Forum:2018-19 Australian Region cyclone season

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Related Pages:
 * 2018-19 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season (Betting pools)
 * 2018-19 South Pacific cyclone season (Betting pools)

91P.INVEST
Code orange on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:40, September 24, 2018 (UTC)
 * It looks like this is in Papua New Guinea's region. If this develops and becomes named, it will not just be the first Papua New Guinea named storm since 2007, but also develop extremely early (equivalent of late March in the NHem). Insane... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:39, September 25, 2018 (UTC)

(See the South Pacific forum for this system's later developments.)

96S.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits in the TCWC Jakarta area of responsibility. No agency is actually noticing the invest ATM, but let's see what this does. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:01, November 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * If I recall correctly, it appeared briefly on JTWC in the past couple days. Now only on BOM's western region outlook, but no longer expected to do anything. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:55, November 17, 2018 (UTC)

97P.INVEST
New invest on JTWC. A lot of the forecast models including the GFS and HWRF say this will become a hurricane-strength storm, maybe even up to a C3 or C4. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 11:52, November 29, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Owen
And the first named storm of the Australian region season is here. Currently over the Coral Sea and is forecast to head west towards Queensland, but may not intensify much due to unfavorable conditions. It seems Owen won't have to wait until the 2022 AHS to be used...he's active right now in Australia! Ryan1000 17:28, December 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Owen just couldn't wait for his big break. Currently at 50 mph (1-minute) and 995 hPa.  Send Help Please (talk) 02:11, December 3, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Owen
Like I expected, Owen didn't last long due to less than favorable conditions, and now he's dead. Hopefully his future 2022 Atlantic incarnation does better. Ryan1000 22:26, December 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Owen's ghost is actually on JTWC with code orange at the moment. Maybe it wants one last shot before going away for a few years. ~  Steve 🎅   Happy  Holidays!  🎄  06:53, December 8, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Owen (2nd time)
Regenerated yesterday or 2 days ago, but is now a C2 on the AUS scale. ~ Roy25    Happy Holidays!!!  |  🎄     02:44, December 12, 2018 (UTC)


 * Owen's looking better organized by now and could intensify further in the Gulf of Carpentaria before making a landfall again at cyclone intensity (75 mph or stronger 1-min), but fortunately this area of Australia isn't particularly populated, though SST's are very warm in this area of Australia's waters. Ryan1000 10:44, December 12, 2018 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Owen
Owen's up to a severe tropical cyclone (cat. 3 on their scale, cat. 1 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale), and is forecast to become a 105 mph cat. 2 before making landfall in an unpopulated part of Australia. Ryan1000 04:40, December 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Owen (3rd time)
No longer a severe tropical cyclone after landfall, but Owen should move over Australia and back to the Coral Sea, where he'll probably dissipate for good. Ryan1000 07:01, December 15, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Owen (2nd time)
Wow, I missed a majority of my namesake's lifespan. Anyway, this is such an erratic and unpredictable cyclone that the BOM has noted he could regenerate once again. Owen 05:15, December 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Owen's circulation looks like it's all but gone now. He could still regenerate, but I won't count on it. Ryan1000 17:48, December 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Low 05U
Another tropical low is out there, but this shouldn't do much. I believe this is the one Tropical Tidbits has just off of Queensland in Owen's wake. Ryan1000 04:43, December 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it's gone now. Ryan1000 07:02, December 15, 2018 (UTC)

91S.INVEST
This invest is southwest of the island of Java, Indonesia right now. It might become something as it moves southwest itself, but it's nothing too serious right now. Ryan1000 04:43, December 13, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Kenanga
Now it's named Kenanga. Should remain out at sea, regardless of how strong it gets. Ryan1000 01:34, December 16, 2018 (UTC)


 * And it crossed into the SWIO basin (see that forum for further information on this storm from now on). Ryan1000 17:54, December 16, 2018 (UTC)

93S.INVEST
Another invest is currently north of Australia, but it probably won't do too much. Ryan1000 12:25, December 28, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Low 07U
A lot of tropical lows are currently forming off of northern Australia, this is the most prominent one as of now, expected to move eastward towards a landfall on the Cape York Peninsula and into the SPac basin. There are about 3 or 4 other Tropical Lows right now, but this is the only one that has been numbered, as it's already a TS by the JTWC. Ryan1000 13:40, December 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Penny
Now it's named Penny. Ryan1000 12:49, January 1, 2019 (UTC)