Forum:2011 Pacific hurricane season/September

Aoi: South of Mexico
Models have this...10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure if any of these waves will develop. Pretty high shear and this wave is monsoonal and they need really good conditions to spin up. Yqt1001 15:43, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% 10%10L.NONAME 20:28, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * goneAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: 130 degrees west
...this one, too...10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Long GoneAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
No joke, 30%. 10Q.INVEST 18:08, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Actually only 10%, 30% is the other one. I'm so confused but I figured it out.CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:29, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 10%, looks better than 94E.10Q.INVEST 06:38, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: 110 Degrees West
...and also this one..10L.NONAME 23:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * and gone tooAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Near 140 degrees west
... and another one... 10L.NONAME 15:19, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

bye bye to you toAllanjeffs 00:45, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
No joke, 10%10Q.INVEST 18:05, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 30%. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:27, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Back to 10%10Q.INVEST 06:37, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now Near 0% chance. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:00, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: West of Mexico
This low pressure has been here for a couple of days, worth mentioning. It is at 20%.10Q.INVEST 02:12, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

...and gone.10Q.INVEST 19:24, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: South of Gulf of Tehuantepec
Granted 20%. 10Q.INVEST 01:27, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested. Looks like it has a decent shot a Hillary. Yqt1001 12:50, September 19, 2011 (UTC)

Finally we have something worth watching in EPac. It looks like it'll become a hurricane in the future... again. Ryan1000 20:09, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40% right now, and yeah a lot of models show a hurricane from this. Yqt1001 20:34, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * 50% now here comes HilaryAllanjeffs 23:57, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Unlike TD 8, this still has a lot of time to develop. I think this might get to hurricane strength, and I wonder where is YE right now. 10Q.INVEST 00:34, September 20, 2011 (UTC)

I would be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane. Models take it out to sea, could become a major there, but yeah, other than that, there's nothing else to it. It can't (and won't be able to) fill the massive ACE hole EPAC is under right now. Darren 23 Edits 00:56, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * Where in the world is YE? This is at 70% and it looks likely this storm will form soon. Yqt1001 20:05, September 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The ACE/storm in this EPac season actually isn't half bad, but overall ACE sucks. The AHS has an okay ACE for this time, but the ACE/storm could easily be the lowest since 2007. It only totals to about 5.15. Ryan1000 21:10, September 20, 2011 (UTC)

90%! Here comes Hilary/TD9! Yqt1001 23:35, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * I should wake up and see a TD in the morning.10Q.INVEST 23:41, September 20, 2011 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow, this becomes Tropical Depression Nine-E or Tropical Storm Hilary. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:41, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 9-E
Here we go! Expected to peak at a category 2 hurricane. Yqt1001 12:05, September 21, 2011 (UTC)


 * And I do wake up with a TD in the morning.10Q.INVEST 12:11, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilary
And it's already a TS. Yqt1001 19:00, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

Now forecast to peak as a C3. NOAA really screwed up the predictions of this year's EPac season in terms of intensities of storms. They forecasted only 5-8 hurricanes, and Hilary is already pretty much guranteed to be our 7th 'cane. If we get two more in October, then we will exceed that value. Furthermore, they forecasted only 1-3 majors, but we already had 3 Cat 4's and Hilary could be our 4th one. If that happens, then 2011 will have the record number of C4's in a non-El Nino year and pass that value. This year has been incredible for EPac. In terms of intensity forecasts, NOAA flipped ATL and EPac IMO. We only had 3 hurricanes thus far in ATL and September is almost over, let alone Ophelia probrably won't become a hurricane anyways, given the conditions ahead of her in the next few days and the long run. They forecasted we would have 7-10 hurricanes in ATL, but we need 4 more in the rest of September, October, and November to tie the lowest of that, and at least one major out of them, which I personally can't see happening at the rate we are going in ATL. Ryan1000 20:15, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * My peak is 140 knts. This storm reminds me of Rick for some reason. YE Tropical Cyclone  23:46, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Mine's 110 knts.10Q.INVEST 00:16, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think Hilary will be a C3, or the record breaking C4 of the season (most C4's in a non-El Nino year, breaking 1973, 1985, and 1995's record (correct me if I'm wrong)). Hurricane Andrew (444) 01:56, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Actually Andrew, we'd tie 1990's record of 4(they weren't El Nino, but rather neutral, following a strong La Nina in 1989). I'm thinking a 115-120 knot peak, but NHC is being conservative and saying a C2 over the next several days. Ryan1000 02:02, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's trying to form an eye!10Q.INVEST 02:37, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says that RI is possible. Yqt1001 02:57, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nearly a hurricane.... Hurricane Andrew (444) 10:38, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think it is a pin hole eye. TS's don't usually have eye's popping out in really deep convection. Yqt1001 12:11, September 22, 2011 (UTC)


 * EP, 09, 2011092212,, BEST, 0, 149N, 986W, 65, 994, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILARY, D Hillary becomes the 7 hurricane of 2011 Eastern pacific hurricane season Allanjeffs 12:42, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilary
Here we go! Yqt1001 19:04, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Yes!10Q.INVEST 20:34, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * 105mph winds now. Yqt1001
 * Not so fast everyone. Hilary has a chance to recurve back to Mexico in the long run. The NGFDL takes it into southern Baja as a pretty strong storm, but GFDL and HWRF take it into the area around Mazatlan in the next 5 days. The main difference is GFDL weakens Hilary to 60 knots by that time, and HWRF takes it making landfall in Mazatlan as a 185 mph(160 knot) monster. My point is, this storm isn't guranteed to be a fish and could turn back to hit Mexico as a very strong hurricane, so it may need to be watched carefully. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:47, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Happy Hillary may make people unhappy in Mexico. the main threat with this system is waves IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  22:55, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Hilary
'''...AND YET ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC... '''Yqt1001 23:40, September 22, 2011 (UTC)

OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. Wow. 10Q.INVEST 23:58, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Darn you, Yqt. I was going to post that!10Q.INVEST 23:56, September 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * HILARY IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
 * I could barely see the eye anymore. 10Q.INVEST 00:00, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Boom boom. Now at 110 kts from BTK. Looks like a C4 and an exploding one to me. My bet's on 150 kts as its peak. (coming from a really conservative forecaster) Darren 23 Edits 00:57, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hillary have a great shot of becoming a cat 5 Amazing Allanjeffs 01:15, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Is it time for the people of Mexico to worry?10Q.INVEST 01:17, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Haha, all the Dvorak estimates have, Scene Type: PINHOLE EYE on them. I'm kinda surprised at how liberal you are being Darren. Usually I'm liberal and I don't think it will get above 140kts. We'll see what happens though. Yqt1001 01:32, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * (I'm gonna be immature here) THIS IS INSANE. HILLARY LOOKS LIKE TWO OF MY THREE FAVORITE EPAC STORMS OF ALL TIME. THE CORE IS SO SYMMETRICAL JUST LIKE RICK AND SMALL LIKE JIMENA. IT LOOKS LIKE A cAT 5 ON IMAGERY. THIS IS SO AMAZING. CANT WAIT FOR THE adv. YE Tropical Cyclone
 * Now Cat. 4 with 135 winds. This is what NHC said:
 * HILARY IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE. IT HAS DEVELOPED A

DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE   AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS. IN FACT...LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD BE EVEN STRONGER 10Q.INVEST 02:45, September 23, 2011 (UTC)

135mph winds now! She isn't stopping! Yqt1001 02:44, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * Aside of epic fail Fernanda and ill-fated Eight-E that's quite an impressive season: all named storms except one became hurricanes, and for of them category 4 monsters. The question is wether Hilary can top Dora or not. Beyond that, we'll see what Hilary will do later on, maybe turning to northern Baja and perhaps some rain into Arizona, New Mexico and Western Texas? --88.102.101.245 09:37, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * TS warnings canceled...now we have to wait 6 hours for updates. :/ Yqt1001 19:07, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * ( We could wait.10Q.INVEST 19:47, September 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * I had a feeling this bitch was going to take off last night. It was tiny as f**k, in extremely low shear and in boiling hot SST's. This storm isn't done strengthening though, and given the current intensity, we probrably will see a C5 out of her tomorrow or this evening. It's still not out of the question Hilary could affect land, so don't let your guard down. Despite Hilary's extreme intensity, she has such a small wind field that TS force winds aren't even being felt in southern Mexico less than 100 miles away. That's why the warnings were discontinued(temporarily). Stay tuned. Ryan1000 20:16, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * 145 mph winds! Hilary is tied with Adrian as the the third strongest storm of the year, behind Dora and Eugene. I see a C5 in the distance.
 * Another thing worth saying is now 2011 ties 1990 with the record number of C4's in a non-El Nino year (1990 had Hernan, Marie, Odile, and Trudy). Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:12, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * For me Hilary is now a cat 5 in my opinion and i can be correctAllanjeffs 00:20, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It still has today and tomorrow to become a C5 until it sucumbs to colder waters and unfavorable shear, so C5 definitely isn't out of the question. Ryan1000 02:13, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * That's going to be harder now. Still at 145 mph. 10Q.INVEST 02:59, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Weakening, 140mph, Not sure if this is because of an ERC or sdomething else. Yqt1001 14:47, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hilary is running into some shear now, but it still is pretty well-organized, and the conditions out to sea may become more unfavorable, but I'd still expect Hilary to remain a C3 until, say 2 days from now. It's really contributing to the ACE, as Adrian, Dora and Eugene did. Ryan1000 19:16, September 24, 2011 (UTC)

Down to 135mph winds at 5pm. She probably has reached her peak. Yqt1001 20:58, September 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still a 115 kn – she' s boosting the season's overall ACE. Hilarious! --88.102.101.245 00:08, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * The ACE/storm this year is just incredible; It could've been much lower than where it's going now, but NOAA really screwed up this year's predictions. Only 1-3 major hurricanes? We've already got 4 C4's and I wouldn't be surprised if we get one more in October. We've had 7 hurricanes, and if we get one more, we'll tie the highest ammount they predicted. However, only 8 named storms. So few storms, so many hurricanes. Ryan1000 00:51, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC sounds bored. "ALMOST EVERYTHING ABOUT HURRICANE HILARY HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID. THE HURRICANE IS SMALL AND INTENSE AND BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES CONTINUES WITH 115 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT AT THIS TIME" Yqt1001 02:42, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hilary is holding together nicely in this shear, and will probrably remain over 100 mph until Tuesday, when it starts to recurve northward, as a weakening hurricane or TS, towards Baja California. Ryan1000 18:09, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's gonna hit Mexico soon, which will going to boost the retirement chances. 10Q.INVEST 02:17, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * There is a chance Hilary will head towards southern California as a tropical storm or depression, or at least a remnant low, but i'm not expecting too many direct impacts from a hurricane like this. Anyhow, it's really ACEing it(18.8 as of now) and the ACE/storm thus far is about 9. Pretty high for EPac, and following what I said earlier in my blog post. Ryan1000 04:14, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hilary isn't over yet! Category 4 again. Yqt1001 20:45, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hm! This thing doesn't want to give up so easily, now does she? It may, by chance, reach southern California as a TS, but it probrably won't be so severe by the time it does reach there or northern Mexico. It's really contributing to the ACE though. Ryan1000 21:45, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to C3, but Hilary's ACE is incredible (nearly 27 ACE units).

Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:19, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Hilary (2nd time)
Major hurricane for 5 days. Wow. 110mph right now. Yqt1001 21:46, September 27, 2011 (UTC)

Finally it's a non-major, but it made enough of an ACE to kick this season up big time. BTW, what's wrong with Ophelia in the active storms header? It says (page does not exist). Is the extra "season" causing that? (My computer won't let me edit that table for some reason). Ryan1000 23:13, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Fixed now. The link was spelt wrong. 4 storms formed that day so I must've been really tired of editing. Yqt1001 23:38, September 27, 2011 (UTC)


 * yeah it help with the Ace but even with hilary the pacific is below normal meanwhile the atlantic is near normal Allanjeffs 00:00, September 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic has only half the ACE/storm of EPac, because although both basins have pretty much the same ACE, EPac did theirs with half the number of named storms, which is quite incredible. Atlantic is in a huge ACE/storm hole, while EPac's ACE/storm is already on par for 5th or 6th highest ever, with 1995(and counting). Ryan1000 03:27, September 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now with 90 MPH winds. 10Q.INVEST 12:03, September 28, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hilary (2nd time)
now a tropical storm finallyAllanjeffs 02:54, September 29, 2011 (UTC)

Hilary put on quite a show. An ACE of over 30 is nothing to neglect in EPac, especially in the hardtimes they've had these days. Ryan1000 20:12, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * And Hilary is slowly fading away...expected to become post-tropical tomorrow. Yqt1001 20:40, September 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still here.10Q.INVEST 03:06, September 30, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Hilary
And it's going..... Yqt1001 12:35, September 30, 2011 (UTC)

going, going...10Q.INVEST 20:34, September 30, 2011 (UTC)

Remnants of Hilary
...gone.10Q.INVEST 20:35, September 30, 2011 (UTC)

Well, there goes the fourth amazing C4 of the year. Hurricane Andrew (444) 23:05, September 30, 2011 (UTC)