Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season

Future Start
I surely hope this season is better than the trash season that was 2017. - Garfield (13/12/17)

predict that 2018 wpac season will be below-average tbh  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 04:59, December 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yeah, it could be below average IMO. Hopefully it has better storms than 2017 though (the only storm I really like from this year's season was Noru). ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  05:16, December 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * I agree that noru was a great storm to track :D but sadly I think below average this year :( but that's good for the people living nearby right?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 05:21, December 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, a break from typhoons is always good for populations. An exception to this could be weak tropical storms striking drought areas. ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  05:26, December 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * true, those are worse than a nice little fish c5 out in the ocean  Ｄ　Ｅ　Ｓ　Ｋ　Ｒ　Ａ　Ａ　Ｔ　Ｉ　Ｎ　Ｇ　Ｏ 05:27, December 14, 2017 (UTC)

HAPPY NEW YEAR ASIA!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ｄ　Ｅ　Ｓ　Ｋ　Ｒ　Ａ　Ａ　Ｔ　Ｉ　Ｎ　Ｇ　Ｏ 15:29, December 31, 2017 (UTC)

Just turned New Year in Hong Kong and China's Pacific coast  Ｄ　Ｅ　Ｓ　Ｋ　Ｒ　Ａ　Ａ　Ｔ　Ｉ　Ｎ　Ｇ　Ｏ 16:01, December 31, 2017 (UTC)

Off topic but shouldn't Maria be pre-empively retired? Ｄ　Ｅ　Ｓ　Ｋ　Ｒ　Ａ　Ａ　Ｔ　Ｉ　Ｎ　Ｇ　Ｏ 19:26, February 8, 2018 (UTC)

Not necessarily. Just because a name is retired in 1 basin doesn't mean it has to be retired in another basinSwirling Magnetar (talk) 23:00, February 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * As Magnetar above said, it doesn't always happen. Karina was added to the EPAC naming lists to replace Kenna after 2002 and it wasn't retired after 2005 when Katrina was retired. However, typhoon Vicente in 2012, which wasn't officially retired due to its impacts was retired and replaced with Lan as the same name was on the EPAC lists that year. I wouldn't say it's likely, but it can't be ruled out either. Nutfield001 (talk) 23:05, February 20, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
carried over from last year.1004 mbar/35 mph.JoeBillyBob (talk) 06:43, January 1, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Agaton
We already have our first storm of the season for PAGASA.JoeBillyBob (talk) 09:44, January 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Early start for PAGASA. Still counted as part of the 2017 season though; this system was recognized by JMA on the 30th of December. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:32, January 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * This could have a good chance of becoming Bolaven (Agaton) by tomorrow. T  G  My Birthday 13:59, January 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well just like Anonymous said, it’s still counted as part of the 2017 season since it formed in 2017. If you want to see more of it, then I’ll leave it right here. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:16, January 1, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 01W (Agaton)
Designated as 01W (Agaton) awhile ago. @68.106.0.77, we have to leave it here because it is now considered part of the 2018 season according to JMA and JTWC. T G  My Birthday 22:37, January 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * Because this storm technically formed at the end of last year as a JMA tropical depression, this is a year crossover storm for the WPac, so this doesn't count as the first storm forming of the 2018 season, even though it's still active in 2018. Anyhow, things aren't looking good for this storm for intensifying much, though it could cause extensive flooding to the central Philippines. Hopefully impacts aren't too bad for them. Ryan1000 23:56, January 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, hopefully Agaton spares the Philippines from destruction and deaths after what Kai-tak and Tembin did. This is probably the first year-crossover system I ever tracked in the WPac. Slight chance that this intensifies to a weak "Bolaven" in the South China Sea. ~  Steve 🎉   2018  is here!  🎆  06:56, January 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bolaven (Agaton)
Its now Bolaven but I believe it has weaken to a td.190.11.233.72 06:28, January 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nope, JMA currently has it up as a 35 knot/40 mph/1002 mbar tropical storm. But the JTWC still has it up as a TD. Expected to continue on a path tracking towards southern Vietnam. Unfortunately, 2 deaths have occurred so far according to Wikipedia's season effects table :( ~  Steve 🎉   2018  is here!  🎆  06:36, January 3, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Bolaven
It died. Still a TD on JMA's weather map, but should be completely gone soon. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:41, January 4, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Bolaven
Now it's dead. BTW, there's an active system in the SWIO (Ava) that may need some attention, because it's about to run parallel to the eastern Madagascar coast and be potentially destructive there. I wish the SHem forums would get more activity... ~  Steve 🎉   2018  is here!  🎆  06:46, January 5, 2018 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
This is interesting. We have a very equatorial invest, located at only 1.3N, and in the same region as Vamei. Could this repeat Vamei's stunt and become a tropical cyclone here? It's medium chance (code orange) on the JTWC outlook, BTW. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:13, January 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nope, it dissipated. But it went as low as 1.1°N before it moved north and died. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:33, January 16, 2018 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
Another VERY equatoral invest (2.2 N) on jtwc.192.171.48.37 21:58, January 25, 2018 (UTC)


 * It's dead without becoming anything. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:42, January 28, 2018 (UTC)

02W.SANBA
Another equatorial invest that could be a re-tembin or Kai-tak for the philippines.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:31, February 6, 2018 (UTC)

Jumped to code orange quite quickly,this could be bad.No.1 Mobile (talk) 01:44, February 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Code red, TCFA issued. This invest is currently located way out to sea near 150E. Potential Sanba does look like a future Philippines threat. I hope it isn't as bad as Kai-tak or Tembin. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:04, February 8, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
JMA has offically declared this a TD.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:42, February 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 02W
Officially declared a TD by the JTWC at around 03:00 UTC on Feb 9, still forecast to move through the Caroline Islands into the Philippines. Honestly hope it isn't a re-Tembin. Nutfield001 (talk) 19:33, February 9, 2018 (UTC)

JTWC now has this up as a 50mph TS. JMA still has it up as a 35mph TD, but is forecast to strengthen to become Sanba around 2100 UTC tomorrow as it approaches the Philippines. Won't be making a new header until it strengthens into a TS in RSMC Tokyo's database. Nutfield001 (talk) 23:01, February 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Agreed with that. This storm is now forecast by the JTWC to become an 80 mph cat 1 typhoon hitting central Mindanao, the southernmost island of the Philippines, around Monday night or Tuesday morning. Hopefully Sanba-to-be isn't too bad for the island. Ryan1000 01:34, February 11, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sanba
Intensified to a TS according to both JMA and JTWC. Also Sanba isn't forecast to be a typhoon now due to shear. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:02, February 11, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sanba (Basyang)
Now named by PAGASA, currently at 35kts (40mph) on both 10-min and 1-min winds, so yeah we won't see a typhoon out of this as it's forecast to enter an area with higher shear. Nutfield001 (talk) 13:36, February 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yep it looks like it will stay weak. It could maybe restrengthen very little after crossing the Philippines and entering the South China Sea. Otherwise, don't expect much intensity change. Hopefully this is no Kai-tak or Tembin repeat, or (god-forbid) Washi-repeat. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, February 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * JMA isn't forecasting any intensity change, however JTWC forecasts say that Sanba might get a slight buff, but otherwise it looks like it has peaked in intensity. Signals are being issued across parts of Mindanao and the Visayas with Signal #2 issued in Surigao del Sur, but hopefully this won't be a repeat of any of the storms above. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:45, February 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Thank god it will stay weak for its life. I hope its not a destructive and deadly storm. --70.190.21.73 02:34, February 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Unfourtunately,4 deaths have already been caused.No.1 Mobile (talk) 13:26, February 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep :(, current forecasts from JMA and JTWC show that Sanba is currently crossing through the Visayas and Mindanao with slight weakening forecast from the JTWC as it does so. As soon as this system enters the South China Sea it's expected to restrengthen slightly before dying out. Nutfield001 (talk) 13:57, February 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep :(, current forecasts from JMA and JTWC show that Sanba is currently crossing through the Visayas and Mindanao with slight weakening forecast from the JTWC as it does so. As soon as this system enters the South China Sea it's expected to restrengthen slightly before dying out. Nutfield001 (talk) 13:57, February 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sanba (Basyang)
Sorry to hear about the 4 deaths. :/ I hope it doesn't rise any further. Anyway, it's now down to a tropical depression according to both JMA and JTWC. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:46, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still has a minimal chance of restrengthening per JTWC forecasts, but otherwise this is dying out. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:53, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Sanba is continuing to weaken and will eventually dissipate over the South China Sea on Friday and into Saturday. Can't determine whether the depression has lost its tropical status or not. Nutfield001 (talk) 18:39, February 14, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Sanba (Basyang)
dead and gone,but the death toll is currently 14.No.1 Mobile (talk) 02:40, February 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's now off the JMA page, JTWC still tracking it though, but won't be long until they issue their final advisory. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:30, February 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC has now issued their final advisory. Now it's fully dead. Nutfield001 (talk) 09:35, February 15, 2018 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits and NRL, and located just east of the southern Philippines. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:04, February 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Dead and gone. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, February 12, 2018 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
Now up on JTWC, located east-southeast of Mindanao Island in the Philippines and has a low chance of developing. Nutfield001 (talk) 20:15, February 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * May develop into Caloy over the next few days, but I don't know about Jelawat. Models aren't enthusiastic with this. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:21, February 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Code Orange per JTWC, this could potentially become Caloy or even Jelawat throughout the next few days. Nutfield001 (talk) 22:15, February 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well you beat me by a few minutes. It is coming close to the Phillippines, but unless it rapidly develops, this invest may not be powerful, but rather a weak depression or tropical storm, but I wouldn't rule out a potential deadly cyclone this early in the year. ArrDFe25 (talk) 22:32, February 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Downgraded to code yellow, the chance of formation is becoming unlikely now. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:33, February 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * It could still become a brief Caloy, but I wouldn't really count on it. Jelawat will have to wait. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:32, February 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead. Nutfield001 (talk) 12:29, February 24, 2018 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
popped up out of nowhere with code orange on JTWC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:35, March 16, 2018 (UTC)


 * This seems to have some Jelawat potential over the long run. ~  Steve ☘   Happy St.  Patrick's Day!  🌈  22:47, March 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well I expected an invest in this basin just yesterday. That satelitte imagery of that invest I saw on the JTWC lookout looked suspicious, when it wasn't marked as an invest. Nevertheless, I'd expect some development from this invest. -- Roy 25  Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 23:13, March 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now code red on JTWC, and also TCFA issued by JTWC. Jelawat/Caloy is about to arrive! -- Roy 25  Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 02:50, March 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Downgraded to code orange on the JTWC. Lol this invest is about to be a bust. -- Roy 25  Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 15:32, March 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * TCFA has also been cancelled by the JTWC. -- Roy 25  Happy St. Patrick's Day!!! 15:40, March 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * I was a bit too busy to see the TCFA. I guess Jelawat has to wait... Still code orange BTW. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, March 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't write off Jelawat quite yet. GFS still forms it later on and makes it a Category 2-3 Typhoon. I guess only time will tell. - Garfield
 * Back up to code red on JTWC.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:19, March 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * TCFA reissued as well, we could see Jelawat form from this very soon. Nutfield001 (talk) 15:58, March 23, 2018 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Now a JMA TD, 1006 mbar. I guess the system made me eat my words lol. This could actually become Jelawat, and maybe reach a modest intensity as well. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:55, March 24, 2018 (UTC)