Forum:2009 Atlantic hurricane season/September

September
A new month is upon us.Will that patch of storms between Cape Verde and Africa noted in the new TWO amount to anything?--L.E./12.144.5.2 16:40, September 1, 2009 (UTC)


 * Hello?! Is anyone paying attention to the seemingly imminent tropical depression near the Lesser Antilles? Or are we going to ignore that and worry about a curious wave that's probably five days or more from doing anything? -- SkyFury 19:14, September 1, 2009 (UTC)


 * Erika is the last INVEST of August.The new patch is the first development originating in September.--L.E./12.144.5.2 04:37, September 2, 2009 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Wave near Cape Verde is up on NRL as 95L, NHC's got it at medium chance of development. --Patteroast 18:10, September 4, 2009 (UTC)
 * Not showing up on NRL or NHC anymore. --Patteroast 01:02, September 7, 2009 (UTC)

96L.Invest
New wave off Africa, NHC's got it at a medium chance of development. --Patteroast 01:02, September 7, 2009 (UTC)
 * Up to high risk on NHC now. --Patteroast 08:14, September 7, 2009 (UTC)
 * Conditions look good in the near term, but the long term looks dicey. If it moves almost due west, it's got a chance, but the models curve it northwest right into the Wall of Death (as I now call it), the large pocket of strong shear covering the Central Atlantic from about 18N, 55W to about 30N, 35W. The best (or worst) case, impossible, storybook scenario is that it moves due west and then curves ever so slightly to miss the Lesser Antilles, becomes a major hurricane in the Sargasso Sea area east of the Bahamas, hits incoming westerly shear and then hits Florida as a weakening, sheared Category 1. But most likely, it'll just be sheared into oblivion like Danny and Erika. No matter what this thing becomes, I don't think it has a bright future. However, it is worth noting that the last time September passed without a major hurricane in the Atlantic was 1994, 15 years ago. -- SkyFury 18:18, September 7, 2009 (UTC)
 * TWO says,"IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE ... ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT." Stay tuned.--L.E./12.144.5.2 19:11, September 7, 2009 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 7
Current trend did continue. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 22:51, September 7, 2009 (UTC)


 * The forecast was higher than I expected but still lower than the model consensus. I'm a little surprised at the sharpness of the forecasted recurvature. NHC brings it almost due north. -- SkyFury 00:04, September 8, 2009 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fred
Upgraded! --Patteroast 05:54, September 8, 2009 (UTC)


 * Looks good. The center is actually closer to the deep convection than previously thought. The long term shear forecast looks better than I had previously thought. Notice that the intensity forecast has shifted a bit upward from the last one. If Fred keeps up his current pace, he's got an outside chance to become a hurricane. Stay tuned. It'll be interesting to see what the storm looks like in the morning. -- SkyFury 06:43, September 8, 2009 (UTC)

Hurricane Fred
We have a hurricane gentlemen. CIMSS and Colorado State both call it "Hurricane Fred". Just waiting on the official word. Fred is not messing around. It's taking advantage of the rare spell of good conditions. It would not surprise me if Fred made Cat 2 like some of the models forecast. -- SkyFury 02:31, September 9, 2009 (UTC)


 * NHC says hurricane as well,but the forecast peaks at only 80 knots.Hardly a fit mate for Wilma,so Flintstone fans may be disappointed.--L.E./12.144.5.2 05:23, September 9, 2009 (UTC)


 * Wait, are you implying "fit mate" and "Fred Flinstone" belong in the same sentence?--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 05:40, September 9, 2009 (UTC)


 * Are you guys really this bored? I think most storms are going to fall a bit short when compared to the strongest Atlantic hurricane of all time (in terms of SLP that is). -- SkyFury 05:59, September 9, 2009 (UTC)
 * Well, it's a cat. 2 now, and could be a 3 in the next 3-6 hours. Fred has become such a strong storm so fast, I can't see it impacting land. This is exactly what happened to Hurricane Isidore in 1996. It became a major hurricane so far east that it just turned north and died out. The same will probably happen with Fred. The highest expected forecast winds are 120-125 miles per hour. 76.29.112.198 09:18, September 9, 2009 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Fred
Major hurricane: 105 kts and counting! Wow, Fred had a most pleasant evening! Nobody, not even the models saw this one coming. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index was only 21 percent at the 11pm advisory. 76, I was thinking the exact same thing! This storm does in fact remind me of Isidore. It formed in about the same area, took about the same track and had about the same results. Though Isidore never strengthened this quickly. Fred's gone from a tropical storm to a major hurricane in 18 hours...that's pretty amazing. This has been a feast or famine season reminiscent of 2007 (if not as emphatic). -- SkyFury 15:29, September 9, 2009 (UTC)
 * So,putting on strength in a hurry is one thing Fred and Wilma have in common.But Fred doesn't seem headed for Bedrock...--L.E./12.144.5.2 16:00, September 9, 2009 (UTC)
 * Surprising storm alright. But indeed, it would have to pull a fairly incredible track (not to say impossible) to hit any sort of land. And by "incredible track" I mean "pull a Vince".--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:05, September 9, 2009 (UTC)
 * Yes, I am surprised to see it strengthen so fast, but as I said, Fred will probably avoid land and die out over water. 2007's Felix intensified at a similar rate and became a category 5 only 2 days after forming. That's a record for the atlantic basin, but unlike Fred, Felix made landfall as a cat 5 and was one of only 2 storms to hit Nicaragua at that intensity, with the other being Edith in 1971 - and on top of that it was retired, which I wasn't really expecting. Fred, on the other hand, won't do f'ing jack because it is to far out there at it's kind of strength. I would be scared if this thing was threatening the U.S. at this strength, but the good news is it won't be. 76.29.112.198 23:31, September 9, 2009 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Fred

 * Well, Fred's a storm now, and it's much weaker than it was earlier. It will head toward the U.S. sometime next week, but by that time it will probrably be either a weak storm or a remnant low. 76.29.112.198 19:18, September 12, 2009 (UTC)

Remnant
Poofed like two days ago. But hey hey, orange colored in Special TWO! Storm&#39;s Eye 23:22, September 13, 2009 (UTC)
 * Still spinning around out there, although it's been down to low risk for a while, now. --Patteroast 13:10, September 18, 2009 (UTC)
 * There was a recon scheduled for Fred, but it's been canceled -Patteroast 16:16, September 19, 2009 (UTC)
 * Nevermind, it finally poofed for good a couple days ago. --Patteroast 11:52, September 23, 2009 (UTC)
 * Patteroast, it dissipated a few minutes after you said that. The remnant low was deactivated at September 20, but the low stayed there until Sep 23. 116.127.84.141 14:12, September 26, 2009 (UTC)

98L.INVEST
Wave halfway between Africa and the Caribbean that's been listed as low risk for days on NHC is now up to medium risk and NRL's listing it as an invest. What happened to 97L? I totally missed it. --Patteroast 13:10, September 18, 2009 (UTC)
 * High risk, now. --Patteroast 16:16, September 19, 2009 (UTC)
 * And... nevermind. Poof. --Patteroast 11:52, September 23, 2009 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 8
There's actually a hurricane season going on right now? Really? Totally forgot. Our new depression has found itself a nice little anticyclone to protect it from the downright sadistic mid-level shear pattern right now. It will miss that anticyclone dearly in about 24 hours. The next name is Grace (yes it is September 25. That tells you all you need to know about this season) and this thing will need a whole lot of grace, as in hail Mary, full of grace, because a prayer is about all it's got. In all my extensive research, I've never seen the oceans of our planet this calm in September. The totality of the tropical quiet is really remarkable. Even ignoring the lack of named storms, there hasn't even been many disturbances. Thunderstorm activity along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the belt of thunderstorms that most tropical cyclones originate from, has been unbelieveably quiet. Even in really dead years, there's always some activity along the ITCZ. I have never seen the world's oceans so completely devoid of precipitation, let alone storms. This inactivity would be remarkable for April, let alone September. The closest thing I can find to quiet on this scale in the satellite era is 1977. In September, 1977, just 11 storms formed worldwide (for comparison, the Atlantic had 8 by itself in 2007) and just one major hurricane (Babe in WPAC). So far this September, just 9 storms have formed and two major hurricanes (Fred and Choi-wan). I'd really like to see a combined ACE for 2009 and see how it compares to other years. I bet it's remarkable. A meteorology professor at my university has speculated that the culprit for this inactivity could be the solar minimum. In 2008, solar activity reached its lowest levels since 1913, which, lo and behold, coincided with the least active Atlantic hurricane season on record in 1914. Wow. -- SkyFury 23:19, September 25, 2009 (UTC)
 * Sky, we need a break from these storms. After what happened in 2008, 2005, 2004, and some other years, we finally got a break. I mean, even 2006 dipped out better shit than this year. I understand that it has been quiet, but after what happened in earlier years, we deserve something like this. October is just around the corner, and it isn't out of the question for us to see an Opal or a Wilma, but I personally don't see that happening. The forecast says northwest, and I don't see TD 8affecting any land. 76.235.203.200 00:20, September 26, 2009 (UTC)


 * For what it's worth, I've been running a global 2009 ACE using 1-minute winds worldwide (NHC, CPHC and JTWC only). As of 26/0300z, here are the stats. (All operational unless stated with "BT". SHEM storms are only those that have formed in 2009, not the season 2008-2009) -- RattleMan 18:57, September 26, 2009 (UTC)

Global 2009 ACE ATL	39.9775	12.28% EPAC	75.6675	23.24% CPAC	12.135	3.73% WPAC	108.31	33.27% NIO	4.34	1.33% SWIO	38.11	11.71% AUS	39.48	12.13% SPAC	7.515	2.31% TOTAL	325.535 NHEM	240.43	73.86% SHEM	85.105	26.14%

West Pacific Seasonal ACE Kujira	12.0925	41.36% Chan-hom	6.3575	21.74% Linfa	4.7425	16.22% Nangka	2.2975	7.86% Soudelor	0.1225	0.42% Molave	3.38	11.56% Goni	1.0925	2.81% Morakot	8.59	21.53% Etau	1.225	1.79% Maka	0.9325	1.36% Vamco	23.12	33.84% Krovanh	4.2525	5.90% Dujuan	3.9125	5.40% Choi-wan	33.9725	31.44% Koppu	1.975	1.82% Ketsana	0.245	0.23% TOTAL	108.31

East Pacific Seasonal ACE BT	Andres	3.305	4.36% Blanca	1.13	1.49% Carlos	8.92	11.76% Dolores	0.81	1.07% BT	Enrique	2.475	3.26% Felicia	15.2525	20.10% Guillermo	9.7275	12.82% Hilda	0.405	0.53% Ignacio	1.4975	1.97% Jimena	23.0325	30.36% BT	Kevin	0.97	1.28% Linda	5.27	6.95% Marty	1.5725	2.07% Nora	1.3	1.71% TOTAL	75.668

Central Pacific Seasonal ACE Lana	2.7475	40.52% Felicia	3.7875	55.86% Maka	0.245	2.72% Guillermo	2.2425	18.48% Hilda	3.1125	25.65% TOTAL	12.135

South Pacific Seasonal ACE Hettie	0.245	5.09% Innis	0.65	13.50% Joni	2.775	57.63% Ken	2.7	0.00% Lin	1.145	23.78% TOTAL	7.515

North Indian Seasonal ACE Bijli	2.38	28.22% Aila	1.8375	21.17% 03B	0.1225	1.41% TOTAL	4.34

Southwest Indian Seasonal ACE Dongo	2.08	5.46% Eric	1.47	3.86% Fanele	5.7275	15.03% Gael	18.5125	48.58% Hina	2.5475	6.68% 19S	0.1225	0.32% Izilda	2.5225	6.62% Jade	5.1275	13.45% TOTAL	38.11

Australian Seasonal ACE Charlotte	0.3675	0.93% Dominic	0.735	1.86% Ellie	0.6875	1.74% Freddy	2.1775	5.52% Gabrielle	0.735	1.86% Hamish	21.5	54.46% Ilsa	11.9025	30.15% Jasper	0.97	2.46% Kirrily	0.405	1.03% TOTAL	39.48

Atlantic Seasonal ACE Ana	0.735	3.94% Bill	25.76	95.33% Claudette	0.5275	1.83% Danny	1.875	6.22% Erika	1.2675	3.17% Fred	9.8125	24.55% TOTAL	39.9775

According to your table, we're at 325.5 now worldwide. It'll be interesting to see how it will compare to other years. In terms of the number of storms, I think we're actually about where we were at this point last year. That was probably help by the fact that the Eastern Pacific had just two weak tropical storms last September in its deadest September ever. -- SkyFury 02:27, September 27, 2009 (UTC)
 * By the way... TD Eight has dissipated. --Patteroast 04:44, September 27, 2009 (UTC)


 * For the record, Hurricane Fred's date of dissipation, September 12, would be the earliest end to an Atlantic hurricane season EVER. The one known storm in 1914 dissipated on September 19. 1983 was the earliest since 1950 (I think) when Dean dissipated on September 30. That's just to give you guys some historical perspective. Even with this incredible stat, it's hard for me to believe that the Atlantic has a Grace in it for us. The atmosphere has just become so hostile. TD Eight never even got a chance to do anything before it got ripped apart. -- SkyFury 13:37, September 30, 2009 (UTC)