Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:close to Mexico
20% on NHC. I hope it develops. YE Tropical Cyclone

91E.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. Yqt1001 19:09, June 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * Nice to have some more activity, but the La Nina conditions aren't exactly helping us. I wouldn't be so surprised if this area of storms doesn't develop, and 94L hasn't exactly been getting it's act together either. However, the EPac season is under way, and we should be getting our first storm climatologicaly by now. The last week of May and first week of June is when the EPac starts up. The shear must settle down for us to get some storms developing. I mentioned some facts behind this year's tornado season in 94L's section(not to get off-topic), but if we had such an incredible tornado season, will the hurricane season reflect that? We'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 23:40, June 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...And the invests have died down. It appears we are on to a silent start in both basins. As of now, the tropics are sleeping, and they will wake up in the future at some point. I guess this is it for now. Here is the Atlantic water vapor imagery map from UNISYS, and here is the Pacific one. They have apparently died away, and I wouldn't be surprised if they actually do so soon.
 * Too bad, I really wouldn't mind seeing named storms around now. Oh well, I can wait. :) And yeah, I think tornado season reflects the hurricane season. The last tornado here was in 2005, this year there has already been a tornado warning. Granted it was only about 24 hours ago (thought there hasn't been one since 2008). Yqt1001 04:06, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 40%. YE Tropical Cyclone  14:05, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It still hasn't been getting it's act together so much, and the conditions ahead of it aren't very favorable 1-2 days out. It could become a tropical depression or a tropical storm by chance, but after that, it'll just fall apart due to the dry air out to sea. Ryan1000 16:16, June 5, 2011 (UTC)

First red circle of the year! 60% chance of development in the next 48 hours. Yqt1001 18:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * I didn't expect it to jump that much, but i'm not expecting so much out of "Adrian". As I said, the conditions are only favorable 1-2 days out until it runs into some dry air and slowly fades away. But, well the Western Hemisphere hasn't even begun yet, and although the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific only account for about 1/3 of worldwide development, they account for a lot of destruction and deaths(particularly the Atlantic), and the activity in the Atlantic hasn't gotten any better since 1995. The EPac and WPac will likely be below average, the Atlantic near to slightly above average, and the SHem also below average. The 1995-now AMO hasn't exactly helped us have more storms on a worldwide standard, and the Atlantic just can't make up for what we haven't had worldwide, per last year's season. Ryan1000 20:45, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * We might not be seeing Adrian from this storm, but more than likely TD one. It's at 90% chance of development! How often do you think the world can keeps its below average streak of activity up for? I was really surprised at how the SWIO season was, pretty much..nothing this year. Yqt1001 23:39, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * Um, the storm aint forecasted to go out to sea. Dry air dpes not look too bad, wite a few mdoels show a hurricane out of this. I hope it beocmes a TD soon. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:46, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * First, the Pacific and Indian oceans accound for nearly 90% of all of the activity worldwide, and the Atlantic alone isn't enough; not to say there will be nothing, but the Atlantic has been accounting for more activity than usual rescently. I would probrably expect a near-normal to above normal EPac and/or WPac season in this year...


 * Second, the SWIO season normally does well during La Nina years, but since this year's SWIO season was record-dead, I fell the Atlantic hurricane season will reflect that. The 2000 Southern Hemisphere season was in a La Nina during that year, and there was a lot of activity in the southern hemisphere in that year. The SWIO had 2 very destructive, long-lived category 4 storms in that season, including Eline, which killed up to 1000 people in Mozambique and Madagascar, and later Hudah, which killed hundreds as it rampaged through both countries again. Had subtropical storms been named by then, the AHS in 2000 would have gotten up to Oscar, up till then only the second "O" name in the Atlantic, after 1995's Opal. I never thought this year's SWIO season would be so quiet following such a strong La Nina in the former Atlantic hurricane season, but I can't help that... Actually, seeing the activity in the SWIO this year, I would expect an El Nino to form at some point and kick the EPac and WPac into above-average seasons, and hinder the Atlantic somewhat. In no ways will I see a repeat of 2010, when all of the basins excep the Atlantic were dead, but thus far, things haven't exactly reflected that. It's only June, however, and only time will tell. La Nina events normally strengthen the Atlantic, SWIO, and Australian regions, and hinder the EPac, WPac, and SPac. El Nino strengthens the EPac, WPac, and SPac, and hinders the ATL, SWIO, and Australian regions. There can be exeptions to this rule, but that's usually what happens. This year had a record-dead SWIO season, a near-normal AUS region, although many of the storms were short-lived and weak, and the South Pacific was also near normal, but with Wilma, Yasi, and Atu, 3 cat. 4's. The season has just begun here though; I guess I can't really make assumptions based on what I've seen thus far. Ryan1000 01:34, June 6, 2011 (UTC)

What in the world happened to 91E. It did it last nigh, too. This is so like Georgette. YE Tropical Cyclone  02:35, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 91E, just develop already, the water are warm, there is nothing to be afraid off. Grow, son, grow. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Up to 'near 100%' now! --Patteroast 18:10, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * AKA... Here's TD one-E.
 * Um, not yet. It is so close though. The only a small increase in organization crap. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:06, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant really soon, perhaps later today. I'm not so sure though; it has been struggling a little, just like 94L in the Caribbean. Ryan1000 11:02, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's still at "near 100%!" Just a little bit more organisation and it will be TD 1E. HurricaneFiona 12:32, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm expecting a TD at 8. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * 91E is sure taking it's time developing, just like 94L. The thing about 91E is it is pretty weak, because gets nearly destroyed every DMIN stage of the diurnal pressure variation cycle. Yqt1001 14:15, June 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
In a special TWO update the NHC has declared 91E the first tropical cyclone in the EPac season! NHC forecasts hurricane Adrian in a few days from this. Welcome to the Eastern Pacific hurrican season 2011! Yqt1001 14:40, June 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yep, there we go! The western hemisphere season has oficially begun(discounting Arani)! I would expect it to head northwest, possibly parallel Mexico and head out to sea. Adrian is coming! Ryan1000 18:05, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Let the game begin. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

Tropical Storm Adrian
First named storm of the season! Still forecasted to become Hurricane Adrian in a few days. Yqt1001 02:47, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * There we go! The party has officially begun. Not like it'll affect land, but it's worth mentioning. Hi, Adrian! Ryan1000 02:54, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well I might as well post some information. (I wanted to post about it being upgraded first, I was refreshing the NHC page constantly for 30 minutes :P) It is currently forecasted to become a category 2 hurricane before rapidly dissipating and the NHC gives it a 60% chance of rapid intensification in the next day. Will be fun to track over the next week! Yqt1001 02:58, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it will reach 90 knts. Atomic said 70 knts and Darren said 100 knts. What does everyone else think? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  03:25, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm thinking a peak around 70 - 80 kts. <font color="#ff7f00" family="Nyala">atomic <font color="#0000ff" family="Nyala">77 <font color="#00FF00" family="Nyala">32 04:25, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * BTW, I'm up to 105 kts. I have a feeling this one is going to explode in the next 6-12 hours. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 05:24, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm up to 95 knts for me. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:03, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure, but hurricane Celia became a cat. 5 last year, and it was never forecast to do so. Adrian may become a major hurricane, but anywhere past 120 mph is out of the question IMO. If it does become Hurricane Adrian, the 1987 Adrian will still remain the most rescent Adrian to not become a hurricane. As a side note, there is a "Retirements at a glance" section in the Southern Hemisphere forum, though no one has really bothered to go there... Ryan1000 14:15, June 8, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical storm watch for a portion of the Mexican coast. 5 mph from hurricane strength right now, looks like we will see Hurricane Adrian in 6 hours! NHC also predicts the storm getting to 110mph winds before dissipating, so looks like we will get very close to Major Hurricane Adrian if we don't get to 115mph winds. Yqt1001 14:54, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's heading north-northwest at only 5 mph, but it's forecast to change to WNW soon. If it manages to pick up some steam, we could have it near the Mexican coastline, or briefly make landfall. I highly doubt it will be a bad storm for Mexico, but high surf, rip currents, and heavy rain could still cause rough conditions on the Mexican coastline. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 15:28, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * A surprising thing for me is how fast the NHC weakens it after 5 days. They're saying it would be a Post-tropical remnant low by Day 7 (168 hours). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:31, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am going with 85 knts, it does not look like it was going to strength anymore. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:57, June 8, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Adrian
First hurricane of the season! NHC still has it going up to nearly 110mph winds before dissipating. NHC still says rapid intensification is likely. Yqt1001 00:02, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Party! Yay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:37, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Best Track now has it at 70 kts/987 hPa. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:49, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am so excited with this system. I don't think this will happen, but I hope it beocmes a MH YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC has Adrian at nearly 50% for category 3 strength in 24 hours. They really seem to think that this storm will explode tonight and tomorrow. Yqt1001 03:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hope it does. These are the good storms to watch, the 'canes that head out to sea, don't affect land, and we can root on them to get as strong as possible! I'm liking Adrian's looks; it's rather impressive on the sattelites, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does intensify into the season's first MH. Ryan1000 03:23, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * And... winds are up to 90 mph now and the pressure plunged to 979 mbars. It's not far off from MH status, and I wouldn't be surprised if it does become one soon. However, it better get on with it; time is running out. Ryan1000 13:18, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It looks like 105 mph right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:21, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * That's 90 knots, not mph. The wikipedia data on Adrian says 90 knots, but the winds are only 90 mph, or 80 knots. The latest advisory might up it to that, however, and it certainly is impressive on the sattelites. Ryan1000 13:24, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * The eye looks really similar to Igor's eye as Igor was rapidly intensifying. In fact you put the two storms next to each other and the only thing that is different is the not quite so round shape on Adrian and more ragged rainband because of dry air on the north side of Adrian. Yqt1001 13:30, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It still is very well-organized, and it has a chance to become a major hurricane soon. It is inhaling some dry air on the north side of the circulation, but that may not be enough to stop it from becoming the first category 3 storm of the EPac season. There also is a brand-new storm in the WPac as well. We're getting a pretty good start if you ask me. Also, Adrian's fate may not exactly be nothing; the mid-level ridge over Mexico is expected to weaken as a trough from the Western U.S. pulls down and heads into Mexico, tearing up the ridge and possibly pulling it northward. If Adrian slows down, while the trough picks up, then the ridge will break down and pull it to the north, making a landfall in Mexico. If Adrian goes at the rate it is now, though, then it will encounter lots of shear, and die away very fast 5 days from now. Ryan1000 13:34, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Dry air now getting to the eastern side of Adrian now. If he keeps on doing this,
 * Adrian will not achieve the major hurricane status predicted. Although this might
 * happen, i still think Adrian will acheive category 2. 70.125.44.207 14:04, June 9, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Adrian
Eyewall is starting to collapse but it has winds of 115mph now! Won't be around for much longer, the dry air is really getting to it but hey, it's a major hurricane now! Yqt1001 15:06, June 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * Wohoo! First MH of the season! And yeah, it'll probrably stop there, the northern half of the eyewall has almost completely collapsed. Anyhow, it's going good! Category 3, perhaps it could hit 120 mph, but it won't last long either way. Ryan1000 16:43, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Held at 115 mph. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Hello? Is anybody home? Adrian is Cat 4 now! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:53, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, I was not expecting that! It now has the winds up to 135 mph and 950 mbars. Reminds me of Julia of last year's AHS a bit. It has an outside chance of becoming a 5, but I won't count on that. Either way, this storm is exciting! Ryan1000 22:57, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow! I was not expecting this at all either. Surprising that it is still intensifying despite dry air and cooling water, but in theory the water never stopped Julia. It's really impressive now on the satellites, it's nearly symetrical and the dry air doesn't seem to be destroying the storm as much as it was before. Even the eyewall looks good now! Yqt1001 23:10, June 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's now up to 140 mph/946 hPa. That should certainly be its peak. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:53, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it'll probrably die down now, but it was worth watching! The intensity forecasting can be very far off from hurricanes, as Adrian and Julia showed us. You never know what tricks mother nature can pull on us. Ryan1000 02:19, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Why is everyone thinking the storm peaked? It still has another good 24 hr left before it weakens because it is Annular. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:45, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess anything still is possible, this storm is at 140mph winds right now anyways (I was doubting that it will reach category 3 strength not even 14 hours ago!). NHC says it still has 12-18 hours to develop and then in 24 hours it will start weakening, so anything is possible. Yqt1001 02:56, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, the stronger, the better. I think Adrian has a shot at category 5 due to it's current strength, but it all depends. Anything is possible, but I have no idea how strong it may get to be. I hope it does get to category 5 because it won't be affecting land either way, and the EPac cat. 5's are the fun ones to watch. No threat to land, and we can root for him to get as strong as possible! Ryan1000 03:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am dying for a Cat %. I JUST HAVE A FELLING IT WILL REACH IT. IF IT DID IT WOULD BE AWESOME MAN. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC)

Cat 5 is pushing it! Seriously, its remarkable that it reached Category 4 intensity. I mean, yeah, with all that dry air around it, it's surprising that it has rapidly intensified to that. Considering all data, the I believe the Maximum potential intensity of the storm right now is at 130-130kts, with dry air and SST's being the main limiting factor. Adrian is close or is nearing its peak intensity because its traversing through progressively cooler waters. That being said, because this storm is exhibiting features reminiscent of an annular hurricane, it will maintain the peak intensity for quite a long time, possibly right until it passes the 26.5 degree boundary, and it could maintain its intensity for even longer than that. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 04:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * You can't tell what it'll do, Darren. Daniel of 2006 almost became a cat. 5, and it likely would've had the ridge north of Daniel not headed back to Mexico like it did, leaving it over the weak steering currents near Hawaii. Annular hurricanes don't weaken as fast as other hurricanes if they are in unfavorable conditions, but they also happen to maintain their intensities more than strengthen. Anyhow, I hope it does reach category 5 because it is in the perfect position to do so. Out to sea, not affecting land, and just an all ya can root for storm. Matter of fact, this storm is not weakening as much as I otherwise had thought so, and Adrian controlls his own destiny as of now. Ryan1000 11:57, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Everyone here should be just as excited as I am. We will have another day to look at a beautiful hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well it is starting to weaken now, so yeah I think it has hit it's peak. Although it isn't impossible for it to strengthen 25mph over the next 12 hours, it just doesn't seem too likely. But this storm was pretty awesome, it showed how unpredictable these storms are in the end and the best we can do is just hope our predictions are right. I know if I told myself 24 hours ago that this storm would become a category 4 storm I would be thinking "What!?!?!" because I was hoping for a category 3 but I didn't think even that is likely. Yqt1001 14:50, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's now down to 135 mph and 948 mbars, and the weakening trend will continue for the next few days until it goes away forever. Anyhow, it was great to watch. I was stunned to see Adrian reach category 4, but 2 days ago i'd be stunned if it cracked a 3. It happens to mark the second consecutive year with a category 4 hurricane in June, not sure if that's a record, but it was great to watch either way! I'll be tracking it until it dies away. Ryan1000 15:22, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * A very interesting first storm of the season! I hope it's a precursor to an interesting season. HurricaneFiona 21:14, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to category 3 now. It's eyewall is starting to wear away and it may die down soon, but behind Adrian, we have a small area of thunderstorms south of Central America which could become future Beatriz. The Pacific is on a roll, 4 storms as of today, June 10(Aere, Songda, Adrian, and Sarika), and lots of the season left too. The Atlantic has yet to begin, but it is not at all surprising to me that the AHS hasn't started yet; it's only June 10. Ryan1000 22:06, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh well, our eyes turn to the AOI soon. Still looks ok. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * Now it's eyelike structure has fallen apart; I wouldn't be surprised if Adrian now falls down to a category 2 or lower on the next advisory; the eye itself has almost completly dissapeared. It was still fun to watch though! Ryan1000 02:20, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Adrian (sadly)
Good prediction Ryan, anyways yes, it's back down to category 2 now that it's eyewall crashed on itself. Was very fun to watch, I'm adding it to my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 03:01, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, Adrian was so awesome. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:06, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * It was fun to watch while it lasted, but now it will (sadly) slowly die away until it's never seen again. You were a great 'cane, Adrian. Long shall you go in the Pacific hall of fame! Ryan1000 04:40, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's down to a category one, 85 mph, and it will slowly die away from here. I wouldn't be surprised if today is Adrian's last day on earth, or tomorrow, but he was such a great 'cane. Ryan1000 14:37, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Adrian (sadly)
Adrian need to go to the hospital. He has hypothermia. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:58, June 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * Poor Adrian. He was such a great storm, but now he's dying away from the disease known as wind shear and infection known as dry air. Well, he was great to watch. Today might be his last day I'll ever see this once great cane. Ryan1000 15:36, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * How come you kept the (sadly) title on this one and not the Hurricane Adrian one!? :P Anyways, he was a wonderful storm to watch and I think he deserves a #1 or #2 spot on my favourite storms this year list. Yqt1001 15:45, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * YE put it as sadly first, but then I changed it... Oh well. Now I put both as (sadly) since he was really a great 'cane. Sarika in the WPac is gone, but it did kill 25 people and do 248 million in damage to China. Also, the NIO has their second storm as well(named ARB 01), but i'm not exactly going to put any bets on it becoming a monster, possibly a minor TS. The tropics are really kicking into gear. Adrian will likely become a TD later today and die out tonight. I might nickname him "Awesome Adrian", for my favorite storm of 2011 thus far. Ryan1000 19:26, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Last advisory issued. :( Yqt1001 14:39, June 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * Was great tracking you, Adrian! Ryan1000 16:06, June 12, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:Near Central America

 * Small, Auree mentioned this on IRC. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone

It just keeps getting better and better everyone! Here comes our next one! I'm counting on Beatriz soon, perhaps in a few days. Ryan1000 02:21, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * I would not be surprised to see a storm out of this. Yqt1001 03:03, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is barely the beginning, everyone. The outflow of Adrian may hinder (Beatriz), but it likely will follow in his great footsteps and hang out at sea. Ryan1000 04:43, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looking good. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:57, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * And getting better. We could easily have this storm become Beatriz and the wave near Panama become Calvin before the 20th of June. We're already trying to catch up to 2010's early hot streak, but unlike 2010, we aren't in La Nina conditions now. We're slowly starting to get more favorable here. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * This wave looks better than Adrian right now (looks better, not is more tropical than Adrian). I think that this storm has a very good chance at becoming Beatriz. Yqt1001 23:02, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * No mention on TWO, idk why? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * It's taking its time to develop, apparently, but I would be surprised if it doesn't develop at all. Ryan1000 00:17, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's failing and so are these forums. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:47, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well the tropics are dead now that the 3 storms (Sarika, Adrian and One) are gone. I'm just waiting until another storm forms or until the NHC mentions this on their TWO. If neither of these storms form, it looks like the next active basin in the Western Hemisphere will be the Atlantic in 14 days when all conditions become favourable for an Alex like storm to smash into the US coast (or that's what the models think). Yqt1001 14:10, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * I personally do not want to watch the north Atlantic storms at all, because the storms there aren't fun to watch. The storms we like to watch on Wikia are the ones that don't affect land and we can root on for them to get as strong as possible, guilt-free ooing and ahhing, and no threat to anyone. Adrian is an example; he got quite a bit of attention because he was so fun to watch over him having no threat on land. North Atlantic storms cause lots of destruction and deaths, and storms that do that aren't fun to watch. They are heartbreaking and sad to the people they affect. Ryan1000 14:57, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Good point Ryan, it's nice too not have the guilt of hundreds of people when you track storms (especially when you live so far from hurricanes you don't know what they are like). But I guess for now the only thing to watch is the eruption of Nabro Volcano in Eritrea. Yqt1001 15:28, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I have no idea of how bad people may feel after a hurricane. I mean, many people from hurricane Katrina have lost everything after that storm, including their lives. When a massive major hurricane is heading towards U.S. soil, or towards anywhere for that matter, we don't cheer for it on hurricane Wiki, we wait until the storm has passed and explain details behind the storm in the retirements at a glance section or so. It's not fun to cheer on storms there in the ATL forum. To put it bluntly, the EPac should really be the most active forum on this Wiki and not the north Atlantic because we can root on most of the hurricanes that are in this basin with no harm to anyone's feelings. Rarely do hurricanes here ever make landfall, let alone become retired. Because Mexico gets hit with hurricanes all the time, they have gotten stricter with retirement, as they have showed us last year with Alex and Karl, but they have a very strange track record for EPac names IMO. they retired Pauline of 1997, which killed 230 people and they didn't retire Tara of 1961, which killed nearly 500 people. They retired Isamel of 1995 which killed 116 people and not Liza of 1976, which killed 600 to 950 people. They retired Kenna and not Norbert. Central America retired Alma and not Agatha. It goes to show retirements can be random in this basin, but because many hurricanes here never affect land, they are fun to watch out to sea. Ryan1000 16:48, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, the EPCc forum is the most active forum on here. I can recall such a long thread made about an AOI. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * 94L... Maybe? The SHem probrably got a litle more activity as a whole, including the sections I archived, but I feel the Pacific forum may be the most active overall this year. The AOI hasn't exactly gotten it's act together any further since this section began, but I hope it does develop. Ryan1000 22:24, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * This AOI fails. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:15, June 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it's falling apart. Ever since Adrian and Sarika, the tropics have settled down. They will likely remain at this way until later this month or July, when we get some more EPac/WPac storms or have a storm or two to kick off the AHS. Ryan1000 23:34, June 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still 10$. It needs to organize and then it will be just fine. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:22, June 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's looking better on sattelite imagery, but it's just not developing. The area of T'storms off of Nicaragua are not showing signs of developing either; they are too close to land, and under too much shear. This wave may still become Beatriz, but I won't put any bets on it as of yet. It's certainly not out of the question... Our eyes now turn to the new storm in the WPac. Ryan1000 17:05, June 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess Beatriz might have to wait. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:27, June 15, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi:moving over SA and Panama

 * Technically in the ATL, but slowly moving westward. Could become Calvin in like 5 days. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:00, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

Wow, we're getting active! We have the wave south of CA which could become Beatriz, another wave which could become Calvin, and future Keila in the Arabian Sea. I'm fully on the lookout. Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Does not want to enter the EPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:49, June 13, 2011 (UTC)

I guess we're slowing down a bit. Oh well, we will respring into activity at one point or another. Ryan1000 14:59, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Merged with the above system. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:20, June 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 10%. Yqt1001 17:08, June 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * This forum is dead..but might not be for long, 30% chance of development now. 216.211.40.158 12:09, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Shoot 216! I was gonna say that! Anyway, I do think Two-E (or even Beatriz) is coming. Andrew444 13:02, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I would not count on this system to develop. Looks very broad and unorganized. If it
 * organizes better, it will have a higher chance of becoming a tropical cyclone with this
 * system. OWEN2011 17:21, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sorry Andrew, I tend to always be around when the NHC updates the TWOs..but wow 2 new(ish) members in a day! Must be a new record! And yeah, the low keeps getting broader, but I feel it's because it just merged with another wave. Yqt1001 17:26, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, welcome Andrew! BTW Yqt, Owen was here a litle earlier in the "2010 Retirees Pool" forum, but the tropics are slowing down a bit. The new WPac depression dissipated from an Anticyclone, and 02B is just about to make a landfall in Bangladesh, while Beatriz may have to wait. Anyhow, a little bit of activity won't hurt. Also, if you haven't noticed, we have Betting pools here too, Andrew and Owen. Ryan1000 17:46, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, I know about those. Andrew444 18:05, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, never mind. It's kind of sad that many people only care about north Atlantic hurricanes and not anywhere else. I like the EPac the most because hurricanes here don't affect land and are fun to watch out to sea. We should not watch North Atlantic storms because as I mentioned above, north Atlantic hurricanes are very destructive and deadly. They are heartbreaking disasters and are sad to speak of. We don't root for hurricanes to kill people or do lots of damage. We root for hurricanes that head out to sea to get as strong as possible with no threat on land. That's all in the EPac's book, somewhat the WPac and SPac. Ryan1000 18:17, June 16, 2011 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Investe'd at 40%. Go 92E!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 17:51, June 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Ack, I was just going to post that! Yeah, I hope we get something out of this, nice to have some activity out there. I think we could see Tropical Storm Beatriz (at least) from this. HurricaneFiona 17:56, June 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It's a rather sad excuse for an invest as of now, but by god I hope it develops! ...And you beat me by a minute, Fiona! Ryan1000 17:57, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * This section was a mess so I "fixed it", hope it's ok with you guys. Yqt1001 19:17, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not upset over anything not being "fixed", but 92E is just too broad and unorganized, and I won't put any bets on Beatriz in the near future. We may be slowing down a bit, but it won't happen for long. Ryan1000 23:08, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Once the convention become concentrated, we will be ok. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:52, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmmm, SHIPS (my favorite intensity model) is fairly bullish with this system, taking it up to Category 1 intensity by the next week. I fully expect this system to get its act together within the next 3 days, and because it is or will be entering into a favorable environment, I think this storm to intensify to at least strong tropical storm strength. On a side note... I think this is the most bullish I have ever forecast the EPAC basin :P
 * I don't think we will see anything past a minor TS out of this one, but because the EPac and the WPac are the only basins worldwide that are actually spitting out storms, it's worth paying attention to. Ryan1000 01:53, June 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looking better, it's TWO time. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:44, June 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's a little smaller and more concentrated now, but it better get on with it. It's close to the southern coast of Mexico, and it has a chance to make landfall, if it doesn't go out to sea. The area of thunderstorms off of Nicaragua in the Caribbean have also been staying there for some time, but they aren't within a closed circulation, like this invest is(or will be). Ryan1000 18:05, June 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well it's at 50% now..looks like we have a decent chance of seeing Beatriz. Yqt1001 19:28, June 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Models have shifted more towards the coast today, and SHIPS has returned to its hurricane forecast. The models are predicting a track similar to another early season hurricane, Andres 09. While it seems like the storm is going to form further east than Andres, intensity-wise they could be close. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:35, June 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Perhaps we could see Beatriz, not a bad start for a B name, but Beatriz is heading parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interaction with land may certainly hinder it, but still I am expecting Beatriz to come onto us in another few days or so. Probrably won't become like Adrian, but it certainly bears watching as it parallels the coast and then heads out to sea, there is still a threat for flooding and mudslides. Ryan1000 23:54, June 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * 92E is at 60% now. We may see our second storm from this. Andrew444 03:02, June 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it's pretty likely, 60% chance is a very high chance and the low is deepening and the circulation is very visible. The area it is in is very favourable also, so I feel the odds on this becoming 02E is high enough to warrant a bet now. Yqt1001 04:19, June 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still at 60%. but looking better. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:08, June 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm expecting Beatriz, but ahead of this thing there is a crapload of shear south of Baja. If it explodes, it has a chance to make landfall and there is still a threat from coastal flooding as it parallels the coast. Ryan1000 16:31, June 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * This thing has not been getting any better organized. I expect this thing to not be an Adrian
 * for sure. OWEN2011 19:56, June 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, it has lair. Stop begin a downcaster, okay. Anyway, it is now at 70% and looks better. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone 23:40, June 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like it will develop after all. It's slowly organizing, but even though I also think category 4 is out of the question, per what Adrian showed us a little earlier, and per what Julia of last year's AHS showed us, never say never. Ryan1000 01:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Even though before I said it may not develop, I have a feeling now we will get a tropical depression
 * but that doesn't mean hope for a big storm, IF some of you are. I went on NOAA though and
 * saw all these conditions that may not allow this thing to develop. OWEN2011 02:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Um, no waters are warm and is is not too far from land. There is some northeasterly shear, which /should/ prevent an explosion, but I wont rule it out. This has a remote chance of becoming a deadly storms, but again I am not rull it out. I hope it does develop into a moderate TS, but does not do too much from Mexico and if anyone gets affected, I hope its the drug dealers. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:01, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC has it at 80% now with a very high chance that it will form Sunday evening. Yqt1001 05:59, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm expecting Beatriz now, but I don't think we'll see anything more then a category 1 from it. Thing is, it's close enough to Mexico to worry me, I hope everyone there is alright. HurricaneFiona 07:26, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just noticed, it's been upped to 90%. They even say that "a tropical depression may be forming" and "advisories may be issued later this morning" HurricaneFiona 10:40, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I do not know how bad it may be for Mexico, I mean, I was never expecting Agatha of last year to be as deadly as it was, but Alma of 2008 hit Nicaragua as a TS, and it didn't do so much(it did become retired, despite the minor impacts... it's one of many EPac retirements that remains a mystery to me... ?_?) Mountanous coastlines or areas with mountains period don't mix very well with rainfall, but it all depends on the size, speed, and strength of the storm, and the area it hits. In the case of Beatriz, I hope it will remain as far offshore as possible, and stay at sea like Adrian did. Ryan1000 12:44, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * A tropical depression i think has already formed. 173.168.145.18 13:07, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Um, Not quite. It is so close to becoming Beatriz though. This is what was quoted from the NHC's tropical weather outlook in the EPac:

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING''. ''IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...Well, I think it's time to say hello to our second storm of the season, and possibly first landfall. Ryan1000 13:25, June 19, 2011 (UTC)

T.C.F.W. 02E/TD/B/CX MARK 13.13N/100.8W Say hello to Tropical Depression 2E? OWEN2011 13:43, June 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * I Think the NHC is waiting for DMIN to see how the storm is holding up, they did the same for Adrian, he was at "Near 100% Chance" for nearly 18 hours. Yqt1001 13:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, but they put the advisories will be initialed crap one. And it looks like a TD as well. 91E did not. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:34, June 19, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:37, June 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yay! Second storm of the season! I will have to wait though, it could be a big flood event even if it doesn't become strong, keep your eyes out, Mexico. Ryan1000 14:40, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Recon schedule for tomorrow into the system. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * You beat me to it again, YE! I'm expecting Beatriz soon, and I don;t think it'll be higher then category 1 intensity. Still, weak doesn't mean it won't be bad... HurricaneFiona 14:58, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Finally! Only took 92E days to form! And I see there is a hurricane watch for the Mexico coast, looks like we might see Hurricane Beatriz. Yqt1001 15:00, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * NOAA's forecast track for TD 2-E is here, and the forecast shows it becoming a minimal hurricane before nicking at the tip of the coast near Manzanillo, and then heading out to sea. Even if it does briefly make landfall, it won't be over land for a very long time. Even so, coastal flooding could still be a problem as it nears Mexico, and even though the forecast shows it becoming only a category one, given the favorable conditions ahead of it in a few days, I would not be surprised if it explodes before it(briefly) makes landfall. Stay tuned. This one bears watching for sure. Ryan1000 15:21, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * PARTY! PARTY! Should by interesting to track. I love the EPAC, you've been so awesome to me this month. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:25, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I expect Two-E to become Beatriz by tonight. Andrew444 16:28, June 19, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Beatriz
YAY! YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:35, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow only ~3 hours between invest and TS. Yqt1001 17:49, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Beatriz seems to be in a slightly favorable environment. It seems though we might
 * see a hurricane on our hands soon. The NHC forecasts 75 mph. OWEN2011 18:11, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * (Now) I think Beatriz is going to become a hurricane by Tuesday. I would say 90 mph at the most. Andrew444 20:24, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hurricane warning issued for portions of Mexico. Beatriz is still at 40mph. Yqt1001 21:22, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 40mph winds, but NHC says she will near hurricane strength in 24 hours. NHC also says that hurricane conditions are to be expected over the next day in the warning areas (destructive waves, flooding and winds), the rainbands are already affecting the coast. Yqt1001 23:52, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow, I knew we would be seeing Beatriz but now that it's over these warm waters and low shear it's just taking off. The people in southern Mexico need to get ready NOW. Just because it won't get past a category 1 or so doesn't mean it won't be bad. This could be our first big hit of the season. Ryan1000 00:13, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 45mph winds. Yqt1001 02:40, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph winds, and now forecast to be nearly a category 2 hurricane when she brushes the coast, I don't think that category 2 force winds will touch Mexico, but 75mph winds-80mph winds probably is a possibility. Yqt1001 13:36, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 65 now per RBT. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  14:22, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's clearly getting better organized, but I think rather than making a brief landfall, it will just miss the western tip of Mexico near Manzanillo. It's not out of the question, but it all depends. I'm closely watching Beatriz. Ryan1000 16:04, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Seems like Hunters are about 30 mins-1 hour from intercepting the center of Beatriz. Can't wait to get some info. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:42, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Probrably won't be that bad, but it's certainly exciting as the EPac and WPac are the only basins actually spitting out storms. I'll still be on the lookout. Ryan1000 17:49, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * I reckon she might be Hurricane Beatriz soon, she looks quite good - but we'll see. HurricaneFiona 18:54, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * RBT now has Beatriz at 70 mph. No doubt this storm should become a hurricane. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:12, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Last recon pass had Beatriz at 991 hPa and max SFMR surface winds at 70 kts and max FL winds at 74 kts. Seems like a 'cane to me. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:05, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NHC predicts 80 mph winds. Andrew444 20:11, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70mph winds as of the 2PM PDT update, hurricane warnings extended northwestward and tropical storm force winds already touching the coast. Yqt1001 20:42, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70mph winds as of the 2PM PDT update, hurricane warnings extended northwestward and tropical storm force winds already touching the coast. Yqt1001 20:42, June 20, 2011 (UTC)

You've got to be kidding me NHC! It's a goddamn hurricane you stupid conservative fools!(JK) Oh well, I think it should be a hurricane when the Interm. adv. comes. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:58, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Agreed completely, but it does look like a 70 mph storm. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  21:36, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * For me Beatriz would not cause a lot of damge except for gusty winds and heavy rain unless it strength more or make landfall. Allan Jeffs 22:04, June 20. 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, tropical storms can cause that don't make landfall can still cause a lot of damage like what happened din Frank 2010 or Adrian 99 or even Juliette 01 and John 06 caused a lot of damage when the storm was offshore. Even Douglas 08 and Elida 08 caused some flooding while remaining offshore, but not as bad as the others. It is true, that other like Blanca 09 and Dora 05 and Hillary 05 did little impact to the coast, but again this is just a few of the storms. I can gone on and on. Stay tuned. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone
 * I really think Beatriz has now weakened unexpectedly. Anyone else think so? OWEN2011 23:54, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Why? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t6/avn-l.jpg looks like a 70 mph storm IMO. It looks like ti wants to make landfall though. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:57, June 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * How has it weakened? It just had a burst of nice looking cold cloud tops in the CDO. I have a feeling that will prompt the NHC to upgrade it. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:52, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree. though i think i would trim it's intensity a little possibly
 * because of land interaction. 65.32.55.172 01:10, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * (Hurricane) Beatriz, is shrinking, but that may not mean weakening. We may never know how bad it may be, but YE, a ton of landfalls doesn't mean a ton of impact. 1996 had 5 landfalls(in a season with just 9 storms), but none of those 5 landfalls were particularly bad. 1971 is another example. In that year, we had 9 total landfalls from either the EPac or the Atlantic, which was the highest number of landfalls in Mexico from any one season on record. The second highest was 8 in 2003, but none of the 8 landfalls in that year or the 9 from 1971 were particularly bad, although Hurricanes Ignacio and Marty in 2003 did do 1 billion in damage combined to Baja. We'll have to wait and see what Beatriz will do. It's small size will localize it's destruction, and it won't be affecting a large portion of Mexico anyways. Regardless of what happens, it promises to be an interesting storm for the next 48 hours. Ryan1000 01:19, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can hardly believe Beatriz is not a hurricane. It should be one by the next advisory. Andrew444 01:56, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adv time. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:34, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * because of land interaction. 65.32.55.172 01:10, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * (Hurricane) Beatriz, is shrinking, but that may not mean weakening. We may never know how bad it may be, but YE, a ton of landfalls doesn't mean a ton of impact. 1996 had 5 landfalls(in a season with just 9 storms), but none of those 5 landfalls were particularly bad. 1971 is another example. In that year, we had 9 total landfalls from either the EPac or the Atlantic, which was the highest number of landfalls in Mexico from any one season on record. The second highest was 8 in 2003, but none of the 8 landfalls in that year or the 9 from 1971 were particularly bad, although Hurricanes Ignacio and Marty in 2003 did do 1 billion in damage combined to Baja. We'll have to wait and see what Beatriz will do. It's small size will localize it's destruction, and it won't be affecting a large portion of Mexico anyways. Regardless of what happens, it promises to be an interesting storm for the next 48 hours. Ryan1000 01:19, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can hardly believe Beatriz is not a hurricane. It should be one by the next advisory. Andrew444 01:56, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adv time. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:34, June 21, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Beatriz
Now at 75 mph/985 mb! In your face, Owens. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:45, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Damnit YE! You beat me by 20 seconds! Anyways hurricane force winds are on the coast of Mexico already and NHC now expects it to reach 85mph now (down from 90mph). Yqt1001 02:48, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't know if I'm more surprised that the NHC is taking it to 75 kts (Too high IMO) or that they don't weaken it faster because of the land interaction. But no surprise on the upgrade here. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:53, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well Darren, you were right. This storms is just like Andres. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:55, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * This one reminds me more of Eugene of 1987 or Calvin of 1993 more than Andres 2 years ago, but not quite as ferocious, let alone as strong. Andres came close to Mexico in 2009, but it remained far enough offshore not to cause signifigant damage. Beatriz is so unbelievably close to Mexico(and still heading NNW at 12), there is virtually no chance it will not make landfall as of now. The good thing is, damages from wind and flooding will likely be localized anyway and not be a problem for the entire country of Mexico as a whole, and due to it's very small size, this thing will die like wildfire when it goes over the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains near the coast. Mexico's southern coast is not a happy place for hurricanes. I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow(or later today) is Beatriz's last day on earth. Ryan1000 05:07, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan do you think Calvin of 1993 should had been retired? Allan Jeffs
 * YE, I never said it CANT get up to hurricane status. I may have got confused
 * though if it was weakening or not. Anyway, winds at 90 mph right now.
 * OWEN2011 13:13, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * YE, I never said it CANT get up to hurricane status. I may have got confused
 * though if it was weakening or not. Anyway, winds at 90 mph right now.
 * OWEN2011 13:13, June 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Looks like it's not dealing with the land well atm, I think 90mph is its peak. Yqt1001 14:31, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I cannot believe the NHC still thinks Beatriz will head out to sea. For god's sake, it's eyewall has already struck the coast and it's still heading NW; Beatriz will likely briefly make landfall if it hasn't already. If I were them, I would just put the track over Cabo Corrientes and dissipate it by tomorrow or so. It's already starting to fall apart. Allan, I think Calvin of '93 would have been a good storm to retire; it caused a lot of problems in several areas throughout western Mexico in 1993, in addition to fairly extensive damage and a moderately high death toll. Apparently, Mexico put some deep thought into that, but decided not to retire him in the end. Kenna was almost the same story in October 2002(but she was retired), and so was Ismael in 1995. Ryan1000 14:53, June 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Beatriz (again) (sorry) :(*
No sadly this time, but the NHC seems to think that Beatriz will regain hurricane strength in 12 hours. Yqt1001 17:57, June 21, 2011 (UTC)

Edit conflicts!!! Anywho, Beatriz's short and happy life (I got that from Vince's discussion back in 2005) is dying away. *I put it on since I was editing this and conflicts happened. Sorry if I ruined everything. Andrew444 18:06, June 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH. The world is coming to an end. lo, just Kidding. Oh well, that was fun. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  18:51, June 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * What? The NHC still thinks it will reintensify into hurricane Beatriz? You've got to be fucking shitting me. I can hardly see any thunderstorms on the water vapor sattelite imagery from this thing. The interaction with the mountains of Mexico has squeezed just about all of the moisture out of this little bitch, and the remains of the thunderstorms are moving east towards Mexico city, not out to sea where she is. Not only can I not see hardly any thunderstorm action near the center of Beatriz, but it's heading into a less and less favorable environment out to sea, as the ridge moves away. The NHC would be better issuing their last advisory on Beatriz than forecasting her to get back to a hurricane. I'm surprised it's at 60 mph now. Based on the current structure from Beatriz now, she has absolutely no hope of survival into tomorrow. As a side note, we now officially have Haima in the WPac and a new TD formed there just yesterday and is now named "Falcon" by PAGASA. God, it just gets better and better! Ryan1000 00:58, June 22, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Beatriz
In one of the fastest weakenings in my experience, the NHC RBT has downgraded the ailing Beatriz to a 25 kt tropical disturbance! I nean yeah, holy s*** I never knew it was gonna weaken to a disturbance less than 24 hours from its 80 kt peak! <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:41, June 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not that surprised, when very small hurricanes like Beatriz make landfall in mountanous areas, they die like lightning. Lorenzo of 2007 didn't survive 12 hours or so after making landfall(in the same area Dean did earlier); Kenna of 2002 didn't last very long after hitting Mexico, and neither did Lane of 2006. Last advisory maybe? Ryan1000 01:56, June 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * The difference is that Beatriz wasn't really a traditional landfall, in a sense that it spent only a few hours over land, at most. Yes, its core was disrupted by the landfall paving way for dry, stable air, but even then it shouldn't have rapidly dissipated like. Other storms have survived longer over water under the same conditions. And btw, all the storms you mentioned completely made landfall, unlike this one where if it actually made landfall, it eventually went over water and during the landfall a large portion of the storm was not over land. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:06, June 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, yes the other storms I mentioned made landfall, but still, although small hurricanes can intensify much faster than big ones(if they are in very favorable conditions), they generally weaken quicker when they hit land. Larger hurricanes weaken slower, but intensify slower as well. Darren, even though Beatriz did not stay over land for a long time and rather just nicked at the western tip of Mexico at Cabo Corrientes, the mountains near shore where it hit still squeezed a ton of moisture from the storm in the time it hit. If this storm was an Atlantic storm of the same size that nicked at the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, like say, storm 2 of 1938, it probrably wouldn't have weakened as fast because the Yucatan Peninsula is not very mountanous wheras the area where Beatriz hit is. The structure of the coastline, in addition to the storm's speed, size of the circulation, and strength are huge factors in determining how fast it will weaken when it interacts with land. Also, wind shear, dry air, cooler waters, or just approaching land altogether can also be players in the game of landfall effects on the hurricane. Because it wasn't over land that long, it hopefully wasn't so bad for Mexico... I heard some people were killed and some damage was reported, but nothing is severe as of yet. Ryan1000 02:35, June 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * And last advisory. Was fun tracking you, Beatriz! Ryan1000 02:55, June 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * My point was, it wasn't supposed to rapidly weaken that fast. Even the NHC was surprised :P. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 03:05, June 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, we may never know what mother nature may do. It may have been surprising, but perhaps it encountered a crapload of shear or dry air when it did hit. At least 4 people were killed, and damage, if any, was likely insevere. Well, our eyes turn to Haima and Meari in the WPac. =). Ryan1000 18:08, June 22, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Off the coast of El Salvador
I stumbled upon the sat image of this system and I was shocked. It has a nice circulation and seems to be developing quite nicely. Surprisingly, nothing I found develops it. It will be interesting to watch what happens to this system. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:39, June 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * I hope it becomes Calvin. Ryan1000 05:18, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nvm, it was tagged as an "Invest" by the floaters, but TWD is saying that pesky little thing will dissipate in the next 24-48 hours. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:03, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, I think this has a chance to become Calvin. Water is warm and wind shear is not too high. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:29, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are taking this into the GoM, so I doubt this will become anything other than more fuel for the Atlantic disturbance. Yqt1001 18:48, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's a little disorganized, but it isn't out of the question for development of either storm. We have yet to have our first storm in the north Atlantic, and have had nothing since Beatriz. Meari made landfall in China/North Korea, and it is now down and out. Ryan1000 19:06, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Meari should have never been declared in the first place. As Cb said, the JMA sucks. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:19, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, either way we are on to a fine start. At this rate, I highly doubt we will have a 2010-like season worldwide. Ryan1000 19:54, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * And...it's gone! It was droppped by the TWD and OPC analysis and I don't see the LLC anymore over water. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:06, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah well. Calvin will come in July then... Ryan1000 20:37, June 26, 2011 (UTC)

Worldwide activity discussion
Since there's been a lot of discussion about this I created a section where we can talk about worldwide activity, and not in the storm section. Note:that this applies to entire worldwide, not just the EPAC. If this discussion beocmes out of hand, it will stop. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone


 * NOOOOOO!!!! The season has just begun! We did this last year in August, but in June? No way, Jose! The tropics ain't gonna be dead just yet. Why must we begin this in the first place? Were 6 days into the month of June and we're already talking about dead shit? Stop this right now! >:( Ryan1000 11:40, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Let's wait until September this time, just to be sure the world will be dead. The one thing that is rather dead, is these forums. Just me Ryan, YE and Fiona (occasionally)...looking through the archives this time of year last year, there was quite a bit more activity than this. Yqt1001 12:37, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I retitled the section, happy. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  13:38, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Haha, the occasionally made me laugh. I'm mid-exam season at the moment, so I don't have as much time as I would like. And yeah, the Pacific's a little later then normal but the Atlantic season only just started... it's too early to really speculate on the overall activity of either season! HurricaneFiona 15:55, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Humph. Better, but I hope we get some more activity this year. The only basin thus far in this year that really was dead was the SWIO, with only 2 storms, compared to an average of 10; AKA, their 1914. The Australian region had 7 storms, which is exactly what they should have, and the SPac saw six, comparing to an average of 9, but had 2 cat. 4's and a third which reached it in the Australian region, and became the costliest cyclone ever there. But do we have to already discuss about dead activity? For god's sake, complaining about this season being a bust as of now is like your teacher saying "you have 10 minutes to complete your entire 100-question exam". That's not fair! Please have patience, everyone! We didn't talk about the "Dead basin thing"(Which ME, MYSELF, And I Archived!) until August of last year, not so much June(other than Alex and EPac "retirements at a glance"). The most active years on the Hurricane Wikia were by far 2007 and 2008. In those years, every basin except the SHem and NIO got a lot of attention. The WPac got a lot of attention in those two years, the EPac a little, and the Atlantic a lot. 2009 was hurricane wiki's least active year ever. The WPac didn't get that much attention, and the Atlantic didn't either; the majority of the Atlantic activity was explaining on a worldwide standard as to how dead we really were. The EPac got a little bit of attention, but not so much, and the SHem and NIO forums weren't even made in 2009. There wasn't a single edit on the EPac forum in 2009 for the entire month of June. For god's sake, we missed Andres, TD one-E, and part of Blanca during that time. Rick, Jimena, and Neki were the only storms in the Eastern Pacific actually worth mentioning of to some extent. But we're just beginning here, and the lack of EPac and Atlantic activity doesn't really surprise me as of yet. Please have patience, or I shall delete this absolutely pointless section when I do not feel like it's boring!(end sarcasm) Ryan1000 17:02, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well the year certainly hasn't been that dead yet (I was just wondering how long it could keep the record low activity streak up), some basins are late to start. The SWIO activity shocked me this year and none of the northern hemisphere basins (though the WPAC did have a rare category 5 typhoon in May) have really started yet. Looks like both the EPac and ATL are starting up though. 91E is going to be TD1 if it stays as organized as it is now until 0000z (near 100%) and 94L has been upgraded to 50% chance. I`m still thinking that it will be an above-average year in the Atlantic with a very very high chance of a major hurricane hitting the US. Most of the season will be in neutral (last neutral year was 2005) so it will be relatively difficult to predict what the season will bring. I feel that other basins will easily recover the lack of activity in the SWIO. Yqt1001 18:09, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * It really depends on what comes onto us... The WPac and EPac basins have had inactive seasons several times since 1995, including 1998 and last year, the least active WPac seasons on record. The lack of SWIO activity and slight South Pacific inactivity will hinder us, but ever since Songda, we've fallen asleep here. And Yqt, our last neutral season was not 2005, but 2008. Many people believe that that season was La Nina, but the activity in the Pacific and Indian oceans didn't correspond to the changes in the north Atlantic. Despite what many may say, 2008 was neutral. Many thought it was La Nina due to the above-average activity and destructive storms, particularly Ike, but the activity in 2008's AHS wasn't that far above average and the EPac, WPac, and Indian ocean seasons didn't correspond to the rising SST's in the north Atlantic. The changes in the Atlantic didn't correspond to what happened out west. The Epac is warming up, but I personally don't see 94L becoming Arlene in the future. TD one isn't out of the question, but Arlene probrably is. 91E is future Adrian to me, and it may parallel Mexico or briefly make landfall in southern Mexico, possibly as a hurricane, before turning out to sea. Ryan1000 20:39, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh contraire! 2008 was La Nina by definition, which states that "La Niña is a coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that is the counterpart of El Niño as part of the broader El Niño-Southern Oscillation climate pattern. During a period of La Niña, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C." 2008 meets that criteria. Sure, the effects may not have been uniform with most La Nina's, but abnormal is normal (if you know what i mean...) The number of storms in a basin in a season does not always correspond with the climatic pattern (04 El Nino comes to mind). And you consider an ACE of 144% median "that far above normal"? I agree that 94L will not form, but I disagree about the Adrian landfall part (I think it'll remain a fish, albeit a hurricane one). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:16, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant that 2008 wasn't entirely La Nina, but if 2008 was La Nina, why was the Pacific not dead in 2008 like it was in 2010? La Nina years do not always follow the "rules" Darren, but 2008's ACE was not the most hyperactive season I've seen. The WPac last year had a mere 14 named storms, 8 typhoons, 4 majors and one Lone category 5. The EPac had 16-7-2 in 2008(including a retired TS!). The EPac activity was near normal in 2008, but 2010 had a mere 7 named storns, 3 'canes, 2 majors, and a cat. 5, least active season ever, in terms of 'canes and numbers. And 2008 also had nearly 50 billion in U.S. damage, yet not a single U.S. major hurricane inside that 50 billion, wheras 2010 didn't crack a single 'cane on U.S. soil, despite having more named storms, 'canes, and tying major canes. La Nina years do not always follow the rules, Darren, and in many rescent years, they haven't been at all. 2007 was a good example. Take out Dean and Felix in 2007, and what did we have? Downright Sh!t! Just 4 canes, none past category one intensity, and no storms that lived longer than, say 5 days. 2010 was the 3rd most active season ever in numbers, second most active in 'canes, and we had an ACE of just 165 in 2010, just 20 higher than 2008's, not a single U.S. hurricane, and not even close to 1995's ACE, with the same number of storms, yet 4th highest ACE in the top 10. I can't see a pattern with rescent La Nina years like those. Can you see a trend with all La Nina years? Absolutely not. 1973 was a La Nina as well, but by golly it didn't look like it! No U.S. hurricanes, the first time in 11 years, and hardly any landfalls at all, and a June cat. 5 in the EPac? La Nina year's don't gurantee bad seasons all the time, per 2007 or 1973, and in the same manner, El Nino year's aren't always quiet, per 2004. This year will likely be a near-neutral season, but I highly doubt some of these seasons were really like that based on the weather pattern i've seen. We have had 3 La Nina years since 2005, and during that time, we haven't had a single major hurricane cross U.S. soil, let alone the entire eastern seabord of the U.S.(!!), let alone were there any close calls at all(other than Earl of last year). I personally haven't found a constant trend between El Nino year's being very nice all the time or La Nina years always being bad for the Atlantic. I don't think you have either. So I suggest this topic stop right now. The experts were right when it came to the patterns of ENSO events, but the public are getting angry at them because they haven't nailed sh!t when it came to U.S. landfalls, other than 2008(which only goes to show 5 or 10 mph doesn't really make a difference when it comes to size and power of storms... Gustav and Ike). I personally don't see a pattern between these events. I suggest this discussion stop right now, because it's only June 7th. The season has just begun, and i'm not going to bustcast about sh!t in 2011, because this year has just begun. We didn't talk about this until last year in August, but f**k no we aren't doing this sh!t in June. No way, Jose! I personally highly doubt we will get a 2005-like season, but i'm leaning towards a neutral season, one that doesn't have 2005-like conditions. If anyone will bustcast about 2011 any further, or if this discussion gets any further out of hand, it will be discontinued. Period. Ryan1000 22:44, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2011 is not a bust, but it is not the best season ever either. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:54, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Some places in 2010 haven't been as active as usual(SWIO, NIO), but the Atl and EPac will not be busts. As I have mentioned several times before, we have gone SIX years without a landfalling hurricane on the east coast and haven't had a major U.S. 'cane either. People have gotten too complacent. A streak that long hasn't happened in a very long time, if ever. I think this season will be a very bad one, but people will likely think the next east coast hurricane or major hurricane will turn away and miss, as they have done in the past 6 years. This season will not be a good one, I don't think, but people can't wrap their minds around the fact we could have entire cities destroyed by storm surge and winds in just a few hours. We have had one lucky year too many. The SWIO and NIO are the only two basins that are dead as of what i've seen, but worldwide, I'm not counting on a 2010-like season. That year was second to 1977 as the least active worldwide season on record; see the Farewell section of the 2010 forum for specific details on the numbers. Ryan1000 23:06, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the ATL will be somewhat bad. I think we will get two landfall hurricanes in the US and a total of 2,3 billion in damage from all US systems combined. The NIO looks interesting right now, and I think the EPA will be two storms less than the 2008 total (including CPAC), with like 2008, three landfalling systems (1-E is not one of them). The WPAC activity will probably be around 25 storms IMO. Most importantly, everyone should prepare for the worst. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:42, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure of just 2.3 billion in damage(unless you meant 23 billion), but we never may know. I think the WPac will be a little less active than 25 named storms, but a 2010 repeat will most likely not happen. There are so many places in the U.S. that are overdue for a major hurricane right now. Miami, NYC, Savannah, Houston(Ike doesn't count), Corpus Christi, just a few examples. The NIO and SWIO don't account for a large portion of storms worldwide, but they will hinder us with their inactivity nevertheless. The Epac is the only interesting basin as of yet. The Atlantic will likely begin in July, if not August, but 94L isn't future anything now. The EPac is the only fun basin to watch as of now. Ryan1000 01:18, June 8, 2011 (UTC

I think the ATL US damage will be better than 2008/2004 not more than 2010, somewhat more than 2007. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:31, June 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Oh god, are we forecasting damages now? Mark my words, you can never, and probably will never be able to accurately forecast damages. Period. You can forecast the climatic patterns, but you can never forecast how much damages a season will make. You can only say that there is an "increased" chance for destruction, but you cannot say we will get 32, 50 10 or whatever damage figure you put up in the air. The amount of damages in a season does not always correlate with the activity. Forecasting damages also leads to bustcasting in the long run, so don't forecast damages please? <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:45, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's going to be an interesting season for US hits nonetheless. I'm rather happy that we did our Florida trip last summer (still got "hit" by Bonnie though) and our East Coast Canada trip this year. I really don't think that this year is bustcasting worthy at all, none of the predictions say that it will be quiet and the invest activity so far has been quite a bit. Anyways the only thing that I can say about damages is that it will be quite a bit if we get a landfall in America (I have a theory for this). Especially in one of the cities that are prone to a hurricane hit now (Savannah, NYC, Atlantic City, Tampa and Miami..interestingly when those cities were picked last year I was in Savannah..certainly not the feeling you want to know as a tourist!). Yqt1001 02:02, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Damned edit conflicts! >:( I would hope we get some U.S. landfalls in 2011, but not horrific U.S. storms. If we get a couple of big cat. 2 landfalls like what we got in 2008, that would be all we would need to wake us up in the U.S, so in the future, they aren't so bad. Ryan1000 02:22, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ideally, you want 0 US landfalling hurricanes, but I think the US is due fro another bad storm during the next few years, maybe one along the East Coast or south Texas. However, I hope this does not happen. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  02:47, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not that we want no U.S. storms, but we want people to know that hurricanes can hit us, and even if one hits for the first time in a long time, people must evacuate from that storm, even if they haven't experienced one before. Ryan1000 14:17, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I also feel like the reason Americans don't evacuate is because of their property and stuff they own. They don't want to leave it there and hope it survives because if they are there they think they can save something expensive or meaningful, but in reality, you can't really stop the devastation of a hurricane. I have a feeling that's why the American deaths are usually greater than hits in other developed countries. I also feel that's why companies can make tons of money selling things that are "hurricane proof". I bet you can probably make tons of money selling "Hurricane tape" to put over windows that is really just re-branded duct tape. I could only imagine how bad the deaths would be if a hurricane didn't hit the US in ~20 years and the people were comfortable and didn't evacuate when a category 5 storm was barreling down. However 2005 seems to leave a pretty scary mark on everyone's minds who remember that year.Yqt1001 14:44, June 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Many of the hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 weren't as deadly as the could've been(other than Katrina), because people have evacuated most of the time from hurricanes in those years. But since 2005, the only two hurricanes to cause signifigant damage in the United States were Ike and Gustav of 2008. A six-year streak without major hurricanes hasn't happened in a long time if ever, so when one does come calling in 2011, I hope people haven't forgotten the bad storms of the past and leave the coastline when told to. Ryan1000 15:37, June 8, 2011 (UTC)

Wow, the basins are so alive right now. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  16:58, June 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * Every basin in 2011 has had at least one storm thus far except the Atlantic, assuming 01A will become Keila. We're really kicking into gear! Ryan1000 19:41, June 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, perhaps not. Since the brief hot streak in the WPac and here, we have had nothing doing in the tropics. Ryan1000 14:59, June 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * But we are now! Andrew444 13:09, June 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * A little bit of activity won't hurt, but it's getting a little boring here... Anyhow, I'll be watching out for Beatriz in the next few days, and Haima in the WPac. Ryan1000 01:57, June 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * I have just counted the number of storms worldwide. We have 21 storms. A couple notes. First, Tropical Storm 6W is active, even though it's not named. Second, the SWIO actually saw three storms, because the final storm was TS equivlant, but Madagascar didn't name it. Andrew444 02:31, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am watching out for future-Haima. I think it will be an intereting storm to watch if if passes over Taiwan
 * or if it goes to the south. In the eastern pacific, I think in the coming days we might see a minimal
 * tropical storm Beatriz. In the atlantic i am on the lookout for activity. OWEN2011 02:54, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I only want to count the named storms.... and the storm that Madagascar refused to name was unnamed because it only briefly became a TS before it died out, and it wasn't affecting land anyways. I count storms like Subtropical Storm 10 of the 2009-10 SWIO season, not so much subtropical depressions. Anyhow, i'm not so worried about the Atlantic by now, June is closing up and we have yet to see our first named storm, let alone depression, there. Andrew, at this time last year, we had 28 named storms, with 30 at the end of June(Darby and Alex hadn't yet developed by this date), but after June the EPac and WPac slowed down to record-low values for the rest of the season, and I HIGHLY doubt we will get a 2010-like season here or in the WPac. We had only 68 named storms worldwide last year, 35 hurricanes, 18 majors, and 4 cat. 5's. The info about it in last year's forum is Here.
 * As a side note, I'm not going to look after any threatening North Atlantic storms this year, storms like Katrina, Ike, Andrew, if one happens, ect. I will pay attention to the fishspinners as they are fun to watch, but I don't like watching storms that kill people or do lots of damages. Thank god we have this forum. Ryan1000 13:07, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * As a side note, I'm not going to look after any threatening North Atlantic storms this year, storms like Katrina, Ike, Andrew, if one happens, ect. I will pay attention to the fishspinners as they are fun to watch, but I don't like watching storms that kill people or do lots of damages. Thank god we have this forum. Ryan1000 13:07, June 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * You tracked Yasi, and from the start it was forecast to make landfall in Queensland, you seemed to like watching it a lot..anyways its too early to call the 2010 AHS a bust, last year the season didn't really start until August, anyways conditions are looking favourable for another Alex like storm to form in about 7 days. Yqt1001 13:55, June 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wasn't cheering for Yasi, I was explaining the backround behind the storm, but I was by no means rooting for her. I was explaining storms of the past like Mahina or Larry that had struck the area in the past, and what made Yasi different, and more dangerous. I generally just want to wait until the storm has passed, and then we can explain details behind it in the Retirements at a Glance section. In the link I mentioned on the SHem forum, Yasi was a massive storm, and it was so big it would engulf the entire Gulf of Mexico and across the entire state of Florida, almost as big as Tip in the WPac. Cyclone Yasi wasn't fun or really exiting, but it was scary to watch and track and a heartbreaking disaster to the people of Queensland. I was shivering in anticipation of what the storm would do, but I never thought it would become so destructive, not even since the day it formed. Since Australia has retired a seemingly countless number of storms in the past which have done signifigantly less damage than Yasi, there should be no question on her retirement status. I may explain some backround behind the storm, but I won't root on anything(see Dean's archive in 2007; JasonRees and Cyclone1(now retired) were "rooting" for him when he became a category 5, but Eric(SkyFury) came and said we should all shut up and wait, as he was very dangerous at his 175 mph peak intensity, I think you might know what i'm talking about, no rooting, but explaining details behind it, or waiting until it passes). Ryan1000 14:31, June 19, 2011 (UTC)

Well it's been a while since this section has been active so I might as well post this here. I was looking through the models today and I couldn't help but notice this in 7 days. (Thats the GFS btw) Some of the other models show this, but those other models only show a weak TS rather than a moderate TS. Looks like the Atlantic season could start in a few days. Also shouldn't this section be it's own forum page rather than in the EPac page? Yqt1001 19:38, June 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, YE made this here for worldwide, not just the EPac, and the "Dead Basin Thing" last year went on quite a bit in the Atlantic forum page. Why can't the EPac have a lot of talking on it's page? Do people only have to care about the north Atlantic storms worldwide there as well? Ryan1000 21:32, June 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm perfectly fine with having it here, but it just didn't make much sense to have this here and not on its own forum. The Dead Basin Thing last year was originally meant for the NAtl only but eventually encompassed the whole world. I guess next year we should have this in the WPac then? :P Yqt1001 22:11, June 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends... Last year without the Atlantic, we would have had a 1977 repeat. Same in 2009 with the EPac, but, well, no one paid attention to that year, and we didn't get a single edit on the Epac forum during the entire month of June. We missed Andres, TD one, and part of Blanca. If we were as active as we are now back in 2009, the activity discussion would continue on for, probrably as long as the dead basin thing did last year in the Atlantic. I think this discussion should primarily go to the talk page of the basin encompassing the majority of the activity worldwide. Last year the Atlantic had this and the year before that the EPac should have had it, but it didn't because no one cared about 2009, really. Even so, it would be better IMO to have just one big discussion than a bunch of small ones. To be honest, it could actually go on any forum, but if the Atlantic has hardly any storms(or a small number compared to the EPac), then it's pointless to have this there. Thus far, the EPac and WPac are taking the majority of the activity, but that doesn't mean the Atlantic won't have anything as of yet. Many people care about the North Atlantic storms, but they wouldn't want to if we had very little activity there now would we? As a matter of fact, we could be onto the most active year on Hurricane Wiki history in 2011. The number of edits we've had on Hurricane Wiki is higher than it's been at any other year in the past as of this date. The WPac and the North Atlantic got a ton of activity in 2007, 2008, and 2010(well, not so much the WPac that year). Thus far in this year, we have had a ton of SHem activity, some activity in the NIO, a descent ammount of activity in the EPac and WPac, not to mention it's far from over, and a fine head start in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 23:12, June 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * As a side note, I made a New forum for this year, if you want to say your most favorite storms of 2011 there. I'll pick Adrian as 1st. =) Ryan1000 00:09, June 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * If we're talking about activity, I do want to point out that the Madden-Julian Oscillation is moving nicely into the Eastern Pacific/Atlantic. This is why Beatriz formed and this should help the Atlantic disturbance develop over the next few days. Also, in the long run, I would like to point out the SST anomaly for the Gulf of Guinea. It is cooler than usual. This means that the ITCZ will be farther north than usual, which will mean that there will be a higher-than-average Cape Verde season in the Atlantic. This is the reason why I increased the number of storms in my forecast and also why I increased the number of names I think will be retired in the Atlantic. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 18:14, June 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The MJO is influencing the activity, but I would think we are on to a neutral-like year. Also, when it comes to retired names, even though I personally think we will only get none to a few names, getting 4 or more names at the least isn't easy. Only 1955, 1995, 2004 and 2005 have had 4 or more names. Also, when I was doing some research behind retired names, I found out that the storms with the highest chances of retirement are storms that rip apart the Carribean, countries in central America, or not once-in a lifetime events for other places like Bermuda(Fabian 2003) and Canada(Juan and Igor) Just because we have a higher chance of U.S. landfalls doesn't mean we have a higher chance of retired names. The U.S. and Mexico get hit with hurricanes all the time, so the stakes for retirement in those two countries have gotten higher. Much higher. Last year, Hurricanes Alex and Karl combined caused about 7.5 billion dollars in damage to Mexico. Karl caused that 5.6 billion in Mexico's largest and oldest port city and Alex was described as the worst hurricane to hit Monterrey in a "long time". The reason why Mexico decided not to retire either is because they didn't cause a wide scope of problems and destruction across the entire country as a whole. Hurricanes like Kenna of 2002, Ismael of 1995, and Pauline of 1997 on the other hand, did. If the hurricanes this year miss the Caribbean and hit the U.S. instead, then we actually are less likely to see retired names. We can't make assumptions on just damages alone. You must look at the country affected and how many problems it did in the entire country as a whole. The U.S. may have gotten lucky, but that doesn't mean our retirement standards have gotten lower because of that.

Let me explain Hurricane Dean of 2007, for example. Hurricane Dean did hit Mexico as a category 5 hurricane and brushed Jamacia as a 4, but it caused more damage in the lesser antillies than it did to Mexico and Jamacia combined. Hurricane Dean did only about 300 million dollars in damage to Jamacia and about 184 million to Mexico. Hurricane Gilbert, by Contrast, did 4 billion dollars in damage to Jamacia and 1 billion to Mexico(and 1 billion more to St. Lucia, the costliest storm in the island's history). Therefore Jamacia and St. Lucia were Gilbert's culprits. Mexico could have been as well, but Hurricane Liza of 1976 killed 600-950 people in Mexico, about 2 or 3 times as many deaths as Gibert, and wasn't retired. Martinique and Guadeloupe, 2 French territories in the Carribean, suffered a combined 836 or so million dollars in damage from Dean. For a pair of islands with only a combined 800,000 or so people, that same storm would do about 19.75 billion dollars in damage in the U.S. state of Florida. And Dominica was hit with about 162 million dollars in damage from Dean. For an island nation with only 73,000 people, that same storm proportionally would do a whopping 683 billion dollars in damage in the United States. 'YOWCH!! 'If a storm did that much damage in the U.S, it would certainly become retired, being more than 8 times as destructive as Katrina was. You have to think about that before immediately looking at damages and saying what you think from that. It's not public outcry or emotional losses that matters, it's where it hits and how many nations it affects on it's path of destruction. If a category 2 hurricane does 4 billion in damage in the U.S. and a similar category 2 hurricane causes that same ammount of damage across the lesser antillies, the category 2 wrecking the lessers would have the better chance of retirement. Sorry if this went on too long, but I was just pointing out some facts... Ryan1000 19:07, June 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually, I disagree with you there. I think a Cat 2 hitting the US with $4 Billion in damages has a better chance of retirement than the same storm hitting the Carib. with the same amount of damage. The reason: Media impact. The more media impact a storm has, the more people wanting it gone, the better chance of it being retired. That's why I don't believe retirement can be quantified. You have to examine its psychological impact. For example: Igor versus Karl. For a 5.6 billion dollar storm (a number I think is an overestimate), Karl didn't have the same psychological impact as Igor, which was being labeled by the media as a 75-year storm, etc. And damage is not proportional by country. Remember, countries have different levels of infrastructure. A storm causing 1 billion dollars in damages and kills 100 in... let's say central Mexico might only cause 100-800 million in damages and kill 10 in the US. Same goes with those Caribbean islands. Now, with the climate stuff. Yes, I believe this will be a neutral season, but Nina effects will last much, much longer. This season will be an active season. SST's are still relatively warm, shear should be down, and other factors which help tropical cyclone development will be there. No, not as much as last year, but will still be above average. Now, I said the Gulf of Guinea is undergoing the cold anomaly, which enhances the possibility of a very active Cape Verde season. A very active Cape Verde season, and other climatic features, such as that cold SST anomaly tongue east of Florida (which has usually been around when there's an active US landfall season), I believe that there is an increased chance for retirement from the Caribbean and the US coastline. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 04:37, June 25, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">No, retirement is all based on whether or not a country requests the name to be removed. I'm saying that if a hurricane tears apart the Caribbean, there are tons of small countries that can request the name to be removed, vs a 4 billion dollar U.S. storm, if the U.S. doesn't request it, see it again 6 years later. If a hurricane damages more countries, then there are tons of countries that can request it. That explains why Dean was retired despite causing less damage, than, say Alex of last year. If a hurricane heavily damages just one country(like Karl of last year), then it's all up to them as to whether or not they'll retire it. Second off, the United states has tons of things going on at the same time. A 4 billion dollar storm probrably won't be as well-known in the entire U.S. as a whole, wheras a storm like Katrina would be. Who cares about what the media says? If the government doesn't request it, then the name will be reused, no matter what anyone says after that. Hurricanes Ike and Gustav of 2008 were overshadowed by the election news in the U.S, and in the case of them, CUBA was the first country to request both Ike and Gustav. I don't know whether or not the United States made a retirement case on either hurricane, but I'm pretty sure we had one on Ike. Gustav was feared by the media to be a repeat of Katrina when it was a category 4 in the Caribbean, but in the end, when they did go down to New Orleans, they said "oh, it wasn't that bad after all". Gustav did not cause a wide scope of problems in the entire United States as a whole, and the damage wasn't that bad in the U.S. nor the death toll too terribbly high. It may have been worse than Juan of 1985 but not by much. The Election news made Gustav seem like an afterthought in the U.S. However, Gustav was described as the worst hurricane to hit Cuba in 50 years. It was also the 3rd costliest hurricane in that nation's history, behind Michelle of 2001 and Ike later in 2008. Even though he might have been overshadowed, I don't truly know if we had a case on him. If Gustav did not hit Cuba or Haiti, I HIGHLY doubt we would have requested him for retirement. You have to look at how many countries are affected and the impact it caused in those countries as a whole before you immediately consider media as everything. One more thing - if media plays an important role in retirement, why were Noel of 2007 and Alma of 2008 retired? I hardly remember either storm getting a peep in the news, even in the places they hit, but both of them were retired. Explain that if you think Media is everything. Media doesn't play the role, the retirement case from a country does. All the time. Media doesn't exactly reflect that. I'm saying that smaller countries in the Caribbean and Central America have a better chance of requesting hurricane names because they often need help from other countries when hurricanes hit. The United States and Mexico usually do not. We sent a trainload of aid to Central America after Hurricane Mitch of 1998 tore apart the area, mostly Honduras and Nicaragua. Every country in Central America suffered some extent of damage from Mitch, but a few places like Costa Rica and Panama weren't hit very hard at all(and didn't request him for that reason), wheras other countries like Honduras, were just devastated from Mitch. The President of Honduras claimed Mitch destroyed 50 years of progress in their country. Just because the media pays attention to a hurricane doesn't mean the country affected will request it be removed. It depends on how much destruction and impact it did to the entire country as a whole. If no country sent aid to St. Lucia or Jamacia after Hurricane Gilbert kicked the shit out of both countries in 1988, then they would be very upset, and very sad because it would take forever to clean up. The United States is one of the biggest political and economical engines in the world, and a 4 billion dollar hurricane would not warrant retirement as easily as the Caribbean or Central America because, despite the media attention it may recieve, it won't distrupt the entire U.S. as a whole. Smaller Caribbean nations or countries in Central America have a better chance of retiring names because they can't handle catastrophic hurricanes as easily as the U.S. or Mexico can, like they retired Tomas of last year or Dean/Felix of 2007.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">As of now, on a worldwide standard, I think the storm with the highest chance of retirement(and will likely have the highest chance of retirement in the entire worldwide season) is Yasi of the South Pacific. It was the costliest storm in Australia's history, and even though it hit more than 4 months ago, I bet that the people in Queensland still think of Yasi's damages every now and then. Not exactly the media, but just the people of Queensland as a whole. Australia can't handle storms like Yasi so easily. Yasi also distrupted the entire country of Australia as a whole, not just the area hit. Ryan1000 17:03, June 25, 2011 (UTC)

As a side note, to be honest, we should really just wait until the season goes into progress and see what happens. We can never gurantee we will have a bad season for the United States even in La Nina events; last year and 2007 are examples. It's just that the main point I was making might have been missed... I was just saying, when it comes to retired names, there ARE exeptions to the "Particularly damaging or particularly deadly" rule, and there ARE exeptions to the "Media attention and public reaction" rule. There NEVER has been(and never will be) an exeption to the "country requests it" rule. We will have to wait and see what mother nature throws at us this season. Ryan1000 21:41, June 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * 1 Um, there is an exception to that rule: Hurricane Daniel 06 was requested by Hawaii but "the WMO did not approve the request". #2: Many people talk of Gustav and Katrina in the same sentence. I swear we would have retired Gustav if it did not hit Cuba or whatever else is there. #3. Yes, you can never guarantee bad US seasons, but there are seasons (like this year) which have increased chances of one, and for this year, it seems like there is a highly increased chance of one. #4: Are you kidding me? Gustav wasn't that bad??? It may have been overshadowed by Ike, and it may not have been as others, but heck it caused more damage than Isabel. #5: Mitch was a no-brainier. It had to be retired. #6 Alma was different. It had low death toll and damage, yet by some weird reason it was retired. #7 Where the heck do you get these "requests for retirement stuff." I would love to see them. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:35, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * You didn't read what I said. The WMO can't retire a name unless a country requests the removal of the name. The Hawaian islands aren't a country, the United States is. The WMO has never turned down the request of a country, but they have for "groups of people". There's quite a difference, I'm afraid. Also, why was Karl not retired last year, if it caused more damage to Mexico than Gustav did to the U.S? If that storm caused 5.6 billion dollars in damage to Mexico, why wasn't it retired? Is Karl defined as "not bad" in your book, just because it wasnt retired despite the damage? I said a country must request the name be removed to retire it. In the case of Alma(I should have explained this earlier), the government of Costa Rica described Alma as one of the worst storms in their history and they requested her to be retired for that reason even though it might have not been that destructive by your POV. I personally think the reasoning behind Alma's retirement was because the name means soul in Spanish. Noel of 2007 was much less destructive than, say Gordon of 1994, but France requested Noel to be retired because the name means "Christmas" in French. Therefore the name was inappropriate by their language and he really can't be taken as an excuse to any other non-retiree. Adolph of 2001 did nothing and Israel was never used, due to political connections with Adolf Hitler and the country of Israel. In the case of Alma and Noel, they didn't get "public reaction", they were retired due to requests from nations, so media attention doesn't play everything per that. A couple of other EPac retirements like Adele of 1970, Fico of 1978, Knut of 1987, and Fefa of 1991 were requested to be retired by other countries due to the inappropriate use of the name in another language, or if those storms followed the naming of specific places, ect, rather than specific impact. The United States did not make a retirement case on Fico or Fefa due to their impact on Hawaii; I think the name means something inappropriate in French or Spanish, but I can't really tell to be honest. However, if a country requests the name be retired, then the WMO will approve of it, no matter what. The United States government did not request Daniel to be retired. That's why it was not retired. Not exactly from "groups of people", but from entire countries as a whole. Media does not play the role; a country's retirement case does. Klaus of 1990 was retired at the request from the government of France, and it didn't get sh!t's worth of media attention, nor may you think the impact was that bad. Ioke of 2006's PHS wasn't retired due to it's impact on Wake Island or Johnston Atoll, but because the name had no true Hawaian Meaning, and shouldn't have been on the list in the first place. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center had changed a lot of names in 2006, many of which should have been a different storm name or something. Paka was "retired" at the request of our government, due to the damage on Guam. Also, for example, the name Dalila was used as "Dalilia" in 1983 and 1989, and then reverted to Dalila again in 1995, 2001, and 2007. There can be changes made to the name list if a name was improper(but not "retired"), or if like Adolph and Israel, for political reasons. These things aren't mentioned in Wikipedia, but we don't incriminate specific things like that on Wikipedia or on other sources stating retirement. For example, the Wikipedia article on Noel says it was retired due to the damage and deaths, not because the name means Christmas in French, because that would be offensive to readers there. Yes U.S. hurricanes often do become retired, but I do think our retirement standards should become stricter because we get hit with hurricanes all the time. look how many names Australia had retired, for example. The NHC's definition of retired names is here:
 * "The only time that there is a change in the naming lists is if one or more hurricanes throughout the course of a season is so deadly or so costly that future use of the name on another storm would be inappropriate due to reasons of sensitivity. If that happens, then at an annual meeting held by the WMO known as the Regional Association Hurricane Committee(called primarily to discuss many other issues), the offending name is stricken from the list and a new name is then selected to replace it" Where in that definition of retired names is media attention or public reaction mentioned? No part. Period. It's all up to a country as to whether or not the future use of the name would be inappropriate. Yes there may be some retirements or non-retirements that may be a mystery, but if a country does or does not request it be retired, there is nothing the media or anyone can do about it. Ryan1000 01:45, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Then what the heck is your point? The main purpose of retirement is to get rid of a name to provide closure to the victims and not to offend them. And why would they want to do that? Because they were severely harmed by the storm. A good way to judge that? By what the media says or does. A lot of the stuff you listed were the technical retirements or "non-impact retirements". In my book, those don't really count. Yes, they're retired, but not "retired". And after Karl, I looked long and hard for some reaction from the people in Mexico. I didn't get anything substantial from the people that would make it qualified for retirement. It didn't feel like it deserved to be retired. Gustav in the other hand was portrayed as destructive, but not as destructive as Katrina. And I have said that Karl's damage figure seems to be way too much. If I were to make a guess, I'd only put it at 1-2 Billion, at most. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:56, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NHC bill on Karl says it did only 206 million dollars, but I've never trusted the NHC when it comes to damages or deaths from hurricanes. I leave that up to the media, but initial reports published by them are often too high... Do you think Agatha of last year didn't deserve to be retired? Or any other storms in the past like Liza of 1976 in Mexico? The media does not retire names; the government does, and the media attention of a storm does not directly correlate with the government's retirement decision. Sometimes they do, but not always, as I've mentioned above. Yes storm names are retired by the requests of countries, not depending on what the media says to the WMO. I think the media was kind of stupid to look so much in New Orleans after Gustav when the majority of the destruction and deaths from Gustav were further down the coast in New Iberia and Cocodrie where it made landfall, or from inland flooding in Baton Rouge. Same thing with Dean in 2007; the media said "it missed Cancun, so we dodged the bullet", but the majority of Dean's destruction in Mexico was further down the coast in Chentumal and Costa Maya, not Cancun. That's why Gustav's retirement could be doubted, because the media wasn't really giving everyone the full picture on his destruction in the U.S. What i'm saying is the chances of a storm to be retired depend on how much destruction it causes to the entire country's economy as a whole, ect. The damage on Karl was likely overestimated, but the reason why Mexico decided not to retire him is because he didn't cause a large ammount of problems in the entire country of Mexico as a whole. Another storm, Kenna of 2002, did. Hurricane Juan of 1985 caused 2.8 billion in damage in the U.S. and wasn't retired because that damage was largely in the area it hit in Louisiana and not widespread across the entire U.S. as a whole. Same thing goes with Alberto of 1994. Over half a billion in damage, but wasn't retired, because it was too localized and not widespread. The media can pay attention to hurricanes a lot, but if the damage caused by that storm isn't widespread enough then it likely won't be retired. A 4 billion dollar U.S. storm may get lots of media attention and still not be retired. It's not like the U.S. will retire every 2.5+ billion dollar name from now on. It's not that i'm saying our country all of a sudden doesn't want to retire names, but because hurricanes hit the U.S. and Mexico all the time(we just got really lucky in the past 6 years, aside from Gustav and Ike), our stakes for retirement have gotten higher. I'm not really living in the past so much. Unless a hurricane causes a wide scope of problems in an entire country as a whole, it won't be retired. Karl and Alex are examples of such. They were very destructive for Mexico, there is no doubt, but neither of them were well-known in areas outside of Veracruz and Monterrey, or in all of Mexico as a whole. Same thing in the U.S. A 4 billion dollar hurricane in Florida nowadays may become well-known there, but will it in the entire country? No. Florida, let alone the United States, have gotten hit with so many other hurricanes worse than 4 billion in damage in the past that it likely will just become an afterthought. It doesn't matter if the media pays a lot of attention to the storm, what matters is if people will consider it bad enough in the entire country. I personally wouldn't think of it as that bad for the ENTIRE United States. Same with Mexico. We aren't going to request every single multi-billion dollar storm from now on. You have to stop living in the past. As I said earlier, the United States is one of the biggest political and economical engines in the world. A 4 billion dollar U.S. storm won't knock down every single domino in our entire country. We have tons of other things to worry about in the U.S. than some hurricane causing some billion dollars in damage. We have tornadoes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires, and other things as a whole to worry about than just hurricanes. If we get a storm like Ike or Andrew, that's a completly different story, but as of now, this discussion is already gotten way out of hand. We can never, and I repeat never, be able to accurately forecast how many retired names or bad hurricanes we will have in a season. Period. Last year is a great, if not the best, example. We were in a La Nina event last year, and out of the 12 hurricanes that formed in 2010, NONE of them crossed U.S. soil at hurricane force. For all we know, the Bermuda High may place itself over the same position it did last year in the heart of this season and we may get yet another season without U.S. landfalls. You have absolutely no idea how bad a season we will get. So I suggest we wait until September, and see what happens to the tropics. Until then, I'm leaving here. Ryan1000 05:06, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * We had this same debate on IRC whether Javiers death/damage was reliable or not. We do not now for a 100% sure that this season will be active, what if the SST's in the EPAC suddenly warming and cause a weak El Nino? What of the ITCZ remains more north then normal and all the waves die? What if a trough sit off the US East Coast, and re-curves the storms out to sea? There are a lot of possibilities. I don't think we'll have too much damage this year, but IMO we will have a landfalling hurricane or two that causes a couple billion in damage too the US. Not as bad as 2008 though. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  15:42, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * We may never know. I was just arguing with Darren as to how storm names become retired. Darren's thinks the media retires storm names. He thinks the media is everything, and I think that it's all up to a country based on retirement. As I mentioned above, Emily of 2005 got tons of media coverage and lots of people know of her, but she wasn't retired. Noel of 2007 and Alma of 2008 were both retired and I don't think anyone would likely know of either storm. Those two storms fell off of the media's radar, didn't get a peep in the news, and both still became retired. The WMO will not(and cannot) retire a storm name unless one or more countries request the name be retired. Who cares if the storm was well-known? If a storm doesn't cause a wide scope of problems for the entire countrie(s) affected as a whole, then the country affected will not retire it, regardless of how much attention the media gave it, or how much damage it caused/how many people it killed. Ryan1000 18:36, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Personally, I think Noel was going to be retired no matter what. Even if the storm was like Bonnie (2010). Even if it only caused $100 in damage, the WMO could not disagree that the storm didn't do anything, so they would have to retire it. There is no way I would ever want to hear "Hurricane Noël is coming!", itès just horrifying. It's just so..wrong. I could imagine just how bad it would be if it was a category 5 storm heading for a French island. Also shouldn't we make a "World activity section -continued"? This section is getting rather long. Yqt1001 18:51, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Can everyone her please indent their posts? It would be much easier to read. Anyway, Retirements are NOT Done by media attention. If it did, why didn't John 06, Flossie 07, and Bill 09 get retired? They did not do much (except for John, but that still did not get retired). Atletta 82 did not get retired because it did not impact an entire countries, same with Javier 98. Despite its devastation to Baja California, Jimena 09 did not affect its enitre country. Nor did Karl and Alex. I can go on and on. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:17, June 26, 2011 (UTC)

Worldwide activity discussion (continued)
Just so we can hit the edit button easier... @Yqt, I think France might have also requested Noel due to it's(precursor) impact on Martinique. They are pretty generous with retirements as they did with Klaus of 1990, and Dean of 2007, which also hit Guadeloupe. It was likely retired by them due to the meaning of the name in French, Christmas. The impacts in Martinique also may have led to retirement, but Paul of 1982 devastated Guatemala and El Salvador as a precursor wave, but it's impacts on land as a tropical cyclone were much less severe. Alma of 2008 was requested to be retired by Costa Rica, with them describing it as a disaster without parallel in their nation's history. However, I still think the reasoning behind it's retirement may have been because it was inappropriate like Noel. If the media said "Tropical Storm Soul hits Florida", we would be kind of offended(Alma means Soul in spanish; see this link), and we would want the name to be removed due to it's offensive use. Same thing with Adolph of 2001 and Israel(which wasn't used) due to political connections with the country of Israel and Adolf Hitler and Germany. Media attention doesn't play the role, the retirement case of a country does. If a country(ies) requests the removal of a name(s), the WMO will accordingly retire them, regardless of how much impact they cause, if any. Ryan1000 19:36, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I never said media retires names! But, it's a damn good barometer if a storm is gonna get retired. The media has a great impact on everything. It influences elections, the economy, and yes, retirements. The more reports there are that there was great suffering, the higher the chance a country will request it to be retired. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 19:56, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * 1 more thing. Yes, we cannot predict retirements accurately, we can never predict damages, but we can predict when there is a higher chance of having retirements and higher damages. And btw, we're already in June. If we somehow do rapidly transition to El Nino, it won't have much effect, as overall climatic conditions take a while to change. Now, SST's are very conductive for the Atlantic. Shear is lower than average even though it's ENSO-neutral. You can't ignore facts! This season has a high chance of above-average activity. And I hate to say it, even though we got a reprieve last year, that there is also a high chance for highly destructive storms. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:02, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Darren, chill out. We all have different opinions on retirement. Some people think it's all about damage, others think it's all about deaths. You think it's the media, and I look at the ammount of problems the storm causes in the entire country as a whole. That's probrably the best way to determine a storm's chances of retirement. Again, let me pull up the example of a 4 billion dollar storm that tears up the Caribbean vs a 4 billion dollar storm that hits the U.S. 4 billion dollars in damage would be a giant number for any caribbean island and would be a record for any nation except Jamacia and Cuba, and would still be 2nd highest up on the list for those countries, let alone, a 4 billion dollar Caribbean storm would severely distrupt the economies of those small island nations. Would a 4 billion dollar U.S. storm get lots of media attention? Probrably, but will it distrupt the entire U.S. economy as a whole? Probrably not. I think we can handle a storm of that magnitude. Then again, it may depend on how widespread that is. Hurricane Bonnie of 1998 vs Hurricane Lili of 2002. Both caused a billion in damage and got tons of media attention, but guess who got retired? Hurricane Lili caused a large ammount of problems in the entire U.S. as a whole, wheras Bonnie was a storm with localized destruction in North Carolina. It takes quite a storm to distrupt our entire economy as a whole(ex. Ike of 2008, nearly 30 billion U.S. damage), but a 4 billion dollar storm probrably won't distrupt our entire country as a whole, but rather more localized areas. It depends, and we'll have to wait and see. If you would like to talk about anything else, go ahead. Ryan1000 20:29, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Darren, I never said that there is a high chance of my what if's occurring, but they are possible. I do think the ATL will see a fairly active season, just not as bad as 2008, that's all. Anyway, the EPAC looks like it will have an decent season between 12-17 storms most likely.YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  20:53, June 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I have to agree with Darren here, the signs are pointing for an active US landfall year, and you can't go against the odds for too long. Isn't the odds of 1 major hurricane landfall in the US at like 76%? That's pretty high if you ask me. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we saw 4-5 major hurricane landfalls this year (all over the basin). Yqt1001 21:04, June 26, 2011 (UTC)