Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season/Noru

Tropical Storm Noru
In the midst of the parade of storms in the EPAC, a new tropical storm has sprouted in the Western Pacific. Noru, the fifth of the season, currently has winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1008 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. They expect the storm to gradually intensify to 50 knots (60 mph)/992 mbar (hPa) as it moves westwards. Meanwhile, the JTWC, which has designated Noru Tropical Depression 07W, with winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 40 knots (50 mph). Given that there will be favorable conditions such as low shear and SSTs of approximately 30°C in Noru's projected path, the JTWC expects intensification to 65 knots (75 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 80 knots (90 mph). Additionally, they mention the probability of Noru undergoing a Fujiwhara interaction with the JMA tropical depression below. If this occurs, this storm will move rather erratically around the other depression before the jet stream carries the former away. Alternatively, the JTWC note that Noru and the JMA tropical depression may never interact. In that case, the former will recurve northeast due to the jet stream. Regardless, it will be cool to witness this Fujiwhara, especially on the heels of the interaction between Greg and Tropical Depression Eight-E in the Eastern Pacific. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:20, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * JTWC still has Noru as a TD. Ten-minute winds are at 40 mph (65 kph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:18, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * I think this is the one the GFS says will become an 873 millibar behemoth on July 30th for some reason. I don't think it's gonna happen. How can there be a sub-880 millibar category 5 around 30 degrees N in the West Pacifiic? I've never heard of one.
 * Link to this insane forecast model run.
 * Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:45, July 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now JTWC upgraded Noru as a TS. Hi!-70.190.5.175 14:58, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * IbAHan, I highly doubt that Noru will become that strong, especially when considering its potential Fujiwhara with Kulap. Regarding Noru, the JMA is still reporting the same intensity as my last post, but they now forecast the storm to become a typhoon with winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa). The JTWC is reporting winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute sustained) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph), and they expect intensification to 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute), with gusts of 85 knots (100 mph). Motionwise, both agencies forecast Noru to move generally westwards for the next three days. Afterwards, both a low pressure system (probably the active JMA tropical depression or Invest 99W below) and Kulap will cause Noru to move erratically around the latter, as well as induce rapid weakening. However, it sure would be nice to see a typhoon in the WPAC; the only other time that no typhoons had occurred by this date was 1998! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:03, July 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru continues to organize and intensify. It is also rivaling Kulap (and Roke) in intensity; the JMA estimates that Noru has winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa). They now expect this storm to become fairly strong - 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute) /955 mbar (hPa) is the new forecast peak. The JTWC is also estimating winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute sustained) as well, with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph). Given the favorable shear and outflow ahead of Noru, the latter agency prognosticates that this storm will attain winds of 75 knots (85 mph) (1-minute) and gusts of 90 knots (105 mph). Also, the JTWC observes that the forecast models now unanimously foresee some interaction between Noru and Kulap, which will weaken both systems later on in the forecast period. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:34, July 22, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Noru
It's upgraded into a STS, now at 60 mph (10-min) / 992 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:31, July 23, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Noru
Yep, it's now a typhoon — at least in JMA standards. Still a TS on (the actually unofficial) JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:53, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at a Category 2 Typhoon on 1-min mean. Hi!-70.190.5.175 15:40, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru has intensified rather quickly! It is already the season's strongest storm! Maybe GFS was on to something with their wild prediction (although I still doubt that the typhoon will become that strong) ! The JMA is currently estimating winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute sustained), with a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa). They expect Noru to reach winds of 85 knots (10-minute) over the next few days, with a pressure of 950 mbar (hPa). The JTWC is specifically reporting winds of 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute sustained) , with gusts of 105 knots (120 mph). As various ridges cause Noru to possibly execute an erractic path over the open Pacific, low shear and warm SSTs should prompt continued intensification. For now, the JTWC forecasts the typhoon to attain winds of 110 knots (120 mph) (1-minute) , with gusts of 135 knots (155 mph). Afterwards, the anticipated interaction between Noru and Kulap will cause the former to enter a region of dry air and increased shear, consequently prompting gradual weakening. Also, for trivia, Noru is the second-latest first typhoon on record in the WPAC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:56, July 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru has suddenly began to weaken, however, the forecast still shows some restrengthening. Noru could peak stronger in the next advisory than it did earlier. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:00, July 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Models are now taking Noru into the Tokyo-Yokohama area as a very strong typhoon. Japan should be prepared for this storm, because it has the potential to be very catastrophic. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:27, July 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru just keeps persisting! The forecast shows Noru weakening into a 75 mph (1-min) typhoon. Then, it curves south and restrengthens. If Noru keeps this up, we could see one of the longest lasting storms in the basin. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:35, July 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now I'm fearing this storm won't be good for Japan. One forecast model (saw it on Twitter, I believe it's GFS but I am really not sure) brings this to the Kantō region as a 938 mb typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:12, July 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope not. Japan should really prepare just in case, as this could be very bad if models pan out. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:20, July 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I just saw the newest GFS model run for the WPac. The GFS makes Noru a very strong C4 typhoon brushing against the coast of Tokyo, which could lead to problems. No major landfall impacts, fortunately. T  G  2 0 1 7 23:52, July 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Euro also backs that claim, taking it into Tokyo as a 923 mbar typhoon in 240 hours, and both models make it a cat 5, with 890 mbars by the latest GFS run. However, I personally think it's far exaggerated, since Noru isn't particularly well-looking right now, and this is still 240 hours out. Ryan1000 12:00, July 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * However, Ryan, the conditions for Noru will be very conducive when Noru tracks northeast towards Japan. Unfortunately, it is looking likely that Noru will be our first Super Typhoon, and it could threaten land. Japan is no stranger to strong typhoons, but this one could be a re-Songda or even a re-Flo. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:40, July 28, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Noru (2nd time)
Downgraded to a STS by the JMA. However, it is still a typhoon according to JTWC. T G  2 0 1 7 01:49, July 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * The models are now showing Noru moving away from Japan, which is a very big relief if it is true. We don't need a devastating super typhoon striking Tokyo. The models have shown a weaker Noru also. It peaks at 898 mbar, instead of 889 mbar like the GFS had shown the previous day. The HWRF is probably more accurate, showing a 958 mbar peak before weakening. The CMC keeps Noru as a 965 mbar typhoon. If I merge these all together, I get Noru as becoming a C2-C3 typhoon before recurving away from Japan. T  G  2 0 1 7 14:28, July 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Noru appears to be trying to develop a small yet intense circulation, but if it doesn't get bigger it'll be prone to weakening faster as it nears Japan. The Euro still shows a landfall in the country, but the GFS has been tracking out to sea with the latest few runs. Ryan1000 01:24, July 30, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Noru (2nd time)
JMA just upgraded Noru back to a typhoon. It looks like it's forming an eye; if it does we may soon see another period of RI. ~ KN2731 {talk} 07:47, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, RI is likely, and I wouldn't be surprised if it could beat its old peak intensity of 970 mbar.
 * And now Noru is undergoing an RI. Last night, it was a tropical storm. Now it's a 110 mile per hour, 955 millibar category 2. What's more, the JTWC is now forecasting this typhoon will reach category 4 intensity of 140 miles per hour. I still don't think this will become a category 5, and if it does, I'll legit go crazy. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 16:48, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * KABOOM. Noru is already a category 5. 140 knots, 1912 pressure. Nice timing, Ibahan. Lol. --Emma and V 19:33, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh man, I don't believe it! Noru is already a super typhoon at a Cat. 5? That's crazy! I didn't expect that to become that type of typhoon. Anyway, the intensity is now to 160 mph (1-min mean) and 950 mbar. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 19:49, July 30, 2017 (UTC) P.S. It's not even vandalized IbAHAn, it's actually true.
 * Where did you get this data? I think someone just vandalized the Wikipedia page and said it's a category five. But, then again... PS: Noru IS 950 millibars though, but I think it's a category 3, or even a 4 right now. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 20:07, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Latest GFS run has Noru come towards Japan, then stall and begin to slowly move away, and then suddenly Noru is like "Psyche!" and barrels into Japan. Bad, but funny. Also note that it hits Japan on August 12, which would make Noru a very long-lived storm. Anyway, Noru looks quite good right now, should be a category 4. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 20:14, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * And now Noru is undergoing a round of explosive intensification. 160 mph winds, with a 950 millibar pressure. Although the pressure seems too high, typhoon Haiyan had only an 895 millibar pressure while sporting 195 mph winds. So, it looks like the incredible prediction the GFS made a while back came true, almost. (there is no way the presure will get that low) Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 20:32, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * PS: Noru intensified from a tropical storm to a category five in one day or less.


 * HOLY CRAP!!! Noru became a C5 in 6 hours! I knew it would become strong, but not strengthen into a C5 that fast! Japan really needs to prepare now! :( T  G  2 0 1 7 21:50, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * JMA's pressure only estimates and rounds it to the nearest 5 mbars, the JTWC uses the 1-minute winds and pressure that NHC uses in the Atlantic and EPac (though they're unofficial), but anyways, it looks like I spoke too soon. Noru exploded to a category 5 storm very fast due to its small size. However, it's size is a double-edged sword -- it can weaken just as fast as it strengthened, and I'd be surprised if Noru maintains this intensity when it reaches Japan in a week or so. Ryan1000 22:14, July 30, 2017 (UTC)

...or it could be JTWC way underestimating Noru in the first place.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  22:09, July 30, 2017 (UTC)

Holy crap, this thing just took off. It wasnt even a typhoon at this time yesterday, and now it's a category 5! It's intensified so fast that the pressure is pretty high for a storm of this intensity, similar to Hurricane Matthew last year. Japan really needs to be on the lookout for this one. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:20 July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like Noru is cooling off (I think) after it intensified into a Category 5. It is now a Category 4, the intensity at 150 mph (1-min mean) /940 mbar. It's heading north towards Japan. Japan better prepare for this system. 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 02:52, July 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 150 mph per JTWC, pressure down to 935 mb. JMA says its 10-minute sustained winds are now at 110 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:58, July 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * JTWC downgraded the winds to 145 mph while JMA upgraded it to 115 mph. Pressure down to 930 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 17:36, July 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 125 mph (JTWC), still 115 mph on JMA. I am kinda amused that Noru's pressure became lower when it became weaker wind-wise (at least operationally; I feel that Noru's real pressure was lower than 930 mb before it weakened to a C4). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:05, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

Down to 120 mph (1-minute sustained) according to JTWC, but still at 115 mph (10-minute sustained) on JMA's scale. Pressure went back to 935 mb. Noru is now forecast to hit southern Japan (Kyushu) within the coming days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:46, August 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noru is weakening. 165 kph (105 mph) in JMA's 10-minute scale, 185 kph (115 mph) in JTWC's. Pressure up to 940 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:17, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Didn't really expect a C5 earlier, but looks like it's weakening now. JTWC forecast track takes it towards southern Japan as possibly still a typhoon, and I hope they're preparing themselves. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:14, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Noru is pretty amazing. That eye is MASSIVE. Like, Carmen level massive. What is more scary is that the GFS is calling for a 871 MB direct hit on Japan. 20:47, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, before striking Japan, Noru is forecast to restrengthen into a Category 3 typhoon. This is not good. Noru has been an amazing storm, though. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:59, August 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also, Emma, Noru's eye is not even close to that size. Noru is a very small storm, but yes, the eye is 90 miles wide. Carmen had a 230 mile wide eye. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:05, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * And so it is a Cat. 3. It intensified into 120 mph (1-min mean) and it's still at 940 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 02:41, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast from the JTWC takes Noru back up to cat 4 strength in the east China sea, and then it could possibly hit either southern Japan or even South Korea as a category 3 storm. Either way, this could be one of the strongest storms to hit the area in a long time and it bears watching. Ryan1000 04:04, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * My apologies Tornado, I did not know that. I thought Carmen was around 100M, because I thought it was a small storm as well. But, man. Carmen's eye must have really been massive. 2.5x the size of Noru's really puts it into perspective.Emma and V 14:29, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Its intensity is now down to 115 mph (1-min mean) / 100 mph (10-min mean) and 945 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:32, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now winds are down to 110 mph in 1-min mean. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:05, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 90 mph in 10-min and 85 mph in 1-min. And pressure down to 950 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:51, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Dang, that eye is big, especially so yesterday. It was almost 100 miles across! Anyway, Noru is forecast by the JTWC to make landfall in Japan at 75 mph, and that is after strengthening to about 100 mph. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 16:53, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now 75 knots (roughly 85 mph). This is expected to reach 90 knots before landfall, but it is probably still able to get stronger than that if conditions favor it. I hope those in southern Japan prepare. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:05, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's starting to restrengthen (80 knots currently). JTWC still forecasts 100 knots before it strikes Japan. The Wikipedia article for Noru mentions that this is actually one of the longest-lived WPac storms on record. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:21, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's getting closer to Kyushu. Noru is currently affecting the small southwestern islands of Japan, and it's moving slowly. (despacito anyone?) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:22, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * With my info that I've gathered up, Noru is the third-longest lasting typhoon in this basin. This could rival Typhoon Wayne for second place. I won't go as far as Typhoon/Hurricane John though. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:04, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wayne lasted for 22 days, while Noru currently last for about 18 days. It has a chance to tie with Wayne for second place. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:54, August 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Digital Typhoon (of Japan) says otherwise though; according to them it was Rita in 1972 that lasted the longest. 1967's Opal was the second longest-lasting. Wayne was only 3rd. So far, Noru 2017 is 4th. John in 1994, while being the longest-lasting storm overall, is not the longest-lasting in WPac as it was just a crossover cyclone. (By the way, I don't trust NOAA's Hurricane Research Division that much in WPac info; HRD says Page in 1990 was the longest-lasting one in WPac.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:36, August 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Rita lasted 22 days, the same amount of time that Wayne did both are the second longest-lasting. Opal lasted 19 days, Noru has lasted 18, and is forecast to last 19-21 days. Noru should be the third-longest lasting typhoon on record after it dissipates. Typhoon Page is the longest lasting inside of the WPac basin, lasting for 28 days (remnant low to post-tropical cyclone). T  G  2 0 1 7 20:40, August 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is most likely that the Digital Typhoon site only considered the days that these tropical cyclones were really tropical, thus not including the post-tropical phase of these storms. Thanks for the clarification TG. Guess HRD's data is still [somehow] correct too. So, the longest-lasting overall is John (1994), while the longest-lasting in WPac can be split between 1990's Page — if we will include the days typhoons were not tropical in nature (i.e. subtropical, post-tropical, etc.) — and 1972's Rita (if we will only consider the days these typhoons were tropical). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:46, August 6, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Noru (3rd time)
Downgraded to severe tropical storm status by JMA. 975 mb, 70 mph (10-minute sustained). Still a C1 with 75 mph (1-minute sustained) winds on JTWC's SSHWS though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:46, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Throughout the small southern islands of Japan, Noru has killed two people. Noru hasn't even made landfall yet and that happened. Noru will be passing directly over Kyoto as a TS tomorrow, and Noru should be gone by August 10. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:59, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, some of the GFS assembles seem to point to Noru entering back into the ocean, some even suggest intensifying, and one even shows Noru getting close to the central pacific, which is VERY interesting. I don't think it will happen, but maybe. Emma and V 18:52, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * It should impact some areas that Nanmadol hit last month. I really doubt that it will last further from August 10. Japan already is prepared, right? If not, then it will cause a lot of deaths (maybe that's not happening). Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:31, August 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Noru already made landfall in Japan. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:18, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Noru just now is making landfall in Hirogawa, Japan, which is a fairly large town. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:15, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * JTWC downgrades it to a TS, 65 mph on 1-min. 10-min winds are 60 mph. Pressure is 980 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:39, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope the southern regions of Japan came out unscathed (except for the 2 deaths, RIP :. Noru should finally dissipate soon, after becoming one of the longest lasting WPac storms on record. It's incredible that this is the JTWC's 72nd warning for Noru. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:04, August 7, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Noru (2nd time)
Weakened to a TS according to JMA (45 mph) and it weakened to a TD according to JTWC (35 mph). Pressure up to 986 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:33, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Pressure became 985 mbar. Still 30 mph (1-minute sustained) according to JTWC, 45 mph (10-minute sustained) in JMA's scale. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:20, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Noru really looks like he/she is done for. Right now, according to official information, Noru is the second-longest lasting typhoon on record. The forecast makes Noru the longest lasting, tying with Rita and Wayne. This is Noru's 21st day as an active storm. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:15, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * What a storm. It's now finally dying, but it was fun while it lasted. Hope that the impacts are not that severe. (Side note: Noru is actually Korean for 'roe deer' so I guess the right pronoun should be 'it'.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:09, August 8, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Noru
Now finally gone after 21 days of traveling. What a storm. Bye Noru! Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:38, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I would've suggested that Noru should have a separate archive due to its longevity. However, since its impact (reported impact) in Japan isn't that severe, then I think Noru should stay here. This storm is one for the record books, although I do not see any strong possibility (yet) for its name to be retired. Oh well, goodbye Noru. Thanks for the fun. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:51, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I honestly think it should also be archived by itself. Noru was an amazing storm! T  G  2 0 1 7 16:56, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Am already missing Noru-kun's amazing talent. When we will have another Noru-kun? (I couldn't stop thinking about Norway from Hetalia when this storm was active. Yes, a storm named after my own country! Ahahaha. For your information, Noruue (ノルウェー) means Norway in Japanese) 169.51.72.247 00:25, August 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * 169.51.72.247 00:25, August 12, 2017 (UTC)