Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:Azores
This thing is still there.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Now invested.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wonder why they invested it prior to it being on the TWO. Nonetheless, this storm would be absolutely amazing to have develop. We could add it to the list of the odd things that have happened in 2011. Yqt1001 12:34, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Deactivated. Yqt1001 19:14, October 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it would count as a subtropical storm or something better. Now we just have to wait for 2012 and hope for another one to form there.10'Q.'INVEST 02:03, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cuba
Well, after research, the convective activity in the Caribbean is a tail end of a front that is expected by most models to create a suptropical storm near Florida in 3-5 days. It still has to cross Cuba, however once it completes the crossing we should have firm details about where it will form and the track it takes. HPC said that the best analog to this AOI is a 1974 subtropical storm. Worth watching. Also worth noting that many models show one of the strongest MJO pulses ever recorded coming into the Atlantic this month. With the right conditions that might make my prediction for a 190mph storm not so crazy after all (but still really unlikely :P ).Yqt1001 21:32, October 4, 2011 (UTC)

I knew this thing was going to develop in the future, and an AOI is only the precursor to this thing. October hurricanes are very pesky and often hit us close to home here. I wouldn't be surprised if it does develop, but we're barely getting started here. Ryan1000 08:31, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

If this develops it goes either into the eastern GoM and up to the panhandle or it goes east of Florida or it goes straight up into Florida. --88.102.101.245 07:59, October 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * It looks to be crossing Cuba, and is likely to stall over the Bahamas until the conditions are favourable for it to develop. Yqt1001 19:56, October 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now on the TWO. 20% as of 8 AM EDT. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:48, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * This AOI is forecast to head north or northwest for the next few days, but signifigant development is not anticipated. I would expect a TS, but not a very strong one. Impacts from this storm, if any, will likely be minor to moderate, but nothing severe. I think this could become Rina, but MJO is still holding on in EPac for some time, and it will until the next week or two. Ryan1000 13:04, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * 30% now. Likely to be invested soon. Yqt1001 17:57, October 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still fairly disorganized Hurricane Kiewii 19:26, October 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's slowly organizing, but it's rather broad in structure, and overall development of this area of disturbed weather, if any at all, will be slow to occur. There is a ULL in the GOM that will keep it broad for the next few days, but it is expected to form into many smaller areas of low pressure, one over the Bahamas, one near southern Florida, and the ULL is expected to bury down to the surface in the future, which means we could get two or even three different storms from this. However, even if we get only one, it won't be that strong. Ryan1000 22:18, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

The circle is smaller now. However it's looking more likely that we could have 2 systems developing from this. The one on the west side of Florida (which would be first) and then one on the east side. Yqt1001 14:05, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

Still at 30%, and the database is not actually working right now.10'Q.'INVEST 17:28, October 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * Seems like they found the LLCC now, still at 30%.10'Q.'INVEST 18:01, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Finally an invest. Now we can get the models to be more aware of this thing. But it'll likely stay at 30% until 93L crosses Florida and emerges in the Eastern Gulf. Yqt1001 18:33, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * What looks to be a well defined center on radar as 93L is a few hours out to landfall... Yqt1001 22:12, October 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * As long 93L emerges in the gulf, it has a chance of development. 10'Q.'INVEST 01:08, October 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * I honestly think that it is Subtropical Storm Rina right now. It has atleast half of a well defined LLC (a buoy has yet to confirm that its closed), it has a well defined center and it even has organized deep convection, which isn't even a requirement for a subtropical cyclone. It's a partial warm core system so it won't be Tropical Storm Rina if it get's upgraded. ATCF jsut updated 93L's file to it being a tropical low rather than subtropical so it could be Tropical Storm Rina after all. Yqt1001 01:25, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Even if it does briefly become a TS, it won't make a huge difference IMO. This storm looks like a repeat of Tammy from 2005. A large, broad storm forming close to Florida and causing lots of inland flooding. I think this could be a pretty wet storm from the southeast to the northeast, but it has to become Rina now if it ever will. It is just about to cross Florida and head inland, and it still only has a 30% chance of developing in the next two days. It'll cross Florida before that, so that's not a very high chance of seeing a named storm... Ryan1000 01:34, October 10, 2011 (UTC)

Instead of Rina, we get a special TWO..which says that only a bit more organization with 93L and we would've had Rina. Looks like it is too late for Rina. It's rather funny, because the definition of subtropical cyclone has no mention of requiring organized convection. Yqt1001 03:25, October 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * 93L has made landfall. Yqt1001 05:13, October 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Made landfall at NASA Kennedy Space Center.. down to 0%. Hurricane Kiewii 17:52, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * My gut feeling is that this was a subtropical/tropical storm and should have been Rina. For various reasons, some logistical, some political, NHC chose not to initiate advisories. It almost reminds me of the undesignated subtropical/tropical storm that hit South Carolina in 2008. It organized so close to the coast and was so short lived that NHC thought it wasn't worth the trouble. Existing, non-tropical gale warnings and high surf advisories, etc., adequately handled storm-related threats. This ignores the fact that it was in fact a system that meritted designation and naming. The 2008 storm, "Tropical Storm Twelve" in my database, wasn't even upgraded in post analysis so it wouldn't surprise me if this one isn't either; NHC is uncomfortable admitting to this sort of thing. But yes, this one should've been named. This pic shows the well-defined circulation center. -- SkyFury 22:18, October 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * I agree 100% with you skyfurry this was a subtropical o tropical storm but maybe to don´t make feel people nervous they didn´t put a name even if it is unfair of their part Allanjeffs 23:00, October 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure. I'm not really convinced that this low was Rina. I wouldn't be surprised if it is upgraded to a depression in post-season, but I don't think this low was Rina, not even briefly. Still, October is not over yet, and the threat is not over either. However, it's safe to say that for now, the coast is clear in the Atlantic for the next 48 hours(BTW, I put Philippe in the September archive). Now my attention turns to Jova, I guess... Ryan1000 02:04, October 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Since the NHC has been put under tons of pressure from pretty much everywhere over 93L, someone got an email reply about it and why they did not name 93L (even though it did meet the definitions of a sub/tropical cyclone, which they did admit). Scroll down to comment #212 (a post made by Levi32). Whether or not you believe him that James actually sent it, you don't have too, but it sounds pretty reasonable. Pretty much, in one sentence, it was a nameable storm for 1 hour and it was so close to land that there was no reason to name it. Also sounds like if they find evidence it was a nameable storm before there was solid proof of it, they might add it to the post season. Yqt1001 23:39, October 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * Levi is an excellent forecaster in my opinion ireally like his tibits and i was just gonna publish that message he recieved and I knew this system should have been name if so we would have just need 4 name to finish the list we may get until vince but i really want to end it Allanjeffs 02:10, October 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * I still don't think there was a tropical storm out of this. I wil buy that it could have been a depression briefly, but 93L never had more than a 30% chance of development in it's entire life, and a storm like that won't go straight to a TS in post-season IMO. Ryan1000 03:19, October 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * there is a problem Ryan in your analisis is that 93l already have the winds of a tropical storm so it would be upgraded to a sub tropical or tropical storm if they upgrade it at the end Allanjeffs 03:29, October 12, 2011 (UTC)
 * The problem with 93L was it never got that(required) closed low-level circulation while NHC was tracking it. If it developed that closed circulation before it crossed Florida, it would have been named, but that didn't happen Allan. Dolly of 2008 had TS force winds for several days as it was crossing the Caribbean before it developed a closed low level circulation on July 20. 93L may have had TS force winds, but that's not enough to upgrade it to Rina. If NHC finds it had it's circulation beforehand, it would become Rina, but I personally don't think that's likely. Even so, ATL has silenced down a bit now that development is not expected in the next two days. Ryan1000 10:52, October 12, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Remnants of 12-E
10%.10'Q.'INVEST 12:08, October 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * Says 0% here... finally some activity in the Atlantic. Hurricane Kiewii 12:31, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * This storm will produce a ton of rainfall over Guatemala and southern Mexico, but it's not going to be moving over the Caribbean sea anytime soon. It might cause flooding until it dies as it heads further west or stays stationary, but I don't really think this storm will pass over the CS and explode into a powerful storm. Ryan1000 19:49, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * 10% now. This will probably merge into any MJO development in the Carb when it comes into the Atlantic in a few days. This will likely be the huge MJO storm that every one has been predicting for a few weeks now. Yqt1001 20:22, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm worried more about the continous flooding that's going to be happening in Guatemala and Mexico more than development of this system, since it seems unlikely. Yqt, just because this thing looks like it's going to be a big Caribbean storm doesn't mean it will be. The entire system, or almost the entire system, is over land as we speak. It will not be moving much at all for the next several days. This storm is not in the same position as other monstorous storms that we have seen in the past, which were completely over the rich warm water of the Caribbean. I know we're all fearing a bad storm will come this October, but I don't know if we really will have one, and in the position this storm is in, this won't be the one we're fearing. For all we know, Irene might have been the chosen one for the entire season... Ryan1000 22:17, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I kinda meant this would be one of the first storms to come from the pattern we are heading into that favours insane activity in the Caribbean. I don't think this will become a hurricane, but I think it will likely develop as it slowly heads northeastward. Yqt1001 23:09, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * In EPac this is near 0% and Irwin is still alive there. In the meantime, before it (could) develop here, lots of flooding will be accosiated with this one in Central America and southern Mexico, so the potentially greatest threat from this AOI is occuring as we speak from flooding in CA. Ryan1000 02:08, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 10%10'Q.'INVEST 02:28, October 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * now 20% Allanjeffs 06:11, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Heading Northwest. It might move back over land over the next few days, but development is not iminent. Ryan1000 10:29, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 20%. Little time to develop.10'Q.'INVEST 23:59, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * It is a rather broad and ragged storm, and it will be heading over the Yucatan peninsula again tomorrow or Sunday, but unless this thing explodes right now, this definitely won't be Rina. October's half over and since Philippe and Ophelia dissipated, the Atlantic has gone almost completely silent. Irwin's still hanging in the EPac, and it isn't expected to dissipate for the next several days either. I knew Irwin was like EPac's Philippe. Ryan1000 00:44, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Regardless of development, it'll still cause flash-flooding in Jamaica, the Yucatan, Cuba, and Central America. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:31, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
This is actually 95L. Yqt1001 16:48, October 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * NOW it is invested... It was an AOI for the last several days. It looks like it may have a slight chance of becoming Rina before moving inland by tomorrow. Ryan1000 21:43, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10% because the invest center is overland. There are 3 centers associated with this system, and the invest center wasn't likely to develop in the first place. Yqt1001 23:37, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Although this invest may not become Rina, we also have an extratropical storm south of the Azores that may be taking on subtropical/tropical charicteristics, and development of that storm, though unlikely, isn't out of the question. Ryan1000 00:15, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, it's up to 50% now. There's the potential we could see Rina from this storm now, but it's right next to the Yucatan and will move over there later today before recurving back to southern Florida. It's starting to lose it's chances now though. Ryan1000 11:48, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I did say that they were following the wrong low here. Back when this mess formed, there were 3 lows: one over Central America (which is now in the EPac), one in the Gulf of Honduras (which is what the NHC originally had this invest centered on) and a little tiny secondary low down just off the coast of Nicaragua. I believe that the small little low over Nicaragua is starting to become the primary low as it heads northwards and it is now just off the coast of the Yucatan. Yqt1001 14:22, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Either way, the models don't do much with this one. It's possible it could become Rina, but most of the models keep it either briefly being a depression or a 40-45 mph storm. My feeling is 95L missed it's chance already, but we'll see. Ryan1000 15:52, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

2PM TWO as well as a recent ASCAT pass puts the center near 20.5N 86.7W, quite a bit farther east, and might be able to avoid the Yucatan all together. Otherwise, I'd say that this has a way higher chance of developing now because of the new primary center. Yqt1001 17:40, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

Even if it does become Rina, it most likely won't get past 40-45 mph due to it's proxmitity to the shear from that nearby cold front. It will head northeastward by later today or tomorrow/Tuesday and hit southern Florida by then, but this thing won't be anything serious for them as far as i'm concerned. Ryan1000 19:07, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

Still at 50%.10'Q.'INVEST 00:26, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Man, this is moving pretty fast.10'Q.'INVEST 00:59, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

95L just doesn't want to develop... This is what most of the storms this year have done. There weak, pathetic, whimpy storms that have never realized their potential. We have had 16 storms this year, but only Irene and Katia haven't struggled to intensify in their lives. Ophelia died out into a remnant low before it ever did get it's act together, and hurricanes Maria and Philippe became minimal hurricanes, but much later than they otherwise should have. This invest has been at 20% for the last 3-4 days and it should have been Rina by at least yesterday. October is more than half over and we haven't had a single depression since Philippe dissipated. Perhaps we won't have such a bad late season after all. That's good for us, but it's also very surprising since this isn't El Nino stuff we're looking at. Ryan1000 01:45, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Even Katia struggled to intensify this year, being downgraded to a tropical storm twice before finally reaching peak intensity. I still think this will develop, but won't become a powerful storm either. Maybe we'll have a 2005 November and December, who knows. 99.236.60.25 01:56, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * No two seasons are exactly alike though; we can't use 2005 or 2001 ect as excuses to this year because they had different atmospheric conditions at different times. The fingerprint of every season is unique, and although we could have a destructive late-season storm like Paloma or Michelle, the odds are not exactly in favor of it, and given the conditions we're in now in ATL, it's unlikely we will get anything past Rina or Sean. 95L may develop into Rina, but it's under heavy shear and it may have already missed it's chance if anything else. 94L is only at 10% and it will be under heavy shear as well as it heads westward. I think it's fair to say this season is starting to wrap up. Ryan1000 02:04, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2011 is an odd year, so odd that it is very foolish to call it over now. I'm not sure why there has been a shut down in October, and I think it is too late for us to get to Alpha this year. Tammy or Vince still seems likely though. Also remember that nature is impossible to predict, for all we know we could have a 5 storm November. I personally wouldn't say anything about what will happen for the rest of this year until the last minute of December 31st. Yqt1001 03:20, October 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * 60% now if this develop it will be upgrade straight to ts Rina because it already has winds of ts. Allanjeffs 05:54, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes! And now we need to wait for confirmation.10'Q.'INVEST 12:11, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, there is little confirmation of a closed surface circulation, we'll have to wait for recon/ASCAT to reveal that. It sure looks like a tropical storm though. Yqt1001 12:18, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 40%, looks to be starting to loose its chance. Recon is in there, so if it doesn't get upgraded at 5pm, it never will. Could be the second very close attempt at Rina. I would still be shocked if we don't get her though. Yqt1001 19:08, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

So much for the talk of that. It's now only at 30% and no closed circulation was found by the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Upper-level conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next several days, so I actually wouldn't be surprised if we have no Rina at all. Ryan1000 19:52, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * If only Rina was as eager to develop as Jose was. Somehow we are having an El-Nino October when we are in fact going into a moderate La-Nina. This year is very very weird. Yqt1001 19:59, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * The greatest thing we can expect from the tropics is the unexpected. There wasn't a single one of the computer models in 2007 that called Humberto becoming a hurricane when it formed, and at the last minute, he somehow did the impossible. This year has been very strange, but mostly in a good way. We got luckier than we possibly ever could have with Hurricane Irene earlier this year, and although it caused 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths, it could have been much, much worse. The timing of it's landfall couldn't have been worse. Record August rainfall in New England kept the ground from holding any more water, the tides had reached their peak, not everyone in her path listened to the warnings, the only reason Irene wasn't as bad as it could have been was because she failed to recover from her ERC. If Irene did recover from it's eyewall replacement cycle, it would have been a historic, 100+ billion dollar catastrophe for the U.S. east coast. It was one of the costliest hurricanes in our nation's history nontheless, but was much less severe than it was feared to be. And Yasi still remains the most notable storm worldwide in 2011 in terms of impacts, since it was much worse for Australia than Irene was for us. Note Irene and Yasi are the more interesting topics of discussion here. This invest is turning into yet another epic failure. We might not see Rina after all. Ryan1000 20:22, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is a LLCC, but it's pretty far away from the thunderstorms.10'Q.'INVEST 00:31, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * For me still has a small chance even though i know that i may not get anything from thisAllanjeffs 04:11, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's only 20%. The circulation is now becoming elongated more than concentrated, and Rina probrably won't come from this after all. Ryan1000 07:08, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * 10%. This is only the third 60% fail I've ever seen since I started to track storms. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:08, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's down to a measly near 0%. It seems Rina won't come from this after all. I'm a bit surprised, but the season still isn't over yet. Ryan1000 19:50, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sorry, I haven't been around much, I've been slammed with work lately. It is painful how close these last two invests have been. It's crazy. I still think 93L was Rina, if briefly, and this thing was so close. If that center had migrated closer to the deep convection, that would've been good enough. We could easily be through Sean now. I think any chance we ever had of exhausting the list this year is gone now. To be honest, I'd be surprised if we get to Tammy. It's been an unusually quiet October. The only two October storms were carryovers from September. Philippe dissipated October 8. I'm fairly certain a non-El Nino year has NEVER ended that early. Ever. But the Atlantic sure looks done. Of all the models, only CMC develops anything in the Atlantic over the next week. -- SkyFury 22:46, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not quite, 1960 was neutral, and they didn't get anything after Florence dissipated on September 27. 1974 had their last subtropical storm die out on October 9, just one day after Philippe was killed. It looks like this year will have the second-earliest end to a non El Nino season. Ryan1000 23:12, October 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * There's still hope as this might move into the Atlantic ocean.10'Q.'INVEST 23:33, October 18, 2011 (UTC)

And 95L is gone off the TWO. Officially absorbed into a front. Yqt1001 23:47, October 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * And now all basins except NIO are now quiet.10'Q.'INVEST 00:31, October 19, 2011 (UTC)

Uh, NIO has no activity right now. The only thing out there is 93C, which is falling apart as we speak and is only at 10% for the next couple of days. Other than 93C, we're completely silent in the tropics. Ryan1000 02:39, October 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * Spoke too soon, Ryan! Depression BOB 04 is out there right now.10'Q.'INVEST 12:06, October 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well we might have something to watch in the next 7 days. Yqt1001 19:47, October 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * There still is a possibility we could have some more development in ATL, but we look just about shut down as far as I can see. The cold front heading across the eastern seaboard will produce lots of rain for the folks down in Florida up to New England, but no tropical cylones are expected to come from that due to unfavorable shear. The heart of the Atlantic is in a wasteland of shear right now and any development there seems highly unlikely IMO. This time of year is the ATL's brief secondary peak, but after this date both the ATL and EPac rapidly die away, and I wouldn't expect anything else possibly for the rest of the season if we don't get anything in the next week or so. And as ATL/EPac shut down, the SHem starts up, and WPac/NIO could have some additional activity as well. Ryan1000 20:37, October 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * And that front becomes a extratropical storm, which is right above me, dumping lots of useless rain. 10'Q.'INVEST 22:35, October 20, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: East of the Bahamas
30%.. finally some activity! Hurricane Kiewii 15:21, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

It's invested, but although this will probrably become Rina, all it will do is become a TS for a day or two and hit Nova Scotia or Newfoundland as a weak storm. Ryan1000 19:40, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Now invested.10'Q.'INVEST 19:50, October 13, 2011 (UTC)

Still at 30%.10'Q.'INVEST 23:37, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%, NHC says its likely this will be absorbed by a cold front soon. Yqt1001 23:51, October 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back up to 30%, it could be Rina briefly, if anything, but only cause some minor rainfall in Canada if it does. Ryan1000 02:05, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% again, likely to be absorbed by a front... 99.236.60.25 02:08, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * What do you mean? NHC still has this thing at 30%... Ryan1000 02:10, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's what they said:

A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS LOW COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.10'Q.'INVEST 02:30, October 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * Graphical TWO wasn't updated.10'Q.'INVEST 02:27, October 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Argh, Rina's not coming after all. We probrably won't stop where Philippe was, but we have two weeks left until hurricane season is pretty much done. When October ends, we're pretty much done for. Ryan1000 03:22, October 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * Gone Allanjeffs 18:20, October 14, 2011 (UTC)

This invest has now been absorbed by a frontal system. Most likely gonna become a nor'easter. Hurricane Kiewii 19:29, October 14, 2011 (UTC)

AOI:Off Africa
A new AOI has popped up, but it's only at 20%. There's some pretty hefty shear ahead of this one, but development is not impossible as it heads west at around 15 mph. Ryan1000 11:43, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It would be rather impressive if this develops. Would be no doubt one of the latest, if not the latest (latest I can think of is Joan, Oct 11) CV storm ever. There is an oasis of shear and warm water ahead of it, if it develops, it will have to be then. After that it will have to wait until about 65W to find another decent chance to develop. Yqt1001 12:39, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting any signifigant development of this system; it will run into a ton of shear by tomorrow and Monday, and behind all that shear is dry air, which will also knock this thing down a lot. CV storms are very rare for this time of year; Tomas of last year formed near the lessers and smacked St. Lucia as a powerful 100 mph storm, the latest lesser antillies strike on record, unless you count the Virgin Islands(Lenny) as a later storm. Joan of 1988 also formed near where Tomas did, as did an unnamed storm of 1892, but it's generally uncommon to see storms develop in this area at this time of year, and this won't be a Tomas or Joan IMO. Ryan1000 14:08, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

CV season isn't over!10'Q.'INVEST 14:38, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

this isn´t 95l is the one in the caribeanAllanjeffs 16:17, October 15, 2011 (UTC)

No, this is 95L. Looks pretty good too.10'Q.'INVEST 16:35, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Impressive for this time of year. Shows just how abnormal this season has been. No this isn't 95L. 95L is at 80W, not 30W. Yqt1001 16:43, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. Yqt1001 17:39, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * My bad. It said INVEST on NHC's satilite page.10'Q.'INVEST 20:25, October 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's starting to lose itself a bit and NHC says upper-level winds are going to get a bit rough for this one by tomorrow. So it doesn't look like this one will develop after all, which really isn't that surprising for this time of year. The AOI in the Caribbean still hasn't organized and remains at 20%, so unless it develops by, right now, we won't see any further development of that storm either. That AOI should have been around at least 40% now, but it just doesn't want to get it's act together. Irwin is apparently the only real thing worth watching as of now, I guess... Ryan1000 21:26, October 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * Its slowly fading, and our season is slowly slipping away. Hurricane Owen99 01:01, October 16, 2011 (UTC) 

ASCAT pass shows a decent LLC with this storm and CIMSS shows a strengthening anticyclone. I would say that if it can keep this together in the huge amount of shear ahead, it has a very high chance of development in the future. Yqt1001 14:27, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

I'm not so sure. It's going to be heading into further unfavorable upper-level conditions in the next few days, and since it's only at 10%, it could easily die there instead of develop later. The only way this storm can get it's act together is if there's no wind shear ahead of it, but NHC is confident the shear will stay there and will tear this thing up, which I think too. Ryan1000 15:52, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

This is off the TWO now. (anticyclone dissipated) Yqt1001 19:33, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Yep, this one's torn apart. It tried, and although it could regenerate later, it's not very likely to happen. Ryan1000 20:06, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Its back! 10%. Yqt1001 11:54, October 20, 2011 (UTC)

The ULL north of this AOI hasn't torn the sh!t out of this thing, but even though it has survived, I don't expect development by the time it reaches the lesser antilies. If it can hang on until it gets to the western Caribbean and the greater antillies though, then bad things are gonna happen. Ryan1000 21:13, October 20, 2011 (UTC)

Now down to near 0% again. This thing has pretty much vanished from the sattelite imagery and upper-level winds are still becoming less conducive for development. Ryan1000 10:41, October 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Back to 10%.10'Q.'INVEST 12:06, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, it's at "Near 10%". Never seen them use that before. Yqt1001 12:19, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
20% and invested. Yqt1001 19:15, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

I'm surprised as to why the models bring it north then west. Anyhow, this will probrably be Sean and it will head towards the greater antillies in the long run, but if 96L(Rina) doesn't get out of the way by then, I think a C1 will be the best of this one, if not a C2, but future Rina sure looks scary. I wouldn't be surprised if it bombs in the western Carribean pretty soon. Ryan1000 20:07, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

I have a feeling this one's going to get a face full of outflow from 96L/Rina and get sheared into oblivion. So if it's gonna become Sean, it better get on with it. -- SkyFury 21:49, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

we may not see Sean after this thing Allanjeffs 02:00, October 22, 2011 (UTC)

No changes in organization. It might have gotten worse.10'Q.'INVEST 04:41, October 22, 2011 (UTC)

The models take this to near a major hurricane in the long run, so this one still bears watching. It may become Rina if 96L can't do it. Now SHIPS doesn't even forecast a TS out of 96L. Ryan1000 15:19, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

This one is interesting. The GFDL blows it up, but I think that has to be considered an outlier at this point. The global models aren't near so enthusiastic. We'll have to see. The FSU model site crapped out on me before I got a chance to look at the HWRF solution. But regardless, it should be interesting. -- SkyFury 04:29, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Really? I can't even load the page! But this could still explode when it gets into the Eastern Carribean.10'Q.'INVEST 12:14, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This one has become more organize i think we eill see Sean from this Allanjeffs 15:14, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Rina's going to be dominating the western Caribbean sea for the next several days, so unless she moves out, this one won't explode from how i'm seeing it. Ryan1000 22:40, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 20% now. Yqt1001 23:49, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I expect this one to hit Jamacia as a hurricane, or pass just around Jamacia before hitting Cuba. Otherwise, i'm not sure what. If Rina is still in the western Caribbean when this one (Sean) comes around, i'm not expecting much from him. Ryan1000 01:15, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40% now per special TWO. This is getting interesting. -- SkyFury 03:06, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maybe the E. Caribbean isn't as much of a graveyard this year than last year. Yqt1001 03:19, October 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * I knew this one has the opportunity to become sean i knew at peak i think cat 2 it could be lower or higher depends on Rina and the enviroment Allanjeffs 03:26, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 30%. Yqt1001 12:20, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%. Yqt1001 19:07, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now only 10%. We might not see Sean from this after all... Ryan1000 02:01, October 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...Still at 10%, but now it's been de-invested. Now I'm starting to doubt we'll pass Rina at all. Ryan1000 19:47, October 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now a measly near 0%. This wave just got screwed over. Ryan1000 01:13, October 27, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: South of Azores
Per what Ryan said on 95L's section.10'Q.'INVEST 04:18, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * This storm is heading further south than most models showed, so it may have a chance. Yqt1001 05:05, October 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone from NHC now. Ryan1000 11:52, October 16, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: SW Caribbean
4 models show this developing in the next 5 days. 10% right now. Yqt1001 11:55, October 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Expected to live for a short time.10'Q.'INVEST 12:13, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It is? All of the models, even the ones who don't show development, have this staying around for 5 days. Yqt1001 12:19, October 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Looks like my country will suffer more rain with this aoi maybe we will have Rina of this Allanjeffs 16:43, October 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * 20% nowAllanjeffs 17:44, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The CMC remains consistent that this will become a hurricane. Now, we all know that the CMC has a bias on blowing up storms, but it's not usually this consistent. This is day two of it having this AOI head up into Cuba and then Florida as a hurricane... Yqt1001 20:09, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS has this having a landfall in Belize...as a weak storm.10'Q.'INVEST 20:22, October 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not expecting much out of this one. It may become Rina, but TS intensity is probrably all i'm expecting from this one. The tail end of that cold front is still shearing this a little, but by the time it moves out, if this storm still remains well over open waters, it may have a chance to explode. I think proxmitity to Central America will hinder signifigant intensification, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 21:09, October 20, 2011 (UTC)

30% now. Lots of models show development, some show a hurricane. Yqt1001 12:27, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

we have now invest 96 BEGIN

NHC_ATCF invest_al962011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201110211231 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L,, , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011102112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011 AL, 96, 2011102012,, BEST, 0, 150N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011102018,, BEST, 0, 145N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011102100,, BEST, 0, 142N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011102106,, BEST, 0, 138N, 800W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, AL, 96, 2011102112,, BEST, 0, 135N, 800W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Allanjeffs 12:50, October 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Why I have such a bad feeling that Rina could pull a Wilma? --88.102.101.245 13:30, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Invested now. 30%, but it's going to be higher by later today or tomorrow. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 13:33, October 21, 2011 (UTC)

60% now we may see rina out of this Allan jeffs
 * I see absolutely no reason as to why we won't see Rina. This storm doesn't have a short time limit unlike the last 2 chances at Rina. This one still has 4-5 days. Oh and now we have the European model on board with development, and it's acutally showing a 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane situation. Yqt1001 19:10, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not all of them do that just yet. There is still a possibility it could head westward and hit Nicaragua like Beta in 2005, as indicated by NOGAPS and BAMM. However, the GFS, GFDL, and HWRF models all take this into a 135-140 mph monster bombing western Cuba 5 days from now. That's not good at all. I hope the next approaching cold front will turn it away from southern Florida, but I can't say that's certain as of yet. I think it's fair to say that the ATL is back into gear again though. This is looking like a re- Michelle or Paloma IMO. Ryan1000 20:07, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * So far this is moving west, wrong way 96L.10'Q.'INVEST 21:37, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, I very much agree, this is looking a lot like Michelle/Paloma. The model forecasts for this one are kinda scaring the piss out of me. The dynamical models (GFDL and HWRF, the only ones that give us a precise intensity forecast) both plow it into Cuba as a major hurricane and aim it right at south Florida. Granted, the current track forecast would take it through the Everglades, but the Florida Keys could be in serious trouble. They need to keep a sharp eye on this. Ryan, this is one is also reminding me a little bit of the two 1948 hurricanes that hit Florida. Tropics all of a sudden have gotten really interesting. -- SkyFury 21:46, October 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yqt, in terms of Florida impacts, I don't think Tampa will be severely affected by this future hurricane in the long run. The Florida Keys and the area near Miami may get quite a battering from this potential major hurricane, but the Tampa area shouldn't get a direct hit from (Rina) as far as i'm concerned. As for Cuba, they're about to get battered yet again... Cuba was hit by only 6 C4 or stronger hurricanes from 1900 to 2000. Rina may be the 5th C4 to strike the country in only the last 10 years. I don't have a good feeling about this wave. When that cold front moves out of the way, this storm will take off like there's no tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if we get a C5 out of this storm, but it sure looks scary for the folks in the Keys and Cuba. Ryan1000 23:51, October 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * 70%. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:16, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * The circle has greatly decreased in size over the last TWO, but that doesn't mean we are any less likely to see Rina. The conditions for explosive development are almost perfect. Very low wind shear, bathtub warm SST's, and unfortunately, unavoidable landfall. I think this storm could very easily be our second serious retirement canidate this year. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:56, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow this thing is going to be small when it develops. Small storms = not good at all in preferable conditions. This thing has a really high chance of RIing, if not perfect chance. The upper level ridging pattern will be perfect for this thing to explode in conditions that may not seem good enough, something like 20kts shear should only disrupt the core enough to stop explosive intensification... 2011 has a few tricks up it's sleeve still. As of right now, 96L's low level "center" is quite far from the convection.Yqt1001 02:37, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * LLCC not yet made landfall, probably not going to make one now.10'Q.'INVEST 03:28, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Models have backed off the intensity forecast though in the latest runs, which are kinda confusing. The GFDL now swings it out, blows it up into a major hurricane as before, but then runs it into central America, which doesn't make any sense. The other models also show a more pronounced shift back to the west, though most not as much as the GFDL is showing. GFS slowly migrates it up to the Yucatan Channel and then sends it toward the Florida Keys. That could get ugly, but I think wind shear is going to pick up late in the period. I'd be surprised if it's still a major hurricane when it gets to the Keys (if that's in fact where it goes). GFS has it interacting with some low over the SE US. Not sure what to make of that. And to make things even more confusing, the ECMWF now mysteriously kills it in three days in the middle of a low shear environment over the juicy warm waters of the western Caribbean. WTF? The way I see it, the only obstacle for this thing is land interaction and with the weak steering pattern currently in place is making the track forecast really difficult. This plot however seems to suggest a lot of models are taking it up toward the Yucatan Channel, which could be a problem. So I'm not sure what to make of it at this point. We'll see how it goes. It's these kinds of storms that make the NHC earn their paychecks. -- SkyFury 08:18, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Intensity forecasting is crucial with these kinds of storms. They form down in the Caribbean, and, under the right conditions, they explode and then make landfall with very little warning at all. The folks in little Cayman and Cayman Brac were smashed really hard by hurricane Paloma in 2008, but Paloma didn't even exist 3-4 days earlier. They had no idea the storm was coming. This thing could explode into a monster storm in the northwest Caribbean and strike Cuba and Florida with barely a few days warning like Paloma. I don't have good feelings about this wave at all. Yqt, the fact that the circulation remains over water means it has more time to strengthen before landfall. I would be surprised if we don't have a TD by the end of today, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 11:58, October 22, 2011 (UTC)

Well, it's down to 60%. It just doesn't want to spin up. Yqt1001 13:12, October 22, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now the models seem a little more confident that this one will head into CA and not Cuba or the U.S. The models that once thought this would hit C4 now don't even take it past TS intensity. This might just be a re-Katrina(1999) if it does that. Ryan1000 14:40, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * ASCAT pass reveals a well defined almost closed LLC...a full degree away from the tiny center of convection. Not quite ready to be called a TD yet, but definitely better than it was yesterday. Yqt1001 16:26, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC puts it down to 50% because it will go into Central America. Which seems unlikely imho. They did the same with Paula last year..she never went into Central America either. Edit: Haha, after looking at Paula's archives. She went from 30% to 60% really quickly. Started going west, went down to 50%. Jumped to 80% and got upgraded to a 60mph TS soon after. In the exact same location too. Yqt1001 17:47, October 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * True this is looking more like Paula in fact Paula make landfall in cabo gracias adios Honduras as a strenghtening storm before going north this could be the same Allanjeffs 17:50, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I didn't expect the downgrade to 50%, but it only has a day or two until it runs into CA, so this wave still has a chance, but as I mentioned earlier, I wouldn't be surprised if it's proxmitity to land kills it. It has a chance though, so don't let your guard down. Ryan1000 18:48, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Boy oh boy, what a difference a day makes. Just yesterday, it looked like we could be dealing with a major hurricane headed for Florida. Now it looks like we aren't going to get anything at all. Story of this season. And 97L has become less organized too. This season really has just quit on us. Unbelievable. Philippe dissipated October 8. After a near-record pace the first few months, we could be looking at the earliest end to a non-El Nino season in history. -- SkyFury 22:03, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nah, it's just for today. Tomorrow everything should come together and 96L should be numbered/named. Monday is when everything will be the best for strengthening, however vertical instability has really dropped the last few days. Yqt1001 22:40, October 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * now that the surface circulation is better now we need more thunderstorm and is a go on Allanjeffs 23:42, October 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks better now. 10'Q.'INVEST 04:42, October 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * 70% here come the 18 tropical depression of the season Allanjeffs 05:34, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * SHIPS only takes this to 49 knots... And Eric, no. I mentioned earlier 1960 was a neutral season and there was nothing after Florence dissipated on September 27. We could make the second-earliest end, but not the first, and now we have a higher chance of seeing Rina now that this is at 70% again, so that could end any hopes of an early end for us. Ryan1000 06:49, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * The GFS doesn't develop 96L, so the SHIPS has no path to use to make it's intensity forecasts. I wouldn't even waste your time looking at it right now tbh. Anyways, it's down to 60% again at 8am..which is interesting because the TWO mentions no reason for the downgrade. Yqt1001 11:34, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now SHIPS doesn't even forecast a minor TS out of this. Perhaps 97L can do the trick if this one can't. Ryan1000 15:19, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane hunters heading for 96L have departed Biloxi. Should get there in time for a possible 5pm first advisory but not the 2pm TWO. Yqt1001 16:25, October 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it will develop, or otherwise we will have to shift our attention to 97L.10'Q.'INVEST 17:07, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2pm TWO, the usual "slight increase in organization will cause a TD to form". Pretty much, let's see what recon says. Yqt1001 17:49, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * And so close! We'll have to wait for 3 hours.10'Q.'INVEST 17:56, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Some of the models take this up to hurricane strength, but most of them run it into the Nicaragua/Honduras border or Belize. HWRF still takes this one into southern Florida as a 100 mph C2, but it isn't very likely that will happen, and i'm not counting on it. Ryan1000 19:12, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

Well recon made it's first pass. It missed the center, however the direction of the winds are convincing enough to prove that there is an LLC somewhere on the eastern edge of the convection. TD18 at 5pm seems likely. However the strongest winds found so far have been 25mph... Yqt1001 19:34, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

TD 18 is born invest_RENUMBER_al962011_al182011.ren.Allanjeffs 20:06, October 23, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 18
And here we go! 35mph winds, 1005mb pressure. Expected to be a TS at landfall on the Yucatan. TS warnings for part of the Honduras coast. Yqt1001 20:46, October 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes!10'Q.'INVEST 20:51, October 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, I must admit that the NHC track is shown by none of the models and that they are simply being in the middle of the model consensus. (which is shown by the huge cone) Half of which have 18L going into Honduras and the other half takes it northerly, so at this point the NHC track seems unlikely. Also 18L is supposed to maintain its intensity at 50kts for 3 days, in conditions that the NHC says is favourable for strengthening. The uncertainty here is rather incredible. Yqt1001 20:55, October 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Which one do you think is more probalbe to happen becuase here in H onduras we are at the top with all that water that come last week Allanjeffs 21:00, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think a landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua is most likely as of now. Yqt, I'm surprised the NHC forecast isn't following the more reliable models based on what they're expecting. To tell the truth, the only model that takes this storm following the NHC's path is GFDL,and GFDL isn't exactly the best model; it's rather biased. HWRF takes this thing past Belize and the Yucatan and then recurving to hit the U.S. as a category 2 near Cape Romano, Florida, in the same place struck by Hurricane Wilma almost 6 years to this day on October 24, 2005. GFS, BAMM, NAM, and NOGAPS all take this storm into the Honduras/Nicaragua border by tomorrow, and I wouldn't be surprised if that's what happens. But we'll have to wait and see. NOGAPS was the only model that initially took Irene north of Hispaniola, and that's just what she did. All we can expect is the unexpected. Ryan1000 23:47, October 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ryan but td 18 is moving NNW instead of west or SW so I think that they are good with the track because it is already north of Honduras and continues to north so I don´t see that track appening so i say that they are good but in intensity i am not so sure Allanjeffs 23:51, October 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * That may only be temporary Allan. It may turn back WSW or WNW as soon as tomorrow or the next advisory. We may easily have this thing heading on the GFDL or HWRF models a lot sooner than I thought. I'm looking at the WUnderground computer models, and either they're completely wrong or this is only temporary. I still think this storm may have a chance of hitting the U.S. or Cuba as a strong hurricane, but it might have already missed it's chance of exploding. We'll have to wait and see. This thing just formed a few hours back, so there could be a lot of adjustments to the tracks and models today and tomorrow. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:04, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Advisory 1A out...and still no Tropical Storm Rina. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:15, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It would soon.10'Q.'INVEST 00:45, October 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now it is a TS AL, 18, 2011102400,, BEST, 0, 161N, 820W, 35, 1004, TS Allanjeffs 01:08, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Rina
Per what Allanjeffs said.10'Q.'INVEST 01:26, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Officially TS Rina now. Just so you know, I wouldn't post the headers without official confirmation from the NHC. NHC doesn't always follow what ATCF says. Oh and forecasts calls for a category 1 hurricane now. Yqt1001 02:37, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it won't get any stronger than that, and even so, Richard hit Belize as a 100 mph storm last year and wasn't so bad, so hopefully Rina, if it hits them, won't do so much damage either. As of now, it's still a bit disorganized. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 03:01, October 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * The NHC says that they are using the conservaitve side imagine the other one Allanjeffs 03:30, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hey! We got Rina after all! This storm is looking like a bitch to forecast, I'm kinda glad I don't have to. There are so many factors you have to take into account. As far as intensity goes, the water is juicy. Wind shear isn't great but it's decreasing. That said, there's a lot of dry air in the area and who knows how that's gonna affect Rina. It could really hamper it or it could do nothing at all. As for the track, the more its strengthens, the more it will feel the break in that ridge, the faster it will recurve. The ridge is expected to rebuild a little bit to the west, but another trough will come down and bring the storm back north, so Rina should enter the Gulf of Mexico at some point in its life where it could threaten the US. Storms like this really make me nervous because they could do just about anything. We really need to pay close attention to this storm because there are so many variables. -- SkyFury 04:09, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I still have the bad feeling that Rina could pull a Wilma. --88.102.101.245 11:53, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * This can't pull a Wilma because it's too close to land, but damage could come from any catagory # hurricane.10'Q.'INVEST 12:11, October 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now forecast to peak below cat 2 but i think it will need to go upward Allanjeffs 15:16, October 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Rina now the six hurricane of the season continue strenghtening is forecast and now peak as a major Yucatan better watch out this storm Allanjeffs 18:47, October 24, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Rina
Yup. Special update. ...RINA QUICKLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... Like I said 3 days ago, yesterday would be it's formation day, today would be the day it strengthens the most. Expected to become the seasons 4th major! And the adage continues, "beware of the R storms". Yqt1001 19:04, October 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * I keep this at catagory 3 hurricane.10'Q.'INVEST 19:48, October 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * "Rina intensified into a hurricane just 21 hours after the first advisory was issued for it as a tropical depression. This is the second fastest such intensification since record keeping began in 1851. Hurricane Humberto of 2007 holds the Atlantic record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). There have been six storms that accomplished the feat in 24 hours." Incredibly well done Rina! You just showed all the TSs this year how it's done. :P Yqt1001 20:14, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Beware "R" names? I think the great adage should be beware "I" names... Only Rita and Roxanne have ever been retired in R name history, Richard wasn't that bad last year and 1969, 1933, and 1887 would have had "R" names if tropical cyclones were named by then(1969 had a few unnamed storms). But anyways, whoa. I didn't expect this jump. Rina is like Humberto over open waters. It became a hurricane in less than a day and the latest sattelite imagery scared the crap out of me. I spy with my little eye... an RI'ing hurricane with a PINHOLE EYE. This could easily become a C4 or C5 by tomorrow or Wensday. The latest forecast takes her into Cancun and Cozumel as a 3, but this one is really reminding me of Wilma. Same area, same size, same strengthening conditions, they all add up to one thing - devastation. Stay tuned. This could get really ugly. Ryan1000 20:24, October 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ryan I think Wilma was bigger than Rina is a small hurricane remeber Allanjeffs 20:50, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Allan, Wilma was about this size when she was a C1 too. She expanded a ton when she strengthened and underwent an ERC, and I expect the same will happen with Rina. Just because she is small now doesn't mean she won't expand later. And even if she doesn't explode in her size, i'm pretty sure she is already doing that in her strength. Ryan1000 20:58, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa! What did Rina have for breakfast, rocket fuel? Wow! Ryan, I don't think Rina will continue to bomb. It is possible it could get up to Cat 4, I wouldn't rule it out, but Rina is a small storm and small storms are very volitile and prone to dramatic swings in intensity. Wilma had pretty much an ideal environment to just explode. Rina has some wind shear and dry air to deal with, plus an approaching front that's going to cause shear to increase in 48 hours or so. So I would rule out a Cat 5 at this point. It seems extremely unlikely. All that said, things could still get rough for the Yucatan, particularly Cancun-Cozumel. It would not surprise me if Rina was a major hurricane when it gets there. The Florida Keys should also definately pay attention to this, though the storm is likely to be much weaker by the time it gets there (assuming it does, which is assuming a lot), probably not more than a Cat 1. -- SkyFury 21:37, October 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends. Rina's undergoing some rather quick strengthening by now, and although it could weaken from some dry air and shear, from how i'm seeing it on the sattelite imagery, this thing is just about to take off. It's propelling some outflow north of it to help knock away that small amount of dry air, and 2 days can make the difference between almost nothing and a disaster waiting to happen. Paula became a 105 mph C2 when it was approaching Cancun last year, but it recurved just before it affected them and was almost nothing when it hit Cuba. The thing is, Rina's already a C1 and it's showing almost no signs of weakening. Most of the environment around this tiny little thing is very favorable, so this thing could explode into a C3-4 as soon as tomorrow, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does. Whether or not it beats the cold front to Cancun and Cozumel is the big story. Cuba and Florida shouldn't get much, if anything, bad out of this storm. Ryan1000 22:40, October 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * I have a feeling Rina will be a C2 at the next advisory... Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:47, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not going to be a cat. 2 yet, 80 mph.10'Q.'INVEST 02:46, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't do huge upgrades when there's recon coming within 6 hours (in this case, going to get to Rina before the 5am EDT update). Yqt1001 02:51, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Very much agreed. NHC will always, without fail, take the the conservative route unless there's recon to back it up, at times to a fault. If T-numbers are up, they will generally split the difference between TAFB and SAB, which is the smart thing to do. What I have a problem with is when a storm is forming. NHC is obsessive compulsive about having recon analyze every last detail of the storm before they declare that one has formed. I know it's good to be diligent and make sure, but at times I think NHC over does it. Notice how many recent storms have started as tropical storms, and how many of those had depression stages added on in post-analysis. -- SkyFury 05:58, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

For the record, and I'm surprised nobody's mentioned this, this is the first time in recorded history that we've had back-to-back seasons of at least 16 storms, and we're at 17 and counting. I know that 2010-2011 will never be able to hold a candle to 2003-2005, but this is the first time we've reached the 'P' storm in back-to-back years, and now we've reached the 'R' storm in back-to-back years and have a chance to do the same thing for 'S'. That's pretty remarkable. -- SkyFury 07:52, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Now Rina's at 100 mph. We have a chance to see a major pretty soon, but its looking a little grim for the folks in Cancun. I'm expecting Sean to come after Rina, but i'm not expecting either hurricane to become catastrophic. Still, they could be destructive. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 09:17, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Rina has an eye now. 105mph but recon is finding 110mph surface winds, with one suspected wind reading of 140mph. I believe that Rina is likely to become the 4th major hurricane soon! Edit: Dropsonde released has 120mph surface winds. Yqt1001 19:07, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS and HWRF take this one into southern Florida, but I think this storm will be a Paula, but not missing the Yucatan Peninsula. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 19:35, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

Well she's at 110mph at 5pm. But wow, her overall organization beats all major hurricanes so far this year. Look at the outflow coming from her! It's almost picturesque! Recon will be in Rina in an hour or so and should be able to see if anything has changed for the 8pm update. Yqt1001 21:42, October 25, 2011 (UTC)

She is probable a major now with the info the recon have give us pressure 962,Allanjeffs 23:01, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Recon vortex message out. 100kts winds confirmed, pressure 966mb. Quite a drop. Oh and the eye diameter is only 17nm. That's a really tiny eye.... Yqt1001 23:37, October 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Nope..still 110mph..weird. Yqt1001 23:48, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Like you said, NHC doesn't make big updates when there's more information coming from the recon. 10'Q.'INVEST 00:31, October 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it'll briefly be a major hurricane and hit the upper Yucatan near Cancun as a C2, but i'm not personally expecting anything catastrophic from this thing. Ryan1000 02:01, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

NHC has decided that the 100kts wind bfound y recon is dismissible..at least they said that Rina is very very close to MH status. Another recon plane is heading to Rina as we speak. Yqt1001 02:52, October 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * And still not upgraded.10'Q.'INVEST 22:46, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

Recon has found that Rina has weakened to a 85mph category 1 hurricane. She probably has peaked, but I think that she might've peaked as a major hurricane for a few hours last night. There's always post season! Yqt1001 19:08, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I personally don't think that happened. Alex of last year had a better chance of being upgraded to a 3 upon it's landfall in Monterrey last year(seriously, a 946 mbar storm should be at least a C3, if not a 4), but that never happened. There is a storm near Newfoundland right now that looked like it had subtropical charicteristics at one point earlier today, but it might have been only temporary, so we might not see a post-season upgrade to a subtropical storm from that either. This being said, I guess Rina will slowly start dying down. A Paula repeat seems most likely from this storm at the rate it is going. NHC only expects the shear to get worse from here on out, so no redevelopment is likely. Oh and 97L has been deactivated. All that being said and done, it looks like the 2011 AHS is starting to wrap up. Ryan1000 19:47, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Still at 85 mph, another Paula...10'Q.'INVEST 22:46, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">That system near Newfoundland almost became a subtropical storm. It's really a extratropical storm with a >950 mbar pressure. Rina's development over eastern Atlantic is still possible.10'Q.'INVEST 22:49, October 26, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
No harm in starting this early, like we did with the EPAC and WPAC, now is there? (names that I think will be retired are in bold) --HurricaneMaker99 15:29, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% - 25 deaths and $213 million are respectable fatality and damage totals, but probably not enough to earn retirement.
 * Bret: 0% - The resilience was admirable; however, considering the lack of any major effects, retirement is out of the question.
 * Cindy: 0% - I feel kinda bad booing her, since she survived into some really cold waters, but... BOO
 * Don: 0% - Normally I'm nice enough to give at least 1% to landfalling storms, but Don did literally nothing.
 * Emily: 2% - A lot of promise gone to waste here, though there were fatalities.
 * Franklin: 0% - I smell fish...
 * Gert: 0% - Aside from the odd fresh gust in Bermuda, nothing.
 * Harvey: 5% - Minor damage and a few fatalities, but nothing in comparison to Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Widespread and extensive damage; $10 billion across the Caribbean and US? The outright pummeling of the Bahamas, the coastal flooding in NC and VA, the catastrophic inland flash flooding in Vermont and other areas... Irene has made enough enemies to be an easy candidate for retirement.
 * Jose: 0% - What Ryan said (lol).
 * Katia: 2% - Knocked up the UK a bit while extratropical, but had minimal effects on land as a tropical cyclone.
 * Lee: 35% - I'm getting Agnes-ish vibes from this one. Those floods were widespread and destructive, and in some places in PA and NY, just horrific. Lee broke flooding records from Agnes. Agnes, for Christ's sake! Granted it's a bit more likely that Lee will go the way of Fay, he could pull an Allison, too. I'll be very interested to see where the monetary damage figures end up – I'm expecting at least Fay-like totals.
 * Maria: 2% - Not even close to a re-Igor for Newfoundland, and the Lessers didn't get much damage either.
 * Nate: 5% - Veracruz has seen much worse than this.
 * Ophelia: 11% - Tacking on an extra 1% purely because she was so awesome. Reversed some progress in repairing from Igor, but wasn't nearly as bad as he was; though I'd like to hear more about the impact in Dominica.
 * Philippe: 0% - Triumphant fishspinner, but a fishspinner nonetheless.


 * I'm going to wait until later here. If 91L (Emily) of this year happens to do what her 2005 predecesor couldn't(that is, cause enough damage to be retired), then I'll throw in my percentages because as of now, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement. Thus far, I'd be surprised if we have ANY names nominated. Arlene didn't hit Mexico hard enough, and every other storm thus far did virtually nothing. Ryan1000 05:03, July 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine:
 * Arlene - 15% - It killed two dozen people, but Mexico has seen worse than her, and Arlene's coming back in 2017.
 * Bret - 0% - I don't think Bret's going, unless he's some tyrant name.
 * Cindy - 0% - See you in 2017!!!
 * Don - 1% - Affected land, dropped 2/3 inch of rain in Brownsville, that's it. No way Don's going.
 * Emily - 4% - Not Hanna or Gordon bad.
 * Franklin - 0% - See Cindy's section.
 * Gert - 0.01% - Only because she forced TS warnings for Bermuda.
 * Harvey - 5% - It wasn't a fishie, but if Matthew last year didn't go, then Harvey won't.
 * Irene - 80% - Irene has caused enough damage to remove herself.
 * Jose - 0% - See Gert's section.
 * Katia - 1% - The UK may request retirement, but it's not likely.
 * Lee - 50% - Good chance.
 * Maria - 5% - If a storm like Maria hit NF last year, would it have gone? No!
 * Nate - 3% - Even Arlene makes this storm a fail.
 * Ophelia - 5% - See Emily's section.
 * Philippe - 1% - FAIL!
 * Rina - TBA - Still Active
 * Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:08, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I won't be doing any guessing, but here are the minimals: $1 million was the least amount of damages that a retired hurricane in the Atlantic has caused, set by category 1 Hurricane Klaus in 1990, but caused 11 deaths. The least amount of deaths a hurricane has caused is 1, set by category 4 Hurrciane Dora in 1964, but it did $239 million in damages. Arlene had minimal damage but caused 25 deaths, so think about that. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:15, August 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * You have to think more about where the hurricane hits and examine how bad it was for the affected country or territory as a whole instead of just base things off of what Wikipedia says ect. Keep in mind Hurricane Karl last year caused a similar number of deaths to Arlene this year(22), but it was signifigantly more destructive in Mexico and caused so many more problems for Mexico than Arlene did. If they didn't retire him, then there is no excuse why Arlene should be retired. And Dora killed 3 people, one directly and two indirectly. Paloma of 2008 only caused one(indirect) death in Jamaica. That's the record low for a retired name for deaths in NAtl. Klaus was described as one of the worst storms in Martinique's history. That's why it became retired at the request of the government of France, even though the overall damage wasn't that high. Damages and impacts are not proportional based on where the hurricane hits. A storm that devastates an impoverished country like Haiti might do nothing to the U.S. Vise Versa, a storm that does nothing to the U.S. might be devastating elsewhere across the Caribbean. The U.S. and Mexico are rather conservative on retirements because both countries get hit all the time with hurricanes. Smaller island nations in the Caribbean like the Barbados, Martinique and St. Lucia, Dominica, St. Kits and Nevis, or Trinidad and Tobago are more fragile to hurricanes than the U.S. and Mexico are, so a hurricane tearing up the Caribbean, like Dean of 2007, has a better chance of retirement than a similarily destructive U.S. hurricane like Juan of 1985, simply because so many more countries can request it to be retired. Ryan1000 01:37, August 1, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 20% - Damage was minimal, but a quarter 100 deaths? That's a hefty amount. However, Arlene did not cause many big problems to Mexico. Mexico also has been reluctant to retire what most would think to be terrible storms (well, technically all (except the fishies) are). If Karl was not retired, not Arlene. Bret: 0% - Thanks for your ability to fight the shear! Cindy: 0% - Cold water fishy Don: 1% - Don had hopes to bring the South Texas drought to a...well...away from exceptional, but Don did nothing but drop a few barely beneficial drops of rain. Emily: 5% - Emily caused deaths and damage especially to Hispaniola, but not enough for any true retirement. Franklin: 0% - A stupid storm in the middle of the ocean. If I were to give it a nickname I would call it 'The Perfect Fail' Gert: 0% - Gert did cause some issues, but it did not do much to Bermuda except bring some gusty winds as it moved to the east. On the move to 2017! Harvey: 4% - With the exception of 3 deaths and some flooding, Harvey was not a major issue. Irene: 97% - I'm placing my retirement card on Irene because she was too much. She cannot pull of a Karl because she was a big deal to so many countries. In the end, Puerto Rico will probably request retirement, Hispaniola probably will too with 5 deaths and Haiti, which practically will retire ANY hurricane that comes over them due to the earthquake's prolonged affects, cholera outbreak, worse living conditions, etc. For the Turks and Caicos and Bahamas, damage wasn't too bad, especially when you look at past storms, but there were damages, and was considered the worst hurricane since Floyd. For them retirement is a maybe. The United States will 100% retire Irene: 35 (2) deaths and ~$7 billion. Overall, the odds of retirement are almost certain. Once again let me put the numbers in perspective: 43 indirect and direct deaths, $10.1 billion in damages CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:38, August 30, 2011 (UTC)


 * Arlene: 20% Cause some impact in Mexico it kills at least 25 but like they said here Mexico have seen worst things.
 * Bret: 1% He survived shear and just that, The 1% is for the effect on the Bahamas but retirement is not gonna happen.
 * Cindy: 0% What does she do???NOTHING but I admire her by her duration on cold water
 * Don: 1% That 1% is just for the damage in the carribean and just that, not even give Texas the water that it need just after landfall it dissipites Fail
 * Emily : 3% A lot of promises but not even one she do.
 * Franklin: 0% you and Cindy are just gonna be best friends, you two have a lot in common especially that both of you are fails.
 * Gert: 1% just because she affected Bermuda, but hey honey you are staying no matter what.
 * Harvey : 3% damage in my country nor belize was enough to earn retirement but at least it tried.
 * Irene:97% for me damage was enough for retirement Puerto Rico or the U.S.A may ask the name of this beauty.
 * Jose:1% Another system make of a front boundary of the 2011 but I have to give him credit for surviving and strenghtening in the high shear
 * Katia:10% good storm to track but not she is not going even with the effects on Europe because at that time she was extratropical
 * Lee:35% it did damge but not severe for retirement but I have to say he is one of the best candidates until now with Irene and Arlene
 * Maria:5% it was not that bad but it was a hurricane nontheless
 * Nate:5% dissipite after landfall PATHETIC just like don
 * Ophelia: 25 to 35% damage in Dominica a lot but not severe and it has a chance nevertheless
 * Philippe: 0% because it didn´t affect land but i need to give him credit for nearly becoming a cat 2 and our 5 hurricane of the season
 * Rina?


 * Allanjeffs 03:00, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * :: okz well here r my forcasts
 * arlene 18% deaths and damage but not alot
 * bret 1% cause of the bahamas but no real retirement
 * cindy 0% ur on the train to 2017
 * don 2% cause of the caribian but not really
 * emily 6% well alot of brushing land
 * franklin 0%ur also on the train to 2017 =D
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda
 * gert 2% she brushed bermuda

Well, I'll give my (official) percentages as of now: A summary is here:
 * Arlene - 20% - 25 deaths and 213 million is a pretty hefty number, but it's just not enough for retirement.
 * Bret - 0% - There's fail...
 * Cindy - 0% - ...And there's epic fail!
 * Don - 0% - We could have used more rain from this epic failure of a TS.
 * Emily - 5% - Not bad enough.
 * Franklin - 0% - Which one was Franklin again?
 * Gert - 0% - It tried and failed.
 * Harvey - 5% - It tried and failed.
 * Irene - 85% - It tried and succeded.
 * Jose - 0% - No way Jose.
 * Katia - 0% - It doesn't matter if it was strong, because it never affected land nontheless.
 * Lee - 30% - Some pretty heavy inland flooding came from this one, but Lee was no Allison for the U.S.
 * Maria - 5% - No signifigant damage came anywhere from Maria, so I see no retirement here.
 * Nate - 5% - Even Arlene was much worse than this one.
 * Ophelia - 20% - Although Dominica could retire her, chances aren't in favor of it. Still, it has a chance.
 * Philippe - 0% - A long-lived and persistent storm, but like Katia, it was a fishspinner nontheless.
 * Rina - ?? - TBA.
 * Definitely retired - Irene.
 * Possibly retired - Arlene, Lee, Ophelia.
 * Not retired - Everyone else.

That's all I'll say for now. Ryan1000 07:23, October 18, 2011 (UTC)

Here's mine:


 * Arlene - 5% - Karl didn't get retired, why should this one?


 * Bret - 0% - Other than TS warnings, it did nothing.


 * Cindy - 0% - It wasn't even close to Bermuda.


 * Don - 0% - Could have gotten a higher number, but this one really failed.


 * Emily - 5% It did brush the Leeward Islands.


 * Franklin - 0% - This one's not going.


 * Gert - 0% - Only TD winds were felt at Bermuda.


 * Harvey - 5% - Well, it tried.


 * Irene - 95% - It did enough damage in the Carribean, adding the East Coast makes it go off the list.


 * Jose - 5% - It formed so close to Bermuda and it still did nothing.


 * Katia - 20% - Unless it did moderate or serious damage in Europe.


 * Lee - 20% - It has damage, but not too much.
 * Maria - 10% - Unless your looking forward to it as a Igor-like storm.
 * Nate - 5% - See Arlene's section.
 * Ophelia - 40% - The damage in Dominica seem pretty intense. The damage in Newfoundland was kind of bad, where the roads weren't repaired well. I wouldn't be suprised if this gets retired.
 * Philippe - 0% - 90 mph of failure.
 * Rina - ?

Here's a summary.. 10Q.INVEST 00:20, October 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone - Irene
 * Might be gone - Lee, Katia, Maria, Arlene, Ophelia, Rina
 * Staying - the rest

Here are mine:


 * Arlene - 15% - Possible, but unlikely.


 * Bret - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Cindy - 0% - Fishspinner


 * Don - <1% - Hardly did anything.


 * Emily - 5% - Some effect, but not severe.


 * Franklin - 0% - Near fishspinner.


 * Gert - 0% - Bermuda just got a little breeze.


 * Harvey - 1% - minimal damage.


 * Irene - 90% - U.S. damage is estimated to be about $7 billion, and add the Caribbean damage and it totals to about $10 billion. The U.S. won't pass on this one I am pretty sure.


 * Jose - 3% - Some effect at Bermuda, but nothing very severe.

70.171.254.210 01:44, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine: All of that saying so far, Irene will be the first storm to get the boot. Now, Isaac is the last remaining original I storm. Given that they are cursed, I expect that to get the boot in a few years too. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:20, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 15% – Didn't do a whole much of anything... I didn't see any reports of Mexico calling this that bad.
 * Bret: 0% – Obvious
 * Cindy: 0% – Obvious
 * Don: 1% – Donepicfail will never ever be retired, ever.
 * Emily: 4% – Emilyfail didn't do anything much to Hispaniola.
 * Franklin: 0% – Few hours of fame
 * Gert: 0% – Obvious
 * Harvey: 15% – Central America/Mexico wasn't crying that this was destructive, so this is obvious.
 * Irene: 91% – Moderate to severe damage over a wide area, with the US having massive floods, this will get the boot. This is not gonna be an Karl... Irene is much, much more widespread and people actually know the extend of the damage.
 * Jose: 0% – 24 hours of fame

The Great Seer has spoken: It's been a crazy season so far. I have a feeling we're just getting started. -- SkyFury 03:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene: 30% - 22 deaths and $223 million in damage is nothing to sneeze at, I don't care what Mexico says. I had no idea it was that bad. If that was in the US, we'd have it up around 50% at least. Those are definately retirement-worthy numbers. Do I think it will be retired? No. But the numbers certainly qualify.
 * Bret: 2% - Sure made for a lousy weekend on Abaco Island, but otherwise bupkiss. Most of Bret's effects were beneficial.
 * Cindy: 0% - Look, a shooting star! Quick everybody make a wish!
 * Don: 1% - Per my usual custom, I never give a storm that affected land a 0% chance. I was really hoping to be able to make a Godfather reference with this one, but that's kinda hard to do with a storm that fell flat on its face. Though I guess it's fair to say that TS Don sleeps with the fishes ;)
 * Emily: 10% - It did kill five people. I'm still confused about Emily. It will go down as one of the most troublesome storms in history from a forecasting persepective. SMH...
 * Franklin: 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Gert: 0% - I get the feeling there were a few surfers on Bermuda who were sorely disappointed.
 * Harvey: 8% - This one could've been a lot worse. I think a lot of people were worried about another Matthew.
 * Irene: 85% - Wow, what a storm. As we feared, this has turned into another Floyd/Isabel with devastating inland flooding. But as bad as it was, it could've been a whole lot worse. It would've been catastrophic had it hit North Carolina as a Cat 3 and NYC as a Cat 2, as originally predicted. This was really setting up to be a worst case scenario with the size of the storm, track right over NYC, and astronomical tides. Thank God it didn't happen. I don't think I'll ever forget seeing Times Square, Grand Central Station, and Atlantic City's casinos completely and utterly vacant. It really was post apocalyptic. I was waiting for Will Smith and the zombies to jump out at any minute. Incredible. I hope you guys took it all in, because we may never see another storm like that in our lifetimes. I thought every single elected official at the state and local level did an exemplary job preparing for this storm. I don't think they could've handled it better. It had been almost three years since a big storm hit the US and there was plenty of room for complacency, but all the mayors and governors handled this with the utmost seriousness and professionalism. It took a lot of balls for Mayor Bloomberg and Governor Christie to order those evacuations. And apart from North Carolina, these were places that never have to deal with stuff like this. For a bunch of them, this was their first serious threat from a hurricane in decades. I was blown away by how well they handled it. Their actions saved lives. Hats off.
 * Jose: 0% - *facepalm*
 * Katia: 4% - Hey, it was fun to watch. A major hurricane for a change. And the British Isles took a beating from this. Four people did die.
 * Lee: 25% - Flooded the rest of the eastern US. Death toll is up to 17 now. As feared, this got pretty ugly. It brought a crapload of rain to places that couldn't take another drop. It exascerbated flooding in the wake of Irene. It's a cruel irony that Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama were drowning in 15 inches of rain while neighboring Texas is in a historic drought with huge wildfires destroying homes. All Lee did for them was fan the flames.
 * Maria: 5% - Well this ended up getting pretty interesting, especially for Newfoundland, who've had a rather lively past couple of seasons. But this was no Igor. It was certainly blustery, probably exhilarating down on the south coast, but they came out of it unscathed.
 * Nate: 10% - Another disappointment. They gave the kids in Veracruz the day off from school for this. That said, at least five people have died in flooding and ten oil rig workers are missing. Yikes. Hence the 10%, which could be conservative if these early reports turn out to be true.
 * Ophelia: 5% - Wow that was fun! What an amazing storm! Who'd have thought as we watched Ophelia sputter and die that it would come roaring back to become the strongest storm of the season. Just a remarkable turnaround. And yet another scare for Newfoundland, this has been a crazy season for them. All that said, damage was fortunately minimal.
 * Philippe: 1% - Yet another tenacious storm. This has really become a major subplot of this season: tough, tenacious storms. Maria, Ophelia and Philippe all survived brutal shear conditions to become significant hurricanes. That's impressive. That 1%, btw, is simply out of respect for what the storm was able to accomplish.
 * To be continued...

Anything but Irene 0 percent, Irene at 60 percent (while I've substracted some 25 percent due to the fact that the basin is running out names commencing with an I) --88.102.101.245 11:49, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Here's what I have:


 * Arlene: 20%. The deaths and damages were something notable, but just not enough to cut through Mexico's reputation.


 * Bret: 1%. Little rain, not much else.


 * Cindy: 0%. Hello, speedy!


 * Don: 1%. To say the least, this was probably the first time a tropical storm not making landfall was a disappointment to the people there. Texas needed the rain.


 * Emily: 15%. It was quite aggravating to track and did do some damage. The thing that makes me wonder is that the worst hit may have been Martinique...the same Martinique that got Klaus off the list. However, Emily, fortunately, was no Klaus.


 * Franklin: 0%. While it did rain on Bermuda to a tiny degree, who would remember this one?


 * Gert: 0%. Yet another near-hit with no effects.


 * Harvey: 1%. Yet another minor effects storm.


 * Irene: 85%. It was leading up to this. Major damage, high death toll, and although it wasn't as bad as predicted, it was still bad enough. It's time for a 12-year-late retirement.


 * Jose: -5%. The dead-ringer of Tropical Storm Kay from the 2004 Pacific hurricane season and Tropical Storm Ernesto of the 2000 Atlantic season. It was such a bomb of a storm that I can't even give it a 0.

That's all for now! Jake52 22:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Arlene: 10%. It affected Mexico, but that's it.

Bret: 1%. Didn't do anything

Cindy: 0%. Hey Fishie!

Don: 1%. It hit near Baffin Bay dieing out quickly, but no retirement

Emily: 10%. No major damage along the path

Franklin: 0%. See Cindy

Gert: 1%. Near hit on Bermuda, but missed.

Harvey: 10%. It made landfall twice, but no severe damage

Irene: 80%. A damaging storm, though not as worse than was expected, but a good chance

Jose: 5%. Unexpected formation, a near hit on Bermuda, but not huge damage

Katia: 0%. Reached Cat. 4 status, but no

Lee: 30%. Lee might be a player, damage was mostly from floods.

Maria: 10%. Not a really bad hit, and not another Igor happening.

Nate: 1%. Fizzled quickly, and did not do anything bad in Mexico.

Ophelia: 10%. No major effects, but has a chance

Philippe: 1%. See Cindy's and Gert's section

OWEN2011 02:17, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

In general, here is a summary of what's going and what's not:

Gone: Irene 

Possibly so: Arlene, Emily, Lee 

Possibly not: Harvey, Maria, Nate, Ophelia 

Staying: Bret, Cindy, Don, Franklin, Gert, Jose, Katia, Philippe

Hurricane Andrew (444)' 02:52, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

Although we have had a rather active season thus far this year, the ACE sucks, TBH, and we have had only one bad storm thus far in 2011, so we're better than where we were in previous years. At this time in 2004, we had Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne was in the making, and at this time in 2005 we had Dennis, Emily, Katrina, and Rita was going to be forming as well. We had Gustav and Ike done with at this time in 2008 and Andrew was long past done at this time in 1992. I do not use past seasons as a prescedent of what's to come; for example, although we have a chance of seeing a Wilma, Mitch, Paloma, or Lenny-like storm in October and November, I don't directly count on it, since no two seasons are exactly alike. We got much luckier this year than we probrably ever could've been in the history of ever. Irene could have easily been a 100 billion-dollar storm if it hit NC as a cat 3 and NYC as a cat 2 like it was originally predicted. The timing of Irene's landfall couldn't have been any worse. The tides were at their peaks when it made landfall. New England suffered record August rainfall so the ground couldn't hold any more water, maximizing flood potential. The only thing that saved us was a patch of dry air that was over South Carolina and Georgia at the time Irene was doing her ERC. That dry air weakened her to a C1 when it made landfall in North Carolina, saving the coast from what could've been the worst natural disaster in U.S. history. Although Irene was nowhere close to being a Katrina, 10 billion in damage and over 50 deaths(mostly in the U.S) is still nothing to be taken lightly. Irene has a very likely chance of being retired, not 100% though, and it ended a very long drought on the east coast, the longest ever known between any two hurricanes there. Ryan1000 10:51, September 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * Arlene - 15% - Did lots of damage in Veracruz but not enough to be retired.


 * Bert - 2% - Never approached land.


 * Cindy - 0% - Hardly ever approached land.


 * Don - 1% - Made landfall in Texas and then BOOM, it was gone.


 * Emily - 5% - Some damage in the Caribbean but not enough.


 * Franklin - 0% - Who?


 * Gert - 2% - Brushed Bermuda.


 * Harvey - 5% - It did make landfall in Mexico, but not as a very strong storm.


 * IRENE - 90% - Billions of damage along the East Coast, loads of deaths. Certainly one to watch next spring.


 * Jose - 1% - Waste of time.


 * Katia - 10% - Hardly any damage.


 * Lee - 25% - Loads of flooding along the South coast and the eastern coast and 20 deaths.


 * Maria - 5% - Another version of Igor? No. Maria will never get retired.


 * Nate - 0% - Just dissipated as soon as it made landfall. I'll see you in 2017, Nate.


 * Ophelia - 10% - Brushed Bermuda, followed same track as Maria. It will never get retired.


 * Philippe - 0% - Only thing it actually did was last long and hit Iceland as a very weak extratrop. storm.

Kiewii 09:19, October 5, 2011 (UTC)

In total, it looks like around one storm will be retired (~1.25). There is around a 95% chance that at least one storm will be retired. Dree12 20:14, October 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arlene 5%: Mexico has seen much worse damage than this, and deaths aren't the only indicator for retirement. It may have come as a surprise in late June, but I would be seriously surprised if Arlene left.
 * Bret ~0%: No damage
 * Cindy ~0%: No severe damage
 * Don ≤1%: Barely any damage, and was more benificial than harmful
 * Emily 5%: It's not the US or Mexico that got hit worst, but Emily wasn't a Klaus.
 * Franklin ~0%: No damage to speak of
 * Gert ≤1%: Bermuda has seen much, much, much worse.
 * Harvey ~0%: This is Mexico we're talking about.
 * Irene  90%: The US hasn't retired a hurricane since Ike, and although Irene wasn't as bad as Ike, 50 deaths and 7 billion of damage in the US alone isn't something to laugh at. If the US passes, the Caribbeen won't; there were much too many countries affected. More likely than not, Irene's going away for 30 years.
 * Jose ~0%: No severe damage
 * Katia 5%: Even England has seen much worse, and they aren't going to retire an extratropical storm
 * Lee 5%: People will disagree with this, but the only tropical storm retired by the US was Allison, and Lee was no Allison.
 * Maria 5%: It was Canada which was hit, but Newfoundland has seen much worse.
 * Nate ≤1%: Caused more panic than damage.
 * Ophelia 10%: Not worse than Maria in Newfoundland, but since Dominica might seek retirement as well, the percentage is increased a little.
 * Philippe ~0%: Surprising longetivity, but no impact.
 * Rina: 5% (Operational): It's already looking bad for some places, but I have a feeling we're not done with Rina yet.


 * I'm bored tonight, so I might as well post my predictions for this year for every storm.
 * Arlene; 5% - Arlene wasn't a horrible enough storm for Mexico to get itself off the list.
 * Bret; 1% - Well he impacted land.
 * Cindy; 0% - Survived over really cold waters for a long time, even got to near hurricane strength in them..but that doesn't earn retirement.
 * Don; 1% - I'm kind enough to give a percent for land impacts. :P
 * Emily; 5% - Hanna didn't get retired, Emily did way less damage and deaths so I doubt it has any significant chance. Preliminary damage reports aren't out yet, but I'm not assuming they were too serious.
 * Franklin; 0% - No.
 * Gert; 0% - An afternoon thunderstorm never earned retirement. Gert stayed far enough out to sea to impact Bermuda in a bad way.
 * Harvey; 1% - Harvey did minimal damage, and it seems very unlikely that he will be retired.
 * Irene; 98% - Last year everyone gave 99% chances to Karl..so I'll go with 98% so I don't look so foolish. But in reality, there are so many countries/states that have decent reasons to retire this name. 10bill in damage is no laughing matter, neither is horrible flooding in Puerto Rico and Vermont and extensive wind damage in the Bahamas. Oh and she also burnt down Richard Bransons private mansion on a private island, so the UK has a reason for retirement too. XD
 * Jose; 0% - No.
 * Katia; 2% - She killed people, and one of those people could've been the president of the WMO..so you can never say never here. Damage in Europe was bad, but not catastrophic.
 * Lee; 50% - I know a lot of people will disagree with me here. But if the 4 billion dollar damage estimates in Pennsylvania are confirmed to be from Lee then I see no reason that he shouldn't be retired. It all depends on if that flooding was directly from Lee or if it was from the front that absorbed Lee.
 * Maria; 1% - The reaction from the media here was nothing close to what they said about Igor, so I'm doubtful if this even has a 1% chance.
 * Nate; 1% - He pulled a Don at landfall in Mexico (he dissipated the second the center met land), so I'm assuming that damages were minimal at worst.
 * Ophelia; 40% - Some might call me crazy here too, but remember that Ophelia caused a huge amount of flooding damage in a French territory..and France is the most liberal country for retirements out there. Ophelia also caused enough problems in Canada too. Though this storm ended up a lot better than it could have been if it was a few hundred miles west when it was RIing. She would've reached her peak intensity right over Bermuda and could've been worse than Fabian.
 * Philippe; 0% - The oddest storm of the year, but never affected land.
 * And there you go. My thoughts on retirements this year. Yqt1001 04:29, October 8, 2011 (UTC)

Very Mid-season forecasts
Why call it very mid-season forecasts? Because most mid-seasoners do it in early August. Well, welcome to the true mid season, the beginning of September (almost!). As we near the second half and the most active half, we already have a taste of what the first half did. Here is my prediction: 17 total systems, 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. My ACE calculations lead me to believe a near normal statistic, around the 70-110 range. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:49, August 13, 2011 (UTC)

My prediction was 18 tropical cyclones, 17 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and 1 Category 5.

Now, doing it like CSU does it, we have 6 tropical cyclones, 6 tropical storms, 0 hurricanes, 0 major hurricanes, 0 Category 5's, and a ACE of 10. My post - August 13 activity is 12 tropical cyclones, 11 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 majors, 1 Category 5, and a ACE of 140.

For more information, go to my blog:

Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:09, August 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * With the activity so far, we might challenge 2010's total of 19 named storms. If we keep spitting out storms at this rate into November, and double the rate in September, there should be no reason we don't reach 20 storms. I still stick with 5 majors, only because the basin is warm and little shear..as the SAL slowly lifts, the CV season will probably be huge...so far the pattern is looking like most CV storms will go into the US too. Yqt1001 16:21, August 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Although we may have a higher chance of destruction, we can never accurately forecast damages or retirements; last year almost permanently taught me that fact. I don't truly know if we will have our streak end this year, but I hope it does, every year without a landfall just makes it worse. However, I must agree that at the rate we are going, we indeed have a descent shot at catching up to 2005, possibly 2010 and definitely 2004 and 2008(in numbers). Ryan1000 01:29, August 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * See much more detailed and more precise information, see my forecast blog. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:08, August 15, 2011 (UTC)

Irene seems likely to hit the USA as a hurricane...or will it be down to TS strength (and dodge the Outer Banks) before a New England landfall?(Yesterday NHC maps had it hit NYC,but the track keeps moving east).--12.144.5.2 19:26, August 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * A re-Bob or re-Carol seems more likely than anything as of now, but the 20-year drought for New England is probrably going to end this Saturday. Irene may end the drought there, but elsewhere in the U.S, we're rather silent; although the 5.8 earthquake shook up a large chunk of the eastern seaboard, overall damage was insevere. Irene won't be that way. Keep your eyes out for her over the next few days. Ryan1000 22:55, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * BTW, for further information, I made my official forecasts for worldwide activity of 2011 in my blog. You can view them here. Ryan1000 18:10, September 3, 2011 (UTC)


 * After thinking about my "mid season forecasts", I have come up with them finally. ATL: 24-26 depressions, 22-24 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes, 0-2 category 5 hurricanes The reason for this is the fact that many models are predicting that we will get to atleast Rina before the end of September and most of those storms forming in areas very conducive for development. The dry air will probably remain heavy for the time being but I can see it dropping down low enough for a decent amount of hurricanes to develop this year. EPac (including CPac): 10-12 depressions, 9-11 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes and 0-1 category 5 hurricanes The reason for this is that quite a bit of signs point to a shut down of the EPac starting around now. I won't say that Greg will be the last named storm, but the models don't show much more activity in the EPac for a while. WPac: 37-43 depressions, 20-25 named storms, 10-15 typhoons, 5-7 super typhoons I'm not as good at predicting the WPac as I am for the ATL, so I had to leave the margins large and I don't have much to prove my thoughts. NWIO: 6-8 depressions, 2-4 deep depressions, 1-3 named cyclones, 0-1 severe/super cyclones The first peak of the season has already passed. This could pull a 2010 AHS and become a record season during the second peak though. :P I would do SHem, but I don't think too much will come from it, maybe 1 MH strength cyclone and a few named storms. Yqt1001 00:48, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

US Hurricane Drought
Yes, it's Eric! SkyFury is back for another season by popular demand. I am currently enjoying my retirement from Wikipedia but am happy to rejoin the forums for the hurricane season. I normally get back to the Wiki for the new season by July, but this summer has been really busy for me and, despite the activity, am only just now returning. I have received messages of distress about the state of affairs in the forums, but from what I can tell, this Wiki has done nothing but get better in my absence. Ryan1000, I know I have some missed messages from you (one from forever ago) and I intend to address those tomorrow, when it's not 2:30 in the morning lol. Tonight I come, as I usually do, bearing historical food for thought. A hurricane has not made landfall in the US since Ike in 2008. If a hurricane doesn't hit the US before September 2, it will be the longest drought since 1980-1983, and that's only if Iwa's brush of Hawaii in 1982 is discounted. If one doesn't hit before September 21, it will be the longest drought since the Civil War. -- SkyFury 06:33, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well then, welcome back here! (I'm a new user BTW, so I don't think you know me). I also want to add the fact that we have gone 5 years, 9 months, 3 weeks, and 2 days (i.e. six years!!!) since a major hit the U.S (unless you count Ike). If this continues until October 24, that's a record major hurricane drought. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:20, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Welcome back! (I'm relatively new too, but you probably have a hint of a clue about me since I was around for a bit of 2010) The forums have really calmed down now and are stable ever since darren retired. He comes back everynow and then and downcasts YE and the EPac, but his surprise attacks aren't often. Ryan is doing a good job operating the forums now. :) What I'm curious about is your thoughts on this season. So far we have had a bunch of weak storms..one after each other at record pace. When do you think the season will get it's first major? When will the season start kicking out hurricanes? If ever? Yqt1001 13:30, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * 93L (future Harvey) could easily end that drought; from what I'm reading of the HWRF model available on the WunderMap, it's forecasting Harvey to have a pressure of 933–935 mbar as it scrapes Cuba and heads just north of the Yucatan. What happens after that is anyone's guess, but judging from the re-curvature shown in that model, Texas could easily see a direct hit from Harvey. They need the rain, but no major hurricanes, please! --HurricaneMaker99 14:14, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * And better late than never; welcome back, Eric :) --HurricaneMaker99 20:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, welcome back SkyFury! Since I just came on the forums, let me introduce myself. I am CobraStrike from Austin, Texas and I am 11 years old. Anyways, coincidentally, as this section on the US Hurricane Drought continues, Rick Knabb of the Weather Channel published an article on what he felt were the top 5 most overdue cities. They are:
 * 5. Tampa - Not one hurricane since the costliest hurricane (inflation adjusted) of 1921 has directly affected Tampa. They were lucky in 2004 to not get hit by a small Charley, which went a little further south.
 * 4. Savannah - Not a major hurricane has affected Savannah, Georgia since 1893. Even the National Hurricane Center calls Georgia hurricanes sleeping giants.
 * 3. New York City - The large population makes it vulnurable, and the number of "close calls" makes people think the Big Apple is a hurricane shield.
 * 2. San Diego - Not since 1858.
 * 1. Honolulu - Has never been affected by a hurricane, yet has had close calls.
 * CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 16:21, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, what's baffling to me a bit more is our East coast streak in the U.S. We have not seen a major hurricane in the U.S. since October 24, 2005, discounting Ike of 2008. We usually see an east coast hurricane in the U.S. once every two years, but we have gone for 6 years without an east coast hurricane in 2011, since Katrina in 2005. That is the longest streak I can find in the history of ever. A close runner-up was an almost from Ginger of 1971 to David of 1979, but Hurricane Belle hit near NYC as a minor hurricane in August 1976. The closest runner-up for no Major hurricanes streak in the U.S. was, well, the civil war, almost since record-keeping began. I didn't think Hurricane Wiki would get so out of control ever since you left Eric, but the good news is you're back now. And CobraStrike, the biggest overdue city in the United States is actually Miami, Florida. Despite having a history of over, say thousands of major hurricanes in the past 150 years, the last time Miami was devastated by a monster hurricane was in 1926(Andrew of 1992 missed them a teeny bit to the south). If Miami was hit by a monster category 5 hurricane today, it would cause over 150 billion in damage because Miami has buit up so much since Andrew, and after Miami comes NYC, then Houston(New Orleans already got devastated), then Tampa/Savannah, and to a lesser extent places like Virginia Beach, Virginia and Atlantic City, New Jersy, perhaps Jacksonville or Charelston as well. The only epically devastating cyclone thus far this year was Yasi, which kicked the living sh!t out of Queensland last February, and became one of the worst storms in Australia's history, let alone the costliest discounting inflation. Innisfail, Mission Beach, and Tully were wiped off of the face of the earth from Yasi's massive storm surge, estimated by some to be higher than even Katrina's. It's a good thing that that 155 mph, 300 mile wide monster didn't hit a bigger city like Townsville or Brisbane, and fortunately it caused only one (indirect) death. Ryan1000 16:57, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Yqt, I agree, the lack of power displayed by the storms thus far in 2011 is surprising. This is the latest we have gone without a hurricane since 2006, and most of the seasons that wait this late have been down years. That said, we've had seven names scratched off the list, which is a damn lot, but not one of them has been a hurricane. 2002 waited until the 'G' storm (Gustav) on September 11 before it had its first hurricane. No season in the naming era (since 1950) has gone this far down the list still hurricane-less. I remember the 2003 EPAC season went all the way down to Ignacio before they had a hurricane. They did not have a major hurricane that year for the first time in forever. It's really difficult to say when the season will start showing some force. Emily was a big freaking mystery. The models were clueless. It should've turned north and threatened the US as at least a borderline hurricane but instead it stalled off Hispaniola and died. That was bizarre. Yeah Ryan, beginning in 2004, hurricanes started trending noticably to the south through the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. That in part explains the lack of any in the Carolinas and northward, but that doesn't explain the lack of any Florida impacts. Only four hurricanes (officially) have made landfall in the US since 2005, all of them along the western Gulf Coast, three in Texas and one in Louisiana. I will point out that Ernesto in 2006 and Hanna in 2008, which hit virtually the same spot in southern North Carolina, were so close to hurricane strength at landfall that the difference is negligible. However, you are right, the US eastern seaboard is in a major drought. The Atlantic coast has not had a major tropical event since Jeanne in 2004 (although Katrina, despite its lower intensity, did knock Florida around pretty good). North of Florida, there has not been a significant hurricane event since Isabel in 2003. Even more incredibly, there has not been a major event in New England in 20 years (Bob, 1991). It's like the Florida Panhandle's big drought before Eloise in 1975. And don't get me started on New York City. In my opinion, that's another Katrina waiting to happen. If they get so much as a Cat. 2 coming as far west as Brooklyn, they're in deep shit. -- SkyFury 23:14, August 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * But it's almost the opposite in the East Pacific somehow. Eric, we have had 6 hurricanes thus far in this year's EPac season, counting Greg's rescent upgrade, and if we get Fernanda to become a hurricane, it will mark the first time in the history of EVER that the first 7 storms there became hurricanes. The ACE in this year's EPac season has already jumped ahead of where last year ended at. The ACE per storm thus far is about 6.8(and counting) in EPac. 1992 had a total ACE per storm of about 11 in the EPac; 1990's ACE/storm was a little higher. Heck, at this rate, if Fernanda becomes a 'cane, all of this year's EPac storms will be hurricanes. In the case of the activity stuff Eric, Danielle wasn't even named at this time last year and keep in mind 2010 AHS still got to 19 storms, 12 canes, and 5 majors(yet somehow no U.S. hurricanes), so don't count out on this season yet, since the heart of 2011 is still yet to come. Now with the overdue places. Yes, I do agree with you a major hurricane, let alone a 100 mph or stronger storm, hitting NYC would be a horrible disaster for the U.S, but as I mentioned, a category 5 hurricane hitting Miami would be the worst-case scenario for destruction in the U.S. They have had a longer drought than any other major city in the U.S. except for NYC. The last, and to date, most severe major hurricane to directly hit Miami was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. True Miami has had a lot of near-close calls since then but no direct hits by any hurricanes of the intensity of the 1926 storm. Andrew, as I mentioned above, missed them by only 10 or 20 miles to the south, but it missed them far enough not to directly hit them. I can't imagine what a hurricane like the 1926 hurricane would do to Miami today. It would be a disaster without parallell in U.S. history. NYC would be severely damaged by a 115-125 mph major hurricane today, but Miami would be butt f**ked by a 150-160 mph category 4-5 monster. Although there are many overdue places in the U.S, Miami takes the cake. I'm not doomcasting here, but i'm pointing out some very important facts about how lucky we really have gotten since the monster(s) of '04, '05, and '08. This year could just be the last straw... Ryan1000 05:01, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm not saying it wouldn't be really bad, but Miami is a well-prepared city and an Category 5 taking direct aim at a major city is a one in a million shot. Only three have made landfall anywhere in the United States in the past 160 years. Granted, if a major city was going to take a Cat 5 on the chin, it would probably be Miami, but the odds are still astronomical. That said, I am by no means dismissing the threat. A Cat 4 similar to the 1926 storm would be devastating. However, I would not expect a high death toll. The government and emergency personnel in south Florida have an organized and well-rehearsed evacuation plan. I would not expect another Rita. The damage would be extremely severe. Miami Beach would probably be all but wiped out and Coral Gables would be laid to waste. But I wouldn't expect a death toll much higher than Andrew. New York City on the other hand is a nightmare. The entire metro area is extremely low lying and sits right at the vertex of a concave coast. A 5-8 ft surge in Florida would be a 10-12 ft surge in NYC. An 8 ft surge hit the coast of Brooklyn during the 1938 hurricane despite the fact that the storm made landfall over 40 miles away. Like 15-20 million people live in Manhattan and Brooklyn alone. Even if you only had to evacuate a third of them, it would still be a logistical nightmare. Where would you put them all? Where do you send them? There are no direct routes away from ground zero. Brooklyn and Queens are on an island. Emergency managers up there have no experience with hurricanes. They'd have to figure it out as they went. The skyscrapers of Manhattan would act to funnel the storm surge, making it even worse. Anyone still on the streets when the storm hits is dead. A Category 3 or greater storm coming through Jamaica Bay and up through the city could kill over 1,000 people and do over $100 billion in damage. The economic cost would be at least twice that. Wall Street would be shut down for weeks, possibly months. The floors of the stock exchange would be flooded and gutted. Subways would be flooded and shorted out. It would take weeks just to pump the water out, let alone get them running again. Streets would be flooded or clogged with debris. Who knows how long it would take for the water to recede. The biggest commercial port in the US would be shut down. The economic capital of the world would be crippled. Even a Category 3, let alone a Category 4, could make 9/11 look like a traffic accident. -- SkyFury 19:08, August 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * The only thing I was saying is that a category 5 hurricane hardly leaves anything behind in it's wake. A category 3 hurricane causes severe damage. A category 5 causes catastrophic damage. Mark my words, and mark them good, there is no city on the entire gulf and east coast that is ready for a category 5 hurricane, and Miami definitely isn't. You can prepare for a category 5, but can never be ready for a category 5. What you're saying is NYC is so much more vulnerable to hurricanes that a cat 3 hitting them would be worse than a category 5 hitting Miami, ect, and I can completly understand that. I'm smart enough to know better, I know NYC is a tucked back coastal town, I know there are 15 million people in the 300-square mile city and I know evacuating all of those people would be next to impossible in a day or less, especially if a hurricane is approaching them at 60 miles an hour, like the 1938 hurricane did. New England hurricanes start to rocket in forward speed once they pass the Carolinas, and they can arrive to a landfall in hours, which can make evacuation decisions critical if they are made too early in places that aren't hit. What i'm saying is category 3 hurricanes destroy many structures in their path, but category 5 hurricanes destroy everything in their path, and only a handfull of cat 5's haven't been retired in the NAtl. Cleo was one, which was a rare fish cat. 5, Edith was another, which struck an unpopulated part of Honduras known as cabo gracias a dios(cape thank god), before hitting the U.S. as a cat 2, and lastly, Emily of '05, which, despite causing widespread destruction across the Caribbean and Mexico, didn't become retired. I personally don't think Ethel of 1960 really was a cat 5, but if it really was, it only tapped the gulf as a minor TS. What I was saying is a category 5 hurricane destroying 90-100% of all the buildings in Miami might do more damage than a category 3 destroying 60-80% of NYC's buildings simply because they leave behind hardly nothing, not to mention a cat 5 in Miami could also devastate a gulf coast city like Houston, Tampa, New Orleans, Corpus Christi, or Mobile(no offense Eric). The big difference between Miami and NYC is how the people think about hurricanes. People in NYC say "you know, we don't get hurricanes here", and people in Miami say "Ah, we get hurricanes all the time; this one won't be any different from the others". Neither of them think right; the people there need to get ready every hurricane season. Every season is a gamble, with millions of lives at risk. Anyways, I don't want to do any doomcasting or argue over which hurricane would be worse since it's obvious neither scenario is good. Back to the seasonal activity, Eric, we have had 8 storms but no hurricanes thus far. I asked you earlier on your talk page what you thought 2011 would be like for the NAtl, and even though the NAtl hasn't produced anything catastrophic as of yet, worldwide we have had one(Yasi), as I mentioned earlier, it was Australia's costliest cyclone in history excluding inflation and second costliest counting inflation behind Tracy. Since we have had no hurricanes out of our first 8 storms thus far in 2011 AHS, does this season remind you of 2007, or do you not think we will have so many hurricanes ths year altogether? If the 16-storm forecast average remains true for the rest of 2011, we have to have 8 consecutive hurricanes starting with Irene to get the forecast numbers. I think we will only have 4-6 hurricanes, assuming the total numbers remain 16-17 storms. But it all depends. Ryan1000 01:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * While a lot of storms so far in 2011 have fizzled, the season as a whole has been very active. We've already had nine storms and there's still a week of August left. The GFS brings two new storms off the west coast of Africa in the coming days, one of which is already a medium risk area. We could very easily be on the 'L' storm by the beginning of September. This makes me nervous about what September holds. Conditions overall in the Atlantic have greatly improved and we're already seeing the danger of that with Irene, which could turn out to be a very serious event. The Bermuda High has been much weaker the past couple of years than it was from 2004-2009. However if significant ridging could build ahead of one of these African waves, which seem to be coming in bunches, we could very easily see a major Caribbean hurricane. So while we may not have as many hurricanes as originally forecast, the forecast for total activity is still looking good. And remember, it only takes one bad storm to make it a bad season (see Andrew). -- SkyFury 05:29, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * In the case of Irene, it has a good chance to make landfall in the U.S. as at least a 100 mph C2, but that depends on if it continues to rapidly intensify into a category 4 or 5(more probable for a 4), and then ends the streak for east coast hurricanes. There is no gurantee the eastern seaboard will reccieve a category 3 landfall, especially if it misses the outer banks, but it is more than likely it will be at least a category 2 when it does make landfall. I would be surprised if Irene doesn't make it to a 135-140 mph C4 today. However, yes Eric, given the fact we haven't had our first hurricane until Irene came along, we might not have as many hurricanes as we were expected to see; i'd expect about 6-7 in the entire season. However, as you said, it can just take one(perhaps Irene) to make 2011 a notable season. Although the Bermuda high has been weaker than normal, it certainly won't be enough right now, especially for Irene, it has a pretty good chance to not miss the entire east coast. Although Wilma is considered to remain the most rescent U.S. major, I don't want to exclude Ike of 2008 since it was the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history and 5th deadliest hurricane to hit the U.S. since 1950. Only Diane, Audrey, Agnes, and Katrina were deadlier since then, so in my book, Irene would be the first in 3 years. Ryan1000 12:38, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * What's more concerning is the Texas-Southeast US drought. Since puny Don couldn't bust the dry air, it will likely take a major hurricane landfall to relieve the drought, and that could be devastating considering 32C+ Gulf SSTs. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:55, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The folks down there can use a break after Humberto, Dolly, Gustav, and Ike of 2007-08. Florida might need a wake-up call though because ever since '04 and '05, they have seen virtually nothing. Everywhere else they can stay the hell away from! Ryan1000 21:55, August 26, 2011 (UTC)

The drought is over
Irene has made landfall near Cape Lookout, NC as a strong (85/90 mph) Category 1. --HurricaneMaker99 11:59, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

So, we finally have a hurricane after 3 years, and a east coast one in 6 years. This hurricane drought was the longest one since 1999-2002, and the east coast 'cane drought was a record drought that has finally ended. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:32, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not looking good for the folks in New England... Due to Irene's rapid forward speed, it's forecast to directly pass over NYC from the south, so damage from her could still be very severe. Ryan1000 15:22, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The pattern this year favours US landfalls, so i can only wonder how drought busting htis year will be. Only time will tell I guss. Yqt1001 22:01, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * This hurricane drought took a spot in 2nd for the longest drought, only behind the CIVIL WAR. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:16, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I just did calculations, and it turns out the time between Ike's landfall and Irene's landfall is 1077 days! 1077!!! That number is incredible. And CS, the US hurricane drought that happened between Hurricane Allen in 1980 and Hurricane Alicia in 1983 was longer than this drought, but shorter than the Civil War drought (The 1980-1983 absence totaled 1103 days). Hurricane Andrew (444) 22:36, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * That depends if you do or don't count Iwa of 1982, which struck Hawaii in November. And the longest east coast streak was technically 1861-1869, if you want to go that far back. The longest hurricane streak? There are a number of close calls. Irene 99 to Lili 2002, Andrew 1992 to Erin 1995, Ike to Irene, and since the Civil war, the record in question is from November 2, 1861 to September 13, 1865. That record still stands as of today. Ryan1000 22:42, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * If I were to pick at the Civil War drought, I would think that there was a hurricane landfalling on the US in that time frame, because the Americans were to busy at the Civil War to make certain that a hurricane did/did not make landfall. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:57, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * We couldn't have made that drought so, it was either a quiet perod in NAtl or just a really good run of luck. Ryan1000 23:01, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The hurricane drought is over, but the major hurricane drought is not. Suprise11 16:18, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * The major hurricane drought is not even three years yet becasue as far as I'm concerned, Ike was a major hurricane. I'll buy that Gustav wasn't, if close, but Ike was. -- SkyFury 23:02, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't really tell the difference between a normal U.S. MH and a ginormous C2 which was one of the worst storms ever known. We went 5 years without one from Bret 1999 to Charley 2004(Unless you count Isabel), and since Wilma of 2005, we certainly had Ike and Gustav, and Irene most rescently, but although none of them were major hurricanes when they hit the U.S, they certainly had the impacts of them. We still have a chance to see an "official" U.S. MH in this year since 2011 is far from over, but Irene was the only wake-up call we really needed. Ryan1000 05:46, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * The major hurricane drought is not even three years yet becasue as far as I'm concerned, Ike was a major hurricane. I'll buy that Gustav wasn't, if close, but Ike was. -- SkyFury 23:02, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't really tell the difference between a normal U.S. MH and a ginormous C2 which was one of the worst storms ever known. We went 5 years without one from Bret 1999 to Charley 2004(Unless you count Isabel), and since Wilma of 2005, we certainly had Ike and Gustav, and Irene most rescently, but although none of them were major hurricanes when they hit the U.S, they certainly had the impacts of them. We still have a chance to see an "official" U.S. MH in this year since 2011 is far from over, but Irene was the only wake-up call we really needed. Ryan1000 05:46, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Replacement names
Again, no harm in starting this early like in the WPAC. Do you guys have replacement names in mind for Irene (and/or Arlene/Emily)?

These are mine:

Female "I" names: Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:23, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Isa
 * Izzy
 * Ivy
 * Ila
 * Ilsa
 * Iman
 * Iphigenia
 * Idelia


 * What about Inga, Irma, or Ilsa? --HurricaneMaker99 03:38, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is also Irah (which was used years ago), Ilona, and Isla (pronouncd EYE-lah). Some strange "I" names are upon us... Check out Babynames.com, and look at the "I" names! Once we get past the aforementioned names, we are in for even weirder ones, as it looks like the "I" storm will always be at the peak of the season, and will commonly be a large offender. <font face= "Candara"><font color="6666CC">~TDI19!!! <font color="FF0000">...To...<font color="99CCFF">...From... 04:13, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Iva was formerly an EPac mystery retirement, perhaps due to the fact it was confusing with Iwa, which itself became retired due to it's destruction in Hawaii in 1982. My personal pick for Irene, if it even does become retired, would be Irma. And Arlene and Emily weren't bad enough for the places they hit, so I won't offer any replacements for them. Ryan1000 06:49, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).
 * Check out http://www.momswhothink.com/baby-girl-names/baby-girl-names-i.html for more names. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC).

Here are some more: 70.171.254.210 00:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ilaria
 * Imelda
 * Immacolata
 * Ines
 * Italia
 * Ilene
 * Ivory
 * Ivonette
 * Ivonne
 * Idoya
 * Ivette
 * Izumi
 * Iva
 * Ioanna
 * Irena

Ines seems unlikely due to Inez, which was formerly retired, and Irena seems a little too close to Irene IMO, but if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, both of which are 1 letter-off names, I won't rule it out. Italia seems unlikely as well since it's Spanish for Italy, a country's name(Israel replaced Ismael, a former EPac retiree, but it was never used because Israel felt offended from that name choice and requested it be removed). Again, my personal pick would be Irma. But we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 05:28, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Remember, Ryan, the statute of limitations on retired names is 30 years. Fabian (which replaced Frederic in 1979) was replaced with Fred in 2003. To follow up Hurricane Maker, I like Inga, but it may be too close to Ingrid, which is already on the list. Irma and Ilsa are also good options. Ivana is an option. I also like Imogen and Ileane but the latter may be too close to Ileana, which is in use in EPAC. Iva and Ivy are two other English options. If I had to pick a favorite, it would probably be either Inga or Ileane, which is phonetically the closest. -- SkyFury 22:54, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, the Federic>Fabian>Fred (mess up) from list 1 doesn't gurantee that the gap must be 30 years(especially since that was the only time it ever happened). Things can be different with replacement names. As I mentioned above, if the WMO can replace Rita with Rina, or Stan with Sean, which are both 1-letter off names from the retired name in question, it can't be said that the replacement name must be much different from the retiree in question, and the fact Ileana is in use in the EPac doesn't at all mean that Ileane can't be used as a replacement for Irene because Frank was used in last year's PHS and Franklin, a longer version of Frank and the name in place of Floyd, was used earlier this year in NAtl. So variants of names can be used in both ATL and EPac and replacement names can be one or two letters off from the retiree in question and still be acceptable by the requesting country. If you would rather stay away from variants of in-use names in either basin, names that are close to the retiree, or variants of former retirees, that's fine, but based on the facts, there is no gurantee a name can't be chosen under those conditions. When we requested Isabel of 2003, we send the names Ida, Ina, and Ivy as possible replacements of Isabel. The WMO selected Ida which was used two years ago, so given that they have two more backup "I" names, I wouldn't be surprised if Ina or Ivy is chosen. When a country requests a name to be removed, they send two or three possible names to replace the offending name. If it's different from any other name not in use and not formerly retired, the WMO just goes for it, I guess... My personal pick for Irene, as I mentioned earlier, would be Irma. Ryan1000 03:13, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I was referring to your dismissal of Ines/Inez as an option because it was retired in 1966. Just because it was retired in 1966 doesn't mean it can't be reassigned now that 45 years have passed. The generally accepted statute of limitations is 30 years and so far this has been generally followed, though Fred definately pushed it at exactly 30 years. I agree with you that just because a name is close to one that is retired or in use in another basin does not mean that it can't be used. If it's close to one in use in the Atlantic, however, that might be different. I think Inga is far enough away from Ingrid that it could be used, though it would make more sense as a replacement for Ingrid itself. If I had to pick a favorite, it would be Ileane. I think it flows well, though I imagine it might look a little different spraypainted on plywood. -- SkyFury 06:25, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, as I mentioned earlier, the Frederic>Fabian>Fred trio from list 1 doesn't gurantee the gap must be 30 years. Heck, Rita of 2005 was one of the worst U.S. storms ever and it was replaced with Rina. The difference between Rita and Rina is just about the same as Frederic and Fred IMO. I personally also try to stay away from variations of former retirees, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Ileane wouldn't be bad, given Frank and Franklin are on both lists, there is no gurantee variants of EPac names can't be used in NAtl either. We truly don't know what will happen with replacement names, but I am baffled by some of the WMO's picks. Dean's was the best example of WTF. Fred's choice was baffling, but Dean's replacement name was the worst excuse for a replacement name in the history of ever. Felix and Noel just made it worse... (I'm not reminding you of how silly the French are). Ryan1000 09:22, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

I don´t know why you say Dorian is a bad name for replacement because I really like it and maybe Mexico send that name to replace Dean because in there Dorian is a popular name Allanjeffs 20:58, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">No, it was chosen because somebody important is an Oscar Wilde fan. Ryan, don't get me started on the French, I think you know how I feel about that. Some of the replacement names recently have been absolutely ridiculous. Pretty soon people won't be able to listen to the tropical update without giggling. "Here's Tropical Storm Dorian..." *hysterical laughter*. Dorian was the worst, but Fernand? As far as I'm concerned, that's a typo. Fernando would've been the perfect choice, especially given the Spanish theme and that's the name that I acknowledge. Katia was a little silly but at least it makes sense with the Russian theme of Katrina. Rina sounds like something bad that happens to your kidneys. Gonzalo replacing Gustav was dumb. Isaias is kind of cool. And they redeemed themselves last year with Ian and Tobias, though why Matthew wasn't retired is beyond me, and I'm still confused about Alex and Karl. Apparently they weren't as bad as initially reported. Hanna is still a crime. -- SkyFury 21:24, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Okay, end of that. I won't discuss anymore about the replacement name fails with the WMO. Pisses me off... If any name would be more descent for Gustav, it would have been Gary IMO. Ian should have been Ike's replacement. Why Matthew wasn't retired is no mystery to me because after all the reports I went through with Mexico and Nicaragua after Matthew, it couldn't have done 2.6 billion in damage. That must be a false number. And Mexico hasn't retired many other storms in the past Eric. Alex and Karl are two. Others include Emily of 2005(massive damage on the Yucatan and the gulf coast of Mexico), Liza of 1976(the worst crime in EPac history; as many as 950 deaths in Mexico and no retirement), along with Tara and Tico. Paul of 1982 was also destructive and deadly, but it caused most of it's destruction as a precursor wave and not a named tropical cyclone. Allan, I believe Dean was nominated by Martinique or Guadelupe, not Mexico. Dean did more damage in the lesser antillies than it did in the greater antillies because those smaller lesser islands get little warning of the storm, wheras Jamacia and Mexico have very advanced warning systems for tropical cyclones so they minimize destruction and/or deaths despite the storm's intensity. Agatha of last year is an utter mystery as well... Alma on the other hand, did become retired, but because Alma means "Soul" in Spanish, the reason behind her retirement after 2008 may have been the fact the name itself was offensive and was retired for that reason rather than being destructive. That's my opinion. Mexico is probrably more conservative for retirements than any other country except Haiti(well, they almost never retire names anyway... remember Tomas was nominated by St. Lucia last year). Ryan1000 22:14, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Matthew killed 143 people, Ryan. I couldn't care less what the damage figure is, the death toll is staggering. Death toll > property damage in my book. And also, I think you missed my point earlier. I never said the gap must be 30 years. I said 30 years was generally accepted as an unwritten policy. I never said that limit was a strict stipulation, but it's a courtesy generally adhered to. The only reason I even brought it up in the first place was because you said that Inez/Ines wasn't an option because it had been retired in 1966. I said just because it was retired 45 years ago doesn't mean we can't use it now. You spent a whole lot of time preaching to the choir. You're right, just because a replacement name is similar doesn't mean it can't be used. It's generally frowned upon though to replace a retired name with a shortened form of the same name, like replacing Michael with Mike for example. Or Frederic with Fred, though again, that was not done directly and it satisfied the 30 year statute of limitations. These aren't necessarily rules, just etiquettes. -- SkyFury 03:48, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

I know there isn't a requirement for the gap to be 30 years, but if there are exeptions to the "rule", then we can't say those exeptions won't repeat themselves. I'm not all upset over chosing close names to former retirees, but to some extent(like Ines/Inez), yes. If you also don't like that, that's fine. I also agree with you on the fact deaths should weigh more than damage, but things aren't always that way for retired names. My personal opinion on retired names is dependent on how many problems a storm causes for an entire country as a whole. Hurricane Irene this year cut off transportation, left millions of people without power, and caused extensive damage over a widespread area of the eastern seaboard. Some areas described it as their worst storm in many years(not refering to Darren's opinion there). So Irene has a very good chance of being retired based on that. Worldwide, the only true shoe-in is Yasi of the SPac, but it obliterated entire towns in Quensland from it's massive storm surge and caused many problems for all of Australia. It just has to be retired. Ryan1000 04:45, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Hall of Fame
Hurricane Maker has expressed interest in me resurrecting my Hurricane Hall of Fame. I started it several years ago as just a fun little project, but then I brought it onto Wikipedia and it kind of took off. However it has been dormant since I left Wikipedia in 2010. There has not been an official class since 2008. I always wanted to expand my voter pool and our little tight knit group here on the forums seems like the perfect choice. I was thinking of adding the HOF ballot to our yearly betting pools page. See the link for some background and the rules and guidelines I laid out (years ago...I recently upped the cost limits for automatic nomination and induction). The way it normally worked was that I would make a list of ten nominees from which five would be selected, but I'm definately open to suggestions. I've also developed a seperate Historical Electorate (akin to Cooperstown's Historical Committee) for storms prior to 1875. In the HE, three inductees are selected from a list of ten nominees. What do you guys think? -- SkyFury 23:50, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm interested. At the end of this year, we may add a HOF ballot to the end of this year's betting pools in all basins. I don't know how the selection round will go then, voting process? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:27, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it would be a good idea, considering the fact that many people may express interest. Hurricane Andrew (444) 14:57, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Great idea, CS.10L.NONAME 20:50, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * My question is, if we're going to do this as an end-of-the-year thing, then does that have an impact on the "two seasons old" criterion for inclusion? Also, perhaps voters could submit their own nominations? --HurricaneMaker99 21:00, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * But then again this is the Hurricane Wikia. If we decide to keep the "two year seasons old" criterion, then voting pools can still happen every year, just that hurricanes will only be inducted once 2 seasons old. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:02, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don't worry. There's lots of hurricanes before 2009.10L.NONAME 22:55, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * The ones I personally want inducted are from '07 and '08; I asked in case anyone would have wanted to nominate any post-'09 storms. --HurricaneMaker99 22:58, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Should this be moved to a forum of it's own? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:07, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * What, the section or a new forum for the HOF? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:08, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think this should be it's own forum, like the favorite storms of 2011 forum I made earlier this year. The Worldwide activity discussion forum on the TC BasinNAV is for discussing worldwide activity of 2011. I also made one for 2012 as well, but it's made ahead of time. IMO Tip is no. 1 in the hall of Fame. Ryan1000 23:22, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think a separate forum page for this is a better option than the section. We had a huge debate over the same thing related to the WAD being in the EPac forum. The HoH isn't Atlantic only so it shouldn't be in the Atlantic forum. Yqt1001 00:41, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Based on the current consensus...I'll go ahead and make a forum for the HoH and move this. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:45, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * I would let SkyFury make it. It's his thing anyways. Yqt1001 00:49, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well I just made it, sorry, but SkyFury can go ahead and edit it to his liking. The forum is here. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:06, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

I've posted a bunch of information if you guys want to check it out. -- SkyFury 03:36, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Post Season Changes
It's not even close to post season yet, but during this lull in activity the NHC has been starting the TCRs already. The TCR for Cindy is out and she isn't as much of a fail as you guys thought. Winds up to 70mph, pressure down to 994mb and they said that Cindy was very close to a hurricane for nearly 8 hours and that any improvements in the eye and Cindy would've been the seasons first hurricane. So while we wait for the other TCRs, what do you guys think could be other changes? I personally think that one of the TS's (either Arlene, Gert or Harvey) will be upgraded to a hurricane and the third time Katia became a tropical storm will be a bit earlier and the upgrade back to a hurricane after that will be earlier also. Yqt1001 19:01, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * They aready finished Adrian.10Q.INVEST 19:54, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

I didn't expect that upgrade on Cindy, but it still spun fish nevertheless and sucked in ACE. We may change the face of this year with Ophelia, which is a story yet to come. Ryan1000 20:04, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I know this isn't really on topic, but did you guys still want to do the Hall of Fame thing at the end of the season. I added a bunch of info to the new forum page but everybody mysteriously lost interest, I guess because TC activity picked up. I never heard what people thought. -- SkyFury 20:24, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm ok with what you said and would still love to do it at the end of this season. I guess everyone is fine and is eagerly waiting until it starts. Yqt1001 20:49, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm actually kind of excited about it. Come November, we're going to really have to start talking about exactly what we want to do and how we want to do it. I have final exams the week of December 4, so we're probably looking at the final voting not taking place until the second or third week of December. Under the current expanded system, we're looking at voting being up to a three week affair, so, if we want to get this done by Christmas, we may want to go ahead and do the preliminary voting before the Thanksgiving holiday, given the spectre of exams for many of us come the last week of Nov/first week of Dec. Life comes first and I want a very relaxed atmosphere about this thing, so that's something I'll be thinking about come mid-October. But we've got plenty of time to think about it. -- SkyFury 06:49, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eugene is done too.10Q.INVEST 21:06, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Ok so after looking over all the microwave imagery for the TS's this year I have given each a percentage that they will be upgraded to a hurricane and why.
 * Arlene; 80% - There wasn't any microwave images for Arlene at peak strength BUT over land she had an eye better defined than Maria ever did so I would be surprised if she doesn't get upgraded.
 * Bret; 30% - He had a well defined eye at one point, but at that time he was in a weakening phase so I don't think he ever got the wind requirement for hurricane status.
 * Don; 0% - No.
 * Emily; 0% - No.
 * Franklin; 0% - No.
 * Gert; 20% - After looking at the microwave images of Gert at peak strength, she never completed more than a half of her eyewall. She probably could be upgraded to 65mph, but I doubt hurricane status.
 * Harvey; 40% - There wasn't any images of Harvey for the few hours before landfall, however the last image before landfall has Harvey with 3/4th of an eyewall, but the image of when Harvey made landfall shows very little in a form of a defined eye. Not even close to what Arlene's eye looked like over land.
 * Jose; 0% - No.
 * Lee; 0% - Never even had a defined center according to microwave imagery.
 * Nate; 0% - He had what appeared to be half an eyewall at peak intensity, but that eyewall was gone when the dry air got to him and he fell apart.

I'll post about the others when the season draws to a close. Yqt1001 20:49, October 3, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I think Irene will be upped to 125 mph and I'd keep everyone else where they are in category. Yqt, it is true Arlene got a well-defined eye, but while it was over land. Fay of 2008 also developed a clear and well-defined eye over land, but it never became upgraded to a hurricane, and I would keep every other storm of 2011 where they are, possibly some slight wind or pressure changes, but no new hurricanes or named storms. It is possible a few invests might have briefly been depressions, but I'm not calling on any post-season upgrades yet. Ryan1000 20:35, October 17, 2011 (UTC)</p
 * Well, I think it will be upgraded because the last microwave image before the one with the eye over land was nearly 9 hours before it. That microwave image also showed about 5/8 of an eyewall already formed. As you know, a lot can happen in 9 hours, so I still think it has a decent chance. Yqt1001 21:02, October 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure, but we'll have to wait and see. BTW, does anyone still feel like doing the hall of fame thing? Ever since Philippe and Ophelia dissipated, this forum has kind of lost it's activity, and although there is still a chance of a few more named storms, I think it's fair to say 2011 is closing up; well, the SHem will begin and NIO has one last chance this November/late October. Most of this year has passed, and any potential post-season upgrades we will have in NAtl will likely be minor anyways. Ryan1000 21:51, October 17, 2011 (UTC)

Replacement names (part 2)
This section has not been discussed in a while. Ever since Irene, we have Lee (I don't know if he'll go though).

Here are my revised replacement names:

Lee - Lance, Laurence, Len, Leonard, Li, Lincoln (IDK about this), Louis, Luke

Irene - IIsa, Isa, Izzy, Ivy, Iva, Iman, Iphegenia, Ivana, Ixchel

Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:39, October 9, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">If the destruction in Dominica was severe enough for Ophelia, it could be retired, but the thing is, Dominica is much different from Martinique/Guadeloupe in terms of their track record(because it's not a French territory, but rather it's own nation), so it probrably won't be a Klaus, not to mention it was largely a remnant low when it did affect the lesser antillies anyway. Ryan1000 01:59, October 10, 2011 (UTC)