User blog:YE/2010 PHS TWO predctions for next storm

5 AM June 29

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

11 AM July 29

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING NEST 48 HOURS.

5 AM July 29

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

11 PM July 29

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 680 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

5 AM July 30

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

11 AM July 30

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 720 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SINGS OR ORGANIZATION AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

5 PM July 30

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 740 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

11 PM July 30

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 760 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT DRIFTS GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

5 AM July 31

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 810 MILES WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM ENTERS A LESS CONDUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

11 AM July 31

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED 830 MILES WEST OF MEXICO HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIALED AT 2 PM PDT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Best track

2 PM July 31   30 knts/1007 mb

8 PM July 31   35 knts/1004 mb

2 AM August 1  40 knts/1002 mb

8 AM August 1  45 knts/999 mb 2 PM August 1   40 knts/1001 mb

8 PM August 1  40 knts/1000 mb

2 AM August 2  45 knts/1001 mb

8 AM August 2  40 knts/1003 mb

2 PM August 2  35 knts/1005 mb

8 PM August 2  30 knts/1008 mb

2 AM August 3  30 knts/1009 mb

8 AM August 3  30 knts/1010 mb