Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why? rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)

IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Isis retired
Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.)  rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. Ryan1000 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001  leeboy100 My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Middle of Nowhere
Part of a twin set of AOIs in the CPac, along with the one south of Hawaii. It's currently 10% like the other AOI, but this one is located out to the west, closer to the International Date Line, and in the middle of nowhere (hence the title lol). Both this and the other AOI shouldn't become much, IMO.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:22, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * They're both 30% now, and the CPHC is saying conditions could become more favorable for both in a couple days. We could get another CPAC storm out of one of these, maybe even two! :O ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:51, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 60% and the other one is 70%. We might soon have two more named CPAC storms! If we do, we'll be at Pali. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:41, October 2, 2015 (UTC

98C.INVEST
invest'd... here it comes Pali or Oho!  the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:34, October 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * 70%, and the other one is 80%!! O.O God, this CPac season is the equivalent of 2005 in the Atlantic, and it makes sense because this season is also much over the record and it's exactly a decade later. Could we GET 2 STORMS AT ONCE?! I can't believe my eyes!  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now 90%, and the other one is 100%! We're guarenteed one storm now, and almost certainly 2! This is insane! I hope one of these becomes a category 4 (and doesn't do damage)! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 06:30, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * 100%, and the other one's already a tropical depression. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:46, October 3, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight-C
And both of those invests have now developed. This one's not expected to become named, but I expect it to become named anyway, as that happens a lot. Even a weak tropical storm would supplement this ridiculous amount of CPAC named storms. I'll predict 45mph and 999mb. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:17, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * So Pali may come from this tropical depression? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:49, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yep. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I do expect to see Pali out of this TD, but it would only be a weakling if it does so. The forecast doesn't even make it named.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:41, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's pressure actually increased with the new advisory, however the new forecast has it become a TS in 4 days now. Unfortunately though, it would get a WPAC name instead of a CPAC name, so I hope it can strengthen before then. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:40, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I hope so, too. It would be fantabulous if the CPac can manage 9, or even 10 named storms in a given year. Such epic activity.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:27, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * The new forecast weakens it and expects it to become post-tropical. Looks like this was a fail TD. Edit: It managed to regain deep convection, so it could still have a shot. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:48, October 4, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eight-C
And it's no longer tropical. Lol. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:03, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * Totally unexpected, IMO. I was expecting this to possibly become named. Oh well.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:37, October 6, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Southeast of 97C
Just some random epic fail that won't develop, ever. Near 0%.  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:32, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's now 10%, but there's only so many tropical systems you can have in one area, and they'll probably stop it from developing. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 06:38, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Up to 20%, and I actually think it might have a slight shot at this point. Imagine if the depression became named, and this also became a named storm eventually, and we would be up to 10 named storms! In a basin which usually barely gets any storms at all during a given year!  Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:43, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 40%, and this could develop into ANOTHER storm. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:49, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * 10%. Never mind. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:11, October 5, 2015 (UTC)
 * Off the TWO! Oho probably ate it, lol <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:35, October 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm assuming so. There aren't even clouds in the area where it was now. Oh well, we've already doubled the CPAC storm record. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:53, October 7, 2015 (UTC)

99C.INVEST
99 red ballons... (invests) --<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:29, October 4, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: South of Baja
Another epic fail that won't develop, ever. 10/10 on the latest TWO, and upper level winds will destroy it and crush it to pieces. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 04:35, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Actually, it already did. It's the remnants of Marty. Anyway it won't regenerate. Ever. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 06:33, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I didn't really know that since I barely tracked Marty at all. It's up to 20%, but it still won't regenerate. Ever. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 19:45, October 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It says it's Marty's remnants in it's description on the TWO. It would be neat if it managed to regenerate, although the chance is so low. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:51, October 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it's not going to redevelop. Ever. Though I do agree that it would be neat if it did do that, but I just really doubt it. Maybe, once it drops off the TWO, we can say "Goodbye for good, Marty!" <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:34, October 4, 2015 (UTC)


 * And it's down to 10%, Marty won't be returning. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:54, October 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yep, and it's off the TWO. It didn't return. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:34, October 6, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Middle of Nowhere
Out in the middle of the ocean, away from any landmass, there lies this new 10/40 AOI. Possible development is expected over the long run, and it surely does have Nora potential. The TWO also claims it's associated with a tropical wave, yet the "wave" doesn't even appear in the Tropical Weather Discussion. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:34, October 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's 20/60 now. I really hope it's not a 90% bust this time. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:52, October 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * 40/70. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:38, October 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * I do hope it develops. I don't want a huge bust like the other invest was. Surely it does have some Nora potential. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:33, October 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Up to 60/80! I'd be shocked if it busted, as conditions are forecast to be conductive over the next few days or so. Here comes Nora! Also, it's finally being mentioned as a tropical wave in the TWD. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:36, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Up to 90/90! It could be upgraded to a TD in the next 3 hours. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 12:32, October 9, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E
It's here, and already forecast to peak as an 85-kt Category 2. Fingers crossed this thing gives us the record-breaking 8th Category 4... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:08, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * If it can become a cat 3 at least, we'd have 9 cat 3's. With 96E looking to be in favorable conditions in the long run, we might tie 1992's all-time record of 10 majors after all. Ryan1000 20:37, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * New advisory came out, it is still a tropical depression. Hopefully next advisory it will strengthen. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:49, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's convection's more organized now, should be a TS in the next advisory. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:48, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * It came quicker than I expected, but hello new TD! I see it becoming Nora by the time I wake up tomorrow morning. And then, it's pretty possible we may see a large major hurricane in the long term. This TD is one to watch for a potential powerful and epic hurricane. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 02:06, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * The forecast turns it back towards the EPAC basin in 4-5 days, when it has entered the CPAC. Maybe it will do what Oho got so close to achieving and cross from the CPAC to the EPAC basin while tropical! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:27, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nora
Well, Nora is here! Official forecast has it peaking as a strong C1 now. Unless Nora rapidly intensifies, we won't get a C4 out of her. Owen 03:47, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * You made your text a heading again. Fixed it for you. It could become a strong storm still, we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 05:24, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * I don't really think we'll see Nora turn into a Category 4 anymore, but at most, I would say Cat. 3 strength is possible. There's nothing really stopping this thing over the next few days. The NHC's initial forecast sometimes underrates a storm by saying it won't become a major, but then the storm intensifies into one. That could happen with Nora. Um, since C4 is quite the stretch, I would be surprised if it got that far but it still doesn't seem too out of the question. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 05:47, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * It doesn't have the best convective structure, and the forecast peak intensity is decreasing... At this rate it might not even be a hurricane. I hope it at least becomes a category 1 though. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:00, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * looks like Nora  Is Bae couls stall near 140W at the end of the forecast period.--<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:10, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Um, actually Odile, she's expected to hug the 145W boundary instead while it begins to weaken from a hurricane near the end of the forecast. It's pretty much a bit frustrating to see the forecasted peak go down from (formerly C2 strength), and now it's going to only be a C1. -.- Still rooting for at least a C2 though! <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:40, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * LOL, Ryan, I noticed that Owen made his post a heading last night before I went to bed, but I don't know how to fix it, and I thought I'd let our great administrator (you) handle it ;)
 * Anyway's, it's official, Nora is here! Also, I was watching The Weather Channel yesterday, and when it was still a depression, it said that the forecast track took it into the Central Pacific and then back into the East Pacific. I don't know if it is still predicted to take that track, but has that ever happened before? I mean, I know that John of 1994 crossed into the WPac and back into the CPac, but has a storm done that at 140W before?  leeboy100 My Talk! 17:23, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Still absolutely horrible on satellite. It's got to get it's act together or it's going to be a 45 knot fail storm. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:23, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Sorry about the edit conflict, Raindrop. Anyway's, it is possible for Nora to take that track and it's still predicted to, Meanwhile, I'm still curious as to whether a storm has crossed 140W twice before.
 * leeboy100 My Talk! 17:26, October 10, 2015 (UTC) (If I had a nickel for every time I forgot to sign my posts..)
 * I've read somewhere that a storm crossing 140W twice hasn't happened since 1970. This storm could really make history if it does do that, and it'll also be the first storm I've ever seen that crossed 140W twice. Nora is now at 50 mph/1002 mbars and I don't know if it'll even BE a hurricane anymore at this point. Satellite presentation looks quite horrible and if she wants to become a hurricane, she better get her act together soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 21:57, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I didn't have any edit conflict problems, leeboy. I think only whoever starts editing second gets an edit conflict message. Anyway, Nora's winds somehow increased despite the wind field being very small and the horrible satellite presentation. I've now given up hope of a major hurricane and I'm simply hoping for it to cross 140 degrees W twice, a feat I think not yet achieved by a tropical cyclone. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:32, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Nora's now in the CPAC basin. I hadn't tracked any basin crossing storms this year, so when it said "last NHC advisory issued on NORA" I thought it had randomly become post-tropical. It's winds are increasing despite the tropical storm force winds being on only one side of the center, and it's now 60 mph. It's improving on satellite, and at this rate it will still be a weak hurricane. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:25, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * It does that when the center for responsibility of the TC is handed over from the NHC to CPHC. And it's now 65 mph, at this rate a hurricane could come by tonight. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:45, October 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Nora got to 70 mph a while ago, but didn't become a hurricane as the center of circulation then got displaced. It's 45 mph now with a pressure of 1002 mb. It's forecast to last another couple days as a TS before it dissipates. So much for that category 2 they were predicting. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:26, October 13, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nora
its down and out --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  is Joaquin still there?  •  spam goes here ^_^  14:57, October 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's bursts of deep convection somehow managed to cause the system to disrupt itself. :/ It's down to 30 mph, and should dissipate soon. It was fun to have something in the EPAC/CPAC to keep it interesting while waiting for that other invest to develop (which is now 70/90). ~Raindrop57 (talk) 21:19, October 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * It sucks that we didn't see a hurricane out of her. :/ She's down and out now, and it was good to watch. Now all eyes are on the invest about to become the snowman storm (aka Olaf). <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:18, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left:24px;">

Remnants of Nora
...aaaaaand cut. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:01, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

Bye-bye Nora! leeboy100 My Talk! 02:03, October 16, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Southeastern Mexico
On the TWO at 0/20, and it could become something in the long run. Could be Olaf, as the above system is very likely to become a named storm soon. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:38, October 9, 2015 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
10/50 now, it's looking pretty good. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 19:28, October 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It got invest'd when you said that. Assuming we get Nora out of 18-E, this'll be Olaf in the long run. Ryan1000 20:40, October 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * 30/60. This one's got a lot of convection but lacks a circulation of any sort. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:53, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * A tropical wave in the area is being mentioned by the TWD. Anyway, I see it becoming Olaf by early next week or so. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 02:08, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Um, still 30/60, we should see Olaf coming from this though. My bet is a formation by early next week. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 15:43, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ana and Olaf in the same year again? If Erika is replaced with Elsa in the spring, this will be Frozen fans' favorite naming lists. Anyway, staying on topic, Olaf should form out of this and I can see us stopping at Rick again this year like 2009 as long as the activity stays constant through October. November isn't really common for development in the EPac. Owen 16:37, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

looks that the snowman is going to be a monster! --<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:17, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * :O Whoa, that looks like a major hurricane! Hope that becomes true and we see a C4 from Olaf! (Then maybe it's remnant low will reach Alaska and give them snow to build a snowman) ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:20, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * This could be a huge monster hurricane if Odile's links pan out. It'd also be a coincidence if future Olaf brought snow to Alaska, and they could build a snowman (lol). And even without Elsa, these lists could still be Frozen fans' favorite naming lists, because they are the only lists which contain the names of Frozen characters. Having Elsa replacing Erika would be the best thing the NHC would ever do, and I surely hope it happens for an even more Frozen-filled year in 2021. Ana and Elsa in the Atlantic, and Olaf in the Pacific, this naming list would be the absolute favorite among all fans of Frozen. Lastly that movie was released almost 2 years ago, so I can't believe it's still this popular; it must be as popular as Ice Age, Finding Nemo, and other stuff from my childhood. Getting back on topic, this invest is lookin' hella good, and is 20/60 on the latest TWO. I'd love it if it can become a huge monster hurricane eventually. :D <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:11, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure why they decreased the precentage despite it looking good on satellite. I'm also not sure why they haven't increased the 5-day chance to a high risk yet, as it won't be encountering unfavorable conditions. Let the snowman storm exist! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:36, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * The percentage for 48 hours is down to 10%, but it looks like the 5 day outlook has increased (70%). Let's just give it some time to develop, we'll see it become the snowman storm eventually. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 16:43, October 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * 0/70. At one point it was 10/80, but it went back down. Looks like we'll have to wait a few more days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:15, October 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * 10/80 again. I expect to see a tropical depression from this in 3-4 days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:27, October 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * 50/90, but where'd everyone go? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 14:52, October 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * 70/90. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:58, October 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * 90/90! Here comes Olaf the snowman, he should come by tonight! :D `<font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:11, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E
Here. Forecast to become a cat 2 for now. Ryan1000 11:33, October 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * I had a dream last night that this went down to 10/20 o_o --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:24, October 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * Three advisories and it's still a TD. Hoping for RI to category 4 at some point. And I'm glad your dream wasn't real. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 16:05, October 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * Dylan, I'm glad it didn't come true, otherwise it would have been an unexpectedly huge bust. I think that I've dreamt something like that before but it only happens very rarely. Back to the storm, it is still a TD, and could be a hurricane at the end of the forecast. Hoping it gets as strong as a C4, like Raindrop said. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:39, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * Here comes Olaf (or as I'm going to call it the "Frozen blizzard hurricane of doom", okay maybe not.) It's forecast to be a category 2, and could get higher than that. I hope it does no destruction so 'Olaf' can stay on the list longer.  leeboy100 My Talk! 02:08, October 16, 2015 (UTC)
 * This depression has weakened to 25 kts/1007 mbar. I'm starting to become skeptical about that forecast for a hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:54, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * yeah weird that it has weaken,reminds me of Carlos on 2008 when it was expected to strength and instead maintain intensity. Anyways I expect an upper cat 1 or low cat 2. Nothing more. Allanjeffs 04:00, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * Maybe that dream wasn't too far off. In 100% favorable conditions, it weakened. How is that even possible? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:39, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * It finally might be getting it's act together. It's back to 35 mph, and the new advisory is in 1 hour. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:44, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Olaf
And it finally managed to become Olaf after somehow weakening in favorable conditions. Forecast to rapidly intensify, and I hope, and kind of even expect, a category 4 from Olaf. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:58, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) A major still isn't in the forecast from Olaf. A cat 2 is definitely possible, but a 3 or more isn't very likely because conditions will become unfavorable as Olaf eventually turns north in the CPac. Ryan1000 03:02, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Sorry about the edit conflict Ryan. Anyway, the NHC is saying they won't be surprised if it gets stronger then forecast, which is 110 mph, so I think 3 is very possible. 4 might be stretching it though. Also I think Olaf is continuing to organize. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 05:04, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's about time the snowman showed up..................  leeboy100 My Talk! 05:19, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * 50 mph, and forecast to become a major! As long as it keeps RI'ing, then it has a shot at C4 intensity, as the NHC continues to hint at the fact that it may intensify more. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:58, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's about time! It took so long to become named, possibly because of disorganization. With the snowman storm finally showing up, it could become something huge according to the forecast. I won't be shocked to see a near-C5 from him. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:06, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * When I think of the name Olaf, I don't think of the snowman, I think of the Count. Just saying. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:47, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well, it did come first, I just hadn't heard much about it, so I think of Frozen. Anyway, tropical storm Olaf seems to be organizing, and if convection continues wrapping around the center like it is currently it'll be a hurricane soon. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 23:16, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looking at the satellite images on the WunderMap, it looks like the convection is wrapping around the center and forming an eye. It could become a hurricane soon if it wraps fully around. RI, anyone? ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:20, October 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * Olaf looks a lot better than I thought it would've at this time, it has a fairly good shot at being a major now, and even a minimal cat 4 is not out of the question. If it becomes a 4, we'll have 8 cat 4's, an all-time record, and 9 majors. If 97E south of Mexico intensifies quickly into a major in the long run, we would have 10, which would tie 1992 for the highest ever. If 97E becomes Patricia period, we would be tied with 1985 for the second-most active Pacific season on record, after 1992. Although a nice chunk of the activity this year came from the record-breaking CPac, which had 8 named storms, twice the previous record of 4 set in 1982 (which 2015 is currently tied with for the 3rd most active EPac season ever). Ryan1000 01:37, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * The new advisory brings Olaf up to 65 mph, and the cloud tops have cooled a lot since 6 hours ago. Olaf is organizing at an amazing rate now, and I can definitely see a category 4 from Olaf. It's the "snowman with his head knocked off effect" - once the storm gets going it can't be stopped. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:54, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf now appears to have an eye on satellite which is now fully surrounded by deep convection. It's still irregular, but by the next advisory it might be a hurricane. Wow this storm suddenly has organized in the last few hours! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 04:24, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * By the way, here's a couple pics from Wunderground showing it's organization in eight hours. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 05:39, October 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * TS_Olaf_-_1.png
 * TS_Olaf_-_2.png

Hurricane Olaf
For a hurricane that shares its name with a snowman, Olaf really loves the equatorial region:

"At 9.4N, Olaf is the lowest-latitude hurricane formation in the eastern Pacific dataset. Reliable records in the basin go back to about 1971."

Impressive going, Olaf. Jake52 (talk) 10:50, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Not half bad, all things considered. Still expected to be a major, but the peak intensity is still expected to be just below cat 4. Ryan1000 12:16, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * The peak intensity's gone up however. And I find that very amusing that the snowman storm became a hurricane at a record low latitude. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:25, October 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * Category 2 per ATCF. EP, 19, 2015101900,, BEST, 0, 96N, 1350W, 85, 978, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 10, 1008, 300, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:11, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now confirmed by NHC, but they still refuse to raise the peak of Olaf to cat 4. Hopefully it reaches that, it'd be cool to see this year break yet another record. Ryan1000 04:47, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Uh, last time I checked snowmen didn't usually like low-latitude areas. If Olaf bombs out in intensity I'm going to start calling him the "Abombinable Snowman".  Sorry, I couldn't resist the pun :P leeboy100 My Talk! 05:24, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * 12z ATCF bumps Olaf to a high-end Cat 2 (95 kts/970 mbar), and a small eye recently became apparent on visible satellite imagery. With a little luck, we could have a major with the next advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:00, October 19, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Olaf
...and a little luck happened! Latest advisory brings Olaf to 100 kts/967 mbar, and it's finally forecast to reach Category 4 strength (125 kts, to be precise). Fingers crossed! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:49, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf's got a nice eye now, I'm not surprised. Olaf is now the southernmost forming major hurricane in the EPAC basin, reaching major hurricane status at 9.9 degrees north. The guidance also is keeping it more westward then north as time passes. The snowman storm is trying to stay as far from snow as possible. Not bad, Olaf! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:05, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think it has a very nice structure for a near-equatorial storm. Ep201519_sat.jpg

<p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,0,0, 0.8);">The EPac's on fire!!!

15:52, October 19, 2015 (UTC)

It's looking like it might be a category 4 now. We'll see what the next advisory says. Also, the T-number of 6.0 estimates winds of 132 mph, category 4. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 18:13, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * According to ATCF, a record has been broken. EP, 19, 2015101918,, BEST, 0, 100N, 1382W, 115, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 15, 15, 1010, 270, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, OLAF, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, If this intensity holds (or better yet, increases) for the next advisory, we have our record-breaking 8th Category 4. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:46, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Olaf looks amazing on sattelite imagery. It might even have a chance at cat 5 at the rate this goes. The abombinable snowman actually would be a pretty good way to describe this hurricane right now. Ryan1000 18:45, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure about a Category 5, simply because EWRCs tend to get in the way, but I'm still quite impressed by Olaf. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:48, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Apparently my nickname stuck, this is the abombinable snowman. It is now a cat. 4 and I wouldn't be surprised if it became a cat. 5.  leeboy100 My Talk! 20:47, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yay! The record of category 4's in one season has been broken! Interestingly, there were no category 5's this season, and a category 5 now is unlikely unless Olaf continues to RI up to category 5, which I doubt, although there's a slight chance. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:38, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, the eye seems to have filled in, looks like an eyewall replacement cycle. Category 5's pretty much a no unless it's just temporary that the eye's filled in. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 22:47, October 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Woah, it was pretty shocking how it just managed to gather so much strength since yesterday. At this rate, we might even see a C5. :O A C5 does seem possible, if the eyewall replacement cycle you describe ends soon and is temporary. I'm quite impressed at how much strength Olaf put on. Call him "Monster Snowman" :P <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:30, October 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * It looks like it was indeed temporary, the eye's becoming more visible again, and it looks to perhaps be continuing to strengthen. Yes, Olaf is really the monster storm! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:35, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah Dylan, an ERC also got in the way of Jimena becoming a 5 earlier this year, but it's slightly possible since Olaf still has 2-3 more days until conditions become unfavorable for further development. However, if Olaf manages to become a cat 5, I think the abombinable snowman would actually be an understatement for this thing. President Snow? That seems better. Ryan1000 02:40, October 20, 2015 (UTC)

< Seeing as Jimena has nearly always (1979 being the exception) been used for storms that always end up either the second strongest or the third strongest of the season...I'm guessing Olaf may end up reaching the peak. Just a guess, though. Jake52 (talk) 08:07, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * First CPHC advisory out: 150 mph/938 mbar. Predicted to go to 155 mph before it stops. Jake52 (talk) 09:00, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hopefully it briefly gets to 160 mph, it's be nice to see a fish Cat 5 this late in the season. Either way, this thing is beautiful to watch and this is also the strongest incarnation of Olaf since 1979. Ryan1000 11:19, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Fun fact: this is the second-strongest incarnation of Olaf worldwide (well... actually, it already was upon becoming a Category 2, but still). Only the 2005 SPAC storm was stronger. The core convection appears to be warming ever so slightly, so I don't know if this Olaf will become a Category 5 like its 2005 incarnation did, but still, what a storm! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:21, October 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * I hope Olaf becomes a cat. 5. It would be nice to see a category 5 fish/snowman hybrid storm. Also, with Olaf, this season is now the third most active on record in the EPac (tied with 1982) with 23 named storms. If Twenty-E becomes Patricia, we will break 1982's record and instead tie with 1985 as the second most active EPac season. This season is incredible!  leeboy100 Boo! 20:05, October 20, 2015 (UTC) (Grrrr, of course I forget to sign......again)
 * <font face="comic sans ms">"Oh sh*t, the snowman's melting!" . It's only a Cat. 3 now. Also, if the quote is not on comic sans, you are probably running linux! <font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog  19:47, October 21, 2015 (UTC) (As always, i also forgot to sign)

AOI: GFS California run
Things could get epic if this turns out to be true. I don't completely buy it yet. Owen 16:58, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

are you shure its not an ET system? if its a tropical one. gg california. edit: dropped for 12z --<font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:06, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Looks ET to me. Still a big storm for California and would be interesting nonetheless. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 17:19, October 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * The title of this thread made me interested for a bit until I saw that the storm is headed for the San Francisco area and NorCal, and won't do much to SoCal (the place where I live). I also think this is an extratropical system, because it's like impossible for tropical systems to impact our state! I don't buy it either, unless it is an extratropical storm. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 22:01, October 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * I believee there have been two storms that impacted California. Can´t look now maybe later for info, and I believe one was a hurricane.Allanjeffs 21:57, October 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * There was a hurricane that impacted SoCal in 1858 (I believe), and in 1933, there was the Long Beach tropical storm. Those were the storms you were most likely referring to. Anyway, this has got to be an extratropical storm. It is like impossible for hurricanes to strike San Francisco. Waters are way too cold and conditions are always too unfavorable up there. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:15, October 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Wave (October 1 - October 17)
Continued from the discussion here. It's here in this basin now, and we'll see what eventually comes from this. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:15, October 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was located only a bit west of the AOI, and this was actually a completely separate wave. It's no longer on the TWD, so it has dissipated. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:03, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

(What Steve and Raindrop were discussing before the AOI header was put up)
 * Is this the 0/30 AOI that I see on the 5 day outlook? If it is then we can make a new heading. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:58, October 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * You're right. The tropical wave is actually near the western edge of the AOI, but I still think the tropical wave is causing a lot of the activity. It's 0/40 currently and we might see "Patricia" by next week. (Update 10/17/2015: Actually this was a separate tropical wave that was just a bit west of the AOI. The wave itself has dissipated now, but the AOI is still here.) <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:42, October 16, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Southeastern Mexico
See above. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 00:42, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's up to 0/50. Hopefully this will become the first named storm to be tracked from it's origin as a tropical wave! ~Raindrop57 (talk) 13:40, October 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * 0/70. I think this is the first high risk area not on the two day outlook since Jimena. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 01:45, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * 10/80, yet not on the two day outlook. Odd. Anyway, this should be Patricia at some point, I expect in about 4 days. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 05:48, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * This might surprise you, but this AOI was actually not part of the tropical wave, it was completely separate. Anyway, it's up to 20/80 and I believe it has a lot of potential to become Patricia. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 18:03, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wait, really? :P Oh well. Anyway, this should still be Patricia, tropical wave or not. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:01, October 17, 2015 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invest'ed. It's got a good amount of convection right now, so it could form sooner then expected. Or it could do what Olaf did and lose all it's convection before redevloping a couple days later. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 20:29, October 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * 30/80. Along with large amounts of convection, a circulation is developing, and it might form in two days at this rate. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:19, October 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * Back down to 20/80, but it's slow movement near the Mexico coastline doesn't look very promising. Flooding is almost a guarantee with this one. Ryan1000 12:16, October 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * 70/90! --<font face="Comic Sans MS"> HurricaneOdile |  drop something in the box  •  is Joaquin still there?  •  spam goes here ^_^  19:21, October 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * 80/90. It's satellite organization is pretty good right now. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 00:04, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * This invest should be a depression by tomorrow or so, and it could be Patricia by tomorrow night also. It looks like a potentially major flooding threat for Mexico; thus I don't like the looks of this thing. I wouldn't be surprised if future-Patricia gets a large death toll, and possibly a good-sized damage bill once it's all said and done, due to all the potential for flooding in Central America. <font face="Trebuchet MS"> Steve820  ( Wanna Chat?  •  Stalk My Contribs  •  ✉  ) 01:35, October 20, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depession Twenty-E
Well, it's a tropical depression now, and the forecast doesn't look good. The forecast of a category 2 hurricane hitting Mexico means we might be seeing the most damaging storm of the year, and if it becomes stronger then forecast like many storms this year have, this could have a shot at retirement even. This is going to be a bad storm for Mexico... ~Raindrop57 (talk) 15:13, October 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Could maybe tie the major record with 1992 as a cat 3. Get ready for Patricia, guys!!! <font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog  19:35, October 20, 2015 (UTC) (forgot to sign again)

Tropical Storm Patricia
It's now named, and still a dangerous threat to Mexico. Hopefully it doesn't do too much damage if it insists on making landfall. ~Raindrop57 (talk) 02:48, October 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * Beat me by half a second. XD Forecast peak remains at 85 kts, but could be stronger if RI takes place (hopefully it doesn't!) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:50, October 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * With Patricia now being named, 2015 now ties with 1985 (which also used this naming list) for the second-most-active Pacific hurricane season on record in terms of named storms. Only 1992 had more. We'd need 4 more storms to tie 1992, which probably won't happen since October is almost over, but still, this was an amazing year, especially for the CPac, which got twice as many named storms as the previos record most-active CPac season, 1982, did. Ryan1000 02:58, October 21, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado...


 * EPAC
 * Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise.
 * Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager.
 * Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement.
 * Dolores: 0% - It became respectably strong, but if there were any impacts, they were negligible.
 * Enrique: Fail% - Él es el perdedor.
 * Felicia: % - Gets an F-.
 * Guillermo: 4% - Hawaii has requested retirement of storms that have threatened them without ultimately doing any harm (see Kenneth '05, Daniel '06), but if last year's Iselle wasn't retired, Guillermo doesn't stand a chance.
 * Hilda: 3% - See Guillermo, though it was nice to see the EPAC's first-ever Hurricane Hilda, especially by such a wide margin.
 * Ignacio: 0% - Long-lived and powerful hurricane, but remained away from land. Any peripheral effects in Hawaii were likely negligible at best.
 * Jimena: 0% - Ignacio Plus.
 * Kevin: 0% - Not the epic fail it could have been, but becoming stronger than expected doesn't cut it for retirement.
 * Linda: 23% - Remnants caused the worst flooding disaster in Utah's history, but if 1983's Octave and last year's Norbert didn't get retired, then Linda probably won't either.
 * Marty: 3% - Wasn't much different from Carlos.
 * Nora: 0% - Didn't quite fail but was underwhelming nonetheless.


 * CPAC
 * Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry)
 * Halola: 5% - Gets props for becoming only the second CPAC-borne storm ever to make it to Japan, but effects there were rather light.
 * Iune: -4% - It failed miserably.
 * Kilo: 0% - Persistent and triumphant, but those qualities don't merit retirement.
 * Loke: 1% - Caused blustery weather at the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, but the area came out unscathed.
 * Malia: 0% - Fail, but it did extend this year's CPAC record to 6 named storms.
 * Niala: 0% - Didn't hit land and wasn't terribly strong, but dear God, at this rate we'll have more than double the previous record for CPAC named storms set in 1982.
 * Oho: HolyCrap% - Proved once and for all that the CPAC runs on batteries this year. Certainly an interesting storm to track, if one without many impacts.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

The Steve has spoken:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))

EPac:


 * Andres:  0%  - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise.


 * Blanca: <font color="#77B">2.5%  - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there.


 * Carlos: <font color="#359">5%  - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country.


 * Dolores:  0%  - It did a nice job at the major part, but impacts, if any, were meager. Baja and SoCal shouldn't get much either.
 * Enrique:  0%  - See you in 2021!
 * Felicia:  0%  - Actually, it deserves lower than an F-. It gets a Z. Yeah, that's right, a Z! What an extreme epic fail that deserves a place in the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing!
 * Guillermo:  0%  - Other than Hawaiian surf, this didn't cause much impacts other than spinning fish out in the middle of the Pacific ocean.
 * Hilda:  0%  - Hawaii never got much from her.
 * Ignacio:  0%  - Completely spared Hawaii from impacts.
 * Jimena:  0%  - Well...she was impressive to track, and lasted a long time, but she'll likely return in 2021.
 * Kevin:  0%  - As far as I know, it didn't affect land at all.
 * Linda: <font color="#AAC">1%  - Out here in SoCal, she did channel in some moisture and it also produced minor impacts along the Baja coast. But sorry Linda, you'll most likely stay.
 * Marty: <font color="#AAC">1%  - Impacts to Mexico weren't that much, so he'll stay for next time.
 * Nora:  0%  - Land was never affected by her.
 * Olaf: ? - Predictions will be released once it has dissipated.

CPac:


 * Ela:  0%  - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin.


 * Halola:  0%  - Also failed to affect land.


 * Iune:  0%  - Never in a million years.
 * Kilo:  0%  - Got very powerful and it was also a long-lasting beast, being alive for as long as 3 weeks, but lack of impacts = see you next time!
 * Loke:  0%  - Lack of impacts mean it's staying.
 * Malia:  0%  - Again, failed to do bad things to land. And it is another living proof that Mother Nature is making the CPac record-energized this year.
 * Niala:  0%  - The crazy basin produced yet another one, and again, it did not impact any human beings.
 * Oho:  0%  - Another storm in the crazy record-breaking basin which failed to affect land. It did become a moderate hurricane, though.

--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Puffle's retirements
<font face="Helvetica Neue"> Welp, here I go:

Legend

(Retirement colors: <font color="Silver">Fail%, 0% , <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A3">27% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (Credit to Steve)

†Andres:  0%  - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh.

†‡Blanca: <font color="#77B">2.5%  - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet...

¤‡Carlos: <font color="#4A3">27%  - This one has a higher chance at retirement, Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for another "Category 5 hype". Killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. #CarlosPLZ

Dolores:  0%  - FAIL... I'm sorry Dolores, Andres is way better looking than you

‡Enrique:  0%  - Sadly I would've expected a major from a storm named after my middle name. 3rd place of #NameWaste2015. Not tied 2nd because of the ‡.

Depression Felicia:  Fail%  - Nominee and winner of #NameWaste2015.

Gullimero -  Fail%  - these storms keep getting more fail-prone every time. Can't wait to see how much of a FAIL Hilda will be (despite that being my sister's name)

†Hilda -  0%  - Actually, forget that, Hilda you surprised me.

Eight-E - No. Just no. Why is this here? IT'S NOT NAMED!!!

†Ignacio - <font color="#AAC">1%  - Remnants could affect Northern Canada. I'll stay here.

†Jimena - ??? - Currently active.

Kevin -  Fail%  - 2nd place for #NameWaste2015. There better be no more fails after this.

Linda - <font color="#77B">2%  - Welp it existed but failed to be with the other C4s.

Marty - <font color="#AAC">1%  - Well, it existed at least.

Nora -  <font face="comic sans ms">Bae% <font face="comic sans ms"> - Nora is bae. Bae will do nothing. Nora is unbae. Bae tag is for times i want to be funny.

Olaf - ? - Active. The <font face="comic sans ms">snowman is probably going to be a snow monster. Better call this one "Marshmallow". LOL.

CPac Names

Ela -  Fail%  - No comment

‡Halola - See my WPac retirements.

Iune -  Fail%  - Wait, what?

†Kilo -  0%  - WHAA? A C4?! IN THE CPAC?! Wow. Still active but is a fish.

Loke -  Fail%  - Another fail, but it broke a record for most CPac names used.

And other CPAC storms I won't bother listing.

†Impressive to see

‡Gained peak intensity more than once

¤Retirement possible, but not garunteed

<font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog

Odile's Retirements
<font face="comic sans ms">odile's fun retirement chances with memes

(Retirement colors 💩%,  NaN%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (thanks steve for the colors)

ayy lmao its my turn!

Andres:  NaN%  - meh.

Blanca:  NaN%  - as puffle says above.

Carlos: <font color="#70A"> carlos plz%  <font color="#4A0">25%  -  CARLOS PLZ! AIN'T NOBODY HAS TIME FO' THAT! still. carlos plz. can get a tiny shot at retirement because of the 17 million pesos on luxury yacht damage

Dolores:  15% - caused a lot of flood damage in the San Diego-Tijuana area.

Enrique:  NaN%  - HAHAHAHAHA will be suprised if it gets retired. just sayin'

F ail elicia: 💩% - [insert poop emoji here]

Eight-E:  NaN%  - well we nearly broke a record.

Guillermo:  NaN%  - fun to see an hurricane after fails.

Hilda:  NaN%  - OH NO! NO MORE FAILS... 😠😡😠😡😠

Eleven-E:  NaN%  - NO WAI!

Ignacio:  NaN%  - REALLY. #StopEPacFails

Jimena:  NaN%  - deez nutz we nearly got a C5 here

Kevin  the minion : 💩% [insert poop emoji here]

Linda: <font color="#22B">7.5%  - Linda did nothing, buuuuuut...

Marty: <font color="#359">5%  - the remnants of it did quite some damage in northen mexico.

Nora:  <font color="#F0F">Bae%   NaN%  - bae will not do anything.

cpac

Ela:  NaN%  - WORST. STORM. EVER.

Halola: <font color="#AAC">1%  - well it was a nearly record-breaking storm. i'll stay here. see ya in a looooooooooooooooooong time!

Iune:  NaN%  - wat

Kilo:  NaN%  - noice nice to see a C4 in the CPac!

L<strike style="font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;">I oke:  NaN%  - meh...

Malia:  NaN%  - ayy lmao a fish

Niala:  NaN%  - HOLY. WHAT. THE. SEASON.

Oho:  NaN%  - no comment...

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC)

Now it is time for my predictions:


 * 1) Andres - 1% - Andres was a true early surprise, and kudos to it for becoming the westernmost May major. While its remnant moisture did bring unseasonable rainfall to Phoenix and cause some power outages in Colorado, these have not been described as extreme. Therefore, I believe Andres will stay.
 * 2) Blanca - 2% - I am impressed that Blanca was able to become the earliest 2nd EPAC hurricane in general and reach the intensity it did. Its remnants brought some wave action to Puerto Vallarta and caused quite a few power outages. However, most of these were fixed within a day. Also, while SoCal did see some flooding from ex-Blanca, most of the rainfall was beneficial for the infamous drought there. Consequently, Blanca should stay as well.
 * 3) Carlos - 6% - Carlos was a little worse than either Andres or Blanca. It downed some trees and billboards around Acapulco. In addition, it sank the Bellísima luxury yacht and killed someone from falling metal. Nevertheless, most of the flooding was not widespread, and there do not seem to be extreme destruction reports from Carlos. As a result, the $1.1 million (2015 USD) price tag should not be enough for retirement.
 * 4) Ela - 0% - It was cool to see the CPAC come alive in the middle of July. But Ela did zilch to land, so you know the drill.
 * 5) Halola - TBA - Still Active
 * 6) Iune - 0% - Aside from being the earliest 3rd named CPAC storm, what did Iune do?
 * 7) Dolores - 1% - Like Andres, it was amazing to see Dolores unexpectedly become a Category 4 so quickly. Most of its impacts so far have been from its associated moisture and not the storm itself. Sure, SoCal saw some incredible rainfall (namely LA and San Diego!) from this that was "historic", but most of the precipitation will be beneficial for the area. As a matter of fact, a persistent wildfire in Cajon Pass was exhausted because of ex-Dolores's moisture. So, Dolores, you are staying put, too.
 * 8) Enrique - 0% - Enrique did surprise me with his persistence against his environment, and even became a tropical storm for a second time. But while Iglesias may have stolen Frank (1992)'s 8th storm ribbon, he did not harm land in the process.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:05, July 22, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan Grand is back:

EPac: CPac: There you go. Ryan1000 20:39, July 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres - 0% - Became pretty strong for such an early-season storm, but it caused no direct damage on land, so it won't be retired.
 * Blanca - 3% - Earliest 2nd (major) hurricane of any EPac season on record, and also the earliest Baja California landfall as well, but overall damage wasn't too severe; if anything the rainfall from it's remnants helped ease up California's drought a little.
 * Carlos - 5% - Slightly worse than Blanca, and Mexico was fortunate Carlos didn't get past category 1 strength as it neared the coastline, but this was no Manuel. It was modest at most, and will be coming back again in 2021.
 * Dolores - 0% - Slightly weaker than Andres, and als a bit farther east, but overall impacts from surf were minor at most.
 * Enrique - 0% - Fail, but at least he didn't fail as bad as Failicia.
 * Failicia - Pun% - << See the name.
 * Guillermo - 0% - Steered well clear of Hawaii, with no known damage or deaths.
 * Hilda - 0% - Did nothing notable to Hawaii, but it was still nice to see it become the first hurricane hilda ever.
 * Ignacio - 0% - Missed Hawaii well to the north, and won't be retired.
 * Jimena - 0% - Didn't affect land.
 * Kevin - 0% - Didn't expect it to fight that much, but it won't be retired anyways.
 * Linda - 5% - It's a real shame that this storm couldn't go without impact before dying...but 1 death and a little damage from surf won't cut the bill. And the extratropical flooding in Utah doesn't cut it for retirement either. It's also the only major hurricane this year that didn't become a cat 4 as well.
 * Marty - 1% - Brought some coastal flooding to parts of Mexico, but it was nothing that they haven't seen before.
 * Nora - 0% - If only it became a hurricane...
 * Olaf - (Likely) 0% - Probably won't affect land, but by becoming the season's 8th category 4 hurricane, Olaf broke a 4-way tie at 7 cat 4's between 1992, 1993, last year, and this year for the most cat 4's ever recorded in one season. That's impressive.
 * Patricia - ?? - May cause some damage to southern Mexico. If it does, this could have a shot, but we'll see.
 * Ela - 0% - Nice early start for the CPac, but nothing to speak of regarding impacts.
 * Halola - 1% - Lasted quite a while and eventually made it to Japan, causing 1.2 million in crop damage with no deaths. Not nothing, but not enough either.
 * Iune - 0% - See Ela.
 * Kilo - 0% - It was one of the top 10 longest-lived tropical cyclones ever observed, but it didn't cause noticeable impacts on land.
 * Loke - 0% - Didn't harm land, but damn, 5 CPac named storms in one season. That's a new record. In your face 1982.
 * Malia - 0% - Aside from extending our (already record-setting) CPac named storm count from 5 to 6, there's nothing else to say here.
 * Niala - 0% - Spared Hawaii fortunately, but got us to 7 CPac storms in this season.
 * Oho - 0% - Did not hit Hawaii, but Eight. Central. Pacific. Named. Storms. In. One. Season. Is. Just. Unbelievable.

I could have sworn I already made one of these. Oh, well. Here's mine.

EPac: CPac: leeboy100 Katrina 2005-2015 22:55, August 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres- 0%: Fun to track and didn't hit land. Nice storm, but it won't be retired
 * Blanca- 1%: Major hurricane that did cause damage, but not enough to be retired.
 * Carlos- 5%: One death and $1.1 million, again, it's not going anywhere.
 * Dolores- 0%: Again, an impressive storm, and minimal damage
 * Enrique- 0% Nope.
 * Felicia- 0% Bye Felicia, see you in 2021. What a fail.
 * Guillermo- 0% majorly hyped, but wound up doing nothing much
 * Hilda- 0% See Delores, except it caused no damage.
 * Ignacio: 0% Didn't affect land, but affected my appetite for nachos (sorry, I've made too many nacho jokes haven't I?)
 * Jimena: 0% Fun to track and lasted a long time, but it's not going anywhere
 * Kevin: 0% I, unlike others on this wiki, do not consider Kevin a fail, because it was heavily sheared. It tried hard and fought with the shear but didn't make it, so it's not going anwhere.
 * Linda: 1% It managed to cause one death.
 * Marty: 0% It was a hurricane, but didn't affect land.
 * Nora: 0%- Not a fail, but didn't hit land
 * Snowman: Currently active
 * Ela- 0%: Well, it existed
 * Halola- 1%: Did nothing in the CPac but crossed into the WPac and hit Japan, causing $1.2 million. Still Japan has been hit by many storms way worse than this, I doubt they'll even remember it.
 * Iune:-0%: Meh, at least it didn't do damage
 * Kilo: 0% Well, well. Kilo is finally dead and is one of the longest-lived storms on record. But, hey if John in 1994 wasn't retired, then Kilo won't be either. See you in whenever, I guess.......................
 * Loke- 0% It didn't hit land, but it broke the record for most named storms in the CPac.
 * Malia: 0%. Other than extending our record, it didn't do much.
 * Niala: 0% See Malia, but it was a bit more impressive
 * Oho: 0.1% Silly, Oho. You aren't supposed to get to British Coulbia or Alaska, remnants or not. Unless you're a typhoon. Ahem.
 * Delores? Dolores* <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle  <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  15:53, September 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Whoops, my bad. I fixed it. Although, coincidentally the name Dolores was mispelled the exact same way on the naming list in 1991! So apparently I'm not alone.   leeboy100 My Talk! 23:29, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

Raindrop's retirements (Based 100% on rainfall amounts - just kidding) - With interestingness ratings!
Eastern Pacific: Central Pacific: It's about time I post mine:
 * Andres - 0% - Quite an amazing A storm. Almost as good as Amanda last year. Great start to the season! But it never hit anything, so it's staying. Interestingness (Ins.) A
 * Blanca - 0.2% - It became a category 4 twice, which was impressive. It made landfall, but minimal damages means no retirement. Ins. A+
 * Carlos - 2% - Carlos affected a lot of the coast of Mexico. However, damage was only $1.1 million, it should be staying. Ins. B-
 * Dolores - 0% - Another category 4 that hit nothing. It didn't last very long. Ins. A-
 * Enrique - 0% - The first EPAC storm this year that was not a hurricane. It lasted a good amount of time and became a tropical storm twice, and no damage. Ins. C
 * Failicia - -1% - Epic failure of a storm. It almost didn't form, then decided to steal a name. And it didn't hit anything. Ins. F
 * Gulliermo - 0% - A category 2 hurricane that could have done damage to Hawaii but weakened before reaching it. Ins. B
 * Hilda - 0% - Became a category 4, defying forecasts, which was amazing. And it didn't hit anything. Ins. A
 * Ignacio - 0% - It didn't hit anything, but it's rapid intensification and re-intensifying into a hurricane at high latitudes was amazing. Ins. A+
 * Jimena - 0% - A beautiful hurricane that became powerful and lasted a long time, and hit nothing. Ins. A+
 * Kevin - 0% - It did it's best against the wind shear it was in, but it was too much for it to become a hurricane. No land effects. Ins. C
 * Linda - 0.1% - A hurricane that existed, became a major, and dissipated in under a week. Did effect land a bit, but $30,000 in damages is nothing. Ins. B+
 * Marty - 0% - A storm that breifly became a hurricane and managed to move near Mexico without doing significant damage. Ins. B-
 * Nora - 0% - It was something to track, and became a strong tropical storm. Not something that will be remembered though. Ins. C
 * Olaf - Snowman% - Currently Active.
 * Ela - 0% - The first storm in the Central Pacific. That's about it. Ins. D-
 * Halola - 1% - Managed to make it all the way to Japan, becoming a typhoon 2 times on the way - and did almost nothing. An amazing storm though. Ins. A
 * Iune - -1% - It was a tropical storm that is not memorable. Ins. F
 * Kilo - 0% - A category 4 in the Central Pacific, an unusual thing. Then after becoming a category 4 it became a typhoon and lasted over 3 weeks total. It never hit anything until it was long extratropical, and there were no notable impacts from that. Ins. A+
 * Loke - 0% - A hurricane in the Central Pacific, more interesting then a weak tropical storm in the central pacific. Also had an erratic northward track. It also hit nothing. It ALSO set the record for storms forming in the CPAC. Ins. B-
 * Malia - 0% - At least it became a tropical storm. Ins. D-
 * Niala - 0% - This was fun to track, and defied forecasts some. They also mentioned that it had been stronger then thought in the discussion, so it might be upgraded to 70 or 75 mph post-season. No land effects. Ins. B-
 * Oho - 0% - Well, it almost managed to enter the EPAC basin. Ins. A-

EPAC CPAC I'll update this if any other storms form through the remainder of the season. Owen 01:07, October 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres: 0% - Great start to the season, but he was a fishie.
 * Blanca: 1% - Minor damages only, she's staying.
 * Carlos: 3% - It could've been way worse for Mexico.
 * Dolores: 0% - Again, nice Cat4, but no damages or fatalities.
 * Enrique: 0% - Nope.
 * Felicia: 0% - Let's see...NOPE.
 * Guillermo: 1% - Don't count on it, but Hawaii is unpredictable.
 * Hilda: 0% - Another Category 4 monster, but no major effects.
 * Ignacio: 1% - Amazing hurricane that traveled at high latitudes, his awesomeness gives him 1%.
 * Jimena: 0% - Beautiful hurricane, but like Andres, Dolores, and Hilda, she's gonna be back in 2021.
 * Kevin: 0% - He tried the best he could, but he'll also be back.
 * Linda: 1% - She may have contributed a bit to the Utah floods, but the damages aren't enough.
 * Marty: 0% - I highly doubt it, although there were some effects on Mexico.
 * Nora: 0% - No.
 * Ela: 0% - She may have become the third earliest tropical storm to form in the CPac but that doesn't warrant removal off of the naming list.
 * Halola: 5% - She made it all the way to Japan and produced some damage, but not quite enough.
 * Iune: 0% - No.
 * Kilo: 1% - Another impressive hurricane, but he isn't going to be retired either.
 * Loke: 0% - Became a hurricane, but didn't go anywhere.
 * Malia: 0% - Nah.
 * Niala: 0% - No.
 * Oho: 1% - He gets a percentage point for impressiveness.

Post-season changes
Andres's TCR was released a while ago, and Felicia's was completed last week. Andres's winds were reduced slightly from 130 kts to 125 (no advisory had Andres at 130 kts, but it was mentioned in one of the discussions that Andres was believed to have peaked at that intensity in between advisories), but its pressure was nudged downward from 938 mbar to 937. Nothing new came with Felicia's TCR. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:00, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * I wish Jimena was a little stronger operationally, but it's very unlikely post-season reanalysis will upgrade it to a 5 like it could've been, but it could be upped slightly to 155 mph in either one of its peaks. I don't think there's any other storm this year that I have hopes for being upgraded in reanalysis (as of yet). Ryan1000 19:07, September 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * 8-E, Enrique's TCR are out. <font face="Arial"> the destructive  Hurricane Odile  •  of  •  2014  20:21, September 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Looks like CPHC TCRs won't come out until 2017 at this point.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:30, October 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Guillermo is out. Peak intensity raised to 95 kts/967 mbar, meaning it came just shy of major hurricane status. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:07, October 10, 2015 (UTC)

PMC (my fake hurricane center) has released TCR for F ail elicia, Downgraded to Depression Felecia. (Kept the name.) Argh. forgot to sign...<font face="Product Sans" color="#000001">Puffle •  <font face="Product Sans">Talk  <font face="Product Sans">Blog  19:29, October 21, 2015 (UTC)

162MC has lowered Andres to 936 mb. Blanca at 150 mph. Ela becoming a TS before crossing 140°W. Dolores down to 125 mph C3. Enrique up to 60 mph. Felicia to a depression. Guillermo to a C3. Jimena to 155 mph. Kevin to 50 mph. Nora to a C1 <p style="text-shadow: 4px 4px 2px rgba(250,0,0, 0.8);">The EPac's on fire!!! 19:37, October 21, 2015 (UTC).