Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season/August

August
It's technically been August for a little over an hour now, so I guess it's time to start a new header. and with that comes an AoI! When will the fun stop? Cyclone1 (01:09 UTC -1/08/2007)

AoI: North Gulf
Stalled out frontal boundary in the Gulf. TWC has mentioned this, saying that this area needs to be watched for the formation of a possible low. A few models develop this, taking into the Panhandle as a depression. Interesting? Cyclone1 (01:09 UTC -1/08/2007)


 * Not unless you're making vacation plans for the Panhandle. -- SkyFury 04:10, 1 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I think more likely a storm will form EAST of Florida. -Winter123 04:24, 1 August 2007 (UTC)


 * No, I think the Gulf is definitely the place to watch. Just west of Florida. Upper level winds are nearly perfect, SST's are very warm, all we need is one flare up of convection, then all eyes on the Gulf. Cyclone1 (13:27 UTC -1/08/2007)
 * Convection flaring up nicely, now. Cyclone1 (14:21 UTC -1/08/2007)
 * Recon is flying out tomorrow. (What? Cyclone1, you're seeing things!!) Nope, it's true. This will most likely be 90L later today. Cyclone1 (15:45 UTC -1/08/2007)


 * I was just saying because the GFS develops it basically on land, whereas the CMC moves it over florida before blowing it up into a hurricane, which is the scenario I'd prefer. I doubt this will be a TD if it moves onto land like the models predict. -Winter123 18:42, 1 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Too early to make a judgment on this one. It's definately an area to watch. Right now, though it doesn't even have a low pressure center. -- SkyFury 21:13, 1 August 2007 (UTC)

Gone. Cyclone1 (22:20 UTC -4/08/2007)


 * Yeah, I never did get what the NHC was so excited about. Early on, I thought it might have had a chance, but I wrote it off a couple of days ago. -- SkyFury 03:23, 5 August 2007 (UTC)

AoI: North of Bermuda
What the frick is this? We appear to have a very intense ball of deep convection in the middle of nowhere. It doesn't even really show up on the surface analysis. Logic wants to tell me it's nothing, but that's a lot of bright colors for an aimless thunderhead. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC)


 * ?!?!?!?!?! It looks like it just blew up from the end of a front under extreme shear and created a favorable upper level environment for itself. It looks like it already has a broad LLC because it was part of a front, and again, all shear is passing north of it (It's way up over Northern Vermont...) as it somehow blew up an upper level High over itself. Could it be an out-of-nowhere Dean? Maybe this year WILL be interesting after all! :D
 * Great catch by the way! -Winter123 05:57, 10 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Hmm... that's way cool! First of all, an AoI I didn't declare (wtf?!) and, it came from ntohing! Chances are likely low, but man, it is impressive. Cyclone1 (14:17 UTC -10/08/2007)
 * GODDANGIT! All the fun stuff happens when I'm away! But, yeah, not only does the NHC seem completely oblivious to it, but it's there, it's strong, and I think it's rotating. This one might have a shot.
 * Now, can someone please tell me how Chantal was? 68.100.190.56
 * Aw, it's nowhere to be seen anymore? Gone as quickly as it came up/. -Winter123 18:53, 10 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Oh it's there, but the shear tore it apart and scattered its remains across the north Atlantic. -- SkyFury 21:45, 10 August 2007 (UTC)

Just a blob. Gone, likely not coming back. Cyclone1 (22:03 UTC -10/08/2007)


 * That's one wierd looking blob. Not looking like much now, but still, it should be dying, right? (Not trying to imply anything). It's not going to develop, but it's not going away either... 68.100.190.56

AoI: East Carribean
Interesting little blob in the Carib here. A few (that means multiple) global models develop this sucker. Conditions are good and getting better ahead of it. Could be a Gulf storm. Thoughts? Cyclone1 (01:59 UTC -9/08/2007)


 * Thoughts- In a normal season I'd say it's a no-brainer this will develop. Almost no shear and great convection. But it's 2007 so right when you think it's about to be named it'll just go 'poof' and blue sky is all that will be left -Winter123 04:49, 9 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Haha, excellent point. Joe Bastardi expects a tropical storm at least, and the EURO, CMC, and NOGAPS models all develop it. Maybe it'll be like TS Bret in 05, but stronger and further north. Cyclone1 (21:39 UTC -9/08/2007)


 * Are you talking about the thing near Jamaica? It is FAR too early to say anything with regards to this one. Predicting it to be a tropical storm is like predicting a fetus to grow into the man that finds a cure for cancer. -- SkyFury 03:16, 10 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Apparently, the NHC seems to really like this fetus. It puts it as a "High-amplitude tropical wave" (just like the one off of Africa), and only recently took it off of the development page. It's been pretty consistent with it's doings, though, so I think, a day later, it is only SOMEWHAT too early to say something about this one (no offense). 68.100.190.56

The 12Z NAM shows a well established tropical storm moving into the Gulf soon. I know, I know, it's the NAM, which is less reliable than the CMC, but still it's interesting. Slow development means just that....sloooow development. Cyclone1 (16:59 UTC -11/08/2007)


 * Convection has significantly increased over the past six hours, but it still doesn't have a low pressure center associated with it. -- SkyFury 02:27, 12 August 2007 (UTC)

- I put this in because it tracked into the gulf before developing. 68-100-190-56 11:16, 15 August 2007 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Yep. Located in the Yucatan Strait at the moment. Looks very marginal; but it does seem to be consolidating more and more. We'll see what the 10:30 advisory says about it. Cainer91 14:32, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Could Erin come out from this one? RoswellAtup 14:40, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, it's tough to say right now, but it does have several things going for it: the ULL that was inhibiting development is moving away, shear is low, and SST's are practically boiling. However, right now it's just a trough of low pressure: no LLC or anything, just an area of convection. However, if it moves slowly enough, it is possible that it could develop. Cainer91 14:55, 13 August 2007 (UTC)
 * I'm saying that this needs to be watched closer than TD4 right now. WE could get TD5 from this before all is said and done. Cyclone1 (16:58 UTC -13/08/2007)

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. From the TWO. Could we get 2 depressions today?! Cyclone1 (17:01 UTC -13/08/2007)


 * The Atlantic has awakened. If this thing wants to come up through the Panhandle and into Georgia, I'd welcome it. We desperately need some cooling off down here. -- SkyFury 20:29, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Sorry Eric, it's a Texan. Cyclone1 (20:49 UTC -13/08/2007)


 * NRL has 91L almost as strong as Tropical Depression Four: 30 knots and 1006 mbars. But, there is literally one thunderstorm, so it's not a tropical depression yet. But watch out when the convection does start to build. Cainer91 02:12, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It's sort of runnin' outta water. The Gulf Coast isn't that far. Cyclone1 seems to think it's headed to Texas, but it lookes to me like it's going north. -- 24.98.83.29 02:35, 14 August 2007 (UTC)

TCFA issued. Jake52 My talk 06:06, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * What's a TCFA? RoswellAtup 07:21, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Most, if not all of the models bring it to Texas, it's not just me. Cyclone1 (11:45 UTC -14/08/2007)


 * It's looking very good, and there's no doubt in my mind that it will be upgraded to Tropical Depression Five at the 5:30 update. Thunderstorm activity is consolidating, it's moving slow enough, and the SST's and shear are perfect. There isn't really anything to stop it. Lucky that it only has a couple of days to intensify. Cainer91 15:54, 14 August 2007 (UTC)

Yeah, the latest TWO, says a TD may be forming. Cyclone1 (16:33 UTC -14/08/2007)
 * Well in the gulf these couple of days can be enough to create a pretty potent storm, or even a hurricane. -- WmE 18:04, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I would be pretty surprised if this thing becomes a hurricane. I see a 45-50 knot Tropical Storm Erin crossing the Panhandle in three or four days. -- SkyFury 18:45, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It's going towards Texas. I'd say a landfall south of Houston as a moderate TS. Cyclone1 (22:01 UTC -14/08/2007)


 * I'm more inclined to say Louisiana, say anywhere from Sabine Pass to Grand Chenier. I agree with you on probable intensity (40-50 knots). Its organization continues to improve. I would not be surprised to see it classified as Tropical Depression Five by the 11pm advisory period. It sure looks the part. -- SkyFury 23:55, 14 August 2007 (UTC)

05L.NONAME

 * Well, according to NRL, we now have Tropical Depression Five. And, what a cute little ball of convection it has! I expect Erin by at least 5:30 PM tomorrow. Cainer91 02:00, 15 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Reminds me of Bonnie, but going the other way. Cyclone1 (02:13 UTC -15/08/2007)

Tropical Depression Five
Offical. Tropical Storm Watches issued. Cyclone1 (02:37 UTC -15/08/2007)


 * Just call me Carnac ;). Cyclone1, I believe you called for TD Four at an 11pm advisory, but that didn't happen until later. I called it spot on. Just a mild ego trip, please excuse me ;). Texas! Why Texas? We need the rain up here in the southeast, they don't need another drop down there. We've been in 100-degree heat for the past week and the tropics aren't helping. -- SkyFury 03:18, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Mother Nature is not being kind to the southern U.S. this year. Bob rulz 03:28, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * This is not the kind of tropical activity the world needs (Flossie, Dean, 05L [Erin], and Sepat). 68-100-190-56 10:52, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * LOL Eric. The reason I say Texas is because... well, the big cone that the NHC makes... it's pointing towards Texas. I would LOVE a nice TD for the southeast, but it's just not in the cards. Cyclone1 (14:09 UTC -15/08/2007)


 * No, I was asking, lightheartedly, why the storm was going to Texas and not to the Panhandle. On another note, I'm sorry, I have a hard time buying the recon plane's report and I think NHC does too. It looks like a 30 kt depression that's about to become a storm, not a disorganized thing that's barely a tropical cyclone. -- SkyFury 15:13, 15 August 2007 (UTC)

Forecast is 45 mph around Corpus Christi (one of the worst affected areas in Texas's anti-drought). It might actually be almost a good (not to climatology) thing if Dean took an unexpected northerly turn straight through the ridge. I went to Dulles yesterday and the dust was worse than it is on the Serengeti. It would be great if they had a system for pumping Texas water to the rest of the country. 68-100-190-56 15:24, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflicts! Can't get a word in edgewise!) I don't know why it's going towards Texas, it just is. Sorry if my response didn't seem lioghthearted, it was meant to be. Cyclone1 (15:28 UTC -15/08/2007)


 * -Conflicts? Nothing going on here that I can see :) 68-100-190-56 15:32, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Edit conflicts are when two people try to post at the same time, the second poster gets the cold shoulder and has to post again. Cyclone1 (15:34 UTC -15/08/2007)


 * No, I meant I couldn't see it. Literally. Probably because I haven't been looking at the times *can't see past his own nose without thinking about something else :). (It was kind of subtle, but it was also a reference to TCs, as in, "there's nothing going on out there). And now look at this, there's these two (sorry, THREE) whole posts of complete nothingness. Should we delete them? 68-100-190-56 15:39, 15 August 2007 (UTC)

Nah they're fine. Cyclone1 (15:45 UTC -15/08/2007)

Tropical Storm Erin
10:15 (CDT) update brings it to a tropical storm! Cyclone1 (15:28 UTC -15/08/2007)


 * That fast? That's six hours early. Same thing with Dean, it shouldn't be 60 mph right now either. Well, any news is good news except for Texas. 68-100-190-56 15:31, 15 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, that fast. Recon found TS winds right after the Adv was issued. Cyclone1 (15:33 UTC -15/08/2007)
 * Erin looks like it may curve more northwestward soon. Cyclone1 (15:52 UTC -15/08/2007)
 * Mmm? What sat pictures do you derive this from? 68-100-190-56 15:58, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Meh, looking at it again I think I'm wrong. Cyclone1 (16:24 UTC -15/08/2007)


 * Texas really doesn't need this. It'll cool them off but many rivers in Texas remain above flood stage. -- SkyFury 21:08, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I think the figure is around half, though I'm probably off by about 25% either way. Anyway, this season is beginning to get evil. 68-100-190-56 21:40, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The tropics'll do that to you. And besides, flooding could turn out to be minimal, we don't really know. And Dean could become big in the Caribbean and not greatly affect land areas. 05's Emily certainly knocked Mexico around, but it wasn't exactly guilty of genocide. It's August and the active cycle hasn't gone away. When the tropics are hot, you're going to have threats like this. -- SkyFury 23:55, 15 August 2007 (UTC)

Hits with 40- 43 mph winds. Look at that on the sat pictures, almost like a non-trop MCS. Texas might be in for it. Hope this isn't another Allison (I give it a 4% chance of being one). 68-100-190-56 02:56, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Sat is at 0 hours to landfall. I just discovered this, but there it is, makin' landfall on Texas with winds of up to 40 mph. It's organized as well. This'll make hell for Southern and Western Texas, not to mention Oklahoma. 68-100-190-56 11:13, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Last advisory written. Cyclone1 (14:39 UTC -16/08/2007)
 * Erin sure doesn't want to be forgotten, it's flooding out Texas. Cyclone1 (15:17 UTC -17/08/2007)

"It's sort of runnin' outta water. The Gulf Coast isn't that far. Cyclone1 seems to think it's headed to Texas, but it looks to me like it's going north. -- 24.98.83.29 02:35, 14 August 2007 (UTC)" -- Hehehe. Sorry, I love being right. First time since Beryl I've been right about landfall before a storm was classified. Cyclone1 (15:24 UTC -17/08/2007)

Erin now has more advisories from the HPC than the NHC! What's the record on how long the HPC has tracked a storm once it made landfall? 4.154.7.251 01:04, 19 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I think its 13 days. Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. Cyclone1 (03:51 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * Last advisory issued by the HPC. It's no longer a tropical depression, but heavy rains continue from Oklahoma into Missouri and Arkansas; 2 people were killed today and 3 remain missing. Bob rulz 07:11, 20 August 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Another Day, Another (African) Wave
Excuse the length of the title, but it does appear another wave is ready to come off of the coast, and not only that, but a few models develop an Invest-equivalent low, with practically all of them putting something in the Central Atlantic. I'm not exactly sure if this is really that big, but the convection on land does look promising. 68-100-190-56 13:36, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't see anything of interest out there, but if there is a low with any convection with it and the conditions are as good a NHC is saying they are for Dean, then I could see something forming. -- SkyFury 15:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * This might just be a problem with the models, but I'm not sure (every single one develops it into at least a low, not necessarily closed off, but a low), since it would be quite a coincidence. I would, however, suspect than anything there would have somewhat of a chance of forming. 68-100-190-56 15:29, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * GFS turns it into a hurricane after Dean's second landfall. Link. 68-100-190-56 11:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Doesn't seem too likely, it develops it at a record low latitude. Cyclone1 (14:45 UTC -16/08/2007)

It doesn't, does it? But other models develop it higher. I'm not sure the low would track that far south anyway. It certainly is possible though. 68-100-190-56 16:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * CMC runs it into Georgia/Carolinas as a hurricane, developing much higher. Still can't figure out what it's developing though. 68-100-190-56 17:21, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

I'm going to make a few enters here so that the next post will stand out, ok?

That's better

Anyway, the wave is now looking pretty nice, with the low still mostly separate. It's been looking good for a while now, but I haven't been paying attention. CMC predicts a cyclone from the low and the wave, but the wave shows now signs of development besides impressive convection, so I'm not sure what kind of drugs it's on this time. 68-100-190-56 21:23, 17 August 2007 (UTC)

...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE E ATLC ALONG 32W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE SURROUNDING LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...ESPECIALLY FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 28W-37W. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL NEAR THIS CIRCULATION WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR 16N32W. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SRN PORTION OF THE AXIS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 24W-34W...WHICH MAY BE MORE ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE S OF THE ITCZ.

They're wrong about the convection thing, by the way. IP 01:05, 18 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Mention in the TWO. Looks like nothing. Cyclone1 (21:02 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW NEAR BARBADOS APPEARS UNLIKELY. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Hmm.. latest TWO is more interesing. Cyclone1 (21:35 UTC -19/08/2007)


 * Hmm. That's slightly disconcerting. If that countinues, it will probably be more the lack of information than any bad news. It could develop, it could be nothing. There's just no way to know. We just have to wait and see. -- SkyFury 22:14, 19 August 2007 (UTC)