Forum:2019 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
The 2019 Pacific hurricane season is coming up, and the betting pools are up. I'll make some predictions for this season later, but if any of you guys have pre-season predictions, feel free to post them below. Ryan1000 03:56, November 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * CPHC will be merging their site to the NHC's in May. This should make finding advisories for CPAC storms even easier. Won't change the pace of CPHC TCRs though. Here's some other changes for this season.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:40, March 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * ...and the CPHC site is gone.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:24, May 13, 2019 (UTC)
 * The 2019 Pacific hurricane season has now officially begun!  Sandy 156   :)  00:00, May 15, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
New disturbance appeared just south of Mexico. At 0/20 rn.  Sandy 156   :)  23:31, July 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/30.  Sandy 156   :)  00:22, July 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Correct me if I am wrong, but is this the one that is (as of this writing) present in the 2-day TWO? Because if that is the case, this thing is now at 10/40. The race for Erick may well be on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:41, July 24, 2019 (UTC)

Yes, this is the one currently present on the two-day outlook. At 20/50 now, and conditions are expected to be favorable down the road. The AOI behind it is at 0/50. Ryan1000 00:01, July 26, 2019 (UTC)
 * 50/70. This'll probably get Erick first at this rate. Ryan1000 00:49, July 27, 2019 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Now invested as 99E and up to 60/80.  Sandy 156   :)  03:42, July 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 70/90.  Sandy 156   :)  05:22, July 27, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
Now a TD, 35 mph/1005 mb. Could be a threat to Hawaii down the road. Send Help Please (talk) 15:06, July 27, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick
Special statement from NHC, 06E becomes Erick, 40/1006. Forecasted to be a minimal hurricane before nearing Hawaii.  Sandy 156   :)  21:19, July 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * Hawaii's subtropical ridge may turn Erick towards the WSW later on; also it's a tiny TS with winds only going out 20 miles from (mostly east of) the center. This means Erick might overshoot his intensity forecast but it also makes him more prone to subtle changes in the environment. Ninety-eight (talk) 21:48, July 27, 2019 (UTC)


 * Yay, Erick is here! His twin is coming soon. Beatissima (talk) 02:51, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

Forecast peak is already raised to 100 mph...major hurricane anyone? Ryan1000 09:58, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

would erick or flossie become the biggest? --Bad guy 69 (talk) 15:01, July 28, 2019 (UTC)


 * Looking certain to become the strongest Erick ever, surpassing 2013 when it became a hurricane for the first time. Major hurricane status is looking pretty likely since the NHC always seems to be on the conservative end of EPac intensity forecasts. To be honest though, the system behind it (7-E) is likely to be even more powerful because that one's not even done strengthening by the end of the 5-day forecast. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:12, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * In the latest visible imagery, Erick is looking excellent for a developing TS. Anticyclone facilitating outflow, burgeoning cloud tops over the center, a roughly symmetrical appearance... honestly reminding me of Maria's embryonic stages during the 2017 Atlantic season. I don't expect Erick to even come close to Maria's intensity, but at this point, I'll be surprised if it doesn't become the second major of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:36, July 29, 2019 (UTC)

Erick's expanded a little, but still isn't that big. Even if it becomes the second major of the season after Barbara, it's probably going to pass south of Hawaii down the road at this point, assuming their ridge holds. Flossie-to-be (07-E) might be a different story down the road though, but we'll see. Ryan1000 01:45, July 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Erick is nearing hurricane status, right now it’s 70/995. Expected to be a hurricane anytime soon.  Sandy 156   :)  17:29, July 29, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Erick
Erick has been upgraded to the third hurricane of the season, 75/990. The NHC now forecasts to be a high-end C2.  Sandy 156   :)  03:25, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Erick acquired a pinhole eye this morning and I had a hunch it meant the beginning of RI... looks like I was correct...! EP, 06, 2019073012,, BEST, 0, 132N, 1422W, 100, 966, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 15, 15, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ERICK, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:07, July 30, 2019 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Erick
CPHC official (it crossed 140W around the time it became a hurricane last night). In retrospect, it seems like Erick's 2013 incarnation was just a practice run. Only on its sixth try did the name Erick finally lend itself to a hurricane... and now the seventh incarnation is a major! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:50, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * This storm is exploding. CPHC now calls for Erick to reach a peak of 110 knots (125 mph) before weakening. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 14:52, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Woah, I just woke up from seeing a C1 to a C3. Erick is just amazing right now. C4 is not out of the question for Erick.  Sandy 156   :)  16:43, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * And yet another C4 in the EPAC... 115 kts/952 mbar, forecast peak raised to 125 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:47, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Erick has probably reached its peak by now. It looks like Erick is now undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.  Sandy 156   :)  00:12, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

2013 was certainly a test run for this year lol. I'm glad Erick actually got this strong this year. But as Sandy said, it should be nearing its peak by now (if it hasn't already). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:21, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still a major, down to 120 mph. Forecast to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:02, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Erick (2nd time)
Down to 90 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:27, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick (2nd time)
Finally back to TS status. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:11, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico II
Here comes another one, right behind the other one. 0/30. Beatissima (talk) 05:52, July 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, the EPac is really starting to fire up. We can see Erick or maybe even Flossie during the next week.  Sandy 156   :)  05:55, July 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I expect this system and the one above it to become Erick or Flossie. Conditions seem favorable enough for both to form. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:29, July 23, 2019 (UTC)

i knew flossie would be a fat one tbh Bad guy 69 (talk) 12:11, July 24, 2019 (UTC)


 * 0/40. This may organize faster or probably become stronger than the AOI in front of this as it's now at 0/40 while the other is at 0/30, and it'll probably move more northward. If this becomes Erick before the other one it might become a hurricane again, which became a hurricane for the first time in his previous incarnation in 2013. Ryan1000 13:04, July 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * twin c4s anyone? --Bad guy 69 (talk) 13:10, July 24, 2019 (UTC)

Now we're at code red for both this and the above AOI. 10/70 for this and 50/70 for the other. Ryan1000 00:49, July 27, 2019 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Now invested as 90E, we’re likely going to see Erick and Flossie from those two invests if those keep it up.  Sandy 156   :)  03:42, July 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Increased to 30/80.  Sandy 156   :)  05:22, July 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now up to 50/90.  Sandy 156   :)  17:44, July 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90 now. Flossie is coming. Beatissima (talk) 02:50, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

This might become stronger than Erick if Erick takes up any unfavorable conditions in this storm's path. Hopefully Hawaii's ridge keeps it and Erick south of them in the long run. Ryan1000 09:56, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * 80/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:35, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven-E
it formed haha Bad guy 69 (talk) 15:00, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * i knew flossie was going to be a good one. predict henriette, juliette and priscilla would follow. would she beat babs? --Bad guy 69 (talk) 15:01, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

Finally upgraded by NHC to a TD, and expected to become Flossie later today. All I can is that the typical EPac has arrived. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:09, July 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Yeah, its no longer quiet here. I believe this one has the most potential to get very powerful and I personally predict a C4 from this. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:14, July 28, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Flossie
Flossie is here, forecast to become a hurricane and turn further north than Erick. Nothing too serious now, but might near Hawaii in the long run. Ryan1000 10:40, July 29, 2019 (UTC)
 * Flossie has strengthened to 65/1001 and getting better organized by the minute. It’s expected to become the fourth hurricane of the season tomorrow.  Sandy 156   :)  03:29, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * 60 kts/999 mbar now... come on, Flossie! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:52, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Tropical Tidbits is calling this a hurricane now. Beatissima (talk) 19:11, July 30, 2019 (UTC)

Hurricane Flossie
Here we go. 75 mph, 995 mb. (Beatissima) Beatissima (talk) 00:42, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Remember to sign your posts...also, Dylan, the latest forecast calls for Flossie to maintain hurricane strength late in the forecast period, so Flossie could hit Hawaii as a weak hurricane tropical storm if she overperforms intensity forecasts like Erick did...especially since she'll be farther north than Erick is now. Ryan1000 23:51, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * The NHC is now taking her up to 105 mph but I believe it still has a good chance at major status. It's been a while since a storm last peaked at C3 intensity (since I think all majors last year went on to become C4s), and I'd like to see Flossie do that. However, Hawaii will need to watch this. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:25, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

Missed the previous advisories but apparently Flossie weakened to 75 mph. Forecast to weaken to a TS but regain hurricane status shortly thereafter. Hawaii still not out of the woods though, as Flossie may still be a TS once it reaches the islands. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:00, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Flossie (2nd time)
Wind shear has apparently had a stronger effect on Flossie than it was expected to, and so she's now weakened down to a 70 mph/995 mbar tropical storm. However, if the shear lightens up, Flossie could restrengthen to a (major) hurricane as SST's north of where Erick quickly strengthened are still fairly warm, but conditions will deteriorate again once Flossie nears Hawaii down the road. Interestingly, the last Flossie in 2013 (which took a similar track to this Flossie and also at roughly this same time of year, but didn't become a hurricane) also threatened Hawaii from the east, but it fizzled out as it neared the islands. Ryan1000 21:00, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Weakened a little to 65/996. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:28, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

Flossie is no longer expected to reclaim hurricane intensity; also the latest forecast for her track takes on a sharp northwest turn just before reaching Hawaii, which could spare the islands from her impacts. Ryan1000 11:57, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Fortnite virgins be flossin' --LisaSimpsooon (talk) 15:05, August 3, 2019 (UTC)



AOI: South of Mexico
Another AOI south of Mexico is at 0/20 rn. The EPac has been somewhat active lately.  Sandy 156   :)  00:29, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now at 10/40.  Sandy 156   :)  00:13, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * The EPac is finally firing up for sure now. C'mon, become Gil! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:26, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * 10/50 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:02, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Coming up to 20/50. Beatissima (talk) 02:28, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invested and now 30/40.  Sandy 156   :)  20:13, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:12, August 2, 2019 (UTC)