Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page   Wall   Edits  01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Over Africa
This isn't up on the TWO yet, but both the GFS and Euro are consistent at developing something near northern Cape Verde about a week from now, and following in Gaston's footsteps. Could be something to keep our eyes on in the long run. Ryan1000 16:26, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * This has a good shot at being Hermine or Ian depending on whether 99L/91L develop. Maybe it will be a hurricane. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am starting to think this will be Hermine - as 99L is the most annoying invest I have ever tracked, and at this point, I am starting to doubt development from that. This could have a shot at development over the next week or so. In the very long run, I hope it does not end up threatening anyone. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:31, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO at 0/30. Unlike Gaston, this wave is expected to take a more westward path, and unlike 99L, it has more model support. Could be interesting down the road... ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 17:48, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * I've checked the latest run of the GFS and Euro and both models take this directly towards the eastern seabord of the U.S. in a week and a half to 2 weeks as a fairly powerful storm. GFS takes this into Savannah as a major hurricane, and the Euro makes it a major hurricane just north of the Bahamas, and likely eventually hitting the east coast. This may be a bad storm down the road...assuming 99L can become Hermine in the GoM, this'll be Ian. Ryan1000 12:57, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 0/60. This is a strong tropical wave already, and looks to become a dangerous storm. 99L might just be the distraction while this system actually becomes "the big one". However, it's still many days out, so that isn't certain. The Atlantic sure is ramping up this year! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:59, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/50, but it's still likely to become something big over the open Atlantic down the road. Assuming TD's 8 and 9 both become Hermine and Ian, this would be Julia instead. Ryan1000 21:26, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is looking quite threatening down the road - we should keep our eyes out. I am really hoping this is no re-Hugo or Isabel like models suggest. Hopefully, it is just a fishspinning hurricane, that maybe even repeats its 2010 predecessor! ;) ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:19, August 28, 2016 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
And now it's been invested. Still at 0/50 though, but this is definitely something to watch this and next week. Ryan1000 04:58, August 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * For some odd reason, it's down to 0/40. It could be Julia assuming the two TD's that are taking too long to become named, eventually receive the names "Hermine" and "Ian". This is still something to look out over the long run. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:27, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/30 right now. The wave has dry air in its path to deal with. But it could develop once it reaches the Lesser Antilles by Monday. I hope it doesn't pull a 99L/Hermine and take weeks to develop... ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:59, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually it might be better for it to intensify sooner, so it's more likely to go north and then east and not hit land. The GFS and Euro are thoroughly underwhelmed by this system, they don't make it anything at all even after it passes the Lessers. Ryan1000 03:12, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20, but still could become something down the road. I've grouped this with September in the event it forms down the road; if it doesn't we can move it to the August archive. Ryan1000 12:37, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * At 10/20, and not looking likely to develop into much until beyond the 5-day window. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:46, September 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * It is now up to 20/30...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 13:29, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

Still at 20/30, but NHC says conditions in the Carribean Sea aren't forecast to be conducive. Ian may have to wait... ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:31, September 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unless 92L does what Hermine did and become tropical after leaving the Caribbean. Although in order for that to happen, 92L would have to enter the Gulf of Mexico, not up the US east coast nor away from the US & Mexico altogether. But invests are tricky to forecast sometimes, so we'll just have to see what 92L does...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:51, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/20. It doesn't look like 92L is going to develop unless it somehow makes it to the Gulf of Mexico. ~ Bob Page  Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 17:06, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now at 0/20. However, the NHC's wording now notes that conditions could become more favorable when it gets near the Yucatan Peninsula. 92L's been looking pretty organized for a while, actually. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:35, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I see 92L potentially becoming Ian by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula or even the GOM. It's going to take a while to develop, similar to 99L/Hermine. Hopefully it isn't anything destructive in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:47, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * What the?! It already dropped off the TWO... I guess conditions became TOO unfavorable. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:49, September 7, 2016 (UTC)

AOI.Straits of Florida
A new Area of Invest has popped up in the Straits of Florida. At 10/10 like 93L is, and it isn't expected to develop. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow. This is up to 40/40 now!  ~ Bob   <font face="Arial">Page <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 18:17, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Welp didn't expect this jump in percentage, but even if it somehow does manage to become a depression, upper-level winds aren't very conducive for development. Ryan1000 20:29, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30 and I would be surprised to see it develop. It if did develop, it might be a weaker version of Hermine. ~  <font face="Impact"> Steve    Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:26, September 10, 2016 (UTC)

92L.INVEST (2nd time)
I have moved this section to the discussion of invest 92L because this was in fact considered to be the same system as 92L and so was called invest 92L. This looked like a tropical depression earlier, but looks like it wasn't able to hang on long enough to be classified. It still has a small chance, but I doubt it. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 03:35, September 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * 10/10 and just forecast to weaken. Sorry, no TD here. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:31, September 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * poof* and it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve    Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:24, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave
Another tropical wave has been added to the TWO. 0/20, though not seeing much model support in the near term. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 17:06, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/30. Considering it's lack of model support I'd be surprised to see stronger than a TS from this though. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:36, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * EURO now develops this into a minimal TS in about 5 days. This is much more likely to be a Fiona part 2 rather than a long-track Cape Verde hurricane, but nonetheless, another Atlantic storm would be nice. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 18:45, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I would hate to see a Fiona 2.0 or even an epic fail. Hopefully this wave develops into a hurricane despite the lack of model support. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:50, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * 10/60. This looks likely to become Ian this weekend. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 14:55, September 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * 20/70, this is looking prime to become Ian, but it'll be following in Gaston's footsteps and out to sea the faster it develops. Ryan1000 19:25, September 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm glad it does appear to be a fishspinner. I just don't want anything devastating coming from future Ian. Hopefully we see a hurricane from the wave - it's got the potential I think. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:51, September 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/60, but still expected to develop sometime next week. If it stays weak as a wave like Hermine did, it may eventually make it to the northern Antilles or the gulf/eastern U.S. down the road. Ryan1000 00:16, September 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * I still see this potentially becoming Ian in the long run, but it might still take a while to develop. Hopefully it doesn't pull a Hermine and form after a really long wait.  If that happens it might be a threat to the Gulf region. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:25, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80. Here comes Ian! Nearly all models develop this storm now, but the intensity varies from hurricane strength on the GFS and CMC to a minimal tropical storm on the EURO. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 21:40, September 9, 2016 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
And now it's been invested. Up to 30/70. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * 70/90, this is probably becoming Ian in the next day or two. Ryan1000 23:42, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Ian is about to come. Thank god models are forecasting a hurricane and it doesn't appear to be any future land threat (so far...). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:24, September 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully, he doesn't continue the "'I' curse".  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 18:39, September 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * 80/90 and might be a TD tomorrow. This shouldn't continue the "I" curse - it will likely only go out to sea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:34, September 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/80 and now just has a small window for development. Upper-level winds will become less conducive for 94L in a couple days, so it might unfortunately only be a fail name-stealer. :( Hopefully if it does develop, it remains a TD. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:28, September 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 80/80. I hope this forms soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:43, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Sorry Steve but if the center becomes better defined we have Ian as it already have ts winds, something the NHC note.Allanjeffs 04:24, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Not a TD or TS right now, since 09:00 UTC has passed and NHC didn't issue an advisory. Apparently there are 2 centers, the dominant one at the north near the deep convection and the other at the south. But if Colin was considered tropical at that state, I don't see how this isn't. However, at this rate, this will be sheared to bits before it becomes anything. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:14, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ian
It's here, 35 kts/1007 mbar, but it's only forecast to peak at 50 kts before becoming extratropical in a few days. :/ Fingers crossed it defies the forecast and becomes a hurricane, the NHC forecast track is exactly the kind of trajectory (middle of nowhere and out to sea) we'd want a hurricane to take... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:21, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's facing 20 knots of (rising) shear, it's moving over cooler waters, and the circulation is exposed on the SW side of the thunderstorm activity. Hate to break it to you Dylan, but Ian is probably going to be a fail. If that happens, it would be the second year in a row in which the "I" name wasn't a hurricane. That hasn't been pulled off since 1988-89. Ryan1000 16:52, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah I'm not really holding my breath tbh. Post-2010 Atlantic has generally been rather impotent (bar occasional storms like Joaquin, Ophelia, Danny, Sandy and Gaston, as well as the inactive-but-high-quality 2014 season as a whole). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:45, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * And Irene. Also, it should be noted that the past two Atlantic hurricane seasons had their strongest storm in October, and the NW Caribbean is fairly warm compared to the rest of the Atlantic this year, so if a wave manages to make it there next month we could still have a bad storm in store for us. Ryan1000 18:10, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, overall the Atlantic hasn't been too notable since 2012, with the exception of a few storms. Ian likely won't do anything comparing to his two predecessors. So that's good, considering what Earl and Hermine have done.  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 21:03, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Ian isn't likely to become anything significant, I'm thinking this will probably peak 50-60 mph at most because of the shear. However, 95L could be a candidate for Julia. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:20, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * I expect Ian to live two more days, tops, before he gets ripped apart by the 50-60 knot shear to his north. Ryan1000 03:01, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Might strength to a 60 to 65mph storm because of an anticylcone moving closer to its center. Not expecting a hurricane and wind shear might kill it. Its up to 45mph winds, a fail but not a complete fail nonetheless still its nothing like its predecesors Ivan and Igor. Allanjeffs 04:23, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * The "I" curse has almost certainly been broken. Ian is unlikely to become a hurricane as the shear has completely exposed the circulation center, with the nearest convection more than 120 n mi away to the NE (per NHC discussion). ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:30, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * The shear is starting to destroy Ian and will demolish the TS in the future. I guess the newly used name can't be used for a hurricane this year. :( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:14, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * 50 kts, 998 mbar, but expected to become post-tropical. See you in 2022, Ian. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:51, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
Down and out. I admit Ian lasted longer than I expected it to, but it still didn't harm land. Ryan1000 17:06, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Near Leeward Islands
At 10/20 and conditions aren't expected to be favorable for much development. I'll be so surprised if it develops. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:25, September 9, 2016 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Surprisingly enough, this became invested before the system behind it. Still not expected to develop though. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yep, nothing coming here. Julia will have to come later assuming 94L is a future TC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:36, September 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still on the TWO at 10/10, but is heading for Florida and will probably dissipate there. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:16, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think everyone spoke too soon. According to the NHC, they are considering issuing advisories on a tropical cyclone later today, and it is pretty close to becoming one. Looks like it's making a last minute run to become Tropical Storm Julia. Owen 22:51, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/70. We could see TD 11 or TS Julia at 11PM EDT. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:52, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * We have Julia. I think. AL, 93, 2016091400,, BEST, 0, 299N, 815W, 35, 1010, TS 66.87.148.103 00:44, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yes it will be Julia, ATCF should be revisit as this was clearly a td since 2am and a ts since 2pm. It might be weak but some models are doing this make a loop and getting it out of Georgia to the Atlantic  Ocean.  Might strength a little bit if it happens. Allanjeffs 00:52, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julia
Advisories coming in this hour.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:14, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * 10-4-1. Owen 02:16, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * WHAT THE ACTUAL HECK?! I guess "Julia" has to be used for a weakling this year, except that it will bring a bunch of impacts to the southeast. The name would have been better suited for a strong and decent hurricane instead, IMO. I never expected this to form!!! :O ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:11, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wha....this thing actually formed while it was over Florida? I've never seen a TS do that before. Not unheard of but still extremely rare. Meh, either way, Julia won't be too bad, it'll bring some rain showers but likely nothing too serious. Ryan1000 03:37, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Julia
Really, are you serious???????????? It HAD to weaken as soon as it hit the ocean. It is now forecast to dissipate soon. Really, Julia, really?????????... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:32, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julia (2nd time)
Became a tropical storm again. BeamOfSunlight (talk) 21:49, September 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Meh, it's...stalling offshore now. Rip currents are still a threat though. Ryan1000 22:41, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Julia (2nd time)
Back down to a TD again. Could become post-tropical soon, as Julia has lost pretty much all her deep convection lately. Ryan1000 03:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Didn't really expect Julia to persist this long, but it's now currently weakening. I believe impacts it caused weren't too bad. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:41, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Winds are down to 25 kt; 1010 mbar. This storm should get some acknowledgement for being the first storm ever in the Atlantic to form over Florida, and the first to form over land since 1988. I think Julia might be able to become a tropical storm again. T  G  15:11, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Been a while, but I've watched Julia closely. What a strange storm! First it forms over land, and then completely confounds the NHC by not going even close to it's forecast track. New convection just covered up the center, and if it persists, it could allow Julia to survive longer and finally not be just a weak TS. As long as nobody's getting killed, I love storms that are unpredictable. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:38, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Julia is still hanging on, and has been kept at 30 mph/1010 mbar as of latest advisory. The NHC has noted that Julia is keeping enough shower activity to retain tropical depression status for now. I really like unpredictable storms too, since they are interesting and 'cause they could frustrate forecasters. :P I also liked how Julia became the first tropical cyclone on record to form over Florida. It is just unusual for TCs to form over land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:58, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Julia
It is FINALLY dead. It was seriously retaining TD status for SO LONG. Time to focus on Karl's threat to Bermuda... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:42, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * A bit surprised by this, as it happened when there was a possibility that Julia could restrengthen. It must have gotten bored. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 07:10, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested and on the TWO at 10/20, new wave southeast of Cape Verde looks interesting. Models take this on a more westward path than Ian, and EURO thinks this will develop into a hurricane. Will be interesting to see what comes from this invest. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:20, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS doesn't do much with this, though the Euro makes this a hurricane down the road, but like Gaston, turning north and out to sea. Both models also develop a tropical storm near Cape Verde behind this thing next week, and that would bring us to Karl if this becomes Julia. Ryan1000 02:47, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50% for 5 days, but like many a storm this season, it's expected to turn north of west down the road and eventually head out to sea. Ryan1000 12:16, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * As of the latest TWO, it's 40/60; future Karl may have to follow a similar path to storms such as Gaston in the future. I really hope this becomes a hurricane as long as it remains away from land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:17, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve
Here comes potential future Karl... forecast to briefly reach 35 kts before weakening back to a depression, and the NHC discussion notes the possibility of degeneration into a tropical wave. Forecast to re-strengthen a tiny bit near the end of the forecast period, but with the middle of the forecast period being so grim, I'm not holding my breath. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl-to-be actually might be a threat to the U.S. in the long run if it weakens or dies out temporarily, like how the wave that became Hermine took a while to form but it eventually hit Florida as a hurricane. But it all depends on how conditions near the Bahamas and Florida are by that time. Still way too early to tell if this will be a fish. Ryan1000 19:27, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is still not named. I have a an if-then conditional statement about TD#12: If this storm doesn't get named now, then it will stay unnamed until this coming Monday. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:36, September 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * According to ATCF, we have Karl. AL, 12, 2016091600,, BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 140, 80, 0, 80, 1011, 160, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, In fact, we could have had Karl at the 5pm advisory, as the RBT was retroactively updated to make this a 35-kt TS at 18z. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:04, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Karl
And we have Karl. As of the latest advisory, 40 kts and 1005 millibars. NHC sees Karl to remain a tropical storm until Tuesday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:47, September 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS and Euro eventually take this to Bermuda in the long run, the latter of which makes Karl a cat 4 by then, though the system behind Karl (possibly Lisa) they don't do much at all with. Ryan1000 11:02, September 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC's taking Karl to hurricane strength by the end of the forecast with Bermuda being threatened over the long run. I hope it becomes something strong as long as it steers clear of Bermuda or any other landmass. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:43, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Models, including the GFS and ECMWF, continue to show a hurricane-force system over Bermuda next week. According to the NHC, dry air isn't expected to be much of a problem now. Bermuda should start getting prepared for some impact. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:30, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl is struggling for now, but soon we could se a nice hurricane. Bermuda should be prepared for impacts after Gonzalo, but hopefully it misses Bermuda if it chooses to become a strong hurricane. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:41, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The GFS takes Karl just north of the small island as a cat 1 storm in 216 hours, but the latest run of the Euro takes Karl just south of Bermuda as a 923 mbar category 5 monster by that time. If Karl takes the average of the two models it could be a fairly powerful hurricane when it comes within range of the island a week from now or so. However, Bermuda is probably the only land that could be hit by Karl down the road. It probably won't hit anywhere else; none of the models even remotely make Karl a danger to the Lesser Antilles, and we have another trough to protect the U.S. East Coast from a landfall, just like we did with Gaston. That just leaves the question of whether Karl will eventually be a re-Fabian, hopefully its not. Ryan1000 21:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The Euro run you mention just scares me. :O This could end up as one of the most destructive TC's in Bermudian history if that occurred. Hopefully, Karl strengthens a lot BUT  weakens significantly upon reaching Bermuda. The name "Karl" just sounds like a strong name to me and a strong storm would be amazing, as long as Bermuda is spared... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:02, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC noted in their latest forecast discussion that the ridge of high pressure north of Karl may strengthen when Karl encounters favorable enough conditions to become a hurricane, and they've taken the forecast track a little bit further west with that, but it's still more likely than not that Karl will turn north and then east before hitting the U.S. Also, if it does head farther west late in the forecast period, that means that Karl may also miss Bermuda on its way out to sea, which would be a best-case scenario regarding impacts. Ryan1000 01:41, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The GFS has been making Karl an extremely powerful hurricane near Bermuda from 219-288 hours out. I hope people in Bermuda stay safe next week! T  G  20:00, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Karl is still a weak tropical storm - at 40 mph and 1006 mbars as of the most recent advisory. This is not good... if that panned out Bermuda might get one of their most destructive storms on record. I REALLY hope Bermuda residents are preparing for the hurricane. Karl, leave the island alone! I hope it tracks west of Bermuda, or they are in danger... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:47, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * The global models have lately been taking Karl farther west but then passing due east and thus south of Bermuda. That could be good news, but a lot of things could change, and Karl has really been struggling with its intensity over the past few days due to a somewhat stable atmosphere surrounding it and an upper level low shearing off some of its convection. This could change after 3 days, and NHC expects Karl to become a 100 mph category 2 storm at the end of the forecast period, but even that might be conservative given the very favorable environment of that area. Ryan1000 11:00, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Karl's strength is still the same as my previous post. This is struggling to intensify, probably due to unfavorable conditions. Bermuda should still prepare themselves regardless. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:49, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

I don't want to fully let my guard down yet, but thankfully the NHC track has been recurving Karl before it reaches Bermuda over the past few advisories, so maybe Karl won't be as bad as it was earlier anticipated, though the 18Z GFS run still takes Karl fairly close to the island as a hurricane and it's not out of the question they could be hit. It all depends on how fast and when Karl decides to become a hurricane. The sooner, the stronger it'll be, but also the more likely it'll recurve before hitting Bermuda. Ryan1000 02:36, September 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl is still struggling with shear, and has weakened from 40 knots back to 35 knots. This may not be good, as being weaker, it could take a more westerly track and recurve late. In that case, Bermuda would be more likely to be hit. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:11, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Karl
Down to 30 kt. NHC has no idea whether a closed circulation exists or not. Said they won't be surprised if Karl has dissipated.--182.58.125.235 09:48, September 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl has been struggling with unfavorable conditions a lot more than I thought it would at this point, if Karl dies or remains this weak, it might avoid the trough to its north and continue to head due west towards Florida and the Bahamas instead of recurve north and out to sea. Ryan1000 11:18, September 21, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Behind TD 12
This is behind TD 12, and could become something right near Africa before conditions become unfavorable later on. Ryan1000 22:44, September 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now at 30/50 currently and will be nothing more than a weakling if it develops. I wouldn't like to see the name "Lisa" being stolen by a weakling, so it would be best for this to peak at a TD at most or even try to surprise everyone by becoming a hurricane (extremely doubtful though). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:46, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
30/60. Models show at most a weak tropical storm being absorbed by Karl. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:27, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40/70. I definitely think we can get Lisa out of this one. T  G  15:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The AOI text no longer mentions any unfavorable conditions - but we still shouldn't rule those conditions out in the long run. If it is Lisa, I do not want to see a weak fail. If it does end up entering unfavorable conditions, a TD is enough for me. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:06, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The invest is now up to 50/80. But, bad news - the NHC is again mentioning unfavorable conditions. This might only be a weak failure. >:( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:50, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * 70/80. Hopefully this remains a TD and doesn't become a name-stealer, since conditions are going to become unfavourable tomorrow. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:14, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * We have td 13 and its expect to be a 60mph storm so not a complete failure. I am expecting a peak of 65mph because of its large size, Anyways It looks poised to become Lisa. We will see though if it can strength further if it can reduce its size.Allanjeffs 21:31, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
Now upgraded according to Allanjeffs' post and the NHC. Depression Thirteen is expected to become Lisa, and I hope it does not end up stealing a name. It might reach more than 60 mph if we get some luck. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:54, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Even if it becomes named, it'll likely die before hitting any land areas, discounting Cabo Verde. The last time Lisa was used in 2010, it formed in a similar area to this one and it became a hurricane despite being forecast not to do so, hopefully Lisa-to-be can pull that off this time around too. Ryan1000 02:40, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lisa
Now named. Strength as of 11:00 AM (AST): 40 mph; 1007 mbar. T G  17:25, September 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Went up to 45/1004 with the latest advisory (a little late though). Ryan1000 22:09, September 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Peaked at 45 kts/1002 mbar earlier but has since gone back down to 40/1004. Pending whatever happens to this and Karl, only five of this season's twelve storms so far have strengthened beyond 45 kts, one of which only just barely did so. That's pathetic! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:58, September 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, at least it's not 2013, that year was so awful regarding storm intensity, it was painful to track the storms that year. And even if Lisa and/or Karl don't become hurricanes, there's still October, and some of the models have been forecasting something nasty to pop up near the start of October. The last few runs of the GFS in particular are making something big in the Caribbean around 200 hours, we should still keep our eyes out for a potentially destructive late-season hurricane. Ryan1000 01:53, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions
(credit to Steve for the colors)
 * Alex - <font color="#669">1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022!
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022.
 * Colin - <font color="#449">5%  - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then.
 * Danielle - <font color="#669">1% - Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022.
 * Earl - 70% - Caused at least 65 total deaths, making it the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy, and Mexico's deadliest storm since Stan. I think Earl deserves to be retired, but it's not definite. At least $100 million in damage. Has a fairly high chance of retirement. It's quite likely he won't return in 2022.
 * Fiona - 0% - Didn't fail quite as badly as originally thought, as she reached 50 mph for a brief time and survived some moderate shear. Nevertheless, she was still a fail. Fiona the Fish Failicia will be back in 2022.
 * Gaston - 0% - Gastonic Gaston was awesome. Passed north of the Azores, but no damage or deaths were reported. See you in 2022!
 * Hermine - <font color="#390">35% - Ended the 11-year Florida hurricane drought and caused at least $500 million in damage and 5 deaths. Hermine has a chance to go, but I think it's more than likely it will stay.
 * Ian - 0% - Weak fishspinner, luckily it managed to reach 60 mph. Ian will return in 2022.

~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM LISA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions and storm grades:
(Other users can feel free to use my colors)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

(Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++, A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: Grade: <font color="#094">A+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - In the Azores, it caused a death and minimal damage. It was an amazing early season hurricane and one of the earliest hurricanes on record. Its "being early" achievement alone is deserving of the grade I gave. It still could have been better though, like a major hurricane not affecting land.
 * Bonnie: Grade: D- Retirement: <font color="#449">5%  - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. It was just a weak TS that barely amounted to much, but the fact that it was the second pre-season storm and that it regenerated increases its grade. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.
 * Colin: Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement:  10%  - Colin was the earliest 3rd named storm on record, enough to raise the grade by about a letter. However, it was really disorganized. 4 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement.
 * Danielle: Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1%  - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. It was also the earliest 4th named storm on record, enough to raise the grade a little.
 * Earl: Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#F70">75%  - Gets credit for being a hurricane and especially for restrengthening over the BOC, but the damage and deaths it caused is enough to lower the grade a little. 65 deaths and at least $115.5 million dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This storm has a high shot at retirement due to the destruction and deadly floods and mudslides that it caused throughout Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, as well as the deaths it caused as a tropical wave. It was the deadliest storm to strike Mexico since Stan in 2005, and the deadliest storm overall in the Atlantic since Sandy. If Stan was retired, this likely will be too. I doubt Earl will still be around in 2022.
 * Fiona: Grade:  D-  Retirement:  0%  - A storm that tried and fought the dry air well, but it was weak so I cannot give it any higher than a D-.
 * Gaston: Grade:  A  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - An impressive major hurricane that fought to stay alive. It also became a cool annular hurricane with a big eye. It didn't cause damage or kill people. But it did touch the Azores, preventing a complete 0%.
 * Eight: Grade: <font color="#500">Z  Retirement:  You can't retire a TD. :P  - A laughable fail. It never became a TS despite repeated predictions for it to become one. XD
 * Hermine: Grade:  B-  Retirement:  40%  - This seems to have a chance, with at least 500 million in damage and 5 deaths. Destruction in Florida was not good - photos showed many forced from their homes as well as bad flooding, destroyed roads, people using canoes to get to places, and more. If Isaac was snubbed, this might have a lower chance of retirement than at first glance. For the grade, it gets points for breaking the Florida hurricane landfall drought, and being the first GOM hurricane since Ingrid.
 * Ian: Grade:  F  Retirement:  0%   - Just a weak fishspinner, but a good 60 mph peak prevents a "Z" grade.
 * Julia: Grade:  D+  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - Gets a real upping of the grade for doing awesome stunts, such as forming over land (first to do so since 1988!) and the first storm on record to form directly over Florida. It also lasted a while as a TD after weakening late in its life. However, it was still a weakling, so I cannot give anything higher than the D range. Any damage was minimal and no deaths have occurred, so far.

Raindrop's Retirements
(Retirement colors:   0% , <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% ,  10% , <font color="#049">15% ,  20% , <font color="#094">25% ,  30% , <font color="#390">35% ,  40% , <font color="#CF0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% ,  70% , <font color="#F70">75% ,  80% , <font color="#F20">85% ,  90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022.
 * Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: <font color="#669">2% - 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though.
 * Danielle: <font color="#669">1% - Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed.
 * Earl: <font color="#CF0">45%  - Wow, Earl really had a big impact for a category 1 hurricane! The flooding turned out to be extensive and the death toll is over 60 now. This means Earl definitely has a shot at retirement. Due to the NHC being conservative about retiring names and the fact that current damage totals are not too extensive yet, I'm keeping the odds of retirement worse than even, but Earl has caused major disruption to an entire country and this may need to be raised later.
 * Fiona:  0%  - Fiona was a weak storm, but it fought! Fiona tried her best through days of strong shear, but eventually lost the battle. However, Fiona's ghost still wanted to haunt us and contributed to the formation of TD8. Fiona was actually a pretty fun storm to track, and for the first time this year, it only spun fish.
 * Gaston:  0%  - Our first major hurricane of the season, Gaston, put on an impressive show while never threatening any land  - actually Gaston threatened the Azores, but weakened rapidly and did nothing. Gaston looked pretty bad during the period of high shear, but once that was gone, Gaston did not dissapoint! Gaston's lame attempt at affecting land doesn't even give it the slightest shot at retirement, considering Alex did practically nothing to the Azores. RIP Gaston, you were an amazing storm!
 * Hermine: <font color="#094">25%  - Hermine was the storm that finally brought the Florida hurricane drought to an end. Of course, that comes with a cost. Rainfall has been extensive with Hermine, and the storm surge has been bad, and it appears more impacts are yet to come. With the potential for future impacts, Hermine is not done yet despite no longer being tropical, and it stands a shot of retirement. However, the NHC snubbed Issac and other storms that hit the US and did damage, so the chance will remain low unless damage totals end up being a few billion dollars, which is hopefully not the case.
 * Ian:  0%  - Ian was a not-so-great fish storm that did manage to reach 60 mph before becoming extratropical. The most notable thing about Ian was that is was rocketing NE at over 50 mph when it became extratropical.
 * Julia: <font color="#669">1%  (Preliminary) - Julia formed OVER LAND, but despite that enigma didn't do much so far. This is still a preliminary estimate because Julia has consistently defied forecast predictions and may not be done with yet, and could still end up anywhere.
 * Karl: TBD - We'll see what Karl does to land,if anything, eventually, but right now nothing significant has happened yet.

Puffle's retirement predictions
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)


 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Alex : <font color="#669">1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bonnie : <font color="#449">5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. T  G  20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Colin : 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022.  T G  12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danielle : <font color="#449">5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm.   T G  17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Earl : 90% - Deadliest in Mexico since Stan, more damaging than Iris, what else can make this go? Earl pretty much devastated Mexico, and Mexico actually issued a state of emergency. The one reason Karl didn't go was because it only caused lots of damage and few fatalities. Earl caused both a high number of damage and fatalities, which is basically what made Stan go in 2005.  T G  17:38, August 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Fiona : 0% - Finally, a break from casualties, but Fiona was a very disappointing storm, much like its 2010 predecessor. T  G  22:01, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Gaston : <font color="#669">1% - Gaston didn't do anything in the Azores, but he gets a 1% chance for affecting the area. Gaston might be my favorite looking Atlantic storm.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Hermine : 30% - Hermine does have a chance to go, but we saw many storms snubbed by the United States in the past few years, such as Fay and Isaac. Damage totals from Hermine are $228.5 million, roughly $300 million below Fay's damage and around $2 billion less than Isaac.  T G  20:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ian : <font color="#449">5% - Ian caused some minor impacts in Iceland, which is very unusual for a storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Julia : <font color="#669">1% - Julia does get acknowledgement for being the first storm since 1988 to form over land. Julia didn't do much on land, and it was a very weak storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Karl : <font color="#669">1% - Karl caused some minimal damage in Cape Verde. Now it's time to focus on Bermuda. T  G  13:18, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Lisa : <font color="#669">1% - Lisa also caused minor damage in Cape Verde. Otherwise, Lisa will stay in the open waters for sure. T  G  20:14, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Leeboy's retirements.
Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1.1%-   Early  and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% isn't due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased.
 * Bonnie-<font color="#449">5%: My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement.
 * Colin- 10%:  Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly.

Leeboy100 Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle-  <font color="#449">5%:  Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death.
 * Earl:  50%:  Wow, I did not expect it to be this bad, this actually has a fair chance of retirement.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5.
 * 1) Alex: grade A, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022.
 * 2) Bonnie: grade C, retirement 10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low.
 * 3) Colin: grade C, retirement 15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C.
 * 4) Danielle: grade D, retirement 5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality.
 * 5) Earl: grade B, retirement 65%. Nice start to August after an absolutely horrible July, but there have been 67 deaths overall, making Earl the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy. The damage total has gone up to at least US$250 million, with most of that from Belize and Mexico. This indeed has a decent chance of leaving the lists.
 * 6) Fiona: E, retirement 0%. First storm that hasn't affected land. Unfortunately it was weak.
 * 7) Gaston: grade A, retirement 5%. Became a major twice, with the second time at unusually high latitude. Azores impact was minor.
 * 8) Hermine: grade B, retirement 50%. It pulled itself together to become a hurricane at the last minute after a frustrating two weeks hoping it would actually become something, and broke Florida's 11-year hurricane-proof streak. Unfortunately the severity of damage is alarming, with damage estimated at US$500 million, but luckily the death toll is low. There's a 50-50 chance this will be retired.
 * 9) Ian: grade E, retirement 0%. Strengthened to 50 knots, but overall still a name-stealer.
 * 10) Julia: D, retirement 5%. This formed over Florida and lasted for a surprisingly long time, but didn't cause much significant impact.
 * 11) Karl: currently active, retirement wait and see. This could have significant impacts on Bermuda, so let's wait.

~ KN2731 {talk} 11:20, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
We have enough storms by now for me to start: There you have it...for now. Ryan1000 21:08, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 1% - Killed a person and caused a little damage in the Azores, on top of being a very rare January hurricane. Not negligible, but not enough for retirement either.
 * Bonnie - 2% - Killed two people and caused some damage in South Carolina from floods, on top of being the second pre-season storm in an Atlantic season in only 4 years. Still not enough for retirement though.
 * Colin - 4% - Earliest 3rd storm and was a little deadlier than Bonnie and Alex, but still rather minor overall.
 * Danielle - 1% - Earliest 4th storm, but Danielle only caused minor impacts in Mexico and probably won't get retired.
 * Earl - 65% - The death toll has been upped to more than 60, mostly in Mexico, and there was at least 250 million in damage (110 million in Belize alone) from Earl, which is rather extensive, though not catastrophic. If the final damage totals turn out to be what I fear they could be (around 1+ billion), then this is probably a guaranteed retirement. It was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Not a complete fail but was a fishspinner nonetheless, so no
 * Gaston - 1% - Passed over the western Azores as a tropical storm, so it had some minor land impacts, but it's not enough.
 * Hermine - 30% - 5 deaths and 500 million in damage isn't negligible, but for the the U.S, it's likely not enough. Keep in mind the U.S. did snub storms like Isaac '12 and Fay '08, both of which were more destructive and deadly than Hermine.
 * Ian - 0% - Not a pathetic fail but a fishspinner regardless.
 * Julia - 1% - Didn't expect this to form over Florida, but it wasn't too bad either way.
 * Karl - ?? - Still active, but it could affect Bermuda in the long run.

iBahan1829's List Of Retirement Candidates
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:50, August 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) Category 1 Alex: 0.1%: Barely any damage to the Azores. So, Alex will return in 2022.
 * 2) Tropical Storm Bonnie: 0.1%: Like Alex, Bonnie did barely any damage to any land. Regeneration was neat, but this storm ended up weak anyway.
 * 3) Tropical Storm Colin: 1%: Actually did something. Flooded multiple Florida cities and that's pretty much all it did. Debby was worse, but it still wasn't retired. Colin will stay for 2022.
 * 4) Tropical Storm Danielle: 0.1%: Repeat of Alex and Bonnie. Next!
 * 5) Category 1 Earl: 55%: Okay, now we're talking. ~60 deaths!? Holy cow! Bad Earl! On top of that, it caused havoc in Belize! This might actually get retired.
 * 6) Tropical Storm Fiona: 0%: Fiona is equal to fish, so I might as well give this a 0%.
 * 7) Category 3 Gaston: 2%: Could be the second tropical storm this year to impact the Azores, so that 2% is what I predict.
 * 8) Category 1 Hermine: 40-50%: This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact FLORIDA, and the first hurricane to impact Florida period since Wilma of October 2005 . So, good luck, Florida. Oh, and by the way, Florida is the 20%, the other 20-30% is the U.S. east coast and New England...

Allan´s retirement Predictions
1. Alex 0.1%  Even though it was a really good surprise, and had an indirect death,its nothing for it to be retire from the list. So we will see him again in 2022.

2. Bonnie 0.1% She was a fighter not going to doubt it, She even came back from death but its impact in the states were minimal at most. She just tickle some states. The 2 deads will not make the states ask for her, so Sayonara until 2022.

3,Colin 0.1% Damages were even less than Bonnie but he produce double of deads. That .1% its just becausse it affect land because imo it merits a zero.

4. Danielle 0.1% Weakest storm so far in 2016 and it just produce 1 death. Her effects on Mexico were minimal and at most they were overshadow by Earl later on. So see you in 2022 beotch.

5. Earl 65% the real deal of the season so far. His damages in Belize are compare to those of Iris in 2001 it has already produce 100,000 dollars in damage and its not final tally in that country. Earl big chance of retirement comes from its effects in Mexico where it has 52 deads so far and its describe as the worst storm in Puebla´s history. It produce damages to other states too. With the death toll in a country that prides itself from being prepare to this types of disasters it was a hard hit for Mexico´s ego. Imo they will not condone this one to be staying. I am not counting the DR because the fatalities were when Earl was disturbance and not a storm as such it might not count  for choice in retirement. Allanjeffs 20:36, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Isaac's prediction
0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%. -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:18, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 0% - Little damage to Azores.
 * Bonnie - 0% - Less than $1 million in damage.
 * Colin - 0% - Minimal damage.
 * Danielle - 0% - Little damage.
 * Earl - 50% - Over $100 million in damage and 67 deaths, a good possibility.
 * Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Gaston - ?

Owen's prediction
Owen 04:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: 0% - Neat January hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were minor.
 * Bonnie: 0% - Minimal tropical storm and minimal land impact.
 * Colin: 0% - The real problem caused by Colin was flooding, but Debby of 2012 was worse and wasn't retired.
 * Danielle: 0% - Mexico has seen worse.
 * Earl: 50% - I'm giving Earl a 50/50 chance because there has been past hurricanes such as Karl which were ultimately snubbed by Mexico, but my gut feeling is it will go if it's the worst death toll since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Disappointing fish storm that didn't really do much.
 * Gaston - 0% - He was a pretty nice major hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were ultimately minimal at best.
 * Hermine - 25% - I don't forsee Hermine going, despite the fact she was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 11 years. The damages were less than Fay of 2008, which wasn't retired.
 * Ian - 0% - I honestly wish the name went to a much stronger storm this year, but it ended up being a moderate tropical storm that was just a fish.
 * Julia - 0% - Again, it was neat seeing another uncommon thing like her forming overland, but impacts were minor at best in Florida.
 * Karl - TBA - It's a little to early to tell where he will end up, but I'll update this as time progresses.

Post-Season Changes
I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC finally released the TCR for Alex today, but there's no change to its peak intensity (still at 85 mph, 981 mbars); however it was downgraded to a 65 mph storm on it's landfall in the Azores island of Terceira in reanalysis, from 70 mph operationally. Ryan1000 20:49, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Although Alex's peak intensity was not changed, something cool about the TCR was that it was found to have formed a full day earlier than originally thought. This means the 2016 Atlantic season officially started on January 12, not January 13. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 00:19, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Danielle is out. Little change, if any. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:11, September 21, 2016 (UTC)

Replacement names
Earl is looking to be a surprisingly good candidate for retirement at this point, given the rather high death toll in Mexico and damage in Belize, despite its low intensity. So...if Earl does get retired, what do you think it should be replaced by? Some of my suggestions are here:
 * Edvin
 * Edgar
 * Elan
 * Eli(e)
 * Elvin
 * Emmett
 * Emile
 * Elliot
 * Elric
 * Evan
 * Ethan
 * Elwin
 * Elwood
 * Elson

Like with Joaquin last year, there are a lot of good "E" names available to replace Earl given that 1) relatively few "E" names have been retired, and 2) none of the "E" retirees we have had were male names. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd go with either Edgar or Evan. T  G  10:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * My vote goes to Elliott, spelled the same way as Elliott Smith. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Edgar and Elvis would be some good replacements. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Mexico's track record might mean this could have a lower shot of retirement (especially since they snubbed storms such as Alex and Karl), but I personally think it has a pretty good shot at getting retired, since it was the deadliest hurricane since Sandy and caused at least $100 million in damage (in Belize alone). Once Mexico damage tolls come out, I won't be surprised if the toll skyrockets past $1 billion. My favorite replacement names out of Ryan's list are Edgar, Elliot, Evan, and Ethan. I also suggest Emmanuel, and as Bob said above, Elvis (a storm named after Elvis Presley would be epic!). <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't really like having the name "Elvis" on the lists because of "Hurricane Elvis" in 2003, which was a deadly derecho that struck Memphis with 100 mph winds. T  G  10:56, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Steve, The thing is that I think Mexico didnt retired Karl because it didnt caused a lot of deads like Earl has done. Its now being said in the news that this have been the worst storm on record for Puebla in terrms of death toll. Maybe the damage of Karl was extensive but I am pretty sure many Mexicans do not remember him because the death toll was low and most damage was concentrated in Veracruz. Meanwhile Earl have caused trouble in Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Queretaro and Hidalgo to mention some. Being Mexico the most affected of the countries in the path of Earl I believe its replacement will be in Spanish so Elias, Efrain,Emanuel or Edgar are good candidates for replacement. If Belize is the one to request it for retirement the name might be one usually use in English. Allanjeffs 17:58, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Here are some more "E" names: Andros 1337 (talk) 21:11, August 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Edwin
 * Elmo
 * Emilio
 * Enrico
 * Enzo
 * Emanuel
 * Emanuele
 * Evaristo
 * Evandro
 * Edison
 * Edmond
 * Elton
 * Emery
 * Eustace


 * I would really hate seeing Emanuel on the list due to confusion with the very similar name, Manuel. T  G  11:00, August 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I was going to mention that too, I doubt Em(m)anuel will be chosen to replace Earl, especially since the country most affected by Earl (Mexico) retired Manuel just 3 years ago. My favorite choice would be Evan, but if Mexico submits Spanish names then Esteban would be my pick. Emilio and Enrico are also possible but they could be confused with Emilia (the female version of the name, and scheduled for the 2018 EPac season) and Enrique (used last year in the EPac). Ryan1000 04:47, August 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * With Joaquin last year, we've seen that replacement names don't have to match the country or the language of the retired name. Edwin or Edvin, Edgar, Edison or Elvis sound more likely from the NHC. Unless the NHC decides to continue with names of popular movie/TV characters and goes with Elmo. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:14, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it's not a universal rule of thumb (Felix '07 hit Nicaragua hard, a Spanish-speaking country, but they chose Fernand, the French version of Fernando, to replace him), but it's usually more likely for said affected country to submit names of their language, and the WMO usually picks the first of the 3-4 names that are submitted to them for replacement. Ryan1000 03:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)