Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Future Erick
10% atm. Isaac829 E-Mail  23:40, July 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow, this season is wrapping up fast! For all of us that tracked Eric in 2007, you know the drill :D. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:41, July 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * The most anticipated storm of the year is a few days from arrival. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:43, July 1, 2013 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested. We waited six years for this storm! Better not be a dud like your historical counterpart! - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  00:15, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

I am crossing my fingers for a "Hurricane Erick". If it does become one, someone should notify SkyFury... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:18, July 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yes, Sky was very upset when the last Eric was a dud. - HurricaneSpin  (Talk)  02:40, July 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Models are showing a hurricane about this it better be.btw people I believe this will be like 2008 that both the Atlantic and Epac end with the same total of storms.Allanjeffs 06:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now 30%. (see text below.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:06, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Every other Erick failed, will this be the first Erick to not fail? I'm not sure what to expect of this. Most of the models initially take Erick to becoming a hurricane, but only a cat 1 or 2 as of now, while remaining off of Mexico. Ryan1000 15:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like Erick will be a potent hurricane imo probably be the first major.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) 50% now. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Getting close. Time to get an article ready! YE Tropical Cyclone  02:47, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * It still need time by Wenesday it will be ready.Allanjeffs 04:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * 97E's organization is real good. Currently, it has been upped to a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Come on, Erick! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:35, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fantastic news, well kind of. I probably expect Erik to become a Category 3-4-ish because of the may Cat 1s were are getting right now. For more information, here is a map.  Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 20:51, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erick_70.png


 * 97E has gotten really organized now. It already looks like Tropical Depression Five-E on satellite imagery. Currently, it is at a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. In fact, the NHC predicts our fifth tropical depression will be upon us later today. By the way, happy Independence Day to all American users! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:06, July 4, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E
Wow looks like the name Erick would not achieve hurricane status unless it intensify rapidly.The NHC is predicting a peak as a mid grade tropical storm.This name really has bad luck hope it streak end this year.Allanjeffs 15:01, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now td 5 expect Erick this afternoon or tonight.Allanjeffs 14:49, July 4, 2013 (UTC)

And now the NHC has confirmed the development of Tropical Depression Five-E. Sorry, SkyFury, unless this depression pulls a Hurricane Wilma, Hurricane Felix, or Cyclone Ului type explosion, we'll likely have to wait until 2019 for a Hurricane Erick, based on the NHC forecast. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:25, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * It better. Six years of waiting and Erick better pull it off. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  03:01, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick
Hope Erick fails :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:06, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Erick its pushing its way to become a hurricane.Allanjeffs 04:33, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's showing an eye-like feature. Isaac829 E-Mail  04:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Update: Erick is at 50 knots/998 mbar. He's already stronger than his 2007, 2001, 1989, and 1983 precedents (The 1983 Erick had no pressure reading) a.k.a. this Erick is the second strongest "Erick" ever. The storm's also brushing Mexico. Come on Erick! Please become a hurricane! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:29, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew,Erick would probably be a hurricane this afternoon or night,I knew it will be strong it will probably become a cat 2 or even a major.Allanjeffs 15:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erick is mad it's wiki article got merged, so it's coming back with a vengence. YE Tropical Cyclone  16:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick is currently at 60 kts (65 mph)/997 mbar. In terms of windspeeds, this Erick is the strongest "Erick" ever. Pressurewise, Erick has 3 mbar left to go. Also, the NHC expects a 70-kt system from the storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:12, July 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erick's filled out the pressure gap; he's now at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar. Yep, strongest Erick ever. --HurricaneMaker99 20:55, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Oh my goodness, Erick is at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar! This Erick is already strongest "Erick" ever, by pressure AND windspeed! Come on, Erick! The moment you've waited for over 30 years is hours away! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ah, the good life Andy. He is even expected to become a hurricane, that Erick. Could he beat Princess Cosme's EPAC record as the strongest storm this year? He WILL smash her record into pieces. I have the latest info here:


 * ERick_party_ii.pngERICK_party.png speed probability table, could even become a Cat 3 here. And he has Bud '12 in his DNA! What do y'all expect from Erick here?


 * Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 23:23, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

The 5:00 PDT advisory just came out...and no Hurricane Erick. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:41, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still not a hurricane. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:49, July 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Still hasn't happened yet! I'm starting to question if Erick's going to become a hurricane at all. The NHC discussion mentioned that Erick's been having trouble becoming vertically stacked... --HurricaneMaker99 10:18, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Erick
Erick, you finally did it! Good show, boy, good show! They've updated the ATCF files to reflect that Erick became a hurricane at around 06z. The new advisory intensity is 70 kts, 984 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 14:56, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * The 30-year streak has broken! Now Erick needs an article. Isaac829 E-Mail  15:20, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

Congrats, Erick did it! Hopefully, Mexico doesn't get hit too badly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:53, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Told ya everyone!  Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 21:01, July 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, I went away for 4 days on my Independence Day vacation (150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg), and I missed out on quite a bit. Looks like this is the first Erick to not fail. Erick is expected to remain offshore of Mexico, so I doubt they'll be hit with anything more than a few waves near Cabo San Lucas. Dalila is all but dead. Looks like 94L won't hae enough time to make it before it ends up in Texas, but 95L in the Central Atlantic really worries me in the long run. The tropics are starting to pick up steam. Ryan1000 00:58, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick (2nd time)
Spent ~24 hours at peak intensity before dropping back down to a TS. Currently at 55 kts/993 mbar, becoming less organized. --HurricaneMaker99 19:27, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick is expected to make landfall around Baja California, as you can see here:


 * Erick_landfall.png I have this FRESH from le NHC:


 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;line-height:normal;text-align:center;">...ERICK BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...

TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      EP052013 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.  So this CLEARLY means that Erick's peak is a Category 1 (FINALLY Erick is a hurricane now) and we have now officially ended the 30-year streak of "Erick being a flop." But... look what's happened!


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">No_dalila_erick_only.jpg you can see on the photo on the right, Dalila is no longer a tropical cyclone, meaning that she has dissipated. However, advisories are still being issued for Erick and we hope that, when he makes landfall in Mexico later on today or tomorrow, he will not be as damaging as THAT EPAC storm in 2011. (you know which one I'm talking about, don't cha?) So the current information on Erick...


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">WIND SPEED: 65 mph (55 knots)


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">PRESSURE: 993mb


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">MOVEMENT: west-northwest

<p style="margin-left:24px;">


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;"> Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 19:51, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

Currently crossing the 26°C isotherm today and will be entraining quite some dry air. The circulation is already choked. So, say goodbye to Erick! Six years of waiting and finally it has actually done something. We wont be seeing another Erick till 2019, which means this will be the "Erick" for another six years. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:45, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, time to say farewell to Erick. Thanks for finally becoming a hurricane!!! And Liz, the NHC actually does not expect Erick to make a landfall. If you look closer at the forecast cone, the dots remain offshore. And impactwise, Erick will make Hurricane Paul from last year look like 2010's Hurricane Karl. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:52, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

As Erick weakens, the system is beginning to affect Baja California. Also, note this glaring typo in the NHC advisory: ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:44, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's slowly dying down, I'd say it hasn't 36 hours of life left. Ryan1000 18:14, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Erick
And now, Erick has become a tropical depression. Currently at 30 kts/1004 mbar, all watches and warnings have been discontinued for Mexico, and the system should be nothing but a memory shortly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

The Epac will probably be quiet the rest of July with one more next storm as the Atlantic continues to produce.Allanjeffs 04:05, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick
Erick go bye bye. --HurricaneMaker99 15:15, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Out its time to the Atlantic to shine :PAllanjeffs 15:31, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Btw I believe for the first time there have five name storms four hurricanes and no majors yet.Allanjeffs 15:33, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Probrably, but I think we'll get a MH later on in the season. And hats off to the first Hurricane Erick in history. =) Ryan1000 16:09, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, Erick will be remembered for its intensity, but impactwise, should be long forgotten. And Allan, this is not the first time a Pacific hurricane season's first four hurricanes did not become majors. To my knowledge, 2008 and 2003 also had this event occur (but the latter is arguable, as no majors occured during the season) . Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:13, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * He meant the first time there were 4 hurricanes, yet no majors, out of the first five storms in the season. Well, 2008 also had that, I'll admit, but 2003 didn't have a single hurricane until Ignacio in late August, with no hurricanes out of the first 8 storms in the season, just like the 2011 AHS (but that year did have some majors). Ryan1000 20:17, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Middle of Nowhere
I'm glad that I checked the CPHC today, because there is actually something going on in the world! 0% though, predicted to die out at sea. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:10, July 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * This ain't going to develop into anything because of strong upper-level winds. If this becomes Pewa, I will be extremely surprised. -- Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:44, July 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not gonna happenAllanjeffs 06:15, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this is not going to become anything at all. It will just die out at sea eventually. Steven09876   (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 18:51, July 20, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.
 * Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme".

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: Isaac829 E-Mail  19:56, July 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - No.
 * Barbara - 0% - No.
 * Cosme - 0% - No.
 * Dalila - 0% - No.
 * Erick - -∞% - No.

ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. More to come...
 * Alvin? #No.
 * Barbara? #No.
 * Cosme #No.
 * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO.
 * Erick? #No.

Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions:

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville!
 * 2) Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards.
 * 3) Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name.
 * 4) Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances.
 * 5) Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane.

Here's my predictions!

Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Hell no.
 * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it.
 * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough.
 * Dalila - 0% - Nope.
 * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane.