Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

August
Has begun, but EPac is currently quiet. Ryan1000 17:56, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Well, it technically didn't come out of no where, but it did for NHC. 30%.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:08, August 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50%. Cyclone10  E-Mail  06:04, August 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * It could become Gilma unless it becomes a bust as the others.Allanjeffs 06:59, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gilma
It's here. Forecast to become a bit stronger, but not become a hurricane. Ryan1000 15:11, August 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * It looks like it's already trying to develop a eye. Supportstorm (talk) 19:52, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Another storm that defies NHC. It doesn't want to weaken from dry air and it doesn't want to remain a tropical storm. Forecast to become a hurricane now... Ryan1000 17:58, August 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is the third straight advisory Gilma's been at 70 mph. Starting to have my doubts... --HurricaneMaker99 22:06, August 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * I may stand corrected. ATCF has Gilma at 75 mph/987 mbar, so we'll see if that sticks as the advisory intensity. --HurricaneMaker99 00:58, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Probrably will be a C1 storm. Also, if that happens, it would be the 6th consecutive hurricane of this season. While it's not the record (8, counting CPac, in 1992), it's still impressive. Ryan1000 02:16, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Gilma
When I saw this, NHC's site said " Hurricane GILMA : ...GILMA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH..." 75 mph, 987 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 02:51, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Lol. Not going to get much stronger, and should be weakening from here on out. Ryan1000 18:58, August 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I'm thinking it peaked at 80 mph/984 mbar earlier today. --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gilma (2nd time)
Back to TS.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:40, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 50 knts. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:41, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gilma
Downgraded to a TD with the 8 am advisory. 18z ATCF says Gilma is post-tropical; the next advisory should be the last. --HurricaneMaker99 19:18, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma
Right on cue. --HurricaneMaker99 20:58, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
0%.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:02, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Highly unlikely to become named. 92E could, but definitely not this. Ryan1000 17:05, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Starting to cross the Date Line now &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:00, August 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now 92W. Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:28, August 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * And it's back, 0%. Cyclone10  E-Mail  02:51, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Has everyone abandoned this forum? This has been around for a while and will probrably become Hector. 30% atm. Ryan1000 02:12, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * I saw it but forgot that there hadn't been a post about it on the forum. --HurricaneMaker99 02:48, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * I had seen it but it has recently been dropped from 50% to 30%.Allanjeffs 03:04, August 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * And 30% down to nothing. Ernesto is going to eat 93E. Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:17, August 10, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi:Ernesto
30% atm.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:12, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * 60%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:35, August 10, 2012 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invested. -- Cyclone10 E-Mail  19:06, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * the fattest invest I had ever seen in the epac.Allanjeffs 00:53, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Invest obesity anyone? YE Tropical Cyclone  04:40, August 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * 90%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  13:10, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hey lookie here! Seems ol' Ernie is making a comeback! Of course, it won't be renamed Ernesto because he died over land, but this is our first crossover from either side since Alma led to Arthur in 2008. Ryan1000 13:29, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * reunumberinvest_RENUMBER_ep942012_ep082012.ren and now in the NHC page.Allanjeffs 17:09, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E
Special advisory issued by NHC. 35 mph, 1002 mbar. Expected to peak as a minimal hurricane. --HurricaneMaker99 17:15, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

7th straight hurricane? And Ryan, didn't Eleven-E lead to Hermine in 2010 (or did it degenerate)? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:40, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

11-E of 2010 merged with another area of low pressure when it came into the BOC before it became Hermine. I don't directly consider 11-E and Hermine as the same storm for that reason. Alma-Arthur of 2008 is another example. Although Arthur formed out of Alma's remnants, Alma's remnants merged with another area of low pressure before they became Arthur, plus Alma, like 11-E, didn't survive Central America. Ever since the two-name rule was outlawed in the Atlantic after Cesar-Douglas of 1996, we haven't had a single Atlantic or EPac storm survive Central America over to the other side. I hope we can see one soon, but if this becomes named, it will be Hector, not Ernesto again. Ryan1000 01:02, August 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's a tropical storm based on the ATCF so yeah, I'm sure it's going to be Hector since the circulation that was Ernesto died just before it reached the Pacific and that this is a new circulation that form in the chaos of the murder of Ernesto. Supportstorm (talk) 01:10, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hector
Official per NHC. 40 mph, 999 mbar, but now it's only forecast to peak at 65 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 02:46, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not too surprising since the models are considerably lower than previous runs. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:53, August 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * The wind field is big compared to other storms this year. BTW, I changed my username, just like Kiewii. Isaac829 E-Mail  06:24, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, of course due to the size of the system while it was an invest. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:37, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane but Hector's large, broad size will hinder it from becoming one. Not to say it's impossible, but not very likely. Ryan1000 17:49, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its looks terrible it will probably not be a hurricane.Allanjeffs 19:08, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC is now saying Hector won't even strengthen beyond where he is now (45 mph winds). Smells like a combo-breaker. --HurricaneMaker99 20:56, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Seems like Hector wants to break the hurricane streak. Simlover123 (talk) 03:10, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * I still think It'll become a hurricane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:51, August 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't. Hector has weakened back to 40 mph. Isaac829 E-Mail  13:00, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * I doubt it will become a hurricane I will be very surprised if it can live until thursday.Allanjeffs 18:02, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting a hurricane from Hector either. In fact, it might die as soon as later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 20:45, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hector's center is starting to look exposed again. Simlover123 (talk) 03:15, August 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Should have never been Hector in my opinion it is Ernesto to me.Allanjeffs 03:22, August 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * I personally don't think they're gonna reclassify this as being Ernesto-Hector in post-season. I'm not willing to believe one bit that this thing survived Mexico. Anyways, no hurricane. Almost dead. Ryan1000 19:09, August 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * No, Ernesto and Hector are different systems. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:19, August 15, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Hector
Almost out.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:41, August 15, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Hector
Out: ONLY A FEW WIMPY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF HECTOR DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE DURING THAT TIME. -- Isaac829 E-Mail  14:31, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

Haha, lols. I love it when they say stuff like that. Ryan1000 05:11, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
10% atm, but it looks a helluva lot better than Hector. May become Ileana over the next few days. Ryan1000 18:14, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

20%. May become Ileana, but it's proxmitity to land will probrably keep it from becoming a hurricane. Ryan1000 02:37, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 10%Allanjeffs 18:00, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

It's down, but it's not out. Ryan1000 20:45, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

0% and almost out. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:18, August 14, 2012 (UTC)

out.Allanjeffs 08:33, August 14, 2012 (UTC)

Oh well. Ileana will come later. Ryan1000 19:09, August 14, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi: West Mexico
10% atm.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  16:20, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested, but still at 10%. --HurricaneMaker99 23:48, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

Don't see much coming. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:06, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Isaac829 E-Mail  01:11, August 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Not even close.
 * Bud - 5% - It brought beneficial rain.
 * Carlotta - 7% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Daniel - 0% - Missed all landmass.
 * Emilia - 0% - Doubt it.
 * Fabio - 0% - No damage as a TC.
 * Gilma - 0% - See Aletta.
 * Hector - 0% - No.

Mine:


 * Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but had no impact on land.
 * Bud - 2% - Fun storm to follow, but not enough damage.
 * Carlotta - 5% - Killed two girls.
 * Daniel - 0% - Impressive major hurricane, but no.
 * Emilia - 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio - 0% - Became a hurricane, but didn't do anything tropical.
 * Gilma - 0% - See Fabio's section.
 * Hector - 0% - Nah, no.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Mine
 * Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.
 * Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.
 * Carlotta-15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying.
 * Daniel- 0%love you but no
 * Emilia 0% meh nothing just a cat 4 in here
 * Fabio 0 % just rain to LA and nothing more.
 * Gilma0% didn`t affect land.
 * Hector 0% First fail of the season pathetic


 * Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement.
 * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you.
 * Carlotta - 10% - It caused some impacts in Mexico, but it definitely wasn't severe enough for retirement.
 * Daniel - 0% - Didn't affect any land.
 * Emilia - 0% - Strongest of the season, but never hit land
 * Fabio - Nothing to really say here.
 * Gilma - 0% - Became a hurricane, but nothing else.
 * Hector - 0% - No effects on land.

CobraStrike:


 * Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm.
 * Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement.

 CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

True Golden Blaze: True Golden Blaze 01:35, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta- Meh, no.
 * Bud - 1.5% Gave Mexico a little shock, but didn't do much.
 * Carlotta - 11.5% Carlotta's landfall did pull off some deaths, but not enough to get it's name crossed out.
 * Daniel - Will do nothing and die out in the cold Central Pacific waters.
 * Emilia - Some waves but no threat to land. At current intensifying rate, could get a Cat 3 or 4.

Well, it's time for mine I guess. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:19, August 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0%
 * Bud - 0%
 * Carlotta - 0%
 * Daniel - 0%
 * Emilia - 0%
 * Fabio - 0%
 * Gilma - 0%

Kiewii, are you sure about Bud and Carlotta? They had minimal damage. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:42, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Of course I'm sure. It is very obvious they will not be retired so there isn't any need for any percentages. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:16, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, I just wouldn't say 0% for Bud/Carlotta since they did affect land and did kill people. Not to say I think they will be retired, but I don't think they deserve a 0%. Ryan1000 17:53, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

​Simlover123 (talk) 03:15, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta: 0% - Absolutely no effects on land masses.
 * Bud: 3% - Some effects on Mexico
 * Carlotta: 5% - Killed two girls and slight damage.
 * Daniel: 0% - Only slight effects on Hawaii.
 * Emilia: 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio: 0% - Nothing to say.
 * Gilma: 0% - No land masses affected.
 * Hector: TBA

Mid-season predictions
Entering the year, after over predicting the last two years, I set my exceptions moderate, with 13-8-4. After an active early July and the GFS showing a major surge in activity a few weeks ago that turned into three fails, I raised it to 18-9-4 (though I have a bias towards the EPAC) and I started getting really excited. I've lowered mine to 14-10-5. Despite there being an El Nino, it has that quiet feel, it has the feel of a dead center and a big quiet phase. With all of the recent 80 and 90% busts, I am starting to get frustrated with the EPAC. Thank goodness for HURDAT going back pre-1995, or I would have not survived the two seasons. At least 2009, 2008, and 2006-00 were decent.

Ill apologize for my rant above, I just needed to get it off my chest. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:25, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I'll go with 14-9-6. Honestly, we should've reached Illena (if those three busts were upgraded). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:53, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I say 14 to 16 name storms this basin has really come down from producing 18 to 21 name storms to 12to 14 really sad.*signs*Allanjeffs 14:15, July 30, 2012 (UTC)