Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC Best Track for last year is out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

September
Welcome to September in the Western Pacific! I hope we can get some kind of typhoon streak going. We are really lagging behind in strong storms here. I expect 6 JMA named storms, 5 severe tropical storms, 4 typhoons, and 2 super typhoons, and an ACE of 65. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:58, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Toraji
This year sucks. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:29, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Seriously? Another weak storm?! With 10-minute winds of 35 knots (40 mph/60 km/h) and a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), it is expected to reach 45 knots (50 mph)/990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg) before dissipating. And yet another waste of a name/fail... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:16, September 1, 2013 (UTC)

Well, Toraji's winds have increased to 40 knots (45 mph/70 km/h) (10-minute winds) and its pressure has fallen to 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg), but it should not get much stronger. And the JTWC has upgraded Toraji to a 35 knot (40 mph/65 km/h) tropical storm (1-minute winds). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:14, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

What's with all the little weaklings?! God, I'm tired of these. And I agree with Isaac829, this year sucks. If the Northern Hemisphere doesn't stop producing weaklings, then I will go furious. We need some decent major hurricanes, for once. And by "decent" I mean "storms that don't affect land that much", because I don't want any devastation... Steven09876 T 16:53, September 2, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Toraji
It's almost like Category 1 intensity for the NHem has become the new Category 5... Anyway, the JMA has upgraded Toraji to a 50 knot (60 mph/100 km/h) (10-minute winds), 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) severe tropical storm, and the JTWC has upgraded Toraji to 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute winds). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:24, September 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * And now Toraji is passing into southern Japan as a tropical storm, and will dissipate soon later. Ryan1000 01:55, September 4, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Toraji
Dissipated over southern Japan. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:08, September 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yawn. We have yet another weak TS. When are we going to get another typhoon already? geez Steven09876 T 02:01, September 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Guys,  I figured out why we're so dead. The TWC decided to name winter storms last winter, which made hurricanes jealous that they're not the only named storms out there so they've decided to not show up to the party this year. Mystery solved. And no, that's not sarcasm. Last winter's inactivity is literally why this year is dead. Ryan1000 17:29, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'll believe in the conspiracy :P  Isaac829 E-Mail  19:36, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * I knew naming winter storms was a bad idea! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:43, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this, too. The ATL, EPAC, and WPAC are all jealous. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:31, September 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * So, the TWC naming winter storms is the reason why we are so dead worldwide. The basins must have gotten very jealous. >:) Steven09876 T 22:56, September 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Actually naming winter storms was a good idea my aunt that lives in Vermont says she pay more attention to winter storms since now that they are name.So for public awareness is good.Allanjeffs 05:52, September 13, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Everyone is clearly losing interest in the WPAC. A 30 knot (35 mph/55 km/h), 1012 mbar (hPa; 29.88 inHg) tropical depression is spinning 870 miles (1400 km) east of Wake Island. Also, the JTWC gives this depression a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:17, September 7, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression
Wow. Just like that, the depression fades away. What a fail! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:41, September 8, 2013 (UTC)

Seriously, the WPac has been acting very quiet and weak lately. I hope we get another typhoon soon, and this depression was an epic fail. Steven09876 T 15:47, September 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Man-yi
Well, WPac's back up again with this storm. Forecast to peak as a C1 as it nears southern Japan, and passes just south of, or right over, Tokyo in 4 days. Ryan1000 02:07, September 13, 2013 (UTC)

Japan may need to watch out. Although Man-yi is currently at 35 knots (40 mph/65 km/h) (1 and 10-minute sustained winds) per both the JMA and JTWC, and its pressure is at 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg), it is forecast to reach winds of 55 knots (60 mph) (10-minute sustained) /980 mbar (hPa) per the JMA and 65 knots (1-minute sustained) (75 mph) per the JTWC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:55, September 13, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have doubts that this will be too severe for Japan as it parallels the southern coastline of the country, not to mention Tokyo has some of the best floodwalls in the world to protect from typhoon storm surges. They experience an average of one tropical storm or typhoon a year, last year typhoons Jelewat and Guchol passed near the city as tropical storms. I think a good analogy to this would be Typhoon Maria in 2006, a category 1 storm that nears Tokyo but turns away. Ryan1000 15:35, September 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Man-yi is finally here! I hope it won't be too bad for Japan. Steven09876 T 23:28, September 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Both the JMA and the JTWC now take this into Japan as a typhoon in 3 days or so, right near Tokyo as a cat 1. Now it'll probably be more like Fitow in 2007, a large cat 1 that caused about a billion dollars in damage and killed 7 in Japan. I doubt it'll be as bad as Talas of 2010 though, it's forecast to move very fast when it nears Tokyo, rocketing along at 20 to 30 mph. Ryan1000 01:26, September 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * The gfs and the Euro were predicting a major out of this one.Epic fail for those models unless it put RI.Allanjeffs 01:50, September 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Man-Yi looks pretty nice on sattelite imagery, but a cat 3 or stronger out of this seems too far for me. A cat 2 isn't impossible, but I think only a cat 1 as of now. Ryan1000 06:00, September 14, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi
Also, severe TS as of now, looks better. Ryan1000 06:03, September 14, 2013 (UTC)

Man-yi is currently at 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute winds) /985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg) per the JMA and at 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of up to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) per the JTWC. I believe Man-yi has a slight chance of becoming a weak typhoon, but I am not placing my money on it. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:20, September 14, 2013 (UTC)

I think Man-yi will become a typhoon by JTWC's standards and remain a severe tropical storm by JMA's standards, similar to Rumbia, Trami, and Pewa. But Japan could get a beating from this in a few days. Steven09876 T 15:18, September 14, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Man-yi (2nd time)
Man-yi's pressure remains the same. However, its 1-minute winds have risen to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) per the JTWC, and its 10-minute winds have fallen to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) per the JMA. Maybe this storm will not be as bad as feared... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:58, September 14, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Man-yi (2nd time)
Or maybe not! The JMA has raised Man-yi's winds back to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h, 30 m/s) (10-minute sustained) and lowered its pressure to 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg). In addition, the JTWC has also raised Man-yi's one-minute sustained winds up to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h). However, the JMA is incredibly resilient with Man-yi attaining typhoon intensity. It takes the storm to 60 knots (70 mph, 30 m/s) (10-minute sustained) /970 mbar (hPa) before it weakens it. This may be good news, as Yokohama, Tokyo, Kobe, and Sapporo, Japan's largest cities, are all in Man-yi's forecast cone. The JTWC also predicts peak winds of 60 knots (70 mph, 30 m/s) (1-minute sustained) before weakening it as well. Tokyo and Kyoto are both in the JTWC's forecast cone for Man-yi. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:55, September 15, 2013 (UTC)

Man-yi is not stopping. Both the JTWC and JMA have upgraded the storm's winds to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h, 30 m/s) (one and ten-minute sustained). Gusts from the system are currently at 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) as assessed by the JTWC, and the JMA has lowered its pressure to 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg). The JMA does not forecast any more intensification, and the JTWC is also resilient to upgrade Man-yi to a typhoon. Regardless, Japan needs to take the necessary preparations to get ready for Man-yi. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:51, September 15, 2013 (UTC)

Feeling lonely Andrew? Yeah, no one cares about the WPac. I don't think Man-yi will become a typhoon, but it could cause some destruction in Japan. Steven09876 T 00:14, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Tokyo has some of the best floodwalls in the world to endure typhoon storm surges, they can probably endure any typhoon except something like Vera of 1959, the most powerful landfalling typhoon in Japan's history. This shouldn't be anything exceptional for the folks there. Ryan1000 01:38, September 16, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Man-yi
Racing northeastward away from Japan. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:51, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like Japan made it out ok. Ryan1000 18:55, September 16, 2013 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
Behind Man-Yi, there's another invest in WPac. This will probably become Usagi. It's currently east-northeast of Luzon. Ryan1000 18:57, September 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 17W (Odette)
Scratch what I said a few seconds ago, this actually is a TD right now. Ryan1000 19:00, September 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Usagi (Odette)
Now named by JMA. The GFS and Euro forecasts with this are pretty ominous. Both models take this storm crashing into Hong Kong as a powerful typhoon in 5 days. Then again, that was also Utor's initial forecast and it missed them, but either way, this one bears watching. Ryan1000 20:11, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * We might see something big come out of this. Stay tuned. If this crashes into Hong Kong as a powerful typhoon, then it will be very devastating. But I think Usagi will probably miss them. Let's hope so... Steven09876 T 21:47, September 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * The JMA forecast a 70 knot (80 mph) (10-minute winds) /965 mbar (hPa) typhoon out of Utor, and the JTWC expect 80 knot (90 mph) winds (1-minute winds) . Hopefully, Usagi stays weak! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:03, September 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Usagi's 10-minute sustained winds have increased to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h), and its pressure has fallen to 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg) per the JMA. The JTWC has upped Usagi's 1-minute sustained winds to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) and its gusts to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). It is forecast to reach 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute sustained) /960 mbar (hPa) per the JMA, and 105 knots (120 mph)/gusts of 130 knots (150 mph) per the JTWC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:01, September 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Usagi is almost Stationary right now, but the latest forecast from the JMA takes it to 960 mbars by the 20th, not to mention by then it could be dangerously close to China. Fortunately, it looks like it will make landfall well to the east of Hong Kong, possibly clip southern Taiwan. Ryan1000 23:53, September 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, at least it will miss Hong Kong. Usagi will almost certainly become a typhoon, and China could take a beating from this. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:34, September 18, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoon Usagi (Odette)
The JMA (and the JTWC) have now confirmed this to be a typhoon. The latest forecast actually turns it more due west in the late forecast period, Hong Kong might not be completely out of the woods yet. Peak intensity from JMA now expected to be 950 mbars. Ryan1000 14:50, September 18, 2013 (UTC)

Usagi is bombing out! Its windspeed is now at 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and its pressure is at 955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) per the JMA, and at 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) (1-minute sustained) /gusts of 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h) per the JTWC. The typhoon is forecast to reach 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute sustained) /940 mbar (hPa) per the JMA and 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute sustained) /130 knot (150 mph) gusts per the JTWC. Hong Kong and Macau are both in in the JTWC's forecast cone, so they are not off the hook yet. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:04, September 18, 2013 (UTC)

Yeah, its bombing out! JTWC now predicts that Usagi will hit Hong Kong, and they might be in trouble. Stay tuned. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 04:22, September 19, 2013 (UTC)

Usagi is the first cat 5 in the Wpac.Finally!Allanjeffs 12:13, September 19, 2013 (UTC)

Oh my goodness, no! Usagi just consumed a whole gallon bottle of caffeine! Per the JMA, we have a monster 110 knot (125 mph, 205 km/h) (10-minute sustained) /910 mbar (hPa; 26.87 inHg) typhoon! The JTWC has reported winds of 140 knots (160 mph, 260 km/h) (1-minute sustained), with gusts of 155 knots (180 mph). Fortunately, the JMA expects no further intensification, but the JTWC predicts Usagi's winds will increase to 145 knots (165 mph) (1-minute winds), and its gusts to 175 knots (195 mph)! Allan, please do not cheer this typhoon on. A Category 5 heading for a major metropolitan region is the last thing you want to be supporting. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:25, September 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * I removed the "Super Typhoon Usagi" header because the JMA does not officially designate super typhoons as such. Usagi is, I believe, the first Category 5 tropical cyclone worldwide this year. It likely - and hopefully - will weaken before landfall. Why is it that whenever we finally get a nice, powerful tropical cyclone this year, it has to be a threat to land? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:49, September 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Holy crap. This storm is scary. We now have a huge monster Category 5 super typhoon, and its headed straight for Hong Kong!!! Hopefully it will weaken significantly before striking the region, or else a big disaster is about to unfold. Stay tuned. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:24, September 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, the JMA and JTWC forecasts drop this down to a cat 3/2 before it makes landfall just east of Hong Kong in 3 days. Although this is a powerful storm now, it probably won't be a doomsday disaster, but Hong Kong could be affected with some winds and surge either way, just nothing too severe. It's been a while since Hong Kong got a violent typhoon make landfall directly in the city, but that's the last thing a city like that, or Shanghai/Tokyo, needs. And yeah, this is officially "Typhoon" Usagi, not a "super" typhoon, as JMA doesn't call it a super typhoon, only JTWC does. Ryan1000 06:04, September 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Hi guys, I'm in Hong Kong right now. I'm staying at the hotel and ride out the storm. Isaac829 E-Mail  09:59, September 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * You could be in for quite the ride Isaac. The latest JTWC forecast has this storm hitting the city in two days at 110 mph, while the JMA has Usagi missing the city just to the east, but still passing very near the city as a cat 4 with 945 mbars. That's not good, but at least it's not guranteed to directly hit Hong Kong per JMA. Hopefully that happens to be true, and it misses the city. Ryan1000 14:12, September 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Stay safe, Isaac! Don't use an umbrella to shield yourself from the rain! :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:03, September 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JTWC has lowered their landfall intensity to 100 mph, and the GFS/Euro now see this hitting Hong Kong directly at about that strength too. The JMA forecast still takes it just east of the city, but all the other forecasts make this a near-direct hit. Well, it's not a doomsday storm if it's only 100 mph, but that could still mean quite a bit knowing the size of this storm and the vulnerability of Hong Kong to typhoons. Ryan1000 19:45, September 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Usagi is powering down. Per the JMA, its 10-minute winds have fallen to 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) and its pressure has risen to 925 mbar (hPa; 27.17 inHg). The JTWC reports the typhoon's one-minute winds to be 130 knots (150 mph, 240 km/h) and its gusts to be 160 knots (185 mph). Both the JMA and JTWC are very aggressive with Usagi. The JMA shows doom for Hong Kong and Macao, and the JTWC puts all of southern China and northern Vietnam in danger. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:21, September 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, looks like it won't be the doomsday storm I once thought of. But still, Hong Kong and Isaac, stay safe! This could still bring plenty of destruction, once it impacts Hong Kong. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:29, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Since my last post, the JMA has lowered Usagi's winds to 90 knots (105 mph, 165 km/h) (10-minute winds), and the JTWC has lowered the typhoon's winds to 120 knots (140 mph, 220 km/h) (1-minute winds). However, the threat to Hong Kong and the rest of southern China remains the same. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:09, September 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * The latest forecast now brings it down to category 1 intensity when Usagi passes by Hong Kong, but it could still bring a heavy storm surge and quite some damage. Hong Kong is no stranger to typhoons, but they haven't seen a significant one since Rose in 1971, which hit with 100 mph winds, killed 110 and caused millions of dollars in damage. Other notable typhoons in Hong Kong's history include Ruby in 1964, the strongest to hit the city with 140 mph winds, Wanda in 1962, Mary in 1960, and several unnamed typhoons in 1874, 1900, 1906, 1908, 1923, and the infamous Hong Kong Typhoon of 1937, which leveled the city and killed 10,000 people. With regards to Usagi, it's place on Hong Kong's most notorious typhoons will probably be in the lower half, since they've gotten more prepared since Rose and it's not going to be as strong as some of the typhoons that have struck them in the past. Ryan1000 00:01, September 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * I see a pinhole eye peeping out from the core of Usagi. There's a window of opportunity to restrengthen somewhat, methinks. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:38, September 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * I, unfortunately, agree with that...Usagi looks pretty nice on sattelite imagery, it might even make it up to a strong cat 3 or cat 4 before landfall. It's organized a lot in the past few hours. Ryan1000 07:26, September 22, 2013 (UTC)

Usagi has collapsed to 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (10-minute sustained) /935 mbar (hPa; 27.61 inHg) per the JMA and 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (1-minute sustained) /120 knot (140 mph, 220 km/h) gusts. Both agencies predict weakening from here onwards, but it could easily reintensify. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:44, September 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Seems to be making landfall now, well up the coast from Hong Kong. Winds are at 80 kts per the JTWC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:20, September 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Okay, Usagi is now lashing Hong Kong with strong typhoon winds and heavy rain. I hope they survive the storm. Stay safe, Isaac! Don't let the typhoon destroy all of your stuff! :P <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:34, September 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Don't worry Steven, Usagi made landfall well enough to the city's east that it won't be too severe for them. Hit at 100 mph, but it could've been much worse, like Soulik or Utor could've been. Ryan1000 17:34, September 22, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Usagi (2nd time)
Usagi's ten-minute winds have collapsed to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) and its pressure has risen to 980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg) per the JMA, no longer making it a typhoon. Per the JTWC's final advisory, Usagi's gusts have fallen to 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h). Usagi should die over China within 48 hours. Also, impactwise, Usagi has caused five fatalities and $14.7 million (2013 USD) in losses. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:28, September 22, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Usagi
Most recent JMA advisory was issued nearly 24 hours ago, so I'm assuming that's curtains for Usagi, which means "rabbit" in Japanese. Huh, so we just got Category 5 Super Typhoon Fluffy Bunny, eh? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 07:28, September 23, 2013 (UTC)

Pretty funny. Likewise, Utor means "squall line" in Marshallese, so we had a Category 4 Super Typhoon Squall Line there. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:14, September 23, 2013 (UTC)

Hehe, so it looks like we had a Super Typhoon Fluffy Bunny in Japanese and a Super Typhoon Squall Line in Marshallese. How funny. Anyway, at least Usagi (or the Fluffy Bunny storm :P) wasn't the big monster I used to predict, and it wasn't as bad as I expected. Hello Isaac, are you safe? I think you are. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 21:49, September 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Surely, he will be! @Isaac, how was the storm? Anyway... Super Typhoon Fluffy Bunny?!?! Wow, how kawaii! :D I LOVE fluffy bunnies, they iz dancing on rainbowz. They iz comin for invazion. LOL. Squall line?! LOL!?!?! I will LOL if this happens in the Atlantic. XD The fun has been doubled sigpic.png HAHA, the fun has been doubled! The fun has been doubled sigpic.png 23:16, September 23, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Just formed in the South China Sea. Ryan1000 20:11, September 16, 2013 (UTC)

The JMA only takes the system to 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute winds) /998 mbar (hPa). No advisories have been written by the JTWC. I doubt this will become anything significant. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:04, September 17, 2013 (UTC)

I think this will become Pabuk, and probably be only a weak to moderate TS. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 00:38, September 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not looking too likely at this point Steven. It's about to move ashore in Vietnam and organization hasn't improved since the last few days. This will probably stay a TD. Ryan1000 14:50, September 18, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 18W
The JTWC has classified this depression as Tropical Depression 18W. Currently at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) /996 mbar (hPa) per the JMA and 25 knots (30 mph) (1-minute sustained) /35 knot (40 mph) gusts per the JTWC, it should not get any stronger than it currently is. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:12, September 18, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 18W
The depression dissipated over Vietnam. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:36, September 19, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Currently at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) /1000 mbar (hPa), the JMA has classified a new tropical depression east of Usagi. It is forecast to reach 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute sustained) /996 mbar (hPa), according to the agency. Also, the JTWC has labeled this system as Invest 91W and given it a TCFA. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:36, September 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * That's only an initial forecast as of now. Both the GFS and Euro explode this storm (future Pabuk) into a powerful tyhoon, but unlike Usagi, it will turn north towards Japan, then east out to sea and die without affecting land, except maybe some of the Marshall/Marina Islands. Ryan1000 19:40, September 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * This depression's pressure has fallen to 998 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:21, September 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, looks like future Pabuk might explode into something powerful. If this doesn't threaten any land, then we can root for it to become as strong as it wants! :D <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 01:32, September 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Conditions are not favorable for that kind of development.Allanjeffs 06:04, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Pabuk
The JTWC has classified this system as a tropical depression and numbered it 19W. Since then, it has strengthened to a 40 knot (45 mph, 75 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) tropical storm with gusts of 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h). In addition, the JMA has upgraded this depression to a tropical storm and named it Pabuk, a name submitted by the Lao PDR and is a reference to a big fresh water fish in the Mekong River. Also, per the JMA, Pabuk's winds are at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained), and its pressure is at 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg). Both the JMA and JTWC are somewhat excited with this storm. The JMA takes it to 65 knots (75 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /970 mbar (hPa), and the JTWC takes it to 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /85 knot (100 mph) gusts. Hopefully, Pabuk does become at least a weak typhoon per the JMA. Admist the 20 total tropical storms so far this year in the WPAC, only three (Soulik, Utor, and Usagi) have officially become typhoons. Let's make that 20-4 (TS-TY) soon! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:22, September 21, 2013 (UTC)

Yes! Pabuk is here! I hope we will see a typhoon out of this. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 18:02, September 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Due to it's large, broad nature, it actually might only become a cat 1 or 2 storm, though I'm hoping for a cat. 3 or more from this, knowing it'll be a fishspinner. Ryan1000 00:01, September 22, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Pabuk
Per the JMA, Pabuk has intensified to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h, 25 m/s) (10-minute sustained winds) /985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg), making it a severe tropical storm. Also, the JTWC now estimates Pabuk's peak to be 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h, 25 m/s) (1-minute sustained), and its gusts to be 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). The JMA takes Pabuk to 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute sustained winds) /960 mbar (hPa), and the JTWC takes this system to 75 knots (85 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) /90 knot (105 mph) gusts. If the forecasts pan out to be true - Pabuk will continue its curse of officially attaining typhoon intensity (It was TY/C2 storm in 2001 and a TY/C1 storm in 2007). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:54, September 22, 2013 (UTC)

Pabuk will certainly become a typhoon. I'm hoping for at least a cat 3 out of this (although it probably won't get that strong), since it will just be a fishspinner. Since it isn't going to affect land, we can root for it to become as strong as it can! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:58, September 22, 2013 (UTC)

Pabuk's winds remain the same per both the JMA and the JTWC, but its pressure has fallen slightly to 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:30, September 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now at 55 kts/970 mbar per JMA and 60 kts per JTWC. The JMA has lowered their prediction to Pabuk becoming a minimal typhoon at the very end of the forecast period, but JTWC predicts a typhoon soon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 07:31, September 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * No change in strength reported from the JMA, but the JTWC now has Pabuk as a 65-knot typhoon, the seventh of the year by their standards. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:10, September 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * No longer forecast to become a typhoon by the JMA :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:01, September 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * The wpac really has been lacking majors the problem with this one was the subtropical characteristics it had.Allanjeffs 21:31, September 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * I still hope that this can become a typhoon by JMA's standards. C'mon, Pabuk! Don't give up yet. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 21:43, September 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pabuk has a slight chance of becoming a typhoon, but I am beginning to doubt it will. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:21, September 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * It has become one according to JTWC, but JMA keeps it a severe TS. Ryan1000 15:20, September 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * The official one is the JMA the JWTC don't count for final.Allanjeffs 15:27, September 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah I know, I just hope JMA upgrades it soon. Ryan1000 18:54, September 24, 2013 (UTC)

Pabuk is pulling a last-minute stint of intensification, folks! The JMA still has Pabuk as a severe tropical storm, but has increased its estimated strength to 60 kts/970 mbar. The JTWC reports that Pabuk is an 85-knot Category 2 typhoon. I'd be surprised if the JMA doesn't upgrade Pabuk at this point; only a select handful of storms have reached Category 2 intensity by JTWC standards without ever being upgraded by the JMA, Bebinca '00 and Noguri '02 being examples. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:12, September 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Add Frankie '96 to the examples. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:44, September 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Pabuk is so close! 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) (10-minute sustained) /970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg) per the JMA! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:23, September 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now at 90 kts per JTWC, but the JMA still hasn't declared Pabuk a typhoon. Are they trying to make the year end with a record low number of typhoons or something? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:38, September 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * JMA, does that thing in the upper-right look like a tropical storm to you? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:18, September 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pabuk is down to 80 kts per the JTWC; we ain't gonna see a JMA typhoon here. Without wanting to offend anyone, all I can say is this. We've had only three official typhoons out of 20 storms. Pabuk damn well should've made four. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:55, September 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * What the hell, JMA? It was a typhoon and you know it. All I can say is this and this (no offense intended). I was really hoping for the 4th official typhoon of the season, but now it's weakening? If we continue at current pace, we might have a record low number of typhoons to end the year with... <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 03:50, September 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pabuk, by all means, looked like a typhoon and had an obvious eye. Maybe it will get upgraded post season. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:40, September 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe it was a typhoon but for some reason the JMA don`t and unless its upgrade at post-analysis we can do anything about it.Allanjeffs 12:46, September 26, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Pabuk
Farewell, Pabuk. Hopefully the JMA will smarten up and upgrade you in post-analysis. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:48, September 27, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Another one, over open waters atm. Ryan1000 16:07, September 25, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Wutip (Paolo)
The JTWC has initiated advisories on this depression and numbered it 20W. Since then, it has become a tropical storm with winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute winds) /50 knot (60 mph, 95 km/h) gusts. On the JMA side, they now have upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Wutip. Wutip is a name submitted by Macao and it means "butterfly". In regards to the system, the JMA has its winds at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and its pressure at 1000 mbar (29.53 inHg). Wutip should not get very strong per the JMA, which takes it to 45 knots (50 mph) (10-minute sustained) /994 mbar (hPa), but the JTWC takes it to 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute sustained) /85 knot (100 mph) gusts. In addition, PAGASA has classified this storm as Tropical Storm Paolo. With Paolo's christening, all three of our replacement PAGASA names from 2009 (Fabian, Odette, and Paolo) have seen their debuts. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:12, September 27, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
There are enough storms. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:55, September 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * All - 10% - Nothing seems to be worth retiring this year. (Except Labuyo, Usagi [Although it still sucked])

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions:

JMA:
 * 1) Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all.
 * 2) Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not.
 * 3) Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths.
 * 4) Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi.
 * 5) Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 6) Rumbia - 5% - Fifty-five deaths, along with $1.25 million (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca an unlikely retirement candidate. Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * 7) Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good.
 * 8) Cimaron - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported.
 * 9) Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been.
 * 10) Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it will be bad at all for Vietnam.
 * 11) Utor - 40% - Utor could have been so much worse than it really was. Looking at a super typhoon explode so close to the Philippines was just unreal. The Philippines have quite the road to recovery and southern China was hit pretty good as well. However, despite the ugly $21 million (2013 USD) in damage, the eight deaths lowers my percentage significantly. If Utor had caused Bopha or Washi-like fatality totals, we could be looking at a typhoon with an 80% chance of retirement.
 * 12) Trami - 3% - Trami did cause 18 fatalities and property losses of $1.83 million (2013 USD). It also has caused serious flooding in China and the Philippines. Fortunately, most of those regions were in a drought, so there was some benefit from the storm.
 * 13) Kong-rey - 1% - Despite the two deaths reported from Kong-rey, I doubt it will be remembered.
 * 14) Yutu - 0% - Yutu was nothing more than a Western Pacific Gaston or Jose.
 * 15) Toraji - 0.5% - Toraji was not significantly bad for Japan or Taiwan.
 * 16) Man-yi - 0.5% - Only one fatality was reported from Man-yi, and that does not make it a retirement nominee at all.
 * 17) Usagi - 10% - Hong Kong came so close to getting nailed here. Luckily, Usagi collapsed before it could do so. However, the 33 deaths and $14.7 million (2013 USD) in damage will make it a minor retiree candidate.
 * 18) Pabuk - TBA - Still Active

PAGASA:
 * 1) Auring - 0.1% - No.
 * 2) Bising - 0% - No way.
 * 3) Crising - 2% - Not really.
 * 4) Dante - 0% - No way.
 * 5) Emong - 0.05% - No.
 * 6) Fabian - 0% - No way.
 * 7) Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it.
 * 8) Huaning - 0% - No.
 * 9) Isang - 0.01% - No.
 * 10) Jolina - 0.05% - No.
 * 11) Kiko - 0.05% - No.
 * 12) Labuyo - 50% - Maybe, but I will not guarantee it.
 * 13) Maring - 0.5% - No.
 * 14) Nando - 0.01% - No.
 * 15) Odette - 0.5% - Not really.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Might as well make mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Those are mine for now. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - <1% - Not happening.
 * Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha.
 * Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan.
 * Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this.
 * Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area.
 * Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse.
 * Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse.
 * Jebi - 8% - Meh.
 * Mangkhut - 10% - Not expected to be too bad.
 * Utor - 65% - Caused lots of damage over parts of Luzon, China got off better though.
 * Trami - 15% - It contributed to an already severe flood problem in China, hopefully it doesn't get much worse.
 * Kong-Rey - 15% - Some flooding, but nothing significant.
 * Yutu - 0% - Do it again! I wasn't looking.
 * Toraji - 5% - Some flooding in Japan, but likely not retirement-worthy.
 * Man-Yi - 3% - Damage in Japan wasn't too severe.
 * Usagi - 15% - Some damage and deaths, but like Utor, Hong Kong escaped the worst of the storm's fury.
 * Pabuk - ?? - Still active, but likely to be a fish.
 * Auring - 1% - Not enough.
 * Bising - 0% - Seriously?
 * Crising - 4% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening.
 * Fabian - 0% - What?
 * Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen.
 * Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines.
 * Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines.
 * Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands.
 * Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines.
 * Labuyo - 100% - Has been retired.
 * Maring - 2% - Mostly missed the islands.
 * Nando - ~0% - No real impacts to the islands.
 * Odette - <5% - It'll probably miss Luzon.

Here's my predictions:

JMA names
 * Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough.
 * Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement.
 * Yagi - 0% - Failure.
 * Leepi - 0% - No way.
 * Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it.
 * Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse.
 * Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so.
 * Jebi - 0.5% - Nope.
 * Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it.
 * Utor - 55% - Caused lots of destruction in the Philippines and China. I think we have the first serious retirement candidate!
 * Trami - 10% - It did cause some damage and deaths, but I don't think it is going.
 * Kong-rey - 2% - Probably not.
 * Yutu - 0% - Nothing.
 * Toraji - 1% - Affected Japan, but it will not be retired.
 * Man-yi - 2% - Not much damage in Japan.
 * Usagi - 20% - Hong Kong almost got devastated here. Well, at least its center missed the area and it weakened, so it wasn't nearly as bad as I expected. But it still caused plenty of damage and deaths.
 * Pabuk - ? - Still active

PAGASA names <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it.
 * Bising - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Crising - 2% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Hell no.
 * Emong - 0.1% - No.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way.
 * Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse.
 * Huaning - 0% - Nope.
 * Isang - 0.1% - Not happening.
 * Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired.
 * Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines.
 * Labuyo - Retired.
 * Maring - 0.5% - It mostly missed the Philippines.
 * Nando - 0% - No Philippine impacts.
 * Odette - ? - Still active

Labuyo has been retired due to its damage total. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:04, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

So we know that if a storm makes more than1 billion in damage and kill more than 300 lives is going to be retire.Now we know which ones are going out of the list.Allanjeffs 15:20, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not surprised it was retired, but I'm not sure if Utor itself will be retired. Sometimes a storms PAGASA name is retired but the JMA name stays, like Frank (Fengshen) in 2008, or many of the tropical storms in 2011 (except for Washi, which was retired by both PAGASA and JMA). Ryan1000 15:36, August 23, 2013 (UTC)