Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season/September

99L.INVEST
NRL's showing a new invest, latest wave coming off Africa, right on the coast. --Patteroast 05:28, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 06:26, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Here comes...Josephine? I haven't seen an invest this close to the coast so far this year. We could have 10 storms before the peak of the season even arrives! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Although it hasn't formed yet, I predict TS Josephine on the 3rd with a pass near Fogo Island, Cape Verde, then a cat. 3 pass near Bermuda to the east on the 11th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Musquodobit Harbour, Nova Scotia on the 14th, then a TS landfall near Wood Islands, PEI on the 15th, then a TD landfall near Elmira, PEI on the 15th, then a EX-TD landfall near Cape Ray, Newfoundland on the 16th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * God, here we go again. This has just been an incredible stretch, starting with Fay. We've had four storms in the past week. That's 2005 sh!t right there. I doubt it'll continue like 2005 did but the past ten days have been ridiculous. I don't know what I'm going to do with regards to school. I was going to leave today, but with the conditions in Mobile being what they are, I don't know if that's a good idea. -- SkyFury 17:39, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Four numbered/named systems on the map at once would be quite the sight, for sure. If going by Wiki's list of when systems were active in 2005, I'm not sure even they ever got above a 3-systems scenario. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:49, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

NHC now has it as highest potential: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. Seasos's going wild. Isfisk 18:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * OMG, HWRF turns it into a re-Vince!! If the season's this crazy, and there are ten storms before it usually peaks, then my 20 storms might actually be un underestimate. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:12, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Chill out, HWRF is on drugs. This is the African wave nowhere near the North Atlantic. Guillaume, you are correct, 2005 never had more than three named storms active at once (Maria, Nate and Ophelia from 06Z Sep 7-12Z Sep 10), which we have now. However, that threesome were actually all hurricanes for a brief time (about three hours between 18Z Sep 8 and 00Z Sep 9). The Atlantic has had four hurricanes active at once twice before (1893 and 1998). This appears to be the Atlantic record for both simultaneous hurricanes and simultaneous TCs. Going worldwide, the Eastern Pacific, believe it or not, holds the record for most tropical cyclones active simultaneously in a single basin. On August 26, 1974, five EPAC storms were active at once: Hurricane Ione, Hurricane Joyce, Tropical Storm Kirsten, Tropical Storm Lorraine and Hurricane Maggie. CPAC Tropical Depression Olive was also active until 06Z, bringing the day's TC total to six! The Western Pacific has had three major hurricanes active at once (1987; Freda, Gerald and Holly) as well as two Category 5's active at once (1997 is the only time I know of, the South Pacific also achieved this in 1998). -- SkyFury 22:24, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Dammit. Gustav got its final advisory before Ten could become Josephine. Oh, well. At least we got simultaneous advisory for Gustav, Hanna, Ike and TD-10 at 5 AM, which is already impressive.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 13:53, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten
NRL's got it listed as 10L.NONAME. Judging by the language the NHC is using ("THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 AM AST."), I'd have to assume that we'll get word from NHC shortly. --Patteroast 08:27, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Well that didn't take long. Should be Josephine later today. --Patteroast 08:36, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Josephine
It's official. Albireo 15:13, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Fishie. That's my prediction. I think a weakness in the ridge will eventually develop and allow it to recurve. And from what NHC is saying, Josephine may not even become a hurricane. -- SkyFury 16:37, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Starting to look like it won't even last long enough to recurve... --Patteroast 21:44, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now expected to maintain itself as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:00, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Incidentally, there's apparently a bug on the NHC system. Well, either that, or else Josie has experienced the most cataclysmic pressure drop ever witnessed on earth...;-)(It's a bug, obviously)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:22, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The Bug is now fixed - the central pressure on NHC was reported as 0MB instead of the proper 1002 MB :-D--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:25, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Long term NHC track, while forecasting potential dissipation, calls for a steady intensification when Jo reaches about where Ike is now. Squarethecircle 02:01, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Josie's done. That trough is just too much for her; I don't think she can recover. -- SkyFury 06:10, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

Remnants
Big flare-up of convection for the remnants of Josephine. I'd be surprised if this wasn't mentioned in the 2am TWO as it's definitely a threat down the line. There's still lots of water ahead of her. Bob rulz 02:43, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Now 91L on NRL. TWO states that it's only partially the remnants of ol' Josie. Bob rulz 19:31, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * She's not impressing me at the moment. -- SkyFury 18:03, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: East of Virgin Islands
NHC has it at low-risk. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now an invest. Not much chance in the short-term, but this could be yet another threat down the line. Bob rulz 20:13, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: West of Josephine
CMC developes it as a separate system. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off Guinea
This system might not look too impressive, but the huge wave behind it is expected to develop by many models. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yesterday, that wave blew me away but now all that impressive convection has vanished. I also think it's too close to Josephine and is getting a face-full of her shear. -- SkyFury 16:45, 3 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Around Tampico, Mexico
There's this interesting swirl of low pressure on satellite. It looks like it has an eye, but no defined circulation, and it's over land, but heavier convection lies in the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like it's moving west, but it has some potential to perhaps influence Ike. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:18, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
North-East of the Dominican Republic, according to Navy/NRL. Not appeared on NHC yet. Not been tracking Josie's remnants, so not sure if they're linked? - Salak 16:00, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * It's possible that these are Josephine's remnants. Will be interesting to see what the NHC says in the 2pm TWO. This looks to have a favorable environment and may be a threat down the road, meaning relatively soon in this case. Bob rulz 17:33, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * TWO says it's partially the remnants of Josephine. Looks like we'll have a TD11/Kyle if this forms. Needs a huge shot of convection though. Bob rulz 19:30, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

Wow, it looks like it just got completely ripped apart. There's nothing there anymore. Bob rulz 06:27, 14 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Central Atlantic
Debuting in the 8PM TWO is a tropical wave 1400 miles east of the Leewards.--L.E./12.144.5.2 01:23, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * This one has a shot a couple of days down the road but right now it doesn't look very healthy, although convection has improved a little bit overnight. Bob rulz 10:21, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * At this early stage, this disturbance looks reasonably well organized and NHC says conditions may improve in a few days. Definately one to watch. -- SkyFury 18:07, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Now 92L on NRL. Bob rulz 18:36, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: East of Nicaragua
A convective blob. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:01, 14 September 2008 (UTC)
 * CMC brings it into the Pacific and back into the Gulf, ie. Texas. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:34, 15 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Is this the low-probability formation potential storm?? 59.10.63.30 03:30, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
 * No, the low-prob is in the other AoI in the SW Caribbean. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:36, 20 September 2008 (UTC)

Week Three
"There are no tropical cyclones at this time"--totally clean TWO. L.E./12.144.5.2 00:19, 16 September 2008 (UTC)
 * For the first time in a frigging MONTH, might I add. (August 15 - Fay forming - to September 14 - Ike going extra-tropical). And a month of nasty storms, what with three serious contenders for retirment and a fourth that has at least an outside chance, too. So very, very, very nice to finally get something of a quiet spell. Hopefully it'll last, but...yeah. "Eye of the storm" sounds more like it. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 02:22, 16 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic's tired out. I don't anticipate any activity for about a week or so, and even then, a low prob. wait-and-see invest. -- SkyFury 23:20, 17 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah, but the problem is, even if we get a good week's break after Ikey, that's still another four weeks or so before the rough part of the season is over. As I said, eye of the storm. A few days, maybe seven or ten, of quiet before things get a little hectic again.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 02:07, 18 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Gulf of Africa thing
Maybe this will die tomorrow but hear me out: The little notch in Africa just north of the equator. There is a wave on the coast there that is clearly rotating and has well-organized convection over the center, as can be seen here. It appears to be moving West or a bit south of west so it will continue to have access to warm water. We will have a record-breaker if this continues developing and moving W-WSW as it is now. -Winter123 06:08, 18 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The part i was looking at has fizzled but the eastern part has intensified. Doesn't appear to be moving much, just drifting west and there's still a definite surface low. -Winter123 19:56, 18 September 2008 (UTC)
 * An elongated E-W low at about 9N but i feel the western part, now emerging off the coast, is the biggest threat. When it emerges it will escape the shear thats well north over the azores (which is starting to look like Vince #2) and have a very good chance to develop. -Winter123 05:58, 19 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SE Caribbean
Some Pretty mean convection. Remnants of Josephine are caught up in an ULL over Bermuda so this is the wave behind Josephine. Horrible shear atm but if it let's up this could spin up quick. -Winter123 06:21, 18 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Has moved south and stalled over southern islands. I see surface rotation starting on the east side. Meanwhile the ULL which was shearing it is moving west. I have no idea how in anyone's right mind they wouldn't call this an invest. -Winter123 19:35, 18 September 2008 (UTC)
 * (same system, merged) -Winter123 05:53, 19 September 2008 (UTC)

Up as low-risk on NHC. Shear expected to decrease over the next few days. Expected to enter warm water. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:51, 18 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I've heard that this is not 93L but that seems to be unnoficial. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:12, 19 September 2008 (UTC)

93L. INVEST
Official now, expected to head near Hispanola. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:09, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
 * As if there ever was any doubt given the season so far...--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:15, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
 * GFDL predicts the system to become a cat. 3 and gives Bermuda cat. 3 winds! HWRF follows a similar forecast but weaker and farther west. Both GFDL and HWRF suggest a possible cat. 1 landfall on Long Island. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:43, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The low pressure center appears to be moving NNE, and will probably clip the eastern end of Puerto Rico. Afterthat it should execute a more northwesterly turn...and strengthening is predicted by about tau 48 and a tropical depression could form. By about tau 96, a strengthening subtropical ridge is forecast to bring the system near the East coast of the United States. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:12, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This one's actually kinda interesting. I don't know what the conditions are like east of the Bahamas, but if it survives interacting with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, we could be looking at something here. -- SkyFury 05:18, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Up to high risk on NHC... this could easily be a TD today. --Patteroast 13:07, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Models are suggesting the system will affect New England, between South Carolina and Maine ie. New York, could skip east of Puerto Rico. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:16, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * STDS issued...recon being sent. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:57, 21 September 2008 (UTC)

Wow, this thing had a happy night's sleep! I'd be stunned if this level of organization doesn't warrent advisories. -- SkyFury 17:36, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Still no surface circulation, but it could turn into a TS by the time it crosses eastern Puerto Rico. By extending the models, CMC predicts a cat. 2 landfall on Little Egg Harbor, New Jersey, GFDL predicts a cat. 1 landfall on Assateague Island, Maryland, GFS predicts a TS landfall on Moser River, Nova Scotia, mm5fsu-merge predicts a cat. 1 landfall on Yorktown, Virginia, NOGAPS predicts a TS landfall on Carolina Beach, North Carolina, and UKMET predicts the system to be absorbed by the nor'easter and for that storm to make a TS-strength landfall on St. Catherines Island, Georgia. Even SHIPS seems to peak the storm at cat. 2 strength. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:02, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * HWFI and GFDI are getting alarmingly close to NYC. NYC is one of the most vulnerable cities in the US to a major hurricane disaster (only Miami and New Orleans are at higher risk among large American cities, maybe Houston but it's inland). Worse is that most New Yorkers would laugh at you if said it, simply because it's been forever since a hurricane has hit anywhere in the region. It wouldn't take much, marginal Cat. 2 and up would be a very bad situation for them. They'll get one up there some day, it's just a matter of time. The 1938 storm, which was a Cat. 3 and killed almost 700 people, brought hurricane-force winds to Queens. And in 1893, a Cat. 1 passed right over Manhattan. Yesterday was the 70th anniversary of the '38 storm, by the way. -- SkyFury 23:52, 22 September 2008 (UTC)


 * IIRC, there have been two hurricanes to directly impact Manhattan - the 1893 storm, and of course the Norfolk/East Coast storm of 1821. The damage reports on both are inconclusive, but the damage they would do today, given that they did similar damage as when they struck, would be incredible. Now, I think the GFDL is a little too far north - the consensus calls for more of a Delaware sort of track, if that - but NYC should bookmark the NHC for the next week or so. If you're in the sort of situation they could be in, you don't want to end up on the wrong side of the deal when a few minutes a day could have saved your life. Anyways, like Dolly, Gustav, etc. before it, 93L is having trouble organizing - probably due to land interaction, and maybe shear - but those factors will decrease over the next few days, as per the NHC, and so it shouldn't be long before No. 11. Squarethecircle 03:03, 23 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's nearly stationary now, back up to high-risk. Models are agreeing on a landfall around Nova Scotia or Maine as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:26, 23 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hispaniola not allowing it to develop. Then when it gets pulled north it'll be sheared too much to develop. 60mph TS max (likely 50), probably scrape Bahamas, NC, Boston. NEXT. -Winter123 03:30, 24 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Woah! 2 high potential for a TC formation! 93L is still playing with us! Storm&#39;s Eye 14:41, 24 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kyle
Guess this is what happens when you stop paying attention to the Atlantic in September ... I stop looking at updates a few days and look, a storm! Albireo 21:04, 25 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hispaniola had torn the disturbance up but it reorganized rather quickly. I was surprised they initialized it as a tropical storm. The Hurricane Hunters found winds that supported that. Nova Scotia shouldn't like the forecast for this thing. -- SkyFury 21:27, 25 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The current NHC forecast makes it the worst storm in Yarmouth, Nova Scotia since Noel of 2007. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:45, 25 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Oooo... never seen that before. Are the black text in white disk extratropical location dots on the forecast maps a new thing? - Salak 23:34, 25 September 2008 (UTC)

When did Juan get his name changed? -ZOMG! 23:49, 25 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Uhh, that was rather random. 2003. Yeah, Salek, they changed it recently. Track's shifted west very close to the eastern tip of Maine. It's been nearly 40 years since a hurricane made landfall in Maine (Gerda, '69), could we see another? -- SkyFury 13:49, 26 September 2008 (UTC)
 * LOL WHAT? I already knew that. I was trying to point out Monday is the 5 year anniversary, and there's a chance Kyle could make landfall then. How eerie and ironic would that be? By the when did Juan get his name changed, I didn't mean literally, I ment as in when did he become Kyle? But now it's looking less likely to become a cat2. -ZOMG! 04:01, 27 September 2008 (UTC)

Nearly a hurricane now. Nova Scotia, you paying attention yet? -- SkyFury 04:05, 27 September 2008 (UTC)
 * JUAN 2! I bet anything this will become a category 2, even if it isn't even a cat1 yet. Or it will peak 90-95mph. -ZOMG! 17:40, 27 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Unnofficially, recon data has measured surface-level winds of 74 kt, translating to a category 1 hurricane. Prepare for a possible upgrade at 5pm. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:05, 27 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Kyle
Now a hurricane, and btw this is Maine's first hurricane watch in 17 years. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:48, 27 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Bob '91. Bob nearly made landfall as a hurricane in Maine, but weakened. The last time a hurricane did strike Maine was Gerda in '69, nearly 40 years ago...as a 2! Of the Atlantic coastlines that have had a direct hurricane landfall, (i.e straight from the ocean, this would exclude only Delaware and New Hampshire), New Brunswick is one of the rarest. Off the top of my head, I recall only Carol in '53 and there may have been some in the 1800s. That's it. Maryland, Maine, and Rhode Island have all had more. New Jersey, actually, is almost as rare with just one that I can remember, in 1903. But Kyle's forecast to weaken before landfall, making all this statistical talk mute. -- SkyFury 03:52, 28 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Oh man, Maine's gettin the worst of it right now. The Eastport area's getting hammered. I'll be surprised if many of them keep power. -- SkyFury 19:46, 28 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Still a hurricane, and the SW tip of Nova Scotia is getting into hurricane-force winds. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:40, 28 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Last advisory. --Patteroast 09:09, 29 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SW Caribbean
Up on NHC as low-risk. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:43, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Not a chance, it's too close to land and the wind shear's not letting up down there. -- SkyFury 05:16, 21 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SW of Cape Verde
Some models predict development, but this one's really far south. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:43, 20 September 2008 (UTC)

Potential AoI: Bahamas
May head north, possibly form a nor-easter or subtropical system on Atlantic coast, but will likely be blocked by the high and move west and be influenced by 93L. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:43, 20 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Pass the bong; you've had your share. That's an empty plot of ocean there, señor. -- SkyFury 05:15, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * See below AoI, SE of Carolinas, merged into the precuror nor'easter low. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:28, 23 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Gulf of Mexico
Or, maybe this is the precuror system for the nor'easter. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:04, 21 September 2008 (UTC)
 * See below AoI, SE of Carolinas, merged into precuror nor'easter low. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:29, 23 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SW of Portugal
Wow, this must be the subtropical low that spun off Mauritania. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:24, 21 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Fight to get it named! This formed the same way as Vince in 2005. It was an ULL and i alluded to this possibly developing about 2 days ago (see "gulf of africa thing", last post) but i had no idea it would happen! It burrowed down and became tropical and is now about to make landfall where vince did!


 * Satellite


 * Hit "animate" at the top and click full size, then "Most Recent" or if its been a while since i posted this hit "Every Other" or "every fourth" since it's about to get sheared apart. -Winter123 23:13, 21 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Southeast of the Carolinas
This is the system that's expected to become a nor'easter and affect 93L. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:32, 23 September 2008 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Up on NHC with medium risk of development in its own right. Could easily become a subtropical storm. --Patteroast 13:37, 24 September 2008 (UTC)
 * High-risk now, recon being sent, likely to make landfall in US. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:51, 24 September 2008 (UTC)
 * As what is not clear, but yes all of the models are in pretty good agreement that Myrtle Beach is gonna have a shitty weekend (Sunday might be nice though). This forecast, however, offers little time for it to get its act together. It's improved a bit during the day so it's possible. -- SkyFury 21:32, 25 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This thing's pretty strong though...almost hurricane-strength! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:47, 25 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Given another 24 hrs, it would have done it...IMO. -- SkyFury 13:50, 26 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This storm got quite impressive as it neared the coast, convection started firing around the center, the radar showed good banding and outflow around the core. I just learned today that reconaissance found evidence of a closed, warm core circulation. This may have been a subtropical or even tropical storm. One of the professors in the meteorology department at my university (who has a Ph.D and developed his own TC track model) is sold and, combined with this data, so am I. This one should've been Laura, guys. Need proof? -- SkyFury 04:39, 27 September 2008 (UTC)