Forum:2018 Pacific typhoon season/Maria

91W.INVEST (late June)
Just as I thought the WPac is quiet. This invest is in the open Pacific, and also appears in the Tropical Tidbits page. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:28, June 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still code yellow on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:29, June 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still code yellow 3 days later. According to the JTWC outlook, models don't show any significant development until beyond 72 hours. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:52, July 1, 2018 (UTC)

Oops. It suddenly became code red now. A Pacific Maria, anyone? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:04, July 2, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10W
And it becomes a TD, per JTWC only though (as of the moment). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:42, July 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * I didn't expect it to develop so quickly! Unfortunately looking very ominous in the long run. JTWC takes it up to a C3 on the SSHWS by 120 hours, and they note a possibility of RI after 30 hours. This system has a whole lot of ocean ahead, so I won't be surprised if this becomes a super typhoon. Japan looks to be in the system's direction. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:14, July 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * I haven't been paying as much attention to the WPac as I might like, but this may bring my attention back here. Super typhoon status is a distinct possibility, not to mention impacts anywhere from Taiwan to Korea to Japan. And guess what the next name on the list is...... it's Maria. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:17, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * UH OH! GUESS WHO'S BACK, BACK AGAIN! MARIA'S BACK! TELL A FRIEND! WHAT IS SHE GONNA DO THIS TIME, EH? SHE MESSED UP PR HARD LAST YEAR, LET'S HOPE SHE DOESN'T BRING HER ANTICS TO ASIA! SAME APPLIES TO LUIS THE VAMPIRE! §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 13:37, July 4, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Maria
Now, the JMA has formed this system as TS Maria. They're predicting a strong typhoon. This may also be a TS according to the JTWC(at least according to Wikipedia and satellite estimates). Let's see how powerful this one gets. The conditions are favorable for a really powerful typhoon(or super-typhoon). ChowKam2002 (talk) 14:34, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * HA! Told y'all she back b-tches. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 14:44, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Maria has a chance of beating out her intensity from last year. The GFS certainly thinks so. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:52, July 4, 2018 (UTC)

And now, Maria is already at 55kt and is predicted to reach 135kt, just below Cat. 5 super-typhoon status, per the JTWC. The JMA also currently evaluates the storm's strength as 45kt. ChowKam2002 (talk) 20:06, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I would like this to be a C5 (that is if it doesn't threaten land). Would be funny to have Maria become the first NHem C5 cyclone since Maria in the Atlantic last year. -- Roy 25  Happy Fourth of July!!! 22:04, July 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * It almost certainly will threaten land at this point, with the JTWC forecast cone pointing it directly into the Ryukyu Islands. After that, models seem to point it in the direction of North Korea. So no, this will not be a fishspinner and I would not root for a C5. Unfortunately, they (JTWC) take it up to a monstrous 135 knots and it could easily get even stronger than that. This could even surpass the intensity of Maria in the Atlantic last year... In summary, a monster is developing right now in front of our eyes. ~  Steve 🎆   Happy U.S.  Independence Day!  🇺🇸  02:52, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Maria
Maria is reminding me of another "M" storm that formed in this area 11 years ago in 2007 (Man-Yi), and may also become a strong cat 4 or even 5 when she reaches Okinawa or the other Ryukyu Islands, and could also rival the intensity of the strongest tropical cyclone of last year, which was also named Maria. I doubt this typhoon will be anywhere near as destructive (and hopefully not as deadly) as the Atlantic Maria last year, but it's still something to watch out for. Ryan1000 13:04, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Maria
Up to Typhoon strength by JMA, and is lashing Guam as we speak. Ryan1000 18:57, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Forecast peak intensity by JTWC is slightly down since my last post (now 125 knots). But we should not ignore its threats to the Ryukyu Islands and the landmasses beyond (like China and Korea). Like I said before, here comes a monster like Maria from last year. Hopefully it won't become as bad as I fear. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:06, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * A pinhole eye is developing and satellite estimates are already up to 110kt 1-minute sustained. This thing is RIing. ChowKam2002 (talk) 19:51, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now a Category 3. Wow, this thing is intensifying real fast. We might have another C5 named Maria here. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:59, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * This will very likely be a Category 5. It is even on the JTWC's predictions. With such an eye, like Maria's last year, this typhoon can easily hit Category 5 and more. ChowKam2002 (talk) 20:14, July 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow yesterday was only a TS, now a C3 already?! So much like the Atlantic Maria, except that Maria suddenly became a C5 instead. Bold prediction, this Maria will be a catastrophic monster and retired coming spring of 2019. Also, unrelated, but 2017 Season reanalysis was released some time ago, Noru was downgraded to a C4, Tembin was upgraded to a C2, and one other storm was upgraded to a major typhoon in the SSHWS. -- Roy 25  20:55, July 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * It is very ironic (and kind of creepy) that there may be 2 Northern Hemisphere Cat 5’s in a row with the name ‘Maria’ and it is also close to another US territory. Thankfully, this one shouldn’t be anywhere near as destructive. Also, off-topic, but with Noru being downgraded, that means that officially there wasn’t a single Cat 5 in the WPAC last year. This is the first time this has happened since the ‘70s (1977, I believe.) Apparently, the Atlantic stole all the Cat 5’s last year. Leeboy100 Hello!! 22:05, July 5, 2018 (UTC)

And the trilogy may just be completed if this incarnation reaches Category 5: Marie in the EPac (2014), Maria in the Atlantic (2017) and another Maria... in the WPac (2018). Forecast models take Maria to Shanghai (or near Shanghai) by next week after passing by Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands, and curve towards the Korean Peninsula right after. It is also forecast to enhance the southwest monsoon in the Philippines (where it is expected to take another name: Gardo), which also looks ominous. This Maria déjà vu is not looking good at all; God forbid the Pacific Maria would emulate the Atlantic Maria. While there are reports that Guam suffered from this storm, those are unconfirmed as of the moment and are highly likely to be exaggerated. But what is not an exaggeration is Maria's very rapid intensification. It certainly looks like a Category 5 in the latest satellite pictures – even if it is not (yet?) a C5. Of course, official advisories say otherwise: it is still a C3 on the SSHWS, with maximum 1-minute winds of 205 kph (125 mph). Pressure down to 955 mbars. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:35, July 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Current Dvorak T-number is at 6.8, this can mean that Maria is a Category 5 (again). Super typhoon status is almost certain, only a confirmation from JTWC is needed now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:29, July 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Confirmation obtained, currently 140 kts (1-min) and 90 kts (10-min)/940 mbar per JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:56, July 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now official. We have the second Cat 5 Maria in as many years. Winds are 140 kts, pressure is 940 mbars. Leeboy100 Hello!! 01:59, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

Maria's 10-minute winds have gone up to 120 mph but 1-min winds are now down to 150, slightly below the cat 5 peak Maria had earlier, albeit briefly. Also, the JTWC forecast now takes Maria on a collision course with Shanghai, China's largest city, as a 115 mph cat 3 typhoon in 5 days on the 11th. Hopefully that track shifts before then, because if a major typhoon strikes the shallow, tucked back Yangtze river delta where Shanghai resides, it would cause terrible storm surge and wind damage across the city, and if a worst-case scenario typhoon, something like a 4 or 5 hits the city directly, the damage would rival or exceed that of the Atlantic Hurricane Maria last year. Hopefully that doesn't happen with this Maria, Shanghai hasn't seen any category 3 or stronger storms directly hit the city since Wanda of 1956 and Gloria of 1949. Ryan1000 14:25, July 6, 2018 (UTC)

Maria is now weakening due to an eyewall replacement cycle. If it completes the cycle quickly it may be able to restrengthen back up to C5. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:50, July 7, 2018 (UTC)

Maria don't bring your dirty tricks up your sleeve to anime land! Is it me or Marie (2014), Maria (2017) and Maria (2018) have the same soul reborn? How do you really solve a problem like Maria? JULIE CALM DOWN AND GET BACK FROM UP THERE §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 16:47, July 7, 2018 (UTC)

Also I have fears for Luis who is on this year's typhoon naming list too. Do we have another rounded category 4 to play with? §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 16:48, July 7, 2018 (UTC)

Forecast to reintensify to 130 knots (150 mph) and could even become a super typhoon again. The forecast track appears to have shifted southward since my last post. This is a powerful beast, and hopefully the southern Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan, and China are spared from catastrophe. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:34, July 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * From Shanghai, Maria is now targeting Taipei. Back to JTWC's super typhoon status, but still a C4 with 150 mph winds (130 kts). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:43, July 8, 2018 (UTC)

Maria has gone back up to C5, and is looking great on satellite imagery. According to JMA pressure has gone down further this time to 915 hPa. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:04, July 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Maria's projected long term track has moved from Shanghai to about the area where Saomai of 2006 and Wipha of 2007 hit, which is passing north of Taiwan before hitting China. However, even though that area isn't as populated as Shanghai, it's still fairly populated overall, and Saomai was considered one of China's worst typhoons since Wanda in 1956. Hopefully Maria weakens below Saomai's intensity before she hits China down the road. Ryan1000 02:31, July 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now 135 knots (155 mph) according to JTWC. Getting worried about that region of China. Hopefully it weakens significantly by the time it gets there, and isn't very destructive/deadly. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:29, July 9, 2018 (UTC)

Maria is currently forecast to hit mainland China after passing north of Taiwan as a large 115 mph category 3 storm. Also, one other thing, Maria is the first category 5 storm recorded in the WPac since Nock-Ten in 2016. Noru of last year was downgraded to a strong cat 4 in reanalysis, making 2017 the first typhoon season since 1977 to have no cat 5's. Ryan1000 14:56, July 9, 2018 (UTC)

Typhoon Maria (Gardo)
Down to a low-end Category 4. Winds (1-minute sustained, of course) are down to 115 knots (~130 mph). Maria should gradually weaken from this point, unless a twist would occur. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:49, July 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * A Category 3 now, 110 knots (125 mph) by the JTWC and 100 knots (115 mph)/935 mbar by the JMA. Hopefully it weakens a lot more by the time it makes landfall in China. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:49, July 10, 2018 (UTC)

The current JTWC forecast expects Maria to be at 105 mph by the time she makes landfall between the cities of Fuzhou and Wenzhou later tonight, and the eye is currently north of Taiwan. But even if the storm doesn't directly hit either city, due to ERC's expanding the windfield of the storm, Maria is a very large typhoon, even larger than Saomai was, and could cause serious storm surge and flooding to the region even if the winds aren't as high as Saomai or previous storms. Fitow of 2013 was only a tropical storm when it made landfall in China, but that storm was so big that the flooding from it's rains caused over 10 billion dollars in damage. Maria is heading towards the same area Fitow hit and could be worse if it's stronger. Ryan1000 16:27, July 10, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall in China
Maria is now roaring ashore north of the city of Fuzhou, near where Fitow made landfall, as a 115 mph category 3 typhoon. This could be a very, very severe storm for China since it missed Taiwan to the north, so it didn't lose as much power as previous storms did in this area. Hopefully loss of life isn't that high, because it's almost inevitable that this will be destructive. Ryan1000 01:04, July 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally down to a high-end Category 2. Hopefully this won't be Fitow 2.0, but I am not that optimistic about it. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:54, July 11, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Maria (2nd time)
Down to a severe tropical storm due to interaction with land, forecast to dissipate over land later today or tomorrow. But the threat of inland flooding isn't going to be over by then. Ryan1000 10:31, July 11, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Maria (2nd time)
Down to a TS now, but Maria is still producing very heavy rain over China, and it's likely causing a lot of flooding. Ryan1000 13:16, July 11, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Maria
Now post-tropical, and according to Wikipedia, Maria only caused minimal damage and no deaths so far. Let's hope it stays like that. -- Roy 25  19:51, July 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * If Fitow of 2013 caused 10 billion dollars in damage to China when it hit the same area Maria did as a large, flooding tropical storm, a 115 mph category 3 landfalling storm like Maria in the same area can't have "minimal" damage, as much as I hate to admit it. I'd assume it's "unknown" instead of "minimal". Ryan1000 20:31, July 11, 2018 (UTC)