Forum:2012 Atlantic hurricane season

Hall of Fame 2012
Elections have begun! Ryan1000 15:09, February 24, 2012 (UTC)

Future start
Well, I felt like making this forum for the future 2012 season(Yes, it is July 1st, 2011), and I have every other forum made too. The Atlantic hurricane season's betting pools are Here, the Pacific hurricane season's betting pools are Here, and I think we will have a 9-14 storm season, a 4-6 hurricane season, and 2-3 major hurricane season in 2012, possibly from an El Nino event. Ryan1000 03:11, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow you started this early. I'll post my predictions when the 2011 hurricane season ends. Though I guess I'll make some of my bets now and change them as the year gets closer. Yqt1001 03:30, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I wanted to begin it primarily for the SHem, but this season will also be a future class one. I'm thinking we will have a pretty silent year in the Atlantic in 2012; I think this because we have a neutral start as of now, but we will continue to have conditions slowly change to El Nino like 2009, which will slowly hinder activity in the Atlantic and strengthen the Pacific. The SHem will also likely have a pretty good year, particularly the SPac and somewhat the Australian region. Ryan1000 03:46, July 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'll make my predictions nearer the time as well, when we know more about what sort of season we are in for. We are likely to have El Nino conditions at some point during this year, though. HurricaneFiona 09:26, July 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not sure about that. We will likely have one in 2013, but in 2012, we are actually likely to see a revive of La Nina or stay neutral. I also have been thinking of making betting pools worldwide in this year, but we are still in 2011. I made the SHem betting pools at least... Ryan1000 17:55, July 13, 2011 (UTC
 * We may get a weak La Nina return this season, but I think we're staying neutral. I'm going with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 majors. OWEN2011 16:24, July 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I made my newest blog post for what I think we will see in 2012. Anyone who wants to see it may view it here. Ryan1000 18:38, December 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here are my predictions for 2012: 20 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * I really would want to reach William next year but it depends my forecast for now will be 16 names storms 7-9 hurricanes and 5-6 majorsAllanjeffs 22:22, December 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update: Because there is a more likely chance of El Nino/ENSO, I have revised my forecast to 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Andrew444  Talk  Blog  Contributions  03:05, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Really??? I read that was going to be a neutral year 2012 but we will seeAllanjeffs 23:52, December 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * La Nina returned to us in September of 2011, and it could persist until June or July 2012. Even if we do turn to El Nino at some point in 2012, I don't think it will happen in spring, but rather Autumn, so the activity could still be above average per my blog post predictions. Ryan1000 15:38, December 17, 2011 (UTC)

And 2012 has officially begun! Anyone besides me and Andrew have predictions for this year? Ryan1000 01:21, January 1, 2012 (UTC)

I already put my prediction look a little up and you`ll see Allanjeffs 17:43, January 3, 2012 (UTC)

Eh, okay, anyone who hasn't made any calls yet have predictions for 2012? Ryan1000 04:39, January 4, 2012 (UTC)

Have all of you note that when we have a El Nino we always end with 9 or 7 name storms no more no less Allanjeffs 02:20, January 8, 2012 (UTC)

Actually, it's expected to be neutral in 2012. I don't expect El Nino until next year. I'm surprised how conservative the're being for 2012 when we're expected to be neutral. Even if we do transition to El Nino this year, we won't really see the changes until next year. Ryan1000 12:39, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * One worrying factor to me is that there is mostly heat just remaining in the Caribbean and the GoM, the CATL is pretty cold. There could be a few more worrying storms this year than say 2011 in the Caribbean and GoM. Yqt1001 15:00, January 8, 2012 (UTC)
 * That doesn't mean 2012 will be bad for us. Wind shear is also another factor; last year I thought 2011 would be bad for us but instead of potentially getting a 2005, we got a repeat of 2010 impact-wise. 2012 could do the same thing (which is still bad), but we can't assure this year will be a bad one. I personally think this is our lucky naming list. Only 3 names have ever changed from it since 1979. =) On the other hand, next year's naming list has featured a retiree every time it was used before... Ryan1000 04:16, January 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe this year the list would retire some names because when this season start something always happen and it end with just 7-9 name storms maybe this year would be an exceptionAllanjeffs 20:45, January 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Never know... The naming list of last year only had 2 retirees before 2005, and after that year alone, there were 7 names off that list. I don't know whether or not we will have a bad season, but since 2005, the tropics haven't settled down in ATL. We've had devastating years ever since except in 2006 and 2009. The pre-season forecasts for 2005 looked just like this and the next thing they know we get the most active year ever in ATL. I'll wait until later to see what 2012 has in store for us. Ryan1000 01:29, January 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * People have you all look at the models they are developind STS Albert in the coming days if this trully happens we could our fisrt name storm in February since a long time.Allanjeffs 12:58, February 2, 2012 (UTC)
 * There is some hefty shear aloft in the Gulf of Mexico right now, but if it settles enough to see Alberto it would be the first storm to develop in the Atlantic Basin in February in 60 years. The 1952 Groundhog Day Tropical Storm (which occured 60 years ago on this day) was the last such storm. It hit southern Florida as a 40 mph storm, causing only minimal damage. Alberto, if it forms, likely won't become much in terms of strength. I'd think a TS (or STS) peak of 65 mph, possibly 70 mph, at max from that storm in the GOM. Ryan1000 14:33, February 2, 2012 (UTC)

It's May now and I've got caught into the pre-hurricane season hype so here are my totals. I'll update my final betting pool ideas today as well. El-Nino seems likely for peak season so I don't expect many storms, but conditions seem better than last year as far as stronger Caribbean and GoM storms go. We'll see what happens but nonetheless here are my predictions: 11-13, 7-8, 2-3 Yqt1001 18:45, May 6, 2012 (UTC)

1st CSU Forecast
Here it is! Andrew444 Talk  Blog  Contributions  23:16, December 8, 2011 (UTC)

I'm very surprised as to how conservative WSI and TSR are for 2012... They said the La Nina is rapidly collapsing and we should get a neutral season, but we won't get El Nino until late 2012 or 2013. But still, 14-7-3? And 12-7-3? That seems like bustcasting to me. I don't think 2012 will be a slow season at all. I still think it will be an active, above average season for the Atlantic and near-normal for everywhere else. More or less, 2012 reminds me of 2008 or 2003, but not 2009 by any means. Ryan1000 19:40, December 25, 2011 (UTC)

2nd CSU Forecast
It's out. Currently they forecast a near-normal to below-normal season with only 10 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 maors. Maybe my blog post prediction might not be so accurate after all. Still, we have a chance to see a major hurricane landfall, and after not seeing one for 4 years, one could say we're due now. Ryan1000 15:34, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

Damned forum...Deleted my last post. Reposted it, and yeah, we're looking at a 2009 more than a 2008 now. Ryan1000 20:00, April 5, 2012 (UTC)

A link is here. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:20, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

Another thing that should be noted is there is a slight modification NHC made to the Saffir-Simpson Scale for this hurricane season. They said from now on a category 3 is from 111-129 mph, a category 4 is from 130-156 mph, and a category 5 is 157 mph or higher. Nothing else is new. Ryan1000 21:42, April 8, 2012 (UTC)

They better retire Irene this week if not I would really be piss.Allanjeffs 20:44, April 10, 2012 (UTC)

There's not much else to talk about (retirements part 3 is on the 2011 ATL forum), but the main reason I think it's certain now is because the damage was rescently upped to 18.7 billion, per the NHC's updated TCR yesterday. I never expected it to go up that much, and if that didn't happen, there would have been a chance it wouldn't be retired. Now there's pretty much no chance Irene won't be retired. Irene's getting the boot, one way or another. It could be announced this Thursday or Friday, when the meeings are really under way, or, like they usually are, the WMO could be sluggish to releasing their reports to the press and might not do it until several days after the meeting, like they did last year. The tropics are taking a nap for some time until then. Lee and Jova are also potential players, but Irene is the only one you can really look forward to being retired. Ryan1000 20:01, April 11, 2012 (UTC)

Now the 2nd TSR forecast is out. 12.5 tropical storms, 5.6 hurricanes, 2.6 major hurricanes, and a ACE index of 95 are predicted. Look here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:10, April 12, 2012 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
After an investless July we have 2 in one day. No model really shows development of this, but it's heading over the fuel that is the GoM in a favourable environment so it might be able to pull development. Yqt1001 (talk) 17:38, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Thank god. The drought-stricken southern states over there could use a good soaking from this. And investless July Yqt? At least there was invest 98L from late July of this year (which has a descent chance to be upgraded post-season, see above), so we haven't really been that quiet since our record start. Oh and BTW, 20%. Ryan1000 18:07, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Indeed, but I really hope this thing doesn't rain on my beach vacation down on the Georgia coast next week. This one kind of reminds me of Jerry in 1995. The BAMs take it into the GOM, but I think it'll move over Florida and recurve like Jerry did, probably dissipating over southern Georgia. And, like Jerry, it could reach minimal tropical storm strength. -- SkyFury 19:00, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Wow, this storm is developing a touch faster than I think. It doesn't look the part, but, wow, it wants to be a TD.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:15, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * We've been getting rather active, but at least it's not like some past years. We should be going into El Nino soon, but the tropics don't look like that for now after seeing no storms in July, we could have 3 before the first week of August is over. Amazing. Ryan1000 20:48, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * down to 10%Allanjeffs 12:04, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Wave off of Africa
GFS likes this one. NHC has given it 10% this morning. Yqt1001 (talk) 05:58, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

This could be a threat in the long run, but Ernesto ^ is probrably going to be the bigger story over the next week. Ryan1000 12:00, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Whoa, woah, woah! Just after I posted my above post, this thing jumped up to 30%. And...Invested? Ryan1000 12:05, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Is this our next depression of the year? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:54, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

Probable.Allanjeffs 13:27, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

What intensities are the computer models forecasting? 65.34.84.50 13:40, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
I was looking at this for a while, I knew the NHC was going to poke at it. Anyways, on that note, the models are looking at a 55 to 65 kt peak within 120 hours.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:04, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes Florence, but as I said earlier, Ernesto's going to be a bigger threat over the next week. By the time he makes landfall, this should be our next big storm. Ryan1000 14:12, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

the next wave leaving Africa is the one that we need t be concern as the gfs is prediction that Gordon if this becomes Florence to be a threat to Florida.Allanjeffs 15:59, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

50%...Florence is coming... Ryan1000 18:25, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Looks that way, assuming 91L doesn't beat it to the punch. The models are pretty widely split on the intensity forecast, but it wouldn't surprise me if we see another hurricane out of this. I don't think it will threaten the US though. The only land I think it'll pose a threat to is Bermuda. But boy the tropics are getting interesting. I love this time of year! -- SkyFury 19:08, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * Yep... 90L is getting very organized. I actually won't be surprised if this is upgraded to a tropical depression very soon.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 19:14, August 3, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, Canada also isn't out of the question, as was the case with Igor 2 years ago. But then again, I wouldn't count on it. Usually storms like this don't reach the U.S. when they form this far east. A few notable exceptions include Hugo, Georges, and most notably, Ivan. Ryan1000 20:48, August 3, 2012 (UTC)


 * 90L up to 70%... likely TD on the next shot.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 00:26, August 4, 2012 (UTC)
 * Have you see the Gfs if this become Florence and 91L Gordon the gfs show three other storm forming near Cape verde Island this month will be epic if it verifies.Allanjeffs 01:08, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Six
Up on ATCF, 6th TD of the year and likely to become Florence! Yqt1001 (talk) 00:54, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Our first td near the cape verde islands has form.Allanjeffs 02:02, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Oh and, in case anyone is wondering, we didn't get Franklin, the "F" storm of last year, until August 12. That means, we'll be ahead of last year when this becomes named! And by more than a week too! How impressive. Amazing. Ryan1000 02:36, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

I really don't understand this forecast. NHC forecasts it to dissipate in just a few days, talking about dry air and colder water. I don't have a clue what they're talking about. I looked at both the water vapor and the SSTs and I don't see any of these negative factors. The air ahead of the storm actually looks a lot more moist than what's ahead of Ernesto. The SSTs do look slightly cooler, but it doesn't look significant enough to cause weakening. The shear isn't great, but it's expected to ease of over the next 24 hours. I find this a very puzzling forecast. -- SkyFury 03:17, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

I highly doubt it will die, but even if it does become Florence, it won't affect anyone anyways. Maybe Bermuda and Canada in the long run, but no one else. But I don't have any future vision of seeing this turn back south to the Caribbean islands as a subtropical depression anytime soon. If anythng I think it'll turn north and out to sea. What would make the NHC think it would turn south? Ryan1000 03:40, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Florence
The sixth storm of the season has come to us now we are tie with the Eastern Pacific.Allanjeffs 11:48, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. And NHC now wants to take Florence north of the lessers as a non-tropical low in the long run. I still don't see that, since environmental conditions aren't too unfavorable for additional development, but there is some stable air over the storm. And Ernesto is starting to get his act together. Maybe we could see a hurricane from him as soon as later today. His forward speed is slowing down to 18 mph, he's starting to expand, and the latest advisory on Ernesto places it at 60 mph, 1001 mbars. Ryan1000 14:37, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 50mph base on ATCF files.Allanjeffs 20:16, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">And in advisories now. Cyclone10 E-Mail  20:50, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">NHC keeps calling for Florence to disappear in a few days and it keeps strengthening. I know the shear's expected to pick up and will probably preclude Florence from becoming a hurricane but I still think NHC is drastically underestimating this system. I think at the very least it will remain a tropical system through the end of the forecast period. -- SkyFury 21:19, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I mention in wunderground yesterday that Florence might be like lisa of 2010 everyone expect Lisa to dissipate but she instead became a hurricane that is my thinking that Florence might peak at 70 or 75mph.Allanjeffs 22:09, August 4, 2012 (UTC)

I wouldn't be surprised if she does, but I don't expect her to hit land anyways. Ryan1000 13:37, August 5, 2012 (UTC)


 * This will be gone on the next advisory. Cyclone10 E-Mail  06:02, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Florence
Florence has been fairly lucky for a few decades, but this is going to be the first incarnation of Florence since 1964 not to reach hurricane strength. 35 mph, 1009 mbar. I expect her to become post-tropical later today. --HurricaneMaker99 13:16, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I wouldn't speak too soon on that, HM99. Although it may die for now, there is a possibility it could regenerate and reintensify later on. Then again, it also could pull a Gaston (2010) and not regenerate at all. Ryan1000 14:27, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Florence
Well, it's down and out for now, at least. --HurricaneMaker99 14:49, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Always could come back, but not at this moment. Ryan1000 15:12, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Can we say regeneration is possible near Bermuda? 65.34.84.50 15:50, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

I think it'll be farther south than that, but we'll have to wait and see. Ryan1000 18:06, August 6, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">...And the remnants are back on the TWO. Up to only 10% though, and not expected to develop. Ryan1000 06:19, August 7, 2012 (UTC)

Down to near 0%. Not completely gone yet, but not likely to redevelop into Florence. Ryan1000 01:20, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

they are looking better now we may see Florence regenerate later.Allanjeffs 16:15, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gone from NHC. Looks like it's not returning to us after all. Ryan1000 19:29, August 10, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Bahamas
NHC looking at the potential in this storm, 10%.  CobraStrike  ( t )( b )(c) 14:19, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Um, CobraStrike, this was the same AOI that passed by the virgins and PR a few days ago. This isn't a new AOI...Allan posted a 10% reincarnation of it above the header for 90L. Ryan1000 14:30, August 3, 2012 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
20% atm, but currently not in a favorable environment to develop. We'll wait and see. Ryan1000 01:45, August 7, 2012 (UTC)

I think that is has a really good shot at becoming Ernesto and with the Gfs predicting three more storms we could have Joyce before August start an amazing season so far.Allanjeffs 03:09, August 7, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Um, Ernesto? You mean Gordon? Well, the models don't see too much from it, like they did Florence. Ryan1000 03:15, August 7, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah sorry I mean Gordon and now is 30%Allanjeffs 00:26, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

I'm surprised that happened...92L may have gone up to medium chance, but convection has actually diminished since it was given a higher chance of development. It looked better at 20%. It must be in an environment of lower shear and dry air now. Ryan1000 01:20, August 8, 2012 (UTC)

50%Allanjeffs 01:08, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gordon will likely come from this, but unless that shear over the Caribbean settles down over the next 4 or 5 days, this won't be much more than a tropical storm. GFS takes this running straightforward through the Caribbean as a tropical storm, but keeps it much further north than Ernesto was, so, in the long run, this actually could be threatening to the U.S. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 02:08, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Jumps up to 70% in the special TWO! Cyclone10 E-Mail  03:15, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Just when I thought activity was gonna take a break for a bit, this guy pops up. That said, I don't think this one is going to cause too much excitement. Most of the models are underwhelmed. I think the shear is expected to pick up ahead of the storm in a few days. Most of them develop it, but keep it pretty week. GFS kills it in the Caribbean and the Euro doesn't even have it surviving to reach the Caribbean. The next wave that's about to come off Africa though is projected by multiple models to throw a party over the east Atlantic. Stay tuned. -- SkyFury 06:05, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">renumber td 7 <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 07, 2012080912,, BEST, 0, 137N, 417W, 25, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, might be Gordon later on but until then I am not sure if it will be name.Allanjeffs 14:22, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Nope, no TD 7 at 11am. Yqt1001 (talk) 15:05, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

And I agree with them it looks horrible maybe later.Allanjeffs 15:11, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm not overwhelmed by this at this moment, but at least it's giving us something to track. The AOI crossing Africa will probrably become our next huge hit, but i'm currently not convinced it will hit land, especially if it developes instantly and is eventually recurved out to sea. Ryan1000 18:55, August 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * IVCN and SHIPS both develop this. SHIPS sees it nearing hurricane strength five days down the road, whereas IVCN develops it more gradually. I don't know all that much about the models, but I was under the impression that SHIPS was generally good. --HurricaneMaker99 19:53, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Again hope its real this time.invest_RENUMBER_al922012_al072012.ren.Allanjeffs 19:57, August 9, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now is official.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 07, 2012080918,, BEST, 0, 137N, 429W, 30<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">, M,.Allanjeffs 20:11, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Seven
Yep.-- Cyclone10 E-Mail  21:00, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Well, HM99, SHIPS is the model representing NHC. It's forecast to head into the Caribbean, but it will be in a shear-ridden environment. It currently isn't expected to do more than become a TS, like Ernie did. However, things could always change, so keep your eyes out. Here comes Gordon... Ryan1000 23:13, August 9, 2012 (UTC)


 * Things are looking grim for TD 7. Though TS watches have now been issued for much of the Lessers, the NHC now brings TD 7 to 35 kts before dissipating it in a few days. HurricaneMaker99 20:38, August 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Advisory 5A says that NOAA Buoy 41040 recorded 36 mph sustained winds 50 miles NNW of the center. We probably have Gordon on our hands, unfortunately. As much as I want Gordon to be retired, that would involve wishing for the doom of many communities. Could he pull an Edna and be retired retroactively? --HurricaneMaker99 00:07, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * I still sob over his snub from 1994, but he'll be retired sooner or later. Hopefully this year. Ryan1000 13:25, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

Remnants of Seven
Hurricane Hunters failed to find a low-level circulation... which means this won't become Gordon! Yay! :D --HurricaneMaker99 14:40, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Oh well. And 93L isn't looking too promising either. Looks like we're starting to quiet down. Ryan1000 14:51, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Oh, well. I was expecting this to become Gordon...but the remnants might regenerate. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:36, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

Not likely to happen. 93L might, but I have limited hopes on that coming up to be Gordon either. Ryan1000 00:54, August 12, 2012 (UTC)


 * 10%. Isaac829 E-Mail  06:27, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * If it pass north of CA we might see redevelopment with these system in the gulf of Mexico.Allanjeffs 21:13, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's not heading for the gulf Allan. It's going to run into the Yucatan Peninsula and re-emerge in the BOC like Ernesto did, but probrably as a much weaker, non-tropical storm. Ryan1000 02:25, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * 20% of regeneration, and upper-level winds are expected to become for favorable for regeneration. Gordon or just TD 7 again could redevelop, but it might affect the U.S.. STO12 (talk) 21:08, August 13, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm stil not placing my cards on that. I don't really think it will redevelop. Likely to hit the Yucatan tomorrow or Wensday and die overland. Ryan1000 00:16, August 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 10% now and running ashore in Nicaragua. No Gordon (or Helene) coming here. Ryan1000 19:03, August 14, 2012 (UTC)


 * 0%. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:50, August 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Back up to 10%, and forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche... give it up, you're not going to regenerate! --HurricaneMaker99 10:52, August 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * 20% may be Helene after all.Allanjeffs 20:35, August 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * 40% it may re develop and be stronger than ever.Allanjeffs 00:09, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * Why does this thing defy logic? Just die already! Ryan1000 01:23, August 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * I honestly thought this would redevelop here after seeing the models earlier this week. Likely going to turn northwest then straight north and stay parallel to the coast, then make landfall just to the northeast of Corpus Christi as a moderate to strong tropical storm. That is if the models continue to hold true. Supportstorm (talk) 02:03, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * This thing could easily become a tropical cyclone again. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * 70% here comes td 7 and probably Helene.Allanjeffs 12:40, August 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * 80% after a special TWO. Isaac829 E-Mail  16:11, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * I hope it hits Mexico instead and just dies out. May become Helene, but not likely to become very strong anyways due to it's proxmitity to land. Ryan1000 17:14, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * If this thing becomes Helene, it will not be a major hurricane like the 2006's Helene, not unless it is not named again and the other tropical wave becomes Helene, but it looks like as of now this might be the weakest reincarnation of Helene. 65.34.84.50 18:03, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * <span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;line-height:normal;">AL, 07, 2012081718,, BEST, 0, 203N, 959W, 35, 1005, TS looks like we have Helene! 65.34.84.50 20:49, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * And Finally it get her wish to get name and some of you were saying that it will be dead I knew it will get name But I thought it would be Gordon anyways is Helene now.Allanjeffs 21:03, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * And Finally it get her wish to get name and some of you were saying that it will be dead I knew it will get name But I thought it would be Gordon anyways is Helene now.Allanjeffs 21:03, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Helene
And it's here. I never expected ex-7 to regenerate, but it did. Expect it to hit Mexico tomorrow morning. And for the record, the storms template needs Helene first because it existed as TD 7 (07L) before Gordon (08L). Ryan1000 21:47, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

Well, hello Helene! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:10, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Well that was short lived... Supportstorm (talk) 03:04, August 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * How in the world did TD7 pull this off. I didn't think this thing had a prayer. Until it showed up in the Bay of Campeche as a medium risk area out of nowhere, it was at "near 0%" chance and moving over Central America to die. Bizarre. And Supportstorm, you're right, Helene sure looks like it's exited stage left. -- SkyFury 05:47, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * I never saw it coming either, but it happened. Either way, it didn't do much to Mexico other than bring some (potentially beneficial) rainfall. The lower Lessers (Trinidad and Tobago) got winded a little bit from the remains of TD 7, but it wasn't too bad for them. Ryan1000 11:01, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Helene
Down to a TD. 35 mph, 1008 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 17:45, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Should die out soon. Not much else. Ryan1000 17:57, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">May regenerate later as some models are saying.Allanjeffs 18:53, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">If it does regenerate, i will likely call Helene the outlier of the year. 65.34.84.50 19:01, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Right now is a pathetic excuse of a tropical cyclone.Allanjeffs 20:30, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I've seen extratropical cyclones better looking than Helene. And Allan, I highly doubt Helene will regenerate or contribute to Illeana's development Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:25, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene
And she faaaaades ooooouuuut agaaaaaaiiiiinnn... Were there any other storms that spent more time as a remnant low than an actual tropical cyclone? (storms with only one life, e.g. Gaston, don't count) --HurricaneMaker99 02:50, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

I don't know! Maybe Ana '09? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:10, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

Or Fred 09'? 65.34.84.50 18:47, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Fred only lived once. Ana spent more time as a TC. --HurricaneMaker99 19:45, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: Over Senegal
I have very high expectations for this wave. Atm, 20%. Cyclone10 E-Mail  18:01, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I expect it to become strong in the long run, but hopefully it doesn't do more than spin fish out at sea. Ryan1000 18:55, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

You know model support is good when NHC gives a wave over land a 20%! Yqt1001 (talk) 18:56, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm strongly convinced this will eventually be a major, but I don't know if this storm (Helene) will affect land. Storms that develop this far east rarely affect anyone in the Caribbean and lower 48, maybe Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. There are a few exceptions like Ivan and Hugo, but this storm will likely not pull one of them. I have a feeling the Bermuda high will recurve it eventually or it will run into a trough and go out to sea. Ryan1000 19:49, August 9, 2012 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Invested! 30% per NHC. Just exiting the coast of Africa, still think it counts as being over land though! Yqt1001 (talk) 00:08, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * 50%, might develop within the next 24 hours if it continues with these trends.. Yqt1001 (talk) 06:04, August 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * As I said above, I'd be surprised if this doesn't become at least a strong hurricane in the long run, but I don't think it will affect land, aside from, perhaps Bermuda. Ryan1000 12:24, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * 30% D: Cyclone10  E-Mail  19:03, August 10, 2012 (UTC)
 * Starting to waver a bit. Can it hold on? Ryan1000 19:29, August 10, 2012 (UTC)


 * 20% :'( Cyclone10  E-Mail  01:11, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Maybe it only temporarily looked good, and won't develop into a big storm after all... =( Ryan1000 13:25, August 11, 2012 (UTC)

All we need now is for 93L to strengthen into a hurricane, recurve and head northeastwards into the UK. Only joking... &mdash;12R.KIEWII 17:08, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. I guess it could develop into a hurricane down the road if it enters more favorable conditions, but I wouldn't bet my money on a major. --HurricaneMaker99 20:01, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah. I'm not really thinking of any significant development until it crosses the cooler water. The GFS doesn't show any proper development until August 17-18. It does show re curvature though! &mdash;12R.KIEWII 20:11, August 11, 2012 (UTC)
 * Well, even though it likely won't affect land, I wanted to see it do something before it eventually recurves out to sea. Oh well...Nothing here. Ryan1000 00:54, August 12, 2012 (UTC)
 * 30%! Isaac829 E-Mail  15:11, August 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * Azores, Ryan. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 17:43, August 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 50%Allanjeffs 18:28, August 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * The Azores won't get anything from this other than a quick rainshower. I really don't want to see Gordon on the lists again, but he could come back with this storm, and not be retired. =( Ryan1000 19:03, August 14, 2012 (UTC)
 * 80% here comes td 8 could become a hurricane.Allanjeffs 11:57, August 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * 90%! Isaac829 E-Mail  18:35, August 15, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
Yay!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:57, August 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's here. 35 mph, 1013 mbar. Supposed to become Gordon, peak at 70 mph, and evade retirement again. --HurricaneMaker99 20:58, August 15, 2012 (UTC)
 * Knew it I expect it to become a hurricane maybe Gordon lost it chance of retirement after 1994 snub.Allanjeffs 01:44, August 16, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gordon
...and Godforsaken Gordon is here. 40 mph, rather high pressure of 1011 mbar. Forecast upped to minimal hurricane strength. --HurricaneMaker99 10:13, August 16, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like Gordon will follow his 2006 predecessor and it the Azores as a minimal hurricane. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:26, August 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Seems doomed to become the third hurricane of the season. The 5 pm advisory strengthens Gordon to 65 mph/999 mbar. Forecast peak intensity raised to 80 mph. At this rate, he'll be a hurricane by 11 pm. --HurricaneMaker99 21:09, August 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yep.Allanjeffs 22:40, August 16, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gordon will be retired one day, I hope, but he'll have to try again in 2018, because this Gordon won't do enough to earn retirement. The Azores may get some rain, but nothing severe. Ryan1000 01:21, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * If a certain pattern holds, he'll be gone after 2018. Ever since the current naming lists were instituted in 1979, every year with 8 in the ones place has had its "G" name retired. Think about it: Gilbert in 1988, Georges in 1998, Gustav in 2008... --HurricaneMaker99 02:13, August 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * And 70 mph! Isaac829 E-Mail  03:49, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hmmm, very interesting, Dylan. Also, those "G"'s all affected Haiti, so 2018‘s Gordon will likely be a C4 Haiti striker. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  08:01, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * Or it could brush right by Haiti like Gilbert did. Anyway, Gordon's down to 65 mph. He's forecast to restrengthen, but I'm not sure if he's still on course to become a hurricane. --HurricaneMaker99 14:00, August 17, 2012 (UTC)
 * ...and now hurricane strength is out of NHC's forecast. If the new forecast holds, this will be the first Gordon not to reach hurricane strength since the 1985 WPAC season, and the first one full stop in the Atlantic. --HurricaneMaker99 14:45, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

Wouldn't completely write it off, but it's not looking too likely to become much stronger. Ryan1000 17:14, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like this Gordon will be the weakest reincarnation of the name, as all others became hurricanes. Looks like Gordon isn't a major this year. 65.34.84.50 18:05, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

I doubt it I am almost sure it will become a hurricane but a major is almost out even though we need to rememeber what many say of Daniel in July that it will never reach hurricane intensity.Allanjeffs 21:41, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gordon doesn't appear to have lost his organization, he just lost thunderstorm convection near the center. I'm not writing him off yet; I never thought anything of Chris earlier this year and look what happened. It may become a hurricane, but definitely no major hurricane. Time isn't out yet for Gordon. Even if it doesn't become one operationally, I think it will be upgraded in post-season; it sure looked like a C1 yesterday. Ryan1000 21:56, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gordon will become a hurricane! And Robbie (65), your statement is incorrect if WPAC storms are counted (1985's Gordon had a pressure of 995 mb). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:16, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Gordon is just shy of hurricane status again.....<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 08, 2012081800,, BEST, 0, 342N, 431W, 60, 990, TS.Allanjeffs 01:57, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">I don't know if Gordon will reach hurricane strength, but it wouldn't surprise me. Regardless, it's looking like he's about to throw a party in the Azores which could be entertaining. -- SkyFury 05:51, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Gordon
Now a hurricane. 112.201.186.167 09:25, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">So it did make it. Glad I didn't write him off. He might bring some rain for the Azores, but nothing too serious. Good luck for retirement in 2018, Gordon. Your snub from 1994 will not be in vain! Ryan1000 11:01, August 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Now all we need is for the BAMD 06z forecast to be correct. ;) And up to 70 kt. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 11:39, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane warning for southeast Azores, now expected to peak near 75 kt. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 14:44, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Gordon could be a cat 2 as we speak maybe a major is not out of the question now.Allanjeffs 18:46, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

And its indeed a cat 2 the first of the season and its also the strongest of the season..AL, 08, 2012081818,, BEST, 0, 340N, 375W, 90, 969, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 30, 0, 1013, 175, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GORDON, D, Allanjeffs 18:51, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

He is making a run toward Category 3! Go Gordon, go! 65.34.84.50 18:58, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * What... the... hell?! So much for this being Gordon's weakest incarnation in the Atlantic! Category 2?! 105 mph, 970 mbar? o_o Wow. Ernesto's reign as strongest storm of the season didn't last long. Maybe's Gordon trying to pull a last-minute stint of rapid intensification in a (probably vain) attempt to knock up the Azores enough to get himself retired? --HurricaneMaker99 19:03, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gordon is really making a run ti major hurricane status right now.<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">If Gordon becomes a major hurricane it will be what happen to Daniel in the Eastern North pacific that he was just predict to be a cat 1 and become a cat 3 before encountering an unfavorable environment.Allanjeffs 20:22, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Daniel, meet your brother Gordon! 65.34.84.50 20:38, August 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * The 5pm NHC advisory confirms Gordon's Category 2 intensity. No further intensification forecast, though... --HurricaneMaker99 21:23, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Whoa, I did not see that coming at all. Maybe the Azores won't get so lucky from this after all. Gordon may indeed avenge his snub from 1994...stay tuned. Azores, watch out. Ryan1000 21:28, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gordon, time to join your brothers Chris and Daniel in defying your forecast. Even though he's beat poor Ernie, I doubt Gordon will make it to major. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:20, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * This storm reminds me of Hurricane Bonnie from 1992. Same spot, same intensity. And Ryan, I hope no Gordon "avenges" the 1994 snub, because that would require it to harm innocent people. -- SkyFury 23:41, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Gordon is now just a kiss away from becoming the first major of the season. 110 mph, 965 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 23:56, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Looks like we'll see a major. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:12, August 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Well as much as I want Gordon to depart from the naming lists, I know that he would have to cause a lot of damage to do it. Then again, it could also be retired by lower standards if it hits the Azores (like Igor in Newfoundland in September 2010). The Azores rarely see landfalling hurricanes; Bonnie of 1992 reached C2 well west of the Azores and hit them only as a tropical storm. Gordon is very close to the Azores and is still maintaining a very well-defined structure, continuing to intensify. At this point in time I would actually be very surprised if he doesn't become a major hurricane. He looks very good on the infared sattelite imagery and I would expect him to peak at 115-125 mph. The folks on Santa Maria Island are likely to get the brunt of this storm, and should be leaving now. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 04:48, August 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Down to 105 mph/969 mb. Combined with the fact NHC predicts further weakening, Isaac-wanna-be will be our first major. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  08:52, August 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * 100 mph/973 mb. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:13, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Btw the TCR of tropical storm Aletta has come out.Allanjeffs 14:10, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to Cat 1. 90 mph, 976 mbar. No major here, unless Gordon is potentially upgraded post-season. --HurricaneMaker99 19:54, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * The Azores aren't off the hook yet. They better get ready for Gordon; he'll be coming in very fast. It'll probrably be this strong, or 75-85 mph when it hits. It might still cause enough damage to be retired. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:10, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I remember reading somewhere that Hawaii tried to get Daniel retired because that storm name would always threaten them somehow. They were denied, but I wonder, without even knowing what damage will occur with Gordon, if the Azores/Portugal will request retirement of this name. Getting rid of this name, after appearing twice to come and get them, per se, can be more of a psychological precaution done by Azores/Portugal. 96.32.2.97 04:04, August 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * As far as I know, the Azores/Portugal never requested the 2006 Gordon to be retired, but it wasn't that bad for them. I don't know how bad this Gordon will be, but it passed just south of Santa Maria Island. However, the worst of this Gordon was north of the circulation, so it could have still caused some damage there. Ryan1000 06:41, August 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * 65 kts/987 mb. And 96, no damage or deaths have been reported yet, and as for Daniel，that's not the reason Hawaii submitted a retirement request. It was because the '06 one caused memorable damage. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:22, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gordon (2nd time)
Going down.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:57, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Despite recieving a direct hit from Gordon's eyewall, Santa Maria Island escaped with relatively minimal damage from Gordon. No deaths or serious injuries were reported as of yet. Ryan1000 19:07, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gordon
Curtains. --HurricaneMaker99 21:14, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
New invest popped up around Cape Verde. 10% on the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 13:59, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I have bad feelings about this one...in the long run, it might affect Bermuda or the lessers significantly. SHIPS also sees a peak of 110 knots from this by 120 hours. Not good. The "I" names remain cursed. Helene is coming out of ex-TD 7, and Gordon is starting to fade away. Here comes Isaac...He's the last original "I" name on the 1979-now lists, as every other one became retired. This year's Florence is also the last original "F" name on the list, but she'll have to try again in 2018. Ryan1000 17:14, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I have a feeling we are going to be talking about our first major hurricane of the season soon. I names always seem to be the bad hurricanes. It's also bad for replacement names because there are just few "I" names. 65.34.84.50 18:07, August 17, 2012 (UTC)

Well, 65, "I" names weren't really "cursed" until the 21st century came around. Before 2001, we only had two "I" names become retired, which were Ione in 1955 and Inez in 1966. Then, starting in 2001, we all of a sudden had tons of "I" names retired. We had Iris, Isidore, Isabel and Ivan 4 straight years in a row, and the replacements of Isidore and Ivan, Ike and Igor, were retired themselves after their first uses. Irene became retired last year, and Isaac could be retired this year if this causes enough damage in the long run. If this storm (future Isaac) is retired, not only will we have no original "I" names left, but it will be the third straight year with the season's "I" name retired, and the "I" name will also surpass the "C" name for being the most common letter name to be retired. That may be a bit too much to speculate for now, but even if this thing doesn't reach the eastern seabord of the United States, it will pose a threat to the Lesser Antillies, Bermuda, and in the way long run, possibly Atlantic Canada. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:47, August 17, 2012 (UTC)


 * GFS models have this a large and most likely powerful hurricane entering the Caribbean on August 23, but some models have it moving north into the open Atlantic. Category three or higher is likely out of this one. Then after the future Issac there is likely going to be a weaker storm form further out. And lastly a possible TS/ Hurricane could form in the GOM in about four or five days and strike the Texas/ Louisiana coastline. This is all going off of what models are showing in the next week so this could be very interesting. Supportstorm (talk) 01:23, August 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Behind Possible Isaac thr Gfs have Joyce and then possible Kirk in the Gulf and later Leslie leaving Africa.Allanjeffs 01:31, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * It depends. I don't like the looks of this storm. It may head out to sea, but only if it intensifies significantly quickly. I don't think it will do that, so the Caribbean needs to watch out for this storm. Ryan1000 04:34, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * I agree, Ryan. I know it's early, but the initial model forecasts are kinda scary. The majority of the GFS ensemble runs take it up toward South Carolina and the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance rapidly intensify it throughout the forecast period, bringing it to the doorstep of Category 4 by 120 hours. Granted those two models are often overzealous and at these early stages, these forecasts are little more than conjecture, but still we need to keep a close eye on this one. -- SkyFury 09:35, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * What else can I say? "I" names are cursed, and Isaac's already looks like it's asking for retirement in the long run. I have a feeling this could be a nasty storm for the Caribbean/Gulf coast states, or perhaps Bermuda, the upper lessers, or Atlantic Canada. Those scenarios are all too far out to tell for sure. It has a chance to hit the Eastern U.S, but if he does that I would expect a trough to pick him up and take him out to sea, which would be the best-case scenario. However, not all of the models are too generous with this in the next 3-4 days. I have a feeling a Caribbean/GOM scenario is most likely from this. Latest NHC TWO upped 94L to 30%. Also, the latest GFS forecast is starting to scare the crap out of me. They take it roaring into the lesser antillies and smashing Puerto Rico as a very powerful major hurricane. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 11:01, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's now up to 40%, but, in the longer run, the GFS has 94L pushing up the eastern seaboard then producing some incredible rainfall over Canada while a very deep extratropical cyclone. &mdash;12R.KIEWII 11:37, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * The Caribbean is what I'm more concerned about in the near future, particularly the area around the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. I find it hard Isaac will miss them. If it remains weak and stalls out as a wave, then it will head farther west than anticipated. 50% now, and could become a depression by tomorrow. Ryan1000 16:17, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Gordon wants to beat future-Isaac to Category Three status. If Gordon stays strong enough and does damage at the Azores, Gordon may finally be retired. 65.34.84.50 18:59, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Indeed, his rescent intensity upgrade caught me by surprise. He may avenge his 1994 snub, but it all depends on how much damage he does to the Azores. And back to this storm, it's not looking good either. Virtually none of the models take this out to sea, and the latest NHC forecast takes it up to a 115 mph major hurricane in 5 days. The GFS is also scaring me more and more with every new update. They now see Isaac-to be roaring well into the Caribbean and smashing the southwestern tip of Haiti as a very strong major hurricane. I think we already have our first retiree of the season (or second, if Gordon turns out to be bad enough). Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 21:45, August 18, 2012 (UTC)
 * Code red! 60%. --HurricaneMaker99 23:55, August 18, 2012 (UTC)


 * Here comes Isaac! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:15, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * Intensity guidance is less apocalyptic today, with none of the models taking it above category 1 strength by the end to the period. Still an unnerving storm to be sure, but a saner forecast lol. Ryan, I'm not sure what "NHC forecast" you're referring to since the NHC isn't issuing forecasts on it yet. Looks like it's going to run into Hispaniola before it gets too strong but could still be a very destructive hurricane. That part of the world doesn't need anymore natural disasters. -- SkyFury 04:45, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I meant the SHIPS model, which is the intensity model NHC uses. Well, technically not their "forecast", but I consider it as a precursor of what's expected from it. It may not be as strong as anticipated now, but that could always change. Haiti had their fair share of destruction, especially after the 2010 earthquake. I would hope it remains farther south and ends up in Mexico like Ernie did, but none of the models think the ridge will be that strong. The U.S. gulf and east coasts better keep a close eye on this too. Ryan1000 04:55, August 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * The gfs run is portraying Doom for Texas.Allanjeffs 16:44, August 19, 2012 (UTC)


 * Future-Isaac still remains a possible threat to the United States. I hope it gets stronger faster, as it would recurve quicker away from land areas. Simlover123 (talk) 17:56, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * 70% now. --HurricaneMaker99 17:59, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * I think it was 80% earlier today, but it weakened. I really don't like what GFS is portraying with this storm. They think Isaac will be be a re-1900 storm for the gulf goast. God forbid that ever happen...And when Isaac reaches western Cuba, GFS sees Joyce coming off of Africa as a strong storm, but heading out to sea. Ryan1000 20:10, August 19, 2012 (UTC)
 * The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement today and has shifted south, deeper into the Caribbean. Intensity guidance is really confusing. SHIPS and LGEM go nuts with it, while almost everybody else hardly strengthen it at all. The GFS takes a very plausible middle-of-the-road approach. It takes it up south of Haiti past Jamaica and into Cuba, eventually making it what appears to be a low end hurricane. My money's on that forecast right now. -- SkyFury 23:48, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

Up to 80%! --HurricaneMaker99 23:52, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">But GFS does see it exploding into a monstrous hurricane when it gets into the GOM, and hitting Texas as possibly a 120 mph or stronger major hurricane near Galveston. It's looking likely to become Isaac by tomorrow morning, but it's been a bit hesitant to intensify significantly. Gordon is passing over the Azores as we speak, and is likely to hit Santa Maria Island and it's 5000 residents later tonight. Ryan1000 02:29, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">This far in advance, however, such a forecast is little more than speculative. There's probably only a 10-15% chance that forecast even remotely verifies. That said, when the GFS talks, I listen. It acurately predicted Irene to pass right over Manhattan seven days in advance, albeit about 35 mph weaker than the GFS had. Still, that was one of the most impressive model performances I've ever seen. When most of the models and the NHC predicted Debby to head for Texas, the GFS predicted it to head east toward Florida, which it did. GFS (along with the Euro) also correctly kept Ernesto to the south, struggling to intensify. So yes, I'm listening. I just really hope that doesn't happen. -- SkyFury 03:52, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Of course it's not very likely, but it's not a good thing to see. There is currently a trough over the southeastern U.S. It's producing heavy rains over Florida as we speak and could recurve Isaac in the future, but if Isaac remains weak, it will remain south of the trough and then turn north to threaten the gulf coast. If the current SHIPS intensity forecast verifies, it might turn north and eventually east when it's near PR or the DR and miss the United States. It'll still do lots of damage if that happens though. Ryan1000 06:41, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Odd to note that HWRF model has six cyclones going at once between the 24 and 26. I doubt that will happen, but it's likely the next week could be very active. Supportstorm (talk) 22:07, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">SHIPS is much less enthusiastic with this now. They only see it becoming a strong C1. I personally think Isaac-to be will eventually head into Hispaniola and Cuba as a minor hurricane, then be picked up by the trough over the southeastern U.S. and head out to sea. Statistically speaking there is only a 16% chance for a storm like 94L to hit the U.S. at this time of year from where it is. Irene of last year was unusual. It formed in the same area 94L is right now and it was expected to run over Hispaniola and die early in it's life but somehow it missed them to the north and hit the eastern seaboard of the U.S. I'm not sure if this storm will do that, but I don't think it will as of now. Ryan1000 01:08, August 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * 90%... anytime, now... --HurricaneMaker99 01:20, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Track guidance is in exceptionally good agreement on a track across the northern Caribbean, staying south of, or just clipping, Hispaniola and the Haitian peninsula before moving into Cuba toward the Straits of Florida. Given such a consensus, I see no reason to forecast it to do anything else. Two big questions loom with respect to the track: how much of Hispaniola does it hit, and what happens after Cuba. Some of the ensemble guidance brings it into the eastern Gulf, others take it up the east coast. I will split the middle with my forecast, bringing it into the Everglades and then up toward the Carolinas, very close to the GFS solution. The intensity guidance remains split. None of the dynamical models do much with it. GFDL is not the least bit impressed and HWRF runs it into Hispaniola as a tropical storm and kills it. Euro keeps it a moderate tropical storm throughout the period. GFS has backed off the intensity a little bit, but still strengthens it to a low end hurricane (Cat 1/2) as it heads toward south Florida at the end of the period. SHIPS and LGEM still like it though not as much as they did yesterday. I still like the GFS solution. The GFS has been money lately so I'm sticking with it. But I agree with a lot of the models in keeping it weak for a while. This thing has struggled with dry air for its entire existence and I expect that to continue until at least Cuba, and that's contingent on it surviving Hispaniola, which at least one major model thinks it will not. -- SkyFury 03:48, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * 100% here comes td 9.Allanjeffs 05:51, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Advisories should be initiated at the 5am advisory time. -- SkyFury 06:34, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Currently i'm not expecting much more than a C1 or C2 with Isaac-to be, but how strong it gets will determine how bad it will be. Just because it may affect a lot of people doesn't mean it will be very bad for all of them. If it only becomes a C1, this might not be any worse than Ernesto of 2006 or so. Widespread, but not exceptionally severe. Ryan1000 07:36, August 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nine
Now a TD. Expected to become a hurricane. There are already watches up. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:17, August 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * NHC shows doom, a near MH in the Caribbean (110mph). Yqt1001 (talk) 13:30, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * ATCF says we have Isaac. Should be official momentarily. --HurricaneMaker99 20:44, August 21, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac
It's here!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:50, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * ATCF and the new forecast discussion say 1005 mbar, but the advisory says 1006. Huh. Anyway, NHC has revised their forecast downward and eastward, taking it over the central Tiburon Peninsula instead of clipping it to the west. That should keep Isaac from exceeding 85 mph winds, if the new forecast verifies. --HurricaneMaker99 21:05, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Not good for Haiti though. My big concern is where will it go after that. I think south Florida is Isaac's target in the long run, but by then at most a 100-105 mph C2. Still, it could do some damage at that intensity. This is an ominous storm, I have very bad feelings about Isaac. I also should point out that the Republican Party's national convention begins next Monday, August 27, in Tampa, Florida. Some of the models are suggesting Isaac could hit Tampa by then, and as a sizeable C2/C3, so it is possible the convention could be postponed/rescheduled. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:26, August 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * Right now, Isaac has 35 kt winds/1006 mb pressure. It is expected to become a weak Category 1 in the coming days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  05:37, August 22, 2012 (UTC)


 * This is getting interesting. GFS ensemble guidance has shifted westward, which is unnerving. However, the main GFS has actually shifted a little bit northward and eastward. The elephant in the room remains how much of Hispaniola does Isaac get. Many of the statistical/dynamical guidance plow it straight into the Dominican Republic and across the island. NHC is siding more with the ensemble consensus, which seems reasonable. The scary part about this storm is the level of uncertainty. Only a small deviation in the track one way or the other could have a significant impact on the intensity. If the current forecast track verifies, the current intensity forecast is conservative and I'd say you're probably looking at close to a 100 mph hurricane making landfall in south Florida, give or take 10 mph. Just a small deviation to the north, however, would probably mean a much weaker storm (barely a hurricane at most) striking the Miami area. Just a small deviation to the south, and we could have a potentially dangerous hurricane headed for the Florida panhandle by this time next week. That's an uncomfortably high level of uncertainty, especially when the stakes are this high. -- SkyFury 07:05, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * The intensity of Isaac is what concerns me most. It hasn't turned as far north as I initially anticipated, and that could mean we could have a very dangerous hurricane in the Caribbean in the next few days. If it remains weaker than forecast, but still intensifies, it might pass between Haiti and Jamacia and explode in or near the gulf of Gonaive. That's bad news for Cuba and Haiti, and worse for the folks in Florida. This is getting really nerve-wracking. Ryan1000 19:40, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

18Z models are out..starting to see a shift west, even the GFS is showing a track into the GoM now, not as extreme as the Euro though, but the target is slowly moving from SFL to Gulf Coast. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:33, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 8pm interim advisory says Isaac's moving at 265 degrees, just south of due west... --HurricaneMaker99 23:43, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * It's not organizing as much as I thought. As I said, it hasn't turned north as much as it was earlier thought it would. That means it might miss most of Hispaniola and rather clip Haiti or Jamacia. That's not good news for the Gulf Coast. This storm may be a bit disorganized now, but that won't last. Keep your eyes out. Ryan1000 00:04, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Apparently a new circulation is forming farther south and the original is becoming broader. This is form the the hurricane hunters facebook: MT @HRD_AOML_NOAA NOAA42 radar analysis of Isaac shows broad weak circulation at 2km & possible circulation displaced 100 km south at 7km. I wonder how radical of a change this will cause in the future track? Supportstorm (talk) 03:01, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * The 18Z ECMWF was flat out apocalyptic, bringing Isaac to the Mississippi coast as a major hurricane. This is very uncharacteristic of the Euro to be that aggressive and it has steadfastly maintained that westward track. And while I don't think this worst-case scenario will remotely verify, the Euro has been very consistent in this forecast. I think this storm is something of a moment of truth for the Euro. This normally reliable and well respected model has been off for the past couple of years, with several significant and uncharacteristic misses. If it blows this forecast, I think some significant modifications will need to be made to the Euro to improve its performance. The GFS, meanwhile has gradually shifted westward but has maintained intensity at a low end hurricane (which is what NHC has). Supportstorm brings up a good point. The center appears to be reforming further to the south and that makes one wonder whether the track forecast will shift accordingly. It should be noted, however, that while a westward shift would likely mean less interaction with Hispaniola, it could mean more interaction with Cuba. The NHC is being rather conservative with the intensity forecast once Isaac reaches the Gulf, which is probably wise because we have no way of knowing what land interaction will do to the circulation, which is already poorly defined. The strength of a storm's circulation has a lot to do with its ability to recover from land interaction. I've seen a storm emerge into an ideal environment but fail to intensify because the inner core had been heavily disrupted. But the general westward shift in the models is worrisome. -- SkyFury 04:11, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * If it passes south of Haiti though, it could explode in the western Caribbean, because by the time it nears Haiti/Jamacia Isaac will more than likely be a hurricane, and the western Caribbean is more than favorable for this storm to develop. I think it could end up anywhere from the upper gulf coast to even the upper east coast. It all depends on when (or if) that trough catches Isaac. And Eric, if Isaac passes south of Hispaniola, it will evade most of the problems he'll encounter because Hispaniola is very mountainous. Only eastern Cuba is very mountainous and if Isaac survives that (more than likely he will), then Florida will have a big problem on their hands. If he runs into Hispaniola as a weak tropical storm like Emily last year, then he'l probrably die out without causing significant harm. But that scenario is looking less and less likely to happen. He's really starting to scare me.Ryan1000 04:34, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Not sure what it is about the Eastern Caribbean, but it must be the trade winds. Quite a bit of comparisons to Irene on this one. They both entered the Caribbean rather weak and disorganized both expected to pass over Hispaniola and Cuba into South Florida. However right after crossing the Lesser Antilles the center relocated. With Irene it was 75 km north, allowing her to miss Hispaniola to the north and become a category 2 hurricane before the Bahamas. With Isaac though, we are seeing a whole half a degree of latitude cut. A fast, weak disorganized system is heading W at a much lower latitude than originally expected, especially if the claims on a relocation to 14.9N (1 whole degree south) come true. If 75km for Irene meant landfall shifted from Florida to North Carolina, imagine what 150km could mean in a weeks time. Right now though, Isaac is having a problem due to his massive size. Yqt1001 04:34, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Climatologically speaking, the eastern Caribbean isn't supposed to be very favorable for development of storms, but Isaac isn't going to remain disorganized forever. I strongly feel he will re-organize in the coming days (and possibly shrink to a smaller, more concentrated center) when he reaches the central/western Caribbean. He's not organizing very much because his center is moving by so fast. He needs to slow down a bit to 15-17 mph before those thunderstorms can re-organize over the center. Currently Isaac, like Ernesto was in this area, is blazing westward at 21 mph. If he doesn't slow down, he might not become much after all and follow in Ernie's footsteps. I personally don't think that will happen, but we'll see. Ryan1000 04:46, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I just don't think it'll make it to the western Caribbean, it should head up toward Cuba before it gets there. It simply won't have enough time to strengthen much in that little channel between Haiti and Cuba. We'll see how it fares when it reaches the Gulf. Needless to say, living in Mobile, I'm keeping a close eye on this one. -- SkyFury 05:36, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I don't think Isaac will do what Irene did. The scenario in which he avoids Hispaniola seems most plausible to me. The Gulf Coast should watch out. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:08, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Well, now it looks more likely to intensify, because it did exactly what it needed to do (as I said above). It slowed down significantly from 21 mph to 15 mph, and therefore it's starting to organize some more. Maybe could be a hurricane by later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 17:10, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Hmmm...Isaac's been rather timid today. It has been in a favorable environment for intensification, but it never got past minimal TS strength all day. I thought it would intensify significantly, given the conditions it is in, but it hasn't. Maybe he won't be a hurricane in the Caribbean after all. However, when he reaches the GOM, it could be a different storm to track. Ryan1000 23:52, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The track models shifted west all day today. I don't get NHC's center fix. The center looks to be much further south than they're indicating and I'm not convinced it's not gonna miss Hispaniola entirely. A landfall between Biloxi and Panama City seems likely. The intensity all depends on how much land interaction there is and the inner core structure when the storm enters the Gulf. For the record, the oceanic and wind shear conditions where Isaac is are ideal right now, easily capable of supporting at least a Category 4. The reason Isaac has thus far been unable to take advantage is because it has a poorly organized inner core, largely due to a pocket of mid-level dry air that has kept the mid-level center and surface center decoupled. This pocket is expected to mix out soon and once Isaac moves away from the dry continental air spilling off the South American continent, it should begin to organize a little better. It'll be very interesting to see how this plays out over then next few days. Right now, the official NHC track forecast brings the storm right through my neck of the woods, so, while I'm sure that will change, I obviously have a vested interest in this storm. I love this time of year. -- SkyFury 06:06, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

It indeed might miss Hispaniola if it stays weak like it has. I think it might explode in the area Gustav did, or it could do it a little futher east in the area Dennis did. It all depends on how long it stays a TS. If it intensifies sooner, it'll probrably follow what NHC is currently saying, but if Isaac waits a little longer and heads farther west than indicated, central/western Louisiana and Texas could be targets in the long run, instead of the panhandle of Florida to the big easy. Ryan1000 07:00, August 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * Not much updating on this page as of late. Isaac has intensified to a near hurricane at 60kts and is about to make landfall on haiti. The models have shifted east in the short term meaning less land interaction and a stronger storm likely for SFL. Long term still has Florida Panhandle to Mobile (sorry skyfury :P ) as the main target. Yqt1001 (talk) 04:31, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Hey, I know there's a decent chance that we take it on the chin from this thing. I could be right in it. I gotta make a run to the store tomorrow anyway, so I'll be stocking up. I really hope I don't run into a huge crowd of people. I just got gas at a 24 hour station near my apartment (it's after midnight here right now). $3.47! Everybody else is at least $3.59. The next few days are definitely gonna be interesting around here. Waiting on the 00Z Euro run to be posted, which should be about an hour from now. -- SkyFury 05:24, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Isaac has weakened a little to 60 mph/992 mb. However, there is still that chance of Isaac becoming a hurricane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:42, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to peak at cat 2 he could be stronger or weaker.Allanjeffs 15:13, August 25, 2012 (UTC)
 * Yeah, NHC currently expects a 100 mph hurricane from Isaac in the GOM, but that isn't very good for the folks on the panhandle. This thing might hit anywhere from Panama City to the Alabama/Mississippi border. Currently Isaac lost himself a bit due to land interaction with Haiti and Cuba and rescently weakened. Isaac is looking rather broad and disorganized at this moment, but NHC still expects him to be a hurricane when he hits the keys late Sunday/early Monday. The folks there -- and on the upper gulf coast, should watch out for Isaac over the next few days. Ryan1000 18:27, August 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * GFS is still shifting to the west. Isaac829 E-Mail  18:59, August 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * I really hope it isn't that bad here in Tampa. What do you guys think will be the effects here? Should we board up the windows? 65.34.84.50 19:00, August 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * Given the size of the wind field form Isaac it would be a smart idea to board up windows. I would also monitor your local NWS for warnings which is linked here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/. From the looks of it you might be in for a rough ride. Supportstorm (talk) 19:53, August 25, 2012 (UTC)


 * 65, I don't think Tampa will reccieve the brunt of this storm. Earlier it was possible Isaac could've recurved towards Tampa, but that's not expected now. If anything Tampa should reccieve the outskirts of Isaac, some wind and rain at most, but nothing too severe. The folks near the Panhandle could have a different story from Isaac though. Isaac could be, by then, a category 2 or 3 hurricane bearing down on the coast. Stay tuned though. He's definitely a big threat in the next few days to come. Ryan1000 19:58, August 25, 2012 (UTC)

The models just want to keep pushing this thing farther west with every update. Currently a category three striking New Orleans is not out of the question. Supportstorm (talk) 00:07, August 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Still at 60 mph. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:50, August 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * I highly doubt Isaac will directly hit Tampa. Robbie, this WILL NOT be like the Tampa Bay major hurricane, so don't freak out too much. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:38, August 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">I am going to say Isaac is going to peak at cat 4 because he is the last veteran I and there is a space that needs to be feel.

<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">cat 3: Isidore and Irene <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">cat 4:Iris <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Cat 5:Isabel and Ivan <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">the only space is for cat 4 we will see if my theory proves correct hope not.Allanjeffs 05:37, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Isaac (Continued)
So I could get there easily, BTW, still 65 mph.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  15:09, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Ike and Igor:Also cat 4's (the replacements of Isidore and Ivan), but Isaac will probrably peak as a C3 or strong C2. Maybe the run from the Euro model earlier wasn't so crazy after all. Currently Isaac is expected to hit Mississippi as at least a 105 mph hurricane. Not too good for the folks over there. A major definitely isn't out of the question, but hopefully it won't Isaac could be a hurricane later today or early tomorrow. He's really getting his act together. Also, he's pretty big. TS winds currently extend 205 miles out (By comparison, Katrina's extended 230 miles out). Once his south side recovers from some dry air ingestion, he'll start to take off. He could be a very large hurricane when he makes landfall; he kind of resembles Ike of 2008 from his positioning and shape when he crossed Cuba, except I think he'll head farther north than he did. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 16:50, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Excusing me but I think it's rather funny how close to reality came my shot into the blue from earlier this year, when I was speculating that at one point might affect the RNC. In deed there wasn't much preventing Isaac having its say in Tampa. --88.103.177.44 18:13, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

I personally didn't expect Isaac to interfere with the Republican National Convention in Tampa (which begins tomorrow). At worst Isaac could have been, by now, moving up the west coast of Florida as a strong TS or weak hurricane, but that wouldn't have caused too much damage in Tampa. Now I think the most likely targets are Alabama, Mississippi, and the big easy. Mississippi is probrably going to be Isaac's most likely target over the next few days, by then which it could be a category 2 or 3 hurricane. Speaking of intensity, Isaac rescently fell to 60 mph. However, he seems to have recovered from land interaction and dry air ingestion. It may become a hurricane soon. Ryan1000 19:38, August 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * Lot more organized, but back to 60 mph :( Isaac829  E-Mail  21:14, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">I'm dropping in for a bit here today. A few days ago we might have doubted whether Isaac could actually become a hurricane, now we know it's tracking over north Cuba just like the 1900 Galveston hurricane, with more people threatened but less time over water. This could affect New Orleans, Biloxi, Pensacola. People are evacuating Monday and stores are out of hamburgers. Rainfall over the Mississippi River could be intense. This will not be a direct hit on Tampa, but storm surge is still a major possibility. ECWMF brings it to a cat. 5. This might not be another Katrina, but the geography of the land ensures that even given our little uncertainty anything can happen at this point. NHC forecast puts it directly over Pontchartrain on day 3. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane (talk) 23:26, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">NHC predicts a landfall over the Louisiana/Mississippi border, but in reality Astro, most of the models have shifted farther west. NHc predicts a landfall much farther east than the others are suggesting. Most of them, including the GFS, now predict a landfall over central/western Louisiana. Some even take it to Texas. That's at least 3 days away, and over the GOM at this point, Isaac could be a monster. We could have another Ike if that happens. Isaac's windfield is pretty big right now, 205 miles out. Ryan1000 03:38, August 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">I can't believe how far west a lot of these computer models are taking it. They not only have that trough missing Isaac, they build this massive ridge that forces Isaac straight northwest...almost west-northwest. The normally reliable Euro has maintained the eastward track though has shifted west some. This is what's really giving forecasters fits is the two most reliable models have had drastically different solutions. It is worth noting that Debby was in a similar scenario, with a strong blocking high and weak steering currents. Nearly all the models took it west to Texas, however the GFS had an eastward track and that's where the storm went. Now it's the GFS that's on the westward bandwagon and the GFS has done a little better than the Euro of late and has thus far done better with this storm than the Euro has. So as hard as it is for me to believe that the ridge will be that strong, the GFS hasn't given me reason to doubt yet. Not gonna lie, I'm kinda bummed that I won't be getting a hurricane this time around. -- SkyFury 05:41, August 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Isaac is looking better with each new advisory. He should be a hurricane later today at some point. Given the conditions it's in, Isaac may rapidly intensify at some point before landfall, but heading for the big easy isn't so good, especially on the 7th anniversary of the costliest disaster in U.S. history. Given the conditions in the GOM, I see no reason why Isaac can't get to cat 3 intensity or, as some models are predicting, cat 4 or even 5. Ryan1000 08:41, August 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Isaac is looking better organized but NHC says the winds continue to refuse to come up. The storm is dealing with dry air and some southwesterly shear, so I would rule out it being a major hurricane at landfall. NHC has actually revised the intensity forecast down to just a high end Category 1. The storm has looked a lot better of late and the inner core even appears to be getting better defined. So I'm mystified as to why the storm has yet to strengthen. I'm increasingly getting the feeling that this storm will be much ado about nothing. -- SkyFury 08:58, August 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Even if it only peaks as an 85 mph hurricane or so, given how big Isaac is, the storm surge potential for Isaac is about as high as a category 2 hurricane which, given the angle of where it's coming ashore, could mean serious trouble for New Orleans. It's currently over a cool part of the loop current, but by tonight and Tuesday, it will be over a warmer part with less shear and dry air. I don't think it will get past C1 as of now though, because even if it does intensify tomorrow, Isaac is too big to explode to a C2 or stronger. It's not good for storm surge, but better with regards to intensity. Ryan1000 16:52, August 27, 2012 (UTC)

Now 70 mph/981 mb. The NHC predicts Isaac to become a C2 once more. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:48, August 27, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">For some reason, it just hasn't been wanting to be a hurricane. 981 mbars is awfuly low for a TS. Only a few storms I know have had lower pressures yet didn't become hurricanes, one being Delta of 2005, with 980 mbars. It should be one very soon, perhaps later tonight or tomorrow morning. Ryan1000 23:55, August 27, 2012 (UTC)

New advisory, still not a hurricane, but pressure continues to fall, now 979 mbars. It should be one anytime now... Ryan1000 03:34, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

Still at 70 mph, but with a 977 mb pressure (the average pressure of a C2!) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:37, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * Still not a hurricane.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  11:58, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * I am sure it will be one at the next advisory.Allanjeffs 12:36, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * You spoke too soon Allan. Latest advisory says it's STILL not a hurricane, but pressure fell to 976 mbars. Isaac won't be a hurricane at all unless it really gets it's act together right now. It's much less organized than I thought it would be by now. Ryan1000 15:04, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

Hurricane Isaac
Isaac is finally a hurricane! It's about time.....but in a bad way.....poor gulf coast :( STO12 (talk) 17:23, August 28, 2012 (UTC)


 * Very close to landfall. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:34, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * This thing may only be a category 1 hurricane, but it rivals the size of Katrina, and hurricane force winds are 60 miles out despite only rescently being upgraded. This massive storm has the potential to produce a storm surge equivalent to a category 2 hurricane, but the biggest threat with Isaac, as far as I'm concerned, is not really his storm surge. Isaac is not that strong; even from a 75 mph category 1 hurricane like him, I would not expect the storm surge to be higher than 8-10 feet. Rainfall and inland flooding is Isaac's biggest threat. Isaac is moving at a mere 8 miles per hour, It's hundreds of miles across, and it's not expected to leave southeastern Louisiana and New Orleans until Thursday. That means some areas could experience significant flash flooding for up to two days and Isaac could be like an Allison for the big easy. Just because it's not that strong doesn't mean he won't be bad. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:42, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * This doesn't sound good for the Midwest. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:02, August 29, 2012 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Could this be associated with Helene's remnants? NHC gives this 20% and describes it as "showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico ... associated with a surface trough." It looks so close to where Helene made landfall, though... --HurricaneMaker99 22:31, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I think it is ex-Helene, but there was another area of thunderstorms just northeast of Helene when it made landfall. This might be that new area of storms, but I think it is ex-Helene. SHIPS doesn't even have a TS in the forecast of this for the next 4 days. By then 94L is expected to be a category 3 bearing down on the Lesser Antillies. Ryan1000 23:07, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">It's not. NHC would've mentioned it if it was. Helene's circulation died over the Sierra Madre. This patch of thunderstorms was there before Helene got there and was projected by the models a week ago. I don't expect much from this storm. None of the models do anything with it. They do, however, project at least one, possibly two, storms to form in the east Atlantic behind 94L. -- SkyFury 00:08, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

I don't think any of the two future storms crossing Africa will affect land, but 94L (Isaac) will and is a very serious threat right now. I think Isaac-to be will become a major in the Caribbean, but it could also be timid like Ernesto was and not get past category 1. This is a dud...won't become anything significant. Ryan1000 02:37, August 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * 30%. --HurricaneMaker99 15:18, August 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Here comes Tropical Depression Ten （if 94L becomes Isaac). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:23, August 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I don't know if this will be ten or eleven; 96L is gaining steam as well. Ryan1000 01:08, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * If this thing gets a name, I'll be shocked. All the models run it straight into Mexico as soon as it develops. -- SkyFury 03:55, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Down to 10%. --HurricaneMaker99 00:01, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now inland over northeastern Mexico. Down and out. --HurricaneMaker99 18:10, August 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * Never expected much from this. The fact it didn't become named, let alone numbered, doesn't at all surprise me. Ryan1000 23:36, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cape Verde
New AOI just popped up. 10% on the TWO. --HurricaneMaker99 23:51, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

It will probably become Kirk. Isaac829 E-Mail  23:59, August 19, 2012 (UTC)

What about Joyce? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:11, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Yeah, i'm thinking Joyce. I highly doubt 95L^^ will become Joyce given the conditions it's in. Ryan1000 02:31, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
20% now, but not looking as likely to affect land in the long run as 94L (Isaac) is. Ryan1000 08:30, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

The Atlantic has really come to life even in an el Niño year we are surpassing the eastern Pacific what a joke for that basin.Allanjeffs 08:49, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

This isn't the first time this has happened. 2004 was in a Niño, and it still was the costliest US hurricane season on record at the time. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:26, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm quite surprised. We have 3 areas in the Atlantic at medium risk (30%, to be exact) or higher. If all 3 of them develop, we would have 7 storms in August. We would then just need one more after that to have the record, tying 2004. 94L is probrably going to develop sooner than 95 and 96L. Statistically storms like 94L have only a 16% chance of affecting the U.S. at this time of year, and the trough over the southeastern U.S. could take it anywhere from Florida to North Carolina, or Isaac could remain south of the trough and end up in Texas or Mexico. It's all too far out to tell, but we'll see. Ryan1000 19:07, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">40% probably Joyce in the next couple of days.Allanjeffs 23:53, August 20, 2012 (UTC)

Or potentially Kirk, if 95L beats it to the punch. I still don't think this will affect land in the long run, though it may become a major hurricane. Ryan1000 01:08, August 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * I don't either, and I don't think 95L will become a tropical storm. This one will probably be Joyce. My beloved GFS doesn't do much with this storm, and neither does the Euro, which gives me a sneaking suspicion that we won't see a hurricane out of this storm. Even the normally-enthusiastic SHIPS and LGEM only make it a moderate tropical storm. We could have another Florence on our hands. -- SkyFury 04:04, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * I actually think a cat 1 or 2 but it may surprise us we cat 3 is 50% now.Allanjeffs 05:51, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Wouldn't matter either way, but it gives us something to watch when Isaac dies out. Ryan1000 07:36, August 21, 2012 (UTC)


 * 60% here comes td 10 I am not sure if it is going to be a fish though.Allanjeffs 11:50, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * It probrably will be, bar possibly Bermuda or Canada, but it won't follow Isaac. I would not expect much from this. Ryan1000 21:43, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Up to 70%. --HurricaneMaker99 00:17, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

90% now. Advisories could be initiated tomorrow. -- SkyFury 07:08, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

It was up to near 100% and it was renumber the 10th of the season has come <span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">AL, 10, 2012082212,, BEST, 0, 122N, 357W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 225, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M,Allanjeffs 12:46, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten
Advisories have been initiated, some gradual intensification is expected. Bermuda could potentially be affected by this system next week &mdash;12R.KIEWII 16:02, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

At most, I see a re-Florence coming. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:20, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I'm rather unimpressed by Joyce-to be. It might be a moderate tropical storm, but not much else. It probrably won't hit anyone; even Bermuda might not get much from this in the long run. Ryan1000 23:36, August 22, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Might become a cat 1 remember this has been a sweet spot for storms this year.Allanjeffs 00:12, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">We got Joyce!!!<span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">Yeah 10/3/0 we are really ahead of schedule who say this season would be a bust:Allanjeffs 12:45, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Joyce
Hello Joyce.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  14:55, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">We're not even over with August and this is where 2006, the last time this list was used, ended at. Even so, Joyce really wasn't used since 2000, because the 10th storm of 2006 was an unnamed storm found in reanalysis off of Nova Scotia. This will probrably be a fish. Ryan1000 17:10, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Joyce
35 mph, 1008 mbar. "CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF JOYCE DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO." --HurricaneMaker99 03:04, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Why am I not surprised? This thing fails worse than Florence. Ryan1000 05:10, August 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * The NHC is predicting Joyce to remain a 35 mph depression through the forecast period - have they ever done that before? --HurricaneMaker99 12:37, August 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure. Anyway, Joyce is our 2nd EPIC FAIL! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:59, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Joyce
Well that was pathetic. --HurricaneMaker99 14:47, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">How pitiful. This was nothing more than a re-Gaston. It existed for a day, then died. Ryan1000 16:15, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I know, I was hoping for more from Joyce. It just got blasted into oblivion. -- SkyFury 05:09, August 25, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Off Africa
10%, but may become future Kirk. If that happens, along with TD 10 above becoming Joyce, we might see a 7 storm August, second only to 2004 for the most active ever. Ryan1000 00:04, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

2011 also have seven they had Emily all the way to Katia the same will be here E to K letters.and Kirk sounds like a name for a major.Allanjeffs 00:12, August 23, 2012 (UTC)

I believe this will be a weak tropical storm. To me, Kirk sounds like a name for a tropical storm. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:01, August 23, 2012 (UTC)


 * Computer models has this as a major hurricane in a couple of days...hitting the east coast. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:08, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Kirk wasn't even used the last time it was supposed to be in 2006, and TD 10 is also starting to lose it. Wouldn't write either one off yet, but at least they won't be as significant as Isaac. Ryan1000 04:38, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure. This one could eventually threaten land. Models seem to take it more to the south toward the northeast Caribbean. Stay tuned. -- SkyFury 07:03, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Even if it could affect land, it's way too far to tell for sure. Ryan1000 17:10, August 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * Now 20%. May be invested soon. Ryan1000 00:02, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Invested and up to 30%. --HurricaneMaker99 12:39, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">The models don't currently have a consensus on where this will go. It might head northwest and stay out to sea, or it could follow in Isaac's footsteps and affect the Caribbean. However, most of them do think it will remain a weak TS/TD 5 days out. Ryan1000 16:13, August 24, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">May become Kirk before September.Allanjeffs 19:04, August 25, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px"><span style="font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:12px;">up tot 50%.97L is on its way to become td 11 and we may get Kirk before August end it will be 7 name storms for August quite amazing and even more for an el Niño year I predict 16 name storms and they might come into fruition if activity continues I may up it to 17.btw 16/9/3 is what I predict since April.Allanjeffs 23:58, August 25, 2012 (UTC)

I think we will hit Oscar this year. And Allan, 2004 had record August activity, and it was in an El Nino, too. -- Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:41, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">I predicted 11-17, 6-9, and 2-5 for storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, respectively, in my blog post much earlier this year, which wouldn't be very far off, or perhaps even too low given the rate of activity we've had rescently. Even so, 2005, the most active season on record, only had 4 storms form in August (Lee by the start of September), but we won't get a 2005 September or October for sure. Anyways, it loks like this will remain at sea. Ryan1000 16:50, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Even if we don't pull a 2005 September and October we might get to Alpha this year. If we get Kirk next week and five storms in September and four in October, Alpha might the November bitch. --88.103.177.44 18:08, August 26, 2012 (UTC)

I won't rule out running the table and getting the greeks, but i'm not immediately going to say we will do that. I also should point out that if we do get to Alpha (the 22nd storm) this year, the 2010, 2011, and 2012 Atlantic hurricane seasons will be the most active back to back to back Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, with 60 storms in all 3 years combined. The 2003, 2004, and 2005 hurricane seasons currently hold the record with 59. If we get more than 24 storms this year, 2011 and 2012 will be the most active back to back seasons on record, with 44 storms in both years. 2004 and 2005 have the current record with 43. It may be too far out to tell, but at the rate activity is pushing, it would not at all surprise me. Ryan1000 19:35, August 26, 2012 (UTC)


 * I think the El Nino expected to develop later this year will put a damper on those lofty predictions. I don't expect more than about 16 total storms, but those could all come before mid-October, when I expect the season to pretty much shut down. 97L is not the disturbance we should be worried about down the road. It's the new one that just came off Africa that worries me. GFS takes it into the Caribbean as a developing tropical storm and brings yet another disturbance right behind it. The Euro also develops this disturbance but appears to recurve it into the open Atlantic. It'll be interesting to see what happens. -- SkyFury 07:25, August 27, 2012 (UTC)
 * This thing is really taking it's time. I still think it has a chance to become Kirk, but it's been doing nothing, remaining at 30-50% for the last several days. Ryan1000 15:04, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven
...Or so I thought. It's here, and will likely become a minor TS before heading out to sea. Ryan1000 20:44, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

I always knew this will become a td not sure of a ts but might be Kirk and if we get him it will be 7 name storms for August simple amazing.Allanjeffs 20:55, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Well Allan, NHC predicts it will be Kirk, as do most of the models, but it probrably won't be very strong, let alone affect land. And we'll be catching up to the past few years too. Katia was named about this time last year, and Lee came at the start of September. Ryan1000 20:58, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

AOI:Off Africa
10% atm, but if 97L doesn't make it to Kirk, this one probrably will. Ryan1000 08:41, August 27, 2012 (UTC)


 * Likely to become Leslie in the long run. TD Eleven should be Kirk within the next couple of days. The NHC says that the AOI Africa system is expected to gradually develop. Right now its not that healthy, 20% only. I predict maybe a slight change in percentage of development within the coming week. STO12 (talk) 21:16, August 28, 2012 (UTC)
 * 30%Allanjeffs 23:59, August 28, 2012 (UTC)

New Hurricane Wiki Main Page
I think my renovated page can get more feedback here, so here you go:

Transcluded from my blog: Hello! Thanks for coming here.

Today I was thinking that our Hurricane Wiki main page was lacking detail, so I decided to make a test rennovation of it. I am currently accepting comments and feedback on my new rennovated main page that you can find here. Comment on this blog post if you want to send feedback. You can suggest more things or any fixes I can incorporate into the sandbox before I can replace the main page with it.

Thanks for your feedback in advance. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:06, May 20, 2012 (UTC)


 * I like the new homepage. Cyclone10 E-Mail  00:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * I actually think that it looks pretty good. We can make the new homepage official by the start of June; by then we should have reccieved enough feedback from everyone. Ryan1000 10:32, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * This new homepage is truly awesome! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * One quick question: what's the main thing about the article of the month thing I see there? Will it automatically be updated or will we choose what article goes there on IRC? Ryan1000 13:10, May 20, 2012 (UTC)
 * Regarding the article about the month.... we could either do a monthly pick on IRC anywhere from 0 to 3 days in advance of the next month, or we could create a set for the year. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 13:46, May 20, 2012 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Here's mine: Isaac829 E-Mail  15:31, August 24, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - No.
 * Beryl - 20% - Wasn't that much damage.
 * Chris - 0% - It's a early hurricane, but I still doubt it.
 * Debby - 25% - Wasn't as bad as I expected.
 * Ernesto - 20% - See you in 2018, Ernie.
 * Florence - 0% - Probably not.
 * Gordon - 15% - See Beryl.
 * Helene - 5% - Less damage than Ernesto.
 * Isaac - ?
 * Joyce - 0% - Florence's twin.


 * If it floats your boat; mine has a hole in it, though. Yes, retirement predictions can be fun, and I can't fault anyone for being excited at the early activity in the ATL and EPAC, but what's the point of doing these sections after just one or two failures that couldn't get the boot if they tried? I did mine just after Don last year, but I think just after the "A" storm is pushing it... but then again, this is the first time I've been here for the early-season (started posting in November 2010, then disappeared until last July), so if starting this early is a custom, then fine. But I won't post mine until we're at least through Debby (or until we get a significant storm, should she, Beryl, or Chris become such). --HurricaneMaker99 19:40, May 22, 2012 (UTC)

Yeah, I don't see the huge point in starting this section after the first storm in the season. Normally, I wait until we get 4-6 storms until I name my canidates in part 1, or a notable storm altogether. I began part 1 in 2010 in EPac right after the first storm in that year, but Agatha did have a reasonable chance of retirement. Alberto and Aletta do not. So can we perhaps wait a little more in the future? Ryan1000 23:50, May 23, 2012 (UTC)

I don`t know if to make predictions for the ENP because they never retire names with good numbers of retirement nowdays they didn`t even retire Agatha that kill a lot of people but retire Alma that just because represent soul I don`t think that is a good excuse for taking her out and not Agatha.Allanjeffs 22:59, May 31, 2012 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 24px">Retirements for Mexico and Central America are weird and most often random. Mexico retired Kenna of 2002, which killed 4 and did 101 million in damage and they didn't retire Karl or Alex of 2010, which did nearly 8 billion in damage combined. Alex was described by some as Monterrey's worst hurricane since 1909 and Karl hit Mexico's biggest port city as a major hurricane (also described as the worst hurricane to hit Veracruz in a long time), but wasn't retired. If you want to talk about snubs, don't go past Gordon. Karl was perhaps the worst damage snub ever, or a second to Juan of 1985. Ryan1000 01:01, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * So that's why one has to look for more than numbers alone to predict a retirement (such as post-impact press coverage, to name a factor), as I said I think during that debate about 2 years ago. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 01:37, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * Actually Ryan Central America retire almost anything that hits them except Matthew because I think the values of property damage were exagerate and its true Darren press coverage induce retirement with Mitch for example almost every octuber the press remember Mitch and they do an hour of remember of how much things it destroy and all that, meanwhile with Matthew no one remembers him. if you came here you will se how weird it is to someone in here not remember the name Mitch,supposedly is bad luck in here that name.Allanjeffs 04:20, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

I don't always care what the press says. What they view as bad isn't always what others view as bad. Hurricane Hanna of 2008, for example, didn't get that much press coverage after it struck Haiti(certainly not as much as Gustav and Ike did), but a storm that kills over 500 people still should be retired IMO. Hanna killed more people than Gustav and Ike combined for christ's sake. I don't care what anyone says; that's bad one way or another. Wouldn't you view 537 people dead as bad enough for retirement? Damage and media attention do play a role in notability, but it doesn't always correspond to what really is the case. Personally, I don't like the fact the Atlantic gets all the attention (the WPac and NIO storms are certainly more notable by death toll), but I know can't really change that. The media of the North Atlantic overhypes hurricanes when they approach the coastlines of Central America and the U.S, but the reason why is because they want to get people to evacuate and out of harm's way, because since the Mitch/Katrina tragedies ect, they don't want that to ever happen again. I don't know if it's because we "care more" in the U.S. or Central America, but I don't always view hurricanes based on the amount of media attention they get. A similar practice has been applied by the National Weather Service since the tragedy of the Joplin Tornado of 2011; the're using a more urgent voice in tornado warnings to get people out of harm's way, but that doesn't mean the tornado was as bad as they said it would be. Ryan1000 06:21, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * I'm talking about indicators that give a good idea if a storm name will be retired. Damages and deaths alone, due to past experience, cannot solely be used to determine if a storm will be retired. Admittedly, there are many which I believed should have been retired (maybe Lee, Karl, Alex and Agatha from the past 2 years. Honestly, I thought Lee had the best shot of all of these to be retired, followed by maybe Alex), but they weren't. I don't make my predictions on what I think should be retired, but what I think will be retired. <font color="Blue">Darren 23 Edits 15:13, June 1, 2012 (UTC)


 * For my retirement predictions, I take into account three things: statistics (55%), reaction (40%), and past occurances (5%). --CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:18, June 1, 2012 (UTC)
 * I make my predictions on what storm names I think should be retired. Although i'm not sure if the storm will be retired, if it killed enough people and caused enough damage (Hanna in one of those cases), then it should be retired IMO. What will happen isn't always what I think should happen, but that's just my opinion, of course, and if i'm wrong in the end, so be it. Ryan1000 18:26, June 1, 2012 (UTC)

My predictions: Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:19, June 22, 2012 (UTC)
 * 1) Alberto - 0.1% - Some slight effects in the Southeast, but it's not likely.
 * 2) Beryl - 10% - Lots of Memorial Day hype, but damage will probably not be enough for retirement.
 * 3) Chris - 0.01% - A rare and unusual storm! The 0.01% is for what he accomplished.
 * 4) Debby - 20% - Loads of flooding in Florida.
 * 5) Ernesto - 25% - Strongest storm, but this is no Emily.
 * 6) Florence - 0% - NO.
 * 7) Gordon - 5% - I underestimated your damage in the Azores.
 * 8) Helene - 2% - Gave Mexico some rain.
 * 9) Isaac - TBA - Will our last original remaining "I" name go? Or will it not?
 * 10) Joyce - 0% - Ususally, I don't post a storm's retirement chance while it's spinning, but Joyce has no hope of going.


 * We've started this already? Really? Lol. -- SkyFury 21:39, June 23, 2012 (UTC)
 * I mentioned it's not worth the trouble to start it after just few (fish) storms in the season. Unless Debby turns out to be threatening for Corpus Christi, I won't be posting mine for a while. Ryan1000 04:01, June 24, 2012 (UTC)


 * It's a little to early to do retirements, the next chance for me to post mine will be when a big hurricane is threatening a land mass, Debby came close, but it just decided to be picked up by the trough. 96.242.128.215 18:03, July 3, 2012 (UTC)

My Percentages:
 * 1. Alberto: 0% - Only slight effects.
 * 2. Beryl: 2% - Not alot of damage.
 * 3. Chris: 0% - Became a hurricane, and that's about it.
 * 4. Debby: 25% - Some flooding in Florida.
 * 5. Ernesto: 25% - Effects not damaging enough.
 * 6. Florence: 0% - See you in 2018.
 * 7. Gordon: 12% - Probably not much in Europe
 * 8. Helene: 10% - Didn't amount to much.
 * 9. Isaac: TBA - Still have to watch the track.
 * 10. Joyce: 0% - Joyce, you didn't have a choice.

Simlover123 (talk) 03:08, August 13, 2012 (UTC)

My turn

Alberto:1% unsual doesn`t mean retirement

Beryl: 10% rare may storm but not a lot of damage. it even help with th drought

Chris: 0% rare don`t earn retirement

Debby: 30% a lot of flood in Florida and tornadoes but no allison

Ernesto: 25% probable a cat 2 but no a lot of damage for Mexico standards

Florence:0% Meh... see you in 2018

Gordon:7% don`t know if he produced damge but if he did maybe not a lot May do some in the Azores

Helene:5% Fail even though you kill two people

Isaac:TBA

Joyce:0% FAIL!!! even Florence was better than you I pity storms like you.

Allanjeffs 20:41, August 18, 2012 (UTC)

Now that we've had a decent number of storms, I'll do mine. --HurricaneMaker99 16:44, August 26, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto: 0% - Gets points for the early kickoff, but if there was any impact, it was negligible.
 * Beryl: 10% - This storm was amazing to watch. Second pre-season storm for the first time in 104 years, second May storm for the first time in 125 years, strongest pre-season U.S. landfall on record, strongest pre-season storm in 42 years (Hurricane Alma 1970)... the fact that Beryl accomplished all of these meteorological achievements without ever becoming a hurricane makes it seem all the more badass. Impact, however, was fairly minor, even though the timing sucked.
 * Chris: 0% - Put on a freakshow in the far northern Atlantic, but didn't hurt anybody in the process.
 * Debby: 15% - I'm skeptical about the damage figure being as low as $42.5 million. Take a look at this. 28.78 inches of rain? Wow. With such a large area receiving 7+ inches of rain, I wouldn't necessarily expect retirement-worthy figures, but still.
 * Ernesto: 10% - Wasn't as bad as Arlene last year, if stronger.
 * Florence: 0% - Gets an F.
 * Gordon: 10% - It looks like the Azores made it out OK.
 * Helene: 2% - Looked very sickly when it made landfall in Mexico, so I doubt there's much damage there. I also doubt that the damage and 2 fatalities in Trinidad & Tobago will count since they were from the remnants of then-TD 7, but then they wouldn't be enough for retirement anyway.
 * Isaac: N/A - Still active, but I'm growing increasingly concerned about Mississippi.
 * Joyce: 0% - At least Florence was respectably strong.

Ryan grand has made his speech: Ryan1000 21:40, August 21, 2012 (UTC)
 * Alberto - 0% - Not exactly a fail because it formed 2 weeks ahead of schedule, but no (significant) impacts, so no retirement here.
 * Beryl - 5% - Beryl is somewhat credible for it's early formation and landfall, but impacts weren't too serious. In fact, it was helpful for relieving the drought in that part of the lower 48.
 * Chris - 0% - I gotta say, I'm impressed Chris managed to pull of a hurricane, but let's be serious here. It never hit land, so he won't be retired.
 * Debby - 20% - If the initial reports are underexaggerated, this might be a 30% instead. However, one thing's for sure - Debby was no Allison.
 * Ernesto - 10% - Ernie was much less than what I expected him to be, but although he hit as a hurricane and caused some impacts, in comparison to what Mexico has seen before (Alex, Karl) Ernesto doesn't stand a chance of retirement.
 * Florence - 0% - Little Flo didn't pack a blow...Yeah, she's the last original "F" name from the 1979-now lists (like Isaac is the last original "I" name), but sorry Flo, no chance of retirement. Better luck in 2018.
 * Gordon - 10% - It certainly caused some impacts in the Azores, but probrably not enough for retirement.
 * Helene - 5% - Very little impact.
 * Isaac - ?? - Too soon to tell for now, but I have bad feelings about this one...
 * Joyce - 0% - You have no choice Joyce. Try again in 2018.