Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season

January
Ahhhhh Happy New Years fellow hurricane Wikians. It's been a really hectic last year (especially August and September), but tis a new year. Along with the new year (2008), I provide notable facts about our next name list:


 * Since naming began for male/female names in 1979, this is the only names list where every year it was used, an "L" storm was named (Lili until this year).
 * This names list always produces at least 12 named storms. Excluding storms that went un-named since 1950, 41 years had lesser activity, including a streak from 1979-1995, when the only "L" storms were ones using this list.
 * The streak of seasons with no "B" hurricanes was not broken in 2007. The last B hurricane was 99's Bret.
 * Up until this season, "Arthur" has never been used for a hurricane for four seasons straight.
 * This is the only recent names list (since 79) with no Category 5s.

Well, let's hope for a year with few, if hopefully no, deaths or damages. Jake52 My talk 09:34, 7 January 2008 (UTC)

AoI: NE of the Antilles
Whew, first AoI of the year! Anyway, the trough that has been hanging around near 25N for the past couple days has developed a very broad surface low. It's actually quite similar to Olga's origins. Anyway, the CMC, NOGAPS and UKMET have actually been forecasting something to form from this. I know, it's January, but you never know, right? 71.7.210.87 01:56, 10 January 2008 (UTC)


 * Now it's gone again. I know it's the Atlantic, but not all AoIs form into invests. WeatherROCKS89 05:04, 15 January 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Middle of nowhere
There is a vicious-looking low in the central atlantic. It's has already burrowed down to the surface, it is completely cut off from any fronts and it has a high to the west so it won't get ripped apart. I think it has a decent chance of subtropical/tropical.   -Winter123 21:36, 6 March 2008 (UTC)
 * It pretty much looks like a subtropical depression, but given from the NHC discussion the info on the low, it would be a sub-tropical storm. 211.104.188.136 08:18, 7 March 2008 (UTC)
 * What does the nhc say? Anyway I'm starting to think this is non-tropical, due to the line of clouds from the jet sream to the south feeding into this. Still it's a powerful storm and worth mention. -Winter123 12:36, 7 March 2008 (UTC)
 * They say now that it does not produce gale-force winds anymore. However, it still has a minimum pressure of 1006 mb and 30~35 mph winds. 211.104.188.152 07:16, 8 March 2008 (UTC)
 * Shear got to it. Here's the loop from peak to death. EDIT: http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gen_sat-u.cgi?region=atl_sat&yy=2008&mm=03&dd=06&hh=12&loop=yes2x2 -Winter123 17:58, 8 March 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Gulf
Models for at least the past 3 days have been showing a low developing in the NE gulf and moving over florida to the ENE. Does no one else believe this has a chance? -Winter123 23:38, 5 April 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, the low is developing as we speak... but it's totally non-tropical. I mean, there is a slight, slight chance it could make the transition, but I highly doubt it. Climatology is not on its side. undefinedundefined 22:37, 7 April 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, the models only 2 days before were wayyyyy off. The low that was forecast to close off and move over north florida, is instead moving ESE and getting sheared apart over Cuba. This is what I get for trusting the models too much, i suppose. I deserved it. -Winter123 12:27, 8 April 2008 (UTC)

Off the African Coast
OK, first off, I do not in any respect expect anything to develop from this! It's just an anomaly thats worth a mention. Anyway... There is a strong wave that just came off the coast of Africa, here. The NHC's Tropical Discussion mentions it:     VIS SAT PHOTOS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 8N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS. The ITCZ has been very hyperactive all April, and now we have this thing. The last time that I can remember such strong convection in the ITCZ this early in the year was in 2005. Hopefully not a harbinger of things to come. undefinedundefined 19:43, 8 April 2008 (UTC)
 * Please, post links that do not expire! Save the image and upload it to imageshack if needed. I do agree though, the ITCZ was very active last week, seems to have died down now tho. -Winter123 23:19, 11 April 2008 (UTC)

Countdown: 2008
The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season begins in 73 hours, 23 minutes GMT. There's already some activity in the East Pacific. -- SkyFury 22:37, 28 May 2008 (UTC)


 * What are the chances of that making it into the atlantic? it's headed that way - - Winter123 05:09, 29 May 2008 (UTC)


 * With the direction it's heading, I'd say chances are pretty slim. Those mountains are awfully daunting. However, wind shear across most of the Gulf of Mexico (where the NHC best track forecast points its remnants) is relatively light. Should the circualtion survive, conditions might be somewhat favorable for cyclogenesis. It's remnants would probably reach the Gulf sometime during the day on the 31st; the eve of the season. -- SkyFury 17:16, 29 May 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Cape Verde
Those are some friggin' intense thunderstorms associated loosely with a tropical wave in the central Atlantic. Bears watching. -- SkyFury 17:41, 29 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Actually, this wouldn't surprise me at all. The one over water at about 7.5N is holding deep convection and has probably a 25mph spin. Worth watching. It's so far south it won't recurve. I'm saving a gif image for future reference. -Winter123 18:31, 30 May 2008 (UTC)
 * No one else is watching this?? gif loop. It has a closed LLC and strong, holding convection over the center! -Winter123 17:23, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Oh, I'm watching alright. It's pretty unbelievable, really. Not only do we have waves coming off Africa with organization like waves of July/August, but the environmental conditions are really strange, also. Shear is very low (5-10 knots), there is an anticyclone over the wave, and the SST's are the most anomalously warm in the Atlantic. Will it develop further? Maybe. It does have some model support, and even though any development off the coast of Africa at this time of year is generally unheard of, a tropical depression did form around here 8 years ago near the end of June. Thats the only thing I can think off thats anywhere near similar at the moment. undefinedundefined 17:30, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * One thing that strikes me is, remember the last storm last year that moved over PR and Haiti? When that formed, the ITCZ ahead of it kind of sunk south and vanished. Same thing is happening here. -Winter123 17:46, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Dry air got it. -Winter123 18:44, 1 June 2008 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
So, Alma remnants actually did survive the crossing. Anyway, NHC doesn't think to much of it, and nor do I; it's headed straight for the Yucatan. Still, shear is only around 10-15 knots over the system, so you never know, it could become a tropical depression. Once it hits the Bay of Campeche, though, the environment isn't supposed to be as nearly conductive as it is right now. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. In any case, our first invest! undefinedundefined 00:15, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Alrighty! Looks like the season is off to a start, and I return! I can't see this system becoming anything big unless something sporadic happens or it makes a SUDDEN turn to the east back into the gulf. I can only see this thing weakening and giving the Yucatan lots of wind and rain. As you say, time will tell! - Enzo Aquarius 00:50, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * It survived the insane mountains of Central America, why can't it survive the yucatan? I think we'll get a TD1 before it gets sheared to death in the mid-gulf. -Winter123 06:12, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Well then, how come nobody discussed Cyclone Nargis, which killed 150,000 people? Or the retirement replacement names: Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor? Anyway, only the GFDL seems to put this storm close to tropical storm status, likely to wane, but you never know. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:03, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * This thing is tricky, but it's definitely giving the Yucatan a heck of a lot of rain. I doubt we'll get anything big out of this, at most, a Tropical Depression, but again, this seems unlikely. We shall see. :) - Enzo Aquarius 14:59, 31 May 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Arthur
Okay, so maybe I was wrong... Very, very strange things going on. 90L skipped the TD classification and jumped straight to TS, all while over land! Anyway, unexpectedly, here's Arthur! 24.222.149.162 17:06, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Haha, got edit conflicted when I tried to post this myself. So starts the 2008 season. --Patteroast 17:09, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * WHAT!??????????????????????!??!?!?!?!?!??!?!!?!
 * Ok i'm done. I looked at the sattelite loop when I got up and I was like hmm this is stalled like 10 miles into belize, the left side is completely dry, if it doesnt get over water soon it'll just spin to death. But its named? Friggin crazyness. (off topic: look off the coast of africa!) -Winter123 17:22, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * What the hell...last I saw this thing, it was a bundle of heavy thunderstorms spurting out of Alma's arse. It was already moving inland! The disturbance statement said nothing about impending development. Geez, I feel like a grown man who just got a few teeth knocked out by a third grader. This is the second straight year that a named storm has formed in May. That has never happened in the history of the Atlantic basin. Arthur becomes the first May tropical storm since Arlene in 1981. All of this dropped out of the sky in the space of a few hours. -- SkyFury 18:18, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Plus, the first storm since 1989 to cross from Pacific to Atlantic, and less than a dozen have done so in recorded history. -Winter123 21:56, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * WOW i was expecting ALMA to get to the Atlantic as i stated yesterday but i was not expecting for it to be called arthur.Jason Rees 19:26, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Alma's circulation died over Central America; Arthur developed from a piece of Alma that broke off and developed its own circulation. They only keep the name if it's a single circulation that remains intact the whole way through. -- SkyFury 23:25, 31 May 2008 (UTC)
 * Heh, what I get for paying attention to severe weather in the midwest rather than the Atlantic. I didn't even know anything was going on till I saw the article on CNN. Harocat 00:31, 1 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Ah, we have a roast again! I was expecting a T.D., but not a T.S. and in the GoM, not here. Jake52 02:11, 1 June 2008 (UTC)
 * It's May! I was expecting bupkiss. I'm out to Hawaii, by the way; graduation trip. I'll be back in ten days. -- SkyFury 04:17, 1 June 2008 (UTC)
 * "Arthur" is gone. But if the track sinks any further south I have no doubt it will develop in the pacific as the B storm. And then become a cat 5 and hit Hawaii XD totally kidding but man, this storm is weird. -Winter123 18:43, 1 June 2008 (UTC)
 * HAHA I called it. The center reformed offshore and it's now 91E. This storm won't die!! Now watch it loop back to the east into the atlantic again. -Winter123 04:09, 3 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Geez, this thing just won't die! One system developing a possible three storms. It's only the start of the season and we already have an odd little system abound. - Enzo Aquarius 17:51, 3 June 2008 (UTC)
 * I was totally kidding in my last post, but I may have been right. This could enter the atlantic again! If this is declared a TD today, it'll have three names. But it may even move into the Gulf of mexico and get FOUR names. It's only 3 days into the season 0_o -Winter123 18:59, 3 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Heh, we may already have a major record breaker. :P - Enzo Aquarius 02:33, 4 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Whats the longest a storm has survived over land? This is still being tracked by NRL. Whatever swirl was in the pacific has died, so now its just the remnants of arthur still sitting over land. There is a weak midlevel swirl over the Gulf of Mex. but other than that I see no signs of rotation. I think it will be dropped today. But I'm still curious what the longest is a storm has been over land and reformed. Someone feeling adventurous and want to find out? :D -Winter123 18:30, 4 June 2008 (UTC)
 * I was wrong. Still there. -Winter123 04:26, 5 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Even more records being broken? :P - Enzo Aquarius 16:15, 5 June 2008 (UTC)

Ok finally dead. Geez.-Winter123 04:40, 6 June 2008 (UTC)
 * From Maui: Winter, to attempt to answer your previously unanswered question; several storms have crossed the daunting mountains of mainland Mexico and made it to the Pacific in one piece. Fifi in 1974 is an example. It spent like 36 hours over mountain ranges. -- SkyFury 01:05, 10 June 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow! It did get 4 designations (well, sort of). It didn't get 4 names, though. (Alma-Arthur-91E-92E). Weatherlover819 04:06, 11 June 2008 (UTC)

AoI: West Carribean
There's a storm like this every year, disorganized convection in June in this exact spot organizes enough to be named but is heavily sheared and forced up the east coast. Nothing yet, but worth watching. Shear seems pretty light at the moment.-Winter123 18:49, 10 June 2008 (UTC)


 * It's actually looking pretty nice on satellite at the moment. I say it's a TD as we speak based solely on the deep convection and overall satellite presentation.


 * http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/avn.jpg
 * That image is from Oct 7, 2007. weird. Weatherlover819 23:14, 11 June 2008 (UTC)

91L INVEST (Off the NE coast of South America)
[http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/91L.INVEST/vis/geo/1km_zoom/20080611.1815.goes12.x.vis1km_high.91LINVEST.25kts-1012mb-90N-570W.100pc.jpg. Very small and very far south.] Isn't this a really odd place for the beginning of June? I have been watching this thing for the past few days but didn't think it was worth mentioning since its climatalogically unfavorable. Its about to move over land, and get sheared. I'd say .01% chance unless it can make it to west carrib. -Winter123 19:31, 11 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Why haven't they classified it TD? Wind readings are over 30 knot.24.215.70.104 00:31, 12 June 2008 (UTC)


 * It's a 20mph midlevel swirl right now and will probably have to tango with south america. But it looks favorable and development by Friday wouldn't surprise me. But I won't have access to a computer for the next 10 days so, have fun tracking! :D I'll check the plymoth state weather center archives when i get back to see what happened. -Winter123 04:52, 12 June 2008 (UTC)

AOI: Cape Verde Season starting early?
Wow it's already almost July and there hasn't been one invest. But we have activity in the E atlantic. -There is a wave coming off africa (15W) with a good rotation and storms firing only over water. Sadly not on NHC discussion yet. -Then the next wave west (35W) has a nice low level rotation as can bee seen on satellite loop. I'm surprised it is not an invest yet. NHC Discussion: "A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 11N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A BROAD MID TO LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 31W-37W." -Winter123 17:05, 28 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Ok those died but the one about to come off looks amazing and is at a low latitude. -Winter123 03:53, 29 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Just so you know, ALL the models (GFS, UKMET, CMC, ECMWF, NOGAPS) are forecasting this to develop into a depression/storm. GFS is the most aggressive, taking it all the way across the Atlantic to Florida. The other models all dissipate it in the Central Atlantic though. It's interesting to note that even Arthur didn't have this much model support. Anyway, the wave itself has a surface circulation that is over West Africa at the moment, shear is decreasing in the Cape Verde region, and the parade of waves has significantly decreased the amount of dust and increased the amount of moisture. SST's are still 1-2 degrees above normal in the area, as well. With all the model support and the conductive environment, I think I'd be more surprised NOT to see something form. undefinedundefined 20:33, 30 June 2008 (UTC)


 * Ok thank you i'm not the only one seeing this. Can anyone look at this (gif loop, expires in like 2 days) and say it DOESNT look like a tropical depression even though it barely emerged? This should be a TD by this afternoon if it stays like this. -Winter123 06:25, 1 July 2008 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
It's been invest'd, and NHC is also talking about it: A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA... ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW. THIS WAVE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. --Patteroast 11:46, 1 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Is this the first time a system has formed this far east this early? I mean come on this looks like a TD to me.-Winter123 16:19, 1 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Seems to be organizing well, with visible rotation. Wouldn't be surprised if this system, if it does, develops fast. - Enzo Aquarius 03:51, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * COME ON NHC JUST MAKE IT TD2 ALREADY. (or possibly 1 since Arthur was never declared a TD?) It looks perfect. -Winter123 04:55, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look like it has an LLCC yet. The thunderstorm activity appears pretty disorganized. This one's not there yet. NHC doesn't even have a floater on it. -- SkyFury 19:00, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Woot! Finally, after days of model agreement, an invest! The models are agreeing where this will go, but I don't know about the long term. I'm predicting cat. 2 hurricane Bertha, then a TS landfall on Nova Scotia. Season's finally getting busy! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:57, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I rarely watch the weather channel but i caught it this morning and they brought up something. The weather caster was so surprised by it she practically screamed "THAT IS SO IRONIC!".
 * "On July 1, a tropical wave emerged off of the coast of Africa. On July 3, a weak low-level circulation developed while located 500 miles south of Cape Verde. The depression moved westward, and on July 5, it strengthened into a tropical depression in the central Atlantic." - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Bertha
 * Sound familiar? If this current storm does form (and it looks very very likely) it will form in the same place, same date, and likely take a similar track because as someone said on another board theres 2 big highs over the Atlantic and this is far south.
 * But the REALLY ironic part is, this current storm will be named... BERTHA! -Winter123 04:34, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
It's officially been given Tropical Depression status. Advisory 1. The 5 day track has it strengthening to Tropical Storm by the end of today. - Salak 12:04, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Also, the model guidance now have it at 35 knots and 1006 millibars, and are also calling it Bertha. So, expect it to be official at 11:00. Anyway, Bertha is the most easterly July storm EVER, surpassing Bertha of '96, oddly. undefinedundefined 14:06, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, that IS ironic! It's similar to the 1996 Bertha, but also somewhat different. We don't know if or where it will make landfall, and if or when it will strengthen into a hurricane. This storm could persist well beyond a week and we don't know what it's going to do. Well, once again, let's see what happens! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:38, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bertha
Already! Not surprising, really. Well, let's see what it does! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:21, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's Probability tables give it more chance of being a Category 2 within 5 days than of dissipating :) Bertha could be with us for a while. - Salak 15:29, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks great but looks like a fish. Unless it hits a massive high at the end of that track it has no chance of even approaching bermuda. -Winter123 17:07, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * If it encounters little shear and can keep up its strength, Bertha could last for a bit. Long-term outlook has Bertha staying on course then curving up a bit, towards North Carolina and the Virginias. All depends on what the storm encounters over the next few days. - Enzo Aquarius 19:22, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Is it just me, or does that nrl site show Bertha's original low coming off the coast of Guinea? The models, about a week ago, predicted a weak low coming off the coast of Africa. Anyway, there should be a high (the Bermuda High!) nudging its course west, but might not be enough, and Bertha could even weaken the high and curve towards Atlantic Canada, could last quite a long time. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 02:20, 4 July 2008 (UTC)

The forecast track seems a bit further south now... - Salak 15:17, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * OMG, the track has shifted way south, the chances of impacting Bermuda have become way higher, the chances for dissapation have become way smaller, the model agreement is way worse, and the chances of becoming a hurricane in all categories have become way higher. Also, Wikipedia is mentioning how the models have predicted this way in advance. I might be exagerrating, but suddenly this storm seems to be developing into more than a fish... 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:39, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Woah. Upon checking the models, GFDL brings it up to a cat. 3 within 120 hours! CMC seems to show a cat. 1. GFDL also brings it dangerously close to Bermuda, as does HWRF but as a TS. Also, some models hint at the formation of a second storm, possibly entering the Caribbean, including GFS, which praticly dissapates Bertha. If Bermuda does get hit, it will probably be the weaker west side, but then it might hit Atlantic Canada, just as I previously predicted. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:05, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Well, well, well, the Cape Verde season's started early this year...just like the 1996 Bertha that hit North Carolina as a Category 2. This one more reminds me of 2006's Florence in location, intensity and forecast track. Bermuda look out, I see a deja-vu in your future. Bertha may not end up being as strong though, but storms like Bertha rarely fall short of 75 mph. -- SkyFury 18:28, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Track continues to shift west. Maybe North Carolina DOES need to watch this! Seems like its in a rough patch right now but once the high catches it it should move more west and intensify steadily into a hurricane. -Winter123 19:05, 4 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Still more to the west with the 5pm EDT advisory... A Carribean strike might not be out of the question if the forecast path keeps moving like this... - Salak 21:20, 4 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks on satellite that it's turned due west. So even the current track may be too far north. But time will tell. I think Northern islands, PR, Haiti, Cuba, Florida to Boston should all be keeping an eye on this. -Winter123 03:23, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow. Just wow. It's now shifted far enough south that a landfall on the Maryland area seems most likely, but everywhere from South Carolina to Massechusetts is in the dangr zone as well. The models seem to show a paradoxial connection between its intensity and forecast track: if it strengthens into a hurricane early, it will veer north and cut right into the Bermuda high, hit cold water, and weaken as a fish. If it maintains its TS status for a long time, however, the Bermuda high will be strong enough to keep its course south, and it will head west into very warm water, explode, and hit land. Looks like North Carolina does indeed need to watch this very closely! I think it will keep as a TS for the next 120 hours, and after then it should strengthen into a hurricane. There is still a great deal of uncertainty, and 25 million people remain at risk from feeling Bertha's hurricane-force winds. Even here in southern Ontario, I might need to watch this one. If it does hit the Carolina area, however, there it will hit some very warm water, warmer perhaps than any water it has encountered so far. If it hits anywhere up the coast north of New Jersey, it will abruptly weaken or turn extratropical. North Carolina may be up for some deja vu indeed... 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:33, 5 July 2008 (UTC)

Is that a H symbol that I see on the track map issued with the 11am advisory? :) Anyway, it's been revised still further to the south. Now pointing towards Bahamas, Florida, Georgia or South Carolina. Forecast Category 1 hurricane in 72 hours, uncertainty about shear after that point, hence the NHC have kept estimates below that of some models which suggest further intensification. - Salak 15:05, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I just thought I would point out that Bertha's ACE as of right now is greater than more then HALF of last years storms - and it's only a weak TS! I get the feeling that this year wont be as ACE-deficient as the last. undefinedundefined 15:34, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't like this. I don't like this one bit. Cape Verde storms always scare the hell outta me, but this one in particular. Bertha's looking at Myrtle Beach right now like a lion looks at a steak. Everyone in the Carolinas needs to be paying attention to this thing. It's looking more and more like the '96 Bertha. -- SkyFury 18:53, 5 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Ouch, I concur. Even though it's not on the same track, if Bertha reaches land, and, instead goes northwards, it could copy Hurricane Hazel from 1954 which was, as one could say, not pretty. NOAA predicts Bertha will reach hurricane status by Tuesday, so these next few days could determine Bertha's fate indeed. - Enzo Aquarius 01:17, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh, anyone looked at WeatherUnderground's historical model? The ONLY storm in that map is 1996's Bertha! What a frickin' coincidence! The storm might have formed earlier and its track farther north than Bertha of '96, but it certainly could hit North Carolina! However, a lot of models are shifting it farther east and towards Bermuda. Wait, did you say Hazel?! Oh NO!!! Please, no, anything but Hazel!! I mean, I would be okay with another Isabel, but please not Hazel! The good news, however, is that if it strengthens early, it will curve north and dissapate (and then hit England). As we all learned from 2006's Ernesto, you can't really predict a storm's course accurately for more than three days. Or who knows, maybe our scared state will weaken the storm, as with Karen, Ingrid, or Melissa. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 02:04, 6 July 2008 (UTC)

Significant weakening is occuring this evening it looks to me. There's a patch of cool water it's moving over. As if the track hasn't shifted south enough, the thing just continues to move due west and since it's weakening, will continue to do so. Puerto Rico and the islands need to watch out, and Florida all the way up to Boston. When it hits the warmer water North of Puerto Rico this could get real strong real quick. -Winter123 02:20, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * The water's only getting warmer from here... and each time I look at the latest forecast, they inch up the winds by the time the shear they're expecting strikes... if the shear doesn't show up as much as they expect, we could have our first major hurricane of the season on our hands. GFDL's showing a strengthening Cat. 3 with Bermuda in its sights (Fabian, anyone?) --Patteroast 10:15, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NOAA still predicts hurricane status for Tuesday with continuing status as a hurricane thereafter. I have a good feeling Bertha will be our first hurricane of the season. I'm also not liking this huge curve towards North Carolina and the Virginias that it being predicted (though NC needs rain?)... - Enzo Aquarius 18:04, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Whether or not it hits land is probably dependant on how fast the ridge over the Western Atlantic weakens. If it weakens slower, we could have a problem. If it weakens quicker, Bertha may turn out to sea. An upper level trough holds Bertha's fate in it's hands. If it holds, it will induce shear over the system and weaken it. If the trough weakens, then we may be looking at a major hurricane by the end of the week. -- SkyFury 19:04, 6 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Models are predicting a more substantial curve in a few days now (almost all of them are in agreement). NHC also appears to be predicting hurricane status in around 36 hours. If the storm survives the next two days and follows the current models, it may avoid NC and the Virginias and head towards the northeastern States and Atlantic Canada. Bermuda may also be facing some mighty fierce weather as well if Bertha follows what NHC is predicting. - Enzo Aquarius 00:02, 7 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC has updated their prediction to hurricane status by 8 PM tomorrow. Track has also been shifted even further north to almost be spot on with Bermuda. They may be getting hit hard in a few days time. It's looking more and more like the east coast will be spared, but greater chances for Atlantic Canada to be hit. - Enzo Aquarius 04:23, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Bertha
Latest from NHC puts Bertha as a hurricane as of advisory 17, although still reiterating that they have no idea if it'll make landfall or not. Going to be interesting either way. --Patteroast 08:57, 7 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Though if the 5 day track is accurate... um, I hope Bermuda have an eye on this. - Salak 09:19, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

From the 5am NHC forecast discussion: "WHILE A HURRICANE DOES NOT FORM EVERY YEAR IN JULY IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...IT HAS CERTAINLY HAPPENED BEFORE...INCLUDING IN 1996 WHEN ANOTHER HURRICANE BERTHA FORMED...COINCIDENTALLY ALSO ON JULY 7."

Deja vu - Isfisk 09:46, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Advisory 18: "SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT." - Salak 15:18, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Bermuda better be getting ready for Bertha soon, NHC predicts Bertha will go right by it (if not right over the island). If the models are correct, landfall in the eastern States is unlikely, but Atlantic Canada may be hit, unless it keeps curving. - Enzo Aquarius 16:20, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * NHC says it may miss Bermuda entirely. This could be fun to watch now that we don't have much to worry about in the way of damaging landfalls. -- SkyFury 17:41, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

Now Cat 3. This was unexpected. 90.184.124.108 21:41, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Bertha
Boom, major hurricane. Wow, that was fast. NHC is continually underestimating this thing. Look for a little more strengthening in the next 24 hours. I can't quite see a Cat 4 at this point, but possibly stronger than now. Bermuda, you paying attention yet? -- SkyFury 22:31, 7 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It's interesting to note that Bertha has a lower pressure than Hurricane Flossie from last year, which was 949 millibars and 140 MPH. While 948 does sound reasonable for a strong Cat 3, 115 MPH does sound a bit low. Either NHC is underestimating Bertha's winds, or overestimating its pressure. Hmm. 142.177.233.198 22:49, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * What happened to Category 2!? Yeep! - Salak 22:49, 7 July 2008 (UTC)


 * 142, it depends on the pressure gradient. That gradient is much lower in the monsoon troughs of the Western Pacific, one of the reasons most of the strongest storms in history formed there. This applies to the Atlantic too, Wilma was in a deeper pressure gradient when it broke the Atlantic intensity record. Hurricane Isidore in 2002 had a 934mb pressure with only 125 mph winds. -- SkyFury 23:25, 7 July 2008 (UTC)

I come home expecting a Category 2...but find Bertha as Category 3?! This thing is a beast! I sure hope Bermuda is starting to take notice and preparing. I see Bertha reaching Category 4, so she could hit the island hard. :S - Enzo Aquarius 03:16, 8 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Can I just say on behalf of the people of Bermuda, that we are watching this one, and we will be ready. We didn't do too badly when Fabian hit in 2003 due to the quality of Bermuda's building codes (our homes are built from stone and concrete - including the roof!) [Bermuda resident]


 * If she hits the island at all *looks at latest track, where Bermuda is barely within 5 day cone* - Salak 10:52, 8 July 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Bertha (2nd time)
Dropped to Category 2. - Salak 15:19, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * OH MY GOD SHE'S BLEEDING ALL OVER!!!!! Best of luck on her recovery tomorrow! -Dr. Tropics 16:26, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Starting to look like she'll avoid land altogether, even Bermuda. - Enzo Aquarius 16:36, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Any chance it could just get ripped to a low level swirl and miss the connection and stall? She's looking like a weak tropical storm right now. -Winter123 16:38, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * We're good, Bermuda, you can relax now. Bet the surf over there is gonna be friggin awesome though. Could restrengthen at the end of the forecast period. -- SkyFury 18:22, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Don't be so sure, I see a definitely WNW movement! Or is it my imagination? -Winter123 19:25, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Dropped to Cat 1 now i can not see this hitting bermuda though i can see Berthas rements either affecting Atlantic Canada or the UK late next weekJason Rees 21:57, 8 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I personally think Bertha's done. She'll just weaken and hit the UK as a low. - Enzo Aquarius 01:59, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Either my eyes are going bad or this is moving due west. Come on no one else sees this? -Winter123 03:38, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Might want to get those eyes checked, 'cause all I see is a weakening hurricane preparing for recurvature. From the loop, it appears the storm is going to recurve within the next day or so. Bermuda, like I said, is safe. Though, I have a feeling Bermudan surfers are going to have a field day with this one. Surf's up, man! -- SkyFury 05:58, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * 5 Day cone is swinging West again... - Salak 13:07, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC: BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING AND THE EYE APPEARS TO BE REFORMING. Not dead yet. Isfisk 16:59, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * "The report of Bertha's death was an exaggeration" Isfisk 17:02, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC said it could restrengthen, so I never considered Bertha dead. I still don't think Bermuda has much to worry about with this one. As a precautionary thing, yeah, they should pay attention but I don't think Bertha will pose a threat to the island. -- SkyFury 17:07, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I really don't think it has a chance to MISS bermuda. If you look at the low level wind direction to the north of it, there is a small high pressure stretching from east of where it is, directly west to bermuda. This should direct it WNW into bermuda. They really need to prepare now. Can't trust NHC like gods. In fact I'd trust my dog at predicting where storms will move better most of the time. -Winter123 18:05, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * GASP!! Don't say that! ALL models forcast re-strengthening, and only 1/7 (GFS) don't predict cat. 2 or more! GFDL brings it to a cat.3, CMC to a cat. 4!!! CMC brings it to a cat. 4 just 300 km from Bermuda, GFDL brings it to the same distance but as a Cat. 2, giving Bermuda 60 kph winds, HWRF gives Bermuda 40 kph winds, NGP and UKMET both bring it 200 km from Bermuda, NGP at cat. 1, UKMET at cat. 2. Also, NGP predicts more strengthening after passing Bermuda, and all models predict it to affect Nova Scotia or Newfoundland. Also, 1/3 of all models predict a TD formation near the Carribbean. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:02, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, Bertha got well in a hurry. Check out the vis right now, it's a gorgeous storm. The model guidance takes the storm well east of Bermuda. Winter, since when were you trained or qualified to read weather patterns like that? Looks to me like there's a high pressure associated with a shortwave trough pushing eastward, which is (whataya know) what NHC says. What NHC is concerned about is that the trough will miss the storm and leave it adrift. If steering currents are low, then track forecasting becomes really difficult and the storm wouldn't have to drift too far from the forecast track to present big problems to Bermuda. Winter, I don't trust NHC like gods, I trust them like people who know this shit a lot better than any of us. Most of the senior forecasters there have been studying and tracking storms since your parents were in high school, if not earlier (I don't know how old you are). So I'd bite my tongue if I were you. Forecasting weather is like trying to read God's mind; it's not easy. -- SkyFury 20:54, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Who dumped the caffeine and alcohol in the Atlantic, Bertha doesn't seem to know what to do. :P I think Bermuda's going to be spared now (apart from maybe some rain and wind, it's still near the predicition cone), but, according to some models, Atlantic Canada may be Bertha's main target. - Enzo Aquarius 21:31, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm afraid the DUI laws don't apply to hurricanes ;). I'm not sure I see what you're talking about. The intensity changes have been a little wacky. It appears to be strengthening a bit right now. -- SkyFury 03:04, 10 July 2008 (UTC)

Wow, this is an insane storm. Very interesting to track this early in the season, and Bermuda isn't out of the woods yet according to the NHC. I'd trust them over any of us any day. Bob rulz 06:57, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Holy, look at CMC, mm5fsu 33 a and b. CMC predicts what looks like a cat. 5 (!), then weakening to a cat. 4 and grazing bermuda with hurricane-force winds, while both mm5fsu33 models appear to take it directly over Bermuda as a cat. 4, although they're a bit more outdated than CMC. By the way, is CMC a Canadian model? Bermuda is still in the 3-day error cone, and NHC doesn't rely on any of those three models, and it's only 1/3 of all models predicting such a scary turn. NHC seems unsure on Bertha's even approximate track beyond 3 days, and many of the models seem confused beyond that time period, some stalling Bertha, some weakening her, some strengthening her, some turning her out to sea and others turning her west. If the mm5fsu models are even close to being right, which I hope they aren't, then Bermuda needs to watch this very closely. I mean, it's only July, and this already? Anyway, most models are seriously underestimating Bertha's current  intensity, but then explode it afterwards. The good news it, NHC's current track takes it a safe distance from Bermuda, but the error cone is so wide that anywhere from Bermuda to Atlantic Canada to Europe needs to watch this storm closely. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:31, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
 * As I've been saying for days I think bermuda is still in the crosshairs. Even if it turns north like NHC still insists upon, as I've been saying I feel it's going to stall. This is due to the trough dipping down to its east, which means to the north the higher pressure is strenthening and will make it difficult for it to move to the north out to sea! -Winter123 16:58, 10 July 2008 (UTC)
 * But that doesn't mean Bermuda's gonna get its ass kicked by a CMC-ian storm. CMC is off its rocker, always has been intensity wise. Bertha's been a very unruly storm. It strengthened when it was forecast to weaken and weakened just as the conditions started to get better. It's under perfect conditions right now but not one of the models forecast it to strengthen which doesn't make any sense. NHC doesn't know what this slow down is going to do to the track and when land impacts are involved, they don't want to take any chances. Bermuda could still get brisked by this system but if it's any worse than (or even as bad as) 2006's Hurricane Florence, I'll be very surprised. -- SkyFury 00:55, 11 July 2008 (UTC)

"IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA WILL WEAKEN SOME UPON THE FINAL DEMISE OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRACT AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRENGTHENING..." An eyewall replacement cycle? But it's a Category 1, since when did Cat 1s have replacement cycles? -- SkyFury 03:13, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks like Bertha may skim Bermuda. They may be getting a 'little' rain in a couple of days. - Enzo Aquarius 03:47, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * In response to Skyfury- Today. 59.10.63.81 05:47, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks at latest forecast track* The NHC seem determined that Bertha's going to curve away... - Salak 12:54, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC says that a TS watch may be issued for Bermuda today. However, GFS has now joined with CMC, predicting a cat. 4. This makes half of all models that predict strengthening to a major hurricane within 120 hours. The models insist that if it misses that trough and the ridge weakens a little, Bertha's gonna stall and strengthen like mad. It's also expected to hit Newfoundland, with St. Pierre and Miqueldon getting TS winds according to GFDL. So, Atlantic Canada, especially Newfoundland, needs to watch this one too, as it and that French dependency may get hit with winds worse than Bermuda. Oh no, it looks like a repeat of 2007's Chantal, and Newfoundlanders in Placentia Bay are tired of the government not doing enough to clean up after Chantal, and it looks like Bertha may hit that same area again in less than a year! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:03, 11 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Tropical Storm watches have been issued for bermuda for bertha and only now is an air force plane going out Jason Rees 16:48, 11 July 2008 (UTC)

I've been saying for almost a week now it could stall, and it appears to be doing so! This is NOT a fish storm. even if you look at the models, half of them turn this to the south as soon is it passes bermuda! Come on, bermuda is not in the clear. Heck, the US isn't even in the clear. Remember Kyle? It came from hundreds of miles east of bermuda, and ended up scraping the carolinas and causing 5 million dollars in tornado damage! -Winter123 18:35, 11 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Then again, Kyle's track basically throughout it's whole life was erratic (definite Alcohol in water :P). NHC predicts tropical storm status within a few days, so Bertha's remaining storm life may be determined within the next few days as it keeps tracking northward. - Enzo Aquarius 03:50, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * But you're assuming it will CONTINUE to track northward. As it is, its moving less than 5 miles per hour and is forecast to very likely miss this shortwave trough and stall in this general area for 5 days! And the high behind the trough might strengthen so this drifts west. It could be very interesting. Just imagine if this had stalled OVERTOP of Bermuda. That'd be bad. And what's with this structure anyway? It's like it's had 2 eyes for the past 24 hours... a hurricane within a hurricane.... -Winter123 04:02, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * "LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS." *grabs surfboard* KALABUNGA!!!! Last one in's walkin' home!! WHOOOOHOO!!! *dives into the surf laughing and shouting and generally not taking the situation very seriously* -- SkyFury 04:27, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC seems to be entering 'I dunno' mode, the prediction cones are pretty close and large, but it looks like Bermuda's going to be stuck with tropical storm-like conditions off-shore for a few days. As Sky said, a surfer's paradise. :P - Enzo Aquarius 16:17, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Believe it or not, I've never so much as touched a surfboard. Bertha's weakened a bit and now NHC is predicting a sharp turn out to sea. -- SkyFury 18:34, 12 July 2008 (UTC)
 * VERY sharp turn indeed. If it returns to very warm seas, Bertha could strengthen up again... - Enzo Aquarius 03:49, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Now they say it may even turn back south! I've just stopped expecting anything from this storm now. I don't even expect the unexpected. Storms are like people; their lives have only two certainties: birth and death. Between those two, a storm is limited only by the laws of natural physics. -- SkyFury 07:30, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

Tropical storm Bertha (second time)
It's been dropped to a TS. TS warning still in effect for Bermuda, NHC no longer predicting it to restrengthen, expected to head out to sea. Unless it interacts with the frontal system and that AoI near South Carolina, I don't think it's going to do much more except maybe affect Newfoundland and Europe. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:44, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Um, have you even looked at the official track since NHC /FINALLY/ realized it was stalling? It's predicted to quickly turn east and potentially south. That's hardly "out to sea" and Canada is under no threat. -24.29.40.161 17:22, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
NRL's showing a new invest, on the border of the Carribbean, sitting on top of Martinique. --Patteroast 20:43, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, another invest in the Caribbean! Don't know where this one's going, models seem to be agreeing on the general track but not the exact track. I'm predicting, with still-limited data, but then again NHC just had a new update so I'll go check that, I'm predicting TS Christobal landfall on the Dominican Republic, then Cuba, then Cat. 1 landfall on Florida. Let's see what this one does. The oceans are still warming up, but the weason's getting active already. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:04, 2 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Heavy shear. Looks like a small thunderstorm that would form a tornado in the midwest, except moving in the opposite direction. IMO this one has a 0.000...0001% chance. -Winter123 04:51, 3 July 2008 (UTC) (I shortened your number of zeros. Sorry, the page stretching out forever was driving me nuts. :P --Patteroast 23:44, 5 July 2008 (UTC))
 * Lol suit yourself. Anyway I was right, this got nowhere near developing. Sheared to death south of puerto rico-Winter123 03:40, 9 July 2008 (UTC)
 * A 0.000...0001% chance of what? Spawning a tornado in the midwest? Its chances are probably a lot higher than that, but you never know. SHIPS brings it up to a TS within 120 hours, I think it has a chance of emerging in the Gulf, though. Let's see what it does, if anything. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:43, 3 July 2008 (UTC)
 * It practically turned to nothing overnight. This just should not have been declared.-Winter123 17:06, 3 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Central Atlantic
Some models are predicting one or two storms forming in the Central Atlantic or Caribbean, especially CMC and GFS. Let's see if they form, and if so, what they do. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:14, 12 July 2008 (UTC)


 * Form from what when where and why? Other than Bertha, there's hardly much rain to speak of anywhere in the entire basin; Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf; let alone potential unrest. -- SkyFury 07:24, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

94L. INVEST
Woot! Am I good at this, or what? Models predict it heading into the south Caribbean or Venezuela, SHIPS predicts a cat. 2. NHC has also listed it as medium-chance for development. Let's see what it does, as this I think definitely is one to watch, could become Christobal. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC)
 * Don't get so full of yourself, models predicted it at least 3 days ago. -24.29.40.161 17:23, 13 July 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off the coast of South Carolina
NHC's putting this as a low-risk for development, probably part of the frontal system and says "development is possible". If it does anything, it might hit Atlantic Canada or go into the open sea, or perhaps even create a Fujiwhara with Bertha, let's see if ti develops. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:38, 13 July 2008 (UTC)