Forum:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/September

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August summary
I'm not looking forward to this one as much as July, simply because it won't have any new info. It's too soon for damage and death estimates from Katrina, and the rest of the month was rather dull. But either way, it comes out in 20 hours. --Golbez 16:53, August 31, 2005 (UTC)


 * LINK - this link will work for the next month until the next one comes out, at which time it'll be easy to find on the NHC website. I noticed an error in the first paragraph, as there was only one depression which did not reach storm strength (the paragraph said there were two). They probably got confused with Lee/13... which regenerated. The Great Zo 13:16, 1 September 2005 (UTC)

Week 1
I know it's not September yet but August was all moved to the archive so we have to just pretend it is...

Welcome to the peak month of hurricane season! Let's hope this month all the big ones stay off in the Atlantic...but I am not counting on it. Looks like FEMA will have even more work ahead of them! CrazyC83 18:56, 30 August 2005 (UTC)

13L.Lee
It's BAAAAA-AAAAACK!!! The good news is that it's already racing off to the northeast. It's already too far away to affect even Bermuda. If we're lucky, it won't even reach the Azores. --Kitch 14:51, 31 August 2005 (UTC)


 * It might just be my Lee prediction - a complete dud overshadowed by Katrina, Maria and Nate - all major storms. CrazyC83 15:24, 31 August 2005 (UTC), revised CrazyC83 16:07, 1 September 2005 (UTC)


 * The chicks have been tough this year but Maria ain't formed yet.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 16:36, 31 August 2005 (UTC)

The Navy have upgraded it already.--Keith Edkins 18:48, 31 August 2005 (UTC)

We may have a candidate for the shortest lived Tropical Storm of the season, tough to beat 6 hours (given that Lee doesn't restrenthen). --Holderca1 03:16, 1 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Now that was a dud. Except for Dennis, the guys this year have been very weak it seems... CrazyC83 03:44, 1 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Wasn't so last year. The two guys were the most destructive of the Florida hurricanes. I guess Nature is trying to keep it balanced.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:01, 1 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Not to mention Karl who would have been devastating except for the fact that he stayed in the middle of nowhere...plus Alex strengthened out of nowhere but was already out of our way at the time. CrazyC83 21:05, 1 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Frances and Jeanne represented the ladies pretty well last year. --Holderca1 21:48, 1 September 2005 (UTC)


 * If TD14 becomes Maria (not certain) and then drifts away (more likely now), then Nate could break that...not that we want it broken... CrazyC83 04:35, 2 September 2005 (UTC)

14L.Maria
Navy Just declared another invest and it already has t-numbers of 1.0 and it not even at 20w yet and not above 10n This Could be a long tracker for us.NONAME


 * Could be the next big one? It's got a lot of time to develop...(read my bold projection at the bottom of the page) CrazyC83 15:55, 28 August 2005 (UTC)


 * Now listed as 91L.NONAME. Hello new depression soon... 141.209.216.186 16:13, 30 August 2005 (UTC) (Edit: sorry, this was me) The Great Zo 20:49, 30 August 2005 (UTC)

I take it back. They've removed the designation and set it back to INVEST. I am a bit confused, and will go on with my day regardless. The Great Zo 20:49, 30 August 2005 (UTC)


 * http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200591_model.gif Early projections show this becoming potentially a strong system, possibly a major hurricane...but a fish-spinner. CrazyC83 19:01, 30 August 2005 (UTC)

-

Ok, for real this time. Navy site now has 91L.Invest listed (correctly) as 14L.Noname. Not that the first model run intensity forecasts are terribly accurate... but SHIPS brings it to 86 knots in 5 days. The track brings it strongly northwest... near Bermuda but not terribly near. The Great Zo 13:26, 1 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Huh? The Bermuda High is sitting right there! It can't take that path! It would - at the earliest - turn near Bermuda and go for the hole between Bermuda and the US East Coast. The other option takes it right to the East Coast, a la Floyd and Isabel (or a la Frances). That is, unless it dissipates... CrazyC83 04:28, 2 September 2005 (UTC)

It's now Tropical Storm Maria. This one seems to be a difficult call to make...the Bermuda High is the wildcard. The models show no consensus out of this one. I think our best hope is quick dissipation, not recurving, as it seems that this won't be making a northeast turn anytime soon...it seems to me like it's a mixture of Irene and a cross between the main storms of 2003 (Fabian, Isabel, Juan and Kate). The only thing for sure - I can't see it being a Gulf coast storm at all. CrazyC83 17:02, 2 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Look at the ultimate forecast track and compare it to this  looks like this might just be a landfalling hurricane after all? Intensity gets much harder to forecast beyond 40°N though... CrazyC83 22:24, 2 September 2005 (UTC)

I think Maria will make landfall as a category 2 or 3 hurricane in eastern coast of Canada...


 * A landfalling Category 3 in Atlantic Canada, while not impossible, is very difficult to do...it would require it to keep a pressure level of 950 mb or less in the extratropical transition so that it can hold its strength (i.e. Luis 1995), or grow considerably in the mid-Atlantic and then move quite rapidly onshore. Eyewall cycles don't mean much in the higher latitudes. The SST's directly south of Nova Scotia are about 65-70°F (18-21°C) which is well above normal for there, but increase up to near 80°F (27°C) as far north as 41°N latitude, less than 300 miles south of Nova Scotia. CrazyC83 23:05, 2 September 2005 (UTC)

Maria is now a hurricane. RoswellAtup 05:14, 4 September 2005


 * Yes, but most likely a fishing storm now. Maria can only affect land by turning back to the northwest. CrazyC83 16:01, 4 September 2005 (UTC)

Now Maria is a major hurricane. Fortunately staying in the middle of nowhere...although she is probably hungry for someone seeing what Katrina did (thankfully it ain't happening barring a 270-degree loop). Still only 960 mb, so she is obviously just barely reaching major status now... CrazyC83 03:27, 6 September 2005 (UTC)

At the high latitudes
Is this right? Are they seriously expecting it to recharge to hurricane strength (if extratropical) at 60 North? And hell, at the rate Maria is going extratropical she may yet survive to reach Iceland as a tropical storm :P (Has a tropical storm ever limped into the Arctic Circle?) --Golbez 04:49, September 9, 2005 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure if any tropical storms have crossed the Arctic Circle. I know some, in the open water, have crossed 50°N as a full-fledged hurricane (at which point landfall is impossible, as the farthest point in North America that a hurricane can make landfall is Newfoundland, at about 47°N). As for restrengthening into a hurricane, the water at 60°N is less than 50°F (10°C), which is about as cold as Hudson Bay...so it would need a lot of help to do such. CrazyC83


 * Landfall not possible? Tell that to Iceland! ;) --Golbez 18:18, September 9, 2005 (UTC)


 * Not as a tropical system, but Hurricane Faith hit Norway as an extratropical storm with 50 mph sustained winds! Faith hit the Faroe Islands as very tropical Category 1 (2?) hurricane. The Faroe Islands are in the passage between the UK and Iceland! That is the farthest north any hurricane has gone as a tropical system. Alberto hit Iceland in 2000 as an extratropical storm. Karl went a ways as an extratropical system last year, being absorbed by a massive polar low before landfall in Norway. Faith, in my opinion, was one of the most incredible tropical cyclones ever to form in the Atlantic. No hurricane has traveled farther as...well as anything (#3 in 1899 came close). It's held that record for nearly 40 years.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:50, 9 September 2005 (UTC)

Keep an eye on [www.vedur.is] - it mentions "Milli Jan Mayen og Noregs er 990 mb lægð sem fjarlægist, en um 1100 km SV af Reykjanesi er víðáttumikil 970 mb lægð á norðausturleið." I know not a lick of Icelandic, but I know what "970 mb" means. I can guess what it's saying - 1100 km southwest of Reykjavik there is a storm that is 970mb, and over Norway's Jan Mayen is a 990mb system. This is more intense than it was when it lost tropical characteristics. It already says that Stórhöfði, on the south-southwest side of the country, is experiencing 13m/s winds - 30 mph. --Golbez 23:09, September 11, 2005 (UTC)


 * Sorry Golbez, I removed the link. That site is not going help many people here in America. The NHC said you could find info on Extratropical Maria in the High Seas forecasts but I have only seen Ophelia mentioned in there. I don't know where we'll find info on the storm. I'm hoping that we aren't going to have to wait for the post-season reports. Maybe there's a site in English out there somewhere.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:54, 11 September 2005 (UTC)


 * One: Unless it's porn, I'll link whatever the hell I want to. Don't edit someone else's comments except to remove a personal attack, please. Two: You might have noticed the "English" link in the upper right. --Golbez 02:56, September 12, 2005 (UTC)


 * I have never heard such a high-and mighty piece of garbage in a long time ("I'll link to whatever the hell I want to"). I know many people who would start a fist fight with a comment like that. What the hell are going crazy over now! All I did was say I removed your link from the article and I gave you the reasons why. I also didn't insult your use of the site, I just said I didn't think it was useful. I don't know what your talking about editing someone's comments, but Jesus Christ calm down! I don't what set you off, but honest to God!


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 04:05, 12 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Sounds to me like there's been a miscommunication; I think Golbez thought you edited the link out of his comment (or removed the brackets, or something; the URL still isn't hyperlinked, anyway, probably because it's missing the http:// ). AySz88^ - ^  05:12, September 12, 2005 (UTC)

Score! Nice satellite photos of extratropical Maria headed for Iceland. ,

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:00, 13 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Looks like the eye of a hurricane to me...I was looking up Weather Underground, and found this - sustained winds at one station was 67 mph which is a high-end tropical storm, and since it is sparsely populated and reporting only every 6 hours, I'm sure somewhere had winds (unrecorded) of hurricane force...so I guess you could say it was a Category 1 "hurricane" at that time (also at the time the temperatures there were mostly in the 40s) CrazyC83 20:05, 13 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Remember, Maria is an extratropical system, i.e cold core, so water temperature no longer matters. Only atmospheric wind shear and other systems can damage this storm now.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:33, 13 September 2005 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Yet another wave near Africa - this one's at a remarkably low latitude though. Waves in the east and central Atlantic haven't fared too well but you just have to imagine that's going to change at some point... The Great Zo 16:20, 31 August 2005 (UTC)


 * Just like Hurricane Ivan, next year, same place, same time... Keith Edkins 18:59, 31 August 2005 (UTC)


 * Last thing the Gulf Coast needs, although if a second hurricane hits an already-evacuated New Orleans, there isn't much left to take...worst case scenario would be Katrina-like damage on the East Coast. CrazyC83 20:08, 31 August 2005 (UTC)


 * Landfall in the Galveston/Houston area would be pretty bad as well, we wouldn't have much oil left if that happened. --Holderca1 20:29, 31 August 2005 (UTC)


 * It would also create absolute chaos as it is already holding thousands of New Orleans refugees even before the Astrodome opened...can places like Oklahoma City take that many?
 * Unfortunately by the weekend, I see TWO major hurricanes in the Atlantic basin (Maria north of the Caribbean, Nate approaching the southern Leewards) CrazyC83 15:56, 1 September 2005 (UTC)
 * I don't know about OKC, but the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area and San Antonio would accomodate some as well. --Holderca1 17:39, 1 September 2005 (UTC)

This should be TD15 soon. CrazyC83 16:05, 1 September 2005 (UTC)

Look at the GFDL computer model. Category 5 hurricane Nate by next week! CrazyC83 20:12, 1 September 2005 (UTC)


 * !#$%ING @#$^!!!!!!! The GFS brings a strong storm to the same location, and one of the other models agreed to at least bring a tropical cyclone to the islands too. That kind of agreement is disheartening. The Great Zo 01:42, 2 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Yikes! By mid-September, at this rate, we might have to be worrying about both the Hurricane Katrina recovery efforts on the Gulf Coast and the Hurricane Nate recovery efforts on the East Coast...this is truly turning out to be one disastrous season. It's like will the coast even exist by season's end??? Can we evacuate the entire coast from Maine to Texas??? CrazyC83


 * Why worry about something that hasn't even formed yet? Remember, these models are not fool proof. Just last year, the same models you guys are talking about said Alex would never become a major hurricane, that Jeanne would turn out to sea, and that Matthew would dissipate before ever reaching land.


 * --E. Brown


 * Nothing but wishcasting here. The models, indeed, are not foolproof, and are very inaccurate at long ranges. --tomf688  03:18, September 2, 2005 (UTC)


 * The same models that forecast Katrina to strike the gulf coast as a major hurricane too. I think that those of us here are well-studied enough to know that models aren't foolproof forecasts, and I see no harm in taking a bit of alarm when a model DOES forecast something as significant as that - full well knowing it may never occur. The Great Zo 05:51, 2 September 2005 (UTC)

Seems 92L petered somewhat. --tomf688  22:25, September 2, 2005 (UTC)


 * Too far south. Couldn't repeat Ivan's deadly magic. CrazyC83 23:09, 2 September 2005 (UTC)

It's been delisted altogether now. Watch out for the next nasty dollop of activity now moving off the coast of Sierra Leone.--Keith Edkins 15:35, 3 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Was it relisted? Seems to be on the Navy site.  --tomf688  20:20, September 5, 2005 (UTC)


 * I noticed it on the Navy site the last few days, but it finally seems to be off the list. Just some scattered thunderstorms going over the Lesser Antilles by now. --Patteroast 12:07, 6 September 2005 (UTC)

15L.Nate
Yet another tropical disturbance. A bit too close to where Katrina developed for my taste. --Holderca1 05:43, 4 September 2005 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I posted a note about it twice yesterday, not knowing its number, but locating it just off Florida's East Coast. But it was twice deleted - rather arrogantly, it seems. Pollinator 03:40, September 6, 2005 (UTC)


 * Could someone give a link to a site where I can see the details behind these TD's? Tompw 13:37, 4 September 2005 (UTC)
 * It's not a TD yet, but here is the link. Provides info for every tropical cyclone in the world.  --Holderca1 14:29, 4 September 2005 (UTC)
 * What direction is it moving? If it is going north, it could be a Carolina problem...but if it is going west...YIKES!!!! Don't follow Katrina's path, Nate! CrazyC83 16:00, 4 September 2005 (UTC)

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER... CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.


 * Had to change this, I had confused 93L with what is now 94L. 93L is a bit further to the east and drifting northward. --Holderca1 16:04, 4 September 2005 (UTC)

Navy site listing it as a depression now, advisories should be issued my NHC at 5 EDT. --Holderca1 18:37, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Indeed. It appears the deep convection is developing right into the center now as the circulation and deep convection are converging and organizing. The Great Zo 18:46, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

Looks like they aren't sure where it's going. -- Cyrius|&#9998; 21:32, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Yeah, it seems to be stationary and just "gaining strength." Ouch... Awolf002 21:42, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * If it stays stationary, doesn't it just recycle its own water and then weaken? CrazyC83 23:05, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

NHC has it as TS Nate. Is this another record-breaker for earliest formation? -- RattleMan 03:11, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Indeed. Previous record was September 10.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:15, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Ophelia must have a long time to form now to keep the records going...we are definitely on our way to Greek letters... CrazyC83 03:16, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Ophelia has until Sept 16, and Philippe has until Sept 27. I would say the odds are pretty good those will be broken. --Holderca1 03:18, 6 September 2005 (UTC)

It is now Tropical Storm Nate. Does it have a good chance to become a major hurricane? --RoswellAtup 02:43, 6 September 2005


 * No, not really. Doesn't have enough time before it reaches a more unfriendly environment for strenthening. A minor hurricane is not out of the question though.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:35, 6 September 2005 (UTC)

Does that mean it has chance to become a minimal hurricane? I have noticed that only female names have become hurricanes, except for Dennis...I also noticed that this year's atlantic season wasn't very friendly for cape verde hurricanes... There hasn't been a single typical category 4 cape verde hurricane that had the same track like Gert of '99, Fabian of '03 or Edouard of '96... and some storms doesn't reach hurricane strengths... Darn those dry air and wind shear from Africa... will this trend keep up?RoswellAtup 04:00 6, September 2005

IT APPEARS THAT BERMUDA WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST PATH OF NATE.

Does that mean they are having trouble forecasting the path of Bermuda? :-) --Keith Edkins 17:58, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * No, it can be worded either way - "the forecast path of Nate" is the clause. Bermuda was devastated by Fabian two years ago though... CrazyC83 20:07, 6 September 2005 (UTC)

Good ol' Nate is now a hurricane with 80 mph winds. -- RattleMan 14:46, 7 September 2005 (UTC)

16L.Ophelia
Just beginning to show up now on the Navy site. Too close to land to really develop - although if it crosses into the Gulf, look out! Even with Katrina sucking up a lot of hot water, it is still more than warm enough to develop and sustain a major hurricane. CrazyC83 22:26, 4 September 2005 (UTC)


 * This 0Z GFDL says it will develop...yeah. -- RattleMan 07:39, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

Darn this hurricane season, if the bahamas low develops, it would likely be tropical storm strength only... Most storms these season peak only at TS intensity... the cape verde has not been very accomodating for development... What if the season would end up with only 5 hurricanes but 16 tropical storms? That would be too pathetic... RoswellAtup 10:20, 5 September 2005


 * I would take that in minute over a second or third "Katrina" smashing into Florida or the Carolinas!!! Awolf002 11:16, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Yeah, a low that develops near the Bahamas has no chance of developing into a Cat 5 and slamming into Louisiana. (end-sarcasm) I highly doubt we go the rest of the season without a single hurricane since we have had 5 already. --Holderca1 14:15, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I think we will have several more MAJOR hurricanes, and one more Category 5 monster... CrazyC83 16:42, 5 September 2005 (UTC)

And this 6Z GFDL says it won't go past TS strength. What? Cat 4 to TS? -- RattleMan 14:36, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Not as extreme as the 92L forecast - went from Category 5 to dissipation (which it did) in one update... CrazyC83 16:42, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Why does it show it hitting Louisiana? Louisiana doesn't need another storm! --Revolución (talk) 17:32, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I actually laughed out loud when I watched that animation. Not in a "haha louisiana sux" way, but in one of those it's-deja-vous-all-over-again kind of ways. --tomf688  19:19, September 5, 2005 (UTC)


 * God, if another major hurricane were to hit the Gulf coast, especially New Orleans, in the next couple of weeks (or months, even), it would probably be impossible to ever accurately determine the damage caused by the second storm; in the aftermath, how would anyone know what had survived Katrina only to be destroyed by Ophelia? --DavidK93 22:01, 5 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Wrong system (see above). If this one develops and gets named, it would be Ophelia. CrazyC83 03:17, 6 September 2005 (UTC)

94L.INVEST has become 16L.NONAME. Just peachy... The Great Zo 13:18, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Impossible to tell where this one is going, considering it is stationary. If it enters the Gulf, look out! CrazyC83 15:06, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * NHC models now show it almost definitely becoming Ophelia within 24 hours, but thankfully moving over northern Florida later this week before reaching hurricane strength, and most importantly, not getting back over any more fricking water! --DavidK93 15:13, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Eh, the same models said Katrina was going to make landfall in the Florida panhandle so don't put too much faith in their ability to forecast beyond a couple days. --Holderca1 15:17, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Right now it is hard to trust any models on this one. It is stationary and has no general trend on direction. A Tropical Storm Watch (at least) should be issued for the South Florida coast to Biscayne Bay as well (there isn't one now). CrazyC83 19:50, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I hope the GFDL is wrong, it is forecasting it moving west over the peninsula into the Gulf and striking the Louisiana coast. Sounds way too familiar. --Holderca1 20:19, 6 September 2005 (UTC)

Even if it does stay on it's current track, it looks like it will be hitting the same general area of the Florida coast with heavy winds and rain for nearly a week, which = bad news. --tomf688  20:40, September 6, 2005 (UTC)


 * The current forecast track has it making landfall in northeast Florida as a near-hurricane. That's not quite so bad.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:21, 6 September 2005 (UTC)


 * This is strange, I live in northeast Florida, and I was thinking about this a couple weeks ago, that since this season is so unusual, there may actually be a hurricane making a direct hit on Jacksonville, Florida which rarely happens, though we get considerable damage from hurricanes that pass over us. --Revolución (talk) 00:20, 7 September 2005 (UTC)


 * (First and) last time it happened was 1964. Mike H (Talking is hot) 00:32, September 7, 2005 (UTC)
 * Very interesting, thanks. Coindentally, both of these storms formed around the same time (late august-early september). --Revolución (talk) 00:42, 7 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Lucky for you, Revolution, TD16/Ophelia-wannabe is not likely to become a hurricane before landfall. However, you're gonna get wet (unless this thing makes an insane turn to the northeast), and you might want to have a flashlight ready as you might be in the dark for a few hours. (Man, my beach condo on St. Simons Island is going to get soaked!).


 * From the 11pm discussion:


 * "...Should that happen, it could throw a monkey wrench into the cyclone structure and the intensity forecast."


 * Not bad for Jack Beven. I thought that was pretty good.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:08, 7 September 2005 (UTC)

Most likely the only way this can go to hurricane strength is if it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. CrazyC83 04:56, 7 September 2005 (UTC)

Another record falls. 20 days for Philippe to break the next one.--Keith Edkins 06:25, 7 September 2005 (UTC)

And we thought Katrina had a wild computer model spread in the early days. This one looks like they dropped a handful of marbles on the table and watched where they went. Knowing my luck, it will come across and say hello to Mobile. Donovan Ravenhull 12:38, 7 September 2005 (UTC)

This one is so difficult to call! I am thinking one of several things might happen.

Scenario 1 (worst-case scenario): Ophelia stands tall off the coast of Florida for 48-72 hours. The ridge of high pressure over the mid-Atlantic reaches down and forces her over Florida. From there, she enters the Gulf, regains all her lost strength - and then some - and then heads across to just south of Pontchartrain, hitting southeast Louisiana at a 90-degree angle as a major hurricane.

Scenario 2 (best-case scenario): Ophelia hits the peak and starts weakening on her own water that she already sucked up. Slowly dissipates off the coast of Florida. In order for that to happen, she cannot strengthen any more and must start weakening.

Scenario 3: Ophelia moves slowly northward and picks up the jetstream, which sends it out to sea (although likely strengthening in the open Atlantic). That can only happen if she starts moving and goes north within 24-36 hours.

Scenario 4: Appears unlikely at this point, a continued northwest movement that takes Ophelia ashore in northeast Florida or the Georgia coast. The mid-Atlantic ridge appears to block that path and would have to move northward or eastward, or weaken considerably, to open that route. CrazyC83 20:15, 7 September 2005 (UTC)

Ophelia could do darn near anything at this point. That's what's so nerve-wracking.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:51, 7 September 2005 (UTC)

This looks bad... If Ophelia is pushed down south, it can loop towards the gulf and may be the 5th major hurricane... I wonder if Philippe will be a Category 4 Cape-Verde Storm... I'm just hoping... RoswellAtup 18:44, 8 September 2005


 * What good is it doing anyone to forecast Philippe when he doesn't even exist yet? I've noticed this a lot from people (not just you) on this talk page. Amateur meteorology occurs and most likely it doesn't even come to fruition. Just please, let me understand...what does it have to do with the subject at hand, which is discussing the hurricanes that are occurring right now? Mike H (Talking is hot) 16:47, September 8, 2005 (UTC)


 * There isn't even a 95L.Invest yet! It means we just have to deal with the three named storms upon us now...and Ophelia could be a big one if it loops back or hits the Gulf... CrazyC83 18:30, 8 September 2005 (UTC)

LOL... "Ophelia had made itself comfortable about 70 miles (115 km) east-northeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, and was showing no signs of leaving any time soon." I like it, Keith. Not entirely encyclopaedic, but that's flowery prose that I can live with. :) --Golbez 18:19, September 8, 2005 (UTC)
 * It was just that the fourth consecutive time I had to find some way of saying 'It's still there' I ran out of encyclopaedic variants :-) --Keith Edkins 21:12, 8 September 2005 (UTC)


 * That might be a good thing...if she stays there for a while, she'll use up all the water and break down...aka Scenario 2 that I wrote above... CrazyC83 18:32, 8 September 2005 (UTC)
 * You can't assume that. She's sitting astraddle the Gulf Stream, and the warm water is constantly being replenished. Pollinator 02:25, September 9, 2005 (UTC)

It's now Hurricane Ophelia. Still can't figure out where she wants to go...this is so turning into Katrina 2.0! CrazyC83 21:04, 8 September 2005 (UTC)

If she hits northeast Florida, she will most likely cause a lot of damage because she's so slow-moving. But she could also move to the east, then move back to the west and make landfall in the Carolinas. Either way, it will be bad. --Revolución (talk) 21:05, 8 September 2005 (UTC)

When was the last time we had 3 hurricanes on the go at once? 1995?--Keith Edkins 21:12, 8 September 2005 (UTC)


 * 1998; ended up being four: Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl. We scared it to death last year. Ivan weakened to a tropical storm inland just two days before Karl became a hurricane. (We used the same list in both years so it's kind of confusing). 1995 did have three active at once: August 31-Humberto, Iris, and Luis were active hurricanes. Other interesting facts: 1999 had two hurricanes active three different times: August 22-Bret and Cindy, August 26-30-Cindy and Dennis, September 13-16-Floyd and Gert. 1999 also had two major hurricanes active at once: September 15-Floyd and Gert. On October 19, when Jose became a hurricane, Irene was extratropical but at hurricane intensity. 1969 also saw 2 major hurricanes active at once: Camille and Debbie. Also in that year, 5 tropical cyclones were active at once: Inga, 10, 11, Jenny, and Kara. 1886: August 21-24 3 hurricanes were active. 1893 had four hurricanes active two different times: August 19 and August 22. However, three were hurricanes both times. Only Hurricane Six dissipated on the 19th and Hurricane Eight became a hurricane on the 22nd. Hurricane Three would bring a quick end to the second spell by becoming extratropical in the the late morning of August 22.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:07, 8 September 2005 (UTC)

Tropics are really heating up in the atlantic... sad case for east pacific, looks like Irwin culminates the season this year...


 * I kinda doubt that.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:50, 9 September 2005 (UTC)


 * They have Huricanes Jova and Kenneth now, and Tropical Storm Lidia (if I've been following correctly, Lidia is our old friend 92L.Invest).--Keith Edkins 21:48, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Don't you think that it is a record that September 8 will be the earliest date to have seven hurricanes?


 * Not sure, 1995's 7th hurricane was on September 13, 8th on September 28, 9th on October 2. --Holderca1 19:58, 9 September 2005 (UTC)

Hmmm, i think 2005 has a new record... September 8 is the earliest date to have at least 7 storms becoming hurricanes... the 7th hurricane on 1933 was on Sept. 12... 1995 (Marilyn) on Sept. 13... 1936 on Sept. 20... 1969 (Inga) on Sept. 30... 1950 (George) was on Oct. 1.... Don't you think so?

It's back at hurricane status. Current forecast predicts it might make landfall on South Carolina. It looks like Charleston might be directly affected. If it strengthens to Category 3-4-5 then I think we may see alot of damage all the way from Coastal Georgia to North Carolina. This could be the East Coast's Katrina. --Revolución (talk) 00:12, 10 September 2005 (UTC)


 * That's the big concern. There are a lot of similarities between Katrina and Ophelia - both developed near shore, both were slow-movers at first, both made first splash as a Category 1 hurricane (Ophelia a brush, Katrina a landfall), both were tough to forecast, the list goes on. As for the damage trail from coastal Georgia to North Carolina - depending on the track, it could continue into the mid-Atlantic states and up the Appalachians into New England as well...at least there isn't a major city for it to take everything into even if it becomes a Category 4 or 5 (but several mid-sized cities - Charleston, Savannah, Wilmington) CrazyC83 01:10, 10 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Georgia hasn't had a major hurricane make landfall in the state in over 100 years...and I'm hopin' it'll stay that way! The last hurricane to make landfall in Georgia was Hurricane David, in 1979 as a Category 1 south of Savannah. South Carolina's looking like a juicy target right now, Hilton Head specifically.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:41, 10 September 2005 (UTC)

It is possible that Ophelia could be the 5th major hurricane of the season before making landfall.

Why is it weakening? --Revolución (talk) 22:09, 11 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Shhh, don't question a good thing. :)


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:09, 11 September 2005 (UTC)

Ophelia is starting to remind me of one storm from the early 90s that tends to get lost in the shuffle (Bob, 1991) -. Compare it to the 5-day forecast track, and notice that it strengthened off the Carolina coast before slamming into New England...I am starting to see a similar path possible in Ophelia especially if she misses North Carolina or only crosses the Outer Banks... CrazyC83 00:59, 12 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Doubt it, the NHC says they wouldn't be surprised if it jogs a little farther west that currently forecast. By the way, a little jog to the west would put landfall square at Jacksonville, North Carolina and the US Marine base at Camp LeJeune! That could get messy.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:30, 12 September 2005 (UTC)

Article shift
Since Ophelia is strengthening and pointing at the coast, plus it has taken a bizarre track, should it be moved to its own article? CrazyC83 21:17, 9 September 2005 (UTC)


 * It will be moved if and when the section on this page expands beyond a few paragraphs. No need to jump the gun.  --tomf688  21:28, September 9, 2005 (UTC)


 * I agree. --Revolución (talk) 23:46, 9 September 2005 (UTC)

Some anonymous user created the Hurricane Ophelia page. Since that link would otherwise redirect to the 2005 season page, I would leave it for now - and if it fails to strengthen, I'd rename it Hurricane Ophelia (2005) since the name Ophelia would likely not be retired if it made landfall at its current intensity. After all, do we really want to delete a page we might need in 24 hours anyway, especially when there is no Ophelia disambiguation? CrazyC83 16:09, 10 September 2005 (UTC)
 * I agree, let's keep it for now. If Ophelia doesn't amount to much, we could just redirect it back here. --Revolución (talk) 16:55, 10 September 2005 (UTC)
 * Hmm, it seems somebody already redirected it back. --Revolución (talk) 17:10, 10 September 2005 (UTC)
 * Well, it looks obvious we won't be needing an article on Hurricane Ophelia, which is good. Unless she strengthens to a strong hurricane and causes alot of damage upon landfall, I think it should stay redirected. --Revolución (talk) 00:18, 13 September 2005 (UTC)


 * It depends on the amount of information we get. However, it appears unlikely (at this point) that the name Ophelia will be headed for the dustbin, so it leaves us with a naming dilemma. Since this is the first Ophelia, do we just leave it as Hurricane Ophelia until 2011, at which point we (could) have to shift it to Hurricane Ophelia (2005), since the date is redundant? CrazyC83 01:50, 15 September 2005 (UTC)

Boooo. The NHC typoed Pamlico Sound as Pimlico Sound and now the ignorant nuts at TWC are saying Pimlico over and over - and someone created a Pimlico sound article on WP. Please go over to Talk:Pimlico sound and help out on the WP:VfD. --Mm35173 02:09, 14 September 2005 (UTC)

I noticed in the lead in section that it says that Ophelia made landfall when it actually hasn't. The center of circulation has remained over water for its entire existence or is there something I am missing? --Holderca1 15:50, 15 September 2005 (UTC)

I don't think we should delete the Hurricane Ophelia article, but add to it instead. There already is a lot of information about it in the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season page. Besides, we can always change it to Hurricane Ophelia (2005) if it isn't retired.--Cool Genius 20:56, 15 September 2005 (UTC)


 * That's what I am thinking. It is a difficult call to make, since there is certainly no guarantee the name will be retired (it is definitely not an obvious case like Katrina is - right now I don't think Ophelia will be retired but there will likely be some consideration) but the information calls for an article. I don't know if the year is necessary to add, since this is the first time Ophelia has been used (so there is no disambiguation page) and it would take a busy 2011 season for the name to re-appear. I'd take it to Hurricane Ophelia and if the name is not retired, add (2005) to the official page but have the main article link redirect until a disambiguation is necessary. CrazyC83 21:20, 15 September 2005 (UTC)


 * My opinion: a separate article should only be created if it is long enough to justify separating. Right now the length of the Ophelia section in the season article isn't sufficient I think but with a bit more data it could be.  The name should be Hurricane Ophelia (2005) since it's not going to be retired (presumably) and Hurricane Ophelia should be set up as a redirect or disambiguation.  There probably aren't going to be any Atlantic Ophelia's for a while, but eventually there will be.  However, there were several Typhoon Ophelia storms that probably justify a disambiguation already...in 1958 (super-typhoon, caused the loss of a hurricane hunter aircraft), 1960 (direct hit on Hong Kong), and probably others.   Anyway, whatever standard is agreed on should be added to the "standards" section at Template_talk:hurricane.  Jdorje 21:53, 15 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Ooh look:, a list of all Pacific typhoons. Jdorje 22:05, 15 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Would the name Ophelia be retired next year?


 * Very doubtful. But until they make their decision, purely speculative. --tomf688 <TALK> 03:08, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I personally don't think Ophelia should be retired, although I would expect there to be some consideration. It's an "iffy" storm - certainly not an obvious case either way. CrazyC83 03:37, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Getting quiet out there
Nothing spectacular out there at the moment. Seems things might be calming down for a while after that recent spurt in activity. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 <TALK> 21:32, September 10, 2005 (UTC)
 * Damn you! I just came here to say exactly that. September 10th is, I believe, the statistical height of the season - yet we have two extratropical storms, a confused hurricane, and no invests on the horizon. --Golbez 21:36, September 10, 2005 (UTC)
 * Well, there's tons of dry air just off the west coast of Africa that tends to hinder development. I think the Cape-Verde "season" may be over. -- RattleMan 21:50, 10 September 2005 (UTC)
 * The Caribbean is still open for development though... CrazyC83 14:40, 11 September 2005 (UTC)

I think the 2005 atlantic hurricane season will end up in Ophelia since dry air has been inhibitng any cyclone development. Dr. William Gray's forecast and prediction was not met after all....
 * That's incredibly optimistic. I hope you're right though. --Revolución (talk) 02:18, 11 September 2005 (UTC)

If it does end with Ophelia, the 2005 atlantic hurricane season may have one more last record... the earliest date as to when the last storm dissipated...

We're probably going to have a quiet period after Ophelia does whatever she's going to do. But I have feeling we're not out of the woods yet. Maybe we can use reverse psycology and start fretting about the tropics and see if that works.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:59, 11 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I can't see how people believe the season is ending when it's only a bit over halfway through. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 <TALK> 02:09, September 12, 2005 (UTC)

Whatever happened to the expression, "The calm before the storm?" Two months to go so I wouldn't set anything in stone.

17L.Philippe
So we gave up too soon! There is indeed another system finally brewing off Cape Verde... CrazyC83 22:35, 13 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Finally! Maybe Philippe will come of this. -- RattleMan 23:11, 13 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Just so you know, the NHC barely mentions it. And what little they do say about it mentions nothing of tropical development.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:37, 13 September 2005 (UTC)


 * It seems the "quiet Atlantic" has woken up once again. --Revolución (talk) 01:29, 14 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I really doubt that this one would become Philippe... It is not showing organization. The saharan dry air is there and will prevent any more storms for this season. Goodbye 2005 hurricane season.


 * There are other places besides Cape Verde that storms can develop, and the dry air could easily go away... CrazyC83 14:33, 14 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I brought up a sat loop and don't even know what the heck they're seeing. Looks like a bunch of disorganized cloudiness to me. The Great Zo 16:34, 14 September 2005 (UTC)

Why are we calling an end to the season just yet? It's not really helping anyone who is tracking storms, and is just wishful thinking at this point. Can we just stick to discussing the storms without any addendums like these? Mike H (Talking is hot) 17:23, 14 September 2005 (UTC)

Now it's getting better mentioned by the NHC and appears more favorable for development...I think we just hit a lull and the season will pick up again in the second half of September and into October... CrazyC83 20:55, 14 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I thought a lull was supposed to mean no storms active. I guess the lull isn't really over until we have Tropical Depression Seventeen, but still, this is not promising.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:55, 14 September 2005 (UTC)


 * What the heck is wrong with us? A Cat 1 is pounding North Carolina, and we're calling it a lull? Oh, what the 2005 season has done to us psychologically... The Great And Also Guilty Of Above Crime Zo 04:50, 15 September 2005 (UTC)

Looks like its getting better organized, probably will have no lull between Ophelia and TD17 since it appears Ophelia will still be active for a few more days. Talk about heating up, the East Pacific has 2 active tropical storms and 2 additional invests. --Holderca1 15:55, 15 September 2005 (UTC)


 * NHC calling it "vigorous" during the midday advisory. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 <TALK> 20:01, 15 September 2005 (UTC)


 * It's expected to become a tropical depression by the end of the day -- ColdRedRain 20:46, 15 September 2005 (UTC)

Look at 2 of the models (GFDL) and  (MM5) - both send the storm (Philippe) to major hurricane status in the open Atlantic...at least not threatening anyone though. CrazyC83 02:06, 16 September 2005 (UTC)

At the end of the day we don't have a TD. Hopefully it can come today (Friday)...on another note, has anyone noticed the number of storms out there? :


 * Atlantic: 95L, Ophelia


 * East Pacific: 96E and 95E, Kenneth and Jova


 * West Pacific: 98W, 92W, 90W, TD16W


 * Indian Ocean: 96B, 95A

Crazy... -- RattleMan 05:14, 16 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Nah... that nasty blob doesn't have muchn chance to become philippe! i'm positive.

I am anticipating there being two new invests in the Atlantic rather soon, the Cape Verde wave behind 95L and the disturbance north of Puerto Rico. --Holderca1 15:17, 16 September 2005 (UTC)

Intensity models are currently forecasting it to be at hurricane strength in a few days, that seems a bit extreem. Forecast models aren't looking all that good either. --Holderca1 17:11, 16 September 2005 (UTC)


 * The NHC seems rather nearvous about both 95L and the disturbance.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 21:57, 16 September 2005 (UTC)


 * We might be talking about TWO major hurricanes next week!!! CrazyC83 01:18, 17 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Let's hope not. --Revolución (talk) 05:04, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

What's wrong? How come it's not developing? What's taking it so long? It seems that this blob will not become Philippe afterall... It's not even classified to a tropical depression... and NHC says that it anticipates development later tonight, what do the forecasting models currently suggest right now? RoswellAtup 02:15, 17 September 2005 (UTC)
 * Why do you want it to develop? Comments like "what's taking it so long" are very disturbing. To be interested in hurricanes is one thing, but to openly hope that a tropical system strengthens is another. Sorry if I may have interpreted your comment the wrong way, but it doesn't seem like a question on why it's developing slower (if it is, I don't know), but rather a disappointed rant that it's not becoming Philippe. --Revolución (talk) 05:04, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Advisories will commence on TD-17 at 11am AST.--Keith Edkins 13:13, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

It's now TD17 with winds of 35 mph. --Revolución (talk) 15:14, 17 September 2005 (UTC)

Apparently we got TS Phillipe, but I'm not sure (gotta wait for the NHC) -- RattleMan 01:11, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Looks to me like Philippe will be a fish-spinner, although possibly a major hurricane...96L.Invest (soon to be TD18, then Rita?) will be the one to really watch. I see Rita as verrrrry problematic. CrazyC83 02:04, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

CNN and the NHC just announced it. Both Philippe and TD18 have formed... -- RattleMan 02:45, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Will Philippe make it as the season's 5th Major hurricane? What about Rita? that means six major hurricanes as of September. If one more will make it as a category 3-4-5 in October, we will be above the forecasts of six major hurricanes this season.


 * This isn't an office; the tropics don't have to "meet quota." Mike H (Talking is hot) 07:09, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I expect both Philippe and Rita to become major hurricanes, in fact both reaching Category 4 (or higher). Has there ever been two Category 4 storms in the Atlantic basin at the same time? CrazyC83 15:31, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Yes, there has been. Hurricanes Floyd and Gert of 1999 were both category 4s on September 15.

Apparently Philippe is now a hurricane, but again, I have to wait for the NHC to make sure... -- RattleMan 02:33, 19 September 2005 (UTC)


 * What is your source on that? --Holderca1 02:37, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

From a tropics forum where people post recon reports. Anyway, NHC is now calling it a hurricane -- RattleMan 02:46, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Will Philippe have a chance to become a major fishie hurricane?

It's a tropical storm now. --Revolución (talk) 22:16, 20 September 2005 (UTC)

18L.Rita
See Talk:2005 Atlantic hurricane season/Rita

97L.INVEST
Most of us believe it is there, but since the Navy site is down, we cannot prove it. Any thoughts on it? CrazyC83 03:38, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * It is mentioned in the latest TWO, so I would imagine it's been classifed as such already. --Holderca1 03:41, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Here is an infrared satellie loop of the East Atlantic ; I suppose the mystery storm is that scattered activity while Philippe is the storm on the far left. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 <TALK> 03:44, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Makes sense, although the mysterious blob doesn't seem ripe for development at least for the next couple days... CrazyC83 03:47, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * With the Pacific 'canes eating up the shear, it could do better than expected. Stirling Newberry - Bopnews 04:54, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * This is a little unsettling. NHC now mentions it as a candidate for slow development in thetropical weather outlook


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 04:58, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

I love the disclaimer on that graphic, Holder. "If anything about this graphic is confusing, ignore it". Actually laughed out loud for that one. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 <TALK> 17:34, 18 September 2005 (UTC) Actually there are two blobs east to Philippe... One may become Stan and the one on further east will perhaps become Tammy... Leaving the names Vince and Wilma stored for October. What a very active season.


 * I am going to remove the ? from the title since there are computer models available on the system now. --Holderca1 13:44, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I love the disclaimer on that graphic, Holder. "If anything about this graphic is confusing, ignore it".  Actually laughed out loud for that one. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 <TALK> 17:35, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Those tracks all give the sign of a long-lived Caribbean hurricane. Those are always bad.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 18:28, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Can the Atlantic basin handle three major hurricanes at once though? CrazyC83 19:01, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * What do mean? We don't even have one. We're only forecast to have one. We only have two tropical cyclones active now. Let's not jump the gun here.--E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 20:08, 18 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I don't think 2005 believes in impossible, but it would be unprecedented. 2 MH's at once is rare enough - Floyd & Gert majored together for less than a day in 1999, the previous instance was 1 fix in 1969.--Keith Edkins 18:37, 19 September 2005 (UTC)

Really? I was shocked to find that Rita formed, and now we have another invest! Let's hope this one DOESN'T develop. Let's hope Philippe becomes a fish-spinner, and I don't think we can be optimistic about Rita since the Gulf is very warm and I can see it becoming a strong hurricane. --Revolución (talk) 23:38, 18 September 2005 (UTC)

Hmmm... it looks like it's not developing.
 * That's a good thing! --Revolución (talk) 19:03, 19 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Let's hope it won't, we've got enough on our hands. There is an ineresting spot of convection in the deep southwestern Caribbean north of Panama associated with a tropical wave. It has a nice cyclonic spin to it, but the NHC doesn't seem too worried about it.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 23:53, 19 September 2005 (UTC)


 * No longer on the Navy site, and the NHC says it's being absorbed by Philippe. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 <TALK> 20:16, 20 September 2005 (UTC)


 * This proves hurricanes can be beneficial: Phillipe has been the sole reason why many disturbances east of it have come to nothing. Hurricanes have also ended months-long, even year-long droughts.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:26, 21 September 2005 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
From the NHC morning Atlantic TWO, 23 Sep:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Nothing on the Navy site yet, but the Bermuda Triangle region seems to be ready to hack up another one. These have been nothing but bad.--Mm35173 13:57, 23 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Is there enough warm water left there for another system to develop even into Tropical Storm Stan? CrazyC83 16:13, 23 September 2005 (UTC)

It's now showing up as 98L.INVEST. CrazyC83 16:22, 23 September 2005 (UTC)
 * The Navy has picked it up as 98L.Invest. Looking at GOES-12 visible channel, it looks like there might be several small warm-core vortices with outflow tightly clustered in a cyclonic circulation... with Phillipe caught up in the action. The SSTS look to be in the 27 - 29 deg. C. range, so yes, it is warm enough. Steering winds are S - SW, so it would probably just disturb the fish if it develops. --Mm35173 16:28, 23 September 2005 (UTC)

I think this will just fade away like that other invest. --Revolución (talk) 19:20, 23 September 2005 (UTC)

No way... it's gonna develops sometime today.

Since it's involving remnants of Philippe, I wonder if it will be named by the list or will the NHC decide that Philippe had a part to play and name it Philippe? This has me wondering. From the NHC: "HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME EITHER A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO"-- NSLE | Talk 10:24, 24 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I think it'll end up as Stan. After all, TD12 formed partly from the remnants of TD10 but gained its own name. Of course, that became academic when it became Katrina. | KP 15:31, 24 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I think so too, and I can't see Stan becoming more than a tropical storm or (if he's lucky) a Category 1 hurricane, and a fishing one at that...there is a big ridge south of Nova Scotia right now. CrazyC83 15:34, 24 September 2005 (UTC)

AoI:001 - Atlantic Tropical Wave

 * Also - there's some nice rotation and convection going on in that tropical wave along 30W near 12N... check this out . Could be a classic October Cape Verde... --Mm35173 16:40, 23 September 2005 (UTC)
 * Update: The NHC picked up my system!

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
 * I think the reason it wasn't there this morning is that it was located between QSCAT passes - and the rotation was easy to miss on GOES-12. --Mm35173 18:29, 23 September 2005 (UTC)
 * Cape Verde in October? Don't those usually just turn northward long before affecting any land? Ahhh, it's the 2005 season! Screw all the old rules!! CrazyC83 03:56, 24 September 2005 (UTC)
 * I fear this could be another big one, though nowhere near Rita/Katrina's power. Could be another Hurricane Juan, making landfall in Canada as a Cat 2. | KP 10:10, 24 September 2005 (UTC)
 * While the ridges would need to be aligned perfectly for such to happen, the SST's are above 26°C (80°F) all the way to 40°N latitude, which on a northward track would be about 12-18 hours from landfall at the speed most storms travel at that latitude...A Rita (pre-landfall) or Katrina is almost impossible at that latitude. The most such a storm could likely reach at landfall is Category 3, after downgraded from 4 or 5 in the open water. CrazyC83 15:21, 24 September 2005 (UTC)
 * Now, now, let's look on the bright side. Oh wait, it's 2005. ;) -- NSLE | Talk 10:24, 24 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Hmmm, I smell Tammy in the cape Verde. -- RoswellAtup 5:14, 25 Septmeber 2005 (UTC)


 * Don't you mean Stan? --Holderca1 22:32, 24 September 2005 (UTC)


 * No, I really mean tammy... Stan would be that lump of cloud swirling near bermuda -- RoswellAtup 5:59, 25 Septmeber 2005 (UTC)
 * Not everything is going to develop into a hurricane... --Revolución (talk) 23:51, 24 September 2005 (UTC)
 * In most years I'd agree with you, but in 2005 even our Tropical Depressions that fail to make name status get a second chance (and then make the most of it) Naraht 01:39, 25 September 2005 (UTC)
 * In fact only one Tropical Depression has failed to make name status in 2005 - TD10. And the remnants of TD10 merged into TD12, and that became Katrina. I guess we're due a Tropical Depression that doesn't form into a named storm - what percentage of TDs turn into named storms in 'normal' years? | KP 09:16, 25 September 2005 (UTC)

Yet many, many tropical waves have not developed into anything, so it's a bit early to assume. If we had the guys who post on this talk page predicting the weather, we'd have had 50 hurricanes by now. ;) --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 {talk} 17:38, 25 September 2005 (UTC)

Note that the NHC says all these things are pretty pitiful. The broad area of low pressure near Bermuda is forecast not to develop. Maybe the season's cooling down a bit. A decent lull would be nice.

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 02:12, 26 September 2005 (UTC)

AoI:002 - Carribean Tropical Disturbance
No dice today - special statement. The convection continues to elude the south side. --Mm35173 19:24, 29 September 2005 (UTC)

THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON FRODAY...IF NECESSARY.
 * The NHC sound interested; they even spelt Friday wrong. *grin* -- NSLE | Talk 06:45, 30 September 2005 (UTC)
 * I think it is all part of the effort to denegrate the Norse god of Beauty at the expense of the carrier of the One Ring. :)


 * Surprised it hasn't been declared 91L.INVEST considering it has development potential... CrazyC83 16:28, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

AoI:003 - Gulf of Mexico
Nothing major, and conditions are unfavourable, but the NHC sure is keeping a close eye on this one, what after Katrina and Rita impacting the Gulf...

A SMALL AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. -- NSLE | Talk 06:45, 30 September 2005 (UTC)


 * That shouldn't be under the NHC control (it should be up to regional weather offices), it is not tropical at all and there is virtually no chance of development... CrazyC83 16:26, 30 September 2005 (UTC)

At Last: Peace
The Atlantic goes quiet for the first time in a month. There's another possible record for you: longest period of sustained activity. We now watch to see if any of these disturbances wants the number '19' or the name 'Stan'. There is brief peace in this tropical war, but how long will the stalemate last?

E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 22:40, 26 September 2005 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure it'll be for long:, , . Ouch. -- RattleMan 23:02, 26 September 2005 (UTC)


 * Upper level winds too strong for that wave, says NHC. The Caribbean storm has the best chance, and even that is iffy. Deep convection from that system has diminished in the past several hours.


 * E. Brown, Hurricane enthusiast - Squawk Box 03:22, 27 September 2005 (UTC)
 * The Carribean system is looking more and more impressive today - still looking for a good west surface wind on the south side of the system... but the convection looks good. A little coriolis force, keep the sheer off and this baby is in business. Looks like it will be pretty compact, too. Of course, if this thing gets over the loop current, watch out. --Mm35173 16:35, 27 September 2005 (UTC)
 * Outflow looks really good in all four quadrants now, but the convection is still largely limited to the north side of the now-closed circulation. Lets hope this thing gets sheared apart before the convection wraps all the way around. The Caymans need a break after Ivan. -- Mm35173 4:09 PM EDT 27 SEP 2005 (not logged in, and I live in EDT, for Pete's sake)

Permanent Lull?
Hmmm, looks like the Atlantic basin is getting to be inactive... Could this be the season's end? If it does... It will only end at Rita... look at the dry air and wind shear out in the Open Atlantic and the caribbean invest is not doing any good at all. - RoswellAtup 05:55, 27 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I sincerely doubt it...we were saying the same after Ophelia and BOOM! CrazyC83 15:40, 27 September 2005 (UTC)


 * I don't think BOOM is the right way to put it. There was only one cyclone that developed, Rita. Maybe an end to a lull, but not a boom. I don't think the season will end, though. Fableheroesguild 00:37, 28 September 2005 (UTC)


 * That 99L.INVEST looks interesting enough to me. The NHC did say that it's favorable in the next few days.  There's that and another system in the atlantic that the NHC's keeping an eye on, if not as an invest.  It's been looking a little better on Satellite data during every sweep...but I'll just have to wait and see.  -- Bladeswin 02:41, 28 September 2005 (UTC)

Considering the way Rita bombed out, boom is indeed a very appropriate word. Oh, and you forgot to mention Philippe, Fable. --<font size="2" face="garamond" color="#3979BF">tomf688 {talk} 21:34, 29 September 2005 (UTC)