Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Well, the 2012 Pacific hurricane season hasn't yet begun, but I do believe we will have a 12-17 storm season, a 5-9 hurricane season, and a 3-4 major hurricane season in 2012's PHS. =) Ryan1000 01:09, July 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * 13 - 18 named storms, 9 - 11 hurricanes, 3 - 6 major hurricanes.10Q.INVEST 12:16, September 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Later in the year I will put my prediction to see how it goes.Allanjeffs 03:18, January 30, 2012 (UTC)


 * 14 days before the season officially starts.... :D Cyclone10  E-Mail  20:14, May 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ten more days! :D -- Cyclone10  E-Mail  15:46, May 5, 2012 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
So, what are all you guys pre-season predictions? Mines is 15-7-4, going low this year since I over anticipated the last two years. YE Tropical Cyclone  01:41, March 9, 2012 (UTC)

14-8-5. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:21, March 31, 2012 (UTC)

probably more because it looks like a neuter year.Allanjeffs 22:51, March 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * 14 is average in a neutral year. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:38, March 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * 14 to 17 name stoms.Allanjeffs 05:35, April 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Because the latest CSU forecast calls for ENSO this Summer/Fall, I'm going for 18-10-6. Ryan1000 20:06, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
I bet NONE of us saw this coming!-- Cy10 E-Mail  19:30, April 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * It needs more convection to become a TC. Cy10 E-Mail  19:39, April 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Convection is increasing, who knows what could happen? Omeka 2.0? BTW, there was a storm in April before. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * About to enter the WPAC. Oh, and where is everybody? You'd think everyone would come rushing in, is HWiki going dead or something? Is it non appearing the the recent changes thingy? YE Tropical Cyclone  04:18, April 8, 2012 (UTC)




 * No, HWiki is just dead. D: JMA probably will issue advisories for 90C. Cy10 E-Mail  05:43, April 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Probably eill be the second names storm of the Western pacificAllanjeffs 06:25, April 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * And its classified as as Sub-tropical system now

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 178.5E, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND.THE MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION (070900Z) REVEALS A WEAK WARM CORE ANOMALY THAT IS HORIZONTALLY LARGE AND DISPLACED HIGHER IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY SEEN FOR A TYPICAL WARM CORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE WEAK CENTRAL WINDS, DISPLACED CONVECTION, AND TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS, THIS DISTURBANCE IS CLASSIFIED AS A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST A TRANSITION INTO A WARM CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT RATHER OPENS THE CIRCULATION INTO A WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE LOW THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.Allanjeffs 18:43, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

It's gone now. 90C was absorbed by front. Cy10 E-Mail  20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC)

YE, Carmen of 1980 existed in the CPAC in that April, but didn't form there. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:03, April 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * That still counts as a TC. YE Tropical  Cyclone  22:56, May 11, 2012 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Came out of nowhere really. None of the models really showed this occurring today, more like weeks from now. But here it is and it looks great! Yqt1001 19:20, May 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * A preseason storm would be really nice. :D Cyclone10  E-Mail  19:46, May 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * First presason invest in EPAC NHC AOR since 2006. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * NHC says that 90E has a medium chance of becoming a TC.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  14:37, May 12, 2012 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
A floater but not confirmed by ATCF. Looks nicer anyways and probably has the best chance to develop. Yqt1001 19:50, May 11, 2012 (UTC)

yawn* Whoa, whoa, whoa! What do we have here? A pre-season invest in EPac? I haven't seen anything this early since tropical storm one-e in 1996. It's not every day we have a pre-season storm in the East Pacific proper, and although this storm (Aletta) would be the first one in 16 years, it's only a day or two before the official start of the season. It's not that far before the season begins (1992 holds that record). Ryan1000 20:55, May 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * Imagine both 90E and 91E formed before May 15. Or is my calender screwed, and it is really June and summer (which means I have no school). YE Tropical Cyclone  23:00, May 11, 2012 (UTC)

this what the NHC says about the systems: AT LOWER LEVELS...TWO AREAS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION HAVE EVOLVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING INDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ONE NEAR 09N105.5W AND A SECOND NEAR 09N105.5W. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN IN AGREEMENT THAT PAST SEVERAL RUNS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. RECENTLY...THE WESTERN-MOST LOW HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND SOME SHORT BANDS...BUT CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DRIER LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR IS SLOWLY REACHING NEAR THIS FEATURE FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...THE MORE EASTERN LOW DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A PARTIAL 1646 UTC ASCAT PASS DID NOT SUGGEST A WELL DEFINED CENTER WITH SIGNIFICANT WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS LOW TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS N DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY INSISTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS THIS THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AS  IT PRESENTLY COVERED IN OUR OUR HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2. I actually like more the Atlantic than the Pacific so I hope we get Alberto soon.Allanjeffs 00:30, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think only one of them will form the NHC is not very enthusiastic with these two systems anyway we could have Aletta or we could have nothing.Allanjeffs 00:25, May 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Looking better than 90E right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Well, I don't care whether or not Alberto's coming, Aletta's likely coming sooner one way or another. As I said, if this thing develops, it would be the first pre-season storm in this basin since tropical storm one-e in 1996. Ryan1000 05:57, May 12, 2012 (UTC)