Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

96E.INVEST
Whoa, that was quick. Currently at 10%, but the models don't go as crazy as I expected with this. Might be a hurricane, but that's about it. SHIPS only peaks this at 70 knots in the far future. Then again, that was the same kind of prediction they made for Eugene last year and look what happened...There's another low that could come behind this and explode in the next 3-4 days though. EPac's starting to ramp up. Ryan1000 13:58, July 2, 2012 (UTC)

I say at least a cat 2 Allanjeffs 15:34, July 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep, this blew up and looks really good.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:51, July 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now up to 30% -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:52, July 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * It seems every storm named Daniel wants to be a long-lived major threatening Hawaii. This one probrably will too, in the long run, but I don't think it will make it to the islands themselves. Ryan1000 21:23, July 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * Probably will be our second major of the year and I say ex 97L in the Atlantic will develop in the pacific and will become Emilia.Allanjeffs 22:31, July 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * I have a question by any chance can someone give me a link to the 2006 and 2005 hurricane seasonal discussion that I can`t find it. thanks Allanjeffs 00:12, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its on the Wikipedia talk pages. 96.242.128.215 00:21, July 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Can you give me the link please.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Allan, see the archives on the talk page of the wikipedia pages. Here is the talk page of 2005. Just scroll down a bit and you'll see a monthly and storm event archives at the bottom part of the orange-colored talk page header. Do the same with 2006's Talk page. You'll see the archives. And yeah, after this one, the models pick up on another storm coming into EPac 3-4 days out, possibly exploding into a major, like Daniel-to be is expected to. SHIPS doesn't take this storm to hurricane intensity right now, but intensity forecasting has been off with some EPac storms. They require less energy to intensify since most of them are small in size. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a C4 out of this, like in 2006. Ryan1000 02:33, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * thanks Ryan I agree probable Daniel and Emilia will be majors.Allanjeffs 03:58, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aside from Hawaii, which both may threaten in the long run, there's nothing else going on. They'll probrably be fish storms. None of the models foresee development from anything in the Atlantic for the next week and WPac also seems to be silent. Ryan1000 05:19, July 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah, the models are pretty consistent with this heading out way to the west. But they seem to be less aggresive then usual. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:54, July 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50%! Cyclone10 E-Mail  15:42, July 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think this will be one of those unexpected C4 surprises. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:23, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

And we're up to 80% ! And yeah, I was thinking the same thing. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 17:41, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Daniel is coming and they are forecasting a stronger Emilia right now.Allanjeffs 17:59, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

And Ryan the WPac is not thatquiet there is a medium percent chance of a formation of a tropical cyclone near the Phillippines.Allanjeffs 18:02, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Definitely going to become Daniel. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:06, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

I know there are some storms near Luzon that may organize into a TS, but it won't be that strong if it does so. Ryan1000 18:33, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Should become a tropical depression later today... and watch for the disturbance behind it too. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:02, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

probably will be td 4E at 11pmAllanjeffs 21:32, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

90% here comes Daniel.Allanjeffs 23:38, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Anytime now, 96E. And yeah, Emilia will follow behind Daniel in the next few days. Ryan1000 03:21, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
It's here. NHC doesn't even expect this to be a hurricane, though. Ryan1000 09:54, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

I think it will become a hurricane, despite its conditions ahead. 96.242.128.215 12:55, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

I believe Four-E will pull an Adrian/Eugene/Kenneth and become at least a Category 3, but I have high expectations of this becoming a Category 5. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:07, July 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * I expect a C2 out of this. Cyclone10 E-Mail  13:54, July 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * The models are really conservative on this one. Unfortunately I don't know the reason however. HWRF is pretty agressive with 4E. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:58, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * At most, the only thing I see from this system is 70-75 kt Cat 1, based on pure gut feeling and climatology. I'm too lazy to look at the models right now. Darren 23 CWC 14:43, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * I guess the models really think it will be slow to organize, or think it won't be in very favorable conditions 3-4 days out. Ryan1000 17:17, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Daniel
What, did everyone give up on 4E? LOL. Anyway, we finally have Daniel. The 8am advisory says 45 mph, 1002 mbar. Forecast to peak at 70 mph. --HurricaneMaker99 15:22, July 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * 45 mph? You have to admit, that strucutre looks really good for any minimal tropical storm.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 16:11, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I guess it does. I'm probably not nearly as good at this as you are, but I'd fancy a guess of 60 mph, 65 tops. --HurricaneMaker99 17:13, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * I still have high confidence in Daniel becoming a hurricane (at least a weak Category 1, but maybe a Category 2/3). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:19, July 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * Daniel looks excellent in rainbow top image should be up to 60 imo.Allanjeffs 17:20, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * That's what the ATCF says. --HurricaneMaker99 19:16, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * About time, it was a depression for a while. I still strongly believe we will see a hurricane from Daniel, but I'm not so convinced about major hurricane strength now. Ryan1000 19:21, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * It already has a true eye. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:31, July 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * Daniel its on its way on becoming the third hurricane of the season andI think that is the gfs but it is forecasting Emilia and Fabio if the NAHS want to be on pair with the eastern pacific it need to hurry up.Allanjeffs 20:10, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is a high chance of Daniel becoming a hurricane, though it won't be affecting land anyways. Nothing else seems to be brewing. The MJO is currently stalling over the NIO, but nothing's developing there because this isn't the ideal time of year for storms to develop there. El Nino conditions are starting to arrive, but we're not officially in El Nino yet. We will be by September/October, but that doesn't mean ATL won't be able to produce a significant storm by then. A little off-topic, but the record heat wave, even where I am in Michigan, hasn't stopped, as the midwest hit 100 degree temps in many places over the past few days. That ridge of high pressure over the central U.S. is almost inpenetrable. We've had some rain every now and then, but still. Ryan1000 01:07, July 6, 2012 (UTC)

The latest ATCF bumps Daniel up to 55 kts, but based on the satellite imagery, I think Daniel should be a hurricane in the next 12 hours. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 01:24, July 6, 2012 (UTC)

I agree, it will probrably be upgraded soon. I'm surprised it's not one now, it really looks the part, but it's winds probrably haven't reflected it's appearance yet. Ryan1000 04:54, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks like it never became a hurricane all night, but recently they've bumped it to 70 mph. -- CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 15:00, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now Dry air is entering the system if Daniel doesn`t become a system today then maybe he will never become a hurricane after al.Allanjeffs 20:11, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Relax, Daniel has 24 hours left. YE Tropical Cyclone  21:37, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * I thought he would be much stronger. I was wrong. 75-80 mph isn't out of the question, but that's it. Ryan1000 23:16, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Me too looks like this Daniel would not be a strong system after all But I think Emilia is a different story.Allanjeffs 23:35, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * I can see an eye starting to take shape. Earlier today I was skeptical about Daniel becoming a hurricane, but it looks like I could be wrong. He probably won't go any further than a C1, but I'd predict a peak around 75 mph, 80 tops. --HurricaneMaker99 23:48, July 6, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Daniel
Yep, now it's a hurricane with winds of 75mph and a pressure of 988 mbar.Supportstorm 01:10, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

the third hurricane of the Eastern north pacific has come to us base on the ATCF files.EP, 04, 2012070700,, BEST, 0, 145N, 1164W, 65, 988, HU.Allanjeffs 01:12, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think creating a new header is jumping the gun a bit - remember Katia in the ATL last year, and how the ATCF upgraded it to a hurricane but the NHC didn't follow suit? I would have waited until we had official word from the NHC, but I won't remove the header unless the 8 pm advisory keeps Daniel as a tropical storm. --HurricaneMaker99 01:24, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * The RBT is from the NHC. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:36, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Really? Huh. Thanks for the info. Anyway, it's official now. Daniel's a hurricane. --HurricaneMaker99 02:51, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:56, July 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * He'll probrably peak here, or maybe become an 80-85 mph hurricane before weakening sometime tomorow. Ryan1000 07:50, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Near Costa Rica
Here comes the pre invest 97 E future Emilia is at 10% now and will probably be a major.Allanjeffs 05:43, July 4, 2012 (UTC)

I only forecast this AOI to become a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:09, July 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * The models have been on to this one for a while.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 13:59, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * This has a better chance of being stronger than Daniel (four-e) may, but less than a C5. Ryan1000 17:17, July 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%Allanjeffs 18:40, July 5, 2012 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. The models are pretty straightforward with this thing. They're more agressive with this than they are with Daniel, but like Daniel, they keep it out to sea. Emilia is coming soon... Ryan1000 13:30, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks about as good as any strong developing system. Should become Emilia in a short time.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:56, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50% Cyclone10  E-Mail  18:01, July 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * up to 60% here comes future Emilia.Allanjeffs 23:51, July 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Can't wait to see it! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:39, July 7, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: -- Cyclone10 E-Mail  16:14, July 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Not even close.
 * Bud - 5% - It brought beneficial rain.
 * Carlotta - 7% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Daniel - ?

Mine:


 * Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but had no impact on land.
 * Bud - 2% - Fun storm to follow, but not enough damage.
 * Carlotta - 5% - Killed two girls.
 * Daniel - TBA - Still Active

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Mine


 * Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.
 * Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.
 * Carlotta15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying.
 * Daniel???
 * Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement.
 * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you.
 * Carlotta - 10% - It caused some impacts in Mexico, but it definitely wasn't severe enough for retirement.

CobraStrike:


 * Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm.
 * Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement.

 CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)