Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why? rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)

IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Isis retired
Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.)  rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. Ryan1000 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS old/new storm #1
GFS and CMC have been insistent (both old and new versions of the GFS, it got upgraded today, the tested, old, and new (very high res and seems very ECMWF like)) on an EPAC TC forming around 20N from a cutoff low 36 hours from now. Unlike the Carribean phantom storms of last year, it's evolution is rapid and fairly brief. ECMWF also kinda shows it. With that said, they IMO are overdoing the convergence in the region. YE Pacific Hurricane  04:44, January 15, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:New GFS storm #1
0z GFS shows something by day 16. Something to watch, and IMO isn't too far fetched. Once the Pacific High gets here, the ITCZ positioning may not even matter. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:56, April 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * The GFS has sort of dropped this totally. But the same general ITCZ breakdown could still happen IMO in the next 2-3 weeks, and there are still hints in the ensembles and CFS. YE Pacific 

 

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Hurricane ]] 23:40, April 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * EPAC looks quiet for the time being. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:26, May 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * Season has officially begun, and the first TWO of the year has been released.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:38, May 15, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:8N130W
0/20. Don't think it'll do much though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:11, May 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/30. GFS merges it with the system below. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:16, May 21, 2015 (UTC)

90.E INVEST
40/70. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:14, May 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50/50. Looking good. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * 70/70, I think this or the below invest could become Andres. Ready to see Andres, everybody? This is going to be a wild and crazy season, I predict. But, both this and the below invest have only a limited opportunity for development, so if they do form, they could be a weak TS or even peak as a depression. It would be amazing though, if both this and the below invest became named! Such occurrence sounds a bit unlikely though, but I really do hope it happens, so we can see "Andres" and "Blanca" active at the same time and do a fantastic kickoff to the season! :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 22:00, May 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * 30/30. It's all this system's fault if and 91E's fault if we stop at York.

Aoi:8N12W
0/30. Currently an X. GFS brings this to near hurricane intensity. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:16, May 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:14, May 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * 60/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
50/50. On it's last legs. Thanks alot. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * 20/20. Best looking invest of all time seriously. Have no clue why it is a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:05, May 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * 10/10. Still out there lol. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:47, May 27, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS/ECMWF storm
Both the GFS and Euro are bullish on a Cat 1 hurricane moving north towards Socorro Island in the 10-12 day time frame. Really high on this, given the near certain agreement, though the NOGAPS/JMA are not on board quite yet. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:11, May 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/30. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/50. Andres, anyone? I think it might come out of this system, let's hope so!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:46, May 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/60. Latest GFS blows this into a 936mbar tropical cyclone. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:06, May 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * 10/70. This looks like a prime contender to be the first storm of the EPac season. It'll probably head out to sea like most storms at this time of year, but it could become a strong hurricane while doing so. Ryan1000 20:01, May 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * 18z GFS brings this to Baja. Decent chance it gives rain to the SW. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:45, May 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * GFS brings it close to Baja a long ways out, but not actually making landfall there. If this actually makes landfall on Baja at the time GFS suggests, it would be the earliest storm on record to do so. I wouldn't rule out some possible surf or rainfall on parts of southern mexico, but the center of this will probably remain offshore. Ryan1000 23:21, May 25, 2015 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested. 60/90. ECMWF keeps this out to see, while GFS brings it near Baja. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:46, May 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's at 80/90. Highly likely to become a depression tomorrow, and could easily become Andres after that. Ryan1000 23:24, May 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * 90/90. Almost classifiable. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
And the 2015 Pacific hurricane season has officially begun! Forecast to become Andres later today, and could even become a hurricane after that. Ryan1000 12:17, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Andres
Now at 35kt. First named storm of the season and forecast for a 80kt peak. Kiewii 17:09, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * "Forecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)".-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:25, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Pretty nice start to the season, and we could also get something from the AOI behind it, but it's proximity to Andres will likely hold it back. As a side note, NOAA mentioned that the active Atlantic hurricane era that begun in 1995 might be drawing to a close by now, given the likelihood of a strong, long-lasting El Nino this year and the other two quiet Atlantic years we've had lately. Ryan1000 18:39, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * The below AOI could develop later on. Anyhow Andres is bombing out. The adv raised its wind to 50 knots, and an eye is starting to form. Could become a hurricane tonight. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:54, May 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now up to 70 mph, Andres should become a hurricane at any point now. Forecast peak raised to a 100 mph cat 2. If it strengthens fasst enough, it might even briefly become a major hurricane. Ryan1000 13:17, May 29, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Andres
There you go. No longer forecast to be a cat 2, but at least it's another May hurricane. Ryan1000 22:25, May 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Four years in a row. Could be in store for another major if all goes well. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:40, May 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Not bad, now at 105/970. A minimal major hurricane might not be out of the question after all. But Andres doesn't have much time left, it better hurry up if it wants to briefly crack 115. Ryan1000 17:55, May 30, 2015 (UTC)

110/966. Andres is only a hair away from being the season's first major... Ryan1000 02:52, May 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * All data supported a major at 0z. This is a very tricky case. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:44, May 31, 2015 (UTC)

Andres is weakening now, it looks like it missed it's chance at becoming a major. From here on out, we'll be saying good-bye to him. Ryan1000 18:17, May 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * Not trying to sound rude, but it's anything but weakening if you look at latest pics. Might be a borderline T5.5 case, which could result in an upgraded into a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:22, May 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks nice, though Andres is slowly traversing over cooler waters and dry air. I wouldn't completely rule out a rebound in intensity for Andres, but it better hurry up before conditions aren't favorable for restrengthening. However, if there's anything recent years (except for 2013) have taught us, it's that EPac storms are typically trickier to forecast intensity-wise than Atlantic storms. Ryan1000 19:53, May 31, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Andres
It somehow did it.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:45, May 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looks like I did speak too soon, this thing looks really nice and it could hang on for a while longer than I thought. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * WOAH! 140 mph and 943 mbars as of the latest advisory! Andres just exploded in the past 12 hours, I did not expect this to happen. Andres is one of only 5 major hurricanes to be recorded during May, and it's the farthest west of the five, reaching the intensity at 118.8 W. I did not expect this quick of an intensification from this. Since it's well away from any land, let's hope it manages to crack in some more intensity before weakening later on. :) Ryan1000 04:27, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * 140 knts is not out of the question. The eye just needs to warm. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:54, June 1, 2015 (UTC)

Peaked at 150/938 earlier today, but now it's powering down for good, 140/943 as of the latest advisory, but with the demise of Andres comes the life of Blanca. Ryan1000 20:12, June 1, 2015 (UTC)

I'm impressed  leeboy100 My Talk! 20:53, June 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now down to cat 3, 125 mph, but it'll be sticking around for a 3-4 more days before dying out. Ryan1000 23:47, June 1, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Andres (2nd time)
Now down to cat 2, 105 mph/969 mbars. It'll be around for two more days or so before dying out. Ryan1000 12:33, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Down further to 80kt. Did look quite nice at its peak I must say! Kiewii 14:51, June 2, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS/ECMWF Mexico hurricane #2
12z GFS doesn't, but 6z and 0z GFS blew this up into a landfalling Mexico hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:18, May 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Gone from GFS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:35, May 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * ECMWF develops a storm near 92E in several days but I don't buy it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:46, May 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)

0/50. GFS makes this a 937 mbar hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:17, May 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * 20/80. Proximity to Andres is currently keeping this low in check, but once Andres moves out of the way in 3-4 days, this should become Blanca with no troube at all. Ryan1000 17:55, May 30, 2015 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invest'd. Ryan1000 02:52, May 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * 70/90, almost a depression.... Ryan1000 18:17, May 31, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
"Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to indicate the formation of Tropical Depression Two-E."-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:37, May 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * The track on this thing is really erratic, it shows 2-E performing a counter-clockwise loop while becoming a hurricane, then passing over its own wake and weakening, then becoming a hurricane again. I think it's second spell as a hurricane will be far more noteworthy, it could even become a major by that time like Andres just did. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Blanca
Now upgraded to TS, named Blanca. Wow what an early start, I must say. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:17, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres paving the way for Blanca.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  16:37, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * The track no longer shows a loop from this, but it's still likely to become another strong major hurricane once Andres is fully out of the way. Ryan1000 20:12, June 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hot tower...here we go...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  01:43, June 2, 2015 (UTC)

This thing looks really nice. Forecast intensity upped to cat 4 at least, and Blanca could also hit west-central Baja in the long run. If it does that, it would be the earliest hurricane on record to do so. Ryan1000 12:33, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * SHIPS rapid intensification index, as noted by Blake, have become maxed out for Blanca. I have no words for that.  Jake52 (talk) 13:53, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Up to 60kt, should be a hurricane shortly Kiewii 14:51, June 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * This thing looks downright amazing for a TS. Blanca already has a forecast peak at 140 mph, and it might even become a cat 5 if all goes well, which would put it on par with Ava of 1973 as the earliest in EPac history and only 3rd in June. This is unbelievable. On top of that, the track has shifted more towards southern Baja lately... Ryan1000 18:28, June 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Am I the only one who doesn't like the looks of this? I mean we may have a cat.5 in June (the third on record) which would be cool..........
 * However, consider the fact Baja was hit by Odile only 9 months ago and this could hit as a major hurricane.
 * Never mind, I misread the forecast, this is predicted to hit Baja only as a category 1, but still, I'm pretty sure there are areas still recovering form Odile.....  leeboy100 My Talk! 19:41, June 2, 2015 (UTC) (edited)

Aoi:NOGAPS/GDL storm
NOGAPS and GFDL, not the best of models, both show a tropical cyclone SW of 92E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, May 28, 2015 (UTC)