Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season/July-August

July
Is officially here by UTC, but nothing is out in the Atlantic right now. We still have 10 days to beat Emily '05 for the earliest 5th storm, but that's not looking too likely with the way the Atlantic looks right now. Ryan1000 02:17, July 1, 2016 (UTC)

Now it's only 3-4 days away. I don't think this season will beat Emily '05 Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:18, July 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * It won't. The Atlantic is an unfavorable hellhole for tropical systems currently. Any TC probably won't come until later this month, and it's possible we might be like 2012 and not get anything at all this month.  St  eve  82  0   19:05, July 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * Something may pop up at the end of July... let's wait and see what happens. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:08, July 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: African Tropical Wave
The GFS model has been very consistent in developing a small, weak tropical cyclone south of Cape Verde in about 6-7 days. The strongest tropical wave of the season is likely to exit the coast of Africa next Tuesday, and this one could develop in the eastern Atlantic MDR before it encounters less favorable conditions in the western MDR (dry air). No NHC mention yet, but it could be mentioned tomorrow or Saturday. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 00:09, July 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully, this becomes Earl. I've been getting tired of the inactivity of the basin this month. Since it will encounter less favorable conditions in the western MDR, this might only be a tropical storm.  St  eve  82  0   19:36, July 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still no NHC mention. Not much development on the most recent GFS run, but it does appear to be a weak tropical depression or storm. ECMWF not developing anything. I would LOVE to see Earl form from this, but the Atlantic has been so dead this month, I'm not sure if I expect it to happen. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 20:23, July 22, 2016 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Invested and 10/20. Has a shot to be Earl! ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 12:56, July 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm sort of lenient on this one. I'm not saying that it won't become Earl, but it seems that conditions aren't too favorable. Update: Checked the GFS run. It's showing a small tropical storm in the same potential area as Danielle. The storm I just described is the same storm, so it's probably gonna be a re-Helene 2012. T  G  13:11, July 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Nice, finally an AOI in the Atlantic. I hope this can become something. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 14:23, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's up to 30/40 now, it might become Earl down the road as it heads towards the antilles, but that's a long ways ahead. Steve, it's entirely normal for a July to be inactive, even for hyperactive years, because it's not even near the peak of the season. 2004 had no storms until the start of August and we all know how well that year turned out to be, 2012 had a similar start to this year with 4 storms before July, but Ernesto didn't come until August and yet 2012 still turned out to tie for the 3rd most active season ever, this year could too, it just needs some time for storms to get going. Ryan1000 19:00, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still at 30/40. If this becomes Earl, it looks to be a weak and short lived storm, as conditions will become quite unfavorable by next week. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 02:01, July 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still 30/40. Honestly, I'd almost rather have a tropical depression than a storm, since it looks like if it does develop it would be a name-waster. However, the crazy HWRF model develops 96L into a category 1 hurricane...but that does not make sense given the only marginally favorable conditions. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 12:39, July 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Because 96L is behind 97L, I feel the latter would eat away the unfavorable conditions for the former. Nevertheless, I would be delighted to see another tropical storm from either invest, as the Atlantic has endured a rather quiet 30-day period. I also believe the Atlantic is just starting, especially since Colin and Danielle formed rather early in the Gulf of Mexico. Also, for 96L, both chances of formation remain the same. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:41, July 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Finally, we have something in this basin! But since unfavorable conditions are coming for this system, we might only see an epic failure TS storm. I would like the HWRF model to come true, but that looks unlikely. And Ryan, I already know that, I'm just a bit impatient for new storms :P   St  eve  82  0   21:03, July 28, 2016 (UTC)

I'm surprised the chances of development remain 30/40 and there are no signs of organization noted. It looks to be organizing to me, with a large area of deep convection appearing along with spiral cloud lines appearing to lead into a closed circulation on the eastern side of the system. Looks like a TD (albeit sheared) to me, but I also don't work at NHC, so maybe they know something as to why this isn't organizing despite appearances? (Edit: The NHC forecaster who updated the TWO is a very conservative one) ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 01:43, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * 96L is starting to look like a TD. Instead of 30/40 I'd put development chances at 70/70. Not sure if it will be Earl, though. ~BOB Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:22, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * This system is impressing me. NHC have the experts but right now 96L looks better than Colin and Bonnie.  I am not sure how it can be at 30%  with the amount of organization it has. It looks like a td right now. I believe this will become Earl and be  a 50mph or 60mph storm if current rate of organization continues. This reminds me of  Hanna of 2014. Allanjeffs 03:53, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Apparently it's having trouble with developing its low-level circulation, and that's probably why its development chances aren't that high yet. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:03, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Indeed, 96L looks worse then last night with clear multiple vortices and the convection farther from the center. Chances of development remain 40/50. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:44, July 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Perhaps the invest is falling victim to the unfavorable Central Atlantic conditions the NHC was acknowledging. It only has a couple more days left to become tropical. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, July 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's down to 20/20 now, and it looks less organized with no circulation. I highly doubt 96L will develop anymore. However, 97L, the other invest, has a good chance of being Earl next week. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 20:54, July 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now it's down to 10/10. It's not going to develop anymore, so Earl is likely going to come from 97L. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   01:10, July 31, 2016 (UTC)

05L.EARL
See the archive on Earl.

AOI: Northeastern Gulf of Mexico
0/20, now on the TWO. This has a slight chance of being Fiona in the northeastern Gulf (and if it is, it would probably be a TD or minimal TS), but I'm just currently not thinking this will develop because GFS and ECMWF barely show any development. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 13:52, August 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd prefer Fiona to be a powerful hurricane, so I hope this doesn't make it past TD. Anyway northwestern Florida will get some rain from this system, regardless whether it develops. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:43, August 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * 10/20. Might be made Invest 98L soon now that it is in the 48-hour outlook... ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 17:50, August 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * The thing is, the winds aren't the issue with this, it's the rain. The ECWMF is showing over THREE FEET of rain in parts of Florida. Even if this system doesn't get named it could still be quite damaging. We'll see what happens... ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:59, August 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * 20/30 now ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 23:55, August 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * This has a shot of Fiona, and I predict it might be at least a TD briefly. Land interaction could limit significant development, but I see no reason why it shouldn't have some Fiona potential. @Raindrop, whoa, that's a lot of rain! <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:28, August 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * The 5-day odds are down to 20%, but the two day odds are still 20%. Anyway, as noted above, models are showing LOTS of rain with this still. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:49, August 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * I don't see this AOI doing much, but it could still have a chance at becoming a TD before landfall. Hopefully everyone there safely rides out the flooding that could come with all the rain. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:59, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * ...and poof. It moved inland and it's down to 0/0. Fiona is more likely coming from the 10/20 system. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:21, August 8, 2016 (UTC)

This same system is back on the TWO after moving over water again. However, it is currently at 0/0 and expected to move inland again. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 20:41, August 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, this system would have stood a shot at retirement had it been named! 1000 year floods are no joke! That's astounding that this system dropped up to 2.5 feet of rain in Louisiana! This unnamed system will be remembered. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 18:40, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: North of Puerto Rico
Another AOI has popped up on the TWO. 0/20, could become a weak Fiona or Gaston if the above AOI forms first. T G  13:07, August 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still 0/20, but this could well be another Atlantic storm. The NHC isn't noting anything about unfavorable conditions, so it could have potential to become even a hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:51, August 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's at 10/20 currently. This could be Fiona, unless the above AOI unexpectedly develops (then it would be Gaston). I don't really think it will be a hurricane, because if it did have a good shot at that, the 5-day percentage would be higher. Hopefully it does become a hurricane, though. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:02, August 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * @Steve, yeah, you're right that it likely wouldn't be a hurricane, and in fact the NHC is noting development is "becoming less likely" although the odds remain at 10/20. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 23:09, August 7, 2016 (UTC)

This system is now at 0/0, and it will likely be gone in the next TWO. T G  12:31, August 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * And it's gone. Looks like development didn't occur, and Fiona will have to wait. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   19:27, August 9, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Over Western Africa
A strong tropical wave is currently located over western Africa and could develop into a short-lived weak tropical cyclone in a few days in the far Eastern Atlantic. While the NHC has not mentioned it, most models and about 60% of the ensembles develop it. I'd honestly rather it be TD 6 than Fiona, as I want Fiona to be intense. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 02:07, August 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Finally added to the TWO, 10/20. I think the 5-day odds are a little higher than 20% because of the many models developing it. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 23:36, August 14, 2016 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invested. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 01:03, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * I hope we see a TD and nothing more from this. The name "Fiona" doesn't deserve to be given to a name-waster. I'd personally give this a 30-40% chance of development, since conditions are going to get less conducive by the end of the week. If 98L wants to be something, it will need to develop quickly. But, I still hope that it isn't a name stealer. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:12, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's going to be heading northwest over the open Atlantic long before it reaches any land areas. If it forms, it won't be much different from, say Debby '06. Ryan1000 03:34, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * 98L can develop quickly right now as conditions are somewhat favourable, but let's hope it doesn't get past TD so it won't steal a name. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:04, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40/50 now. This has some Fiona potential. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 17:50, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully this wave doesn't pull a re-96L and not develop again, as I'd like to see at least a TD as it's approaching the peak of the season (it's still around a month away though). If it does get named, hopefully it can manage to strengthen enough to not be a fail storm, but it doesn't have all that much time to do so. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 19:55, August 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * 50/70 now. Code Red. Looks likely Fiona is coming! There is still a lot of uncertainty with the intensity of this system. ECMWF/HWRF/CMC show a weak tropical storm while the GFS and GFDL show a hurricane. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 00:02, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Looks like conditions are turning out more favorable then previously forecast. With more favorable conditions, hopefully we can see a hurricane Fiona! ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 01:41, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * I hope for Fiona to be a hurricane. I don't want to see a name wasted. With more favorable conditions forecasted, a hurricane is a possibility. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   03:39, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Fiona-to-be could become a hurricane but it will remain well out at sea if it does. However, according to Dr. Master's latest blog post, there is another tropical wave that is anticipated by many of the models to come off of Africa behind Fiona-to-be and it could go on a more southernly path towards the Caribbean by the middle of next week or so. This is around the time of year that the season begins to ramp up big time, and this storm is just the start of what could be a freight train of storms for the next month and a half. On a side note, remember that AOI that was at near 0% in the northern GOM a while back? As it moved slowly westward it was responsible for a terrible 1 in 1000 year flood in parts of Louisiana, and it may have caused as much as 1.5 billion in damage. Ryan1000 05:05, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

Up to 60/70 now. This wave looks destined to become Fiona, and it looks almost certain that Fiona will be a fish storm. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 05:14, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan that AOI would have been classified as a tropical storm if it was over water,even Dr. Masters mention it, so you may as well classified at as a ts. Anyways depending on the model you are following you might get different results. Euro has barely ts Fiona meanwhile Gfs has minimal hurricane Fiona. I hope Euro wins because in its portray it also shows Gaston and Hermine. Allanjeffs 05:39, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * The HWRF, GFDL, GFS and CMC all make 98L Hurricane Fiona in about 4-6 days, but the ECMWF doesn't even show this becoming a TS. Hopefully ECMWF fails this time. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, August 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah Allan, that storm probably would've been named if it had time over open water, but it wasn't because it was too close to land. It was mentioned in his blog post that it wasn't officially a named tropical storm, but it had the impacts of one that moved very slowly, like Lee or Allison, and it was called a "storm that was tropical". I'm hoping for a mixed solution like the GFS that makes this a hurricane, but I also hope we get some more storms to track following Fiona-to-be like the Euro expects, so long as none of them turn out to be too bad down the road. Ryan1000 11:55, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * 70/80. This is spinning up fast, and if this continues we could even have major hurricane Fiona. I notice the NHC now predicts a more northerly track in the 5-day GTWO. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:31, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * 80/90. Fiona the Fish is coming, and it looks like she may be followed with Gaston near Cape Verde in less than a week. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 17:34, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, this invest is looking better with every update of satellite imagery! If the structure of 98L stays this way through 5 PM EST, then I think we could have a TD by then even! Looks like future Fiona won't be a fail storm after all! ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 18:37, August 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * 90/90 now. I think this will be upgraded to TD Six at 11 PM EDT, as the NHC TWO noted that if the organization trend continued advisories would be initiated on a tropical depression. Also, the circulation appeared to be closed on a recent ASCAT pass. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 23:47, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Woohoo! We have it! 35 mph, 1008 mbar! Likely going to be Fiona, 60 mph peak is forecast. Also looks like it will be a fish storm. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 02:47, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yay! The NHC actually upgraded it! It's almost certain we will have Fiona within the next day. It really depends on how well this storm is able to hold off the SAL that might make the difference between a weakling and a hurricane. Hopefully "Fiona" can be like Danny was and surprise us with an unexpected strengthening stunt as it won't hit land! Anyway, TD Six looks pretty good for the time being. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 03:04, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * We finally got a new TD! It is almost certain it will be at least a weak Fiona, but I am hoping for hurricane status. It will depend on how amazingly it can withstand the SAL. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   04:24, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Looks like this will be the first storm of the Atlantic season to not affect land. Hopefully it becomes stronger than forecast because of that, I'm hoping for at least a cat 1. Ryan1000 11:19, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Finally a new TD! It seems like Six is undergoing RI, since the circulation seems better defined and Dvorak values are rising at a very abnormal rate. NunoLava1998 (talk) 11:18, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * TD 6 is NOT going under RI, it is actually looking worse than earlier this morning. The SAL is taking its toll on it. I'm skeptical of this becoming anything more than a weak to moderate tropical storm at this time. I do think it should become Fiona, but it probably won't be a hurricane, sadly. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 15:38, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, unfortunately the convection weakened significantly, otherwise we would have had TS Fiona with the latest advisory. However it looks like this TD has an eye lol. (It's definitely a false eye though) ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 15:40, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * It still has time to become Fiona, but if it doesn't improve it's structure soon, it probably won't be more than a weakling that just takes a name off the list. Ryan1000 16:26, August 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * TD 6 is looking better now than it did earlier this morning, and the T-numbers support a 50-60 mph cyclone. Highly doubt it is that strong, but I do think it's likely that TD 6 will be upgraded to TS Fiona at 5PM EDT. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 19:01, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd be VERY surprised if this is not TS Fiona next advisory, as the NHC was basically saying observations almost supported a TS last advisory when it looked worse. It's definitely still fighting that SAL though, athough it looks better now. Edit: The tropical floater images even say this is TS Fiona now. Still, might as well wait until the NHC upgrades it. ~ Raindrop  (Rain rules!) 20:00, August 17, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fiona
And we have Fiona! (Fiona actually was officially named before this advisory). Models keep trending southwestward with Fiona, and if this continues then Fiona might actually threaten land. Another change with the forecast is that it now shows Fiona holding steady in intensity at the end of the forecast instead of weakening. Fiona might turn out less boring then expected... ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:02, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unless she dissipates. Dry air is making a toll on the system. It has almost no convection right now and if she cant mix the dry air it will be the end for her. Allanjeffs 22:58, August 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Wow, yeah, Fiona looked basically dead for a while there. However it looks like some new convection is firing up just now. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:45, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona might as well be a Failicia as per ECMWF and ECMWF is quite right most of the time so I am watching the other wave.--182.58.99.14 09:38, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * NHC expects Fiona to reach a peak intensity of 70 mph...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:56, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, IbAHAn, the NHC only forecasts 60 mph. (Still not a complete fail nonetheless) Anyway, the good news is that Fiona has strengthened to 45 mph. The bad news is that Fiona is looking worse since that advisory. And the NHC seems to be siding more with the ECWMF with the latest advisory, saying that Fiona could even dissipate before 5 days from now. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:38, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Right now Fiona looks like it's gone back down to a depression. Dvorak estimates are back down to 2.0 as convection decreases in intensity and coverage, and a significant dry slot seems to be wrapping into the southeastern portion of the circulation. Looks like ECMWF will win this time and Failicia will have a new friend. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:11, August 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Update: somehow CMC shows Fiona making a hurricane-strength landfall in North Carolina in under 10 days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:17, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona seems to be maintaining strength right now as a 45 mph TS, and it's not likely going to intensify much because of the slightly unfavorable environment it is in. If Fiona can somehow survive the shear ahead of it, it will enter an area with lower shear and much warmer SSTs, and this is where earlier GFS runs showed Fiona gaining hurricane strength. At this time, I highly doubt Fiona will become a hurricane, though, as it will most likely get ripped apart by the shear ahead of it. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 15:45, August 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I don't see Fiona becoming a hurricane unless it restrengthens or regenerates sometime in the very long run (like what CMC shows). Fiona might be a Failicia, unless CMC comes true, which I don't think will happen. The current intensity is 45 mph/1006 mbar and I don't think it'll strengthen much more due to the dry air. <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   21:59, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * By this point, i'd be surprised if this thing goes to even 55 mph. If Fiona survives that wind shear and dry air, then it might become a hurricane, but I give that a 3% chance of happening...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 22:32, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona is actually looking quite good right now with a lot of convection, so for now Fiona seems to be fighting off the dry air. I bet if Fiona stays like this through the next advisory time it will be upgraded to 50 mph. But Fiona is definitely changeable and has gained/lost its convection rapidly, showing it could still easily fall victim to dry air. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:13, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * It seems to be holding TS status for a little while longer. But, it's down to 40 mph. Even though it might seem like it, it is not the biggest epic fail since it fought the dry air and is still holding on now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:03, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona remains a TS for the 11:00 advisory, and the new forecast keeps Fiona as a TS for 12 more hours. The more Fiona is able to withstand the dry air, the more likely it is that Fiona will turn northward enough to survive longer. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:56, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Fiona is now only forecast to remain a TS until tomorrow. It should dissipate early next week. I'm impressed how it fought off the dry air to stay as a TS for a while longer. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  19:21, August 20, 2016 (UTC)

No way! The 11PM EDT advisory says that some 45 knot vectors were found that support raising Fiona's intensity to 50 mph! Fiona doesn't look very good, so if it is 50 mph, it probably was 60 mph at one point. This is shocking. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 02:55, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow, Fiona isn't done yet! I never would have expected Fiona to have 50 mph winds! Fiona might have been a little stronger before this as well, but this surprise stunt is definitely good for Fiona's case. The NHC is saying that "if Fiona can survive the next 36 hours, it might persist as a weak tropical cyclone through the end of the forecast period". Quite impressive in 30 knots of shear and low humidity! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 03:03, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * And now Fiona is crashing as the large blob of convection almost completely dissipates and is sheared well to the east of the now exposed center. If new convective bursts can develop, however, Fiona may survive the next 5 days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:16, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * It shocked me when Fiona restrengthened to 50 mph. It refuses to die. I predict it should die soon and I would be even more shocked if it is still alive in 5 days' time. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:14, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * I just realized that Fiona's convection blowing away looks like the smoke from a steam train. All aboard the tropical storm express! Lol. The fact that there even is convection shows that Fiona is still making at least SOME attempt to fight off the shear. I hope Fiona can last through 5 days. Fiona's been a fun storm to track considering it's a weak one - although post anaylsis will likely find it stronger. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 21:22, August 21, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fiona
And now it's weakening. Bye Fiona! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:52, August 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm impressed Fiona managed to hold on for as long as it did. It should be dead later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 11:39, August 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * Fiona remains alive with the latest advisory, but is "very disorganized" according to the NHC. Still, if Fiona can survive 12-24 more hours of being sheared it will get a short life extension due to a brief period of less shear. Maybe if Fiona really tries it can even regain minimal tropical storm status. We'll see. Fiona should be dead somewhat soon still, but it's sure been an interesting storm. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:44, August 23, 2016 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone Fiona
Dissipated as a significant tropical cyclone over water. - NHC says "Fiona is finished". 182.58.40.178 14:42, August 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yep, she's dead. I don't consider it a complete fail since it lasted quite a while over unfavorable conditions, but it didn't affect land regardless. Now time to follow Gaston. Ryan1000 16:25, August 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * Fiona took a while to die. Well, it's finally dead. It really tried hard. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:35, August 24, 2016 (UTC)