Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season

Welcome
Here's 2011! I believe we could get an El Nino this year, so I'm thinking an above-average season. Anyone have specific calls? Just like I did with the Atlantic hurricane season, the /Betting pools/ are here, too! Ryan1000 21:18, January 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I guess I'll go with 17-9-4 (named-hurricanes-major) Yqt1001 02:18, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have 14-19 storms, 7-10 hurricanes, 4-6 majors, and I'm not sure about cat. 5's; we've had one here for two straight years; that's a record as it is, and saying we'll have another one for 3 straight years is a bit too generous for the EPac IMO. Ryan1000 21:49, February 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * 15-6-3 is my guess. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * And it is officially hurricane season! yay! YE Tropical Cyclone  00:07, May 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has been cyclone season in the SHem Forum beforehand, but anyways, happy hurricane season! Adrian will be on our hands likely in the next week or two. Then, we'll get many more storms from there. Unlike 2010, an El Nino could happen this year, so an active season could be on our way! Ryan1000 12:54, May 15, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: South of Mexico
Models have this...10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if any of these waves will develop. Pretty high shear and this wave is monsoonal and they need really good conditions to spin up. Yqt1001 15:43, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% 10%10L.NONAME 20:28, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * goneAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: 130 degrees west
...this one, too...10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Long GoneAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
No joke, 30%. 10Q.INVEST 18:08, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Actually only 10%, 30% is the other one. I'm so confused but I figured it out.CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:29, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 10%, looks better than 94E.10Q.INVEST 06:38, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: 110 Degrees West
...and also this one..10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * and gone tooAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Near 140 degrees west
... and another one... 10L.NONAME 15:19, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

bye bye to you toAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
No joke, 10%10Q.INVEST 18:05, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 30%. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:27, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Back to 10%10Q.INVEST 06:37, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now Near 0% chance. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:00, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: West of Mexico
This low pressure has been here for a couple of days, worth mentioning. It is at 20%.10Q.INVEST 02:12, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

...and gone.10Q.INVEST 19:24, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: South of Gulf of Tehuantepec
Granted 20%. 10Q.INVEST 01:27, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested. Looks like it has a decent shot a Hillary. Yqt1001 12:50, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

Finally we have something worth watching in EPac. It looks like it'll become a hurricane in the future... again. Ryan1000 20:09, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40% right now, and yeah a lot of models show a hurricane from this. Yqt1001 20:34, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * 50% now here comes HilaryAllanjeffs 23:57, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Unlike TD 8, this still has a lot of time to develop. I think this might get to hurricane strength, and I wonder where is YE right now. 10Q.INVEST 00:34, September 20, 2011 (UTC)

I would be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane. Models take it out to sea, could become a major there, but yeah, other than that, there's nothing else to it. It can't (and won't be able to) fill the massive ACE hole EPAC is under right now. Darren 23 Edits 00:56, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Where in the world is YE? This is at 70% and it looks likely this storm will form soon. Yqt1001 20:05, September 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The ACE/storm in this EPac season actually isn't half bad, but overall ACE sucks. The AHS has an okay ACE for this time, but the ACE/storm could easily be the lowest since 2007. It only totals to about 5.15. Ryan1000 21:10, September 20, 2011 (UTC)

90%! Here comes Hilary/TD9! Yqt1001 23:35, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * I should wake up and see a TD in the morning.10Q.INVEST 23:41, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow, this becomes Tropical Depression Nine-E or Tropical Storm Hilary. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:41, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 9-E
Here we go! Expected to peak at a category 2 hurricane. Yqt1001 12:05, September 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * And I do wake up with a TD in the morning.10Q.INVEST 12:11, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilary
And it's already a TS. Yqt1001 19:00, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Now forecast to peak as a C3. NOAA really screwed up the predictions of this year's EPac season in terms of intensities of storms. They forecasted only 5-8 hurricanes, and Hilary is already pretty much guranteed to be our 7th 'cane. If we get two more in October, then we will exceed that value. Furthermore, they forecasted only 1-3 majors, but we already had 3 Cat 4's and Hilary could be our 4th one. If that happens, then 2011 will have the record number of C4's in a non-El Nino year and pass that value. This year has been incredible for EPac. In terms of intensity forecasts, NOAA flipped ATL and EPac IMO. We only had 3 hurricanes thus far in ATL and September is almost over, let alone Ophelia probrably won't become a hurricane anyways, given the conditions ahead of her in the next few days and the long run. They forecasted we would have 7-10 hurricanes in ATL, but we need 4 more in the rest of September, October, and November to tie the lowest of that, and at least one major out of them, which I personally can't see happening at the rate we are going in ATL. Ryan1000 20:15, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * My peak is 140 knts. This storm reminds me of Rick for some reason. YE Tropical  Cyclone  23:46, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Started this section early. With three hurricanes at hand, I just felt like starting this section. Anywho, what are your predictions?

Mine:


 * Adrian - 1% No effects on land, intensity doesn't earn retirements.


 * Beatriz - 10% Impact not significant, while there are 4 deaths, I don't think it's going to be retired.


 * Calvin - 1% Was indeed an interesting storm.

- HurricaneSpin (Talk)  21:07, July 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well, there are no storms with any reasonable chance of retirement, but if I had to put a number on it? I would put 5% to Beatriz and keep everyone else, since they did nothing. However, the season is far from over, and there is always a possibility of a destructive late-season storm like Kenna or Pauline. As of now, i'd wait on this section. I also made this in the WPac forum just now, but it should wait there too. Ryan1000 22:47, July 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are mine:
 * Adrian - 2% I don't think so, intensities don't determine retirements. And Adrian's staying, unless he pulls a Knut out of the hat.
 * Beatriz - 7% Unless we get an Alma- like situation, no. 4 deaths are not enough, and Mexico has gone through worse than her.
 * Calvin - 0% He's gonna stay, no matter what. The end.
 * Dora - 3% See Adrian's section.
 * Eugene - 1% See Dora's, Calvin's, and Adrian's sections.
 * Fernanda - 0% - History doesn't earn retirement.
 * Greg - 1% - Slightly brushed Mexico, but no.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Fernanda - 0% - History doesn't earn retirement.
 * Greg - 1% - Slightly brushed Mexico, but no.
 * And I wouldn't be surprised if Beatriz is retired, you know of the EPac's storm history (for example, they let Alma, a storm that did next to nothing (but Alma does means "soul" in Spanish) get sacrificed, while they set a monster, Agatha, free. That's pathetic). Andrew444 02:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine (Until Calvin) Darren 23 Edits 02:38, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian – 0%:Unless it's some dictator's name, hell no.
 * Beatriz – 2%:Why the heck would this one be retired?
 * Calvin – 0%:I love fish :P


 * A bit early but here are mine:
 * Adrian; 0%: ^ what Darren said
 * Beatriz; 4%: Arlene hurt Mexico more, but Mexico seems resilient to retire names anymore
 * Calvin; 0%: Became a hurricane, but that's it.
 * Yqt1001 13:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC)

Here are mine:
 * Adrian: 1% Not enough impact
 * Beatriz: 5% Did not devastate the economy
 * Calvin 0%

YE Tropical Cyclone

Adrian-0%, Beatriz-10%, Calvin-0%, Dora-5%. OWEN2011 16:11, July 22, 2011 (UTC)

--HurricaneMaker99 17:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian: 1% - Unless he pulls an Adolph, no.
 * Beatriz: 10% - Some impact in Mexico, but not terribly significant. That said, there is the possibility that she could pull an Alma.
 * Calvin: 0% - Became a hurricane... and did absolutely nothing else.
 * Dora: 1% - Was fun as hell to track, but as Jake said about Danielle last year, beauty doesn't earn retirement.
 * Eugene: 1% - See Adrian and Dora's sections.
 * Fernanda: 0% - And so passes the first epic fail of the year (well, for the EPAC anyway).
 * Greg: 0% - See Calvin's section.

Here are my(official)EPac percentages as of now. Ryan1000 22:30, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Adrian - 1% - Just because he was so freakin' awesome.
 * Beatriz - 10% - Some deaths, some damage, but enough for retirement? Probrably not.
 * Calvin - 0% - There are two reasons why this thing shouldn't be retired:Number 1, and of course number 2!(end sarcasm)
 * Dora - 0% - Didn't pull off what Adrian did, so no credit for her.
 * Eugene - 1% - See Adrian.
 * Fernanda - 0% - Finally the hurricane streak ends, and it didn't do anything but spin fish.
 * Greg - 0% - See Calvin.

Here's mine:

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Adrian, Calvin, Dora, Eugene, Fernanda, and Greg - 0% - they're all fishspinners.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Beatriz - 5% - At least it had fatalities and affected land.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Cyclone10 21:33, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Adrian,Calvin,Eugene,Fernada,Greg 0%

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Beatriz 8% because of the deathe and the damage.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Dora 3 % Minimal damage.

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Allanjeffs 01:51, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

Mid-season forecasts
What are you guy mid-season forecasts. Mines is 14-9-4. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone


 * I am expecting a near-normal season here, if not slightly below normal, and I am calling for, say 14-16 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-4 majors, but no category 5's. Until Calvin dissipates, I guess the next thing to watch is 08W in the WPac, which is currently Goring by PAGASA and could become future Ma-on. Ryan1000 19:24, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna go to the lower end of all y'all's forecasts and go for 12 NS, 7 H, 3 MH and also no C5's (EPAC only, I hate forecasting CPAC). Apparently, this is close to the CPC forecast of a median of 12 NS, 6.5 H and 2 MH. Here's my monthly forecast:

<font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:18, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Jun: 2TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Jul: 3TS, 1H, 0MH
 * Aug: 3TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Sep: 3TS, 2H, 1MH
 * Oct: 1TS, 0H, 0MH
 * Nov: 0TS, 0H, 0MH
 * Dec: Heck no

HurricaneSpin's

Atlantic: 16-13-8-5-1 (Maria) ACE=108

Pacific: 18-14-7-3-0 (Norma) ACE=101

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:26, July 9, 2011 (UTC) Oh yeah, ATL. I'm going with 16 (±3) NS, 8(±2) H, 5(±1) MH, ≥0 C5, or above normal with an ACE of 110-195, or (assuming median ACE is 87.5) 125-222% above normal mean because conditions are still very favorable for significant development in the season. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 20:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * My predictions:
 * Atlantic: 16-8-4-2
 * Pacific: 14-7-3-0
 * Yqt1001 21:49, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think the Atlantic will have 14-9-5. IMO, the pacific is more tricky since we already have had the first three storms become hurricanes and 1 major. I would go with 11-12 storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 1-5 majors (I wouldn't be suprised if the season ends up like 2010 and has no majors through peak of season.)
 * ACE for the Atlantic should be around 150. The Pacific ACE should be between 50-80. Suprise11 22:53, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2010? Why is 2010 being discussed? Do you realize that the 2010 PHS an anomaly? The environment is much more favorable than 2010. In fact, if this seaosn shuts down later this month, and pulls a 2010/1977, I will be shocked. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  22:57, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * While 2010 was anomaly (Number of June storms, June C5, lack of activity afterward), because we are in the inactive Pacific era, a repeat will not be surprising, but it is not really expected. And YE, an interment is a burial :P <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 23:11, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * It will be surprising, because a 2010 type season has occurred only twice in the past 44 years. So the odds of an 2010 type season is 1/22.YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:29, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant 2010 in terms of the possibility of no majors through peak of season. For example, despite 2003's high number of named storms, there were no majors. Suprise11 23:36, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given the fact that we already have three major and one cane, it is unlikely that we will have no majors in the season. Most years have a Baja storm that becomes an MH if not an MH fish storm. In fact, I could only find two seasons since 1977 with no MH's during the peak (2003 and 2010). Odds=1/12. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  23:43, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * True. I gave a big range since because of the difficulty for me to predict majors for this season. I honestly think we will get 2 more majors for a total of 3 majors. This is inside my range. Suprise11 23:50, July 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not entirely sure, but I do believe that a 2010 repeat is next to impossible here. Not to say a 2010 repeat won't happen, but the chances are not good. I changed the tables below the forumheader and the WAD(Worldwide activity discussion) now has it's own forum. I expect a major or two to come in the season's peak, but per 2003 and last year, that's not a gurantee, but again, it's not likely we won't have a peak-season major hurricane this year. The only thing out there as of now is the new TD in the WPac(excluding Calvin, he's pretty much gone). Ryan1000 01:33, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well... my predictions are on the worldwide discusssion page, but here are my E. Pac and C.Pac mid- season forecasts. And for the E.Pac, we've seen 3-3-1 already, but anywho:
 * E.Pac:
 * 14-7-2-0 (get down to Max + one Atlantic crossover) ACE= ~105 Net TC activity: 101%
 * C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded):
 * (2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20
 * I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana.
 * For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * C.Pac (note: crossover(s) from the EPac are excluded):
 * (2-4)-(1-3)-(0-2)-(0-1) ACE = ~20
 * I believe in the CPac, we'll get down to Unala, possibly Wali, or if the CPac wants to be like 1982, Ana.
 * For my other forecasts, go to the WAD and 2011-12 S. Hem pages. Andrew444 13:32, July 10, 2011 (UTC)

Very mid season predictions
Mines are 14-10-6. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

Mine is also 14-10-6 (please see my blog ). Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:32, August 16, 2011 (UTC)

EPAC hurricane drought
Any overdue areas in the EPAC? YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  17:06, August 16, 2011 (UTC)


 * YE, Southern California is overdue. Last hurricane to make landfall was in 1858, and the last tropical storm was in 1939. However, numerous depressions have made landfall since then. Suprise11 17:24, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Suprise11, the 1858 hurricane did bring hurricane force winds ashore, but it actually just barely missed landfall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 18:39, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don't forget western Central America.Cyclone10 21:35, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, Agatha last year made landfall in Guatemala, unless you mean hurricane landfall. Then, I don't know when the last time that happened. Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:17, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you use SNM data, Adrian 05 made landfall in Central America. If you use NHC data, never :P. YE <font color="#66666">Tropical <font color="#66666">Cyclone  00:15, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * I meant hurricane strength at landfall.10L.NONAME 21:47, August 28, 2011 (UTC)(Cyclone10)
 * I meant hurricane strength at landfall.10L.NONAME 21:47, August 28, 2011 (UTC)(Cyclone10)

Late season forecasts
The peak of the EPAC season is gone, so what are your late season predictions?

Mine is 12-9-4. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:31, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Because I believe we're heading for an EPAC shutdown due to the waters getting colder in EPAC, mine is 9-7-3 <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 12:54, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * I think two to three storms mine is 10-7-3Allanjeffs 19:17, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think we will have an October major hurricane coming our way, and another hurricane also in October or late September. So my call is 9-7-3 as well, with an ACE/storm near-normal or slightly above average. The ACE/storm in ATL will suck this year because we've only had one hurricane for every 7 storms. 2007 had 2 for every 5, with an ACE/storm of 4.6. Even if we do get a lot of strong storms after this date, I still expect the ACE/storm to be below average. I expect the maximum possibility to be 6, and that might be a little generous even so. Ryan1000 14:06, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Over in the ATL forum I said 9-12 depressions, 9-11 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 0-1 category 5 hurricanes (I don't know why I never included majors, but for majors I'm going with 3-4) Yqt1001 19:40, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, EPAC's dead. While sort-of improbable (I give it a 40% chance of happening), we could beat/tie the record low for the # of storms. And EPAC is like... 54% below average in terms of ACE, which is pretty much like the NHEM totals. (ACE/Storm, depending on storm numbers, is sometimes a terrible indicator of the activity). While I didn't think it could happen, it looks like we have a slightly more active version of 2010. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:37, September 18, 2011 (UTC)


 * We may have Hilary of the new AOI and maybe Irwin in october the most to me will be Keneth and that it is for me Allanjeffs 23:56, September 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * I personally prefer to use ACE/storm because a season could only have a few storms but incredible ACE, or a ton of storms and a horrible ACE, so if you take the number of storms it had in proportion to the number of storms of another season, the ACE skyrockets or plummets. And this year's EPac season could be on the road to having the highest ACE/storm since at least 1995, if not higher. Ryan1000 20:19, September 21, 2011 (UTC)