Forum:2017 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The season hasn't yet begun, but the forum is up for anyone who wants to make pre-season predictions. As for the betting pools, there is a separate tab at the top of the screen that I added a while back that you can use to navigate them (still making them atm). Ryan1000 04:03, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Alright, betting pools are all up, except for the 2017-18 SHem season, since that's still got a ways to go. Updated the tabs. Ryan1000 05:51, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * As can be expected this time of year, there is a ton of uncertainty about what the 2017 AHS will hold, especially because we have no clue what the ENSO will be like. Some long-range models are suggesting warm neutral to El Nino conditions next fall, which would likely mean a less active Atlantic season, but there is still over 6 months to go until the season, so I'm not going to bet on anything just yet - I'll probably wait until March or so to submit my betting pools, because by then we'll get an idea of the ENSO state we'll be in by the season. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM PAULA FORM! 16:26, November 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * The La Nina is no longer, present and the ENSO-neutral conditions have finally come. Most models are showing an El Niño by the peak of the season. We could be looking at yet another below-average season, leaving 2016 as the only active season in a time frame of four years. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:36, February 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * CSU released their April forecast last week, and they predict an El Nino will develop once again this year. They expect a below-normal season of 11-4-2, which coincides with TSR's forecast the day before. Ryan1000 15:16, April 11, 2017 (UTC)

The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:17, June 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Off Africa
Another wave is emerging off of Africa, this is at 0/20 for now, but both of the global models are already picking up on this. GFS makes this a formidable hurricane moving off of or making landfall on the U.S. east coast, while the Euro takes this farther south, passing through the straits of Florida and into the GoM as a strong hurricane. It may be 10 days out, but if both of them agree on this becoming something serious, this may be a big storm to watch out for in the long run. Ryan1000 10:04, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This will probably be the first major of the season. This one will be one to watch as it comes near the U.S. We don't need a re-Irene or a Floyd. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:07, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Future Harvey will be one to watch. It would actually be interesting if Gert became a hurricane and future Harvey did as well. There's been two Hurricane Harvey's - one being a C1 and the other being a C4. Maybe something in between for this incarnation if conditions permit. Owen 19:59, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:27, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks a bit concerning in the long run. The models that Ryan mentioned look scary and we should stay tuned on how future-Harvey might pan out. This could have a pretty likely chance at being this season's first major. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:56, August 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now this AOI is a matter of concern. The Euro takes this to the Antilles and to Florida (and eventually to GoM), while the GFS takes this to the eastern seaboard of the U.S., but will eventually make landfall in Nova Scotia. I want future Harvey to become a major, but I hope this won't become a re-Irene/Floyd, or even a re-Igor/Juan. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:18, August 13, 2017 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
It's a possibility that the Atlantic could end up with four hurricanes in a row. Franklin became a hurricane, Gert is likely to become one, and the Euro and its ensembles indicate that 91L and the wave after it (future Harvey, then Irma?) could become hurricanes. Atlantic should jump above average soon in ACE. Last time that happened was in 2012 (Kirk, Leslie, Michael, Nadine) which was later in the season which makes it all the more interesting. Owen 14:40, August 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is going to get pretty interesting...what if the Atlantic was aware that I was sick of the continuous TSs before Franklin? 😝 This basin is going to explode looks like. Here comes another active season. This AOI is up to 20/60 BTW and Harvey could be a big one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:41, August 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * The two global models have backed off on this in their latest runs, although it's been upped 30/60, but they're getting more hyped on the wave behind it. Either way, the Atlantic is definitely going to be heating up in the next week or two. Ryan1000 05:05, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Conditions will become less favorable once it moves to the Caribbean Sea. It has 2 days before Friday to become something. I personally want Harvey to come from the 0/20 wave over Africa because that one has plenty of room to become something significant (but hopefully not destructive). This wave and the one behind it will only be TSs at most, that is, if they develop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:51, August 15, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now this also became 30/40. Whoever wins this race will be TD 9 — not sure if Harvey though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:42, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 40/50. NHC no longer mentions any unfavorable conditions though. If this can survive any potentially unfavorable conditions in the eastern Caribbean, a big threat may loom. :/ Also, I can see every one of these AOIs potentially developing into named storms. This one can become as strong as a hurricane (depending on the eastern Caribbean environment), the wave behind it might only be a TS due to unfavorable conditions north of the Lessers and the one that just moved off Africa has the biggest chance at being the season's first major. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:50, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/60. It has a chance to become Harvey once it's a TS. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:42, August 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 60/70. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:31, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * 80/90, Harvey should be coming from this AOI. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:18, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
NHC says they will start issuing advisories on this storm, potential tropical cyclone nine, at 11AM EDT. Ryan1000 14:07, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Hello Nine. It will be likely to be a TS and a hurricane. I won't be surprised if this gets stronger. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Current NHC forecast makes it a cat 1 landfall in Belize, in part due to it's expected rapid movement through the Caribbean, but if it can slow down it might have more time to get stronger than cat 1 intensity, which Earl of last year and Franklin a week ago couldn't do. Ryan1000 15:39, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * And (Steve) Harvey is almost here. (Or maybe Irma, if the other invest miraculously forms faster than this one; highly unlikely though.) This storm reminds me of Ernesto in 2012. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:41, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey
Now a TS! Winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1004 mbar. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:50, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

(Edit conflict) Officially upgraded! I said greetings to Gert, so now I'll say hello to Harvey. Unfortunately it's heading towards Mexico, similar to where Franklin did. This could be trouble. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 20:55, August 17, 2017 (UTC)

This is somewhat off-topic, but a meteorologist at The Weather Channel made a slip-up while announcing the formation of Harvey, that I found amusing. "We have a brand new Tropical Storm Harvey, it's name............. is Harvey, in case you didn't hear me the first time." I don't think it was really necessary to post on here, but it's just something I found amusing that I wanted to share. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 22:14, August 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's no longer forecast to become a hurricane, as it's expected to pass closer to Honduras before eventually hitting Belize, and conditions are somewhat unfavorable in it's path, both of the global models see Harvey entraining dry air and weakening, or even dissipating, in the central Caribbean. Ryan1000 22:32, August 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm Warnings are issued for the Windward Islands. Sorry to say but I doubt this would become a hurricane. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:49, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this survives the shear, this actually has a small chance of becoming a hurricane when it enters favorable conditions in the western Caribbean. But that will depend on how much land it encounters when there. There's a slight chance it could move a bit north of Honduras instead of landfalling there, and that would make hurricane status more likely. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:55, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Neither of the global models or the HWRF seem to make Harvey particularly strong as it moves through the Caribbean due to shear coming from the ULL that's also expected to stop 92L from developing, and some dry air from South America being entrained into Harvey's circulation. However, the GFS and HWRF do make Harvey somewhat stronger, if not possibly exploding, over the favorable conditions in the BoC after it crosses the Yucatan. In fact, the GFS expects steering currents to be weak by that time and Harvey could get fairly strong there if it doesn't immediately move towards a second landfall in mainland Mexico after striking northern Honduras and Belize. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey is still the same (40 mph/1005 mbar). It will struggle until Sunday (which is also my birthday BTW :D) and after that time, it could really intensify. If it survives the shear and dry air well, a hurricane seems likely when it is near Belize and the Yucatan. I'm a bit unsure if this will actually survive to the BOC intact due to all the land in its way. If it goes a bit more southern than the forecast, this could landfall in Honduras or even northern Nicaragua which, along with the Yucatan, will prevent it from reaching the BOC. The cut-off low in the Gulf of Mexico mentioned in the discussion could prevent it from going that much south though. If the track shifts more northern I could see a stronger version of Franklin or even a re-Karl in the BOC being possible. Right now, Harvey reminds me of Ernesto ('12) except it likely won't reach C2 status before the Yucatan. This might be like a hybrid of Ernesto and Karl ('10) if it does reach the BOC intact and explode. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * A headlong landfall in Honduras/Nicaragua and not reaching the BoC at all is looking less likely at this point. Harvey's latest NHC forecast track is showing what the GFS was showing before, steering currents are expected to weaken drastically when it crosses the Yucatan, and the shear currently over Harvey is expected to weaken significantly by that time as well. In their forecast discussion, NHC even states the possibility of Harvey reaching (or very nearing) hurricane intensity before it hits the Yucatan. The dissipation in the open Caribbean by the Euro is in part forecast due to Harvey's rapid forward speed of 21 mph, but if Harvey can hold together for a few more days at that speed, it'll slow down and be over less shear in the area by the Yucatan and BoC. In fact, the 00Z GFS turns Harvey as far north as the Texas/Mexico border and becoming a fairly strong hurricane in the GoM. Ryan1000 10:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey has weakened to 35 kt/1007 mbar. Harvey could be sheared apart before getting to the Yucatan. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 16:38, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * The NHC notes that windspeed could be generous in the discussion. This could degenerate back to a wave if it becomes even more disorganized. I would give a 50/50 chance of it surviving to Sunday night intact. In fact, that chance might be even lower if I'm overestimating Harvey. After it goes through that shear, a hurricane could occur right before the Yucatan landfall. I'm a bit concerned for Mexico and Belize and what impacts Harvey could do there in the long run (especially even further out when it could move onshore mainland Mexico from the Gulf or BOC). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:33, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey
(Un)fortunately, shear has not been kind to Harvey these past few days. Even though the system will be entering a more favorable environment within the next day per the NHC, I will not be surprised if Harvey is already a tropical wave. Winds have decreased to 30 knots (35 mph), with the pressure remaining at 1007 mbar (hPa). As a matter of fact, given how fast the now-depression is moving to the west, it may not even take full advantage of the conditions ahead of it. For those who are curious, no watches or warnings have been issued for Mexico or Central America yet because it is plausible that Harvey may simply degenerate into a tropical wave, as I acknowledged earlier. At most, I am expecting Harvey to attain winds of 50 knots (60 mph), with a pressure of ~999 mbar (hPa). Steve, in order for Harvey to even reach the Yucatán Peninsula coastline, it will have to face 30 to 50 knots of wind shear. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:11, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Harvey
lol.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:43, August 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well that was a flop. Can't say I was entirely surprised though, Harvey was moving so fast through the Caribbean that it wasn't entirely unexpected it could open into a wave, Chantal '13 did that too. It still could regenerate later on though, but it won't get strong if it does at this point. Ryan1000 03:09, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'd say it failed to last longer than the forecast. Hopefully Harvey will be used for a much stronger and long-lasting storm. Hi!-68.106.0.77 03:12, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh well... but as Ryan says, I wouldn't be surprised if it came back next week, albeit as a weak system. Kiewii 04:00, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's on the TWO now. It's at 30/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:36, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Convection appears to be refiring. NHC gives it 50/60, and recon is scheduled to investigate. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:43, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 50/70. I hope it regenerates somehow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:15, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * It probably will due to a favorable environment in the western Caribbean. The degeneration of Harvey did not really surprise me. That shear was just a bit too powerful for a weak tropical storm to handle, and it's quick forward speed didn't help either. I could see a stronger TS occurring right before the Yucatan landfall if it regenerates by tomorrow and takes advantage of the more favorable environment . P.S. Wish me a happy birthday. :D ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:17, August 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80. Not sure if this regenerates. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:11, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Most models show this making landfall as a moderate TS to strong C1 somewhere between Tampico and Corpus Christi by next week. This spells trouble for both Eastern Mexico and Texas. Still 50/80, by the way. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:18, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70/90 and will likely regenerate by tonight or at latest, tomorrow before it moves onshore onto the Yucatan. Even if it doesn't redevelop before the landfall, the Gulf of Mexico is conducive for regeneration and/or strengthening. I hope the people in Eastern Mexico/southern Texas prepare for this... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:16, August 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey is currently passing over the Yucatán Peninsula. The 00z ECMWF shows it slamming into Corpus Christi, doing a loop and whacking Galveston before dissipating over Arkansas. HWRF and its counterpart HWRF-P aren't much better, showing high-end C2 landfalls at Corpus Christi and Tampico respectively. HMON shows similar intensity but brings it into the sparsely-populated Texas-Tamaulipas border. Even the 06z GFS has enthusiastically jumped on the bandwagon and now shows a major hitting Texas. If Harvey manages to pull itself together this quickly, either Texas or Tamaulipas is in for deep trouble. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:39, August 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 90/near 100. An interesting excerpt from the TWO: "Interests in northeastern Mexico and along the Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system, as it could produce storm surge and tropical storm or hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast, and very heavy rainfall across portions of central and eastern Texas from Friday through the weekend." Never before do I think I have seen the NHC mention the possibility of a system bringing hurricane impacts to an area before the system in question even (re-)formed as a tropical cyclone. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:20, August 22, 2017 (UTC)

Now 100/100. Basically almost guaranteed to reform. But it's not being upgraded because it doesn't have a closed center yet. And they're saying it will likely be a hurricane. Okay, then. Leeboy100 Dean, 10. Andrew, 25 21:24, August 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * Um, I'm seeing it as 90/100. This might redevelop to a TD or TS as soon as tonight. A hurricane is looking possible and those in the path (from northeastern Mexico to southwestern Louisiana) should prepare themselves. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:10, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey pretty likely to redevelop. I hope it attains hurricane status before its landfall. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:56, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I mean... it would be cool to see the first Hurricane Harvey since 1993... but is this really the kind of situation where we want a storm to become a hurricane? When it's threatening land? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:33, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Agreed. 68, I wouldn't wish for a hurricane in this situation. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:45, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Ex-Harvey seems to be taking a northward turn and there's a good chance it could become a hurricane before hitting the Texas coast, likely near Corpus Christi, because it will slow down as it approaches land so it has more time to intensify, and prolonged rains will cause flood threats in Texas, as well as surrounding areas in northeastern Mexico and southwestern Louisiana. Let's just hope Harvey (when it comes back) doesn't get too strong before its upcoming Texas landfall. Ryan1000 02:16, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Advisories will likely be initiated at 10 p.m. CDT, two hours from now. The TWO mentions a possibility of a hurricane watch being issued. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:52, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Redevelopment extremely likely at this moment with a chance of hurricane status. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:36, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey (2nd time)
And NHC will issue advisories again at 10 PM CDT. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:45, August 23, 2017 (UTC)


 * Per latest advisory, a lot of watches were issued. A storm surge watch is in effect for Port Mansfield to High Island a hurricane watch for north of Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass and a tropical storm watch is in effect for Boca De Catan in Mexico to Port Mansfield in Texas, and north of San Luis Pass to High Island. This is becoming a significant weather event for Texas and northeast Mexico, but for now Harvey is forecast to peak at 70 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:54, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * This looks like a major flooding threat to Texas, due to the forecast stalling it over southeastern Texas. I hope it is not too destructive there. A hurricane could be really possible before landfall so they must prepare themselves. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:27, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is taking a similar path to Bret of 1999, combined with Allison. The way it is moving northward towards Texas is much like Bret, and the stalling over Texas is much like Allison. This is not looking good, and if this is true, we could be looking at the worst hurricane in Texas since Ike. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:47, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey won't get anywhere near as strong as Bret did in 1999 (cat 1 is probably as far as it'll go), but it's larger size and slower movement could mean a lot of flooding in southeastern Texas, even though the worst of Harvey should remain west of the Houston area. Despite that, this isn't something to be taken lightly and it could be damaging for the region this weekend. Ryan1000 23:24, August 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hello Harvey (again). It isn't forecasted to be a hurricane yet... but, hurricane watches are in effect just in case Harvey intensifies into a hurricane. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 23:31, August 23, 2017 (UTC)

I'm hearing that some areas in Texas may see up to 3 feet of rain from Harvey. New Orleans could also see heavy rain, not Katrina-like (obviously), but this is looking like a really bad situation may be unfolding. Leeboy100 Andrew, 25 (1992-2017) 02:06, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * The latest U.S. rainfall forecast sees Texas getting drenched from Harvey. We may see even 15 inches of rainfall there. This is slowly becoming a big threat for TX, to be honest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:19, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey is still not a TS yet as of the latest advisory. Maybe the struggle has something to do with the depression's relatively disorganized structure. Texas really needs to prepare for a major flood event which could potentially unfold. This gives me a reminder of Allison from 2001 and I really hope Harvey is not that bad. A hurricane still looks very possible; the Hurricane Center is now forecasting one. But we should not wish for a hurricane, for obvious reasons. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:11, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey (2nd time)
Back up to TS status. 40 mph/1002. Pressure is pretty low in correlation with the winds. At some point I think the winds will catch up and over the warm waters of the Gulf, Harvey has the potential to pull some surprises and I think that if he goes through RI, you absolutely cannot rule out this thing becoming our first major and potentially the first major hurricane landfall in the U.S. since Wilma, which is what the HWRF has been depicting. I have a bad feeling. Owen 04:52, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Forecast shows now a hurricane as it hits Texas. This is going to be bad for them. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 05:29, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * The landfall location has also shifted farther south, towards the Corpus Christi area (which hasn't seen a direct hit from a hurricane since category 3 Celia of 1970), but coastal impacts probably won't be as bad as inland flooding from Harvey, since it's winds won't be as high as the rain it'll bring. Ryan1000 06:07, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * The advisory from 5AM EDT (4AM CDT) has knocked Harvey's pressure down to 995 mbars, but Harvey's organization has dramatically improved over the past few hours and NHC notes that the 45 mph windspeed estimate is likely conservative; recon is currently en route to investigate Harvey. The NHC forecast now expects an 85 mph hurricane, with hurricane warnings now in effect for Texas, and the track forecast now takes Harvey making landfall, but after landfall he's expected to reverse direction and move back over the GOM as the ridge and steering currents collapse, meaning Harvey could be the first storm since Allison to make landfall in Texas and move back over the GOM again. To make matters worse, the NHC's SHIPS model indicates a staggering 45% chance that Harvey could undergo rapid intensification before landfall. You're right Owen, Harvey is rapidly pulling itself together and it could become a hurricane as soon as tonight at this rate, and possibly a cat 2 or even 3 before making landfall in Texas on Saturday. But anything past cat 3 is probably too far, though I am impressed Harvey managed to get itself together this fast. Ryan1000 10:27, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * God damn, 8 am advisory has him even higher at 65/986. We know what Ike did as a Cat 2, Harvey could be worse for Texas if stronger on top of the stalling and flooding. Today should be the last day to prepare in Texas and if told to evacuate hopefully they do do it, fill up on gas, get their prescriptions filled if need be and have many days of extra food and water. Harvey is outperforming ALL of the models at this stage. It's been a long time since we saw a rapidly intensifying tropical cyclone in the GOM headed for the states. Side note, GFS now brings Harvey down to 940 mbar at landfall! That would be catastrophic, and he'd be joining Don as a retirement contender. I'm seeing a really bad situation building for Texas here if these trends continue. Owen 12:14, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * 15 milibar pressure drop in only 6 hours? Woah! If that keeps up, Harvey will be at 941 mbars in the next 18 hours, which would be roughly a category 4 storm. Looks like this might have a chance to become as strong as Bret '99 after all. Owen, I don't think Don will be retired just because the U.S. president has his name, we saw how Bill was used in 1997 while Bill Clinton was our president at the time, and Bill wasn't retired, so Don probably won't either. But Harvey is rapidly looking like it could be a serious contender for retirement due to impact, and he could even end the record 12-year drought the U.S. has had without any major hurricane landfalls at the rate he's going. Corpus Christi also might see their first major hurricane in 47 years if Harvey gets as strong as the GFS is anticipating. Ryan1000 13:16, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

(←) Recon coming in for another center pass. Previous pass was 55-60 knots, 984 mbars. I won't be surprised if Harvey does become our first USA major hurricane landfall since 2005. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:11, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Storm Surge Watches and Warnings are in effect for Texas in <span style="background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;font-size:15.2px;font-variant-ligatures:inherit;font-variant-caps:inherit;">P <span style="background-color:initial;font-family:inherit;font-size:15.2px;font-variant-ligatures:inherit;font-variant-caps:inherit;">ort Mansfield to San Luis Pass . Hurricane Warnings are in effect for the same area. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 14:28, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Speak of the devil, I was right. NHC now forecasts Harvey to be a major hurricane when he makes landfall on the coast. Owen 14:57, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Pain in the ass to my family this storm is. Father and his fiance were supposed to head down to Corpus Christi this weekend to help her mother move to the state of Maine. Looks like this is not going to be happening now. Seems hesitant not to go since booked time off from work but I told him that this is going to be a major event for the city and state and not worth it to go right now. Feel back because she is going to probably have to evacuate away from her home which could very well get damaged. --Whiplash (talk) 15:55, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Also it is quite possible this storm could intensify into a Cat 4 and a weak 5 would not be impossible. (Although unlikely at the moment) Not sure seen this kind of RI in a system in the Gulf since Rita in 2005. --Whiplash (talk) 16:15, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't want to induce panic, but it's best to be prepared for the worst and to hope for the best. If anyone is still unaware how incredibly dangerous this situation could possibly be, we could be looking at the storm that dethrones Katrina from the #1 spot of the most costliest hurricanes of all time. The thought of a potential Category 4+ hurricane making landfall along with it potentially dropping Alison-esque rain totals is very hard to process, this could certainly well be possible. If Harvey feeds off the brown ocean effect and maintains a strong intensity inland, it's going to be bad. Owen 16:39, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Harvey
Update statement just released, 70 kts/981 mbar. Special advisory to follow shortly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:58, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Gah you beat me by a few minutes. Well damn, that happened faster than I thought. Upped to 80 mph/981 mbars as recon investigated Harvey. This thing is absolutely exploding right now and the folks near Corpus Christi better start evacuating. Ryan1000 17:01, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is getting to be one highly dangerous storm. Harvey looks to be on track to be among the costliest hurricanes ever if the forecast of it becoming a major and stalling over Texas pans out. This is one of the scariest Atlantic storms I've tracked along with Sandy and Matthew. I hope Texas is prepared for this potentially cataclysmic hurricane and all evacuations, etc. should now be finishing up. Combine Allison-esque stalling over Texas, and a major hurricane, and you got what could be one of the most horrible storms in U.S. history unfolding. Wouldn't even be very surprised if the eventual damage rivals or even exceeds Katrina. I'm just so scared about this. 😰 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC update released, 85 mph/979 mbar. Now expected to reach winds of 125 mph prior to landfall. If this thing becomes anything further, we have our first C4 landfall in the U.S. since Charley in 2004. Owen 17:51, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * The correct term to describe this storm for Texas would probably be, um...Harvegeddon. But with winds increasing this fast, it's possible it could be a major hurricane by tonight and a cat 4 by tomorrow. The landfall location has also shifted from Corpus Christi northward to around Port Lavaca and Victoria, but anywhere in the path of this storm needs to watch out. All of the reliable models forecast 10+ inches of rain in Texas from this thing, so as bad as coastal storm surge could be, flash floods are a definite given Harvey's expected stalled motion after it makes landfall in Texas. Ryan1000 18:16, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * One of my friends once said that this naming list was cursed; I disputed his claim at the time, citing that no names were retired from this list until its fourth use saw Floyd and Lenny get the boot (though to be fair, Bret and Gert should both have been axed after their 1993 incarnations)... but I'm starting to think he might be right. In addition to the aforementioned storms from 1993 and 1999, this list was also used for the 2005 season, and then the 2011 season brought with it Hurricane Irene. Now we have Harvey threatening to end the U.S. major hurricane drought (which was, coincidentally, started by another storm bearing a name formerly from this list: Wilma) with potentially one of the most destructive natural disasters in Texan history.
 * It's surreal to think that Harvey was a minimal TS flop only four or five days ago... now it could possibly unseat Bret's 1999 incarnation as the strongest hurricane to strike Texas since... at least Celia, I think? Maybe even Carla... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:51, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lmao, look at this model from the NAM for Harvey. --Whiplash (talk) 19:15, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * What is also ridiculous about this storm is that some models have it being pushed back offshore and then regenerating into a minimal hurricane and smacking Louisiana in a second landfall. --Whiplash (talk) 19:16, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) This naming list didn't have any retirees until it's fourth usage in 1999, but since then, it's been a fairly unlucky list, though the most cursed Atlantic naming list has to be list 5 (the 2013 season list, scheduled for 2019), because that naming list has the most retired names out of every Atlantic naming list, with 13 names axed from it, and there still has yet to be one time list 5 was used to have not retired names. 1983 had Alicia, 1989 had Hugo, 1995 had Luis, Marilyn, Opal, and Roxanne, 2001 had Allison, Iris, and Michelle, 2007 had Dean, Felix, and Noel, and 2013, as inactive as it was, had Ingrid axed. Who knows what 2019 will bring...anyways, back to Harvey, it's organization continues to improve, I wouldn't be surprised if it's a category 2 hurricane by the next advisory, and a cat 3 this evening. If Harvey becomes a cat 4 before landfall, he'd top Celia (which was the last major hurricane to directly hit Corpus Christi) and be the strongest Texas hit since Carla, but since the area where Harvey is making landfall is more populated than it was in the past, damage will be much worse for Harvey than it was at the time Celia and Carla struck. However, I have doubts Harvey will rival the 30 billion dollar destruction of Ike of 2008, the costliest disaster in Texas history, because 1) Harvey won't directly hit Houston like Ike did, and 2) Harvey is also a smaller storm (hurricane force winds only go 25 miles out from the center, TS force winds go 90 miles out, Ike was more than 400 miles across, leading to a monstrous storm surge for the Galveston/Houston area from him), but Harvey will still be a very damaging storm regardless. Ryan1000 19:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * See in my opinion Harvey doesn't have to directly hit Houston much of the moisture is going to be east of wherever it makes landfall meaning most of the moisture will get dumped over the city added to the surge destruction on the coast we will be probably looking at one of Texas' most formidable hurricanes maybe not quite Ike but close. This will almost certainly be south Texas' worst modern hurricane. --Whiplash (talk) 19:26, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Harvey's definitely looking to be a very damaging storm for Texas, but 30 billion is probably a bit much, the heaviest rain is probably going to fall just to the southwest of the Houston area, especially in the region around Victoria, El campo, and Ganado, but still, it's likely we're going to see a lot of damage even if it doesn't top Ike. The worst storm surge will be at or just north of the Corpus Christi area, while the heavier rains will be in the aforementioned cities just southwest of Houston. Ryan1000 19:43, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

This is a very bad situation that's unfolding. Very, very bad. This will very likely break our 12-year major hurricane drought, which I had a feeling would happen this year. This could be one of the most catastrophic hurricanes we've seen in the United States in quite a few years. We saw what Ike did to similar areas in Texas, but Harvey will be stronger and slower-moving. Also, I'd like to mention that, in the betting pools, I said I think Harvey would be the strongest storm of the season. I called for it to be a Category 4 at its peak, and some of the models are taking it to that strength. I had a bad feeling about Matthew last year when it formed, and I have had a bad feeling about Harvey for months. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 20:10, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I've seen Gustav, Ike, Sandy, and Matthew. This is the only storm in my life that I know something bad is guaranteed to happen. Harvey unfortunately will break the major hurricane landfall streak, ending it at 11 years, 10 months, and one day (temporarily). T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:17, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * 4 PM CDT advisory is out, Harvey's winds are still 85 mph but the pressure has fallen slightly to 976 mbars. Harvey already has a well-defined eye and it's very likely to become a major hurricane tonight or tomorrow morning.Ryan1000 20:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

An eye has now completely visible on Infrared satellites and radar. I'll be surprised if this isn't upgraded to at least a Category 2 in the next advisory. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:57, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow. This is turning out into a monster. I hope this won't become U.S.'s version of Haiyan (storm surge-wise; oh, it also starts with H), but most of all I hope this won't be Galveston 2.0 (evacuations are ongoing though, so I expect a lower death toll). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:27, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

New advisory should be coming out in a little bit. Let's see what happens. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 23:29, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh no, this is going to be bad for Texas. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 23:32, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * No change in intensity, yet. Initial intensity remains at 75 kts as of the moment, until data from the other Air Force flight comes. Pressure now at 974 mb. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:59, August 24, 2017 (UTC)

Advisory just came out. No change in winds, though the pressure has gone down 2 millibars. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 00:02, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Still won't be surprised if this monster gets upgraded to a C2 in the next advisory even though the strengthening appears to have stalled a bit. Texas should beware Harvey's fury like Lee's siggy said. This could get really bad, real quick. Forecast track is now showing a reemergence into the GOM as a TS on Tuesday. Like I said earlier, combine Allison '01 and a major hurricane and you have a scary, frightening potential catastrophe. This is going to be terribad for Texas. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:26, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey's eye recently disappeared under a massive convective burst, so I suspect that's what paused the intensification trend. I have a feeling that Harvey will resume strengthening once the eye re-emerges. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:42, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wow. Never expected Harvey would intensify THAT much. Forecasters predicting almost a Cat 4 :O (If you see, Harvey is trending worldwide on Twitter! I can see plenty forecasts, advisories and even a few Steve Harvey jokes) STAY SAFE TEXAS! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 00:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Structure of the storm appears to be getting messy again. Might reorganize but this may rule out a Category 4 storm, and hopefully a major. --Whiplash (talk) 02:03, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * The first potential landfalling major hurricane, this is going to be disastrous. One woman died after her house collapsed on her. Texas better prepare because if not, then it'll cause a lot of deaths and we don't want that. Its intensity is at 85 mph/974 mbar. And here's the image of Harvey right now. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 02:23, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey's organization has slipped lately, it looked like it was going to become a major hurricane by now, but it's eye became filled in the last few hours, which has caused his intensification to level off somewhat. However, it should re-organize itself by tomorrow and become a major hurricane before hitting near Port Arkansas or Corpus Christi, though it's not as likely Harvey will become a strong cat 4 at this point. Had Harvey's eye not been cloud-filled by now, it could've easily been a major hurricane by this point, and maybe on the doorstep of cat 4, but it's not. Still, I'd be surprised if Harvey doesn't become a major hurricane before landfall tomorrow night or Saturday morning. Ryan1000 03:07, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Tomorrow, which is about an hour from now in Eastern Time, it will have been 4324 days since October 24, 2005. That was the day Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida. 4324 days ago, the major-drought started, and now it looks like it may be coming to an end. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 03:08, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * 98 kt flight level winds measured by recon and considering the plane is flying at 700mb (85-90% reduction), we have a Category 2 hurricane. Owen 04:25, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * The pressure is down to 973 mbar. People in Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, etc, need to get outta there ASAP. Or else, if they want to ride the storm, they are at potential risk. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 04:47, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * And now it's officially a Category 2 hurricane according to NHC. Intensity up to 100 mph/967 mb. This is getting scary for those at Texas. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 05:30, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * The latest intermediate advisory ties Harvey for strongest storm of the season, at 90 knots and 967 mb. A pinhole eye appears to be poking through on satellite imagery. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:35, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * It looks like Corpus Christi will bear the brunt of the storm, and Harvey's rainbands are already reaching the coast of Texas. A recon has recently measured a pressure in the eye of Harvey as low as 958 mbars as of the 5 AM CDT update, so it could be upgraded to a major hurricane as soon as the next advisory. Hurricane-force winds still aren't going out particularly far from Harvey (still only 25 miles), but the tropical storm-force wind field has expanded to 140 miles out, likely due to an ERC that has occured as Harvey cleared it's eye out overnight, so TS force impacts will be widespread along the south-central Texas coast. Ryan1000 09:54, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * According to recon data, Harvey is now a 110 mph storm with a 952 mbar pressure. The pressure has dropped more than 15 mbar in 4 hours. There is a forecast of 31" of rain near Port Lavaca, Texas. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:06, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Scratch that, recon has found a pressure of 950 mbar. I think it's possible to go down near 930 around landfall. We may have a situation where the winds may be 115 or so but the pressure is in the 940s and 930s so it will have energy similar to a Category 4 hurricane. But god damn, it can even get in the 920s by landfall and I'm not joking. I'm calling it, Harvey is going to be retired. Especially if the Euro solution verifies, where we get this first landfall then a second one in Houston after it restrengthens, we are looking at a monster. Keeping Texas in my thoughts this morning. Owen 11:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 947 mb being reported. Here comes our first (and hopefully only) major of the season. --Whiplash (talk) 11:56, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * He's on the doorstep of major hurricane intensity right now, Harvey should be upgraded to one by the next advisory. It's likely Harvey will make landfall as a strong category 3 hurricane, with winds around 120-125 mph. I'd be surprised if Harvey's impacts in the Corpus Christi/Port Arkansas area aren't enough to warrant retirement, it'll be the first major hurricane to hit the area in 47 years, since Celia of 1970. However, Celia rapidly rushed onshore, bringing strong winds and storm surge but it dissipated shortly after. Harvey is going to stall not long after making landfall and will later recurve towards Houston, so inland flooding is probably going to be a bigger threat from Harvey than what the coast will experience. Ryan1000 12:07, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * A dropsonde in the eyewall of Harvey recorded 103 knot (118 mph) winds and a 946 mbar pressure. If that's deemed official by NHC, Harvey might be upgraded to a cat 3 in their 8 AM CDT update statement. Ryan1000 12:12, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

That's it. I have to say something about this. School is canceled for the day (or longer) across parts of southeast Texas. This will be the next Ike if the current forecast comes true. Three or more forecast models, specifically the GFS, the ECMWF, and the HWRF, are all certain that this storm will move like a snail around Texas for days. This is bad. Hopefully everyone who didn't evacuate makes it out okay. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:38, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well... Link to this forecast run. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:45, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * 948 millibars now. That's down two in the past hour. If this strengthening trend keeps up until landfall, this could reach 916 millibars. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:08, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * And to top it off... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:14, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey currently bringing rain to Texas. Expected to be a major hurricane and make landfall on Texas. There won't be enough time to be a Category 4 (unless it RIs to that). Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 14:27, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * And with the intensity up to 110 mph/948 mbar, Harvey is now the strongest storm of the season so far. Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017) -68.106.0.77 14:31, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Not sure this will become a major before landfall. Eye is losing definition yet again. --Whiplash (talk) 15:38, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Like I said earlier, it looks more and more that even though the winds don't correspond to the pressure in Harvey, the hurricane has expanded its windfield and will have a lot more energy and storm surge associated with it. I'm going to make a prediction Harvey will make landfall with 115 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 940 mbar unless more RI happens. Owen 16:41, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Harvey looks like it's going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 16:54, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dropsonde found 102 kt surface winds ( see here ), Harvey is a major hurricane. Expect upgrade from NHC within next half hour or so, or maybe a special advisory afterward. Owen 17:34, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Hearing reports that Hurricane Hunters found winds above major hurricane strength. Get ready everyone, things are about to heat up. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 17:48, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Quite surprised NHC didn't pull major hurricane trigger, but 110 winds/945 mbar in intermediate advisory. I'm thinking NHC is waiting for recon data to confirm. Owen 17:58, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here we go... --Whiplash (talk) 17:58, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I'm gonna put this new section here, though, because scrolling up to edit is getting tedious. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 18:01, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fun fact: if Harvey neither attains major hurricane status operationally, nor is upgraded in post-analysis, then it has just broken the record set by the 95 kt/946 mbar Hurricane Alex of 2010 as the Atlantic basin's strongest non-major hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:03, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well I'm heading off to work. Shift will be ending just around landfall so will see what happens while I'm gone. --Whiplash (talk) 18:02, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 18z ATCF!!!! AL, 09, 2017082518,, BEST, 0, 271N, 963W, 100, 944, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 25, 20, 25, 1008, 180, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, HARVEY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, Now all we need is for the NHC to make it official, which I imagine will happen with the new location update coming up shortly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:45, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Harvey
Getting scarier for Texas by the hour. The wording from NWS/NHC can not be any starker. The impacts of Harvey, with the greatly extended surge and rains never seen before here will make Harvey more devastating than a lot of previous serious hurricanes in the U.S. We are watching history unfold. I have a feeling though that hopefully Harvey will be capping off in intensity prior to landfall. And if not, well... Owen 18:51, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Major hurricane status officially confirmed by NHC. 105 kts/943 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:58, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey's current pressure is listed at 943. The last storm to hit the US with that kind of pressure was Rita in 2005 with 937. And I think Harvey will go deeper than that. After Rita is Katrina with 920. So Harvey will potentially be the most intense storm to hit the US since Katrina. And if it hits 130 mph winds, it'll be the strongest winds pf a hurricane to hit U.S. since Charley. Owen 20:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I think it's now safe to say that the drought will officially end tonight. 4,323 days. Unbelievable. Also, I have a longtime friend, who I've known since elementary school, that lives in Corpus Christi. He's evacuated, but I now know that some of his close friends (who I got to know when I visited Corpus two years ago, and am also friends with them as well) are staying behind. So I have some people I know who are in the path of this storm. Even though I'm not in the path of this storm, my life could be affected terribly if they end up getting killed. They are not by the coast, though. They moved to a hotel further inland. I'm not just thinking about them, though. I'm thinking about everyone in the path of this storm. Hope people have taken the necessary precautions. Because this is a nasty looking hurricane. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 20:38, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * It is very unfortunate that this is going to end the streak. Also, Harvey looks like a C4 hurricane. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 20:45, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * As new dropsondes are now measuring 130 mph winds (which would make this a C4), it probably wasn't in enough time for the NHC by the time they issued the 5 pm advisory with winds of 125 mph and 941 mbar. About to sub-940 and this could be the first Category 4 hurricane to strike the United States since Charley - close call. Yikes. Owen 20:59, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Winds are now 125 and further strengthening is likely. This will probably be not only the first major hurricane to hit the US in years, but the first category 4 to hit the US in 13 years. Winds are picking up along the coast too, I'm watching TWC, and Paul Goodloe, who is in Corpus Christi, is getting battered by winds. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:12, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey's eye is about to move onshore just north of Corpus Christi near Port Arkansas, so it's not likely he'll be a cat 4 unless it's in the NHC's update statement when it makes landfall. But still, Harvey is a large and powerful major hurricane that is bringing strong winds and a powerful storm surge to the Texas coast. That, and the forecast still calls for Harvey to re-emerge off the coast briefly before moving towards the Houston area as a tropical storm, so flooding is going to be extreme from this hurricane, with some areas north of Corpus Christi expected to get as much as, if not more than, 40 inches of rain over the next few days. Ryan1000 22:14, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 125mph, 941mb. This feels very much like a cat 4 to be honest. I wish the people of Texas, Corpus Christi and the surrounding area all the best and hope they do well in keeping safe from the storm. This is a life-threatening, dangerous storm. It was the last thing anyone wanted, to ruin what would have been either the perfect end to a summer break. (However the perks of this hurricane is that school is closed for some. Hurray! And the jokes on Twitter some users are tweeting, such as the Steve Harvey jokes Rah mentioned above, HI RAH nice to meet ya!) But this is no time to celebrate. Pray for Texas. HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 22:35, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Steve Harvey isn't appropriate for this; "Harvegeddon" as I said before, is a more accurate way to describe this (likely very damaging) major hurricane about to hit Texas any moment now. Port Arkansas is about to get the center of the storm, and Corpus Christi will get the southern eyewall and as much as 12 feet of storm surge, plus winds of more than 100 mph and 20-foot waves that could top the seawall by the bay area. And this isn't at all to mention the inland flooding that will unfold over the next several days. Ryan1000 22:48, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Jim Cantore is getting absolutely battered by the winds in Corpus Christi. I've never seen Jim having this much of a struggle with the wind, and he's been through some big hurricanes! So it's a triple whammy for the coast of Corpus Christi and surrounding areas. Flooding, storm surge, and extremely high winds. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 22:54, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Jim's equipment said that gusts are currently 79 mph. So that's what they're experiencing right now. I think Brian Norcross (hurricane expert on TWC) just said it best when he said "for areas around there (Corpus Christi), this is going to be hellacious." Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 22:58, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

GUYS THIS MORON IS NOW A CAT 4

<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:16px;font-weight:bold;text-align:center;">...6 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE... ...HARVEY BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... ...SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 23:01, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Amazing. Keeping Texas in my thoughts, hopefully this is the peak. This will be the first C4 landfall in US since Charley. Owen 23:03, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still eating my "lol" when Harvey lost his circulation at first. Wow.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:04, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * 130mph, 941mb. THIS IS A NIGHTMARE god help these people HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 23:09, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

Holy shit. Now up to  130 MPH!!!!!  This is now the most scared I've been at a landfalling US hurricane in many years. Not even Matthew scared me this much. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 23:06, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well damn, looks like the update statement confirmed it. Port Arkansas is ground zero right now and Corpus is taking a severe beating from this as well. Texas hasn't seen a cat 4 landfall since Carla of 1961, and the U.S. hasn't seen one period since Charley. Prayers for those in Texas right now... Ryan1000 23:14, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * OMG, that is going to be  DEVASTATING  for Texas. I hope they're okay there... Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 23:22, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Indeed! Anyway for comparison's sake:
 * CURRENTLY: Harvey (2017) is at 130mph, 941mb.
 * BACK IN THE DAY (BUT OBVS, NOT TOO LONG AGO): Katrina (2005) landfell at 125mph. Rita (2005) landfell at 120mph. Ivan (2004) landfell at 120mph. Wilma (2005) landfell at 120mph. This is to tell you how catastrophic the situation we are dealing with right now could turn out to be. Hope it won't be as bad as those mentioned above. HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 23:30, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, this is going to be a nightmare. Right now, I'm watching The Weather Channel with Jim Cantore riding out Harvey. Harvey just offshore from Texas. It's going to make landfall in Texas as a major and then go back to sea just like Allison did in 2001. Remember to pray for Texas, pray for the people riding out the hurricane, if you can. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 23:37, August 25, 2017 (UTC) P.S. Now Jim Cantore is reporting gusts up to 90 mph in his area (Corpus Christi).


 * ...EYE OF CATEGORY 4 HARVEY APPROACHING THE COAST BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS... NHC Still hasn't called the landfall yet, as of the 7 PM advisory. Ryan1000 00:03, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * And now I am genuinely scared for Texas. I don't know anymore, I just hope everything will be okay soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:13, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Port O'Connor and Port Aransas are going to get whacked on all sides. From seeing how much this is already affecting Texas, we could be looking at a $10 billion storm hitting Texas. Jim Cantore said on TWC, "I can guarantee that Harvey won't be on the list anymore after tomorrow." T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:16, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * That damage total might even be conservative. Given the extended amount of time Harvey will be over the south portion of Texas, and all the extreme flooding it'll bring, 15-20 billion seems more likely in the end. Not as destructive as Ike but a close second nonetheless. Ryan1000 00:20, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Some people in Corpus decided to risk their lives by not leaving their houses. And I don't mean inland, I mean on the coast.So this is not good at all. Also, somewhat off-topic just to show how serious this is, The Weather Channel has gone into what is commonly known as "red mode", due to the fact that they change the logo from blue to red. They do this for extremely life-threatening situations, and until tonight, it hadn't been used since 2014... Oh, and I heard Jim say that too, TornadoGenius. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 00:37, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yeah, that is very bad for them. Not leaving their homes just before the hurricane is kinda dangerous. I hope there not much deaths. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 00:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC) P.S. I see that too Leeboy (the "red mode").

The eyewall is now crossing the coast near Port Aransas. Official landfall will likely be in about an hour or two from now. Also, is it just me, or does Harvey look annular? Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 00:59, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm expecting landfall any minute now. When it makes landfall, Harvey will be the first hurricane to make landfall in Texas since Ike in 2008, first to make landfall as a major hurricane in the US since Wilma in 2005, first to make landfall as a Cat. 4 hurricane in the US since Charley in 2004, first to make landfall as a major hurricane in Texas since Ceila in 1970 Bret in 1999, and the first to make landfall as a Cat. 4 hurricane in Texas since Carla in 1961. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 01:24, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * P.S. Thanks for correcting me Ryan.


 * God forbid if this is becoming annular, as it would probably hold intensity longer over land. This is the scariest storm ever... A freakin' C4 hurricane combined with Allison-esque stalling over Texas! A re-Katrina is probably going to happen. I didn't really expect this would go as far as a monster C4. I mean, HOLY SH!T! I can't believe my eyes! This could be a worst-case flood disaster that could kill hundreds and cause Katrina-like damages. Yes Lee, I saw how weather.com is looking like (I don't think I've seen that mode since Winter Storm Nemo in 2013). Really hope a worst-case flood scenario is avoided, but with the stalling over Texas... that could be inevitable. This is a total nightmare-ish, cataclysm in the making. Even scarier than Sandy I'd say. WE MUST PRAY FOR THE TEXANS!!! 😱 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:26, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually 68, Bret of 1999 was the last major hurricane to hit Texas, but Bret struck Kenedy county between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, causing little damage and not getting retired. Celia was the last major hurricane to hit Corpus Christi directly, Harvey missed the city just to the north, but they're still getting the southern eyewall of the storm right now and it's going to last for several hours, and rainfall for several days. Ryan1000 01:48, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Right now, Port Aransas is experiencing wind gusts of 120 MPH. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 02:06, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * See here for a very impressive live stream during Hurricane Harvey. Roofs collapsing, mobile homes flying in the air, no visibility, etc. Not good. Weather Channel is borefest for me. Owen 02:11, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * 938.8 mb extrapolated from recon as Harvey makes landfall. Owen 02:32, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's minutes away from making its potential devastating landfall in Texas. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 02:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't think it's 'potential devastating', I think it WILL be devastating. We could be looking at a hurricane going down in the record books as one of the costliest US hurricanes on record, including the flood situation that will happen after this landfall. But the real news and real reason I post right now is...Hurricane Harvey...has made landfall as a 130 mph Category 4 hurricane. Harvey has not weakened, this is a true Category 4 landfall on the United States, and so we have it, the 12 year streak is OVER. A hurricane of this intensity AND size is something I think the U.S. hasn't seen since Hugo. Record-breaking Harvey breaks the 12 year streak, becomes first C4 to strike US since Charley, becomes first hurricane to impact Texas since Ike, and will be the strongest Texas hurricane since Carla a half century ago. Owen 02:51, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Harvey (continued, makes landfall)
And it's official. 938 mb. Harvey made landfall as a C4. The 12 year streak is over. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:01, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * And finally, after 12 years, the drought for the major hurricane landfall is over. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 03:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Landfall official. The drought is over. I'm hoping for the best from here on out. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 03:09, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well then. Wasn't really expecting that. I go away for one week and a category 4 is making landfall? Yikes... Hey Harvey, while your there, can you do a number on the Dallas Stadium? Kthx. My hopes go out to Texas. Emma and V 03:11, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * WTF happened while I was at work. See some pics from Jeff Petrowski showing him recording 931 mb in the eye of Harvey. --Whiplash (talk) 03:50, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * The drought is finally over (unfortunately). It made landfall near Rockport, Texas. This monster is about to go down as one of the costliest hurricanes EVER. All locations around Rockport are currently experiencing doomsday-like conditions like major hurricane-force winds and really heavy rainfall. The devastation will most likely be catastrophic once this is all done. And the stalling will make things much worse. I could already give this a 100% chance of retirement. Won't be surprised if Katrina-like carnage is done. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:03, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Mike Seidel from TWC is in Port Lavaca and the water is beginning to get above his ankles, so the water is already building up.

Oh, and @Whiplash, you missed quite a bit, Harvey strengthened. First to a category 3, then a category 4. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 04:04, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Well I have been trying to login for a while but I cant remember my username. I am allan calderini anyways. Yeah it sad that Texas took the brunt of the storm and for the record while the major hurricane drought has finally end to make matters worse it was with a cat 4 instead of a cat 3. I hope Texans prepare for this storm and they will be in my prayers. 181.210.62.178 04:35, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Harvey has now made a second landfall on the other side of the bay. And has weakened, but not very much. 125 mph, 942 millibars. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 05:56, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

There have been reports of numerous structural damage already — one report says that the Rockport High School sustained a lot of damage. This is just the start, however. Depending on its future track, this second landfall may be Harvey's last (unless of course if it re-emerges into the GoM later next week). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:00, August 26, 2017 (UTC) ...HARVEY MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF COPANO BAY...
 * It is currently near Rockport to the north, and Victoria to the south. Expected to weaken further and turn southward to reenter the Gulf of Mexico. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 06:18, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * The U.S. major hurricane drought had to end at some point, and it has now, but with a storm of Harvey's intensity, it'll be extremely bad for parts of Texas, and possibly the second-costliest hurricane on record in the state, after Ike. But the storm surge is one thing from Harvey, the inland flood threat is just beginning, and it'll go on for several days. The inland flood damage may also be much worse than the coastal threat due to the sheer amount of rain that'll be dropped from this, the area where its at right now is expected to get at least 30-40 inches of rain over the next several days, but some isolated locations may get 50 or even 60 inches worth of rainfall. Harvey's also slowed down to only 6 mph, and will likely reverse direction soon. Ryan1000 07:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * NHC Update: 115 mph, 950 mb. Will likely become a C2 soon, but this ain't over yet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:34, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Harvey (2nd time)
Now official. Harvey is no longer a major hurricane. 110 mph, 954 mbars. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 08:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * 100 mph, 963 mbars. NHC's statement is very blunt: catastrophic flooding expected over the next few days due to heavy rainfall. I just hope that this isn't Texas's Katrina. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Down to C1. 80 mph, 975 mbars. And now the rains are picking up. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

...HARVEY DRENCHING TEXAS... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...


 * Last advisory took the winds down to 75 mph and pressure up to 984 mbars. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 15:48, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Pictures of damage are starting to come in. Here's a picture of a hotel in Rockport taken by Jim Edds. https://mobile.twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/901473270356115457/photo/1 Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 17:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Harvey (3rd time)
70 mph, 987 mbars. And the feared (but expected) flooding is now happening. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:55, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

...HARVEY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM INLAND OVER TEXAS... ...EXTREMELY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING...
 * Harvey has killed 2 people so far. And worse yet, the flood right ahead is going to be disastrous. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 18:36, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Pictures are coming in of the significant damage Harvey has caused in parts of Texas. Especially around Rockport, which was essentially ground zero when Harvey made landfall. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 19:39, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Unfortunately, a death has now been confirmed. A man died in a fire in Rockport overnight. Harvey has claimed his first victim, let's hope he doesn't claim too much more. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 20:08, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sadly, Wikipedia now says that 2 deaths in total occurred, but one of them was apparently in Suriname (where Harvey shouldn't have done much at all). Expect the death toll to continue to rise as the flooding disaster unfolds over Texas as Harvey lingers for days. Damage tolls will be immense at the end, and this could be a certain retirement candidate. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:01, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Property damage is now estimated at $2 billion. Harvey will surely go after this season. Anyway, this storm has weakened to 60 mph, but the rains are just getting stronger. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:18, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Forecast track no longer takes Harvey back over the GoM as a TS, but moves it south towards Corpus Christi and then back north, doing a loop over land and over its own wake. Flooding is going to be extreme in Texas from this powerful storm, and it's not going to be over for another 4 days or so. I can only imagine how high the damage from this thing will be, hopefully loss of life doesn't get much worse than it has already. Ryan1000 00:29, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

...TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... ...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE...
 * Pressure up to 992 mbar. I can imagine it becomes much worse from Harvey. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 01:01, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Massive feeder bands over Houston right now now predicting more than 40 inches of rain in the city in 24 hours. Cataclysmic amounts. --Whiplash (talk) 02:15, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

Winds down to 50 mph, pressure up to 994 mbars. Flood emergency in Houston right now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:53, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Unfortunate news but reports that 3 people have died in Aransas County and 1 person has died from the flooding in Houston. Some reports saying that up to 30 people unaccounted for in the Rockport area. --Whiplash (talk) 04:25, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * If Harvey's winds alone can cause US$2 billion of damage, I don't want to think what 40 inches of rain will do. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:00, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

...HARVEY SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES LITTLE... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS...


 * The latest advisory takes the intensity down to 45 mph/998 mbar. Pray for Texas... -68.106.0.77 06:00, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Parts of Houston and southeast Texas are currently getting torrential rainfall. Floods in some areas are now at the brink of exceeding record flood levels set during Allison 16 years ago. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:39, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

4AM (CDT) update: 45 mph, 998 mbars. Weakening but actually causing more catastrophic and devastating effects. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:04, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, that was some lethal rain-band. When I went to bed 7 hours ago in the screaming rain, Houston was like normal. But when I woke up, I got a notification from TWC saying that Houston is flooded bad. So, from this one rain-band, Houston got 20 inches of rain, in seven hours. And there's STILL more rain coming. I have a sick feeling in my stomach right now, if torrential rains like this continue... I just... I can't imagine how grotesque these floods are going to look like. Stay safe out there, everyone! Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:44, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Pressure still at 998 mbars, winds still at 45 mph. Death toll now 8: 7 in the U.S. and 1 in Suriname. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:51, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Some areas southwest of Houston suffered worse, there's already been 30+ inches of rain around the Victoria area northwest of Rockport, and it could be 40 to even 60 inches over the next few days as Harvey continues to meander over southeastern Texas. Couple the flooding that Houston and surrounding areas suffered from this with the devastating damage from Harvey's storm surge and this could be among the costliest disasters Texas has ever seen. While Ike will probably still retain the record with 34 billion (inflated) in storm surge damage in the Galveston/Houston area in 2008, Harvey is going to be a strong runner-up. Ryan1000 13:01, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Models increasingly showing Harvey will go back into the gulf possible could re-intensify into a Category 1 hurricane and make landfall near Houston, Texas. One of the wackiest systems ever. --Whiplash (talk) 15:59, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INCLUDING GREATER HOUSTON... ...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS...
 * Intensity down to 40 mph/1000 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:32, August 27, 2017 (UTC) P.S. It's the strongest hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Rita in 2005.

I am sorry Ryan but I doubt that Ike will retain that record as Harvey probably will eclipse it and by a good margin. I am really sad for the disaster that is happening on texas. 181.210.62.178 18:40, August 27, 2017 (UTC) ...UNPRECEDENTED FLOODING OCCURING OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
 * Sorry to say 181.210 (Allan) but I have to agree with Ryan. I give it a less chance that Harvey can surpass Ike. Ike caused $29.5 billion of damages in Texas alone. Although Harvey was stronger at Texas landfall, I doubt it surpass Ike. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:04, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ike caused most of it's damage due to it's large, powerful storm surge on the coast of Galveston and Houston, which is typical of most of the costliest U.S. hurricanes; Harvey's primary threat of inland flooding is definitely going to be very destructive, I'd be surprised if it's not around 20-25 billion dollars, though I'm not expecting it to exceed Ike's 34 billion. Unfortunately for Texas, the NHC forecast once again has Harvey moving back over open water south of Houston and retaining tropical storm strength in the GoM, so Harvey may stick around for 2-3 days longer than anticipated. Ryan1000 20:46, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * This will surely be costlier than Allison, but Ike? We'll wait and see. It depends on whether or not Harvey will emerge back into the GoM and gather strength again. If Harvey manages to become a hurricane again, then Ike's record may be shattered, though honedstly I don't think it will happen (and I hope it won't happen; Texas had enough of this storm already). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:01, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

New one for the record books. Thanks to Harvey, August 2017 is now the wettest month on record in Houston. Surpassing June 2001, which was, of course, due to Tropical Storm Allison. And the rain is still going to be here a few more days. This is getting worse and worse. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 22:50, August 27, 2017 (UTC)

Absolute nightmare. I mean, this is the worst deluge I've ever tracked in the Atlantic basin. This will be even worse than Allison because combining an Allison-like track + a major hurricane landfall = cataclysm. Harvey won't let up in the area until mid-week which is when it will finally turn north toward Arkansas. Damages could exceed Ike's amount due to all the damage it did when landfalling as a C4 and the damage it will cause throughout the weeklong deluge. Won't be surprised if it gets into Sandy territory, or even (god forbid) Katrina territory. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:27, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yeah, a total nightmare to them. This is getting worse for them. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:58, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * (I apologize for the very long post below, but I wanted to express all of my thoughts regarding Harvey. -Andy)


 * "DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREAS IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE AND DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS"
 * "Harvey is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 15 to 25 inches through Friday over the upper Texas coast and into southwestern Louisiana. Isolated storm totals may reach 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan area."
 * -Forecaster Blake
 * For seven years now, I have been following these powerful forces of nature that the Atlantic spawns. Not once have I seen wording this strong in a NHC advisory package. Not for Irene. Not for Sandy. Not for Patricia. Not even for Matthew. I had a bad feeling about Harvey when I read that hurricane-force winds were to be expected along the Texas coast in the NHC TWO when the system was still a tropical wave. I can not believe that Harvey accomplished all of this. No one has mentioned this yet, but this monster intensified from a tropical depression to a hurricane in 14 hours - along the ranks of Humberto and Lorenzo '07 as the fastest-developing hurricanes on record. Then, Harvey became the first Category 4 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in over half a decade and became the strongest hurricane to hit Texas since Carla in 1961! I knew that the United States could not take its major hurricane drought for granted. It would only be a matter of time before another beast came upon our shores. I hope that Harvey's landfall will make Americans realize that we are not immune from these types of natural disasters. The population of coastal regions such as Texas and Florida have increased significantly in the past few decades, and many simply do not have the experience to cope with a situation like this. I apologize for my long rant, but let this ring clear - If we continue dismissing these threats, we will find ourselves in grave trouble at the wrong time.
 * Now, back to Harvey. Due to the storm's proximity to the coastline, it has been able to maintain itself as a tropical storm for 48 hours after landfall, the first to do so since Fern in 1971. Winds are currently at 35 knots (40 mph), with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa). Harvey should move back over water over the next couple of days and make a second landfall closer to Houston/Galveston, as the NHC forecasts. Fortunately, no significant reintensification is expected. While wind, surf, storm surge, and even tornadoes may cause potential impacts, both southeastern Texas and Louisiana should brace for the rain. As quoted above, over four feet of rain may fall from this system. To give some historical perspective, the wettest tropical cyclone on record for Texas (and the contiguous United States) was Tropical Storm Amelia in 1978. If the NHC's prediction verifies, Harvey will go down in the record books (not that it already has) . On the subject of precipitation, check out this list of totals. You read that right, Dayton, Texas has received approximately 27 inches of rain from Harvey. This is already among the top ten wettest tropical cyclones for the continental United States, and I hope things do not get any worse. Fatalitywise, the total is now up to eight, and I will be quite surprised if this is the final total. A landfalling Category 4 of this magnitude is bound to have a much higher body count.
 * Also, Dylan, to comment on your earlier mention of this naming list being cursed, I'd like to state this: In the hypothetical scenario that this naming list was first used in 1851 (when the HURDAT database starts) instead of 1981 and utilized every six years, then all of the following seasons would have used it: 1909 (which featured the Monterrey hurricane and two landfalling U.S. major hurricanes), 1933 (the most active season before 2005), 1957 (the year of Audrey), 1963 (the year of Flora), 1969 (the highest number of hurricanes before 2005), 1999, 2005, 2011, and of course, 2017. On a side note, for any JFK fanatics out there, Harvey is the middle name of the president's assassin. Quite a fitting name for a major hurricane crashing down on Texas's shores (cough, cough, Dallas).
 * To close my (long) post, please keep the people of Texas in your thoughts. They will have a long road to recovery ahead, and they need all the support they can give. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:25, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

Pressure now at 999 mbars, still 40 mph. Possible third landfall on Tuesday; only forecast to reach 45 mph before hitting land again. Harvey will likely break Amelia's record if the torrential rains continue to pour (and become even stronger). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:58, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey's heaviest rain appears to have spaced a bit from Houston lately, but now flash flood warnings are in effect for parts of southwestern Louisiana. Should Harvey cause flooding there and elsewhere farther northeast as bad as Houston has been hit, damage could be higher than Ike's overall, as nearly all of Ike's 34 billion in U.S. damage was due to coastal storm surge and winds on the Texas coast. Harvey is easily going to be the costliest U.S. hurricane on record whose damage was primarily due to flooding rainfall instead of coastal storm surge. Ryan1000 08:57, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * So, based on the damages so far, it looks like we have an estimated potential total of $40 billion. But like Ryan said, the remainder of potential flooding still hasn't been accounted for especially if its spread toward the Louisiana coast. But as of now, I think it's safe to say that like I said a couple days ago, Harvey is among Katrina, Sandy, Ike, and Andrew now. Owen 10:25, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey's pressure has now fallen to 997 and NHC expects Harvey to re-intensify to a 45 mph storm before making landfall a second time. Since Harvey is entraining dry air right now, the southwestern side of the circulation is mostly clear and most of the heaviest rain is over western Louisiana right now. But due to Harvey's slow movement and continued thunderstorm buildup on it's northeast side, parts of Louisiana may be flooded as bad as parts of Texas were. However, the images just coming out of Houston are horrific. Apparently the 50-60 inches of rain dumped there from Harvey was far too conservative for estimating the overall flooding there, because due to the city's low elevation, apparently the runoff from rainfall that occured in the surrounding areas poured into Houston like a bowl, and some parts of the city are under a whopping 15 to even 20 feet of rainfall from this monster storm. Since it'll take weeks, months, or even years to empty that out and repair the city, as much as I hate to admit it, Harvey may rival or even exceed Katrina, yes Katrina, as the costliest hurricane to hit the United States on record. Ryan1000 14:28, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey emerging into the Gulf of Mexico. One of the most potential damaging hurricanes, Harvey will probably succeed Ike's 34 billion dollars. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Holy crud my 2015 Harvey prediction was right. <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  21:54, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * And crap, the storm's rain has moved back over Houston again. Historic flooding there is continuing...it may take another 4 days or so before this stops. Ryan1000 00:45, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey has moved back over the Gulf of Mexico, and is now moving towards southwestern Louisiana. New tropical storm warnings have been issued for both that region and southeastern Texas, which should continue to receive unprecedented rainfall totals from this system. Additionally, due to an increase in convection and new reports of tropical storm winds, the NHC has raised Harvey's winds back up to 40 knots (45 mph), with the pressure still remaining at 997 mbar (hPa). Fortunately, the storm is still not expected to significantly reintensify. Motionwise, a subtropical ridge currently over the Gulf of Mexico will drag Harvey back over land in the next few days and eventually into the New Madrid region. There are so many images I have seen related to the havoc that Harvey has left behind in Texas, but there is no way I can fit them all into this one forum page. All I know is that Texas will have years of recovery from what we are currently witnessing. Damagewise, JPMorgan is estimating losses to be between $10 to 20 billion, and Chuck Watson foresees a damage bill of $30 billion. If the latter verifies, Harvey will become the fourth costliest Atlantic hurricane in history, after only Katrina, Sandy, and Ike. Moreover, precipitation totals of over 35 inches have been reported near Greater Houston, making Harvey the wettest American tropical cyclone since Allison. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:32, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, now the death toll is now up to 14. It is confirmed that the damage totals are over $10 billion. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:49, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is a severely saddening situation that unfolded over Texas and probably some surrounding areas. Harvey will be retired for sure now. I will go along with the Chuck Watson scenario for eventual damage totals, because combining the C4 landfall and the days upon days of flooding will surely make for an extraordinarily costly disaster. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:58, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * BTW, Harvey is over water again, but significant intensification isn't expected before its second landfall near the border of Texas and Louisiana. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:59, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * For the record, if the 30 billion damage estimate verifies (which may likely be conservative), Harvey would actually rank as the 5th costliest hurricane in today's dollars, because Andrew caused 26.5 billion dollars in damage at the time it struck Florida; if you turn that into today's dollars, it would be over 40 billion dollars worth, and also costlier than Ike. Anyways, Harvey's rain continues to pour relentlessly over the Houston area, and it's possible he could produce more than 50 inches of rain over the city if it continues throughout today; if that happens, then Harvey would eclipse Amelia of 1978 (which caused 48 inches of rainfall in Texas) as the wettest tropical cyclone in the lower 48 United States. Harvey would have to drop over 52 inches to beat the all-time US rainfall record set by Hurricane Hiki in the 1950 CPac season in Hawaii. Ryan1000 11:13, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

Flooding Nightmare Harvey
A US$60 billion damage estimate has appeared (here). Also the US death toll has increased to 14 after a family of six drowned when their van was swept off a bridge. RIP. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:53, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * From the latest NHC advisory: "A preliminary report from one Texas rain gauge has broken the Texas tropical cyclone rainfall record. Southeast of Houston, Mary's Creek at Winding Road reported 49.32 inches as of 9 am CDT. This total is higher than the previous record of 48 inches set during tropical cyclone Amelia of 1978 at Medina, Texas." Just wow. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:04, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * It appears that Harvey is now the wettest tropical cyclone on record for the contiguous United States. Only a few more inches of precipitation and Hiki's record will also be no more. Fortunately, Harvey is far from claiming the worldwide record, which is held by Cyclone Hyacinthe's whopping 239.5 inches in Réunion in January 1980 (Let's hope we don't reach those totals!) . Intensitywise, Harvey still has winds of 40 knots (45 mph) and a pressure of 997 mbar (hPa), pending a recon flight. The NHC has shifted the storm's forecast track eastward such that it may instead make its second landfall over Louisiana, prompting additional watches and warnings for that state. Even Mississippi and Alabama may need to brace for impacts; the NHC is calling for precipitation totals to be between five to ten inches in that region. It looke like Harvey may become the fourth tropical cyclone to make landfall over both Texas and Louisiana, after Fern '71, Allison '01, and Bertha '02. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:37, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * I note that that link you posted yesterday morning citing Dayton's 27-inch rain total is to a site that updates.12.144.5.2 17:15, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) compiles the data on that list and updates the totals every several hours as new measurements come in. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:41, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Man, this thing just doesn't know when to give up, despite entraining more dry air on it's south side, Harvey is still blowing up very heavy thunderstorms over or just east of the Houston area, and the city is still getting drenched in extremely heavy rains right now. Couple the worst flood disaster for any major U.S. city on record with the damage Harvey did elsewhere in the lone star state and the flooding in neighboring Louisiana yesterday, and it's not hard to imagine the damage from this well surpassing 100 billion dollars, being the costliest U.S. hurricane on record. Ryan1000 20:55, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Cedar Bayou has now reported 51.88 inches of rain from Harvey. If they get 0.13 inches more, then Hiki's record is broken and Harvey is the wettest TC on record for the U.S. Lake Houston is also now at 52 feet high, the dam surrounding the lake is 54 feet tall; if Harvey can dump two more feet of rain over the lake then there could be a catastrophic dam failure there, on top of the reports of multiple levee failures throughout the city which have left most of the roads in Houston impassible. Ryan1000 21:45, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

At the moment, confirmed damage costs from Harvey are a little over $10 billion. According to Wikipedia this ties Harvey with Hugo as the 11th costliest hurricane on record. Even though costs are likely going to be over 60 or heck, even 70 billion dollars when all is said and done. That $10 billion cost basically guarantees retirement anyways. The costliest storm that didn't get it's name retired, was Isaac 5 years ago, which is the 27th costliest Atlantic hurricane. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 01:31, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * *cough* Karl '10 *cough* --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:39, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey dropped 51.88 inches of rain in Highland, Texas alone officially making it the wettest tropical cyclone in the contiguous U.S. and the second wettest in the entire U.S. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:41, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * And death toll risen to 32. RIP to those who died. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:11, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Karl '10 did 5.6 billion in damage and didn't get axed, but it should've been. Anyways, Harvey is continuing to drop some heavy rain just east of Houston, but most of the thunderstorm activity has diminished outside of that and some rainbands moving into southern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. Harvey will move ashore again sometime later today or tomorrow, and after that this nightmare storm should finally be dying out. Ryan1000 05:07, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Winds have decreased to 40 knots. Harvey looks like it's going to make a third and final landfall soon, but Texas and Louisiana will probably have to bear with the rain for at least another day. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:49, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

...CENTER OF HARVEY OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
 * Well, you guessed it, it made its final landfall on Western Louisiana (I think). Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * New estimate has damage total surpassing Katrina and Sandy. Saying may be up to $160 billion in damage from this storm. --Whiplash (talk) 14:28, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope that is just an overestimation. :O My guess for the final damage total is still somewhere around Sandy's. This is the worst storm ever if that damage estimate is true. The Texans in Houston and surrounding areas will have an excessively long road of recovery to come! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:28, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

That damage estimate is horrific. Like you Steve, I really hope that's an overestimate. This is looking worse than Katrina, though. So I will not be surprised if it rivals Katrina. I didn't think Katrina's total would be surpassed so soon, though. It's only been 12 years since Katrina hit, in fact, yesterday was the 12th anniversary. Also, I got my list on the cost of hurricanes from Wikipedia, and for whatever reason, they left out Karl. Once I posted that, I thought to myself, "Wait, didn't Karl cost around $5 billion?" So, yeah. Thanks for misinforming me, Wikipedia. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 21:18, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * There's been a lot of dispute over Karl's damage, the NHC reported only 206 million dollars in insured losses from the storm, but most of the property that Karl destroyed wasn't insured and total damages were estimated by the governor of Veracruz to be 70 billion pesos, or 5.6 billion USD. Perhaps the localization of that damage could've played a factor in his lack of retirement from the 2010 season; I also should point out Juan of 1985 did over 1.5 billion in damage at the time when it struck Louisiana, which would be over 3 billion in today's dollars. Ryan1000 23:22, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Harvey (3rd time)
30 kts, 998 mbar, will thankfully be on its way out very soon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:08, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * A minute ahead of me again...Harvey's winds are decreasing and thunderstorm activity is fading around the circulation. NHC will likely declare Harvey post-tropical later today. Ryan1000 01:09, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

As Harvey is slowly fading away, I think it's safe to say the name "Harvey" isn't going to be used ever again. By the time Harvey's remnants are gone for good, the damages will probably surpass Sandy's, and, gosh, maybe even Katrina's. (Probably not though) <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog

...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUING OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...


 * Yeah, Harvey's not going to be on the list again. If Harvey avoids retirement (not going to happen), then I would faint. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:41, August 31, 2017 (UTC) P.S. Death toll up to 34.

After almost two long weeks, Harvey is non-tropical, this time for good. But it will still be dropping rain for the next few days as it heads northeast. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 04:08, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Which part of the discussion said it became non-tropical? NHC only transferred advisories to WPC.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  04:23, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yes, it didn't become non-tropical just yet. But it should lose tropical characteristics once it is over the Ohio Valley within 72 hours. Thank goodness, the Harvey disaster is beginning to end. Key word, beginning. Harvey will continue to bring heavy rainfall as it moves up through Mississippi, Tennessee, Kentucky, etc. Flooding in Texas will take a long time to recede and the recovery efforts will take a very long time. It could take years upon years before Texas is back to pre-Harvey conditions. This is certainly going down in history as a storm that will be remembered for decades upon decades to come, and is up there with Sandy and Katrina. If that one $160 billion damage estimate is true, this will BEAT UP Katrina's record as  THE WORST STORM EVER RECORDED IN HISTORY . And I mean in terms of damages. Deaths is another story; only 26 deaths have been reported so far and this storm is nowhere near as deadly as Mitch and some certain North Indian cyclones. Glad it doesn't appear to be a repeat of Mitch, but all these deaths are still saddening nonetheless. However, I would not be shocked if the deaths rapidly climb into the hundreds when this storm is 100% dissipated and all bodies are found. There could have been quite a few people who drowned without anyone immediately reporting it. It has finally weakened to a depression, but the results of this nightmare could linger on for who knows how long. It should finally dissipate by the end of the week. Good riddance!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:57, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Damage totals now well beyond $58 billion beating Ike's $29.5 billion. It will challenge Sandy and Katrina for the damage totals. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:34, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Info from The Weather Channel says winds are currently 15 mph, and Harvey is still considered a depression. That might be the lowest windspeeds I have ever seen in a system that is still tropical. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 21:06, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Scratch what I said above. $58 billion is not officially the damage totals. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:17, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Harvey is now impacting my area (Bedford, Indiana). I have checked my rain gauge and I have at least 7" of rain where I live. That makes Harvey the third wettest storm in Indiana unofficially. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 11:02, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Harvey over Tennessee now. Death toll up to 45. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 14:27, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Harvey
After causing unimaginable flooding over Houston and elsewhere in Texas and Louisiana for almost a week and becoming the costliest hurricane to ever hit the United States, the Weather Prediction Center has finally ceased issuing advisories on Harvey as it no longer poses a flood or severe weather threat to the United States. GFR. (For the record, like Eric said with Sandy in 2012, we'll keep this up for another week or so before we archive Harvey to discuss about his aftermath and any updated impact statistics). Ryan1000 18:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Advisories are actually still ongoing for the time being, the rains are just moving in to the Ohio valley as Harvey loses tropical characteristics. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:02, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * I think it's safe to say that Harvey is just about done at this point though, there could be some more rain in southern Ohio but nothing like what Texas had gone through the past week. (Sorry for the confusion on the archiving btw, I was just archiving the rest of August while leaving Harvey and Irma up since they'll get their own archives later on). Ryan1000 19:07, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * No worries Ryan! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:52, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Death toll up to 48. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:52, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Death toll is up to 51 as this PTC goes over Northern Kentucky. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 16:14, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now over Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio. The windspeed of 15 mph is probably the lowest windspeed I've ever seen from a storm that still appears on the NHC page (although, of course, the WPC is issuing advisories). Houston and surrounding areas have years of recovery to come. This is likely the costliest hurricane in U.S. history. And I won't be surprised if the death toll rises into the hundreds, unfortunately. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧

Harvey is off the NHC page now, it's remnants are still causing some rain in the northeast but they'll depart the U.S. for good in a few days. 50 deaths are reported from Harvey in the U.S. thus far, hopefully that number doesn't rise any further. Accuweather has upped their damage projection to an unbelievable 190 billion dollars, which, if accurate, is more damage than both Katrina and Sandy combined. Ryan1000 23:23, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Estimates today takes the damage totals at $70 billion and more. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 08:13, September 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Death toll now up to 65 in the United States :( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:16, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave Over Western Africa
This one is about to emerge from Africa into the Atlantic. It's at 0/20. Pray for Texas...-68.106.0.77 18:45, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be Jose assuming 92L finally develops into Irma before that one merges with a cold front mid-week. I have a feeling that something formidable could come from this wave. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:06, August 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lmao GFS has a Category 3-4 striking near me in Atlantic Canada in 2 weeks time with this system. I mean this is my reaction:  XD (Still too far out to predict with any accuracy but I mean wtf... --Whiplash (talk) 05:27, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Always felt the name Jose would one day be used for something ominous, even though the 2011 one was that pathetic naked swirl. If this verifies, we have another monster hurricane setting its sites on the East Coast and Atlantic Canada long term. But I would say personally this wave is beginning to already have rotation over Africa and with the way the ridge is building, it sounds more like an Ike situation actually. I hope I'm wrong, that's the last thing the US would need after Harvey but it's also only August and the waters are warm. Owen 05:33, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Or this could be Irma instead, depending on 92L's fluctuating formation chances. If that's the case, we might see the continuation of the "I" curse this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:55, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh well, this will become Jose (if it doesn't go bust just like the AOI above). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:55, August 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Really feel that this will be ominous. It has got a lot of ocean along the future path. Hope it is nothing devastating in the very long run. If an "Ike situation" that Owen said materializes, it could even reach the same area as Harvey which is totally not acceptable. P.S. I once made a prediction on Hypothetical Hurricanes Wiki about "Jose" being an extremely deadly and destructive system. It is here. That prediction is very, very unrealistic. But in an "Ike situation", I kind of fear that future "Jose" could actually take a similar path to that prediction (but likely not going into Mexico). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:38, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS takes this meandering over the central Atlantic over the next week or two without affecting land, but the Euro takes this heading WNW north of the Antilles and potentially hitting south Florida as a strong major hurricane in two weeks; if a cat 4 or 5 comes into Miami it would easily exceed Katrina's damage total as the costliest U.S. hurricane ever, due to the immense amount of property directly along the southeastern Florida coastline. Ryan1000 01:34, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 0/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:44, August 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * This one very unfortunately looking more and more like a potential Ike situation or even Andrew situation. I believe with Ike's path inititally model runs took the hurricane into Miami. God forbid, imagine it went into Miami and into New Orleans or a setup to where a trough could bring this thing to the northeast after crossing into the GOM taking it into Tampa (my city I live in, and most overdue city right now for a hurricane strike) which I just don't want to think of potential scenarios with this especially after Harvey. But what we are seeing here is a formula for the most destructive season since 2005, and the potential for Harvey and what would be Jose to be the costliest hurricanes on record (both in a single season). Hope I'm wrong. Owen 10:29, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Up to 30/70 and invested. I really don't like what the ECMWF is showing right now. At least the GFS makes this a fish. (Random horrible thought: if this strikes Florida or the Carolinas 2 weeks out on 11 September we may have one of the worst coincidences in US history. Actually why am I even thinking of this.) ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:57, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * The models were agressive with Harvey before it formed, then they backed off until the runs that took it into Texas days before, and if the Euro nails this one and it does hit the east coast a monster hurricane, then Harvey, as damaging as he is, may be rivaled himself. I know it's 10 days out but this season is definitely ramping up and with the position of the Bermuda high and active Cape Verde waves, we may have a string of damaging storms hitting the U.S. this year. Ryan1000 14:28, August 28, 2017 (UTC)

As NHC is now saying that 92L may not develop into a TS, well I think we might see a continuation of the "I" curse this year. Maybe Irma dodged it when 4L did not become strong enough to become Don (thus making 9L receive the name Harvey), but if PTC Ten/92L won't develop, I guess Irma can also be destructive (especially if it hits land). I hope that this system will stay in the open Atlantic though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:18, August 28, 2017 (UTC)


 * I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but the GFS has been tracking farther west towards the U.S. and Atlantic Canada as well, or at least hitting Bermuda as a strong hurricane. All of the latest runs from the Euro make this a cat 4/5 pointed at south Florida, and the HWRF also expects this to be strong and heading towards Florida in the long run as well. It may be a long way out but it's something to watch out for. Up to 50/80 and it could become a depression as soon as tomorrow. Ryan1000 00:54, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

Please, please no. Harvey is bad enough. A Cat 5 hitting South Florida would be just as bad. This season is starting to scare the crap out of me. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 01:27, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * As I mentioned earlier in Harvey's section, the United States's luck with no major hurricanes was bound to end some day. Harvey will hopefully be a reminder that worse will come our way in the next few decades. Moreover, given how active the MDR has been this year (case in point Bret, Don, and Harvey), I am not surprised that the models are going crazy with this system. This is almost like 2004, which started off very quiet but soon produced long-lived beasts, namely Frances and Ivan. Chances of formation for Invest 93L are now 50% for the next 48 hours and 80% for the next five days. Steve, as I commented previously, you seem to have some good fortune-telling skills with this season. On a side note, while we are talking about devastating storms, let me repeat an infamous saying that SkyFury would always say at this time of the year: BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:07, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * If only SkyFury can finally return someday. lol. Anyhow, this is very likely to continue the "I" curse because PTC 10 is being the most massive disappointment ever.
 * BEWARE THE "I" OF THE STORM!!!!!!!!!  ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:24, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm hoping this storm will continue the "I" curse. Ida and Ian from 2015 and 2016 respectively were weak and haven't caused any impacts on land. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:54, August 29, 2017 (UTC)

And it's now 70/90. This will most likely become Irma. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:55, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * I miss Eric... fwiw though, assuming this becomes Irma, then we'll probably have to wait until Jose to see the first storm of September, since it's looking increasingly likely that this will develop before the end of August (though the adage still applies to systems which form as depressions in August, but don't become named storms until September — Felix is one such example). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:16, August 29, 2017 (UTC)


 * Invest 93L is presently located near the Cabo Verde islands, and it may bring some heavy rainfall there, as noted in the latest NHC TWO. However, the most significant impacts will likely occur further west if the system develops and sustains itself. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:57, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS and HWRF have backed off on the intensity of this invest recently, but the Euro is still very agressive in the long-range intensity of this thing. However, the latest run of the Euro has pulled this a bit to the north in the last bit, so this may eventually make landfall north of Florida, but unless it remains out at sea, it would mean bad news elsewhere for where this does hit. Ryan1000 20:38, August 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, scratch that, the GFS is now on the bandwagon with the Euro, showing a major hurricane hitting south Florida over 10 days out. A long ways, yes, but after Harvey, we need to keep a very close eye on these heart-of-season storms. Ryan1000 01:25, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 90/90. PTC or TD 11 is coming (soon Irma). Get ready for the "I" storm! Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:43, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

100/100, NHC say advisories will most likely be initiated at 11am EDT. Kiewii 11:34, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irma
NHC have confirmed advisories will begin on 93L at 11am EDT, and ATCF says it is already up to 40kts/1006, marking the development of Tropical Storm Irma for the first time ever in the Atlantic. Kiewii 13:01, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looks like this could be a replay of the "I" curse. All depends on the track of this thing. Looks like will be a major at some point no matter whether it is a fish or something that impacts the U.S. --Whiplash (talk) 13:17, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Come on Irma, continue the "I" curse! Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:22, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * She's here. 50 mph on first advisory already. Looks like will be a hurricane before too long. --Whiplash (talk) 14:55, August 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * And she's forecast to hit 90 mph in 120 hours. May affect the Antilles adversely though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:10, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * This is looking highly threatening in the long run. Irma kind of reminds me of a somewhat more northerly version of Ivan (don't know if this will be a C5 though). BEWARE THE "I" OF THE STORM!!!!!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:33, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * I think Irma is going to become our second major hurricane of the season. She along with Harvey are really going to bring back up our ACE totals. And Kiewii, that's actually not true. The name Irma has been used before, and the last time it was used was back in 1978 before the new naming list. Owen 18:33, August 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Irma was previously used in the 1978 Atlantic hurricane season before the modern lists which began in 1979, and it was also used to name quite a few typhoons on the old WPac naming lists, and two SHem storms back in 1967 and 1987. But onto this Irma, the early portion of it's track is reminicent of Ike's in 2008, it's expected to move WNW, but the Bermuda High is expected to strengthen and force Irma west-southwest later on, and if that materializes, this could be a very severe storm for the northeastern Lesser Antilles in the long run, and if the ridge stays strong, Irma might storm through the Bahamas and crush south Florida like the Euro has been consistently showing. However, the GFS has backed off again on that and turns it northward and out to sea later on, though they were on board with the Euro earlier. Ryan1000 22:42, August 30, 2017 (UTC)

Now NHC takes this near the Lesser Antilles as a major. Looks like the "I" curse will continue this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:17, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Intensity on 65 mph/999 mbar. The last hurricane to be infected by the "I" curse was Ingrid in 2013. Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:58, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, this will be the first storm since Ingrid to be cursed by the "I". This could be a hurricane by tomorrow, and the NHC now forecasts a major. Irma scares me. The Lesser Antilles are doomed to take a massive beating from Irma. And the very long run is even more concerning. A potential U.S. strike in Florida or the Gulf Coast is very possible if the ridge stays strong; if not, an Irene repeat in that it strikes the east coast could occur. The uncertainty for the very long run is great. Now, I'm going to make the adage a little less spammy (in case you were wondering, I didn't create the adage, Leeboy did back in 2015 - see archives on Ida). And I am going to use it every time I post about this storm in hopes that this adage will hold up and become popular among Hurricane Wikia users. Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:08, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * One thing I also didn't notice until further research was that Irma formed in the same area as Hurricane Donna did on August 29, 1960. Irma was born a day later than that 57 years later on August 30, 2017. The early path looks similar and the possibility of C4/C5 exists with Irma, and Donna herself accomplished C5. Donna was a major hurricane that ended up making landfall around Naples and rode up the East Coast to the northeast. I don't have a great feeling, could Tampa, the most overdue city for a hurricane be the next one to be devastated by a hurricane this year? Quite possibly - I, living in Tampa, am a bit concerned. Like the United States' drought for a major hurricane, the Tampa shield is going to break soon. Not only that, but the interaction with the expected future Jose in the Gom and a cut off low from a meteorological perspective could be epic. Most importantly, as Irma, treks across the Greater Antilles that's a lot of real estate and threatening to lives. Irma means business. Owen 07:48, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually Owen, Donna was downgraded to a cat 4 at its peak in the hurricane reanalysis project earlier this year. Ethel of 1960 also suffered a major intensity nerf to minimal cat 3 in reanalysis. But there's a possibility that Irma might become a cat 5 in the long run, and if the Euro projections verify, then it looks like Irma will end a long drought for the Miami area, and a repeat of the 1926 hurricane, if Irma pulls that off (god firbid it), would rival or even exceed the 160 billion damage estimate from Harvey, which in of itself was much worse than if a repeat of the mighty 1900 hurricane for Houston and Galveston happened today. All that aside, Irma has strengthened slightly, and is now up to 65 mph/999 mbars. She may become a hurricane later today. Ryan1000 08:42, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 70 mph and 997 mbars, forecast now calls for a fairly powerful cat 3 approaching the northern Lessers down the road. Ryan1000 12:30, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Irma
Wow! We have a quickly intensifying hurricane on our hands (Category 2 already). I'm quite surprised. This one has plenty of time to intensify further, and if Irma becomes a Category 5 at any point in her life like I think she could, it will be the first time we have back-to-back seasons with a five since 2004/2005. Owen 14:51, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Oh my God, Irma just exploded. This is scary. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 14:55, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Wow, I didn't expect such rapid strengthening. This just skipped C1 status completely. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:59, August 31, 2017 (UTC) UPDATE: This isn't looking good for the Lesser Antilles and the US East Coast in the long run as Irma has been moving south of what current guidance is suggesting, which continues to trend further southward. The NHC shows a C4 approaching the Lesser Antilles at the end of the week. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:04, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Woah, I didn't expect Irma to intensify this fast, it completely skipped category 1 intensity and became a cat 2, I've never seen a storm do that before. Unless the storm entrains some dry air over the next day or two (which hasn't hindered Irma as much as the NHC initially expected), this might become a cat 5 before hitting the upper Lesser Antilles. They haven't seen a strong major hurricane since Lenny in November 1999, which approached from the southwest in the Caribbean; Georges the year before Lenny was the last major cape-verde type storm to hit the upper Lessers. The strengthening ridge also poses a problem, especially if it can stay strong while Irma heads westward, because that puts the U.S. eastern seaboard much more at risk. The Euro has trended from a cat 5 landfall in Miami southward to a major hurricane tearing through Hispaniola and Cuba before moving into the GoM. The GFS still doesn't expect the ridge to strengthen as much as the NHC expects, but they do make Irma an 898 mbar cat 5 coming dangerously close to Bermuda and later moving straight north into New England, so either way, Irma is a storm to watch out for. Ryan1000 16:36, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

This is already looking like a major hurricane. Since the advisories are being issued every 6 hours instead of 3, is it possible that in the next advisory Irma will be a Category 4? Once again skipping a status? Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 16:25, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Irma is continuing to strengthen. She really is trying to take off and pull a Julia 2010, but boy, she is going to be much more of an ACE generator. Owen 18:11, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * See here ! Hurricane Irma can be seen in Bahamas with another behind... Owen 19:13, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * Oh my... I am beyond frightened. Is Irma trying to pull off a Julia?! This could become a massive ACE maker, potentially along the lines of Ivan (2004) by the time Irma dissipates. I can't believe that we are getting these big, dangerous monsters all of a sudden. This is likely going to be the worst and most damaging year since 2005. It is forecast to be a major through the whole 5-day forecast and at this point, I might be surprised if Irma fails to become a C5 with all the favorable enough conditions ahead. Cooler waters and dry air should stop Irma before early next week, when favorable conditions return and it just gets beyond frightening from there. Stay tuned everyone, this could become as damaging as Harvey and extremely deadly once its dissipation day comes. I knew the early MDR tropical storms would mean something... this season is really scaring me. Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:48, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Irma
30 hours after it formed. Amazing. 100 kts/967 mbar per the latest advisory, 10-9-4-2. Even if Irma never affects land (we can only hope), it looks "I" curse is well and truly back in effect. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:36, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Wow. If Irma keeps strengthening at this rate, I'll be very surprised if it doesn't become a Category 5. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury. 20:45, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Category 4 is already in the NHC forecast...just as it starts reaching inhabited islands.12.144.5.2 21:05, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Rapid intensification begins. Meanwhile, media predicts Harvey will cost more than Katrina. <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  21:45, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

So, Irma is now scaring me personally. One of the models (I forget which one, maybe the Euro?) takes Irma close to where I live, if not, directly hitting where I live. Now, I live in a part of Florida where hurricanes are quite common, and we have gotten a few big ones, like Ivan. The problem is it's been 12 years since a hurricane has made a direct hit in this area, it was Dennis, in case you're wondering. This scares me, because the population of where I live has grown dramatically since 2005. So, I don't know how everyone will fare in this storm, with a lot of people living here who've never experienced a hurricane before. Heck, I don't know how I'd prepare for a direct hit. I barely even remember what it's like to see a powerful storm slowly moving towards you, although I do vividly remember the aftermath of Ivan and Dennis. No matter where it hits though, Irma is looking bad, and season is really starting to scare me. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 00:46, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Already a Category 3 hurricane, Irma is a little scary to watch as it will potentially continue to RI into a Category 5. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:10, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory has lowered the intensity forecast (though still ends with 140 mph winds).12.144.5.2 02:54, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory said that Irma's RI phase is over... for now. We may still see our next C5 from this storm. I hope the Antilles are prepared for this. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:09, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Irma (2nd time)
She is currently undergoing an ERC so intensity is down to 95/972, expected to weaken slightly further, and no longer forecast to reach Category 4 strength within the next five days. Kiewii 14:54, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

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 * It's not out of the question though, as conditions will become favorable again by that time, so the Lessers should still watch out. Ryan1000 18:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Whom I now refer to as Insane Irma is looking good again! To be a major hurricane out in that region is impressive enough, but the fact that Irma won't be heading into the subtropics or for an early recurve really makes this interesting. If Irma is strengthening again, she could possibly become a Cat 4 east of 40W, on a westwardly track toward some sort of land area. Nothing like that has ever happened. Irma has the biggest potential to become the strongest storm the Atlantic has ever seen. I don't think that will happen, but I'd bet on it becoming a Cat 5 and being able to stay there for a long time. To have a Cat 4 going west toward the US/Bahamas at its only at 40W.....the potential for this storm is baffling. Owen 19:33, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Euro has moved north from a Miami landfall in its latest runs, expecting Irma to eventually head into Georgia or the Carolinas as a large and powerful major hurricane down the road, while the GFS takes this north of the Antilles and then storming on a straight south-north rush into New England, particularly over Rhode Island or Massachusetts as a very powerful hurricane. It's still too soon to tell if Irma will hit the U.S. (there's still a decent possibility it may recurve east and out to sea; hopefully that happens, especially if the Antilles get hit by this), but the long-range potential U.S. landfalls from the global models are concerning, even at this point in time. EDIT: Also, according to Dr. Masters latest blog post, Irma is the earliest storm on record to become a major hurricane east of 35 degrees west and one of only five to do so since 1970; the others were Frances of 1980, Isaac of 2000, Fred of 2009 and Julia of 2010. Ryan1000 20:12, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Irma (2nd time)
"Well, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long." 105 kts/964 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:59, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lol, I was about to quote that from Blake in the new forecast discussion, NHC's humor never dissapoints. :) Anyways, the forecast now shows Irma going up to cat 4 again, but it'll be a while, as it's moving over only marginally favorable conditions right now, some dry air to the northwest of the storm and SST's at only the minimum needed for hurricane formation should keep the intensity in check until it nears the upper Lessers next week. Ryan1000 21:24, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope this one can intensify into a Category 4. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 23:32, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 68...that's only provided Irma stays out to sea. We don't want to root for it if it's a threat to land. Unfortunately, the 18Z GFS hasn't made Irma's long-range track any more promising, they now forecast Irma to be a 948 mbar major hurricane directly hitting NYC in 216 hours. This is all still far out, but the GFS has been trending increasingly farther west towards a U.S. landfall, and the Euro is still taking it to a strong hurricane landfall somewhere along the southeast coast. Ryan1000 00:13, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * The new South Ferry subway station Sandy flooded into uselessness reopened in June,so maybe the tropical weather gods decided New York is due for another hit.12.144.5.2 01:38, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * And never mind, I hope it weakens instead. Pressure up to 967 mbar. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 05:54, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Irma (3rd time)
Welp, back down to cat 2, 110 mph/970 mbars. Forecast to go back up to a major again later on. Ryan1000 09:27, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's going to be a long week... Kiewii 09:45, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * The eye's clearing out again. Looks like Irma's going back up to C3 by the end of the hour. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:38, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Never mind. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:01, September 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, this storm is way more boring than I expected. T  G  2 0 1 7 15:08, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Sigh. Who knows if it lasts for a couple of weeks... Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 16:05, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's expected to rise back up to C4 strength (130 mph) when it passes north of the Lessers. I think this could become a fishspinner (hopefully), but the East Coast still has to watch out. I also agree that the continued fluctuating between C2 and C3 status is a bit frustrating. Everywhere along the East Coast (and maybe even Florida or the Lessers) should brace for impacts... Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:59, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * The GFS is becoming increasingly aggressive with this, the 18Z run from today now takes Irma down to an 878 mbar category 5 monster off the southeast coast before weakening to a 919 mbar category 5 hitting Virginia and the mid-Atlantic, god forbid a hurricane hit that area of the U.S. The latest run of the Euro recurves Irma offshore the U.S. east coast before it makes landfall (hopefully that happens), but they make this a powerful cat 4 hitting the upper lessers at the same time. The NHc forecast still makes Irma a cat 4, but narrowly missing the lessers to the north. However, due to Irma's very small size, a small deviation in her track can make the difference between devastation and no impacts at all to the islands; both of the models see Irma expanding after that before she approaches or eventually hits the U.S. east coast. Ryan1000 23:38, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Has the unprecedented amount of hot air emanating from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue affected the storm track?12.144.5.2 01:50, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Irma going through another Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Isn't this like the third or fourth ERC Irma has gone through? I don't think I've ever seen a hurricane go through this many eyewall replacement cycles in such a short period of time. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 03:44, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Irma is making that southward jog that the NHC has been anticipating, and it appears to be getting better organized as conditions are becoming more favorable for it, although it's still expected to miss the islands to the north. In their forecast discussion, NHC also notes that while Irma may currently be a small hurricane, it could grow in size before it hits the upper lessers; if it doesn't, most of the models predict Irma will definitely grow in size afterwards. The latest GFS and Euro runs both make this a large and powerful cat 5 hitting North Carolina down the road. Ryan1000 08:15, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Irma (3rd time)
Again, another 5-knot increase, another new header. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:10, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Irma can't make up her mind, can she. :/ However, conditions are starting to get better for Irma by now, and it's WSW movement will continue for the next day or two before it turns WNW again. The 06Z GFS still makes it an enlarging, sub-900 mbar category 5 storm north of the Bahamas, and making a 900 mbar cat 5 landfall in southern North Carolina in about 8-9 days. If Irma hits NC at that intensity, it would be the strongest hurricane to ever hit North Carolina, and the northernmost cat 5 on record in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 11:45, September 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC forecast says it will peak at 140mph winds,though,who has it hitting 156?12.144.5.2 17:07, September 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Every time, it strengthens and then weakens and then it strengthens again. This one is getting boring to watch. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 19:41, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane watch now in effect for the upper part of the Lessers. Latest NHC track says that Irma might impact the Bahamas later this week. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:03, September 3, 2017 (UTC) HMON model today.

Intermediate advisory has same speed winds but lower pressure.If Irma settles on an eyewall rather than staying in the changing room we could be in for a cat 4 soon.12.144.5.2 01:30, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

As someone in Tampa, I am deeply concerned. I've had a feeling for a while Irma might ride up the West Coast of Florida then slam into Tampa and make the run up the Eastern Seaboard. I wouldn't rule it out. Especially if Irma gets close enough to Hispaniola and Cuba to make the move the hurricane a bit more to the west hugging the coastlines. The GFS has literally been making this a Category 5 slamming into the United States in every single run. I cannot imagine a C4/C5 even going up the spine of Florida and riding all the way through. I trust the models more now with the new recon data and the trend has been getting more southwest - and much much more concerning. Owen 04:23, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * The 06Z GFS doesn't stop making it a 5 either, now they forecast it to be an 899 mbar storm riding up the west coast of Florida before moving inland, meaning Cape Canaveral, the keys, and other areas up the coast will be hit possibly as hard as Tampa. The 00Z Euro's intensity forecast for today is more conservative than the GFS, but they still make it a colossal 932 mbar cat 4 storming into northern Cuba before turning north and hitting near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. If the Bermuda High stays strong until Irma reaches Cuba, it's hard to imagine her missing a U.S. landfall, the big question is where. Ryan1000 10:30, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Irma is becoming nastier and nastier. I think it's possible to see a Category 2/3 (with land interaction with Cuba) going through Florida and bringing heavy storm surge with the size the models want to grow her to. In the Tampa Bay area, the water will have nowhere to go but rise. I live in Pinellas County, if this scenario verifies, I expect mandatory evacuations for my area to be made. Owen 15:27, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

Currently 120 mph, 944 mbars. This is getting scarier by the minute; Irma is now forecast to reach 145 mph in 48 hours. Hurricane warnings now in place for Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saba, St. Eustatius, Sint Maarten/Saint Martin, and Saint Barthelemy. Dominica is under a tropical storm watch; Puerto Rico, the British & U.S. Virgin Islands and Guadeloupe are now under hurricane warning(s). If this and the AOI below both affect the Antilles within days as major storms, we may see a repeat of 1995's Luis & Marilyn. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:30, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

The NHC sees that 145mph as a PEAK,though,weakening after that,so well short of C5.But the track has been getting worse and worse for Cuba,and potentially the Gulf.Is Irma chasing Harvey after all?--12.144.5.2 15:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well, I won't be surprised if this intensifies into a Cat. 5. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * If Irma takes the forecasted path, she most likely will not be on the list again. She's a big girl and is going to pack one hell of a punch wherever she decides to make a landfall. Owen 17:46, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well,she keeps trying on new eyewalls which distracts her from punching anybody.12.144.5.2 18:14, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * AL, 11, 2017090418,, BEST, 0, 167N, 539W, 115, 944, HU, ...We have a Cat4. Owen 18:58, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ok, Irma is really looking like a re-Ike. The Lesser Antilles, and later on Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba, will take a terribad punch from the hurricane. The discussion notes that impacts in Florida are possible. But with the way it's going, it might bring impacts to Harvey recovery areas in the very long run. This is a very scary monster. Won't even be surprised if it becomes a C5. "I" is cursed for the first time since 2013, and it will be the first time since 2011 that the letter was used for a destructive major hurricane. Beware the I of the storm!!!!! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:22, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

Irma is now a Category 4. 130 mph, 944 mb. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 20:45, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

The forecast peak is now up to 150mph winds BUT it starts weakening after tomorrow.12.144.5.2 21:13, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Irma may get stronger than that, it wouldn't surprise me if Irma becomes a cat 5 as it approaches or passes just north of the Antilles tomorrow. Both of the global models predicted in their 12Z runs today that Irma would hit Miami as a powerful major hurricane and then head north to hit Savannah, Georgia, but the GFS makes the miami landfall an 897 mbar cat 5 monster, while the Euro does it as a 935 mbar cat 4. Either scenario would be catastrophic; if a category 5 hurricane hit Miami today in a similar fashion to the great Miami hurricane of 1926, it could cause as much damage as Harvey is currently projected to cause, if not worse (since Irma could head farther north up the coast and make a second powerful landfall somewhere, if it doesn't in Savannah). Ryan1000 21:43, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

NHC is predicting a Cat. 4 landfall in South Florida with Irma. Which would be the second of the season. Does anyone even remember the last time there were two cat. 4 landfalls in the US in a single season? Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 22:06, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Latest GFS run shows Irma destroying 80% of Florida.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:30, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * @Lee: There has never been an instance of 2 Category 4+ intensity landfalls on the continental U.S. in a single season as far as I can tell. Only example that might count of two "U.S." Cat 4+ landfalls would be 1928 where the Okechobee hurricane made landfall in Puerto Rico as a Cat 5 (if you can't Puerto Rico as U.S.) and then went on to make landfall in Florida as a 4. But that was the same system not two different ones. --Whiplash (talk) 22:40, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * If the models do hold true and Irma makes a strike anywhere near the Miami area as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane this season damage-wise will be more destructive than the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season the previous record holder, and we aren't even close to being done yet there still could be another destructive hurricane later in the season but hopefully not. --Whiplash (talk) 22:55, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually Whiplash, 1992 technically had two category 4+ U.S. landfalling hurricanes in one season (Andrew and Iniki), but Iniki was a Pacific hurricane that hit Hawaii; if Irma hits Florida as a cat 4 or stronger, it would be the first time on record in which two Atlantic category 4 hurricanes hit the U.S. at category 4 or stronger strength in one year (operationally, 1945 and 1949 were thought to have accomplished that as well, but the category 4 hurricanes that hit Texas in those two seasons were downgraded to category 3 and 2 intensity, respectively, in the hurricane reanalysis project). Anyhow, back to Irma, yeah, the 18Z GFS is completed, they now make Irma an 891 mbar cat 5 hitting the south-central end of Florida, southwest of Miami but northeast of the Keys and riding up the entire state, that would be terrible to see in Florida. Ryan1000 23:44, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 140 mph, 943 mbars. Sooner or later Irma will dethrone Harvey as this season's strongest (so far). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:52, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Florida has had its share of major landfalls...Keys 1919,Miami 1926,Okeechobee 1928,Labor Day 1935,Fort Lauderdale 1947,Donna 1960,Andrew 1992...but where will Irma rank among them?12.144.5.2 01:39, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Irma is on the verge to be a Category 5 hurricane. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 02:08, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * My query relates to impact on Florida.(Wilma was a champ among Cat 5s,but wasn't that when hitting Florida,though my cousin certainly endured damage).12.144.5.2 03:12, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

2 AM advisory just came in. Now up to 145 mph, pressure down to 939, also thanks for the info guys, surprising that no Atlantic season has had two category 4 landfalls. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 05:40, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 1 Mbar short of Harvey, but it's likely to get stronger in the next advisory or two. Irma isn't far from category 5 intensity and it might become one just before passing by or over the northeaternmost islands in the Lesser Antilles, (particularly Anguilla), but it may become one later on as well. Only unpredictable ERC's that may expand the size of Irma may keep it in check; otherwise, she's having a field day out there. The global models both agree on a landfall in south-central Florida and riding up the state as a powerful major hurricane, but the NHC forecast has been shifting north, if Irma manages to shift to a landfall over Miami, it would be one of the worst hurricanes to hit the U.S, and could rival or well exceed the damage caused by Harvey. Ryan1000 07:09, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Irma now 150/937. Harvey dethroned as strongest of the season. Recon should probably find a strong 4 or Category 5. Owen 08:48, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

This is a (bigger) monster unraveling right before our eyes. Another history is being made, just weeks after Harvey. You're right Owen, this will most likely become a C5, unless it becomes Joaquin-esque (which stayed at 150 mph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:51, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * NOAA Mission #7 is now getting ready to pass through the center. I won't be surprised it finds a C5; Irma's looking really scary on satellite imagery right now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:06, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Irma
Lord have mercy. Recon found a Cat 5. Owen 11:46, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh no. Irma's gotta go after this year. 175 mph, 929 mbars. Is she the strongest since 2005? Or was it Igor? Well, whatever. This is pure madness. May the areas in her path be prepared for her wrath.
 * EDIT: She is the strongest since 2007's Felix. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC) (Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:48, September 5, 2017 (UTC))
 * At 5 AM they found 150mph winds and the forecast was this would stay steady for two days and then weaken.At 7:45 AM they found 175mph...looks like Irma pulled a fast one!12.144.5.2 12:01, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * The models (unfortunately) nailed this, to be honest. Irma is expected to be a C5 for at least 48 hours from now. Forecast to peak at 180 mph. This is a storm for the books — like her predecessor (aka Harvey). This is a disaster unfolding right before our eyes. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:05, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Oh my gosh. I cannot believe how it just jumped up to 175 mph this fast. Leeboy100 Thinking of Texas. 12:28, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Its pressure is unusually high for a 175mph cane. Looks to be in the range of Felix/Carla more than anything else.

Will the pressure be lower at the 11 AM advisory?12.144.5.2 12:39, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane IRMA As of 12:00 UTC Sep 05, 2017:


 * Location: 16.7°N 57.8°W
 * Maximum Winds: 155 kt Gusts: N/A
 * Minimum Central Pressure: 929 mb
 * Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
 * Radius of Circulation: 300 NM
 * Radius of Maximum Wind: 15 NM

Strongest hurricane in Atlantic since Wilma in 2005. No words. Owen 12:51, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * NHC expects further strengthening to 180 mph soon; if it does, Irma will exceed Felix as the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Wilma (in pressure since Dean, unless Irma gets below 905 mbars). Looks like the GFS wasn't crazy predicting a cat 5 after all, though even that model didn't expect Irma to intensify to a cat 5 this fast. It's time to start praying for the folks in the upper Lessers and Florida, Irma may be their worst hurricane in decades, if not ever. EDIT: (Be careful with putting in coded formats Owen, you might accidentally cause errors on the rest of the page; everything below was indented twice. Don't worry, I fixed it, but be sure to switch to source mode from visual mode at the top-right hand corner of the editor from now on when putting in coded formats). Ryan1000 12:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * It may supersede Charley as Florida's worst since Andrew,but to be their worst ever,it would have to beat out Labor Day 1935,Okeechobee 1928,and more...12.144.5.2 13:28, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

September
It's already September in UTC; might as well start this now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:04, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'll add the disturbance just in case it forms on this month.Hi!-68.106.0.77 04:43, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical wave behind Hurricane Irma
This tropical wave is emerging from the African coast a bit south of where Irma is so this future system could end up being a low-rider. Currently highlighted by NHC at 0/20. Depending on the development order between this and the GOM Aoi, it will either be Jose or Katia. Owen 18:11, August 31, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel this could be another big one... the Atlantic is being really frightening right now. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:50, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Oh my, is the Atlantic on a roll right now? I hope not, but this is the peak of the season... anyway, this thing is still at 0/20 (just like the AOI below), and things can still change. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:12, August 31, 2017 (UTC)Models are now developing this into Jose and it looks poise to become our next major if its not affected by shear of Irma. This one is a low rider so strenghtening is forecast as it will pass warmer water than Irma. The lesser antilles should keep an eye on this one as it might be a double punch after all. Allan calderini


 * 0/40. This is really something to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:07, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50. Are we about to see two back-to-back Cape Verde type hurricanes? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:36, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:43, September 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Here comes Jose, which could become another major Cape-Verde type hurricane. I have sort of a bad feeling with this one as well... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:01, September 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/70. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 01:33, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Back to 0/60. This may be weaker than Irma though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:04, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/70. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:32, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Currently 30/70, may change in the next advisory though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 40/80. The race to Jose is on, will it be this or the Bay of Campeche AOI? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:36, September 4, 2017 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Invested and up to 40/80. It may become Jose once it's a TS. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 50/80. I hope this won't exacerbate the (expected) impacts/effects of Irma. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 60/90. Already producing winds of near tropical storm force. While everyone is focused on Irma, we have to keep an eye on what will probably become Tropical Storm Jose. Could be another hurricane...maybe third major in a row. Owen 05:36, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't want to get financial advice from a hurricane specialists...their INVEST-ments lead to depressions!12.144.5.2 06:12, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol 12. This isn't likely to do as much as Irma, due to outflow from the latter that should keep this in check intensity-wise and a more northward turn that will likely make this miss the Lesser Antilles and the U.S. Bermuda may have to watch out down the road though, and maybe Atlantic Canada.Ryan1000 07:18, September 5, 2017 (UTC)80/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:51, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Gulf of Mexico
Another AOI is on the Gulf of Mexico. It's at 10/10. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes!-68.106.0.77 19:36, September 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 10/20. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 01:40, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 10/30. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 06:32, September 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now 20/40. This is really the peak of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 40/50. Not sure if it becomes Katia. Hurricanes, hurricanes, hurricanes! -68.106.0.77 17:42, September 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Maria? This will become at most Katia if it is named... anyway, this might probably only be a TS because conditions are only marginally conducive. The race to Jose is on! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:38, September 4, 2017 (UTC) ====95L.INVEST====

Invested and is now at 50/60. The loser will become Katia, the winner becomes Jose — unless one of them follows the same fate as PTC 10. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Woah, it's now 60/70. The race for Jose is really on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:53, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at glance
Now that we had three storms with two affecting land, I think we should discuss retirements.

Andros 1337 (talk) 01:53, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Pre-season surprise, but did not affect land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Bret - 5% - Caused minor damage in the Caribbean.
 * Cindy - 15% - Damage total unknown, but caused significant flooding and tornadoes, but overshadowed by Harvey.
 * Don - 10% - May have a slight chance of being retired for political reasons, but I wouldn't count on it, so I will keep my estimate conservative.
 * Emily - 0.01% - Very minor impact.
 * Franklin - 5% - Damage total unknown, but probably minor and caused no deaths.
 * Gert - 1% - Caused two deaths due to rip currents, but that is it.
 * Harvey - 100% - Record flooding in Texas, an obvious retirement candidate.

It's still a bit early to discuss retirements, but Cindy was somewhat notable, so I guess it's ok for now. But I'll save my calls for later. Ryan1000 09:26, June 27, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
I guess it won't hurt to add this in now. (Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : 0% - Really nice to have a surprise once in a while. I liked Arlene while she lasted out in the open. She will most likely be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : 10% - Another big surprise happened after Arlene and it was Bret. Bret was the earliest Cape Verde type storm to form. Unfortunately, Bret did strike Trinidad and killed two people I have upped the chances because it is a fairly unusual location for a tropical cyclone to strike. I know that this storm will be back in 2023, though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : 20% - Wow. That surprisingly brought a big punch to the gulf states. Cindy ties Allison as the 4th wettest tropical cyclone in Mississippi and Erin of 1995 as the 5th wettest tropical cyclone in Indiana. This brought several tornadoes across the South and extensive flooding. The damage is still unknown as of now, but this storm could have a fairly high damage total for a TS. T  G  2 0 1 7 00:55, June 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#094">25% - People might think I'm crazy for giving this a 25% chance, and you would be right if this didn't generate gobs of negative media attention. This could get the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment as another user on here said. I would've gave this a 50% chance if Don caused some damage to the Leeward Islands. T  G  2 0 1 7 16:45, July 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#889">0.01% - I liked how Emily defied the forecasts and became a TS, which was pretty cool. The $96,000 in damages from an EF0 tornado is the only damage total that we have from Emily as of now. It was also the first time since Matthew that a state of emergency was declared for Florida. The state of emergency was for resources, though and wasn't any catastrophe. Emily is most likely coming back in 2023. T  G  2 0 1 7 10:36, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Franklin miraculously caused no fatalities in Mexico. There is almost no chance of retirement. The only damage from Franklin was minimal.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#449">5% - Two people drowned from rip currents in the United States, which is very sad. Gert defied all of the forecasts, becoming not a Category 1 hurricane, but a Category 2 hurricane! I thought that Gert wouldn't be any stronger than a strong TS, but I was very wrong. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:50, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#500">100% - I really have no words about how bad this storm was. Harvey jumped off a cliff, and could bring Irma with him. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 17:57, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements from Steve
Retirement percentage colors

<font color="#000">0%, <font color="#003">~0% , <font color="#006">0.000...1% , <font color="#009">0.01% , <font color="#00C">0.1% , <font color="#00F">1% , <font color="#03F">1.5% , <font color="#06F">2% , <font color="#09F">3% , <font color="#0CF">4% , <font color="#0FF">5% , <font color="#0FC">7.5% , <font color="#0F9">10% , <font color="#0F6">15% , <font color="#0F3">20% , <font color="#0F0">25% , <font color="#3F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F30">70% , <font color="#F00">75% , <font color="#F03">80% , <font color="#F06">85% , <font color="#F09">90% , <font color="#F0C">95% , <font color="#F0F">97% , <font color="#C0C">99% , <font color="#909">99.9% , <font color="#606">99.999...% , <font color="#303">~100% , <font color="#000">100% 

Intensity colors

<font color="#0CF">Weak TS (40-45 mph), <font color="#00faf4">Moderate TS (50-60 mph) , <font color="#ccffff">Strong TS (65-70 mph) , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 (Minor Hurricane) , <font color="#ffe775">C2 (Moderate Hurricane) , <font color="#ffc140">C3 (Intense Hurricane) , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 (Severe Hurricane) , <font color="#ff6060">160-180 mph C5 (Extreme Hurricane) , <font color="#900">≥185 mph C5 (Catastrophic Hurricane) 

Grading colors

'''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''


 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#003">~0%, <font color="#086">B+ - The high grade is the result of an unusual and awesome April formation. Since it was only a moderate TS, B+ is the highest grade it can receive.
 * <font color="#0CF">Bret : <font color="#06F">2% , <font color="#F00">F  - Struck a somewhat unusual location and caused 2 deaths (one indirect); both the deaths and location could up the retirement chance a tad bit. Its unusual location for June saves the storm's grade from being lower than what I gave. Still a fail though.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#0FF">5%, <font color="#F50">D - Caused plenty of flooding in the Midwest and the Gulf region around Texas/Louisiana as well as 3 deaths (2 direct, 1 indirect). Full damage totals aren't out, but the U.S. has been through MUCH worse tropical storms (like Allison 2001 for example). Also, this has been very overshadowed by Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#0F3">20% , <font color="#F00"><font color="#A00">Z - Failed to redeem itself after 2011. Call me crazy for giving 20% to a failure, but the usage of the name garnered negative media attention and I'd give a small chance that this will receive the Isis, Adolph, etc treatment and be retired. The chance could be even higher, but this type of retirement has never occurred in the Atlantic, plus the NHC clarified the name is supposed to have no relationship to Trump. A 50 mph peak prevents this from getting my worst grade.
 * <font color="#0CF">Emily : <font color="#009">0.01% , <font color="#F20">D- - Not much impact. Grading credit comes from its rapid and unexpected formation.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#0FC">7.5% , <font color="#8F0">C+  - I give grading credit to Frank for becoming the season's first hurricane. Damage totals are unknown and there hasn't been any deaths (thank god). Damage could have been a bit extensive, however.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#006">0.000...1% , <font color="#086">B+  - Got stronger than what initial forecasts called for. 2 saddening deaths from rip currents is nowhere near enough for the name to be considered for retirement, especially because they were indirect.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#303">~100%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Will be retired unless the NHC is on drugs. As of the time I wrote this, damage and death tolls continue to increase. Harvey's strength and longevity is deserving of an "A+", but because of what it did to Texas, the grade freefalls to C+.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

My Prediction of Retirements
Welp, ok. I guess I could make my predictions right now.

50% or more=italics That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:58, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

Only real retirement candidate is Don (and maybe Hilary in the Pacific) if it gets the "Adolph"/"Israel"/"Isis" treatment. Don't see "Cindy" going anywhere TekkenGuy12 (talk) 03:47, July 20, 2017 (UTC)


 * UPDATE: Obviously Harvey's going. Irma looks likely to be retired as well. We'll see what happens. --TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:40, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Arlene & Bret - 0% - See y'all in 2022, early surprises.
 * Cindy - 10% - Minor impacts but I do not see this getting retired after this season.
 * Don - 4% - 0.5% for its possible impacts in the Caribbean, 3.5% for the possibility it may go after this season due to political issues.
 * Emily - 0% - Surprisingly formed, but sorry it's a no. You're not going anywhere.
 * Franklin - 15% - Had notable impacts, but Mexico has seen worse.
 * Gert - 0.1% - That .1% is for being an incredible fishspinner, but to be honest we'll see Gert again in 2023.
 * Harvey - 100% - Now this is the name we will (most likely) not see in 2023. Thought to be a flop, but became a monstrous Category 4 after regenerating and made landfall in Texas at peak intensity. This may be one for the books. This is a storm that looks like a bad combination of Allison, Celia and Carla. At least 3 deaths have been reported so far, and the damage is now estimated to cost $2 billion. I just hope this won't be Texas's Sandy or Katrina, or a worse repeat of Ike. Never mind. This will surely go.
 * Irma - TBA - still active; this is a storm to watch for though.

That's it for now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:29, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

(Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:46, August 30, 2017 (UTC).)

Owen's Retirement Opinions

 * Arlene - 0% - She was another pre-season surprise, and became the strongest TC to develop in April, but like Ana of 2003, I don't see her going anywhere.
 * Bret - 0% - He came the earliest TC to develop in the MDR on record, but damage in his path was pretty minimal.
 * Cindy - 15% - I might be a tad conservative with Cindy just because the damage total is still unknown, but I've seen worse tropical cyclones not get retired.
 * Don - 20% - Again, to TG's point, put aside the minimal impacts. Due to just simply the media poking fun or expressing negative coverage at President Trump, it's quite possible the name Don and maybe even Hilary could be removed from the naming lists.
 * Emily - 5% - What a surprise, I slept through much of her though (I live in the Tampa Bay area) and the impacts weren't that bad. Just a bit of a rainmaker and some minimal damage here and there.
 * Franklin - 10% - With what data is available, I don't think Franklin is going to be retired. However, if a new report comes out showing significant damage, he could easily get his odds bumped.
 * Gert - 2% - Killed two people and defied the forecasts and became a beautiful C2, but it still won't be enough to be retired.
 * Harvey - 100% - There is no doubt that what could be the costliest natural disaster in US history will be getting the boot.
 * Irma - Very likely - Absolute monster, even without US impact I think it could get retired based on what it might do to the islands first. Without any doubt, if Irma hits the U.S. as a major hurricane like some models say it could in the long range, we will be looking at our second retirement candidate and the first instance of 2 retired names in a row since Rita and Stan in 2005.

Owen 21:40, July 21, 2017 (UTC)

Leeboy100's Retirement predictions
My turn! Leeboy100 Hello! 18:24, July 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene -0%: Awesome early forming storm that stayed out to sea. Didn't do any damage, so Arlene is staying.
 * Bret -1%: Caused two deaths, but other than that, impacts were minimal.
 * Cindy -20%: Did some damage and caused flooding and tornadoes. But damage was relatively minimal. Most likely staying.
 * Don -25%: Didn't cause any damage, but as some of you all have pointed out, it could receive the Adolph and Isis treatment. Hilary in the Pacific has a chance of going as well, for the same reasons.
 * Emily -1%: Minimal impacts.
 * Franklin -2%: Still no exact damage numbers, but it doesn't seem too bad. Thankfully, there were no deaths.
 * Gert -1%: Defied all forecasts by becoming almost a major hurricane. Unfortunately caused two deaths due to rip currents.
 * Harvey - 100%: Damages around $15 billion, with a new damage estimate saying damage is potentially  $160 billion!!  If confirmed, that would shatter Katrina's record. Harvey is gone, without a shadow of a doubt.
 * Irma TBA- Currently active.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Well, I made mine for the other basins, so why not here?

Well, that's it...for now. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - 0% - Became the first tropical storm to form in April since 2003's Ana, and it also stands alongside Estelle in the EPac as the most commonly used tropical cyclone name in the NHC's AOR track record, with this being the 11th time Arlene was used since 1959. And because Arlene didn't affect land, we're certainly going to see Arlene used again in 2023.
 * Bret - 1% - Caused minor impacts in the southern lesser antilles, with two deaths reported, and it became one of only 3 June storms in the Atlantic to form in this location, along with Ana '79 and the 1933 Trinidad hurricane. But it won't be retired.
 * Cindy - 15% - Somewhat damaging storm for the southeastern U.S, but it likely won't be retired. Cindy is also the second most commonly used Atlantic storm name, after Arlene and tied with Frances (9 uses since 1959), but since Frances was retired, and Cindy won't be, we'll see her on the list for the 10th time in 2023.
 * Don - 1% - Wasn't much different than Bret. I also doubt he'll be removed from the naming lists just because the current U.S. president just so happens to have the same name; if that does happen, I won't count Don as a real retirement (due to impact), just like how I don't count storms like Adolph/Isis/Israel as retired names due to impact, which is what I consider here.
 * Emily - 1% - 96,000 dollars in damage is rather low for a U.S. landfalling TS; couple that with no deaths, and Emily probably won't go.
 * Franklin - 10% - Fortunately, no deaths have been reported from Franklin, unlike how Earl of last year killed over 90 people in Mexico, and damage probably wasn't bad enough for retirement.
 * Gert - 1% - It's a shame that two people were killed from Gert due to rip currents, but otherwise it didn't affect land.
 * Harvey - 100% - If the initial estimates from Accuwather are confirmed, Harvey caused as much as 190 billion dollars in damage to Texas; Texas Governor Greg Abbott said overall damages are likely between 150 billion and 180 billion dollars, considering it took 120 billion to rebuild New Orlenas after Katrina. It's highly likely that Harvey will be the costliest natural disaster in American history, and he will, without question, be retired after this year.
 * Irma - ?? - Still active, but if the current Euro and GFS projections prove accurate and the NHC forecast verifies, the "I" curse is looking like it'll repeat itself this year...

Isaac's predictions
Here's mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:41, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Everyone else - 0%.
 * Harvey - 100% - For the damage so far.

Puffle's prediction party
sorry for the cringey title (Retirement colors: <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#02C">0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) ''' CREDIT TO STEVE FOR COLORS ok go: btw i wasnt rly paying attention until harvey happened

<font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  02:00, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Arlene : <font color="#ff00ff">no% went in a circle and died. the end
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bret : <font color="#02c">0.01% is this a joke. barely made landfall but eh.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Cindy : <font color="#04a">1% literally landfalled in the same place as Harvey.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Don : <font color="#dead40">fish% fish
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emily : <font color="#02c">waitwhat% stop with the fails, and how was emily not retired
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Franklin : <font color="#02c">0.01% ok
 * <font color="#ffe775">Gert : <font color="#ff00ff">lame% fish
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Harvey : <font color="#C20000">100% HOLY CRUD HARVEY. I PREDICTED THIS TWO YEARS AGO! (Also people are predicting that Harvey will cost more than Katrina.)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Irma : <font color="#02c">Active%


 * Puffle, please give credit to me too because I created the scale colors. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:29, September 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * And the grades are unnecessary, since it doesn't appear that you are using them... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:51, September 1, 2017 (UTC)

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Adding a color scale for the first time.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F .

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * Arlene – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Made April absolutely amazing.
 * Bret – grade  C , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . At least it tried to do something before being sheared to shreds in the graveyard.
 * Cindy – grade  E , retirement <font color="#7F00FF">15% . Didn't look that tropical for most of its lifetime.
 * Don – grade  E , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5%  due to the media association with Donald Trump. Otherwise this was pathetic; it gets an E for going above 35 knots.
 * Emily – grade  D , retirement <font color="#FF00FF">10% . It tried, but wasn't particularly memorable.
 * Franklin – grade  B , retirement <font color="#0000FF">20%  for damage. One of a common type of storm that crosses the Yucatan before rapidly developing in the BoC.
 * Gert – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5%  for the two deaths it caused. Really kept us waiting for a while, but eventually became a C2.
 * Harvey – grade  A , retirement <font color="#330000">100% . Powerful C4 that would have been great as a fish, but turned into a flooding nightmare for Texas and Louisiana. Really, did you have to give Houston 50 inches of rain?
 * PTC 10 – grade  F  (and a designation can't be retired). Was tipped to become Irma, but it busted.
 * Irma – currently active.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 15:01, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Jdcomix's predictions
Jdcomix (talk) 02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)
 * Arlene - Grade A, 0% - Fish storm, but in April. Awesome storm.
 * Bret - Grade C, 5% - You tried. Only chance is if an island country requests this for retirement, which I doubt.
 * Cindy - Grade D, 5% - Near hurricane strength storm in June, so I'll give it some credit for that.
 * Don - Grade E, 10% - Only reason I give this a higher chance of retirement than the others so far is because of the name being the same as the current President, but even that's a stretch. Pathetic storm either way.
 * Emily - Grade D, 5% - Hit Florida with some minor impacts, nothing really to warrant retirement, though.
 * Franklin - Grade B, 10% - Giving this a low chance of retirement because there were surprisingly no deaths in Mexico, unlike Earl last year.
 * Gert - Grade B, 0% - Fish storm, but the first Cat 2 of the year and an at an unusually high latitude.
 * Harvey - Grade A, 100% - Bye felicia!
 * PTC 10 - Grade F, 0% - Can't be retired, would have become Irma but busted
 * Irma, Ongoing. Looks like it'll be retired, though. They'll probably retire it even if it just hits the Leewards.
 * 94L/Jose, Ongoing. Adding this because it has high chances of developing.

Dylan's predictions

 * Arlene: 0% - In terms of impacts, this was nothing more than April showers over the open Atlantic, but as only the second purely tropical Atlantic storm ever recorded in the month, this was a welcome surprise.
 * Bret: 5% - Cool to see something so far south so early in the season, but this storm was low on impact, and I'm having a hard time seeing how Bret won't be back in 2023.
 * Cindy: 10% - Standard-issue early-season Gulf Coast TS.
 * Don: 2% - Ryan said it best, though should Don get the boot for political reasons, I'll second the calls in for my name to take its place ;) (I must admit that I blushed a bit when I saw them — thanks, fellas!)
 * Emily: 2% - Surprise formation, meager effects.
 * Franklin: 15% - That death toll (or lack thereof) is a very pleasant surprise. This gets as high as 15% from me because I don't buy the idea of a hurricane of any strength hitting Mexico without dealing some extent of damage.
 * Gert: 1% - For the rip current fatalities. Cool storm to watch, otherwise.
 * Harvey: 100% - There's no logical way it won't happen.
 * Irma: Still active, fingers crossed this ultimately steers clear of land...

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, September 2, 2017 (UTC)

Potentially for Don
Since Don has a fairly decent chance to go, I've set up some replacement names for him:


 * Dylan
 * Diego
 * Damien
 * Drake
 * Derek
 * Dale
 * Dexter
 * Drew
 * Darren
 * Daryl

Post below which two names you like. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 13:58, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * I personally don't find Don's removal likely just because he has the same name as the U.S. president, but if he is removed for that reason, I'd like him to be replaced with Dylan. :) Also, add Darren and Daryl to those list of names. Ryan1000 00:22, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Have to agree with you Ryan. If this were to replace with Dylan, he will probably freak out. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:32, August 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * I was going to make this comment earlier, but I will just post it here. Pardon my tone, but in my opinion, it is unlikely that Don will be retired simply because it happens to have a similar name as an incumbent U.S. president. Previous presidents and other prominent American political figures have had their names added on the Atlantic and Pacific naming lists without objection. For example, the name Georges was left on Atlantic List II despite President George H.W. Bush being head of state at the time and a presidential candidate for that year. Additionally, Bill, Madeline, Hilary, and Alberto were all used in a span of four years in lieu of potential connotations with notable Clinton administration figures (the Commander-in-Chief himself (whose birthday is today, August 19), Secretary Albright, the First Lady, and Vice President Gore, respectively). More recently, Ike and Laura were the chosen replacement names after the 2002 season, even though the former is a nickname for a former American president and the latter was the name of the wife of then president George W. Bush. Also, if we are going to remove Don, why not remove Michael, the (formal) name of our current vice president as well?
 * Nevertheless, here are five additional potential replacement names should Don be removed:


 * Dusty
 * Dominic
 * Draco (Any Harry Potter fans?)
 * Dante
 * Devan


 * Also, I would consider removing Drew from your replacement name list, as some may find that name too similar to Andrew. I hope this helps!

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:42, August 19, 2017 (UTC)

I find it only likely that Don would be removed along with the name of Hilary. I don't think they would remove one and not remove the other. Nonetheless, my three replacement name candidates would be Dylan, Drew, or Doug. Obviously, it would be cool to see Dylan's name get added to the naming list like my name got added onto the list last year to replace Otto, or Drew being added to the list for Andrew to have a name to associate with. Doug (third preference) is also an option. Yes, the name Douglas is on the EPAC list but that hasn't stopped them from using "Frank" and "Franklin, "Daniel" and "Danny" or even "Juliette" and "Julia". Also, the name "Frederic" had been retired and the name "Fred" had appeared on the naming list years later, so yeah, like Doug, it's a possibility and can't be ruled out. All three of those names are great options. Owen 07:42, August 20, 2017 (UTC)

For Harvey
Don has no chance of being retired this discussion is silly. Harvey hasn't made landfall yet but pretty sure he is going to be retired so lets make some H names. Thoughts? Any interesting ones I missed? --Whiplash (talk) 18:30, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Hannibal
 * Hans
 * Hadrian
 * Handel
 * Hank
 * Harper - Personally would rather see this used for a girls name although it can be used for either.
 * Harris/Harrison
 * Hayden
 * Heath
 * Heinrich
 * Helmut
 * Henrik
 * Herb/Herbert
 * Horacio
 * Howard/Howie
 * Huey
 * Hugh
 * Hunter - Hurricane hunters chasing Hurricane Hunter lol...
 * Hyacinth - My personal fave


 * Howard was used in the Eastern Pacific last year. :/ It'll be used again in 2022, so that's out. I'd also add Harold and Henry to those names as possible replacements (note: Henri from list 1 is pronounced "ahn-ree", not "Hen-ree" so they're not as confusing as they seem despite being one letter apart). Ryan1000 19:31, August 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd like to see the names Heath or Hugh, but those are too similar sounding to Keith and Hugo. My best pick would be Herman or Herbert. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 19:44, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * Herman might be confusing with Hernan, which was on the 2014 EPac list and is scheduled for 2020. Ryan1000 19:50, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My best picks will be Harry, Howie, Herbert, Hans, Hank or Hal. Harley will be okay, but it reminds me of Harley Quinn instead. Maybe even Hannibal, Hubert (kinda similar to Humberto though), Homer, Huey or Hayden. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:21, August 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * My top three picks are Hayden, Harris, and Hank. Hadrian is kinda similar to Adrian though (which is on our current list for the EPac). Never forget Andrew, 25 years (1992-2017)-68.106.0.77 02:43, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Two french names I didn't think about... Honore and Hilaire. Both of which are boys names. --Whiplash (talk) 14:39, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

I've always felt like Hank would be one of the first H names that the NHC would go with. It does seem like a name they'd choose. So, that's my pick. Leeboy100 Beware Harvey's fury, Andrew (25 years). 21:15, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would prefer a name that doesn't sound too/very old-fashioned. I'd prefer something more modern or timeless. I would not like that AT ALL. This naming list already sounds so old-fashioned and dated (is anyone even called "Gert" these days??) Anyway, here are my suggestions for possible "H" replacement names, since my instincs tell me Harvey is DEFO getting the boot:


 * Habib
 * Hackett
 * Haddon
 * Hadley
 * Hadrian
 * Hafiz
 * Hagan
 * Hakim
 * Hakan
 * Hal
 * Haines
 * Haile
 * Hagley
 * Hallam
 * Halstead
 * Hampton
 * Hardy
 * Hardik
 * Harald
 * Harley
 * Henrik
 * Helmut
 * Hendy
 * Henning
 * Henley
 * Hiroshi
 * Hilton
 * Homer (LOL)
 * Hopinks
 * Howie (oldish but okay I guess)
 * Hunter (HURRICANE HUNTER IS STRIKING FLORIDA can you imagine THAT being on the headlines? kek)
 * Hussain
 * Hyatt
 * Hymen
 * Hyde
 * Herrick
 * Huey
 * Hurst
 * Henrietto (LOL)
 * Henriettus (ANOTHER LOL)
 * Henriettito (HAHA KEK)
 * I must admit that H names for boys are quite old-fashioned with very little space for more modern names but I kept my list more "classic" I guess. HI IT&#39;S HENRIETTE AND I&#39;M AWESOME (talk) 22:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)

My top 3 name replacement candidates for Harvey would be Harry, Harold, and Hunter. I think Hunter would be the most likely name to be chosen. Owen 05:05, August 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * I don't think they would choose Hunter though. People might confuse it with hurricane hunters. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:12, August 26, 2017 (UTC)

If it's hans atlantic is frozen confirmed Hal is the best name for a Harvey replacement. Hurricane Hal, I love it <font face="Ubuntu" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Ubuntu">Talk  <font face="Ubuntu">Blog  02:03, August 31, 2017 (UTC)

Harrison is my pick. TekkenGuy12 (talk) 02:44, September 3, 2017 (UTC)

Going to go with Hans, Homer, or Hunter (which would be really funny). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:29, September 5, 2017 (UTC)

(Potentially) for Irma
We all know Harvey is going to be retired, but Irma is starting to look like a strong retirement candidate as well, assuming it manages to reach Florida as a formidable major hurricane, on top of potential devastation in the northeastern Caribbean islands. So, what are your thoughts on replacement names for Irma, assuming it causes enough impact down the road? Here's a few of my suggestions:

What are your thoughts? Ryan1000 07:54, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ian(n)a
 * Iara
 * Idette
 * Inga
 * Ilsa
 * Idina
 * Ivy
 * Idona
 * Idra
 * Isha
 * Ignacia
 * Ila
 * Isa
 * Iora


 * Irina, Ivy, Isa or Inga are my picks. Ilsa sounds like Elsa (which replaced Erika). Ignacia can also be used, though it is similar to Ignacio (which is being used in EPac). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:37, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * My pick to replace Irma will be Ivy. Owen 08:44, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Added Isa. Ignacia is close to Ignacio, though we saw Martin replace Matthew earlier this year while a variation of Martin (Marty) was in the EPac, so Ignacia and Ignacio being used simultaneously isn't comletely out of the question. Ryan1000 08:56, September 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Inga was used in 1961 and 1969, the latter of which was the third-longest lasting TC in the North Atlantic basin. My suggestions are Ilana and Iora, though my personal favourite is Ivy (even though it's already been used 11 times in the WPac and five more times in the SHem). ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:27, September 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Take note that Irma was also used in the WPac for a number of storms, including a C5 in 1971 and a strong C4 in 1981 that killed hundreds in the Philippines (it wasn't retired after that though). So if it seems that (as if) NHC got Irma from the WPac lists, then why not Ivy? However, Irma was used in 1978 in the Atlantic; following that pattern, Inga can be a possible candidate as replacement for Irma. Then again, NHC is somehow leaning towards names that are more current/timely (or even trendy), i.e. Elsa for Erika, Julian for Joaquin, Imelda for Ingrid, Sara for Sandy, Ian for Igor, Martin for Matthew, Owen for Otto, etc. Anyway, this is just in preparation for the impacts of Irma in the northern Lessers & the rest of the Antilles (and eventually U.S.), who knows, Irma might change her mind and turn away from land. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:16, September 5, 2017 (UTC)