Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page   Wall   Edits  01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Over Africa
This isn't up on the TWO yet, but both the GFS and Euro are consistent at developing something near northern Cape Verde about a week from now, and following in Gaston's footsteps. Could be something to keep our eyes on in the long run. Ryan1000 16:26, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * This has a good shot at being Hermine or Ian depending on whether 99L/91L develop. Maybe it will be a hurricane. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am starting to think this will be Hermine - as 99L is the most annoying invest I have ever tracked, and at this point, I am starting to doubt development from that. This could have a shot at development over the next week or so. In the very long run, I hope it does not end up threatening anyone. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:31, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO at 0/30. Unlike Gaston, this wave is expected to take a more westward path, and unlike 99L, it has more model support. Could be interesting down the road... ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 17:48, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * I've checked the latest run of the GFS and Euro and both models take this directly towards the eastern seabord of the U.S. in a week and a half to 2 weeks as a fairly powerful storm. GFS takes this into Savannah as a major hurricane, and the Euro makes it a major hurricane just north of the Bahamas, and likely eventually hitting the east coast. This may be a bad storm down the road...assuming 99L can become Hermine in the GoM, this'll be Ian. Ryan1000 12:57, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 0/60. This is a strong tropical wave already, and looks to become a dangerous storm. 99L might just be the distraction while this system actually becomes "the big one". However, it's still many days out, so that isn't certain. The Atlantic sure is ramping up this year! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:59, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/50, but it's still likely to become something big over the open Atlantic down the road. Assuming TD's 8 and 9 both become Hermine and Ian, this would be Julia instead. Ryan1000 21:26, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is looking quite threatening down the road - we should keep our eyes out. I am really hoping this is no re-Hugo or Isabel like models suggest. Hopefully, it is just a fishspinning hurricane, that maybe even repeats its 2010 predecessor! ;) ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:19, August 28, 2016 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
And now it's been invested. Still at 0/50 though, but this is definitely something to watch this and next week. Ryan1000 04:58, August 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * For some odd reason, it's down to 0/40. It could be Julia assuming the two TD's that are taking too long to become named, eventually receive the names "Hermine" and "Ian". This is still something to look out over the long run. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:27, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/30 right now. The wave has dry air in its path to deal with. But it could develop once it reaches the Lesser Antilles by Monday. I hope it doesn't pull a 99L/Hermine and take weeks to develop... ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:59, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually it might be better for it to intensify sooner, so it's more likely to go north and then east and not hit land. The GFS and Euro are thoroughly underwhelmed by this system, they don't make it anything at all even after it passes the Lessers. Ryan1000 03:12, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20, but still could become something down the road. I've grouped this with September in the event it forms down the road; if it doesn't we can move it to the August archive. Ryan1000 12:37, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * At 10/20, and not looking likely to develop into much until beyond the 5-day window. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:46, September 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * It is now up to 20/30...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 13:29, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

Still at 20/30, but NHC says conditions in the Carribean Sea aren't forecast to be conducive. Ian may have to wait... ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:31, September 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unless 92L does what Hermine did and become tropical after leaving the Caribbean. Although in order for that to happen, 92L would have to enter the Gulf of Mexico, not up the US east coast nor away from the US & Mexico altogether. But invests are tricky to forecast sometimes, so we'll just have to see what 92L does...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:51, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/20. It doesn't look like 92L is going to develop unless it somehow makes it to the Gulf of Mexico. ~ Bob Page  Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 17:06, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now at 0/20. However, the NHC's wording now notes that conditions could become more favorable when it gets near the Yucatan Peninsula. 92L's been looking pretty organized for a while, actually. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:35, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I see 92L potentially becoming Ian by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula or even the GOM. It's going to take a while to develop, similar to 99L/Hermine. Hopefully it isn't anything destructive in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:47, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * What the?! It already dropped off the TWO... I guess conditions became TOO unfavorable. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:49, September 7, 2016 (UTC)

AOI.Straits of Florida
A new Area of Invest has popped up in the Straits of Florida. At 10/10 like 93L is, and it isn't expected to develop. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow. This is up to 40/40 now!  ~ Bob   <font face="Arial">Page <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 18:17, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Welp didn't expect this jump in percentage, but even if it somehow does manage to become a depression, upper-level winds aren't very conducive for development. Ryan1000 20:29, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30 and I would be surprised to see it develop. It if did develop, it might be a weaker version of Hermine. ~  <font face="Impact"> Steve    Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:26, September 10, 2016 (UTC)

92L.INVEST (2nd time)
I have moved this section to the discussion of invest 92L because this was in fact considered to be the same system as 92L and so was called invest 92L. This looked like a tropical depression earlier, but looks like it wasn't able to hang on long enough to be classified. It still has a small chance, but I doubt it. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 03:35, September 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * 10/10 and just forecast to weaken. Sorry, no TD here. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:31, September 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * poof* and it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve    Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:24, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave
Another tropical wave has been added to the TWO. 0/20, though not seeing much model support in the near term. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 17:06, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/30. Considering it's lack of model support I'd be surprised to see stronger than a TS from this though. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:36, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * EURO now develops this into a minimal TS in about 5 days. This is much more likely to be a Fiona part 2 rather than a long-track Cape Verde hurricane, but nonetheless, another Atlantic storm would be nice. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 18:45, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I would hate to see a Fiona 2.0 or even an epic fail. Hopefully this wave develops into a hurricane despite the lack of model support. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:50, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * 10/60. This looks likely to become Ian this weekend. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 14:55, September 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * 20/70, this is looking prime to become Ian, but it'll be following in Gaston's footsteps and out to sea the faster it develops. Ryan1000 19:25, September 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm glad it does appear to be a fishspinner. I just don't want anything devastating coming from future Ian. Hopefully we see a hurricane from the wave - it's got the potential I think. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:51, September 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/60, but still expected to develop sometime next week. If it stays weak as a wave like Hermine did, it may eventually make it to the northern Antilles or the gulf/eastern U.S. down the road. Ryan1000 00:16, September 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * I still see this potentially becoming Ian in the long run, but it might still take a while to develop. Hopefully it doesn't pull a Hermine and form after a really long wait.  If that happens it might be a threat to the Gulf region. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:25, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80. Here comes Ian! Nearly all models develop this storm now, but the intensity varies from hurricane strength on the GFS and CMC to a minimal tropical storm on the EURO. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 21:40, September 9, 2016 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
And now it's been invested. Up to 30/70. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * 70/90, this is probably becoming Ian in the next day or two. Ryan1000 23:42, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Ian is about to come. Thank god models are forecasting a hurricane and it doesn't appear to be any future land threat (so far...). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:24, September 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully, he doesn't continue the "'I' curse".  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 18:39, September 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * 80/90 and might be a TD tomorrow. This shouldn't continue the "I" curse - it will likely only go out to sea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:34, September 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/80 and now just has a small window for development. Upper-level winds will become less conducive for 94L in a couple days, so it might unfortunately only be a fail name-stealer. :( Hopefully if it does develop, it remains a TD. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:28, September 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 80/80. I hope this forms soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:43, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Sorry Steve but if the center becomes better defined we have Ian as it already have ts winds, something the NHC note.Allanjeffs 04:24, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Not a TD or TS right now, since 09:00 UTC has passed and NHC didn't issue an advisory. Apparently there are 2 centers, the dominant one at the north near the deep convection and the other at the south. But if Colin was considered tropical at that state, I don't see how this isn't. However, at this rate, this will be sheared to bits before it becomes anything. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:14, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ian
It's here, 35 kts/1007 mbar, but it's only forecast to peak at 50 kts before becoming extratropical in a few days. :/ Fingers crossed it defies the forecast and becomes a hurricane, the NHC forecast track is exactly the kind of trajectory (middle of nowhere and out to sea) we'd want a hurricane to take... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:21, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's facing 20 knots of (rising) shear, it's moving over cooler waters, and the circulation is exposed on the SW side of the thunderstorm activity. Hate to break it to you Dylan, but Ian is probably going to be a fail. If that happens, it would be the second year in a row in which the "I" name wasn't a hurricane. That hasn't been pulled off since 1988-89. Ryan1000 16:52, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah I'm not really holding my breath tbh. Post-2010 Atlantic has generally been rather impotent (bar occasional storms like Joaquin, Ophelia, Danny, Sandy and Gaston, as well as the inactive-but-high-quality 2014 season as a whole). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:45, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * And Irene. Also, it should be noted that the past two Atlantic hurricane seasons had their strongest storm in October, and the NW Caribbean is fairly warm compared to the rest of the Atlantic this year, so if a wave manages to make it there next month we could still have a bad storm in store for us. Ryan1000 18:10, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, overall the Atlantic hasn't been too notable since 2012, with the exception of a few storms. Ian likely won't do anything comparing to his two predecessors. So that's good, considering what Earl and Hermine have done.  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 21:03, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Ian isn't likely to become anything significant, I'm thinking this will probably peak 50-60 mph at most because of the shear. However, 95L could be a candidate for Julia. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:20, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * I expect Ian to live two more days, tops, before he gets ripped apart by the 50-60 knot shear to his north. Ryan1000 03:01, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Might strength to a 60 to 65mph storm because of an anticylcone moving closer to its center. Not expecting a hurricane and wind shear might kill it. Its up to 45mph winds, a fail but not a complete fail nonetheless still its nothing like its predecesors Ivan and Igor. Allanjeffs 04:23, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * The "I" curse has almost certainly been broken. Ian is unlikely to become a hurricane as the shear has completely exposed the circulation center, with the nearest convection more than 120 n mi away to the NE (per NHC discussion). ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:30, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * The shear is starting to destroy Ian and will demolish the TS in the future. I guess the newly used name can't be used for a hurricane this year. :( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:14, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * 50 kts, 998 mbar, but expected to become post-tropical. See you in 2022, Ian. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:51, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
Down and out. I admit Ian lasted longer than I expected it to, but it still didn't harm land. Ryan1000 17:06, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Near Leeward Islands
At 10/20 and conditions aren't expected to be favorable for much development. I'll be so surprised if it develops. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:25, September 9, 2016 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Surprisingly enough, this became invested before the system behind it. Still not expected to develop though. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yep, nothing coming here. Julia will have to come later assuming 94L is a future TC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:36, September 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still on the TWO at 10/10, but is heading for Florida and will probably dissipate there. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:16, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think everyone spoke too soon. According to the NHC, they are considering issuing advisories on a tropical cyclone later today, and it is pretty close to becoming one. Looks like it's making a last minute run to become Tropical Storm Julia. Owen 22:51, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/70. We could see TD 11 or TS Julia at 11PM EDT. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:52, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * We have Julia. I think. AL, 93, 2016091400,, BEST, 0, 299N, 815W, 35, 1010, TS 66.87.148.103 00:44, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yes it will be Julia, ATCF should be revisit as this was clearly a td since 2am and a ts since 2pm. It might be weak but some models are doing this make a loop and getting it out of Georgia to the Atlantic  Ocean.  Might strength a little bit if it happens. Allanjeffs 00:52, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julia
Advisories coming in this hour.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:14, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * 10-4-1. Owen 02:16, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * WHAT THE ACTUAL HECK?! I guess "Julia" has to be used for a weakling this year, except that it will bring a bunch of impacts to the southeast. The name would have been better suited for a strong and decent hurricane instead, IMO. I never expected this to form!!! :O ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:11, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wha....this thing actually formed while it was over Florida? I've never seen a TS do that before. Not unheard of but still extremely rare. Meh, either way, Julia won't be too bad, it'll bring some rain showers but likely nothing too serious. Ryan1000 03:37, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Julia
Really, are you serious???????????? It HAD to weaken as soon as it hit the ocean. It is now forecast to dissipate soon. Really, Julia, really?????????... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:32, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julia (2nd time)
Became a tropical storm again. BeamOfSunlight (talk) 21:49, September 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Meh, it's...stalling offshore now. Rip currents are still a threat though. Ryan1000 22:41, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Julia (2nd time)
Back down to a TD again. Could become post-tropical soon, as Julia has lost pretty much all her deep convection lately. Ryan1000 03:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Didn't really expect Julia to persist this long, but it's now currently weakening. I believe impacts it caused weren't too bad. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:41, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Winds are down to 25 kt; 1010 mbar. This storm should get some acknowledgement for being the first storm ever in the Atlantic to form over Florida, and the first to form over land since 1988. I think Julia might be able to become a tropical storm again. T  G  15:11, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Been a while, but I've watched Julia closely. What a strange storm! First it forms over land, and then completely confounds the NHC by not going even close to it's forecast track. New convection just covered up the center, and if it persists, it could allow Julia to survive longer and finally not be just a weak TS. As long as nobody's getting killed, I love storms that are unpredictable. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:38, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Julia is still hanging on, and has been kept at 30 mph/1010 mbar as of latest advisory. The NHC has noted that Julia is keeping enough shower activity to retain tropical depression status for now. I really like unpredictable storms too, since they are interesting and 'cause they could frustrate forecasters. :P I also liked how Julia became the first tropical cyclone on record to form over Florida. It is just unusual for TCs to form over land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:58, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Julia
It is FINALLY dead. It was seriously retaining TD status for SO LONG. Time to focus on Karl's threat to Bermuda... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:42, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * A bit surprised by this, as it happened when there was a possibility that Julia could restrengthen. It must have gotten bored. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 07:10, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested and on the TWO at 10/20, new wave southeast of Cape Verde looks interesting. Models take this on a more westward path than Ian, and EURO thinks this will develop into a hurricane. Will be interesting to see what comes from this invest. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:20, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS doesn't do much with this, though the Euro makes this a hurricane down the road, but like Gaston, turning north and out to sea. Both models also develop a tropical storm near Cape Verde behind this thing next week, and that would bring us to Karl if this becomes Julia. Ryan1000 02:47, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50% for 5 days, but like many a storm this season, it's expected to turn north of west down the road and eventually head out to sea. Ryan1000 12:16, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * As of the latest TWO, it's 40/60; future Karl may have to follow a similar path to storms such as Gaston in the future. I really hope this becomes a hurricane as long as it remains away from land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:17, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve
Here comes potential future Karl... forecast to briefly reach 35 kts before weakening back to a depression, and the NHC discussion notes the possibility of degeneration into a tropical wave. Forecast to re-strengthen a tiny bit near the end of the forecast period, but with the middle of the forecast period being so grim, I'm not holding my breath. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl-to-be actually might be a threat to the U.S. in the long run if it weakens or dies out temporarily, like how the wave that became Hermine took a while to form but it eventually hit Florida as a hurricane. But it all depends on how conditions near the Bahamas and Florida are by that time. Still way too early to tell if this will be a fish. Ryan1000 19:27, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is still not named. I have a an if-then conditional statement about TD#12: If this storm doesn't get named now, then it will stay unnamed until this coming Monday. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:36, September 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * According to ATCF, we have Karl. AL, 12, 2016091600,, BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 140, 80, 0, 80, 1011, 160, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, In fact, we could have had Karl at the 5pm advisory, as the RBT was retroactively updated to make this a 35-kt TS at 18z. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:04, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Karl
And we have Karl. As of the latest advisory, 40 kts and 1005 millibars. NHC sees Karl to remain a tropical storm until Tuesday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:47, September 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS and Euro eventually take this to Bermuda in the long run, the latter of which makes Karl a cat 4 by then, though the system behind Karl (possibly Lisa) they don't do much at all with. Ryan1000 11:02, September 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC's taking Karl to hurricane strength by the end of the forecast with Bermuda being threatened over the long run. I hope it becomes something strong as long as it steers clear of Bermuda or any other landmass. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:43, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Models, including the GFS and ECMWF, continue to show a hurricane-force system over Bermuda next week. According to the NHC, dry air isn't expected to be much of a problem now. Bermuda should start getting prepared for some impact. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:30, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl is struggling for now, but soon we could se a nice hurricane. Bermuda should be prepared for impacts after Gonzalo, but hopefully it misses Bermuda if it chooses to become a strong hurricane. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:41, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The GFS takes Karl just north of the small island as a cat 1 storm in 216 hours, but the latest run of the Euro takes Karl just south of Bermuda as a 923 mbar category 5 monster by that time. If Karl takes the average of the two models it could be a fairly powerful hurricane when it comes within range of the island a week from now or so. However, Bermuda is probably the only land that could be hit by Karl down the road. It probably won't hit anywhere else; none of the models even remotely make Karl a danger to the Lesser Antilles, and we have another trough to protect the U.S. East Coast from a landfall, just like we did with Gaston. That just leaves the question of whether Karl will eventually be a re-Fabian, hopefully its not. Ryan1000 21:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The Euro run you mention just scares me. :O This could end up as one of the most destructive TC's in Bermudian history if that occurred. Hopefully, Karl strengthens a lot BUT  weakens significantly upon reaching Bermuda. The name "Karl" just sounds like a strong name to me and a strong storm would be amazing, as long as Bermuda is spared... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:02, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC noted in their latest forecast discussion that the ridge of high pressure north of Karl may strengthen when Karl encounters favorable enough conditions to become a hurricane, and they've taken the forecast track a little bit further west with that, but it's still more likely than not that Karl will turn north and then east before hitting the U.S. Also, if it does head farther west late in the forecast period, that means that Karl may also miss Bermuda on its way out to sea, which would be a best-case scenario regarding impacts. Ryan1000 01:41, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The GFS has been making Karl an extremely powerful hurricane near Bermuda from 219-288 hours out. I hope people in Bermuda stay safe next week! T  G  20:00, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Karl is still a weak tropical storm - at 40 mph and 1006 mbars as of the most recent advisory. This is not good... if that panned out Bermuda might get one of their most destructive storms on record. I REALLY hope Bermuda residents are preparing for the hurricane. Karl, leave the island alone! I hope it tracks west of Bermuda, or they are in danger... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:47, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * The global models have lately been taking Karl farther west but then passing due east and thus south of Bermuda. That could be good news, but a lot of things could change, and Karl has really been struggling with its intensity over the past few days due to a somewhat stable atmosphere surrounding it and an upper level low shearing off some of its convection. This could change after 3 days, and NHC expects Karl to become a 100 mph category 2 storm at the end of the forecast period, but even that might be conservative given the very favorable environment of that area. Ryan1000 11:00, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Karl's strength is still the same as my previous post. This is struggling to intensify, probably due to unfavorable conditions. Bermuda should still prepare themselves regardless. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:49, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

I don't want to fully let my guard down yet, but thankfully the NHC track has been recurving Karl before it reaches Bermuda over the past few advisories, so maybe Karl won't be as bad as it was earlier anticipated, though the 18Z GFS run still takes Karl fairly close to the island as a hurricane and it's not out of the question they could be hit. It all depends on how fast and when Karl decides to become a hurricane. The sooner, the stronger it'll be, but also the more likely it'll recurve before hitting Bermuda. Ryan1000 02:36, September 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl is still struggling with shear, and has weakened from 40 knots back to 35 knots. This may not be good, as being weaker, it could take a more westerly track and recurve late. In that case, Bermuda would be more likely to be hit. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:11, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Karl
Down to 30 kt. NHC has no idea whether a closed circulation exists or not. Said they won't be surprised if Karl has dissipated.--182.58.125.235 09:48, September 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl has been struggling with unfavorable conditions a lot more than I thought it would at this point, if Karl dies or remains this weak, it might avoid the trough to its north and continue to head due west towards Florida and the Bahamas instead of recurve north and out to sea. Ryan1000 11:18, September 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Woah, this is struggling more than I expected. It might not go as far west as Ryan's scenario (IMO) so Bermuda may still need to watch out. It might only go that far west if Karl became a remnant low. Remaining weak would put the island more at risk unless it is weak for even longer, when it could pass to the west of the island and go a little closer to the USA. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:23, September 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * It looks like the ridge of high pressure is still pulling Karl north despite its weakened intensity, but it's still expected to recurve before reaching Bermuda, not even as a cat 1 by then. Dr. Masters says Karl is one of only two Atlantic storms (the other being Dennis '81) to remain 45 mph or weaker for the first 5 days of its lifetime. Ryan1000 12:03, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Karl (2nd time)
Back up to a 35 kt/1005 mbar TS! Now let's see if Karl can finally strengthen beyond 40 kts after more than 8 days of existence :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:53, September 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * There we go, 50 kts/990 mbar, decent strength at last. Hopefully Karl can get to at least Cat 2 intensity, as long as it doesn't do so at Bermuda's expense. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:04, September 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * Finally, at last! Karl has took so long to get stronger, but it has finally done so - 65 mph/990 mbar. The storm has fought on and is now doing one last stunt. Bermuda is still going to get tropical storm impacts before Karl very likely strengthens to a hurricane before going extratropical. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:43, September 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think it's likely with comparing the strength of the two, the effects of Karl on Bermuda may be comparable to something like Fay of 2014. It looks like Karl is getting his act together and I expect a hurricane later tonight or tomorrow. Owen 02:17, September 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * Jesus. Karl is still at 55 kts and has even lost some organization recently, according to NHC. At this point Karl might not even reach hurricane strength until it loses tropical characteristics. If we don't get a Hurricane Karl out of this, I will officially write Karl off as the laziest storm of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:11, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, Karl did not become a hurricane (at least operationally). NHC now expects Karl to become a strong post-tropical system on Sunday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:19, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

Well Dylan, there was a lot of unabating shear over Karl so it doesn't surprise me that it didn't become as strong as it could've been, but you do make a point on your last statement; if this Karl doesn't become a hurricane while heading out to sea, it'll be the first storm named Karl to not do so. Ryan1000 06:56, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
And it will be the first Karl not to do so.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  15:46, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Karl was a 70 mph fail, the first since Beryl in 2012. Maybe it will somehow get upgraded to a hurricane in post-analysis, but Karl was such a disappointing storm. Maybe Matthew will be make up for it. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 20:36, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am really hating the fact that Karl never became a hurricane. It was forecast to do so earlier, but I guess it did not want to even try. The storm was a prodigious disappointment - seriously, why wouldn't you even try?! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:39, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Behind TD 12
This is behind TD 12, and could become something right near Africa before conditions become unfavorable later on. Ryan1000 22:44, September 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now at 30/50 currently and will be nothing more than a weakling if it develops. I wouldn't like to see the name "Lisa" being stolen by a weakling, so it would be best for this to peak at a TD at most or even try to surprise everyone by becoming a hurricane (extremely doubtful though). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:46, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
30/60. Models show at most a weak tropical storm being absorbed by Karl. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:27, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40/70. I definitely think we can get Lisa out of this one. T  G  15:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The AOI text no longer mentions any unfavorable conditions - but we still shouldn't rule those conditions out in the long run. If it is Lisa, I do not want to see a weak fail. If it does end up entering unfavorable conditions, a TD is enough for me. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:06, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The invest is now up to 50/80. But, bad news - the NHC is again mentioning unfavorable conditions. This might only be a weak failure. >:( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:50, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * 70/80. Hopefully this remains a TD and doesn't become a name-stealer, since conditions are going to become unfavourable tomorrow. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:14, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * We have td 13 and its expect to be a 60mph storm so not a complete failure. I am expecting a peak of 65mph because of its large size, Anyways It looks poised to become Lisa. We will see though if it can strength further if it can reduce its size.Allanjeffs 21:31, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
Now upgraded according to Allanjeffs' post and the NHC. Depression Thirteen is expected to become Lisa, and I hope it does not end up stealing a name. It might reach more than 60 mph if we get some luck. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:54, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Even if it becomes named, it'll likely die before hitting any land areas, discounting Cabo Verde. The last time Lisa was used in 2010, it formed in a similar area to this one and it became a hurricane despite being forecast not to do so, hopefully Lisa-to-be can pull that off this time around too. Ryan1000 02:40, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lisa
Now named. Strength as of 11:00 AM (AST): 40 mph; 1007 mbar. T G  17:25, September 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Went up to 45/1004 with the latest advisory (a little late though). Ryan1000 22:09, September 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Peaked at 45 kts/1002 mbar earlier but has since gone back down to 40/1004. Pending whatever happens to this and Karl, only five of this season's twelve storms so far have strengthened beyond 45 kts, one of which only just barely did so. That's pathetic! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:58, September 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, at least it's not 2013, that year was so awful regarding storm intensity, it was painful to track the storms that year. And even if Lisa and/or Karl don't become hurricanes, there's still October, and some of the models have been forecasting something nasty to pop up near the start of October. The last few runs of the GFS in particular are making something big in the Caribbean around 200 hours, we should still keep our eyes out for a potentially destructive late-season hurricane. Ryan1000 01:53, September 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * This season seems like kind of a mix between 2013 and 2007, because both had too much weak storms, but 2007 had a couple powerful ones. The strongest storm (Gaston) is in between Humberto (2013) and Dean/Felix (2007)'s intensity, so it's kinda between both seasons, if you know what I mean. 2016 seems pretty pathetic so far, but we cannot rule out an October major in the Caribbean. Back to Lisa, it remains pretty weak and should be weaker than its 2010 incarnation. Karl should eventually become a hurricane, but you'll never know until it either does or doesn't become one. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:31, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lisa
As Karl rises to power, Lisa slides into oblivion. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:41, September 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * I am despising the fact that we have had yet another weak storm - and increasing its fail status even more, it was out to sea and didn't do anything special (unlike Julia). What an epic disgrace to tropical cyclones you are, Lisa! This pathetic system didn't even try, possibly except for strengthening to 50 mph and not peaking at the even more pathetic 40 or 45 mph. Bye, fail! ;) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:48, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * Sigh, this is the ultimate fishspinner of the season (so far). What a flop, to be honest. Anyway, Lisa is expected to become a remnant low tonight. See you in 2022. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:22, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * She is done. See you in 2022. Not a complete waste as she restrengthen to a tropical storm, the third to do it this season but a fail nonetheless. Allanjeffs 03:12, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Lisa
Per Allan.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  05:14, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * Popped up on the TWO due to a convective burst producing gale-force winds. At 0/0, and will probably be truly dead soon. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:27, September 26, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Eastern Atlantic
On the TWO at 0/20 in the eastern Atlantic. Could develop into Matthew next week near the Lesser Antilles. This AOI has potential, as both GFS and EURO show it as a hurricane in the Caribbean in the long range. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 19:58, September 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * I have a very bad feeling about this storm. I just feel something inside me saying that this is gonna be a bad storm in the future. T  G  22:28, September 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with you here TG, this is the wave the GFS has been developing around the start of October in the Caribbean, and they make it something big by that time. The question is where it'll go after that, the last few runs have taken this anywhere from the western Caribbean turning into Central America, north towards the GOM and the US, or even north to Hispaniola, PR, Cuba, and eventually Bermuda. Either way this could definitely be the first seriously major storm of the season. It definitely bears watching down the road. Ryan1000 05:04, September 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * This storm is creeping me. Most models are agreeing in an Ivan kind of track at first in EastCarib. Where it goes later is the issue as the coming of the trough will be critical.. Wether it comes fast or takes its times will determine were it goes. The gfs is showing a cat 5 landfall in Texas/Louisiana. I know its 10 days but now all 4 major models are onboard with this system. This system use the rocket fuel in the Wcarib that was left untouch by the other systems.  This might be the major we were hoping and dreading. I hope I am wrong though because for sure models are not showing a fish with this one. From Canada to Nicaragua, to Venezuela need to start checking this AOI. Allanjeffs 05:38, September 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's very unusual to see an Atlantic storm take an Ivan-like track west-northwest through the Caribbean in late September or October in the season (one such example being Inez of 1966), I fear this may not develop until it reaches the western Caribbean, which scares me the most since, as you mentioned Allan, the western Caribbean has the warmest waters anywhere in the Atlantic right now, and it's just waiting for a storm to move over there and explode. I don't have a good feeling about what could happen there in October, if it's not from this system there could be one at any time later in October or even November. Ryan1000 12:14, September 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * This storm is looking creepy in the long run. Models like the GFS are taking this one into the Caribbean as a strengthening cyclone. I don't have a good feeling about to-be Matthew; the waters in the western Caribbean are the scariest part and this storm could easily enter there and explode into a catastrophic monster. This is one we really have to watch for. It's still at 0/20, BTW. From now until November, we will really have to watch the western Caribbean for any potential monsters that could easily explode in the warm water haven. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  01:43, September 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * If the conditions are right, I think that it's very likely that according to models like the GFS, we could have our first Category 5 in the basin since 2007 with this system. Who knows what the waters in the western Caribbean could support, probably could support another Wilma. It may be a major threat to the United States down the road, this could be the October surprise for this season. I know this may be unrelated but it's worth noting if it's bad enough in the United States like the GFS is depicting, future Matthew could sway the elections here too, considering how bad Sandy was in 2012 (the last presidential election), which was considered the October surprise that season and was seen as swaying the election. Regardless, this is something to monitor. Owen 02:12, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS is flopping around with this system. Two days ago it showed a landfall on the US East Coast, yesterday it showed landfall in Texas, and now it shows a landfall near Florida's Big Bend area. The only consistent thing is that it makes this a Category 5 hurricane at landfall. On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a rapidly intensifying hurricane in 240 hours. This is likely to be our first Category 5 since 2007, unless ERCs mess around with it. Anyway, it's now up to 0/30. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:08, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 10/50. T  G  14:45, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * According to some pictures i've seen recently from goes, the wind shear in this basin has been unparalleled recently. There's even wind shear in the west Caribbean. If future-Matthew wants to reach major hurricane status, the wind shear over there needs to calm down. Otherwise, this storm could be a category 1 at the strongest... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 17:15, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * Shear will be almost non existant when it reach the Caribbean. Those shear maps are not always trustworthy, they were showing low shear for Karl and look how it pan out. Models are unanimous in showing a major in the Caribbean. Track is now changing from Honduras/Nicaragua to Jamaica and Cayman Islands. The stronger it get and the faster it develops the more north it will move. Even Eric Blake is becoming interested in this system base on twitter comments. This could be the major many were expecting ,its track resembles Ivan during the first part. Where it goes after Caymans Islands is the uncertainty. It also have a combination of Felix in the first part and Dean in the second. Interesting two weeks ahead.Allanjeffs 20:37, September 24, 2016 (UTC)

Now 10/70. I'm starting to have a bad feeling on this system. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:16, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Based on this, not only will this be the first Category 5 since 2007, the pressure could be 898 mbar. If that verifies, which would be pretty scary, it would be the strongest in the basin since Wilma in 2005. We have to see what happens though, I do think that if the conditions are right we have a chance to see a Category 5. However, future Matthew has to deal with trying to move a bit more north before crashing into South America which would probably rule out development altogether. Owen 05:05, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Had some stuff to do lately, but anyways this is now invest'd and is up to 80% for 5 days. Both the GFS and Euro make this a formidable major hurricane in the western Caribbean, but the track over the past few runs has been shifting anywhere from Jamaica and the Caymans to the western tip of Cuba, and a gulf coast landfall anywhere from Galveston to Tampa, all while a formidable storm. Matthew-to be is looking to be a very dangerous, Ivan-like storm for the Caribbean and the U.S. and it bears serious attention. If the current or past few runs of the GFS are correct, we won't be going another year without a U.S. landfalling major hurricane. Ryan1000 06:56, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * The current GFS run takes future Matthew to landfall on Jamaica, Cuba and Florida all as a major hurricane, before raking the East Coast like Hermine. Whereas the ECMWF takes this into South America, then recurves it northward to slam the Dominican Republic and Haiti before moving out to sea. Apparently future Matthew is still having trouble deciding where to go, but it's probably set on becoming a major. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:55, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * According to the latest gfs, Matthew os predicted to peak as a 115 mph category 3 before rapidly weakening into a category 1 before hitting Cuba. After this, it hits Florida as either a weak category 1 or a strong tropical storm. If this kind of a trend continues, then Matthew might not reach major hurricane intensity at all... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:58, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * I don't know what you are seeing, but that is definitely not true. All we know is that the conditions are very good for a C5 hurricane. By the time Matthew hits the Carribean, it will hit very warm waters and extremely low wind shear. It is looking likely that we'll see our first C5 in nine years. The GFS has been showing a major hurricane landfall in the United States in all of the runs, minus two of them that showed a major hurricane hitting Mexico. T  G  16:38, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 30/90 now. Here comes Matthew, and this could very well end up being the storm of the year. It will be interesting to see whether Matthew-to-be recurves out to sea or continues into the northwest Caribbean. In order for Matthew to become a category 5, it will likely have to reach the western Caribbean. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 17:36, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Cat 5 is probably too far up, but cat 3-4 is almost a certainty when it reaches the western Caribbean. The latest run of the GFS and Euro takes the trough coming towards the east coast far enough south to pull Matthew-to be north into Hispaniola before it reaches Cuba and Florida and out to sea, but unless Matthew-to be intensifies fairly fast while it's in the eastern or central Caribbean, the trough probably won't be able to get a grip on the storm and pull it north, it'll likely be pulled farther north when it eventually intensifies rapidly in the northwestern Caribbean. Ryan1000 18:07, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am giving this thing at least a 25% chance of becoming a C5 during its lifetime. The western Caribbean contains a haven of favorable conditions that could easily allow rapid and dangerous strengthening. The track seems a little unpredictable in the long run however, so it might even not become our first Cat. 5 in nine years if it meanders out to sea or do something else. Everywhere from Mexico, to the Gulf Coast, and the East Coast seems to be in 97L's threat zone. The invest scares me. Future Matthew could be a devastating storm in the long run. I hope that isn't the case. :( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:47, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * The last few runs of the global models are really persistent on that trough pulling Matthew-to be north and into Hispaniola as a major hurricane when it reaches the central Caribbean. While that would be good news for the U.S, a major hurricane hitting Haiti (GFS) or the DR (Euro) would still be very bad, especially in loss of life. Ryan1000 03:28, September 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * Currently at 60/90, and could be a TS by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Current ECMWF run shows something interesting as it recurves future Matthew between Haiti and Cuba, before shunting it west-northwestwards towards Florida. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:31, September 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is now at 80/90, and recon is scheduled to investigate this thing tomorrow. Wouldn't surprise me if it becomes Matthew by then. Ryan1000 03:03, September 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * 90/90, and the NHC has noted potential for this to immediately become Matthew. More info will be available when recon arrives in the afternoon (going by EDT). ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:06, September 27, 2016 (UTC)

GFS's latest run gives 97L a Sandy-like track, with Haiti and Cuba landfalls.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:50, September 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * The Euro, on the other hand, takes this into Jamaica, then Cuba, then into Miami as a 938 mbar category 4 storm. Neither scenario is good in the long term. Recon failed to find a closed LLC last afternoon, so it's not Matthew yet, but I'm fairly certain it will be tomorrow. Ryan1000 03:16, September 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Already have winds at 60mph but still no closed low. It might become a 65 to 70mph before it develop an closed low level center. Even Dr. Masters says this is impressive. Someone is probably going to be hit hard by this and I hope they are prepare, as all models are unanimous in showing doom solution for someone. Allanjeff 14:22, September 28, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Matthew
"NHC will be initiating advisories on Tropical Storm Matthew, currently moving through the Windward Islands, at 11 AM EDT." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:50, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * First forecast/advisory is out. 1008 mbar, winds already at 50 kts immediately upon formation, Tropical Storm Warning in effect from Guadeloupe southward to the Grenadines, forecast to reach 90 kts just southeast of Jamaica by the end of the forecast period. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:57, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Apparently has already dissipated according to ATCF????? AL, 14, 2016092818,, BEST, 0, 137N, 613W, 50, 1008, DB, 50, NEQ, 100, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 80, 60, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MATTHEW, M, 12, NEQ, 180, 90, 0, 0, genesis-num, 024, DISSIPATED, al142016 to al972016, TRANSITIONED, alC72016 to al142016, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:16, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * ATCF still has Matthew as a disturbance for 18Z, but the NHC maintained advisories and stated in the latest discussion that Matthew's circulation has become better defined. I'm gonna assume that the "DB" was an accident and should be a "TS" instead. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:53, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah...this isn't dissipating anytime soon. It has some shear to deal with, but it's a big TS (205 miles of TS force winds, albeit displaced a bit to the NE) and can survive the shear for now. NHC expects the turn north in the central/western Caribbean to happen, but not until it passes west of Hispaniola into Jamaica and/or Cuba as a category 2 storm by then. But the track after that becomes a bit confusing. One possibility is the trough recurving him north outruns him and a ridge builds in and forces him west into Florida and/or the GoM, similar to Jeanne and as indicated by the Euro, but it could also turn north and hit the eastern seaboard anywhere from the Carolinas to New England like Hazel or Sandy. Best case scenario, Matthew could recurve out to sea before hitting the U.S. at all, but unfortunately that's not looking likely as of now. This will probably become something notable in the long run. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 22:06, September 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * I don't know why, but I have a very bad feeling about this storm. Maybe due to the fact that after Matthew was snubbed in 2010 (as were other names: *ahem*Agatha*ahem*) and partly due to what the name it replaced did, it started seeming like the name 'Matthew' would be used for a powerful storm. I sure hope this isn't true, but at this point, it's almost definite that it will be a hurricane by the end of the week.  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 23:02, September 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Also, this is the lowest-latitude named storm in 6 years in the Atlantic, according to The Weather Channel. Pretty interesting fact. Wasn't Igor the last one to be named this low, or am I wrong? Leeboy100 Hello! 23:07, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think that would be Tomas, which became a TS at 9.8N. Checking other low-latitude storms over the past few years and seeing how they compare to Matthew's 13.4N. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:39, September 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * A list of storms between Tomas and Matthew that formed south of 13.4N:
 * Katia '11, 11.0N
 * Maria '11, 11.9N
 * Ophelia '11, 12.5N
 * Philippe '11, 11.1N
 * Ernesto '12, 13.0N
 * Sandy '12, 12.7N
 * Chantal '13, 9.3N (lower than Tomas!)
 * Humberto '13, 13.3N
 * Bertha '14, 12.2N
 * Danny '15, 10.5N
 * Fred '15, 12.2N
 * Grace '15, 12.3N
 * Gaston '16 (!!), 12.6N
 * TWC must have forgotten to fact-check. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:02, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Perhaps they meant the first to form this far south this late in the season, but I don't know what "so late" would be, and even then, Sandy formed further south later in the season only 4 years ago. Regardless, the latest advisory buffs Matthew slightly to 65 mph/1004 mbars, though the forecast track hasn't changed much. Ryan1000 00:37, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 60 kts/995 mbar per the new intermediate advisory. TS Warnings lifted for the Windwards, TS Watch in effect for the ABC Islands. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:18, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Pressure up by one millibar but winds remain the same. Expected to become a hurricane in a few hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:19, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Recon found hurricane-force winds in Matthew by this advisory but they were too isolated and Matthew is under shear right now, which is why it was spared the upgrade for the time being. But not for long. According to Dr. Masters latest blog post, if Matthew takes as much advantage as it can over the Gulf of Gonave and the waters near the Bahamas, it could become a category 5 hurricane when it nears there, if not a weaker major hurricane, but the folks in Jamaica and southeastern Cuba should prepare for a storm stronger than a cat 2 since that's a very distinct possibility. Ryan1000 17:34, September 29, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Matthew
And it's here. 75 mph/993 mbars. Ryan1000 17:43, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * I love how the COC briefly popped out from under the convection, only for the convection to promptly swallow it back up, as if to say "OH NO YOU DON'T, GET BACK HERE!" --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:59, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * The Euro and GFS greatly differ on the track of Matthew after it passes north around the edge of that ridge, the Euro model members expect Matthew to curve west towards Florida or elsewhere along the east coast, and thus more likely to make landfall somewhere in the U.S, but the GFS is consistent on Matthew riding that trough north and either into or just offshore the east coast of the U.S. Regardless if the U.S. gets or doesn't get off from a direct hit from this, a large category 2 or stronger passing through Cuba, Jamaica, and brushing Haiti is gonna be big in terms of flooding and mudslides. Ryan1000 22:32, September 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * New advisory out, winds remain 75, but pressure is down to 987. And I knew I shouldn't have listened to TWC for low-latitude storms. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:58, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC still doesn't forecast a major from Matthew. But Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti really need to watch out, especially Haiti where there is great potential for extensive loss of life. Matthew seems to be taking a somewhat similar track to Tomas (2010). Unlike Tomas though, this one is stronger at this point in the Caribbean (Tomas was being shattered by wind shear in the central Caribbean), and it is a large threat to the US East Coast in the very long run. Matthew has potential to be a monster in terms of eventual devastation and deaths caused. Everyone in his path need to watch out. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  01:16, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Guys idk if it's just me but I have a weird feeling about this one. I see Matthew becoming something very notable, and it's so unpredictable how strong he can get because of the warm Caribbean waters. I'm not ruling out a Category 5. It looks like he's working out on clearing out an eye. Once that happens, anything can happen imo... Owen 04:25, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is exploding right now. Its now a cat 2 with 100mph and is expected to intensify further. RI have commence people in Jamaica, Cuba and Hispañola need to prepare as this is continues to intensify. I knew my gut feeling was right with Matthew. Since the gfs was bombing this in the Ecaribbean but everyone thought it was exaggerating as the Ecarib is consider the graveyard of the Carib . If this doesnt weaken in the upcoming days we might say bye bye to Matthew. Allanjeff 05:36, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * I knew it! I had a feeling he would RI. I forsee a Category 4/5 from Matthew. Just my gut feeling. This is not good. Owen 05:59, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh no, RI, this is not good for the Caribbean islands. Leeboy100 Hello! 09:04, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * I guess Matthew decided not to be a wimp this year and bomb in the central and west Caribbean. It was just a tropical storm in 2004 and in 2010, but that didn't happen this time. This is bad news. Seriously bad news. I didn't expect to get out of bed at 5:00 in the morning, go to the NHC website, and see a 100 mph, 979 mbar category 2! What the heck just happened, I went to bed to a 75 mph, 987 mbar C1! \(0_o)/ The NHC expects a C3/C4 from this now. If this happens, this may very well be one of the worst Caribbean hurricanes ever. I wish Jamacia, Cuba, and the Bahamas luck these next few days, as they will be bad ones... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:56, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Typically storms entrain dry air from South America in the eastern Caribbean, but that hasn't happened with Matthew, and the waters in and around Jamaica and southern Cuba are extremely warm and conducive for RI. Like Dr. Masters mentioned in his blog post, if Matthew reaches its MPI (maximum possible intensity) it could hit 175-190 miles per hour at it's peak in the NW Caribbean or Bahamas, although that's hard to achieve. Patricia did this in the record-favorable conditions south of Mexico last year, though it was fortunately a very tightly compact storm with a very small area of intense eyewall winds. Hurricane-force winds already go 45 miles out from the center of Matthew and TS winds go 185 miles out; Patricia's strongest winds only went out half that far. it wouldn't surprise me if Matthew is a major hurricane later today, and it could possibly become a cat 4 or 5 before it rakes past eastern Jamaica and Cuba. At the rate Matthew is going, he won't be back in 2022. Ryan1000 11:05, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * 90 knots now, and the pressure has dropped to 971 mb. Matthew should be a major by the end of today, and could even become a C4. Unless Matthew weakens due to shear, upwelling or ERCs, we could see catastrophic damage in Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti. Also, one fatality has already occurred in the Windward Islands. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:31, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Recon found 99 kt / ~114 mph surface winds. Category 3 now? 66.87.148.190 13:47, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * So far, NHC sees Matthew to peak at 105 kts, though that's likely a conservative estimate. Either this pulls a Sandy '12 or a Hazel '54. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:12, September 30, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Matthew
100 kts, 968 mbar and showing every other post-Sandy Caribbean storm how it's done... unfortunately. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:51, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC expects this storm to remain at 100 kts until Monday. Personally though, I think Matthew might strengthen to a high-end Category 3 or even as a Category 4, which would displace Gaston as this season's strongest (so far). Jamaica is in great danger from this storm, though the track keeps Matthew's eye off Jamaica's east coast, its eyewall is highly likely to hit the island nation. Eastern Cuba and central Bahamas are also in great threat. For now, the U.S. East Coast is unlikely to be directly affected by Matthew, though a lot can happen in 5 days.Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:31, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might even overtake Sandy in terms of intensity, it's got 29 milibars to go to beat her, and it may even go on to become a cat 4 or 5 before passing through Jamaica and Cuba. If the trough doesn't have as strong of a steering effect on Matthew and it turns north, then the U.S. east coast could still be hit by Matthew, or maybe Bermuda on its way out to sea. Either way, some of the greater antilles are in for a big storm over the next few days. There's still a lot of uncertainty after that. Ryan1000 15:41, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * For what it's worth, Matthew has 15 mbar to go to beat Sandy in the Caribbean, where the latter's minimum pressure was 954 mbar; Sandy didn't reach 940 mbar until the day it bore down on New Jersey. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:54, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Base on Recon Matthew is a medium cat 3 and continues to strength. He might easily become a cat 4 in the next couple of hours before weakening a little by dry air from SA. Cuba, Jamaica, Bahamas, Haiti and even the Usa and the Caymans need to watch out as this is easily becoming a monster. The gfs have been doing perfectly in intensity and the Euro in track. This could easily be retired if it affected the greater antilles at peak intensity or close to, there its already one dead I believe in St Lucia or St Kitts.Allanjeff 17:38, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Make that 7 millibars -- the new advisory pins Matthew at 120 mph and 960 mbars, surpassing Sandy and tying (though still 4 mbars short of) Gaston in winds, and they could easily keep rising as Matthew gradually curves towards the upper greater antilles. Allan, the 1 death was actually from a boulder fall on the island of St. Vincent, not St. Lucia or St. Kitts, but regardless, that's a mere footnote compared to what Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola are going to feel from this in a few days. Ryan1000 19:18, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Recon just measured 120 kt winds (~140 mph) as far as I know. I know a bad hurricane when I see one. Matthew might become a Category 5 soon if this trend continues. Take a look here for the data I'm finding. This is reminding me a lot about Patricia for some reason.  Owen 20:11, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Category 4 now, 120 kts/949 mbar per the new advisory. Displaces Sandy as the strongest Caribbean hurricane since... Paloma, I think? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:56, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Indeed Dylan, though given Matthew's current sattelite presentation and the ever more favorable conditions it's moving over, it wouldn't surprise me if it overtakes Paloma and becomes the strongest and first cat 5 in the Caribbean since 2007. Owen, I don't think Matthew will go up to Patricia's intensity. Patricia literally could not have had a more perfect environment for explosive intensification, or a more perfect pinhole eye under intensely cold cloud tops and CDO. Matthew could easily become a cat 5, but the peak shouldn't be as strong as Patricia's. Maybe Dean's, but not Patricia's, we'd be lucky to see a hurricane get as strong as Patricia anytime soon, in either the ATL or the EPac. But still, I didn't expect Matthew to be this strong at this point, a 19 mbar pressure drop in only 6 hours is amazing, this is looking to be a very, very bad storm for the greater Antilles. Ryan1000 21:03, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh my god, we have a category 4. I am getting seriously scared now, as this can very well reach cat. 5 status if it keeps intensifying like this. Leeboy100 Hello! 20:58, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is seriously impressing me, though. This time yesterday, it had just been upgraded to a hurricane, and look at it now. Oh, and I think you're right, Dylan. Pretty sure it was Paloma.  Leeboy100 Hello! 21:05, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is on the verge of becoming the first category 5 in the Atlantic since Felix of 2007. Ironically this is the same place where Felix explode. He might weaken some tomorrow but Jamaica should be preparing for a moustruos storm. I am really worried of them, hope they prepared as this is not pretty. Btw the death doll of Matthew has increase to 2 as a man drown in Colombia. Allanjeff 22:39, September 30, 2016 (UTC)

Matthew looks like he could be a category 5 in the 8pm update:

225830 1331N 07157W 6994 02756 9626 +098 //// 025114 124 132 069 01 225900 1328N 07157W 6965 02763 9605 +102 //// 006118 126 133 066 05

132-133kt surface winds - the 132kt reading wasn't flagged. 66.87.148.187 23:17, September 30, 2016 (UTC)

Now 150 mph. Very close to category 5 status. Leeboy100 Hello! 23:45, September 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * It may undergo an ERC before it manages to reach cat 5 strength tonight. But it's nonetheless an extremely violent hurricane and will very likely be immensely powerful when it passes through Jamaica and Cuba early next week, especially since conditions near those two islands are even more favorable than they are now. Ryan1000 23:48, September 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm seeing reports on Weather Underground of SFMR winds in the 138-143 kt range. If those reported SFMR observations verify, then not only is this the first Atlantic Category 5 since Felix right now, but it has broken Ivan's record as the southernmost Category 5 in the basin (approximately 13.5N, compared to Ivan's 13.7N). What a way for the Caribbean to return to form! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:29, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * My god, Matthew looks to be a Category 5 now. However, the pressure does seem unusually high for one but...the streak is over everyone. 9. Years. Owen 00:38, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Let's not get ahead of ourselves, we still need to wait for the NHC to make it official, but those SFMR obs are pointing towards an upgrade at 11pm. We'll see if the NHC has anything to say about them. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:42, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * 0z ATCF revised to 135 kts/943 mbar, slightly stronger than the 130/945 that was used for the intermediate advisory. That's a hair away from Category 5, folks. Pressure is a bit high for such intense winds, but it's still unreal to watch such a powerful hurricane come to fruition. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:46, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * To make matters worse, after Matthew hits Jamaica and Cuba, it could take a turn for the worst and go northwest for the U.S. east coast. The 12z run of the Euro takes Matthew back west after it passes Cuba and moves into the southern Bahamas, in a direction aimed at south Florida, but more importantly the 18z GFS run takes Matthew paralleling the east coast until it hits the Rhode Island/Massachusetts border as a massive 961 mbar category 3 hurricane. They haven't seen a storm that powerful in decades, let alone a category 2 in 25 years, since Bob in August 1991. That's not good, and if Matthew expands over the southeastern Atlantic like Sandy did in late October 2012, it's only going to get worse regarding storm surge and how widespread it could be. Ryan1000 00:58, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew is looking very well like it is a category 5 at this very moment, and we need to see if the NHC makes it official. We'll know in about an hour. Leeboy100 Hello! 01:48, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * The suspense is building as the NHC is set to release their advisory in the next 10 minutes... ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:53, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Category 5 Matthew is here. Owen 02:59, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * IT'S NOW A CAT 5! Leeboy100 Hello! 03:02, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Matthew
And he is here. 140 kt, 941 mb. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:59, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Owen, you nailed it. With winds of 160 miles per hour and a 941 mbar pressure with the new advisory, we now have the first category 5 hurricane to cross the Atlantic in 9 years, since Felix of 2007. Ryan1000 03:00, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Pretty high pressure for a Cat 5.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:01, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic category 5 drought is over after 9 years. Wow. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 03:05, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * First C5 since 2007, oh my!! It was only a Category 1 yesterday! I have no words... wut. Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti better be preparing for this MONSTER! (And the east coast in the long run) :O ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:05, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * After 9 long years, we have a category 5 in the Atlantic. This is unbelievable, this time yesterday, it was only a category 1. Holy s**t. Leeboy100 Hello! 03:18, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Had been so long since I track one in the Atlantic. This is my fourth after Wilma, Dean and Felix. Everyone in his path will be in my prayers. I just need to say this is the weakest cat 5 in terms of pressure but we got one finally, Would have prefer out to sea but nature have decided against. Will probably weaken tomorrow by EWRC but should re strengthen before hitting Jamaica. Allanjeff 03:22, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * I have NEVER tracked an Atlantic C5 before! :O And I've been tracking hurricanes since 2010! (I have heard of storms such as Katrina on the news when I was little though) This is unbelievable...pls tell me I'm not dreaming. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:25, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * And now it's a C5 it needs to go and threaten land. Seriously... ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:32, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Atlantic C5 fishspinners are insanely rare. 'Tis the story of the Atlantic C5s... -_- ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:34, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * As I said once before, there actually has never been a fishspinning Atlantic cat 5 before. Because hurricanes Dog, Easy, and Cleo in the 1950's were all downgraded to cat 4's in the hurricane reanalysis project. Regardless, Matthew is forecast to weaken to a 130 mph cat 4 before it makes landfall or passes just east of Jamaica and moves into eastern Cuba, but it'll probably restrengthen past that before it hits, as unfortunate as it could be. It'll be interesting to see what the 00z GFS and Euro have to say on Matthew's future track now that it's a cat 5. Ryan1000 03:56, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Matthew (2nd time)
New advisory weakens Matthew to 155 mph and 942 mbars, but it's likely to restrengthen when it reaches the warm waters near Jamaica and Cuba. Ryan1000 10:29, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Man, I missed it! Well, at least I've tracked my first C5 ever in the Atlantic. T  G  10:55, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * A piece of trivia: with Matthew attaining Category 5 status last night, only two uses of this year's naming list did not have a Category 5: 1986, and 2010 (though Igor came close). 1980 had Allen; 1992 had Andrew; 1998 had Mitch; 2004 had Ivan; and now 2016 has Matthew. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:17, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Also, all of those names were retirees and their replacements. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 15:39, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * After getting our first cat 5 in years Matthew is weakening, after running into a trough. And also, maybe getting ready for an ERC? Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 15:58, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC discussion notes that it is possible that an ERC has began. The advisory of now showing Matthew as 140 mph and 943 mbar. I did not expect this much weakening overnight. At least I didn't miss out on seeing an Atlantic C5 on the NHC page for the first time! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:33, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Pressure back down to 943 millibars, but winds are also down to 140. EWRC is definitely starting to unfold. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 18:41, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * There were recon winds of 130kts recorded and a dropsonde measured 153kt winds just above the surface. The surface level was 958mb and the 153kt winds were recorded at both 952 and 951mb levels. Given it's continuing to organise, it very easily could be a category 5 once again. We'll have to wait for the official call in about an hour though. In addition, a new low pressure of 939 mbar has been observed. Owen 20:19, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

Moving northwest at 3 mph according to NHC; the turn just might have begun. Advisory pressure put at 940 mbar; assuming that Matthew never regains Category 5 intensity, are there any other Atlantic or Pacific Category 5s that reached their lowest pressures while below the Cat 5 threshold? I think Ava '73 is an example but I'm not certain. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:53, October 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * Dylan, Ava's pressure wasn't measured for most of the day while it was a cat 5 and it probably got below 915 mbars for a while before it rose to its lone measured value of 928, like John of 1994 had its 929 mbar reading recorded only when it had 160 mph winds; there was no pressure recorded when it had 175 mph winds, so it was likely more intense than 929. But that aside, I don't know if we've ever had a cat 5 before Matthew that attained a lower pressure but with a lesser category later in its lifetime, but there are some major hurricanes that attained lower pressures later in their life without getting to higher winds. Sandy is one example, so is Dennis (in the Caribbean, Dennis peaked with 150 mph winds and a 938 mbar pressure, but it weakened and restrengthened to 145 mph and 930 mbars in the Gulf of Mexico before weakening again and hitting the Florida Panhandle as a 3). But back to Matthew, some good news for Jamaica is Matthew is now expected to pass east of the island, but less interaction with Jamaica could mean more for Haiti, and for a storm of Matthew's strength, it would be awful to see. Plus, the models are fairly certain on the ridge building in again and forcing Matthew northwest towards the southeastern U.S. after it passes the Bahamas. Another trough may recurve him before he hits the U.S. coast, but the GFS is still adamant on Matthew riding that trough up the east coast into New England as a strong hurricane. Ryan1000 23:30, October 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew is a rarity; AFAIK, there has never been a C5 storm that reached a lower pressure at a weaker category than 5. Sandy (which wasn't a C5) is for sure the most memorable one that reached a lower pressure at a weaker intensity than its peak wind speed. Matthew is now being a massive threat to Haiti. If the official NHC forecast verifies, it will make landfall on the tip of western Haiti as a major. It will probably be at least a C4 at that time, spelling death and destruction there. Striking the poor country like that, it might end up being among the deadliest Atlantic hurricanes in the 2010s or even the 21st century (especially if it tracks a little more east than forecast). Jamaica and Cuba appear to be less of our worries now due to the threat it is currently posing to Haiti. Since that country is so impoverished, many might not even know that devastation is looming for them. And that's a really sad thing. Matthew is still possibly going to threaten the East Coast in the long run (hopefully it turns away), but all eyes are on Haiti. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:40, October 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's now down to 145 mph, but still heading north towards Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba. After Matthew moves there it'll go into the Bahamas and then north towards the U.S. east coast, though whether it will make landfall or pass just offshore is still up for debate. The 18z GFS today keeps Matthew offshore the U.S, but eventually takes it into Halifax, Nova Scotia as a very large and powerful hurricane down the road. Ryan1000 23:28, October 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * New advisory is out. Southeastern Bahamas under hurricane warning, central Bahamas now under hurricane watch. Still at 145 mph, but Matthew's pressure is now at 943 mbars. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:01, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * I knew that this would be a bad storm. Haiti is going to get hit hard by a potentially Category 4 storm. Of all the countries it could hit, and it has to hit Haiti. This is a scary, scary hurricane. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 04:18, October 3, 2016 (UTC)

2AM advisory is out. Matthew will likely make landfall on Tuesday. Winds are now down to 130 mph, pressure still at 943 mbars; still a category 4 hurricane and is currently passing over an NOAA buoy in the Caribbean. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:08, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew looks like it's ERC'ing and could possibly restrengthen once it fixes the northern eyewall later today, possibly even to a cat 5 again, before making its way into Haiti and Cuba. Jamaica is probably getting off the hook from the strongest parts of Matthew, but the global models aren't letting the U.S. off the hook yet. The Euro has been showing a much stronger ridge building back in and forcing Matthew west very close to, or making landfall on, eastern Florida while the GFS doesn't make the ridge that strong and takes it north near or onto North Carolina before heading up into the northeast or Atlantic Canada. It all depends on how Matthew fares when it interacts with eastern Cuba and Haiti. If it doesn't move over the mountains very much, its intensity may not fade very much and/or it might restrengthen over the warm waters of the Bahamas, but if it does hit the mountains for a while, it'll weaken quite a bit, since Matthew has a fairly tight concentration of strongest winds. Ryan1000 10:24, October 3, 2016 (UTC)

11AM advisory: Matthew still slowly moving towards Haiti at 6 mph, but strengthened a bit again, winds now at 140 mph and pressure went down to 941 millibars. This may hit southwestern Haiti later tonight. Hope they are prepared this time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:23, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * New models take Matthew much closer to the East Coast.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:42, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Central Bahamas is now under hurricane warning. Oh, and the pressure is back to 940 millibars, though no change at 1-minute sustained winds in the latest advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:19, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Matthew's slow movement towards Haiti could be very bad regarding mudslides in the country, when it passes near or over them tomorrow. That's not good. The east coast is looking more worrisome, as Matthew will be passing dangerously close to Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas. Matthew may remain just offshore, but with hurricanes on the U.S. east coast, even a small change in track left or right can drastically change overall impacts. Ryan1000 22:18, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Very strange how the pressure is once again lower now than it was at category 5. It still has a chance to become a cat. 5 again, but I really hope it doesn't, because if Haiti can't handle a category 2 I don't even want to imagine what a category 5, let alone a 4 will do to the poor Haitians.
 * I'm scared. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 22:19, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh, and the fact that it is likely to remain a major hurricane through the Bahamas and even while skirting the U.S. means for sure that we already have our third retirement candidate of the season. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 22:24, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * The worst part about Matthew is that it's moving like a snail, only 8 mph to the NNE with the new advisory. That's going to mean copious amounts of rainfall for the region, and flooding is the worst part about storms like Matthew in Haiti since there are so few trees on the hills to absorb the rainfall and prevent mudslides from running rampant in high rainfall. Ryan1000 00:11, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Pressure finally went below 940 mbar; 934 as of now. Makes 2015 and 2016 the first time two consecutive Atlantic seasons had a storm below 940 mbar (Joaquin and Matthew) since 2007 and 2008 (Dean, Felix and Ike). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:40, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Pressure down again to 934, even lower pressure than when it was a cat. 5! Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 00:40, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wtf, this is weird. I've never seen a storm do that; have a high pressure as a C5 and then get a lower pressure when it is weaker. Anyway, Haiti could be devastated and I would not be surprised if it ends up being extremely deadly for their poor residents. :( Now it is even looking worse for the U.S., the forecast puts the center just offshore and landfall is now appearing much more likely. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:54, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * I woke up this morning with a very bad feeling in my stomach. Take a look at this. The structure somewhat reminds me of Katrina in the way of the eye. Idk. But the track continues to shift westwards toward the US, and referring to the Katrina thing, it could be just AS BAD or WORSE than Katrina if we have a major hurricane slamming into Haiti and going up the East Coast. Unimaginable effects. Owen 10:10, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * It wouldn't surprise me if the death toll is worse in Haiti than Katrina was in the US since Haiti is such an impoverished, unprepared country for hurricanes, and a 145 mph cat 4 (just about to make) landfall there isn't going to have a happy ending for that country no matter how you slice it. However, Matthew would have to track far enough west to directly hit Miami as a cat 4 if it wants to rival Katrina's damage toll, which I have doubts about. Then again, the latest runs of the global models don't turn Matthew far enough east to avoid landfall in the U.S, currently they take it into South or North Carolina as a cat 3-4, but if Matthew remains far enough west, anywhere on Florida or even Savannah, Georgia could be hit by this mighty major hurricane. All we can really do for Haiti is pray that they come out from Matthew the best they can. Ryan1000 10:28, October 4, 2016 (UTC)

Landfall near Les Anglais, Haiti
Yep, latest ADT information says that the center is just offshore and making land. The next ADT update should show the landfall. No NHC update though. 182.58.118.3 11:51, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * 8 AM NHC advisory says Matthew made landfall near Les Anglais at 7 am, so we'll say that for the header. Haiti will probably suffer severe damage and many casualties from Matthew, hopefully it won't be too extreme though. As a side note, 98L is up to 80%. Ryan1000 12:48, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * There it is, Matthew's first of likely many landfalls. Haiti is probably getting hit hard right now. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 14:26, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * New advisory coming out in a few minutes, and Matthew seems to have weakened quite a bit after landfall. By the way, I've got a day off work today, and maybe tomorrow. So I'll be on here all day. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 14:48, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * New advisory out. Winds still at 145, but pressure is up to 950. And it's back over water. Also, Florida is now under a hurricane watch. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 15:02, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully the impacts in Haiti are not that severe. By now though, eastern Cuba, The Bahamas and Florida should've prepared themselves for this ferocious storm, as any negligence in safety precautions will certainly lead to multiple fatalities, especially now that they are dealing with a storm that currently just keeps on refusing to go lower than 130 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:09, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's not going below major hurricane status anytime soon, SST's are warm enough to support Matthew being a major hurricane as it passes to the northwest towards the southeastern U.S. coast, though it could weaken to cat 2 if it heads as far north as North Carolina. Ryan1000 15:22, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * For what it's worth, Matthew's landfall in Haiti is the strongest in the entire Atlantic basin as measured by maximum sustained winds since Gustav's 135-kt landfall on Cuba, and the strongest by minimum pressure since Felix on Nicaragua (934 mbar). Matthew is also the first Category 4 hurricane to land in Haiti as such since Cleo in 1964 - it's been 52 years since Haiti has been struck by a hurricane as strong as Matthew. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:11, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * To add onto Cleo, Haiti was also hit by category 4 hurricane Flora just 1 year before Cleo, and Flora, while slightly weaker, was much larger and it stalled over Cuba, bringing torrential rains to Haiti which killed around 5000 people in the country, making Flora Haiti's deadliest hurricane on record. Matthew isn't going to stall over Cuba like Flora did, so it probably won't be as deadly, but it's still bringing torrential rains to the impoverished nation due to his slow movement over the region, so Matthew could still kill a lot people in the country when all is said and done, not to mention the impacts Matthew will bring to the eastern tip of Cuba, the Bahamas, and the southeastern U.S. down the road. Ryan1000 16:40, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matthew appears to be making its second andfall right now, on Cuba. The new advisory in a few minutes may or may not confirm it. Leeboy100 Beware of Matthew. 23:48, October 4, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: 600 Miles East of the Leeward Islands
At 10/20, and not expecting much from this due to the upper-level winds it has to face. All of our attention is on the above beast anyway. Nicole will probably come later. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:33, October 1, 2016 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invest'd and up to 20/30.If it gets lucky, it might become a brief TS, but it'll be ripped up by Matthew's outflow like Tony was by Sandy 4 years ago. Ryan1000 10:11, October 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is a fairly nice looking invest compared to some we saw in 2013-2014. This could possibly be Nicole in a few days.Two_atl_2d1.png T  G  21:56, October 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * I hope not, unless this can pull a surprise like Kate did last November. Nicole is one of the names I've been rooting for to go to a strong hurricane this season. I honestly wouldn't have minded in retrospect if something had snuck in to steal the name Matthew so that this weekend's monster would have been named Nicole instead :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:57, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * 30/30. This may become a TD in the coming days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:04, October 3, 2016 (UTC)

Now up to 40/40, per NHC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:19, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:23, October 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * up to 60%. Looks like this might hickjack the name Nicole before its done. Most women names have been fail this year with the exception of Hermine. Sad.Allanjeff 23:47, October 3, 2016 (UTC)
 * I don't want to see any name stealer/epic fail. Unfortunately, this is bound to happen. I'm begging you; stay as a TD or weaker! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:56, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 70% with only an increase in organization and we have our 15 depression. Hoping it does not become a weak ts but we never know with this things. Matthew´s outflow might kill it in two days though. Allanjeff 05:34, October 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Winds now of 35knots if upgrade it will go straight to Nicole. AL, 98, 2016100406, 01, CARQ, 0, 232N, 603W, 35, 1010, DB, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 285, 6, INVEST, S,  Allanjeff 06:58, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Touching on Allan's point about the female names generally falling short this season; the Atlantic has been a bit sexist over the past few years. We've had six major hurricanes since Sandy, and all of them have had male names. :/ Variety is the spice of life; if the name Nicole has to go to a weakling (which I hope it doesn't; it's my second-favorite name on the list after Danielle, and the Atlantic has yet to have an 'N' storm surpass Category 1 intensity), then hopefully Paula can rise up to the occasion, as long as it does so when it's not a threat to land.
 * The Atlantic should take a page out of last year's EPAC book; that season was slightly skewed towards the female side, what with Patricia's record intensity and Jimena and Sandra coming in distant second and third places, but you also had Andres, Ignacio, and Olaf all reaching intensities of at least 125 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:13, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it is what it is, that was also the case two years ago in the EPac, when most of the season's major hurricanes were female names, though the Atlantic has had a tough time with that. Back to this, still at 70/70, and NHC notes that only a slight increase in organization would result in the formation of TD 15, or Nicole. Ryan1000 10:51, October 4, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nicole

 * And this storm is the latest addition to the fishspinner storms list of 2016. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, October 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * I knew this had a chance to become Nicole, but it's not going to last long before Matthew's outflow rips it apart in a day or two. Ryan1000 15:24, October 4, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:East of Lessers
A new AOI has popped up east of the Lesser Antilles and is at 10/20. It could become Otto down the road, but not until it reaches the westernmost or northwestern edge of the Caribbean, because Matthew churned up a lot of cold water in the central Caribbean which this is going to be moving over. Ryan1000 18:24, October 4, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions
(credit to Steve for the colors)
 * Alex - <font color="#669">1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022!
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022.
 * Colin - <font color="#449">5%  - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then.
 * Danielle - <font color="#669">1% - Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022.
 * Earl - 70% - Caused at least 65 total deaths, making it the deadliest Atlantic hurricane since Sandy, and Mexico's deadliest storm since Stan. I think Earl deserves to be retired, but it's not definite. At least $100 million in damage. Has a fairly high chance of retirement. It's quite likely he won't return in 2022.
 * Fiona - 0% - Didn't fail quite as badly as originally thought, as she reached 50 mph for a brief time and survived some moderate shear. Nevertheless, she was still a fail. Fiona the Fish Failicia will be back in 2022.
 * Gaston - 0% - Gastonic Gaston was awesome. Passed north of the Azores, but no damage or deaths were reported. See you in 2022!
 * Hermine - <font color="#390">35% - Ended the 11-year Florida hurricane drought and caused at least $500 million in damage and 5 deaths. Hermine has a chance to go, but I think it's more than likely it will stay.
 * Ian - 0% - Weak fishspinner, luckily it managed to reach 60 mph. Ian will return in 2022.
 * Julia - <font color="#669">2% - No confirmed deaths, but its remnants produced a lot of heavy rain in North Carolina and Virginia. Retirement is extremely unlikely, though.

~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions and storm grades:
(Other users can feel free to use my colors)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

(Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++, A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: Grade: <font color="#094">A+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - In the Azores, it caused a death and minimal damage. It was an amazing early season hurricane and one of the earliest hurricanes on record. Its "being early" achievement alone is deserving of the grade I gave. It still could have been better though, like a major hurricane not affecting land.
 * Bonnie: Grade: D- Retirement: <font color="#449">5%  - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. It was just a weak TS that barely amounted to much, but the fact that it was the second pre-season storm and that it regenerated increases its grade. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.
 * Colin: Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement:  10%  - Colin was the earliest 3rd named storm on record, enough to raise the grade by about a letter. However, it was really disorganized. 4 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement.
 * Danielle: Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1%  - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. It was also the earliest 4th named storm on record, enough to raise the grade a little.
 * Earl: Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#F70">75%  - Gets credit for being a hurricane and especially for restrengthening over the BOC, but the damage and deaths it caused is enough to lower the grade a little. 65 deaths and at least $115.5 million dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This storm has a high shot at retirement due to the destruction and deadly floods and mudslides that it caused throughout Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, as well as the deaths it caused as a tropical wave. It was the deadliest storm to strike Mexico since Stan in 2005, and the deadliest storm overall in the Atlantic since Sandy. If Stan was retired, this likely will be too. I doubt Earl will still be around in 2022.
 * Fiona: Grade: <font color="#F20">E  Retirement:  0%  - A storm that tried and fought the dry air well, but it was weak so I cannot give it any higher than an E.
 * Gaston: Grade:  A  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - An impressive major hurricane that fought to stay alive. It also became a cool annular hurricane with a big eye. It didn't cause damage or kill people. But it did touch the Azores, preventing a complete 0%.
 * Eight: Grade: <font color="#500">Z  Retirement:  You can't retire a TD. :P  - A laughable fail. It never became a TS despite repeated predictions for it to become one. XD
 * Hermine: Grade:  B-  Retirement:  40%  - This seems to have a chance, with at least 500 million in damage and 5 deaths. Destruction in Florida was not good - photos showed many forced from their homes as well as bad flooding, destroyed roads, people using canoes to get to places, and more. If Isaac was snubbed, this might have a lower chance of retirement than at first glance. For the grade, it gets points for breaking the Florida hurricane landfall drought, and being the first GOM hurricane since Ingrid.
 * Ian: Grade:  F  Retirement:  0%   - Just a weak fishspinner, but a good 60 mph peak prevents a "Z" grade.
 * Julia: Grade:  D-  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - Gets a real upping of the grade for doing awesome stunts, such as forming over land (first to do so since 1988!) and the first storm on record to form directly over Florida. It also lasted a while as a TD after weakening late in its life. However, it was still a weakling, so I cannot give anything higher than D-. Any damage was minimal and no deaths have occurred, so far.
 * Karl: Grade:  F  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - Small impacts to Bermuda give this a non-zero retirement chance. I was tempted to give this a Z, but reaching 70 mph is too good for my lowest possible fail grade. It sucks how this did not even try or become a hurricane. It was SOO close! Karl was a MAJOR disappointment! >:(
 * Lisa: Grade: <font color="#500">Z  Retirement:  0%  - LOL.
 * Matthew: Grade: TBA Retirement: TBA - First C5 since 2007! This is looking extremely monsterous too... at the end the grade might be at least A+ and the retirement...oh my god, I won't be surprised if the chance exceeds 80% at the end. I'm worried...

Raindrop's Retirements
(Retirement colors:   0% , <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% ,  10% , <font color="#049">15% ,  20% , <font color="#094">25% ,  30% , <font color="#390">35% ,  40% , <font color="#CF0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% ,  70% , <font color="#F70">75% ,  80% , <font color="#F20">85% ,  90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022.
 * Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: <font color="#669">2% - 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though.
 * Danielle: <font color="#669">1% - Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed.
 * Earl: <font color="#CF0">45%  - Wow, Earl really had a big impact for a category 1 hurricane! The flooding turned out to be extensive and the death toll is over 60 now. This means Earl definitely has a shot at retirement. Due to the NHC being conservative about retiring names and the fact that current damage totals are not too extensive yet, I'm keeping the odds of retirement worse than even, but Earl has caused major disruption to an entire country and this may need to be raised later.
 * Fiona:  0%  - Fiona was a weak storm, but it fought! Fiona tried her best through days of strong shear, but eventually lost the battle. However, Fiona's ghost still wanted to haunt us and contributed to the formation of TD8. Fiona was actually a pretty fun storm to track, and for the first time this year, it only spun fish.
 * Gaston:  0%  - Our first major hurricane of the season, Gaston, put on an impressive show while never threatening any land  - actually Gaston threatened the Azores, but weakened rapidly and did nothing. Gaston looked pretty bad during the period of high shear, but once that was gone, Gaston did not dissapoint! Gaston's lame attempt at affecting land doesn't even give it the slightest shot at retirement, considering Alex did practically nothing to the Azores. RIP Gaston, you were an amazing storm!
 * Hermine: <font color="#094">25%  - Hermine was the storm that finally brought the Florida hurricane drought to an end. Of course, that comes with a cost. Rainfall has been extensive with Hermine, and the storm surge has been bad, and it appears more impacts are yet to come. With the potential for future impacts, Hermine is not done yet despite no longer being tropical, and it stands a shot of retirement. However, the NHC snubbed Issac and other storms that hit the US and did damage, so the chance will remain low unless damage totals end up being a few billion dollars, which is hopefully not the case.
 * Ian:  0%  - Ian was a not-so-great fish storm that did manage to reach 60 mph before becoming extratropical. The most notable thing about Ian was that is was rocketing NE at over 50 mph when it became extratropical.
 * Julia: <font color="#669">1%  (Preliminary) - Julia formed OVER LAND, but despite that enigma didn't do much so far. This is still a preliminary estimate because Julia has consistently defied forecast predictions and may not be done with yet, and could still end up anywhere.
 * Karl: TBD - We'll see what Karl does to land,if anything, eventually, but right now nothing significant has happened yet.

Puffle's retirement predictions
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)


 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Alex : <font color="#669">1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bonnie : <font color="#449">5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. T  G  20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Colin : 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022.  T G  12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danielle : <font color="#449">5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm.   T G  17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Earl : 90% - Deadliest in Mexico since Stan, more damaging than Iris, what else can make this go? Earl pretty much devastated Mexico, and Mexico actually issued a state of emergency. The one reason Karl didn't go was because it only caused lots of damage and few fatalities. Earl caused both a high number of damage and fatalities, which is basically what made Stan go in 2005.  T G  17:38, August 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Fiona : 0% - Finally, a break from casualties, but Fiona was a very disappointing storm, much like its 2010 predecessor. T  G  22:01, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Gaston : <font color="#669">1% - Gaston didn't do anything in the Azores, but he gets a 1% chance for affecting the area. Gaston might be my favorite looking Atlantic storm.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Hermine : 50% - Hermine does have a chance to go, but we saw many storms snubbed by the United States in the past few years, such as Fay and Isaac. I've raised my prediction up to 50% because it caused some pretty extensive damage in Florida, but I'm not sure about retirement because of Fay and Isaac.   T G  20:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ian : <font color="#449">5% - Ian caused some minor impacts in Iceland, which is very unusual for a storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Julia : <font color="#669">1% - Julia does get acknowledgement for being the first storm since 1988 to form over land. Julia didn't do much on land, and it was a very weak storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Karl : <font color="#669">1% - Karl caused some minimal damage in Cape Verde. Karl was feared to be like Fabian at one point, but it barely did anything there. Karl's coming back for 2022.  T G  13:18, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Lisa : <font color="#669">1% - Lisa also caused minor damage in Cape Verde. That saying, Lisa will be back in 2022.  T G  20:14, September 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff6060">Matthew : <font color="#CF0">45% - FIRST C5 SINCE 2007!!! This is a very bad storm though. We've already saw Dominica and St. Lucia get shut down from Matthew, and a couple fatalities. The sad thing is, a lot of people in the Caribbean have almost no device to capture or see the news. So, the fatality total can be fairly high in the end. T  G  10:42, September 29, 2016 (UTC)

Leeboy's retirements.
Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1.1%-   Early  and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% isn't due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased.
 * Bonnie-<font color="#449">5%: My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement.
 * Colin- 10%:  Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly.

Leeboy100 Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle-  <font color="#449">5%:  Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death.
 * Earl:  50%:  Wow, I did not expect it to be this bad, this actually has a fair chance of retirement.
 * Fiona- 0%: LOL
 * Gaston-0% Just an absolutely beautiful hurricane that fortunately stayed out to sea. Gaston redeemed himself after 2004 and 2010.
 * Hermine-45%: Now, this was an interesting storm, the destruction it caused gives it a chance at retirement.
 * Ian-0%: See Fiona
 * Julia-1%: lolwut, what was Julia even doing?
 * Karl-0%: Nope.
 * Lisa-0%: See Fiona, Ian and Karl.
 * Matthew- currently active: after 9 years, we finally have a cat 5 in the Atlantic since 2007. If it does what it is forecast to do, retirement is almost certain.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5.
 * 1) Alex: grade A, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022.
 * 2) Bonnie: grade C, retirement 10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low.
 * 3) Colin: grade C, retirement 15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C.
 * 4) Danielle: grade D, retirement 5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality.
 * 5) Earl: grade B, retirement 65%. Nice start to August after an absolutely horrible July, but there have been 67 deaths overall, making Earl the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy. The damage total has gone up to at least US$250 million, with most of that from Belize and Mexico. This indeed has a decent chance of leaving the lists.
 * 6) Fiona: E, retirement 0%. First storm that hasn't affected land. Unfortunately it was weak.
 * 7) Gaston: grade A, retirement 5%. Became a major twice, with the second time at unusually high latitude. Azores impact was minor.
 * 8) Hermine: grade B, retirement 50%. It pulled itself together to become a hurricane at the last minute after a frustrating two weeks hoping it would actually become something, and broke Florida's 11-year hurricane-proof streak. Unfortunately the severity of damage is alarming, with damage estimated at US$500 million, but luckily the death toll is low. There's a 50-50 chance this will be retired.
 * 9) Ian: grade E, retirement 0%. Strengthened to 50 knots, but overall still a name-stealer.
 * 10) Julia: grade D, retirement 5%. This formed over Florida and lasted for a surprisingly long time, but didn't cause much significant impact.
 * 11) Karl: grade E, retirement 5%. Managed to last to Bermuda, where impact was minor, despite being in hostile conditions for its early life. But once the shear weakened it didn't try.
 * 12) Lisa: grade E, retirement 0%. At least it hit 45 knots. Another name-stealer.
 * 13) Matthew: currently active, retirement 20%. Most models make this a landfalling major. Bad things may happen.

~ KN2731 {talk} 12:32, September 30, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
We have enough storms by now for me to start: There you have it...for now. Ryan1000 21:08, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 1% - Killed a person and caused a little damage in the Azores, on top of being a very rare January hurricane. Not negligible, but not enough for retirement either.
 * Bonnie - 2% - Killed two people and caused some damage in South Carolina from floods, on top of being the second pre-season storm in an Atlantic season in only 4 years. Still not enough for retirement though.
 * Colin - 4% - Earliest 3rd storm and was a little deadlier than Bonnie and Alex, but still rather minor overall.
 * Danielle - 1% - Earliest 4th storm, but Danielle only caused minor impacts in Mexico and probably won't get retired.
 * Earl - 65% - The death toll has been upped to more than 60, mostly in Mexico, and there was at least 250 million in damage (110 million in Belize alone) from Earl, which is rather extensive, though not catastrophic. If the final damage totals turn out to be what I fear they could be (around 1+ billion), then this is probably a guaranteed retirement. It was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Not a complete fail but was a fishspinner nonetheless, so no
 * Gaston - 1% - Passed over the western Azores as a tropical storm, so it had some minor land impacts, but it's not enough.
 * Hermine - 23% - 5 deaths and 300 million in damage isn't negligible, but for the the U.S, it's likely not enough. Keep in mind the U.S. did snub a few recent storms like Isaac '12 and Fay '08, both of which were more destructive and deadly than Hermine.
 * Ian - 0% - Not a pathetic fail but a fishspinner regardless.
 * Julia - 1% - Didn't expect this to form over Florida, but it wasn't too bad either way.
 * Karl - 1% - Minor effects on Bermuda, but it wasn't anywhere close to Gonzalo, let alone Fay, 2 years ago.
 * Lisa - 0% - Another fishspinning fail, but at least it managed to re-intensify into a TS once before dying.
 * Matthew - ?? - Still active, but could be a very bad storm for Haiti and the southeastern U.S.
 * Nicole - 0% - Still active, but it's not likely to affect any land areas.

iBahan1829's List Of Retirement Candidates
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:50, August 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) Category 1 Alex: 0.1%: Barely any damage to the Azores. So, Alex will return in 2022.
 * 2) Tropical Storm Bonnie: 0.1%: Like Alex, Bonnie did barely any damage to any land. Regeneration was neat, but this storm ended up weak anyway.
 * 3) Tropical Storm Colin: 1%: Actually did something. Flooded multiple Florida cities and that's pretty much all it did. Debby was worse, but it still wasn't retired. Colin will stay for 2022.
 * 4) Tropical Storm Danielle: 0.1%: Repeat of Alex and Bonnie. Next!
 * 5) Category 1 Earl: 55%: Okay, now we're talking. ~60 deaths!? Holy cow! Bad Earl! On top of that, it caused havoc in Belize! This might actually get retired.
 * 6) Tropical Storm Fiona: 0%: Fiona is equal to fish, so I might as well give this a 0%.
 * 7) Category 3 Gaston: 2%: Could be the second tropical storm this year to impact the Azores, so that 2% is what I predict.
 * 8) Category 1 Hermine: 40-50%: This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact FLORIDA, and the first hurricane to impact Florida period since Wilma of October 2005 . So, good luck, Florida. Oh, and by the way, Florida is the 20%, the other 20-30% is the U.S. east coast and New England...

Allan´s retirement Predictions
1. Alex 0.1%  Even though it was a really good surprise, and had an indirect death,its nothing for it to be retire from the list. So we will see him again in 2022.

2. Bonnie 0.1% She was a fighter not going to doubt it, She even came back from death but its impact in the states were minimal at most. She just tickle some states. The 2 deads will not make the states ask for her, so Sayonara until 2022.

3,Colin 0.1% Damages were even less than Bonnie but he produce double of deads. That .1% its just becausse it affect land because imo it merits a zero.

4. Danielle 0.1% Weakest storm so far in 2016 and it just produce 1 death. Her effects on Mexico were minimal and at most they were overshadow by Earl later on. So see you in 2022 beotch.

5. Earl 65% the real deal of the season so far. His damages in Belize are compare to those of Iris in 2001 it has already produce 100,000 dollars in damage and its not final tally in that country. Earl big chance of retirement comes from its effects in Mexico where it has 52 deads so far and its describe as the worst storm in Puebla´s history. It produce damages to other states too. With the death toll in a country that prides itself from being prepare to this types of disasters it was a hard hit for Mexico´s ego. Imo they will not condone this one to be staying. I am not counting the DR because the fatalities were when Earl was disturbance and not a storm as such it might not count  for choice in retirement.

6 Fiona 0% Meh not a weak ts not a strong one, a fail but not a complete one,Still Fiona is coming back in 2022. She was almost an exact copy of her predecesor in 2010, better luck next time lady.

7 Gaston 0.1% Our first major of the season and the a big high ACE contributor, thanks for that Captain, aside of that effects in the Azores were minimal if any. He will be back, that is for sure.

8 Hermine 40% This will be preliminary until her report comes out with the monetary damage with all damage figures. I am actually generous with Hermine as the states have seen much worse storms than her. 500,000 dollars is not something to laugh about but nothing compare to other storms the States have dealt with. If she had another day like models were predicting these figures would have been much higher but thank God she didnt. Anyhow it was nice to finally have a hurricane with the name Hermine.

9 Ian 0% A fishpinner. Stronger than Fiona but nothing incredible. I actually want this name to fail, didnt fail as I want it but fail in intensity nonetheless. Lol Many were disappointed he didnt follow his predecesors footsteps but imo Ian is a weak name so I did enjoy that he was only a strong moderate ts. Anyways try harder in 2022 little thing, might have luck in that season XD.

10 Julia 0.3% I actually want the name Julia to be used for a strong name, sadly it was just given to a stealer and weak system. One of the most annoying and fighter storms I have track. she didnt want to fail and she was seeing a tunnel to the light were wind shear was low and once the shear start to decrease she died. TDFW. Really frustrating storm will see the damages of this storm once the NHC release her reports. probably minimal though. First tropical storm to form over land that I track though. My first storm to track that became a hurricane overland was Irene.

11 Karl 0.7% Afffected Bermuda and Cape Verdes with rains and breeze but nothing more, it try and try but failed to become a hurricane. What a disappointment. I actually thought this would had been our 5th hurricane of the season, might be upgrade but who knows. See you in 2022 Karl and try harder please next time.

12 Lisa 0.01% Affected cape Verdes  like Karl with showers and low winds but she is a fishpinner and nothing more. like Karl she fight and fight shear and dry air but ultimately succumbing before doing anything worth.Expect her in 2022. Allanjeffs 05:57, September 23, 2016 (UTC)

Isaac's prediction
0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%. -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:18, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 0% - Little damage to Azores.
 * Bonnie - 0% - Less than $1 million in damage.
 * Colin - 0% - Minimal damage.
 * Danielle - 0% - Little damage.
 * Earl - 50% - Over $100 million in damage and 67 deaths, a good possibility.
 * Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Gaston - ?

Owen's prediction
Owen 04:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: 0% - Neat January hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were minor.
 * Bonnie: 0% - Minimal tropical storm and minimal land impact.
 * Colin: 0% - The real problem caused by Colin was flooding, but Debby of 2012 was worse and wasn't retired.
 * Danielle: 0% - Mexico has seen worse.
 * Earl: 50% - I'm giving Earl a 50/50 chance because there has been past hurricanes such as Karl which were ultimately snubbed by Mexico, but my gut feeling is it will go if it's the worst death toll since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Disappointing fish storm that didn't really do much.
 * Gaston - 0% - He was a pretty nice major hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were ultimately minimal at best.
 * Hermine - 25% - I don't forsee Hermine going, despite the fact she was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 11 years. The damages were less than Fay of 2008, which wasn't retired.
 * Ian - 0% - I honestly wish the name went to a much stronger storm this year, but it ended up being a moderate tropical storm that was just a fish.
 * Julia - 0% - Again, it was neat seeing another uncommon thing like her forming overland, but impacts were minor at best in Florida.
 * Karl - 0% - I mean he kept trying his whole life to persist, but never managed to become a hurricane and didn't affect Bermuda much but he's gonna be back.
 * Lisa: 0% - Fishspinner Lisa will be spinning the way to return in 2022.

Post-Season Changes
I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC finally released the TCR for Alex today, but there's no change to its peak intensity (still at 85 mph, 981 mbars); however it was downgraded to a 65 mph storm on it's landfall in the Azores island of Terceira in reanalysis, from 70 mph operationally. Ryan1000 20:49, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Although Alex's peak intensity was not changed, something cool about the TCR was that it was found to have formed a full day earlier than originally thought. This means the 2016 Atlantic season officially started on January 12, not January 13. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 00:19, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Danielle is out. Little change, if any. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:11, September 21, 2016 (UTC)

Replacement names
Earl is looking to be a surprisingly good candidate for retirement at this point, given the rather high death toll in Mexico and damage in Belize, despite its low intensity. So...if Earl does get retired, what do you think it should be replaced by? Some of my suggestions are here:
 * Edvin
 * Edgar
 * Elan
 * Eli(e)
 * Elvin
 * Emmett
 * Emile
 * Elliot
 * Elric
 * Evan
 * Ethan
 * Elwin
 * Elwood
 * Elson

Like with Joaquin last year, there are a lot of good "E" names available to replace Earl given that 1) relatively few "E" names have been retired, and 2) none of the "E" retirees we have had were male names. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd go with either Edgar or Evan. T  G  10:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * My vote goes to Elliott, spelled the same way as Elliott Smith. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Edgar and Elvis would be some good replacements. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Mexico's track record might mean this could have a lower shot of retirement (especially since they snubbed storms such as Alex and Karl), but I personally think it has a pretty good shot at getting retired, since it was the deadliest hurricane since Sandy and caused at least $100 million in damage (in Belize alone). Once Mexico damage tolls come out, I won't be surprised if the toll skyrockets past $1 billion. My favorite replacement names out of Ryan's list are Edgar, Elliot, Evan, and Ethan. I also suggest Emmanuel, and as Bob said above, Elvis (a storm named after Elvis Presley would be epic!). <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't really like having the name "Elvis" on the lists because of "Hurricane Elvis" in 2003, which was a deadly derecho that struck Memphis with 100 mph winds. T  G  10:56, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Steve, The thing is that I think Mexico didnt retired Karl because it didnt caused a lot of deads like Earl has done. Its now being said in the news that this have been the worst storm on record for Puebla in terrms of death toll. Maybe the damage of Karl was extensive but I am pretty sure many Mexicans do not remember him because the death toll was low and most damage was concentrated in Veracruz. Meanwhile Earl have caused trouble in Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Queretaro and Hidalgo to mention some. Being Mexico the most affected of the countries in the path of Earl I believe its replacement will be in Spanish so Elias, Efrain,Emanuel or Edgar are good candidates for replacement. If Belize is the one to request it for retirement the name might be one usually use in English. Allanjeffs 17:58, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Here are some more "E" names: Andros 1337 (talk) 21:11, August 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Edwin
 * Elmo
 * Emilio
 * Enrico
 * Enzo
 * Emanuel
 * Emanuele
 * Evaristo
 * Evandro
 * Edison
 * Edmond
 * Elton
 * Emery
 * Eustace


 * I would really hate seeing Emanuel on the list due to confusion with the very similar name, Manuel. T  G  11:00, August 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I was going to mention that too, I doubt Em(m)anuel will be chosen to replace Earl, especially since the country most affected by Earl (Mexico) retired Manuel just 3 years ago. My favorite choice would be Evan, but if Mexico submits Spanish names then Esteban would be my pick. Emilio and Enrico are also possible but they could be confused with Emilia (the female version of the name, and scheduled for the 2018 EPac season) and Enrique (used last year in the EPac). Ryan1000 04:47, August 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * With Joaquin last year, we've seen that replacement names don't have to match the country or the language of the retired name. Edwin or Edvin, Edgar, Edison or Elvis sound more likely from the NHC. Unless the NHC decides to continue with names of popular movie/TV characters and goes with Elmo. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:14, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it's not a universal rule of thumb (Felix '07 hit Nicaragua hard, a Spanish-speaking country, but they chose Fernand, the French version of Fernando, to replace him), but it's usually more likely for said affected country to submit names of their language, and the WMO usually picks the first of the 3-4 names that are submitted to them for replacement. Ryan1000 03:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)