Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.  ~ Roy25     Happy Thanksgiving Day!!!  |  🦃     23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. -  PORY GONAL  13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  04:06, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019
Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

AoI: Coast of Brazil
Here we go: "WARNING NR 196/2019 SPECIAL WARNING ISSUED AT 2000 UTC - THU - 21/MAR/2019 POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 15S038W STARTING AT 231200 UTC MOVING TO SOUTH. CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 7/9 WITH GUSTS AFFECTING AREA ECHO AND AREA DELTA NORTH OF 22S. VALID UNTIL 251200 UTC." -- Isaac829 E-Mail  17:15, March 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Both of the global models seem to be forming a weak storm there in a short while, though it will probably move southeast and out to sea. Still, it would be cool to see a south Atlantic storm again, we had a discussion about Arani in 2011 many years ago, though there have been a few weak storms that have developed since then, most recently Guara in December 2017. Ryan1000 21:08, March 23, 2019 (UTC)

90Q.INVEST
Now an invest and a tropical depression.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:49, March 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Iba
Now officially a rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic. Did you catch my words, “a rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic”? The last fully tropical storm in the SAtl was in 2010. I predict it to peak at a weak-moderate tropical storm before it weakens. What a wonderful sight!  Sandy 156   :)  17:42, March 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well well, what an interesting storm! A fishspinner in an unusual location is definitely a welcome sight after the absolute disaster that was Idai. Send Help Please  (talk) 17:46, March 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still a tropical storm, currently at 45 knots. Wow. This is very rare, considering that this storm is expected not to affect any land areas. (Coincidentally, the name "Iba" means "other" in another language (Filipino), and all I can say is that this system is like no other.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:06, March 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Iba also means only in Slovak, which is also coincidental when you come to think of it because it's the only storm named Iba.  Sandy 156   :)  00:15, March 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * So, do I win the betting pool, or are we only counting North Atlantic storms? ;) Beatissima (talk) 00:17, March 26, 2019 (UTC)

Good question...to the best of my knowledge, the context of the first storm formation section in the betting pools refers to North Atlantic storms forming under the NHC's AOR, not rare South Atlantic storms like this one. We didn't count Arani as the first named storm of the Atlantic in the 2011 betting pools, or Bapo and Cari in the 2015 season, so we shouldn't count this one as the first storm either. The SAtl isn't active enough on a regular basis to warrant being separate, but maybe next year we can add a section including the possibility of storms forming here. Ryan1000 11:49, March 26, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Iba
Iba has dissipated earlier today because of strong shear. It was a good sight while it lasted.  Sandy 156   :)  23:50, March 28, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Bahamas
0/20 - North Atlantic starting early again?! ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:19, May 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not bad...I predicted in the betting pools that we would get Andrea by around the end of May this year, but it looks like we might get her by the start of the month instead, if this AOI becomes Andrea. Forecast to move over Florida and curve northest out to sea, but it could become Andrea while moving offshore. If this becomes Andrea, 2019 would be the 5th consecutive Atlantic hurricane season to start early, an all-time record. Come on, do this! Ryan1000 15:20, May 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Just noticed this AOI a few hours ago. Seems the Atlantic has started to wake up again after a couple of dormant months. Whether this forms into Andrea or not, this is a good sign that the sleeping giant is about to awake (but also a bad sign for the population of the basin).  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:25, May 01, 2019 (UTC)


 * I’m glad the Atlantic is waking up early. Too far out for me to predict if it’s going to be Andrea or it isn’t, but I hope the Atlantic has a kickstart yet again.  Sandy 156   :)  23:38, May 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I predicted we'd get our first of the season by May 1. So when May 1 arrived, I crossed myself out in the betting pool as a loser.  Turns out I might have missed it by just a day or two!  Darn!  Beatissima (talk) 01:31, May 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10. It’s currently over Florida right now. I predict that it won’t develop but we’ll see once it emerges from Florida.  Sandy 156   :)  14:31, May 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now over northeastern Florida; chances are still 10/10.  Sandy 156   :)  14:26, May 3, 2019 (UTC)

Just got downgraded to 0/0, last outlook. Nickcoro (talk) 13:50, May 4, 2019 (UTC)

Guess the North Atlantic was just doing a teaser trailer for its upcoming hurricane season. Premieres this June! Beatissima (talk) 17:56, May 4, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Bermuda
Don't get your hopes down just yet! New AOI south of Bermuda at 0/30.Nickcoro (talk) 18:58, May 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Welp, maybe I spoke too soon on the EPac forum, with this having the same chance of forming as the EPac AOI so far. And it's not expected to affect land (besides east coast swells and Bermuda itself, but it won't be too strong if it does so). Second chance for Andrea so far...come on, make it happen! Five consecutive years with a pre-season storm! Ryan1000 23:01, May 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Go disturbance go! Go develop into Andrea and continue the streak! Don’t let us down or else I’m going to be disappointed!  Sandy 156   :)  23:18, May 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Upped to 0/40 on the latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  17:35, May 18, 2019 (UTC)


 * Increased to 10/40 and on the 2-day TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  05:32, May 19, 2019 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now we’ve got our first invest of the season and it’s up to 30/40. Will this become Andrea and continue the streak of off-season storms? Stay tuned.  Sandy 156   :)  15:59, May 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * 40/40 now. Beatissima (talk) 18:06, May 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Recon is scheduled to investigate this invest tomorrow night, and it could become a short lived (sub)tropical storm Andrea late Monday night or on Tuesday before environmental conditions become unfavorable on Wednesday. Ryan1000 23:12, May 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now increased to 50/50.  Sandy 156   :)  23:42, May 19, 2019 (UTC)

60/60...Come on, almost there! Ryan1000 07:47, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 *  CODE RED! 70/70!  Will likely become a short-lived Andrea tonight or tomorrow morning before merging with a front on Wednesday. Ryan1000 19:26, May 20, 2019 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Andrea
BREAKING:

...A special advisory will be issued on Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC.

NHC has confirmed it on their website. A STWO on Andrea will be up on 6:30 pm EST. The pre-season storm streak continues. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:54, May 20, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not bad! Though I lost in the Betting pools by 1 day, this is still great to see, a record 5 consecutive years with a pre-season storm. Ryan1000 22:02, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * I wonder at what point the official seasonal boundaries will have to be moved. Beatissima (talk) 22:13, May 20, 2019 (UTC)

Good point Beatissima...7 of the past 12 Atlantic hurricane seasons (excluding 2009-2011, 2013 and 2014) had a named storm form before the official start of the season (two of which, 2012 and 2016, each had two pre-season storms), and even so, 2009 had an unnamed depression in May, so 2014 was really the last season in which we didn't see May or June activity. With all of the past 5 Atlantic hurricane seasons (counting this one) having a storm form before the official start of the season, I could see a legitimate case for moving the AHS boundary to May 15 like the EPac. It's becoming less and less unusual to see early or pre-season storms in recent years. Ryan1000 22:18, May 20, 2019 (UTC)

Here it is

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... -NHC Nickcoro (talk) 22:29, May 20, 2019 (UTC)


 * EDIT: Apparently ATCF got the pressure wrong in their estimate, I put 1008 mbar in the Active Storms Header based on this: AL, 01, 2019052018,, BEST, 0, 286N, 687W, 35, 1008, SS ...But apparently it was 1006 mbars instead. Ryan1000 22:34, May 20, 2019 (UTC)


 * NO WAY! I just checked right now back from school and saw that SS Andrea has formed already. I was a bit shook that this invest formed into a subtropical storm. This is incredible that the pre-season streak of storms in staying alive, it’s been 5 years of that streak now. Hello to Andrea!  Sandy 156   :)  23:17, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * The streak lives! And its not hurting anyone! Good job Andrea! Send Help Please  (talk) 00:30, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

Andrea's still moving north, pressure rose a tad to 1007. Forecast to turn east and pass close to Bermuda before dissipating tomorrow. Ryan1000 11:27, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Andrea
Will probably dissipate today.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  14:43, May 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * An epic failure, but hey... The preseason streak lives on ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:18, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea
Eventually, it dissipated without being fully tropical. Nice to see the streak alive though. See you in 2025 Andrea!  Sandy 156   :)  20:38, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

Well, that was short-lived. Bye Andrea! Leeboy100 Hello! 00:13, May 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I guess it was nice to see the streak live on...I'd flip out if 2020 somehow manages to continue it lol. Ryan1000 11:42, May 22, 2019 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Jaguar
Fun fact: While we're all hyped up on watching Andrea keep up the pre-season storm streak, there's apparently (according to a comment on Dr. Master's latest blog post and a recent update on Wikipedia) a subtropical storm named "Jaguar" in the South Atlantic at this same time. 40 mph/1010 mbars. This is, if I'm not mistaken, the first time on record that both a South Atlantic and North Atlantic tropical cyclone were active at the same time. What's not to like, amirite? Ryan1000 00:46, May 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * And both Andrea and Jaguar are subtropical storms. Huh, coincidence.  Sandy 156   :)  01:15, May 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Did this one actually happen? I can't seem to find much info about it. Beatissima (talk) 01:59, May 22, 2019 (UTC)

Yes Beatissima, it did, you can also see warnings on it on this link (courtesy of the Wikipedia page for South Atlantic Tropical Cyclones). Ryan1000 11:47, May 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * OK, thanks. Beatissima (talk) 17:35, May 23, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jaguar
Dissipated yesterday while remaining offshore. Ryan1000 19:29, May 23, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Yucatan Peninsula
New AOI! May form in June. At 20/30 Nickcoro (talk) 18:57, May 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow ok, an AOI forms just hours before the official start of the season. Not bad!  Sandy 156   :)  20:16, May 31, 2019 (UTC)

Since it's just a few hours before June, we might as well put it in June since it probably won't develop before 0Z UTC (8 PM ET/7 PM CT). Anyways, this is actually ex-91E/the AOI in front of 91E in the EPac, but moved into the Atlantic. Given that it'll move over the BOC, it could potentially RI into Barry or TD 2 before hitting Mexico, since the BOC is a highly conducive area for TC's to (briefly) form, and conditions are favorable there now. Proximity to land is the only inhibiting factor for development. Ryan1000 21:33, May 31, 2019 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Now invested according to Tropical Tibits, TWO hasn’t came out yet.  Sandy 156   :)  05:03, June 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * First TWO of the season puts 91L to 30/40.  Sandy 156   :)  05:14, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

NHC says a depression (or Barry) may well form so long as this remains over water. Given the warm SST's of the BOC and the BOC's history of having short-lived spinup TS's, I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility of having Barry from 91L, though it won't be any stronger than Andrea if it does so. The last short-lived BOC spinup TS that we had was Danielle in 2016, the earliest 4th named storm on record in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 11:15, June 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * EDIT:Woah, 8 AM TWO ups this to 40/50. Looks like we might be getting Barry after all...or just TD 2. Ryan1000 11:37, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

60/60 now, we're getting closer... Send Help Please (talk) 18:21, June 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * It’s a possibility that 91L could form, we had other invests reach 60% or higher and didn’t form. I’m just saying, this might have a chance of forming. 91L is getting better organized by the minute.  Sandy 156   :)  18:38, June 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Still 60/60 right now. If this forms, I expect it to be a weak tropical depression at the most, maybe even a weak TS.  Sandy 156   :)  05:48, June 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * 91L is still lingering in the Bay of Campeche. Holding on to 60/60 for seven straight TWOs now.  Sandy 156   :)  05:44, June 3, 2019 (UTC)

Still 60/60 as of the latest TWO. This system is taking its time, I guess... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:36, June 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * 91L hasn't been organizing as much as it could've at this point, and now it's got less than a day before it moves ashore, likely this afternoon. NHC might declare it a PTC before landfall for the sake of issuing storm/flood warnings for parts of Mexico but if it becomes TD 2 or Barry it will be very, very brief. Though it might as well stay an invest. Ryan1000 03:52, June 4, 2019 (UTC)


 * After ten straight TWOs of 60/60 for this invest, the NHC finally downed the chances to 50/50.  Sandy 156   :)  05:21, June 4, 2019 (UTC)

And now it's 40/40. Guess this won't become Barry after all...but heavy rain and flooding are still a threat to northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Ryan1000 17:03, June 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20.  Sandy 156   :)  17:56, June 4, 2019 (UTC)

And now near 0%. Looks like 91L busted...it had a chance to be Barry, but failed. Ryan1000 00:08, June 5, 2019 (UTC)

Officially 0%. Also, I just realized we had an offseason storm; oh well. YellowSkarmory (talk) 04:09, June 5, 2019 (UTC)

And it's gone. YellowSkarmory (talk) 16:47, June 5, 2019 (UTC)

July
June sure was quiet. Beatissima (talk) 05:41, July 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah...but lack of early season activity isn't unusual, even for seasons that end up being bad. Last year had a slow start and nothing notable until September, and 2016 didn't until October. So we still have a long ways to go. Ryan1000 00:02, July 2, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over The U.S.
What in the world, an AOI suddenly popped up in the state of Tennessee. This low-pressure system is at 0/20 rn. It is expected to move to the Gulf of Mexico, where development will be possible there.  Sandy 156   :)  17:39, July 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * I've never seen an AOI over the U.S. expected to move south and develop in the GOM before...though there was an AOI over Louisiana at one point in 2016 that would've been a TS if it was over water. That storm caused heavy damage in the state. Anyways, this might become Barry in the GOM but it probably won't be too strong if it does so. Ryan1000 01:07, July 7, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now near 0/50.  Sandy 156   :)  22:54, July 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/60 now. Beatissima (talk) 03:05, July 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code red, 0/70. This reminds me of Arthur 2014, which similarly tracked southeastwards from the US to over water. That was farther northeast though, and not the GoM. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:49, July 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now it was bumped up to 10/80. It seems like this storm is going to form quite soon. Nickcoro (talk) 11:36, July 8, 2019 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tibits and up to 30/80, this might have a chance of developing.  Sandy 156   :)  17:46, July 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * Both the Euro and GFS models are currently taking this into Texas. The Euro model has this as a pretty healthy looking system, while the GFS has this as a weaker system. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:12, July 8, 2019 (UTC)

SST's are quite warm in the upper gulf of mexico (29-31 degrees C, or 84-88 F), but despite that, few of the 06Z and 12Z runs of the models today make this storm (Barry-to-be) a hurricane at landfall, since it doesn't have much time before it turns back north towards the coast and it won't be too organized when it initially moves offshore. It does have a chance to pull that off, but it's slim. It'd be akin to Humberto '07 if 92L does pull hurricane strength off. Ryan1000 20:24, July 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80 and now over eastern Florida. Some models are taking it up to TS status.  Sandy 156   :)  16:36, July 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * @Sandy; the latest run of the UKMet is actually taking this to Category 3-4 status with a landfall on the Tx/Louisiana border. The GFS is now showing at least a Cat 1 hurricane and the Euro is showing a Cat 1-2 hurricane in most runs now all of them are showing landfall between Houston and Western Louisiana. Think this is actually going to be quite a major system. Everyone in the Gulf should be paying attention. The water temperatures are so warm, dew points high and sheer so low that the likelihood for an explosive RI is here with this system. Now it may not get to UKMet levels but I think this will likely be a huricane when it makes landfall. --Whiplash (talk) 17:10, July 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * See here: . Also hello again everyone time for another active huricane season it appears. --Whiplash (talk) 17:11, July 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 70/80 as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.  Sandy 156   :)  17:37, July 9, 2019 (UTC)

I wouldn't jump the gun on this exploding to a super strong hurricane just yet, if it moves quickly into southeastern Louisiana it'll only have two days or so until landfall again, in which case a cat 1 might be the strongest possible scenario. That, and according to Dr. Master's latest blog post it does have dry air over southern Louisiana to contend with, which may slow rapid development despite low shear and high SST's. However, I will say that I am concerned about what would happen if 92L takes the southern end of the possible paths it could take and moves far enough west to reach, say Houston instead of southern Louisiana, then this'll have a lot more time over warm water and might have a chance to be formidable after moving through the dry air. Hopefully that doesn't happen, many areas of Houston are still recovering from the massive damage wrought by Harvey less than two years ago. Also, if that happens, list 5's curse of always having at least 1 retired name every usage since 1979 will live on with this year...behave yourself, 92L. Ryan1000 20:56, July 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 90/90. Barry is about to enter the stage (unless this flops at the last moment)  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:34, July 09, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not entirely sure why they haven't PTC'd this system yet... Send Help Please  (talk) 23:59, July 9, 2019 (UTC)

@Ryan: I'm thinking it will be either a Cat 1 or 2 hurricane personally. Eitherway the biggest problem this system is going to give is the rain. The Mississippi River is already swollen from the flooding earlier this spring up in the midwest. The rain/storm surge from this is forecast at this moment to get the Mississippi River at New Orleans to 19 ft on Friday. If it were to hit 20 the water would overtop the levees protecting the city from the Mississippi River and the city would flood. This is kind of a reverse Katrina situation as it was the levees on Ponchatrain that overtopped last time and not the Miss. This would mostly depend on how slow the system would move and how expansive it would get to maintain the surge at the mouth of the river. Currently not looking that bad. But the models have severely underestimated several rapid intensifications in the Gulf of Mexico over the last 2 years so I vigilance is required. --Whiplash (talk) 00:16, July 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * The NHC says that the Tropical Storm, Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches could be required for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast the next day. I expect a C1 hurricane from this system, but a C2’s not out of the question. And also, the NHC said that an reconnaissance flight is scheduled to investigate 92L at around tomorrow afternoon.  Sandy 156   :)  02:29, July 10, 2019 (UTC)

The main GOM storm the models underestimated for RI was Michael last October, which blew up all the way to cat 5 when it struck Panama City, but conditions were nearly ideal for him to rapidly intensify in the gulf. Despite that, none of the models expected Michael to intensify at the rate he did before landfall. Harvey actually was forecast to become a 130 mph cat 4 many days before landfall by the HWRF model (which was the top intensity forecasting model for the super-strong 2017 season), but conditions for 92L's development aren't quite the same as they were for those two storms. Michael also could've been much, much more destructive if the ridge of high pressure over Florida wasn't there and he had struck Tampa further south at the intensity that he struck Panama City at. While this storm has different conditions for development, we'll have to see how this organizes and how much the dry air over southern Louisiana impedes the future intensity of 92L. Ryan1000 04:54, July 10, 2019 (UTC)


 * PTC2 advisories to be initiated at 11 ET. Also localized flash flooding now occuring throughout the NOLA metro area and this thing is just getting started. Low level convection beginning to organize too a bit further south than originally anticipated should allow this thing to strengthen further rather than less. --Whiplash (talk) 14:42, July 10, 2019 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two
Now that we have the advisory, NHC is expecting a hurricane force landfall in Louisiana. Tropical Storm Watches are already in effect for parts of Louisiana. For right now, PTC 2 has winds of 30mph and a pressure of 1011mb. Nickcoro (talk) 15:15, July 10, 2019 (UTC)


 * The text in the (second to?) last TWO before the PTC designation made my hairs stand on end a bit... calling for the possibility of hurricane-force winds before a TC had even formed... as far as I can recall, the NHC has only done this for two other disturbances in the Atlantic. Which storms did these two disturbances become? Harvey and Maria. Then again, the same sort of text was used for the disturbance that became Lidia in the EPAC, and while Lidia didn't go without impact, its effects were minuscule compared to the carnage wrought by Harvey and Maria, and it even failed to reach hurricane strength. So the prospect of the NHC noting the possibility of hurricane-force winds from a storm that hasn't even formed yet isn't necessarily a harbinger of doom, but it's unnerving nonetheless. Play nice, future Barry... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:27, July 10, 2019 (UTC)

Forecast to peak at 85 mph right now, but the cone of uncertainty is fairly wide for this storm, so it could end up anywhere from south of New Orleans to even west of Galveston and Houston. Only a few previous storms have had such a wide range of uncertainty on the upper gulf, such as Lee '11 (which simply moved north into Louisiana but the remnants caused up to 3 billion dollars in severe flooding in the Mid-Atlantic and even Canada), and Debby '12, which was forecast to become a hurricane in Texas at first but it instead turned east towards Florida. The latter was a huge example of the GFS significantly outperforming the Euro and the HWRF. As a side note, as I mentioned once last year, the NHC actually does number PTC's like they do depressions, so this is 02L.NONAME and is an active storm in the header. Ryan1000 18:08, July 10, 2019 (UTC)


 * As a side note, SHIPS is already forecasting RI possibilities for this storm, with a 35% chance of a 25-30 knot increase in the next 24 hours and a 13% chance for a 55 knot increase in 48 hours. This is already intensifying ahead of schedule, as it wasn't expected to become Barry until two days from now while it was over the U.S, and it's already a PTC now. Sadly, category 2 is looking more likely and this could even become a major hurricane before landfall. Western Louisiana and Texas should consider evacuating... Ryan1000 20:56, July 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Funny thing is, I've always wanted the name Barry to go to a major hurricane... but this is not what I had in mind :( I suppose there's the chance it could pull a Bret '99 by hitting a sparsely populated area as a major hurricane and still not being all that bad, but Bret was an exceptional case and I can't think of any other storm off the top of my head that hit the U.S. as a major hurricane and caused less-than-severe damage. Maybe Isbell '64? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:09, July 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Gracie from 1959 would be another. Although there is a dispute on whether that name actually got retired. Edit: Also Bonnie 1998 was very close to Category 3 when it came ashore and its effects were moderate. --Whiplash (talk) 00:58, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Easy of 1950 wasn't that bad either, but Cedar Key isn't the most populated part of Florida, like the area of Texas between Brownsville and Corpus Christi; also I believe that Isbell '64 might get its intensity nerfed in the hurricane reanalysis project. Emily '93 and Bonnie '98 only brushed by the Outer Banks of NC as major hurricanes, but could've been much worse if they moved further inland. Those aside, landfalling U.S. majors don't usually have happy endings...also, this would only be the second Barry to become a hurricane if it does so before landfall, after his first incarnation in 1983. Hopefully Barry doesn't get too strong before landfall, it does have some dry air and light northern shear to deal with for now, but as mentioned in the latest discussion, Barry could blow up rapidly just before landfall. Ryan1000 01:40, July 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Some changes with the models. Now looking like a more easterly landfall towards NOLA. While this may stop some of the wind intensity this would actually be a worse case scenario for this system as it would allow it to stall and potentially cause catastrophic flooding throughout the city from the already swollen Miss. River. Evacuations have already begun in NOLA in Plaquemines Parish and parts of the Western bank of the city. Getting scary. --Whiplash (talk) 08:14, July 11, 2019 (UTC)


 * Still not a depression yet, though I imagine it will be by the next update. The forecast peak intensity has been lowered a little to 75 mph, but unceartainty still looms large. At this point though, Isaac 2.0 looks to be this storm's future. Send Help Please  (talk) 08:55, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

Dr. Master's latest blog post shows that since the Mississippi River is already at high levels from heavy flooding that moved down the river from earlier this year, it is now at 16 feet and if it reaches 20 feet, then this could flood New Orleans, if it drops enough rainfall or surge into the river. The HWRF and GFS's latest runs are a bit apocalyptic, with the HWRF bringing this into the LA/MS border as a 966 mbar category 3 hurricane, and the GFS stalls it near the New Orleans area as a 994 mbar strong TS, which could bring enough rain to flood the city, though I doubt this'll trend that far east or get that strong if it does so. The Euro's latest run makes this a 996 mbar TS just before moving it ashore well west of New Orleans, which is probably the most plausible scenario, but nothing can be ruled out...let's just hope the Euro is right this time and it moves farther west over central Louisiana, New Orleans doesn't need any more rain. Ryan1000 11:35, July 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still not a depression yet in the latest advisory, but winds have increased to 35 mph. Barry sure is taking his time. Send Help Please  (talk) 12:00, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barry
The latest advisroy brings it up to 40 mph and 1005 mb. PTC 2 is now Barry. Nickcoro (talk) 15:02, July 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * This might be getting pretty frightening for Louisiana and surrounding areas due to the forecast flooding. The levees are going to be tested with this system. Forecast says it's going to briefly become a hurricane before landfall. And I sure hope it doesn't start to unexpectedly RI! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:22, July 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest discussion mentions that there is some dry air and shear that are currently in Barry's way and that he will have to deal with said shear up until landfall. Combining all that with the fact that Barry is a big boi, RI isn't looking too likely (stranger things have happened, of course). However, RI or not, Barry's legacy will be horrible flooding brought about by torrential rainfall. Send Help Please  (talk) 15:39, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

The dry air is coming from a ULL bringing it in from Texas, so Barry might not become a hurricane, or only peak as a cat 1, but the intensity of this storm is the least of Louisiana's worries. Barry will probably be bringing heavy rain as it moves inland, and that's the main threat. Ryan1000 17:00, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

Hey, I don’t really know how to do all that fancy lettering but I wanted to leave a comment. I live right next to Baton Rogue so do you all think I need to be worried? Bigboysalami2 (talk) 18:16, July 11, 2019 (UTC) Andrew

Advisory 6A is out. 45 MPH, 1001 MB. I hope this doesn't get too much stronger, but this very well could become a hurricane before landfall and it could be bad. YellowSkarmory (talk) 00:06, July 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * I'm up in Ohio, and it looks like I'll get hit with the remnants. Beatissima (talk) 02:39, July 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Little change in the latest advisory: Barry is now at 50 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:18, July 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * This thing kind of looks like a half-eaten doughnut on satellite. It's definitely one of the messier systems I've seen. The eastern portion looks like it's trying to get some thunderstorm activity going in recent frames, which is bad news for New Orleans.  Send Help Please (talk) 04:21, July 12, 2019 (UTC)

Still 50 mph, pressure down to 998 mb though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:08, July 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory places it at 65 MPH, still with 998 MB pressure. Projected to hit hurricane strength before landfall. The storm is starting to look less like a garbled mess too. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:55, July 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * I was starting to worry that Barry would never outgrow his half-eaten doughnut phase; seems like he's starting to get his act together. Send Help Please  (talk) 14:54, July 12, 2019


 * I had doubts on this system that it won’t become a hurricane looking how it looks yesterday, and now it seems likely that it’ll become one since it had got it together and stuff. Latest advisory keeps the wind speeds the same and lowering the pressure down to 993. I hope this won’t be a deadly and a destructive storm.  Sandy 156   :)  17:55, July 12, 2019 (UTC)

Barry has most of his thunderstorm activity south of his circulation, so the storm hasn't been nearly as wet for New Orleans as he could've been by now, and if the thunderstorm activity stays west of New Orleans, then the worst case for flooding with this storm might not happen, though western LA might still get flooded quite a bit. Ryan1000 03:14, July 13, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Several hundred miles SW of Cape Verde
10/10 as of right now. I honestly thought that this had been choked out by the Saharan air layer already. Send Help Please (talk) 11:56, July 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * It will be soon enough...Ryan1000 17:00, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tibits.  Sandy 156   :)  17:53, July 11, 2019 (UTC)

It's made its' way to 20/20 now. Maybe it could sneak in and develop? YellowSkarmory (talk) 15:03, July 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * 10/20. If this develops, it probably won't be until later. Ryan1000 03:17, July 13, 2019 (UTC)