Forum:2009 Atlantic hurricane season/June-July

AoI: Azores
. 70.68.12.196 22:22, 1 June 2009 (UTC)


 * Officially on TWO. 70.68.12.196 00:11, 2 June 2009 (UTC)

Invest 92L
Invest for now. 70.68.12.196 16:33, 2 June 2009 (UTC)
 * Wow, this looks a lot like Vince Jr. Seems doubtful it'll get a name, but it also seemed doubtful that Vince would get a name at first, too. What an odd start to the 2009 season that'd be! --Patteroast 21:07, 2 June 2009 (UTC)
 * Regained organization. 70.68.12.196 23:33, 2 June 2009 (UTC)
 * Poofed from NHC and NRL. Some suggests it was subtropical... wow! We had already mind blowing situations early in the season! Storm&#39;s Eye 14:15, 4 June 2009 (UTC)

93L. INVEST
In the Caribbean. Both GFDL and HWRF predict a cat. 2! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:59, 27 June 2009 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Wow, it's boring in here and in Wikipedia. There was already a 94L.invest a couple of days ago. -125.240.29.218 00:37, 14 July 2009 (UTC)

The Post-Apocalyptic Nuclear Winter that is the Worldwide Tropics
I have conducted some of the most extensive research on historical tropical cyclone activity ever by an armchair meteorologist and I have not seen a world this dead since 1977 (the most inactive year worldwide in the Naming Era [since 1950]). The Southern Hemisphere just had one of its least active seasons in many years. The West Pacific is off to a very slow start. It's been a while since WPAC didn't produce a storm until May, as was the case this year. They've had two fewer storms and one fewer major typhoon than they had at this point in the 2008 season. WPAC has had half as many typhoons as they'd had this time last year. As you can see, the Atlantic is also dead. At this point in 2008, Cristobal was four days away. We have yet to have a named storm in 2009. The Eastern Pacific appears to be the only basin that's meeting its quota, so to speak. I have no explanation for this worldwide dead. I don't have any explanation for 1977 either. That year, pretty much every basin saw near record lows in activity. There were just 60 total storms, worldwide, in 1977. The average for the past 30 years is 87. To put this in perspective, 1992 saw 59 hurricanes. From what I'm seeing, I doubt 2009 will threaten that low mark but it could well be one of the lowest since. This global quiet is really quite remarkable. The Atlantic looks like a winter wasteland right now. This is more than an El Nino, this is a famine. -- SkyFury 05:11, 16 July 2009 (UTC)


 * I think an explanation for this is, in 1995 and onward to 2008, the hurricane seasons have been coming above average, but that active hurricane cycle was said to last for 1 to 2 decades, and I think the active hurricane period that begun in 1995 is coming to a close. If I am right, then starting next year in 2010, and continuing for 20 to 30 years, we will be knocked into another inactive hurricane cycle, just like what happened from the mid 1970's to 1994. If that happens, we will finally get a break from all these storms. And about what you were saying on the inactivity, SkyFury, I have no idea why it's coming so quiet now. So far, we have only seen 12 tropical storm-strength storms in the entire northern hemisphere alone. 2 from the NIO, 6 from the WPac, which is usually onto their 11th-12th TS on average at this time of year, 4 from the EPac, which is okay at this time, and none in the Atlantic. I don't know what's causing it, although it is giving us a break from these storms; our last break was 2006, when the East Pacific was at it's most active point since 1992, but the Atlantic was rather quiet. 76.29.112.198 00:12, 25 July 2009 (UTC)


 * I was of the understanding that the active period was expected to last 2-3 decades. Also remember, 1997 and 2006 were near or below "average" (as NHC defines it. IMO the past 30 years are a better sampling than the last 50). My point was that typically if the Atlantic is quiet, the Pacific is active and vice versa. This year, everywhere is quiet. I can't remember a drought this severe this late in the year except a few instances that have come up in my research. With a late-arriving El Nino expected, the Pacific might see a late surge but in most El Nino years, the Atlantic is active early but sees a below average Aug-Oct. In 2006, the ATL had had three storms by July 18 (one found in post-analysis). In 1997, the ATL saw record activity in July with four storms. August will tell the tale and one basin might eventually go on a hot streak but I have never seen a July this dead. -- SkyFury 22:01, 25 July 2009 (UTC)


 * This year is prob a less active version of 1977 or 1979, Sky, but if this inactivity continues, and the 2009 AHS pulls a 1997 August, we might not see a storm until September, but if the East Pacific sees little storms in August and September, then that basin will have little time left, because the Eastern Pacific dies out like wildfire once October comes in, but this does not always happen. In the Atlantic, November isn't always a stranger to major hurricanes, and recently, November has been acting like August in years like '08, '01, and '99. Oh, and by the way, SkyFury, July only sees a storm once every one to two years, making the lack of July activity this year normal, since the last time no storms formed in July was 2004, 5 years ago. The 2005-2008 streak of July storms lasted four years, making that the most # of consecutive years that storms formed in July on record. August and September are yet to come. If this year pulls a 2004 by now, it could still be a bad year, but it may also just pull a 1914 year as well, and have only one or two storms form. This year still could be average, but looking at the atmospheric conditions in the Atlantic/EPac/WPac, I don't see any storms forming in the next week or two. 76.29.112.198 21:58, 27 July 2009 (UTC)


 * The thing that really strikes me is not so much the lack of named storms but the lack of any activity whatsoever. There haven't even been many suspect areas. It's not like a bunch of invests keep getting nipped in the bud by shear, a la 2007. There's almost been nothing to get nipped. And I'm talking about worldwide, not just the Atlantic. Even the Eastern Pacific has gone quiet now after that little hot streak. I have never seen the West Pacific this quiet. That place is essenially a giant cauldron of boiling hot water and not much to run into. They've had two storms this month, two! And one of those was hardly deserving of a name. It's almost August! The lack of storms in the Atlantic at this point is not entirely surprising. A little unexpected but not unprescidented. The Pacific however, especially WPAC, is downright unbelievable. I've seen Januaries more active than this July has been over there. The word 'desolate' comes to mind when I look at the world's oceans right now. The Atlantic looks like winter; almost no precipitation at all. There are a few cyclonic swirls in EPAC that I guess put it a notch or two above dead. The West Pacific has a swath of heavy showers around the ITCZ but nothing cyclonic. And the Indian Ocean looks almost as dead as the Atlantic. I will say, however, that if you were gonna go to the Caribbean, you couldn't have picked a better month. You get winter weather with hurricane season rates. That's a once-in-a-long-damn-time deal right there! -- SkyFury 07:45, 29 July 2009 (UTC)
 * I know, SkyFury. This inactivity makes the Caribbean a perfect place to be by now. 1977 and 1979 were also quiet, but some of the storms in those years were notable. In 1977, A cat 5 hit Mexico from the gulf coast, doing heavy damage, in the AHS. In the East Pac, Hurricane heather caused record rainfall in Arizona, and in the West Pac, Typhoon Babe became the last typhoon named after the island it struck in Japan. 1979 was another quiet year, but had thousands of deaths and billions in damage in the AHS, and the strongest tropical cyclone that ever existed formed in the Pacific. In 2009, we have hardly had any storms form ths year so far, and if they did form, they haven't made themselves useful in any way. The basins are still quiet now, but the NIO doesn't get going again until November. The 3 main basins may keep up this inactivity through the rest of this year hopefully, although it's confusing to see no storms active in all 3 basins, especially at this time of year. 76.29.112.198 23:21, 29 July 2009 (UTC)
 * Central Pacific just got a depression (a gift from EPAC) that may become a storm in the next day or two. I agree with your point wholeheartedly. 2004 didn't start until the last day of July and you see how well that went. Some bad storms have come in inactive years. Andrew is one (name one more notable storm in 1992...ST1 doesn't count). And for a season that saw just seven storms and no major hurricanes, there certainly was a lot of dying going on in 1994. So we'll see. Like I said before, August will tell the tale. -- SkyFury 19:18, 30 July 2009 (UTC)


 * And August does tell the tale... for now. I haven't checked in for some time, and in one weekend, Ana, Bill, and Claudette arise. August is closing up with just 3 named storms in the AHS. None of the 3 are significant storms, IMO. Ana and Claudette were minor with little effects. Bill is still out there, but it is forecast to miss the U.S. to the east and Bermuda to the west, but the large, powerful storm could still deal out huge waves to the east coast of the U.S, and if it slows down, it could give Bermuda a direct hit as a 115 mph category 3 hurricane. Still, I think the AHS will only have 6-8 storms this year. The WPac is very quiet; they are almost equal in activity to the Eastern Pacific, with only 10 named storms in the entire season so far! Typhoon Morakot, however, became Taiwan's worst typhoon in history, doing 3.1 billion in damage to Taiwan (USD), and killing 500, and possibly over 10,000, people. Only the Eastern Pacific is being unaffected by this record low inactivity. They're on to their 9th storm so far, and usually see 16 a year. Sky, this is one very harsh disease outbreak in the tropics this year. 76.29.112.198 03:03, 21 August 2009 (UTC)