Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season

Future Start
The CPC has just declared a weak La Niña. Models keep a La Niña through winter at least. Will we see another active season next year? Maybe its too early to make a call, but we'll surely see...182.58.75.119 04:32, November 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * GWO, which has predicted every season correct since 2009, has said that the season will be the most active and most dangerous since 2005, implying that this La Niña could last a while. T  G  My Birthday 12:01, November 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, I looked closely at their website and I saw "Only Organization That Predicted 2017 - Would Be Most Destructive and Dangerous Hurricane Season Since 2005." Pretty sure they mean 2017. I think 2018 predictions are going to be freely available on February 1, because it says on that website that "zone predictions" are coming that day. In the meantime, I'm going to go ahead and predict what this season could have in store. I believe 16-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-5 majors will occur. Another really active season is very possible and I hope it's not going to be a catastrophic season like 2017 was. ~  Steve 🦃   Happy  Thanksgiving!  👪  19:40, November 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm of the opinion that with the development of La Niña, another hyperactive season is on the way... my predictions are 18(±3) named storms, 11(±2) hurricanes, and 6(±2) major hurricanes. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:03, November 25, 2017 (UTC)

Also since the betting pools are already up I'll link them here. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:10, November 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Steve, originally there was a title you could click on called 2017-18 hurricane season predictions. Now it is renamed 2018-19 predictions because 2017 is 5 days away from ending. It originally read: "2017 AND 2018 WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AND DESTRUCTIVE SEASONS IN A DECADE", meaning that 2018 is going to be a re-2017 unfortunately. T  G  My Birthday 13:38, November 25, 2017 (UTC)

I think we are in for another active season. I hope it’s not destructive like this year. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that it will be. I think the 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons were just the Atlantic taking a nap. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:41, November 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Another hyperactive season is almost here, well, not really hyperactive but just active. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:56, November 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * There's a good possibility that 2018 will be another very active or even hyperactive season with extreme destruction. Hopefully it isn't, because 2017 had way too much devastation and many areas (particularly the Lesser Antilles and Texas) need a break. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:48, November 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this year does turn out to be very active, like it appears it will be as of now due to La Nina conditions, hopefully we don't see the kind of horrific devastation we saw from last year's season, particularly in major U.S. cities or territories. Like I mentioned in the summary of the last season, the only way we could see more damage in an AHS than last year is if a series of strong hurricanes struck other major U.S. cities; Miami, Tampa, and NYC are the only U.S. cities that could suffer more damage from a worst-case hurricane than what Harvey did to Houston, not to mention Irma's and Maria's historic impacts in the Caribbean and southwest Florida as well. Ryan1000 22:55, December 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Seasonal forecast by UCL's TSR (Not the Student Room) has been released: 15-7-3 is the forecast.  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 17:23, December 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Latest odds for La Niña are 26%, with 46% for neutral and 28% for El Niño. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:06, February 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * That means that we will going to have an average season this year. --70.190.21.73 02:38, February 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was a little iffy of another above-average season to be fair, but nonetheless I still predict some pretty powerful hurricanes coming. Who do you think will be the strongest storm this year? Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 03:02, February 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * I have a pretty bad feeling about the names Gordon, Helene, and Michael. I predict one of those will be the strongest of the year. For season totals, I now predict something like 16-8-4. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:55, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Given the current ENSO status and forecasts, we could see a slightly less active season to come, however as demonstrated by 2005 an above average season or even hyperactive season can't be ruled out, we'll have to see on the status on the AMO and the North Atlantic oscillation for the influence in activity later on as it gets closer to hurricane season. Not making my calls until mid-April. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:59, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * This season could end up being slightly less active than earlier forecast, the current projection is leaning neutral, with a slightly higher chance of La Nina than El Nino. 2011 had a similar outlook at this time of year as well, and it turned out to be tied for the 3rd most active year ever, but only Irene was notable that year. But it's too soon to tell whether this'll be an average or above average year. Ryan1000 07:07, February 14, 2018 (UTC)

-Removed predictions since they changed as of March '21st' 2018-


 * Indeed! I also am a bit worried about Gordon, Helene and Michael. I think those three will be top three in terms of strength. I agree wholly with what Steve said in terms of season totals.


 * What are your predictions?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:25, February 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow, my predictions aren't that detailed. :/ Mine are simply 18 TS, 11 HU, 6 MH. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:39, February 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * I say that there will be 16-19 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I'm gonna go further and say that Helene would be the most destructive hurricane of the season, while Michael would be the deadliest, especially with the death tolls of the previous two M-named hurricanes in this basin (official death toll from Maria may be somewhat undercounted) ArrDFe25 (talk) 20:04, February 20, 2018 (UTC)

GWO's preds released fam:  " What to Expect in 2018

  2018  GWO Prediction    16 named storms     8 hurricanes   4 major hurricanes    4 U.S.  Hurricane landfalls

                                                                                                                2 to 3 major impact United States Hurricanes"

ｕｒ ｍａｉ ｗａｉｆｕ ｄｅｓｕ ノ域囲真 04:56, February 27, 2018 (UTC) Scratch that. A guy named "Joe Bastardi" released his predictions. https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-prelim He is predicting: 11-15/6-7/1-3 due to the uncertainty of El Nino events. To be honest... due to the possibility of El Nino coming in autumn, I am now revising down my predictions to 14-6-3; I can see a similar set-up to 2006, but 2000's amount of storms. El Nino should be in full force next winter, and might dissipate come next year's season. I still believe Helene will be the strongest of this season, or maybe Gordon. The season, I believe, will see its best activity mid-September and before, with an early finish. ｕｒ ｍａｉ ｗａｉｆｕ ｄｅｓｕ ノ域囲真 22:54, March 21, 2018 (UTC)


 * TSR and CSU predictions will be out in a week. Those should be interesting given the uncertainty whether La Niña shall prevail, or if El Niño will take over, and if so, when. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:29, March 31, 2018 (UTC)


 * CSU predicts 14-7-3. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:40, April 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Pretty much the same as TSR's December predictions but with one less storm. -- Roy 25  16:35, April 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * TSR has predicted a below-average season, giving 12-6-2 as their forecast. Contrary to most of our predictions here. But there again that doesn't mean destructive storms won't occur... ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:21, April 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * NCSU released their forecasts, calling for an above-average season, with betwen 14-18 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-5 of those hurricanes becoming major hurricanes. -- Roy 25  00:39, April 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * TWC released their forecasts for the season, calling for a near average season, 13-6-2. -- Roy 25  01:42, April 25, 2018 (UTC)

With the season beginning tomorrow, I'm ready to make my predictions for the upcoming season, accounting in Alberto to this total. I predict 13-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes. It all rests on a potential El Nino developing, and it's very possible we could remain in neutral for the remainder of the season. Owen 20:09, May 31, 2018 (UTC)

The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun! -- Roy 25  00:24, June 1, 2018 (UTC)

Pre-Season (Jan–May)
Adding this here if 2018 decides to be the fourth consecutive year to feature a pre-season storm. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:05, April 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto has only about 1.5 months left for him to form before the start of the season. There is still time though. -- Roy 25  00:40, April 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * Its gonna happen in late May - Bluecaner, 14:44, April 18th, 2018
 * This model is showing a possibility of maybe a tropical depression, or near tropical depression 144 hours from now. Another pre-season storm? -- Roy 25  01:51, April 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * This model is showing a possibility of maybe a tropical depression, or near tropical depression 144 hours from now. Another pre-season storm? -- Roy 25  01:51, April 25, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Over Bahamas
First disturbance this year. Low chance, not expected to develop significantly. -- Roy 25  16:00, May 4, 2018 (UTC)

YaY!https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 first STWO of the year.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:10, May 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * The Atlantic awakens! Even if it is for basically nothing, its good (or not good, if this is going to be another 2017) to see the Atlantic back up and running. Send Help Please (talk) 19:32, May 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * It'd be more appropriate to call this an Area of Invest over the Bahamas, rather than the Caribbean. But in any instance, it's at near 0% for the next 2 and 5 days. Likely won't become much in the near future, if it becomes Alberto at all. Ryan1000 00:13, May 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * No successive STWOs. Lol. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:10, May 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * That was lame, but at least that was a sign saying the Atlantic has now started to be active for the year, like Send Help Please has said. -- Roy 25  16:14, May 5, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:GOM, SW of Florida
Another pre-season disturbance this year, 30% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, and 40% chance of developing in the next 5 days. -- Roy 25  19:59, May 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like shear is going down in the AOI's area... Send Help Please (talk) 19:34, May 14, 2018 (UTC)

Down to 20/30.No.1 Mobile (talk) 19:58, May 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Many of the models are also trending away from development (for this system, anyway). Perhaps lower shear won't matter for this disturbance. Send Help Please (talk) 20:18, May 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Although this storm had the potential to develop, I don't see it happen. Alberto will have to most likely wait atm. T  G  2 0 1 8 22:09, May 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Heading north to land, I don’t think that it won’t develop. It is nearing land and we are still in the preseason anyway. ---70.190.21.73 00:11, May 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Might still have a chance if it significantly organizes before landfall, but now I only see this becoming a TD at most. But we never know what tricks this AOI has in store for us - it could even pull off an Emily from last year or Jose '11. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, May 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to 10/10. --70.190.21.73 14:21, May 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 0/0. It’s definitely not going to develop. --70.190.21.73 14:22, May 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Off from the TWO. --70.190.21.73 14:24, May 17, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Near Central America
Already the third pre-season disturbance. 0/20 at the moment. -- Roy 25  12:47, May 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one is worth watching. The ECMWF (which I'm lending greater credibility to) has been bringing this over Louisiana as a strong TS for several runs. The GFS, on the other hand, has been flip flopping with this, but now moves a weak cyclone over Cuba and Florida. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:35, May 21, 2018 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
First Atlantic invest. Models does show this becoming a tropical depression or even Alberto. -- Roy 25  22:07, May 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 0/40. -- Roy 25  23:43, May 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * There’s a chance that it may develop in a few days or so. --70.190.21.73 00:02, May 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * If this becomes Alberto within the next week, it would be the second consecutive incarnation of Alberto to form before the official start of the hurricane season, as the 2012 Alberto also formed in May. It would also make 2018 the 4th consecutive AHS to start early, a feat only previosuly accomplished by 1951-1954. I believe I mentioned this with Arlene of last year, but still, it would be neat to see. Unfortunately, this could be a threat to the Gulf Coast, hopefully not too bad though. Ryan1000 13:22, May 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/50. -- Roy 25  23:27, May 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/60. Environment expected to be more favorable in the GoM for development. -- Roy 25  12:18, May 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * We may get a PTC with this sometime late this week as it heads northward towards the Florida panhandle. Ryan1000 15:14, May 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 10/70. Increasing chance of a tropical depression or even Alberto. -- Roy 25  23:14, May 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * We may get only a tropical depression but I won’t be surprised if that becomes Alberto. It can at most, become a tropical storm. --70.190.21.73 00:31, May 24, 2018 (UTC)

Now it's up to 40/80. Alberto is on his way sometime in the next few days, he'll probably be more or less a repeat of his 2006 and/or 1994 incarnations, which also formed in this area and moved north towards the Florida panhandle as a tropical storm. Ryan1000 12:13, May 24, 2018 (UTC)

Now 70/90,here comes alberto!No.1 Mobile (talk) 17:32, May 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * You beat me. But the real question is, will this be a repeat of PTC10, a depression or Alberto? -- Roy 25  17:34, May 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * I doubt it'll be a mere PTC, it's likely to become Alberto sometime tomorrow or this weekend. But it won't get very strong due to the time of year it is. Ryan1000 18:21, May 24, 2018 (UTC)

Alberto, please don't mistake the US for pizza. ｕｒ　ｍａｉ　ｗａｉｆｕ　ｄｅｓｕ　ノ域囲真 21:11, May 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * This could threaten the southeastern US as it is to strike it near Memorial Day. --70.190.21.73 00:35, May 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * The models seem to be in a general agreement with an eventual landfall on the north central gulf coast, but they're split on the intensity of Alberto-to-be when it reaches the Florida panhandle . The GFS and the relatively new HMON model predict this won't be much more than a moderate tropical storm when it reaches the panhandle, which would be a best-case scenario, but the ECMWF and HWRF both make it a hurricane when it reaches the area; in fact, some recent runs of the Euro model foresees the possibility of the trough outrunning the storm and a ridge building in to replace it, which would recurve this storm from north-northeast to west-northwest, towards the Alabama-Mississippi border, and as a strong category 1 or even category 2 hurricane. Elena also did that in 1985, but it struck much later in the season and was a strong major hurricane when it did so. If this becomes hurricane Alberto when it makes landfall, it would be the earliest hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. on record, and would be one of only a small handful of off-season landfalling hurricanes in the Atlantic, along with Alice in 1955. Ryan1000 03:15, May 25, 2018 (UTC)

Now 90/90, Alberto is coming and sparing no time in doing so. Based on the future soundings if the system, along with its current pressure, I don’t think our buddy will be a hurricane, thankfully. At most he will likely be a strong tropical storm. My prediction is that it curves a little more west then it is expected too. Hoping it’s intensity won’t feel the need to break records -Emmaelise401
 * (Edit conflict) Models does show this a strong TS or a borderline hurricane. Future-Alberto does pose a threat to the Gulf Coast. We may get a PTC sometime today. -- Roy 25  12:24, May 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Actually Roy, I am expecting a tropical depression at the end of the day, possibly this afternoon. It is a waiting game until he gets back over water. -Emmaelise401

Subtropical Storm Alberto
35 Knots/1005 mb - May the games begin! Welcome Alberto. -Emmaelise401
 * YESSS!!! Fourth year in the row to have a pre-season start! -- Roy 25  15:55, May 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Welcome Alberto to the pre-season! But, as it strikes the southeastern Gulf Coast, heavy rainfall is possible. --70.190.21.73 16:05, May 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * THE ATLANTIC AWAKENS (for real this time)! I do hope Alberto is nice to the Gulf Coast though. Send Help Please (talk) 16:50, May 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * The NHC showed that there’s a 10% chance that Alberto will have hurricane-force winds by the time it makes landfall. Xyklone (talk) 19:24, May 25, 2018 (UTC)

Current NHC forecast calls for 65 mph winds but all of the 12Z runs of the top models (GFS, Euro, AND HWRF) predict this will be a hurricane when it reaches the northern gulf coast (although the HWRF makes it a 978 mbar storm by then, which is about cat 2...I think that's a bit too aggressive). It probably won't get stronger than cat 1 if it does so. Also, although May storms aren't unheard of, they are rare in the GOM, only a few other May storms have reached the GOM in the past, Alma of 1970 being one example. Ryan1000 21:40, May 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also, Dr. Masters said in his latest blog post that the Euro and other models initially didn't predict a hurricane in their 0Z runs earlier today but they've upped the ante recently. He personally gave a 20% chance by then, but that may be conservative. Alberto's broad nature and hybrid characteristics are keeping it in check right now, although it's definitely not impossible it could reach 75 mph before making landfall as he slowly moves into a favorable environment. Ryan1000 22:13, May 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yay, a pre-season storm! 4th in a row, unbelievable! The formation just a week before June 1 means I win in the betting pools! =) However, and sorry if I sounded immature earlier (due to storm's threat to land)... This is looking like a major flood threat in the long run. Parts of Yucatan and Cuba are currently being pounded by Alberto, while the Gulf Coast (specifically around Alabama/Florida) will have their Memorial Day plans ruined by this storm. It could become a hurricane, but we shouldn't really hope for one due to the threat to the Gulf Coast. If it does, it would be the first "Hurricane Alberto" since 2000 and the 3rd one since 1982, and it would continue a pattern I noticed of it becoming a hurricane every third time (H, TS, TS, H, TS, TS, maybe H). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:22, May 26, 2018 (UTC)

Alberto is only slowly expected to strengthen today due to it's broad nature and some shear over the storm, but it is expected to transition into a tropical storm sometime tomorrow and it could strengthen more quickly as it moves into an area of lesser shear and warmer SST's near the northern gulf coast. The only other off-season hurricanes to hit land as hurricanes were Alice in 1955 and the two pre-season hurricanes in 1908, but neither of the 1908 storms produced sustained hurricane-force winds on land, despite hitting the northeastern Caribbean islands and the outer banks of NC, respectively, as hurricanes. Anyways, the latest 06Z run of the GFS makes this a 990 mbar storm, which would be about category 1 hurricane intensity, before hitting the Florida/Alabama border. The European model is predicting roughly the same thing. HWRF has backed off on their previous forecast and are now predicting Alberto to be a 993 mbar strong TS when he comes ashore. It's still too soon to tell how fast Alberto will strengthen, hopefully he doesn't get too strong but we can't rule out the possibility of a 75 mph hurricane hitting the northern Gulf coast. Ryan1000 13:03, May 26, 2018 (UTC)


 * 11 AM advisory is out, Alberto's intensity remains unchanged (the pressure did briefly rise to 1006 mbars earlier though, before going back down to 1005). Current movement is north at 10 mph, and the forecast track still brings it up to 65 mph before hitting the northern gulf coast sometime on Monday. Ryan1000 14:57, May 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * 2 PM advisory drops Alberto's pressure to 999 mbars. Winds are at 40 mph. -- Roy 25  17:51, May 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * I wouldn't be surprised if Al intensifies to a hurricane before landfall in the Florida panhandle or Alabama. Would also like to mention that one of our users, Leeboy100, lives right where this storm is expected to make landfall. Hopefully him and others living around the region prepare for this pre-season shocker, which will ruin Memorial Day plans. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:55, May 26, 2018 (UTC)
 * Even though I didn't really interacted with Lee, hope he is safe. In the meantime, latest advisory raises Alberto's pressure to 1002 mbars, and no change in wind speed. -- Roy 25  00:05, May 27, 2018 (UTC)

Alberto's organizing a bit more under more favorable conditions but  he's also picking up speed. He was moving 9-10 mph yesterday, now he's moving at 13. While that means less time to strengthen, it also means shear might not be able to get a hold of him as easily, so it could go up a bit before landfall. He's also starting to look more tropical; I'd be surprised if Alberto doesn't turn fully tropical later today (by UTC). Ryan1000 01:53, May 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Jeezus Alberto, just pick a center  already. Send Help Please (talk) 03:44, May 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * The latest update drops Alberto’s pressure by one to 1001 mbar. God Alberto, just become fully tropical already. --70.190.21.73 04:54, May 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Latest recon pass gives 997mb pressure, winds yet to pick up though. Models have completely given up on Alberto becoming a hurricane, so at least that's one piece of good news for the Gulf Coast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:56, May 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Never mind, they did go up by 5 knots. Advisory 8A just came in. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:57, May 27, 2018 (UTC).
 * Alberto now has a 994mb barometric pressure ~  Blue caner   "DatBlueBoi"  15:42, May 27th, 2018
 * Alberto continues to be a subtropical storm and it continues to bring heavy rain to Florida. It will make landfall at the Gulf Coast at tomorrow morning. --70.190.21.73 16:43, May 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto's wind field is beginning to wrap around the center, tropical transition looks imminent. Send Help Please (talk) 17:02, May 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto's wind field is beginning to wrap around the center, tropical transition looks imminent. Send Help Please (talk) 17:02, May 27, 2018 (UTC)

It seems the eastern portion of Alberto's circulation is lacking some convection, most of it is on the northwest side of the circulation. In any instance, however, I'm surprised Alberto hasn't turned tropical yet. It'll probably do so this evening. Ryan1000 17:32, May 27, 2018 (UTC)

Sorry for not being on, I’ve been busy. However, now I’m not. My schedule has been completely clear, thanks to Alberto. Alberto is headed straight towards where I live, and we got a lot of rain yesterday. Funny thing is that a lot of people who came down here for vacation are panicking like it’s the end of the world, even though Alberto isn’t going to be anywhere near as bad as a few other storms I can think of (Opal, Ivan, Dennis.) Leeboy100 Hello!! 20:59, May 27, 2018 (UTC)

Also, as of the latest advisory, Alberto has now made the anticipated turn to the west. Leeboy100 Hello!! 21:02, May 27, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope it’s not that bad for you Leeboy. If it is bad, then I also hope that you safe and sound. --70.190.21.73 21:11, May 27, 2018 (UTC)


 * Alberto now has a 991mb barometric pressure, and has one minute sustained winds of 65 mph. It could possible become a minimal hurricane before landfall. ~  Blue caner   "DatBlueBoi"  00:13, May 28th, 2018
 * Wow, Alberto is trying to put on a show for us before his anticipated landfall. NHC is expected to issue a special advisory at any moment as I write this...so I expect hurricane watches and warnings may be issued for the coast if that possibility materializes overnight. Owen 00:22, May 28, 2018 (UTC)

Alberto's northwestern eyewall has apparently been eroded away by dry air recently, so it's possible he might not even become tropical before landfall. That doesn't mean Alberto can't reach hurricane intensity though, I believe a non-tropical 75 mph hurricane hit Newfoundland in 1979 as well. Ryan1000 01:08, May 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * And Alberto is no longer expected to become fully tropical. From discussion 12: "Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so the cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window of opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially closed."~ KN2731 {talk} 04:09, May 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto really likes Florida ^_^ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:25, May 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * No wonder why Alberto really likes Florida, he keeps on going to Florida and cause damage there. And also, this Alberto is going to make landfall where 1994’s Alberto made landfall. --70.190.21.73 05:21, May 28, 2018 (UTC)

And his 2006 incarnation, too. Alberto has sucked in more dry air than I expected it to, so rainfall is going to be less severe near the landfall location than expected, and it's not expected to get much stronger or cause as severe flooding when it hits the panhandle. In fact, Alberto's heaviest rainfall is located in his outermost rainbands, just southeast of Miami and over South Carolina. Ryan1000 10:22, May 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto now has a 990mb barometric pressure, I think the only way this storm could become fully tropical is it reaching hurricane force winds, and the NHC would probably classify it as a fully tropical hurricane. However, this storms flooding (in certain areas) could be really bad, like alberto 94' ~  Blue caner   "DatBlueBoi"  13:07, May 28th, 2018
 * Alberto is nearing landfall at the Florida Panhandle. Now has winds of 60 mph as well as pressure of 992 mb. -- Roy 25  15:42, May 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto now has a 994mb barometric pressure and has 50mph winds, making landfall right now. ~  Blue caner   "DatBlueBoi"  20:35, May 28, 2018

(Edit conflict.) Going to be making landfall any minute now. Winds are currently 50 mph, pressure 994. Also, thank you guys for wishing for my safety and well-being. Don’t worry about me, though, Alberto is making landfall about 80-90 miles to the east of me, and since it’s so disorganized, I’m not getting much aside from occasional rain. In fact, as I type this, the sun is out in my area. We’ll see if the NHC confirms official landfall in the next advisory, which should be out sometime in the next 20 minutes. Leeboy100 Hello!! 20:39, May 28, 2018 (UTC)


 * ...CENTER OF ALBERTO MAKING LANDFALL NEAR LAGUNA BEACH FLORIDA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Latest advisory out, Alberto is currently making landfall, and it has weakened a bit. Winds now down to 45 mph, pressure remains the same. Leeboy100 Hello!! 20:47, May 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Fun facts:
 * Despite forming in late May, Alberto still marks the latest start to an AHS since 2014.
 * Alberto is the first subtropical cyclone to exist in the GOM in May since 1976.
 * Alberto's peak pressure of 990 mbar is the second-lowest known for a May Atlantic (sub)tropical cyclone, only after Able in 1951.
 * Alberto has been a really damn cool storm to watch. Even disregarding the fact that it's May, it's not every season the GOM gets a subtropical cyclone, nor is it every season one makes landfall as such.
 * --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:14, May 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's also, as mentioned before, the 4th consecutive season to start early, and if next year gets a May storm or earlier, we'll have 5 consecutive seasons with a pre-season start, which would be a first. That being said, an early start doesn't necessarily mean an active heart-of-season, unless the early start takes place in the MDR, like it did last year with Bret and Don. If that happens in June or July this year too, then this year may also have some bad storms to watch out for later on, but this year's naming list hasn't been the luckiest in retired names...only 4 names have been chopped from this list since it began. Ryan1000 00:37, May 29, 2018 (UTC)

Alby, YOU BETTER WATCH YOURSELF AND YOUR BEHAVIOUR otherwise you'll scare the children away.

Anyway, I gotta admit this is a cool storm to watch just like what Ry stated above. Reminds me of Annie 2007 to an extent (even though he looks more like a shrimp than a crystal ball). I'm lowkey glad he remained subtropical to be fair. ｕｒ　ｍａｉ　ｗａｉｆｕ　ｄｅｓｕ　ノ域囲真 00:52, May 29, 2018 (UTC)

I hate to ruin the positivity of this forum, but Alberto now has confirmed fatalities. 2 reporters for an NBC affiliate in North Carolina died after a tree fell onto their SUV. A really sad situation, and let’s hope that Alberto doesn’t claim anymore lives. Leeboy100 Hello!! 01:34, May 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * And damage from this storm is minimal. Let’s just also hope that Alberto isn’t any more destructive. --70.190.21.73 01:39, May 29, 2018 (UTC)

Subtropical Depression Alberto
Now downgraded to a Depression. Winds are 35 mph, pressure is 996. Leeboy100 Hello!! 02:42, May 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Weakening further, now with 25-knot winds and 999 mb pressure. Goodbye in advance, Alberto! ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:23, May 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * The NHC has issued its final advisory on Alberto. --70.190.21.73 17:01, May 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/998. Pressure seems pretty low for a depression. -- Roy 25  22:30, May 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * Not for a subtropical one though. The death toll still stands at 2, hopefully it doesn't go any higher, and damage, while currently unknown, is likely in the (tens of) millions of dollars worth. Ryan1000 23:50, May 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Alberto
LOL it became tropical at the last moment. -- Roy 25  03:28, May 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Oh and it went up to 35 mph. -- Roy 25  03:29, May 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto, tropical prankster extraordinaire. The transition and strengthening could be thanks to how much rain the area has been getting in the past couple of weeks. Send Help Please (talk) 04:20, May 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Funny how it stayed subtropical its whole lifespan, until now. Because it peaked subtropical, I'm pretty sure it might remain subtropical in the archives (Wikipedia season page, etc). So far, Wiki's seasonal effects table lists 2 indirect deaths (see Leeboy's post above) in association with Alberto and minimal damages. I'm glad Leeboy didn't get so much from this system other than rain, we were worried about you for a second there due to the storm looking like it was heading directly your way. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:38, May 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Finally, it became fully tropical at its last moments. All this time, I have been waiting for Alberto to become tropical, until now. And I’m also glad Leeboy didn’t impact his area as much. --70.190.21.73 16:59, May 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Alberto's now located over Indiana. Quite persistent, isn't he? Send Help Please (talk) 21:25, May 30, 2018 (UTC)

Some areas a bit a ways from Alberto's circulation got harder rainfall than where the center was with the storm, and (though unrelated to Alberto) Elliot City, Maryland suffered it's second 1 in 1000 year flood for two years in a row. It was on TWC's headlines for the past few days alongside Alberto's remnants. Ryan1000 00:00, May 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * And now this tropical depression is over Michigan, and it still hasn't been declared a remnant low yet. Maybe it could make it to Canada while still as a tropical depression, that would be cool to see. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:59, May 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Okay Alberto I take that back. Not saying goodbye just yet. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:20, May 31, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Alberto
Never mind, didn't see the advisory. Goodbye (for real this time). Unfortunately it didn't make it to Canada, but it was close. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:27, May 31, 2018 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, Alberto's death toll has risen to 8 6. Hopefully it doesn't get higher. Ryan1000 09:58, May 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wow, never expected Alberto to claim that much lives. Anyways, tomorrow is the official start of the AHS. As for TCR, I ber that Alberto was tropical before landfall, and it also looked better while inland. Al probably maybe a high end TS. But we will only know until his TCR comes out. -- Roy 25  12:37, May 31, 2018 (UTC)

Actually, scratch that, it was 6. But still. Hopefully it gets no higher and damage wasn't too severe. Ryan1000 12:47, May 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * 9 ;-; ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:48, May 31, 2018 (UTC)

Man, I guess I spoke too soon. It was 8 earlier before being downed to 6 on Wikipedia, guess they found another fatality with this storm...in any instance though, ex-Alberto is over Canada now, so he's no longer a threat to the U.S. Ryan1000 15:05, May 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * I downed it to six on the season article because I couldn't find anything that accounted for the additional two, then a couple hours later another editor came by with sources (on the storm article) to bump it up to nine. Anyway I hope it doesn't rise any further. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:23, May 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Specifically about the 9 deaths, 7 were killed directly and the 2 guys from television station WYFF were killed indirectly. --70.190.21.73 17:29, May 31, 2018 (UTC)

June
The hurricane season has begun, and the wait for Beryl begins. - Vile (6/1/18)

AOI: North of Colombia
The GFS has been very consistent in developing another tropical cyclone in about a week or so and according to the latest run looks like a potential 970 mbar Category 2 Hurricane Beryl making landfall in Florida. Just something to keep an eye on. Owen 02:45, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * A GFS model run is showing this storm reaching 956 millibars, then making landfall on Galveston as a 970 millibar hurricane. This is a week away, though, so the location of where the storm makes landfall may change in the next model run. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 23:31, June 8, 2018 (UTC)

It's now officially on the NHC's tropical weather outlook, at 10/20. Currently forecast to head south of Texas, hitting the Yucatan then mainland Mexico, but it's still too soon to call. Ryan1000 17:59, June 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * I have hopes for this system to be Beryl, but like you said, it's too soon to call. -- Roy 25  23:16, June 11, 2018 (UTC)

The GFS has dropped the storm. Disturbance remains 10/20 on NHC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:28, June 12, 2018 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Second invest, probably a fail, but time will tell. -- Roy 25  15:45, June 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * It probably won't become strong down the road but, like several past storms such as Danielle of 2016, this could be a brief TS spinnup in the BoC before it moves into mainland Mexico sometime early next week. Ryan1000 17:35, June 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I feel this could be a brief BOC spinup. I'm still not sure if it will become Beryl though. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:51, June 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0/10. This will not be Beryl. To be fair at least it won't steal a name. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:00, June 14, 2018 (UTC)