Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season/July

July
Welcome to July in the Western Pacific! It has been a little boring here recently, but that should soon turn around, as some computer models are forecasting. I predict 7 depressions, 4 storms, 3 severe tropical storms, and 3 typhoons for July, two of which should come by next week. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:15, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Right here is a good candidate for the first July typhoon of the season, Invest 90W! Located 120 nm east of Chuuk, multispectural imagery (MSI) shows a broad trough with flaring convection, containing several vortices. With five to ten knots of wind shear and a developing poleward outflow channel feeding a TUTT cell, the models go wicked with the invest after 96 hours. We are bound to see some significant development here! Winds are at 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa). For the next 24 hours, however, its chances of formation are assessed to be low. Personally, I see a Category 1-2 typhoon smashing into the Philippines and China sometime in the next 10 days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:15, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Invest 90W is now at 8.4N 148.3E, 335 nm southeast of Guam. Enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a consolidating yet poorly organized LLCC with forming convective banding on the southern quadrant. With good outflow and low vertical wind shear, the environment is favorable for additional intensification. Steady intensification is expected from most models over the next several days as Invest 99W moves westwards at seven knots. Per the JTWC, one-minute winds are estimated to be at 18 to 23 knots (21 to 26 mph) (I assure you this is not an error) with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). A TCFA has been issued and the chances of formation for the next 24 hours have rapidly increased to high. Meanwhile, the JMA has classified Invest 90W as a weak tropical depression with ten-minute winds of <30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). Given its large size, I personally see a Category 2 typhoon at most from our new system. Go, WPAC!!! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:09, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Don't get too excited Andrew, this one is forecast to become a category 3 in 4 days and head towards southern Japan as a cat 2/cat 1. Future Neoguri could be the first big storm of the season. Ryan1000 11:15, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 08W
This storm is really beginning to take off. The JMA report the depression's winds to be 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg). In 24 hours, the JMA predict a temporary forecast peak of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute winds) /1000 mbar (hPa). Meanwhile, the JTWC have recently upgraded Invest 90W into Tropical Storm 08W. They report winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). In roughly 96 hours, however, the JTWC explode 08W to a 105 knot (120 mph) (1-minute winds) Category 3 typhoon very near Kadena Air Force Base with gusts of 130 knots (150 mph). So I will stop cheering for this storm and pray the best for Japan. Also, the entire northern half of this system is virtually nonexistent. Is dry air penetrating Tropical Storm 08W? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, July 3, 2014 (UTC)

The Euro is predicting a cat 5 of this system, not sure what name it will be but our three best models are precting a cat 5 so its probable it might happen.Allanjeffs 21:49, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * That's not good, especially if it holds onto that intensity far enough north. I don't expect it to if it does so, storms normally weaken quite a bit before landfall in Japan, but they still better prepare for it. Allan, like I mentioned before, this storm would be Neoguri if it's named. Ryan1000 22:02, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Nothing much has changed from the JMA side, but the JTWC now report winds of 45 knots (50 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph). The JTWC now take Tropical Storm 08W to 125 knots (145 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 150 knots (175 mph). Yikes, now I will be quiet about this system. Even worse, a forecasted Category 3-4 landfall is predicted over southern Japan southeast of Sasago. The tropics are taking a turn for the worst... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:34, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Haven't checked out the WPac lately, especially due to Arthur and the EPac storms, but I think 08W might be a potentially destructive storm for Japan. And yep, the tropics do seem to be taking a turn for the worst with this WPac storm and Arthur in the Atlantic. Prepare, Japan!  Steve  820  ✉   04:54, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

Typhoon Neoguri (Florita)
Oh my goodness, 08W is really beginning to take off now! It is already classified as Typhoon Neoguri (a South Korean word for raccoon dog) by the JMA. They estimate winds of 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg). Meanwhile, the JTWC have the typhoon with 65 knot (75 mph, 120 km/h) winds (1-minute) with gusts of 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h). The JMA explode Neoguri to 90 knots (105 mph, 170 km/h) (10-minute winds) /930 mbar (hPa) in the next three days, while the JTWC take it straight to super typhoon intensity - 130 knots (150 mph, 240 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 160 knots (185 mph, 300 km/h)! Even more, look at this beast!!! I can see a clear eyewall trying to form in there! The JMA take Neoguri more westwards almost directly over the Ryukyu Islands, and the JTWC have shifted the forecast track westwards so that Kadena Air Force Base, Sasago, Hiroshima, Busan, and the remainder of western Japan and southeastern South Korea will likely witness greater impact. I know everyone is really focused on Arthur right now in the Atlantic, but Neoguri will be a far greater threat to Japan than Arthur ever was to America. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:57, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

Well Andrew post first when I was editing but people, forget about Arthur models are forecasting this thing to have a pressure of 892 or lower I have never seen the models come with that type of pressure. Btw the gfs is even showing a storm even bigger than the Phillippines. This is scary.Allanjeffs 21:01, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * I know, this is a really scary storm. Japan might even get devastated in the long run. Stay safe Japan! And about the models forecasting 892 mbar pressure, that's just really, really insane! :O--  Steve  820  ✉   21:49, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Current JTWC forecast makes it a cat 5 in Okinawa. That's very scary. It's also forecast to turn and hit the northwestern edge of the southernmost island of Japan, and that area has had the top 3 most destructive typhoons in Japan's history. This worries me a lot more than Arthur. Stay safe... Ryan1000 01:53, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri is now at 75 knots (85 mph, 135 km/h) (10-minute winds) /960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg) per the JMA and at 90 knots (105 mph, 170 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 110 knots (125 mph). The JMA steers it very near Kadena Air Force Base as a 90 knot (105 mph) (10-minute), 925 mbar (hPa; 27.31 inHg) mega typhoon, while the JTWC take it straight over Kadena as a 140 knot (160 mph) (1-minute winds) Category 5 monster with gusts of 170 knots (195 mph). RI is commencing in Neoguri as we speak. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:59, July 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast calls for Neoguri to be a 140 mph storm when it nears (or hits) southern Japan. Japan hasn't seen a category 4 typhoon since Super Typhoon Jean in 1965, which hit the same area Neoguri is expected to. Evacuations better be under way now or very soon, because this could be one of the strongest typhoons to hit Japan in a long time. Ryan1000 11:25, July 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Man, this is starting to scare me. Japan might be devastated by the strongest storm to strike them since 1965! Well, preperations better be underway, 'cause this storm could be really devastating...--  Steve  820  ✉   16:38, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * After Arthur has dissipated everyone's attention is now on Neoguri, and I have to say: Wow this thing has EXPLODED! It was just a Cat. 1 strength typhoon last night, so imagine my shock when I woke up and saw that this was a Cat. 4. It is also expected to be the first Cat. 5 super typhoon of the season! leeboy100 (talk) 18:31, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Leeboy, Arthur is not done yet; Canada is still feeling some effects from it. In regards to Neoguri, it is going through a clear round of rapid intensification. The JMA have upgraded Neoguri's winds to 85 knots (100 mph, 160 km/h) (10-minute winds) and lowered its pressure to 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg), easily displacing Faxai as the season's strongest storm. In addition, the JTWC now report winds of 115 knots (130 mph, 210 km/h) gusting to 140 knots (160 mph), making the typhoon, as Leeboy said, a Category 4 system. The JMA now take Neoguri even more westwards than before, slicing straight through the heart of the Ryukyu Islands and then aiming directly for Jeju Island. Numerous major Asian cities, including Taipei, Shanghai, Seoul, Osaka, and Tokyo, are all in the forecast cone for Neoguri, which could affect dozens of millions of people. Fortunately, the agency expects some slight weakening from Neoguri, but not before reaching peak winds of 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 920 mbar (hPa; 27.17 inHg). This would displace Ian and Ita as the strongest system worldwide in terms of pressure. At the same time, the JTWC take the typhoon very near Kadena Air Force Base and Okinawa as a monster 150 knot (175 mph, 280 km/h) (1-minute winds) system with accompanying gusts of 180 knots (205 mph, 330 km/h)! Not only can I not recall a typhoon of that intensity ever striking Okinawa, but Danas from last year looks like a failure compared to Neoguri! Even more, much of Japan and all of South Korea are in the JTWC forecast cone! You better fear this stud! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:21, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri has been named Florita by PAGASA. They report winds of 160 km/h (100 mph, 85 knots) (10-minute) gusting to 195 km/h (120 mph, 105 knots). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:41, July 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is really strong, and it'll probably be worse for mainland Japan than Okinawa due to the larger population and infrastructure. Arthur is moving northward through Atlantic Canada right now, and he'll be gone for good in a day or two. Neoguri will probably be a cat 5 in a few days, hopefully it weakens enough before it's landfall in Japan, the last thing they need is a destructive typhoon. Ryan1000 21:19, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Holy crap, this is not good at all, not only will this probably be a Cat. 5 it will affect MILLIONS of people. Why is it that when we have a big super typhoon in the WPAC it has to cause so much death and destruction half the time. It would be much better if all these Cat. 5 super typhoons stayed out to sea and then they would be beautiful to track. Stay safe, everyone
 * leeboy100 (talk) 23:57, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * I was expecting to see a Cat. 5 when I woke up, the good news (not really) is this is still a cat. 4, bad news is that it's still a huge typhoon and will likely affect lots of landmasses. BTW where did everyone else go?  leeboy100 (talk) 14:40, July 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I haven't checked what the JMA has said, but according to the JTWC, Neoguri hasn't budged in intensity since it hit 120 kts (1-min) yesterday. Maybe it won't be as bad as previously thought... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:53, July 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's forecast to become a cat 5 later on, but if it doesn't intensify much further than where it is now, I agree that it might not be as bad as we initially feared it would be, but it's forecast to peak in a day or two, so the worst may actually be yet to come. Either way, stay tuned. Ryan1000 18:47, July 6, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Where are you guys getting the notion Neoguri is standing still? The JMA now reports winds of 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 935 mbar (hPa; 27.61 inHg). Meanwhile, the JTWC has now classified the typhoon as our year's first super, with winds of 130 knots (150 mph, 240 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 160 knots (185 mph). The JMA forecast a peak intensity of 105 knots (120 mph) (10-minute) /910 mbar (hPa) before a direct hit over much of the Ryukyu Islands, and then to weaken to 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute winds) /950 mbar (hPa) before landfall over Mainland Japan. Shanghai, all of South Korea including Busan, Seoul, and Incheon, and much of Western Japan - containing Kumamoto, Hiroshima, Osaka, Kyoto, Kobe, and Nagoya - are in the JMA forecast cone. The JTWC, on the other hand, expects Neoguri to reach 145 knots (165 mph) (1-minute winds) with gusts of 175 knots (200 mph) just west of Okinawa. They still, however, forecast a very strong landfall for Japan (Category 3+) near Sasebo. Busan and Shanghai are in the JTWC cone, in addition to all of Japan! Look at that crystal clear eye of Neoguri! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:50, July 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * It looks very great and breathtaking. But like I said before, this could get really devastating, hopefully Japan and nearby countries are prepared for Neoguri...--  Steve  820  ✉   15:25, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Last Dvorak estimates put the storm at 4.5/5.5. I don't think it'll be able to restrengthen to Cat 4-5 before it hits colder waters south of Japan. --Fred22 (talk) 15:45, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Something weird is going on with Neoguri. The JMA reports the same winds as before with a slight pressure drop to 930 mbar (hPa; 27.46 inHg). However, per the JTWC, the typhoon has really crashed down to 110 knots (125 mph, 200 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 135 knots (155 mph). This may have been caused by an ERC in the system. Although some forecast models are predicting reintensification, the disruption of Neoguri is significant enough that I agree with Fred's statement - it has lost an oppurtunity to become our season's first Category 5. The JTWC now only expect a landfall of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute) from the typhoon gusting to 85 knots (100 mph) over Kyushu Island near Sasebo. The JMA expect steady weakening from the typhoon, down to 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h) (10-minute) accompanied by a pressure of 980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg) over the next three days. They expect Neoguri's landfall intensity to be of weak typhoon or strong severe tropical storm status. Naha City in Okinawa is reporting gusts of 43 mph along with heavy rain. Miyako-jima is reporting winds of 33 mph gusting to 53 mph. Also, for your information, regardless of how strong Neoguri is at its landfall, Kyushu does not need it. A stationery front brought nearly a foot of rain to some regions of the island, some totals of which are record breaking. Continue to prepare, Japan! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:09, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * There is no ERC in the system. The cause for the weakening is dry air in the <500mb layer. Neoguri should still be devastating for Japan as long as it doesn't lose its warm-core circulation. A TUTT far east of Neoguri could start affecting its outflow to the SE should Neoguri recurve. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:17, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri is down to 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute winds) with a pressure of 945 mbar (hPa) per the JMA. Nothing much has changed from the JTWC side. Shanghai seems to be getting some clouds from the typhoon, where my relations live. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:42, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Neoguri has really shrunk over the past day or so, and now it's forecast to make landfall only as a category 1. It still might cause extensive damage in parts of Nagasaki, but the good news is, it won't be as bad as it could've been. Ryan1000 19:20, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri (pronounced NAW-guh-ree) continues to fall apart. Its eyewall has completely eroded on satellite imagery. The JMA have lowered the typhoon's winds to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute) and raised its pressure to 960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg). The JTWC have lowered Neoguri's one-minute winds to 95 knots (110 mph, 175 km/h) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph, 210 km/h). Both the JMA and JTWC expect the storm to be of barely typhoon intensity at landfall. Much of Hokkaido has been spared from the forecast cone of Neoguri. Wind damage should not be a major concern for Japan, but heavy rainfall which could add on the flooding triggered by a stationery front last week in Kyushu, including Nagasaki. One person has been reported dead, along with 25 injuries. Here you can find a link to some more facts regarding Neoguri, and here you can see a satellite image of the typhoon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:57, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Japan really dodged a bullet from Neoguri, as we could have been seeing a powerful typhoon or possibly super typhoon affecting them. Hopefully Neoguri isn't too bad for them. BigO99 (talk) 01:24, July 9, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri
Well, Neoguri is really quickly crashing apart. The storm is no longer a typhoon per the JMA, with ten-minute winds of 55 knots (65 mph) and a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa). The JTWC still reports a weak typhoon, with winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 85 knots (100 mph). Both the JMA and JTWC expect the storm to hit Kyushu as a moderate tropical storm. The JTWC satellite image shows no eyewall in Neoguri. A second fatality has been reported. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:10, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri is just about to make landfall over Japan. The JTWC has downgraded Neoguri to a strong tropical storm with winds of 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). The JMA has also downgraded the storm slightly to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (10-minute winds) with a pressure pf 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg). Landfall near Sasebo is expected within 12 hours as a moderate tropical storm from both agencies. Neoguri should then graze the Taheiyo Belt of Japan, which contains Osaka, Nagoya, and Tokyo, as a dying system and then become extratropical within 48 to 72 hours. A third fatality has been reported from a drowning offshore of Shikoku following the capsizing of a vessel. It also appears Neoguri's northern and western quadrants have been eroded away. Japan, feel lucky you do not have a super typhoon coming down on your soil right now! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:38, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri has made landfall over Japan near Nagasaki, and it is now over central Kyushu. The storm's pressure has risen to 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg), and JTWC winds have fallen to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h). Extratropical transition is now expected in 24 to 36 hours as the system moves over the most populous regions of Japan. Neoguri is basically dead. Do not be surprised if America starts to feel a little cold. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:28, July 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Neoguri is almost all but dead. The JMA have raised the storm's pressure to 990 mbar (hPa) as it closes in on Nagoya. The storm should graze Tokyo as a weak tropical storm and then become extratropical within 24 hours, per both agencies. Two additional fatalities have been reported from Neoguri. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Luckily it won't be as bad for Japan as it would've been. I'm glad it significantly weakened before reaching Japan, or else it would've been a big disaster. Bye, Neoguri!--  Steve  820  ✉   17:03, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Neoguri
Neoguri is continuing to perish. The JTWC have stopped issuing advisories on the storm, and the JMA have downgraded its winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute). Extratropical transition is expected in the next 12 to 24 hours. Rainfall of 13.20 inches (335.5 mm) of rain has been reported in Kyushu, and parts of central Japan, including Nagoya, will potentially witness 16 inches (400 mm) of rain from Neoguri. From here, the system will indirectly trigger an extreme position of the jet stream similar to the "Polar Vortex" witnessed from January. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:29, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Neoguri
Neoguri has become a remnant low per the JMA. With just seven fatalities, it is clear the storm was not the beast we all feared. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:33, July 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * If you live in the Midwest, you might be wondering why it is so cold. Well, Neoguri's remnants accelerated the Northeastern Pacific jet stream, which amplified a low pressure trough over Alaska. This, in turn, caused a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, developing a high-pressure system. Much of British Columbia and the Northwestern United States have received record high temperatures, and much of Minnesota and Wisconsin has seen temperatures in the 60s...rather cold for this time of year! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:52, July 18, 2014 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
The fun is doubled! A second area of convection dubbed Invest 91W by the JTWC is currently located at 14.4N 130.3E, 495 nm north-northwest of Koror, Palau. Infrared satellite imagery shows flaring convection is present on the northwestern quadrant of a disorganized LLCC. A 1811Z microwave image displays fragile banding loosely wrapping into the LLCC. Compared to Invest 90W, 91W should develop more slowly because of moderate to high vetical wind shear of 10 to 20 knots and fair outflow. JTWC reports winds of 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute winds) with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa), and assesses its probability for development in the next 24 hours as low. Sorry for the WPAC bias, but I am really excited for development here, and I think Invest 91W will become a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 typhoon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:16, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 91W is now located near 13.5N 128.2E, 525 nm northwest of Palau. Multispectural satellite imagery depicts a broad, exposed LLCC with deep disorganized convection to its western side. An 0134Z ASCAT image already shows a closed circulation, however. Broad diffluent flow and moderate to strong easterly vertical wind shear of 15 to 25 knots (15 to 30 knots) are present around the system. The current JTWC intensity is still 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph) (1-minute winds) /1006 mbar (hPa), and the chances of formation for the next 24 hours remain low. If Invest 91W does develop, I predict a moderate tropical storm at strongest. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:55, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, I don't think it'll become much. Might become a TS briefly though.  Steve  820  ✉   04:56, July 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 91W has dissipated and is off the JTWC outlook. Time to focus on Neoguri... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:27, July 4, 2014 (UTC)

09W.RAMMASUN
Please see the individual archive on Rammasun.

JMA Tropical Depression
As Rammasun has ravaged his thunderous roar through the Philippines, a new baby tropical depression has developed behind its back. The JMA has classified this system just east of the Philippines, with winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). They forecast a tentative peak of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-minute winds) /1000 mbar (hPa) for now. Meanwhile, the JTWC have issued a TCFA in anticipation of Invest 93W's development 205 nm northeast of Koror, Palau. Infrared satellite imagery depicts a rapidly consolidating LLCC and formative convective banding along the southern quadrant. Improved consolidation has also been reported through an AMSU-B microwave image with slight east-west elongation. With low vertical wind shear (five to ten knots) and conductive SST's, we could easily see a tropical storm in a couple of days. The JTWC assess Invest 93W's chances of tropical development in the next 24 hours to be high. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:34, July 16, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm 10W
While nothing has changed on the JMA side, Invest 93W has developed into a tropical storm numbered 10W per the JTWC. They report winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h). This storm, like Neoguri and Rammasun, has the potential to become a typhoon due to warm SST's and upper-level conditions. And this could be bad news for the Ryukyu Islands. The latest JTWC forecast aims 10W straight towards the chain with winds of 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph). This part of the world lucked out when Neoguri came along, but maybe not so much for 10W... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:41, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Matmo (Henry)
Following two straight Category 4 typhoons, a third baby storm is in the making. The JMA just upgraded this depression's winds to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) and its pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg), prompting the designation of Tropical Storm Matmo, whose name was submitted by America and means "heavy rain". Like the JTWC, the JMA take Matmo to typhoon intensity - winds of 65 knots (75 mph) (10-minute winds) and a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa). They bring it rather close to Luzon, which has been badly affected by Rammasun already. It looks pretty decent already, and I think typhoon status will be a piece of cake for Matmo. Watch out again, Philippines! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:02, July 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * I feel bad for the Philippines. They already got devastated by Rammasun but now this is coming for them? Continue to be prepared Philippines!! This could worsen the damage caused by Rammasun! :O--  Steve  820  ✉   20:30, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's not heading for the Philippines, this storm should head northward and follow in the footsteps of Neoguri and hit Okinawa or Japan (though hopefully not as strong when it reaches them). Current forecast calls for a cat 2 by the time it reaches up there, or possibly Taiwan. Ryan1000 21:00, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now named 'Henry' by PAGASA. Not expected to hit any landmass in the Philippines though. (But it is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:36, July 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * I got a bit misleaded by Andrew's post above when he said "Watch out again, Philippines!", sorry 'bout that. Anyways, JMA has this storm at 35 kts with gusts going up to 50 kts, and a pressure of 1000 mbars. It is predicted to reach 65 kts (75 mph) with a pressure of 975 mbars by the time it's near the Philippines. It looks like the forecast track shifted a bit westward and makes it skirt past the Philippines and potentially reaching Taiwan or the Ryukyu Islands.--  Steve  820  ✉   15:36, July 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Winds are at 40 knots (45 mph) (1-minute) per the JTWC gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). A recent SSMIS microwave image shows deep convection consolidating around the southwestern quadrant of the LLCC, and low cloud lines are streaming into its center. A subtropical ridge will steer Matmo northwestwards over the next 48 hours, prompting steady intensification. In the long run, the storm is expected to slam into Taiwan with winds of 100 knots (115 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 125 knots (145 mph). This could be bad news for them. Stay tuned, as we have a third destructive storm in the making! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:33, July 18, 2014 (UTC)

Typhoon Matmo
Who gave Matmo the caffeine? Per the JTWC, building deep convection has obscured the LLCC based on MSI (multispectral imagery). Even with a slightly elongated structure, the storm has built a convective banding feature in its southern quadrant. Based on PGTW and KNES Dvorak estimates, Matmo's one-minute winds have been upgraded to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) gusting to 75 knots (85 mph, 135 km/h). Matmo will continue to move northwestwards under the steering influence of a mid-latitude trough, where it will be greeted with warm SST's and improving upper-level conditions in the Philippine Sea. A forecasted peak of 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 130 knots (150 mph) is expected in ~72 hours before interaction with Taiwan will weaken it. Eventually, it should slam into southeastern Mainland China as a strong Category 1 typhoon. On the JMA side, they have already upgraded Matmo to our season's fourth official typhoon, with winds of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (10-minute) and a pressure of 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg). In the next 72 hours, the system is expected to scrape northeastern Luzon and aim straight for Kaohsiung at the intensity Rammasun peaked at (90 kts (105 mph) (10-min) /940 mbar (hPa)). I am beginning to get increasingly concerned about Matmo, even more than I ever was about Rammasun. Shanghai is in the forecast cone, and that is where a number of people I know live. I hope they make it out okay. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:31, July 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * Oh, don't forget, who gave Matmo the Gatorade and energy drinks? :P Anyways, hopefully Taiwan and Shanghai, and your relatives will make it out safe. Prepare, Taiwan and Shanghai!--  Steve  820  ✉   17:15, July 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Taiwan is no stranger to bad typhoons, but at the rate this one is going, it could even be a cat 5 when it makes/nears its landfall. Yes, Shanghai is in the forecast cone, but Matmo will probably remain south of them, god forbid Matmo (or any future typhoon for that matter) pull a Wanda... Ryan1000 22:43, July 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * Matmo is now 541 nm east-southeast of Manila. EIR imagery reveals the typhoon's central deep convection has begun to curl as it becomes more consolidated. The current JTWC intensity is now 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 85 knots (100 mph, 160 km/h). It should continue tracking west-northwestwards into warm SST's in the Philippine Sea. The latest JTWC forecast peaks Matmo with winds of 110 knots (125 mph, 200 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 135 knots (155 mph, 250 km/h). Afterwards, rapid weakening is expected due to land interaction with Taiwan and Mainland China. The JMA have lowered Matmo's forecast peak pressure to 940 mbar (hPa; 27.76 inHg). We have another nasty typhoon in the making... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:59, July 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * Matmo has been relocated to 487 nm east of Manila. MSI continues to show deep convection obscuring the LLCC. Intensive convective banding in the southern quadrant continues to wrap into the LLCC per an SSMI microwave image. Based on Dvorak estimates, however, the JTWC have lowered Matmo's intensity to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 80 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h). As the typhoon gains latitude, the STR carrying it will drag it into decreasing vertical wind shear (VWS) and good favorable outflow. The forecast JTWC peak for now is 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h). Afterwards, Matmo will make landfall in central Taiwan and southeastern China, prompting rapid weakening due to interaction with rugged terrain. No intensity change from the JMA, aside from raising their peak forecast pressure to 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg). I doubt Matmo will become a Category 5 due to the moderate shear around it. Also, does someone have a link to the PAGASA website? My browser will not load it... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:48, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I can't load the JTWC site anymore, my browser (Google Chrome) always says "it took too long to respond". :P Anyways, Matmo ATM is 65 knots (75 mph) with a 975 mbar pressure according to the JMA. It's predicted to reach 75 knots and a 960 mbar pressure by the 23rd but I think it'll get stronger than that. Stay safe Taiwan and China!--  Steve  820  ✉   16:33, July 20, 2014 (UTC)

Hasn't really moved much in intensity over the past 36 hours. Starting to wonder if those lofty intensity forecasts are overestimating Matmo... I hope so. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:07, July 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * Still has a while until landfall, maybe it will follow the JTWC's intensity forecast after all, and only peak as a minimal cat 3 or so, instead of a much stronger storm like I feared before. But still, Taiwan better keep their eyes out just in case. Ryan1000 05:50, July 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's up to 70 knots (80 mph) with gusts to 100 knots (115 mph) and its pressure is 970 mbar. Forecast to peak at 75 knots/955 mbar according to the JMA before it reaches Taiwan. Maybe it won't be the monster I feared! They still need to stay safe though.--  Steve  820  ✉   16:30, July 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * Matmo has really been struggling. It's 379 nm east-southeast (ESE) of Taipei right now. EIR imagery depicts an expanding central deep convection with additional development within feeder bands in the southern quadrant. Based on Dvorak estimates, the JTWC have nudged Matmo's intensity to 80 knots (90 mph, 150 km/h) (1-minute winds) gusting to 100 knots (115 mph, 185 km/h). With improving poleward outflow and very favorable SST's of 30C+, the typhoon definitely has more room to intensify, and while the official JTWC forecast brings it up to 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph), I still think Category 3 intensity is not out of the question just yet before it hits Taiwan. However, Matmo is being dragged rather quickly by the STR, and land interaction will prevent any reintensification. The system is forecast to make a gradual curve over the Yangtze River Valley before potentially reaching South Korea as a dying system. The JMA, on the other hand, have upgraded Matmo's intensity to 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (10-minute winds) with a pressure of 960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg). They predict a slight pressure drop to 955 mbar (hPa; 28.20 inHg) before landfall over Taiwan. I will also note all of Eastern China and Taiwan is in the JTWC forecast cone for Matmo; this area contains over 100 million people in cities like Shanghai, Taipei, Wuhan, Nanjing, and Qingdao. Everyone should be getting prepared for Matmo right now, especially in the mountainous regions of China. Also, as a side note to Steve and anyone reporting JMA or PAGASA winds, could you please indicate that their winds are ten-minute sustained? I know that's the case, but someone else casually reading this forum might not be aware of the difference. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:13, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * Matmo is now 203 nm ESE of Taipei. MSI reveals continued central organization improvement with the beginnings of a cloud-filled eye evident. In fact, the convective bands in the northwestern quadrant have already made landfall over Taiwan. Despite consistent Dvorak estimates, the JTWC have raised Matmo's intensity to 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (1-minute winds) with gusts of 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h). Despite low VWS of five to ten knots, as I said above, the influence of the STR will prevent any more significant intensification before striking Taiwan, and low level inflow effects will prevent the typhoon from regaining its intensity after emerging into the Taiwan. The forecast JTWC landfall intensity in Mainland China should be 70 knots (80 mph) (1-minute winds) gusting to 85 knots (100 mph). Afterwards, a second mid-level trough will help absorb's Matmo's remnants over China. Nevertheless, major effects could still be witnessed across Taiwan and Mainland China. On the JMA side, they have raised Matmo's pressure to 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg) but kept its winds the same. They expect a greater influence of land interaction on the system's weakening, with a landfall intensity of 60 knots (70 mph) (10-minute winds) forecasted for the Mainland China landfall. Hopefully, impacts are not too severe! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:14, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * Be glad this monster is about to slam into Taiwan. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:19, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, I think it has made landfall with winds of 70 knots (80 mph) (10-minute sustained for Andrew's sake). I hope it won't be a horrible storm out there in Taiwan, but if it is, my prayers go out to them to survive the storm. Tomorrow, it should reach China with winds of 50-60 knots.--  Steve  820  ✉   18:09, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Matmo has just slamed into China with winds of 40 knots (10 minute sustained), hopefully it wasn't too bad for everyone in Taiwan and hopefully won't be anything bad in China. It should die out tomorrow.--  Steve  820  ✉   16:59, July 23, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Matmo (2nd time)
Matmo has rapidly weakened due to land interaction with Taiwan and Mainland China. The JTWC has written off the storm, and the JMA currently reports winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute) with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). The storm is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression within a matter of hours and dissipate completely near Qingdao in roughly 24 hours. Overall, Matmo was much less destructive than I feared. However, it did leave its impact behind. A fatality and a missing tourist have been reported on Taiwan. Also, while it may not be completely related to the typhoon, TransAsia Flight 222 crashed near Huxi, Taiwan, killing 47 of its 58 passengers. Some suspect rainfall from Matmo might be responsible for the incident, and that if it is so, Matmo has caused 48 fatalities so far. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:40, July 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Matmo's winds remain the same, but the pressure has risen to 992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg). Located around Nanjing, the storm is forecast to reemerge into the Yellow Sea at its current intensity and degenerate into a remnant low over the Shandong Peninsula. Overall, Matmo was much less destructive than I feared, but it still left its mark with the plane crash in Taiwan. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:18, July 24, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Matmo
Matmo has degenerated into a remnant low over the Yellow Sea per the JMA. Overall damages are at $136 million (2014 USD), and 51 fatalities have been reported, 48 of which were from the TransAsia Flight 222 crash. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:00, July 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Where did you get your stats from? Just last night there was already 64+21(missing) deaths. - HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  03:39, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * HS, my impact statistics above are from Wikipedia. Where is your information coming from? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:10, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Ah, Wikipedia. As a Wikipedian I have to say the WPac storm articles on English Wikipedia are highly inaccurate and usually out of date. The impact section have not been updated since Matmo made landfall. According to news (from Taiwanese, Chinese media), Matmo is quite a devastating event, especially for agriculture. I'd expect the damage totals to be a lot higher as well. Look at the Chinese Wikipedia article (translated), 546M USD is pretty bad for a storm. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:06, July 27, 2014 (UTC)