Forum:2018-19 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season/July-February

91S.INVEST
Oh. Off-season invest according to Tropical Tidbits. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:20, July 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still present on Tropical Tidbits... what is going on here? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:11, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

90S.INVEST
Pre-season invest on Tropical Tidbits. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:01, September 14, 2018 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather 01
And we have our first SWIO storm of the season. Probably will be weak, but will it become Alcide? ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:35, September 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * This has been upgraded to a tropical storm by JTWC. MFR isn't expecting this to go past TD status though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:30, September 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 01
Now officially a depression, starting the season relatively early. This is probably an equivalent of a March NHEM storm. Anyways, expected to stay as a depression. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:24, September 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Quite surprised this developed into a TD. It's actually like a storm forming in mid-March in the Northern Hemisphere. JTWC already has it at tropical storm-equivalent intensity, and hopefully it doesn't steal a name. Expected to stay very weak. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:28, September 16, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of 01
Dead for a few days. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:56, September 18, 2018 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
New one located quite close to the Equator, code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:31, September 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Still active but unlikely to develop further. Peaked at code orange earlier, is back down to code yellow now on JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:22, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Apparently gone from JTWC but 92S returned to Tropical Tidbits' section for invests. Anonymous 2.0 (talk)

93S.INVEST
A new system in a basin that nobody cares about, up on Tropical Tidbits. Alcide anyone? The SHem will start ramping up in the coming months though as their season begins. ~  Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  💀👻  04:06, November 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:12, November 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actually I take that back. Low chance on JTWC, located almost near the TCWC Jakarta boundary. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:57, November 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Officially dead.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:11, November 04, 2018 (UTC)

Back up on JTWC with code yellow. It doesn't want to give up apparently. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:46, November 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * This just shot up to code red on JTWC, TCFA issued. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:03, November 10, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Bouchra
Named since yesterday, and this was apparently a STS earlier, but got downgraded. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:54, November 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Bouchura poses no land threat as it meanders southwest of Indonesia, but it's pretty early to see the 2nd named storm of the SWIO season by now. Ryan1000 10:03, November 12, 2018 (UTC)

Zone of Disturbed Weather Bouchra
Yeah, it's currently the equivalent of the NHem's mid-May. Pretty early to see 2 named storms here already. Anyway, TCWC Reunion is already dropping the system, but JTWC maintains this as a tropical system with even some re-intensification expected. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:06, November 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * It looks like JTWC has also issued their final advisory. Goodbye, Bouchra! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:55, November 14, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Bouchra
Remnants are back on JTWC with code yellow. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:48, November 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * This seriously doesn't want to ever give up. Code red on JTWC, TCFA issued. Also code red on TCWC Reunion's site. Also, apparently this was 04S instead of 03S, so I changed the header accordingly. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:20, November 18, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Bouchra
Regenerated. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 13:57, November 18, 2018 (UTC)

94S.INVEST
Another new one on Tropical Tidbits, located further west than 93S. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:57, November 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now medium chance per JTWC.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:12, November 04, 2018 (UTC)


 * High chance from JTWC. Could this be the second pre-season storm of the 2018-19 SWIO season, maybe even named Alcide?  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:01, November 06, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Alcide
Became Alcide about 18 hours ago. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:12, November 7, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Alcide
And Alcide is already up to TC status (mid-C1 on SSHWS). An eye is already forming on satellite imagery. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:12, November 7, 2018 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Alcide
Reached this category earlier. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:45, November 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Alcide (2nd time)
Alcide did peak as a cat 3 slightly earlier, but due to weak steering currents, the storm isn't expected to move much and will likely meander just northeast of Madagascar for a while. It might even dissipate offshore without making landfall. Ryan1000 13:39, November 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm quite surprised Alcide got this strong to be honest. Although it wasn't as early as Anais from 2012, it's still very early for an intense TC here and the equivalent of early May for the NHem. It's now a C2-strength cyclone and expected to perform a loop that will take it on a northwestern trajectory while weakening. Alcide should probably miss Madagascar altogether. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:45, November 9, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Alcide
Down to STS strength. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:00, November 10, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alcide
Post-tropical per Meteo-France, but still tropical from JTWC. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:52, November 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * No longer on JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:07, November 13, 2018 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
Surprised no one put this up yet, but a new area of disturbed weather is out there, and this could become Tropical Storm Cilida as it moves southwest, but then southeast away from Madagascar. MFR gives this a >50% chance of forming in the next few days. Ryan1000 18:00, December 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 05
Upgraded to a TD. Still not expected to affect land, outside of some swells in Madagascar. Ryan1000 05:22, December 19, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Cilida
Now named. Seems no one is interested in these two right now...unless something notable forms later. Ryan1000 14:32, December 19, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Cilida
Cilida now has 70 mph winds both 10 and 1-min. It is forecast by the JTWC to reach category 3 status on the SSHS. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:36, December 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Cilida
Up to cyclone intensity on the SWIO scale, cat 2 by JTWC at 105 mph winds. Ryan1000 17:58, December 20, 2018 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Cilida
Up to intense TC strength. Ryan1000 12:36, December 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Cilida recently surpassed Kenanga as the strongest cyclone of the season, at 130 mph and 935 mbars (by MFR), or 150 mph by JTWC. Now down to 125 mph (145 mph 1-min) and 940 mb. Ryan1000 06:48, December 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Cilida (2nd time)
Weakened to 100 mph/958 mbars. Fortunately it missed Maritius and Reunion to the northeast, and it'll probably die out as it continues to head southeast over the next few days. Ryan1000 05:01, December 23, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cilida
Died yesterday. Ryan1000 13:49, December 25, 2018 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Kenanga
Kenanga is now in this basin, as it crossed over from Australia. Still well out to sea though. Ryan1000 17:52, December 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga
Kenanga is looking much healthier right now, as it has a well-defined center and is now a 960 mbar category 2 by the JTWC (though it's 90/968 by MFR). Still well out to sea though. Ryan1000 17:32, December 18, 2018 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Kenanga
Up to category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and an Intense Tropical Cyclone on MFR. 105 mph/952 mbars. Kenanga is putting on quite the show in the SWIO right now, though it'll probably still die well out to sea sometime next week. Ryan1000 05:22, December 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * What an impressive storm. It's been quite some time since we've seen such a strong storm so early in the season. -  PORY GONAL  01:33, December 20, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga (2nd time)
Weakened to a cat 3 recently, and is no longer an intense TC, but now a regular one. Kenanga could possibly interact with Cilida as it moves southwest while Cilida moves southeast. Ryan1000 17:58, December 20, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Kenanga
Down to STS strength. Should die out sometime soon. Ryan1000 06:48, December 22, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kenanga
Dead and gone. Ryan1000 05:01, December 23, 2018 (UTC)

06S.NONAME
This system is in between Africa and Madagascar; it has a high chance of forming (JTWC). --Sandy156 (talk) 17:02, January 19, 2019 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Desmond
Now it's named Desmond. Expected to move northwest according to JTWC's latest forecast and will eventually hit Mozambique, possibly at hurricane (cyclone) intensity. Ryan1000 13:48, January 20, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall in Mozambique
Desmond has made landfall in Mozambique, but it hasn't intensified much beforehand. Still could cause flooding, but hopefully it won't be too bad for them. Ryan1000 21:35, January 21, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Desmond
Died a short while ago over Moambique. However... Ryan1000 17:35, January 23, 2019 (UTC)

93S.INVEST
...Another area of invest is in the SWIO, this is partly from the remnants of Desmond but has a separate circulation southwest of Madagascar. RSMC La Reunion gives it a slight chance to develop as it moves southeast and offshore. Ryan1000 17:35, January 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Dissipated several days ago.  Sandy 156   :)  20:03, February 2, 2019 (UTC)

98S.INVEST
Another invest in the open Indian Ocean, JTWC gives it a low chance of forming.  Sandy 156   :)  20:37, February 3, 2019 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Funani
Strengthened into a Moderate Tropical Storm, thus named Funani.  Sandy 156   :)  23:51, February 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Funani
Up to TC status, but both this and Gelena should move southeast and out to sea, though they could both become strong, category 3-4 storms on the way. Ninety-eight (talk) 23:34, February 6, 2019 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Funani
During its rapid intensification, Funani was upgraded to a intense tropical cyclone.  Sandy 156   :)  14:29, February 7, 2019 (UTC)


 * I don't think this may get much stronger than cat 4, but if it continues to RI, cat 5 is a slight possibility as it moves southeast and out to sea. Ryan1000 16:08, February 7, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Funani (2nd time)
Down to a regular TC. Ryan1000 01:01, February 9, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Funani
Dead. Ryan1000 12:03, February 10, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09
Another tropical depression formed in the Indian Ocean. Seems to be approaching the northern tip of Madagascar.  Sandy 156   :)  23:51, February 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Gelena
Up to a TC, but like Funani, will move out to sea. Ninety-eight (talk) 23:34, February 6, 2019 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelena
Up to an intense TC. May pass a somewhat close distance to Mauritius, but will likely remain north of the island overall. Ryan1000 01:01, February 9, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Gelena
Down to 70 mph/993 mbars and quickly dying out over the southern Indian Ocean. Ryan1000 01:47, February 12, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gelena
Fading away over the southeast Indian Ocean. Ryan1000 00:44, February 16, 2019 (UTC)