Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season/September

AOI:Over Africa
This isn't up on the TWO yet, but both the GFS and Euro are consistent at developing something near northern Cape Verde about a week from now, and following in Gaston's footsteps. Could be something to keep our eyes on in the long run. Ryan1000 16:26, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * This has a good shot at being Hermine or Ian depending on whether 99L/91L develop. Maybe it will be a hurricane. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM GASTON FORM! 22:03, August 26, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am starting to think this will be Hermine - as 99L is the most annoying invest I have ever tracked, and at this point, I am starting to doubt development from that. This could have a shot at development over the next week or so. In the very long run, I hope it does not end up threatening anyone. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:31, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO at 0/30. Unlike Gaston, this wave is expected to take a more westward path, and unlike 99L, it has more model support. Could be interesting down the road... ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM HERMINE FORM! 17:48, August 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * I've checked the latest run of the GFS and Euro and both models take this directly towards the eastern seabord of the U.S. in a week and a half to 2 weeks as a fairly powerful storm. GFS takes this into Savannah as a major hurricane, and the Euro makes it a major hurricane just north of the Bahamas, and likely eventually hitting the east coast. This may be a bad storm down the road...assuming 99L can become Hermine in the GoM, this'll be Ian. Ryan1000 12:57, August 28, 2016 (UTC)


 * Up to 0/60. This is a strong tropical wave already, and looks to become a dangerous storm. 99L might just be the distraction while this system actually becomes "the big one". However, it's still many days out, so that isn't certain. The Atlantic sure is ramping up this year! ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 14:59, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/50, but it's still likely to become something big over the open Atlantic down the road. Assuming TD's 8 and 9 both become Hermine and Ian, this would be Julia instead. Ryan1000 21:26, August 28, 2016 (UTC)
 * This is looking quite threatening down the road - we should keep our eyes out. I am really hoping this is no re-Hugo or Isabel like models suggest. Hopefully, it is just a fishspinning hurricane, that maybe even repeats its 2010 predecessor! ;) ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  22:19, August 28, 2016 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
And now it's been invested. Still at 0/50 though, but this is definitely something to watch this and next week. Ryan1000 04:58, August 30, 2016 (UTC)


 * For some odd reason, it's down to 0/40. It could be Julia assuming the two TD's that are taking too long to become named, eventually receive the names "Hermine" and "Ian". This is still something to look out over the long run. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:27, August 31, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/30 right now. The wave has dry air in its path to deal with. But it could develop once it reaches the Lesser Antilles by Monday. I hope it doesn't pull a 99L/Hermine and take weeks to develop... ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:59, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually it might be better for it to intensify sooner, so it's more likely to go north and then east and not hit land. The GFS and Euro are thoroughly underwhelmed by this system, they don't make it anything at all even after it passes the Lessers. Ryan1000 03:12, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20, but still could become something down the road. I've grouped this with September in the event it forms down the road; if it doesn't we can move it to the August archive. Ryan1000 12:37, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * At 10/20, and not looking likely to develop into much until beyond the 5-day window. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:46, September 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * It is now up to 20/30...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 13:29, September 3, 2016 (UTC)

Still at 20/30, but NHC says conditions in the Carribean Sea aren't forecast to be conducive. Ian may have to wait... ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:31, September 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unless 92L does what Hermine did and become tropical after leaving the Caribbean. Although in order for that to happen, 92L would have to enter the Gulf of Mexico, not up the US east coast nor away from the US & Mexico altogether. But invests are tricky to forecast sometimes, so we'll just have to see what 92L does...Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:51, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/20. It doesn't look like 92L is going to develop unless it somehow makes it to the Gulf of Mexico. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 17:06, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now at 0/20. However, the NHC's wording now notes that conditions could become more favorable when it gets near the Yucatan Peninsula. 92L's been looking pretty organized for a while, actually. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:35, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I see 92L potentially becoming Ian by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula or even the GOM. It's going to take a while to develop, similar to 99L/Hermine. Hopefully it isn't anything destructive in the long run. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:47, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * What the?! It already dropped off the TWO... I guess conditions became TOO unfavorable. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:49, September 7, 2016 (UTC)

AOI.Straits of Florida
A new Area of Invest has popped up in the Straits of Florida. At 10/10 like 93L is, and it isn't expected to develop. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wow. This is up to 40/40 now!  ~ Bob   <font face="Arial">Page <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 18:17, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Welp didn't expect this jump in percentage, but even if it somehow does manage to become a depression, upper-level winds aren't very conducive for development. Ryan1000 20:29, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/30 and I would be surprised to see it develop. It if did develop, it might be a weaker version of Hermine. ~  <font face="Impact"> Steve    Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:26, September 10, 2016 (UTC)

92L.INVEST (2nd time)
I have moved this section to the discussion of invest 92L because this was in fact considered to be the same system as 92L and so was called invest 92L. This looked like a tropical depression earlier, but looks like it wasn't able to hang on long enough to be classified. It still has a small chance, but I doubt it. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 03:35, September 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * 10/10 and just forecast to weaken. Sorry, no TD here. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:31, September 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * poof* and it's off the TWO. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve    Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:24, September 11, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Tropical Wave
Another tropical wave has been added to the TWO. 0/20, though not seeing much model support in the near term. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 17:06, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/30. Considering it's lack of model support I'd be surprised to see stronger than a TS from this though. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 18:36, September 5, 2016 (UTC)


 * EURO now develops this into a minimal TS in about 5 days. This is much more likely to be a Fiona part 2 rather than a long-track Cape Verde hurricane, but nonetheless, another Atlantic storm would be nice. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 18:45, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * I would hate to see a Fiona 2.0 or even an epic fail. Hopefully this wave develops into a hurricane despite the lack of model support. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:50, September 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * 10/60. This looks likely to become Ian this weekend. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 14:55, September 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * 20/70, this is looking prime to become Ian, but it'll be following in Gaston's footsteps and out to sea the faster it develops. Ryan1000 19:25, September 6, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'm glad it does appear to be a fishspinner. I just don't want anything devastating coming from future Ian. Hopefully we see a hurricane from the wave - it's got the potential I think. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:51, September 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/60, but still expected to develop sometime next week. If it stays weak as a wave like Hermine did, it may eventually make it to the northern Antilles or the gulf/eastern U.S. down the road. Ryan1000 00:16, September 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * I still see this potentially becoming Ian in the long run, but it might still take a while to develop. Hopefully it doesn't pull a Hermine and form after a really long wait.  If that happens it might be a threat to the Gulf region. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:25, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/80. Here comes Ian! Nearly all models develop this storm now, but the intensity varies from hurricane strength on the GFS and CMC to a minimal tropical storm on the EURO. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 21:40, September 9, 2016 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
And now it's been invested. Up to 30/70. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * 70/90, this is probably becoming Ian in the next day or two. Ryan1000 23:42, September 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Ian is about to come. Thank god models are forecasting a hurricane and it doesn't appear to be any future land threat (so far...). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:24, September 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * Hopefully, he doesn't continue the "'I' curse".  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 18:39, September 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * 80/90 and might be a TD tomorrow. This shouldn't continue the "I" curse - it will likely only go out to sea. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:34, September 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Down to 70/80 and now just has a small window for development. Upper-level winds will become less conducive for 94L in a couple days, so it might unfortunately only be a fail name-stealer. :( Hopefully if it does develop, it remains a TD. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:28, September 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 80/80. I hope this forms soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:43, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Sorry Steve but if the center becomes better defined we have Ian as it already have ts winds, something the NHC note.Allanjeffs 04:24, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Not a TD or TS right now, since 09:00 UTC has passed and NHC didn't issue an advisory. Apparently there are 2 centers, the dominant one at the north near the deep convection and the other at the south. But if Colin was considered tropical at that state, I don't see how this isn't. However, at this rate, this will be sheared to bits before it becomes anything. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:14, September 12, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ian
It's here, 35 kts/1007 mbar, but it's only forecast to peak at 50 kts before becoming extratropical in a few days. :/ Fingers crossed it defies the forecast and becomes a hurricane, the NHC forecast track is exactly the kind of trajectory (middle of nowhere and out to sea) we'd want a hurricane to take... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:21, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's facing 20 knots of (rising) shear, it's moving over cooler waters, and the circulation is exposed on the SW side of the thunderstorm activity. Hate to break it to you Dylan, but Ian is probably going to be a fail. If that happens, it would be the second year in a row in which the "I" name wasn't a hurricane. That hasn't been pulled off since 1988-89. Ryan1000 16:52, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah I'm not really holding my breath tbh. Post-2010 Atlantic has generally been rather impotent (bar occasional storms like Joaquin, Ophelia, Danny, Sandy and Gaston, as well as the inactive-but-high-quality 2014 season as a whole). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:45, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * And Irene. Also, it should be noted that the past two Atlantic hurricane seasons had their strongest storm in October, and the NW Caribbean is fairly warm compared to the rest of the Atlantic this year, so if a wave manages to make it there next month we could still have a bad storm in store for us. Ryan1000 18:10, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, overall the Atlantic hasn't been too notable since 2012, with the exception of a few storms. Ian likely won't do anything comparing to his two predecessors. So that's good, considering what Earl and Hermine have done.  Leeboy100 2001-2016 Never forget 21:03, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Ian isn't likely to become anything significant, I'm thinking this will probably peak 50-60 mph at most because of the shear. However, 95L could be a candidate for Julia. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:20, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * I expect Ian to live two more days, tops, before he gets ripped apart by the 50-60 knot shear to his north. Ryan1000 03:01, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * Might strength to a 60 to 65mph storm because of an anticylcone moving closer to its center. Not expecting a hurricane and wind shear might kill it. Its up to 45mph winds, a fail but not a complete fail nonetheless still its nothing like its predecesors Ivan and Igor. Allanjeffs 04:23, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * The "I" curse has almost certainly been broken. Ian is unlikely to become a hurricane as the shear has completely exposed the circulation center, with the nearest convection more than 120 n mi away to the NE (per NHC discussion). ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:30, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * The shear is starting to destroy Ian and will demolish the TS in the future. I guess the newly used name can't be used for a hurricane this year. :( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:14, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * 50 kts, 998 mbar, but expected to become post-tropical. See you in 2022, Ian. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:51, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian
Down and out. I admit Ian lasted longer than I expected it to, but it still didn't harm land. Ryan1000 17:06, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Near Leeward Islands
At 10/20 and conditions aren't expected to be favorable for much development. I'll be so surprised if it develops. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:25, September 9, 2016 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Surprisingly enough, this became invested before the system behind it. Still not expected to develop though. Ryan1000 12:36, September 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yep, nothing coming here. Julia will have to come later assuming 94L is a future TC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:36, September 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Still on the TWO at 10/10, but is heading for Florida and will probably dissipate there. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:16, September 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think everyone spoke too soon. According to the NHC, they are considering issuing advisories on a tropical cyclone later today, and it is pretty close to becoming one. Looks like it's making a last minute run to become Tropical Storm Julia. Owen 22:51, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/70. We could see TD 11 or TS Julia at 11PM EDT. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:52, September 13, 2016 (UTC)


 * We have Julia. I think. AL, 93, 2016091400,, BEST, 0, 299N, 815W, 35, 1010, TS 66.87.148.103 00:44, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yes it will be Julia, ATCF should be revisit as this was clearly a td since 2am and a ts since 2pm. It might be weak but some models are doing this make a loop and getting it out of Georgia to the Atlantic  Ocean.  Might strength a little bit if it happens. Allanjeffs 00:52, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julia
Advisories coming in this hour.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:14, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * 10-4-1. Owen 02:16, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * WHAT THE ACTUAL HECK?! I guess "Julia" has to be used for a weakling this year, except that it will bring a bunch of impacts to the southeast. The name would have been better suited for a strong and decent hurricane instead, IMO. I never expected this to form!!! :O ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:11, September 14, 2016 (UTC)
 * Wha....this thing actually formed while it was over Florida? I've never seen a TS do that before. Not unheard of but still extremely rare. Meh, either way, Julia won't be too bad, it'll bring some rain showers but likely nothing too serious. Ryan1000 03:37, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Julia
Really, are you serious???????????? It HAD to weaken as soon as it hit the ocean. It is now forecast to dissipate soon. Really, Julia, really?????????... Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:32, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Julia (2nd time)
Became a tropical storm again. BeamOfSunlight (talk) 21:49, September 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Meh, it's...stalling offshore now. Rip currents are still a threat though. Ryan1000 22:41, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Julia (2nd time)
Back down to a TD again. Could become post-tropical soon, as Julia has lost pretty much all her deep convection lately. Ryan1000 03:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Didn't really expect Julia to persist this long, but it's now currently weakening. I believe impacts it caused weren't too bad. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:41, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Winds are down to 25 kt; 1010 mbar. This storm should get some acknowledgement for being the first storm ever in the Atlantic to form over Florida, and the first to form over land since 1988. I think Julia might be able to become a tropical storm again. T  G  15:11, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Been a while, but I've watched Julia closely. What a strange storm! First it forms over land, and then completely confounds the NHC by not going even close to it's forecast track. New convection just covered up the center, and if it persists, it could allow Julia to survive longer and finally not be just a weak TS. As long as nobody's getting killed, I love storms that are unpredictable. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:38, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Julia is still hanging on, and has been kept at 30 mph/1010 mbar as of latest advisory. The NHC has noted that Julia is keeping enough shower activity to retain tropical depression status for now. I really like unpredictable storms too, since they are interesting and 'cause they could frustrate forecasters. :P I also liked how Julia became the first tropical cyclone on record to form over Florida. It is just unusual for TCs to form over land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:58, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Julia
It is FINALLY dead. It was seriously retaining TD status for SO LONG. Time to focus on Karl's threat to Bermuda... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:42, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * A bit surprised by this, as it happened when there was a possibility that Julia could restrengthen. It must have gotten bored. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 07:10, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested and on the TWO at 10/20, new wave southeast of Cape Verde looks interesting. Models take this on a more westward path than Ian, and EURO thinks this will develop into a hurricane. Will be interesting to see what comes from this invest. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:20, September 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS doesn't do much with this, though the Euro makes this a hurricane down the road, but like Gaston, turning north and out to sea. Both models also develop a tropical storm near Cape Verde behind this thing next week, and that would bring us to Karl if this becomes Julia. Ryan1000 02:47, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Up to 50% for 5 days, but like many a storm this season, it's expected to turn north of west down the road and eventually head out to sea. Ryan1000 12:16, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * As of the latest TWO, it's 40/60; future Karl may have to follow a similar path to storms such as Gaston in the future. I really hope this becomes a hurricane as long as it remains away from land. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:17, September 14, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve
Here comes potential future Karl... forecast to briefly reach 35 kts before weakening back to a depression, and the NHC discussion notes the possibility of degeneration into a tropical wave. Forecast to re-strengthen a tiny bit near the end of the forecast period, but with the middle of the forecast period being so grim, I'm not holding my breath. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:56, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl-to-be actually might be a threat to the U.S. in the long run if it weakens or dies out temporarily, like how the wave that became Hermine took a while to form but it eventually hit Florida as a hurricane. But it all depends on how conditions near the Bahamas and Florida are by that time. Still way too early to tell if this will be a fish. Ryan1000 19:27, September 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * This is still not named. I have a an if-then conditional statement about TD#12: If this storm doesn't get named now, then it will stay unnamed until this coming Monday. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 10:36, September 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * According to ATCF, we have Karl. AL, 12, 2016091600,, BEST, 0, 178N, 319W, 40, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 140, 80, 0, 80, 1011, 160, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TWELVE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, In fact, we could have had Karl at the 5pm advisory, as the RBT was retroactively updated to make this a 35-kt TS at 18z. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:04, September 16, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Karl
And we have Karl. As of the latest advisory, 40 kts and 1005 millibars. NHC sees Karl to remain a tropical storm until Tuesday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:47, September 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS and Euro eventually take this to Bermuda in the long run, the latter of which makes Karl a cat 4 by then, though the system behind Karl (possibly Lisa) they don't do much at all with. Ryan1000 11:02, September 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC's taking Karl to hurricane strength by the end of the forecast with Bermuda being threatened over the long run. I hope it becomes something strong as long as it steers clear of Bermuda or any other landmass. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:43, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Models, including the GFS and ECMWF, continue to show a hurricane-force system over Bermuda next week. According to the NHC, dry air isn't expected to be much of a problem now. Bermuda should start getting prepared for some impact. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:30, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl is struggling for now, but soon we could se a nice hurricane. Bermuda should be prepared for impacts after Gonzalo, but hopefully it misses Bermuda if it chooses to become a strong hurricane. ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 16:41, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The GFS takes Karl just north of the small island as a cat 1 storm in 216 hours, but the latest run of the Euro takes Karl just south of Bermuda as a 923 mbar category 5 monster by that time. If Karl takes the average of the two models it could be a fairly powerful hurricane when it comes within range of the island a week from now or so. However, Bermuda is probably the only land that could be hit by Karl down the road. It probably won't hit anywhere else; none of the models even remotely make Karl a danger to the Lesser Antilles, and we have another trough to protect the U.S. East Coast from a landfall, just like we did with Gaston. That just leaves the question of whether Karl will eventually be a re-Fabian, hopefully its not. Ryan1000 21:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The Euro run you mention just scares me. :O This could end up as one of the most destructive TC's in Bermudian history if that occurred. Hopefully, Karl strengthens a lot BUT  weakens significantly upon reaching Bermuda. The name "Karl" just sounds like a strong name to me and a strong storm would be amazing, as long as Bermuda is spared... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:02, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The NHC noted in their latest forecast discussion that the ridge of high pressure north of Karl may strengthen when Karl encounters favorable enough conditions to become a hurricane, and they've taken the forecast track a little bit further west with that, but it's still more likely than not that Karl will turn north and then east before hitting the U.S. Also, if it does head farther west late in the forecast period, that means that Karl may also miss Bermuda on its way out to sea, which would be a best-case scenario regarding impacts. Ryan1000 01:41, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The GFS has been making Karl an extremely powerful hurricane near Bermuda from 219-288 hours out. I hope people in Bermuda stay safe next week! T  G  20:00, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * Karl is still a weak tropical storm - at 40 mph and 1006 mbars as of the most recent advisory. This is not good... if that panned out Bermuda might get one of their most destructive storms on record. I REALLY hope Bermuda residents are preparing for the hurricane. Karl, leave the island alone! I hope it tracks west of Bermuda, or they are in danger... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:47, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * The global models have lately been taking Karl farther west but then passing due east and thus south of Bermuda. That could be good news, but a lot of things could change, and Karl has really been struggling with its intensity over the past few days due to a somewhat stable atmosphere surrounding it and an upper level low shearing off some of its convection. This could change after 3 days, and NHC expects Karl to become a 100 mph category 2 storm at the end of the forecast period, but even that might be conservative given the very favorable environment of that area. Ryan1000 11:00, September 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * Karl's strength is still the same as my previous post. This is struggling to intensify, probably due to unfavorable conditions. Bermuda should still prepare themselves regardless. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:49, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

I don't want to fully let my guard down yet, but thankfully the NHC track has been recurving Karl before it reaches Bermuda over the past few advisories, so maybe Karl won't be as bad as it was earlier anticipated, though the 18Z GFS run still takes Karl fairly close to the island as a hurricane and it's not out of the question they could be hit. It all depends on how fast and when Karl decides to become a hurricane. The sooner, the stronger it'll be, but also the more likely it'll recurve before hitting Bermuda. Ryan1000 02:36, September 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl is still struggling with shear, and has weakened from 40 knots back to 35 knots. This may not be good, as being weaker, it could take a more westerly track and recurve late. In that case, Bermuda would be more likely to be hit. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:11, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Karl
Down to 30 kt. NHC has no idea whether a closed circulation exists or not. Said they won't be surprised if Karl has dissipated.--182.58.125.235 09:48, September 21, 2016 (UTC)


 * Karl has been struggling with unfavorable conditions a lot more than I thought it would at this point, if Karl dies or remains this weak, it might avoid the trough to its north and continue to head due west towards Florida and the Bahamas instead of recurve north and out to sea. Ryan1000 11:18, September 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Woah, this is struggling more than I expected. It might not go as far west as Ryan's scenario (IMO) so Bermuda may still need to watch out. It might only go that far west if Karl became a remnant low. Remaining weak would put the island more at risk unless it is weak for even longer, when it could pass to the west of the island and go a little closer to the USA. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:23, September 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * It looks like the ridge of high pressure is still pulling Karl north despite its weakened intensity, but it's still expected to recurve before reaching Bermuda, not even as a cat 1 by then. Dr. Masters says Karl is one of only two Atlantic storms (the other being Dennis '81) to remain 45 mph or weaker for the first 5 days of its lifetime. Ryan1000 12:03, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Karl (2nd time)
Back up to a 35 kt/1005 mbar TS! Now let's see if Karl can finally strengthen beyond 40 kts after more than 8 days of existence :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:53, September 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * There we go, 50 kts/990 mbar, decent strength at last. Hopefully Karl can get to at least Cat 2 intensity, as long as it doesn't do so at Bermuda's expense. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:04, September 23, 2016 (UTC)
 * Finally, at last! Karl has took so long to get stronger, but it has finally done so - 65 mph/990 mbar. The storm has fought on and is now doing one last stunt. Bermuda is still going to get tropical storm impacts before Karl very likely strengthens to a hurricane before going extratropical. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:43, September 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think it's likely with comparing the strength of the two, the effects of Karl on Bermuda may be comparable to something like Fay of 2014. It looks like Karl is getting his act together and I expect a hurricane later tonight or tomorrow. Owen 02:17, September 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * Jesus. Karl is still at 55 kts and has even lost some organization recently, according to NHC. At this point Karl might not even reach hurricane strength until it loses tropical characteristics. If we don't get a Hurricane Karl out of this, I will officially write Karl off as the laziest storm of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:11, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, Karl did not become a hurricane (at least operationally). NHC now expects Karl to become a strong post-tropical system on Sunday. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:19, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

Well Dylan, there was a lot of unabating shear over Karl so it doesn't surprise me that it didn't become as strong as it could've been, but you do make a point on your last statement; if this Karl doesn't become a hurricane while heading out to sea, it'll be the first storm named Karl to not do so. Ryan1000 06:56, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl
And it will be the first Karl not to do so.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  15:46, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * Karl was a 70 mph fail, the first since Beryl in 2012. Maybe it will somehow get upgraded to a hurricane in post-analysis, but Karl was such a disappointing storm. Maybe Matthew will be make up for it. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM MATTHEW FORM! 20:36, September 25, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am really hating the fact that Karl never became a hurricane. It was forecast to do so earlier, but I guess it did not want to even try. The storm was a prodigious disappointment - seriously, why wouldn't you even try?! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  21:39, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

AOI:Behind TD 12
This is behind TD 12, and could become something right near Africa before conditions become unfavorable later on. Ryan1000 22:44, September 15, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now at 30/50 currently and will be nothing more than a weakling if it develops. I wouldn't like to see the name "Lisa" being stolen by a weakling, so it would be best for this to peak at a TD at most or even try to surprise everyone by becoming a hurricane (extremely doubtful though). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:46, September 17, 2016 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
30/60. Models show at most a weak tropical storm being absorbed by Karl. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:27, September 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * 40/70. I definitely think we can get Lisa out of this one. T  G  15:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * The AOI text no longer mentions any unfavorable conditions - but we still shouldn't rule those conditions out in the long run. If it is Lisa, I do not want to see a weak fail. If it does end up entering unfavorable conditions, a TD is enough for me. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:06, September 18, 2016 (UTC)
 * The invest is now up to 50/80. But, bad news - the NHC is again mentioning unfavorable conditions. This might only be a weak failure. >:( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:50, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * 70/80. Hopefully this remains a TD and doesn't become a name-stealer, since conditions are going to become unfavourable tomorrow. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:14, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * We have td 13 and its expect to be a 60mph storm so not a complete failure. I am expecting a peak of 65mph because of its large size, Anyways It looks poised to become Lisa. We will see though if it can strength further if it can reduce its size.Allanjeffs 21:31, September 19, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
Now upgraded according to Allanjeffs' post and the NHC. Depression Thirteen is expected to become Lisa, and I hope it does not end up stealing a name. It might reach more than 60 mph if we get some luck. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:54, September 19, 2016 (UTC)


 * Even if it becomes named, it'll likely die before hitting any land areas, discounting Cabo Verde. The last time Lisa was used in 2010, it formed in a similar area to this one and it became a hurricane despite being forecast not to do so, hopefully Lisa-to-be can pull that off this time around too. Ryan1000 02:40, September 20, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lisa
Now named. Strength as of 11:00 AM (AST): 40 mph; 1007 mbar. T G  17:25, September 20, 2016 (UTC)


 * Went up to 45/1004 with the latest advisory (a little late though). Ryan1000 22:09, September 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * Peaked at 45 kts/1002 mbar earlier but has since gone back down to 40/1004. Pending whatever happens to this and Karl, only five of this season's twelve storms so far have strengthened beyond 45 kts, one of which only just barely did so. That's pathetic! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:58, September 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, at least it's not 2013, that year was so awful regarding storm intensity, it was painful to track the storms that year. And even if Lisa and/or Karl don't become hurricanes, there's still October, and some of the models have been forecasting something nasty to pop up near the start of October. The last few runs of the GFS in particular are making something big in the Caribbean around 200 hours, we should still keep our eyes out for a potentially destructive late-season hurricane. Ryan1000 01:53, September 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * This season seems like kind of a mix between 2013 and 2007, because both had too much weak storms, but 2007 had a couple powerful ones. The strongest storm (Gaston) is in between Humberto (2013) and Dean/Felix (2007)'s intensity, so it's kinda between both seasons, if you know what I mean. 2016 seems pretty pathetic so far, but we cannot rule out an October major in the Caribbean. Back to Lisa, it remains pretty weak and should be weaker than its 2010 incarnation. Karl should eventually become a hurricane, but you'll never know until it either does or doesn't become one. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:31, September 22, 2016 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lisa
As Karl rises to power, Lisa slides into oblivion. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:41, September 23, 2016 (UTC)


 * I am despising the fact that we have had yet another weak storm - and increasing its fail status even more, it was out to sea and didn't do anything special (unlike Julia). What an epic disgrace to tropical cyclones you are, Lisa! This pathetic system didn't even try, possibly except for strengthening to 50 mph and not peaking at the even more pathetic 40 or 45 mph. Bye, fail! ;) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  00:48, September 24, 2016 (UTC)


 * Sigh, this is the ultimate fishspinner of the season (so far). What a flop, to be honest. Anyway, Lisa is expected to become a remnant low tonight. See you in 2022. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 01:22, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * She is done. See you in 2022. Not a complete waste as she restrengthen to a tropical storm, the third to do it this season but a fail nonetheless. Allanjeffs 03:12, September 25, 2016 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Lisa
Per Allan.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  05:14, September 25, 2016 (UTC)


 * Popped up on the TWO due to a convective burst producing gale-force winds. At 0/0, and will probably be truly dead soon. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:27, September 26, 2016 (UTC)