Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season/September

September
It's already September in UTC; might as well start this now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:04, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll add the disturbance just in case it forms on this month.Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:43, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical wave behind Hurricane Irma
This tropical wave is emerging from the African coast a bit south of where Irma is so this future system could end up being a low-rider. Currently highlighted by NHC at 0/20. Depending on the development order between this and the GOM Aoi, it will either be Jose or Katia. Owen 18:11, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel this could be another big one... the Atlantic is being really frightening right now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:50, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh my, is the Atlantic on a roll right now? I hope not, but this is the peak of the season... anyway, this thing is still at 0/20 (just like the AOI below), and things can still change. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:12, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Models are now developing this into Jose and it looks poise to become our next major if its not affected by shear of Irma. This one is a low rider so strenghtening is forecast as it will pass warmer water than Irma. The lesser antilles should keep an eye on this one as it might be a double punch after all. Allan calderini


 * 0/40. This is really something to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:07, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50. Are we about to see two back-to-back Cape Verde type hurricanes? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:36, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:43, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here comes Jose, which could become another major Cape-Verde type hurricane. I have sort of a bad feeling with this one as well... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:01, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/70. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:33, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 0/60. This may be weaker than Irma though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:04, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/70. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:32, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Currently 30/70, may change in the next advisory though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Invested and up to 40/80. It may become Jose once it's a TS. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

40/80. The race to Jose is on, will it be this or the Bay of Campeche AOI? ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:36, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 50/80. I hope this won't exacerbate the (expected) impacts/effects of Irma. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 60/90. Already producing winds of near tropical storm force. While everyone is focused on Irma, we have to keep an eye on what will probably become Tropical Storm Jose. Could be another hurricane...maybe third major in a row. Owen 05:36, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't want to get financial advice from a hurricane specialists...their INVEST-ments lead to depressions!12.144.5.2 06:12, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol 12. This isn't likely to do as much as Irma, due to outflow from the latter that should keep this in check intensity-wise and a more northward turn that will likely make this miss the Lesser Antilles and the U.S. Bermuda may have to watch out down the road though, and maybe Atlantic Canada.Ryan1000 07:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:51, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jose
And we have the 10th named storm of the year. Currently behind Irma and forecast to become a 105 mph cat 2, but fortunately it's expected to miss the Lesser Antilles...but like I said before, Bermuda and/or Atlantic Canada may have to watch out in the long run. Ryan1000 15:00, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh I just hope it won't be a Marilyn for the Antilles (as Irma is being very eerily similar to Luis for them). Meanwhile, those in Bermuda should keep an eye on Jose. They may have escaped Gonzalo '14 and Nicole '16, but this storm may be something to watch out for. If this hits the Canadian Maritimes, this may have a decent chance of retirement (as what happened to Igor '10 and Juan '03). For now though, all eyes are on Irma and this storm, although a threat, is not (yet) a major threat. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Are the Carolina Outer Banks safe?12.144.5.2 15:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12, It's far too soon to tell that with Jose. Give it some time. Ryan1000 15:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Didn't really expect Jose to come this soon. I really hope it's a fishspinner. Luckily it could miss the Lessers (unless the track shifts a bit south), but Bermuda and Atlantic Canada may have to watch out. My best hope is that this becomes a fishspinning major because devastation is NOT what we need after the Harvey and Irma monsters. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:02, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

I didn't even know Jose had formed. Sorry Jose, that just shows how much people care about you compared to Irma. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 18:58, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes, Irma is the big and scary one at the current moment. But little Jose is up to 45 mph/1006 mbars. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:35, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * We are focusing on Irma, sorry Jose. Anyway, this is forecasted to be a hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:24, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose is trying his best to strengthen and be noticed behind a certain monster near the Lessers. It is now 50 mph/1004 mbars. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:58, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * 60 mph/1002 as of Advisory 4.12.144.5.2 11:39, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose is quickly getting his act together, he might become a hurricane later today at the rate he's going. However, due to the upwelled water and outflow from Irma, Jose likely won't get too powerful over the open Atlantic. Ryan1000 13:25, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

...JOSE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT...
 * Yep, you guessed it. Jose to become a hurricane by tonight. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:33, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fabian 2, to be honest.  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:21, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * If you looked closely at the advisory, you can see these are being released by the WPC. This is probably practice for the backups if NHC goes down.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:28, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Jose
Looks stronger than 75 mph on satellite.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:02, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Jose is supposed to pass by Barbuda as a Category 3 on Saturday,according to the NHC...I don't think his offer of pressure-washing is the kind of cleanup they need!12.144.5.2 21:36, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * I really hope that's not the case, Irma was bad enough for them...no way, Jose. Ryan1000 23:03, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, no way Jose for him. Classic. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:35, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol Ryan. No way, Jose, will you be another Lesser Antilles monster! This is forecast to be a major when it passes just north of the Lessers. I hope this doesn't impact them, especially after that other catastrophic monster. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:45, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I said that in my retirement predictions 6 years ago when Jose flopped and had no chance of retirement. While this Jose is no flop regarding strength, hopefully it won't affect land during it's lifetime. Ryan1000 07:29, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still at 90 mph and 986 mb, but it's forming an eye and should become a major soon. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:56, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Antigua & Barbuda now have a Hurricane Watch.12.144.5.2 15:10, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose appears to be going rapid intensification. Looks like the Leewards are about to get hammered again. --Whiplash (talk) 15:59, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Welcome to Category 2,Jose...please stay over the open ocean.12.144.5.2 17:59, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 105 mph and 978 mbars now, the core is still expected to narrowly miss the northeastern Lessers. There could still be some impacts from Jose in Barbuda, but nothing like what Irma did to the island. Ryan1000 18:08, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Just thinking of the disruption caused to recovery efforts.12.144.5.2 19:24, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Um... 18z ATCF makes Jose the third (consecutive) major hurricane of the season... AL, 12, 2017090718,, BEST, 0, 153N, 516W, 100, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1013, 150, 15, 120, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOSE, D, 12, NEQ, 180, 90, 80, 110, genesis-num, 025, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:37, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, this is RIing... Jose really wants attention because he's jealous of Irma getting all of it. Unfortunately, this could severely hamper Irma recovery efforts for Barbuda, etc. No way, Jose, are you getting those northeastern Caribbean islands. Leave them alone! D: ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:01, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * With potential impacts from Jose looming over the Leeward Islands so soon after Irma, a certain adage bears repeating: Beware the first storm of September!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, September 7, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Jose
Official per NHC. 105 kts/966 mbar, forecast peak intensity raised to 120 kts. This has a decent shot of becoming the third consecutive Category 4 hurricane of the season, which would be the first such occurrence on record for the Atlantic basin. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:36, September 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Fortunately, it's not expected to make a direct landfall over the upper Lessers, but pass close. Hopefully Jose doesn't hit them after what they went through with Irma. Speaking of Irma, the upwelled water near the upper Lessers and some dry air should keep Jose from intensifying as hard as Irma did, but the long-range forecast for this is complicated. The GFS expects this to be a fishspinner after passing the Lessers, but the Euro expects this to do a loop and threaten the U.S. east coast after Irma moves inland. This bears some serious watching down the road if the Euro verifies. The Euro has also shifted back to a west-coast skimming of Florida for Irma, but the GFS is still insisting a Miami hit before moving into Georgia. Ryan1000 20:52, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I found a news story online about the regional agency CDEMA saying Jose was affecting the timing of evacuating people from Barbuda.12.144.5.2 00:43, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * St. Martin, which was impacted by Irma, received a hurricane warning. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:24, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Is it strange to say that Jose's appearance is starting to look like Irma couple days ago?-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:50, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory upps Jose to 125 mph and 957 mbars, but Jose will be moving over the upwelled waters of Irma soon. Ryan1000 09:35, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Honestly, as long as Jose either weakens quite a bit before its closest pass to the Lessers, or heads more northward than expected (or, ideally, both)... I hope that Jose manages to squeak in Category 4 intensity while it still has time to do so, just so we can have our first-ever instance of back-to-back-to-back C4+ Atlantic hurricanes. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:26, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12z ATCF lists Jose's pressure as being 15 mbar lower than at the 5am or 8am (intermediate) advisories (942 vs. 957), though it maintains Jose's 110-kt winds. I'm wondering if the drop in pressure will hint at an upgrade to Category 4 intensity when the 11am advisory rolls around... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:38, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

Update released and Jose is up to 150mph/942mb. Recon found (suspect) SFMR winds of 170mph too. Crazy, not looking good for the Leewards unfortunately. Kiewii 14:13, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jose is now a Cat 4 with 942mb and 150mph winds. Brief cat 5 is a possibility. --Whiplash (talk) 14:16, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * At this rate the northeastern Lesser Antilles are going to become Lesser Atlantis... This is probably the worst possible time for an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:22, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Plz no Category 5... It will become worse to them. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:30, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * As Irma weakens to 150 mph, Jose intensifies to 150 mph. I don't know anymore; I just hope that Jose won't exacerbate Irma's effects in the Leewards. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:55, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 2PM Jose stays at 150 mph while dropping 2mb of pressure.The evacuation of Barbuda is being affected (forecast track runs quite close).12.144.5.2 18:21, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory comes out in about an hour, and I have a bad feeling that Jose will be upgraded to a category 5 (Irma is another story, it's eye still looks ragged.) It looks so well organized I'll be surprised if it isn't upgraded. This will spell disaster for the folks in Barbuda and surrounding islands. They don't need another category 5, especially one less than a week after Irma. Also, we went 9 years without a category 5 in the Atlantic, and now we might have three within just a 2-year span. Unbelievable. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 23:07, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * BT shows Jose at 135 kt, recon showed 142 kt unflagged.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:39, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * 11PM advisory has Jose with 155 mph winds but forecast to only weaken from here on.12.144.5.2 03:09, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am shocked that Jose got this powerful, but C5 is looking unlikely. It's now just forecast to weaken. Irma recovery areas (Barbuda, etc.) are bracing for hurricane impacts once again... this shouldn't be like Irma though. And I'd give a small (<25%) chance that this will actually gain the 5 more mph to reach C5 immediately before the weakening begins. Has 2 back-to-back C5's ever happened before in the Atlantic? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 2AM,winds down to 150.12.144.5.2 06:07, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Although Jose is passing close to the northeastern Lessers, it's also a small hurricane with most of the thunderstorm activity northeast of the center, so even slightly missing the islands could mean having little to no impacts at all. Ryan1000 10:35, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

145 mph, 944 mbars. Good that this will bypass the Lessers. My fingers are crossed for the coming days though. If the expected loop happens, I don't know anymore — Florida might get a double whammy. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:54, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Newest update: only 1 millibar higher than the previous advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:59, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Most models don't show Jose hitting Florida any more. Instead they make Jose reintensify after doing a loop and either go out to sea or towards Atlantic Canada. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:20, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hopefully that's true, KN. Atlantic Canada may need to keep an eye on this one, though I bet it won't be as severe as Igor '10 or Juan '03 if it hits land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:02, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed if it's true. Hopefully, it doesn't hit Florida. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! - 68.106.0.77 18:49, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose is now passing right by Irma recovery areas in the northeastern Caribbean. I hope it doesn't do further devastation there. And Jose can stay away from Atlantic Canada or any other landmass. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:27, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'd like to mention that last night, when the NHC bumped Jose's winds to 135 kts, they said that Jose's satellite appearance had actually degraded somewhat in the hours leading up to the advisory... does anyone else think Jose might be upgraded to a Category 5 in post-analysis? Such would mean that we had two Category 5s coexisting in the Atlantic, what with Irma striking Cuba around the time Jose would have been a C5. What a season this has become. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:30, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose now gradually weakening, 115 kn/944 mbar. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:23, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Were gonna have to watch this guy as looks like he is going to do a Jeanne 2004 according to models and do a nice loop and potentially threaten the U.S. Eastern Seaboard and will restrengthen when doing so. Could potentially be retirement candidate number 3 if he does so. This is currently far out however. --Whiplash (talk) 05:08, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still a C4 as of the 5AM advisory... the latest GFS and Euro runs are scary. But those runs are for next week, which of course makes it subject to further change(s). The East Coast needs to watch out for this though; this looks like a re-Gloria ('85) that will do a Jeanne-esque loop. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:09, September 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * The track forecast with this becomes pretty complicated in the long run, the GFS expects the trough that's currently recurving Irma northward to outrun Jose as it makes it's loop and eventually makes Jose hit the mid-Atlantic head-on down the road, while the Euro makes Jose ride up the east coast on that trough and eventually hit Maine as a 960 mbar category 3 hurricane. No major hurricane has ever made landfall that far north before in the Atlantic. Either scenario wouldn't be good news, and if Jose does hit the U.S. down the road and cause enough impact, it would make this season the first on record to feature 3 consecutive retired names in the Atlantic. This almost happened a few times in the past, most notably in 1955 and 2008, but the "H" storms in those years (Hilda and Hanna, respectively) were snubbed despite their high death tolls. Ryan1000 09:23, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hopefully Jose misses the East Coast and Atlantic Canada because I've had enough of all this devastation lately. They will still need to prepare as Jose seems to be really threatening the regions. 2017 is for sure going down as the costliest season ever. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:10, September 10, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Jose (2nd time)
Down to a cat 2 now, 105 and 968. Jose will likely begin his clockwise loop over the next few days, but it's still too far out to tell what impacts this hurricane could have for the U.S. It could hit north Carolina and go northeast anywhere from eastern Long Island to Maine, or it could miss the U.S. east coast entirely and potentially threaten Atlantic Canada as a strong hurricane. Ryan1000 10:34, September 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Or he could just go out to sea like a good boy. 8) --Whiplash (talk) 22:30, September 11, 2017 (UTC)

Jose is looking really disorganized right now. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's fury, Never Forget. 22:56, September 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * I agree. It looks more like a tropical storm than a Category 2 hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:54, September 12, 2017 (UTC)

Now a Category 1. 85 mph, 982 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's fury, Never Forget. 04:09, September 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Phew, it's now weakening. I hope it doesn't make landfall at all. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:26, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope the same. However, a lot of model guidance seems to be directing Jose towards Atlantic Canada. Unless it moves as east as possible, Atlantic Canada or even New England may have to brace for impacts. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:43, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC says could be downgraded to tropical storm soon.12.144.5.2 18:00, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Not yet, Jose is expected to maintain hurricane intensity. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:33, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Predictions have Jose remaining a hurricane until the 16th, when it becomes a Tropical Storm. But the forecast retains 70+ mph winds through the whole forecast period. The cone is kinda directing it the Bermuda way. That island shouldn't get too much other than heavy rain if that's the case, since it will pass to the northwest. Hopefully Jose avoids Atlantic Canada in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

The way Jose looks right now due to the shear, reminds me of the way Nicole looked last year before she exploded. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:59, September 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jose fighting from the shear, as he loops around. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 22:41, September 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose will be moving over his own wake over the next few days which may keep his intensity in check longer before he turns north. The track has shifted slightly towards the east coast, but still keeps Jose offshore. However, due to Jose's expected expansion in size and slow movement, rip currents will be a threat to the U.S. east coast even if Jose doesn't make landfall. Ryan1000 23:20, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jose (2nd time)
Down to a TS now, 70 mph and 989 mbars. However, Jose is forecast to restrengthen to an 85 mph hurricane over the weekend and the NHC track forecast is coming dangerously close to New England down the road, especially Massachusetts. This still bears watching. Ryan1000 15:56, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * The forecast secondary peak has been upped to 90 mph, but luckily it is forecast to slowly weaken after the 17th. I hope that if it does strike New England, it hits as a TS and causes as little impacts as possible. Everywhere from New England to Atlantic Canada is being threatened by Jose. It better not become a really impacting storm, as Harvey and Irma were more than enough for the U.S. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:36, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I think it will impact New England and Atlantic Canada, but it's a bit too early to tell. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:58, September 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * The cone seems to be pointed in the general direction of New England to Nova Scotia. Unless Jose turns sharply eastward out to sea, it is a threat to Atlantic Canada and New England. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:25, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Some model conflict ongoing: GFS and CMC bring this out to sea after moving perilously close to New England and Atlantic Canada, while ECMWF makes Jose loop off New England before moving over Washington and Philadelphia. Unfortunately, this means a re-Sandy is still on the cards. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:42, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Jose (3rd time)
Back up to a hurricane 107.77.105.62 21:37, September 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * 75 mph/983 mb is the intensity. It will be a threat to New England. Rip currents will come when it nears New England. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 00:02, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC forecasts a sharp turn late in the forecast period, but a trough isn't going to arrive to recurve Jose until late next week, so Jose, despite not being too powerful, could bring heavy flooding and impacts to the coastline if he passes close enough. Ryan1000 10:12, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

I think I see an eye trying to pop out. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:05, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I see it too. Clouds cover it, but I can see it trying to come out. Anyway, Jose is looking like a minor threat to New England and could bring rain and heavy surf to the region. Thankfully it's forecast to turn away before reaching Nova Scotia. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:09, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * It may be too soon to tell that however, the trough recurving Jose may not be strong enough to keep it away from a landfall on Massachusetts if it passes far enough north or if Jose moves faster than anticipated. However, Jose making landfall in Massachusetts as a weak hurricane may actually be a better scenario for the U.S. overall, because if Jose moves slowly enough near the state, then his southern flow may recurve Maria out to sea before she approaches the U.S. east coast next week, but if Jose gets recurved eastward quickly before he makes landfall then Maria will be less likely to go out to sea, and since Maria could be a powerful major hurricane by the time she passes north of the Bahamas, I'd rather deal with a weak Jose than a strong Maria. The interaction between the two storms next week is going to be a major factor in how the U.S. fares from these storms. Ryan1000 00:24, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jose getting around with the ladies this year. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) --Whiplash (talk) 20:34, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol, anyway, Jose is now forecast to start looping towards the south at the end of the forecast period (possibly due to Maria). Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for the east coast from Delaware to Massachusetts. Jose likes to dance with ladies (first Irma and now Maria). :P ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:16, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's still too soon to know what influence Jose will have on Maria, and the intensity of the two storms and how fast Jose moves will have a big difference in the impacts caused by the two storms. The latest Euro run moves the remnants of Jose southwest after turning east and getting absorbed by a much larger and more powerful Maria moving up the east coast to a New England landfall, but the GFS has jumped onto the Euro's 00Z run from this morning, showing Jose and Maria doing a fujiwhara loop off the east coast and bringing both out to sea. Hopefully that's the case. However, New England should still watch out for Jose; even if he's not too strong, flooding could be a big threat should Jose comes close enough to Massachusetts. Ryan1000 22:44, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

What can I say? Jose is a ladies-man. He's getting all the lady hurricanes. Well, except for Katia, who just danced alone by herself near Mexico. I do hope both stay out to sea, but we'll see. I mean, away from the east coast. As it's pretty much guaranteed that Maria will hit the Leeward Islands first. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 02:08, September 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, although it's still a bit too soon to know for sure how the interaction of Jose and Maria will result. Jose is now down to 75 mph/977 mbars and a TS warning has been issued for the Rhode Island/Massachusetts area. I don't think this will be anything severe for New England. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:28, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Steve, you should keep in mind Jose has a very large wind field and an expansive area of thunderstorms, and most of Jose's thunderstorm convection is displaced north of the circulation; the southern half of this storm has almost been completely eroded by dry air, so even if Jose misses making a landfall in Massachusetts to the south, the state will definitely feel impacts from this, and Jose's unusually slow movement for a hurricane in this part of the Atlantic mean that flooding is going to be a big problem for areas of southern New England from the storm. We saw with Harvey earlier this year that a storm's circulation doesn't have to pass directly over a major city to cause significant flooding and/or historic damage there, especially if the storm is big and moving slowly. While Jose probably won't be as bad for the area around Boston as Harvey was for Houston, Jose definitely shouldn't be written off as a storm with minor impacts just yet; in fact, if flooding is bad enough in Massachusetts, it's very possible Jose could join his two predecesors as a retired name. Ryan1000 22:43, September 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I guess I should've put "I hope it won't be anything severe for New England." I think Harvey, Irma and Maria kind of made me redefine what "severe" is. Agreed that its large size could result in some potentially significant flood impacts. A best-case scenario in which Jose is not such a bad flooding event and much of the rain stays offshore is what we certainly need after Harvey, Irma, and Maria. This season has done enough. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:12, September 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, it's continuing its rip currents along the East Coast of US. Umm, this doesn't look tropical anymore (well, to me). Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:02, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jose (3rd time)
Back to a TS. 60 kn/973 mb. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:54, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Finally, Jose got downgraded below hurricane intensity after a long time of being a hurricane (excluding the portion of Jose being a tropical storm during the loop out in the open Atlantic almost a week ago). This time, it's going for good. Jose lasted quite a while. New England is not getting much impacts aside from heavy surf and rip currents - looking at the weather.com radar map, all I see is a few showers associated with Jose over the region, mainly over eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Hopefully any impacts are minor from here on out. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:29, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jose's northern rainbands are currently bringing heavy rains and strong surf in parts of Massachusetts as we speak, and while it may not be particularly strong or making a direct landfall there, Jose's slow movement offshore means this could be prolonged for several days, and New England isn't frequently impacted by hurricanes, let alone slow-moving ones like Jose. Hopefully flooding won't be too bad, though I have a bad feeling it could be extensive in parts of southeastern Massachusetts. However, if Jose sticks around there long enough, we can at least be thankful that despite Jose's impacts, his southernly flow will recurve Maria eastward and away from the U.S. east coast, as indicated by the current and more recent runs of both the GFS and Euro models. Ryan1000 19:47, September 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Jose is now at 60 mph and 982 mbars. That is a low pressure for a 60 mph storm. I believe that it is due to Jose's not-very-tropical-looking structure and possible baroclinity. The main rainbands are already starting to strike southeastern Massachusetts, and due to its slow movement, there is obvious potential for some flooding. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:25, September 21, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose
Now turned Post-Tropical. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 03:26, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Honestly think that it turned extratropical couple days ago, when the winds were stronger way outside the center.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  03:57, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

Watch. He's gonna pull a Nadine, and come back. He's been just like her anyways.

lol. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 04:05, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

final advisory by the NHC issued on Jose. roussil 97  20:46, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * "After 70 advisories, enough is enough" -- Forecaster Blake. Ryan1000 02:15, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol. Jose is the longest lasting storm since Nadine... And luckily, it wasn't that bad for the east coast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:48, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
Another AOI is on the Gulf of Mexico. It's at 10/10. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 19:36, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/20. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 01:40, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 10/30. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:32, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/40. This is really the peak of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 40/50. Not sure if it becomes Katia. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria? This will become at most Katia if it is named... anyway, this might probably only be a TS because conditions are only marginally conducive. The race to Jose is on! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:38, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested and is now at 50/60. The loser will become Katia, the winner becomes Jose — unless one of them follows the same fate as PTC 10. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Woah, it's now 60/70. The race for Jose is really on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:53, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * This'll be Katia if it forms now, since 94L became Jose. Ryan1000 15:03, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, here comes Katia. It will meander around the BOC and possibly be a re-Nate or Ingrid, although it's too early to tell if it will be a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:03, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
Now a TD. Forecast to gradually strengthen. It'll curve to the southwest, something I don't think I've ever seen before in a BOC tropical cyclone. Current intensity is 35 mph/1008 mbar, and it's forecast to reach 65. But knowing NHC forecasts to be conservative, a hurricane is an outside possibility. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * HWRF predicted a strong hurricane with this earlier, but they're probably too aggressive with some weaker storms like this one, although they perform well with organized, stronger hurricanes (even though Irma outperformed every model by becoming a cat 5 this morning). Ryan1000 23:14, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * The potential 11th named storm, Katia, will be coming any moment now. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:27, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia
DVORAK estimates up above 35 kt now - I expect the upgrade to Tropical Storm Katia at 2 or 5 am. Have a feeling this will be another hurricane. Owen 05:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hello Katia! It is going to be Re-Franklin because it will hit on the same location as Franklin (I think). Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:12, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Expectations or not,as of the 2 AM NHC map it is still TD Thirteen,NOT "Katia".12.144.5.2 06:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * It was already being called Katia on the storm floaters page, and the 5 AM advisory confirmed that. 40 mph, 1006 mbars. We have the 11th named storm of the year. Ryan1000 08:47, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well damn, the NHC now expects Katia to become a hurricane as well, that'll give us 6 consecutive hurricanes, assuming Jose becomes one. The Atlantic hasn't pulled that off since 2005 had Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rita, and Stan. Ryan1000 16:02, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Whaat? Another Frankie?  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 16:22, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Katia is almost a hurricane or just one.  I see Jose Will also be upgrade. Incredible Katia could be a strong cat 2 or minimal cat 3 at the pace its going. Unbelievable season we have. Allan Calderini143.255.32.45 19:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Upgraded in BT and recon shows hurricane SFMR winds.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  19:26, September 6, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia
Hurricane watches up in Mexico. Could possibly RI.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:01, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Didn't expect to be a hurricane but ok... Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 22:46, September 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Could be quite a dangerous system if this thing parks itself over Mexico City. The city is basically an ancient lake bed which could be very prone to a slow moving rainmaker. May become retirement candidate depending on how this unfolds. --Whiplash (talk) 22:49, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Woah! I didn't expect Katia to intensify that fast. Well, hopefully she doesn't get too strong before turning southwest and hitting Mexico, Katia may fall victim to upwelling over her own slow movement if she doesn't pick up speed soon. Ryan1000 23:03, September 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hot damn! Didn't expect Katia to get this strong already. The NHC is now taking Katia to a strong C2. There's a high chance we could be looking at the 2nd BOC major on record, after Karl '10. I hope this is not as bad as Karl, though... And plus, this is an incredibly small hurricane (I think). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:48, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * You're right Steve, according to the public advisory, hurricane-force winds go out only 10 miles from the center of Katia and TS force winds go out only 70 miles. While small hurricanes like Katia are more prone to rapid intensification than big ones, they're also more susceptible to weakening from wind shear and dry air, though Katia's slow movement, as I mentioned earlier, could cause it to weaken by upwelling over its own wake instead, unless it picks up speed soon. Let's just hope that if it does RI before hitting Mexico, it hits an unpopulated part of the coastline. Currently Katia is projected to hit farther north than Veracruz and south of Tampico, so hopefully impacts won't be too severe from this. We saw how Franklin killed no people in Mexico earlier this year, hopefully that's the case with Katia too. Ryan1000 11:23, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intermediate advisory is out, 70 kts/983 mbar. If Jose and Katia both become major hurricanes, then pending reanalysis of the 1961 AHS (which I don't think has been completed?), this will be the first season with four consecutive major hurricanes since that season kicked off with five in a row. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:20, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Nope, 1961 hasn't been done yet, so it's possible we could get a record-tying 4 consecutive majors (the first 4 storms of 1926 also did that btw). Ryan1000 14:08, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensity at 80 mph/983 mb. Btw, I doubt it will be a major hurricane due to the proximity to land. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:37, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't cast doubt on this... Katia is a small hurricane, so it could end up RIing in any favorable enough conditions it can encounter. But its upwelling is also an issue, and that could prevent it from getting too strong. The Mexican coast along Katia's forecast track needs to prepare, for this could get as bad as Karl unless it strikes a sparsely populated area. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:05, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * I see an eye on visible satellite imagery... ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:31, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

And now I barely see the eye, it isn't clear anymore. Hours away from making landfall in Mexico. 85 mph/982 mb. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 05:22, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Mexico has just been hit with an 8.4 magnitude earthquake (with confirmed tsunami) off the coast of Chiapas...with Katia just to the north about to make landfall. =( Has a tropical cyclone ever hit around the time of an earthquake? Jake52 (talk) 06:45, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * That's what I don't know Jake, but God forbid Katia from affecting the same Mexican states who were badly hit by the quake. (It was the Pacific side of Mexico that took the brunt of the quake, but the tremor was felt/detected across Central America and even as far as Austin, TX. Hope Katia's precipitation won't hamper recovery efforts.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:18, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Jake, if memory serves, I believe there was an earthquake that struck southern Japan shortly after typhoon Man-Yi made landfall there in July 2007 as a strong category 2 storm, but that's about the only other example I can think of. Anyhow, Katia is now up to 90 mph/977 mbars and is approaching cat 2 strength before it'll hit Mexico later today. Ryan1000 09:35, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, that means that Mexico will receive a double whammy (unfortunately). A rare one to make landfall in the country that encountered an earthquake. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:34, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Make that 100mph/975 for Category 2 Katia,forecast to reach 105mph by landfall with a chance of Cat 3.12.144.5.2 16:03, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 2PM,105mph/974.12.144.5.2 18:22, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * 4 pm update, 105 mph/972 mb. Getting close to make landfall. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:36, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall in Mexico
Katia has now crossed the coastline, and it doesn't have much longer before it dissipates over Mexico due to her small circulation. Katia didn't become a major before landfall, but there will still be some impacts from this. Ryan1000 02:06, September 9, 2017 (UTC) ...KATIA MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF TECOLUTLA MEXICO...
 * Katia has officially made landfall in Mexico. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:04, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm bamboozled with what Mexico has to go through, and with all the natural disasters that has happened recently in North America (fires in western U.S., the earthquake, and obviously the hurricanes). Mexico is not alone with this nonsense- First the earthquake, and now this? But Katia shouldn't be too devastating, due to its small size and striking a less populated area (I think). I lowkey wanted a major (but kinda didn't want it either due to it approaching land), but I guess Katia couldn't do it. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:13, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia (2nd time)
At 2 AM already down to 45mph.12.144.5.2 06:09, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Katia is rapidly weakening over Mexico. Expected to dissipate later on. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 07:18, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Katia
Briefly became a TD. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Katia
Down and out. Hope the effects aren't that bad. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Reports at least 2 people have died in mudslides from the storm. --Whiplash (talk) 17:03, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hoped the death count would be like Franklin...I guess not. :'( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:29, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Remnants of this crossed the Pacific Ocean and then regenerated to 15-E. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 00:03, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Eastern Atlantic
Bruh. 0/20. Let's see if this develops will be a weakling if so. --Whiplash (talk) 00:08, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * I don't think this will be a weakling. I think this storm will be Lee, and could be a minimal hurricane. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:38, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

If this becomes Lee, I hope it doesn't become something major. Two reasons

1.) We've had enough already with hurricanes.

And 2.) Kind of a selfish reason, but I'd prefer for my name to stay on the list for a while longer.

If it became a minimal hurricane, I wouldn't mind. It would be cool to see a Hurricane Lee. I'm biased, I know. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 02:33, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Models show a fish, so don't worry. :) ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:20, September 8, 2017 (UTC)

If it's a fish, then I want it to become a category 5. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's Fury. Thinking of Texas. 03:40, September 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * I want to see your name be a Category 5 if it's a fishspinner too. That'll be really cool. :3 (I want to make that face.) Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:16, September 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Leeboy, I hope your name is used for a fish C5! :D But I'm not sure if it can do that, because for one, fishspinning C5's have actually never occurred before in this basin (some 1950's-60's "fishspinning C5's" were downgraded in post-analysis). But that would be absolutely fantastic. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:17, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally shows up on map at 2 AM,a 10/30 chance.12.144.5.2 06:10, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * On the 2-day TWO with a 20/40 chance. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 17:59, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope it's a powerful fishspinner. :D Future-Lee shall stay away from land. Had enough of devastating hurricanes. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:31, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

Go, future-Lee, go! :D Leeboy100 Beware Irma and Jose's fury.. 20:01, September 9, 2017 (UTC)

The 8 PM TWO came out a little early and upped its chances to 30/50.Will it stay content to spin fish?12.144.5.2 23:43, September 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 30/60. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 07:16, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * The NHC 5-day outlook is showing a track that curves northwestward, putting any land at ease. It would be cool if this is a major hurricane fishspinner, or even a C5 fishspinner (unlikely as that has never occurred in the Atlantic before). I don't know if environmental conditions will support such a powerful hurricane though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:16, September 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 40/50.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 00:46, September 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Chances now DOWN to 30/30.12.144.5.2 14:17, September 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, it flopped for some reason.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:31, September 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20.20...pfft...12.144.5.2 23:04, September 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10...I think some other AoI will have to apply for the Lee job.12.144.5.2 00:34, September 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * What a flop, to be honest... Lee will have to wait. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:56, September 12, 2017 (UTC)

Huh. Well again, whatever becomes Lee, I hope it won't be too bad. We've had enough destruction. Leeboy100 Beware Irma's fury, Never Forget. 04:10, September 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sigh, the Atlantic is sleeping again due to a Pacific depression and two disturbances. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:30, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Not really. Jose is still out there, and could last for a while to come. But the Atlantic is just getting tired, due to all the strong activity since Harvey. :P ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:48, September 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 04:28, September 13, 2017 (UTC)

15L.MARIA
See the archive on Maria.

AOI: Off Africa
This one is behind the above system and is at 10/20. It's also heading due westward. Unfortunately, despite the devastation caused by Harvey and Irma, the Atlantic is far from slowing down. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 23:59, September 13, 2017 (UTC)


 * 30/40. We could see Lee from the above storm and Maria from this. Ryan1000 12:07, September 14, 2017 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Actually, this might become Lee first by now, it has organized significantly and very fast. This is already up to 60/70, 96L is at 20/70. Ryan1000 20:31, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * This will likely be a TS at most because upper-level winds are forecast to increase after day 2. It could continue the trend of "Lee" always being a tropical storm after the name replaced "Lenny" after 1999. Sorry Leeboy, a fishspinning major hurricane is not going to happen with this invest. But if 96L (the other AOI) somehow becomes Lee instead, that very likely won't be a fishspinner and will threaten at least the Leeward Islands in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here comes Lee. Looking very well organized might become a Cat 1. --Whiplash (talk) 23:49, September 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also he is at 80/90 now likely will be Lee by tomorrow morning. --Whiplash (talk) 23:49, September 14, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fourteen
Feel free to discuss here. --Roblox543
 * Forecast to reach 70 mph before weakening. I'm rooting for future Lee to become an Atlantic fishspinner version of Max though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:10, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed. It is forecast to peak at 70 mph, but knowing NHC to be conservative, a hurricane is likely going to occur. I even root for something stronger than C1, but light to moderate easterly shear is likely to slow the strengthening trend a bit. After future-Lee reaches its peak on the 18th, the negative effects of southwesterly shear is going to induce weakening and hopefully seal the fate of to-be Lee before it becomes a threat to any land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:29, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

lol. As long as my name goes to a hurricane instead of a tropical storm, I don't care what strength it is. Just stay away from land..... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:59, September 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Due to proximity to 96L, this may slow down to a near standstill over the weekend before it turns north and likely stays away from land in the long run. Ryan1000 11:11, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Forecasted to become Lee this afternoon. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:25, September 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still not Lee as of the 5 PM advisory. Its pressure is up to 1009 mbar. I'm sorry Lee, but I guess your name won't be used for a hurricane this time... T  G  2 0 1 7 20:46, September 15, 2017 (UTC)

Oh :( Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 22:36, September 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee, I'm afraid that this will be a name-stealer, I think. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 00:10, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * My power has been out for days from Irma and has just returned so I have finally returned. Not sure TD14 is going to get named. Lee might be angry that he wasn't retired last time.  Owen 00:23, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Okay, this thing is still a TD as of the 11PM advisory. If this remains a TD until Sunday, this might just settle for the name Maria. TD 14 is literally the Atlantic equivalent of 15-E. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:14, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

This depression is frustrating me. It better not steal my name.... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 04:06, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Both TDs 15-E and 14L are moving westward with no change of strength. They are forecasted to steal the names Otis and Lee or Maria. Sigh. That's how it goes. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:26, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee
And the waste of a good name... T G  2 0 1 7 14:53, September 16, 2017 (UTC)

Yay, my name getting stolen by a name-stealer. I'm so happy......... Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 15:04, September 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sadly, it was bound to occur. 30 kt of westerly shear is forecast by 48 hours, preventing Lee from getting too strong. The NHC TWO even mentioned that it would eventually enter unfavorable conditions before it even formed. Lee is going to fail like in 2005... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:12, September 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sigh, Lee is going to be weak. What a waste. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:51, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

I hope Lee will troll all of us and just explode. Unfortunately, for now, it looks like it might be similar to Felicia. Lee? More like Feleecia. Edit: There's more Lee puns where that came from. If you don't like them, I'll just leeve. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:38, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lee
Bye flop. See you again in 2023, perhaps? (Unless NHC will do that retroactive retirement — highly unlikely though.) Bret is finally displaced as the weakest storm of the season. While that is typically a sad news for me, it is not a sad news this time; we've had enough destructive hurricanes since Harvey, and Lee served as some sort of relief from those beasts. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:59, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Facepalm Bye fail. We don't want you anymore so go dissipate. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 15:57, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

Lol. Well, it's the weakest of the season. At least it's best at something :P. I'll have to try again in 2023. This is sillee. Okay, I'm done with the Lee puns. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 17:36, September 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee putting the depression in tropical depression. :) --Whiplash (talk) 21:36, September 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep. What a faileeure this is... :P It has been such a pathetic storm, hopefully Lee does better in 2023. But if you think about it, Lee was still a nice break from the constant monsters we've been having this season, even if another such monster (Maria) is looming. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:24, September 17, 2017 (UTC)

I mean, I'm happy we got a break from the destruction, but Maria's likelee going to restart it. It is patheticalee disappointing that all of the Lees have been relativelee weak. Technicalee, this one is actuallee weaker than the 2005 version of Lee. The winds were the same, but while this Lee had a pressure of 1007, the one in 2005 had a pressure of 1006. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 23:38, September 17, 2017 (UTC) Update: Added Lee puns to the words "pathetically" and "relatively", because why not? Another update: Screw it, any "ly"s in my posts about Lee will be replaced with Lee.

Lee's still alive. He's fighting to stay alive. Poor guy. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 19:23, September 18, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Lee
And he gives up. Try again in 2023, Lee. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:48, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

This may just be the fact that we share the same name talking, but maybe I was a bit too hard on Lee. First off, the environment he was in was highly unfavorable. Even if he tried his best, he probably would have fallen flat on his face anyway. Second of all, he gave us a much needed (but unfortunately, thanks to Maria, short) break from all the destruction, and I appreciate that a lot. Also it is slightly amusing to see a storm with your name, that is until one of them causes destruction and goes down in infamy.

Rest easy little Lee, you've probably gone to the giant ocean in the sky where the well-behaved storms that caused little or no destruction are free to spin up the ocean all they want to, in an environment free of shear. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 02:50, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, at least it was a break from the monsters. A very short break, but a break nonetheless. The storm was still an epic disgraceful faileeure though. A major fishspinner that never ever touches land is what we need instead. Harvey, Irma, and Maria are going to a giant icy ocean in the underworld, where there is a bunch of land, powerful wind shear, and desert-like dry air. :P ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:40, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Yep. They're going to Hurricane Hell. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 03:57, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, I think Hurricane Hell is for retired names. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:08, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

Pretty much, if the name is retired, it's likely there. Along with some snubbed storms. If you're debating snubbed storms, Tip is an exception. From what I know, he's like the god of the hurricanes there. ;) Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 05:27, September 19, 2017 (UTC)

What is hell for a hurricane?...wouldn't it be dead air over smooth cold water?

Meanwhile the TWO says the Remnants of Lee have a 10/20 chance of forming a cyclone.ZombieLee?12.144.5.2 13:31, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Steve mentioned above what it would be like. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 13:34, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also, I'd love to see a ZombieLee. A Zombee. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 13:36, September 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee hasn't given up. The remnants are at 60/60. Even a small increase in regeneration of Lee.--182.58.49.46 03:07, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wow, Lee might even reform after it's failure. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:48, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Chances now 60/70!12.144.5.2 06:03, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

The Zomblee of a faileeure could reform. :P This is like the 2005 Lee, which also reformed. I hope that if it does reform, it redeems itself and becomes at least a half-decent storm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:38, September 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm sorry to report that the chances of redevelopment have dropped to 40/50. :/ Winds have dropped below gale force, but for a little while they were at 40 kts, which would mean that if Lee does not regenerate, then it was stronger as a remnant low than it was as a tropical cyclone. Weird. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:09, September 20, 2017 (UTC)

Poor Lee is now down to 20/30, and redevelopment chances are decreasing. User:Stacy54


 * Well, this remains as a fai​leeure as it was a flop. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 01:51, September 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yep, doesn't look like this flop will redevelop anymore. Lee '17 goes down in history as a forgettable epic fail of a TC. At least it gave us a small break from the monsters, even though Maria was starting to ruin the northeastern Caribbean just when Lee was dissipating. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:37, September 21, 2017 (UTC)

Lee's remnants are gone from the TWO. It's over folks. Beware of Maria.

98L.INVEST
nobody expected this. 40/50 per latest TWO and may be conservative... roussil 97


 * "Associated with the remnants of Lee",says the NHC...12.144.5.2 18:20, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * They're back on, and at 40/50! Someone's not going down without a fight. -- Dylan  ( HurricaneMaker99 ) 18:22, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * an animated in-house disscussion must be ongoing in the NHC, no best track update so far  roussil 97


 * tidbits site says Lee has regenerated. has the same position as 98L in best track.  roussil 97  19:30, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Umm... fellas... AL, 14, 2017092218,, BEST, 0, 305N, 490W, 30, 1014, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1018, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, Even if this winds up being Lee's secondary peak intensity, I'm happy. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:52, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * instead regenerated into Lee. roussil  97  20:47, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lee (2nd time)
It's back and better than before.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:38, September 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * You had me an edit conflict there Isaac. Anyway, expected to peak near hurricane status. C'mon Lee, you can do it. Owen 20:42, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this does become a hurricane, then... has any Atlantic season ever produced eight consecutive hurricanes? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:45, September 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on Lee! Finallee become a hurricane please! Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:43, September 22, 2017 (UTC)

Now I see Lee as the real successor of 2012's Nadine, lol. Anyway, hope Lee becomes a hurricane as he is no threat to land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:18, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Is Lee the frontrunner in the "weirdest storm" betting pool?12.144.5.2 01:18, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

HE'S BACK!!!!! YES!!!! GO LEE GO!!!!!! PLEASE PULL A GENEVIEVE!!!!! Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 01:45, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Impressive, I didn't expect Lee to come back, but he did. I'd be impressed if he does become a hurricane and I'd no longer consider him an epic fail if he does that, but it still looks like Lee won't affect land either way. Dylan, there has never been an Atlantic hurricane season that has had 8 consecutive hurricanes in reliable record-keeping during the sattelite era; 1950 is the closest runner-up which had the first 7 storms become hurricanes, but if you count every Atlantic hurricane season in the best track record going back to 1851, there were 8 consecutive hurricanes in the 1870 season and the first 10 storms of the 1886 season all became hurricanes, although there likely could've been a few storms that were missed back then. Ryan1000 02:05, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee (2nd time)

 * Lee is back to a TS, and is now forecast to peak as a 85 mph hurricane. Due to low wind shear, quite a possibility he could rapidly intensify. On the other hand, because he is so small, he can also dissipate again. Owen 03:27, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

"Quite a possibility he could rapidly intensify." Yes please. I know I'm asking for too much, and the chances of it happening are almost non-existent, but I want Lee to become a Category 5. We need a powerful storm that doesn't hit land. Plus, you guys already know the other reason I want Lee to become a powerful hurricane. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 04:14, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

About the weirdest outcome would be further cycles of disappearing and reappearing.I can just imagine a storm that sticks around for the rest of the season,coming back from the dead every time it gets written off...12.144.5.2 04:49, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * A Category 3 is a bit possible for him. Let him pull off a Genevieve and Nadine. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:14, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, speak of the devil, the latest forecast track from the NHC eventually calls for Lee to become a hurricane, this actually might happen...Ryan1000 05:21, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee has surpassed his previous peak intensity by attaining winds of 40 knots. Also, from the latest forecast discussion: "microwave data showed that Lee possessed an 8-10 nmi diameter eye-like feature in both the low- and mid-levels". RI anyone? ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:01, September 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm hoping for it to RI, so that Leeboy will be happy. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 16:01, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Me too. Lee needs to be a win! Can't believe Lee is holding on for so long, since it was initially looking like a bust. This may pull an Otis (except, unlike Otis, Lee dissipated along the way before regenerating). A major fishspinner would be the best and it would satisfy Leeboy's wishes. Hopefully it completely avoids land in the very long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:54, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Go, Lee go! If Lee becomes a hurricane I'll change my signature to say Hurricane Lee instead of Leeboy100. Leeboy100 Beware Maria's Fury. 21:00, September 23, 2017 (UTC)

Also, Lee is extremely tiny. Tropical storm force winds extend out only 35 miles from the center. Marco and Tracy were still smaller in size, Lee being only a little (heh, little) bit bigger than Tracy. Also, I can't say for sure, but I think Fernand in 2013 was also a bit smaller than both Lee and Tracy. It's kind of cute how small he is. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 21:20, September 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Its size is only 5 miles bigger than Tracy. So small... Anyway, the peak intensity forecast is 85 mph. I hope it achieves C2 strength or even major hurricane status as it will remain away from land. The small size of Lee will subject it to major fluctuations in intensity and RI is not out of the question. The NHC themselves even said that they have low confidence in their forecast. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:01, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * As the really small storm is at 50 mph/1003 mb, this will intensify into a hurricane. A major is not out of the question too. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 06:18, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * He is doing it... an eye now visible on satellite imagery. Kiewii 06:19, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

Oh my god, I'm so happy. I looked at the visible imagery, there is very clearlee an eye on the visible imagery. As you can see in this picture. GO LEE GO!!!! Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:28, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * An eye forms even though it's not a hurricane yet. Lee most likely to become a hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:38, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Lee
Here it is. The first ever Hurricane Lee is rapidly intensifying. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! - 68.106.0.77 06:40, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

Ummmm, I just checked the NHC site, and it just said: '''230AM EDT. HURRICANE LEE. CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE.''' SPECIAL ADVISORY UPGRADES LEE TO A HURRICANE!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!! Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:40, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * NHC confirmed, 75 mph and 987 mbars. Looks like Lee may be on the verge of RI and could become a fairly strong hurricane out to sea at this rate. Ryan1000 06:42, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

...LEE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... Words cannot describe how unbeleevably happy I am right now. :D Also, thanks to Lee, we now have 8 hurricanes in a row! Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 06:44, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * 85/983, and forecast peak upped to 110 mph, but at this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if Lee becomes a major hurricane. Ryan1000 09:37, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Cloud tops remain quite warm, for some reason. Also the record for most number of hurricanes in a row appears to be 1893 with ten. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:47, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * If Lee becomes a major, I'd be genuinely happy. This is a forecast defier, much like Emily earlier in the season and Otis in the eastern Pacific. Indeed, finalee the name Lee became a hurricane — and it's a fish spinner! He really gave us a break from the destructive hurricanes. Go Lee, go! Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:47, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I have no qualms whatsoever about waking up to this — well done Lee, and congrats Leeboy!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 10:03, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I mentioned before that 1886 also had 10 consecutive hurricanes, but both 1886 and 1893 were before the sattelite era, so a few fishspinner TS's back then may have gone unnoticed. The 2017 Atlantic season does hold the record for the most consecutive hurricanes of any Atlantic season in the sattelite era (going back to 1944 or so), but 1886 and 1893 have the all-time records, discounting potentially missed storms back then. Ryan1000 11:37, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Intensity up to 90 mph/982 mbar. Expected to strengthen more. I won't be surprised if it's a major hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 15:53, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee looking impressive on satellite. Wouldn't be surprised if he becomes our 5th major of the season.  Owen 17:26, September 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I can't recall the last time I saw an Atlantic hurricane with such impressive structure yet relatively shallow convection. Throw a decent amount of red into the AVN imagery and we'd probably have a major hurricane right now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:35, September 24, 2017 (UTC)

...TINY LEE REMAINING WELL AWAY FROM LAND... That's what I like to hear. Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 20:50, September 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Everybody likes to hear that. 😁 To be honest, Lee looks more like a C4 than a 90 mph C1 on visible satellite imagery. It has really shallow convection though. I hope Lee strengthens to a major. BTW, with the discussion saying that Lee's TS force winds extend out only 30 nautical miles, it's almost as small as Tracy. (A nautical mile is slightly larger than a mile) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:07, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

Lee looks very well-defined. I fully expect it to be a Category 2 in the next advisory. Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 04:29, September 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Not yet a Cat 2; it is stationary. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:27, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

I don't know how Lee is still a Category 1. It looks like it might be a Category 3. Edit: I just noticed that this was my 1,000th edit on here. Of course my 1,000th edit is to a storm with my name. :P Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. Updated 20:17, September 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lee has lost his eye, which probably means he is weakening. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:20, September 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, he is down to 85 mph/983 mbars. We probably won't see a major from Lee. 🙁 However, he's forecast to reintensify a bit in 36 hours. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:05, September 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Aww, I want it to be a major. Anyway, it'll probably be a Category 2 but I doubt it. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 23:42, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

Back up to 90 mph. :D ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:02, September 26, 2017 (UTC)

Category 2 now. :D Come on, Lee. Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 08:54, September 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * 12z ATCF upped the intensity to 90 kts/975 mbar, we'll see what the 11am advisory says in 25 to 40 minutes or so. With Lee reaching Category 2 intensity, the 2017 Atlantic season has now had 7 consecutive C2+ hurricanes (C2s Gert, Katia, and Lee; C4s Harvey and Jose; and C5s Irma and Maria); has this happened previously in the satellite era? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:15, September 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * He probably won't reach major. But at least it's a Category 2. :D Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:38, September 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * He in this context (alternating male-female names; Jose male, Katia female, Lee male, Maria female, so on so forth), though to be fair, Lee is a unisex name. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:52, September 26, 2017 (UTC)

Currently the intensity is 105 mph/975 mbars, although Dylan already mentioned the intensity above but in knots. Seems like this has decent potential to become a major now. Go, Lee, go!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:56, September 26, 2017 (UTC)

I'd be shocked if Lee doesn't become a major. Also, I'd like to point out how I love the prank Lee pulled on us. He died, seeming like he'd be one of the most pathetic TC's of all time. Then, a few days later, he was like: "oh, are you all laughing at me? Well, we'll see who's laughing a few days from now." Then, he became a hurricane, and look at him now. Sure, Genevieve played bigger and more amusing tricks (as well as being a really awesome storm), but this is also fun to watch. Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 19:30, September 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * I think of Lee as a more benevolent Harvey with sea legs — remember, Harvey was barely a TS in its first life before its circulation opened up in the Caribbean. 5pm advisory brings Lee to the brink of major hurricane status: 95 kts, 971 mbar. Come on Lee, you got this!!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:00, September 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now forecast to be a major! Leeboy, that's exactly what Lee has been trying to do to us - trick us into thinking it is some sort of epic fail and then redevelop and become strong. :P This is a win in my opinion. I would be extremely shocked if it fails to become a major. C'mon Lee! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:18, September 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh never mind. This is going to be a major. I hope it's a Category 5 although it's never going to be it. Come on Lee, you can do it! Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 00:05, September 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * GWAAAN LEE BECOME A MAJOR AND SHUT IRMA AND MARIA UP, YOU ARE AN AWESOME STORM WE DON'T WANT TO SEE YOU GO. 128.240.225.89 00:31, September 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Of course you're not going to see it go. Even though it's strong, it's definitely not going to be retired because it will stay away from land. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 00:56, September 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * We still need to wait for the 11am advisory to make it official, but, BUT... AL, 14, 2017092712,, BEST, 0, 303N, 565W, 100, 964, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1016, 150, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LEE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:58, September 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * No longer forecasted to be a major. :( But, there's still a chance that it will be a major. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:17, September 27, 2017 (UTC)



Major Hurricane Lee
115/963 per new NHC advisory. - Garfield
 * And there we have it :D well done, Lee!!!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:10, September 27, 2017 (UTC)

Yaaaayyy! Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 16:22, September 27, 2017 (UTC)

Lee still a major, but the latest from the NHC says. ...LEE MAY FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR TOMORROW... Well, it was fun while it lasted. Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 20:58, September 27, 2017 (UTC)

GWAN BRUCE YOU CAN DO THIS! DEFY THE SHEAR AND STAY A MAJOR! 128.240.225.60 21:56, September 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nicely done Lee! Never thought you'd ever come to this. Off-topic, but for the record, Hurricanes Irma, Maria, and Jose marked the first time on record an Atlantic hurricane season produced 3 hurricanes in one year with an ACE of over 40 each. With that being said, it looks like when the NHC does their monthly summary for September in 4 days, they'll probably note that September 2017 was the most active September on record for the Atlantic basin in terms of total ACE produced during the month. Ryan1000 23:50, September 27, 2017 (UTC)

<Continued off-topic. I did a quick calculation on ACE for this month (excluding Irma's August ACE). This one month alone, to date, produced 164.705 (rounded up, 165) and can likely reach 167 on leftover energy from Lee and Maria. This truly is the tale of two seasons: from Arlene to Emily, this season had the lowest ACE for the first five storms of the season at under 4. Even with only having had four storms, 1983 had 17. Then September kicks in, and produces 165. Unless both Lee and Maria fall to pieces at 11, this month will reach 167, producing more ACE in a month than 1969, 2010, and 1996 - three hyperactive hurricane seasons - did in 365 days. That's staggering. Jake52 (talk) 00:58, September 28, 2017 (UTC)

Wow. Why is everyone ignoring me? I was only showing my support for Bruce! I was only gonna say that Lee is usually a weak storm name and is the first time he is a WIN hurricane. Franklin too. Jesus, I was only being nice. 128.240.225.60 01:11, September 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * We're not ignoring you 128, Bruce Lee jokes are fine seeing as how this is a fishspinner, even NHC isn't above that, seeing their reactions to (captain) Kirk in 2012. And yep Jake, that's incredible, and we still have October and November left, and as seasons as recently as last year, 2015, and 2012 showed us, late-season storms are not to be taken lightly, and it's certainly possible that 2017 could make it to the top 10 most active Atlantic seasons on record regarding ACE, or even top 5 if we have a late-season as hyperactive as last year's was. I'm particularly worried if a storm reaches the NW Caribbean over the next few weeks (excluding the current and disorganized 10/20 AOI over eastern Cuba), assuming shear settles down there, since SST's are very warm in the NW Caribbean. EDIT: Dylan, regarding the 7 consecutive cat 2's record in the sattelite era you were pondering...the first 7 storms of 1950 (which all became hurricanes as I mentioned before) were also all category 2 or stronger storms, so this year would tie 1950 for that record, although 1893 had 9 consecutive cat 2's before the sattelite era; the first hurricane in their 10 consecutive hurricane streak was a cat 1. 1886 had the 4th storm become a cat 1, which interferes with that season having 7+ consecutive cat 2's. Ryan1000 01:32, September 28, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Lee (2nd time)
Down to C2 strength as of the latest advisory. Glad that Lee became a major! :D ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:06, September 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * I was away when Lee became a major, but I'm glad that Lee had become a major even though I didn't saw it be a major. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 03:52, September 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 90 mph/977 mbars, and like Maria, will be dead by the weekend. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:11, September 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lee is dying after it peaked as a major. :( Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:29, September 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 75 mph/987 mb. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:30, September 29, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee (3rd time)
Down to TS strength. Farewell to an amazing forecast defier! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:00, September 29, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lee
GGWP. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:23, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * RIP Lee. Farewell to an forecast definer! Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 16:37, September 30, 2017 (UTC)

Farewell Lee. It was fun tracking you! Hurricane Lee Hoping for recovery. 19:22, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like he's gone, unfortunateLEE. Still great to track while it lasted though. Ryan1000 22:50, September 30, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:Near Cuba
No, not another one! This one is at 10/20 and is expected to move over Cuba and Florida. It is possible that this could be Nate. T G  2 0 1 7


 * Can't see this becoming anything too powerful. --Whiplash (talk) 22:45, September 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, I don't see this doing much except for bringing heavy rain to western Caribbean countries such as Cuba and Jamaica, and later on Florida and the Bahamas. It has until early next week to become Nate as upper-level winds will become hostile. Land interaction will probably inhibit development before that though, however SSTs in the region are very warm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:09, September 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Plz no, not another destructive hurricane. I had enough destruction for 1 year. I hope it doesn't form although it's over warm waters. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:00, September 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sigh, now at 20/40. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:30, September 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Chances increased to 30/50. Hopefully we can get Nate out of this one, that isn't too strong. Owen 18:02, September 28, 2017 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Invest'd. This could be a weak Nate as it transverses the east coast of the Florida peninsula before upper-level winds become less favorable. Had enough of storms impacting land... Also, if this invest becomes named, looks like the hurricane streak may finally end. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:14, September 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * This will bring relief to the Atlantic after Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Again, I had enough destruction for the year. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:34, September 29, 2017 (UTC) Edit: The invest is up to 40/50.
 * Down to 40/40. I'm starting to make a doubt that this will form. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:28, September 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down even further to 30/30. This will probably die within the next couple of days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:24, September 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * 20/20. I definitely doubt that this form. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 16:42, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Plummeted to 10/10. It'll die without even forming.  Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 18:18, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, that one busted. Nate will have to wait. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:47, September 30, 2017 (UTC)

Back up to 20/20 due to the formation of a area of low pressure. Upper-level winds are unfavorable and this would have to pull off a Jose '11, Julia '16, Emily (this year) or Otis (this year in the EPac) to become Nate. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:01, October 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/10. Hi! -68.106.0.77 06:44, October 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/0. This busted for good. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:47, October 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:52, October 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:Tropical wave near 60W
Bit long range, but GFS shows another hurricane hitting Florida, making landfall in Tampa. Assuming the current Caribbean system above develops, this will be Ophelia. Could be the western Caribbean October monster we've all been waiting for. Just take it with a grain of salt. Owen 18:02, September 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * It may be 9 days (216 hours) ahead, but as hard as it is to say, we absolutely cannot rule out the possibility of a devastating late-season storm, seeing how unimaginably destructive this season has been thus far. Ryan1000 20:30, September 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * This better not be true. I really had enough of devastating monsters. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:16, September 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed, I had enough destruction for this year. I really hope that we don't wanna see another monster hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 04:38, September 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO with a 0/20 chance. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 14:26, September 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm pretty sure that tropical wave (at 0/10 now) isn't the one shown by models in the Western Caribbean about 7-10 days out. That wave is moving west-northwest into the Bahamas, and is going nowhere near the Caribbean. Putting a new section below for it. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:30, September 30, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:Tropical wave north of Puerto Rico
For the one at 0/10 (previously at 0/20). ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:30, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 0/0. Just like the invest above, I really, really doubt this would form. Looks like Nate will have to wait unfortunately. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 16:44, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * This season is beginning to quiet down for sure now. Nate will likely come during the next couple weeks. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:48, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. The Atlantic has gotten tired all of a sudden. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:47, October 1, 2017 (UTC)