Forum:2017 Pacific typhoon season

October
New month has began, but Typhoon-Land is quiet for the time being. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:19, October 1, 2017 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
New invest in the Philippine Sea that's up on Tropical Tidbits & NRL, but not on JTWC. Models seem to take it into the Philippines and southern Vietnam but there's not much intensity support (yet). Probably another invest that will fail to develop. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:56, October 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dead ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)

95W.INVEST
Another one in the Philippine Sea. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:48, October 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Low chance according to JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:08, October 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now medium chance and moving into the upper Philippines. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Dead. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:05, October 9, 2017 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
Located near Pohnpei ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:07, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * On JTWC with a low chance. This could be something significant, but only time will tell. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Medium chance. I have a bad feeling... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * Nevermind, it's off JTWC. Maybe still could become something in the long run, but I kinda doubt it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
Yet another invest (with a medium chance on JTWC). It's very close to 95W - they are both near the upper Philippines. This basin is receiving a triple threat... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
JMA has declared it a TD. It might be a weak Khanun moving through the South China Sea. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:39, October 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * That basin is not being viewed right now due to Nate in the Atlantic basin. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:45, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * It seems that Atlantic is really stealing all the attention this year... 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 18:50, October 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * That's true but I like to give near-equal attention to all basins that are producing activity. So thus I'm still paying an ounce of attention to this basin while the Atlantic is busy with Nate and a system near the Azores. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:08, October 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * TCFA issued as it moves through the South China Sea. This could be a repeat of 22W (Nando). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:13, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 23W
Now JTWC has it up as a TD. Forecast to briefly become a TS (or possibly be named "Khanun") while taking a similar path to last month's 22W. But unlike 22W, it is not forecast to pass through Hainan and will instead pass a bit south of it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:40, October 8, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone 23W
Unfortunately, it didn't strengthen to a TS. It made landfall and dissipated. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:37, October 10, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, it fortunately didn't become a TS. If it did, much more fatalities would've occurred. The death toll from this awful storm is at 58. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:10, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * The flooding was very severe over there. This just proves that even weak depressions can be disastrous... R.I.P. to everyone who died. :( ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
New invest in the open Pacific Medium chance of development as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Odette
Now named Odette by PAGASA. Recognized by JMA as a TD. Still an invest per JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:01, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Khanun seems likely to form from this or the below invest. The WPac is kicking up again. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:48, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * TCFA issued. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:26, October 11, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette)
Now a TS according to JMA & JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:03, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's currently passing through the very northern Philippines as a weak TS. This is forecast to be yet another South China Sea storm. But this time, it could be a formidable typhoon. Hainan and Vietnam should prepare, yet again. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, October 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * In the South China Sea and 50 mph (10-min)/985 mbars. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:24, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette)
Now an STS. Khanun will probably become a typhoon. T G  2 0 1 7 11:07, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Khanun (Odette)
C2-equivalent as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:53, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette) (2nd time)
Downgraded to a severe tropical storm; still a C2 in the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:27, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Khanun (Odette) (2nd time)
Downgraded to TS strength according to JMA - 40 mph (35 knots)/1000 mbars. Passing near Hainan at this moment and might even die out before reaching Vietnam. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:37, October 16, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of Khanun (Odette)
And it has died out before reaching Vietnam. 1 fatality has been reported but damage totals are not released yet. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:08, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Yet another invest. Currently west of Invest 98W and east of the Philippines. Low chance of formation (per JTWC) as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:51, October 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Off of JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:25, October 12, 2017 (UTC)

91W.INVEST
Another one up on Tropical Tidbits. This seems to have quite a bit of model support in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:54, October 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Medium chance of development now. This may turn out to be a big storm. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:59, October 13, 2017 (UTC)
 * 91W quite honestly scares me. It's got all that ocean in its path & all that model support...~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:27, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * And here comes the first storm to ravage the Philippines this season. I thought we were going to get one earlier, but I guess Lan will be the first C4/C5 typhoon hit them. T  G  2 0 1 7 11:09, October 14, 2017 (UTC)
 * High chance of development now. The Pacific is now picking up... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:22, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 91W)
Now a TD according to JMA. JTWC still considers this as an invest, but not for long. This is shaping up to be a scary storm in the coming days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:51, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 25W
And it's now a TD per JTWC's standards. Forecast track shows that it will not hit the Philippines and instead will make a northward turn by midweek. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:44, October 15, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lan (Paolo)
Now a TS according to JMA. Still a TD per JTWC though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:26, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is honestly looking very concerning... JMA takes it up to 95 knots (110 mph), JTWC to 115 knots (130 mph). It could easily begin RI or even explosive intensification. We could be looking at the storm that beats Noru and Talim's intensity in several days time. Forecast track takes it on a trajectory towards Japan, so who knows what they might receive in the very long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:43, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * There's a crapton of shear roaring over Japan right now and it's expected to continue for a while, so while this could become strong out to sea, it will probably weaken significantly or even dissipate before hitting Japan, or turn out to sea. Ryan1000 06:06, October 16, 2017 (UTC)
 * Good. It better not do anything to land or islands if it's going to be a monster. Current intensity is 45 mph/994 mbars. Both JMA and JTWC agree on that windspeed. But JTWC is now taking it up to 130 knots (150 mph)! Here comes our next super typhoon, and I root for it to get as strong as it can get as long as it spares any islands or land... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:11, October 17, 2017 (UTC)

Typhoon Lan (Paolo)
Lan has been upgraded to a Typhoon. Not looking great at the moment but we'll see what happens. - Garfield
 * Intensity according to JMA and JTWC is 75 mph, and pressure is 970 mbars. Lan is heading into very favorable conditions, and its look should improve as time goes on. Ready to RI? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:17, October 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still the same intensity as my previous post, and it has been named "Paolo" by PAGASA since the 16th. But the JTWC now forecasts a possible landfall near Tokyo as a 100 knot, 115 mph beast on the 23rd. I really hope that fails to materialize... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:20, October 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Following the development of a well-defined eye in microwave imagery, JMA has upped the 10-min winds to 70 knots, and JTWC has brought the 1-min winds to 75 knots. However, the JMA's forecast peak has dropped to 90 knots, while the JTWC's has dropped to 120 knots. Currently the system doesn't have a clear eye on visible satellite imagery; there was a large, ragged eye earlier but a convective burst just covered it. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:13, October 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * Lan seems to be underachieving. Still 70 knots (80 mph) according to JMA. I guess it probably won't be the super typhoon that the JTWC once predicted. But I guess that's a good thing because we don't want Japan to really suffer in the long run. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:45, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

Now a C2; 965 mbars. Lan has performed below expectations (so far). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:33, October 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Finally RI'd, up to 110 kt with the JTWC at 15z, and 85 kt per JMA. No doubt will be a C4 by 21z. Kiewii 17:59, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

It’s a C4. Leeboy100 Hoping for recovery. 01:10, October 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Storm is heading straight for Tokyo. If it keeps up this path it could cause tens of billions in damage. --Whiplash (talk) 03:34, October 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Woah, didn't expect this much intensification! JTWC windspeed is now 135 knots (155 mph), which is on the brink of C5 intensity. JMA has it as only 95 knots (110 mph). This could be a nightmare for Tokyo in the long run. They need to prepare, pack up belongings and find shelter for this could go as far as being Japan's costliest typhoon on record (if the current track keeps up). Tokyo is a megacity, and just imagine what a major typhoon striking such a big metropolis could do in terms of damage... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:24, October 21, 2017 (UTC)


 * Sadly it seems Lan is the Hurricane Igor of the West Pacific. It peaked at 155 mph when data likely said otherwise. However, it still counts as the second super typhoon of the year. Still has a lot of ground to cover if it wants to reach average. - Garfield


 * i think maybe the reason why Lan isnt a category 5 is because of its massive size. Its bigger than Tip! -Emmaelise401
 * I don't often post here, but this storm grabbed my interest when I noticed that the latest track forecast from the JTWC takes this right into Tokyo as a 120 mph category 3 storm. There could be quite a bit of disruption in Tokyo from this storm but hopefully it won't be too terrible for the city. Steve, Tokyo has a very large (more than 20 feet tall) seawall to protect them from the storm surges of typhoons, so I wouldn't go so far as to say Lan would be a Katrina-like storm for Japan. Even Typhoon Ma-On back in 2004, which, surprisingly enough, took almost exactly the same track as Lan and also hit the world's largest city as a 120 mph cat 3 typhoon, only caused a little over 600 million USD in damage to Tokyo. There would have to be a category 5 direct strike on the city like Vera did southwest of Tokyo in 1959 to see a Katrina-like storm disaster for the region, and hopefully we won't see anything like that with Lan. However, even if Tokyo's seawall protects the city from Lan's storm surge, Tokyo should still watch out for strong winds from Lan, which could inflict extensive damage. Ryan1000 23:56, October 21, 2017 (UTC)
 * Glad that Tokyo constructed a large seawall in case something monstrous would occur. But Lan could still be devastating nonetheless since it's forecast to arrive tomorrow in Tokyo while still a formidable typhoon. I can see there being a potentially big damage bill coming our way after Lan passes through. Hopefully potential damage stays below $1 billion, like Ma-on '04. BTW, the storm's intensity is down to 105 mph (JMA) 145 (JTWC), 930 mbars. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:28, October 22, 2017 (UTC)

Wow, Lan is almost as large as Tip in 1979. Lan's diameter of gale winds is at roughly 1,270 miles, 110 miles shy of Tip's 1,380 miles. 100% eggplant certified - Prism55 10:13, October 22, 2017 (UTC)


 * The Huge Typhoon Lan getting ready to make landfall in Japan. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:05, October 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * This thing made an...erm, LANfall near Tokyo as a 105 mph category 2 storm earlier today, causing torrential rains and strong winds but hopefully little surge damage. Hopefully it's not nearly as bad as Ma-On. Ryan1000 02:20, October 23, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lan
Surprised that no one updated it, but Lan turned Post-Tropical about 12 hours ago. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:37, October 23, 2017 (UTC)

92W.INVEST
Located just north of the island of Yap. Doesn't have as much model support as 91W. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:31, October 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dead ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:27, October 14, 2017 (UTC)

93W.INVEST
Located near Guam. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:46, October 16, 2017 (UTC)


 * Code orange (JTWC). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:19, October 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Code red, TCFA issued. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:20, October 19, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 27W
Now a TD according to both JTWC and JMA. Could steal the name Saola. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:45, October 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Upgraded to a TS (in the SSHWS/JTWC scale). Still a TD per JMA standards. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:53, October 20, 2017 (UTC)
 * Shear has been trying to tear apart this little bugger. But the conditions will improve starting in about 2 days from now, allowing it to potentially become Saola (if it can survive of course, but it can also regenerate in the haven if it dissipates). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:33, October 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now forecasted to be a typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 20:24, October 22, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Saola
Now named Saola. Ryan1000 11:08, October 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * Yes!!! We finished the whole list! I hope the list will start over again. Still forecasted to be a typhoon. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:27, October 24, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm excited that we finished the list for the first time since 2012. Unless we pull a 2010, Damrey will come this year. WPac doesn't really quiet down until December or so. Anyway, this is also looking concerning for Japan in the long run. Hopefully it's nothing bad for them. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:53, October 24, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's gradually intensifying. Up to 50 mph/992 mbar. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:15, October 25, 2017 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
Located just west of the central Philippines. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:13, October 17, 2017 (UTC)


 * Code yellow (JTWC). ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:19, October 18, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now code red. This may develop into a TD. If it does, this will be named Quedan by PAGASA. Not sure if it will become Saola though. Expected to move eastward (into central Philippines). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:38, October 18, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 26W
Now a TD according to JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:20, October 19, 2017 (UTC)

Remnants of 26W
And it's dead due to the giant shear machine that is the WPac this year. ~ KN2731 {talk} 10:14, October 19, 2017 (UTC)
 * JMA or PAGASA never even declared this system anything at all. What a failure tbh. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:45, October 20, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
It is already technically past halfway through the season, so I guess it isn't wrong to add in retirements now. T G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Grading colors: <font color="#049">A+++++ , A++ , <font color="#094">A+ , A , <font color="#390">A- , B+ , <font color="#CF0">B , B- , <font color="#FE0">C+ , <font color="#FD0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , D+ , <font color="#F70">D , D- , <font color="#F20">E , F , <font color="#500">Z ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5  )

International names:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Muifa was a epic fail that affected the Caroline Islands, but no damage or fatalities occurred.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Merbok caused $38.2 million in damages and one fatality, which is considerably low for a storm striking Southern China. I don't expect this to go at all. Becoming a Severe Tropical Storm prevents Merbok from getting a lower grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 80% - Nanmadol caused more damage and caused the same amount of fatalities as Typhoon Nabi did, and it got retired. Yes, other storms that struck Japan like Talas didn't cause as much damage but caused more fatalities. When it comes to Japan, damage is the key factor for retirement.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#049">15% - There is a very slim chance of this being retired. The reason it isn't higher is because of a low damage total, and a low amount of fatalities for the area that Talas struck. overall, Talas was a very underachieving storm.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : Grade: <font color="#049">A+++++ Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - From a Category 1 minimal typhoon to a Category 5 super typhoon. It didn't seem possible to me, but it happened. Best storm I have ever witnessed. Unfortunately, two fatalities occurred, but that isn't enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : Grade: B+ Retirement: 0% - The first of the forecast defying storms. Kulap was a beautifully formed tropical storm that stayed near the International Dateline most of its life.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : Grade: <font color="#500">Z Retirement: 40% - Sonca struck Indochina very hard for being so weak. Due to Sonca's slow movement, 30-40+ deaths have been reported in that region. Sonca also caused some of the worst flooding in Thailand in years. Due to those statistics, there is a moderate chance of Sonca being retired, but due to Thailand's track record, it is likely that Sonca won't be retired.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Roke dissipated before landfall, and it looked better as an invest than a TS. I'd call Roke an awful FAIL. Hopefully Roke will be used for a strong fishspinner typhoon next time around.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - Nesat was a very minimal typhoon that struck Taiwan, and didn't do much damage.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : Grade: F Retirement: <font color="#449">5% - Caused some damage in Taiwan and China after Nesat did, increasing damage totals in Taiwan from both storms.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : Grade: F Retirement: 0% - Nalgae failed to meet the forecast peak intensity. Nalgae didn't affect any land, so Nalgae will be back in 2022-2024.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : Grade: <font color="#FC0">C- Retirement: 0% - Failed to meet all forecasts and also managed to become the first ever Typhoon Banyan, resulting in a grade higher than a D+. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 14:06, August 18, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffc140">Hato : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 90% - Hato was the worst storm in half a century for Macau. That will most likely make Hato leave the lists, but then again it's China.  T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 00:46, August 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ccffff">Pakhar : Grade: D+ Retirement: <font color="#669">1% - We'll see what happens in Macau, as it just got whiplashed by Hato. Otherwise, Hato was a very pathetic storm. T  G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:10, August 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ffe775">Sanvu : Grade: B- Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Sanvu defied a few of the first forecasts for the storm, which was cool. Sanvu unfortunately killed someone in the Mariana Islands, but that won't get Sanvu retired.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Mawar : Grade: <font color="#F70">D Retirement: <font color="#889">0.01% - Another Pakhar.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Guchol : Grade: <font color="#500">Z- Retirement: 0% - Unfortunately, my two favorite names were used for crappy, pathetic storms this year. This pulled a Roke-esque fail (my first favorite name), and took the same path as Hato, Pakhar, and Mawar all over again. Tbh, these South China Sea storms are very boring this year. T  G  2 0 1 7 21:06, September 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Talim : Grade: <font color="#CF0">B Retirement: 30% - Talim was a very powerful typhoon, obviously, and struck Japan after weakening some. Two are dead, and flooding was very significant, which could prompt a slight chance of this storm's retirement.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Doksuri : Grade: <font color="#FD0">C Retirement: 70% - Although Indochina has a bad track record when it comes to retirements, this storm stood out. Doksuri is one of the more costlier storms in recent history for Vietnam, and with 112 people missing (and feared dead), Doksuri could be off the lists after this season. This storm was similar to Hato in ways, as it became the costliest storm in about a 10-25 year period of time. For Doksuri, there is still a 30% chance that the storm could not be retired because of storms like Lekima (2007) and Kammuri (2002).

PAGASA names:
 * All names: 0% - Have to meet the requirements. T  G  2 0 1 7 22:21, July 25, 2017 (UTC)

Final retirements:
 * Retired (81-100%): Hato
 * Maybe retired (40-79%): Nanmadol, Sonca, Doksuri
 * Honorable mentions (20-39%): None
 * Not retired (≤19%): All others T  G  2 0 1 7 21:14, September 25, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
50% or more=italics

Credit for TG and Steve for this:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="00CC00">0.01%/0.1% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , 7.5% , 10% , 15% , <font color="CCCC00">20% , <font color="FFFF00">25% , <font color="FFCC33">30% , <font color="#CCCC66">35% , <font color="CC9966">40% , <font color="#FF9933">45% , 50% , <font color="#CC9900">55% , 60% , <font color="#663300">65% , 70% , <font color="#CC3300">75% , 80% , <font color="#CC0000">85% , <font color="#990000">90% , 95% , <font color="#330000">99% , 100% , <font color="0000FF">TBA  )

(Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )

(Grading colors:  S, A++ , <font color="#00CC66">A+ , A , <font color="00FFCC">A- , B+ , <font color="00CCFF">B , <font color="#0099FF">B- , C+ , <font color="3333CC">C , C- , <font color="99CC66">D+ , D , D- , E , F , Z ) Note: The grading will come in December.

Here goes nothing...

International PAGASA That's it for now folks! Hi!-68.106.0.77 22:04, August 3, 2017 (UTC)

Formerly: 70.190.5.175

JMA names

 * Muifa - 0% - see you again in 5-7 years.
 * Merbok - 0% - same as above.
 * Nanmadol - 35% - if Nabi '05 got retired for causing similar death toll and cost of damage (30+ fatalities and nearly $1 billion damage), it is likely that Nanmadol may be retired. However, Talas '11 did not get retired, so I am doubtful if Nanmadol gets retired.
 * Talas - 10% - damaging, but Vietnam and the rest of Indochina has seen worse. (Also, its 2011 incarnation was more notable than this one.)
 * Noru - 8% - one of the best storms of the season. 2 deaths so far, damage still unknown, but uonestly Japan has seen worse. (Nanmadol '17 was even worse)
 * Kulap - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Roke - 5% - made impact, but not quite notable.
 * Sonca - 15% - see Talas. (Plus the fact that the retirement record of Indochina countries are not that good.)
 * Nesat - 20% - made impact too, and the damage totals are not yet fully reported. Its 2011 incarnation, just like Talas, was more significant in terms of impact. China has seen worse though.
 * Haitang - 10% - same with Nesat, although much weaker.
 * Nalgae - 0% - fish spinner.
 * Banyan - TBA - still active.

PAGASA names

 * Auring to Fabian: 0%. No, just no. See y'all in 2021
 * Gorio: 15%. Notable, but the Philippines had seen worse episodes of the enhanced SW monsoon. Maring '13 (Trami '13) wasn't retired, so why retire Gorio?
 * Huaning: 0%. Little impact to the Philippines.

Originally posted by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:29, July 31, 2017 (UTC).

Updated by Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, August 11, 2017 (UTC).

Retirements from Steve
Here's what you'll see when you click through all my tabs.
 * International: Lists retirement chances, grades and summaries for all storms excluding PAGASA storms.
 * PAGASA: Same as above, except for storms in the PAGASA area of responsibility.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Other Info: Explanations for why I did some things the way I did.

If you are on a mobile device and the page is on the mobile version, swipe to the very bottom and select "view full site" to view everything properly. International=
 * <font color="#00faf4">Muifa : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#A00">Z - Affected the Caroline Islands, but without damage/deaths. It lasted a week, which prevents me from giving this my worst grade.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Merbok : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#F80">D+ - South China has been through much worse, so don't expect a retirement here.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Nanmadol : <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F50">D - Has a pretty decent chance at retirement due to the damage and deaths it caused in Japan.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Talas : <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#F50">D - Retirement is doubtful. Its 2011 incarnation has done much worse.
 * <font color="#ff6060">Noru : <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#006">A+++(x∞)  - One of the most awesome storms I have ever seen, becoming the 3rd longest lasting WPac storm on record as well as really unexpectedly becoming a C5 super typhoon during an explosive intensification stunt. 2 reported deaths, but damage should not be too bad.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Kulap : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#F20">D- - A weakling, but defied forecasts and lasted for a week. This gives it a barely passing grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sonca : <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#F00">F - Although a failure, it reached a low pressure for a 40 mph storm as well as caused some impacts and deaths. Not as destructive as Talas though, but more deadly. The deaths and damage from flooding (including from Thailand's worst flash floods in years) could give this a slight shot at retirement. Indochina's retirement record is not that great however.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Roke : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#A00">Z - Pathetic failure, but brought rain to land and lasted two days. Also rose the HKO typhoon warning signal to 8.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Nesat : <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#FF0">C - Not much damage caused, but sadly 2 deaths.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Haitang : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#F00">F - Weak, but 50 mph/985 mbars make it avoid the Z classifications. Caused more damage in the region Nesat hit.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nalgae : <font color="#779">~0%  ,  <font color="#F00">F  - Weak fishie that was quite pathetic.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Banyan : <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#8F0">C+  - Became a C2-equivalent, but had potential to get stronger.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Hato : <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#0B3">B  - RI'd to exceed all predictions, but was very destructive. As one of the worst storms in Macau's recent history, 26 fatalities and a whooping $4.31 billion in damage will almost certainly make this leave the lists. This is a shoo-in for retirement. If it isn't retired, I would faint.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Pakhar : <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#F50">D  - Failed to meet initial forecasted intensity (but still became a STS). 8 deaths and $49.7 million isn't enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Sanvu : <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Mostly a fishspinner, but affected the Mariana Islands and caused a 33-year old woman to drown.
 * <font color="#ccffff">Mawar : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#F50">D - Minimal damage and no deaths. Won't be retired
 * <font color="#00faf4">Guchol : <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) - Slightly affected land like Mawar did, with no damage/deaths. But this was an epic fail, waste of a good name.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Talim : <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#00F">A+ - Caused some record 24-hour rainfall and caused hundreds of thousands to evacuate. This has a very small retirement chance.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Doksuri : <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Considered to be the "most powerful storm in a decade" for Vietnam. 11 were killed, and Vietnam was seriously impacted. The region doesn't have a great retirement track record however.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Khanun : <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0F0">B- - Doesn't appear that it was too bad throughout its path. Damage totals shouldn't be enough for retirement. But it unfortunately caused 1 fatality.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Lan : <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#00F">A+ - After becoming one of the largest TCs on record, it caused a mess in Japan. 7 deaths have unfortunately occurred, but I'm keeping my retirement chance a bit conservative until damage totals are released.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are only used in PAGASA (the Philippines region). Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



PAGASA=


 * All names: <font color="#888">0% - None meet the requirements yet.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate. Storms that are still active after a succeeding storm has dissipated will be added as a placeholder.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#888">0%, <font color="#779">~0% , <font color="#66A">0.00001% , <font color="#55B">0.1% , <font color="#33D">1% , <font color="#11E">2.5% , <font color="#00F">5% , <font color="#03F">7.5% , <font color="#07F">10% , <font color="#0BF">15% , <font color="#0FF">20% , <font color="#0FC">25% , <font color="#0F8">30% , <font color="#0F4">35% , <font color="#0F0">40% , <font color="#4F0">45% , <font color="#8F0">50% , <font color="#CF0">55% , <font color="#FF0">60% , <font color="#FB0">65% , <font color="#F70">70% , <font color="#F30">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#E01">85% , <font color="#D02">90% , <font color="#C03">95% , <font color="#B04">99% , <font color="#A05">99.9% , <font color="#906">99.99999% , <font color="#807">~100% , <font color="#707">100% 

'''The "0%" and "100%" retirement chances are the only percentages used in this basin. Check "other info" for the reason why.'''

Intensity colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ccffff">STS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#900">C5 (≥185 mph) 

Grading colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">Z , <font color="#600">Z-(x∞) '''



In summary...= Certainly Retired: Hato

Likely Retired: Nanmadol, Doksuri

Possibly Retired: None

Probably Not Retired: Merbok, Talas, Noru, Sonca, Nesat, Talim, Khanun, Lan

Not Retired: Muifa, Kulap, Roke, Haitang, Nalgae, Banyan, Pakhar, Sanvu, Mawar, Guchol, all PAGASA storms that have formed so far

Projected retirement chances for currently active storms (could always change as time goes on):


 * Saola - Probably Not Retired

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Certainly Retired": 90-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-85%
 * "Possibly Retired": 35-55%
 * "Probably Not Retired": 5-30%
 * "Not Retired": 0-2.5%

Other Info= ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:19, August 1, 2017 (UTC)
 * The 0% and 100% retirement chances (without the "~" symbol) are only used in the PAGASA (Philippines) basin because it's the only known basin with retirement requirements. These percentages mean that it is absolutely sure that a name will or won't be retired.
 * This absolute certainty does not exist in other basins. The vast majority of basins don't have retirement requirements, so ~0% and ~100% are the lowest and highest possible retirement chances. "~" means asymptotically equal - which means it is so close to being equal that it is basically, well, "equal". ~0% means that the chance of retirement could be as low as winning the lottery and being struck by lightning within the span of one minute. Same rules go for ~100%, but this time it's the chance that it won't be retired that is insanely tiny.
 * The color for the ≥185 mph C5 is made up and not part of the official color classification.
 * A+++(x∞) and Z-(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely.
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" instead of "F-" would be best for pathetic fails.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is one of the costliest or deadliest storms in history.

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Might as well make some calls:

JMA names: PAGASA Names: Ryan1000 22:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Muifa - 1% - Only minor effects to some islands in the WPac. It'll be back in ~6 years.
 * Merbok - 6% - Caused some damage to southern China but they've snubbed worse storms than this.
 * Nanmadol - 40% - Somewhat notable storm for Japan, though I'm not sure if this'll be retired. They did snub a few storms that were worse, but we'll see.
 * Talas - 5% - Wasn't too bad for Vietnam.
 * Noru - 25% - Temporary percentage; currently the damage isn't known yet, but fortunately the death toll is low, even lower than Nanmadol.
 * Kulap - 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Sonca - 5% - Not much different from Talas.
 * Roke - 1% - Even less than Merbok, and that's not going either.
 * Nesat - 5% - Caused some damage to Taiwan and China but they've seen much worse and it's not going.
 * Haitang - 1% - Caused some damage, but again, it's not enough.
 * Nalgae - 0% - See Kulap.
 * Banyan - 0% - Brought waves to Wake Island, but no damage or deaths were reported.
 * Hato - 70% - Don't want to be too generous since China has snubbed some destructive, billion-dollar storms before, but Hato did almost 3 billion dollars in damage to the area around Hong Kong and killed 26, so I believe chances are in favor of Hato going.
 * Pakhar - 7% - Caused minor impacts to southern China, but Hato was much worse.
 * Sanvu - 1% - Killed a person, but that's it.
 * Mawar - 1% - Minor effects in China.
 * Guchol - 1% - ^^
 * Talim - 15% - Caused some damage and deaths to Japan, but Japan has seen worse than Talim.
 * Doksuri - 75% - Was reportedly the strongest typhoon to hit Vietnam in 10 years and one of the costliest storms in the country's history, with more than 700 million dollars in damage to the country. I'd say this has a fairly good shot at retirement.
 * Khanun - 10% - Caused extensive impacts here and there, but it's probably not enough.
 * Lan - ?? - Still active, but taking aim at Tokyo as a 120 mph category 3 storm. Hopefully impacts aren't much different from Ma-On in 2004, which, surprisingly enough, fell short of a billion dollars in damage despite also hitting the city as a 120 mph category 3 storm.
 * All names - 0% - So far, no storm has met their retirement criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities, so nothing's getting retired from PAGASA yet.

Replacement names
-Nanmadol replacement options- Since Nanmadol is a landmark in Micronesia, here are some replacement options:
 * Sawarlap - A waterfall in Micronesia
 * Sawartik - The twin waterfall of Sawarlap
 * Winipat - A mountain
 * Lelu - Ruins in Micronesia (Best in my opinion)

-Hato replacement options- Since Hato is a name of a constellation (Columba):
 * Tori - bird-of-paradise/Apus
 * Okami - wolf/Lupus (My favorite)
 * Kitsune - fox/Vulpecula

I do know that it is much harder to figure out the replacement names of a WPac storm, but I tried to think of the best options. Tell me which one is your favorite. T G  5 YEARS OF TRACKING 23:40, August 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Forgot to add here, but my best picks would either be Sawartik or Lelu for Nanmadol. For Hato, I would choose Tori or Okami. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:43, September 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Unlike replacement names in other basins, guessing the replacement names of retired JMA names is almost impossible since they don't have to start with the retiree's first letter, or be Human/English names. But it's a good idea to look at the country affected to get an idea of what names could replace the name in question. I'll pick Lelu and Okami out of those names, but there are many more possibilities. Ryan1000 00:55, September 14, 2017 (UTC)