Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
We shouldn't archive this in case anyone wants to go to the HOF, and the betting pools need to be updated every now and then as well. The replacement names section can be archived later, in case it needs to be continued furthermore. Ryan1000 16:39, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
10% atm, but will be rather slow to develop, maybe not even until it reaches the western Caribbean. Ryan1000 21:09, September 30, 2012 (UTC)

Invest 96L now. Even though it might become a TS, the models actually recurve it east well away from the Lessers. It probrably won't become more than 50-55 knots anyway. Ryan1000 03:55, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

30%Allanjeffs 12:37, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

40% now, might be Oscar. Ryan1000 20:11, October 1, 2012 (UTC)

60% people Oscar might finally come after two bust.Allanjeffs 00:01, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Oscar's debut as a tropical cyclone. Also, if this does become Oscar, it'll mark the first time since 2003-2005 that the Atlantic Ocean has been able to produce three sucessive seasons of 15+ storms (NOTE: if you count Catarina, 2003-2005 had three back-to-back seasons of 16 storms). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Please be Oscar! It'll be its first naming ever since they created the new lists in 1979. STO12 (talk) 01:21, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

yep me too from the six lists this is the only that has not reach the O letter.the gfs make this a strong tropical storm and the ships a major lets hope for a major as its not going to affect land.Allanjeffs 01:32, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not sure about Oscar-to be becoming a major hurricane. Environmental conditions will only be favorable for 2-3 more days until it turns out to sea and weakens from there on out. And this year has the potential to make more than 15 storms if we keep going on after Oscar. If we get 3 more storms in October and one more in November, we'd have a 19-storm season. That would make 2010-2012 the first time we would have 19 storms in 3 straight years, but it would be a record if we had 18 or even 17 alone. So if we get two more storms after this, it would be a record by itself. Ryan1000 07:36, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Ok.... Oppa Oscar Style!! :D I think he would wander in the ocean 188.223.248.201 16:00, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

70% chance of becoming Tropical Depression Fifteen. Off topic, but the name Oscar reminds me of Oscar the Grouch. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:56, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

80% could become a td tonight or tomorrow morning.Allanjeffs 23:54, October 2, 2012 (UTC)

Later this morning. It'll be heading out to sea almost immediately though, moving into the area where Nadine sat in for more than a week. Outside chance at becoming a hurricane. Ryan1000 03:47, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

90% now. Here comes...Ryan1000 12:33, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen
OK!!! NEWS!! Tropical depression 15 is now active!! He is in Western Africa and is expected to be oscar (who will win an oscar award and a gold medal at the paralympics 100m *oscar pistorious, epic!*) and will be only a lil' tropical storm floating just off the coast of the Sahara! Oscar is now HERE! HE WAS BORN THIS WAY! :D So, what d'ya think of this? Oscar being a lil' tropical storm? Not another hurricane again! But I want my patty!! waaaa! *I think Miss Pattz would be stronger though!* 188.223.248.201 18:35, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE THRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT OCCUR.Allanjeffs 20:47, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Going to be a fishie.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:13, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Might not become a ts read at what the NHC has to say.
 * Unless TD 15 Michael or Daniels out, it'll just be another Joyce (but this is what I said about Michael, and look what happened). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:16, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

Oh no! The path is now beginning to keep it a tropical depression, no! Please be Oscar! D: STO12 (talk) 21:37, October 3, 2012 (UTC)

I call minimal tropical storm out of this, 40-45 mph winds. Nothing more or less. Told you the environment wasn't that favorable. It has one or two days to become Oscar. It'll be dead by this Friday or Weekend. Ryan1000 22:16, October 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * I want to see Oscar too, but I don't want a waste of a name like Joyce. Let this stay a TD. Unless this season pulls a 2002 or 2006, there should be plenty more opportunities for a decently strong Oscar, especially in the NW Caribbean (Rina, Paula, Richard, Ida, and throw in Paloma for the really crazy stuff). Remember, Michael is our only major of the season so far, and he just barely made the grade. --HurricaneMaker99 23:46, October 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * The last time this list was used in 2006 there was not a single Tropical Depression of that season that didn't become a TS. This year is on par with doing that too, unless this doesn't make it to Oscar. I want it to become something big, but if it meets the qualifications for even only a minor TS, we'll have to go with it. Ryan1000 00:11, October 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * I agree if it meet the qualifications for an upgrade lets do it no matter the intensity.Allanjeffs 01:39, October 4, 2012 (UTC) .FIFTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL

ATLANTIC...Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hm... AL, 15, 2012100400,, BEST, 0, 189N, 421W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 120, 130, 0, 0, 1013, 210, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OSCAR, M, -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:32, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * the 15 tropical storm of the season has develop base on the ATCF the curse may be broken waiting for the NHC for confirmation.Allanjeffs 02:38, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry hurricane Maker but Oscar is here.Allanjeffs 02:56, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Oscar
Lol yeah I saw. He's here, but already doomed. --HurricaneMaker99 02:59, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

And Oscar the Grouch made his Atlantic debut! And we got a Florence/Joyce 2.0. Sorry, Liz, but Oscar isn't going to win any Oscars Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:12, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yay! We have Oscar! I've been waiting for this all year! This is the first time in Atlantic history a tropical cyclone has been named Oscar, Hooray! Even though it going to be ripped apart pretty soon. STO12 (talk) 03:16, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah. Of course, 2000 would have had Oscar if the last subtropical storm was named, and it still counts as 15 storms overall in that season. He's falling apart already. By tomorrow afternoon, he (and Nadine) will be dead. Ryan1000 11:11, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

When Patty forms if it forms it would be a record breaking storm.Allanjeffs 21:22, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

Allan, that depends whether or not you count the South Atlantic. If you do, the record for the most active three sucessive Atlantic seasons will actually be tied (as I said above) (2003 made it to Peter, 2004 made it to Otto + Catarina, 2005 made it to Zeta + the Azores subtropical storm). If you don't, then Patty will indeed be a record breaker. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, October 4, 2012 (UTC)

2003-2005 had 59 storms in all 3 years, excluding the SAtl. 2010-2012 has had 53 thus far. We'd need to get to Alpha (storm 22) to break 2003-2005's record. If you include the South Atlantic, we'd only need to get to William, since there was Anita in 2010 and Arani in 2011, vs only Catarina in 2004. We'd need 25 storms this year to have 2011-2012 beat 2004-2005 as the most active back-to-back seasons ever, but I wouldn't look forward to seeing that happening. Ryan1000 21:45, October 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES

THIS EVENING. Apparently he will not win the HAMMYS :P -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:40, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

he keeps getting stronger even though I think this or 60mph will be its peak. I would be very surprised if it becomes a hurricane.Allanjeffs 03:05, October 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * The Oscar joke made me lol. NHC's been awfully cheeky this season. They had fun with Kirk, Nadine, and now Oscar. I was particularly fond of their farewell to Nadine: "Bye bye, Nadine...what a long and strange trip it's been." For future reference guys, please leave sections on recently dissipated storms up for a few days before archiving them. Archiving them as soon as the last advisory is issued is premature and cuts off a potentially active and relevant discussion. As for Oscar, I actually think he's done pretty well, considering the circumstances. I was hoping he was going to stick around for a little longer but that low in the north Atlantic has gone straight up beast mode, dominating most of the Atlantic basin. I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but El Nino is settling in and the Atlantic is already starting to shut down. The Caribbean and GOM are now dominated by westerly shear. There's a chance we could see another brief tropical storm like Oscar, but other than that, I think the season's pretty much over. It made the most of the time it had, but was remarkably short on power with just one major hurricane. -- SkyFury 08:24, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Oscar
Another fail.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:34, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Poof. Without winning any awards. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:02, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Actually the El Niño is faltering skyfury as Dr masters says I think we could squeeze three more named storms and one major probably in the Caribbean and would probably hit Cuba.Allanjeffs 23:27, October 5, 2012 (UTC)

Sorry Eric. I'll archive storms a little later after the storm dissipates. Well, Nadine could have her own archive. And no, 2012 isn't over yet. The El Nino was only temporary and we still could get 3-4 named storms before the season is out. Hell, we could move back to La Nina next year. Just because we have some shear now doesn't mean we keep having it. In fact, some models are picking up on a low that could form near the Bahamas next Monday or Tuesday from the trough emerging off the East Coast and that could become Patty. So no, don't give up on this season yet. October has had many nasty surprises, including the most powerful hurricane on record in the Atlantic and the deadliest Atlantic hurricane in over 200 years. I wouldn't quit on 2012 just because it looks bad now that October just begun. I said it was over before at times like this and I really spoke too soon. I won't do that again, especially for a season like this. Ryan1000 03:02, October 6, 2012 (UTC)

Hi Oscar! Oh... bye Oscar! And yes Ryan, October looks to be a good, and bad, month for cyclones. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:48, October 6, 2012 (UTC)


 * Oh I know there have been some nasty surprises in October, but none of them have happened in 30 knots of shear. I'm not saying Patty won't happen, but I am saying don't expect a storm of any significance for the remainder of the season. Given the increasingly negative and persistent upper level condtions, I seriously doubt there will be another hurricane this year and it wouldn't surprise me if there isn't another storm period. Throughout the Atlantic, shear is exceptionally hostile (up to 60 knots in the GOM, 40-50 in the W. Atl, and 20-30 in the Caribbean). I expect this to continue. I've seen this before. Upper level troughs and mid-latitude frontal systems have been digging deep into the Gulf lately, bringing nasty shear conditions along with them...their season is over. The Caribbean and the rest of Hurricane Alley is dominated by persistent westerly winds. This is unlikely to change for the remainder of the season. There's a chance a storm could find an upper level ridge to camp under for a few days and become an Oscar-like storm. Other than that, we're done. -- SkyFury 07:04, October 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * We still have 3 more weeks until October is over. The season actually undergoes a secondary peak by about October 19, so conditions actually could become more favorable one more time until they die off by November. Even so, we still can't let our guard down either way, since there have been surprises. But then again, not all of those surprises turned out to be what they were initially feared to. Hurricane Rina of last year was one such storm. The precursor storm that would become Rina was forecast to, at one point by the models, crash into Cuba as a monstrous 140 mph major hurricane, but in reality we barely got a major hurricane from Rina (it was upgraded in post-season), and it only lightly tapped the Yucatan as a dying tropical storm. The point i'm saying is, it's only October 7th. October is far from over and it's not out of the question we could get a strong storm in the Caribbean or GOM later this month. Ryan1000 11:59, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

This isn't wholly relevant to Oscar, but 60 knots of shear?!?! Holy cow! I wonder how rough a time a strong hurricane would be having when traveling into such shear conditions? --HurricaneMaker99 02:48, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

It won't last forever. It will settle down one last time in the next week or two until it dies out in November. Our secondary peak is 10 days away. Ryan1000 16:50, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
As I said Eric, never give up on a season. 10% atm, and could be Patty later next week. Ryan1000 17:39, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's in a pretty unfavorable environment though, but is expected to move out of the unfavorable area and possibly develop. Patty hopefully! STO12 (talk) 19:30, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * TBH, I'm more excited about Olivia than 97L. If this ever does become tropical and subtropical, better do it soon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:31, October 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * After it moves out of the shear over the next few days, we could potentially see Patty, but not in the next 2 days. Ryan1000 12:01, October 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Agree the NHC is flying tomorrow into this system if it continues to organize.Allanjeffs 15:24, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

Down to 10%, no Patty I don't think. It's in such an unfavorable environment that development will most likely not happen. Aw well, doesn't mean an invest won't pop up for the rest of the season. right? :/ STO12 (talk) 23:50, October 7, 2012 (UTC)

Actually the gfs is showing three storms in its run.two in the caribbean like 2008 when we have td 16 and Omar and 1 in the Eastern Atlantic like Nana.Allanjeffs 04:58, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Oh, well. Never looked like it had a chance. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

SHIPS briefly expects it to peak at 35 knots in 2 days, but I think that won't happen. Probrably not this one. Ryan1000 13:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

I think this might have a better chance than it has before! I just saw recent satellite loops on the system, and a continuous spin with deep thunderstorm convection around the center is occurring. This might in fact pull a "Jose (2011)" and become Patty! I'm not 100% sure though. STO12 (talk) 03:02, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Sorry, Otto, but 97L is off the TWO now. Doesn't mean it'll pop back up. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

this thing is looking very good right now may become a td later today even though its at 10%Allanjeffs 20:41, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Not expecting that to happen. If it does make it to something, make it to Patty (please). I don't want any unnamed depressions this season. We've already done a great job of that so far, in both the ATL and EPac. I hope 97L doesn't break that curse. Ryan1000 22:24, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">This can be like 2008 the sixteen td didn`t strengh that year.waiting for the two to see the chances of 97L.Allanjeffs 23:26, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

I want this to become either TS Patty or nothing at all. I'd like to see a season with no unnamed depressions, like the 2006 Atlantic season, but they had an unnamed tropical storm discovered in post-season at the same time Beryl formed in July. If we get no unnamed depressions this year in either ATL or EPac (which both have none right now atm), it would be the first time to have no unnamed storms period in either season, assuming there are no post-season tropical storms discovered. Ryan1000 23:55, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

Similar to 98L, organization of 97L has increased, and it now has a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:07, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 50% might become a depression but I am doubting a ts hope it doesn`t form unless it becomes named.Allanjeffs 05:49, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The models are split on where 97L will go. Some take it out to sea, while some move it in the opposite direction towards Cuba and the Bahamas. We'll see. Since this and 98L are both at 50%, it's a race to which will become Patty first. The latter would be Rafael, unless one of the two doesn't make it. Ryan1000 13:50, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sixteen
We might not see a TS out of this.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:07, October 11, 2012 (UTC)ç

Actually is a TS now.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 16, 2012101118,, BEST, 0, 258N, 723W, 35, 1007, TS<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 0, 1015, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIXTEEN, M,. History has been made for this list.Allanjeffs 20:36, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Patty
<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">now officially in the NHC page.Allanjeffs 20:43, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Did not see that coming.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:16, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * So 97L did make it. So far, so good, but it'll die soon. Ryan1000 21:21, October 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * For the record, this is A.) the seventh Atlantic 'P' named storm on record, AND: B.) The second time in Atlantic history we've seen back-to-back years of 16 named storms (and even this is only if you count 2004's Catarina). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:19, October 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * And the first time we saw 3 straight years of 16 storms in ATL, again only if you count Catarina. If 98L makes it to Rafael, it'll be the first time we got 17 storms for 3 straight years, and we could also do it for 18 and even 19 storms too. That's pretty remarkable. Ryan1000 21:26, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

I just knew it would be Patty! The name Patty does seem like it should be a weak storm, teh larger system should be "Rafael", which in my opinion is a strong storm name. STO12 (talk) 21:42, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">To be honest, I think both this and Rafael will be only tropical storms. Rafael has an outside shot to become a hurricane, but not a very strong one (C1 at most). Ryan1000 00:41, October 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ah, the Atlantic is trying to make me eat my words I see. I didn't think this piece of crap would become anything. If anything was going to develop, I thought it'd be 98L. In October, storms often form along decaying frontal boundaries, but most form in the Gulf. This one's a little stranger. It formed in 20-30 knots of shear and it's practically embedded in a strong frontal system associated with a mid-latitude cyclone, hell of one too (979mb). Looks like the NHC is thinking the front will leave Patty behind and the blast of shear associated with the southwesterly flow along the boundary will blow it to pieces. I agree. -- SkyFury 02:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, like I said on the header for 97L (Patty), never give up on a season. This storm didn't really do much other than steal a name off the list, to be honest, but it did develop in the face of immense wind shear, and it still counts towards the total. Ryan1000 11:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah probably a depression in the next advisory. we could see Sandy and Tony before the month is over. gfs is forecasting a storm in the central Atlantic and a storm in the NW Caribbean.Allanjeffs 17:00, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I knew 2012 wasn't over yet. We still have a chance to run the table. Assuming 98L becomes Rafael, we could get 2-3 more storms in October and another 1-2 in November. Ryan1000 18:03, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * More Amazingly is that we have no storms in July and only two in September and still we get pretty far down the list.Allanjeffs 18:29, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, we had a record August and pre-season Allan. We never had 4 storms form before July until this year, and only in one other year (2004) did we see an 8-storm August. 4 storms before July+8 storms in August+2 storms in September, and currently 2 in October (expecting a 4-5 storm October), adds up to a very active season. Ryan1000 19:25, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wasn't the only one who's forecast got busted by the recent activity. The Climate Prediction Center did not forecast any tropical development this week in the Atlantic. I don't view my dire prediction as "quitting" on the season. I saw what looked like an increasingly negative pattern developing in the Atlantic. In Patty's case, conditions were prohibative but the storm developed anyway. That's one of the things that makes forecasting so difficult. Sometimes storms don't follow the rules. I did say, however, that if a storm got a high pressure ridge to camp under, it could really do something, and that's exactly what's happening with 98L/Rafael. -- SkyFury 22:32, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Patty
Here goes nothing. Off topic, but I had no idea we would make it this far down in this naming list. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:05, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It still...doesn't want to die... Ryan1000 14:22, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Patty
It's rotted away. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:58, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It failed at living its life, but Patty gets credit in my book for forming period, given the conditions it was in at that time. Ryan1000 17:36, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">hmm.... exactly. pattz a weak storm, but im glad she formed for da first time! yey! love the name!! :D - eats a krabby patty - 188.223.248.201 20:56, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Central Atlantic
Popped on the TWO. Currently at 10% chance for development in the next two days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:36, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

Now this system should become Patty, unless the the other systems pulls a "Jose (2011)", then it would be Rafael. STO12 (talk) 23:51, October 8, 2012 (UTC)

If anything, it'll be Patty. 97L is in an enviorment gradually getting worse. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:12, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Invested and up to 20%. 98L could possibly be a long-term threat, but nothing is expected from it in the next few days. ECMWF is very underwhelmed by this invest. GFS sees it heading northeast of Puerto Rico and heading out to sea without becoming anything significant. It might actually recurve north before it even reaches the Lessers and head out to sea without doing (or becoming) anything. Ryan1000 13:59, October 9, 2012 (UTC)

Now up to 30% as organization improves. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm not sure if 98L is going to be in a real hurry to head north, like the GFS, Euro, and other models are suggesting. I just don't think it will head to Puerto Rico and the Virgins. 98L should head into the Caribbean sea and develop into something when it reaches the Westernmost Caribbean sea. I see no reason why it shouldn't. Ryan1000 17:17, October 10, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gale force winds have been reported in heavy squalls from 98L. With a better organization and more conductive conditions, this invest is up to a 40% chance of development for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:04, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Organization even better...50%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:43, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

The models are still strongly suggesting a sharp northward turn from this invest. GFS actually has it completely missing the Lesser Antillies to the east. The others move it to PR and the Virgins. Not one of them thinks this will make it to the western Caribbean, but that's where I would expect 98L to head toward. Ryan1000 13:50, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 70%! Here comes Rafael! STO12 (talk) 23:58, October 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It'll be heading into Puerto Rico and the Virgins over the next few days, but only as a TS. I'm not expecting a hurricane out of this. Ryan1000 00:41, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I am expecting a hurricane once its cross PR.Allanjeffs 02:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

It might be one eventually, but not before, or while, it hits the Lesser Antillies. They're probrably just gonna get some blustery conditions from this storm, but this will be no Marilyn, Lenny, or Hugo for the folks there. Ryan1000 02:25, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

I am expecting this thing to be a strong tropical storm to cat 1 when it reach PR it looks very good it might strength rapidly really want to know what recon founds tomorrow.Allanjeffs 05:20, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I really just want this to be only a TS when it strikes the islands. I don't want this to be any worse than Klaus (1984 or 1990). Or, it could pull an Omar, which exploded in the northeastern Caribbean yet missed most of the major islands. But we really don't want this to pull a Marilyn or a Lenny. Isaac was notable enough for this season anyways. Ryan1000 11:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">When Upgrade it would go straight to ts Rafael <span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucidagrande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;line-height:17px;">AL, 98, 2012101212,, BEST, 0, 137N, 618W, 35, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 150, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, the system is strengthening.Allanjeffs 15:01, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:'lucidagrande',tahoma,verdana,arial,sans-serif;line-height:17px;">NHC says they've refused to upgrade this storm to Rafael because it hasn't yet acquired a closed low-level circulation despite producing tropical storm force-winds. Once that happens, it will be Rafael. Still not too sure about how strong this will get though. Ryan1000 18:03, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * 90% per STWO.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:10, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Who could've called three sucessive years that reached the 'R' name (assuming 98L does so)? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:12, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * It would do so is on the verge of Becoming Rafael.Allanjeffs 21:20, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Rafa is imminent, if it's not already there. Three straight seasons of 17-plus storms is incredible. Hell, back to back 19 storm seasons was absurd. Neither of those things have ever happened. Say what you want about the power outage and the large percentage of weak storms, 17 storms is 17 storms. What makes this stretch so remarkable is the consistency of the activity. El Ninos happen. There's supposed to be one this year. Usually there's a lull every third year. So many things have to go right to get a 17 storm season. To have back to back to back seasons that active is simply remarkable. This storm is definitely one to watch. Most of the models make this at least a moderate tropical storm and some make it a significant hurricane. They also have it becoming a threat to Bermuda, so stay tuned. -- SkyFury 22:15, October 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rafael
Its here the 17 storm of the season has come.Allanjeffs 23:56, October 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * 40 mph/1006 mb. GOD! The Atlantic ocean won't stop! Stay tuned, guys. The Antilles are about to get a good visit from Rafael. Anyway, this means 2012 is now the seventh most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. BTW, who could've called back to back to back seasons of 17 named storms?! Even if you do count the SAtl, this is the first time in reliable Atlantic records this has happened. Our fifth 'R' named storm has just begun... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:38, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * I did. look at the betting pool I say Patty even though I am loosing by one storm I am not doing bad. I knew this season wouls be active no matter what people thought of this season at first.Allanjeffs 00:50, October 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * NHC doesn't even forecast a hurricane out of this one...Then again, it might be only temporary. Other than some blustery conditions for parts of the Lesser Antillies, this storm shouldn't be to much of a hassle for the folks there. Hell, I'd be surprised if this becomes a Tomas at the very least. And the models are picking up on additional activity after this. As Allan said above, we could get two more storms in the next week per what GFS says, and if that happens, we would be at 19 storms, for 3 straight years. If we get two more storms in October and two more in November, we would run the table, which is what last year and the year before were so agonizingly close to acomplishing. The one main thing that sets this year apart from the two previous years IMO is the lack of a significantly high death toll, which is good. Although the Atlantic has been very active in the past few years, the death tolls from storms in the past 3 years just kept getting lower and lower with every season. 2010>2011>2012. I could care less about the damage caused since it will be rebuilt anyways. I don't know how long the luck streak will live on, but sooner or later, the U.S. will get hit by another massive major hurricane like the 2004-2005 majors that hit the country, and like I've said before, people will get complacent if we go too many years without a strong U.S. major hurricane. Sure we've had Gustav, Ike, Irene, and Isaac since 2005, but all of them could've been much worse than they actually were, and they were nothing compared to the 2004-2005 monsters. On one dreadful day though, that luck will run out, just like it did before... Ryan1000 00:55, October 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Meh. I though we were gonna run the table in 2010 but just like in 1995, nothing happened in November. Only two seasons have ever run the table, so I seriously doubt it'll happen this year. October has exceeded my expectations, however. We've incredibly already had more storms this month than we did in September, though Leslie spent the majority of its life in September. Also, Irene killed 56 people, Ryan, more than Charley or Frances, and caused $15.6 billion in damage in the United States alone. It was the fifth costliest hurricane of all time. It may not have been a major hurricane in terms of intensity, but it sure was a major hurricane in terms of destruction. Irene's 47 US deaths were more than Wilma's 36, Charley's 30, and weren't far short of Ivan's 54. Only four of the "2004-2005 monsters" killed more people in the US (Frances, Ivan, Katrina and Rita) and nearly all of Rita's 120 and Frances' 48 were indirect deaths. Storms like Katrina, Wilma, Andrew and Ike are watershed events. Catastrophes like those are fortunately extremely rare and usually occur only once a generation, though lately we've averaged roughly two per decade. And the fact that fewer people are dying doesn't necessarily mean storms are any less destructive. A lot of it has to do with whether or not people heed the warnings. -- SkyFury 06:56, October 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * I wasn't really refering to damage since I know they were still destructive, and damage is rebuilt over time anyways. Lives can't be rebuilt. 2010-2012 was not anywhere close to being as deadly as 2004-2005. Katrina killed over 1,800 people, though as you said, not everyone heeds warnings, Stan killed over 1,500 people from deadly flooding in Guatemala, and Jeanne killed 3,000 people in Haiti. Although not all of them came with prior warning and not all of them hit well-prepared places, 3,000 deaths is 3,000 deaths no matter what. None of 2010, 2011, or 2012 even approached 1,000 deaths, but then again, over 400 deaths in all 3 seasons combined is still not negligible. And Irene was the 7th costliest hurricane of all time, not 5th, since Irene caused 15.6 billion in damage at the time in 2011, and damage at the time isn't the proper way to determine damage. Using inflation for today's dollars is the better way to calculate damage, not damage at the time, so Charley and Ivan are 5th and 6th, respectively, because they did more damage than Irene in today's dollars, and Ivan alone caused 20 billion in total damage at the time anyways, not just 13 billion. I know not everything has missed the United States, but still, almost all of the storms that hit the U.S, or anywhere in the Atlantic for that matter, could've been much worse than they were in the past few years. Like you said last year, Irene could've easily been a 100 billion dollar disaster for the big apple had that dry air from Georgia not infiltrated at the last minute. Had that dry air not been in the GOM in the heart of 2008, Gustav could've been much stronger when it hit Louisiana and Ike would've been a re-1900 for Galveston. And had the heart of the Atlantic not had as much shear as it did in the past few years, some of the epic fails we saw could've been devastating storms. While we haven't gotten 100% lucky, the Atlantic hasn't been hit as hard as it otherwise could've been. Ryan1000 11:51, October 13, 2012 (UTC)


 * What two season have run the table?only 2005 have do it if you are including 1933 it was discover by the NHC in its re-analysis project that it only have 20 storms.Allanjeffs 15:11, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

It wouldn't surprise me if Rafael (back on topic) doesn't become a hurricane, but there is always the possibility of flooding in parts of the Lesser Antillies. I know that not everyone values deaths the same everywhere, but 2004 and 2005 had over 3,000 deaths each and that's that. 2010 had over 250 deaths, which is bad, but not as bad as 2004-05. 2011 had about 120 deaths, which again, isn't negligible but not as bad as 2004-05, let alone 2010. 2012 had over 60 deaths thus far, which is lower than 2011, 2010, and 04-05, but still isn't nothing. It's better that the number of deaths overall have dropped from year to year, but still sad to see that the death toll isn't 0. I knew 1933 had 21 operationally, but yeah, one of the storms was deemed to not be a tropical cyclone in post-analysis, like 1950's "Mike" and 1966's "Kendra". Ryan1000 17:26, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

What happen was that they discover that two were the same tropical cyclone and that one that affect Honduras and Belize was a td instead of a ts but they discover a new one so that is why it 20.Allanjeffs 18:31, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah, one wasn't a TC by itself. There are a few times when the opposite happened, when it was originally thought to be one storm but in reanalysis it was two different storms, like Typhoon Vera in 1986 and Tropical Storm Ione in 1970 EPac season. Ryan1000 19:17, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">ts rafael. gonna be hurricane. i think major. gonna go canada. goes to europe. eats the krabby patty. he'll get a wimbledon trophy and a late-arrived london 2012 gold medal (ye ik the olympics are over) for tennis. agreed ppl? 188.223.248.201 20:53, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Liz, Rusty Rafael won't be even close to a major. The Krabby Patty has pretty much dissected. I doubt Rafael will make it to Europe. But we'll see what "Sandy Cheeks" will do... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:54, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Never say never Andrew Rafael may pull a Michael.expect the unexpect it from the tropics Paul also have a great chance of becoming a major RI will probably start soon with Paul.Allanjeffs 21:39, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

I wouldn't rule out major hurricane strength with Rafael, but if it does make it, it'll be under a stronger influence from the approaching cold front and will probrably miss Bermuda to the east if it becomes a MH. I also do not expect it to become a major hurricane before it leaves the Lesser Antillies. It's certainly not impossible it could become one after that though. If it becomes one, I'd take it to 120-125 mph at it's peak. Ryan1000 22:12, October 13, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Hasn't been much updating on this page as of late. Rafael's a 70 mph TS right now. At anytime...He should be a hurricane. Ryan1000 10:57, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The ninth hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season has come.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 17, 2012101512,, BEST, 0, 226N, 656W, 65, 983, HU<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, 64, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 300, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RAFAEL, D,Allanjeffs 12:40, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Now we just need to wait for NHC to confirm it. I think it could get a little stronger, but at this time, I would rule out Rafael becoming a major. Shear will be on the rise by tomorrow, so by then it should be weakening. Ryan1000 16:35, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Rafael might be retire from what I am seeing has cause a lot of devastation in the islands specially in Guadalupe..Might be another Klaus.Allanjeffs 18:40, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"> Yeah, like I thought earlier, even a TS like Rafael could be problematic for the Lessers, but it all depends. He lingered for quite a while over the islands. Martinique was the island that Klaus hit for France to request his retirement. Guadelupe is also a French territory and they might nominate Rafael if damages were bad enough there too. Ophelia of last year couldn't have been retired by them since Dominica, the island she hit, isn't a French territory, but an independent country from Britan (1978). We'll see. Still not a hurricane though... Ryan1000 21:58, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Rafael
Rafael, now a hurricane. Winds: 75 mph Pressure: 974 mbar. STO12 (talk) 22:59, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

That's very low for a C1 system. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:09, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Now officially a hurricane.May be stronger than forecast I say a peak at cat 2 intensity or a high upper cat 1.Allanjeffs 23:12, October 15, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 85 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:07, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Rafael might try to make it to cat 2 or 3 intensity, but how much damage it does to Bermuda could play a role in its (potential) retirement, if the flooding in the Lessers wasn't enough. It's heading North-Northeast now, so it might miss Bermuda to the east, but it's still big enough to affect the island significantly. Ryan1000 08:48, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Down to 969 mb. BTW, assuming Rafael doesn't make it to Category 2 status, it'll be the third Category 1 storm this year with a pressure less than 970 mb. Has this ever happened three times in one year? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:47, October 16, 2012 (UTC)

Technically, no, but that type of record is a little trivial anyways. It seems Rafael missed Bermuda. At most they got some heavy rainfall, but likely no severe damage. Ryan1000 01:59, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Probably now extratropical. Well, just by looking at wind field analysis you could determine that. GFS indicates that Rafael will have a large circulation (>500 miles) by day five. Starts weakening, and degenerates into a trough over France. Kiewii! 18:51, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael
Declared extratropical while still at hurricane strength. --HurricaneMaker99 20:51, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

the first time I see a the NHC making a hurricane extratropical generally they weaken the storm to ts first before declaring it.Allanjeffs 22:10, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It's not the first time it happened, but either way, he wasn't too much of a hassle. NHC forecasted it to head south in 4 days or so, but I don't think this will pull a Nadine and last endlessly over the northeastern Atlantic. The next area of disturbed weather is going to be forming in the Southwest Caribbean later this week or next week. That could become Sandy. Ryan1000 22:19, October 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah all the models develop it some take tracks to Florida and others to Cuba and intesity varies some also show Tony and others even show Valerie for the third time in History I think we will reach 20 name storms.Allanjeffs 21:59, October 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">@Allan: What was the third time? I know there was 2005 (28 storms) and 1933 (20 storms), but it's only happened twice in the North Atlantic (but 2010 and 2011 both technically had 20 storms if the South Atlantic is counted). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:29, October 18, 2012 (UTC)

He said "for the third time", Andrew, which would be counting this year if we get there. Intensity forecasts for future Sandy (or Tony) vary, but from what I'm seeing, the models forecast two storms to come in the next week from a powerful pulse from the Madden-Julian Oscillation. One will be a weak TS and head out to sea like Patty did. The other could be a sizeable hurricane heading through Jamacia, Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, and eventually, possibly Florida. That area of thunderstorms is still too far out to tell what will happen to it, but if two storms develop as the Euro and GFS suggest, we will have back to back to back seasons of 19 storms each. 2011 only ended at the "S" name, but 94L was discovered to be a TS in post-season, so everything should've been moved back one storm each. Also, there are a few storms this year, like 98L of late July (which even I doubted at first) and 94L of late September, which could be upgraded to TS's in post-season. If both of those are upgraded, we would be at 19 storms right now anyways. However, all of this is a bit too far ahead to see for sure what will happen. Speaking of upgrades, I wonder when the NHC will release the TCR's for storms this year. They haven't released any of them since they finished Aletta a while back. Ryan1000 00:14, October 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Rafael is currently a strong (965 mbar) extratropical cyclone moving toward southeast. Isaac829  E-Mail  03:32, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

AOI.Central Atlantic
On second thought, maybe this could become Sandy first. 10%. Ryan1000 17:04, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one is most likely to become Tony instead of Sandy. This one is in a worse environment than the other. STO12 (talk) 18:10, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't rule it out, but this one indeed could become Sandy first. We don't know though Otto. We all thought 98L would become Patty first, but 97L miraculously made it to Patty before 98L made it to Rafael. Same could happen with this one. We'll see though. Ryan1000 19:20, October 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * For me, I agree with Otto, but this thing could beat the other AOI to Sandy. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:02, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This AOI definitely has a chance to beat the other one to the name period, but with regards to overall peak intensity, I would be much more concerned about the Caribbean AOI than this one. Ryan1000 23:26, October 19, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
And it's finally invested. Both 90L and 99L should become Sandy and Tony, but maybe not in that order. Ryan1000 15:21, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Organization improves...30%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:45, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Might become something after all.Allanjeffs 00:14, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I knew this would become something. Tony is on his way... Ryan1000 01:32, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Don`t count on him until he has form it may very well start to become disorganized.even though I am rooting fort this to become Tony so we can 19 storms.Allanjeffs 02:23, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

I'm definitely not writing this one off yet. Nothing has changed since last night though. Both invests are at 60 and 30% respectively. However, NHC expects conditions to become more favorable later today and tomorrow until it moves out to sea in the middle of this week, when it'll be too late for it to become named. I still expect this to become Tony. Ryan1000 11:21, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

This one is becoming better organized might become a td tomorrow or Tueday.Allanjeffs 22:57, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 40%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:40, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yep, I still expect this one to develop. It probrably will become Tony tomorrow or Tuesday, assuming 99L beats this to being named Sandy. However, we can't be sure of it yet. Ryan1000 23:49, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Up to 50%Allanjeffs 12:51, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Just a little more, 90L... Ryan1000 16:18, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

up to 70 Tony its on its way.Allanjeffs 17:51, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * Time is very much of the essence for 90L. It only has a 24-36 hour window to become Tony (assuming TD18 becomes Sandy first). From what I've seen, it seems to be making the most of it. -- SkyFury 17:58, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * AFCF has 19L. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:53, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Almost here... Ryan1000 20:17, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Its td 19 may become Tony soon we get two systems only today.now we almost have 19 ts.At this rate I think we may reach Valerie.Allanjeffs 20:32, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:37, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think we will get to William. We can run the table, and I wouldn't be surprised if we do. Ryan1000 20:46, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I agree I think we may reach William. I think we may have one storm in the NW or SW Caribbean and one like Sean last year.and we could always get one in reanalysis projects.Allanjeffs 20:57, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Its becoming better organized might become Tony at the next advisory unless it becomes disorganized.Allanjeffs 05:03, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

It'll probrably become named later today. Ryan1000 10:54, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

The NHC really don`t want to upgrade this system they say its not looking better and it has become really organized I really want an Ascat right now in the storm so they can upgrade it.Allanjeffs 21:34, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It should be Tony anytime now. It has enough organization to become Tony, but the NHC is too defiant to upgrade this to Tony. I hope it becomes Tony tomorrow. Ryan1000 23:17, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">ATCF says Tony. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:38, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 19, 2012102400,, BEST, 0, 264N, 498W, 35, 1004, TS<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TONY<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, M, Finally we have nineteen for second chance in history the other being 2010 that I think we might use the 21letter of the list.Allanjeffs 01:15, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Hm? It makes us 3rd most active, tied with 4 other seasons, two of which were the past two seasons and surpassing 1969's 18. We can make it to William, but Sandy's not strengthening as fast as I was fearing. Maybe I was right the first time after all. Also, first time we had 19 storms for 3 straight years. Ryan1000 01:21, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Sorry I got confuse I mean it would be the 2nd time in my opinion that we could reach the 21 names of the list the other I think but couldn`t reach was 2010.Allanjeffs 02:38, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Tony
Finally! -- SkyFury 03:14, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

we already got 5 storms in October 2 in November doesn`t seem impossible.Allanjeffs 04:42, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

We did it!!! Back to back to back seasons of 19 storms! Wow!!! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:54, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Woah, Tony's looking better than ever now. It might even have a shot at hurricane status like Chris unexpectedly did. Ryan1000 16:14, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

...Or not. Losing itself after looking better earlier today. Ryan1000 00:36, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Tony
The Hawk flies no more. --HurricaneMaker99 20:51, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

AOI.Central Caribbean
Make that two. Also at 10%. So which will become named first? I think it'll be this one, but ATL is back in gear again. This and the above AOI are future Sandy and Tony in my book. Ryan1000 18:01, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * This one should become Sandy first. It is in an increasingly favorable environment and should begin to slowly develop. The other could possibly become Tony if conditions light up. STO12 (talk) 18:11, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some of the model runs are apocalyptic with this storm, but as I said, I think both of these will become named storms. I honestly could care less whether this is Sandy or Tony, becuase I don't like the looks on this thing. Today is the secondary peak of the Atlantic season. From here on out, conditions should start going downhill in the basin, but maybe we can sneak two more storms in until October is over. If we get two more in November after these two develop, we'll run the table. Ryan1000 19:20, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * IMO, this AOI will be the one that makes us hit the 'S' name in back to back to back years, since the NHC says conditions are gradually favorable. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:54, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * However, that doesn't discourage me from giving up on the AOI in the Central Atlantic. If it becomes named, we'll have 19 storms for 3 straight years, though technically not the "T" name because 2011 only got 19 from the post-season upgrade on 94L. Ryan1000 21:18, October 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * This one will probably be Sandy but the NHC has say that condition are going to be more conductive for the Aoi in the Central Atlantic so it may be Tony and I think we might get Valerie if this two systems develop.Allanjeffs 22:46, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * That's why I said it's not impossible for this to be Tony and the Atlantic AOI to become Sandy. But it depends, because things could change. To be honest, I actually think that the AOI in the Central Atlantic could become Sandy first, but this one should become much stronger in the long run. The AOI in the Central Atlantic shouldn't get stronger than 50-60 mph. Some models already suggest this could become a near-major hurricane in ~5 days. This storm is the one we need to watch out for, but I expect us to get 2 more storms out of both these AOI's before October is over. After that, we'd need a 2-storm November to run the table. I think a 1-storm November is most reasonable, but it's not impossible we could get to William. Ryan1000 23:26, October 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * up to 20% I think this one will move into Central America the one that the gfs is developing develops next week near friday or thursday is not the same one.Allanjeffs 00:02, October 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ah. That being said, that storm would be Valerie, assuming this and the above AOI become Sandy and Tony respectively. Ryan1000 01:07, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. Actually, SHIPS only sees this becoming a moderate tropical storm, not a hurricane, before moving into Central America. Meanwhile, the AOI in the Central Atlantic is up to 20%, and may be invested soon itself. Ryan1000 12:49, October 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Whoa! Up to 60%! Did not expect this. The models aren't strengthening it much but are taking it generally toward south Florida. The global models are even taking it east of Florida over eastern Cuba. -- SkyFury 18:22, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy here we come! STO12 (talk) 18:51, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Ugggh. I want next year's season to be more active, because they have funny names like Humberto and Olga and Dorian and Nestor!! I want humberto to be a massive cat 5 if I had my own way bc it is a funny name :( But.... I see sandy becoming a major? I am seeing her like Rina (the Mexican hurricane with the Indian/Japanese name?)


 * 1) <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:sans-serif;line-height:19.200000762939453px;">Rina is a female name of Hindu origin meaning "Queen"


 * 1) <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:sans-serif;line-height:19.200000762939453px;">Rina is a female name of Japanese origin, where it is proportionately used the most in the twentieth century

<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:sans-serif;line-height:19.200000762939453px;">Ok anyway.... So... I now think the list would get up to Sandy? Sandy Cheeks much? Will she see her Danny (Tony?) I think not, but good luck to Sandy! 188.223.248.201 19:09, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">And you thought 2012 was over Eric. Far from it in my book. =) As I said, both this and 90L will probrably become named storms, though 90L will take a little longer. And no Liz, this won't do much, I don't think. Initially I thought 99L would become something big in the Caribbean, but now I'm starting to reconsider that. It'll probrably be just a heavy rainmaker for much of the western Caribbean. Conditions aren't favorable for explosive intensification with this storm, but they are favorable enough for it to become named at the very least. Ryan1000 19:36, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Actually Ryan some of the models are strengthening this fast Sandy may become our second major hurricane .third in my book I think Gordon was one.they dive possible Sandy in the southwestern Caribbean then taking it straight to Cuba like Paloma.stay tuned I am not sure if 90L will be named.Allanjeffs 19:58, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Here comes Sandy Cheeks! So, she'll probably give rain to Nicaragua. And Eric, how's your late season prediction going? Doesn't seem too accurate. Off topic, but does anyone think we will hit William this year? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:08, October 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * After appearing to be developing back in September and into early October, El Nino has retreated. Shear was prohibitive for much of September but has significantly abated. The activity in the Caribbean this late in the season is extremely unusual for what was supposed to be an El Nino year. This tells me that El Nino is simply non-existent. These are the things that make forecasting so difficult. I don't think anybody expected El Nino to be this much of a no show in October. The Climate Prediction Center is saying that this is confounding their winter forecast, leading to higher than usual uncertainty. I still highly doubt we'll run the table. I thought we'd do it in 2010, when conditions were much more favorable, but November was dead quiet. Models don't do a lot with this, but they do develop it. It could be a rainmaker for Jamaica and eastern Cuba next week. Still not sold on 90L, it's got a long way to go if it wants a name. -- SkyFury 21:04, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Actually Eric, I expected us to get an active October. Just because we didn't have a record September in named storms doesn't mean October will be less active (*cough*2005). We will likely get two more storms from these two invests and then we'll need just two storms in November for us to run the table. I wouldn't rule 90L out though. I do expect 90L to develop Eric, but it'll just take a few days. It wouldn't completely surprise me if it doesn't become named, but I am not quitting on it yet. It just needs a little bit more organization and 5 mph more for it to become Tony, and because NHC expects shear to decrease by later today/tomorrow, it wouldn't surprise me if it's named by then. Allan, the conditions in the western Caribbean Sea are not the same now as they were in 2001, 2005, or 2008. 99L does have some shear and dry air to deal with, so I highly doubt Sandy-to be will make it past category 1 intensity, if that. Most of the models take 99L (Sandy) moving west, maybe slightly south of due west and becoming named at the least, but then the trough off the eastern seaboard will dive down and pull it northward towards Jamacia and eastern Cuba, then out to sea, being sheared all along the way. I see no reason why it should do anything else. As of now actually, NONE of the models expect this to be a monstrous category 4 or 5 in the Caribbean sea, ect, so don't count on that happening with this storm. HWRF and GFDL are the closest models to exploding this in the Caribbean, each making it about cat 3, but I can't be inclined to believe them just yet. However, no matter how you justify it, 18 storms is 18 storms. And for 3 straight years too. That's just downright incredible. I can't believe we're about to do it. Ryan1000 23:34, October 20, 2012 (UTC)

Better convection...70%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:30, October 21, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Here comes Sandy... Ryan1000 15:22, October 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * This forecast has gotten interesting. Most of the models have this becoming a very large, deep system in the western Atlantic, potentially affecting the east coast. At the very least, it looks like this storm is gonna be a big rainmaker for the Caribbean islands and a big wave maker for the east coast. Also of note, the GFS also develops 90L and appears to have it remaining tropical all the way to Portugal. This is gonna be an interesting week. -- SkyFury 01:40, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Told you not to give up on 90L. In the case of this, I noticed some models take this storm recurving towards the east coast, but I don't see why it should. I think the trough should recurve this storm out to sea before it reaches anyone. Wave action will be heavy, but this storm shouldn't be a historic storm for the eastern seaboard like the 1991 Perfect Storm. We could easily make it to 19 storms though. Amazing. Ryan1000 03:08, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * I didn't say I'd given up on 90L, I said it had a long way to go and I still believe that. The window is closing for 90L as shear is expected to increase in a few days. In any case, it's not gonna hit anything. My primary concern is 99L. -- SkyFury 05:05, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:29, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Up to 80%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:29, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen
And now numbered. Likely to become Sandy soon. Ryan1000 16:18, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * NHC describes conditions as "highly conducive", saying there is a 50-50 chance of RI within the next 24-36 hours. Given these conditions, it should become Sandy later today and possibly reach hurricane strength before striking Jamaica and eastern Cuba in a couple of days. An extremely odd evolution is playing out in the models. Many of them have TD18/Sandy taking on hybrid characteristics once it reaches the western Atlantic. This almost reminds me of Noel back in 2007 that caused major flooding in Haiti and evolved into a strong extratropical storm over the open Atlantic. This storm could wind up being very similar, though hopefully causing less death and destruction. -- SkyFury 18:05, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * UGHHH! -_- Not another hurricane again, for God's sake! When will these hurricanes end?!?! but... BRING IT ON SANDY I'm seeing her like a rina :| I WANT NEXT YRS SEASON MORE ACTIVE! !-_-! BETTER NAMES! Anyway.... so, Im seeing sandy blow up to a major or a 2 188.223.248.201 18:37, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sandy

 * the 18 of the season has come.<span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;">...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY....Allanjeffs 20:59, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * <span style="font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;">Model are Predicting RI with this one may approach Major hurricane status as it approach Jamaica.Allanjeffs 21:07, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * The reason why I don't think Sandy will become very strong is the time frame it has. It only has about one day until it's going to encounter unfavorable conditions from the trough off the east coast. And because it has a very small circulation it is very vulnerable to even slight changes in outer atmospheric changes. If that trough wasn't off the eastern seaboard, this storm would be able to explode to a cat 4 or 5 with very little effort. However, since it doesn't have a lot of time, I don't think she'll get past category 1 strength, let alone TS intensity. Ryan1000 20:17, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:monospace;text-align:center;"> Oh not again! How are we ever gonna get a nice 2013 Season? Humberto, Dorian, Nestor and those funny names if this year is sooooo active? Hopefully, its looking like Sandy would be a weakling. Weak Rina. Weak Paula. Tropical storm only. Get it? 188.223.248.201 21:12, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

It might explode, but...It still has only 2 days until NHC expects landfall in Jamacia. And we don't want it to explode because that would lead to Sandy harming people in Jamacia. =( Ryan1000 21:31, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

I see a re-Katrina (1981) or Irene (1999) from this. BTW, I think both 2012 and 2013 will have 21 named storms. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:00, October 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * 19 has been the magic number for the past couple of years. We're staring down the barrel of three straight years of 19 storms. Unbelievable. It's gonna be very interesting to watch and see what Sandy does over the next few days. -- SkyFury 23:48, October 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy's got a bit of organizing to do before she can do much else. She's likely going to become a strong tropical storm at the least, but I'm not sure about her becoming a hurricane yet. She's still in the formative stage atm, but tonight, things are going to get interesting. She could get much better organized, but by Wensday morning she'll be running into wind shear. Jamacia better keep a very close eye on this storm. Sandy could be a very nasty surprise for the folks there, like Paloma was to the Caymans and Cuba in November 2008. Ryan1000 00:00, October 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Hmm.... Isaac829  E-Mail  00:04, October 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some models do see Sandy becoming a large, powerful storm off the east coast and at the same time, they see the cold front reversing direction and going back over the great lakes. If that happens, New England might get slammed by this thing. And for a storm this late in the season, that's gonna be a very nasty surprise for the northeast. It would make the 1991 "perfect" storm look like chicken sh!t. I want Sandy to follow the paths of other storms this late in the season and head out to sea, but not everyone expects that. Currently, I'm worried about Jamacia. However, it's not out of the question New England could get hit in the long run. Ryan1000 00:19, October 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Cold fronts don't reverse direction, at least not on this planet. Yeah the model forecasts are kinda scary right now. The Euro has lost its mind, having cold fronts going in reverse and bringing Sandy into New England as a Day After Tomorrow-esque 926mb monster. Pretty sure that's not gonna happen (unless the Mayans were right all along lol). More within the realm of possibility is the GFS solution, which brings Sandy right over Bermuda as a major hurricane. I seriously doubt, however, shear conditions will allow it to be that strong at that point in its life. The dynamical models have more realistic solutions, showing Sandy peaking as a Cat 1-2 in the Bahamas before weakening as it turns toward Bermuda. -- SkyFury 08:18, October 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I know the Euro is a bit nuts right now, but it's not impossible to happen. I just don't think it's gonna happen though. I also wouldn't be inclined to believe the GFS thus far. I can't expect Sandy to be a major hurricane when it reaches Bermuda, unless it pulls a Wilma and becomes a cat 5 later today lol. I expect her to become a cat 1 now, maybe cat 2, but a weakening TS when she reaches Bermuda. Ryan1000 10:54, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

Just so everyone knows, latest advisory is out, winds have been upped by only 5 miles, from 45 to 50 mph, but the pressure dropped 5 milibars, from 998 to 993. Something's telling me she's exploding in that tiny center of convection right now...Not good for Jamacia. =( Ryan1000 15:02, October 23, 2012 (UTC)

She is really strengthening Jamaica should prepare for a cat 1.Allanjeffs 01:35, October 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now a hurricane (as of latest NHC advisory)


 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;line-height:normal;">...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH... ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...


 * 11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 24


 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;white-space:nowrap;">Location: 17.1°N 76.7°W

<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;white-space:nowrap;">Moving: NNE at 13 mph <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;white-space:nowrap;">Min pressure: 973 mb <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;white-space:nowrap;">Max sustained: 80 mph


 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;line-height:normal;">Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Sandy
See Anonymous 2.0's post above. --HurricaneMaker99 16:07, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think it'll likely head northwards through Jamacia, Cuba, and the Bahamas and then head out to sea. I can't buy the Euro solution, it just doesn't seem realistic. Ryan1000 16:14, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I am sorry to tell you Ryan but now most of the models are trending west even the gfs is moving west USA may see a landfall of Sandy if it continues.Allanjeffs 20:38, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

That's really discouraging...Sandy caused enough damage in the Caribbean already. All this thing really needs to do is head out to sea like most of the other storms this year did. The Northeast doesn't need to see another Irene-like storm, especially at this time of year. Go and stay out to sea, Sandy. No one wants any more damage from you. Ryan1000 21:58, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

I read Sandy has caused some damage in Jamaica and in Haiti and looks like RI is happening right now with might be a cat 2 or 3 landfall in Cuba if it continues.Allanjeffs 22:30, October 24, 2012 (UTC)

I think she is major or very close I knew she would strengthen fast.Allanjeffs 23:31, October 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Raw ADJ T# of 7.2! Isaac829 E-Mail  00:11, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Land interaction with Jamacia actually slowed her down a bit; she looks a little less organized on the latest sattelite pics. I think she'll pass over Cuba as a category 1, likely not more than 90 mph, and then head out to sea, but beach erosion and high surf are going to be problematic. I'm still not buying a U.S. landfall from Sandy yet. I still think she'll avoid landfall in the lower 48 states. Ryan1000 00:36, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * ATCF says 90 mph, 964 mbar; if that pressure goes even the teeniest bit lower, we'll have the strongest storm of the season. Fourth C1 with a pressure below 970 mbar... why? Isaac made sense because of its huge size, and Leslie made the cut at the last second due to, I presume, baroclinic effects as it was undergoing extratropical transition. Were Rafael and Sandy large enough like Isaac was? Sandy looks positively MASSIVE on satellite imagery, but her actual bite doesn't seem to reach out very far by comparison... --HurricaneMaker99 01:25, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy could potentially harm the United States. Models are indicating that Sandy could move towards the north and then turn to the west and reach New England with dangerous impacts. It is still to early to tell, but that does not mean ignore what it could possibly do. STO12 (talk) 02:02, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Correction HM99, 954 mbars. I tend to agree with the models that take it out to sea. I'm not saying it won't hit New England; I just don't want it to happen and I believe it will miss making landfall in the U.S. At the very least it will cause heavy rainfall, surf, and beach erosion. However, I don't think this storm will make landfall in the lower 48 as of yet. I think the front will beat it and keep her offshore. As of now, damage in Jamacia doesn't seem to be too bad, especially considering it was only a Cat 1. Had she exploded to a Cat 3 or stronger before her landfall, she could've been much worse for them. Haiti might have gotten flooded a little but probrably not as severely as Isaac did earlier this year. Ryan1000 03:04, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * I was blown away by the latest advisory. ATCF did indeed say 964. Either that's a typo or Sandy is going apesh*t. 954?! From a Category 1? Are you kidding me? I thought Isaac had shown more than enough in that regard, but Sandy basically just took what he accomplished and shoved it right up his ass. With a pressure as low as 954 mbar, I refuse to believe that Sandy's winds are as low as 90 mph. Note that the latest NHC forecast discussion mentioned satellite intensity estimates of at least 100 kt/115 mph. I can't say I blame them. Sandy's current satellite appearance reminds me of Gustav when he was exploding at the end of August in 2008. Gustav was on the doorstep of Category 5 intensity by the time it hit Cuba. Sandy has no chance of reaching that sort of intensity before landfall - it doesn't have nearly as much time over water as Gustav did - so we should be thankful for that. I don't buy that this is a 90 mph storm, though. Given the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS, blended with the advisory intensity, I'd stab a guess that Sandy is a mid-to-high level Category 2 right now, with winds of 105-110 mph. I think this will become our second major at some point, either immediately before or not long after landfall in extreme eastern Cuba. --HurricaneMaker99 04:11, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">She really is a sweetheart doesn`t it she is really massive almost every cat1 of the season has pressure of cat 2 hurricane or 3 with the exception of Chris.I am not sure which if she is going to make landfall or not its a just a moment of wait and see what happens.I think she will be a two at landfall in Cuba.Allanjeffs 03:32, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * This storm is amazing. 35mb drop in 24 hrs is damn impressive. We better all be grateful that Cuba is about to stick its foot out in front of Sandy, because land is the only thing that's gonna stop her. This thing is absolutely exploding right now but it may hit Cuba before the winds have a chance to respond. If it wasn't hitting land right now, Sandy could've easily become a Cat 4 with a pressure down in the 930's...possibly even stronger. Regardless, Cuba is gonna feel this one. -- SkyFury 03:54, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy has really strengthen she is now an upper cat 2 just shy of major hurricane status as it going to cross the coast of Cuba in a few minutes.Allanjeffs 05:25, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * A 114 mph wind gust was just reported in Cuba. -- SkyFury 06:03, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Most of the models are now in agreement with Sandy being pushed westward by the ridge axis and tugged northwest by that trough forming ahead of a cold front over the US Northeast just before Halloween. The cold front might absorb Sandy then turn into a backdoor warm front, dropping warm air on top of cold air over warm water in the Great Lakes region, creating an inversion and possible lake-effect snow. In fact, I anticipate that Chicago, Ohio, upstate New York, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, parts of Southwestern Ontario and even Kentucky will get appreciable amounts of snow. Areas like Maine, Halifax NS, Massachussetts, Vermont, New Hampshire and the Richelieu River Valley of Quebec will get torrents of rain if this solution pans out, and the storm could actually stick around for a couple days, and make landfall at around 950 mbar. It also has to cross the Gulf Stream before it collides with cold air being funnelled south from a Greenland High - in fact, this totally replaces the Bermuda High as Sandy and a hybird low that absorbs Tony displaces the upper-midlatitude Atlantic high. Oh yeah, remember that gigantic Nor'easter in late October 2011 that absorbed the remnants of Rina and then dumped up to 31 inches of snow over Mass.? It's happened before. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane (talk) 06:45, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it's definitely going to be an interesting Halloween in the northeast, as it was with the Perfect Storm 21 years ago. That portion of the forecast is extremely complex and uncertainty is quite high. We really don't know how the various synoptic scale systems will evolve. If Sandy maintains more of a warm core, it will be more inclined to stay further to the east as a trough advancing toward the east coast will pick it up and carry it off to the northeast. If it becomes baroclinic, however, it will likely slow down enough to be bypassed and blocked by the trough and forced to the northwest towards New England. It's almost impossible to tell with any certainty how Sandy's core structure and forward motion will evolve 4-5 days out. -- SkyFury 07:26, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * 105 mph/960 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:10, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

Wow, I never expected Sandy to blow up so fast. Cuba took a hit from this storm, hopefully not too bad, but Sandy looks like a queen on the latest sattelite imagery. I'd be surprised if she doesn't become a major hurricane later today. She's probrably going to parallel the eastern seaboard, but overall impacts in the northeast are not certain as of yet. The "perfect storm" never made landfall and only paralleled part of the coast before becoming a hurricane and hitting Halifax. This storm might make landfall in the lower 48, but if it does, the question is, where? Even if it doesn't, it'll be at least a severe beach erosion, surf, and wind threat because she's so big. Ryan1000 11:29, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

I am almost sure that Sandy will be upgrade to a major even one of the discussions of the NHC say she could have before landfall.what an interesting storm to track. up next are the Bahamas.Allanjeffs 12:46, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think she wasn't one when she hit, but I think she'll be upgraded to one soon either way. The Bahamas are going to get some flooding and wind damage from Sandy, but it likely won't be too severe for them, especially considering how prepared the archapelago is for hurricanes. The models are conflicting with the track of Sandy. GFS sees Sandy moving past the east coast and eventually ending up in Maine as a strong hurricane, but the Euro model sees her hitting Delaware as a monstrous hurricane and driving a massive storm surge up the Delaware river that could reach even Philadelphia. I don't like either scenario. BTW, I made a post-season changes section below if anyone thinks NHC missed anything this year. Sandy might be upgraded to a MH in post-season, if it isn't operationally. Ryan1000 14:01, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Shear is gonna progressively increase from here, so I don't think Sandy will restrengthen. It is possible, however, that it was a major hurricane before hitting Cuba. It wouldn't surprise me if it's upgraded in post analysis. And Ryan, even though the Pefect Storm never made landfall (it in fact never came within 200 miles of the coast) it still generated 30 foot waves along the Massachusetts coast and high winds. Seven people died on shore in addition to the six at sea. That's definitely something to keep in mind with Sandy as well. A northeast impact is looking increasingly likely, though she is unlikely to be tropical when that happens. The models have even shifted west a bit. -- SkyFury 15:35, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * The difference between Sandy and the perfect storm is now, I don't think sandy will completely miss land. The two most reliable models, the GFS and the Euro, both take it onshore. As I said Eric, beach erosion, rip currents, high winds and rain will definitely be felt, even though a landfall is not certain. The GFS sees Sandy making landfall in Maine several days from now as a large, powerful, storm that could combine with another system coming down from Canada to make for New England's wettest October on record. Damages could reach or exceed a billion dollars if that happens. The ECMWF, on the other hand, is flat out apocalyptic with Sandy. As I mentioned above, the Euro model takes Sandy making landfall in Delaware as a monstrous 940 mbar monster by monday. By then the tides will be at their highest in the month from the new moon and the storm surge from Sandy would be large enough to surge far up the Delaware river and could even flood Philadelphia. Damage if that happens would be several billion dollars. Granted the Euro might be overdoing Sandy's intensity, but it's not a good thing to see. I think it might end up between that, making landfall in Rhode Island or Massachusets as a large, powerful Cat 1 or TS. I don't want a landfall to happen, but the "missing the lower 48 completely" scenario is looking less and less likely with each passing advisory... Ryan1000 15:53, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * oh no!!! sandy going to ny!! like irene! :o will she be a major? she could! :( hope everyone stays safe... i think shell get retired.... replacement name shaniqua. anyone agrees?188.223.248.201 15:57, October 25, 2012 (UTC)

I'm not sure if she'll be retired yet, Liz, but she's already pushed her luck far enough with the damage she's done in the Caribbean already. I would place her chances of retirement at 40% for now, based on current damage figures in Cuba and Jamacia. If it hits the U.S. hard enough, she's gone. Ryan1000 17:13, October 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yeah I think it's becoming increasingly likely that the northeast will take a direct hit from this. GFS is now showing landfall on Long Island. I still think Sandy will be extratropical by the time it hits though. This event could be very reminiscent of Irene last year, affecting tens of millions of people. This could really get ugly. -- SkyFury 22:25, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * That would be two straight years wow I think Sandy will be retire and yes almost all if not every model are showing landfall from NC to Maine looks like the Northeast will take another hit hoping for the best for them.Allanjeffs 22:48, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Some news organizations are calling Sandy "Frankenstorm", lol. It'll be hitting them around Halloween, but if it comes by next Monday, then it'll be high tide and storm surge will be enormous. This storm isn't as harmless as I earlier thought it would be; this is starting to become a very scary storm. I hope we get the best case scenario out of Sandy, because she's not holding anything back. Ryan1000 23:41, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * And in other news the Gfs develop ts Valerie in 264 even though is far out it may very well develop even DR Masters say that one or two storms before the season end is possible and I agree with him I am hoping to reach William this year.Allanjeffs 23:51, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy is almost out for sure have already killed 12 in Cuba being the deadliest hurricane since Dennis of 2005 and it also has cause widespread devastation in the island so even if Sandy doesn`t make a direct landfall in the USA she will be gone.She also has killed 8 in Haiti and I think 2 in Jamaica and sadly I think the death toll will increase in the Islands as time pass.Allanjeffs 02:33, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * It seems she could be our second "S" retiree in history, and any future damage in the U.S. is likely going to seal her retirement. Retirement isn't certain as of yet, but it's getting more and more likely with increasing damage and deaths. Ryan1000 02:49, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * HPC is calling Sandy (and/or the low pressure) "Frankenstorm" too. Isaac829 E-Mail  04:38, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sandy appears to have lost herself in the latest few sattelite pics; she's now powered down to a category 1 hurricane. She might be only a TS when she moves into the northeast, or an extratropical cyclone, but it will still be a large, powerful storm when it comes ashore and it will be a big flood and wind threat for the northeast and mid-Atlantic. Ryan1000 11:37, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it may be a re-Irene/re-1991 Perfect Storm, it's now heading towards New England, as a tropical storm, I think. This storm may be our 2nd reasonable candidate for retirement for this year, aside from Isaac, as time passes. 112.201.160.146 14:28, October 26, 2012 (UTC)

Sandy is starting to look like a non-tropical cyclone now. It's still a hurricane, but it's circulation is displaced well south of the main convection. I wouldn't be surprised if she weakens to a TS later today. NHC has her restrengthening, but makes her an extratropical cyclone before landfall. Not to say that will make her less destructive, but it will slow her down a bit. Ryan1000 16:05, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Death toll just rocketed to 38, mainly in Haiti (25). --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * IMO Sandy has a better shot of being retire than Isaac now. sadly I think the casualities would increase now the death toll is at 42.Allanjeffs 20:44, October 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * That makes Sandy the deadliest 2012 AHS storm. I think Sandy will be like Hurricane Hazel in 1954. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:56, October 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * For what is worth I told you guys that the gfs develop Valerie yesterdat and it looks like it develops it in the Caribbean and makes her a strenghtening hurricane the season may go with 20 or even 21 if William manage to form what an incredible season has been.
 * Sandy will also be coming at Halloween, so it is possible she might get more media attention, and power outages might last into November 1st, so this could be a very serious hurricane for the folks in the mid-Atlantic. To be honest, I think both Sandy and Isaac will be retired, though I do agree Sandy seems to be more likely to retire than Isaac based on current damage figures in the Caribbean, and future potential damage in the U.S. Might weaken to a TS soon though, only to possibly regain hurricane strength later on. Ryan1000 23:01, October 26, 2012 (UTC)

I don't think people realize just how bad this could be. The latest runs of the Euro and GFS, the most reliable models we have, bring Sandy into New Jersey with a 947 and 949 mb pressure respectively. That makes Irene look like chicken sh!t. Irene hit Coney Island with 55 knot winds and 965 mb pressure and still caused an 8 foot surge on parts of Long Island. The 1993 Superstorm had a 960mb pressure and brought a 12 foot surge to the relatively flat Gulf Coast. The New York area is at the apex of a nearly perfect 'L' shaped coastline. Delaware and Chesapeake bays also act to funnel storm surge. High, lunar tides are expected right around landfall. If this forecast verifies, this storm would likely bring coastal conditions that exceed the severity of the 1993 storm along arguably the most densely populated stretch of coastline in the western Hemisphere. It could easily bring a 12-15 foot surge directly into New York Harbor. That would likely flood lower Manhattan. If it makes landfall in Maryland, like the Euro was saying earlier, it could bring a 15-18 foot surge into Delaware Bay and up the river to Philadelphia. That would probably cause the Delaware River to burst its banks, flooding Philadelphia and many other towns along the river. This is not to mention the devastation that could potentially be brought to the Jersey shore. Atlantic City, Asbury Park, and the barrier islands could see historic impacts from this storm. Now these are worst case scenarios but they are very much on the table. -- SkyFury 01:30, October 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Sandy is starting to look subtropical. Isaac829 E-Mail  01:56, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't want to believe the worst-case scenarios, but I can't deny the potential of mother nature. This is a pretty scary storm for something so late in the season. It's been a long time, if ever, that New England or the mid-Atlantic states have seen something like this at this time of year. I think Sandy could be a large wind and flood threat, but it's not expected to be stronger than a tropical storm at landfall. However, given Sandy's size right now, I honestly don't think it'll make a difference in the impacts. The IKE scale, which ranks the storm surge destructive potential of hurricanes, ranked Sandy a 4.2 out of 6 on the scale. And it's only a cat 1 too. The highest integrated kinetic energy of any Atlantic Hurricane comes from none other than Hurricane Ike himself of 2008, a 5.6 out of 6. This could be a severe storm for the northeast, and the fact it's coming near haloween time makes it that much more dangerous. Not as many people might leave because of the holiday, like with Cyclone Tracy when she hit Darwin on Christmas Eve 1974. Hopefully they will leave though...Sandy is only 2-3 days from landfall. Ryan1000 02:58, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Sandy (2nd time)
And it weakened to a TS. This probrably won't change the overall impacts very much, as I said above, but at least it's weakening. Ryan1000 12:01, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Sandy (2nd time)
...And not long after I said that, latest advisory re-upgrades it to a hurricane. Ryan1000 12:18, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

She is really playing with us.Allanjeffs 13:18, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical storm watches are up for Bermuda. Also, 2012 now has more deaths than last year (117 v. 114 in 2011). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:19, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Sadly, that is true. I didn't think we would see something like this so late in the season, but we did. Sandy has a few days until she comes ashore. Hopefully everyone will have left by then. Ryan1000 14:31, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">the death toll has increase to 34 in Haiti and they say there could be more sadly making the death toll climb to 51 looks like this year has surpass 2011 in deaths that is bad.Allanjeffs 17:21, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Sandy looks really scary. Gonna go to NY on Monday, according to the ITV news report, with a British who died in the Bahamas, R.I.P. to every victim who died in Sandy, and stay safe... My relatives and friends are in Sandy (NJ and NY) and they are stocking up.... Hope they all stay safe too! I mean, Sandy is gonna get retired 70% sure atm, with the replacement name Shaniqua (HOPEFULLY!) And, I heard, according to the BBC, Sandy is dubbed "Frankenstorm!" But... here is the death toll right now, R.I.P. everyone...

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I mean... <span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:small;line-height:16px;">As it turns out hurricane sandy<span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:arial,sans-serif;font-size:small;line-height:16px;"> has crabs. Just google "hurricane sandy funny" for funny photos of hurricane sandy, like Sandy Cheeks, Danny and Sandy, and Sandra Dee?!? SO STAY SAFE FROM FRANKENSTORM! :O and all I can say is.... OPPA SANDY STYLE! 188.223.248.201 17:53, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"> Got this from Huffpost on Frankenstorm:

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="color:rgb(34,34,34);font-family:Georgia,Century,Times,serif;font-size:15px;">The ocean will rise along the coast as Sandy makes it's way north, but the biggest coastal problems will come when the center makes landfall. We're unlikely to know exactly where that will be until Monday, but this is critical. The ocean will be pushed toward the coast north of that point and away to the south. The onshore flow of water is exaggerated where bays, inlets, or the shape of the coastline focus the water to make it rise even higher. The most prominent problem spot is New York City, where Long Island and New Jersey make an "L".

<p style="list-style:none;margin-top:8px;margin-bottom:15px;border-style:none;color:rgb(34,34,34);font-size:15px;font-family:Georgia,Century,Times,serif;">Raritan Bay and New York Bay and the south end of Manhattan are especially susceptible to rising water if the center of Sandy comes ashore in New Jersey or south. Much as we saw in Irene, it is potentially a monstrous problem due to the threat to NYC infrastructure and transportation. There are tough decisions ahead for the Mayor and his people.

<p style="list-style:none;margin-top:8px;margin-bottom:15px;border-style:none;color:rgb(34,34,34);font-size:15px;font-family:Georgia,Century,Times,serif;">Right now, the odds favor that southern track. The threat from this situation is serious as a heart attack for anybody near the rising water.

<p style="list-style:none;margin-top:8px;margin-bottom:15px;border-style:none;color:rgb(34,34,34);font-size:15px;font-family:Georgia,Century,Times,serif;">This morning, President Obama convened a call with Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, National Hurricane Center Director Dr. Rick Knabb, and Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan to receive an update on ongoing federal actions to prepare for Hurricane Sandy as it moves toward the United States mainland. The President reiterated his direction to Administrator Fugate to ensure that federal partners continue to bring all available resources to bear to support state and local responders in potentially affected areas along the Eastern seaboard as they prepare for severe weather. FEMA continues to work closely with federal partners, including the Departments of Defense and Energy, and remains in close contact with state and local partners in potentially impacted areas. At the requests of states, FEMA is proactively deploying Incident Management Assistance Teams to multiple states up and down the Eastern seaboard to ensure they have the support they need as they prepare for the storm. FEMA is holding daily operation briefings with emergency response teams in potentially affected states, and FEMA allies are joining state and local emergency operations centers in potentially impacted areas. FEMA is also prepositioning commodities including water, meals, blankets and other resources, should they be needed, at Incident Support Bases along the East Coast.

<p style="list-style:none;margin-top:8px;margin-bottom:15px;border-style:none;">Because Hurricane Sandy could produce significant precipitation over widespread areas and has the potential to cause significant power outages, FEMA continues to encourage state and local authorities responsible for coordinating with local utility companies to do so ahead of any impacts. The President reiterated his direction to his team to ensure there were no unmet needs as states continue to prepare, and to keep him updated as preparations for the storm continue.

So, what do you all think about this extra info? Im seeing Sandy Cheeks as an Irene. 188.223.248.201 17:59, October 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Sandy's IKE rating for surge is now tied with Ike himself at peak strength (5.4 / 6), and the pressure is STILL dropping (it's dropped 13 mb in 20 hours), and the storm is still expanding! What's more, the core of the storm has revived itself, looking like a hurricane within a hurricane, which is exactly as the 1991 Super Storm looked when it was near peak strength ... except that Sandy is about 15 mb stronger, still intensifying with a baroclinic low and a sting jet (Wikipedia it) and it will actually make landfall in the worst track possible! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane (talk) 18:21, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is a very scary storm. Dr. Jeff Masters said in his latest blog post that Sandy has a 20% chance of flooding the subway system of the big apple. A 20% chance! If you read on a little more, if the subway system is flooded by Sandy's storm surge, it would be terrible. Quoted from his latest blog post is this: "<span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;">If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power,"<span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;"> he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion.<span style="color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;"> " FIFTY-FIVE BILLION!! And it was only a category one! Are you kidding me? Irene was so close to being a devastating disaster for the U.S, and Sandy may do what she never got the chance to do. If Sandy does flood New York City's subway system, she would be second only to Hurricane Katrina as the nation's costliest natural disaster. This is so unreal. I think this nightmare storm is about to become a reality very soon. I can hardly believe my eyes. Ryan1000 19:28, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Does Sandy mark ECMWF's comeback after its flops earlier this year? --HurricaneMaker99 20:25, October 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Geez...Sandy (Cheeks) has killed 48 people and I can see her rivaling Irene and maybe even Ike in terms of size and damage. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:24, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * I've looked at all the reliable computer models and I am finding it harder and harder to see a scenario as to how this will not suck. This storm is pretty much doomed to decimate someplace on the east coast. My worst fear is the NYC scenario (see my above post, if you haven't already), but I don't like a Philadelphia flood either. I can only hope people are taking this more seriously than they should and get out of harm's way. They have very little time left until Sandy comes ashore early next week around Monday. Ryan1000 21:59, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Her death toll stands at 65 and 51 of them are of Haiti Sandy is likely gone now.Allanjeffs 15:22, October 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * OMG...Sandy's pressure is down to 951 mb!!! Really?! A Category 1 with a 951 mb pressure?! If Sandy can drop 5 more mbar, she'll shove Alex (2010)'s fame as the strongest non-major hurricane in Atlantic history right out of his hands. Anyway, Sandy just is getting so scary. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:27, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 192px">IKE rating at 5.8/6.0. Highest value ever. Isaac829 E-Mail  17:45, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * She is looking better she might strengh more before landfall hope the mid atlantic states are prepare.Allanjeffs 18:37, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Andrew, I assume you meant 6 mbar, right? Alex was upped a bit to 110/946 in post-season, from 105/947. Sandy might have been a major hurricane when it hit Cuba though, and I assume it had been. The New Jersy coast will take a beating from this hurricane, and even if it doesn't hit the big apple directly, making landfall near the mouth of the Delaware river still spells disaster for Philadelphia. Tropical storm force winds extend out more than half as far as they did with Typhoon Tip in 1979, at roughly 800 miles away. This storm will be very widespread and destructive, and yeah, I think Sandy's fate is all but sealed. She won't be coming back in 2018 now, I'm sure of it. Ryan1000 21:43, October 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Look at THAT! Has there been anything like it since Katrina? Also, Dr. Masters now gives a 50% chance of NYC's subways being flooded. --HurricaneMaker99 01:02, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * FUUUU***...This is terrible...If New York City's subway system is flooded, it would cost more damage than what Hurricane Andrew did in 1992. Dr. Masters mentioned in his last blog post (see my above post), that if a storm flooded the subways of New York, it would cause at least 55 billion dollars in damage! The damage to property and infrastructure would be at least 10-20 billion dollars on top of that at the rate Sandy is going. It's expected to make landfall by Monday evening near central/northern New Jersey, when the tides are highest from this month's full moon. That would put Sandy's storm surge at least 1 foot higher than Irene's was last year. That puts billions of dollars of more property at risk considering how massive Sandy is and from what angle she's going to be making landfall. This is a nightmare storm. I can't believe what I'm seeing. This could be one of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history. The folks over there don't even have a day until Sandy will make landfall tomorrow afternoon. There better be a mandatory evacuation for NYC right now, or several people could die from this monster storm. Now is the time to start praying... Ryan1000 01:18, October 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * AHHH...Gale force winds extend 900 miles from the center! That makes Sandy the second biggest Atlantic hurricane system on record, behind only Hurricane Igor in 2010. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:10, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Please please PLEASE tell me you mean "across!!!" --HurricaneMaker99 01:38, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 72px">No worries...it's across... :P Isaac829  E-Mail  01:44, October 29, 2012 (UTC) This storm is so big...And pressure continues to fall too...And worst of all, it's decievingly weak. I can't believe how many people aren't taking this thing seriously on the east coast. This could rival the destruction caused by Ike, Wilma, Andrew, and even Katrina, yet there's still no mandatory evacuation out for the big apple or Philadelphia. I can't believe it's gonna happen to them...People need to understand a storm doesn't have to be very strong to be devastating. I can't imagine how bad this storm will be for the east coast. I mentioned the folks there only have one day until Sandy will come crashing ashore tomorrow...when tides reach their peak from the full moon. If they don't leave now, this storm could not only be one of the costliest disasters in U.S. history, but also one of the deadliest. This is so unreal. Ryan1000 01:47, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

It has been estimated that Irene's surge fell as little as a foot short of flooding portions of the New York subway system. Irene's surge at Battery Park was 4.36 feet with a total water rise of about nine feet. According to the hurricane center's storm surge probability graphic, there is at least a 40% chance that we exceed those values by at least a foot. There is roughly a 30% chance that NE portions of NYC (closest to Long Island Sound) will see a surge greater than 10 feet. This includes the Bronx and the Upper East Side as far south as Tudor City, which is past Central Park. The record surge for New York City was 13 feet from the 1821 hurricane. In that event, Manhattan was flooded all the way to Canal Street, a full mile inland from Battery Park. I doubt we'll see a surge that high, but it gives you an idea of the kind of flooding that could take place. The SLP in Sandy right now is 950mb, equivalent to a Cat 3 hurricane. As has already been mentioned, Ike had a 953mb pressure when it annihilated the Texas coast. That said, we won't see a surge anywhere near Ike's 21 feet for several reasons. For one, Ike had a substantially larger fetch and ACE value at the time of landfall. Also, the water was very shallow, providing no resistance to water rise. What concerns me most about Sandy (besides where it's hitting) is the expected duration of onshore flow. In Irene, you had the onshore flow ahead of landfall that pushed water in, but because Irene was a poleward moving storm, once it moved inland, you got strong offshore flow that helped push the water back out. Sandy, however, will be moving more east-west. That means, you will have constant onshore flow north of the storm center and constant offshore flow to the south (thus likely sparing Delaware Bay and Philadelphia), without any change in direction. Areas north of the center such as NYC, Long Island Sound, and southern New England are expected to have onshore flow for up to 12 straight hours. In NYC, water coming from Long Island Sound will be blocked by surge coming up from the south through Verrazano Narrows, leaving all that water with nowhere to go. And the water will just keep piling on for up to 12 straight hours. That sets up a potentially devastating coastal flood situation in New York City. That's what makes Sandy so scary, particularly for the NYC area. This won't be a sudden, cataclysmic surge like in Katrina or Ike. It will be a slower inundation...where the water just won't stop coming. -- SkyFury 07:54, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sorry for my absence this weekend. I've been closely following the impending apocalypse (*nervous laughter*). Get ready for an essay. It's virtually impossible to compare this storm to anything. The scale of this event is unprecedented. Sandy is the dominant windflow generator all the way to the Mississippi, south through the Greater Antilles, and up as far north as Maine. It will directly affect the weather across the entire eastern third of the United States. The synoptic evolution of this thing just boggles the mind. The models show the jetstream literally picking Sandy up and throwing it into the coastline. There's an incredible amount of energy involved in something like that, and a lot of it is going to be directed at the coastline.
 * It's now official, SANDY is now the LARGEST HURRICANE ever observed. It is expected to stay in the New England area until November 2. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:59, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:
 * Alberto - 0% - No.
 * Beryl - 10% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Chris - 0% - It's a early hurricane, but I still doubt it.
 * Debby - 15% - Wasn't as bad as I expected.
 * Ernesto - 10% - See you in 2018, Ernie.
 * Florence - 0% - Probably not.
 * Gordon - 5% - See Beryl.
 * Helene - 0% - Less damage than Ernesto.
 * Isaac - ≥50% - Maybe and maybe not.
 * Joyce - 0% - Florence's twin.
 * Kirk - 0% - See ya next time!
 * Leslie - 5% - See Ernesto.
 * Michael - 0% - Nope.
 * Nadine - 0% - See Gordon.
 * Oscar - 0% - Can't you tell?
 * Patty - 0% - See Oscar.
 * Rafael - 10% - See Debby.
 * Sandy - ≥60% - Probably will retire.
 * Tony - 0% - Do I need to say anything?

-- Isaac829 E-Mail  00:57, October 29, 2012 (UTC)


 * If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. <font color="Blue">Darren 23   Edits |Mail  01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that, meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. <font color="Blue">Darren 23   Edits |Mail  15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Alberto - 0.1% - Some slight effects in the Southeast, but it's not likely.
 * 2) Beryl - 10% - Lots of Memorial Day hype, but damage will probably not be enough for retirement.
 * 3) Chris - 0.01% - A rare and unusual storm! The 0.01% is for what he accomplished.
 * 4) Debby - 20% - Loads of flooding in Florida.
 * 5) Ernesto - 25% - No Emily.
 * 6) Florence - 0% - NO.
 * 7) Gordon - 5% - I underestimated your damage in the Azores.
 * 8) Helene - 2% - Gave Mexico some rain.
 * 9) Isaac - 60% - Everyone, call me crazy, but a storm causing $2 billion is NOTHING to giggle at. It is almost safe to say that all our Atlantic "I" names are now replacements of previous ones.
 * 10) Joyce - 0% - Joyce has no hope of going.
 * 11) Kirk - 0% - See you in six years!
 * 12) Leslie - 4% - Newfoundland made it out okay.
 * 13) Michael - 0.05% - Amazing unexpected major, but really, I just gave Mike 0.05% for shoving the word "intensity" in my cheeks.
 * 14) Nadine - 2% - Gave the Azores some rain.
 * 15) Oscar - 0% - Never in a million years.
 * 16) Patty - 0.1% - Did something in the Bahamas.
 * 17) Rafael - 10% - Hit the Antilles and Bermuda.
 * 18) Sandy - TBA - Still Active
 * 19) Tony - 0% - See Florence, Joyce, Kirk, and Oscar's sections.


 * We've started this already? Really? Lol. -- SkyFury 21:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I mentioned it's not worth the trouble to start it after just few (fish) storms in the season. Unless Debby turns out to be threatening for Corpus Christi, I won't be posting mine for a while. Ryan1000 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's a little to early to do retirements, the next chance for me to post mine will be when a big hurricane is threatening a land mass, Debby came close, but it just decided to be picked up by the trough. 96.242.128.215 18:03, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

My Percentages:
 * 1. Alberto: 0% - Only slight effects.
 * 2. Beryl: 2% - Not alot of damage.
 * 3. Chris: 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's about it.
 * 4. Debby: 25% - Some flooding in Florida.
 * 5. Ernesto: 25% - Effects not damaging enough.
 * 6. Florence: 0% - See you in 2018.
 * 7. Gordon: 15% - Probably not much in Europe
 * 8. Helene: 10% - Didn't amount to much.
 * 9. Isaac: 60% - Looks like Isaac is our first real retirement contender.
 * 10. Joyce: 0% - Joyce, you didn't have a choice.
 * 11. Kirk: 0% - Kirk won't affect anyone.
 * 12. Leslie: 10% - Newfoundland turned out okay.
 * 13. Michael: 0% - First major of the season, but no.
 * 14. Nadine: 5% - Azores made out okay.
 * 15. Oscar: 0% - Nope.
 * 16. Patty: 0% - Nothing, really.
 * 17. Rafael: 20% - I think it didn't hit any areas as hard as expected.

Simlover123 (talk) 03:08, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

My turn

Alberto:1% unsual doesn`t mean retirement

Beryl: 10% rare may storm but not a lot of damage. it even help with th drought

Chris: 0% rare don`t earn retirement

Debby: 30% a lot of flood in Florida and tornadoes but no allison

Ernesto: 25% probable a cat 2 but no a lot of damage for Mexico standards

Florence:0% Meh... see you in 2018

Gordon:7% don`t know if he produced damge but if he did maybe not a lot May do some in the Azores

Helene:5% Fail even though you kill two people

Isaac:85% the thing is it would be a bust if you stay with at least 5billion dollars in damage you are out imo even Dr Masters think you are gone.

Joyce:0% FAIL!!! even Florence was better than you I pity storms like you.

Kirk 0% you were near major hurricane but no effects on land

Leslie 5% just some winds to Newfoundland

Michael 0% the most beautiful storm of the season but no

Nadine 5% some impacts after all

Oscar 0% Do I even need to explain it.

Patty0% you won`t I am pretty sure

Rafael 30% damage in the antilles.it might go up or down but first I want to see the TCR for any changes in my estimate with this one.

Sandy 60% this could be conservative I would change the number after the effects in the NE

Tony 0% you just form and nothing more.

Allanjeffs 20:41, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Now that we've had a decent number of storms, I'll do mine. --HurricaneMaker99 20:47, October 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto: 0% - Gets points for the early kickoff, but if there was any impact, it was negligible.
 * Beryl: 10% 4% - This storm was amazing to watch. Second pre-season storm for the first time in 104 years, second May storm for the first time in 125 years, strongest pre-season U.S. landfall on record, strongest pre-season storm in 42 years (Hurricane Alma 1970)... the fact that Beryl accomplished all of these meteorological achievements without ever becoming a hurricane makes it seem all the more badass. Impact, however, was fairly minor, even though the timing sucked.
 * I was never under the impression that Beryl was a particularly destructive storm, but $148,000 is a shockingly low damage estimate. 3% for impact - 6 people died despite the minimal damage - plus another 1% out of appreciation for how rare Beryl was.
 * Chris: 0% - Put on a freakshow in the far northern Atlantic, but didn't hurt anybody in the process.
 * Debby: 15% 30% - I'm skeptical about the damage figure being as low as $42.5 million. Take a look at this. 28.78 inches of rain? Wow. With such a large area receiving 7+ inches of rain, I wouldn't necessarily expect retirement-worthy figures, but still.
 * The skeptic in me was correct: turns out the damage from Debby was over $300 million. A respectable figure to be sure, but the odds are still against Debby getting the boot.
 * Ernesto: 10% 20% - Wasn't as bad as Arlene last year, if stronger.
 * Actually, it was pretty much on par. $250 million in damage makes Ernesto slightly costlier, though it was half as deadly. I'd put Ernesto in the class of Debby: no picnic, but no retirement, either. Remember, Ernesto hit hardest the country that snubbed Alex and Karl, both of which were far worse.
 * Florence: 0% - Gets an F.
 * Gordon: 10% - It looks like the Azores made it out OK.
 * Helene: 2% - Looked very sickly when it made landfall in Mexico, so I doubt there's much damage there. I also doubt that the damage and 2 fatalities in Trinidad & Tobago will count since they were from the remnants of then-TD 7, but then they wouldn't be enough for retirement anyway.
 * Isaac: 65% - Yeah, this one was pretty bad. Spotty areas of New Orleans saw worse damage than Katrina; that being said, it seems like they were in the minority. The enormous hype can be credited for the low US death toll (9), but effects in Haiti and elsewhere brought the grand total to 44 dead, which makes Isaac the deadliest second-deadliest storm of the season so far ( though Sandy is doomed to overtake him, if she hasn't already yep, she's done it). $2 billion is quite a high price tag as well, though it doesn't hold a candle to the monsters of the past decade (Charley, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Ike, and Irene, to name a few). The hype mellowed out much faster than it did with Irene, but I'm still under the impression that the road to recovery will be a long one for the hardest-hit areas.
 * Joyce: 0% - At least Florence was respectably strong.
 * Kirk: 0% - Cool to watch, but nah. Couldn't care less about Star Trek.
 * Leslie: 10% - Some effects in Bermuda and Newfoundland, but nothing even close to resembling an Igor or Fabian.
 * Michael: 0% - Pending post-storm analysis of Sandy, there's a chance we got our only major of the year - and a marginal one at that - from Michael... making it all the easier to appreciate in retrospect. Like all fishspinners, though...
 * Nadine: 5% - Even softer on the Azores than Gordon was, but damn, what a storm! Three full weeks as a tropical cyclone, capped off with a fittingly climactic bout of strengthening; it almost looked like Nadine was threatening to flirt with near-major hurricane status for a short while. A memorably persistent storm. Bravo!
 * Oscar: 0% - Yeah, no.
 * Patty: 0% - This was a pretty remarkable storm, if you think about it: it came ever so close to the Bahamas, and yet still couldn't give them jack. Most pathetic storm of the season in that regard, though Joyce was even weaker.
 * Rafael: 25% - Damage was described as "significant" in Guadeloupe, a French territory. Could pull a Klaus out of the hat, though I wouldn't count on it.
 * Sandy: 60% - Frankly, Sandy could be a total bust for the United States, and it would still have a fairly decent shot at retirement. Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti were hit pretty hard. Cuba got their deadliest hit since Dennis, and Haiti got what essentially amounted to a re-Isaac, even though, unlike that storm, the center of Sandy was 100 miles away. No damage estimates are available yet, though I expect that Sandy was a billion-dollar storm in the Caribbean. The death toll currently stands at 48, and that will undoubtedly rise as Sandy evolves into "Frankenstorm" (shudder) and takes aim at the northeastern US. That 60% could be at 90% when all is said and done.
 * Tony: 0% - Next time, if you're going to pick a storm to imitate, keep in mind that storms like Oscar are pretty poor role models.

Ryan grand has made his speech: Ryan1000 00:56, October 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - Alberto wasn't a "fail" because it formed 2 weeks early, but no impacts, so no retirement.
 * Beryl - 5% - I give Beryl some credit for her early formation, landfall, and impacts, but it wasn't that bad; in fact, it was helpful for relieving the drought in that part of the lower 48.
 * Chris - 0% - I gotta say, I'm impressed Chris managed to pull of a hurricane, but let's be serious here. No impacts, no retirement.
 * Debby - 30% - Over 300 million isn't negligible, but for retirement, it's just not enough.
 * Ernesto - 25% - He did a sizable 250 million in damage, but still likely won't be retired.
 * Florence - 0% - Little Flo didn't pack a blow...Yeah, she's the last original "F" name from the 1979-now lists (like Isaac is the last original "I" name), but sorry Flo, no chance of retirement. Better luck in 2018.
 * Gordon - 10% - It certainly caused some impacts in the Azores, but probrably not enough for retirement.
 * Helene - 5% - Very little impact.
 * Isaac - 60% - Damage is about 2 billion, with 44 deaths, though mostly in Haiti. Retirement's a maybe here.
 * Joyce - 0% - You have no choice Joyce. Try again in 2018.
 * Kirk - 0% - Captian Kirk shall not live long and prosper. He'll be back in 2018.
 * Leslie - 10% - Wasn't too bad for Newfoundland.
 * Michael - 0% - An unexpected major, but it still didn't hit land.
 * Nadine - 5% - Hit the Azores but nothing severe. Partial credit for how long she lasted.
 * Oscar - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Patty - 0% - It existed. Nothing else to say here.
 * Rafael - 15% - The Lessers made it out ok and Bermuda wasn't hit too hard either. Extratropical impacts in Newfoundland don't count. Sorry Rafael. =( See you again in 2018.
 * Sandy - 75% - I think we're gonna see a retirement now.
 * Tony - 0% - You seem lonely Tony. But you aren't, you're joining all of the other failures this year on the 2018 list.

My predictions: Andros 1337 (talk) 23:07, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - <1% - very minor effects on the East Coast.
 * Beryl - 10% - strongest pre-season storm to hit the U.S., although effects were minor.
 * Chris - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Debby - 20% - moderate effects, but nothing too severe.
 * Ernesto - 15% - some moderate effects, although Mexico has seen much worse before.
 * Florence - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Gordon - 10% - some impact on the Azores, but nothing severe.
 * Helene - 5% - minor impact.
 * Isaac - 60% - Current damage estimate is $3 billion.
 * Joyce - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Kirk - 0% - fishspinner.
 * Leslie - ?? - to early to determine, however, Bermuda should be watching this storm.

The Great Seer Speaketh: -- SkyFury 02:28, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto: 3% - This storm did cause rough surf along the east coast that required several water rescues.
 * Beryl: 15% - Beryl was amazing. It was damn near a hurricane when it hit Florida...in May! Crazy. I was flying home from London the day it made landfall and we were wondering if it was gonna affect us. Turns out it didn't but it was definitely interesting. Killed six people but didn't cause much damage.
 * Chris: 0% - Probably made Grand Banks fishing a little interesting though. It was a beautiful storm.
 * Debby: 25% - Caused very severe flooding across northern Florida and killed nine people.
 * Ernesto: 15% - Raised hell, but in the end, it wasn't much. It did kill seven people.
 * Florence: 0% - Fell on its face way out in no man's land. Not even sure the Cape Verdes got a drop of rain.
 * Gordon: 5% - It got fun in the Azores for a bit.
 * Helene: 10% - Caused some minor flooding in Mexico, killed 2.
 * Isaac: 60% - Isaac is a borderline retirement case. New Orleans's $14 billion super levees did their job but Isaac caused incredible flooding in surrounding parishes and it may yet get worse. Death tolls and damage figures have gone up. Right now, the death toll sits at about nine in the US and 44 total with damage estimates at $3-4 billion. That's a pretty good case but we'll have to wait and see. If the US formally requests its retirement, it will probably be retired.
 * Joyce: 0% - Isaac's outflow had her taken outside and shot in the face lol.
 * Kirk: 0% - The bad Star Trek jokes will return in six years. See you in 2018 Captain Kirk! Godspeed.
 * Leslie: 5% - Surfers loved it and it raised some hell in Newfoundland, but overall didn't do much.
 * Michael: 0% - It was damn fun to watch though.
 * Nadine: 2% - Gets a full % just for effort. It hit the Azores twice. Amazing.
 * Oscar: 0% - Nothing to see here.
 * Patty: 0% - Nope.
 * Rafael: 10% - Caused some flooding in the Leeward Islands that killed one person and the extratropical system wreaked havoc in Newfoundland.
 * (to be continued)

Here's mine (Liz) It's time for the Kiwi predictions, based on damage and epicness. Kiewii! 16:19, October 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto = 1/10. Break the mould.
 * Beryl = 2/10. She wasn't that bad after all...
 * Chris = -1/10. Greenland fail.
 * Debby = 3.5/10. Debz, did you flood Florida? Debby: Yes I did but I don't think I'll be kicked out of the list yet.
 * Ernesto = 4.5/10. When I walk on the islands, this is what I see. Everybody stops and staring at ME, I got water in my squirtgun and I ain't afraid to squirt it, squirt it, squirt is, I'm Ernie and I know it. (Ernie: I WON'T GET KICKED OFF THE LIST!)
 * Florence = 0/10. I think the machine broke down....
 * Gordon = 2/10. Caused a Portuguese hurricane party, but was not like Ramsey. Good gordon! :D
 * Helene = 1/10. Umm... The Carribbean saw much worse. But H storms are known for unpredictibility.
 * Isaac = 9/10. That was like another Katrina, but weaker! :(
 * Joyce = 0/10. Florence's sister.
 * Kirk = 0/10. Nice and kind.
 * Leslie = 2/10. ok cool les
 * Michael = 1/10. THRILLER! THRILLER NIGHT! Ok, this storm fails 100% when it comes to landfall, but good work on the major part.
 * Nadine = 0/10. Even Cheryl Cole could do better than that! Come on Nadine, you fail 999%. Nadine: OH I'm insatiable (not really lol.) But... nadine is soooooo cooooool bc she gets an olympic gold medal from london 2012 for lasting long!! :D congrats dina!! Nadine: OMG TYVM!!! I LOVE YOU ALL!!!! WIGGLE WIGGLE WIGGLE WIGGLE WIGGLE YEAH!!!
 * Oscar = 0/10. Can't beat Oscar Pistorious in the 100m Paralympic final.
 * Patty = -9/10. I've eaten the Krabby Patty. Cheese flavour. Tastes good. McDonalds. I'm lovin it.
 * Rafael = 1/10 Let's see if he can beat Roger Federer....
 * Sandy = 10/10 100% GOING. FRANKENSTORM HAS GOT TO GO, LOOK AT HER! LET'S PREPARE FOR SHANIQUA, IN 2018
 * 188.223.248.201 188.223.248.201 22:35, October 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0%
 * Beryl - 1%
 * Chris - 1% - Epic.
 * Debby - 1%
 * Ernesto - 2%
 * Florence - 0%
 * Gordon - 30% - Epic.
 * Helene - 1%
 * Isaac - 65%
 * Joyce - 0%
 * Kirk - 1% - Epic.
 * Leslie - 10%
 * Michael - 10% - Epic.
 * Nadine - 30% - Super epic.
 * Oscar - 0%
 * Patty - 0%

Here's mine:
 * Alberto - 0% - No. Not at all.
 * Beryl - 10% - Caused some damage in Florida.
 * Chris - 1% - Formed on cool waters, but it is not enough to have Chris retired.
 * Debby - 20% - Also a
 * Ernesto - 15% - Mexico may request Ernesto to be retired.
 * Florence - 0% - What a fail.
 * Gordon - 2% - Gave the Azores some rain, but not enough to merit its retirement
 * Helene - 3% - Killed 2 in Mexico, but still, I don't think this may be retired at all.
 * Isaac - 75% - Retirement is almost certain for this remarkable storm.
 * Joyce - 0% - Another fishspinner.
 * Kirk - 0% - See Florence.
 * Leslie - 3% - Damages in Newfoundland are not so severe, compared to previous storms that affected the area before.
 * Michael - 2% - Becoming a major in cool waters is EPIC, but still not enough to push Michael into retirement.
 * Nadine - 5% - Considering its long life, this has a small chance for retirement, and like Gordon, it gave the Azores some rain.
 * Oscar - 0% - see Joyce.
 * Patty - 0% - Definitely not.
 * Rafael - 25% - May be retired as damages in Guadeloupe is considered as "significant"; may pull out a Klaus.
 * Sandy - 70% - Current data of damages and deaths from the Caribbean could ensure a retirement for Sandy.
 * Tony - 0% - EPIC FAIL.
 * (to be continued)


 * Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:26, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Replacement names
This might be a bit soon, but since we have a reasonable canidate for retirement, anyone have suggestions for Isaac? I know we're desperately running out of (descent) male "I" names, but I have a few here: Of these five, my personal pick would be Icarus. Ryan1000 22:11, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Icarus
 * Ignatius
 * Ioan
 * Irving
 * Ichabod

Here are mine: And please don't tell me the names have to be of English, Spanish, or French origin, since there was never such a requirement by the WMO. Andros 1337 (talk) 23:01, August 31, 2012 (UTC)
 * Italo
 * Italus
 * Innocenzo
 * Ippolito
 * Ignazio
 * Inigo
 * Inocencio
 * Ildefonso
 * Isandro
 * Iago
 * Immanuel
 * Indigo
 * Irwin
 * Izzy (Yes, this can be a male name)
 * Isamu
 * Ifor
 * Ilswyn

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I like the names, though a few of them sound weird to me. I'll stick with Icarus. Also, Irwin's not a possibility IMO since it is already in use on the EPac; 2011 most rescently. Ignazio is a little confusing with Ignacio, as is Ignatius, but if the WMO can have two variants of the same name on both the ATL and EPac lists (i.e. Frank and Franklin, 2010 EPac and 2011 ATL), I wouldn't rule it out. I don't think the exact same name can be on both lists at the same time though, because if a severe Atlantic hurricane named Irwin hit Mexico and they requested it to be retired, the EPac Irwin would have to be retired as well to avoid confusion, and we'd need two new "I" replacements. And yeah, names don't have to be of English, French, or Spanish origin. Karl of 2010 is German, Igor of 2010 was Russian, ect. Ryan1000 23:49, August 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Ion

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Iden :this one

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Iron

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Ira: or this one can be the replacement of Isaac.

<p style="margin-left: 24px">IcariusAllanjeffs 01:04, September 1, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Here are my replacements:

We really don't have many unweird "I" names. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:14, September 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Isa
 * Ila (Arabic name)
 * Ilya (Russian name)
 * Iestin (variant of Justin) (my pick)
 * Immanuel
 * Innocente
 * Innocent
 * Ioan (too similar to Ione?)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think Ioan is too confusing with Ione, but it could be. I personally pronounce them differently. I just thought a few of Andross's "I" names looked weird. Not all though, and we don't have as many "I" names as we do other names. Isa sounds feminine, but it could be either, even though it sounds weird. Ryan1000 03:24, September 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * My pick would probably be either Irving or Iggy. --HurricaneMaker99 14:10, September 1, 2012 (UTC)

I almost hope Isaac won't be retired because we're running out of 'I' names lol: The WMO has proven they are not shy about selecting Bible names, so any of this is fair game. Irvin and Ira are probably my favorite of this list. Irvin may be a little too close to Irwin, which is in use in the EPAC and Ira may be too close to Ida, which is in use, but I doubt either of those would present a problem. My concern is that, even though there are some good names remaining, that they're gonna start picking ridiculous stuff like Dorian in 2007 and Gonzalo in 2008. -- SkyFury 02:51, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Irvin
 * Irving
 * Immanuel
 * Innocente
 * Ingram
 * Ibrahim
 * Innis
 * Ioan
 * Ira
 * Ishmael (maybe there are some Moby Dick fans at the WMO)
 * Isa (was used in the West Pacific in 1997, it was one of the many Cat 5s that year)
 * Izzy

Wouldn't Isaiah be possible? 65.34.84.50 03:18, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gonzalo was a joke. Gary would have been my personal pick for Gustav, but they had to pick that. Ian would have been my pick for Ike in 2008 (which also replaced Typhoon Ike in 1984), but Ian wasn't used as a replacement until Igor got the boot in 2010. Fernand was a complete F**k up; Fernando would have been the better choice by far. And we still have some descent "I" names left, but hopefully the WMO won't pick anything stupid. Ryan1000 05:20, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Robbie, Isaiah is too similar to Isaias, Ike's replacement. My replacement for Isaac, as said above, is Iestin. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  05:50, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'd pick Irving. Irving was already used in the WPac basin in the early 90's. 112.201.177.59 11:46, September 2, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Andrew please no. I can't even pronounce it. Ryan, I consider "Ferndand" to be a typo and will always use "Fernando" unless arm twisted. Hell, "Ferdinand" would've been better. "Dorian" was the worst though. There were so many great 'D' names to chose from: Derek, Darren, Daryl...the list goes on and on, but they chose that. Unbelievable. The WMO seems to have favored short names recently (Ike, Ida, Don, Ian), especially for 'I' storms, which is why I give a slight edge to "Ira". Of the seven 'I' names that have been retired (all in the past 11 years), five have been replaced by names of four letters or less. So I would look at the shorter names as being the most likely. But, again, predicting what the WMO is gonna do is like predicting what these hurricanes are gonna do. -- SkyFury 19:16, September 2, 2012 (UTC)


 * "There were so many great 'D' names to chose from: Derek, Darren, Daryl..." ...Dylan? ;) (though FWIW, I'm in the minority that likes Dorian... but still) --HurricaneMaker99 21:33, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yo. Liz here.
 * Mmm.... Probably Ivor, Ismail, Ibby, Irving, Irvo, or Iggy to replace Isaac. Something nice but not too silly.
 * Silliest Hurricane Names Yet:


 * Humberto?
 * Fabian? (Fab Ian?)
 * Dorian? (Door Ian?)
 * Olga?
 * Nestor? (Birds have Nestors.)
 * "Isiahhs?" spelt wrong?
 * Fernand? (Ferdinand? Fernando?!?)
 * Gonzalo (Rip off of gonzalez)
 * Joaquin? (Joachim, much?)
 * Christoble? (Superpower?)

Epac now...
 * Jova?
 * Bud?
 * Pillar?
 * Ignahcio?
 * Dora the Explorer?!
 * Nada?
 * Fasto? (What on earth is a Fasto?)
 * Polo? (Water Polo? Or maybe lyrics from Nicki Minaj's Super Bass?)
 * Tico?
 * Xina?
 * Cosme? (Isn't that a girls' name?)
 * Kiko? (Isn't that a girls name?)
 * Hernan?
 * Eleda?
 * Paine? (That's a surname, like Liam Payne of One Direction?)
 * Gurrllliermo? (however that's spelt?)
 * Those are the silliest ATL and EPAC names I have heard of. What do you think?
 * No names need to be of English French of Spanish origin. Igor/Ivan/Olga them lot were Slavic, Rina is an Indian name (used by Japan too,) Omar is an Arabic name, Ingrid is a Norwegian name and so on.
 * What do you think? Please comment! 188.223.248.201 22:59, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Also add Hortense, Gerda, Francelia, Isbell, Debra, Felice, Gilda, Fifi, Hallie, Dottie, Emmy, Inga and Babe. BTW, 188, Cosme and Kiko aren't girls' names. 219.90.94.162 07:49, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yes they are girls names, 219.


 * Cosme, as a girl's name is a variant of (Greek), and the meaning of Cosme is "order, beauty"
 * Kiko is a Japanese girls' name, a variant of Keiko, meaning, "be glad." 188.223.248.201 19:38, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

I don't think all of the names are ridiculous, but as long as the WMO doesn't choose anything stupid for Isaac, I'll be ok. I don't think all of the replacement names are strange, except for Dorian, Fernand, and probrably Gonzalo. And the WMO can replace names with other names that look like the retired name (Rita>Rina or Stan>Sean), so Isaiah could replace Isaac even though it's not far off from it. And Andrew, Isaiah and Isaias may sound similar, but I don't pronounce them the same way. I personally don't confuse Ivan with Ian (though Ivan's Russian pronunciation is ee-vahn), nor Ioan and Ione (I pronounce Ione as eye-own-e), even though they're just one or two letters off. I thought Irma would be Irene's replacement last year, and it was. Hopefully I'll be right again this year with Icarus replacing Isaac. Ryan1000 23:34, September 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * Personally, my picks would either be Ippolito or Ignazio, considering the relative lack of Italian names. Andros 1337 (talk) 00:49, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Most of the names recently have been fine, but there have been a few that are really unfortunate lol. -- SkyFury 10:18, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ryan I like the name Dorian.Gonzalo was put because in Cuba is a very popular name and maybe they ask for it and Fernand is also a good replacement in my opinion.and anon all the names that you have ask for the epac are all very popular in Mexico like elida or Pilar and Fausto.Allanjeffs 21:03, September 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * That's not what I think though Allan. There were so many better "D" names to choose from IMO, but they picked Dorian. I do not like Fernand so much either because it's a French name. I think Fernando (the Spanish version of Fernand) would've been better, especially considering Felix caused most of it's damage in a Spanish-speaking country. The same goes for Gonzalo. I think Gonzalez would've been a better replacement, but Gary was my pick for Gustav in 2008. Ryan1000 01:04, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gonzalez is a last name Gonzalo is the first name. Allanjeffs 01:52, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Although there may be abnormal names on today's ATL and EPAC lists, Liz, you should get a load of what they used during the old days: ATL Female Name Fails (some of these are another Wikia contributor's ideas): Sorry if I've sidetracked the discussion or if I've confused anyone. -- Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:17, September 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gerda (Or this one)
 * Francelia
 * Kendra (I don't see anything wrong with this, 219).
 * Isbell
 * Debra (Or this one!)
 * Felice
 * Gilda
 * Fifi (SERIOUSLY?!)
 * Hallie
 * Dottie
 * Emmy
 * Inga
 * Babe (Wha...?)
 * Cleo (Come on!)
 * Candy (Really?)
 * Beulah
 * Blanche (I can't even prononunce this one!)

Lol! Fifi and the Flowertots? Blanche from Coronation Street? (a popular soap drama series on TV) Cleo? Cleopatra! Gilda? Gilma? Like the Epac in Hawaii? Hallie? Halle Berry? Candy? (I see Toons on Toontown called Candy) Okay... I agree that some of these names are kinda weird. Anyway... Beulah is an old fashioned name. But the name Fifi cracked me up XD What do you think ppl? Which is the weirdest name in Epac and Atl history? (one boy and one girl name plz.) ty! 188.223.248.201 19:44, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think all the names were confusing, and I wouldn't sidetrack the discussion too much. The point of this was to speculate over what would replace Isaac. I'm placing my money on Icarus, though many other names are avaliable. Ryan1000 22:20, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Liz, the weirdest ATL name EVER used IMO, is Fifi, and the weirdest EPAC name is Xina, but this usually isn't the right place to say these kind of things. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:37, September 4, 2012 (UTC)

Hmm...Isaac will most likely be retired and I think that these names below will probably be brought up at the WMO session in 2013. Ignatius, Inver, or Ivor is the ones I think will most likely replace Isaac in 2013. Wow, the WMO is definitely running out of "I" named storms, the better think up some new names fast or a past hurricane name could be brought back D: STO12 (talk) 01:04, September 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ignatius (this name is one of my top picks)
 * Innis
 * Icarus
 * Idan
 * Inver (this name is one of my top picks)
 * Irvin
 * Ilya
 * Irving
 * Ivor (this name is one of my top picks)

Otto, I don't think that bringing up a retired hurricane name will occur (Although it technically happened with Carol and Edna). We still have some "normal" I names, then we hit the crazy ones. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:00, September 5, 2012 (UTC)

Okaii. Let's get all the list together.

isaac could prob get retired. so what do yall think of my list :D 188.223.248.201 22:37, September 24, 2012 (UTC)

Here's mine: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:07, September 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Ambert
 * Bora
 * Cort
 * Delia
 * Ezra
 * Faith
 * Gabe
 * Hope
 * Iestin
 * Joy
 * Kade
 * Lucy
 * Mort
 * Natalie
 * Oliver
 * Pearl
 * Rupert
 * Shelby
 * Tyler
 * Vera
 * Wyatt


 * Ok :D Iestin sounds like a cool name. I think it's time for like a hurricane Jamal, Sha'Naynay, Shaqueela, Shaniqua (if Sandy gets kicked from the list) Khadeesha, Keisha (Ke$ha! TiK ToK! :D) and those kind of epic names :D I think time's up for oldish names. Get it ppl? Anyway.


 * Icarus


 * Izaak


 * Itrez


 * Isaiah (Care about Isaiahhs?)


 * Ishaq


 * Irvin (Irwin, much?)


 * Ibn


 * Ibrahim


 * Ibaad


 * Ismail


 * Issa


 * Iqbal


 * Ithaar
 * Iggy


 * Iyaad

Sandy. Id like to see a hurricane Shaniqua. What do you all think?188.223.248.201 16:38, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Imran would be cool names too. Whatcha'll think? 188.223.248.201 21:04, October 22, 2012 (UTC)

I think it might be a little too soon to call Sandy. If she is retired, I have some suggestions here: Of these names (if Sandy causes enough impacts to be retired), I would pick Sheena as her replacement. Ryan1000 17:13, October 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Sheena
 * Sarah
 * Sabrina
 * Sammy (might be confusing with Sam, scheduled for 2015)
 * Sania (may be confusing with Sonia, in EPac)
 * Sarika (Used in WPac last year)
 * Sasha
 * Savannah
 * Sebastiana (not too far from Sebastien, but who knows...)
 * Sedona
 * Selina
 * Stephanie
 * Shannon

IMO, these are the chances of seeing one of the replacement names being used from my list:

Definite (>80%): Fortunately, there are no guarenteed retirements this year.

Likely (60-80%): Iestin - Isaac sure has caused a lot of damage to the Gulf Coast, but if Juan in 1985 wasn't retired, then Isaac has a chance of staying.

Possible (40-60%): Shelby - Things are getting rough with Sandy.

Unlikely (20-40%) - Delia - Debby did cause a great deal of flooding, and it's possible.

Doubtful (5-20%) - Ezra - Ernesto did cause some trouble in Mexico, but if Alex, Emily, Karl, and Matthew weren't removed, Ernie won't. Bora - Beryl did cause some hype, but not enough for retirement.

No way (<5%) - All other names

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:46, October 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think Sandy will be retired now. I think Isaac and Sandy are both getting the chop and they'll be replaced by Icarus and Sheena, as I suggested. We'll have to wait and see though. Ryan1000 02:49, October 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * My picks are Irving and Stephanie, both by a landslide. --HurricaneMaker99 02:53, October 26, 2012 (UTC)

Of course, we don't know what the WMO will do (2007), but I hope they choose some descent names. Any of the "I" or "S" names mentioned above will do, except Isa, Izzy, and Ira may sound more feminine than masculine for Isaac. Any of the "S" names I mentioned are fair game for Sandy, but I like Sheena. Ryan1000 11:41, October 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * For Isaac: Irving or Izzy, for Sandy: Sheena or Stella. 112.201.169.164 15:20, October 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Okaii, but I THINK WE NEED A SHANIQUA!! :D And an Iqbal. those are my picks. Shaniqua and Iqbal. So see you in 2018 Shaniqua and Iqbal. 188.223.248.201 17:57, October 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm sorry Liz, but I really do not think the WMO will replace any of these current names with those names. No offence, but they seem a little too weird and made up. The WMO usually picks popular or sophisticated names that are used in countries surrounding the Atlantic. STO12 (talk) 21:09, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

It is way to early to tell, but since models are really expected a major disaster out of this system, it doesn't hurt to predict. Here are a few I've found:


 * Savannah (one of my top picks)
 * Stella
 * Sylvia
 * Sarah
 * Sariah
 * Sasha
 * Scarlet (one of top picks)
 * Sharon
 * Selene
 * Shannon
 * Shanelle
 * Sheila
 * Shelby (one of my top picks)
 * Sheridan
 * Sierra
 * Shelly
 * Sophie
 * Stacy
 * Suzanne

There is a lot, but I think that Sandy will be replaced with rather Savannah, Scarlet, or Shelby. STO12 (talk) 21:09, October 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * (Im back now after excercising, watching x factor, doing homework and revision, and having dinner) Ok... Selena like Selena Gomez would be okay... but I contacted the un's wmo and asked them if shaniqua would be used, or possibly shakeela or sasha or shaqueela. this is what I said:

yo, can shaniqua be used for a hurricane replacement name for sandy in 2018. ideas sasha sibhoan shaniqua shaqueela shakeela please can isaac be replaced by iqbal ibrahim iggy? ty and why in epac 2013 there is cosme and kiko you put as boys names and they are girls names (cosme is a greek girls name and kiko is a japanese girls name) can it be changed to colton and kallum?

Okay ppl, what d'yall think? Sinead would be good too! (like Sinaed O'Connor) And, some hurricane names are even made up! jova! humberto! come to think of them! they are made up... LOL 188.223.248.201 21:41, October 27, 2012 (UTC) BehindTheName says names like Kiko, Kirby, and Cosme can be either male or female, even though they sound odd. I still would pick Icarus and Sheena to replace Isaac and Sandy. My secondary choices would probrably be Irving and Stacy. My only hope is that the WMO doesn't pick stupid sh!t like Dorian/Fernand in 2007 and Gonzalo in 2008. Then again, it's almost impossible to predict what the WMO will do and no one really knows for sure. Ryan1000 21:59, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

Otto, the WMO can pick whatever name it wants to (Dorian, Fernand, Nestor, Gonzalo, Karina, Illeana, Rina, Sean, Humberto, Lorenzo, Olga, Ida, etc.) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:57, October 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * But, all of those names are commonly used, and they are not made up. Dorian, Nestor, Karina, Ileana, Rina, Sean, and Ida are all commonly used in the U.S. and the U.K.. The names Fernand, Gonzalo, Jova, Humberto, and Lorenzo are all commonly used in Latin America Countries. The name Olga is kind of dispersed throughout all of those countries, but is most commonly used in Russia. The names Hermine and Gert are commonly used in France. The list for where these names originate goes on and on. So actually none of them are made up, they are actually commonly used. I think because the majority of us live in the United States (anyone here international?), we just don't commonly hear those names, so we think they are weird. Also the WMO cannot pick whatever name it wants, they actually don't pick the name at all basically. Whatever country requests a name to be retired gets the chance to replace that name. There are also some small exceptions: Hurricane Gustav is 2008 affected Cuba and the U.S. and both those countries requested a retirement. Since two of them requested it, the two countries agreed on a name together which was Gonzalo. STO12 (talk) 14:44, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * AHA! Rina is actually a Hindu/Muslim/Jewish/Japanese name, so that name might be used with probably the British Asians in this country (UK.) I'm from Manchester, where there are a lot of UK South Asians (Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, etc,) and many of them belong to Islam and Hinduism. And, I have relatives in Latin America. And FERNAND is actually a French name. Jova? Jay-Z made that name up. H to the Izzo! V to the Izza! H.O.V.A. ANYWAY! I would pick Shaniqua (African name) for Sandy, and Iqbal (Arabic name) for Isaac. Rina (Indian,) Omar (Arabic,) Isaiahs (Hebrew,) and those names are not English French or Spanish origin. I think we need more names elsewhere! Agreed? 188.223.248.201 19:52, October 28, 2012 (UTC)




 * Those are the full origins of those names, not where they are most commonly used. I know 4 Rina's actually and they all live here in the U.S. and are full blood american. Fernand is more commonly used in Latin America than France though. Jova is definitely not made up, it is very commonly used as a female name in Mexico and Latin American countries. Rina, Omar, Isaias are more commonly used in the U.S. and U.K. than where it originates from. Also, what I meant by "originate" is where they are more commonly used and expressed. They might orginate from those places, but they are not most commonly used there. The name "Aere" was invented by English, but is most commonly used by Asian countries. So, not agreed. STO12 (talk) 00:32, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Not all of the names the WMO chose are ridiculous, but some of them just piss me off...I would stick to descent names being more likely than ridiculous names, but predicting what the WMO will do is next to impossible, so we can't know for sure, as I said. Ryan1000 00:12, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

As I mentioned in the section, I think it's possible, if not immediately likely, that Rafael could go the way of Klaus, so I'll list some possible replacement names for him: From this selection of names, my choice would be either Raul or Roberto. --HurricaneMaker99 01:33, October 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Randall
 * Randolph
 * Randy
 * Raul
 * Reginald
 * Remy
 * Rhys
 * Riley
 * Roberto
 * Roderick
 * Rodney
 * Roger
 * Rolf
 * Ronald
 * Rudolfo
 * Rudolph
 * Rudy
 * Ruggiero
 * Rupert
 * Ruperto
 * Russ
 * Russell
 * Rusty

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think Rafael will be retired. In the unlikely event it is, I would pick Ronald as his replacement. So far, I think Isaac and Sandy are the most likely storms to retire. Ryan1000 02:20, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Assuming that Isaac and Sandy get retired, my picks for replacement names are Ippolito and Silvia, respectively. Also, if Rafael gets retired (which is indeed possible since it affected two countries with historically low retirement standards - France and Canada), my pick for replacement would be Renato. Andros 1337 (talk) 02:43, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Here it goes:


 * Isaac=Irving/Inigo, Rafael=Russ/Rupert/Rod, Sandy=Stephanie/Stella


 * Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:43, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Or...
 * ISAAC -> IQBAL, RAFAEL -> ROSS, SANDY -> SHANIQUA
 * 188.223.248.201 19:52, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Canada doesn't have low retirement standards; it kinda depends (as Darren said near the beginning of retirements part 1) on how much media attention it gets. He said if a storm like Juan or Igor is described as the worst to hit them in 100 years, ect, it has a better chance of being retired. I don't always like that, but it is the case most of the time. Klaus was described as one of Martinique's worst storms ever, even though damage never got past a million dolars worth. I don't recall Rafael being that bad for the Lesser Antillies, kinda like Otto of 2010, but it's slightly possible. I still think that Isaac will be replaced by Icarus and Sandy will be replaced by Sheena. Ryan1000 11:14, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * What about Sheera? From Ice Age 4 Continental Drift, played by Jennifer Lopez (J.Lo?) Sasha (Like the Bratz Dolls and Sasha Striker from iCarly) could work too. Stella (McCartney, who designed the London 2012 Olympic Outfits for Team GB) seems like a good idea too. Shaqueela/Shakeela (I know someone with this name) is good too. Shaniqua is epic too! I don't want any "boring" names like Sue on the list. People are getting fed up of those kinds of stuff. Agreed people? 188.223.248.201 19:52, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Ryan why do some names tick you off? Gonzalo,Nestor and Dorian are very popular names in Latin America and they were chosen for the damage they cause in there so it is logical the the WHO would choose those names. and for replacements I say Ira for Isaac and Stephanie or Sabrina for Sandy.Allanjeffs 20:35, October 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm actually not bad with Nestor, but I personally don't think names like Dorian, Fernand, and Gonzalo are descent names. They might not be ridiculous in everyone's opinion, but I don't like them personally. I mentioned above that Fernand (a French name) is absolutely ridiculous because Felix hit a Spanish-speaking country. Why not replace him with Fernando, the Spanish version of Fernand? I like all of the "S" names I mentioned above, but my personal pick is Sheena. Ira is also an option for Isaac since the WMO seems to like short "I" names and it CAN be male, but I view it as being more Feminine-like than Masculine-like. Then again, as I said above, names like Ira, Kelly, Kirby, and Isa can be either male or female, even though it sounds odd. I would replace Isaac with Icarus, though I also like Irving, Ignatius, and Ioan. I would look at descent, well-known names to be most likely for replacements, but we can't really tell for sure. Ryan1000 21:43, October 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * @Liz: The only name I can think of that was made up by a particular person was Dorian, which Oscar Wilde made up for his novel. And AFAIK, Jay-Z did NOT invent the name Jova because it was on the naming lists in 1981, well before Jay-Z became popular. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:19, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * I couldn't care less about the somber, sad tale of Dorian Gray. I think the name sounds ridiculous, but it's a name either way. The WMO could replace a storm with any name they want to, no matter how silly we think some of them are, but I like the descent names the most. Ryan1000 03:15, October 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Though there's a chance, I don't think that Sasha will be used as the replacement name for Sandy, as Sasha is the name of one of the children of the current President of United States (Barack Obama) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:52, October 29, 2012 (UTC)

Post-season changes
We still have a month and a week until the season is over for us, but NHC hasn't released any TCR's yet for the Atlantic. Does anyone have speculations on post-season changes they might do? Here's what I think will happen and why: There's nothing else I think will happen as of now. Maybe some minor pressure or wind adjustments with other storms, but these are the only major ones that will happen IMO. Ryan1000 16:46, October 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Tropical Storm Beryl - 70 mph → 75 mph - 55% - I'm not completely convinced they'll change this to being a hurricane in post-season, but there's a chance.
 * 98L.INVEST (Late July) → Tropical Storm Five - 75% - Initially I didn't think this was much, but after some thought, I think NHC refused to upgraded this because they thought it wasn't worth it at that time. Look at this and tell me 98L wasn't a tropical storm briefly.
 * Hurricane Ernesto - 85 mph → 100 mph - 40% - There is a chance it might be upgraded to cat. 2 in post-season, but I wouldn't count on it right now.
 * Hurricane Gordon - 110 mph → 115 mph - 55% - There's a chance this could be upgraded to a major in post-season, like Rina of last year, but I'm not entirely sure.
 * Hurricane Sandy - 110 mph → 115 mph - 65% - Might have been a major when it hit Cuba.

I could see Gordon and Sandy both being upgraded to major hurricanes in post-season, 98L in July and 94L in September becoming unnamed tropical storms, (possibly) Beryl becoming a hurricane, and (possibly) Ernesto becoming a Cat. 2. I also think Michael might have been a tad stronger, too. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:17, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm not too sure about 94L from late September being upgraded to tropical storm 15, but the 94L from September of last year became tropical storm 12 in post analysis, so who knows... Ryan1000 14:31, October 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Sandy is almost guarantee to be upgrade to a major.Gordon I would say 50/50.94L in September I say no and 98L a 60 to be upgrade to a storm.Last time I would say that Ernesto was a 2 but now will all the cat 1 having low pressure I am not sure anymore.Allanjeffs 20:42, October 28, 2012 (UTC)

Well, we never say never. Nothing is ever guranteed, but I agree it's very likely Sandy will be upgraded. Ryan1000 21:43, October 28, 2012 (UTC)