Forum:2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season

Future start
And the NIO forum is up too. Ryan1000 03:59, November 20, 2018 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Pabuk
Pabuk is about to cross into the NIO, where he'll be a cyclone, will likely move northwest and die over unfavorable waters. Still, this has been one heck of a storm to track. Ryan1000 12:19, January 4, 2019 (UTC)


 * Pabuk has lost some intensity, and it is apparently the earliest-in-the-year known storm to hit Thailand and the strongest confirmed landfall there since Typhoon Gay's unusual category 3 landfall there in 1989. No serious damages have been recorded, though 1 or 2 people were killed, sadly.  Ryan1000 00:24, January 5, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Pabuk
Gone for good now. Ryan1000 15:14, January 6, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Fani
The first storm that developed in this ocean, Fani is strengthening right now and is going towards India. The IMD forecasts that it will become a VSCS in 42 hours.  Sandy 156   :)  17:32, April 27, 2019 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani
Holy goodness, this storm is taking off rapidly. Fani is undergoing a RI, currently an ESCS (C3 by JTWC). JTWC peaks it at 140 kn, which is a C5 cyclone, while IMD has it peak as a ESCS. If it intensifies into a C5, it will be the first to reach this intensity in this basin since Phailin in 2013. Fani is forecasted to make landfall in Odisha, but thankfully, it will weaken before its landfall. This could be devastating; hopefully, it’s not that worse than Idai down there.  Sandy 156   :)  23:50, April 30, 2019 (UTC)


 * JTWC actually makes it a strong 3 or weak 4, unless you're looking at the gusts, which are forecast to be 135-140 knots. Cooler SST's near shore should wear Fani down before making landfall on the India/Bangladesh border, as either a weak cat 3 or strong cat 2. Ryan1000 10:49, May 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * I must have seen 140 kn gusts instead of the 115 kn sustained before, oh well, must be paying attention to only the gusts. Anyways, it will hit Odisha in just a couple of days as a weak C3 and peak at 110 knots.  Sandy 156   :)  22:33, May 1, 2019 (UTC)

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=IO012019&starting_image=2019IO01_4KMIRIMG_201905020845.GIF Fani is looking particularly dangerous this morning... ChowKam2002 (talk) 13:04, May 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Woah, looks like the gusts from before might be Fani's peak winds after all! Fani put on a remarkable display of RI recently, significantly overperforming the JTWC's forecast and is now clocking winds of 155 mph and 917 mbars by the JTWC, or 130/939 by the IMD. Maybe this might become a cat 5 before landfall after all...and over what seemed to be cooling SST's as it was nearing the coastline. I guess the lack of wind shear and dry air gave Fani a chance to rapidly organize just offshore. Hopefully India makes it out ok... Ryan1000 15:05, May 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Ok then, after my misreading of the gusts, it somehow managed to intensify into a high-end C4 cyclone. I mean, that’s amazing how it exceeded JTWC’s forecast from before. The pressure has dropped to 937 mbar now. This might be its peak intensity right there since it is getting ready to made landfall anytime time soon (this means that it will not be a C5). I hope this cyclone will not be that deadly.  Sandy 156   :)  00:34, May 3, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall in India
Fani is now roaring ashore near the small town of mainsha, with it's eye passing over Chilika Lake, as a 150 mph category 4 storm. Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated before landfall, but this storm could still inflict very heavy damage, with hopefully little or no loss of life. Ryan1000 02:46, May 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * It has now weakened into a C1 Cyclone by the JTWC and a VSCS by the IMD; unfortunately, 8 deaths have already been reported in Odisha.  Sandy 156   :)  23:13, May 3, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Fani
Rapidly dissipated after landfall. Sadly, 30 deaths have been reported in association with this storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:49, May 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now the death toll has risen to 51; 29 in Odisha, 8 in Uttar Pradesh, and 14 in Bangladesh. The state of Andhra Pradesh has estimated an economic damage of $8.5 million.  Sandy 156   :)  18:24, May 5, 2019 (UTC)

The final damage will likely be higher than that but thankfully the death toll is lower than previous storms, evacuations before the storm were well-executed. Ryan1000 19:20, May 5, 2019 (UTC)

93A.INVEST
Currently monitored by JTWC in the Arabian Sea west of India. Code orange as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:28, June 9, 2019 (UTC)


 * GFS ensembles of this on Tropical Tidbits either take it north paralleling the coast of western India, moving west as it nears the northwestern coastline towards the Arabian Peninsula, or curving northeast to hit Pakistan. The intensity of this storm (Vayu) might be cat 2-3 according to the pressure estimates from the runs (977-965 mbars). Ryan1000 20:08, June 9, 2019 (UTC)

Now under Code Red with a TCFA. Nickcoro (talk) 23:02, June 9, 2019 (UTC)

Depression ARB 01
The IMD recently designates the invest as ARB 01, but it remains code red by JTWC.  Sandy 156   :)  04:41, June 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now it’s designated as 02A by the JTWC. The agency has it peak at 60 kn (70 mph) and then striking the India state of Gujarat at around 40 knots. IMD forecasts the storm to be a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm, striking Gujarat as a Severe Cyclonic Storm.  Sandy 156   :)  18:04, June 10, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Vayu
ARB 01 now intensifies into a cyclonic storm, earning the name Vayu. JTWC now has the storm peaking at 75 knots (85 mph), which is a Category 1 cyclone, while IMD now forecasts it to be a Severe Cyclonic Storm.  Sandy 156   :)  23:16, June 10, 2019 (UTC)


 * JTWC upped their peak forecast to 105 mph, but Vayu might still hit the coast of western India or Pakistan as a category 2 storm with 100 mph (85 kt) winds. Ryan1000 12:47, June 11, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Vayu
This storm took off fast, Vayu has already intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm by the IMD, a Category 2 tropical cyclone by the JTWC. JTWC has again upped the forecast to 95 knots (110 mph) which is a high-end Cat 2.  Sandy 156   :)  03:14, June 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * Their latest forecast now takes Vayu just offshore instead of making landfall, but the collapse of steering currents that could happen around that time could lead to Vayu causing very severe flooding in western India and southern Pakistan. Ryan1000 04:17, June 12, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Vayu
Upgraded to VSCS. Still C2 on the SSHWS though. JTWC expects Vayu to hit the westernmost part of Gujarat and parallel the coast thereafter. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:11, June 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest JTWC track tells Vayu's eye will no longer hit Gujarat. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:32, June 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Vayu is now expected to stay in the Arabian Sea before turning towards the direction of Karachi as a weakening TS-equivalent cyclone. This of course is according to the latest track released by JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:36, June 13, 2019 (UTC)

Looks like India got spared the worst of Vayu, although heavy rains are still a threat to the areas near the coastline. I don't think an Arabian Sea storm has ever taken a track like this near the coast of India before. Ryan1000 07:49, June 15, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Vayu (2nd time)
Man, this storm is getting sheared so badly right now. Down to a cyclonic storm by the IMD and a tropical storm by the JTWC.  Sandy 156   :)  04:58, June 17, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Vayu
Vayu is long gone.  Sandy 156   :)  00:33, June 20, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression BOB 03 (Invest 95B)
New disturbance in the NIO. IMD considers this as a Deep Depression, but it is still a code orange invest on JTWC as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:27, August 7, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of BOB 03 (Invest 95B)
It has dissipated but not without killing at least 3 people and wrecking havoc in eastern India/Bangladesh. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:38, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: East-Central Arabian Sea
Up on RSMC's New Delhi outlook with a "moderate" chance for 48-72 hours and a "high" chance after 72 hours. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:03, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

91A/96A.INVEST
Now an invest but with 2 designations. Looking possible to become at least a depression, maybe even "Hikaa". ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:03, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:32, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code orange, "91A" designation dropped. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:10, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

Depression ARB 02
Now a TD on their website. 25 knots (30 mph)/1002 mbar and expected to intensify. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:39, September 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * A note: please change the heading to 02A if and only if the JTWC issues warnings on the system. The designation 02A is NOT the IMD'S - it is the JTWC's. -- Java Hurricane  06:47, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 02
Up to a DD, TCFA issued, T3.0 on SAB. -- Java Hurricane  17:05, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Hikaa
Sorry for the confusion earlier - these basins can be a bit complicated to figure out designations. It's now officially a tropical cyclone by JTWC and has just been named by IMD. JTWC intensity: 45 knots/50 mph, IMD intensity: 35 knots/40 mph/997 mbar. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:31, September 23, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Hikaa
It's now a severe cyclonic storm. Up to 65 mph/990 mbar according to IMD. Expected to make landfall in Oman by tomorrow night. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:35, September 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * This thing is taking off fast. I think this could peak as a VSCS. Oman should watch out for Hikaa. - Java Hurricane  15:39, September 23, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Hikaa
And it did become one. 85 mph/980 mbar according to IMD and according to JTWC, it's 100 mph. This is probably going to be its peak intensity as it quickly approaches Omen. Hopefully it won't be too bad there. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:07, September 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 90 mph/976 mbar according to IMD. Should be peaking by now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:39, September 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Closing in on landfall, and down to 85 mph/978 mbar. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:19, September 24, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Hikaa (2nd time/landfall in Oman)
It has made landfall and weakened to a SCS, 70 mph/986 mbar. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:16, September 24, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Hikaa
...and it has dissipated over land, hopefully it wasn't too bad there. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, September 25, 2019 (UTC)

Land Depression 01
Looks like this has gone mostly unnoticed. It formed over the Gulf of Kutch on September 29 and became the season's first Land Depression before weakening today to a well-marked low pressure area. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:42, October 1, 2019 (UTC)

97A.INVEST
New invest on Tidbits in the Arabian Sea west of India, strangely not yet mentioned at all on neither IMD's nor JTWC's outlooks. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:44, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code yellow on JTWC, although IMD doesn't give it a chance of formation within the next 5 days (yet). ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:01, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now "High" chance for 96-120 hours on IMD's RSMC bulletin. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:37, October 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to code orange on JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:04, October 22, 2019 (UTC)

TCFA up, but I think the system is classifiable. Strangely enough, the IMD has not yet updated its outlook. The outlook on the site is 2 days old. The invest already looks like a DD or CS. -- Java Hurricane  06:24, October 24, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 03
It's been upgraded to a deep depression and expected to intensify to a VSCS while approaching Omen and Yemen. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:07, October 24, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
35 kt per IMD, 40 kt per JTWC. Forecast to slowly recurve 200 miles off Konkan coast before turning West towards Masirah Island and Muscat. -- Java Hurricane  04:38, October 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Per MW imagery, Kyarr is forming a low-level eye. Kyarr looks poised for RI, and is now expected to become an ESCS. -- Java Hurricane  06:47, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
Now a SCS, 65 mph (55 knots) according to IMD and JTWC, pressure is currently 992 mbar. Still near India at the moment but Omen needs to prepare for this potentially dangerous storm. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:30, October 25, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
65 kt per JTWC and IMD. Forecast to reach 110 kt by JTWC. IMD still takes this towards Masirah Island, but the JTWC'S forecasts turns it to the N halfway between India and Oman. Also, some destruction has been reported from Goa - falling trees, power lines and flash flooding. No casualties so far. -- Java Hurricane  04:06, October 26, 2019 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
It has continued to rapidly intensify and is now an ESCS. 120 mph (105 knots) and 966 mbar according to IMD and a whopping 130 mph (115 knots) according to JTWC. It looks like Fani's standing as the strongest of the season might be in jeopardy. Models seem to differ on where it will go - GFS ensembles on Tidbits recurve it towards a landfall near the Pakistan-India border while CMC ensembles take this offshore Omen and towards the Gulf of Aden. The forecasts on JTWC and IMD seem to be in CMC's favor for now with a southwest curvature offshore Omen. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:00, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * 125 kt from JTWC. 100 kt per IMD. Dvorak is at T7.0 from JTWC and ADT. JTWC broke constraints. SAB still at 6.5. Could be 135 or 140 kt at 09Z.--'' Java Hurricane  02:42, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * BREAKING NEWS!!! BREAKING NEWS!!! BREAKING NEWS!!! THE IMD FORECASTS KYARR TO BECOME A 140 KT SUCS BY 3-MIN WINDS!!!! --'' Java Hurricane  03:50, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

Super Cyclonic Storm Kyarr
Alert! Alert! Alert! Kyarr has become a Super Cyclonic Storm with winds of 125 kt per IMD and a pressure of 920 mbar. Kyarr is the strongest NIO storm since Gonu. -- Java Hurricane  06:30, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Oh. My. God. I never expected such intensification. If this continues, it might even become the most powerful in NIO history. 😮 ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:51, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually, Kyarr seems to be weakening. The W ring is broken and only beginning to recover. Dvorak down to T6.5. Might reach 130-135 kt at 09Z, though it does have 18 more hours to strengthen before SSTs drop off. -- Java Hurricane  07:15, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC forecasts a peak of 155 mph, not sure if that would pan out, but fortunately, Kyarr is expected to weaken before it nears Oman on Friday. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 08:32, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Held by JTWC to 130 kt. Could reach Category 5 overnight, when convection is stronger. -- Java Hurricane  08:52, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

I don't usually post as much on the NIO forum, but this big storm caught my eye lately. JTWC brings it to 155 mph 1-min by tomorrow, though it might be able to briefly hit 160 before weakening. Kyarr will weaken considerably and probably turn southwest while remaining offshore the Arabian Peninsula, and might not make a landfall until Somalia down the road, at which point it'll be much weaker or might even dissipate due to less favorable conditions there. Ryan1000 11:38, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dvorak back to T7.0. -- Java Hurricane  11:42, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * It looks like this surpassed Gonu's intensity to become the strongest named cyclone ever in the NIO but still falls short of being the most powerful ever in the basin, a record that's currently held by the 1999 Odisha cyclone. There's a chance Kyarr might even surpass that cyclone. Currently 155 mph (135 knots) according to JTWC and 150 mph (130 knots), 915 mbar according to IMD. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:35, October 27, 2019 (UTC)

Surpassed Gonu's pressure but is just short of Gonu's 1-minute winds. Still has some time to possibly crack cat 5 though. Also, fun fact: Kyarr is the only super cyclonic storm in the NIO of the 2010's decade. Ryan1000 17:07, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * I don't think it will anymore, seems to have peaked at 135 knots (155 mph) earlier today and is now down to 130 knots (150 mph) according to IMD and JTWC. Pressure currently remains 915 mbars though. It's pretty funny that the first super cyclonic storm of the decade managed to JUST make it in before the decade's end, so unless an extreme miracle happens, it's looking likely to be the only one of the decade. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:23, October 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Weakened a bit to 125 knots (145 mph) according to IMD and a pressure of 920 mbars, while JTWC retains it at 130 knots (150 mph). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:31, October 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down further to 120 knots (140 mph)/940 mbar according to IMD and 125 knots (145 mph) according to JTWC. Its motion is slowing down east of Omen and is expected to turn southwestward soon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:13, October 29, 2019 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr (2nd time)
Down to ESCS intensity, 115 knots (130 mph) and 943 mbar according to the IMD and 105 knots (120 mph) according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:32, October 29, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr (2nd time)
Weakened to a VSCS, 85 knots (100 mph)/968 mbar (IMD) and 100 knots (115 mph) (JTWC). It's now starting the southwestward turn and could make landfall as far as Somalia before dissipating. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:50, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Kyarr (2nd time)
Weakened further to a SCS and expected to begin accelerating towards Somalia. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:46, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Getting weaker and should be down to a Cyclonic Storm pretty soon. Now 50 knots (60 mph)/988 mbar according to IMD and only 40 knots (45 mph) according to JTWC. Weakening should be more gradual from here on out. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  04:20, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Kyarr (2nd time)
Downgraded to a Cyclonic Storm, currently 35 knots (40 mph) according to IMD and JTWC with a 996 mbar pressure. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  16:03, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression Kyarr
Down further to a deep depression, 30 knots (35 mph)/996 mbar (IMD). JTWC has issued their final warning. At this rate it won't make it to Somalia still as a TC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  21:22, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Depression Kyarr
Almost dead...25 knots (30 mph) and 1002 mbars. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:30, November 1, 2019 (UTC)

98B.INVEST
Another invest has appeared on Tropical Tidbits, this one is near the coast of India. IMD's outlook says this has a "low" chance for 96-120 hours. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:07, October 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Coded yellow on JTWC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:29, October 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like JTWC has dropped it. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:08, October 24, 2019 (UTC)

99B.INVEST
This has appeared on Tidbits to the east of Sri Lanka, and will affect that country and parts of southern India before emerging into the Arabian Sea. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:11, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * The GFS has been making this into a big storm consistently for some time now. -- Java Hurricane  02:43, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Coded yellow on JTWC currently. We'll see what this one manages to do. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:24, October 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to code orange. Now marked as a low pressure area likely to concentrate to a depression on IMD's outlook. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:15, October 29, 2019 (UTC)

Depression 05A
This is 05A, but since it will be moving over the outflow and upwelled water from Kyarr, it probably won't get as strong as Kyarr did down the road. Still might become a cat 1-2 (by the JTWC) though, and it would be named "Maha" if so. Ryan1000 09:45, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Maha
Upgraded. An ESCS and C3-equivalent looks like a distinct possibility in the long run, although the forecasts fall short of those milestones for now. Currently 45 knots (50 mph) according to JTWC. According to IMD, it's currently 65 kmph (40 mph) and 998 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:27, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 knots (50 mph)/996 mbars according to IMD and 50 knots (60 mph) according to JTWC. Should be upgraded to a SCS overnight. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  04:22, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Maha
Upped to a SCS, 55 knots (65 mph)/994 mbar according to IMD and 60 knots (70 mph) according to JTWC as it continues to parallel the west coast of India. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  16:06, October 31, 2019 (UTC)