Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season/October

AOI: South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
0/20. If anybody cares, Ramon is likely from this one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:17, September 29, 2017 (UTC)

The GFS has been very bullish with this one. The 18Z GFS run made this a 920 mb monster off South Mexico, and then took it into Baja in 222 hrs as a hurricane. The 00Z run showed a completely different track, showing a 960 mb hurricane make landfall on the Tehuantepec coast of Mexico. This could be one storm to watch out for. 182.58.52.164 04:42, September 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * The 06Z GFS now shows this SE of Manzanillo on day 9, with a track eerily reminiscent of the infamous Hurricane Patricia of 2015, while the ECMWF moves this out to sea where it dissipates on day 8. Hoping the ECMWF's solution plays out. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:35, September 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope it goes out to sea and doesn't follow a track towards Mexico. Anyway, it's up to 0/50 and Ramon is looking likely to form here. This could really be something to watch out for. I've thought of the name "Ramon" as an somewhat ominous storm name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:04, October 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * 10/60. I'm kinda sure this is Ramon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:21, October 2, 2017 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Invested and now at 20/70. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:43, October 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * 48 hours is 40%, but 5 days has dropped to 60%. This drop in 5-day percentage may mean that environmental conditions could worsen and affect development in the long run (or any future land interaction could affect it instead). It doesn't directly mention that in the TWO though. If it becomes Ramon, I'm afraid that it might end up weak. I hope for a hurricane though as long as it steers clear of land. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:46, October 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 50/70. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:07, October 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Going rapidly now as it goes up to 70/80. Ramon should be coming by the next day. Hi!-68.106.0.77 00:07, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 90/90, here comes Ramon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 05:18, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ramon
He's here. - Garfield

Based on the recent ASCAT pass, winds for the initial advisory have been estimated at 40 knots (45 mph) with an estimated central pressure of  1002 mbar (29.59 inches of Hg). Strong easterly shear is expected to affect Ramon, and no strenghtening is expected. Alternatively, it could head into Mexico and dissipate. This could fail big time, unless it survives the next 5 days, when the conditions are expected to be better, as shown by the HWRF. GFS and ECMWF show dissipation due to shear in ~36 hours. 182.58.66.191 12:23, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * It'll stay a TS for five days without intensifying to a hurricane according to forecast. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:25, October 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Wind shear should inhibit development over the next 5 days and only very slight strengthening is forecast as a result. Also, a tropical storm watch has been issued for parts of southern Mexico. Hopefully it reaches at least 60 mph as it's moving away from land, and "Ramon" is such an ominous name for a hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:42, October 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nvm, it is getting less organized. Forecast now has Ramon dissipating by Friday. TD 16 in the Atlantic is our main focus anyway. What a waste of a name. 😑 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:55, October 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ramon
It weakened to a TD, 30 kn/1004 mbar. Forecast now shows Ramon dissipating by the next day. *facepalm* Oh what a disgraceful failure. Hi!-68.106.0.77 02:59, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * *ABSOLUTE FACEPALM* This is a failure of epic proportions. I guess Ramon wants to join his siblings Jova '17, Tina '16, Rick '15, Failicia '15, Fausto '14, Karina '08, Pilar '87, and more in the Eastern Pacific Hall of Shame. Ramon, congrats, you suck so much that everyone who sees you is doing this. Perform better in 2023 please! 🤦‍ ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:13, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Should be dissipated on the next advisory. CIMSS has stopped issuing ADT estimates. 182.58.32.150 08:04, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Ramon
What a fail. 5th advisory was the last one. Not expected to regenerate. 182.58.32.150 09:36, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Ikr, this was an absolute failure. Hope Ramon can try again in 2023. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:16, October 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * Ikr, this was an absolute failure. Hope Ramon can try again in 2023. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:16, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * By all means of getting to Z...-- Isaac829  E-Mail   20:17, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * PULL AN OTIS PLEASE! 128.240.225.60 00:23, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Well, damn. ~ KN2731  {talk}  11:05, October 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Is there a reason why this season has been so inactive compared to the past few years? It seems like the Atlantic is the only basin allowed to have fun this year, lol. Jdcomix (talk) 14:02, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Lol. The Atlantic is that active compared to other basins. Our main focus is Nate, which is currently threatening Louisiana and other states. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:44, October 7, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: 600 Miles South of Baja
0/20, upper-level winds will limit development until later on. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:48, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

I find it odd that NHC marked this with the lack of model support. We'll just have to see what happens. - Garfield


 * Up to 10/20. I hope it forms, as it's away from land. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:51, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 30/50. GFS forecasts another fail. EMCWF doesn't develop it. 182.58.42.166 15:17, October 13, 2017 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invested and 50/60. This better not be another fail. Future-Selma shall try her best. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:21, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

This WILL be a fail. Shear is forecast to strike on Monday. I don't think this will be anything great. --182.58.98.184 02:54, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

And suddenly its at 70/80. 182.58.81.105 08:24, October 14, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 80/80. I hope it only becomes a TD then. We don't need anymore names thrown down the trash. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:53, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * And I don't want any more fails because I hate them. Hi!-68.106.0.77 15:55, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/70. Another fail? 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:12, October 15, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 60/60. Unless it suddenly organizes right now, it's a bust... Thankfully it doesn't appear that it is going to steal a name anymore. I guess Selma comes later :( ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:31, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * 50/50, but only a small increase in organization will result in a TD. I still hope it tries its best, but doesn't steal a name. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:57, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30. Our next TC may have to wait. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:03, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: 1600 Miles East-Southeast of Hawaii
10/10, I doubt it's going to become much due to unfavorable upper-level winds. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:34, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 0/0, and upper-level winds and dry air will prevent any development from happening. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:04, October 17, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Near Central America
20/40. Maybe our long-awaited Selma could come out of this system. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:12, October 25, 2017 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and jumped to 40/60. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:32, October 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * Up to 60/70. This will be Selma. Hi!-68.106.0.77 21:25, October 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * 70/70. It could be a TD tomorrow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  23:45, October 26, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Selma
We literally have Selma right now. Skipped TD status, ahahaha! However don't laugh, this is coming right at el Salvador and will likely dissipate very quickly. Forecast to remain as a TS. Oooo! blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 09:47, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Peak forecast is 50mph (80.4km/h). (Anyway, if only future Philippe in the Atlantic was named "Patty" instead...)   blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 09:49, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * This may be the 2nd storm on record to directly male landfall in El Salvador, next to TS Andres back in '97. Anyway, Selma is expected to remain as a TS. Hope that the precipitation isn't that heavy. (BTW Rara, Patty is actually included in next year's Atlantic name list.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:38, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * 93L is just north-east of Selma. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, October 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * Doesn't appear that this'll be much different from Andres back in 1997, though Andres struck in early June and this is in late October. The last October storm to hit Central America from the EPac was TS Simone in 1968, which briefly hit Guatemala as a TS. Ryan1000 19:44, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Adv. 3: 40 mph/1005 mbars. Unlike Andres (which skirted along the southern Mexico and Guatemala coasts before El Salvador landfall), this is taking a straight-line track into El Salvador. Hopefully Selma is not a bad flood disaster, as even weak systems can be disastrous (23W of this year's WPac season being a good example, as well as Nate's formative stages in Central America). It seems like the EPac keeps feeding us weak failures... but Selma isn't an epic fail though due to it impacting Central America. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:50, October 27, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Selma
Weakened into a TD, 35 mph/1006 mbar. Hi!-68.106.0.77 17:11, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Selma
Degenerated into a remnant low as torrential rains continue over Central America. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:36, October 28, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: West of Selma
0/20 as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:18, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I have a feeling that this will be a fishspinning Todd. Hopefully it's stronger than the previous 3 weak fails (Pilar to Selma) as long as it avoids land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  20:52, October 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/10. GFS brings it near Cabo as a TS.--182.58.32.248 05:52, October 28, 2017 (UTC)
 * Todd will have to wait, if it even comes this year. Dropped off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  04:40, October 29, 2017 (UTC)
 * The Pacific is quiet again, after the two fails set by Ramon and Selma. The Pacific this year still has not reached about 100 units on the ACE, maybe because of the disgraceful failures like Adrian, Calvin, Greg, Jova, Pilar, Ramon, and Selma. Hi!-68.106.0.77 07:21, October 29, 2017 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
New system south of Guatemala has already been invested. At 10/20, but I don't see much coming out of this. Maybe could have a slight chance at becoming Todd though. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  03:28, October 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * And off the TWO it goes...  Happy Halloween!-68.106.0.77 00:43, October 31, 2017 (UTC) 


 * * Sigh* C'mon Todd. We're waiting for you... will you decide to form this year, or no? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Sp🎃🎃k Me  Haun👻 Me  💀  01:54, October 31, 2017 (UTC)