Forum:2014 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2014 00:00:00 until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future Start
Two months until 2014. I'll make my predictions once 2013 is over with. Betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:02, October 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now that the 2013 Atlantic season is done, I'll give out my pre-season predictions: 9-14 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and 0-3 majors. —Steven09876 Talk • Contribs 00:40, December 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * HAHAHA, LOL HAPPY NEW YEAR LOL (you should see the Google Doodle LOL the 3 was out of breath) London and sydney fireworks was AWESOMEEEE Susanna Reid said it was meant to taste of strawberries XD ANYWAY... Lemme see... 14 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 3 majors.  “i liek turtlez 02:22, January 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Happy new year to you too! Yeah, that Google doodle looks pretty cool...in fact, it's gotta be one of the best doodles I've seen in a while. I'm still going to go with my above predictions, and I'll update them in March or April. It's also a good time to remind everyone to edit when you're at your best or you will do things like this, Steven  09876  ✉  20:00, January 1, 2014 (UTC)

Here are my Atlantic basin predictions:

8 tropical depressions, 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major hurricane, 17.50 named storm days, 4.50 hurricane days, 0.5 major hurricane days, and an ACE of 55 (give or take 10). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:46, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's time to update my predictions, I'm now thinking 8-13 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes. I've lowered my predictions slightly due to incoming El Nino, which could quiet down the Atlantic this year. On June 1 (the start of the season), I'll issue another forecast, and my final predictions will come during mid-season.   Steve  820  ✉   21:04, April 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * 9 ts might be 7 if a super El Niño develops  3 hurricanes at most and 1 single major or not  like last year. If 2013 was a dissappointment this might be as well. I am becoming crazy with all these hurricane seasons.Allanjeffs 01:11, April 10, 2014 (UTC)

Not sure this is bad or not.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:46, April 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * They'll still be invests, just no more ATCF updates prior to advisory time. We'll have to wait for the advisory to actually come out. I don't know why the NHC is doing this. It's the media's problem, not there's. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:05, April 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * I might say even though I hate this news I understand their case.Many people jump the gun including me sometimes when there is a renumber,So I believe they are trying to teach the media and bloggers to be more calm and not jump the gun.Allanjeffs 06:06, April 17, 2014 (UTC)

The season is starting in 29 days! Can't wait to see what this year's Atlantic season will have in store! :)  Steve  820  ✉   20:56, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * 15 more days!  Steve  820  ✉   20:07, May 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow,I have been so busy with life I haven't been tracking these things, some recent findings have shocked me: the retirement of Ingrid suprised me. I was drinking tea while I read that NOW I NEED A NEW KEYBOARD :P (JK). On the other hand I'm not surprised by the retirement of Manuel. (I'm getting off topic, I should probably put this on last year's archive). Also, I think we might have another storm in May this year. I just have a feeling.


 * Another example of a surprise (late) discovery to me: Everything below me!leeboy100 (talk) 23:50, May 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * As everyone cheers on Amanda in the EPAC, I would like to point out our first candidate for a tropical cyclone this year in the Atlantic. Per Jeff Masters, GFS forecasts the MJO to increase thunderstorm activity in the Western Caribbean on the week of June 1, prompting potential development around the Yucatan. However, this does not mean 2014 will be active in any way. Just take a look at inactive 1968, which had Abby and Candy develop in the same general region in June. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:36, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * The countdown continues... 6 more days until the season starts! Hopefully we'll see a storm in the western Caribbean during the week of June 1, that'll mark a very early start to the season. However, this season should be inactive due to El Nino. It's still not out of the question we could get a re-1992 though, in which we have a inactive season but there is one extremely destructive storm (remember Hurricane Andrew?). In fact, there's a tiny chance we could even get a re-Katrina this season, and that won't be good. That's why we need to be prepared every season, just in case a devastating disaster strikes New Orleans or something.  Steve  820  ✉   21:05, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * 4 days left...  Steve  820  ✉   23:59, May 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * 3 more days!  Steve  820  ✉   00:18, May 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * 2 days left!! :D  Steve  820  ✉   22:57, May 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * less than 1 day left!!!!!! leeboy100 (talk) 17:24, May 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * There's a cluster of storms in the Gulf of Mexico, probably won't develop, but it's close to where I live and could bring rain (which we don't need any more of) to my area
 * leeboy100 (talk) 17:32, May 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * And the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (well, 1 hour, 18 minutes ago) in UTC. Might see that GoM invest the models were predicting develop into Arthur in about a week or so. Ryan1000 01:19, June 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hopefully we'll see an Arthur during the next week or so. I predict this season will be somewhat inactive to near-average because of that El Nino. My updated forecast for this season calls for 9-12 named storms, 2-5 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Anyway, happy hurricane season!! Woohoo! Let's celebrate the start of the season with a bang!  Steve  820  ✉   03:16, June 1, 2014 (UTC)

Re-analysis
Not completely related to 2014, but some notable reanalysis for the Atlantic has now taken place. Camille of 1969 had 900 mbars at landfall, but winds were downed to 175 mph. Audrey of 1957 was actually a cat 3 at landfall in LA (120 mph), not a cat 4, and that also makes it 2nd to Alma of 1966 as the strongest June hurricane on record in the Atlantic, one of only two June major hurricanes (the first storm of 1945 was downgraded to a cat 2 in reanalysis), and she remains the strongest June landfall. Neither the 1945 or 1949 atlantic hurricane seasons had two cat 4 U.S. landfalls, as the hurricanes that hit Texas those years were downgraded to a cat 3 (1945) and 2 (1949) upon landfall. The 1947 Fort Lauterdale hurricane was not a cat 5 according to reanalysis, but instead a strong cat 4, same with Hurricane Dog of 1950, both of which were really 145 mph major hurricanes. Hurricane King of 1950 was upgraded to a 130 mph category 4 hurricane upon landfall in Miami, but Hurricanes Baker and Charlie of 1950 were revised to be cat 2's, not 3's, so 1950's former 8 major hurricane record is now down to 6, so 2005 and 1961 now hold a tied record of 7 major hurricanes. 1950 also had a lot of unnamed tropical storms that weren't discovered operationally, so their ACE/storm total is a lot lower than it once was. Ryan1000 16:11, April 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Unusual discoveries. Ryan, one fact you missed was with the added storms, 1949's September ties with 2002, 2007, and 2010 for the most active one in terms of total storms. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:57, April 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Forgot to post this before, but the link for those changes is a blog post from Dr Masters here. Ryan1000 09:20, May 23, 2014 (UTC)