Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/Jasmine

95P.INVEST
TCFA...and it's heading toward SPAC. --Cy10-- 21:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

Finally...maybe a storm there! 173.169.56.34 02:40, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Well - Nadi actually say that when it enters the SPAC, it will be a strong depression or a cyclone. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 12:29, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

We also have newly form Tropical Disturbance 10 .Allanjeffs 12:48, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 10P
Expected to get to 65 kts in the SPAC. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 09:18, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Straight in there with 50 mph. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 13:30, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah!!! its strengthening rapidly maybe a peak f cat 2 or 3 after it enter the high shear of the south pacific basin.Allanjeffs 14:32, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

I thought this one would develop, but the South Pacific still hasn't had any storms form there yet, and if Jasmine becomes a strong major cyclone (which currently seems unlikely), it could be a problem for the folks in the Solomon Islands or New Caledonia in the next few days. It's also expected to head due east or slightly east-northeast, which is rare for a storm in this area. Ryan1000 17:37, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Now a C2.--Cy10-- 03:50, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

and strengthening could peak at 3 or 4 before it start weakening. Allanjeffs 15:01, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

I'd like to see Jasmine become a severe tropical cyclone. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 22:31, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * So you want to see devastation across some SPAC islands? —12R.KIEWII 22:40, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * No. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 23:21, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

VMS now showing it going to the south of the islands with 70 kt wind. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 01:32, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Yep, Nadi has it making landfall on New Caledonia as a Cat 3. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 08:40, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Hope she not make landfall at that strength.Allanjeffs 12:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Now in the SPAC (FYI, for simplicity, don't move it into the SPAC bit of the forum). The official track map from Nadi shows it passing between Vanuatu and New Caledonia as a Cat 3. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 15:34, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Just as Jasmine is about to make landfall, she appears to be entering an RI phase... [Link] 65kts as of the latest JTWC update, but not for long. Yqt1001 22:02, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
And its here. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 02:00, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Jasmine looks pretty impressive. It looks like it's going to pass between New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands, so damage should hopefully be minimized, even if it does become a category 3 or 4 storm. Ryan1000 02:07, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Officially the strongest of the season.Allanjeffs 04:21, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

And we now have a Category 4 cyclone! —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 12:30, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

This thing looks impressive! And Kiewii, do you mean Category 4 on the AUS scale or the SSHS? Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 22:46, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Well to find out, check the latest Nadi advisory and the latest JTWC advisory. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 23:19, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Jasmine's small, but she's pretty agressive-looking. Fortunately, she's small enough to miss the Solomon Islands and it missed New Caledonia as well, so damage, if any, will be minimal. But this was impressive. After 4 months of being in a coma, the SPac has finally woke up. Ryan1000 23:46, February 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well Jasmine didn't go anywhere near the Solomon Islands. —12R.KIEWII 23:56, February 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Bombing out. 942 mb pressure. Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 12:51, February 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now a C4 on AUS and SSHS scales.--Cy10-- 13:13, February 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Technically Ryan the SPac didn`t produce Jasmine so the SPac woke up when Cyril form and now that is out we are again coming into a coma its true that Jasmine is in there for now but when she dies there is not going to be anything more.Allanjeffs 20:39, February 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * There's a good chance this year could tie or break the record set by last year's SWIO season as the least active SHem season ever, but yeah, other than Jasmine, which was really a crossover (like Yasi last year), the rest of the SHem is dead. Ryan1000 03:49, February 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now Jasmine is inside TCWC Wellington AoR.--Cy10-- 02:57, February 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (2nd time)
Weakening now. Just to point out, the VMS had this peaking at 931 mb. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 19:37, February 10, 2012 (UTC)

It's starting to fall apart, but she's not out yet. She's expected to continue weakening though, and I'd place her death date from tomorrow to Sunday. I think Giovanna's going to be the big story over the next few days. Ryan1000 20:59, February 10, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (2nd time)
Nothing can stop her! (well for at least a few more days) - Will move back into Nadi's responsibility tomorrow afternoon. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 09:22, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

Really, Jasmine? You have to turn back northeast and go on? Ah well. She's postponing her fate, but she won't survive past this Wendsday or Thursday. Still a C2, it's not out yet. Ryan1000 16:34, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

She really wants attention because we were looking at Giovanna yesterday she didn`t want to be left out so she pulls this surprise to us but Ithink it will not be for long.Allanjeffs 18:17, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (3rd time)
Moving faster than expected, now back in Nadi AoR. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 18:43, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

This thing is going on a intensity roller coaster! Andrew444TalkBlogContributions 13:36, February 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not really. Nadi said it was a Severe Tropical Cyclone again by mistake. —12R.KIEWII 14:39, February 12, 2012 (UTC)

Well NIWA says that Jasmine reached C5 status on the Aussie scale. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 01:59, February 13, 2012 (UTC)

Really that is unexpect it by my part.Allanjeffs 02:34, February 13, 2012 (UTC)

Nothing can stop her! Jasmine is strengthening again... down from 990 mb to 987 mb and from 40 kts to 45 kts 10-min. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 12:33, February 14, 2012 (UTC)

Jasmine has a long way to go to catch up to Rewa's record of 28 days from the 1993-1994 season, but still, I never expected it to go on for this long. Two weeks is still impressive, and it could go on for even longer than that. Ryan1000 11:49, February 15, 2012 (UTC)

Big fail in forecasting there, Advisory 24 had it becoming a C2 again, however, the latest advisory has it becoming a TD within 24 hours. Just to note that 85 tropical cyclone warnings have been issued on Jasmine! —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 12:13, February 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Last advisory by JTWC... :| .--Cy10-- 21:05, February 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yup. I wonder when Nadi will stop issuing advisories as well? 173.169.56.34 22:52, February 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * When it moves south of 25°S. —12R.KIEWII 23:00, February 15, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Jasmine
Now down to a TD, and expected to be an EC by tonight. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 16:37, February 16, 2012 (UTC)

Former Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Now extratropical. Do not change the title since 'Former TC Jasmine' is the official name now. —'12R[http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/User_talk:Kierant676. ]KIEWII' 19:29, February 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gone.--Cy10-- 16:47, February 17, 2012 (UTC)