Forum:2013 Pacific hurricane season

Future start
Starting this early.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:17, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions = 19 21 named storms, 12 13 hurricanes, 6 major hurricanes. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:57, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

list would prob get up to lorena being a winter storm in hawaii :D 188.223.248.201 20:24, October 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 13-10-8. Outlook looking better and better. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:04, April 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * Season starting in a couple days :D -- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:15, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * 10 days till season starts. Isaac829 E-Mail  05:28, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

Still thinking 14-18 storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 3-5 majors, and 100 to 120% of median ACE values. Pretty average season overall. Ryan1000 16:13, May 5, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cost Rica
System flared up over the far eastern edge of the Pacific Ocean this morning and is now a peculiar and interest blob of thunderstorm activity south of Costa Rica. Latest analysis from the Ocean Prediction Center say that this is a 1008 mbar low-pressure system embedded in the ITCZ. Our first AOI in the EPAC this year. Bears watching.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 20:57, May 12, 2013 (UTC)

I was just coming to the Wiki to tell everyone that too. Haha, It seems that we might have an early riser this season, possibly before the season even starts. This AOI looks particularly interesting to me, as of 7:20 p.m. MDT, I looked at a moving satellite picture on the NHC website. The system is beginning to show some slight rotation and thunderstorm convection looks to be somewhat healthy. Could this become Alvin? Or at least TD 1? We'll have to see. STO12 (talk) 01:20, May 13, 2013 (UTC)

Currently, this system is not on the GTWO, but I will not be surprised if the NHC issues a special one soon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:09, May 13, 2013 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
I'm currently not expecting much out of this one, but the next few weeks are going to be quite interesting. Several models see quite a bit of action in the next several days as a powerful MJO pulse comes into the Atlantic and EPac by about May 22nd. By then the CMS sees at least 2 or 3, and possibly even 4, storms developing in the EPac, though heading out to sea. The 06Z GFS is consistent with developing an area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean by that time and that could possibly become Andrea. Of course, this is 200 or more hours into the future and the uncertainty is quite high at that point in time, but the next few weeks will bear watching nontheless. I think it's time to wake up from our NHem slumber. There also might have been a subtropical storm in the Atlantic north of the Lesser Antillies the past few days, but NHC never issued any special advisory on that. Might be discovered post-season, if it isn't operationally. Ryan1000 18:52, May 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * The models are in love with this system, most take it up to a hurricane in a few days time, but I think that's a bit bullish for this time of year. Regarding that "sub-tropical storm" we had a few days ago, it was interesting, but it was sort lived and probably will not be added at the end of this year. I found the track I made on several different weather blogs which was cool, but on the other hand felt like they forced a storm out of that low. Going to be tracking more potent systems in the upcoming months. This year is definitely going to be much more interesting than what we have had the last few years. Supportstorm (talk) 23:06, May 13, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's possible this could become a hurricane, but yeah, that's pretty agressive for a storm this early on. Alma of 1990 remains the earliest hurricane on record to form in the East Pacific proper since the sattelite era began, becoming a cat 1 on the day the season begun, May 15 (though Ekeka of 1992 is undoubtedly the earliest one known to form east of the dateline itself). I have doubts this will do it though. And knowing this year will be ENSO-neutral, we could see anything from a  re-2005 (hopefully not) to a re-2000 or 2008. 2013 will definitely be interesting to watch. Ryan1000 23:18, May 13, 2013 (UTC)