Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

October
The season has gone fast, didn't it? Isaac829 E-Mail  02:11, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, we might se 1 or 2 more storms in EPac until the season dies down. Ryan1000 08:00, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi:South of Mexico
Very big Aoi, 10% atm.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  00:38, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:19, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
STWO says 30%. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:19, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Starting to pull together...50% now. Looks like a Dora (1999) to me. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:02, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

No surface circulation yet, but the invest is up to 70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 15-E
Now a TD. Here comes Olivia, 16th of the season. EPac's about to tie ATL again. Ryan1000 17:43, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olivia
Now Olivia, and already above the NHC forecast. Some strengthening is likely, maybe a peak at 65-70 mph? Kiewii! 21:55, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

I think so, but I won't rule out a 75 mph Hurricane Olivia. Anything stronger than 75 mph or lower than 60 mph seems unreasonable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:21, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah... no hurricane coming from this one. After staying at 60 mph for a day or so, Olivia's falling apart. Down to 45 mph now; that shear is really getting a hold of her. When was the last time an EPAC storm defied predictions by staying weak? --HurricaneMaker99 21:01, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep but Paul could be serious trouble.Allanjeffs 21:25, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * @HM99: Tropical Storm Fernanda, the only sub-hurricane strength last year, was expected to briefly become a hurricane, too (if it had, every named storm would've reached hurricane intensity last year). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:18, October 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fernanda came close as heck though. Olivia was overestimated by 15 kts. --HurricaneMaker99 23:34, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Olivia
Done for. --HurricaneMaker99 02:44, October 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep. My least favorite storm of this year. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:49, October 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * 35 mph/1006 mb. Here goes nothing. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:56, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Bye Olivia! Paul anyone? STO12 (talk) 03:24, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

my least favorite storm was Hector that should have stay as Ernesto ,and John the two fails of the season,anyways base on the gfs Paul is coming soon and expected to become a formidable storm may trouble Mexico.Allanjeffs 04:07, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Olivia
Yep. Isaac829 E-Mail  11:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Bye, Olivia! Hopefully, if Paul comes, he won't do what his 1982 predesscor did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:08, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

2011 was a once-in a lifetime event for EPac. We will likely never see another EPac season with a major hurricane existing in every month of the season except the first month (2008 ATL anyone?), and an ACE that was 120% above normal despite what NOAA forecasted "Only a 5% chance of above-normal activity in EPac". Anyways, yeah, that was a fail. Paul 1982 was a nightmare for Central America and also heavily damaged Mexico. Paul 2006, however, caused a pittance of damage to Mexico when it came ashore. I'd prefer a repeat of his last incarnation than the 1982 incarnation any day. Ryan1000 14:32, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Near Mexico
Popped on the TWO and is already at 20%. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:57, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Now invested. Paul, anyone? Ryan1000 16:55, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 30%. I think so. It'll be interesting to see who comes first, Paul or Patty? And after that, will Rosa or Rafael form earlier (assuming we get two more named storms in both basins)? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:59, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Patty has win the race and probably 98L will be Rafael.Allanjeffs 20:51, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

This invest is up to 40%, but still hasn't developed yet. It likely won't become much if it does develop though. Ryan1000 21:37, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 50%. However, could still struggle. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:33, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

We could have a tropical depression in the EPac...70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:32, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

100% here comes Paul.Allanjeffs 18:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

straight to ts Paul. PAUL, EP, E,, , , , 16, 2012, TS, O, 2012101000, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, EP162012 .Allanjeffs 19:58, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Paul
40 mph/1005 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:01, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Catching up with the Atlantic! STO12 (talk) 21:36, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Expect rapid intensification with this one imo.Allanjeffs 21:51, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

May become our next major hurricane, but will remain out at sea while it is one. It may recurve north, but it'll be much weaker if it affects land by then. Ryan1000 22:15, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Paul
And it's a 'cane. Now at 75/988. It hasn't been wanting to explode. NHC doesn't make it that much stronger though. Ryan1000 11:00, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

This may not be significant, but with Paul's upgrade, 2012 is the second year in a row the NHC underestimated the number of the hurricanes (5-9 were predicted, but Paul is our 10th). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:23, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

NHC underestimated the numbers? I think you mean CPC (NOAA) underestimated the numbers. The NHC doesn't make the forecasts by itself. Only CSU, NOAA, TSR, WSI, UKMET, and a few other organizations make the yearly forecasts. Anyway, Paul seems to be strengthening. I'm not sure about major hurricane strength though, and even if it does, it shouldn't significantly affect land. Ryan1000 16:41, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Major hurricane Paul
Yay!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:49, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Isaac829 E-Mail  21:13, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Not even close.
 * Bud - 0% - It brought beneficial rain.
 * Carlotta - 0% - Meh.
 * Daniel - 0% - Missed all landmass.
 * Emilia - 0% - Doubt it.
 * Fabio - 0% - No damage as a TC.
 * Gilma - 0% - See Aletta.
 * Hector - 0% - No.
 * Ileana - 0% - From the start.
 * John - 0% - No.
 * Kristy - 0% - Per above.
 * Lane - 0% - Per above.
 * Miriam - 0% - Nope.
 * Norman - 0% - Per Carlotta.
 * Olivia - 0% - Per Lane.
 * Paul - ?

Mine:


 * Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but it had no impact on land.
 * Bud - 1% - Fun storm to follow, but very minimal damage.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Killed three people.
 * Daniel - 0% - Impressive major hurricane, but no.
 * Emilia - 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio - 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's it.
 * Gilma - 0% - See Fabio's section.
 * Hector - 1% - Minimal land impacts.
 * Ileana - 0% - See Fabio and Gilma's sections.
 * John - 1% - See Hector's section.
 * Kristy - 1% - See Hector and John's sections.
 * Lane - 0% - See Fabio, Gilma, and Ileana's sections.
 * Miriam - 0% - See Daniel and Emilia's sections.
 * Norman - 7% - Five people are currently missing.
 * Olivia - 0% - Epic, epic, epic fail.
 * Paul - TBA - Still Active

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Mine
 * Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.
 * Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.
 * Carlotta-15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying.
 * Daniel- 0%love you but no
 * Emilia 0% meh nothing just a cat 4 in here
 * Fabio 0 % just rain to LA and nothing more.
 * Gilma0% didn`t affect land.
 * Hector 0% First fail of the season pathetic
 * Ileana:0% good to watch but no
 * John0% and the first epic fail of the season has form and die
 * Kristy0% I give she was resilent over cold water
 * Lane?? we will see


 * Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement.
 * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you.
 * Carlotta - 25% - It caused 107 million in damage to Mexico, but that probrably isn't severe enough for retirement.
 * Daniel - 0% - Didn't affect any land.
 * Emilia - 0% - Strongest of the season, but never hit land
 * Fabio - Nothing to really say here.
 * Gilma - 0% - Became a hurricane, but nothing else.
 * Hector - 0% - No effects on land.
 * Ileana - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * John - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Kristy - 0% - Nothing much.
 * Lane - 0% - Not expected to hit land.
 * Miriam - 0% - Beame a major, but that's it.
 * Norman - 8% - He left some people missing and caused flood damage as well. Not that bad, but not negligible either.
 * Olivia - 0% - What's that now?
 * Paul - <5% - Doubt it already.

CobraStrike:


 * Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm.
 * Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement.

 CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

True Golden Blaze: True Golden Blaze 01:35, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta- Meh, no.
 * Bud - 1.5% Gave Mexico a little shock, but didn't do much.
 * Carlotta - 11.5% Carlotta's landfall did pull off some deaths, but not enough to get it's name crossed out.
 * Daniel - Will do nothing and die out in the cold Central Pacific waters.
 * Emilia - Some waves but no threat to land. At current intensifying rate, could get a Cat 3 or 4.

Well, it's time for mine I guess. Kiewii! 21:58, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Nope...
 * Bud - 0% - Nope...
 * Carlotta - 0% - Nope...
 * Daniel - 10% - For it's epicness
 * Emilia - 0% - Nope...
 * Fabio - 0% - Nope...
 * Gilma - 0% - Nope...
 * Hector - 0% - Nope...
 * Illeana - 0% - Nope...
 * John - 0% - Nope...
 * Kristy - 0% - Nope...
 * Lane - 1% - For it's coolness
 * Miriam - 10% - For it's epicness
 * Olivia - 0% - Unless it becomes a major hurricane...

Kiewii, are you sure about Bud and Carlotta? They had minimal damage. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:42, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Of course I'm sure. It is very obvious they will not be retired so there isn't any need for any percentages. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:16, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, I just wouldn't say 0% for Bud/Carlotta since they did affect land and did kill people. Not to say I think they will be retired, but I don't think they deserve a 0%. Ryan1000 17:53, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

​Simlover123 (talk) 03:15, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta: 0% - Absolutely no effects on land masses.
 * Bud: 3% - Some effects on Mexico
 * Carlotta: 5% - Killed two girls and slight damage.
 * Daniel: 0% - Only slight effects on Hawaii.
 * Emilia: 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio: 0% - Nothing to say.
 * Gilma: 0% - No land masses affected.
 * Hector: 0% - Fail.
 * Ileana: 0% - Didn't affect any land, but it was a hurricane.
 * John: 0% - Even more of a fail than Hector.
 * Kristy: 0% - Nothing.
 * Lane: 0% - See Ileana's section.
 * Miriam: 0% - Didn't do anything except for becoming a major.
 * Norman: 1% - Very minimal damage.
 * Olivia: 0% - I don't think so.

Ok, here's mine! (I'm Liz)
 * Aletta = -1/10. Hawaiian kid that lazes in the ocean.
 * Bud = 2/10. Well... He did brush up the Mexico coast...
 * Carlotta = 3/10. Carly. You did kill people, right? Carlotta: I didn't know that! -cries-
 * Daniel = 0/10. Expelliarmus! (fail.)
 * Emillia = 0/10. Aloha, Emillia! You did nothing, nothing, nothingggggg.
 * Fabio = 0/10. The Fab I Oh did nothing too.
 * Gilma = 0/10. Try again Gilma... you can do better.
 * Hector = 0/10. Hector, I know you were a crossover, but you just lazed.
 * Illeanna = 0.5/10. Just like another Beatriz...
 * john = -99999/10. F-A-I-L, you aint got no alibi... lol
 * Kristy = 0/10. She was john's lil sister!
 * lane = ??? Do I even know huh? Let's take da trip down memory lane
 * 188.223.248.201 19:31, September 3, 2012 (UTC)

Mid-season predictions
Entering the year, after over predicting the last two years, I set my exceptions moderate, with 13-8-4. After an active early July and the GFS showing a major surge in activity a few weeks ago that turned into three fails, I raised it to 18-9-4 (though I have a bias towards the EPAC) and I started getting really excited. I've lowered mine to 14-10-5. Despite there being an El Nino, it has that quiet feel, it has the feel of a dead center and a big quiet phase. With all of the recent 80 and 90% busts, I am starting to get frustrated with the EPAC. Thank goodness for HURDAT going back pre-1995, or I would have not survived the two seasons. At least 2009, 2008, and 2006-00 were decent.

Ill apologize for my rant above, I just needed to get it off my chest. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:25, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I'll go with 14-9-6. Honestly, we should've reached Illena (if those three busts were upgraded). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:53, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I say 14 to 16 name storms this basin has really come down from producing 18 to 21 name storms to 12to 14 really sad.*signs*Allanjeffs 14:15, July 30, 2012 (UTC)