Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season/Dean

AoI: Wave about to come off africa at ~10N
Many, if not all models agree we will see a Tropical Storm just off the coast of Africa by Monday. This could be our storm to start the Cape Verde Season! *crosses fingers* -Winter123 05:52, 10 August 2007 (UTC)

Could someone please post a link to where you all go to look at the development models? Is this just from WeatherUnderground, FNMOC, or are there some really cool sites that I'm unaware of? 134.163.255.11 14:19, 10 August 2007 (UTC)


 * You mean something like this? Anyway, conditions ahead of this wave are really favorable for development. This could be very interesting. Cyclone1 (14:22 UTC -10/08/2007)


 * Either the models have forgottent their ocean couplings again (*cough*Ioke*cough*) or there is something strange out there that I cannot see. 68.100.190.56


 * Yeah it looks like it's being eaten away on the north side by dry air just like all the others. I can't see this developing anymore... -Winter123 18:51, 10 August 2007 (UTC)
 * If that bundle of showers gains any organization by the time it reaches the Windward Islands, call me, but until then, I'm not all that impressed. I've seen tons of waves just like this one look quite good coming off of Africa but then just break apart as soon as they pass the Cape Verdes. -- SkyFury 21:52, 10 August 2007 (UTC)

No dry air. At all. None. Zip. Every model, (please take special notice on the word every) develops this. It'll be interesting. Cyclone1 (21:59 UTC -10/08/2007)


 * Plenty of shear though . This wave's under 30-40 knots of it. That's pretty fierce. -- SkyFury 03:36, 11 August 2007 (UTC)


 * ARGH! THIS THING WON'T LET ME POST, BUT IF THIS GETS THROUGH, IT'S LOOKING PRETTY NICE GODDARNIT! Hold on, did this get through? Ok then, it is (look on meteosat for East Africa) looking pretty nice. 68.100.190.56


 * Hm it does look pretty good. Keep an eye on this it might be a TD in 24 hours if it keeps looking like this. On that note, I'm off. -Winter123 07:51, 11 August 2007 (UTC)

It's been firing deep convection for a while now (~12 hrs). That's persistence. 90L should be classified at anytime. Cyclone1 (12:56 UTC -11/08/2007)


 * Interestingly enough, the models are seeming less ecstatic the more this thing develops. I put it as a TS going into the Carribean, curving ever so slightly to the north. The major models, however, agree than an area of low pressure will develop of the coast of Africa (this does not count that last one, Ukmet, because as far as I can tell it has a mental retardation problem;, it does make a low, just doesn't close it off) and move into the central Atlantic at least at TS strength. As we've seen earlier this season (we have, trust me) the models do often underpredict, so I predict Dean, maximum cat 2, minimum TS. It's looking that good, that consistently. By the way, the NHC has recognized it, and as a "High-amplitude tropical wave", so it must mean that they've decided it's time to give up their vacation and start working again (has anyone else noticed they don't show much excitement in their updates?).68.100.190.56


 * There already is a low off the coast. It's now a development game. I predict this could be a potential threat for Puerto Rico, and eventually Florida. Cyclone1 (16:57 UTC -11/08/2007)

90L.INVEST
The official Navy site is down, but it's on the back up. Behold 90L! Picture won't show up, I hope it's for the Africa wave. Cyclone1 (19:23 UTC -11/08/2007)
 * Ok, the link doesn't work, but trust me it's up. Cyclone1 (19:30 UTC -11/08/2007)
 * Quikscat shows a closed low! Tropical Depression by definition (kinda). Cyclone1 (22:04 UTC -11/08/2007)


 * Latest TWO: A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF AFRICA...IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
 * Ahh, sh*t! I do not like the sound of that. The wave looks pretty unassuming right now but that's one of the things I don't like. A lot of feared names have formed the exact same way. Of course, so have a lot of fish-spinners but still, that's the Devil's Breeding Ground out there. -- SkyFury 23:19, 11 August 2007 (UTC)

GFDL and HWRF both develop this into at least a category two. HWRF, possible three. Cyclone1 (01:00 UTC -12/08/2007)


 * More important, where is it going? The tracking model site I've been using isn't working, so that adds to the discomfort. If it wants to turn out to sea and strengthen into a Category 4, I'd love to see it. That stuff's fun to watch, but I don't want it to get big and hit a place where it can hurt people. -- SkyFury 02:24, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The last time periods for the model show it just at the Virgin Islands. Judging by the location of the Bermuda High, it's likely start curving to the northwest shortly thereafter. Won't know for at least a couple of days (if it does turn into a hurricane) if it would threaten anybody. Wxdiva 03:05, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Hmm, that's interesting, thanks. -- SkyFury 03:09, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It could recurve easily though...but still I can definitely see (major?) Hurricane Dean coming out of this... CrazyC83 03:17, 12 August 2007 (UTC)

It's not recurving. Cyclone1 (14:18 UTC -12/08/2007)
 * The latest TWO says a tropical depression could form later today! The Cape Verde season is open for business. Cyclone1 (15:07 UTC -12/08/2007)


 * And it could get quite uncomfor06:07, 13 August 2007 (UTC)table if this thing develops and heads for the Virgins like Wxdiva said. There have been four Deans, only one was a hurricane (1989). The Atlantic's still waiting for its first. All other northern hemisphere basins have had at least one, in fact all northern hemisphere basins have had a major hurricane form (Gonu, Yutu, Man-Yi, Usagi and Flossie), the ATL's holdin' up the show. -- SkyFury 18:28, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * If all the models I looked at this morning hold true, it just might. Is there any site that gives a general idea of sea surface temperatures? Wxdiva 21:19, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Answered my own question.... Posted for your convenience! Wxdiva 21:39, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The satellite picture continues to improve. I would imagine if the current organization lasts or gets just a little bit better that a depression will be declared. Right now it looks pretty darn good. -- SkyFury 23:02, 12 August 2007 (UTC)

NHC says a TD could form at anytime. $100 bucks says 11:00pm upgrade. Cyclone1 (23:08 UTC -12/08/2007)


 * Hey, I'd love to be $100 ahead but I'm a simple, low income man and don't bet that high. I've learned that very little is a slam dunk in the tropics. I've seen things seemingly right on the verge of forming mysteriously fall apart and not amount to anything. We shall see what 11 pm brings. -- SkyFury 23:46, 12 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Slightly off-topic: The meteorologist on the local news said that if this does form into a hurricane, but turns into a fish-spinner, it would drive some cooler air into the country. Proof that hurricanes are good sometimes. (I for one am tired of the Midwest feeling like a sauna) Wxdiva 00:55, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, I was out roaming around Atlantic Canada for the past 5 days, and I was pretty surprised to see 90L looking so good. It's entering a very low shear area with warm SST's, and it's outflow is very nice. I also expect Tropical Depression Four at least by 5:30 tomorrow. Probably 10:30 tonight. Cainer91 00:59, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Uhh, are you kidding me? Now that's a beautiful part of the world. I'd almost give my right arm to be in Lockeport, Nova Scotia right now. Instead I gotta get up tomorrow at 6:45 in the morning and make the 45 minute drive to school. That's a depressing thought. Wind shear is aparently hindering development of 90L right now although I keep seeing more bright colors on the IR every time I look. -- SkyFury 02:48, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Where did anyone say anything about Nova Scotia? Anyway, yeah, not much new to say. Just have to agree with everyone else; it's looking pretty damn good! Bob rulz 06:06, 13 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Nevermind, I think I see what you were saying. It just didn't quite connect. Anyway, this is offtopic, so I'll stop now. Bob rulz 06:07, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Gone from the navy site... RoswellAtup 12:17, 13 August 2007 (UTC)

04L.NONAME
Models initialize it as TD4. Should be official soon. -- WmE 12:57, 13 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, I lost $100 bucks, but hey. We'll still have a depression by 11. Cyclone1 (13:35 UTC -13/08/2007)


 * It's official now... TD4... NOAA even brings this depression into a Cat. 2 hurricane in 5 days... RoswellAtup 14:58, 13 August 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
Now up on the NHC site. Forecast to reach 90 knots in 5 days. This thing is dangerous. Cainer91 15:00, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I'm betting that it would dissipate in the next 24 hours RoswellAtup 15:17, 13 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Wanna bet money? 100 bucks says that this will NOT dissipate. I need my money back. Amyway, it's looking like it could be wanting to take an Ivan-esque path... O_O Cyclone1 (16:56 UTC -13/08/2007)
 * Oh man, it looks like the Atlantic is about to quit playing nice. The current forecast path is very similar to that of Georges in 1998, which killed 600 people and who knows what it's going to do after that. We could have a very dangerous hurricane in the central Caribbean by the end of the week. -- SkyFury 20:27, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * it's now disorganized {http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi} RoswellAtup 22:16, 13 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Not anymore! Looking very good! Possibly Dean by 11. Cyclone1 (01:53 UTC -14/08/2007)


 * Not yet upgraded... betcha it will dissipate in the next 48 hours RoswellAtup 7:42, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Quikscat shows a few 55kt barbs near the center. Bethca it won't dissipate in the next 48 hours. Cyclone1 (11:47 UTC -14/08/2007)

Tropical Storm Dean
And it's now official - we have a D. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:08, 14 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, and with the D, models are no longer calling for a recurve. Cyclone1 (16:30 UTC -14/08/2007)
 * This one is making a lot of people nervous, including me. -- SkyFury 18:42, 14 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Holy Freaking S**t! 68-100-190-56 22:54, 14 August 2007 (UTC) (replacement for "new" IP number)
 * Just hope Dean doesn't hit Hispaniola as a Category 5. Haiti can't even deal with Category 1 hurricanes. 69.86.16.159 21:34, 14 August 2007 (UTC)
 * Haiti can't even deal with much lower than that (ex: 2004 Tropical Wave and Jeanne, which spanned all of TD to Cat1 during Hispaniola). As long as Dean passes quickly, we won't have to worry about a re-Jeanne or, heaven forbid, a re-Flora. Jake52 My talk 01:34, 15 August 2007 (UTC)

900MBAR?! It's Ioke all over again! Cyclone1 (22:08 UTC -14/08/2007)


 * Yeah, I don't get it either. However, other models seem to turn into a major hurricane anyway. I almost think we can make

 Major Hurricane Dean 
 * But not really (thank god!) 68-100-190-56 22:58, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It could be. With each advisory, the track forecast gets even worse. It keeps expanding west...wrong direction! The situation in the tropics right now can be summed up by the words of an aged rocker: "Send lawyers, guns and money, the sh*t has hit the fan." -- SkyFury 23:51, 14 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It still looks kind of sad on infrared imagery. But...that'll change soon enough. This is the first storm we really have to look out for this year. Bob rulz 03:30, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I guess it could be upgraded into a hurricane in the next forecast. I'm also guessing that it would be the last time a storm will be named Dean because it's going to be retired. RoswellAtup 04:17, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * HWRF and GFDL as cat 4 + hitting Yucatan. EDIT: Not anymore, but I'm doubtful of the models anyway.68-100-190-56 10:49, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * S**t s**t s**t!I don't even WANT to know what "entire grid undefined" means (even though it probably has nothing to do with Dean). 68-100-190-56 13:22, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Whoa! I don't like what the models are doing with this. Anyway, it won't become a hurricane today, I don't believe. Winds are still at 50. Cyclone1 (14:12 UTC -15/08/2007)

If no-one minds, I'm going to put up some links to models I find particularly disturbing: CMC, GFS, Apparently a homegrown model, FSU MMS (listed as 'mm5fsu'), and last, an "experimental" WRF. 68-100-190-56 14:43, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * (first edit conflict of the year!) It's up to 60mph. Hurricane by 11 tonight? (NOT betting!) Cyclone1 (14:46 UTC -15/08/2007)


 * God... If this thing improves at this rate, we will. If we do... I don't want to think about what it'll do if GFS has the correct track. 68-100-190-56 15:04, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I spy with my little eye, what looks like a little eye trying to form. (link is not dynamic.) Cyclone1 (15:41 UTC -15/08/2007)


 * I think that I read something from the NHC recently that talked about an eye beginning to form. Continues to look better and better. 68-100-190-56 15:48, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The five PM intensity forecast is rather chilling: ...THERE DO NOT SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF DEAN...GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL HURRICANE. -- SkyFury 21:02, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * O_O Cyclone1 (21:24 UTC -15/08/2007)

If it gets into the gulf (32 degrees) it'll raise hell. If it hits Texas, the coast will become a disaster area. 68-100-190-56 21:42, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Look at that (next to the high-topped thunderstorm).Doesn't that look like a forming eye? I say forming because convection still surrounds it. Winds 65 mph. Also, forecast to become a hurricane next advisory (looks like it will make it tonight [did I mention that that's what I said?]) 68-100-190-56 21:52, 15 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It looks to be a small storm, at least right now, which helps. The tropical storm force winds don't extent out very far. I don't think any of us will be awake to see it become a hurricane. Even at the rate it's going, it probably won't become a hurricane until early tomorrow morning. Dean's projected path and forecast intensity remind me of Hurricane Emily in 2005. Mexico was definately not having any fun during that little windstorm. (And Erin reminds me of a little bit of Charley in 1998, although weaker.) Ah, the Dog Days of summer! -- SkyFury 23:48, 15 August 2007 (UTC)

Update on some models, mainly the same, GFS threatening Texas with Dean (god I hate the GFS right now) 68-100-190-56 00:00, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Dean is at 70mph, 986mbar! So close to hurricane status! First storm to go below the 990's! Cyclone1 (02:42 UTC -16/08/2007)


 * HOw come the NHC says that Dean's pressure is only 991mbar? RoswellAtup 02:50, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Overnight and it's a hurricane. Interesting with HWRF, it seems to suggest that Dean will die, against all possible reasoning. GFDL slight Cat 4 (probably only cat three, considering wind level), GFS looks like a Cat 4 (curves toward Texas through Yucatan), others look the same. Well, we found our first hurricane. 68-100-190-56 02:52, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I'm predicting that Dean would be remain a tropical storm tomorrow due to shear, dry air and anticyclonic winds and would dissipate within 48 hours RoswellAtup 03:07, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Hate to disappoint, but all signs point to a hurricane tomorrow. Such is life. Wxdiva 05:02, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

Hurricane Dean
Although the NHC page is not showing reports, the headline says they're issuing advisories on T.S.Erin and Dean, which they're calling a hurricane. This jives with the NRL site, which says it has 75mph and 987 mb. Jake52 My talk 09:28, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Officially Hurricane dean on newest report, forecast to remain a hurricane for the rest of its life. I believe the above values are correct as well (though pressure may be slightly lower). 68-100-190-56 10:59, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Model update: Cat 4 hit on Yucatan, enters Gulf,and curves northward. Might kill Texas :(. Worst of all, one of the lesser models shows that there might be a potential Cat 2 - Cat 4 hit on Haiti as a small storm. The only models that don't favor this are the ones that haven't been for a while, and they seem to go against all possible evidence. This is not up to date, however, as these models were run at 0000 today, while I believe Dean became a Hurricane slightly afterwards. Also, on an interesting note, the models that have the pressure most correct are the worst ones. 68-100-190-56 11:06, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Sorry for so many posts in such a short time, but I just got on, and am getting incremental info. Anyway, Dean is the nicest looking storm I have seen in a long time (in the Atlantic), its got just the tiniest little bit of an eye forming, clearly noticeable on IR. Watches are up for almost all of the Lesser Antilles. 68-100-190-56 11:17, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * There's some nice banding going on, and an eye is starting to form. It's also a pretty small storm. This thing is going to become a monster (sorry I said it, but I don't see any reason why it won't!). Bob rulz 12:27, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I say 65% Cat 4 if it doesn't make into the Gulf, and if it does, I don't want to discuss the possibilities right now. 68-100-190-56 12:31, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

It has a visible eye. Cyclone1 (12:50 UTC -16/08/2007)


 * Pinhole? Cyclone1 (12:51 UTC -16/08/2007)


 * From what I can see. 68-100-190-56 14:10, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh god no! Anything but that! 68-100-190-56 14:16, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Words cannot describe my reaction to that model run... Cyclone1 (14:40 UTC -16/08/2007)


 * If that model run turns out correct, we might as well just nuke New Orleans and get it over with. The aftermath wouldn't be much different. Bob rulz 17:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

NHC says it'll reach Cat 4 if it doesn't go into the Gulf. This is game over, man. Game over. 68-100-190-56 14:53, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Further forecast update puts Dean on a more northward track. The last one was more northward than the one before it. Trend? 68-100-190-56 15:13, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Eye more defined now, but it is certainly a weird looking storm. Organized, but weird. 68-100-190-56 17:10, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Recon's in the storm now. The wind field looks to be expanding, and the storm itself (not the wind field) is getting huge. The outer rain bands should be affecting the Lesser Antilles within a few hours. Bob rulz 17:25, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I think you're right. A monster. CMC puts it on an Emily-esque track, only stronger. By the way, it is looking very nice lately. GFDL puts it almost at Cat 5 as well, and at Central Louisiana (not nearly as bad) landfall. 68-100-190-56 17:49, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

HWRF puts it at 887 hPa! 68-100-190-56 18:33, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Already Cat 2, getting stronger, bearing down on the Lesser Antilles. 68-100-190-56 20:44, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't know about those wild Category 5 predictions, but I do know that NHC saying that "there appear to be no factors that would prevent further intensification of Dean during the forecast period" is not good. Jamaica and Mexico should be very concerned. On its current forecast track, Dean could be a very destructive hurricane. The more and more I look at it, the more and more it reminds me of Emily, which, because of great preparation, wasn't too bad so who knows. -- SkyFury 21:12, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, HWRF almost surely has it wrong, and it's probably not that bad, but it definitely could become worse than Emily, and Hispaniola and the Gulf Coast should still be very attentive to this storm. BTW, all but two models take it to what looks like a Cat 4. 68-100-190-56 21:49, 16 August 2007 (UTC)


 * It's dragging out now, it might be just the sunlight, and the eye is looking pretty well-defined on convection IR. I think it'll probably compact that tail and grow out from the center, because at this point is way bigger than the real "Storm" part. BTW, Lesser Antilles experiencing outer rainbands. 68-100-190-56 23:14, 16 August 2007 (UTC)

Quoting from Jeff Masters's blog, where he doesn't have so much of a history for making over-the-top statements...: "Two storms in the historical record with a similar tracks and intensities to what we might expect for Dean in the Caribbean were Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 and Hurricane Ivan of 2004."--65.94.45.136 01:21, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * This is starting to get intense. BTW, it is losing it's outer bands a little, and it's reforming it's eye, so tomorrow we should have Cat 2-3 well defined eyed Dean. 68-100-190-56 01:48, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Hell. Yes. I'm seriously not liking what I see.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:50, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * God, [all] models still take it to strong Cat 4 / Cat 5, and it's giving HWRF technical difficulties. 68-100-190-56 01:54, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, the people of the Caribbean probably feel like hostages watching a captor load and cock his gun. And they live on islands. Unless they have a plane ticket, they got nowhere to go. -- SkyFury 02:17, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * The islands all have higher ground they can go to though, and they aren't that prone to storm surge. CrazyC83 02:49, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Though the NHC doesn't say it directly, it seem to think that Dean is weakening... Satellite pictures are now showing that Dean is beginning to disorganize... RoswellAtup 03:45, 17 August 2007


 * Sorry, no deal. There's no hint of anything that might suggest that that I can see. Dean, at least this morning, is looking like a hellbender (god I love that word!) 68-100-190-56 11:02, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * By hellbender, I mean Cat 4 (it looks like one, check it out). On an even less light note, four of the models say Major Hurricane hits Texas, with two suggesting a cat 4/cat 5 hit on Houston, another hitting similar intensities near Corpus Christi, with another hitting very close to the Texas border in Mexico. Ukmet, in a loss of all hope whatsoever, says CAT 2 HIT IN HAITI FOLLOWED BY CAT 4 (maybe cat 3) HIT ON HOUSTON! If that's not scary, what is (besides that disturbing GFDL run a few days ago)? 68-100-190-56 11:09, 17 August 2007 (UTC)

Eye looks beautiful now. 68-100-190-56 11:52, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Actually, Roswell, the reason is because it is actually forecast to weaken, then strengthen (I'm not sure why). The wind probs chart says 40% for one after 24 hours, but the next time mentioned says 40% Cat 4-5.


 * Direct hit on Martinique. Damage to a children's hospital in St. Lucia. Dean has strengthened. 105mph, 964mbar. Cyclone1 (14:59 UTC -17/08/2007)


 * From the discussion. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. Cyclone1 (15:04 UTC -17/08/2007)


 * Oh, geez. The wind speed forecasts show that 48 hours from now Dean is more likely to be a category four-five than anything. That is crazy, guys. From what I can remember, Katrina, Rita and Wilma didn't even have that kind of support. Cyclone1 (15:14 UTC -17/08/2007)


 * Actually, 40% for 48 hours isn't unheard of.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:16, 17 August 2007 (UTC)

Not "unheard" of. That's the important word. Anyway, here's the description that pretty much wraps up the "holy s**t" aspect of Dean:

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES (That's really large) ...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

964, as I remember, can often be borderline Cat 3, and by the way, that eye looks small, doesn't it? One thing that's annoying here is that for three days we've gotten the same [bad] information from the models (not necessarily for NHC)- The Caribbean (and perhaps Texas) is screwed. Oh wait, one more thing: I don't remember a cat 2 storm ever getting this much attention from internet users. 68-100-190-56 16:21, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * Dean is bombing out! Recon found 115kts flight level! Note: That's not surface winds, but WOW! Cyclone1 (16:39 UTC -17/08/2007)


 * Wouldn't that be another few mph (3-5)? BTW, the GFDL says winds around 185, which is dubious with pressure of 918, but then again, you saw the problems with HWRF yesterday, didn't you? 68-100-190-56 16:46, 17 August 2007 (UTC)


 * 3-5? 115kts equals 132mph. Cyclone1 (16:50 UTC -17/08/2007)


 * 3-5 EXTRA, as in ANOTHER few mph. 68-100-190-56 16:55, 17 August 2007 (UTC)

Oh. Well either way, Dean is intesnifying. O_O Cyclone1 (17:00 UTC -17/08/2007)


 * I hate having to scroll up so far to reach the edit thing. Can we put in another "Hurricane Dean so we don't have to?
 * But seriously, it does get creepy when you have a storm that is almost universally expected to reach at least strong Category 4. 68-100-190-56 17:11, 17 August 2007 (UTC)