Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

November
It's November, and the EPAC is somewhat active for this time of the year, with Vance and 94E. However, I still think we can scoot in another named storm and hurricane from Vance, giving us a total of 23 tropical storms, 16 hurricanes, and 9 major hurricanes. Also, our ACE total at the moment, ~190 units, is the highest in the EPAC since 1993 and eighth highest overall. More information can be found in the October EPAC summary. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:26, November 1, 2014 (UTC)

AOI: Southeast of Vance
Near 0/Near 0. Pfft, this won't become anything! All that's going to happen to it is it's just going to be demolished by strong upper-level winds possibly caused by Vance just northeast of it. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 02:47, November 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Up to 10/20 on the NHC site, and the GFS (in five days) turns a system that starts in this location into what assumedly is a tropical depression (but the longer-range one doesn't do much strengthening with it). Trackwise, the same also shows this storm just sort of...meandering in the ocean, not doing much.  Jake52 (talk) 02:35, November 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Actually, this AOI dropped off the TWO just soon after I posted that, and the new AOI you describe is actually something new. I found this out with the NHC Graphical Outlook Archive at this link. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 04:50, November 6, 2014 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Per Jake's post above. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 04:50, November 6, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:33, September 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iselle - 60% - If they tried to retire Daniel, they would try to do this too.
 * Odile - 70% - Significant damage in Baja California, mostly due to rushed preparations.
 * Everything else - 0% - Meh.

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * 4) Douglas 0% Was okay.
 * 5) Elida 0% Fail
 * 6) Fausto 0% an epic epic epic fail.
 * 7) Wali 0% See Elida
 * 8) Geneive 1% just an epic long track, but it aint going anywhere
 * 9) Hernan 0% fish system
 * 10) Iselle 35% Very tricky. Hawaii is super lenient, but they'll never had a middle of the ground storm like this. They'll request probs though.
 * 11) Julio 1% For passing north of Hawaii
 * 12) Karina 0% fish system, but one hec of a storm to track
 * 13) Lowell 0% Cute structure
 * 14) Marie 10% $14 mil in damage 3 deaths, but not likely. Very fun to track though.
 * 15) Norbert 15% Severe ($100 m) damage in both Baja and Arizona, but I can't see this going
 * 16) Odile 60% This totally deserves to go. Cat 3 into Baja, c'mon. Nearly 1 billion in damage and 15-16 deaths. But MX has a poor track record.
 * 17) Polo 2% 1 dead and 7.5 mil in damage aint gonna cut it
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 17:37, November 2, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.
 * Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired.
 * Elida: 1% - It actually did cause some slight impacts, but it's certainly not going and will be back in 2020.
 * Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said
 * Wali: -∞% - See Fausto
 * Genevieve - 0.1% - Very freakin awesome, especially because it was a weak TS for a couple weeks before exploding into a Category 5!!! Wow! It didn't affect land though but it gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness.
 * Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen.
 * Iselle: 60% - Hawaii's third costliest storm and strongest Big Island landfall ever. It was also a fun-to-track Category 4. Due to these Hawaiian impacts and their retirement standards, it has a good shot at going.
 * Julio: 0% - Fun to track and pulled a surprising stunt on us near the end by re-strengthening to a hurricane in high latitudes, but since it didn't affect land Julio will come back in 2020.
 * Karina: 0% - Just a typical minimal hurricane without affecting land. Pulled a Douglas/Julio out of the hat and lasted longer than expected.
 * Lowell: 0% - Didn't affect land
 * Marie: 0% - Awesome Cat. 5 but not going due to lack of land effects.
 * Norbert: 15% - Flooding in Arizona and effects in Baja, but I'm still a bit positive that it won't be retired. This is no laughing matter though.
 * Odile: 70% - Strongest Baja landfall ever, and very destructive for the region. It has a fairly decent shot at being retired.
 * Polo: 1% - A death and some slight damage, but I really don't think it would be retired.
 * Rachel: 0% - She didn't cause affects on land so it's safe to say she won't be retired and will be back for 2020.
 * Simon: 0% - Awesome for RI-ing to C4 strength, but since it didn't affect land, Simon says it will return in 2020.
 * Ana: 1% - Even though it's longevity was incredible, it didn't cause much impacts and a retirement is completely not happening. Still, tack a 1% just in case.
 * Trudy: 5% - Only slight damages, just a typical TS for Mexico.
 * Vance: 0% (for now) - Still active but could cause some slight effects for Baja by late this week. But since these impacts are likely to not be that worrying, I'm putting it at 0% unless the impacts get more severe than I expect.


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Leeboy's epic prediction for hurricane retirement (EPAC)


 * Amanda: 1%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land. (Updated to 1% due to the deaths in Mexico)
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- 1% damage wasn't too bad
 * Douglas- 0% no
 * Elida-0% NO
 * Fausto-0% NO
 * Wali-0% I didn't even know this storm existed.
 * Genevieve- 0% Just like Amanda. Impressive storm that didn't affect land.
 * Hernan-0% it became a hurricane. That's about it
 * Iselle-55%- Due to its effects on Hawaii ( $53 million  now up to $66 million and fortunately only 1 death) it has a good chance at retirement. Although the WMO is strange at retiring EPAC names. However, it's safe to say Hawaii will probably request retirement.
 * Julio-0% an interesting storm to track that almost hit Hawaii.
 * Karina-0% The only reason I can think of that could get this name retired is sounding too much like "Katrina" but no.
 * Lowell-0% See Hernan
 * Marie-0% an amazing cat. 5. Like her sisters Amanda and Genevieve it didn't affect land though
 * Norbert    30%  caused 5 deaths and flooding, and it could be upgraded if there is more confirmed damage and deaths   still only 5 confirmed deaths but damage is $100 million, there have  been past storms that have caused bigger losses have NOT been retired (Jimena in 2009 comes to mind) so this may or may not be retired.
 * Odile- 75% as Ryan said in his retirement post before he updated it, Odile "kicked the shit out of baja" so far Odile has caused (as of September 20, 2014) the deaths of 5 people and 4 people to go missing. Damage is actually unknown but the article from wikipedia says damage may exceed $906.4 million!!!  and that doesn't include the damge in Arizona from the remnants. Despite all the snubbing of other storms in the EPAC, this will be retired,and if it isn't then the WMO has some kind of mental condition. And who can forget this picture: icyclone Odile damage
 * Polo-1% caused one death in Mexico
 * Rachel-0% Nothing to really say here, it wasn't a fail but didn't affect land
 * Simon-0% an amazing (male..finally) hurricane but it didn't affect land either

leeboy100 My Talk! 21:40, October 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

Time for my thoughts:

East Pacific:


 * Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic.
 * Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said.
 * Douglas - 0% - ^^
 * Elida - 1% - Actually it did cause some minor damage here and there, so it's not a 0%.
 * Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more?
 * Genevieve - 0% - My god, what a storm! Who could've guessed that Genevieve would go from being a weakling TS that died twice in the CPac to becoming a category 5 super typhoon and the most powerful storm worldwide in 2014. It showed all of us what happens when you keep trying and don't give up. :) All while it was far out to sea, with no damage or casualties reported.
 * Hernan - 0% - Well hey, at least we finally got another hurricane...
 * Iselle - 50% - Eh, sue me. I really don't know what to think of Iselle's chances for retirement. While Iselle killed a person and caused 66 million in damage (making it Hawaii's 3rd costliest storm after Iwa and Iniki), those numbers don't appear to be too high on paper and the post-storm media hype with this one didn't last as long as it did with past U.S. landfalling storms. I'd say it's a toss-up -- It could very well be retired for its unique nature and so-called "unprecedented" impacts on the Big Island, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if it's not retired since the damage and death toll weren't too extreme. We'll see what the WMO says.
 * Julio - 0% - Total fishspinner, but I'm surprised it went up to a hurricane again in the far north Central Pacific.
 * Karina - 0% - Another hurricane, but well away from any land.
 * Lowell - 0% - The remnants did bring some rain to southern California, but no damages or deaths were reported. In fact, it was probably beneficial to them since they've been in a severe drought for most of this year.
 * Marie - 6% - 6th strongest EPac storm on record, and strongest August storm ever (second if you count Ioke '06), but unfortunately Marie killed 3 people and caused 14 million in damage due to her large offshore swells. Not something to write off as a total fishspinner, but it's not enough for retirement either.
 * Norbert - 23% - Caused extreme flooding over parts of Arizona (100 million, to be precise) and other areas of the southwestern U.S. Five deaths on top of that give Norbert an outside shot, but as past storms like Paul '82 and Octave '83 showed, the impacts caused by the precursor/remnants of a storm don't usually count for retirement, unfortunately. Still upping the percent a bit since the numbers do merit mentioning.
 * Odile - 88% - Aon Benfield's disaster report for September 2014 came out recently (also visible on Dr. Master's lastest blog post), and Odile now ranks as the 12th costliest disaster worldwide in 2014, with anywhere from 2 to 4 billion dollars in damage, as well as 5 deaths. This makes it one of the costliest hurricanes in Mexico's history, and the worst hurricane to hit Cabo San Lucas. Odile will most likely be retired now.
 * Polo - 1% - The outer rainbands did cause flooding in southern Mexico which led to 7.5 million dollars in damage and 1 death, so, like Elida, it isn't a complete fail, but it's still not going to be retired.
 * Rachel - 0% - Yet another hurricane, but was well away from land.
 * Simon - 2% - Minor damage at most, and no deaths reported.
 * Trudy - 5% - Minor impacts overall, nothing unusual for Mexico.

Central Pacific:

And there you have it. Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Ana - 3% - Minor impacts at most.
 * Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Alright, here are mine as of June 30:
 * Amanda — <1% Nope.
 * Boris — ≤1% Nope.
 * Cristina — <1% Nope.
 * Douglas — <1% Nope.
 * Elida — ≤1% Probably nope.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel.
 * 2) Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub.
 * 3) Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe.
 * 4) Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay.
 * 5) Elida - 0.5% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she only caused little damage to resorts along Mexico's coast.
 * 6) Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway.
 * 7) Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto.
 * 8) Genevieve - 0% - I am very impressed by the show Genevieve gave us. I remember when we were first calling the storm a pathetic fail (not me, at least!) and just saying it sucked when she poofed away. Then Genny tried hard to prove us wrong and she only got so far again. So she passed away again, but her spirit still stayed with her, and she refused to give up hope. Finally, she did what every EPAC system dreams of doing - live in all three basins and become a modest Category 5 hurricane. It was worth the struggle. Genny accomplished her dream, and even better, harmed no one. While we know she isn't going, she was a very impressive system for her age and day.
 * 9) Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years.
 * 10) Iselle - 60% - Well, Miss Iselle is going to be a tricky one. She started off real excited and attained C4 intensity in a region that normally could only handle a C2. Then she did the annular trick and went straight to Hawaii's doorstep as a moderate TS. Her landfall on the Big Island is the strongest one to ever occur. And that obviously didn't go without impact. Damaging surf and strong winds around Hilo downed a number of trees and unroofed some houses. Over 20,000 are without power due to all the power lines Iselle downed. Of strong note is what happened in Puna; the power failure in a geothermal plant has released toxic hydrogen sulfide gases into the air, which could suffocate dozens. Currently, one fatality has been reported from the hurricane, and damage reports are at $53 million (2014 USD). Call me overcasting, but Hawaii requested Flossie '07 and Daniel '06 for retirement, both of which caused effectively nothing. Iselle, however, has left a huge mark for Hawaii, and it's likely going based on their retirement standards.
 * 11) Julio - 0% - Julio was a very impressive major hurricane and shocked me with his little re-intensification stunt. However, no land impacts, so no retirement for him.
 * 12) Karina - 0% - Karina fought long and strong for two weeks against everything that could have killed her. But no impacts, so she's not moving a muscle.
 * 13) Lowell - 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly, but caused nothing.
 * 14) Marie - 5% - Actually, Marie was a little more impacting than some of you think. The Mexican state of Oaxaca declared a disaster due to all the flooding and landslides, and two people were swept out to sea. Santa Catalina Island reported huge boulders tossed onshore and docked boats were ripped off their stands, which caused $10+ million (2014 USD) in losses. There was also a fatality in Malibu from someone hit by a rock. Marie was surely impressive as a Category 5, but it didn't leave nothing behind.
 * 15) Norbert - 30% - Well, the Ridgeback sure caused something. A dam failure occurred northwest of Puerto San Carlos, and three people were swept away from floodwaters across northern Mexico. In California, damage was also notable, with many flooded freeways and stranded vehicles. But the worst happened in Arizona. Sky Harbor Airport in Pheonix recorded in seven hours an entire summer's worth of rainfall. Also, southern areas of the city suffered many closed streets and thousands of customers were powerless in Pheonix and Mesa. As a matter of fact, water levels were so high in Tucson that pumping stations couldn't handle the stress. Flooding was described as the worst in Arizona since 1970, and similarly, rainfall in Nevada caused the worst problems for Moapa Valley in over a century. Five fatalities and all that impact makes Norbert a great candidate for retirement, but if Kathleen in 1976 or Nora in 1997 stayed, well, who knows.
 * 16) Odile - 75% - For a storm that was supposed to turn away from land, what in the name of Neptune happened?! Over 90% of Baja California was without power, and thousands of tourists were stranded, not to mention the felled trees and power lines. Even Manuel and Olivia (1967) pale in comparison to some of the damage pictures I saw from Odile in Mexico. Additionally, New Mexico and Texas were swamped by this swan. Although 15 deaths is quite impressive for a storm of this magnitude, $906.4 million in losses (2014 USD) makes Odile among Mexico's costliest hurricanes, and she deserves to go.
 * 17) Polo - 1% - Polo damaged dozens of restaurants, killed a tourist, and caused $7.5 million (2014 USD) in losses, but that's all I can say about him.
 * 18) Rachel - 0% - Congrats for your hurricane debut, but you're going nowhere.
 * 19) Simon - 0.1% - Thanks for becoming an overall harmless Category 4, but the "unknown" damage totals mean you are staying put as well.
 * 20) Ana - 1% - Ana did bring tons of rainfall to Hawaii and spill some oil in Honolulu Harbor. Hawaii may ask this for retirement given some of the effects, but with no damages or deaths, the WMO should say no.
 * 21) Trudy - 3% - Landslides and flooding evacuated thousands in Guerrero and killed eight. However, Mexico has evicted much worse, and I doubt she will be remembered.
 * 22) Vance - TBA - Still Active

We have enough storms for me:
 * Eastern Pacific
 * Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise.
 * Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is.
 * Douglas: 0% -
 * Elida: 0% 1% -
 * Actually, there was some impact after all, but it was only minor.


 * Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm*
 * Genevieve: 0% - Epic win for the intensity it reached after struggling for nearly two weeks, but it steered clear of land areas.
 * Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally.
 * Iselle: 51% - With Daniel '06 and Flossie '07, Hawaii proved itself willing to request the retirement of anything that dares to breathe on them. Since Iselle actually hit them - and made its mark, too - then if Hawaii submits Iselle for consideration, the WMO may be more likely to oblige this time around.
 * Julio: 0% - Kudos for becoming a major hurricane and surviving relatively far north for a Pacific hurricane, but like I said about Cristina, a fish is a fish is a fish.
 * Karina: 0% - Fishspinner, but it was also the EPAC's longest-lasting storm in a while. Two weeks is difficult to pull off in this part of the world, and for that, Karina deserves kudos.
 * Lowell: 0% - Became a hurricane when it was thought that its large size would preclude it from doing so, but other than that, not much to see here. I haven't heard of any adverse affects from Lowell's supposed moisture enhancement in the southeastern United States.
 * Marie: 4% - It's a pity that this storm couldn't go entirely without impact, but it was still amazing to watch.
 * Norbert: 20% - Caused terrible flooding in the southwestern United States, but historically speaking (Kathleen '76, Octave '83, etc.), that has not been enough for retirement. We'll see, though.
 * Odile: 55% 70% - This is a preliminary estimate that could go up or down depending on whether or not the damage at the Holiday Inn where the iCyclone team is staying is commonplace, but one thing's for sure: unless we get something even worse later on, this is most likely the storm of this year's EPAC season. And Odile is still a strong hurricane trekking up Baja as I type this. Who knows how bad the damage and death toll could be when it's all said and done.
 * The damage is commonplace. That 70% assumes a low death toll from this thing. If Odile killed as many people as I'm afraid it did, it's an 85%.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Polo: 2% - Minor.
 * Rachel: 0% - Fishspinner, but hey, it became the first Hurricane Rachel ever!
 * Simon: <1% - Impressive intensity, negligible (if any) impact.
 * Trudy: 3% - Even Boris was worse.
 * Central Pacific
 * Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often.
 * Ana: Currently active, though I do give it credit for becoming a hurricane after failing to do so for many, many years in the Atlantic.

Here's mine: - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it.
 * Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough.
 * Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed.
 * Elida: 0% - She didn't even try.
 * ??? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * My predictions for this season.


 * Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement.
 * Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying.
 * Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show.
 * Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed.
 * Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm.
 * Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam.
 * Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening.
 * Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying.

Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her.
 * Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one.
 * Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land.
 * Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast.
 * Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail.
 * Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all
 * Genevieve: 0% She make a feat of living in the three basins and becoming a ts in the first a cat 4 in the second and a cat 5 in the last but she is staying as she didn't affect land
 * Hernan: 0% Just because he was a hurricane doesn't mean he is a candidate for retirement. He did nothing at all.
 * Iselle: 40% not bad but the 2nd most damaging stom until now.
 * Julio:  0% not much can we say
 * Karina:0% Logetivity does not mean retirement
 * Lowell:0 nop you are staying
 * Marie:1% 3 deaths is nothing to joke but she is staying
 * Norbert 5% Flooding was an issue but Baja just saw worse with Odile and USA have seen worse too.
 * Odile: 75% Baja California suffer from this a lot I just saw pics and videos the airport was really damaged and there appears extensive damage. Knowing Mexico it might ask for retirement but it could still not ask they did snoob Karl but seeing how paicific landfalls are rarer it might be the catalyst for Mexico to ask for her.
 * Polo 1% Kill one but to be honest couldn't even remember his track.
 * Rachel 0% She is staying, no impacts at all
 * Simon 0% Amazing cat 4 but he is not leaving either
 * Trudy 5% Kill 8 but as previously state Mexico have seen much worse, ex Odile but she was awesome as her remnants give life To ts Hanna in the Atlantic.
 * Vance????
 * Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee.
 * Ana 0% Could have seen much worse if she had make landfall in Hawaii like models were predicting but she did a feat becoming the 4th or 3rd storm to live so far north.
 * Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Amanda = 5% Too cool for retirement.
 * Boris = 1% Even Boris Johnson thought this storm was nothing special.
 * Cristina = 5% She is beautiful, no matter what you say, but she aint movin.
 * Douglas = -3% Even all the residents of the Isle of Man say no.
 * Elida = -10% Move over, Doolittle!
 * Fausto = -821973892638742748% -grabs vomit bucket-
 * Genevieve = 10% Super ADHD storm for the win! :D
 * Hernan = -29%, make that HeMan and I'll just simply say HEYYEYAAEYAAAEYAEYAA
 * Iselle = 60% Well well well.... Guy Hagi was surely not lying this time, and neither was the optitian selling fake eyes. Ok, just joking. She surely had more inches rain than Guy Hagi, and turned Hawaii into a wet cloth. I just don't know what to say.... if Hawaii attempted to retire Danny and Flossie (wut? seriously dentists? Fergie?) then they might as well try to retire Iselle.... I really love the name Iselle. I'd personally be sad to see this name go because I think it is one of the prettiest names for a hurricane.... ever.
 * Julio = 25% Well, Jules, you can go home, you're drunk. Following Iselle around like that?
 * KaTrina = 1% Nadine of the Pacific. Lol.
 * Lowell = 0% LOLwellWUTcanIsay.
 * Marie = 5% HAHAHA 5% FOR THE CATEGORY 5 LOL. Oooh, wait, is she the cover girl of Marie Claire??
 * Norbert = 30% = Naughty ridgeback. Go back to Norway.
 * Odile = 80% What a naughty swan. I don't think Odette next year would be impressed by your unforgivable, reckless actions.
 * Polo = 3% = Back to the pool, here we go!
 * Rachel = 1% I'll be there for you.
 * Simon = 1% Cat 4? What the bloody hell was that?
 * Trudy = -3% = Judge Judy says NO.
 * Vance = Wat% = adVANCE or else... LOL JK
 * Wali = Huh% Huh.
 * Ana = 20% Do you wanna storm the islands?!? GO AWAY ANA! Ok bye. Try again in the Atlantic next year so you can go build Olaf the snowman the East Pacific.

“i liek turtlez 14:53, August 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here's my prediction


 * HERE WE GO!

Replacement Names
Although it's not a guarantee, there is a possibility Iselle could be retired due to its impacts on Hawaii. That being said, what are your thoughts on possible replacement names for Iselle? My suggestions are: Out of these suggestions (feel free to post more), I would pick Inga. Ryan1000 01:24, August 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ivy
 * Isha
 * Isla
 * Indira
 * Ines
 * Ivana
 * Ilene
 * Ivette
 * Ilsa
 * Isabela
 * Inga
 * Ilse
 * Ivonne
 * Ivanna


 * I'm not completely sure Iselle is doomed to go, but here are my top ten suggestions -


 * Iggy
 * Innocente
 * Iphigenia
 * Isabel
 * Ione
 * Isuelt
 * Irmelin
 * Inmaculada
 * Ilse
 * Imelia

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC) Like Iggy Azealea? Fancy name. Anyway, I thought of Imani. “i liek turtlez 16:24, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think Isabel and anything too similar is out of the question since the name was retired from the Atlantic lists only a decade ago. My top pick would be Ione - also retired in the Atlantic, but that was nearly 6 decades ago, and the name was subsequently used in the Pacific several times before male names were introduced. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:56, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iggy is good.71.187.142.27 16:31, August 22, 2014 (UTC) I was thinkin'that Iggy would kill mario for 2019.

Here's my suggestions:


 * Ivy
 * Ivana
 * Ivette
 * Iggy
 * Ione
 * Imelia
 * Ilsa
 * Isla
 * Inga
 * Ivonne

Ones that I like the most are in bold. It would also be cool to have a system named after Iggy Azalea. :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 16:48, August 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Or Iggy Pop. I'd much rather have Iggy used in a male context for that reason :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * What about Odile? We could have, Odessa, Odilia (lol), or maybe... for the bronies out there... OCTAVIA. WE NEED OCTAVIA! ANYONE WITH ME?  rarity is best pony 18:51, September 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hmm...if the current damage reports from Odile do turn out to be within the range of several billion dollars, then yes, she's gone. My suggestions for Odile are as follows:


 * Osana
 * Orma
 * Orna
 * Omena
 * Oliana
 * Olivie
 * Opalina
 * Ohanna
 * Olina

Olivie might be too close to Olivia, but otherwise, out of these suggestions, I would go with Olina. Ryan1000 20:39, September 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * My vote goes to Odessa, with Orchid as a runner-up. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:46, September 16, 2014 (UTC)

Here are my suggestions:

Iselle:
 * Ilaria
 * Imelda
 * Immacolata
 * Ines
 * Italia
 * Ilda
 * India
 * Iolanda
 * Irma
 * Isabella
 * Ivy

Norbert: (may have a chance at retirement due to AZ flooding, but I wouldn't count on it)
 * Nazario
 * Nevio
 * Nico
 * Nicola
 * Nino
 * Natalio
 * Nathan
 * Najee
 * Naldo
 * Narisco
 * Ned
 * Neil
 * Nerio
 * Newton
 * Nick
 * Nicky
 * Nicodemo
 * Nigel
 * Nils
 * Noah
 * Norton

Odile:
 * Orabella
 * Orlanda
 * Ornella
 * Orsola
 * Odalis
 * Octavia
 * Odelia
 * Ottavia

Andros 1337 (talk) 22:10, September 16, 2014 (UTC)

YES TO OCTAVIA! You're going to make this cellist and Vinyl they happiest fillies alive. GO OCTAVIA! rarity is best pony 22:34, September 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Not sure if Norbert'll go, but in the event it does, I would pick Neil as his replacement, with my personal runner-ups being Nico or Nigel. I would've picked Newton but unfortunately he's already on the EPac naming lists, scheduled for use in 2016. Irma and Imelda are currently in use in the Atlantic, being the replacements of Irene and Ingrid, respectively, and I find India very unlikely due to the country, similar to Israel which was removed in 2001. I still stick with Inga as my primary choice for Iselle, with a close runner-up being Ivy, and my runner-ups for Olina would be Ornella or Ora. Ryan1000 22:44, September 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Picking out of Andros' list, I would prefer Octavia for Odile and Nathan or Neil for Norbert. I don't think Norbert will be retired though.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 23:28, September 16, 2014 (UTC)

My top 3 choices for each name are as follows:
 * Iselle
 * 1) Ione
 * 2) Ivette
 * 3) Inga


 * Norbert
 * 1) Niko (the name of one of my closest friends)
 * 2) Neil
 * 3) Nigel


 * Odile
 * 1) Odessa
 * 2) Opalina
 * 3) Orchid

Also, I'm not a big fan of Karina being on the list because of its similarity to Katrina (though I acknowledge that Karina was added to the list more than two years before Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast), so I'd like to see Kendra on the list instead :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:32, September 28, 2014 (UTC)

My replacements, again, are Iggy for Iselle and Oratia for Odile. I doubt Norbert will be retired, but Noah is my suggestion for him. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:36, October 25, 2014 (UTC)

Post-season changes
The first TCR of the season was released on the 12th, so I figured it was time to start this section. Boris's strength was upped to 40 kts/998 mbar (from the operational peak of 35 kts/999 mbar). It also never made landfall - while it was operationally believed to have done so, post-analysis found that the low-level center actually remained offshore, coming within 20 nmi of the coast before dissipating. No deaths were reported from Boris while it was a tropical cyclone, but the precursor disturbance killed 5 in Guatemala. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks Like Cristina and Elida are now out. Nothing's particularly special intensity-wise, but the NHC report did say there was some extensive beach erosion and damage to hotels along the southern Mexican coast from Elida, so it looks like she wasn't a complete fail. Updated to include her a 1%. Ryan1000 20:25, August 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * I wasn't expecting that much impact from Elida. Guess she wasn't so pathetic after all. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:35, August 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fausto is out, nothing special though. Ryan1000 17:57, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda's has been released, it remains a strong cat 4, though the ACE has changed a bit. As for the Atlantic...as of now, none are released yet, but if we don't get significant activity soon, with only 5 storms thus far, I'll bend the December 1st rule again this year and open the TCR betting pool for the ATL by October 15. Ryan1000 20:41, September 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * I was hoping post-analysis would reveal our first May C5, but oh well. There's always next season! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:51, September 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hernan is done, nothing new. Ryan1000 20:23, October 25, 2014 (UTC)