User:Darren23/Cyclone Warning Center/West Pacific/Ma-on/2

BULLETIN TYPHOON MA-ON ADVISORY NUMBER  2 CYCLONE WARNING CENTER WP062011 200 AM JST FRI JUL 15 2011 ...MA-ON INTENSIFIES...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM JST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION -- LOCATION...20.3N 144.0E ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM NNW OF SAIPAN NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM SSE OF TOKYO JAPAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H GUSTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 HPA...27.61 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TYPHOON WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AGRIHAN AND PAGAN ARE CANCELLED. THE TYPHOON WARNING FROM FARALON DE PAJAROS TO ASUNCION IS REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE JAPANESE VOLCANO ISLANDS IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS FROM PARALON DE PAJAROS TO ASUNCION THE JAPANESE VOLCANO ISLANDS FROM IWO TO TO MINAMI IWO JIMA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOMEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 72 HOURS.

WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN JAPAN MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

PROGNOSIS
MA-ON HAS CONTINUED STRUGGLING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS... BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT. LATEST DVORAK NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMMS ADT ARE T5.9/112 KT. ADT NUMBERS FROM SAB ARE T5.8/109 KT FOR THE JMA AND T5.9/112 KT. A CLEAR EYE SEEMS TO HAVE APPEARED AND IT SEEMS LIKE THE INNER CORE OF MA-ON HAS FINALLY CLOSED OFF AND STRENGTHENED. THUS, THE INTENSITY FOR MA-ON IS SET AT 110 KT... A MAJOR TYPHOON.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR MA-ON REMAINS THE SAME. IT IS MOVING THROUGH VERY WARM WATERS, AND STRENGTHENING... EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GOES ABOVE THE JTWC FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MA-ON IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY WITHIN 2-3 DAYS... OR SOONER IF IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES. THE TYPHOON WILL REMAIN IN WARM WATERS FOR SOME TIME, AND THEREFORE CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED IN 2-3 DAYS... OR SOONER.

THE MOTION FORECAST IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MAJOR MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STORM WILL MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF NW OR WNW UNTIL DAY 3, WHEN THE STORM CURVES TO THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTH TOWARDS THE ISLAND OF KYUSHU. IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT THE STORM MAY MOVE FURTHER EAST THAN FORECAST... BUT BECAUSE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS, THIS IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION.

INTENSITY FORECAST
INITIAL 110 KT 12H 125 KT 24H 135 KT 36H 140 KT 48H 145 KT 72H 145 KT 96H 125 KT 120H 105 KT NEARING LANDFALL

FORECASTER DARREN23