Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC Best Track for last year is out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

November
Has begun, but aside from Krosa, WPac is quiet right now. However, there could be a few storms following up behind Krosa if the GFS forecast turns out to be correct. Ryan1000 00:24, November 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * The WPAC is going nuts. I will not be surprised if all those storms become typhoons. For November, I think the WPAC will produce 5 tropical storms, 5 severe tropical storms, 4 typhoons, 1 super typhoon, and an ACE of 51. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:20, November 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * My predictions: 3 tropical storms, 2 severe tropical storms, 2 typhoons, and 0 super typhoons. The WPac should quiet down a little from here on out. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 01:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Behind Krosa, we have a new invest. It has a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:53, November 2, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 30W (Wilma)
And now this is 30W. This will probably become Tropical Storm Haiyan as it moves into the Philipines over the next day or two, causing some flooding rains. Hopefully it doesn't become the catastrophe Washi was in December 2011. Ryan1000 13:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure which one will become Haiyan first, 30W or 31W? The winner will get the name "Haiyan", while the loser gets the name "Podul". Anyway, I think this storm could bring lots of flooding to the Phillippines. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 19:41, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * This will do more effects in Vietnam than the Phillippines imo.Allanjeffs 21:02, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, the Philippines should still accordingly plan for this system. As for this depression itself, the JMA has its intensity at 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg) and the JTWC has its intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). The JTWC predicts a break in our typhoon streak, taking the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 75 knots (85 mph). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:03, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * This isn't on the JMA for some reason. Anyway, PAGASA has named 30W Wilma. The latest JTWC update weakens 30W (Wilma) to 25 kts (1-min) and has it just inland Mindanao. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:08, November 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Tropical Depression 30W will likely remain weak and break our typhoon streak. Both the JMA and the JTWC have the depression at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained winds), with a pressure estimate of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) per the JMA. Gusts are estimated to be at 40 knots (45 mph) per the JTWC. The JMA's tentative forecast brings the depression up to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /1000 mbar (hPa), whereas the JTWC is slightly more intense on the system. They: A.) forecast another Philippine landfall near Puerto Princesa, B.) take the depression to 60 knots (70 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /75 knot (85 mph) gusts, C.) predict a Vietnam landfall north of Ho Chi Minh City, D.) emerge it into the Gulf of Thailand, E.) forecast a third landfall over extreme southwestern Thailand, and F.) bring it into the Bay of Benegal with 25 knot (30 mph) winds (1-minute sustained winds) /35 knot (40 mph) gusts. If Tropical Depression 30W can do all of that, I will be very surprised. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:19, November 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the forecast track is very weird. I'll be extremely surprised if this depression could do all that. Anyway, I think we will see Podul from this, although it will probably be a weakling and break the crazy typhoon streak. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 03:11, November 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * This depression might not get as strong as before. The JMA has raised the system's pressure to 1006 mbar (hPa), and the JTWC has lowered their peak forecast to 55 knots (65 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph). Haiyan might significantly overshadow whatever Tropical Depression 30W does. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:12, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * This storm actually does have a chance of making it into the Bay of Bengal after making landfall in Southern Vietnam, but it'll have to hold itself intact (which won't hapen if it makes landfall as far north as they're expecting). Ryan1000 08:29, November 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, Tropical Depression 30W has not gotten any stronger, and it might not get named at the rate its going. Even the JTWC kills it over southern Vietnam. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:10, November 6, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 30W
And it dissipated. It did not even make it to the Vietnam. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:46, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * JTWC briefly had this at minimal TS strength for a single advisory a while ago, so this may or may not have broken the JTWC major typhoon streak. Depends on whether or not you count storms that were never named by the JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:18, November 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Actually, this depression is still active as a remnant low. Today, it crossed into the NIO. More information can be found here. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:17, November 8, 2013 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
Our unlucky 13th typhoon could form from this invest. The JTWC gives this system a low chance of becoming tropical in the next 24 hours, but there is a big chance another well-organized tropical cyclone could come from this. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:52, November 2, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 31W
Yes Andrew, this one could be a scary storm for the Philipines in the future. . I have the feeling Typhoon Podul could be very reminicent of Durian of 2006, hopefully everyone gets out before this one hits. Ryan1000 13:00, November 3, 2013 (UTC)

This one is suppose to be a cat 4 or 5 when it hits the Philippines hopes  it doesn`t reach that strength or it could be a disaster like Bopha.Allanjeffs 19:01, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think a better comparison to this storm would be Durian in 2006, which had the same general forecast path at this time in it's life. Durian wasn't as bad as Bopha, but 155 mph winds, hundreds of deaths, and billions of dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. I have a feeling this storm (Podul, assuming 30W gets named first, if not Haiyan), could be almost an exact repeat of Durian in track and intensity, though hopefully causing less death and destruction. Ryan1000 19:45, November 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * This storm is looking scary in the long run. The Philippines could be attacked by future Podul (or maybe Haiyan?) by Friday as a huge typhoon, and we could even see a re-Bopha from this. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 20:06, November 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looking at the JTWC forecast track, this depression is poised to cause significant impact in the Philippines and likely might even rival Utor's effects. Both the JMA and JTWC have this depression's winds at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained) and the pressure is estimated to be at 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). I do not know what this depression will do, but if we get another Bopha or Durian, it could get extremely nasty out there. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:08, November 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Haiyan
Now a 35-kt (10-min and 1-min) TS per both the JMA and JTWC, with a pressure of 1002 mbar per the JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:10, November 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like this one stole what would've been TD 30's name. Either way, the Philipines better watch out. Ryan1000 03:20, November 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now a typhoon by the JTWC. I have a bad feeling about this...rapid intensification is taking hold as we speak. Ryan1000 15:08, November 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haiyan is starting to rapidly deepen. It is now at 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg) per the JMA and at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /70 knot (80 mph) gusts per the JTWC. Ryan, Haiyan is still a tropical storm per the JTWC, but its gusts are of typhoon intensity. Things are looking real nasty in the next few days. The JMA crashes Haiyan over the Philippines with winds of 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 955 mbar (hPa), while the JTWC shows a dangerous 130 knot (150 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) super typhoon with gusts of 160 knots (185 mph). The Philippines need to get ready for this monster right now! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:31, November 4, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan
Haiyan is taking off fast! The JMA has bumped the storm up to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg), while the JTWC has declared our sixteenth typhoon of the year by their standards (winds of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) gusting to 80 knots (90 mph)). The JMA now smashes Haiyan into the Philippines as an 80 knot (90 mph) (10-minute sustained winds), 945 mbar (hPa) typhoon, while the JTWC still foresees a 130 knot (150 mph) super typhoon over the Philippines in ~72 hours with gusts of 160 knots (185 mph). Haiyan is really becoming reminiscent of Typhoon Durian of 2006. If this storm pulls a Chebi (2006)-type intensification, that would be horrendous. Let's hope for the best for the sake of all the Philippine citizens. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:09, November 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Holy shit! This storm is really starting to take off! I feel really bad for the Philippines, as once it strikes there, it could cause LOADS of devastation. Here comes a re-Durian or re-Bopha! The Philippines need to prepare now, as it could become very destructive. I think we should pray for them... —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 03:15, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrew, Bopha was a typhoon briefly per the JTWC's operational best track, but it got downgraded to a TS shortly afterwards. However, it'll be a typhoon by both the JMA and JTWC very soon. A recap fact from October in the Western Pacific this year was there were 7 typhoons in October this year, beating the former record of 6 in 1989. God help the folks in the Philippines, this'll get very bad in the coming days...Ryan1000 08:22, November 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haiyan is almost there. It is now at 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg) per the JMA, while the JTWC intensity remains the same since my previous post. Although the JMA still forecasts the same landfall strength as before, the JTWC has downgraded their forecast to 125 knots (145 mph)/145 knot (165 mph) gusts. This may mean Haiyan could be weaker than it was previously forecast to be, unless it bombs out like Chebi and Xangsane in 2006 did. In reply to Ryan's post, I am surprised the typhoon record for October was broken, and it shows a sharp contrast to the five typhoons observed during the entire January-September period (Soulik, Utor, Man-yi, Usagi, and Wutip)! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, November 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Goes to show early-season activity has nothing to do with the peak, which, in this basin's case, is October. Forecast to run through the islands as a 150 mph storm. Ryan1000 17:48, November 5, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)
BAM! Haiyan has exploded! Per the JMA, the system is now an 80 knot (90 mph, 150 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds), 955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) monster typhoon! For the first time since 2001, we got a streak of eight "official" typhoons! And per the JTWC, Haiyan is at 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /130 knot (150 mph) gusts, making it our seventh straight "major" typhoon and the tenth of the season! The JMA shows an insanely violent typhoon bearing down on the Philippines, with an intensity of 105 knots (120 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /920 mbar (hPa). And the JTWC forecasts a 140 knot (160 mph) super typhoon (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 170 knots (195 mph)!!! The Philippines need to get prepared right now! Haiyan is becoming a monster as we speak! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:08, November 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Super typhoon already. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:25, November 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think we're looking at a potentially landfalling category 5. God help them...Ryan1000 05:25, November 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * And now it's a 160 mph category 5 super typhoon. Forecast to get to 165 mph before running right into the Philipines as a 155 mph storm tomorrow evening or Friday morning. This could get really ugly...Ryan1000 15:05, November 6, 2013 (UTC)

PAGASA has now named this Yolanda. Ryan1000 18:41, November 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now at 150 kts (1-min) per the JTWC and 115 kts (10-min)/905 mbar per the JMA. The JMA forecast calls for the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide since Megi '10, with 125-kt (10-min) winds and a pressure of 895 mbar. This is unreal. Think Bopha, except even stronger and somewhat farther north. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:04, November 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * The peak gusts from JMA are 175 knots (200 mph), and 895 is terrifying for a storm this immense. The JMA's track forecast takes it right through the heart of the islands, with several thousand people in it's path. Bopha hit a more populated and less prepared area than this storm, so it might not be as bad as Bopha was, but this could easily cause as much destruction (although hopefully less deaths) as Durian back in 2006. Ryan1000 20:32, November 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * I never expected this at all from Haiyan. We now have our fifth Category 5 storm of 2013 worldwide, and Haiyan shares the throne with Lekima as the season's strongest storm. Fortunately, the JTWC does not expect any more intensification, but Haiyan is clearly posing a very serious threat for the Philippines. Palau has already gotten a beating from this monster typhoon. For comparison, Haiyan's ten-minute sustained winds are tied with Lekima for the highest in the WPAC since Megi. Combined with Kiko's upgrade to a hurricane in the EPAC, Haiyan is clearly defing 2013's logic in a negative way. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:55, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JMA has reeled back their earlier prediction of a sub-900 mbar storm, but their forecast still takes Haiyan right to the brink at 120 kts (10-min) and 900 mbar. Both the JMA and the JTWC keep Haiyan's present intensity steady, so it might have already peaked. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:21, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * And Andrew, 2013 seems to have changed its logic for the WPAC. 2013's WPAC logic now seems to call for typhoon after powerful-ass typhoon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:24, November 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * The models are forecasting another typhoon after this one,looks like the Philippines will not catch a break will pray for them.Btw this storm looks stunning can`t decide which one is more beautiful this one or Phaillin.Allanjeffs 04:04, November 7, 2013 (UTC)

Both Phailin and this storm look beautiful, but at least with Phailin it didn't cause that much damage or deaths in India due to the evacuation orders before it. The Philipines almost never have a typhoon season with a happy ending, I have a feeling this will be the unlucky one to hit the islands this year. Ryan1000 11:56, November 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Evacuations (pre-emptive and forced) has been implemented here in the Philippines since yesterday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:40, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Anonymous 2.0, last time I checked, it was generally considered impolite to edit another user's comments without their permission. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:56, November 7, 2013 (UTC)

Now up to 165 kt and obviously a very serious threat to the Philippines now. Kiewii! 16:48, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Up further to 170 kt... this HOPEFULLY should be its peak intensity. Kiewii! 20:05, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * This storm is a total boss. 170kts is the world record for reliable intensity. Only 895mb according to JMA, should be much lower. It's been at T8.0 for nearly 18 hours now. I though Phailin was the storm of 2013....looks like I was wrong. Yqt1001 (talk) 20:47, November 7, 2013 (UTC)


 *  I just came from school and see that Haiyan is the most beautiful typhoon I have ever seen.The eyewall is total perfection.I am amazed and that it broke the devorak scale wow.I am praying for the Phillippines I hope they are prepare.IMO is the strongest cyclone we have ever observe,even stronger than Tip.Monica reach T 8.0 right? bus she wasn`t as espectacular as Haiyan.Allanjeffs 20:46, November 7, 2013 (UTC)

How incredible. Yes, the JTWC did estimate the winds of Haiyan peaked at 195 mph, making it (by windspeed) the strongest tropical cyclone on record, stronger even than Tip, Allen, and Camille. Tom Skilling from WGN Chicago just said there has been a 858 mbar pressure from Haiyan estimated by Sattelite Imagery. If that is confirmed, Haiyan will smash Tip's record in 1979 as the strongest tropical cyclone in recorded history. While it's awe-inspiring to see such an incredible storm like this, Haiyan could be a catastrophic storm for the Philippine city of Tacloban, and Matarinao Bay will see at least 15-17 feet of storm surge. This could be a catastrophic storm for the islands, hopefully it's not as severe as Bopha was last year. Ryan1000 21:37, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pardon my French, but holy shit... I thought Haiyan was done strengthening when it evened out at 905 mbar. I did not expect resumed strengthening, especially not to a world-record 170 kts (1-min) per the JTWC. I'd be thrilled if a storm of Haiyan's breathtaking intensity was roaming the open water, but no, Haiyan HAS to plow into the Philippines at or near peak strength. I was horrified when I saw the updates from the JMA and JTWC. First 125-kt (10-min) storm since Megi, and first sub-900 mbar cyclone worldwide since Megi as well. A catastrophe is unfolding as we speak. I honestly think that the effects from Haiyan will exceed or perhaps even dwarf those of Bopha. I'm usually not religious enough to word it like this, but God help them... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:57, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * FWIW, my mom commented that the name Haiyan sounds like "high-end," which it certainly is. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:02, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * It did Dylan, according to Dr Master's latest blog post (just a few minutes ago), Haiyan crashed into the islands with 195 mph winds, making it the strongest landfalling tropical cyclone in recorded history. The city of Guiuan recorded winds of category 2 strength before contact with the city was shut down. This storm could leave unimaginable devastation in it's wake. Hopefully everyone is out of harm's way. Ryan1000 23:05, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * NOW THE STRONGEST TYPHOON FOR ABOUT 20 YEARS... WHAT THE HECKLE?!?! THIS IS MADNESS, COMPLETE MDNESS!! I hope this typhoon weakens so the Phillipines does not see so much sadness in the city! SPREAD THE HOPE ACCROSS THE PHILLIPINES, HOPEFULLY HAYAN WON'T BE AS POWERFUL AS EXPECTED!! Anyway, Tippy Tip of the 70s? Wilma 2005?  POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 23:16, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Too late Liz, Haiyan has already made landfall :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:20, November 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * I agree, Liz. This is beyond insane. The JMA still has Haiyan's pressure at 895 mbar (hPa; 26.43 inHg). Dylan, Haiyan means petrel in Chinese. As for the typhoon, its ten-minute sustained wind reading of 125 knots (145 mph, 230 km/h) is the second strongest on record in the entire JMA database, after Tip and tied with Bess '82 and Megi. It's one-minute winds are fourth highest ever, after Nancy '61, Violet '61, and Joan '59. But none of those readings are official. Pray the Philippines survive this unreal monster. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:26, November 7, 2013 (UTC)

The city of Taclopan is getting raked by the northern eyewall as we speak, possibly could see 25-30 feet of storm surge and god knows how much rain and wind. Even using the Dvorak Technique, Haiyan's pressure and winds are too high to accurately measure. They're at least 195 mph, but could be as high as 200 mph and the pressure could easily be less than Tip's of 1979. The problem with Haiyan, unlike the storms you mentioned before Andrew, is it's hitting the islands at maximum intensity. At least Tip and Nancy and the others weakened a bit before making landfall, unlike Haiyan. While it's inevitable this storm will flatten entire towns and cities, hopefully everyone is safe so we don't see a Bopha or Washi-like death toll. Keep the folks in the Philippines in your prayers, they'll have a long and difficult road to recovery after Haiyan. Ryan1000 23:32, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Ryan, according to @TropicalTidbits on Twitter, the Dvorak reading of Haiyan's intensity is at 8.1. 8.1 on a scale that only goes up to 8.0. *shudders*
 * And why are you saying it's inevitable that Haiyan won't flatten entire towns? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:38, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * My bad, I typed it wrong. Fixed. And yeah, 8.1 out of 8 breaks the scale. And see this video. You can hardly hear anything it's so immense... Ryan1000 23:39, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * No worries. And McAfee won't let me, it's coming up red :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:44, November 7, 2013 (UTC)

Sorry, the video was a broken link. I have this though. Here's what Haiyan did to Palau, note this isn't on the main Philipines yet, but still that's utterly catastrophic. UPDATE:God damn, that's a really bad storm surge. (Note:that's live from tacloban, they're far from finished with this thing). Ryan1000 23:48, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Just listen to the howl of the wind in this Instagram video of Haiyan's wrath in Tacloban City... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:15, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * And also this video of storm surge flooding in Tacloban. I want to cry right now, this storm is just too much... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:22, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Ah, the first video was what I was trying to post. The only thing I can hope for now is that everyone is out of harm's way. Tablocan already got wrecked by this storm, but this will be unbearable if the death toll matches that of Washi or Bopha. Ryan1000 00:25, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Holy damn. This storm has become f**king INSANE! I am very surprised of what happened to Haiyan since I last posted. Get ready for an essay. This storm is so goddamn unreal. I can't believe we have a  195 mph  monster making landfall in the Philippines!! This is certainly the strongest storm I ever tracked, and is probably one of THE STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONES IN WORLD HISTORY!!! This storm is so intense that it can flatten entire towns and cities in the Philippines, and cause thousands of deaths! I can't believe it broke the Dvorak scale! God, this storm might even surpass Typhoon Tip's record. I never thought 2013 can produce a storm so powerful! After going through most of the year with mostly weakling TS storms and weak hurricanes in the northern hemisphere, the WPac has really gone insane! I thought Lekima would become the strongest storm of 2013 overall, but suddenly, SUPERSTORM HAIYAN appears, becoming one of the strongest storms in world history and about to completely destroy lots of towns in the Philippines! Gosh, this is just...UNREAL!! I really can't believe my eyes. It's storm surge and damage so far are also insane. This is like watching something out of a movie! I believe this storm could become more destructive than even Washi and Bopha. This might even become one of the most devastating storms in Philippine history, and the strongest storm to make landfall in the Philippines on record! Well, just wait until the far future. Storms like Haiyan could become a regular occurrence by 2050 I think. By then, sea level rise caused by global warming could make the storm surges much bigger, and we might even see typhoons as strong as 225 mph/840 mbar! If I become a very old person still tracking storms in 2075, I might track storms that are much stronger than Haiyan! I think we should start referring this storm as Superstorm Haiyan, since it's the WPac version of Superstorm Sandy IMO. Again, this is absolutely unreal. I don't think the Philippines will make it out safe, instead it could cause very epic devastation and they might have a very long road of recovery to come. It's already causing mass flooding in Tacloban, and it could become EXTREMELY devastating once all is said and done. God, help them...—<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 00:31, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dylan, your videos are really sad. Signal Number 4 has been raised for almost all of the Philippines. Palau has also gotten a severe beating from this monster. This is like watching Bopha and Sandy again to a stronger extent. And in reply to Steven, a better name for Haiyan than "Superstorm Haiyan" or "Typhoon Yolanda" would be what I call some storms from a hypothetical typhoon season of mine, Nightmare on Typhoon Lane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:43, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * There's more to come, Andrew. New updates are in from the JMA and JTWC. The JMA does not report a change from Haiyan's landfall intensity (o_o), but the JTWC does report weakening... to 160 kts. Um... yay? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:26, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Considering what the Philippines are handling, any weakening is good news right now. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Oh I know it's better than nothing, but 160 kts will still obliterate well-built structures. I'm honestly not sure what difference there is in structural damage between a 160-knot or 170-knot storm. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:30, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Based on this article, Haiyan is paying the price of being an extraordinarily strong landfalling tropical cyclone. The typhoon is so large in size clouds stretching over 1,850 kilometres (1,150 miles) from the center and are affecting over two-thirds of the Philippines as I speak. Tens of thousands of citizens have prepared for Haiyan. However, three fatalities have already occurred, which includes a one-year-old infant and a woman who suffered the unlucky fate of being struck with a coconut tree in Cebu. PAGASA expects Yolanda (Haiyan) to remain a super typhoon over the entire Philippine archipelago. This could spell doom. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:42, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * For a storm of this strength, I can't believe that the pressure is only 895 mbars. It has to be much lower than that, I know it. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:11, November 8, 2013 (UTC)

STILL at 125 kt (10-min)/895 mbar per the JMA... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:44, November 8, 2013 (UTC)

This is stronger or was stronger than 895 it look perfect when it was at peak intensity and looks so much better than Megi and if base on pressure Megi will be stronger -_- which is not true.It probably peak near Tip lever or it was stronger than Tip but we will never know for sure.Anyways right now they are three deads and sadly the number is expect to climb.This was such a storm I am going to pray for the Philippines.Like they say Perfection comes with a price.Yolanda is so going to be retire not sure of Haiyan depends on the deads and they are only three hope it stay like that.Allanjeffs 05:17, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JMA has finally weakened Haiyan, to 105 kt (10-min)/920 mbar. No word from the JTWC yet. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 07:36, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Winds have fallen to 165 mph overnight, but it's still incredibly strong. However, it seems to have done it's damage over the islands already. From here on out, conditions over the islands should improve. Next up is Vietnam, where Haiyan is expected to be a category 2 at landfall. Ryan1000 11:09, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * The JMA expect Haiyan to maintain its intensity throughout the South China Sea. This may not be good for Vietnam, next on the typhoon's devastation list. Meteorologically speaking, the reason Haiyan got so strong was because an ERC failed to happen. I have no idea how strong this typhoon really is, but it may have been stronger than even Tip. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:57, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Because it was annular last night briefly, it didn't undergo an ERC, but it was god knows how strong when it hit. They can only estimate the winds from the damage it caused, no weather instrument would be able to record how powerful the storm was because it would've been destroyed at the peak of Haiyan's wrath last night. Here's an image of what the palm trees looked like last night. Ryan1000 13:48, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 90 kts (10-min)/940 mbar per the JMA, and finally below Category 5 intensity per the JTWC, at 135 kts. However, the death toll is up to 56 :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:22, November 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Oh, and 220 mph wind gusts were reported. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:23, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, Haiyan is starting to cascade downwards. The typhoon is now at 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /940 mbar (hPa; 27.78 inHg) per the JMA and 125 knots (145 mph, 230 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) /150 knot (175 mph) gusts per the JTWC. The JMA expects Haiyan's pressure to drop to 935 mbar (hPa) before it smashes into Vietnam, whereas the JTWC predicts more weakening before landfall. Twenty deaths have been reported in the Philippines from a church collapse. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:07, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * I turn my back for a week and I see a MONSTER!!! :O
 * this is just awful
 * Am I dreaming? I hope I am.leeboy100 (talk) 23:49, November 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Leeboy, your not dreaming. This is REALLY happening for real! I'm still surprised by how strong it got at peak intensity, it was one of the strongest storms on record! Anyway, the death toll could possibly start exploding, and I wouldn't be surprised if it caused 1,000+ deaths in the Philippines. Next up on Haiyan's devastation list: Vietnam. I really do think this typhoon is a big THRILLER! It's the Nightmare on Typhoon Lane! —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 00:56, November 9, 2013

Steve, not only hayan is a thriller but is going BEZERK right now (Eminem's new song?) anyway this was on itv news and I saw the report on the news- if I were in this typhoon I would not know what to so. Complete nightmare. I also heard that the Philippine Red Cross is also providing assistance too. HAYAN WEAKEN DOWN BEFORE YOU GET TO THE PHILIPPINES! Worse than Katrina? Aaahhhhhhh!!!! POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 01:06, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * *facepalm* If only you could realize that Haiyan is past the Philippines...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:58, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Berzerk isn't really his new song, since it's been out for a few months already. He already has newer songs out titled "Survival", "Rap God", and "The Monster", which features Rihanna. I think all of those songs, including Berzerk, are awesome!  Anyway, Haiyan shouldn't be worse than Katrina. And it also already got to the Philippines, and is now in the South China Sea. The Philippines must have really been devastated by this monster, and again, I wouldn't be surprised if it caused 1,000+ deaths!! —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 02:06, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * How's this for typhoon damage? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:04, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haiyan is still the same intensity per the JMA, but the JTWC has weakened it to 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 130 knots (150 mph). The JTWC now predicts Haiyan will be a moderate tropical storm per their standards at its Vietnam landfall, while the JMA predicts the typhoon will maintain its intensity before landfall. Also, a fatality check - 120. Expect that number to rise in the coming days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:15, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yikes, that's terrible. For the record, make that 138 deaths. I expect Yolanda to depart from the PAGASA naming lists. Forecast to weaken quickly, to a TS before making landfall in Vietnam. Ryan1000 15:59, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * The leader of the UN disaster team in the Philippines is comparing the aftermath of Haiyan to that of the Asian tsunami. The Red Cross estimates as many as 1,200 fatalities. A four-digit death toll is all but certain, and I wouldn't be surprised if Thelma's record for the deadliest storm in the Philippines (up to 8,000) is broken. This is one of those rare storms that I can honestly call an embodiment of Satan. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:18, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Sadly the death toll is expect to rise right now is at least 1,300 and they say it could climb up as the deaths are from areas not that hard hit compare to the others.We still need to see the greatest devastation left to Haiyan another td or ts is coming there way the next name is?Allanjeffs 18:58, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Allan, the next name on the list is Podul. According to Dr. Masters's latest blog post, which was just posted within the past hour, Bloomberg Industries estimates insured damages at $2 billion, with total economic damage of $14 billion, making Haiyan/Yolanda the most destructive typhoon in Philippine history. Considering that the PAGASA retires names if they have either a.) caused ₱1 billion (equivalent to $23.156 million, or just 1.1578% of the Bloomberg estimate of insured damage), or b.) at least 300 deaths (Haiyan's death toll officially stands at 138, with a Red Cross estimate of 1,200 &mdash; I would expect both to rise substantially), I would expect PAGASA to make an announcement retiring the name Yolanda tomorrow evening at the latest. Personally, I think they should just ignore their own arbitrary standards and retire Yolanda now, given the scenes and stories of immense devastation. The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee should also retire Haiyan ASAP. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:43, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * I wish that this didn't happen... This is the worst Phillippine cyclone EVER. Lord help these people! :( POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 21:37, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Liz, I agree. Haiyan (Yolanda) is one of the strongest tropical cyclones to ever attack the Philippines. As for Vietnam, they are lucking out. The JMA has crashed Haiyan down to 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /950 mbar (hPa; 28.05 inHg). They forecast Haiyan to barely be a typhoon at its Vietnam landfall. The JTWC has downgraded Haiyan to 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds), gusting to 110 knots (125 mph). The JTWC also expects Haiyan to barely be a typhoon at its Vietnam landfall near Hanoi. In the Philippines, the Tacloban airport terminal was submerged to the second story. Many buildings have been wiped off the face of the earth from the surge and landslides. Also, I would like to give an idea of the intensity of Haiyan. NOAA estimates the pressure could be anywhere between 858 mbar (hPa; 25.34 inHg) and 884 mbar (hPa; 26.11 inHg). If confirmed, we could see the strongest tropical cyclone worldwide since Hurricane Wilma in the 2005 AHS, likely even lower than her peak. Haiyan's one-minute windspeeds of 315 km/h (195 mph) are the fourth highest on record, after Nancy '61 (345 km/h), Violet '61 (335 km/h), and Ida '58 (325 km/h). Because all of those typhoons have potentially erroneously high windspeeds, Haiyan likely has the world record high typhoon windspeed. Also, Colin Price of the Tel Aviv, Israel planetary sciences departments claims tropical cyclones as powerful, maybe even stronger than Haiyan, could happen in the near future. This is a colossal nightmare that will be long remembered... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:41, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Uh, Andy, you're telling a story here, right? THIS IS A TOTAL NIGHTMARE! IT FEELS LIKE THE TITANIC! If I were to control hurricanes I would eat this monster typhoon up right now. I feel so sorry for these people. :(  POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 21:46, November 9, 2013 (UTC)

(←)Liz, I wish I was, but facts are facts. Haiyan indeed made a landfall even Camille had to bow down to. The storm surge will kill thousands, potentially the level Winnie (2004) and Uring (Thelma, 1991) did. Damagewise, Pablo (Bopha) could get beaten big time. It's awesome the WPAC is firing up, but the fact it is now producing deadly storms to land makes it worrisome. Intensity comes with a price. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:57, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, how tragic, I never knew Haiyan would be so deadly. This is the 3rd straight year in a row in which a monster storm killed more than 1,000 people from flooding in the Philipines. Washi in 2011, Bopha in 2012, and now Haiyan in 2013. 14 billion in damage is a record for the Philipines, and one of the highest ever in the Western Pacific. Haiyan is definitely out, as is Yolanda. Ryan1000 22:02, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haiyan caused the "worst" experience this storm chaser crew ever endured. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:28, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * The first official damage reports are in... at $149,519.79. I'd like to know where that paltry estimate was taken from... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:03, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * ...and that load-of-crap damage estimate is sharply contrasted by what Philippine officials estimate is the first five-digit death toll from any tropical cyclone in their country's history. They're saying 10,000 dead in Leyte alone. At this rate, we could see the deadliest natural disaster worldwide since Nargis. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:36, November 10, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Haiyan (continued)
Just to make it easier edit. HM99: That's only Leyte, not including eastern Samar, the hardest hit region.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:44, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I recognize that. I said: "They're saying 10,000 dead in Leyte alone." If that verifies, then I can only shudder at the thought of how high Haiyan's death toll may end up... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:50, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * And now there's another report on Twitter saying that as many as 10,000 could be dead in Tacloban alone, out of 240,000. The prospect of a six-digit death toll is becoming disturbingly feasible. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:56, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Intensitywise, Haiyan continues to plummet. It is now at 80 knots (90 mph, 145 lm/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) per the JMA, but remains the same intensity per the JTWC. Luckily, both the JTWC and JMA predict Haiyan will now be a strong tropical storm at its Vietnam landfall. Back to the Philippines. The number of confirmed fatalities from Haiyan is 151, making it the season's deadliest storm. I am not sure how many fatalities this monster caused. However, if that 240,000 verifies, it will be the deadliest named WPAC tropical cyclone on record, beating Nina '75's 229,000. :( Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:03, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * That 240,000 isn't a fatality estimate, it's the population of Tacloban, as in "10,000 people out of Tacloban's 240,000 are estimated to have been killed." I still wouldn't be surprised if we get a six-digit death toll, though, but 10,000 is bad enough! Oh, and 70-80% of everything in Haiyan's path in Leyte was destroyed. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:08, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haiyan is now at 80 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained) per both the JTWC and JMA. Its pressure remains at 955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) per the JMA and gusts are at 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h) per the JTWC. Vietnam should get ready for the monster. Currently, damage estimates from Haiyan are confirmed to be $167,000 (2013 USD), although that number could significantly and easily rise in the coming days. As for deaths, Philippine provinical disaster officials confirm it at 300. For comparison, Typhoon Xangsane in 2006 killed 312 and Typhoon Saomai that same year killed 458. As for Vietnam, they need to prepare. Nari and Wutip have already caused widespread damage in the nation. Haiyan could cause twice the impact as they did. And for the record, Wutip's damage total of $240 million (2013 USD) makes it the second costliest Vietnam typhoon on record, after Ketsana. Hopefully Ketsana does not bow down to Haiyan... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:56, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Sadly that number should climb up but the Philippines should be prepare as possibly ts pabul or pobul make its way into it.Remember a ts can also be a killer.Washi comes into mind.Andrew I believe Haiyan will not be that bad to Vietnam it already weaken a lot.The Philippines have always save Vietnam of hit blows.btw have there ever been a cat 5 landfall in Vietnam in recorded history?Allanjeffs 16:13, November 10, 2013 (UTC)

According to the best track, no category 5 storm has ever hit Vietnam at that intensity; I don't even think there was a category 4 landfall. But there were plenty of cat 3's and below, I don't know how strong the great Haiphong Typhoon of 1881 was. And get a load of this (from Dr Master's latest post). Yep, Haiyan is out. Ryan1000 19:38, November 10, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Haiyan (2nd time)
Down to 60 kts (10-min)/970 mbar per the JMA and 75 kts (1-min) per the JTWC as it closes in on northern Vietnam. Ryan, comment #15 of that blog tells of "bodies hanging from trees and strewn all over the streets." I've never seen damage of Haiyan's degree from a tropical cyclone. 10,000 people are feared dead in Tacloban alone. I'm feeling a terrifying death toll coming on, potentially approaching even 100,000. This was a nightmare storm, and I never want to see anything like it again for as long as I live. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:14, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, Haiyan was really a nightmare storm. 10,000 deaths in Tacloban alone?! That is just...tragic. My god, this must be one of the worst storms in Philippine history. It's certainly going to be retired now. Anyway, I hope it won't be too bad for Vietnam, and that it weakens rapidly before landfall, since it has caused too much destruction in the Philippines already. :( —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 22:04, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * The JTWC has lowered Haiyan's one-minute sustained winds to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 80 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h). The confirmed death toll from Haiyan is now 232. Like Bopha and Washi, Haiyan's death toll keeps rising by the minute. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:37, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * And we have landfall just up the coast from Haiphong. 55 kts (10-min) and 975 mbar per the JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:06, November 11, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Haiyan (2nd time)
The JTWC has written Haiyan off with concluding winds of 60 knots (70 mph, 115 km/h) (1-minute sustained) ; the JMA have Haiyan at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). Confirmed damage is now reported at $6.8 million (2013 USD) from Haiyan and the confirmed death toll is now at 1,469 (1,455 in the Philippines, eight in Taiwan, and six in Vietnam). Also, here is good evidence of what Haiyan left behind. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:48, November 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * 6.8 million is a ridiculously low estimate; it has to be at least hundreds of millions, if not billions. The death toll alone is enough to retire Haiyan. And btw, Yolanda is gone. Ryan1000 13:03, November 11, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Haiyan
Good riddance. Confirmed death toll in the Philippines is at 942 according to CTV News; add in 13 in Vietnam (according to Dr. Masters's just-posted blog post) and 8 in Taiwan, and you have 963 fatalities. However, the new blog post from Dr. Masters also states that the confirmed Philippine death toll is 1,774. I'd like to know which source is correct; the number provided by Dr. Masters seems more realistic, but I hope it's incorrect. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:14, November 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Storms like Haiyan are usually once-in a lifetime events, but the Philipines have taken a beating from tropical storms over the past 3 years. Having a storm kill 1,000 people or more in the islands for 3 years in a row is making me wonder whether Climate Change is making storms like Haiyan more frequent, or whether the Philipines still have much more to do when it comes to getting people out of harm's way before the storm hits. They likely did all they could to get everyone out of harm's way but Haiyan still killed god knows how many people. It will take more technology to predict how powerful storms like Haiyan will be further in advance, and it will also be up to people in the islands to decide if they should leave sooner to avoid horrendous death tolls from storms like this in the future. Haiyan set a benchmark for that area of the Philipines, and from now on that area will get ready long before the storm hits to greatly reduce the death toll. It's also unlikely any of us will ever know how mighty this storm really was when it roared into Tacloban the night of the 7th. The 195 mph winds were only estimated from the JTWC from sattelite imagery, meaning it could have easily been higher than 200 mph when it hit the city, or slightly less, around 190 mph, when it made landfall. Regardless of what could've been, a landfalling storm this powerful may never come again in our lifetimes. Although, if Climate Change continues to worsen, storms like Haiyan may happen more frequently in the future. Hopefully we can understand more about these storms down the road to prevent disasters like this from becoming more frequent. It's incredible to see these things explode to limitless intensity out to sea, but it's heartbreaking to see them rip apart entire cities and towns at full force. Tacloban city may very well have experienced the highest windspeeds of any landfalling tropical cyclone in recorded history four days ago. I hope everyone keeps the people affected in the Philippines in their thoughts and prayers every day. Many of them have a long and difficult road to recovery ahead of them. Some areas of the islands may never be the same again. Ryan1000 20:11, November 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10000 fatalities? The worst storm ever, making cousins Katrina and Sandy weak in comparison. Glad Haiyan has gone. I hope the UK can help Haiyan victims! This is THE WORST TYPHOON EVER! How I feel so sorry for these people, I hope this won't ever happen again. Horrible event, I can't even think right now. :(  POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 22:20, November 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's official: at least 1,774 people are dead per the latest NDRRMC report. Ryan, where are you hearing that Yolanda was retired? I mean it's doomed to happen - the updated death toll is nearly six times the threshold - but I'm not seeing any news results announcing the retirement. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:33, November 12, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Do not expect Haiyan to be the end. We have another one coming! Per the JMA, a new tropical depression has formed. It has winds of 30 knots (35 mph, <55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) at the moment. Per the JTWC, due to vertical wind shear, the system, designated Invest 90W, has a low chance of becoming a significant tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:32, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haiyan stole all the warm water for this one, I doubt it will do much. Ryan1000 15:59, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Per the JMA, the depression's pressure has fallen to 1000 mbar (hPa). Also, I would like to mention how close it the system is to the equator per the JTWC tropical weather outlook:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.0N 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, PALAU.

For comparison, Shanshan '13 (Crising), Sonamu '13 (Auring), and Bopha '12 (Pablo) reached latitudes of 4.2N, 3.2N, and 2.2N, respectively. This is the closest a tropical cyclone has formed to the equator since Agni in the NIO in 2004. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:21, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Scratch what I said above. The JMA has the latitude of the depression at 1.3°N. Following a tropical cyclone (Haiyan) that possibly made the most intense tropical cyclone landfall on record, we now have a tropical depression that is challenging Vamei's title as the most Equitorial tropical cyclone on record (Vamei formed at 1.4°N). In addition, the depression is forecast to reach 35 knots (40 mph, 18 m/s) (10-minute sustained winds) /998 mbar (hPa). If the JMA's forecast pans out to be correct, Vamei will lose its crown as the closest tropical cyclone to form near the Equator. Also, I am having a little trouble determining whether or not this depression should on Wikipedia's List of Equatorial tropical cyclones list because the JTWC has not designated this systema tropical depression yet. I would appreciate your input here. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:36, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JMA is the official RSMC for the WPac, so I don't see why not, as JTWC is unofficial. I still don't expect this to become very strong. Ryan1000 00:07, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * The JTWC now gives the system a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone per their standards in 24 hours based on the marginally favorable environment ahead of it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:05, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think we will see Podul from this, and it could be one of the most equatorial storms on record! —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 22:08, November 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * The JTWC has issued a TCFA in anticipation of the system's development. It looks real organized on satellite imagery. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:39, November 10, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Zoraida
For only the third time since the new Philippine naming lists were instituted in 2001 (after Zigzag in '03 and Zosimo in '04), we have our PAGASA 'Z' storm! One more, and we will hit the auxiliary list for the first time on the new lists. Currently at 30 kts (10-min)/1000 mbar per the JMA. According to the Sun Star, Public Storm Signal Number 1 has been raised for Dinagat Island, Siargao Island, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Davao Oriental. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:18, November 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Philippines do not need any more. Yolanda (Haiyan) devastated them enough, and Zoraida should not follow suit. On the other hand, if we get one more PAGASA-named tropical cyclone, we will use the auxiliary list for the first time since 1994! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:45, November 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * The GFS and Euro don't see much coming from this, just moving into Mindanao as a TD or TS then into Vietnam after that. Hopefully this is the last of them. Ryan1000 13:10, November 11, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
There are enough storms. Isaac829 E-Mail  18:39, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Other names - 10% - Nothing seems to be worth retiring this year.
 * Usagi - 20% - Didn't do too much.
 * Haiyan - 100% - Going, going, gone.

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions:

JMA:
 * 1) Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all.
 * 2) Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not.
 * 3) Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths.
 * 4) Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi.
 * 5) Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 6) Rumbia - 5% - Fifty-five deaths, along with $1.25 million (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca an unlikely retirement candidate. Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * 7) Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good.
 * 8) Cimaron - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported.
 * 9) Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been.
 * 10) Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it was that bad at all for Vietnam.
 * 11) Utor - 55% - Utor could have been so much worse than it really was. Looking at a super typhoon explode so close to the Philippines was just unreal. The Philippines have quite the road to recovery and southern China was hit pretty good as well. However, despite the ugly $2.3 million (2013 USD) in damage, the 25 deaths lowers my percentage significantly. If Utor had caused Bopha or Washi-like fatality totals, we could be looking at a typhoon with an 95% chance of retirement.
 * 12) Trami - 3% - Trami did cause 18 fatalities and property losses of $1.83 million (2013 USD). It also has caused serious flooding in China and the Philippines. Fortunately, most of those regions were in a drought, so there was some benefit from the storm.
 * 13) Kong-rey - 1% - Despite the two deaths reported from Kong-rey, I doubt it will be remembered.
 * 14) Yutu - 0% - Yutu was nothing more than a Western Pacific Gaston or Jose.
 * 15) Toraji - 0.5% - Toraji was not significantly bad for Japan or Taiwan.
 * 16) Man-yi - 0.5% - Only one fatality was reported from Man-yi, and that does not make it a retirement nominee at all.
 * 17) Usagi - 40% - Hong Kong came so close to getting nailed here. Luckily, Usagi collapsed before it could do so. However, the 50 deaths and $1.15 billion (2013 USD) in damage will make it a major retiree candidate.
 * 18) Pabuk - 0% - Pabuk tried...and failed.
 * 19) Wutip - 30% - Wutip caused lots of hype in Vietnam. Sixty-five fatalities and $233 million (2013 USD) in damage do give a small shot of leaving, considering its Vietnam's second costliest typhoon.
 * 20) Sepat - 0.01% - Sepat's impacts to Japan should not be enough at all to retire it.
 * 21) Fitow - 4% - Fitow's $372 million (2013 USD) in damage and 11 fatalities make it along the lines of Soulik, which is good, considering the flooding in China.
 * 22) Danas - 10% - Okinawa may have gotten unlucky here. 2007's Man-yi was their last brutal beating, and Danas was not as strong as Man-yi. Still, fifteen fatalities gives it a chance.
 * 23) Nari - 8% - The Philippines, Vietnam, and Loas did get pounded a little. $71.4 million in damages (2013 USD) and 38 fatalities, along with some flooding, give it that small chance.
 * 24) Wipha - 5% - The 13 fatalities in Japan are not looking good...
 * 25) Francisco - 0.1% - Francisco did affect several landmasses and became a Category 5, but I do not think it will be retired.
 * 26) Lekima - 0% - Lekima overtopped Usagi as the season's strongest storm, but it did not affect any landmasses, so no retirement is in store.
 * 27) Krosa - 1% - Four fatalities and $4.78 million (2013 USD) in damage will not be enough for retirement, although agricultural damage in the Philippines was rather significant.
 * 28) Haiyan - 99% - This was one complete mightmare. I never would have guessed that Haiyan would have gone as far up as it did. The Philippines were blown away by this monster. Seeing the damage and death pictures was something right out of a horror movie. If Haiyan does not get retired, I will be extremely surprised.

PAGASA:
 * 1) Auring - 0.1% - No.
 * 2) Bising - 0% - No way.
 * 3) Crising - 2% - Not really.
 * 4) Dante - 0% - No way.
 * 5) Emong - 0.05% - No.
 * 6) Fabian - 0% - No way.
 * 7) Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it.
 * 8) Huaning - 0% - No.
 * 9) Isang - 0.01% - No.
 * 10) Jolina - 0.05% - No.
 * 11) Kiko - 0.05% - No.
 * 12) Labuyo - 50% - Maybe, but I will not guarantee it.
 * 13) Maring - 0.5% - No.
 * 14) Nando - 0.01% - No.
 * 15) Odette - 0.5% - Not really.
 * 16) Paolo - 0.01% - No.
 * 17) Quedan - 0% - No way.
 * 18) Ramil - 0% - No way.
 * 19) Santi - 3% - Not really.
 * 20) Tino - 0% - No way.
 * 21) Urduja - 0% - No way.
 * 22) Vinta - 2% - Not really.
 * 23) Wilma - 0.5% - No.
 * 24) Yolanda - 99% - I almost guarantee it.
 * 25) Zoraida - TBA - Still Active

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Might as well make mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Those are mine. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - <1% - Not happening.
 * Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha.
 * Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan.
 * Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this.
 * Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area.
 * Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse.
 * Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse.
 * Jebi - 8% - Meh.
 * Mangkhut - 10% - Not too bad.
 * Utor - 50% - Caused lots of damage over parts of Luzon, China got off better though.
 * Trami - 15% - It contributed to an already severe flood problem in China, hopefully it doesn't get much worse.
 * Kong-Rey - 15% - Some flooding, but nothing significant.
 * Yutu - 0% - Do it again! I wasn't looking.
 * Toraji - 5% - Some flooding in Japan, but likely not retirement-worthy.
 * Man-Yi - 3% - Damage in Japan wasn't too severe.
 * Usagi - 55% - 3.8 billion in damage and around 40 deaths, but like Utor, Hong Kong escaped the worst of the storm's fury.
 * Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Wutip - 65% - According to Dr. Master's latest blog post, this was the 2nd costliest typhoon in Vietnam's history, after 2009's Ketsana. It could go away, but I'm not 100% sure.
 * Sepat - 0% - Fish.
 * Fitow - 25% - Some damage and deaths, but China has seen worse.
 * Danas - 0% - Gave Japan and the Koreas a scare but they came out unscathed.
 * Nari - 20% - Some damage and deaths, but probably not retirement-worthy.
 * Wipha - 15% - Zipped right by Japan as a typhoon, but didn't do as much as it could've done.
 * Francisco - 0% - This wasn't even close to as bad as it could've been.
 * Lekima - 0% - Missed land, like Francisco. But, it was pretty cool to watch.
 * Krosa - 10% - 689,000 in damage and 4 deaths isn't negligible, but probably not enough either.
 * Haiyan - 100% - Annihilated Tacloban City, killed over 1200 people, caused 14 billion in damage, there's no hope for this one to stay on the list.
 * Auring - 1% - Not enough.
 * Bising - 0% - Seriously?
 * Crising - 4% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening.
 * Fabian - 0% - What?
 * Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen.
 * Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines.
 * Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines.
 * Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands.
 * Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines.
 * Labuyo - 100% - Has been retired.
 * Maring - 2% - Mostly missed the islands.
 * Nando - ~0% - No real impacts to the islands.
 * Odette - <5% - Largely missed Luzon.
 * Paolo - 0% - Missed the islands.
 * Quendan - 0% - Well away from the Philipines.
 * Ramil - 0% - Again, missed the islands.
 * Santi - 25% - Killed 13 people, but that's not even a shadow of what they've seen before (Bopha anyone?)
 * Tino - 0% - Not even close.
 * Urduja - 0% - Not by a long shot.
 * Vinta - 5% - Not too severe for Luzon.
 * Wilma - 10% - Probably wasn't too severe for the islands.
 * Yolanda - 100% - Has been retired.
 * Zoraida - ?? - Just hit the islands. No damage or death tolls out yet.

Here's my predictions:

JMA names
 * Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough.
 * Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement.
 * Yagi - 0% - Failure.
 * Leepi - 0% - No way.
 * Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it.
 * Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse.
 * Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so.
 * Jebi - 0.5% - Nope.
 * Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it.
 * Utor - 55% - Caused lots of destruction in the Philippines and China. I think we have the first serious retirement candidate!
 * Trami - 10% - It did cause some damage and deaths, but I don't think it is going.
 * Kong-rey - 2% - Probably not.
 * Yutu - 0% - Nothing.
 * Toraji - 1% - Affected Japan, but it will not be retired.
 * Man-yi - 2% - Not much damage in Japan.
 * Usagi - 20% - Hong Kong almost got devastated here. Well, at least its center missed the area and it weakened, so it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. But it still caused plenty of damage and deaths.
 * Pabuk - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Wutip - 60% - It's the 2nd costliest typhoon in Vietnam history! This could possibly go, but I'm not 100% sure.
 * Sepat - 0% - Another fail.
 * Fitow - 15% - Caused some damage and deaths in China, but it will most likely not be retired.
 * Danas - 5% - Wasn't too bad.
 * Nari - 20% - Caused quite a bit of damage and deaths in the Philippines and Vietnam, but retirement? Probably not.
 * Wipha - 10% - This storm zipped right by Japan, and it caused some deaths and damage. But I think it will stay.
 * Francisco - 1% - Became a C5, but didn't significantly affect land. So, no retirement here.
 * Lekima - 0.1% - It became the strongest of 2013 and never affected land. That's the type of storm that I like to see! While Lekima certainly isn't going to be retired because it didn't affect land, the "0.1%" is for its awesomeness.
 * Krosa - 5% - Caused some damage to the Philippines, but no retirement here.
 * Haiyan - 100% - It's out for good now. The Philippines devastation is just too much!

PAGASA names <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it.
 * Bising - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Crising - 2% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Hell no.
 * Emong - 0.1% - No.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way.
 * Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse.
 * Huaning - 0% - Nope.
 * Isang - 0.1% - Not happening.
 * Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired.
 * Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines.
 * Labuyo - Retired.
 * Maring - 0.5% - It mostly missed the Philippines.
 * Nando - 0% - No Philippine impacts.
 * Odette - 0.5% - Not really.
 * Paolo - 0% - Missed the Philippines.
 * Quedan - 0% - See Paolo.
 * Ramil - 0% - Nope.
 * Santi - 10% - 13 deaths make it an unlikely retirement candidate, since the Philippines has seen much worse.
 * Tino - 0% - No.
 * Urduja - 0% - Well away from the Philippines.
 * Vinta - 5% - Not really.
 * Wilma - 5% - I don't think it was too severe.
 * Yolanda - 100% - Duh.

Labuyo has been retired due to its damage total. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

So we know that if a storm makes more than1 billion in damage and kill more than 300 lives is going to be retire.Now we know which ones are going out of the list.Allanjeffs 15:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not surprised it was retired, but I'm not sure if Utor itself will be retired. Sometimes a storms PAGASA name is retired but the JMA name stays, like Frank (Fengshen) in 2008, or many of the tropical storms in 2011 (except for Washi, which was retired by both PAGASA and JMA). Ryan1000 15:36, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Guys, I think you underestimated Santi/Nari. Despite its low death toll count, it still managed to cause damages worth PHP 3 billion, making it a candidate for retirement. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:37, November 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Doesn't mean they'd be retired though, the Philipines almost never escape a season without seeing a powerful typhoon or two. Just because it's PAGASA name went doesn't mean it's JMA name will too. Ryan1000 21:43, November 7, 2013 (UTC)

Replacement names
I know it will be extremely difficult to pinpoint a replacement for a WPAC retiree. But I will still post my replacement suggestions for the storms that likely might be retired or already are retired.

Labuyo - Liberato

Yolanda - Yayang

I will not put anything in for Haiyan because a replacement name in the WPAC does not need to start with the same letter of the retiree.

Anyone else is free to post a replacement option for Haiyan (Yolanda), Labuyo, are any of the other names of the season. But here are my suggestions for you:


 * PAGASA names tend to be Filipino (but are not always so) . Think of a Filipino name or a popular name in the Philippines.


 * Haiyan means petrel in Chinese. Its replacement will be a Chinese name or object.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:50, November 9, 2013 (UTC)

Ok then! I got an idea! I translated these on Google Translate. XD
 * KUMQUAT!!!! XD 金橘
 * Ping guo 苹果
 * Mang guo 芒果
 * Xiao ma 肩
 * Hu jian 小马
 * Caihong duanpao 彩虹短跑

Know what these mean? POTATOES ARE AWESOME BECAUSE I'M A BANANA 21:56, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have no idea what they'll replace Haiyan with, and since the Philipines often use adjectives in their naming lists, Yayang would do for Yolanda. Ryan1000 22:02, November 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Liz, "Ping guo" means apple, "Xiao ma" means little horse, and "Mang guo" means mango. I would go with "Pingguo" or "Mangguo" as a replacement. I would not suggest "Xiaoma" as a replacement for Haiyan because it is along the lines of "Haima" on List V in this basin, which is Chinese for "sea horse". If I were to select a replacement for Haiyan, it would be "Mingming", a Chinese name for young boys. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:06, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Since a petrel is a bird, I'll suggest some Chinese translations for bird names:
 * Anchun (quail)
 * Junjian niao (frigatebird)
 * Zhi geng niao (robin)
 * Shuji zhujiao (cardinal)
 * Wuya (crow)
 * Gezi (dove)
 * Maque (sparrow)
 * Hai'ou (seagull)
 * Ti (pelican)
 * Xuan feng yingwu (cockatiel)
 * Yingwu (parrot)
 * And Liz, I translated those and came back with cumquat, apple (like Andrew did), mango (like Andrew did), shoulder, pony (slightly different from Andrew), and Rainbow Dash, respectively. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:21, November 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Mingming is a possibility, but I personally find it unlikely due to potential confusion with Lingling or Tingting, the former of which is two names ahead of Haiyan and the latter of which was retired for unknown reasons. But since WPac replacement names don't have to begin with the retiree's first letter, I can't place a definite bet on what would replace Haiyan. Ryan1000 00:05, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I can't really think of any names to replace Haiyan with, but Yayang does sound like a good replacement name for Yolanda. —<font color="darkblue" face="Tahoma">Steven09876 <font color="darkgreen" face="Tahoma">Talk • <font color="darkred" face="Tahoma">Contribs 22:22, November 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sorry guys, but Yayang is already on the list for next year. My picks for Labuyo, Haiyan, and Yolanda are Lucas, Yingwu, and Yancy, respectively. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:22, November 11, 2013 (UTC)