Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
0/20. If anybody cares, Ramon is likely from this one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:17, September 29, 2017 (UTC)

The GFS has been very bullish with this one. The 18Z GFS run made this a 920 mb monster off South Mexico, and then took it into Baja in 222 hrs as a hurricane. The 00Z run showed a completely different track, showing a 960 mb hurricane make landfall on the Tehuantepec coast of Mexico. This could be one storm to watch out for. 182.58.52.164 04:42, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * The 06Z GFS now shows this SE of Manzanillo on day 9, with a track eerily reminiscent of the infamous Hurricane Patricia of 2015, while the ECMWF moves this out to sea where it dissipates on day 8. Hoping the ECMWF's solution plays out. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:35, September 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope it goes out to sea and doesn't follow a track towards Mexico. Anyway, it's up to 0/50 and Ramon is looking likely to form here. This could really be something to watch out for. I've thought of the name "Ramon" as an somewhat ominous storm name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:04, October 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/60. I'm kinda sure this is Ramon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:21, October 2, 2017 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Invested and now at 20/70. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:43, October 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * 48 hours is 40%, but 5 days has dropped to 60%. This drop in 5-day percentage may mean that environmental conditions could worsen and affect development in the long run (or any future land interaction could affect it instead). It doesn't directly mention that in the TWO though. If it becomes Ramon, I'm afraid that it might end up weak. I hope for a hurricane though as long as it steers clear of land. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:46, October 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 50/70. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:07, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Going rapidly now as it goes up to 70/80. Ramon should be coming by the next day. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:07, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 90/90, here comes Ramon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:18, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ramon
He's here. - Garfield

Based on the recent ASCAT pass, winds for the initial advisory have been estimated at 40 knots (45 mph) with an estimated central pressure of  1002 mbar (29.59 inches of Hg). Strong easterly shear is expected to affect Ramon, and no strenghtening is expected. Alternatively, it could head into Mexico and dissipate. This could fail big time, unless it survives the next 5 days, when the conditions are expected to be better, as shown by the HWRF. GFS and ECMWF show dissipation due to shear in ~36 hours. 182.58.66.191 12:23, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * It'll stay a TS for five days without intensifying to a hurricane according to forecast. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:25, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wind shear should inhibit development over the next 5 days and only very slight strengthening is forecast as a result. Also, a tropical storm watch has been issued for parts of southern Mexico. Hopefully it reaches at least 60 mph as it's moving away from land, and "Ramon" is such an ominous name for a hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:42, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nvm, it is getting less organized. Forecast now has Ramon dissipating by Friday. TD 16 in the Atlantic is our main focus anyway. What a waste of a name. 😑 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:55, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ramon
It weakened to a TD, 30 kn/1004 mbar. Forecast now shows Ramon dissipating by the next day. *facepalm* Oh what a disgraceful failure. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:59, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * *ABSOLUTE FACEPALM* This is a failure of epic proportions. I guess Ramon wants to join his siblings Jova '17, Tina '16, Rick '15, Failicia '15, Fausto '14, Karina '08, Pilar '87, and more in the Eastern Pacific Hall of Shame. Ramon, congrats, you suck so much that everyone who sees you is doing this. Perform better in 2023 please! 🤦‍ ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:13, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Should be dissipated on the next advisory. CIMSS has stopped issuing ADT estimates. 182.58.32.150 08:04, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Ramon
What a fail. 5th advisory was the last one. Not expected to regenerate. 182.58.32.150 09:36, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Ikr, this was an absolute failure. Hope Ramon can try again in 2023. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:16, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ikr, this was an absolute failure. Hope Ramon can try again in 2023. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:16, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * By all means of getting to Z...-- Isaac829  E-Mail   20:17, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * PULL AN OTIS PLEASE! 128.240.225.60 00:23, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, damn. ~ KN2731  {talk}  11:05, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Is there a reason why this season has been so inactive compared to the past few years? It seems like the Atlantic is the only basin allowed to have fun this year, lol. Jdcomix (talk) 14:02, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lol. The Atlantic is that active compared to other basins. Our main focus is Nate, which is currently threatening Louisiana and other states. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:44, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: 600 Miles South of Baja
0/20, upper-level winds will limit development until later on. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:48, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

I find it odd that NHC marked this with the lack of model support. We'll just have to see what happens. - Garfield


 * Up to 10/20. I hope it forms, as it's away from land. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:51, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 30/50. GFS forecasts another fail. EMCWF doesn't develop it. 182.58.42.166 15:17, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invested and 50/60. This better not be another fail. Future-Selma shall try her best. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:21, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

This WILL be a fail. Shear is forecast to strike on Monday. I don't think this will be anything great. --182.58.98.184 02:54, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

And suddenly its at 70/80. 182.58.81.105 08:24, October 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 80/80. I hope it only becomes a TD then. We don't need anymore names thrown down the trash. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:53, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * And I don't want any more fails because I hate them. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:55, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/70. Another fail? 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:12, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 60/60. Unless it suddenly organizes right now, it's a bust... Thankfully it doesn't appear that it is going to steal a name anymore. I guess Selma comes later :( ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:31, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * 50/50, but only a small increase in organization will result in a TD. I still hope it tries its best, but doesn't steal a name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:57, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30. Our next TC may have to wait. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:03, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: 1600 Miles East-Southeast of Hawaii
10/10, I doubt it's going to become much due to unfavorable upper-level winds. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:34, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 0/0, and upper-level winds and dry air will prevent any development from happening. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:04, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Near Central America
20/40. Maybe our long-awaited Selma could come out of this system. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:12, October 25, 2017 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and jumped to 40/60. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, October 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 60/70. This will be Selma. Hi!-68.106.0.77 21:25, October 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * 70/70. It could be a TD tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  23:45, October 26, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Selma
We literally have Selma right now. Skipped TD status, ahahaha! However don't laugh, this is coming right at el Salvador and will likely dissipate very quickly. Forecast to remain as a TS. Oooo! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 09:47, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Peak forecast is 50mph (80.4km/h). (Anyway, if only future Philippe in the Atlantic was named "Patty" instead...)   blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 09:49, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * This may be the 2nd storm on record to directly male landfall in El Salvador, next to TS Andres back in '97. Anyway, Selma is expected to remain as a TS. Hope that the precipitation isn't that heavy. (BTW Rara, Patty is actually included in next year's Atlantic name list.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:38, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * 93L is just north-east of Selma. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, October 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Doesn't appear that this'll be much different from Andres back in 1997, though Andres struck in early June and this is in late October. The last October storm to hit Central America from the EPac was TS Simone in 1968, which briefly hit Guatemala as a TS. Ryan1000 19:44, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Adv. 3: 40 mph/1005 mbars. Unlike Andres (which skirted along the southern Mexico and Guatemala coasts before El Salvador landfall), this is taking a straight-line track into El Salvador. Hopefully Selma is not a bad flood disaster, as even weak systems can be disastrous (23W of this year's WPac season being a good example, as well as Nate's formative stages in Central America). It seems like the EPac keeps feeding us weak failures... but Selma isn't an epic fail though due to it impacting Central America. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:50, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Selma
Weakened into a TD, 35 mph/1006 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:11, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Selma
Degenerated into a remnant low as torrential rains continue over Central America. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:36, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: West of Selma
0/20 as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I have a feeling that this will be a fishspinning Todd. Hopefully it's stronger than the previous 3 weak fails (Pilar to Selma) as long as it avoids land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:52, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/10. GFS brings it near Cabo as a TS.--182.58.32.248 05:52, October 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Todd will have to wait, if it even comes this year. Dropped off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  04:40, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Pacific is quiet again, after the two fails set by Ramon and Selma. The Pacific this year still has not reached about 100 units on the ACE, maybe because of the disgraceful failures like Adrian, Calvin, Greg, Jova, Pilar, Ramon, and Selma. Hi!-68.106.0.77 07:21, October 29, 2017 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
New system south of Guatemala has already been invested. At 10/20, but I don't see much coming out of this. Maybe could have a slight chance at becoming Todd though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  03:28, October 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * And off the TWO it goes...  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 00:43, October 31, 2017 (UTC) 


 * * Sigh* C'mon Todd. We're waiting for you... will you decide to form this year, or no? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  01:54, October 31, 2017 (UTC)

November
The basin is still disgracefully dead. Seriously, less than 100 ACE units is shameful for the EPac when there's already 18 named storms. And the CPac is even worse. At the very least one hurricane needs to form this month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:20, November 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would faint if no named storms formed in this basin. Remember 2014? Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:56, November 3, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: 900 Miles South of Baja
We finally have a new AOI here. It's at 0/20, but expected to enter more favorable conditions later on. Todd? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:34, November 10, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:


 * 1) Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
 * 2) Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
 * 3) Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
 * 4) Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.
 * 5) Eugene - 1% - Eugene defied the odds and became a major hurricane, albeit for a short timeframe. There was some heavy surf in Baja California and Southern California, and this caused hundreds of rescues. Fortunately, there were no fatalities reported, and damage should be minor at most.
 * 6) Fernanda - ~0% - Fernanda became a powerful major hurricane and the strongest of the year so far. Moreover, it managed to survive into the CPAC. However, the only impact from this hurricane whatsoever was some surf in Hawaii, and that was likely not memorable for them.
 * 7) Greg - 0% - Greg, despite not becoming hurricane, lasted much longer than I expected and even managed to survive into the CPAC. However, with no land effects, it will most likely be staying (unless some Diary of a Wimpy Kid fanatic requests that the WMO remove this name).
 * 8) Hilary - 1% - Impactwise, it does not appear that Hilary was significant for Mexico or anywhere else, albeit moving parallel to the former's coastline. Although I have added a grace percentage to account for the (unlikely) possibility that this name will be retired due to the connotation with Secretary Clinton, I would like to note that the names of other prominent politicians of the countries surrounding the EPAC (e.g. Enrique) have been on these naming lists since their inception back in the late 1970s/early 1980s and were not removed because they took power.
 * 9) Irwin - 0% - Irwin became decently strong in spite of its proximity to Hilary and lasted for a while as well. However, it will go down in history as just another harmless hurricane in the EPAC.
 * 10) Jova - ~0% - To be honest, if Jova had not formed from Franklin's remnants, I would not have even mentioned this system. Sure, it passed near Socorro Island, but absolutely no impact was reported whatsoever there or elsewhere.
 * 11) Kenneth - 0% - Well, what a stunt devil Kenneth was! Category 4 intensity was definitely beyond what the forecasts were calling for! Luckily, there is not much else to talk about regarding this hurricane. See you again in six years!

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 02:20, August 29, 2017 (UTC))

Retirements from Steve
Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.
 * EPac: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all Eastern Pacific storms.
 * CPac: Same as above, except for Central Pacific storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Possibly Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that the NHC may choose.
 * How Far Can This Season Go?: Lists the names of every potential storm that could form from here on out and the chances that they may form by the end of the season.
 * Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly.

EPac=
 * <font color="#0CF">Adrian : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F00">F - Fun fact: This was once forecast to be a formidable hurricane. An epic disgraceful fail, but saved from getting the "Z" classifications because it was the earliest named EPac storm ever.
 * <font color="#0CF">Beatriz : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#A00">Z - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
 * <font color="#0CF">Calvin : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#A00">Z - Same affected areas as Beatriz but was less damaging and no deaths occurred. Retirement's out of the question.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#8F0">C+ - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Somewhat exceeded expectations in terms of intensity but never made C2.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#068">A- - Fishspinner that barely made major hurricane status, but tried its best.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#03B">A - An amazing hurricane that got pretty strong and lasted 10 days. The grade is prevented from being "A+" or higher due to the fact that it had potential for C5 strength, but failed to reach it due to the ERCs it did.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F00">F - Despite continued forecasts for hurricane intensity, it failed to become one throughout its over a week of existing. Didn't even get into the "strong TS" category but I guess the longevity is a bonus.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#0B3">B - Didn't become a major despite predictions to do so, although it was somewhat resilient in the end, thus improving the grade from what it otherwise would have been. The name conflicts with 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. But Hillary is not the current president. As a result, the chances that it will receive the "Israel, Adolph, Isis" treatment are very small, almost nil. "Don" in the Atlantic has a much higher chance (20%) to receive that treatment because of Donald Trump, who is the current president.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#068">A- - Although weaker than Hilary, it was amazingly resilient.
 * <font color="#0CF">Jova : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞)  - What a joke.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Kenneth : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#00A">A++  - Fishspinner that exceeded every NHC prediction, so this gets a fantastic grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Lidia : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#F50">D - Flooding in Baja + 7 deaths give this a small chance. Also gave me some moisture and rain showers.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Max : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#0F0">B- - No deaths (thankfully) but damage totals are unknown. Gets some grading credit for intensifying to a hurricane much to everybody's surprise.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Norma : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#FB0">C- - Thankfully, it spared Baja from most impacts. It still caused minimal damage, but retirement won't happen.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Otis : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#006">A+++(x∞) - From initially forecast to be a complete flop to RI-ing to a C3, this is one of the most awesome storms I've ever seen! Also was a tropical depression for days upon days before it did this RI stunt.
 * <font color="#0CF">Pilar : <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#A00">Z - No deaths and probably minor damages, but could have been quite flooding for the area around Jalisco and Nayarit. This was also a weak fail that gets nothing better than "Z".
 * <font color="#0CF">Ramon : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) - Absolutely pathetic, and that's not saying enough. But it still passed near land, so it has a non-zero retirement chance.
 * <font color="#0CF">Selma : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#A00">Z - Another weak fail, but doesn't get the lowest grade because it struck El Salvador. According to Wikipedia's season effects table, no damage or deaths have yet been reported, but I don't buy the idea of a landfalling TS completely sparing destruction. So I gave a .1%.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#0CF">TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



CPac=
 * Nothing has formed here yet.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#0CF">TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



In summary...= Certainly Retired: None

Likely Retired: None

Possibly Retired: None

Probably Not Retired: Beatriz, Lidia, Max

Not Retired: Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, Jova, Kenneth, Norma, Otis, Pilar, Ramon, Selma

Projected retirement chances for currently active storms (could always change as time goes on):


 * No storms are currently active

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-85%
 * "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
 * "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
 * "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

Replacement Names= All storms in the categories (or projected to be in the categories) Possibly Retired, Likely Retired, and Certainly Retired are discussed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.


 * No storms have a decent chance to be retired yet.



How Far Can This Season Go?= EPac:


 * Chances that Todd will be used: <font color="#FF0">60% - The EPac is supposed to be getting less favorable for TC development from here on out. But there's still a month left of the season and 2 months left in the year, so I won't be surprised if Todd does come.
 * Chances that Veronica will be used: <font color="#0FF">20% - Knowing how quiet the EPac was in October, it's very likely that the relative quietness will continue for the rest of the year. Reaching Veronica is unlikely as a result.
 * Chances that Wiley will be used: <font color="#11E">2.5% - Will the EPac explode after a quiet October, and when the basin is supposed to be dying? Highly doubt it.
 * Chances that Xina will be used: <font color="#66A">0.00001% - Not happening.
 * Chances that York or anything beyond will be used: <font color="#779">~0% - For sure not happening.

CPac:

Other Info=
 * Chances that Walaka will be used: <font color="#0FC">25% - The CPac is less favorable in November and December than the summer and early autumn. There's still a slight chance a CPac storm could come but I doubt it. However, knowing what happened in 2010 with Omeka, anything can happen.
 * Chances that Akoni will be used: <font color="#33D">1% - Almost certainly won't happen.
 * Chances that Ema or anything beyond will be used: <font color="#779">~0% - Nope...
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
 * This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The colors for the 40-45 mph TS and the ≥185 mph C5 are made up and not part of the official color classification. The "65-70 mph TS" color is the same as the "Severe Tropical Storm" color used in basins such as the WPac.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:02, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
I'll do mine right now.

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , 7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#330000">99% , 100% , <font color="0000FF">TBA , Fail% , N/A  )

(Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , A+ , <font color="#00CC66">A , A- , <font color="00FFCC">B+ , B , <font color="00CCFF">B- , <font color="0099FF">C+ , C , <font color="3333CC">C- , D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z ) Undergoing grading.

<p style="font-weight:normal;">50% or more: Italics Ok, here we go: <p style="font-weight:normal;">That's all for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:54, August 11, 2017 (UTC)

(Last updated by: --68.106.0.77 03:14, November 3, 2017 (UTC))

<p style="font-weight:normal;">Formerly: 70.190.5.175

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : 0% - Does get credit for being the earliest EPac storm on record. Multiple forecasts predicted Adrian to become a hurricane, and it didn't even become a 50 mph tropical storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#669">1% - When it comes to retirement, Beatriz doesn't even come close to the snubs. I wouldn't even give this more than a 1% chance of retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Calvin almost fizzled out before landfall, but there was minimal damage. This will be coming back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#889">0.01% - Dora caused some minor damage. Dora didn't impress me, but that's just my opinion.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : 0% - Eugene defied forecasts, and became a major hurricane...barely. I feel like Eugene could've done better. Eugene stayed out in the open waters, so he will be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#889">0.01% - The remnants of Fernanda struck Hawaii, and that doesn't count as much.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : 0% - Failicia 2.0.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : 50% - Hilary was forecast to become a major multiple times, and it never did. However, with political issues, Hilary could be retired this coming spring. It is more likely to happen to Hilary because the EPac is the only one who gives the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment. I think that this and Don could be retired.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : 0% - Out in the ocean. I doubt this will go.

Raindrop's Retirements
Adrian: 0%, grade <font color="#F50">D - Extra credit for becoming the earliest tropical storm in the EPAC proper, minus three letter grades for being dissipated when it was forecast to be a 100 mph storm. Seriously, what was that?

Beatriz: <font color="#889">0.03%, grade <font color="#F00">F - A weak TS that made landfall in Mexico. It will be back in 2023 since Mexico has never retired a storm that has done such little damage. It doesn't get a Z as it still formed relatively early and caused impacts.

Calvin: Whatever the chance of winning the lottery is%, grade <font color="#A00">F- - It formed. It hit land. It died. It did not do much. It failed. It does not get a Z as it caused impacts.

Dora: 0%, grade <font color="#8F0">C+ - Just an average hurricane that formed, strengthened, peaked, weakened, and died. It did look pretty good at peak intensity. It gets a slightly better grade than an average "C" grade because it was the first hurricane of the season. It caused no impacts of significance.

Eugene: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - A fishspinner that did make major status, barely. Therefore it gets an A, barely. Besides the fact that it strengthened more than expected, Eugene followed a rather straightforward path from formation to dissipation, which does not help its grade. No impacts = no retirement.

Fernanda: 0%, grade <font color="#00F">A+ - Fernanda was an amazing and beautiful storm that did not hit land. Its sudden RI to category 4 status was quite cool, and although it did not reach category 5 status, it gets an A plus due to its rather long lifespan and slight resilience when it was weakening.

Greg: 0%, grade <font color="#F80">D+ - Greg ended up underperforming forecasts in the end, but did have some interesting aspects to its life. (Most notably when it went from looking like it was going to strengthen to having an exposed center :P) Greg did briefly hit 60 mph before that, and that along with its long life give it an ok grade.

Hilary: 10%, grade <font color="#0B3">B - Hilary fell short of expectations, just like in the election, by not becoming a major when it was forecasted to for a long time. It still became a decent hurricane, and its brief restrengthening when it was over cold waters brings up its grade quite a bit. It gets a significant but small shot at retirement due to the name's relation to the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Irwin: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - Irwin was originally slow to strengthen, getting named while still having an exposed center. During its pretty long life, Irwin would always find a way to do just a little more than forecasts predicted, by strengthening to 90 mph and then near the end of its life refusing to die. The only time Irwin was not resilient was during its sudden rapid weakening from 90 to 50 mph in under 24 hours. The fact that Irwin was resilient in the end makes up for that. I give Irwin an A- as it was a lot of fun to track and looked quite pretty at times.

Jova:  0%, grade <font color="#600">Z-  - An epic fail, didn't even stay at TS strength for 1 day. The only reason it doesn't get the lowest grade is because it was never supposed to be strong in the first place.

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Adrian - 0.05% - that .05% is for Adrian being the earliest forming storm in the Eastern Pacific proper (excl. Central Pacific)
 * Beatriz - 4% - minimal impact, though there were a number of fatalities.
 * Calvin & Dora - 0% - see you both in 2023.
 * Eugene - 1.5% - for being the first major of the season. Will be back in 2023.
 * Fernanda - 2.5% - for being the first Category 4 hurricane of the season; also expected to be back in 2023.
 * Greg & Irwin - 2% - although weaker than Eugene and Fernanda, they were fun to track because of their relatively long lives. Both will be back in 2023 though.
 * Hilary - 3% - If we will only consider its actual impact(s), Hilary will be back in 2023. However, I am not sure if that will happen, given the political situation right now. While it may not get retired, but this may be removed (due to the name being very similary to Hillary Clinton, with the exception of its spelling of course). May become Adolph/Israel/Isis 4.0 (along with Don in the Atlantic).

More to follow.

Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Time to toss in my two cents: Ryan1000 22:45, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 0% - A rare pre-season storm, in fact the earliest ever in the East Pacific proper (up to 140W), but it didn't affect land, so, see ya in 2023.
 * Beatriz - 3% - Gets credit for its minor effects in Mexico, like in 2011, but it won't be retired.
 * Calvin - 1% - A little less severe than Beatriz.
 * Dora - 1% - It didn't make landfall, but its outer rainbands caused some damage to Mexico.
 * Eugene - 0% - It did cause some swells in southern California that prompted water rescues, but no one was killed and there was no damage, so Mr. Krabs will be back again in 2023.
 * Fernanda - 0% - A powerful and long-lived major hurricane, the second-southernmost on record in the EPac after Olaf in 2015, but she caused no impacts on land, so she'll be back again in 2023.
 * Greg - 0% - Lasted a while, but never became a hurricane, so meh.
 * Hilary - 0% - A failed intensity forecast, just like a failed presidential campaign last year. I personally doubt Hilary (and Don) will be removed from the naming lists just because they so happened to be the names of the two main U.S. presidential candidates in the 2016 election; if Hilary and/or Don are removed for that reason, I won't count them as retirements (due to impact) as neither storm was notable in that regard.
 * Irwin - 0% - Another fishie, but at least it became a hurricane.
 * Jova - 0% - Came out of Franklin in the Atlantic, but it was weak and didn't affect land itself, so no retirement.
 * Kenneth - 0% - Impressive intensity streak, continuing the category 4 incarnations of this name every time it was used in the EPac, but like the others, it didn't hit land, so it won't be retired.
 * Lidia - 3% - Wasn't much different from Beatriz. 7 deaths, some damage, but not enough.
 * Max - 10% - Minor damage in Mexico with two deaths, but it was overshadowed by the earthquake that struck them.
 * Norma - 0% - Became a hurricane but fortunately remained at sea.
 * Otis - 0% - Managed to intensify to a major hurricane after struggling for days as a depression, but still, a fish is a fish.
 * Pilar - 1% - Minor flooding in Mexico.
 * Ramon - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Selma - ?? - Still active, but could hit El Salvador.


 * Um... what? 2024? You mean 2023 since this list rotates every 6 years. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:39, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Welp, looks like I thought I'm living in next year for some reason...fixed the years, my bad. Also, sorry I hadn't updated this in a while, the Atlantic has been grabbing my attention more often. Ryan1000 19:50, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Rah's predictions!
blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 16:47, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Adrian: 0%, forgettable.
 * Beatriz: 1%, caused a bit of havoc in Mexico but that was just another weather event.
 * Calvin: 0%, drop us some sick beats in 2023, Harris!
 * Dora: 0%, coming back to explore the East Pacific in 2023.
 * Eugene: 0%, the crab may have reached major hurricane status, but won't be retired.
 * Nanda: 0%, AMAZING FISH STORM, probably the highlight of the season so far, but PLEASE, DO THAT AGAIN IN 2023!
 * Greg: 0%, Cook us something tasty next time, Chef Wallace! That wasn't good enough.
 * Hilary: 10%, maybe for the Clinton memes on Twitter (alongside the Trump memes in the Atlantic) but maybe not, to be honest.
 * Irwin: 0%, the crocodile hunter will be coming back.
 * JoJo: 100% 0%, WE LOVE YOU JOJO! YOU WERE THE BEST STORM EVER, MATE! -sarcasm intensifies-
 * Kenny: 0%, Fun storm to track! Well done Kenny for always being a (friendly, fishie) category 4! Now, can you get to category 5 in 2023? Please stay nice!
 * Lyd: 5%, just another weather event in Mexico. Beatriz 2.

Stacy's retirement predictions
Well, time to toss in my two cents and predict retirements.
 * Adrian 0%:, Pretty unusual storm that formed in May. I did not follow the NHC advisorys so I did not know that Adrian was forecast to become a Cat 2, I was horrified when I learned about that.


 * Betraz 3%, Just a weather event in Mexico.


 * Calvin 1%, Nah.


 * Dora 0%, The first hurricane's name will be back in 2023.


 * Eugene 0%, Awesome fish spinner that became a major.


 * Fernanda 0%, Good job, Fernanda, good job! You will be back in 2023!


 * Greg 00000.1%, Although never becoming a hurricane, Greg was pretty great in my opinion.


 * Hilary 50%, Well, gosh freakin' darn it Hilary, I wanted you to be a major! This name may get the Aldolph/Israel/Isis treatment.


 * Irwin 0%, the storm that could will be back in 2023.


 * Jova 0%, What a disaster for Twitter and Tumblr!


 * Kenneth 0%, I LOVE YOU KENNY, YOU WERE THE BEST STORM OF THE SEASON, MATE!


 * Lidia 5%, Nah.


 * Max 3%, See Calvin and Lidia.


 * Norma 0%, A hurricane forecast to hit land that turned out to sea is awesome for me.


 * Otis 0%, UHHHH.... WHAT HAPPENED WITH OTIS? 😐

182's Retirement Predictions
Retirement - Fail%, 0%, 1%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100%

Grades (Ascending order) - Z-, Z, F-, F, E, D, C, C+, B-, B, B+, A-, A, A+, A++, A++++ Pilar - Failed, but still caused some rain - 1% - Z--

Ramon - No comments - Fail% - "java.lang.ArithmeticException : / by 0" is the grade for this.

Post-Season Changes
Made a table to make it easier to compare changes. So far Beatriz and Calvin's TCRs are out, with Calvin getting a small upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:56, September 7, 2017 (UTC)

This is a nice addition. Will this be done in the Atlantic as well? Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:45, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll probably copy it over when the next Atlantic TCR appears. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:42, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ryan already made a table about that in the Atlantic. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:11, September 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Eugene's TCR is out, and I've decided to link the TCR in the "name" column for ease of access. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:59, October 21, 2017 (UTC)