Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

August
Is here, but aside from Gil crossing over, nothing's new. Ryan1000 06:30, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

The NHC is now issuing experimental GTWO's which predict a tropical cyclone's formation probability in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:24, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: West of Hurricane Gil
This AOI popped up on the TWO. It has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

I believe its 91E now.Allanjeffs 02:20, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * This could become Pewa after moving into the Central Pacific. If it develops before reaching the CPac (which I don't think will happen), it could become Henriette (or Ivo if the above invest develops).  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:16, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Allan, Wunderground does not have this invest put up yet on its tracking map. However, it has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Also, it looks like this AOI could become a re-Lala (1984), Iniki (1992), Li (1994), and/or Lana (2009) - all four of those storms begun as EPAC tropical depressions, but were named in the CPAC AOR. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The only invest 91 is ex-Dorian off of Florida. This one isn't an invest yet, but it could be one very soon. Ryan1000 14:03, August 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now it's CPac bound, and at 20%. Ryan1000 13:06, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * 0% outttttttttAllanjeffs 00:11, August 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * This AOI is off the TWO! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:05, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
20% risk, but not on GTWO. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:27, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * This is a big one some models have been showing. I doubt it'll affect land, but this could become our first major according to HWRF. Ryan1000 06:04, August 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * 20% and like I say probably our first major of the season.Allanjeffs 19:17, August 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Aside from this and the AOI near the Lessers, there's also a few waves off of Africa that could be worth watching in the long run, if they survive the dry air environment. Ryan1000 20:34, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin report is out.Up to 50knts and is the second lowest latitude tropical cyclone on record in the epacAllanjeffs 03:55, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yep, tied with Annette of 1976 and behind Adolph of 1983. Back to this, I'm surprised it's not invested yet. 40% chance for the next two days and 70% for five days. Should be Ivo real soon. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think this will become Ivo, and maybe even be our first major.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:02, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Investe'd 50%/70%. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:13, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here comes Ivo, and possibly our season's first major. According to GFS, this one could be a long-term Hawaii threat. Ryan1000 04:33, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * How do you guys know this was invested? I'm not seeing anything on Wunderground. Anyway, chances are down slightly to 40%/70%. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:29, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I still think this will become Ivo, and possibly be a long-term threat to Hawaii.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:07, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * This invest is down to a 30% (60%) chance of tropical cyclone formation, but conditions should get better for it. Man, the EPAC is really rocking in terms of named storms and hurricanes this year. Major hurricanes, no. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:54, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%/40%. I'm starting to doubt development of this system. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:01, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * This invest is slowly grinding away...it is now at a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:46, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Well, guess what? This invest is up to a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation! I think we will see Ivo later today. This invest has really surprised us. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:16, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

(Edit conflict) Holy cow! This invest exploded overnight! Now it has an 80% chance in the next five days. Based on visible imagery, we could see a tropical depression later today. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:19, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like this invest should be Ivo not too long from now. ST✪12 20:18, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 50%.This invest is bipolar,It better develop or not.Allanjeffs 00:34, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

It has a 60% chance in the next five days. It still has a couple of days left before wind shear takes over. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:10, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

It only has until Thursday to develop,Imagine we were all thinking this was going to be the first major of the season and it still hasn`t develop.The irony.Allanjeffs 04:51, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Now it only has a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Time is running out fast for this invest! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:20, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Down to a 30% chance. So much for this invest becoming our first major! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:38, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Bye, bye, 92E! It's at a 20% chance now, and as it enters the CPAC, it will not encounter any better conditions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:27, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I think this is done since this has entered unfavorable conditions. Remember when we were all expecting this to become a major? It didn't even become named. What a fail.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:52, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * It tried...poor invest. Ryan1000 17:21, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * The invest still has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now its chance has been downgraded to 10%. It was a promising storm, but it did not become anything significant at all. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Don't expect anything from this invest anymore. Its chance is down to near 0% and conditions are nothing but unfavorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:09, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Might do something like 93E which was only forecast to become a ts and this one that was forecast to become a major.Figures.Allanjeffs 15:21, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Behind Henriette
Wow, the EPac is really going on a hot streak. The one near Mexico could become a major hurricane (Ivo), and this will probrably become Juliette. Near 0% for now, and 20% for the next five days, but conditions are expected to improve, according to NHC. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this will become Juliette in a few days. The East Pacific has become really active lately!  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:05, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * This AOI is now at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next two days, and a 30% chance in the next five days. Gradual development should lead to a minor hurricane, in my opinion. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:43, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think a strong TS or minor hurricane is possible from future Juliette (or the CPac name Pewa, if it doesn't become a TS until then). Either way, this should follow Henriette and pass out to sea, missing Hawaii. Ryan1000 21:07, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested. No, this is a bit of a long-term Hawaii threat. Models have been showing it hitten there for days. 93E is more of a Hawaii threat though, since that's likely to be stronger. but 93E is also a threat to Jonhston Atoll in like a week since it's suppose to re-intensify when it arrives over there. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:17, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * I have doubts this will head directly towards Hawaii like Flossie did, but it's way too far out to tell. The Euro keeps it south of the Islands, the GFS also expects this to pass south of the islands, but it sees 92E hitting the Big Island 264 hours from now (but that's way too far out to be certain) and HWRF keeps this south of Hawaii as well. 92E could turn due west and threaten them in the long run, but this should stay south of them. It could become a hurricane though. Ryan1000 04:33, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10%/20%. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:30, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't know if this will become much. It might become Juliette if it develops before reaching the CPac (assuming the above invest develops into Ivo), or it might become Pewa if it develops after crossing into the CPac. I don't think this will threaten Hawaii that much.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:11, August 10, 2013 (UTC)
 * Shower activity is very limited in this system. It is possible it could develop, though. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:55, August 11, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now it has only a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. I doubt this will become anything significant. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:46, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

Back up to 20%. I would prefer this to become Pewa since Hawaii doesn't get a lot of named storms. I would want Juliette to wait in exchange for Pewa. The invest behind it looks to become Ivo too. ST✪12 20:20, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

This invest has potential, but tropical cyclone status is not guaranteed. It is also currently crossing into the CPAC. Should it become a tropical storm, it will be first CPAC AOR tropical storm since 2010's Tropical Storm Omeka. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:17, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

Well, here we go! This invest has entered the CPAC. It has a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:11, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

Now the chance of tropical cyclone formation has been downgraded to 10%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:38, August 13, 2013 (UTC)

And now its down to near 0%. Conditions are not favorable for any development, so hats off to this invest! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:25, August 14, 2013 (UTC)


 * Meh. Pewa will probably come later in the season,  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:55, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's still here, but its chance still remains at near 0%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, just when it was going to die, this AOI redeemed itself! Now its chance of tropical cyclone formation has been upped to a 20% chance again in the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * 80% Here comes the first tropical depression in the central pacific in a long time.I believe the last was Neki.Allanjeffs 14:52, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Looks like Pewa is coming! FINALLY!!! :D  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:59, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) Wow! I never expected this! And Allan, the most recent CPAC-forming tropical depression was Omeka 2010. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:01, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Thanks Andrew didn`t remember that little guy.Maybe 92E can have the same fate as this one.Allanjeffs 15:19, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Woah, didn't check in lately on CPac, and this guy is up to 80%. Wow. Here comes TS Pewa, first storm to be named in CPac in 3 years. Ryan1000 16:58, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * A tropical depression might be here from this invest, so its at a near 100% chance of tropical cyclone formation right now. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:09, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

90C.INVEST
Soewhere along the line, presumably soon after it got itself back together, this invest was redesignated as 90C. This invest is actually at 30%, since the AoI to its west is shearing it apart. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:29, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, like Gil vs Henriette, Pewa is dominant over 90C. This could still become Unala, but it'd better get on with it while dodging Pewa, if it can. Ryan1000 20:58, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Pewa's enjoying its breakfast; this invest is down to 10% as it essentially crashes into the northeastern edge of Pewa's circulation. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:15, August 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * I am not sure if this is the right invest, but it is now at a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:54, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Upgrade to the 2nd storm of the season.CP, 02, 2013081900,, BEST, 0, 170N, 1778W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1011, 100, 20, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, UNALA, M,Allanjeffs 01:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't see this as Unala up yet on CPac hurricane center or Wikipedia, but maybe ATCF is off on this one. Ryan1000 02:27, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Unala
Well this was a surprise. Winds are 35 kt with a rather low pressure of 998 mbar. Not forecast to get any stronger though, but hey, 2013 is now the first year since 2009 to have multiple storms form in the CPAC! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:01, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Yes I was right, I knew she was here,and yes she is dying we just need one more name storm to finish the 3rd set and seeing how this invest was upgrade from 20% to ts it may very well happen as they are two more disturbances to the east.Allanjeffs 03:05, August 19, 2013 (UTC) GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY AT 2330Z AND A 0020Z ASCAT PASS DEMONSTRATED THAT THE SUSPECT AREA FORMERLY KNOWN AS INVEST 90C WAS ACTUALLY TROPICAL STORM UNALA. Good ol CPHC.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:23, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * CPHC at it's finest :P YE Tropical Cyclone  05:57, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Central Pacific is just exploding this year. We already have our second named system in the CPAC. Tropical Storm Unala is looking to cross the dateline and then zoom out to sea. Not expecting it to become a hurricane whatsoever. ST✪12 05:27, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Ah, I must've been early then. Well, it made the upgrade just before it crossed the dateline. Won't do much though. And the 30% area behind Unala could become Wali; also the 20% area behind that has a chance of becoming Ana, if it holds on. That would make for 4 storms forming in CPac, first time since 1992 and the only time in a non-El Nino year, if I recall correctly. Pretty impressive. Ryan1000 12:20, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * I never expected Unala to come from this. If it crosses the dateline, it will mark the first time since 2009 two storms did so in one year! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:56, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * And per the CPHC, Unala has crossed the International Date Line! Yes! 2013's now the first season since 2009 to do this! Unfortunately, Pewa will just tear its little sibling apart. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:09, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Unala = cat 1 typhoony :D That's what I think. Pewa? Unala? HAHA! THE FUN HAS BEEN DOUBLED!  Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! Pinkie pie signature and infobox gif.gif 13:20, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * We have Unala?! WTF? The Central Pacific is going crazy right now! I think this will only peak as a TS.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:11, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * She is a td by the JWTC probably going to die later today.Allanjeffs 16:31, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Unala
Downgraded to a TD by the JMA. This will probably be the last bulletin on Unala. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:09, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Unala
Pewa had a yummy lunch! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:14, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Near Mexico
This AOI popped up on the TWO. It is at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. However, conditions for this system are very unfavorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:49, August 11, 2013 (UTC)

And it has gone off the TWO. Oh well, conditions were not that favorable. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:19, August 12, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Hawaii
This AOI currently has a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. If anyone looks at the CPHC GTWO, you will find the CPAC is cooking right now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:54, August 14, 2013 (UTC)

As of 0000 UTC, this AOI now has a 20% chance of becoming tropical in the next 48 hours. However, any further development of this system should happen very slowly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:34, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 60% expect this to become another tropical storm after Pewa.Allanjeffs 21:46, August 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yikes, CPac is going nuts. If the system behind this becomes Pewa, this would be named Unala. I don't expect this to become as strong though, and both this and the above system should stay well away from Hawaii anyways. Ryan1000 22:53, August 15, 2013 (UTC)
 * Oh my goodness! The CPAC is insane! After going over two and a half years without a named storm, we could easily get two at once. Looks like we are in for a wild week here. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:45, August 15, 2013 (UTC)

Oh my god, what? I was just like freaking out once I saw the CPAC graphic on the NHC website. I was just like "What the heck? There's just a giant explosion of activity! TWO 80%s wow!". This is the most impressive thing I've ever seen from the CPAC (besides Hurricane Ioke). Two large areas of activity in which could be named? We are looking to have Pewa and Unala before it's all said and done. I seriously was just in a loss of words on how shocked I was when I first saw this. ST✪12 01:24, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Hope the two are name and that a third develop so we can use the last name of the third set after being use for 13 years.Allanjeffs 03:31, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Bad news...This AOI's organization collapsed. It's chance of formation has been downgraded to 30%. Also, one of these AOIs used to be Invest 93E, so it would be better to continue that AOI's discussion up above. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:12, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * No, that's the invest that used to be 93E. This is the AoI that's at 100%. (Confusing, isn't it?) Anyway, it's approaching the midpoint between 170W and the International Date Line, so I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes Trami instead of Pewa. Hopefully we'll get the latter, but I'm not too sure we will at this point. Regardless, it looks excellent on infrared imagery. I honestly think it might be Pewa or One-C already. I mean, if it's strong enough to create hostile conditions for the former 93E... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:26, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Are you sure this is the one Dylan because if it is has been renumber.Allanjeffs 13:12, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Forget what I said upgrade straigtht into Pewa.CP, 01, 2013081612,, BEST, 0, 100N, 1730W, 35, 1005, TS.Allanjeffs 13:12, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * The last advisory on Guillermo from 2009 is up o_o Maybe it has something to do with setting up advisories for Pewa? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:50, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Pewa

 * Upgrade.TROPICAL STORM PEWA Finally activity after 3 yearsAllanjeffs 14:58, August 16, 2013 (UTC)<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">.

The CPHC advisory package has yet to make it to the front page of their site, but it's up on Wunderground. 35 kt, 1005 mbar. Forecast to peak at 50 kt just after it crosses the dateline, and weaken afterward. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:04, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * The IVCN model has Pewa peaking at or just under minimal hurricane strength. How good is the IVCN, does anyone know? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:14, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Its not the best model of all but not the worse it is not bullish like the gfdl or ships,so it might I believe she will become a hurricane or a typhoon,With the name Pewa being use now we just need two more name storms to end the third set of use and leaving us one more set.Allanjeffs 15:56, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Btw I discover that of the 4 name retired in the central pacific 3 out of 4 are with an I letter Iwa,Ioke and Iniki.Paka is the only one not starting with and I and be retired.That may mean that Iune have a great chance of being retired when use or it might pull and Isaac and be the only I veteran not being retired.Allanjeffs 16:12, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yes! We finally have Pewa. I think this will become a moderate to strong TS.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:17, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * (ec) Thanks for the info, Allan. The first name on the fourth set is Ana, which is also in use in the Atlantic and will next be used in 2015. I'm hoping that we have just enough CPAC activity this year and next year so that we will have a rare occasion where one name (Ana) is used in two different basins (ATL and CPAC) in the same calendar year (2015). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:19, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

PEWA!!! PEWA!!! Yes! Expect this to reach the WPAC! Also, the CPHC expect winds of 55 knots before it reaches the dateline. Sorry for my immaturity, but it is not everyday you see a CPAC system get named (You should have seen me when Omeka got named!)   Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:36, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Also, Dylan, that phenomenon could technically happen this year as well. In the WPAC, Tropical Storm Mangkhut's PAGASA name was Kiko. If we can hit the K name (Kiko) in the EPAC, it will happen this year too (EPAC and WPAC). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:57, August 16, 2013 (UTC) PEEEWWWAAAHHHHHHH 😃 I am so glad for this storm. Could become a cat 1 or 2 and reach the wpac. imagine if kiko did that would be funny lol 😜 Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your pinkie pie! 18:23, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, Pewa will not have enough time in the CPAC to become a hurricane, but it could Oliwa or Paka out over in the WPAC. Also, the pronounciation of Pewa is PEH-vah. And Allan, just because Iune is the final original I CPAC name does not guarantee its retirement once its used. Of the original six F names in the Atlantic, Frederic was retired in 1979, Fran after 1996, Floyd in 1999, Frances in 2004, and Felix in 2007. Even though Florence is the last original 'F' name, it is still on the list. Same with the "I"s in the Atlantic (Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Irene, and Isaac; only Isaac remains). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:01, August 16, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew that is why I said it might not be retired,but it has more of a chance than others,we just need to wait and see.Allanjeffs 20:07, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * 11am advisory keeps Pewa at the same intensity. Looking at the satellite imagery, I'm honestly surprised; Pewa looks excellent. In my own unprofessional opinion, I'd say Pewa looks like a 50-55 knot storm on satellite imagery. And I forgot about that, Andrew, thanks for reminding me! We'd have to pull a 2010 not to make it to Kiko this year. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:52, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pewa could become a typhoon in the West Pacific basin, but other than causing some unpleasant weather for a few of the Marshall Islands or Wake Island, Pewa will probrably be a fishspinner. Ryan1000 20:55, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now up to 45 kt/1004 mbar. Surprisingly small decrease in pressure given the 10-knot increase in winds. The models are really liking this thing right now. GFDL's going nuts, making Pewa a 130-knot super typhoon in 132 hours. IVCN makes it a 100-knot Category 3, HWRF a 90-knot Category 2. This could be fun to watch. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99)


 * I doubt it happen but a cat 1 is not out of the question imo.Allanjeffs 04:52, August 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pewa has intensified to 55 knots/1001 mbar. I have an Oliwa and Paka feeling right now... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:56, August 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Pewa's now at 60 knots/1000 mbar. It is expected to become a typhoon west of the dateline, which would make it the first storm to cross from the Central Pacific to the Western Pacific since Tropical Depression Two-C in 2009. Also, should Pewa cross into the WPAC, how should we handle this on the forums here? Should we continue the discussion on this forum? Or could we start a section on Pewa on the WPAC forum? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:22, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nah, let's keep it here. I'll put a link on the WPAC forum. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:51, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Pewa
Pewa has become the first storm since Ioke in 2006 to cross the dateline as a tropical storm! (Kika and Maka were extratropical when they crossed, and Tropical Depression Two-C remained a tropical depression.) Anyways, the JMA is reporting winds of 50 knots (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 994 millibars. The JTWC is reporting winds of 55 knots. The JMA take Pewa to a 60 knot (10-minute), 975 millibar severe tropical storm, and the JTWC take Pewa to 90 knots (1-minute). Assuming Pewa becomes a typhoon, it will mark the first time since Paka in 1997 a tropical storm formed east of the Date Line, but did not attain hurricane-force winds (a.k.a. typhoon intensity) until after crossing it. (Huko does not count because it already had hurricane-force winds before the crossing!) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:45, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * All the major models develop Pewa into a cat 4 or 5.Allanjeffs 12:29, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * If Pewa explodes in WPac it might be a threat to some islands over there. Hopefully it misses them, the last time we had a storm explode after crossing from CPac to WPac was Paka in 1997, and Oliwa did so earlier that year too. JMA's current forecast for Pewa takes it to 975 mbars 5 days out, but it might get stronger than that. And yeah, for basin-crossovers, we can just put a link to the page where that storm originally developed. Ryan1000 14:51, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this could become a super typhoon, or pull an Oliwa or Paka.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:15, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Typhoons Sarah and Ruby (1967 and 1972, respectively) also exploded once they crossed the Date Line. I think Category 3 status is a good estimate for Pewa right now. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:12, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan most models see Pewa moving northeast once it strength.Allanjeffs 19:31, August 18, 2013 (UTC)

The JTWC has upped Pewa's winds to 60 knots (1-minute, 65 mph). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:46, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * I never said it would reach Japan or other countries over in Asia (it won't), but it could threaten some islands out in the open Pacific on it's way. I doubt it'll hurt them too bad though, if it does at all. Ryan1000 02:27, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * 55 kt (10-min) and 990 mbar per JMA, 60 kt (1-min, 70 mph) per JTWC. Almost a typhoon by JTWC's standards. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:09, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * And now ,per a JTWC update, Pewa has 1-minute winds of 65 knots. Per JTWC standards, this is the fourth typhoon of the year! (I know it's not official.) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:01, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * JTWC downgraded to a 60-knot tropical storm. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Pewa (2nd time)
JMA estimates 40 kt (10-min) and 996 mbar, while JTWC estimates 45-knot winds. The ULL mentioned in the last CPHC discussions must be taking a toll on Pewa. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:26, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

Yep, its collapsing rapidly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:14, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

Pewa is rapidly weakening! Looks like this won't pull an Oliwa or Paka, as the ULL is really affecting it. But the JTWC predicts it to restrengthen into a typhoon, so this might not be over yet. I also have a new signature: <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:00, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

Pewa currently has winds of 35 knots (10-minute) and a pressure of 998 mbar per the JMA. The JTWC assesses winds of 45 knots (1-minute). The JMA expects a 40 knot tropical storm, and the JTWC expects a 85-knot Category 2 typhoon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:39, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

One-minute winds are down to 35 knots per the JTWC and the pressure has risen to 1000 mbar per the JMA. While the JTWC still takes it to 85 knots (1-minute), the JMA is giving up. It only forecasts Pewa to reach 45 knots (10-minute) /992 mbar. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Pewa's winds remain the same per the JMA and JTWC, but the JMA's pressure for the system has risen to 1006 mbar. The JMA expects Pewa to get no stronger than 40 knots (10-minute winds) /1000 mbar and the JTWC has lowered its forecast to 80 knots (1-minute winds). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:21, August 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JTWC has lowered their forecast peak strength to 55 knots (1-min). I thought we were supposed to get a Category 3 from this thing. Kinda disappointing, honestly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:44, August 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to a 30-knot (1-min) tropical depression per JTWC, and not forecast to restrengthen :( --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:00, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JTWC has issued their final warning on Pewa. The JMA keeps the system as a 35 knot (10-minute winds), 1002 mbar weak tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:25, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Pewa
And with a concluding pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) per the JMA, Pewa has been sheared into oblivion without ever officially becoming a typhoon. However, meteorologically, this storm was quite interesting. It engaged in two Fujiwhara interactions during its lifetime (Unala and 03C), much like Atlantic Hurricane Iris in 1995. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:53, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like this storm has departed for good now. At least it never affected land. Was fun tracking you, Pewa! Ryan1000 18:43, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula
A new AOI has stirred up in the EPAC. It is at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next five days. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:17, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Meh. I don't think we will see much from this. It might become a depression or a TS in a few days, but it will probably not get strong.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:20, August 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * I disagree, Steven! Conditions are favorable for gradual development in the next few days. For the next 48 hours, its chances of tropical cyclone formation remain at 10%, but in the next five days, the chances have exploded to 70%! We could see another tropical depression in the EPAC soon! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:49, August 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * Andrew that was another system that only appear like times in the TWO the one you are talking about is the new one which I am almost sure it will become Ivo.Allanjeffs 11:55, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't think I've ever, under NHC's 5-day outlook, seen such a difference in % chance of developing. 10% for 2 days but 70% for 5? Here comes Ivo! And hopefully a major hurricane. Ryan1000 14:51, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Dang, that much of a difference between 48 hours and 5 days?!? Well, here comes Ivo! And probably our first major.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:17, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's not gonna become a major. It might hit Baja though and provide rain to YE. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:26, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * The AOI's chances of becoming tropical are now at 20% and 80% for the next two and five days, respectively. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:27, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Its chances for the next 48 hours are now at 30%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:17, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Chances for the upcoming two days are now at 40%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:14, August 20, 2013 (UTC)\


 * Well, well, well, look at this! The AOI's chances for the next forty-eight hours are now at 60%, and for the next five days, it is at 90%! This thing is looking real good on satellite imagery, so I am expecting a tropical depression in the coming days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:55, August 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Here comes Ivo! I don't think this will become a major anymore, and maybe peak as a Cat. 1 or a Cat. 2. Anyway, I think it is almost certain we will see a depression from this. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 21:08, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
This AOI has been invested! I swear this system is a tropical depression right now. It already looks better than some of the epic fails of the 2010 and 2011 AHS's, namely Gaston and Jose. Anyway, the invest now has an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a 90% chance in the next five days, according to the NHC. Also, the JTWC has issued a TCFA for this invest. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:33, August 22, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine-E
Well, here we are! A 30 knot (35 mph), 1003 mbar (29.62 inHg) tropical depression has formed off of the coast of Mexico! No hazards are adivsed just yet, but interests in the Baja California Peninsula should monitor Tropical Depression Nine-E's progress. This depression is expected to become a tropical storm by Friday according to the NHC. At most, it should hit 45 knots (50 mph) before dissipating. Sorry, guys, no hurricane guaranteed! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:35, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this will become Ivo later today. It is also predicted to move northward, which means its remnants could provide rain to Steven  (since I live in SoCal)  . <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876  <font color="#030">T 20:15, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * If this become Ivo it will be a fail,can`t believe such a name like that would be for a fail.Allanjeffs 20:45, August 22, 2013 (UTC)

And as Advisory 2 rolls out, I have little new information to report on Tropical Depression Nine-E. It is the still the same intensity as before, but the NHC has downgraded their forecast peak to 40 knots (45 mph). Allan, 2001's Ivo was a fail; it did nothing more than give rain to southwestern Mexico. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:11, August 22, 2013 (UTC) THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.Allanjeffs 02:51, August 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Probrably won't do much at all while tropical, but ex-Ivo could bring rain to parts of the southwestern U.S. Ryan1000 21:48, August 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * The NHC is very confident this will become Ivo.btw the Ace have been 60% than normal in this basin even though with all the activity.I imagine it is because of the lack of majors.Allanjeffs 02:52, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ivo
And lo. 35 kt/1000 mbar. Tropical storm-force winds already extend up to 175 miles to the southeast of the center. Not much strengthening is forecast before dissipation, due to Ivo's large size. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:57, August 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Remnants could bring rain to northern Baja and the southwestern U.S, but Ivo won't impact land as a tropical cyclone. It'll die offshore. Ryan1000 16:02, August 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * One to three inches of rain and heavy surf are expected in the southern Baja California, even though no watches and warnings are up yet. Also, I will note Ivo has some monsoonal characteristics right now, similar to Atlantic Tropical Storm Nicole of 2010. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:31, August 23, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yay, Ivo is here! Looks like this might be an epic failure lol XD. And SoCal could get some rain from the remnants of this in a few days. Yeahhhhh :D <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 18:28, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

Advisory 6 rolls in with big changes. Ivo's winds are now at 40 knots (45 mph), and a handful to warnings have been issued. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Pacific Baja California Peninsula coast from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Lucas, and the Gulf of California Baja California Peninsula coast from Loreto to Cabo San Lucas. Also, a tropical storm watch is in effect for the Pacific Baja California Peninsula from Punta Abreojos north to Punta Eugenia. Tropical storm conditions will are forecast to begin affecting these regions late tomorrow and Sunday night. Precipitation of one to three inches, with isolated amounts of five inches, along with huge swells causing life-threatening rip currents, are expected in the adivised regions as well. Gale-force winds extend 175 miles (280 kilometers) from Ivo's center, and the storm is forecast to attain 45 knot winds. This system also has a six percent chance of becoming a hurricane, but that likely will not happen. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:15, August 23, 2013 (UTC)

And as of Advisory 7, Ivo has the same windspeeds and no changes in watches and warnings have occured, but its pressure has risen to 998 mbar (29.47 inHg). It also is still expected to reach 45 knots (50 mph) and has a five percent chance of becoming a hurricane. I expect Ivo to remain below hurricane intensity, unless it pulls a Gil. And in reply to Allan's comment in the previous section, our ACE is rather suckish due to the lack of many strong systems (a la 2003). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:46, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Advisory 8A reports Ivo is bringing tropical storm gusts and heavy surf to Baja. It remains the same intensity, but it is slightly larger, about 390 miles wide, Also, its chances of becoming a hurricane are now just two percent. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:34, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Advisory 9 comes in...and Ivo has weakened to 35 knots (40 mph)/1000 mbar (29.53 inHg) per the NHC. All of the tropical cyclone watches and warnings that were in effect for this system have been dropped. However, tropical-storm conditions are still possible for the Baja California Peninsula, and swells, as well as rainfall of one to three inches, possibly up to five inches in some areas, are also still forecast. Ivo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression in 12 hours, become extratropical in 36 hours, and dissipate in 72 hours. It still has a one percent chance of becoming a hurricane, but I seriously doubt it ever will. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:51, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ivo
Ivo has collapsed to 30 knots (35 mph)/1002 mbar (29.59 inHg). Surf, rain, and gale-force gusts are all still possible for Baja. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:00, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

As Ivo continues to accelerate, it should spread its moisture all across northern Baja California and the Southwestern United States. Steven and YE, get ready for some rain! Also, Ivo is still the same intensity as it was during my last post. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:29, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, it already feels a little humid outside. Must be Ivo's tropical moisture coming in... <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:33, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah it's moisture is extending into parts of Arizona, Nevada, and California. I don't think it'll be anything bad though. They could use some rain actually. Ryan1000 16:45, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Should help the firefighters in California as there have been fires all over the state.Allanjeffs 17:02, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Ivo
As Invests 95E and 95L rise, Ivo dies. Although the system has degenerated, moisture should continue to spread across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern United States throughout today and tomorrow. This could cause some flash flooding in those regions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:41, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

92C.INVEST
This one is behind Unala, and at 30%. Hopefully it becomes Wali. :D Ryan1000 12:26, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Man, the CPAC is acting like the EPac did during the good old 80's and 90's. :) Also, I would like to point out a record this invest might break. If it developes, the 2013 Pacific hurricane season will have gotten its third earliest CPAC named storm ever, easily eclipsing 1984's Tropical Storm Moke, which formed on September 4. Source: some old revision of the List of Pacific hurricanes Wikipedia page. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:04, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

The CPAC is really going crazy right now! I hope this becomes Wali, and the other AOI becomes Ana. :D  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:15, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

And now 92C's chances of tropical cyclone formation are now at 40%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:02, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-C
And here comes Wali. (post left by Allan)

And now the CPHC has it up. What is going on in the CPAC? After being dead for three years, three tropical depressions come at once!!! Just a little wind increase and Moke '84's record as the earliest third-named CPAC system on record will be beaten big time. One more CPAC storm and we will tie 1982! I thought this was a La Nina! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

ooooo I get it. Will this cross the WPAC? Probably. Walli the Whale. Let's play Where's Wali! Ok. This should be a TS. THIS IS PINKAMENA 20:45, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * A storm a day keeps the critics away :P -- Isaac829 E-Mail  21:05, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * I doubt it'll be stronger than a minimal TS at most, but 3 storms is descent for CPac. The AOI behind this one is now 10% and weakening. Ryan1000 21:05, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

I don't think this will become Wali. It is expected to remain a tropical depression as it barely crosses the international dateline. It would be pretty incredible if it does become Wali though. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 22:28, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-C has crossed the International Date Line. I bet you this is the first EPAC season in history to have three consecutive storms cross from the CPAC to the WPAC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:14, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * The CPAC has really been going crazy lately! I don't think we will see a tropical storm from this, but 3 consecutive storms crossing from the CPAC to the WPAC? How incredible! As what Andrew said above, this could be the first time on record that this happened! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 22:06, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, the JTWC has issued its last advisory on the depression. It should be long forgotten impactwise, but meteorologically, it set a record. To my knowledge, 2013 is now the second Pacific hurricane season in history to have three depressions cross from the CPAC to the WPAC. This didn't happen in 1982, 1984, 1992, 1994, 2009, or any other Pacific season except 2002. And even then, one of the depressions was not acknowledged by the CPHC. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:51, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression Three-C
Both the JTWC and JMA have stopped tracking this depression. Farewell, Three-C! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:43, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: West of Mexico
We have a new AOI! It has a near 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and a 20% chance in the next five days. Slow development is possible as it remain stationary. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:02, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

The AOI's chances for formation are now at 10% and 30% for the next two and five days, respectively. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:14, August 20, 2013 (UTC)

Its chances of becoming tropical for the next five days are now at 40%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:52, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Chances of formation in the next 48 hours are now at 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:51, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

The AOI to the east of this is ripping it apart...its chances for the next five days have been downgraded to 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:27, August 22, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine-E is really ripping apart this AOI...now its chances of formation are at 10% for both the next 48 hours and five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:09, August 22, 2013 (UTC)

It's off the TWO! <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 20:18, August 22, 2013 (UTC)

93C.INVEST
New one up on CPac, 10% as of now. Man, they've been going quite crazy lately. Ryan1000 13:22, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dude, seriously, what's up with the CPac? I thought they are supposed to be an inactive basin. Anyway, I hope this becomes Wali. :D <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:50, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

This AOI should be slow to develop, if it does. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:51, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

And this invest went off the TWO. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:32, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

God dammit...well, I guess Wali will come later, <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:14, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Southeast of Ivo
This AOI just popped up on the TWO. Its chances of becoming tropical for the next two and five days are at 10% and 70%, respectively. It does not look very organized at the moment, but Romeo might get a "special treat" from his wife. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:51, August 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah I think this'll become somthing big. I'm hoping we finally get a major in here, we're running late on schedule. We should have at least 2 majors at this point for EPac, but we've had none. Ryan1000 22:15, August 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * All the models are showing a major with this one and it would probably be a cat 4 as 2007 and 2001 where Juliette was the big storm.Allanjeffs 23:38, August 24, 2013 (UTC)
 * You mean 1995 and 2001, Allan? The 2007 incarnation of Juliette never even became a hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:00, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * mmm sorry I was confuse with Jimena I believe she was in 2009.She was a beast.Allanjeffs 01:03, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * This could be a powerful storm, though unlike Ivo it should remain well offshore. EPac is in desperate need of a major by now. Ryan1000 02:41, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * The AOI remains rather disorganized; however, its chances of formation for the next 48 hours are now at 20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * We could see something big and powerful from this. Who knows... <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:11, August 25, 2013 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Well, guess what? This AOI has exploded!!! Its chances for tropical cyclone formation are now at 40% for the next two days and at 80% for the next five days. Its large size should prompt heavy seas in southern Mexico. Also, this AOI has been invested. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:47, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here comes Juliette!!! And possibly our first major. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 18:34, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * Its chances for the next five days are now at 90%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:33, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * While this invest's chances of tropical cyclone formation for the next five days have fallen to 80%, despite lack of new organization, its chances for the next 48 hours are now at 50%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:00, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Organization has improved, so the invest is now at a 60% chance for the next 48 hours. Unfortunately, the combination of cold SST's and its proximity to Mexico might just cause another weak tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:54, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * SST's aren't cold Andrew; they're actually really warm, and it's only going to parallel Mexico. A landfall is not going to happen, but it could get very strong out to sea. Ryan1000 19:11, August 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Models are now showing a weak cat 1 :( hope it doesn`t happen.Allanjeffs 20:46, August 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * Oh well, it's better than what the Atlantic has been coming out with. As long as it becomes a hurricane, I'll be happy, though of course I'd prefer a major. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:04, August 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * It only has two more days before it enters cooler waters like the NHC are saying might be a Ivo repeat.Allanjeffs 00:11, August 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * And now, the invest has collapsed significantly. Its chances of formation for both the next 48 hours and five days are now at 50%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:35, August 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm starting to doubt any development from this. It might become a depression or even Juliette at the last minute, but I don't think it will happen. Looks like this will become a big 60% bust. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:08, August 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Ouch, this invest has just fallen flat on its face. It might not even become a tropical depression at the rate its dying. Currently, its chances of formation for both the next two and five days are now at 20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:50, August 27, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, all hopes everyone had of this invest becoming tropical should be shattered. Development is no longer expected, and all shower activity has diminished. It has a near 0% chance of developing in the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:38, August 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * And this invest is off the TWO! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:17, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: West of Ivo
This AOI has also popped up. Its chances for the next two and five days are at 10% and 20%, respectively. I doubt any development. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:51, August 24, 2013 (UTC)

Dry air is keeping this AOI from developing. Its chances for development in the next five days are now at 10%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:30, August 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * If it develops it'll be in CPac. Ryan1000 16:46, August 25, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's long off the TWO. <font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 15:09, August 27, 2013 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
This new invest has risen as Invest 95E collapses. Like its predecessor, the invest is in an area of only marginally favorable conditions, and it should be slow to develop, if it ever will. Its chances of tropical cyclogenesis for both the next 48 and 120 hours are 30%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:50, August 27, 2013 (UTC)

Although no well-defined circulation is present in this invest, gale-force winds are being reported in the system. Its large size should prompt heavy wave action across vast portions of the southern Mexican coast. Its chances of tropical formation for both the next two and five days are now at 50%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:41, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

While some are worry that we haven`t had a major,the latest  a major have come in here was October 10 and its the farthest down the alphabat had gone to reach a major hurricane which was Norma in 1981"N" imagine that.5 more letters if we want to tie the record and 6 to broke it.Allanjeffs 03:51, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

Despite the increase of shower and thunderstorm activity, no closed circulation has been found in this invest. Some slight development is possible as it moves northwestward at 20 mph, but after tonight, conditions will not be as favorable as they currently are. Tropical storm-force winds are possible across regions of southwestern Mexico and southeastern Baja California today. Its chances of becoming tropical have withered to 40 percent for both the next 48 hours and five days. Also, to Allan, there are three comments I want to make about your post. A.) If you count EPAC storms only, yes, we have five storms left to tie that record, but we have technically already had 11 named storms if you count the CPAC. Thus, we are only three storms away from the record. B.) Yes, using 1971-now data, October 10 is the latest date for a season's first major hurricane set in 1981. However, using 1966-now data, 1967 has that record (October 13), and using 1949-now data, 1957 has that record (October 21). C.) If you are referring to 1971-now data, the 'N' letter is the furthest we have gone down in the alphabet without a major (1981), but using 1966-now data, the 'O' letter is the farthest (Olivia, 1967). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:30, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

And just like Dorian and Erin in the Atlantic, Invest 96E is suffering from the same fate that killed Invest 95E. It is also about to slam into the Baja California Peninsula, and then, all hopes for development should be gone. Therefore, the invest now only has a 30% chance of becoming tropical within the next 48 and 120 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:21, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Juliette
Surprise! Isaac829 E-Mail  20:29, August 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'm not going to say I didn't expect this one to become TS Juliette, but the fact it developed when it had a 30% chance of doing so rather than when it was 50% or higher was odd. Anyways, it'll run into southern Baja, deliver some welcome rainfall, then turn out to sea and die. It's upsetting to see all of these failures this season...Ryan1000 21:18, August 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, I did not expect this invest to develop at the last minute! However, Romeo will not be impressed. This puny pathetic storm is at 40 knots (45 mph)/1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Mexican coast between San Evaristo and Bahia Magdalena. Gale-force winds and rainfall of one to three inches are expected in the warning areas within the next 24 hours. Also, tropical storm-force winds extend 45 miles (75 km) from the center, primarily to the east. I do not expect any significant impact from Tropical Storm Juliette at all. Here comes Norman (2012) 2.0... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:41, August 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * It might be a failure in terms of storms but it can still be deadly,remember Fernand people.Allanjeffs 23:20, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: SSW of Mexico
A new trough of low pressure has formed 1,000 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur. It will meet favorable upper-level winds in a couple days time, but then, it will hit some very unfavorable conditions. Its chances of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours is now at 10% and the next 120 hours is now at 30%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:35, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

Conditions remain marginally favorable for development in the coming several days. However, its chances of tropical cyclogenesis for the next five days have fallen to 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:27, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: SW of 96E
Sandwiched between Invest 96E and the above AOI, a new low-pressure area has formed 775 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas. It is forecast to gradually develop in the next two days, but hit a region of unfavorable conditions afterwards. Its chances of formation for the next 48 hours and five days are at 10% and 20%, respectively. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:27, August 28, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie Comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.
 * Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme".

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: Isaac829 E-Mail  16:59, August 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - No.
 * Barbara - 0% - No.
 * Cosme - 0% - No.
 * Dalila - 0% - No.
 * Erick - -∞% - No.
 * Flossie - 10% - Wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - No.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.
 * Pewa - 0% - No.
 * Unala - 0% - No.

ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. More to come...
 * Alvin? #No.
 * Barbara? #No.
 * Cosme #No.
 * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO.
 * Erick? #No.
 * flossie? Nah man
 * gill? Lazy fishy
 * HENRIETTE? Nah didn't do anything to Honolulu
 * pewa? Lol, no
 * uhnala? Uh, nala no.

Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions:

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville!
 * 2) Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards.
 * 3) Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name.
 * 4) Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances.
 * 5) Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * 6) Flossie - 2% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end.
 * 7) Gil - 0% - It did nothing special.
 * 8) Henriette - 0% - Henriette may have broken our Category 1 streak, but it is staying.
 * 9) Pewa - 0% - Similar to Unala, Tropical Depression Three-C, and Henriette, Pewa was a very interesting storm meteorologically, but impactwise, it should be long forgotten.
 * 10) Unala - 0% - Unala was quite an interesting storm meteorologically. However, it became Pewa's lunch before doing anything.
 * 11) Ivo - 0.01% - If previous serious storms to affect the Southwestern U.S. (Ignacio and Nora '97, Kathleen '76, Joanne '72, etc.) were not retired, Ivo should not.
 * 12) Juliette - TBA - Still Active

Here's my predictions!

<font color="#00A" face="High Tower Text">Steven09876 <font color="#030">T 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Hell no.
 * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it.
 * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough.
 * Dalila - 0% - Nope.
 * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - 0% - Fishie.
 * Henriette - 0% - No.
 * Pewa - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Unala - 0% - Didn't do nothin'. Maybe cause Pewa ate this storm up for dinner. lol
 * Ivo - 0.5% - Not much impact, but it did bring a little moisture to my house as a remnant low.

STO12's Predictions:
 * ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here.
 * BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement.
 * COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme.
 * DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement.
 * ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement.
 * FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy.
 * GIL: 0% Just another addition to our streak of cat 1's, far from land too.
 * HENRIETTE: 0% Was certainly impressive to see it do what it did. But no retirement is to be arranged. Hopefully Henriette will impress us just as much in 2019.
 * PEWA: 0% A rare hurricane, but no retirement expected.
 * UNALA: 0% A rare weak storm that caused no impact to land.
 * IVO: 5% A weak tropical storm with a lot of moisture. No large impact.

<font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:05, August 26, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan Grand Speaks:

East Pacific: Central Pacific: Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again?
 * Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names...
 * Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah.
 * Dalila - 1% - See Cosme.
 * Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe.
 * Gil - 0% - Turned out to be a fish.
 * Henriette - 0% - Became a cat. 2, but no impacts on land.
 * Pewa - 0% - Persisted longer than I thought, but nontheless, it stayed at sea.
 * Unala - 0% - Pewa ate her up.

I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. <font face="trebuchet MS">Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin: 0% fish
 * Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough
 * Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves
 * Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all.
 * Erick 0% nop another fish
 * Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur
 * Gil 0% fa-fa-fai-fai-fail,fail fail
 * Henriette:0% No my dear you are staying with the other 7 names that have been use,better luck next time.
 * Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:36, August 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Barbara 3% aint gonna happen
 * 2) Erick 1% Should go, but no
 * 3) Flossie 20% Actually, it has a better chance than some of you think. Hawaii requested Daniel 06 and Kenneth 05 after r all.

And they were still not retire,if Agatha that kill hundreds didn`t go there is no excuse for Flossie to leave.Allanjeffs 16:33, August 19, 2013 (UTC)

Actually, Allan, that is not exactly true. The EPAC is the basin the WMO randomly retires names from. Alma was retired, but not Agatha. They retired Ismael, but not Norbert or Jimena. They retired Kenna, but not Liza, Madeline, or Lane. They retired Pauline, but not Tara. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:07, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Some retirements from the WMO seem random for EPac, but Flossie's chances of retirement are still slim. Just because some random names like Fefa of 1991 were retired doesn't mean Flossie will be. I have doubts it will happen, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 21:08, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alma was retire because it caused heavy damage in Nicaragua,Costa Rica and my country (Honduras) damage was considerable in two of the three.Ismael,Kenna and Pauline all have make a lot of damage,and the ones you mention shouls have been retire too.I will add Rick the same year as pauline many in Mexico suffer more than him than with Pauline and still was not retire.I believed Fefa was retired because it means something in Hawaiian or other language that means something for them,like what happen with Israel and Adolph.Allanjeffs 12:43, August 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fefa could've been retired for being a threatening storm for Hawaii, like Hawaii nominated Daniel '06 and Kenneth '05, but unlike Fefa, they were turned down retirement. Alma caused some damage in parts of Central America, but the damage Alma caused was clearly much less than Agatha of 2010 and even Aletta of 1982 (which didn't make landfall) but neither of them were retired while Alma was. Some of them should've been retired, I disagree that Rick was that bad for Mexico although it was immensely powerful, but storms like Tara 1961, and Kathleen/Liza/Madeline of 1976 should've been retired, but they weren't. Tico of 1983 and/or Lidia and Norma of 1981 were also snubs to an extent. Ryan1000 21:52, August 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Agatha was not retire because it was not nominate by Guatemala,Alma was retire because Honduras and Nicaragua are more loosely  in retirement as they do so more than Guatemala.So they may have ask for the name.Paul should have retired too but I understand it wasn`t because it was only a td when affecting El Salvador.I am not sure if a td that kill thousands or hundreds can be retire after affecting a country can be retire later when they become a ts and don`t affect another landmass.Allanjeffs 01:15, August 21, 2013 (UTC)

Post-season changes
Alvin has a TCR, and upped to 60 mph.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:20, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * 2nd southernmost TC on record for EPac, behind 1983's Adolph. Ryan1000 12:30, August 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara's is out, not much is new. Ryan1000 06:10, August 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * It was reassessed to be slightly stronger than operationally estimated, though. 70 kts/983 mbar is the new peak intensity, versus the 65 kt/990 mbar operational peak. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, August 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * (Erick) was a remanent low six hours earlier and it its pressure was dropped from 984 to 983.Allanjeffs 21:12, August 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Nothing's too special about Erick. It did kill two, however. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:47, August 28, 2013 (UTC)