Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season/Hermine

AOI:Southeast of Fiona
This one just got added on the two-day outlook and is southeast of Fiona, the wave that will follow Fiona is behind this one. Also at 0/20 but this wave is expected to head farther west towards the Antilles, we might see Gaston from this and Hermine from the above storm, or vise versa. The Atlantic season is really heating up. Ryan1000 19:05, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yep, it's beginning to heat up. Hopefully none of these AOIs end up being devastating hurricanes in the long run. With the warm waters and favorable conditions in the Caribbean though, it's possible they could be destructive. Should gradually develop and become either Gaston or Hermine next week or so.  St  eve  82  0   22:04, August 18, 2016 (UTC)


 * This was the wave Euro was developing into a hurricane entering the Caribbean and suddenly dropped it. Now all the other models have latch into developing this. This thing have an almost perfect environment as shear is to be low for the next five to seven days. This might be our first major of the season now that Fiona have clear the sal of the way. Models are making it a hurricane before a landfall in PR. The one over Africa might had more potential if it was further south. It will go straight to Sal that its west of Africa if it can overcome that it might have potentital to be a weak hurricane. interesting days ahead for sure. Allanjeffs 23:38, August 18, 2016 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Now an invest. 10/40. This looks likely to become Gaston or Hermine depending on which wave develops first. GFS takes this to near category 5 strength in the western Atlantic in the long range, but that is still 10 days out. This could be a significant land threat in the long-term, especially if the other wave does not develop. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 00:13, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh wow,this invest wasn't even here this morning and now it's 10/40. Maybe this wave will end up breaking the streak of no landfalling major hurricanes in the US, but hopefully this does not happen... ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 00:16, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this storm is already looking to be a threatening storm to the Lessers, the models have picked up on this again but are much more aggressive with it when it reaches the Caribbean. This could easily go on to be the first MH of the season. Ryan1000 02:51, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * WHOA! The latest GFS takes this down to 907 mbar, which is category 5 strength! This is definitely an invest to watch in the long term... ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 04:49, August 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now the GFS says this will be a 904 millibar gargantuan. Then, it will slam New England as a 935-930 millibar hurricane. But at 200-300 hours out, i'd say that would be too good to be true... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 12:31, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm a bit surprised at how bullish the GFS is with this one, a major hurricane is looking increasingly likely and probably will happen when it passes through the Lessers, but one of the top 10 strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record? 904 mbars is pushing it pretty far. Regardless, the GFS takes it right over the Barbados and moving northwest over Puerto Rico as a very strong hurricane in the coming days, that'll probably be a bad enough storm as it is. If that's not enough, it's also now forecast to move over Hispaniola, Cuba, and eventually curve around to hit the Florida Panhandle as a very strong hurricane 288 hours out. There's a lot of uncertainty to this forecast by that point, but either way this storm could easily surpass Earl a week from now or more as the most notable storm of the season. There's also two more storms GFS shows behind 99L and the wave behind Fiona, and if they form then we'll be at Ian and Julia by September, that's pretty far down the list. Ryan1000 17:49, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still 10/50. I'm not sure whether this is going to develop, since the ECMWF shows virtually no development at all. On the flip side, on the last 3 out of 4 runs, GFS has made this a category 5 hurricane that could be a threat to Florida and the U.S. East Coast. This system has a LOT of uncertainty. Even though it doesn't look good right now, it may improve its looks with time. This may even be Hermine if the above AOI develops first. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 00:28, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * This could be either name, but I think this one might develop first. This is looking like a potential threat over the long run to the U.S., especially if the absolutely threatening GFS model pans out. :( If you want to be strong, 99L, steer clear of land! ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me

18Z GFS forecast shifted the 276 hour-out track from this thing all the way from hitting the Florida Panhandle to Savannah, Georgia. It'll probably take its time to develop into something no matter where it goes, but after it gets through the dry air that's in it's way right now, it's got an oasis to strengthen within. I'm not inclined to buy the Euro's solution at all, they don't even make it becoming anything, and this isn't the first time the European model has been out-performed by the GFS...but in cases where the Euro did do much better than the GFS, it was for historic storms like Sandy. Though I believe the GFS is over-doing this thing intensity-wise, it's better to do that than forecast nothing whatsoever. Ryan1000 03:09, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Latest run of the GFS has backed off on this significantly in the Caribbean, they now expect it to move near Hispaniola and nearly die but move on to eventually hit Central Louisiana as a sizeable storm. Euro still shows nothing, but GFS has constantly been going back and forth with this thing. Ryan1000 11:00, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * 99L certainly has a rough road ahead of it the next few days. It depends on how soon it can organize that will likely determine where it goes. Right now, 99L could end up almost anywhere, which is not good considering it could be a major hurricane threat. Hopefully if it landfalls as a major it avoids major cities. Or it could just not develop like the Euro says and this is just a false alarm. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:20, August 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 10/60 now, but it still has a while to go before it will become anything. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 17:47, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * It might develop by the time we see it reach the Lesser Antillies in about 4 days' time. I see this being Hermine, because the other AOI is looking better to develop in the short term. I just hope it isn't a major threat. This could be scary. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  19:26, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm currently not sold on 99L's development, since the latest GFS only shows this as a TS and the EURO doesn't show any development at all. Either way it will have to be watched. If this did somehow develop it would probably be Hermine. ~BOB Page   Wall   Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 20:41, August 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * This may not develop before the system behind it, nor may it become as powerful, but it poses a bigger threat to the U.S. in the long run. With the way things are going right now, we will probably see Hermine from this system and Gaston from the system behind it. Ryan1000 00:25, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now the GFS just dropped it. They have it not really developing into anything. Not even a tropical depression. Looks like Hermine will have to wait... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:53, August 21, 2016 (UTC)

But maybe not? As the circulation becomes better defined and shower activity develops near the center, the NHC has raised the chances to 30/60. Also, conditions are forecast to be favourable for further development. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:11, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 20/50. Fiona's outflow is becoming a problem for 99L, and it's actually become less organized. It still has a pretty good shot at developing though in the future, although some models do not develop it. Due to the land threat, it's probably best if it can't become a strong hurricane. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:25, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Looks like the Euro has won again if this is a continuing trend with 99L... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 14:34, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Not really actually the Euro have flipped sides along all the other models and develop 99L especially in the vicinity of the Bahamas. 99L now has unanimous support from every model. GFS,Euro,Ukmet, Navgm and Cmc. This will probably be Hermine by Friday or Saturday.Allanjeffs 21:21, August 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's very possible it could be Hermine but hopefully only a TS. The 5 days outlook is going down and it is a land threat. I do not want a destructive hurricane, so it will be best for 99L to remain weaker. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:24, August 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, the GFS and Euro don't make it very strong when it reaches the Bahamas, it may be a minimal to moderate hurricane at best when it nears or makes landfall in southern Florida or somewhere up to nortn Carolina, or it could turn out to sea before doing anything. They're much more aggressive with 90L in the long term than with this one, and although 90L (Gaston) won't hit the U.S, mainland, it could be a big threat to Bermuda or to Newfoundland in the long run. Ryan1000 01:41, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now that EURO among other models mostly all develop this near the Bahamas, I think this could be Hermine after all, but it likely won't be a major hurricane. 99L does look a little better tonight as it is starting to fire some more convection. I think this could develop about a week from now when it reaches the warm waters near the Bahamas, and after that, there is still a lot of uncertainty where it could track. It could go out to sea, be a coast-hugger like Arthur in 2014, or it could slam into Florida/GOM like the EURO suggests. And that is if it even develops. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 02:49, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am sure we might see something come out of 99L. It has plenty of time to develop, and conditions are forecast to be favorable late this week. Again, I predict we may possibly only see a TS from this. Although I would not rule out a hurricane. I hope it is not too strong because of possible future interaction with land, and if it did become strong, the areas might see lots of destruction. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:59, August 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * The 06z run of the GFS today eventually takes this into the GoM, but as a weak storm. It could strengthen a lot from there on out, but they're not forecasting that far in advance, and a lot of things could change by the time it makes it to the Bahamas. Ryan1000 10:43, August 22, 2016 (UTC)


 * The Euro finally caves to the Gfs previous solution and show a major cat 4 making landfall in the Florida Panhandle. If the run verifies it will be the first major hurricane to impact the U.S since 2005. I hope this was an outlier and dont show anymore solution like this one. The thing is the UKMET and the CMC are also showing 99L entering the gulf. Louisiana and other gulf states should be careful of this system. NHC recon is flying tomorrow into the system.Allanjeffs 22:14, August 22, 2016 (UTC)

Models sure are starting to show doom with this system, an unfortunate change from yesterday. It's now at 30/60 although it isn't really organizing yet. The luck may be running out in terms of the US major hurricane drought. 99L's future isn't written in stone yet, but this is not looking good. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:37, August 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'm rather surprised the Euro took the agressive bandwagon with this one on the 12z run Monday, making it a very strong 950 mbar major hurricane hitting the big bend of Florida while the GFS hardly develops this thing at all by now. Both models are agressive with Gaston, though he's not directly heading for land, minus maybe Bermuda or Newfoundland, though even those are looking less and less likely. Both of them also forecast another storm that could cross the northern Cape Verde Islands as a hurricane in 240 hours or so, and another fishspinning hurricane below that one. All of this is a long ways ahead, but if they do materialize we'll be at our 10th storm (Julia) by September 10th or so. Would be pretty impressive to see. Ryan1000 02:48, August 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * ECMWF has this making two hurricane-force landfalls in Florida, and HWRF makes this a 940 mb hurricane approaching Florida in around 5 days. However some other models like the GFS and CMC don't show much development, if any. But seeing as the former are getting increasingly reliable, I'd like Florida to prepare well for a break in the major hurricane drought. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:53, August 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * HWRF is arguably the most reliable model in terms of short-range intensity forecasts, but I'd take long range intensity forecasts from that model with a grain of salt. The Euro makes it a 980 mbar hurricane hitting the Big Bend after hitting West Palm beach as a weaker hurricane, but not as a major on either landfall. It could be a powerful storm if it passes near the record-warm waters and more favorable conditions of the southern and Central Bahamas per Dr. Master's latest blog post, but due to it's large, broad size it likely won't explode to a major unless it heads through the Straits of Florida and into the GoM without hitting Florida's east coast, then turning back to hit the west coast. That would be a worst-case scenario and it was depicted in one of the Euro's earlier runs; hopefully that doesn't happen, but as I mentioned before, 11, let alone 8, consecutive years without a U.S. major hurricane is a record, and that streak can't go on forever. Ryan1000 14:27, August 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * The latest HWRF does not even develop this system. However, the EURO is insistent that this could be a strong hurricane in the northeast Gulf that could make landfall somewhere near Alabama/Mississippi, or maybe even the Big Bend of Florida or Louisiana. I feel like the track and strength of 99L will depend on if it manages to clear Hispaniola. If it does, this could become a very powerful Hurricane Hermine. If it does run into Hispaniola, it probably won't even develop. The GFS seems to crash this into Hispaniola. Although the EURO is generally more accurate, I'm leaning towards this crashing into Hispaniola right now because it seemed like the LLC of 99L was forming farther south than where the models initialized it. We'll probably have a better idea of where 99L's going tomorrow. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now 60/80 per latest NHC outlook. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:43, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * Air force recon managed to find tropical storm force winds in parts of the northern squalls of this thing, but the NHC says the mission is still ongiong to determine if this wave has developed a closed LLC; if it does, this'll be named Hermine immediately and will likely pass over Puerto Rico, skim northern Hispaniola, and move into the Bahamas and Florida in 3-4 days time. Ryan1000 17:07, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is getting scary. We are finally seeing 99L organize, and of course it has to be a major threat. I really hope the Lesser Antilles, Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Florida, and possibly in the distant long run, the Gulf Coast won't see much destruction. If it does end up RIing in the Gulf or even while approaching Florida, it could be devastating. :/ But if it crashes into Hispaniola, we could be saved from a potentially devastating monster. :)~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:32, August 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * There's actually double circulations associated with this Steve, one circulation is moving over Hispaniola and will probably die soon, but a second circulation is currently north of PR and will likely miss Hispaniola to the north and move into the Bahamas, this second circulation is the one that will probably become Hermine's circulation in a few days. Also the NHC takes this due west over Florida and then into the GoM, where the latest Euro run takes this up Florida's west coast into the big bend, but one of the earlier runs took this all the way to Louisiana and Texas as a major hurricane. A lot of things could change when it passes Florida. Ryan1000 05:11, August 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Chances for development have dropped from 50/80 to 40/70, and most of the thunderstorm activity has been displaced to the south of the circulation of 99L recently, over and just south of Hispaniola. This wave has had a really tough time getting its act together due to strong 15-25 knot wind shear and some dry air as it's heading WNW, but a weakness in the ridge north of the storm could cause it to turn north after it passes the western Bahamas and southern Florida and eventually parallel western Florida as indicated by the Euro. It will also slow down significantly when it reaches the northwestern Bahams and this could lead to more time for strengthening, but it's still very uncertain just how strong it will get, or where it will go past south Florida. Ryan1000 20:51, August 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting 99L to develop anymore. It looks horrible and the EURO has lost confidence on its most recent run. Strange things have happened, but I have to say this 99L is the most frustrating, annoying, complicated, long-lived invest I have ever tracked. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * I actually agree. In fact, I think this is one of the longest threads I have ever seen for a single invest. 99L was a really long-lived, complicated invest that has struggled to develop for several days. But I actually still predict it will develop into a TD by early next week when upper-level winds are anticipated to be more favorable. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:54, August 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * This invest has been very strange. I guess it just doesn't want to become anything yet. It still has a chance later on, but this is quite a long time for an invest to remain just an invest without strengthening. If it doesn't develop, that will be good for any land in it's path however. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 01:51, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * It could become something when it moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend and into next week, but 99L is so disorganized and so sheared that it's now down to only 30/60 and it's expected to miss making landfall in southern Florida and instead pass between southern Florida and Cuba. But because of that, it could miss the tail end of the front and head towards the western Gulf near Louisiana or Texas instead of recurving back to hit Florida's west coast, which means it may have much longer time over water. And the western GoM could be fairly favorable for development by then. Ryan1000 02:25, August 26, 2016 (UTC)

Now it's down to 20/60, and the recon mission to investigate this today has been cancelled. This invest has been surprisingly underwhelming, it may not even become anything at all if conditions don't lighten up in the next few days. Ryan1000 16:29, August 26, 2016 (UTC)


 * Back up to 30/60, but development isn't expected until after it enters the GoM through the straits of Florida, and even then it's not guaranteed. Ryan1000 01:42, August 27, 2016 (UTC)

99L.INVEST (Continued)
I have decided to make a new header, as it was getting harder to scroll through all of 99L's previous discussions. Ryan, I'm seeing it as 20/50... Anyway, development does not look very likely. This is seriously the longest-lived, annoying, frustrating, and complicated invest I've ever seen. I hope, FOR ONCE, it becomes something in the Gulf of Mexico! (As long as it isn't a major land threat) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:26, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * 20/40, but new convection is bursting somewhere near the center... but it keeps forming and dissipating and forming somewhere else and sometimes 2 centers develop so I have no idea where the actual center is. I'm really doubting this will actually become anything. Heck, I think 91L has a better shot at becoming Hermine! This invest is so messy, unpredictable, and annoying that the NHC must have skull fractures from their headaches caused by trying to predict this system! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 13:29, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Just wait until it's gone 6 hours from now, but right now there actually appears to be some organization with 99L. North of the east side of Cuba, there are some spiral cloud bands that have formed. We'll see if 99L actually does something this time. ~ Raindrop  (Rain rules!) 21:01, August 27, 2016 (UTC)


 * Back up to 40/50 now! This invest has had its chances go up and down constantly for the past week. The latest model runs do mostly show development, even the GFS now shows a tropical depression. I want it to either die or form, because this invest has been so long-lasting and annoying that it probably deserves its own archived section. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 00:51, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh no! The latest HWRF model is just nuts. If this model is correct, prepare to see devastation in Tampa, and the areas surrounding it. I'm eyeballing this storm extremely closely. I hope this forecast is not correct... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 02:59, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Most models develop 99L into some kind of landfalling storm. The intensity is debatable though: ECMWF and HWRF both show major hurricane landfalls, while CMC shows a strong tropical storm. GFS shows just a tropical depression. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:14, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40/60. This might be Ian if 91L — now TD8 — intensifies to a TS first. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:55, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's 60/80 now. Ian/Hermine could form tomorrow. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 19:23, August 28, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
FINALLY! " Special Message from NHC Issued 28 Aug 2016 20:38 UTC  NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Nine at 5 PM EDT." ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 20:44, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * The race to Hermine just heated up... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:53, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Imo this one will be Hermine as its organizing as we speak. Td 8 might become ts Ian tomorrow morning. I am happy it finall develop two weeks of tracking this invest was enough for me. Allanjeffs 21:10, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Fortunately, it's not expected to become very strong in the GoM before it recurves back towards western Florida later this week. Gotta love how we've been discussing more about this thing when it was an invest than when it finally became something... Ryan1000 21:20, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, the NHC said that the forecast is less certain than usual and that they are being quite conservative. Jdcomix (talk) 21:34, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * FINALLY!!! This annoying thing took so long to become something... Anyway, the forecast thankfully does not predict a hurricane, which would be less threatening for the Gulf Coast. Now the race is on. Who will be Hermine first...TD 8 or 9?! The loser receives the name "Ian"! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:09, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, the intensity is a big factor, if it intensifies it's likely to be picked up and recurve towards west Florida, but if it stays weak it may head further west. The GFS and Euro both recurve it back like NHC expects as a weak TS, hopefully it does that so it doesn't get much stronger. Ryan1000 01:53, August 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * This storm could end up completely fooling the models. It seems like it really just insists on moving west no matter what models say. As Ryan said, the extra west movement could allow this to strengthen into a strong storm after all this time. The bad news is that's right before it hits land. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:25, August 29, 2016 (UTC)


 * Per latest advisory, this looks like to be strengthening to a TS first before TD8. This will be Hermine. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:16, August 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * Still a TD but I figured I'd leave this for posterity:


 * BULLETIN
 * TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
 * NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016
 * 500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016


 * ...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY...


 * :D --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:57, August 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * LOL Dylan that was hilarious - the NHC needs to watch what they're putting. :P Anyways, it is STILL not a TS. I hope it will become Hermine tonight or else the stakes are high that TD 8 could instead be Hermine. Luckily no hurricane in the forecast (as of yet). But even TS's can be at least somewhat destructive, take Allison, Debby, and much more for example. Regardless of what Nine's future name is, I hope it does not cause much impacts in the long run to Florida or anywhere else. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:42, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches just went up for portions of Florida's Gulf Coast. I don't think I've ever seen two co-existing Atlantic tropical depressions take so long to become named storms. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:03, August 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * These two depressions are sure taking their time. However, it looks like TD9 is getting closer to TS status with the latest convective burst. Both systems are taking so long to develop it's like a race between turtles... But this system still poses a threat to land, and if it finally becomes a TS next advisory it could strengthen much faster from there. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 23:45, August 30, 2016 (UTC)
 * I can't believe TD 9 isn't Hermine yet. The TD's are really taking their time and the race to become Hermine or Ian is being delayed longer and like you said, seems like a race between turtles or even snails. Northwestern Florida needs to watch out as the NHC posted a hurricane watch for the area but I don't think this will become a hurricane. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:25, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm surprised this thing is taking so long just to become a TS, it's really been struggling over the past few days with wind shear. It might become hermine soon, but even if it manages to strengthen it's going to be hitting the unpopulated big bend area of Florida. Surprisingly enough, most of the models make it stronger after it hits Florida and moves up the east coast, some even take it to New England on Labor Day as a near-major hurricane. That won't be good... Ryan1000 14:12, August 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * This thing is exploding right now. I can see it becoming a strong cat 1 to cat 2. Its finally taking advantange of its enviroment something not good for Florida. I hope they get prepare for a stronger storm. I am not sure what is happening with Recon this year. They were suppose to be in the storm and nothing.Allanjeffs 06:30, August 31, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hermine
She is finally here after two weeks of tracking it. Right now at 40mph but recon is finding a lot of 45 to 50mph winds. A minimal to mid range cat 1 hurricane is possible with this system.Allanjeffs 18:39, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * May we now present to you all after all this time of patience: Tropical Storm Hermine. Owen 18:44, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * She has really took a long time to become something. Well, Hermine is finally here at last, after 2 WEEKS of waiting. This is quite possibly the longest time I have waited for an AOI/invest to become a named storm. Hermine is threatening the Florida Panhandle right now. I'd even give it probably a 20% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall there. Residents there will have to prepare regardless of whether its a hurricane or not. And I do not want the models mentioned in Ryan's post to come true. This could be devastating if it moves up the US east coast like that and becomes a near-major or even a major. It most probably won't be this destructive, but those models gave me flashbacks to Sandy... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:36, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * It may not directly make landfall as a hurricane, but it will pass close enough to bring high surf and heavy rain and strong winds regardless. Florida is the least of our worries, both the GFS and the Euro loop this thing very slowly around or just offshore the mid-Atlantic region as a fairly strong storm later this week and into next week before moving out to sea. If it manages to become strong enough offshore and make a second landfall in the northeast, Hermine might actually have a chance of retirement down the road. Ryan1000 03:01, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hurricane Warning up for part of the NW Florida coast, NHC forecast now officially brings Hermine to minimal hurricane strength by landfall - would be the first Hurricane  Hermine ever if this verifies. Currently 50 kts/998 mbar as of the latest advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:08, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * As a lot of you may know, I live in Florida. School has been canceled for us tomorrow, and it might also be canceled on Friday. The flooding is currently pretty bad here, and the NHC now says Hermine is going to become the first hurricane to strike Florida since Wilma in 2005. Owen 04:33, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Take a look here. Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating Hermine, and from what I can tell they are seeing are winds near hurricane strength or possibly at hurricane strength already. Could we have a stronger Hurricane Hermine at landfall than we thought? It still has until Thursday night to strengthen. EDIT: I found another graphic that's telling us they are finding some hurricane-strength flight-level winds. It'll be interesting once they've gone through to see the surface winds. Owen 06:37, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Currently at 65 mph/992 mbars. Hermine could become a minimal cat 1 when it comes ashore in Florida, but as I mentioned before, Florida is the least of our concerns, the NHC does what the Euro and GFS were forecasting late in their forecast period, and expect Hermine to loop offshore the Mid-Atlantic as a powerful, albeit likely non-tropical hurricane. The Euro in particular takes it down to a 970 mbar cat 2 strength storm just offshore; it's still possible it could miss landfall, but it's something to watch out for nonetheless. Ryan1000 12:34, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

Uh, this is 140 miles from the center....we may have Hurricane Hermine.

Time: 16:06:00Z Coordinates: 26.800N 83.900W Acft. Static Air Press: 844.4 mb Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,544 m (5,066 ft) Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.2 mb (29.83 inHg) Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 179° at 75 kts (From the S at 86.3 mph) Air Temp: 15.7°C (60.3°F) Dew Pt: 15.7°C (60.3°F) '''Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 76 kts (87.5 mph)''' SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind:48 kts (55.2 mph) SFMR Rain Rate: 12 mm/hr (0.47 in/hr) Owen 16:31, September 1, 2016 (UTC)

Hurricane Hermine
First time ever Hermine reached hurricane status. Hopefully Florida is ready. Jake52 (talk) 18:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Unless Hermine somehow weakens before landfall, looks like the 11-year hurricane drought in Florida is coming to an end. Hermine is also the first hurricane in the Gulf since Ingrid in 2013. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 19:18, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Even though Florida's hurricane drought is coming to an end with Hermine, the 11-year major hurricane drought still stands, and won't be broken by this thing. Storm surge will be magnified in the big bend of Florida due to the tucked back position of the bay where Hermine is going to hit, but due to Hermine's low intensity, impacts in Florida shouldn't be too severe. Regardless of severity, there will certainly be high winds, heavy rain, and maybe even tornadoes in and around where Hermine makes landfall. The NHC makes it extratropical after leaving North Carolina sometime on Saturday, but they stall it for 2 or 3 days off of the Mid-Atlantic, which would mean a lot of high surf offshore, and Hermine could possibly recurve back west to hit new England later on. If Hermine does that, it may be a repeat of Agnes of 1972. That's not good at all, people in the northeast should be preparing for this thing right now. Ryan1000 21:23, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * In the last few frames of this loop here, it looks like Hermine is intensifying before it reaches the shore. I wouldn't rule out a Category 2, although it's doubtful. Owen 22:40, September 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * What's amazing is that this won't just be the first Florida hurricane landfall I have ever tracked, but this will also be the first Florida hurricane landfall on this entire wiki. Wow... Watch out Florida & the U.S. east coast... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:37, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * New advisory pins Hermine at 80 mph and 983 mbars, but it's just about to make landfall so I'd rule out cat 2 intensity. 85-90 is a possibility in the next advisory, maybe, but nothing more than that. Ryan1000 01:57, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is not looking good... landfall is just hours away. Like others have mentioned, it is the first hurricane landfall in Florida since Wilma 11 years ago. I personally think 80 mph will be its peak and it'll make landfall at that strength. Hopefully flooding and other things don't make Hermine destructive and deadly. I'm also worried about its future moving up the US East Coast. People from Florida and up to New England should all be ready for this storm. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:45, September 2, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hermine (2nd time)
Weakened to a tropical storm, though it still made landfall overnight as a hurricane. Ryan1000 09:05, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * The tide- and rain-enhanced flooding is just massive. Lots of trees have been downed, and more than 200 thousand households are out of power. I haven't heard of any tornadoes, but there were a few waterspouts seen offshore earlier. Fortunately there have been no fatalities yet, but this may change as Hermine wrecks the entire East Coast over the next few days. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:57, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * Spoke too soon, eh? One fatality from Hermine now, and I'm certain it will rise by looking at the effects of this storm in Florida. T  G  20:09, September 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC makes Hermine a large and slow-moving, non-tropical "hurricane" off the east coast on Monday, but even though it may remain offshore, it will be big enough to cause a lot of damage due to large waves and strong winds near the mid-Atlantic. A lot of people lost power in Florida and elsewhere as of now, and damage may be in the hundreds of millions, but unlikely billions...for the time being. Ryan1000 21:25, September 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * Interestingly, the GFS model has Hermine turn post-tropical, but eventually has it regain tropical characteristics and become a hurricane once again. NHC also noted in their discussion that it is possible Hermine could go from tropical to post-tropical back to tropical. Interesting trend. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 22:17, September 2, 2016 (UTC)`


 * After being extremely busy, I've finally been able to get back on here after basically a month.
 * And, man, things sure have gotten interesting.
 * Living over here in Florida, near the FL/AL line, I got storms associated with Hermine that dumped some rain. Hermind has, unfortunately, finally broken the 11-year hurricane streak in Florida. This, along with the fact that Hermine will meander around New England for a couple of days, makes me really uncomfortable. I know I've said it before, but I've really got a bad feeling about this season....  Leeboy100 Hello! 06:40, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Also, according to the 2 AM EDT advisory, Hermine has gone and pulled a 2008 Fay. Winds are back up to 60 mph while still overland. Leeboy100 Hello! 06:50, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine
Not exactly dead, but not tropical anymore. It is actually possible that Hermine could regain some tropical characteristics in a few days while it traverses unusually warm waters. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 15:02, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hermine seems to be delivering high gusts of wind for a storm this strength. I am currently watching The Weather Channel (have been most of the night, couldn't sleep) and Mike Seidel (who has been in quite a bit of storms, many stronger than Hermine is now) was just caught off guard and nearly got knocked onto the ground by a high gust of wind on live television, usually that only happens in a stronger tropical storm or cat. 1 (Jim Cantors getting blown around by Katrina while it was hitting Florida for example.) On a more eerie note, this is giving me flashbacks to Sandy, one can only hope that the destruction in New England won't be similar, as it has already done quite a bit in Florida.  Leeboy100 Hello! 16:50, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hermine has been quite a crazy storm. It's really packed a punch for a weak hurricane! This season is becoming quite destructive, and one can only hope Hermine stays farther away from land then predicted. We've been tracking the system that became Hermine for a long time now and it's amazing it could exist another week, only this time flooding the coast. Hermine has been an impressive storm, but sadly it's impacts on land are horrible. It's a shame storms like this have to hit land. ~ Raindrop  (Rain rules!) 17:28, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * Like with Sandy, the NHC is still issuing advisories on Hermine even though it's non-tropical because it still poses a threat to the northeast and is expected to re-intensify to hurricane strength -- while non-tropical -- tomorrow afternoon. However, they're fairly confident that Hermine will remain offshore at this point, but even if it stays offshore Hermine still poses a threat due to its large size and high surf. Ryan1000 23:28, September 3, 2016 (UTC)


 * The size of this storm really reminds me of Sandy, and it's quite eerie that its affecting the same areas Sandy devastated. T  G  10:19, September 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is a lot smaller than Sandy though, as forecast advisory 28 (the latest one) puts the gale diameter at about 350 n mi. Also, the NHC mentioned that Hermine may become a hurricane-force subtropical system when conditions favour strengthening tomorrow. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:29, September 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * It's still big enough to cause high surf to the northeast, but unlike Sandy, Hermine should stay offshore which should limit the amount of damage it causes to high surf and wind warnings. Ryan1000 20:07, September 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hermine has made the turn back to the West, but for now she's just meandering. I guess you can say she's Her-meandering. I'm sorry for the bad pun. Leeboy100 Hello! 15:01, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hermine is actually bringing rain and wind to the shore now, but the good news impacts aren't seeming all that bad. Looks like Hermine will stay post-tropical, and is not even forecast to regain hurricane-force winds anymore. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:31, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Sorry for not posting that much lately, but Hermine brings me slight flashbacks to Sandy. Luckily it is not going to be nearly as destructive. Photos show the destructive floods and damage Hermine wrought throughout Florida and the east coast. So far, it appears that Hermine has killed 4 people and caused at least 10 million in damage according to Wikipedia. Let's hope the damage and death count won't rise too much higher. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:43, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Er...... 5 deaths and at least $500 million damage now. Retirement is indeed a possibility here. ~ KN2731 {talk} 00:31, September 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * Not too likely though, considering that the U.S. didn't retire a few recent storms like Isaac and Hermine that were worse. But since we discussed so much about Hermine, I'll give Hermine her own archive. Ryan1000 21:30, September 6, 2016 (UTC)