Forum:2011 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome
Because this is the first basin to have anything this year, here's to a fine start to this forum! Ryan1000 23:15, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Wilma
New storm out there. It isn't named yet, but it's forecast to become Wilma by later today or tomorrow. Forecast to round the Samoan Islands and become a category one while heading southward out to sea. Ryan1000 14:30, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now it's Wilma. Forecast to soak up Samoa and become a category one while heading out to sea. I'll return if any unexpected things happen with this thing. Ryan1000 17:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)

Eh, nothing unexpected, just about to turn south past the islands and head out to sea as a category one. Ryan1000 13:50, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Whoops, it suddenly jumped up to a cat. 2, the same general strength as Zelia. It's heading for New Zeland, their second hit in a season. It also smacked Tonga pretty good, and delayed a vacation from Zeland's prime minister there. Ryan1000 20:37, January 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoop! Category 4 storm 135 mph and 940 mbars. Wilma coud now thrash New Zeland even more than she previously could have. Ryan1000 21:16, January 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Aaaand it's gone, or just about is, but it could still cause some flooding in New Zeland. Ryan1000 20:38, January 28, 2011 (UTC)

Now its gone. Yqt1001 18:04, January 29, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Zaka
Just numbered a short while back. I haven't a current track on this storm or intensity yet, but it could become Zaka pretty soon. The South Pacific is really rollin on this year; this is their 4th storm in less than a month, but the SWIO and AUS regions are quite far behind thus far. They should be much more active than where they are now. Ryan1000 14:30, February 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's now a depression. It's near the Tonga area and appears to be heading for the American Samoa and the Cook Islands, but who knows how strong it will be when it gets there... Hopefully it won't pull an Olaf or a Percy, both of which were category 5 cyclones from the 2005 season. Ryan1000 13:46, February 6, 2011 (UTC)

And now it's Zaka. It appears it was heading west-southwest all this time... And it probrably won't become much of anything, but it may turn further south pretty soon and be New Zeland's 3rd hit in less than a month. It's several hundred miles south-southeast of Fiji, and it's heading west-southwest slowly. It's currently a category one on the Australian scale, and it isn't expected to become a Yasi-like storm by any means. Ryan1000 16:19, February 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * Has this forum already lost all of it's activity or is just that no one is interested in it now? Anyhow, Zaka is now a two on the AUS scale, and it's forecast to hit NZ soon. It's their third hit in a year, but none of the storms have severely affected New Zeland... Cyclone Bola in March of '88 on the other hand, did. Ryan1000 21:40, February 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Probably lost interest, Yasi was pretty exciting, Zaka, not really. Anyways Zaka is gone now. Yqt1001 02:02, February 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, I guess so. Zaka is pretty much dead, but the only basin that's actually alive is this one... Even though the ATL has a long ways to go, we could pay attention here for the time being, so to speak. If you want to make some retirement predictions like I did at the bottom of this page, feel free to do so. Ryan1000 20:48, February 9, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12F
Now we're kickin' into some gear again. This little guy is in the South Pacific, having moved out of Australia. Ryan1000 21:03, March 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ah, it's probrably not worth paying attention to, since it's probrably gonna die out soon, or not affect land altogether. Ryan1000 14:26, March 12, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Anthony
Currently a TS, but Anthony could roll towards Australia by tommorow or Tuesday. I don't know if anyone will pay attention here other than me, but because the southern hemisphere is the only basin that's spitting out storms, for now, we should pay attention to this basin. Ryan1000 13:50, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Aaaand it's gone... Ryan1000 20:38, January 25, 2011 (UTC)

...Or is it? Apparently Anthony unexpectedly came back to us today, and it's now forecast to make a landfall on Western Australia. However, because it's only a TS, it probrably won't be so bad for the Area around Insfail or Townsville... Ryan1000 00:01, January 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Aaaand now it made landfall. It should go away by tomorrow. Ryan1000 14:53, January 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Fully gone now. Yqt1001 18:00, January 31, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Carlos
Well, two new names have sprung up. Currently not doing much but giving Darwin a bit of a soaking. HurricaneFiona 17:35, February 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...did this storm get named over land? Almost looks like it! Not a usual occurrence. Yqt1001 20:40, February 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not a usual occurrence? Please... there have been several storms that have formed over land or close to land in the Australian Region. However, the continent of Australia is still the world's driest because in the Summer(our summer in the NHem), it's a helluva lot drier than it is rainy in their summer. Laurence of 2009 formed very close to land as a depression, but it wasn't so good when it hit the western end of Australia after surviving the passage. Darwin got soaked up by Carlos, but they have gone through much, much worse than this(Tracy). Also, not to get too off-topic; I made a new section in both of the betting pools two days ago... Ryan1000 02:30, February 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ok fine...you caught me talking out of my ass again. 2 out of 2...good for you! :P Maybe I should watch a few more SHem seasons before I try to talk using my limited knowledge again. Yqt1001 04:08, February 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * I get these wrong too... When I(or others) make assumptions for storms the instant they form, the forecasts are often wrong within a very short time(especially here and the EPac). Ului in 2010 was initially forecast to become a 1 and I thought that too, but next thing I see, 3 days from then, comes a category 5 in the forecast. Well, anyhow, Carlos's pretty much long gone now. I don't like to make assumptions on SHem storms as soon as they form, because storms there are really small, and the forecasts can be off in a very very short time frame. Same can happen with Atlantic/EPac storms(Rick,Celia,Kenna, ect). Sorry, I don't believe I should have said that, it was kinda rude to say to a newbie like you...Ryan1000 16:54, February 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * I've been welcomed ruder before. (well actually, this forum I got welcomed pretty well) And plus you've been ruder to me before. (Bianca, now I was really embarrassed there) :P Yqt1001 22:49, February 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, that was just breaking my own promise from 2010... I said in the AHS of that year I wouldn't bustcast about another season again. When the SHem had just 3 storms in the first two weeks, I think it'll be dead and 4 weeks later, another ~7-8 storms pop up, and what do ya know? I have the last laugh. March and April are some of the most dangerous months in the SHem basin... several of the strongest, costliest, and deadliest cyclones have formed in that time period such as Mahina (1899), Larry (2006), Monica (2006), Glenda (2006), Hudah (2000), Percy (2005) and this time of year is also pretty bad too, like Ron and Susan (1998), Heta (2004), Olaf (2005), Zoe (2002), ect. Yasi was bad enough, but some of Australia's strongest and most destructive cyclones have formed after this date. If Queensland gets another Yasi-like storm, or if Darwin, Brisbane or any other big AUS cities get hit, then the SHem could be costlier than the NHem AHS this year, if a weak El-Niño event develops like forecast, and by chance, we get another lucky year. I'm not so surprised, the AUS region is forecast to get 17 storms in 2011, which could be one of the most, if not THE most active season on record here. Ryan1000 02:04, February 18, 2011 (UTC)

Carlos is gone now. Yqt1001 23:06, February 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...or maybe not. Reappeared on Wunderground, expected to reach cat 1 strength before going out to sea. Yqt1001 00:38, February 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Category 1 hurricane now! Yqt1001 21:58, February 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...Aaaand it's heading out to sea. It hit Australia a second time earlier as a strong TS. However, Carlos probrably won't do anything more from where it is now, i'm thinking. Ryan1000 23:03, February 24, 2011 (UTC)

And it is gone now. Yqt1001 01:53, February 26, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Dianne
Huh. This one's expected reach major cyclone status, while moving towards Western Australia. Not good news. HurricaneFiona 17:35, February 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Major on the Aus scale? Looking like only a cat 1 to me. Never stopped Yasi and Bingizi from becoming majors though. (At the start they were only expected to reach cat 1 only) Yqt1001 20:42, February 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Dianne appears to be heading in the same direction as Bianca had; I don't think it will unexpectedly become a 4, but as Bianca showed us, that is never out of the question. The only difference(and problem) with Dianne is it will try to hug the coast more than Bianca did and could have a much better chance of being severe for the Perth area. This one definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 02:30, February 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Also, another weird thing about Dianne is it technically came before Carlos. This is true because apparently both storms were active at the same time as depressions, but Dianne became a TS before Carlos did, although Carlos formed before Dianne while it was a depression. Weird; same thing happened with Humberto and Ingrid of 2007. Ryan1000 22:13, February 17, 2011 (UTC)

There is no way this storm is peaking at cat 1. Heading into an area with very low shear and very warm water very rarely means cat 1. Amazingly similar to when Bianca passed by. Yqt1001 22:45, February 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not exactly saying it won't hit 4 unexpectedly like Bianca as well... Am I right or not? Well, Sh!t this thing could be worse than her... As I mentioned, it'll try to hug the coast more than Bianca, so the effects will be felt much closer to land. Hopefully Dianne won't renact what Bianca did, but instead be a 4 when it barrels past the coast and a 2 or so at it's landfall... Ryan1000 01:41, February 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I might be a newbie, but I think I have to get some credit for forecasting something prior to the forecasters. Dianne is now a cat 1 expected to be a cat 3. :D Now whether she actually becomes a cat 3 or not, I wont know for sure, but I hope so! Yqt1001 23:08, February 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * It appears Bianca and Dianne are like twin sisters; Dianne is following the same track, taking the same intensity, and is having the same results of impact of Bianca, i'm thinking. I do not know if we will have a category 4 out of Diane, but given the shear and the warm waters, that definitely isn't out of the question... Stay tuned. I think Perth just got another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 13:05, February 19, 2011 (UTC)

Well, now cat. 2, not expected to reach 3. Now heading away from the coast too. Yqt1001 16:50, February 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back down to cat 1...seems my predictions of it peaking at above cat 1 was right atleast. :) (good reason for keeping forecasts so undetailed, your almost always right!) Yqt1001 05:40, February 20, 2011 (UTC)

It's heading further out to sea than Bianca did, but it probrably won't hit 4 as of now, because given the track and shear and cooler waters it's running into, it probrably won't get past where it is now, or at the least hit a minimal cat. 3, no more or less. Ryan1000 15:07, February 20, 2011 (UTC)

Dianne is gone. Yqt1001 15:09, February 22, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Low 18U
Yes, yet another one is forming off Australia. This one is following up behind Carlos, but I don't know what the country is in store for from this one(Future Errol). Ryan1000 15:23, February 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ah, no problems, last advisory issued by BoM. It appears Errol will have to wait. Ryan1000 01:07, March 1, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Bingiza
It's about f'ing time! The SWIO is absurdly behind this year, and because it's usually the most active basin in the entire SHem, with 10 storms a year, vs the 7 in Australia and 9 in the SPac, the SHem overall will be below average should this keep up. This might mark near-record inactivity if this holds for this basin... Anyhow, this thing is currently a TS threatening upper Madagascar. And we all know how Madagascar is for TC's(Gafilo of 2004). This thing may be intersting to watch for now. Ryan1000 21:16, February 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * About time! Currently forecasted to be a cat 2, on saturday. Forecasted to stall until then. Yqt1001 00:02, February 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * The problem with stallers like Bingiza is they have a lot of time to strengthen. If it stalls long enough, it may even become a 4 or 5 by next week, and that won't be good at all for Madagascar. Even if it somehow turns out to sea, then Marturius and Reunión have a big storm heading towards them. Stay tuned on this one. --Ryan1000 17:15, February 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * The shear in the area it is in, is quite a bit high, I'm surprised it even formed. Not looking to good for a huge cyclone to emerge. And now its not even forecasted to become a cat 2, however Madagascar isnt the best place for landfalls, so it really doesnt matter. Yqt1001 20:37, February 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Or it might not even survive to get to Madagascar at all. Even so, as I mentioned, the SWIO is really dead this year; wouldn't be surprised if this turns out to be their version of 1914's AHS. This year has had a slow kickoff, but what the pacific turns out to be will determine how quiet or active worldwide we will be in 2011. We'll just have to wait and see. Ryan1000 23:58, February 10, 2011 (UTC)

Well, still a tropical storm, expected to make landfall as a category 1 at landfall in a couple days..but this storm is HUUUUGE, its already touching the coast of Madagascar, and at landfall at its current size half the island will be affected. Yqt1001 14:19, February 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * Madagascar is not a happy place for tropical cyclone landfalls at all... Cyclone Ivan 3 years ago smashed the upper coast of the country in February 2008, killing 93 and doing several million dollars in damages. Ivan was wrecked up by Madagascar and died in the Mozambique Channel the day after it's landfall. However, sometimes storms do survive the passage and hit mainland Africa... Cyclone Eline in 2000 did just that. It killed several people in Madagascar when it struck as a category one, but it somehow managed to survive the passage over the country and rapidly strengthened in the Mozambique Channel and then hit Mozambique as a powerful category 4 storm, killing over 1,000 people and causing tremendous damage. Cyclone Hudah had been another long-lived and powerful cyclone that rampaged across the SWIO a month after Eline, and it hit Madagascar as a strong three and Mozambique as a powerful 1. The combination of those two almost completly destroyed the fragile economies of those two countries in Southern Africa. Cyclone Bingiza is a very big storm, and big storms that strike mountanous areas have been very destructive and deadly. Tropical Storm Bilis in the 2006 PTS was a large and weak tropical storm that hit Taiwan and mainland China, causing over 600 deaths and up to 5 billion in damages. The last Super Typhoon Bilis in 2000 was a category 5 that hit the same general area, but it wasn't as big and slow-moving as the 2006 tropical storm, and therefore it's damage and death toll was much, much lower. Hopefully Madagascar can get everyone out of harm's way from this big storm. It'll be coming in by say, Monday or Tuesday, but the enormus size of this thing won't really make a difference from the impact from flash floods and mudslides it'll cause beforehand. Ryan1000 17:30, February 12, 2011 (UTC)

Well, jumped up to a cat 2. No surprise, there isn't much shear anymore (and isn't much in the direction the storm is going). This storm screams "DEADLY", the outer rainband is already hitting Madagascar, and at the speed it is going the eye wont even get to land for a few days! And as if 55mph winds were bad enough for Madagascar, now they are up to 95mph! This storm is getting worse by the hour, I am fully worried about the effects of this storm. Yqt1001 23:51, February 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * That's what I had mentioned above, Yqt. If it slows down fast enough, and picks up steam fast enough, then Bingiza could become a 4 or 5 when it hits the coast. That still isn't out of the question, but it doesn't matter how strong it is when it hits; Bingiza is going to dump several inches of rain and cause lots of damage from flash floods and mudslides either way. At the speed this thing is going, it could leave the upper coast of Madagascar in ruins by tomorrow or Monday. Also, because it's very big, there is an outside chance that it could cross into the Mozambique Channel and reorganize there before hitting mainland Africa as a powerful cyclone. Cyclone Jokwe in 2008 was the last cyclone to hit mainland Africa, but it was only over land for a short time, clipping the upper-east part of Mozambique. Cyclone Favio in 2007 was the last cyclone to hit Mozambique and move inland. It hit on the exact same day Eline did, but the small size and rapid movement of that storm limited it's damages and deaths there. I hope that Madagascar has learned from storms in the past, and their emergency officials get everyone out of harm's way. Ryan1000 01:37, February 13, 2011 (UTC)

Now 4th major of the year. The storm doesn't look to strong as it has no eye...but its still growing, rapidly. If it were to hit in the center only a few areas wouldn't be affected. Looking even worse for people of Madagascar.. Eye wall looks close to hitting land, its moving so slow that its going to dissipate over Madagascar not even close to the other side. Not looking good at all... Yqt1001 14:55, February 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bingiza is organizing very rapidly... It hasn't hit land, and much of the storm is still over very warm water. A category 5 may be a bit too far ahead of this thing, but a 135-140 mph cat. 4 landfall still isn't out of the question... The outer rainbands have struck Madagascar for at least two days; I'm surprised no reports from flash floods or mudslides or deaths are out yet. Bingiza will hit soon, and when it does, it will pretty much flood up the entire northern coast of the country. I think it will probrably not survive Madagascar, but that doesn't really matter knowing how bad it could(or will) be. Ryan1000 17:41, February 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * Whoop! Bingiza suddenly picked up speed today and hit Madagascar as a powerful cat 3, a lot sooner than I expected. Flooding won't be as bad as otherwise could be, but that won't hinder it from causing damage. Hopefully it won't survive the passage over Madagascar and enter the Mozambique Channel and go onto Mozambique... Ryan1000 21:37, February 14, 2011 (UTC)

Well after making its second landfall, it has finally died over Madagascar. Yqt1001 23:10, February 18, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Cherono
Hello? Is anyone still there? Anyway, Cherono's formed. Activity in the SWIO, almost unheard of isn't it? In fact, the whole southern hemisphere has been quiet for a while now, aside from that freak of nature called Arani. Isn't their March meant to be like our September? HurricaneFiona 16:28, March 18, 2011 (UTC) (Ack, edited for a stupid spelling error -_- HurricaneFiona 16:31, March 18, 2011 (UTC))
 * Still here, it has been really quiet these days hasn't it. Anyways, nice to see some activity, looking like we will see this reaching category 1 hurricane status before dissipating. Also shouldn't Arani have been posted in this section? Yqt1001 17:17, March 18, 2011 (UTC)

Well, I think that Arani still counts as an Atlantic storm. I define the south Atlantic as part of the Atlantic, but If you would think otherwise, w.e. And this is actually very unusual for the SWIO; this basin is supposed to be the most active in the entire SHem annualy. However, knowing how quiet we have been here, it is likely signifying the end of last year's La Niña event and will likely mark a near to below average season in the Atlantic, as will it strengthen the Pacific. Anyhow, Cherono is heading for sea, but it could soak Marturius and Reunion with a bunch of rain, while on it's way out to sea, as did Gamede in 2007, which soaked the sh!t out of both islands(18 feet of rain, to be precise), but it all really depends on how big it gets at that time. Ryan1000 20:35, March 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Chernono is expected to dissipate in a few hours. Yqt1001 20:00, March 19, 2011 (UTC)

Ah, not even a hurricane-strength storm. It appears the SWIO is record-dead in this year, and I can't really help but say, wow... The entire southern hemisphere season of 2010-11 officially ends at April 30, but if a storm still forms between then and June 30, 2011, it still counts as part of the 2010-11 season. The SWIO is gonna have to go nuts in April to get to average standards there. Now could be the time to kick our "Retirements at a glance" section into some gear... Ryan1000 22:44, March 19, 2011 (UTC)

Reformed to a "Dépression tropicale" (TD in French). Yqt1001 19:24, March 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * O_O? Did I miss something? Ah, it's still heading out to sea anyways... Ryan1000 20:03, March 21, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
So far, what are your retirement predictions for the SHem? Here are mine(including last-year's storms)

Australia: South Pacific: These are my calls on the retirements thus far; of course, the SWIO never has "retired names", so they're excluded here. Ryan1000 21:32, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Anggrek - 0% - What did this thing do again?
 * Tasha - 30% - Australia is pretty generous when it comes to retirements, but they might be overexaggerating with this one.
 * Vince - 0% - See Anggrek.
 * Zelia - 10% - Knocked up New Zeland a bit, but they have gone through much worse.
 * Anthony - 10% - Washed up Queensland, but was largely unnotable.
 * Bianca - 1% - First major of the year, but other than threatening Perth and exploding over unfavorable conditions like Julia, nothing much came from this one.
 * Carlos - 10% - Like Anthony, Darwin has gone through much worse than Carlos.
 * Dianne - 1% - See Bianca.
 * Vania - 5% - Soaked up New Caledonia, but that island has gone through so much worse.
 * Wilma - 5% - It caused some damage on the American Samoa and later hit New Zeland after Zelia, but it wasn't so bad...
 * Yasi - 100% - Crushed northern Queensland, billions of dollars in damages, and the costliest cyclone in AUS history; this name just isn't gonna stick around for more.
 * Zaka - 5% - The final storm of the trio of New Zeland hits, but, like Zelia and Wilma, nothing much came from this one.
 * Atu - 10% - Impacted the Solomon Islands, but that archapelago has seen worse than Atu.
 * Bune - 0% - Fishie.