Forum:2016 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season is over, so I think it's time to start the 2016 thread. Last year the thread was created even earlier. I really want 2016 to be different from the past 3 seasons. Due to the El Nino dissipating and near record warm SSTs, that is possible. Bob (talk) 16:29, November 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * Update: I have added the betting pools, since nobody has yet. Bob (talk) - Merry Christmas! 03:39, December 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the conditions now, it looks like we could quite possibly see an above average season this year. The MDR is still warm, but the North Atlantic is cold. Nonetheless, a La Nina pattern is likely to set up this fall, which could enhance Atlantic development conditions. I'd say a season around 16 storms, 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes is likely. -Bob Page   Wall   Edits  01:07, March 14, 2016 (UTC)

November
Is here, though the Atlantic is quiet by now. There is still a slight chance we could see a late-season surprise in the Caribbean though. Ryan1000 14:39, November 1, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Central Atlantic
Sounds like I spoke too soon about the Atlantic being dead earlier. New AOI on the TWO at 0/20 located northeast of the Lesser Antilles. NHC says that this system could acquire some subtropical characteristics at a high latitude this weekend. I really hope we can get Otto from it, but I'm skeptical we will, since it is November. But who knows? ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 23:46, November 1, 2016 (UTC)


 * It's not exceptionally uncommon to see northeastern Atlantic storms in late October and November, and this actually may have a decent chance at becoming Otto when it reaches the northeastern Atlantic. And the only land area that could be affected by this would be the Azores, like how Alex did earlier this year in January. Ryan1000 11:58, November 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this does have a chance to become SS/TS Otto on Friday or Saturday. An analog storm would be Melissa 2013. If this system does develop, it will likely be in the 60-70 mph range, and may even have an outside chance of becoming a hurricane. Still 0/20. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 12:49, November 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * This might continue the trend of Ottos forming subtropical, since both the 2010 and 2004 versions formed subtropical. I hope for a November hurricane this year. This might be the final named storm this season unless we get some very late-season or post-season surprise. ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  20:29, November 2, 2016 (UTC)


 * Well Otto isn't likely to exist this year: chances have dropped to 0/0. Unless we're really lucky and something forms in late November. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:23, November 4, 2016 (UTC)


 * Ugh...off the TWO now. I just want ONE MORE STORM before season's end! I hope the season didn't end at Nicole; if it did, it would be the earliest finish to an Atlantic season since 2006. I want this season to go out with a bang, not quit early. ~ Bob Page  Wall  Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 01:56, November 5, 2016 (UTC)
 * Agreed. I hope Otto forms before the year ends. Maybe we can get some sort of mid-late November or even a post-season surprise to cap the season off? I would hate to see the earliest finish to an Atlantic season since a decade ago. I hope there's some surprise awaiting us at the end - maybe even the late equivalent of Alex? :P ~  Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  02:14, November 5, 2016 (UTC)

AOI: Possible Caribbean Storm
Most of the models, including the very reliable ECMWF, think that a tropical storm may form in the western Caribbean next week, in about 7-8 days. I hope this is Otto! ~ Bob Page  Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 20:37, November 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * GFS and ECMWF are in agreement for a moderate TS to form off Honduras, before moving eastwards towards Jamaica and Haiti (yes, again). We should have Otto in 7 to 9 days; hopefully it won't be too destructive. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:11, November 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * GFS has a crazy outcome with this system. Extremely unlikely to happen but it shows a Thanksgiving major. That would be epic to see but it is 384 hours out and I doubt it will come true. Nonetheless, this could be Otto next week, and given the warm water in the Caribbean a hurricane isn't out of the question here. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 17:51, November 8, 2016 (UTC)


 * The GFS has dropped it recently and has the system being absorbed by a front near Bermuda. I don't see anything more than a 40-mph fail from this storm, sadly. T  G  11:08, November 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * I think it's still possible it might be Otto, but I would not quite count on it. Honestly, I believe the season could be done. With Nicole's dissipation on October 18, and if Otto doesn't come from this system or anytime later, we would have the earliest end to an Atlantic season since 2006. I root for this to be Otto for a final November showing from the Atlantic. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  04:49, November 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now on the TWO at 0/20. Come on, Otto! Let's finish out the Atlantic season strong! ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 05:44, November 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Now at 0/30, and all the major models show development into Otto. GFS continues to show a Thanksgiving hurricane on the latest run. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 18:19, November 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * If GFS occurred, it would be the latest hurricane since Epsilon of 2005. This has been one incredible season. I am wishing for Otto to become a hurricane - as long as it doesn't be destructive and/or deadly - to become the latest Atlantic hurricane I've ever tracked and to make the last storm a blast. Come on AOI, become Hurricane Otto! :) ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  19:05, November 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * every model is shooting this to Cuba and Haiti as a hurricane or strong tropical storm. This might cause more trouble to the areas already affected by Matthew. Allanjeff 22:22, November 12, 2016 (UTC).


 * 0/50. I really hope we can get a Hurricane Otto from this. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 23:38, November 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/60, and the very reliable ECMWF model is now showing this storm to possibly become the Atlantic's latest major hurricane on record. I really hope this storm, if it develops, does not hit Haiti. But it is sadly a possibility. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 17:48, November 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I'd hate to see this be a devastating storm for those areas that are still recovering from Matthew. But the latest major on record would be cool to see - as long as it DOESN'T cause anything bad. If this has to be a major then I hope that it drastically weakens before making landfall in Haiti or anywhere else. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  23:05, November 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * The final storm of 1934 currently holds the record-latest date for an Atlantic major hurricane, becoming one on November 23. This has to wait almost 10 days to beat that storm, unlikely to happen. Regardless if it beats that storm or not, late-season Caribbean storms can be very dangerous if they encounter the correct conditions, due to their small size more often than not. Ryan1000 04:39, November 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * This makes me think about Lenny of 1999, but it'll have a track shifted further northwest. ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:02, November 14, 2016 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Might as well add this section, if Alex forms, I'll do its retirement chances!


 * Steve, we should save this section until we get a storm worth retiring or until we get enough storms to talk about, one (possible) subtropical storm not affecting land doesn't cut it. Ryan1000 12:54, January 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Actually, it was not me who added it. Bobnekaro added it. But I agree it's a bit too early for retirements. <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 15:27, January 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Its already here, so  I don´t see why to take it now. Even though it was open prematurely.Allanjeffs 00:50, January 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * Actually, Alex will affect land, although with half the convection now gone from the center, I'm not sure if Alex will still be tropical when it affects the Azores. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:00, January 15, 2016 (UTC)

Bob's 2016 Retirement Predictions
(credit to Steve for the colors) ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - <font color="#669">1% - Nice way to start the season, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022!
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">2% - A persistent storm that made landfall in South Carolina. It didn't cause much damage, but it did cause two deaths. She refused to die, though, as she unexpectedly regenerated. She'll be back in 2022.
 * Colin - <font color="#449">5%  - A disorganized, messy tropical storm that hit Florida, Did not appear to do any significant damage, but did cause 4 deaths. Should be back in 2022, and let's hope he is better looking then.
 * Danielle - <font color="#669">1% - Made landfall in Mexico and caused one death, but one death is usually never enough to warrant retirement. She will return in 2022.
 * Earl - 50% - Originally I had Earl's retirement chance at 70%. However with Matthew standing out as the season's most destructive storm now, I have decided to lower it to 50%. Although it caused at least 65 total deaths and was Mexico's deadliest storm since Stan. Mexico has snubbed storms from retirement before, such as Alex and Karl in 2010. I think Earl deserves to be retired, but it's not definite. At least $100 million in damage, which is a usually little low for retirement. It's possible he won't return in 2022, but I wouldn't bet on it.
 * Fiona - 0% - Didn't fail quite as badly as originally thought, as she reached 50 mph for a brief time and survived some moderate shear. Nevertheless, she was still a fail. Fiona the Fish Failicia will be back in 2022.
 * Gaston - 0% - Gastonic Gaston was awesome. Passed north of the Azores, but no damage or deaths were reported. See you in 2022!
 * Hermine - <font color="#049">15% - Again, I decided to lower my chance here. Hermine did end the 11-year Florida hurricane drought and caused at least $500 million in damage and 5 deaths. The impacts of Hermine were quite minor for a U.S. landfalling hurricane, and even COLIN was deadlier. I think it's more than likely she will stay for 2022, especially with Matthew overshadowing her.
 * Ian - 0% - Weak fishspinner, luckily it managed to reach 60 mph. Ian will return in 2022.
 * Julia - <font color="#669">2% - No confirmed deaths, but its remnants produced a lot of heavy rain in North Carolina and Virginia. Retirement is extremely unlikely, though.
 * Karl - <font color="#669">1% - Impacted Bermuda, but no reported deaths or damage. A frustrating fail that never reached hurricane status, despite some models predicting it would be a major hurricane!
 * Lisa - 0% - Another weak fishspinner that did literally nothing interesting. See you in 2022, Lisa.
 * Matthew - <font color="#900">99.999% - First category 5 since 2007, caused over 1,500 deaths, mostly in Haiti. Damage reports are estimated at over $8 billion. This name better not return, if it does, it would be just wrong. He won't be back in 2022.
 * Nicole - <font color="#449">5% - 2 fatalities total from rip currents, but the damage in Bermuda wasn't all that bad. Nicole should be seen again in 2022, if we get that far into the naming list.

Steve's retirement predictions and storm grades:
(Other users can feel free to use my colors)

Tropical depressions are included but only the storm grade for them are shown, since they cannot be retired.

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  )

(Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++, A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) <font color="brown" face="Tahoma">Steve820 <font color="teal" face="Tahoma">Talk to me 02:49, January 16, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: Grade: <font color="#094">A+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - In the Azores, it caused a death and minimal damage. It was an amazing early season hurricane and one of the earliest hurricanes on record. Its "being early" achievement alone is deserving of the grade I gave. It still could have been better though, like a major hurricane not affecting land.
 * Bonnie: Grade: D- Retirement: <font color="#449">5%  - Caused 2 direct deaths despite minimal damage. It was just a weak TS that barely amounted to much, but the fact that it was the second pre-season storm and that it regenerated increases its grade. Will almost certainly be back in 2022.
 * Colin: Grade: <font color="#F20">E  Retirement:  10%  - Colin was the earliest 3rd named storm on record, enough to affect the grade slightly. However, it was really disorganized and looked extratropical :P. 6 deaths give it a tiny shot, but I doubt retirement.
 * Danielle: Grade: <font color="#F20">E  Retirement: <font color="#669">1%  - Did not appear to do much, but it did cause a single death. It was also the earliest 4th named storm on record, enough to raise the grade a little.
 * Earl: Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#F70">75%  - Gets credit for being a hurricane and especially for restrengthening over the BOC, but the damage and deaths it caused is enough to lower the grade a little. 67 deaths and at least $250 million dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This storm has a high shot at retirement due to the destruction and deadly floods and mudslides that it caused throughout Honduras, Belize, and Mexico, as well as the deaths it caused as a tropical wave. It was the deadliest storm to strike Mexico since Stan in 2005, and the deadliest storm overall in the Atlantic since Sandy. If Stan was retired, this likely will be too. I doubt Earl will still be around in 2022.
 * Fiona: Grade: <font color="#F20"> F   Retirement:  0%  - A storm that fought the dry air well, but it was a weak fail nonetheless.
 * Gaston: Grade:  A  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - An impressive major hurricane that fought to stay alive. It also became a cool annular hurricane with a big eye. It didn't cause damage or kill people. But it did touch the Azores, preventing a complete 0%.
 * Eight: Grade: <font color="#500">Z  - A laughable fail. It never became a TS despite repeated predictions for it to become one. XD
 * Hermine: Grade:  B-  Retirement:  30%  - This seems to have a slight chance, with at least 300.5 million in damage and 5 deaths. Destruction in Florida was not good - photos showed many forced from their homes as well as bad flooding, destroyed roads, people using canoes to get to places, and more. This most likely won't be retired as the U.S. has snubbed worse storms such as Isaac, and U.S. retirements usually have a damage toll exceeding $1 billion. For the grade, it gets points for breaking the Florida hurricane landfall drought, and being the first GOM hurricane since Ingrid.
 * Ian: Grade:  F  Retirement:  0%   - Just a weak fishspinner, but a good 60 mph peak prevents a "Z" grade.
 * Julia: Grade: <font color="#F20">E  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - Gets an upping of the grade for doing awesome stunts, such as forming over land (first to do so since 1988!) and the first storm on record to form directly over Florida. It also lasted a while as a TD after weakening late in its life. However, it was still a very weak 40 mph "name-stealer", so giving anything higher than E is laughable. Any damage was minimal and no deaths have occurred.
 * Karl: Grade:  F  Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01%  - Small impacts to Bermuda give this a non-zero retirement chance. I was tempted to give this a Z, but reaching 70 mph is too good for my lowest possible fail grade. It sucks how this did not even try or become a hurricane. It was SOO close! Karl was a MAJOR disappointment! >:(
 * Lisa: Grade:  F  Retirement:  0%  - The fact that it peaked at 50 mph instead of the even more pathetic 40 or 45 mph prevents a "Z" grade, a grade reserved for the worst fails ever. Still an epic fail though, but not the absolute biggest fail.
 * Matthew: Grade: <font color="#094">A+  Retirement: <font color="#900">99%  - Bye bye. The NHC is smokin' crack if they don't retire you. My grade ratings factors in devastation, so the grade is lower than otherwise.
 * Nicole: Grade: <font color="#049">A+++++  Retirement: <font color="#094">25%  - THAT was awesome. Originally forecast to be a weak epic fail, it defied all forecasts and exploded to a C4. Wind shear weakened it to a point of almost dissipating, but it did not terminate there - Nicole reintensified to a hurricane before dissipation. It also lasted quite a while (2 weeks). Retirement is doubtful as it has only caused some damage in Bermuda, and Fabian was much worse. Nicole, you are one of my favorite 2016 storms! :)

Raindrop's Retirements
(Retirement colors:   0% , <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% ,  10% , <font color="#049">15% ,  20% , <font color="#094">25% ,  30% , <font color="#390">35% ,  40% , <font color="#CF0">45% ,  50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% ,  70% , <font color="#F70">75% ,  80% , <font color="#F20">85% ,  90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) I use Steve's retirement colors, so thanks to him. I base my retirement predictions on what kind of stuff has been retired in the past, along with where they happened and how much lasting impact they inflict. Therefore, storms that made landfall and caused a few deaths and some damage get very low chances because NHC never retires storms with those impacts. ~Raindrop57 (talk) :D 17:21, July 27, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A January hurricane making landfall is practically unheard of, but there was basically no damage in the Azores, so Alex will be back - although likely not in January.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Despite two direct deaths, minimal damage doesn't get storms retired, and so Bonnie will return in 2022.
 * Extratropical Low Pressure System Colin: <font color="#669">2% - 4 deaths and minor damage doesn't warrant retirement, and plus Colin barely qualifies as a tropical storm anyway. The 4 dead people may think differently though.
 * Danielle: <font color="#669">1% - Danielle would have done near nothing if not for the one person who sadly got killed.
 * Earl: <font color="#CF0">45%  - Wow, Earl really had a big impact for a category 1 hurricane! The flooding turned out to be extensive and the death toll is over 60 now. This means Earl definitely has a shot at retirement. Due to the NHC being conservative about retiring names and the fact that current damage totals are not too extensive yet, I'm keeping the odds of retirement worse than even, but Earl has caused major disruption to an entire country and this may need to be raised later.
 * Fiona:  0%  - Fiona was a weak storm, but it fought! Fiona tried her best through days of strong shear, but eventually lost the battle. However, Fiona's ghost still wanted to haunt us and contributed to the formation of TD8. Fiona was actually a pretty fun storm to track, and for the first time this year, it only spun fish.
 * Gaston:  0%  - Our first major hurricane of the season, Gaston, put on an impressive show while never threatening any land  - actually Gaston threatened the Azores, but weakened rapidly and did nothing. Gaston looked pretty bad during the period of high shear, but once that was gone, Gaston did not dissapoint! Gaston's lame attempt at affecting land doesn't even give it the slightest shot at retirement, considering Alex did practically nothing to the Azores. RIP Gaston, you were an amazing storm!
 * Hermine: <font color="#094">25%  - Hermine was the storm that finally brought the Florida hurricane drought to an end. Of course, that comes with a cost. Rainfall has been extensive with Hermine, and the storm surge has been bad, and it appears more impacts are yet to come. With the potential for future impacts, Hermine is not done yet despite no longer being tropical, and it stands a shot of retirement. However, the NHC snubbed Issac and other storms that hit the US and did damage, so the chance will remain low unless damage totals end up being a few billion dollars, which is hopefully not the case.
 * Ian:  0%  - Ian was a not-so-great fish storm that did manage to reach 60 mph before becoming extratropical. The most notable thing about Ian was that is was rocketing NE at over 50 mph when it became extratropical.
 * Julia: <font color="#669">1%  (Preliminary) - Julia formed OVER LAND, but despite that enigma didn't do much so far. This is still a preliminary estimate because Julia has consistently defied forecast predictions and may not be done with yet, and could still end up anywhere.
 * Karl: TBD - We'll see what Karl does to land,if anything, eventually, but right now nothing significant has happened yet.

Puffle's retirement predictions
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Credit to Steve820 for the retirement colors)


 * Alex: <font color="#669">1% - A rare January hurricane, but damages were minimal, so I don't expect this one to go.
 * Bonnie: <font color="#669">1% - Bonnie wasn't notable, except for the fact that it formed in May. See you in 2022!

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#ffffcc">Alex : <font color="#669">1% - Alex only inflicted minor damage on the Azores. It will be back in 2022.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bonnie : <font color="#449">5% - Though a weak storm, Bonnie caused some flooding in SC that killed two people. Plus, Bonnie only caused minimal damage, which kept it from a higher chance. Bonnie is more than likely to be back in 2022. T  G  20:48, June 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Colin : 10% - Though was a weak storm at landfall, it did do some damage. I was looking at pictures of the damage it inflicted earlier in Florida/Georgia. Most of the damage in Florida was caused by flooding and high winds. Colin caused four deaths, which still gives a very slim chance of retirement. We'll see him again in 2022.  T G  12:45, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danielle : <font color="#449">5% - Though we did see the earliest 4th named storm, it caused insignificant damage and 1 fatality. Disorganized Danielle will be back in 2022, and hopefully will be a fish-storm.   T G  17:44, June 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Earl : 90% - Deadliest in Mexico since Stan, more damaging than Iris, what else can make this go? Earl pretty much devastated Mexico, and Mexico actually issued a state of emergency. The one reason Karl didn't go was because it only caused lots of damage and few fatalities. Earl caused both a high number of damage and fatalities, which is basically what made Stan go in 2005.  T G  17:38, August 4, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Fiona : 0% - Finally, a break from casualties, but Fiona was a very disappointing storm, much like its 2010 predecessor. T  G  22:01, August 19, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Gaston : <font color="#669">1% - Gaston didn't do anything in the Azores, but he gets a 1% chance for affecting the area. Gaston might be my favorite looking Atlantic storm.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Hermine : 50% - Hermine does have a chance to go, but we saw many storms snubbed by the United States in the past few years, such as Fay and Isaac. I've raised my prediction up to 50% because it caused some pretty extensive damage in Florida, but I'm not sure about retirement because of Fay and Isaac.   T G  20:56, September 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Ian : <font color="#449">5% - Ian caused some minor impacts in Iceland, which is very unusual for a storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Julia : <font color="#669">1% - Julia does get acknowledgement for being the first storm since 1988 to form over land. Julia didn't do much on land, and it was a very weak storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Karl : <font color="#669">1% - Karl caused some minimal damage in Cape Verde. Karl was feared to be like Fabian at one point, but it barely did anything there. Karl's coming back for 2022.  T G  13:18, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#00faf4">Lisa : <font color="#669">1% - Lisa also caused minor damage in Cape Verde. That saying, Lisa will be back in 2022.  T G  20:14, September 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff6060">Matthew : <font color="#500">100% - He's gone for good. $9-12 billion in damages is enough for the United States to kick it off the lists. Also, 877 fatalities have been attributed by Matthew in Haiti. T  G  10:42, September 29, 2016 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Nicole : 40% - This reminds me more of Gonzalo than Fabian. I'm also really lenient on this one, but I think Nicole lands more on the odd side than the other. Nicole could go this spring, but I'm not betting on it. T  G  00:02, October 16, 2016 (UTC)

Leeboy's retirements.
Eh, why not? I'm bored, and even though I'm usually against starting it this early, we've had 3 storms already. And since Alex formed in January you could technically say we're about halfway through the season by now. So, here we go. (Thanks to Steve for the colors.)
 * Alex: <font color="#669">1.1%-   Early  and awesome start to the season, but that damage to the Azores was minor so it gets a 1. The extra .1% isn't due to how early it formed. It's because Alex is one of my personal favorite names and I'm biased.
 * Bonnie-<font color="#449">5%: My Bonnie did a lot of lying over the ocean. Forgive the joke, I couldn't resist :P. Anyways, 2 confirmed deaths due to rip currents, and $600,000 in damages gives this a small chance of retirement.
 * Colin- 10%:  Damage from flooding was worse than I initially thought. Video was sent to The Weather Channel showing manatees swimming in floodwaters in someone's yard. Fortunately still no reports of fatalities. *sigh* unfortunately it did cause four deaths, so once again the percentage is upped slightly.

Leeboy100 Hello! 17:18, June 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Danielle-  <font color="#449">5%:  Minor damage, but unfortunately caused 1 death.
 * Earl:  50%:  Wow, I did not expect it to be this bad, this actually has a fair chance of retirement.
 * Fiona- 0%: LOL
 * Gaston-0% Just an absolutely beautiful hurricane that fortunately stayed out to sea. Gaston redeemed himself after 2004 and 2010.
 * Hermine-45%: Now, this was an interesting storm, the destruction it caused gives it a chance at retirement.
 * Ian-0%: See Fiona
 * Julia-1%: lolwut, what was Julia even doing?
 * Karl-0%: Nope.
 * Lisa-0%: See Fiona, Ian and Karl.
 * Matthew: 100%: I never have given, and never thought I would give, a retirement prediction this high. However, Matthew sure has been an awful hurricane, especially for Haiti, but if Haiti doesn't retire it, even with the horrifying death toll (which is still lower than Gordon 1994, by the way), the U.S. will for sure. North Carolina got hit hard. I've seen pictures of the flooding in NC and some of the pictures and video look strikingly similar to the flooding seen in New Orleans after Katrina. This storm very likely caused damage of at least $10 billion, which alone would get it retired, but with the death toll as well, which continues to grow, Matthew will not be returning in 6 years.
 * Nicole: TBA: Like Ryan and Owen, I am revoking my previous prediction due to the threat to Bermuda.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
Grading from A to F (you can guess what they mean). Retirements in multiples of 5. Colours only for severe storms with retirements of at least 30%, besides that, blue denotes current storms.
 * 1) Alex: grade A, retirement 5%. Nice January hurricane that made landfall in the Azores, but he'll be back in 2022.
 * 2) Bonnie: grade C, retirement 10%. Regenerated against the odds. 2 direct deaths, but minimal damage. Retirement chances low.
 * 3) Colin: grade C, retirement 15%. Disappointing, disorganized and decrepit storm. (3"D"s?!) 4 fatalities (1 is presumed) but minimal damage. The waterspouts were cool, but being earliest "C" storm gives it a C.
 * 4) Danielle: grade D, retirement 5%. Possible candidate for weakest storm of the season. Unfortunately 1 fatality.
 * 5) Earl: grade B, retirement <font color="#ff8f20">65% . Nice start to August after an absolutely horrible July, but there have been 67 deaths overall, making Earl the deadliest Atlantic storm since Sandy. The damage total has gone up to at least US$250 million, with most of that from Belize and Mexico. This indeed has a decent chance of leaving the lists.
 * 6) Fiona: E, retirement 0%. First storm that hasn't affected land. Unfortunately it was weak.
 * 7) Gaston: grade A, retirement 5%. Became a major twice, with the second time at unusually high latitude. Azores impact was minor.
 * 8) Hermine: grade B, retirement <font color="#094">30% . It pulled itself together to become a hurricane at the last minute after a frustrating two weeks hoping it would actually become something, and broke Florida's 11-year hurricane-proof streak. However with a low death toll and not particularly severe damage for the U.S. for a hurricane, retirement doesn't seem that likely.
 * 9) Ian: grade E, retirement 0%. Strengthened to 50 knots, but overall still a name-stealer.
 * 10) Julia: grade D, retirement 5%. This formed over Florida and lasted for a surprisingly long time, but didn't cause much significant impact.
 * 11) Karl: grade F, retirement 5%. Managed to last to Bermuda, where impact was minor, despite being in hostile conditions for its early life. But once the shear weakened it didn't try. At all.
 * 12) Lisa: grade E, retirement 0%. At least it hit 45 knots. Another name-stealer.
 * 13) <font color="#ff6060">Matthew : grade A+, retirement <font color="#ff6060">100% . Matthew is the first Category 5 Atlantic hurricane since 2007, and has almost completely annihilated parts of Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas, as well as the US East Coast. Retirement's a certainty looking at the sheer number of deaths and the severity of damage caused.
 * 14) Nicole: grade A+, retirement 15%. Unexpectedly became a C2, then weakened before restrengthening into a C4 which made Bermuda enter its third eye in as many years. Afterwards it became a hurricane again at 40°N before finally becoming extratropical on its fourteenth day. Good job, Nicole.

~ KN2731 {talk} 08:28, November 4, 2016 (UTC)

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
There you have it...for now. Ryan1000 21:08, August 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 1% - Killed a person and caused a little damage in the Azores, on top of being a very rare January hurricane. Not negligible, but not enough for retirement either.
 * Bonnie - 2% - Killed two people and caused some damage in South Carolina from floods, on top of being the second pre-season storm in an Atlantic season in only 4 years. Still not enough for retirement though.
 * Colin - 4% - Earliest 3rd storm and was a little deadlier than Bonnie and Alex, but still rather minor overall.
 * Danielle - 1% - Earliest 4th storm, but Danielle only caused minor impacts in Mexico and probably won't get retired.
 * Earl - 65% - The death toll has been upped to more than 60, mostly in Mexico, and there was at least 250 million in damage (110 million in Belize alone) from Earl, which is rather extensive, though not catastrophic. If the final damage totals turn out to be what I fear they could be (around 1+ billion), then this is probably a guaranteed retirement. It was the deadliest Atlantic hurricane to hit Mexico since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Not a complete fail but was a fishspinner nonetheless.
 * Gaston - 1% - Passed over the western Azores as a tropical storm, so it did cause some minor impacts, but it's not enough.
 * Hermine - 23% - 5 deaths and 300 million in damage isn't negligible, but for the the U.S, it's likely not enough. Keep in mind the U.S. did snub a few recent storms like Isaac '12 and Dolly/Fay '08, all of which were more destructive and deadly than Hermine.
 * Ian - 0% - Like Fiona, it wasn't a completely pathetic fail, but...no damage, no deaths, no retirement.
 * Julia - 1% - Didn't expect this to form over Florida, but it wasn't too bad either way.
 * Karl - 1% - Minor effects on Bermuda, but it wasn't anywhere close to Gonzalo, let alone Fay, 2 years ago.
 * Lisa - 0% - Another fishspinning fail, but at least it managed to re-intensify into a TS once before dying.
 * Matthew - 100% - If the 1600 deaths and nearly 2 billion dollars in damage to Haiti somehow won't get retirement, then 10 billion dollars in damage and several deaths in the Bahamas, Cuba, and the U.S. will definitely axe Matthew. Matthew was the costliest storm to hit the U.S. since Sandy, and he is going to be retired, no matter what.
 * Nicole - 35% - This thing ripped across Bermuda as a powerful 120 mph category 3 hurricane, but despite Nicole's intensity when she struck the island, Nicole's bark was worse than her bite, and she wasn't as severe as Fabian.

iBahan1829's List Of Retirement Candidates
Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:04, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1) Category 1 Alex: 0.1%: Barely any damage to the Azores. So, Alex will return in 2022.
 * 2) Tropical Storm Bonnie: 0.1%: Like Alex, Bonnie did barely any damage to any land. Regeneration was neat, but this storm ended up weak anyway.
 * 3) Tropical Storm Colin: 1%: Actually did something. Flooded multiple Florida cities and that's pretty much all it did. Debby was worse, but it still wasn't retired. Colin will stay for 2022.
 * 4) Tropical Storm Danielle: 0.1%: Repeat of Alex and Bonnie. Next!
 * 5) Category 1 Earl: 55%: Okay, now we're talking. ~60 deaths!? Holy cow! Bad Earl! On top of that, it caused havoc in Belize! This might actually get retired.
 * 6) Tropical Storm Fiona: 0%: Fiona is equal to fish, so I might as well give this a 0%.
 * 7) Category 3 Gaston: 0%: You call that damage to the Azores? YOU HAVE FAILED! See you in 6 years.
 * 8) Category 1 Hermine: 25%: This is the second tropical cyclone this year to impact FLORIDA, and the first hurricane to impact Florida period since Wilma of October 2005 . It did cause considerable damage, but not even nearly as much overall as Matthew. If Isaac wasn't retired, this won't be either.
 * 9) Tropical Storms Ian and Lisa: 0%: Ian = near hurricane that spinned the fish around. Lisa = epic failure.
 * 10) Tropical Storms Julia and Karl: 3%: Did effect land in some way, shape, or form, but not enough to get retired.
 * 11) CATEGORY 5 MATTHEW: 98%: 3(3:3(3:3(383:3(#/#/1?1!#:$6:+))-(=?9?`¶`{|[¥®¥®€™¢[¢¶`¶`{aaaaaaaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee! C5! C5! First in nearly an entire decade! But, of course, it had to wreck, destroy, and exteminate every land it came across. The results seen were horrendous this time, words almost cannot describe the damage left in it's wake. 900+ deaths and $5+ billion in damage makes this the first billion dollar hurricane in just about 4 years. As spectacular as it was, damage was done, and flooding problems are still occuring in the Carolinas and Virginia as I am typing this. This will get retured. Good riddence, Matthew.

Allan´s retirement Predictions
1. Alex 0.1%  Even though it was a really good surprise, and had an indirect death,its nothing for it to be retire from the list. So we will see him again in 2022.

2. Bonnie 0.1% She was a fighter not going to doubt it, She even came back from death but its impact in the states were minimal at most. She just tickle some states. The 2 deads will not make the states ask for her, so Sayonara until 2022.

3,Colin 0.1% Damages were even less than Bonnie but he produce double of deads. That .1% its just becausse it affect land because imo it merits a zero.

4. Danielle 0.1% Weakest storm so far in 2016 and it just produce 1 death. Her effects on Mexico were minimal and at most they were overshadow by Earl later on. So see you in 2022 beotch.

5. Earl 65% the real deal of the season so far. His damages in Belize are compare to those of Iris in 2001 it has already produce 100,000 dollars in damage and its not final tally in that country. Earl big chance of retirement comes from its effects in Mexico where it has 52 deads so far and its describe as the worst storm in Puebla´s history. It produce damages to other states too. With the death toll in a country that prides itself from being prepare to this types of disasters it was a hard hit for Mexico´s ego. Imo they will not condone this one to be staying. I am not counting the DR because the fatalities were when Earl was disturbance and not a storm as such it might not count  for choice in retirement.

6 Fiona 0% Meh not a weak ts not a strong one, a fail but not a complete one,Still Fiona is coming back in 2022. She was almost an exact copy of her predecesor in 2010, better luck next time lady.

7 Gaston 0.1% Our first major of the season and the a big high ACE contributor, thanks for that Captain, aside of that effects in the Azores were minimal if any. He will be back, that is for sure.

8 Hermine 35% This will be preliminary until her report comes out with the monetary damage with all damage figures. I am actually generous with Hermine as the states have seen much worse storms than her. 500,000 dollars is not something to laugh about but nothing compare to other storms the States have dealt with. If she had another day like models were predicting these figures would have been much higher but thank God she didnt. Anyhow it was nice to finally have a hurricane with the name Hermine.

9 Ian 0% A fishpinner. Stronger than Fiona but nothing incredible. I actually want this name to fail, didnt fail as I want it but fail in intensity nonetheless. Lol Many were disappointed he didnt follow his predecesors footsteps but imo Ian is a weak name so I did enjoy that he was only a strong moderate ts. Anyways try harder in 2022 little thing, might have luck in that season XD.

10 Julia 0.3% I actually want the name Julia to be used for a strong name, sadly it was just given to a stealer and weak system. One of the most annoying and fighter storms I have track. she didnt want to fail and she was seeing a tunnel to the light were wind shear was low and once the shear start to decrease she died. TDFW. Really frustrating storm will see the damages of this storm once the NHC release her reports. probably minimal though. First tropical storm to form over land that I track though. My first storm to track that became a hurricane overland was Irene.

11 Karl 0.7% Afffected Bermuda and Cape Verdes with rains and breeze but nothing more, it try and try but failed to become a hurricane. What a disappointment. I actually thought this would had been our 5th hurricane of the season, might be upgrade but who knows. See you in 2022 Karl and try harder please next time.

12 Lisa 0.01% Affected cape Verdes  like Karl with showers and low winds but she is a fishpinner and nothing more. like Karl she fight and fight shear and dry air but ultimately succumbing before doing anything worth.Expect her in 2022.

13 Matthew 99.5% Matthew its almost certainly gone from the list. Haiti might not ask retirement because it does not have the money to send a representative to the WMO but Cuba and the Us does. Matthew was the second costliest storm in Cuba and Cuba is not relucant into asking named storms out of the list. Guantanamo was totalled by Matthew and if Cuba for a reason does snubbed this chance which I doubt the Usa will certainly do. Maybe not for the damage in Florida but for the extreme flooding that Matthew caused in NC which left a lot of people dead, Anyhow this is the last time we will probably see Matthew on the list. Au revoir Matthew.

Nicole 20%. She will be here for 2022 even though she was an amazing storm to track. From developing in the worst conditions to becoming a cat 2 to almost dissipating and then becoming a cat 4. Was beautiful. Damage in Bermuda was almost nonexistant Fay caused more damage than her and she was not retire so I doubt she will be gone.

Unless we get another storm which I doubt I can almost surely say that the two possible names taken out of the list are Earl and Matthew.

Allanjeff 20:47, November 4, 2016 (UTC)

Isaac's prediction
0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100%. -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:25, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 0% - Little damage to Azores.
 * Bonnie - 0% - Less than $1 million in damage.
 * Colin - 0% - Minimal damage.
 * Danielle - 0% - Little damage.
 * Earl - 50% - Over $100 million in damage and 67 deaths, a good possibility.
 * Fiona - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Gaston - 0% - " "
 * Hermine - 25% - Very unlikely as not much damage occurred.
 * Ian - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Julia - 0% - Impacts were already felt before warnings were issued.
 * Karl - 0% - Fishspinner.
 * Lisa - 0% - " "
 * Matthew - 100% - For Haiti and Cuba alone.
 * Nicole - ?

Owen's prediction
Owen 04:35, September 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex: 0% - Neat January hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were minor.
 * Bonnie: 0% - Minimal tropical storm and minimal land impact.
 * Colin: 0% - The real problem caused by Colin was flooding, but Debby of 2012 was worse and wasn't retired.
 * Danielle: 0% - Mexico has seen worse.
 * Earl: 50% - I'm giving Earl a 50/50 chance because there has been past hurricanes such as Karl which were ultimately snubbed by Mexico, but my gut feeling is it will go if it's the worst death toll since Stan.
 * Fiona - 0% - Disappointing fish storm that didn't really do much.
 * Gaston - 0% - He was a pretty nice major hurricane, but the effects in the Azores were ultimately minimal at best.
 * Hermine - 25% - I don't forsee Hermine going, despite the fact she was the first hurricane to make landfall in Florida in 11 years. The damages were less than Fay of 2008, which wasn't retired.
 * Ian - 0% - I honestly wish the name went to a much stronger storm this year, but it ended up being a moderate tropical storm that was just a fish.
 * Julia - 0% - Again, it was neat seeing another uncommon thing like her forming overland, but impacts were minor at best in Florida.
 * Karl - 0% - I mean he kept trying his whole life to persist, but never managed to become a hurricane and didn't affect Bermuda much but he's gonna be back.
 * Lisa: 0% - Fishspinner Lisa will be spinning the way to return in 2022.
 * Matthew: 90% - Just saw a new report that insured U.S. damages will likely fall around $6 billion. However, the totals are usually double that like Ryan had said. Looks like Matthew may make his way into the top 10 costliest Atlantic hurricanes list after including all the damages on his journey. If no other country requests (as Haiti likely can't request because of their representative issue), the U.S. and Cuba are still very likely to request retirement of the name.
 * Nicole: 40% - I don't want to place the odds too low or too high, so I think a 40% shot is fair enough. I'll mark it futher up if the damage totals come close to Fabian and are in fact more than Gonzalo.

Jdcomix's prediction

 * Alex - <font color="#669">1%  - Surprising January HURRICANE that caused minimal damage in the Azores. See you in 2022.
 * Bonnie - <font color="#669">2%  - Caused minimal damage in South Carolina, but refused to die. See you in 2022 as well.
 * Colin - <font color="#449">10%  - Colin pls, you didn't even look tropical. Despite its atrocious appearence, it still killed 6 people, which warrants a retirement chance of 10%. Has a small chance of going, but will likely be back in 2022.
 * Danielle - <font color="#449">5%  - Bay of Campeche failicia that killed one person. Damage is still unknown, so I'm saying 5% chance.
 * Earl -  90%  - Surprisingly fierce storm that devastated southeastern Mexico. It's very likely that Earl won't return for 2022, but Mexico didn't retire Karl or Matthew in 2010, so it's possible it could stay.
 * Fiona -  0%  - LOL
 * Gaston -  0%  - Fishspinning major and the longest lasting Atlantic hurricane in years. Also created memes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHDtEd87gwM
 * Hermine - <font color="#390">35%  - Broke the record-long Florida hurricane drought, but only caused 5 deaths. Likely to return.
 * Ian - 5% - Hit ICELAND as an extratropical cyclone, but damage was minimal. See you in 2022.
 * Julia - 5% - What an unusual track. Could have caused moderate damage in South Carolina, but retirement seems unlikely.
 * Karl - 5% - This was the most frustrating storm in years for obvious reasons. Impacted Bermuda minorly
 * Lisa -  0%  - See Fiona.
 * Matthew - <font color="#500">100%  - Retired. If you aren't knocked off of the list for 2022, the NHC is on crack.

Whiplash's prediction

 * Alex: 0% - No major land effects.
 * Bonnie: 0% - Negligible.
 * Colin: 0% - See you in 2022.
 * Danielle: 0% - See above.
 * Earl: 45% Interesting corundum I suspect retirement could be either way but I'm leaning slightly towards not being retired reminds me of Dolly, Alex and Karl in recent years and I think he will be staying based on Mexico's past behavior.
 * Fiona: 0% - Lol
 * Gaston: 0% - Strong but harmless and forgettable in the middle of the Atlantic.
 * Hermine: 10% - The U.S. has seen much worse and not retired the name.
 * Ian: 0% - Pretty rare we get I fails but this certainly was one.
 * Julia: 0% - Interesting formation location but otherwise not noteworthy.
 * Karl: 0% - See you in 2022.
 * Lisa: 0% - See above.
 * Matthew: 100% - Goodbye Matthew don't even need to see what you are going to do to Florida you have already destroyed so much in the Caribbean.
 * Nicole: ?? - I have decided to revise her as she could possibly whack Bermuda as a major. Depends what she does if she becomes another Fabian she could be going off the list. So I will reserve judgement on her for now and see how things develop.

--Whiplash (talk) 23:04, October 6, 2016 (UTC)

Eric's retirement chances

 * Alex - 0% - Awesome off-season hurricane, but didn't do much to land.
 * Bonnie - 5% - Some damage, mostly to South Carolina, but certainly not enough for retirement.
 * Colin - 3% - Although he caused six deaths, he barely caused any damage.
 * Danielle - 1% - One death and minimal damage. She's staying for 2022.
 * Earl - 65% - 67 deaths along with over 250 million in damage sounds pretty retirement worthy to me.
 * Fiona - 0% - :/
 * Gaston - 0% - Fun major hurricane to track, and fortunately resulted in no damage or fatalities.
 * Hermine - 25% - 300 million in damage sure is nothing to joke about, but only five deaths makes retirement unlikely.
 * Ian - 0% - Meh.
 * Julia - 0% - Julia was on some dumb sh!t, but she isn't going anywhere. Nice try though.
 * Karl - 0% - I was so upset that he didn't reach hurricane status. Really Karl?
 * Lisa - 0% - Who?
 * Matthew - 100% - Over 5 BILLION in damage and over 1,000 deaths give Matthew a certain chance of retirement.
 * Nicole - 10% - Caused only some damage on Bermuda, and no fatalities. Nicole will be back in 2022.

<font face="Verdena"> Eric  01:30, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

A2.0's retirement forecast
Going to make this simple.


 * Alex - 2% - Maybe it can get retired because of its early existence, but to be honest, it is highly unlikely.
 * Bonnie to Danielle - 0% - NO. JUST NO.
 * Earl - 55% - Mexico's deadliest since Stan, Belize's costliest since Iris, but this storm got overshadowed by that beast in October (a.k.a. Matthew)
 * Fiona to Gaston - 0% - See you in 2022!
 * Hermine - 30% - Florida impacts are relatively minimal compared to previous storms; I don't think Hermine will go.
 * Ian to Lisa - 0% - The fishspinner squad will be spinning again in 2022.
 * Matthew - 99.9% - SHOULD BE RETIRED. Matthew is the deadliest storm to hit Haiti since Jeanne, and also the deadliest to strike NC since Floyd. Hopefully those hard facts are enough to retire Matthew, however, there's this very small chance that this won't be retired because of Haiti's reluctance to retire names, though the U.S. damage estimate and fatality totals seal its fate.
 * Nicole - 35% - ( I really thought this was supposed to be another fishspinner, but as of this posting, this may be hitting Bermuda soon. Hopefully not as bad as Fabian or even Gonzalo '14. ) And this storm hit Bermuda. Fortunately not as bad as Fabian, and if the cost of damages aren't that high, Nicole may pull off a Gonzalo 2.0.

By the way, this my first time to do this after many years. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:27, October 10, 2016 (UTC)

Bumblebee's Retirement Prediction
Bumblebee the transformer (talk) 04:24, October 24, 2016 (UTC)
 * Alex - 1% - Basically did nothing,
 * Bonnie,Collin,Danielle - 0% -  I dont need to explain.
 * Earl - 30% -  One of the worst storms to hit the Yucatan in some time,There is a possibilty of not seeing Earl in 2022.
 * Fiona - 0% -  Fish storm,see you again in 2022
 * Gaston - 0% -  A cool storm but caused no deaths or damage. Gaston is not getting the chop
 * Hermine - 15% - Did cause damage in Florida and some deaths but It wasnt too bad.
 * Ian,Julia,Karl,Lisa - 0% - You guys can take the door to 2022.
 * Matthew - 99% - He is most definitely gone, One of the worst for Cuba,Florida and North Carolina, the first cat 5 since 2007,killed 500+ people in Haiti. He is getting the chop for sure
 * Nicole - 5% - Pulled off an Ophelia 2011,There is the small retirement chance because this was a cat 4

Post-Season Changes
I know it's still kind of early, but the Atlantic is completely dead and there is not much else to talk about in the Atlantic right now. Anyway, the NHC is expected to release Hurricane Alex's tropical cyclone report later this month. Dvorak estimates for the hurricane estimated winds as high as 82.2kt (90-95 mph). I think there's a good chance of Alex's intensity being upgraded to 90 mph, and even a slight shot that Alex will be upgraded to a 100 mph category 2 storm. The pressure was also likely lower than 979, maybe in the low 970s, which would make Alex the strongest January Atlantic storm on record. We will have to find out in a couple weeks, if not sooner. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM EARL FORM! 02:04, July 17, 2016 (UTC)
 * 11 days left. I recall from somewhere that the NHC was supposed to finish this in June, but optimistically this delay could mean an upgrade. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:01, July 20, 2016 (UTC)
 * 1 day left, and I hope the NHC releases it tonight. It would be a nice for an otherwise completely inactive July. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:18, July 31, 2016 (UTC)


 * Eric Blake is suppose to be the one writing this report, will see. Allanjeffs 03:36, August 2, 2016 (UTC)
 * NHC finally released the TCR for Alex today, but there's no change to its peak intensity (still at 85 mph, 981 mbars); however it was downgraded to a 65 mph storm on it's landfall in the Azores island of Terceira in reanalysis, from 70 mph operationally. Ryan1000 20:49, September 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * Although Alex's peak intensity was not changed, something cool about the TCR was that it was found to have formed a full day earlier than originally thought. This means the 2016 Atlantic season officially started on January 12, not January 13. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 00:19, September 15, 2016 (UTC)

Danielle is out. Little change, if any. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM IAN FORM! 23:11, September 21, 2016 (UTC)
 * Bonnie is out. No change with peak intensity, but it was found to have regenerated 15 hours earlier, and it was a tropical storm for a little longer than originally believed. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 19:57, October 17, 2016 (UTC)


 * As the Atlantic remains dead with no signs of development in the near future, what do you guys think we will see with some of the TCRs this fall and winter? I would like to see Karl upgraded to a hurricane, but if the NHC didn't upgrade Estelle they are unlikely to upgrade Karl. I also think Earl and Hermine were a little stronger at landfall than 80 mph, and I also believe Gaston may have been 125 mph at peak. Matthew is unlikely to have been any stronger than 160 mph. ~ Bob <font face="Arial">Page  <font face="Arial">Wall  <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM OTTO FORM! 23:36, November 1, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hermine rapidly cleared an eye before landfall, and indeed could have been much stronger than 70 knots. For Matthew, recon measured 143 knots near its first peak intensity, so there's a chance we'll get an upgrade to 145 knots. But what I'm more interested in is Colin: it doesn't look fully tropical, and I'm curious to know what its TCR may reveal about its structure.~ KN2731 {talk} 08:32, November 4, 2016 (UTC)

Replacement names
Earl is looking to be a surprisingly good candidate for retirement at this point, given the rather high death toll in Mexico and damage in Belize, despite its low intensity. So...if Earl does get retired, what do you think it should be replaced by? Some of my suggestions are here:
 * Edvin
 * Edgar
 * Elan
 * Eli(e)
 * Elvin
 * Emmett
 * Emile
 * Elliot
 * Elric
 * Evan
 * Ethan
 * Elwin
 * Elwood
 * Elson

Like with Joaquin last year, there are a lot of good "E" names available to replace Earl given that 1) relatively few "E" names have been retired, and 2) none of the "E" retirees we have had were male names. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * I'd go with either Edgar or Evan. T  G  10:36, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * My vote goes to Elliott, spelled the same way as Elliott Smith. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:39, August 11, 2016 (UTC)


 * Edgar and Elvis would be some good replacements. ~BOB <font face="Arial">Page   <font face="Arial">Wall   <font face="Arial">Edits  FORM FIONA FORM! 22:40, August 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * Mexico's track record might mean this could have a lower shot of retirement (especially since they snubbed storms such as Alex and Karl), but I personally think it has a pretty good shot at getting retired, since it was the deadliest hurricane since Sandy and caused at least $100 million in damage (in Belize alone). Once Mexico damage tolls come out, I won't be surprised if the toll skyrockets past $1 billion. My favorite replacement names out of Ryan's list are Edgar, Elliot, Evan, and Ethan. I also suggest Emmanuel, and as Bob said above, Elvis (a storm named after Elvis Presley would be epic!). <font face="Impact"> St  eve  82  0   02:08, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't really like having the name "Elvis" on the lists because of "Hurricane Elvis" in 2003, which was a deadly derecho that struck Memphis with 100 mph winds. T  G  10:56, August 12, 2016 (UTC)


 * Steve, The thing is that I think Mexico didnt retired Karl because it didnt caused a lot of deads like Earl has done. Its now being said in the news that this have been the worst storm on record for Puebla in terrms of death toll. Maybe the damage of Karl was extensive but I am pretty sure many Mexicans do not remember him because the death toll was low and most damage was concentrated in Veracruz. Meanwhile Earl have caused trouble in Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Queretaro and Hidalgo to mention some. Being Mexico the most affected of the countries in the path of Earl I believe its replacement will be in Spanish so Elias, Efrain,Emanuel or Edgar are good candidates for replacement. If Belize is the one to request it for retirement the name might be one usually use in English. Allanjeffs 17:58, August 12, 2016 (UTC)

Here are some more "E" names: Andros 1337 (talk) 21:11, August 12, 2016 (UTC)
 * Edwin
 * Elmo
 * Emilio
 * Enrico
 * Enzo
 * Emanuel
 * Emanuele
 * Evaristo
 * Evandro
 * Edison
 * Edmond
 * Elton
 * Emery
 * Eustace


 * I would really hate seeing Emanuel on the list due to confusion with the very similar name, Manuel. T  G  11:00, August 13, 2016 (UTC)
 * I was going to mention that too, I doubt Em(m)anuel will be chosen to replace Earl, especially since the country most affected by Earl (Mexico) retired Manuel just 3 years ago. My favorite choice would be Evan, but if Mexico submits Spanish names then Esteban would be my pick. Emilio and Enrico are also possible but they could be confused with Emilia (the female version of the name, and scheduled for the 2018 EPac season) and Enrique (used last year in the EPac). Ryan1000 04:47, August 14, 2016 (UTC)


 * With Joaquin last year, we've seen that replacement names don't have to match the country or the language of the retired name. Edwin or Edvin, Edgar, Edison or Elvis sound more likely from the NHC. Unless the NHC decides to continue with names of popular movie/TV characters and goes with Elmo. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:14, August 15, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, it's not a universal rule of thumb (Felix '07 hit Nicaragua hard, a Spanish-speaking country, but they chose Fernand, the French version of Fernando, to replace him), but it's usually more likely for said affected country to submit names of their language, and the WMO usually picks the first of the 3-4 names that are submitted to them for replacement. Ryan1000 03:50, August 16, 2016 (UTC)

While Earl is a likely retirement candidate, we also have Hermine and Matthew as possibilities, so here are some potential replacement names:

Female H Names
 * Helga
 * Heather
 * Holly
 * Haley
 * Helena
 * Harriet
 * Heidi
 * Henley

Male M Names
 * Mark
 * Marcus
 * Macario
 * Mariano
 * Maurizio
 * Michelangelo
 * Mackenzie
 * Martin
 * Mickey
 * Moriarty
 * Mars
 * Mercury
 * Merrick
 * Morris
 * Malcolm
 * Mervyn
 * Merv
 * Marcelino
 * Marley
 * Mercer
 * Merlin
 * Miles

How are these names? Andros 1337 (talk) 18:35, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * I highly doubt Hermine will be retired, it wasn't that bad for the U.S, but Matthew is shaping up to be a fairly likely, if not certain, retirement candidate as it nears Florida as a strong category 4 hurricane, on top of the major damage he caused in the Caribbean. My personal picks to replace Matthew would be Mark/Marcus, Miles, Martin, or Morris. Michelangelo sounds a bit too close to Michael (scheduled for 2018), and I doubt the NHC will suggest a hurricane name also shared with a planet, like Mars or Mercury. Other than that, most of those names for Matthew sound good. Ryan1000 19:45, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * I would add Mason, Montgomery, Milan, Milo, Maurice, Matteo as other possible replacement names. --Whiplash (talk) 23:09, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Oh and Micah/Mika too. --Whiplash (talk) 23:11, October 6, 2016 (UTC)


 * Matteo is probably out, since it's Italian for Matthew. Same goes with Mateo (Spanish form of Matthew). Andros 1337 (talk) 01:11, October 7, 2016 (UTC)


 * I just want to mention that many of you are thinking that because of the damage it caused in Haiti it will be retired, I would like to say that may not be the case. As you may know many storms that affected only Haiti are not retired even if they caused a lot of damage and death. Dr Masters in an earlier post he comment that Haiti never send a representative to the NMO  so no request is made. That is why Gordon and Hanna were not retired even if they should have. He said that economic reasons might be why Haiti never sends a representative. I do agree that Matthew is going to be retired but because of its damage in Cuba, Bahamas and possible the USA but not because of Haiti requesting the name, so until Haiti starts sending representatives which I doubt it will be soon base on how its economy I might not put a high chance of retirement to a storms that only affects Haiti. Allanjeff 06:12, October 7, 2016 (UTC)
 * For Earl, I think Elvis or Edgar will do. For Hermine (though this is now unlikely), Helga, Horatia, Hester, Holly, Hestia or Hope are the possible replacements. For Matthew: Martin sounds okay for me, but it's very similar to Marty (which is in the eastern Pacific list). Maybe Marvin, Morgan, Melvin, Micah, Miles, Morris or Marcel/Marcelo will do. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:08, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * I am picking Holly or Helena, or maybe Harriet for Hermine (the retirement of this particular storm is unlikely however). For Matthew, which is a MUCH more likely retirement candidate, I am picking Mark, Marcus, Michelangelo, Morris, Malcolm, Melvin, or Miles. I highly doubt the NHC would name tropical cyclones after planets; the retired name in a different language (such as Matteo) is highly doubtful as well. Hermine is not really deserving of retirement whatsoever - what I really want is Matthew and Earl to be retired, as they deserve it, without a doubt. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  03:28, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * Maybe the NHC would consider naming tropical cyclones after plants. How does Hurricane Milkweed sound to everybody? Hurricane Mulberry? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:02, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * For the record Anonymous, the WMO has replaced Atlantic hurricane names with similar variants of that name already in use in the EPac, and vise versa, multiple times before. There's no reason they can't do it again, it just can't be the exact same name on both lists. They did it to David in 1979; it was replaced by Danny, which can be considered a variation of the name Daniel, which was used in the EPac the year before and both names are still in use today. They also did it to Floyd, which was replaced by Franklin while Frank was still in use in the EPac just one year before, and both of those names are also still in use today. Julian, the replacement of Joaquin, is the male version of the name Julia and it's somewhat similar to the spanish name Julio, on the EPac list. Lastly, they did it to Kenna by replacing it with Karina while Katrina was on the Atlantic lists (though Katrina got retired on it's next usage). Ryan1000 22:18, October 8, 2016 (UTC)
 * I agree with that, Ryan. Maybe Martin will be a good choice to replace Matthew. Anyway, I want to add the name Celia to the facts you stated. Celia, which was retired in the Atlantic in 1970, but is in the current eastern Pacific hurricane list; in fact, it was used this season and is likely to be used again in 2022. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:30, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Well, the EPac naming lists weren't changed to their modern versions until 1978, which was after Celia (and Hilda and Dora) got retired in the Atlantic, I was referring to variations of replacement names on both lists after 1979. I'm not sure if the NHC will suggest a hurricane name that was formerly retired in the other basin, since the EPac naming lists included Celia, Hilda, and Dora when they were first drawn up by the WMO, they didn't replace formerly retired names like the examples I mentioned. But we don't know for sure, what we do know is when the NHC submits their report for the WMO, the WMO usually picks the first of the 3 or 4 replacement names suggested. Ryan1000 04:18, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Well, Mark seems too similar to Marco (which will appear in 2020). Max is in next year's EPac list, so that's out. What's looking more likely are (mentioned above) Martin, Morris, Moses, Malcolm, or even Marshall or Miguel. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:48, October 9, 2016 (UTC)


 * Mark can still be used. Look what happened with Joaquin of last year, it was replaced with Julian which is very similar to Julia which was used this year. T  G  10:43, October 9, 2016 (UTC)

Eric (my name!) could also replace Earl, as it is spelt differently from Erick in the E. Pac. And I think Miles should replace Matthew. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  11:59, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Hate to say it Eric, but because Eric and Erick have the same pronunciation (as far as I am aware), I doubt that the NHC will choose Eric to replace Earl. :/
 * I said a couple months ago that Elliott was my top pick as Earls replacement, and I still stand by that; Mark, Myles, and Marshall are my top choices for replacing Matthew. (And for the record, though I doubt Hermine will be retired, my top replacement pick would be Heather.) --Dylan' (HurricaneMaker99) 17:01, October 9, 2016 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I doubt they will, too. :/ Edwin or Elliott seem like good replacement names to me. <font face="Verdena"> Eric  01:36, October 10, 2016 (UTC)
 * Maybe I'd go for Marvin, Mort, Maurice/Morris, Mickey/Mick, Mac/Mack or Marcel (to replace Matthew), Edwin, Elliott or Elias/Eli (for Earl), and if Hermine would be retired (which is now highly unlikely), Harriet. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:41, October 10, 2016 (UTC)


 * My pick for Earl would be Edgar, or Elliot. And Mark, Martin, or Mort to replace Matthew. Leeboy100 Beware Matthew's fury. 01:46, October 11, 2016 (UTC)
 * My picks for replacement names are Eli, Heather, and Milo. I doubt Hermine is going to be retired, but in the possibility she is, I agree with Dylan's pick of Heather. Owen 03:04, October 16, 2016 (UTC)


 * My picks for replacements are Edgar, Helga or Heidi, and Martin. T  G  13:54, October 22, 2016 (UTC)
 * I pick Edgar or Evan for Earl, Helena for Hermine, and Mark, Malcolm, or Melvin for Matthew. I might decide on my final picks for Earl and Matthew soon. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Chat :D  Contribs  Email me  18:00, October 22, 2016 (UTC)