Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season

Future Start
Same with ATL and EPac. Betting pools for the WPac and NIO will be made once 2013 is over. Ryan1000 01:08, October 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here are my predictions for the Western Pacific (using JMA categories):

60 total depressions, 33 total tropical storms, 27 total severe tropical storms, 21 total typhoons (11 strong, 6 intense, and 4 violent), and an ACE of 450 (give or take 25). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:51, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * 60 depressions? Are you trying to predict the most active season in world history or something?! I don't think we will get even close to that number of depressions. Heck, we might not even reach 40. Anyway, time for my predictions, which are meant to be realistic as I can: 35 total depressions, 28 total tropical storms, 23 total severe tropical storms, 16 total typhoons (10 strong, 5 intense, and 2 violent). Steven  09876  ✉  05:34, January 4, 2014 (UTC)

July
Welcome to July in the Western Pacific! It has been a little boring here recently, but that should soon turn around, as some computer models are forecasting. I predict 7 depressions, 4 storms, 3 severe tropical storms, and 3 typhoons for July, two of which should come by next week. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:15, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Right here is a good candidate for the first July typhoon of the season, Invest 90W! Located 120 nm east of Chuuk, multispectural imagery (MSI) shows a broad trough with flaring convection, containing several vortices. With five to ten knots of wind shear and a developing poleward outflow channel feeding a TUTT cell, the models go wicked with the invest after 96 hours. We are bound to see some significant development here! Winds are at 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa). For the next 24 hours, however, its chances of formation are assessed to be low. Personally, I see a Category 1-2 typhoon smashing into the Philippines and China sometime in the next 10 days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:15, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Invest 90W is now at 8.4N 148.3E, 335 nm southeast of Guam. Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidating yet poorly organized LLCC with forming convective banding on the southern quadrant. With good outflow and low vertical wind shear, the environment is favorable for additional intensification. Steady intensification is expected from most models over the next several days as Invest 99W moves westwards at seven knots. Per the JTWC, one-minute winds are estimated to be at 18 to 23 knots (21 to 26 mph) (I assure you this is not an error) with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). A TCFA has been issued and the chances of formation for the next 24 hours have rapidly increased to high. Meanwhile, the JMA has classified Invest 90W as a weak tropical depression with ten-minute winds of <30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). Given its large size, I personally see a Category 2 typhoon at most from our new system. Go, WPAC!!! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:09, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Don't get too excited Andrew, this one is forecast to become a category 3 in 4 days and head towards southern Japan as a cat 2/cat 1. Future Neoguri could be the first big storm of the season. Ryan1000 11:15, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 08W
This storm is really beginning to take off. The JMA report the depression's winds to be 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). In 24 hours, the JMA predict a temporary forecast peak of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute winds) /1000 mbar (hPa). Meanwhile, the JTWC have recently upgraded Invest 90W into Tropical Storm 08W. They report winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). In roughly 96 hours, however, the JTWC explode 08W to a 105 knot (120 mph) (1-minute winds) Category 3 typhoon very near Kadena Air Force Base with gusts of 130 knots (150 mph). So I will stop cheering for this storm and pray the best for Japan. Also, the entire northern half of this system is virtually nonexistent. Is dry air penetrating Tropical Storm 08W? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

The Euro is predicting a cat 5 of this system, not sure what name it will be but our three best models are precting a cat 5 so its probable it might happen.Allanjeffs 21:49, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * That's not good, especially if it holds onto that intensity far enough north. I don't expect it to if it does so, storms normally weaken quite a bit before landfall in Japan, but they still better prepare for it. Allan, like I mentioned before, this storm would be Neoguri if it's named. Ryan1000 22:02, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Nothing much has changed from the JMA side, but the JTWC now report winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph). The JTWC now take Tropical Storm 08W to 125 knots (145 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 150 knots (175 mph). Yikes, now I will be quiet about this system. Even worse, a forecasted Category 3-4 landfall is predicted over southern Japan southeast of Sasago. The tropics are taking a turn for the worst... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:34, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Haven't checked out the WPac lately, especially due to Arthur and the EPac storms, but I think 08W might be a potentially destructive storm for Japan. And yep, the tropics do seem to be taking a turn for the worst with this WPac storm and Arthur in the Atlantic. Prepare, Japan!  Steve  820  ✉   04:54, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

Typhoon Neoguri (Florita)
Oh my goodness, 08W is really beginning to take off now! It is already classified as Typhoon Neoguri (a South Korean word for raccoon dog) by the JMA. They estimate winds of 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg). Meanwhile, the JTWC have the typhoon with 65 knot (75 mph, 120 km/h) winds (1-minute) with gusts of 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h). The JMA explode Neoguri to 90 knots (105 mph, 170 km/h) (10-minute winds) /930 mbar (hPa) in the next three days, while the JTWC take it straight to super typhoon intensity - 130 knots (150 mph, 240 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 160 knots (185 mph, 300 km/h)! Even more, look at this beast!!! I can see a clear eyewall trying to form in there! The JMA take Neoguri more westwards almost directly over the Ryukyu Islands, and the JTWC have shifted the forecast track westwards so that Kadena Air Force Base, Sasago, Hiroshima, Busan, and the remainder of western Japan and southeastern South Korea will likely witness greater impact. I know everyone is really focused on Arthur right now in the Atlantic, but Neoguri will be a far greater threat to Japan than Arthur ever was to America. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:57, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

Well Andrew post first when I was editing but people, forget about Arthur models are forecasting this thing to have a pressure of 892 or lower I have never seen the models come with that type of pressure. Btw the gfs is even showing a storm even bigger than the Phillippines. This is scary.Allanjeffs 21:01, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * I know, this is a really scary storm. Japan might even get devastated in the long run. Stay safe Japan! And about the models forecasting 892 mbar pressure, that's just really, really insane! :O--  Steve  820  ✉   21:49, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Current JTWC forecast makes it a cat 5 in Okinawa. That's very scary. It's also forecast to turn and hit the northwestern edge of the southernmost island of Japan, and that area has had the top 3 most destructive typhoons in Japan's history. This worries me a lot more than Arthur. Stay safe... Ryan1000 01:53, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri is now at 75 knots (85 mph, 135 km/h) (10-minute winds) /960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg) per the JMA and at 90 knots (105 mph, 170 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 110 knots (125 mph). The JMA steers it very near Kadena Air Force Base as a 90 knot (105 mph) (10-minute), 925 mbar (hPa; 27.31 inHg) mega typhoon, while the JTWC take it straight over Kadena as a 140 knot (160 mph) (1-minute winds) Category 5 monster with gusts of 170 knots (195 mph). RI is commencing in Neoguri as we speak. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:59, July 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast calls for Neoguri to be a 140 mph storm when it nears (or hits) southern Japan. Japan hasn't seen a category 4 typhoon since Super Typhoon Jean in 1965, which hit the same area Neoguri is expected to. Evacuations better be under way now or very soon, because this could be one of the strongest typhoons to hit Japan in a long time. Ryan1000 11:25, July 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Man, this is starting to scare me. Japan might be devastated by the strongest storm to strike them since 1965! Well, preperations better be underway, 'cause this storm could be really devastating...--  Steve  820  ✉   16:38, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * After Arthur has dissipated everyone's attention is now on Neoguri, and I have to say: Wow this thing has EXPLODED! It was just a Cat. 1 strength typhoon last night, so imagine my shock when I woke up and saw that this was a Cat. 4. It is also expected to be the first Cat. 5 super typhoon of the season! leeboy100 (talk) 18:31, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Leeboy, Arthur is not done yet; Canada is still feeling some effects from it. In regards to Neoguri, it is going through a clear round of rapid intensification. The JMA have upgraded Neoguri's winds to 85 knots (100 mph, 160 km/h) (10-minute winds) and lowered its pressure to 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg), easily displacing Faxai as the season's strongest storm. In addition, the JTWC now report winds of 115 knots (130 mph, 210 km/h) gusting to 140 knots (160 mph), making the typhoon, as Leeboy said, a Category 4 system. The JMA now take Neoguri even more westwards than before, slicing straight through the heart of the Ryukyu Islands and then aiming directly for Jeju Island. Numerous major Asian cities, including Taipei, Shanghai, Seoul, Osaka, and Tokyo, are all in the forecast cone for Neoguri, which could affect dozens of millions of people. Fortunately, the agency expects some slight weakening from Neoguri, but not before reaching peak winds of 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 920 mbar (hPa; 27.17 inHg). This would displace Ian and Ita as the strongest system worldwide in terms of pressure. At the same time, the JTWC take the typhoon very near Kadena Air Force Base and Okinawa as a monster 150 knot (175 mph, 280 km/h) (1-minute winds) system with accompanying gusts of 180 knots (205 mph, 330 km/h)! Not only can I not recall a typhoon of that intensity ever striking Okinawa, but Danas from last year looks like a failure compared to Neoguri! Even more, much of Japan and all of South Korea are in the JTWC forecast cone! You better fear this stud! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:21, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri has been named Florita by PAGASA. They report winds of 160 km/h (100 mph, 85 knots) (10-minute) gusting to 195 km/h (120 mph, 105 knots). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:41, July 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is really strong, and it'll probably be worse for mainland Japan than Okinawa due to the larger population and infrastructure. Arthur is moving northward through Atlantic Canada right now, and he'll be gone for good in a day or two. Neoguri will probably be a cat 5 in a few days, hopefully it weakens enough before it's landfall in Japan, the last thing they need is a destructive typhoon. Ryan1000 21:19, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Holy crap, this is not good at all, not only will this probably be a Cat. 5 it will affect MILLIONS of people. Why is it that when we have a big super typhoon in the WPAC it has to cause so much death and destruction half the time. It would be much better if all these Cat. 5 super typhoons stayed out to sea and then they would be beautiful to track. Stay safe, everyone
 * leeboy100 (talk) 23:57, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * I was expecting to see a Cat. 5 when I woke up, the good news (not really) is this is still a cat. 4, bad news is that it's still a huge typhoon and will likely affect lots of landmasses. BTW where did everyone else go?  leeboy100 (talk) 14:40, July 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I haven't checked what the JMA has said, but according to the JTWC, Neoguri hasn't budged in intensity since it hit 120 kts (1-min) yesterday. Maybe it won't be as bad as previously thought... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:53, July 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's forecast to become a cat 5 later on, but if it doesn't intensify much further than where it is now, I agree that it might not be as bad as we initially feared it would be, but it's forecast to peak in a day or two, so the worst may actually be yet to come. Either way, stay tuned. Ryan1000 18:47, July 6, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Where are you guys getting the notion Neoguri is standing still? The JMA now reports winds of 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 935 mbar (hPa; 27.61 inHg). Meanwhile, the JTWC has now classified the typhoon as our year's first super, with winds of 130 knots (150 mph, 240 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 160 knots (185 mph). The JMA forecast a peak intensity of 105 knots (120 mph) (10-minute) /910 mbar (hPa) before a direct hit over much of the Ryukyu Islands, and then to weaken to 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute winds) /950 mbar (hPa) before landfall over Mainland Japan. Shanghai, all of South Korea including Busan, Seoul, and Incheon, and much of Western Japan - containing Kumamoto, Hiroshima, Osaka, Kyoto, Kobe, and Nagoya - are in the JMA forecast cone. The JTWC, on the other hand, expects Neoguri to reach 145 knots (165 mph) (1-minute winds) with gusts of 175 knots (200 mph) just west of Okinawa. They still, however, forecast a very strong landfall for Japan (Category 3+) near Sasebo. Busan and Shanghai are in the JTWC cone, in addition to all of Japan! Look at that crystal clear eye of Neoguri! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:50, July 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * It looks very great and breathtaking. But like I said before, this could get really devastating, hopefully Japan and nearby countries are prepared for Neoguri...--  Steve  820  ✉   15:25, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Last Dvorak estimates put the storm at 4.5/5.5. I don't think it'll be able to restrengthen to Cat 4-5 before it hits colder waters south of Japan. --Fred22 (talk) 15:45, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Something weird is going on with Neoguri. The JMA reports the same winds as before with a slight pressure drop to 930 mbar (hPa; 27.46 inHg). However, per the JTWC, the typhoon has really crashed down to 110 knots (125 mph, 200 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 135 knots (155 mph). This may have been caused by an ERC in the system. Although some forecast models are predicting reintensification, the disruption of Neoguri is significant enough that I agree with Fred's statement - it has lost an oppurtunity to become our season's first Category 5. The JTWC now only expect a landfall of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute) from the typhoon gusting to 85 knots (100 mph) over Kyushu Island near Sasebo. The JMA expect steady weakening from the typhoon, down to 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h) (10-minute) accompanied by a pressure of 980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg) over the next three days. They expect Neoguri's landfall intensity to be of weak typhoon or strong severe tropical storm status. Naha City in Okinawa is reporting gusts of 43 mph along with heavy rain. Miyako-jima is reporting winds of 33 mph gusting to 53 mph. Also, for your information, regardless of how strong Neoguri is at its landfall, Kyushu does not need it. A stationery front brought nearly a foot of rain to some regions of the island, some totals of which are record breaking. Continue to prepare, Japan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:09, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * There is no ERC in the system. The cause for the weakening is dry air in the <500mb layer. Neoguri should still be devastating for Japan as long as it doesn't lose its warm-core circulation. A TUTT far east of Neoguri could start affecting its outflow to the SE should Neoguri recurve. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:17, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri is down to 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute winds) with a pressure of 945 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. Nothing much has changed from the JTWC side. Shanghai seems to be getting some clouds from the typhoon, where my relations live. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Neoguri has really shrunk over the past day or so, and now it's forecast to make landfall only as a category 1. It still might cause extensive damage in parts of Nagasaki, but the good news is, it won't be as bad as it could've been. Ryan1000 19:20, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri (pronounced NAW-guh-ree) continues to fall apart. Its eyewall has completely eroded on satellite imagery. The JMA have lowered the typhoon's winds to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute) and raised its pressure to 960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg). The JTWC have lowered Neoguri's one-minute winds to 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph, 210 km/h). Both the JMA and JTWC expect the storm to be of barely typhoon intensity at landfall. Much of Hokkaido has been spared from the forecast cone of Neoguri. Wind damage should not be a major concern for Japan, but heavy rainfall which could add on the flooding triggered by a stationery front last week in Kyushu, including Nagasaki. One person has been reported dead, along with 25 injuries. Here you can find a link to some more facts regarding Neoguri, and here you can see a satellite image of the typhoon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:57, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Japan really dodged a bullet from Neoguri, as we could have been seeing a powerful typhoon or possibly super typhoon affecting them. Hopefully Neoguri isn't too bad for them. BigO99 (talk) 01:24, July 9, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri
Well, Neoguri is really quickly crashing apart. The storm is no longer a typhoon per the JMA, with ten-minute winds of 55 knots (65 mph) and a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa). The JTWC still reports a weak typhoon, with winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 85 knots (100 mph). Both the JMA and JTWC expect the storm to hit Kyushu as a moderate tropical storm. The JTWC satellite image shows no eyewall in Neoguri. A second fatality has been reported. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:10, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri is just about to make landfall over Japan. The JTWC has downgraded Neoguri to a strong tropical storm with winds of 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). The JMA has also downgraded the storm slightly to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute winds) with a pressure pf 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg). Landfall near Sasebo is expected within 12 hours as a moderate tropical storm from both agencies. Neoguri should then graze the Taheiyo Belt of Japan, which contains Osaka, Nagoya, and Tokyo, as a dying system and then become extratropical within 48 to 72 hours. A third fatality has been reported from a drowning offshore of Shikoku following the capsizing of a vessel. It also appears Neoguri's northern and western quadrants have been eroded away. Japan, feel lucky you do not have a super typhoon coming down on your soil right now! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:38, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri has made landfall over Japan near Nagasaki, and it is now over central Kyushu. The storm's pressure has risen to 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg), and JTWC winds have fallen to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h). Extratropical transition is now expected in 24 to 36 hours as the system moves over the most populous regions of Japan. Neoguri is basically dead. Do not be surprised if America starts to feel a little cold. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:28, July 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri is almost all but dead. The JMA have raised the storm's pressure to 990 mbar (hPa) as it closes in on Nagoya. The storm should graze Tokyo as a weak tropical storm and then become extratropical within 24 hours, per both agencies. Two additional fatalities have been reported from Neoguri. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Luckily it won't be as bad for Japan as it would've been. I'm glad it significantly weakened before reaching Japan, or else it would've been a big disaster. Bye, Neoguri!--  Steve  820  ✉   17:03, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Neoguri
Neoguri is continuing to perish. The JTWC have stopped issuing advisories on the storm, and the JMA have downgraded its winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute). Extratropical transition is expected in the next 12 to 24 hours. Rainfall of 13.20 inches (335.5 mm) of rain has been reported in Kyushu, and parts of central Japan, including Nagoya, will potentially witness 16 inches (400 mm) of rain from Neoguri. From here, the system will indirectly trigger an extreme position of the jet stream similar to the "Polar Vortex" witnessed from January. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:29, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Neoguri
Neoguri has become a remnant low per the JMA. With just seven fatalities, it is clear the storm was not the beast we all feared. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:33, July 11, 2014 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
The fun is doubled! A second area of convection dubbed Invest 91W by the JTWC is currently located at 14.4N 130.3E, 495 nm north-northwest of Koror, Palau. Infrared satellite imagery shows flaring convection is present on the northwestern quadrant of a disorganized LLCC. A 1811Z microwave image displays fragile banding loosely wrapping into the LLCC. Compared to Invest 90W, 91W should develop more slowly because of moderate to high vetical wind shear of 10 to 20 knots and fair outflow. JTWC reports winds of 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute winds) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa), and assesses its probability for development in the next 24 hours as low. Sorry for the WPAC bias, but I am really excited for development here, and I think Invest 91W will become a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:16, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 91W is now located near 13.5N 128.2E, 525 nm northwest of Palau. Multispectural satellite imagery depicts a broad, exposed LLCC with deep disorganized convection to its western side. An 0134Z ASCAT image already shows a closed circulation, however. Broad diffluent flow and moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear of 15 to 25 knots (15 to 30 knots) are present around the system. The current JTWC intensity is still 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute winds) /1006 mbar (hPa), and the chances of formation for the next 24 hours remain low. If Invest 91W does develop, I predict a moderate tropical storm at strongest. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, I don't think it'll become much. Might become a TS briefly though.  Steve  820  ✉   04:56, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 91W has dissipated and is off the JTWC outlook. Time to focus on Neoguri... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:27, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
While I don't normally care too much about WPac invests, this one could be potentially devastating for Ryukyu, Taiwan and China. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:28, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 92W is at 9.1N 151.8E, 103 nm north of Chuuk. Multispectural satellite imagery shows a compact system with formative bands tightening into an obscured LLCC. With dual outflow enhanced by a TUTT cell to Invest 92W's northeast and western outflow enchanced by strong easterly winds, there is a pretty favorable enviornment for the invest. Per the JTWC, GFS is very aggressive with this system. JTWC winds - 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph), JTWC pressure - 1007 mbar (hPa). Chances for development in the next 24 hours - medium. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:22, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Invest 92W is now located at 9.9N 151.7E, 455 nm east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. Multiple tubal satellite imagery reveals a compact system obscuring a consolidated LLCC. An SSMIS microwave image reveals most of the deep convection is over the western quadrant of the invest, wrapping into the LLCC. With the TUTT cell and western outflow still present, numerical weather models, namely GFS, are being super aggressive with the invest. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) (1-minute) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg) per the JTWC. Because of increasing organization and favorable conditions, the agency has raised Invest 92W's probability for formation in the next 24 hours to high and issued a TCFA. Meanwhile, the JMA have classified the invest as a tropical depression with winds of <55 km/h (30 knots, 35 mph) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). I am really scared as to what will happen next. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:03, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09W
The JTWC have initiated advisories on Tropical Depression 09W. Located 303 nm east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, they report winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h). The JTWC forecast for the depression looks rather scary for the next few days. They show a modest typhoon of 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (1-minute) with gusts of 115 knots (130 mph, 210 km/h) aimed straight for the Philippines, which could affect thousands. On the JMA side, they report the same intensity as before, and predict intensification into a tropical storm in 24 hours to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) /998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg). Tropical Depression 09W looks to be very scary. I hope everyone is prepared for what is to come. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:37, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 09W
Nothing much has changed on the JMA side. However, the JTWC have upgraded Tropical Depression 09W to a weak 35 knot (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute winds) tropical storm with gusts of 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h). Located 224 nm east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base, they forecast the storm to slam into Luzon as a 110 knot (125 mph) (1-minute winds) major typhoon with gusts of 135 knots (155 mph). The models were not kidding with this system. In fact, 09W looks more like a strong tropical storm on satellite imagery! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:38, July 11, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09W (2nd time)
Yikes, it looks like the shear ate up some of 09W overnight. The JTWC have lowered the system's winds to 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h), while the JMA have upped its pressure to 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.77 inHg). I know tropical storm warnings were in effect for Guam, but I am not sure if they have been cancelled, as Tropical Depression 09W is basically 63 nm east-southeast of Andersen Air Force Base. The JMA now delays the depression's intensification to a tropical storm for another 24 hours, and the JTWC has lowered their forecast peak for 09W to 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph). Maybe this depression will not be as bad as some models feared... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:05, July 11, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rammasun
It has been named Rammasun by JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:51, July 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * Forecast to become a cat 2 as it hits the Philippines, then weaken to a cat 1 as it heads into the SCS and eventually into southern China or northern Vietnam. Earlier on I was fearing Rammasun could threaten HK, but now it looks as though it will stay south of them. Ryan1000 21:57, July 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow, Rammasun (the name for the Thai god of thunder) has struggled much more than I expected, primarily due to the wind shear. Even with some more convective banding, the JMA declare the storm's winds to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). The JTWC also reports winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h). The JMA does expect modest intensification to 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute winds) /950 mbar (hPa) in the next 48 to 72 hours before landfall over Luzon. The JTWC expect Rammasun to scrape Luzon with winds of 80 to 85 knots (90 to 100 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 105 knots (120 mph) before entering the South China Sea. Afterwards, I feel Hainan and Greater Nanning will get directly affected by the storm. He may look weak right now, but do not underestimate the god of thunder! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:33, July 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * Rammasun has gotten no better organized on satellite imagery. Neither the JMA nor the JTWC have made any changes in its intensity. The JMA now only expects a peak of 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute winds) /965 mbar (hPa) before landfall over the Philippines. The JTWC have lowered their forecast peak before landfall to 65 knots (75 mph) (1-minute winds) with gusts of 80 knots (90 mph). However, they do expect reintensification to 80 knots (90 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 100 knots (115 mph) before landfall in southern China. I am starting to feel this blob might actually affect China more than the Philippines. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:34, July 13, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
With four storms at hand, I feel like we can start this section.


 * 1) January JMA Tropical Depression - 0% - For obvious reasons.
 * 2) Lingling - 15% - I don't know what to say here. Seventy people is a hefty fatality number from all that flooding in the Philippines, but worse has struck and evicted them.
 * 3) *Agaton - 25% - Usually, it takes 300 fatalities to bust out a PAGASA name, but Agaton was a very nasty early season surprise for them.
 * 4) Kajiki - 5% - Seven fatalities and an early season Philippine landfall is probably all Kajiki will be remembered for, and Lingling was worse.
 * 5) *Basyang - 10% - I feel Agaton was worse, although Basyang did kill seven and produce minor impacts.
 * 6) Faxai - 0% - Became a breathtaking March typhoon, but caused no land impacts, so no.
 * 7) March JMA Tropical Depression - 0%
 * 8) 04W - 0% - Not named by the JMA.
 * 9) *Caloy - 1% - Even Basyang was worse!
 * 10) Peipah - 0.1% - This could have been a much different story for the Philippines. Luckily, Peipah was kept in check.
 * 11) *Domeng - 0.1% - Caloy was worse than you!
 * 12) Mitag - 0.5% - Mitag zipped by a number of areas, but it had very little impact whatsoever outside of the Philippines.
 * 13) *Ester - 2% - Some slight flooding was reported in the Philippines, but no damages or fatalites have been reported.
 * 14) Hagibis - 8% - Well, the $131 million (2014 USD) was more than I expected. But even with 11 casualties, I do not think Hagibis will get retired.
 * 15) Neoguri - 10% - With seven fatalities and slight to moderate damage across Okinawa and Japan, I do not expect Neoguri's demise yet.
 * 16) *Florita - 0% - To my knowledge, Florita completely missed the Philippines.

Post yours, too! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

Steven's retirement predictions:

JMA names
 * Lingling: 20% - 70 deaths but still doesn't seem bad enough for a retirement.
 * Kajiki: 5% - Slight impacts for the Philippines, but Lingling was worse.
 * Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon, but still no land impacts.
 * Peipah: 1% - Umm, no.
 * Tapah: 0% - No land was harmed in the making of Tapah.
 * Mitag: 0.5% - Very little impact.
 * Hagibis: 5% - $131 million in China and 11 deaths, but it most likely won't be retired.
 * Neoguri: ? - Still active

PAGASA names
 * Agaton: 30% - What a nasty early season surprise, might be retired but at the same time I think not.
 * Basyang: 10% - 7 deaths, however, Agaton was worse and Basyang barely has a chance.
 * Caloy: 1% - Seriously? Even Basyang was worse than you.
 * Domeng: 0.01% - Lol, this epic fail couldn't even compete with Caloy! :O It still affected land though, so I tacked a "0.01%" on Domeng.
 * Ester: 1% - Some flooding in the Philippines but it's not getting the boot.
 * Florita: 0% - Missed the Philippines

 Steve  820  ✉   20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC) (Last updated: 17:04, July 10, 2014 (UTC))

Not much to say right now, but, why not...

JMA names: PAGASA names:
 * Lingling - 38% - 70 deaths isn't anything to laugh at, but enough for retirement? Probably not, unfortunately.
 * Kajiki - 3% - Caused some impacts, but it's nothing retirement-worthy.
 * Faxai - 0% - Became a typhoon, that's about it.
 * Peipah - 7% - Wasn't anything severe.
 * Tapah - 0% - No notable impact.
 * Mitang - 0% - Didn't know this one existed lol.
 * Hagbis - 15% - 131 million in damage and 11 deaths isn't a fail, but it's not enough to get the boot either.
 * Neoguri - 14% - Killed 7 people and caused some damage here and there, but Japan has seen worse and I don't expect it to be retired.
 * Agaton - 35% - A bit higher than it's JMA name, but even so, I have doubts it will go.
 * Basyang - 8% - Killed a few people and caused some damage, but it was far less devastating than Agaton, and many other storms that have hit the islands in the past.
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Is this a joke?
 * Domeng - 0% - Didn't cause severe effects to the Philipines.
 * Ester - 0% - Missed them completely.
 * Florita - 0% - Not even close.

That sums it up. Ryan1000 23:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

71.187.140.146's retirements PAGASA TO BE CONTIUNTED 71.187.140.146 23:17, May 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lingling - 15%
 * Kajiki  - 0.05%
 * Faxai - 0% - Good job Faxai.
 * Peipah - 8% -  for its name sounds like Peppa(which was called Peppa Pig)
 * Tapah - 0.5% - Tapah reminds me of a Japanese Man
 * Agaton - 25%
 * Basyang - 9%
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Funny name
 * Domemeng - 4% - lower than JMA name