Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season/Dorian

98L.INVEST
Well...maybe I spoke too soon, but I doubt this invest will become much. 10%, none of the models make this anything strong in the next week. Ryan1000 15:22, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I really am already starting to doubt any development out of this. Wind shear is too strong and is just going to stretch it out and make it elongated and dry air is all around it. I really don't think this is going to become Dorian anytime soon. It looks as though Dorian will be met in August. ST✪12 15:34, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

I agree with STO. I mean, I'm pretty sure the invest is not going to r here for very long. Next month should have a burst of activity. Rara Hooves 15:41, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Pretty much. Hey, we didn't see Danielle (a major hurricane) until August during the 2010 season, 2013 shouldn't be too much different. ST✪12 15:53, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I don't think this will develop. There's too much wind shear and dry air around it. Maybe Dorian will come in early August? Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 16:16, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I honestly hope this doesn't develop either. I don't want a bunch of POS storms that just steal a name off the list. Ryan1000 16:39, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I totally agree with Ryan. 2011 was bad enough with a waste of names, we don't want that to happen in 2013, especially new names that haven't been used yet. ST✪12 17:13, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * The cape verde may suffer a little as water is becoming cooler.hope it doesn´t ruin our chances because I am tired of this little weakling,we haven`t have a good cape verde since 2010 without counting Katia.Even though I hate weaklings if they deserve a name they should name it.like Jose XD.Horrible but worth of classification.Allanjeffs 17:43, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * 30% looks like Dorian wants to come of this wave.Allanjeffs 18:06, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alright, I've changed my mind. I now think this will become Dorian, and maybe peak as a moderate to strong TS. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 18:19, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

I hope, if it does develop, it at least becomes something reasonable, like a hurricane at the very least. But NHC says the fun for 98L is only temporary, as later this week it will run into the Sahran Air Layer and rapidly weaken or die out. So if this wants to become Dorian it better do so very soon. Ryan1000 18:33, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

Maybe a cat 1 but it doesn`t have a lot of time.three days max.Allanjeffs 18:39, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

Oh damn it! I wanted Dorian to become something reasonable! Reasonable meaning, like, well, i don't know, a hurricane? Somehow since its close enough to the warm watered African coast, it isn't getting the brink effects of the strong wind shear or the dry desert air to its west. I think Dorian might have to be a flop for this season unless he completely impresses us like becoming a hurricane in dry air. Maybe Dorian will pull a Lisa 2010? Hopefully. If Dorian isn't stronger than at least 60 mph, it doesn't deserve to be replacing Dean from 2007. -.- ST✪12 19:13, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

I reckon Bertha didn't have too much model support of the coast of Africa. It still doesn't mean this couldn't intensify. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  20:50, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Conditions in 2008 weren't the same as they are now in 2013. There was less dry air from the SAL in early July 2008, so Bertha had a field day once it got through what little dry air was there. This thing is heading for a massive chunk of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer, and it'll hit that dry air in about two days. It'll continue to pass through that dry air from there on out into late this week. If 98L doesn't become Dorian by, say tomorrow, this is doomed to epically fail. However, it will weaken the SAL, so that could mean worse news as more waves like this one continue to pass off of Africa into the heart of the season, weakening the SAL further and further as the season drags on. That, and the Bermuda High will be strengthening at the same time, which unfortunately means we could have less storms recurving out to sea and more storms impacting land. All that adds up to one thing -- this will be a nasty season. I don't think this will become much at all, but it's one of the many waves that will gradually lift the cap off of the SAL during the heart of the season (Not trying to be a doomcaster or anything, but those are the facts). Ryan1000 21:14, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * This system is becoming better organize may become Dorian tomorrow or Wenesday.I was also hoping for it to become a hurricane might become one if it strengthens rapidly.Dorian sounds like a major name but oh well.A perfect analog would be Florence of last year.Ryan I believe it will peak at 60 or 70 might become a low end hurricane too like someone mention above it may pull a Lisa.Allanjeffs 23:19, July 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Given the dry air this system is heading toward, it's highly unlikely this storm will get past 60 mph, if that. NHC says they only expect it to have the rest of today and tomorrow before conditions go rapidly downhill for this invest. I would hate to see the first storm named Dorian turn out to be an epic fail, but...unfortunately, that's what looks like will happen. Ryan1000 23:48, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

-.- Why, whenever we hope for something great out of the Atlantic hurricane basin, it turns out to be the opposite. Well Future-Dorian, sorry you got stuck in a bad spot this year. Doesn't mean 2019 will the be the same (hopefully) -.- ST✪12 00:35, July 23, 2013 (UTC)

Lets just wait for it to form and we will see if its a hurricane or a tropical storm or depression.If it moves west it might become a hurricane.Allanjeffs 01:48, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope this doesn't become Dorian. If this does develop, it will just be an epic failure that will not get past 45 mph because of the dry air ahead of it. I hope this will only be a tropical depression. I mean, seriously, save the name "Dorian" for a stronger storm that won't fail! Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:35, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * 60% Td 4 is coming and possibly Dorian.Some models have it survive or regenerate and making it to the US.Allanjeffs 17:54, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think it will become Dorian soon, but it won't last long if it does. Should Dorian-to be, by some Miracle, survive the hellhole of unfavorable conditions it's heading towards, there is a very slight chance it could make it to the U.S. East Coast in 10 days or so. However, anything that far out is mere speculation at this point, and I still have doubts this will be more than TD 4 when it does form. Ryan1000 18:02, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Please be a bust, or at least don't become named! Bah, I (quite selfishly) wanted Dorian to be a significant storm this year so that it could possibly get its name retired and replaced with my name, which is Dylan. I feel bad saying this because I know that for a name to get retired, the storm that bears it must cause a great deal of suffering, but seeing my name on the ATL lists has always been a selfish desire of mine. (Plus, if Dorian was retired and Karen wasn't, I could share a list with my mom's name!) Oh well, at least I'm going to be used down in the AUS region next season! --HurricaneMaker99 18:23, July 23, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 60%, if this is going to become something......I would prefer it to stay as Tropical Depression Four. New names should have a chance to not become a flop. Some names that were unlucky on their first season would be...Ingrid 2007, Cristobal 2002, Fay 2002, Don 2011, Colin 2010, Fiona 2010, Melissa 2007, Laura 2008.....the list is never endless. Please don't let Dorian be a flop mother nature. My name is on the Atlantic name list, Otto has been used twice. One a weak tropical storm and the other a category 1 hurricane. :) ST✪12 18:53, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Lucky you :P Even if I were to fail on the level of Joyce from last year, it would be better than nothing. --HurricaneMaker99 19:36, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Oh, and don't forget Lorenzo from 2001 on that list. --HurricaneMaker99 19:44, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here is the latest from the NHC. This invest has a 60% chance of becoming a TC. I'd prefer it if this is Dorian, since I tend to go by the phrase "the more the merrier." Don was no flop @sto12, he at least made a landfall in the US, that's still something... I am not expecting much from the system, probably just a small tropical storm, but from Erin onwards we could see the next big thing. (And congratulations to Kate and William for the new baby prince!)


 * AND YES THIS IMAGE IS FROM THE NHC. Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 19:55, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * OH_NO_here_comes_dorian.png

Don was a flop storm. It died on landfall, caused no damage, and killed no people. Don could've actualy been helpful, knowing Texas was in a drought at the time and needed rain, but it brought less than an inch of rain when it hit. Still not buying more than TS Dorian from 98L, it's got until tomorrow to become Dorian until he dies in the dry air in front of him. Ryan1000 21:09, July 23, 2013 (UTC)

I do not want this storm to develop unless it becomes Tropical Depression Four or Hurricane Dorian. I am getting sick of all the recent weak storms. Anyways, this invest is looking good. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:43, July 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not looking good right now and models are trending south if it can survive it may strength near the lesser antilles.Not going to be a fish after all.Allanjeffs 23:07, July 23, 2013 (UTC)

Models have made a huge shift southward. It's looking like 98L/TD4/Dorian will be able to survive into the western Atlantic, that's if it survives the upcoming cool water in the next few days. We'll see if it can survive the upcoming cool water and if it can manage to be designated tomorrow or if we'll have to wait for a few days. Dorian will still probably be a weak little storm though. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:30, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope it can survive. I mean, I don't want an epic fail/flop storm that just steals a name off the list. If this develops, this should either remain a tropical depression, or strengthen to a hurricane. I don't want another weak TS. If this survives, I hope this will become a hurricane and remain at sea. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 02:09, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * 98L is on the Brink of classification expect td 4 or Ts Dorian soon,Steven you are going to get accustom to that,in 2012 We have Patty, and Joyce and other laughable storms in 2011 we had Franklin and Jose.Every season have weaklings.Allanjeffs 02:12, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * There is a possibility it could reach the Antillies in the long run, but it'll have a hard enough time surviving the dry air in front of it. Most of the models take it to the northernmost Lesser Antillies, near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, in about 5 days or so. The other models take it just north of the Antillies and later out to sea. I doubt this will be more than a tropical storm by that time, but it still bears some watching. Like I mentioned earlier, there will be plenty of waves like this one that will weaken the SAL throughout the heart of the season. I highly doubt this will end up being a powerful Cape Verde hurricane, but it's opening the lid for them to come later on in the season. And yeah Allan, almost every season has some failure, one notable exception being 1950. I hope we don't get many this year though, failure storms are boring :| Ryan1000 02:28, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Special tropical outlook issue my become Dorian pretty soon and upgrade to 70%.Btw I hate more td than weak ts.I don`t want tropical depressions this year.Allanjeffs 02:49, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ryan btw Dry air is not the problem,it has a lot of moisture that protect it.The problem is the cold water it will traverse for 2 or 3 days if it can survive that,it may start strengthening.Allanjeffs 02:55, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'd personally be alright with a TD; it would mean one less name gone to waste, plus TDs add variety. I just hope that the 10th TD becomes something significant this year (the tenth depression of the season has been unlucky in recent years. It became Fabian in 2003, but only three times since then has it become something noteworthy: it reached hurricane strength in 2006, when it was named Isaac; it caused some tornado damage as an unnamed depression in 2007; and it caused heavy flooding in Texas in 2010 after strengthening into Tropical Storm Hermine. Besides the 2007 one, the 2004, 2005, and 2011 TD 10s also failed to become named, and last year it got stuck with Joyce.) --HurricaneMaker99 04:03, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
AL, 04, 2013072406,, BEST, 0, 136N, 272W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M, Finally, hope it becomes Dorian.Allanjeffs 07:37, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * If they get 40mph it meets the criteria no matter if its only for six hours,The NHC needs to be consistent with the definition.Allanjeffs 04:20, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * There is dry air in it's way Allan, as noted in the latest NHC forecast discussion on TD 4. Cooler water is also a problem, but dry air is a more prominent one imo. They see it going only to 45 mph as it quickly paces west-northwest. After it traverses the cooler water and dry air environment, they expect interaction with an upper-level trough and create southwesterly shear which should keep it in check even more. However, I'm not sure if it'll stay at 45 mph all the way through. To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if TD 4 (Dorian-to be) dies sometime along the way, then regenerates later on. Ryan1000 11:44, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dorian is here :D  AL, 04, 2013072412,, BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D,Allanjeffs 12:42, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Updated he is stronger than most believe he would peak. AL, 04, 2013072412,, BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D, Maybe hurricane status after all is not crazy.Allanjeffs 13:15, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Dorian
Per what Allan said. Up on NHC. Ryan1000 14:29, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like my chance will have to wait two more years :/ --HurricaneMaker99 14:42, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dorian isn't guranteed to die, it actually looks a lot better than I thought it would on the latest sattelite imagery. It even might have a chance of being a hurricane in the long run, if it survives the dry air and cooler waters in front of it. Ryan1000 14:48, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

Well, you can't fuss over an already named storm. Whatever it is, is what it'll always be. Until 2019 that is. Dorian is heading right into the hostile line of dry air, strong winds, and cold ocean temps. I really do not expect the season's first hurricane out of Dorian, he could possibly dissipate within the dry air and then emerge out and regenerate. But regeneration might be hard for Dorian to do as a broad area of low pressure to the north of the Caribbean islands is expected to rip any circulation a part. Dorian is going to have to be a flop, it's too bad. I guess Don from 2011 is his long lost relative. ST✪12 14:48, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

Yes! Dorian is here. Let's see if he fails :D Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:14, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * You guys are so negative! :P Dry air isn't the problem, neither is shear. In fact, this storm has nearly perfect conditions outside of the few days of 25C water. 25C isn't that cold for tropical storms, and NHC mentioned that: "THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR BEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS. " The models show so much uncertainty with this track afterwards that after a few days we really don't know what it's conditions will really be. It all depends on how it survives the cold water. Yqt1001 (talk) 15:21, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Um? Yes dry air and wind shear are the problem, otherwise the NHC's forecast would be bringing it up to a major. -.- Sure its going to try and maintain as it passes through the dry air, a lot of healthy inflow storms like this always do that. Cold waters are also a problem, if Dorian stays over cold water too long, then it'll weaken, it's only a minimal tropical storm and is quite small. It'll weaken more than a little bit when it moves into more hostile conditions, but, it doesn't mean it'll dissipate. Remember some track maps from the NHC can be false, remember Joyce from last year? Joyce was expected to strengthen and sling past Bermuda, but due to the unfavorable conditions and neighboring shear from Isaac, Joyce dissipated sooner than expected. Another example would be Chantal of this year. It was expected to make a strong landfall in Hispaniola and then affect the Florida coast, but it went south of Hispaniola and dissipated south of Cuba due to the unfavorable conditions that are plaguing the Atlantic right now. Dorian could dissipate as it gets the full brink of dry air and shear, but regeneration isn't out of the question. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 15:40, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I don't see any shear affecting the system. Dry air is there yes, but Dorian has a great moisture shield. I can see shear affecting it days from now, but for now it's sole problem is the cold water. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:29, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

I don't honestly expect to see a noticeable change in Dorian's intensity (hurricane-strength) until it reaches the Antillies by Monday, or possibly a little later than that. Whether or not it will affect the U.S. in the long run remains a mystery. I hope another trough comes along and wheels it out to sea, like has happened for the past several seasons. But it's way too far out to tell. Ryan1000 18:11, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

If Dorian doesn`t weaken or mantain strength it would probably become a hurricane now most models have it as a hurricane and the gfs even have near or at major hurricane status.Allanjeffs 18:37, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * That's not good for the Antillies in the long run...hopefully, if it intensifies, it'll pick up the Westerlies and turn out to sea, where we can root on it to get as strong as it can, without people getting hurt. :D But, on the flip side, there is a possibility the ridge could strengthen in the latter half of the forecast period (indicated by the GFS) and it could crash into the islands as a strong hurricane. Hopefully it picks option one and heads seaward. Ryan1000 18:43, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erm, ok then. I'm sure he'll intensify slowly. I'm sure Dorian Gray will become this year's major, but if he does that, he would probably be nothing more than an Earl of 2010. I'm seeing him as at least a Category 1 due to the fact that he has formed in an area where strong storms are produced.


 * Tropical Storm Dorian Forms


 * I have a video update here. If you want to have a look at it, feel free to do so. This is courtesy of the Weather Channel. Oh Dorian, please don't become a major... Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 19:17, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

New advisory keeps Dorian at the same intensity it was at before. Not forecast to strengthen in the short term anymore, but the long-term forecast has been raised to 50 kt. NHC is saying that the environment should be more favorable near the end of the forecast period than previously expected. --HurricaneMaker99 21:00, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * That's unfortunate...worse, some long-term forecasts from a few of the models show the trough off of the southeastern U.S. not being strong enough to force Dorian out to sea, which means we could be looking at a possible U.S. landfall in 7 or 8 days, and by then Dorian could be a powerful storm...this storm is very ominous for something so early in the season. Ryan1000 21:17, July 24, 2013 (UTC)

Oh please let Dorian effect something! I'm not in favor in death and destruction, but I like it when I name gets its perks during a season. I really don't think Dorian's going to be a Hugo or an Ike like people have been mentioning, bringing the system towards the western land masses and becoming a hurricane. But the possibility is still there. As Yqt mentioned, Dorian does indeed have a large moisture field which is shielding the all important center of circulation. Hopefully this shield doesn't break apart as it pushes through the drier air. Hopefully it'll be protected enough to pass the hostile eastern Atlantic and then maybe strengthen a little in the western half. Hurricane Dorian isn't out of the question either, possibilities are still out there. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 21:48, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Sto, I have something to support "Hurricane Dorian"


 * Ermahgerd_derern.gif. He could become a C1/2. Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 21:57, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Um? I don't see how this supports a "Hurricane Dorian". The NHC's forecast percentage for Dorian to become a hurricane is at a very low 13%. How is that a sign that Dorian is likely to become a hurricane? It makes it seem less likely to me. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 22:03, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not to mention that image is outdated. The 5pm advisory says that Dorian's chances of hurricane strength peak at 18% at 96 hours. --HurricaneMaker99 23:01, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dorian looks to be strengthening even in colder waters should be up to 60mph at 11pm if trends continue.I hope the trough save the US because Dorian looks poise to strength and the Ridge looks to be intensifying.Allanjeffs 23:05, July 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * AL, 04, 2013072500,, BEST, 0, 149N, 324W, 50, 1000, TS.Allanjeffs 00:45, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Since your post, the 00z update for Dorian's ATCF file was apparently adjusted back down to where the storm was before :/ --HurricaneMaker99 01:59, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah they took it down again.Allanjeffs 02:28, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

Guess it hasn't gone past 50 mph...wait till later I guess. The track hasn't changed much either, just north of the upper Lesser Antillies by Monday. Ryan1000 02:53, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * The short-term weakening has been booted from this forecast though, with the long-term intensity forecast raised a bit to 55 kts. From the NHC: "AN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE WATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR." --HurricaneMaker99 02:57, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Maybe we could be looking at a hurricane sooner than I thought. Still not sure where Dorian is poised to go beyond the northern Lessers after Monday, but I'm keeping my eye on that. Six-E (Flossie) could be a long-term threat to Hawaii. Ryan1000 03:05, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

And now 60/999. May become a hurricane soon. Ryan1000 08:59, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 60mph over cold waters,Amazing,anyways the US really needs to watch this one.I believe a track like Floyd is possible.Allanjeffs 08:59, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

Dorian looks to be on the track towards becoming a hurricane. I track such a Floyd from 1999 is a little far fetched, but it doesn't mean it's impossible. It looks like Dorian's large moisture field is shielding it from dry air that is around it. Wind shear won't be the problem for a few more days. Hey, does anyone remember storms like Grace from 2009 and Vince from 2005? They formed over completely cold waters, cold water isn't always the issue. A lot of Atlantic storms are tough against cold water. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 14:20, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, sometimes storms in ATL are awfully persistent. It's gotten to be a pretty well-organized storm, but I'm still highly uncertain about what this will do when it reaches the east coast. Ryan1000 14:40, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Slight weakening is forecast again for the next 12 hours, but the new forecast brings Dorian to the cusp of hurricane strength in four days. --HurricaneMaker99 14:55, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this will reach hurricane strength in about a few days. It also looks like a possible threat to the US in the long term. Stay tuned. Things could get nasty with this one in the long term. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:21, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * The current model projections for Dorian's path either take a sharp northward turn when it heads north of the Antillies and out to sea, or having it make a headlong rush into the Bahamas and then Cuba or Florida. Not one of them takes it to North Carolina though. But Dorian's future with the U.S. is still highly uncertain, we'll get a better idea by Sunday or Monday. Ryan1000 17:43, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * It weaken slightly which was logical,would strength later on.Allanjeffs 18:40, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

Dorian has actually been pretty much the same storm for the past several hours, no changes in intenisty since the 60 mph upgrade this morning. NHC forecast track still doesn't show a hurricane, but it may become one sooner than they think. Ryan1000 20:11, July 25, 2013 (UTC)

No I mean in ATCF but they bring it back to 60mph later on.Allanjeffs 20:50, July 25, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, it hasn't changed much now, still on the general path to just north of the Antillies. Also, 99L has died. Ryan1000 00:45, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Update, now it's down a bit to 50 mph and 1001 mbars. The NHC track also has Dorian heading farther south in the late forecast period, towards central Cuba and possibly into the straits of Florida after that. But all the time as a tropical storm, it could become a hurricane once it gets out of the unfavorable conditions it's in. Ryan1000 03:06, July 26, 2013 (UTC)

Dorian has weakened, it is now down to 50mph and 1001mbar. That's a worrisome advisory, this means its moisture field is almost completely used up by the dry air. Dorian better move to the west a little faster, or it could dissipate within the dry air. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 03:07, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * It almost looks like an open tropical wave now; unless Dorian escapes the dry air, he could easily die later today unless he gets his act together. Ryan1000 11:09, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now down to 1006 mbar. Dorian could die at this rate... Ryan1000 15:55, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now down to 1010mbar and 45mph. Dorian is going to be gone very soon. No hurricane here. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 21:08, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not to mention the circulation is barely even closed. Yeah, Dorian's doomed, sadly :( --HurricaneMaker99 21:12, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * From being a overachiever to a underachiever.I am dissappoint and with this name throw out to a weak storm.My heart melts.Allanjeffs 02:17, July 27, 2013 (UTC)

You might need to get your heart checked out. I don't see how this name was wasted, even if Dorian does dissipate forever tonight, which isn't completely likely or guaranteed yet. Dorian is a record breaking storm, one of the furthest east in July, while not as awesome as Bertha, it still has it's bragging rights. Nor is it completely weak, 50kts is half way to hurricane strength, so it was a moderate tropical storm! Yqt1001 (talk) 23:50, July 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dorian is weakening rapidly right now. It also looks terrible on satellite imagery, and it should dissipate by tomorrow. Since this didn't become a hurricane or affect land, looks like Dorian is a FAIL! Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 00:24, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * I give credit to Dorian for trying, but...a fish is a fish. If it dies out to sea, I can't give him much respect. Ryan1000 00:48, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Down to 35 kt on ATCF. --HurricaneMaker99 02:01, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * I mean I respect that he was given a name,but he is weakening faster that I thought it may not be out for now but it look like it will be if convection doesn`t redevelop.Allanjeffs 02:17, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dorian is now forecast by the NHC to become a remnant low in a day or so; Avila was actually tempted to end it now and declare Dorian post-tropical due to the lack of convection, but since Dorian's moving into an area of warmer waters and lighter shear, he kept advisories going. --HurricaneMaker99 02:55, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Next advisory will probably be the last.Allanjeffs 17:36, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * I was right,downgrade to tw.AL, 04, 2013072718,, BEST, 0, 187N, 536W, 35, 1011, WV.Allanjeffs 18:34, July 27, 2013 (UTC)

What a waste of a name! I wanted a hurricane, but instead get an incredibly weak system. Anyway, Dorian's at 35 kt/1011 mbar. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:16, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * I was hoping for more, but oh well. Sorry Dorian, but...you fail. Ryan1000 19:55, July 27, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of Dorian (91L)
Fail.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:41, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * I guess this could be expected of the post-2010 Atlantic basin. Maybe it's that only 7 out of 19 storms in 2011 became hurricanes, maybe it's that 2012 had only 12 major hurricane hours in the entire season, maybe it's that Chantal and Dorian both let us down, or maybe it's that I'm simply expecting too much of July, but I feel as though the pattern since 2011 has favored fails, or weak storms in general. Frankly, I'm sick of it. I'm not asking for destructive hurricanes like Karl, Irene, Isaac or Sandy, but a nice, powerful major hurricane that either stays out at sea or does little harm would be nice, like Danielle, Julia, Katia, and especially Ophelia. Anything along the lines of Ophelia - where a storm fails at first but becomes something great later on - would be freaking amazing. Maybe I should stop ranting now, because like the old saying goes, "be careful what you wish for..." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:53, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Regeneration is not going to happen with Dorian. Dorian was a flop for this season. Goodbye Dorian, hopefully you'll be more intense in 2019. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 22:50, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I agree. There is no real exciting activity from 2011-onwards and I haven't tracked much storms in this period. Many records were broken throughout 2007-2010. We had generally interesting storms to track then; in 2007, two cat-5s simultaneously made landfall at that intensity, September broke records, Humberto and Lorenzo pulled off explosively. In 2008, we have consecutive series of major hurricanes in every month expect for June, Bertha outliving every July Atlantic storm in history, Fay intensifying inland Okeechobee as well as making landfall in Florida over and over again, leading the train of storms that would follow in late August and early September. The smallest storm Marco was introduced and Paloma was pulled off. 2009 had a very late start but featured Fred, the strongest storm at that location; Grace, the northeasternmost formation and the mighty Nor'Ida. The Cape Verde train came along in 2010, where every storm had its backstory. Ever since then there weren't much interesting storms. Sure, Sandy and Nadine pop on the list but the spirit just isn't there. Also, don't worry too much about wishing for hurricanes. Hurricanes are mostly inevitable and it is best for everyone to prepare for them instead of hoping for bust seasons. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:09, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * Most of the worst of the season is coming up anyways. I'm not surprised storms like Chantal and Dorian died out before they really did anything, the conditions just aren't ripe for powerful hurricanes at this time of year. 2005 has to be the most notorious exception, with two cat. 4's recorded before August, the first time that ever happened. But then again, 2005 just didn't know when to stop. It was a horrible season I hope we never see a repeat of again. If Chantal and Dorian formed in late August/early to mid-September, they easily could've been incredibly powerful major hurricanes and could've caused god knows how much damage and deaths. However, I will say that Chantal and Dorian, and many other African waves right now, are going to weaken the Saharan Air Layer during the heart of the season. That, and the Bermuda High favors storms heading far west towards the U.S, Mexico, Canada, Bermuda, and the Caribbean this year. If you thought the storms thus far this year were flops, just wait until you see what August and September have to say. We can hope the Bermuda High recurves these storms well before they hit land, but that's not the current situation. Like I said before, Dorian and Chantal are merely the beginning of what could easily be a monster Cape Verde-hurricane season. Keep your eyes out from now on, because conditions won't be unfavorable forever. Ryan1000 23:44, July 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * I don't care for the ATL too much, but there has been a general pattern of non-MDR storms the past two years. But what I don't think people realize is how rare the time period 2005-10 was. But before I get on to a rant that becomae biases, ill stop here. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:48, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

We haven't had a significant Cape Verde-type hurricane in the Atlantic since 2011, and conditions do favor lots of strong ones this year. Not trying to doomcast or anything, but the facts are this won't be any negligible season whatsoever. This year is poised to be a very active season, and could unfortunately have lots of severe storms. The U.S. has gone 8 years without a major hurricane landfall. Sure Sandy and Ike were incredibly destructive storms but neither were official major hurricanes when they made landfall, and I have an unfortunate feeling we're gonna see a lot of landfalls this season. Ryan1000 03:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

7, Ryan 2013 is not done,and 2011 Didn`t produce the beatiful cape verde majorse we see 2011 only had Katia.I don`t count Ophelia as one.I believe we are going to see more potent storms as August roll,and more landfall.I would be surprise if the US is save this year again.Allanjeffs 03:37, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

This are the remmanents of Dorian is something similar to what happen to Chantal.Allanjeffs 12:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'll be surprised if this gets any higher than a 20%. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 01:44, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * At least we had a significant Cape Verde hurricane in 2011. And yeah, like I said, August and September aren't even here yet, so don't get busty about this season yet. Oh and btw, Dorian is down, but he's not out. Remnants are now at 10% on the TWO. Ryan1000 10:43, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dorian is looking better and its up again to 20%.He might come back from the death.Allanjeffs 12:12, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * There's no need for the 91L header, we can just put anything about the remnants of Dorian under his header. An air force reconiassance is going to investigate this disturbance later today, in the event it may become Dorian again. Ryan1000 12:20, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

I am hoping Dorian can regenerate. Right now, it is nothing more than a pathetic epic fail. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:15, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Recon departing for Dorian in an hour or so. If they find a closed low level circulation, the current convection will warrant this being classified as Dorian again. It's worth noting that the models have shifted back north from it hitting Cuba and instead shows an intensifying hurricane at Floridan landfall. You guys might've pissed it off. Ryan, you really should've learned your lesson from Ophelia in 2011! I know I did. Still, it's only the early models that show this, however it is q uite the shift from a few days ago nonetheless. Yqt1001 ( talk ) 14:45, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * It currently is forecast to hit Florida as a cat. 1, but that's pushing it imo. There's still some shear near that area and I wouldn't expect Dorian to be more than a 60 mph TS at it's landfall in Florida or so, if that. I'm currently more impressed with how Flossie is managing to survive in the Central Pacific. Almost all of the models showed it weakening by now but instead she strengthened to a 65 mph storm today. I'm very impressed by that, but Dorian, on the other hand, died...Don't get overconfident with ex-Dorian, he shouldn't be more than a TS on the way to south Florida. He doesn't even look that well on sattelite imagery. Ryan1000 15:38, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * I hope Dorian can regenerate. If it doesn't, it will just be a pathetic epic failure that just steals a name off the list and didn't even affect land. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:48, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, hopefully, if it does regenerate, it won't be more than a TS. Some models outright bomb this thing near Florida, but I think it will turn north either immediately before or after making landfall in Florida and end up in the Carolinas in 4-5 days time. If, by some chance, Dorian does become a hurricane, hopefully it won't go past cat. 1. Anything beyond that is asking for trouble. Ryan1000 15:56, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's up to 30%, and here's what it says in the TC Outlook: "A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...


 * IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS


 * WINDS TO GALE FORCE...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF


 * THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS


 * CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TO DETERMINE IF A CLOSED


 * LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER HAVE REDEVELOPED.


 * ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR


 * REGENERATION...BUT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD LEAD


 * TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM


 * CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE


 * NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO


 * 20 MPH...PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TODAY


 * AND MONDAY...AND MOVING OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND


 * SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY." Here we go!!! Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 18:38, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * So,Dorian is coming back it seems,The NHC plane has found a COC.Allanjeffs 18:35, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

ATCF is showing conflicting signs that Dorian is back, calling it an open wave while also calling it Dorian instead of an invest. AL, 91, 2013072818,, BEST, 0, 200N, 625W, 35, 1013, WV, 34, NEQ, 80, 0, 0, 80, 1015, 100, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, S, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:06, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

Still not here the center is not well defined.Allanjeffs 19:58, July 28, 2013 (UTC)

Otto, you should be very surprised! Dorian is coming back FULL FORCE (a la Emily, Maria, and Ophelia) per this NHC GTWO:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 PM EDT SUN JUL 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...

IS PRODUCING A SMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS GALE-FORCE WINDS...A FEW HUNDRED MILES

NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE

CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS OF A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A

WELL-DEFINED CENTER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZED

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO THE REFORMATION OF A TROPICAL

CYCLONE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR

REGENERATION...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...

OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES

WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS DISTURBANCE IS

EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND

PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND MOVE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS

ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS

FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS

HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:46, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Maybe the NC scenario isn't as plausible as a GoM scenario. However, none of the models want this to be more than a cat. 1 or so when it passes into the straits of Florida. Need to be wary of this one, Dorian could very well take revenge on the shear and dry air that once killed him. Ryan1000 23:55, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Down to 40%. Maybe Dorian isn't coming back to us after all... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:34, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Also, 91L has been deactivated for some reason? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:17, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dorian may not be coming back:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA...AS WELL AS EARLY DATA FROM AN AIR

FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION...INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO CLOSED

LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...

WHICH ARE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO

OCCUR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION APPEARS TO

BE DIMINISHING. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REMNANTS

OF DORIAN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS

ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND

COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS

FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS

HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BERG

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:50, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, Ex-Dorian is still in a hostile environment. It may not be coming back to us after all, or perhaps not until it hits the GoM. Ryan1000 22:31, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Down to 20%. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:40, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like it won't redevelop after all. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:48, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

And Dorian is essentially dead. It is at near 0% and conditions are only getting worse. Hats off to Gaston (2010) 2.0. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:20, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Due to interaction with an upper-level low, ex-Dorian should be off NHC real soon. It tried but failed. Ryan1000 19:30, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks like Dorian is an epic failure. Try again in 2019. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:59, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * He was not Gaston,Gaston was more of a fail.Allanjeffs 06:08, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * And...the remnants of Dorian have finally departed from NHC. Dorian did try hard to survive those unfavorable conditions early in his life, but he couldn't defy his fate forever. Ryan1000 13:44, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Or have they? Ex-Dorian doesn't want to quit. Now at 20% on the TWO again, for the next two and five days. De-archived temporarily. Ryan1000 18:16, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * And Dorian wants to come again from the dead its at 20%Allanjeffs 18:05, August 1, 2013 (UTC) comment restored by Dylan


 * (edit conflict) I have resurrected the discussion regarding Dorian and moved Allan's comment from the August section to here since Dorian apparently isn't dead after all. By the way, might I suggest giving Dorian its own archive once it finally dies out once and for all? While I can definitely understand an argument that it isn't even remotely notable enough, this discussion presently contains roughly 53kb of text. That's just under the size of Ernesto's archive from last year, and certainly enough to merit separating it from the monthly archive, IMO. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:21, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Sure, I wouldn't be bad with Dorian having his own archive. Even if he didn't do much, he was still talked about a lot here. Ryan1000 21:42, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

Dorian is not giving up without a fight! He is back at a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation. We could potentially see the storm regenerate! Also, it should be noted Dorian is the second-easternmost July forming tropical storm on record. It formed further east than Dennis, Emily, Anna, Bertha '96, and EVERY other July storm besides Bertha '08. This is what separates Dorian from Gaston IMO. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:32, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Second-easternmost July storm on record? Awesome! But I don't think it will regenerate. It has a chance, but I doubt it. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:05, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The Air Force Reconnaissance flight for today has been cancelled. It might not regenerate after all, but it's awfully persistent in trying to have a chance of regenerating. Ryan1000 14:00, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Dorian will NOT quit! Its remnants are back at a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development. It could intensify even more, but I doubt it will completely regenerate. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:12, August 3, 2013 (UTC)

Don't get too excited. The NHC isn't expecting this to regenerate. It's expected to merge with a cold front and then be done with. Dorian is still a flop to me, but its remnants stuck around for a long time. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 04:06, August 3, 2013 (UTC)

Actually is code red and advisories may be reiniterate I knew he could do it.only a slight increase and we have ts Dorian and not td dorian.He is coming for a last laugh.Allanjeffs 05:35, August 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Dorian
He finally could.Not expect to strength but he might at last.He is no longer a fail in my books after the feat it did.Allanjeffs 09:43, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well! Didn't see this one coming. Not expected to be a TS again though. Ryan1000 13:04, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dude, this thing just won't die! I think he will become a remnant low tonight. He also has a badass 1013 mbar pressure! Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:01, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Umm Steven, that is one of the weakest pressures I've ever seen from any storm. 1013 is no where near bada$$. Anything in the 800's pressure is bada$$. But yeah, Dorian doesn't wanna quit. It must have heard us saying it was a flop and it didn't want to disappoint us. Not expected to strengthen back into a tropical storm, but some light rain is possible in the Florida area. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 15:42, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * I can not believe Dorian pulled himself together! This is incredible! However, its time grows short. It should be post-tropical, according to the NHC, in 12 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:41, August 3, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Dorian
Waste of time.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:46, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Hey, it was nice while it lasted! The very fact that Dorian regenerated is enough for me, even if it did dissipate again after less than a day. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:11, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * I should note the rather amusing error with the NHC's image of Dorian's cumulative wind history. Since Dorian first dissipated while still at tropical storm strength, and regenerated as a depression a week later... Dorian cumulative wind history.gif --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:21, August 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * He's finally down and out. Time for his own archive. Ryan1000 22:59, August 3, 2013 (UTC)