Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season/Ernesto

99L.INVEST

 * this one is at 20% and looks very promising I say that this could be Ernesto at the near future we need to pay close attention too.Allanjeffs 14:12, July 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not totally sure if this will develop, but if it does I'm thinking it will move into the southern Caribbean and strengthen. The HPC keeps a high pressure center near the west coast of Florida so I'm sure that it will track either into Central America or make it into the Gulf of Mexico. The wave before is kind of impressive, but I think the low after this one will have the highest likelihood of becoming something. Keeping a close eye on this because I'm spending a week in Galveston for vacation next week. Supportstorm (talk) 10:38, July 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * The models have a good spread on this one. One idea is that the storm will head toward the southern parts of the Caribbean, where it will likely be torn apart my the impressive shear and tradewinds and potentially re-develop in the Gulf. Then there's another idea that it'll head more north, into the Virgin Islands. The latter idea has more strength to it. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 17:50, July 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * SHIPS sees a hurricane in the long run...worth watching, but i'm not convinced it will explode in the long run. Wind shear is not favorable in the Caribbean, and neither is it where it is right now. I think it will likely become something in the GOM in the long run, but not now. The heart of the season is still yet to come. Sometimes we see storms blow up in late July/early August (a great example being Allen, but the Caribbean was really lucky from him). We'll have to wait and see. GFS takes this running straightforward through the Caribbean, but not as a well-organized storm. The ECMWF (euro) model doesn't really do much at all with this. Ryan1000 18:09, July 30, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 30%.Cyclone10E-Mail 17:57, July 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto is coming...likely only going to be a TS, maybe a hurricane as SHIPS still indicates, but the season is indeed starting to ramp up. Ryan1000 19:40, July 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Awesome. If it does make it to the Gulf of Mexico during my stay I'll upload some images. Supportstorm (talk) 19:48, July 31, 2012 (UTC)

Storms like this really make me nervous. The models take it into the Caribbean and steadily strengthen it. This is definitely one to watch. The Ivan-like track forecast deep into the Caribbean really concerns me. -- SkyFury 22:03, July 31, 2012 (UTC)

I'd be very surprised if it pulls an Allen, let alone an Ivan (regarding intensity, not path). The conditions in the Caribbean aren't completely favorable for intensification, and there is shear in this storm's way. It won't bomb out over the next few days, but a TS seems very possible with this storm, now that we have an orange circle with it. This wave kind of reminds me of the last Ernesto of late August 2006, in terms of both future intensity and track. If I had to make a forecast path for 99L, I would take it across the Caribbean, then northwest towards the GOM (by then potentially a C1 hurricane), and I don't know what will happen after that. There are too many factors that far out. For all we know, the AOI currently over the northern lesser antillies could shear this up before anything big happens with 99L. Ryan1000 22:54, July 31, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now up to 50%. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:41, July 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep, we're gonna see Ernesto. And at roughly the same time we got Emily last year. I don't expect it to get past 65 mph until it reaches the western Caribbean. By then things could be very ominous with this storm. Ryan1000 00:04, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * This looks to be poise to be a hurricane the Caribbean is becoming favorable for intensification to occur.Allanjeffs 01:53, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Code red! 60% for the next 48 hours. However, 99L is undergoing some shear as we speak, and it'll probrably be down to 50 or 40% soon. It'll probrably become named when it reaches the lesser antillies and a hurricane when it reaches the greater antillies. Ryan1000 13:44, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Currently the model consensus is expected to get to 50 kt by the time it reaches Jamaica (the shear place). The question is is how well it can fight that shear.--CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:47, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * If it can fight it good enough, we could see it becoming a hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan channel, but as I said earlier, the shear could also get a hold of this and it might never strengthen past minimal TS strength at all. Ryan1000 16:17, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I say 80% or 90% we could see a renumber tonight.Allanjeffs 16:58, August 1, 2012 (UTC)

Currently upped to 70%, but it is still fighting some shear right now. I wouldn't be surprised if it is numbered before the day is out, or sometime tomorrow morning. Ryan1000 19:46, August 1, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five
Hear ye hear ye! TD5! AL, 05, 2012080118,, BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:13, August 1, 2012 (UTC)

its td 5 now.AL, 05, 2012080118,, BEST, 0, 120N, 482W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FIVE, M you talk to soon ryan even though I agree it is fighting shear. I knew it that this would become a td today.Allanjeffs 20:13, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC has this becoming a hurricane at 120 hours. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:41, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Um, talk too soon? I said "I wouldn't be surprised if it is numbered before the day is out, or sometime tomorrow morning". Yeah, I'm not surprised it became numbered; the question is will it continue to strengthen at the rate it is now, or will the shear gain a hold of it for the next 3-4 days? I personally think that the shear will keep it in check for the next few days and eventually become a hurricane when it reaches the northwestern Caribbean. Ryan1000 22:16, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Oh, and one more thing I should say is, although most of the models are in agreement of a west-northwest path through the Caribbean towards Jamacia in the next 5 days, there is currently no consensus on TD 5's future intensity. The most reliable of all the models (ECMWF) sees a strong band of wind shear coming down on this in the next few days and they kill it off by Saturday. But the GFS thinks the shear will stay north of it and they keep it steadily strengthening, like NHC says. The other models are all over the place on the strength of this storm. As I said earlier, the question isn't where is it going, but how strong will it be along the way. Ryan1000 22:36, August 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * When I mean you talk to soon I mean that you write minutes before renumber if you had write after you could have been the first to write about td 5 and i agree for the near term td 5 will be affect by shear.Allanjeffs 00:45, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, at least I didn't say "no, it has no chance of becoming numbered later today". But anyways, the upper greater antillies (particularly Jamacia) should watch out for this storm. By then it could be a hurricane. And after that, I'm still not sure. Ryan1000 01:02, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * I expect this to become C2 Hurricane Ernesto. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:36, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Even with a bad initialization, the GFS continues with a strong cyclone in the West Caribbean. Looks like at this time its another battle between the Euro and the GFS. However it looks like Ernesto will reach favourable conditions no matter what in the WCarb and could become something to watch later on! Yqt1001 (talk) 04:43, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Well, that depends. NHC updated their intensity forecast just rescently and they don't expect it to be a hurricane when it reaches the western Caribbean anymore. Surprisingly, they're actually more generous than the other models are, which keep it weak until it does reach the western Caribbean. NHC keeps it slowly but surely strengthening, while the other models think the shear will keep it in check for a while. We'll have to wait and see how well TD 5 fares in the midst of all the shear that's out there. GFS forecasted Debby right, but Debby was an almost clueless storm to forecast. Ryan1000 13:17, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

It probably be upgrade to ts Ernesto at the 5pm advisory this will probably be a hurricane in the caribbean if shear doesn`t affect it.Allanjeffs 17:46, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

The key word, of course, being "if". I think it will be sheared a bit while it's in the Caribbean, which is why I wouldn't go past category 1 intensity when it reaches the westernmost islands. After that, though, it will be out of unfavorable conditions and it could explode in the GOM. And yeah, I wouldn't at all be surprised if it is upgraded later today. NHC thinks it won't be upgraded until after it passes the islands, but they could be wrong. They also only put up watches for the lessers, though I would make those warnings if I were them. Ryan1000 17:52, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ernesto
We have ts Ernesto the 5th of the season.AL, 05, 2012080218,, BEST, 0, 128N, 556W, 40, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 100, 30, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERNESTO , M,Allanjeffs 20:06, August 2, 2012 (UTC)

Yep.--Cyclone10E-Mail 20:18, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * While it has dry air trying to slow it down right now, Ernesto is completely different than yesterday. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:17, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now I know that this storm is way out there, but is there any chance that this thing could make landfall on the Texas coast? Most models I've seen have Ernesto heading into Central America and impacting Mexico. The NHC, so far, has Ernesto heading into the Yucatan and emerging out into the GOM. Climatologically speaking, most storms that take this path do end up in the northwestern gulf states. Supportstorm (talk) 21:07, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Straight to 50mph we may also need to watch near Africa. that tw looks suspiciousAllanjeffs 21:12, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * @Suportstorm:It might hit the Texas coast, but not all storms do that at this time of year. Dean, which formed a little later in 2007, ended up in Mexico, along with Felix in Nicaragua, because the ridge of high pressure was stronger, keeping them further south. If the ridge stays strong with Ernesto as well, we could see it head south of Texas and hit Mexico instead. And since Ernesto looks rather weak on the sattelite imagery, the forecasts from GFS and the euro model aren't too unlikely. The ECMWF takes it straight into Honduras as a very weak TS while GFS does the same for Mexico. I wouldn't say the U.S. is in Ernesto's sights right now. The only model that takes Ernesto up to a hurricane and into the greater antillies is the HWRF, which is what the NHC is basing their forecast off of. However, given Ernesto's sattelite appearance, that seems too agressive if you ask me. Ryan1000 23:59, August 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Thanks Ryan, it is difficult to completely tell where it's going. The GFS, like you said, takes it into Mexico [1], but many other models are suggesting it will head into the Gulf of Mexico in a nearly consistent path [2]. What are the most consistent weather models? Supportstorm (talk) 00:39, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, Supportstorm, the most reliable of all the models NHC uses is the euro (ECMWF) model. Though that model, in the case of Ernesto, is very underwhelmed by him. The euro model only sees it heading into Honduras as a weak tropical storm. GFS also isn't too generous, and they're probrably the second most reliable model NHC uses. The HWRF is also pretty reliable, but they haven't always been accurate in intensity forecasting. You can see some of the reliable models on this model map from Wunderground. You can see the GFS, Euro, HWRF, RUC, and NAM models there, and also look at other historical weather facts(note:GFS is the model currently shown). Ryan1000 01:38, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Ernesto getting a huge bout of convection as it nears the islands. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:17, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Thank you for explaining it to me. I am relatively new at using models so it's great to have that option in tracking hurricanes. On another note, yeah it does looks like Ernesto is gaining some convection near it's center. Supportstorm (talk) 02:49, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * This storm really scares me. Wind shear has been dropping like a stone across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, and it's got 20 kts of westerly shear running over it right now and winds just jumped 10 kts in six hours. If the forecast track holds and Ernesto reaches the western Caribbean with minimal land interaction, we're in trouble. And bear in mind, the stronger Ernesto gets, the harder it'll take the break in the ridge. Either way, I don't like it. This time next week, we could have a very dangerous hurricane headed for the Gulf Coast. The next 7-10 days are gonna be very interesting. And Ryan, I trust the GFS a whole lot more than I trust the ECMWF. For the past two years, GFS has been money. I'm sure not buying the ECMWF solution now. It's the only major model that kills this thing. -- SkyFury 06:14, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * If the GFS is the model to use then I'm a bit concerned. It has changed quiet a bit from yesterday, most of the plots now take it into the GOM, and very few into Mexico like it previously did. Plus the model intensity are getting stronger. Supportstorm (talk) 11:10, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, you have the right to your opinion Eric, and I don't blame you. ECMWF is too unenthusiastic with Ernesto. If the current NHC track holds true, I think Ernesto could, in the long run, threaten parts of Texas, possibly the Houston area. Some parts of Galveston and Gilchrist are still in ruins after Ike almost 4 years ago. I think it'll peak at about 115-120 mph in the gulf, but if it RI's quickly enough, we could see a 135-140 mph storm. Ernesto isn't your typical weak TS either. It may not look very well organized, but it fought a trainload of shear from a tropical upper trophospheric trough near the lesser antillies and it still became a named storm. That's impressive if you ask me. It was rescently downed to 45 mph, but it's still becoming better organized despite that wind shear and the worst of Ernesto's struggles are probrably over by now. From here on out, things are gonna go downhill. Rapidly downhill. Ryan1000 11:57, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Update, back up to 50 mph now. NHC's more convinced the northward turn will happen in the western Caribbean now, and so are the other models (well, except the Euro). The million dollar question is where will it go in the GOM. Which state will it hit? And where it hits, how strong will Ernesto be by then? Ryan1000 18:25, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Just spent 20 mins writing a post and the entire thing was erased when there was an edit conflict. My post was not in the box it was supposed to be in, it just magically disappeared. God I hate this damn page. Anyway. The GFS keeps wanting to weaken it in the central Caribbean before kinda sorta restrengthening it in the western Caribbean and keeping it south. I'm just not buying that solution. The statistical models in general have been very underwhelmed with this storm. The ECMWF no longer dissipates the storm but it keeps a very strong ridge and runs it into Belize. That's a more plausible solution and global models have diverged on how strong the ridge is gonna be. If the dynamical models are right, we could be in serious trouble. The GFDL seems to be lowballing the intensity a little bit and has a very easterly track. That seems like an unrealistic solution at this point. The HWRF however, brings Ernie right through the Yucatan Channel as a Category 2 hurricane, headed for Louisiana. Things would get ugly quick if that happens. The track and any possible land interaction all depends on how strong that ridge is. -- SkyFury 18:54, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * The strongest model with Ernesto is right now LGEM which takes Ernesto into category 3 status. Also a lot of the models are looking at some sort of quick strengthening event at about 108 hours. Also looks like the models have shifted up north to an area between Chetumal, Belize to even Cuba. I know its 50 mph, but sheesh, at first glance it looks like an open wave. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:21, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry about the page Eric. It's deleted some of my posts too. And yeah, I'm not convinced it will stay weak and run into Central America. I just get the unfortunate feeling it'll turn towards the north and towards the gulf coast as a strong major hurricane. The environment in the Caribbean is just way too favorable for it to remain a weak TS all the way through. How strong the ridge stays is important to determining it's track, but it's intensity isn't going to be low. The stronger it gets, the more likely it is to barrel northward towards the GOM. It's track is still disputable once it gets in the GOM, and although I currently think Texas/Louisiana are the main states in question, everyone from Florida to Texas needs to be on alert from Ernesto. I have a very bad feeling about this storm. Ryan1000 20:48, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto is getting a nice CDO burst... now its looking the part of a strong tropical storm, and not a wave. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:08, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * I agree, Ryan. The global model solutions just don't seem realistic. The circulation is well defined and the storm is getting better organized and shear is on the decline. I see no reason why it would simply dissipate. The current shear has been somewhat stubborn and will probably keep it from strengthening too much, but I still think it's gonna be about a high end category 1/low end category 2 by the time it reaches the Yucatan Channel. If the shear persists a little more than forecast, it could be weaker, but I think the shear is gonna drop off by the time it reaches the Gulf, where I think it could get as strong as a category 3. We'll see. -- SkyFury 22:18, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think the reason why they think it will run into Central America is because of it's forward speed, over 20 mph at this moment. Little Ernie here is moving so fast he'll be south of Jamacia by midday sunday. But by then I expect it to be a strong TS or weak hurricane. And given the conditions in the western Caribbean, and Ernesto's small size, I also wouldn't be surprised if he rapidly intensifies there. Also, by then, I expect it's forward speed to slow down significantly, enough so it can turn northward and into the GOM. Not good news if that happens, but it's very probable. I don't blame the global models for their (underwhelming) forecasts though. Eric, if that wind shear persists for just one more day, he'll still be moving at over 20 mph. That's such a fast forward speed, Ernsto won't get a chance to turn northward and he will run into Central America like the Euro model earlier indicated. The thing is though, I just can't see that happening. The shear is dying away as we speak. By tomorrow, I expect the shear to be completely gone (or almost completely gone) and expect Ernesto to be a strong, well organized tropical storm with 60-65 mph winds, and by Sunday or Monday, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a hurricane on our hands. I still can't trust some of the models though. They're being way too unenthusiastic with a storm that's moving into near-perfect conditions, and strengthening as we speak. Ryan1000 22:40, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Latest sattelite imagery isn't looking pretty for us. Ernesto got a lot better organized. Hurricane status actually might not be out of the question for later today, if it continues to organize. Ryan1000 03:40, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto weakened despite being well-organized... 50 mph, 1008 mbar. Awfully high pressure for a moderate tropical storm, isn't it? --HurricaneMaker99 14:55, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I don't think that the Hurricane Hunters are collecting good data right now. The storm is obviously nearing hurricane strength and the fact that it is weaker than our newly formed storm Florence is not right Supportstorm (talk) 16:59, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Ernesto is a completely different storm from its weak circulation/tropical wave appearance that it garnered the last few days. And yeah, I don't think 1008 mbar 50 mph TS (most likely higher) is accurate. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 17:03, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * The atmpspheric conditions are still a little stubborn, but if there's no shear where he is, which I don't see any, he's probrably in a weak pressure gradient or something like that. However, he is slowing down to a forward speed of 18 mph and he's starting to turn north. But he won't continue weakening. That 50 mph/1008 mbar downgrade is only temporary, trust me. Ernesto will continue to intensify and I expect him to reach 60-65 mph winds before the day is out. The environment is becoming more and more favorable the farther it goes into the Caribbean. Things will go further and further downhill with Ernie when that happens.Ryan1000 17:30, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

It ingested a lot of dry air during the 45kts 1008mb recon pass. Last recon pass had 1004mb and 45kts so it's starting to restrengthen from that. ATCF says 50kts right now actually. It hasn't been improving in organization on sat at the moment though, any changes of intensity are purely recon based until something major happens again. Yqt1001 (talk) 18:32, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Ernesto is very well-organized on sattelite imagery though, and I would be surprised if he doesn't become at least a strong tropical storm before Monday (I think he'll be a hurricane sometime tomorrow). He has a powerful, well-defined structure and upper-level outflow, and he will continue to strengthen. There is virtually nothing in his way to stop him. 5-10 knots of wind shear and a little dry air are in Ernesto's way, but Ernie is large and strong enough to fight that off, and by the time he reaches the Yucatan Channel, I expect to see a cat 2 or 3 from Ernesto. Ryan1000 18:59, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Ernesto really looks good. It's IR presentation looks beautiful. It's baffling why the winds are struggling to come up. Other than a little bit of dry air, conditions seem ideal. The pressure is unbelievably high. I don't get it. Shear is going down and the storm continues to look better on satellite...but the winds and pressure aren't going anywhere. Conditions should allow Ernesto to become at least a high-end Category 1 by the time it reaches the Yucatan. I just don't understand why it's not strengthening yet. -- SkyFury 19:17, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 60mph in the ATCF files.Allanjeffs 20:11, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Aparently Ernesto wants to strengthen slowly. I mean, there's nothing to hinder it from intensifying, but it doesn't want to explode. It will get stronger in time, Eric, but maybe not now. By tomorrow evening or sometime early Monday, when Ernesto becomes a hurricane (or at least when I think it will be a hurricane), it could explode by then. But he clearly doesn't want to do it today. And yeah, by 5 pm, I expect 60 mph. By 8 or 11 pm tonight, I expect a strong 65-70 mph TS. And sometime tomorrow, here comes our second hurricane. Ryan1000 20:25, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Ernesto imo is a 70mph or cat 1 in my opinion right now I know looks can be deceiving and if it is a cat 1 Yucatan may have a cat 3 when it makes landfall Ernesto could be our first real shot of retirement of the year.Allanjeffs 22:01, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Recon just left. Finding tropical storm force winds 200miles form the center. This isn't a tropical storm anymore! Yqt1001 (talk) 22:43, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Anytime now, it'll be our season's second hurricane. And if it becomes a major in the Caribbean Allan, it might miss the Yucatan to the east and end up strengthening more in the GOM. That's bad news for the gulf coast states. Possibly by 8pm, or early tomorrow, it'll be Hurricane Ernesto. Ryan1000 23:26, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looks can be very deceiving.Allanjeffs 00:41, August 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's having another one of those convective CDO blowups again. Appears that it keeps shedding off its old layers (rainbands) and re-generating itself. So far the recon has not been very interesting, 1007 mbar low so far that wasn't even under the convection. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:19, August 5, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, looks are deceiving today. It was all pretty today, had wonderful banding a well defined mid-level eye. Recon gets there and the banding is gone, the system is decoupled and convection a mess. Yqt1001 (talk) 01:25, August 5, 2012 (UTC)

It's heading into the NW caribbean, and it turned northward today as well, so a landfall in Central Yucatan probrably isn't going to happen now. Mexico needs to keep their eyes out for Ernesto, but it should be a hurricane sometime tomorrow and turn towards Cancun/Cozumel by Monday. After that, a gulf coast landfall is most likely to happen in Texas, possibly northern Mexico. It's not under any shear at this moment, so Ernesto shouldn't at all be weakening. It'll reflare tonight and be a hurricane tomorrow. That i'm sure of. Ryan1000 02:16, August 5, 2012 (UTC)

I don't think so Ryan. Ernesto has defied everything that resembles common sense. Conditions are ideal. The water is juicy warm, outflow is beautifully well established, and shear is low. The only negative factor that I can see is possibly a little bit of dry air to the west of the storm, but even that doesn't seem to explain the storms inability to strengthen. I just don't get it. Unless trends change drastically, Ernesto will really struggle to reach hurricane strength. Sometimes storms really give me a headache. -- SkyFury 03:23, August 5, 2012 (UTC)

Trade winds are what aren`t giving Ernesto roomn to intensify I just want to say that trade are different from upper level winds if someone ask because I know upper level winds are ideal but trades aren`t.Allanjeffs 03:48, August 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * I kind of agree with Ryan in that the storm is tracking more northward than before. Very South Texas might be in the path, maybe North Mexico. Of course this storm has been a challenge to track as it has done the opposite of forecast and that it has not been responding to the superb conditions it's in, so anything is possible. I've been in Galveston the last two days and the weather is perfect. That high pressure is doing it's job and is likely to push this storm south of my area which is great for the rest of my vacation. :) Supportstorm (talk) 03:53, August 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm still not convinced it's too late to become a hurricane, but if Ernesto keeps staying weak like it has been, I wouldn't be surprised if it just runs into Mexico as a TS and does nothing but bring some rainfall there. I'm not ruling it out just yet. If it doesn't change in intensity anytime later today, then i'll be convinced it won't be a hurricane, and will die, but I still think it has a chance to strengthen. It's currently at 60 mph, but the pressure has somehow risen again, up to 1007 mbars (by comparison, Florence has the same winds but at 1000 mbars). It's also storming WNW at 22 mph and at this rate it will probrably end up near Cancun in the next two days. But it's just staying too weak, like most of the storms of last year's hurricane season. And if it stays that way, then it might just breeze into Mexico and bring some rainfall. I'm not completely buying that yet though. We'll just have to wait and see. Ryan1000 05:05, August 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ugh, I take that back. Ernesto has weakened yet again down to 50 mph. I highly doubt he'll reach hurricane strength now. He'll probrably run straight into Northern Honduras, Belize, or the Chentumal area in Mexico, and then hit Mexico's mainland as a minor tropical storm. I'm really confused about this storm. It had the potential to be a RI'ng hurricane at this moment (and it should have, given it's environment) but instead it remained a weak, pissy little storm. Now i'm not convinced he'll do much of anything other than bring some rainfall. It looks like Ernesto won't be such a bad storm overall. Ryan1000 13:37, August 5, 2012 (UTC)

Apparently Ernesto never exceeded 50 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 14:17, August 5, 2012 (UTC)

I wouldn't say Ernesto was a failure, but it was underwhelming. I expected to see a much bigger storm from him. Oh well. Ryan1000 15:09, August 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * Sigh... Ernesto fooled us the whole way thru with a awkward core. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 17:18, August 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. Ernesto could still become a hurricane once he reaches the GOM/BOC, but I wouldn't count on anything higher than a Cat 1 at this point. --HurricaneMaker99 17:27, August 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not looking too likely at this point, HM99. Ernesto may be in a somewhat favorable environment, but it hasn't organized at all today. Yesterday he sure looked like a hurricane but his center of circulation got displaced from the convection by more dry air to it's west. It's not a very well-organized storm now and I highly doubt he'll become a hurricane in the Caribbean. I think he'll most likely make landfall in the Yucatan at the intensity he is at now, weaken to a TD overland, and restrengthen to a TS in the GOM before hitting Mexico as a weak to moderate TS, not much stronger than he is now. He was a very troublesome storm to forecast. I really thought he would have been a stronger hurricane heading towards the GOM at this point, but now it looks like it won't be any worse than Harvey was last year. Ernesto had a chance to become a hurricane, but that chance is gone now. Ryan1000 21:17, August 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Actually it still have oportunity to become the 2th hurricane of the season unless it moves into Honduras.Allanjeffs 06:57, August 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * If the ATCF verifies, then Ernesto is finally strengthening. 65 mph, 994 mbar at 12z. --HurricaneMaker99 12:59, August 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto is exploding right now may become a cat 2 or 3 before landfall in Belize or Yucatan.Allanjeffs 14:29, August 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, now that's more like it. I'm not expecting it to remain weak now, but not because it's organizing, but because it slowed down significantly. This morning, I expected him to run into Honduras and die, but it seems Ernesto wants to park his ass off the coast moving at only 12 mph. The U.S. may have lucked out, but I wouldn't say that for Belize just yet. If Ernesto makes landfall in Belize as a major hurricane, it will be the first major hurricane to make landfall anywhere from the Caribbean coast since Gustav hit Cuba as a strong C4 in late August 2008, and Belize's first major since 2001's Iris (Dean hit near the border of Belize/Mexico as a C5; you could count him as well, but I consider that Mexico). Ryan1000 14:41, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Ernesto! You did it! You became vertically stacked and moved away from land! I didn't notice how small this thing was until yesterday. It's about 2W wide and 2N tall including banding. The eye, is for god sakes 8nmi wide. Pressure of moderate TS status but decent hurricane force winds. Yqt1001 (talk) 14:59, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Maybe everything we said earlier about Ernie was wrong. Well, he can't do nothing over the conditions he's in, now can he? I wouldn't rule anything out. RI seems very possible later today. It's not a hurricane yet (65 mph, 994 mbars per latest 11 am advisory), but moving at only 9 mph, he has plenty of time to do anything. Stay tuned. This storm could get real ugly real fast. Ryan1000 15:11, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Told you to not give up on Ernesto Ryan <span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">The worst thing Ernesto could do to Honduras is stalling and give us a lot of rainfall but it will probably weaken from upwelling that would be good for Yucatan and Belize there is no win with ErnestoAllanjeffs 16:04, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">I have bad feelings about him now...He looks magnificent on the latest radar and he is showing signs of rapid intensification. NHC doesn't expect a landfall until Wensday morning. That's not good. Given the conditions he's in, I wouldn't be surprised if he explodes into a monstrous major hurricane before his landfall in Belize. They better get ready for this thing. It's got an awfuly ominous look to it. Ryan1000 16:54, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">Or...maybe not. As you said earlier Allan, looks can be very decieving. Ernesto has really gotten broader with the latest sattelite imagery and it isn't as tightly wound as it was earlier today. It's much less organized now. Maybe I was right in the first place. Ernesto might not become a hurricane. Ryan1000 01:45, August 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * According to a post on Weather Underground, the Hurricane Hunters are returning surface level wind estimates of... 40 kts?! That would be down 15 kts from the last ATCF update just 2 hours ago! Ernesto, what kind of joke are you trying to pull? --HurricaneMaker99 02:18, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * "...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ERNESTO HAS NOT STRENGTHENED..." oh ho, but Ernesto's pressure dropped 1 mbar! ;) --HurricaneMaker99 02:48, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ay ay ay, what's wrong with you Ernesto? Why must you be so timid in the conditions you're in? WHY?! He's given low wind shear, bath warm water, and a very instable environment. All of those added together equal one thing: STRENGTHEN. But is he doing that? Noooooo, he's messing around in the Caribbean doing nothing with his precious time. Do something, Ernie, do something! Ryan1000 03:15, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * At least he didn't randomly weaken like I thought he was going to. Ernesto really doesn't seem to want to become a hurricane. The pressure is at 989 mbar, but the winds are still 65 mph. NHC still expects strengthening. --HurricaneMaker99 13:38, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto looks like a hurricane again, but he looked like a hurricane yesterday and the day before yet didn't strengthen to one. There is some vertical wind shear northeast of Ernesto, and looks can still be very decieving. From now, I would say he has about 12-15 hours until landfall in Belize. He may become a hurricane, but if he falls apart like he did earlier, then no, Ernie won't be a hurricane. Ryan1000 15:00, August 7, 2012 (UTC)

He did it! Recon found 70kts winds and a 984mb pressure! He should be a hurricane at the next update. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:42, August 7, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Ernesto
Finally...It'll probrably be this strong when it hits land, possibly strengthening in the GOM/BOC. He's too close to land to explode though. Ryan1000 17:56, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah... its starting to move northwestward now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:50, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ernesto should be upgrade to cat2 he looks amazing probably in post analisys.Allanjeffs 23:38, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Or it could, of course, become a C2 or stronger in the GOM/BOC. Ryan1000 23:43, August 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * I would guess the storm has about two hours or so before it makes landfall. I'm tracking the storm here with my own unofficial best track page. Supportstorm (talk) 00:59, August 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, ok, it's up to 85 mph. But it'll run ashore real soon. It'll weaken from land interaction, but likely reintensify in the GOM. Ryan1000 01:20, August 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * It actually looks better expect to be upgrade to cat 2 at post analisys when it made landfall in Mexico.Allanjeffs 07:12, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ernesto (2nd time)
Weakened to a TS some time ago while over the southern Yucatan. Made landfall on Mahahual about 12 hours ago at peak strength. Currently at 50 mph, 995 mbar, and no longer forecast to regain hurricane strength in the BOC. --HurricaneMaker99 15:12, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I wouldn't rule out a C2 upgrade when it hit the Yucatan (like Richard when it hit Belize in October 2010), but i'm not completely convinced it will be upgraded. Even so, unless it causes a trainload of flooding in Mexico, I would say it wasn't as bad as we were fearing. Furthermore, considering how often Mexico retires names, I would say Ernesto will be back in 2018. Ryan1000 17:56, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I agree Mexico will probably not retire Ernesto it didn`t retire Karl that was worse.Allanjeffs 19:30, August 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Restrengthened to 50 mph/995 mbar from 45 mph/998 mbar. Just moved into the southern BOC with the 4 pm CDT advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 20:55, August 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not going to get much stronger, and I don't think Ernesto will be a giant flood catastrophe for Mexico. It might cause some flooding in Veracruz or Hidalgo, but I don't expect to see anything retirement-worthy. Ryan1000 23:36, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

Ernesto ain't takin' his time restrengthening. 65 mph winds already! --HurricaneMaker99 02:53, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

May become a hurricane before Landfall.Allanjeffs 03:05, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Looks like it won't... :/ 60 mph and overland again. Ryan1000 18:55, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ernesto
Falling down... Ryan1000 12:28, August 10, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Erenesto
...and out.Cyclone10E-Mail 15:34, August 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Farewell, Ernesto, and good luck in 2018. Ryan1000 19:29, August 10, 2012 (UTC)