Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future start
Coming in slightly more than one month :D.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Betting pools
Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC)

June
Starting this...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:07, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Aoi: Southeast of Cape Verde
One of the best waves I've ever seen at this time of the year. It deserves to be a Aoi.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's in the Central Atlantic now, but near 0% on the TWO; it won't develop in the next few days. However, in a week's time, when this moves into the Western Caribbean/EPac, things could get very interesting with this wave. Ryan1000 19:11, June 6, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Remnants of Barbara
It might reform...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Also an invest.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

10% by the NHC. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Allanjeffs 05:33, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dammit! I was about to post that! XD, beat me by seconds. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  05:35, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Isn't this the remnants of Barbara? Edit: Yes it is, so why do we have a section for the AOI of Barbara remnants and the invest? :P Yqt1001 (talk) 05:36, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * :P sorry hurricane spin maybe next.Allanjeffs 08:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * I have doubts that we'll see Barbara make a comeback, but it' s possible nontheless. Nothing else to really watch. The two rescent invests in the NIO were duds. This may be the only thing to watch for the time being. Ryan1000 12:50, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * It may be Andrea not Barbara,Ryan the circulation of Barbara was killed.Allanjeffs 17:27, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 0% its down and out.Allanjeffs 00:25, June 2, 2013 (UTC)

Aoi: Northwest Caribbean
Back up to 10% now. It is over the northwestern Caribbean. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, June 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * I know, it would be Andrea Allan, but what I meant was I doubt the remnants of Barbara will redevelop either way. It's over a hostile environment and NHC doesn't see much coming from this. Neither do most of the models. The rest of the world is also pretty quiet for the time being. Ryan1000 15:26, June 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Oh okay Ryan bte 90L this is a new AOI it will be declare 91L pretty soon so we should make a new heading I am talking about the aoi in the NW Caribbean.Allanjeffs 21:10, June 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 20% 91L would be pretty soon with us.Allanjeffs 00:29, June 3, 2013 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Yes, 91L! Basically the remnants of Barbara + a remnant of a front + monsoonal gyre gives us this 20% invest. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:47, June 3, 2013 (UTC)

The remnants of Barbara were 90L and they came ashore to Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:16, June 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this is a different system altogether. I wouldn't expect more than a minimal TS from this, but some models are hyper enough to bring this up to a hurricane before hitting Florida. I doubt that will happen though. Some of the models even take this west to Mexico. Reminds me a bit of Debby last year and her initial track forecast to Texas from the Euro, but GFS took it to Florida and that's where she really went. Very interesting, and the season has barely begun. Ryan1000 17:20, June 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 30%. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:51, June 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Woo, it actually looks a lot better now. Andrea could very well come from this. Ryan1000 00:02, June 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Orange it is would probably be a td or Andrea hopefully want to tach the first name of the list the Eastern Pacific is ahead of us and I hate that fact lol.Allanjeffs 17:47, June 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * 40% it is we may see Andrea tomorrow guys.Allanjeffs 17:47, June 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not surprised EPac is ahead, for this time of year, it's typical. And yes, now 40% and we could very well see Andrea soon. Ryan1000 21:08, June 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * A lot better organized as of 1am, and would not be surprised if this got bumped up to 50% or pherhaps red by 2am TWO. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  04:48, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * We may get td 1 today and ts Andrea soon after.Allanjeffs 12:57, June 5, 2013 (UTC)

Recon is flying into it soon. Will be interesting to see what it finds. Yqt1001 (talk) 16:26, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * 60%! First code red of 2013 ATL! Recon is getting very close to the supposed center. Let's see what they find. Yqt1001 (talk) 19:35, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope it forms!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:39, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * The game is about to begin with td 1 or ts Andrea.Allanjeffs 19:42, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * If classified is going straight to Andrea.AL, 91, 2013060518,, BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, DB,.Allanjeffs 20:00, June 5, 2013 (UTC)

Hilariously, this system is poorly organized and the enviornmental conditions are not conductive for significant development. I believe this invest might become a tropical depression and nothing more. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:26, June 5, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew its impossible that they classified iy as a td now because they already found winds of ts they would probably go 40 or 45 its going straight to Andrea.Allanjeffs 21:29, June 5, 2013 (UTC)

We have Andrea as expect-AL, 01, 2013060518,, BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M, the first of the season.21:29, June 5, 2013 (UTC)Allanjeffs

Tropical Storm Andrea
She is here. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN Allanjeffs 21:33, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1-0-0 Recon found a very broad center of circulation. Clearly only named at this time because of its proximity to land. Yqt1001 (talk) 21:38, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not really it says a well-defined circulation if it was close to land or not it would still have been name,btw I have seen worse ts being named like Danny and Henri in 2009 and Jose in 2011 and they were not close to land.Allanjeffs 21:49, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fcst/advisory is out. 35 kt, 1002 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 21:59, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Welcome to the (official) start of the 2013 season! I don't expect Andrea to do much, Florida will reccieve some welcome rainfall but this won't be anything severe. Pretty early start to the 2013 season, but we likely have worse to come. This is also the first tropical storm Andrea to exist (the 2007 Andrea was subtropical). Ryan1000 01:38, June 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 45mph might become a 60 or 65mph ts if it continues at this pace.Allanjeffs 07:03, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Up to 60mph looks like I was correct with these system.Allanjeffs 09:07, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Up to 65mph it was possible she was a 70mph or 75 when she looks her best.Allanjeffs 19:03, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not gonna get stronger; she will likely only be a re-Alberto (2006) for the region and not cause too many problems. She spawned some tornadoes but they didn't do any serious damage. Andrea almost became a hurricane though; I acknowledge her for that. Ryan1000 19:11, June 6, 2013 (UTC)