Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: North of Libya
This thing is being discussed on both Storm2k and Wikipedia. Looking at the northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean, this looks the most prominent. There's also the one east of Spain and the one near the Canaries, but this one may be the most prominent. Any thoughts on these storms? Let's see if it does anything. Apparently anotehr Wikipedian is sending NHC an email, but I'd never be brave enough to do something like that. Let's see if this does anything. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:18, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * For god's sake, give us links! Like this one! And the most impressive one I see is in the Mediterranean. But wouldn't it be great to see Franklin mention Wikipedia as a source? If it is that little tight bundle of convection, I don't see it going anywhere. Could someone point whatever it is out to me? IP (Talk) (The Project)  10:40, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Ok, look at the NE Atlantic and Meditteranean. There are three interesting areas: the one near the Canaries, the one east of Spain (Mediterranean), and the one between Sicily and Libya (Mediterranean). The one Between Sicily and Libya is the one I'm mentioning. It's about time something formed in the Mediterranean. See here for links to images. Is it time for the Mediterranean to get busy? Let's wait and see. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:26, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * From what I see, this thing probably was some sort of subtrop earlier, now it's a T-storm. The one North of Libya, same, maybe not really subtrop though. It looked really cool earlier. IP (Talk) (The Project)  19:48, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Whoa! CMC and GFS take something HUGE into the Med in a few days. Does anyone have a global version of these? IP (Talk) (The Project)  18:55, 19 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI - Floater INVEST
This is the thing near South Florida. Don't know why it's an invest though. IP (Talk) (The Project)  10:41, 18 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Maybe they're just getting bored of October, too, and need something to watch. 67.155.250.26 15:36, 18 October 2007 (UTC)
 * I don't see it. Cyclone1 (19:41 UTC -18/10/2007)


 * I don't think anybody EVER saw it. IP (Talk) (The Project)  19:46, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Was it on NRL? Cyclone1 (19:49 UTC -18/10/2007)

Nope, NHC floater. IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:11, 18 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Then it's not 90L. I changed the header. Cyclone1 (21:44 UTC -18/10/2007)


 * Wait, hold on, you're asking if it was? I don't know, I didn't have time to check. It's not up now. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:26, 18 October 2007 (UTC)

It's never been on NRL. Looks like it may never be. Cyclone1 (00:18 UTC -19/10/2007)


 * I think NHC made a mistake, because they're not taking it down. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:32, 19 October 2007 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Don't worry, this time I checked with the NRL, and this thing looks FANTASTIC! Convective clouds are now directly over the low, and it seems that the LLCC is pretty healthy. Anyone reminded of a specific hurricane season? Anyone? <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  16:18, 25 October 2007 (UTC)
 * Zzzz .. huh .. what what? Something going on in the Atlantic?  Humm, doens't look bad to be honest, although the models aren't really doing much with this .. though it's kind of nice to have something to keep an eye on again .. 67.155.250.26 18:51, 25 October 2007 (UTC)


 * FINALLY something to track. Looks surprisingly well considering the horrific conditions it's in. Surprised it's been able to develop... Cyclone1 (21:45 UTC -25/10/2007)


 * Read the latest two, they're now on board the "Could be a depression" package. Mind if I say, "Here we go again?" <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:44, 26 October 2007 (UTC)

On the verge of TD says the 11:30 TWO. I'm convinced this will become TD-16. Cyclone1 (15:57 UTC -27/10/2007)


 * The Atlantic's not done yet! This one looks pretty good. And 'on the verge' used by NHC tells me that we could see advisories today. -- SkyFury 17:11, 27 October 2007 (UTC)


 * HWRF and GFDL as hurricanes. Settle down boys. Here we go. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  18:31, 27 October 2007 (UTC)

Extremely deep convection has established itself over the center during the last couple hours. If the current convective trend continues, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a hurricane approaching the western tip of Cuba in a few days. With an upper-level anticyclone, a trough enhancing strong diffluence, warm and deep waters, and favourable shear, I wouldn't even put a major hurricane out of the realm of possibility. If 90L can consolidate itself into a depression overnight, it will have a good 3-4 days to intensify over water. This could be a potentially dangerous hurricane, so be prepared everyone. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 23:13, 27 October 2007 (UTC)


 * The scariest bit about that is that he's right. Sends shivers down my spine, it does. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:31, 27 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, just like December 22, 2012. Why is everybody playing Nostradomus here? What anticyclone? While this could be a dangerous hurricane, it could also just be a number. Dean and his Latino friend aside, this has been a very underachieving season. Of the fifteen storms (including depressions), only four have been hurricanes. Four have been ravaged by shear, two have formed in the middle of nowhere and five or six were of non-tropical origin. The TWD mention this system being bothered by shear, that makes me think not so highly of this system. The convection is quite impressive and I would indeed be surprised if it doesn't get at least a number but beyond that, I reserve judgement. -- SkyFury 00:42, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

16L.NONAME
Tropical Depression Sixteen, according to the NRL. I still think this thing could be trouble. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 00:48, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh, and this shear map shows the anticyclone over the western Caribbean nicely: . While Tropical Depression Sixteen may never find itself directly under it, it will most likely still feel some of its positive effects. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 00:53, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * That it will, sir. Anyhow, if this thing continues west, it most likely will become a fairly strong hurricane, and if it goes up to the north, a somewhat weaker storm. I believe that, at this point, a major hurricane is not completely out of the question but only if 16L does not hit land early and does not track to far north. That being said, it still does not have too much of a chance for major status. This almost certainly will be Noel, however. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  01:11, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh, and don't say tropical yet. It looks fairly subtrop, although the convection seems to suggest otherwise. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  01:11, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I'd bet my house it isn't called subtropical. Cyclone1 (01:36 UTC -28/10/2007)


 * Trick or treat! Looks like you're gonna keep your house, Cyclone1 (unless you happen to have a winter home in Cuba). NHC says it's tropical and now officialy has a number. That afforementioned anticyclone should give it a little break and allow it to become a storm. Whether or not it becomes a hurricane depends on how much of a break it gets. IP, I still think you're being a little aggressive with this one. I think it's too close to land for anything significant. Note that both Humberto and Lorenzo were small systems. This is a large system and will a) take longer to get it's act together and b) be more easily affected by the land interaction. It still won't be a very happy Halloween for anyone in Cuba, Haiti or Jamaica. -- SkyFury 07:02, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

Dude, have you SEEN the models? Like, at ALL? EVER? I'd say that this thing has a damn good chance of making hurricane. I frankly just don't see the fuss over why it couldn't. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  12:21, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 16
Now that it's official this needs to be created. The models right now might as well be ignored. The NHC said themselves that they really don't know where the center is. Recon will tell the story in a few hours. When the models get a good hold on the center, we should get a definite consensus. Cyclone1 (12:34 UTC -28/10/2007)


 * Intensity shouldn't change with only around 90 miles, although the track would. Models, that is. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  13:22, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Finally, 2007 is giving us something just to mark the end of October! Otherwise, We might have had an empty October. NHC seems to take it harmlessly out to sea, but the models don't exactly agree. Some models take it to major hurricane strength, SHIPS takes it to Cat. 2 within 3 days. Most models agree on the possibility of a Canadian landfall, some take it landfalling on Florida, some suggest as far west as Texas. Might also go as far east as Bermuda. So, there you have it, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Cuba, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, everything from Georgia to Maine, Bermuda, Nova Scotia, PEI, Newfoundland, and most of Europe are all within its possible striking zone. Might even give us some snow in S. Ontario if it travells west enough and becomes big and strong enough. There's even the possibility of a Canadian hurricane landfall. Let's wait and see. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:55, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Subtract Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Georgia-Maine. If anything, it's going to hit extreme southern Florida and head out to sea. Cyclone1 (16:21 UTC -28/10/2007)


 * This is a Tropical storm. I am very pissed with the NHC's handling of the situation. All signs point to a 45 knot storm. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  17:24, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * They have better equipment than we do so I don't think you can fairly make that statement but this is an extremely impressive system and I honestly don't see how this isn't a storm yet. With that many bright colors screaming through the IR, I don't know how the Dvorak readings have remained unchaged. Those are the best-looking 30 knots I have ever seen. -- SkyFury 17:39, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Noel
They heard you... 45 knots! Damn, are you psychic, IP? -- SkyFury 17:42, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * No, that's what the Dvorak looked like :P. Plus, you know, the voices told me. But enough of that. Convection is amazing. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  18:03, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Man, whatever you're smoking, I want some ;). Where are you getting the Dvorak readings? I don't know how to read those broadband IR pictures. -- SkyFury 18:21, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh, you can't do a whole reading with them, but for the most part, you can make a reliable estimate. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  20:09, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Well I can make a very rough guess just by how strong the convection looks, but I usually give a range rather than one number. -- SkyFury 21:06, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

Also, it helps to know what storms of similar intensity tend to look like, and this did look like a fifty miler. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  22:22, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks amazing now! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:57, 29 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy f#^k! COC made a jump, now it's north of Haiti! God, I just don't wanna know... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:32, 29 October 2007 (UTC)

I'm at school (PI here.. the IP fakir) and can't access any models. What's the chances of a Nova Scotia landfall, and at what intensity? I'm here in Nova Scotia, and it's quite unnerving to have a strong storm eye you. Pun intended.


 * Put "FSU Tropical Model" into Google and search. First site will have GFS, HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NOGAPS, and MM5 (and some other really bad models like CMC). <font color="#000000">IP At School-like PI <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  16:14, 29 October 2007 (UTC)

According to canadian TV, the death count in Haiti and the Dominican Republic is at least sixty so far. So much for any hopes of a non-event. (and please, no jokes about sixty deaths in Haiti being a non-event).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:32, 29 October 2007 (UTC)


 * No, it was more of a sort of anti-non-non-non-event, if you're getting my drift 'wink'. Look at the consolidation of convection tonight; good outflow and strong LLCC. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:19, 30 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Hey, you don't have to be so callous! I mean, I know it's Haiti, where a paper fan is a weapon of mass destruction, but *still*! ;-)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:58, 30 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Woah! CMC goes crazy, making Noel plummet New York, Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland, as a possible hurricane. Yes, I do think that looks like a re-Juan, with a more NE-angle. Most models allow it to strike Newfoundland. Talk about Placentia's nightmare! In fact, I've memorized the models' link: . If it veers far enough west, we could get a snowstorm. The CMC, GFDL, and GFS, which the NHC depends on, all allow the storm to make landfall in Canada, and all make it to what appears to be hurricane-strength. I really think Nova Scotians don't want a re-Juan, but if CMC is right (is that the Canadian model?) it could very well pull a Juan. Let's see what it does, and let's hope it doesn't hit the Bahamas as badly as it hit Haiti. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:16, 30 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Considering that it's expected to spend a long time (two days, I think?) twisting and turning 'round and 'round in the Bahamas last I heard from the NHC...--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:26, 30 October 2007 (UTC)

Actually, I'd like to note that the CMC was created for entertainment purposes only! And I'm thinking more Newfoundland into Labrador, then into Greenland and up the coast. Might give you some weather, I doubt it though. And the winds are pretty strong at Canadian land-fall. This won't be a re-Juan, at least in my view, but then again, there's always a chance... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:38, 30 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Dang the CMC's model is just nuts. Then again, Noel has been pretty unpredictable lately. :S - Enzo Aquarius 16:22, 30 October 2007 (UTC)

Is it just me, or does every forecast bring it eerily closer to a juan track? 71.7.217.94 13:45, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

Also, it looks like it's starting to lose tropical characteristics. Isn't that a bad thing? Being cold core and all, and able to intensify over cold water, that spells bad news for Nova Scotia, because every damn frigging update brings it closer to a juan track. off by maybe 100 miles. They say 60k winds by landfall from yarmouth to cape breton, but if it acquires extratropical status before then, there's a fairly big chance that the storm will be stronger than Juan, but moving much slower than Juan. Thoughts? 71.7.217.94 13:45, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

Exactly what I said will happen is being forecasted. Once it enters extratropical transition, the baroclinic energy will rapidly intensify it. 5% chance of Cat 4-5 they say, 10% for Cat 2, 10% for Cat 3. Look at the size of the monster.. Nova Scotia may be in for a fucking *sorry for language* big storm. 71.7.217.94 16:02, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

Lets start a betting poll. I bet $25.00 that this storm comes within 50 miles of the landfall area that Juan did, and within 50 miles of the track that Juan took. (50 to right and left of forecast track of Juan)

Latest advisory confirms my beliefs I've been talking about for the past day or two. 71.7.217.94 20:46, 1 November 2007 (UTC)


 * There is a page for this, if you want to... the betting pools... a sub-page of this one. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  21:56, 1 November 2007 (UTC)


 * "...SO THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NOEL TO BECOME A CANE." God I love Franklin. He's better than anybody I've ever seen at being professionally unprofessional. -- SkyFury 23:03, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

Hurricane Noel
...Which is right now. Noel will be a hurricane for only one advisory, because it will most likely be ET by 5:00 AM EDT tomorrow. Flight level 81 kts, and advisory up but not linked to on the main page. Found this info on Storm2K. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:06, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Pressure drop of 17 MBR from 5PM to 8PM advisory. 71.7.217.94 00:15, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

And, it looks like Nova Scotia is in for some trouble :( I hope it turns westward more and smacks maine instead! 71.7.217.94 00:17, 2 November 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the NHC track has it making landfall about 10 miles from my house. While I was lucky to escape any damage from Juan (It wasn't even cloudy.), I doubt it'll happen this time. I'm not looking forward to a possible 70 mph storm headed straight to my house. But seriously, why do things like this always happen on the weekend? Gah. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 01:55, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Cainer, NHC says 75k winds. I think that's fairly conservative, too... The size of the storm is comparable to Katrina; look for yourself. The wind field will expand greatly with extratropical transitioning etc... one hurricane force wind model shows all of nova scotia experiencing hurricane force winds.71.7.217.94 02:10, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Advisory update. Still Hurricane, winds notched upwards. Forecasted to stay above Hurricane Strength.71.7.217.94 02:49, 2 November 2007 (UTC)


 * The NHC needs to fix it's graphical model, states Hurricane all the way to Newfoundland and Tropical Storm by Greenland... :S - Enzo Aquarius 03:20, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

I hope it takes the route that brings it into the bay of fundy, to be honest. less damage to most of the populated areas. 71.7.217.94 03:31, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

But... I have a feeling it will make landfall closer to Halifax, pass through Truro, over P.E.I, through Labrador, and into greenland


 * Enzo, that is the actual forecast. There is nothing in the way of what is most likely going to be one of the more... interesting ETs we'll see this year. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:40, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

I find the newspaper insulting. canadian hurricane centre says it wont even be near hurricane force, with winds GUSTING to 90 km/h. All indications from NHC state that it will keep hurricane strength long after landfall71.7.217.94 10:50, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Update.. Noel still hurricane. Bad part? Forecast shifted to nearly directly over halifax.71.7.217.94 16:19, 2 November 2007 (UTC)


 * Woah. It looks like a re-Juan is certainly possible. Howvever, the tracks are shifting west, towards the Bay of Fundy. That could be good news for Halifax, but bad news for Massachusetts, which both GFDL and HWRF predict will see Cat. 1 force sustained winds. However, it could still be bad for Halifax. How would you like it if, you tune in to the TV Saturday evening to see where the rain is coming from, and it said, in the local 24 hr forecast, winds 120 km/h and rain 250 mm? I'd be scared, to say the least. Since the forecast drifted west, the USA could also be severly affected by the storm. Why, all the more reason to retire you with! Noel is already responsible for 120 or so deaths, and I fear the death toll could even rise above that of Felix. Retirement of Noel is certainly possible. Could also be a snowstorm for parts of Quebec. Usually, the bay of Fundy would zap out a hurricane pretty quickly, but with such a big storm and an extratropical transition expected at hurricane-strength, It might even have time to strengthen. It's not slow-moving at all, just enormous. That's why, adding the fact that it pretty much stalled over Cuba, the Dominical Republic and Haiti saw so much rain that caused all those mudslides. With this new forecast, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Maine, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI, Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Greenland could all see damage from this storm. Let's see what it does, and let's hope people have not forgotten the misery of Juan and will be prepared for this. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:35, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

I don't know where you get that information from, because the track guidances shifted closer to halifax...71.7.217.94 19:30, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

Regardless though, the storm is so large that even if it makes landfall in new brunswick via fundy, or hit maine, all of nova scotia will still feel sustained winds above 50 MP/H most likely. 71.7.217.94 19:34, 2 November 2007 (UTC)

ET Cyclone Noel
So yeah. Now extratropical, last advisory, yada, yada. Still barreling down the Atlantic toward Canada at increasing intensity (now they take it up all the way to 80 KT). And NO, when I talk about ET Cyclone I don't mean the big red spot. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:59, 3 November 2007 (UTC)


 * Noel is a beast, don't anybody forget that. It's storms like this that give fishing on the Grand Banks its infamous reputation. I just hope this isn't as bad as the Perfect Storm of 1991 (which was raising Hell at nearly the same date as Noel is). -- SkyFury 02:37, 3 November 2007 (UTC)


 * I wasn't implying the storm is getting less dangerous, more making commentary on the fact that, due to the nature of their business, they have to stop tracking the storm now when it is actually growing stronger than ever because it's not tropical anymore. It makes sense, but it,s still somewhat...you know.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 02:54, 3 November 2007 (UTC)

Landfall in Nova Scotia. Models are split; some say off coast, some say bay of fundy. Who knows... chances of a re-juan is still good. I'll let you guys know how the storm is, anyways. I'm in the Hurricane wind zone.71.7.217.94 08:48, 3 November 2007 (UTC)

Noel?
Why has the discussion on Noel been archived? I mean, I know its extratropical, but it's still out there and kicking.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:43, 3 November 2007 (UTC)


 * It shouldn't have been. God, I hate when people forget their archive etiquette. Who wants to move it back? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:22, 3 November 2007 (UTC)
 * maybe its worth Expanding the storm Archive banner to include ALL NHC Numbered storms ie 01L and then leaving the sotrm that do not develop in the monthly archives  as we are not going to get up to 2005 levels this year when we are only on storm 16 unless the near dead atlantic churns up another Record equalling month - also this place does get Cloggged up when we get several things to archive bellow the current disscussion Jason Rees 01:18, 4 November 2007 (UTC)

ET Noel on Maritimes
Noel is progressing into the Maritimes. Pressure is down to 992 MB where I live. 979 MB at the closest point to the center, but the center is still 200 miles from this city. Tree damage, small tree's are uprooted - and I'm 700 miles from the storm center.

The strongest winds are to occur in about 3:30-4:00 hours.

May be in for a rough night...PI, Over and out. 71.7.217.94 03:56, 4 November 2007 (UTC) P


 * Ouch, man. I'm seeing the sat pictures, and just OUCH. If you're dead right now, I'm sorry I ever hated you and kept it too myself. But if you're alive, I've always thought you were a good person. Now please don't hurt me. ; ) -- <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk)  <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  12:09, 4 November 2007 (UTC)

Haha I'm not dead but we're without power. That storm was very bad; the center was over 800 miles from us when the power went out. Trees were ripped in Cape Breton; over 1200 miles from the center. Pressure was 958 MB when I went to bed, and the worst of the storm wasn't even here. Went for a drive the next day, and we were still getting TS force winds - 21 hours straight of TS force winds.

http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/photos/xlarge/cvk041107smithhouse_RGB_11-05-07.jpg

That picture accurately describes the damage; that place is about 100 miles further up the coast than us, and well, that damage is pretty consistent.

This storm wasn't as bad as Juan, that's for sure, but due to the widespread effects, it's one for us in the Maritimes to remember.

-PI

POST EDIT:

http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/photos/xlarge/cvk041107smithhouse_RGB_11-05-07.jpg

Read that article if you want some more information on the strength. They refer to it as a Tropical Storm. Wind gauge picked up sustained winds of 135 km/h for periods of 1 to 2 minutes. Strongest gust was 182 KM/H.

And of course, there's the high likelyhood that those figures aren't accurate as I don't think the gauge has been calibrated in a very long time. I would estimate highest gusts at between 150-160, and sustained winds at about 120.

AoI - Northwestern Caribbean
The site, apparently, did not accept my post. If you can see it's there. Good day to you sirs! <font color="#000000">IP At School <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  16:16, 26 October 2007 (UTC)


 * I AM ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN FOR OCTOBER! THIS IS THE TRUE MEANING OF A [weather-related] MIRACLE! Seriously, it hasn't rained this much the whole year, and we haven't been in drought this bad the whole year. Isn't that just spectacular? Man, I feel good. Four days of rain! (Two and a half so far). Anyway, this thing is dead. But there are things much, much more important : ). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  19:07, 26 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Never mind, this thing looks awesome. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  11:15, 27 October 2007 (UTC)


 * If we see anything out of of this, it'll be well into November. -- SkyFury 07:06, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Hey, it's dead again! Waddya know? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  12:22, 28 October 2007 (UTC)


 * TD Sixteen scared it off. -- SkyFury 17:40, 28 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI: North of Algeria
Yep, another Mediterranean subtropical storm. Really nice pic here:. Bit funny how the Mediterranean has had a more active October than the rest of the Atlantic. 71.7.210.87 22:15, 29 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Not really, all our storms have been stronger :P. Nice spot though, beautiful storm. Never liked their sat pictures, but they get the job done. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:21, 30 October 2007 (UTC)

AoI: North of Azores
Okay, look there and you might not see anything, maybe only a few clouds. However, nearly ALL models call for its immediate development into something with a pressure lower than the surrounding Bermuda-Azores high. Here's where the excitement begins. The models strengthen it and take it south-southwest. It could then strike anywhere from South America to the US to the British Isles. There's almost no telling how strong it will be, since it will likely happen weeks from now. Some of the models are often wrong, yes, but when they all agree, it almost always forms. Total agreement has been responsible for many of the storms this year. Sometimes they start to agree on development weeks in advance of the actual formation. Look at any of the moe.met.fsu.edu models that are current, and you will see that low slowly forming and drifting south. This is another large high-breaker, but given the right circumstances, it can develop. Some models call for TS status prior to its westward recurvance. Let's see what it does. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:42, 31 October 2007 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
It needs to seriously develop FAST, like a la Humberto or Lorenzo, to do anything. Though it may have luck in the Pacific? SargeAbernathy 13:47, 3 November 2007 (UTC)

From the 11:30 TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

Looks like this could easily become Olga, or at least TD #17. We'll have to watch.SargeAbernathy 15:19, 3 November 2007 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't doubt it if this did become Olga. This area of the Caribbean can support quick intensification quite easily, as shear is low and steering currents are week. Storms like Beta and Martha both formed here in October/November, and they both became hurricanes. Not that I expect this to become a hurricane, but it could still become a Tropical Storm. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 15:44, 3 November 2007 (UTC)


 * It'd have to be pretty quick. I'd say it has a very good chance of getting a number, though. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:23, 3 November 2007 (UTC)


 * Nevermind, inland now. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  12:11, 4 November 2007 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
The Azores low has been invest'd. The following from NHC: A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. --Patteroast 03:39, 6 November 2007 (UTC)

Retirements At A Glance
It's currently peak season for the Atlantic and we've had storms from Andrea to Ingrid. My question is simple: What names do you think may stand a chance of retirement thus far? My speculation and chances are:
 * Andrea: 5%. May storm. Minimal damage, but indirectly responsible for 6 deaths.
 * Barry: 2%. Little damage and killed fewer than Andrea, although one death was direct.
 * Chantal: 5%. Almost completely forgettable while tropical.
 * Dean: 95%. Smashed Jamaica and killed 40+ total.
 * Erin: 20%. Added to already major flooding problem. 18 total deaths, half direct. Klaus-like.
 * Felix: 90%. Over 100 deaths in Nicaragua. Severe damage likely.
 * Gabrielle: 5%. Forgettable.
 * Humberto: 30%. Only one death, but going by USD values at the time of the hurricane, surpassed Diane and Lili in terms of damage, and both of these were retired. Outside shot at retirement.
 * Ingrid: 0%. Want to talk about your duds?
 * Jerry: 0%. Bigger dud than Ingrid, but odd location of formation.
 * Karen: SA.
 * Lorenzo: Some idea of damage would be nice here. (~4 deaths)

So overall, I think the retirements for this year will definently include Dean and Felix. Erin may also get retired if the monetary damages from it are high enough when released and Humberto may get retired if the current estimates are correct. Any other ideas or opinions? Jake52 My island 02:08, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I say Dean and Felix will definitely get the boot. Anything else thus far is extremely doubtful to no retirement period. - Enzo Aquarius 04:32, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I say Dean 75% (there have been much, much worse) and Felix 70% (same reason). Humberto 15%, Erin 9%, the others I don't see getting retired in a million years. If you want, I will say that these a wee bit conservative, and I do hope that Felix is retired, Dean maybe (since those were the nicest SOB storms I've ever followed in this basin, maybe scratch Wilma). All four of these could be conceivably retired, but I put the chances of all four at around zero. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 11:35, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I think Felix has a better chance of getting retired than Dean. To be clear, I think both should be retired, but Felix is Nicaragua's worst hurricane since Joan in 1988. I rank deaths higher than damage because deaths have a greater psycological impact than damage. Retirement is based on the impact it had on a society as a whole. I believe that storms with high death tolls have a greater impact on a culture than those with just high damage. This is why the non-retirement of Hurricane Gordon infuriated me to a greater extent than most people. -- SkyFury 19:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Just like Megadeth trying to get over Jethro Tull winning the "Heavy Metal" Grammy over them, eh? Anyway, being Cat 5 does not guarantee a retirement (see Emily; the Cleo that got the name retired was not a Cat 5 but a Cat 4 that did some damage afterward). Felix will be retired, and right now I'd say that Humberto is slightly more likely to be retired than Dean (if Jamaica doesn't nominate Dean for retirement, see it in 2013!). 147.70.236.93 21:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

I never consider deaths particularly important unless they total above 300. In the case of storms like Mitch, non-retirement is not an issue, on the other hand, storms like Wilma are also guaranteed to be retired. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:23, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * About Jamaica and Dean's chances, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Jamaica and not Mexico that got Gilbert canned? What I find stunning is that this season seems like a mock-up 1988 when it comes to the likely candidates for retirement. Dean was a Gilbert imitator (though not as powerful) and Felix resembled Joan (though so far not as deadly, but more powerful, plus Joan survived Central America). Jake52 My island 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'd say Felix will be retired. It killed over 100 people. Dean I'd say there's about a 75% chance. I think the only other storm that really has a chance to be retired is Erin, but that's not likely. What did Humberto do to get retired? I don't see it. Bob rulz 22:46, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Gilbert killed over 300 people in Mexico, I think that kinda sealed that deal Jamaica just was a little icing on the cake. The WMO started using drugs in the early 1990's. They retired Klaus, which killed four people and then they didn't retire Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 which killed 122 people in Venezuela, nor did they retire Gert, which killed 70-90 in Mexico. Then the whole Gordon thing in 1994 which is inexcusable. Gordon was nothing short of an outrage. Period. Other than those, the only other blatent non-retirement I can think of was 1955's Hilda. -- SkyFury 00:46, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You always talk about Gordon dontchya? That was kind of a [very large] blunder on their part. I think it has to do with being a very weak storm at that stage. It's almost like Jeanne (although she was retired). I hold my estimates, though, and plus or minus ten is applicable to Dean and Felix. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:59, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I lost a significant amount of respect for the WMO after I heard about Gordon and you bring up a good point about the intensity. I think Bret wasn't retired for the same reason. I think it took the Allison disaster to make the WMO realize that a tropical storm could actually do significant damage and that it wasn't just negligence. -- SkyFury 18:55, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

We're lucky something like that hasn't happened again. There might actually be a third hit around there; a lot of models are predicting something to go through there. This is a really sucky year weather-wise. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:10, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Third hit where? -- SkyFury 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You guys are wrong about Chantal, BTW IMO. It caused around 5 million dollars in damage in the area around Placentia Bay. Its residents are still angry the government didn't do enough. So it's not entirely forgettable. Thus, I give it a 3% chance. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:00, 17 September 2007 (UTC)


 * "Storm does less damage than Bill Gates does annually! Global crisis at hand!" WMO does NOT have enough money for all that crack. Third hit Texas. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:28, 17 September 2007 (UTC)

Keep in mind that the WMO can't retire a hurricane if no affected country nominate it for retirement, IIRC. I believe I heard Mexico was pretty poor on nominating...--132.211.210.107 23:07, 18 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Gert in 1993 was not nominated. Not sure about Bret. Gordon was nominated. Hurricane Klaus was nominated not by the U.S, but by Guadalupe. There was supposedly some damage to historic structures there but I don't really know the reasoning behind its nomination. Several Pacific retirements are a mystery too (Knut, Iva, Fefa, Fico). -- SkyFury 23:50, 18 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Here's my stats:
 * Andrea:5% or lower - The storm did nothing much, just a couple fatalitites and .77 inches of rain.
 * Barry:5% or lower -Unless a report comes out of substantial damage, I'd put a no on this one.
 * Chantal:12.5%- 5.5 million in NFL is not much, although its got a say in what it wants to do with the name.
 * Dean: 95-100%- Couple billion in damage, over 40 deaths, pretty much a retired name.
 * Erin: 15% - When and if the TCR comes out, the damage total could be substantial enough for retirement. We'll have to wait however.
 * Felix: 90-95%- Damage report will come out at some point, also 130+ deaths.
 * Gabrielle: 5% or lower - Pretty much the same as Andrea.
 * Humberto: 15-20% - If that 900 million was correct, we could've had a retirement here. Let's wait for the TCR.
 * Ingrid: 0% - First fishspinner of the season, Not a chance.
 * Jerry: 0% - Second fishspinner of the season, Not a chance.
 * Karen: Unknown - Hasn't affected land yet, and very weak
 * Lorenzo: Unknown - Wait till damage reports come out.

So far that's my stats.Mitchazenia 20:55, 28 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, here's my prediction.
 * Andrea: 6%. Off-season storm, killed 6 people, attained hurricane-force winds prior to formation, caused minimal damage, was quick to get an article.
 * Barry: 4%. Killed 3 people, affected reigons of Mexico later to be hit by hurricane Dean, near-direct hit on Wiki-headquaters as tropical storm, survived shear, tropical storm force until hitting an area near Boston, major rainfall on Georgia, dumped a little rain in S Ontario.
 * Chantal: 5%. Killed no one, caused nearly 6 million dollars of damage in Newfoundland, people affected by damage still angry, bridge destroyed, flooding in Newfoundland.
 * Dean: 90%. Long-lasting category 5 cape verde hurricane, direct strike on Chetumal City as Category 5, caused rising oil prices and fears of strike on Texas, caused nearly $ 4 billion in dammage and killed more than 40 people.
 * Erin: 22%. Major flooding in already-soaked Texas and Oklahoma, killed nearly 20 people, partially responsible for 2007 Midwest Flooding, responsible for nearly 20 more deaths and over 100 million dollars in damage, caused oil prices to rise, affected more than 10 states, tropical storm-force winds over Chicago, destryoed many cars and bridges.
 * Felix: 85%. Killed over 130 people, destroyed Miskito Cays completely, broke numerous records, Mitch-like, category 5 landfall in Nicaragua, nearly strengthened to unimaginable strengths had it not gone through an ERC.
 * Gabrielle: 3%. No one killed, Minimal damage, heavy rain around Carolinas, early fears of major hurricane, absorbed by strong low near Newfoundland.
 * Humberto: 27%. Killed one person, quick strengthening to Category 1, near-direct hit on Houston, flooding in Texas and Louisiana, half a billion dollars in damage.
 * Ingrid: 1%. Complete dud, nearly strengthened had wind shear not destroyed it, dissipating before hitting Puerto Rico, fears of a near-Floyd, no article.
 * Ten: 1%. Possible remnants of Humberto, action taken by New Orleans, near strengthening to Tropical Storm, quick to get an article, tornado in Florida.
 * Jerry: 1%. Complete dud, passed between Newfoundland and Azores, merged with storm near British Isles and Greenland.
 * Karen: 1%. Complete dud, near strengthening to hurricane status, dissipated before hitting Puerto Rico, original fears of hurricane heading for United States.
 * Lorenzo: 23%. Broke Humberto's record, hit area near that affected by Dean, 5 people killed, rain on Mexico City, quick strengthening.
 * Melissa: 1%. Complete dud, near re-Vince, uncertain early trajectory, quick dissipation, tied September tropical storm record.
 * Well, there you go. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:47, 3 October 2007 (UTC)


 * The storms i think that will be retired are Dean Felix and Noel if the latter becomes a hurricane as NOAA will Request Retirement for all 3 Jason Rees 01:57, 1 November 2007 (UTC)

You think Noel will be retired with the number of people it's killed? Bob rulz 04:51, 2 November 2007 (UTC)


 * 118 dead? Yup. If this one isn't immortalized I'll feel very sad for the state of the human race. -- SkyFury 02:40, 3 November 2007 (UTC)
 * Please... don't get what's-his-name carrying on about Gordon yet again. 66.217.49.208 15:51, 3 November 2007 (UTC)


 * Heh-heh, yeah, that's a good one, ya gotta admit that much, Eric. I'd give Noel a slightly higher chance of Felix than being retired, but it all depends on the damage reports (which one has higher percentages from me, that is.) I'll revise my estimates here.


 * Andrea- 0% - No, no, NO. Oh, and by the way, NO.
 * Barry- 1% - Well, you know, KLAUS got in. But still, no.
 * Chantal- 2% - Five mil is not worth a retirement.
 * Dean- 85% - Really significant damage in Jamaica, fair amount of deaths, and somewhat significant damage elsewhere. The intensity might also bias WMO more towards the "retire" side.
 * Erin- 5% - Only slightly worse than Barry, but there was the Missouri incident, and Texas was in flood stage, so I'm bumping it up a little bit.
 * Felix- 80-95% - Depends on the damage report; small, then the minimum, high, then the maximum. I say this because of the intensity, and the number of deaths (Stan was retired even though 80 of the deaths were recognized, although the damage was fairly high).
 * Gabrielle- 1% - It did less damage than help, no deaths, and damage reports are so low that they have not come out yet. Plus, the whole ordeal just sucked, interesting-wise.
 * Humberto- 15% - Did a fair amount of damage, but not really enough to be retired. However, the fast intensification might give a bias toward retirement.
 * Ingrid- negative 54% - I will KILL anyone who nominates this storm.
 * Jerry- negative 22% - I will only brutally maim anyone who nominates this storm.
 * Karen- negative 10% - Well, you know ; ).
 * Lorenzo- 12% - Unless the damage report is substantial, there isn't too much about this storm to get it retired. However, my reasoning is somewhat similar to Humberto.
 * Melissa- 0% - I mean, come ON people.
 * Noel- 80% - Same reasoning as Felix, except without intensity bias. May be a low estimate if really bad damage occurs in the Maritimes.

<font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:50, 4 November 2007 (UTC)

For such a "quiet" season, we've had one hectic September!
Eight named Atlantic storms so far this month, and the initial NHC advisory/discussion for TD #14 indicates the possible arrival of Melissa on Sunday (30 September). Even the infamous 2007 had only five named storms in September... Whew! 147.70.242.40 15:47, 28 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You mean 2005, of course. Of course, that's an excellent point, one that also applies well to a season about five years back, where the record this season will almost certainly tie was set. I predict, however, that there will be some more intense storms even after the end of September. This isn't your ordinary season, that's a pretty much universal concept. And could all you anons who post so many things get a username? It's not easy to quote "147.70.242.40"! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:02, 28 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Some people cherish their anonymity :) 67.155.250.26 20:11, 28 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Then we'll just have to give you userpages and nicknames ; ). But a good point has been made often on Wikipedia that you have more anonymity if people don't know what your IP address is. You could also do what I did. Back on topic though, I don't think this season yet qualifies as "quiet" either ; ). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:42, 28 September 2007 (UTC)

I created my first account! <font color="#000000">PI <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:43, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Now, if only we can persuade the rest of them >: ) <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 11:37, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Quiet my ass. This season has been decidedly unquiet. We've had 13 storms and it's not quite October yet, two Category 5s and eight storms this September, which matches a record. There's been nothing quiet about this season. -- SkyFury 19:28, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The real reason for the claims of "quiet" is the lack of hurricanes, which can be explained by all of the tropical cyclones except two forming in high shear or close to land. Back to you, Eric. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  20:24, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * At this time in 2001, the Atlantic season had this exact same number of hurricanes and finished with nine. Also, I believe Karen was briefly a hurricane. It's impossible to know what October will bring. It was the most active month in 2005, with seven storms including the strongest storm ever measured in the Atlantic and three other hurricanes. Go tell the folks in Nicaragua it's been a quiet season. -- SkyFury 22:51, 30 September 2007 (UTC)

And with the SSTs not cooling down any time soon, you probably have a good point there, Eric. Currently, wind shear is also looking good for the Caribbean, which is the breeding ground of October storms. Cape Verde is starting to cool down, which is a sign we'll probably have some typical October storms, probably a few more majors still out there, eh? This has been your 7:45 news update on the 2007 False Accusation scandal. And here's our other forecasters with their predictions. Signing off, this is Internet Protocol. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  23:48, 30 September 2007 (UTC)


 * And now a word from our sponsor. "Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead! Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead! Head-on, Apply directly to the forehead!" Cyclone1 (23:42 UTC -1/10/2007)


 * "And now, our new product! First-on, ultra welfare relief! Apply directly to the congressman!" You are so damn good at that, always getting the joke in at the perfect time. You remind me of a great humorist who doesn't actually live to far away from you OR hurricanes (read the bit in his new book about the 2004 hurricane season, it's hilarious). Anyway, October doesn't look like it'll be a pushover either with this new 90L system coming onto the scene. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:47, 2 October 2007 (UTC)


 * Too bad most of October turned out to be pretty lame. So much for that active late season. Bob rulz 04:53, 2 November 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, and coupled with all the rest the season has done... No wait, never mind, it's been pretty cool, at least to my recollection. Sorry about that. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  10:41, 2 November 2007 (UTC)
 * Well, for someone who has experienced seven direct hits by hurricanes, "lame" is good... and Noel is certainly making things "interesting" for Maine and the Maritimes. 66.217.49.208 15:47, 3 November 2007 (UTC)

The only reason this season has been "lame" is due to the formation of storms in the most hostile places (see above post). Other than that, this season has been extraordinarily active. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:53, 4 November 2007 (UTC)


 * And there is no location in the western hemisphere that has suffered seven DIRECT hits by hurricanes, unless you're saying that you're REALLY old. You may mean that you have gotten at least the fringes of seven storms. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">(Talk) <font color="#0000ff">(The Project)  00:54, 4 November 2007 (UTC)
 * No, but if someone has moved several times in his life, it is very possible. I can claim only five direct hits myself, but then again, I've moved only nine times in my life. 66.217.33.129 03:54, 5 November 2007 (UTC)
 * Oh, by the way - have you seen what happened to Avon Lake, Florida, in 2005? 66.217.33.129 03:55, 5 November 2007 (UTC)
 * Not much - but there was quite a bit happening there in 2004: Charley, Frances, and Jeanne. My brother lived there that year, then moved to Dania Beach the next year - just in time for Katrina and Wilma. He was nailed five times in fifteen months! 147.70.242.40 22:12, 5 November 2007 (UTC)

I'm not even 25 and I can claim 90 direct hits. Key word is claim.

But in reality, the answer is 2. PI over and out 71.7.217.94 23:20, 5 November 2007 (UTC)


 * You're in Canada. That's highly unlikely. 72.205.60.115 23:56, 5 November 2007 (UTC)