Forum:2015 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
Well, since we were all complaining, I decided to make the forum. Anyway, I predict 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes for the season. You guys can make your predictions on the betting pools. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * I predict 19 depressions, 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 4 majors to form this season. It looks likely that the El Nino will continue. -- Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:09, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20-11-5 for this season! :) Strongest storm names? Oh, how I wish Marty/Olaf were strong storms! People would be constantly on the Net making zebra and snowman memes! Or what about Rick? Rickroll? Lol. Enrique Iglesias? Anyway... back on topic, what about ACE units? What is your favourite storm name and why? rarity is best pony 03:20, November 9, 2014 (UTC)

IT's ALMOST NEW YEAR IN ESSEX :D but... This means Hawaii will be one of the last years to ring in the new year... GENEVIEVE must be hyper about the new year in Japan. Iselle? One of the last storms to ring in the new year. rarity is best pony 19:32, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Isis retired
Guess what guys, Hurricane Isis is going to get kicked from the list due to the sharing of the name with the infamous terrorist group. She's going to get replaced by either Iola (a different spelling of Lola, perhaps?), Ilene (Dover) or Ivette (an alternate spelling of Yvette, tbh.)  rarity is best pony 13:58, April 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * That hasn't been confirmed yet. YE Pacific Hurricane  23:03, April 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might not be confirmed yet, but it seems very likely it'll be retired due to that terrorist group. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:57, April 14, 2015 (UTC)

Since Ismael is retired for confusion with Israel, this has a very high chance of happening.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:23, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * The NHC recommended that the WMO remove Isis from the 2016 EPac list in their recommendations list sent to the WMO in the 37th session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. You can view it here (see number 2). However, they didn't recommend that the WMO retire Iselle, Odile, OR Gonzalo from the naming lists. It would suck if none of them got retired, especially Odile, that name deserves to go. Ryan1000 15:05, April 14, 2015 (UTC)
 * NHC doesn't usually request retirements unless for political reasons like in this case. YE Pacific Hurricane  21:06, April 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * This doesn't surprise me, I knew the name 'Isis' would have a chance of retirement, after what happened to Adolph in 2001  leeboy100 My Talk! 14:09, June 29, 2015 (UTC) ip ban me i don't use tor browser

Aoi:GFS CPac storm
GFS is showing an small hurricane or TS by its end of the 12z run.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:47, July 29, 2015 (UTC)
 * Currently near 0%. All models agree something will at least try to form. Less support now though. YE Pacific Hurricane  11:38, July 30, 2015 (UTC)::10
 * 10%. YE Pacific Hurricane  20:32, July 31, 2015 (UTC)
 * (Edit conflict) This AOI is moving westward at some 10 mph per the CPHC. Due to unfavorable upper-level winds and disorganization, I do not expect a TC from this. Chances of formation are now near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:46, August 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * This AOI has been dropped off the CPHC TWO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:30, August 3, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #2
GFS has this becoming a TS by day 13. YE Pacific Hurricane  15:35, July 18, 2015 (UTC)
 * After dropping this for a few runs, 12z GFS today brought this to a hurricane in 9 days. YE Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:41, July 26, 2015 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
10/50. Got some banding already and two very nice outflow channels. And is fairly well-organized and is in very favorable conditions for 3 days. If convection persists, this can become a depression within 24 hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * The NHC says conditions around 92E may result in TC formation later this week, but it already looks like a tropical depression IMO. I'm not sure if Guillermo is going to have any (indirect) impacts on the invest, but I think the latter has a decent chance at becoming a hurricane, if not a major. Chances of formation are now 30% for the next two days and 80% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:30, August 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * 92E has gained a lot of organization in the past six hours, and I expect a tropical depression within the next few days. Chances of formation for the next two days have risen to 50%, which no change in the five-day percentages. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:53, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * I am not too excited about this one doing much. Dry air is lurking and the global models aren't too bullish. With the way thing have been going lately, another weak TS is likely, if it develops of course. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:15, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's now 60/80! I see this potentially becoming Hilda, but since it is very likely to develop at this point, I guess it'll only be a weak to moderate TS. I still hope this system tries its hardest though. Better a strong TS/minimal hurricane than another weakling fail like Felicia. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:04, August 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilda
now TS. it going to follow Guillermo's track. it has hurricane in 5-days <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:53, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Still a somewhat elongated system and may be attached ITCZ. Dry air looks to be not too favorable after 2-3 days. The NHC's peak intensity of 65 knots could be too high, but if it organizes quickly, it might become a hurricane before then. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:44, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * ATCF up to 45 knts, but with microwave imagery, a case could be made for 50 to 55 knots. Small ITCZ storms tend to have lots of ups and downs. This is likely an "up". But I will admit this has a good shot at becoming a solid Cat 1. Stronger still isn't something I'd bet one due to dry air, but if it can developed a structure that blocks out dry air well like what we've seen storms do furthe east in recent years, I guess a Cat 2/3 is possible. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:22, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hoping this does become a hurricane because Hilda currently stands as the only EPAC TC name to be used at least 6 times without ever reaching hurricane strength. Latest advisory has Hilda's intensity up to 50 kts/1001 mbar, with a forecast peak of 75 kts. Fingers crossed... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:42, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * I actually hadn't realized that...before I thought Erick was the only one, though he did finally make it to a hurricane two years ago, looks like it's Hilda's turn (though Hilda was a hurricane in the Atlantic a few times before 1979, retired in '64). In the Atlantic, Beryl and Ana are the only storms to be used every time since 1979 and never reach hurricane strength, excluding Ana's CPac incarnation last year. Ryan1000 20:57, August 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * we can use 2009's Carlos as an example. it formed in the ITCZ and became a hurricane. also it has some really nice-looking banding features in satellite imagery. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:43, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * I meant by the time Erick was coming around in 2013, that was also the case with Bud and Ernesto back in 2006 (EPac and ATL respectively), but either way it looks like Hilda is going to have her first shot at being a hurricane now too. Ryan1000 02:20, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hilda is still at 50 kts according to ATCF. Sigh... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:55, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * I still hope we see a hurricane from this! C'mon, Hilda, you've got this! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:47, August 7, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilda
Congratulations, Hilda! After 36 years of failing, you finally did it! 80 mph and 984 mbars as of the latest advisory. And like Guillermo, it's expected to pass north of Hawaii and not hit the islands. Ryan1000 22:09, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yes, YES!!!! Forecast peak of 85 kts as of now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:26, August 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well, Hilda finally became a hurricane after 36 years, but the bad news is Soudelor is going to make landfall in the next few hours, I won't be able to sleep easy knowing what the people in Taiwan have to go through, but at least Hilda became a hurricane.  leeboy100 My Talk! 22:46, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * This has bombed out. It's probs around 95 knots now, as very cold cloud tops have developed around a rapidly clearing eye. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:40, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * as YE is saying. Hilda is possibly a category 3 or even 4 now. the cloud tops are become even more colder than the last advisory. so we might a an special advisory asap. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:02, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this thing is going to be taking off very soon, it could even have a shot at cat 5 if it RI's quickly enough. But for a storm with a circulation this small, that's not too surprising, and it'll weaken just as fast eventually. Ryan1000 02:49, August 8, 2015 (UTC)

up to a C2!. has major in the crosshairs and the RI that's undergoing might evolve to a EI if the conditions are good. pretty rare for an ITCZ-born storm. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:44, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's not unheard of for small storms to explode here before, but they don't last long at peak intensity when they do so. Hilda should be a cat 3 soon, and could be a 4 afterwards if favorable conditions persist. Ryan1000 11:41, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Just a hair below MH strength per ATCF: EP, 10, 2015080812,, BEST, 0, 135N, 1416W, 95, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 10, 1009, 150, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014, Come on Hilda, become a major! You got this! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:04, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Wow. Hilda made me eat my words. --Puffle Let's party HARD!
 * Likely around 100 knots. CPHC is just dumb. Eye has been warming, become more cloud-free, and more circular, and the cloud tops are quite cold still. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:26, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now a Category 1, forecasting to head towardsHawaii on Thursday. Hurricane Cardozo2 23:49, August 11, 2015 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Hilda
YES!!! 100 kts/967 mbar per CPHC. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:53, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Likely around 115 knts now. Very impressive and eye is still warming. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:45, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Based on the CPHC's wording, I was a little surprised to see Hilda become a major hurricane. But they just updated their website, and some of you may not believe this - 120 knots (140 mph)/946 mbar (hPa; 27.94 inHg)! Dolores is being challenged for her bronze intensity position. No new advisory or discussion yet, but I am surprised at how far Hilda has come. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:45, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * 120 is supported by sat estimates. FTR, Andres is still the strongest storm of the year at 130 knots/938 mbar. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:52, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Category 4 now. Hilda has exploded!  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:24, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well... talk about shattering a trend of failing! This reminds me somewhat of how Dean in the Atlantic had only reached hurricane strength once prior to 2007, and then we all know what the 2007 incarnation pulled off. Hopefully Hilda won't be nearly as destructive, but with a little luck, we could have our first CPAC Category 5 since Ioke on the horizon. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:33, August 8, 2015 (UTC)
 * This has peaked probably, but boy it has been a fun run. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:04, August 8, 2015 (UTC)

Hilda's eye has been filling up in recent satellite images, this means that Hilda is possibly weakening by the GHWS (Great Hawaiian Wind Shear) <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:08, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's not shear. If it was, the storm's eye would be cloudy but it wouldn't be nearly as vertically stacked. That is not the case. In fact, wind shear is currently 1 knot per SHIPS output, and is forecast to relax to 0 knots in 6-12 hours and will be less than 5 knots through tomorrow. Then the GHS kicks in. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:20, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * It probably peaked yesterday, Hilda's now down to 125 mph and will slowly weaken from here on out. Ryan1000 11:25, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hilda's organization indeed seems to have collapsed recently, and its pressure has been raised to 953 mbar (hPa; 28.15 inHg). Although there is a chance the hurricane could rebound once more in the next day or so because of the low shear YE mentioned above, the CPHC does not call for it, and I also think Hilda should not get any stronger than 115 knots before the GHS kicks in and shreds it into oblivion. Motionwise, Hilda is moving alongside the edge of a ridge to its NE, and is forecast to turn more westwards towards the end of the CPHC forecast period. I don't think Hawaii should see anything significant out of Hilda, but the latest CPHC forecast cone contains the Big Island. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:01, August 9, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilda (2nd time)
It has gone down to hurricane strength per the CPHC, with 110 mph winds recorded. It was impressive and awesome that it broke the long streak of being a TS, and completely demolishing that streak by becoming a major! :D Nice one, Hilda, you are an epic win and deserve an award! But now that it's down to hurricane strength, the next thing to worry about is that the CPHC's forecast cone takes the storm down to the Big Island of Hawaii, but only as a weakling by then. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:00, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hilda is my 2nd favorite storm of the year, behind Andres. However, Hilda has continued to degrade on satellite imagery, and its pressure has slightly risen to 964 mbar (hPa; 28.47 inHg). As the hurricane rounds the edge of its steering ridge, it should move more NW due to a lack of steering flow. Moreover, how weak it gets in the next couple of days will make a difference in its motion. If Hilda stays strong, the CPHC notes it may move more northerly due to steering flow. However, if the hurricane rapidly weakens, it may move more westerly due to steering flow. Regardless, Hilda should start weakening more rapidly because of the combination of some 40 knots of shear forecasted by SHIPS from the subtropical jet stream and the GHS, and even if it does reach the Big Island, impacts will be minimal. On a side note, I would like to point out how tiny Hilda is - gale-force winds extend just 90 miles from its center! This will make it very susceptible to even minor environmental changes. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:32, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * For me, it's my 3rd favorite in the EPac this year, behind Andres (that powerful early season guy) and Dolores (the one that brought record July rains to help with our drought). Anyways, parts of Hawaii should prepare for potentially heavy rains and flooding. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 01:59, August 10, 2015 (UTC)


 * Heeeeey Hilda! Looks like you deserve a big fat hug from your sister Zelda! :D You were ace, girl.  rarity is best pony 02:35, August 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Regarding the size, the CPHC has been overestimating it per recon as I suspected, and there are almost no gale force winds on the SW side per recon. Intensity guess per what Recon was sampled so far: 95/970. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:45, August 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hilda is currently 90 mph as of the latest advisory. The forecast track still takes it down to the Big Island of Hawaii, so they may get some impacts, but probably not too severe. Zelda, give Hilda a big fat hug before she dies! :O --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:08, August 10, 2015 (UTC)
 * It probably won't reach the islands. Hilda is not very big, it's not moving very fast (only 8 mph to the WNW), and shear will increase to 30-50 knots by tomorrow, which should tear Hilda apart before so much as touching the big island. Ryan1000 02:36, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I actually think it could still have a chance to touch the islands, but probably only as depression or remnant low. Anyways, it has now weakened to 85 mph. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:02, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * There's a TS watch up for the big island now, if it makes it there it'll only be a weak TS or depression. If it makes landfall there, it'd be the second year in a row with a Hawaii landfall (3rd if you could Flossie's close brush in 2013), but damage won't be too bad if it does so. Ryan1000 18:31, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * I agree. Hurricane Cardozo2 23:50, August 11, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilda (2nd time)
downgraded to TS... its getting literally trashed by the GHWS. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:35, August 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * And Hawaii might not get much anymore, either. It just hilariously became a wind shear victim, saving the Hawaiians from impacts (lol). The forecast track is now all south of the Big Island, and they are now unlikely to get anything thanks to the wind shear. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 02:44, August 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hilda is almost dead now. Current winds are 40 mph, and the pressure is 1005 MB. Bye, Hilda! Luckily it didn't do much to Hawaii. Now we just have to wait for it to die out completely during the next day or so. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:35, August 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * ...which should be soon. Hilda's LLCC is evidently exposed on satellite imagery, and its forward speed has increased. Surrounded by some 30 knots of shear, the CPHC expects Hilda's demise in about 48 hours, although SHIPS predicts a faster dissipation. As most models predict, the storm should be steered generally westward by steering flow until dissipation, keeping it away from Hawaii. However, the CPHC warns a moisture plume associated with Hilda may still cause heavy flooding and landslides in Hawaii over the next few days, so the islands should not write off the system yet. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:29, August 13, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilda
...aaaaand that's a wrap. Thank you Hilda for finally becoming a hurricane! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:29, August 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * Hilda's actually still lingering near 160W and producing shower activity here and now. However, upper-level winds will most likely stop her from coming back together, and her chances of regeneration are near 0% for the next 48 hours. Thank you for your performance, Hilda! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:24, August 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * And...the environmental conditions have destroyed ex-Hilda. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:27, August 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * Aww dammit! Missed Hilda... I was having so much fun in the Netherlands :p  rarity is best pony 18:26, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * I just noticed that over the past decade or so, there has been a trend of long streaks of failure coming to an end, with any particular name enjoying its first round as a hurricane after several unsuccessful attempts. 2006 had Bud and Ernesto; 2011 had Irwin; 2013 had Erick; last year had Arthur; and so far this year we've had Hilda. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:58, August 27, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF storm #4
ECMWF hints at something in 8 days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Correct me if this isn't the same storm, but this invest is behind Hilda and at 50% for 5 days. Likely to be Ignacio eventually. Ryan1000 21:05, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * I hope we see this become Ignacio. It's got plenty of potential to do so, currently! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:48, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, I may have spoke too soon. It's now down to 20% and is likely to encounter less favorable conditions for development from here on out. Ryan1000 11:25, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Oh... But actually, it still remains similar in organization, and it could still develop in the next couple days before hostile conditions really take over. I think a depression is possible, but unlikely, if it rapidly develops by tomorrow. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:11, August 9, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's at 10/10, so it won't develop unless it pulls off an extreme surprise. Ignacio will have to wait. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 02:03, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

Still 10/10. It'll just get ripped apart by more hostile conditions soon. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:11, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

20/20. organizing very quickly. it can be Ignacio at this pace! -<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:30, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Woah, guess what? It's now up to 50/50. I really think it could become a depression now! See, I had this slight feeling about the invest all this time! Ignacio only has a slight shot at happening though, due to the conditions it's about to enter, but if it does become named, it'll epically fail on the scale of Felicia, or maybe even worse. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:51, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * And it went poof. Ugh. 10/10. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:48, August 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * "Ugh"? If it would have ever developed, it would have been bound to be an epic fail weakling anyway. The invest remains 10/10, and development just won't happen anymore. I'm actually a bit glad it didn't continue to rapidly develop and steal the name "Ignacio", but I'm also a little disappointed it didn't ever reach the depression stage. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 02:33, August 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * This invest has now dropped off the TWO. Nice try, though! The conditions were just preventing this from becoming a depression, and it tried its hardest to fight off the conditions a couple times (like when it upgraded to 50/50 a couple days ago). --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:33, August 13, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS storm #3
12z GFS has a storm by day 15, so if this happens, it will be mid-August. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:41, July 26, 2015 (UTC)

I'm not too sure if this is the same system, but it's near Mexico and has a 10/70 chance in the long run. This could be our potential Jimena, unless the rapidly organizing invest above fails to become named. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:57, August 11, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this was the one in the long-run, it's likely to be a strong storm as it heads out to sea, possibly even a major by next week if it gets lucky. Ryan1000 18:31, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * 20/90. Could become Ignacio, though iffy on how strong. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:47, August 12, 2015 (UTC)
 * 30/90! We could see Ignacio out of this, you guys! I'm glad that name didn't go to the above weakling. *sigh of relief* I'm thinking a major is possible out of this, due to favorable conditions in the long run. Here comes our next named storm! :) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 02:40, August 13, 2015 (UTC)

I'm expecting a possible C4/C5 out of this if the conditions are good, also note that it mimics last years Marie's track .<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:59, August 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Don't wanna sound rude, but there's nothing right now that suggests this will become higher than a minimal hurricane honestly, likely due to its broad size. We'll see, but let's not get gungho on Cat 4/5 yet. And why are you guys glad 93E didn't get named? Don't you guys wanna go as far down the list as possible? I never really understood why people think names are wasted if it's used by a weak TS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:42, August 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * YE, there are a few reasons why. First of all, the name that a system wastes could be a precious one that we like and root for it to be used for a powerful system. Second, epic fail TS's are just a waste of time and energy, and it would suck even more to see them steal and hijack names off the lists. Or they just basically...troll us, by stealing the name by strengthening to 40 mph, and immediately weakening afterwards. Finally, I would like to go as far down the list as possible too, but as long as there's not too many weak TS's trolling us by hijacking names off the lists. The 2013 Atlantic season was a horrible case in this matter, with the season basically being filled with weakling TS's. I never want to see a repeat of that, with most names being used for weaklings, so I would prefer if a system receives a name that it doesn't epically fail. Back to the system, it's now 50/90 and looking pretty good. An Ignacio is very likely in the next few days, with a potential shot at major status. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:43, August 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * I am not sure why this AOI is not invested yet given the high percentage, but at the same time, it is still rather disorganized. Also, in response to what Steve wrote above - I agree with your first point, as for instance, I was disappointed when Fengshen, the Chinese god of wind, did not become a typhoon last year. As for your second reasoning, I will not disagree, but you should at least be thankful that the name was used. I really could not care less when Ela barely scraped TS intensity, but was excited to see the CPAC heat up so early. Also, I follow your logic behind the last point, but many "awesome" seasons are going to have one "fail" (case and point Fausto from last year). Now, I hope Ignacio can become a major as well, but this is dependent on its environment. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:40, August 13, 2015 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
80/90. That IMO is a bit to high. Will be lucky if this forms on Saturday, and at best IMO here we're looking at a minimal hurricane. The shear is low and the waters are warm, but none of the guidance has a grip on this as been the case for most of the storms the past year and a half, so I really don't know what to expect, but I'm thinking a strong TS/weak hurricane. As for the naming wasting, names aren't as precious as made out to be on here. Sure, if it's name I like (like Guillermo) I want it be strong, but IMO it's not enough for me to not root for it to become named. I'd rather finish 16/8/5 than 10/8/5. What made 2013 AHS wasn't necessarily all the weaklings, it was the overall lack of strong storms. I don't mind a few weaklings as long as if there are 4-5 powerful systems. But that's just me. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  18:18, August 14, 2015 (UTC)


 * 94E seems better organized than yesterday, but it evidently lacks a central convection on satellite imagery. YE, the NHC does expect the invest to become a TD Saturday or Sunday, and says conditions are favorable for further development. Intensitywise, I'm thinking something along the lines of Cosme '13, which became a Category 1, only to quickly weaken afterwards due to its large size (which seems a similar case with 94E). Any other predictions? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:21, August 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * 94E isn't organizing. There is no sign of an LLC whatsoever, and the wind of this thing are likely 10-15 knts. The upper level envirment is very favorable for now, yes, but I think the NHC (and I don't say this too often) may be too bullish here. I'm expecting a mid-grade TS if that as the system will be move quickly WNW, and SST's start to drop off north of 20N, and the GFS has a lot of dry air affecting what should be an inner core-less tropical cyclone in 2 days. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  07:03, August 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * Most of 94E's organization remains confined from the center, and it looks like it may never get the first advisory if it does not come together quick enough. The NHC also is now stating that conditions will get less favorable after Monday, so the window is indeed fading. Regardless, chances of formation for 94E in the next 48 hours have been upgraded to 90%. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:39, August 15, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
It's here, but not forecast to become much. Earlier on, I thought it could've had a chance to become something big, but it's too broad and elongated to be able to intensify fast. Well, at least Ignacio will probably be coming from this. Ryan1000 02:49, August 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * At least it developed. However, its large size has really gone against it - most of its convection is stretched out, and I can't even make out a center on satellite imagery. Thanks to an ASCAT pass - winds are still 30 knots (35 mph), with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). As a low pressure system and STR over the SW United States steer Eleven-E more NW, its large size will actually help perserve the depression for another day before degenerating, as the NHC forecasts. So much for a tropical storm! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:09, August 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * what the heck is this? looks more like a WPac JMA depression than your typical EPac TD. -<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:31, August 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * This system is just a pathetic little fail I'm looking at. It's down to 30 mph, and should degenerate into a remnant low overnight. I am really glad that 11-E didn't become named, then otherwise, it would've been one of the most extreme fails known to man. Remember when we were thinking this system would turn into a potential major. Nope, didn't happen. Not even close. I'd be extremely shocked if this little depression jumped up 10 mph and hijacked a lovely, unique, likeable, awesome, etc. name from the EPac lists before it dies. But that has like a very low chance of happening, thank god. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 03:10, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E
After being of deep convection for a lot of time, Eleven-E has degenerated into a remnant low. Ignacio will have to wait. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:51, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Glad it didn't become named. If it did, we would be laughing at how much of a name waste that was. Looks like Ignacio should be saved for something hopefully worth tracking! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 20:30, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:Middle of Nowhere
I don't know if this is really worth mentioning, but the CPHC is tracking a 0/0 AOI west of Hilda associated with a weak surface trough and a weak upper low. I think this honestly won't develop! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:08, August 11, 2015 (UTC)

I love the title lol. it can slowly develop though. if the circulation of Hilda gets absorbed into it. i'd expect to be quickly named. c'mon we need a 4th named CPac storm! <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:24, August 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * I don't think this will get named. It's still near 0% and development is just...extremely unlikely due to unfavorable conditions. There's a possibility the circulation of Hilda could get absorbed, but it'll have to survive the conditions first. And about the title: It was literally in a place I couldn't really think of a title, so I just put that. :D I could have went with "near Hawaii", but that's not really specific enough. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 02:37, August 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. It didn't really do much other than existing. Honestly, this wasn't even worth tracking, since unfavorable conditions just ripped it apart as expected. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:46, August 13, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: SE of Hilo
A new low pressure area has sprung up near the CPAC/EPAC boundary. Shower activity is currently disorganized, but environmental conditions might prompt some development over the next couple days. Currently, the CPHC gives the AOI a 10% chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:12, August 17, 2015 (UTC)

well at least we are possibly getting Kilo from this. -<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:32, August 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * 50% shot of developing in the next 48 hours. :) I hope Kilo is worth it. This needs to be something good, and I would appreciate it if it doesn't fail and achieves hurricane strength! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 03:14, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

93C.INVEST
invest'd. has some developing banding. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:32, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Still 50%, and Kilo should come out of this during the next couple of days. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 20:31, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Three-C
uh oh... possible major and 92' Iniki repeat here. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:06, August 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * That would be scary. If this system does approach Hawaii, let's hope it doesn't get so powerful when it strikes. Iniki was just very devastating for them, and I don't want the same to happen with this system. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:43, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * Kilo to-be probably won't become a terrifyingly strong category 4 like Iniki was, but a cat 2, as currently forecasted, or minimal cat 3 landfall over Kauai is still a potentially dangerous scenario. This one definitely bears watching. Ryan1000 21:08, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * My take is that there is good agreement that this will pass close to Hawaii as a strong hurricane, but it's uncertain on how close this comes. We still don't have a fully consolidated center yet. Right now, I'd follow the mutli-model consensus TVCE. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:56, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kilo
...and we tied 1982's record! <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:52, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * This system appears to be following in the footsteps of Iniki, but hopefully it shouldn't be as destructive. Geez, the CPac won't calm down this year! If 4-C also becomes named, this could be like...the most active the CPac has ever been in written records. Just insane... --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:01, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Kilo looks pretty much sheared. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:28, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * Most of Kilo's convection seems to be displaced to its northwest, and the LLCC looks fairly visible on satellite imagery. As a result, the CPHC has kept the storm's intensity at 35 knots (40 mph)/1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). Most models forecast Kilo to move around the big ridge to its north before turning NE, although ECMWF brings the storm much farther west than other predictions. I personally believe Kilo will start veering towards Hawaii in about three or four days. Intensitywise, there should be a lot of potential, as SST's are above 29C, shear will be decreasing in the next few days, and OHC values are similarly on the rise. The official forecast calls for 85 knots (100 mph), but I won't rule out a major here. On a side note, the upcoming U.S. Air Force flights into Kilo should give us a better idea of what to expect from the storm, and how Hawaii needs to prepare for this. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:19, August 22, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Kilo
Man, this thing got shredded, maybe it won't reach Hawaii after all. Ryan1000 13:01, August 22, 2015 (UTC)

i think why Kilo got shredded is Kilo's speed. its moving at Chantal speed and its circulation can dissipate at any moment. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:39, August 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * Dang, Kilo has been moving at a ridiculously fast forward speed, meaning that its circulation has been really struggling to keep alive. Though, it shouldn't be written off completely yet, as the forecast regenerates it on Monday, and there's even a hurricane point at the very end of the forecast currently. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:02, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * Sorry if I sound rude but this struggling was totally expected by both the GFS/ECMWF. And Odile, it wasn't moving that fast, around 15 knots. Hayian was moving at similar speeds and it was likely near 175-180 knots. As for track, models are going back and forth a lot, but I still think this will pass just west of Kaui. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:57, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * While it has been struggling lately, it's expected to come back to life and strengthen to a hurricane. This doesn't look like a Hawaii threat anymore, luckily. I expect it to peak at strong C1/C2 strength, and major status might not even be completely out of the question after all. It seems somewhat unlikely that it'll become a major though. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:54, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * This should become a major in around 5-7 days before it enters the WPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:42, August 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * Okay. Yes, sometimes I worry that I am too optimistic about a system when I forecast a major but a major is not in the forecast. Anyway, this should become something powerful and fun to track in the long run. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:55, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

How the heck can a system spend so much time as a depression? For crying out loud, Kilo, do something! Either die or live, don't just exist! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 13:42, August 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * COME ON KILO!! It's even 30 mph right now. Forecast doesn't make it a hurricane anymore :(( DO SOMETHING! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:33, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * I still think this will be at least a hurricane just outside the 5 day forecast window. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:30, August 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * Kilo has recently generated a nice burst of deep convection. moreover it's moving slowly and it's a good sign that it's regenerating. --<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  00:53, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, now it seems to be finally regenerating after all this time! This is because it strengthened to 35 mph since the last time I posted. It should restrengthen to a TS by tomorrow, and remain at that strength for the rest of the forecast period. I do think it might have a slight shot at hurricane status though, but probably outside of the 5-day forecast window. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:23, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Kilo (2nd time)
At last!!! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:52, August 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * after than a week of being a boring TD. Kilo has finally woken up. Kilo should keep organizing. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:05, August 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * Apparently, the Hawaiian threat we were discussing earlier will not materialize. However, Johnston Atoll needs to watch out for Kilo - the storm is within 100 miles of the island and rainfall totals could near 15 inches there. Intensitywise, Kilo's developing organization has prompted the CPHC to upgrade its winds to 60 knots (70 mph) based on the latest Dvorak estimates, with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.24 inHg). For a system which had the persistent possibility of dying over the CPAC waters, I'm glad Kilo finally got it together. Motionwise, most models are in agreement with the storm moving westwards around a ridge to its north for the next couple days, but then spread out as this influence weakens. Nevertheless, Kilo is currently forecast to round the ridge and enter an area of weaker steering currents. While this will take the storm over favorable SST's of 29C, moderate shear should prevent Kilo from RI'ing like Jimena could, and the CPHC forecasts peak winds of 85 knots (100 mph) at the end of their forecast period. However, I believe this may be a little conservative, as the agency is following the lower end of the SHIPS guidance. Nevertheless, the Hawaiian islands just affected by Loke should consider being affected again by another system in the long-term. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:15, August 28, 2015 (UTC)

94C.INVEST
10% for now. euro shows Wene-like system. should become Loke or Etau. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:06, August 20, 2015 (UTC)
 * CPHC needs to man up and call this a TD. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:57, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * maybe the CPHC did hear you and it's upped to 60%. Loke is in the way! <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014

Tropical Depression Four-C
Upped. Likely a minimal TS coming. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  05:45, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * its moving very slowly to the north. so it has a lot of chances of becoming Loke. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:02, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * If this system becomes Loke, it'll break the record of 4 storms forming in the CPac in 1982, since this would be the 5th named storm and become the most active CPac season ever. This El Nino just really fueled up the CPac this year, lol. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:04, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Loke
...Which it just did Steven! Forecast to head north and out to sea, not becoming too strong on the way. Ryan1000 21:08, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

the HWRF likes it for some reason... makes it a C1-C2 fish typhoon... <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:11, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * HWRF isn't exactly the most reliable model when it comes to intensity forecasting, they're good with some storms but not with others. The global models (GFS and Euro) don't do much with this but take it north and out to sea. Ryan1000 21:21, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * I knew the CPAC had been very active this year so far, but I never expected this. Kilo stole Iwa's record as the earliest 4th named CPAC storm by three months, and now, Loke has made 2015 the year to have used the most EPAC names. Winds are currently 40 knots (45 mph) per the CPHC, with a pressure of 1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg), but the agency says this could be an underestimate based on its satellite appearance. Loke is moving north around a ridge to the west of Hawaii, and should continue to do so for the next several days while possibly interacting with a trough near the Date Line. Building on to Ryan's point, the CPHC discussion notes that despite being in low shear and SST's above 28C, the GFS dissipates Loke by the end of the forecast peak. Nevertheless, the official forecast peak of 55 knots (65 mph) is good for me; Loke is already a win IMO for the aforementioned record. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:47, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Loke
...aaaaaand its pretty much dead... Atsani's outer bands can absorb Loke in the future. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:36, August 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * The CPHC still forecasts Loke to restrengthen to a TS, so let's not write it off completely yet. I think it's only just in an unfavorable environment for now. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:59, August 22, 2015 (UTC)


 * and Loke produced a nice burst of convection. i think it's a TS IMO. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:47, August 23, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Loke (2nd time)
You guys right off storms too easily. Back to TS and if this can build an inner core and dry air, 55 knts is possible, maybe a weak Cat 1. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:00, August 23, 2015 (UTC)

I'm also expecting a strong TS or low-range C1. Atsani's outer bands might absorb Loke at the end of the forecast. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:18, August 23, 2015 (UTC)


 * I also expect it to peak in this range. Loke has an outside shot at becoming a hurricane, but only a weak one (C1 at most). But for now, the forecast keeps it as a TS throughout the 5-day period, but a hurricane might not be out of the question. A tropical storm watch has also been issued for the reefs and atolls northwest of Hawaii. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:52, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's now 65 mph! O.O And predicted to become a hurricane. I think it might get as powerful as C2 actually. The TS watches have just been upgraded all the way to hurricane warnings for most of the areas I mentioned above. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:08, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Loke
Upgraded to 65 kts/990 mbar with the latest intermediate advisory. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:58, August 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * ...and that means Loke is the strongest CPac-born storm since Neki in 2009. (6 years ago!) <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:32, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's now forecast to dissipate as soon as tomorrow. Ha, maybe it wasn't meant to be that strong. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:34, August 25, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Loke (3rd time)
And down to a TS again. Ryan1000 03:08, August 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * Should be extratropical by the next advisory. It's also moving pretty rapidly northwestward, too; with a recorded speed of 30 mph seen on the latest advisory info. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:20, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * This image perfectly describes Loke (the storm):  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 19:05, August 26, 2015 (UTC)Just-loki-being-loki_o_333985.jpg


 * what is impressing all of us is how Loke is managing to still be tropical at that high! on a side note. Loke has crossed to the western pacific. (tied 1997 in CPac crossovers!) <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:02, August 27, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Loke
Now it's extratropical over the waters of the north pacific. Ryan1000 11:46, August 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * I wasn't able to comment on Loke when it became a hurricane, but I was surprised it managed to pull this off. Also, Odile, you are forgetting about 2013 - Pewa, Unala, and Three-C (i.e. three straight systems) crossed into the WPAC that year. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:03, August 28, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: Middle of Nowhere (2)​
0% now. should become Malia <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:06, August 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * 10%. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:02, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * ...aaaaaaand its dropped. really at 10%? oh well. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:29, August 21, 2015 (UTC)



Aoi:ECMWF system #1
10/50. Could be a weak TS near 135W. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:01, August 21, 2015 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
invest'd. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:44, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * 20/60. This could be our Ignacio, hopefully! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:58, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * its pretty much a tiny system... <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:44, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * And rather disorganized and restricted of thunderstorm activity. Although the NHC says conditions could prompt 95E to further develop, I'm not as crazy for this as I am with Kilo or even Loke. Also, chances of formation have dropped to 50% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:05, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm not really expecting this to develop much, and it's 20/40 on the latest TWO. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:02, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might briefly form before being absorbed by the system to its east. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:54, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually it won't, it's down to 10/10 and is very disorganized. It'll just be absorbed into the system to its east before it can even get its act together. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:44, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Steve, sorry, wrong system. In previous runs, they did merge this with the system near it, but it looks like the GFS/ECMWF no longer show this, however. Anyhow, this up to 50/70, but you're right this is poorly organized. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:20, August 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's ok. This system is now 70/80, and here comes Ignacio! Hopefully it's something nice to track. :) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:59, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

NHC might up this at 3z. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:30, August 25, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
...and they did, but it's only forecast to peak at 60 kts as of now :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:48, August 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * Ah well. Maybe 96E (Jimena-to be) will be more interesting. Ryan1000 03:19, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * It might get a bit stronger than that if it develops an inner core. Big if though, but bears watching, even if we only get a strong TS/weak Cat 1. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:04, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Ignacio is almost here!! Looks like a hurricane is in the forecast. I say it will peak at C2 or a strong C1. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:27, August 25, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ignacio
YES!.--<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:36, August 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * Eh...late forecast period does make this a hurricane that could threaten the Big Island...this is something to watch out for. Ryan1000 03:08, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Up to 60 mph/999 mbar! While it could become a somewhat powerful hurricane, Hawaii might need to watch out in the long run. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:12, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Can I call Ignacio "Iselle" from now on?  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 19:04, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * What's up with the Ignacio vs. Iselle comparisons. The guidance has this either going north or south of Hawaii. Anyhow, ATCF has this up at 55 knt. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  19:58, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Stroking Hawaii on Monday... stop it Iselle I meant Ignacio... you're such a flirt...  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 21:33, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Hurricane Ignacio
Now a hurricane, though the peak forecast still calls for only a cat 2. I'd expect at least a 3 from this, or a 4 like Iselle of last year. Ryan1000 03:09, August 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * it's possible that Ignacio is rapidly intensifying. eye-like feature visible in eir (enhanced infrared) imagery. otherwise it has an well-developed eyewall. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  04:07, August 27, 2015 (UTC)


 * I think I was able to spot Ignacio's eyewall on Wunderground imagery - is it that small dent in the system's circular portion? However, most of the hurricane's deepest convection is confined to its southern quadrant, and Dvorak estimates for the CPHC's first advisory prompt no intensity change from the NHC's final one - 80 knots (90 mph)/982 mbar (hPa; 29.00 inHg). For the next several days, the STR is forecast to steer Ignacio straight towards Hawaii as a system stronger than Guillermo (which, BTW, I think would be better system to compare this hurricane to versus Iselle). I'm not sure why the CPHC is not explicitly forecasting RI yet; perhaps it might be due to the potential predicted moderate shear amounts, but SST's of ~28C may nevertheless prompt the intensity takeoff. However, increasing shear about three days out will likely cap off any additional intensification hereafter. Regardless, Hawaii is looking at another potential hurricane threat in several days based on the CPHC forecast (man, have they been affected a lot from these lately?) Nacho (the Spanish nickname for Ignacio), get strong, but keep your rainbands off land, please! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:40, August 28, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMWF/GFS system
10/20. Both main models develop this somewhat and have it eating 95E. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:54, August 23, 2015 (UTC)


 * 20/70! I think we might finally see Ignacio here... :) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:45, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Whoops, this is the 10/10 one. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:18, August 24, 2015 (UTC)
 * And now it's off the TWO. See, this failed to become anything significant! I believe it is starting to get absorbed into the nearby invest, or the one about to be Ignacio. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:03, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:ECMF system #2
0/20. GFS and ECMWf make this powerful. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:01, August 21, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's pinned at 0/40 as of the latest TWO. I expect to see something out of this in the long run, and it could really be our Ignacio assuming the above 20/40 system doesn't develop. According to the TWO;


 * A low pressure area is expected to form well south of the coast of
 * Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions should support
 * gradual development of the system while it moves west-northwestward
 * at 10 to 15 mph.


 * Thus, Ignacio is likely out of this, and it could even be something powerful as time goes on. I'm thinking this will possibly develop by about Tuesday-ish. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:11, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * And now the chances of development during the next 5 days has been upped to 50% according to the 11 AM PDT tropical outlook! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:57, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * 5 days has increased to 70%. 48 hours still remains the same though...0%. It might be Jimena unless it develops faster than the 20/70 system above. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:47, August 23, 2015 (UTC)
 * Now it's on the 48 hour outlook at 10% (80% for 5 days). I have a feeling this might be something powerful. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:11, August 24, 2015 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invest'd. Ryan1000 03:19, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Likely won't develop for a few more days, but in the long range, models make this a potent hurricane nearing 140W. Here we go again. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:05, August 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Again, this could be something powerful. 40/80. Here comes possibly another major!! Jimena should be its name. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:29, August 25, 2015 (UTC)

100%/100%!!! LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, PUT YOUR HANDS IN THE AIR FOR JIMENA!!!! (bass drops) rarity is best pony 14:05, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it's 100/100 and looking fine. Why can't NHC upgrade the darn thing already? It's a depression and they know it! Jimena is coming soon, get ready! :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:10, August 26, 2015 (UTC)
 * IM SCREAMING IM SCREAMING OMG OMG SERIOUSLY NHC WHY CANT YOU ALREADY MAKE JIMENA A STORM OH MY DAMMIT GOD AWWWW DONT MAKE JIMENA SAD SHE IS MY LITTLE PRECIOUS CINNAMON ROLL TOO GOOD FOR THIS WORLD JUST LOOK AT THE CUTE LITTLE SMILE ON HER FACE I THINK MY HEART JUST STOPPED FOR A MINUTE AND I THINK I I CANT HANDLE THE CUTENESS ITS OVER 9000 YOU NEED TO DO SOMETHING BEFORE SOMETHING GOES TERRIBLY WRONG
 * Yes anyway... Steve... That was my reaction when they wouldn't upgrade the dammit thing. I think they're either having a hangover from last night (Tuesday) that just seems to last forever, or they haven't woken up yet since they've taken too many sleeping pills after failing to fall asleep while tracking Ignacio and Erika all night.
 * Anyway.... this is the song to describe this hectic week in hurricane land.... LET THE BEET DROP!   blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 19:02, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E

 * WE HAVE JIMENA! DEEZ NUTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR BY MONDAY 11AM PDT!!!! WE HAVE ANOTHER ISELLE IN THE MAKING!!  blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 150px-PrussiaChibi.png 21:21, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

This little precious cinnamon roll, too good for this world, too pure, is moving westwards. I think Jimena deserves her own little cinnamon roll. Let her enjoy her holiday to Hawaii while it lasts. Here's an inspirational quote from the weathermen:

<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;line-height:normal;text-align:center;">...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL WEST OF MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND...

<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:12px;font-weight:bold;line-height:normal;text-align:center;">Let's turn up the bass and create a tremor for Jimena! We all like to party and we are doing it right now, losing our minds! So, TURN UP THE DAMN SPEAKERS! WE ARE FLIPPIN ANIMALS!

blow a kiss fier a gun all wee need is somebodey to leen on 21:24, August 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * it seems that 13-E (which is coincidentally my age) is a long-range threat to hawaii. deez nutz, ha! gaaaat 'eem! also is possibly attached to the ITCZ. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  00:56, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's IMO not. Both the GFS and ECMWF recurve this near 140W. It may not even enter the CPAC. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:44, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * Gonna be a bit strong on the way though, it's already forecast to become a cat 3 by the end of the period. Ryan1000 03:09, August 27, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Jimena
It's only a 40 mph tropical storm now, but it already looks like an organizing hurricane on sattelite imagery. Forecast peak now upped to cat 4, but it could even become a 5. Ryan1000 11:46, August 27, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's probably a hurricane now. Great chance for Category 5, and almost certain a Category 4.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:52, August 28, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm super excited to see what Jimena does in the next several days. It's not slated to affect land anytime soon, is in SST's nearing 30C, and is coping with an environment with low shear and quite the moisture. Moreover, I can evidently find the storm's center on Wunderground imagery. Based on Dvorak estimates, the NHC has already upped Jimena's winds to 50 knots (60 mph), with a pressure of 999 mbar (hPa; 29.50 inHg). With SHIPS showing a 50 percent chance of RI in the next 24 hours, the NHC has upped their forecast peak for the storm to 120 knots (140 mph), but I think 130-135 knots (150-155 mph), if not Category 5 intensity, is possible, given the agency's conservative bias when it comes to stronger systems. Motionwise, Jimena should track westward under the influence of a ridge to its north for another couple days, before moving more WNW as this influence weakens, based on the NHC forecast! Come on, Jimena! You got this! :) P.S. For the record, Liz and anyone else who might be interested in this trivia fact, Jimena is a very lucky EPAC name intensitywise. All but one of its six previous incarnations became hurricanes, and four of the five that did became Category 4's. Will we see five for seven here? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:54, August 28, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS/CMC system
GFS shows another system around the very end of the month. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:01, August 21, 2015 (UTC)


 * I'm not sure if this is the correct system, but the NHC is acknowledging the development of a low pressure system SW of Mexico in a few days. Even if it does coming together, it might have to deal with the wake of Ignacio and Jimena. Chances of formation are currently near 0% for the next two days and 20% for the next five. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:00, August 28, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: S of the Big Island
Between Kilo and Ignacio, a new AOI has formed in the CPAC. However, little development is expected from it in the next few days. Chances of formation are currently near 0% for the next 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:56, August 28, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
We don't yet have anything that stands much of a chance of retirement, but six storms (with a seventh on the horizon) is enough for me, so without further ado...


 * EPAC
 * Andres: 0% - A fish is a fish is a fish, but I'll be damned if this wasn't a fantastic early-season surprise.
 * Blanca: 1% - Intriguing to track, plus it was incredible to end the first week of June with two Category 4 hurricanes under the EPAC's belt, but any impacts were meager.
 * Carlos: 4% - A tad worse than Blanca, but still not severe enough for retirement.
 * Dolores: 0% - It became respectably strong, but if there were any impacts, they were negligible.
 * Enrique: Fail% - Él es el perdedor.
 * Felicia: % - Gets an F-.


 * CPAC
 * Ela: -6% - 'Ell no. (I'm sorry)
 * Halola: Currently active
 * Iune: -4% - It failed miserably.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:42, July 11, 2015 (UTC)

The Steve has spoken:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))

EPac:


 * Andres:  0%  - Fishspinner. It won't be retired, even though it was such an awesome early season surprise.


 * Blanca: <font color="#77B">2.5%  - Baja got away with this girl. If anything, rainstorms in Baja and SoCal won't earn it much of a retirement chance, although it did cause some slight impact here and there.


 * Carlos: <font color="#359">5%  - Slow-moving coast of Mexico storm. I doubt it would be retired, but it did cause some impact in the country.


 * Dolores:  0%  - It did a nice job at the major part, but impacts, if any, were meager. Baja and SoCal shouldn't get much either.
 * Enrique:  0%  - See you in 2021!
 * Felicia:  0%  - Actually, it deserves lower than an F-. It gets a Z. Yeah, that's right, a Z! What an extreme epic fail that deserves a place in the Hurricane Hall of Epically Failing!
 * Guillermo:  0%  - Other than Hawaiian surf, this didn't cause much impacts other than spinning fish out in the middle of the Pacific ocean.
 * Hilda:  0%  - Hawaii never got much from her.
 * Ignacio: ? - Predictions will be released once the storm has dissipated.

CPac:


 * Ela:  0%  - Fishspinner, weakling...blah. What an epic fail, even though it formed in a rare basin.


 * Halola:  0%  - Also failed to affect land.


 * Iune:  0%  - Never in a million years.
 * Kilo: ? - Predictions will be released once the storm has dissipated.
 * Loke: ? - Predictions will be released once the storm has dissipated.

--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 15:56, July 12, 2015 (UTC)

Welp, here I go:

Andres: 0% - This did surprise me for an A-named storm, but no damages = meh.

Blanca: 3% - Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for Blanca's "Category 5 hype". Made landfall directly in the Baja peninsula, where odile lives right now, no retirements getting rubbed in my face yet...

Carlos: 27% - This one has a higher chance at retirement, Me and Odile on hypothetical hurricanes went INSANE for another "Category 5 hype". Killed 1 person and caused 1.1 million in damages. Slightly devastating for Mexico, but I don't see this one going either. #CarlosPLZ

Dolores: 0.0001% - FAIL... I'm sorry Dolores, Andres is way better looking than you

Enrique: <1% - Wait, wot? Sadly I would've expected a major from a storm named after my middle name.

FAILecia: Fail% - 0 Chances is enough for a name with FAIL in it.

Gullimero - <2% - these storms keep getting more fail-prone every time. Can't wait to see how much of a FAIL Hilda will be (despite that being my sister's name)

CPac Names

Don't really see any retirements yet, until Hawaii's smallest island disappears from storm surge.

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  16:03, July 18, 2015 (UTC)

odile's fun retirement chances with memes

(Retirement colors:  NaN%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.)) (thanks steve for the colors)

ayy lmao its my turn!

Andres:  NaN%  - meh.

Blanca:  NaN%  - as puffle says above.

Carlos: <font color="#70A"> carlos plz%  <font color="#4A0">25%  -  CARLOS PLZ! AIN'T NOBODY HAS TIME FO' THAT! still. carlos plz. can get a tiny shot at retirement because of the 17 million pesos on luxury yacht damage

Dolores:  15% - caused a lot of flood damage in the San Diego-Tijuana area.

Enrique:  NaN%  - HAHAHAHAHA will be suprised if it gets retired. just sayin'

F ail elicia: 💩% - [insert poop emoji here]

Guillermo:  NaN%  - fun to see an hurricane after fails.

Hilda:  NaN%  - OH NO! NO MORE FAILS... 😠😡😠😡😠

Ignacio: ???% - active. hope we dont see a fail.

cpac

Ela:  NaN%  - WORST. STORM. EVER.

Halola: <font color="#AAC">1%  - well it was a nearly record-breaking storm. i'll stay here. see ya in a looooooooooooooooooong time!

Iune:  NaN%  - wat

Kilo: ???% - active

L<strike style="font-style:inherit;font-weight:inherit;">I oke:  NaN%  - meh...

<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:18, July 19, 2015 (UTC)

Now it is time for my predictions:


 * 1) Andres - 1% - Andres was a true early surprise, and kudos to it for becoming the westernmost May major. While its remnant moisture did bring unseasonable rainfall to Phoenix and cause some power outages in Colorado, these have not been described as extreme. Therefore, I believe Andres will stay.
 * 2) Blanca - 2% - I am impressed that Blanca was able to become the earliest 2nd EPAC hurricane in general and reach the intensity it did. Its remnants brought some wave action to Puerto Vallarta and caused quite a few power outages. However, most of these were fixed within a day. Also, while SoCal did see some flooding from ex-Blanca, most of the rainfall was beneficial for the infamous drought there. Consequently, Blanca should stay as well.
 * 3) Carlos - 6% - Carlos was a little worse than either Andres or Blanca. It downed some trees and billboards around Acapulco. In addition, it sank the Bellísima luxury yacht and killed someone from falling metal. Nevertheless, most of the flooding was not widespread, and there do not seem to be extreme destruction reports from Carlos. As a result, the $1.1 million (2015 USD) price tag should not be enough for retirement.
 * 4) Ela - 0% - It was cool to see the CPAC come alive in the middle of July. But Ela did zilch to land, so you know the drill.
 * 5) Halola - TBA - Still Active
 * 6) Iune - 0% - Aside from being the earliest 3rd named CPAC storm, what did Iune do?
 * 7) Dolores - 1% - Like Andres, it was amazing to see Dolores unexpectedly become a Category 4 so quickly. Most of its impacts so far have been from its associated moisture and not the storm itself. Sure, SoCal saw some incredible rainfall (namely LA and San Diego!) from this that was "historic", but most of the precipitation will be beneficial for the area. As a matter of fact, a persistent wildfire in Cajon Pass was exhausted because of ex-Dolores's moisture. So, Dolores, you are staying put, too.
 * 8) Enrique - 0% - Enrique did surprise me with his persistence against his environment, and even became a tropical storm for a second time. But while Iglesias may have stolen Frank (1992)'s 8th storm ribbon, he did not harm land in the process.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:05, July 22, 2015 (UTC)

Ryan Grand is back:

EPac: CPac: There you go. Ryan1000 20:39, July 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Andres - 0% - Became pretty strong for such an early-season storm, but it caused no direct damage on land, so it won't be retired.
 * Blanca - 3% - Earliest 2nd (major) hurricane of any EPac season on record, and also the earliest Baja California landfall as well, but overall damage wasn't too severe; if anything the rainfall from it's remnants helped ease up California's drought a little.
 * Carlos - 5% - Slightly worse than Blanca, and Mexico was fortunate Carlos didn't get past category 1 strength as it neared the coastline, but this was no Manuel. It was modest at most, and will be coming back again in 2021.
 * Dolores - 0% - Slightly weaker than Andres, and als a bit farther east, but overall impacts from surf were minor at most.
 * Enrique - 0% - Fail, but at least he didn't fail as bad as Failicia.
 * Failicia - Pun% - << See the name.
 * Guillermo - 0% - Steered well clear of Hawaii, with no known damage or deaths.
 * Hilda - 0% - Did nothing notable to Hawaii, but it was still nice to see it become the first hurricane hilda ever.
 * Ignacio - ?? - Still active.
 * Jimena - ?? - Still active.
 * Ela - 0% - Nice early start for the CPac, but nothing to speak of regarding impacts.
 * Halola - 2% - Caused 1.2 million in crop damage to southern Japan with no deaths. It was a modest storm at most, and it likely won't be retired.
 * Iune - 0% - See Ela.
 * Kilo - <2% - Still active, but probably won't affect land at this point.
 * Loke - 0% - Didn't affect land, but damn, 5 CPac named storms in one season. That's a new record.