Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 12)
Over 23W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:36, June 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * 38W. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:57, June 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS develops this by early July. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  21:38, June 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is the one we have to watch. GFS brings this to hurricane status. YE Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:01, June 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not only this but the tropical wave preceding it as well, when that wave emerge off Mexico we could see a rise in activity. Also MJO is propagating towards the CPac right now, and later into the EPac. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:26, June 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * Noted on TWO, Douglas likely to form by late this week into the weekend. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:51, June 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, we'll probably see Douglas out of this by Friday. Hopefully we'll see another explosively intensifying storm that'll pull an Amanda or Cristina on us, even though I really doubt that'll happen simply because it's a bit too early to forecast this thing. But, who knows what could happen with this storm? <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:34, June 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * No models are aggressive with it. It should form, and maybe affect land. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:24, June 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * As soon as I say that, models get aggressive and show this becoming a hurricane, and in some cases, a major. Some blast this into Jalisco, while tohers blast this machine into Cabo San Lucas or San Carlos. 12z GFS is very aggressive with this. 0/60 per the 5 day TWO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane
 * This tropical wave is in a interesting position right now. It is actually inland Mexico and should split into two, one in the BoC and one south of Mexico. Conditions should be very favorable ahead. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:13, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Inland MX? I thought it is just south of the GOT. Is it on here, or is it near the BOC? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:29, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * To be precise, the wave axis is inland MX. Convection is most likely temporary and judging by satellite imagery you can identify the inverted V indicator of a wave axis. The low level cloud movements (yellow) indicates where the surface low will form. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:04, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * This might get interesting. I hope that the wave splits and the southern portion develops into Douglas and the northern portion becomes Arthur in the BoC, even though I kinda doubt that'll happen. As for this AOI it might become another major hurricane and another epic storm to track, though I'll try not to root for it since it might affect Mexico but I still expect it to get strong! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:03, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * It could become a major. 18z GFS was much less aggressive though. We'll see what the next TWO says. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:35, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's been stuck at 10/60 for like a day. GFS super aggressive with this, showing doomsday after doomsday run after run. Sometimes I think the model is in fantasy land, and that we all have high hopes (see also: Rosa 12). YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:05, June 27, 2014 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Up to 40/80 and invest'd. GFS has shifted west back time and is now on par with the rest of the guidance, though it still has as a slight threat to Baja California Sur and bringing rains to CA in 11days. IMO it has an very very very very favorable environment, shear never goes above 12kt and RH never drops below 70%, and STS remain 29-30C through day 5 per the SHIPS. SHIPS brings it to 99 knts, GFS takes it to 968 mbar, and LGEM brings it to 74 knts. I can't wait to see what HWRF says. As it is moving WNW to NW parallel to the coast, yet another major is possible. Yes, another. 3 majors before July 15? Possible IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:19, June 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * This one looks real nice. I'd expect it to become Douglas by early next week, and I also expect it to become a major as well. Like Cristina and Amanda, it'll be out to sea, but if this becomes a cat 4, it'll probably be the earliest date for the season's 3rd category 4 (1992 holds the current record, with Frank becoming a 4 on July 17, this, if it explodes, will probably reach it on the 3rd/4th or so). Let's cross our fingers... Ryan1000 20:45, June 27, 2014 (UTC)


 * This invest is rather disorganized for now. However, development in the next few days is certainly possible, given the favorable conditions ahead of it. I predict a strong tropical storm at minimum from this system. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, June 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * Very complex situation here. GFS now shows two systems one from this and another from the system behind it. Both could threaten Baja. 96E could be strong. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:21, June 27, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/80. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:25, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict it'll become Douglas tomorrow. It's in amazing conditions and I wouldn't be surprised if future-Douglas became the 3rd major before July 15! This and the below AOI are ones to watch for development, this Pacific season is really going to be very active, unlike the struggling Atlantic! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:25, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * 60/80. GFS showing really complex shit and a interaction between this and the below systems. It looks like the other one is gonna be dominant. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:38, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I still think it'll become Douglas though. It's in favorable conditions along with the other AOI, but my prediction is that this AOI will become dominant over the below AOI. Who knows what could happen? I predict this invest will strengthen to a powerful (potentially major) Douglas and the AOI that's behind it will strengthen to a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane before this becomes dominant. Or it might be the other way around. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:58, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Agree this will be the dominant system of the two.Allanjeffs 19:00, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
Here we go! The NHC has determined enough convective organization is present to designate this cyclone Tropical Depression Four-E. Its current intensity is 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). The depression is forecast to accelerate under the influence of a guiding trough, but interaction with Invest 97E behind it may be a key factor in its movement. Intensitywise, its large size will prevent any major intensification, despite a favorable large-scale environment. The NHC forecast is slightly less aggressive than some forecast models, predicting a 50 knot (60 mph) tropical storm. Say hello to our D name! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:39, June 28, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because organization has seldom improved in the invest, the NHC has maintained Tropical Depression Four-E's intensity. As it nears a very strong ridge, it should begin to accelerate over the next few days. Low vertical wind shear, warm SST's, and a moist environment should favor additional intensification of the system. Due to the nature of Four-E, it should not get much stronger than 55 knots (65 mph) in the next three days, as the NHC expects. Dry air and cool SST's should prompt weakening afterwards. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:24, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't expect it to get too strong either, it has a slight chance of pulling off a quick stint of intensification to become a hurricane, but I wouldn't count on it. And 97E behind it won't become much, 4-E might even absorb it completely. Ryan1000 12:26, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * This thing won't intensify much since it's moving fast. I would not rule out a hurricane though. 97E won't be absorbed by 4E since 97E is moving slower than 4E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:54, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's still a depression on its 4th advisory. Come on! You're presented with favorable conditions yet you still can't strengthen! Must be its large size, its fast movement, or its proximity to 97E that's causing it. But still, I wouldn't rule out a hurricane due to the relatively favorable conditions. I predict this depression will peak as a 75 mph Hurricane Douglas. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:44, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * No, it's not a TD anymore. It was revised in the ATCF to make it a TS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:49, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I never check ATCF though :P, but hopefully the NHC declares it a tropical storm soon. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:55, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * 18z ATCF brings revises both 12z and 18z to 30 knts. Wtf. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:56, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Tropical Depression Four-E's cloud pattern has not become better organized at all, and convection is actually decreasing. TAFB and SAB estimates are at 2.5 and 2.0, not influencing any intensity changes per the NHC. Due to its proximity to a strong subtropical ridge, the depression should continue to accelerate until a mid- to upper-level shortwave moves into California, prompting a slow westward movement. Despite low shear and warm SST's, Four-E's large size and poor organization will prompt only gradual intensification, with dry air taking over in a couple of days. The forecast NHC peak has been lowered to 50 knots (60 mph). Steve and Ryan, I would be really hesitant to believe this depression will become a hurricane, given its unfortunate setbacks. The JTWC reports the same windspeed measures with gusts of 40 knots (45 mph), and expects a similar peak intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:27, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would not rule out a hurricane. Conditions looks decent for the next two or so days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:07, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Interestingly enough, this quite resemble Douglas 08. I wouldn't count too much on it blowing up, but you never know. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:17, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * it also resembles Nadine when it first formed. It has that CATL look to it. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:43, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Its big size is its worst enemy, it if it can bypass that it might strength. The worst enemy for the depression is the depression itself. YE you look like you are always more interested in the Epac XD right? I am the same in the Atlantic.Allanjeffs 22:58, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yes. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:03, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * NHC ATCF makes it 35 knts. So, Douglas is here. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:33, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Douglas
Yep, the NHC has now upgraded it. I still expect it to become a minimal hurricane at most. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   02:59, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Eh, it'll more likely become a mid-level to strong TS than a hurricane, NHC doesn't make it much stronger than it is now. Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, it's now forecast to go no higher than 40 kts, and with Elida not forecast to strengthen beyond where it is now, that just means we're only gonna get two weaklings out of this. Great. Next! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:11, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Yeah, it's advisory 8...and still 40 mph. Maybe it'll only peak as a weak TS I guess? Two weaklings in a row, c'mon EPac! Hopefully Fausto will become something strong! <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:13, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Douglas simply too large to deepen. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:10, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Should die from here, not expect to strength more as ingesting dry air now, the NHC says it might not even be a ts anymore. He might not last more than 2 days so far this has been the weakest storm of the season.Allanjeffs 20:44, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * How can it be ingesting dry air if there is no wind shear? No, the NHC did not say that :P ASCAT has the low bias and is all in all, shitty. I think this could intensify slightly. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:06, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Douglas still is attempting to hold on. Dvorak estimates remain the same, and cloud top temperatures have been slowly warming. Unfortunately, time is out for Douglas, as Allan mentioned. Its peak intensity of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg) might be it. It should continue moving northwestwards into a subtropical ridge weakness and then move westwards after becoming a remnant vortex. First epic fail of the 2014 PHS... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:26, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't expect it to do much more either. Elida might be more eventful though. Ryan1000 22:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, I guess YE was right on this one, Douglas deepened 3mb and is now 40kts. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  01:27, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Somehow someway it deepened. 40 knts per ATCF. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:29, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 16-17)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:57, June 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS shows this in the long-range. It could be Elida. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:30, June 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nevermind. This should just go by and many form in the CPHC AOR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:16, June 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * NVm, 10/20. GFS shows this developing and interacting with 96E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:22, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * I predict we'll see Elida from this by next week. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:27, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/30. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:39, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
This tropical wave has been designated Invest 97E, per Wunderground. Despite currently having disorganized showers and thunderstorms, I believe there could be a window for development as it moves west-northwestwards. Its chances for formation are currently at 30% for the next two days and 50% for the next five. The computer models are very split over this system. BAMM and BAMS steer it near Mexico, while BAMD, LBAR, CLIP, and IVCN show it getting dragged by Tropical Depression Four-E. My personal forecast for Invest 97E is a 35 to 40 knot (40 to 45 mph) weak tropical storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:45, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * No offense, but those models you mentioned are absolute garbage models, none of them are global and they are simple trajectory models based on parabolas. BAMM uses just 850 hPa to 400 hPa layers as guidance (which only accounts lower-mid level steering). I think this has a lot more potential than 4E as most models bring it close to land. A weakness in the ridge will form next week, and this could recurve and explode. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:29, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Agreed with HS. The BAMM family of models are 70s technology, they are shit. CLIPER is better, but not great, but with re-curving storms it's bad. Still, outflow from 4E should hinder development for now. Just like how Henriette 13 was hindered at first since it was close to Gil. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:28, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's still at 30% (50%) and still has a chance to become Elida. Proximity to 4-E may inhibit development though. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:46, June 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity has become more concentrated and organized in Invest 97E, but as Steve said, proximity to Four-E may hinder any development. Afterwards, conditions should be gradually favorable for some development. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, June 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * 50/60. Almost a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:25, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think it'll become a TD tomorrow assuming Douglas doesn't hinder it too much. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   03:01, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Expect this to be upgrade straight to ts Elida as there are ts winds base on the TWO the NHC post at 2am.Allanjeffs 08:18, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Btw expect this to not strength a lot, expect a peak at most of 50mph.Allanjeffs 08:22, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just so you know, this thing already has officially 50mph winds, 60mph based on ASCAT and 65mph based on ADT. Just having trouble closing circulation, open to the NW due to anticyclone aloft. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  08:35, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Elida
It's been upgraded. It is expected to peak at where it is now, but I expect it to reach 60-65 mph before dying. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:09, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * For the 5th time in history, there has been 5 EPAC storms pre-July. Other years were 1992, 1990, 1984, and 1985. Imagine if 90E developed in early May. 4 EPAc storms in June ties for 2nd most, behind 1985 and tied with 1990. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:13, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Pretty active start, but unlike Cristina and Amanda, Douglas and Elida won't become hurricanes, or much stronger than they are now. Btw, why has no one updated the active storms header yet? :/ Ryan1000 20:33, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would not rule out a hurricane for Elida once shear decreases. Douglas should clear out dry air. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:40, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Not know how to do it, I am waiting for Genevieve, I love that name.Allanjeffs 20:41, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * I am in complete agreement with YE on this one, not only could it become a strong hurricane, but I believe it could have great impact on Mexico as well. I think it should peak as a solid 90kt hurricane. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't think it'll get that deep, at least within the next 3-5 days. I'd say anywhere from 55-80 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:52, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Well, the close proximity it'll have to Mexico is what worries me about Elida the most. The circulation itself will probably remain offshore, but it'll still bring some flooding and mudslides to parts of the coast. As for intensity...NHC currently doesn't expect one, and I'm not buying that it'll become a (strong) one just yet, but if it does, make it well out to sea while it's doing so. Ryan1000 22:28, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Its not being sheared by Douglas is being sheared by something in the gulf, I might say that Elida might strength to 65mph but nothing more, because once shear stop dry air will come to affect herAllanjeffs 00:18, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * How can you have dry air be a negative factor without moderate wind shear? Stable/cool air, maybe, but not dry air :P Even then, Douglas is gonna clear all that up. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:52, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * You really want this to strength. I usually don't for the epac and now that the Atlantic have a shot.i am not paying many attention to the Epac,but we will see.Allanjeffs 01:20, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't really want it to strengthen, and it won't for the next day or so, just asking a question :P YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:28, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Elida has the same pressure as Douglas, but at 45 knots (50 mph) already. I think it will struggle to intensify due to strong northwesterly shear. After erratically moving offshore of Mexico, Elida should be dragged westwards by a subtropical wave. Allan, just wait a few more days for the shear to relax. Elida could easily become a hurricane 5-7 days for now. Also, the Atlantic could easily get real boring this year due to the oncoming El Nino. I am rather biased towards the WPAC right now; they have not seen anything in two weeks. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:31, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Regarding the WPAC, the GFS shows two very powerful system there this weekend. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:33, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 23)
New wave off Africa, now 48W - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:32, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Could possibly become Fausto. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:13, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Right S of GoT right now, in the EPac. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:32, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 26)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:31, June 28, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 30)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:32, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

July
Welcome to July in the Eastern Pacific! As you can see, we have been off to an extremely active start. For the fifth time in history, five tropical storms formed before July 1, with a record two becoming Category 4 hurricanes and Elida becoming the earliest fifth storm in a season since Celia '92 (right, YE?) ! Now that's quite a way to begin the season! And I only see July becoming more active. My predictions - 8 depressions, 6 named storms, 5 hurricanes (counting a personal forecast for Elida), and 3 major hurricanes, with an ACE of ~55 (give or take 15). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:20, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * All - 0%

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

I agree with Dylan. It's way too early for this section, but I'm still gonna post mine anyways:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 15:15, June 30, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.
 * Douglas: 0% - Fishie.
 * Elida: ? - Still active but might bring impacts to southern Mexico.


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's mine (because I want to get a head start (Sorry, Dylan)): (i'll remove the underline when we're further in the season)
 * Amanda: 0%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land.
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- currently active
 * leeboy100 (talk) 17:21, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

Eh, we don't have much right now, but I can't resist retirement predictions, they're fun as hell:


 * Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic.
 * Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement.
 * Douglas - 0% - ^^
 * Elida - ?? - Might cause impacts in Mexico.

Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Alright, here are mine as of June 30:
 * Amanda — <1% Nope.
 * Boris — ≤1% Nope.
 * Cristina — <1% Nope.
 * Douglas — <1% Nope.
 * Elida — ≤1% Probably nope.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC.


 * 1) Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel.
 * 2) Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub.
 * 3) Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe.
 * 4) Douglas - TBA - Still Active
 * 5) Elida - TBA - STill Active

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC)