Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why? rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)

IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Isis retired
Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.)  rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. Ryan1000 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001  leeboy100 My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS CPac storm
GFS is showing an small hurricane or TS by its end of the 12z run.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:47, July 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Currently near 0%. All models agree something will at least try to form. Less support now though. YE Pacific Hurricane  11:38, July 30, 2015 (UTC)::10
 * 10%. YE Pacific Hurricane  20:32, July 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) This AOI is moving westward at some 10 mph per the CPHC. Due to unfavorable upper-level winds and disorganization, I do not expect a TC from this. Chances of formation are now near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:46, August 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * This AOI has been dropped off the CPHC TWO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:30, August 3, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #2
GFS has this becoming a TS by day 13. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * After dropping this for a few runs, 12z GFS today brought this to a hurricane in 9 days. YE Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:41, July 26, 2015 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
10/50. Got some banding already and two very nice outflow channels. And is fairly well-organized and is in very favorable conditions for 3 days. If convection persists, this can become a depression within 24 hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * The NHC says conditions around 92E may result in TC formation later this week, but it already looks like a tropical depression IMO. I'm not sure if Guillermo is going to have any (indirect) impacts on the invest, but I think the latter has a decent chance at becoming a hurricane, if not a major. Chances of formation are now 30% for the next two days and 80% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:30, August 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * 92E has gained a lot of organization in the past six hours, and I expect a tropical depression within the next few days. Chances of formation for the next two days have risen to 50%, which no change in the five-day percentages. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:53, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * I am not too excited about this one doing much. Dry air is lurking and the global models aren't too bullish. With the way thing have been going lately, another weak TS is likely, if it develops of course. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:15, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's now 60/80! I see this potentially becoming Hilda, but since it is very likely to develop at this point, I guess it'll only be a weak to moderate TS. I still hope this system tries its hardest though. Better a strong TS/minimal hurricane than another weakling fail like Felicia. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:04, August 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilda
now TS. it going to follow Guillermo's track. it has hurricane in 5-days <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:53, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still a somewhat elongated system and may be attached ITCZ. Dry air looks to be not too favorable after 2-3 days. The NHC's peak intensity of 65 knots could be too high, but if it organizes quickly, it might become a hurricane before then. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:44, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * ATCF up to 45 knts, but with microwave imagery, a case could be made for 50 to 55 knots. Small ITCZ storms tend to have lots of ups and downs. This is likely an "up". But I will admit this has a good shot at becoming a solid Cat 1. Stronger still isn't something I'd bet one due to dry air, but if it can developed a structure that blocks out dry air well like what we've seen storms do furthe east in recent years, I guess a Cat 2/3 is possible. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:22, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hoping this does become a hurricane because Hilda currently stands as the only EPAC TC name to be used at least 6 times without ever reaching hurricane strength. Latest advisory has Hilda's intensity up to 50 kts/1001 mbar, with a forecast peak of 75 kts. Fingers crossed... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:42, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * I actually hadn't realized that...before I thought Erick was the only one, though he did finally make it to a hurricane two years ago, looks like it's Hilda's turn (though Hilda was a hurricane in the Atlantic a few times before 1979, retired in '64). In the Atlantic, Beryl and Ana are the only storms to be used every time since 1979 and never reach hurricane strength, excluding Ana's CPac incarnation last year. Ryan1000 20:57, August 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * we can use 2009's Carlos as an example. it formed in the ITCZ and became a hurricane. also it has some really nice-looking banding features in satellite imagery. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:43, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * I meant by the time Erick was coming around in 2013, that was also the case with Bud and Ernesto back in 2006 (EPac and ATL respectively), but either way it looks like Hilda is going to have her first shot at being a hurricane now too. Ryan1000 02:20, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hilda is still at 50 kts according to ATCF. Sigh... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:55, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * I still hope we see a hurricane from this! C'mon, Hilda, you've got this! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:47, August 7, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilda
Congratulations, Hilda! After 36 years of failing, you finally did it! 80 mph and 984 mbars as of the latest advisory. And like Guillermo, it's expected to pass north of Hawaii and not hit the islands. Ryan1000 22:09, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, YES!!!! Forecast peak of 85 kts as of now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:26, August 7, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF storm #4
ECMWF hints at something in 8 days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Correct me if this isn't the same storm, but this invest is behind Hilda and at 50% for 5 days. Likely to be Ignacio eventually. Ryan1000 21:05, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * I hope we see this become Ignacio. It's got plenty of potential to do so, currently! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:48, August 7, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #3
12z GFS has a storm by day 15, so if this happens, it will be mid-August. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:41, July 26, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado...


 * EPAC
 * Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise.
 * Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager.
 * Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement.
 * Dolores: 0% - It became respectably strong, but if there were any impacts, they were negligible.
 * Enrique: Fail% - Él es el perdedor.
 * Felicia: % - Gets an F-.


 * CPAC
 * Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry)
 * Halola: Currently active
 * Iune: -4% - It failed miserably.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

The Steve has spoken:

EPac:


 * Andres: 0% - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise.


 * Blanca: 2% - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there.


 * Carlos: 5% - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country.


 * Dolores: 0% - It did a nice job at the major part, but impacts, if any, were meager. Baja and SoCal shouldn't get much either.
 * Enrique: 0% - See you in 2021!
 * Felicia: -∞% - Actually, it deserves lower than an F-. It gets a Z. Yeah, that's right, a Z! What an extreme epic fail that deserves a place in the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing!
 * Guillermo: 0% - Other than Hawaiian surf, this didn't cause much impacts other than spinning fish out in the middle of the Pacific ocean.
 * Hilda: ? -We'll see. Looks like a fishspinner, so far.

CPac:


 * Ela: 0% - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin.


 * Halola: 0% - Also failed to affect land.


 * Iune: 0% - Never in a million years.

--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Welp, here I go:

Andres: 0% - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh.

Blanca: 3% - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet...

Carlos: 27% - This one has a higher chance at retirement, Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for another "Category 5 hype". Killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. #CarlosPLZ

Dolores: 0.0001% - FAIL... I'm sorry Dolores, Andres is way better looking than you

Enrique: <1% - Wait, wot? Sadly I would've expected a major from a storm named after my middle name.

FAILecia: Fail% - 0 Chances is enough for a name with FAIL in it.

Gullimero - <2% - these storms keep getting more fail-prone every time. Can't wait to see how much of a FAIL Hilda will be (despite that being my sister's name)

CPac Names

Don't really see any retirements yet, until Hawaii's smallest island disappears from storm surge.

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  16:03, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

odile's fun retirement chances with memes

ayy lmao its my turn!

Andres: -50% - meh.

Blanca: -25% - as puffle says above.

Carlos:  carlos plz% 25% -  CARLOS PLZ! AIN'T NOBODY HAS TIME FO' THAT! still. carlos plz. can get a tiny shot at retirement because of the 17 million pesos on luxury yacht damage

Dolores: 15% - caused a lot of flood damage in the San Diego-Tijusna area.

Enrique: NaN% - HAHAHAHAHA will be suprised if it gets retired. just sayin'

F ail elicia: 💩% - [insert poop emoji here]

Guillermo: ???% - active

cpac

Ela: NaN% - WORST. STORM. EVER.

Halola: 1.5% - well it was a nearly record-breaking storm. i'll stay here.

Iune: NaN% - wat

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC)

Now it is time for my predictions:


 * 1) Andres - 1% - Andres was a true early surprise, and kudos to it for becoming the westernmost May major. While its remnant moisture did bring unseasonable rainfall to Phoenix and cause some power outages in Colorado, these have not been described as extreme. Therefore, I believe Andres will stay.
 * 2) Blanca - 2% - I am impressed that Blanca was able to become the earliest 2nd EPAC hurricane in general and reach the intensity it did. Its remnants brought some wave action to Puerto Vallarta and caused quite a few power outages. However, most of these were fixed within a day. Also, while SoCal did see some flooding from ex-Blanca, most of the rainfall was beneficial for the infamous drought there. Consequently, Blanca should stay as well.
 * 3) Carlos - 6% - Carlos was a little worse than either Andres or Blanca. It downed some trees and billboards around Acapulco. In addition, it sank the Bellísima luxury yacht and killed someone from falling metal. Nevertheless, most of the flooding was not widespread, and there do not seem to be extreme destruction reports from Carlos. As a result, the $1.1 million (2015 USD) price tag should not be enough for retirement.
 * 4) Ela - 0% - It was cool to see the CPAC come alive in the middle of July. But Ela did zilch to land, so you know the drill.
 * 5) Halola - TBA - Still Active
 * 6) Iune - 0% - Aside from being the earliest 3rd named CPAC storm, what did Iune do?
 * 7) Dolores - 1% - Like Andres, it was amazing to see Dolores unexpectedly become a Category 4 so quickly. Most of its impacts so far have been from its associated moisture and not the storm itself. Sure, SoCal saw some incredible rainfall (namely LA and San Diego!) from this that was "historic", but most of the precipitation will be beneficial for the area. As a matter of fact, a persistent wildfire in Cajon Pass was exhausted because of ex-Dolores's moisture. So, Dolores, you are staying put, too.
 * 8) Enrique - 0% - Enrique did surprise me with his persistence against his environment, and even became a tropical storm for a second time. But while Iglesias may have stolen Frank (1992)'s 8th storm ribbon, he did not harm land in the process.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:05, July 22, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan Grand is back:

EPac: CPac: There you go. Ryan1000 20:39, July 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres - 0% - Became pretty strong for such an early-season storm, but it caused no direct damage on land, so it won't be retired.
 * Blanca - 3% - Earliest 2nd (major) hurricane of any EPac season on record, and also the earliest Baja California landfall as well, but overall damage wasn't too severe; if anything the rainfall from it's remnants helped ease up California's drought a little.
 * Carlos - 5% - Slightly worse than Blanca, and Mexico was fortunate Carlos didn't get past category 1 strength as it neared the coastline, but this was no Manuel. It was modest at most, and will be coming back again in 2021.
 * Dolores - 0% - Slightly weaker than Andres, and als a bit farther east, but overall impacts from surf were minor at most.
 * Enrique - 0% - Fail, but at least he didn't fail as bad as Failicia.
 * Failicia - Pun% - << See the name.
 * Guillermo - 0% - Steered well clear of Hawaii, with no known damage or deaths.
 * Hilda - ?? - First hurricane Hilda ever recorded in the EPac, but chances of retirement all depend on if this hits Hawaii or not.
 * Ela - 0% - Nice early start for the CPac, but nothing to speak of regarding impacts.
 * Halola - 2% - Caused 1.2 million in crop damage to southern Japan with no deaths. It was a modest storm at most, and it likely won't be retired.
 * Iune - 0% - See Ela.