Forum:2017 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I know it's kind of late to make this, but most models indicate that there's a 50%+ chance El Nino will reappear by the end of this year. It's possible, in fact likely, that the streak of above-normal seasons will continue for the fourth year in a row. I'm not expecting something like 2015 again, but I'm hoping this year will be more active than last year, because those random dead stretches (especially in May, June and October) were rather annoying. This year has lots of potential, and I fervently hope it doesn't go to waste. ~ KN2731 {talk} 11:13, May 5, 2017 (UTC)

August
It's already August according to UTC so, why not start it? I'm expecting more activity during this month. Hi!-70.190.5.175 01:13, August 1, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico (again)
Yellow crayon is scribbled south of Mexico again. 5 day outlook is 0/30 and this seems much more likely to eventually be Jova than the above AOI. ~   Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:28, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * I may have confused the above dead AOI with this one. Hopefully this can become our next major. ~ KN2731  {talk}  07:43, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now up to 0/40, is this Jova? 3 years of my tracking...-70.190.5.175 17:31, July 30, 2017 (UTC)


 * Still 0/40, but models have recently trended much weaker. Hopefully they are wrong. ~ Raindrop  (Rain rules!) 20:10, July 30, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now to 10/40. 3 years of my tracking... -70.190.5.175 03:31, July 31, 2017 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Invest'd and 20/40. The TWO is now mentioning that upper-level winds might become unfavorable by Friday. Hopefully this won't steal the name "Jova"... ~   Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:32, August 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now at 20/50. Conditions still look conducive enough for Jova to develop. ~  Steve    Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:06, August 1, 2017 (UTC)


 * The 2-day chance was raised to 30%, while the 5-day chance is still 50%. We could get Jova from this, but it's not a certainty. It all depends on if this invest feels like developing or not. :P ~ Raindrop (Rain rules!) 02:26, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now at 30/40. Hi!-70.190.5.175 06:03, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Now down to 20/30. I doubt that this one will form. Hi!-70.190.5.175 16:23, August 2, 2017 (UTC)
 * Meh, there is still a chance that this could rapidly develop last-minute and be a brief TD or even a name-stealing spin-up, but that's not very likely. This has very limited time to get itself together before Friday. It seems to me that the EPac is taking a break. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:57, August 2, 2017 (UTC)


 * Guess this won't be a TD after all. Down to 20/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:17, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * It is up to 40/40. Hi!-68.106.0.77 19:22, August 3, 2017 (UTC)
 * And suddenly it went up. I hope this will form, anyway. May this become a TD though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:19, August 3, 2017 (UTC)


 * It's now 50/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:47, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * I expect a TD and nothing more. Heck, this might even bust completely. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:57, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * 60/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:38, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * 80/80. Can be a TD in the next advisory. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:10, August 4, 2017 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Recently numbered, TD 11-E is not expected to be a TS due to cooler waters. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:06, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * It actually strengthened a bit to 30 knots (35 mph) but I still doubt it will be a TS. If it does, it would be a pathetic name-stealer that is worse than Failicia 2015. Models thankfully don't strengthen it to a TS according to the NHC discussion. I am glad to see it become a TD though. :) ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  23:25, August 4, 2017 (UTC)
 * I hope this steals the name Jova and is only a TS for six hours. >:) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:31, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * I would be pissed if this steals the name Jova. I have been waiting  for this name since 2011 when it was a major and it has always been used for hurricanes. 181.210.62.178 23:58, August 4, 2017 (UTC)


 * Don't worry, this won't be Jova. NHC expects this to become a remnant low later. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:58, August 5, 2017 (UTC)


 * This is quickly dying off. The storm that could be Jova, however, make it a very strong storm, but it's 11+ days out. Usually, those are not accurate past 10 days. T  G  2 0 1 7 12:03, August 5, 2017 (UTC)
 * TD 11-E is forecasted to be a remnant low shortly after. Hi!-68.106.0.77 16:07, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E
Downgraded into a remnant low. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:12, August 5, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest of Mexico
A new AOI popped up in EPac. Currently 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:32, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * This could be Jova in the very long run, although the environment might not be particularly supportive. The NHC mentions that any development should be slow to occur. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:58, August 7, 2017 (UTC)


 * This will probably be Jova, only a very weak one at that. T  G  2 0 1 7 20:47, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Down to 0/10. Hi!-68.106.0.77 23:37, August 7, 2017 (UTC)
 * Conditions won't favor any development here, and Jova will have to wait. The EPac is sleeping for now but it should wake up again by mid-month. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:02, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Off the 2-day TWO. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:16, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * It's still on the 5-day TWO. Doubt this will form though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:34, August 8, 2017 (UTC)
 * Per Steve's update: this AOI is gone. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 21:04, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: Remnants of Franklin
It is on 0/30. Doubt this would form too. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * Still 0/30. Franklin's [future] remnants are expected to help this AOI organize (if it really does) this weekend. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:31, August 9, 2017 (UTC)
 * I noticed these are completely different systems (compare: 1 and 2, which is just one outlook apart). Can a disturbance really move northward that quickly? Anyway, this seems to have a pretty decent chance of (re)development in the long run. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  21:01, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Here we go again. Another one just appeared only on the 5 day TWO with a 0/20 chance of formation. Hi!-68.106.0.77 01:57, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * Now up to 0/30. Hi!-68.106.0.77 14:35, August 9, 2017 (UTC)


 * 0/40. The (slow?) race for Jova is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:29, August 9, 2017 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
I know it may be slightly early to start this section, as we have yet to witness a truly devastating storm in the EPAC. However, four named storms have already formed in the Eastern Pacific, and for me, that justifies starting this section.

Here are my predictions:

Eastern Pacific:


 * 1) Adrian - 0% - With all due respect, Adrian was the earliest named storm in the EPAC proper on record. However, for a storm that was forecast to become a Category 2, Adrian was a huge disappointment, and not hitting land does not help its case, either.
 * 2) Beatriz - 3% - Similar to 2011, Beatriz has the highest probability of leaving the list thus far. Although there have been reports of landslides and other impacts, most of them were localized in Oaxaca and failed to affect the well-being of Mexico as a whole. Moreover, the seven reported fatalities is not negligible, but Mexico has suffered far deadlier named tropical systems and not asked for retirements.
 * 3) Calvin - 1% - For such a weak storm, Calvin added on to Beatriz's damage in Oaxaca, and combined, they caused MEX$70 million (US$3.9 million) around Oaxaca. Nevertheless, it does not appear that Calvin itself resulted in any fatalities or any other major impacts, and I have yet to hear any outrageous impact reports from Mexico.
 * 4) Dora - 0.5% - Dora's rainbands did cause some flash flooding in Guerrero, Mexico that affected several homes. Once again, though, the lack of fatalities and any other significant reported effects prevents me from assigning a higher percentage.
 * 5) Eugene - 1% - Eugene defied the odds and became a major hurricane, albeit for a short timeframe. There was some heavy surf in Baja California and Southern California, and this caused hundreds of rescues. Fortunately, there were no fatalities reported, and damage should be minor at most.
 * 6) Fernanda - ~0% - Fernanda became a powerful major hurricane and the strongest of the year so far. Moreover, it managed to survive into the CPAC. However, the only impact from this hurricane whatsoever was some surf in Hawaii, and that was likely not memorable for them.
 * 7) Greg - TBA - Still Active
 * 8) Hilary - TBA - Still Active
 * 9) Irwin - TBA - Still Active

Central Pacific: (TBA)

Also, please note that I will not do the colors and grades that Steve and some of you other users do, but please feel free to include them in your predictions. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:21, June 30, 2017 (UTC) (last updated 19:53, July 23, 2017 (UTC))

Steve's Retirements
Alrighty. I will do mine

(Retirement colors: -∞% , 0%, 0.01% , 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#0A4">10% , <font color="#0C2">15% , <font color="#0F0">20% , <font color="#2F0">25% , <font color="#4F0">30% , <font color="#6F0">35% , <font color="#9F0">40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">55% , <font color="#F90">60% , <font color="#F60">65% , <font color="#F40">70% , <font color="#F20">75% , <font color="#F00">80% , <font color="#C02">85% , <font color="#A04">90% , <font color="#806">95% , <font color="#505">99% , <font color="#303">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS, <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 ) (Grade colors: '''<font color="#006">A+++(x∞), <font color="#00A">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#03B">A , <font color="#068">A- , <font color="#086">B+ , <font color="#0B3">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#8F0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FB0">C- , <font color="#F80">D+ , <font color="#F50">D , <font color="#F20">D- , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#600">Z--(x∞) ) '''

Notes:
 * A+++(x∞) and Z--(x∞) is "A+ (times infinity)" and "Z- (times infinity)" respectively, referring to the + and - signs going on infinitely. These are very strict ratings used for either the best possible win storms (like a major hurricane during the winter or in an unusual place, extremely powerful storms that reach an intensity never expected like Patricia, or storms that strengthen WAY past predictions (like a storm originally expected to be a C1 but strengthens to a C5)) or the worst possible failures (like a 40 mph/<1005 mbar TS that lasts less than a day and only spins fish, or a storm that stays weaker than 50 mph but was originally expected to become at least a hurricane).
 * Since the grading goes down the alphabet, "Z" would be best for the worst fails ever (instead of F--(x∞)).
 * The retirement chance "-∞%" is only used for fail fishspinners that received a grade of F- or lower, since it's way too obvious that they won't be retired.
 * Damage and deaths affect a storm's grade. The more destructive/deadly a TC is, the more the grade will drop from its original intended grade. It can drop down by as much as a whole 2 letters (ex. from A to C) if it is like Katrina, Sandy, etc.

Retirement predictions and grades begin here:


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#F20">D- - A weak failure and a fishspinner, but saved from getting an "F" or lower by the fact that it was the earliest named storm ever in the EPac zone.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#0A4">10%, <font color="#F00">F - Another weakling, but caused 7 deaths as well as minor damage. Don't expect more than a very small probability for the retirement of this name.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#068">2.5%, <font color="#A00">F- - Even weaker than the above two storms (this was 40 mph vs. 45 for the others). Retirement is about out of the question, as this was less destructive than Beatriz and caused no deaths. This would be Z--(x∞) had it not done something.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#02C">0.01%, <font color="#8F0">C+ - Very minimal damage from floods, otherwise it was just a fishspinner. Somewhat exceeded expectations in terms of intensity but never made C2.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#068">A- - Fishspinner that barely made major hurricane status, but tried its best.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#03B">A - An amazing hurricane that got pretty strong and lasted 10 days. The grade is prevented from being "A+" or higher due to the fact that it had potential for C5 strength, but failed to reach it due to the ERCs it did.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#F00">F - Despite continued forecasts for hurricane intensity, it failed to become one throughout its over a week of existing.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : <font color="#0C2">15%, <font color="#0B3">B - Didn't become a major despite predictions to do so, although it was quite resilient in the end, thus improving the grade from what it otherwise would have been. Slight but very small retirement chance due in part to the name's relationship to 2016 presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. However, she is much less notable than Donald Trump (Don in the Atlantic has a higher retirement chance as a result) due to Hillary not being the current U.S. president.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : <font color="#00F">0%, <font color="#0B3">B - A weak fishspinning hurricane that was quite resilient.

Any named storms that are currently active will be added here when the storm(s) dissipate.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:02, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

My Prediction of Retirements
<p style="font-weight:normal;">I'll do mine right now.

<p style="font-weight:normal;">50% or more: Italics Ok, here we go: <p style="font-weight:normal;">That's all for now folks! Hi!-70.190.5.175 05:26, July 13, 2017 (UTC)

TG's Retirements
(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#889">0.01% , <font color="#669">1% , <font color="#449">5% , 10% , <font color="#049">15% , 20% , <font color="#094">25% , 30% , <font color="#390">35% , 40% , <font color="#CF0">45% , 50% , <font color="#FE0">55% , <font color="#FD0">60% , <font color="#FC0">65% , 70% , <font color="#F70">75% , 80% , <font color="#F20">85% , 90% , <font color="#C00">95% , <font color="#900">99% , <font color="#500">100%  ) (Category colors: <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 )


 * <font color="#00faf4">Adrian : 0% - Does get credit for being the earliest EPac storm on record. Multiple forecasts predicted Adrian to become a hurricane, and it didn't even become a 50 mph tropical storm.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Beatriz : <font color="#669">1% - When it comes to retirement, Beatriz doesn't even come close to the snubs. I wouldn't even give this more than a 1% chance of retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Calvin : <font color="#889">0.01% - Calvin almost fizzled out before landfall, but there was minimal damage. This will be coming back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Dora : <font color="#889">0.01% - Dora caused some minor damage. Dora didn't impress me, but that's just my opinion.
 * <font color="#ffc140">Eugene : 0% - Eugene defied forecasts, and became a major hurricane...barely. I feel like Eugene could've done better. Eugene stayed out in the open waters, so he will be back in 2023.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Fernanda : <font color="#889">0.01% - The remnants of Fernanda struck Hawaii, and that doesn't count as much.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Greg : 0% - Failicia 2.0.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hilary : 50% - Hilary was forecast to become a major multiple times, and it never did. However, with political issues, Hilary could be retired this coming spring. It is more likely to happen to Hilary because the EPac is the only one who gives the Adolph/Israel/Isis treatment. I think that this and Don could be retired.
 * <font color="#ffffcc">Irwin : 0% - Out in the ocean. I doubt this will go.

Raindrop's Retirements
Adrian: 0%, grade <font color="#F50">D - Extra credit for becoming the earliest tropical storm in the EPAC proper, minus three letter grades for being dissipated when it was forecast to be a 100 mph storm. Seriously, what was that?

Beatriz: <font color="#889">0.03%, grade <font color="#F00">F - A weak TS that made landfall in Mexico. It will be back in 2023 since Mexico has never retired a storm that has done such little damage. It doesn't get a Z as it still formed relatively early and caused impacts.

Calvin: Whatever the chance of winning the lottery is%, grade <font color="#A00">F- - It formed. It hit land. It died. It did not do much. It failed. It does not get a Z as it caused impacts.

Dora: 0%, grade <font color="#8F0">C+ - Just an average hurricane that formed, strengthened, peaked, weakened, and died. It did look pretty good at peak intensity. It gets a slightly better grade than an average "C" grade because it was the first hurricane of the season. It caused no impacts of significance.

Eugene: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - A fishspinner that did make major status, barely. Therefore it gets an A, barely. Besides the fact that it strengthened more than expected, Eugene followed a rather straightforward path from formation to dissipation, which does not help its grade. No impacts = no retirement.

Fernanda: 0%, grade <font color="#00F">A+ - Fernanda was an amazing and beautiful storm that did not hit land. Its sudden RI to category 4 status was quite cool, and although it did not reach category 5 status, it gets an A plus due to its rather long lifespan and slight resilience when it was weakening.

Greg: 0%, grade <font color="#F80">D+ - Greg ended up underperforming forecasts in the end, but did have some interesting aspects to its life. (Most notably when it went from looking like it was going to strengthen to having an exposed center :P) Greg did briefly hit 60 mph before that, and that along with its long life give it an ok grade.

Hilary: 10%, grade <font color="#0B3">B - Hilary fell short of expectations, just like in the election, by not becoming a major when it was forecasted to for a long time. It still became a decent hurricane, and its brief restrengthening when it was over cold waters brings up its grade quite a bit. It gets a significant but small shot at retirement due to the name's relation to the presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

Irwin: 0%, grade <font color="#068">A- - Irwin was originally slow to strengthen, getting named while still having an exposed center. During its pretty long life, Irwin would always find a way to do just a little more than forecasts predicted, by strengthening to 90 mph and then near the end of its life refusing to die. The only time Irwin was not resilient was during its sudden rapid weakening from 90 to 50 mph in under 24 hours. The fact that Irwin was resilient in the end makes up for that. I give Irwin an A- as it was a lot of fun to track and looked quite pretty at times.

Retirement Predictions: A2.0

 * Adrian - 0.05% - that .05% is for Adrian being the earliest forming storm in the Eastern Pacific proper (excl. Central Pacific)
 * Beatriz - 4% - minimal impact, though there were a number of fatalities.
 * Calvin & Dora - 0% - see you both in 2023.
 * Eugene - 1.5% - for being the first major of the season. Will be back in 2023.
 * Fernanda - 2.5% - for being the first Category 4 hurricane of the season; also expected to be back in 2023.
 * Greg & Irwin - 2% - although weaker than Eugene and Fernanda, they were fun to track because of their relatively long lives. Both will be back in 2023 though.
 * Hilary - 3% - If we will only consider its actual impact(s), Hilary will be back in 2023. However, I am not sure if that will happen, given the political situation right now. While it may not get retired, but this may be removed (due to the name being very similary to Hillary Clinton, with the exception of its spelling of course). May become Adolph/Israel/Isis 4.0 (along with Don in the Atlantic).

More to follow.

Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:26, August 4, 2017 (UTC)