Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

Non-tropical low
31.6N 73.9W, off the Carolina coast. This hasn't been designated by NRL, but it appears to be transitioning to warm core according to the cyclone phase diagrams. SAB has issued Herbert-Poteat numbers of ST2.5/2.5 for the system. --Coredesat 18:50, 7 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I've been watching this storm develop for a while. It's a little lacking right now. All it needs in convection. Then, maybe this will be our next Ana. Cyclone1 (20:54 UTC -7/05/2007)

(moved from Talk:Main Page) Who knew I'd be the first one to post. On Friday, the model guidance was indicating an occluded cyclone would form in the subtropical Atlantic east of the Bahamas a bit too far from the Gulf Stream for subtropical cyclogenesis near the 72nd meridian (500 hPa-surface temp differences of only 34C, which is neutral moist on a sounding). However, the models changed their track to one parallel and closer to the Gulf Stream, which significantly increases the chance of ST genesis. Temperature differences between the 500 hPa level (20000 feet) and the sea surface temps in the Gulf Stream exceed 40C (unstable moist), which is enough to induce thunderstorms. Sure enough, look what's happenning this afternoon northeast of Florida, with shallow to moderate convection filling the vicinity of the low. Able of 1951 formed in a similar manner, and it became a category 3 hurricane. The track of this cyclone has a chance to be similar, and if it can become a subtropical/tropical storm, it may not shear as badly as the current guidance is suggesting. One of the satellite centers, as of 18z, is already classifying it as an ST2.5 (subtropical storm), and ship reports indicated 45 knot winds around its circulation today. It's been a while since we had a May subtropical storm...since the mid-1970s if I remember correctly. Thegreatdr 22:15, 7 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Really? I read the tropical discussion and it said the storm was going to start to weaken soon, but the NCEP model tells a different story. I'm not giving up on this storm. Whether it forms or not, it's gonna have the same effect on land. Alpha in 1972 is what you were thinking of. Cyclone1 (01:03 UTC -8/05/2007)


 * FYI, SSD (Satellite Services Division) already has 90L as a subtropical storm, so unless NHC NOAA is going conservative, I'm assuming that this storm is indeed Andrea. -- This unsigned comment was added by 71.7.209.115 22:38, 7 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Interesting. --Ajm81 23:21, 7 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Okay what the frick? It would be May 8 if I'm not mistaken. The season doesn't start for another three weeks, surely we don't have something forming now. -- Hurricane Eric 21:13, 8 May 2007 (UTC)

Latest TWD forecasts weakening as it moves toward the Georgia-Florida border. --Coredesat 08:32, 8 May 2007 (UTC)


 * New convection is developing very near its center. looks really impressive now! -- WmE 12:14, 8 May 2007 (UTC)

WONT41 KNHC 081346 DSAAT SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ FORECASTER KNABB 

– NSLE 13:53, 8 May 2007 (UTC)

90L.INVEST

 * Officially 90L. – NSLE 14:19, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * NRL saying 50kts. Furthermore recon scheduled for tomorrow. -- WmE 14:23, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * The only thing keeping this from being Andrea at this point I think (if it matters) is the lack of solid convective bands. It has definitely taken the shape of a subtropical or tropical storm. However, it seems to be a fair ways away from taking on the bands. I give it a 30% chance of becoming Andrea right now. CrazyC83 15:03, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * All it really needs is a decent blow up of convection (which is likely, considering the fact that its moving slowly over the Gulf stream). If that were to happen, I think we'd have ourselves an Andrea. Cyclone1 (18:55 UTC -8/05/2007)

Starting to look better. Cyclone1 (20:10 UTC -8/05/2007)
 * Still quite exposed in the center of the storm though. CrazyC83 21:06, 8 May 2007 (UTC)
 * But, it's getting its act together. The Weather Channel insists on calling it a subtropical storm, when it clearly is not official. Maybe one day the NHC will just go ahead and call it Andrea. Or will this be the third year in a row with a post analisys storm? (Analysis? Analaz... I can't spell.) Cyclone1 (22:06 UTC -8/05/2007)


 * I'm actually going to be really disappointed when this thing doesn't develop. We all love rare things. Offseason storms are a good example. 2003's Ana seems like a long time ago and I feel that itching desire for a preseason storm. Deep down, I know it's not going to happen, but to get this close...it's almost painful you know. I'm not counting the storm out yet, but NHC seems pretty convinced of this thing not making much noise and I'm starting to lose conviction. The satellite images aren't very compelling and when the NHC says "significant development not expected" that usually means it's not going to happen. I hate to be the party crasher, but don't get you hopes up. I personally think it's cool that we're even talking about an Invest on May 8! -- SkyFury 23:17, 8 May 2007 (UTC) (People on regular Wikipedia know me better as HurricaneEric)
 * Oh, hey Eric. Like the new name. But anyway, I feel exactly the same way. I was crossing my fingers and hoping and praying that this would form, just for the sake of it being a pre-season storm. But, I've had fun talking about something this early. I missed the S. Atl INVEST last February and I missed the April mini-noreaster/INVEST weirdo storm no-one could really find. So, this is the earliest in a season I've ever talked about an INVEST, so... it was something to do. However, just so I don't become depressed, I'm going to remain in denial. It'll form, guys! It'll become Hurricane Andrea! Yeah! Cyclone1 (00:09 UTC -9/05/2007)
 * But, RECON is still flying out tomorrow, so... not all hope is lost. Cyclone1 (00:10 UTC -9/05/2007)
 * First RECON flight on May 9. Not bad, I'd say. Bob rulz 05:58, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

SAB Hebert-Poteat numbers up to ST3.0. --Coredesat 09:09, 9 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Recon has just taken off. The plane will reach the storm in about 2 hours. The convection got cooler during the last hours and the center has moved under some deeper convection. Maybe it will be enough to warm the center a little bit. -- WmE 09:59, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB -- WmE 13:07, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Welcome to the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, three weeks early! (That assumes they follow through with current trends) I guess Andrea was so anxious she couldn't wait for June 1st! She is in a different spot than her predecessors though... CrazyC83 13:17, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Well that was unexpected. We may have something here. This is crazy. Hurricane season is still three weeks away. -- SkyFury 13:24, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

01L.ANDREA
Now listed as 01L.Andrea on NRL. CrazyC83 13:43, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * There are still no warnings out yet though. -- SkyFury 14:00, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Andrea
Whoa, hello! Not anymore! We have Andrea: 000 WTNT31 KNHC 091443 TCPAT1 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER  1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL012007 1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. -- SkyFury 15:10, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Yay, the season has begun! RaNdOm26 14:53, 9 May 2007 (UTC)
 * It's a subtropical storm, so I changed the header accordingly. --Coredesat 14:54, 9 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Hmm, well it's already posing a threat to the USA, it's moving west. RaNdOm26 15:15, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks pretty good right now, I doubt it'll get any stronger though. But that's good, since it's heading towards land. Maybe it'll put some of the fires down here. We need rain! Cyclone1 (19:20 UTC -9/05/2007)


 * From what I've heard, significant rain is not expected to move inland. However, if it becomes more organized, things could still change. This storm could end up being beneficial, to help ease the drought in that area. Bob rulz 19:33, 9 May 2007 (UTC)

Meh, I think I'm too far south to get any rain from it anyway. Cyclone1 (20:03 UTC -9/05/2007)

Feels like summer, doesn't it? The trough that spawned Andrea (now to her east) was extremely vigorous for this time of year. The wind shear in the Caribbean is stiff, but all along the east coast, it's relatively mild. That trough really weakened the shear and left us little Andrea. Three weeks early. I keep looking at the date on my watch. Am I the only one struck by the fact that this is just the sixth time in the past 30 years that this has happened. That's an average of twice a decade. Ah the wonders of the Atlantic. -- SkyFury 22:08, 9 May 2007 (UTC)


 * You know, Andrea is the second storm this decade to form before June, so your statistics are dead on. However, I still hit the roof when it was named. I had actually counted this storm out this morning. I hate that, as soon as I count a storm out, it forms, but if I swear it'll form, it dissipates. Example of the latter: Last year an August INVEST that I actually predicted to reach Emily-like proportions dissipated. I still feel kinda dumb for that... but now I'm rambling. Cyclone1 (23:29 UTC -9/05/2007)

Looks like it'll just be a statistic, since it currently looks like crap. The dry air is wreaking havoc on the convection, and convection is limited to the southeastern quadrant. Pressure up to 1004 hPa at 2 AM. --Coredesat 06:01, 10 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Poor Andrea. The storm has a very etherial look to it. I've seen tropical storms that looked worse but were still tropical storms for a couple of days. (Lorenzo, 2001, is a good example). We were hoping Andrea could help put out some of the fires in the southeast, but it looks like that's not going to happen. NHC makes mention in their last discussion of an upper level low that could be a wild card in the intensity forecast. Not sure what that's about. -- SkyFury 13:34, 10 May 2007 (UTC)
 * My best guess is that the ULL is what's causing the shear over Andrea. --Coredesat 16:11, 10 May 2007 (UTC)

Subtropical depression at 11 AM, remnant low forecast in 36 hours, though it might as well be one now given that the entire circulation is choked with dry air, except for a few patches of convection far to the northeast of the center. --Coredesat 16:11, 10 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Just as an interesting note, check this out. It says that 12 hours out, it's 5% more likely to be a tropical storm than a tropical depression. What's up with that? Cyclone1 (20:10 UTC -10/05/2007)
 * Last advisory. --Coredesat 02:50, 11 May 2007 (UTC)


 * Does anyone see any chance of reorganazation? It doesn't look like it to me.  --Galaxy001talk 04:07, 11 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Don't write her off. Convection increased over the last hours, maily due to reduced shear. Nice banding started also. Looks like a REAL tropical storm. She may make an comeback. -- WmE 15:10, 11 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Sorry guys, Andrea's done. May isn't usually a very hospitable month to storms. Wait three weeks. -- SkyFury 16:43, 11 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Actually, the TWD mentions that it appears to be trying to gain tropical characteristics. SAB is now issuing Dvorak fixes on it (not Hebert-Poteat), and gave it T1.0. However, there is a cold front that should bring short order to it in a little while. --Coredesat 18:53, 11 May 2007 (UTC)

It actually looks better now than it ever has. Cyclone1 (18:57 UTC -11/05/2007)

Remnant low
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement says no intensification is expected, but they're sending a plane tomorrow if needed to the remnent. Could it live that long? Jake52 My talk 21:26, 11 May 2007 (UTC)


 * God bless her, she's tryin' ;) -- SkyFury 21:45, 11 May 2007 (UTC)

She's trying to plan a comeback tour. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 22:21, 11 May 2007 (UTC)


 * It says no further intensification is expected, but tropical development is still very possible. I don't think anyone ever foresaw Andrea re-organizing like this. Cyclone1 (00:33 UTC -12/05/2007)


 * Tropical cyclones are fickle creatures. They can certainly pull things out of their own bag of tricks, even when we set them off as dead... CrazyC83 00:53, 12 May 2007 (UTC)


 * The pressure is falling. 1004mbar. Cyclone1 (12:54 UTC -12/05/2007)

Wow! Look at her! ! She's looking more and more tropical. However, the most shocking part of this picture is the insane amount of smoke! *cough hack* I think I'm catching lung cancer down here. Cyclone1 (13:02 UTC -12/05/2007)


 * Here is the same image for those who may be reading this later. Cyclone1 (13:11 UTC -12/05/2007)
 * Newest Dvorak fixes are T1.5. She's approaching tropical depression strength. -- WmE 16:49, 12 May 2007 (UTC)


 * New STDS issued, saying it could be a TD at any time but the Recon flight was canceled due to resource issues (understandable as it is not hurricane season). CrazyC83 17:20, 12 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Question: If it peaks as a subtropical storm, but reaches tropical depression status, is it Tropical Storm Andrea or Subtropical Storm Andrea. It was never a tropical storm, but was technically still tropical. Just wondering. Cyclone1 (02:06 UTC -13/05/2007)
 * It won't be a tropical anything now. Off of NRL and of NHC. Jake52 My talk 19:10, 14 May 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, now we await Barry's arrival. Will he be pre-season? If so, we're in for quite a season. Cyclone1 (20:04 UTC -14/05/2007)

ACE calculations
Should they be done here or at Wikipedia itself? I know that Andrea's ACE was 0.00 (unless it regenerates as fully tropical), but for future reference or if Andrea becomes an actual TS, where should it be? CrazyC83 00:55, 12 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I don't see why not. We could give updates here on how the ACE changes over time as the storm progresses, whereas Wikipedia probably would just give the final "high" ACE value.  Galaxy001talk 05:31, 12 May 2007 (UTC)

I have created the ACE calculations at Forum:2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season/ACE. CrazyC83 20:49, 12 May 2007 (UTC)

Andrea a kickstarter
After a month-long, worldwide storm drought, Andrea appears to have kickstarted the tropics. There's a storm in the Bay of Bengal and a TSFA in the West Pacific. -- SkyFury 14:58, 15 May 2007 (UTC)

- Whoa, really? I haven't been able to keep up with the other seasons aside from the Atlantic. Lilac DownDeep 19:08, 15 May 2007 (UTC)