Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season/August

AOI: Gulf of Tehuantepec
Has not been invested, but an area of disturbed weather has formed. NHC has 10% on it. Let's keep watch on this system, may be our Fernanda. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 00:49, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's up to 20%. If this thing becomes a hurricane, it will tie 1966 for the all-time record of hurricanes since the start of the season. Ryan1000 07:47, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Also, if the AOI somehow manages to reach hurricane strength, it would be the earliest date for a season's sixth hurricane since 1992's Georgette, which reached that strength on July 16, 1992. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:04, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Also, if the AOI somehow manages to reach hurricane strength, it would be the earliest date for a season's sixth hurricane since 1992's Georgette, which reached that strength on July 16, 1992. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:04, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Also, if the AOI somehow manages to reach hurricane strength, it would be the earliest date for a season's sixth hurricane since 1992's Georgette, which reached that strength on July 16, 1992. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 17:04, August 2, 2011 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
I'm seeing this thing as Invest 97 on Wunderground [1], so I think this has been invest'd? Anyway, most of the models are taking this W/WNW-ward, though we have an outlier in BAMD, which predicts this thing to go as far south as near 5°N! --HurricaneMaker99 17:29, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Recon in this system. YE Tropical Cyclone 17:37, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, it's on track. BTW 50% CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 18:39, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * if it Develops into Fernada it would not be a hurricane because it only has two days in favorable conditions Allanjeffs August 2, 2011
 * The wave is now at 70% chance of formation. Looks like Fernanda is coming soon! If it does what the IVCN says, than welcome to the 6th named storm and 6th hurricane of the year!
 * Actually, Tropical Storm Fernanda is likely, but not Hurricane Fernanda because 97E is really close to Hurricane Eugene. Hurricane Andrew (aka User: Andrew444) 22:20, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * That should not be a problem since Eugene is going faster than Fernanda. YE Tropical Cyclone 22:37, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * True. In the semi-long term, 15 kts will easily outrun a system moving 5 or even 10 kts. Besides, Eugene is moving WNW, so it should get its butt out of here soon. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 22:51, August 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 50% is the chance now. Looks like it's waning. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 20:39, August 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 40%. I'm thinking Fernanda will have to wait. --HurricaneMaker99 03:26, August 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Is 10 now sorry for the confusion I was sleppy when I plost Allanjeffs 15 :16 August 4 2011
 * STFU. Why is it going out? There is some convection. Why are you saying never, an din fact I am surprised that it is at 1%. YE Tropical Cyclone 20:12, August 4, 2011 (UTC)::
 * Long poof. YE Tropical Cyclone 19:00, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * STFU. Why is it going out? There is some convection. Why are you saying never, an din fact I am surprised that it is at 1%. YE Tropical Cyclone 20:12, August 4, 2011 (UTC)::
 * Long poof. YE Tropical Cyclone 19:00, August 11, 2011 (UTC)

AOI:Off Central America
And another wave comes in the EPac. It is slowly heading westward and it may become Fernanda in the long future, and if it becomes a hurricane, we will tie 1966 for the record number of consecutive hurricanes since the start of the season. Currently it's only at 10% however. Ryan1000 23:52, August 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * We currently own the record, it is not a tie. YE Tropical Cyclone 01:51, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * What do you mean? 1966 had the first 6 storms become hurricanes. This season had the first 5 do so. We need one more hurricane to tie 1966's record. Ryan1000 17:14, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * The first six named storms became hurricane. However, they were intervening depressions in between these hurricanes.YE Tropical Cyclone
 * I don't think this AOI is going to become a hurricane. Development is expected to be slow, and 10% (according to the NHC) at this far west in the basin isn't promising. We'll have to wait and see on this one. Suprise11 18:39, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * At every system at 10% they say something like this. And the storms that form west are favorable for development and over warm waters. YE Tropical Cyclone 19:08, August 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is the invest off of CA, not the one far at sea, that one is now 98E below. So this one could easily be Hurricane Fernanda as it heads out to sea, but 98E is going into much colder waters down the road. Ryan1000 05:25, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * At 30%. TD 7-E or TS Greg? Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:03, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * At 30%. TD 7-E or TS Greg? Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:03, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * At 30%. TD 7-E or TS Greg? Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:03, August 15, 2011 (UTC)

70%! Yqt1001 13:45, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Update: It's now TS Greg. 17 Aug 2011 (by Anonymous 2.0) 22:08 (UTC+8)

Hip, hip, hooray! Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:19, August 17, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven-E
New TD! YE Tropical Cyclone 20:46, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * And forecast to be... yet another hurricane? Man, the EPac is going crazy with hurricanes, and if this storm(Greg) becomes a hurricane and by chance, Fernanda becomes one, we will have the first 7 storms become hurricanes, the all-time record if that happens. Ryan1000 23:58, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Greg
45 knts. YE Tropical Cyclone 15:24, August 17, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Greg

 * Should be change to hurricane Greg EP, 07, 2011081800,, BEST, 0, 173N, 1075W, 65, 987, HU .Allanjeffs 01:42, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * YE, this might be too much to ask, but could you please send some hurricanes to the ATL? Preferably out to sea, but I've had enough of watching these storms become category 4 hurricanes in 12 hours and watching the ATL storms struggle to maintain their convection... Yqt1001 01:51, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't have control over that. YE Tropical Cyclone 02:25, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Personally, I would not have upgraded it into a hurricane. While I do see the data pointed out by the NHC, I would have put it at 60 kts on the following reasons: SAB (SSD) was still at T3.5, UW-CIMMS was still at T3.3, and while data T's were at 4.0, instinct and final T #'s don't really suggest 65 kts (more like a compromise of 60 kts). I would have waited for the next m-wave pass to see whether the eye has strengthened or organized at least slightly... but, that's just my opinion. But, that doesn't really matter right now, as it would eventually (or is currently) reach hurricane status. Darren23Edits 02:55, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * hey Darren good to see that you back Allanjeffs 03:15, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gah, who cares, Greg would have been a 'cane anyways, and keep in mind Fernanda isn't quite done yet; it still could briefly become a hurricane before dying down. It(Fernanda) is now up to 60 mph and Greg's a minimal cat 1. I wouldn't be surprised if Greg takes advantage of the favorable conditions ahead of it a bit and explodes like Eugene and Adrian did earlier this season. We'll wait and see about that though. Ryan1000 05:18, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Weakening now Allanjeffs 03:35, August 19, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Greg (2nd Time)

 * Its a tropical storm now Allanjeffs 14:45, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * 35 knts. Bah, everyone come back to the EPAC! YE Tropical Cyclone 14:54, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

I still come on this forum from time to time, especially since none of the NAtl storms as of yet ae hurricanes, and we have had 6 thus far here. I think everyone is a bit distracted by the NAtl, but nothing has been interesting as of yet, except for Irene, but I don't know if it will be a re-Emily or a re-Gordon. We'll see about that. Greg is gone, and a new AOI has formed south of Mexico now, which could become Hilary if it gets its act together enough. Except for Beatriz, everything thus far in EPac has been a fish. I'll be on the NAtl forum for some time, but I won't abandon ths forum doing so. Ryan1000 23:51, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Greg
Down to a TD now, last advisory is likely soon. =( Ryan1000 04:30, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Greg
It's down and out. Guess the EPac is starting to slow down a bit. Ryan1000 17:00, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

98E. Invest
Poof, and there you go. Just as it was given a chance of formation for the first time, it was invested immediately. Currently having a 10% chance of formation whilst moving west or WSW. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 02:17, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay!!! YE Tropical Cyclone 02:33, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * WOW. Already at 70% and looking better defined than Franklin or any of the Atlantic invets. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 15:06, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah it's looking nice. NHC says that a TD could be forming and advisories could be starting soon. Yqt1001 16:23, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 80% now. Yqt1001 18:45, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay!! Could we go 6 for 6 or even 7 for 7. YE Tropical Cyclone 19:23, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * I have a feeling that this could be Pewa, and not Fernanda. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 20:04, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Before I get everyone confused, the CPAC it is NOT a basin so either way if it becomes a hurricane we will be 6/6 (unless the disturbance near MX forms first). YE Tropical Cyclone 21:21, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Tropical Depression Six-E (or Tropical Depression One-C) is coming. Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:53, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * One-C? This is nowhere near the CPHC, east of 130, CPHC is 140.YE Tropical Cyclone 23:53, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * It doesnt't matter if it becomes Pewa or Fernanda, if it becomes a hurricane, we will tie 1966 for the first 6 named storms be hurricanes, and it's also the first year to have the first 6 storms become hurricanes. 1966 had many depressions not reach storm strength in between the hurricane streak that year, so this year is already record-setting in many ways. Ryan1000 01:33, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * God, this system is looking worse and worse. YE Tropical Cyclone 04:33, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 70%. This forum has became dead and it is suppose to be the most active forum on Hurricane Wiki.YE Tropical Cyclone 15:00, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 70%. WHERE IS EVERYBODY? YE Tropical Cyclone 18:58, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Probably over at the ATL forums. It's been a while since Eugene, and in that time, we've gotten both Franklin and, as of today, Gert, not to mention the other systems worth watching in the ATL. --HurricaneMaker99 19:08, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Probably over at the ATL forums. It's been a while since Eugene, and in that time, we've gotten both Franklin and, as of today, Gert, not to mention the other systems worth watching in the ATL. --HurricaneMaker99 19:08, August 14, 2011 (UTC)

Well, all of the storms in NAtl are just pathetic of yet. Franklin spun fish for 30 hours and Gert won't hit Bermuda too hard, plus 92L is rather close to Gert and if that wave becomes Harvey it likely won't affect land anyways. This wave is future hurricane Fernanda in my book, and we should pay some attention here since the Atlantic hasn't been interesting as of yet. Sure we had a lot of storms thus far in NAtl but most of them were weak, short-lived, and remained at sea. We still haven't had any giant U.S. major hurricanes as of yet, but I fear we will indeed have one coming at some point in this season. Ryan1000 21:02, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * SHIPS predicts a peak of 56mph... Yqt1001 03:04, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%. YE Tropical Cyclone 13:43, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * This could be a warning for Hawaii if TS Fernanda/ Pewa comes. :( Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:59, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * This aint going anywhere near Hawaii. Too far south. YE Tropical Cyclone 15:47, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Approaching the CPHC's area of responsibility, only 7 degrees of longitude to go. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 16:25, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 70%. But according to the NHC, just a little more devolpment and we have the 6th tropical cyclone of the 2011 PHS. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:03, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 70%. But according to the NHC, just a little more devolpment and we have the 6th tropical cyclone of the 2011 PHS. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:03, August 15, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
Here we go!YE Tropical Cyclone 20:52, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * So it looks that TD 6 will be tropical storm Fernanda but not a hurricane but we will see Allanjeffs 21:06, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Six-E's on the road to becoming the 6th tropical storm of the season, but the 6th hurricane? IDK, the NHC doesn't take it up to hurricane status. But I would love to see 2011 tie 1966 for the all time record of most consecutive hurricanes from the start. Oh, and Allanjeffs, you misspelled "Fernanda". Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:15, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Thanks Hurricane Andrew is that I am always at hurryAllanjeffs 22:26, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Will probably enter CPAC as I said earlier...my predicton takes this to a 60 mph tropical storm. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 23:14, August 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * What an epic fail! 91.18.66.10 06:59, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Epic fails are bad :P YE Tropical Cyclone 14:20, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda
40 knt per RBT. YE Tropical Cyclone 14:20, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Yay! The sixth tropical storm of the season! And if you didn't know, Fernanda has made history. This is the tenth time Fernanda has been used to name a tropical cyclone. In other words, Fernanda now ties Estelle as the most frequently used name in EPAC history, and also ties with Estelle and Arlene as the most frequently used name in W. Hem. history. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:01, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Where is everyone?! Since I last posted, Fernanda is up to 50 mph, and she could make the season history. Nope, 1966 will still retain the all time record of most consecutive hurricanes from the start. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:17, August 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, 2011 owns the record. 1966 had intervening depression's. YE Tropical Cyclone 15:23, August 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Last NHC advisory issued... now in the CPAC. It is the first storm in that area since Omeka last December, and I believe this is the first time since Lana in 2009 that a tropical cyclone crossed the EPAC/CPAC boundary (note: Lana was only a TD before its crossing). Hilda was the last crossing, I overlooked quite a few storms. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:06, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, Hilda 09 was the most recent to move into the AOR. Get your facts right. YE Tropical Cyclone 14:18, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * If Fernanda survives its journey through the central pacific, I think Fernanda could regenerate (assuming it becomes a remnant low) and become a tropical storm again. The real question here is that if it does survive, can it become a hurricane before it would cross over into the West Pacific. Suprise11 06:18, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * If Fernanda survives its journey through the central pacific, I think Fernanda could regenerate (assuming it becomes a remnant low) and become a tropical storm again. The real question here is that if it does survive, can it become a hurricane before it would cross over into the West Pacific. Suprise11 06:18, August 19, 2011 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fernanda
And there goes the first storm of this year's EPAC season to fail to reach hurricane strength. I'm honestly quite happy about this, since it looks like Fernanda and Harvey might go hand-in-hand to level the playing field, just a little bit. --HurricaneMaker99 03:06, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

Bye, Fernanda! At least you didn't reach hurricane strength. I'm getting sick of hurricanes. Now there is one record 2011 has failed to break: the most consecutive named storms that reached hurricane status from the start (technically, 2011 owns the record for most consecutive storms becoming hurricanes from the start, but 1966 still holds the record I said above). Hurricane Andrew (444) 14:14, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes 1966 holds the record for NAMED storms to become hurricanes, but 2011 was the first season on record to have the first 5 storms become hurricanes. TD's form every year in the EPac and not one season since 1971 hasn't had any depressions not be named storms. 1966 technically isn't in the reliable record books, so there is a good chance a few more unnoticed TD's or TS's came between those hurricanes. In the same way, Natalie of 1964 holds the record latest first storm of EPac since 1949, but we consider Ava of 1969 as having been the latest since we could have missed a few storms back then. So if you only go since 1971, this year holds the record. Ryan1000 15:02, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:South of Mexico
20% now. 10L.NONAME 20:34, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

93E.INVEST

 * 40% now Allanjeffs 01:08, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Invested.10L.NONAME 01:15, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looking at the atmospheric conditions, I think this will develop. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 01:20, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this will develop. With future Hurricane Katia in the CATL, I really don't care. :P Darren23Edits 01:22, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Pressure at 1004 mbar. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 01:27, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

Well, Katia's a fish storm in my future; it developed much further east than Irene and will probrably pull a Danielle, or at best an Earl, but not an Irene all over again. This disturbance is at 50% now, and I think it may have a future as Hurricane Hilary. Ryan1000 13:30, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

60%10L.NONAME 20:08, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

Maybe a strong tropical storm because she is close to land, and now that la NIÑA is coming back i think we will see slow development of tropical cyclones in this basin on the future Allanjeffs 20:50, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * My prediction: Beatriz repeat. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 22:16, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60% now. Could we have Hillary in a day or two. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * It's heading a little away from land, so by the time that happens, it could be yet another hurricane(I hope), but stay away from anyone by that time. La Nina conditions aren't currently present; it's ENSO neutral, but we could transfer to La Nina back again by early next year. We won't get El Nino by that time. Ryan1000 23:56, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90%. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:18, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 8-E
And here it is. Forecast to head NW and towards a... Landfall in Mexico? It may hit them, but it'll have to work fast to become a hurricane, unless it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 14:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

No additional intensification forecasted. YE Tropical Cyclone A lot of uncertainty in the track though, I haven't seen a cone that wide at the 12 hour point in a long time. Yqt1001 16:07, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

There aren't even TS warnings up, and there is a chance it may never become Hilary at all, unless it heads out to sea instead of makes landfall in Mexico. Ryan1000 16:35, August 31, 2011 (UTC

Remnants of Eight

 * Made landfall on Mexico. Nice tracking you, 8-E.10L.NONAME 20:59, August 31, 2011 (UTC

Dead and gone. This was a 6 (depending on who you ask) hour miracle fail. Darren23Edits 00:42, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The first fail for me of the 2011 pacific hurricane season, but that is my opinion Allanjeffs 01:40, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Some models do have regeneration in the Gulf of California. IMO, this is the third fail of the season. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Which are your other two YE ?Allanjeffs 02:14, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Beatriz and Ferenda. YE Tropical Cyclone 03:30, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Beatriz was no fail(IMO) because it actually affected land and killed some people and caused some damage. This storm may have caused some damages or deaths too. Only Fernanda was a fail, it wouldn't have been had it been a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:35, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Stiil at 20%.10L.NONAME 20:03, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone.10L.NONAME 14:51, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone.10L.NONAME 14:51, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

91C.INVEST
Wunderground has this. Not in a good place to form. But it has a spin to it. Some models are have this too. 10L.NONAME 21:24, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

Gone now. 10L.NONAME 19:59, September 2, 2011 (UTC)