Forum:2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season/Kyarr

97A.INVEST
New invest on Tidbits in the Arabian Sea west of India, strangely not yet mentioned at all on neither IMD's nor JTWC's outlooks. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:44, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow on JTWC, although IMD doesn't give it a chance of formation within the next 5 days (yet). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:01, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now "High" chance for 96-120 hours on IMD's RSMC bulletin. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:37, October 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to code orange on JTWC. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:04, October 22, 2019 (UTC)

TCFA up, but I think the system is classifiable. Strangely enough, the IMD has not yet updated its outlook. The outlook on the site is 2 days old. The invest already looks like a DD or CS. -- Java Hurricane  06:24, October 24, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 03
It's been upgraded to a deep depression and expected to intensify to a VSCS while approaching Omen and Yemen. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:07, October 24, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
35 kt per IMD, 40 kt per JTWC. Forecast to slowly recurve 200 miles off Konkan coast before turning West towards Masirah Island and Muscat. -- Java Hurricane  04:38, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Per MW imagery, Kyarr is forming a low-level eye. Kyarr looks poised for RI, and is now expected to become an ESCS. -- Java Hurricane  06:47, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
Now a SCS, 65 mph (55 knots) according to IMD and JTWC, pressure is currently 992 mbar. Still near India at the moment but Omen needs to prepare for this potentially dangerous storm. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:30, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
65 kt per JTWC and IMD. Forecast to reach 110 kt by JTWC. IMD still takes this towards Masirah Island, but the JTWC'S forecasts turns it to the N halfway between India and Oman. Also, some destruction has been reported from Goa - falling trees, power lines and flash flooding. No casualties so far. -- Java Hurricane  04:06, October 26, 2019 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
It has continued to rapidly intensify and is now an ESCS. 120 mph (105 knots) and 966 mbar according to IMD and a whopping 130 mph (115 knots) according to JTWC. It looks like Fani's standing as the strongest of the season might be in jeopardy. Models seem to differ on where it will go - GFS ensembles on Tidbits recurve it towards a landfall near the Pakistan-India border while CMC ensembles take this offshore Omen and towards the Gulf of Aden. The forecasts on JTWC and IMD seem to be in CMC's favor for now with a southwest curvature offshore Omen. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:00, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 125 kt from JTWC. 100 kt per IMD. Dvorak is at T7.0 from JTWC and ADT. JTWC broke constraints. SAB still at 6.5. Could be 135 or 140 kt at 09Z.--'' Java Hurricane  02:42, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * BREAKING NEWS!!! BREAKING NEWS!!! BREAKING NEWS!!! THE IMD FORECASTS KYARR TO BECOME A 140 KT SUCS BY 3-MIN WINDS!!!! --'' Java Hurricane  03:50, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

Super Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
Alert! Alert! Alert! Kyarr has become a Super Cyclonic Storm with winds of 125 kt per IMD and a pressure of 920 mbar. Kyarr is the strongest NIO storm since Gonu. -- Java Hurricane  06:30, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oh. My. God. I never expected such intensification. If this continues, it might even become the most powerful in NIO history. 😮 ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:51, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually, Kyarr seems to be weakening. The W ring is broken and only beginning to recover. Dvorak down to T6.5. Might reach 130-135 kt at 09Z, though it does have 18 more hours to strengthen before SSTs drop off. -- Java Hurricane  07:15, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC forecasts a peak of 155 mph, not sure if that would pan out, but fortunately, Kyarr is expected to weaken before it nears Oman on Friday. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:32, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Held by JTWC to 130 kt. Could reach Category 5 overnight, when convection is stronger. -- Java Hurricane  08:52, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

I don't usually post as much on the NIO forum, but this big storm caught my eye lately. JTWC brings it to 155 mph 1-min by tomorrow, though it might be able to briefly hit 160 before weakening. Kyarr will weaken considerably and probably turn southwest while remaining offshore the Arabian Peninsula, and might not make a landfall until Somalia down the road, at which point it'll be much weaker or might even dissipate due to less favorable conditions there. Ryan1000 11:38, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dvorak back to T7.0. -- Java Hurricane  11:42, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * It looks like this surpassed Gonu's intensity to become the strongest named cyclone ever in the NIO but still falls short of being the most powerful ever in the basin, a record that's currently held by the 1999 Odisha cyclone. There's a chance Kyarr might even surpass that cyclone. Currently 155 mph (135 knots) according to JTWC and 150 mph (130 knots), 915 mbar according to IMD. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:35, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

Surpassed Gonu's pressure but is just short of Gonu's 1-minute winds. Still has some time to possibly crack cat 5 though. Also, fun fact: Kyarr is the only super cyclonic storm in the NIO of the 2010's decade. Ryan1000 17:07, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * I don't think it will anymore, seems to have peaked at 135 knots (155 mph) earlier today and is now down to 130 knots (150 mph) according to IMD and JTWC. Pressure currently remains 915 mbars though. It's pretty funny that the first super cyclonic storm of the decade managed to JUST make it in before the decade's end, so unless an extreme miracle happens, it's looking likely to be the only one of the decade. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:23, October 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Weakened a bit to 125 knots (145 mph) according to IMD and a pressure of 920 mbars, while JTWC retains it at 130 knots (150 mph). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:31, October 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down further to 120 knots (140 mph)/940 mbar according to IMD and 125 knots (145 mph) according to JTWC. Its motion is slowing down east of Omen and is expected to turn southwestward soon. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:13, October 29, 2019 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr (2nd time)
Down to ESCS intensity, 115 knots (130 mph) and 943 mbar according to the IMD and 105 knots (120 mph) according to JTWC. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:32, October 29, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr (2nd time)
Weakened to a VSCS, 85 knots (100 mph)/968 mbar (IMD) and 100 knots (115 mph) (JTWC). It's now starting the southwestward turn and could make landfall as far as Somalia before dissipating. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:50, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr (2nd time)
Weakened further to a SCS and expected to begin accelerating towards Somalia. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:46, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Getting weaker and should be down to a Cyclonic Storm pretty soon. Now 50 knots (60 mph)/988 mbar according to IMD and only 40 knots (45 mph) according to JTWC. Weakening should be more gradual from here on out. ~  Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  04:20, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Kyarr (2nd time)
Downgraded to a Cyclonic Storm, currently 35 knots (40 mph) according to IMD and JTWC with a 996 mbar pressure. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  16:03, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression Kyarr
Down further to a deep depression, 30 knots (35 mph)/996 mbar (IMD). JTWC has issued their final warning. At this rate it won't make it to Somalia still as a TC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  21:22, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Depression Kyarr
Almost dead...25 knots (30 mph) and 1002 mbars. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:30, November 1, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Kyarr
And it has weakened to a well-marked low pressure area. Expected to affect Somalia in the next couple days. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:21, November 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Poof. --'' Java Hurricane  15:47, November 4, 2019 (UTC)