Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season/October

AOI: Far Southwestern East Pacific
Yet another one has appeared on the 5-day outlook at 0/20 and looks like it could become something after moving into the Central Pacific in the next several days. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:28, September 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:30, September 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20, I'm skeptical if it will even be anything at this rate. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:11, September 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Back up to 0/30. We'll see if this develops or not. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:44, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * This briefly went back down to 0/20 earlier this morning, but now it has appeared on the two day outlook with chances at 10/20. Looks like this is not as far southwest as I originally thought. However, the chances for it becoming Octave look quite slim. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:28, October 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/40. This one might make it. Beatissima (talk) 01:11, October 2, 2019 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
It's been invested as well. Maybe this could make it to Octave. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:54, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still 20/40. -- Java Hurricane  12:57, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/40. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:09, October 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/30, this doesn't look like it will become much. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:54, October 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * This was at 20/20 earlier this morning, but now is back up to 30/30. An interesting interaction could occur between this and the 10/10 disturbance to its west. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:25, October 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, this and the below system are expected to merge pretty soon. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:14, October 5, 2019 (UTC)

No longer on the TWO. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:53, October 6, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of 95E
This has popped up at 10/10 though I highly doubt development. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:33, October 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on the TWO. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:54, October 6, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: West of Mexico
Finally, something that could develop in EPac. 0/30 on the 5-day outlook. Could we see Octave? ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:12, October 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/50. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:51, October 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/70. Here comes Octave! ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  20:21, October 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the 2-day outlook, increased to 20/70. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:29, October 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 40/80, I expect it to form over the weekend or by early next week at latest. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:09, October 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up further to 50/80. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:38, October 10, 2019 (UTC)

Now 60/90, guaranteed to become Octave at this rate. Strangely still not invested. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  02:56, October 11, 2019 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Finally invested and up to 70/90, and could see a TD by tomorrow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:47, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 80/90, anytime now... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:23, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * 90/90! Almost there! ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:48, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/70. The window is small and this might not even surpass TD intensity. Imagine this became a 90% bust. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:49, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down further to 60/60, will it bust? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:59, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 50/50, the window is closing... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:14, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

Down further to 40/40, looks like this busted unless a surprise occurs. Wow, when was the last time there was a 90% bust? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:26, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Development becoming even less likely, down to 30/30. It'll most likely just be ripped apart by upper-level winds from here on out, cementing its legacy as an epically busting 90% failure. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:13, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20. Although it was a huge bust, maybe we should be thankful that it didn't steal a precious name off the list (Octave) 🥰 ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:03, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%, should be off the TWO pretty soon. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:24, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO, what a laughable bust. 😂 Also it's hilarious that I was the only one who ever posted about this AOI. The Atlantic bias is seriously strong with users on this wiki. These forums really need more users who are also interested in other basins. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:45, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Southeastern Mexico
New one at 0/20, we could be up to Priscilla within a week. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:24, October 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/30. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:50, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 0/40, looks to be Priscilla assuming 96E becomes Octave. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:05, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 0/50. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:12, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up further to 0/60, might be Octave instead due to 96E moving into unfavorable conditions by Monday. If 96E steals a name, this would still be Priscilla. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:46, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now on the 2-day outlook, 10/60. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:00, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

Up to 20/70, likely to become Octave now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:15, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 30/70. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:27, October 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 40/80. Unlike 96E, this will likely become a tropical cyclone. Also forecast to move right by Mexico which as of now feels a bit Narda/Lorena-ish 😐 ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:06, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
It's been invested now. Up to 50/80 and looking to be Octave. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:26, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 60/80. Land interaction could inhibit further development by late this week. Again, if this develops, it's basically going to be Lorena 3.0 (Narda was 2.0). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:47, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to 70/80, will most likely become Octave in the next day or two. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:34, October 15, 2019 (UTC)

Wondering if this might cross over into the Atlantic...? Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:46, October 15, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some model guidance forecasts a 11-E/Hermine (2010)-like situation in which it develops before reaching Mexico and re-intensifies in the Gulf of Mexico after weakening over land. There seems to be a pretty good chance that this and the other 0/30 system in the southwestern Caribbean might eventually combine and form Olga (or Nestor if TD 15 fails to strengthen). The coming days will be interesting regarding the whole Central American system consisting of this and the 0/30 Atlantic AOI. Now 80/80 on the outlook. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:41, October 15, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now 90/90, here comes Octave and possibly a crosser into the Atlantic. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:08, October 15, 2019 (UTC)

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E
PTC’d. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 02:59, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast to become a short-lived TS and make landfall tomorrow night on the southeastern coast of Mexico. Currently 35 mph/1005 mbar, still with 90/90 formation chances. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:26, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately I think it has made landfall and is getting less likely to become Octave. Formation chances down to 60/60. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:20, October 16, 2019 (UTC)

This might be merging with the other system in the GOM as it moves across Mexico and into the gulf, but because they're two separate storms, this wouldn't be directly connected to the Atlantic system if it develops. But its close. Ninety-eight (talk) 18:32, October 16, 2019 (UTC)

Down to 20/20. Ȝeſtikl (talk) 19:21, October 16, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of PTC Seventeen-E
Last advisory issued by NHC. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 21:00, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is the first ever PTC that failed to become a tropical cyclone in the EPac, and the second overall, after PTC 10 in the 2017 Atlantic season. It seems like Octave is really delaying his appearance this year... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:04, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Second 90/90 bust in the EPAC for October alone... wut... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:51, October 17, 2019 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
New one at 20/20 but this looks less likely for development due to not-ideal environmental conditions. Maybe it'll pull a surprise though, who knows... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:50, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:14, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now near 0%, not going to develop due to upper-level winds. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:43, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's dead. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:51, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: 300 Miles SW of Lihue, Hawaii
An AOI has appeared on the CPHC outlook, currently 20/20 but only has 48 hours to develop before conditions become unfavorable. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:07, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

92C.INVEST
The invest designation it got overnight. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:17, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ema
This BLEW UP. We surprisingly got another CPac named storm. Forecast to remain weak so unfortunately this feels like a name stealer. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:17, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this is not forecast to become strong, but it's neat to see another CPac named storm. Like Akoni, Ema was previously used in 1982, but neither this nor the previous Ema did (or will do) much. Ema's quite a safe distance from Hawaii, though the outermost rainbands are bringing some rain to Kauai at this moment. Ryan1000 15:23, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, that was quite an unexpected formation pulled off by Ema. Sadly forcasted to remain a weak TS, but at least we got another CPac storm.  Sandy 156   :)  18:08, October 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Um, hello, Ema! Beatissima (talk) 18:59, October 12, 2019 (UTC)

Slightly stronger per latest advisory: 50 mph, 1003 mb. TS warning issued for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument (Nihoa to French Frigate Shoalsto Maro Reef). Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:48, October 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * Weakened to 45 mph/1005 mbar. I was also a bit surprised it got up to 50 mph but it should be weakening for good from here on out. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:54, October 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * Down to 40 mph/1006 mbar and expected to dissipate by tomorrow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:18, October 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * Pressure up to 1007 mbar as it continues weakening, still 40 mph. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:28, October 13, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ema
Downgraded to a TD, 35 mph/1007 mbar, and should dissipate tomorrow. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:15, October 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pressure up to 1008 mbar, still 35 mph. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:08, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Ema
It has died, thanks for waking up the CPac! ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:23, October 14, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: 1200 Miles SW of Baja
An AOI associated with a surface trough has appeared way out into the Pacific, currently 0/20 on the outlook. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:43, October 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 10/30. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:46, October 16, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/40. Hopefully this ends the long wait and becomes Octave. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:30, October 17, 2019 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Up to 30/40 and invested. Even if it might be weak or slow to develop, I really hope this doesn't bust, especially after what happened to PTC 17-E and 96E earlier this month. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:39, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 40/40. It has its chance...better not blow it. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:13, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Whoa... it shot up to 80/80. Might be Octave sooner than I thought. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:29, October 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E
Now a TD. Expected to just loop in the open Pacific as a TS. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 20:41, October 17, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, this organized so fast. Currently 35 mph/1005 mbar. The forecast shows a name-stealer, hopefully it does better than the forecast shows. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  21:47, October 17, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Octave
And it stole Octave..well, maybe not quite, Octave could go in an 8-shaped track over the next few days, kinda like the "oct-" in his name. Would be neat to see, but it may not get very strong. Also, fun fact: Octave's pressure was 1 mbar lower as a depression than he is as a TS right now. Ryan1000 03:22, October 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 mph/1005 mbar although might be near its peak intensity. Its forecast track really is weird. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:01, October 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Already looks dead on satellite.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:33, October 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Figure 8 for Octave. On point. Beatissima (talk) 02:55, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually appears to have received a convection blowup on its northwest side. It could be alive for maybe a while longer but most likely not after 24 hours from now. Down to 40 mph/1006 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:22, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Octave
Down to a TD, 35 mph/1009 mbar. Looks devoid of convection and might be a remnant low in the next advisory. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:26, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Octave
It has dissipated after being completely devoid of convection for the past 12 hours. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:10, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Mexican Coast (possibly associated with PTC 17-E)
New on the outlook at 10/10, might be associated with the failed PTC though. Expected to move inland by late Sunday with development very unlikely before that. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:04, October 18, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 30/30. Brief TC, maybe? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:24, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Invested. Still 30/30. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:11, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/50. Hopefully it doesn't steal a name. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:01, October 20, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Priscilla
Unfortunately Steve, it did. :( Won't be a complete fail though since it will hit Mexico soon, and cause some flooding near where she moves ashore. Also, this storm wasn't associated with ex-PTC 17-E, that system merged with an Atlantic tropical wave to form Nestor in the GOM. Ryan1000 15:10, October 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Seriously EPac, another fail?! This could be worse than even the 2013 incarnation (in terms of intensity and longevity) as it will make landfall too soon for it to develop into anything significant. Sigh...mother nature...why do you keep feeding us these failures? Octave, Henriette, Gil, Akoni, and the list goes on...getting pretty tired of storms stealing great and wonderful names from the list. Although due to the land threat, at least it isn't an epic fail, but still a fail nonetheless. As for impacts, I doubt she will be anything very significant, probably not worse than say Lorena. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:26, October 20, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Priscilla
God dammit. A great name wasted on a horrendous fail. This is going to be gone by next advisory. Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  20:52, October 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * Priscilla hasn't been a particularly lucky name throughout it's uses in the past, with only two of her incarnations becoming a major hurricane, in 1971 and 1983. The former weakened to a minimal TS before hitting Mexico south of Mazatlan, and the latter was a fish. Alongside her last incarnation in 2013, the 1975 and 1989 Priscillas failed to impress as well. Ryan1000 01:31, October 21, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Priscilla
Lasted one day.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  04:26, October 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Peaks at 40 mph, lasts not even a full day, continues Priscilla's run of unluck. Sad! It did cause some heavy flooding but I doubt it was too horrible there (unless it's somehow becoming Mexico's Imelda). Hopefully Priscilla finally performs better in 2025. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:12, October 21, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Far Southwestern East Pacific
This is located to the west of Octave quite close to the CPac boundary with 10/10 chances. I doubt much will come out of this. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  03:24, October 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/20. Might even be possible to see Hone, the 3rd CPac named storm, out of this although I kinda doubt it for now. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:13, October 19, 2019 (UTC)

91E/93C.INVEST
It has just crossed into the CPac and has been invested with two designations, one from the EPac and the other from the CPac. Now 40/40 on the outlook and could very well become Hone or at least a depression before it encounters upper-level winds. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:49, October 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30. Probably not going to develop further due to upper-level winds. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:57, October 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:25, October 24, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: S of SE Coast of Mexico
Hey, remember the EPac? This just came up at 10/20. Beatissima (talk) 00:09, October 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * I don't think we will see much from this as development is only forecast to be slow to occur, but you never know. Hopefully Raymond comes this year. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:06, October 29, 2019 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Up to 20/20 and invested. This only has a limited time to get going as conditions will be unfavorable by late week. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:22, October 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. I highly doubt this will form. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:39, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. C'mon Raymond...do you want to show up this year or no? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  03:50, October 31, 2019 (UTC)