Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

99S.INVEST
Inside the Mozambique Channel.-- Cyclone10 00:05, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

This storm looks like it could cause some serious flooding, but i'm not expecting signifigant development of this system. Possibly it could become a minimal cyclone, but that's probrably it. I would be a bit surprised if we don't get Chanda at all though. BTW, we forgot to add the damage total section in the betting pools; I just put that in now. Ryan1000 00:12, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

It looks better on satellite now.-- Cyclone10 02:38, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

TCFA alert!-- Cy10 21:16, January 6, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Chanda... Ryan1000 01:03, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Not yet...-- Cy10 03:55, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Still not yet...-- Cy10 19:13, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

It probably be upgrade at any moment Allanjeffs 21:49, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 05S
On Wikipedia, it says this is a zone of disturbed weather, but I'm not sure if that counts as a tropical cyclone. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:44, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

Now it has been designated Tropical Cyclone 05S by the JTWC. And no, we don't have Chanda quite yet. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:48, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

It's so close to becoming Chanda though... As I said earlier, it will probrably intensify into a category 1 storm or so before making landfall in Madagascar's southwest coast. The current forecast only takes it to a tropical storm, but given the way it looks, i'd be surprised if it doesn't become a minimal cyclone. Ryan1000 23:53, January 7, 2012 (UTC)

You mean a moderate tropical storm?-- Cy10 00:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Well, yeah, but anyhow, I still think Chanda will become a C1 cyclone in the future. And we can leave it as Tropical Cyclone 05S in the storms header, there's no need to put in so many words. Wunderground has it as 05S, JTWC has it as 05S, we should too. Ryan1000 01:01, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t think it will be much maybe a moderate to severe tropical storm Allanjeffs 02:03, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Chanda
Named and at 35kts 10-min. Yqt1001 15:13, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

It won't get strong before its Madagascar landfall according to the official forecast (unless it pulls a Lorenzo or Humberto and becomes a tropical cyclone). Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  15:29, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

I knew it was not going to be much just a rainmaker Allanjeffs 19:48, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

...and there goes the last advisory by JTWC..-- Cy10 23:09, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Made landfall and should dissipate soon. I don't expect to see much damage other than rainfall. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:48, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Chanda
Is it a fail?-- Cy10 03:04, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

At least it form Allanjeffs 12:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

I was expecting worse... I guess I stand corrected. Ryan1000 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Chanda
And gone...-- Cy10 21:04, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Nope... its still here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 06R
New disturbance here - not gonna become a depression. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

But it's going to last for a long time.-- Cy10 22:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

And it looks subtropical.-- Cy10 02:40, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression 06R
I stand corrected.-- Cy10 13:13, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low 07U
New one here - cyclone watch issued for WA. Of course that means 07U has the possibility of becoming Heidi. Some good news for the guys in WA - the GFS previously had this making landfall as a C3 (ozzie), but now only a C1 (ozzie). &mdash;13R.KIEWII 11:45, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Heidi
Now a TC. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 17:54, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Not sure what to expect from this other than some rainfall in northern Australia. Ryan1000 18:37, January 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Does anyone else see anything wrong with how the forecast calls for Heidi to remain a TS strength cyclone hundreds of miles inland..over desert..? Unless it explodes to a huge storm I don't see how it will even last that far inland. Yqt1001 20:21, January 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Maybe it would i don`t remember which was but it really stay as a cyclone and i think she will be stronger than a cat 1 cyclone Allanjeffs 20:24, January 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yqt, remember that some Austrailian cyclones last for a really long time inland.-- Cy10 21:03, January 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now expected to become a C2 cyclone. -- Cy10 03:10, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now a Cat 2. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 07:13, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

I knew this was going to be stronger than anticipated it Allanjeffs 12:46, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

It won't get stronger before landfall. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  13:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes Cyclone10, they last long overland because of their size, but Heidi is very tiny. Yqt1001 13:23, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * @Yqt:Australia may be the world's driest continent, but as dry as they are, they also see rainfall in their rainy season which is heavy enough to sometimes cause floods. There may not be as much water on land as there is out at sea, but the water on the ground during floods or heavy rainfall can be used as a partial fuel for tropical storms, even though it isn't as much as out to sea, it can keep them alive for some time inland. Some storms in the Australian region even form over land. Their proxmitity to high SST's offshore can also have an impact on their intensity just inland or just offshore. Though I personally don't think Heidi will last that long inland, it could emerge off of Australia again. Ryan1000 21:03, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Last advisory by JTWC since it made landfall.-- Cy10 21:04, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Made landfall with 10-min winds of 70mph. JTWC said 1-min of 50mph? Anyways, interesting fact Ryan. Yqt1001 22:39, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * The Australian scale uses strongest km/hr gusts, but that's still rather odd... Ryan1000 23:45, January 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now down to C1.-- Cy10 02:18, January 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * As said earlier, Heidi's not done with us yet. If you look at the sattelite imagery, she's actually staying intact rather nicely over land. There is a possibility it could emerge off of Australia again, but hopefully flooding won't be that bad, if any. Ryan1000 14:59, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Low Heidi
Down to a tropical low, but as Ryan said, this storm is staying intact over land. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:03, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

It looks like we are going to be seeing another Tropical Low forming just about where Heidi formed, and will move west into the SWIO. It was first mentioned in the TWO at 4AM. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:23, January 12, 2012 (UTC)

So if it develop in a cyclone would be Iggy right? weird name Allanjeffs 01:48, January 13, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 03F
Here it is.-- Cy10 23:17, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

This storm is already the strongest storm of the 2011-12 SPAC cyclone season. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:26, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 03F
Gone. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F
No THIS is the strongest storm of the season so far. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

...by 1 mbar..-- Cy10 00:42, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Wow! The SPAC has just blown up! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  01:41, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 04F
Done now. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:44, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Big fail.-- Cy10 00:00, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah i can`t argue with this one btw this are depressions? or just like low medium high the types of classifications we use in the Atlantic?Allanjeffs 04:50, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 05F
New one here. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 23:38, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Each disturbance surpassing the other by a couple of millibar when is the good action start on this season?Allanjeffs 01:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

04F and 05F are now tying for the strongest storm of the season. But remember.. this is only January. We still have a lot more storms to come. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 10:46, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, February is the peak of the SHem season, and their March is like our October, so that bears watching too. Right now, this is the equivalent of the SHem's August. They're just getting warmed up. Ryan1000 18:58, January 9, 2012 (UTC)

Does this disturbance even exist now ? Allanjeffs 03:49, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of 05F
Gone.-- Cy10 03:51, January 11, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: -- Cy10 21:07, January 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?
 * Heidi - ?

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?
 * 3) Heidi - TBA - Still Active

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)

Time for mine.


 * 1) Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail
 * 2) Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season
 * 3) Heidi: 0% - Currently threatening WA

&mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:45, January 10, 2012 (UTC)

My turn


 * 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ?


 * 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going


 * 3Heidi? like this nameTBA