Forum:2008 Atlantic hurricane season

AoI: SE of Cape Verde
Most models predict something out of this, could become a hurricane. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:02, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Already on NHC TWO as medium-risk. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:17, 28 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ah, don't you love this time of year? -- SkyFury 05:14, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * I think this one has a pretty decent chance. That Bermuda High is so strong I'd be worried about this one making it all the way across even if it forms way out here, but a lot can change in the 2 weeks it would take to make it across. Bob rulz 12:49, 29 August 2008 (UTC)

97L. INVEST
Already! It hasn't even made it west of Cape Verde yet, not to mention models actually like this one, and not to mention there are two other well-developed waves chasing this one. The Bermuda high won't be well-developed for long, because Hanna's about to punch a big hole in it, along with the AoI near Nova Scotia and the AoI west of CV will weaken it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:40, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks amazing. TS by this time tomorrow -Winter123 20:45, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Models make it look a lot like Bertha; taking it out into the mid-Atlantic, gradually strengthening. Highest intensity I can see is LGEM and GFDI's 76 knots. Only NOGAPS fails to develop the system as conditions across the basin seem generally favorable (welcome to Cape Verde season everybody). -- SkyFury 04:54, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Looks well-developed, at high-risk on NHC TWO. Could affect Bermuda and/or Nova Scotia, except this time the water's a lot warmer. Maybe my prediction of 9 TS's by end of August (and thus my prediction of 20 TS's this year) could be right after all, or maybe not, who knows. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:50, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Should I reiterate my favorite adage? BEWARE THE FIRST STORM OF SEPTEMBER! -- SkyFury 22:24, 30 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that one this time 'round. Looks like it's going fishing at the moment, and it's got plenty of room to do so. Squarethecircle 03:05, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * At the moment. Right now, it looks like Gustav is going to be the storm of the season, but we thought the same thing about Dean last year. And the curse of the first storm of September has happened too many times in the past (including last year) for me to dismiss it. -- SkyFury 18:52, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * What do you mean by the first storm in September? Do you mean the first storm that forms in September, or do you mean if a storm is active at the beginning of September, but what if there are two storms or more, do you count the one that formed earlier or closer to September, or the stronger one, because Felix formed I think before September started, and what if Gustav becomes this "first storm in September", or do you count storms at depression status or only TS, etc? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:31, 31 August 2008 (UTC)

I think he means the first storm to form in September, because Gustav will exist in September, and also because some of his links are to the first formed storms, but not the first storms period, in September. On another note, the environment doesn't look very conducive right now either. I could definitely see Ike from this, but I doubt we'll have 'cane No. 5. Squarethecircle 23:31, 31 August 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. - A depression later today seems plausible. Well, back to Gustav watching. Isfisk 12:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
Up on NHC. Been a while since our last three-storms moment, no? Current forecasts shows it going up to hurricane strength then barelling toward KatRita Expressway (ie, the southern tip or florida or the straits)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 15:14, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * SHITTHAT'SBAD!! -- SkyFury 16:17, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Wow, this could by Ike at 5pm according to NHC. Expected to travel quickly west and could affect any one of the three vulnerable American cities even though the forecast is high-confidence. ECWMF (dunno if I spelt that right) predicted yesterday it would hit NOLA, and it looks like my US landfall prediction wasn't unfounded, but I predict something a bit different for this storm than NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:36, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Still too early to tell at this point, but I predict, beyond day 5, a cat. 2 landfall on Rum Cay, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Stella Maris, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 2 landfall on southern Exuma Cays, Bahamas, then a cat. 2 landfall near Merkey Town, Bahamas on the 7th, then a cat. 3 landfall between Cutler Ridge and Miami, Florida on the 8th, then a cat. 3 landfall near Niceville, Florida on the 9th, then a cat. 1 landfall near Cape Hatteras on the 12th, then a TS landfall near Asbury Park, New Jersey on the 13th, then a TS landfall near Perth Amboy/Elizabeth, NJ on the 13th, then a TD landfall near Kinston, Ontario on the 15th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:55, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * You forgot the Cat. 5 landfall in the Sea of Tranquility :-p.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Uh, OK, no, that's impossible. BTW is it true that gas in Montreal is $1.39? Anyway, GFDL and HWRF are shifting its track south, which is bad news for Haiti and NOLA. I expect a track shift to the south and an upgrade to TS by the 5pm advisory. This season's REALLY beginning to pick up now. By the way, in Canada, school doesn't start until after the Labour Day weekend. The last thing New Orleans needs is another hurricane. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:06, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * In order: I know it's impossible, but as it's impossible to make predictions worth anything right now, might as well be crazy ; I don't know how much gas cost, I use mass transit, but according to what I find 1.39 is probably around the highest gas gets in the Montreal region, with much lower prices in other parts of town ; The track will probably shift and turn fifty times between now and whenever it makes landfall (if it does) ; and, uh, what does school starting in canada after the labor day weekend have to do with anything?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:40, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ike
The train just keeps rollin' on. -- SkyFury 21:12, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The track is shifting disturbingly close to Miami and NOLA. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:29, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Both GFDL and HWRF explode it to a cat. 4 before it even crosses Cuba! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:13, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * An increase in easterly shear is not going to let that happen but now it's not forecast to hit Cuba and is now pointed toward the Gulf of Mexico as a major hurricane, which is very disconcerting. -- SkyFury 16:35, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Would you care to rephrase that before Ike intensify more? ;-)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:37, 4 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Ike
There we go.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 21:02, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now that it looks like Hanna won't become a major hurricane, Ike is starting to make me a bit nervous... --Patteroast 21:46, 3 September 2008 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Ike
Just updated to a category 3 in a special advisory. If it doesnt make that slightly north turn around midnight saturday than Haiti may have serious problems --Chariot 00:22, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * OMG, this could very easily emerge as a cat. 5 in the Gulf, which is NEVER a good thing. Sky was right, beware the first storm of September. Even since Aug. 31, the ECWMF model (not sure if I spelt that right) predicted Ike to hit NOLA sometime around Sept. 10, and it looks like it might do so. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:45, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I don't know about that, but this just got ugly really fast. Those winds jumped from 70 knots to 100 knots in three hours. That's obscene. I don't know how that easterly shear will affect Ike but NHC has this thing as a Category 4 pointed right at Key Largo. That is not good. This just stopped stopped being fun and now I'm starting to get scared. I'm all for the raw power of nature, but that shear can feel free to take a bite out of this thing, because whether it hits Florida or not, nothing good can come of a Category 4 headed west across the Atlantic. -- SkyFury 02:07, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Up to category 4, 135mph. Strengthening quite a bit faster than i had initialy expected --Chariot 06:18, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's supposed to weaken for a couple of days and then re-strengthem according to the NHC.But what could happen if it crosses Florida and then gets to intensify over the Loop Current?...is there much chance of that?--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:22, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's certainly not beyond the realm of possibility but right now most of the models seem to be suggesting the cyclone will begin recurving later in the forecast period. A lot of the impact that Ike may end up having will depend on when and if it recurves.  The weakening over the next couple of days isn't likely to be significant and Ike will still be a major hurricane as it approaches the Bahamas and the Greater Antilles.  If it makes a hit on Florida and emerges into the Gulf - or worse, sneaks in through the Straits of Florida - well, then things get ugly. Albireo 19:52, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * HWRF (and NHC!) are predicting a cat. 4 or so landfall right on Miami! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:57, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * (Or a Cat. 3 landfall at Ft. Lauderdale if you want to get technical.) The news hasn't gotten any better, despite forecasts of more extensive weakening. NHC is just speculating right now on how much that shear will affect the storm plus there's the ever-present possibility of an eyewall cycle, plus, as NHC points out, the cooler water upwelled by Hanna (the benefits of an active year). -- SkyFury 23:24, 4 September 2008 (UTC)

If you want to go by estimated pressure (I know, I know, but it's still impressive even if it's imprecise), there was a prolonged period of strengthening greater than 6 hPa/h, which I believe counts as "Insane Intensification". The shear seems to be starting to get to it a little, but the structure, albeit very asymmetric, is still supportive of a very intense hurricane. Also, the eye is very round, well-formed, and somewhat warm. The track also looks very nasty. Squarethecircle 23:56, 4 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Now some models are saying Straits of Florida as a predicted path,per NHC 11 PM discussion...so,from there to the Loop Current...could Rita's record as strongest Gulf hurricane fall?(I've thought that the worst case hurricane disaster would be a Rita-at-peak-strength hurricane finishing the 1900 storm's job on Galveston,then heading up the Ship Channel--Shipwreck Channel--into the low-lying areas of Houston).--L.E./12.144.5.2 03:47, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Latest NHC forecast has shifted south and now does indeed point to this scenario. Ouch.  That said, there is still the all-important question of exactly where the storm ends up.  GFDL wants to rake it over Cuba which would help to disrupt the storm (but bad for Cuba).  HWRF wants to turn the hurricane north into the Florida Penninsula.  The CMC model actually recurves the storm before Florida and back out to sea.  Bottom line is this storm could still wind up anywhere, but right now it's looking like Florida and the eastern half of the Gulf are most at risk, rather than Houston/Galveston. Albireo 15:36, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * No. Behave, Ike. No Gulf of Mexico for you. Interesting to note though, after taking it through the Keys a Category 4, NHC weakens it substantially to barely a major hurricane. Though I'm not sure this is any worse than a 125 mph Cat 3 striking South Florida, it certainly isn't any better. I don't know what the best case scenario is and I'm not sure I want to know. -- SkyFury 17:08, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * CMC, GFDL, and UKMET depict a strong possibility of hitting NOLA, with HWRF and NOGAPS more with the Mobile area, and GFS more New York-ish. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:20, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Uh-oh, this is bad...the new track shifted south and it's expected to become a cat. 4 right into the Straits of Florida. This means it could become a cat. 5 in the Gulf and it's heading for the Mississippi-Alabama area. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:07, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * I'm in the NY area so I hope the GFS is wrong.NHC guidance at 5 PM says 115 KT at 72,96,and 120 hours but that's before any potential Loop Current intensification?--Louis E./12.144.5.2 21:13, 5 September 2008 (UTC)

Very significant improvement has occurred over the past few hours with Ike. The eye has redeveloped on microwave and the IR presentation looks very good. Squarethecircle 23:52, 5 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Shit. Cuba, I believe, is our only hope. Learn to love that island in your heart and soul. Start praying to the island gods in Spanish because right now, I think Cuba is the only thing that can stand in Ike's way(apart from a fortuitous eyewall cycle). I'm also not a big fan of having a major hurricane headed toward the north-central Gulf Coast (and me). -- SkyFury 06:08, 6 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Do I have the feeling that the Americans begin to like Cuba? ;-) --213.155.231.26 11:00, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Ike (second time)
Downgraded to a cat. 2, as expected. It's expected to strengthen then weaken to a cat. 1 over Cuba, but then re-strengthen to a cat. 3 or 4 in the Gulf. It could hit the NOLA-Mobile area. This is really bad for Haiti, because it's already under a TS warning and Ike could bring further flooding to land already oversaturated by Fay, Gustav, and Hanna, where a total of more than 200 people were killed altogether. Maybe it'll fail to strengthen as Gustav did, but this still has a very wide error cone though. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:48, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * 200? Isn't Hanna alone already up to 500? Frankly, I'm worried if this go toward NOLA - Gustav might have dulled reflexes. Ike striking so soon after a major not-so-disastrous alarm has major potential to go seventy shades of wrong...--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:57, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Ike (second time)
2 PM advisory says it's back to Category 3.(Memo to Ike...in case they didn't teach you in hurricane school,land is bad for you.Do not make landfall...it makes you dissipate,and the people there think you're a blowhard,all wet,and full of hot air...you will not be welcome.)--L.E./12.144.5.2 18:18, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Sorry Cuba, but a three there is probably better than a four in the Keys. I'm not liking the idea of it restrengthening into a major hurricane in the Gulf. -- SkyFury 19:12, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Looking at the 12z models (and one 00z), by extending and estimating, you can see that CMC predicts a cat. 4 landfall in Grand Isle, Louisiana, GFDL predicts a cat. 3 landfall on the Mississippi-Alabama border, GFS predicts a cat. 4 landfall on Panama City, Florida, HWRF predicts a cat. 4 landfall in Terrabonne Bay, Louisiana, mm5fsu-merge predicts a cat. 3 landfall near Sabine Pass, Texas, NOGAPS makes a cat. 3 landfall on the Birdfoot Delta, and UKMET makes a cat. 3 landfall near Corpus Christi, Texas. This means that 7/7 models restrengthen it to a major hurricane in the Gulf, plus the 11am NHC forecast, which, along with 7/7 models, also predict a major hurricane landfall in the Gulf coast. Plus, 3/7 models strengthen it to a cat. 5 in the Gulf, and half of all models plus the NHC landfall it on Louisiana, which is not good, to say the least. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:46, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Word has it that Ike is now a cat. 4...will wait for the official NHC update. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:34, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This is confirmed by the 5 PM bulletin...now says it has 135 mph winds,will intensify to 125KT in 24 hours before weakening over Cuba and heading into the Gulf and strengthening again...slowing forward...over the Loop Current maybe?--L.E./12.144.5.2 21:29, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I hope the people of New Orleans kept their suitcases packed because the forecast has had it pointed their direction for the past 24 hours. This is unbelievable. It's like '04 and '05; just one after another. -- SkyFury 00:39, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm back online after a Hanna-induced power outage(Hanna has me covered,Ike...you stay away!).I see that the 8PM advisory reports Ike's pressure is back below 28 InHg.So will Katrina/Rita be repeated by Gustav/Ike?The first three pulled their punches,weakening significantly before landfall.--L.E./12.144.5.2 00:52, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Just an update on model extention/estimation: GFS now predicts a cat. 5 landfall near Marsh Island, Louisiana, GFDL a cat. 3 landfall near White Lake, Louisiana, and HWRF between Galveston and Freeport, Texas as a cat. 3. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:59, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

Don't worry Louis, Ike's headed for me down here in Mobile (you're in NYC, right? If so, then the bitch is right on top of you.) God, I hope Cuba's prepared for this, because I think Ike's going to keep on getting stronger until it runs into something. Truth is, we have no idea what Ike will do once it gets into the Gulf. There's a large spread in the models intensity wise and most of the models are not predicting Ike to recurve over the Gulf, at least during the forecast period (Houston, bad news for you). What we do know is that this storm poses a serious threat to the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos and Cuba. As for the Keys, don't get off the edge of your seat, but the news is getting better for you. I doubt good news will be in great supply over the next few days. "Weakens more over Cuba" and "Not going to hit New Orleans" are about the best we can hope for at this point. I bet there'll be plenty of people in churches tomorrow. If you're a religious man, start prayin'. If you're not, I suggest you find something to drink because bad shit's about to start happening. Beware the first storm of September. -- SkyFury 06:05, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * This storm is indeed looking bad. The latest models are putting it even farther south and it may end up crossing Cuba and moving underneath the country in the same hot waters that Gustav intensified in, and there's not predicted to be the same shear and dry air that kept Gustav from restrengthening over the Gulf. My very early and amateur opinion is a landfall somewhere between Corpus Christi and Mississippi at the rate the models have swung left, but pretty much nowhere on the Gulf Coast is safe now, including Mexico and even the Yucatan. Cuba is of course the big x-factor here. This could hit Cuba as a cat 5, and if it crosses the island north-to-south who knows what it could do in the Caribbean. Let me just say, this is a very unusual storm. History is in the making here if only because of the track. This is one of the strongest ridges we've ever seen. Bob rulz 07:03, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * CMC now predicts a cat. 4 landfall on the Florida-Alabama border, GFDL a cat. 3 near White Lake, Louisiana, GFS a cat. 4 landfall on Marsh Island, Louisiana, HWRF a cat. 2 landfall on Pensacola, Florida, mm5fsu-merge a cat. 4 landfall on Padre Island, Texas, NOGAPS a cat. 3 landfall near Dulac, Louisiana, and UKMET a cat. 3 landfall near Galveston, Texas. The latest NHC forecast makes this look like a re-Rita. It already slammed into Turks and Caicos as a cat. 4, and is heading for Great Inagua. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:04, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I'm up the valley from NYC...the Hanna weather has cleared today.So far nobody's predicted Rita-level intensity for Ike (180 mph gusting to 235,with 26.44 inHg central pressure) but who knows what Ike could do arriving fairly intact over the Loop Current for a luxuriating dawdle to intensify.--L.E./12.144.5.2 16:09, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Up the valley...i.e past Yonkers? Yeah, looking at the archived sat. imagery, you guys got hit pretty hard. Any wind damage, street flooding? On Ike, I wasn't expecting to see Texas under the gun but here we are. If Ike spends even a little bit more time over water, we have a big problem and the problem's serious enough as it is. I hate to say it, but I think the Galveston/Houston area is better prepared to take a hit than almost anywhere else in Gulf. The Galveston Seawall can hold back a 15 foot storm surge (and did in 1915, 1932 and 1945). Houston is a big flood risk (as we saw in 2001 with Allison) but it's somewhat inland and not as much at risk of severe winds like the coastal areas are. We got lucky with Gustav. I just wonder how much longer we can keep being lucky. -- SkyFury 17:50, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * An update of models: CMC now predicts a cat. 5 landfall on High Island, Texas, GFDL preidcts a cat. 3 landfall on that same spot, GFS a cat. 4 landfall on Anahuac, in Galveston Bay, Texas, HWRF a cat. 2 on Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and UKMET a cat. 4 landfall on Freeport, Texas. The problem is, the GFS does pretty well a lot of the time, and it didn't predict nearly this much intensity explosion in the Gulf with Gustav (and it didn't happen). It's rather concerning that most models are centred around the Galveston Bay area. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:53, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

Pssh. Two things: The GFS is not designed for intensity predictions, and it's been doing rather poorly this year. I wouldn't trust it if it was the only model I had. And we all know that the CMC was never close to the middle of the class (though everyone's better than the likes of Clippy and the LBAR). The models show generally a TX/LA landfall (at least, the trustworthy ones do), and at about a 3 (though things can sort of, like, change, and fast). Also, the HWRF and the GFDL did very well with Gus in the GoM (once it was over Cuba, that is). Squarethecircle 02:27, 8 September 2008 (UTC)

Hurricane Ike (third time)
If we're going to keep doing new subheads when it changes Categories,we should note it's been a 100 mph Cat 2 for the 8AM,11AM,and 2PM bulletins,and has crossed Cuba once while being expected to cross back to the Gulf.Pressure has risen but restrengthening appears likely.Whether it will have better luck getting its groove back after Cuba than Gustav did remains unknown.(Seriously,Ike,land is bad for you.Wrecks your convection,outflow,structure,windspeed,raises your pressure,fills and distorts your eye...is that really worth dropping in on people who can't stand you?Stay away!)--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:32, 8 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Now it's down to 80mph and the 5PM forecast says it'll only get to 100KT before final landfall in 5 days.--L.E./12.144.5.2 21:05, 8 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Cuba did a number on Ike, the storm looks pretty disheveled but the conditions in the Gulf are pretty darn good. There's a plot of heavy thunderstorms around the Bay of Campeche that's generating 20 kts of shear just south of the forecast track but this looks like a transient feature. It's just a matter of how much Ike can take advantage of the conditions. By the way, today is the 108th anniversary of the Galveston Hurricane, which left 8,000 people dead and most of Galveston in ruins. The similarities in track between Ike and the 1900 storm are kinda creepy. -- SkyFury 23:14, 8 September 2008 (UTC)


 * For a while the NHC bulletin forecast path looked like a bullseye on Galveston Bay,but last I saw it has shifted south...we'll see the update in half an hour.In any case,Ike was identified in Tropical Weather Outlooks in late August,in 1900 Galveston didn't have that much advance warning!--Louis E./le@put.com/12.144.5.2 02:27, 9 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Not looking quite as bad for the Gulf coast as it did, hopefully the second Cuban landfall will disrupt it more. Almost a certain retirement already though I'd've thought after adding to Haiti's misery, ripping the Turks & Caicos to shreds and hitting Cuba with some force. Anyway, 5pm discussion: "THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS." ...so the 80mph figure might be too high, if anything? - Salak 02:31, 9 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Remember that this still follows the OFC from a ways back, so it's a little too early to say that this is less of a threat. Hopefully the HWRF and GFDL really ARE bullish, and the SHIPS really isn't conservative (though time will tell). Also, Eric - I mustn't speak to soon, but I doubt this WON'T be on your little "beware" list next year (if you run out of space, get creative, because Ike's gonna need his place). Maybe the first and the last Hurricane Ike ever - and what an impressive Ike it is. ACE is at 25.8, should be well above Bertha by the time the storm is over, which should bring the season to around 110 ACE points - only one more storm and this season is officially above average (anyone want to bet there won't be another HURRICANE? I didn't think so). Squarethecircle 03:17, 9 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to say that the Gulf Coast should be complacant, just that it might hit as a 3 rather than a 5 or something. It's still quite possible/probable for this to hit the US coast with a fierce punch. - Salak 05:03, 9 September 2008 (UTC)

I really don't see anything that will prevent this storm from becoming a monster. It's huge and it's wasted no time intensifying after it moved off of Cuba. I will boldly guess that this is going to be the worst storm to hit Texas since Hurricane Carla. Bob rulz 06:33, 10 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Latest NHC forecast seems to say a Category 3 landfall,going from "110 KT" (same as when it hit Cuba) to "105 KT...INLAND".When will watches & warnings go up in Texas?--L.E./12.144.5.2 16:43, 10 September 2008 (UTC)


 * 5PM NHC forecast now says 115 KT at 48 hours.Brace yourself,Texas.--L.E./12.144.5.2 20:57, 10 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Actually, Bob, it's been a monster twice, so you'd actually have to change history to stop it from becoming a monster. In the Gulf, then yeah, it will probably reach a significant tertiary peak. I mean, the thing is intensifying and finishing an ERC at the same time - it's not going to end on a positive note. Squarethecircle 21:15, 10 September 2008 (UTC)


 * NHC is currently tracking it for Matagorda Bay.We still don't know if it will be like Carla and Rita,or just another "major hurricane"...can it play the "explosive intensification" card twice?--L.E./12.144.5.2 21:33, 10 September 2008 (UTC)


 * This is a very scary storm. It's so big that the exact point of landfall may not matter too much and on the vis, you can see a pinhole eye trying to develop . The storm is currently ingesting some dry air that will probably prevent it from bombing but other than that, there's really not much standing in Ike's way at this point. If it tracks a little bit farther north than currenty forecast, it might miss the warm eddie in the western Gulf and instead track over a cool eddie. But if the storm accelerates as much as NHC thinks it might, then the cool eddie may not slow it down much. We're about to find out how much this thing likes the Loop Current, then we can better gauge how much Ike will react to changing conditions after the Loop Current. Mandatory evacuations are aleady underway for Brazoria County, Texas (Freeport area) as the storm seems bound for somewhere between Port O'Conner (Carla's neck of the woods) and Matagorda. By the way, Carla struck Texas on September 11, 1961. Ike is forecast to make landfall on September 13, 2008; 47 years and less than two days after Carla (who hit with 145 mph sustained winds, just weakened from Cat 5). -- SkyFury 22:55, 10 September 2008 (UTC)

I am firmly against the dry air conspiracy theory. This storm is completing an ERC, there is no dry air involved. Plus, it's bombing. The winds are beginning to catch up as well. Also, the models have not been trending north recently. (How do I know it's bombing, BTW? Well, a storm that is not bombing will never have 947/85 knots unless it's rapidly weakening. Ike ain't rapidly weakening. Winds will catch up overnight.) Squarethecircle 00:21, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * It's incredible that this storm has such a low pressure and yet such low winds as well. The winds have got to catch up with it overnight. Bob rulz 01:06, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * The storm I associate with the "DREADED PINHOLE EYE" is Wilma,which got nearly down to 26 inHg,while Ike just crossed below 28 again...no change in windspeed this time compared to last bulletin,but broader hurricane force winds within same-radius TS force winds,and dropping pressure tends to forecast accelerating wind.An "explosive" episode could perhaps threaten Rita's Gulf record but current NHC forecast says it barely touches Cat 4.(Ike,Texas isn't like Cuba or the Turks...if you make landfall you'll go to pieces and get absorbed in some nameless extratropical low.Just pull in your wind field nice and tight,head back out the Straits of Florida,and find yourself somewhere in the Atlantic far from shipping lanes,there's a good hurricane.)--L.E./12.144.5.2 01:16, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Most models track it out to sea efore directly affecting S. Ontario, but GFDL brings a cat. 1 right over us! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:23, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Recon found a pressure of 940.1... and windspeeds about 90 MPH. WTF? Ike is 9 millibars lower than when it was at 135 MPH! Wouldn't it be great if the winds never caught up to the pressure? Yeah, landfall at 880 mbar/100 MPH... 24.222.149.228 02:45, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Ike has not yet finished its eye troubles. The outer wall is beginning to crush the inner wall, which might be the reason for the low winds and poor satellite presentation. However, given that the pressure is dropping, Ike's winds should explode when the ERC is completed. Luckily, this means that Ike will have slightly less time to intensify, meaning a slight reduction in probable winds at landfall, which is shown in the 11 PM EST Forecast from the NHC (initial: 85 knots), giving a forecast of approximately 110 knots (or a strong category 3) at landfall. Of course, 110 knots is not far from a category 4, and if the bombing continues, then it could intensify more quickly than the NHC predicts (which, in an RI potential area, is always a possibility, and one that the NHC frequently mentions in these sort of situations). Ike's forecasted track has shown no real change except for slight nudges, as is usually the case in GoM systems this far away from landfall. The NHC's discussion will provide more information than I can supply here, so I would advise a visit to that page for clarification. Squarethecircle 02:54, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

Square, Ike ingested dry air. That is irrefutable. We've seen it on the water vapor imagery for the past 24 hrs. A meteorology professor at my university who has a Ph.D and developed his own hurricane forecasting model that's probably being used by NHC right now says it entrained a little dry air that was preventing it from consolidating. I could be wrong, but I don't think you have a Ph.D in meteorology, so I'm going to side with the guys who've been doing this for longer than you've been alive. So far, apart from the ridiculous pressure gradient, I'm not all that impressed anymore. I was very impressed this afternoon when I saw that nice pinhole eye and banding convection starting to consolidate. Now, the eye has disappeared and the storm's taken on the appearance of your garden variety moderate hurricane. The lack of a well defined eye and 944 mb pressure just leave me scratching my head. I just can't believe that pressure. If that pressure weren't so low, I'd say gradual intensification without a second thought. Except maybe Wilma, I have never seen a wind/pressure difference like this. 944 is normally equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic. Ike is barely a Category 2. I do share the opinion that (and the thought had crossed my mind) if Ike does bomb (which I don't foresee...winds have to follow pressure for it to be called bombing, Square) that pressure could get scary low. The equivalent pressure in the West Pacific, where pressure is much lower thanks to monsoon troughing, for an 85 knot storm is about 955 mb. I just don't understand why neither the winds nor the organization have yet responded to such a low pressure. Remember, Gustav had a pressure that was just three millibars lower than Ike's yet it's winds were 50 mph stronger. I am utterly vexed. This is the only reason why I still think rapid intensification is still a possibility. -- SkyFury 04:57, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Looks from the 2AM ET bulletin (winds still 100 mph,no growth,pressure turned back up) that Ike has...ahem...blown it when it comes to turning super-hurricane.Gustav's season windspeed championship may be secure.--L.E./12.144.5.2 06:03, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Most storms ingest a bit of dry air, but there is a clear double wind maximum (as stated in the 5 AM discussion), and there has been since the storm left Cuba. That is starting to disappear - so if it is a dry air issue, then Ike's issues should persist after the outer wind maximum becomes the main eyewall. I'm not saying it can't be dry air, just that the storm has two eyewalls and I don't exactly buy a dry air theory in this kind of situation (actually, the storm intensified, so I don't buy any theory in this kind of situation). Also, intensification is usually measured by pressure, not wind, since wind needs a while to catch up sometimes. The structure in the past few frames has been improving. I don't think it will bomb again - the winds should catch up, and then some slow intensification could occur before landfall. Squarethecircle 10:58, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

This storm is fucking massive. It's now bigger than Katrina and will likely only grow in size. What this means is that the surge will be much higher than you would expect for a storm of its size! Texas is going to see possibly 12-18 foot storm surge from this despite the winds. It will be higher if it intensifies. I still think that this storm will intensify, but it just doesn't want to consolidate that core. Dry air is a major issue with this storm; dry slots have been popping up like crazy over the last few days. It hasn't built a solid inner core to keep it from affecting the system. However, the core remains intact. I am very puzzled by the pressure/wind relationship as well but eventually I think the winds will catch up; maybe only to cat 3, possibly to cat 4. Either way this storm is going to be very destructive. It's huge and is pushing up a massive storm surge. Hurricane conditions will be felt over a wide swath, tropical storm-force winds even more. Tornadoes will probably be a major problem along the right side. And as always there will be tons of rain. Despite the fact that it has not yet intensified, this storm will be destructive! The size of the storm really counteracts any effects of the lower winds. Bob rulz 17:31, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * UPDATE: Inner eyewall is collapsing. Outer eyewall has finally taken over. Expect intensification soon (though not necessarily rapid). Bob rulz 18:18, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * I'm starting to think the ERC doesn't explain everything here. It's just too weird to be true. However, nothing supports a lack of slow, steady intensification once the outer wall becomes a whole structure again. The storm is very large, and is managing to keep dry air out, but fortunately, this inexplicable phenomenon has kept it at 85 knots, meaning a somewhat less intense storm for the TX coast. Now, it's no time to celebrate, but that's not a bad thing. Recon supports 90 and 85 knots at the five o' clock, which comes out soon, so we'll see. Squarethecircle 20:47, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Course forecast is now back at Galveston Bay,and Galveston is evacuating.The Governor of Texas said that a Cat 5 storm up the Ship Channel,without evacuation,would kill 1.5 million people (very close to what I said was a worst-case hurricane,a Rita-at-peak-strength up the Ship Channel...but Ike will not reach 180 mph winds).The degree of intensification may determine whether the Seawall is sufficient to hold out the surge...the storm is forecast to arrive with Saturday morning's high tide.--L.E./12.144.5.2 21:31, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Square, the ERC doesn't even begin everything. The storm still hasn't recovered from it. Something freaky happened when Ike had it's eyewall cycle. I think the size of the storm and dry air had something to do with it. It kept what essentially amounted to two eyewalls. Texas should consider this a blessing because if Ike kept up the trend it had been on, they could easily be looking at 140 mph winds and a storm surge of nearly 30 ft. -- SkyFury 01:34, 12 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Oh crap. 28-ft surge possible around Baytown and Anahuac. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:44, 12 September 2008 (UTC)

Eric: Yes, that's true. IIRC, cycles are supposed to cycle and stuff, not just stop in the middle and call it a day. The structure still looks like it's being penetrated even though there's not enough shear, dry air, etc. to do it. We're all baffled, but I guess in the best way possible. Unfortunately, Ike is one of the largest storms we've seen in the GoM for a while, so I think it's not going to end quietly.

We can only hope. Squarethecircle 02:27, 12 September 2008 (UTC)

PS: I also prefer STC (Square seems kind of out of place to me, but you can use it if you want to I guess, free country).


 * Here is a quote from the Houston NWS regarding the dangers associated with Ike: PERSONS NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY  HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. Squarethecircle 02:30, 12 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Melodramatic,but are they prepared to deal with anyone surviving despite their claims?(Meanwhile,Advisory 44 finds winds flat and pressure up...has someone paid Ike off to pull a punch?)--L.E./12.144.5.2 03:00, 12 September 2008 (UTC)

I think the problem here was that the outer eyewall took so long to contract that by the time the inner eyewall collapsed, a third eyewall was starting to form, so it's going through essentially two EWRCs in a row. Seems it's going through this second one at a normal pace though. It's somewhat lucky for Texas that it has done this, but it still has plenty of time to strengthen to a cat 3 before landfall (a category 4 is very unlikely now). Bob rulz 07:50, 12 September 2008 (UTC)


 * I haven't been here for a long time; do you all still read Dr. Jeff Masters' blog? He has tons of expert information about Ike. His post yesterday explained Ike's IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy). His post today is also sounding the alarms about this historic storm surge. Also, for those as intruigued as I am about Ike's unusual structure, he notes that Ike really doesn't have a true eyewall at all (since the 10 nm innermost eyewall collapsed)... just wind maxima. &mdash;BazookaJoe 17:36, 12 September 2008 (UTC)

Galveston Impact/Landfall
Figured we might as well have a new section for this, to make navigating and editing a teensy bit easier. Since the surging has already long since started...--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:27, 12 September 2008 (UTC)
 * According to Dr. Master's blog, Ike is more powerful as a cat. 2 than Katrina or Rita ever were. Looks to be heading for the High Island area. I'd hate to be discussing S. Ontario again at a time like this, but looking at the models and other sources, I predict 65kph gusts for where I live, peaking Monday 7am, and 55mm of rain, peaking 1am, which could make this as memorable as Isabel of 2003, which I remember quite well, and also GFDL brings a cat. 2 just north of my area... 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:30, 12 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Ike's sustained winds are now at 110mph and Cat 3 starts at 111mph so we may get yet another Major Hurricane section in.Galveston Impact...they do talk about the storm surge breaching the seawall,and some of the reporters have left for places like Clear Lake and Pasadena rather than stand within sight of those crashing waves.I'm wondering how the Cathedral of St. Mary will do this time,it survived the 1900 storm but apparently needs restoration work now.How much of the island will still be above the sea at high tide overnight?--L.E./12.144.5.2 23:24, 12 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Ike is enormous, intensifying, and may reach 100 knots / 20+ feet before landfall. A more potentially devastating hurricane is almost unimaginable, and good luck to those who try. The fact that this is a category 2 is bad, not good - more people have stayed than normally would have given a storm as bad as Ike. I fear that Ike may become unique for yet another reason, and not such a generally positive one as the others. Squarethecircle 23:51, 12 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Really, REALLY not looking good. Somewhere in the region of 20,000 people still in Galveston, storm surge that may cover the entire island. Looking like this will be nothing short of catastrophic. - Salak 00:56, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Bulletin 47B reports pressure dropped to 28.11 inHg,it's really hugging that Cat 2/3 boundary.--L.E./12.144.5.2 01:01, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

Hey BazookaJoe I do read Jeff Masters' blog. He's very good and I mostly trust his opinion. I haven't been able to read any of his blogs today yet however. That was my next plan. The landfall location and this intensification right up until landfall really is a worst-case scenario. Max surge for Galveston and Harris County. Surprised this isn't a cat 3 yet given its pressure and presentation. I still predict around 120mph for landfall. Bob rulz 01:06, 13 September 2008 (UTC) (damn it, I forgot to sign in again; it's harder to tell than it is on Wikipedia)


 * The worst case scenario is a hurricane this big and as strong as Rita (strongest in Gulf history) making landfaill and driving a tide-synched storm surge up the Ship Channel...at least Ike didn't get that strong.--L.E./12.144.5.2 01:19, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Here is an approximation of a 20-ft storm tide in Galveston. GFDL wants to bring a cat. 1 right over me with 85-mph gusts I estimate. This is not going to be good because I actually have to leave my house Monday morning. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:53, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * The 7m option may be more realistic. Squarethecircle 01:58, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Worst case scenario for Galveston seems possible. The storm looks terrific on sat from here in NOVA. It looks awful from over there in Galveston, TX. Squarethecircle 02:33, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Storm is EXPLODING just hours before landfall. I heard a report that surge isn't getting worse, but (correct me if i'm wrong) high tide is at 3am which is almost EXACTLY when the strongest winds will be going towards the bay, from the SE. We could just see a tidal wave of sorts sweep over entire towns. I'm scared for these people. -Winter123 02:47, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Where do you get the "EXPLODING"?...the wind and pressure measurements stayed the same between 47B and 48.--L.E./12.144.5.2 03:01, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

Sat images are very impressive, and make Ike look like a strong 3, however, Ike will not manage more than 100 knots before landfall without defying the laws of physics (Ike's done that enough so far, don't you think?). Squarethecircle 03:18, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * What are you talking about? Ike has been a fairly normal storm so far. I strongly believe it is a 115mph storm right now but NHC will never admit it, as always. Same with how Fay was at least 70 and they never gave it over 65. -Winter123 03:21, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) Large burst of deep convection on the western eyewall according to satellite. When that energy wraps around... you gotta wonder if the NHC will put out a pink UPDATE if this thing crosses the cat 3 threshold. As for the debate on what the worst case scenario might be, I'll throw out the theory that this is a candidate. If it was a category 5 in the Gulf, maybe 90,000 people might not have stayed hunkered down in the evacuation zones. I found this a thought-provoking read on the public's risk perception. We will see when all is said and done and the death toll is estimated, but let's certainly hope that Hurricane Rita doesn't kill more people tonight than it did in 2005. Also, if our worst fears are realized tonight, this might open up a debate in the meteorological community about the serious limitation of the SSHS when it comes to conveying storm surge intensity to the public. &mdash;BazookaJoe 03:36, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * If a storm were of Ike strength until the day of landfall and abruptly dropped the explosive-intensification bomb and achieved peak-Rita strength before it hit,the worst-case might be more so...--L.E./12.144.5.2 04:57, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Yeah, the WORST case is bombing (ala...what is Dean or Felix last year?) while less than a day from landfall. But short of that, on the broad picture, the combination of this being relatively late in the season, something of a dud with Gustav, and "it's only a C-2"...yeeesh. On the psychological level, this *is* a nightmare scenario.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 05:52, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Weather Channel's Mike Bettes just measured a 101 mph wind gust in Houston! I don't care what a bunch of pilots and gray-hairs say, that is a major hurricane. Whoa!! When you get a storm of this size, it's like a massive bulldozer pushing all that water. The winds matter less with a big storm than they do with a smaller one. A storm like Ike that's half the size of the Gulf of Mexico is going to displace a lot of water...and dump it onto the coast. My biggest fear is for the low-lying areas surrounding Galveston Bay, especially the Bolivar Peninsula. A 15-20 foot storm surge in small towns like Port Bolivar, Crystal Beach, Gilchrist and even High Island would effectively wipe them from the face of the Earth. Surfside Beach windward of Freeport was underwater this morning. I hope this isn't nearly as bad as it looks, because from what I'm seeing, this could be absolutely devestating. This Mike Bettes footage is incredible. He's getting repeated gusts over 100 mph and is finding creative ways to keep broadcasting, it's amazing. God bless him. This is a scary, scary storm. -- SkyFury 06:39, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

The Weather Channel has had some amazing footage but it's 4am here and time for me to go to bed, haha. Some of the damage reports that are coming out of the Galveston to Port Arthur area sound pretty devastating. I'm almost worried what they're going to find when I wake up in the morning. Houston got hit directly by the western and portions of the northern eyewall. This easily could've been worse if the storm would've been slightly west of where it made landfall and if that sudden burst of intensification that occurred right before landfall would have occurred about 12 hours or more earlier. I find it hard to believe that they won't find something in the post-season analysis to put this at cat 3 intensity at landfall, especially since it appeared to keep intensifying as it moved up Galveston Bay! That's the best damn looking cat 2 hurricane I've ever seen. It looked better than Ivan did at landfall and it was a cat 3/4 borderline (not saying I expect it to get that high just that normally with that sat presentation a storm is 125-130mph). Bob rulz 10:19, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, it seems the 1900 analog, at least in terms of surge and landfall location, may be very accurate. Squarethecircle 12:19, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * At least three people have been reported dead in Texas, but this is almost certain to rise. No deaths reported in Galveston thus far, but that's probably because Galveston's impossible to get to! As for Southern Ontario, we're actually seeing the remnants of Lowell today, and into Sunday night is when Ike will arrive, and it could be worse than Isabel for S. Ontario. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 14:40, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ike (second time)
It's been demoted to a 60mph tropical storm as it heads inland.Meanwhile,people are picking up the pieces...how is Galveston?--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:15, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * I've heard quotes saying that there were a large amount of completely demolished buildings, BUT NO CONFIRMATION HAS YET COME FROM GALVESTON ISLAND - all communication in or out of that island is completely gone. I have heard semi-confirmed reports that other islands in the area, and especially northeast of Galveston, received surge greater than 20 feet, and very significant damage. However, the information that is coming out is such that nothing should be taken as truth until at least Sunday, IMO - there's just not enough of it to make heads or tails. Squarethecircle 22:09, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * I've heard more modest damage reports though a lot of areas are still flooded...just 10 buildings in Galveston burned and 7 collapsed in the winds,along with at least one pier washed away.The storm surge in the city was less than 15 feet and the seawall held.The newspaper's website was having some trouble last night.I emailed the cathedral asking if they had damage.--L.E./12.144.5.2 23:28, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

This just came to me and i may be completely wrong but: 25mph motion on the east side of the storm, which will probably have 25 mph winds when it passes just west of lake erie. 50mph equivalent winds. Those winds will move over the entirety of lake erie all at once. Could this cause a significant surge that travels down the river and, consequentially, Niagara Falls? If so I want to see it, if not I'll go anyway because it's something interesting to do on a rainy (and windy) day. But i'd like some opinions? -Winter123 03:35, 14 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Damage in some areas looks post-apocalyptic. Crystal Beach and the Bolivar peninsula were completely obliterated. http://images.chron.com/photos/2008/09/13/13011508/600xPopupGallery.jpg, and http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/weather/2008/09/14/vo.crystal.beach.cnn show complete devastation. In order to wash those houses away, the surge must've been over 15 feet - the damage is incredible. Squarethecircle 14:40, 14 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Bolivar Peninsula had more surge and damage than Galveston because of where the eye hit,I heard.--L.E./12.144.5.2 16:18, 14 September 2008 (UTC)


 * That's what I was most afraid of. Those small towns along the low-lying Bolivar Peninsula got the worst of the winds and the worst of the storm surge. Port Bolivar, Crystal Beach, Gilchrist and even High Island probably got absolutely ravaged. -- SkyFury 22:24, 14 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ike
The NHC has now handed it over to the HPC.(Feeling depressed,Ike?...losing that tropical mojo?...I told you landfall would wreck your structure and kill your winds while making you lots of enemies...but no,you had to hit Texas...and now you've blown it...).--L.E./12.144.5.2 16:15, 14 September 2008 (UTC)
 * - This better as heck be an error or I won't be a happy camper. - Enzo Aquarius 16:52, 14 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It isn't...which is why I'm motinoring the remnants VERY closely. For my location, I'm still expecting 75 km/h gusts and 45 mm of rain, with wind peaking at 1 am and rain peaking at 9 pm. Wait, does the forward motion increase the gusts? (if it does then I'm worried...) 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 18:49, 14 September 2008 (UTC)
 * It's extratropical and is expected to gain baroclinic energy. That's what you're seeing. It's probably not as bad as you think. -- SkyFury 22:19, 14 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Air pressure now 994 hPa where I live. It's just started raining 10 minutes ago, and wind warnings extend across Ohio and New York States. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:28, 14 September 2008 (UTC)
 * However, air pressure might not be an accurate indication of the badness of the weather, because for example in 2006 the remnants of Hurricane John came over Ontario and had the pressure of a cat. 4 and gave us strong gusts like those expected from Ike. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:31, 14 September 2008 (UTC)

Extra-Tropical Depression/Storm Ike
Environment Canada (Canada's Weather service) has issued heavy wind and heavy rain warning for much of southern Quebec due to the approaching Extra-Tropical Ike. Rain of 20 to 40 MM south of the Saint-Lawrence, and 50 to 70 mm north of if, with gusts of 50 KMH (30 MPH) possible for much of the region ; the Richelieu valley area (ie, me), being that it is a natural wind tunnel, has been warned to expect gusts of up to 100 KMH (60 MPH) instead. Should be an...interesting...night. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:40, 15 September 2008 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
NRL's showing a new invest, latest wave coming off Africa, right on the coast. --Patteroast 05:28, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * NHC's got it at medium risk. --Patteroast 06:26, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Here comes...Josephine? I haven't seen an invest this close to the coast so far this year. We could have 10 storms before the peak of the season even arrives! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Although it hasn't formed yet, I predict TS Josephine on the 3rd with a pass near Fogo Island, Cape Verde, then a cat. 3 pass near Bermuda to the east on the 11th, then a cat. 2 landfall near Musquodobit Harbour, Nova Scotia on the 14th, then a TS landfall near Wood Islands, PEI on the 15th, then a TD landfall near Elmira, PEI on the 15th, then a EX-TD landfall near Cape Ray, Newfoundland on the 16th. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:08, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * God, here we go again. This has just been an incredible stretch, starting with Fay. We've had four storms in the past week. That's 2005 sh!t right there. I doubt it'll continue like 2005 did but the past ten days have been ridiculous. I don't know what I'm going to do with regards to school. I was going to leave today, but with the conditions in Mobile being what they are, I don't know if that's a good idea. -- SkyFury 17:39, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Four numbered/named systems on the map at once would be quite the sight, for sure. If going by Wiki's list of when systems were active in 2005, I'm not sure even they ever got above a 3-systems scenario. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:49, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

NHC now has it as highest potential: A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. Seasos's going wild. Isfisk 18:11, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * OMG, HWRF turns it into a re-Vince!! If the season's this crazy, and there are ten storms before it usually peaks, then my 20 storms might actually be un underestimate. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:12, 1 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Chill out, HWRF is on drugs. This is the African wave nowhere near the North Atlantic. Guillaume, you are correct, 2005 never had more than three named storms active at once (Maria, Nate and Ophelia from 06Z Sep 7-12Z Sep 10), which we have now. However, that threesome were actually all hurricanes for a brief time (about three hours between 18Z Sep 8 and 00Z Sep 9). The Atlantic has had four hurricanes active at once twice before (1893 and 1998). This appears to be the Atlantic record for both simultaneous hurricanes and simultaneous TCs. Going worldwide, the Eastern Pacific, believe it or not, holds the record for most tropical cyclones active simultaneously in a single basin. On August 26, 1974, five EPAC storms were active at once: Hurricane Ione, Hurricane Joyce, Tropical Storm Kirsten, Tropical Storm Lorraine and Hurricane Maggie. CPAC Tropical Depression Olive was also active until 06Z, bringing the day's TC total to six! The Western Pacific has had three major hurricanes active at once (1987; Freda, Gerald and Holly) as well as two Category 5's active at once (1997 is the only time I know of, the South Pacific also achieved this in 1998). -- SkyFury 22:24, 1 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Dammit. Gustav got its final advisory before Ten could become Josephine. Oh, well. At least we got simultaneous advisory for Gustav, Hanna, Ike and TD-10 at 5 AM, which is already impressive.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 13:53, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten
NRL's got it listed as 10L.NONAME. Judging by the language the NHC is using ("THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED AT 5 AM AST."), I'd have to assume that we'll get word from NHC shortly. --Patteroast 08:27, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Well that didn't take long. Should be Josephine later today. --Patteroast 08:36, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Josephine
It's official. Albireo 15:13, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Fishie. That's my prediction. I think a weakness in the ridge will eventually develop and allow it to recurve. And from what NHC is saying, Josephine may not even become a hurricane. -- SkyFury 16:37, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Starting to look like it won't even last long enough to recurve... --Patteroast 21:44, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Now expected to maintain itself as a TS. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:00, 4 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Incidentally, there's apparently a bug on the NHC system. Well, either that, or else Josie has experienced the most cataclysmic pressure drop ever witnessed on earth...;-)(It's a bug, obviously)--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 00:22, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * The Bug is now fixed - the central pressure on NHC was reported as 0MB instead of the proper 1002 MB :-D--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 01:25, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Long term NHC track, while forecasting potential dissipation, calls for a steady intensification when Jo reaches about where Ike is now. Squarethecircle 02:01, 5 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Josie's done. That trough is just too much for her; I don't think she can recover. -- SkyFury 06:10, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

Remnants
Big flare-up of convection for the remnants of Josephine. I'd be surprised if this wasn't mentioned in the 2am TWO as it's definitely a threat down the line. There's still lots of water ahead of her. Bob rulz 02:43, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Now 91L on NRL. TWO states that it's only partially the remnants of ol' Josie. Bob rulz 19:31, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * She's not impressing me at the moment. -- SkyFury 18:03, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: East of Virgin Islands
NHC has it at low-risk. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 13:35, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Now an invest. Not much chance in the short-term, but this could be yet another threat down the line. Bob rulz 20:13, 1 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: West of Josephine
CMC developes it as a separate system. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Off Guinea
This system might not look too impressive, but the huge wave behind it is expected to develop by many models. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 20:17, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Yesterday, that wave blew me away but now all that impressive convection has vanished. I also think it's too close to Josephine and is getting a face-full of her shear. -- SkyFury 16:45, 3 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Around Tampico, Mexico
There's this interesting swirl of low pressure on satellite. It looks like it has an eye, but no defined circulation, and it's over land, but heavier convection lies in the Gulf of Mexico. It looks like it's moving west, but it has some potential to perhaps influence Ike. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:18, 7 September 2008 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
North-East of the Dominican Republic, according to Navy/NRL. Not appeared on NHC yet. Not been tracking Josie's remnants, so not sure if they're linked? - Salak 16:00, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * It's possible that these are Josephine's remnants. Will be interesting to see what the NHC says in the 2pm TWO. This looks to have a favorable environment and may be a threat down the road, meaning relatively soon in this case. Bob rulz 17:33, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * TWO says it's partially the remnants of Josephine. Looks like we'll have a TD11/Kyle if this forms. Needs a huge shot of convection though. Bob rulz 19:30, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

Wow, it looks like it just got completely ripped apart. There's nothing there anymore. Bob rulz 06:27, 14 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: Central Atlantic
Debuting in the 8PM TWO is a tropical wave 1400 miles east of the Leewards.--L.E./12.144.5.2 01:23, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * This one has a shot a couple of days down the road but right now it doesn't look very healthy, although convection has improved a little bit overnight. Bob rulz 10:21, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * At this early stage, this disturbance looks reasonably well organized and NHC says conditions may improve in a few days. Definately one to watch. -- SkyFury 18:07, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Now 92L on NRL. Bob rulz 18:36, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

AoI: East of Nicaragua
A convective blob. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 19:01, 14 September 2008 (UTC)

Program for use in tropical cyclone QPF
..but weather weenies might like it too. heheheh  It's a series of scripts that are run in-house through a GUI named cliqr (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/web/cliqr.html), and it runs for all ATCF-entered invests. It shows the rainfall graphics for the systems that most closely match ongoing invests, with greater weight placed on location, size (ROCI), and forward motion than the other parameters. If nothing else, you can look at the list of matches and see where they went. Thegreatdr 23:41, 6 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Ooh, grown-up toys, yay! -- SkyFury 05:13, 7 August 2008 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
So, now with six named storms, it seems linke we can discuss retirements now. Here is my take so far: What are your thoughts? 69.92.37.140 00:57, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur - 10% - damage not severe
 * Bertha - 7% - minimal damage
 * Cristobal - 5% - foregettable, hardly caused any damage
 * Dolly - 60% - caused over $1 billion in damage, and 21 deaths
 * Eduoard - 10% - damage total unknown, but probably not severe
 * Fay - 75% - caused over 100 deaths, severe damage possible. Interestingly, this could be the first time the same letter in the same list is retired twice, as Fay replaced Fran for the 2002 season.
 * I'm having a hard time corroborating the 100+ deaths from Fay. Most of the sources I'm finding are suggesting 14, and that the original count from Haiti was greatly exaggerated.  I'd wait till damage figures are in, but right now I'd put Fay at more like 25% based on what I know right now.  I think I'd also nudge Dolly down to 50%, as the death toll/damage estimates are not exceptionally high and the affected countries (US and Mexico) seem to be somewhat conservative with nominating names for retirement. Albireo 15:59, 20 August 2008 (UTC)
 * By the way, Fay did not replace Fran in the 2002 season, it replaced it in the 1996 season, so this wouldn't be the first time. Here are my estimates:
 * Arthur: 4% - It wasn't that bad, and storms cause mudslides all the time in Central America.
 * Bertha: 3% - Although it broke a few records, damage in Bermuda wasn't severe.
 * Cristobal: 2% - Damage minimal, although this is the only storm so far to follow the Gulf Stream, and it caused some flooding in Nova Scotia, but not much.
 * Dolly: 49% - I'm not going to place any bets on this storm, as damage wasn't really that bad, and most flooding occured inland while it was a depression. However, it is still a devastating storm, which caused over 1 billion in damage, so it has a good chance nevertheless.
 * Edouard: 6% - Although hurricane watches were originally issued, it never became a hurricane and was really not that bad.
 * Fay: 29% 43% - Damages in the US and Cuba were minimal, storms kill dozens in Haiti all the time and not get retired, the bus crash in the Dominican Republic was indirect, but each country does have some chance of retiring it, and it's not done yet. Update: severe flooding in Florida and other places.
 * Gustav: (tenative) 78% 77% - Based on the current forecast, but still too early to tell. Update: over 60 deaths in Haiti, massive evacuation initiated in Louisiana.2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:53, 27 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Hanna: (tenative) 52% 70% - It hasn't done anything yet, but I dunno, I just have a bad feeling about this one... Update: Nearly 140 deaths in Haiti.
 * Ike: (tenative) 80% - I know it hasn't done anything yet, but it could seriously wreck parts of Florida and the Gulf. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:32, 6 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Josephine: (tenative) 21% - It's way too early to tell, and it looks like a dud, but there is a chance it may affect Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:32, 6 September 2008 (UTC)

2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:05, 29 August 2008 (UTC)
 * So, there you have it. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 22:12, 20 August 2008 (UTC)

Just a comment on the question of whether a name with the same letter has been retired from the same list more than once... it's happened multiple times already. Allen > Andrew (x2) > Alex. Alicia > Allison (x3) > Andrea. Frederic > Fabian (x4) > Fred (upcoming). And most strikingly the back-to-back Marilyn > Michelle > Melissa. --Patteroast 07:18, 21 August 2008 (UTC)
 * When was the last time a tropical storm was retired? One and only Allison? Seems Fay has way to go to reach that. However, if the track swifts a bit more to the south Big Easy might get in troubles. --213.155.231.26 21:06, 21 August 2008 (UTC)

You took my title. Jake52 01:27, 23 August 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 5%. 9 deaths total and a fair bit of damage. Neither of these are really substantial criterion for retiring a storm.
 * Bertha: 2%. It was a certainly notable tropical cyclone, but that's all it has to its name is notability. It only caused three deaths, and none of these were in Bermuda.
 * Cristobal: 1%. Honestly. The thing did negligibly little. If Chantal wasn't retired last year (and it wasn't), Cristobal stands no chance at all.
 * Dolly: 45%. This goes off estimated damages being equal to or less than final. If the estimates are greater than actual, it's just a 25%. Fair death toll.
 * Edouard: 1%. Ladies and gentlemen...what on Earth did this thing do?
 * Fay: 10%, possibly higher. Fair death toll. Will wait for damage reports.
 * Gustav: 88%. Made a mess of the Caribbean. High death toll and damages.
 * Hanna: 85%. What on EARTH happened here?!? This thing ALONE killed more people than ALL OF 2007!!! I hate to do this, but it's got lower chances than Gustav for the sadly unavoidable reason that it's Haiti. But still, axe it.
 * Ike: ??
 * Josephine: 0%. Negligible.
 * Arthur: 3%: Nothing out of the ordinary, your bog standard storm hitting a Central America coast.
 * Bertha: 12%: Broke a record or two, scared Bermuda. Not much damage though
 * Cristobal: 2%: What did it do again?
 * Dolly: 34%: Whacked south Texas.
 * Edouard: 10%: Made Houston sit up and take note. Didn't do much in the end though.
 * Fay: 39% 59%: Pounded Florida with severe flooding in places. Damage in Carribean was nothing unusual. New Orleans a little lucky not to get a stronger hit due to it staying over the Florida Panhandle.
 * Gustav: 62%: Gave New Orleans a scare, but caused flooding to the West. Damage in Haiti
 * Hanna: 46%: Damage in Haiti & Bahamas, worsened by...
 * Ike: 100%: Prob retired in the Carribean anyway, looks like it's going to be very bad on US Landfall. Death toll set to be higher than Katrina?
 * Josephine: 0%: It existed. Not much more I can say about it. - Salak 04:01, 26 August 2008 (UTC), UPDATED: 01:01, 13 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Eric's divine and always superior pontification:
 * Arthur: 5% - just for catching NHC with its pants around its ankles...and setting a really cool record too.
 * Bertha: 9% - I've always wanted to visit Bermuda, apparently Bertha felt the same way. She had a jolly old time out there for about a month. What is it about Berthas that make them so hard to kill?
 * Cristobal: 4% - Ooh, a storm brushing by the Outer Banks and doing absolutely nothing! Gold star for originality, Cris.
 * Dolly: 33% - Kicked the shit out of South Padre but they came out of it reasonably well.
 * Ed: 10% - nuisance storm. Pissed on a couple people in North Texas but that's about it.
 * Fay: 34% - I think Fay's raised the sea level of the Gulf of Mexico about 8 feet. Pretty much every county in the state of Florida got at least two inches of rain from this thing.
 * Gustav: 81% - Gustav gave Cuba a shellacking and those floods in Haiti were really bad. Louisiana actually fared the best of the three. With 125 deaths and $10 billion in damage, I'd be stunned if Gustav isn't retired.
 * Hanna: 87% - Man, the sitation in Haiti has turned into an epic catastrophe. This is Haiti's worst hit since Jeanne. Gonaives is a hellhole, simply put. If 535 dead doesn't earn retirement, then the WMO needs to be lined up and shot.
 * Ike: 80% - Wow, what a storm! Very bad floods again again hit the Greater Antilles hard. It has just been a disasterous season for them. The situation in Texas is not much better right now. Ike has essentially crippled one of the largest cities in the country. Millions are without power and likely will be for some time. Galveston's water system is in danger of failing. Damage looks to be in the billions and who knows how many have been killed.
 * Josephine: 2% - At least the Verdes got a nice breeze.
 * Will revise as the season goes along. -- SkyFury 04:47, 25 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I think that Fay should be retired... if any of you lived in Orlando you'd understand the extent of the flooding that occured. Lakes that were 3 feet low a week ago are about 8 feet too high now and 4 landfalls... I cant' wait till the next one! 65.244.189.218 09:08, 25 August 2008 (UTC)


 * Having just looked at photos of Florida after Fay, I've upped my figure for its retirement. I've heard quite little about the impact of it here (UK) though; think I've seen it mentioned in the news briefly twice. - Salak 03:58, 26 August 2008 (UTC)


 * I disagree. I don't think it should be retired and I definately don't think it will be retired. The flooding wasn't severe enough or widespread enough, nor did it cause enough damage. The fact that it wasn't a hurricane doesn't help. Tropical Storm Bret in 1993 killed 124 people in Venezuela in catastrophic floods (the exact same number as Ivan) and wasn't retired. -- SkyFury 16:38, 27 August 2008 (UTC)

My own totally non-scientific predictions thus far: Really what it all boils down to, for me, are the criteria upon which storms get retired. Sure, they may have broken a record or been a nuisance, but really these are not things that storms get retired for. To date, I'd not be surprised if no storms are retired - but with September looming and Gustav looking dangerous, I'm sure that sentiment will change. Albireo 22:42, 2 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 0%
 * Bertha: 0%
 * Cristobal: 0% - Let's face it, all three had pretty negligible impact in terms of damage/fatalities, and these are what get storms retired. No sense in giving them a piddly 1 or 2% chance when it ain't gonna happen.
 * Dolly: 40% - Relatively high damage but nothing eye popping.
 * Edouard: 0% - As above.
 * Fay: 33% - Helluva wet storm, but I'm not willing to up the odds unless some striking damage figures come out.
 * Gustav: 90% - Based on damages to Cuba, large-scale evacuations and disruptions. Could go higher when actual damage estimates come in.
 * Hanna: 90% - Heavy death toll alone puts it up there.
 * Ike: ** - Still active.
 * Josephine: 0% - Total dud.

I'm new but heres mine perdiction so far: I excluded cristobal on the list because it hardly did anything               Looks like this season already has another hurricane to my perdictions this  season will be big. J.T 2:54, 3 September 2008 (UTC)
 * Arthur: 0% - A little tiny storm that hit mexico and was brought to life by a pacific hurricane not happenin
 * Bertha: 1% - sure the long lived july storm but did nothing but died in iceland
 * Dolly: 42% Even though its an estimate its possible come on people
 * Edouard: 5% Face it this storm should have been retired back in 96 and I was 2 years old
 * Fay: 48% - If this name gets retired im runnin up the hills like allison
 * Gustav: 100% - Since we havent had an official cat 4 in a while this will be it for Gustav, estimate 20.0 billions
 * Hanna: 95% - 535 deaths If noel got retired last year this is the next name and if it isn't WMO is on crack
 * Ike: 100% - This thing just raped the shit out of Texas i mean OMG  * Josephine: 0% - Turned around to myself turns outs shes a dud


 * Arthur - 0%
 * Bertha - 0%
 * Cristobal - 1%
 * Dolly - 60% Historically would have been retired. Wait for damage estimates.
 * Edouard - 10% Unlikely.
 * Fay - 20% Fair amount of Caribbean flooding, but not much.
 * Gustav - 100% Really obvious.
 * Hanna - 85% Over 500 dead in Haiti. No one wants another Gordon, and Noel was retired last year for a lot less. Probably gone.
 * Ike - Can't say for certain right now, but the forecasts look nasty. If it follows the forecasts, 90+%
 * Josephine - 0%

---

Let's be realistic here.

Bob rulz
 * Arthur - 0%
 * Bertha - 0%
 * Cristobal - 0%
 * Dolly - 30%
 * Edouard - 0%
 * Fay - 35%
 * Gustav - 95%
 * Hanna - 65%
 * Ike - 100% (deaths in Haiti, damage to Cuba, damage to the U.S.)
 * Josephine - 0%


 * I note that Ike managed to kill 47 or 48 in Haiti despite never getting very near...what's the total for hurricane dead in Haiti so far this year?It seems something in the geography or infrastructure there puts Haitians at particular risk.Do their nominations for retirement usually get honored?--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:25, 8 September 2008 (UTC)


 * The last total I saw put the dead at over 1,000 from a month of storms but that may be an overestimate. I'm guessing it could still easily be at least 600. I'm not sure if Haiti even requests storms for retirement, but look up Gordon in 1994. Killed over 1,100 in Haiti yet wasn't retired. A travesty in my opinion. Bob rulz 01:03, 11 September 2008 (UTC)

My Predictions:


 * Arthur - 0%
 * Bertha - 0%
 * Cristobal - 0%
 * Dolly - 40%: If the 1,200,000,000 damage prediction is correct, I could see Dolly being retired.
 * Edouard - 0%
 * Fay - 25%: Decent amount of flooding in Florida; made landfall in Florida 4 times. We'll see.
 * Gustav - 100%: I cannot see any reason why Gustav would not be retired.
 * Hanna - 90%: I know, I know, Gordon wasn't retired, but with all the public backlash the WMO experienced from that, I can't see them making that mistake again.
 * Ike - 100%: Heavily damaged nearly all of Northeastern Texas, especially Galveston. Obvious candidate for retirement.
 * Josephine - 0%

There you go. undefinedundefined 19:39, 13 September 2008 (UTC)

Cleaning up the clutter
I've just archived the August discussion (excluding active storms) and Fay to their own archive pages; apologies if I wasn't supposed to do that. The page was just getting way too cluttered for me. Probably want to give Gustav its archive page soon, too. Thoughts?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 20:10, 2 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Agreed. I just archived some old July discussion last week. I would keep Gustav up for at least another week as aftermath reports come in. HPC is still issuing advisories on inland flood threats from the remnants of Gustav. -- SkyFury 16:50, 3 September 2008 (UTC)


 * How about partially archiving and leaving the last two or three parts of it? Do we really still need the sub-section about Gustav-as-an-invest? --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 18:01, 3 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Well just for the sake of keeping everything together and we don't have to keep it up much longer. I'd say by the time Ike is approaching landfall on the Gulf Coast (and the associated storm surge of posts come in) we should move Gus to a new home. -- SkyFury 06:10, 7 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Isn't it Hanna's turn now?--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:41, 11 September 2008 (UTC)


 * Yup. Think the remnants passed us here in the UK the other night. - Salak 11:34, 14 September 2008 (UTC)

What are the Storm Floaters?
I see that there are currently 3 GOES satellites active and explains "The GOES satellite has one visible-light imaging system that is kept in reserve for tropical storm situations. That camera is kept zoomed and focused on the current tropical system of interest" So how are so many floaters listed on  and ? 84.160.225.173 14:23, 7 September 2008 (UTC)
 * I assume the camera can refocus to a given coordinate within just a few minutes or even seconds. It's not that each image is taken exactly simultaneously, just within the same 15 minute period. Those images can be put through a myriad of spectrums which you see in the variety of IRs (which have been fantastically expanded). I don't know this for certain, it's just what I assume is going on. -- SkyFury 17:05, 7 September 2008 (UTC)