Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

November
This season is almost about to close. But we still have one month left before the end of the season (expect December). Formation of storms are becoming less likely as, you know.  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 00:00, November 1, 2017 (UTC) 


 * Finally. What has been a catastrophic and horrible season is coming to a close. We will probably see Rina's formation this month and I believe we could go up to Sean by December 31, tying 2011's named storms (not counting unnamed TS). Hoping for Tammy and beyond would be pushing it, unless the Atlantic decides to pull off a 2005 November/post-season. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:44, November 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * At long last, this year's activity appears to be winding down. Given that this season is now by far the costliest tropical cyclone season on record, I think the Atlantic's finally had enough of churning out catastrophes. At most, I think we'll get one or two more tropical storms in the later part of this month, or maybe one post-season storm. Hopefully, no more damage or loss of life will occur due to an Atlantic tropical cyclone this year. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:28, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * We have a clean TWO.Is the season actually (as well as officially) over?12.144.5.2 05:17, November 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maybe, if the lull continues throughout the rest of the season. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:45, November 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, the GFS is picking up on something in the Western Caribbean in about 300+ hours. Nothing's for certain at this time frame though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:20, November 3, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: 1000 miles east of Bermuda
0/20. Only on the 5-day outlook. Rina? Fr3d (talk) 18:31, November 3, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements.

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:02, September 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 2% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 15% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes, but overshadowed by Harvey.
 * Don - 10% - May have a slight chance of being retired for political reasons, but I wouldn't count on it, so I will keep my estimate conservative.
 * Emily - 0.01% - Very minor impact.
 * Franklin - 5% - Damage total unknown, but probably minor and caused no deaths.
 * Gert - 1% - Caused two deaths due to rip currents, but that is it.
 * Harvey - 100% - Record flooding in Texas, an obvious retirement candidate.
 * Irma - 100% - Another obvious retirement candidate due to damage in the Caribbean.
 * Katia - 8% - Probably caused similar damage to Franklin, but caused two deaths.
 * Jose - 2% - Only minor damage in the Caribbean and East Coast.
 * Lee - 0% - Regenerated and currently active, but still not expected to affect land.
 * Maria - 100% - Caused major damage in Dominica and Puerto Rico.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, 0.01% , 1% , 5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , 25% , 30% , 35% , 40% , 45% , 50% , 55% , 60% , 65% , 70% , 75% , 80% , 85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#889">0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Franklin miraculously caused no fatalities in Mexico. There is almost no chance of retirement. The only damage from Franklin was minimal.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#449">5% - Two people drowned from rip currents in the United States, which is very sad. Gert defied all of the forecasts, becoming not a Category 1 hurricane, but a Category 2 hurricane! I thought that Gert wouldn't be any stronger than a strong TS, but I was very wrong. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#500">100% - I really have no words about how bad this storm was. Harvey jumped off a cliff, and could bring Irma with him. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 17:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff6060">Irma : <font color="#500">100% - After wiping out Barbuda and St. Martin, Irma is most likely going to go after this year. T  G  2 0 1 7 19:47, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jose : <font color="#889">0.01% - Almost hit the Northern Leeward Islands. That would have been a mess.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Katia : <font color="#669">1% - Struck Mexico at the same time as a strong earthquake. This gives Katia a slightly higher chance than Franklin.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Lee : 0% - Lee redeemed himself. But because he was a fish, he's coming back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria : <font color="#500">100% - Not a chance she will stay for 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 23:54, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nate : <font color="#C00">95% - It was not as bad in the US as what happened in Costa Rica. Nate was worse than Otto in Costa Rica. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:10, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Ophelia : <font color="#F20">85% - If Ophelia had happened last year, this storm would've had less of a chance to be retired, since its name would have not been retained for the windstorm when it hit Ireland. However, because this storm retained its name when it hit Ireland, they could request the name Ophelia to be retired. It is very likely they could because an estimated $1.8 billion in damages has been done from Ophelia, making Ophelia as costly as the Great Storm of 1987. Ophelia has a 15% chance of staying due to the storm not being damaging enough, which is very unlikely when this storm was being compared to the worst windstorms that have hit the British Isles. My best bet is that Ophelia will not be on the lists after this season.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Philippe : <font color="#889">0.01% - Haven't used that color since Emily... Thanks, Philippe. What a waste of a name. T  G  21:53, October 29, 2017 (UTC)

T G  2 0 1 7 15:56, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Retired (80-100%): Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, Ophelia
 * Possibly Retired (50-79%): None
 * Notable mentions (20-49%): Cindy, Don
 * Final retirements: Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, Ophelia
 * Replacements: Hank, Ivy, Minerva, Noah, Olive

Retirements from Steve
Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.
 * Retirements, etc.: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Possibly Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: Lists the names of every potential storm that could form from here on out and the chances that they may form by the end of the season.
 * Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly. Retirements, etc.=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#086">B+ - It was fantastic for forming in April, but being only a moderate TS means it can't receive higher than a B+.
 * <font color="#0CF">Bret : <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#F00">F  - Existed in an unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect). The location gives Bret a tiny retirement chance and improves the grade a bit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#F50">D - The region it struck has been through much worse, and it has been very overshadowed by Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">Z - Failed to redeem itself after 2011, but 50 mph is enough to prevent it from getting my worst grade. The 20% is for the unlikely chance that just because Donald Trump is president, it could get the "Adolph, Israel, and Isis" treatment.
 * <font color="#0CF">Emily : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#8F0">C+  - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Damage totals are unknown and there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Damage could have been a bit extensive, however.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#086">B+  - Got stronger than what initial forecasts called for. 2 saddening indirect deaths from rip currents is nowhere near enough for the name to be considered for retirement.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#0F0">B- - This will be retired. A cataclysmic flooding nightmare for Texas, and the costliest storm in U.S. history! Totally beats up Katrina's previous record. The NHC has to be taking some weird drug if they don't retire this. (There is an explanation for why Harvey's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
 * <font color="#900">Irma : <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#0B3">B - A catastrophic beast that raged through the Caribbean, causing a trail of devastation along the way. Florida was impacted as well, as it was very destructive there. This was the most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. There is no logical reason why this won't be retired. (There is an explanation for why Irma's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jose : <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#00F">A+ - It was very long-lasting and briefly threatened the Lesser Antilles. A total of 70 advisories were issued (the most since Nadine '12), and it almost became a C5 at one point. One indirect death occurred due to rip currents off of New Jersey. Overall, Jose caused only minimal damage.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Katia : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0F0">B- - 3 deaths give this a higher retirement chance than Franklin. Doesn't appear that there was much damage though.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Lee : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#00A">A++ - An amazing storm that began as a weak TS. After its initial dissipation, we all wrote this off as a pathetic fail. Well, guess what: It later regenerates and rapidly intensifies to an epic winning C3! And this was all done while out to sea. The Atlantic win of the year! Lee was also a tiny hurricane and rapid intensification could have been kinda expected due to its size, which is why it did not get "A+++(x∞)". If it reached C4 strength or higher, it would have received that grade for sure.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria : <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#0B3">B - Completely devastated Dominica after becoming the first C5 on record to make landfall there. Puerto Rico was also sent into a humanitarian crisis after Maria made landfall there as a powerful and dangerous C4. Other islands around the region were severely impacted as well. North Carolina was briefly threatened in Maria's later life, with rip currents all along the east coast. This b**** will not be returning in 2023. (There is an explanation for why Maria's grade is so low in the "Other Info" section)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nate : <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#FB0">C- - The Gulf Coast kind of dodged a bullet here, but it still caused Isaac '12-like damages. Had it not moved into Central America, it would've been another dangerous monster. The retirement chance is high because Central America has suffered 43 deaths from Nate. That's a higher death toll than Otto last year, which was retired. Its damage is also similar to Otto in Costa Rica. But there's also a slight chance that it will stay because it was not nearly as powerful as Otto when it struck, and it has been overshadowed by the big three monsters this season.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Ophelia : <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#03B">A - What was a harmless fishspinner and the easternmost major hurricane on record became the worst windstorm since 1987 for the British Isles after extratropical transition. Retirement is very possible, but it's not certain because 1.) I've never heard of a storm being retired for European impacts alone, and 2.) it was not tropical when striking the British Isles.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Philippe : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#F00">F - A strange fast-moving storm that has only caused minimal damage, so this won't be retired. Kind of a relief from the previous very devastating storms. However, it's F because it was weak and broke the hurricane streak. If Philippe became a hurricane, we would have broken the tie with 1878, 1886, and 1893 to claim the all-time streak record (but that didn't happen).

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#0CF">TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



In summary...= Certainly Retired: Harvey, Irma, Maria

Likely Retired: Nate, Ophelia

Possibly Retired: None

Probably Not Retired: Cindy, Don, Franklin, Katia

Not Retired: Arlene, Bret, Emily, Gert, Jose, Lee

Projected retirement chances for currently active storms (could always change as time goes on):


 * No storms are currently active

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-85%
 * "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
 * "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
 * "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Possibly Retired, Likely Retired, and Certainly Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.

Harvey (Certainly Retired):
 * Henley
 * Harper
 * Harris(on)
 * Hyacinth
 * Harold
 * Herbert
 * Hampton
 * Harley
 * Hyde
 * Hilton

Irma (Certainly Retired):
 * Ivy
 * Ina
 * Izzy
 * Imogen
 * Indira
 * Isla
 * Ilse
 * Irina
 * Inga
 * Isa

Maria (Certainly Retired):
 * Maggie
 * Martha
 * Minerva
 * Morgan
 * Molly
 * Melanie
 * Madison
 * Meg(h)an
 * Matilda
 * Monica

Nate (Likely Retired):
 * Noah
 * Norris
 * Nolan
 * Nick
 * Neil
 * Nelson
 * Nico
 * Nigel
 * Norton
 * Niles

Ophelia (Likely Retired):
 * Olive
 * Octavia
 * Oriana
 * Oprah
 * Olympia
 * Oriel
 * Odessa
 * Orla
 * Orpha
 * Oakley

Predicted final replacements announced in spring 2018: Henley, Ivy, Morgan, Niles, Olympia.

How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * Chances that Rina will be used: <font color="#F70">70% - The season is coming to a close, but we could still see another storm by November 30, or a post-season surprise.
 * Chances that Sean will be used: <font color="#0F0">40% - There's a slight chance that this year could match 2011, but it's not very likely.
 * Chances that Tammy will be used: <font color="#0BF">15% - I doubt we will go this far, since the dying Atlantic has only limited time left for either a November or post-season storm to develop.
 * Chances that Vince will be used: <font color="#11E">2.5% - Going this far would require a miracle explosion in November or post-season, like what happened in 2005.
 * Chances that Whitney will be used: <font color="#55B">0.1% - Nope, we are not exhausting the naming list this year.
 * Chances that Alpha will be used: <font color="#66A">0.00001% - Let me do a bet. If the Atlantic gets a Greek named storm (for real), I win a million dollars.
 * Chances that Beta or anything beyond will be used: <font color="#779">~0% - I would bet on winning the lottery over the Atlantic getting this far down.



Other Info= ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:27, July 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
 * This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The colors for the 40-45 mph TS and the ≥185 mph C5 are made up and not part of the official color classification. The "65-70 mph TS" color is the same as the "Severe Tropical Storm" color used in basins such as the WPac.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * EXPLAINS HARVEY, IRMA, AND MARIA: Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.
 * I see you changed almost everything on your retirements. I'd say, this is better than before. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:02, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh, thanks! I changed my predictions to be more in-depth and realistic. Of course, new intensity colors were added and "F-" is now "Z". ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:03, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * A little odd that the very things that earn 100% get marked down in the letter grades.12.144.5.2 14:23, September 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * I did it for a reason. Storms that kill people and are very devastating don't deserve the highest grades. For example: if I gave Irma my highest possible grade or even anything close to it, it might seem insensitive to victims of Irma, for anyone who had friends/family affected, etc. It just seems wrong to give storms like Irma their highest possible grade, because in my opinion, it feels similar to cheering on a storm that is about to devastate a city. So for the top costliest hurricanes on record or for the top deadliest, a maximum of a 2-letter reduction is necessary. Harvey and Irma both got the maximum reduction due to their extreme damages. And to clarify, "2-letter" reductions don't apply to storms that would otherwise get at least A++. The distance between A++ and B- is the same as A+ to C+, A to C, etc. So what appears to be less than a 2 letter drop is actually the same amount of reduction. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * So what is the point of the grade?...killing people is a reason storms get retired.12.144.5.2 06:21, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I know that. I grade every named storm that forms, even the destructive ones. Grades and retirement chances have absolutely no association, in fact the opposite. The lower the retirement chance, the higher the grade will be unless it is a failure TS. Weak TS's almost always get a very low grade because they have not performed well at all (but exceptions could be made if they formed at a very unusual time or location, or surprised forecasters). Grades are meant to be for how well a storm performed, taking into account how well it defied forecasts (or didn't), or how strong it became (or lack of strength). They also take into account unusual locations, unusual time of year and longevity. Destruction and deaths factors in just because the devastating ones are monsters that strike fear into everyone, are infamous and hateful. The point is that every storm deserves a grade, but I can't give the really devastating ones the highest grades due to how insensitive it could appear to victims and those who had friends/family affected. These devastating storms are universally hated as well - who would give such a vengeful monster an A++? The highest grade that the most devastating storms ever (like Katrina, Harvey, Irma, Sandy, or Haiyan) could receive is "B". That is probably one the highest grades possible that doesn't appear insensitive. On the other hand, Genevieve '14 would receive "A+++(x∞)" for being a great fighter, lasting so long, intensifying to a C5 much to everybody's surprise and not harming anyone. I hope you understand what I mean in my comments above, because I don't want to argue about this anymore. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:27, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Steve, if you'd like, you could make a separate tab for your personal grade of each storm and another tab solely for their chances of being retired, since you don't correlate the two. Ryan1000 19:44, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nah, I'm fine with keeping it the way it is. I don't want to have too many tabs. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:05, October 3, 2017 (UTC)

68's Prediction of Retirements + Grades
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , 7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#330000">99% , 100%,  <font color="#0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A ) 

(Category colors: <font color="#0CF">TD/PTC, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z )

50% or more=italics

Chance of being used: <p style="text-align: center;">Retirement Summary

<p style="text-align: center;">Definitely Retired (>95%): Harvey, Irma, Maria

<p style="text-align: center;">Most Likely Retired (70-90%): Nate

<p style="text-align: center;">Likely Retired (45-65%): Ophelia

<p style="text-align: center;">Likely Not Retired (25-40%): None

<p style="text-align: center;">Most Likely Not Retired (5-20%): Cindy, Don, Katia

<p style="text-align: center;">Definitely Not Retired (<5%): Arlene, Bret, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Lee, Philippe That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

(Last updated by: --68.106.0.77 14:30, November 3, 2017 (UTC))

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * UPDATE: Obviously Harvey's going. Irma looks likely to be retired as well. We'll see what happens. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:40, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022, early surprises.
 * Cindy - 5% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 4% - 0.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.
 * Emily - 0.5% - Surprisingly formed, but sorry it's a no. You're not going anywhere, though there was some minor impacts in Florida. You'll be back in 2023, Emily.
 * Franklin - 7% - Caused some damage, but Mexico has seen worse. In addition, there was not a single fatality from this storm, so I'm sure Franklin won't be retired.
 * Gert - 0.1% - That .1% is for being an incredible fishspinner, but to be honest Gert will return in 2023.
 * Harvey - 100% - Now this is the name we will (most likely) not see in 2023. Thought to be a flop, but became a monstrous Category 4 after regenerating and made landfall in Texas at peak intensity. This may be one for the books. This is a storm that looks like a bad combination of Allison, Celia and Carla. At least 3 deaths have been reported so far, and the damage is now estimated to cost $2 billion. I just hope this won't be Texas's Sandy or Katrina, or a worse repeat of Ike. Never mind. This will surely go.
 * Irma - 100% - see Harvey. The damage in Florida and the Leeward Islands is more than enough. It is certain that she won't be back in 2023.
 * Jose - 3% - While it became a threat and later on became the longest-lived storm since Nadine, it minimal impacts. There was one indirect fatality from Jose though, that's why it got 3% from me.
 * Katia - 10% - Franklin 2.0, but a bit worse because of 2 fatalities.
 * Lee - 0.1% - Fail-lee-cia at first, but regenerated and became a major hurricane in the open Atlantic. Lee was a small hurricane, and while it threatened the British Isles as an extratropical system, it had little to no impact/s. So, see you in 2023.
 * Maria - 100% - see Irma. This is Marie 2014's sinister sister in the Atlantic. Probably Dominica and Puerto Rico's worst hurricane. Maria may have also surpassed Harvey as this season's costliest storm.
 * Nate - 50% - The literal 50/50. Isaac-esque impacts in the U.S. ($2.5 billion) with lesser death toll (only 2), but Otto-like impacts in Costa Rica (11 deaths and $185 million damages). Nicaragua and other Central American countries also suffered from this storm: Nate has killed 45 in total, and I am afraid the death toll will still rise. While its impacts in Latin America could have made Nate an easy shoo-in for retirement, its U.S. impacts lowered his retirement chance; thus the chances are 50/50 for now.
 * Ophelia - 40% - Ireland impacts are bad: their worst since Debbie in 1961. However, Debbie was not retired (as a matter of fact, a similar name is on the list next year, but it's Debby instead of Debbie), so I guess Ophelia has a chance of not getting the boot.

Summary:
 * Will surely go - Harvey, Irma, Maria
 * Probably will go - Nate, Ophelia
 * Probably will stay - Katia
 * Most likely will stay - Cindy, Don, Franklin
 * Will definitely stay - everyone else.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:20, October 17, 2017 (UTC).)

Owen's Retirement Opinions
​RETIREMENTS PROJECTION AS OF OCTOBER 2017:  In the spring of 2018, at the 40th session of the RA IV hurricane committee, the World Meteorological Organization will retire the names Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia from the rotating naming lists due to the amount of damage and deaths they caused, and they will not be used again to name another Atlantic hurricane. This will tie the record five names retired following the 2005 season. They will be replaced with Hunter, Ivy, Megan, Noah, and Odessa for the 2023 season, respectively.
 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 25% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists. (replacement picks: Dylan, Dominic, or Dane)
 * Emily - 0% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
 * Franklin - 10% - With what data is available, I don't think Franklin is going to be retired. However, if a new report comes out showing significant damage, he could easily get his odds bumped.
 * Gert - 0% - Killed two people and defied the forecasts and became a beautiful C2, but it still won't be enough to be retired.
 * Harvey - 100% - Officially the costliest natural disaster in United States, dethroning Katrina. No way he's staying.  (replacement picks: Hunter, Harold, or Harry)
 * Irma - 100%  - I'm left with no words. Only word I'm left with that I can say is catastrophic. Irma's gotta go. (replacement picks: Ivy, Ilyssa,or Imogen)
 * Jose - 0% - He put on a show and likely will become a Cat 5 in post-analysis, but he didn't affect anywhere significantly - thankfully.
 * Katia - 10% - More or less was a Franklin repeat and could've been much worse.
 * Lee - 0% - Almost failed us, and then came back to surprise us with another session of RI - in the middle of nowhere.
 * Maria - 100% - Not a chance that Maria stays. 2017 will be the first season since 2008 to see more than two names removed from the naming list as well as the first since 2007 to feature multiple Cat 5's because of this monster.  (replacement picks: Megan, Molly, Malia)
 * Nate - 75% - Damage apparently is costing around $2.5 billion or more in the United States, which if verified is quite similar to Isaac 2012's total which we all know wasn't retired. However, official damage reports in Costa Rica say this was on the same level as Otto. After initially being conservative, I've increased Nate's odds further to be retirement #4. (replacement picks: Noah, Neil, Nolan)
 * Ophelia  - 60% - Apparently damage in the areas Ophelia has hit is estimated around $2.1 billion which is nothing to laugh at. Not only that, but 42 deaths could get her to be joining Harvey, Irma, Maria and potentially Nate in the spring. I'll adjust the chances with the influx of more information in the wake of Ophelia. (replacement picks: Odessa, Ora, Olwyn)

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Leeboy100's Retirement predictions
My turn! Leeboy100 Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene- 0%: Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.
 * Bret- 1%: Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.
 * Cindy- 20%: Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.
 * Don- 3%: Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons. Update: Lowered chances to 10%. I never did feel too confident with Don being retired in the first place, but due to the fact that after it dissipated it was forgotten almost immediately, and also due to the fact that Harvey and Irma have overshadowed it, I feel even less confident that Don will go. Also, Bill was used (and not retired) in 1997, and at the time Bill Clinton was president. Update again: 3% because I feel even less confident.
 * Emily- 1%: Minimal impacts.
 * Franklin- 2%: Still no exact damage numbers, but it doesn't seem too bad. Thankfully, there were no deaths.
 * Gert- 1%: Defied all forecasts by becoming almost a major hurricane. Unfortunately caused two deaths due to rip currents.
 * Harvey- 101%: With new damage totals out of $198 billion, Harvey is now the costliest tropical cyclone on record. There is absolutely no chance that Harvey will remain on the list. Added an extra 1% just to get my point across further. Replacement picks: Hank or Harry
 * Irma- 100%: Gone, there's no logical way it's going to stay. Massive destruction in the Caribbean, and in Florida. Not as bad as Harvey, but still a terrible storm nonetheless. Irma, or "Irmageddon" as I like to call her, will not be back in 2023. Replacement picks: Ivy or Isa.
 * Jose- 5%: Caused some damage, but very minimal. Stuck around for a while though. We'll likely be seeing him again in 2023.
 * Katia- 10%: Thankfully, didn't do as much destruction as feared. Unfortunately caused two deaths, but that's not enough for retirement.
 * Lee- L0L%:Just one word: awesome. Lee was a jokester. Looked to be weak at first, and then regenerated AND became a Category 3. I'm very happy with Lee's performance. Best part is, he stayed away from land, so he gets a 0%. But due to the fact that he stayed away from land, and got that strong, he gets a gold star. Good hurricane.
 * Maria- 100%: Gone. Without a doubt. Can we get non-destructive storms now? Three hurricanes having 100% chances at retirement is more than enough. Update: Definitely gone, due to the damage in Dominica and Puerto Rico. Update: The situation in Puerto Rico keeps getting worse and worse. Also, I'm hearing some reports that damage costs are rivaling the costs of Harvey and Irma. Again, gone without a doubt. Replacement picks: Megan or Molly.
 * Nate- 85%: Damage in Central America is looking worse and worse, and I now think that we will likely have retirement #4 with Nate. Whether this chance goes up to 100 or not depends on what it does to the Gulf Coast. Can this season just end already? Update: Upped to 85% I’m still being slightly conservative, because there might still be a chance that Nate dodges retirement, but I feel like we’ll be tying 1955, 1995, and 2004 with the number of retirements. Replacement picks: Nigel, Nelson, Neil, or Noah (there's a lot of 'N' names to choose from.)
 * Ophelia- 50%: Now this is a toss-up. Caused some intense damage and deaths in the U.K. and was apparently one of their worst storms ever. Most of the deaths were caused by wildfires, but those wildfires were made worse due to the winds from Ophelia. I don’t think the U.K. has ever been put in a situation like this, where they’ve had to ask for a name to be retired, so I’m not sure. I am not certain if it will be retired, but I won’t be surprised if it is. Replacement picks: Olive, Octavia. 
 * Philippe- 1%: Broke the hurricane streak, didn’t do too much damage. Likely staying. I never thought I’d say this, but thanks for staying weak, Philippe.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Well, I made mine for the other basins, so why not here?

Well, that's it...for now. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Became the first tropical storm to form in April since 2003's Ana, and it also stands alongside Estelle in the EPac as the most commonly used tropical cyclone name in the NHC's AOR track record, with this being the 11th time Arlene was used since 1959. And because Arlene didn't affect land, we're certainly going to see Arlene used again in 2023.
 * Bret - 1% - Caused minor impacts in the southern lesser antilles, with two deaths reported, and it became one of only 3 June storms in the Atlantic to form in this location, along with Ana '79 and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. But it won't be retired.
 * Cindy - 15% - Somewhat damaging storm for the southeastern U.S, but it likely won't be retired. Cindy is also the second most commonly used Atlantic storm name, after Arlene and tied with Frances (9 uses since 1959), but since Frances was retired, and Cindy won't be, we'll see her on the list for the 10th time in 2023.
 * Don - 1% - Wasn't much different than Bret. I also highly doubt he'll be removed from the naming lists just because the current U.S. president just so happens to have the same name; if that does happen, I won't count Don as a real retirement (due to impact), just like how I don't count storms like Adolph/Isis/Israel as retired names due to impact, which is what I consider here.
 * Emily - 1% - 96,000 USD in damage is low for a U.S. landfalling TS; couple that with no deaths, and Emily probably won't go.
 * Franklin - 5% - Fortunately, no deaths have been reported from Franklin, unlike how Earl of last year killed over 90 people in Mexico, and damage probably wasn't too bad.
 * Gert - 1% - It's a shame that two people were killed from Gert due to rip currents, but otherwise it didn't affect land.
 * Harvey - 100% - Total damage from Harvey is finally out and estimated to be a mind-boggling 198 billion dollars, making Harvey the costliest tropical cyclone ever recorded and the second costliest natural disaster in recorded history, behind only the 2011 Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, which did 395 billion dollars in damage (2017 USD). With damages that extreme and 89 deaths in the US, Harvey will, without question, be retired after this year.
 * Irma - 100% - Harvey's big sister. The Caribbean islands of Barbuda, St. Martin, Anguilla, St. Barthelemy and some of the Virgin Islands were utterly annihilated by this category 5 monster; Irma caused upwards of 10 billion dollars in damage to those islands alone, making Irma the worst hurricane in terms of both intensity and damage totals to hit the northeastern Lesser Antilles on record. Couple that with a category 5 landfall and widespread damage across northern Cuba and upwards of 50 billion dollars in damage across southwestern Florida, and Irma is likely one of the top 5 costliest hurricanes of all time. And like Harvey, there is absolutely no chance Irma will be reused in 2023.
 * Jose - 4% - Jose caused somewhat extensive flooding and surge damage in parts of southeastern Massachusetts and killed 1 person, but he doesn't hold a candle to the historic impacts caused by his two predecesors or Maria, and he's probably coming back in 2023. With that being said, it looks like 2017 fell short on having 3 consecutive retirements.
 * Katia - 6% - Likely caused similar damage to Franklin, but since Katia killed two people in Mexico (while Franklin killed none), she gets an extra percent, though it's likely still not going.
 * Lee - 0% - Redeemed his initial fail by coming back and becoming a major hurricane, but Lee was still a fishspinner.
 * Maria - 100% - Devastating storm, and the costliest hurricane for the Caribbean on record, eclipsing Irma's 10 billion record set barely two weeks beforehand. Maria unexpectedly strengthened to a category 5 hurricane when she struck Dominica, becoming the most severe hurricane to hit the island on record, and later hit Puerto Rico as a strong category 4 storm, their worst hit since 1928. With potentially as much as 90 billion dollars in damage to Puerto Rico, and 1-2 billion more in Dominica, Maria could be one of the top 3 costliest hurricanes ever, so there's no way she won't be retired.
 * Nate - 85% - Damage in Costa Rica was a lot more than I expected it would be, up to 185 million, only slightly less than Otto of last year, and the death toll there stands at 11 with 2 missing. Nicaragua suffered more fatalities but I don't think they'll request him. Initially, Nate was thought to have done around 2.5 billion in damage to the U.S, but after more analysis damages have now been nerfed to only about 500 million in America, so this definitely won't get retired by the U.S. for sure. But still, Costa Rica could definitely nomiNATE like they did to Otto last year, so he's got a better chance for retirement than one might think.
 * Ophelia - 40% - Caused over a billion dollars in damage to Ireland, and killed more than 40 people in Spain/Portugal as her outer winds fanned wildfires, but on the flip side, I don't recall any prior Atlantic storms being retired for impacts in Europe, and there have been some severe ones in the past, like Charley '86 and Debbie '61. I wouldn't expect it to happen, if the remnants of past storms (like those in the Southwest US from EPac storms such as Octave '83, Norbert '14, and Linda '15) didn't get retired, but I'll give her credit regardless.

Isaac's predictions
Here's mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:44, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Everyone else - 0%.
 * Harvey - 100% - For the damage so far.
 * Irma - 100% - For damage in the Caribbean.
 * Maria - 100% - For damage to Dominica and Puerto Rico.

Puffle's prediction party
sorry for the cringey title (Retirement colors: <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) ok credit to everyone who created le colors ok go: btw i wasnt rly paying attention until harvey happened

<font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  02:00, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#ff00ff">no% - went in a circle and died. the end
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#02c">0.01% - is this a joke. barely made landfall but eh.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#04a">1% - literally landfalled in the same place as Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#dead40">fish% - fish
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#02c">waitwhat% - stop with the fails, and how was emily not retired
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#02c">0.01% - ok
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#ff00ff">lame% - fish
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#C20000">100% - HOLY CRAP HARVEY. I PREDICTED THIS TWO YEARS AGO! (Also people are predicting that Harvey will cost more than Katrina.) Replacement idea: Hal
 * <font color="#ff6060">Irma : <font color="#C20000">100% - Irma killed my best friend Charles. However, the damage isn't looking too catastrophic in some places, but it will likely go, not just for the damage it's done in Florida, but for the damage it's done in the Leeward Islands, and Cuba as well. Replacement idea: Ivy
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jose : <font color="#04a">5% - Went from threatening, to drunk in 2 days.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Katia : <font color="#04a">1% - Hit Mexico but did no damage. Earthquake was way worse.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Lee : <font color="#000">WHAT% - I'M SORRY LEE FOR UNDERESTIMATING YOU
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria : <font color="#C20000">100% - too damn scary to talk about. Replacement idea: Macy
 * <font color="#ffe775">Nate : <font color="#000">50% - No landfall yet, but could do significant damage. Moving at 26 mph according to the 11AM advisory on Oct. 7th. 2fast4me. I put cat2 on here early because everyone knows it'll be a cat2 by the next advisory.
 * <font color="#000000">Ophelia : <font color="#000">???% - Ophelia has not formed yet.


 * Puffle, please give credit to me too because I created the scale colors. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:29, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * And the grades are unnecessary, since it doesn't appear that you are using them... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * kek done <font face="Trebuchet MS" color="#ff8100">Puffle •  <font face="Trebuchet MS">Talk  <font face="Trebuchet MS">Blog

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Adding a color scale for the first time.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Arlene – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Made April absolutely amazing.
 * Bret – grade  D , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . At least it tried to do something before being sheared to shreds in the graveyard.
 * Cindy – grade  E , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Didn't look that tropical for most of its lifetime.
 * Don – grade  E , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5%  due to the media association with Donald Trump. Otherwise this was pathetic; it gets an E for going above 35 knots.
 * Emily – grade  D , retirement <font color="#FF00FF">10% . It tried, but wasn't particularly memorable.
 * Franklin – grade  C , retirement <font color="#0000FF">20%  for damage. One of a common type of storm that crosses the Yucatan before rapidly developing in the BoC.
 * Gert – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5%  for the two deaths it caused. Really kept us waiting for a while, but eventually became a C2.
 * Harvey – grade  A , retirement <font color="#330000">100% . Powerful C4 that would have been great as a fish, but turned into a flooding nightmare for Texas and Louisiana. Really, did you have to give Houston 50 inches of rain?
 * PTC 10 – grade  F  (and a designation can't be retired). Was tipped to become Irma, but it busted.
 * Irma – grade  A , retirement <font color="#330000">100% . Well, what can I say. Ridiculously powerful storm, maintained high-C5 winds for an astonishingly long period of time, and looked fabulous on satellite imagery. Unfortunately, this wasn't a fishspinner. Goodbye.
 * Jose – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF00FF">10% . Long-lived, powerful storm that thankfully didn't worsen things too much for the Leeward Islands after Irma.
 * Katia – grade  C , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Didn't look too bad for landfall as a C2. Grade is C because it scuppered its RI phase.
 * Lee – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Rose up from the dead to become a major fishspinner. Well done, Lee.
 * Maria – grade  A  for the intensity, retirement <font color="#330000">100% . Nice sub-910 mb pressure and excellent satellite presentation, but you're definitely going after Dominica and Puerto Rico.
 * Nate – grade  C , retirement <font color="#FF8000">70% . Damage in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and the USA don't look too good, with floods in Costa Rica termed the worst in recent years. $2.5 billion in the USA may not warrant retirement there though (with reference to Isaac 2012).
 * Ophelia – grade  A  (wow there's a lot of them this year), retirement <font color="#80FF00">50% . Nice record-breaking northeasterly major, but Ireland got hit pretty badly, while Spain and Portugal suffered wildfires thanks to Ophelia's inflow. Retirement for European effects are pretty vague, so I'll give this a coin toss.
 * Philippe – grade  E , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Pathetic TS that looked as bad as Colin 2015. Was this even tropical?

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 14:22, November 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Ummm... it's Colin from 2016 not 2015. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

Jdcomix's predictions
Jdcomix (talk) 02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - Grade A, 0% - Fish storm, but in April. Awesome storm.
 * Bret - Grade C, 5% - You tried. Only chance is if an island country requests this for retirement, which I doubt.
 * Cindy - Grade D, 5% - Near hurricane strength storm in June, so I'll give it some credit for that.
 * Don - Grade E, 10% - Only reason I give this a higher chance of retirement than the others so far is due to the name being the same as the current President, but even that's a stretch. Pathetic storm either way.
 * Emily - Grade D, 5% - Hit Florida with some minor impacts, nothing really to warrant retirement, though.
 * Franklin - Grade B, 10% - Giving this a low chance of retirement because there were surprisingly no deaths in Mexico, unlike Earl last year.
 * Gert - Grade B, 0% - Fish storm, but the first Cat 2 of the year and an at an unusually high latitude.
 * Harvey - Grade A-, 100% - Bye Felicia! Deducting points due to destruction. Replacement name hope: Hunter
 * PTC 10 - Grade F, 0% - Can't be retired, would have become Irma but busted.
 * Irma - Grade A+, 100% - Incredible storm, but knocked it down below an S rank because of the utter devastation caused all over the basin. Replacement name hope: Ivy
 * Jose, Grade S, 0% - Near category 5 that didn't cause any damage, just how I like it.
 * Katia -  Grade C, 5% - Not too much damage, but did kill 2 people.
 * Lee - Grade B+, 0%. Failicia at first, but regenerated and became the fifth (!) major hurricane of the season. Fish storm.
 * Maria - Grade A-, 100%. Do I need to explain what happened to Dominica and Puerto Rico? They're practically 100% destroyed. Deducting some points because of destruction. Replacement name hope: Marietta
 * Nate - Grade B, 60%. This one was interesting for the Gulf Coast. 60% chance right now because it's killed more people in Central America than Otto which was retired. Replacement name hope: Neville
 * Ophelia - Grade S, 60%. Shocking and exceptionally rare storm. Significant damage in Europe. Do they even have a delegate at the naming conference next spring? Replacement name hope: Olive

Dylan's predictions

 * Arlene: 0% - In terms of impacts, this was nothing more than April showers over the open Atlantic, but as only the second purely tropical Atlantic storm ever recorded in the month, this was a welcome surprise.
 * Bret: 5% - Cool to see something so far south so early in the season, but this storm was low on impact, and I'm having a hard time seeing how Bret won't be back in 2023.
 * Cindy: 10% - Standard-issue early-season Gulf Coast TS.
 * Don: 2% - Ryan said it best, though should Don get the boot for political reasons, I'll second the calls in for my name to take its place ;) (I must admit that I blushed a bit when I saw them — thanks, fellas!)
 * Emily: 2% - Surprise formation, meager effects.
 * Franklin: 10% - That death toll (or lack thereof) is a very pleasant surprise. This gets as high as 10% from me because I don't buy the idea of a hurricane of any strength hitting Mexico without dealing some extent of damage.
 * Gert: 1% - For the rip current fatalities. Cool storm to watch, otherwise.
 * Harvey: 100% - There's no logical way it won't happen.
 * Irma: 100% - See Harvey.
 * Jose: 6% - Relieved that not only was Jose far kinder to the Lessers than was initially feared he would be, but he wasn't that bad for the U.S. East Coast either.
 * Katia: 11% - Though Katia unfortunately did not repeat the non-existent death toll of Franklin, she was otherwise scarcely different in terms of impacts.
 * Lee: 0% - Better luck in 2023, mate :/ Or in a few days, that too!
 * Maria: 100% - See Irma.
 * Nate: 65% - I'm going to be a bit more conservative than Ryan, but otherwise I think he pretty much nailed it. This was a re-Otto for Costa Rica in terms of impacts there, and while the US impacts would probably not be enough to secure Nate as a retirement candidate on their own, they do add some frosting to the cake, so to speak.
 * Ophelia: 45% - This is a tough call. Though the wildfires on the Iberian peninsula were exaggerated by Ophelia's winds, the fact that they were already ongoing before the storm passed by may possibly count against Ophelia's chances of retirement. Conversely, while there is no precedent for storm names being retired due to extratropical impacts in Europe, the facts that a.) warnings for the UK and Ireland were already in effect while Ophelia was still tropical (due to the system's unusual proximity at the time of ET transition), and b.) Ophelia was a particularly severe storm for Ireland, give Ophelia's chances more of a boost than would typically be the case for a former Atlantic tropical cyclone hitting Europe while extratropical. On balance, I think the fact that nearly all of Ophelia's impacts were either while the storm was extratropical or, in the case of the Iberian fires, completely indirect, weighs enough against Ophelia's chances of retirement to bring them just below the 50-50 mark, but I won't be surprised if Ophelia does indeed get the boot.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Rah's predictions!
blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 16:31, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 0%, cool to watch her progress, especilly being all that far up north and the fact she was about in April, but see you in 2023!
 * Bret: 1%, Not sufficient/notable enough to warrant retirement.
 * Cindy: 5%, Ditto. Made landfall in the same place as Harv though. Forgettable storm.
 * Don: 2%, Ditto, but I don't see him going just because of all the Trump memes/media attention this storm got. SAD!
 * Emily: 2%, Ditto, just forgettable.
 * Frankie: 10%, Clumsy, caused a bit of damage but the good thing is that he was kind; no deaths! Just be careful next time, eh?
 * Gert: 5%, Knocked at my window when she arrived in Europe but apart from the surfing deaths, she wasn't that notable.
 * Harvey: 100%, THIS WILL BE GOING, NO DOUBT, UNLESS THE NHC IS ON A HIGH/ON DRUGS/DRUNK. 
 * Irma: 100%, DITTO! THIS MEGA-MONSTROUS STORM IS DOWN IN THE HISTORY BOOKS! THERE'S NO WAY THIS WOMAN IS COMING BACK! SAY HELLO TO IMOGEN 2023!
 * Jose: IDK%, too early to tell, but maybe Fabian/Nicole 2.
 * Kat: IDK%, too early to tell, but probably Frankie 2.

Whiplash's predictions
--Whiplash (talk) 04:03, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey: 100% - Obviously.
 * Irma: 100% - Obviously.
 * Maria: 100% - Obviously.
 * Nate: 60% - I'm really not sure what to rate Nate typically historical tropical storms in this area have caused a lot of deaths without being retired (i.e. Matthew in 2010) however after having Otto retired last year primarily due to effects on Costa Rica I'm not sure whether Nate would get the boot or not and whether Otto was retired primarily because of his strength. I think it could go either way but I will stick on the side of not being retired as his impacts on the U.S. which would have made the storm a more likely candidate for retirement were not as bad as originally feared, also this storm very likely could be overshadowed by the big 3 monsters of the year. With a bit more perspective and now with US landfall and totals I think a retirement is slightly more likely than not but I still wouldn't say it is a guarantee.
 * Ophelia: 30% - Killed 3 people in Ireland and killed a fair few in what is being considered the worst storm to hit the country in almost 50 years. Ireland has never requested a retirement for a system so this could be a wildcard. Also contributed its winds to spreading wildfires in Spain and Portugal which killed more than 30 people. Has a shot, but a long one.
 * Katia: 5% - Simply because Mexico retired Ingrid in 2013 because she hit on the same day as Manuel even though she wasn't that noteworthy by Mexican storm standards and Katia happened to hit on the same day as a big earthquake which might cause her to get retired.
 * Everyone else: See you in 2023!

TrueDashX (Fred)'s predictions
<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:4pt;margin-bottom:6pt;"> Note: Underlined  name indicates an active storm.

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:6pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"> In summary
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:6pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,255,255);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Arlene “Surprise” | 0% | Rare early-season fishspinning storm that beat Ana (2003)'s record for the strongest April storm, see you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: She was a rare April storm.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,255,255);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Bret “Fast” | 0.5% | Beat another Ana (1979)'s record for the earliest system developed in the MDR. 0.5% chance is for 2 deaths and $3 million damages. But we'll most likely see you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: He’s forward speed was very fast (30 mph), and only lived for a day.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,255,255);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Cindy “Ordinary” | 5% | 10th wettest storm in MS but overshadowed by Harvey. I doubt that she's going to be retired, so see you in 2023! (Nickname explanation: Although she’s the 10th wettest in the state of MS, it doesn’t make her stand out from other storms.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,255,255);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Don “Nada” | 0.5% | Bret v2 except that he's much weaker. Could be retired due to political reasons but I don't see that happening. (Nickname explanation: He barely had any impacts, forgettable.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,255,255);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Emily “Wut” | 0% | She's just a fail, and she's been a fail since 2011. (Nickname explanation: Storm that popped up from nowhere, and just… gone.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,242,204);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Franklin <span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,242,204);white-space:pre-wrap;"> “First” | 5% | First hurricane of the season and the first Franklin that became a hurricane. Thankfully there's no deaths reported in Mexico, but the pictures of the aftermath seems bad, but not as bad as what the big 3 did this year. (Nickname explanation: First hurricane of the season and the first Franklin that became a hurricane.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,231,117);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Gert “Fish” <span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,231,117);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;"> | 0% | A storm with an ugly name that defied the forecast and stay as a fishspinner in her entire life. 2 indirect deaths was tragic but it will not convince anyone to retire the name. See you in 2023! (Nickname explanation: She’s a fishspinner, duh.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,153,0);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Harvey “Floody” | 100% | He is one of the beasts to hit Texas (Along with Galveston 1900, Bret'99, and Ike'08) and will definitely be retired. Plus, Harvey is yet another old name so I wish that the WMO will replace him with some newer names. (Nickname explanation: Obviously, he drowned coastal Texas.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,96,96);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Irma “Record-breaker” | 100% | She was destructive, totally rekt this year's typhoon season, which is known to be notoriously active and intense, but turned very sloppy this year. Still, I pray for all the victims that got affected by Irma, I know this is a extremely disastrous year, but we will rebuild and live on! (Nickname explanation: Just look at how many <span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration-line:underline;white-space:pre-wrap;">records that she broke.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,153,0);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">José “Longevity” | 0% | Powerful and long-lasting storm that stayed his entire life as a fishspinner, and I feel that this storm is somewhat similar to typhoon Noru, also happened this year: first, they're all long-lasting storms, second, they are both pretty intense, and finally, they both looped during their lifetime, but unfortunately, Noru eventually hit Japan. See you again in 2023! (Nickname explanation: He’s long-lasting.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,231,117);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Katia “Franklin II” | 10% | Another forecast-defier that became a cat. 2 although initially thought to be only a strong tropical storm. But she unexpectedly fell apart before landfall, eventually causing 2 deaths, but it could've been much worse. But I doubt that she'll go. (Nickname explanation: She’s track and intensity is somewhat similar to Franklin.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,193,64);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Lee “Awesome” | 0% | An absolutely amazing forecast defier that became Harvey's fishspinning version. Initially thought to be a failure, but he never gave up. I personally think that NHC underestimated Lee's actual strength considering his impressive satellite appearance. (Nickname explanation: A major, a fishspinner, and redeemed itself from failing. Just awesome!)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,96,96);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">María “Irma Plus” | 100% | She left me with no words. Explosively intensified into a monster cat. 5 from a tropical storm in a little more than a day (30 hours). She is definitely going after this season, and would remain infamous in the coming years due to the storm itself and the controversy surrounding the irresponsible action of Pres. Trump . What's weird is that before the season, I had a dream about Maria becoming the most intense storm of the season. Anyway, it's pretty sad to see a sweet name like Maria was being used on a destructive cyclone. (Nickname explanation: She was similar to Irma, but was stronger.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,242,204);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Nate “Rushed” | 55% | He's probably going to be retired due to the death toll (45) and the damages (2.6 Billion). If he’s retired, we'll have 2 pairs of consecutive names retired this year: Harvey and Irma, Maria , Nate and Ophelia . It's sad to see another good name being retired. (Nickname explanation: Fastest moving hurricane in GoMex.)
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(255,193,64);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Ophelia “Weirdo” | 50% | Always reminds me of <span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(17,85,204);text-decoration-line:underline;white-space:pre-wrap;">The Lumineers' song . Unlike other storms, she preferred to go to Ireland and drink beer other than to go to FL to enjoy the beach. She was a very impressive hurricane, not only that she continued the hurricane streak, she also broke many records, a very Vince-ish storm! Unfortunately she had killed 42 and caused 1 Billion damages as of now, so there’s a decent chance of retirement. (Nickname explanation: Aimed at europe, the easternmost major recorded, and tied the hurricane streak.)
 * <span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(74,134,232);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;"><span style="color:rgb(0,255,255);font-size:10pt;font-weight:700;">Failippe <span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(74,134,232);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;"><span style="color:rgb(0,255,255);font-size:10pt;font-weight:700;">  | 0% | Colin'16 V2 and a f ail. Ended both Philippe's hurricane streak and the 2017's hurricane streak.
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(153,153,153);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Rina | N/A | It will most likely form from the future disturbance in SW Caribbean.
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(153,153,153);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Sean | N/A | I hope that we could get to this name this year.
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(153,153,153);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Tammy | N/A | She deserves another chance this year, after the fail in 2005.
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(153,153,153);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Vince | N/A | It will be remarkable if this forms, because then the name will be used twice (previously in 2005), also the season will be insanely active.
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(153,153,153);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Whitney | N/A | I will be extremely astonished if she forms.
 * <p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"><span style="font-size:10pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(153,153,153);font-weight:700;white-space:pre-wrap;">Alpha & Beyond | N/A| If one of them ever form this season, it will left me with no words…

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"> Likely to be retired - Harvey, Irma, Maria,

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"> Possibly retired - Nate, Ophelia

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.7999999999999998;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"> Least likely to be retired - Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Katia, Philippe

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"> Definity going to stay - Arlene, Gert, Jose, Lee

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"> Miscellaneous

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:6pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"> P.S. I don’t know if anyone noticed, but...

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:6pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"> ...Harvey means “ battle worthy ”...

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:6pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"> ...Irma means “ war goddess ”...

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:6pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"> ...and Maria means “ Rebellious ”...

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:6pt;margin-bottom:8pt;"> ...it seems like that hurricanes really lived up to their names this year.

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:4pt;margin-bottom:6pt;"> That’s all for now folks!

<p dir="ltr" style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt;"> Fr3d (talk) 14:21, October 29, 2017 (UTC)

Prism55's retirement predictions
Thought I'd do this prediction/retirement thing...

Retirement predictions:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene  - 0% - April storm, cool. Still, never touched land, so it will be back in 2023 (Note: In 2023, Arlene will be used for the twelfth time. It is the most frequently used storm name in the Atlantic.)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret  - 0.01% - The only interesting thing about Bret was that he made landfall at a very low latitude. Otherwise, weak and boring storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy  - 5% - Caused minor damage but otherwise eh. Still, 2 deaths and some damage... small chance of being retired.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don  - bad% - no
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily  - 2% - Minor damage but not going. The real question is, why wasn't Emily retired after 2005?
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin  - 5% - First hurricane of the season, very exciting. Still, caused only minor damage and no deaths. Franklin will return again in 2023.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert  - 0.1% - Category 2, but never touched land. Gert is staying for 2023.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey  - 100% - Flooded and destroyed everything, definitely going - Possible replacement: Hadrian (eh)
 * <font color="#ff6060">Irma  - 100% - Similar to Harvey, but more powerful and affected different places. Still, Irma is going. No way she stays. - Possible replacement: Ivy (I like this name)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Jose  - 2% - Moved away from the Lesser Antilles in the last second. Good, very good. Killed one person, but most likely staying.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Katia  - 10% - Franklin but with 3 deaths. Probably not retired.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Lee  - good% - Lee was a prankster. First a weak tropical storm, worse that Don. Then, Lee regenerated and became a Category 3. Lee was definitely a pleasant surprise. Still, a fish, so it's coming back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Maria  - 100% - uUUUUUUHHHH another Category 5 and another Category 5 landfall. Possibly the second costliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Caused a crisis in Puerto Rico. Maria was a bad girl, and her name will be removed. - Possible replacement: Molly (This is a good name), Melanie (Don and Melanie so funny haha)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nate  - 65% - This caused surprisingly many deaths, and the damage in the US is lower than expected. Still, two and a half billion is a lot, and when we add the 45 deaths, this has a decent retirement chance. Could be overshadowed by the three worst hurricanes of the season though... - Possible replacement: Nick (england is my city)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Ophelia  - 45% - Caused some damage to the UK and Ireland, and killed over 50 people, although most of those indirectly. Could go, or might not... - Possible replacement: Odilia (2014's Pacific Odile, but female?...), Olympia (idk)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Philippe  - 0.1% - This thing broke the hurricane streak so far, and will most likely break it even when dissipated. Minimal impacts, won't get retired.

Formation predictions (IMO):


 * Rina - 85% - Will most likely form
 * Sean - 50% - Smaller chance, but still probable.
 * Tammy - 30% - Chances are this won't form.
 * Vince - 10% - Most likely not.
 * Whitney - 1% - Probably won't get as far as here.
 * Anything in Greek - 0% - No

TLDR:


 * Definitely retired (>95%): Harvey, Irma, Maria
 * Most likely retired (60-94%): Nate
 * Possibly/possibly not retired (40-59%): Ophelia
 * Most likely not retired (5-39%): Cindy, Franklin, Katia
 * Definitely not retired (<5%): Arlene, Bret, Don, Emily, Gert, Jose, Lee, Philippe

the end. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 12:35, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

IbAHAn's Retirement Candidates List:
The list isn't completed yet, I'll work more on it in the near future.

Tropical Storm Arlene: 0%: April surprise that went in a circle and stayed out at sea.

Tropical Storm Bret: 1%: Sped so fast it disappeared before you could blink. It did cause some problems near South America, though.

Tropical Storm Cindy: 4%: Large tropical storm that caused flooding issues in Louisiana and other places as well. This had a decent chance to go, but after what three future hurricanes did, this name will not be retired.

Tropical Depression Four: N/A%: Not a named storm due to how bad the wind shear and dry air were.

Tropical Storm Don: 1%: Repeat of Bret that will be seen in 2023.

Tropical Storm Emily: 2%: Hit near Tampa, Florida, but will stay for 2023.

Category 1 Franklin: 10%: First hurricane of the season. It hit Mexico and barely did any damage, especially after what we saw three hurricanes do. This was practically Earl's less crazy brother.

Category 2 Gert: 1%: Pretty hurricane that stayed good and never really attacked land. A few people did die, though. Otherwise, good hurricane.

CAHARVEY: GONE%: UGLY hurricane that became HORRIBLE and viciously attacked Texas and Louisiana, but ESPECIALLY Texas! ''64 INCHES OF RAIN AT NEDERLAND!? AT LEAST 40 INCHES OF RAIN IN HOUSTON!?'' THIS storm went TOO FAR! And do you think that's it? DO YOU THINK THAT'S IT!? This hurricane caused at most near $200 BILLION in damage! That will make Katrina look like nothing! What's more, is that people still need help, and their homes HAVEN'T EVEN BEEN FIXED YET! That goes for Rockport, which could literally become a GHOST TOWN if people leave it be, Port Aransas, where the storm also passed over, Corpus Christi, Victoria, Galveston, and Houston and the surrounding areas. This BEHEMOTH also caused a levee breach in Colombia Lakes, and forced people to let water out of the Addicks and Barker Reservoirs so water wouldn't spill from the top. Guess what, water spilled from the top of the Addicks Reservoir anyway! Multiple bayous and rivers saw RECORD high water levels! Need I say more? Bad hurricane! This name is gone, no questions asked. Goodbye, Harvey.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten: N/A%: So lazy, it didn't even get named.

More will come later. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 02:20, October 25, 2017 (UTC)

​Send Help's Retirement Predictions
Figured I'd do one of these as my first edit on this wiki. <p style="line-height:15.75pt;"><span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">​More additions will be made, if needed. Send Help Please (talk) 04:33, November 3, 2017 (UTC)Send Help
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(0,250,244);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Arlene <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 0% - She formed in April, and that's all she'll be remembered for.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(0,250,244);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Bret <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 0.1% - Oh well, you tried. Also, first PTC.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(0,250,244);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Cindy <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 5% - A rather generic storm that few will remember after what happened later this season.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(0,250,244);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Don <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 6% - [Insert Trump joke here]
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(0,250,244);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Emily <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 0.0001% - Still recovering from her '05 snub.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,255,204);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Franklin <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 5% - First hurricane of the season (and the 10 hurricane streak). He thankfully only caused light damage no deaths in Mexico and Belize.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,231,117);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Gert <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 0% - Neat northern latitude Cat 2. No land impacts aside from a two unfortuante rip current deaths, but nowhere near enough for her to be retired.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,143,32);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Harvey <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - Bye% - He was the costliest tropical cyclone of all time, the wettest tropical cyclone in US history, and caused 90 deaths. Goodbye and good riddance.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,96,96);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Irma <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - Seeya% - After scraping a few Carribean islands into the ocean and slamming into Cuba and Florida, killing over 100 people in the process. She'll definitely be joining Harvey in the history books.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,143,32);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Jose <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 3% - He threatened to recreate the Luis-Marilyn situation with Irma, but thankfully didn't come to fruition. Instead, we got a powerful borderline-Cat. 5 hurricane that took one too many shots of tequila and went a bit loopy (i'm so sorry), before stalling off the New England coast. One unfortunate death, but overall a major improvement compared to the last two storms.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,231,117);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Katia <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 10% - Basically just a Cat. 2 Franklin with three deaths. She gets points for being of of three active hurricanes at the same time alongside Irma and Jose, though.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,193,64);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Lee <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - AMAZING% - This is hands-down my favorite Atlantic storm this year, and possibly my favorite storm overall (hard to decide between this and Otis and  Jova     h  ahaha ). However, since he was a fishspinner, he’ll be around for 2023.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,96,96);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Maria <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> – Hasta la vista% - Sigh. Now we move from a great storm to a horrible one. She obliterated Dominica and knocked out Puerto Rico’s entire power grid, killing who-knows-how-many in the process. Needless to say, she won’t dodge retirement this time around.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,255,204);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Nate <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 75% - His Damage total and death toll in Costa Rica rivaled that of Otto’s from last year, but his US impact was more akin to Hermine’s. Costa Rica will most likely nominate him, but if they don’t, he has no chance of retirement, as his US impact was vastly overshadowed by not one, but three other hurricanes.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(255,193,64);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Ophelia <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - 50% - A surprise far-east major that whacked Ireland as and extratropical cyclone. Europe has never retired a tropical or extratropical cyclone for impacts actually in Europe before, but the damage and death toll for this storm may make them consider it. For now, I’ll leave this as a 50/50.
 * <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(0,250,244);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;">Faillippe <span lang="EN" style="margin:0px;color:rgb(58,58,58);font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";font-size:10pt;"> - terrible% - You had one job Phillippe, and that was to be a hurricane force fishspinner. And you failed. Miserably. Not to mention, you looked horrible on satellite imagery. Please redeem yourself in 2023.

Potentially for Don
Since Don has a fairly decent chance to go, I've set up some replacement names for him:


 * Dylan
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Drake
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dexter
 * Drew
 * Darren
 * Daryl

Post below which two names you like. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:58, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I personally don't find Don's removal likely just because he has the same name as the U.S. president, but if he is removed for that reason, I'd like him to be replaced with Dylan. :) Also, add Darren and Daryl to those list of names. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with you Ryan. If this were to replace with Dylan, he will probably freak out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * I was going to make this comment earlier, but I will just post it here. Pardon my tone, but in my opinion, it is unlikely that Don will be retired simply because it happens to have a similar name as an incumbent U.S. president. Previous presidents and other prominent American political figures have had their names added on the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists without objection. For example, the name Georges was left on Atlantic List II despite President George H.W. Bush being head of state at the time and a presidential candidate for that year. Additionally, Bill, Madeline, Hilary, and Alberto were all used in a span of four years in lieu of potential connotations with notable Clinton administration figures (the Commander-in-Chief himself (whose birthday is today, August 19), Secretary Albright, the First Lady, and Vice President Gore, respectively). More recently, Ike and Laura were the chosen replacement names after the 2002 season, even though the former is a nickname for a former American president and the latter was the name of the wife of then president George W. Bush. Also, if we are going to remove Don, why not remove Michael, the (formal) name of our current vice president as well?
 * Nevertheless, here are five additional potential replacement names should Don be removed:


 * Dusty
 * Dominic
 * Draco (Any Harry Potter fans?)
 * Dante
 * Devan


 * Also, I would consider removing Drew from your replacement name list, as some may find that name too similar to Andrew. I hope this helps!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:42, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I find it only likely that Don would be removed along with the name of Hilary. I don't think they would remove one and not remove the other. Nonetheless, my three replacement name candidates would be Dylan, Drew, or Doug. Obviously, it would be cool to see Dylan's name get added to the naming list like my name got added onto the list last year to replace Otto, or Drew being added to the list for Andrew to have a name to associate with. Doug (third preference) is also an option. Yes, the name Douglas is on the EPAC list but that hasn't stopped them from using "Frank" and "Franklin, "Daniel" and "Danny" or even "Juliette" and "Julia". Also, the name "Frederic" had been retired and the name "Fred" had appeared on the naming list years later, so yeah, like Doug, it's a possibility and can't be ruled out. All three of those names are great options. Owen 07:42, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

I doubt that this will receive that treatment. But if it does, why not Dylan? 😝 Other names in Ryan and Andrew's list are also quite fitting. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

This hurricane season will not be remembered for its "D" storm,I can't imagine a retirement of the name.12.144.5.2 04:30, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

For Harvey
Don has no chance of being retired this discussion is silly. Harvey hasn't made landfall yet but pretty sure he is going to be retired so lets make some H names. Thoughts? Any interesting ones I missed? --Whiplash (talk) 18:30, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hannibal
 * Hans
 * Hadrian
 * Handel
 * Hank
 * Harper - Personally would rather see this used for a girls name although it can be used for either.
 * Harris/Harrison
 * Hayden
 * Heath
 * Heinrich
 * Helmut
 * Henrik
 * Herb/Herbert
 * Horacio
 * Howard/Howie
 * Huey
 * Hugh
 * Hunter - Hurricane hunters chasing Hurricane Hunter lol...
 * Hyacinth - My personal fave


 * Howard was used in the Eastern Pacific last year. :/ It'll be used again in 2022, so that's out. I'd also add Harold and Henry to those names as possible replacements (note: Henri from list 1 is pronounced "ahn-ree", not "Hen-ree" so they're not as confusing as they seem despite being one letter apart). Ryan1000 19:31, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd like to see the names Heath or Hugh, but those are too similar sounding to Keith and Hugo. My best pick would be Herman or Herbert. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:44, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Herman might be confusing with Hernan, which was on the 2014 EPac list and is scheduled for 2020. Ryan1000 19:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My best picks will be Harry, Howie, Herbert, Hans, Hank, Homer or Hal. Harley will be okay, but it reminds me of Harley Quinn instead. Maybe even Hannibal, Hubert (kinda similar to Humberto though), Homer, Huey or Hayden. (Update as of 9/18: I'll add Homer to my picks. It would be fun if Harvey and Maria will be replaced by Homer and Marge. Sadly, Lisa is on List II. Maggie and Bart will follow soon.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My top three picks are Hayden, Harris, and Hank. Hadrian is kinda similar to Adrian though (which is on our current list for the EPac). Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 02:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Two french names I didn't think about... Honore and Hilaire. Both of which are boys names. --Whiplash (talk) 14:39, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I've always felt like Hank would be one of the first H names that the NHC would go with. It does seem like a name they'd choose. So, that's my pick. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would prefer a name that doesn't sound too/very old-fashioned. I'd prefer something more modern or timeless. I would not like that AT ALL. This naming list already sounds so old-fashioned and dated (is anyone even called "Gert" these days??) Anyway, here are my suggestions for possible "H" replacement names, since my instincs tell me Harvey is DEFO getting the boot:


 * Habib
 * Hackett
 * Haddon
 * Hadley
 * Hadrian
 * Hafiz
 * Hagan
 * Hakim
 * Hakan
 * Hal
 * Haines
 * Haile
 * Hagley
 * Hallam
 * Halstead
 * Hampton
 * Hardy
 * Hardik
 * Harald
 * Harley
 * Henrik
 * Helmut
 * Hendy
 * Henning
 * Henley
 * Hiroshi
 * Hilton
 * Homer (LOL)
 * Hopinks
 * Howie (oldish but okay I guess)
 * Hunter (HURRICANE HUNTER IS STRIKING FLORIDA can you imagine THAT being on the headlines? kek)
 * Hussain
 * Hyatt
 * Hymen
 * Hyde
 * Herrick
 * Huey
 * Hurst
 * Henrietto (LOL)
 * Henriettus (ANOTHER LOL)
 * Henriettito (HAHA KEK)
 * I must admit that H names for boys are quite old-fashioned with very little space for more modern names but I kept my list more "classic" I guess. HI IT'S HENRIETTE AND I'M AWESOME (talk) 22:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

My top 3 name replacement candidates for Harvey would be Harry, Harold, and Hunter. I think Hunter would be the most likely name to be chosen. Owen 05:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't think they would choose Hunter though. People might confuse it with hurricane hunters. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

If it's hans atlantic is frozen confirmed Hal is the best name for a Harvey replacement. Hurricane Hal, I love it <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Harrison is my pick. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:44, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Going to go with Hans, Homer, or Hunter (which would be really funny). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:29, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

If we had a Hurricane Horton...who would hear it?12.144.5.2 14:34, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Don't think Hunter will be chosen though. :P Anyways, I like Hannibal (sounds epic), Harris(on), Herbert and Hyacinth. Hardy, Habib, Halstead, Hampton, Harley, Henley, Hilton, Hyde, Herrick and Huey are fine as well. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

For Irma
We all know Harvey is going to be retired, but Irma is a certain retirement candidate as well, due to her unprecedented devastation in the Caribbean islands and significant destruction in Florida. So, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Irma? Here's a few of my suggestions:

What are your thoughts? Ryan1000 07:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ian(n)a
 * Iara
 * Ina
 * Idette
 * Inga
 * Ilsa
 * Idina
 * Ivy
 * Idona
 * Idra
 * Isha
 * Ignacia
 * Ila
 * Isa
 * Iora


 * Irina, Ivy, Isa or Inga are my picks. Ilsa sounds like Elsa (which replaced Erika). Ignacia can also be used, though it is similar to Ignacio (which is being used in EPac). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * My pick to replace Irma will be Ivy. Owen 08:44, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Added Isa. Ignacia is close to Ignacio, though we saw Martin replace Matthew earlier this year while a variation of Martin (Marty) was in the EPac, so Ignacia and Ignacio being used simultaneously isn't comletely out of the question. Ryan1000 08:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Inga was used in 1961 and 1969, the latter of which was the third-longest lasting TC in the North Atlantic basin. My suggestions are Ilana and Iora, though my personal favourite is Ivy (even though it's already been used 11 times in the WPac and five more times in the SHem). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:27, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Take note that Irma was also used in the WPac for a number of storms, including a C5 in 1971 and a strong C4 in 1981 that killed hundreds in the Philippines (it wasn't retired after that though). So if it seems that (as if) NHC got Irma from the WPac lists, then why not Ivy? However, Irma was used in 1978 in the Atlantic; following that pattern, Inga can be a possible candidate as replacement for Irma. Then again, NHC is somehow leaning towards names that are more current/timely (or even trendy), i.e. Elsa for Erika, Julian for Joaquin, Imelda for Ingrid, Sara for Sandy, Ian for Igor, Martin for Matthew, Owen for Otto, etc. Anyway, this is just in preparation for the impacts of Irma in the northern Lessers & the rest of the Antilles (and eventually U.S.), who knows, Irma might change her mind and turn away from land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hmmm. Ike......? Stacy54

Lol. That made me laugh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I like Idina. It adds to the recent trend of Frozen themed names, lol. Jdcomix (talk) 14:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Isa, Ivy, and Iara are my picks.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:33, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Maybe I'll choose Ivy, Isa, Iora, or Irina. Ilsa sounds too similar to Elsa (to be used in 2021). We are kinda running out of "I" names due to the curse... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:41, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Ivy was retired as a typhoon name after a very strong one.Doesn't retiring a name in one basin and then using it in another sort of defeat the purpose?12.144.5.2 15:57, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Some extra names to consider, I personally am a big fan of the next name being Ivy or Inga since Inga has already been used before and not retired.


 * Ibolya - Fairly common female Hungarian name somewhat popular as a landed immigrant name as well.
 * Iggy - Usually thought of this as a male name but there are a few female instances of it too (Iggy Azalea).
 * Ilse
 * Iman
 * Immaculata
 * Imogene
 * Indira
 * Innocence
 * Irina
 * Isla - This has been an increasingly popular name lately.
 * Ivana/Ivanka - (Make a Trump themed list. ;))
 * Ixia
 * Izzy

Again I am rooting for Ivy as the next I name. (If we can use mythological names as well then Io would also possibly be on this list.) --Whiplash (talk) 16:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I am going for either Ivy or Imogen. In my opinion, Ivana is too close to Ivan. Izzy is a variant of Isabel. I also would pick Iola, Idette, or even Inga. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12, that's not unheard of; in the Atlantic, Celia, Dora, and Hilda were all retired on the old naming lists and all 3 of those names are in use in the Eastern Pacific today, though none have been retired since. Also, Typhoon Ike was retired after 1984 and Ike was chosen to replace Isidore in 2002 (but was axed on his first usage in 2008), so it's not impossible for a name to be retired in one basin and used again in another. That has also happened with a number of SHem storms, though I can't name them all. Ryan1000 23:31, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I bet the NHC would choose some lame oldish name such as Harold or Hank to replace Harvey. I wouldn't want that. I'd prefer Harper. As for Irma, I very much want the replacement name to be Imogen. I quite like Henriette's suggestions, by the way! Why didn't anyone comment? I'd pick one from her list! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

I feel like it would be Ivy. Ivy (like Hank, see above) just seems like a name the NHC would pick, and I'm honestly surprised it hasn't been used yet in the Atlantic, though it has been used a few times in the WPac. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 18:36, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * The NHC suggested Ina and Ivy as possible replacements for Isabel in 2003, as well as Ida (which was chosen), so they may bring up those same names for Irma this time around. Ryan1000 01:53, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Those 2 names would be nice replacements, although Ivy sounds better (even though it has been used in other basins and retired in the WPac). I additionally love the names Izzy, Imogen, Iggy and Indira. "Innocence" would be hilarious if the name was used for a devastating, aka "not innocent" hurricane. That name would be best suited for fishspinners. :P Doubt Ivana/Ivanka would be chosen either due to political reasons. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:34, September 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * So far, I like the following names: Ivy, Inga, In(n)a, Irina, Idina and Imogen. Is(s)a is also a good one. (Issa hurricane, lol. Just kidding.) Btw Steve and 12, Ivy wasn't retired in WPac. It was actually last used in 1994. The list was changed the following year. (@ Steve: Maybe you're referring to Iva, which was retired (or should I say removed?) in EPac.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:36, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'd personally pick Idina, Ivy, or Isa for replacements. I don't personally want Ivana or Ivanka due to potential confusion with Ivan, another devastating "I" storm that was retired only 13 years ago, not necessarily due to political reasons (Ivanka Trump). Ryan1000 02:35, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Here are some more: Andros 1337 (talk) 19:01, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Icelyn
 * Idalia
 * Idetta
 * Ieesha
 * Imiza
 * Inca
 * India
 * Indiana
 * Indigo
 * Inocencia
 * Italia


 * I highly doubt India will be chosen as a replacement name due to the country named India, seeing as how the WMO removed Israel from the EPac list in 2001 due to the country with the same name. Indiana is probably in the same boat, due to the U.S. state with the same name. Ryan1000 23:30, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Probably the same goes for Italia as well, since it is Italian/Spanish for Italy. Andros 1337 (talk) 16:19, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Is it too soon after Isabel to suggest Isabella as a replacement name? Otherwise, I'll go with Ivy as my backup pick. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:03, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Why not go with the name Ilyssa as a replacement for Irma? It's my new favorite pick, followed by Ivy and Imogen. The name Inga isn't out of the realm of possibility either. Owen 16:50, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * So while following #Maria on Twitter saw a person with the name Ivelisse. Looked it up to see if it was a common name and apparently appears to be a popular name in Spanish speaking and Caribbean countries. Could be a contender as well. Like this name a lot as well quite unique. --Whiplash (talk) 02:19, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

For Maria
Because we are probably going to be having this discussion anyways. M retirements are great because this letter has SO many names to pick from so instead of listing a bunch of possibilities like with I or H as they don't have as much variety I'm just gonna name my 5 favorite M replacement possibilities.


 * Manon - A French name that would be interesting to see
 * Medea - My runner-up.
 * Minerva - My personal fave.
 * Morgan(a)
 * Myra

Thoughts? --Whiplash (talk) 00:34, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Molly is my first choice by considerable distance, as it happens to be the name of one of my closest friends. Minerva, Melanie, Millicent, Mildred, and Morgan would also be good picks. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:49, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Millie
 * Molly
 * Morgan
 * Mollie
 * Mary
 * Madison
 * Maddison
 * Madelyn
 * Maggie
 * Minerva (please no)
 * Minnie (hell no)
 * Mackenzie
 * McKenzie
 * Magdelena
 * Mathilde
 * Matilda
 * Megan
 * Meagan
 * Mimi
 * Moxie
 * Monique
 * Maxime
 * Manon
 * Monika
 * Monroe
 * Margot
 * Maryse
 * Marta
 * Marit
 * Metta
 * Mette


 * What are your opinions? I would personally choose MONIQUE, MEGAN, MAXIME, MATHILDE, MIMI, MANON or MOLLY.  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 01:25, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Melanie, Molly, and McKenzie are my picks. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:11, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here are my ideas, what do you think?


 * Maxime is a boy's name silly-willy. Maybe you are thinking of Maxine? --Whiplash (talk) 01:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't know how I managed to forget Meg(h)an but that's another name high on my list, probably second after Molly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maude doesn't seem to have been used.I would suggest Mariah,with its different pronunciation,but the "Paint Your Wagon" song with that different pronunciation actually officially spells the name "Maria" nonetheless.So we can't "call the wind Ma-RYE-uh" differently.
 * Melisandre?...Munia?12.144.5.2 03:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sad to see that a beautiful name like "Maria" has to be used for a monster. I choose Molly, Morgan, Madison, Minerva, Mary, Maggie, Mathilde, Matilda, Meghan, Monique, Melanie or Myra. And there could be many more that I like. There's so many "M" names to choose from. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:13, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Maria is shaping up to be a strong retirement candidate if the current forecast pans out and Puerto Rico gets a strong cat 4 landfall from this, although thankfully the global models turn Maria offshore before hitting the Eastern U.S. as of now, hopefully that's the case down the road. My favorite pick would be Melanie, but Molly, Morgan, and Megan are also good choices. Ryan1000 09:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Mara, Martha, Maxine/Maxie, Monica, Melanie, Molly, Mandy, Marge/Margaret, Manon, Meg(an). Those are my picks so far. My favorites are Martha and Marge, tbh. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:53, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

My favorite to replace Maria would be Megan. Owen 16:50, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Some more I guess...

Edit: Forgot about Miranda.
 * Magda
 * Marge
 * Marianna
 * Marina
 * Marla (I and M open time to add Trump's ex wives and make this the Trump themed list we always wanted)
 * Marlene
 * Meg
 * Megara
 * Melania (See above)
 * Missy
 * Misty
 * Mitzy/Mizzi
 * Mona
 * Mylene
 * Myrna

There are a lot to pick from here. --Whiplash (talk) 20:10, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * My best picks are Mae, Margot, Molly, Meg, and Minerva. Possible picks are Martha, Marge, and Matilda. The big no-no is Monica due to the storm of the same name that struck Australia in 2006. Mary is too close to Marie and Maria. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:44, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

My picks. Molly Mitchy Minty Monty Morgan Mexica Merry Mounds Moria Annnnnd..... MONICA!!!!! User:Stacy54 7:57 AM September 19.

Here are some more: Andros 1337 (talk) 23:40, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Macey
 * Maleficent
 * Margarita
 * Marisol
 * Marley
 * Martina
 * Meredith
 * Michelina

So many M names we need to stop... but I can't here are some more:


 * Mabel
 * Makayla
 * Maribelle
 * Marvina
 * Maven
 * Melvinia
 * Morticia - Lul if it gets this name.

I am literally going to be quite intrigued to see what the replacement M name will be. Probably one of the more common ones obviously but will be interesting to see if they pick a less popular one. Do we know what some of the suggestions to the WHO were for Michelle or Marilyn? --Whiplash (talk) 04:31, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

For Nate
Due to the deaths and flooding that has already occurred in Central America, and the forecast track into the Gulf Coast, it is safe to say that Nate may already have a decent chance of retirement.

There are quite a bit of male "N" names, so I'll choose some of my favorites:


 * Noah
 * Norris
 * Nolan(d)
 * Nick
 * Neil
 * Nelson
 * Nico
 * Nigel
 * Norton
 * Niles

There's also more, but it'll be too much to list every single one. But I'll go and pick out some more:


 * Neal (similar to "Neil")
 * Nathaniel (similar to Nate, a bit doubtful this will be chosen)
 * Nadir
 * Niko
 * Nevan
 * Nat
 * Nikolai
 * Nathan (similar to Nate, a bit doubtful this will be chosen)
 * Nacho (doubt the NHC will pick this though :P)
 * Norwell
 * Nilo
 * Ni(c)colo
 * Nilsen
 * Nyle
 * Niall (Horan :P)

Any more interesting names?

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hmm... I don't really think that NHC will choose Nathan or Nathaniel because they are same as Nate. Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:13, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Noah and Nigel are my picks for the replacement if it does occur. T  G  2 0 1 7 23:37, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fred, those names are not really the same (the spellings are different, for one). Nate is a nickname for Nathan(iel) and it's possible that the NHC could choose nicknames (or alternative names or variants). But it's not as likely. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:59, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, but WMO used Frederic was replaced with Fabian, then replaced with Fred, which is a shortened/nickname for Frederic. Hurricane Fred (talk) 23:13, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nelson & Nigel are my picks. Neal/Neil is also a good one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:51, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I dunno what to choose, I guess I have to pick Noah, Nigel, and Nelson. (In fact, Noah is the most popular baby name of 2016.) But Nathan, Nathaniel, Nat, and Nico, no way Jose. (Nico is similar/shortened name to Nicholas.) Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:55, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Niko is the name of one of my closest friends, so yeah... my top pick by far. (68, the names Fran and Frances were on the Atlantic lists simultaneously for nearly two decades until Fran's retirement after the 1996 season, so I don't see any issue with Nicholas and Niko/Nico being on the lists at the same time.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:05, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * See I was actually going to say that I really didn't think there are very many N names for boys at all. After the ones listed above the only ones I could think of that weren't included would be Neville, Ned, and Natal. Neymar due to the soccer player I believe has also increased in popularity recently, however of all of them Natal is probably my favorite. Edit: Also forgot about Nikita which can be used male or female it is androgynous kind of like Sam. --Whiplash (talk) 18:36, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * My personal picks for Nate, should he be bad enough for the U.S. to get retired (I don't think the Caribbean impacts will cut it, unfortunately) would be Noland, Nigel, Nelson, or Nick. I'm aware Nicholas is already on list 1 (last used in 2003), but as Dylan mentioned, and I did before, having variations of names used on different Atlantic and/or EPac lists isn't out of the question, we saw how Matthew was replaced by Martin earlier this year while Marty was in the EPac lists, so Nick/Nico aren't out of the question either, though it's not my primary pick regardless. Ryan1000 23:55, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Seeing as how Nate isn't a certain retirement candidate at this point, I've changed the subheader to "potentially for Nate" (like with Don). There's still an outside chance he could go but it's certainly not obvious like Harvey, Irma, or Maria. Ryan1000 23:13, October 9, 2017 (UTC) Eh, scratch what I said before, I didn't expect Nate to be almost as destructive as Otto was for Costa Rica, this may actually be a near-certain candidate for retirement, like the other big 3 storms we saw this year. Ryan1000 11:17, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

For Ophelia
This storm has somewhat of a chance to be retired, since 38 fatalities have occurred. So here's a list of potential replacements.


 * Ora
 * Odessa
 * Olive
 * Oprah
 * Olympia
 * Octavia
 * Oksana

I know there aren't very many names to choose from, but there aren't many "O" names to begin with. T G  2 0 1 7 18:09, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Some more
 * Odilia
 * Otylia
 * Oribella
 * Oakley
 * Odiana
 * Odiane (variant)
 * Oleysa

Really, what's there to choose from? 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 19:36, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Onora
 * Orchid
 * Orla
 * Orpha
 * Orva

Are some other names that are possible. --Whiplash (talk) 00:07, October 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Out of all these names, I'd pick Ora, Olive, Odessa, and Orla. Odilia is too close to Odile. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:47, October 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * I know Odilia is close to Odile, I just thought that there could be a small possibility that it would be used. Or maybe not, idk. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 19:12, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

These are my personal top 10 picks:
 * Olive
 * Octavia
 * Oriana
 * Oprah
 * Olympia
 * Oriel
 * Odessa
 * Orla
 * Orpha
 * Oakley

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, October 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * My pick goes to Olive. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:55, October 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll pick Octavia to give this a Shakespearean theme. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:08, October 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * I pick Odessa, Olive and Ora. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:04, October 22, 2017 (UTC)

Generically
Without regard to particular letters of the alphabet,what do people think makes a good hurricane name? I prefer that they not be particular modern,without being cobwebby.I suppose one might try for "wimpy" names in the course of wishing for storms to be gentle,but I have this sinking (not to 25inHg I hope) feeling that the tropical systems won't care what we call them."Major Hurricane Fluffy has triggered mudslides washing the remains of Resort City into the sea,after the soil was left waterlogged amid the wholesale devastation wrought by Hurricane Bambi and Hurricane Cuddles..." 12.144.5.2 00:10, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

UHHHHH.... (French Narrator) The very next evening... (French Narrator) Sinba? Beware of Maria.


 * What is a good replacement for Tammy?-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  05:25, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Tammy is a girls name right? Tiffany might be a good replacement for Tammy. Names like Trixie and Tatum are also good names that'll replace that name. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:32, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * What about Timantha, when Timmy Turner from the Fairly OddParents was turned into a girl for one episode? Andros 1337 (talk) 23:56, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Season Changes
Surprised no one added this section yet, but so far we've had Arlene, her TCR came out two months ago. Anyone have thoughts on what we might see post-season? Ryan1000 15:53, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wonder if will we get TCRs for potential tropical cyclones.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:21, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * An investigation into just how many records Irma set.(Klotzbach has linked to an obsolete PDF of Irma's records on Twitter today).Post-2005 we had some upgrades,if Irma actually outdid Allen they'll want to figure it out.12.144.5.2 19:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna be bold and say Jose will be upgraded to a Cat 5 post-season.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:42, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Thoughts: Cindy may go up to 55 knots, Emily will probably be found to have formed earlier and get an upgrade to 45 knots, Jose will probably be upgraded to C5, and Katia will probably be found to have formed earlier. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:02, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

I wonder what will be done with PTC Ten. Could it potentially be designated as an unnamed subtropical storm? Andros 1337 (talk) 19:16, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

I have the feeling Jose will be upgraded to a C5, it looked more organized the hour before it was upgraded to 155 mph. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 20:06, September 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * I definitely think that Jose will be upgraded to a C5. I also think Emily and Harvey will get an upgrade. Emily had a 45 kt peak and Harvey had a peak of 120 kt over land. The most likely thing to happen, however, is Irma getting an upgrade to 165 kt. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:15, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure how the NHC will treat potential tropical cyclones after the season; if PTC 10 gets a report it may be upgraded to an unnamed storm post-season. If Jose doesn't make landfall, I'd like him to be upgraded to a cat 5 so we can have at least one Atlantic cat 5 to never make landfall anywhere at any intensity. Ryan1000 23:35, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * After contacting the NHC myself, one of their forecasters said that, if a potential tropical cyclone is not upgraded to a TD or TS in reanalysis, it will only get a best track line and data, but not its own tropical cyclone report. So PTC 10 this year won't get its own TCR (assuming its not upgraded in reanalysis), but it will still get mention in their best track record. Ryan1000 02:36, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

KN2731 made this kind of table for reanalysis tropical cyclone reports on the EPac forum page, I'll add this here for the Atlantic too. When a TCR comes out, you can put it in the proper column for that storm, we'll have a side-by-side comparison with operational and reanalysis intensity as well: Hopefully this helps with identifying intensity upgrades/downgrades. Arlene's pressure was knocked down by 3 mbars in reanalysis thus far. EDIT: Slightly changed, this'll make it look better. Ryan1000 20:35, September 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Thanks for helping to copy it over. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:22, September 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * And soz for the late response on this. But I agree with Jose being a Cat 5 since its close to 160 mph. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:28, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * That table is very neat. I would give a chance for Jose being upgraded to a C5, and Irma could be upgraded to 190 mph. PTC 10 has a chance of being upgraded to something (sub)tropical. Harvey's windspeed could be slightly upgraded as well. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:55, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * I doubt that Harvey will be upgraded to a 140 mph cat 4 in reanalysis; there could be minor pressure adjustments but the winds will likey stay the same. If Irma is upgraded to a 190 mph hurricane, she'd tie Allen, which would be a record for the strongest September hurricane in windspeed. Also, added Nate. Feel free to edit his intensity as time goes on. Ryan1000 00:05, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lots of people are saying that TD 17 should have formed much earlier, even up to 42 hours ago. Maybe this will show up in reanalysis. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:31, October 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Since Nate was so close from being a Cat 2, maybe it'll be upgraded to that intensity. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:14, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * I've slightly edited Harvey and Lee to put in the times when they were tropical cyclones, as they dissipated and later regenerated. Not expecting Nate to be upgraded to a cat 2, but I wouldn't be surprised if Irma gets a windspeed upgrade in reanalysis. Ryan1000 02:41, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hopefully the NHC can use this lull (both basins they monitor are dead) to work on more TCRs. I'm hoping Ophelia gets buffed slightly due to her great satellite presentation. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:25, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

I've slightly edited the table again to include the date of the TCR, the links will be in the storm names when they come out, like you did in the EPac. Ryan1000 19:57, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like TD 4 went up on the NHC page, though the TCR itself was released on October 20, 13 days ago. The only changes are the pressure being raised by 1 mbar and that it was found to have formed one day earlier, on July 5 instead of 6. Ryan1000 05:05, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ryan, you meant to say TD 4 but instead, you said TD 6. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:31, November 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * I think you meant TD 4. Anyway, it was a shame its winds weren't upped to 35 mph, I was kinda hoping they would be. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:30, November 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sorry, meant to say 4, fixed. Looks like the NHC may take a while to finish the TCR's on the big 3 hurricanes this year, they may not be finished until next year's season starts. Ryan1000 21:15, November 2, 2017 (UTC)

General Discussion
Not sure if I'm allowed to make a new section like this, if not just remove. Anyways, I thought a section for general discussion about the season could be helpful and have some use. Discussion about anything related to the season, its storms and effects... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 11:46, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is what Forum:Hurricane Talk and Forum:Worldwide activity discussion are for. Use those.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  18:42, October 15, 2017 (UTC)