Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season

Welcome/Pre-season forecasts
Well, 2011 has been here; is there anyone who wants to make some early season forecasts, just to ramp up this forum's activity? I'm thinking it'll be something like 12-15 named storms, 4-7 'canes 2-4 majors and one category 5 storm. Anyone else want to make some calls? I also made the /Betting pools/ for this page... BTW. Ryan1000 20:16, January 18, 2011 (UTC)

I'm rather apprehensive about this season. I don't know if it's superstitions about this name list, the fact that there hasn't been a major hurricane hitting the US in 2 years and people might be getting complacent or that there hasn't been a catagory 5 in 3 years, but this luck has to run out sometime.

Still, I think we'll be sort of average to above average, with 10-15 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors and one category 5. So there's my musings on the season... I'm sort of new around this wiki, so I hope I did okay! HurricaneFiona 18:20, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, then, welcome here! Technically we haven't seen a U.S. major or east coast hurricane in 5 years, but if you consider Ike as a major hurricane knowing how bad it was, i'm not bad with that. Our luck streak may run out this year, but here's hoping it won't... Ryan1000 22:55, January 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * I thought 2005 was 6 years ago.. :P Honestly, I think this year will be a pretty good year, I'm going with 13-17 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes, 2-4 majors and 1 cat 5. (there hasnt been one since 2007, I still think its likely Igor will be upgraded to 5 though!) Yqt1001 01:52, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, yes it was 6 years ago, but for now, I consider it 5 because the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season really hasn't begun yet, and either way, when we do get our next east coast hurricane or U.S. major hurricane, it will mark the longest streak on record between any two hurricanes hitting the U.S. East coast or Major hurricanes all in all on record. Currently, the last east coast landfalling hurricane was Katrina in 2005, which was 5 years, 4 months, and 27 days ago. That technically isn't "6 years" yet, but either way, it is a long streak. Our last major was Hurricane Wilma over Florida, which was 5 years, 2 months, and 28 days ago on October 24, 2005. That isn't really "6 years" either, but again, it's an incredibly long streak. Ryan1000 14:06, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well of course its more like 5 years if you do it exactly. But did anyone read Jeff's Wunderblog post about what he thinks this season will be? He said that we are leaning towards seasons like...sadly I couldnt find the article again, but one of the possible repeat seasons were 2008. Looks like the US wont get away with just one more year. (Post-season changes made it so Earl upgraded to a category 1 hurricane before making landfall in Nova Scotia, making Canada have 2 hurricane landfalls!) Yqt1001 16:04, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was counting Ike. A storm doesn't have to be strong to be destructive (Allison). But when you put it like that, that is quite a long streak. I just hope those devastating hurricanes do some good, and persuade people to leave town as soon as a hurricane warning is declared. Oh, and 2008? It's looking more like we'll have another active year! HurricaneFiona 16:29, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, as much as I don't want to see a bad season, I also just can't see the United States going for yet another year without at least one signifigant U.S. major hurricane, or a hurricane altogether. I don't know what will happen in the 2011 AHS, but we have had one lucky year too many. We cannot evade these major hurricanes forever, and I fear 2011 is the final frontier. We will more than likely have at least one signifigant U.S. landfalling powerful storm in 2011, but if we manage to go another year without bad storms, great. Just great. As I said, here's hoping it won't be so bad for us... I do not believe we will get a 2010-like season in terms of numbers in this year, but I also do not believe we will go through this year without at least 5+ billion in damages. I believe a repeat of 2008 or 2004 may be upon us in this year, but I don't know about a 2005-like season(i'm talking impact, not numbers). When the next CSU and NOAA forecasts come out in March or April, we may have a better idea at what kind of season we're looking at. An ENSO event will close up on us in the later part of 2011, and that's why i'm thinking we will have a 12-15 storm season, a 4-7 hurricane season, a 2-4 major hurricane season and at least one cat. 5, since our last one was nearly 4 years ago, Hurricane Felix in September 2007. We will probrably not have a near-record year in the Atlantic, but it's hard for me to think the U.S. will get another lucky break this year. Ryan1000 17:19, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well a major US landfall will happen, and the sooner the better. If we go too many years without a landfall then people (I think it was you Ryan who said this) will forget what happened in bad years for US landfalls (2005), and not worry too much about a storm that could be the worst one yet (because of peoples ignorance). 2010 would've been a good year for a US landfall, 2008 is still sorta fresh in many peoples minds, 2011 might be pushing it a bit too far but in 2012, 2008 would probably be forgotten by people, and 2005 is barely remembered now as it is, so I could just imagine how horrible a category 5 landfall in any city of the US would be in 2012. So yeah, the sooner, the better. Yqt1001 19:11, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yes, I said that in the "Dead Basin Thing" section of last year's season. I said that not long before I mentioned to Darren23 that La Nina conditions don't signify a bad season. Although I do not think we will have 2010-level activity, I hope that people in the U.S. will remember 2008(specifically Ike) rather than remember all the way back to 2004/2005. If they do that, then our next major won't be as bad as it could be. I mean, a hurricane with the impacts of a major hurricane could make people remember as much as a major hurricane alone. If we get a lot of Ike-like storms this year, then that would be the worst case scenario IMO. In the 2008 season, Eric was really upset at people in the U.S. gulf coast for not using some "common sense" with Hurricane Ike that year. Ike was responsible for nearly 200 deaths on it's rampage, and over 100 of those were in the United States. The problem with Ike is it was only a category 2 hurricane. People in Texas in September 2008 were looking at Ike and they were thinking "hey, it's only a category two hurricane. It's not gonna be so bad. The Saffir-Simpson scale says category two's only cause moderate damages". The problem with these humans is that they don't judge hurricanes based on their size; they judge them based on their strength. With Ike, it was an enormus storm over the Gulf of Mexico, and with tropical storm force winds(not gale diameter) extending up to 600 miles out and hurricane winds 250 miles, it was the most massive Atlantic hurricane on record. Although it was only a category two at landfall, it's storm surge was equal to that of a normal category 4 storm. If Ike had stalled near or on the Texas coast, or if the coast of Texas was as vulnerable to storm surge as Louisiana in 2005, then it easily could have crushed everything and everyone in it's path. Ike easily could have been costlier and deadlier than Katrina had Texas been more vulnerable, or if it had stalled near Texas. Ike caused 37.6 billion in damages, and it could have been much worse from that as is. What would have happened if we had lots of Ike-like storms in 2011? What would happen if a repeat of Ike happened in Miami instead? Or Tampa? Or Savannah? Or NYC? If a hurricane doesn't get past category two or three intensity, then most people will not believe it will be a very destructive storm for their area. Many people think that the most destructive storms are always category 4's and 5's at their landfalls, ect. But Katrina was a 3 at it's landfall and you know how bad it was. Ike was a two. Wilma was also a three. My worst fear for 2010 is that we will have a lot of Ike like storms so not only people will underestimate their power, but will forget what has happened since 2004 and 2005. I fear this year will be an armageddon season for the United States. Ryan1000 21:37, January 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * Katrina was only a 3 at landfall, but it was a 5 at its peak. How is this relevant, because everyone thinks it was a 5 at landfall because of its peak, and that misconception is what is probably one of the most deadliest hurricane characteristics, as you start getting farther away from the season the last major landfall was. Ask people what category Katrina was at landfall in 2005, most will probably say 3, now most will say 5. Before 2005, most people didnt think category 3 was a bad hurricane, I mean its 2 categories from the worst! As we start getting farther away from 2005, people's opinions of what is a storm to run from and whats not gets stronger (what Katrina caused, is what saved many peoples life in Rita, but as we are rapidly approaching 6 years from then..people might not be as afraid of a storm like Katrina again, might be a bit different in New Orleans though). Now however, the gulf coast is a lot different from the east which hasnt really had a major landfall there since..I dont know, but it was a long time ago. I was talking to someone about Igor a while ago (this person lives in the NY area) and he said that at its current state (category 1), he wouldnt run from it, but a couple days earlier he said (back when it was a 4), if that storm was coming my way, I would be gone. He didnt leave when Earl came by, earlier in 2010. If Igor was in the gulf, I'm pretty sure the opinions of everyone near the gulf would be different than his. I'm pretty sure if Igor was at cat. 3 strength when it was plowing towards NY, most wouldnt leave, whereas if it were heading for New Orleans, most would leave. With most people predicting a landfall in North/South Carolina, this could be a wake up call for the East Coast, as the Gulf Coast gets a bit more comfortable with hurricanes, another major will hit them and make them uneasy again. It really sounds like a awful cycle, but there just isnt awareness about how bad hurricanes can be during the off season. Yqt1001 01:37, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * I would know that, but the worst areas for a hurricane to hit the U.S. are the most overdue areas, because they are the least prepared. New Orleans isn't this, but other places like NYC and Houston are. The most unfortunate thing is contrary to what many may believe, the city of Miami, Florida is actually the most overdue city in the entire United States for a category 5 hurricane. Although Miami has been hit with many major hurricanes in the past 100 years, the last time a hurricane completly demolished the city was the great Miami hurricane of 1926. The problem is many residents look back to Hurricane Andrew of 1992, but Andrew was too far south and too small to severely impact the Miami area. If a hurricane like Andrew hit south Florida again today just 10 miles north or so, then it could destroy everything in it's path. If a repeat of the 1926 hurricane happened in 2011, or Andrew just slightly farther north, then it could cause up to 157 billion dollars in damage. If Houston is hit with a repeat of the 1900 storm, then it would cause up to 101 billion dollars in damages. New York City hasn't seen a major hurricane since, well ever. The 1938 storm missed the city only slightly to the east. If that storm had hit NYC directly, we could have had a billion-dollar name come to us a lot earlier than when we did get our first one in 1965. If we have a repeat of any past storms in this season, it will be a horiffic year to bear. The Gulf coast is vulnerable, but the thing is, when a hurricane hits the Gulf of Mexico, it has to make landfall somewhere. Rarely do storms enter the gulf and die without making landfall(Henri 1979, Jeanne 1980). Therefore they can become prepared easier. When hurricanes reach the east coast, if they miss land from a cold front, then the only land out to sea is Bermuda, or Newfoundland/Nova Scotia if they go far enough north. In other words, hurricanes can give a false sense of security to east coast livers if they keep on missing and one eventually doesn't miss. Hurricanes can't "miss land" in the Gulf, so if one area dodges a bullet, another instead suffers from an unprescedented disaster. Ryan1000 02:10, January 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Also, although I can't find the source on Weather Underground about what we could have Yqt, the CSU and TSR Forecasts that we had last December aren't looking so promising. They say we have a 73% chance we will get a major hurricane to make landfall in the United States this year. They also stated we have a 49% chance of an east coast landfalling major hurricane, a 48% chance of a gulf coast landfalling major hurricane, and a 46% chance that a powerful major hurricane will cross the Carribean as well. All of these are above the averages of last century. Also, there is a good chance the ACE index could be above average, 66% above average at that. We could have a helluva ride this year. Ryan1000 21:46, January 26, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaand yay!! The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has officially begun (as of now). Hope we get some more activity in the tropics... Ryan1000 00:04, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

Accuweather forecasts
The latest forecast from Accuweather.com from yesterday is still calling for an above-average year. More U.S. landfalls are expected from last year, as well. They're expecting 15-8-3 for 2011. It's nothing compared to the 19-12-5 stats we had last year, but above the 1900-now average of 10-6-2. The link is here. CSU's latest update will come out sometime in April, as will NOAA's, and by then we might have an even better view of what 2011 will be like. Ryan1000 20:03, March 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still above average, and again any activity in the tropics will be nice. It has been quiet for too long. Yqt1001 01:43, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU forecast
The 2nd CSU forecast has came out. 17-9-5 is the forecast call, and more of a neutral season is being called upon than an El nino event. Appears we will have a bad season coming our way; it's looking more and more like a 2008... The link is here. Ryan1000 14:22, April 2, 2011 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
3 hours until the season starts here (though it technically started 1 hour ago) and we got a new invest! This one is just off the coast of the Carolinas in decently warm water. Models take it into Florida before it can fully develop. I don't expect to see much from it. I have my hopes from an AOI north of Panama to become Arlene. The models really seem to love it, some even bringing it to hurricane strength before landfall in Cuba in about 8 days! Yqt1001 01:31, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 30% but it is rapidly moving towards Florida. Yqt1001 11:49, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hope it develops. YE Tropical Cyclone

Made landfall on Florida and the models now show it going into the gulf once it reemerges from the other side of Florida. If it can stay intact there is a decent chance it will redevelop. It's moving pretty fast too so it shouldn't be over Florida for too long. Yqt1001 15:37, June 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * I was not really expecting much out of this weak storm(earlier mentioned in the Pacific forum), and, well, the season has just begun. I don't really see a big difference between the last week of May and first one in June. There is an outside chance it could become Arlene, but I won't count on it. I would expect a slower start, like perhaps mid July or August, but not so much June. We'l wait and see, but I'm not really expecting anything out of 93L. And the area of thunderstorms north of Panama is under too much wind shear to become Arlene. If I had to bet on which one of the two systems would become Arlene in the Atlantic out of this storm or the thunderstorms north of Panama, I would bet this storm, and the chances are not good either way. But we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 17:03, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The shear is supposed to die down quite a bit over the next 2 days. 93L has been downgraded to 20% but the storms north of Panama is up to 10% now. Yqt1001 19:11, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, I don't really want that to happen, but the problem is, if the shear does settle enough, then the storms north of Panama(possibly future Arlene) aren't going to have anything in their way. Early June storms like that are rare; normally it's not very likely for storms to explode in the Carribean at this time of year. It certainly has happened in October a few times(Mitch, Wilma, Hattie, 1924) and in November(Michelle, Paloma, 1912, ect), but many people go home in November, whilst in June and July, are on summer vacation. The difference between storms in the carribean in October/November and June/July is the weather pattern. In June and July, there are lots of storms that develop in the region, but the wind shear is high. In October and November, wind shear isn't very high at all, but thunderstorm activity is scarce. It's just that, when the shear does settle down in June and July, like what happened with Audrey of 1957 or 2005's Dennis and Emily, or when the thunderstorm activity increases in October and November, that's when bad things happen. Both storms are worth watching; I was just mentioning earlier that it's only June 1st, the first day of the season; it's not like it's August yet or anything, but we'll keep on watching these storms either way. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:02, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Makes sense. Don't think the shear will go down that much, but it will go down enough to get the storms north of Panama to TS strength according to most models (one model still shows a category 3 storm however). The shear in the GOM, while still going down will be getting less favourable in the area 93L is going to be in so I think that 93L has only today and tomorrow to get it's act together and become a TD at the very most. It's also moving very quickly so I'm unsure how much time it will have to develop before it makes landfall in Texas/Mexico. It practically crossed Florida in 4 hours causing quite a bit less damage to the storm than a storm that would be going 10mph slower. Yqt1001 20:40, June 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The intensity of the storm in the carribean right now really all depends on the speed of that storm. Hurricane Wilma of 2005 was nearly stationary, or moving very slowly in the carribean, which explains how it got to a category 5. It did weaken when it encountered the shear in the gulf, but it still hit Florida as a powerful major hurricane. Wilma still remains the most rescent major hurricane to hit the U.S, but that will likely change this year. The same thing happened with Mitch in 1998 as well. I didn't think so much of 93L, but in place of 93L, 94L will follow it. If 94L manages to stay in the Carribean for long enough, it could be a nasty storm, but if it races right off northwards, then it likely won't develop at all. Ryan1000 21:19, June 1, 2011 (UTC)

93L is nearly gone now. Yqt1001 10:59, June 2, 2011 (UTC)


 * And I'm not surprised either. The storms north of Panama also have an outside chance of developing, but as I mentioned earlier, it's only June 2nd, and I wouldn't be surprised if they don't develop either. I mean, the season has just begun, and we will get our season rolling on later, but not right now. 2005 did get a june start and raged active the entire season, but the conditions this year are not the same as they were in 2005. I would expect a slow start in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, but still have a near to above-normal Atlantic season, and a rather quiet Pacific hurricane and typhoon season. The NIO should have gotten their first storm by now, because it's June 2nd, and that's their first peak, which is now falling down, and won't rise up again until November. Ryan1000 20:00, June 2, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
And the storms north of Panama have finally been invested. NHC gives it 20% in the next 2 days. Yqt1001 20:01, June 3, 2011 (UTC)


 * It's actually looking better than when it did a few days back, but it looks a little ominous to me, being down in the Carribean alone. It's heading slowly to the WNW, but given the conditions this wave is in, under hardly an ounce of shear and very warm SST's, it wouldn't surprise me if it explodes in the Carribean. I will be watching out for Arlene over the next day or two. Things are starting to get really intersting out there. Ryan1000 20:53, June 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It is looking quite a bit better, and the NHC acknowledged that finally..they said that the area was conductive for development but only increased the odds to 30%. I guess the atmosphere isn't quite ready for rapid organization just yet. However, every day it sits there and slowly organizes could be one day closer to Arlene. I think we could see Arlene in the next 3-4 days, but probably after that. I won't be surprised if it does form however. Yqt1001 23:53, June 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Neither would I, but there still is some shear in the Caribbean. That will hinder it a little bit, but if it can intensify despite the shear, then it might just be able to cause some trouble, because the SST's are still warm, and wind shear is much lower than where it should otherwise be. I am still on the lookout for Arlene, but I'm not imediately going to forecast a major hurricane out of this storm. Stay tuned on this one. Ryan1000 01:41, June 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models aren't being very kind to 94L over the next few days, but that won't exactly mean it won't develop at all. The models aren't so kind to it because it is very large and disorganized. The hurricane season hasn't officially begun yet, but the tornado season certainly has. The season was one of the worst in history. Throughout a 3-day period from April 25-28, 330 tornadoes touched down, and 186 were on April 27 alone, which was the largest tornado outbreak in U.S. history, smashing the former record of 148 in the "1974 super outbreak".Of the 330 tornadoes that hit, 3 were EF-5's, and there were an additional 146 from April 14-16. The first of the 3 EF-5's killed only 3 people when it tore into a few counties in Mississippi, the second killed 22 in Smithville, Mississippi, and the third one killed 71 in Hackleburg, Alabama. There were also 158 more from May 21-26, including 2 EF-5's. One of which, the Joplin tornado, was the costliest tornado in history. When it hit Joplin, it caused 1 to 3 billion dollars in damage, and it killed over 140 people, making it the deadliest tornado to hit the U.S. since 1947, and 8th deadliest in history. Aside from the Joplin tornado, an EF-5 also killed 9 people in Oklahoma 2 days later. Thus far, 2011 has 3 of the top 5 most active tornado outbreaks on record. Two May outbreaks in 2003 and 2004 had 289 and 229 tornadoes, respectively, but were both shattered by this year's April outbreak. There were 683 tornadoes recorded in April 2011, making it the most active tornado month on record. The former record was 542 from May 2003, and the former April record was 267 from 1974, less than half of what 2011 had. The 30-year average for April is a mere 135. The death toll from this year's tornado season was the highest death toll from any tornado season since the 1925 season, with 522 deaths thus far in 2011. Only the tri-state tornado of 1925 killed more than all of them together, with 689 deaths, over 2000 injuries, and more than 10,000 people homeless. Damage from this year's tornado season has thus far totaled from 4.5 to 9 billion dollars, making it the costliest tornado season in history. There was also an EF-3 that hit Springfield, Massachusets on June 1st, being only the third EF-3 to hit the state since 1950 and it killed 3 people, making it the third deadliest. This year is only behind 1965 and 1974 for the highest number of EF-3 or stronger tornadoes, and ties 1953 for the second highest number of EF-5's in one year on record, with 5. Only 1974 had more, with 6, and it's not over yet, either.

That information of this year's tornado season was going a bit off-topic, but it goes to show mother nature hasn't been getting any friendlier with us. This invest likely won't develop soon, but our tornado season has been very active thus far, and it's just not stopping. Ryan1000 15:26, June 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back down to 20%. It has gotten quite a bit less organized so I'm not really at all surprised. Yqt1001 04:03, June 5, 2011 (UTC)

Back to 30%. It's still ingesting tons of mid-level dry air and if that doesn't recede soon then I'm not sure what future this storm will have, if any. Most of the models agree that it will develop now though, so now that we have model support the odds are likelier. Recon is leaving in 30 minutes so we'll see what happens at the 1800UTZ update. Yqt1001 14:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * It has been flaring up and dying down from time to time, but it's still sitting in the Caribbean doing absolutely nothing, and that's because it has no steering currents. If it still fails to develop into Arlene, then the trough north of it will be unable to grab it, and then it will still be in the Caribbean. Many models take it to a TS soon, but after that happens, it will likely be pulled northward into Cuba and then out to sea. Ryan1000 16:14, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 40% now, looks like it's time is coming (where it has to decide if it's going to develop or stay a low). Yqt1001 18:11, June 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's starting to near Jamacia, and if Jamacia can hinder it, then Arlene will have to wait. It appears this invest has thus far been having a really tough time in the Caribbean. I wouldn't be surprised if it just doesn't develop, but there still remains hope for 94L. Ryan1000 20:52, June 5, 2011 (UTC)

Looks like today will be the day it develops, if it does develop. Conditions are nearly the best today and it has organized pretty decently today. After today the shear goes up quite a bit and the storm will be doomed if it doesn't develop. I think that Arlene is out of the question, but TD1 isn't yet. Yqt1001 14:21, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 50% now. --Patteroast 18:12, June 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%... it's falling apart, I'd be surprised if this thing becomes TD1 now. HurricaneFiona 12:34, June 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20%... it's falling apart, I'd be surprised if this thing becomes TD1 now. HurricaneFiona 12:34, June 7, 2011 (UTC)

And it is quickly dieing. Now at 10% however I feel it truly has a 0% chance of developing now. Yqt1001 18:57, June 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I guess Arlene must wait untill later. The East Pacific may be the only basin that'll be fun to watch for now. Only the EPac is actually spitting out storms as of now; since the brief hot streak in the WPac, nothing has happened, and just like the SWIO, the NIO(although they don't account for many storms) hasn't even had their first storm yet, and they should have had one by now. The NIO may also be rather inactive in this year, not that it may matter anyhow, but until then, I'll be on the pacific hurricane season forum. Ryan1000 19:50, June 7, 2011 (UTC)

Aaaaand it is back! Despite really high shear and being on top of Cuba, the NHC gives it 20% chance of developing. Yqt1001 00:02, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * 94L is just prolonging the inevitable. I will give up all my possessions if it even becomes a TD. Darren 23 Edits 01:00, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * "NEVER!!!", says 94L. It has a chance to become TD one, but I'm not counting on it. Currently it has a minor chance of developing, but I won't count on Arlene coming so soon. Ryan1000 02:15, June 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now it said never. It's down and out. Arlene will have to wait. Ryan1000 02:33, June 11, 2011 (UTC)

AoI: Caribbean
Most models are developing a storm in the West. Caribbean/Bay of Campeche/GOM coming from the tropical wave and the monsoon low in the Caribbean a few days from now. The system looks very very promising, and the conditions seem to be optimal for development, unlike what 94L encountered earlier this month. The models are showing an Alex-like track when the system exits the Yucatan. Because of the model agreement, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this should be Arlene, and this is a storm to watch out for. Darren 23 Edits 03:00, June 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yay!! Nice to see activity in the Atlantic. I hope this froms by the start of July. (A side note:

If this forms between July 1st and 10th, my prediction will win!! Andrew444 14:43, June 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * The wave seems to be merging nicely with a monsoonal low over Central America, if it gains a few more tropical characteristics it should be on the TWO within the next two days. And Andrew, the models having this forming in 3-5 days and then making landfall in June, this wave will be pretty much gone by July even if it forms or even if it does not. Yqt1001 14:47, June 24, 2011 (UTC)