Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future start
Coming in slightly more than one month :D.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Betting pools
Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
This will probably become Chantal in the next few days.Allanjeffs 11:58, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

Currently, this invest is at 30%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:45, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one is the one that's worth watching. Chantal-to be is forecast to head west-northwest into the Caribbean and slowly but surely strengthen along the way. This is very ominous for this time of year. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 01:02, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, it seems as if the GFS seems to like the wave behind 95L more. I still think this wave is one of the most big ones we have seen so far this year. Definitely could get a tropical depression or storm out of this if it slows down and closes off a circulation. Simlover123    02:41, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Should be Chantal or td 3 tomorrow if organization persist.Allanjeffs 09:40, July 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now 40%. Still forecast to move through the Caribbean and gradually strengthen, but according to some of the reliable models, there will be some shear in the Eastern Caribbean at the time it arrives, so it might not be much until it hits the Central/Western Caribbean. It's early in the season to see powerful, Cape-Verde storms, but according to some seasons (1996, 2005, 2008), it's not impossible in early July. Ryan1000 13:43, July 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * If 95L develops into Chantal the Gfs is showing another system potentially Dorian affecting Florida as a strong system.Allanjeffs 17:21, July 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * 60% the EPAC already has it fun its time for the atlantic to make a comeback.:PAllanjeffs 17:24, July 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * It will go straight to ts as winds are now 35knots.

AL, 95, 2013070718,, BEST, 0, 98N, 438W, 35, 1008, WV, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Allanjeffs 18:29, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * CMON CHANTAL BRO she is currently at a 60% chance of forming right off the coast of Western Africa. This is fresh from the NHC: A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF

THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 25 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION... AND RECENT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME...WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Judging from that shape, Chantal would probably become no more than a weakish Category 1 hurricane, and I am somewhat expecting a re-Rafael of 2012, but the only difference is that it is... in summer and not autumn, and it happens almost one year later, and this is a girl hurricane not a boy hurricane. Chantal is probably going to have an expected formation date of about July 10. Sooner or later, Dozza Gray might be here next week if conditions are like this! Guys, what do you think?



(P.S. Andy Murray won Wimbledon. He made history! :D)  Rara Hooves 19:40, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

If NHC named Ana and not this, I'll be very surprised. As far as organization goes, this has much more defined structural features compared to Ana at peak intensity. Also, if it forms this far south, there isn't enough rotational velocity supported by the Coriolis force. It will have to get pulled by the westerlies before strengthening significantly. This could pull of an Arthur 90'. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:04, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * From what I gather this is an unusually strong tropical wave for this time of year and in this location (there is also another potent wave coming off the coast of Africa). The ATCF files are already saying that this has tropical storm winds, so this would most likely skip TD status once classified. All the models I've looked at so far have this striking at least parts of the Greater Antilles and the US, though the BAMD and the AEMI are quite ambiguous with their track forecasts. It looks like the upper-end intensity is a strong Category 1 in five days, though most of the models have this peaking as a moderate tropical storm in three or so days, by which time the storm should be at about 65W. The TAFB model has this making landfall on the DR by 1200 UTC on Wednesday.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:11, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * 95L will enter the Caribbean there is no doubt of that but the place it goes will depend its strength many are showing a landfall in Haiti and DR.Allanjeffs 22:43, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

The NHC has bumped this invest up to 70%. Currently, all the computer models predict 95L will affect the Leeward Islands. I believe this invest will follow a path similar to Hurricane Dennis of 2005, and its maximum intensity will be similar to 2005's Hurricane Cindy. I doubt this system will become a major hurricane, although I think conditions will be ideal for a minimal hurricane. Also, CS, gale-force winds have been reported in the center, meaning if 95L becomes tropical, it will go straight to tropical storm intensity. And Liz, Rafael was steered very early in its development northwards because of a trough. There will likely be no trough to force 95L northward, and none of the computer models currently forecasting the invest predict such an early northward turn in the invest's projected path. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three
Contrary to the ASCAT passes we now have a renumbered tropical depression per ATCF.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:16, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

I know they went with td they should have gone with ts.Allanjeffs 02:20, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

AL, 03, 2013070800,, BEST, 0, 97N, 461W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, CHANTAL, M  she is here. the third of the season.Allanjeffs 02:32, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chantal
The third of the season.Allanjeffs 02:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * With AJ's posting, it would appear that the NHC has corrected (I use that term really loosely) the ATCF entry, and it has now been classified as a tropical storm.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:41, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not seeing anything on the NHC website, maybe we should wait on this? --HurricaneMaker99 02:55, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * One minute later...advisory comes out. Spoke too soon, HM. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:57, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I was about to say that info was starting to show up. TS Warning up for St. Lucia, Dominica, and Barbados, TS Watch in effect for St. Vincent. Hello Chantal! --HurricaneMaker99 02:59, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Speedy little bugger too! Rocketing off to the west at 26 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 03:03, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * mhm that means that even with that foward speed tc can develop.The NHC just portray the track I was thinking.btw the ATCF are correct 99% of the time specially with systems close to land.Allanjeffs 03:12, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, that was fast! I did not expect Chantal to come by this soon. Anyway, the system is forecast to interact with the Greater Antilles landmasses in a few days. Also, because of Chantal's fast movement, I do not expect a very intense system yet, probably only as intense as 2011's Tropical Storm Emily. Regardless, the Leewards will take a direct hit from this storm. Chantal's current intensity is 35-kts/1007 mbar. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:35, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I doubt I believe right now is a 45 or 50 mph storm she has a chance of reaching hurricane intensity before hitting DR.Btw in a week we will probably see Dorian and it looks like conditions will be more favorable for him.Allanjeffs 11:17, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Since the last advisory, Chantal has intensified slightly. Also, tropical storm watches are in effect for Puerto Rico as well. Impactwise, Chantal should bring gusty winds, precipitation measurements of 2 to 4 inches, and a 1 to 3 foot storm surge to the Lesser Antilles. The system is forecasted to attain 60-kt winds once in the Caribbean Sea. Although hurricane status is possible, I think land interaction with the Greater Antilles will hinder any guarantee of hurricane intensity for Chantal. After the Greaters, Chantal is predicted to weaken over the Bahamas. If, by chance, the system does reach the United States, I believe it will be nothing more than a tropical depression. Overall, Chantal should remain a weak system and not cause any major impact, unless it pulls a Tomas. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

As nightfall begins on Chantal looks like it is organizing back a little bit after a drawback in convection earlier today. It is moving into more northerly latitudes, so the tradewinds are starting to spread the storm out. We'll see how it survives in the tradewinds as it approaches the Lessers.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:54, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Maybe Chantal won't end up as threatening as I first thought it would be, if it runs itself over Hispaniola, this won't be any worse than Emily of 2011. It'll have to slow down if it wants to become something in the Caribbean, not that that's typical for storms in early-mid July anyways. Not forecast to get stronger than a TS, due to her rapid movement. Ryan1000 18:17, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Oh, and one more thing -- If you see Dr. Jeff Master's latest blog post, he mentioned a quote from Dr. Gray of CSU saying that seven of the most active seasons since record-keeping in 1950 had early-season activity in the Central Atlantic from tropical waves off of Africa. Those seasons were 1966, 1969, 1995, 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2008. All of those seasons turned out to be very active and destructive seasons overall, and he mentioned that the formation of Chantal in the Central Atlantic on July 8 -- over a month earlier than the typical August 13 for the season's third named storm -- means that conditions in the central, Main Development Region of the Atlantic are already very favorable for tropical cyclone development. There could be a lot of powerful, long-lasting, and potentially life-threatening, Cape Verde-type hurricanes in the Central Atlantic this year for that very reason. We're in for a helluva ride, and Chantal is merely the beginning of what's to come. Ryan1000 18:35, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Sup dudes. Fresh from the Weather Channel:
 * "Tropical Storm Chantal formed in the tropical Atlantic Ocean late Sunday night (Eastern U.S. time) and is racing west toward the Lesser Antilles.

The system developed as a strong tropical wave with tropical storm force winds before finally developing a closed circulation late Sunday night, thus bypassing the tropical depression phase and becoming Tropical Storm Chantal straightaway.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for Barbados, Dominica, Saint Lucia, Martinique and Guadeloupe. A tropical storm watch has now been issued for Puerto Rico, and continues in effect for Saint Vincent. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Windward Islands by early Tuesday and may affect parts of Puerto Rico late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

After crossing the Lesser Antilles, Chantal is expected to affect portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba (see the latest projected path map below).

Residents in the mainland U.S. will have to pay attention to this system. The current forecast takes the center of Chantal over the Bahamas Friday into early Saturday, but given the margin of error in the forecast, parts of Florida could be affected as well at the end of the workweek."

Oh dear. I also have a map of an update of this terrifying storm:

In my opinion, I see this Chantal becoming a Category 1 at the max. Remember, it's only July, and the worst storms usually occur from August - October. (The storms that are most likely to be the worst are from Humberto - Sebastian.)

 Rara Hooves 19:37, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * I honestly don't expect Chantal to become more than a C1 either, unless it misses Hispaniola to the south. If it does, then we could have a potentially dangerous hurricane approaching the GOM by Friday/Saturday. And behind Chantal we have another African wave which could become Dorian in 3-4 days as well. Ryan1000 22:59, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Chantal is the shit! A moderate tropical storm with 45kt winds yet recon only hint extrapolated surface pressure of 1010mb. Flight level winds aren't exactly accurate either but heck, 1010mb! - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  01:02, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Chantal is strengthening even with all factors against it.She might even reach hurricane status before hitting Hispañola btw my friend prepare for Dorian is leaving Africa right now most models show this becoming a formidable hurricane probably a major.Allanjeffs 01:31, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Currently, Chantal is leveling off in terms of intensity. However, radar data from Barbados indicates poor development to its north. Also, tropical storm watches are now in effect for the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas. And I am still not rooting Chantal will become a hurricane. The storm is not moving slow enough to allow significant development, but hurricane status is not out of the question. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:46, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

It may have been steadily strengthening but it's definitely become quite disorganized in the past few hours. Save a large convective burst, convection had been stalling and had been quite warm. As such the center of Chantal has raced westward ahead of the center and is near landfall or going to slip past Martinique, roughly 50-100 miles ahead of the supposed CDO.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:42, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Actually even though she looks horrible she is strengthening she might become a cat 1 before a landfall in Hispañola.Allanjeffs 13:52, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Eh.... I'm not too sure about that. Recon recorded estimated SFMR surface winds of 68 kt (Category 1 hurricane) but these occurred right off land in Martinique and there are numerous flagged observations there. Also there's a station in Le Lamentein which will give a really good indication on the strength of Chantal. Currently it's giving 35 mph winds and 1011 pressure, which is what we were expecting. Also the eyewall, or at least the storms surrounding the CoC are ready to slam into the station.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:58, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Upto 60 and a hurricane watch issue to DR.Allanjeffs 15:07, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * And moving even faster now, too: 29 mph! "I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING AT THAT SPEED." -Forecaster Avila. --HurricaneMaker99 15:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haha, I love it when NHC makes quotes like that. Chantal looks like she'll run herself over Hispaniola by tomorrow, but most of the models take her surviving Hispaniola and paralleling the eastern seaboard of the U.S. as a tropical storm. Some of the models take Chantal to becoming a hurricane as it heads towards the Carolinas in 4-5 days time, but NHC is really conservative and makes it only a minor TS after leaving Hispaniola. I don't blame them knowing how small the circulation is; however Chantal isn't guranteed to die like Emily did in 2011. Ryan1000 15:49, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Chantal continues to impress me, and despite the atypical appearance on satellite imagery, continues to strengthen based on recon and radar data. Perhaps the tradewinds are helping wrap Chantal up, but since it's now embedded in the tradewind flow I'm not sure how that would work.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:56, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

It's moving too fast to be heavily sheared by the tradewinds, so that might help it organize into a strong TS or hurricane before it runs itself over Hispaniola and then heads for the U.S. east coast. Currently I'm more concerned with Soulik in WPac, but I'm still keeping a wary eye on Chantal. Ryan1000 16:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Currently, Chantal is packing winds of 60 kts (65 mph), but it's pressure is only 1006 mbar. It's moving rapidly into the Eastern Caribbean and toward Hispaniola. St. Lucia has discontinued the tropical storm warning for the nation. However, I am still not predicting a hurricane, and I am watching Soulik more closely. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:38, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * NHC said in their intensity probability forecast that Chantal only has a 29% chance of becoming a hurricane before it hits Hispaniola tomorrow afternoon. After Chantal quickly runs over Hispaniola, the trough over the southeast will pull it further northwest, but slow it down to 20 mph, and 10 mph a day later. Meanwhile, wind shear will also decrease, so Chantal has a chance to restrengthen during that time, possibly becoming a hurricane, before High Pressure builds in and forces it onshore Florida or somewhere else in the southeast by Sunday or Monday next week. Ryan1000 20:56, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * We'll have to wait and see where Chantal positions herself to see where the ridging will take it. There are still a few models pinning for just a westward track into the western Carib, but I doubt that'll verify. Also, I'd like to add that for a 65 mph tropical storm, the satellite imagery is laughable - looks like a north-south tropical wave axis with convection propogating westward.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 21:12, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm not surprised Chantal isn't well organized for how decent her winds are, especially since it's still blazing west at 26 mph. She'll be running over Hispaniola pretty soon. The Euro model doesn't see Chantal surviving the island, while the GFS barely keeps her alive. NHC is more generous than them, keeping her a moderate TS after crossing Hispaniola, but not changing much from 45 knots after crossing the island. She could intensify after crossing Hispaniola, but I think Chantal's circulation will be so severely damaged after she crosses the island that she likely won't get to hurricane strength, let alone 60 mph. Ryan1000 23:42, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Winds down to 50 kt, pressure up to 1009 mbar, and check out this excerpt from the latest NHC discussion (emphasis mine): "THE PLANE HAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLING AN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...AIR SPACE RESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHER SOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS." We could be talking about a system that's nothing more than an exceptionally vigorous tropical wave right now. --HurricaneMaker99 03:05, July 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Wow, Chantal collapsed overnight. I was expecting it to get to 70 mph or so, but now it looks like it'll miss the Dominican Republic to the south and make landfall in southern Haiti instead. I'm also surprised NHC keeps it a depression all the way through. I expect Chantal to die sometime along the way, then possibly regenerate. Ryan1000 11:21, July 10, 2013 (UTC)

Chantal is weakening. Currently, it is at 40 knots/1011 mbar. I believe this storm is actually a tropical wave, because I have never seen a 1011 mbar tropical system ever, and its satellite image presentation is HORRIBLE. In a way, Chantal is like a crossover of 2011's Emily and Maria (The NHC also debated Maria was not tropical at one point in its lifetime, and Maria was downgraded in post-season analysis.). Also, Haiti and Cuba are expected to take a hit from the system, and from there, Chantal is forecast to graze the Florida Peninsula's Atlantic coast and hit near Savannah, Georgia (Any thoughts on 1979's Hurricane David?). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:03, July 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * A much watered-down version of him, yes. Ryan1000 12:15, July 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Chantal has sucumb to the trade winds and its fast motion.Allanjeffs 13:03, July 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * The recon plane found that Chantal is still alive, somehow. Chantal is now forecast to strike Florida from the south (if it even survives that far!) and dissipate offshore Georgia. --HurricaneMaker99 15:08, July 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * She impress me even with all of the above plus wind shear,dry air and close to land she continues to survive she is unreal.Allanjeffs 16:18, July 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Chantal is heading much farther west than earlier anticipated, due to her weak, disorganized nature and continued rapid movement to the west. It'll probrably head near (or through) Jamacia, hit western Cuba, then move over western Florida, all the time as a tropical storm. Reminds me a bit of Fay in 2008, but forming a little further east earlier in the season, and I doubt Chantal will make as many landfalls as Fay did. Ryan1000 19:50, July 10, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Chantal
She dived head first.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:51, July 10, 2013 (UTC)

I knew this would happen. Chantal's degenerated. However, the threat to Cuba and Hispaniola is not over yet. They got something coming... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:01, July 10, 2013 (UTC)

Will she regenerate maybe maybe not but she is going to enter the gulf maybe there she could.Allanjeffs 21:35, July 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Until and unless Chantal regenerates, I'm just gonna regard her as a 2011-style failure. At least the NHC did a somewhat better job of predicting such beforehand than they did during Emily. --HurricaneMaker99 21:51, July 10, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ugh, gotta agree. What was meant to be a good storm turned out to be a flop. Ugh. I TOTALLY thought that Chantal would become a Category 1 or something. Hopefully Dozza Gray will be better than this. (At least this hurricane's name is cool!)  Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 22:22, July 10, 2013 (UTC)CHANTAL_MEME.jpg


 * Personally I was hoping that Chantal could become a badass 1000-mbar minimal hurricane along the lines of 2003's Danny :P --HurricaneMaker99 00:15, July 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Chantal is down, but not out. I think she'll regenerate later on as a TS, but for now it'll do nothing other than bring some rain to Hispaniola, Jamacia, and parts of southern Cuba. I was surprised Chantal ended up dying in the Caribbean; I honestly was expecting more of this storm. Emily's dissipation off of Hispaniola didn't surprise me in the slightest. If she does come back, I don't really expect more than 50-55 mph. Ryan1000 01:33, July 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Remnants are at 20% on the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 14:28, July 11, 2013 (UTC)

Chantal might not be dead just yet!!! Conditions are becoming more favorable for development, and its remnants are currently at 30%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:10, July 11, 2013 (UTC)

Yeah she is not out and less not forget that is her northern part we should watch the south part to.Allanjeffs 19:42, July 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * This kinda reminds me of Helene last year. Very unpredictable... but if this system becomes a depression, will it be called Chantal or Dorian? Just wondering...  Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 22:55, July 11, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, if this system regenerates and keeps a closed circulation, as was the case with 2011's Emily, Maria, and Ophelia, it will be renamed Chantal. However, if the system regenerates, but the initial circulation dissipates and a new area of convection forms in the general vicinity, the system would be named Dorian. Also, if this system, by some freak occurence, crosses Mexico, degenerates over land, and a new low pressure area associated with the remnants form in the Pacific, it would be named Flossie. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:04, July 11, 2013 (UTC)

The remains of Chantal remain at 30%, but it's getting more organized. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:12, July 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'd say Chantal will become tropical again in 36 hours, probably sometime tomorrow. Most models take this northward towards Georgia/the Carolinas, but none make it stronger than a moderate tropical storm on the way. Ryan1000 01:35, July 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. Re-development is becoming less and less likely. --HurricaneMaker99 13:07, July 12, 2013 (UTC)

I believe Chantal is not going to pull an Emily (2011), instead it will just die over the Florida Peninsula. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:35, July 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Maybe Chantal won't come back to us after all. I didn't want to call Chantal a fail, but it looks like it is. No major impacts were recorded in Hispaniola or the other Caribbean Islands, and it's unlikely there will be anything else on the U.S. East Coast worth mentioning from her remnants. Ryan1000 14:34, July 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * up to 20% and she is really becoming better organized it looks like a surface low is trying to form.She is not out fellas.Allanjeffs 18:41, July 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * NHC says any regeneration of Chantal is highly unlikely due to interaction with wind shear from the front directly north of it. That will likely hinder any hopes of Chantal regenerating. I'm not ruling it out completely, but I don't personally expect Chantal to come back as of now. Ryan1000 20:45, July 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Chantal's remnants are still at 20%. However, its organization is getting disorganized, and any significant development is unlikely at this point in time. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:35, July 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 10% again. Probably won't regenerate by now. Ryan1000 13:35, July 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * And now down to near 0%. Chantal is essentially dead. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:18, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * And now it's off the TWO, meaning curtains for Chantal for good. --HurricaneMaker99 10:07, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Bahamas
Upper-level low feature over the Bahamas given a 0% by the National Hurricane Center, and is expected to move westward through southern Florida/Florida Straits. Since there's the strong winds in the lower levels I think this system won't develop, and will stay a mid-to upper-level feature.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:56, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this is just a random area of thunderstorms that won't do more than bring some rain to parts of Florida. I'd be stunned if this becomes Dorian. Ryan1000 18:18, July 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 15:17, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Aoi:West of Florida
Random 10% area west of Chantal.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  05:39, July 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one has the potential to develop a non-tropical circulation according to NHC, but I think it's too close to land to become named, let alone numbered. It'll have to remain offshore for a while for it to develop, though it's expected to move north pretty soon. Ryan1000 13:35, July 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * I highly doubt this AOI will become anything at all. It will just give some rain to Florida and do nothing more than that. Unless this system is as eager to develop as was 2011's Tropical Depression Twelve-E and Tropical Storm Jose, again, we will not see anything from this AOI. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:38, July 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 10:06, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Rescently popped up. Not on the TWO yet, but it's in the western GOM off of Mexico. Not forecast to do much anyways. Ryan1000 20:35, July 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * This isn't a real invest; it's a test product for transitioning to a new supercomputer. See the NHC's Facebook post. --HurricaneMaker99 01:45, July 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Ah crap. Didn't catch that, it didn't look half-bad either. Well, at least 08W in WPac is... Ryan1000 04:33, July 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Aren't test invests supposed to have the leading number of 8 or 7? - HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:33, July 17, 2013 (UTC)