Forum:2010 Atlantic hurricane season

95L.INVEST
Yup, it's here already. This developed from part of the outflow of Alex entering the subtropical jet ahead of a cold front. The low-level circulation is developing on land, and most models send it west but some send it east. This could be like Ernesto, blowing up over warm waters but this time over the Gulf oil spill. It could also stall over the New Orleans-FL Panhandle region for several days, or it could drift east into the Gulf Stream. NHC gives it a 10% chance of development, probably because it's still a frontal system, but it could develop as a subtropical storm. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:22, July 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Not gonna happen. 70.189.242.229 18:49, July 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Right now, it looks like a subtropical storm. Its strong circulation is very near the Deepwater Horizon. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:55, July 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's looking better than at any point I've seen it, so far. Even if it doesn't develop, any sort of storminess and wind right by the spill can't be a good thing. --Patteroast 22:07, July 4, 2010 (UTC)

Woho! Special TWO. A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA IS MOVING ONSHORE TERREBONNE PARISH NEAR CAILLOU BAY. DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE COULD OCCUR ACROSS TERREBONNE PARISH...ESPECIALLY IN TERREBONNE BAY...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ONSHORE. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. I love these type of storms. YE 21:32, July 5, 2010 (UTC)
 * Man, this was a weird little system. If it had more time over water, something interesting would have happened. However, it's now over land. --Patteroast 13:29, July 6, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: North of Honduras
The outflow of Alex is helping this storm as well, but the models that do develop it send it northeastward then over the Bahamas and into New England. CMC does a Fujiwara with this one, and I'm not kidding about that, it actually accelerates this system ahead of 95L. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:22, July 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * It moved south around Alex's circulation and merged into the system farther south. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:10, July 3, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: South of Jamaica
This system could dirft northwestwards into the footsteps of Alex, or it could drift over Central America and fizzle out, or possibly into the East Pacific to affect Central America. NOGAPS usually develops systems like this all season, while ECWMF hinted at a system developing north of the Yucatan in about a week. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:22, July 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * GFS gives this system a boost from a possible Bay of Campeche system and part of 95L to head into the Gulf and hit south Texas. CMC meanwhile landfalls it on the Texas/Louisiana border. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:10, July 3, 2010 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
It's been declared an invest. It looks well-developed now, but NHC only gives it a 30% chance of development. However, it could easily become a depression by tomorrow, and it looks like it will take a track north of Alex. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:55, July 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * I've been looking at this and was going to post, but I wasn't sure which of your AoIs it came from. :P --Patteroast 22:08, July 4, 2010 (UTC)
 * Becomig less organized. However, presures are falling somewhat (down to 1009 mb per RBT). 40% chance of TC devlopment. I think it will be like Barry 07. However, I dont want this to devlop. YE
 * I'm continually surprised that this isn't further along than it is. I agree that 96L is a pretty good candidate for becoming Barry. --Patteroast 13:29, July 6, 2010 (UTC)
 * Barry? You mean Bonnie? Anyway recon is investigating and NHC gives this an 80% chance of development. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:50, July 7, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
Oops. Yeah, I meant to say Bonnie, but was reading what YE said about Barry 07 while typing. Either way... it's a depression now! --Patteroast 05:23, July 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Man, that is one sorry excuse for a depression right now. Just looking at the satellite photos, I wouldn't even say it looked like a good invest right now. It won't have much time to get its act together if it wants a name. --Patteroast 09:04, July 8, 2010 (UTC)
 * Aaaand nevermind. It's inland now. Looks like it was starting to reorganize, but it didn't do it fast enough. There's still going to be a lot of flooding, though... --Patteroast 01:25, July 9, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: East of the Lesser Antilles
CMC develops this system and gives it a Felix-like track. I think this is worth watching just for that. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:10, July 3, 2010 (UTC)

AoI:Southwestern Caribbean
Interesting little blob, has a nice cyclonic circulation. See if it develops. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:18, July 9, 2010 (UTC)
 * Dotn think so.YE 13:58, July 12, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Southern Gulf
Loosely disorganized right now, but likely to organize further and has a significant chance of development. Currently covered by an upper-level anticyclone. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:18, July 14, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's on the TWO at 10%. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:19, July 16, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Northeast of the Lesser Antilles
New system appearing as low-risk on the TWO. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:27, July 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * Don think it is goona devlop for now. YE 19:47, July 15, 2010 (UTC)
 * No longer on NHC. --Patteroast 08:07, July 16, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's now a tiny circulating system encountering some shear. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:33, July 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's back on NHC, at 10%. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:19, July 18, 2010 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Now an invest, and soon to pass north of Hispanola. It's a medium-sized and well-defined system, and NHC is giving it a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours. SHIPS brings this up to a cat. 1, and the Gulf waters it's expected to enter are 30C+. Models are hinting at a possible landfall in Texas. We could have our second Gulf hurricane of the season. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:28, July 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Up to medium risk on NHC. This is definitely a storm to watch... --Patteroast 05:58, July 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * Now at high risk. We could have Bonnie very soon. The storm could follow a track like Katrina but it's unlikely to develop and strengthen over the Bahamas. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:37, July 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * It was down to medium risk, but now it's back to high. NHC says that "A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY..." --Patteroast 12:04, July 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Oh! Special TWO issued which says, "VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED. ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA." So, either Tropical Depression Three or Tropical Storm Bonnie, very soon. --Patteroast 13:18, July 22, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three
Upgraded. YE 17:30, July 22, 2010 (UTC)

Discussion says

000 WTNT43 KNHC 221503 TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER  1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  AL032010 1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

THE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A LITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A STRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD ONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT... NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.

BECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE EARLIER.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIA     22/1500Z 21.9N  75.0W    30 KT

12HR VT    23/0000Z 22.6N  76.8W    35 KT

24HR VT    23/1200Z 23.8N  80.0W    40 KT

36HR VT    24/0000Z 25.0N  83.2W    40 KT

48HR VT    24/1200Z 26.0N  86.5W    40 KT

72HR VT    25/1200Z 28.0N  91.5W    45 KT

96HR VT    26/1200Z 31.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND

5DAY VT    27/1200Z 33.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$ FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS

So not a Katrina, but its track is sorta like Rita. YE 17:38, July 22, 2010 (UTC)


 * The oil spill is located within the cone. However, NHC currently finds it unlikely the storm will become a hurricane. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:07, July 22, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bonnie
Hurricane Hunters found tropical storm force winds. Hello, Bonnie! --Patteroast 22:42, July 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Landfall in Florida. 70.189.242.229 15:23, July 23, 2010 (UTC)
 * Man, Bonnie got shredded. Tropical Storm advisories dropped for Louisiana, as the forecast no longer re-strengthens Bonnie to a storm. --Patteroast 15:13, July 24, 2010 (UTC)
 * Gone form NHC. YE 14:32, July 25, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Northern Gulf of Mexico
This system may be interacting with the oil spill, plus it's over the warmest waters in the basin, and it's under low wind shear as well. Currently on NHC at 10%, but close to shore. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:20, July 16, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Yucatan Channel
A very large system, but under a lot of shear. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:33, July 17, 2010 (UTC)
 * Circulation is becoming better defined. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:30, July 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20% on NHC. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:28, July 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * Now off NHC, but I wonder if this low could influence the path of future Bonnie, which is unfortunately bringing heavy rains to central Haiti. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:40, July 20, 2010 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Located in the Bay of Campeche. This was invest'd a day or so ago... currently at medium risk of development before making landfall. --Patteroast 12:04, July 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Somewhat large system, this is looking like a TD and affecting the areas flooded out after Hurricane Alex. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:07, July 22, 2010 (UTC)
 * Looking pretty unlikely that it'll become a depression before landfall. --Patteroast 02:48, July 23, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Central Atlantic
This system has a low-level circulation over the islands, and a burst of convection in the ICTZ farther south. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:28, July 19, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's pretty much fizzled out by now, but cleared out a path of non-dry air. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:44, July 20, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Southeast of Cape Verde
New system, winds possibly up to 30kt, looks fairly well-developed already. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:44, July 20, 2010 (UTC)
 * IMO, it probably 98E. YE 04:11, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * 98E? Ummm... wrong basin you got there. Atomic7732 05:07, August 2, 2010 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Looks like we missed 99L (by the time I saw it, it was already on land in Mexico...), but 90L is here, and it's way out by Cape Verde. NHC's got it at 20% chance for now. --Patteroast 21:48, July 29, 2010 (UTC)
 * All the models that develop it are exceptionally aggressive with it. GFDL makes it almost a Category 4 headed in the general direction of south Florida in five days. HWRF and SHIPS make it a Category 2 over the same period. We'll see if any of this pans out. Given the fact that this is currently just a bundle of scattered showers, it was startling to fine such an aggressive forecast. To be honest, I'm not sure what to make of it. For the sake of Floridians, I hope the models are wrong (although HWRF appears to want to weaken the ridge and turn the storm out to sea and weaken it at the end of the period). -- SkyFury 05:56, July 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * NHC seems to be more interested in the wave behind it, now. Their AoI circle encompasses 90L and the new wave, and they mention that they could easily interact or merge. --Patteroast 12:21, July 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * Ah, the plot thickens. So begins the waiting game. -- SkyFury 17:15, July 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * IMO, 90L itself wont develop. YE 19:48, July 30, 2010 (UTC)
 * HWRF predicted it to be Cat 3 Hurricane Colin. IMO... I'm thinking it'll go to the carribean, strong TS, minimal hurricane. It's off right now. 90L dissipated, but the wave is still 40% chance. Atomic7732 04:04, August 1, 2010 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
The wave behind 90L has been invest'd. NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 06:39, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * High risk now. This storm reminds me of Bill last year. YE 14:54, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * 25 kts already. 9 hours till the moment of truth. Will it be Four? Atomic7732 17:26, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's up to 80% on NHC! I'm guessing a cat. 2 landfall somewhere in Florida, and the rest is pure guesswork. By the worst-case scenario, it could be like Georges 1998 but farther north and weaker. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:55, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * I hope it goes further north and pull a Bill. YE 19:17, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * It's looking like... I want to give a hurricane name, but no track have I seen that is similar to what GFS gives it (and I have a vauge idea of some hurricanes since the 1980's cause did a hurricane track classification Cape Verde, Gulf, Central America... etc). HWRF gives it Tropical Storm status by the next TWO issuance. Atomic7732 20:23, August 1, 2010 (UTC)

And GFDL gives it a minimal cat 2 on a Bill-like track. HWRF also runs a similar track, but brings it to a Cat 3 status. Atomic7732 20:25, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Now the storm is looking more like a Fran than a Georges, looking at the long-range 12z GFS here. The storm is also expected to stall over the Gulf Stream, which could either cause it to weaken due to shear, or rapidly intensify due to deep continuous warm water and anomalies. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:54, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * 90% now... Atomic7732 23:48, August 1, 2010 (UTC)
 * Or maybe it will be like Danny? YE 03:36, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * 90%? Seriously? More NHC semantics. It's a tropical depression and they know it. NHC policy is they gotta make it stand up in court, but if there aren't advisories on this thing by dawn I might just have to file suit (Forgive the pun, I couldn't resist). Before we break out the doomsday predictions, the models have been trending downward. GFDL, which just a few days ago made it a Cat 4 pointed at Florida, now for some reason doesn't do anything with it at all. Same with NOGAPS. HWRF no longer makes it a hurricane. GFS I think has a similar forecast. SHIPS likes it the best, bringing it to 70 knots in 84 hrs (3 1/2 days). I think CMC is the only other model that makes it a hurricane and well, it's CMC. So, bottom line, I wouldn't get excited just yet. -- SkyFury 05:26, August 2, 2010 (UTC)


 * It's been TD 4 in my book since yesterday. And...

HOWEVER SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
 * Yeah whatever... Atomic7732 06:09, August 2, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
25/1006 now. Because it has TD winds I am assuming it is a TC. YE 12:55, August 2, 2010 (UTC)


 * Where are you getting this? It's still a disturbance on NHC and an invest on NRL. However, the defined closed circulation, spiral banding, and collapse of a central dense overcast-like feature into the preparation to form an eye looks to me like it's not far from tropical storm strength. This could become Colin very soon, and most long-term forecasts recurve it but the trough may weaken enough that a high pressure system either stalls it over the Gulf Stream and/or drives it into New England. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * The RBT. YE 14:33, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Breaking News. It is official now! Yay! YE 14:38, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * What's RBT? Now it's on NHC. I'm predicting a weak cat. 1 landfall on Long Island based on the current track. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:52, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * RBT=best Track. See here. YE 16:22, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Kinda late don't ya think? This was Four 24 hours ago (not offically, but they know it)! Atomic7732 17:19, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * At first, it lacked a closed LLC. YE 19:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still TD... Atomic7732 22:23, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Still TD per RBT. Darnit. YE 02:14, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * looks like Ana last year YE 02:48, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * Peak intensity 60 mph. Forecast gone has been shifted to the right. YE 03:01, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

I am thoroughly underwhelmed by this system. -- SkyFury 07:04, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Colin

 * Upgraded, Eric, I Dont blame you. This system is boring. YE 14:57, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Colin
Named! --Patteroast 09:20, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Southwest of Cape Verde
Some models predict development out of this, it looks like a well-defined ITCZ-enhanced wave. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:45, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * I dont think so. YE 14:57, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Looks very impressive now. YE 16:23, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * No mention on TWO. YE 02:47, August 3, 2010 (UTC)

AoI: Northwest of Trinidad
Half of this system is over South America, but the 18z GFS predicts it will grab some moisture from the Southern and Central Caribbean before shooting up the Yucatan Channel for a landfall as a possible hurricane on the Texas-Louisiana border likely next Monday. This would be a bad scenario as parts of the Northern Gulf are 31C+ and only going to get warmer over the next six days. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:58, August 2, 2010 (UTC)
 * Called it. I had my eye on that system yesterday. Atomic7732 00:44, August 3, 2010 (UTC)
 * I was about to mention that. I saw that GFS run, which had it as a non-major hurricane pointed right at southeast Louisiana. The 18Z NOGAPS run also develops it with a similar track, although less aggressively. On the 00Z run however, GFS doesn't do much with it, but I think that may be because its forecast track shifted further west into Central America. The 00Z NOGAPS run hasn't been released yet. Everybody's watching TD Four but conditions are favorable for this thing if it could ever get away from land. I hope this one gets invested so I can see what a the other models are saying and what track forecasts are out there. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. -- SkyFury 07:00, August 3, 2010 (UTC)