Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We have one for the EPac, so why not the Atlantic? Betting pools are here. I'll make my worldwide calls later on. Ryan1000 21:20, November 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * I really want more from this upcoming season; 2014 was a good start. I predict...18 total depressions, 16 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, all with an ACE of ~194 units. Also, I want this season to be dead quiet at first before becoming a nightmare season. See more information here... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, November 28, 2014 (UTC)

It's ALMOST THE NEW YEAR!!!! :D well, it is in Australia.... rarity is best pony 19:21, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
The first cape-verde wave of the season to be invested this far east is here. It could become something in the long run, though conditions don't look good for it in the near-future as it gradually moves away from Africa and into the heart of the SAL. 10/30 for now. Ryan1000 18:08, July 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * If this is the same system, it's down to 0/0. What a fail! The Atlantic is too hostile, it's taking so long to get Danny. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:48, August 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now it's down and out. Steve, believe it or not, in terms of storms, we are about a month ahead of climatology and well ahead of last year. However, we have yet to see a hurricane in the Atlantic. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:14, August 2, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Near Florida
A new AOI has formed in Apalachee Bay, very close to Florida, and is producing limited shower activity per the NHC. Upper-level winds are not going to be conductive for development as the system treks over land these next few days. Regardless, chances of formation are 10% for both the next two and five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:17, August 2, 2015 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
invest'd. i'd say 10/0 for this.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:45, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It won't develop...it'll just be a rainy day for portions of the southeast. Better to put it at 0/0. Ryan1000 15:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I agree, it's just a failed invest. It just won't ever develop, and will instead just bring rainy conditions to the southeast. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:57, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds will likely kill all chances of 95L developing. However, since portions of the Southeast are in drought, there can still be some benefits from this invest. On the contrary, as Bob Henson notes, Tampa has gotten some four inches of rain in five hours from 95L, and this has caused some water rescues to be executed. So I wouldn't call 95L the worst fail ever. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:21, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * uh oh... it has 40/40 chances of development. i'd say 40/70 because of the organization. Danny for tonight anyone? EDIT: it has ongoing recon.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:31, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * The invest has actually shot down to 10/10 over the past several hours. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found gale-force winds well to the southeast and east of its center. It's also inching closer to land as we speak, and it only has a short window to become something as of now. In fact, it may not ever develop. All it'll do now is that it'll bring some rain showers to the Carolinas. It would have to pull a Jose (2011) to become a TC at this point, but that has the lowest chance ever of happening. I would appreciate it if the Atlantic could produce a C1+ hurricane before my birthday! The currently occurring El Nino is just making the basin pretty hostile, and I hope this season won't get as pathetic as 2013 was. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:54, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, it might be even worse than 2013. CSU and NOAA lowered their seasonal predictions today and now call for a season with only 8 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 1 major (CSU), and 6-10 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, and 1 major (NOAA). This could be one of the quietest seasons ever, if that pans out. As of now though, this pretty much sums up the Atlantic. Ryan1000 21:11, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, then this would suck. It would break the curse of hyperactive seasons occurring in half-decade years like 2005 and 1995. And, lol, nice video. Once the Atlantic gets going towards its peak, I hope we see a major hurricane! -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:41, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * This remnants of this storm passed through me! Hurricane Cardozo2 23:45, August 11, 2015 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Another wave coming off of Africa now, this is at 30/40 as it's expected to head west towards the Caribbean over the next 5 days. But with the terrible shear environment the Caribbean has had this season, it probably won't get too big there. But it could become Danny nonetheless. Ryan1000 15:11, August 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * 50/60. Looks a little better than it did earlier today. We're probably going to see this become Danny before it reaches the islands, but it won't last long when it gets in the shear-ridden Caribbean, unless it turns north before reaching there and heads out to sea (in which case, it could become a major). Ryan1000 19:01, August 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * I was surprised this wave was even active when it showed up on the NHC outlook. Organization has continued to improve in 96L, and the agency is stating the invest likely will become a TD in a couple days or so. Personally, I would like to see a Hurricane Danny out of this, as we have had only a streak of moderate TS's this season so far, but it is all dependent on the environment. Chances of formation are still 50% for the next 48 hours, but now 70% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:58, August 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's looking more likely it'll pass by the northern Lesser Antilles in the long run and out to sea from there, assuming it becomes a depression or Danny in the next day or two. If that happens and Danny-to be becomes a hurricane in the long run, then the 2009 and 1991 Danny's will remain the only ones that didn't become hurricanes, but none of Danny's incarnations exceeded category 1 strength. On the other hand, if this stays weak and doesn't become named soon, it'll make it into the Caribbean, which, as I said before, hasn't been particularly kind to TC's thus far this season, and still isn't right now either. Ryan1000 14:40, August 17, 2015 (UTC)

remember that 96L is in the same area as 92' Andrew. (also El Niño) so it has a chance of being maybe a 15% of getting major.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:31, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * That's a little scary, because honestly, we don't want to see another Florida disaster in the long run. I don't see that happening though, but you never know what could happen here in the really long run. Now, as of the last time I checked NHC, the invest is currently 60/80. I would really love to see this turn into a Hurricane Danny, because the Atlantic needs some stronger storms IMO, and this one has the greatest chance in the long run to become a hurricane compared to other storms this season. At least we're seeing an Atlantic invest that could potentially not fail. :) -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 03:03, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Organization has continued in 96L, and it looks like a tropical storm already on satellite imagery. Chances of formation are now 90% for both the next two and five days. Also, as much as I want to go against Odile's comment about Andrew (the hurricane), I agree with her. This is about the same time of the year as well Andrew developed, and it moved northwestward, somewhat like 96L is doing right now. Additionally, conditions seemed to be favorable off the U.S. East Coast in 1992, possibly fueling the hurricane's RI, and in 2015, this same area is the most conductive for development. However, I do not think 96L will be as strong as Andrew, and Florida has taken many measures to avoid a repeat of that monster. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:00, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
BREAKING NEWS! we have our first cape-verde storm of the year!  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:52, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

We have depression. this one has a chance for (hopefully) major status.

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  16:05, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

i hope this doens't fail like last year's 2L  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:19, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * I don't see it failing. The NHC, in fact, takes this up towards hurricane strength by week's end. Would be awesome to see an Atlantic storm not failing for once, but the Leewards/Windwards are in potential threat territory in the long run. A re-Andrew would be scary but I doubt that would materialize. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:59, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Danny
I'm honestly surprised that we managed to avoid repeating 1997's silent August, lol. 35 kts/1008 mbar as of now. Forecast to reach Category 2 intensity (85 kts) by the end of the forecast period, by then pointed directly at the Lesser Antilles. This could get interesting... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

yeah. this can have a shot of being major. I hope we don't see a year full of failures.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:02, August 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Man, the late forecast period with this thing is looking a bit bleak, it looks like the ridge north of Danny will be strengthening and force it farther west instead of stay weak and pull it north just before it reaches the islands and out to sea, which happened to several other storms over the past 5 years, so it's more likely to go into the Caribbean. Worse, it could be a strong category 2 hurricane by that point, which could mean severe damage for parts of the lessers. Though it's not moving particularly fast, and the environment there is only marginally favorable right now, a category 2 hurricane there is all it takes to see some heavy impacts. The last time the Caribbean saw a cat 2 hurricane hit the islands like that was Tomas in 2010, which didn't hit until late October, although Gonzalo of last year, despite it's lower cat 1 intensity, did knock up some of the upper lessers pretty good before hitting Bermuda. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hasn't intensified beyond 45 kts/1000 mbar, forecast peak lowered to 70 kts (down 20 from earlier!), noted possibility of dissipation in 5 days. Dry air strikes again... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:14, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * It really sucks that the Atlantic is raging with all this dry air. This El Nino must, obviously, be why. Why can't you ever produce a decent fish major, Atlantic? It's been...quite a while since that happened. Danny is just predicted to become maybe a minor hurricane, and then threaten the Lesser Antilles as a weaker storm. Well, let's be glad this could become a hurricane, and since it is threatening land, not a monster major dedicated to making the lives of those in the Lesser Antilles and beyond a potential living hell. =) -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 05:49, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Whoa whoa whoa, ATCF indicates that Danny has apparently been strengthening all this time, and is nearly a hurricane as I speak: AL, 04, 2015082012,, BEST, 0, 123N, 444W, 60, 992, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1011, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DANNY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013 --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:12, August 20, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Danny
...and now it is a hurricane! 65 kts as of now, forecast peak back up to 75. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:50, August 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was pretty unexpected that it became a hurricane this soon. I think it might peak at about 90 or so mph before it strikes the Lesser Antilles by the beginning of next week. The Lesser Antilles still need to watch out for potential impacts, but it should be degenerated once it reaches the U.S. though. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:29, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * If the current forecast pans out, it'll be a TS when it reaches the northern Lesser Antilles, move over Hispaniola in 4-5 days, and die by then, kinda like Emily '11, and Ana/Erika '09 did. Maybe it won't be that threatening after all. Ryan1000 21:11, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Man, Danny is really small, but it looks good. Maybe it does have a chance at cat 2 before reaching the Lessers, but due to it's small size, it's very prone to dry air to the northwest of the storm and it may not last very long as a hurricane when it passes through the islands. Ryan1000 12:05, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * Category 2 per ATCF, and Danny's strongest incarnation to date: AL, 04, 2015082112,, BEST, 0, 138N, 478W, 85, 980, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 10, 10, 15, 1011, 150, 10, 105, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DANNY, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:22, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * New advisory puts Danny at 90 kts/976 mbar... come on Danny, become a major, as long as you weaken enough by the time you reach the Lessers not to do major damage! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:46, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * Danny really is small. There is a comparison between Danny and Tracy at the HHW wiki, so Danny could be one of the smallest hurricanes ever. Now we should witness this system strengthening more as the weekend comes, and hopefully it successfully reaches major status before striking the Lessers. I agree with Dylan that if it reaches major status that it weakens down significantly before striking the islands. But its small size would make it more susceptible to dry air and shear, so it might struggle slightly to reach major status, but I still think it's really possible and likely to happen. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:52, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Danny
I don't think anyone saw that coming.-- Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  17:56, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

Me too. --Hurricanes are awesome (talk) 20:11, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Eh, I thought it had a shot at this intensity when I saw how well-organized this tiny little thing was yesterday, since small storms can intensify quickly but can weaken just as fast. 974 mbars is a bit high for a cat 3 though, I don't think there have been any ATL majors that have had a pressure this high before. Good news is Danny is still forecast to weaken down to a tropical storm when it hits the Lessers. Hopefully that happens. EDIT: Also, fixed that silly error in the active storms header. Ryan1000 21:12, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * i think that Danny was briefly a C4 earlier on the day... <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:17, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * I doubt it, since the NHC only has him at 115 mph currently. At maximum, I would say it might have been up to about 125 mph. Well, Danny is just so tiny, and I was shocked it got to major status already. But any encounter with unfavorable conditions could rip it apart easily, since it is just so small! I still don't even see an eye on satellite imagery, but this really is just a powerful little thing. It may be powerful now, but don't be surprised if Danny suddenly collapses a lot by the time the Lesser Antilles is supposed to get the brunt of the storm. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:00, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * O__O Wut? How the hell did that happen?? Danny is now stronger than both of the two typhoons out there right now at the moment, even though they reached cat 4 and cat 5 earlier.  leeboy100 My Talk! 23:45, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Leeboy, Danny is quite a small system, with gale-force winds extending just 60 miles from the center. In addition, it has built up a strong convection over the past few days, which allowed it to become this strong in the face of conditions that may have otherwise killed it. You can scroll through Jeff Masters's blog posts if you would like to know more about Danny's environment. Anyway, I am myself impressed Danny managed to become a major, but it won't last long; the NHC notes its eye is already collapsing on satellite imagery, and it likely will be downgraded in a few hours. Odile, would you mind explaining to me the evidence which makes you think Danny was a Category 4? The highest wind measurements I saw from that recon flight were 111 knots (~125 mph), which is still a strong Category 3 at best (I'm not good with "flight level" stuff, so...). Due to the predicted building of the STR as the trough over the Central Atlantic lessens its influence, Danny should continue steering westward towards the Greater Antilles, which may prompt some watches and warnings in the next couple days. Since this hurricane is rather small, there may be abrupt and major intensity fluctuations, which will make it quite difficult to forecast. Nevertheless, dry air and upper-level winds should keep Danny from reintensifying, and the NHC brings it to the Caribbean as a weakening TS. However, depending on how rapidly the hurricane weakens, I think there is a chance it could dissipate completely before reaching land, and thus cause much fewer potential impacts. And here's a little trivia to end my post - according to Jeff Masters, Danny is the strongest hurricane observed in the deep Atlantic tropics since Julia five years ago (which makes you realize how difficult it has recently been for this basin to produce strong systems). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:36, August 22, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Danny (2nd time)
Two fun facts: 1.) Danny is the first pre-September major hurricane in the Atlantic since Irene in 2011, and the earliest in-season since Bill in 2009; 2.) Danny is the southernmost Atlantic major hurricane since Fred in 2009. Danny has now powered down to Category 2 intensity (95 kts/977 mbar), but its run as a major was nice while it lasted! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:30, August 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now down to 100 mph; forecast takes it over the uppermost lessers as a TS and then eventually weakening to a depression as it passes north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Ryan1000 13:03, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast advisory puts Danny at 90 mph, so it just continues to weaken. The Lesser Antilles could feel some impacts, but not too severe. It is predicted to survive as a depression when it gets to the Bahamas, and its remnants seem likely to reach Florida. But dang, it was awesome to witness it getting to major status and being so small. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:42, August 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * Advisory 17A: 85 mph/985 mb. A Hurricane Hunters air force aircraft is approaching the system, and a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of the Leewards. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:54, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * And Advisory 18 barely makes Danny a hurricane: 65 kts, 991 mbar. The mighty have fallen, but considering the impacts which could have taken place had Danny hit anywhere at peak intensity (unless it pulled a Bret '99), it's probably for the best. I'm just surprised Danny weakened as quickly as it did. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:52, August 22, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Danny (2nd time)
55 kts/997 mbar, which is pretty amazing since Danny was a major only 27 hours ago (even taking its small size into consideration). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:20, August 23, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was really fast how this weakened, due to its incredibly small size. The current advisory has the system at 50 mph/1004 mbars. Now, the Lessers should get some heavy rain showers and inclement weather, but impacts shouldn't be too severe. Danny is expected to weaken to depression status tomorrow, and survive to Hispaniola before dissipating completely. The fact that it became a major made this storm worth tracking! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:34, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * By me, Danny will curve over Cuba and hit Alabama. Hurricanes are awesome 23:13, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's down to a minimal 40 mph tropical storm and the center of Danny is now exposed southeast of the main convection. It might only be a mere depression when it passes through the Lessers at this point...Ryan1000 03:13, August 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yep, and the current forecast kills Danny before it can reach Hispaniola. Any impacts to the Lessers at this point will be minor. I think it's about time we begin posting our farewells to the storm, as it's about almost dead currently. Bye, Danny, it was fantastic how you made it to major status unexpectedly! :) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 04:28, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Danny
Looks like I made a good call, Danny is now nearly gone. It might be a lousy day for some of the islands but it won't be anything they can't handle. Ryan1000 13:08, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Danny
And now it is gone. Hats off to one of the more interesting Atlantic storms I've tracked in recent years. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:00, August 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Farewell, Danny! Yes, it was one of the most interesting storms to track in a while. The fact that it became a major while still in the MDR made this storm interesting to follow. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:45, August 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * It insults me that they bothered to put it's remnants back up on the TWO with a 0/0 chance of redeveloping...seriously NHC, it's dead, Danny won't be coming back. Ryan1000 03:12, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Aww come on! He's now Danny Phantom? I wanted him to meet Sandy!  rarity is best pony 18:23, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: Near Bermuda
0/30 for now. could become Erika. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:02, August 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * It'll probably be a re-Claudette if it does so. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * I believe this system is 20/60 currently. An Erika is possible out of this, but we might just see a re-Claudette and another weakling. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:33, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still 20/60, and it might be Erika by the beginning of next week. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:53, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
This AOI is now invested per Wunderground. It is quite big and streched out compared to Danny, and may briefly have a chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone in the next few days. However, it should not harm land, aside from possibly Bermuda. BTW, chances of formation have dropped to 40% in the next five days for 97L. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:45, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * 20/30 currently. There is still some potential though. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:46, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, the invest has lost all of its potential, since its chances of formation have dropped to near 0% for both 2 and 5 days. It is expected to merge with a frontal system, so that explains it. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:36, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Yep, we failed to see this become anything. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:42, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Emerging from Africa
The hurricane center is monitoring a new AOI coming right off the African coast, which is a new well-organized tropical wave. It's 10/30 at this current moment, and this could be a potential candidate for Fred. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:33, August 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * Reminds me of the beginnings of the last Fred we had in 2009, this'll probably remain at sea like that storm did but it won't intensify as fast. Although, it could become strong in the long run. Ryan1000 21:12, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * It does remind me of that Fred incarnation, since they are starting in similar locations. I think (future) Fred could follow in the footsteps of its predecessor, and hopefully become the season's next hurricane sometime next week. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:55, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Jeff Masters mentioned something about a convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) which helped enhance Danny's moisture and convection. If this AOI comes together quick enough, it may benefit from what is left of the CCKW influence. Chances of formation are now 20% for the next 48 hours and 40% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:45, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * 30/60. It has become better organized and I hope we see a Fred that repeats its previous incarnation. That would be pretty cool, I'd say. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:50, August 22, 2015 (UTC)

70/80! Okay guys...here comes Erika. It looks like it'll follow in the footsteps of Danny, or maybe be a potential Cape Verde-type storm. Now we know for sure this won't be Fred, but it will be Erika, due to the other system near Bermuda suffering its fate. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:38, August 23, 2015 (UTC)

(All the below text is mine, BTW. ~Steve)

From the latest TWO:

By late this week, atmospheric conditions are expected to become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation.

Ok, don't be telling me that this system will just turn out to be a weakling stealing the name "Erika". >_<

I still have hope for this system though, and hope it tries its hardest to reach hurricane status! I'd hate to see another fail, and this statement from the latest TWO suggests some not-so-good news about the system's future. It would be both disappointing, and frustrating to have to deal with a name waste that would just get ripped apart by unfavorable conditions by week's end. But I believe it has enough time to get respectably strong, and not fail to epic proportions. Hopefully it's a strong TS, if not a weak hurricane!

Okay, I am the Psychic Guesser. By the time I wake up tomorrow morning, this invest will be up on the NHC site as a TD. Hopefully I'm correct! :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 04:25, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
I put this header because I think it was already invested a while ago. I checked WUnderground, and it has been invested! I got my forecast wrong... because it's at 90/90 and not up as a TD yet. It should be one by the afternoon, most likely. Maybe I was being slightly too optimistic about the invest last night :P --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:38, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erika
'Tis here. 40 kts/1003 mbar as of the debut advisory. Currently expected to peak at 60 kts, and to succeed where Danny failed by surviving through the Lessers. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:52, August 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yep, with Danny's death comes Erika's life. It'll probably be able to survive and make it north of the Lessers since Danny took in (and died to) some of the unfavorable conditions in Erika's path. Ryan1000 03:21, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks like it should survive. Then the forecast takes it through the Bahamas as a minor hurricane. Then it might threaten the U.S. next week D: Stay tuned... --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:23, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's threatening the Lesser Antilles as of right now. Most of the islands in its path are under a TS warning, and it could become quite impacting. Florida is also being threatened in the long run, and the current forecast  strengthens it up to hurricane status once it reaches Florida. Hopefully it doesn't get so damaging over in the Sunshine State. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:07, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hope this is no re-Katrina. Remember to reply back on my talk page! Hurricanes are awesome 18:19, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hopefully she doesn't get too excited by Florida.  rarity is best pony 18:23, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

There's a lot of uncertainty to the late forecast period of this thing, it could hit southern Florida as a hurricane like it was earlier forecasted, but now the models are trending further north to a landfall somewhere along the Carolinas or even recurving out to sea if that trough off the east coast holds it's own over the next several days. That, and an ULL over Cuba could keep it in check with some shear as it passes through the Bahamas. None of the models make it particularly strong though, the chief effect of Erika (rainfall) will be welcome to the drought-parched southeast if it makes landfall. Ryan1000 03:02, August 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * Man, Erika is really defying the NHC forecast and the model predictions. It was forecast to move west-northwest over the virgin islands and just north of Puerto Rico at this point in time, but it's just having a tough time getting it's act together and it's still heading due west. If this keeps up, it might miss PR to the south completely and make it to the western Caribbean and strengthen there, or it could crash into Hispaniola and die out like several other storms did over the past several years, including her previous 2009 incarnation. This is becoming tricky to forecast...Ryan1000 17:12, August 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * After briefly reaching 45 knots (50 mph) a day ago, shear and dry air is keeping Erika in check, but if it survives Hispaniola, it could become a stronger system over the Bahamas. Its current intensity is 40 knots (45 mph)/1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). Also, Jeff Masters noted in his latest blog post that the storm is more likely to survive because its thunderstorm activity is moistening its surrounding environment, posing a greater threat for U.S. regions. Also, intensity will play a role in motion, as a weaker Erika will be more likely to affect Florida in the long run. I personally believe the storm should recurve before penetrating deep into the state. On a side note, Jeff Masters discusses the possibilities of Erika's steering ridges collapsing and allowing the storm to drift off the U.S. East Coast. While the Southeast does need some rain, this may be a little too much for them. Back in the Caribbean, numerous rain and wind reports have been reported in the wake of Erika, especially in Dominica, where nearly nine inches of precipitation was measured at Canefield Airport and four were killed because of mudslides. More information and pictures can be found here. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:49, August 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * I don't think that Erika will strengthen over eastern Florida. the LLC is just south of Puerto Rico and it's clearly distrupted by the terrain. then Erika will be destroyed by Hispanola's higher terrain. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:22, August 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * Erika is no longer forecast to become a hurricane so the Florida hurricane drought continues at 3,596 days. Also, I myself might be affected by Erika, even though I live in the Panhandle, I wouldn't count on it though.  leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 09:31, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't even think it'll reach Florida at this point, very few tropical storms have ever survived a landfall on Hispaniola and lived to tell the tale. Like many a storm in previous years, it'll probably make landfall there and die out before ever reaching the east coast. Ryan1000 11:18, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * The reports from Dominica are frankly chilling. At least 35 people may have been killed by flooding and mudslides; if that is confirmed, it would make Erika the deadliest tropical cyclone in Dominica since Hurricane David 36 years ago. Erika could be retired at this rate... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:03, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Personally I'm rooting for Erika to come here around central Florida, it'd be nice to have a 3 day weekend if it is even a formidable threat (yes, I live in the Tampa metro area). I feel as if chances are Erika could degenerate into an open wave and regenerate later closer to Florida? I do know there are very warm waters off of Florida's west coast. Nothing will surprise me anymore with her. Owen 23:09, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Erika is now making landfall in Hispaniola as I speak, and they could likely get some large impacts and plenty of deaths. This system is pinned at 50 mph/1009 mbars (unusually high pressure!) and a tropical storm warning surrounds the island containing the countries of Dominican Republic and Haiti. Dylan, that death toll in Dominica is truly shocking; a tropical storm is usually not that deadly! Not to sound racist or anything, but Erika must really hate the residents of Dominica. Erika, shame on you for doing that! Now, at this point, it'd be frankly shocking if the system even survives Hispaniola and Cuba without turning into a remnant low. The forecast skirts it along the Cuba coastline, so Erika should have a really tough time surviving for real. If it does survive, Florida may not get much at all! I remember when we were a little frightened of it being a Florida threat in the long run. Now, just watch it struggle in front of our eyes! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:41, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Erika looks to be surviving Hispaniola (although I don't want to jinx this either and have further frustration) and I'm really interested to see what the island looks like in terms of damage, let alone if the circulation survives and reaches Florida. Dominica got torn up pretty badly the other day and the Prime Minister stated that on that island alone there's likely tens of millions of dollars of damage. Considering Hispaniola is highly susceptible to deadly flooding and mudslides, realistically thinking I can't imagine the outlook being too bright. Erika is beginning to have a legitimate chance of joining Allison next spring. Owen 04:58, August 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * I have to say this storm has been one of the most difficult to track accurately. I've done three center jumps in my best track now. It's hard to tell if the circulation survived its track over Dominican. My best guess is, if the surface low survived, it is in between Haiti and Cuba, however, there appears to also be several other surface spirals infused with Erika and the wave. I'm leaning towards an open circulation at this time. Supportstorm (talk) 08:20, August 29, 2015 (UTC)

ATCF is declaring this dead. After what happened in Dominica, good riddance. AL, 05, 2015082912,, BEST, 0, 213N, 756W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ERIKA, M, I should note also that the [http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/al05/al052015.public_a.018.shtml? latest advisory] more or less declared that Erika was dying. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:51, August 29, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Erika
Just announced in the form of a header on NHC's website. Special advisory coming soon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:14, August 29, 2015 (UTC)

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS NO MORE! --<font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">Party? OH HELL YES!!!  14:09, August 29, 2015 (UTC)

Erika's gone... slight chance of regenerating in the Gulf though. (I hope not, it has wreaked havoc Dominica already...) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:29, August 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * There's gonna be shear associated with the trough in the eastern Gulf right now, Ex-Erika is more likely to be absorbed by that than regenerate and hit the U.S. Ryan1000 16:02, August 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, I don't think we will see a US strike from ex-Erika. Its remnants, like said above, will just get absorbed before it could even reach the Gulf coast. But it was fast how it degenerated. The mountainous island containing Dominican Republic and Haiti must really killed the storm.


 * I also think there could be a chance of retirement. Don't be surprised if Erika pulls an Allison due to the destruction and deaths in Dominica. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:13, August 29, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: Over Africa
The NHC is monitoring a new tropical wave currently expected to emerge off of Africa and become something in the long term. It's pinned at 10/30 as of the latest TWO. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:57, August 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * Down to 0/20. It's going to be in only marginally favorable conditions, so development could be slow, but I still think it might be Fred in the long run. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:40, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Currently, development is looking unlikely. 10/10. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:48, August 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now 0/0. Won't become anything. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:24, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Right, said Fred.  rarity is best pony 18:24, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * searches for TS fred on google* --<font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">Party? OH HELL YES!!!  19:25, August 26, 2015 (UTC)




 * High-five me, Puffle! I think he's busy in the Mystery Machine trying to take steroids to become the next major hurricane of the Atlantic, right? blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 21:36, August 26, 2015 (UTC)[[


 * If I'm not mistaken, this AOI has fallen victim to the SAL and El Niño atmosphere of the Atlantic. And Puffle, that Google result perfectly describes this system. :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:56, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * This AOI is just another victim of the Great 2015 Atlantic Anti-TC Conditions Producing Beast. Puffle, that image describes it perfectly! :D Though I don't think it was ever invested, lol. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:44, August 28, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Over Mali
Just to be a little more specific...Anyway, this AOI is forecast to emerge over the Atlantic in a couple days or so. While the NHC says slow development of this system may be possible over the next few days, I believe it will just fall victim to the wasteland it will face, assuming the CCKW's legacy has vanished. Nevertheless, chances of formation are currently near 0% for the next two days and 20% for the next five. Figglehorn, save yourself for something epic, please! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:56, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * The ECWMF/GFS//UKMET all seem to be on board on development of this, and have what would be Fred over the Cape Verde Islands in a few days worth of time. Owen 23:11, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * This system does seem to have some potential to become Fred over the long run, but the question is if it will ever survive the hostile conditions scattered throughout the basin. It might be possible, but we'll just have to wait and see how this system turns out. And Andrew, you would mention that annoying kid! I'd prefer Freddy Fazbear, lol. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:47, August 28, 2015 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Invested and up to 50/70. It'll turn northwest immediately and hit Cape Verde, then remain at sea. But it could be strong on the way, It'd be pretty cool if Fred repeats his 2009 incarnation, more or less. Ryan1000 16:07, August 29, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
While the Atlantic continues to be boring and inactive, we're already deep into the season. This means it's about time to do retirements. Some people like Dylan might complain about starting this section early, but I'm just a bit impatient and want to start this section today. So, without further ado...
 * Nah, we're late enough into the season that I'm okay with starting retirement predictions now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:55, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * I began these predictions on August 9th (my time, not UTC) though, so that's why I was worried it might have been a bit too early and you would complain. Now, it's certainly a ripe time for these predictions. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:35, August 20, 2015 (UTC)

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))


 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - It was the earliest U.S. strike on record, but the damages and deaths won't earn it retirement.


 * Bill: <font color="#77B">2.5% - 7 deaths were caused throughout its path, but damage was minimal. See you in 2021!


 * Claudette: 0% - I consider it an epic fail. The only impacts were rainfall in North Carolina (pre-development) and in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland.


 * Danny: <font color="#AAC">1% - Danny was a tiny major hurricane in a somewhat southerly location, but impacts to the Lessers are just minor at best. He'll come back in 2021.


 * Erika: ? - Predictions will be released once the storm has dissipated.

Anyone else want to do theirs now? You can use my color idea if you like. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:17, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

My retirements: +<font color="#666666">0.5%
 * Ana:  0% — Nah, a tropical storm


 * Bill y : 15% — A severe tropical storm on a scale, well nah.

Hurricane Cardozo2 23:45, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Claudette: <font color="#666666">0.5% — Who would retire this?


 * D :D odile is back!

•An n a and Elsa : NaN% - meh...

•Bill Clinton : 0.5% - meh...

•Claudette: NaN% - u wot m8?

•Danny: NaN% - yes. just yes.

•Erika: ???% - active <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:32, August 16, 2015 (UTC)

Puffle is here with more lame science stuff Retirements at a glance!!1

Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - Surprised me to see a pre-season storm, especially with an El Nino.

Bill: <font color="#Acc">2.7% -Sorry Billy, you're still not ready

Claudette: <font color="#AAC">0.1% - Affected very little land, and was the worst storm ever.

Danny: <font color="#AAC">>1% Okay Danny, I like you, but no. Just no.

Erika: ?? - Could possibly regenerate, I have nothing for now.

We don't have anything worthy of retirement yet, but Erika might be in the long run. As of now, here's my calls... That's all for now. Ryan1000 11:39, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana - 2% - Minor damage and an indirect death. It was not nothing, but not enough to retire it either.
 * Bill - 5% - Also minimal damage, but 7 deaths. A bit worse than Ana, but this was no Allison, let alone Erin, for Texas.
 * Claudette - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Danny - 0% - It was nice to see how this managed to pull off a major in the open Atlantic despite otherwise unfavorable conditions, but like Don '11, it fell flat on it's face as soon as it hit land. The Lessers suffered nothing from this, other than some beneficial rain.
 * Erika - 55% - This might seem generous, but with as many as 51 deaths with 16 million in damage is nothing to laugh at for the island of Dominica, if those numbers are true this would be the worst storm to hit the island since David in 1979. So it has a decent chance of going.

My turn :D leeboy100 My Talk! 09:14, August 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana: 0%- minimal damage, 1 indirect death, this won't be enough for retirement.
 * Bill: 5%- Caused flooding and 7 deaths, but it's not likely it will be retired
 * Claudette: 0%- At least we got some Atlantic activity.
 * Danny:0%- An impressive storm, I wasn't <span id="cke_bm_65S" style="display:none;">       <span id="cke_bm_67S" style="display:none;">  even expecting it to become a hurricane, let alone a category 3! It didn't hit land though,
 * Erika: currently active​

Post-season changes
You know it's bad when the latest storm's TCR is out, and we're not even halfway with the season.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:23, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah...with Claudette's TCR just released we may have to open the TCR section of the betting pools early again this year. We'll wait until later though. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is proof the Atlantic is once again sucking this year. That is, unless the NHC is beginning the TCR's earlier than usual each season no matter how active it is. That could be a possibility also, but for now, it's likely it is starting early because of the season being inactive. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:37, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana could be upgraded to a Cat 1 because of this vid:Tropical Storm Ana 01L (2015)canes are awesome (talk) 20:16, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

saying by this. An n a and Elsa was possibly a hurricane.<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:23, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * This may not be true, because Ana's windspeeds may not have been hurricane-force (over 74 mph), because just having an eye doesn't mean you have a hurricane. --<font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">Party? OH HELL YES!!!  19:30, August 26, 2015 (UTC)