Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why? rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)

IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Isis retired
Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.)  rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. Ryan1000 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001  leeboy100 My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
Behind 14-E, this one is at 20% for 5 days. More likely to become named than 14-E is, but it won't become strong if it does. Ryan1000 01:37, September 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I really do hope "Kevin" is saved for this AOI and doesn't go to 14-E. We don't need an epic fail name-waster. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 01:59, September 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Why are we concluding that the system won't become strong already? YE Pacific Hurricane  04:37, September 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * The models don't really do much with this as it heads out to sea behind 14-E, or they haven't caught onto it yet. Although, I definitely have personal hopes this does become a strong storm, if the EPac gets just one more cat 4 this year, we'll beat 1992 for the most C4's ever in one season. Ryan1000 05:11, September 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Last three ECMWF runs have brought this to 983, 997, and 999 mbar. Probs a weak but large TS here, but too soon to say for sure. YE Pacific Hurricane  13:07, September 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * YE, I meant at that time for the name "Kevin" to go to this system, rather than the other one, because at that time, 14-E would have been the epic fail name-waster I was talking about, not this system. Anyway, I'm hoping for "Linda" out of this AOI! The EPac and CPac are really on a roll, as there are still 3 storms (Ignacio, Jimena, and Kevin) that are active, and plus this one. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 01:06, September 4, 2015 (UTC)

Okay... it's up to 60/80. The satellite presentation is looking fine, currently. Linda is almost guaranteed out of the invest. -- Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:17, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
Invest'd. As for the peak strength of this system, it will likely depend on how fast this gets going. If this gets going sooner than I think it will, Cat 3 or 4 is possible. YE Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:52, September 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Near 100%? Really NHC? This is a TD and you know it, just upgrade the damn thing already. And since it's only moving northwest at 5 to 10 mph, it might have enough time to intensify into a strong storm while remaining at sea. Ryan1000 01:16, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E
Now numbered, forecast to move northwest and become at least a category 1 Hurricane (Linda). Ryan1000 02:36, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Linda
Now named, forecast to become a hurricane a little longer than previously expected. Ryan1000 16:21, September 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * It looks much better now than it did last night. May be nearing 45 knots now. Let's see if this can build an inner core in the near term. If it can, this will have a good chance at becoming a Category 4. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:39, September 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Linda is now at 60 mph! It should continue to strengthen, to eventually reach at least Category 2 status. In fact, I might say that she might have a shot at being a major sometime in her lifetime. But, a Category 4 could be hard for her to reach, and I'm a bit skeptical if she'll even get up to there. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:15, September 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Linda is pretty well-organized, and she's only moving northwest at 10 mph. Linda has at least 2, maybe 3 days to strengthen before conditions become unfavorable. I'd actually be surprised if Linda doesn't try to make a run at major hurricane status, but unless a miracle happens, she won't be repeating her all-time record 1997 incarnation. Ryan1000 01:22, September 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Cat 4's isn't anything hard to reach, especially with a thick CDO. This storms has 36-48 hours left, and is doing an okay job of building an inner core. NHC has this up to 60 in the ATCF which is a great estimate, maybe a little too high. This thing needs to finish it's inner core, close off an eye, and this should be ready to take off. One thing this does not hae on its side is time. This moved over the EPAC SST gradient by late Tuesday, and most models peak this sometime Tuesday afternoon. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, September 7, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Linda
Linda's making a rapid run for it in intensity. Official forecast brings this just short of Cat. 3, but I have a hard time seeing this not make major right now. Jake52 (talk) 05:08, September 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now it's forecast to make at least cat 3, though it could have a shot at cat 4. Ryan1000 11:54, September 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Category 2 now, 85 kts/973 mbar. Come on, Linda, become the record-breaking 8th Category 4 of the season! You can do it! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:29, September 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Scratch that, at this point I don't think we're even going to get a Category 3 out of Linda. :/ Was at 90 kts/969 mbar earlier, but is back down to 85 kts/973 mbar per ATCF. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:59, September 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, there's still a chance it could become a major later today (by UTC), but it needs to get it going the latest sattelite pics show the southwest quadrant being eroded somewhat. Ryan1000 02:06, September 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Up to 100 knts in ATCF after going down to 80 knts. Now Linda is actually clearing out an eye lol. If it can maintain itself, Cat 4 is possible again, but I doubt it will. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane

Major Hurricane Linda
Not bad, Linda, not bad! A last-minute stint of RI has brought it to 105 kts/956 mbar (which Forecaster Brennan notes could be conservative) per the latest advisory. Fingers crossed Linda breaks a record by reaching Category 4 status, but if not, this season still has over two months left. (BTW, the above unsigned comment was left by YE.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:57, September 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Dylan, 8 major hurricanes at this time of year period is a pretty damn impressive feat as it stands. Even if Linda doesn't become a cat 4, we're already nearly 3 weeks ahead of 1992's record MH pace. That season didn't get it's 8th major hurricane (Tina) until September 28th. If the AOI behind Linda (which is now at 40% for 5 days) becomes a major hurricane in the long run, we'll be just one major hurricane short of tying 1992 for the most majors ever in one season. We're already one cat 4 short of breaking a 3-way tie at 7, but having over 10 majors in this season would bring this year's ACE within the top 5 highest ever (though it'd be tough for this year to beat 1990 and 1992's ACE totals). Ryan1000 20:22, September 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well, played, Linda, well, played. Also, I noticed something. Even though, there is a chance that 1992's record for storms could fall this year, we might not make it to the Greeks, because of the record activity in the CPac. I mean, at this point in 1992 in the EPAC we were on the 'O' name Orlene, we are currently on the 'L' name. Although around the same time in 1992, a depression was wandering around in the Cpac for a few days and on September 8 (today) that storm would eventually become Iniki and we all know what he did. Anyways, getting back on topic, I'm actually surprised Linda did this. I didn't expect it, but good job! Also, I just found out something else, 2 of the most intense Pacific storms were on this very name list. Linda's other incarnation in 1997 and Rick of 2009, creepy. (Sorry for writing so much in this post, I've been more chatty than usual today. :P )   leeboy100 My Talk! 23:22, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Linda (2nd time)
That's a good point Ryan, I forgot to consider that because I was so caught up in the cavalcade of Cat 4s :P Anyway, Linda is falling rapidly at this point. The 9z advisory brought it down to 85 kts/969 mbar, and the 12z ATCF update down further to 75 kts/976 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:28, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Linda's falling apart now, and unfortunately it's remnants are drifting northeast into Baja and Arizona instead of north into California. But it was good while it lasted, and Marty-to be could be following right behind it. Ryan1000 19:04, September 9, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Linda (2nd time)
downgraded to TS. looks a lot post-tropical though. (the only wiki editor inside of Linda!) -<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:16, September 10, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Linda
Hats off. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:37, September 10, 2015 (UTC)

Goodbye Linda, nice knowing you ( by the way: I changed the color of my signature in remembrance of those who died on 9/11, I'll change it back soon)  leeboy100 9/11 never forget 22:04, September 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I missed it being a major due to school and stuff, but bye Linda! Its remains are actually flowing here into SoCal, and in fact, we got some rain yesterday afternoon possibly associated with the remnants. And Leeboy, yeah, we're never going to forget that tragic day. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:06, September 10, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF system #2
ECMWF develops a system around 8-10 days behind the above system. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  13:07, September 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * 40% for 5 days. Here comes Marty...Ryan1000 20:25, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Invest'd. Was upped to a 50% chance of developing for 5 days earlier, but was knocked back down to 40% with the latest update. Ryan1000 20:01, September 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Marty should come out of this invest by...about the weekend or so. And it seems to be another system with hurricane potential, even though the TWO says that environmental conditions are only expected to be somewhat favorable for developing. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:09, September 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/30. Most global models don't do much with this system as this is a very complex setup (sparked by ex-Linda's outflow) with a possible GOM system thrown into the mix which could shear it as well as a system to its left and an ex-cold front into the GOC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:02, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Gone from the TWO. I guess this one was too hyped...but since this year is still on one of the, if not the, strongest El Nino event(s) on record, we still have quite some time to beat or match 1992's major hurricane records. Ryan1000 19:05, September 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * This invest appears to be associated with a tropical wave, and I think it might still actually have a slight shot over the long run. Wouldn't be surprised if it sometime pops back on the TWO. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:11, September 12, 2015 (UTC)

I see a new AOI in the EPac, could it be this one? It's 10/20 and could be Marty in the long run. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:27, September 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Up to 10/30. Marty anyone? <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 03:29, September 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * :: It's still hanging around in the same percentages, and is being slow to develop into something. I still think it has a hint of potential though. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:51, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * If this is the same thing that 99E was, then it really doesn't seem to want to develop... I hope it finally quits this not forming act and becomes Marty, so we can keep breaking records this year in the Pacific! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:22, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I hope it gets its act together soon. We really want to see Marty from the invest! 20/30 BTW. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:05, September 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * At least it has more clouds on satellite then it did a couple days ago. It actually looks like it could become something eventually now, but it looked like that when it was 50% and ended up dropping off the TWO for a while. Please form, Marty! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:43, September 18, 2015 (UTC)



91E. INVEST
Invest'ed. It's the same system as above, but it's been invested with a new number. 30/30, and it only has a couple days before it enters unfavorable conditions. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:31, September 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * 40/40. Regardless on whether this develops, very heavy rain is likely over the SW US. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:02, September 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 50/50 now, but even if it develops, it'll probably be weak, maybe as strong as Kevin at best. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:03, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * YE, that means more drought-relief! This could be Marty but only be a TS. I doubt a hurricane. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 17:00, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * 70/70 now, looks like this will become a tropical system soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:17, September 19, 2015 (UTC)

[http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2015091912/hwrf_mslp_uv850_91E_20.png so. shots fired.] (not kidding) <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  20:16, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * My personal predictions call for Marty to form out of this system by approximately tonight. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 21:09, September 19, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E
Well, it became a tropical depression. Not forecast to become named, but I hope it becomes a weak TS instead of an unnamed TD. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:48, September 21, 2015 (UTC)

I really doubt this is going to be named and I am almost sure its not going as there are no ts warnings and its about to make landfall as I write. I am quite surprise that the Epac has just produce one name storm in September  (Linda) I am quite sure a disturbance might develop into Marty in the remaining 10 days of September but still this is a Strong and powerful El Niño. Even though the peak of the East Pacific is in August but a secondary peak in Oct if I am correct.Allanjeffs 01:58, September 21, 2015 (UTC)

theres a small chance of getting Marty on the Gulf of California. (like the Bay of Campeche, it's very circular) and note theres a lot of hot waters in the Gulf. so a RI is possible. --<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  04:00, September 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah Allan there's a secondary peak for the EPac in early to mid October, around the time when the strongest October hurricane ever in the East Pacific (Rick) formed the last time this list was used. That year had it's fair share of epic fails before Rick though, and the CPac seems to be taking a lot of glory this year. We already set a record 5 storms with Loke, but now we have Malia and if 96C becomes Niala the CPac will have more than half the named storms that the EPac has thus far. Ryan1000 18:56, September 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * This depression has now well inland, and it wasn't named. So no name-wasting here.  leeboy100 Rita 2005-2015 22:15, September 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dang it, missed this TD entirely! Well, luckily it didn't waste a name. But I also busted a personal forecast above! I thought it would have been Marty by that night, but it didn't develop until a day later and never became named. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:00, September 23, 2015 (UTC)

95C.INVEST
as everybody likes to left this wiki intentionally inactive... 30% and here it comes Malia... <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:38, September 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I wish this wiki had more users. And the CPac is already record active, are we really going to get 6 storms in the CPac this year, assuming this becomes something? O.O <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:55, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50% currently, but it doesn't have much time, as it is expected to become post-tropical on Friday night. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 23:06, September 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Down to 30%, but the CPHC has no idea what they're doing. This system has become a tropical cyclone, whether the CPHC wants to upgrade it to such is irrelevant. And idk why the CPHC has this becoming ET when no global models forecast such in the near future. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:01, September 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 90% now, but it looks like a tropical storm already and there's banding features. Doesn't show any hints of becoming extratropical to me :/. Hopefully it's declared a tropical storm in the next advisory. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:25, September 19, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-C
And it's officially a tropical system. Still looks like it's a TS and not a TD though. Anyhow, it's forecast to reach 50 mph and not forecast to become extratropical until Monday. A weak storm, but decent for a CPAC storm, I guess. Wow, so much CPAC activity this year! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:02, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * We've already had a record 5 CPac named storms this year, if this becomes Malia we'd have 6. It could bring blustery conditions to the french frigate shoals as it heads north. Ryan1000 11:25, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wow, the CPAC is being very hesitant on calling this a TS. 3 advisories in and it's still not been upgraded.


 * Edit: It's because of issues with finding the center. If the center is in the middle of the deep convection and not where it's currently shown, then it is a tropical storm for sure. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:59, September 19, 2015 (UTC)

The CPac is on drugs this year. Here comes our 6th named storm... :O <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 17:03, September 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Actually, this might just not become a named storm. It's losing it's deep convection, and it only has 24 hours to become a weak tropical storm at best. I still think it became a tropical storm a couple days ago, hopefully post-season analysis will reveal that it was if it fails to strengthen, which is becoming increasingly likely. But seriously, if Krovanh is still a TS with the way it looks currently, then there's no way this didn't become a TS.


 * Edit: A map of winds (earth.nullschool.net) only shows the thing having 30mph winds, along with about the organization of TD9's remnant. Really, TD5? That map also made me eat my words, because it shows Krovanh actually has a well defined center of circulation despite having almost nothing on satellite. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 03:19, September 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's circulation seems to be disorganizing more. This system really is trying to fail... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:42, September 20, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Malia
Six. Named. Central. Pacific. Storms. Special advisory ups 5-C into Malia. Jake52 (talk) 12:13, September 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yes! It finally did it! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:52, September 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * Wow, this is incredible, we already had a record at 5 CPac named storms in one season with Loke, but now 6, maybe even 7 if 96C makes it? Dang. Well, at least it's heading well out to sea. Ryan1000 18:50, September 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Am I reading this correctly??!?!?! 6 named storms in the CPac in one year!?!?!?!?!?!  I'm wondering if we could at least ti​e 1992's record of activity! This is amazing! The fact that it's well away from land makes it even better!  :D           leeboy100 Rita 2005-2015 21:39, September 21, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Malia
Yes, 6 named storms in the CPac is just a really insane feat! O.O Anyway, it's post-tropical now. The CPac activity this year is the equivalent of 2005 in the Atlantic, I swear! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:03, September 23, 2015 (UTC)

96C.INVEST
AND HERE IT COMES Niall Horan NIALA THE COMBO BREAKER! --<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:22, September 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * 30%. Could the CPAC really have SEVEN named storms this year? Whoa! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:41, September 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * Make that 50%. Here comes Niala... Ryan1000 18:50, September 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Another invest. Is this really happening!??!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? :D :D   leeboy100 Rita 2005-2015 21:45, September 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * And it's 70% now! Come on, 96C! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:44, September 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * Come on, become Niala! (Female version of Niall in the boy band that everyone knows the name?) The CPac is ABSOLUTELY INSANE this year!! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:06, September 23, 2015 (UTC)


 * After being 70% for two days, it finally has increased to 80%. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:38, September 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * It even looks like a TC on satellite imagery, but I guess it's still not organized enough. Now it's 90%, Niala is right around the corner! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:03, September 25, 2015 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
This one is south of Mexico and is at 80% for 5 days. It'll probably become Marty as it heads north towards southern Mexico. Ryan1000 14:10, September 24, 2015 (UTC)


 * This AOI has an extremely great shot at developing into Marty. Here it comes, guys! It is also associated with a tropical wave which is moving through the area. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:02, September 25, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (Mid-Late September)
I really think that it would be a good idea to start tracking tropical waves for possible signs of TC development. This one is currently extending out in the middle of nowhere, and could be entering the CPac soon. It extends from 03N131W to 20N123W. Satellite imagery shows slight moisture over the area, and like all tropical waves, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a named storm in the very long run. To know about these tropical waves, they are in the Tropical Weather Discussions. It could even be yet another CPac named storm, who knows! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:02, September 25, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado...


 * EPAC
 * Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise.
 * Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager.
 * Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement.
 * Dolores: 0% - It became respectably strong, but if there were any impacts, they were negligible.
 * Enrique: Fail% - Él es el perdedor.
 * Felicia: % - Gets an F-.
 * Guillermo: 4% - Hawaii has requested retirement of storms that have threatened them without ultimately doing any harm (see Kenneth '05, Daniel '06), but if last year's Iselle wasn't retired, Guillermo doesn't stand a chance.
 * Hilda: 3% - See Guillermo, though it was nice to see the EPAC's first-ever Hurricane Hilda, especially by such a wide margin.
 * Ignacio: 0% - Long-lived and powerful hurricane, but remained away from land. Any peripheral effects in Hawaii were likely negligible at best.
 * Jimena: 0% - Ignacio Plus.
 * Kevin: 0% - Not the epic fail it could have been, but becoming stronger than expected doesn't cut it for retirement.
 * Linda: 23% - Remnants caused the worst flooding disaster in Utah's history, but if 1983's Octave and last year's Norbert didn't get retired, then Linda probably won't either.


 * CPAC
 * Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry)
 * Halola: 5% - Gets props for becoming only the second CPAC-borne storm ever to make it to Japan, but effects there were rather light.
 * Iune: -4% - It failed miserably.
 * Kilo: 0% - Persistent and triumphant, but those qualities don't merit retirement.
 * Loke: 1% - Caused blustery weather at the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, but the area came out unscathed.
 * Malia: 0% - Fail, but it did extend this year's CPAC record to 6 named storms.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

The Steve has spoken:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))

EPac:


 * Andres:  0%  - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise.


 * Blanca: <font color="#77B">2.5%  - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there.


 * Carlos: <font color="#359">5%  - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country.


 * Dolores:  0%  - It did a nice job at the major part, but impacts, if any, were meager. Baja and SoCal shouldn't get much either.
 * Enrique:  0%  - See you in 2021!
 * Felicia:  0%  - Actually, it deserves lower than an F-. It gets a Z. Yeah, that's right, a Z! What an extreme epic fail that deserves a place in the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing!
 * Guillermo:  0%  - Other than Hawaiian surf, this didn't cause much impacts other than spinning fish out in the middle of the Pacific ocean.
 * Hilda:  0%  - Hawaii never got much from her.
 * Ignacio:  0%  - Completely spared Hawaii from impacts.
 * Jimena:  0%  - Well...she was impressive to track, and lasted a long time, but she'll likely return in 2021.
 * Kevin:  0%  - As far as I know, it didn't affect land at all.
 * Linda: <font color="#AAC">1%  - Out here in SoCal, she did channel in some moisture and it also produced minor impacts along the Baja coast. But sorry Linda, you'll most likely stay.

CPac:


 * Ela:  0%  - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin.


 * Halola:  0%  - Also failed to affect land.


 * Iune:  0%  - Never in a million years.
 * Kilo:  0%  - Got very powerful and it was also a long-lasting beast, being alive for as long as 3 weeks, but lack of impacts = see you next time!
 * Loke:  0%  - Lack of impacts mean it's staying.
 * Malia:  0%  - Again, failed to do bad things to land. And it is another living proof that Mother Nature is making the CPac record-energized this year.

--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Puffle's retirements
Welp, here I go:

Legend

(Retirement colors: <font color="Silver">Fail%, 0% , <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A3">27% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (Credit to Steve)

†Andres:  0%  - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh.

†‡Blanca: <font color="#77B">2.5%  - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet...

¤‡Carlos: <font color="#4A3">27%  - This one has a higher chance at retirement, Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for another "Category 5 hype". Killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. #CarlosPLZ

Dolores:  0%  - FAIL... I'm sorry Dolores, Andres is way better looking than you

‡Enrique:  0%  - Sadly I would've expected a major from a storm named after my middle name. 3rd place of #NameWaste2015. Not tied 2nd because of the ‡.

Depression Felicia:  Fail%  - Nominee and winner of #NameWaste2015.

Gullimero -  Fail%  - these storms keep getting more fail-prone every time. Can't wait to see how much of a FAIL Hilda will be (despite that being my sister's name)

†Hilda -  0%  - Actually, forget that, Hilda you surprised me.

Eight-E - No. Just no. Why is this here? IT'S NOT NAMED!!!

†Ignacio - <font color="#AAC">1%  - Remnants could affect Northern Canada. I'll stay here.

†Jimena - ??? - Currently active.

Kevin -  Fail%  - 2nd place for #NameWaste2015. There better be no more fails after this.

Linda - ??? - Currently active. Forecast to be a very short and unamusing storm like Kevin and Felicia.

CPac Names

Ela -  Fail%  - No comment

‡Halola - See my WPac retirements.

Iune -  Fail%  - Wait, what?

†Kilo -  0%  - WHAA? A C4?! IN THE CPAC?! Wow. Still active but is a fish.

Loke -  Fail%  - Another fail, but it broke a record for most CPac names used.

†Impressive to see

‡Gained peak intensity more than once

¤Retirement possible, but not garunteed

<font face="Ubuntu">Puffle <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  00:52, August 30, 2015 (UTC)

Odile's Retirements
odile's fun retirement chances with memes

(Retirement colors 💩%,  NaN%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (thanks steve for the colors)

ayy lmao its my turn!

Andres:  NaN%  - meh.

Blanca:  NaN%  - as puffle says above.

Carlos: <font color="#70A"> carlos plz%  <font color="#4A0">25%  -  CARLOS PLZ! AIN'T NOBODY HAS TIME FO' THAT! still. carlos plz. can get a tiny shot at retirement because of the 17 million pesos on luxury yacht damage

Dolores:  15% - caused a lot of flood damage in the San Diego-Tijuana area.

Enrique:  NaN%  - HAHAHAHAHA will be suprised if it gets retired. just sayin'

F ail elicia: 💩% - [insert poop emoji here]

Eight-E:  NaN%  - well we nearly broke a record.

Guillermo:  NaN%  - fun to see an hurricane after fails.

Hilda:  NaN%  - OH NO! NO MORE FAILS... 😠😡😠😡😠

Eleven-E:  NaN%  - NO WAI!

Ignacio:  NaN%  - REALLY. #StopEPacFails

Jimena:  NaN%  - deez nutz we nearly got a C5 here

Kevin  the minion : 💩% [insert poop emoji here]

Linda: <font color="#22B">7.5%  - Linda did nothing, buuuuuut...

cpac

Ela:  NaN%  - WORST. STORM. EVER.

Halola: <font color="#AAC">1%  - well it was a nearly record-breaking storm. i'll stay here. see ya in a looooooooooooooooooong time!

Iune:  NaN%  - wat

Kilo:  NaN%  - noice nice to see a C4 in the CPac!

L<strike style="font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;">I oke:  NaN%  - meh...

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC)

Now it is time for my predictions:


 * 1) Andres - 1% - Andres was a true early surprise, and kudos to it for becoming the westernmost May major. While its remnant moisture did bring unseasonable rainfall to Phoenix and cause some power outages in Colorado, these have not been described as extreme. Therefore, I believe Andres will stay.
 * 2) Blanca - 2% - I am impressed that Blanca was able to become the earliest 2nd EPAC hurricane in general and reach the intensity it did. Its remnants brought some wave action to Puerto Vallarta and caused quite a few power outages. However, most of these were fixed within a day. Also, while SoCal did see some flooding from ex-Blanca, most of the rainfall was beneficial for the infamous drought there. Consequently, Blanca should stay as well.
 * 3) Carlos - 6% - Carlos was a little worse than either Andres or Blanca. It downed some trees and billboards around Acapulco. In addition, it sank the Bellísima luxury yacht and killed someone from falling metal. Nevertheless, most of the flooding was not widespread, and there do not seem to be extreme destruction reports from Carlos. As a result, the $1.1 million (2015 USD) price tag should not be enough for retirement.
 * 4) Ela - 0% - It was cool to see the CPAC come alive in the middle of July. But Ela did zilch to land, so you know the drill.
 * 5) Halola - TBA - Still Active
 * 6) Iune - 0% - Aside from being the earliest 3rd named CPAC storm, what did Iune do?
 * 7) Dolores - 1% - Like Andres, it was amazing to see Dolores unexpectedly become a Category 4 so quickly. Most of its impacts so far have been from its associated moisture and not the storm itself. Sure, SoCal saw some incredible rainfall (namely LA and San Diego!) from this that was "historic", but most of the precipitation will be beneficial for the area. As a matter of fact, a persistent wildfire in Cajon Pass was exhausted because of ex-Dolores's moisture. So, Dolores, you are staying put, too.
 * 8) Enrique - 0% - Enrique did surprise me with his persistence against his environment, and even became a tropical storm for a second time. But while Iglesias may have stolen Frank (1992)'s 8th storm ribbon, he did not harm land in the process.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:05, July 22, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan Grand is back:

EPac: CPac: There you go. Ryan1000 20:39, July 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres - 0% - Became pretty strong for such an early-season storm, but it caused no direct damage on land, so it won't be retired.
 * Blanca - 3% - Earliest 2nd (major) hurricane of any EPac season on record, and also the earliest Baja California landfall as well, but overall damage wasn't too severe; if anything the rainfall from it's remnants helped ease up California's drought a little.
 * Carlos - 5% - Slightly worse than Blanca, and Mexico was fortunate Carlos didn't get past category 1 strength as it neared the coastline, but this was no Manuel. It was modest at most, and will be coming back again in 2021.
 * Dolores - 0% - Slightly weaker than Andres, and als a bit farther east, but overall impacts from surf were minor at most.
 * Enrique - 0% - Fail, but at least he didn't fail as bad as Failicia.
 * Failicia - Pun% - << See the name.
 * Guillermo - 0% - Steered well clear of Hawaii, with no known damage or deaths.
 * Hilda - 0% - Did nothing notable to Hawaii, but it was still nice to see it become the first hurricane hilda ever.
 * Ignacio - 0% - Missed Hawaii well to the north, and won't be retired.
 * Jimena - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Kevin - 0% - Didn't expect it to fight that much, but it won't be retired anyways.
 * Linda - 1% - It's a real shame that this storm couldn't go without impact before dying...but 1 death and a little damage from surf won't cut the bill. And the extratropical flooding in Utah doesn't cut it for retirement either. It's also the first major hurricane this year that didn't become a cat 4.
 * Ela - 0% - Nice early start for the CPac, but nothing to speak of regarding impacts.
 * Halola - 1% - Caused 1.2 million in crop damage to southern Japan, with no deaths. Not nothing, but not enough either.
 * Iune - 0% - See Ela.
 * Kilo - 0% - It was one of the top 10 longest-lived tropical cyclones ever observed, but it didn't cause noticeable impacts on land.
 * Loke - 0% - Didn't harm land, but damn, 5 CPac named storms in one season. That's a new record.
 * Malia - 0% - Aside from extending our (already record-setting) CPac named storm count from 5 to 6, there's nothing else to say here.

I could have sworn I already made one of these. Oh, well. Here's mine.

EPac: CPac: leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 22:55, August 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres- 0%: Fun to track and didn't hit land. Nice storm, but it won't be retired
 * Blanca- 1%: Major hurricane that did cause damage, but not enough to be retired.
 * Carlos- 5%: One death and $1.1 million, again, it's not going anywhere.
 * Dolores- 0%: Again, an impressive storm, and minimal damage
 * Enrique- 0% Nope.
 * Felicia- 0% Bye Felicia, see you in 2021.
 * Guillermo- 0% majorly hyped, but wound up doing nothing much
 * Hilda- 0% See Delores, except it caused no damage.
 * Ignacio: 0% Didn't affect land, but affected my appetite for nachos (sorry, I've made too many nacho jokes haven't I?)
 * Jimena: 0% Fun to track and lasted a long time, but it's not going anywhere
 * Kevin: 0% I, unlike others on this wiki, do not consider Kevin a fail, because it was heavily sheared. It tried hard and fought with the shear but didn't make it, so it's not going anwhere.
 * Linda: 1% It managed to cause one death. Gosh, my last few predictions from Dolores to Kevin make me feel like Jan from that Toyota commercial. "Zero percent! Zero percent!" at retirement :P
 * Ela- 0%: Well, it existed
 * Halola- 1%: Did nothing in the CPac but crossed into the WPac and hit Japan, causing $1.2 million. Still Japan has been hit by many storms way worse than this, I doubt they'll even remember it.
 * Iune:-0%: Meh, at least it didn't do damage
 * Kilo: 0% Well, well. Kilo is finally dead and is one of the longest-lived storms on record. But, hey if John in 1994 wasn't retired, then Kilo won't be either. See you in whenever, I guess.......................
 * Loke- 0% It didn't hit land, but it broke the record for most named storms in the CPac.
 * Delores? Dolores* <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  15:53, September 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Whoops, my bad. I fixed it. Although, coincidentally the name Dolores was mispelled the exact same way on the naming list in 1991! So apparently I'm not alone.   leeboy100 My Talk! 23:29, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Andres's TCR was released a while ago, and Felicia's was completed last week. Andres's winds were reduced slightly from 130 kts to 125 (no advisory had Andres at 130 kts, but it was mentioned in one of the discussions that Andres was believed to have peaked at that intensity in between advisories), but its pressure was nudged downward from 938 mbar to 937. Nothing new came with Felicia's TCR. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:00, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * I wish Jimena was a little stronger operationally, but it's very unlikely post-season reanalysis will upgrade it to a 5 like it could've been, but it could be upped slightly to 155 mph in either one of its peaks. I don't think there's any other storm this year that I have hopes for being upgraded in reanalysis (as of yet). Ryan1000 19:07, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * 8-E, Enrique's TCR are out. <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  20:21, September 19, 2015 (UTC)