User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center/West Pacific/Ma-on/3

BULLETIN TYPHOON MA-ON ADVISORY NUMBER 3 CYCLONE WARNING CENTER WP062011 600 AM JST FRI JUL 15 2011 ...MA-ON INTENSIFIES...

SUMMARY OF 600 AM JST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION -- LOCATION...20.4N 143.4E ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM NNW OF SAIPAN NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM SSE OF TOKYO JAPAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H GUSTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 HPA...27.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF JAPANJAPAN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS FROM PARALON DE PAJAROS TO ASUNCION
 * THE JAPANESE VOLCANO ISLANDS FROM IWO TO TO MINAMI IWO JIMA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

A MAJOR TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * KYUSHU ISLAND FROM SASEBO NAGASAKI PREFECTURE SOUTHWARDS AND EASTWARDS TO OITA OITA PREFECTURE.
 * SHIKOKU ISLAND FROM IYO EHIME PREFECTURE SOUTHWARDS AND EASTWARDS TO TOKOSHIMA TOKOSHIMA PREFECTURE.
 * THE OSUMI ISLANDS

A MAJOR TYPHOON WATCH MEANS MAJOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS... AT OR ABOVE CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY... MIGHT OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN FIVE DAYS.

A TYPHOON WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * HONSHU ISLAND FROM KUSHIMOTO WAKAYAMA PREFECTURE WESTWARDS TO INE KYOTO PREFECTURE.
 * KYUSHU ISLAND FROM SASEBO NAGASAKI PREFECTURE NORTHWARDS AND EASTWARDS TO OITA OITA PREFECTURE.
 * SHIKOKU ISLAND FROM IYO EHIME NORTHWARDS AND EASTWARDS TO TOKOSHIMA TOKOSHIMA PREFECTURE.
 * TOKARA ISLANDS

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS TYPHOON CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN FIVE DAYS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * THE NORTHERN AMAMI ISLANDS... THE ISLANDS OF TOKUNOSHIMA, KAKEROMAJIMA AND KIKAISHIMA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MIGHT OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN FIVE DAYS.

WATCHES FOR JAPAN MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS MAY BE CANCELLED LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW.

PROGNOSIS
EARLIER TODAY THE APPEARANCE OF MA-ON SEEMED THAT IT WAS ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LARGE RIDGE NORTH OF IT, WHICH WAS RESTRICTING ITS ABILITY TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. HOWEVER... A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT THE EYE OF MA-ON SEEMS TO BE OPEN IN THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE AREA OF DEEPEST CONVECTION IS STILL IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT ADT NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS GENEROUSLY HELD AT 110KT, WELL ABOVE THE JTWC ANALYSIS BUT IN LINE WITH THE RECENT ADT NUMBERS.

BECAUSE OF THE RECENT MICROWAVE PASS... MA-ON IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS FAST AS THE FORECAST FOR THE LAST ADVISORY. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED DOWNWARDS, AND MA-ON IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO ATTAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS. HOWEVER, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS NOT UNEXPECTED AND MUST BE WATCHED OUT FOR AS IT WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY TWO DAYS TIME. AFTER THAT... STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG ITS ROUTE. BY DAY FIVE... MA-ON SHOULD BE NEAR OR MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THIS WILL HAPPEN IS UNKNOWN... BUT MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR DAYS THAT IT WILL EITHER MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ISLAND FOR KYUSHU OR SHIKOKU. THE FORECAST MAKES IT MAKE LANDFALL RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE TWO ISLANDS AS A WEAKENING MAJOR TYPHOON, BUT IF MA-ON JOGS SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED... MA-ON COULD REMAIN STRONGER MAJOR TYPHOON AT LANDFALL DUE TO THE FACT THAT IT WONT WEAKEN MORE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. INTERESTS IN JAPAN MUST WATCH CAREFULLY FOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER CENTER FOR ADVICE ON DEALING WITH THIS STORM. IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE... IT WOULD BE ONE OF THE STRONGEST TO HIT JAPAN IN RECENT MEMORY.

INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL 110 KT 12H 115 KT 24H 125 KT 36H 130 KT 48H 135 KT 72H 130 KT 96H 120 KT 120H 110 KT NEARING LANDFALL

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IN 3 HOURS.  FULL ADVISORY IN 6 HOURS. 

FORECASTER Darren 23 Edits 21:20, July 14, 2011 (UTC)