Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season

AOI: West of Costa Rica
Another disturbance with 0/20 of formation. -- Roy 25  18:11, June 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * At 0/30 now; possible depression may form late next week. ChowKam2002 (talk) 00:42, June 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Appears increasingly likely that this will merge with 94E. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:01, June 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/50 now.No.1 Mobile (talk) 14:56, June 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/60, I spy potential Emilia. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:25, June 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/70. Emilia is almost here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:13, June 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/80 now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:44, June 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/80 now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:44, June 25, 2018 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Now invested. ChowKam2002 (talk) 17:09, June 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60/90. -- Roy 25  01:26, June 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * This should become Emilia soon. The system below should become Fabio. The EPac is really active for June! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:38, June 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Unusually active, too. In the context of the East Pacific proper, excluding the Central Pacific, the only other EPac seasons to have their 5th named storm this early in the season were Enrique of 1985 (which was followed by a record-early date for almost every EPac proper storm onward, except the last few, which 1992 holds) and Elida in 1984, the year before. Ryan1000 09:20, June 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70/90. Doesn't look particularly organized yet, but will probably be Six-E in about 12-24 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:27, June 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * At 100/100, this should form at any moment in the next 12 hours. ChowKam2002 (talk) 18:33, June 27, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
AYOOOOO WE GOT A NEW TD BABES! §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 22:39, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one should be Emilia. I do recall GFS strengthening this to a very strong hurricane. -- Roy 25  23:28, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope Six-E defies the NHC forecast. Current NHC forecast only brings this system to a peak of 50 knots (60 mph), due to surface sea temperatures being only mkderately conducive in the next few days. But I think we all agree that we do not want a Danfail 2.0 here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:35, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * We all saw how Aletta was only forecast to become a cat 1 at first and it exploded into a strong cat 4 due to its small circulation, like with most EPac hurricanes. Since this likely won't affect land like Aletta, hopefully it can defy the current forecast and become strong too. Emilia hasn't been a particularly lucky name anyways; of the 7 previous incarnations of Emilia, only the 2012 and 1994 incarnations of Emilia became (major) hurricanes. She could use a little luck for once. Ryan1000 00:13, June 28, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Emilia
And she's here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:25, June 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Current forecast only calls for a 60 mph tropical storm, but it could always go above that. Ryan1000 10:50, June 28, 2018 (UTC)

It seems Emilia is currently at 50 mph, and her circulation is on the eastern end of the convection. Since Emilia hasn't organized as much as Aletta managed to do, I'd probably rule out hurricane strength at this point. That, and Emilia is moving over cooler waters anyways. Ryan1000 12:21, June 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60 mph. At least it doesn't look like another Danfail... in fact I'd even root for this to briefly become a hurricane. It seems somewhat possible to be honest. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:00, June 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sadly down to 40kt. It seems like hurricane strength is out of the question. This should slowly weaken due to wind shear, dry air, cold SST's, and a stable atmosphere. This storm seemed like it was doing so well... ChowKam2002 (talk) 02:47, June 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 35 knots. Sigh. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:23, June 30, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Emilia
Now down to a tropical depression. -- Roy 25  20:38, June 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still a 30 mph/1007 mb tropical depression a day later. I guess she doesn't want to give up just yet. Should finally be dead by tonight or tomorrow. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:45, July 1, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Emilia
And NHC has issued the final advisory. Down and out. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:08, July 2, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: West of Costa Rica II
And another AOI appears in the 5-day TWO. 0/20 as of the most recent update. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:16, June 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/40. We could get Emilia and Fabio back-to-back. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:37, June 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Currently 0/50. Hoping this becomes Fabio. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:13, June 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/60. This will likely be Fabio in about a week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:45, June 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 0/70. At the end of this week, a tropical depression will likely form. ChowKam2002 (talk) 18:27, June 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/80. -- Roy 25  01:24, June 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * A very big difference between the 2-day and 5-day percentages. This should become Fabio by the weekend, assuming Emilia comes from the above system before then. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:41, June 26, 2018 (UTC)

For what it's worth, the GFS turns both of these into powerful systems at the moment (especially Emilia), while the Euro is more conservative with Amelia and doesnt even develop this AOI past a depression. Too early to tell really, I just hope both of them are treated better than poor Daniel, and I definitely don't want this season to have as many pathetic storms as the last one. Send Help Please (talk) 05:13, June 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Was 0/90 earlier, now it's 10/90 and on the two-day outlook. Pretty sure 0/90 is the maximum gap between the two- and five-day percentages, since "near 100%" is usually only given when formation is already imminent. In my 3 years of tracking (prior to this year that is) I have never seen the NHC give such high percentages for a system not even on the two-day outlook. Current conditions must be really favorable. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:21, June 26, 2018 (UTC)

If yall seen the models, Emilia might be a C2, Fabio might be a C4/5, Gilma might be a C4 and Hector and Ileana are going to be hurricanes. Who here saw the canes? FABIO PLEASE LET PUBERTY HIT YOU LIKE A TRUCK you gonna be as yuuuuge as marie 2014 yeet  §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 11:58, June 27, 2018 (UTC) Mate, we could even be rivalling 1992 at the rate we're going. I feel we gonna get a retired name this year, and multiple category 5s. No wonder 1994/2015 are analogues. At this rate we could be ending July with Lane to be honest  §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 12:01, June 27, 2018 (UTC)

Chances of formation have slowly risen to 30/90; it isn't too organized now, but the environment is really conducive for development. ChowKam2002 (talk) 18:33, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 40/90, and if models are right, this should be a very strong Fabio. If this hold true, as well as the formation of Gilma, this I believe may be one of the most active June in both the number of storms and ACE. -- Roy 25  23:31, June 27, 2018 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested. Now 50/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:26, June 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * As I mentioned before Roy, only 1984 and 1985 had their 5th named storm (Elida and Enrique, respectively) this early in the season. If this becomes Tropical Storm Fabio sometime before July 3rd, it would be the earliest 6th named storm on record in the East Pacific, surpassing the tie between Fausto '84 and Fefa '85. The below AOI would have to become Gilma before July 7th to beat Genevieve of 1984 for the earliest 7th storm on record. Ryan1000 11:05, June 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Given that 5 days from now is July 3 and 97E already has a 50% chance of forming within the next two days I'm going to say this will indeed become Fabio before July 3. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:00, June 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah I knew that Ryan, thus why I said "one of the most" active June. Anyways, this is now up to 60/90. -- Roy 25  01:49, June 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * It looks increasingly likely this will become Fabio, it has 4 more days to do so if it wants to beat the record for earliest 6th storm. In terms of June ACE, 2010 holds the record with 37.22 units (mostly thanks to the very rare June cat 5 in Hurricane Celia, as well as Darby), but the rest of the 2010 EPac season was pretty much dead. This year, on the other hand, is already looking poised to be a very active season, if not one of the most active on record, with this, an AOI behind it, and the long-range forecasts from the global models predict even more activity in the EPac following the AOI behind this during July. Ryan1000 04:41, June 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70/90, and a depression is likely to form over the weekend. Ryan1000 12:21, June 29, 2018 (UTC)

90/100, Fabio is almost here...Ryan1000 18:59, June 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * If this is named by 23:59 UTC June 30, it's officially the most active June ever recorded. It's currently very close to becoming a tropical cyclone anyway, so it is possible that the record for most active June will be broken by this system. I bet this year is going to be insanely active. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:04, June 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven-E
Now a depression, and also forecast to be a hurricane. Let's hope its named to break that record lol. -- Roy 25  20:39, June 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * A June cyclone by the skin of its teeth! And with a 90-kt forecast peak to boot! Unfortunately it's too late for the June activity record to have been broken operationally (always the chance post-analysis could determine this to have been a TS by now), but at this point, unless this thing unexpectedly falls apart, the record for earliest 6th EPAC named storm is as good as 2018's. -Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:56, June 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'd like Fabio to get a little strong this time around; his only incarnation as a major hurricane was the 1988 Fabio. Wouldn't hurt to see him get a little lucky this time. Although, the current forecast peak is only 105 mph. EDIT: As a side note, even if this doesn't get upgraded to Fabio at this time in reanalysis, this is the earliest date for the 7th storm (of any intensity) to form in the EPac proper. Ryan1000 22:08, June 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * For what it's worth, Fabio's 2012 incarnation did come within just a hair of major hurricane status; indeed, the TCR noted that Fabio could have briefly hit Category 3 intensity between 6z and 12z on July 15. (Also worth mentioning that 2012's incarnation of Carlotta also peaked as a 95-kt Category 2; had it and Fabio both been a mere 5 kts stronger, the 2012 EPAC season would have had five consecutive major hurricanes, as Bud and Daniel were C3s and Emilia was a C4). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:53, June 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Forecast peak has gone up to 95 knots. Large size may mean slower intensification in the short term though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:12, July 1, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fabio
Named and is now forecast to hit major hurricane status. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:55, July 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * And confirmed to be the earliest 6th named storm in the East Pacific. Ryan1000 10:08, July 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * 45 kts, 1000 mbar, now predicted to peak at 110 kts around 48 hours. I find it funny that if Fabio manages to get even slightly stronger than forecast and reaches Category 4 intensity, then exactly half of this year's EPAC storms so far will have become C4s, with the other half failing to even attain hurricane status. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:55, July 1, 2018 (UTC)

Apparently the DSHP model predicts this storm to become a borderline category 5 by hour 72Nickcoro (talk) 16:37, July 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 55kt and 996 mb, NHC forecast now brings Fabio to a category 4. Even with this forecast, several models even bring this storm to a category 5, as was mentioned by Nickoro. ChowKam2002 (talk) 20:48, July 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 65 mph/996 mb. It's really beginning to intensify fast. With the very favorable conditions ahead, I won't be surprised if it tops Category 4 or even reaches C5. And I can root for Fabio to reach that intensity because it's a fishspinner. C'mon, Fabio! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:47, July 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Fabio is starting to develop a tiny circulation and he could explode fast; if it does, I wouldn't be surprised if Fabio becomes a cat 5. He already looks prime to RI if you check out the latest imagery on him (as a side note, I changed the tropical cyclone imagery page on HWiki's main page, if you haven't seen it yet, it's this page, since the old one is being changed). Ryan1000 01:27, July 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, this is a very amazing thing. I had a feeling Fabio would go to a strong storm this year. Anyways, as Ryan said, this thing is prime to RI, and I would not count out the possibility of a high-end C4 or even a C5. T  G  2 0 1 8 01:36, July 2, 2018 (UTC)

Fabio's intensification has paused briefly overnight as it hasn't yet developed a tight inner core, but when that tiny pinhole eye develops, RI is inevitable and he'll likely end up as a strong cat 4 or 5, before weakening over colder waters. He might even become a cat 3 before today is over. Ryan1000 11:21, July 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70 mph/994 mbars. Fabio is definitely going to be a hurricane today. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:26, July 2, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Fabio
OI OI!!! OUR BLONDE LONG HAIRED ITALIAN WARRIOR IS A HURRICANE! WILL BE A MAJOR ON TUESDAY!! §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 14:51, July 2, 2018 (UTC) anyone gets the reference btw §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 14:52, July 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Pinhole eye developing...RI anyone? Ryan1000 17:12, July 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Mate, I am absolutely disappointed with this storm... So much expected a week ago from this storm and now I can only see this peaking at Cat 2. So disappointed. I wanted a major from this.  §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 00:52, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * It is actually forecast to become a low-end C3, but that possibility you mentioned above may happen too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:49, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm a bit disappointed too. I thought it would be at least a C2 by now. Hopefully it still does become a major hurricane. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:05, July 3, 2018 (UTC)

It seems Fabio's nature went broad more than centralized lately, but I still expect a major hurricane sometime later today or tomorrow. It didn't RI as fast as I thought he would though. Ryan1000 08:37, July 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Mate, I hope he doesn't f*ck it up like Hilary...  §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 12:25, July 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Rara, please don't use profanity like that without censoring it. Anyways, Fabio is quite impressive looking, with cloud tops of near -70C at the moment. I definitely expect a C3, but not a C4. T  G  2 0 1 8 13:06, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * ok mate anyway eho remembers hilary from last year? i hope our long blonde haired hero doesn't end up like her, fabio needs to hurry up or else...like literally i had so much hope for this storm even to become another marie of 2014 but it looksto not be the case all because of wind shear and dry air f-cking up the system... AND I'LL BE MORE P-Ssed OFF IF IT STAYS LIKE THIS. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 13:10, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, that would really be disappointing. Like Leslie in 2012, when it was forecast to become a major but only became a C1. Those storms are fairly uneventful. And Hilary last year was just plain boring, to be honest. T  G  2 0 1 8 13:12, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * well someone on storm2k unofficially said he was raised to 90kts... but fabio mate PLEASE COULD YOU AT LEAST BECOME A C3?? YOU HAD EVERYTHING IN YOUR PLATE TO BECOME A C4+!!! I WILL ESPECIALLY BE P-SSED OFF IF SH-TTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE LIKE THIS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE SEASON! Mate, this is the only basin I am tracking this year. It has the best names and all the hype surrounding this season... and I really really want Lane to become a major and idk what thw conditions will be like come August when Lane is most likely to form... but anyway Fabio please. do. not. disappoint. us. mate. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 13:21, July 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hurricane FABIO
 * As of 12:00 UTC Jul 03, 2018:


 * Location: 15.2°N 115.0°W
 * Maximum Winds: 90 kt Gusts: N/A
 * Minimum Central Pressure: 969 mb
 * Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
 * Radius of Circulation: 300 NM
 * Radius of Maximum Wind: 25 NM
 * Eye Diameter: N/A


 * Fabio now C2 on ATCF T  G  2 0 1 8 13:39, July 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * Not much of an eye on satellite though. Hopefully it can clear one out soon, Fabio doesn't have much time left to intensify (at most 24-36 hours). ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:02, July 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * 105 mph, C2. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:43, July 3, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: West of Costa Rica III
And yet another one pops up on the NHC's East Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, this is at 0/20 for now, but at the rate this season is going, it's possible that this and the two storms in front of it could also develop into Emilia and Fabio. That would put us at Gilma sometime through the first week of July. This is starting to remind me of the rapid start and active July in years like 1985, 2015, and maybe even 1994 (which also used this naming list, though this year may not be as much in intensity). Either way, this EPac season is really kicking up for so early on, and a strengthening El Nino event could potentially make it one of the most active years ever. Ryan1000 19:39, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well mate I can actually see this year even rivalling 1992 at the rate it's going... I can sense so many long-tracking category 4's... This is only just the beginning. Models are even pointing at Hector and Ileana forming middle of July, both at hurricane intensity.  §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 20:05, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * The East Pacific is definitely going wild, wonder if it'll carry over to the Central Pacific like it did in 2015. Send Help Please (talk) 22:38, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * If this AOI develops into Gilma... I think we're gonna see an exceptional Pacific hurricane season this year. The WPac, Atlantic and NIO are all inactive as of the moment, and this may be EPac's time to shine. Bring it on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:25, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still absent on the 2-day TWO but it's now at 0/30 as of this writing. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:27, June 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is crazy. We could be up to Gilma in early July. The EPac going insane, and it might eventually rival years like 1992 and 2015 in terms of final activity. The El Nino will make it even more active... ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:07, June 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * The AOI is now back down to 0/20. I am not sure if this will form. ChowKam2002 (talk) 23:46, June 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dropped further to 0/10 for some reason. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:27, June 30, 2018 (UTC)

And this went bust all of a sudden. Nothing will come from this AOI. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:10, June 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gone for good. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:55, July 2, 2018 (UTC)

July
It's officially July now by UTC, though we'll leave the above storms up until they dissipate, and by then well put them in the June archive. Ryan1000 00:21, July 1, 2018 (UTC)