Forum:2019 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We're going to make the 2019 forum slightly ahead of time, but we already have the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific betting pools up, with some slight changes. In any instance, this year is using list 5, the one Atlantic naming list that has never gone one single season of usage without having at least 1 retired name since the modern naming lists since 1979, and has the most retired names from any 1979-today naming list, with 13. My personal predictions are 15-21 named storms, 7-12 hurricanes, 4-6 major hurricanes, and maybe a category 5 or two. I doubt the El Nino we saw rise up last year will last long or that strongly into 2019, not to want a bad season, but it's very possible. Ryan1000 03:52, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * I also think the El Nino won't last as long, but I do think it will last around February or March, and then a warm neutral for most of the season. However, I also believe El Nino effects will linger int he Atlantic for most of the season, i.e., strong upper-wind shear. With that being said, I think the 2019 AHS will be near-neutral season with 12-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 1-2 major hurricanes. I don't expect a C5 this upcoming season, but I do expect 1 retired name, maybe even no names being retired.  ~ Roy25     Happy Thanksgiving Day!!!  |  🦃     23:09, November 22, 2018 (UTC)


 * While I personally think the name list has no correlation to the upcoming season, I just hope it has at least one major hurricane, lol. I think 2019 will be slightly below to near average. -  PORY GONAL  13:18, November 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  04:06, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

Hall of Fame 2019
Since it's officially 2019, this year's hall of fame is now open for voting, if anyone wants to do it. Ryan1000 12:34, January 1, 2019 (UTC)

AoI: Coast of Brazil
Here we go: "WARNING NR 196/2019 SPECIAL WARNING ISSUED AT 2000 UTC - THU - 21/MAR/2019 POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 15S038W STARTING AT 231200 UTC MOVING TO SOUTH. CYCLONIC WIND FORCE 7/9 WITH GUSTS AFFECTING AREA ECHO AND AREA DELTA NORTH OF 22S. VALID UNTIL 251200 UTC." -- Isaac829 E-Mail  17:15, March 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Both of the global models seem to be forming a weak storm there in a short while, though it will probably move southeast and out to sea. Still, it would be cool to see a south Atlantic storm again, we had a discussion about Arani in 2011 many years ago, though there have been a few weak storms that have developed since then, most recently Guara in December 2017. Ryan1000 21:08, March 23, 2019 (UTC)

90Q.INVEST
Now an invest and a tropical depression.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:49, March 24, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Iba
Now officially a rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic. Did you catch my words, “a rare tropical storm in the South Atlantic”? The last fully tropical storm in the SAtl was in 2010. I predict it to peak at a weak-moderate tropical storm before it weakens. What a wonderful sight!  Sandy 156   :)  17:42, March 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Well well, what an interesting storm! A fishspinner in an unusual location is definitely a welcome sight after the absolute disaster that was Idai. Send Help Please  (talk) 17:46, March 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still a tropical storm, currently at 45 knots. Wow. This is very rare, considering that this storm is expected not to affect any land areas. (Coincidentally, the name "Iba" means "other" in another language (Filipino), and all I can say is that this system is like no other.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:06, March 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Iba also means only in Slovak, which is also coincidental when you come to think of it because it's the only storm named Iba.  Sandy 156   :)  00:15, March 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * So, do I win the betting pool, or are we only counting North Atlantic storms? ;) Beatissima (talk) 00:17, March 26, 2019 (UTC)

Good question...to the best of my knowledge, the context of the first storm formation section in the betting pools refers to North Atlantic storms forming under the NHC's AOR, not rare South Atlantic storms like this one. We didn't count Arani as the first named storm of the Atlantic in the 2011 betting pools, or Bapo and Cari in the 2015 season, so we shouldn't count this one as the first storm either. The SAtl isn't active enough on a regular basis to warrant being separate, but maybe next year we can add a section including the possibility of storms forming here. Ryan1000 11:49, March 26, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Iba
Iba has dissipated earlier today because of strong shear. It was a good sight while it lasted.  Sandy 156   :)  23:50, March 28, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over Bahamas
0/20 - North Atlantic starting early again?! ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:19, May 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not bad...I predicted in the betting pools that we would get Andrea by around the end of May this year, but it looks like we might get her by the start of the month instead, if this AOI becomes Andrea. Forecast to move over Florida and curve northest out to sea, but it could become Andrea while moving offshore. If this becomes Andrea, 2019 would be the 5th consecutive Atlantic hurricane season to start early, an all-time record. Come on, do this! Ryan1000 15:20, May 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Just noticed this AOI a few hours ago. Seems the Atlantic has started to wake up again after a couple of dormant months. Whether this forms into Andrea or not, this is a good sign that the sleeping giant is about to awake (but also a bad sign for the population of the basin).  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:25, May 01, 2019 (UTC)


 * I’m glad the Atlantic is waking up early. Too far out for me to predict if it’s going to be Andrea or it isn’t, but I hope the Atlantic has a kickstart yet again.  Sandy 156   :)  23:38, May 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * I predicted we'd get our first of the season by May 1. So when May 1 arrived, I crossed myself out in the betting pool as a loser.  Turns out I might have missed it by just a day or two!  Darn!  Beatissima (talk) 01:31, May 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 10/10. It’s currently over Florida right now. I predict that it won’t develop but we’ll see once it emerges from Florida.  Sandy 156   :)  14:31, May 2, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now over northeastern Florida; chances are still 10/10.  Sandy 156   :)  14:26, May 3, 2019 (UTC)

Just got downgraded to 0/0, last outlook. Nickcoro (talk) 13:50, May 4, 2019 (UTC)

Guess the North Atlantic was just doing a teaser trailer for its upcoming hurricane season. Premieres this June! Beatissima (talk) 17:56, May 4, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Bermuda
Don't get your hopes down just yet! New AOI south of Bermuda at 0/30.Nickcoro (talk) 18:58, May 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Welp, maybe I spoke too soon on the EPac forum, with this having the same chance of forming as the EPac AOI so far. And it's not expected to affect land (besides east coast swells and Bermuda itself, but it won't be too strong if it does so). Second chance for Andrea so far...come on, make it happen! Five consecutive years with a pre-season storm! Ryan1000 23:01, May 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Go disturbance go! Go develop into Andrea and continue the streak! Don’t let us down or else I’m going to be disappointed!  Sandy 156   :)  23:18, May 17, 2019 (UTC)


 * Upped to 0/40 on the latest TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  17:35, May 18, 2019 (UTC)


 * Increased to 10/40 and on the 2-day TWO.  Sandy 156   :)  05:32, May 19, 2019 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now we’ve got our first invest of the season and it’s up to 30/40. Will this become Andrea and continue the streak of off-season storms? Stay tuned.  Sandy 156   :)  15:59, May 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * 40/40 now. Beatissima (talk) 18:06, May 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Recon is scheduled to investigate this invest tomorrow night, and it could become a short lived (sub)tropical storm Andrea late Monday night or on Tuesday before environmental conditions become unfavorable on Wednesday. Ryan1000 23:12, May 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now increased to 50/50.  Sandy 156   :)  23:42, May 19, 2019 (UTC)

60/60...Come on, almost there! Ryan1000 07:47, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 *  CODE RED! 70/70!  Will likely become a short-lived Andrea tonight or tomorrow morning before merging with a front on Wednesday. Ryan1000 19:26, May 20, 2019 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Andrea
BREAKING:

...A special advisory will be issued on Subtropical Storm Andrea by 6:30 PM EDT or 2230 UTC.

NHC has confirmed it on their website. A STWO on Andrea will be up on 6:30 pm EST. The pre-season storm streak continues. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     21:54, May 20, 2019 (UTC)


 * Not bad! Though I lost in the Betting pools by 1 day, this is still great to see, a record 5 consecutive years with a pre-season storm. Ryan1000 22:02, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * I wonder at what point the official seasonal boundaries will have to be moved. Beatissima (talk) 22:13, May 20, 2019 (UTC)

Good point Beatissima...7 of the past 12 Atlantic hurricane seasons (excluding 2009-2011, 2013 and 2014) had a named storm form before the official start of the season (two of which, 2012 and 2016, each had two pre-season storms), and even so, 2009 had an unnamed depression in May, so 2014 was really the last season in which we didn't see May or June activity. With all of the past 5 Atlantic hurricane seasons (counting this one) having a storm form before the official start of the season, I could see a legitimate case for moving the AHS boundary to May 15 like the EPac. It's becoming less and less unusual to see early or pre-season storms in recent years. Ryan1000 22:18, May 20, 2019 (UTC)

Here it is

...SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... -NHC Nickcoro (talk) 22:29, May 20, 2019 (UTC)


 * EDIT: Apparently ATCF got the pressure wrong in their estimate, I put 1008 mbar in the Active Storms Header based on this: AL, 01, 2019052018,, BEST, 0, 286N, 687W, 35, 1008, SS ...But apparently it was 1006 mbars instead. Ryan1000 22:34, May 20, 2019 (UTC)


 * NO WAY! I just checked right now back from school and saw that SS Andrea has formed already. I was a bit shook that this invest formed into a subtropical storm. This is incredible that the pre-season streak of storms in staying alive, it’s been 5 years of that streak now. Hello to Andrea!  Sandy 156   :)  23:17, May 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * The streak lives! And its not hurting anyone! Good job Andrea! Send Help Please  (talk) 00:30, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

Andrea's still moving north, pressure rose a tad to 1007. Forecast to turn east and pass close to Bermuda before dissipating tomorrow. Ryan1000 11:27, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Andrea
Will probably dissipate today.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  14:43, May 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * An epic failure, but hey... The preseason streak lives on ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:18, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Andrea
Eventually, it dissipated without being fully tropical. Nice to see the streak alive though. See you in 2025 Andrea!  Sandy 156   :)  20:38, May 21, 2019 (UTC)

Well, that was short-lived. Bye Andrea! Leeboy100 Hello! 00:13, May 22, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I guess it was nice to see the streak live on...I'd flip out if 2020 somehow manages to continue it lol. Ryan1000 11:42, May 22, 2019 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Jaguar
Fun fact: While we're all hyped up on watching Andrea keep up the pre-season storm streak, there's apparently (according to a comment on Dr. Master's latest blog post and a recent update on Wikipedia) a subtropical storm named "Jaguar" in the South Atlantic at this same time. 40 mph/1010 mbars. This is, if I'm not mistaken, the first time on record that both a South Atlantic and North Atlantic tropical cyclone were active at the same time. What's not to like, amirite? Ryan1000 00:46, May 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * And both Andrea and Jaguar are subtropical storms. Huh, coincidence.  Sandy 156   :)  01:15, May 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Did this one actually happen? I can't seem to find much info about it. Beatissima (talk) 01:59, May 22, 2019 (UTC)

Yes Beatissima, it did, you can also see warnings on it on this link (courtesy of the Wikipedia page for South Atlantic Tropical Cyclones). Ryan1000 11:47, May 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * OK, thanks. Beatissima (talk) 17:35, May 23, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jaguar
Dissipated yesterday while remaining offshore. Ryan1000 19:29, May 23, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Near Yucatan Peninsula
New AOI! May form in June. At 20/30 Nickcoro (talk) 18:57, May 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow ok, an AOI forms just hours before the official start of the season. Not bad!  Sandy 156   :)  20:16, May 31, 2019 (UTC)

Since it's just a few hours before June, we might as well put it in June since it probably won't develop before 0Z UTC (8 PM ET/7 PM CT). Anyways, this is actually ex-91E/the AOI in front of 91E in the EPac, but moved into the Atlantic. Given that it'll move over the BOC, it could potentially RI into Barry or TD 2 before hitting Mexico, since the BOC is a highly conducive area for TC's to (briefly) form, and conditions are favorable there now. Proximity to land is the only inhibiting factor for development. Ryan1000 21:33, May 31, 2019 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Now invested according to Tropical Tibits, TWO hasn’t came out yet.  Sandy 156   :)  05:03, June 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * First TWO of the season puts 91L to 30/40.  Sandy 156   :)  05:14, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

NHC says a depression (or Barry) may well form so long as this remains over water. Given the warm SST's of the BOC and the BOC's history of having short-lived spinup TS's, I certainly wouldn't rule out the possibility of having Barry from 91L, though it won't be any stronger than Andrea if it does so. The last short-lived BOC spinup TS that we had was Danielle in 2016, the earliest 4th named storm on record in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 11:15, June 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * EDIT:Woah, 8 AM TWO ups this to 40/50. Looks like we might be getting Barry after all...or just TD 2. Ryan1000 11:37, June 1, 2019 (UTC)

60/60 now, we're getting closer... Send Help Please (talk) 18:21, June 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * It’s a possibility that 91L could form, we had other invests reach 60% or higher and didn’t form. I’m just saying, this might have a chance of forming. 91L is getting better organized by the minute.  Sandy 156   :)  18:38, June 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Still 60/60 right now. If this forms, I expect it to be a weak tropical depression at the most, maybe even a weak TS.  Sandy 156   :)  05:48, June 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * 91L is still lingering in the Bay of Campeche. Holding on to 60/60 for seven straight TWOs now.  Sandy 156   :)  05:44, June 3, 2019 (UTC)

Still 60/60 as of the latest TWO. This system is taking its time, I guess... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:36, June 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * 91L hasn't been organizing as much as it could've at this point, and now it's got less than a day before it moves ashore, likely this afternoon. NHC might declare it a PTC before landfall for the sake of issuing storm/flood warnings for parts of Mexico but if it becomes TD 2 or Barry it will be very, very brief. Though it might as well stay an invest. Ryan1000 03:52, June 4, 2019 (UTC)


 * After ten straight TWOs of 60/60 for this invest, the NHC finally downed the chances to 50/50.  Sandy 156   :)  05:21, June 4, 2019 (UTC)

And now it's 40/40. Guess this won't become Barry after all...but heavy rain and flooding are still a threat to northeastern Mexico and south Texas. Ryan1000 17:03, June 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20.  Sandy 156   :)  17:56, June 4, 2019 (UTC)

And now near 0%. Looks like 91L busted...it had a chance to be Barry, but failed. Ryan1000 00:08, June 5, 2019 (UTC)

Officially 0%. Also, I just realized we had an offseason storm; oh well. YellowSkarmory (talk) 04:09, June 5, 2019 (UTC)

And it's gone. YellowSkarmory (talk) 16:47, June 5, 2019 (UTC)

July
June sure was quiet. Beatissima (talk) 05:41, July 1, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yeah...but lack of early season activity isn't unusual, even for seasons that end up being bad. Last year had a slow start and nothing notable until September, and 2016 didn't until October. So we still have a long ways to go. Ryan1000 00:02, July 2, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Over The U.S.
What in the world, an AOI suddenly popped up in the state of Tennessee. This low-pressure system is at 0/20 rn. It is expected to move to the Gulf of Mexico, where development will be possible there.  Sandy 156   :)  17:39, July 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * I've never seen an AOI over the U.S. expected to move south and develop in the GOM before...though there was an AOI over Louisiana at one point in 2016 that would've been a TS if it was over water. That storm caused heavy damage in the state. Anyways, this might become Barry in the GOM but it probably won't be too strong if it does so. Ryan1000 01:07, July 7, 2019 (UTC)


 * Now near 0/50.  Sandy 156   :)  22:54, July 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/60 now. Beatissima (talk) 03:05, July 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code red, 0/70. This reminds me of Arthur 2014, which similarly tracked southeastwards from the US to over water. That was farther northeast though, and not the GoM. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:49, July 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now it was bumped up to 10/80. It seems like this storm is going to form quite soon. Nickcoro (talk) 11:36, July 8, 2019 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tibits and up to 30/80, this might have a chance of developing.  Sandy 156   :)  17:46, July 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * Both the Euro and GFS models are currently taking this into Texas. The Euro model has this as a pretty healthy looking system, while the GFS has this as a weaker system. Leeboy100 Hello! 19:12, July 8, 2019 (UTC)

SST's are quite warm in the upper gulf of mexico (29-31 degrees C, or 84-88 F), but despite that, few of the 06Z and 12Z runs of the models today make this storm (Barry-to-be) a hurricane at landfall, since it doesn't have much time before it turns back north towards the coast and it won't be too organized when it initially moves offshore. It does have a chance to pull that off, but it's slim. It'd be akin to Humberto '07 if 92L does pull hurricane strength off. Ryan1000 20:24, July 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80 and now over eastern Florida. Some models are taking it up to TS status.  Sandy 156   :)  16:36, July 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * @Sandy; the latest run of the UKMet is actually taking this to Category 3-4 status with a landfall on the Tx/Louisiana border. The GFS is now showing at least a Cat 1 hurricane and the Euro is showing a Cat 1-2 hurricane in most runs now all of them are showing landfall between Houston and Western Louisiana. Think this is actually going to be quite a major system. Everyone in the Gulf should be paying attention. The water temperatures are so warm, dew points high and sheer so low that the likelihood for an explosive RI is here with this system. Now it may not get to UKMet levels but I think this will likely be a huricane when it makes landfall. --Whiplash (talk) 17:10, July 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * See here: . Also hello again everyone time for another active huricane season it appears. --Whiplash (talk) 17:11, July 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 70/80 as it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico.  Sandy 156   :)  17:37, July 9, 2019 (UTC)

I wouldn't jump the gun on this exploding to a super strong hurricane just yet, if it moves quickly into southeastern Louisiana it'll only have two days or so until landfall again, in which case a cat 1 might be the strongest possible scenario. That, and according to Dr. Master's latest blog post it does have dry air over southern Louisiana to contend with, which may slow rapid development despite low shear and high SST's. However, I will say that I am concerned about what would happen if 92L takes the southern end of the possible paths it could take and moves far enough west to reach, say Houston instead of southern Louisiana, then this'll have a lot more time over warm water and might have a chance to be formidable after moving through the dry air. Hopefully that doesn't happen, many areas of Houston are still recovering from the massive damage wrought by Harvey less than two years ago. Also, if that happens, list 5's curse of always having at least 1 retired name every usage since 1979 will live on with this year...behave yourself, 92L. Ryan1000 20:56, July 9, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 90/90. Barry is about to enter the stage (unless this flops at the last moment)  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:34, July 09, 2019 (UTC)