Forum:2019-20 South Pacific cyclone season

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Related Pages:
 * 2019-20 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools)
 * 2019-20 Australian Region cyclone season (Betting pools)

90P.INVEST
First invest of the year! Currently located northeast of Vanuatu. RSMC Nadi gives this a "low" chance for Nov. 24-26, with TCWC Wellington more confident in the system's development. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:02, November 22, 2019 (UTC)

Now code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:43, November 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Code orange now. Models have been picking up on this system. I think it could become "Rita" and the first named storm of the SHem season. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:53, November 22, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 01F
Now designated as the first tropical disturbance of the year. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:12, November 23, 2019 (UTC)


 * The GEFS runs on tidbits make this storm a category 1 storm or so, though it'll be well northwest of Fiji and may also miss Vanuatu to the east. Some smaller islands in the South Pacific could be affected by this storm however. Ryan1000 05:56, November 23, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 01F
TCFA up. Forecast by Nadi to become a C2 (Aus scale) in 3 days. -- Java Hurricane  15:26, November 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensified a bit to 35 mph (30 knots)/1000 mbar according to RSMC Nadi. Here comes Rita! ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:59, November 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Warnings up from JTWC. -- Java Hurricane  04:16, November 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Already a 35 knot (40 mph) tropical storm according to JTWC. BTW, in the active storms header, it's preferable to use the official designation "01F" rather than the unofficial "01P" JTWC designation. The template never uses other unofficial JTWC designations or intensities and instead uses info from official agencies like JMA, RSMC Nadi, etc., except if a JMA TD gets a JTWC designation (because JMA never uses their own designation for depressions, as far as I know). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:19, November 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Rita
It's now named Rita, and forecast to cone a little closer to Vanuatu, though the forecast for Rita's intensity is lower than before. Ryan1000 08:41, November 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Currently 40 mph (35 knots)/995 mbar according to Nadi. Already as strong as 65 mph (55 knots) according to JTWC. It should become a C2 or even a C3-strength cyclone (SPac scale). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:28, November 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a C2-strength storm, 70 mph (60 knots)/978 mbar according to Nadi and 75 mph (65 knots) per JTWC. Looks very likely to become a C3 overnight. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:38, November 25, 2019 (UTC)

The track has changed quite a bit from a few days ago, now Rita is expected to turn west after moving south and move over southern Vanuatu. This might cause some impacts to them after all, though the runs on Tidbits still don't seem to keep Rita very strong when she reaches them. Ryan1000 10:48, November 25, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Rita
Made it to Severe TC status and C3 intensity, now 75 mph (65 mph)/977 mbar according to Nadi, although JTWC has weakened it to a 70 mph (60 knot) TS. To be honest it should only be a weak TS or depression when it passes through Vanuatu. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:27, November 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Rita (2nd time)
Back down to a 2 per FMS, 60 kt per JTWC. -- Java Hurricane  00:43, November 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 60 mph (50 knots) according to both FMS and JTWC, with a pressure of 985 mbar. JTWC forecast now shows dissipation before it reaches Vanuatu. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:42, November 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to C1 intensity, Currently 40 mph (FMS and JTWC)/995 mbar. Expected to dissipate tomorrow near Vanuatu. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:00, November 26, 2019 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Rita
Gone. -- Java Hurricane  00:55, November 27, 2019 (UTC)

92/93P.INVEST
Up on Tidbits to the northeast of the Solomon Islands. Apparently has 2 designations (92P and 93P). No other agency is monitoring it at the moment, but models seem to suggest that something could develop out of this in the long term. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:39, December 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Apparently redesignated as 94P (see below). ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:24, December 8, 2019 (UTC)

94P.INVEST
Currently on Tidbits and likely the same system as the above, although again, no other agency is monitoring it. ~  ☃ Steve ❄   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:24, December 8, 2019 (UTC)

97P.INVEST
New invest up on Tidbits. RSMC Nadi gives this a "low" chance for the days just before Christmas. ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  18:51, December 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 02F
Up as a tropical disturbance on RSMC Nadi, currently 30 mph/1001 mbar and might deepen east of Niue and west of the Southern Cook Islands. I don't really expect this to become named though. Also up on JTWC with code yellow. ~  Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  21:01, December 20, 2019 (UTC)

Deepened a bit to 999 mbar but seems to have peaked at 998 mbar earlier today. Any further development seems unlikely and it's just expected to dissipate after Monday. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  04:06, December 22, 2019 (UTC)

Weakened to 1005 mbar, no longer on JTWC nor is it expected to become stronger anymore. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  21:03, December 23, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of 02F
Dead. Now time to monitor 03F... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  16:58, December 25, 2019 (UTC)

98P.INVEST
Another new invest on Tidbits, this is just to the east of 02F and near the Cook Islands. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  21:01, December 20, 2019 (UTC)

Dead. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  04:06, December 22, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Santa Cruz Islands
RSMC Nadi and TCWC Wellington are picking up on another system developing on and after Christmas, with Nadi giving it a "low to moderate" chance for the 26th. Not invested yet. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  04:06, December 22, 2019 (UTC)

99P.INVEST
Invested according to Tidbits. GFS ensembles seem pretty bullish with this system and the chances for the 26th-27th are now "High" per RSMC Nadi. I expect this to be the next named storm, "Sarai". Fiji might need to watch out for this one in the long term. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  21:05, December 22, 2019 (UTC)

It has moved to the northeast closer to the equator and is now code yellow per JTWC. The chances per RSMC Nadi are now "High" for the 27th and 28th. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  21:03, December 23, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F
Now a TD, currently 25 knots (30 mph)/1000 mbar per RSMC Nadi. Also code red (TCFA issued) on JTWC. This looks likely to become a significant cyclone. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  16:58, December 25, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Sarai
It's been named and is now a C1-intensity cyclone per RSMC Nadi (35 knots/40 mph and 995 mbar) and 50 mph (45 knots) per JTWC. Expected to pass dangerously close to Fiji late Friday as a C2 or potentially even a C3-strength cyclone. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  20:03, December 26, 2019 (UTC)

Continues to gradually strengthen. Now 45 knots (50 mph)/990 mbar per RSMC Nadi and 50 knots (60 mph) per JTWC. I expect it to reach C2 intensity (Aus scale) overnight (PST time). Its passage close to Fiji is nothing to laugh about, as it could have the potential to be somewhat destructive when it passes by as a borderline hurricane-strength cyclone (SSHWS) while turning east. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  05:50, December 27, 2019 (UTC)

Sarai now a C2-strength cyclone (equivalent to a strong tropical storm). 55 knots (65 mph) per RSMC Nadi & JTWC and 980 mbars. It is currently near Fiji and beginning to turn eastward. Forecast to intensify to a C3 by tonight or tomorrow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  20:41, December 27, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 60 knots (70 mph)/973 mbar per RSMC Nadi, but now a hurricane-strength cyclone per JTWC (70 knots/80 mph). No additional strengthening is forecast but I won't rule out a brief stint at C3 (Aus scale) intensity. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  22:43, December 28, 2019 (UTC)

It appears to have peaked as a strong C2 on the cusp of C3 intensity. Sarai has now weakened to 50 knots (60 mph)/980 mbar per RSMC Nadi and 65 knots (75 mph) per JTWC. Unfortunately, 2 people have drowned in floodwaters due to the storm. It's forecast to weaken gradually and pass near Tonga and Niue before dissipating. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎄   Happy  Holidays!  🎅🕯  21:05, December 29, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 35 knots (40 mph)/988 mbar per FMS and 45 knots (50 mph) per JTWC as it passes near Tonga. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Goodbye  2019!  ⚰️  02:08, December 31, 2019 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Sarai
It's dead now. However, according to FMS, currently has a "low" chance of redevelopment on January 2. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Goodbye  2019!  ⚰️  06:51, January 1, 2020 (UTC)


 * I would not count on redevelopment. Sarai is in a heavily-sheared environment, and RSMC Nadi states that most models are expecting the system to rapidly weaken. With a current pressure of 996 mbar (hPa), the remnants of Sarai now have a low to very low chance of redevelopment in the next 24 to 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:16, January 2, 2020 (UTC)