Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC Best Track for last year is out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07W
Potent tropical depression was picked up very early this morning by JMA, followed shortly after by the JTWC. Currently passing through the Northern Marinara Islands. The models are making this a strong typhoon before slamming into the Delta of the mighty Yangtze. Shanghai is in its sights. Looks to be about a Category 3–4 before making landfall on Shanghai at similar intensities.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:42, July 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, thanks for copying exactly what I said on chat! :^ - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:19, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Soulik
The JMA has upgraded this depression to a tropical storm and named it Soulik, a name submitted by Micronesia which is the name of a traditional Pohnpei's chief title. The JTWC has followed suit in upgrading the depression to a tropical storm. It is not looking too good, as the JMA predicts a 55-kt severe tropical storm in 72 hours. I believe this could become our first official typhoon of the year. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:47, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Update: The JMA expects a typhoon from Soulik in approximately 69 hours, and the JTWC expects a Category 3 typhoon from the system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:49, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

This will be trouble for mainland China it would probably reach cat 4 or 5 in the next few days.Allanjeffs 11:12, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Soulik
Well, look at the difference six hours can make! Soulik already has winds of 55 knots and a minimum pressure of 980 mbar, displacing Rumbia as the season's strongest storm!!! And it is only getting worse from here. The JMA now predicts a typhoon in 24 hours. At this rate, I predict Soulik will be a super typhoon in three to four days!!! This storm is somewhat like 1997's Typhoon Winnie. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:25, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * This is also coming from a storm with unusual origins as a cold-core low. It sure has grown in size and gusto, and has no problems in intensifying at the moment. GFS is being a little more aggressive with their forecast this morning – 925 mbar for peak is what the model is saying. However the model is showing a recurve just off the coast of China before a final landfall on Korea. We'll wait to see where Soulik positions itself to determine where it'll go.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:48, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * It'll be a typhoon soon, but hopefully not super-powerful; the last thing China needs is a super typhoon heading for their largest city. Shanghai has seen some near-misses from typhoons in the past few years, but they haven't been overrun by a super typhoon since 1956. I hope Soulik doesn't get there. Another close call for China was last year's Vicente, which came within 40 miles of downtown Hong Kong as a 135 mph category 4 storm, which could've made it the worst typhoon to hit the city since 1937, if not ever, but thankfully he turned away at the last minute. I don't like the looks of Soulik. This is an ominous storm... Ryan1000 18:27, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * And believe it or not, the JTWC has upgraded Soulik to a typhoon. The JMA also is very close to upgrading the system to a typhoon. This intensifying storm currently has 60 kt winds (10-min) and a 975 mbar pressure. According to the JMA, we could see "Typhoon Soulik" in 12 hours. This storm is just geting worse and worse... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:27, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning)
Now already classified as a typhoon by both the JMA and JTWC; Soulik is wasting no time to intensify in what is not even the best conditions in its forecasted path. JMA's cone of doom brings it over Taiwan in 84 hours.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:55, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Halfway across the globe and we have Soulik in the books. Even though the cone of doom brings it into Taiwan, a landfall is unlikely; however, we could still see a landfall along eastern China before the westerlies picks it up recurves it into the Korean peninsula. Soulik is bear watching and more potent to be a major event compared to Chantal. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  01:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one has super typhoon write on it mainland China would suffer a direct blow as is not forecast to hit Taiwan so a major blow would be the most logical from this system.Allanjeffs 01:32, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, talk about intensification! I did not expect this fast of an upgrade! According to the JMA, Soulik could have a 930 mbar pressure in only 72 hours. And the JTWC takes the typhoon almost directly over Shanghai. This is a nightmare storm in the making... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:44, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

It looks like Soulik is trying to build the northern part of its eyewall, and has maintained a ragged eye that has been fluctuating throughout the morning. However, its overall appearance and organization has been strengthening – strong rainbands have built to the north of the storm. Models still pinning for an intense typhoon; ECMWF has 924 mbar in its latest model run.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:06, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Goodness, Soulik is pulling a Felix!!! Per JMA standards, Soulik has not intensified significantly, but per JTWC standards, Soulik has exploded from a Category 1 typhoon to a Category 3 typhoon overnight. As its organiztion increases, super typhoon status is becoming more likely, and we have a destructive storm in the making. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, this is shaping up to be a monster storm. It also seems like the eye is finally maintaing itself, and the eyewall is nearing completion. Not sure why the JTWC is being super conservative in their forecast, but the JMA is expecting a 920 mbar typhoon in the coming days.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:33, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * This storm is starting to scare the crap out of me. I mean, look at how well-organized this thing is. It's got devastation written all over it. GFS is now showing a direct hit to Shanghai as a major typhoon in about 3 days. They haven't seen that in July in a long time. Chantal may be getting a lot of attention but Soulik will be far more destructive than Chantal ever has a chance to be. Ryan1000 16:01, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * The eye is clearing out, and the Dvorak numbers have risen to Cat 4/5 levels. Seems like nothing is stopping Soulik from intensification thus far.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 16:37, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Soulik is probably a cat 5 now or super typhoon and Ryan remember that Chantal is going to make landfall in the poorest country of all America,Haiti and they are still 300,000 people without a house so that could be bad as she continues to strengthens.Allanjeffs 18:43, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * The thing about Chantal is it's moving at 29 mph, so it won't be over Hispaniola long enough to cause significant flooding, unlike other storms that have hit them in the past, such as Gordon or Hanna, which stalled over Haiti. Soulik is heading towards China's largest and the world's 4th largest city as a powerful, soon to be super, typhoon. A category 3/4 hitting Shanghai directly could be almost as bad, if not worse, than a major hurricane hitting New York City. The low-lying terrain of Shanghai, combined with the rivers going right through the heart of the city, make for a devastating storm surge scenario from a powerful landfalling typhoon. The last powerful storm to run right over Shanghai wasSuper Typhoon Wanda of 1956. It made landfall near Shanghai as a 150 mph super typhoon and it killed nearly 5700 people from a devastating storm surge that nearly wiped out the city. Imagine what Soulik would do if it went on the same track as Wanda. Shanghai's population has tripled since 1956, so that means that Soulik could kill 3 times as many people as Wanda killed, should he follow the same track she did. Not to say Chantal isn't going to do anything in the Atlantic but Soulik is a nightmare storm. They better have evacuations for Shanghai and the surrounding cities VERY soon, or it's very possible Soulik could kill tens of thousands of people. I hope that China will escape the worst of Soulik, but mother nature won't be holding anything back. Ryan1000 20:36, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

To add on to this bad news, the JMA has upgraded Soulik to a 90 knot (105 mph), 935 mbar typhoon. And the JTWC currently has this monster typhoon as a 115 knot (130 mph) Category 4 typhoon. So Allan, Soulik is not a Category 5 super typhoon yet, but it could easily become one. Also, for comparison, Soulik is only 5 mbar stronger than Typhoon Bopha last December, the most recent super typhoon prior to Soulik. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Convection warmed a little bit for a time period a few hours ago but is starting to warm again in the southern two quadrants of Soulik.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:14, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's eye has cleared out now, but it's still 130 mph. Soulik will continue intensifying through tomorrow, probrably to a super typhoon, and head west in the general direction of Taiwan. It'll turn north in response to a trough moving over northern China (likely sparing Taiwan from a direct hit), but moving it ever so closer to the Shanghai area. It'll probrably make landfall south of Shanghai, move northward over the city, then turn east towards the Korean Peninsula by 4-5 days. None of this is good news for the folks living there. I hope they start evacuations now. Ryan1000 23:51, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don`t see why Ryan Soulik will not make landfall in Shanghai.Allanjeffs 00:35, July 10, 2013 (UTC)

Update: Soulik is at 100 knots (115 mph) (10-minute) or 125 knots (145 mph) (1-minute). Located just below the super typhoon threshold, the storm is already the strongest Western Pacific cyclone since Typhoon Jelawat last September, which recorded a 905 mbar pressure. And the JMA expects a 915 mbar, 105 knot (120 mph) (10-minute winds) typhoon from Soulik. Shanghai is going to endure a system rivaling possibly even 1956's Typhoon Wanda... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:20, July 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * On a side note with Chantal, NHC noted in one of their forecast discussions that it's possible Chantal might be dead right now and is instead an open tropical wave. Also, it went further west than anticipated last night, so it'll miss most of Hispaniola to the south, except for parts of southern Haiti, which I don't think will get hit that severely from Chantal anyways. Soulik is still 145 mph, but I'd be surprised if he isn't a cat. 5 later today, as he continues west-northwest towards mainland China. Ryan1000 11:31, July 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * After hours of nonstop intensification, Soulik is starting to slow down. However, the threat to China is still very immediate. Also, on a side note, the typhoon has entered PAGASA's area of responsibility, and the agency has designated the system Huaning. However, I do not believe the Philippines will report any impact from "Huaning" (Soulik). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:08, July 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Taiwan would take the brunt of the system it may save China from a direct hit.Allanjeffs 13:04, July 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 120 kt (1-min). --HurricaneMaker99 15:17, July 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wind shear and dry air will probably weaken her more.Allanjeffs 16:25, July 10, 2013 (UTC)

According to the JMA, Soulik is still the same intensity. And actually, the JMA predicts a slightly stronger system in the next couple of days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:11, July 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * The northern half of Soulik's eyewall rescently collapsed, now it looks more like a cat 3. I still think the full force of the storm will miss Taiwan to the north and hit China instead, but maybe not Shanghai directly, which is some good news, but a landfall there still can't be ruled out. Also, I don't think Soulik will be more than a cat 3 at landfall in China as of now, if that. Ryan1000 19:53, July 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to a high-end Cat 2 by JTWC's standards (95 kt (1-min)), but forecast to restrengthen to a Cat 3. --HurricaneMaker99 13:23, July 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * By JTWC's standards, Soulik is at 110 kts (1-minute), so it's a Category 3 typhoon. The JMA has reported a 930 mbar pressure and winds of 100 kts (10-minute) . Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:57, July 11, 2013 (UTC).


 * Soulik is down to a Category 2 typhoon. It's at 85 kts (10-minute), according to the JMA, and at 95 kts (1-minute) according to the JTWC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:11, July 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like Soulik might not end up being the worst-case scenario for China, and it probrably won't be a re-Morakot for Taiwan as it passes just north of them into China. China won't get as much of a storm as they initially could've, but Soulik could still pack a powerful punch. Ryan1000 01:40, July 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * Soulik is approaching Taiwan as a Category 2 typhoon with 90 kt (1-min) winds. --HurricaneMaker99 13:12, July 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * I knew it would hit Taiwan sadly for Taiwan its becoming better organized the good news it only have and hour until landfall.Allanjeffs 18:42, July 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Soulik is almost done. The typhoon has made landfall over Taiwan and is weakening rapidly. Winds are down to 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute) per the JMA, and the JTWC assesses Soulik as having winds of 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute) . Although northern Taiwan, particuarly Taipei, will take a beating from Soulik, by the time it reaches Mainland China, the JMA expects it will barely be alive, predicting a 65 kt (75 mph) (10-minute) landfall. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:33, July 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Typhoon strength = barely alive? I disagree with that. Granted, it's nothing compared to what Soulik was at its peak, but still. --HurricaneMaker99 00:42, July 13, 2013 (UTC)

Soulik pulled off a dud, which is a good thing I guess. The westerlies didn't pick up on Soulik and it wont become baroclinic. Plus, an ERC choked Soulik to hell and it never regained any intensity. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  05:50, July 13, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Soulik
Soulik's done. It has rapidly collapsed to a tropical depression following its Mainland China landfall, and it should dissipate completely within the next 24 hours. Also, the JTWC has issued its last advisory on Soulik. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:23, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Soulik
And now Soulik's last chapter has ended. Ryan1000 13:43, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08W (Isang)
New one in WPac, just east of Luzon. Forecast to become TS Cimaron before heading northward into the Taiwan straights, past China, and eventually to North Korea. Ryan1000 17:23, July 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Cimaron (Isang)
Has made landfall in Luzon twice, and even became stronger. Now named Cimaron by the JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:17, July 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * He probrably won't be anything exceptional, but at least it's something to track. Ryan1000 19:42, July 17, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cimaron
Hats off. Ryan1000 16:25, July 19, 2013 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
I am not sure if this is the right designator, but the JTWC has reported a tropical disturbance near the Philippines. It has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:33, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's actually 91W. The WPAC has been so boring overall this year. Outside of Soulik, there has been basically nothing. In the past few weeks there has been only one invest which has gotten to a medium chance of developing, then it died out. What happened to this basin? Yqt1001 (talk) 18:20, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Jolina)
I am not sure if it is this system, but the JMA is now tracking an unnumbered tropical depression. And Yqt, I do agree with your above statement. From January 2010 onwards, the WPAC has overall been incredibly boring. 2010 was the year the WPAC literally shut down. Only 15 tropical storms (counting the unofficial Tropical Storm Domeng), 11 PAGASA-named depressions, and seven typhoons formed, all record lows. Aside from Megi, nothing extremely significant happened that year. 2011 was not any better. Sure, it had Songda, Talas, Nanmadol, and Washi, and the Philippines had a bad season, but the number of typhoons that year was awful for a WPAC season. 2012 was okay. It had Bopha, Sanba, Jelawat, and Haikui, but the season was not really an enigma. So far, 2013 is starting horribly for the WPAC. Only one typhoon (Soulik) and a bunch of other fish storms so far. Hopefully, the season can pick up the pace... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:17, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Idk if WPac is in an inactive period or something, but I'm starting to lose respect for tracking this basin, at least, unless it delivers a bunch of storms again. Ryan1000 00:21, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * I am happy though the more inactive is this basin the Atlantic tend to be more active all the years that Andrew mention had a lot of name storms in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 01:16, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * PAGASA has named the depression Jolina. It has caused lots of flooding in the Philippines. Anyway, the depression is at 30 kts/1002 mbar and still has not been classified by the JTWC. However, it now gives it a medium chance of forming into a tropical depression by their stand rads in the next 24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:10, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * There's a chance that this could become TS Jebi, but I doubt it. The Philippines are getting lots of flooding from this. The West Pacific has been too inactive during the past few weeks.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:04, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * In all honesty, we don't want the West Pacific to be in an active cycle of seasons, because when it is, it can produce a series of devastating storms that can cause tremendous damage and loss of life, as was the case with many seasons in the 60's to early 90's. The WPac almost always has devastating storms every year, but at least it's not as much now as it was in the past, when they had their active cycle at the same time EPac did. However, if the ATL is active vise versa, then it has nasty impacts...Hopefully most of the big Cape Verde storms in the Atlantic this year become fishies. Ryan1000 19:40, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * This depression has still not been classified by the JTWC, but it is moving into favorable conditions. Also, the JTWC gives the invest a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jebi
Named by JMA, unknown to the JTWC still. Supposed to peak at 45kts and 990mb. EDIT: Actually JTWC has numbered it and has it as a tropical depression according to their version of ATCF. Yqt1001 (talk) 01:10, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
There are enough storms. -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:41, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - 5% - 2 deaths are not going to do it.
 * Auring - 0% - Missed most of Philippines.
 * Bising - 0% - Paralleled the Philippines.
 * Shanshan - 0% - An excuse of a TS.
 * Crising - 20% - Not enough.
 * Yagi - 0% - Fail.
 * Dante - 0% - Went the opposite way.
 * Leepi - 0% - Nope.
 * Emong - 0% - No.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Not too much damage.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned away from the Philippines.
 * Rumbia - 25% - I doubt it.
 * Gorio - 30% - Nah.
 * Soulik - ?

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions:

JMA: PAGASA:
 * 1) Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all.
 * 2) Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not.
 * 3) Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths.
 * 4) Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi.
 * 5) Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 6) Rumbia - 35% - One hundred sixty-four deaths, along with $4.53 billion (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca a potential retirement candidate. Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * 7) Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good.
 * 8) Rumbia - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported.
 * 9) Jebi - TBA - Still Active
 * 1) Auring - 0.1% - No.
 * 2) Bising - 0% - No way.
 * 3) Crising - 2% - Not really.
 * 4) Dante - 0% - No way.
 * 5) Emong - 0.05% - No.
 * 6) Fabian - 0% - No way.
 * 7) Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it.
 * 8) Huaning - 0% - No.
 * 9) Isang - 0.01% - No.
 * 10) Jolina - TBA - Still Active

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Might as well make mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Those are mine for now. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - <1% - Not happening.
 * Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha.
 * Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan.
 * Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this.
 * Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area.
 * Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse.
 * Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse.
 * Auring - 1% - Not enough.
 * Bising - 0% - Seriously?
 * Crising - 4% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening.
 * Fabian - 0% - What?
 * Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen.
 * Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines.
 * Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines.

Here's my predictions:

JMA names
 * Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough.
 * Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement.
 * Yagi - 0% - Failure.
 * Leepi - 0% - No way.
 * Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it.
 * Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse.
 * Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so.

PAGASA names Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it.
 * Bising - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Crising - 2% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Hell no.
 * Emong - 0.1% - No.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way.
 * Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse.
 * Huaning - 0% - Nope.
 * Isang - 0.1% - Not happening.