Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season

90E.INVEST
40% ATM. Could become something soon (Sorry if I did something wrong). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:54, September 10, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 50%. 65.34.84.50 21:14, September 10, 2012 (UTC)

SHIPS brings 90E to ~47 kts. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:24, September 10, 2012 (UTC)

Wrong with what Andrew? Yeah, I'm not expecting this to become much, not even a hurricane. Ryan1000 14:42, September 11, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Now a TD. Likely to become a weak TS (Kristy) and head out to sea. Ryan1000 16:26, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kristy
Hello Kristy. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:04, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

Again, probrably not going to become much. Ryan1000 22:59, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

Probably another Hector or John from Kristy. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:23, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

I say a peak between 65 to 75 mph she doesn`t seem the type of Hector or John to me.Allanjeffs 23:40, September 12, 2012 (UTC)

Kristy is now down to 40 mph and heading into cooler waters. Simlover123 (talk) 09:07, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Kristy should be gone soon. She wasn't as bad as Hector or John. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:30, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kristy
35 mph/1007 mb. The NHC expects dissipation or degeneration within the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:40, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Kristy
Buh-bye! --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
40%.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  23:59, September 13, 2012 (UTC)

60%! Isaac829 E-Mail  00:42, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

Enviormental conditions are getting better...80%. Possibly Tropical Depression Twelve-E soon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:33, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
Per ATCF.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  13:58, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lane
Fishie. Isaac829 E-Mail  21:03, September 15, 2012 (UTC)

Are you so sure about that, Isaac? Lane currently has windspeeds of 60 mph/1001 mb and it is forecast to become the season's eighth hurricane. (Also, in terms of named storms, we are now more active than last year and 2010.) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Um, I agree that Lane may become stronger than I otherwise thought, but it won't be affecting land, Andrew. This thing is hundreds of miles from Mexico and will likely remain well south of Hawaii as well. Ryan1000 20:29, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

65 mph/997 mb. Lane is on the way to becoming a hurricane. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:40, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Lane
Became one a couple advisories ago. 75 mph, 993 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, September 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lane (2nd time)
Started weakening this morning and now it's falling like a rock. 50 mph/999 mbar, and road jokes aplenty in the latest discussion. --HurricaneMaker99 20:45, September 18, 2012 (UTC)

And there goes Lane... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:57, September 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lane
Yep. Isaac829 E-Mail  11:07, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Lane
Gone. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:40, September 19, 2012 (UTC)

Aoi: West of 91E
20% atm. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:02, September 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * And out. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:42, September 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well that was fairly short. Simlover123 (talk) 09:07, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
30% atm, but may become Miriam, possibly a hurricane. Ryan1000 14:20, September 20, 2012 (UTC)

80% :D Isaac829  E-Mail  20:47, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

This has to be Miriam, it is in such a favorable environment, and it should be a strong hurricane (Hopefully not a John or Kristy). If it does become a major hurricane, it'll be the first time a major hurricane has been named "Miriam" :) STO12 (talk) 21:39, September 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E-wannabe is at 90% now for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:28, September 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * 13-E per ATCF. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:49, September 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E
35 mph/1005 mb confirmed by NHC. Expected to hit 85 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:12, September 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Miriam
Hello Miriam. Isaac829 E-Mail  14:41, September 22, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Isaac829 E-Mail  21:06, September 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Not even close.
 * Bud - 0% - It brought beneficial rain.
 * Carlotta - 0.1% - Meh.
 * Daniel - 0% - Missed all landmass.
 * Emilia - 0% - Doubt it.
 * Fabio - 0% - No damage as a TC.
 * Gilma - 0% - See Aletta.
 * Hector - 0% - No.
 * Ileana - 0% - From the start.
 * John - 0% - No.
 * Kristy - 0% - Per above.
 * Lane - 0% - Per above.

Mine:


 * Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but it had no impact on land.
 * Bud - 1% - Fun storm to follow, but very minimal damage.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Killed three people.
 * Daniel - 0% - Impressive major hurricane, but no.
 * Emilia - 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio - 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's it.
 * Gilma - 0% - See Fabio's section.
 * Hector - 0% - No way.
 * Ileana - 0% - See Fabio and Gilma's sections.
 * John - 0% - See Hector's section.
 * Kristy - 0% - See Hector and John's sections.
 * Lane - 0% - See Fabio, Gilma, and Ileana's sections.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * Mine
 * Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.
 * Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.
 * Carlotta-15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying.
 * Daniel- 0%love you but no
 * Emilia 0% meh nothing just a cat 4 in here
 * Fabio 0 % just rain to LA and nothing more.
 * Gilma0% didn`t affect land.
 * Hector 0% First fail of the season pathetic
 * Ileana:0% good to watch but no
 * John0% and the first epic fail of the season has form and die
 * Kristy0% I give she was resilent over cold water
 * Lane?? we will see


 * Allanjeffs 21:18, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement.
 * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you.
 * Carlotta - 25% - It caused 107 million in damage to Mexico, but that probrably isn't severe enough for retirement.
 * Daniel - 0% - Didn't affect any land.
 * Emilia - 0% - Strongest of the season, but never hit land
 * Fabio - Nothing to really say here.
 * Gilma - 0% - Became a hurricane, but nothing else.
 * Hector - 0% - No effects on land.
 * Ileana - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * John - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Kristy - 0% - Nothing much.
 * Lane - 0% - Not expected to hit land.

CobraStrike:


 * Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm.
 * Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem.
 * Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement.

 CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)

True Golden Blaze: True Golden Blaze 01:35, July 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta- Meh, no.
 * Bud - 1.5% Gave Mexico a little shock, but didn't do much.
 * Carlotta - 11.5% Carlotta's landfall did pull off some deaths, but not enough to get it's name crossed out.
 * Daniel - Will do nothing and die out in the cold Central Pacific waters.
 * Emilia - Some waves but no threat to land. At current intensifying rate, could get a Cat 3 or 4.

Well, it's time for mine I guess. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 19:19, August 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0%
 * Bud - 0%
 * Carlotta - 0%
 * Daniel - 0%
 * Emilia - 0%
 * Fabio - 0%
 * Gilma - 0%

Kiewii, are you sure about Bud and Carlotta? They had minimal damage. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:42, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Of course I'm sure. It is very obvious they will not be retired so there isn't any need for any percentages. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 01:16, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, I just wouldn't say 0% for Bud/Carlotta since they did affect land and did kill people. Not to say I think they will be retired, but I don't think they deserve a 0%. Ryan1000 17:53, August 12, 2012 (UTC)

​Simlover123 (talk) 03:15, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * Aletta: 0% - Absolutely no effects on land masses.
 * Bud: 3% - Some effects on Mexico
 * Carlotta: 5% - Killed two girls and slight damage.
 * Daniel: 0% - Only slight effects on Hawaii.
 * Emilia: 0% - See Daniel's section.
 * Fabio: 0% - Nothing to say.
 * Gilma: 0% - No land masses affected.
 * Hector: 0% - Fail.
 * Ileana: 0% - Didn't affect any land.
 * John: 0% - Even more of a fail than Hector.
 * Kristy: TBA - Probably not.
 * Lane: TBA - Will likely be a fishie, but we will see what happens.

Ok, here's mine! (I'm Liz)
 * Aletta = -1/10. Hawaiian kid that lazes in the ocean.
 * Bud = 2/10. Well... He did brush up the Mexico coast...
 * Carlotta = 3/10. Carly. You did kill people, right? Carlotta: I didn't know that! -cries-
 * Daniel = 0/10. Expelliarmus! (fail.)
 * Emillia = 0/10. Aloha, Emillia! You did nothing, nothing, nothingggggg.
 * Fabio = 0/10. The Fab I Oh did nothing too.
 * Gilma = 0/10. Try again Gilma... you can do better.
 * Hector = 0/10. Hector, I know you were a crossover, but you just lazed.
 * Illeanna = 0.5/10. Just like another Beatriz...
 * john = -99999/10. F-A-I-L, you aint got no alibi... lol
 * Kristy = 0/10. She was john's lil sister!
 * lane = ??? Do I even know huh? Let's take da trip down memory lane
 * 188.223.248.201 19:31, September 3, 2012 (UTC)

Mid-season predictions
Entering the year, after over predicting the last two years, I set my exceptions moderate, with 13-8-4. After an active early July and the GFS showing a major surge in activity a few weeks ago that turned into three fails, I raised it to 18-9-4 (though I have a bias towards the EPAC) and I started getting really excited. I've lowered mine to 14-10-5. Despite there being an El Nino, it has that quiet feel, it has the feel of a dead center and a big quiet phase. With all of the recent 80 and 90% busts, I am starting to get frustrated with the EPAC. Thank goodness for HURDAT going back pre-1995, or I would have not survived the two seasons. At least 2009, 2008, and 2006-00 were decent.

Ill apologize for my rant above, I just needed to get it off my chest. YE Tropical Cyclone  04:25, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I'll go with 14-9-6. Honestly, we should've reached Illena (if those three busts were upgraded). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:53, July 30, 2012 (UTC)

I say 14 to 16 name storms this basin has really come down from producing 18 to 21 name storms to 12to 14 really sad.*signs*Allanjeffs 14:15, July 30, 2012 (UTC)