Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season/October

Tropical Wave (October 1 - present)
I thought this was a better title, putting the date of my first post at the beginning, and when the wave dissipates, the "present" will be replaced by the date it dissipated. Anyway, this wave has quite a bit of convection, and is in the Cape Verde area extending from 12N26W to 17N25W. It probably emerged off of Africa a couple days ago.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:02, October 2, 2015 (UTC)
 * This will probably end up being Larry, as long as 90L becomes Kate. Owen 01:50, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Near Cape Verde
Could be something in the long run, but upper-level winds are hostile currently. Has popped up at 0/20 on the TWO.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:18, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Development is only expected to occur slowly since environmental conditions are not particularly favorable. Still 0/20.......  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:24, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 10/30 now, if it forms this will be Kate instead because the other system was an 80% bust. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:47, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * 10/20. I swear that Joaquin existing is scaring other systems out of developing, lol. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:19, October 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * And now it's down to 0/20. I still think development is possible by late this week to next week, most likely next week. And lol, Joaquin is down to C1 strength, so I don't think it would be freaking out other systems much anymore, compared to earlier. :P  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:24, October 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * It seems that if this develops, it might be 5-6 days from now. Hopefully it isn't anything like Joaquin at all. However, I don't think this has potential to become a C4. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:03, October 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO, but the wave is still active and nearing the Windwards.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:28, October 8, 2015 (UTC)

The wave is now currently located in the eastern Caribbean, on 65W. It may be off the TWO, but I wouldn't lose all hope for this wave yet. It could become something later on, maybe in the EPac. These waves are the only thing keeping me occupied with Atlantic tropical weather, as Joaquin has dissipated and there aren't any other AOIs around.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:30, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think it just ate the wave behind it. This wave here is further into the Caribbean, and now extending from 19N69W to 12N69W. I see plenty of moisture in the area, and it could finally become something once it enters the EPac. That's just my prediction, since I really don't think it'll develop in this basin anymore.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:55, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * It would be awesome if we could get an EPAC category 5 from this wave eventually. Of course, that's just dreaming. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:32, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it would be absolutely epic to witness a Category 5 from the wave sometime in the future. I really hope it becomes at least something in the EPac!  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:42, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now it extends from 11N73W to 19N71W and is in the Central Caribbean.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:29, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * It is beginning to enter the western Caribbean now, and the axis is extending into Jamaica. In the long term, the wave could develop into something in the EPac.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:26, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * If the storm forms in the EPAC basin, and the storm is so amazing or destructive it gets it's own archive, will these Atlantic tropical wave discussions be included in the archive? I think it would be neat to have the entire lifetime of the storm included, including it's journey as a tropical wave (if it forms from one. See Joaquin) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:34, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, we're going to make the tropical wave discussions part of the archive. That way, we would be able to see the storm's whole life journey, which I also agree would be pretty neat. When the storm crosses into the EPac, I'll start up a new discussion on that page and provide a link to that new discussion here. This tropical wave is now extending from 10N80W to 19N78W, moving west at 10 kt, and the long term could be interesting for this wave. I do hope it becomes something big. :D  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:37, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Sorry for not updating these waves lately, but this one is now in the EPac. Discussion continues here.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:05, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 3 - October 9)
A brand new tropical wave is behind the 0/20 one, extending from 07N23W to 17N26W. This one seems to have some scattered convection. It is expected to merge with the other tropical wave by tomorrow night, and this may fuel the other wave.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 20:08, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'll call this Tropical Invest 16S(S stands for Sandy). Weegee is awesome 20:28, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Really? Sandy is 3 years ago... and this wave will never be as destructive and it's not even related to Sandy at all. Anyway, the wave lacks convection and is located at a somewhat extreme southern latitude, extending from 03N37W to 09N42W. I believe it could interact with South America at this rate. And it looks like the "merger" originally expected to happen with this wave back when I posted my first post never happened.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:27, October 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Extends from 10N50W to 03N50W now, and could crash into South America.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:27, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm right. It is, indeed, about to crash into South America. Anyway, it is located very close to the Windwards, and is starting to affect the residents there.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:30, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * The wave right ahead of it just consumed this wave I think. It's gone from the TWD now. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:56, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Steve, it is for HSMC. Spcardozo2 (talk) 21:34, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: GFS Caribbean system
GFS is apparently picking up on a tropical storm forming over the western Caribbean by the middle to the end of the month, so there is still time. However, I would like to leave this here. Owen 01:46, October 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * That looks bad. I half want it to exist and half don't because it would cause damage. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:23, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks really epic. :O It's possible one of these tropical waves might cause a monstrous hurricane according to this... let's hope it won't occur or else we got another future retirement candidate! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:27, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * We never know considering the Caribbean has been unfavorable all season long and it is a hotbed during October and November for hurricanes and even major hurricanes to form. Even Wilma, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic, formed in the Caribbean during October. Will potential Kate do the same thing? Not very likely, but if conditions become favorable enough in the Caribbean, we could definitely see a Cat 5. Again, not likely, but has potential. If it does develop, it will likely be along the lines of a moderate-strong tropical storm. Owen 16:41, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 7 - October 10)
Another new wave near Cape Verde. It's possible this could turn into the system mentioned above... :O <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:27, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Left the Cape Verdes, is now extending from 12N31W to 05N33W. We'll see what this one does. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:30, October 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * In the Central Atlantic now, and extending from 16N46W to 10N46W. African dust surrounds it, so it could struggle along the way. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 02:00, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's gone from the TWD. I guess African dust consumed it. It is possible that now, the above GFS system might come from the below tropical wave instead. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:31, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 9 - October 19)
Yet another new wave, located near the Cape Verdes, and extending from 20N26W to 10N28W. There is a lot of convection in the area associated with the wave, currently. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 02:00, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now extending from 12N32W to 20N27W, and it is beginning to leave the Cape Verdes. Convection still looks pretty good in the area I'd say. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:32, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * There's dry air ahead of it, so I won't be surprised if it dissipated like the above tropical wave. Current axis is 19N27W to 11N35W and it is tilted. We'll see what this does as time goes on. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:23, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Currently extends from 10N40W to 18N34W in the central Atlantic, and still looks a little elongated/titled. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:39, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's all the way in the central Caribbean. It moved a lot since the last post because I haven't posted here in a few days. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:09, October 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * About to crash into Central America currently. Maybe it'll do something in the EPac, but that's just wishing. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:48, October 16, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Over Belize
I think this is the same thing as the wave you're talking about, there's this new 10/20 AOI in the Atlantic which has a slight shot at developing when it's no longer inland and it moves over the Bay of Campeche. If it does form though, it would likely be a TD, or a weak TS at best. Also, the way it's moving would cause it to dissipate over Mexico instead of entering the EPAC, it looks like. ~Raindrop57 (talk)


 * Yeah, it is the same thing. It doesn't look like it has much of a chance to develop, but it could become something if it rapidly organizes in the BOC. There's also a possibility for the wave to survive into the EPac I'd say, but it also looks likely that it'll dissipate over Mexico. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 17:52, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * 0/10. Possible bust? Its once associated tropical wave is off the Tropical Weather Discussion, BTW. I'd be shocked if this became Kate. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:49, October 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wait, it's still there yet it's tropical wave is gone? It seems the invest has backed east, maybe it was seperating from the wave which instead moved west and dissipated. And BTW, I wouldn't call 20% a "bust", it needs to be at least medium chance. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:19, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it might have backed east or something. And I like calling every AOI that fails to develop a "bust", but the ones you describe (medium or higher chance at peak) would be a "big bust" to me. This AOI is now off the TWO, so it just busted. Are we ever going to get Kate this season? <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:13, October 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * I guess it's in some degree a bust. And no, it's not looking good on seeing a TS Kate this year, since that 80% invest way back was a bust. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:32, October 23, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (Early-Mid October - October 19)
I didn't put the starting date since it is in the central Atlantic now and it's been a while since my last posts. So I don't know when it really emerged off Africa, I believe it might have been around October 12. I'm pretty sure this is a new wave. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:09, October 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Still in the central Atlantic. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:48, October 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's beginning to near the Windwards, and is extending from 16N51W to 08N48W. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 17:55, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * This one has officially dropped off the TWD. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:49, October 20, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 15 - October 19)
Another new one over the Cape Verdes. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:48, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * It has pushed over to the central Atlantic. Extending from 14N38W to 07N37W, I'll watch for the future of this wave. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 17:54, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's a failed show. The tropical wave barely even survived 4 days. Off the TWD, along with every other tropical wave previously on when I last updated these forums. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:49, October 20, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: GFS Subtropical/Tropical storm
GFS showing a possible subtropical or tropical storm by the end of the month. --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  is Joaquin still there?  •  spam goes here ^_^  15:49, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * I don't anticipate it to be much, since GFS models could be unpredictable. We could see a subtropical Kate by the time we're celebrating Halloween if it does form into something. Although it'll probably be a failure weakling, unless Bermuda receives some impacts from it. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:31, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, remember when it was forecasting that storm in the Carribean? There wasn't even an AOI there at any point. I really don't expect this to pan out. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:03, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 26 - present)
A new tropical wave has appeared near the Cape Verdes, and extends from 10N25W to 04N27W. Due to the time of year, I doubt this wave will be anything worth watching; anything can happen to waves so that is why I continue to post about them, in case they form in the western Caribbean or elsewhere. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:02, October 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * Only moved slightly westward since my last post (15N30W to 07N32W). Again, I'd be pretty shocked if this wave get its act together and becomes something this late in the year. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:00, October 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm really hoping for at least one more EPAC tropical cyclone this year, it would be really cool if this wave eventually becomes one. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:41, October 29, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: West of Africa
This wave has popped up on the TWO, but at 0/0 and continued unfavorable conditions it won't be doing anything. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:24, October 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, since upper-level winds will just ruin its chance for developing as of now. Any chances of development for this wave should be later on, probably when it gets into the Caribbean, and if it still doesn't become much there, the Pacific is a best bet. I'm a bit surprised the NHC popped this on the TWO when it currently doesn't even have a chance. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  🎃 ( Happy   Halloween   guys!  )👻 04:14, October 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * It actually managed to gain enough orgainazation to be upped to 10%. Still shouldn't develop, but it's doing pretty well considering that conditions aren't conductive for development at all. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:19, October 30, 2015 (UTC)

It's off the TWO, but the tropical wave is still active, and is in the central Atlantic currently. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  🎃 ( Happy   Halloween   guys!  )👻 17:57, October 31, 2015 (UTC)


 * This wave has moved close to the Windwards and is now currently extending from 20N60W to 12N60W. It is so late in the year, so I am still doubting any TC will come from this. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 22:15, November 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Entering the Central Caribbean: 11N70W to 21N69W. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 00:25, November 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Currently in the western Caribbean: 23N80W to 09N80W. Its axis extends all the way from Cuba to Panama. The wave could become something in the EPac, but there are upper-level winds which could prevent it from developing, like the other recent AOIs we saw over in that basin. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 22:56, November 4, 2015 (UTC)

AOI.Western Caribbean
Up on the TWO at 10/10. Might become something in the BoC before conditions become unfavorable by the weekend. Ryan1000 15:20, November 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * So the wave's now back on the TWO. It has only a 10% chance of development though before it merges with a cold front. I hope it doesn't develop, because it would only be a big name waster. However, the other, 0/20 AOI on the five day outlook might become another storm despite the time of year. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:22, November 5, 2015 (UTC)


 * Up to 20/20. Maybe it has a slight chance after all. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:17, November 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * Great to see it back on the TWO today. I honestly don't care if it wastes a name; I'd be happy if it became a named November storm no matter what. But even if it does "steal" a name, it'll still cause some impacts in Mexico, so it wouldn't be a complete fail. The tropical wave itself is extending from the western Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico, BTW. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 01:37, November 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * ...and it's off the TWO. And it is no longer mentioned as a tropical wave on the TWD, either, but it seems like part of the tropical wave might have moved into the EPac (see this nearby wave). I'm not sure about that though. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 16:59, November 8, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave 1 (November 5 - present)
I just saw that the wave is actually completely separate from the above AOI. Axis extends from Cuba to near Panama currently, and is south of the above AOI. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 17:02, November 8, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave 2 (November 5 - present)
This one is hanging around the eastern/central Atlantic, not likely to do much I'd say. Current axis is 17N34W to 06N35W, and it is west of the Cape Verdes. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 01:37, November 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's nearing the Windwards currently. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 17:03, November 8, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Patricia
Somehow, some of Patricia's remnants moved into the Gulf of Mexico.