User blog:CobraStrike/Subtropical Storm Beryl (May 26)

Subtropical Storm Beryl Latest Advisory SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION -- LOCATION...31.5N 76.6W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Path
My path forecast for Beryl is in agreement with the National Hurricane Center and most other models, which suggest a general WSW movement before landfalling on the FL/GA border. After that the storm is expected to curl back out and re-enter the Atlantic as it moves NE.

Intensity
I predict that Beryl will peak with 50 mph (45 kt) winds and make landfall at that intensity.

Currently
Currently Beryl remains a subtropical system, but over the course of the afternoon and evening it has been undergoing a tropical conversion phase, with development of a cold core and convection flaring closer to the center. However, the convection remains very shallow and thus convection could be considered "weak." The dry air plauging it during its duration is being shut out.