Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

November
Has come, but EPac and ATL have pretty much shut down by now. Ryan1000 10:55, November 1, 2011 (UTC)

I think one more storm is possible after all the models are hinting something Allanjeffs 23:14, November 12, 2011 (UTC)

Currently in the SW-Caribbean, should cross Panama. Major Hurricane Kiewii 16:56, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

GFS expects 2 storms to form in the Pacific. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  17:00, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

Development is very rare for the EPAC this late in the year. HurricaneOwen99 01:17, November 16, 2011 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
But not impossible now we have invest 90 could become Keneth and we could have lidia as gfs is predictiongAllanjeffs 22:15, November 16, 2011 (UTC)

I wouldn't be too surprised if we don't have development from 90E or any other storms from here on out. November for EPac is almost like December for the Atlantic. Storms rarely form here at this time of year, and Hurricane Sergio was the strongest November storm on record here. Even so, he was in an El Nino year and didn't become a major hurricane. The latest MH in EPac history was Xina of 1985, but it still never affected land. We may see development of this, but it's not very likely. Shear is really going to pick up in the next 3-4 days, so it better get on with it now if it ever will. Ryan1000 23:54, November 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20%. Yqt1001 13:15, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * SHIPS is thinking a 60 knot storm right now. Ryan1000 21:44, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30%. Yqt1001 23:56, November 17, 2011 (UTC)

40%. Yqt1001 06:14, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

We could be looking at yet another hurricane this weekend. God, EPac just doesn't know when to stop. I thought it would end with Irwin and Jova, but now we could be looking at the first hurricane to develop in November since 2006, and the first in a non-El Nino year since Octave in 2001. Ryan1000 07:38, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

And our 7th November 'cane on record. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 23:32, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

50% here comes keneth Allanjeffs 00:38, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

It is currently only forecast to become a C1, but HWRF does explode it into a category 4 storm in the next few days. At the rate we have seen explosions earlier this year(especially with Eugene; at first he was never forecast to exceed C1), I wouldn't be surprised if future Kenneth can do that briefly too. If it does explode to a C4, it would be the strongest November hurricane on record in EPac. Ryan1000 06:00, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

Update:Now 60%. Looks like Kenneth is coming after all. Ryan1000 06:18, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 70%. 01F.KIEWII 11:56, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

I'm expecting at most Tropical Storm Kenneth, but I won't be surprised if 90E can become the first major hurricane in November EPac or CPac history. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 13:40, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

I doubt major hurricane strength, but hurricane strength is not out of the question. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  16:42, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

And NOAA didn't make their forecast too accurate. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  16:44, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

They were so far off this year it's not even funny. This thing may become a hurricane, but it won't be running into shear or dry air until about Tuesday. It has a descent chance of developing into Kenneth later today and possibly a hurricane by Sunday or Monday. However, if it takes advantage of the low shear it's in right now, it has a chance to explode, as indicated by a few models. However, it's not a gurantee as of yet. A hurricane pretty much is though. Ryan1000 19:50, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
Due to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane on Tuesday. 01F.KIEWII 20:40, November 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay! Something to track! Yqt1001 20:51, November 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Finally something active in the world. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  21:00, November 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Currently this one is forecast to be a slow-going storm, but it looks pretty good on sattelite imagery. I think we could have another hurricane this weekend, but there still is a possibility it could become a strong hurricane as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 23:01, November 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * The NHC is forecasting it to become a tropical storm in 12 hours, then a hurricane in 4 days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 00:04, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you guys want to know how late in the year 13-E is, read this:
 * BASED ON HISTORICAL RECORDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS THE

LATEST-FORMING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IN 1987...WHICH FORMED ON NOVEMBER 24. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE IN 1983...WHICH FORMED ON DECEMBER 4.
 * Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 00:16, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not that unusual to see storms form in November in EPac, but it's still not the most active month and Kenneth would be the latest "K" storm in recorded history for EPac; the last time a K storm formed this late was Kiko in 2007. Ryan1000 14:14, November 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * supposedly is now TS Kenneth but wow only 11 name storms that is low and 2010 7 that is like a record for two straight years i know in hurricanes is above average but in name storms noAllanjeffs 20:05, November 20, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kenneth
It's here. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  20:22, November 20, 2011 (UTC)

Now official. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  20:52, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * What I don't understand is why the NHC is calling this an incredibly rare storm formation time, even though it's still technically the season...why not decrease the season by 15 days if storms rarely form in this half of November? Yqt1001 21:06, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Guess they want to keep EPac and ATL in the same boundaries, but yeah, technically EPac ends before ATL does. This storm should be a straightforward hurricane, but I don't know how strong of a hurricane we are looking at right now. Ryan1000 21:24, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Expected to become a hurricane in 72 hours. And Allan, 2010-2011 ties with 1995-1996 for the least active back-to-back years since 1971 (19 storms). Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:08, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 50 mph now. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:49, November 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * 65 mph with eye feature, expected to become a hurricane today. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  13:07, November 21, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Kenneth
Guys, Kenneth is bombing out. 80mph, 989mb. Expected to hit MH strength! Would be the latest EPac MH ever recorded..in a La Nina year, how odd. Yqt1001 14:54, November 21, 2011 (UTC)

And could also be the strongest November storm in the EPac. Kenneth is starting to act like Eugene. 01F.KIEWII 17:03, November 21, 2011 (UTC)

Kenneth is a very tightly wound hurricane right now, so it's going to be taking off in intensity real soon. If Kenneth becomes a category 4 hurricane, we would not only have the latest C4 ever and first November C4 ever, but we'd also beat 1990 at having the highest number of EPac C4's in a non El Nino year, with 5. What a season. This is just incredible. Ryan1000 18:12, November 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * While Kenneth is technically an 85mph storm, ATCF has come out with a 90kts Kenneth; the strongest storm recorded in the EPac this late in the year. His eye is fully clear and his structure looks amazing, all he needs is some more deep convection and he is set for MH status. Amazing. Yqt1001 00:51, November 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * he is supposedy now a cat 2 with 105moh you were right of this becoming a formidable hurricane Ryan and sorry for not connecting more but is because my Internet have been bad this week and previous this could easily become a 4 10/11 have become hurricane Amazing Allanjeffs 02:34, November 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * now officially a 2 with 105mph Allanjeffs 03:03, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Kenneth is very close to beating Sergio as the strongest November EPac hurricane (in terms of wind). Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 03:16, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * In terms of pressure, record holder is some 1925 storm. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:32, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Glad you're back, YE. Anyways, Kenneth looks way better on the sattelite imagery. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  03:34, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you're looking at the reliable best track record from 1949 until now(or 1971 if you like ACE), Hurricane Sergio of 2006 was the strongest November hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific, which peaked at 110 mph and 965 mbars. Kenneth is at 105/973 and counting. It could easily beat Sergio by tomorrow, and the fact this is not a strong el nino makes it that much more impressive. Throw in 94L's post-season upgrade in ATL and what's not to like in the tropics? Kenneth will probrably cap off the season for EPac as will 99L in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 03:48, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

Kenneth is atleast 110mph right now. He looks like he could be a mid-3 if it wasn't for the lack of outflow. STILL an absolutely amazing looking system. Yqt1001 03:55, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Kenneth
And Sergio's five year reign is over as of this update! Jake52 09:01, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

No way.. the latest MH in EPAC history? Now, I expect Kenneth to beome a C4. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 12:44, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

It is expeced to become a catagory 4. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  13:09, November 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Kenneth! Look at you! You're absolutely beautiful for a November EPac MH! Dvorak estimates are saying 145mph already, he still has 24 hours left until he can no longer strengthen. Let's see how far this incredibly amazing storm gets! Yqt1001 13:25, November 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * ATCF updated, now a Cat 4 storm, 145 mph. I just love Kenneth now. 01F.KIEWII 13:53, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Currently it's 125 mph, but it's a boss right now. I'd be surprised if we don't get a C4 real soon. It's already set tons of records and it's still taking off. It's not expected to die for several more days to come, so like Hilary, it could accure a very high ACE as well. Wow, what a season it's been. Ryan1000 14:22, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's confirmed. What were the chances we would see a 145 mph category 4 hurricane in NOVEMBER here. And in a non el nino year too. This is just absolutely incredible. What a season. Amazing. Looking on the sattelite imagery, I can clearly see Kenneth saying " f**k you, NOAA!" They screwed up in their EPac predictions this year more than they did in any other pre-seasonal prediction since 2005 shoved their predictions right up their a$$ when August was over. Ryan1000 15:12, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like (key is looks like) Kenneth has stalled out on intensifying, or is weakening. So it must be time to start saying goodbye to Kenneth... :( Overall, the 2011 PHS nearly pulled a 2008: One MH every month of the season, too bad Eugene formed in July :/ Yqt1001 20:10, November 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay! I was right. "...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KENNETH FINALLY STOPS STRENGTHENING... " Yqt1001 20:36, November 22, 2011 (UTC)

Back down to a 3. 01F.KIEWII 22:43, November 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Loss his eye now, might be a ERC or he's weakening already. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  00:36, November 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eugene technically formed in July, but it did become a major hurricane in August, so it could be said we did get a MH in every month of the season except the first, like 2008 did. Kenneth was quite a storm, but it could hold on to at least hurricane intensity for a few days until it weakens to a TS this Friday/Saturday, and dies out on Sunday or so. He's not completely done yet. ACEwise, we somehow got above-average activity, and NOAA only anticipated a 5% chance of that. What a fail on their part. It appears the Atlantic has wrapped up with the dissipation of 99L and EPac will close up when Kenneth dies out. Overall ACE will be about 120 or higher when Kenneth dies out. Ryan1000 00:51, November 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * probaby not a hurricane for a few days maybe tomorrow afternoon at most it looks like cat 2 or 1 on satellite right now wow it really will dissipite rapidly Allanjeffs 02:38, November 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nope..still a Cat. 4. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:42, November 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * It lost its eyelike structure, but it hasn't lost it's organization yet. Don't write Kenneth off yet. He could survive for many more days. EPac has really been incredible all this season. Ryan1000 03:42, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Kenneth (2nd time)
Back down to Cat 1. 01F.KIEWII 14:49, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It appears to have collapsed on itself, but it was still good enough to go down in history. This storm was very small, so the collapse wasn't that surprising really. I think Kenneth should also go down in the hall of fame of 2011(my no. 1 favorite). Ryan1000 15:17, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Well that took little time. Cyclone10 Contributions  16:06, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now a TS but I remember Keneth as an amazing storm and for details the name kenneth all have been powerful hurricanes i cannot see this name use for a weak a ts and like 2005 Jova peak as a cat 3 and kenneth as 4 Allanjeffs 22:28, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now a TS Allanjeffs 22:24, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kenneth (2nd time)
A re-Beatriz is not out of the question. Cyclone10 Contributions  22:27, November 23, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I'm surprised no one updated the active storms header since it was downgraded... I just did. Anyways, Kenneth was great to watch when it was a C4, but now I guess it's time to say goodbye to Kenneth, and this season. In terms of ACE, ATL and EPac were pretty much the same this year, and both seasons will likely be remembered for a long time to come. Ryan1000 02:19, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now 60 MPH. Cyclone10 Contributions  03:13, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I would say that of all the storms of the year, Kenneth was the most amazing one. Now, he's dying away. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 12:59, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now 45 MPH. Cyclone10 Contributions  22:27, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">45 mph, 1003 mb. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 02:58, November 25, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions?

Mine:


 * Adrian - 1% No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements.


 * Beatriz - 10% Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired.


 * Calvin - 1% Was indeed an interesting storm.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are mine:
 * Adrian - 2% I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat.
 * Beatriz - 7% Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her.
 * Calvin - 0% He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end.
 * Dora - 3% See Adrian's section.
 * Eugene - 1% See Dora's, Calvin's, and Adrian's sections.
 * Fernanda - 0% - History doesn't earn retirement.
 * Greg - 0% - No.
 * Hilary - 5% - See Adrian's, Dora's, and Eugene's section.
 * Irwin - 1% - Became a hurricane, lived through shear, that's it.
 * Jova - 14% - See Beatriz's section.
 * Kenneth - TBA - Still active.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jova - 14% - See Beatriz's section.
 * Kenneth - TBA - Still active.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine (Until Calvin) <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no.
 * Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired?
 * Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P


 * A bit early but here are mine:
 * Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said
 * Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, and Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore
 * Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it.
 * Dora; 0%: Didn't do much other than RI.
 * Eugene; 0%: ^ same as Dora.
 * Fernanda; 0%: Got into the CPac, but that isn't a retirement worthy feat.
 * Greg; 0%: ^ same as Calvin.
 * Hilary; 1%; Landslides in Mexico, but that is nothing compared to the damage from Beatriz and Jova.
 * Jova; 4%: Rather similar impacts to Beatriz.
 * Irwin; A Philippe-esque storm, but his intensity roller coaster wasn't as intense as Philippe and the origins are different. Still, 0% chance though. Yqt1001 00:03, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt1001 20:42, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine:
 * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact
 * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy
 * Calvin 0%

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

HurricaneOwen99 19:21, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian:0% Nothing done.
 * Beatriz: 5% Slightly affected Mexico, but sometimes EPAC retirements can be surprises.
 * Calvin: 0% Who was this?
 * Dora: 1% Fun to track, but that doesn't mean retirement.
 * Eugene: 1% Won't be retired.
 * Fernanda: 0% Hurricane streak ended here, but no retirement.
 * Greg: 0% See Calvin's section.
 * Hilary: 0% She was a powerful, long lasting hurricane. That's it.
 * Irwin: 0% Irwin was like an EPAC Philippe. Didn't affect land alot.
 * Jova: 5% See Beatriz's section.

--HurricaneMaker99 17:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian: 1% - Unless he pulls an Adolph, no.
 * Beatriz: 10% - Some impact in Mexico, but not terribly significant. That said, there is the possibility that she could pull an Alma.
 * Calvin: 0% - Became a hurricane... and did absolutely nothing else.
 * Dora: 1% - Was fun as hell to track, but as Jake said about Danielle last year, beauty doesn't earn retirement.
 * Eugene: 1% - See Adrian and Dora's sections.
 * Fernanda: 0% - And so passes the first epic fail of the year (well, for the EPAC anyway).
 * Greg: 0% - See Calvin's section.

Here are my(official)EPac percentages as of now. Ryan1000 22:30, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 1% - Just because he was so freakin' awesome.
 * Beatriz - 5% - Some deaths, some damage, but enough for retirement? Probrably not.
 * Calvin - 0% - There are two reasons why this thing shouldn't be retired:Number 1, and of course number 2!(end sarcasm)
 * Dora - 0% - Didn't pull off what Adrian did, so no credit for her.
 * Eugene - 1% - See Adrian.
 * Fernanda - 0% - Finally the hurricane streak ends, and it didn't do anything but spin fish.
 * Greg - 0% - See Calvin.
 * Hilary - 0% - It was strong and long-lasting, but that doesn't earn retirement.
 * Irwin - 0% - It was long-lasting and persistent, but never affected land.
 * Jova - 35% - Damages upped to over 200 million, so we could have an outside chance of losing Jova next spring.
 * Kenneth - 0% - It came as a surprise so late in the season, but if it didn't affect land, it still can't be retired.

Here's mine:


 * Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, and Kenneth - 0% - they're all fishspinners.
 * Beatriz - 5% - At least it had fatalities and affected land.
 * Jova - 30% - $200 million is a lot.

Cyclone10 Contributions  21:41, November 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Adrian,Calvin,Dora,Eugene,Fernanda,Greg all 0% because they didn´t do anything

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Beatriz 5% Arlene hurt more than this and she ws even helpful to a drought that was in that part of Mexico

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hillary 5% some flood but that part have seen a lot worse

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Irwin ?

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Jova?

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Allanjeffs 15:14, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">So, here's my summary of what and what's not going:

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Staying (<4%): Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Irwin

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Possibly not (5-10%): Beatriz, Hilary 

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Possibly so (11-80%): Jova 

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Gone (>80%): No retirees 

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:06, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Does anyone have speculations on post-season changes? Adrian and Beatriz are done. I think Dora could have briefly been a C5 storm. Ryan1000 20:51, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

Nope.10'Q.'INVEST 22:13, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

TD 8 is done, no changes.10'Q.'INVEST 02:25, November 2, 2011 (UTC)

Can I see a link to where I can see all post-season chages in both the atlantic and pacific. HurricaneOwen99 01:34, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

The Atlantic and the Pacific 10'Q.'INVEST 12:10, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

Dora's peak intensity from the TCR is 929 mb, 135 kts. Hurricane Kiewii 23:37, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

Calvin's finished. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  22:03, November 15, 2011 (UTC)