Forum:2013 North Indian Ocean cyclone season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:19, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

91B.INVEST
Organized convective sytem positioned west of southern India, betwen the coast of the subcontinent and the Maldavies. Latest AMSUB pass reveals rain rates of about 1.5" per hour in more convective areas.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:40, May 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Latest check on NRL website indicates that 91B.INVEST is no longer being monitored.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:07, May 7, 2013 (UTC)

92B.INVEST
Originated in the eastern Bay of Bengal on May 4, and has moved slowly westward, though is still in the bay. Currently an organized swirl of clouds with not much convective activity.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:40, May 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Convection fired up overnight, storm still in the central Bay of Bengal. Storm is generally stationary.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:07, May 7, 2013 (UTC)

Depression BOB 01
Wuh oh...I have a bad feeling about this...Ryan1000 13:37, May 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I have a bad feeling about this particular storm as well. It grew exponentially larger over the last day and now its a large depression with a lot of moisture. This is expected to reach 90 kt (105 mph) by the time it makes Myanmar. And unfortunately, any storm that makes landfall in Myanmar is going to have a considerable impact.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:51, May 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree. While BOB 01 is currently moving northwestward, it could turn towards Burma soon. Hopefully, this depression will not become Nargis 2.0. On the flip side, assuming the depression becomes a cyclonic storm, it will mark the first time since 2010 a cylonic storm formed in May in the NIO basin. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:54, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Deep Depression BOB 01
And also, the depression has intensified. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:56, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Better get named soon... Isaac829 E-Mail  23:51, May 10, 2013 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Mahasen
Track is shifting a bit towards the west, now southern Bangladesh is in its sights. Forecast to peak as a cat 1 or 2 before making landfall by Monday. While Bangladesh is still vulnerable, they've been preparing quite a bit in rescent years and the death toll of tropical cyclones there has greatly decreased there since the tragic cyclones of 1970 and 1991 (and hopefully even more since Sidr in 2007). Hopefully this won't be so bad for the folks there. Ryan1000 11:18, May 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dvorak estimates for Mahasen are currently T2.5. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:25, May 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * JTWC forecast cuts landfall down to 55 kt, but a peak of 85 kt or higher in the Bay of Bengal is forecast. ADT rose to 3.1 (61 kt), which is much higher than its current intensity.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:23, May 11, 2013 (UTC)

As this storm moves slowly, paralleling the east Indian coastline, Mahasen is causing widespread destruction. Waves and rain are inundating coastal areas... and even when a few days out from landfall, it has already costed the lives of 15 people, and reports are flowing in that the death toll may be already in excess of 200 people. While a large death toll was not entirely surprising due to the relatively poor living conditions there, it has been a tragic and unfortunate day along the coasts of the Bay of Bengal.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:31, May 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, on the bright side, Mahasen didn't intensify as much as initially forecast, so this could've been much worse. Had it become a cat 1-2 like the models were earlier predicting, we could've had a storm kill thousands of people here. Ryan1000 11:13, May 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Near landfall, still can kill thousands of people. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:39, May 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Made landfall, almost gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  01:12, May 17, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone Mahasen
Dead. 15 deaths confirmed thus far, hopefully it won't go much higher. 11:16, May 17, 2013 (UTC)Ryan1000

UPDATE:Make that 93. This is pretty unfortunate...Ryan1000 11:23, May 17, 2013 (UTC)

96 deaths. :( Luckily, the storm did not intensify to a Category 2 or 3/severe cyclonic storm like it was expected. Also, just to mention, Sri Lanka officialists are requesting international agencies to not identify this destructive storm as Cyclonic Storm Mahasen because that name refers to King Mahasena of Anuradhapura, a king which brought prosperity to the country. Source: . Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:27, May 17, 2013 (UTC)

I wonder why did they submit it in the first place... Isaac829 E-Mail  01:16, May 18, 2013 (UTC)

93A.INVEST
This year's first identified and monitored system in the Arabian Sea, a bit east of Socotra Island. Currently a disorganized batch of thunderstorms.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:22, May 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * The invest remains an unorganized area of thundershowers... 173.172.102.166 01:28, May 22, 2013 (UTC)

94B.INVEST
With Hurricane Wiki's appreciation for the basins under the purview of the National Hurricane Center, we must have completely forgotten about this invest in the Bay of Bengal. This system formed yesterday and is bringing a lot of moisture to the same areas effected by Mahasen.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:51, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

Depression BOB 02

 * This system got pretty organized in the Bay of Bengal before making landfall a few hours ago near Kolkatta, India. Heavy rains expected.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:22, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

95A.INVEST
Nice little batch and swirl of convection off the Arabian Peninsula which formed yesterday a few hours after 94B.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:51, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

Land Depression 01
Surprise, surprise! A monsoonal low-pressure system has organized itself and become a depression with 25 knot winds (3-minute sustained). It is not expected to become a cyclonic storm, just weaken, and the JTWC does not have this depression up yet. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:45, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Four fatalities have been reported from Depression BOB 04. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Been a while since the NIO kicked up something, but this won't be a huge problem, nothing like the floods that happened in India earlier this year anyways. Ryan1000 15:29, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Land Depression 01
The depression has degenerated into a well-marked low pressure area. It did cause some flooding in India, but it was not that extreme. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:41, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Eastern BOB
This invest is noted by JTWC... medium chance currently. Many models showing it developing while it slowly crawls away from the Thai coast and towards the Indian coast. Currently, it is setting sights on landfall near Kolkatta. 20-25kt/1004 mb at last JTWC update I think that this has a pretty good chance to develop, SSTs are good as well as low to moderate wind shear. Fred22 (talk) 23:35, October 7, 2013 (UTC) EDIT: Not sure if this would still be considered 90W as it has been moved into a new basin?
 * A lot of model support for this one to become something big... Yqt1001 (talk) 12:31, October 8, 2013 (UTC)

Depression BOB 04
Uh oh, looks like the NIO's going back to their old deadly habits again...the current forecasts from the global models (GFS and Euro) take this to becoming a horribly strong major hurricane crashing into India in 4 or 5 days...I think this is going to be a historic storm possibly killing hundreds or thousands of people. India better have evacuation plans for this one...now. Here comes Cyclone Phailin.Ryan1000 20:26, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, let's hope that when it forms, Cyclone Phailin starts, um, failin'. (Have mercy on me, I couldn't resist...) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:40, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * XD Dylan, I see what you did there. But despite it's name, it'd be hard for me to see this one phailing. It's a pretty grim scenario for India if the current global model forecasts pan out to be true... Ryan1000 20:51, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Many models have it peaked at cat 3 or 4 so India better watched out.I believe though they are more prepare though than before,and to be honest I prefer India than Bangladesh or Myanmar.Allanjeffs 21:00, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I have an idea! Let's take the impending Indian monster and push it somewhere else! Like somewhere in the Atlantic or EPAC way out to sea! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:05, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * India should be well prepared for this storm. Speaking of which, a TCFA has been issued by the JTWC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:17, October 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I wish we could Dylan...I just wish we could. And well Allan, India is getting pretty prepared for storms but that doesn't mean that they can't be deadly, knowing how populated they are, it's pretty tough to get 100% of the people out of harm's way. Bangladesh and Myanmar are more vulnerable in some places, but they've been getting more prepared recently too. Everyone in the NIO needs all the help they can get to be safe from powerful cyclones. Ryan1000 22:03, October 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah Dylan, I wish we could do that (but it's impossible). This storm could become pretty deadly if it hits India or Bangladesh as a very strong cyclone. Let's all hope Phailin starts failin' :D Steven09876 T 00:00, October 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * For the record, this depression begun out in the WPAC, and I commented on it here. Should we move the discussion there or keep it here (With Pewa, Unala, and TD 3C, we kept the discussion on the CPAC forum, maybe we should move this there?). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:18, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think it should be kept here. It didn't technically become a tropical cyclone until it reached the NIO, whereas Pewa, Unala, and Three-C all became TCs east of the dateline. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:22, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * EDIT: Wait, I didn't do my homework, I just saw now that there was indeed a depression in the WPAC. Still, keep it here anyway, since its NIO impacts are expected to be far greater than what it achieved in the WPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:35, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dylan, it was a depression in the WPac, but it was never assigned a number by the JTWC, it was only "JMA Tropical Depression" by the JMA in the WPac. If it was numbered 24W, then it would've stayed on the WPac page. Ryan1000 04:05, October 9, 2013 (UTC)

Deep Depression BOB 04
Yikes, this depression is really taking off. It is at 30 knots (35 mph) (3-minute sustained winds) /1002 mbar (29.59 inHg) per the IMD and 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds). Per the JTWC, our first NIO Category 1 tropical cyclone since Thane is in the making... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:39, October 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Latest IMD forecast brings it up to 90 mph when making landfall in India, though the global models suggest otherwise. This could get really ugly in the coming days. Ryan1000 12:41, October 9, 2013 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Phailin
Named and it appears to be rapidly intensifying at the moment. Probably nearing 65kts 1-min. Should become a Severe Cyclonic Storm soon. Yqt1001 (talk) 20:07, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * That's not good, and neither is this... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:39, October 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, Phailin is not Failin, and that's defying 2013's logic! Impossible! Well, hopefully India gets everyone out of harm's way. Ryan1000 00:16, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * o_o --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:46, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * When we want a storm to fail it doesn`t fail when we want a storm to strength it does not strength I hate 2013 logic.Poor India.I believe this storm name will be retire at the rate is going.Hope India prepares.Allanjeffs 01:57, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Names aren't retired in the NIO basin, Allan. Each time a list is exhausted, a new one is drawn up. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:07, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Edit Conflict!!! Anyway, Phailin is definitely not something to laugh about if your in India. Simlover123    02:17, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow sorry Simlover, usually I'm on the receiving end of that lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:41, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * LOL. The silly stuff that can happen sometimes. Including the boring 2013 tropical cyclone year. Simlover123    03:13, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Saw this posted in comment #652 here: 2013OCT10 043000 5.0 968.2 90.0 5.0 5.0 4.3 MW ON. This continues to get very ugly, very fast... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 05:29, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Should be a cat 3 not a 55knots ts the Indian organization is really conservative and its a shame with so many lives in risk.At the rate is going this will become a cat 5 or 4 before landfall is going to move into a region with even warmer waters.Allanjeffs 05:56, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Take a look at this it looks alot more intense than only cat. 1. Fred22 (talk) 11:43, October 10, 2013 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phailin
Both IMD and JTWC have this at 65kts. To me though, Phailin looks to be a very strong category 4. Nonetheless, the conditions in front of this are amazing, the only hope we have is an EWRC to keep this from category 5 at landfall I think. Yqt1001 (talk) 13:42, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Latest forecast from the JTWC brings this monster to 155 mph but weakening to 125 mph when it makes landfall in India, but given the shape of this thing and it's tiny, tightly-wound circulation, it could easily become a category 5 super cyclonic storm before landfall in India. They better hope this storm undergoes an ERC before landfall or this storm could get to unimaginable strengths and cause god knows how much damage. Ryan1000 17:19, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Per comment #295 here: 2013OCT10 200000 7.4 910.7 152.0 7.4 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF. This might just be the strongest NIO cyclone in recorded history... in any event, the JTWC has upgraded Phailin to a 125-knot Category 4 on the SSHWS. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:52, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * 910 mbar and 175 mph winds? That's a category 5 cyclone. This storm looks so similar to Gonu of 2007 on sattelite imagery, the two look almost identical to each other, except this one has winds at least 15 mph higher, and a pressure at least 10 mbar lower. Worse, it's continuing to explode rapidly and if it doesn't undergo an ERC it might even hit 185-190 mph when it roars ashore in India. Ryan1000 22:11, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * One word to describe this storm.Stunning looks so good the most beautiful storm of the year.Allanjeffs 22:34, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow, this has really strengthened to something very intense. It looks like a very beautiful storm on satellite imagery, and it is currently a big monster storm threatening India. Stay tuned everyone. Phailin could become very devastating once it strikes the country, and it has an outside shot for Super Cyclonic Storm strength, a strength very few storms achieve. It is really breaking 2013's logic. Steven09876 T 22:56, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * This has to have become a Super Cyclonic Storm. Anyone wanna explain this?  This is bad, real bad. Fred22 (talk) 23:07, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * 898 mbar?! Dafuq? If that pressure estimate is accurate, then Phailin is the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide since Megi 3 years ago... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:16, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * It would also make it the strongest in the basin. But it's definetly not 966 mb. Fred22 (talk) 23:27, October 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Cat 5 per JTWC now. No way this is just VSCS. 185 mph 1 min. This could very well get into the top 3 most intense in the basin. Fred22 (talk) 23:57, October 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Source? JTWC still has it at 125kts. It's likely to be 140kts at the next update though. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:05, October 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * This is insane. As far as I know, Phailin is at 125 knots (145 mph) per the JTWC and at 90 knots (105 mph) per the IMD. The last cyclone before Phailin to get this high was Giri. We could see an unwritten cyclone soon... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, October 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's up to 135kts and 922mb per JTWC: 02B   PHAILIN 131011 0000  15.8N   88.8E IO  135   922 - IMD refuses to go above 90kts 3-min and 963mb for some reason. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:38, October 11, 2013 (UTC)