Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I think that we'll probably see a below average season for the first time since 2013. Probably a La Nina? I dunno, it's far out to tell. Any others? Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:04, November 26, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'm thinking near-average for now. A potential La Nina could make the season less active, but it's too early to know for sure if a below-average season will occur. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:43, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I agree with you Steve. Its too early to make any prediction about the condition of the ENSO right now, and so to predict the season. A near average season looks likely, unless we get something like 2010. --182.58.43.102 13:15, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * I'd say near to below average. To be fair, I'm only interested in Hurricane Lane.  SUPREME COLGATE CREW 14:48, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is going to be the EPac's 2013. The vertical wind shear will be extreme through most of the basin for the most of next season. This is going to be a re-2011 with not as many C4 storms, let alone if we see any C3s. T  G  My Birthday 21:07, November 27, 2017 (UTC)


 * Made the betting pools, click here. - Garfield
 * Ayo, check out my predictions under the "Strangest Storm" section for Lane. GO ON LANE, you're the only EPAC 2018 storm I'm actually looking forward to. (Or shall I call you Elaine, your full name?)  SUPREME COLGATE CREW 20:06, December 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Rarah, Elaine is not the full name. Lane is a male name. T  G  My Birthday 12:34, December 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lol, still gonna call Lane "Elaine the Pain", dis gun be gud. SUPREME COLGATE CREW 16:06, December 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * I feel this year could be similar to 2017 how it gets through a lot of names, but the storms are weak and ACE is fairly low. We'll see. - Garfield


 * Damn, I happen like the EPac a lot for its abundance of fishspinning majors. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:41, January 4, 2018 (UTC)

Just got this from Storm2K:

"Who wants to answer the following question? Which names will be the big ones in the 2018 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season? (Cat 3 or higher)

I will go with Daniel,Gilma,John,Miriam and Olivia.

Ditto. Same here."

Yeah, because those are the overrated names. I predict Lane will be one of the strongest to be honest. #TeamLane2018  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:09, February 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * I would agree with Daniel, Gilma, and Olivia. Maybe add in Ileana or Kristy. I honestly just can't see the name Lane going to any strong, imo. T  G  2 0 1 8 21:57, February 5, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, because of the hurricane tracker community's strong bias towards Daniel, Gilma and Olivia in that list finna smh fam. Why don't you see Lane become any strong? You have something against her? No, I predict Daniel, Fabio, Ileana and Lane to all peak as majors. SERIOUSLY, THIS WILL BE THE YEAR OF THE UNDERDOGS, I predict Gilma will be a flop TS Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 00:44, February 6, 2018 (UTC)

I don't think Lane will be that weak at all. #TeamLane2018  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 00:46, February 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I know a guy named Lane who is a real moron, which is what I have against Lane. Every time I hear that name, it reminds me of that kid. T  G  2 0 1 8 01:55, February 7, 2018 (UTC)

hmmm why would you say that? was he a bully, or was he wasted all the time?? I can just think of an edgy alternative girl or a cute guy whenever that name is heard Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 02:52, February 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * He was a bully who threatened to stab me and several other kids. He also threatened to shoot up the school. T  G  2 0 1 8 21:24, February 7, 2018 (UTC)

You serious? oh my days... I bet he's in prison now, good thing you spoke the truth! I am so sorry to hear your experiences. Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 22:24, February 7, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow... the Lane that you met must have had major issues. He may have been severely abused as a child, which could lead to that kind of behavior. Hopefully he is now in a group home or mental hospital, or he could even be in prison now. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:57, February 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Was just gonna say what Steve said but I was too frightened to. To add he might be sectioned. (I do know of a Lane at my uni but she comes from a country where English is not the first language (it's her nickname; her first language is French), that's why I didn't view it as that bad).  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 02:36, February 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Anyway, even though the names are cute this year, I'm really missing the Legend Trio already (Jimena, Darby, Kenny). These three always so some crazy shit in the basin that they are the three most legendary names of all time (Jimena for always standing out from the rest of the majors, Darbasaur for always being a C3 and Kenny for always being a C4). I'll have to wait until I'm at least 22 to see them again :( Are there any names that always have strong tendencies on this year's list?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:45, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:
 * Anyway, even though the names are cute this year, I'm really missing the Legend Trio already (Jimena, Darby, Kenny). These three always so some crazy shit in the basin that they are the three most legendary names of all time (Jimena for always standing out from the rest of the majors, Darbasaur for always being a C3 and Kenny for always being a C4). I'll have to wait until I'm at least 22 to see them again :( Are there any names that always have strong tendencies on this year's list?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:45, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:
 * Hang in there... I'm now predicting the EPac will have its finest activity from Kristy onwards since it might be projected that El Nino could come in the autumn. Here's what I'm predicting:


 * 19-12-5 for this year's numbers
 * Lane is the strongest this year, a high-end, fishy C4 in September, headed for Hawaii, or passes very near it.
 * Remember MaLester, KiGnaMena, JuliSelle, DanElia and IrVa in previous years? Yes, those were the power couples of selected years of the EPac during this current decade. 2018's power couple will be KrAne, two fishy C4s that should produce a good set of ACE.
 * Weakest storm is Carly (sorry for all Carly lovers!)
 * Nobody gets retired.
 * Lots of good-quality storms this year; I'm anticipating plenty of C2s.

What about you? ｕｒ　ｍａｉ　ｗａｉｆｕ　ｄｅｓｕ　ノ域囲真 23:10, March 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * One more month until the EPac season kicks in. -- Roy 25  00:42, April 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Everyone's worried about Lane, but I'm worring about John. It could be a California Disaster - 01:13, April 19th, 2018 - Bluecaner


 * The season has officially begun! --70.190.21.73 00:00, May 15, 2018 (UTC)

Pre-season (Jan to mid-May)
In case. -- Roy 25  00:42, April 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * This model shows a possibility of a storm developing 66 hours from now. Another pre-season storm, could break Adrian's record if it does form. Also this storm does look like it would form in the CPac basin. -- Roy 25  01:56, April 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hope it forms! -Bluecaner, 02:41, April 25, 2018 (UTC)

This Model] shows it developing 34 hours from now.No.1 Mobile (talk) 12:47, April 26, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Out in the Ocean, SE of Mexico
STWO up by NHC, first disturbance this year here. Low chance of forming; medium chance within 5 days. -- Roy 25  17:51, May 7, 2018 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
First invest of the 2018 EPac season. Has an outside chance to become an early-season Aletta; the 2012 Aletta did that too. Ryan1000 21:26, May 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now medium chance of formimg with 50/50. Stated that a tropical depression may form later today or the next day before entering non-favorable conditions. An increasing chance we may have another pre-season storm. -- Roy 25  20:04, May 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70%...could Aletta be coming later today? Ryan1000 10:08, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Needs more thunderstorms over the center... come on 90E! ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:16, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Accordingly, has until late Thursday until non-favorable kicks in. Please don't be a re-PTC 10. -- Roy 25  12:26, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Had reached non-favorable conditions, chances decreased to 50%. However, it still has a possibility a depression could form from this later today before wind shear kicks in tomorrow. -- Roy 25  17:45, May 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Downgraded to 30/30. This was a fail lol. -- Roy 25  03:08, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like Adrian's record is going to stay. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:54, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Back up to 50/50. Still doubt formation. Nutfield001 (talk) 17:32, May 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-E
OMG NO WAY!!! UNEXPECTED!!!-- Roy 25  20:40, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Turns out myself (and Roy) were proven wrong and TD-One is now active as of the latest advisory . Nutfield001 (talk) 20:48, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Doesn't look like it's going to do anything else from here though... Send Help Please (talk) 20:53, May 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * True, the forecast cone doesn't expect One-E to strengthen to Aletta. Though only a depression, it's a nice pre-season surprise and continues the streak of pre-season storms in the EPAC (east of 180°) after Pali in 2016. Nutfield001 (talk) 21:01, May 10, 2018 (UTC)

now slightly stronger.No.1 Mobile (talk) 03:03, May 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * This is such an early bird. Did not expect anything to develop this soon! I guess it is a weaker variant of Adrian from last year; both formed similarly early. However, this should not become Aletta due to powerful shear. Aletta will have to wait. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:58, May 11, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone One-E
Now post-tropical. Say goodbye to the early storm. -- Roy 25  02:34, May 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * There goes our first shot at Aletta. Maybe we'll have something by the end of the month. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:21, May 13, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
June has begun, and the EPac has a new area of invest to watch for south of Mexico. It's not expected to develop in the next 2 days, but has a 20% chance of becoming Aletta in 5. Ryan1000 14:19, June 1, 2018 (UTC)

Now 30%.No.1 Mobile (talk) 21:34, June 1, 2018 (UTC)

Up to 0/50%.No.1 Mobile (talk) 00:38, June 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Increased further to 0/60. Aletta definitely coming from this one. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:12, June 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 10/70. Could be Aletta, or peak at sad TD 2E. -- Roy 25  23:15, June 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Both GFS and ECMWF show this becoming a hurricane within the next 7 days. Hopefully it misses Western Mexico. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:41, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * 20/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:38, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 20/90. Models, like KN2731 said, brings this to not just a hurricane, but major as well. Models, including ECMWF, also show the formation of Bud soon, so we should keep an eye. -- Roy 25  14:34, June 3, 2018 (UTC)

I'd be surprised if this doesn't become Aletta by this point, but it's expected to remain offshore of Mexico. However, it could bring some surf to the coast of Mexico or southern California. If it becomes major hurricane Aletta, it would be the first storm named Aletta to become a major hurricane. Ryan1000 16:22, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 30/90. -- Roy 25  17:28, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * It's almost a certainty now because those odds look pretty good. Hurricane Kat  18:29, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * The GFS has been sticking with what looks like a re-Carlotta 2000 or a re-Bud 2012 (only if Bud was somewhat stronger). This has a great shot at becoming the first hurricane and the first major hurricane of the season. Euro even has developed a C2-C3 hurricane, so Aletta is likely to be fairly intense. T  G  2 0 1 8 18:36, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 40/90. I'm suprised this hasn't been invested yet. -- Roy 25  23:17, June 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * 60/90. GFS brings this to 927 mbar, but for some reason ECMWF is now slightly less enthusiastic than yesterday. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:53, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * The GFS also eventually takes this a little close to central/northern Baja in the 06Z run today, but it's expected to weaken quite a bit by then or die offshore; Blanca 3 years ago became the earliest TS to strike Baja, but only as a minimal storm. Both the GFS and the Euro also foresee another storm behind Aletta-to-be, with the Euro making it a strong fishspinner while the GFS recurves it towards Mexico around Manzanillo. EPac is starting to wake up. Ryan1000 14:01, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Now invested, and up to 60/90. This will most likely be Aletta, and could become a strong hurricane. - Vile


 * The GFS is still sticking with a strong hurricane, definitely something that could warrant some attention. I think this storm will be very similar to Hurricane Bud in 2012 in the way that it behaves. T  G  2 0 1 8 15:06, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I wonder why it took that long to be invested? Anyways, models still does show this storm near or at major hurricane status. -- Roy 25  15:22, June 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * GFS is now surprisingly showing only 96 kts for its latest run. T  G  2 0 1 8 17:17, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

I'm calling for the first major Hurricane Aletta ever. THE EPAC 2018 SEASON is at least gonna be better to watch compared to last year. Aletta is following in the footsteps of Anders and Amanda in recent years. Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 18:01, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

UPDATE: 12z GFS now bottoms at 934 mbs in this run. Amanda, in comparison, was 932mb. Anders was 937mb. Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 18:04, June 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * You mean Andres was 937mb unless it is a nickname. Anyway, this will become probably become strong in the long run. --70.190.21.73 04:14, June 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * "Anders" is probably just a nickname. She has a habit of being creative with storm names, etc. Anyway, here comes Aletta! It might even develop into a major hurricane in the long run. Current development chances are 70/90. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:51, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 80/90 per latest TWO. Aletta should be coming out in the next next TWO or so. --70.190.21.73 16:42, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 100/100. Guarantee now. -- Roy 25  17:27, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta or TD-2E should be coming out any moment now. --70.190.21.73 18:06, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * And it’s still not developing. Maybe on the next advisory? --70.190.21.73 23:44, June 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two-E
Now here finally. Forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday. -- Roy 25  02:49, June 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Given future-Aletta isn't going anywhere near land I'm rooting for a strong C4 or even C5 if she can make it there. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:30, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I too think the 100 mph windspeed estimate is conservative, at least somewhat. I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a powerful major hurricane, but it'll be well out to sea no matter how strong it gets. Ryan1000 03:33, June 6, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Aletta
Welcome to the first named storm for this year's Pacific hurricane season! ~ KN2731 {talk} 08:48, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * NHC brings it up to 90 mph, right now at 45/1000. 90 mph could be conservative though. T  G  2 0 1 8 11:25, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * RI index is still high and probable with Aletta before she encounters cooler SST's 5 days from now or so. EPac storms have a tendency to intensify beyond the NHC forecasts for them, many storms over the past several years got stronger than forecast in the EPac. The Atlantic has gotten somewhat more accurate though. Ryan1000 12:35, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * I'm getting Andres 2015 vibes from this. Not saying it'll be a C4, but the early cones for it also forecasted a 90 mph peak. The RI index is high, so a major is very possible. - Vile
 * This storm is reminding me of Blas from a couple of years ago. It is also giving me vibes from Andres, and this could very well be a C4. Like Ryan and Garfield have both said, the RI index is high, which means we could very well see our first Major Hurricane Aletta from this storm. T  G  2 0 1 8 13:08, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Wind shear is low and waters are warm but typical for this time of year, dry air is causing problems, and ASCAT suggest the center isn't well defined, although it's an improvement from yesterday. This likely becomes a hurricane but this is going to have to consolidate a bit for serious intensification. There's like 60 hours left, but if this isn't a hurricane by tomorrow night, forget a major hurricane. In fact, most of the guidance has gone down slightly (not that that's unusual for the system like this), with the SHIPS bringing this to 75 knots and the LGEM keeping this a tropical storm. YE Pacific Hurricane  20:23, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta hasn't intensified much at all today, the latest advisory ups her to 50 mph/999 mbars, though I expected Aletta would be a little stronger at this point. Dry air is always a problem with EPac storms maintaining their intensity for long, but a number of EPac storms in the past have managed to intensify to higher than expected heights despite seemingly dry air in front of them. Ryan1000 03:54, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta is now a 65 mph, 994 mbar storm, with the National Hurricane Center forecasting an upgrade to hurricane status in at least six hours. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:56, June 7, 2018 (UTC)

Aletta has organized significantly over the past few hours and it'll probably be a hurricane sometime soon, and it still has a chance to blow up before encountering dry air in 2-3 days. I wouldn't rule out major hurricane strength. Ryan1000 13:29, June 7, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Aletta
Say hello to not just the first EPac named storm, but also the first EPac hurricane of the year. -- Roy 25  20:41, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * And we have our first Hurricane Aletta since 2000. Aletta already looks impressive for a low-end C1 on IR. T  G  2 0 1 8 00:09, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Just intensified to a Category 2 hurricane. Major hurricane is out of the question. -- Roy 25  02:43, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta is now a Category 2 hurricane after beginning rapid intensification. This one is really impressing me. Let's see if it can become a major. - Vile
 * Aletta has a very impressive satellite presentation at the moment. If she further improves it in the next 6 hours we'll have our first major hurricane this year. ~ KN2731 {talk} 02:51, June 8, 2018 (UTC)

I don't think it's out of the question Roy, unless you meant "not out of the question". Aletta certainly has a chance of becoming a major sometime before this weekend when she'll encounter less favorable conditions, though the current NHC forecast only predicts a 110 mph cat 2. But given Aletta's current sattelite appearance, I'd actually be surprised if she doesn't become a major soon. Ryan1000 03:05, June 8, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Aletta
Special advisory issued to declare that Aletta has become a Category 3 hurricane. Winds 105 knots, pressure 957 mb. Aletta is now forecast to reach C4 in 12 hours. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:24, June 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * And the EPac overdoes the NHC's expectations once again, also Aletta shoved the Euro's forecast right down their throat. GFS and HWRF nailed this one. This is Aletta's strongest incarnation to date and the only major hurricane named Aletta. Not bad Aletta, not bad. Ryan1000 09:37, June 8, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yay! The first Major Hurricane Aletta! This was something I have been waiting for. But this is definitely a major reminder of Andres in 2015. T  G  2 0 1 8 11:52, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * According to ATCF, Aletta has exploded into a Category 4 hurricane and now has 140 mph winds. Such an impressive storm. - Vile

Was in the club yesterday night when I found out she became a hurricane and now I woke up to find her as a major. This storm is reminding me of Amanda. In honour of this Aletta becoming the first ever major with this name I will dress in orange head to row today and probably hire a bike. ORANJE ORANJEEEE (Aletta is a Dutch name FYI) Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 13:19, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta just rapidly intensified. And yes Ryan, I did meant "not out of the question". -- Roy 25  13:20, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta has a shot at C5 if it continues this trend, but time is beginning to run short, so it might only peak as a 150-155 mph storm. T  G  2 0 1 8 13:23, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Confirmed by NHC to be 120 knots, 943 mb. NHC's expected peak is now 125 knots, though they have not detected any hint of an eyewall replacement cycle. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:52, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta's maximum sustained winds have doubled over the past 24 hours, very impressive. I'd like to note that with the first storm of the EPAC season, 2018 has already surpassed 2017 in terms of minimum pressure (943 mbar vs. Fernanda's 948 mbar, though Fernanda's winds peaked 5 kts higher than Aletta's current standing). I can see Aletta creeping up to the 125-130 kt range, but I'm not going to hold my breath for a Category 5, as awesome as it would be if Aletta could achieve that level of intensity. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:31, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it seems like Aletta is peaking now. I doubt it will become a category 5. ChowKam2002 (talk) 16:42, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory maintains intensity. It seems like the rapid intensification phase ended; I am doubting further strengthening. ChowKam2002 (talk) 20:51, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta should be weakening at this point seeing as it is not strengthening. -- Roy 25  02:12, June 9, 2018 (UTC)

Now weakened to a Category 3 from the latest advisory. -- Roy 25  02:42, June 9, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Aletta (2nd time)
Going down fast, C2 now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:20, June 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to Category 1 as Three-E forms. -- Roy 25  20:43, June 9, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Aletta (2nd time)
Now a tropical storm, expected to weaken more. -- Roy 25  02:40, June 10, 2018 (UTC)


 * From 3z on the 9th to 3z on the 10th, Aletta weakened from a 110-kt Category 3 major hurricane to a 50-kt tropical storm; a decrease of 60 kts in the space of only 24 hours. That's just as fast as Aletta strengthened lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:31, June 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Aletta
Down to a TD, 35 mph, 1005 mbars. Aletta's probably going to die sometime tonight or tomorrow. But hey, at least it was nice while it lasted. Ryan1000 18:05, June 11, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta
Now gone. -- Roy 25  23:14, June 11, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:Behind Invest 91E
This is a great candidate for Bud, GFS develops a 929 mbar storm in about 9 days for this one. Currently 0/20. T G  2 0 1 8 17:33, June 4, 2018 (UTC)

Wow, Buddy, you've gone from historical flop back in 1978 and since 2006 you've always been a major! I'm sure he'll impress Aletta this time around! GWAN BUD YOU PENG THING ;)  Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 18:01, June 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * And another strong hurricane is possible. This one and 91E are going to be major hurricanes if they will in the long run. --70.190.21.73 04:17, June 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Two back-to-back strong hurricanes? Looking very possible, but it's only early June though... EPac is really starting to ramp up now. I think "Bud" sounds like a good name for a C2-C3 hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:54, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up on the 5-day TWO at 40%. Ryan1000 12:11, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 0/50. -- Roy 25  17:28, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now 10/60. -- Roy 25  23:37, June 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Latest TWO brings it up to 20/70. This is a potential candidate for a very strong C4 at this rate. Something along the lines of Carlotta in 2000. T  G  2 0 1 8 12:00, June 6, 2018 (UTC)

Latest TWO says this is now 30/80. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:14, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Models still show this a hurricane or a major hurricane like Aletta. Only time will tell. -- Roy 25  23:02, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 30/90 on the latest advisory. -- Roy 25  23:41, June 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Unlike Aletta, ECMWF is actually bullish on this. This could be our first major. YE Pacific Hurricane  00:27, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now upped to 40/90. -- Roy 25  20:42, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * Upped to 50/90. -- Roy 25  23:45, June 7, 2018 (UTC)
 * I am not liking the ECMWF's current run. It shows future Bud slamming into Baja California and Sinaloa. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:02, June 8, 2018 (UTC)

Hopefully Bud-to-be stays well offshore of Mexico instead of trying something like that. The only June TS to hit Baja California, as mentioned before, was Blanca 3 years ago. Both the GFS and the HWRF keep this offshore in their latest runs, and it looks like those two models may have nailed Aletta's intensity, assuming she becomes a major hurricane sometime later today (by UTC). Ryan1000 03:13, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Um... GFS's latest run (Friday June 8 00z) brings it into Baja. Let's hope this is an anomaly. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:33, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * And now 70/90. Hasn't been invested yet, though. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:37, June 8, 2018 (UTC)

That's the 00Z run from the GFS this morning, I was referring to the 18Z from yesterday, which keeps this offshore. GFS has also been consistently developing an AOI in the western Caribbean into an Alberto-like TS tracking northwest towards the gulf coast around that time, which could become Beryl if they predict that accurately. The 00Z HWRF forecast also keeps this offshore for now, but it may not be going far enough yet to tell, since the HWRF goes only 5 days and 6 hours out at max, while the 00Z Euro and GFS make a landfall from this at around 8 and a half days or so. Ryan1000 09:46, June 8, 2018 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tidbits, now at 80/90. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:33, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * Updated to 90/90. Here comes Bud... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 18:24, June 8, 2018 (UTC)

GFS has trended back to keeping this offshore in their latest 18Z run, and the Euro now weakens this considerably before making landfall in central Baja. The 12Z HWRF run today still doesn't quite complete with this making a landfall, but they may keep this offshore as well. All 3 of those main models are bullish on the intensity for this storm, however, so this is certainly something to watch. Ryan1000 23:21, June 8, 2018 (UTC)
 * This also has an outside potential to be a major hurricane (let's hope not seeing as some models shows a landfall), but either ways, it's likely the EPac will have the second named storm from this disturbance. If Bud in fact does become a strong hurricane, that and with Major Hurricane Aletta both in June would mean something for the rest of the season. -- Roy 25  02:11, June 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Bud now has a 100% chance of formation in the next 48 hours, could even see it by the end of the day ~  Blue caner   "DatBlueBoi"  19:22, June 9th, 2018

Tropical Depression Three-E
Now here, almost certainly to be Bud. -- Roy 25  20:40, June 9, 2018 (UTC)


 * The current NHC forecast expects a 105 mph cat 2 from this at least, but as Aletta showed us, it could go past that as the global models and HWRF have been predicting and become a major, but if Bud-to-be eventually threatens Baja California, it'll probably be only a tropical storm at that point due to less favorable conditions in that area. Ryan1000 21:04, June 9, 2018 (UTC)
 * Omg, that thing is too big! It's me?? Or is this looking like 2015? With Aletta-Bud and Andres-Blanca. --PiperTheLoveBirb 23:48, June 9, 2018 (UTC)

Piper dawg dat thing lookin hella thicc yo, finna get that bud blooming at cat 4 man Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 00:23, June 10, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bud
OI OI!!!!! However only a cat 1 expected man -_- -- Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 02:38, June 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * You beat me by a minute lol. It could be at least a Cat 2 like the models say. -- Roy 25  02:41, June 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Damn well I hope he's even better  Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 02:45, June 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 55 kts/994 mbar, forecast peak raised to 95 kts. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:45, June 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * Bud doesn't have much time (~around 24 hours) but this is well on its way to Category 4. Probably a hurricane now. YE Pacific Hurricane  16:27, June 10, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Bud
TS watches for Mexico.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:40, June 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * NHC says that "rapid strengthening is underway." I hope it becomes a major, but weakens to a tropical storm before it affects Mexico. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 22:03, June 10, 2018 (UTC)
 * I hope too, but I doubt it would be as strong as Aletta, especially since Aletta may have left a cold wake. Anyways, Bud is now 80/984. -- Roy 25  00:13, June 11, 2018 (UTC)

Bud's not looking too bad right now, and is on a course to become another major hurricane. I also find it odd that Bud never became a hurricane in any of his 2000 or prior incarnations, but this is now the third consecutive Bud to become a (major) hurricane following his 2006 and 2012 incarnations, assuming this Bud can intensify to cat 3 sometime tomorrow. On a side note, the storm floaters page for NOAA is being replaced from GOES-16 to GOES-east, so the storm floaters imagery page on the Hurricane Wiki main header doesn't have storm imagery on it, if you guys still want to see tropical cyclone imagery close-up, you can go to this page from the NHC's website. Ryan1000 02:43, June 11, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Bud
Intermediate advisory boosts Bud to 100 kts/960 mbar. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:15, June 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * 3rd consecutive Bud to become a major. Not bad, but Bud's not forecast to be a major for too long before he weakens over cooler waters near Baja. Ryan1000 12:24, June 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * New advisory ups Bud a little more to 120 mph and 955 mbars, he could get a little stronger over the next day or so until cooler waters near Baja wear Bud down to a TS. The current NHC forecast expects Bud to be no more than a 40 mph TS by the time he reaches Baja, and Bud could even weaken to a depression or dissipate just offshore of Baja without making a landfall there. Hopefully that happens. Ryan1000 18:05, June 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * Bud is impressive in satellite imagery, it even looks like a Category 4! -- Roy 25  23:20, June 11, 2018 (UTC)

9 PM MDT advisory further ups Bud to 125 mph and 951 mbars; he's not far from a 130 mph cat 4, but he'll have to do it by the next advisory or so before Bud encounters the cooler SST's near southern Baja. Ryan1000 03:28, June 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * The ACTF had already put Bud as a 115kt/948mb category 4 hurricane. Xyklone (talk) 07:24, June 12, 2018 (UTC)

Bud's grafting it, this boi just became a category 4  Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 09:50, June 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Btw, Bud kinda looks like Carlotta from 2000 IMO. Xyklone (talk) 09:55, June 12, 2018 (UTC) BudvsCarlotta.png
 * Bud's C4 stint will be brief, core convection is already weakening thanks to upwelling. At least at this rate Bud won't have very significant impacts on Mexico. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:20, June 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, no repeated Odile. Xyklone (talk) 10:48, June 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * It'll probably be a repeat of Blanca of 2015, which also fell victim to upwelling over its own wake, like Bud appears to be doing now, and it shouldn't be more than a TS when it hits Baja. While Blanca did so slightly earlier in the season, it wasn't too destructive for the peninsula due to its low intensity, and Bud probably won't be either. Ryan1000 12:41, June 12, 2018 (UTC)

Weakening now, down to Category 3 hurricane, 125/950. -- Roy 25  15:38, June 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * The northern eyewall on Bud has completely collapsed, meaning that it will probably quickly weaken from here on out. T  G  2 0 1 8 18:57, June 12, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, two C4's in early June alone. It's on a weakening trend now, and will affect Baja and the Desert Southwest in the future as a weaker system. I hope it brings moisture as far west as where I live, so maybe we could see some rain for once. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:54, June 12, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Bud (2nd time)
OOF! HOW THE HELL DID HE BECOME A CATEGORY ONE FROM BEING A CATEGORY 3 JUST AFTER I HAD A 70S MUSIC VIDEO BINGE? Like literally I checked Bud's progress, he was a 3... put on some 70s music videos for 2 hours and now he's a 1? BUD GET SOME PROTEIN BUT DON'T BOTHER THE BAJA! That was strange... -- Vðlå ñêllå mïå vï†å, ñð ñðñ è £ïñï†å Ìð mï £êrmêrò 02:41, June 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bud (2nd time)
Down to a TS, 70 mph/990 mbars as of the latest advisory. Cooler SST's have really taken their toll on Bud over the last 24 hours, but he'll probably be able to hold on to TS strength when he reaches southern Baja near Cabo San Lucas. Ryan1000 12:30, June 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Down to 55 kt, but there's also a TS warning for the region near Cabo San Lucas. Expected to dissipate inland over New Mexico. (This is the same user as the 182.58 IP, only now as a user. Also, could someone please help me with adding colour to my signature? Thanks in advance.) -JavaHurricane 15:02, June 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now down to 45 kt. This is good news that this storm has been weakening steadily. Hopefully impacts in Baja are minor, at most, and that this system brings beneficial rain to the drought-stricken southwest. ChowKam2002 (talk) 00:48, June 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 40 kt. Looks like a shell-shaped cyclone to me. JavaHurricane 12:03, June 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * About 12 more hours to landfall. Not like that matters too much because there's nearly no convection left near the center anyway. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:57, June 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Is it worth calling this a tropical cyclone? It looks more like a remnant low as per NHC standards, but they are intent on keeping it tropical. -- Java Hurricane  15:22, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

Well, Bud technically still has a tropical circulation, but he's lost most, if not all, of his deep convection by this point, and rainfall will most likely be minimal in the area around Cabo when Bud strikes there sometime tonight or tomorrow morning. He probably won't be much different than Blanca '15 was in terms of impacts to the peninsula. Ryan1000 15:29, June 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I still saw a circulation on satellite imagery and some small amounts of convection. Anyway, Bud will die out pretty soon as it heads into Baja. Contrary to my previous post, I highly doubt we will receive anything from it's remnants in SoCal. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:21, June 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Bud is now down to 45 mph/1000 mbar, the weaker it is, the better Baja will fare from this storm. Bud has been fairly cool while it has lasted, though. T  G  2 0 1 8 16:36, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

Landfall in Baja California Sur
Bud has now apparently made a landfall just northeast of Cabo San Lucas as a 40 mph TS, but he appears to have lost most of his deep convection by now and rainfall, if any, probably wasn't too severe. Ryan1000 03:43, June 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Bud
Going down fast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:22, June 15, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud
Bud has been smoked. Hopefully flooding from the remnants won't be too bad. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:38, June 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Lol. Where I live in SoCal, we seem to be getting some possible Bud-related clouds, but nothing too shabby. I highly doubt we will receive significant precipitation since the rain will be mainly to the east of us. Southern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico are getting soaked according to the latest radar maps! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:21, June 16, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Another disturbance, south of Mexico, currently at 0/20. -- Roy 25  15:41, June 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * This might be a weak Carlotta due to marginally conducive conditions late week. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:55, June 12, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 20/30. -- Roy 25  15:49, June 13, 2018 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Now invested, and up to 40/50. -- Roy 25  17:52, June 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * If this becomes a category 1, then 2018 is a copy of 2015 but less intense. --GentleEarthquake (Ex-Piper) 18:43, June 13, 2018
 * This will be lucky to reach tropical storm status. SSTs are warm but shear is somewhat strong, and I'm not sure when/if this will move ashore. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:39, June 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now up to 60/60. -- Roy 25  23:30, June 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * NHC notes potential tropical cyclone advisories may be initiated soon. Still at 60/60. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:59, June 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * I don't see this becoming more than a TD to be honest. Don't want to see a name wasted by an epic failure. It will bring impacts to Mexico, but still. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:24, June 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Carlotta is my favorite name on this list, and it would suck if it went to this storm, lol. The models have only brought it up to a 35-50 mph storm, with a pressure ranging from 1008-1000 mbar, which is pretty pathetic. Unfortunately, this storm is heading straight for the Mexican coast, so it would be pretty rude to want it to intensify as much as possible. I just don't want a name-stealer, so it would be best if this storm reaches 35 mph, 45 mph, or even 50 mph. Wouldn't want to go higher, since this will be striking land. T  G  2 0 1 8 16:33, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

As this will affect Mexico, I wouldn't call it a fail even if its only a weak storm, but it's currently at 90%, and NHC says advisories will be issued on a PTC or depression later this afternoon, if intensification trends continue. Ryan1000 17:58, June 14, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four-E
And there it is. ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST... T G  2 0 1 8 20:37, June 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * I don't like the track of this depression (which could become TS Carlotta fairly soon). The NHC forecasts it to move very slowly towards the coast of Mexico, which could lead to this storm causing a lot of flooding and mudslides near the coastline. Landfall with this storm isn't expected until Sunday afternoon. Not good. Ryan1000 22:42, June 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Landfall has been pushed earlier to Saturday morning (CDT), and dissipation is now predicted to occur on Sunday morning. Predicted peak intensity has been revised down to 40 knots, but I'm hoping this actually doesn't become Carlotta as it'll be a waste of a good name. I'm not too sure about the inland rainfall potential given that there's quite a bit of northerly shear moving the thunderstorm activity south and off the coast, so the heavy rain shouldn't extend too far inland. But there will be quite a bit of rain nonetheless for coastal areas of Guerrero. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:29, June 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Carlotta
The third named storm is here. -- Roy 25  17:51, June 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Looks like we have a Calvin/Beatriz style name stealer on our hands. What a shame. Send Help Please (talk) 20:00, June 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * I know right? I hate these storms that just steal a wonderful name off the lists, and go on to troll us all by peaking as an epic failure weak TS storm. This one isn't actually the biggest failure though because it's striking Mexico, and they could receive plenty of impacts there. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:25, June 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * "A surprise during the midnight shift. Tiny Carlotta is stronger and is not moving as anticipated." -- Forecaster Avila, latest forecast discussion. This may cause bigger flooding problems for coastal areas near Acapulco than previously thought. Keep your eyes out... Ryan1000 11:46, June 16, 2018 (UTC)