Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season/Pre-Season-May

==AprilEdit== ===AoI: South of Central AmericaEdit=== Here's an odd one...it appears a couple models make something out of an area of storms located south of Central America. Just worth mentioning (and I have no idea how to indent new sections at all here now). Jake52 18:00, April 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * You just need to put a colin at the left end of the page before you type to indent. You can put two or three, ect to make it further right. Also, you can use the Format button list at the top of the heading screen to change the format start, rather than surround it with equals signs. Heading two makes a new section like the Welcome one above, Heading 3 is for making new invests, ect and heading 4 is used for making specific named storms. There are also many other buttons avaliable above where you type, Jake. There is a Bold button, an Italic button, a strike through button, and an Underline button. It really helps if you wish to change your format of writing with the buttons, but if you need more help, I can explain it on my talk page. Ryan1000 20:02, April 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS predicts TD, strange start to season. [1]. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Not now it won't. There is no reasonably well-defined circulation with this system, and there is a trainload of shear surrounding it. The shear doesn't usually settle down until mid-late May, June, and July, ect. Now just isn't the time. Later. ^_^ Ryan1000 16:43, April 17, 2011 (UTC)

===Aol:500 miles from nowhereEdit=== BI says "As the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season will begin in just three weeks we see the first low (yellow arrow) forming well south of Baja and too far south to generate cyclonic action. But this action and the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone will march closer to Baja until our hurricane season begins in late August. ". YE Tropical Cyclone 20:17, April 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Aaand what? I don't think I actually see anything there, just a bunch of storms with no reasonably well-organized circulation. We have another month until the lid comes off, and then... Ryan1000 15:30, April 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Poof. I can't wait till the lid comes off. YE Tropical Cyclone 02:02, April 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * One more month, and then we kick into gear. Ryan1000 18:39, April 24, 2011 (UTC)

==MayEdit== ===90.E InvestEdit=== ====AoI: Off the coast of Central AmericaEdit==== 3rd AOI of the season, no mention on Two, and not expected to do much. Well, better than nothing when all the basins except the WPAC are asleep. YE Tropical Cyclone 14:03, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, the La Nina start isn't helping us, but the WPac and the Epac should be waking up by now. The Epac usually gets their first named storm by about now or in early June, but that won't mean we might not get a late start like 2009. Ryan1000 14:54, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will get a quiet start. This year will probably turn like the 2008 Pacific hurricane season or 1996 Pacific hurricane season or 2000 Pacific hurricane season if an El Nino forms like the 2004 Pacific hurricane season and the 2002 Pacific hurricane season. YE Tropical Cyclone 16:42, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * But a quiet start doesn't exactly imply a quiet season. 2009 had the latest start to an EPac season in 40 years, and we still got to 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 majors, the most active east Pacific season since 1992. And of course, last year's Atlantic season begun in June, we didn't get to the "D" name until August 22, and we still got to 19-12-5 in the season, third most active in numbers, and second most active in 'canes. We never know what may happen. The NIO should be having their first named storm by now, but they haven't... on a worldwide standard, this year is showing signs of a 1977 as of now, but that could easily change at any time. Ryan1000 02:35, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 1977? That sounds familiar. Anyway, the AOI looks decent right now. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * It doesn't look as vicious as it did yesterday, but it has a chance of becoming Adrian... I was saying it's partly like 1977 because the SHem had one of their least active seasons in years... We have only had 15 storms so far in the SHem season, 7 from Australia, 6 from the South Pacific, and only 2 from the SWIO... Australia typically sees 7 storms a year, the SPac saw six, compared to an average of 9, and this year's SWIO season was like the 1914 Atlantic hurricane season. Only 3 storms formed in the entire season; Abele from last November, a cat. 1 that stayed at sea, Bingiza in February, a cat. 3 landfall in Madagascar, and Cherono, a dud of a TS that remained at sea. The SWIO should get 10 storms every year, but this season had only two named storms(From 2010 only); it had to be one of the SWIO's least active seasons in many, many, many years. There is a chance this invest could become Adrian, but I won't count on it... The NIO should be getting their first storm as of now, but they haven't... And the WPac had their latest start since 2006, and have two storms with the closing of May. As of now, we have had only 17 storms form worldwide. At this time in 2010, we had 20 named storms and two cat. 5's (Edzani and Ului, both from the SHem, not to mention tons more would follow), and this year thus far, we have had 17 named storms and no cat. 5's (Yasi fell just short... 155 mph) and i'm not sure what else will be in store for us... We'll have to wait and see... if the worldwide tropical cyclone basins stay at the way they are for the next month, then we may be onto yet another dead year. I won't count out on this being a 1977 yet, however. Ryan1000 12:45, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Starting to fall apart now. I did not realize that 2011 was below that below average, but keep in mind, that it's only May, usually the least active month worldwide. I wonder what basin will keep us alive this year, last year it was the ATL and in 2009 it was the EPac. YE Tropical Cyclone 14:06, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I know... May is the least active month worldwide, and if it wasn't for last year's AHS or 2009's PHS, then we would have had two consecutive 1977's. Will it be the WPac this year? We'll wait and see what happens. Ryan1000 15:25, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gotta watch out, 20% according to NHC. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 21:16, May 23, 2011 (UTC)

====90E. INVESTEdit==== Well, it's on the TWO, with a 20% chance of development. This could become Adrian, but it probably won't. And, the number of storms is low, that doesn't mean a season's effects will be light. 1977 had Anita, 1992 had Andrew, of course... I'd rather have a busy season with no landfalls, then a quiet one with one major hit. HurricaneFiona 19:35, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I miscounted a bit in the numbers I mentioned above... We have had 18 thus far this year; I forgot to include Arani. In 2010 at this time, we had 21 storms(counting Anita in the SAtl) and 30 by the end of June last year due to the activity in the EPac and Alex in the Atlantic. I think we may have an active season, but I can't gurantee it. In 1977, only 60 storms formed worldwide, Anita was the only category 5 storm recorded worldwide in 1977, and that year remains the only season the WPac didn't produce a category 5 since the sattelite era in 1960. I don't really know why Anita was retired... Mexico was hit much harder by Hurricanes Liza and Madeline of the former Pacific hurricane season and by Tara of 1961, but none of them got retired, and Anita did, while only killing 10 people, and overall damage was insevere due to the lack of buildup in the area it made landfall... 1992 had a very quiet season in the Atlantic(yet destructive due to Andrew), but worldwide, 1992 was one of the most active tropical cyclone seasons on record. The Eastern Pacific had 27 named storms in that year, 16 'canes, and 10 majors, the all-time record in that basin. The West Pacific also had tons of storms in it's season, including Gay(pronounced haye, not Gay), the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded, in additon to an all-time NIO record of 13 named storms and a category 4 which crossed in from the WPac(Forrest), and a very active SHem season too. I don't think 2011 will be inactive worldwide as a whole, but that would only happen if the Northern hemisphere this year has a similar level of activity to last year, which I won't count on as of now. Again, we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 20:14, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90e looks decent. I hope it forms. YE Tropical Cyclone 22:20, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, it look much better a few hours ago, now convection is barely persistent, the chances of formation isn't too impressive - Too much dry air. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 23:01, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%, as I expected. HurricaneSpin Talk to me 00:19, May 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Look like junk, due to dry air. Shear is moderate to high, the only reason it formed was due to 30C water. However, i due see a system left of 90E that may form. Still, worth watching. YE Tropical Cyclone 00:42, May 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The EPac can still get a late start and be very active, per what I mentioned above with 2009. 90E has failed, but don't count out on this basin just yet... It's usually the one that kicks into gear the fastest, and then slows down just as fast later. Ryan1000 00:59, May 24, 2011 (UTC)

===AOi:near MexicoEdit=== Near 0%. YE Tropical Cyclone 15:24, May 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's nothing developing. I think this year's season will turn out to be like 2009 in a way. I think we will get a slow start and when we get neutral to El-Nino conditions in August, we're gonna explode here. The chances of us getting our first storm by now are low, but I'm thinking a start around June 20 or so. Then, the conditions will settle down enough for a ton of storms here. Ryan1000 21:13, May 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I doubt we'll get a EL Nino, and it appears we are to be heading for a quiett year at this rate. The EPAc weather patterns looks like an 2008-2009 hybrid. YE Tropical Cyclone

Well, I highly doubt we will get a hyper-active AHS either. Last year was a strong La Nina, but the La Nina conditions are starting to slowly fade away. By the time the heart of the 2011 AHS comes onto us, we will likely have a neutral to weak El Nino weather pattern. There Is a chance of a 2008 or 2004-type season, but we have a near 0% chance of a 2005-like season, and I highly doubt we will get to 2010's or 1995's level of activity either. We will likely have a near normal to slightly above normal season, but this year's AHS will NOT be a 2005-type season. Even so, the Atlantic has had a little bit of thunderstorm activity rescently in the Carribean and a tiny area of thunderstorms south of North Carolina, but due to the harsh shear environment, I highly doubt either will develop at all. I'd be comparing this year to 2004 or 2008 in both basins, but we'll see. Ryan1000 20:05, May 31, 2011 (UTC)