Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season/Isaac

94L.INVEST
New invest popped up around Cape Verde. 10% on the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 13:59, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

I have bad feelings about this one...in the long run, it might affect Bermuda or the lessers significantly. SHIPS also sees a peak of 110 knots from this by 120 hours. Not good. The "I" names remain cursed. Helene is coming out of ex-TD 7, and Gordon is starting to fade away. Here comes Isaac...He's the last original "I" name on the 1979-now lists, as every other one became retired. This year's Florence is also the last original "F" name on the list, but she'll have to try again in 2018. Ryan1000 17:14, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

I have a feeling we are going to be talking about our first major hurricane of the season soon. I names always seem to be the bad hurricanes. It's also bad for replacement names because there are just few "I" names. 65.34.84.50 18:07, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

Well, 65, "I" names weren't really "cursed" until the 21st century came around. Before 2001, we only had two "I" names become retired, which were Ione in 1955 and Inez in 1966. Then, starting in 2001, we all of a sudden had tons of "I" names retired. We had Iris, Isidore, Isabel and Ivan 4 straight years in a row, and the replacements of Isidore and Ivan, Ike and Igor, were retired themselves after their first uses. Irene became retired last year, and Isaac could be retired this year if this causes enough damage in the long run. If this storm (future Isaac) is retired, not only will we have no original "I" names left, but it will be the third straight year with the season's "I" name retired, and the "I" name will also surpass the "C" name for being the most common letter name to be retired. That may be a bit too much to speculate for now, but even if this thing doesn't reach the eastern seabord of the United States, it will pose a threat to the Lesser Antillies, Bermuda, and in the way long run, possibly Atlantic Canada. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:47, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * GFS models have this a large and most likely powerful hurricane entering the Caribbean on August 23, but some models have it moving north into the open Atlantic. Category three or higher is likely out of this one. Then after the future Issac there is likely going to be a weaker storm form further out. And lastly a possible TS/ Hurricane could form in the GOM in about four or five days and strike the Texas/ Louisiana coastline. This is all going off of what models are showing in the next week so this could be very interesting. Supportstorm (talk) 01:23, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Behind Possible Isaac thr Gfs have Joyce and then possible Kirk in the Gulf and later Leslie leaving Africa.Allanjeffs 01:31, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * It depends. I don't like the looks of this storm. It may head out to sea, but only if it intensifies significantly quickly. I don't think it will do that, so the Caribbean needs to watch out for this storm. Ryan1000 04:34, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * I agree, Ryan. I know it's early, but the initial model forecasts are kinda scary. The majority of the GFS ensemble runs take it up toward South Carolina and the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance rapidly intensify it throughout the forecast period, bringing it to the doorstep of Category 4 by 120 hours. Granted those two models are often overzealous and at these early stages, these forecasts are little more than conjecture, but still we need to keep a close eye on this one. -- SkyFury 09:35, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * What else can I say? "I" names are cursed, and Isaac's already looks like it's asking for retirement in the long run. I have a feeling this could be a nasty storm for the Caribbean/Gulf coast states, or perhaps Bermuda, the upper lessers, or Atlantic Canada. Those scenarios are all too far out to tell for sure. It has a chance to hit the Eastern U.S, but if he does that I would expect a trough to pick him up and take him out to sea, which would be the best-case scenario. However, not all of the models are too generous with this in the next 3-4 days. I have a feeling a Caribbean/GOM scenario is most likely from this. Latest NHC TWO upped 94L to 30%. Also, the latest GFS forecast is starting to scare the crap out of me. They take it roaring into the lesser antillies and smashing Puerto Rico as a very powerful major hurricane. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 11:01, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's now up to 40%, but, in the longer run, the GFS has 94L pushing up the eastern seaboard then producing some incredible rainfall over Canada while a very deep extratropical cyclone. —12R.KIEWII 11:37, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * The Caribbean is what I'm more concerned about in the near future, particularly the area around the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. I find it hard Isaac will miss them. If it remains weak and stalls out as a wave, then it will head farther west than anticipated. 50% now, and could become a depression by tomorrow. Ryan1000 16:17, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gordon wants to beat future-Isaac to Category Three status. If Gordon stays strong enough and does damage at the Azores, Gordon may finally be retired. 65.34.84.50 18:59, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Indeed, his rescent intensity upgrade caught me by surprise. He may avenge his 1994 snub, but it all depends on how much damage he does to the Azores. And back to this storm, it's not looking good either. Virtually none of the models take this out to sea, and the latest NHC forecast takes it up to a 115 mph major hurricane in 5 days. The GFS is also scaring me more and more with every new update. They now see Isaac-to be roaring well into the Caribbean and smashing the southwestern tip of Haiti as a very strong major hurricane. I think we already have our first retiree of the season (or second, if Gordon turns out to be bad enough). Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 21:45, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Code red! 60%. --HurricaneMaker99 23:55, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Here comes Isaac! AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:15, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Intensity guidance is less apocalyptic today, with none of the models taking it above category 1 strength by the end to the period. Still an unnerving storm to be sure, but a saner forecast lol. Ryan, I'm not sure what "NHC forecast" you're referring to since the NHC isn't issuing forecasts on it yet. Looks like it's going to run into Hispaniola before it gets too strong but could still be a very destructive hurricane. That part of the world doesn't need anymore natural disasters. -- SkyFury 04:45, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I meant the SHIPS model, which is the intensity model NHC uses. Well, technically not their "forecast", but I consider it as a precursor of what's expected from it. It may not be as strong as anticipated now, but that could always change. Haiti had their fair share of destruction, especially after the 2010 earthquake. I would hope it remains farther south and ends up in Mexico like Ernie did, but none of the models think the ridge will be that strong. The U.S. gulf and east coasts better keep a close eye on this too. Ryan1000 04:55, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * The gfs run is portraying Doom for Texas.Allanjeffs 16:44, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Future-Isaac still remains a possible threat to the United States. I hope it gets stronger faster, as it would recurve quicker away from land areas. Simlover123 (talk) 17:56, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * 70% now. --HurricaneMaker99 17:59, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it was 80% earlier today, but it weakened. I really don't like what GFS is portraying with this storm. They think Isaac will be be a re-1900 storm for the gulf goast. God forbid that ever happen...And when Isaac reaches western Cuba, GFS sees Joyce coming off of Africa as a strong storm, but heading out to sea. Ryan1000 20:10, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement today and has shifted south, deeper into the Caribbean. Intensity guidance is really confusing. SHIPS and LGEM go nuts with it, while almost everybody else hardly strengthen it at all. The GFS takes a very plausible middle-of-the-road approach. It takes it up south of Haiti past Jamaica and into Cuba, eventually making it what appears to be a low end hurricane. My money's on that forecast right now. -- SkyFury 23:48, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 80%! --HurricaneMaker99 23:52, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

But GFS does see it exploding into a monstrous hurricane when it gets into the GOM, and hitting Texas as possibly a 120 mph or stronger major hurricane near Galveston. It's looking likely to become Isaac by tomorrow morning, but it's been a bit hesitant to intensify significantly. Gordon is passing over the Azores as we speak, and is likely to hit Santa Maria Island and it's 5000 residents later tonight. Ryan1000 02:29, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

This far in advance, however, such a forecast is little more than speculative. There's probably only a 10-15% chance that forecast even remotely verifies. That said, when the GFS talks, I listen. It acurately predicted Irene to pass right over Manhattan seven days in advance, albeit about 35 mph weaker than the GFS had. Still, that was one of the most impressive model performances I've ever seen. When most of the models and the NHC predicted Debby to head for Texas, the GFS predicted it to head east toward Florida, which it did. GFS (along with the Euro) also correctly kept Ernesto to the south, struggling to intensify. So yes, I'm listening. I just really hope that doesn't happen. -- SkyFury 03:52, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Of course it's not very likely, but it's not a good thing to see. There is currently a trough over the southeastern U.S. It's producing heavy rains over Florida as we speak and could recurve Isaac in the future, but if Isaac remains weak, it will remain south of the trough and then turn north to threaten the gulf coast. If the current SHIPS intensity forecast verifies, it might turn north and eventually east when it's near PR or the DR and miss the United States. It'll still do lots of damage if that happens though. Ryan1000 06:41, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Odd to note that HWRF model has six cyclones going at once between the 24 and 26. I doubt that will happen, but it's likely the next week could be very active. Supportstorm (talk) 22:07, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

SHIPS is much less enthusiastic with this now. They only see it becoming a strong C1. I personally think Isaac-to be will eventually head into Hispaniola and Cuba as a minor hurricane, then be picked up by the trough over the southeastern U.S. and head out to sea. Statistically speaking there is only a 16% chance for a storm like 94L to hit the U.S. at this time of year from where it is. Irene of last year was unusual. It formed in the same area 94L is right now and it was expected to run over Hispaniola and die early in it's life but somehow it missed them to the north and hit the eastern seaboard of the U.S. I'm not sure if this storm will do that, but I don't think it will as of now. Ryan1000 01:08, August 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * 90%... anytime, now... --HurricaneMaker99 01:20, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Track guidance is in exceptionally good agreement on a track across the northern Caribbean, staying south of, or just clipping, Hispaniola and the Haitian peninsula before moving into Cuba toward the Straits of Florida. Given such a consensus, I see no reason to forecast it to do anything else. Two big questions loom with respect to the track: how much of Hispaniola does it hit, and what happens after Cuba. Some of the ensemble guidance brings it into the eastern Gulf, others take it up the east coast. I will split the middle with my forecast, bringing it into the Everglades and then up toward the Carolinas, very close to the GFS solution. The intensity guidance remains split. None of the dynamical models do much with it. GFDL is not the least bit impressed and HWRF runs it into Hispaniola as a tropical storm and kills it. Euro keeps it a moderate tropical storm throughout the period. GFS has backed off the intensity a little bit, but still strengthens it to a low end hurricane (Cat 1/2) as it heads toward south Florida at the end of the period. SHIPS and LGEM still like it though not as much as they did yesterday. I still like the GFS solution. The GFS has been money lately so I'm sticking with it. But I agree with a lot of the models in keeping it weak for a while. This thing has struggled with dry air for its entire existence and I expect that to continue until at least Cuba, and that's contingent on it surviving Hispaniola, which at least one major model thinks it will not. -- SkyFury 03:48, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * 100% here comes td 9.Allanjeffs 05:51, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Advisories should be initiated at the 5am advisory time. -- SkyFury 06:34, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Currently i'm not expecting much more than a C1 or C2 with Isaac-to be, but how strong it gets will determine how bad it will be. Just because it may affect a lot of people doesn't mean it will be very bad for all of them. If it only becomes a C1, this might not be any worse than Ernesto of 2006 or so. Widespread, but not exceptionally severe. Ryan1000 07:36, August 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
Now a TD. Expected to become a hurricane. There are already watches up. --AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 09:17, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * NHC shows doom, a near MH in the Caribbean (110mph). Yqt1001 (talk) 13:30, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * ATCF says we have Isaac. Should be official momentarily. --HurricaneMaker99 20:44, August 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac
It's here!--Isaac829E-Mail 20:50, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * ATCF and the new forecast discussion say 1005 mbar, but the advisory says 1006. Huh. Anyway, NHC has revised their forecast downward and eastward, taking it over the central Tiburon Peninsula instead of clipping it to the west. That should keep Isaac from exceeding 85 mph winds, if the new forecast verifies. --HurricaneMaker99 21:05, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not good for Haiti though. My big concern is where will it go after that. I think south Florida is Isaac's target in the long run, but by then at most a 100-105 mph C2. Still, it could do some damage at that intensity. This is an ominous storm, I have very bad feelings about Isaac. I also should point out that the Republican Party's national convention begins next Monday, August 27, in Tampa, Florida. Some of the models are suggesting Isaac could hit Tampa by then, and as a sizeable C2/C3, so it is possible the convention could be postponed/rescheduled. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:26, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Right now, Isaac has 35 kt winds/1006 mb pressure. It is expected to become a weak Category 1 in the coming days. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 05:37, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * This is getting interesting. GFS ensemble guidance has shifted westward, which is unnerving. However, the main GFS has actually shifted a little bit northward and eastward. The elephant in the room remains how much of Hispaniola does Isaac get. Many of the statistical/dynamical guidance plow it straight into the Dominican Republic and across the island. NHC is siding more with the ensemble consensus, which seems reasonable. The scary part about this storm is the level of uncertainty. Only a small deviation in the track one way or the other could have a significant impact on the intensity. If the current forecast track verifies, the current intensity forecast is conservative and I'd say you're probably looking at close to a 100 mph hurricane making landfall in south Florida, give or take 10 mph. Just a small deviation to the north, however, would probably mean a much weaker storm (barely a hurricane at most) striking the Miami area. Just a small deviation to the south, and we could have a potentially dangerous hurricane headed for the Florida panhandle by this time next week. That's an uncomfortably high level of uncertainty, especially when the stakes are this high. -- SkyFury 07:05, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * The intensity of Isaac is what concerns me most. It hasn't turned as far north as I initially anticipated, and that could mean we could have a very dangerous hurricane in the Caribbean in the next few days. If it remains weaker than forecast, but still intensifies, it might pass between Haiti and Jamacia and explode in or near the gulf of Gonaive. That's bad news for Cuba and Haiti, and worse for the folks in Florida. This is getting really nerve-wracking. Ryan1000 19:40, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

18Z models are out..starting to see a shift west, even the GFS is showing a track into the GoM now, not as extreme as the Euro though, but the target is slowly moving from SFL to Gulf Coast. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:33, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 8pm interim advisory says Isaac's moving at 265 degrees, just south of due west... --HurricaneMaker99 23:43, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's not organizing as much as I thought. As I said, it hasn't turned north as much as it was earlier thought it would. That means it might miss most of Hispaniola and rather clip Haiti or Jamacia. That's not good news for the Gulf Coast. This storm may be a bit disorganized now, but that won't last. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 00:04, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Apparently a new circulation is forming farther south and the original is becoming broader. This is form the the hurricane hunters facebook: MT @HRD_AOML_NOAA NOAA42 radar analysis of Isaac shows broad weak circulation at 2km & possible circulation displaced 100 km south at 7km. I wonder how radical of a change this will cause in the future track? Supportstorm (talk) 03:01, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * The 18Z ECMWF was flat out apocalyptic, bringing Isaac to the Mississippi coast as a major hurricane. This is very uncharacteristic of the Euro to be that aggressive and it has steadfastly maintained that westward track. And while I don't think this worst-case scenario will remotely verify, the Euro has been very consistent in this forecast. I think this storm is something of a moment of truth for the Euro. This normally reliable and well respected model has been off for the past couple of years, with several significant and uncharacteristic misses. If it blows this forecast, I think some significant modifications will need to be made to the Euro to improve its performance. The GFS, meanwhile has gradually shifted westward but has maintained intensity at a low end hurricane (which is what NHC has). Supportstorm brings up a good point. The center appears to be reforming further to the south and that makes one wonder whether the track forecast will shift accordingly. It should be noted, however, that while a westward shift would likely mean less interaction with Hispaniola, it could mean more interaction with Cuba. The NHC is being rather conservative with the intensity forecast once Isaac reaches the Gulf, which is probably wise because we have no way of knowing what land interaction will do to the circulation, which is already poorly defined. The strength of a storm's circulation has a lot to do with its ability to recover from land interaction. I've seen a storm emerge into an ideal environment but fail to intensify because the inner core had been heavily disrupted. But the general westward shift in the models is worrisome. -- SkyFury 04:11, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * If it passes south of Haiti though, it could explode in the western Caribbean, because by the time it nears Haiti/Jamacia Isaac will more than likely be a hurricane, and the western Caribbean is more than favorable for this storm to develop. I think it could end up anywhere from the upper gulf coast to even the upper east coast. It all depends on when (or if) that trough catches Isaac. And Eric, if Isaac passes south of Hispaniola, it will evade most of the problems he'll encounter because Hispaniola is very mountainous. Only eastern Cuba is very mountainous and if Isaac survives that (more than likely he will), then Florida will have a big problem on their hands. If he runs into Hispaniola as a weak tropical storm like Emily last year, then he'l probrably die out without causing significant harm. But that scenario is looking less and less likely to happen. He's really starting to scare me.Ryan1000 04:34, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Not sure what it is about the Eastern Caribbean, but it must be the trade winds. Quite a bit of comparisons to Irene on this one. They both entered the Caribbean rather weak and disorganized both expected to pass over Hispaniola and Cuba into South Florida. However right after crossing the Lesser Antilles the center relocated. With Irene it was 75 km north, allowing her to miss Hispaniola to the north and become a category 2 hurricane before the Bahamas. With Isaac though, we are seeing a whole half a degree of latitude cut. A fast, weak disorganized system is heading W at a much lower latitude than originally expected, especially if the claims on a relocation to 14.9N (1 whole degree south) come true. If 75km for Irene meant landfall shifted from Florida to North Carolina, imagine what 150km could mean in a weeks time. Right now though, Isaac is having a problem due to his massive size. Yqt1001 04:34, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Climatologically speaking, the eastern Caribbean isn't supposed to be very favorable for development of storms, but Isaac isn't going to remain disorganized forever. I strongly feel he will re-organize in the coming days (and possibly shrink to a smaller, more concentrated center) when he reaches the central/western Caribbean. He's not organizing very much because his center is moving by so fast. He needs to slow down a bit to 15-17 mph before those thunderstorms can re-organize over the center. Currently Isaac, like Ernesto was in this area, is blazing westward at 21 mph. If he doesn't slow down, he might not become much after all and follow in Ernie's footsteps. I personally don't think that will happen, but we'll see. Ryan1000 04:46, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

I just don't think it'll make it to the western Caribbean, it should head up toward Cuba before it gets there. It simply won't have enough time to strengthen much in that little channel between Haiti and Cuba. We'll see how it fares when it reaches the Gulf. Needless to say, living in Mobile, I'm keeping a close eye on this one. -- SkyFury 05:36, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

I don't think Isaac will do what Irene did. The scenario in which he avoids Hispaniola seems most plausible to me. The Gulf Coast should watch out. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:08, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Well, now it looks more likely to intensify, because it did exactly what it needed to do (as I said above). It slowed down significantly from 21 mph to 15 mph, and therefore it's starting to organize some more. Maybe could be a hurricane by later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 17:10, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Hmmm...Isaac's been rather timid today. It has been in a favorable environment for intensification, but it never got past minimal TS strength all day. I thought it would intensify significantly, given the conditions it is in, but it hasn't. Maybe he won't be a hurricane in the Caribbean after all. However, when he reaches the GOM, it could be a different storm to track. Ryan1000 23:52, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

The track models shifted west all day today. I don't get NHC's center fix. The center looks to be much further south than they're indicating and I'm not convinced it's not gonna miss Hispaniola entirely. A landfall between Biloxi and Panama City seems likely. The intensity all depends on how much land interaction there is and the inner core structure when the storm enters the Gulf. For the record, the oceanic and wind shear conditions where Isaac is are ideal right now, easily capable of supporting at least a Category 4. The reason Isaac has thus far been unable to take advantage is because it has a poorly organized inner core, largely due to a pocket of mid-level dry air that has kept the mid-level center and surface center decoupled. This pocket is expected to mix out soon and once Isaac moves away from the dry continental air spilling off the South American continent, it should begin to organize a little better. It'll be very interesting to see how this plays out over then next few days. Right now, the official NHC track forecast brings the storm right through my neck of the woods, so, while I'm sure that will change, I obviously have a vested interest in this storm. I love this time of year. -- SkyFury 06:06, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

It indeed might miss Hispaniola if it stays weak like it has. I think it might explode in the area Gustav did, or it could do it a little futher east in the area Dennis did. It all depends on how long it stays a TS. If it intensifies sooner, it'll probrably follow what NHC is currently saying, but if Isaac waits a little longer and heads farther west than indicated, central/western Louisiana and Texas could be targets in the long run, instead of the panhandle of Florida to the big easy. Ryan1000 07:00, August 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not much updating on this page as of late. Isaac has intensified to a near hurricane at 60kts and is about to make landfall on haiti. The models have shifted east in the short term meaning less land interaction and a stronger storm likely for SFL. Long term still has Florida Panhandle to Mobile (sorry skyfury :P ) as the main target. Yqt1001 (talk) 04:31, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hey, I know there's a decent chance that we take it on the chin from this thing. I could be right in it. I gotta make a run to the store tomorrow anyway, so I'll be stocking up. I really hope I don't run into a huge crowd of people. I just got gas at a 24 hour station near my apartment (it's after midnight here right now). $3.47! Everybody else is at least $3.59. The next few days are definitely gonna be interesting around here. Waiting on the 00Z Euro run to be posted, which should be about an hour from now. -- SkyFury 05:24, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Isaac has weakened a little to 60 mph/992 mb. However, there is still that chance of Isaac becoming a hurricane. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 14:42, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to peak at cat 2 he could be stronger or weaker.Allanjeffs 15:13, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, NHC currently expects a 100 mph hurricane from Isaac in the GOM, but that isn't very good for the folks on the panhandle. This thing might hit anywhere from Panama City to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Currently Isaac lost himself a bit due to land interaction with Haiti and Cuba and rescently weakened. Isaac is looking rather broad and disorganized at this moment, but NHC still expects him to be a hurricane when he hits the keys late Sunday/early Monday. The folks there -- and on the upper gulf coast, should watch out for Isaac over the next few days. Ryan1000 18:27, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * GFS is still shifting to the west.Isaac829E-Mail 18:59, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * I really hope it isn't that bad here in Tampa. What do you guys think will be the effects here? Should we board up the windows? 65.34.84.50 19:00, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Given the size of the wind field form Isaac it would be a smart idea to board up windows. I would also monitor your local NWS for warnings which is linked here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/. From the looks of it you might be in for a rough ride. Supportstorm (talk) 19:53, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * 65, I don't think Tampa will reccieve the brunt of this storm. Earlier it was possible Isaac could've recurved towards Tampa, but that's not expected now. If anything Tampa should reccieve the outskirts of Isaac, some wind and rain at most, but nothing too severe. The folks near the Panhandle could have a different story from Isaac though. Isaac could be, by then, a category 2 or 3 hurricane bearing down on the coast. Stay tuned though. He's definitely a big threat in the next few days to come. Ryan1000 19:58, August 25, 2012 (UTC)

The models just want to keep pushing this thing farther west with every update. Currently a category three striking New Orleans is not out of the question. Supportstorm (talk) 00:07, August 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Still at 60 mph.Isaac829E-Mail 02:50, August 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * I highly doubt Isaac will directly hit Tampa. Robbie, this WILL NOT be like the Tampa Bay major hurricane, so don't freak out too much. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 03:38, August 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * I am going to say Isaac is going to peak at cat 4 because he is the last veteran I and there is a space that needs to be feel.

cat 3: Isidore and Irene cat 4:Iris Cat 5:Isabel and Ivan the only space is for cat 4 we will see if my theory proves correct hope not.Allanjeffs 05:37, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac (Continued)
So I could get there easily, BTW, still 65 mph.--Isaac829E-Mail 15:09, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

Ike and Igor:Also cat 4's (the replacements of Isidore and Ivan), but Isaac will probrably peak as a C3 or strong C2. Maybe the run from the Euro model earlier wasn't so crazy after all. Currently Isaac is expected to hit Mississippi as at least a 105 mph hurricane. Not too good for the folks over there. A major definitely isn't out of the question, but hopefully it won't Isaac could be a hurricane later today or early tomorrow. He's really getting his act together. Also, he's pretty big. TS winds currently extend 205 miles out (By comparison, Katrina's extended 230 miles out). Once his south side recovers from some dry air ingestion, he'll start to take off. He could be a very large hurricane when he makes landfall; he kind of resembles Ike of 2008 from his positioning and shape when he crossed Cuba, except I think he'll head farther north than he did. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 16:50, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Excusing me but I think it's rather funny how close to reality came my shot into the blue from earlier this year, when I was speculating that at one point might affect the RNC. In deed there wasn't much preventing Isaac having its say in Tampa. --88.103.177.44 18:13, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

I personally didn't expect Isaac to interfere with the Republican National Convention in Tampa (which begins tomorrow). At worst Isaac could have been, by now, moving up the west coast of Florida as a strong TS or weak hurricane, but that wouldn't have caused too much damage in Tampa. Now I think the most likely targets are Alabama, Mississippi, and the big easy. Mississippi is probrably going to be Isaac's most likely target over the next few days, by then which it could be a category 2 or 3 hurricane. Speaking of intensity, Isaac rescently fell to 60 mph. However, he seems to have recovered from land interaction and dry air ingestion. It may become a hurricane soon. Ryan1000 19:38, August 26, 2012 (UTC) <p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">I'm dropping in for a bit here today. A few days ago we might have doubted whether Isaac could actually become a hurricane, now we know it's tracking over north Cuba just like the 1900 Galveston hurricane, with more people threatened but less time over water. This could affect New Orleans, Biloxi, Pensacola. People are evacuating Monday and stores are out of hamburgers. Rainfall over the Mississippi River could be intense. This will not be a direct hit on Tampa, but storm surge is still a major possibility. ECWMF brings it to a cat. 5. This might not be another Katrina, but the geography of the land ensures that even given our little uncertainty anything can happen at this point. NHC forecast puts it directly over Pontchartrain on day 3. [1] 2007Astro'sHurricane (talk) 23:26, August 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * A slow moving cat 1 hurricane 50 miles off the coast would have caused Tampa a surge of about10 to 12 feet. Just imagine what such a surge would have done at this place. 88.103.177.44 17:51, August 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Lot more organized, but back to 60 mph :( Isaac829E-Mail 21:14, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">NHC predicts a landfall over the Louisiana/Mississippi border, but in reality Astro, most of the models have shifted farther west. NHc predicts a landfall much farther east than the others are suggesting. Most of them, including the GFS, now predict a landfall over central/western Louisiana. Some even take it to Texas. That's at least 3 days away, and over the GOM at this point, Isaac could be a monster. We could have another Ike if that happens. Isaac's windfield is pretty big right now, 205 miles out. Ryan1000 03:38, August 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * <span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">I can't believe how far west a lot of these computer models are taking it. They not only have that trough missing Isaac, they build this massive ridge that forces Isaac straight northwest...almost west-northwest. The normally reliable Euro has maintained the eastward track though has shifted west some. This is what's really giving forecasters fits is the two most reliable models have had drastically different solutions. It is worth noting that Debby was in a similar scenario, with a strong blocking high and weak steering currents. Nearly all the models took it west to Texas, however the GFS had an eastward track and that's where the storm went. Now it's the GFS that's on the westward bandwagon and the GFS has done a little better than the Euro of late and has thus far done better with this storm than the Euro has. So as hard as it is for me to believe that the ridge will be that strong, the GFS hasn't given me reason to doubt yet. Not gonna lie, I'm kinda bummed that I won't be getting a hurricane this time around. -- SkyFury 05:41, August 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * <span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px">Isaac is looking better with each new advisory. He should be a hurricane later today at some point. Given the conditions it's in, Isaac may rapidly intensify at some point before landfall, but heading for the big easy isn't so good, especially on the 7th anniversary of the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Given the conditions in the GOM, I see no reason why Isaac can't get to cat 3 intensity or, as some models are predicting, cat 4 or even 5. Ryan1000 08:41, August 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Isaac is looking better organized but NHC says the winds continue to refuse to come up. The storm is dealing with dry air and some southwesterly shear, so I would rule out it being a major hurricane at landfall. NHC has actually revised the intensity forecast down to just a high end Category 1. The storm has looked a lot better of late and the inner core even appears to be getting better defined. So I'm mystified as to why the storm has yet to strengthen. I'm increasingly getting the feeling that this storm will be much ado about nothing. -- SkyFury 08:58, August 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * Even if it only peaks as an 85 mph hurricane or so, given how big Isaac is, the storm surge potential for Isaac is about as high as a category 2 hurricane which, given the angle of where it's coming ashore, could mean serious trouble for New Orleans. It's currently over a cool part of the loop current, but by tonight and Tuesday, it will be over a warmer part with less shear and dry air. I don't think it will get past C1 as of now though, because even if it does intensify tomorrow, Isaac is too big to explode to a C2 or stronger. It's not good for storm surge, but better with regards to intensity. Ryan1000 16:52, August 27, 2012 (UTC)

Now 70 mph/981 mb. The NHC predicts Isaac to become a C2 once more. --AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 22:48, August 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">For some reason, it just hasn't been wanting to be a hurricane. 981 mbars is awfuly low for a TS. Only a few storms I know have had lower pressures yet didn't become hurricanes, one being Delta of 2005, with 980 mbars. It should be one very soon, perhaps later tonight or tomorrow morning. Ryan1000 23:55, August 27, 2012 (UTC)

New advisory, still not a hurricane, but pressure continues to fall, now 979 mbars. It should be one anytime now... Ryan1000 03:34, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

Still at 70 mph, but with a 977 mb pressure (the average pressure of a C2!) AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 09:37, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Still not a hurricane.--Isaac829E-Mail 11:58, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * I am sure it will be one at the next advisory.Allanjeffs 12:36, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * You spoke too soon Allan. Latest advisory says it's STILL not a hurricane, but pressure fell to 976 mbars. Isaac won't be a hurricane at all unless it really gets it's act together right now. It's much less organized than I thought it would be by now. Ryan1000 15:04, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Isaac
Isaac is finally a hurricane! It's about time.....but in a bad way.....poor gulf coast :( STO12 (talk) 17:23, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Very close to landfall.Isaac829E-Mail 19:34, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * This thing may only be a category 1 hurricane, but it rivals the size of Katrina, and hurricane force winds are 60 miles out despite only rescently being upgraded. This massive storm has the potential to produce a storm surge equivalent to a category 2 hurricane, but the biggest threat with Isaac, as far as I'm concerned, is not really his storm surge. Isaac is not that strong; even from a 75 mph category 1 hurricane like him, I would not expect the storm surge to be higher than 8-10 feet. Rainfall and inland flooding is Isaac's biggest threat. Isaac is moving at a mere 8 miles per hour, It's hundreds of miles across, and it's not expected to leave southeastern Louisiana and New Orleans until Thursday. That means some areas could experience significant flash flooding for up to two days and Isaac could be like an Allison for the big easy. Just because it's not that strong doesn't mean he won't be bad. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:42, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * This doesn't sound good for the Midwest. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:02, August 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Isaac has officially make landfall in Louisiana with 80mph winds.Allanjeffs 00:06, August 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * And brought a storm surge of 8.8 feet. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 00:54, August 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Storm surge will be threatening, but my concern is with flooding Isaac will cause in New Orleans and elsewhere in Louisiana. It is a pretty big storm, so that rainfall will linger in the big easy for a day or two as Isaac ever so slowly moves towards the northwest. Ryan1000 01:02, August 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * Levees overtopped...Isaac829E-Mail 11:59, August 29, 2012 (UTC)
 * That's not really good! Does anyone know the surge's current hieght? Surge is 6-10 feet. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 12:09, August 29, 2012 (UTC)

Things are getting worse as time progresses...This storm is now moving at a mere 6 miles per hour. It's almost as if Isaac has parked himself onshore near New Orleans and he's going to soak them with possibly more than 20 inches of rainfall. Flooding is still a huge concern regarding Isaac. Storm surge is 8 to 9 feet in New Orleans and homes are going underwater from Isaac's flooding as we speak. Even though it's making landfall well away from Mississippi and Alabama, they are still getting a 5 to 6 foot surge all the way to Mobile. This hurricane is so big and moving so slow it probrably won't leave Louisiana until Friday morning. What Isaac has done now is just the beginning of his onslaught. Ryan1000 16:22, August 29, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac (2nd time)
Starting to go down.--Isaac829E-Mail 20:01, August 29, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Conditions are getting better, but it's not gone yet. Ryan1000 02:44, August 30, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Currently 50 mph/981 mb. The impacts have certainly yet to diminish. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 06:32, August 30, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Sorry I've been MIA. Isaac has been pounding us down here in the southeast, it has really been incredible. It has been raining here almost nonstop for nearly 48 hours and we're nowhere near the worst of it. We've gotten a few stout rainbands but nothing like what's been going on in Mississippi and Louisiana. I did not expect Isaac to pack this much of a punch. It really blew up right as it was making landfall. We saw it develop a double eyewall out of nowhere on radar. Right at the same time, pressure dropped four millibars in an hour and a half! An hour and a half! One of the intermediate advisories had the pressure at 975 and just an hour and a half later, the hurricane hunters reported a pressure of 971. We're lucky it hit land when it did, because it was getting ready to bomb. As it was, I'm not convinced Isaac didn't reach 75-80 knots before landfall. -- SkyFury 07:03, August 30, 2012 (UTC)

It wasn't really going to bomb anyway; Isaac was too big to do so. But when it comes to tropical cyclones, size does matter, and Isaac is one of the biggest, if not the biggest, hurricane I've ever seen that never exceeeded category 1 strength. It's impacts were quite severe. Levees overrun in the big easy, homes underwater from Isaac's rainfall, widespread storm surge impacts, and all of this on the 7th anniversary of Katrina. I don't know how much damage it has caused yet or how many people it killed in the U.S, but I don't think we'll be seeing low numbers from what I've heard. Ryan1000 14:40, August 30, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Isaac
NHC has handed over forecasting responsibility to the HPC. --HurricaneMaker99 00:29, August 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Not out yet, but it seems the worst of Isaac has passed away. His remains will move into the Midwest, bringing much-needed rain for many places across the region. Ryan1000 03:05, August 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">According to this article, Isaac should become a billion dollar storm. Looks like Isaac's use in the Atlantic is in severe vain. AndrewTalk To MeContribsMail Me 05:02, August 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Early estimates of insured damage is about $1.5 billion, which means, using the usual practice of doubling the insured, total damage cost could exceed $3 billion. Fortunately, the death toll has been surprisingly low, with just six so far in the US. 29 in Haiti could aid retirement but Hanna in 2008, as with the infamous Gordon, has demonstrated how little Haitian deaths are considered. On the other hand, Tomas in 2010 was retired with its primary damage in Haiti and St. Lucia with numbers far less than those of Hanna. But because of the low death toll and borderline damage total, I don't think I'll put Isaac's chances for retirement any higher than 60%. -- SkyFury 09:11, August 31, 2012 (UTC)

Tomas was described as one of St. Lucia's worst hurricanes ever; you shouldn't base retirement predictions off numbers alone, though I personally think strms like Hanna and Gordon still should have been retired. And the 1.5 billion of insured losses are only preliminary estimates. By the time this is all is said and done, total damages from Isaac are liekly to be more around 4-5 billion dollars. I'd place my retirement chances for Isaac at 60% (see below), give or take 10% depending on total damage. One more thing; Eric, Isaac's damage ratio isn't doubled to 3 billion in this case, because it was mostly a flood threat from rainfall as opposed to a storm surge threat, as was the case in Katrina. But I still think 1.5 billion is a conservative number overall. 4-5 billion is likely the total number. It is official, "I" names are cursed. Isaac will probrably be retired, leaving no original "I" names left and the "I" name beats the "C" name as the most common letter name to be retired. Ryan1000 15:03, August 31, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaac
And it's gone.Isaac829E-Mail 15:35, September 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * Technically Isaac has degenerated into a post-tropical cyclone instead of a remnant low, but either way, he's down and out at last. --HurricaneMaker99 16:32, September 1, 2012 (UTC)