Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season

Welcome (a bit early)
Well, it's still 2011, but it's the official start of this forum... Not that anyone would care about it for now. I just felt like making it. =) Ryan1000 02:55, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Since the year has begun, why don't we make some pre- season forecasts? So, who's ready?

I'll go with:

SWIO: 

14 disturbances, 12 depressions, 9 storms, 6 tropical cyclones, and 4 intense cyclones.

'''Aus. Region: '''

15 tropical lows, 12 tropical cyclones, and 6 severe tropical cyclones.

S. Pac: 

18 disturbances, 17 depressions, 13 tropical cyclones, and 7 severe tropical cyclones.

I'll make a mid-season forecast in February, and a late-season forecast in April. Andrew444 02:56, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

SWIO betting Pools are open! SWIO Betting Pools. Cyclone10 17:51, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

There's also betting pools for the entire SHem... Ryan1000 19:53, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * My bad for creating the betting pool.10'Q.'INVEST 20:06, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...and now the SHEM cyclone seasons have started.10'Q.'INVEST 20:55, October 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * The SWIO season begins in two days. Andrew444 (Talk) (Contribs) 22:03, November 13, 2011 (UTC)

92S.INVEST
Another one near 90S.-- Cy10 -- 01:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC)

Gone.-- Cy10 -- 20:21, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

98S.INVEST
There is an area of disturb weather that has a high chance of formation in a tropical cyclone here comes Giovanna I think that would be the name assign am I correct?Allanjeffs 02:24, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

Yup.-- Cy10 -- 03:29, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09
Well after weeks of inactivity, we have a depression. Expected to strengthen into an ITC before making landfall as an ITC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:41, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

Giovanna here she comes.Allanjeffs 12:48, February 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't want to expect much out of this storm(Giovanna), but this thing just gives me bad feelings...Unlike Funso, this storm actually has a descent chance of making landfall as an ITC or VITC on MFR's scale. Madagascar has gotten better at preparations for tropical cyclones in rescent years, especially after Bingiza claimed only 10-15 lives last year. That was a great reduction from the 93 that perished after Ivan in 2008, which was a reduction from Gafilo's over 200 deaths in 2004, which was a reduction itself from the more than 1,000 that perished from the Eline-Gloria-Hudah trio in 2000. Hopefully Giovanna won't be very deadly for them, but it certainly bears watching. Ryan1000 14:53, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 12S
It's here.-- Cy10 -- 21:04, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna
Remember, the JTWC are not reliable on SHEM systems. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:18, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

Looks okay for now, but it's still going to strengthen slowly but surely as it heads WSW. Madagascar may get a surprise, but hopefully not a bad one. Ryan1000 21:24, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

Giovanna would probably strength to a cat 3 or 4 on our scale Madagascar should really pay attention to this one.Allanjeffs 21:51, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

I think this storm will hit C1 or C2 intensity. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:26, February 9, 2012 (UTC)

If I had to guess on this one's peak intensity, I would place this one's peak at 115-120 mph, possibly less, but still, an intense cyclone like that could spell big trouble for the folks in northeastern Madagascar. The death toll won't be extremely high because the're quite prepared for TC's, but still, they better keep their eyes out for this storm. Ryan1000 02:45, February 10, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna
Now a Severe tropical storm.-- Cy10 -- 13:14, February 10, 2012 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna
Now strongest storm of the season! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 18:50, February 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * Explosive intensification much? In fact, it really looks like Hurricane Wilma right now (vis). This is amazing folks! Fairly rare! (although Funso pulled a similar act 2 weeks ago). And damn, Giovanna is beautiful! It still has a few days out until land, so it should have peaked by then and weakened a bit... Yqt1001 20:27, February 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * That being said, there's actually a good chance this could hit Madagascar as a cat. 4 or 5, like Gafilo did in 2004, which was the strongest SWIO storm on record at 895 mbars. I don't think Giovanna will quite reach Gafilo's strength, but it could have terribly similar impacts. This thing is not only taking off like there's no tomorrow, but it's a very large storm too. It's hundreds of miles across and it has the potential to engulf the entire island in gale-force winds. This is starting to look really scary for the folks over there. The people in eastern Madagascar need to leave NOW. Ryan1000 20:50, February 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * I knew she would strength in a formidable storm and I have only went half a day without internet and see how Giovanna took that time to strength if I was in Madagascar I weould prepare for this storm.btw in the first betting pools I put Giovanna as the strongest of the season I would have win. Allanjeffs 03:56, February 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * Everyone would. Giovanna is going through a EWRC. -- Cy10 -- 04:08, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

Yep - Giovanna has began to weaken and is now down to 945 hPa. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:13, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Giovanna
Down...down...down...down. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:03, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

That was quite an amazing intensification! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  14:06, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

As fast as it strengthened, it powered down even quicker. That being said, it won't be as bad as I thought. Giovanna is still a very dangerous storm because it's so big, but now that it's not as strong, damage will be much less severe than it otherwise could have. Ryan1000 14:27, February 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * However, remember that Giovanna should strengthen back into an ITC again shortly. Giovanna could also make landfall on Mozambique as a MTS or STS. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:47, February 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * The water near Mozambique are hot so she could strength again to a Very Intense tropical cyclone.Allanjeffs 15:12, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

95P.INVEST
TCFA...and it's heading toward SPAC. -- Cy10 -- 21:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

Finally...maybe a storm there! 173.169.56.34 02:40, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Well - Nadi actually say that when it enters the SPAC, it will be a strong depression or a cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:29, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

We also have newly form Tropical Disturbance 10 .Allanjeffs 12:48, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone 10P
Expected to get to 65 kts in the SPAC. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:18, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
Straight in there with 50 mph. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:30, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah!!! its strengthening rapidly maybe a peak f cat 2 or 3 after it enter the high shear of the south pacific basin.Allanjeffs 14:32, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

I thought this one would develop, but the South Pacific still hasn't had any storms form there yet, and if Jasmine becomes a strong major cyclone (which currently seems unlikely), it could be a problem for the folks in the Solomon Islands or New Caledonia in the next few days. It's also expected to head due east or slightly east-northeast, which is rare for a storm in this area. Ryan1000 17:37, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Now a C2.-- Cy10 -- 03:50, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

and strengthening could peak at 3 or 4 before it start weakening. Allanjeffs 15:01, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

I'd like to see Jasmine become a severe tropical cyclone. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:31, February 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * So you want to see devastation across some SPAC islands? &mdash;12R.KIEWII 22:40, February 5, 2012 (UTC)
 * No. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:21, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

VMS now showing it going to the south of the islands with 70 kt wind. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:32, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Yep, Nadi has it making landfall on New Caledonia as a Cat 3. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 08:40, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Hope she not make landfall at that strength.Allanjeffs 12:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Now in the SPAC (FYI, for simplicity, don't move it into the SPAC bit of the forum). The official track map from Nadi shows it passing between Vanuatu and New Caledonia as a Cat 3. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:34, February 6, 2012 (UTC)
 * Just as Jasmine is about to make landfall, she appears to be entering an RI phase... [Link] 65kts as of the latest JTWC update, but not for long. Yqt1001 22:02, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine
And its here. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:00, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Jasmine looks pretty impressive. It looks like it's going to pass between New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands, so damage should hopefully be minimized, even if it does become a category 3 or 4 storm. Ryan1000 02:07, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Officially the strongest of the season.Allanjeffs 04:21, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

And we now have a Category 4 cyclone! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:30, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

This thing looks impressive! And Kiewii, do you mean Category 4 on the AUS scale or the SSHS? Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:46, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Well to find out, check the latest Nadi advisory and the latest JTWC advisory. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:19, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Jasmine's small, but she's pretty agressive-looking. Fortunately, she's small enough to miss the Solomon Islands and it missed New Caledonia as well, so damage, if any, will be minimal. But this was impressive. After 4 months of being in a coma, the SPac has finally woke up. Ryan1000 23:46, February 7, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well Jasmine didn't go anywhere near the Solomon Islands. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 23:56, February 7, 2012 (UTC)
 * Bombing out. 942 mb pressure. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  12:51, February 8, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now a C4 on AUS and SSHS scales.-- Cy10 -- 13:13, February 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * Technically Ryan the SPac didn`t produce Jasmine so the SPac woke up when Cyril form and now that is out we are again coming into a coma its true that Jasmine is in there for now but when she dies there is not going to be anything more.Allanjeffs 20:39, February 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * There's a good chance this year could tie or break the record set by last year's SWIO season as the least active SHem season ever, but yeah, other than Jasmine, which was really a crossover (like Yasi last year), the rest of the SHem is dead. Ryan1000 03:49, February 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now Jasmine is inside TCWC Wellington AoR.-- Cy10 -- 02:57, February 10, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (2nd time)
Weakening now. Just to point out, the VMS had this peaking at 931 mb. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:37, February 10, 2012 (UTC)

It's starting to fall apart, but she's not out yet. She's expected to continue weakening though, and I'd place her death date from tomorrow to Sunday. I think Giovanna's going to be the big story over the next few days. Ryan1000 20:59, February 10, 2012 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (2nd time)
Nothing can stop her! (well for at least a few more days) - Will move back into Nadi's responsibility tomorrow afternoon. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 09:22, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

99S.INVEST
Near Indonesia.-- Cy10 -- 04:19, February 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10F
And another one...-- Cy10 -- 13:11, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Its not a depression. RSMC Nadi's TDS' supersede the 3-day outlook. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 15:31, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah its a disturbance not a depression.Allanjeffs 21:03, February 3, 2012 (UTC)

Exactly Allan, as 10F's final advisory has just been issued. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10F
Now its a depression. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 13:29, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Although the advisory says 25 kts, the gale warning says 35 kts for 10F. This is exactly what happened with 04F too. So this means 04F should have been Cyril and 10F should be Daphne. (Not likely to happen anyways). &mdash;12R.KIEWII 12:08, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

And after they reach td status they start weakening right away. Allanjeffs 17:00, February 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * Gone.-- Cy10 -- 20:51, February 8, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 11F
New one here, most likely to be dumped in the bin soon. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Like all of the past disturbances of this year. Allanjeffs 23:25, February 5, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11F
Potential for this depression to become a tropical cyclone is low. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

96P.INVEST
Now 96P. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 02:45, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Cyril
And its the first homegrown tropical cyclone of the season. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:43, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Finally a name storm in this Basin btw Cyril is a male name or female? Allanjeffs 20:39, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

Cyril is a male name Allan. Being the latest first storm in the SPac on record, at best, this basin will get to 3-4 storms in total from now on out, excluding Jasmine. Even so, Cyril is only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but based on the looks of this tiny little storm, I wouldn't be surprised if Cyril could explode up to cat 1 or 2 strength before dying out. Ryan1000 22:15, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

So we got Cyril after all. Still, I don't see much coming from him. Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

It's heading out to sea. Cyril is probably a fish.-- Cy10 -- 23:20, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Probable will only peak as a weak moderate tropical storm.Allanjeffs 23:56, February 6, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It has reached C2 strengh. Now it should be weakening.-- Cy10 -- 13:17, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Down to a C1 and has moved into TCWC Wellington's AoR. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC)

Ex-TC Cyril
Extratropicale &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:37, February 8, 2012 (UTC)

Down and out.Allanjeffs 20:36, February 8, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine:

AUS: SPAC: -- Cy10 -- 00:27, February 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fina - 0% - Just another name wasted.
 * Grant - 50% - If they retired Madga, why shouldn't this one?
 * Heidi - 10% - Flooding counts.
 * Iggy - <5% - Probably not.
 * Jasmine - <0.1% - Any damage in SPAC doesn't count.
 * Cyril - 0% - No.

Mine:

AUS: SPAC:
 * 1) Fina - 0% - No impact.
 * 2) Grant - 3% - Unlikely for retirement because although there were no deaths, there seriously was a train derailment?
 * 3) Heidi - 2% - Very unlikely for retirement because there were no deaths, and although there was some minor flooding going on, I didn't hear anyone saying this was bad.
 * 4) Iggy - 10% - No.
 * 5) Jasmine - 0% - Did nothing in the AUS area.


 * 1) Cyril - 0% - No impact.

Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:05, December 29, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not any damage? You've missed a whole lot of stuff then. &mdash;13R.KIEWII 22:33, December 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Andrew, you call train derailment not part of the damage?-- Cyclone10 01:09, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I know Australia's track record is to retire everything that hits them (almost), but I still don't like being too generous. Not every tropical storm becomes retired in the region, but still, there is a descent chance for every one. Ryan1000 13:43, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Cyclone10, a train derailment is part of the damage, just didn't hear about it. :( Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  22:56, December 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the link: .-- Cyclone10 02:31, December 31, 2011 (UTC)

Time for mine.


 * 1) Fina: 0% - Yes, a fail
 * 2) Grant: 20% - The first to cause damage in this season
 * 3) Heidi: 5% - Meh
 * 4) Iggy: 3%
 * 5) Jasmine: 15% - Caused record breaking flooding in NSW and QLD

&mdash;12R.KIEWII 21:34, January 21, 2012 (UTC)

My turn


 * 1 Fina......0% do I even need to tell you why ?


 * 2 Grant......8% just because Australia retire almost everything that cause deaths or damage but i really don`t think this one is going.
 * 3Heidi ......7%less than grant because i think that it cause less damge than him.
 * 4Iggy:25% kill 23 in Indonesia and cause damage he is the highest for retirement on my part I don`t give him more because I don`t know if Indonesia retire names.
 * 5 Jasmine:TBK
 * Allanjeffs 16:25, February 4, 2012 (UTC)

Might as well:

Australia: South Pacific:
 * Fina - 0% - Nope.
 * Grant - 23% - Australia has a common track record, but I still don't think Grant should be retired, especially in comparison to what they've seen in the past.
 * Heidi - 11% - Wasn't like Grant.
 * Iggy - 4% - Damage, if any, wasn't that bad for Australia.
 * Jasmine - 5% - Most of the damage was small, despite it's immense strength.
 * Cyril - 0% - Fishie.

Ryan1000 14:50, February 2, 2012 (UTC)