Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: Off the coast of Africa
There's probably some reason why no-one's put this up yet, but I can't stand it. There's a low off the coast, and a convective, multiple-area tropical wave. The models say "yes", NHC says "what", and I'm going with my eyes and the models. Opinions? IP 23:13, 7 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Our eyes have been on this darn 99L.Invest system. :P But yes, this system does look interesting. Let's give it a couple of days or so and see what happens. - Enzo Aquarius 23:27, 7 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah, 99L is a slippy little bugger. I'm putting INVEST development Sunday morning, though that might be a little early. IP 23:36, 7 September 2007 (UTC)
 * With Gabrielle out, again everyone forgets our little AoI friend, who is about three times more likely to become a hurricane. Although Gabby does have some really nice looking TROPICAL features... Anyway, this guy is getting more convection from another thunderstorm (MCS perhaps? Probably not) moving off the coast. It looks much worse today, but still, I think this guy has potential. It's nothing like Dean-wave, or Felix-wave, but it does have potential. IP 11:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * EVERYBODY PAY ATTENTION! LOOK AT WHAT'S OFF THE COAST! For whatever the reason, it seems that the thunderstorm off the coast has developed an associated low, and it already looks like a depression. It's kinda far north, and I'm not so sure it's associated with this one. However, this one looks pretty awesome as well. Both of them are supposed to curve north pretty soon after development. Opinions? IP 14:13, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

First system is up on the TWO, and it doesn't seem there's anything stopping it. IP 14:18, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * What's wrong with the NRL? there are now two areas potential for development and they didn't upgrade either even just a mere invest??? RoswellAtup 15:27, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * They probably won't catch up for a couple of days, because the systems are still developing, but that one due east of the Cape Verde's looks extraordinarily ominous to me... IP 15:39, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * For once ;), I'm inclined to agree will IP for the time being. While the thing in the middle of the ocean may eventually develop, that thing off Dakar is quite impressive. There is noted cyclonic turning. It's small and just because it looks tropical doesn't mean it has an LLCC, but it looks healthy. Stuff very near Africa is prone to falling apart suddenly so I urge caution there. The wave in the TWO could also very well develop, considering the kind of luck similar waves have had this season. -- SkyFury 17:43, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Weaker now, and kind of weird-looking, but almost merging with the other system, which is also looking ominous. It's not like a few hours ago, but it is definitely a threat. If they merge, it can't be good. And I know I tend to over-exaggerate, but the one time I didn't, it was an under-estimate (Felix: I predict Cat 3 max, Cat 2 min, Cat 2 more likely, though none of us predicted cat 5). Usually what I say is more enthusiastic than what I think, so take about 10-40% off of most of my predictions, and you should have a somewhat more reasonable answer. Anyway, did anyone else note that there was some turning in that thing around 7N, and that if it forms, it will break Ivan's record (not that it will)? This is almost as good looking as Dean's wave (ah... a pulse of almost-nostalgia running through me... the crowded third world streets buzzing with a sense of excitement, the luxury hotel emanating with style and comfort, the tropical beach, swaying with the wind, and somewhere, off in the distance, something wicked is stirring... Zanzibar, August 24th, 2007... What a wonderful trip that was, especially after the safari. Sorry for that, it was just that it was one of my top ten, the other nine having already happened on the same trip). IP 19:19, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * (Jesus, pass the bong would ya ;D. LOL.) So if you predict a 40 percent chance of X then I shouldn't hold my breath? -- SkyFury 19:49, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

If I predict forty percent chance of X then X is going to hell in a hand basket ; ). But really, if it's under 50% you can most likely say it's PROBABLY not going to happen. If I say zero percent chance, however, then it will become a category four hurricane. I'd say that there's a pretty large error margin, since I'm newish, but I have been right a few times (Chantal, Dean, Gabby from this this morning to now, Barry, all the E-Pacs) and wrong a few times (everything else this year besides a few W-Pac systems), and a lot of the times I have no idea what I'm saying (those times that I was wrong).

Back on topic, I'll put up percents now: 60% tropical eventually (don't take too much more than 10 away from that), 5% dissipation in a few hours, the rest dissipation slowly. IP 21:20, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Please take more than 10% off now. I saw the Atlantic wide view picture. IP 21:29, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Number's not up yet, but it's officially recognized by NHC with it's own little floater. BTW, this is the low feature that came off of Dakar yesterday, which I think got more energy from the other wave. Looks like advisory one Gabby. Opinions? IP 13:16, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Sorry, looking at the wrong storm. This is the OTHER wave, the one off of Dakar is still looking great (Look at the storm below it on 10N, that's brilliant!). IP 13:19, 9 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, this is the one west southwest of the CV islands. Cyclone1 (14:15 UTC -9/09/2007)


 * It has been a pretty poor show for the Cape Verde activity this year and last year... The Cape Verde invests are lame, and probably this one would go poof anytime... RoswellAtup 14:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Pretty poor? The only two serious waves we've had turned into monsters! It's not poor, it's just SLOW IP 15:56, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Judging by what has happened this year, I have to agree with IP. From its location, it could turn into anything or do anything. Not noticed by the NHC yet though. - Enzo Aquarius 16:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Neither is 92L, but this one does have a floater labeled "Invest", I believe it's floater 2. I say nothing today, possibly something tomorrow. IP Talk 17:25, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Um, not sure exactly what Roswell's smoking but it's not healthy whatever it is. It's not exactly been 1995 a'la the Parade of Storms but the two waves that did spin out had a combined ACE of 50.3 and killed 175 people. And that's just the numbers, not counting how many records they set. This wave is not impressing me a whole lot but it bears watching seeing what's already happened. (This invest is up on NHC floaters, by the way, though not numbered. )-- SkyFury 17:29, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

I just said that's where it was (even though you gave a link)! I'd have to go with Eric on almost all points (ok, all of them) on this one, as I said before, it's just SLOW. IP Talk 17:32, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Now numbered. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Perhaps I should add that I have yet to be impressed by this system in any way. -- SkyFury 21:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You said that already. Organization should develop in a couple hundred miles, I would think it will form significantly to the west of the area Felix and Dean did. I'm going with SHIPS and the NHC, slow development over the next few days. Might become a Gulf storm <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:40, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * And why do you all say you "have" to agree with me? Is siding with me some kind of self-induced mental torture? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:42, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Looks great! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:47, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Judging by the looks of this, it could form into something. It still has quite a ways to go, thus I personally see this one forming into something. - Enzo Aquarius 02:34, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy heat-engine! Models say it's going to become a cat 1-2 hurricane and turn towards the Eastern Seaboard! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:38, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's starting to look as good as Dean-wave and Felix-wave... I think we might have Humberto. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:42, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's caught the eye of the NHC and various news stations. We may have something here! - Enzo Aquarius 15:21, 10 September 2007 (UTC)

HWRF as a major 'cane towards the Eastern Seaboard. Definitely not what we need, especially as there is NOTHING up there in its way. Max cat 4 (135 mph), min cat 2 (110 mph). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:55, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * TCFA. Significant turning and it looks almost like a depression could form today or tomorrow. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:59, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Don't worry too much, looking at the models, I only give it a 5% chance of a Category 5 landfall on the US. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:20, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * That was scary man. Don't do that. Ever. Who said that that was going to happen anyway? (season now has 7/8 landfalls) <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:45, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * If this forms into anything, it could go anywhere. :S - Enzo Aquarius 00:36, 11 September 2007 (UTC)

It will form into something. Look at it! That's REALLY well defined! Not to mention that the next wave is really getting pumped as well. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:39, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Indeed, I say Tropical Depression status by late afternoon/early evening tomorrow. - Enzo Aquarius 00:45, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'd say Thursday or Friday is more likely. -- SkyFury 13:33, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * All intensity models I can find turn this into a major hurricane, with HWRF putting it at Cat 4 near the end of the model run. And it's heading towards the East Coast, with VERY little potential inhibiting factors. This is starting to sound a LOT scarier than Gabby did... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:54, 11 September 2007 (UTC)

Man, it's gonna be nice when we get a hurricane that doesn't explode into a category five... Cyclone1 (21:30 UTC -11/09/2007)


 * Don't say that man. Do NOT say that. Please, please, PLEASE. This thing has the potential. Don't get it angry.
 * Not to mention that it's looking better than Felix-wave prior to depressionizing, and the convection just has to move over the low (scary music medley plays, mix of horror-tension, Space Odyssey opening [Also sprach Zarathrusta], etc.). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk  22:33, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this storm appears to have become noticably better organized since this morning. I don't think we have too much to worry about in the way of bad juju, IP. This thing could easily recurve out to sea through a weakness in the ridge. Or hell, it could not develop at all. The tropics are a fickle place. By the way, Category 4 sounds a little agressive but yes it would be nice to have a non-Category 5 hurricane for a change. -- SkyFury 23:29, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You upset the storm with your talk of "no bad Juju"! You must praise the storm to save Georgia!
 * Yeah, it does sound nice, but this thing could be rearing it's ugly head as a category four next week, and it has a damn good chance of landfall seeing as the ridging doesn't seem prone to letting up anytime soon. I'll put up more percentages (look at it man! It's like, on steroids! It's like Felix wave, but with more definition!) now, 5% just goes poof, 10% it only makes it to a tropical storm, 30% it makes it up to a cat 1/2 hurricane then dies, the rest of my money on this thing making it to major status (that's 55%, and 85% hurricane). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:38, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The models are having organization issues (these are issues that occur when a storm is beginning to organize; the models usually significantly weaken their predictions). The HWRF model does not have a defined mini-grid though, so that's an excuse for not providing correct information. GFDL has had this problem this morning. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:49, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's now looking good on the Satellite, but how come th models don't make this a hurricane? The models are even making this thing dissipate in 5 days... RoswellAtup 01:12, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * This thing is a depression now, no doubt about it. Look at the goddamn thing! It's a ball of rotating convection! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:28, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * If this thing doesn't mysteriously self-destruct, advisories could be initiated as early as 11 am, the next advisory period. I can't see there being much to stop it from at least getting a name. -- SkyFury 12:59, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
NRL's got a listing for 08L.NONAME up, looks like we're finally getting our depression! --Patteroast 13:26, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Say hello to Tropical Depression Eight! Predictions state this could turn into Humberto (or Ingrid now) in short time. - Enzo Aquarius 14:42, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Okay, this one's going to be an interesting one indeed. The current predictions put it anywhere. GFDL puts it just north of Dean/Felix's track (Could be their younger brother/sister), others put it towards the north which would hit the north-eastern coast of the States (gak! Could affect me). The thing that concerns me is, if it stays on it's predicted course from the NHC, it would go between Florida and Cuba which would present an opportunity to strengthen without interruption. - Enzo Aquarius 15:03, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh hell! Two! It appears we are having a September-like outburst. While this one could become a hurricane, I don't see it getting stronger than 80 knots. Ah, September. Makes school so much more bearable. -- SkyFury 16:24, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * For a hurricane in that general area in 2007, "I don't see it getting any stronger than..." seems like just about the right way to get a category 5--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:38, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Look, I'm sorry about the cat 5 prediction, ok? Just...remain calm, and let's hope it doesn't create a need to bump up that 5% any higher. If this thing develops at the rate it is now, we could have yet another record breaker on our hands :S . 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:12, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Don't say that either! :-p. Don't piss off the hurricane by telling what it can't do, and don't encourage it either :-p.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:28, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * "Don't feed the hurricanes, the water does it alone." :P - Enzo Aquarius 18:07, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Thank you, Enzo. It's not even forecast to enter the Caribbean. -- SkyFury 18:25, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

Didn't we just tell you not to say things like that?! LOL, but this thing could become a monster; you never know. This is getting scary, with potential Death-Allison (imagine if Humberto took the same track! EEK!), and something that could rip any of the few most vulnerable areas to shreds. There is no doubt about it though, THIS is what September is all about. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:57, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Um, IP, am I going to start having to ration your alchohol consumption? NHC says shear will increase at the end of the forecast period. None of us are saying it doesn't have the potential to be a destructive hurricane, just that it's unlikely. I do believe in some form of jinx but you guys are taking it a little too seriously. -- SkyFury 21:23, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The shear is forecasted to increase at the end of the period, so it's probably going to weaken before it strengthens again. However, there's still a lot of time before it approaches any landmasses. I doubt the strong shear will last all the way to wherever it ends up going. As long as it pulls out of that phase, who knows what will happen? I find a cat 5 very unlikely, but you never know. Bob rulz 22:38, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Sorry, are we talking about 08L? LOL, I was thinking of Humberto ^_^0... I predict a cap around category 4, and a min around category 1, though I don't think it's going to be either. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 22:45, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I am going to say, if it stays on it's present course, it'll reach category 3. - Enzo Aquarius 23:00, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

The models are on crack. They kill this system. The only inhibiting factor is shear, which is not enough to rip this system apart. I hate it when, as the NHC says, "the models have slim or no chance of being correct" because they're FED INCORRECT INFORMATION. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:27, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh dear. Neither the models nor the NHC is giving an exact enough forecast about where it will go and how strong it will be. Notice most of the models are like, a day old, so they might not be accurate. The good news is, shear is expected to persist as it moves near the Greater Antillies. After that, we don't know. In fact, pretty much the entire US Atlanticish coast (Texas to Maine) might be within its future error cone. Let's hope this isn't a Floyd, like the historical models suggest, and hope this doesn't hit as a hurricane on on near Miami City, as future extendation of the track suggests. What's weird is, all the Cape Verde systems so far this year have veered south of its predicted track. If this storm veers south of say, Miami, it could hit Tampa, New Orleans, Houston...ugh is makes me scared to think about what will happen if that is the case, please forbid. Also, I don't think our comments will affect the storm's future too much, what, is it going to bring its eye over the servers and look at our posts? Let's hope the models, which are outdated, are at least partially correct in weakening this storm. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:03, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * SHHH! It's watching us now!
 * I like to encourage superstition because I think it's funny that people believe in that stuff. It's all in good fun. And although that's a very dangerous thought, it could be true... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:08, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

Is it just me, or has the NHC not put up an 8 PM or 11 PM update for TD 8? - Enzo Aquarius 02:52, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The 11pm update is there. And of course there's no 8pm update; they only issue intermediate advisories if there's watches or warnings in effect. Either way, this storm looks better than when I last looked at it; it's now a single round ball of convection and it no longer looks like the center is displaced. I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a tropical storm at 5am. Bob rulz 07:55, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's six forty nine and the fifth advisory still isn't up. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:28, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

In case anyone missed it, the GFDL now takes this into the Caribbean. *Gulp* 130.64.137.61 14:15, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I saw the 5am advisory on time. I don't know what all your guys' problems are. Either way it's still a depression, although they admit that it may have briefly been a tropical storm. And don't bet on it going into the Caribbean. Bob rulz 14:44, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Wow, this thing looks dead. If this continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see no tropical depression at 5pm. Bob rulz 15:00, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It almost made it yesterday but now it looks less organized. The window of opportunity might have closed. -- SkyFury 15:57, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I was wondering if any of you noticed how unexcited I was at the fourth advisory. I've thought it's dead since when I woke up this morning. Lack of TS now affirms it. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:09, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

This is funny. You know what, I'll bet Cyclone1's last remaining ten bucks that this makes Ingrid, but not necessarily hurricane. The reason is, the hurricane killer says it won't die by the end of the model run. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:28, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Judging by NHC, we may have Tropical Storm Ingrid by the 11 PM EDT update. However, it states it'll be a depression again in 5 days. :S - Enzo Aquarius 21:08, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It looks noticeably better organized. NHC said a hurricane hunter's going in to snoop around. Convection coverage and organization have improved. This one could yet pull it off. -- SkyFury 00:00, 14 September 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ingrid
Mostly official. Unless this for some reason pulls a Pilar, we have Ingrid. Cyclone1 (01:13 UTC -14/09/2007)
 * (BTW, my last remaining ten bucks? LMAO!) Cyclone1 (01:15 UTC -14/09/2007) 01:15, 14 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Recon also reported a pressure of 987 mbar... I think they've been inhaling too many clouds ;) <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 01:18, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Hey, at least you get your money back! 987?! Holy freak! That's hurricane pressure! That's impossible! Like Humberto! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:40, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Wow, this is definitely a great season for this wiki to restart in, and you thought this system was dead, Bob. ;) - Enzo Aquarius 01:54, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, it certainly looked dead last night. Bob rulz 05:00, 14 September 2007 (UTC)

Tis up and official. We have Tropical Storm Ingrid! - Enzo Aquarius 03:46, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Most models put Ingrid going in a northern direction, especially the BAMD (which puts it making a loop towards Europe). GFDL's track is extremely erratic. :S - Enzo Aquarius 14:54, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's been 18 years since an 'I' storm did not strengthen into a hurricane. That streak may finally end this year. Twelve straight 'I' storms. Isidore, Iris, Isidore, Ivan, Irene, Isaac, Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Irene and Isaac. Among those, there were two Category 1s, 4 Category 2s, 2 Category 3s, 2 Category 4's and two reached Category 5 strenght. That's a pretty remarkable run. -- SkyFury 23:43, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Eye for coincidences eh? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:06, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * There's still lots of time for Ingrid to develop, we shall see. :) - Enzo Aquarius 02:22, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

More updates. NHC's track has gone further north, which would make Ingrid pass Bermuda to the east and seem to pose no threat to any main land. The CMC has the most southern-path prediction, with Ingrid going between Florida and Cuba. GFDL's track now has Ingrid going for a Florida landfall. All the other models keep this thing from a landfall. - Enzo Aquarius 04:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * HWRF still INSISTS on redevelopment after almost-dissipation. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 13:33, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

Ingrid's back down to a depression, but now NHC has her back on course for the USA's eastern coast. - Enzo Aquarius 15:24, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
 * SHIPS now calling for it to restrengthen after lingering as a depression for three days. 130.64.137.61 16:13, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I think it has to go through Hell to do it though. It'll have to pull an Irene. -- SkyFury 18:40, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

Looking at the 11 PM EDT update, I think the NHC is stumped. After the fourth day, they seem to be scratching their heads. - Enzo Aquarius 03:28, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Oooh! Nice convective burst! (Why the hell am I still awake?) -- SkyFury 07:05, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Still a depression at 11am, which is a bit surprsing. Pasch did mention something in the discussion. " THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL EVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING." That's interesting... Is that what you call pulling an Irene? Cyclone1 (14:41 UTC -16/09/2007)
 * GFDL has it up to Cat 1 by the end of the model run while the HWRF makes it a moderate-strength TS. 130.64.137.61 15:42, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

Roger that, SHIPS up to 74 kts at the end of the model run. This is a really lazy storm. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:00, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Forecast to become a TS again in 4 days! Wahoo! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:57, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but it's a start. -- SkyFury 23:24, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'd say it's pretty darn likely, given the models and the conditions. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:25, 17 September 2007 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Randomly, the area in the Gulf has been designated 90L. I don't really know why; Shear is 10-25 knots and increasing, so it really doesn't have much chance of developing. Oh well, if it wants to be 90L, we'll let it be 90L. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 03:35, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * What? The Atlantic wave has far and away a better chance of developing than the patch of rainy weather in the Gulf/Caribbean. -- SkyFury 04:24, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'm really wondering why the NRL is hesitant in upgrading the wave in Atlantic into and invest? it has a very good Chance...RoswellAtup05:15, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * They aren't, it's an NRL invest now (along with 91L, see above). And I'd take another look at this one. I'm probably with you on the call, but it's looking pretty nice... <font color="#000000">IP 13:13, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Convection is increasing. Kinda looks like the precursor to Gabrielle (2001, that is) Cyclone1 (14:17 UTC -9/09/2007)


 * I give it a 10% chance. Doesn't look so great. <font color="#000000">IP 15:54, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks really really bad now. Never should have been declared. Probably an operational accident, but they still have to go with it. <font color="#000000">IP 16:05, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Indeed, looks absolutely horrid. Extremely doubtful it'll even made Tropical Depression status. - Enzo Aquarius 16:29, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The TWO says it's not under consideration (that was BEFORE 90L was called, mind you). I say this one's remains get scattered across the Caribbean by the end of today. <font color="#000000">IP 17:05, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Looking much better now, but not as healthy as SHIPS seems to think (SHIPS, by the way, is on crack; read under '92L'). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:49, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I agree on all fronts. A defined area of shitty weather has begun to hold a pow-wow near Cuba and is shedding some of the excess gak. It's starting to look more like something to watch. (And I do agree, SHIPS is completely wasted.) -- SkyFury 21:35, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * "A defined area of shitty weather..." You sound like a disgruntled TV weatherman XD. That excess crap close to Cuba is looking pretty nice. I'd say the only way SHIPS can justify this is by making it loop down towards the Yucatan and follow the coastline all the way to Florida, almost like one of those marathon runners that hi-fives all those finish line people. SHIPS can provide the cheesy victory music. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:46, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, that's my immitation of the hardass weatherman ;D. The wheels are spinning for this thing, but if the shear in the Gulf doesn't let up, those wheels'll be spinning air. -- SkyFury 23:51, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Moist, hopeless air, wandering the Gulf, waiting for the next storm to come so they can hop up on the train and head inland before their chance passes them by, yet, oblivious to all that is happening around it, only following what others feel is right, yet none of them exactly knowing what that might be. Sound familiar? There are so many potential metaphors in that sentence that it is almost as if I am comparing said air to modern society. But wait... Might that be my intention?
 * Sorry, I feel giddy[ish] today, and I just HAD to do that. You're right, though. You're ALWAYS right (not really). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:14, 10 September 2007 (UTC)

Dissipating. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:37, 10 September 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Western Gulf [Still 90L]
Could make TD before landfall; moving slowly. Also could recurve. Doubt it will though. Yes, it has reorganized, and is still 90L. Thoughts? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:48, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Hmm. What was that about dissipating? This thing looks better defined than it ever has. I don't see this getting a name but it could sneak into Texas with a number. Whatever happens, I'm afraid it means more rain for Texas which is really bad news. Meanwhile, up here in Georgia, we can hardly buy a drop. I think the Sahara's been wetter this summer than we have. -- SkyFury 23:38, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's been a day since anyone's said anything! Yes, I suppose it damn well could escape with a damn well number before it hits damn-screwed Texas (CMC gives a scary thought: Rounds through Louisiana, then before providing any needed rain, curves back into the Gulf and PERFORMS AN ALLISON). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:42, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * *whistles* You who! Back to earth, please! How about we chill out? It looks like the Atlantic is at it again. A new Tropical Disturbance Statement says a depression may form soon and I am quite impressed by the storm's recent improvement. I'd say advisories will be issued by 5 pm but I don't think it will get a name. It just doesn't have enough water. -- SkyFury 13:02, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
Ahh! I was just refreshing NRL to see if 08L would stick and now they list 09L as well! Looks like both systems decided to become depressions nigh-simultaneously. --Patteroast 13:34, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Wow, give another hello to Tropical Depression Nine! - Enzo Aquarius 14:47, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

As Enzo posted, now official. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 14:47, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Going to be an interesting week. Tracks put this (either Humberto or Ingrid, if it becomes a TS, which it is expected to) towards various locations. The most interesting one is GFDL, which puts it on a loop, literally returning to it's spot now in the Gulf of Mexico. :S - Enzo Aquarius 14:59, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I'm sure a couple people in Texas are about to hang themselves right now. -- SkyFury 16:27, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Ouch. Let's hope "Humberto" isn't Allisonv2. 130.64.137.61 17:01, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Eek. So I'm away for the day of 9/11, and this is what happens the next day. Well, I guess you guys were wrong...and SHIPS was right. Ouch. Talk about a major pain in America's...err...yeah. Since #8 formed first, this may well be an Ingrid, and thus similar to Erin...and...hopefully not, but, Allison? This is starting to sound errily like Dean and Erin, only it's Humberto and Ingrid. Well, look on the bright side, at least these storms might replenish some much-needed moisture here in S. Ontario, only that we only need about 2 in more before the end of the summer. By the way, after post-Gabrielle came and went, it was COLD. Let's hope this storm doesn't give us SNOW. Eww. I'm still having memories about last year's deadly October Fort Erie-Buffalo snowstorm. Depressions, please stay away from large cities or you'll make everyone's life miserable. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:22, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Hey, Ontario got enough rain last night, and now it's freaking cold. :P Though, nonetheless, rain is good for the plants after our summer dry-spell. - Enzo Aquarius 18:08, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Humberto
This just in from the NHC, Humberto is born! Took only one advisory too for it to form from TD to TS. - Enzo Aquarius 18:10, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Huh huh ho! Looks like somebody stole TD Eight's thunder. -- SkyFury 18:21, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh, geez. TD-9 is Humberto and TD-8 is likely to become Ingrid. So the 9th TS is going to form from the 8th TD. Tropics... Cyclone1 (18:40 UTC -12/09/2007)


 * Very, VERY fine chap this fellow is. Saw him this morning and said to myself, "That MUST be a depression". <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:53, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

New pictures suggest significant intensification... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:53, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * 45 kts now, that's up quite a bit. Looks extraordinary, and is that the beginning of an eye feature? If this had 20 more hours, I'd put it as having a good (>40%) chance of being a hurricane. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:55, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Forecast advisory put it at 55 kts before landfall, double previous comment. Over. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:56, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Damn! Mr. Humberto appears to be binging. I honestly believe if it had enough water to do it, it would rapidly intensify to God knows how strong. Texas is going to hate it, but I think they'd rather swallow this pill now rather than leave Humberto over that water to explode. -- SkyFury 21:31, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Check out Houston radar! -- SkyFury 21:54, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Sweet radar! I uploaded an image of it to Wikimedia Commons (Then to Humberto's article on Wikipedia of course ;)). Thanks! - Enzo Aquarius 23:15, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

This is an evil f--king storm! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 22:43, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * That's gotta be at LEAST 55 kts, probably up to 60 some! This could be a hurricane before landfall (though probably not, it's likely that it could happen)! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 22:47, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Let's hope it doesn't recurve back into the Gulf and circle around before making landfall. Fortunately it's unlikely. Unfortunately ANYTHING could happen (the laws of 21st century tropical cyclones, especially in the Atlantic: if you say it's not going to happen, or the record will not be broken, the records will stand as broken as the predictions. All three of the past years are damn good examples of that.). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 22:52, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, we'll find out soon hopefully. Landfall should be near. - Enzo Aquarius 23:15, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

2A is exactly the same as 2... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:19, 13 September 2007 (UTC)
 * That seems really low, but maybe they don't want up it without more data or a detailed analysis. I expect 55kt at 11pm and possibly even hurricane strength before landfall at the 2am or 5am advisory. 130.64.137.61 00:47, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Now, I wouldn't say that's impossible, and I won't go rabid on you (Errrrric!), but I don't think it's likely to become a hurricane. You're other predictions seems spot on though. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:07, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * *slowly sets down beer* Actually, if you read my earlier post, you'll see I said that I firmly believe that the Texas coast is the only thing keeping Humberto from bombing. -- SkyFury 01:59, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

Hurricane Humberto
NHC special advisoried Humberto. It's a hurricane now. Jake52 My island 05:55, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy crap! This thing strengthened from a tropical depression to a hurricane in 14 hours! Bob rulz 06:15, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Landfall as of 2:10am CDT with 85mph winds. A tornado watch is in place along much of the coast, as well. Bob rulz 07:49, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Saturated ground + Slow moving hurricane. Can you smell what the Gulf is cooking? --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 07:55, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * This thing is going to curve back in as well. What if it makes second landfall on Texas (which is doomed anyway)? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:25, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * *Huge gasp*! Hurricane???!!! The NHC even said there was a ~0% chance of hurricane!!! So that's why I thought it looked like a hurricane when I checked the Galveston Radar last night! This is a BAD combination! Rapidly intensifying hurricane at peak strength over land, weakening rapidly over land, moving slowly, hitting extremely close to land close to sea level (Galveston) and passing very close to the largest city in the Gulf (Houston) with a possible recurving and second landfall at who-knows-where, dumping huge amounts of rain where the ground is already extremely soaked, potentiallly making landfall as a hurricane again potentially near the same area *faint*! If this isn't a disaster, if this isn't similar to Alison, if this isn't close to a worst-case scenario, what is?! I hope people were prepared for this huge storm. If not...*audience weeps*. I hope Houston recovers quickly, the last thing we need now, with New Orleans still recovering, is another disaster in a large city. Oh dear, let's hope Houston escaped the worst of this storm *sad music*. Let's hope Ingrid doesn't make the situation any worse. Above all, let's hope global warming isn't to blame *audience toll exceeds 700*. Seriously though, let's hope that ridge will spread over the soaked areas and drown this storm once it tries to recurve. Besides, we don't need much more rain in Ontario, or snow for that matter, or I'll miss all the iridium flares *groans*. Let's hope people learned from Erin and survive this storm unscathed. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 12:40, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Wow, I woke up thinking that Eight would turn into Ingrid, but to my surprise, Humberto turned into a Hurricane, wow! NHC is also predicting a slight loop. Could bring lots of rain to the southern States (doubtful it'll reach Ontario if it keeps this predicted course). - Enzo Aquarius 14:35, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

WHOA, calm down there, Astro. This is not a worst-case scenario. Houston hardly even saw rain from this storm, and we have no proof that it'll recurve into the Gulf of Mexico. Even if it does, it'll have a hard time strengthening back into a hurricane if it curves back onto land, since by that time it likely will have weakened to a tropical depression. Either way, heavy rain is expected, and if it recurves that would probably be very damaging. The slow path it's expected to take is worrisome, but there's no reason to call this disastrous yet. Bob rulz 14:52, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

It's back down to a tropical storm, but take a look at this wording in the latest discussion:

BASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS MORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS. TO PUT THIS DEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL RECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR LANDFALL. IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED.

WOW. Bob rulz 14:58, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It appears the Hurricane Center is as baffled as we are. I checked the update at the in-class break in Trig class and my eyes about popped out of my head. That excerpt completely sums my emotions right now as I seem to be entirely unable to express them. -- SkyFury 15:32, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * That's what I though as well. Talk about a weird season indeed. ;) - Enzo Aquarius 15:36, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Words cannot describe how suprised I am. After a bit of a hiatus (to draw/photo manupulate, of all things) from tracking hurricanes after Dean/ Felix, I find that this season equals in weirdness as 2005. It would most definitely be nice to know how these storm manage it. For now, we shouldn't be running around like maniacs screaming that this is a sign that the season will be catastrophic and deadly. Although that would be amusing to see. ;) Lilac DownDeep 16:46, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * As usual, I didn't expect this, but I, once again, can roughly explain a theory as to what happened. During the summertime, the oceans are warm. Near the coasts in shallow water, the water heats up more quickly than where it's deep. Texas already saw LOTS of rain. Right before Humberto made landfall, it brought rain and storm surges onto already shallow, soaked land. Therefore, part of this land became covered with water, WARM water, thus giving the storm more water to strengthen on before its actual landfall. The storm only weakened when it hit dry land when it was further inland. That's why its well-defined eye didn't dissapear when it hit land the was Dean's did. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:26, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

I said to myself before Humberto was even named, back when it was a depression, "I wouldn't be surprised if this exploded into a hurricane right before landfall." Well, I was surprised, to say the least. I also said I wouldn't be surprised if Rita, Wilma, and Felix became category five's. I'm gonna stop saying that. That discussion posted above is brilliant. I love the way they worded that. Cyclone1 (18:32 UTC -13/09/2007)


 * Eh, just to see if I really am cursed, I wouldn;t be surprised to see this loop around and re enter the gulf near New Orleans. I'm not just saying that, i really kinda expect it to. Maybe next week a tropical depression will become a hurricane after landfall. This is by far the weirdest season I've ever seen. Cyclone1 (18:35 UTC -13/09/2007)


 * Oh, and one last thing. Remember a while back, when 90L was first declared, how SHIPS was the ONLY model that brought it to hurricane strength ever? We all laughed at it. Now, I would bet my house on the SHIPS models. Cyclone1 (18:40 UTC -13/09/2007)


 * The thing is, according to the models, a loop back into the Gulf is quite probable (would be interesting too ;)). - Enzo Aquarius 19:06, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * This is psychadelic enough to drop acid to ; ). Seriously though (eighth time so far I've said that, was it?), that was cool. After the first intensification, I thought we might have a hurricane. I didn't expect it, but when something gains an eye-like feature and ups winds 10 mph in a single advisory, you suspect something. And that's probably the best note in any NHC product since 2005. I'm saving that one into my hurricane folder. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:14, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

This storm might be a miracle! There might be a reason beyond our possible understanding for intensification! And although I don't believe in any god or any power beyond that of the stars, I swear by them, this storm could be the savior of Alabama. One of our Georgian friends (You-Know-Who... no wait, sorry, I mean Eric) could also get some rain from this (and you complaining about Texas getting all the fun!). And best of all, it's not one of those sappy, summer-movie BS type miracles either (Angels in the Outfield was the single crappiest movie I've ever seen, on the scale of melodramatics), it's a SCIENTIFIC miracle (like that means anything). See Eric, when you ask for things, really WANT them, you GET them (not really, but sometimes : )). This could well turn out to be the most interesting storm in YEARS. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:24, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * As if to spite us, Typhoon Nari just went from a 25 knot depression to a 65 knot typhoon in about 24 hours. One of my posts well prior to landfall said, "Damn! Mr. Humberto appears to be binging. I honestly believe if it had enough water to do it, it would rapidly intensify to God knows how strong. Texas is going to hate it, but I think they'd rather swallow this pill now than leave Humberto over that water to explode." Anything can happen in the tropics. That's part of why it's so fascinating. You name it, it's probably happened at least once in the past 150 Atlantic seasons. 2005 taught me that. 2007's reinforcing it. Expect the unexpected. Especially in September. If you peruse the UNISYS archive or my carefully compiled Hurricane Hall of Fame, you'll find many facinating and incredible things. It appears we have yet another to add to the list. -- SkyFury 22:22, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Melodramatics or not, it appears you're getting some rain over there ; ) . <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:15, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh boy! We're getting soaked right now. Traffic was absolutely abyssmal. -- SkyFury 22:38, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * We're gettin' some up here, buddy boy. Hurricanes can be great things. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 22:54, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * We're having about an inch of rain in Ontario too. That dropped the temperature around 10C (20F) in ~2 hours. The remnants of Humberto and the storm that gave us showers are still trying to merge with each other. Doesn't look like it will recurve anymore. This storm is just going to pull Humberto along with it. This is good news for Texas and Louisiana. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:52, 14 September 2007 (UTC)

It's good news for everyone. I'd crack open a bottle of champagne if I could. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 23:53, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yes, indeed. We should feel awfully fortunate given the little warning that only one person needs to be buried. I'm sure several Texans are almost thankful enough to attend his funeral. -- SkyFury 18:47, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * An extremely moral person might curse at you for that, but I'd agree ; ). Thank the sky! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:19, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
I think you can guess which feature this is. Yep, it's the low a couple hundred miles away from the Lesser Antilles. It's not official on NHC, but it's been declared on NRL. Did anyone expect 92L from this guy? <font color="#000000">IP 16:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I can't believe it, but if my eyes aren't wrong i'm seeing a new INVEST. May be not like 2005, but this season could turn crazy. Hurricane at 870 mb 16:05, 9 September 2007 (UTC)
 * It's already been crazy with two Cat. 5 landfalls in a row. ;) For this system, it's hard to say. I like the look of it, seems somewhat organized, but it hasn't caught the eye of NHC yet. Without looking at the models ahead of time, I would say that, if this formed into something (Tropical Depression/Storm Humberto), it would either go through Cuba/Dominican Republic or Florida (the later of which is supported by the models). - Enzo Aquarius 16:27, 9 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I've been looking at this thing with suspicious eyes for quite a while, and never has it looked like this before. And this season is really looking strange so far, with so few hurricanes. However, if it gets enough throughout the fall, then it could be quite a bit above average. Another burst of INVESTs, however, are exactly what this year [doesn't] [need]s to become above average [good]. <font color="#000000">IP 17:04, 9 September 2007 (UTC)
 * This one is actually impressing me more than the one off Cape Verde. It looks more organized that 91L. And the models race it toward Florida. -- SkyFury 17:35, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

It does look pretty good, and 91L IS kinda disorganized as well. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Floater up and numbered. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Ughh. Not happy. Tried to log into my Wikia account SargeAbernathy, tried to get my password, and they sent me a new password to an email I no longer have. So that means I've got to start all over with Sarge_Abernathy. Live and learn. ANYHOO. I was surprised when i woke up and saw Tropical Storm Gabrielle had just come ashore, and underneath her name at the wunderground site were three invests that weren't there before. Including an invest in the Gulf! I agree with the few out there that 92L here is much more interesting to watch. If it does develop, perhaps it will drag ... uhh which one is behind it, 90? ... perhaps it'll drag the one behind it along. Sarge Abernathy 18:46, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Out of curiosity, are all four floaters now in operation at the same time? Sarge Abernathy 18:46, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Yup. Second time this year. Good to see ya, I guess. Although I'm pretty sure 91L and 92L are too far apart, the consensus here seems to be in favor of 92L's development. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:38, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy crud! SHIPS turns all three invests into hurricanes! And get this, it makes 90L the strongest! This one gets to 71 knots on SHIPS without slowing down, 90L 90 kts, and 91L (god, god, GOD no) becomes Dean and Felix's little brother. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:48, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Doubt it. I don't even think all three will develop. 92L hasn't gotten any better organized all day but the circulation is well defined and conditions are relatively friendly. Patience is a virtue. -- SkyFury 21:39, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It doesn't have enough convection to develop very soon. BTW, if you notice hard, that little surface low is dissipating while another one to the north of it is forming (which might be what's shredding this system, but I don't know). This is a pretty sad little wave. It's like those people you know who always bitch about everything even though their parents just gave up their pensions to by them a Ferrari. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:49, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * What does SHIPS mean? Anyway, maybe it could be right because by looking at the satellite imagery, all three systems appear very organized. The only thing I can be 75% sure it's that we have TD 8 (65 % for Humberto) in our hands (from three invests is very probable that at least one develops into a tropical cyclone). I hope that the next system is a fishie, since this year we have only had fatal hurricane. As Enzo Aquarius said, this season is ALREADY crazy and in my two cents opinion, I think the Atlantic doesn't need another cat5 (neither a cat3).  Hurricane at 870 mb 21:55, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Lows have merged. Convection should refire overnight. If it does, it has a chance. If it's not significant, this thing is D-E-A-D dead. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 22:00, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * SHIPS is an intensity model, acronym means Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 22:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * No more convection. This thing will die, and it will be rubbed into the dirt [water]. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 23:29, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Dissipated[ing]. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:47, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yep, looks like we may have a dud here. The system, though with visible rotation, just looks like it's going. - Enzo Aquarius 02:37, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy crap! Part of this system joined a convective area and now actually looks GOOD! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 23:15, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * R.I.P. -- SkyFury 23:39, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Nevermind then. Waiting for someone to announce it's death since yesterday. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:44, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

AoI- North Central Atlantic (20-25N, 38W)
I've been waiting for the TWD to come out so I could put this up; I've been tracking this system BEFORE ANY OF YOU EVEN NOTICED IT. GFS and CMC develop this into a surface low, quite potentially tropical, with CMC going almost so-far as to suggest hurricane potential (quoting Bob: "Gotta love the CMC"). It looks pretty good on IR. Thoughts? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:38, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's associated with a large tropical wave. There isn't an area of low pressure associated with it, so it's a ways off. But has lingered over the past couple of days, so it's worth watching. However, I believe atmospheric conditons are becoming less favorable for development in the Central Atlantic. -- SkyFury 23:14, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Look at it now, Eric ; ) . I say tropical storm max, might be another bust TD. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:11, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Too far north now. If only it didn't stray... well, on to the next one then! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:15, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Something interesting just appeared there again. It appears to be associated with a relatively nearby low pressure area that's lifting out to the north. -- SkyFury 17:13, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

If it curves south then I might care, but that's just too damn far away from any favorable conditions to develop. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:11, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Cleo became a five out there in 1958. Vince, Epsilon, 2 Noels, Nicole, Otto...a lot happens out there and conditions are forecast to get a bit more favorable. -- SkyFury 23:28, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * If I said that no-one could divide by zero, you'd give me a list of people who've claimed to have done it successfully :P. There's one closer to home that's more interesting though; north of Ingrid. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:01, 17 September 2007 (UTC)

Potential AoI- Near Panama, South Caribbean Sea
Model development, as well as some minor turning apparent. Am I crazy? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:43, 13 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Nope, interesting little thing you found there with some visible rotation. Nice job! If this is to develop into anything, it could be an Atlantic/Pacific system. - Enzo Aquarius 19:59, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yay! This could be bad; it could skirt land twice, go into the Gulf, and pull a Humby (We're going to be saying that for months, trust me). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:33, 13 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Although no other models predict this, MM5FSU45A turns this thing into a hurricane, heading for Jamaica :S . Is this impossible, perhaps? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:34, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy freaking Model-run-by-a-guy-with-a-website! I've never trusted FSU's own models. CMC and UKMET, as well as I think one other take a low out of it though. I don't think cat 3 from this thing is possible UNLESS it gets into the Gulf. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:54, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Too close to land and it has gotten less organized during the day. These showers have no point of rendezvous, just anarchy. That's never a recipe for success. I'm not even sure it's worthy of the title "area of disturbed weather". Unless it moves away from land, I don't think it stand a chance, and even if it does, it has a looong way to go. -- SkyFury 23:20, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

That's why it's a "potential AoI". Ya gotta read the memos! I don't see anything from this until into next week though, I don't think what they're developing is what's there right now. Look to the same area for a few days, and you might see something. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:12, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * 1969's Hurricane Martha started off around the same area, to be the only initial landfall in Panama in Atlantic hurricane history (It also reminds me of Humberto with a quick development). Possible repeat? - Enzo Aquarius 02:14, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * :0 GFS takes something out of here! This IS a potential AoI! The problem is, it's not here yet! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 23:12, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Err, you may think I'm a n00b for asking this, but what's an AoI and what does it stand for :S ? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:56, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Looking at the satloops, it seems to be rotating. It also has generally higher convection around the sides and less inwards, indicating a possible eye. It's also heading towards 96.E, and I'm surprised this isn't an INVEST yet. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:13, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

'''N00B! N00B! N00B!''' Not really :P AoI means area of investigation; it's what we say when we can't say 'INVEST'. I'll look at the satloops and see for myself. Hope you're not turning into me or Cyclone1. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I thought it meant "Area of Interest". That's what it was when we were still posting new and potential storms on the Wikipedia talk pages. I'm only 18 but I feel like an old guy here. I've been doing this for almost three years. -- SkyFury 18:52, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, just for the record, I've been editting wiki for about a year now, been interested in hurricanes (and tracking them) for about 5 years now, been interested in weather for about 10 years now, etc, and don't ask me about my age. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * They both work, but no-one ever actually says what it means anymore, and area of investigation sounds more official :P. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:21, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy crud, there's something out there (finally)! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:35, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Hmm, some rotational wind shear in the area. NGPS places this as a north-bound Tropical Storm that will go through Cuba then reach southern Florida in about 6 days. If this develops into something, we could see it in about 3 days. - Enzo Aquarius 03:44, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

Upper level winds are supposed to improve a bit but a tropical wave is moving in from the east (see below). If we're talking about drifting northward, then that tropical wave could swallow it like a cheese burrito. -- SkyFury 17:18, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * AoI (ay-oh-i) n. a term developed in 2005 by Wikipedia used to describe an area of particular tropical concern. Continued in 2006 and discontinued in that year as well. Stands for "Area of interest". The terms were originally titleds by month, week, and a letter to determine which AoI was being discussed, followed by a location (example: The second AoI of the third week of July north of Panama would be titled "AoI:07W3B South Caribbean"). After their cancellation and the creation of the Hurricane Wikia, they were shortened to simply AoI: Location. (such as AoI: South Caribbean). Not to be confused with AOL, which is a relatively poor internet service. Cyclone1 (20:01 UTC -16/09/2007)

AoI- Southwest of Cape Verde Islands
From the latest TWO: SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEMS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. --Patteroast 05:50, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy Freakin Hurricanes! Look at the goddamn thing! Look at it! ACK! That is evil! I saw that yesterday, but it wasn't enough for me to put up an AoI, but WOW. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 11:30, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * How come some Models develop three tropical storms this week? RoswellAtup 16:02, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * A: Drugs. Do I really need to remind everybody that it is September during an active cycle? There are going to be a lot of interesting waves coming off Africa. A handful of them will develop (this isn't quite 2005). -- SkyFury 18:56, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

Oh, screw off. Hyperbole is natural human folly, not something to be bitched about. But an AoI that is just put up should not take up TOO much space; you're right in that case. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:31, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Speaking of models and drugs, the CMC has four system simultaneously in the EPac, as well as (in the Atlantic) about four tropical storms/hurricanes popping out of nowhere and making landfall soon after. GFS shows something coming out of the AoI spawner (see above section), and going into the gulf, straight into the Panhandle, and then through the Land of Eric, quite potentially getting hurricane status along the way. Oh, by the way, if anyone cares, this thing got slaughtered while I was away. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:38, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * This thing is on 8N now, but actually looks rotating... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:54, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Indeed, showing rotation in the wind shear data as well (thanks for that site IP!). If this develops more, I can see this entering depression status in a couple of days, if not INVEST. Some models are even putting this thing, if it develops, to be close to Ingrid as it moves along. Could have twins! - Enzo Aquarius 03:32, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * What site? I never gave you a wind shear site! I know where to get one, but... Nevermind. These convective/low[ish] things are popping up all over the place. CMC is looking more and more right... This is scary. No, this is September. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 12:33, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

Wow, that almost looks like Dean did. It's a bit higher, on 10N, and although the visible looks like crap, the convective signature looks VEERRRRY eerie. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 15:27, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Can't say anything more right now than it bears watching. The convection it's producing right now is impressive but organization is still a little ways off. I'd say we could have an invest soon though. -- SkyFury 17:22, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Central Caribbean
Guess what? The NHC stole CMC's secret crack stash! They found this thing in the Central Caribbean, noticed that they're eyes were bleeding, and decided, "It must be a sign!" I don't get it, but there's this thing up on the TWO, but I would've declared it yesterday and took it down today. Something about 40 kt shear or whatever. I think they're cracking up, and yes, they are just stoned (I love that song; if you can guess what it is, then I will momentarily enjoy your presence). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 16:35, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I disaggree. NHC says shear is weakening. I think it bears watching. -- SkyFury 17:25, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Of course it bears watching, otherwise I wouldn't have put it up, but I'm just saying that it'll only have a chance in a few days, because any development within the next few days would be extraordinarily unrealistic. And you didn't even READ the bit about the song, did you :P? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:00, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Didn't recognize the song. My personal favorite reference was when future Dean and future Erin formed at around the same time: "Send lawyers, guns and money; the sh!t has hit the fan." -- SkyFury 18:48, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * That was a damn good quote. Whoever said that should get some sort of kickass-barnstar or something. Anyway, the reference was to Basket Case, which is acknowledged as one of the better punk songs. Vintage 1994, Green Day. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:00, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

Looking very nice now! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:19, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * We gotta hold on, ready or not. We live for the models when it's all that we've got. Whoa! We're halfway there! WHOA! LIVIN' ON A PRAYER! Cyclone1 (20:09 UTC -16/09/2007)


 * Bad reference?
 * This place is getting so boring it's turning into a forum. No wait, I mean- <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:56, 16 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Guess what? If this thing develops, it might merge with the AoI near Costa Rica, move into the gulf, and become as strong in terms of pressure as Ingrid! Some things predict the low pressure area of this thing to be the size of Alaska! If that happens, it could overpower Ingrid, and send it Fujiwhara-ing towards the Carolinas, while at the same time, assisting the Bermuda high in feeding it warm moisture! About half of the models predict something like this. If the low isn't that strong, it could still take Ingrid on a crash course towards New England. Could be a storm to watch. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:33, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * PASS THE BONG!!! By the way IP, Warren Zevon came up with that line I gave you several posts ago. Sorry, I don't think you'll be able to give him his barnstar; he's dead :( His lyrics were insane but they were brilliant. He's a fine example of how fine the line is between genius and insanity. Astro, I don't know what you just said there but it hurt my head. I lost you at Fujiwara going to Carolina. -- SkyFury 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Um, we didn't really need to know about your bong. What I meant was, if the low develops, it will send warm air from the south towards Ingrid. The bermuda high is doing the same thing, drawing air from the south. If the low doesn't have enough energy to draw Ingrid around it and northwest, it could go north and hit New England. What does bong have to do with this? Nah, I don't wanna know :P . 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:52, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

You see, he saw your post, and naturally assumed that you had a... Nevermind. And I know that some dead rock star, you give him a pet nickname of Warren Zevon, came up with that quote, but I was talking about the person who quoted him. It was either you or Cyclone1, but I'm thinking you. Ooh, that's a great Chuck Norris fact: Chuck Norris has a barnstar named after him on Wikipedia - that's given out for kicking ass. This system still looks big, but I'm not so sure what big's supposed to do. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:01, 17 September 2007 (UTC)

INVEST reports
Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Not as far as I know. Bob rulz 17:26, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

Interesting models
I don't know if this is important, but I found a very interesting Fujiwhara interaction on an eight day old CMC forecast. Link 68-100-190-56 16:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Edit - If anyone finds any really interesting models, it could be interesting to group them here. Here's one of four cyclones forming (again from CMC): Link 68-100-190-56 16:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 17:19, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The most recent one turns Dean into a cat 5. 68-100-190-56 18:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't rule that out. Bob rulz 18:29, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

I would trust the CMC on that count at this point. 68-100-190-56 21:05, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

Hmm...
Sorry for the extra header, but we have plenty of them don't we? Anyway, there seems to be a (somewhat) consensus on the models that go out that far that in a few days, after this wave of Africa, we will have something tropical in nature. Check out the GFS and you'll see what I mean. Any ideas? IP 23:38, 29 August 2007 (UTC)

Model predictions
I remember last year seeing links to plots of model projections (on Wikipedia of course) for all invests. I can not seem to find the link, does anyone know what I'm talking about? -Runningonbrains 17:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Hmm... No, I don't remember that. What kind of format were they in? IP 18:16, 30 August 2007 (UTC)

Model runs and Model plots. -- RattleMan 22:11, 31 August 2007 (UTC)

Model sites
Could some of you provide the model sites you use? It would be very helpful to quite a lot of us. Thanks, IP 23:34, 30 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Here is a graphic model page that shows all the models at once. Just change the 96 in the URL to whatever the current invest is to see the model plots. Cyclone1 (00:56 UTC -31/08/2007)


 * Thanks. I've been there before, but frankly, I had no idea what it was ^-^' IP 01:16, 31 August 2007 (UTC)

2 Cat5 no other hurricanes
Fourth time we have had two Cat 5 hurricanes in a season. This is the first of these where we haven't had an earlier hurricane of another category. This seems pretty weird. If you start looking for things like this, you probably find them nevertheless it still seems weird. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:02, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * 1958 1977 1980 1992 had a category 5 as first hurricane of season so probably not all that weird. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:19, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * What probability would you put on it? If first hurricane of season being cat5 is a 1 in ten chance (5 times in 57 years from 1950 when records become reasonable) and there is also a 1 in 10 chance of a second cat 5 in a season (4th time since 1950) then perhaps a 1 in 4 chance (happened in 1960 not in other 2 years / 4 occasions) of no hurricanes between two cat 5 hurricanes. Is 1 in 400 years a reasonable assessment of how unusual? crandles 81.86.39.6 12:51, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * If there's a 1/10 chance of the first hurricane being a cat5 and a 1/10 chance of the second hurricane being a cat5 that means there's a 1/100 chance of the first two hurricanes being cat5. Pretty simple eh.  But that's not a large enough sample set to make any kind of judgement on.  Surely climatology and the favorable environment in the caribbean while there's an unfavorable environment elsewhere is more to blame. 66.243.195.90 16:59, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Both of you are somewhat incorrect, there has never been a statistical observation of two category fives forming one after another with only one storm in between (in the Atlantic basin) (Ethel was NOT a cat 5, and it shouldn't be considered one), thus raw statistics cannot be used to predict the probability of the event. That's pretty scary though. <font color="#000000">IP 17:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Discounting Ethel in 1960, this is the first time the first two hurricanes of the season were Category 5's. Another excuse for me to talk about just how amazing the West Pacific is: In 1997, that basin had three consecutive storms with winds of at least 180 mph! Man, I love that place! -- SkyFury 21:20, 3 September 2007 (UTC)

Then why don't you go live there? ; )  <font color="#000000">IP  21:27, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I may well be wrong about Ethel but if so, should List_of_notable_Atlantic_hurricanes and Hurricane_Ethel_%281960%29 be edited?


 * I don't expect my estimate of the odds to be perfect - odds depend on your subjective Bayesian priors. Yes the past isn't necessarily a guide to the future and all that. However it should be possible to make a subjective estimate of the odds and what else are you going to base it on?

"If there's a 1/10 chance of the first hurricane being a cat5 and a 1/10 chance of the second hurricane being a cat5 that means there's a 1/100 chance of the first two hurricanes being cat5. Pretty simple eh."


 * Possibly but also possibly wrong. If they are independent yes but there is the possibility that there is an relationship that makes this untrue. What does the data indicate? 24 Cat 5s in 57 years occuring independently would mean an expectation of ~6 years from 1950 with two cat 5 but we have only had 3. Maybe this is just chance or maybe there is a relationship that makes them unlikely to occur in same year/close to one another. A more important question might be whether the answer is changing with time due to global warming. My estimate could be a long way out.


 * Re "raw statistics cannot be used to predict the probability of the event" they cannot be used to calculate the odds with confidence but if you accept there is going to be huge error margins and still want to try then the raw data may still help - what else you are going to use? - a weather/climate model perhaps but you are still going to need to use the data to see if your model is plausible. crandles 88.105.72.76 22:53, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * In a chaotic system like weather, there is no way to predict long term trends on a mesoscale level. Weather forecasts beyond 15 days tend to be unreliable and at 30 days they have no meaning whatsoever. The facts are that there is no way. Plus, this entire chain of reasoning is flawed because there are fluctuations of factors on many levels, from 10 years to hundreds of years. And Ethel was officially a category five, but the results are so dubious that I consider it impossible. But why argue? The facts are that the chances of this are pretty darned small, because it's never happened before. <font color="#000000">IP 23:33, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well I think I agree the chain of reasoning here is flawed and we are certainly never going to reach a decision on what the odds are. 'Pretty darn small' is as close as we might get. This crazy odds stuff was intended as a bit of fun. If however we were talking about total hurrince numbers then I would say you are protesting too much - weather forcasting beyond 15/30 days is impossible but that does not mean that climate forecasting is impossible. That would be like saying because I cannot predict the value of the next roll od a fair dice then I cannot predict the total of 1000 dice rolls will be close to 3500. "many levels, from 10 years to hundreds of years" - I can only assume you are implying AMO. The evidence for this is weak compared the evidence for the effect of global warming. AMO possibly does better at explaining hurricane numbers than global warming but if there is better evidence for global warming then it becomes more likely that it is a combination of global warming plus some other effects - perhaps things like deforrestation of Africa causing more dust storms. It is not easy to do attribution but it isn't impossible either. crandles 81.86.39.6 11:32, 4 September 2007 (UTC)

Two cat5s at landfall without other category hurricanes wow the odds of that are somewhat lower. crandles 81.86.39.6 12:40, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * (Create an account, Randles, we'd love to have you.)2007 is now also the first year to see a hurricane make landfall from both oceans on the same day during the past half century. -- SkyFury 21:36, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * June 2, Barry and Barbara. (TS) September 5. Felix and Henriette. (H) Both sets hit North America on the same day as each other. Cyclone1 (22:24 UTC -5/09/2007)


 * I thought he was referring to the fourth! (Henriette made landfall on Baja). That's really something though. Suppose this is a real record breaker in twos. <font color="#000000">IP 22:32, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * According to NHC, the center of Barry didn't officially make landfall until it was a tropical depression. -- SkyFury 14:21, 6 September 2007 (UTC)

"Discounting Ethel in 1960, this is the first time the first two hurricanes of the season were Category 5's." Even if we DID count Ethel as a Category 5, regardless of accuracy, Abby and Cleo were the first two hurricanes of 1960 and not Donna and Ethel, so 1960 didn't have the first two hurricanes as Category 5s, just the first season where two consecutive named storms were Category 5s. Jake52 My talk 18:06, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * A well put point. How many records (or other notable circumstances) do we have so far? Add to the list and sign if you can -


 * As stated by Cyclone1, the first time that on two different occasions two storms in both hurricane basins made landfall on the same day


 * The first time that two cat 5 landfalls have occurred in one season


 * Only the fourth (third) time two cat fives have formed in one season


 * Discounting Ethel, the first time cat five storms have been separated by less than four storms (four storm difference occurring between Wilma and Rita)


 * The first time that the first two hurricanes of a season were cat fives


 * The quickest TD-cat 5 intensification on record in any basin (Felix)


 * The third fastest 24-hour intensification in any basin (also Felix)


 * The ninth most intense Atlantic hurricane ever (Dean)


 * I believe only the second time that two cat 5s have followed in extraordinarily close tracks (2005 having Katrina and Rita)


 * Any more? <font color="#000000">IP 19:32, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't think that this was the first year we've seen two storms of any strength make landfall from both basins on the same day, but I do believe it was the first time both storms were hurricanes. -- SkyFury 23:28, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Sorry, meant to fix that, it's the only time when one of the events involved two hurricanes. I still think that Barry could well have been a tropical storm (40 mph) at landfall though. Even so, with or without the hurricane note, there is the fact that if it's happened before, it probably only happened once or twice :P. <font color="#000000">IP 23:52, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's rare, I'll give you that. That I don't think is disputable. -- SkyFury 04:45, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

This year so far seems to be an "all or nothing" year: either it goes to Cat 5 (and having two storms go Cat 5 in the space of two weeks is impressive enough) or it doesn't make it to Cat 1. The only other time I have seen something similar is the 1984 season before September 23, in which there were two Cat 4s and the rest fizzled out. But the "second half" of the season changed that with Hortense. 147.70.242.40 20:22, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I take it back... a little. There was only Diana before Hortense broke the string. 147.70.242.40 20:26, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

Just wondering, but if Ingrid forms from TD8, wouldn't that make 2007's season the first season where the number/name system got screwed up? (8th Depression=Ingrid and 9th Depression=Humberto) Jake52 My talk 02:57, 13 September 2007 (UTC) (EDIT: The first Atlantic season, I mean. I believe something similar occured with Dalila and Erick in 2001 Pacific.)
 * Decidedly not. In fact, it has happened several times. The first that pops into my brain is Inga and Jenny in 1961. The depression that became Jenny formed a full four days before Inga formed. In 1980, two storms (Earl and Frances) formed before the depression that became Georges got a name. Those are just two that come to mind. There are unquestionably others. (EDIT: Also, in 1979 during post-analysis of Hurricane Frederic, it was found it had become a tropical storm six hours before Tropical Storm Elena did.) -- SkyFury 23:26, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

Tracking Sites
Curious question for you all, what website do you use to track hurricanes, like sites or programs that display cloud cover (to find those AoLs you post) or radar? - Enzo Aquarius 20:02, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I use a runner system for NCEP provided models, as well as others, located here, and I also know of a place listed under a similar section a few sections up that Cyclone1 provided. Another place to look is weatherunderground, which compiles tracking models and SHIPS intensity model, as well as a special GFDL runner that shows local cloud cover. Also, the loops on the SSD (look at satellites under get storm info on the NHC) can be very helpful. Look for anything that could become tropical in the models, and you'll find whatever's out there. Good luck with that! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 20:39, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I use the National Hurricane Center's website. It's hard to get more official than that. They have a trove of cool stuff. Satellite in a myriad of forms (Visible, 4 different IRs, rainfall imagery, sea surface temperatures, and surface winds) There are six storm-specific "floaters" (four in the Atlantic and two in the Eastern Pacific) and six different views of the Atlantic all updated every half hour. They also have 5 different views of the Pacific updated every half hour. If that somehow isn't enough, they have links to other sites that have extensive satellite imagery. You can get still images or loops and radar images and loops from dozens of stations across the nation from Alaska to Miami. Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam. Their advisory postings are up to the minute. You can watch each storm's every breathing minute. Everything is right there for you. I wouldn't hinge my faith on any other place. -- SkyFury 23:54, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Much appreciated! Thanks a bunch! :) - Enzo Aquarius 02:16, 14 September 2007 (UTC)

Retirements At A Glance
It's currently peak season for the Atlantic and we've had storms from Andrea to Ingrid. My question is simple: What names do you think may stand a chance of retirement thus far? My speculation and chances are:
 * Andrea: 5%. May storm. Minimal damage, but indirectly responsible for 6 deaths.
 * Barry: 2%. Little damage and killed fewer than Andrea, although one death was direct.
 * Chantal: 0%. Almost completely forgettable.
 * Dean: 95%. Smashed Jamaica and killed 40+ total.
 * Erin: 20%. Added to already major flooding problem. 18 total deaths, half direct. Klaus-like.
 * Felix: 90%. Over 100 deaths in Nicaragua. Severe damage likely.
 * Gabrielle: 5%. Forgettable.
 * Humberto: 30%. Only one death, but going by USD values at the time of the hurricane, surpassed Diane and Lili in terms of damage, and both of these were retired. Outside shot at retirement.

So overall, I think the retirements for this year will definently include Dean and Felix. Erin may also get retired if the monetary damages from it are high enough when released and Humberto may get retired if the current estimates are correct. Any other ideas or opinions? Jake52 My island 02:08, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I say Dean and Felix will definitely get the boot. Anything else thus far is extremely doubtful to no retirement period. - Enzo Aquarius 04:32, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I say Dean 75% (there have been much, much worse) and Felix 70% (same reason). Humberto 15%, Erin 9%, the others I don't see getting retired in a million years. If you want, I will say that these a wee bit conservative, and I do hope that Felix is retired, Dean maybe (since those were the nicest SOB storms I've ever followed in this basin, maybe scratch Wilma). All four of these could be conceivably retired, but I put the chances of all four at around zero. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 11:35, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I think Felix has a better chance of getting retired than Dean. To be clear, I think both should be retired, but Felix is Nicaragua's worst hurricane since Joan in 1988. I rank deaths higher than damage because deaths have a greater psycological impact than damage. Retirement is based on the impact it had on a society as a whole. I believe that storms with high death tolls have a greater impact on a culture than those with just high damage. This is why the non-retirement of Hurricane Gordon infuriated me to a greater extent than most people. -- SkyFury 19:17, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Just like Megadeth trying to get over Jethro Tull winning the "Heavy Metal" Grammy over them, eh? Anyway, being Cat 5 does not guarantee a retirement (see Emily; the Cleo that got the name retired was not a Cat 5 but a Cat 4 that did some damage afterward). Felix will be retired, and right now I'd say that Humberto is slightly more likely to be retired than Dean (if Jamaica doesn't nominate Dean for retirement, see it in 2013!). 147.70.236.93 21:18, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

I never consider deaths particularly important unless they total above 300. In the case of storms like Mitch, non-retirement is not an issue, on the other hand, storms like Wilma are also guaranteed to be retired. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:23, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * About Jamaica and Dean's chances, correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it Jamaica and not Mexico that got Gilbert canned? What I find stunning is that this season seems like a mock-up 1988 when it comes to the likely candidates for retirement. Dean was a Gilbert imitator (though not as powerful) and Felix resembled Joan (though so far not as deadly, but more powerful, plus Joan survived Central America). Jake52 My island 22:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'd say Felix will be retired. It killed over 100 people. Dean I'd say there's about a 75% chance. I think the only other storm that really has a chance to be retired is Erin, but that's not likely. What did Humberto do to get retired? I don't see it. Bob rulz 22:46, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Gilbert killed over 300 people in Mexico, I think that kinda sealed that deal Jamaica just was a little icing on the cake. The WMO started using drugs in the early 1990's. They retired Klaus, which killed four people and then they didn't retire Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 which killed 122 people in Venezuela, nor did they retire Gert, which killed 70-90 in Mexico. Then the whole Gordon thing in 1994 which is inexcusable. Gordon was nothing short of an outrage. Period. Other than those, the only other blatent non-retirement I can think of was 1955's Hilda. -- SkyFury 00:46, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You always talk about Gordon dontchya? That was kind of a [very large] blunder on their part. I think it has to do with being a very weak storm at that stage. It's almost like Jeanne (although she was retired). I hold my estimates, though, and plus or minus ten is applicable to Dean and Felix. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:59, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I lost a significant amount of respect for the WMO after I heard about Gordon and you bring up a good point about the intensity. I think Bret wasn't retired for the same reason. I think it took the Allison disaster to make the WMO realize that a tropical storm could actually do significant damage and that it wasn't just negligence. -- SkyFury 18:55, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

We're lucky something like that hasn't happened again. There might actually be a third hit around there; a lot of models are predicting something to go through there. This is a really sucky year weather-wise. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:10, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Third hit where? -- SkyFury 23:38, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You guys are wrong about Chantal, BTW IMO. It caused around 5 million dollars in damage in the area around Placentia Bay. Its residents are still angry the government didn't do enough. So it's not entirely forgettable. Thus, I give it a 3% chance. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:00, 17 September 2007 (UTC)


 * "Storm does less damage than Bill Gates does annually! Global crisis at hand!" WMO does NOT have enough money for all that crack. Third hit Texas. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:28, 17 September 2007 (UTC)