Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

August
Is here, but aside from Gil crossing over, nothing's new. Ryan1000 06:30, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

The NHC is now issuing experimental GTWO's which predict a tropical cyclone's formation probability in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:24, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: West of Hurricane Gil
This AOI popped up on the TWO. It has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

I believe its 91E now.Allanjeffs 02:20, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * This could become Pewa after moving into the Central Pacific. If it develops before reaching the CPac (which I don't think will happen), it could become Henriette (or Ivo if the above invest develops).  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:16, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Allan, Wunderground does not have this invest put up yet on its tracking map. However, it has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Also, it looks like this AOI could become a re-Lala (1984), Iniki (1992), Li (1994), and/or Lana (2009) - all four of those storms begun as EPAC tropical depressions, but were named in the CPAC AOR. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The only invest 91 is ex-Dorian off of Florida. This one isn't an invest yet, but it could be one very soon. Ryan1000 14:03, August 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now it's CPac bound, and at 20%. Ryan1000 13:06, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * 0% outttttttttAllanjeffs 00:11, August 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * This AOI is off the TWO! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:05, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
20% risk, but not on GTWO. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:27, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * This is a big one some models have been showing. I doubt it'll affect land, but this could become our first major according to HWRF. Ryan1000 06:04, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * 20% and like I say probably our first major of the season.Allanjeffs 19:17, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Aside from this and the AOI near the Lessers, there's also a few waves off of Africa that could be worth watching in the long run, if they survive the dry air environment. Ryan1000 20:34, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin report is out.Up to 50knts and is the second lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the epacAllanjeffs 03:55, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yep, tied with Annette of 1976 and behind Adolph of 1983. Back to this, I'm surprised it's not invested yet. 40% chance for the next two days and 70% for five days. Should be Ivo real soon. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this will become Ivo, and maybe even be our first major.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:02, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Investe'd 50%/70%. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:13, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here comes Ivo, and possibly our season's first major. According to GFS, this one could be a long-term Hawaii threat. Ryan1000 04:33, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * How do you guys know this was invested? I'm not seeing anything on Wunderground. Anyway, chances are down slightly to 40%/70%. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:29, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I still think this will become Ivo, and possibly be a long-term threat to Hawaii.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:07, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * This invest is down to a 30% (60%) chance of tropical cyclone formation, but conditions should get better for it. Man, the EPAC is really rocking in terms of named storms and hurricanes this year. Major hurricanes, no. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:54, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%/40%. I'm starting to doubt development of this system. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:01, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * This invest is slowly grinding away...it is now at a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:46, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Well, guess what? This invest is up to a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation! I think we will see Ivo later today. This invest has really surprised us. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:16, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

(Edit conflict) Holy cow! This invest exploded overnight! Now it has an 80% chance in the next five days. Based on visible imagery, we could see a tropical depression later today. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:19, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like this invest should be Ivo not too long from now. ST✪12 20:18, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 50%.This invest is bipolar,It better develop or not.Allanjeffs 00:34, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

It has a 60% chance in the next five days. It still has a couple of days left before wind shear takes over. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:10, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

It only has until Thursday to develop,Imagine we were all thinking this was going to be the first major of the season and it still hasn`t develop.The irony.Allanjeffs 04:51, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Now it only has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Time is running out fast for this invest! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:20, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Down to a 30% chance. So much for this invest becoming our first major! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:38, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Bye, bye, 92E! It's at a 20% chance now, and as it enters the CPAC, it will not encounter any better conditions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:27, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I think this is done since this has entered unfavorable conditions. Remember when we were all expecting this to become a major? It didn't even become named. What a fail.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:52, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * It tried...poor invest. Ryan1000 17:21, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * The invest still has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now its chance has been downgraded to 10%. It was a promising storm, but it did not become anything significant at all. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Don't expect anything from this invest anymore. Its chance is down to near 0% and conditions are nothing but unfavorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:09, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Might do something like 93E which was only forecast to become a ts and this one that was forecast to become a major.Figures.Allanjeffs 15:21, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Behind Henriette
Wow, the EPac is really going on a hot streak. The one near Mexico could become a major hurricane (Ivo), and this will probrably become Juliette. Near 0% for now, and 20% for the next five days, but conditions are expected to improve, according to NHC. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this will become Juliette in a few days. The East Pacific has become really active lately!  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:05, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * This AOI is now at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next two days, and a 30% chance in the next five days. Gradual development should lead to a minor hurricane, in my opinion. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:43, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think a strong TS or minor hurricane is possible from future Juliette (or the CPac name Pewa, if it doesn't become a TS until then). Either way, this should follow Henriette and pass out to sea, missing Hawaii. Ryan1000 21:07, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested. No, this is a bit of a long-term Hawaii threat. Models have been showing it hitten there for days. 93E is more of a Hawaii threat though, since that's likely to be stronger. but 93E is also a threat to Jonhston Atoll in like a week since it's suppose to re-intensify when it arrives over there. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:17, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have doubts this will head directly towards Hawaii like Flossie did, but it's way too far out to tell. The Euro keeps it south of the Islands, the GFS also expects this to pass south of the islands, but it sees 92E hitting the Big Island 264 hours from now (but that's way too far out to be certain) and HWRF keeps this south of Hawaii as well. 92E could turn due west and threaten them in the long run, but this should stay south of them. It could become a hurricane though. Ryan1000 04:33, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10%/20%. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:30, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't know if this will become much. It might become Juliette if it develops before reaching the CPac (assuming the above invest develops into Ivo), or it might become Pewa if it develops after crossing into the CPac. I don't think this will threaten Hawaii that much.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:11, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Shower activity is very limited in this system. It is possible it could develop, though. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:55, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now it has only a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. I doubt this will become anything significant. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:46, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Back up to 20%. I would prefer this to become Pewa since Hawaii doesn't get a lot of named storms. I would want Juliette to wait in exchange for Pewa. The invest behind it looks to become Ivo too. ST✪12 20:20, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

This invest has potential, but tropical cyclone status is not guaranteed. It is also currently crossing into the CPAC. Should it become a tropical storm, it will be first CPAC AOR tropical storm since 2010's Tropical Storm Omeka. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:17, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Well, here we go! This invest has entered the CPAC. It has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:11, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Now the chance of tropical cyclone formation has been downgraded to 10%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:38, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

And now its down to near 0%. Conditions are not favorable for any development, so hats off to this invest! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:25, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Meh. Pewa will probably come later in the season,  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:55, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's still here, but its chance still remains at near 0%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, just when it was going to die, this AOI redeemed itself! Now its chance of tropical cyclone formation has been upped to a 20% chance again in the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * 80% Here comes the first tropical depression in the central pacific in a long time.I believe the last was Neki.Allanjeffs 14:52, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like Pewa is coming! FINALLY!!! :D  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:59, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) Wow! I never expected this! And Allan, the most recent CPAC-forming tropical depression was Omeka 2010. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:01, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Thanks Andrew didn`t remember that little guy.Maybe 92E can have the same fate as this one.Allanjeffs 15:19, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Woah, didn't check in lately on CPac, and this guy is up to 80%. Wow. Here comes TS Pewa, first storm to be named in CPac in 3 years. Ryan1000 16:58, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Mexico
This AOI popped up on the TWO. It is at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. However, conditions for this system are very unfavorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:49, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

And it has gone off the TWO. Oh well, conditions were not that favorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:19, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Hawaii
This AOI currently has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. If anyone looks at the CPHC GTWO, you will find the CPAC is cooking right now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

As of 0000 UTC, this AOI now has a 20% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours. However, any further development of this system should happen very slowly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 60% expect this to become another tropical storm after Pewa.Allanjeffs 21:46, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yikes, CPac is going nuts. If the system behind this becomes Pewa, this would be named Unala. I don't expect this to become as strong though, and both this and the above system should stay well away from Hawaii anyways. Ryan1000 22:53, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Oh my goodness! The CPAC is insane! After going over two and a half years without a named storm, we could easily get two at once. Looks like we are in for a wild week here. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:45, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie Comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.
 * Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme".

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE Tropical Cyclone  04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: Isaac829 E-Mail  19:29, August 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - No.
 * Barbara - 0% - No.
 * Cosme - 0% - No.
 * Dalila - 0% - No.
 * Erick - -∞% - No.
 * Flossie - 10% - Wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - No.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.

ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. More to come...
 * Alvin? #No.
 * Barbara? #No.
 * Cosme #No.
 * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO.
 * Erick? #No.

Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions:

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville!
 * 2) Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards.
 * 3) Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name.
 * 4) Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances.
 * 5) Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * 6) Flossie - 2% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end.
 * 7) Gil - 0% - It did nothing special.
 * 8) Henriette - 0% - Henriette may have broken our Category 1 streak, but it is staying.

Here's my predictions!

Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Hell no.
 * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it.
 * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough.
 * Dalila - 0% - Nope.
 * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - Fishie.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.

STO12's Predictions:
 * ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here.
 * BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement.
 * COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme.
 * DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement.
 * ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement.
 * FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy.
 * GIL: 0% Just another addition to our streak of cat 1's, far from land too.
 * HENRIETTE: 0% Was certainly impressive to see it do what it did. But no retirement is to be arranged. Hopefully Henriette will impress us just as much in 2019.

ST✪12 23:57, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan Grand Speaks: Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again?
 * Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names...
 * Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah.
 * Dalila - 1% - See Cosme.
 * Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe.
 * Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish.
 * Henriette - ?? - Not sure, but I can't rule out Hawaii completely.

I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin: 0% fish
 * Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough
 * Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves
 * Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all.
 * Erick 0% nop another fish
 * Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur
 * Gil??? So far looks like a fish.
 * Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Alvin has a TCR, and upped to 60 mph.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:20, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * 2nd southernmost TC on record for EPac, behind 1983's Adolph. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)