Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: Area of low pressure in Mid-Atlantic
Another early Cape Verde wave. This one has more of a chance than 93L ever did, though. Shear is low, it has LLC and warm SST's. However, there is dust and only limited convection, so it's quite possible that it wont form. NHC finally used one of it's floaters, so at least they're interested. Here's a current picture: Cainer91 21:50, 2 July 2007 (UTC)
 * I've been watching this one all day. Looks great, but needs convection. It'll likely get a decent blow up of convection tonight or tomorrow. I give it a 70% chance of 96L. 45% chance of TD 3. Just my own opinion. Cyclone1 (22:56 UTC -2/07/2007)
 * The SSD has already called it 96L. The NRL should have it up within a few more hours. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 23:57, 2 July 2007 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
And here it is. -- RattleMan 04:37, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Long overdue. I'm 50/50 it will develop, but it was clearly an invest. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 04:39, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * And SSD is giving it T1.5/1.5 dvorak estimates which is very impressive. -- WmE 12:50, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Looks pretty impressive. This I think is the best chance yet for our 3rd storm. Bob rulz 13:22, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Models are bringing it into the northeastern Caribbean. I don't have a link, I saw it posted on Storm2k. Cyclone1 (15:06 UTC -3/07/2007)

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE... SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE... AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

That says it all folks! Cyclone1 (15:15 UTC -3/07/2007)


 * Quickscat shows a closed 30kt surface low... Isn't that a tropical depression? Cyclone1 (15:43 UTC -3/07/2007)


 * Technically, yes, but I imainge the NHC wants to wait and see if it can maintain it's convection and winds before naming it a Tropical Depression. Cainer91 16:18, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, especially becuase the storm is thousands of miles away from the US. Maybe tonight. Convection has remained constant since this morning. Cyclone1 (17:07 UTC -3/07/2007)


 * I guess I missed the part where it has to be a depression for 36 hours before we call it unless its near land in the NHC description. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 17:29, 3 July 2007 (UTC)

Hah, well, I don't know about 36 hours. It should be a depression tonight. It should be a depression now. The NHC is a mystery. Cyclone1 (17:35 UTC -3/07/2007)
 * Conditions are not that favorable right now. Shear is a bit strong, and there is plenty of dry air especially to the north of the disturbance. So they're probably going to wait if the system can hold together. -- WmE 17:57, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * The dry air is killing it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html -Winter123 18:37, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * Nope, the dry air is hindering it. It's far from being killed. In fact, in the last few frames, moisture is increasing. Cyclone1 (19:02 UTC -3/07/2007)

The sun has now set over the invest. The convection survived the day and should build tonight. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 21:07, 3 July 2007 (UTC)


 * We may have a depression by the 11:00 advisory. Cyclone1 (22:33 UTC -3/07/2007)
 * Eh, it's still rather ragged for the NHC to consider it a TD at the moment. The're going rather conservative with it aslo, mainly because it's hundreds of miles from any land, so right now it doesn't really matter if they classify it. However, if it can keep up this convection, I wouldn't be surprised to see TD sometime tomorrow as it moves into warmer SST's and more favourable shear. Cainer91 23:46, 3 July 2007 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued, danger are up, TD-3 will probably be declared today. Cyclone1 (13:30 UTC -4/07/2007)

The dry air got to it. Maybe once it reaches the Caribbean. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 19:41, 4 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Exactly. Nothing in the short term. It's a naked low. HOWEVER, by Friday, if the low holds together (which looks likely), dry air should lighten up and convection should easily refire near the center. Until then, convection should flare back up tonight in the soutrhern half. This storm is far from dead. Cyclone1 (20:20 UTC -4/07/2007)


 * I still doubt 96L will reach depression status. At the moment, it is being choked by dry air. Sure, it's holding it's own, but over the next two days, shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 knots. The shear coupled with dry air and almost no convection will almost certianly spell the end for this poor little wave. I'm actually rather surprised at how well it's been doing today, with dry air completely surrounding it's northern quadrant. It's a tenacious wave, that's for sure. Cainer91 21:24, 4 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, unless some miracle convection forms over night, it's all over. Oh, well. Bring on 97L.Cyclone1 (23:50 UTC -4/07/2007)


 * Don't count it out... There's still convection and a well defined center. Models agree it's going to head south of haiti where conditions are better. I think this will be our third storm unless crazy shear comes out of nowhere and kills it. -Winter123 03:24, 5 July 2007 (UTC)

It's an open wave. She's a goner. Why?! I thought this was it this time!! *runs away crying into the darkness* Cyclone1 (15:23 UTC -5/07/2007)


 * Heh, I'll join you on that. *sobs* -Winter123 15:38, 5 July 2007 (UTC)


 * XD. Cyclone1 (16:18 UTC -5/07/2007)
 * Is ":::::::But it DOES exist!! *runs away crying like a little girl, arms flailing* -Winter123" what you were linking me to? Heh, I had forgotten that discussion. Glad it did finally get "unnamed". -Winter123 06:11, 6 July 2007 (UTC)

Heh, yeah, I just thought it was pretty funny. Cyclone1 (18:18 UTC -6/07/2007)


 * * comes back from the darkness* Wh-what's this? Is that... is that a convection flare up.... in the middle of the day? In the middle of the circulation? Could it be? Cyclone1 (16:44 UTC -5/07/2007)

Well, I guess we can now definitively consider this storm very dead. It's in the middle of a desert of dry air and sheer is forecast to increase. It's over. Unless convection should flare up near the center and remain that way for a few days, which is extremely unlikely, it's over. Dead. Done. Nothing form 96, bring on the next one. Cyclone1 (00:52 UTC -6/07/2007)
 * Incredibly, this undead little storm still has circulation and convection (see NRL page). Approaching warmer waters at that. Doubtful that it will survive any longer but still impressive. 91.65.0.47 19:18, 6 July 2007 (UTC)
 * I know. I am nothing short of amazed that it's kept its INVEST status so long. Maybe.... MAYBE, it'll flare up in the Caribbean, however, that's a big maybe. Cyclone1 (01:51 UTC -7/07/2007)

Crazy shear, but its in a stream of moisture and the LLC is still very distunguishable! No TD status ever for this I bet, but it's the most interesting INVEST I've ever seen. -Winter123 04:01, 7 July 2007 (UTC)


 * It's......Still......96L.... It won't die. Cyclone1 (23:00 UTC -8/07/2007)
 * It STILL is, according to NRL, even though it moved inland over south america over two days ago. -Winter123 07:38, 9 July 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Inland over Fl Peninsula
I guess this is the next one? TWO mentions a sfc low over FL with convection over the Bahamas. Conditions are not great. It's like 95L all over again. The only difference is, this one is forecast to slowly drift over the Gulf (the low, not the convection). Still, I don't think it has much of a shot unless the low does drift west and fire some convection over the Gulf, or a new center forms under that convection in the Bahamas. Cyclone1 (00:39 UTC -6/07/2007)


 * No, no, no, I'm wrong. It's not going into the Gulf. It's going into the Gulf Stream. The CMC model (42 hours out) deepens this low north of Bermuda to about a 1000-1004mbar. Low. Interesting? Cyclone1 (01:03 UTC -6/07/2007)


 * Probably non-tropical. -Winter123 06:05, 6 July 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, models are less bullish. Maybe something later, but nothing in the short term (24-36 hours out). Cyclone1 (01:53 UTC -7/07/2007)

ACE calculations
Should they be done here or at Wikipedia itself? I know that Andrea's ACE was 0.00 (unless it regenerates as fully tropical), but for future reference or if Andrea becomes an actual TS, where should it be? CrazyC83 00:55, 12 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I don't see why not. We could give updates here on how the ACE changes over time as the storm progresses, whereas Wikipedia probably would just give the final "high" ACE value.  Galaxy001talk 05:31, 12 May 2007 (UTC)

I have created the ACE calculations at Forum:2007_Atlantic_hurricane_season/ACE. CrazyC83 20:49, 12 May 2007 (UTC)

Given that last season we linked to ACE calculations, we should keep them on Wikipedia. – NSLE 02:54, 16 May 2007 (UTC)

Andrea a kickstarter
After a month-long, worldwide storm drought, Andrea appears to have kickstarted the tropics. There's a storm in the Bay of Bengal and a TSFA in the West Pacific. -- SkyFury 14:58, 15 May 2007 (UTC)

- Whoa, really? I haven't been able to keep up with the other seasons aside from the Atlantic. Lilac DownDeep 19:08, 15 May 2007 (UTC)


 * There's now another TSFA in the South Pacific. -- SkyFury 13:36, 16 May 2007 (UTC)


 * They are both named storms now. In addition, there are two very distinct lows in the Atlantic right now, one of them, in the Bahamas, (which is very convection rich), is predicted to become a "gale" (we all know what that means). Here is an image of the low. Interesting? Just throwing that out there. Cyclone1 (23:06 UTC -17/05/2007)
 * That low is 91L now (see above). Gales are extratropical systems. --Coredesat 18:03, 18 May 2007 (UTC)
 * I know, but look at all the gales that were found to be tropical cyclones in post analysis. And there was the 2004 gale, which probably could have. Looks like this one is a lost cause anyway. Cyclone1 (21:07 UTC -18/05/2007)
 * Look as hard as we might, there are going to be some storms that will never be found, by anyone. There are probably more than three storms that have occured in the South Atlantic over the past forty years. Some storms pose as extratropical but really have a warm core and a closed surface circulation. Some of the ones we've found here on Wikipedia using GIBBS are interesting but impossible to prove whether it's a tropical cyclone or not. Part of the fun, I guess. -- SkyFury 21:43, 23 May 2007 (UTC)

And what fun it is! Cyclone1 (17:00 UTC -24/05/2007)

Hey, just wanted to join in! I'm a FL panhandle native, and I followed and made some anonymous posts to the 2005 hurricane season talk page, when I was living in Pensacola. My apartment complex was bulls-eyed by Dennis. In 2006 I moved to southern Louisiana, and do some recovery work on the side. I was planning to join the Wikipedia discussions then, but was put off when we had to get more "serious". I found the death of those talk pages to be greatly annoying, especially considering the extremely high quality of articles that resulted (the 2005 season article is really top-notch). But alas, I understand their rules. I'm REALLY excited y'all started this up...I've already joined in the betting pools, and hope this page stays active. I see some familiar names here from the 2005 season already...hope Eric is here too somewhere. I want to let you know my predictions for strong storms and bad locations (NC/NYC, strong Gulf Storm) aren't "hopes" by any means, but rather fears in a post El Nino year. Anyway, looking forward to an active discussion board, and here's hoping for the best and being prepared for the worst! Gulf Coastie 02:24, 1 June 2007 (UTC)

NRL
What do you mean by NRL? - Patricknoddy Talk 19:25, 2 June 2007 (UTC)

Naval Research Lab here http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Jason Rees 19:34, 2 June 2007 (UTC)

INVEST reports
Is there someplace where there is some text on the INVEST reports? The NRL site doesn't seem to carry text, until it reaches at least tropical depression status. 4.154.5.226 06:01, 3 July 2007 (UTC)