Forum:2015 Pacific typhoon season

Betting pools for this page

95W.INVEST
twin system of 90P. GFS says it will track north. then straight into the Phillipines and crosses into the NIO, where it possibly regenerates.  totally destructive  | get hyper! 16:05, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Chan-Hom
This one is well out to sea, forecast to become a typhoon when it nears the Mariana Islands in 4-5 days. Ryan1000 14:20, June 30, 2015 (UTC)

w00t! If this is a Category 5, we can see a third-in-a-row! (not counting storms that didn't make it to STS status or higher) --Puffle Let's party HARD!  16:26, June 30, 2015 (UTC)

chanhom going to absorb 94W.  totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:41, July 1, 2015 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Chan-hom
if you think that Chan-hom is a ball of convection. think again... GFS deepens it up to 880mb on the 06z run.  totally destructive  | get hyper! 16:03, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

spoke too early. now a C1. but what happens if it does EI or RI?  totally destructive  | get hyper! 01:06, July 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Almost a typhoon now, and the forecast peak is raised to cat 4, Chan-Hom could even be yet another cat 5 if it intensifies fast enough. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * well its now an pellet of convection now!  totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:47, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Chan-hom's eye is currently passing like Dolphin did. GFS is predicting an category 5 landfall near Shanghai,China  ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 23:36, July 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * God forbid that ever happen, a super typhoon hitting Shanghai would be one of the top 3 worst-case scenarios for a typhoon in the West Pacific to ever do, alongside Hong Kong and Tokyo. I doubt that will happen, but the JTWC's track still shows a cat 3 heading in the direction of Shanghai sometime late next week, which would still be a pretty bad scenario. Ryan1000 03:33, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

@Ryan. I meant an possible C5 landfall.

Chan-hom eyewall is randomly moving between the island of Rota. already reporting 15 inches of rain! in Guam.  ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 04:20, July 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * A "super typhoon" as (unofficially) defined by the JTWC has winds of 150 mph or higher, which is a strong category 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, and a strong C4 landfall would have pretty much the same outcome as a 5. Again, I'd be very surprised if Chan-Hom can pull off a cat 5 landfall in Shanghai, but a cat 3 isn't out of the question, which would still be pretty bad. The GFS recently tracked southward on this, taking it south of Shanghai as a 960 mbar cat 3 strength storm, but the Euro takes it further north, near or right over the city as a 944 mbar cat 4. Either way, this definitely bears watching for China. Ryan1000 11:42, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

Typhoon Chan-Hom
Now a cat 1, but Chan-Hom is still expected to be a formidable cat 4 when it nears China later this week, it'll probably be well south of Shanghai, but still, it could be destructive to cities further south. Ryan1000 21:05, July 6, 2015 (UTC)

a lot of dry air is in Chan-hom's circulation. which should prevent a big intesification phase.  ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 01:59, July 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * But at the cost of less intensity, this thing has gotten really big over the past days, and even if it doesn't directly hit Shanghai, it'll still be bringing rough weather to the city, and the latest forecast now turns it north and then northeast just after it moves ashore south of Shanghai, meaning the city might not get off as easily as I earlier anticipated. Fortunately, by that time it's only expected to be a category 1 storm. Ryan1000 20:27, July 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's a 115 mph cat 3, and forecast to become a 4. This is becoming a fairly threatening storm for parts of China. Ryan1000 17:32, July 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * and is not over yet. Chan-hom is possibly under an RI stage now. current JTWC track is sending it directly over shanghai as a weak TS -- the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:44, July 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * The storm is weakening now, to 105 mph, and it's also projected to turn north now, just before it makes landfall in China. It seems Shanghai will be getting off easiler than they could've been. It could still deliver some rough surf to them, but they probably won't suffer a direct hit by now. Ryan1000 04:07, July 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * And making landfall as a strong category 2 south of the city, but if it becomes a strong category 4 like Nangka is right now, it might make landfall as a strong 3 and pass over Shanghai as a 2, which would bring a dangerous storm surge to the city. Fortunately, the city has a 20-foot floodwall to protect the downtown area from a 1-in-1000 year storm surge, a storm would have to directly hit the city at a very high intensity to cause a significant disaster. But that doesn't mean a weaker storm like Chan-Hom can't cause some heavy damage to the city, mainly due to it's large size. It's definitely a storm to prepare for.  Ryan1000 02:48, July 10, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Chan-Hom
It died after making landfall in North Korea as a depression, but it caused some 306 million in amage to Shanghai. Then again, that's not the worst it could've been, they got lucky from this one. Ryan1000 20:09, July 13, 2015 (UTC)

10W.LINFA
as everyone is focused on chan-hom. another invest pops up. (like gremlins, you pour water on them and they duplicate) totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:18, June 30, 2015 (UTC)

T.C.F.A. issued. TD by JMA and named Egay by PAGASA.  totally destructive  | get hyper! 22:20, July 1, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Linfa
who knew?  totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:29, July 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wha...well, I didn't expect this one to jump up so fast. Expected to become a typhoon as it passes northern, or just north of, Luzon in a few days. Won't be as strong as Chan-Hom though. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Currently stalling or moving very slowly over northern Luzon, it'll gradually creep it's way further north towards Taiwan over the next 3-4 days. Ryan1000 11:42, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

JTWC is being dumb and its still keeping it at 60kn, does this have more than 60kn?  ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 16:20, July 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Linfa briefly became a typhoon yesterday, but it appears to have lost it's deep convection lately as it moved over China near Hong Kong. But it won't be as serious as Chan-Hom will be. Ryan1000 17:32, July 9, 2015 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Another one out there, this one is somewhat near to Chan-Hom. Ryan1000 04:43, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nangka
dang. the WPac is officially on fire.  totally destructive  | get hyper! 15:33, July 3, 2015 (UTC)

officially named.  ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 20:31, July 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well I'll be, this is gonna be a helluva ride for the Marianas over the next couple of days. Due to its proximity to Chan-Hom, the former weakened recently and it might have some trouble strengthening, as could this, but once they move away from each other, they'll have a chance at becoming typhoons. Ryan1000 20:52, July 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Nangka tore roofs from homes and downed trees and power lines. Nearly half of the nation's capital city of the same name were left without power. This could have a shot at typhoon status and/or retirement. --Puffle Let's party HARD!  18:23, July 4, 2015 (UTC)

still Nangka has a chance of doing an RI phase if Chan-hom moves away enough  ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 23:39, July 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * It probably won't be as threatening in the long term as Chan-Hom, both the GFS and ECMWF recurve this out to sea before reaching Japan. It could become strong, but aside from some minor flooding in the Marianas and Marshalls, this won't be that severe. Ryan1000 03:47, July 5, 2015 (UTC)

Typhoon Nangka
Wow, I didn't expect Nangka to get stronger than Chan-Hom today, it's a cat 2 now on the Saffir-Simpson Scale and forecast to become a 3 shortly. Ryan1000 21:05, July 6, 2015 (UTC) ...the GFS is sending Nangka towards... tokyo? still, it's battling dry air and could go RI. <font face="Comic Sans MS"> ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) totally destructive ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)  | get hyper! 01:55, July 7, 2015 (UTC) It'll probably turn away before reaching them, but it's still a very strong storm, now winds are up to 140 mph and forecast to become a 160 mph cat 5 shortly. Ryan1000 20:27, July 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * Super typhoon now with the same wind speeds as Dolphin (according to Wikipedia) Dolphin part 2

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  14:27, July 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's actually 155, not 160. But it's so close to cat 5 strength, I'd be surprised if it's not one later today. Ryan1000 17:32, July 9, 2015 (UTC)

Been a few days since I posted for Nangka here, it's still a cat 3 but could become a 4 again before weakening as it approaches southern Japan. Ryan1000 20:09, July 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Ryan, I don't think that will happen. Nangka's reintensification was interrupted by an ERC, and is basically struggling to maintain its structure in general. Dvorak estimates have prompted the JTWC to downgrade the typhoon's winds to 80 knots (90 mph) (1-min) gusting to 100 knots (115 mph). Meanwhile, the JMA places higher wind estimates of 85 knots (100 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 945 mbar (hPa; 27.90 inHg). Despite low shear, dry air will prompt Nangka to continue weakening before hitting Japan near the Greater Osaka region, which both the JMA and JTWC forecast will happen in some 24-36 hours. Land interaction and hostile environmental conditions should then knock all the power out of the typhoon within the next five days. However, northern Honshu and Hokkaido may still receive some severe impacts from Nangka based on the JTWC forecast. Hopefully, everything goes well for Japan. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:20, July 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * That was two days ago, conditons have changed and Nangka is definitely not as well organized now as it once was. Like I said in the retirements section below, this'll probably be a repeat of Halong last year in terms of impacts to Japan. A little rain and damage, but nothing exceptional. Ryan1000 20:27, July 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nangka (2nd time)
Nangka has made two landfalls over Japan. Since then, it has really powered down due to land interaction, but the JTWC notes some convectional wrapping, as the storm is in the Sea of Japan. Winds are currently 35 knots (40 mph) (1 and 10-min) according to both the JTWC and JMA, with a pressure of 996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg), and gusts of 45 knots (50 mph) per the former. Despite good outflow ATM, increasing shear and land interaction with northern Honshu will very likely lead to Nangka's demise within a couple of days, as both the aforementioned agencies expect. Two fatalities have been reported from the typhoon so far, based on Wikipedia's 2015 PTS article, but I'm not sure if these are from Japan or the Marshall Islands. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:59, July 17, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nangka
Nangka is on its last legs. Whatever convection is left is slowly eroding away, and the system shouldn't last for more than a couple of days. The only reason this isn't extratopical yet is because there is a lack of sufficient baroclinicity. Winds are down to 30 knots (35 mph) (1-min) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph) per the JTWC. Also, the current JMA pressure for Nangka is 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg); no wind information is given from them. As the depression rounds the edge of STR, it should make another landfall over extreme northern Honshu and southeastern Hokkaido with less widespread impacts. Speaking of which, a third fatality has been reported from Nangka. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:18, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nangka
Nangka is no longer tropical, as it is basically a string of clouds. As it closes in on northern Honshu, it will meet its final end due to land interaction. However, this was quite the storm to track, and hopefully foreshadows more powerful harmless typhoons here in the WPAC. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

01C.HALOLA
Because Halola formed in the Central Pacific, any comments regarding the system should be posted here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:59, July 13, 2015 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
And as one dies, another one comes. Although not on their forecast path, the JMA is currently following a new TD with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg) and unknown winds just northeast of the Philippines. No word from the JTWC yet. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:23, July 19, 2015 (UTC)

note that Nangka absorbed another JMA TD earlier. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:04, July 19, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression
This depression dissipated near Korea yesterday. Odile, there have been a few scattered TD's the JMA has monitored this past week. The one you mentioned was already absorbed two days before the depression of this discussion formed. Moreover, while this second system was dying, the JMA briefly tracked a third depression over Guangdong. In short, the TD we are discussing is not the one that was eaten by Nangka. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:47, July 21, 2015 (UTC)

12W.NONAME
aaaand theres an tiny depression in the wpac now. could get absorbed to Halola in the next 2 days. the wpac is on 🔥🔥🔥 <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:04, July 23, 2015 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
this invest could become a typhoon in the next days. currently to the south of invest 91P <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:53, July 29, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Soudelor
uh oh... time bomb alert! has a good amount of convection around. this is going to be a long track and powerful one. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:26, July 30, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this is definitely one to watch out for, it's already forecast to become a cat 4 in the long run, and it could even become a 5. It'll probably turn more north in the late forecast period though. Ryan1000 17:32, July 30, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Normally I'm one of the first to complain about starting this section so early in the season; however, we've already had five storms, at least one of which has a decent chance of retirement. So, without further ado...


 * JMA
 * Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at, but enough for retirement? Nah.
 * Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, but a fish is a fish is a fish.
 * Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing.
 * Maysak: 65% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5.
 * Haishen: Wait, what?


 * PAGASA
 * All names: 0% - So far, no storm has caused either 1 billion PHP in damage, or 300 fatalities. As much as I disagree with PAGASA's arbitrary retirement standards (Amang was a respectable storm for them, and even a minor storm like Betty deserves a bit better than 0%), there's nothing I can do to change them.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:53, April 21, 2015 (UTC)

Eh...I'm bored. Been a while since I've been on, but until EPac and ATL start up in two weeks and a month, respectively, might as well post my calls thus far:

JMA names: PAGASA names: There you go. Ryan1000 20:44, May 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Mekkhala - 5% - Damage and deaths were very minimal, even by their standards.
 * Higos - 0% - Strongest February typhoon in 45 years, but it was still well away from land.
 * Bavi - 1% - Was just an afternoon rainshower for parts of micronesia; damage, if any, was less than minimal.
 * Maysak - 70% - It fortunately wasn't as bad as it could've been for the Philippines, but parts of Micronesia were slammed by this typhoon, and it was regarded as the worst ever in some areas. It has a pretty good shot of retirement based on what happened there alone. On top of all this, Maysak was also the strongest storm to exist in the West Pacific before April, and the 3rd earliest WPac category 5, after Ophelia in January 1958 and Mitang in March 2002.
 * Haishenot say anything here (end pun).
 * Noul - 5% - Preliminary estimate, but overall damage seems to have been minor in the islands, just like Maysak.
 * Dolphin - 10% - Damage on Guam was much less than I initially feared it would be, so it'll probably be coming back again in ~6 years.
 * Kujira - 6% - Caused some damage and deaths in Vietnam, but it won't be enough to kick it out.
 * Chan-Hom - 70% - Impacts in the Shanghai area totaled 944 million USD in damage and 1 death. While that's not as bad as it could've been, it was still pretty bad, and it has a good shot at retirement.
 * Linfa - 36% - Damage was somewhat extensive for a storm of it's intensity (218 million), though the Hong Kong area has seen worse, and it's definitely not a certainty. But it gets some credit.
 * Nangka - 15% - Like I said before, this was more or less a Halong repeat for Japan. Nothing exceptional, it'll probably be back in ~6 years.
 * Nothing meets their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP damage/300 deaths) thus far.

For the first time since I joined this wiki I will post retirement predictions for the WPAC

Here we go!

JMA ​  PAGASA
 * Mekkhala: 10%- 3 deaths and $7 million, but that won't warrant retirement
 * Higos: 0%- it was a strong storm, but didn't affect land
 * Bavi: 1%- didn't do much
 * Maysak: 60%-While the Phillipines avoided the worst of this unusually early cat 5 super typhoon, Micronesia was hit extremely hard. As Dylan said, This was a stronger Sudal (which was retired), except Sudal caused no deaths. 5 people were killed in this typhoon, so it has a good shot at retirement
 * Haishen: 0%- moving on to the next storm!
 * Noul: 10% The Phillipines avoided major devestation here! It was a cat 5 as it passed by the islands. Miraculously, damage has been minor so far! It did cause 2 deaths though :(
 * Dolphin: currently active

Nothing devestating enough to be retired so far. ​  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:38, May 17, 2015 (UTC)

​

JMA
 * Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at. Seriously.
 * Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, buuuuut, no landfall. See y'all in 6 freaking years! :3
 * Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing..so no. see you in 2021!
 * Maysak: 45% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5.
 * Haisheno comment...meh
 * Noul: 54% - Although Noul sort of helped Taiwan get water after a severe drought, Noul, known as Typhoon Dodong within the country, entered the Philippine area of Responsibility on May 7 and The Philippines raised signal 4, the highest warning level. From Wikipedia: "After Noul made a direct hit on northeastern Luzon at Santa Ana, Cagayan, at least two indirect deaths were attributed to Noul after they were electrocuted while preparing their houses in advance of the typhoon." That does not sound good. Noul was a slightly weaker Megi; remember, Megi was retired because the Hong Kong Observatory analysed that Megi was the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific Ocean since Tip in 1979 by attaining the 10-minute maximum sustained winds at 270 km/h (145 knots, 165 mph). However Megi claimed 69 lives; Noul killed only 2 (as I said earlier). I loved tracking Noul.

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  17:56, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dolphin: 30.5% - Strong typhoon, along with minor flooding in Guam, but it did pretty much nuttin.
 * Kujira: 0% - wtf, a fish = a fish. End of the line. But it did make landfall. YES BUT IT WAS ONLY LIKE A TORENTAL DOWNPOUR. OK? SHADDUP.
 * Chan-hom: 87.3% - This one has a shot at retirement; $1.46 billion in damage, 6 fatalities, Japan avoided major devastation here! Sadly, China was hit very hard by this storm. Due to the typhoon, more than 1 million people were evacuated in Zhejiang and nearly 30,000 ships were called back to port. 600 flights were reportedly canceled within the area.
 * Nankga: My iPod has new, black glass and it's way stronger than this. Would be surprised if it becomes a C5. UPDATE: Category 4? Wow. The WPac just made me eat my words.
 * Any particular reason why you copied my rationales up to Haishen? :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:19, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * I was very lazy, that is all. :P --Puffle Let's party HARD!  21:04, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

here are mine. will update with new storms.

※ 5% Mekkhala: even Mekkhala was weak. it caused some flooding.

※ 0% Higos: meh...

※ -1% Bavi: wait what?

※ 75% Maysak: Micronesia got hit reaallly badly. Sudal part 2

※ -100% Haishen: no comment. (end water puns)

※ 50% Noul: Noul literally evaporated as it missed the phillipines as a C5.

※ 15% Dolphin: altough was a record early storm. some minor flooding in Guam

※ 25% Kujira: some flooding

※ 100% Chan-hom: 1 BILLION in damages! thats enough for instant retirement

※ 45% Linfa: but caused the ferry MV Nirvana to capsize. damages are are not worse than expected

※ 35% Nangka: active

<font face="Comic Sans MS"> totally destructive  | get hyper! 04:09, June 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, storms can easily get away with $1 billion+ in damage without getting retired. In 2004, Typhoon Songda caused $9 billion in damage to Japan, and yet it wasn't retired. Granted, that is a rather extreme case, but still. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:32, July 29, 2015 (UTC)