Forum:2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/AUS 1

Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
New one in the AUS region, first of their season but likely not going to affect land. Ryan1000 03:14, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Currently expected to parallel the entire western Australian coast as a Category 1 (AUS scale) without making a landfall, staying away from any big harm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:00, December 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * That's good to hear, people. Then the Aussies don't have to worry about Mitch, don't they? Unlike the one in 1998... (I WAS BORN IN 1998 XD) I think he is going to be a tiny baby storm though. :o Princess cadance pixel trot by klopp22-d4zfuk2.gif]][[File:Mlp.png Raraah, Awesome Pony Mlp.png[[File:Princess cadance pixel trot by klopp22-d4zfuk2.gif]] 19:15, December 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Actually, gale force winds are already extending slightly over 100 miles from Mitchell's center in its southeastern quadrant, but I do not know what an Australian region cyclone's average gale diameter is, so it's not exactly a "tiny" storm. Also, Mitchell's current maximum sustained winds is 40 knots and its current central pressure is 994 hPa. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:48, December 29, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mitchell
Mitchell has dissipated off the coast of Australia.... STO12 (talk) 03:22, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

Well, that was SO much faster than I expected it to dissipate. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  04:28, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

I was really surprise too.Allanjeffs 19:05, December 30, 2012 (UTC)

05U.NARELLE
This could possibly become Narelle later this week. STO12 (talk) 04:13, January 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Now named. And Narelle could be a very powerful storm when it nears Western Australia. JTWC forecast currently takes it to a strong cat 4 on SSHS (cat 5 on AUS scale) before passing very close to, or making landfall at, the Exmouth area at Cape Range. Ryan1000 14:53, January 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * While yes, this storm will become powerful, I doubt this storm will make landfall as a tropical cyclone. I am however more concerned about the future monster storm that will be coming after this one. Supportstorm (talk) 01:15, January 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * We might see another big storm, or we might not. GFS sees another storm becoming as powerful as Narelle in several days, and makes that storm (Oswald) hitting the Port Headland area at about 240 hours. But that's really far in advance, too far for me to believe right now. The ECMWF doesn't see anything coming behind Narelle, and they're a little slower to kill her off of Australia's West Coast. Ryan1000 05:03, January 9, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Narelle has been upgraded to a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone. It is currently expected to become a Category 4 storm (AUS scale) dangerously close to the coast. Carlos or Tracy 2.0? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:40, January 9, 2013 (UTC)

Doubt it. What I am looking foward is the possible formation of Andrea in the Atlantic as the Gfs and Euro has been showing in the past 2 or 3 runs and it looks like some other models may come aboard. hope it happen have your finger cross people.Allanjeffs 20:40, January 10, 2013 (UTC)

Narelle is up to a Category 4 tropical cyclone. I highly doubt 2013 will start like 1978 or 1938 did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:21, January 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * And now a category 5 cyclone. Isaac829 E-Mail  22:41, January 11, 2013 (UTC)


 * Narelle now weakening... STO12 (talk) 17:38, January 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * Is narelle heading to perth ppl? btw, did she do katrina like damage NARELLE IS DEFO GUNNA GET RETIRED, NAUGHTY GIRL! Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 20:43, January 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * She hasn't gotten there yet -_- By the time it hits Perth, it wouldn't cause a lot of damage. -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:58, January 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * @Liz: Have you even heard of Tracy or Yasi? They are more like the AUS region equivleants of Katrina. And Isaac, even if Narelle does not cause a lot of damage, Australia retires storms that just bring rainfall to them, so it could still get retired. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:16, January 12, 2013 (UTC)


 * I've heard of Yassi and Tracy but IDK much about them tho :o Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 21:20, January 12, 2013 (UTC)
 * Personally I don't like how Australia retires so many names, but I won't argue to them about it if they have different points of view from us. Even so, they could get something bigger in the next several days, as the GFS suggests. Ryan1000 00:08, January 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Narelle is barely a severe tropical cyclone now. Also, it is forecast to miss Perth now. However, it could still make a landfall in the extreme southwestern corner of Australia (but the BoM expects it to be a tropical low by that time). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:53, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle
Doesn't even make it to Perth.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:50, January 14, 2013 (UTC)

Darwin Tropical Low
I don't think I can say much about this low other than the fact its current barometric pressure is 1004 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:40, January 13, 2013 (UTC)

This is the big storm GFS was foreseeing earlier. They take this storm (future Oswald) becoming almost as powerful as Narelle, but making landfall as a powerful cat 3/4 instead of missing land. Port Headland should keep their eyes out for this one. Ryan1000 14:01, January 14, 2013 (UTC)

Hmm...Apparently GFS overhyped this one. Now it's probrably not going to become much at all. It might not even become Oswald. Ryan1000 14:25, January 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * I was thinking the same thing. At least now Western Australia can enjoy the rainfall without a destructive cyclone making landfall. Supportstorm (talk) 21:42, January 15, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Low
The low lost tropical characteristics. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:43, January 15, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Low 07U
We got another tropical low hovering off Australia's eastern coast. Anyone predict a named storm out of this? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, January 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Oswald
We have Oswald. Currently forecast to head inland as a TS, not becoming a cat 1 cyclone, but it could be a heavy rainmaker.

Oswald probably will only cause as much damage as Narelle did. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:05, January 21, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Oswald
And...it is gone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:07, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Maybe for not long I think it would regain tc status very soon.Allanjeffs 20:50, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Low 08U
And we have got another low. Tropical Cyclone Peta, anyone? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:05, January 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * GOOD ONE ANDY. XD I think that this storm will campain for animal rights and pretend to be Josh Hutcherson. Oh, and by the way, I am probably seeing PETA Mellark becoming probably a cat 3/4? Will he make a landfall? I think so, Western Aussie. Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 22:50, January 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * 08U is just offshore the Western Australia coast, but it's expected to parallel the coast for a day before making landfall. Given that it's over relatively favorable wind shear and over the world's warmest waters at this time of year, a cat 1 or 2 cyclone, perhaps stronger than that, is not impossible from 08U. Ryan1000 02:40, January 22, 2013 (UTC)

I hope this storm does not become too bad. Also, to clarify, the name Peta is being used as a feminine name is this situation because it falls between (Lee Harvey) Oswald and (The) Rusty (Nail), both male names, on the naming list of the Australian region. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:07, January 23, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Peta
And unbelievably, it's gone! PETA members will feel grateful, but not Josh Hutcherson fans. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, January 23, 2013 (UTC)