Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: Southwest of Cape Verde
Another ITCZ system, only GFS and UKMET actually develop something significant within 5 days. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:10, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Better add CMC and GFDL to that list! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:17, 13 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Half the modls develop what looks like a TD, with the other half a TS or stronger, with GFS the strongest. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:55, 14 August 2008 (UTC)
 * It's drifted south now, could follow and affect the other invests. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:09, 15 August 2008 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Hmm, it would seem to me that 92 and 94 are lucky numbers for hurricane invests, but 93 not so much. Expected to head north of the Bahamas, could affect the US east coast, could become a hurricane within 5 days. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:13, 18 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Might become a hurricane in about a week, but CMC predicts what looks like a cat. 3 in about 5 days, in a track that resembles the 1938 Long Island Express. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:21, 19 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Medium risk and on the danger graphic for NHC. --Patteroast 09:24, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Back down to low-risk, but now it has a better chance of entering the Caribbean. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:45, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * A couple model runs showing something interesting happening after it gets to the Caribbean... if this thing's going to do anything, it'll be then. --Patteroast 20:14, 21 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Most models don't predict much more than maybe a TD, but CMC is the outlier, predicting a cat. 3 before it even gets to the warmest water, SHIPS predicts a cat. 1, and HWRF a TS. Models in fair agreement, expected to head into the Caribbean then into the even warmer Atlantic. It might be headed for New York, but it's way too early to tell, but if this does form, then Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Bahamas, and the North American east coast from Florida to Newfoundland may need to watch this one closely. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:53, 21 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Centre re-developed to the south, so it could re-enter the Caribbean near St. Lucia. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:17, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * OMG, models in agreement on its track, expected to enter the Caribbean, possibly hit Haiti as a cat. 2 (uh-oh), and maybe enter the Gulf. GFDL predicts a cat. 3 in only 3 days in the Caribbean! Its immediate cone may be small but it will enlargen and nobody is safe. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:07, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Where on Earth are you coming up with model agreement on this? GFDL is the only model that does much with this, CMC makes something out of it in the short term but has it weakening toward Cuba, the rest of the models don't seem to be doing much of anything with this at all ... Albireo 21:20, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I got the model forecasts from here. There's more agreement on the track than the intensity, however. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:42, 23 August 2008 (UTC)

Back to medium risk and on the danger graphic from NHC. --Patteroast 09:51, 24 August 2008 (UTC) Although most models don't predict too much, GFDL develops a cat. 5 as soon as it enters the gulf and heads it straight for NOLA! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:08, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Where are you seeing Category 5 anywhere? I go to that site that you link and all I can tell is that it moves north, deepens, and steers toward Florida. Besides, anything more than three days out isn't exactly reliable. Recent satellite is showing some healthy convection by the way. Harocat 00:40, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I think I found what you're talking about, is this where you're getting the models? Harocat 00:46, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Jamaica better be paying attention, because most of the guidance takes it their way and only HWFI doesn't give it a name. Of those, only NOGAPS does't make it a hurricane. GFDI makes it a Category 4 in 108 hrs and LGEM makes it a Cat 2 in the same amount of time. Caribbean storms traditionally make me very nervous as there are quite a few of them on the retired names list. -- SkyFury 04:22, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Doesn't help that the GDFL shows it going right between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba, giving it an unobstructed shot at the Gulf. It will get plenty of warm water along the way as well. We could be seeing a tropical depression by morning.Harocat 05:24, 25 August 2008 (UTC)

Assigned high risk by NHC. They say that it could form into a depression at any time and the hurricane hunters will be sent this afternoon.Harocat 11:38, 25 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven
It's official. NHC predicts it becoming a tropical storm by tomorrow morning and moving between Cuba and Haiti. It doesn't appear that they're expecting it to develop more anytime soon, but there's a Tropical Storm Warning out for the southern coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Harocat 15:44, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, it has a well-defined eye, and I expect a TS by 2pm. The error cone, unfortunately, puts all three American cities most vulnerable to hurricanes: New Orleans, Miami, and New York in its possible path. If it's making you very nervous, it should, because much of the US coast is in its possible striking zone. Also, we here in S. Ontario could get the remnants of this storm. Someone on WeatherUnderground noticed that this storm's path is similar to that of Dennis of 2005. Following the low-confidence NHC forecast and model guidance, I predict a cat. 1 landfall near Key West on September 1, then a cat. 3 landfall on Pascagoula, Mississippi as a cat. 3 on the 4th, then a TS landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 8th, then a cat. 2 landfall near New York City on the 10th, then a TD landfall near Kingston, Ontario on the 12th. However, this will probably be off especially towards the end. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:10, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * You're predicting a lot of landfalls there... just cos Fay made a lot, doesn't mean those following it will. Also, I'd've thought Houston's more likely to get hit by a hurricane than New York. - Salak 17:21, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Is there any rhyme or reason to your "predictions", or are you just tossing colored darts at a map? Also - "landfall near Kingston, ON"?  I assume you mean "remnants pass near Kingston, ON". Albireo 17:29, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I have to admit, I got a chuckle out of that. But yeah, he's sounding a bit too excited about his predictions. Harocat 18:46, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Just had a look at the aerial photo; that does look like an eye. I'll be very surprised if this isn't Gustav at the next advisory. - Salak 17:41, 25 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gustav
It's official! Unfortunately the official update will be delayed 30 minutes and yes there is reason to my forecast. 95 kmph winds!! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:14, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, yeah, even the NHC said it was going to turn into a tropical storm within the day. This isn't a forecasting contest. Anyway...hopefully it gets torn up over Cuba before Florida gets any more dumped on. Harocat 18:50, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Hurricane warning for southern Haiti and SW Dominican Republic. The current forecast has it only skimming the coast of Cuba... --Patteroast 19:02, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not liking this forecast track one bit. It would be too easy to get that thing into the Gulf. (EDIT TO ADD: And of course it's going to hit Haiti, which is never good news)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 19:13, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh oh. This could be REALLY bad. Believe it or not, Haiti hasn't had a direct hurricane strike since Georges of 1998, and even that was a cat. 1. Most models' tracks are way south of NHC's track, which means that NOLA could be in trouble. Both GFDL and HWRF predict landfall on South Cuba as a cat. 2. Either way, this will not be pretty. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:37, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not liking the look of this either... Haiti and Cuba only had Fay about 10 days ago, that may only increase the flooding caused by this... not looking good at the moment. - Salak 20:17, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Updated forecast shows it reaching Cat. 1 by tomorrow and the extended forecast calls for it to go directly over Cuba. However, even the forecasters are saying the day 4 and 5 outlooks are a bit unclear, though from what the models are showing it could turn left quickly and smack Jamaica. Right now the track seems to depend on the development of a ridge in the southeast US. Harocat 21:10, 25 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Sustained winds of 70mph; nearly a hurricane now. - Salak 03:27, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Gustav
According to NHC, hurricane hunters found 80 mph winds... and the last forecast track had it edging south of Cuba, taking a path with minimal time over land... this doesn't look good. --Patteroast 07:36, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * That didn't take long at all. Bad news for Haiti. Jake52 :07:36, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow... not liking model runs, either. Latest GFDL had a category 5 landfall on the W tip of Cuba before heading into the Gulf with 158 knot winds, and the latest HWRF has a strong cat 4 heading into the Gulf after skimming past Cuba. --Patteroast 07:42, 26 August 2008 (UTC)

From discussion: "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE.  MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN A FEW DAYS." - not good. Isfisk 09:05, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * If Gustav enters the Gulf it could steel the thunder next week from McCain. Isfisk 11:42, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Or it might actually give the candidates something to do besides bash each other. The aftermath of Gustav has the potential to be a PR goldmine. Hopefully they focus on helping with cleanup rather than making themselves look good, but who am I kidding. Harocat 13:30, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Anyone see the latest GFDL run? It's downright chilling. Albireo 13:52, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * The one that has this touching Category 5 in the gulf before a direct hit as a Category 4 on New Orleans? Eek... - Salak 16:13, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Yup, looks like it's going to explode fairly soon, and a major hurricane by Friday. Harocat 15:13, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * There's still uncertainty, but either way this will not be good for oil prices. I predict a cat. 4 landfall in central Louisiana. This might be innacurate but it might also might be an underestimte, but look at this map of an approximation of the storm surge associated with such a storm O_O. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:43, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * The latest GFDL run is just creepy: 170 mph+ winds, direct cat. 4 landfall on Houston with TS winds on NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:46, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Either way, this thing may well be pretty bad. We're looking almost a week ahead here, I think it's safe to say the Gulf Coast needs to keep an eye on this, and then a case of wait and see, at least until it gets half way along Cuba so we have a slightly better picture? - Salak 01:31, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't like this at all. I'm not easily intimidated by young storms but if this storm doesn't establish a long standing relationship with Cuba, things could get very ugly by Labor Day weekend. I've analyzed every season back to 1871 at some point in the last four years and I'll tell you a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico almost never has a happy ending. The upper level environment is not exactly providing me much comfort either. Six of the 11 models on Colorado State's map make it a major hurricane. GFDI and GFNI make it 150 mph Category 4 by 84 hrs (bad) and 108 hrs (worse), respectively. Bottom line: there's a relatively strong possibility that this could suck. -- SkyFury 06:17, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * GFDL now hints on a direct hit for the Mississippi delta. --213.155.231.26 09:56, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gustav (Second time)
Haiti cut Gustav up a bit it seems. Forecast to restrengthen in 24 hours though. - Salak 13:53, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I'll take any good news at this point. Anyone notice the track keeps shifting east, more toward...(*gulp*) me? Chance for shear late in the forecast period but there's no way to know how the storm will be affected by it. The lack of knowledge is just killing me right now. -- SkyFury 16:29, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * This storm could indeed make history (or erase it). NHC predicts a direct cat. 3 landfall near New Orleans, which could be a re-Katrina. I'd think about packing up and leaving if I lived around the area. Land interaction with Havanna could weaken it a bit, and it's not expected to flood MR-GO as much. GFDL and HWRF both predict a cat. 5, CMC still insisting on the south Texas track. GFDL predicts a cat. 4 landfall on central Louisiana (bad), and HWRF predicts a cat. 3 landfall on central Mississippi (just as bad). Only three people have been reported dead in Haiti, which could be good news because it could have been worse. I'd predicted retirement for Gustav back in July, but not in the exact way I'd expected. If you live anywhere near the Lake Pontchartrain area, you should: stock up on emergency supplies. Pray. Get ready-to-eat food (not Maple Leaf meat) and bottled water. Pray. Fill up on fuel ASAP. Pray. Be ready to evacuate if nessecary. Pray. Monitor the NHC forecasts. Pray. Leave early before a mandatory evacuation is declared if the storm stays on its predicted track. Pray. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:59, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Normally I might dismiss the above as being melodramatic hand-wringing, but the models simply do not look good. With two of them - and the NHC forecast - pointing at a major hurricane landfall on the gulf coast, I'd say it is not unwarranted for everyone from Houston to Pensacola to be keeping a very close watch on Gustav and be prepared to get outta Dodge. Albireo 17:18, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * There's no reason to panic. Yet. If the track still looks the same on Friday morning, *then* you can panic (and if at all possible, find some place to evacuate to). But that's friday morning.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:05, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Oh, no, no reason to panic - but every reason for residents on the Gulf Coast to pay attention and not wait till the last moment, in case this does get ugly. Albireo 18:49, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * GFDL still predicting cat. 5, but it's the only one now. The best-case senario I think is if it heads over Cuba and Florida and never strengthens to a hurricane but then it would still dump a lot of flood. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:16, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Coincidentally, Friday is the 3rd anniversary of Katrina and by then it'll be apparent what this storm will do. Half of all models predict major hurricane near NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:21, 27 August 2008 (UTC)


 * It's not gonna be a Cat. 5 but the way this is going, it could be a longer weekend than I thought. I have to go home tomorrow anyway for a doctor's appointment and as Gus is likely to make landfall on the Gulf Coast sometime Tuesday (at whatever Category it ends up being), I may be staying longer. This is the worst part of an impending storm for a hurricane forecaster because at this point, there's no tellin' what it'll do. But it's comin' and is certainly gonna run into something. Where and as what we don't know. -- SkyFury 23:30, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

About to pass Jamaica to the SOUTH, intensity forecasts have just been raised back to 115mph in the Gulf, currently 70mph sustained winds. Back to a Hurricane today. - Salak 13:10, 28 August 2008 (UTC)


 * NHC forecasts have switched back to landfall on Central Louisiana, but CMC predicts a landfall on Florida (and stalls it there :S), while GFDL predeicts a cat. 3 landfall near Mobile. Interactiion with Hannah is about to really complicate things as it could make this storm stay in the Gulf longer. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:08, 28 August 2008 (UTC)


 * "IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5 HURRICANE BY 72 HR." That sucks. No, bad Gustav, behave. I'm home for the Labor Day weekend which could be longer if the track shifts back east. Before I left Mobile, I found a notice taped to my door by Housing advising me to secure my belongings and on how to get emergency info. That brought it home. -- SkyFury 04:57, 29 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I doubt Hanna will have much of an affect on Gustav. They're very far apart. However, Gustav could have an affect on Hanna as it is currently and will remain in the short-term the superior system. Also, Gustav just rapidly expanded in size. Hopefully once it gets over the Gulf Stream and intensifies and starts undergoing those ERCs it won't grow to be too large...Bob rulz 12:53, 29 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Update: 78 deaths being blamed on Gustav; 8 in the Dominican Republic, 59 in Haiti (7 still missing), and up to 11 in Jamaica. That's more than Dean from last year. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:58, 29 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Fasten your seatbelts, Gus looks primed to strengthen significantly. Cloud tops have cooled, pressure and wind shear are low, water is warm and I see what appears to be a banding eye beginning to form. We're about to find out how much Gustav really likes the infamous northwestern Caribbean. -- SkyFury 17:55, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Gustav (again)
15:15 EDT: NHC declares Gustav a hurricane again. --213.155.231.26 19:27, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks amazing... I feel it could become a cat5 even before it exits the Caribbean. :/ I mean if it can survive all that land THIS well. -Winter123 20:44, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that, but a major hurricane isn't out of the question, by any means. Whether it strengthens further to a Cat 4 or 5 in the Gulf; well that's another matter. - Salak 20:52, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * If you extend the 5-day of the storm's center track from the previous advisories, then it hasn't the Louisiana-Mississippi area since its formation. If it goes far enough west, however, then it might intensify rapidly, expand, then move north and break through part of the ridge due to the Gulf loop. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:25, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to become a Cat. 4 but at this point, the best we can say is "strong". There are a lot of variables going into this intensity forecast but what I found rather chilling was the assertiveness with which Jack Beven (who has a PhD and is as knowledgable as anyone on tropical cyclones) said, "Gustav is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane." I have never heard NHC make such an absolute statement like that at this point in the storm's life. Not with Ivan, not with Katrina, not with Rita. That scares me. -- SkyFury 04:27, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Gustav
Houston, we have a problem. Jake52 10:57, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Um... Yikes? Certainly not what the Gulf coast want to hear, I expect. - Salak 14:26, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh-oh. Brace yourselves, here it comes. The models are extremely agreed upon on making a landfall on Vermillion Bay, Louisiana. Both GFDL and HWRF have been fed data on the Gulf loop current, and GFDL takes it to a cat. 5. HWRF only takes it to a cat. 4, but that's because it starts it off as a cat. 2. A really scary thing is, both HWRF and UKMET take it SOUTH after it hits Louisiana and Texas, which is really scary because then it could interact with Hanna and either system can hit absolutely ANYWHERE. So, I'm saying that Gustav could easily hit both New Orleans AND Houston with full force. Remember, the models do VERY poorly with high pressure stalling scenarios and hurricane-hurricane interactions. Oh great, every time we have perfectly clear weather in Southern Ontario, which has been rare all summer, we get blamed on massive hurricane destruction in the US. GFDL predicts a cat. 3 landfall on Louisiana having just weakened from a cat. 5, while HWRF only predicts a cat. 1 landfall, but like I said it curves it back into the Gulf. I have a feeling the tropics are about to get VERY dangerous and complicated in the next few days. Not to mention I have a friend who visited Varadero just two weeks ago, and now that area has experienced Fay, is under a hurricane warning because of Gustav, and might be hit by Hanna also. This storm is rather large: rainbands exdend 700 km and are affecting south Florida (oh great, MORE rain for south Florida?!). When it hits Louisiana, rainbands could easily extend from west of Houston to much of the Florida Panhandle. Be careful wherever you are, this could get serious. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:39, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Goddamnit Gus, what'd you have to go and do that for? This looks as bad as we thought it was going to be if not worse. I think it's landfall intensity will be determined by how strong it gets and the timing of eyewall replacement cycles. Katrina moved inland in the middle of an eyewall cycle, which was 100% dumb luck, and it was still one of the worst hurricane disasters in US history. The levees of New Orleans are still under reconstruction and are in worse a state now than they were in 2005. If this thing makes landfall as a major hurricane anywhere between Lake Charles and Bay St. Louis, New Orleans is in serious trouble. At least Gus won't likely leave much warm water for Hanna when she gets here. -- SkyFury 17:26, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * "DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES.  THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME." - 1:20pm EDT Update. Maybe I was wrong, this could get to Cat 5 before it hits Cuba... Eeeek!!! - Salak 17:28, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

It's gets even worse. MUCH worse. Gustav is now a dangerous cat. 4, with winds of 230 km/h. I reckon it will be a cat. 5 shortly after it crosses Cuba, because the hurricane is shifting east of its predicted track and is moving NNW. A special full advisory will be issued at 2pm. This is bad, because it will be stronger when it makes landfall, hit closer to New Orleans, and hit it sooner! I think it will make landfall sometime around 2pm Monday, which is only 48 hours from now. Emergency planners are expecting a landfall Tuesday morning. Uh-oh. Technicly at this rate the southeast tip of the Mississippi should already be on a hurricane watch. Even worse, I think its current track would take its worst storm surge into the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet canal, which would flood much of St. Bernard Parish into NOLA because it would funnel all that water into possibly to as much as 25 feet. Just a year ago, we would have all panicked if a single model run took a major hurricane toward NOLA, and just a month ago none of you believed me that many more re-Katrinas were coming. Now we can only hope for the best. However, there is good news. New Orleans is at half its population, so a full evacuation would take about 60 hours. Since voluntary evacuations have begun, it would take less than 48 hours to evacuate the city. However, they need to start mandatory evacuations NOW, because Gustav is set to make landfall in 48 hours! Let's wait for that special advisory. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:42, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * For once, I agree. There is nothing standing in Gustav's way right now. It hasn't even hit the Loop Current yet. -- SkyFury 17:51, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Many more, no... but it only takes one. - Salak 17:56, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * * gulp* 2pm advisory ups the wind figures to 145mph, says a Cat 5 is possible just before or after Cuban landfall... Goes from bad to worse. - Salak 18:14, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Expected to make a weak cat. 4 landfall near Grand Isle, LA (not MR-GO, sorry I mixed that up). here is what a 16-ft storm surge might do to the area (it's actually mesant for sea level rise, so it might not be accurate for storm surge). At one point, Gustav will likely be exactly where Katrina was more than 3 years ago, about 50 km south of the Mississippi delta, and of similar size and strength, and this will likely be the worst storm to hit NOLA since Katrina, because remember even Rita was strong enough to break the levees. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:47, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * It all depends on eyewall cycles and how much shear increases throughout the forecast period. That forecast advisory sent a chill up my spine. NHC seems to be really considering the possibility that Gustav could make landfall as a Category 4. Like I said before, New Orleans is very vulnerable right now. It won't take much to cause devastating consequences for the city. I hope people in the path of this thing realize how serious this is. -- SkyFury 18:52, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Apparently NOLA isn't the only one in danger because Cuba has apparently never before recorded a cat. 5 landfall! Dennis was the last storm to make cat. 4 landfall and it killed 16 people. The Batabano Gulf isn't very warm but it still has time to strengthen especially considering Cuba at that point is only 60 km wide but luckily there aren't too many towns on the south coast of Cuba in that area. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:08, 30 August 2008 (UTC)

Highly unconfirmed, but some media sources indicate NHC has informed FEMA and others Gustav would be up to 5 with the next advisory. We'll see. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:30, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Look at the IR. Havana's getting ravaged. God help those people. -- SkyFury 21:35, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Canadian media put this as a cat. 5, but NHC still has it as a strong cat. 4. Now espected to make landfall in Louisiana south of Houma as a medium-strength cat. 4. The good news is that Cuba has a good civil defense system. A hurricane watch extends from Houston to Florida. Just 5mph from cat. 5 and it has yet to clear the water before it makes landfall on the mainland. Also this storm surge looks bad. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:50, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * The latest advisory said Cuba could be getting a storm surge of around 20 feet. I don't care how good your civil defense system is, a surge that huge can devestate entire cities. Gustav is reminding me of Felix almost a year ago and you saw how well that turned out. That eye and eyewall are very well defined. -- SkyFury 22:43, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * This is a rough idea of such a surge, but remember hundreds of thousands have been evacuated, and it already made landfall. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:27, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Gustav looks significantly weaker now. The once-impressive eye has entirely disappeared on the VIS and IR imagery. It would not surprise me in the least if it's down to Cat. 3 the 11pm advisory. -- SkyFury 02:09, 31 August 2008 (UTC)

Meh, not so much in actuality. The storm was going to lose its eye in all probability - it looks bad, but it's not bad. The eye is becoming much more well defined as we speak. Squarethecircle 02:58, 31 August 2008 (UTC) (guess who)
 * Down to a cat. 3. Mandatory evacuation in effect for New Orleans. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:49, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Landfall forecast at Grand Isle tomorrow afternoon with winds somewhere between 105 and 115 knots (120-130 mph). That is too close to New Orleans for my taste. I'm glad mayor Nagin finally used sterner language this time: If you don't leave, don't expect any help from us. He closed the Superdome and the Convention Center and commissioned everything with wheels to get people out of that goddamn city. We should consider ourselves very lucky this storm did not enjoy its Cuban vacation one bit. Oh, and my school is under a hurricane warning but we're still having class Tuesday, isn't that wonderful. -- SkyFury 18:08, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Here comes the re-intensification right now... Squarethecircle 23:28, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it looks like it's getting better organized but the winds aren't exactly Johnny on the Spot, especially with a storm this big. -- SkyFury 00:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Is that a pinhole eye? -- SkyFury 00:29, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Very grainy, looks like a cloud top next to a small eye indentation. Best track, BTW, is 105. Recon obs say around 950 right now. And dropping. Squarethecircle 00:41, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm really surprised it wasn't bumped up at the 11pm advisory. NHC seems to think the information is conflicting; they're getting both evidence of strengthening and evidence of declining organization. I'll be a little surprised if it doesn't strengthen a bit before landfall but not shocked. Ivan, Katrina and Rita were all forecast to be stronger at landfall than they were. Then again, Charley and Wilma were forecast to be weaker at landfall. So a lot of strange things can happen with landfalling systems. Every storm reacts to its environment differently. All forecasters try to do is analyze that environment and try to determine the most likely scenario. -- SkyFury 03:55, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It stayed a cat. 3 throught the Gulf, which is good news. It's about to come ashore, visible on NOLA radar, and surge in places has reached 10 feet. The radar makes it look like a rather small storm, and the NOLA bridgecam makes it look stormy but not too bad. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:28, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Gustav (third time); Post-landfall
Made landfall as a cat. 2, could bring heavy rain in the next few days. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * There NHC goes again. Gustav was for all intents and purposes a major hurricane at landfall. NHC wants to wait until every last inch of the eye is onshore and it really irritates me, I don't understand why they nitpick like that. They did the same thing with Katrina. That said, Gustav doesn't look like it's going to be as bad as we originally thought it might be. -- SkyFury 17:27, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Gustav
It's over land, but it still has an extremely impressive structure, and heavy rains are falling and 8 people were killed from Gustav in the United States directly I think. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:10, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * And now it's over. TD Gustav has become a remnant low, still in the same general area, and we're finally back down to three named systems, which is plenty enough.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:31, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The remnant low is still expected to bring us a lot of rain tomorrow. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:52, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The remnants have brought us some light rain, sustained winds up to 30 kph (20 mph), and occasional gusts up to 60 kph (35 mph). 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:14, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SW of Cape Verde
This one's near the caost, expected to follow the other two systems. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:01, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

95L. INVEST
Part of this developed from the northwestern flank of the Cape Verde system. SHIPS predicts a hurricane but there's some model dissagreement. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:26, 22 August 2008 (UTC)
 * HWRF is actually predicting a cat. 2! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:49, 23 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Dropped to low-risk, but HWRF persists on bringing it to a hurricane and hitting Nova Scotia as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:55, 24 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Back up to medium risk... --Patteroast 01:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh-oh. CMC predicts a cat. 3, GFDL a cat. 4, and HWRF a cat. 3 within 5 days! GFS is also scary, not intensity-wise but track-wise: stalling around the high coming off the coast and maybe hitting New York. If we have a cat. 2 or 3 hurricane AND a landfall near New York then there could be trouble. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:48, 26 August 2008 (UTC)
 * And most of the models predict it to recurve through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The only models that take it west are the ones that keep it weak. It might be a good idea for Bermuda to pay attention to it, but we shouldn't have to worry about it here in the states. -- SkyFury 16:34, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got it up to high risk, it's on the danger graphic, AND there's a TCFA. Could be a depression before morning. --Patteroast 00:54, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Showing up as 08L on NRL. No word yet from NHC, but judging by what they were saying about it earlier, I'd be very surprised if this is not indeed upgraded. --Patteroast 08:30, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Confirmed by NHC. Forecast to become a hurricane heading towards the east coast... --Patteroast 08:52, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Still way too far to say it won't recurve, though. No?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 12:21, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Perhaps true. Navy/NRL has this labelled as 08L.HANNA; expect an upgrade in the next advisory. - Salak 13:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm really not kidding this time, models predict a full-scale multi-system Fujiw***, which is the last thing we need with TWO potentially threatening systems on the loose. Hanna and the other systems could actually split the Bermuda high in half, which would be troublesome because the hurricanes would be dominating the Atlantic basin instead of a high. Several models predict a turn towards the ultra-warm south, which is reflected in the near-stalling of this system on the NHC forecast by day 5. This could indeed reach New York because the Bermuda high will be partly missing! I'll wait until the 11am advisory. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:14, 28 August 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hanna
Already. At 11AM, advisory 2. Storm&#39;s Eye 14:48, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Some models predict weakening as it stalls, but CMC strengthens it to a cat. 4 then pushes it toward Haiti O_O. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:27, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * "ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE." And it's headed toward Florida. Great, that's wonderful. The news just keeps getting better and better doesn't it? Plus there's a strong tropical wave about to come off Africa and now a disturbed area in the Bay of Campeche. Just like Christmas, isn't it? -- SkyFury 05:09, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I must say, every model run depicts something rather alarming. No, make that VERY alarming. CMC explodes it enough to wreak havoc wherever it hits, GFDL runs a cat. 4 toward Haiti, possibly TWICE, GFS makes it enter the Gulf and possibly hit the Atlantic seaboard after that, HWRF stalls it enough for the high to take it toward New York, mm5fsu-merge predicts explosion and stalling to rapid intensification, ngp explodes it (a true rarity for ngp), and ukmet runs a strong hurricane into the Gulf. Even NHC's track allows for rapid intensification and it could hit ANYWHERE. Not to mention all three American cities most volnerable to hurricanes. Uh-oh. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:34, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Beyong day 5, based on the current NHC forecast, I predict a TS landfall on Aklins Island on the 3rd, then a cat. 1 landfall on Great Inagua on the 4th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Port-de-Paix, Haiti on the 5th, then a cat. 2 landfall on Middle Caicos, Turks and Caicos on the 6th, then a cat. 3 landfall on Eleuthera Island, Bahamas on the 8th, then a cat. 4 landfall on Freeport City, Bahamas on the 9th, then a cat. 4 landfall near Sebastian, Florida on the 10th, then a cat. 3 landfall near Bayonne, New Jersey on the 14th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Bayonne, New Jersey on the 14th, then a TD landfall near Prince EdwardPoint, Ontario on the 15th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 15:34, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * 10 landfalls Astro? Are you sure that's realistic? - Salak 20:56, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not really. Either he's throwing darts, or gunning for the "Most Hyperbolic Forecasts of the Season" award. Albireo 21:22, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh-oh, the current track looks like it might enter the Gulf :S. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:29, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * What weird kind of projected path Hanna this follow, with some models crossing Cuba to the Carribbean Sea? --213.155.231.26 21:50, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

And then it gets there and finds all the warm water's been pillaged. -- SkyFury 04:37, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Either way, this could still be bad. NHC takes it into the Gulf, where it could interact with Gustav and cause HUGE complications. The entire US gulf and east coast is not safe, because models do very poorly on hurricane-hurricane interactions and stalling from high pressure. The scary thing is, GFS takes what looks like a cat. 4 onto St. Simmons Island, and NOGAPS takes the same cat. 4 and dumps it onto Miami. Remember the water in the Atlantic's pretty warm too, and even with Gustav the water could still be warm enough to support Hanna somewhat. By the way Sky, Dorian is a unisex name. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:45, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * One cataclysmic hurricane at a time, please. -- SkyFury 21:38, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Anyone who thinks they know exactly where Hanna is going right now is probably going to end up being wrong. Squarethecircle 03:00, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Couldn't put it better myself. The models are pointing in pretty much every direction possible. - Salak 03:42, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Some are suggesting a pass near NYC, especially GFS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:51, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Well, at this point, I think Hanna could go almost anywhere between Heaven and Hell. I can't say I much care for where the forecast has it pointed right now though. -- SkyFury 18:42, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to go to Savannah. Expect that to change seventy times between now and it finally hitting land...if it doesn't just spin around on itself and head back out to sea. Silly Hanna.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:48, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Could bring heavy rain to southern Ontario Saturday evening. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:14, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, that forecast races it up the coast. The winds also jumped rather startlingly and I don't much like the idea of a hurricane hitting Savannah. Beautiful city, I've been there. The last time a hurricane directly made landfall in Georgia was David in 1979, crossing near uninhabited Ossabow Island just south of Savannah with 90 mph sustained winds. This has been a very active Cape Verde season. We've had Fay, Gus, Hanna, an impending Ike and now yet another Cape Verde disturbance. Wow. -- SkyFury 16:33, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Hanna
NHC have issued a special advisory. This season is heating up. Isfisk 18:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hmm, I really don't see why NHC is keeping it a cat. 1 all the way to the US. The water in between is plenty warm, and SHIPS and HWRF both predict a cat. 2, while GFDL predicts a cat. 4. Expected to make landfall in South Carolina but could have consequences for the entire Georgia coast. GFDL makes a cat. 3 landfall, while HWRF makes a landfall at cat. 2 near St. Simmons. The good news is, the water north of Cape Hatteras has cooled since August. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:58, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I must have angered the gods; they're sending all the hurricanes after me. I'm still in Atlanta by the way, tornadoes have popping up like daisies all over Mobile County and God knows I'm not driving in the dark when there's tornadoes around. -- SkyFury 21:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hanna (second time)
Back down to a TS, expected to skirt the east coast overland, but GFDL sends a strong TS-remnant right into S. Ontario! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:11, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Hanna got sheared to hell but NHC is still convinced that the conditions will get better. This one definately still bears watch. Hanna's kind of reminding me of Hurricane Gracie in 1959. Though I very much doubt Hanna will get anywhere near that strong, the track is very similar and Gracie was followed that year by Hurricane Hannah, which moved westward under a weaker subtropical ridge and then recurved as a major hurricane in the west Atlantic, eventually hitting the Azores as a Cat. 2. -- SkyFury 16:33, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC can't make up its mind about what Hanna will do. I particularly liked the one yesterday evening that had Tropical Storm Hanna reemerging in the Gulf of Saint-Lawrence and making TS-strength landfall on, of all places, the Quebec north coast (you know, where 65F is warm summer weather).--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:04, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hell, Hanna can't make up it's mind what it'll do. Hanna is a little stronger and actually moving(!!!), north as the case may be and NHC remains convinced that it will strike land as a hurricane. The track's shifted way north, too, to the Outer Banks (which may be the reason for the persistant intensity forecast) -- SkyFury 02:21, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now the models are in almost perfect agreement on the track, and NHC is no longer expecting a hurricane, but hurricane watches are still out. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:54, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * TS watches are out for NYC, expected to hit the British Isles at TS strength. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:16, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Hanna gets the first autumn European windstorm, it seems. --213.155.231.26 21:08, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

Looking at the latest forecast map...How many TS-strength landfall is that supposed to be, again? (I'm counting three-four in the US, and three in Canada...)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:39, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: SE of Cape Verde
Most models predict something out of this, could become a hurricane. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:02, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Already on NHC TWO as medium-risk. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ah, don't you love this time of year? -- SkyFury 05:14, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I think this one has a pretty decent chance. That Bermuda High is so strong I'd be worried about this one making it all the way across even if it forms way out here, but a lot can change in the 2 weeks it would take to make it across. Bob rulz 12:49, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

97L. INVEST
Already! It hasn't even made it west of Cape Verde yet, not to mention models actually like this one, and not to mention there are two other well-developed waves chasing this one. The Bermuda high won't be well-developed for long, because Hanna's about to punch a big hole in it, along with the AoI near Nova Scotia and the AoI west of CV will weaken it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:40, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks amazing. TS by this time tomorrow -Winter123 20:45, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Models make it look a lot like Bertha; taking it out into the mid-Atlantic, gradually strengthening. Highest intensity I can see is LGEM and GFDI's 76 knots. Only NOGAPS fails to develop the system as conditions across the basin seem generally favorable (welcome to Cape Verde season everybody). -- SkyFury 04:54, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks well-developed, at high-risk on NHC TWO. Could affect Bermuda and/or Nova Scotia, except this time the water's a lot warmer. Maybe my prediction of 9 TS's by end of August (and thus my prediction of 20 TS's this year) could be right after all, or maybe not, who knows. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:50, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Should I reiterate my favorite adage? BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER! -- SkyFury 22:24, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that one this time 'round. Looks like it's going fishing at the moment, and it's got plenty of room to do so. Squarethecircle 03:05, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * At the moment. Right now, it looks like Gustav is going to be the storm of the season, but we thought the same thing about Dean last year. And the curse of the first storm of September has happened too many times in the past (including last year) for me to dismiss it. -- SkyFury 18:52, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * What do you mean by the first storm in September? Do you mean the first storm that forms in September, or do you mean if a storm is active at the beginning of September, but what if there are two storms or more, do you count the one that formed earlier or closer to September, or the stronger one, because Felix formed I think before September started, and what if Gustav becomes this "first storm in September", or do you count storms at depression status or only TS, etc? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:31, 31 August 2008 (UTC)

I think he means the first storm to form in September, because Gustav will exist in September, and also because some of his links are to the first formed storms, but not the first storms period, in September. On another note, the environment doesn't look very conducive right now either. I could definitely see Ike from this, but I doubt we'll have 'cane No. 5. Squarethecircle 23:31, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. - A depression later today seems plausible. Well, back to Gustav watching. Isfisk 12:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
Up on NHC. Been a while since our last three-storms moment, no? Current forecasts shows it going up to hurricane strength then barelling toward KatRita Expressway (ie, the southern tip or florida or the straits)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:14, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * SHITTHAT'SBAD!! -- SkyFury 16:17, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, this could by Ike at 5pm according to NHC. Expected to travel quickly west and could affect any one of the three vulnerable American cities even though the forecast is high-confidence. ECWMF (dunno if I spelt that right) predicted yesterday it would hit NOLA, and it looks like my US landfall prediction wasn't unfounded, but I predict something a bit different for this storm than NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:36, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Still too early to tell at this point, but I predict, beyond day 5, a cat. 2 landfall on Rum Cay, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Stella Maris, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 2 landfall on southern Exuma Cays, Bahamas, then a cat. 2 landfall near Merkey Town, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 3 landfall between Cutler Ridge and Miami, Florida on the 8th, then a cat. 3 landfall near Niceville, Florida on the 9th, then a cat. 1 landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 12th, then a TS landfall near Asbury Park, New Jersey on the 13th, then a TS landfall near Perth Amboy/Elizabeth, NJ on the 13th, then a TD landfall near Kinston, Ontario on the 15th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:55, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * You forgot the Cat. 5 landfall in the Sea of Tranquility :-p.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh, OK, no, that's impossible. BTW is it true that gas in Montreal is $1.39? Anyway, GFDL and HWRF are shifting its track south, which is bad news for Haiti and NOLA. I expect a track shift to the south and an upgrade to TS by the 5pm advisory. This season's REALLY beginning to pick up now. By the way, in Canada, school doesn't start until after the Labour Day weekend. The last thing New Orleans needs is another hurricane. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * In order: I know it's impossible, but as it's impossible to make predictions worth anything right now, might as well be crazy ; I don't know how much gas cost, I use mass transit, but according to what I find 1.39 is probably around the highest gas gets in the Montreal region, with much lower prices in other parts of town ; The track will probably shift and turn fifty times between now and whenever it makes landfall (if it does) ; and, uh, what does school starting in canada after the labor day weekend have to do with anything?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:40, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ike
The train just keeps rollin' on. -- SkyFury 21:12, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The track is shifting disturbingly close to Miami and NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:29, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Both GFDL and HWRF explode it to a cat. 4 before it even crosses Cuba! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:13, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * An increase in easterly shear is not going to let that happen but now it's not forecast to hit Cuba and is now pointed toward the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane, which is very disconcerting. -- SkyFury 16:35, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Would you care to rephrase that before Ike intensify more? ;-)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:37, 4 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Ike
There we go.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 21:02, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now that it looks like Hanna won't become a major hurricane, Ike is starting to make me a bit nervous... --Patteroast 21:46, 3 September 2008 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Ike
Just updated to a category 3 in a special advisory. If it doesnt make that slightly north turn around midnight saturday than Haiti may have serious problems --Chariot 00:22, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * OMG, this could very easily emerge as a cat. 5 in the Gulf, which is NEVER a good thing. Sky was right, beware the first storm of September. Even since Aug. 31, the ECWMF model (not sure if I spelt that right) predicted Ike to hit NOLA sometime around Sept. 10, and it looks like it might do so. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:45, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't know about that, but this just got ugly really fast. Those winds jumped from 70 knots to 100 knots in three hours. That's obscene. I don't know how that easterly shear will affect Ike but NHC has this thing as a Category 4 pointed right at Key Largo. That is not good. This just stopped stopped being fun and now I'm starting to get scared. I'm all for the raw power of nature, but that shear can feel free to take a bite out of this thing, because whether it hits Florida or not, nothing good can come of a Category 4 headed west across the Atlantic. -- SkyFury 02:07, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Up to category 4, 135mph. Strengthening quite a bit faster than i had initialy expected --Chariot 06:18, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's supposed to weaken for a couple of days and then re-strengthem according to the NHC.But what could happen if it crosses Florida and then gets to intensify over the Loop Current?...is there much chance of that?--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:22, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's certainly not beyond the realm of possibility but right now most of the models seem to be suggesting the cyclone will begin recurving later in the forecast period. A lot of the impact that Ike may end up having will depend on when and if it recurves.  The weakening over the next couple of days isn't likely to be significant and Ike will still be a major hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.  If it makes a hit on Florida and emerges into the Gulf - or worse, sneaks in through the Straits of Florida - well, then things get ugly. Albireo 19:52, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * HWRF (and NHC!) are predicting a cat. 4 or so landfall right on Miami! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:57, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * (Or a Cat. 3 landfall at Ft. Lauderdale if you want to get technical.) The news hasn't gotten any better, despite forecasts of more extensive weakening. NHC is just speculating right now on how much that shear will affect the storm plus there's the ever-present possibility of an eyewall cycle, plus, as NHC points out, the cooler water upwelled by Hanna (the benefits of an active year). -- SkyFury 23:24, 4 September 2008 (UTC)

If you want to go by estimated pressure (I know, I know, but it's still impressive even if it's imprecise), there was a prolonged period of strengthening greater than 6 hPa/h, which I believe counts as "Insane Intensification". The shear seems to be starting to get to it a little, but the structure, albeit very asymmetric, is still supportive of a very intense hurricane. Also, the eye is very round, well-formed, and somewhat warm. The track also looks very nasty. Squarethecircle 23:56, 4 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Now some models are saying Straits of Florida as a predicted path,per NHC 11 PM discussion...so,from there to the Loop Current...could Rita's record as strongest Gulf hurricane fall?(I've thought that the worst case hurricane disaster would be a Rita-at-peak-strength hurricane finishing the 1900 storm's job on Galveston,then heading up the Ship Channel--Shipwreck Channel--into the low-lying areas of Houston).--L.E./12.144.5.2 03:47, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Latest NHC forecast has shifted south and now does indeed point to this scenario. Ouch.  That said, there is still the all-important question of exactly where the storm ends up.  GFDL wants to rake it over Cuba which would help to disrupt the storm (but bad for Cuba).  HWRF wants to turn the hurricane north into the Florida Penninsula.  The CMC model actually recurves the storm before Florida and back out to sea.  Bottom line is this storm could still wind up anywhere, but right now it's looking like Florida and the eastern half of the Gulf are most at risk, rather than Houston/Galveston. Albireo 15:36, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * No. Behave, Ike. No Gulf of Mexico for you. Interesting to note though, after taking it through the Keys a Category 4, NHC weakens it substantially to barely a major hurricane. Though I'm not sure this is any worse than a 125 mph Cat 3 striking South Florida, it certainly isn't any better. I don't know what the best case scenario is and I'm not sure I want to know. -- SkyFury 17:08, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * CMC, GFDL, and UKMET depict a strong possibility of hitting NOLA, with HWRF and NOGAPS more with the Mobile area, and GFS more New York-ish. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:20, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Uh-oh, this is bad...the new track shifted south and it's expected to become a cat. 4 right into the Straits of Florida. This means it could become a cat. 5 in the Gulf and it's heading for the Mississippi-Alabama area. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:07, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * I'm in the NY area so I hope the GFS is wrong.NHC guidance at 5 PM says 115 KT at 72,96,and 120 hours but that's before any potential Loop Current intensification?--Louis E./12.144.5.2 21:13, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

Very significant improvement has occurred over the past few hours with Ike. The eye has redeveloped on microwave and the IR presentation looks very good. Squarethecircle 23:52, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
NRL's showing a new invest, latest wave coming off Africa, right on the coast. --Patteroast 05:28, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 06:26, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Here comes...Josephine? I haven't seen an invest this close to the coast so far this year. We could have 10 storms before the peak of the season even arrives! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Although it hasn't formed yet, I predict TS Josephine on the 3rd with a pass near Fogo Island, Cape Verde, then a cat. 3 pass near Bermuda to the east on the 11th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Musquodobit Harbour, Nova Scotia on the 14th, then a TS landfall near Wood Islands, PEI on the 15th, then a TD landfall near Elmira, PEI on the 15th, then a EX-TD landfall near Cape Ray, Newfoundland on the 16th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * God, here we go again. This has just been an incredible stretch, starting with Fay. We've had four storms in the past week. That's 2005 sh!t right there. I doubt it'll continue like 2005 did but the past ten days have been ridiculous. I don't know what I'm going to do with regards to school. I was going to leave today, but with the conditions in Mobile being what they are, I don't know if that's a good idea. -- SkyFury 17:39, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Four numbered/named systems on the map at once would be quite the sight, for sure. If going by Wiki's list of when systems were active in 2005, I'm not sure even they ever got above a 3-systems scenario. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:49, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

NHC now has it as highest potential: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. Seasos's going wild. Isfisk 18:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * OMG, HWRF turns it into a re-Vince!! If the season's this crazy, and there are ten storms before it usually peaks, then my 20 storms might actually be un underestimate. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:12, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Chill out, HWRF is on drugs. This is the African wave nowhere near the North Atlantic. Guillaume, you are correct, 2005 never had more than three named storms active at once (Maria, Nate and Ophelia from 06Z Sep 7-12Z Sep 10), which we have now. However, that threesome were actually all hurricanes for a brief time (about three hours between 18Z Sep 8 and 00Z Sep 9). The Atlantic has had four hurricanes active at once twice before (1893 and 1998). This appears to be the Atlantic record for both simultaneous hurricanes and simultaneous TCs. Going worldwide, the Eastern Pacific, believe it or not, holds the record for most tropical cyclones active simultaneously in a single basin. On August 26, 1974, five EPAC storms were active at once: Hurricane Ione, Hurricane Joyce, Tropical Storm Kirsten, Tropical Storm Lorraine and Hurricane Maggie. CPAC Tropical Depression Olive was also active until 06Z, bringing the day's TC total to six! The Western Pacific has had three major hurricanes active at once (1987; Freda, Gerald and Holly) as well as two Category 5's active at once (1997 is the only time I know of, the South Pacific also achieved this in 1998). -- SkyFury 22:24, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Dammit. Gustav got its final advisory before Ten could become Josephine. Oh, well. At least we got simultaneous advisory for Gustav, Hanna, Ike and TD-10 at 5 AM, which is already impressive.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 13:53, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten
NRL's got it listed as 10L.NONAME. Judging by the language the NHC is using ("THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 AM AST."), I'd have to assume that we'll get word from NHC shortly. --Patteroast 08:27, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Well that didn't take long. Should be Josephine later today. --Patteroast 08:36, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Josephine
It's official. Albireo 15:13, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Fishie. That's my prediction. I think a weakness in the ridge will eventually develop and allow it to recurve. And from what NHC is saying, Josephine may not even become a hurricane. -- SkyFury 16:37, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Starting to look like it won't even last long enough to recurve... --Patteroast 21:44, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now expected to maintain itself as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:00, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Incidentally, there's apparently a bug on the NHC system. Well, either that, or else Josie has experienced the most cataclysmic pressure drop ever witnessed on earth...;-)(It's a bug, obviously)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:22, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The Bug is now fixed - the central pressure on NHC was reported as 0MB instead of the proper 1002 MB :-D--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:25, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Long term NHC track, while forecasting potential dissipation, calls for a steady intensification when Jo reaches about where Ike is now. Squarethecircle 02:01, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: East of Virgin Islands
NHC has it at low-risk. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now an invest. Not much chance in the short-term, but this could be yet another threat down the line. Bob rulz 20:13, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: West of Josephine
CMC developes it as a separate system. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off Guinea
This system might not look too impressive, but the huge wave behind it is expected to develop by many models. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yesterday, that wave blew me away but now all that impressive convection has vanished. I also think it's too close to Josephine and is getting a face-full of her shear. -- SkyFury 16:45, 3 September 2008 (UTC)

Program for use in tropical cyclone QPF
..but weather weenies might like it too. heheheh  It's a series of scripts that are run in-house through a GUI named cliqr (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/web/cliqr.html), and it runs for all ATCF-entered invests. It shows the rainfall graphics for the systems that most closely match ongoing invests, with greater weight placed on location, size (ROCI), and forward motion than the other parameters. If nothing else, you can look at the list of matches and see where they went. Thegreatdr 23:41, 6 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ooh, grown-up toys, yay! -- SkyFury 05:13, 7 August 2008 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
So, now with six named storms, it seems linke we can discuss retirements now. Here is my take so far: What are your thoughts? 69.92.37.140 00:57, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur - 10% - damage not severe
 * Bertha - 7% - minimal damage
 * Cristobal - 5% - foregettable, hardly caused any damage
 * Dolly - 60% - caused over $1 billion in damage, and 21 deaths
 * Eduoard - 10% - damage total unknown, but probably not severe
 * Fay - 75% - caused over 100 deaths, severe damage possible. Interestingly, this could be the first time the same letter in the same list is retired twice, as Fay replaced Fran for the 2002 season.
 * I'm having a hard time corroborating the 100+ deaths from Fay. Most of the sources I'm finding are suggesting 14, and that the original count from Haiti was greatly exaggerated.  I'd wait till damage figures are in, but right now I'd put Fay at more like 25% based on what I know right now.  I think I'd also nudge Dolly down to 50%, as the death toll/damage estimates are not exceptionally high and the affected countries (US and Mexico) seem to be somewhat conservative with nominating names for retirement. Albireo 15:59, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * By the way, Fay did not replace Fran in the 2002 season, it replaced it in the 1996 season, so this wouldn't be the first time. Here are my estimates:
 * Arthur: 4% - It wasn't that bad, and storms cause mudslides all the time in Central America.
 * Bertha: 3% - Although it broke a few records, damage in Bermuda wasn't severe.
 * Cristobal: 2% - Damage minimal, although this is the only storm so far to follow the Gulf Stream, and it caused some flooding in Nova Scotia, but not much.
 * Dolly: 49% - I'm not going to place any bets on this storm, as damage wasn't really that bad, and most flooding occured inland while it was a depression. However, it is still a devastating storm, which caused over 1 billion in damage, so it has a good chance nevertheless.
 * Edouard: 6% - Although hurricane watches were originally issued, it never became a hurricane and was really not that bad.
 * Fay: 29% 43% - Damages in the US and Cuba were minimal, storms kill dozens in Haiti all the time and not get retired, the bus crash in the Dominican Republic was indirect, but each country does have some chance of retiring it, and it's not done yet. Update: severe flooding in Florida and other places.
 * Gustav: (tenative) 78% 77% - Based on the current forecast, but still too early to tell. Update: over 60 deaths in Haiti, massive evacuation initiated in Louisiana.2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:53, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Hanna: (tenative) 52% 70% - It hasn't done anything yet, but I dunno, I just have a bad feeling about this one... Update: Nearly 140 deaths in Haiti.
 * Ike: (tenative) 80% - I know it hasn't done anything yet, but it could seriously wreck parts of Florida and the Gulf. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:32, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Josephine: (tenative) 21% - It's way too early to tell, and it looks like a dud, but there is a chance it may affect Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:32, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:05, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * So, there you have it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:12, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

Just a comment on the question of whether a name with the same letter has been retired from the same list more than once... it's happened multiple times already. Allen > Andrew (x2) > Alex. Alicia > Allison (x3) > Andrea. Frederic > Fabian (x4) > Fred (upcoming). And most strikingly the back-to-back Marilyn > Michelle > Melissa. --Patteroast 07:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC)
 * When was the last time a tropical storm was retired? One and only Allison? Seems Fay has way to go to reach that. However, if the track swifts a bit more to the south Big Easy might get in troubles. --213.155.231.26 21:06, 21 August 2008 (UTC)

You took my title. Jake52 01:27, 23 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 5%. 9 deaths total and a fair bit of damage. Neither of these are really substantial criterion for retiring a storm.
 * Bertha: 2%. It was a certainly notable tropical cyclone, but that's all it has to its name is notability. It only caused three deaths, and none of these were in Bermuda.
 * Cristobal: 1%. Honestly. The thing did negligibly little. If Chantal wasn't retired last year (and it wasn't), Cristobal stands no chance at all.
 * Dolly: 45%. This goes off estimated damages being equal to or less than final. If the estimates are greater than actual, it's just a 25%. Fair death toll.
 * Edouard: 1%. Ladies and gentlemen...what on Earth did this thing do?
 * Fay: 10%, possibly higher. Fair death toll. Will wait for damage reports.
 * Arthur: 3%: Nothing out of the ordinary, your bog standard storm hitting a Central America coast.
 * Bertha: 12%: Broke a record or two, scared Bermuda. Not much damage though
 * Cristobal: 2%: What did it do again?
 * Dolly: 34%: Whacked south Texas.
 * Edouard: 10%: Made Houston sit up and take note. Didn't do much in the end though.
 * Fay: 39% 59%: Pounded Florida with severe flooding in places. Damage in Carribean was nothing unusual. New Orleans a little lucky not to get a stronger hit due to it staying over the Florida Panhandle.
 * Gustav: Not made landfall yet; too early to tell. - Salak 04:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Eric's divine and always superior pontification:
 * Arthur: 5% - just for catching NHC with its pants around its ankles...and setting a really cool record too.
 * Bertha: 9% - I've always wanted to visit Bermuda, apparently Bertha felt the same way. She had a jolly old time out there for about a month. What is it about Berthas that make them so hard to kill?
 * Cristobal: 4% - Ooh, a storm brushing by the Outer Banks and doing absolutely nothing! Gold star for originality, Cris.
 * Dolly: 33% - Kicked the shit out of South Padre but they came out of it reasonably well.
 * Ed: 10% - nuisance storm. Pissed on a couple people in North Texas but that's about it.
 * Fay: 34% - I think Fay's raised the sea level of the Gulf of Mexico about 8 feet. Pretty much every county in the state of Florida got at least two inches of rain from this thing.
 * Gustav: 73% - I don't think it's a slam dunk, but Gustav gave Cuba a shellacking and those floods in Haiti were really bad.
 * Hanna: Will render a decision this weekend following US landfall.
 * Ike: too early to tell but the forecast doesn't look good.
 * Josephine: again, too early to tell but I don't think it will be a very damaging storm.
 * Will revise as the season goes along. -- SkyFury 04:47, 25 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I think that Fay should be retired... if any of you lived in Orlando you'd understand the extent of the flooding that occured. Lakes that were 3 feet low a week ago are about 8 feet too high now and 4 landfalls... I cant' wait till the next one! 65.244.189.218 09:08, 25 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Having just looked at photos of Florida after Fay, I've upped my figure for its retirement. I've heard quite little about the impact of it here (UK) though; think I've seen it mentioned in the news briefly twice. - Salak 03:58, 26 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I disagree. I don't think it should be retired and I definately don't think it will be retired. The flooding wasn't severe enough or widespread enough, nor did it cause enough damage. The fact that it wasn't a hurricane doesn't help. Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 killed 124 people in Venezuela in catastrophic floods (the exact same number as Ivan) and wasn't retired. -- SkyFury 16:38, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

My own totally non-scientific predictions thus far: Really what it all boils down to, for me, are the criteria upon which storms get retired. Sure, they may have broken a record or been a nuisance, but really these are not things that storms get retired for. To date, I'd not be surprised if no storms are retired - but with September looming and Gustav looking dangerous, I'm sure that sentiment will change. Albireo 22:42, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 0%
 * Bertha: 0%
 * Cristobal: 0% - Let's face it, all three had pretty negligible impact in terms of damage/fatalities, and these are what get storms retired. No sense in giving them a piddly 1 or 2% chance when it ain't gonna happen.
 * Dolly: 40% - Relatively high damage but nothing eye popping.
 * Edouard: 0% - As above.
 * Fay: 33% - Helluva wet storm, but I'm not willing to up the odds unless some striking damage figures come out.
 * Gustav: 90% - Based on damages to Cuba, large-scale evacuations and disruptions. Could go higher when actual damage estimates come in.

I'm new but heres mine perdiction so far: I excluded cristobal on the list because it hardly did anything               Looks like this season already has another hurricane to my perdictions this  season will be big. J.T 2:54, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 0% - A little tiny storm that hit that was was brought to life by a pacific hurricane not happenin
 * Bertha: 1% - sure the long lived july storm but did nothing but died in iceland
 * Dolly: 42% Even though its an estimate its possible come on people
 * Edouard: 5% Face it this storm should have been retired back in 96 and I was 2 years old
 * Fay: 48% - If this name gets retired i runnin up the hills like allison
 * Gustav: 100% - Since we havent had an official cat 4 in a while this will so be it, estiimate 20.0 billions goodbye gustav
 * Hanna: 35% - 19 deaths possibly
 * Ike: 45% - Already a cat 4 could be strongest of the season                 * Josephine: 0% - Turned around to myself turns outs shes a fucking dud another cris

Cleaning up the clutter
I've just archived the August discussion (excluding active storms) and Fay to their own archive pages; apologies if I wasn't supposed to do that. The page was just getting way too cluttered for me. Probably want to give Gustav its archive page soon, too. Thoughts?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:10, 2 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Agreed. I just archived some old July discussion last week. I would keep Gustav up for at least another week as aftermath reports come in. HPC is still issuing advisories on inland flood threats from the remnants of Gustav. -- SkyFury 16:50, 3 September 2008 (UTC)


 * How about partially archiving and leaving the last two or three parts of it? Do we really still need the sub-section about Gustav-as-an-invest? --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:01, 3 September 2008 (UTC)