Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season/July

AOI:ECMWF storm near CPac
Although there's nothing there right now, by this weekend, another area of low pressure is expected to form near the CPac's area of responsibility, and it's at 40% for 5 days. Dolores by next week, anyone? Ryan1000 20:35, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * this reminds me of Upana in 2000, formed in July too.  totally destructive  | get hyper! 22:16, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Upana? Didn't expect that storm to get thrown around. This is the first of another batch of storm the ECMWF develops. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:07, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
oh my. 2 invests developed. this one is going to enter the CPac  totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:44, July 3, 2015 (UTC)​

Tropical Depression Two-C
Here, but 12 hours overdue. CPHC did something right for a change. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:23, July 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Iune
...3 named storms in July alone! might a sign of an super-el niño. it's a single thunderstorm! the cpac Marco.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  22:38, July 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * As far as I am aware, this is the earliest third CPAC storm of a season by far; the old record was held by 1984's Tropical Storm Moke, which formed on September 4(!!!!) of that year. At this rate, 1982's record for most CPAC storms (four) won't last much longer... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:24, July 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * We've still got a ways to go to match or beat the all-time record of 7 storms in July of the 1985 season, but July typically sees a total of 4 storms. However, with 3 storms already before the 2nd week is over, we might get a close second to 1985. Ryan1000 12:16, July 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dang, this is just insane. This is the most active I have seen the CPac basin be since August 2013. Well, as of now, the storm is forecast to remain very weak, and thus be a weakling. If this year carries on like that, we could even break 1982's record! 😯 -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:38, July 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is most active the CPAC has ever been. Let me list a bunch of records. First of all, 3 CPAC storms have never been co-active. The Central Pacific Hurricane Seasons lasts from June 1 to November 30. No CPAC TC has even formed there in June nor named there. Inside the hurricane season, the earliest forming CPAc name is Ela. Second earliest is Halola and third earliest is Iune. In addition, prior to 2015, there had been only 3 CPAC named systems in July. Well, 2015 has had 3. This also marks the closest span (3 days, old record was 1, 19848) 3 CPAC storms have been named. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:49, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Iune
Close to dead now.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:25, July 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * I was waiting for the CPAC to become active again, but these past few days were just crazy. However, aside from being the earliest 3rd CPAC-named storm in an EPAC season, Iune won't do much else. Its LLCC is completely exposed, and there is only a small pocket of convection left. Winds are currently 30 knots (35 mph) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). As a ridge builds to the north of Iune, it should turn generally SW into a region of increasing dry air, which is already affecting the system. Despite some models like SHIPS showing steady reintensification, judging by Iune's appearance, I won't be surprised if the storm completely dissipates within the next day, faster than the 96 hours the CPHC forecast. Speaking of which, their visual forecast erroneously shows the depression regenerating into a TC at the end of the forecast period (which I wish was the case). Well, you tried, Iune. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:37, July 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * And as soon as I type that, the CPHC releases their new advisory on Iune. It's only getting worse. Dvorak estimates have prompted a decrease of winds to 25 knots (30 mph) with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). Even with increasing SST values, dry air has basically been Iune's death sentence, and in agreement with my above hours, the CPHC acknowledges the system could be gone within several hours. Oh, well... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:44, July 13, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Iune
Iune degenerated a couple days ago, but its remains are still alive. They are currently around 170W, and despite increased thunderstorm activity, likely will be prevented from becoming tropical again by its surrounding environment. Chances of regeneration are currently 10% for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:44, July 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Ex-Iune is closing in on the Dateline, and likely will cross it without significant development. Chances of formation are now near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:09, July 17, 2015 (UTC)

AOI:ECMWF storm #2
ECMWF has another area forming around the same time as the above. Could not develop due to interaction though. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:07, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
this one is behind 95E. could become a long track one  totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:44, July 3, 2015 (UTC
 * This one looks a lot better than the one that's in the CPac right now, it wouldn't surprise me if this becomes our next major hurricane. Pretty typical in July, but it'll still be fun to watch. Ryan1000 20:47, July 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * isnt this the GFS storm that crosses 3 basins?  ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 21:19, July 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * There is no system in the CPAC. This a possible Hawaii threat as the ECMWF shows. The one behind it could be another long-tracker, a bit early for this time of year. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:35, July 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Sorry, thought the other had moved there by now, it will soon though. But don't expect 95E to do much anyway, conditions for it are deteriorating, this one though is far more likely to become something next week. Also YE, it's not that unusual to see a major hurricane here early in July or late June, especially in a super El Nino year like this one. But they're good to track nonetheless. Ryan1000 05:02, July 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Closer to MX, sure. Not usually this far our as the GFs/ECMWF has this hitting Hawaii long-term. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:33, July 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now at 70/90, and is very likely to become Dolores over the next day or two. Fortunately, most of the reliable models take this north of Hawaii at this point. Surf will still be a threat, but a direct hit is looking less and less likely. Ryan1000 00:41, July 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Models are overdoing ex-95E and thus sending this too far north. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:59, July 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Although it's not impossible it could hit Hawaii (in fact many storms over the past few years have come unusually close to the islands), it'd still be unlikely seeing as how the islands are typically more heavily protected at this time of year by a subtropical ridge to the north and shear from the south. But 96E is still something to watch regardless. Up to 90%. Ryan1000 20:20, July 7, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
and yes. we have an depression, oddly being tracked by the CPHC could become Ela. <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 03:56, July 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's being tracked by the CPac because the storm was upgraded by the NHC just moments before it crossed 140 W. Conditions are favorable enough for it to become Ela, but it probably won't become a hurricane since it will be passing over cooler SST's and some shear as it passes north of Hawaii over the next 4 days. Ryan1000 12:35, July 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * uh. no comments on the organization. pulling an 2012 WPac Maliksi in the organization <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

Tropical Storm Ela
well it got named. hopefully will go poof as Wali last season <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 16:13, July 9, 2015 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Ela
Was only upped due to recon and is gone now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:25, July 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Not surprised, this wasn't too well looking from day 1. But at least it got named, better than nothing at all. Ryan1000 03:43, July 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, this weakling did form in the CPac and thus helping make the activity in that basin literally the most in one month since August 2013. Bye, Ela! 😄 (BTW, I kind of want to use emojis again, and you'll see them clearly if you're viewing with your phone or have this extension for Google Chrome.) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:33, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

01C.HALOLA
See the archive on Halola.

Aoi:GFS storm #3
the GFS develops an possible hurricane or an tropical storm by late next week. <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 01:02, July 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * GFS set on a major out of this in 2 weeks. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:41, July 4, 2015 (UTC)

This one will have to wait quite some time. But it could become Enrique around the middle of the month. Ryan1000 05:03, July 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/50. GFS brings it near MX, but the ECMWF does not. Both call for a majors,while the ECMWF calls for a Cat 5. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * ok. the latest GFS run (12z) makes the future Enrique an  rare california landfall over Los Angeles as an remnant low  <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:41, July 9, 2015 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
70/90. Models have backed off on this, but this could still become a hurricane at least. Tracks hae once again shifted east so it could affect Baja. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:57, July 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think it's more likely to remain offshore, like Dora '11, than pull a Calvin or Eugene and make landfall in Mexico. Ryan1000 03:43, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E
First advisory was issued 8 hours ago but I guess we all got too caught up in Chan-hom and the CPAC explosion. Hope this is the right invest. Forecast to become a Category 2 Hurricane Dolores in a few days. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:19, July 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is, though I think it'll become stronger than a cat 2 off of Mexico. Kinda reminds me of Dora '11 in track, though I don't know if Dolores to-be will get nearly as strong as she did. But I would expect at least a cat 3 here. Ryan1000 01:29, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dolores
Now named Dolores. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:26, July 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is forecast by the NHC site to possibly become a powerful one, and I would say becoming a major isn't out of the question. If the forecast takes it to 95 kts like it currently does, then it could have a shot at becoming a major. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:44, July 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * This is a shoe in for a major and could reach Category 5 status. That is what the top preforming GFS and ECMWF models do with it. Throw out the HWRF since it sucks with slow moving storms since it overdoes upwelling and GFDL is off track wise and has it slamming Baja. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:57, July 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * After being dead for nearly a month, the EPAC has blown up with just five TCs in barely five days. Although most of these systems have been weak, this is nevertheless very impressive to see, especially in July. Anyway, shear seems to be affecting Dolores like the NHC says; everything is displaced to its NE quadrant and the center is barely covered. However, ASCAT data supports winds of 45 knots (50 mph), alongside a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg) at the moment. While Dolores is currently moving generally westward, it should turn more NW as the STR over the United States grabs hold, and eventually move around the STR's western edge. Moreover, this motion could be quite critical in how strong the storm gets, as the NHC notes. Lots of moisture and near 30C SST's should be enough for Dolores to gradually intensify in the face of shear, which is forecasted to be less of an influence in a few days time. While the NHC currently forecasts a peak of 95 knots (110 mph), I would love to see Dolores become a third major. Also, a TS watch is up for the Mexican coast from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes, and heavy surf, as well as a few inches of torrential rain, is expected in the area. Hopefully, this does not become a major issue. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:21, July 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * July is usually a very buy month for the EPAC, especially the early to mid-part of it, when the EPAc reaches its first peak and ramps up quite similar to how the ATL does it late August. It appears that the GFS/GFDL are too bullish with the intensity forecast. GFS in fact brings it to Category 5 status and while GFDL isn't too much bullish due to its easterly track long-term, both models show way too much depending overnight (like 30 mbar's of deepening!). They likely overdoing the effects of a GOT gap event. HWRF/ECMWF looks more reasonable. Also worth noting the peak intensity shown by the NHC may be too late shown, as most of the guidance brings it over cooler waters in a tad over 72 hours, though could be a bit later if it goes more SW than forecast. So far, the storm is a little more S than expected, but N of some GFS runs and the GFDL. Shear is likely to drop off in 36 hours, but it could increase in the short term (you can tell it's stronger than yestersday, even if it is slowly becoming more organized). Just to keep it safe, I wouldn't expect too much over the next 36 hours, maybe no deepening at all. Good news is it's on to a decent start building an core, and it will need to build one within 48 hours, since it's gonna have around 36-48 hours of favorable conditions max if the track holds true. A lot more can happen in that time than people think, so therefore, I still think this is a good bet to peak as a Category 2, 3, or 4 hurricane, but if the storm does not build a core fast enough, it could be weaker. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:53, July 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, July is almost like the EPac's August. We usually see an average of 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane during the month in the EPac, though this year already featured 3 in the CPac, a record for the month, let alone the record period for so early in the season. Assuming we get Enrique from 6-E, we're looking at 5 storms in the month, which is two  storms short of tying 1985's all-time record of 7. With 18 more days left in the month, this season could easily match or beat that record, though 1985 is like the 2005 Atlantic season in the aspect that it holds almost every record for the earliest-numbered storm of the season, with the exception of the first few and last few (since it wasn't as active as '92). Still, 1985 had a 5-storm June, which is the all-time record for the month, just like July of that year. At this time in 1985, the season was up to Guillermo, would get Hilda, Ignacio, and Jimena 9 days later, and would get through Kevin and Linda before the month was over. Ryan1000 00:55, July 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looks for now like one of these storms that intensify even though shear is coming. At least 15 knot of shear, maybe 30-35 knts of shear though will become an issue soon. In the meantime, hopefully, this will try to build an inner core and hopefully will bomb out later on. While it's looking very very nice, and if the shear is stronger than expected, rapid weakening is a possibility. As for EPAC July, my average in my dataset for July I have (so many ways to measure this kind of stuff) 3.7 named storms per July, with ~2 hurricanes and 1-2 majors. FYI, ECMWF does show two more systems in a little over a week. I think we could end up with 8 this month. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:27, July 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well of course I round it up, but 3 to 4 is fine as well. The latest forecast on Dolores takes it to a major hurricane now, and possibly a strong one. Ryan1000 12:13, July 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Getting close to hurricane strength. Forecasts take it to a major hurricane.  leeboy100 My Talk! 18:07, July 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * ATCF has it a hurricane. An eye is trying to form on VIS, and it may be nearing 70 knots, even though the storm has become a little less organized. Honestly, this looks much better than I thought it would today and that is the fact the shear was lower than it is suppose to be today has allowed for continued deepening, though shear right now is preventing ti from bombing out. The next step form here on out is for it to build a good inner core with a closed eyewall. I will say that this is poised to become a beautiful hurricane, since it currently has very cold cloud tops and a very very good moisture envelope and ok but not great outflow channels. Wind shear could reach near 0 knots in a few days, which screams for intensification. I'd be incline to think it would EI in that situation, but SST's are only going to be near 27C and since it is somewhat close to the EPAC SST gradient (Which is more north and not as prominent and sharp as normal due to the record SST's and +PDO), it'd be hard for thick convection to persist, hence I will not forecast Cat 5 (and if it wants to do so, probs needs to do so over 27-28C SST's, but with 0 knots of shear, who knows?), but Cat 3/4 looks like a really good bet and Cat 2 is child's play for it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:48, July 13, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Dolores
Dolores is a category 1 storm now, but the NHC peak forecast still only calls for cat 3. We'll see how things turn out. Ryan1000 02:57, July 14, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Dolores
Bada BOOM, Category 4. 115 kt/944 mbar. Forecast peak upped to 130 kts; at this point, even if Dolores doesn't become a Category 5, it's pretty much bound to surpass Andres as the strongest storm of the season thus far. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:54, July 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, scratch that, Dolores is leveling off per ATCF. We'll see. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:59, July 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * It hit a dry slot and leveled off briefly. Has 24 hours left so we'll see what happens. This storm has however, exceeded all my expectations. Barring more dry air or an ERC, high-end Cat 4 is still doable. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:39, July 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * I think Dolores has done a really nice job in terms of its strength, but unfortunately, it's only expected to retain major status until the end of Thursday, and then level off in intensity from here on out. I only expect a peak of 145 mph at most (maybe... MAYBE with a slight shot at high end C4, but you'd never know until you find out tomorrow or so). But yeah... I agree that dry air may just stop this system, so it may not even reach high-end C4 status. -_- There's still an outside chance though... --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:48, July 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dolores (2nd time)
Dolores was not able to exceed low C4 status, but it briefly became annular-like yesterday. However, being over SST's of 26C, and losing its convection, the storm has significantly weakened to 60 knots (70 mph) with a pressure of 989 mbar (hPa; 29.21 inHg). Dolores is forecast to move WNW around the edge of the STR over Mexico before becoming stationary within a few days. Also, since the storm is moving over cooler waters and increasing shear, it should see its demise within the end of the NHC forecast period, as many models expect. However, surf currently affecting SW Mexico may reach SoCal this weekend, causing potentially dangerous conditions. Stay safe, Steve! :) On a side note, Dolores's attaining of C4 intensity a couple days ago marks the first time in EPAC history three of the first four storms forming east of 140W attained that strength, according to Jeff Masters. Also, for only the third time since 1971, the first four storms in an EPAC season forming east of 140W all became hurricanes. Quite an impressive start, no? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:18, July 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Dolores continues its plummet to rock bottom. Most of its convection is now displaced to the west, and winds are now at 50 knots (60 mph) per the NHC, with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.42 inHg). As Dolores nears the western edge of the STR, its worsening environment will only prompt more weakening, and based off the NHC's words, the storm might degenerate quicker than expected. Although it is forecast to become stationary offshore of California in a few days, Dolores is also predicted to send moisture with a monsoonal trough into Arizona and SoCal, which could cause abnormal rain and flood conditions. However, any impacts should be as bad as, say, Norbert from last year. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:10, July 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * I guess this is why we're now getting thunderstorm conditions around our area. I'll stay safe, these T-storms aren't likely to be that severe anyway. We desperately need this rainfall because of our drought! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:00, July 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Moisture from Dolores is already spreading over the SW United States, and flooding conditions are to be expected. As for the storm itself, it is over SST's of 22-23C and is losing its convection fairly rapidly. Winds are down to 35 knots (40 mph) with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg) per the NHC. Although complete dissipation is expected within a few days, as the NHC notes, if Dolores does not redevelop any deep convection soon, it might degenerate sooner. Nevertheless, as the system tracks closer to Southern California, heavy surf could also become an issue. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:02, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dolores
Adios, amiga! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:35, July 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Dolores was an amazing storm to track, being (one of) the earliest 3rd Category 4's in an EPAC season ever and delivering needed moisture to the Southwestern U.S. Also, as a side note, when a storm goes through intensity changes, can we make a better effort to change the active storms template accordingly? Sometimes, what I find on the forum is different than what I see on the template. Thank you! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:05, July 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I agree, it was pretty amazing to track. It was nice that it became a Cat. 4, even if it was just a weak one in that category. For the last time: Bye, Dolores! Adios, amiga, it was good tracking you! (lol) Also, rainfall from the remnants of Dolores might continue affecting me during the next couple days. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:24, July 19, 2015 (UTC)

altough Dolores is mostly dead. it has caused some major flooding in San Diego and on Tijuana. the remnants of Dolores are expected to linger in the SoCal area for a few days. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  00:07, July 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dolores bringing some record rains to Califronia without causing major flooding. Win-win. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:00, July 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, Dolores has been bringing unusual July rain to my city, but by now, it's out of here. Glad it wasn't that impacting, but it did cause slight flash flooding! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:52, July 21, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF storm #4
ECMWF brings an Iselle-esque system near 140W in 10 days. 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:47, July 8, 2015 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
80/90. Could form in 12-18 hours, though the GFS and ECMWF both have it getting torn apart by the Great Hawaiian Shear in 4 days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:59, July 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * If anything, this invest should become "Enrique" and peak only as a tropical storm. A hurricane is being slightly optimistic at this point. The invest is now 90/90, and I would be shocked if it's not a depression by the afternoon (PDT time). --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:46, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
Upped. Looking good. Forecast peak is 50 knots, which may be too bullish, but a weak long-lied TS is possible since conditions look ok for 5 days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:00, July 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yep, Six-E really seems to be coming together in the southern quadrant. Winds are currently 30 knots (35 mph) with a pressure of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg) based on an ASCAT pass, but Dvorak estimates would prompt a tropical storm upgrade. With warm waters and low shear, I see no reason why that peak can't be reached, although dry air in the depression's proximity might inhibit even steady intensification. Motionwise, Six-E should continue pacing generally NW for the next several days, and there may be potential interaction with Dolores near the end of the NHC forecast period, as stated in their discussion. On a more trivial note, if Six-E can become a tropical storm before July 14 (if it is not actually one right now), it might be a record for the EPAC in general. Despite 1985's wildfire July, Storm #8, Hilda, did not arrive until July 19. Even 1992, which had two pre-April TCs, did not see its eighth storm, Frank, arrive until the date I stated above. It would be amazing if 2015 could seize another record. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:31, July 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah but 1985 got Ignacio and Jimena shortly after Hilda, and would also get Kevin and Linda before July was over. Still, it would be nice to see this season match or beat 1985's all-time July record. Ryan1000 00:55, July 13, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Enrique
And now it's named. Ryan1000 12:13, July 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * It seems Enrique has been forgotten here. Well, it was able to crack 45 knots (50 mph) despite the environment it was in, but is now moving over 25C SST's and is becoming disorganized. Winds have been lowered to 40 knots (45 mph) by the NHC based on Dvorak estimates, with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Enrique should begin a meandering motion as its STR influences weaken, and should degenerating within a couple of days based on its environment. Iglesias may have stolen Frank of his record I acknowledged above, but he is done bailando. ;) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:40, July 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * I saw what you did there... Anyways, Enrique Iglesias has now finally found unfavorable conditions in its path, giving him a heart attack. This storm may be a little bit of a dirty dancer but he surely isn't that much of a hero, unlike Dolores. Finally, Enrique is just meandering around the EPac as a weak TS because he likes it, and likes how it feels. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:42, July 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Enrique
...and its gone. the killer combo of shear+dry air stopped Enrique to start bailando. but maybe a drone dissipated it <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  04:05, July 17, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Enrique (2nd time)
...or is it? Enrique, somewhat like Douglas from last year, is maintaining some convection bursts in its northern quadrant. As a result, winds are at 35 knots (40 mph) again with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). However, Enrique may not last much longer, as it is already over 25C SST's, and the NHC forecasts degeneration within 24 hours. As the remains begin to execute a counterclockwise loop, it should be noted that some models keep Enrique alive for at least five more days. Maybe it will try to repeat 1991 (likely too extreme) ? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:07, July 17, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Enrique (2nd time)
My idea above was indeed too far-fetched. Enrique is basically devoid now of any deep convection, and is down to just some random shower bands. ASCAT data supports weakening to 30 knots (35 mph) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg) (NHC). As the depression continues erratically in a loop, it should become post-tropical within a day unless convection comes back, although some guidance suggests Enrique will last several more days from there. Whatever the case, impacts will effectively be zero from this storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:02, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Enrique
Now it died, even though remnants might still be lingering. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:16, July 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * It likely won't return. Ryan1000 23:02, July 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * Forgiveness is what you need to offer, Enrique. Forgiveness (El Perdon). Look what you did. rarity is best pony 22:07, July 24, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: South of Hawaii
East of ex-Iune, we have a rather disorganized surface low. Due to enviornmental conditions, significant intensification is quite unlikely from this AOI. However, the CPHC assesses its chances of formation to be 10% for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:45, July 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * This AOI basically looks like a string of pulled out clouds on the CPHC TWO. I highly doubt it will even come close to developing. Chances of formation are now (near) 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:56, July 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * And...the AOI has been dropped off the TWO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:28, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
0% for two days, but 40% for 5 as it moves northwest and it follows in the wake of Dolores. Felicia, anyone? Ryan1000 20:33, July 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/50. Could become a weak Cat 1 at most. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:50, July 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * This AOI has not been invested yet, but looking at the fairly warm SST's and diminishing shear in its projected NHC path, I would not rule out the possibility of another tropical storm (though I'm not sure how strong it will get). Also, chances of formation are now 60% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:54, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
20/80. Both the ECMWF and GFS show more deepening than they did yesterday, with the ECMWF showing a strong Cat 1 and the GFS has a Cat 2. The statical models have run on this now, and the LGEM has this as a major in 4 days while the SHIPS has a Cat 2. As for track, it will move slowly W to WNW over the next week or so. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * 30/80. I can see this possibly being a major hurricane "Felicia" in a few days from now. But, it will not surprise me if it doesn't even get to major status, because of the models you mentioned. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:19, July 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * 99E has gotten a little better organized. I personally predict a weak hurricane from the invest, but it is all dependent on the conditions ahead of it. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:06, July 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Little organization change happened overnight, but 99E is evidently better than it was a couple of days ago. Chances of formation in the next 48 hours have risen significantly to 70%, with a 90% chance in the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:29, July 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * 6z GFS now makes this a hurricane finally. 0z ECMWF brings this to 973 mbar (Cat 2-3). Liking it's chances at making a run at YET another major. Conditions look ok for 4 days, but great thereafter. It's got 6-7 days to intensify. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:16, July 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now that it's 70/90, it looks set to become "Felicia" soon. I think it'll peak as a Cat. 2 hurricane, maybe even a C3 or weak C4 like Dolores, but a high-end C4 seems to be pushing it. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:27, July 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * 90/90. Looks ready to graduate at around 15-21z. Has some nice spiral bands, and all in all, while does not have enough convection, it looks good structurally wise so far. Has 6-7 days oer warm waters and shear should decline in 2 days. Like it's chances at becoming a major. I doubt this will get stronger than around 120 knts though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:06, July 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Shear has increased quite a bit to near 30 knots. LGEM now only shows a mid TS, while SHIPS make this a high-end TS. 0z ECMWF barely develops this now. GFS, GFDL, and HWRF are now the aggressive ones, calling for a minimal hurricane. Strength will largely depend on if the storm can find an area of less than 7 knt of shear or so. It should have 2 (maybe longer) days over decent conditions, but I only expect it to be a weak tropical storm at that time. Cat 1 looks most likely right now, but a lot can change, and a Cat 3/4 is still possible. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:43, July 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * The NHC has noted those environmental conditions, but also state that a TD is still very likely, given that things are starting to improve. Chances of formation have nevertheless dropped to 80% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:07, July 21, 2015 (UTC)

It's now 80/90, and looking set to possibly be Felicia in the next day or so. Still hoping it gets as strong as a major 😃 --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:56, July 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * Unless the track shifts south, major status is unlikely. It might not even develop tbh. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:33, July 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * 70/70 now, unless I missed something earlier this could be the first 90% bust of the season. Time is running out... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:05, July 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, it would be. In fact, this might be one of the very few 90% busts I've ever seen at all. 12-E of 2011 almost became a 90% bust too, but it somehow developed just before it made landfall, but by then it was only at 20%, which was odd. Ryan1000 01:52, July 23, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven-E
Whoops, I guess we shouldn't count our busts before they hatch, it did make it to a depression. Although, it's not expected to become Felicia, and if it does, it'll be an epic fail. Ryan1000 11:40, July 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's probs a TS now if you ask me. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:24, July 23, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Felicia
Spoke too soon. It did become Felicia, but again, it won't get much stronger than this. Might make it to 45 or 50 before dying out in a few days. Ryan1000 15:38, July 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * 45 or 50 knots is too bullish if you ask me. Still so relieved this formed. Felicia is an ugly name that deserves to go to a weak tropical storm. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:58, July 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * I was referring to 45-50 mph in that context, sorry. But, Felicia is gonna be a fail either way. Ryan1000 20:05, July 23, 2015 (UTC)


 * failcia will be gone in a few days though. felicia is a 💩! all the hype for an hurricane and for an tiny weak storm!. lmao <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:47, July 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Lol only 3 advisories in and NHC is saying that Felicia is already losing organization. This has been such an all-or-nothing season so far, with an almost perfect balance of miserable failures and Category 4 hurricanes... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:30, July 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * The storm is a very borderline TS. I suppose though they may be stronger winds to the south of the LLC, which is now fully exposed. As for an all or nothing season, El Nino years are like that. They have their fair share of fails. 1997 had a bunch. 1982 had a lot of TD's that were in reality, likely low end TS's by modern day standards. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:06, July 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * I can't believe this weakling hijack the name Felicia. Imo she deserved a better storm. I am pretty angry. I would had hope if this was only a td. Last time she was a cat 4 and now to a barely ts is shameful.Allanjeffs 07:26, July 31, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Felicia
She's out-failing Ela. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:33, July 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * This to some extent was expected. And guys no need to complain about Felicia wasting a name. Don't you guys wanna go as far down the list as possible? And besides, Felicia is an ugly name anyway. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:02, July 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Congratulations Felicia, you fail so badly, you make all of us on this wiki want to do this. This song describes you with 100% accuracy, due to how much you just epically failed in front of the wiki audience. Felicia, I have reported you to the police for criminal actions such as thieving, hijacking, and stealing a good name off the EPac lists (JK). Shame on you, epic fail! o_o And I don't think Felicia is much of an ugly name, reserve that for names such as "Isis" instead :P --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 05:50, July 24, 2015 (UTC) Odile  of  2014
 * Idk what you guys expected with Felicia. To me, it didn't disappoint. I actually BTW think Isis is a good name, if it wasn't for the terrorist group. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  07:05, July 24, 2015 (UTC)

💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩 bye failicia! what a fun sad time you created! see ya in 2021! 💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩💩  •  •  17:27, July 24, 2015 (UTC)

"Bye Felicia" "I promise!" "BYE FELICIA!" Sums up this storm pretty well, huh?
 * FROM URBAN DICTIONARY: An expression used to dismiss someone. This person is usually irrelevant and annoying. This expression derived from the movie "Friday""Can I borrow a dollar, I promise I'll pay you back"
 * Bye Felicia!
 * rarity is best pony 22:03, July 24, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Felicia
What a failure of a storm. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:00, July 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * This picture describes Felicia perfectly, lol. BYE FAILICIA! :) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 05:35, July 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Sometimes I feel like you guys enjoy making fun of the fails more than tracking the intense hurricanes, lol. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:35, July 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ice-cube-as-craig-jones-in-friday-bye-felicia.pngly Steve.  rarity is best pony 20:27, August 2, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF storm #5
ECMWF agrees on another hurricane forming around day 6, and peaking around day 10. GFS has the same thing, but a later and slightly stronger peak. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/20. ECMWF has this being Iselle 2.0 pretty much. Then, develops the system below. GFS is less bullish though, showing a TD. If anyone cares, things are about to get very busy in the EPAC. Looking at the CMC, GFS, and CFS ensembles. the EPAC will likely be very busy the next month or so. The CFS has us to Rick by early September. The GFS has Guillermo by day 4, Hilda by day 6, and Ignacio by day 11. The CMC has a bunch of storms near the ITCZ. Looking at the operational runs, NASA has 3 storms in 10 days (2 EPAC, 1 CPAC). UKMET has 4 storms in 5 days. The FIM 8 and 9 both show a combined 1 storm (CPAC one in 12 days) after Felicia though, so let's not get too carried away. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:02, July 23, 2015 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Don't know why no one updated this until now, but this is now invested at 20/90. If it becomes named sometime before Friday, we'll have 7 storms in July, which would tie 1985 for the highest ever in one season. Ryan1000 12:25, July 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hwiki needs more users. Anyhow, 40/90. If we get lucky, this can become a minimal hurricane. It is located within the deep tropics and is in a low wind shear environment. ECMWF is bullish with this, and if it stays south, which the ECMWF and the statical guidance are torn over, the storm will be in a very favorable environment provided it remains apart from the ITCZ. If it goes north, this may be a TS at best though it remnants if it goes north may give rain to Hawaii. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:28, July 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * 12z ECMWF made this a long tracker monster like Genevieve. Even the GFS calls for a mid-grade TS now. Don't expect this trend to last. 12z HWRF was very bullish, but 18z HWRF backed off likely due to the center moving a bit to the N (according to SAB, may be near 14N). Given the center forming to the north, expect a major decline in intensity at 0z round of global models. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:23, July 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50/70. If anyone cares, convection has really increased after 12z. This might get classified somewhat soon, assuming there is a well-defined center. GFS hasn't initialized properly, but only calls for slight development. But if the convection falls apart, this won't. Models have backed off somewhat, with 0z ECMWF calling for a weak but long-lived TS (like Genevieve prior to the EI), HWRF calling for only a mid-grade TS after showing a MH 2 runs ago, and the GFDL no longer develops this really. Worth noting though that the TVCE consensus is quite far south, so once can assume the NOGAPS/UKMET keep this south still, which could allow for the storm to be over lower wind shear. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:17, July 27, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-E
Upgraded at 21z. It looked good then but since then, has become much less organized. Shear not as high long-term as I thought, so given it's expected duration (NHC keeps this a TC for 5 days), it'll likely become a TS at some point. If the storm lasts as long as the ECMWf, who knows, maybe it'll blossom. In a few days, this will have a CCKW going for it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:58, July 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * NHC expects another fail...current peak is only expected to be 40 mph. But either way, assuming this becomes Guillermo sometime before Saturday, we'll have a record-tying 7 named storms in July with 1985. 3 of them formed in the CPac, also a record. Ryan1000 11:27, July 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * NHC no longer predicts this to become Guillermo. Looks like the record might have to wait :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:54, July 28, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it might not happen at all...gah, we were close to matching '85. (Unless 91E becomes named sometime within the next two days). Ryan1000 18:12, July 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * For the record, this depression has now lived longer than Felicia did, without ever becoming a named storm. Pretty warped if you ask me. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:13, July 29, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E
dead. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:28, July 30, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS WPAC CCKW storm #1
Major CCKW forming east of the dateline and likely to re-light up the E/CPAC. This is the first one. Currently at 10%. May not form until the WPAC, but there's a decent chance it does. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:19, July 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Has entered the WPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:38, July 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * ...which it later became Soudelor in the WPac. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:05, July 31, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:UKMET CPAC storm
UKMET has a CPAC storm forming near 160W in 5 days. It's not clear from what area, but the ECMWF also hints at it. NASA shows it I think as well, and there's some ensemble support. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:19, July 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Was a near 0% briefly but gone now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:58, July 28, 2015 (UTC)