Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Future Erick
10% atm. Isaac829 E-Mail  23:40, July 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Wow, this season is wrapping up fast! For all of us that tracked Eric in 2007, you know the drill :D. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:41, July 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * The most anticipated storm of the year is a few days from arrival. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:43, July 1, 2013 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested. We waited six years for this storm! Better not be a dud like your historical counterpart! - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  00:15, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

I am crossing my fingers for a "Hurricane Erick". If it does become one, someone should notify SkyFury... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:18, July 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yes, Sky was very upset when the last Eric was a dud. - HurricaneSpin  (Talk)  02:40, July 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Models are showing a hurricane about this it better be.btw people I believe this will be like 2008 that both the Atlantic and Epac end with the same total of storms.Allanjeffs 06:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now 30%. (see text below.) Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:06, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Every other Erick failed, will this be the first Erick to not fail? I'm not sure what to expect of this. Most of the models initially take Erick to becoming a hurricane, but only a cat 1 or 2 as of now, while remaining off of Mexico. Ryan1000 15:03, July 2, 2013 (UTC)

Looks like Erick will be a potent hurricane imo probably be the first major.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) 50% now. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Getting close. Time to get an article ready! YE Tropical Cyclone  02:47, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * It still need time by Wenesday it will be ready.Allanjeffs 04:54, July 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * 97E's organization is real good. Currently, it has been upped to a 70% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Come on, Erick! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:35, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fantastic news, well kind of. I probably expect Erik to become a Category 3-4-ish because of the may Cat 1s were are getting right now. For more information, here is a map.  Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 20:51, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erick_70.png


 * 97E has gotten really organized now. It already looks like Tropical Depression Five-E on satellite imagery. Currently, it is at a 90% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. In fact, the NHC predicts our fifth tropical depression will be upon us later today. By the way, happy Independence Day to all American users! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:06, July 4, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Five-E
Wow looks like the name Erick would not achieve hurricane status unless it intensify rapidly.The NHC is predicting a peak as a mid grade tropical storm.This name really has bad luck hope it streak end this year.Allanjeffs 15:01, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now td 5 expect Erick this afternoon or tonight.Allanjeffs 14:49, July 4, 2013 (UTC)

And now the NHC has confirmed the development of Tropical Depression Five-E. Sorry, SkyFury, unless this depression pulls a Hurricane Wilma, Hurricane Felix, or Cyclone Ului type explosion, we'll likely have to wait until 2019 for a Hurricane Erick, based on the NHC forecast. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:25, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * It better. Six years of waiting and Erick better pull it off. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  03:01, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick
Hope Erick fails :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  04:06, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Erick its pushing its way to become a hurricane.Allanjeffs 04:33, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's showing an eye-like feature. Isaac829 E-Mail  04:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Update: Erick is at 50 knots/998 mbar. He's already stronger than his 2007, 2001, 1989, and 1983 precedents (The 1983 Erick had no pressure reading) a.k.a. this Erick is the second strongest "Erick" ever. The storm's also brushing Mexico. Come on Erick! Please become a hurricane! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:29, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew,Erick would probably be a hurricane this afternoon or night,I knew it will be strong it will probably become a cat 2 or even a major.Allanjeffs 15:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erick is mad it's wiki article got merged, so it's coming back with a vengence. YE Tropical Cyclone  16:53, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick is currently at 60 kts (65 mph)/997 mbar. In terms of windspeeds, this Erick is the strongest "Erick" ever. Pressurewise, Erick has 3 mbar left to go. Also, the NHC expects a 70-kt system from the storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:12, July 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Erick's filled out the pressure gap; he's now at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar. Yep, strongest Erick ever. --HurricaneMaker99 20:55, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Oh my goodness, Erick is at 60 kts (70 mph)/993 mbar! This Erick is already strongest "Erick" ever, by pressure AND windspeed! Come on, Erick! The moment you've waited for over 30 years is hours away! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:54, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ah, the good life Andy. He is even expected to become a hurricane, that Erick. Could he beat Princess Cosme's EPAC record as the strongest storm this year? He WILL smash her record into pieces. I have the latest info here:


 * ERick_party_ii.pngERICK_party.png speed probability table, could even become a Cat 3 here. And he has Bud '12 in his DNA! What do y'all expect from Erick here?


 * Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 23:23, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

The 5:00 PDT advisory just came out...and no Hurricane Erick. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:41, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still not a hurricane. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:49, July 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Still hasn't happened yet! I'm starting to question if Erick's going to become a hurricane at all. The NHC discussion mentioned that Erick's been having trouble becoming vertically stacked... --HurricaneMaker99 10:18, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Erick
Erick, you finally did it! Good show, boy, good show! They've updated the ATCF files to reflect that Erick became a hurricane at around 06z. The new advisory intensity is 70 kts, 984 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 14:56, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * The 30-year streak has broken! Now Erick needs an article. Isaac829 E-Mail  15:20, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

Congrats, Erick did it! Hopefully, Mexico doesn't get hit too badly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:53, July 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Told ya everyone!  Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 21:01, July 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, I went away for 4 days on my Independence Day vacation (150th anniversary of the Battle of Gettysburg), and I missed out on quite a bit. Looks like this is the first Erick to not fail. Erick is expected to remain offshore of Mexico, so I doubt they'll be hit with anything more than a few waves near Cabo San Lucas. Dalila is all but dead. Looks like 94L won't hae enough time to make it before it ends up in Texas, but 95L in the Central Atlantic really worries me in the long run. The tropics are starting to pick up steam. Ryan1000 00:58, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Erick (2nd time)
Spent ~24 hours at peak intensity before dropping back down to a TS. Currently at 55 kts/993 mbar, becoming less organized. --HurricaneMaker99 19:27, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Erick is expected to make landfall around Baja California, as you can see here:


 * Erick_landfall.png I have this FRESH from le NHC:


 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;line-height:normal;text-align:center;">...ERICK BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...

TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      EP052013 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.  So this CLEARLY means that Erick's peak is a Category 1 (FINALLY Erick is a hurricane now) and we have now officially ended the 30-year streak of "Erick being a flop." But... look what's happened!


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">No_dalila_erick_only.jpg you can see on the photo on the right, Dalila is no longer a tropical cyclone, meaning that she has dissipated. However, advisories are still being issued for Erick and we hope that, when he makes landfall in Mexico later on today or tomorrow, he will not be as damaging as THAT EPAC storm in 2011. (you know which one I'm talking about, don't cha?) So the current information on Erick...


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">WIND SPEED: 65 mph (55 knots)


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">PRESSURE: 993mb


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;">MOVEMENT: west-northwest

<p style="margin-left:24px;">


 * <span style="line-height:14px;color:rgb(0,0,0);font-size:12px;"> Rara Hooves FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 19:51, July 7, 2013 (UTC)

Currently crossing the 26°C isotherm today and will be entraining quite some dry air. The circulation is already choked. So, say goodbye to Erick! Six years of waiting and finally it has actually done something. We wont be seeing another Erick till 2019, which means this will be the "Erick" for another six years. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:45, July 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, time to say farewell to Erick. Thanks for finally becoming a hurricane!!! And Liz, the NHC actually does not expect Erick to make a landfall. If you look closer at the forecast cone, the dots remain offshore. And impactwise, Erick will make Hurricane Paul from last year look like 2010's Hurricane Karl. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:52, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

As Erick weakens, the system is beginning to affect Baja California. Also, note this glaring typo in the NHC advisory: ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING... Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:44, July 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's slowly dying down, I'd say it hasn't 36 hours of life left. Ryan1000 18:14, July 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Erick
And now, Erick has become a tropical depression. Currently at 30 kts/1004 mbar, all watches and warnings have been discontinued for Mexico, and the system should be nothing but a memory shortly. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:08, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

The Epac will probably be quiet the rest of July with one more next storm as the Atlantic continues to produce.Allanjeffs 04:05, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick
Erick go bye bye. --HurricaneMaker99 15:15, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Out its time to the Atlantic to shine :PAllanjeffs 15:31, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Btw I believe for the first time there have five name storms four hurricanes and no majors yet.Allanjeffs 15:33, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Probrably, but I think we'll get a MH later on in the season. And hats off to the first Hurricane Erick in history. =) Ryan1000 16:09, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, Erick will be remembered for its intensity, but impactwise, should be long forgotten. And Allan, this is not the first time a Pacific hurricane season's first four hurricanes did not become majors. To my knowledge, 2008 and 2003 also had this event occur (but the latter is arguable, as no majors occured during the season) . Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:13, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * He meant the first time there were 4 hurricanes, yet no majors, out of the first five storms in the season. Well, 2008 also had that, I'll admit, but 2003 didn't have a single hurricane until Ignacio in late August, with no hurricanes out of the first 8 storms in the season, just like the 2011 AHS (but that year did have some majors). Ryan1000 20:17, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:Middle of Nowhere
I'm glad that I checked the CPHC today, because there is actually something going on in the world! 0% though, predicted to die out at sea. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:10, July 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * This ain't going to develop into anything because of strong upper-level winds. If this becomes Pewa, I will be extremely surprised. -- Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:44, July 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Not gonna happenAllanjeffs 06:15, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this is not going to become anything at all. It will just die out at sea eventually. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 18:51, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Still near 0%. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:10, July 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * At near 0% still. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:56, July 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's dead.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 00:15, July 23, 2013 (UTC)

AOI:In the mid-Pacific
As Flossie threatens Hawaii, we have a new guy here in the Eastern Pacific. It is currently at a 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Anyone predict our seventh tropical depression? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:58, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * I don't expect Gil from this for the time being. But it could develop later on as it follows Flossie's footsteps. Ryan1000 22:18, July 29, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 20% looks like Gil might come sooner than expected Ryan. It doesn't look to become anything too significant though. Gil isn't really known for becoming a major hurricane, probably because it's never been one. But still, I don't think this reincarnation of Gil will be any different. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:21, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

99E.INVEST
Well, guess what? This guy exploded overnight! Moving over favorable conditions, it has gotten much better organized. We could easily see a tropical depression in the coming few days. It currently has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. And as Otto said above, the name Gil is a pretty unlucky Northeastern Pacific tropical cyclone name. Using data from NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks tool, this what I found:

Given that (using HM99's number system in Flossie's section) :

TD = -1 TS = 0 C1 = 1 C2 = 2 C3 = 3 C4 = 4 C5 = 5

Then:

Gil 1983 = 1 Gil 1989 = 1 Gil 1995 = 0 Gil 2001 = 2 Gil 2007 = 0

Therefore, Gil's average intensity in the Northeastern Pacific is 0.6, or tropical storm intensity. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:04, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Woah, didn't expect this so soon. This could even become our first major. Ryan1000 13:03, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven-E
Dude, this thing exploded FAST! It's now a depression, and expected to become a hurricane on Friday. Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 14:56, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's forecast to weaken after it reaches a peak of 65 kt, though. Maybe this won't become the first major Hurricane Gil. And Andrew, I'm flattered that you used my system! Your math was slightly off, though: ((1+1+0+2+0)=4)/5 = 0.8. Personally I would round anything from 0.5 to 1.4 to Category 1, which would make that Gil's average intensity, but I can see why you'd keep it at TS strength since it's technically below 1.0. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:15, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * And going by knots (which is probably a better system), (80+75+55+85+40)/5 = 67 kts, which is a low-end Category 1. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 15:19, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * This depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Right now, it has a 42% chance of becoming a hurricane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:24, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm getting Eugene-ish vibes on this one. It's only expected to peak as a cat. 1, but it defies predictions and explodes. Conditions aren't that unfavorable in front of this one. Ryan1000 17:13, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * I am sick and tire of this systems only reaching cat 1 intensity this season.Allanjeffs 18:52, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * UGHHHHHHHHHHH -_- You're right Al. Gill will be a flopper this season! -_-!  Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 18:59, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I don't know what to expect out of 7-e. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:52, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gil
Increased organization in Tropical Depression Seven-E = a 35 kt/1006 mbar Tropical Storm Gil! We could see a weak hurricane from this storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:45, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Aye, I'm thinking 70-75 kts out of this one. Kiewii! 20:51, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * Earliest seventh storm of an EPAC season since Genevieve in 2008. We're running at a fairly decent clip, though I'm not that familiar with EPAC climatology. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:10, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yes! We have Gil. I think this will become a hurricane, and maybe peak at around 80 mph. And since this is the earliest 7th named storm since 2008, I think we will have a very active season!  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 21:21, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

I do expect a very weak category 1 hurricane, maybe a 75 mph at the most. Gil seems to be in a somewhat favorable conditions and is going to move to the northwest. Gil isn't going to be anything close to Flossie with its impact to Hawaii, but it isn't going to be a flop. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 23:01, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Actually its looks like its developing an eye so this might be our first major if RI occurs.Allanjeffs 23:07, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * EPac typically has 4 storms in July, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Thus far we've had 3 storms form in July (4 if you count Dalila's June cross over), and 2 hurricanes. But, no majors. Like I said I have a feeling this could Eugene out and become a cat. 3 or 4. Ryan1000 01:50, July 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * no, we've had 3 storms, and 1 hurricane. 2013 PHS has been nothing above average at all. It will likely become a major if it does so in August. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  01:57, July 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * Well, the 2nd hurricane being Dalila, which clearly became a hurricane in July, although forming in June, I don't count it as a June hurricane. Ryan1000 03:20, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Up to 50 kts but still expected to peak at 65 kts Kiewii! 09:10, July 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * I would say up to 55 or 60 kt at the 21z advisory - looks like an eye is developing Kiewii! 18:55, July 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think Gil will become a hurricane tonight or tomorrow. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:06, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * At 5pm should be upgrade.Allanjeffs 20:22, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Hurricane Gil
Now a hurricane folks! Kiewii! 20:35, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Well, that was fast! I still do not expect a major hurricane, though, despite Gil's intensity jump. 95 kts/975 mbar sounds like a good peak. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Geez, this storm strengthened faster than I predicted! I now think this will probably become a Category 2, and it might even have a shot at major hurricane status.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 21:33, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * GILZILLA! Huzzah! We have a hurricane. This could become the first major of the season, seeing as he strengthened very quickly like Le Berto of 07. I thought it would be IMPOSSIBRU!!! Well done Gil, bro. By Friday, IMO, he sould become major. Guys? Raraahahahromaromamagagaoohlala, want your bad romance! FANMADE Flying derpy vector.gif 22:01, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Liz, Gil took 36 hours to go from tropical depression intensity to hurricane intensity. Humberto '07 took 18 hours. Paula '10 took 24 hours. Blanche '69 also took 18 hours. Finally, Ethel '60 took six hours. So Gil's intensification is fast, but not record quick. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:04, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Gil intensified faster than we and NHC expected. Gil is now a hurricane, category 1. Could round out as a category 2 before it's all said and done. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 23:54, July 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now at 70 kt/990 mbar, forecast peak raised to an 85 kt Category 2. I should note what forecaster Beven said regarding the intensity forecast for Gil: "THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS. THE FIRST IS THAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...SIMILAR TO THE GFS...WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24-48 HR. A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION... SIMILAR TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WOULD KEEP GIL OVER WARMER WATER AND IN A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SECOND FACTOR IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS OVER OR NOT...WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING A DECREASED CHANCE OF CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...EXCEPT AT 24 HR WHEN THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT GIL CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR AND GETS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST." Basically, Gil could peak anywhere from right here to major hurricane strength. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:14, August 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * ...and it looks like Gil's opting for the former scenario! The intensity has leveled off since last night. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 16:12, August 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Why does Gil have to be so boring? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:45, August 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now it's 75 kt/988 mbar per ATCF. Tied with Cosme for the highest winds so far this season, but it's in 4th place pressure-wise behind Cosme, Erick, and Dalila. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:56, August 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * ...but the advisory intensity is unchanged from 8am because the convection has warmed greatly. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:48, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * cat 1 in the Epac is becoming pretty boring.Every hurricane has reach that intensity.Allanjeffs 23:09, August 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Ok, so the ATCF file was lowered to 70 kt, for 18z, but the 00z entry says 75 kt, 985 mbar, which would put Gil ahead of Dalila as the 3rd most intense storm of the season. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:32, August 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope Gil can become a Category 2, since all the hurricanes so far in the East Pacific only peaked at C1 intensity. It still has a chance to reach that category. C'mon, Gil!  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:11, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * And its down to 75mph looks like Gil has lost it chance into becoming the first major of the season.I  hope we don`t get in part with 2003.I believe they are only 2 years in which they were no majors in the Epac,but I doubt it will happen this year.Allanjeffs 14:38, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Expect Henriette pretty soon.Allanjeffs 19:17, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Currently, it is at 10%. However, Tropical Depression Seven-E will steal the system of all warm waters. I do not expect our eighth tropical depression just yet. Also, to Allan and Liz, there were many Pacific seasons where no storms exceeded Category 1 intensity. 1966 had seven hurricanes (Adele, Blanca, Connie, Dolores, Eileen, Francesca, and Helga) but they were all very weak. 1968 had twenty tropical storms but only six hurricanes (Fernanda, Joanne, Liza, Naomi, Pauline, and Rebecca), none past Category 1. For comparison, 2011 had nine fewer tropical storms, but six major hurricanes. Several other Pacific seasons (namely 1950, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965) had this happen, but I am really sure all of those were because we did not have today's technology. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:30, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some major hurricanes might have been missed back in the 50's and 60's. And I agree Andrew, 7-E will be the more dominant system. This could be a TS though, but won't be as strong as Gil (7-E) will be. Ryan1000 19:35, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1968 has two major hurricanes really, Pauline and Liza. Just that some files from the NWPC and JTWc were messed up. Back on topic, 90E looks good. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  19:54, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * And it jumps to 40%! Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * Woah, not bad, EPac is shaping up nicely. I think 7-E and this system could be very similar to Bud and Carlotta, respectively, of July 2006. 7-E will probrably become a powerful system, and 6-E-to be will be weaker but still worth tracking. Ryan1000 20:17, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Expect this to become 8E pretty soon.This one and Gil looks like twins.Allanjeffs 20:56, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * WTF? This was just at 10% a few hours ago! Anyway, I think this will become Henriette, but only be a weak system.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 21:18, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I am actually curious about whether or not this could end up being the dominant system. Judging from this satellite view of Gil, 90E looks slightly larger. Could it overtake Gil like Erick did to Dalila? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:30, July 30, 2013 (UTC)


 * Depends on which one becomes stronger faster also which one is larger like you mention and how fast do they move.Allanjeffs 22:32, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Could potentially become another named storm, Henriette might be lurking around the corner. But if the system interferes with Gil it might just destroy itself and Gil. It seems to be moving at a slower pace than Gil so I don't think that'll be an issue. It's only at 40% right now, so we'll have to wait to be sure. <font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 23:05, July 30, 2013 (UTC)

Well, this invest is becoming Gil's little sister! It has upped to a 60% percent chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. By the way, assuming this invest becomes a tropical storm tomorrow, this would make 2013 the fastest paced hurricane season in terms of named storms since 1992, which got its eighth storm (Hurricane Frank) on July 14. (Note that 1994's eighth named storm, Hurricane Li, also formed on July 31, but it was not upgraded to a tropical storm until around August 8) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:08, July 31, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 40%Allanjeffs 12:08, July 31, 2013 (UTC)


 * Maybe Gil is starting to become dominant over this one. I still would expect some development from this but not more than a minimal TS if anything. Ryan1000 13:46, July 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, looks like Gil is becoming dominant. This might develop a little bit, but I don't think it will become Henriette.
 * Also, check this out! It looks like a tropical storm already. And this image is of 90E, not Gil. Steven09876  (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:12, July 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * That image is from nearly a day ago! There might be a chance it is upgraded in the post-season though?? Kiewii! 19:15, July 31, 2013 (UTC)
 * Back up to 50%, though Gil's domination means that this invest could have trouble intensifying enough to become a tropical cyclone. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:16, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

Remains at 50% within the next 48 hours, but has a 60% chance of formation within the next five days. Kiewii! 11:48, August 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * I think this could become Henriette when Gil slows down. Ryan1000 17:52, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

This invest is currently at a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. I believe we might see something from 90L. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, August 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * That's down from 60%, though. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:33, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

The invest has been downgraded to a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Gil is eating this system alive! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:25, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Down to 30% and may not develop after all.Allanjeffs 14:39, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

August
Is here, but aside from Gil crossing over, nothing's new. Ryan1000 06:30, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

The NHC is now issuing experimental GTWO's which predict a tropical cyclone's formation probability in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:24, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: West of Hurricane Gil
This AOI popped up on the TWO. It has a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:37, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

I believe its 91E now.Allanjeffs 02:20, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * This could become Pewa after moving into the Central Pacific. If it develops before reaching the CPac (which I don't think will happen), it could become Henriette (or Ivo if the above invest develops).  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 04:16, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Allan, Wunderground does not have this invest put up yet on its tracking map. However, it has a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days. Also, it looks like this AOI could become a re-Lala (1984), Iniki (1992), Li (1994), and/or Lana (2009) - all four of those storms begun as EPAC tropical depressions, but were named in the CPAC AOR. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, August 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * The only invest 91 is ex-Dorian off of Florida. This one isn't an invest yet, but it could be one very soon. Ryan1000 14:03, August 2, 2013 (UTC)

Eerie Comparison
Okay, I know this section is slightly off-topic, but it relates to Eastern Pacific activity. Anyway, assuming 92E becomes a tropical storm and Mexico, I would just like to point out the following comparisons between 2007 and 2013 so far:
 * Both seasons had its first two storms form in May (and what is even creepier is that it is the same two names!)
 * Both seasons started off with a "Tropical Storm Alvin".
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin stayed out to sea.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Alvin reached a peak of 1003 mbar (however, the 2007 "Alvin" had peak winds of 40 mph, whereas the 2013 "Alvin" had peak winds of 50 mph).
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara formed in the last week of May.
 * In both seasons, the storm named Barbara made a landfall in Mexico.
 * Both seasons' third storm was a "Hurricane Cosme".

If anyone has additional comparisons, or any comments and/or questions about the comparisons or even this section in general, please feel free to leave them below. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:49, May 27, 2013 (UTC)


 * If only the Atlantic was in the same boat lol. We haven't even had Andrea yet there, but it's possible, according to GFS at ~284 hours, we could see Andrea pull a Barry '07. Ryan1000 00:26, May 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Barbara was a hurricane ................ YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  04:49, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * I believe this comparison was made prior to Barbara even being named, so yeah. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:55, June 24, 2013 (UTC)


 * No, I last updated my list when Barbara was a tropical storm. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:59, June 24, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Now is the time to do this: Isaac829 E-Mail  18:22, July 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - No.
 * Barbara - 0% - No.
 * Cosme - 0% - No.
 * Dalila - 0% - No.
 * Erick - -∞% - No.
 * Flossie - 10% - Wasn't that bad.

ERMAHGERD!! My predictions. More to come...
 * Alvin? #No.
 * Barbara? #No.
 * Cosme #No.
 * Dalila? Hey there Dalila, hows it like near Mexico? A rather weak Category 1 not doing anything but spin fish? #NO.
 * Erick? #No.

Rara Hooves 20:28, July 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * I would personally still wait a little bit on this, unless Barbara turns out to be something big for Mexico. Ryan1000 01:05, May 29, 2013 (UTC)

Now that we have a reasonable number of storms, I will post my predictions:

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:20, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1) Alvin - 0% - Try again, Mr. Seville!
 * 2) Barbara - 1% - Being the easternmost landfalling hurricane and causing four fatalities as well as $1 million (2013 USD) in damage is not enough, especially by Mexico's standards.
 * 3) Cosme - 0.1% - Three fatalities will not convince Mexico to retire this name.
 * 4) Dalila - 0.05% - The fact Dalila did not kill anyone hurts its chances.
 * 5) Erick - 0.2% - 0.1% for the one fatality reported, the other 0.1% is to show my respect towards Erick for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * 6) Flossie - 2% - Hawaii got a huge scare from the system, but it was not that bad at all in the end.
 * 7) Gil - TBA - Still Active

Here's my predictions!

Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 19:03, July 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Hell no.
 * Barbara - 1% - 4 deaths and $1 million in damage ain't gonna do it.
 * Cosme - 0.5% - 3 deaths are not enough.
 * Dalila - 0% - Nope.
 * Erick - 0.6% - 0.5% for affecting Mexico, the other 0.1% is for Erick finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 2% - Affected Hawaii, but it wasn't that bad.
 * Gil - ? - Still active

STO12's Predictions:
 * ALVIN: 0% No impact whatsoever, no retirement here.
 * BARBARA: 20% Not enough impact to Mexico to cause a retirement.
 * COSME: 5% Far from land impact, no retirement for Cosme.
 * DALILA: 5% A weak hurricane, but off the coast of any land mass, no retirement.
 * ERICK: 15% Caused some impact to the Mexican coast, but not enough of an impact to create a retirement.
 * FLOSSIE: 10% Caused rare but minimal impact to Hawaii. Flossie isn't really retirement worthy.
 * GIL: ? Predictions for Gil will be released once the storm has dissipated.

<font color="#4169E1">ST✪12 02:08, July 22, 2013 (UTC)

Ryan Grand Speaks: Those are my calls. Ryan1000 16:14, July 28, 2013 (UTC)
 * Alvin - 0% - Sorry, which one was Alvin again?
 * Barbara - 4% - Deserves some respect for it's impacts in Mexico, but they hardly ever retire names...
 * Cosme - 1% - Caused indirect impacts due to it's massive size, but enough to retire? Nah.
 * Dalila - 1% - See Cosme.
 * Erick - 2% - 1% for the death, 1% for finally becoming a hurricane.
 * Flossie - 10% - Some impacts on Hawaii, but nothing too severe.
 * Gil - ?? - Hasn't affected land yet, but it may reach Hawaii in the long run.

I'm just gonna give every single storm 42%, because we have absolutely zero idea what the WMO will do in the EPAC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:28, July 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, some EPac retirements are completely random (Knut of 1987 taking the cake), but I hope the WMO is more serious with storms from now on. I could see Flossie getting retired if it is severe enough for Hawaii. Ryan1000 00:15, July 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure if Flossie will make landfall anymore because the NHC predicted for her to make landfall on a previous prediction, then she was predicted to veer north on the next prediction (but will still make landfall), and on the latest advisory image it looks like it will brush the state instead of making landfall. <font face="trebuchet MS">Jeffrey was here What's your iOS operating system? 06:43, July 29, 2013 (UTC)


 * Alvin: 0% fish
 * Barbara:2% death nor damage was enough
 * Cosme:0% not effects in any place aside from waves
 * Dalila: 0% She was one of the smallest tc in the Epac and his bro Cosme was one of the biggest aside from that nothing at all.
 * Erick 0% nop another fish
 * Flossie:5% damage in Hawaii was from minimal to non existant.not even a landfall occur
 * Gil??? So far looks like a fish.
 * Allanjeffs 13:38, August 1, 2013 (UTC)