Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

August
Welcome to August in the EPac! I hope it'll become more active here and hopefully we'll see another major! I predict 6 depressions, 5 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane in the EPac for August. Let's make it an epic month! :) (Oh, and it'll really help if we archive the older discussions that are about storms that died out, I'm having some trouble navigating this page) --  Steve  820  ✉   19:55, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Steve, I was going to wait until 0000 UTC to make this...you could not wait another four hours? Anyway, I predict 8 depressions, 7 storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE of around 50 units. The EPAC should turn around this month like it did in 2009! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:13, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * I couldn't wait another 4 hours because I wanted to beat you to the punch. :) --  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (July 19)
Left Africa yesterday. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Atlantic forum link: 3 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * HWRF devlops this into something strong by day 5. Currently in the EPAC. YE Pacific Hurricane  17:06, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope this becomes something, but the wave is going to develop very gradually. It has a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance for the next five days per the NHC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:32, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * If the above invest becomes Iselle, this might have a slight chance of becoming Julio but I wouldn't count on it. Development should happen only slowly. --  Steve  820  ✉   01:35, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Showers and thunderstorms are rather disorganized in the AOI, and any development of it will be gradual as it moves westwards at 10 mph. The system is on the TWO with a near 0% chance of formation for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:32, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * In my opinion, gradual development will result in Julio in a few days. C'mon, AOI! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:46, July 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/40. Could be somewhat strong as well. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:43, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Whoa! Despite disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, conditions are conductive for some gradual development over the next few days. Chances of formation are now at 30% for the next 48 hours and 70% in the next five days. I hope another hurricane comes from this! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:12, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
40/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:17, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope another hurricane comes from this :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:56, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * It may be disorganized, but environmental conditions will favor a TD by early next week from 97E. I don't know what to expect, however. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * SHIPS make this a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:26, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has become better organized! At this rate, we could see a TD by tomorrow morning! Chances of formation are now at 60% for the next two days and 90% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:51, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Models are very aggresive with this one. They are showing a major of Julio.Allanjeffs 05:51, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * 97E has changed little in organization over the past several hours, but it still has huge potential to become a TD. Allan, since this invest is right behind Iselle, I personally believe it could struggle a little to intensify. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:13, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really think we could see a major from future Julio. 80% for the next 48 hours and near 100% for five days, wow, I've never seen such a certain 5 day outlook before!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:32, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * 90/100. Models have came down slightly, but could be very powerful when it nears the islands. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:22, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I wouldn't rule out the possibility of it becoming something powerful. It's in favorable conditions and I expect a depression to form by tonight! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:32, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity in 97E is closing in on the center, but the overall structure of the system is rather disorganized. Nevertheless, I won't be surprised if advisories begin to get issued at 2100Z. Also, the JTWC has issued a TCFA on 97E. Located at 14.1N 115.3W, 271 nm south of Clarion Island, MSI reports the LLCC is consolidating, and a 1549Z SSMIS microwave image shows most of the invest's convection is in the western quadrant. With low VWS, good outflow, and conductive SST's, they also hint at TC development. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:24, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten-E
30 knts. Forecast is tricky, but it will likely be a hurricane. Shear (early on) and SST's upwelled from Iselle (later on) could limit intensification. A long-range Hawaii threat, and if the CMC run verifies, a trough could allow for it to pass close to Kaui. I would not bet on a major, but hey, Iselle did it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:25, August 4, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julio
The new kid, could be our 4th MH of the season. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  07:12, August 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * As you would expect from EPac. :) I expect it to become a strong major following Iselle towards Hawaii, but it won't be affecting them until a week from now, if not later. Ryan1000 12:03, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * There is some shear which could very well get in the way for another 36-48 hours. Thereafter, it should be very favorable, so yes, it could become a major then. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:33, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * I also expect Julio to be a major. Environmental conditions are very favorable and I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches Iselle's current strength by the end of the week. Hopefully it becomes a major! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:58, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Julio has been pegging at 50 kts for a while now. The forecast peak is 75 kts, down from 90 kts yesterday. We could still see a hurricane here, but I'm not sure about a major :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:47, August 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't believe this will be a major but it might but it has two days I believe before moving into the cold wake of Iselle.Allanjeffs 17:04, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * It has 5 days over semi-favorable conditions. It could become a major, but the intensity forecast for this is quite tricky. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:59, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Julio has strengthened to 55 kts (65 mph)/998 mbars, personally, I'd give a 15% chance for it to reach major status. It's not out of the question but it still seems slightly possible. It will probably be a hurricane by tomorrow but I predict a peak at Cat. 2 strength with the slight shot at major status. Go, Julio, go! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:57, August 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Be careful what you wish for, Steven, for Julio could threaten Hawaii like Iselle is doing currently. Ryan1000 00:46, August 6, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Julio
65 kts/989 mbar. Fifth hurricane of the season, and the first one named Julio since 1990 (which is the only other Hurricane Julio to date). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:50, August 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * NHC is now pretty confident that this will go north of Hawaii in the long run, which is good news considering they'll be taking some flooding from Iselle in a few days. Ryan1000 20:05, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Luckily it might miss Hawaii to the north. Now, we can start rooting for it to get strong, hopefully it becomes a major even though that seems a bit unlikely at this point! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:35, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Forecast track has sifted south. I don't think this will become a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:16, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Neither do I, but it'll still likely miss the islands. Surf could be an issue on parts of the northern shores but I don't think Julio will make a landfall on the islands like Iselle will tomorrow. It's still kinda far in advance and things could change, but I already have enough bad feelings from Iselle...let's cross our fingers on Julio. Ryan1000 03:08, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I am also starting to not think this would be a major, but luckily it's going to miss Hawaii! Might bring some rough surf though. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:13, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would not be so sure on it missing Hawaii. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:38, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

Well, there's a chance it might not head as far north as NHC currently anticipates and hit Hawaii in the long run, but I hope that doesn't happen. Btw, Julio is now at 100 mph. Major hurricane status might not be out of the question after all. Ryan1000 11:48, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's now up to 105 mph, so maybe we could see a major out of it? It'll probably only be a borderline major though, peaking around 115 mph according to my predictions. It seems to be a slight threat to Hawaii but luckily it's not going to make landfall like Iselle is about to do. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:15, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF keeps this at 90 knts. Still has a shot to be a major though. Why is everyone so discounting Hawaii? It should brush it to it's north, but maybe require TS/Hurricane watches. NHC track IMO is too far north. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:47, August 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio continues to become better organized I am sure it can strength more as condtions are not that bad the NHC has been pretty conservative with him. I can see an upgrade to cat 3 in the next advisory. I doubt it affects Hawaii though.Allanjeffs 23:49, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree Allan. Tel me NHC, how is this not a major hurricane? YE, I'm strongly discounting an actual landfall from Julio, the northern shores of the islands will see some high surf or rain showers but the center of Julio is probably not going to hit (unless it tracks much further south than NHC currently anticipates, which I don't expect to happen). Ryan1000 23:58, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * There is more uncertainty than usual. It should pass a little south of the NHC track IMo, but still somewhat north of Hawaii. NHC made a mistake by considering the SAB and TAFB estimates, hence why it is 90 knts, rather than a Cat 3. Convection somewhat warm as well. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:14, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * When will it be upgraded? It looks exactly like a major at this moment. It has a perfect eye and just looks awesome on satellite imagery. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:52, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * For all intents and purposes, it is one right now and should be upgraded ASAP: EP, 10, 2014080800,, BEST, 0, 173N, 1384W, 100, 966, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1011, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, JULIO, D, I.E 115 mph and 966 mbars. Ryan1000 01:03, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

I was just about to say Ryan, the 0z models are initializing Julio at 100 kts so we should expect an upgrade at the next advisory. BTW, where did you get the ATCF info, just out of curiosity? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:05, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, I assume you know that the homepage for the NOAA ATCF is here, within that, you'll notice a lot of subsections, click on the subsection that says "fix/" to get the latest "fixed" advisory and position on the storm (you may have to open it in a computer program like Microsoft Word) then scroll down to the very bottom since it includes all of the advisories on the storm. For example, Julio is fep102014, which is fixed epac storm 10 (Julio), year 2014. On the latest on Julio, it shows 102 knots btw. Ryan1000 01:25, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Julio
Actually Ryan I wasn't aware, thanks for the information! Anyway, Julio is officially a major per the NHC. The next advisory will be issued by the CPHC. Julio is the third major in what, four days? The northern Pacific Ocean as a whole has been going absolutely bonkers this week, what with Halong in addition to the EPAC/CPAC's trio of success stories (Iselle, Genevieve, and now Julio). This has been an interesting year so far and will continue to be such. NHC says that Julio is annular now, btw; how often is it that two or more annular hurricanes form in the same season? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:57, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Eye temperatures have warmed in Julio's eyewall and convection has gotten a little stronger. Based on Dvorak estimates, the NHC has upped Julio's winds to 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h), accompanied by a pressure of 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg). And yes, the hurricane is rather symmetric; it must be trying to pull an Iselle. Due to a lack of change in SST and shear conditions, Julio should hang on there for another few days before its annular structure gets killed by a contrast of warmer SST's and increasing shear. The hurricane should move generally WNW under the influence of the STR to its north and then turn westwards as the ridge gets stronger. This is definitely something I did not expect from Julio. Maybe it's the MJO, but really weird things are going on right now in the Pacific. And Dylan, remember 2011? Adrian and Dora both were annular for a little. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:55, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * The EPac is getting crazy with all these majors. This is the third major in less than a week! Hoping it'll avoid Hawaii, they don't need another hit right after Iselle. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:09, August 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually I just saw the forecast track and it takes it north of Hawaii, so luckily it'll miss the Hawaiians. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:14, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Julio (2nd time)
Down to 90 knts per latest advisory. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:26, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks like the remains of Iselle could shear this as it heads northwest, Hawaii will probably get off easy from this. Ryan1000 21:31, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio is still very organized, and a clear 15 nm wide eye is visible on satellite imagery. Based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from the JTWC and SAB, along with numbers of T5.3 from UW-Madison, the CPHC still holds winds of 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) with a pressure of 966 mbar (hPa; 28.53 inHg). Julio is currently being steered WNW by the STR to its north; the models get a little crazy in a few days when a gap in the trough occurs. With shear beginning to build up around the hurricane, it should start to gradually weaken. While Julio doesn't seem to pose that great of a threat to Hawaii, interests there should still monitor it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:11, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio's eye is beginning to get a little cloud-filled based on satellite imagery, meaning dry air could kick in very soon. Based on a variety of Dvorak estimates, the hurricane's intensity has been lowered to 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h)/979 mbar (hPa; 28.91 inHg). Due to a weakening in the STR north of the Hawaiian islands, many of the models are shifting their trajectory for Julio further north away from the region. With increasing VWS and SST's of 26-27C in the hurricane's forecast path, gradual weakening is still to be expected for the time being. It looks like Hawaii is about to get spared from being drenched...again! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:59, August 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, luckily Hawaii is going to spared again. They don't need another potentially destructive storm approaching them. Anyways, Julio was a fun storm to track, especially since it barely made it to major status. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   19:01, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Recon data found winds of 95 knots (110 mph) in Julio. Combined with various Dvorak estimates, including the JTWC and SAB, the hurricane's winds have been maintained, but it's pressure has been risen slightly to 980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg). The weakening STR to Julio's north and a digging upper-level trough NW of Hawaii will allow it to continue its WNW motion. Most models take the hurricane to the north of Hawaii, but heavy surf along the state's northern and eastern coasts can still be expected for the next few days. SST's of 26C should not be a problem for Julio, but increasing VWS associated with the trough could prompt Julio's gradual weakening. Of note is the fact the latest CPHC forecast maintains Julio as a strong TS for the next five days. This could help it get a strong boost in its ACE. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:30, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio's eyewall has become less defined, and all Dvorak estimates are now at T4.5. Thus, the hurricane's intensity has been lowered to 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h) with a pressure of 982 mbar (hPa; 29.00 inHg). Julio is moving more NW now, with a northwards turn expected in ~4 days due to the influence from a mid-latitude trough. VWS has increased to 18 knots over the hurricane, which should increase the rate of weakening. However, the CPHC keeps it at hurricane intensity for another day or so before bringing it back down to TS intensity. Well, even if Julio does not do anything more, I would like to point out it is the earliest fifth major hurricane in a season since Frank '92. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  06:01, August 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ok. ok. I think Julio is a hit with the ladies. He had Genny, Iselle, Bertha.... (and oh GOD knows what Bertha is doing to the UK right now... :o) Agreed?  “i liek turtlez 19:49, August 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Liz, Bertha's remnants might already be approaching the UK, and since you live there, stay safe! Anyways, Julio was an impressive hurricane, and it appears to be in a weakening trend at this moment. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   02:44, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Ex-Bertha already hit the UK. Anyway, with Julio, despite a well-defined LLCC, it is becoming difficult to locate on visible imagery and the eye has basically collapsed. Dvorak estimates are down to T4.0 based on NESDIS imagery. Consequently, the CPHC has lowered the hurricane's winds to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) with a pressure of 986 mbar (hPa; 29.12 inHg). Julio is still moving NW, but it will soon come under the influence of SE flow from a trough, which should prompt a more NE movement over the next few days. During this time, the hurricane is bound to enter a region of SW shear and increasing dry air. Extratropical transition is expected in ~120 hours per the CPHC due to Julio losing its warm core. At this point, heavy surf should be all Hawaii receives from the system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:00, August 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, it looks like Julio is beginning to collapse and should become extratropical by the end of the week. Bye, Julio, luckily you missed Hawaii, unlike Iselle! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:22, August 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * High clouds now obstruct Julio's center, obscuring the LLCC, and a 15Z SSMIS microwave image reveals most of its strongest convection is in its NW quadrant. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from SAB and JTWC, as well as T4.5 from the CPHC, the intensity of Julio has been lowered to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) with a pressure of 988 mbar (hPa; 29.18 inHg). Westerly winds should steer the hurricane more NE from its current NW motion in ~4 days. Although SST's will remain conductive for the next few days, increasing SW shear should prompt Julio to continue its gradual weakening phase. Afterwards, decreasing SST's and even more shear will quicken the pace of weakening. Swells in Hawaii from the hurricane will continue to diminsh today. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:06, August 12, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julio (2nd time)
Much of Julio's convection is now displaced to its north. Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.0 from SAB, T3.5 from the JTWC, and T4.0 from the CPHC, the system's intensity has been lowered to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.24 inHg). The NE turn should commence in a couple of days, along with an acceleration in forward speed four to five days down the road. A similar forecast logic is given by the CPHC from the last advisory on Julio, with extratropical transition expected in ~5 days. All surf should have receded from Hawaii in relation to Julio, so nothing should be harmed from here on out! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  06:46, August 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * Deep convection in Julio is now confined to the northern and NW quadrants, with a partial eyewall persisting in the northern semicircle based on microwave passes wrapping into the SW quadrant. Julio's intensity is 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h)/995 mbar (hPa; 29.39 inHg) ATM per the CPHC, but Dvorak estimates suggest an even lower intensity. A trough approaching from the NW is inhibiting outflow from that direction, and 15 kts of SW VWS are also attacking the storm. Because SST's remain at ~27C and conditions are seldom expected to change, Julio should only gradually weaken over the next couple of days, but increasing shear afterwards will speeden the pace up. The storm has started to slow down due to its guiding STR weakening from the incoming trough, which should eventually carry it more NE. Julio has lasted an impressively long time and persisted much further north than I expected. In fact, I'm starting to think of 2002's Fausto a little bit, which also made it very far north. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:00, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Have you look at the storm or the ATCF file lately? Julio is up to 60 knts, and has made a comeback over warm SSt's and low shear. It would not shock me if this becomes a hurricane again. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:23, August 13, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Julio (3rd time)
The EPAC does it again. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:20, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow, Julio! You're a great fighter! I didn't really expect it to restrengthen to hurricane status. Latest advisory has the storm at 75 mph/989 mbars. Impressive indeed, but weakening is forecast from here on out with it dissipating by Saturday. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:40, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah the giant trough to the northwest of Julio should kill it in a day or two, but I'm impressed, this storm is hanging on nicely (not as nicely as Genny but still). Ryan1000 10:49, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Okay, what? I noticed Julio had the developing eyewall, but hurricane intensity? This was not expected. And as a matter of fact, the pressure has dropped to 988 mbar (hPa; 29.18 inHg) since the last advisory. Since shear has let out as well and SST's are still conductive, this fighter could hold on for another day or so before anything stops it. Heck, the CPHC noted Julio could actually stay tropical during the next five days, which would be awesome to witness. The trough closing on the hurricane will cause its NE turn in a few days or so, as the guidance shows. In a way, Julio is like the 2002 incarnation of Fausto - both storms unexpectedly intensified well to the north of Hawaii, although Julio is much stronger than Fausto ever was in its second life. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:18, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * It was unexpected to me too. Well, congrats on regaining hurricane strength Julio! However, it should start weakening from here on out and dissipate by the weekend.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:58, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * 70 knts pear ATCF. Looks 70-75 knts IMO. This is one of six hurricanes to exist at 30N or higher. Only two made it to 40N. Julio won't make it there IMO, but impressively nevertheless. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:01, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * For the record, in terms of ACE, this year's EPac season has gotten to 85 thus far (62.3 from EPac, 23.3 in CPac, Julio has contributed to about 12 of this), and if this keeps up, this year's ACE could be well-above normal. Unlikely to be hyperactive though. Ryan1000 20:49, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * And Julio is still not done yet. Thunderstorms have completely re-wrapped around eye, and despite a slight decrease in satellite presentation, the hurricane's winds have been raised up to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h), with a pressure of 984 mbar (hPa; 29.06 inHg). But don't expect any more strengthening. A pair of deep ridges from the west and east are already cutting off outflow from the northern semicircle and steering Julio more northwards, with a turn more NE expected later on in the day due to interaction with a deep trough. Low-level ridging will then take the hurricane northwards again after day 3 per the latest CPHC forecast. Due to all the troughs in place, the CPHC are actually more aggressive with their weakening pace than most models. Shear is going to rapidly increase to 30 knots tonight, but it will subside enough later on in a couple of days that Julio continues a gradual weakening pace. At this point, Julio's ACE is greater than every other storm of the season, except Iselle. Any chance that Julio's ACE will overtop its precedent? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:49, August 13, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julio (3rd time)
Northerly shear is taking its toll on Julio, with the eye feature completely vanished and serious outflow restriction in the northern quadrant. Despite Dvorak estimates ranging between T4.0 and T4.5, Julio's winds have been lowered to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) with a pressure of 986 mbar (hPa; 29.12 inHg). I wouldn't be too surprised, however, if the cyclone is really a hurricane ATM. A weakness in steering flow has tempted some models to suggest a more northerly direction for Julio in the next day or so, but aside from the unreliable BAMD, the models agree on a generally NE path from here on. TVCN has done an amazingly accurate job forecasting the storm. Shear is at a high 20 knots right now, bound to increase to 30 knots within a day or so. SHIPS destroys Julio entirely in ~48 hours, while ECMWF, GFS, and the CPHC show more gradual weakening and dissipation in ~96 hours. I am hoping for the latter scenario, as Julio, like Genny and Doug, has fought long and hard. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:23, August 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * Sorry Andrew, but the trough has deprived Julio of all its deep convection. It looks like a remnant low swirl right now and the last advisory should be issued tomorrow. I have to say, I'm impressed Julio reintensified in the north central pacific, but he still remained well away from land. Ryan1000 23:12, August 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * Julio looks horrid on satellite imagery. Based on a recent ASCAT pass and PHFO and SAB Dvorak estimates of T3.0, Julio's winds have been lowered to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h), with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.36 inHg). A high pressure system should continue to drag the storm northwards for another day, and then potentially turn NW under the influence of another low pressure system, based on the latest CPHC forecast. Since moderate northerly shear is present all around Julio, it might be safe to say in ~24 hours, its time as a TC is done for another six years. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:10, August 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * With Dvorak estimates ranging from T2.0 to 2.5, the CPHC has conservatively lowered Julio's winds to 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h), with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). A continued northward motion is still expected from the storm for another couple of days, followed by a NW turn and then a NE turn in ~72 hours due to an incoming trough and front. Continued weakening is expected from Julio due to moderate shear and decreasing SST's, with degeneration expected in ~24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:10, August 15, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Julio
Well that was quick. I was hoping Julio would become extratropical instead of taking the traditional route of death through becoming a non-convective remnant low, but oh well. Hats off to you, Julio, you were a great storm to track! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:12, August 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Bye bye Julio, you were awesome! It was great tracking you! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:55, August 15, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Tropical Wave (GFS 16 days out)
Just about to roll offshore. GFS already bombs this into a major, and develops it by day 10-12. So, long range. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:29, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't count off development, but any formation will be rather slow to occur. Chances of formation are down to near 0% for the next 48 hours but up to 20% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:35, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * I personally see a TC forming about a week or two out. Chances of formation are up to 30% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:18, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now on the TWO, the AOI is rather disorganized. Although conditions are unfavorable for development for the next couple of days, it is moving into a region of more conductive conditions. Chances of development remain at near 0% for the next two days but increased to 50% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:11, August 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * We will probably see a Karina out of this by mid-week. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:38, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

Up to 10/70, it continues to look better. Karina could come out of this by Thursday/Friday-ish and hopefully we'll see another hurricane from this! And, I decided to make a poll about whether you guys expect to see something out of this or not. I just want to lighten up the forums a bit, so enjoy the poll! :) (Don't complain if you don't like it):

Will this invest become Karina sometime in the future, and will it become a hurricane? Of course it will form, and I predict a hurricane! Of course it will form, but I only predict a tropical storm out of this with maybe a slight shot at hurricane status Of course it will form but it will only peak as a weak/moderate TS Of course it will form but it's too early to predict intensities It might form, but I'm not 100% certain I'm not sure if it will become a TC I really doubt it will develop (Seems like a very unpopular opinion)

-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:00, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Invest'd. Has moderate wind shear to face and SST's may become cold in 4 days pending track. Still, has Kelvin Wave help, and should become a tropical storm if not a minimal hurricane. Maybe a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:59, August 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's also rather large in size, which could slow down development as well. However, I still have high hopes this will become something strong, at least a weak hurricane. Due to the conditions 99E's in right now, I am a little uncertain it is guaranteed to develop in the first place. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:06, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Thanks for voting in my poll guys! Let's see if we can get more people to vote in my poll. Anyways, it's up to 20/80, tropical cyclone formation is looking likely this week out of this invest. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:24, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Has a very good chance. It'd def become a Cat 4/5 if shear can decrease. This seems like one of those systems that find a way to become at least decently strong despite not being forecast to. Still, shear is strong enough to hold off development for a while, and like Julio, should intensify only gradually at first. Still, it is fairly large, so it should fight it off eventually and become at least a mid to high-end TS, maybe even a Cat 1, 2, or even 3 hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:32, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * I expect it to become a decent hurricane out to sea, maybe even a strong major. Ryan1000 20:31, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * 40/80. Needs an LLC though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:44, August 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's become much better organized; as a matter of fact, it looks like a TD to me already. I think we're looking at at least a C1 hurricane from this. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:13, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Appearance isn't everything. I see nothing to suggest we have a closed LLC. Has this even warranted Dvorak classification yet? It looks good though ill admit. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:28, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah this invest looks very good. We could very well see a Hurricane Karina out of this system since conditions are favorable enough in the long term.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:46, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/90. Could be another Hawaii threat down the line in about two weeks per latest models. If it develops quickly, it'll get re-cruved by a trough and out to see. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:06, August 12, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Thunderstorm activity actually weakened a little in the past several hours. Even though conditions are favorable for additional development, I'm not expecting any Dvorak numbers for a day or so. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  06:39, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks nice, just that it is broad and convection is displaced to its LLC due to wind shear. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:56, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * 60/90. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:47, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * 90/90. Convection IMO just needs to increase and we'll have a TC on our hands. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:15, August 13, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Yay.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:56, August 13, 2014 (UTC)

Could be our next major.Allanjeffs 03:33, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yeah I think it'll become a major. This depression should be Karina by tomorrow and it could be a major by the weekend!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉    03:42, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Agreed. Forecast peak of 70 knts is likely conservative, though the track forecast gets tricky after Day 3. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:10, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks very nice, I expect another 4 out of this as it heads west. Hawaii could be threatened in the long run, but for now it's too soon to tell. Ryan1000 10:49, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Nicely done, 99E. For the time being, Dvorak estimates have kept the depression's intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). A ridge over the SW United States is steering Eleven-E WNW, and it should continue this motion based on model guidance. Shear's getting to the depression now, which could explain why it's rather disorganized ATM, but it is forecast to diminish in the next day or so. With plenty of warm SST's and moist air ahead of it, although the latest NHC forecast only takes it to 70 knots (80 mph), I'm going to be a little more aggressive and call for winds of ~100 knots (115 mph), giving us our sixth major. Side comment - SHIPS and LGEM show steady intensification with Eleven-E, but HWRF and GFDL do nothing with it. I have the feeling something unexpected is going to happen, and it's probably RI.  Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:36, August 13, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Karina
Now named Karina. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:57, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * When is the NHC every going to learn from their mistakes and forecast RI? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:38, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I really believe it might RI in the near future. In fact I got a feeling we might even see a strong major out of this. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:54, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF brings it to 40 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:00, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Although dry air and modest northerly shear remain an issue for Karina, it has developed a compact and well-defined circulation. The latest NHC advisory, based on recent ASCAT passes, confirms the ATCF reading - winds of 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). And even this measure assumes the passes under-sampled in the inner core wind field. Karina continues to move generally westward under the influence of the STR to its NE, which it is slated to do for the rest of the forecast period. However, many models have creative paths with the storm after Day 3. Since convection is developing all over the storm, that's a good indicator the dry air can't hold it back any more after a day or so. The NHC notes that aside from cooler and stable air to the W of the system, nothing could potentially stop it from RI or even EI. Speaking of which, I don't understand why the NHC relies on models so much all the time. Their forecast peak of 75 knots (85 mph) seems too low, given the conditions ahead of it. Moreover, guess what three storms also initially were forecast to reach only C1 intensity? Amanda, Cristina, and Iselle! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:29, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Convection continues to increase with Karina, and a tight inner core is being maintained on microwave imagery. Despite constant SAB and TAFB estimates of T3.0, UW-Madison ADT values have prompted the NHC to raise the storm's winds to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) with a pressure of 998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). Currently, ENE shear of 10 to 15 knots continues to restrict eastern outflow in Karina, although it should lessen in the next day or two. Most models predict the storm will gradually intensify under warm SST's and a relatively moist environment, including the NHC, but I still believe RI is possible a couple days out. After four to five days, however, cooler SST's should induce Karina's weakening. As the deep layer ridge to the NE of the cyclone builds, it should continue to move steadily westwards for a few days, until other low-pressure systems interact with the system. GFS steers Karina more northwards, while ECMWF takes it southwards. Regardless of which direction Karina chooses, it won't be affecting land anytime soon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:15, August 14, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Karina
65 kts/989 mbar. Looks like Karina is working hard to redeem itself after the 2008 epic failure of the same name. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:50, August 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * NHC says shear should keep this in check for the next few days, then the shear will weaken when it is over marginal SST's. However, given the decent organization of this thing, it might just take advantage of these marginally favorable conditions and explode to a major, like a few other storms earlier this year (I'm looking at you Amanda and Cristina). Ryan1000 23:09, August 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * This storm is weakening if not maintaining its intensity. ATCF kept it at 65 knts despite a T4.5. 3z discussion is gonna be interesting. I could see anything from 60-75 knts. Beyond that, I could see this fluctuating in intensify for the next 24-48 hours, then intensifying into a Cat 2/3 later on. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:30, August 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Easterly shear has displaced Karina's LLCC from its deep convection, and while TAFB estimates have let the NHC keep the hurricane's intensity, they note that estimate could be a little generous, given cloud tops are warming. A ridge extending from the SW United States is still steering Karina generally westwards, which it should continue to do so for the rest of the forecast period. Interaction with 90E or another disturbance in a few days, however, may slow the hurricane's speed down. With shear continuing to be an issue for intensification, it could now be a struggle for RI to commence, and the NHC has lowered their forecast peak to 70 knots (80 mph). I still think Karina has a shot at RI, but she'll need a little patience. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:16, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * NHC IMO has the forecast messed up. It's too high early on but too low late in the period. The reason for shear is the fact we have a high to its north. This should decrease in a day or so. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:09, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks much weather now. Downgrade to TS is imminent as it hit a wall of shear. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:26, August 15, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Karina (2nd time)
Karina is down to 70mph not going to change the heading as it always mess up. Anyways at the rate we are going and with three more expect it this month we might actually get to the greek letters. Unless activity slows down in September and October. August is the peak of the Epac we should see how it continues.Allanjeffs 09:01, August 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) Shear is continuing to take its toll on Karina, and SAB and TAFB windspeed estimates have prompted the NHC to downgrade the storm's winds to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.24 inHg), and they note even this is being generous. In a few days, nearby tropical disturbances pose a huge forecasting challenge for Karina. ECMWF and the Canadian models show a more WSW direction due to a low pressure system to the east, while UKMET and NAVGEM predict less of an influence and a more westward/northward direction. GFS forecasts interaction with a second disturbance to Karina's SW, suggesting a generally westward direction. The NHC forecast agrees with the ECMWF scenario. Shear should continue to be an issue for the storm in the next day, prompting even more weakening. Afterwards, SST's of 26C could cause some re-intensification as GFDL expects, but just to Karina's north are very cool SST's, which, if it moves over, will weaken the system. I'm still hoping for Karina to become something strong. :) Allan, I hadn't thought of the Greek letters. We're not going as fast as 1992, however, and even that season could not hit the Greeks. And have you tried source mode? That should solve the header issues; just type four "=" signs, "Tropical Storm Karina (2nd time)", and four more "="'s. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:06, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Thanks Andrew, We will see the only thing against reaching the greek letters is that the Epac used more letters than the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 11:38, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * I still slightly doubt we'll go Greek, but we should come close. Anyhow, Karina is a very tricky forecast. We'll see what it does from here on out. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:19, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * After this weakening occurred, I really don't think we'll see a major from this anymore. Though I still root for something strong! :) And I would be very surprised if this season actually made it to Greek letters. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:51, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Down to 40 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:03, August 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 40 kts (45 mph) and forecast to strengthen by the end of the forecast period. She's trying very hard and hanging on for her life... -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:35, August 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still hanging on at 45 mph. She's still trying! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:53, August 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * Karina actually went back up to 45 knots (50 mph) a while ago. Deep convection is still pulsating, but the LLCC is completely detached from Karina's convection. As a matter of fact, even the intensity you said (with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg)), Steve, is being generous based on Dvorak estimates. However, since the storm is entering a region of decreasing shear, it could actually re-intensify a little in the next couple of days, but dry air and modest SST's should prevent RI. Karina's current motion WSW should continue for another few days before steering currents become less of an influence and it turns more westwards. By the end of the NHC forecast, interaction with TD 12-E could force a NE turn, and things will get interesting from there. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:55, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks much better. 21z adv brings it to 50 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:54, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Karina's center is within its convection, and an eye feature may even be trying to form. The pressure has been lowered to 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg), BTW. Since low shear and warm SST's are in the NHC forecast path for the next day, Karina should take advantage and reach winds of 60 knots (70 mph), if not become a hurricane again. Eventually, shear from 12E will destroy the storm. Karina is still moving WNW under the influence of the STR, with a slow turn to the NE as 12E takes over. I hope Karina becomes a hurricane again. :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:35, August 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * A convective band now covers much of Karina, and vertical shear has decreased around the system. A TAFB estimate has prompted the NHC to raise its intensity back to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h), with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.42 inHg). With outflow increasing around Karina, the NHC predicts a hurricane once more, with winds of 65 knots (75 mph) expected in the next day before shear increases again. A ridge should continue to move the storm generally westwards for another day or two before SW flow from Lowell sweeps Karina NE into its circulation. Karina's trying to hard to become a hurricane again. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:37, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Outflow from Lowell is spewing shear over Karina, exposing its LLCC. TAFB and SAB estimates have prompted the NHC to lower the storm's intensity to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with a pressure of 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg). Despite warm SST's, shear and dry air should keep Karina in check; the latest NHC forecast keeps it a TS for the next five days, while HWRF weakens it to a TD in 72 hours. Karina should continue its westward motion for another couple of days before Lowell's circulation tugs it NE. Well, it tried and at least became a hurricane. :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:00, August 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * Still 50 mph but its pressure has dropped to 1000 mbars, at least it tried and became a hurricane! :) Also, it should stick around for a while, but like Andy said above, dry air/wind shear should keep the storm in check even though it's in bathtub warm water. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:23, August 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * There could be stronger winds in the western quadrant, as the ASCAT pass missed the region. Shear from Lowell shouldn't be strong enough to kill Karina, however. Interaction with Lowell will sweep the storm NE in a couple of days as steering currents collapse. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:34, August 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Convection and deep banding features have increased in association with Karina due to it moving over warmer SST's; however, the NHC maintains its intensity. The storm is expected to undergo a cyclonic loop in ~48 to 72 hours as the steering currents collapse and Lowell takes over. For the next few days, shear from Lowell will cause fluctuations in Karina's intensity before it gets close enough gradual weakening occurs. Degeneration is expected in ~120 hours due to decreasing SST's. P.S. Karina now has lasted as long as Amanda. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:47, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * Up to 50 knts. This storm is weird. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:53, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually it's not that weird because its just trying and fighting against these conditions. It's also ever so close to the CPac boundary but not forecast to cross it. Forecast to finally die out on Sunday after turning northeastward.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:27, August 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * Down to 45 knts, but ATCF brought it back up to 50 knts. This storm is crazy. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:08, August 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's really hanging on and it's starting to be a bit weird. 60 mph/999 mbars according to latest NHC advisory and forecast to dissipate by Sun/Monday. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:05, August 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * Somewhat like the 2011 AHS, resilience has been a bit of a recurring theme this EPAC season. Douglas lasted for a week despite only peaking at 40 kts. Genny the Great initially peaked where Douglas did, then died twice in the CPAC before roaring back to life as a Category 5 super typhoon in the WPAC. Julio fought against unfavorable conditions to regain hurricane strength at an unusually high latitude for either the EPAC or the CPAC. And now we have Karina hanging on for dear life before big bad Lowell gobbles her up, with Lowell itself being a success story since it didn't let its large size prevent it from eventually reaching hurricane status. Another thing I've noticed is that, assuming Lowell does not strengthen any further, we have 3 storms peaking at 65 kts, minimal hurricane strength (Hernan, Karina, and Lowell). All five storms that exceeded this intensity became major hurricanes (Amanda, Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, and Julio). I suppose Lowell has 12 hours or so to change that by inching up to 70 or, at best, 75 kts, but given how long the storm as taken to strengthen, I wouldn't count on it. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:23, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Hawaii
I'm not sure if this is a continuation of another AOI, but its 1000 mi southwest of Honolulu. Don't expect any development from the system, as its fairly disorganized and a digging upper-level trough will make conditions unfavorable for development. Chances of formation are currently at near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:16, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Bleh, this won't develop. I have a feeling that it might be the remnants of Iselle instead of a new AOI. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:40, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * No, this was another AOI. It's off the TWO anyway. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:11, August 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Oh, I thought it was Iselle's remnants due to their similar positions. Anyways, bye short-lived AOI! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:25, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:CMC model storm
10/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:46, August 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * Development is going to be a little slow with this AOI compared to 99E. If anything, I would expect a CPAC storm from this. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't expect much from this, but I agree with Andrew, if it does ever develop it will be in CPac. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   01:53, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Agreed. 10/30. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:06, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Uh oh. 10/40. Models brings this near Hawaii as a strong TS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:47, August 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/60. Guidance has shifted south though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:17, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * This might be Ana after crossing over to CPac. I wanted Ana to wait till 2015 so we could see 2 storms with the same name in different basins in the same year, but I guess that probably won't occur. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:44, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope for that too Steven, but if it becomes Ana in the CPac, oh well...we'll just have to deal with it. Ryan1000 10:49, August 13, 2014 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Sorry, guys, but Ana's too impatient. Satellites show the system, now dubbed Invest 90E, has become a little better defined and thunderstorm activity has gotten more organized. Since conditions favor additional development, I'm very tempted to believe a CPAC storm is imminent. Chances of formation are now at 30% for the next two days and 70% for the next five days. And while I understand the excitement with having two "Ana"s in one year, that phenomenon occured with Kiko last year, so I'm wouldn't be too excited if it happened anyway. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:44, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Oh well, I guess Ana is too impatient. Here comes Ana! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:55, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Euro brings this very close to Hawaii while moving slowly. As for the system itself, it doesn't have much convection. It's LLC is defined, so I'd expect it to develop rapidly a bit. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:58, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Organization and shower activity have changed little in the past few hours. I'm not sure what proximity to the other CPAC AOI will do. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:31, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/80. Still looks kinda of a mess. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:46, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * 60/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:19, August 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * 90E is now in the CPAC basin. Environmental conditions will likely prompt the formation of a TD within a couple of days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:20, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * CPAC aint a basin >:( 60% chance, BTW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:07, August 15, 2014 (UTC)

94C.INVEST
90E has been renumbered 94C by the CPHC. Shower and thunderstorm activity is starting to pulsate, and chances of formation are down to 50% for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  06:43, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Look as good as Karina. Back up to 60%. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:18, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here comes Ana! The CPac is just about to spit out another TC soon! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:52, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 60%. I still think it will be Ana. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:39, August 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Remains at 60% for a third day. Environmental conditions are still expected to be favorable for an Ana to form according to CPHC. Why am I talking to myself? -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:58, August 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Everyone seems to have abandoned my beloved wiki :( Anyhow, this is down to 40%. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:53, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * 94C's thunderstorms have become even more isolated and disorganized, and environmental conditions are less favorable for its development. Chances of formation are now at 20% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:58, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Oh well, this system missed its chance. Hopefully Ana comes next year so there would be two Ana's in the same year! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:19, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Thunderstorm activity has been stripped from 94C's center due to easterly shear, and what is left of the invest is interacting with Karina. Chances of formation are down to near 0% for the next 48 hours, and I would say it's dead. :( Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:22, August 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * And...94C goes off the TWO. So much for a TC! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:35, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if this is a new AOI or the same AOI as this one, but it's still located near Karina but it's been upgraded to 20%. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:10, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF system
Right next to the 20/60. Near 142W. Euro shows it. 20% risk. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:39, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:07, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since the AOI is rather disorganized, I'd expect any development to be very slow. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:01, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't expect much from this AOI. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:56, August 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * The AOI's off the TWO now. 90E and the unfavorable conditions killed it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:25, August 14, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Caribbean Wave
Surprised this is not on the 5 day TWO. GFS has it developing and interacting with uhh 99E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:39, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Both HWRF and GFS show this, HWRF calling for Hurricane Lowell. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:09, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane


 * Due to possible interaction with Karina, I'm not sure what's in store for the AOI. If anything, it's going to be a while before it becomes something decent. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:27, August 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS has Karina interacting with 90E while Euro has this interacting with Karina. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:02, August 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * This wave it seems is located over Central America. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:48, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/30. Into the EPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:35, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * This might have a tiny shot at Lowell, but I'm not sure what's gonna happen here. Might possibly interact with Karina though. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:53, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/50. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:04, August 16, 2014 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
An investment. It'll merge with Karina or hit cool SST's in 2-3 days. It's golden chance is now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:08, August 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Up to 30/60. But it'll probably be a weakling due to Karina in the way. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:37, August 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Model war going on. UKMET/CMC showing a northerly track affecting Baja and bring moisture to the USA via an upper trough. GFS has an epic interaction and then eventually becoming part of Karina. Also uncertain is how much time over warm SST's will this have. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:31, August 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:49, August 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Up to 80/80! Here comes Lowell! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:52, August 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks likely to a high end TS. Really large system though, like Ivo last year. This should affect CA. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:38, August 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * 90/90. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
Where is everybody? Anyhow, this is a TD. Forecast to turn north and then back NW. ENCWF brings this much closer to land, and has more rain over the SW US. Even if what the GFS has verifies, increased moisture is expected over Nevada, California, and Arizona. We have a ULL cut-off low, much like Octave/Ivo 13, and of course, the great Octave 83. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:53, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hi, YE. Anyway, 12E has not changed a lot recently, and Dvorak estimates support an intensity of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). With favorable water, air, and shear conditions expected for the next few days, the depression is forecast to reach 50 knots (60 mph) per the NHC, before more stable air and decreasing SST's prompt weakening. However, since 12E is rather large, the weakening will likely take longer than normal. Although the depression is currently moving W under the influence of an STR, but an eastward ridge shift should shift 12E northwards with a slight jog to the left. Although the latest NHC forecast takes the depression away from the U.S., this situation is reminding me more of Ignacio in 1997, which flooded California. I think rainfall will be more confined to the West Coast, perhaps reaching areas that haven't seen TC rainfall in years. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:07, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope this isn't such a huge flood threat. I live in Southern California and I don't want this system to flood my area and instead just bring some harmless beneficial rainfall. We're also in a huge drought and future-Lowell might relieve the drought a little bit. Anyways, it's still a depression and the NHC predicts a peak of 60 mph (50 knots) out of this system. I predict it'll peak at around 65-70 mph. Now this probably won't happen but god forbid if it begans RI and reaches at least C2 status... California could get really flooded if that happened. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:15, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * It could be a flood threat, but I doubt how much it deepens matters much. I'm not very keen on intensification; it simply is not organizing. Ill be annoyed if this does not get named. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:19, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * I doubt this will become a hurricane. Like Douglas this year the big field and because it is the formation of a monsoon gyre. Intensification will be slow. I predict a peak of 60mph. Ascat may reveal tonight if it has the winds of ts.Allanjeffs 22:31, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * I personally wouldn't mind if this didn't become Lowell. If it does then it probably won't get any stronger than Douglas, and it'd be nice if the male storms could catch up to the winning women :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:50, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Allan, you're right on the money here. Well, Dylan, you don't want us to reach the Greek Alphabet? If we stand a shot at doing so, this better be named. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:33, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Some satellite estimates indicate 12E may already be a TS ATM. However, moderate shear and its current organization will only promote slow intensification at most for the next few days, and SST's dropping below 26C should start its demise from thereafter. A strong STR will cause 12E's current NNW motion more NW and N as the depression rounds the STR's SW periphery. Next, a trough over the western U.S. should build the STR more to the depression's north, allowing it to continue a generally NW motion. At this point, the greatest threats I see to any land is a moisture plume into the SW United States, causing potential flash flooding a la Octave (1983) or Nora (1997). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:42, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF brings this to 35 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:51, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lowell
It's been named. I still predict a strong TS from this. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   02:53, August 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * Lowell's intensity is currently 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg) per the NHC, albeit very ragged with a displaced LLCC. Steve, Lowell should, at most, only gradually strengthen due to marginal SST's and moderate amounts of shear; the NHC still forecasts a peak of 50 knots (60 mph). After a few days, the storm's demise will be settled through cooling SST's. As Lowell moves into a weakness in the STR, its motion should shift more northwards, with a continuation of the NW motion forecasted once the STR rebuilds to Lowell's north. The moisture plume from this storm could still easily affect many people in the Southwestern United States, so be prepared. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:43, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm quite surprised that this season has been going so fast. For the record, 1992 didn't get their "L" storm (Lester) until August 20, which is tomorrow, so Lowell is second to 1985's Linda, which became named on July 31, as the earliest "L" storm on record in the EPac. And Marie is following closely behind from the AOI near Panama, likely to become a strong major hurricane in the coming days. Ryan1000 10:45, August 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * Convection is starting to wrap around Lowell's center, and ASCAT passes show winds of 40 to 45 knots around a large radius of maximum winds. Dvorak classifications have prompted the storm's upgrade to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h)/996 mbar (hPa; 29.42 inHg) - a little more than I expected. The current enviroment should induce Lowell's intensification for another 48 hours or so before cooler SST's and stable air induce gradual weakening; 55 knots (65 mph) is the new current NHC peak. As the trough steering the storm deepens, it will begin the forecasted NNW turn within the day and continue to move in that direction for another few days before ridging prompts a more westward motion. Preparations should continue to be taken for the moisture surge entering the Southwestern United States. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:12, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lowell is now 50 mph/996 mbars, and I'd actually say that it has an outside shot at hurricane status, but only a weak one (75-80 mph at the very most). Also, some slightly strange-looking clouds are located outside my window, could this be the start of Lowell's moisture surge coming in? -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:19, August 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Lowell does have another day or so in 27C waters, but modest shear should keep intensification in check. The NHC forecast peak has been lowered to 50 knots (60 mph). Dry air and decreasing SST's will then prompt gradual weakening from thereafter. A generally NW motion is expected from Lowell for the next couple of a days as a trough weakens the STR, followed by a rapid acceleration WNW as the STR rebuilds to Lowell's north. Steve, the NHC said the moisture surge from Lowell would reach the Southwestern United States by Wednesday or Thursday, so you might be getting the outermost portions of the plume. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:37, August 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Little change in organization has occurred in relation to Lowell, although cirrus outflow is bonafide in all directions. Light to moderate shear, along with SST's of 26-27C, should induce steady strengthening for the next couple of days before decreasing SST's rapidly kill of Lowell. The forecast philosophy remains the same per the NHC; they note interaction with Karina should have little effect on Lowell's forecast path. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:52, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lowell is a farily well-organized storm, but it's large size could prevent it from becoming a hurricane. However, unlike Douglas earlier this year, Lowell is at 65 mph right now, if it organizes just a little more it'll become a minimal cat 1 before dying down and producing some rainfall for parts of southern California. Ryan1000 21:22, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I actually think it might briefly become a C1, I don't see why it won't have at least a slight shot at happening. Also, there's some thunderstorm clouds possibly associated with Lowell's moisture surge like out east in the Inland Empire but they're not coming here (I'm in Huntington Beach).--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:31, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

Lowell's west side looks a lot drier now than it did yesterday. This could be our first non-hurricane since Wali :( And Steve, in response to your request on the ATL forum for feedback on your signature: no offense, but I'm not sure if dark colors in a small font against a black background is a good idea. It makes the signature a tad difficult to read :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:38, August 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATCF makes this a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:02, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Lowell
I stand corrected. Official from NHC at 65 kts/982 mbar. Atta boy, Lowell!!! Now make a nice dinner out of Karina :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:37, August 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * Congrats Lowell, you did it! Yes! :D And Dylan I don't have any problems reading my new signature, it looks completely fine to me.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:03, August 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * Suit yourself. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:08, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #2
GFS shows it in the long range. Could develop in the ATL before then. Right off Africa. Makes it a major as well. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:39, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Makes it a 949mbar hurricane by day 16. Last time I saw a model non-HWRF/GFDL be this aggressive in the EPAC was in 2009. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:08, August 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS for the past 4 days or so so has been calling for a major. Most runs keep it well-offfshore. Not this. It calls for a TS over southern California and a hurricane near Baja. GFS waits a bit to develop, but CMC, FIM, and UKMEt suggest this could form by Day 5. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:38, August 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/30. Over the past two days, there has been a bit of a model war. Two days ago, the Euro was keeping this offshore, while the GFS/CMC had it hitting California. Now, the reverse has happened, though the latest Euro run keeps this offshore as well. As for as intensification goes, the sky is the limit. One thing I would like to point out, however, is the models tendency to move a storm too slowly and thus have it lasting over warmer SST's longer than what actually happened. 95E and Ivo 13 were victims of this in a very big way, as they were initially forecast to be majors. Still, given that 11E and 12E are moving slowly, as well as the overall warm SST's this year than last, led me to believe that this system is for real. Also worth pointing out that the CMC and the Euro are in better agreement now than they were in both Octave, Ivo, and 95E's case in 2013, as well as in Rosa's 12 case. We do have a Kelvin Wave support this time around; however, it is uncertain whether we will have the MJO's support. Models are in good agreement on MJO passing through both basins. However, it may be mistaken it for a CCKW in the models, and/or increase moisture due to Pouch 17/18L's broad but poorly organized area of convection. Many experts such as Levi have even argued that MJO does not retrograde at all. However, I do think MJO will arrive eventually. As we approach fall, it usually intensifies a bit. The last MJO pulse generated us Iselle and Julio and that was moderate. This one will likely be almost as strong as the one that got as storms I-L last year, and that was very strong. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:53, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't know what to expect from the AOI, but it sounds like a re-Jimena (2009) or Norbert (2008) to me based on your description, YE. Nevertheless, development should be rather slow in the short-term. Chances of formation, BTW, are up to 40% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:12, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not Norbert. That had an entirely different troughing set up, one you typically see with evil landfalling hurricanes. Latest GFS has it peaking at ~950 mbar, then brushing Central California as a moderate to strong TS. Both the GFS and the Euro (as well as the CMC) have shifted eastward this run, but keep it a bit offshore still. However, the HWRF has it moving quite east, and based on extrapolation only, has it into Cabo San Lucas in a little over a week. Jimena 09 and John 06 were forecast to move near Baja by models early on, when the guidance, especially the UKMET (which develops this in a few days, faster than any other model, even the CMC) had it move west. Guess what? It verified. This could get very interesting. As long as shear is low, this should have terrific conditions to work with. I'd give this about a 10-20% of becoming a Cat 5. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:33, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Up to 0% (60%), this might be of a potential future major or even C5 hurricane. We should really monitor this closely because it might become very powerful in the future. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:17, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Models are really agressive with future Marie all of them develop and most if not all show at least cat 3. Marie might finally be the one to shine and be the cat 5 of the season.Allanjeffs 22:32, August 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Latest GFS run has this to 940mbar. Track shifted west towards Baja in the latest runs from both the Euro and GFS. This could get interesting. This is starting to remind me of my favorite EPAC TC of all time, Rick 09. I'd give it a 30% of becoming a Cat 5 IMO. There's nothing stopping this. It has super warm waters. It has a CCKW coming, low shear per GFS, and extreme model support. Even the conservative models like the Euro and the UKMET are bullish with this. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:58, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * YE, you are really scaring me with that description of the AOI. :O I am now expecting at bare minimum a C3 from this. It's currently over Central America, and in the long run, it will have near perfect conditions to develop. The AOI is on the TWO now, and chances of formation are now near 0% for the next 48 hours and 70% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, the NOGAPS and FIM don't do much with it. Also I need to remind you that models for a while last year showed a Cat 3 hurricane off the west coast of MX for a system that didn't even develop. Ditto in October 2012, though that got messed up due to the huge east coast trough and when it starting showing Sandy's bend to the NW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:54, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is getting scary. It will almost certainly be our next major if trends continue, in fact we could even see a C5 out of this. Looks like Marie will probably be a very powerful system. It's even more scary in that, according to YE above, it's track is leaning towards Baja in the model runs from GFS and Euro. :O -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   02:58, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Actually, looking at the pattern, there is enough ridging it appears to force it W. Still looks like the most likely case. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:05, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think we've been a little too bullish with this. This run is much weaker this time around. GFS calls for a major, and still pretty intense, just not the 940 mbar shown earlier. or this run, the track is a bit more NE. However, a ridge arrives just in time to send it W, and after around day 7, the track shifts quite a bit more to the W. I'm pretty sure, for now, this won't hit land. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:49, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't think I've ever seen NHC forecast something like this. While it's not expected to develop over the next two days, they've placed a 70% chance for the next 5, and it's moving over very favorable conditions. It'd be really cool to see a cat 5 out of this, the first in the EPac, let alone the Western Hemisphere, in 4 years. It should remain offshore, however its remnants could potentially impact parts of California in two weeks. That's really far out and lots of things could change, but either way, this is going to be very interesting. Ryan1000 10:58, August 19, 2014 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invest'd. 30/80. Models trending SW, but 100% agreement on a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:02, August 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * It'd be really cool to see a C5 out of this since it probably won't affect land in the future, and future-Marie might just be something very powerful. It's got so much time in very favorable conditions and I wouldn't be surprised to see a C5 from this. This system is one to watch. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   00:16, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would not either. Probs more deserving of attention of 96L from a tracker prospective (much greater shot at becoming something big). Models are trending SW, so land threat is not serious at this time. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:28, August 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * 92E looks a little disorganized ATM, so it may need a couple of days to get ready to become a very strong cyclone. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:40, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * 40/80. Latest GFS shows a 934 mbar hurricane and a near-miss of Central California. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:55, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/80. Looks worse, but models still bomb this out. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:56, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * It actually looks a little better. I expect a strong cat 3 out of this at the very least, but a mid-level cat 4 or even cat 5 is not out of the question with the way the models have been behaving on this one. I'm fairly confident it will remain well south of Mexico, but like Lowell, it's remnants could bring some rainfall to California in the long run (about a week or so). Ryan1000 21:25, August 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/80, this will no doubt be a major. In fact it might even reach C5 strength. If it brings rain to California we really need it because of our extreme drought; the moisture surge from Lowell might also help a bit. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:33, August 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * Models a little more NW and somewhat weaker, but this storm is getting better. Developing slightly faster than expected. I'm expecting Friday to be an RI day based on the passage of a CCKW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:11, August 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's now 70/90, I expect it to be a depression later today.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:06, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Pouch 17L
GFS is bullish with this. Currently offshore Africa. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:50, August 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * The AOI, I believe, is on the Atlantic five-day TWO (near 0%/20%). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  06:45, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nope, I skipped a wave. GFS has that wave entering the EPAC, but doesn't have model support quite yet. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:34, August 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS shows this interacting with another wave but not being absorbed by as a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:33, August 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Models less aggressive now. Could develop in the ATL, so it is no guarntee to make it to the EPAC in one piece. Given how large it is, moisture should arrive in the EPAC of some kind in the long range. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:56, August 18, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:South of Hawaii
I'm not sure if this is part of a previously mentioned tropical wave but the CPHC is giving a weak low pressure area south of Hawaii a 10% chance of TC formation in the next 48 hours. I don't expect much out of this AOI. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:42, August 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Down to 0%. There's still a very slight chance environmental conditions might support some future development though. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:59, August 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't count on it. Wind shear is forecast to limit any development of the AOI for the next few days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:09, August 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Thunderstorms are re-developing in relation to the AOI, but easterly shear will likely halt additional development. Chances of formation are back up to 10% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:50, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Back down to near 0%. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:07, August 21, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Pouch 18L
GFS quite aggressive with this in 2 weeks for the last 5 or so runs. Talking about yet another hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:48, August 17, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * All - 0%

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * 4) Douglas 0% Was okay.
 * 5) Elida 0% Fail
 * 6) Fausto 0% an epic epic epic fail.
 * 7) Wali 0% See Elida
 * 8) Geneive 1% just an epic long track, but it aint going anywhere
 * 9) Hernan 0% fish system
 * 10) Iselle 35% Very tricky. Hawaii is super lenient, but they'll never had a middle of the ground storm like this. They'll request probs though.
 * 11) Julio 1% For passing north of Hawaii
 * 12) Karina 0% fish system
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 00:24, August 20, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.
 * Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired.
 * Elida: 0% - Epic fail!
 * Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said
 * Wali: -∞% - See Fausto
 * Genevieve - 0.1% - Very freakin awesome, especially because it was a weak TS for a couple weeks before exploding into a Category 5!!! Wow! It didn't affect land though but it gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness.
 * Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen.
 * Iselle: 60% - Hawaii's third costliest storm and strongest Big Island landfall ever. It was also a fun-to-track Category 4. Due to these Hawaiian impacts and their retirement standards, it has a good shot at going.
 * Julio: 0% - Fun to track and pulled a surprising stunt on us near the end by re-strengthening to a hurricane in high latitudes, but since it didn't affect land Julio will come back in 2020.
 * Karina: 0% - Just a typical minimal hurricane without affecting land. Might pull a Douglas/Julio out of the hat and last longer than expected.
 * Lowell: ? - Still active


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's mine (because I want to get a head start (Sorry, Dylan)): (i'll remove the underline when we're further in the season)
 * Amanda: 0%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land.
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- currently active
 * leeboy100 (talk) 17:21, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

My thoughts:

East Pacific:


 * Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic.
 * Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said.
 * Douglas - 0% - ^^
 * Elida - 0% - Nothing of note.
 * Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more?
 * Genevieve - 0% - My god, what a storm! Who could've guessed that Genevieve would go from being a weakling TS that died twice in the CPac to becoming a category 5 super typhoon and the most powerful storm worldwide in 2013. It showed all of us what happens when you keep trying and don't give up. :) All while it was far out to sea, with no damage or casualties reported.
 * Hernan - 0% - Well hey, at least we finally got another hurricane...
 * Iselle - 50% - Eh, sue me. I really don't know what to think of this storm's chances for retirement. While Iselle killed a person and caused 53 million in damage (making it Hawaii's 3rd costliest storm after Iwa and Iniki), those numbers don't appear to be too high on paper and the post-storm media hype with this one didn't last as long as it did with past U.S. landfalling storms. I'd say it's a toss-up -- It could very well be retired for its unique nature and "unprecedented" impacts on the Big Island, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if it's not retired since the damage and death toll weren't too extreme.
 * Julio - 0% - Total fishspinner, but I'm surprised it went up to a hurricane again in the far north Central Pacific.
 * Karina - 0% - Another hurricane, but well away from any land.
 * Lowell - ?? - Moisture could affect the SW US in a week or so, so it isn't a guaranteed fish.

Central Pacific:

Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Alright, here are mine as of June 30:
 * Amanda — <1% Nope.
 * Boris — ≤1% Nope.
 * Cristina — <1% Nope.
 * Douglas — <1% Nope.
 * Elida — ≤1% Probably nope.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel.
 * 2) Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub.
 * 3) Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe.
 * 4) Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay.
 * 5) Elida - 0% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she miserably failed. Not even Mexico witnessed anything from her!!!
 * 6) Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway.
 * 7) Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto.
 * 8) Genevieve - 0% - I am very impressed by the show Genevieve gave us. I remember when we were first calling the storm a pathetic fail (not me, at least!) and just saying it sucked when she poofed away. Then Genny tried hard to prove us wrong and she only got so far again. So she passed away again, but her spirit still stayed with her, and she refused to give up hope. Finally, she did what every EPAC system dreams of doing - live in all three basins and become a modest Category 5 hurricane. It was worth the struggle. Genny accomplished her dream, and even better, harmed no one. While we know she isn't going, she was a very impressive system for her age and day.
 * 9) Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years.
 * 10) Iselle - 60% - Well, Miss Iselle is going to be a tricky one. She started off real excited and attained C4 intensity in a region that normally could only handle a C2. Then she did the annular trick and went straight to Hawaii's doorstep as a moderate TS. Her landfall on the Big Island is the strongest one to ever occur. And that obviously didn't go without impact. Damaging surf and strong winds around Hilo downed a number of trees and unroofed some houses. Over 20,000 are without power due to all the power lines Iselle downed. Of strong note is what happened in Puna; the power failure in a geothermal plant has released toxic hydrogen sulfide gases into the air, which could suffocate dozens. Currently, one fatality has been reported from the hurricane, and damage reports are at $53 million (2014 USD). Call me overcasting, but Hawaii requested Flossie '07 and Daniel '06 for retirement, both of which caused effectively nothing. Iselle, however, has left a huge mark for Hawaii, and it's likely going based on their retirement standards.
 * 11) Julio - 0% - Julio was a very impressive major hurricane and shocked me with his little re-intensification stunt. However, no land impacts, so no retirement for him.
 * 12) Karina - TBA - Still Active
 * 13) Lowell - TBA - Still Active

We have enough storms for me:
 * Eastern Pacific
 * Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise.
 * Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is.
 * Douglas: 0% -
 * Elida: 0% -
 * Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm*
 * Genevieve: 0% - Epic win for the intensity it reached after struggling for nearly two weeks, but it steered clear of land areas.
 * Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally.
 * Iselle: 51% - With Daniel '06 and Flossie '07, Hawaii proved itself willing to request the retirement of anything that dares to breathe on them. Since Iselle actually hit them - and made its mark, too - then if Hawaii submits Iselle for consideration, the WMO may be more likely to oblige this time around.
 * Julio: 0% - Kudos for becoming a major hurricane and surviving relatively far north for a Pacific hurricane, but like I said about Cristina, a fish is a fish is a fish.
 * Karina: Still active but impacts on land are looking unlikely as of now.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Central Pacific
 * Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often.

Here's mine: - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it.
 * Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough.
 * Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed.
 * Elida: 0% - She didn't even try.
 * ??? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * My predictions for this season.


 * Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement.
 * Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying.
 * Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show.
 * Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed.
 * Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm.
 * Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam.
 * Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening.
 * Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying.

Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her.
 * Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one.
 * Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land.
 * Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast.
 * Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail.
 * Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all
 * Genevieve: Active
 * Hernan: 0% Just because he was a hurricane doesn't mean he is a candidate for retirement. He did nothing at all.
 * Iselle: Active
 * Julio: Active
 * Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee.
 * Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's my prediction

Replacement Names
Although it's not a guarantee, there is a possibility Iselle could be retired due to its impacts on Hawaii. That being said, what are your thoughts on possible replacement names for Iselle? My suggestions are: Out of these suggestions (feel free to post more), I would pick Inga. Ryan1000 01:24, August 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ivy
 * Isha
 * Isla
 * Indira
 * Ines
 * Ivana
 * Ilene
 * Ivette
 * Ilsa
 * Isabela
 * Inga
 * Ilse
 * Ivonne
 * Ivanna


 * I'm not completely sure Iselle is doomed to go, but here are my top ten suggestions -


 * Iggy
 * Innocente
 * Iphigenia
 * Isabel
 * Ione
 * Isuelt
 * Irmelin
 * Inmaculada
 * Ilse
 * Imelia

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC) Like Iggy Azealea? Fancy name. Anyway, I thought of Imani. “i liek turtlez 16:24, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think Isabel and anything too similar is out of the question since the name was retired from the Atlantic lists only a decade ago. My top pick would be Ione - also retired in the Atlantic, but that was nearly 6 decades ago, and the name was subsequently used in the Pacific several times before male names were introduced. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:56, August 19, 2014 (UTC)