Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: South of Central America
Here's an odd one...it appears a couple models make something out of an area of storms located south of Central America. Just worth mentioning (and I have no idea how to indent new sections at all here now). Jake52 18:00, April 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * You just need to put a colin at the left end of the page before you type to indent. You can put two or three, ect to make it further right. Also, you can use the Format button list at the top of the heading screen to change the format start, rather than surround it with equals signs. Heading two makes a new section like the Welcome one above, Heading 3 is for making new invests, ect and heading 4 is used for making specific named storms. There are also many other buttons avaliable above where you type, Jake. There is a Bold button, an Italic button, a strike through button, and an Underline button. It really helps if you wish to change your format of writing with the buttons, but if you need more help, I can explain it on my talk page. Ryan1000 20:02, April 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS predicts TD, strange start to season. . YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Not now it won't. There is no reasonably well-defined circulation with this system, and there is a trainload of shear surrounding it. The shear doesn't usually settle down until mid-late May, June, and July, ect. Now just isn't the time. Later. ^_^ Ryan1000 16:43, April 17, 2011 (UTC)

Aol:500 miles from nowhere
BI says "As the Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season will begin in just three weeks we see the first low (yellow arrow) forming well south of Baja and too far south to generate cyclonic action. But this action and the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone will march closer to Baja until our hurricane season begins in late August. ". YE Tropical Cyclone  20:17, April 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Aaand what? I don't think I actually see anything there, just a bunch of storms with no reasonably well-organized circulation. We have another month until the lid comes off, and then... Ryan1000 15:30, April 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Poof. I can't wait till the lid comes off. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:02, April 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * One more month, and then we kick into gear. Ryan1000 18:39, April 24, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: Off the coast of Central America
3rd AOI of the season, no mention on Two, and not expected to do much. Well, better than nothing when all the basins except the WPAC are asleep. YE Tropical Cyclone  14:03, May 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, the La Nina start isn't helping us, but the WPac and the Epac should be waking up by now. The Epac usually gets their first named storm by about now or in early June, but that won't mean we might not get a late start like 2009. Ryan1000 14:54, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will get a quiet start. This year will probably turn like the 2008 Pacific hurricane season or 1996 Pacific hurricane season or 2000 Pacific hurricane season if an El Nino forms like the 2004 Pacific hurricane season and the 2002 Pacific hurricane season. YE Tropical Cyclone  16:42, May 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * But a quiet start doesn't exactly imply a quiet season. 2009 had the latest start to an EPac season in 40 years, and we still got to 20 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 5 majors, the most active east Pacific season since 1992. And of course, last year's Atlantic season begun in June, we didn't get to the "D" name until August 22, and we still got to 19-12-5 in the season, third most active in numbers, and second most active in 'canes. We never know what may happen. The NIO should be having their first named storm by now, but they haven't... on a worldwide standard, this year is showing signs of a 1977 as of now, but that could easily change at any time. Ryan1000 02:35, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 1977? That sounds familiar. Anyway, the AOI looks decent right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * It doesn't look as vicious as it did yesterday, but it has a chance of becoming Adrian... I was saying it's partly like 1977 because the SHem had one of their least active seasons in years... We have only had 15 storms so far in the SHem season, 7 from Australia, 6 from the South Pacific, and only 2 from the SWIO... Australia typically sees 7 storms a year, the SPac saw six, compared to an average of 9, and this year's SWIO season was like the 1914 Atlantic hurricane season. Only 3 storms formed in the entire season; Abele from last November, a cat. 1 that stayed at sea, Bingiza in February, a cat. 3 landfall in Madagascar, and Cherono, a dud of a TS that remained at sea. The SWIO should get 10 storms every year, but this season had only two named storms(From 2010 only); it had to be one of the SWIO's least active seasons in many, many, many years. There is a chance this invest could become Adrian, but I won't count on it... The NIO should be getting their first storm as of now, but they haven't... And the WPac had their latest start since 2006, and have two storms with the closing of May. As of now, we have had only 17 storms form worldwide. At this time in 2010, we had 20 named storms and two cat. 5's (Edzani and Ului, both from the SHem, not to mention tons more would follow), and this year thus far, we have had 17 named storms and no cat. 5's (Yasi fell just short... 155 mph) and i'm not sure what else will be in store for us... We'll have to wait and see... if the worldwide tropical cyclone basins stay at the way they are for the next month, then we may be onto yet another dead year. I won't count out on this being a 1977 yet, however. Ryan1000 12:45, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Starting to fall apart now. I did not realize that 2011 was below that below average, but keep in mind, that it's only May, usually the least active month worldwide. I wonder what basin will keep us alive this year, last year it was the ATL and in 2009 it was the EPac. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:06, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I know... May is the least active month worldwide, and if it wasn't for last year's AHS or 2009's PHS, then we would have had two consecutive 1977's. Will it be the WPac this year? We'll wait and see what happens. Ryan1000 15:25, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gotta watch out, 20% according to NHC. <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">Talk to me  21:16, May 23, 2011 (UTC)

90E. INVEST
Well, it's on the TWO, with a 20% chance of development. This could become Adrian, but it probably won't. And, the number of storms is low, that doesn't mean a season's effects will be light. 1977 had Anita, 1992 had Andrew, of course... I'd rather have a busy season with no landfalls, then a quiet one with one major hit. HurricaneFiona 19:35, May 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I miscounted a bit in the numbers I mentioned above... We have had 18 thus far this year; I forgot to include Arani. In 2010 at this time, we had 21 storms(counting Anita in the SAtl) and 30 by the end of June last year due to the activity in the EPac and Alex in the Atlantic. I think we may have an active season, but I can't gurantee it. In 1977, only 60 storms formed worldwide, Anita was the only category 5 storm recorded worldwide in 1977, and that year remains the only season the WPac didn't produce a category 5 since the sattelite era in 1960. I don't really know why Anita was retired... Mexico was hit much harder by Hurricanes Liza and Madeline of the former Pacific hurricane season and by Tara of 1961, but none of them got retired, and Anita did, while only killing 10 people, and overall damage was insevere due to the lack of buildup in the area it made landfall... 1992 had a very quiet season in the Atlantic(yet destructive due to Andrew), but worldwide, 1992 was one of the most active tropical cyclone seasons on record. The Eastern Pacific had 27 named storms in that year, 16 'canes, and 10 majors, the all-time record in that basin. The West Pacific also had tons of storms in it's season, including Gay(pronounced haye, not Gay), the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded, in additon to an all-time NIO record of 13 named storms and a category 4 which crossed in from the WPac(Forrest), and a very active SHem season too. I don't think 2011 will be inactive worldwide as a whole, but that would only happen if the Northern hemisphere this year has a similar level of activity to last year, which I won't count on as of now. Again, we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 20:14, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 90e looks decent. I hope it forms. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:20, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, it look much better a few hours ago, now convection is barely persistent, the chances of formation isn't too impressive - Too much dry air. <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">Talk to me  23:01, May 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%, as I expected. <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">Talk to me  00:19, May 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Look like junk, due to dry air. Shear is moderate to high, the only reason it formed was due to 30C water. However, i due see a system left of 90E that may form. Still, worth watching. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:42, May 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The EPac can still get a late start and be very active, per what I mentioned above with 2009. 90E has failed, but don't count out on this basin just yet... It's usually the one that kicks into gear the fastest, and then slows down just as fast later. Ryan1000 00:59, May 24, 2011 (UTC)

AOi:near Mexico
Near 0%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:24, May 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * And it's nothing developing. I think this year's season will turn out to be like 2009 in a way. I think we will get a slow start and when we get neutral to El-Nino conditions in August, we're gonna explode here. The chances of us getting our first storm by now are low, but I'm thinking a start around June 20 or so. Then, the conditions will settle down enough for a ton of storms here. Ryan1000 21:13, May 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I doubt we'll get a EL Nino, and it appears we are to be heading for a quiett year at this rate. The EPAc weather patterns looks like an 2008-2009 hybrid. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Well, I highly doubt we will get a hyper-active AHS either. Last year was a strong La Nina, but the La Nina conditions are starting to slowly fade away. By the time the heart of the 2011 AHS comes onto us, we will likely have a neutral to weak El Nino weather pattern. There Is a chance of a 2008 or 2004-type season, but we have a near 0% chance of a 2005-like season, and I highly doubt we will get to 2010's or 1995's level of activity either. We will likely have a near normal to slightly above normal season, but this year's AHS will NOT be a 2005-type season. Even so, the Atlantic has had a little bit of thunderstorm activity rescently in the Carribean and a tiny area of thunderstorms south of North Carolina, but due to the harsh shear environment, I highly doubt either will develop at all. I'd be comparing this year to 2004 or 2008 in both basins, but we'll see. Ryan1000 20:05, May 31, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:close to Mexico
20% on NHC. I hope it develops. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

91E.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. Yqt1001 19:09, June 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * Nice to have some more activity, but the La Nina conditions aren't exactly helping us. I wouldn't be so surprised if this area of storms doesn't develop, and 94L hasn't exactly been getting it's act together either. However, the EPac season is under way, and we should be getting our first storm climatologicaly by now. The last week of May and first week of June is when the EPac starts up. The shear must settle down for us to get some storms developing. I mentioned some facts behind this year's tornado season in 94L's section(not to get off-topic), but if we had such an incredible tornado season, will the hurricane season reflect that? We'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 23:40, June 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...And the invests have died down. It appears we are on to a silent start in both basins. As of now, the tropics are sleeping, and they will wake up in the future at some point. I guess this is it for now. Here is the Atlantic water vapor imagery map from UNISYS, and here is the Pacific one. They have apparently died away, and I wouldn't be surprised if they actually do so soon.
 * Too bad, I really wouldn't mind seeing named storms around now. Oh well, I can wait. :) And yeah, I think tornado season reflects the hurricane season. The last tornado here was in 2005, this year there has already been a tornado warning. Granted it was only about 24 hours ago (thought there hasn't been one since 2008). Yqt1001 04:06, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 40%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:05, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It still hasn't been getting it's act together so much, and the conditions ahead of it aren't very favorable 1-2 days out. It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by chance, but after that, it'll just fall apart due to the dry air out to sea. Ryan1000 16:16, June 5, 2011 (UTC)

First red circle of the year! 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Yqt1001 18:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * I didn't expect it to jump that much, but i'm not expecting so much out of "Adrian". As I said, the conditions are only favorable 1-2 days out until it runs into some dry air and slowly fades away. But, well the Western Hemisphere hasn't even begun yet, and although the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific only account for about 1/3 of worldwide development, they account for a lot of destruction and deaths(particularly the Atlantic), and the activity in the Atlantic hasn't gotten any better since 1995. The EPac and WPac will likely be below average, the Atlantic near to slightly above average, and the SHem also below average. The 1995-now AMO hasn't exactly helped us have more storms on a worldwide standard, and the Atlantic just can't make up for what we haven't had worldwide, per last year's season. Ryan1000 20:45, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * We might not be seeing Adrian from this storm, but more than likely TD one. It's at 90% chance of development! How often do you think the world can keeps its below average streak of activity up for? I was really surprised at how the SWIO season was, pretty much..nothing this year. Yqt1001 23:39, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * Um, the storm aint forecasted to go out to sea. Dry air dpes not look too bad, wite a few mdoels show a hurricane out of this. I hope it beocmes a TD soon. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:46, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * First, the Pacific and Indian oceans accound for nearly 90% of all of the activity worldwide, and the Atlantic alone isn't enough; not to say there will be nothing, but the Atlantic has been accounting for more activity than usual rescently. I would probrably expect a near-normal to above normal EPac and/or WPac season in this year...


 * Second, the SWIO season normally does well during La Nina years, but since this year's SWIO season was record-dead, I fell the Atlantic hurricane season will reflect that. The 2000 Southern Hemisphere season was in a La Nina during that year, and there was a lot of activity in the southern hemisphere in that year. The SWIO had 2 very destructive, long-lived category 4 storms in that season, including Eline, which killed up to 1000 people in Mozambique and Madagascar, and later Hudah, which killed hundreds as it rampaged through both countries again. Had subtropical storms been named by then, the AHS in 2000 would have gotten up to Oscar, up till then only the second "O" name in the Atlantic, after 1995's Opal. I never thought this year's SWIO season would be so quiet following such a strong La Nina in the former Atlantic hurricane season, but I can't help that... Actually, seeing the activity in the SWIO this year, I would expect an El Nino to form at some point and kick the EPac and WPac into above-average seasons, and hinder the Atlantic somewhat. In no ways will I see a repeat of 2010, when all of the basins excep the Atlantic were dead, but thus far, things haven't exactly reflected that. It's only June, however, and only time will tell. La Nina events normally strengthen the Atlantic, SWIO, and Australian regions, and hinder the EPac, WPac, and SPac. El Nino strengthens the EPac, WPac, and SPac, and hinders the ATL, SWIO, and Australian regions. There can be exeptions to this rule, but that's usually what happens. This year had a record-dead SWIO season, a near-normal AUS region, although many of the storms were short-lived and weak, and the South Pacific was also near normal, but with Wilma, Yasi, and Atu, 3 cat. 4's. The season has just begun here though; I guess I can't really make assumptions based on what I've seen thus far. Ryan1000 01:34, June 6, 2011 (UTC)

What in the world happened to 91E. It did it last nigh, too. This is so like Georgette. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:35, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 91E, just develop already, the water are warm, there is nothing to be afraid off. Grow, son, grow. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Up to 'near 100%' now! --Patteroast 18:10, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * AKA... Here's TD one-E.
 * Um, not yet. It is so close though. The only a small increase in organization crap. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:06, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant really soon, perhaps later today. I'm not so sure though; it has been struggling a little, just like 94L in the Caribbean. Ryan1000 11:02, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's still at "near 100%!" Just a little bit more organisation and it will be TD 1E. HurricaneFiona 12:32, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm expecting a TD at 8. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * 91E is sure taking it's time developing, just like 94L. The thing about 91E is it is pretty weak, because gets nearly destroyed every DMIN stage of the diurnal pressure variation cycle. Yqt1001 14:15, June 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
In a special TWO update the NHC has declared 91E the first tropical cyclone in the EPac season! NHC forecasts hurricane Adrian in a few days from this. Welcome to the Eastern Pacific hurrican season 2011! Yqt1001 14:40, June 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yep, there we go! The western hemisphere season has oficially begun(discounting Arani)! I would expect it to head northwest, possibly parallel Mexico and head out to sea. Adrian is coming! Ryan1000 18:05, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Let the game begin. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Tropical Storm Adrian
First named storm of the season! Still forecasted to become Hurricane Adrian in a few days. Yqt1001 02:47, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * There we go! The party has officially begun. Not like it'll affect land, but it's worth mentioning. Hi, Adrian! Ryan1000 02:54, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well I might as well post some information. (I wanted to post about it being upgraded first, I was refreshing the NHC page constantly for 30 minutes :P) It is currently forecasted to become a category 2 hurricane before rapidly dissipating and the NHC gives it a 60% chance of rapid intensification in the next day. Will be fun to track over the next week! Yqt1001 02:58, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it will reach 90 knts. Atomic said 70 knts and Darren said 100 knts. What does everyone else think? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:25, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm thinking a peak around 70 - 80 kts. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 04:25, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * BTW, I'm up to 105 kts. I have a feeling this one is going to explode in the next 6-12 hours. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 05:24, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm up to 95 knts for me. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:03, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure, but hurricane Celia became a cat. 5 last year, and it was never forecast to do so. Adrian may become a major hurricane, but anywhere past 120 mph is out of the question IMO. If it does become Hurricane Adrian, the 1987 Adrian will still remain the most rescent Adrian to not become a hurricane. As a side note, there is a "Retirements at a glance" section in the Southern Hemisphere forum, though no one has really bothered to go there... Ryan1000 14:15, June 8, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical storm watch for a portion of the Mexican coast. 5 mph from hurricane strength right now, looks like we will see Hurricane Adrian in 6 hours! NHC also predicts the storm getting to 110mph winds before dissipating, so looks like we will get very close to Major Hurricane Adrian if we don't get to 115mph winds. Yqt1001 14:54, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's heading north-northwest at only 5 mph, but it's forecast to change to WNW soon. If it manages to pick up some steam, we could have it near the Mexican coastline, or briefly make landfall. I highly doubt it will be a bad storm for Mexico, but high surf, rip currents, and heavy rain could still cause rough conditions on the Mexican coastline. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 15:28, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * A surprising thing for me is how fast the NHC weakens it after 5 days. They're saying it would be a Post-tropical remnant low by Day 7 (168 hours). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:31, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am going with 85 knts, it does not look like it was going to strength anymore. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:57, June 8, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Adrian
First hurricane of the season! NHC still has it going up to nearly 110mph winds before dissipating. NHC still says rapid intensification is likely. Yqt1001 00:02, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Party! Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:37, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Best Track now has it at 70 kts/987 hPa. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:49, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am so excited with this system. I don't think this will happen, but I hope it beocmes a MH YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC has Adrian at nearly 50% for category 3 strength in 24 hours. They really seem to think that this storm will explode tonight and tomorrow. Yqt1001 03:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hope it does. These are the good storms to watch, the 'canes that head out to sea, don't affect land, and we can root on them to get as strong as possible! I'm liking Adrian's looks; it's rather impressive on the sattelites, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does intensify into the season's first MH. Ryan1000 03:23, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * And... winds are up to 90 mph now and the pressure plunged to 979 mbars. It's not far off from MH status, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does become one soon. However, it better get on with it; time is running out. Ryan1000 13:18, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It looks like 105 mph right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:21, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * That's 90 knots, not mph. The wikipedia data on Adrian says 90 knots, but the winds are only 90 mph, or 80 knots. The latest advisory might up it to that, however, and it certainly is impressive on the sattelites. Ryan1000 13:24, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * The eye looks really similar to Igor's eye as Igor was rapidly intensifying. In fact you put the two storms next to each other and the only thing that is different is the not quite so round shape on Adrian and more ragged rainband because of dry air on the north side of Adrian. Yqt1001 13:30, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It still is very well-organized, and it has a chance to become a major hurricane soon. It is inhaling some dry air on the north side of the circulation, but that may not be enough to stop it from becoming the first category 3 storm of the EPac season. There also is a brand-new storm in the WPac as well. We're getting a pretty good start if you ask me. Also, Adrian's fate may not exactly be nothing; the mid-level ridge over Mexico is expected to weaken as a trough from the Western U.S. pulls down and heads into Mexico, tearing up the ridge and possibly pulling it northward. If Adrian slows down, while the trough picks up, then the ridge will break down and pull it to the north, making a landfall in Mexico. If Adrian goes at the rate it is now, though, then it will encounter lots of shear, and die away very fast 5 days from now. Ryan1000 13:34, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Dry air now getting to the eastern side of Adrian now. If he keeps on doing this,
 * Adrian will not achieve the major hurricane status predicted. Although this might
 * happen, i still think Adrian will acheive category 2. 70.125.44.207 14:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Adrian
Eyewall is starting to collapse but it has winds of 115mph now! Won't be around for much longer, the dry air is really getting to it but hey, it's a major hurricane now! Yqt1001 15:06, June 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * Wohoo! First MH of the season! And yeah, it'll probrably stop there, the northern half of the eyewall has almost completely collapsed. Anyhow, it's going good! Category 3, perhaps it could hit 120 mph, but it won't last long either way. Ryan1000 16:43, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Held at 115 mph. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Hello? Is anybody home? Adrian is Cat 4 now! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:53, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, I was not expecting that! It now has the winds up to 135 mph and 950 mbars. Reminds me of Julia of last year's AHS a bit. It has an outside chance of becoming a 5, but I won't count on that. Either way, this storm is exciting! Ryan1000 22:57, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow! I was not expecting this at all either. Surprising that it is still intensifying despite dry air and cooling water, but in theory the water never stopped Julia. It's really impressive now on the satellites, it's nearly symetrical and the dry air doesn't seem to be destroying the storm as much as it was before. Even the eyewall looks good now! Yqt1001 23:10, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's now up to 140 mph/946 hPa. That should certainly be its peak. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:53, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it'll probrably die down now, but it was worth watching! The intensity forecasting can be very far off from hurricanes, as Adrian and Julia showed us. You never know what tricks mother nature can pull on us. Ryan1000 02:19, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Why is everyone thinking the storm peaked? It still has another good 24 hr left before it weakens because it is Annular. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:45, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess anything still is possible, this storm is at 140mph winds right now anyways (I was doubting that it will reach category 3 strength not even 14 hours ago!). NHC says it still has 12-18 hours to develop and then in 24 hours it will start weakening, so anything is possible. Yqt1001 02:56, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, the stronger, the better. I think Adrian has a shot at category 5 due to it's current strength, but it all depends. Anything is possible, but I have no idea how strong it may get to be. I hope it does get to category 5 because it won't be affecting land either way, and the EPac cat. 5's are the fun ones to watch. No threat to land, and we can root for him to get as strong as possible! Ryan1000 03:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am dying for a Cat %. I JUST HAVE A FELLING IT WILL REACH IT. IF IT DID IT WOULD BE AWESOME MAN. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Cat 5 is pushing it! Seriously, its remarkable that it reached Category 4 intensity. I mean, yeah, with all that dry air around it, it's surprising that it has rapidly intensified to that. Considering all data, the I believe the Maximum potential intensity of the storm right now is at 130-130kts, with dry air and SST's being the main limiting factor. Adrian is close or is nearing its peak intensity because its traversing through progressively cooler waters. That being said, because this storm is exhibiting features reminiscent of an annular hurricane, it will maintain the peak intensity for quite a long time, possibly right until it passes the 26.5 degree boundary, and it could maintain its intensity for even longer than that. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 04:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * You can't tell what it'll do, Darren. Daniel of 2006 almost became a cat. 5, and it likely would've had the ridge north of Daniel not headed back to Mexico like it did, leaving it over the weak steering currents near Hawaii. Annular hurricanes don't weaken as fast as other hurricanes if they are in unfavorable conditions, but they also happen to maintain their intensities more than strengthen. Anyhow, I hope it does reach category 5 because it is in the perfect position to do so. Out to sea, not affecting land, and just an all ya can root for storm. Matter of fact, this storm is not weakening as much as I otherwise had thought so, and Adrian controlls his own destiny as of now. Ryan1000 11:57, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Everyone here should be just as excited as I am. We will have another day to look at a beautiful hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well it is starting to weaken now, so yeah I think it has hit it's peak. Although it isn't impossible for it to strengthen 25mph over the next 12 hours, it just doesn't seem too likely. But this storm was pretty awesome, it showed how unpredictable these storms are in the end and the best we can do is just hope our predictions are right. I know if I told myself 24 hours ago that this storm would become a category 4 storm I would be thinking "What!?!?!" because I was hoping for a category 3 but I didn't think even that is likely. Yqt1001 14:50, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's now down to 135 mph and 948 mbars, and the weakening trend will continue for the next few days until it goes away forever. Anyhow, it was great to watch. I was stunned to see Adrian reach category 4, but 2 days ago i'd be stunned if it cracked a 3. It happens to mark the second consecutive year with a category 4 hurricane in June, not sure if that's a record, but it was great to watch either way! I'll be tracking it until it dies away. Ryan1000 15:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * A very interesting first storm of the season! I hope it's a precursor to an interesting season. HurricaneFiona 21:14, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to category 3 now. It's eyewall is starting to wear away and it may die down soon, but behind Adrian, we have a small area of thunderstorms south of Central America which could become future Beatriz. The Pacific is on a roll, 4 storms as of today, June 10(Aere, Songda, Adrian, and Sarika), and lots of the season left too. The Atlantic has yet to begin, but it is not at all surprising to me that the AHS hasn't started yet; it's only June 10. Ryan1000 22:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh well, our eyes turn to the AOI soon. Still looks ok. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Now it's eyelike structure has fallen apart; I wouldn't be surprised if Adrian now falls down to a category 2 or lower on the next advisory; the eye itself has almost completly dissapeared. It was still fun to watch though! Ryan1000 02:20, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Adrian (sadly)
Good prediction Ryan, anyways yes, it's back down to category 2 now that it's eyewall crashed on itself. Was very fun to watch, I'm adding it to my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 03:01, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Adrian was so awesome. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:06, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * It was fun to watch while it lasted, but now it will (sadly) slowly die away until it's never seen again. You were a great 'cane, Adrian. Long shall you go in the Pacific hall of fame! Ryan1000 04:40, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's down to a category one, 85 mph, and it will slowly die away from here. I wouldn't be surprised if today is Adrian's last day on earth, or tomorrow, but he was such a great 'cane. Ryan1000 14:37, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (sadly)
Adrian need to go to the hospital. He has hypothermia. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:58, June 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * Poor Adrian. He was such a great storm, but now he's dying away from the disease known as wind shear and infection known as dry air. Well, he was great to watch. Today might be his last day I'll ever see this once great cane. Ryan1000 15:36, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * How come you kept the (sadly) title on this one and not the Hurricane Adrian one!? :P Anyways, he was a wonderful storm to watch and I think he deserves a #1 or #2 spot on my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 15:45, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * YE put it as sadly first, but then I changed it... Oh well. Now I put both as (sadly) since he was really a great 'cane. Sarika in the WPac is gone, but it did kill 25 people and do 248 million in damage to China. Also, the NIO has their second storm as well(named ARB 01), but i'm not exactly going to put any bets on it becoming a monster, possibly a minor TS. The tropics are really kicking into gear. Adrian will likely become a TD later today and die out tonight. I might nickname him "Awesome Adrian", for my favorite storm of 2011 thus far. Ryan1000 19:26, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:Near Central America

 * Small, Auree mentioned this on IRC. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

It just keeps getting better and better everyone! Here comes our next one! I'm counting on Beatriz soon, perhaps in a few days. Ryan1000 02:21, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * I would not be surprised to see a storm out of this. Yqt1001 03:03, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is barely the beginning, everyone. The outflow of Adrian may hinder (Beatriz), but it likely will follow in his great footsteps and hang out at sea. Ryan1000 04:43, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looking good. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:57, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * And getting better. We could easily have this storm become Beatriz and the wave near Panama become Calvin before the 20th of June. We're already trying to catch up to 2010's early hot streak, but unlike 2010, we aren't in La Nina conditions now. We're slowly starting to get more favorable here. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:moving over SA and Panama

 * Technically in the ATL, but slowly moving westward. Could become Calvin in like 5 days. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:00, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Wow, we're getting active! We have the wave south of CA which could become Beatriz, another wave which could become Calvin, and future Keila in the Arabian Sea. I'm fully on the lookout. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Worldwide activity discussion
Since there's been a lot of discussion about this I created a section where we can talk about worldwide activity, and not in the storm section. Note:that this applies to entire worldwide, not just the EPAC. If this discussion beocmes out of hand, it will stop. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone


 * NOOOOOO!!!! The season has just begun! We did this last year in August, but in June? No way, Jose! The tropics ain't gonna be dead just yet. Why must we begin this in the first place? Were 6 days into the month of June and we're already talking about dead shit? Stop this right now! >:( Ryan1000 11:40, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Let's wait until September this time, just to be sure the world will be dead. The one thing that is rather dead, is these forums. Just me Ryan, YE and Fiona (occasionally)...looking through the archives this time of year last year, there was quite a bit more activity than this. Yqt1001 12:37, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I retitled the section, happy. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:38, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Haha, the occasionally made me laugh. I'm mid-exam season at the moment, so I don't have as much time as I would like. And yeah, the Pacific's a little later then normal but the Atlantic season only just started... it's too early to really speculate on the overall activity of either season! HurricaneFiona 15:55, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Humph. Better, but I hope we get some more activity this year. The only basin thus far in this year that really was dead was the SWIO, with only 2 storms, compared to an average of 10; AKA, their 1914. The Australian region had 7 storms, which is exactly what they should have, and the SPac saw six, comparing to an average of 9, but had 2 cat. 4's and a third which reached it in the Australian region, and became the costliest cyclone ever there. But do we have to already discuss about dead activity? For god's sake, complaining about this season being a bust as of now is like your teacher saying "you have 10 minutes to complete your entire 100-question exam". That's not fair! Please have patience, everyone! We didn't talk about the "Dead basin thing"(Which ME, MYSELF, And I Archived!) until August of last year, not so much June(other than Alex and EPac "retirements at a glance"). The most active years on the Hurricane Wikia were by far 2007 and 2008. In those years, every basin except the SHem and NIO got a lot of attention. The WPac got a lot of attention in those two years, the EPac a little, and the Atlantic a lot. 2009 was hurricane wiki's least active year ever. The WPac didn't get that much attention, and the Atlantic didn't either; the majority of the Atlantic activity was explaining on a worldwide standard as to how dead we really were. The EPac got a little bit of attention, but not so much, and the SHem and NIO forums weren't even made in 2009. There wasn't a single edit on the EPac forum in 2009 for the entire month of June. For god's sake, we missed Andres, TD one-E, and part of Blanca during that time. Rick, Jimena, and Neki were the only storms in the Eastern Pacific actually worth mentioning of to some extent. But we're just beginning here, and the lack of EPac and Atlantic activity doesn't really surprise me as of yet. Please have patience, or I shall delete this absolutely pointless section when I do not feel like it's boring!(end sarcasm) Ryan1000 17:02, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well the year certainly hasn't been that dead yet (I was just wondering how long it could keep the record low activity streak up), some basins are late to start. The SWIO activity shocked me this year and none of the northern hemisphere basins (though the WPAC did have a rare category 5 typhoon in May) have really started yet. Looks like both the EPac and ATL are starting up though. 91E is going to be TD1 if it stays as organized as it is now until 0000z (near 100%) and 94L has been upgraded to 50% chance. I`m still thinking that it will be an above-average year in the Atlantic with a very very high chance of a major hurricane hitting the US. Most of the season will be in neutral (last neutral year was 2005) so it will be relatively difficult to predict what the season will bring. I feel that other basins will easily recover the lack of activity in the SWIO. Yqt1001 18:09, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * It really depends on what comes onto us... The WPac and EPac basins have had inactive seasons several times since 1995, including 1998 and last year, the least active WPac seasons on record. The lack of SWIO activity and slight South Pacific inactivity will hinder us, but ever since Songda, we've fallen asleep here. And Yqt, our last neutral season was not 2005, but 2008. Many people believe that that season was La Nina, but the activity in the Pacific and Indian oceans didn't correspond to the changes in the north Atlantic. Despite what many may say, 2008 was neutral. Many thought it was La Nina due to the above-average activity and destructive storms, particularly Ike, but the activity in 2008's AHS wasn't that far above average and the EPac, WPac, and Indian ocean seasons didn't correspond to the rising SST's in the north Atlantic. The changes in the Atlantic didn't correspond to what happened out west. The Epac is warming up, but I personally don't see 94L becoming Arlene in the future. TD one isn't out of the question, but Arlene probrably is. 91E is future Adrian to me, and it may parallel Mexico or briefly make landfall in southern Mexico, possibly as a hurricane, before turning out to sea. Ryan1000 20:39, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh contraire! 2008 was La Nina by definition, which states that "La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the counterpart of El Niño as part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern. During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C." 2008 meets that criteria. Sure, the effects may not have been uniform with most La Nina's, but abnormal is normal (if you know what i mean...) The number of storms in a basin in a season does not always correspond with the climatic pattern (04 El Nino comes to mind). And you consider an ACE of 144% median "that far above normal"? I agree that 94L will not form, but I disagree about the Adrian landfall part (I think it'll remain a fish, albeit a hurricane one). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:16, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant that 2008 wasn't entirely La Nina, but if 2008 was La Nina, why was the Pacific not dead in 2008 like it was in 2010? La Nina years do not always follow the "rules" Darren, but 2008's ACE was not the most hyperactive season I've seen. The WPac last year had a mere 14 named storms, 8 typhoons, 4 majors and one Lone category 5. The EPac had 16-7-2 in 2008(including a retired TS!). The EPac activity was near normal in 2008, but 2010 had a mere 7 named storns, 3 'canes, 2 majors, and a cat. 5, least active season ever, in terms of 'canes and numbers. And 2008 also had nearly 50 billion in U.S. damage, yet not a single U.S. major hurricane inside that 50 billion, wheras 2010 didn't crack a single 'cane on U.S. soil, despite having more named storms, 'canes, and tying major canes. La Nina years do not always follow the rules, Darren, and in many rescent years, they haven't been at all. 2007 was a good example. Take out Dean and Felix in 2007, and what did we have? Downright Sh!t! Just 4 canes, none past category one intensity, and no storms that lived longer than, say 5 days. 2010 was the 3rd most active season ever in numbers, second most active in 'canes, and we had an ACE of just 165 in 2010, just 20 higher than 2008's, not a single U.S. hurricane, and not even close to 1995's ACE, with the same number of storms, yet 4th highest ACE in the top 10. I can't see a pattern with rescent La Nina years like those. Can you see a trend with all La Nina years? Absolutely not. 1973 was a La Nina as well, but by golly it didn't look like it! No U.S. hurricanes, the first time in 11 years, and hardly any landfalls at all, and a June cat. 5 in the EPac? La Nina year's don't gurantee bad seasons all the time, per 2007 or 1973, and in the same manner, El Nino year's aren't always quiet, per 2004. This year will likely be a near-neutral season, but I highly doubt some of these seasons were really like that based on the weather pattern i've seen. We have had 3 La Nina years since 2005, and during that time, we haven't had a single major hurricane cross U.S. soil, let alone the entire eastern seabord of the U.S.(!!), let alone were there any close calls at all(other than Earl of last year). I personally haven't found a constant trend between El Nino year's being very nice all the time or La Nina years always being bad for the Atlantic. I don't think you have either. So I suggest this topic stop right now. The experts were right when it came to the patterns of ENSO events, but the public are getting angry at them because they haven't nailed sh!t when it came to U.S. landfalls, other than 2008(which only goes to show 5 or 10 mph doesn't really make a difference when it comes to size and power of storms... Gustav and Ike). I personally don't see a pattern between these events. I suggest this discussion stop right now, because it's only June 7th. The season has just begun, and i'm not going to bustcast about sh!t in 2011, because this year has just begun. We didn't talk about this until last year in August, but f**k no we aren't doing this sh!t in June. No way, Jose! I personally highly doubt we will get a 2005-like season, but i'm leaning towards a neutral season, one that doesn't have 2005-like conditions. If anyone will bustcast about 2011 any further, or if this discussion gets any further out of hand, it will be discontinued. Period. Ryan1000 22:44, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2011 is not a bust, but it is not the best season ever either. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:54, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Some places in 2010 haven't been as active as usual(SWIO, NIO), but the Atl and EPac will not be busts. As I have mentioned several times before, we have gone SIX years without a landfalling hurricane on the east coast and haven't had a major U.S. 'cane either. People have gotten too complacent. A streak that long hasn't happened in a very long time, if ever. I think this season will be a very bad one, but people will likely think the next east coast hurricane or major hurricane will turn away and miss, as they have done in the past 6 years. This season will not be a good one, I don't think, but people can't wrap their minds around the fact we could have entire cities destroyed by storm surge and winds in just a few hours. We have had one lucky year too many. The SWIO and NIO are the only two basins that are dead as of what i've seen, but worldwide, I'm not counting on a 2010-like season. That year was second to 1977 as the least active worldwide season on record; see the Farewell section of the 2010 forum for specific details on the numbers. Ryan1000 23:06, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the ATL will be somewhat bad. I think we will get two landfall hurricanes in the US and a total of 2,3 billion in damage from all US systems combined. The NIO looks interesting right now, and I think the EPA will be two storms less than the 2008 total (including CPAC), with like 2008, three landfalling systems (1-E is not one of them). The WPAC activity will probably be around 25 storms IMO. Most importantly, everyone should prepare for the worst. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:42, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure of just 2.3 billion in damage(unless you meant 23 billion), but we never may know. I think the WPac will be a little less active than 25 named storms, but a 2010 repeat will most likely not happen. There are so many places in the U.S. that are overdue for a major hurricane right now. Miami, NYC, Savannah, Houston(Ike doesn't count), Corpus Christi, just a few examples. The NIO and SWIO don't account for a large portion of storms worldwide, but they will hinder us with their inactivity nevertheless. The Epac is the only interesting basin as of yet. The Atlantic will likely begin in July, if not August, but 94L isn't future anything now. The EPac is the only fun basin to watch as of now. Ryan1000 01:18, June 8, 2011 (UTC

I think the ATL US damage will be better than 2008/2004 not more than 2010, somewhat more than 2007. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:31, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Oh god, are we forecasting damages now? Mark my words, you can never, and probably will never be able to accurately forecast damages. Period. You can forecast the climatic patterns, but you can never forecast how much damages a season will make. You can only say that there is an "increased" chance for destruction, but you cannot say we will get 32, 50 10 or whatever damage figure you put up in the air. The amount of damages in a season does not always correlate with the activity. Forecasting damages also leads to bustcasting in the long run, so don't forecast damages please? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:45, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's going to be an interesting season for US hits nonetheless. I'm rather happy that we did our Florida trip last summer (still got "hit" by Bonnie though) and our East Coast Canada trip this year. I really don't think that this year is bustcasting worthy at all, none of the predictions say that it will be quiet and the invest activity so far has been quite a bit. Anyways the only thing that I can say about damages is that it will be quite a bit if we get a landfall in America (I have a theory for this). Especially in one of the cities that are prone to a hurricane hit now (Savannah, NYC, Atlantic City, Tampa and Miami..interestingly when those cities were picked last year I was in Savannah..certainly not the feeling you want to know as a tourist!). Yqt1001 02:02, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Damned edit conflicts! >:( I would hope we get some U.S. landfalls in 2011, but not horrific U.S. storms. If we get a couple of big cat. 2 landfalls like what we got in 2008, that would be all we would need to wake us up in the U.S, so in the future, they aren't so bad. Ryan1000 02:22, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ideally, you want 0 US landfalling hurricanes, but I think the US is due fro another bad storm during the next few years, maybe one along the East Coast or south Texas. However, I hope this does not happen. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:47, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not that we want no U.S. storms, but we want people to know that hurricanes can hit us, and even if one hits for the first time in a long time, people must evacuate from that storm, even if they haven't experienced one before. Ryan1000 14:17, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I also feel like the reason Americans don't evacuate is because of their property and stuff they own. They don't want to leave it there and hope it survives because if they are there they think they can save something expensive or meaningful, but in reality, you can't really stop the devastation of a hurricane. I have a feeling that's why the American deaths are usually greater than hits in other developed countries. I also feel that's why companies can make tons of money selling things that are "hurricane proof". I bet you can probably make tons of money selling "Hurricane tape" to put over windows that is really just re-branded duct tape. I could only imagine how bad the deaths would be if a hurricane didn't hit the US in ~20 years and the people were comfortable and didn't evacuate when a category 5 storm was barreling down. However 2005 seems to leave a pretty scary mark on everyone's minds who remember that year.Yqt1001 14:44, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Many of the hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 weren't as deadly as the could've been(other than Katrina), because people have evacuated most of the time from hurricanes in those years. But since 2005, the only two hurricanes to cause signifigant damage in the United States were Ike and Gustav of 2008. A six-year streak without major hurricanes hasn't happened in a long time if ever, so when one does come calling in 2011, I hope people haven't forgotten the bad storms of the past and leave the coastline when told to. Ryan1000 15:37, June 8, 2011 (UTC)

Wow, the basins are so alive right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:58, June 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * Every basin in 2011 has had at least one storm thus far except the Atlantic, assuming 01A will become Keila. We're really kicking into gear! Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)