Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

July
Has begun but i'm still bored and waiting for something to come. Ryan1000 01:18, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Hey! We still got Arlene out there! Andrew444 01:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ah, sorry Andrew. It's probrably going to die out anyways. If you want to put last advisory issued on the Archive, then fine... Ryan1000 02:26, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah July, the month where I wont have internet for 3 weeks. Have fun without me everyone! (I leave on the 4th and come back on the 24th) Yqt1001 02:33, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * And here's a warm welcoming to the 2012 forum(I just felt like making it early). Ryan1000 04:16, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression Arlene
Okay... the NHC is giving the remnant low of Tropical Depression Arlene a near 0% chance of forming. I don't think it will because post-Arlene has to face mountains. Andrew444 13:18, July 1, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Near Puerto Rico
This was a pleasant surprise. This is apparently a wave interacting with a trough. They're giving it 0%, but I think the reason that they're mentioning it is because there is model support for the northern part of the wave to split in the W. Carib., form, and either hit Cuba and the US or hit Cuba and wander away. Darren 23 Edits 15:43, July 2, 2011 (UTC)

Well, if the AOI hits the U.S., it would be nice to see. Andrew444 20:55, July 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * This isn't really the time of the year when (catastrophic) hurricanes hit the U.S, or anywhere, but it's worth developing, we could use some activity. The tropics have gone into a slumber since Arlene, but it won't last for more than one or two weeks, I'd say. Ryan1000 21:09, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now..it's gone. Andrew444 01:31, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * That was a bit faster than I expected. Yqt1001 02:00, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not gone... there's just no absolute way it's gonna form in the next 48 hours. I've got a feeling it's gonna form in 96-144 hrs. Darren 23 Edits 02:02, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don't write this system off yet. Well, I'm likely not going to be on the forum for
 * the 4th, so see you guys on the 5th if this system is still worth watching. OWEN2011 20:38, July 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not going to develop in the near future(24-48 hours), but 5 days to a week from now, we could have Bret on our hands. It's future is looking is looking a little grim, but it will take some time for development. Ryan1000 02:33, July 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Massive curved deep convection (as of now) looks very promising. I'm going with formation within about 48 hours. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  00:31, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nah, it's only brief. It's not even mentioned on the TWO, nor will it be. It will have to persist for a couple of days as it heads west-northwest for it to fully develop. I will watch out for Bret several days from now, but not tomorrow. Ryan1000 03:12, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It doesn't matter really much if it goes on TWO or not IMO. A lot of time NHC is slow on storms like these, remember 93L, it formed out of thin air and got quite organized for a while, prompting NHC to skip to 30%. As of now, it is exhibiting deep convection and a curved banding to the south and east, and wind shear is marginally favorable for development tomorrow. It is over warm ocean, who know what it might become of. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  04:33, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * This isn't normally the time of year killer hurricanes affect the U.S, but some July storms have done that... Dennis and Emily of 2005 were the last two... Before that there's 1996's Bertha, before that there's the 1916 major hurricane in Alabama, and there were a few June storms like 1966's Alma and 1957's Audrey that were also rather bad starters. What worries me a little more is it's track, either through southern Florida into the Gulf, or roll up the east coast and head out to sea. I don't like what it looks like as of now, but will it intensify fast enough? This storm is looking somewhat threatening as of now. If it can hold onto it's looks for some more time then (Bret) might just be able to cause some trouble. Ryan1000 05:51, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, a US landfall could happen from Future Bret. Since 2009, only three storms have hit (Claudette, Ida, and Bonnie). Could this be the fourth? Andrew444 12:07, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it fell down again. It appears it's undergoing interaction with some shear and dry air, which will hinder it as it slowly heads WNW. I am watching out for Bret, but it isn't going to form right now. Ryan1000 16:30, July 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Aaaand it's gone, pretty much. I can hardly see this thing on the sattelite imagery, and it's barely hanging on as a wave. It's slowly heading west, but the chances of redevelopment are next to none as of now. Ryan1000 15:37, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's gone. Darren 23 Edits 15:49, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Damn! I was wrong here too. Back up to 10% Darren 23 Edits 17:46, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gah! Beat me to it, a$$hole! I was just about to say that. >:( Ryan1000 17:53, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gah! Beat me to it, a$$hole! I was just about to say that. >:( Ryan1000 17:53, July 6, 2011 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
I personally don't see why they tagged this system. It's under intense shear, and the only thing that develops it is CMC and (D)SHIPS, which brings it to 44 kts. I mean, really? I think tagging was a waste of time. Darren 23 Edits 15:05, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * And another thing. They're sending recon at 8/1700. Thats 25 hrs from now. Darren 23 Edits 15:50, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I personally don't see this thing developing, but it does seem to be a threat to the US. OWEN2011 16:58, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's now up to 20%, but still. That nice looking ULL over the GOM is providing intense shear and dry air. Can 96L fight it? It's giving it a decent shot, but still doubt it will form. Too many things are against it at this point. Darren 23 Edits 17:52, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * It likely won't be able to go against it; the shear is just too intense. If this thing was TD 3-E in the East Pacific, it would be a different story. As I mentioned earlier, July normally isn't a very active month. We sometimes get activity in July but not very much usually, and the chances of us getting destructive, powerful storms at this time of year are very low. 2005, 1996, and 1916 are a few exeptions, but it's still not common. In August the shear settles down and we may get more activity or destructive storms, and September is the month of reckoning, when we get the most severe activity in the Atlantic. October has a chance of dangerous Caribbean storms, some of which have sneak attacked Florida from the south after crossing Cuba, but now just isn't the time of extreme activity in the Atlantic basin. I will be on the lookout, but the chances of 96L becoming Bret are about the same as TD 3-E NOT becoming Calvin. It's still worth watching though... Ryan1000 18:16, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I don't see 96L becoming Bret, or the AOI even being TD Three. Andrew444 18:24, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, we don't know whether it will become Bret or not. We just have to wait. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  18:40, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * HurricaneSpin, the atmospheric conditions aren't in favor of this storm developing. It has a chance to develop into Bret, but it's not very likely, and most of the models aren't showing it becoming Bret, let alone TD 2. We still have to wait until the heart of the season comes. The shear it's under is just too severe for signifigant development. The NHC is only giving it a 20% chance of developing, and the storm itself is already interacting with central Florida. It likely won't develop due to unfavorable shear and interaction with land. The area of thunderstorms north of south America are at 10%, but once again the shear isn't in favor of it. But I'm not very surprised, it's only July, the second least active month, followed by June and November tied, just about. We go from second least active to second most active from July to August, so the change in conditions may allow further development of latter storms in the season. Ryan1000 19:21, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * HSpin: Yes, we don't know if it will become Bret or not, but there is a huge chance it won't become Bret. Land is too close, shear+dry air in that ULL, and you remember what happened to Bonnie when it basically married that ULL last year. Darren 23 Edits 20:14, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, with Bonnie the only minor difference was it actually managed to at least crack a minor TS landfall on south Florida. Heck, if Bonnie didn't develop out of that low, 2010 would have been the first hurricane season since 1990 without a single Hurricane or Tropical Storm hit the U.S, although TD2 hit the border at Mexico and the U.S. at Brownsville last year at this time, just like Marco of '90 weakening to a TD just before it's landfall. Ryan1000 20:52, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
 * HSpin: Yes, we don't know if it will become Bret or not, but there is a huge chance it won't become Bret. Land is too close, shear+dry air in that ULL, and you remember what happened to Bonnie when it basically married that ULL last year. Darren 23 Edits 20:14, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, with Bonnie the only minor difference was it actually managed to at least crack a minor TS landfall on south Florida. Heck, if Bonnie didn't develop out of that low, 2010 would have been the first hurricane season since 1990 without a single Hurricane or Tropical Storm hit the U.S, although TD2 hit the border at Mexico and the U.S. at Brownsville last year at this time, just like Marco of '90 weakening to a TD just before it's landfall. Ryan1000 20:52, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST
 * AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHWEST

OF TAMPA FLORIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE DECREASED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 * Not Surprsing to me. Looks as people think this is a surprise. 96.242.128.37 00:01, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * In your face. Up to forty percent. For all of you that doubted 96L from the beginning. - HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:09, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, it's fun to see activity, isn't it? And I do think this will be Bret. Also, if 96L makes landfall in the U.S.,we could benefit from it. BTW... It appears we have a new user (96.242.128.37). Welcome to the Hurricane Wiki, 96.242! Andrew444 00:25, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * No offense, but I am irritated of the imaturity of being happy about this. This a serious thing. I don't know if you share what I believe in, but I think tracking and forecasting these unpredictable things is interesting, but it's not supposed to be fun. For my sake, please, don't be happy when a storm forms. Anyway, I am very surprised they gave a 40% chance. As that ULL moves further west, it will continue to kill it with shear. I don't think the NHC did this right. I can barely spot that COC. There are too many things against it. If it somehow forms, great, droughtbuster. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:33, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree with Darren23, Andrew444, it's not exciting to have activity near land. People can be devastated from 96L, you know. That's just immature and irresponsible. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:41, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree it's interesting to watch, but even so, this storm likely won't be so bad when it does come ashore, and it could bring some rain to the south, not exactly much-needed, but beneficial. And I actually agree with Andrew to a certain extent here; Darren and HurricaneSpin, we need to have tropical cyclones make landfall in the southern U.S. because they are the basis of rainfall for crop growth there during the summer months. Not exactly to say we want to have a monster category 5 hurricane like Andrew make landfall there, but if tropical cyclones never made landfall in the U.S, the south would be more like a desert than an oasis. Cold fronts do provide rain, but the majority of summer rainfall in the southern states comes from tropical cyclone-based systems. Now, again, if this was a monster hurricane bearing down on U.S. soil, then cheering would be the last thing I would want to hear about. In the case of Barry in 2007, that storm wasn't harmful in any way; in fact, there were lots of wildfires raging across Florida in May 2007 because the Bermuda High had stayed over the state for quite some time, preventing rainfall from coming into the state. When Andrea came around in May, it just pushed the fires further south because the rain failed to reach the coastline, but the outer wind bands did. Barry helped douse the wildfires out with the rainfall it brought at the start of June. Yes it killed 2 people, but it saved hundreds more from having their homes(and/or lives) burned up. In cases like that, tropical cylones are good. A similar situation happened in 2006, but instead of Alberto, there was a huge cold front that was able to force the Bermuda high out to sea in April of that year to help the rain-stricken state get some water. They could have used some more from Alberto, but it wasn't the same case as Barry.
 * I agree it's interesting to watch, but even so, this storm likely won't be so bad when it does come ashore, and it could bring some rain to the south, not exactly much-needed, but beneficial. And I actually agree with Andrew to a certain extent here; Darren and HurricaneSpin, we need to have tropical cyclones make landfall in the southern U.S. because they are the basis of rainfall for crop growth there during the summer months. Not exactly to say we want to have a monster category 5 hurricane like Andrew make landfall there, but if tropical cyclones never made landfall in the U.S, the south would be more like a desert than an oasis. Cold fronts do provide rain, but the majority of summer rainfall in the southern states comes from tropical cyclone-based systems. Now, again, if this was a monster hurricane bearing down on U.S. soil, then cheering would be the last thing I would want to hear about. In the case of Barry in 2007, that storm wasn't harmful in any way; in fact, there were lots of wildfires raging across Florida in May 2007 because the Bermuda High had stayed over the state for quite some time, preventing rainfall from coming into the state. When Andrea came around in May, it just pushed the fires further south because the rain failed to reach the coastline, but the outer wind bands did. Barry helped douse the wildfires out with the rainfall it brought at the start of June. Yes it killed 2 people, but it saved hundreds more from having their homes(and/or lives) burned up. In cases like that, tropical cylones are good. A similar situation happened in 2006, but instead of Alberto, there was a huge cold front that was able to force the Bermuda high out to sea in April of that year to help the rain-stricken state get some water. They could have used some more from Alberto, but it wasn't the same case as Barry.


 * In other words, saying we "don't want hurricanes" is incorrect because we need them for rainfall, saying we "don't want catastrophic hurricanes" would be better. There were several places in the U.S. that had set near-record if not record low ammounts of rainfall in 2010 because there were no hurricanes that hit the U.S. last year. There was no source of rainfall for much of the south, and crops withered and died in many areas. Heck, 2010 ties for having the warmest year ever known. The only storm to hit the U.S. to any signifigant extent in 2010 was Hermine, which brought some flooding to Texas, about 150 million in damages, but Florida did not get hit with anything other than the daily afternoon rainshower in Miami known as Bonnie. Ryan1000 01:45, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

You do mean 250 million. Anyway, I'm not dumb. I know their benefits, and you don't have to be so verbose about it. But let's show some restraint for god's sake and at least not display that fun when there's nothing fun about it. It is serious, dangerous, yet interesting. Not fun. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:14, July 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Ah, I forgot it was upped from 150 million earlier. And yes, I agree these awe-inspiring events aren't "fun", but they aren't always "bad" either. Anyways, back to 96L, I am also surprised it got to 40% given the environment, but it won't last long, and I can't see Bret coming from this one. As for the other invest, I can see it becoming Bret in the long run, interaction with land and the shear in the east Caribbean are the only hindering factors as of now. Ryan1000 02:35, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. Oh... suckers to those whose thought 96L was gonna be Bret! Andrew444 12:36, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess our 2nd tropical cyclone will have to wait. OWEN2011 15:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess our 2nd tropical cyclone will have to wait. OWEN2011 15:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess our 2nd tropical cyclone will have to wait. OWEN2011 15:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

And now near 0%. AKA... it's down and out. Ryan1000 17:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still near 0%. Dunno what NHC is up to. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:37, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * They should've gotten rid of it 2 TWOs ago... <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:47, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: East of French Guyana
There is a nice looking tropical wave associated with the ITCZ north of Brazil/east of French Guyana. The wave already has surface convergence and (if I'm reading this right) upper divergence. Shear is light to moderate over the system. MJO is favorable across the basin. The major hindrance I see is South America. It will be moving in a general direction of WNW-NW, so it will stray close to the coastline. Currently, there's no model support, but I see CMC hinting at something (which is not surprising. After all, it's Canadian!) This wave should be watched for further development, especially when it reaches the Caribbean. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:06, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS also seems to be hinting at something too. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:56, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I normally don't look forward to big storms in July, but given the conditions in the Caribbean, and the fact the U.S. has escaped big time for the past 6 years, aside from Ike/Gustav in 2008, any wave should be watched out for. Ryan1000 17:28, July 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 10% now, but they don't expect development. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:05, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think that this system has a better chance than 96L. Would be interesting what the
 * NHC will have this system at on the next TWO. OWEN2011 17:00, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * There's quite a bit of shear in the eastern Caribbean, something not unusual for July. I expect some activity as this storm slowly heads WNW, but it has a less likely chance of development than 96L does. Ryan1000 18:19, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Like I said in the 96L section, I REALLY don't think this'll be Cindy, or even TD Three. Andrew444 18:26, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, what? I REALLY dont think this will be Cindy because I think this will be Bret :P. Anyway, this has the best chance overall. Shear, as of now, is moderate. I'm not concerned that this will form before it hits Venezuela, but environmental conditions are very favorable afterwards, aside from the TUTT in the Eastern Caribbean. I think this has a very decent chance (about 40%) of becoming Bret in the Western Caribbean about a week or so from now. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:09, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * The tropical upper trophospheric trough is exactly why I think it will not develop in the near future(next 48 hours), because it will produce shear over this storm. However, if this wave somehow manages to get past that trough, then we're in trouble. =( Ryan1000 20:48, July 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more yellow circle. Andrew444 17:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's off NHC. It has a chance to become Bret later when it reaches the western Caribbean, but as of now it's gone. Ryan1000 17:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * No more yellow circle. Andrew444 17:42, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's off NHC. It has a chance to become Bret later when it reaches the western Caribbean, but as of now it's gone. Ryan1000 17:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's off NHC. It has a chance to become Bret later when it reaches the western Caribbean, but as of now it's gone. Ryan1000 17:50, July 8, 2011 (UTC)

AOI:Western Caribbean

 * And we need to talk about this one again. GFS is trying to develop a weak low east of Belize associated with this tropical wave. NGP also has this, but much, much stronger. CMC, surprisingly doesn't have it. While this should be watched, it will have competition (like Arlene). Unlike Arlene, I have a feeling that the EPAC one will win this time. But again, this should be watched for further development. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:59, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * And what a surprise... near 0% <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:42, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * But it won't have a chance, it's nearing land. Andrew444 20:23, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I doubt it will form on East of Nicaragua. I think it needs to be carefully watched for development in the W. Carib. Even then, I still doubt it will form. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 22:12, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 10%. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:41, July 12, 2011 (UTC)

97L.Invest
And out of the blue, 97L is here. This thing has a 50% chance of becoming Bret until it moves into Mexico later today; anyhow I don't think it's going to happen. Ryan1000 13:56, July 13, 2011 (UTC)

I am very surprised. Looks it may be similar to Bret in 2005. I think though it will not

be as strong as Arlene was. 50% chance. I think it would be a TD if convection was

deep enough. 96.242.128.37 15:42, July 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * Nah, it's just about to make landfall, it likely won't become even TD 2. Ryan1000 16:08, July 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's the thing about 97L. It doesn't have a very good circulation, and judging from radar, it has about 6-12 hours to make landfall, or even less. The satellite presentation is... marginally okay. But I do think 97L has a chance, and that chance is that an NHC forecaster (my money is on Stewart, but he may not be on the next shift) will upgrade this to TD2 because of its proximity to land and/or the marginal structural appearance it's displaying. Either way, I only give it a 30% chance of becoming TD2, and a 5% chance of becoming Bret. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:30, July 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm not really expecting Bret. It's too close to land, and the 2005 TS Bret was much better organized(and looking) than 97L is right now. Ryan1000 17:18, July 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bye 97L. Good shot at TD though. 96.242.128.37 21:27, July 13, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at Near 0%, it didn't become a tropical cyclone. Oh well, time to wait. :( Andrew444 02:13, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at Near 0%, it didn't become a tropical cyclone. Oh well, time to wait. :( Andrew444 02:13, July 14, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Suriname
Another coast-hugging tropical wave is now in the NHC. Only 10% at this time, and the NHC doesn't expect significant development, but as the MJO is in the area, it has to be monitored for development as it marches across the Caribbean. A TUTT will be providing shear for the system once it enters the Caribbean, however, which should limit significant development of this system. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:06, July 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not looking at the Tropical Upper-Trophospheric Trough with this one... I'm thinking it will run into the other area of disturbed weather once it reaches the western Caribbean and get sheared by the other AOI. Eiher way, development of this system or the other one by Nicaragua is not expected. Bret will likely have to wait. And the SAL off of Africa is still quite thick for the other AOI... I'm currently on the lookout for Ma-On in the WPac, out of TD 08W, which is currently heading further west, possibly towards China or Taiwan in the next week. Ryan1000 04:58, July 12, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over Africa
This AOI is well over 2 days from exiting Africa, but GFS is hinting at a low developing in the Eastern Atlantic/MDR. Again, it's a long way away, but this could be the first Cape Verde-type storm this season, and as with all Cape Verde waves, it should be watched closely for development. Also, if it does move across the Atlantic, chances are it's going to the Northern Leewards rather than the open Atlantic unlike the others we saw last year. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:06, July 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's now about halfway between Africa and the Leewards. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 16:56, July 16, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: North of Panama
CMC, GFS, NOGAPS and ECMWF (sort of) are developing a low coming from that disturbance north of Panama in about 2-3 days. GFS has this moving north for a few hours then move west to west-southwest then make landfall on the Panama-Nicaragua border. CMC has basically the same thing, but has it making landfall a few miles north than where the GFS has it making landfall. ECMWF hints at some kind of low forming, but doesn't do anything with it. NOGAPS has this going north of both GFS and CMC and has this making landfall just south of Cabo Gracias a Dios. The interesting part of this is that GFS and CMC keeps it a tropical cyclone throught the passage (It's really one of the shortest passages a hurricane can really go through without dying. Joan-Miriam and Cesar-Douglas (which coincidentally was the last basin crosser to retain tropical cyclone status) went through the same area. After that, they have this storm moving northwest and possibly threaten Central America/Mexico. If this pans out, this would be a very interesting storm meteorologially but very very dangerous. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 02:38, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 10% <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:45, July 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * So if this becomes a tropical cyclone, achieves TS status and survives the passage we have Bret-Dora? 96.242.128.37 17:51, July 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not fully qualified to say yes, but I think that it will keep its Atlantic name if it were to cross Central America as a tropical cyclone. But a TS probably wouldn't be able to survive the passage, TS's are pretty weak. Also model support has been reduced to the GFS and the NOGAPS now only developing it once it crosses Central America. Yqt1001 18:04, July 14, 2011 (UTC)


 * If a storm crosses basins as a tropical cyclone (doesn't matter if it's a TD or TS or HU), then it will retain its original name. For example: If TD 11E (2010) remained tropical while it crossed Mexico, it will remain as TD 11E in the Atlantic (but if it strengthened, it would have had the name Hermine. Still with me?). Another example. If TS Alma remained at least a TD when it emerged in the Western Caribbean, it would have retained its name in the Atlantic basin. Another Example: If Hurricane Joan was around today, when it crossed Central America and emerged in the Pacific, it would still have been named Joan. IIRC, the same goes for every basin crosser now because it's a WMO agreement. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 18:37, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not everywhere. If a storm crosses from SWIO into Australian Region it retains the name, if it crosses from Perth to Reunion it will be renamed. --88.102.101.245 06:22, July 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * So no more two name hurricanes? :( Bah, that ruins the fun in hoping for them to survive the crossing over Central America! Yqt1001 20:34, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Unless... a tropical cyclone was deemed to have dissipated or lost tropical cyclone characteristics operationally but in post-storm analysis it was found out it did not, therefore it was the same tropical cyclone, therefore, a two name hurricane. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 21:01, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, you are right about the two-name policy not existing anymore with cross-over storms, but it will always exist in the WPac with storms that are given names by PAGASA and JMA. Typhoon Songda can also be called Typhoon Chedeng, or Tropical Storm Aere can also be called Tropical Storm Bebeng. Ryan1000 22:53, July 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * I was counting on Marco's remnants to form Polo back in 2008. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:01, July 14, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan, I classify those differently. I call WPAC ones concurrent two-name. But when I say two name in a conversation, I mean crossover/hyphenated two names, i.e. Cesar-Douglas, etc. It's because you don't really talk about those concurrent two-namers. You do talk about basin-crossing two named storms. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 00:21, July 15, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Off the FL/GA border
A weak 1014 hPa low has developed associated with a front just a few dozen miles away from the United States. Initially, models had this system developing into a tropical storm, but a few days ago, they have dropped that solution. Still, this could develop as it remains nearly stationary in the next 2 days. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 17:00, July 16, 2011 (UTC)

98L.Invest
This sucker is now an invest and at 20%. I have a feeling this may be Bret soon. It's close to the Gulf Stream, and the NHC says conditions may become favorable in the next few days. This one's got to be watched. *ahem* Hurricane Gaston (2004). <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:03, July 16, 2011 (UTC)

The tropics sure are active. We have this, the two EPac invests, and Ma-on. Back to the topic. Yes, a tropical cyclone is possible within the next few days. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 21:23, July 16, 2011 (UTC)

Uh oh, 98L is at 30% now. This could be trouble if this becomes the second tropical cyclone of the 2011 AHS. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 13:59, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

Whoever thinks this will be Bret, say "I'. OWEN2011 14:16, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

I. Hurricane Andrew (aka Andrew 444) 14:40, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

I, this will be more like a Cristobal than a Gaston. Either way, me and YE invites Andrew444 to come to our IRC, it's at ##hurricanes on freenode, we discuss hurricanes on there most of the time. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  19:35, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

I, and I think this may be a TD by tonight or tomorrow because of the recon data (even though the pressures are an unbelievably high 1010 hPa). Apparently west winds have been recorded with this system (I haven't checked as I've been out all day, but Wunderground has been buzzing). Before recon came I would have said Dora before Bret, but now I think Bret will become a TS first. And there's a large spread in the models, so I'm not even gonna get into that. DSHIPS has this going to 50 kts, but that's with BAMM going to FL. I'm gonna go ahead and be bold and say this could become a strong TS approaching 'cane strength. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:01, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
Whoops, it is a TD :P <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:10, July 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm predicting a Cristobal like storm. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin  <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:14, July 17, 2011 (UTC)

Favorite storms of 2011
Adrian is 1st =). Ryan1000 03:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I can't dispute the awesomeness of Adrian yet. No other storm so far in 2011 can even come close to Awesome Adrian. Yqt1001 03:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Depends if you think Arani or Songda are possible close runner-ups. Atu became a category 4 unexpectedly, just like Bianca(and Adrian), but Adrian was better-looking than both, and best of all, diddn't affect land =). Ryan1000 03:39, June 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Arani and Adrian are tied for first. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC)