he was racing through the Caribbean in early August. While Nate is moving fairly quickly, this isn't a record for the region. I also recall Wima racing northeast fairly fast as it approached and made landfall in southern Florida in October 2005. Ryan1000 23:42, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Thanks for the info Ryan. I knew Wilma was a fast mover but I thought the fast movement started more after she left the Yucatan and was already in the GoM. Allan is a good example though in the Caribbean. I have always thought of Caribbean systems as slow and lumbering. Onto other commentary now. Nate looks strongly like it will take a very similar route to Katrina in 2005. Intensity will be crucial here to determining ultimate impacts but I still say a strong Cat 1 or weak Cat 2 is most likely intensity for this thing. If it goes any stronger we will have a guaranteed retirement candidate here as a Cat 3 would have extremely severe impacts on this region probably the worst since Katrina herself. --Whiplash (talk) 23:49, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this will be like Katrina. New Orleans better prepare for the hurricane that is coming up. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:55, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nate is up to 65 mph/990 mbars. Well, this won't be anywhere near Katrina's devastation unless a miracle happens and Nate makes landfall as a slow-moving C4+ major, which isn't going to happen (especially the slowing down part). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:01, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * And just as I said that new advisory at 65mph and 990mb. Track also shifting ever so slightly to the east which is good for NOLA and bad news for MS and AL. Storm will also miss the Yucatan in this case too which may aid in getting some additional strengthening. --Whiplash (talk) 23:58, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I should note that New Orlenas has extremely sturdy levees surrounding the city that were built after Katrina hit, and these held their own during Isaac of 2012, which hit on the 7th anniversary of Katrina. While the southern outskirts of the city could get hit harder if Nate comes to a landfall in LA, downtown New Orleans is a lot more prepared now than they were before Katrina hit, and I'd be surprised if Nate winds up being as bad as Katrina. However, Alabama and Mississippi are still vulnerable, and they haven't seen a considerable major hurricane besides Katrina since Dennis/Ivan. But hopefully Nate doesn't become a major hurricane before landfall, because if it does it'll do a ton of damage regardless of preparation, and the north central gulf coast hasn't seen an October major hurricane landfall since Hurricane Opal in 1995, if memory serves. Ryan1000 00:23, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * See the concern I have with this storm is not so much for NOLA as I am totally aware of the new levee system. My concern is with the gulf coasts of MS and AL. We have a very interesting situation setting up with the monsoonal jet that is helping to propel the system which could exaggerate the storm surge effects of Nate. With this kind of dynamic and the coast line we could see very destructive storm surges relative to a storm of this intensity which are extremely concerning. Gulfport, MS and Biloxi, MS should be watching this storm with extreme interest. Edit: Also I like your Opal comparison as this very much could be comparable to that storm with how things are shaping up. --Whiplash (talk) 00:33, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * 70 mph at the new advisory and expected to make landfall with ~85mph winds.12.144.5.2 03:14, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Nate
Special 10:30 CST advisory. Nate has been upgraded to a hurricane. Winds at 75 mph, pressure at 988. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 03:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nate is becoming increasingly worrying for southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi/Alabama coastlines. They better prepare quickly, as Nate is moving fast. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:04, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wow, Nate is already a hurricane and strengthening further and I don't see a trough pulling it NE anytime in the near future. This is no normal convection signature, and it's one of the strongest I've ever seen in this basin. Don't know if that measurement is kept, but this cloud height and temperature are some of the strongest I've seen and rivals the WPAC for convection strength before eyewall development within a storm. The high over the SE in place is not budging. I have a feeling New Orleans/Biloxi/Mobile area will be freaking out big time in the morning...will be the third hurricane to hit continental US this year and expecting to now see a 2/3 at landfall. Owen 04:07, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Deeply concerning developments let us hope RI is not now underway. --Whiplash (talk) 04:23, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wow, I didn't expect Nate to become a hurricane early. Preparations are underway for the hurricane in Louisiana. Nate is currently threatening the Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:56, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Have to say the structure of this thing is disturbingly impressive within the last 2 hours if it eye I would think this was a Cat 3-4 already. --Whiplash (talk)
 * I hope not. A Cat. 1 is enough and I don't want it to be major. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:58, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

Recon showing preliminary surface winds of 75 knts this thing is approaching Cat 2 status and fast pressure appears to be 986 or 985. This is intensifying and fast. Boy the models got the intensity on this thing wrong as did I. I guess this was always a concern if it missed the Yucatan. Environmental conditions are also becoming more favorable a Cat 3 is a very real possibility hitting the Gulf and with conditions and how the structure is coming together I wouldn't even rule out a 4. Here we go again another massively destructive storm incoming. They won't have time to evacuate vulnerable areas either so we better hope those upgraded levees hold as this thing is also speeding up and will be on the U.S. tomorrow night. I'm pretty sure 2017 is already the most expensive season ever but Nate will make sure of it. Retirement number 4 100% incoming. --Whiplash (talk) 05:02, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * From here on out I shall refer to Nate as Katrina V.2... This is getting really ugly and fast. HMON model showing a Cat 3 landfall. --Whiplash (talk) 05:08, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hey Katrina V.2... --Whiplash (talk) 05:13, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hoping Nate doesn't get above C2, though anything is possible now that he has a tight inner core. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:42, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Currently Nate is at 80 mph and 987 mbars and forecast to be 90 mph, but he could pull off a brief round of RI before landfall tomorrow morning, and the folks on the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines should prepare or evacuate quickly today as there is a distinct possibility Nate could become a cat 2 or even 3 before landfall. And we now have 9 consecutive hurricanes, which is one short of tying 1893 and 1886 for the most ever in one season, if we can get one more this season we'll tie the record. Ryan1000 09:31, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

85 mph and 986 mbar. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 12:49, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * New update is in 90mph and 984 mbar expected to be a Cat 2 on landfall in official forecasts now. Also moving at 26mph!!! Wtf Nate calm down. Though this is good as if he will be impacting land earlier should stop him from getting to a 3. --Whiplash (talk) 15:03, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, slow down Nate. This hurricane wants to destroy everything so fast that he is rushing. Really Nate? Give them some time to prepare. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:25, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wonder if it is possible for Nate to become a major hurricane. Not that I want it, just curious. What are the chances? Also, Nate's death toll is now at 36. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 15:30, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Imo, the water levels around Louisiana would suggest Cat 3 as an upper limit for intensity. Thing is since the storm is moving so fast it likely won't be able to get to that strength before landfall. However, especially near Biloxi tonight thanks to the monsoonal jet that has been mentioned several times with this system winds will be stronger than perhaps anticipated and Biloxi should expect lots of gusts in the Cat 3 range some of which have been showing to get up to 123 mph on certain models. Biloxi is going to take a rather large beating and storm surges are now projected to be up to 11 feet in MS. Gulfport and Mobile also will see significant impacts from this thing. Luckily Nate is relatively lopsided with the worst effects on the east so NOLA should not be hit very hard by Nate. Same cannot be said for MS/AL. --Whiplash (talk) 15:43, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nate looking quite similar to the 1906 Mississippi hurricane, albeit smaller and less intense. However, I think it gives a good idea of the potential damage Nate could cause especially along the MS coast. --Whiplash (talk) 16:15, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also fun tidbit according to Brian Brettschneider on Twitter only two storms have had faster movement speeds in the GoM over water than Nate: Hurricane Eloise (1975) and the 1920 Louisiana Hurricane. --Whiplash (talk) 16:22, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

1 PM update, intensity up to 90 mph/982 mbar. I doubt that this will be a Category 2 due to the proximity to land and it's moving fast. In other words, Nate is nearing landfall on Louisiana. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:54, October 7, 2017 (UTC) Edit: Never mind, Nate is slowing down. Just forget the edit.
 * So it's not slowing down? Good. Better not intensify. On an unrelated note, a news station in my country is claiming that Nate is a C2. Weird. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:12, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * That news station should fact-check. Nate is closing in on Louisiana and I hope it won't get too destructive there. C2 is looking very possible right before landfall, and the NHC is forecasting it to strengthen to that category. I would prefer it to stay below C2 though, because the stronger the winds, the worse the wind damage will be upon landfall. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:27, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lets just hope that the random news station in my country is wrong and Nate doesn't become a C2... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:42, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, we should all hope that Nate doesn't reach the C2 status. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:48, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

It's not a C2. New advisory just came out, winds haven't changed. The pressure did go down by 1 millibar, though. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:54, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * So I guess the question is will Nate or won't Nate Cat 2. There is a final round of convection shooting up. See if this pushes it over or not. Either way storm surge gonna cause a mess in MS/AL. --Whiplash (talk) 22:53, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * I highly doubt it. Recon isn't finding anything to support an intensity of 80kt, will probably get reduced to 70 or 75 kt shortly. Kiewii 23:47, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Looks like you were right Kiewii, the 7 PM CDT advisory knocks Nate down to 85 mph and 982 mbars, but even though he failed to reach cat 2, Nate's rapid forward speed means he's probably going to bring heavier impacts than a normal hurricane of this intensity would bring. So this could still be somewhat damaging. Ryan1000 23:55, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nate has made landfall on Louisiana. I'm glad that this wasn't a Cat 2. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:49, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

It is official - Nate has made its first landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River earlier. It's heading towards a second landfall on the Mississippi coast. Storm surge and impacts could be quite intense and life-threatening, and I hope those riding out the storm are safe and staying indoors. Heavy rainfall is spreading to the east of Nate's center and affecting much of the state of Alabama, as well as the Florida Panhandle and Mississippi. The coast of Mississippi is getting hit particularly hard with the worst and most central rainband near Biloxi and Pascagoula. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:58, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Has now made its second landfall. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 05:44, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Eye now north of Biloxi.12.144.5.2 05:58, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's great that Nate didn't become a C2 after all. Still, Nate's chances of being retired are getting higher and higher. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 06:54, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's going to weaken to a TS when it crosses Alabama. Should dissipate in a couple of days. Hi!-68.106.0.77 07:15, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nate (2nd time)
Down to a TS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:51, October 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Weakening rapidly. Winds down to 45 mph. Pressure up to 994. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 13:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nate
35 mph and final NHC advisory issued.12.144.5.2 14:57, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

This is weakening much quicker than I expected. Should dissipate in a day or two. --BeamOfSunlight (talk) 14:59, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

The flooding from Nate in and around the Biloxi area is pretty bad. Obviously not Katrina levels bad, but still bad. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 15:17, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

The future advisories will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:30, October 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nate weakened quicker than I expected. :P Biloxi and surrounding coastlines have gotten pounded by Nate's storm surge, etc. I obviously never expected anywhere near Katrina's devastation due to Nate's quick movement and lesser intensity. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:02, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It doesn't appear Nate was too bad for the gulf coast, this could've been much stronger if Nate didn't make landfall in Central America earlier in his life, but he did, and that slowed him down enough to keep him from getting past category 1 intensity. Ryan1000 19:51, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * I will just wait for the system to dissipate. Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:14, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * ...Which should be soon. The WPC is now issuing advisories, and they forecast Nate to become post-tropical/extratropical in 12 hours. Nate rain is spreading over a wide area from Ohio to Georgia, currently. Doesn't look like the storm ended up too bad and obviously pales in comparison to Harvey, Irma and Maria. Thankfully Nate moved himself into Central America instead of avoiding it. :) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:35, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nate in the Tennessee-Kentucky border. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:23, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nate
Nate has finally dissipated and the NHC has ceased issuing advisories on the storm. The Weather Prediction Center will keep issuing advisories for a few more days, but after that this should dissipate for good. Ryan1000 10:40, October 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * R.I.P. Nate. Thankfully, there's still no reported casualties in the United States. But the amount of deaths and impact in Central America alone could result in a chance of retirement for "Nate". The damage in the United States was quite minor especially compared to three very obvious monsters that struck earlier this season. Tornadoes have been reported in the Carolinas and in areas closer to landfall such as Alabama. I'd have to say that the Gulf Coast has been spared a monstrous hit. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:35, October 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * This storm has caused $2.52 billion in damages. That's more than Isaac. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:29, October 10, 2017 (UTC)

If Otto was retired after causing 10 deaths & $190 million worth of damages in Costa Rica, then Nate may have a greater chance to be retired too: 11 deaths so far and $185 million worth of damages. 45 deaths in total, and $2.5 billion in the U.S. is still a substantial amount. Good riddance, but thankfully Nate wasn't as bad as expected. Still a nasty storm though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Woah, I didn't expect Nate to be that destructive for Costa Rica, Nate may have a near-certain chance of retirement by now, even though he was overshadowed in the U.S. Ryan1000 11:19, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I never expected Nate to be this destructive either. Costa Rica or surrounding countries like Nicaragua is most likely going to ask for the retirement of Nate, and that gives Nate a high chance of being retired next spring. However, in the event that the Central American countries somehow snub it, U.S. damages still shouldn't cut it since they snubbed Isaac and Nate was barely more destructive than Isaac. It was also completely overshadowed in the U.S. and its territories by the three monsters. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:19, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Near Bahamas
Another one near the Bahamas (0/0 on the TWO) but this shouldn't develop at all. Upper-level winds should rip this thing apart. I think it was a waste of time to put this up on the outlook, lol. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:40, October 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 10/10, but likely not going to develop due to strong shear over the GoM. Ryan1000 19:38, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, it would have to defy all odds to become named. Heavy rain will affect Florida and the Bahamas though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:04, October 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back down to 0/0. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:48, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still on the TWO but I definitely doubt that his would form. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:06, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Stu Ostro posted [] on twitter, it appeared that it's more organized.Hurricane Fred (talk) 01:40, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:00, October 6, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Azores
This low pressure is about 900 mi southwest from the Azores. It's at 0/20 right now. It may or may not develop, we'll see. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:40, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I think systems in this region have a tendency to spin up rather rapidly. This might be a candidate for Ophelia. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:24, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be Arlene v2.Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:24, October 5, 2017 (UTC)Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:23, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Intensity-wise I'm hoping this is a Alex 2016 v2. Since this is going to be a fish I'd like the hurricane streak to continue. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:11, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 20/50. --BeamOfSunlight (talk) 18:08, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Potential Ophelia looks like an in-season version of Arlene or Alex. If this became a hurricane we would have 10 hurricanes in a row!!! (Since Nate is almost certainly going to become a hurricane) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:58, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope it to become a hurricane. I don't want it to be a fail like Ramon just did. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:00, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/60. A hurricane would be awesome, but we have had way too many in a row this season. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:04, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 40/60 now. Fred (talk) 05:54, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Invested, 70/70. Ophelia is coming... T G  2 0 1 7 12:02, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like Ophelia today, already. Jdcomix (talk) 13:59, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 70/70 comes with the caveat that the 2-day window is basically all the time it's got before the environment gets hostile...the 5-day chance is all within the 2-day.12.144.5.2 14:36, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * In that case, if this becomes Ophelia then the 9 hurricane streak will be broken. Unless it somehow becomes a hurricane in the 2 (?) days before conditions become worse. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 15:34, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Future Ophelia, well, will mostly stay out to sea. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:49, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't know if this will go as far as to be named "Ophelia". The NHC says that it only has "a day or so" to develop before conditions turn hostile. Hoping it will only be a subtropical TD. Don't want a name wasted like Ramon in the EPac. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:30, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'd also prefer that this isn't named. Mostly just because this probably won't go above tropical storm status, which would break the 9 hurricane streak. I would like to see the 10 hurricane streak record tied this year. Unless, of course, a named storm is about to strike a populated area. In that case, it would be better for the storm to stay below hurricane status. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:37, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now I really doubt that it'll steal the name Ophelia. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * "Has lost some organization in the last few hours",per TWO.12.144.5.2 05:58, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

91L looks almost like a naked swirl right now. Also, gale-force winds have been reported. If shower activity increases just a bit more near the center, we likely have Subtropical Storm Ophelia. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:06, October 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80/80 per latest TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:25, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seventeen
The seemingly done INVEST pulled a convective burst out of nowhere and is now a tropical depression. It's also predicted to reach moderate tropical storm strength while bouncing about in the middle of nowhere. Considering this year, I'm happy with this. Jake52 (talk) 08:45, October 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Some of the regional models such as HMON and HWRF even show a hurricane with this as shear could lighten up over the next few days and SST's are expected to remain near 27 degrees celsius, but after that an upper-level trough will likely pull this storm (Ophelia) faster to the northeast and dissipate it. If this becomes Hurricane Ophelia before that though, then 2017 would tie 1886 aand 1893 for the most consecutive hurricanes in an Atlantic season, with 10. Ryan1000 10:40, October 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's in the middle of nowhere, so do a Lee, please. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:25, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, pull a Lee! I want you to RI please. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:16, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ophelia
And we're ahead of 2016... 40/1008, and the hurricane streak might end. T G  2 0 1 7 14:41, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Its actually forecast to become a hurricane in 96hrs. 182.58.71.0 14:55, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

EDIT : Ophelia, don't you dare strengthen, its forecast to be approaching the Azores. Could we see retirement candidate no. 5? 182.58.45.0 15:02, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Oh, Ophelia, you've been my mind girl like a drug. LOL  Fred (talk) 22:14, October 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * I must say Ophelia formed quickly. Why do I feel Ophelia will be like Nadine 2012? Anyway, I hope she follows the footsteps of Lee. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:51, October 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * I have to say that I am surprised that this formed. Anyways, she is forest to become a hurricane. Not sure if that is good or bad, considering her proximity to the Azores. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 17:16, October 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Ophelia is now up to 45/1005. The winds are likely higher than this, though. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:34, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ophelia could become another hurricane, our 10th in a row. Thankfully, it's out to sea! I hope it pulls off a Lee! :) However, it could cause some impacts in the Azores in the long run. This is like an October Alex/Nadine. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:39, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Opheilia is probably going to stay well south of the Azores, and if she somehow manages to reach the islands, she won't be stronger than a cat 1. There's no way Ophelia will be retired based on this track, but Ophelia could become a minimal hurricane before she dissipates in about a week, so our hurricane streak could certainly go on. Ryan1000 23:13, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Minimal hurricane is what the NHC predicts.12.144.5.2 23:36, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...NO THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS...
 * Oh good. Looks like it may be a Cat 1 hurricane at most. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:50, October 10, 2017 (UTC)

According to the latest model runs, Ophelia may unfortunately impact Spain, France, and the United Kingdom as a weakening hurricane or extratropical storm sometime next week. If this scenario continues to appear as it has in the ECMWF for the past couple of days now, asking for a major may no longer be a good idea. Unless it's a small cyclone like Lee, then it'll weaken quicker once it runs into shear over the weekend. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:05, October 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * It does mean that it continues the trend of Ophelia's hitting Europe. 2005, 2011 and likely this one too. Kiewii 12:40, October 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 60/1001 mb. Fred (talk) 20:45, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Both of the global models predict a northward turn with Ophelia before she reaches the Iberian Peninsula in either Spain or Portugal, and then either hitting northwestern France or the southern part of Britan. She'll probably be a non-tropical hurricane by that time, but still, this could be something to watch out for in western Europe down the road. Ryan1000 23:46, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensity down to 50 mph/1002 mb. But still, forecasted to be a hurricane on Thursday. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:51, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 65 mph/996 mbars. The latest run of the GFS actually does take this far enough north to potentially make a landfall on the southeastern Azores, which is something worth noting because Sao Miguel Island, the second-southeasternmost island in the Azores, is home to more than half the population of the archapelago. Ophelia is probably only going to be a 75-80 mph cat 1 when she passes over the islands, or just to the south of them, but this might not be a complete fish if she takes this path. Ryan1000 12:41, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Almost a hurricane. 70 mph, 992 mbars. Looks like a hurricane on satellite though; it has an eye now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here comes the Atlantic's 10th hurricane in a row... tying the all-time record from the 19th century. Even the NHC says that it looks like a hurricane. It could be one by the next advisory or two. The southeastern Azores need to watch out, and so should Ireland in the very long run (it is forecast to go there as an extratropical system). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:42, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Ophelia
Ladies and gentlemen, we have it, a new one for the record books. 10 in a row. 75 mph, 990 mbars. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:46, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yay! Our 10th in a row... Maybe we can even get a record-breaking 11th in a row if "Philippe" is also a hurricane. This ties some years in the 19th century (1878, 1886, 1893) for the most hurricanes in a row ever recorded. But since that was before the advent of satellite, it's very possible that tropical storms could have gone unnoticed in those years. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:25, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yay, the 10th consecutive hurricane in Atlantic is here! Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:53, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * The NHC track has shifted a bit closer towards Sao Miguel and Santa Maria islands in the southeastern Azores. The former island, as I mentioned before, has more than half the population of the Azores, roughly 137,000 people, but Santa Maria has only around 5,500. Still, those two islands are potentially in Ophelia's path, so they should watch out for possible impacts. Hopefully effects won't be too serious, like how Alex of last year was only minor at most for the islands due to his (and Ophelia's) minimal category 1 intensity. Ryan1000 02:13, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 85 mph and 986 mbars, forecast to hit 90 mph soon. Ryan1000 09:59, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 90 mph. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 15:58, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I bet that this will become a C2, even though the NHC isn't forecasting anything beyond its current windspeed. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:20, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

And, my bet came true. 100 mph/973 mbars ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:48, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * I didn't expect this. Now a Cat 2, Ophelia will unfortunately not be a major. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:34, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * 105 mph/970mb(28.65in) and forecast to stay 105mph for 12 hours,at the 11PM advisory.Forecast track hits Ireland & Scotlant between extra-tropical transition and dissipation.12.144.5.2 05:40, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

Winds downgraded to 100 mph, pressure upped to 971. <span style="background-color: #4FC2C6; border: 4px ridge #333; -webkit-border-radius: 12px; -moz-border-radius: 12px; border-radius: 8px; padding: 4px;"> LollipopWut <span style=" background-color: #333; border: 2px outset #333; -webkit-border-radius: 8px; -moz-border-radius: 8px; border-radius: 8px; padding: 0px 4px 0px 4px;"> TALK  <span style="background-color: #06C;   border: 2px outset #36C; -webkit-border-radius: 8px; -moz-border-radius: 8px; border-radius: 8px; padding: 0px 4px 0px 4px;"> CONTRIB  <span style="background-color: #033; border: 2px inset #CCC; -webkit-border-radius: 4px; -moz-border-radius: 4px; border-radius: 4px; color:#0CC">'' ??:??, ??/??/???? '' 15:33, October 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Ophelia's still forecast to narrowly miss the southernmost Azores islands as she heads east-northeast, but given Ophelia's small size, even a slight miss could mean almost negligible impacts for the islands. I'm honestly more worried about what Ireland and the UK could experience from this down the road when this thing turns extratropical. Hopefully it won't be too serious. Ryan1000 23:59, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed. The UK and Ireland could witness sizeable impacts from post-tropical Ophelia. It's expected to directly punch Ireland as still a hurricane-strength system before weakening to TS intensity as it crosses Scotland. Hopefully it's not going to be too bad over there. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:13, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm on the east coast of Scotland, so the winds shouldn't be too bad this side. Ophelia is looking much better this morning, with ADT estimates right up to 105-115 kts. I doubt it is that strong, but certainly wouldn't rule out it becoming a major before wind shear gets the better of it later. Kiewii 11:20, October 14, 2017 (UTC)




 * If this ATCF info is right, then we have another major on our hands. AL, 17, 2017101412,, BEST, 0, 342N, 277W, 100, 960, HU, 34, NEQ, 70, 80, 70, 60, 1011, 150, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
 * --182.58.63.95 13:33, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Ophelia
Its official. 100 kt/960 mbar. 182.58.63.95 14:44, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh wow, this is amazing! It beat Frances’s record for being the farthest east MH ever recorded! Fred (talk) 15:51, October 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * This season...I swear. I never would have expected six majors this year (and I doubt I'm alone considering how this season started), but even moreso...a major hurricane? Here? I was stunned when I saw this. Jake52 (talk) 15:12, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wow. Owen 15:14, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * One word for this season: shook. Congratulations to Ophelia for becoming a major south of the Azores. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:16, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Congrats to Ophelia for becoming a rare major and being the easternmost major hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:22, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

This season just keeps getting even more weird. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 16:21, October 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, this was not expected. Ophelia just surprised us all. I never expected it to do this stunt! 6 majors...wow ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:50, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * How powerful she is when she gets to Ireland is conjecture so she could be the strongest (recorded) storm of this nature to landfall. In terms of wind speeds, Atlantic storms are often "faster" and last a lot longer but it's very different set up. I'm in awe at what this storm is doing where it's doing it. If I'm not mistaken it appears to have doubled in size since yesterday evening. Retirement candidate #5 - here she comes. Owen 19:17, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * I called for it! This is a European Lee!! Heard it's coming to the UK, Ireland and Norway from the media. I'm in Newcastle upon Tyne at the moment so I hope this won't be too bad! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 19:30, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Post-Tropical impacts from Atlantic hurricanes in Europe usually don't lead to retirement, as the remnants of Charley in 1986 and Floyd in 1987 showed, though this could certainly bring potentially serious impacts to the British Isles regardless. On topic: I will say, I'm very, very impressed Ophelia managed to pull off major hurricane intensity this far northeast in the Atlantic, it's the easternmost such storm on record in the basin, but fortunately, due to her small size, Ophelia did not come close enough to the Azores to cause notable impacts to the islands. Had this thing formed and tracked about 100 miles farther north than where she is now, Ophelia could've hit Sao Miguel Island at this intensity and possibly been the worst hurricane to hit the Azores on record, but fortunately, that didn't happen. Still, with this unexpected intensity jump, this season doesn't dissapoint, we've now got 6 major hurricanes, just one short of tying the record of 7 set in 1961 and 2005, and 217 (and counting) ACE units, currently the 7th highest ACE on record in the Atlantic basin. Ryan1000 20:56, October 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * @Ryan: That may be but I'm not sure we've had a large storm like this one hitting Europe as an extratropical system, and extratropical systems can be retired for their impacts like Sandy (2012) or Igor (2010) so this most certainly could be retired depending on how it unfolds. I believe I saw a story suggesting models are predicting nearly 647 million euros in damage to Ireland from this system which is getting close to 750 million USD. Also European windstorms can be very damaging and deadly so there is certainly a chance for this system to become the first system to be retired due to impacts on Europe but is isn't a guarantee of course. --Whiplash (talk) 21:13, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * I would hope it's not bad, and retired if it is, but it's not a guarantee. The remnants of Hurricane Charley in 1986 caused a lot of damage in Ireland and Britan as well, though despite his post-tropical damage in Europe, Charley wasn't retired after that and stayed until 2004. Also, ex-Floyd of 1987 contributed to the formation of and evolved into the great england storm of 1987 when it struck on October 15 of that year (tomorrow is the 30th anniversary of that event; Dr. Masters mentioned that in his latest blog post), and that storm was supposedly the worst to hit the U.K. in more than 1,000 years, yet Floyd stayed on the list until 1999. Also, Igor was still a tropical hurricane when he impacted Newfoundland in September 2010, though he was hundreds of miles wide and moved surprisingly slow for a hurricane in that part of the Atlantic when he struck Newfoundland, which led to his high damage there, and Sandy was one of the costliest storms to hit the U.S. on record, let alone that she caused 2 billion in damage to eastern Cuba beforehand, so there was no way Sandy was staying, tropical or not. Ophelia could be a bad storm for Ireland and the northwestern U.K, but there have been destructive non-tropical ex-Atlantic storms before that hit the region that didn't get retired. But regardless if Ophelia gets axed or not for impacts there, this is certainly a storm to watch out for over the next few days in the British Isles. Ryan1000 21:26, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Ophelia (2nd time)
105 mph, 964 mbars. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:03, October 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Forecast to hit Ireland as a non-tropical category 1 storm sometime tomorrow morning. Hopefully impacts there and in the northern UK aren't too bad from this. Ryan1000 09:31, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope UK is okay. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:20, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Down to 90 mph. Expected to be post-tropical tonight. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, October 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * It'll be Post-Tropical, but it will be a strong one and will produce winds up to hurricane-status. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:11, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ophelia is starting to look non-tropical already, and it looks like Ireland will get the first hit before Ophelia races into the UK, while maintaining hurricane-force winds. Ryan1000 20:26, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * 85 mph at 5 PM advisory,now expected to dissipate near the western coast of Norway after going over Ireland and Scotland as a post-tropical cyclone.12.144.5.2 21:08, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia
Now post-tropical, but the U.K. and Ireland will receive plenty of impacts as the cyclone remains quite powerful. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:16, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * This just made landfall near Dingle, Ireland, and impacts are worse than expected in Southern Ireland. This is not looking good at all. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:55, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * One fatality now confirmed in Waterford. Tree fell down on a car, the woman driving the car was sadly killed. RIP. Anyway, this is turning out to be a bad storm. Hopefully the death toll stays at 1, but this tempest ain't done yet with Ireland. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:16, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * How are the impacts "worse than expected"? 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 13:04, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Initially, the storm's main impact was to hit Central Ireland, but Ophelia ended up tracking further to the west, causing the worst impacts to hit Southern Ireland by surprise. That's why it is "worse than expected". T  G  2 0 1 7 14:05, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * The death toll is rising very quickly. It's now up at three. Hopefully, it stays there, but that's too low for a storm like this. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:51, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh god, make that 38 deaths. T  G  2 0 1 7 18:05, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Most of the deaths came from Portugal & Spain; these deaths are indirect, as they are due to the wildfires that were exacerbated by Ophelia's outer bands. From Ophelia alone, 3 fatalities have occurred — all in Ireland — but with all the pictures and videos I have seen so far, I think this is one of Ireland's worst storms. We really might have retirement candidate #5 here (or #4, if Nate does not get the boot). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:25, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nate is very likely to get the boot due to impacts in Central America and Isaac-like damages in the U.S. The impacts in Central America were similar to Otto (which was retired) and it was more deadly so I would be surprised if Nate is snubbed. Back to Ophelia, I wouldn't be so sure on it being a major retirement candidate yet. The 3 deaths are saddening, and it could have been pretty damaging, but I still doubt that's enough for Ireland and the U.K. to request retirement. They can get severe windstorms like this almost every season. The wildfires are not an exact part of Ophelia, but the storm did pretty much cause the fires. There could be a small chance of Spain or Portugal requesting retirement, but I wouldn't bet on it for now since the fires are not an exact part of the storm but only contributed to it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:49, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * To those who are saying Ophelia will probably not be retired: Ophelia has caused $2 billion (2017 USD) in damages in the British Isles. That's just the low-end estimate. T  G  2 0 1 7 01:01, October 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Damage totals on the Wikipedia article say >$1.18 billion. Apparently it became the worst storm there since the Great Storm of 1987. I'd say it has a pretty decent chance of retirement. We could very well tie the record for most retirements with 2005, since Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, and this storm all are either likely or certain retirement candidates. BTW, Ophelia's extratropical system has dissipated over Scandinavia. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:30, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: East of the Lessers
0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:28, October 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh, you beat me to it. I think this will become Philippe but I'm afraid it will be another destructive hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:34, October 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * If this develops it won't be until it moves to the northwest and ends up south of Bermuda, and then it'll likely turn north and then east and out to sea. It's not likely this will be anything too serious for Bermuda down the road, and it's unlikely it'll be a threat to any other land areas either. However, we still have a month and a half of hurricane season left, and we can't rule out the NW Caribbean from producing a bad storm down the road before the season ends...fingers crossed we don't see one. Ryan1000 02:05, October 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * For perspective,at this time in 2005,we were up to the "V" storm.12.144.5.2 05:41, October 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * 10/30 per latest TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:26, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Now invested. Fred (talk) 18:20, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still at 10/30, and we could see Philippe once it moves into more favorable conditions early next week. I hope it doesn't threaten any land in the long term... (like Bermuda) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:15, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/40 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 10:31, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/50. Fred (talk) 07:03, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * 30/50. I think this would be at most Philippe. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:22, October 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 30/40. Fred (talk) 23:52, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately I do not think this will become Philippe anymore. It's in strong upper-level winds and expected to merge with a front in a couple days or so. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:18, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 40/40. Fred (talk) 05:51, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

I'd still be quite surprised if this manages to become Philippe. It's only got a maximum of two days to get its act together before merging with the front. Even then, conditions are not particularly conducive. If it does suddenly develop, I want a TD at most because I'm really hoping "Philippe" is used for the record-breaking 11th hurricane in a row, as I would like to see this record being broken. If the streak counts depressions, than I don't want this to develop at all. 92L will not be a hurricane, that's for sure. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:55, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * 30/30. Philippe will have to wait. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:02, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20/20 and the 2 AM TWO says it's forecast to merge with a cold front within a day.12.144.5.2 07:16, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

This won't develop — well, maybe as an extratropical system, but as a tropical one? I don't think so. The Atlantic will stay quiet for a while now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:12, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

It's gone now 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 13:26, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

A late October lull
Nothing on the map,nothing expected in the TWO.Can this last?12.144.5.2 19:37, October 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic is quiet at last! After raging with 10 consecutive hurricanes (including 2 destructive C5's), the basin is taking a well-deserved break. The NHC must be tired lol. And the rest of October should probably be quiet, but still I wouldn't rule out something developing by Halloween. I would be very surprised if we don't see Philippe or even Rina by December 31st (since post-season December storms are always a real possibility). The Atlantic could get down to Sean (tying 2011's named storms, excluding the unnamed TS), and anything beyond Tammy is looking out of the question. What a year it's been for this basin. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:19, October 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * I don't think the Atlantic wants to stay quiet for long though. Check this link out. Also, given just how active the Atlantic basin has been this year, I'm not ruling out another late November storm like Otto last year, or even a post-season storm. We'll probably see up to Sean; I agree that hoping for Tammy would be stretching it. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:21, October 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah I wouldn't rule this season out as done yet, just because we're quiet now doesn't mean we'll stay that way for the last 5-6 weeks of the season. The GFS has been hinting at something forming in the western Caribbean by around the end of October or November, and since Nate didn't exploit the warm SST's and low wind shear that the NW Caribbean has been known to have for late-season storms (because he was disrupted heavily by interaction with Central America), we cannot rule out the possibility of one more destructive storm over the next few weeks. Worse, that late-season storm might not hit Central America immediately like Nate did. Ryan1000 23:47, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

Yep, the Atlantic is quiet. And I like it. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 05:58, October 22, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Caribbean Sea
The morning TWO has a 0/20 AOI in the Caribbean but it doesn't merit a yellow X on the map.12.144.5.2 17:47, October 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic needs to be calm and quiet and peaceful and something like that. But disturbances keep popping up everywhere in this basin. Anyway, it's shown on the 5-day TWO only. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:52, October 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * This seems like yet ANOTHER system we will have to watch out for. The European model spins it up into a hurricane by the beginning of next week. - Garfield
 * Sigh, not again. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:41, October 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unlike Nate, this one could move further north than northwest and might miss Central America, so this is definitely one to watch out for in the waters of the NW Caribbean. Up to 0/30. Ryan1000 02:14, October 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * 0/40 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 05:39, October 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * This could be Philippe when it becomes a TS. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:33, October 23, 2017 (UTC)

Dang it, I was enjoying the quiet. I’ve had enough of this season. I can’t believe I’m asking this, but does anyone else miss the Atlantic being quiet like it was in 2013 and 2014? Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 22:39, October 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Definitely not 2013, but 2009 and 2014 were nice. T  G  2 0 1 7 23:13, October 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, 2014 was quite nice. Little destruction and little deaths, right? Anyway, it is up to 10/50 and it now appears on the two-day TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:43, October 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Pardon me, but what on earth is the "TWO?" I have legit been looking for this forever. Lol. -Emmaelise401


 * TWO means Tropical Weather Outlook. Anyway, this AOI is looking a bit concerning now. I hope it won't be anything destructive if it forms. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:39, October 24, 2017 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Now an invest. 10/50. Fr3d (talk) 02:21, October 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is another one that appears to look concerning in the long run. Hopefully for now, it is nothing strong due to its proximity to land. If it does someday go out to sea, I'd like to break the record for most hurricanes in a row. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:40, October 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Chances were dropped to 20/40. - Garfield


 * I didn't expect I would say this but that's... good. I've had enough with this season's destructive storms. I want another Lee, not another Nate (and/or Harvey). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, October 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * I have to agree. The season has seen way more than enough destruction and is surpassing 2005 to be the costliest season on record. This storm, if it becomes Philippe, should stay respectfully weak. Conditions will favor development before upper-level winds strengthen by Sunday. We might only see a TS at most from this, unless it unexpectedly rapidly organizes. Even though it is in a region with a lot of land and has limited time to organize and intensify, I lowkey hope for a 75 mph C1 hurricane (of course nothing stronger) so the record for most hurricanes in a row can be broken. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, October 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, October 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * 40/40, but I now highly doubt we will see the 11th consecutive hurricane from this. It'll probably only be a TD or weak TS due to limited time before upper-level winds increase on Sunday. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  23:48, October 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * 60/60, I think this will become Philippe 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 12:09, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Looking at all the conditions this will probably be the final tropical system of the season. I really don't think we will see an R storm unless there is a rare subtropical one. Anyways Philippe to be is going to combine with a very interesting system to contribute to very severe weather over the north-eastern part of the eastern seaboard. While the impacts won't be direct it will probably contribute to one of the most severe storms for the northeastern United States since Sandy. --Whiplash (talk) 15:14, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80/80 now. --Whiplash (talk) 17:29, October 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * If it's not designated as Philippe when Recon returns it'll probably be at least a TD or a PTC by the 5 PM update. Ryan1000 20:05, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen
"NHC will initiate advisories at 5 PM EDT on Potential Tropcial Cyclone Eighteen, currently located over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea." Looks like recon didn't quite find a TD, but it should become one tonight or tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:41, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Sigh I was enjoying the quiet. I really hope future-Philippe isn’t destructive, we’ve seen enough of destructive storms this year. I hope 2018 is just a season with nothing but storms that do what Lee did. A season of Lees would be great, especially after this year. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:53, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lol I agree. I want a season of C5 fishspinners. :P Anyway, I doubt PTC 18 (potential Philippe) will be that destructive. It will just remain weak until it is absorbed by a cold front on Monday. Also, TS force winds have been reported, so this will go straight to Philippe when it develops a well-defined center. Unless a miracle happens, it's safe to say that the streak of hurricanes will be broken with this system. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  21:14, October 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * I really doubt that it will be a hurricane. I hope that its impacts aren't that bad. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:05, October 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * And this will be the one that will break the hurricane streak. I know that would be sad on my part, but it would be make me more sorrowful if another destructive hurricane forms just for the sake of breaking the record. I hope future-Philippe won't bring Allison-like or Erika-esque rainfall in the Caribbean. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:35, October 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * This'll probably just become a weak TS and move northeast to hit southern Cuba, so our hurricane streak may not continue with this. A good analogy to this storm would be 1991's Fabian. However, unlike Fabian, the remnants of this storm could merge with the front curving it to the northeast to form a powerful nor'easter for New England later on. Ryan1000 02:20, October 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Satellite-derived intensity has gone below TS strength, 35 mph/1005 mbars. This is going to be a longer waiting game for Philippe than I thought... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  05:56, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen
The latest advisory makes it officially a TD. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:10, October 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's approaching landfall in Cuba and it will receive some impacts from this system. It'll be Philippe later on today. If it doesn't become Philippe, it will eat my words. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:26, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Philippe
IT BECAME PHILLIPPE GUYS HONHONHON ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE... ...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 20:38, October 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * You beat me to it. :P Anyway, our hurricane streak is likely broken and this should be our first tropical storm (sub-hurricane) since Emily. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:41, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lkqtQ61k58E WOO PHILIPPE IS A STORM!! However only expected to peak as a TS. :P] blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 20:40, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

It has weakened slightly by 1 mb (40 mph/1003 mbars) and doesn't have the best appearance. It's still forecast to intensify to a strong tropical storm by Monday due to increased forward speed and upper-level divergence. I still highly doubt we will see a hurricane from this. Also, Philippe is impacting southern Florida as I speak. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  04:18, October 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Cuba's impacts are minimal, I think. Hi!-68.106.0.77 06:40, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * 45mph at 2 AM advisory.12.144.5.2 07:19, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Expected to dissipate later today. Intensity up to 50 mph/997 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:05, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * 60 mph at 2 PM advisory.12.144.5.2 18:09, October 29, 2017 (UTC)

Philippe is moving really fast. Like he’s trying to get away from something.... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:11, October 29, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Philippe
It has lost all subtropical/tropical characteristics and merged with a cold front. It has also been hit by shear in excess of 50 knots! Yeah, it did seem to move very fast. What a weird system Philippe was. Also it's official: our hurricane streak has been broken, and the streak from Franklin to Ophelia (most in satellite era and tied with 1878, 1887 and 1893) is final. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:50, October 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, that means that we have to say goodbye to the hurricane streak. Hi!-68.106.0.77 21:31, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * 1886, not 1887 Steve. But still, it was nice to track while it lasted, it doesn't apear Cuba or Florida got too much from this, but the northeast may have to watch out over the next few days. Ryan1000 23:35, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * I got the years from here. It says in the second paragraph 1878, 1887, and 1893. I guess someone made a mistake there and it needs to be corrected. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  03:24, October 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * I fixed the mistake. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:38, October 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Remnants of Philippe are causing havoc in the north-east. Maine has declared a state of emergency with nearly half of the state's population without power and damage that could be worse than the infamous 1998 ice storm for the state. --Whiplash (talk) 16:52, October 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hmm...I'm pretty sure that a different large extratropical low and the cold front played a major part. Philippe was only a minor contributor (AFAIK). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  01:52, October 31, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: East-Central Atlantic
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form here (0/20). Rina in the long run, perhaps? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  05:56, October 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be Ophelia v2. Fr3d (talk) 15:54, October 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30; this will maybe become Rina. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:29, October 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/40 now. Fr3d (talk) 23:55, October 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * We will likely see Rina from this in the long run. Here comes a re-Ophelia... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  04:20, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 10/40.12.144.5.2 18:09, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/40. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  03:25, October 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/40 per latest TWO.  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 14:23, October 30, 2017 (UTC) 

94L.INVEST
Now an invest. 30/40. Fr3d (talk) 14:56, October 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Rina is on the way it appears. Here's some fun facts. If Rina is named, it will only be the fifth time in the Atlantic basin the "R" name has been used, and the first "R" name to be used twice to name a tropical cyclone in the basin. Anyway, if she doesn't form in the next 48 hours, 2017 will be the first season since 2013 to have had a tropical storm form in every month of the hurricane season. C'mon Rina! Owen 19:29, October 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Dropped to 20/30. Fr3d (talk) 23:40, October 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this system wants to form, then it will need to be stronger and more organized than now. Come on 94L! You can improve and redeem yourself.  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 00:40, October 31, 2017 (UTC) 
 * It could become Rina, but there's also a pretty good chance that it'll bust. We'll just have to wait and see. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  01:52, October 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * If you think about it, all R names that have been used have either been forecast to become strong or flat out been strong. Roxeanne was a powerful category 3, Rita was, well, Rita. Early models made Richard and Raf EXTREMELY powerful, (though both ended up preforming averagely), and Rina '11 was a cat 3. Hopefully this one breaks the trend... Emma and V 03:07, October 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20. I'm starting to doubt that this will develop.  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 14:25, October 31, 2017 (UTC) 
 * Down to 10/10.  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 23:41, October 31, 2017 (UTC) 
 * Was at 0/0, now gone completely. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 12:02, November 1, 2017 (UTC)