Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

November
Has come, but EPac and ATL have pretty much shut down by now. Ryan1000 10:55, November 1, 2011 (UTC)

I think one more storm is possible after all the models are hinting something Allanjeffs 23:14, November 12, 2011 (UTC)

Currently in the SW-Caribbean, should cross Panama. Major Hurricane Kiewii 16:56, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

GFS expects 2 storms to form in the Pacific. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  17:00, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

Development is very rare for the EPAC this late in the year. HurricaneOwen99 01:17, November 16, 2011 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
But not impossible now we have invest 90 could become Keneth and we could have lidia as gfs is predictiongAllanjeffs 22:15, November 16, 2011 (UTC)

I wouldn't be too surprised if we don't have development from 90E or any other storms from here on out. November for EPac is almost like December for the Atlantic. Storms rarely form here at this time of year, and Hurricane Sergio was the strongest November storm on record here. Even so, he was in an El Nino year and didn't become a major hurricane. The latest MH in EPac history was Xina of 1985, but it still never affected land. We may see development of this, but it's not very likely. Shear is really going to pick up in the next 3-4 days, so it better get on with it now if it ever will. Ryan1000 23:54, November 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20%. Yqt1001 13:15, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * SHIPS is thinking a 60 knot storm right now. Ryan1000 21:44, November 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30%. Yqt1001 23:56, November 17, 2011 (UTC)

40%. Yqt1001 06:14, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

We could be looking at yet another hurricane this weekend. God, EPac just doesn't know when to stop. I thought it would end with Irwin and Jova, but now we could be looking at the first hurricane to develop in November since 2006, and the first in a non-El Nino year since Octave in 2001. Ryan1000 07:38, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

And our 7th November 'cane on record. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 23:32, November 18, 2011 (UTC)

50% here comes keneth Allanjeffs 00:38, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

It is currently only forecast to become a C1, but HWRF does explode it into a category 4 storm in the next few days. At the rate we have seen explosions earlier this year(especially with Eugene; at first he was never forecast to exceed C1), I wouldn't be surprised if future Kenneth can do that briefly too. If it does explode to a C4, it would be the strongest November hurricane on record in EPac. Ryan1000 06:00, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

Update:Now 60%. Looks like Kenneth is coming after all. Ryan1000 06:18, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 70%. 01F.KIEWII 11:56, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

I'm expecting at most Tropical Storm Kenneth, but I won't be surprised if 90E can become the first major hurricane in November EPac or CPac history. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 13:40, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

I doubt major hurricane strength, but hurricane strength is not out of the question. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  16:42, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

And NOAA didn't make their forecast too accurate. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  16:44, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

They were so far off this year it's not even funny. This thing may become a hurricane, but it won't be running into shear or dry air until about Tuesday. It has a descent chance of developing into Kenneth later today and possibly a hurricane by Sunday or Monday. However, if it takes advantage of the low shear it's in right now, it has a chance to explode, as indicated by a few models. However, it's not a gurantee as of yet. A hurricane pretty much is though. Ryan1000 19:50, November 19, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
Due to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane on Tuesday. 01F.KIEWII 20:40, November 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay! Something to track! Yqt1001 20:51, November 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Finally something active in the world. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  21:00, November 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Currently this one is forecast to be a slow-going storm, but it looks pretty good on sattelite imagery. I think we could have another hurricane this weekend, but there still is a possibility it could become a strong hurricane as it heads out to sea. Ryan1000 23:01, November 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * The NHC is forecasting it to become a tropical storm in 12 hours, then a hurricane in 4 days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 00:04, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you guys want to know how late in the year 13-E is, read this:
 * BASED ON HISTORICAL RECORDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS THE

LATEST-FORMING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IN 1987...WHICH FORMED ON NOVEMBER 24. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE IN 1983...WHICH FORMED ON DECEMBER 4.
 * Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 00:16, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not that unusual to see storms form in November in EPac, but it's still not the most active month and Kenneth would be the latest "K" storm in recorded history for EPac; the last time a K storm formed this late was Kiko in 2007. Ryan1000 14:14, November 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * supposedly is now TS Kenneth but wow only 11 name storms that is low and 2010 7 that is like a record for two straight years i know in hurricanes is above average but in name storms noAllanjeffs 20:05, November 20, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kenneth
It's here. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  20:22, November 20, 2011 (UTC)

Now official. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  20:52, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * What I don't understand is why the NHC is calling this an incredibly rare storm formation time, even though it's still technically the season...why not decrease the season by 15 days if storms rarely form in this half of November? Yqt1001 21:06, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Guess they want to keep EPac and ATL in the same boundaries, but yeah, technically EPac ends before ATL does. This storm should be a straightforward hurricane, but I don't know how strong of a hurricane we are looking at right now. Ryan1000 21:24, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Expected to become a hurricane in 72 hours. And Allan, 2010-2011 ties with 1995-1996 for the least active back-to-back years since 1971 (19 storms). Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:08, November 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 50 mph now. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  02:49, November 21, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions?

Mine:


 * Adrian - 1% No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements.


 * Beatriz - 10% Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired.


 * Calvin - 1% Was indeed an interesting storm.

- HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are mine:
 * Adrian - 2% I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat.
 * Beatriz - 7% Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her.
 * Calvin - 0% He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end.
 * Dora - 3% See Adrian's section.
 * Eugene - 1% See Dora's, Calvin's, and Adrian's sections.
 * Fernanda - 0% - History doesn't earn retirement.
 * Greg - 0% - No.
 * Hilary - 5% - See Adrian's, Dora's, and Eugene's section.
 * Irwin - 1% - Became a hurricane, lived through shear, that's it.
 * Jova - 14% - See Beatriz's section.
 * Kenneth - TBA - Still active.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jova - 14% - See Beatriz's section.
 * Kenneth - TBA - Still active.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine (Until Calvin) <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no.
 * Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired?
 * Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P


 * A bit early but here are mine:
 * Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said
 * Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, and Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore
 * Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it.
 * Dora; 0%: Didn't do much other than RI.
 * Eugene; 0%: ^ same as Dora.
 * Fernanda; 0%: Got into the CPac, but that isn't a retirement worthy feat.
 * Greg; 0%: ^ same as Calvin.
 * Hilary; 1%; Landslides in Mexico, but that is nothing compared to the damage from Beatriz and Jova.
 * Jova; 4%: Rather similar impacts to Beatriz.
 * Irwin; A Philippe-esque storm, but his intensity roller coaster wasn't as intense as Philippe and the origins are different. Still, 0% chance though. Yqt1001 00:03, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt1001 20:42, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine:
 * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact
 * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy
 * Calvin 0%

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

HurricaneOwen99 19:21, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian:0% Nothing done.
 * Beatriz: 5% Slightly affected Mexico, but sometimes EPAC retirements can be surprises.
 * Calvin: 0% Who was this?
 * Dora: 1% Fun to track, but that doesn't mean retirement.
 * Eugene: 1% Won't be retired.
 * Fernanda: 0% Hurricane streak ended here, but no retirement.
 * Greg: 0% See Calvin's section.
 * Hilary: 0% She was a powerful, long lasting hurricane. That's it.
 * Irwin: 0% Irwin was like an EPAC Philippe. Didn't affect land alot.
 * Jova: 5% See Beatriz's section.

--HurricaneMaker99 17:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian: 1% - Unless he pulls an Adolph, no.
 * Beatriz: 10% - Some impact in Mexico, but not terribly significant. That said, there is the possibility that she could pull an Alma.
 * Calvin: 0% - Became a hurricane... and did absolutely nothing else.
 * Dora: 1% - Was fun as hell to track, but as Jake said about Danielle last year, beauty doesn't earn retirement.
 * Eugene: 1% - See Adrian and Dora's sections.
 * Fernanda: 0% - And so passes the first epic fail of the year (well, for the EPAC anyway).
 * Greg: 0% - See Calvin's section.

Here are my(official)EPac percentages as of now. Ryan1000 22:30, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 1% - Just because he was so freakin' awesome.
 * Beatriz - 10% - Some deaths, some damage, but enough for retirement? Probrably not.
 * Calvin - 0% - There are two reasons why this thing shouldn't be retired:Number 1, and of course number 2!(end sarcasm)
 * Dora - 0% - Didn't pull off what Adrian did, so no credit for her.
 * Eugene - 1% - See Adrian.
 * Fernanda - 0% - Finally the hurricane streak ends, and it didn't do anything but spin fish.
 * Greg - 0% - See Calvin.
 * Hilary - 0% - It was strong and long-lasting, but that doesn't earn retirement.
 * Irwin - 0% - It was long-lasting and persistent, but never affected land.
 * Jova - 10% - Like Beatriz, it caused some damage and deaths, but for Mexico, it's not enough for retirement.

Here's mine:


 * Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Hilary, Irwin, and Kenneth - 0% - they're all fishspinners.
 * Beatriz - 5% - At least it had fatalities and affected land.
 * Jova - 10% - I don't see this retiring.

Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  22:05, November 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Adrian,Calvin,Dora,Eugene,Fernanda,Greg all 0% because they didn´t do anything

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Beatriz 5% Arlene hurt more than this and she ws even helpful to a drought that was in that part of Mexico

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hillary 5% some flood but that part have seen a lot worse

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Irwin ?

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Jova?

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Allanjeffs 15:14, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">So, here's my summary of what and what's not going:

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Staying (<4%): Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, Greg, Irwin

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Possibly not (5-10%): Beatriz, Hilary 

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Possibly so (11-80%): Jova 

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Gone (>80%): No retirees 

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:06, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Does anyone have speculations on post-season changes? Adrian and Beatriz are done. I think Dora could have briefly been a C5 storm. Ryan1000 20:51, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

Nope.10'Q.'INVEST 22:13, October 28, 2011 (UTC)

TD 8 is done, no changes.10'Q.'INVEST 02:25, November 2, 2011 (UTC)

Can I see a link to where I can see all post-season chages in both the atlantic and pacific. HurricaneOwen99 01:34, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

The Atlantic and the Pacific 10'Q.'INVEST 12:10, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

Dora's peak intensity from the TCR is 929 mb, 135 kts. Hurricane Kiewii 23:37, November 3, 2011 (UTC)

Calvin's finished. Cyclone10 Talk  Contributions  22:03, November 15, 2011 (UTC)