Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cost Rica
System flared up over the far eastern edge of the Pacific Ocean this morning and is now a peculiar and interest blob of thunderstorm activity south of Costa Rica. Latest analysis from the Ocean Prediction Center say that this is a 1008 mbar low-pressure system embedded in the ITCZ. Our first AOI in the EPAC this year. Bears watching.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:57, May 12, 2013 (UTC)

I was just coming to the Wiki to tell everyone that too. Haha, It seems that we might have an early riser this season, possibly before the season even starts. This AOI looks particularly interesting to me, as of 7:20 p.m. MDT, I looked at a moving satellite picture on the NHC website. The system is beginning to show some slight rotation and thunderstorm convection looks to be somewhat healthy. Could this become Alvin? Or at least TD 1? We'll have to see. STO12 (talk) 01:20, May 13, 2013 (UTC)

Currently, this system is not on the GTWO, but I will not be surprised if the NHC issues a special one soon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:09, May 13, 2013 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
I'm currently not expecting much out of this one, but the next few weeks are going to be quite interesting. Several models see quite a bit of action in the next several days as a powerful MJO pulse comes into the Atlantic and EPac by about May 22nd. By then the CMS sees at least 2 or 3, and possibly even 4, storms developing in the EPac, though heading out to sea. The 06Z GFS is consistent with developing an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean by that time and that could possibly become Andrea. Of course, this is 200 or more hours into the future and the uncertainty is quite high at that point in time, but the next few weeks will bear watching nontheless. I think it's time to wake up from our NHem slumber. There also might have been a subtropical storm in the Atlantic north of the Lesser Antillies the past few days, but NHC never issued any special advisory on that. Might be discovered post-season, if it isn't operationally. Ryan1000 18:52, May 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * The models are in love with this system, most take it up to a hurricane in a few days time, but I think that's a bit bullish for this time of year. Regarding that "sub-tropical storm" we had a few days ago, it was interesting, but it was sort lived and probably will not be added at the end of this year. I found the track I made on several different weather blogs which was cool, but on the other hand felt like they forced a storm out of that low. Going to be tracking more potent systems in the upcoming months. This year is definitely going to be much more interesting than what we have had the last few years. Supportstorm (talk) 23:06, May 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's possible this could become a hurricane, but yeah, that's pretty agressive for a storm this early on. Alma of 1990 remains the earliest hurricane on record to form in the East Pacific proper since the sattelite era began, becoming a cat 1 on the day the season begun, May 15 (though Ekeka of 1992 is undoubtedly the earliest one known to form east of the dateline itself). I have doubts this will do it though. And knowing this year will be ENSO-neutral, we could see anything from a  re-2005 (hopefully not) to a re-2000 or 2008. 2013 will definitely be interesting to watch. Ryan1000 23:18, May 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * On TWO at 30%! Isaac829 E-Mail  19:54, May 14, 2013 (UTC)

This will most likely become Alvin, from nothing to 30%? I mean come on! This thing is getting more organized and is in a slightly favorable environment. Another early season start, about the same time as Aletta from last year. STO12 (talk) 21:43, May 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Some models do see this turning north in 4-5 days and possibly threatining southern Baja California, but I think this will, more likely than not, stay out to sea. I do think this will become Alvin though, it's moving into an increasingly favorable environment. The MJO pulse that will come here in a week or so is just getting warmed up with Alvin-to-be. Ryan1000 11:08, May 15, 2013 (UTC


 * 80% here comes td1 and possibly Alvin.Allanjeffs 12:50, May 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * THE WAIT IS FINALLY OVER! Tropical Depression One-E has now formed! The Munk is expected to become a Category 1/2 hurricane this Friday according to the NHC! The system is moving westwards at 10kt. Guys, what do you think? 188.223.248.201 16:30, May 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
First storm forms on the first day of season. Perfect.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:31, May 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Alvin
That didn't take long... Supportstorm (talk) 20:45, May 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * It looks very nicely organized for it's current intensity. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:11, May 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's 40 knts per ATCF. GO EPAC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YE Tropical Cyclone  02:06, May 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * ^ Basin discrimination  (Just kidding) . Alvin looks better every hour.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:13, May 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Abnormally high SSTs ahead, would not be suprised to see our first major of the year. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  02:16, May 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Like YE prefer the Epac I prefer the Atlantic anyways Alvin have a chance to reach cat 1 hurricane or 2 our vacations are over the hurricane season is here.Allanjeffs 02:48, May 16, 2013 (UTC)

Neat how Alvin developed on par with the start of the hurricane season. I think this will peak as a solid Category 1 hurricane. As of nightfall its CDO has expanded.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 02:52, May 16, 2013 (UTC)

Probably not as fast as it form it would probably die it looks like it has join the monsoon through.Allanjeffs 20:26, May 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * 40 mph now. Could be gone tomorrow. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:42, May 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Its down and out imoAllanjeffs 17:48, May 19, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alvin
And it's dead. Never got past 50 mph. Unfortunately, this one failed. I was really hoping at least a cat 1 out of this. Ryan1000 11:12, May 17, 2013 (UTC)

Wow, Alvin passed by so fast. I missed this storm entirely. Maybe I will catch Barbara. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:16, May 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * At 20% atm. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:42, May 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * What a twist, now the whole world is dead. As fast as the season began it died out. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  00:45, May 18, 2013 (UTC)

Back up to 30% again. It's got marginal SSTs to work with but the upper level winds are decreasing. Keep an eye out. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  19:50, May 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * It looks like it's trying to make the best out of what it has. A look at the NHC's TAFB forecast doesn't expect much from this either. All the winds are stacked towards the north of the system, and it looks like it'll be that way from now on.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 22:08, May 18, 2013 (UTC)

Back down to 20% again.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:38, May 19, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 10% as conditions become unfavorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:08, May 19, 2013 (UTC)

It has been almost a week and Alvin is still quite lively. Seems quite organized on the current satellite images actually. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Just crossed the 140W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:35, May 24, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Over Colombia/Panama
GFS and several other models pulls out a weak tropical storm/depression out of this one four day onwards. Amazingly enough, it is already sitting at 1005mb. With almost non-existent wind shear ahead of its path, we might get Barbara in a couple of days time. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  00:21, May 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Two Storms in May? For 2 straight years? Wow, that's a first. Hope that happens! Ryan1000 01:26, May 20, 2013 (UTC)

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 09N87W LATE IN THE WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SOF 12N AS THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. We've got company. Two separate systems will move into the EPac later today and later this week. GFS anticipates a weak coast-hugger tropical storm/depression, similar to the track of Odile 08'. Keep your eyes open, the sea is not dead. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  19:31, May 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dunno what NHC is doing with their TWOs, but TCFP anticipates some chance of formation. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:12, May 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * I do too, but not until, say 4 days out. Btw (off-topic a bit), pray for the folks in Moore...Their recent tornado was possibly much worse than the one of 1999. Ryan1000 14:47, May 21, 2013 (UTC)

A TROPICAL LOW CROSSING THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA NEAR 10N80W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SW CARIBBEAN WED. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A SECOND WEAKER LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N86W EARLY THU...WITH THE LOW MEANDERING IN THAT AREA THIS WEEKEND. I've got a bad feeling for this storm, there isn't much shear ahead of its path and the seas are well over what it should be at this time of the year. The surface low haven't established yet and GFS is predicting a borderline hurricane. And of course, it's pretty horrible to see what's happening in Moore. Hope they can recover from their losses. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:25, May 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Currently south of Guatemala. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 20%, NHC seems to have combined this system with 91E. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:16, May 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * This one has more potential than 91E ever had this one is to be watch as models bring it like a cat 1 or strong storm towards Mexico.Allanjeffs 00:46, May 25, 2013 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
This is the one to the east. Currently forecast to become Barbara before heading into southern Mexico. 91E didn't make it. Ryan1000 12:06, May 26, 2013 (UTC)

I believe this is at 30%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:43, May 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one looks pretty good. Yqt1001 (talk) 20:36, May 26, 2013 (UTC)

I think this will probrably become Barbara, but likely not more than a TS. Ryan1000 21:20, May 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Circulation now seen on satellite, this is now to to 1008mb. I have a feeling that the next TWO might up this to red (50%). Definitely strengthening, expect Barbara soon. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:48, May 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 40%. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:42, May 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * HS, red is 60% or more, not 50%. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:15, May 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Oops, my bad. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:16, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Might become Barbara but if it doesn`t do it soon it will make landfall.Allanjeffs 01:47, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 50%. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  05:50, May 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this'll become Barbara. It could even become a hurricane according to some models, but likely not more than 75-80 mph, if that. Ryan1000 11:31, May 27, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 60%. This could shape up to be something interesting.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:04, May 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * 80%. Should be TD2E soon. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:40, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * TD 2E should develop tonight or tomorrow morning if this trends continues I don`t think a hurricane wil ldevelop but Barbara appears poise to come to us from this system.Allanjeffs 21:01, May 27, 2013 (UTC)

I think we will see at least tropical depression from this. Probably, we will see a tropical storm. Anyway, this invest is already affecting Mexico. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have a feeling this might turn out to be like Five-E or Eleven-E. It might not have enough time to strengthen before it makes landfall. Probably will be a tropical depression. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:00, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * The models are all over the place for this one. GFDL sees a landfalling hurricane around Texas after reintensifying in the Gulf. HWRF sees a category 2 hurricane making landfall and rapidly dissipating. Conservative models doesn't pick up on 92E at all. Anyway, NHC noted decreased convection and is still sticking with 80%. The outflow of 92E is enormous, with curve bands all the way the Cuba. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:03, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like it's coming in sooner than I thought. We might not even see Barbara from this, but only 2-e. I think it still has a chance to become Barbara, at most 50 mph, but not much more than that. Ryan1000 00:24, May 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * UP TO 90%! Staying up late to see if a depression forms, and looks like it's going. Advisories should be initiated next morning. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  05:56, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Anytime now, 92E. Anytime now... Ryan1000 11:33, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

A recent ASCAT pass has the center as a total mess. It's also getting really close to landfall....might be getting very close to being a 90% bust. Yqt1001 (talk) 14:58, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
Speak to fast 2 depression of the Eastern north pacific has come to us base on ATCF  files<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">invest_RENUMBER_ep922013_ep022013.ren 28-May-2013 18:26 2.4K.Allanjeffs 18:41, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah my curse didn't work. :P Let's see if it can manage to get a name. Yqt1001 (talk) 18:44, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

The NHC expects a 60 mph storm for this depression. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:25, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barbara
Well that didn't take long. (Take 2). 02E wrapped itself quickly and is now a tropical storm per latest NHC advisory.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 23:44, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's developing rather impressively. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:59, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Might have a chance at becoming a hurricane after all.Allanjeffs 00:01, May 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I agree, it actually looks rather nice on sattelite imagery. Barbara is looking more impressive now than it ever was. It's pretty similar to the 2007 Barbara, but this one might have a shot at getting a bit stronger. Ryan1000 01:03, May 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I do not think Barbara will become a hurricane; it should peak as a strong tropical storm at the greatest. Also, Barbara's formation marks the first time in Pacific history two consecutive seasons had two storms forming in May. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:03, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 40kts and 1001mb. Strongest so far storm this year. Yqt1001 (talk) 02:38, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Not sure if this is the same system, but it's now 20% on the NHC GTWO.  CobraStrike  ( t  )(  b  )( c ) 20:47, May 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * It is, hopefully it'll become Barbara. Expected to head out to sea like Alvin. Ryan1000 21:50, May 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure whether this is the same system. GOES-14 is currently down and I can't really tell if this invest is its westernmost extension or a separate storm. Regardless, GFS predicts a landfalling hurricane around May 30th for the other storm. The current model guidance appears... ominous. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:59, May 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * This is the one in the EPac; the one that GFS foresees in the NW Caribbean is a different storm altogether. Regardless, I think this'll become Barbara. Ryan1000 01:33, May 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now 30%, Barbara is on her way. Ryan1000 18:02, May 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Even though Barbara might be on her way this year for this basin NOAA is predicting a below average season.Allanjeffs 18:54, May 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * MJO should hit EPac soon, Barbara's got a chance. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:11, May 23, 2013 (UTC)

Still at 30%. I think we'll be seeing a season similar to last year, probrably near-normal to slightly below or above normal, more likely than not. However, I'm not looking forward to anything exceptional. My predictions for EPac remain at 14-18 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and near-normal to slightly above normal ACE. We're going to have ENSO neutral this year, not El Nino or La Nina, but nontheless, it's a year to watch in both the ATL and EPac. Ryan1000 23:36, May 23, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 20%Allanjeffs 18:03, May 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Eh...I don't think that is the same system as this one. It's further east and south of Central America. This might have been the system GFS was foreseeing. (Forgot to sign in) Ryan1000 18:49, May 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, I think it merged with the one GFS was foreseeing. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:58, May 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * This wave has gotten a lot less organized. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:17, May 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I think this one may merge the large monsoon trough to the E. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:31, May 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:45, May 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * I really don't think that the 10% will develop, but the 20% behind it looks more interesting. STO12 (talk) 02:22, May 25, 2013 (UTC)

Wow... there is a train of three AOIs in the eastern East Pacific... from west to east, 10%, 10%, and 20%, respectively. I can't identify which one is which, but I do know that 91E is the westernmost one :P.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:22, May 25, 2013 (UTC)

The 20% and 10% systems merged to create one giant system. It's currently at 80%, and looks to become Barbara not too long from now. STO12 (talk) 18:59, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * You've got the wrong storm. 91E is sitting at 10% as of now. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:57, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * 30% and looking better. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:53, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Would be amazing to have 3 name storms in the Eastern Pacific in May and 3 name storms in June in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 00:01, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * The next storm in both seasons was a "Tropical Storm Barbara".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * Finally, in both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: -- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:02, May 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - No.
 * Barbara - ?


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)