Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is coming up, and the betting pools are up. I'll make some predictions for this season later, but if any of you guys have pre-season predictions, feel free to post them below. Ryan1000 03:56, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * CPHC will be merging their site to the NHC's in May. This should make finding advisories for CPAC storms even easier. Won't change the pace of CPHC TCRs though. Here's some other changes for this season.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:40, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * ...and the CPHC site is gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:24, May 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * The 2019 Pacific hurricane season has now officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  00:00, May 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Another AOI south of Mexico is at 0/20 rn. The EPac has been somewhat active lately.  Sandy 156   :)  00:29, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now at 10/40.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * The EPac is finally firing up for sure now. C'mon, become Gil! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:26, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/50 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:02, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Coming up to 20/50. Beatissima (talk) 02:28, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invested and now 30/40.  Sandy 156   :)  20:13, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:12, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E
Unexpectedly formed some hours ago, ATCF has it as a TS rn. Hopefully it doesn’t steal the name Gil, which will likely steal the name on the next advisory. Time for Gilicia.  Sandy 156   :)  19:23, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gil
40/1006 now, we have Gilicia. Ugh...another EPac name stealer and failicia.  Sandy 156   :)  20:37, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * I should call Gil Gilma’s brother because both of them failed.  Sandy 156   :)  20:41, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like we had another troll on the wiki...no worries, gone. Anyways, for the record, Dalila lasted as a 40 mph TS for 4 advisories and produced 0.49 ACE units, so if Gil doesn't manage to hold onto its current intensity for that long, it'll out-fail Dalila, and that's saying more than I can imagine...It has no chance to strengthen in the wake of Flossie's outflow and stable air setting in. I personally don't think this should've stolen Gil off the lists, but oh well...try again in 6 years. Ryan1000 22:03, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looking at the active storms header. Apparently the planet is having a tropical storm party. Beatissima (talk) 06:22, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gil
Dying out fast...Ryan1000 12:31, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gil
Became post-tropical just recently. Gil outfailed Dalila by being weaker than 1 millibar and having a shorter lifespan. What a fail.  Sandy 156   :)  04:29, August 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dude, what an epic failure. Gilfail was such a disgrace and belongs in the Hall of Shame! A name was wasted for real this time, and it even outfailed Dalila also because it lasted a shorter amount of time. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:00, August 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Poor Gil. Everybody is beating up on him. Beatissima (talk) 19:04, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Gil's fault for stealing a name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:48, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Again, a disturbance is currently situated south of Mexico and is currently 0/20.  Sandy 156   :)  01:03, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Might become Henriette as it moves out to sea. Ryan1000 12:34, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:05, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 10/60. Conditions are only "somewhat" conducive though according to the NHC. C'mon, become Henriette! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:24, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested, but down to 20/40.  Sandy 156   :)  23:32, August 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * At this rate, unless it significantly organizes now, it might be a bust. Only a few more days of favorable conditions remain. Chances seem to be in favor of the below system becoming "Henriette" instead, sorry to say. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:09, August 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/40. Still not expecting development from this system.  Sandy 156   :)  05:11, August 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest update has it at 40/40, but if it does develop, I don't expect more than a depression. Better not somehow steal "Henriette". ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:43, August 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30. ph  tracking  09:59, August 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 60/60.  Sandy 156   :)  00:44, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

The system has become more better defined with thunderstorm activity more concentrated near the center. Excerpt from the TWO: "If this recent development trend continues, then advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical storm later tonight while the disturbance moves generally west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico." Please not a name-stealer! If it did steal a name it could be worse than even Gil! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:04, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine-E
Alas Steve, it looks like it will come to pass. 35 mph/1006 mb as of latest advisory and it is forecast to become a weak, short-lived TS. It appears as if the mantra for this season is quantity over quality. Send Help Please (talk) 03:09, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Henriette
And it stole Henriette...sigh, another epic fail. Ryan1000 09:33, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, at least we've already had two Category 4s in Barbara and Erick... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:22, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Henriette's pressure is lower than Gil's by 1 mb. Heh. ~ KN2731 {talk} 16:09, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, another pathetic epic failure. Now tying Dalila's peak, only has really limited time if at all to become any stronger and surpass both Dalila and Gil. EPac needs to stop feeding us these failures and give us another amazing storm! At least we've already had Barbara and Erick though if that helps matters... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:25, August 12,2019 (UTC)
 * ok lmao MargeSimpson420 (talk) 19:44, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is pathetic, 3rd failicia for the EPac. At least its better and slightly stronger than Gil though. But still, the EPac needs to stop with those fails.  Sandy 156   :)  04:25, August 13, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Henriette
R.I.P. epic fail. Try harder in 2025. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:23, August 13, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Several Hundred Miles SW of Baja
New on the 5-day outlook at 0/20. Geez, we could be up to Ivo before my birthday. Compare that to the Atlantic's activity (or lack thereof) so far. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:24, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0/40.  Sandy 156   :)  23:33, August 9, 2019 (UTC)


 * Increased to 0/50.  Sandy 156   :)  05:11, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invested and up to 20/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 16:07, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 30/60, but models on Tropical Tidbits don't seem to intensify it beyond TS. I hope Ivo won't be another epic failure... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:28, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 40/60. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:23, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 40/50, probably another bust or epic fail unfortunately. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:10, August 14, 2019 (UTC) UPDATE: it's 30/40, yeah it could bust... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:17, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20, shouldn't become anything significant at this point. What a bust. Ivo will most likely come from the southeast of Mexico 0/30 disturbance. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, should be gone soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:23, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/0, just waiting for it to drop off. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, August 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * And now off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: S-SW of Manzanillo
Yet another one, this one at 20/30. Beatissima (talk) 15:24, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tidbits. I still think the above system (the 0/50 one) will be Henriette. I don't see these other ones doing as much, maybe weak failures/name stealers at the very most. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:13, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

5-day percentage decreased to 20%. Yeah, I don't expect this to do much. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:43, August 10, 2019 (UTC)


 * This AOI shouldn't have even been invested...anyways, it'll merge with 92E before it does anything, and 92E probably won't do anything either. Ryan1000 04:27, August 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  00:45, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Hawaii
An Akoni candidate. 0/20. Beatissima (talk) 13:43, August 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/30, hope we get Akoni from this disturbance.  Sandy 156   :)  00:46, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this is looking hopeful for Akoni by the later part of the week. Hopefully it does not bust! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:08, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately down to 0/20. Please don't bust.... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:24, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/20 now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:13, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
Invested and up to 20/20.  Sandy 156   :)  04:50, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back to 10/20. I would be a bit surprised if this became Akoni, it seems more likely to develop after moving into the WPac. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:26, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10, sad. It might not even become anything unless it develops in WPac. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:56, August 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:13, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Southeast of Mexico
On the 5-day outlook at 0/30. If Ivo doesn't come from 94E then this could very well be it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:13, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40 and forecast to cause heavy flooding in Central America. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Up to 30/70 and invested, expect Ivo to possibly come by next week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:10, August 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 40/80. The GFS model has it peak at a C4 hurricane and miss the Baja California Peninsula completely.  Sandy 156   :)  00:11, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80. Yeah I have a feeling this could be a major. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:10, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 50/90 which means Ivo (or a TD) will almost certainly come in the next 5 days from this. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:33, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90! Expect Ivo soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  18:39, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90, might be a TD tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:15, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: 1000 Miles SW of Baja
An area of disturbed weather has appeared with a 10/10 chance of development. I don't expect much from this. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, August 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 20/30.  Sandy 156   :)  00:21, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested now per Tropical Tidbits, but down to 10/20. Beatissima (talk) 17:51, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * You got them mixed up actually, this one has moved west since my last post and is now 1300 miles WSW of Baja. This is the 20/20 one. Would be cool if they all developed and we're up to "Kiko" by the end of next week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:15, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Nevermind, not going to develop. Down to 0%. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:09, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off from the TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  04:57, August 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: SW of Baja
Another one at 20/20. Beatissima (talk) 17:49, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually this is the 10/20 one about 850 miles SSW of Baja. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:19, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oops. *blushes* Beatissima (talk) 00:45, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * It's ok, it's easy to mix things up when you got multiple AOIs going. Up to 20/40, Juliette anyone? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:35, August 18, 2019 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested and up to 30/50. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:08, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * This basin looks like it's grilling hot dogs on the TWO. Beatissima (talk) 02:41, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 40/60. I hope we can see Juliette (if 95E becomes Ivo) from this system.  Sandy 156   :)  04:58, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 60/80. Actually looks like a race to see who will get "Ivo" first, although I think it is likely 95E will be it. The loser gets "Juliette". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  18:40, August 19, 2019 (UTC)

Post-season Changes
Four-E's TCR has been released.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:24, August 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * That was fast...4-E's TCR was finished less than a month after it formed. But wasn't surprising, considering how short-lived and insignificant it was. Anyways, duration was cut a day short. Now do Cosme, Dalila, and Gil in that time frame, NHC. Ryan1000 09:33, August 12, 2019 (UTC)