Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Lua

AoI: South-southwest of Bali
BoM liking this one, so they have gone with high chance. —12R.KIEWII 08:22, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

95S.INVEST
Now an invest.—Cy10E-Mail 21:01, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

Probably will be Daphne if I am correct.Allanjeffs 01:40, March 10, 2012 (UTC)

Nope. That's 96P.—Cy10E-Mail 02:04, March 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Lua
Well this one sprung up on us, only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but Western Australia should watch out nevertheless. Ryan1000 13:42, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

Expected to peak as a 75 kt C3 cyclone. —12R.KIEWII 16:06, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

So now Lua It will probably one of the last of the season we can have fun while it is alive even though I am sorry that it will make landfall and bring heavy rains over Australia they need to keep an eye on her.Allanjeffs 19:16, March 13, 2012 (UTC)

For your comment beow Ryan I think Lua has possibillity to become an intense cyclone I usually like cycones that explode but Because it looks like it will be making landfall in Australia am not cheering for her maybe Mitchell if we have him will be a different story.Allanjeffs 03:48, March 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 17U won't develop; it's inland now. Allan, regarding Lua, it's forecast to only become a 90-100 mph cyclone at it's peak (a C3 on the Australian scale, per what Kiewii said above)^ That could still be destructive, but I don't think it will bomb out to a cat 3 or 4 on SSHS. Still, the folks near Broome, maybe Port Headland, should watch out for this pesky little sh!t. I don't like the looks of this thing. Ryan1000 13:44, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Well actually it is now expected to peak as a 90 kt C4 cyclone. —12R.KIEWII 16:30, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Lua looks a bit like Cyclone George of 2007 in terms of it's current forecast track and (potential) peak strength, but it formed in a different area. It may pose a threat as severe as George or Laurence, but this will be no Yasi or Tracy. Still, the folks in Western Australia better keep their eye out for this thing. Ryan1000 20:14, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

I knew that she was going to intensify into a big system they better be prepare the folks in Australia.Allanjeffs 20:45, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, this one looks a lot like George. It will probrably make landfall at Port Headland (well, now it's called South Headland), by this Friday or Saturday. I would not expect anyone to die though; even Cyclone Yasi, Australia's costliest cyclone ever, didn't kil anyone directly in it's path. I don't expect anyone to perish after this storm either, assuming everyone heeds the evacuation orders. Ryan1000 23:38, March 14, 2012 (UTC)

That depends Ryan because even Yasi that was strong didn`t kill a lot of people look Grant it was weaker and kill more so Lua could still be very nasty.Allanjeffs 00:07, March 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Lua looks great on satellite. -- —Cy10 00:52, March 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * In case anyone's wondering, with Lua, the 2011-12 AUS season is now just over halfway to average (7 tropical cyclones). It'll be interesting to see what she'll do to Australia. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions01:42, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

BoM have issued a cyclone warning for Mardle up to Bldyadanga as Lua is expected to make landfall as a C3 cyclone. —12R.KIEWII 09:23, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

I agree people don't take weak storms as seriously as they do strong ones (which was why Washi ended up so bad). However, since Lua will be a large, threatening storm, I would expect the deaths from Lua (if any) to be indirect. I think the folks in WA will take this one pretty seriously. Grant was a slower-moving, more persistent storm, so flooding was a big concern with him, leading to the loss of life. Yasi was Australia's Katrina in terms of damage, but coastal storm surge was the top threat from Yasi, not inland flooding like it is with slower, weaker storms. Regarding the track, Lua seems to be heading more to the east of Port Headland, so the folks in Pardoo could get the eyewall from this cyclone. That's not good. By the time it makes landfall, it might only be a cat 1 (on SSHS), but still, it could cause some pretty extensive damages. Ryan1000 20:17, March 15, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua
Now a severe tropical cyclone. -- Cy10 01:47, March 16, 2012 (UTC)

Now a C4. -- Cy10 23:11, March 16, 2012 (UTC)

she is becoming very dangerous and if you see tropical low 17 that is actually inland looks like a tropical storm.Allanjeffs 00:22, March 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Lua (2nd time)
Lua has made landfall and back to a C2.Cy10E-Mail 14:02, March 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * JTWC has issued the last advisory on Lua.Cy10E-Mail 18:38, March 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * And now down to a C1.Cy10E-Mail 23:54, March 17, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lua
And gone!--Cy10E-Mail 04:23, March 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's not gone, it has just weakened below tropical cyclone intensity. —12R.KIEWII 12:40, March 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now it is.Cy10E-Mail 18:58, March 18, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Lua
Well if it has gone, you put 'Remnants of Lua' as the heading. —12R.KIEWII 19:05, March 18, 2012 (UTC)