Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

July
Welcome to July in the Eastern Pacific! As you can see, we have been off to an extremely active start. For the fifth time in history, five tropical storms formed before July 1, with a record two becoming Category 4 hurricanes and Elida becoming the earliest fifth storm in a season since Celia '92 (right, YE?) ! Now that's quite a way to begin the season! And I only see July becoming more active. My predictions - 8 depressions, 6 named storms, 5 hurricanes (counting a personal forecast for Elida), and 3 major hurricanes, with an ACE of ~55 (give or take 15). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:20, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm predicting a total of 6 depressions and named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Individual storm predictions:
 * Hurricane Fausto - July 4 > July 12 - Category 2 (100 mph) - No landmasses affected
 * Hurricane Genevieve - July 9 > July 16 - Category 1 (85 mph) - No landmasses affected
 * Hurricane Hernan - July 17 > July 29 - Category 5 (165 mph) - Slight effects in Mexico in its formative stages
 * Tropical Storm Iselle - July 19 > July 22 - Tropical Storm (50 mph) - No landmasses affected, eventually gets absorbed into Hernan
 * Hurricane Julio - July 26 > August 4 - Category 3 (120 mph) - Strikes Baja Peninsula as a Category 1
 * Tropical Storm Karina - July 31 > August 2 - Tropical Storm (45 mph) - No landmasses affected


 * I feel like I'm being a bit optimistic, but oh well. We'll see how this month will go, hopefully it'll be an epic/awesome month for the EPac!  Steve  820  ✉   05:00, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Anddrew your are correct, earliest storm #5 since Celia 92. but Steven, you're a little bit optimistic. Even though the GFS has showing pre-Douglas and Elida striking land at some point, I'd be surprised if we get a landfall in MX. Not counting Elida and Douglas, I am going with 4/1/1. I think we are in a set up that does not favor intense system, and favors a lot of systems, albeit weak ones due to northerly ITCZ and vertical instability. Looks like the midsummer drought out there that you typically see 3-4 weeks from now. YE Pacific Hurricane  05:13, July 1, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (Mid-Atlantic)
This wave formed mid-Atlantic, currently over Isthmus of Tehuantepec. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:18, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Currently over Honduras. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI could become a tropical wave later this week well to the southwest of Mexico. Chances of formation for the next five days are now at 30%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:23, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's already a tropical wave. This AOI does look like it has Fausto potential in the long run, probably next week, but it needs some time to organize first. But right now I'm more focused on Arthur in the Atlantic due to the fact it might be a destructive storm for the U.S. east coast. <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   04:50, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:00, July 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 0/20, I guess it probably won't develop :( But it still seems like it has a little bit of potential though. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:34, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Steve, not necessarily. Although it is moving rather fast westwards at 10 to 15 mph, development could still come, albeit very slowly. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:52, July 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Chances of formation for the next two and five days are now at 10% and 20%, respectively. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:54, July 5, 2014 (UTC)

(←)The AOI remains disorganized, and any development from it should be very slow to occur. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:36, July 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/20. Which means it has normal vision :P YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:14, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's going to take so long to develop that it won't become a tropical cyclone until it reaches the WPac! (Just kidding XD) But, this AOI is starting to bore me, I don't know if it will develop at all anymore. -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:19, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Invest'd. A cherry (60/60). Really likely to be a dud tropical storm in the middle of nowhere. God no. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:26, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * YE, shower and thunderstorm activity have actually been decreasing in Invest 99E recently, so I do not believe it has that great of a chance. But the way it is looking, if we get any increase of thunderstorm activity, the NHC will classify a tropical storm. Like Elida, Fausto should not ruin his image of a strong storm. Remember 2002? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:13, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * This could become a re-Erick should it become a TS, which is likely considering it is already producing gale-force winds. Heck, it even looks like Erick by satellite representation. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:21, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

Andrew, mind you thinking outside of the what the NHC says? It wasn't decreasing and look what we have now. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:28, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fausto
Upgraded. Likely to be weak. These kinds of storms tend to have a lot of ups and downs. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:28, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

I don't believe it will be that of a fail depending if it moves north or south, if it moves north shear will kill him but if it moves south it have a chance of becoming the third hurricane of the season. I just hope this season is not like 2010 when we got Celia and Darby and everything else was a fail. Btw looks like El Niño might not develop until October in the Atlantic if it develops, but sadly vertical instability have been bad but we will see.Allanjeffs 23:50, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * ATL nino events aren't as important when it comes to predicting the season. Regarding the actual El Nino, who knows at this point. Really, everything globally the past few years has been acting weird. Look at last years ATL hurricane season, or the EPAC overachieving the past 3 years in a supposedly inactive phase, or the lack of red meat ATL landfall, or the lack of activity in the AUS for proof. We've pretty much had El Nino conditions present since March, but it's probs not a real El Nino if it just stops here. Back to Fausto, I agree this could become a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:01, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Fausto is at 35 knots (40 mph)/1007 mbar (hPa) per the NHC. It is expected to turn north-northwestwards under the influence of a subtropical ridge. GFS and ECMWF are more westward with the storm's motion. Due to low vertical wind shear, warm SST's, and a moist environment, Fausto should gradually strengthen over the next three days and then weaken from there on out due to unfavorable conditions. The NHC expects a peak intensity of 55 knots (65 mph), but I see no reason a hurricane will not happen. But Douglas was also forecast to reach strong TS intensity, and you saw what he did. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:19, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't expect it to become very strong due to only marginally favorable conditions at best, but if it doesn't travel northward as much and try to go for Hawaii, shear might not have as much of an impact on it as NHC forecasts, and it could very well become a hurricane. While it could surprise us like Amanda and Cristina did, it could also pull a Douglas and bust. Most of the Atlantic is currently being dominated by dry air, and I expect this to persist for most of the season, but there could be a few African waves that manage to make it through, or we could have some cold fronts come through and produce some storms along the gulf and east coasts, a la 2002. Though I think this year will turn out to be like 2009 more than anything else. Ryan1000 07:46, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * While Fausto appears well-organized, ASCAT passes reveal the LLCC may actually be displaced from the main convection. A slight turn west-northwestwards is still expected for the next few days. Due to favorable conditions, aside from some heavy shear, Fausto should gradually intensify over the next two days, and then weaken due to increasing shear. Also of note is that some models are forecasting Fausto to degenerate into an open trough. If that happens, Fausto will no doubt be our season's third fail. Winds are at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) with a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa). The JTWC report the same winds, gusting to 50 knots (60 mph). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:57, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow, it just a pain to watch such a strong name epically fail. The cloud pattern of Fausto is very ill-defined, and there are no gale-force winds in any quadrant except the southeast. Based on ASCAT data, the storm's current intensity from my second post above is being held, but this might be generous because they could easily be higher winds in the unmeasured southeast quadrant. Fausto is beginning to curve west-northwestwards, and it should continue to do so under the influence of a low- to mid- level ridge. Afterwards, it should deaccelerate and begin to move westwards into the low-level trade wind flow. Warm SST's and vertical wind shear could easily favor intensification for the next 48 hours, but dry air will really slow down the strengthening pace. Over the next few days, Fausto should then consequently weaken due to increasing shear and decreasing SST's. Fausto, you better get your act together soon! Steve, if you thought Douglas or Elida were epic fails, Fausto is a true disgrace to tropical cyclones, unless he gets his act together soon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:43, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fausto, if you don't get your act together soon, you'll officially be a SUPER EPIC FAIL AND DISGRACE TO TCs! It looks like we might have our 3rd epic fail, and an extreme one at that. If you don't get your act together soon, Fausto, everyone on this wiki will laugh at you and call you names. You're about to be an even worse epic fail/disgrace to tropical cyclones than Douglas and even Elida if you don't get your act together, and you will also be a very laughable junk storm!! I'm just warning you, piece of sh!t storm. I wonder if I just made him very mad? Strengthen, Fausto, strengthen or else you'll officially be an extreme epic fail and disgrace to TCs!! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:57, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is what happens when systems mess with the ITCZ. They more often than not perish young. Fuasto is an epic epic epic epic fail. Douglas wasn't an epic fail though. It was a pest that was fat, so it stayed as a TS for a while. Fuasto is a disgrace to the EPAC I agree. When JMO comes around end of month, we better see more interesting tropical cyclones. Or else. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:28, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * I cannot stress enough how much of a fail Fausto is, at least so far. The current forecast has it lasting enough to enter the CPHC's area of responsibility. I have a feeling Fausto may not make it that far, due to the fact it is not organized right now and it has a truckload of dry air in front of it. But, we shall see. BigO99 (talk) 01:17, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * All the thunderstorm activity of Fausto have been taken by the ITCZ. It looks like it will be declared a remnant low in the next 12 hours if convection don't start firing. Douglas in my opinion was a fail. This season is turning like a 2010 hope its not.Allanjeffs 01:28, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * I kinda see what you mean, but 2010 was a La Nina year. This is some kind of El Nino/warm neutral year. If you actually looked at the shear and vertical instability graphs you'd see the conditions were much more favorable now than then. 2010 had frigid SST's, high shear, and by October, the basin was practically winter. 2010 didn't get a storm in July, we're 1/3 thru the month, and a TS forms in a neutral MJO. Only place where shear is unfavorable is where Elida formed, Douglas was too large, but was both an under and over performer, and Fausto is playing tango with the ITCZ. 2 of the 3 had they been smaller/more southerly ITCZ would likely have become a hurricane. Regarding the storm itself, it won't become a remmant low. It'll go straight to an open trough. The convection isn't fully attached to the ITCZ quite yet. Re-developing convection shouldn't be hard; maintaining a closed LLC will be. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:39, July 9, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fausto
RIP. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  09:40, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just wow. All of Fausto's convection became disorganized overnight and detached from the center. In fact, ASCAT data shows this storm may even be an open trough right now! Even with low shear and warm SST's, Fausto is unlikely to gain any more intensity due to poor thermodynamic factors. Another scenario, as suggested by GFS and ECMWF, is that all of Fausto's circulation dissipates and we are left with just a trough. The system is more likely to remain moving westwards due to it becoming more weaker and shallower. Fausto's current intensity is 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h)/1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). Also, just for trivia, this "Fausto" will be the first non-Hurricane Fausto on record, assuming nothing out of the ordinary happens. Fausto, may I say this - I am very disappointed in you, you epic fail! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:57, July 9, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Fausto
Wow. Just wow. Epic facepalm. Satellite imagery, scattometer data, and a GPM overpass indicate Fausto has become a trough of low pressure. Since it is moving west-northwestwards into increasing shear and decreasing SST's, regeneration is not expected. Fausto, you are an epic disgrace to all tropical cyclones! You are much better than this!!! Please! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:54, July 9, 2014 (UTC)

What a disgrace is this system so far of the 6 named storms this is the worst. Such an epic fail, this name was throw down the toilet hope it doesn't happen with the next systems to come.Allanjeffs 15:33, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ha. Haha. Ha ha ha ha. Umm... yikes. Guess Amanda and Cristina had too much fun and ruined it for everyone else lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:00, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * An EPIC EPIC EPIC fail. THIS IS NOT THE ATL. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:48, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * What is going on? The CPHC states ex-Fausto should not regenerate, but they give it a near 0% chance of coming back to life in the next 48 hours. What? Is that not a little contradictory? Personally, due to increasing unfavorable conditions, I believe Fail Fausto is done for good. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:26, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fausto the faulure, that's how I'll remember this one. Although, it did give me something to look at for a day or two...nah nvm, this one sucked. Terribly. Ryan1000 20:53, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Fausto is now off the CPHC outlook. Bye, fail! ;) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:07, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Bye Epicfailsto!! Ha ha. This belongs in the hurricane hall of epic fail along with his best friends Joyce (2012 Atl), Karina (2008 EPac), Jerry (2013 Atl), Karen (2013 Atl), and Franklin and Jose (both 2011 Atl). Looks like Amanda and Cristina ruined the party like Dylan said above. Lol, Fausto is such a disgrace I could laugh at it all day! My reaction to this epic epic fail disgrace/abomination of TCs-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:54, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 26)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:31, June 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:22, July 7, 2014 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
30/40. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:12, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hopefully it becomes Fausto...-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:21, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/20. Lame. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:22, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower and thunderstorm activity in this invest has really become disorganized. Any development at all should now be very slow to occur as Invest 98E moves west-northwestwards at 10 to 15 mph. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:14, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * It won't form IMO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:31, July 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Showers and thunderstorms have become even more disorganized in Invest 98E. It has just 48 hours to develop before unfavorable conditions take over. Chances of formation have dropped to 10% for the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:37, July 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree with YE, it won't form. Genevieve will come later and hopefully it won't fail! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:59, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hold on a second, organization just got slightly better organized in Invest 98E. It could develop a little more today before upper-level winds become less conductive (Honestly, after Fausto, I just want this thing to die!) . Its chances of formation for both the next two and five days are now at 20% (20%). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:23, July 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 98E is really trying to make a run for it. Cloudiness and showers have increased in the system this morning. However, with colder water and strong upper-level winds taking over soon, it's chances for formation remain the same. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:13, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really really hope this doesn't develop or it'll be just a Fausto 2.0. Luckily environmental conditions are getting less favorable, so looks like it won't become anything! Yay!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:00, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's done for. Douglas is spewing NWterly dry air all over this crap. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  17:07, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Invest 98E is literally throwing all its got. The NHC claims shower activity has become more concentrated and the wind circulation is now a little more defined. But with it encountering cooling SST's and intensifying upper-level winds, any more development should be very unlikely. Its chances of formation for both the next two and five days remain at 20%. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:20, July 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds have been established over Invest 98E, and no more tropical cyclone development is anticipated. Chances of formation have dropped to 10% for both the next two and five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:27, July 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 98E is dead per the NHC. It is off the TWO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:00, July 11, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (Mid-Atlantic)
Over Isthmus of Tehuantepec. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:01, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Parallel to 98E, right behind it. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:29, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Merged with 98E. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  17:07, July 10, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (June 30)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:32, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Over 65-70W. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Off Nicaragua. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:01, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * S of Mexico; GFS develops this in the CPac. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:30, July 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * 10/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:19, July 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI is rather disorganized, and only slow development is expected. I would expect it to form in the CPac. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:32, July 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree, it might form in the CPac. Development's only going to be very slow seems like, so a TS might not form until the CPac. Or it might not develop at all. We'll see...-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   18:40, July 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/50. Does it wanna be Genevieve or Wali? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:23, July 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * 50/60 Whatever becomes will be weak and might be just a td or a 45mph storm.Allanjeffs 08:45, July 15, 2014 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
50/60. And an investment. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:57, July 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still not sure if it'll be Genevieve or Wali. Anyways, it could be a named storm by tomorrow, though I expect it to not get past 50 mph. Here comes another weakling! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:20, July 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Down to 40% might not form at all.Allanjeffs 17:44, July 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Chances are at 40/50, and development is seems less likely from this system. However, I'm not giving up on this one just yet. Simlover123 21:56, July 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, Invest 90E is very disorganized, and conditions will only be conductive for gradual development over the next two days. Afterwards, upper-level winds will become unfavorable for development. If this does form, it will most likely be Fausto 2.0. Also, chances for formation have fallen to 30% for the next two days and 40% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:59, July 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Odds have fallen furthur to 20/20, and it is about to cross into the Central Pacific basin. So, if it does develop, it will probably be Wali and not Genevieve. Simlover123 15:14, July 16, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 90E has crossed into the CPAC basin. It is still very disorganized, but conditions should be conductive for gradual development until tomorrow. From there on out, upper-level winds will prevent development of the invest. If this becomes something, as I said above, it will most likely be Fausto 2.0. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:21, July 16, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really don't think it'll develop anymore, instead the upper-level winds will rip it apart. If it does become something in the very little time it has left it'll only be a depression, but I think nothing will come out of this after all! Maybe Wali or Genevieve will come later but they should form soon, hopefully soon! :) -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   04:43, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

WOAH! It has just been upgraded to 80%!!! This is what the CPac says about this invest:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK For the central north Pacific, between 140°W and 180.

1. An area of low pressure located about 1000 miles east southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii has been moving west northwest at less than 10 mph. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the disturbance has become better organized overnight. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression may be forming. Advisories may be initiated later today for this system if current trends continue. After 24 to 36 hours, upper-level winds are expected to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.


 * Formation chance through 48 hours, high, 80 percent.

Looks like we have Fausto 2.0 in the making. Which really sucks because the basin has produced too much fails lately. But hey, at least it'll be our first CPac storm since the burst of activity in August 2013, assuming it does develop! Even if it does become Wali, like I said before, it'll be a fail because upper-level winds are expected to rip it apart in the next day or so.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:28, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Expect this to become td 1 at coming hours, but it will be a fail expect no more than a weak ts. Thank God this develop in the Cpac and not in the Epac or Genevieve would had been a fail.Allanjeffs 19:18, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * CPAC storms don't fail. Expectations are too low for them to fail. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:35, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression One-C
"The Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be initiating advisories at 11 am HST on newly formed tropical depression One-C, located about 1300 miles east southeast of Honolulu." WHAT?! I swore this invest was at 20% last night. What the heck is going on?! The JTWC has issued a TCFA on Invest 90E, stating enhanced infrared satellite imagery depicts deep organization of convection over a consolidating LLCC. Formative banding is wrapping into the LLCC per a TRMM microwave pass. SST's are favorable for additional development, and most models show a west-northwestwards movement towards Hawaii. Winds are estimated to be at 20 to 25 knots (25 to 30 mph) with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa) per the JTWC. What happened?! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:49, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Maybe the CPac is trying to completely surprise us I guess :P But anyways, its going to be an epic fail should it be named. I'm getting sick of these epic fails.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   20:26, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * It won't be much more than a weak TS anyways, as shear is going to pick up quite a bit in the next few days. It won't even come close to Hawaii, but most storms in the Pacific don't do that anyways, due to the high pressure that typically shields the islands and the shear that comes out of the south pacific to tear up hurricanes that try to come close to them. Ryan1000 20:38, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * In reality, the chances were much higher all along. You have to remember that the CPHC is of nowhere near the intelligence of the NHC. You can't expect much from them. Shear right now is very favorable and systems in the deep tropics can spin up quickly (and as we saw with Fausto spin down quickly, though that is not as true in the CPAC). Like most storms that forms in this part of the world, it is close to the Great Hawaiian Shear; this shear is likely to kill it in a day or so. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:51, July 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * The first advisory has been issued by the CPHC - winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) and a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg). One-C should continue moving northwestwards for the next couple of days. Slight strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, with a potential to reach tropical storm intensity tomorrow before unfavorable conditions take over. Luckily, no land areas will be affected. Hats off to the first CPAC system in 11 months! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:09, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Wali
YE said it well. TS one hour after the first advisory.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:24, July 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * A RECENTLY RECEIVED ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 35 TO 40 KT WITHIN

THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...CPHC HAS UPGRADED IT TO TROPICAL STORM WALI. WHAT IN THE NAME OF GOODNESS?! I swore I was last looking at a tropical depression one hour ago! What the heck is going on? Winds are at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) and the pressure is at 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg). JTWC reports winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). Gale-force winds extend 90 miles (160 km) from the center. The forecast CPHC peak has been raised to 50 knots (60 mph). Wali is not going to be the fail I thought... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:38, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'm not very surprised it became Wali due to the fact I expected it to happen from the time it was upgraded to 80% this morning. I predict a strong tropical storm (around 65 mph) but HOPEFULLY it becomes a hurricane! And I could just imagine Andrew's reaction if it was upgraded to a hurricane by tonight (I really don't think that'll happen though, but it seems slightly possible!).-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   23:41, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * At least for now, I doubt it'll become a hurricane. It should peak around 45-55 knts though. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:17, July 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict at most 60mph. I really doubt this is going to be a hurricane.Allanjeffs 06:04, July 18, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this isn't going to be a hurricane looks like. It's still 40 mph but I predict a peak of 50 mph before upper-level winds eat it up this weekend.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   15:23, July 18, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wali still has some deep convection, but its LLCC is located over the western edge of a fluctuating ball of convection. Dvorak estimates and recent satellite images have prompted the intensity downgrade to 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h)/1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg) per both the CPHC and JTWC. Low-level trade flow will eventually prompt a westward motion of Wali towards Hawaii. However, due to increasing wind shear, which is already affecting the system, should prompt complete dissipation within 72 hours. Wow, this was the fourth and fourth straight fail of the season. Stop wimping out, EPAC, like you have for every storm since Cristina! >:( Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:41, July 18, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Wali
Wali efficiency - cutting storm duration by 80%.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  20:47, July 18, 2014 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Wali
Poof.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:40, July 19, 2014 (UTC)

And its goneeeeeeee.Allanjeffs 05:57, July 19, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow. That shear basically stripped Wali down to a vortex. Neither the CPHC or SAB could obtain any Dvorak estimates. Since ex-Wali is moving towards Hawaii, its remnant trough may pose a rainfall for them as it moves northwestwards. Wali, assuming you do nothing to Hawaii, you are an epic fail of a tropical cyclone! Say hi to Fausto for me, will you? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:36, July 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * If you blinked you missed it. Wali was such a pathetic cyclone, and is a major disgrace to all TCs! Looks like we have Fausto version #2.0. I really don't think Hawaii will get that much impact anyways. #EPICFAIL -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:06, July 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Seriously, Steve? Is a hashtag really necessary? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:32, July 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think hashtags are fine even though they don't work on Wikia. Andrew even used it in his edit summary.-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:23, July 21, 2014 (UTC)
 * I would personally rather not see hashtags used on here for hashtags' sake. I'm not against lightening the mood (heck, I regularly try to inject a dose of humor on here; humor adds flavor), but something rubs me the wrong way about hashtags being thrown around where they don't really belong. But hey, that's just my opinion. Do whatever floats your boat. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:41, July 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't have a problem with hashtags tbh they actually make me laugh when I see it for the epic fail.Allanjeffs 23:43, July 21, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (July 3)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:13, July 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * In the EPAC. Could be a re-90E. It may have a slight chance. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:40, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific  <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:06, July 22, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (July 5)
New wave off Africa. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:01, July 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * The AOI is on the TWO, located 700 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. However, development should be slow to occur over the next several days as it moves generally westwards at 10 mph. The NHC gives a 10% chance of formation in the next two days and 20% in the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:30, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't know if it'll develop or not. Might be Genevieve in the long run though but let's hope it doesn't fail! -- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:39, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * It'll be another disgrace to TC's. Mark my word. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:50, July 20, 2014 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
We have an investment. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:42, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * And it's getting better organized. Chances of formation have risen to 20% for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:56, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * This might be our third hurricane of the season, it better not fail. Two of our best names Elida and Fausto have fail with capital F. Hernan is another name that is really strong, I am waiting this to become hurricane Genevieve hope it does not dissappoint.Allanjeffs 20:11, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * I don't think this will become a hurricane. Shear kicks in about 36-58 hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:16, July 20, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's down to 10% (20%). Maybe it won't develop, which is awesome since it won't be another name stealer!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   16:25, July 21, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity is very disorganized in Invest 91E, and any development will be very slow due to its large size. Chances of formation for the next five days have fallen to 10%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * Shower activity in the invest has consolidated a little bit, but any more development should remain rather slow as it continues westwards. However, the NHC has upped the probability for development to 20% for the next two days and 30% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:16, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/40. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:04, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think it'll become Genevieve in a few days. I hope it won't be another disgrace to TCs. Future Genevieve, please be a hurricane!-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:52, July 22, 2014 (UTC)

AoI: Tropical Wave (July 9)
New wave off Africa, also mentioned in the Atl section. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  17:09, July 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS develops this in like 10 days I think. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:44, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * In EPAC. Behind 91E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI is on the NHC five-day outlook. They state it could become a low pressure area later this week and then move westwards to west-northwestwards over the coming week. Chances of formation in the next five days are at 20%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)


 * Chances of formation for the next five days are now at 30% per the NHC. This looks like a potential candidate for our next tropical cyclone. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:17, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/40. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:56, July 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is a potential candidate for Hernan (or Genevieve if the above 30% (40%) invest doesn't develop).-- <font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   17:54, July 22, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (E Carb)
GFS is aggressive with this in the EPAC. Moved off of Africa around July 12, and in the E Carib atm. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Atlantic forum link: 1 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)

AoI:Tropical Wave (C ATL)
In C ATL. Moved off around the 15th. Too early to tell if it make it to the EPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Atlantic forum link: 2 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * This AOI has become TD Two in the Atlantic. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:39, July 22, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Tropical Wave (July 19)
Left Africa yesterday. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:49, July 20, 2014 (UTC)


 * Atlantic forum link: 3 Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:09, July 20, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  21:10, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * All - 0%

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * 4) Douglas 0% Was okay.
 * 5) Elida 0% Fail
 * 6) Fausto -3.14% an epic epic epic fail.
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

I agree with Dylan. It's way too early for this section, but I'm still gonna post mine anyways:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 17:08, July 19, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.
 * Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired.
 * Elida: 0% - Epic fail!
 * Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said
 * Wali: -∞% - See Fausto


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's mine (because I want to get a head start (Sorry, Dylan)): (i'll remove the underline when we're further in the season)
 * Amanda: 0%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land.
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- currently active
 * leeboy100 (talk) 17:21, June 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

Eh, we don't have much right now, but I can't resist retirement predictions, they're fun as hell:

East Pacific:


 * Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic.
 * Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said.
 * Douglas - 0% - ^^
 * Elida - 0% - Nothing of note.
 * Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more?

Central Pacific:

Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Alright, here are mine as of June 30:
 * Amanda — <1% Nope.
 * Boris — ≤1% Nope.
 * Cristina — <1% Nope.
 * Douglas — <1% Nope.
 * Elida — ≤1% Probably nope.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel.
 * 2) Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub.
 * 3) Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe.
 * 4) Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay.
 * 5) Elida - 0% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she miserably failed. Not even Mexico witnessed anything from her!!!
 * 6) Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway.
 * 7) Wali - 0% - Unless something big happens in Hawaii, Wali will be the CPAC Fausto.

We have enough storms for me: --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise.
 * Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is.
 * Douglas: 0% -
 * Elida: 0% -
 * Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm*

Here's mine: - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it.
 * Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough.
 * Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed.
 * Elida: 0% - She didn't even try.
 * ??? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * My predictions for this season.


 * Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her.
 * Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one.
 * Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land.
 * Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast.
 * Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail.
 * Fausto.???? we will see but looks like a fish.
 * Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC)