Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.  ~ Roy25     Happy Thanksgiving Day!!!  |  🦃     23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. -  PORY GONAL  13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  04:06, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019
Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Eastern Caribbean Sea
An AOI appears in the Caribbean Sea, at 10/20 as it moves northwestward toward the island of Hispaniola.  Sandy 156   :)  17:52, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Now invested as 95L according to Tropical Tibits.  Sandy 156   :)  18:28, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Land interaction is inhibiting it and environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly conducive until it reaches the Florida Straits, so we shouldn't see much from this in the short term. However this could be one to watch in the very long run. Chantal might come in early August (or even by the end of July if we're lucky) from this. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:08, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances decreased to 0/10, but can still form into next week or so, if possible.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 30, 2019 (UTC)

No longer in Tropical Tidbits' invests section, but still 0/10 on NHC's TWO, Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:11, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Finally off the TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:10, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Africa
Although it's not on the TWO yet, Dr. Masters made a blog post discussing the probability for the development of an AOI that just moved off the coast of Africa and Cape Verde, and this signifies Cape Verde season is about to head up. Keep your eyes out...this might become something down the road. Ryan1000 01:51, July 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO with 0/20.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now increased to near 0/40.  Sandy 156   :)  00:15, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * This system is getting a bit concerning. This could be one to watch in the long run if it doesn't fall victim to any shear around the Eastern Caribbean. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:18, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/60 now. It seems that the Atlantic is waking up too. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:09, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

The new GFS takes this to Newfoundland as a hurricane eventually, but the Euro doesn't develop this too much. Still a long ways to go before we can tell if anything big will happen with this. Ryan1000 21:23, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 0/70, this might have a chance of becoming Chantal soon.  Sandy 156   :)  02:38, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

It'll probably become Chantal...also, I included 95L in August in case it develops in the month, but otherwise, archived the rest of the stuff above it. Ryan1000 03:02, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
10/70. This is a system to watch out for. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:24, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 20/70.  Sandy 156   :)  16:48, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

NHC says conditions will become unfavorable after it passes the upper Antilles, so this might only become a short-lived Chantal if it becomes a named storm. Ryan1000 18:50, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:10, August 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * 20/40, this is unlikely to form now.  Sandy 156   :)  17:56, August 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Further down to 20/30. Seems that all NHem basins are sub-par this year. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:36, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

It's still early August though, we have a lot of hurricane season left. Last year didn't have Florence until September, a month from now, 2017 didn't have Harvey until two weeks from now, and 2016 didn't get Matthew until October. Though it doesn't seem that this year will be as active right now, people shouldn't let their guard down. Ryan1000 14:34, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Will we get a hurricane like these picture perfect types  this year? I really hope so. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 14:53, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Keep things on topic please. Anyways, this won't become much of anything at this point, chances down to 20/20 and unfavorable conditions will set in soon. Ryan1000 22:10, August 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * 10/10, will likely dissipate soon. Ryan1000 15:40, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

And now near 0%. See ya. Ryan1000 20:23, August 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Sadly this failed to develop. Chantal's taking a while to show up! Maybe by the middle of the month we'll finally see her. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  14:54, August 5, 2019 (UTC)

Inactivity Break
an active af season expected from the noaa as a spanking new prediction report came out today. 10-17 lil' minions gonna be unleashed in your back garden. am thinking the most intense storms would be from the letters f-h this season. a category 4 fish storm is likely, imo. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 18:35, August 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic is really sleeping right now. At this rate, it might not be until almost the end of the month that Chantal finally comes. I just don't see this season being that active anymore, it would take a miracle late August/September explosion to see a very active season this year. We will probably only end at the I-L names this year to be honest. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * the charts say that the mjo phase will become more favorable, a cckw will push in, giving an abrupt sharp spike in activity. it's the dry sinking air promoted by a bad mjo phase. the season will likely end at about l-n. MargeSimpson420 (talk) 19:43, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Dr. Master's latest blog post says that there's a lot of dry air from the SAL over much of the tropical Atlantic, which is why the Atlantic is quiet for now, but a CCKW and the MJO will probably come into the basin by late August or September, and by then the basin will probably kick up a bit. Also, there's a possibility that a stalled frontal boundary could spawn a storm in the northern gulf next week, similar to how Barry formed. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that this season could spike in activity later on, or produce a notable storm or two. Ryan1000 12:18, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Alright, I now think Chantal is possible in the next couple weeks, although it will probably come after my birthday from either the frontal boundary or a tropical wave once the CCKW and MJO moves in. If nothing forms by August 24, this year will have the latest "C" named storm since 1992, surpassing 2014. However I think Chantal this year will come at a similar time as Cristobal in 2014. Correcting my previous comment, if we get an explosion late this month into September, reaching the L-N names is a distinct possibility, although I think we will end around Karen. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:21, August 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Aw, man. Rebekah will have to wait ANOTHER six years. :( Beatissima (talk) 01:54, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

We might not get all the way to Rebekah this year, but we still have quite a bit of time left in the season, and if we get a sizeable pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation later in the month or September as Dr. Masters suggested, we could be in for something later on. Ryan1000 04:34, August 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Florida
Finally, the ATL has got an area of interest now over Florida moving towards the northeast. It's at 10/20 rn.  Sandy 156   :)  00:17, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * The wait has been killing us. Only 10/20 might not seem so convincing for development. But please become Chantal 🤗 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:22, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, at this rate we could have the latest "C" named storm since 1992... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
It has been invested, hopefully we see something! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:56, August 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/30, maybe there is a good chance of Chantal. It's got until Tuesday to develop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:31, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back down to 20/20... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:06, August 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * And down to 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 00:35, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Could we PLEASE get Chantal already? The chances for this one are diminishing and it'll have to pull a surprise tomorrow to become a TD or named TS. At this rate we could see a stormless August for the first time since 1997... The basin seems really hopeless for development in the near future. What a bust the Atlantic is this year... Might become the worst year I've ever tracked, and that would be saying something. Even 2013 was ahead in named storms at this point, and it looks likely 2019 will surpass 2014 for the latest "C" named storm of the century. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:34, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * I guess it's merciful that Hurricane Alley is getting a little break from overactive storm seasons. Even if it's only for a half-season and things pick up again next month. Beatissima (talk) 01:10, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Spiked up to 40/40. Beatissima (talk) 23:56, August 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, this could actually become Chantal... ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  01:53, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chances raised to 100, finally Chantal's coming after more than a month long wait.  Sandy 156   :)  02:11, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chantal
Wtf, this caught me by surprise! We got Chantal, NHC's initiating advisories now. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  02:35, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well, it's safe to say that Chantal surprised you on your birthday. The Atlantic finally came back to life. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:59, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Chantal's a nice birthday present for sure. ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  03:17, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * WHAAAAAAAAAT???? I had fully written this thing off as a bust, and all of a sudden it turns into Chantal? Kind of feels like Emily from two years ago. Oh and happy birthday Steve! Send Help Please  (talk) 03:33, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Same, this is such a shocking surprise! :O And thanks! ~  Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  03:40, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Apparently this is also the second-latest date for the third named storm of the season of the 21st century thus far, behind Cristobal of 2014 which formed on August 23, and this Chantal formed only 6 days later than the 2001 Chantal. It probably won't do much over the north Atlantic, but I will say, I did not expect this to form. Ryan1000 03:55, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * I hadn’t even checked the NHC site in a couple of days because I thought everything was just dead, and now, boom. Chantal coming out of nowhere. Leeboy100 Hello! 06:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * Wow, this thing I never thought would form in the beginning became a named storm before that invest in the EPAC did! I expect this to be weak, though (watch this thing become a hurricane, okay I'm joking). TheChosenWizard \I like weather/ \Contributions/ My name retirement chances out now! 12:16, August 21, 2019 (UTC)


 * This is probably never going to surpass 45 or even 40 mph. While I'm glad to see a named storm this month, it's unfortunately on the failure TS side. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:02, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Chantal
Never made it past 40 mph.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  08:06, August 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on its last legs. Chantal is seriously playing with our emotions. First it rapidly organized to become Chantal, making us excited that there's finally a named storm in the Atlantic, and then she had to peak at the bare minimum and weaken afterwards, trolling us all. Chantfail didn't even try. >:( I know conditions for Chantal weren't particularly conducive but hopefully Dorian is something better. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:17, August 22, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Bahamas
On the outlook at 0/20. Can this become Dorian? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:02, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/30, I think this'll become Dorian. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:18, August 22, 2019 (UTC)

Post-season Changes
First TCR of the season is up, for Andrea. Lasted for 18 hours before dissipating.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:57, August 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Added the table for reference. Doesn't appear like there were any notable changes to Andrea, besides the advisory times (advisories were operationally issued at 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC, but NHC just put it to 1800 UTC on the 20th, or 2 PM EDT) for convenience. Ryan1000 20:47, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Three is also out too, since NHC doesn't have as much work this month.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:18, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

Pressure got nerfed by 1 mbar. Ryan1000 20:31, August 21, 2019 (UTC)