Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

July
Similar to the AHS forum, I will start this section slightly early. I'm not sure what to expect from the EPAC this month, but I hope the basin can pick up the pace. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  15:30, June 30, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:GFS twin storms
The GFS has been consistently predicting two TCs in the Epac. The first develops around 150 hrs out, reaching peak at 970 mb by 216 hrs, becoming post tropical by 252 hrs. The second, a weaker 990 mb develops 240 hrs out and becomes a PTC by 336 hrs. 182.58.36.75 10:19, July 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now they're on the TWO. The both of the systems are 0/20 as of now. :) 70.190.5.175 03:43, July 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * One of the two systems is at 0/30 now. :) 70.190.5.175 05:31, July 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * The two are intensifying right now. One system is at 20/40 while the other is at 0/60. There systems will become Eugene and Fernanda once these are tropical storms. :) 70.190.5.175 22:56, July 2, 2017 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
The one at 20/50 has been invested. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:36, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * The invest is up to 30/50. :) 70.190.5.175 16:38, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 60/60. :) 70.190.5.175 03:07, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * While 94L is picking up organization in the Atlantic, the EPac is kicking up as well with this thing. 94E is now up to 70% for 2 and 5 days, and an AOI behind this is also at 70% for 5 days, and a third storm could be coming behind that one. Even if this becomes Fernanda, NHC doesn't expect it to be too strong. But we could be at Greg or Hilary if all 3 of these AOI's develop and another one forecast by the GFS in a week or two. July is like the EPac's August, usually 4 named storms, 2 hurricanes, and one major form in the month. Ryan1000 15:36, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * At 70/70, but with very limited time to develop into something. Cold water and less favorable conditions are arriving after 2 days. I hope this is a depression max, as I do not wanna see the name "Eugene" be wasted by a failure. This will not be Fernanda as the other 2 AOIs are going to develop after this one. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  21:56, July 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 80/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:45, July 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dropped to 60/60, not expected to form. T  G  2 0 1 7 17:47, July 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * Dropped further down to 30/30, time's running out for this one. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:18, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * Yep, there is no hope for this one anymore (unless it rapidly organizes at the last minute at unprecedented pace and becomes a brief TD, very unlikely). I hate how this had to flop. :( Eugene is going to come from the 20/80 AOI. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:54, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * 10/10 right now, definitely not developing. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:16, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * RIP, gone. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:39, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:GFS twin storms (cont.)
This section's for the AOI at 0/60. Generally models are more enthusiastic about this one. ~ KN2731 {talk} 06:36, July 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 0/70. :) 70.190.5.175 03:05, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This should be Eugene or Fernanda and hopefully be our next hurricane. I hope this is Eugene as the 70/70 system way in front of it is entering unfavorable conditions soon and will be nothing bigger than a weak fail and name-stealer if it becomes a TS. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  22:00, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * This storm and the one before that has an 80/80 chance has been dropped by models. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:21, July 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * 20/80, maybe this will become Eugene. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:21, July 6, 2017 (UTC)
 * This should be Eugene 'cuz the other system is dying and no longer has a chance. Maybe this will even beat Dora to become the strongest of the season (too early to predict though). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:57, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 30/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:16, July 6, 2017 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Invested and up to 50/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:42, July 6, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now 80/90, getting ready to form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 02:48, July 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * 90/90. TD5 is coming. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:35, July 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * 100/100, yet they haven't initiated advisories. (But they said they will.) T  G  2 0 1 7 18:14, July 7, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Eugene
Unexpectedly jumped straight to TS strength. 35 kt/1006 mbar. T G  2 0 1 7 21:45, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * All tropical cyclone forecast models agree on a parallel the coast offshore track as Eugene remains on the western edge of a ridge. All models show intensification, with the GFS making this around 85 knots, GFS-P has 90 knots, ECMWF has 65 knots, HWRF has 75 knots, HWRF-P has 85 knots, and HMON has 85 knots, SHIPS/LGEM has 80 knots. However, given that this will be moving over the sharp SST's of the California Current, I think most of the guidance peaks this too late, and unless this moves slower than expected, Eugene will be over 25C water in 60 hours time. Latest SAB T number is at T1.5. With 48 hours left, the standard 1/T number a day seems too low, which would bring this to T3.5/55 knots in two days, given that for now the waters it is over is very warm and the shear is less than 10 knots. The so-called rapid intensification of T1.5/day seems more reasonable, and that would bring this to T4.5 in 48 hours. I'd expect a peak of 80 knots, but this could be conservative if it ramps up tonight. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:26, July 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * Well that was a bit of a surprise to me. It will stay well away from Mexico. Hi!-70.190.5.175 23:52, July 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * If this was heading more west of north it'd be a more powerful storm, maybe even a major hurricane, but with the northward movement expected to come from this, I doubt Eugene will get too strong. Cat 1, maybe 2, is the strongest it'll probably get. Also don't forget that storms are numbered with an "E" instead of "L" suffix in the EPac. Ryan1000 04:31, July 8, 2017 (UTC)


 * It intensified to 50 kn (60 mph) and 1000 mbar. Also I doubt that Eugene will be a major hurricane. Hi-70.190.5.175 16:10, July 8, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Eugene
Scratch what everyone said above. Eugene is rapidly intensifying and the new NHC forecast calls for the hurricane to reach winds of 105 mph. I'm going to go out on a limb and say Eugene will become the EPAC's first major hurricane of the season - that is if this intensification rate that's going on continues. Owen 03:19, July 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Eugene's forward speed is a lot slower than what was earlier forecast, so it looks like it'll have more time to intensify than previously thought. Wouldn't surprise me if this becomes a major at this rate. Ryan1000 12:31, July 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * 3 hours late, but NHC explicitly forecasts this to become a major now. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:47, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Eugene
Here's the first major hurricane of the season. It just intensified into a major hurricane (Category 3). It's currently at 115 mph/965 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:43, July 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I am a bit surprised it got this far. Eugene should be nearing its peak due to upcoming cool waters and unfavorable conditions. It still has about a 12-hour window for further strengthening before the conditions hit. I hope it is able to get as far as C4 before the weakening begins. Show off your best possible performance Eugene! :) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:15, July 9, 2017 (UTC)

Hurricane Eugene (2nd time)
Weakened into a Cat. 2 with 105 mph/972 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:03, July 10, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now weakened into a Category 1 hurricane. 85 mph/982 mbar. Hi!- 70.190.5.175  16:24, July 10, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Eugene (2nd time)
Weakened further into a TS with 70 mph/990 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:54, July 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Eugene's dying quickly. Winds are down to 65 mph and convection is warming fast. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:13, July 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now winds are down to 50 mph and pressure up to 1001 mbar. Eugene won't hold on anymore. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:21, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * At least it became a major hurricane (but barely). Eugene is going to die soon. Now time to focus on 96E, which could be another hurricane. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:04, July 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now weakened to 40 mph/1004 mbar. Hi!-70.190.5.175 03:08, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eugene
Down to 30 kts/1006 mbar, should cease to be a tropical cyclone later today. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:52, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene
And he's gone...until 2023. Ryan1000 00:15, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:West of Central America
This newly formed system is at 0/20. :) 70.190.5.175 03:05, July 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * The EPac is firing up! We could be up as far as Greg by next week. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:02, July 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off of the TWO. T  G  2 0 1 7 13:20, July 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI:South of Mexico
Another disturbance just formed. It's at 10/20. Hi!-70.190.5.175 00:34, July 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 20/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:55, July 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * 30/60, and the 06z GFS shows this becoming a powerful hurricane and surviving to the WPAC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 12:22, July 11, 2017 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested and up to 60/80. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:11, July 11, 2017 (UTC)


 * 70/80, it has a shot of being named Fernanda. Hi!-70.190.5.175 22:45, July 11, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now this pretty much will be Fernanda... 90/90 and nothing is really stopping it. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  01:06, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six-E
Now a TD. Forecast shows a hurricane, but a major is not out of the question. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:59, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fernanda
35 kts/1006 mbar. Forecast peak of 90 kts unchanged from previous advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:51, July 12, 2017 (UTC)

I am really not sure if I am allowed here, so I apologize if I am not, but HOLY COW. This storm looks like it could be something. There are warm waters everywhere, low shear, and the potential to track out to Hawaii. I would think at least a Category 4 out of this system. Maybe even a cat 5, which I guess is unlikely, but the setup is just too perfect for this storm not to succeed. --Emma and V 15:58, July 12, 2017 (UTC)


 * Looking good for Fernanda but I suggest that it should at least intensify into a Category 1. Well I won't be surprised if  this were to intensify into a major hurricane or/and crossover the 3 Pacific basins. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:14, July 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * Fernanda will likely be the biggest ACE producer and strongest storm of the season. The ECMWF and GFS and GFS-P have gradually trended more bullish and the SHIPS/LGEM have a Cat 2. HWRF/HWFR-P/HMON are all quite aggressive, calling for at least 90 knots in the 12z cycle. Waters are over 28C, and shear should remain low until at least 140W, although some increase in shear is possible after that time, which is about six days away anyway. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:13, July 12, 2017 (UTC)
 * NHC is only calling for a cat 2, but given the environmental conditions in front of Fernanda, I'd be surprised if it doesn't become a major hurricane, maybe even a long-lived cat 4. If it makes it to the CPac, it'll probably pass south of Hawaii like most July storms do, but it could bring some welcome rain to the state down the road. Ryan1000 00:15, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:


 * 1) Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
 * 2) Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
 * 3) Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
 * 4) Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC))

Steve's Retirements
Alrighty. I will do mine

(Retirement colors: -∞% , 0%, 0.01% , <font color="#04A">1% , <font color="#068">2.5% , <font color="#086">5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) ''' (Notes: A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely, used for either the best possible win storms or the worst possible failures. Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)). The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower.)


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#F20">D- - A weak failure and a fishspinner, but saved from getting an "F" or lower by the fact that it was the earliest named storm ever in the EPac zone.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#0A4">10%, <font color="#F00">F - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#068">2.5%, <font color="#A00">F- - Even weaker than the above two storms (this was 40 mph vs. 45 for the others). Retirement is about out of the question, as this was less destructive than Beatriz and caused no deaths. This would be Z--(x∞) had it not done something.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#02C">0.01%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Somewhat exceeded expectations in terms of intensity but never made C2.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:50, July 9, 2017 (UTC)