User:StevDev/Sandbox

Steve's retirements & other things

 * The "Main" tab: Lists retirement chances (plus a summary) and grades for all storms.
 * The "Summary of Colors & Explanations" tab: All the information you need about the colors and styles used, and explanations for many things to help answer any questions or solve any confusion you might have.
 * The "Replacement Names" tab: Every storm with at least a 50% chance of retirement gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that may be chosen.
 * The "Future Outlook" tab: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= To sum it up -


 * Retired, no question:
 * Almost Certainly Retired:
 * Extremely Likely Retired:
 * Very Likely Retired:
 * Likely Retired:
 * Somewhat Likely:
 * Tossup:
 * Possible:
 * Slight Chance:
 * Unlikely:
 * Highly Unlikely:
 * Almost Certainly Staying: Rita
 * Staying, no question:

Tropical depressions are only included if they are monitored by both the FMS and the JTWC, not one or the other.
 * Rita :
 * Retirement chance: 0.1% - Barely affected any land at all, although warnings were issued for Vanuatu.
 * Grading: C+ - A very early-season Severe Tropical Cyclone that didn't disappoint.

Summary of Colors & Explanations= Intensity colors (SSHWS, 1-min winds): TD/SD (≤35 mph, ≤30 knots), Weak TS/SS (40-50 mph, 35-45 knots) , Strong TS/SS (60-70 mph, 50-60 knots) , C1 (75-90 mph, 65-80 knots) , C2 (100-110 mph, 85-95 knots) , C3 (115-125 mph, 100-110 knots) , C4 (130-155 mph, 115-135 knots) , C5 (160-180 mph, 140-155 knots) , BEAST MODE (185+ mph, 160+ knots)


 * Uses the SSHWS color coding found on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones.
 * There's a few differences though.
 * A color for stronger TSs (severe TSs in the WPac) is added so they would not be lumped in the same category as the epic fail 40-45 mph TSs. This color is used in all basins even those that (in official scales) do not use this color, such as the Atlantic and EPac.
 * A completely new color is added for "BEAST MODE" cyclones that reach or exceed the incredible intensity of 185 mph (160 knots). Because I feel that the official C5 color is not strong enough to represent these storms, this color is introduced for the most powerful of the powerful storms. They might be Category 6s if the category was introduced someday.
 * This same intensity scale is used in all basins, regardless of what their official scale is. 1-min winds outside of the NHC-monitored basins come from the JTWC.
 * TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA).

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A ; 0.000...1-0.4%, 0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999...% ; <font color="#100">100% ; <font color="#000">TBA (active storms only)


 * Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color.
 * The top limit for each range is actually a bit higher than shown above (except for 99.999...%). For example, the true top limit to the 1-4% range is 4.999...%. The ranges depicted end at the whole number below to save space and avoid confusion (such as "5%" being part of two ranges at the same time if the previous range is not rounded down).
 * "50%" is the only standalone percentage outside of a range (except for 0% and 100%). This percentage means that the chances are a coin toss, there is an equal chance of it either being or not being retired. The lowest limit to the 51-54% range is actually 50.000...1%, but it is rounded to the whole number above to also save space and avoid any confusion.
 * "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired.
 * "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade.
 * "TBA" is black, and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active.
 * If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear.
 * Usually, "0%" and "100%" are approximate percentages, meaning the chances of the opposite outcome happening is so low that I won't even consider using any percentage just above the absolute so that I can save space. If the percentage is depicted as "0%", the actual percentage might be more like 0.000...millions of zeros...0.1%, or if "100%", would be more like 99.999...millions of nines...9%. If a storm with a "0%" percentage is retired, it would be like winning the lottery or even something more unlikely.
 * The only situation where the percentages are actually absolute is in basins with agencies that use retirement requirements, such as in the Philippine region (PAGASA). Their requirement of at least ₱1 billion in damages or 300 deaths for a storm ensures that any storm that meets it will be retired, and those that do not meet it are not retired for sure. No percentage between 0% and 100% is used for such a basin.
 * Tropical cyclones and their descriptions have special formatting depending on retirement chance.
 * For 0 to 24%, only the name, retirement percentage, and grade is bolded; the rest of the entry is plain-text.
 * For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded even the descriptions.
 * For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is bolded and italicized.
 * For 75% to 99.999...%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined.
 * Lastly, for storms with a 100% chance of retirement, the whole entry is BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Grading colors: SSS, SS , S , <font color="#50F">A+ , <font color="#00F">A , <font color="#05F">A- , <font color="#0AF">B+ , <font color="#0FF">B , <font color="#0FA">B- , <font color="#0F5">C+ , <font color="#0F0">C , <font color="#5F0">C- , <font color="#AF0">D+ , <font color="#FF0">D , <font color="#FA0">D- , <font color="#F50">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">🤦🏻‍♂️ , <font color="#000">TBA (active storms only)


 * Ranks a storm's performance.
 * Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, but if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance (extremely destructive/deadly), a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, nothing above "A+" will be received).
 * It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. The color scheme was also made to make sense.
 * "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and used only for non-destructive storms. They performed exceptionally well in terms of intensity, longevity, how unusual it is, topping intensity forecasts, persisting through unfavorable conditions, and maybe broke or helped to break records. The "S" grades go from bronze, to silver, and lastly to gold for the top grade of them all.
 * "S" by itself is bronze, and is the lowest ranking of the "perfection" grades used for non-destructive storms. "S" receiving storms, while really amazing, are still not amazing enough for the highest ranking honors.
 * The "SS" honor, which is silver, is the second highest of all and perhaps the highest that can ever be given out for storms that didn't break records in an absolutely unusual way. Examples of exceptional storms that can get up to here include 185+ mph fishspinners, an off-season (especially around Jan-Apr) Atlantic hurricane, or a powerful system lasting and persisting for as long as the longest-lived storms ever (John '94, San Ciriaco, Ginger, Inga, Kyle '02, Nadine '12). Certain other fighters such as Genevieve '14 or Otis '17 can also make it up to here.
 * The most superlative grade of all is...*drumroll*..."SSS"! This grade is so rare that it might only be given out once or twice a decade or even less often. It's also colored gold. They break records in an absolutely exceptional way, for example a major hurricane in the Atlantic in March, a Patricia-intensity storm (if not devastating), a storm lasting more than a month, and storms that fight through and defy forecasts so much that they might put even Genevieve '14 to shame. They truly are the storms that will forever live at the top ranks of the Hall of Fame.
 * The rest of the grades are colored based on the rainbow, from a violet/indigo "A+" to a blue "A", cyan "B", green "C", yellow "D", and red "F". Due to red being the color for danger, it's best to be used for failing grades, while green and above are colors used for things being fine (no danger at all). Yellow and orange show caution (uh oh!) and are used for grades really close to failing. Due to blue and especially violet/indigo being the furthest away from the danger colors, it's best used for the highest grades before the "S" grades which are instead colored by precious metals.
 * You can easily figure out what the grades A+ to F mean from the educational grading system. An explanation is not really needed. The only addition within this range is the grade "E", used to fill the gap between the "D" grades and the "F" failing grade. Grade "E" is usually given to moderate tropical storms that were quite pathetic but not enough to actually be failures.
 * And now, for the worst of the worst: below the letter "F", there are a few grades used to describe really pathetic failures.
 * "F-" means the storm failed so much that it deserves less than the basic "F", but still did something that would save it from lower grades. Examples: pre or post-season formation, unusual location, peaking beyond 40 mph, etc.
 * The grade "Z" comes from the fact that if you continue down the same pattern as the educational grading scale, you would continue going down the alphabet the bigger the fail is. While "A" can be used for perfection (but still less than "S"), "B" is less perfect, "C" is average, "D" is below average, "E" in my scale is a gap-filler for almost failing, and "F" is failing. The scale could continue down to "G", "H", etc. if it's an even bigger failure, all the way down to "Z" for the worst possible failures of all. Although "S" is closer to "Z" when going down the alphabet, that letter is a notable exception, and instead "T" would denote the next bigger failure below "R". To denote the worst failures of all, I am skipping straight down to the last letter, "Z", because all the in-between letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. Since "Z" is the last letter, it would be the absolute polar opposite of "A", the first letter and top grade, and thus the polar opposite of good/perfect. That letter is used for some of the worst failures (although there is an even worse grade, more on that shortly). Storms that receive this grade are short-lasting TDs, name-stealers peaking at 40 mph and lasting less than 2 days in total, and any storms that peak beyond 40 mph have to have been lasting a day or less in total or peaking way below the initial expectations (like a storm expected to become a hurricane peaks at 45 mph).
 * The absolute worst grade: These storms are so pathetic that they don't deserve even a letter. "Z" might still sound too good for them. I introduce... the "🤦🏻‍♂️" grade. Yes, it's an actual facepalm. This emoji is styled based on my gender and skin color, so if you were to borrow it and have different characteristics, I'd recommend finding a similar facepalm emoji with your own gender/skin color. This grade is rare and should stay that way. Examples of the absolutely worst failures that would actually receive this grade include: a 6-12 hour pop-up TD, a name-stealer that peaks at 40 mph and lasts a day or less in total from formation to dissipation, or any named storm that was downgraded in post-analysis to a TD or even a low (meaning they actually never deserved a name). Even some very bad TS or TD failures that pop up from time to time might not be bad enough for this grade, because they CANNOT peak beyond 40 mph nor last longer than a day.

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired, no question": 100%
 * "Almost Certainly Retired": 90-99.999...%
 * "Extremely Likely Retired": 80-89%
 * "Very Likely Retired": 70-79%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-69%
 * "Somewhat Likely": 51-59%
 * "Tossup": 50%
 * "Possible": 40-49%
 * "Slight Chance": 30-39%
 * "Unlikely": 20-29%
 * "Highly Unlikely": 10-19%
 * "Almost Certainly Staying": 0.000...1%-9%
 * "Staying, no question": 0%



Replacement Names= All storms that have (or projected to have) a 50% retirement likelihood or higher are listed here. These are my favorite 10 names for replacement.


 * N/A

Predicted final replacements to be announced after the end of the season: -

Future Outlook= Current outlook:
 * I expect that this season will end at or around Yolanda.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Vicky or Wasi, or go further to Zazu or Ana.
 * Bina or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Uesi or before is also unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see 1-2 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement. The first devastating system may occur by the end of February or March, and a potential second system could occur by the end of the season. Seeing three or more retirees this season does not seem likely.


 * Chances that Sarai will be used: <font color="#100">100% - It would be unprecedented for this to not form this year. It's likely to see Sarai by the end of 2019 or in January.
 * Chances that Tino will be used: <font color="#300">99% - Almost certain to form, as this season shouldn't be doomed to be dead. May be seen in January or February.
 * Chances that Uesi will be used: <font color="#700">90% - Unless the season is somehow doomed to be insanely inactive, Uesi is likely to come by the end of February.
 * Chances that Vicky will be used: <font color="#B00">80% - Might be seen in March according to my epic predictions
 * Chances that Wasi will be used: <font color="#F30">65% - Assuming it forms it'll be seen by April or something.
 * Chances that Yolanda will be used: <font color="#FF0">50% - If the predictions for a near-average season are correct we should end around this name. It's a tossup and might be a late-season storm by the end of April or a post-season May storm assuming my epic forecast is completely correct.
 * Chances that Zazu will be used: <font color="#6C0">37% - If we get Zazu it might be in the post-season most likely.
 * Chances that Ana will be used: <font color="#0A0">25% - Getting less likely at this point and we will most likely see this in 2020-21.
 * Chances that Bina will be used: <font color="#05A">13% - Highly doubtful we'll get down to this point. A 2020-21 storm if anything.
 * Chances that Cody will be used: <font color="#00A">5% - Um nope we won't get this far down the list unless some weird miracle happens.
 * Chances that Dovi will be used: <font color="#95A">0.1% - I would be without words if the season somehow got here by 6/30.
 * Chances that Eva or anything beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">0% - Nope

~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:05, November 30, 2019 (UTC)