Forum:2011 Pacific typhoon season

Welcome
I don't know if anyone will be here for now, but here's a fine start to the Pacific typhoon season! Ryan1000 22:17, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

July
Is here, but the activty isn't. Ryan1000 01:15, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 8 (Goring)
And after a period of silence, here comes TD 8 in the WPac. It hasn't been numbered 08W yet, but It's PAGASA name is Goring, and If it becomes named by the JMA, it will be named Ma-on, last used in 2004. Ryan1000 19:32, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Yipee! I've been waiting for activity! Now we have some! Time to chat away... Andrew444 12:53, July 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ah, I don't think this thing has much of a chance, its already made its way into China, and (Goring) will die away later today, likely. I personally don't see any retirees as of yet; Aere may have killed lots of people and caused lots of damage, but having a PAGASA name retired doesn't mean its JMA name will be, and although Sarika caused 248 million in damage and killed 29, China has seen worse than her, and so have the Philipines for Aere. The all-time record for retirees in the WPac was 5, in 2006. We had Chanchu, which kicked the living sh!t out of China with over 260 deaths and 680 million in damage. Ewiniar, though not retired, caused 1.5 billion in damage and killed over 100 people due to devastating flooding in South Korea. Bilis was a weak TS that killed over 800 and caused around 4.4 billion in damage due to devastating flooding in Taiwan and mainland China. Then, once we thought it was over, Saomai came calling. Saomai hit China as a 150 mph monster, China's strongest landfaling typhoon in history, and with 2.5 billion in damage and 458 deaths, was considered the worst typhoon to hit China in 50 years. The parade of destructive storms in 2006 raged on with Shanshan, a powerful category 4 storm that struck Japan as a weakening category one, causing 11 deaths and 2.5 billion in damage. Then, Xangsane came raging towards the Philippines. Xangsane exploded when it came ashore in the Philippines as a 145 mph monster, killing hundreds in Manila, the capital of the Philippines, and the worst typhoon to hit the city in 11 years. It slowed down into a category 2 before making landfall in Vietnam and killed 71 people there. Then, once the Philippines thought it was all over, Cimaron came calling. It was the strongest landfall of the season, devastating Luzon as a 160 mph monster, and killing several people in addition to causing widespread destruction. Just as Cimaron was dissipating, Chebi, a 135 mph typhoon raged into the Philipines, causing further destruction and several fatalities just after Cimaron raged ashore. As the season appeared to be closing up, the mightiest storm of worldwide 2006 was building up in the WPac. On November 25, tropical storm Durian formed in the Philippine Sea. It slowly intensified but became a very large and powerful storm as it raced towards the Philipines. The storm crashed into the country with winds of 155 mph, causing more than 13.5 billion dollars in damage and killing 1,500. It was one of the worst typhoons ever known to strike the country. After Durian, the final storm of the parade of destructive landfalls was Utor. It struck the southern Philippines as a minimal major typhoon with winds of 115 mph. It caused signifigantly lower damage than the other storms of the season due to it's smaller size, quick movement, and lack of buildup in the area it affected.


 * At the end of 2006, Chanchu, Bilis, Saomai, Xangsane, and Durian were all retired. The combined storms in 2006 killed nearly 2,700 people and caused roughly 35.8 billion in damage. It goes to show the WPac can be much worse than where it has been now in 2011. Ryan1000 16:17, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

And after such a (short) life, (Goring) is down and out. Now we're slowly beginning to sleep until mid-late August. I guess we have a chance of some more activity, but nothing is expected over the next two days. Ryan1000 22:23, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08W
And as soon as (Goring) dissipated, we have a new one out there. This one is already numbered 08W, and unlike (Goring), this one has a pretty good chance to become Ma-on as it heads west. It's currently forecast to become a category 1 storm, and it's future from there is uncertain. Ryan1000 17:53, July 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm (JMA/JTWC) Ma-on
Both JMA and JTWC now have this as a TS. The reason I'm here is because I just saw the model runs, and this storm is of epic proportions. ECMWF has this at probably C4-C5 hitting Kyushu. GFS has this curving further east, and so does the Canadian. What I'm trying to say is, this could be one of the most intense hurricanes to hit Japan for a long time. This is dangerous, and I think they should be ready for at least a C3 typhoon. Darren 23 Edits 16:48, July 12, 2011 (UTC)

Heh, strangely enough, the last Ma-On of 2004 was a strong category 2 storm that sucker-punched Tokyo real good, but Japan doesn't often see storms of epic proportions. The mightiest typhoon in Japanese history was Super Typhoon Vera of 1959. That storm blasted southern Japan as a 160 mph monster super typhoon, killing over 5,000 and causing over 260 million dollars in damages. Japan was lucky that the ridge of high pressure was over central Japan at the time; if it was further out to sea, Tokyo could have been torn apart from that monster storm. The last category 4 landfall in Japan was Super Typhoon Jean of 1965, if I remember correctly, it hit them as a 150 mph storm, but the impacts weren't as severe as from Vera. Either way, this storm needs to be watched out for. BTW, I de-archived Sarika and Meari, they weren't that long of archives, and now I put them in the April-June archive. Ryan1000 17:00, July 12, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Well, although we have no storms active out there, we have had a few storms and some possible retirement canidates. Anyone have any calls here? Here's mine:


 * Aere - 30% - It killed more than 40 people in the Philipines and caused several million dollars in damage. If it's PAGASA name, Bebeng, became retired, Aere itself also has a chance as well.


 * Songda - 10% - A very rare May category 5, but fortunately it didn't cause signifigant damage on land.


 * Sarika - 30% - Well, Sarika did cause about a quarter of a billion dollars in damage and 25 deaths, so although it was the weakest storm thus far, it was the most damaging storm thus far as well with a moderate death toll, so it certainly has a chance.


 * Haima - 5% - It was minor, and caused no more impact than Songda, in general.


 * Meari - 5% - It was feared to be stronger, but it never caused signifigant damage on land.

That's what I'll say so far. Ryan1000 23:06, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

Mine:

JMA: 

Aere - 80% - DEVESTATED a whole country, left millions of dollars in it's path, got its PAGASA name removed, no way this monster is staying, he'd have to pull a Karl not to be removed.

Songda - 4% - Very notable, but little damage.

Sarika - 95% - EXTREMELY damaging, was worse than Aere, and left lots of damage to China. I don't think Sarika has a chance of staying at all.

Haima - 24% - Added on to Sarika, but not much.

Meari - 0% - OOOH...FISHIE!

PAGASA: 

Amang - 0% - What did this do again?

(Bebeng already removed)

Chedeng - 1% - See Amang's section.

Dodong - 4% - The chances aren't very good, because more damage happened in China.

Egay - 1% - See Chedeng and Amang's sections.

Falcon - 0% - Don't you love fishies?

Goring - 1% - Ditto.

Andrew444 13:06, July 10, 2011 (UTC)