Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season/Willa

AOI: SE of Mexico
And anotha one. 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:17, October 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:07, October 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * This could actually take us to the "V" name (Vicente). wow ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:02, October 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * The GFS takes this one to major hurricane intensity and forecasts it to scrape the southern Baja California peninsula as a 962 mbar storm in 12 days. Might not happen since its 12 days out, and I hope this'll become strong without hitting land. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 17:46, October 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0/60 now. The EPac is on fire. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:44, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

0/70. Haven't seen such a stark contrast between 2 and 5-day odds of development in a while. In any instance, it should be invested soon. This AOI may actually be coming partly from the leftovers of 94L in the Atlantic after it moves over Central America tomorrow night. Ryan1000 12:41, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/80. Wow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:55, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Rarely have I seen that much of a contrast between 2-day and 5-day. Should be Vicente by the end of the week and looks like it will also significantly affect Mexico. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:14, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * We could even go up to Xavier if this, the other EPAC AOI, and the invest in the Atlantic crosses over and forms here (which models are indicating). On the personal note, this is the first "T" named storm I've tracked in both basins.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     01:55, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

94L might actually be linked to long-term development of this if it and this AOI merge down the road, like that earlier AOI this month merged with the invest that became Michael in the Atlantic. But if they become separate storms, and the 10/20 AOI SSW of Baja develops (though that's unlikely) then we could be up to the "X" name for the first time since 1992. Ryan1000 11:15, October 16, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 40/90. Also, it looks like I was right; the NHC now explicitly mentions in the Tropical Weather Outlook that this is expected to form directly from 94L crossing into the East Pacific. So we won't get two separate storms here. Unless, another one forms behind this at some point. Ryan1000 13:02, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
And 94L is now 99E. Likely to become Vicente later this week. Ryan1000 11:26, October 17, 2018 (UTC)

This looks really bad, conditions are great for development... I really hope we don’t have another major on our hands... Noah 13:43, October 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Tropical Tidbits says this is different from 94L though. But I hope future Vicente would break the ACE record without affecting any landmass. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:01, October 17, 2018 (UTC)

They're not the same by their number Anonymous, but 99E is basically ex-94L in the Atlantic, but now in the EPac. Anyways, up to 90/90, and should be Vicente today or Friday. 1992's ACE should fall by the weekend. Hopefully it stays offshore though. Ryan1000 03:45, October 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep after Tara's failure, this should be the one that breaks the ACE record. Even if it stays offshore, its still forecast to be close enough to Mexico to bring potentially widespread impacts there. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:31, October 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is too close to land. Anyway, I agree that 94L and 99E are just the same (or merged as one), but when I checked the Tropical Tidbits site, the center of 99E (marked as "L") was offshore, but 94L's center (also marked with "L") was located inland. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:08, October 18, 2018 (UTC)


 * Pretty sure this is the southern part of 94L. From what I gathered 94L's surface low dissipated over Central America and the portion of thunderstorms extending into the EPac formed a new low. Still disorganized, but now at 90/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:55, October 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/80. Please don't bust... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:47, October 18, 2018 (UTC)

Convection has waned a bit with this AOI lately, it could still develop by the weekend when it builds back up again though. Still likely to remain offshore. Ryan1000 10:27, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 80/90. Will probably be Willa assuming it develops, since 23E will probably take Vicente. YellowSkarmory (talk) 20:28, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E
And now this is 24E. Forecast to become Hurricane Willa, and recurve towards Mexico...this might well be the first landfalling hurricane of the season. Ryan1000 09:15, October 20, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow, who knew we would reach Willa this year? Anyway, the 06z GFS forecast run turns Vicente into Failcente, which gets absorbed by Willa. They also have XAVIER forming in early November. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:10, October 20, 2018 (UTC)


 * Will ya form into Willa? I'm sorry. That was bad. Anyway the NHC cone has this as a major currently. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:14, October 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Willa
Looks like it did. I think we broke 92's ACE record, unsure. YellowSkarmory (talk) 14:53, October 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's official. With this becoming Willa, the ACE of this year is now 295.4925 units. Since 1992 ended at 295.492 units, 2018 has now surpassed 1992 by 0.0005 units as having the highest ACE of any Pacific hurricane season in recorded history, and if Willa becomes a major hurricane, as she is currently forecast to, we'll top 300 ACE units when all is said and done. This is also the first time the name Willa has been used, as with Vicente. Hopefully impacts in Mexico down the road aren't too bad. Ryan1000 16:17, October 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Willa was actually used in 1962. YellowSkarmory (talk) 16:34, October 20, 2018 (UTC)

Ah, forgot that time...in any instance, it's rare to see a "W" name in the EPac, and the old naming lists were continuous, as opposed to starting from the beginning as they are now. I'm not sure if we'll run the table this year, but we could get Xavier later this month or November. Ryan1000 16:45, October 20, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 60 mph/999 mb as of latest advisory, one helluva jump. At this rate, Willa might be a hurricane by the next advisory. Send Help Please (talk) 21:19, October 20, 2018 (UTC)


 * Nope, but Willa is at 70 mph now, just a hair away from hurricane intensity. Willa also looks prime to undergo some RI, and could become a formidable major hurricane before weakening as it recurves to strike near Mazatlan sometime on Wednesday or so. Ryan1000 03:46, October 21, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Willa
Up to 75 knots and 984 mb. A pinhole eye is forming, and Willa is now forecast to reach C4 status. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:14, October 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * I think we could very well be looking at our 3rd cat 5 this season if Willa continues to rapidly explode, since EPac storms can overshoot their intensity forecasts with ease. If that happens, Willa could also be a formidably powerful storm when she makes landfall in western Mexico. This storm bears close watching over the next few days. Ryan1000 12:22, October 21, 2018 (UTC)

Willa's going up fast in intensity, up to 100 mph and 975 mbars. Likely to be a major by the next advisory. Ryan1000 16:22, October 21, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Willa
Explosively intensifying now, up to Category 4 with 115kt/950mb... Kiewii 22:33, October 21, 2018 (UTC)

And Willa joins the category four gang.No.1 Mobile (talk) 22:44, October 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * God forbid this thing pulls a Patricia and somehow actually hits at that intensity... Send Help Please  (talk) 22:49, October 21, 2018 (UTC)

(edit conflict) 2018 now ties 2015 for the most cat 4's on record in one season, with 10. 2015 still holds the major hurricane record though, since Linda became a major that year but didn't become a 4. We could still tie 2015's record though, if we get one more major in the next month, since 2015 managed to get Sandra in late November. But onto Willa, she's exploding very rapidly, and since she still has another 36 hours or so of warm water and little to no shear, Willa could very well become the 3rd category 5 hurricane of the season, which would tie 1994 (which also used this year's naming list) and 2002 for the most cat 5's in a single Pacific hurricane season. However, Willa will probably weaken before striking Mexico, though it could still hit the coastline as a strong category 3 or 4 hurricane, if Willa becomes a 5. Ryan1000 22:59, October 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * Looks like Willa will be another powerful "W" name storm after Winnie 97, Wilma 05, and Winston 15. Hopefully it significantly weakens before landfall. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 23:37, October 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * Holy heck, Willa has just taken off. I didn’t expect to see her be a Cat 4 already, and a Cat 5 is looking pretty likely. I highly doubt we’ll see a Patricia-type scenario, though. Because the water temperatures are cooler than they were for Patricia. Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 00:16, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, I didn't really expect this kind of strengthening from Willa. Very likely to become a C5 as well if it continues intensifying at this pace. Not looking very good for the region of Mexico in Willa's predicted strike zone... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:37, October 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * 145 mph, 941 mb. Like Winnie, Wilma, Winston and Walaka, this is bound to become a Category 5 (in my opinion). Latest forecast brings this as a major as it makes landfall – but weaker than the expected 155 mph peak. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 05:30, October 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * New advisory. 155/931, and Willa will very likely be a Category 5 later this morning, if not in the next advisory. Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 05:52, October 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Willa wants to be Wilma. Or Patricia. This reminds me too much of Patricia. Probably will(a) be a C5 when I wake up. YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:16, October 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * With this storm's impressive intensity, we have passed 300 units of ACE. Send Help Please  (talk) 10:36, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

Willa could undergo an ERC or something just before landfall, or feel somewhat stronger shear as she recurves that could keep her just below cat 5 strength where she is now, but a brief stint of cat 5 intensity can't be ruled out just before this hurricane weakens before landfall. The small but very intense hurricane will have a localized area of the most severe impacts, but they could still be extreme in the areas affected, like Patricia's impacts in western Mexico exactly 3 years ago on October 23, 2015 (assuming Willa makes landfall tomorrow night). Ryan1000 12:24, October 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Tropical Tidbits says 140 kts/925 mbar. Say hello to our third (potentially fourth, pending post-analysis of Hector) C5 of the season... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:30, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

ATCF backs that up: WILLA, D, 0,   ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 040, EP, 24, 2018102212,   , BEST,   0, 187N, 1072W, '140,  925, HU''. '''Now all that's needed is NHC confirmation, either in the next advisory or an update statement. Ryan1000 14:20, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

Category 5 Hurricane Willa
NHC confirmed it. 160 mph, 925 mb. Forecast to weaken before landfall, but still a major. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:47, October 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * ...WILLA BECOMES A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...Wow. Ryan1000 14:51, October 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * And this season has officially tied 1994 and 2002 in terms of number of Category 5s. Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 14:52, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

Based on these data the initial intensity has been increased to 140 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to WILMA and should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.

Regardless of funny typos, this storm will be deadly and I’m praying for Mexico. This could be catastrophic. User:StormTracker33 16:03UTC

So the recon plane headed to Willa expereniced a saftey issue and had to return to base. Ugh. -Hurricanes101 here!


 * Pro tip: Don't mess with storms whose names start with W and end with A. Send Help Please  (talk) 19:28, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Willa (2nd time)
Down to a 4. 155 mph/929 mbars. Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 20:59, October 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 145 mph, but still likely to be a formidable major hurricane at landfall sometime later today or tonight. Ryan1000 03:49, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

Further down to 130 mph/945 mbars, but still a formidable and dangerous storm, and Willa has expanded significantly since she was a cat 5 yesterday. Willa is probably going to be a 115 mph major hurricane or so when she makes landfall, but Willa's sluggish movement of only 5-7 mph has already led to severe flooding rains and mudslides on the coastline. Hopefully the death toll won't be as bad as Manuel's, but this could be a very, very destructive hurricane due to the extensive, heavy flooding rains from Willa's slow movement, unlike faster-moving storms like Patricia. Ryan1000 11:09, October 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 110 kts with a pressure of... 966 mbar?!? That's a pressure I'd expect from a 110 mph hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:04, October 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, it’s weird that the pressure is that high. To be honest, I’m not 100% convinced that the 966 reading isn’t just a typo, but it seems legit (I think). Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 15:50, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

Willa's pressure has been rising quite a bit lately due to increasingly high shear as it approaches Mexico, although she is over warm SST's which should keep Willa as either a weak major hurricane or a strong category 2 storm through landfall. And as I mentioned above, Willa's slow movement is a huge problem for flooding rains near the coastline. Hopefully the flooding and impacts won't be as bad as Manuel 5 years ago, but it could still be very severe. Ryan1000 16:00, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

Update on the Hurricane Hunter safety issue, the aircraft was apparently STRUCK BY LIGHTNING, causing the safety issue, as The Weather Channel says. User: hurricanes101

Landfall on Las Islas Marias
Intense lightning is common in rapidly intensifying hyper-intense hurricanes like Willa near the center of their circulation. Regardless, Willa is now passing over the Revillagigedo Islands (specifically Las Islas Marias) southwest of mainland Mexico at her current intensity of 125 mph and 966 mbars, putting Willa at a 5-way tie for the 7th highest windspeed for a landfalling Pacific hurricane, with Odile '14, Lane '06, Tico '83 and Olivia '67. Ryan1000 16:53, October 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * wow, dat bih be dabbin on mexico bruh, one sexy m0th4fuck1n thicc cat 5 hurricane earlier on, lovely and thicc --Next time we meet, I&#39;m gonna land a thousand strikes on that face of yours. (talk) 17:40, October 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * dis thicc bih rivalling de dragon loli and de krabby patty, who she gon beat fam --Next time we meet, I&#39;m gonna land a thousand strikes on that face of yours. (talk) 17:47, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 120 mph, but pressure decreased to 965 mb. This is going to be catastrophic... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:23, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall near Isla Del Bosque
NHC mentioned earlier that Willa made landfall near Isla Del Bosque at that intensity A2.0, and Willa's slow movement up to and at landfall means there's probably going to be a lot of flooding rains from this hurricane. Fortunately it missed Mazatlan to the south, but still, flooding from this storm will likely be very severe. This'll likely be Willa's last usage. Currently Willa is down to 115 mph and 970 mbars, but likely to rapidly weaken soon. Ryan1000 03:41, October 24, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Willa
Down to a depression, likely to die out soon. Ryan1000 12:18, October 24, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Willa
And she's gone... probably for good. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:06, October 24, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, her remnants could bring rainfall to the U.S. down the road, but otherwise, yeah, Willa's done for, in more ways than one. Ryan1000 16:38, October 24, 2018 (UTC)