Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season/June

AoI: Vigorous wave off Africa
I know it's too early for Cape Verde, but I have the NHC to back me up. Check out this loop. See that large wave with a hint of rotation? The NHC did. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W APPEAR TO BE WITH A SQUALL LINE AWAY FROM THE AFRICA COAST. THIS SQUALL LINE IS SUPPOSED TO BE PRECEDING A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PUT ON THE 03/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS ALONG 12W. LET US WAIT A LITTLE BIT LONGER AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS FEATURE. (from TWD) could this mean they're expecting something? Just something to possibly watch. Cyclone1 (18:53 UTC -5/06/2007)
 * Definitely no Surface low though. Also, it appears to be disintegrating. I think this will be a big Cape Verde year though. This is a much better page for Cape Verde, for everyone's reference (Since no one but me seems to know). -Winter123 00:33, 6 June 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the NHC isn't showing any interest anymore. Cyclone1 (02:42 UTC -6/06/2007)


 * Another one 0_o - -17:55, 9 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy crap! This one looks much better! It's mentioned int the TWD. Well defined low, but convection has diminished a little. If it can hold out till about 35W, I bet we'd see an INVEST. Cyclone1 (18:41 UTC -9/06/2007)

Not a wave anymore it's a tropical low. Cyclone1 (18:55 UTC -9/06/2007)


 * Pretty impressive. It would be more interesting in August. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 19:12, 9 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Actually, I think it's more interesting in early June, because we usually don't see lows like this until August, when they are pretty mainstream. Cyclone1 (20:27 UTC -9/06/2007)

It's in the TWO. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF WEST AFRICA...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL... AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. That says it all. It's gonna have to wait for now. Cyclone1 (21:10 UTC -9/06/2007)


 * I'm more interested in the area north of Panama. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 23:00, 9 June 2007 (UTC)
 * The models don't do much with that area, so I wouldn't be concerned with that blob right now, but our wave is looking great now that it's an INVEST. Cyclone1 (01:16 UTC -10/06/2007)

93L.INVEST
It's an INVEST now! And may I say, it's looking very impressive! Cape Verde is raring to go, and this season is just getting started! Cyclone1 (01:16 UTC -10/06/2007)


 * Ok I have to say it. WTF IS GOING ON!!!  A cat 5 cyclone in the Arabian sea and now an invest off the coast of Africa on June 9. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 01:38, 10 June 2007 (UTC)
 * Not to mention a preseason storm. Cyclone1 (03:16 UTC -10/06/2007)
 * Wow, that's looking extremely impressive! I sense another strange year ahead. Bob rulz 03:22, 10 June 2007 (UTC)

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING... AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. So, maybe a depression tomorrow, maybe a storm. Either way, this storm seems to have an ill fate. But still, third storm by June 10? WTF?! Cyclone1 (03:27 UTC -10/06/2007)


 * It looks more tropical that Andrea or Barry ever did IMO. ---CWY2190talkcontribs 03:43, 10 June 2007 (UTC)


 * That's one thing I think we can all agree on. Wow, I can't get over how organized this thing is. Cyclone1 (03:48 UTC -10/06/2007)


 * I'm just glad this is not in the Caribbean in September. So impressive looking for not being a TD.---CWY2190talkcontribs 04:07, 10 June 2007 (UTC)


 * I'm surprised it's NOT a TD. There must be some discrepancy in the NHC whether this is possible or not, just like how they couldn't name that STS North of Bermuda last year, for some reason. Isn't the earliest Cape Verde storm July 4th? Also, note how ridiculously far south this is. 7.5N!! I say name it a TD at least so it's not forgotten in the pages of history.


 * Also, take a look at this. Things were very favorable over the Cat 5 and very favorable over Africa, but unfavorable conditions are moving towards this weak cyclone. If it's going to develop, it better do it fast. -Winter123 05:24, 10 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Maybe the fact that the WindSat sensor has been offline since Friday AM accounts for the reluctance to name it a TD? 4.152.3.51 20:19, 10 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Right now, this INVEST (if it even does develop, I hardly believe it's even this well organized) has a chance to be the earliest Cape Verde system, but earliest third storm? Not a good chance. It's got a better chance of usurping the second placer (the Escuminac Hurricane of 1959 formed on June 18th) than of dethroning the champion (1887, formed on the 12th of June). Jake52 My own private island 06:40, 10 June 2007 (UTC)

This system is rapidly losing convection. It's fast losing its golden chance to form. Cyclone1 (14:43 UTC -10/06/2007)


 * Yep, it's lost its definition. It's not forming anytime soon, but it's not really dissipating either. Maybe when (if) it gets closer to the Caribbean, then it might flare back up. Cyclone1 (18:57 UTC -10/06/2007)

Various statistics
I've done a little research and compared the 2005-2007 seasons first five INVESTs, depressions and named storms by date of INVEST formation.

2006 includes the unnamed storm as 2nd storm.

DATE DECLARED INVEST STORM          2005            2006            2007 90L INVEST   JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08 91L INVEST   JUNE 09         JUNE 23          MAY 18 92L INVEST   JUNE 13         JUNE 24          MAY 31 93L INVEST   JUNE 15         JUNE 25         JUNE 09 94L INVEST   JUNE 24         JUNE 29         JUNE 14

FIRST DEPR   JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08 SECND DEPR   JUNE 28        NO INVEST         MAY 31 THIRD DEPR   JULY 03         JULY 17 FOURTH DEP   JULY 04         JULY 27 FIFTH DEPR   JULY 09        AUGUST 21

FIRST STORM  JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08 SECND STORM  JUNE 28        NO INVEST         MAY 31 THIRD STORM  JULY 03         JULY 17 FOURTH STRM  JULY 04         JULY 27 FIFTH STORM  JULY 09        AUGUST 21

AT THE FIRST 93L.INVEST...

2005 (JUNE 13) HAD ONE ATLANTIC CYCLONE AND ONE EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONE 2006 (JUNE 25) HAD ONE ATLANTIC CYCLONE AND TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES 2007 (JUNE 09) HAD TWO ATLANTIC CYCLONES AND TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES

AT JUNE 9...

2005 HAD ONE ATLANTIC CYCLONE AND ONE EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONE 2006 HAD NO ATLANTIC CYCLONES AND TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES 2007 HAD TWO ATLANTIC CYCLONES AND TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES

AT THE THIRD NAMED ATLANTIC STORM...

2005 HAD 8 ATLANTIC INVESTS (97L BECAME DENNIS*) AND FOUR EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES 2006 HAD 8 ATLANTIC INVESTS (97L BECAME BERYL*) AND FIVE EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES 2007 HAD ? ATLANTIC INVESTS (CURRENTLY FOUR) AND ? EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES (CURRENTLY TWO)

– NSLE 07:16, 10 June 2007 (UTC)
 * 96L BECAME CINDY BUT 97L FORMED BEFORE CINDY WAS NAMED
 * COUNTS THE UNNAMED STORM


 * Nice research! Where did you find records of old 2005 INVESTS? Somehwere on the NRL? And also, it looks like 2007 is winning. Cyclone1 (14:43 UTC -10/06/2007)


 * Oh wow. We're AHEAD of the game this year?? Should fall back to normal though, unless we get some June cape verdes, which appears a possibility... -Winter123 04:03, 11 June 2007 (UTC)


 * We're one named storm ahead of 2005 now, if we get another storm before July 5 (when Cindy was named) we'll remain at least tied with 05. Cyclone1 (16:15 UTC -11/06/2007)


 * That seems suprisingly likely right now. Cryomaniac 15:30, 12 June 2007 (UTC)

I'm starting to doubt that, nothing is going on ANYWHERE in the entire ocean. Oh sure, they're talking about a barely noticable blob in the Caribbean over at Storm2k. I guess they're bored, too. I'm close to making that an AoI strictly to give us something to talk about. I might have to if it gets more organized. It's been trying to get its act together for a while. And there's that large blob northeast of the Bahamas, but pressures are really high and it's purely non-tropical. No waves, maybe the ITCZ will throw something at us soon. But now I'm rambling. Cyclone1 (02:58 UTC -14/06/2007) 02:58, 14 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Nevermind. Cyclone1 (22:37 UTC -14/06/2007)

AoI: Low forming in the NW Caribbean
You knew it was coming. It's just something to possibly watch.

From the TWO. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 

If the upper level winds lighten up, then this will be watchable. Cyclone1 (17:43 UTC -14/06/2007)


 * Sheer should clear up by tomorrow if this thing doesn't move very far. (second panel) Cyclone1 (17:59 UTC -14/06/2007)


 * Yeah, 86W/17N is the spot to watch for weekend development. -Winter123 18:09, 14 June 2007 (UTC)


 * TWD says it's drifting north slowly. That means it's moving into more favorable conditions. 0_o (and it means I might finally get some rain.) Cyclone1 (18:18 UTC -14/06/2007)


 * It seems quite likely that this system will become 94L. It's quickly becoming better organized, and the majority of the models are hinting at it developing further into a Tropical Depression. We'll just have to wait and see. 71.7.209.70 21:54, 14 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Sweet! We need the rain here in Florida (still). And do you have the link for those models, please? Cyclone1 (22:13 UTC -14/06/2007)

94L.INVEST
Well, it's official. We now have 94L. Also, fifth INVEST of the year? What is going on? Cainer91 00:39, 15 June 2007 (UTC)
 * If this forms, looks like it could be the third storm in a row to effect Florida. Cyclone1 (00:50 UTC -15/06/2007)

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM FRIDAY AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. Cyclone1 (03:49 UTC -15/06/2007)


 * Recon cancelled. Cyclone1 (17:20 UTC -15/06/2007)


 * I wouldn't give up on this storm just yet, though. Looking at the WV loop, you can clearly see the LLC is still in place near the Yucatan, and convection is blowing up recently, steadily closer and closer to the LLC. Ok, now someone else talk. Cyclone1 (17:40 UTC -15/06/2007)


 * The chances of this thing gaining any organization in the next 12-24 hours are not good. However, with shear expected to weaked somewhat on Sunday, we could still see something forming, however it's very unlikely it will ever reach tropical storm strength. Cainer91 18:24, 15 June 2007 (UTC)

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT OCCURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  So the NHC's not exactly counting it out anymore. Last TWO they said it wasn't going to form, this one says slow development is possible. ANd it's looking a lot more convective. Cyclone1 (21:22 UTC -15/06/2007)

It appears as if 94L is trying to form a surface low. You can make out the spin here, just east of the Yucatan. There are a lot of factors against development, like the large amounts of dry air in the Gulf and the high shear. If the low can wrap some convection around it's centre, however, we may have something to deal with by the time shear relaxes. All we can do is wait. Cainer91 04:27, 16 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, the only convection that seems to be associated with 94L (very little) is near the center, so that's ... better, I guess. Maybe if we have a blow up of convection today (which isn't that unlikely) it'll be closer to the center. Cyclone1 (14:11 UTC -16/06/2007)


 * Uh... it sorta switched to the one in the Bahamas without changing names. Still unlikely to form. (By the way does anybody other than Canier91 and I come here anymore?) Cyclone1 (21:23 UTC -16/06/2007)


 * I'm here too =). This season seems pretty odd so far, so I'm not going to count anything out. Cryomaniac 21:50, 16 June 2007 (UTC)


 * True, Andrea was nearly a month ahead of schedule and Barry formed in the middle of horrendous conditions, out of basically nothing. Also, convection is flaring up in the Caribbean, maybe the previous low will reformand gives us something to talk about, until then, wake me up when September ends. Err, starts... Cyclone1 (00:01 UTC -17/06/2007)


 * I'm here as well. Just silently watching until I have something significant to say.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 23:32, 17 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Anyone see the blob and LLC south of Bermuda? -Winter123 05:53, 18 June 2007 (UTC)

I noticed that, but I don't see anything forming out of this... in the short term. Cyclone1 (15:47 UTC -18/06/2007)

AoI: Cold Front pushing off the East Coast
Current picture,. There is a low deepening near the southern boundray of the front, and various models are predicting a weak low to develop on the Gulf Stream. Shear is expected to be ~20-30 knots, so if anything does develop it will most likely be non-tropical or subtropical. It's worth watching, in any case. Also, current shear:. Cainer91 20:19, 20 June 2007 (UTC)


 * I've been discussing this over at Storm2k for a while and it is interesting. Personally, I think its has a chance to become fully tropical. Cyclone1 (20:31 UTC -20/06/2007)


 * And it's not a cold front, its a sfc low. satellite/radar image. (imageshacked) Cyclone1 (20:36 UTC -20/06/2007)


 * It sure is a SFC Low. Look at this . It already looks quite healthy, and it's not even off the coast yet. I sense 95L in the making.


 * 10 bucks says 95L tomorrow. Cyclone1 (21:42 UTC -20/06/2007)

I guess I lose 10 bucks. Stil forecast to cross into the Gulf soon, but I don't see anything happening when it does that... Cyclone1 (12:01 UTC -21/06/2007)


 * It IS tropical, just moving over land and has no time to strengthen. It's a shame, this looks good. -Winter123 16:56, 21 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, we still have that Carib wave. I'm not making it an AOI though, because the second I do, it'll dissipate. So anyone else feel free. Cyclone1 (19:05 UTC -21/06/2007)

Looking much better recently! Let's not count this out. Cyclone1 (01:28 UTC -22/06/2007)


 * OMG, we might have two storms by the beginning of next week. The Low East of Florida has a defined LLC, COnvection over the center, and is moving SE. And... -Winter123 04:13, 22 June 2007 (UTC)

Poof. Cyclone1 (22:13 UTC -23/06/2007)

AoI: Wave east of Nicaragua
Well, I wasn't expecting anything to arise from this, but it has been getting better organized thoughout the day. Shear is rather unhealthy, ~20-30 knots, but not unmanageable. There seems to be some rotation in the mid to high levels, but nothing at the surface at the moment. It's forecast to drift into Central America, so if it wants to develop, it better do it soon. Here's a recent picture of the wave: Cainer91 19:39, 21 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Actually, if you look at a loop of this, it appears to be going, not only NW, but NNW. Looks like it could miss Central America completely. Sheer is weakening as we speak. I'm not betting money though, I already lost 10 bucks to that FL low this morning. Cyclone1 (19:58 UTC -21/06/2007)


 * ...This blob has a mid-level low under convection moving NW towards the tip of the Yucatan and into the gulf! Cyclone1, I will redeem you by betting money that both of these will have been named by Wednesday of next week. Well, TD's at least. -Winter123 04:15, 22 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Not trying to be the Devil's advocate here, but I have my doubts that this thing will ever form. Shear isn't great, and it's quite close to land... But, stranger things have happened, so you never know. Cainer91 04:52, 22 June 2007 (UTC)


 * Recent convection popping up. Cyclone1 (16:41 UTC -22/06/2007)

Poof. Cyclone1 (22:13 UTC -23/06/2007)

95L.INVEST
Off the southwest Florida coast. Low chance of development, but hey we'll see. Cyclone1 (17:25 UTC -29/06/2007)
 * Well, since no one's said anything, I guess I'll talk again. It's not forming, simple as that. Nothing from 95. Cyclone1 (03:21 UTC -1/07/2007)