Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

September
Same as last month,  It's already September according to UTC. Here comes the peak of the season! Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:30, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * While the Atlantic has three simultaneous hurricanes, this basin is dead. Ugh. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:34, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, this really feels like a La Nina occurring now. I can't wait to see "Max" form, as that is the name of one of my dogs! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:37, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nobody watches this basin right now, as everyone focuses on the Atlantic, especially Irma. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:29, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * We haven't seen a single CPac-named storm this season. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:11, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Baja
Finally something appears on the 5-day outlook; it's at 0/20. GFS and ECMWF both make this a hurricane at 160+ hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:15, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 0/40. Hoping it's a powerful fishspinner, because the name "Max" seems ominous. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:51, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 0/50. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:56, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
0/20, conditions expected to be marginally conducive. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:56, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 10/50. I guess it will be a race for the name "Max". ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:19, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * 20/70. I think this will be Max. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:48, September 11, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Remnants of Katia
20/20. Doubt this will redevelop though. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:19, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E
Are you sure about that, Steve? ;) 25 kts/1006 mbar, could become a weak Tropical Storm Max in about a day or so before weakening. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:02, September 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Ok, this caught me by surprise. 15-E, whatever you do, don't intensify beyond 30 knots/35 mph. If it does, we will have the most massive excuse of a named TC ever (possibly worse than even Failicia, Karina '08, or Pilar '87). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:00, September 12, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:


 * 1) Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
 * 2) Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
 * 3) Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
 * 4) Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.
 * 5) Eugene - 1% - Eugene defied the odds and became a major hurricane, albeit for a short timeframe. There was some heavy surf in Baja California and Southern California, and this caused hundreds of rescues. Fortunately, there were no fatalities reported, and damage should be minor at most.
 * 6) Fernanda - ~0% - Fernanda became a powerful major hurricane and the strongest of the year so far. Moreover, it managed to survive into the CPAC. However, the only impact from this hurricane whatsoever was some surf in Hawaii, and that was likely not memorable for them.
 * 7) Greg - 0% - Greg, despite not becoming hurricane, lasted much longer than I expected and even managed to survive into the CPAC. However, with no land effects, it will most likely be staying (unless some Diary of a Wimpy Kid fanatic requests that the WMO remove this name).
 * 8) Hilary - 1% - Impactwise, it does not appear that Hilary was significant for Mexico or anywhere else, albeit moving parallel to the former's coastline. Although I have added a grace percentage to account for the (unlikely) possibility that this name will be retired due to the connotation with Secretary Clinton, I would like to note that the names of other prominent politicians of the countries surrounding the EPAC (e.g. Enrique) have been on these naming lists since their inception back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and were not removed because they took power.
 * 9) Irwin - 0% - Irwin became decently strong in spite of its proximity to Hilary and lasted for a while as well. However, it will go down in history as just another harmless hurricane in the EPAC.
 * 10) Jova - ~0% - To be honest, if Jova had not formed from Franklin's remnants, I would not have even mentioned this system. Sure, it passed near Socorro Island, but absolutely no impact was reported whatsoever there or elsewhere.
 * 11) Kenneth - 0% - Well, what a stunt devil Kenneth was! Category 4 intensity was definitely beyond what the forecasts were calling for! Luckily, there is not much else to talk about regarding this hurricane. See you again in six years!

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 02:20, August 29, 2017 (UTC))

Retirements from Steve
Check the "Notes" tab for explanations on why I did some things the way I did. Retirements=
 * Adrian : ~0% , F - Fun fact: This was once forecast to be a formidable hurricane. An epic disgraceful fail, but saved from getting the "Z" classifications because it was the earliest named EPac storm ever.
 * Beatriz : 7.5% , Z - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
 * Calvin : 0.1% , Z - Same affected areas as Beatriz but was less damaging and no deaths occurred. Retirement's out of the question.
 * Dora : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#8F0">C+ - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Somewhat exceeded expectations in terms of intensity but never made C2.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#068">A- - Fishspinner that barely made major hurricane status, but tried its best.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#03B">A - An amazing hurricane that got pretty strong and lasted 10 days. The grade is prevented from being "A+" or higher due to the fact that it had potential for C5 strength, but failed to reach it due to the ERCs it did.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F00">F - Despite continued forecasts for hurricane intensity, it failed to become one throughout its over a week of existing. Didn't even get into the "strong TS" category but I guess the longevity is a bonus.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#0B3">B - Didn't become a major despite predictions to do so, although it was somewhat resilient in the end, thus improving the grade from what it otherwise would have been. The name conflicts with 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. But Hillary is not the current president. As a result, the chances that it will receive the "Israel, Adolph, Isis" treatment are very small, almost nil. "Don" in the Atlantic has a much higher chance (20%) to receive that treatment because of Donald Trump, who is the current president.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#068">A- - Although weaker than Hilary, it was amazingly resilient.
 * <font color="#0CF">Jova : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞)  - What a joke.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Kenneth : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#00A">A++  - Fishspinner that exceeded every NHC prediction, so this gets a fantastic grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Lidia : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#F50">D - Flooding in Baja + 7 deaths give this a small chance. Also gave me some moisture and rain showers.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.



Notes= Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0% (PAGASA only), <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% (PAGASA only) 

Intensity colors: <font color="#0CF">Weak TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">Moderate TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">Severe TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 (Minor Hurricane) , <font color="#ffe775">C2 (Moderate Hurricane) , <font color="#ffc140">C3 (Major Hurricane) , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 (Intense Hurricane) , <font color="#ff6060">160-180 mph C5 (Super Hurricane) , <font color="#900">≥185 mph C5 (Cataclysmic Super Hurricane) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''


 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin, which is the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired. A percentage that is in-between is never used in such a basin.
 * For other basins that don't have retirement requirements (the vast majority of basins), ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The colors for "weak TS" and "Cataclysmic Super Hurricane" are made up and not part of the official color classification. The "severe TS" color is the same as the "Severe Tropical Storm" color used in basins such as the WPac. The labels "Severe TS" and "Super Hurricane" are at least partially borrowed from the WPac.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:02, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
<p style="font-weight:normal;">I'll do mine right now.

<p style="font-weight:normal;">50% or more: Italics Ok, here we go: <p style="font-weight:normal;">That's all for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:54, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

<p style="font-weight:normal;">Formerly: 70.190.5.175

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : 0% - Does get credit for being the earliest EPac storm on record. Multiple forecasts predicted Adrian to become a hurricane, and it didn't even become a 50 mph tropical storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#669">1% - When it comes to retirement, Beatriz doesn't even come close to the snubs. I wouldn't even give this more than a 1% chance of retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Calvin almost fizzled out before landfall, but there was minimal damage. This will be coming back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#889">0.01% - Dora caused some minor damage. Dora didn't impress me, but that's just my opinion.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : 0% - Eugene defied forecasts, and became a major hurricane...barely. I feel like Eugene could've done better. Eugene stayed out in the open waters, so he will be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#889">0.01% - The remnants of Fernanda struck Hawaii, and that doesn't count as much.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : 0% - Failicia 2.0.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : 50% - Hilary was forecast to become a major multiple times, and it never did. However, with political issues, Hilary could be retired this coming spring. It is more likely to happen to Hilary because the EPac is the only one who gives the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment. I think that this and Don could be retired.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : 0% - Out in the ocean. I doubt this will go.

Raindrop's Retirements
Adrian: 0%, grade <font color="#F50">D - Extra credit for becoming the earliest tropical storm in the EPAC proper, minus three letter grades for being dissipated when it was forecast to be a 100 mph storm. Seriously, what was that?

Beatriz: <font color="#889">0.03%, grade <font color="#F00">F - A weak TS that made landfall in Mexico. It will be back in 2023 since Mexico has never retired a storm that has done such little damage. It doesn't get a Z as it still formed relatively early and caused impacts.

Calvin: Whatever the chance of winning the lottery is%, grade <font color="#A00">F- - It formed. It hit land. It died. It did not do much. It failed. It does not get a Z as it caused impacts.

Dora: 0%, grade <font color="#8F0">C+ - Just an average hurricane that formed, strengthened, peaked, weakened, and died. It did look pretty good at peak intensity. It gets a slightly better grade than an average "C" grade because it was the first hurricane of the season. It caused no impacts of significance.

Eugene: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - A fishspinner that did make major status, barely. Therefore it gets an A, barely. Besides the fact that it strengthened more than expected, Eugene followed a rather straightforward path from formation to dissipation, which does not help its grade. No impacts = no retirement.

Fernanda: 0%, grade <font color="#00F">A+ - Fernanda was an amazing and beautiful storm that did not hit land. Its sudden RI to category 4 status was quite cool, and although it did not reach category 5 status, it gets an A plus due to its rather long lifespan and slight resilience when it was weakening.

Greg: 0%, grade <font color="#F80">D+ - Greg ended up underperforming forecasts in the end, but did have some interesting aspects to its life. (Most notably when it went from looking like it was going to strengthen to having an exposed center :P) Greg did briefly hit 60 mph before that, and that along with its long life give it an ok grade.

Hilary: 10%, grade <font color="#0B3">B - Hilary fell short of expectations, just like in the election, by not becoming a major when it was forecasted to for a long time. It still became a decent hurricane, and its brief restrengthening when it was over cold waters brings up its grade quite a bit. It gets a significant but small shot at retirement due to the name's relation to the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Irwin: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - Irwin was originally slow to strengthen, getting named while still having an exposed center. During its pretty long life, Irwin would always find a way to do just a little more than forecasts predicted, by strengthening to 90 mph and then near the end of its life refusing to die. The only time Irwin was not resilient was during its sudden rapid weakening from 90 to 50 mph in under 24 hours. The fact that Irwin was resilient in the end makes up for that. I give Irwin an A- as it was a lot of fun to track and looked quite pretty at times.

Jova:  0%, grade <font color="#600">Z-  - An epic fail, didn't even stay at TS strength for 1 day. The only reason it doesn't get the lowest grade is because it was never supposed to be strong in the first place.

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Adrian - 0.05% - that .05% is for Adrian being the earliest forming storm in the Eastern Pacific proper (excl. Central Pacific)
 * Beatriz - 4% - minimal impact, though there were a number of fatalities.
 * Calvin & Dora - 0% - see you both in 2023.
 * Eugene - 1.5% - for being the first major of the season. Will be back in 2023.
 * Fernanda - 2.5% - for being the first Category 4 hurricane of the season; also expected to be back in 2023.
 * Greg & Irwin - 2% - although weaker than Eugene and Fernanda, they were fun to track because of their relatively long lives. Both will be back in 2023 though.
 * Hilary - 3% - If we will only consider its actual impact(s), Hilary will be back in 2023. However, I am not sure if that will happen, given the political situation right now. While it may not get retired, but this may be removed (due to the name being very similary to Hillary Clinton, with the exception of its spelling of course). May become Adolph/Israel/Isis 4.0 (along with Don in the Atlantic).

More to follow.

Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Time to toss in my two cents: Ryan1000 22:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 0% - A rare pre-season storm, in fact the earliest ever in the East Pacific proper (up to 140W), but it didn't affect land, so, see ya in 2024.
 * Beatriz - 3% - Gets credit for its minor effects in Mexico, like in 2011, but it won't be retired.
 * Calvin - 1% - A little less severe than Beatriz.
 * Dora - 1% - It didn't make landfall, but its outer rainbands caused some damage to Mexico.
 * Eugene - 0% - It did cause some swells in southern California that prompted water rescues, but no one was killed and there was no damage, so Mr. Krabs will be back again in 2024.
 * Fernanda - 0% - A powerful and long-lived major hurricane, the second-southernmost on record in the EPac after Olaf in 2015, but she caused no impacts on land, so she'll be back again in 2024.
 * Greg - 0% - Lasted a while, but never became a hurricane, so meh.
 * Hilary - 0% - A failed intensity forecast, just like a failed presidential campaign last year. I personally doubt Hilary (and Don) will be removed from the naming lists just because they so happened to be the names of the two main U.S. presidential candidates in the 2016 election; if Hilary and/or Don are removed for that reason, I won't count them as retirements (due to impact) as neither storm was notable in that regard.
 * Irwin - 0% - Another fishie, but at least it became a hurricane.
 * Jova - 0% - Came out of Franklin in the Atlantic, but it was weak and didn't affect land itself, so no retirement.
 * Kenneth - 0% - Impressive intensity streak, continuing the category 4 incarnations of this name every time it was used in the EPac, but like the others, it didn't hit land, so it won't be retired.

Rah's predictions!
blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 16:47, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian: 0%, forgettable.
 * Beatriz: 1%, caused a bit of havoc in Mexico but that was just another weather event.
 * Calvin: 0%, drop us some sick beats in 2023, Harris!
 * Dora: 0%, coming back to explore the East Pacific in 2023.
 * Eugene: 0%, the crab may have reached major hurricane status, but won't be retired.
 * Nanda: 0%, AMAZING FISH STORM, probably the highlight of the season so far, but PLEASE, DO THAT AGAIN IN 2023!
 * Greg: 0%, Cook us something tasty next time, Chef Wallace! That wasn't good enough.
 * Hilary: 10%, maybe for the Clinton memes on Twitter (alongside the Trump memes in the Atlantic) but maybe not, to be honest.
 * Irwin: 0%, the crocodile hunter will be coming back.
 * JoJo: 100% 0%, WE LOVE YOU JOJO! YOU WERE THE BEST STORM EVER, MATE! -sarcasm intensifies-
 * Kenny: 0%, Fun storm to track! Well done Kenny for always being a (friendly, fishie) category 4! Now, can you get to category 5 in 2023? Please stay nice!
 * Lyd: 5%, just another weather event in Mexico. Beatriz 2.

Post-Season Changes
Made a table to make it easier to compare changes. So far Beatriz and Calvin's TCRs are out, with Calvin getting a small upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:56, September 7, 2017 (UTC)