Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season/October-November

October
It's now the start of October by UTC. We still have the potential to see activity later this month, in particular the northwest Caribbean should be watched, in the event we get a late-season strong storm there. Ryan1000 04:02, October 1, 2018 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Another AOI, south of the Azores and already an invest, currently at 20/30. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     23:57, October 06, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/30 now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:03, October 07, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 10/10.YellowSkarmory (talk) 23:27, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/0. Nadine might come from the Cape Verde AOI. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:36, October 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dead and off the TWO.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     18:23, October 08, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cabo Verde
Hopefully I did this right. Looks like it's at 20/30 right now, south of Cabo Verde. Don't think it's an invest.YellowSkarmory (talk) 23:27, October 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Guess this would become Nadine instead of 92L. Hopefully not as destructive as the other Cape Verde-type hurricanes. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:17, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

Conditions are semi-decent for development in the near-future, but are expected to become unfavorable near the eastern Caribbean. It's possible that waves like this could become something if they reach the EPac down the road though. Conditions are favorable enough for one or two more good storms to form over there after Sergio. Ryan1000 08:57, October 8, 2018 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Now an invest, and up to 50/60. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:23, October 08, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/80. We could see Nadine here.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     23:49, October 08, 2018 (UTC)


 * This is developing in a similar region to where Nadine's 2012 incarnation first developed. However, this one should be much shorter lived due to strong upper-level winds by late week. Probably going to be a failure name-stealer... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:55, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen
And it is now a TD. This will [sadly (?)] become Nadine. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:13, October 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nadine
And it stole Nadine. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:37, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's actually forecast to reach 50 mph, so maybe it could be a stronger tropical storm rather than just a pathetic name stealer. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:55, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * With Nadine being named, 2018 has 3 active named storm this late in the calendar year since from what I've heard, 1950. 2018 is giving us more surprises now with Nadine being a rare October MDR storm.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     21:13, October 09, 2018 (UTC)

45 mph/1003 mb.YellowSkarmory (talk) 02:45, October 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I think the folks in Florida would gladly trade storms right now. Beatissima (talk) 03:56, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

This storm is a disgraceful decendant of the 2012 Nadine, a near-record long-lived storm. Only thing it gets credit for is the fact it formed in the MDR in October, but still, it's gonna be a short-lived fishie. Ryan1000 03:58, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Guess she's being polite and doesn't want to steal Leslie's thunder. Beatissima (talk) 04:12, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Or maybe, Nadine passed the crown to Leslie this time. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:35, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Might not be such a disgrace. Shorter-lived than last time, almost certainly, but the 12z ATCF brings Nadine up to 55 kts/997 mbar, an intensity that wasn't even in the NHC forecast until the 5am advisory. Could we potentially end up with three simultaneously active Atlantic hurricanes in October? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:55, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Hmm...seems Nadine is putting on a better show than I thought. However, shear seems to be taking a toll on Nadine lately and a lot of the convection seems displaced east of the center now. If this becomes a hurricane...looks like I may eat my words, and that would make Nadine one of only a small handful of hurricanes in the open tropical Atlantic during October, along with Tomas of 2010 and Kate of 2003, to name a few. Ryan1000 20:56, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * The headline of the latest advisory is something along the lines of "Nadine losing organization and expected to weaken," but hey, she put in a good effort. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:55, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * I am kinda hoping that Nadine will merge with Leslie this time, but that will not happen (most likely). Not bad for a storm that was expected to remain weak though; like what everyone above said, Nadine defied expectations as she peaked at 65 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:19, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * I highly doubt such a merger is going to happen. Nadine exceeded our expectations and actually became a strong tropical storm. Nice job, Nadine. It has weakened to 60 mph and shear will get the best of Nadine in the next few days, making it the opposite of its previous incarnation longevity-wise. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:11, October 11, 2018 (UTC)

And she's gone. See you in 2024, Nadine. Beatissima (talk) 02:38, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Nadine
"No more Nadine" sayeth the NHC, lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:51, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Western Caribbean Sea/North of Panama II
So this just showed up behind Michael. 0/20 for now. Beatissima (talk) 21:29, October 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/30 now.YellowSkarmory (talk) 02:50, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Beatissima (talk) 05:40, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope future Oscar won't be as bad as Michael. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:34, October 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:08, October 10, 2018 (UTC)

Still 0/50, but may only peak as a TD as it is expected to move to the west towards Belize. Oscar may have to wait. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:16, October 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * Unless it is a weak name-stealer like Hanna '14 or even enters the Bay of Campeche in the long term. At least this probably won't be a re-Michael, but Mexico and Central America should still watch out. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:14, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/40. I hope this system won't bring much damage to Central America. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:21, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * And down to 0/30. Beatissima (talk) 01:56, October 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it completely went bust. 0/0 now. This will be off the TWO soon and Oscar will wait. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:03, October 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. Send Help Please  (talk) 03:02, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
An AOI appears, just as the Atlantic seems to finally die. 10/10, and probably won't be much. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     02:06, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep it's not going to become much. Oscar will have to wait. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:12, October 14, 2018 (UTC)

Near 0/near 0 now. YellowSkarmory (talk) 01:01, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it is completely gone [for more than 12 hours] now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:15, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: East of Nicaragua
This just popped up, 10/20 currently. YellowSkarmory (talk) 21:44, October 14, 2018 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Looks like it's invested now as 94L. Up to 20/20. YellowSkarmory (talk) 01:00, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/30 now. Beatissima (talk) 05:33, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

40/40, and the NHC says this could be a tropical depression before moving ashore in Central America tomorrow night. If it doesn't develop in the Caribbean this could become something in the EPac, though I'm not sure if this'll be linked to, or merge with, the AOI south of Mexico that's behind Tara right now that's at 0/70. Ryan1000 12:34, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * This system reminds me of TD 16 from 2008. I doubt it will become much more than a depression due to land interaction (at most a weak name-stealing Oscar), and it also looks like it could cause quite a bit of flooding problems down in Central America. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:55, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Models are indicating a crossover of this invest from the ATL to the EPAC and forms in that basin, and giving us Xavier if the 0/80 AOI and the 10/20 AOI in the EPAC gets named.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     01:59, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 0/0, and its southern part is expected to develop into (at least) a TD in the EPac. Not sure whether or not it will retain the 94L designation though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:12, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

Off the TWO. The North Atlantic basin has gone to sleep for now. Beatissima (talk) 23:20, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: ENE of the northern Leeward Islands
Remember the Atlantic basin? 0/20 for now. Beatissima (talk) 23:43, October 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40. Beatissima (talk) 00:26, October 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * "A tropical or subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles" (emphasis mine). I swear, if we get a seventh subtropical system from this... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:57, October 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * den di Atlantic Ocean popping dem pills an snorting ket an coke like neva before. oscar sure wi feel di effects of drugs. --Next time we meet, I&#39;m gonna land a thousand strikes on that face of yours. (talk) 01:07, October 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/50 now. We could have Oscar this weekend. Beatissima (talk) 06:19, October 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/60 Beatissima (talk) 16:07, October 24, 2018 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested at 40/70. Beatissima (talk) 02:27, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here comes Oscar, and possibly yet another subtropical storm. Like Dylan said above, this could be the seventh subtropical system of the season, further extending the record. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:00, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 2018 made the record and intends to keep it. 60/80 now. Looks like this could become yet another threat for the Southeastern US. Beatissima (talk) 05:44, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/90 90/90 now. Beatissima (talk) 21:30, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * I bet this will be a (sub)tropical depression when I wake up in the morning. Oscar the Grouch is on his way. BTW models on Tropical Tidbits seem to curve it back to the northeast after the initial westward motion, which should mean that this won't be a U.S. threat. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:36, October 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Any time now! Beatissima (talk) 00:12, October 27, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Oscar
45/1005. The 2018 Subtropical Gang gains a new member. Send Help Please (talk) 03:24, October 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Likely to be a fishspinner, but it's still...interesting, to see yet another subtropical storm form in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 06:47, October 27, 2018 (UTC)

50/998. Forecast to be a hurricane now, but still recurve later on. Ryan1000 10:25, October 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 60 mph / 995 mbar, still forecast to reach 80 mph as a peak. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 15:36, October 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * The record 7th subtropical storm is here! Hopefully Oscar will try its best since it isn't a land threat. Expected to become tropical by tomorrow morning. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:49, October 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * and the oscar goes to... --¡OIᗡ &#39;ƎW S∀M ⊥I (talk) 01:04, October 28, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Oscar
Now transitioned to a full tropical storm and expected to curve towards the subtropics without any threat to land (maybe with the exception of Bermuda from rip currents)  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     03:11, October 28, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Oscar
Oscar up to a hurricane on Best Track. Methinks category 2 peak. user:StormTracker33 19:41 UTC
 * NHC believes that too, 100 mph to be exact. Though it'll recurve in a day or two, and rapidly pick up speed while doing so. Ryan1000 21:05, October 28, 2018 (UTC)

Didn’t expect a hurricane out of Oscar, nice to see him become one. Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 06:09, October 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like Oscar could be a threat to Ireland and the U.K. while post-tropical. Beatissima (talk) 15:49, October 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 80 kts/978 mbar with a forecast peak of 90 kts. I hope Oscar manages a peak of 105-110 kts; we haven't had a storm peak as a Category 3 all season in the NHEM east of the dateline (pending post-analysis of Fabio and Helene), not one peak above 100 kts but below 115 kts since Darby and Gaston in 2016, and not one peak at exactly 110 kts since Danny and Linda in 2015.
 * (Plus, after the carnage wrought by Florence and Michael, it would be a refreshing change of pace for this season to produce a major that stays out to sea.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:53, October 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Category 2 now with 100 mph winds and a 970 mbar pressure per ATCF.IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 01:34, October 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Official now on NHC. Oscar also seems to be developing what I believe is a pinhole eye.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:45, October 30, 2018 (UTC)

<I so badly want Oscar to manage that 10kt strengthening. In a year with record subtropical storm numbers, I want to see another historic first: the first subtropical storm to become a major hurricane. Jake52 (talk) 03:44, October 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * That'd be neat to see. I expected Oscar to strengthen to a 2, but I didn't expect this to have a shot at major hurricane intensity until now, also it would be (well, it already has been, but still) a strong recovery from Oscar's previous epic fail incarnation in early October 2012. Ryan1000 05:05, October 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Didn't really expect to see a C2 out of Oscar... perhaps a major is not out of the picture? It has about 12 hours to strengthen a little more. Truly makes up for its 2012 fail incarnation. C'mon Oscar! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:23, October 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * No major, sadly. Oscar has weakened to a Category 1 as of the latest advisory, and never made it to Cat 3. 85 mph/979 mbars. Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 20:51, October 30, 2018 (UTC)

Seems that Fabio and John finally have an Atlantic brother in Oscar. Anyway, I hope Oscar won't be Leslie 2.0. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:29, October 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Friendly reminder that, as much as we all wanted a major from Oscar, he was never forecast to strengthen beyond 90 kts. Anyway, Happy Halloween from the NHC: "...OSCAR DOING A QUICK COSTUME CHANGE INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW..." --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:36, October 31, 2018 (UTC)


 * I was going to post that quote from the NHC here as soon as I saw it. No need to though, since you already did. :P Leeboy100 Happy Halloween. 17:17, October 31, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Oscar
Last NHC advisory issued. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:37, October 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Heh, I saw the "Costume change" wording when I took a peak at NHC earlier. 😝 NHC must want to celebrate Halloween as well! Now it's a powerful, still hurricane-strength extratropical low. Goodbye Oscar. Luckily it was a fishspinner. I wonder what November will have in store for the Atlantic? ~  Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  💀👻  03:42, November 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ok, so which one of you people put the "costume change" remark on the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Wikipedia page? ;) Beatissima (talk) 00:51, November 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Someone named "CooperScience", see here. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:10, November 3, 2018 (UTC)

November
Welcome to November in the Atlantic! As the season takes its last breath, I'm hoping maybe we can get Patty or even Rafael before the year concludes. Maybe even an 8th subtropical storm... lol ~  Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  💀👻  03:42, November 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * This year outperformed expectations for what was, at first, likely to be near to below-average at first due to a hindering El Nino event, with an above-average ACE and two very notable storms. Still, it doesn't look like we'll get much through the rest of the season, maybe 1 more storm but that'll likely be it. Ryan1000 09:53, November 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * I kind of hope we get to R next year, because the R name is Rebekah, and my name is Rebecca :) Beatissima (talk) 14:25, November 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Honestly, as unlikely as it probably is at this point, I hope we make it to Sara. It's the name of an old friend of mine from high school. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:15, November 2, 2018 (UTC)

The Atlantic sure is quiet now. I bet we'll get at least a TS Patty before the season's official end. Beatissima (talk) 00:17, November 9, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: East of Lesser Antilles
Not expected to do much in the short term, but might join the Subtropical Gang next week. Send Help Please (talk) 05:51, November 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Interestingly, it's currently in the MDR. November MDR system anyone? YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:00, November 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actually, it won't be until the middle of next week that it might develop. They do mention "subtropical" in the outlook, could we see YET another subtropical storm? Wow, I thought I was joking when I said "maybe even an 8th subtropical storm" above. The Atlantic just doesn't want to quit with the subtropical madness. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:12, November 10, 2018 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
The chance of formation within 5 days is increasing. 20/70 now. This does remind me a bit of Kate '15. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     18:49, November 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's up to 30/70 now. The development region includes the MDR so we still could see a November MDR system. YellowSkarmory (talk) 04:54, November 12, 2018 (UTC)

Went to check out the model runs on tropical tidbits, and for some reason the only major model that develops this is the GFS, albeit not too strongly and recurves this out to sea eventually. The Euro doesn't see any development at all and the HWRF somehow takes this south into the Caribbean sea, near Hispaniola and Jamaica. Maybe the latter two are having a hard time catching onto this invest? It's almost mid-November and it's unusual to see a storm taking a track like this at this late point in the season. Hopefully it does recurve before making a landfall on Florida's east coast. Ryan1000 09:39, November 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 50/90. Patty is on the way, it seems... Ryan1000 16:31, November 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 40/60. "[E]nvironmental conditions may not become as conducive as previously anticipated. Therefore, the potential for this system to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone has decreased." Beatissima (talk) 01:09, November 13, 2018 (UTC)

I really hope this doesn't bust...but a front is coming, and if this doesn't develop when it reaches a point north of the Bahamas it'll die out. Interestingly, the 2012 Patty also developed just north of the Bahamas as a minimal tropical storm, but it was also torn apart by shear from a front. Maybe this could repeat that. Ryan1000 04:58, November 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 30/40... got a bit surprised when I saw that it went down in the percentages, I really wanted to see it become Patty 🙁 If it does somehow develop from here on out, I hope it does repeat its 2012 predecessor in that fashion. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:57, November 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Don't you dare bust 96L or I'll kill your already dead clouds. (okay I don't really want more damage from storms but I also want more storms) YellowSkarmory (talk) 06:09, November 13, 2018 (UTC)

Down further to 20/30, also forecast to move over Hispaniola now. Maybe the HWRF and Euro weren't too far off in their conservative take on this storm earlier. It could still develop, but the odds are much less likely now. Ryan1000 16:23, November 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/20. Beatissima (talk) 22:26, November 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10. Beatissima (talk) 01:40, November 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, a bust. It is getting less likely Patty will come throughout the rest of the season. Although a possible very-late or post-season surprise should not be counted out. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:53, November 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Guess it's a good thing this one is going bust, since it's affecting land. Beatissima (talk) 03:52, November 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:16, November 15, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Northeast of the Central Bahamas
This one is not expected to develop. Beatissima (talk) 21:07, November 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, going to develop into absolutely nothing. Near 0/Near 0 on the TWO. I don't even know why they wrote this up. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:03, November 18, 2018 (UTC)
 * With the Atlantic being so quiet, I guess they're just bored out of their skulls. Beatissima (talk) 04:49, November 18, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: Off the Southeastern Coast of the United States
So this just came up. 0/20. It could become yet another subtropical system. Beatissima (talk) 00:51, November 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 30% for 5 days. Here comes Patty, but YET another subtropical storm (8th)! 🙄 ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:10, November 23, 2018 (UTC)

Went up to 10 for 2 days, but down to 20 for 5. Not sure if this will develop, but if it does, it'll probably be a short-lived fish. Ryan1000 10:25, November 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * Expected to be a hurricane-force extra-tropical cyclone now. Is Leslie, the Zombie Hurricane, rising yet again? Beatissima (talk) 05:28, November 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lol maybe. Now off the TWO, so no Patty here. I highly doubt we'll see Patty throughout the rest of the year, but you never know if a post-season surprise pops up. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:00, November 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * If I’m not mistaken, this one became Storm Diana. I think. Beatissima (talk) 17:46, November 27, 2018 (UTC)