User:CobraStrike/CobraStrike's Forecasting Centre/Hurricane Irene (2011)/August 25/1800

Not calling for a picture forecast late night like this on a work day, but because of the high demands in the general public pressing on the computer models and NHC forecasts, I will present my forecast.

Peak Intensity
Calling for a 125-130 mph category 3 with a pressure of 935 mbar, although there is no reason I can press for a minimum category 4.

Track
The NHC's been persistant on a North Carolina skid and New England/New Jersey/York hit, but recently they've been slowly moving westward in the forecast tracks. My forecast has had the same general direction since August 22, so I'll keep it similar. The steering trough is moving north, so a strong north/northeast turn will probably be not as hard as was forecasted before.

Irene Wobbles
Irene has been known for wobbling in sprials. These are big wobbles, but keep Irene on track. If you recall, Earl of 2010 did staircase wobbles. This is why it greatly altered the track of Earl, bringing it closer to the coast than forecast. The sprial wobbles of Irene should be not a problem and Irene should keep in the general position (within 50 miles) of the best forecast track.

North Carolina Landfall
Yes, I predict a landfall on the North Carolina mainland as I did the whole time, except a little lower on the winds since Irene is facing a tough 30 kt wind shear area to the north. Same county I'm landfalling on: Onslow County.

New Jersey Pass
My original forecast called for a 65/60 mph tropical storm heading near New Jersey, but because I shifted my track east very slightly, the storm should be a bit stronger, around 75 mph or maybe even 80 mph.

New England/New York Impact
I forecast that Irene be a 85 mph hurricane landfalling in the JFK Int'l Airport area. Why is it stronger than was in New Jersey? That's because of all the baroclinic stuff and atmospheric conditions (as seen when Bertha strengthened when so high up).

Cost of Damages??? Can you think of one?
Well, estimating damages is pretty much rhetorical, but I'm just saying that $1 billion (low end) to $6 billion is possible.