Forum:2018 Atlantic hurricane season





Future Start
The CPC has just declared a weak La Niña. Models keep a La Niña through winter at least. Will we see another active season next year? Maybe its too early to make a call, but we'll surely see...182.58.75.119 04:32, November 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * GWO, which has predicted every season correct since 2009, has said that the season will be the most active and most dangerous since 2005, implying that this La Niña could last a while. T  G  My Birthday 12:01, November 22, 2017 (UTC)
 * Actually, I looked closely at their website and I saw "Only Organization That Predicted 2017 - Would Be Most Destructive and Dangerous Hurricane Season Since 2005." Pretty sure they mean 2017. I think 2018 predictions are going to be freely available on February 1, because it says on that website that "zone predictions" are coming that day. In the meantime, I'm going to go ahead and predict what this season could have in store. I believe 16-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-5 majors will occur. Another really active season is very possible and I hope it's not going to be a catastrophic season like 2017 was. ~  Steve 🦃   Happy  Thanksgiving!  👪  19:40, November 23, 2017 (UTC)
 * I'm of the opinion that with the development of La Niña, another hyperactive season is on the way... my predictions are 18(±3) named storms, 11(±2) hurricanes, and 6(±2) major hurricanes. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:03, November 25, 2017 (UTC)

Also since the betting pools are already up I'll link them here. ~ KN2731 {talk} 05:10, November 25, 2017 (UTC)
 * Steve, originally there was a title you could click on called 2017-18 hurricane season predictions. Now it is renamed 2018-19 predictions because 2017 is 5 days away from ending. It originally read: "2017 AND 2018 WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE AND DESTRUCTIVE SEASONS IN A DECADE", meaning that 2018 is going to be a re-2017 unfortunately. T  G  My Birthday 13:38, November 25, 2017 (UTC)

I think we are in for another active season. I hope it’s not destructive like this year. Unfortunately, I have a feeling that it will be. I think the 2013, 2014, and 2015 seasons were just the Atlantic taking a nap. Leeboy100 Hello! 21:41, November 25, 2017 (UTC)


 * Another hyperactive season is almost here, well, not really hyperactive but just active. Hi!-68.106.0.77 18:56, November 26, 2017 (UTC)
 * There's a good possibility that 2018 will be another very active or even hyperactive season with extreme destruction. Hopefully it isn't, because 2017 had way too much devastation and many areas (particularly the Lesser Antilles and Texas) need a break. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:48, November 27, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this year does turn out to be very active, like it appears it will be as of now due to La Nina conditions, hopefully we don't see the kind of horrific devastation we saw from last year's season, particularly in major U.S. cities or territories. Like I mentioned in the summary of the last season, the only way we could see more damage in an AHS than last year is if a series of strong hurricanes struck other major U.S. cities; Miami, Tampa, and NYC are the only U.S. cities that could suffer more damage from a worst-case hurricane than what Harvey did to Houston, not to mention Irma's and Maria's historic impacts in the Caribbean and southwest Florida as well. Ryan1000 22:55, December 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Seasonal forecast by UCL's TSR (Not the Student Room) has been released: 15-7-3 is the forecast.  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 17:23, December 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Latest odds for La Niña are 26%, with 46% for neutral and 28% for El Niño. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:06, February 11, 2018 (UTC)


 * That means that we will going to have an average season this year. --70.190.21.73 02:38, February 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I was a little iffy of another above-average season to be fair, but nonetheless I still predict some pretty powerful hurricanes coming. Who do you think will be the strongest storm this year? Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 03:02, February 13, 2018 (UTC)


 * I have a pretty bad feeling about the names Gordon, Helene, and Michael. I predict one of those will be the strongest of the year. For season totals, I now predict something like 16-8-4. ~  Steve ❄   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:55, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Given the current ENSO status and forecasts, we could see a slightly less active season to come, however as demonstrated by 2005 an above average season or even hyperactive season can't be ruled out, we'll have to see on the status on the AMO and the North Atlantic oscillation for the influence in activity later on as it gets closer to hurricane season. Not making my calls until mid-April. Nutfield001 (talk) 06:59, February 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * This season could end up being slightly less active than earlier forecast, the current projection is leaning neutral, with a slightly higher chance of La Nina than El Nino. 2011 had a similar outlook at this time of year as well, and it turned out to be tied for the 3rd most active year ever, but only Irene was notable that year. But it's too soon to tell whether this'll be an average or above average year. Ryan1000 07:07, February 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Indeed! I also am a bit worried about Gordon, Helene and Michael. I think those three will be top three in terms of strength. I agree wholly with what Steve said in terms of season totals. In fact lemme get my predictions out:

TS Beryl
 * JUNE: TS Alberto

TS Chris TS Debby
 * JULY:

C2 Ernesto C1 Florence C4 Gordon
 * AUGUST:

C5 Helene TS Isaac C3 Joyce TS Kirk
 * SEPTEMBER:

TS Leslie C4 Michael C1 Nadine TS Oscar
 * OCTOBER:

TS Patty
 * NOVEMBER:


 * What are your predictions?  Ｄ Ｅ Ｓ Ｋ Ｒ Ａ Ａ Ｔ Ｉ Ｎ Ｇ Ｏ 19:25, February 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow, my predictions aren't that detailed. :/ Mine are simply 18 TS, 11 HU, 6 MH. ~ KN2731 {talk} 04:39, February 17, 2018 (UTC)
 * I say that there will be 16-19 tropical storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I'm gonna go further and say that Helene would be the most destructive hurricane of the season, while Michael would be the deadliest, especially with the death tolls of the previous two M-named hurricanes in this basin (official death toll from Maria may be somewhat undercounted) ArrDFe25 (talk) 20:04, February 20, 2018 (UTC)

GWO's preds released fam:  " What to Expect in 2018

  2018  GWO Prediction    16 named storms     8 hurricanes   4 major hurricanes    4 U.S.  Hurricane landfalls

                                                                                                                2 to 3 major impact United States Hurricanes"

ｕｒ ｍａｉ ｗａｉｆｕ ｄｅｓｕ ノ域囲真 04:56, February 27, 2018 (UTC)

Scratch that. A guy named "Joe Bastardi" released his predictions. https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-prelim He is predicting: 11-15/6-7/1-3 due to the uncertainty of El Nino events. To be honest... due to the possibility of El Nino coming in autumn, I am now revising down my predictions to 14-6-3; I can see a similar set-up to 2006, but 2000's amount of storms. El Nino should be in full force next winter, and might dissipate come next year's season. ｕｒ　ｍａｉ　ｗａｉｆｕ　ｄｅｓｕ　ノ域囲真 22:54, March 21, 2018 (UTC)