Forum:2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Future start
...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:21, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Btw, Fiji Met's website got a new design :D Isaac829  E-Mail  00:15, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

Betting pools
Finally made them. We don't have a first storm formation section though, because we made them too late. Anja already formed. =( Ryan1000 17:13, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

Ask Lolita! (South Pacific)
Lolita would love to hear your questions about the 2012-13 SPAC season. Just set them out like this:

Q) When will hurricane Annais dissipate?

Thanks!

Haley
Q) Will Tropical Cyclone Haley cross into the Australian region and make a landfall over Queensland? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:25, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

Ask Kenneth! (Australian Region)
Kenneth would love to hear your questions about the 2012-13 Australia season. Just set them out like this:



Q) When will hurricanes Narelle and Peta make landfall?

Thanks!

Rusty
Q): Will Tropical Cyclone Rusty become a severe tropical cyclone? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:29, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

Rusty hasn't formed yet. It's next on the list, though. Fpschmitt1 (talk) 00:35, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

Oh, I know. But when it does, I would love to hear Kenneth's prediction for the storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:32, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

OOOOO! TYVM for all the great responses! I think, IMO, (K)Rusty the Clown is going to be like the next Narelle. A category 5. Like Yassie though. Very bad. FROM KENNY

90S.INVEST
Nice way to start the season. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:57, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

This shouldn't become anything, but assuming it can become a moderate tropical storm, it will be named Anais. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, October 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * And it's gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:24, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
New invest. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:24, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 01
First disturbance of the year, and shaping up to be the first storm of the year. But... welcome to the pre-season club. Kiewii! 10:12, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

What is it with off-season storms (Kuena, 29P, and now this?)? Anyway, I hope for a MTS. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:40, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 01
Strengthening still, could be Anais in 12 hours. Now also expected to become an STS. Kiewii! 12:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Now TC 01S per JTWC... they show it strengthening to just below hurricane strength. Kiewii! 16:23, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

This is quite soon; the SHem doesn't usually start until November 15. Personally, I think this should be TD 01S, but MFR doesn't call it that, so it'll stay as TD 01. Ryan1000 18:55, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Now named Anais. 112.201.209.72 10:57, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Anais
45 mph/993 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Strengthening at a somewhat rapid pace per JTWC. Dvorak is at 65 kt, so shouldn't be too surprised to see it at hurricane status by 03z. Kiewii! 14:45, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Anais
Really intensifying now... 45 kt to 65 kt. Kiewii! 18:57, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

This thing looks like a major hurricane already. Madagascar could possibly get a nasty pre-season surprise from this. I think this might have a chance at cat 4 in the next day or two. Then again, this early in the season the jet stream tends to veer these storms south, away from land. It's still a beautiful storm to see. Ryan1000 19:28, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like Anja I think of 2011 or 2010 ? just bigger Anais may become a cat or 4 before weakenig I think a 3 will be her peak.Allanjeffs 21:52, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais
Here we go...Ryan1000 16:09, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

It might become a Category 4 (on the SSHS). Isaac829 E-Mail  16:16, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

Has there been a tropical cyclone this intense so early in the season? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:29, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

As far as I know, it never happened here before. However, the SPac had a similar storm several years ago in October 2006 (2006-2007 season) with tropical cyclone Xavier, a powerful category 4 that tore up a few islands in the SPac in October. The Australian region has never seen something like this so early, but Cyclone Guba of November 2007 did cause severe flooding in Papua New Guinea, and it was a very unusual storm to exist in that area of Australia at that time of year. While it never got past category 1 intensity, it's their closest example to this. Ryan1000 17:13, October 14, 2012 (UTC)

I found out Anais is indeed the earliest SWIO ITC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:20, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (2nd time)
It's weakening fast.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:42, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Anais
It is, actually. Kiewii! 18:46, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Anais
Quite a nice start to the season. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:08, October 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 02
It probably shouldn't be named. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:55, November 15, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Boldwin
This one sprug up quite fast. A little more than a month after Anais, this storm might become a C1 soon enough. But not sure about MH strength from this one. Ryan1000 15:36, November 24, 2012 (UTC)

I doubt C1 from this storm. Isaac829 E-Mail  16:18, November 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * I actually think it will become atleast a C1. From what I'm gathering from satellite estimates it's already up to 60 knts. Supportstorm (talk) 18:15, November 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'd say Boldwin will become a tropical cyclone (on the SWI scale). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:13, November 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * CAN HE BE A MAJOR STORM?? :O i see him becoming a major? minor c2 is okay too! (why are storms referred to it when boldwin is a guy's hurricane tho? isnt it he?) lol so i see baldwin gettin to major.? 188.223.248.201 23:39, November 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually is weakeing now I was going to make the heading with these storm but it was early in the morning and I was sleepy. there is also an invest in the WPAC that should become something imo.Allanjeffs 04:34, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin
Per what Allan said.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  16:58, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like I (and Liz) totally overestiamted Boldwin. It wasn't that bad of a fail, but it still will be long forgotten impactwise. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:47, November 25, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ex-Boldwin
It was that bad of a fail. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:02, November 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04
Seems the SWIO is the only SHem basin that's been alive thus far. New depression there now. Claudia, anyone? Ryan1000 15:09, December 6, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia
Now upgraded to a moderate tropical storm, and named Claudia. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, December 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Intensifying quickly... Ryan1000 02:53, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Here we go again... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:35, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Could be an ITC soon enough. Now a cat 3 up to 115 mph, or 100 mph on MFR's 10-minute scale. At least it's far from land, like Anais was. Ryan1000 17:11, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Now an ITC.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:57, December 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Claudia (2nd time)
Back to a TC. Isaac829 E-Mail  03:17, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Claudia
Down and out. Ryan1000 18:23, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 05
New one in the SWIO, likely to become Dumile before heading seaward, maybe as a cat 1/2. Ryan1000 05:11, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Dumile
Strange name. Isaac829 E-Mail  07:12, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Dumile is expected to become a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:02, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Dumile
Now a severe tropical storm... STO12 (talk) 19:45, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

70 mph/975 mb (a Category 1 hurricane (JTWC) with a Category 2 pressure!). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:50, January 3, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Dumile
Long dead. Ryan1000 14:53, January 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 06
New one in the SWIO, but probrably won't do much. Might become Emang before it dies well away from land. Ryan1000 00:08, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Emang
Now a MTS. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:48, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

It is expected to become a tropical cyclone (the intensity rating, FYI). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:01, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Emang
Done and accounted for without ever becoming a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:02, January 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Just want to point out that the JTWC is still tracking Emang. Supportstorm (talk) 01:48, January 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * JTWC is still writing advisories. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:25, January 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now it is gone for good. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, January 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07
Okay, it looks like the South-West Indian Ocean is awake after taking a short nap from tropical disturbances. Does anyone currently predict a Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

I'm actually calling at least a category one out of this before it runs into Madagascar on Tuesday. I think our first landfalling cyclone of the SWIO is about to unfold. Ryan1000 21:21, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

Peressure slightly up to 1000 mbar, but the RSMC La Réunion still expects a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Felleng
Now named. However, drastic change in track forecast, now it's expected to move south before it ever reaches Madagascar. Ryan1000 21:48, January 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * I gotta felleng, that this storm is gonna be a good good storm. TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT, HE IS GOING TO BE A CATEGORY 4! (That's my hypothesis, I see him becoming an intense hurricane. Oof!) Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 23:13, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
New one in the AUS region, first of their season but likely not going to affect land. Ryan1000 03:14, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Currently expected to parallel the entire western Australian coast as a Category 1 (AUS scale) without making a landfall, staying away from any big harm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:00, December 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * That's good to hear, people. Then the Aussies don't have to worry about Mitch, don't they? Unlike the one in 1998... (I WAS BORN IN 1998 XD) I think he is going to be a tiny baby storm though. :o Princess cadance pixel trot by klopp22-d4zfuk2.gif]][[File:Mlp.png Raraah, Awesome Pony Mlp.png[[File:Princess cadance pixel trot by klopp22-d4zfuk2.gif]] 19:15, December 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Actually, gale force winds are already extending slightly over 100 miles from Mitchell's center in its southeastern quadrant, but I do not know what an Australian region cyclone's average gale diameter is, so it's not exactly a "tiny" storm. Also, Mitchell's current maximum sustained winds is 40 knots and its current central pressure is 994 hPa.  Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:48, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Mitchell has dissipated off the coast of Australia.... STO12 (talk) 03:22, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

Well, that was SO much faster than I expected it to dissipate. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:28, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

I was really surprise too.Allanjeffs 19:05, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

05U.NARELLE
This could possibly become Narelle later this week. STO12 (talk) 04:13, January 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Now named. And Narelle could be a very powerful storm when it nears Western Australia. JTWC forecast currently takes it to a strong cat 4 on SSHS (cat 5 on AUS scale) before passing very close to, or making landfall at, the Exmouth area at Cape Range. Ryan1000 14:53, January 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * While yes, this storm will become powerful, I doubt this storm will make landfall as a tropical cyclone. I am however more concerned about the future monster storm that will be coming after this one. Supportstorm (talk) 01:15, January 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * We might see another big storm, or we might not. GFS sees another storm becoming as powerful as Narelle in several days, and makes that storm (Oswald) hitting the Port Headland area at about 240 hours. But that's really far in advance, too far for me to believe right now. The ECMWF doesn't see anything coming behind Narelle, and they're a little slower to kill her off of Australia's West Coast. Ryan1000 05:03, January 9, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Narelle has been upgraded to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. It is currently expected to become a Category 4 storm (AUS scale) dangerously close to the coast. Carlos or Tracy 2.0? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:40, January 9, 2013 (UTC)

Doubt it. What I am looking foward is the possible formation of Andrea in the Atlantic as the Gfs and Euro has been showing in the past 2 or 3 runs and it looks like some other models may come aboard. hope it happen have your finger cross people.Allanjeffs 20:40, January 10, 2013 (UTC)

Narelle is up to a Category 4 tropical cyclone. I highly doubt 2013 will start like 1978 or 1938 did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:21, January 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * And now a category 5 cyclone. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:41, January 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Narelle now weakening... STO12 (talk) 17:38, January 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Is narelle heading to perth ppl? btw, did she do katrina like damage NARELLE IS DEFO GUNNA GET RETIRED, NAUGHTY GIRL! Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 20:43, January 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * She hasn't gotten there yet -_- By the time it hits Perth, it wouldn't cause a lot of damage. -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:58, January 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * @Liz: Have you even heard of Tracy or Yasi? They are more like the AUS region equivleants of Katrina. And Isaac, even if Narelle does not cause a lot of damage, Australia retires storms that just bring rainfall to them, so it could still get retired. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:16, January 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * I've heard of Yassi and Tracy but IDK much about them tho :o Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 21:20, January 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * Personally I don't like how Australia retires so many names, but I won't argue to them about it if they have different points of view from us. Even so, they could get something bigger in the next several days, as the GFS suggests. Ryan1000 00:08, January 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Narelle is barely a severe tropical cyclone now. Also, it is forecast to miss Perth now. However, it could still make a landfall in the extreme southwestern corner of Australia (but the BoM expects it to be a tropical low by that time). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:53, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Doesn't even make it to Perth.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:50, January 14, 2013 (UTC)

Darwin Tropical Low
I don't think I can say much about this low other than the fact its current barometric pressure is 1004 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:40, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

This is the big storm GFS was foreseeing earlier. They take this storm (future Oswald) becoming almost as powerful as Narelle, but making landfall as a powerful cat 3/4 instead of missing land. Port Headland should keep their eyes out for this one. Ryan1000 14:01, January 14, 2013 (UTC)

Hmm...Apparently GFS overhyped this one. Now it's probrably not going to become much at all. It might not even become Oswald. Ryan1000 14:25, January 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * I was thinking the same thing. At least now Western Australia can enjoy the rainfall without a destructive cyclone making landfall. Supportstorm (talk) 21:42, January 15, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Low
The low lost tropical characteristics. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:43, January 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Low 07U
We got another tropical low hovering off Australia's eastern coast. Anyone predict a named storm out of this? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, January 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Oswald
We have Oswald. Currently forecast to head inland as a TS, not becoming a cat 1 cyclone, but it could be a heavy rainmaker.

Oswald probably will only cause as much damage as Narelle did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:05, January 21, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Oswald
And...it is gone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:07, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Maybe for not long I think it would regain tc status very soon.Allanjeffs 20:50, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Low 08U
And we have got another low. Tropical Cyclone Peta, anyone? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:05, January 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * GOOD ONE ANDY. XD I think that this storm will campain for animal rights and pretend to be Josh Hutcherson. Oh, and by the way, I am probably seeing PETA Mellark becoming probably a cat 3/4? Will he make a landfall? I think so, Western Aussie. Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 22:50, January 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * 08U is just offshore the Western Australia coast, but it's expected to parallel the coast for a day before making landfall. Given that it's over relatively favorable wind shear and over the world's warmest waters at this time of year, a cat 1 or 2 cyclone, perhaps stronger than that, is not impossible from 08U. Ryan1000 02:40, January 22, 2013 (UTC)

I hope this storm does not become too bad. Also, to clarify, the name Peta is being used as a feminine name is this situation because it falls between (Lee Harvey) Oswald and (The) Rusty (Nail), both male names, on the naming list of the Australian region. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:07, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Peta
And unbelievably, it's gone! PETA members will feel grateful, but not Josh Hutcherson fans. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F
This one is out there too. It's a ways away from 04f, but either way, we should see one, or two, named storms in the next few days. Probrably not 03F though, this one's falling apart fast. Ryan1000 14:46, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Dead now. Oh well... Ryan1000 18:21, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F

 * Have a feeling this will became the SP first significant cyclone. It recently acquired an eye which could signal intensification soon. Supportstorm (talk) 03:08, December 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * GFS sees this storm heading in an erratic direction near Fiji, but not making landfall there. The extratropical remnants, according to the model, could hit New Zeland, but hopefully not that strong when it gets there. Ryan1000 14:46, December 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Evan
Not a cat 2 cyclone on the Australian scale.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:52, December 12, 2012 (UTC)

Its giving a direct hit to the Samoas and could be a landfall at any moment!Allanjeffs 00:55, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Unfortunately, Evan is now forecast to peak as a cat 3 (on SSHS). Worse, GFS takes the eyewall of this storm passing right over Fiji, which makes for a potentially devastating scenario for storm surge and high winds. It's likely going to pass over the Samoan Islands as a category 2-3 storm (likely to intensify soon), but forecast takes it to 125 mph. They should be preparing right now, this is pretty early to see a storm this powerful. Ryan1000 12:30, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan
Evan is now a category 3 severe tropical cyclone on Australia's scale, or a C2 on SSHS. The American Samoa Capital, Apia, got a 12-15 foot storm surge from Evan. Two people were killed thus far, Fiji's up next. Ryan1000 18:21, December 13, 2012 (UTC)

Moving away from Samoa now...hopefully it'll begin to weaken so no more damage is felt. STO12 (talk) 01:28, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Three deaths...next up on Evan's impact list: Tonga. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Err..no, Andrew. More of Fiji. Never mind. Isaac829 E-Mail  06:06, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Fiji is getting brushed harshly by Evan right now, though it's currently expected to go around the Island and not make a landfall there. Still, they're gonna get hit pretty hard and by now, Evan will probrably be retired. Ryan1000 16:43, December 16, 2012 (UTC)


 * Landfall is likely within the next few hours. I agree with Evan being retired now. Supportstorm (talk) 00:17, December 17, 2012 (UTC)

I'm guessing the basin is making up for the lack of storms from last year, Evan is a beast.... O_O STO12 (talk) 04:46, December 17, 2012 (UTC)

Last year's SPac season was incredible. Only three storms existed that whole year, tying 2003-04 for the lowest number of named storms on record (Jasmine, Cyril, and Daphne in 2011-12 >> Heta, Ivy, and Grace in 2003-04). Anyeay, with Evan, it's incredible! 145 mph winds (1-min) and 945 mb? I see a definite retiree candidate! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:00, December 17, 2012 (UTC)

Technically the 2011-12 SPac season and 2003-04 SPac season had only 2 storms in each season, in terms of number of storms that formed there. Jasmine originally formed in the Australian region but crossed into the SPac region, while Cyril and Daphne were the only storms that formed there. In the same way, Heta and Ivy were the only storms that formed in the SPac in 2003-04, but Grace crossed into the region from Australia's area of responsibility. Also, in terms of notability, Heta+Ivy >> Cyril+Daphne. Ryan1000 16:38, December 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Evan (2nd time)
It's becoming extratropical.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  00:51, December 19, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Evan
That was fast. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:41, December 19, 2012 (UTC)

Seems Evan waas one of Fiji's biggest storms, and considered the worst to hit the Samoan Islands since Val in December 1991. He's gone. Ryan1000 21:09, December 19, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Freda
SPac's picking up steam again, now likely to become a C2 or 3. Currently moving away from the Slomon Islands and expected to move to the west of New Caledonia. Ryan1000 03:14, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Freda is poised to move into the Australian region. It's less than a degree away from qualifying as an Australian region tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:56, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda
With current maximum sustained winds of 80 knots and a minimum pressure of 955 hPa, Freda is taking off like its predecessor Evan. As it currently affects the Solomon Islands with torrents of rain, we are poised to have another desructive storm and the second hypothetical retiree in the making. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:04, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Wow, look at what has happened in the past in the past few hours. Talk about caffeine in the ocean...Freda's already a Category 4 tropical cyclone (AUS scale), packing those 90 knot winds. Not only that, Freda's rivaling its predecessor Evan by 3 mb (Evan's 943 mb pressure vs. Freda's 940 mb pressure)! This means Freda is the strongest storm of the season!!! I hope this doesn't get any worse... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:34, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

It's still expected to miss New Caledonia to the southwest while it heads out to sea, but like Evan, it could also pass close enough to severely affect the island. Pretty strong, but I don't expect this one to be as bad as Evan. Ryan1000 01:07, December 31, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Freda (2nd time)
Falling apart... Ryan1000 05:11, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 45 mph/989 hPa, making it a Category 1 tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:06, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Disturbance Freda
Freda, a 991 mb extratropical cyclone, has degenerated. Amazingly, no damages or deaths have yet been reported. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:50, January 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 06F
Briefly existing in the SPac, but won't become much of anything. Ryan1000 05:11, January 1, 2013 (UTC)

Long gone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:01, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07F
Another one, but like 06F, not expecting much out of this. Maybe could become Garry as it heads southeast out to sea. Ryan1000 19:54, January 12, 2013 (UTC)

Gone. Actually, this storm never went beyond tropical disturbance status. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:01, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08F
This depression may become a Category 1 tropical cyclone (AUS scale) in the next couple days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:01, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

Will he make a landfall in Sydney  Raraah, Awesome Pony 18:07, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

I do not think so, because the depression is moving southeastward away from Australia. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:38, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

Weakening slightly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:02, January 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 09F
And we have got another new disturbance. I do not know what it will end up causing... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:02, January 15, 2013 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Pretty disorganized atm, don't expect this to become much. Ryan1000 14:25, January 15, 2013 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">


 * This one looks like it will become a tropical cyclone and stay out to sea for most of it's life. Following it might be two other cyclones that directly impact Fiji, but we'll see whether the model verifies... Supportstorm (talk) 01:37, January 20, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09F
Now upgraded to a 35 mph/999 mb tropical depression. Also, the JTWC has initiated advisories on the depression (if there is an error in the way I put this depression in the active storms template, please fix it). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, January 21, 2013 (UTC)

JTWC calls it 10P. Isaac829 E-Mail  01:41, January 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Garry
Now named Garry. This one should head southeast and become a cat 1 cyclone while it passes through the French Polynesia archapelago. Ryan1000 18:10, January 21, 2013 (UTC)

Now Garry is up to a Category 2 tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:07, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Garry's pressure is up to 987 mb from 985 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Garry
And the third severe tropical cyclone is upon us. P.S. This is slightly off-topic, but when was the last time the first three named tropical cyclones of a South Pacific cyclone season became severe tropical cyclones? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:45, January 24, 2013 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">1999-2000 was the last time it happened, but there were many disturbances and depressions that intervened, and 2 of them were only cat 1's (cat 3 severe on FMS scale). Gary seems to be strengthening a bit, up to cat 2, and he's likely to weaken from here while passing through the Cook Islands and French Polynesia. Ryan1000 17:27, January 25, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Garry (2nd time)
After peaking as a Category 2 tropical cyclone (SSHS), Garry has collapsed into a Category 1 tropical cyclone (AUS scale). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Garry
Goodbye, Garry. Now you're just a 997 mb remnant low. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10F
And we have got the tenth disturbance of the 2012-13 South Pacific cyclone season. Tropical Cyclone Haley, anyone? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

It's slightly stronger (the pressure has dropped a bit from 1002 mbar to 1001 mbar). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't expect much out of either this or the other disturbance for the time being. Maybe become Haley, but nothing else. Ryan1000 21:54, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbacne 11F
Yes, we have got yet another one. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
This may be a bit too early, but Evan does have a reasonable chance of retirement. Here are my retirement candidates (remember, SWIO storms are NOT retired):

AUS:


 * 1) Mitchell - 0% - Mitchell was such a short-lived, weak, harmless storm there is pretty much no chance of retirement, even by Australian region standards.
 * 2) Narelle - 5% - Narelle did bring some wave action to Northwest Australia, but I still doubt it will get retired.
 * 3) Oswald - 1% - Oswald did not even cause as much damage as Narelle did, so no.
 * 4) Peta - 1% - See Oswald's section.

SPAC: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, December 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Evan - 90% - Because the SPac is extremely slacky at retirement standards, Evan is most likely going, especially if it caused over $100 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 2) Freda - 30% - Well, it did affect some SPac islands, but the damage was not too bad.
 * 3) Garry - 10% - I don't think I can really give Garry anything higher than this because no damage or deaths reports have come out yet.

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I normally would discourage making this section so early, but since Evan has a reasonable chance of being retired, I wouldn't be bad with it now. I think he will be retired...The SPac and AUS region have amongst the lowest retirement standards of any basin that retires names. The lowest ever for any place is the EPac, since Mexico rarely retires names and hurricanes rarely hit Hawaii. Ryan1000 14:51, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">He is almost 90% gone in my opinion. they even retire storms that only make 1 million dollar in damage.Allanjeffs 18:32, December 15, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine:

AUS: SPAC: Isaac829 E-Mail  04:15, December 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Mitchell - 0% - Fail.
 * Evan - 70% - Tons of damage.
 * Freda - ?

Mine:

AUS: SPAC: STO12 (talk) 03:29, December 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Mitchell: 0% Mitchell dissipated far from land.....
 * Evan: 80% or more, Evan is most likely being retired...
 * Freda: TBA - Still active

Ryan Grand has spoken:

Australia: South Pacific: Ryan1000 14:25, January 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Mitchell - 0% - Australia may have the most generous track record of retiring names, but even they'd know better than to retire this pathetic storm.
 * Narelle 28% - Fairly powerful and delivered some rain and winds to the northwest Australian coast, but damage still wasn't that bad. Indonesia might request retirement from this, but not sure if the precursor damage should apply towards retirement.
 * Oswald - 9% - Not even as bad as Narelle; doubt he's going.
 * Peta - 5% - Small and weak storm, brought some minor flooding and washed out a few roads, but still...
 * Evan - 100% - This might seem too generous, but 161 million dollars in damage ranks Evan one of the top 10 costliest South Pacific cyclones on record. If they retired countless past storms with near-negligible damage, then there's no excuse on Evan.
 * Freda - 10% - A threatening storm, but much less severe than Evan.
 * Garry - 20% - Not sure, but the Cook Islands/French Polynesia might take a hit from this, maybe enough to warrant retirement.

South Pacific


 * Evan 98% I will be stunned if it stays. they retire almost any if not all that affect land and cause little damage there is no excuse for this one to stay. case close

Freda% 5 not affect land

Garry ??? we will see

Australia

Mitchelle 10% you never know with Australia.

Narelle 55% Don`t lknow if Indonesia where Narelle kill 19 retire like Australia or are more conservative but if they do these percentage may be too low or too much.

Oswald??? Haven`t see the damages estimate.

Allanjeffs 03:31, January 23, 2013 (UTC)