Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is coming up, and the betting pools are up. I'll make some predictions for this season later, but if any of you guys have pre-season predictions, feel free to post them below. Ryan1000 03:56, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * CPHC will be merging their site to the NHC's in May. This should make finding advisories for CPAC storms even easier. Won't change the pace of CPHC TCRs though. Here's some other changes for this season.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:40, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * ...and the CPHC site is gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:24, May 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * The 2019 Pacific hurricane season has now officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  00:00, May 15, 2019 (UTC)

September
Since it's only a day away, might as well add this section now. 98E/future-Juliette may be added here if it forms on the 1st. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:39, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Baja California
An AOI popped up hundreds of miles southwest of Baja California, at 0/30 as of now.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 14:35, August 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/50. Looking likely to be Juliette. Geez, the EPac had a pathetic August - it's the first since 1973 (I think) to not have a hurricane form in this month. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:59, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 30/70 now. Beatissima (talk) 05:45, August 31, 2019 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Invested according to Tidbits. 60/90 now; Juliette is coming from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:37, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90! This organized more quickly than I thought it would. Juliette could come as soon as the next couple days. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:15, August 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * While everyone is focused on Dorian, 98E is already at 100/100. Tidbits now considers this as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eleven, but NHC hasn't made it official yet. JTWC also issued a TCFA for this thing. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:18, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Juliette
Juliette is here, and could possibly become a category 1 hurricane. Lets hope it's not a huge bust like Ivo. Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  08:39, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Transferred this to the September section. It's been a while since a system skipped the PTC and TD phases. Currently 1004 mb, 45 mph (this is intensifying kinda fast), and is forecast to peak at 85 mph. Juliette, previously 98E, actually looked like a TS in the 2-day TWO when I checked it earlier, which is the reason why I am not that surprised. It would somehow surprise me if Juliette won't reach hurricane status though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:55, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I guess we all got so caught up in Dorian that none of us posted anything about the disturbance in the EPAC that has now become TS Juliette. 40 kt/1004 mbar as of now, and expected to become a 75-kt hurricane in a couple days. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:13, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60 mph, 1000 mbars now. Also, I have transferred your post to this one, Dylan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:31, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * D'oh! My bad, I didn't even see a September section go up :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:45, September 1, 2019 (UTC)

This has organized so quickly, might have a very likely chance at major. Maybe it wants to be noticed during Dorian's time. At least there's a fishspinner to watch on the opposite side of Mexico in the midst of the cataclysm unfolding over the northern Bahamas as we speak. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:20, September 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like strengthening has slowed...for now. Pressure down to 998 mbar, winds stay the same. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:03, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

65/997. Will probably become a hurricane soon. Ryan1000 11:01, September 2, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Juliette
...and now it is one! 70 kts/987 mbar, forecast peak of 90 kts. Hoping it goes to Category 3 and peaks there - we haven't had an EPAC storm peak as a Category 3 since Otis (nor in the Atlantic since Ophelia, fwiw). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:39, September 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Only forecast to peak as a 105 mph hurricane by now, but if it tries just a little harder, we could get a Cat. 3 peak. And I'm certainly rooting for that (since it's a fishspinner) because it'll be the first in a long time! Also I want to note that the NHC forecast is above all of the intensity models for the first 48 hours. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:48, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Juliette
Well at this rate we'll have to wait. Already at 100 kts/963 mbar, with the forecast peak raised to a 115-kt Category 4. :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:34, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Woah, Juliette took off fast. It jumped from a C1 to a C3 in 6 hours.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 02:43, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Boy, that escalated quickly!  As far as I'm concerned, she can RI all she wants as long as she stays out at sea. Beatissima (talk) 02:45, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

With this happening, Julette is the first hurricane we've had since Flossie in July (this year was the first since 1973 to have no hurricanes in the month of August). Still have a bit of time left in the season though. Hopefully we can get another fishspinning major or two like Juliette. Ryan1000 12:59, September 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, what a pathetic August the EPac had this year. I'm quite surprised Juliette pulled off such a quick RI. However it seems to have leveled off in intensity at 125 mph and the NHC no longer forecasts a C4. Uh, this could actually be a C3-peaking storm 🤗 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:51, September 3, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Juliette (2nd time)
Down to cat 2, and should slowly die down from here on out. Ryan1000 12:12, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is a Category 3 peak. Finally. First since Otis and Ophelia. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:47, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Julay did well. PeterPiper567 (talk) 18:50, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to Category 1 strength, 85 mph/980 mbar. Expected to become a remnant low this weekend. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:05, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Juliette
Latest advisory downgrades it to a tropical storm and it should die by Sunday. Goodbye Juliette, thanks for peaking as a C3 (first here since Otis)! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:48, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Almost dead and losing convection, down to 45 mph/1005 mbar. Might be post-tropical or remnants as soon as the next advisory. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:22, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette
And now it is dead. Farewell, Juliette, thanks for becoming the first C3 since Otis! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:42, September 7, 2019 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
What??!!!! NHC suddenly gave 70/70 at 12:00UTC and declared a TD at 15:00UTC while west of 140W. Completely unexpected. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:49, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
"This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system." I actually burst out laughing. Well then, I guess we're about to see Akoni within the next day or so! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Where the hell did this come from??? Anyway, Akoni is coming, I guess. Expected to pass south of Hawaii as a strong TS. Hopefully becomes a hurricane since it's not expected to hit the islands. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:42, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow this thing came out of nowhere. 😮😮😮 Akoni is finally coming I guess? Lol. This is probably the most unexpected and quickest formation I've ever seen. And it's already crossing 140W and entering the CPac. I have to say, what a shocker. 😮 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:51, September 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wtf, this was definitely unexpected. First, an AOI that started off as a 70/70 and then rapidly developed into a tropical depression. Like wow, I have no more words to say. Anyway, I can see Akoni coming from this system. Hopefully, it becomes a hurricane and stays away from land.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Beware of Dorian 22:55, September 4, 2019 (UTC)

What a surprise! Beatissima (talk) 00:47, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still at 30 mph/1007 mbar, but looking better and could become Akoni in the next couple days. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:06, September 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Akoni
Because of ASCAT, not a few days. Today.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:51, September 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, already?! And it's got 45 mph winds now. This could even become a hurricane down the road, and with the way things appear now, could be an IDL crosser in the very long term. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:05, September 6, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Akoni
And poof. It's gone. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 15:47, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * And I never expected this to be gone so soon! 😮 What a failure, unless it regenerates sometime. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:44, September 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Akoni's remnants are now on the TWO with a 0/20 chance of regeneration. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:55, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10. I doubt regeneration. Akoni was such an epic failure. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:24, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * And now it’s off from the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  22:00, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of S Coast of Mexico
This one just popped up at 0/20. Beatissima (talk) 00:42, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/30. This has Kiko potential. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:23, September 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Jumped to 20/70. Kiko anyone?  Sandy 156   :)  22:09, September 8, 2019 (UTC)

40/80. Kiko is probably coming from this. Ryan1000 13:33, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/90 but somehow it's still not invested. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:43, September 9, 2019 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
60/90, TCFA issued, finally invested. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 10:47, September 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 80/90, I expect a TD to form tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:53, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * The GFS is giving me shivers at the moment. It is predicting a Cat 3 impacting Hawaii in 10 days or do. -- Java Hurricane  08:12, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * That was one model run at more than 300 hours out. I wouldn't put much stock in it. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:35, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 90/90, almost there... Hopefully it curves away from Hawaii. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  19:07, September 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
It's now a depression. For now, forecast to become a minimal hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:22, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kiko
Upgraded to a TS. Hoping this becomes a hurricane because we don't need any more busts (like Ivo) or failure TSs. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:34, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, hurricane strength is no longer in the forecast. Hopefully it can still become one though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:03, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, OBVIOUSLY the EPAC have been producing mostly turd systems this year lmao this ain't any exception PeterPiper567 (talk) 21:06, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, but there's also been awesome storms like Barbara, Erick, and Juliette. Not a complete bust season, but still pathetic due to fails like Dalila, Gil, Henriette, and Akoni. Kiko has actually intensified to 50 mph/1001 mbar as of the latest advisory and a hurricane is back in the forecast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:09, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Surprisingly strengthened more than expected overnight. Almost a hurricane... 70 mph/992 mbar. At least this isn't another Ivo. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:17, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Kiko
lmfao watch this bomb out to major uwu PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:47, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * 110mph LMFAO PeterPiper567 (talk) 00:53, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Kiko
Now a 115 mph, 966 mbar category 3 hurricane according to the NHC. Yup. TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 02:31, September 15, 2019 (UTC)


 * Well well, what a shocker! This really bombed out over the past day. The conservative NHC forecasts were beaten up once again by an EPac storm. Forecast peak 125 mph, but I'm calling for a Category 4. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:15, September 15, 2019 (UTC)


 * CALLED IT! Now a Category 4, 130 mph/950 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:16, September 15, 2019 (UTC)


 * And now it’s weakening. Down to a C3, 125/954.  Sandy 156   :)  02:52, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Kiko (2nd time)
Down to C2. Honestly Kiko looks pretty bad now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:01, September 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now a C1, 85 mph/982 mbar. But this weakening might come to a halt in the next couple days and it could actually restrengthen during Wednesday-Thursday. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:07, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: >1000 Miles SW of Baja
On the 5-day outlook at 0/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:43, September 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/30, looking to be Lorena. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:53, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the 2-day outlook, 10/30. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  15:29, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pretty sure it’ll have a chance of getting a CPac name. Harveycane   (Talk |  Contributions)  17:30, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * That would be a bit far out though. It could be Lorena (looks more likely for now) or Ema if it develops at a snails pace. Now 20/30. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  19:09, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20, development is not looking as likely anymore due to upper-level winds forecast down the road. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:50, September 12, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 10/10, will probably just dissipate. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:30, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0% for 2 and 5 days, now actually expected to drift towards Kiko's circulation. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:29, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * And now it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:17, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of Central America
Another on the 5-day outlook (0/20). Might be Mario if the above becomes Lorena. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  19:13, September 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/30. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  06:31, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:50, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/60, this could be Lorena guys, unless the 10/30 system to the SE of Kiko beats it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:09, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/70, should be on the two-day outlook soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is looking more likely to be Mario if the other system becomes Lorena. Down to 0/60 but very likely will still develop in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:11, September 14, 2019 (UTC)

On the 2-day outlook now. 10/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:30, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 20/60. It's a competition to see who will get Lorena, the loser gets Mario. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:19, September 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 40/70, Lorena is coming (if anybody cares). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:40, September 16, 2019 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and up to 60/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:03, September 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * Up to 90/90 while the other system (91E) is also 90/90. This is going to be the biggest battle ever for the name "Lorena". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:03, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lorena
Not sure if this is the one, but a special message from NHC has been released. 200 miles south of Acapulco, may affect Mexico. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:30, September 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Advisory out, forecast to peak at 55 kt, though the NHC believes that should the storm stay offshore Mexico, it could become a hurricane. Storm watch up for a part of Mexico. -'' Java Hurricane  15:13, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: 1000 Miles SE of Hawaii
Popped up on the CPHC outlook at 0/20. Let's see if this becomes Ema. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 😔   9/11  Never forget. 🙏  AMERICA IS STRONG! 🗽🇺🇸  06:34, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:32, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back down to 0/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:15, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Few Hundred Miles SW of Acapulco
Yet another one has appeared associated with a tropical wave, currently 10/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:52, September 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/30, might possibly be Lorena. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:10, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:10, September 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 20/50. Looking to be either Lorena or Mario. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:19, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
It's been invested and up to 40/50, but expected to interact or merge with the system behind it after mid-week. It's funny how I'm the only one updating these AOIs...does anyone even care about this basin? Lol ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:40, September 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * There's me, but I'm not that active here these days... :/ Up to 60/70, but this doesn't have long before it gets absorbed by what is now 92E. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:04, September 16, 2019 (UTC)


 * All other users seem to have ditched this basin though (at least when it comes to posting about AOIs, active storms like Kiko do get some activity). And this is now 90/90 along with 92E. A big battle is ensuing. Will it be Lorena? Or Mario? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:03, September 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * 100/100. 15-E is coming, if not Mario. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 14:32, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Hawaii
Whoa, yet another AOI... the EPac/CPac is going crazy. Currently 0/20 on the CPHC outlook and southwest of Hawaii. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:34, September 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:33, September 13, 2019 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
Invested and up to 30/40. Maybe this could become Ema. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:21, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near the Dateline
Yet another one appears on the CPHC 5-day outlook. Currently 0/20. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:15, September 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of Costa Rica
Yet another AOI has popped up on the EPac TWO. 10/30, may bring rain to El Salvador and Guatemala as it parallels the coast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:05, September 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looking quite possible to be Narda. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:03, September 17, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

Potential tropical cyclones (PTCs) not included.

East Pacific:
 * <font color="#eeff77">Alvin : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#AF0">C - Began the EPac season unusually late - the latest ever recorded. Stayed out to sea and barely met the criteria for hurricane intensity.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Barbara : <font color="#95A">0.001%, <font color="#00F">A+ - An early season C4 that peaked just below C5 intensity. Amazing storm in general despite not reaching C5. Barely caused any impacts at all in Hawaii.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Very short-lived forgettable TS, but at least it reached 50 mph.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Four-E : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - Forgettable failure, at least no name was stolen.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dalila : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F00">F - Weak, but lingered for a few days. At least it was better than Gil and Henriette below.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Erick : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#05F">A - Reached C4, but barely. Pretty amazing to track the strongest "Erick" on record. Didn't do jack sh!t to Hawaii.
 * <font color="#eeff77">Flossie : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#AF0">C - Relatively long-lived despite peaking as a minimal hurricane. Passed near Hawaii as a dying storm but no damage or deaths. A bit of a disappointment though because it was initially thought to have a good chance at major status.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - Laughable failure #1 of early August. Lasted not even two days in total (15:00 UTC 8/3 to 3:00 UTC 8/5) and didn't even surpass 40 mph/1006 mb. What a disgrace.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Henriette : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#500">Z - Laughable failure #2 of early August. Lasted even shorter than Gil, lol. And being just 1 mbar stronger doesn't help matters, it still peaked at only 40 mph.
 * <font color="#99ff99">Ivo : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#F60">D- - Barely affected parts of Mexico causing absolutely no real negative effects whatsoever. At least it became a strong 65 mph tropical storm, which saves it from a failing grade, even though it was initially forecast to become a hurricane.
 * <font color="#ffbb00">Juliette : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#0AF">A- - A nice fishspinner and became the first EPac storm to peak as a C3 since Otis in 2017.
 * <font color="#ff7700">Kiko : <font color="#000">TBA, <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates.

Central Pacific:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - A short-lived, pathetic name-stealer. At least it got named in the CPac, which prevents the "Z" grade.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD/SD, <font color="#00faf4">TS/SS (40-50 mph) , <font color="#99ff99">TS/SS (60-70 mph) , <font color="#eeff77">C1 , <font color="#ffee40">C2 , <font color="#ffbb00">C3 , <font color="#ff7700">C4 , <font color="#ff0000">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#880033">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background, the color for "C5" was made more stark due to the severely of such storms, and a new color was added for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) so they would not be in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms that might be Category 6s if the category was introduced. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100% ; <font color="#000">TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: 

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: 

Staying: Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Akoni, Juliette

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * Kiko - Staying

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Retired, Likely Retired, and Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

None yet.

Predicted final replacements to be announced in spring 2020: --



How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Sonia.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Priscilla or Raymond, or go further to Tico or Velma.
 * Wallis or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Octave or before is also unlikely.
 * In the Central Pacific, it is likely that Ema will be used this year. For Hone and beyond, it is looking unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see at most 1 system this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. Any devastating system is most likely to occur in September or October.

East Pacific:
 * Chances that Lorena will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - May arrive in mid-September.
 * Chances that Mario will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - I expect to see this in mid-late September.
 * Chances that Narda will be used: <font color="#300">99.9% - Will most likely be a late-September storm.
 * Chances that Octave will be used: <font color="#700">93% - I expect to see this in early October.
 * Chances that Priscilla will be used: <font color="#B00">80% - Highly likely to reach this name. Expect to see this in October.
 * Chances that Raymond will be used: <font color="#F30">69% - Also likely that we will reach this name, and might be a later October storm.
 * Chances that Sonia will be used: <font color="#F90">55% - Chances are still in favor for the season getting this far. Assuming it does form, it might be in November and might conclude the season.
 * Chances that Tico will be used: <font color="#9D0">40% - Chances decline below a coin toss at this point. If Tico does come, it should be a November or post-season surprise.
 * Chances that Velma will be used: <font color="#0A0">28% - Small chance of getting this far, although I wouldn't count on it.
 * Chances that Wallis will be used: <font color="#05A">13% - Very unlikely to get this far - activity doesn't seem like it will match last year.
 * Chances that Xina will be used: <font color="#00A">6% - 2018 got this far, but last year seemed more active and conducive than this year. I highly doubt we will get this far.
 * Chances that York will be used: <font color="#30A">2% - Surpassing last year? Nah, not happening.
 * Chances that Zelda will be used: <font color="#95A">0.1% - The chances reach almost zero at this point. We're not exhausting the list this year.
 * Chances that Anything beyond (Greeks?) will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - This year will not be anything exceptional. Surpassing 1992 is out of the cards.

Central Pacific: ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:16, August 24, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 03:35, September 17, 2019 (UTC))
 * Chances that Ema will be used: <font color="#F30">65% - I'll give this almost a 2/3 chance. There's still plenty of time left for Ema to develop. We'll see what happens.
 * Chances that Hone will be used: <font color="#0A5">20% - I doubt it.
 * Chances that Iona will be used: <font color="#00A">5% - A miracle CPac explosion shouldn't happen this year.
 * Chances that Keli will be used: <font color="#95A">0.1% - Nope!
 * Chances that Lala or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - 2015-level activity will not happen for sure.

Sandy's retirements and grades
Time to judge the EPac right now!

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#9ACD32">7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#FF69B4">99% , <font color="FF1493">100% , <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#80CCFF">PTC, <font color="#5EBAFF">TD , <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#F3E5AB">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , <font color="#CD7F32">A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z , <font color="#0000FF">TBA )


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Alvin : <font color="00CCFF">B- ,  0%  — The latest recorded start of the basin, Alvin managed to succeed NHC’s forecast and become a minimal hurricane before dying out.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Barbara : <font color="CD7F32">A++ , <font color="00CC00">0.01%  — A beautiful and amazing high-end Category 4 hurricane that had minimal impacts on Hawaii but otherwise, it’s very likely it’ll stay.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme :  E ,  0%  — A relatively short-lived storm that peaked at 50 mph, raising it to an E due to Dailia and Gil.


 * <font color="#5EBAFF">Four-E :  F ,  N/A  — Fail, but at least it wasn’t a name stealer.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Dailia :  F ,  0%  — A failure, but at least it lived longer and was stronger than Gil and Henriette.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Erick :  B ,  0%  — Barely held on to C4 for 12 hours but otherwise, it’s a great storm.


 * <font color="#F3E5AB">Flossie : <font color="3333CC">C- ,  0%  — Well underperformed its forecast for a C3, only peaking at an 80 mph C1 hurricane. It was long-lived however, so I’ll give her credit to that.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil :  Z ,  Fail%  — Gilma’s brother, that’s all I have to explain.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Henriette :  Z ,  Fail%  — Good job EPac, you produced another failicia! Barely stronger than Gil though.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo :  D- ,  0%  — I was expecting a C3 at the most for this system when it was an invest, but it underperformed miserably and never became a hurricane.


 * <font color="#ffc140">Juliette : <font color="00CC66">A ,  0%  — It was nice to see the first C3 since Otis of 2017.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni :  E ,  0%  — A weak and short-lived storm, but gets credit for forming in the CPac and pulling off a surprise formation.

That’s it for now folks!

 Sandy 156   :)  23:46, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

[Updated as of 22:04, September 8, 2019 (UTC)]

Harveycane's predictions and grades
Overview=

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#D4AF37">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 

Formation chance/retirement percentages:
 * <font color="#666">0% 
 * <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9%  (Nearly 0%)
 * <font color="#00FFFF">1-9%  (Extremely unlikely)
 * <font color="#00D5D5">10-19%  (Very unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A0A0">20-29%  (Unlikely)
 * <font color="#00A000">30-39%  (Somewhat unlikely)
 * <font color="#FFC800">40-49%  (Medium)
 * <font color="#FF8800">50-59%  (Somewhat likely)
 * <font color="#E80000">60-69%  (Likely)
 * <font color="#B40000">70-79%  (Very likely)
 * <font color="#800000">80-89%  (Extremely likely)
 * <font color="#000000">90-99%  (Nearly certain)
 * <font color="#000080">100%  (Certain)

Retirement predictions and grades=
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Alvin : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#FF0">C- - After over a month and a half we finally get a hurricane. Should have formed much earlier.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Barbara : <font color="#AFFFFF">0.1%, <font color="#00F">A+ - Great storm! Became a high end C4 and looked good at satellite peak. This is what made me gain hope for the basin, until Gil and Henriette came. Only caused minimal damage, so its staying.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cosme : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#F00">E - Short lived, crappy looking like the other fails in the season. However, it at least reached 50 mph.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Four-E : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Thank you for not wasting a name. However, you still were a fail.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Dalila : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - A fail, but at least it didn't fail too bad unlike Gil and Henriette.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Erick : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#0CC">A - Great storm that just barely reached C4 status. It would have a higher grade if it were stronger though.
 * <font color="#D4AF37">Flossie : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#CF0">C - Reached hurricane status, but they forecasted a major once.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gil : <font color="#666">Failippe%, <font color="#600">Z - Come back in 2025 when you're ready to redeem yourself.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Failiette : <font color="#666">Terrible%, <font color="#600">Z - You too, Henriette. You were just as bad as Gil.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ivo : <font color="#666">Noob%, <font color="#300">Z- - You had one job, and that was to be something promising, AT LEAST a hurricane or something. But no, you decided to fail. Please redeem yourself, all three of you, in 2025. By the way, after further thoughts, I decided to give it a Z- for being such a waste of a potentially good storm.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Juliette : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#0CC">A - Congratulaions, you didn’t bust! Jkjk, but nonetheless this was an interesting fishspinner to track.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Kiko : <font color="#999">TBD%, <font color="#999">TBD - Currently active.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Akoni : <font color="#666">0%, <font color="#C00">F - Short lived name stealer. Next!

Overall season rating (tentative): <font color="#FC0">D+  - Unfortunately, the Eastern Pacific isn't doing so good as well. Yes, I am looking at these two pathetic failures. We could be on track to a below average season here. Future storm formation chances = Future storm chances (SUBJECT TO CHANGE):

Eastern Pacific:
 * Lorena - <font color="#000080">100% - This is imminent. We will definitely get this within the next few days from either 91E or 92E, one or the other.
 * Mario - <font color="#000080">100% - Same for this. This will come from one of the two above invests.
 * Narda - <font color="#000000">99% - May likely form from the Central America invest, otherwise it will come hopefully by the end of September.
 * Octave - <font color="#000000">91% - Either in late September (probably not) or early October.
 * Priscilla - <font color="#800000">84% - Most likely going to be an October storm.
 * Raymond - <font color="#B40000">72% - Most likely a mid-October storm. Probably going to break the ongoing trend of every storm named Raymond being the strongest storm of the season.
 * Sonia - <font color="#FF8800">57% - Probably going to be a late-October storm. From here chances of formation drop dramatically.
 * Tico - <font color="#00A000">39% - Unlikely to form. I wont be surprised if this doesn't form.
 * Velma - <font color="#00A0A0">23% - Chances are low, but nonzero.
 * Wallis - <font color="#00D5D5">10% - Nope, we are not getting close to 2018 in any way.
 * Xina - <font color="#00FFFF">3% - A miracle explosion would have to happen, and that is not happening this into the season.
 * York - <font color="#AFFFFF">0.1% - It is almost impossible to reach here.
 * Zelda and beyond - <font color="#666">0% - Yeah, maybe it will. But only in your hypothetical what-might-have-been season.

Central Pacific: Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  03:47, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Ema - <font color="#00D5D5">34% - Chances for a second Central Pacific storm aren’t as low as I thought.
 * Hone - <font color="#AFFFFF">0.8% - Almost impossible to form at this point.
 * Iona and beyond - <font color="#666">0% - Trust me, a hyperactive Atlantic season this year will still be more likely than reaching here.

East Pacific Hurricane:
''Like the Atlantic, this has also been an inactive year so far(per Accumulated Cyclone Energy). The El Niño has disappeared, and conditions have become neutral. Will this basin have any hope of seeing a strong fishspinner storm within these next few months? Yeah, I think it'll happen.''
 * Hurricane Alvin - Nice storm, won't be retired this year. (0%)
 * Hurricane Barbara - Strongest storm so far, won't be retired. (0%)
 * Hurricane Erick - Another fishspinner C4, it won't be retired. (0%)
 * Hurricane Flossie - Again, won't be retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Ivo - Almost became a hurricane. (0%)
 * Tropical Storms Cosme, Dalila, Gil, and Henriette - Failures, all failures. (0%)

Central Pacific Hurricane:
''No named storms have formed in the Central Pacific Basin as of August 2019. However, these two storms have crossed over into the basin:'' TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:42, August 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Erick - Formidable hurricane in the Central Pacific, but won't get retired. (0%)
 * Tropical Storm Flossie - Became weak when it entered this basin. Did affect Hawaii, though. (0%)

Beatissima's Retirement Predictions

 * Alvin - 0%
 * Barbara - 0%
 * Cosme - 0%
 * Four-E - N/A
 * Dalila - 0%
 * Erick - 0%
 * Flossie - 0%
 * Gil - 0%
 * Henriette - 0%
 * Ivo - 0%
 * Juliette - 0%
 * Akoni - 0%
 * Kiko - currently active

Post-season Changes
Four-E's TCR has been released.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:24, August 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * That was fast...4-E's TCR was finished less than a month after it formed. But wasn't surprising, considering how short-lived and insignificant it was. Anyways, duration was cut a day short. Now do Cosme, Dalila, and Gil in that time frame, NHC. Ryan1000 09:33, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Cosme also out too.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

No changes to Cosme's intensity, but duration got cut 1 day short. Ryan1000 20:37, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Dalila is out, but was finished on the 9th, only two weeks after it dissipated. Fairly fast, and only the pressure was downed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 11:45, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Minor mistake, Dalila's wind speeds were actually upped 5 mph in its TCR.  Sandy 156   :)  06:59, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

Alvin's TCR is out, but was finished by August 22. Only held hurricane status for 6 hours but other than that, no major changes have been made.  Sandy 156   :)  ~ Remember 9/11 05:04, September 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Barbara is out, but was finished on August 25. Pressure got buffed to 930 but it wasn't upgraded to a cat 5. Also, duration was cut a day short. Ryan1000 11:53, September 15, 2019 (UTC)