Forum:2014 Pacific hurricane season

Future Start
I'll make my worldwide predictions later. EPac's betting pools are here. Ryan1000 01:07, October 28, 2013 (UTC)

Here are my predictions for the Eastern Pacific:

21 tropical depressions, 21 tropical storms, 18 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 274 (give or take 10).

A visual of my prediction can be found here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:49, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Geez Andrew, that's a little too wild, don't you think? Here's my predictions: 20 depressions, 18 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. An incoming El Nino could make the EPac heat up a bit, but 10 majors and 18 hurricanes seem very unlikely IMO.  Steven  09876  ✉  05:24, January 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Expectations are rising as there is a potential El Nino bruing that could be exceptionally strong, or it could just flame out just like 2012. However, based on Levi Cowen's predication and analog years for the ATL (they ere 1957, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1991, 1994, 2002, 2009 I believe). In all of those season, something really special happened (most bland out of all those seasons was 1991, and that was during a true PDO+ era). I've also seen 1974 and 2011 listed as anologs if the El Nino does not pan out based on the US winter pattern and global weather pattern overall. And both 74 and 11 are seasons that are memorable. I haven't seen any formal predictions though last month I went with 18-8-5, but may revise that to 18-7-6. YE Tropical Cyclone  05:54, March 15, 2014 (UTC)

12 more days till season starts! An El Nino could make this season extremely active, so prepare guys.  Steve  820  ✉   20:58, May 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * And the season has officially began!! The potentially very active Pacific season starts now! This is just the beginning of what might be a wild season (or should I say, a rollarcoaster ride!)  Steve  820  ✉   00:14, May 16, 2014 (UTC)

Pre-season predictions
About five weeks from the start, and with the formation of an El Nino, exceptions have risen a bit. Right now, the WPAC and SPAc are active as well. Really second half of SHEM has been quite impressive. Let's get some formal predictions going. YE Tropical Cyclone  17:08, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Maintaining my forecast from above. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:34, April 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lol, your NS count looks realistic, but you're cane and MH count is a bit high IMO. YE Tropical Cyclone  20:42, April 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * El Niño looks to be the most powerful since 1997 I will put my odds at 20 to 23 ts 10 hurricanes and 6 to 8 majors. It may seem a really high prediction but with the upcoming strong El Niño might prediction well occur.Allanjeffs 01:08, April 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Because of what appears to be an extreme El Nino coming in, I'm revising my predictions to 20-24 named storms, 9-13 hurricanes and 4-7 majors. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a record-breaking season this year, possibly on the level of 1992.  Steve  820  ✉   03:36, April 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * My predictions have been updated in my last blog post here. I'm thinking below normal ATL, above-normal EPac and WPac, and near-normal elsewhere. Ryan1000 19:48, April 11, 2014 (UTC)

September
Hi new month. YE Pacific Hurricane  05:35, September 1, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Lowell
This has got to be the longest lasting piece of crap floating in the middle of nowhere, tied with Guillermo 07 and Fausto 02. Halfway to Alaska. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  02:06, September 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * What is Lowell up to now? He doesn't want to die, apparently. Not sure what Alaska's going to see from this. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:11, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Tropical Wave
Likely a part of a tropical wave that spawned 97L. It should form despite next to no model support. 0/20. YE Pacific Hurricane  00:17, August 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Any development is going to be slow from the AOI. If it does come, I want it to be a hurricane due to the success Norbert has had over his EPAC career. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:53, August 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * A hurricane is possible as shown by NOGAPS, but not likely. 10/50. YE Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:24, August 31, 2014 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
The AOI has been invested. It's rather disorganized right now, and it doesn't appear to have the luxury Marie did. Anyway, chances of development are now at 20% for the next two days and 60% for the next five. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:29, September 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * It has very low shear and very high SST's. LGEM and SHIPS brings this into the gulf, which are currently the warmest SST's in the world. NOGAPS and HWRF make this strong, with the NOGAPS have it passing W of Baja and the HWRF brings it near or over Baja but bombs it out in the GOC. CMC and the ECMWF keep it a TS but is like NOGAPS in tracks, while GFS does not do much with it. This is either going to be a win for NOGAPS/HWRF or GFS/GFDL. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:45, September 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * I'd love to see the NOGAPS scenario verify. Anyway, chances of formation are now at 70% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  09:31, September 1, 2014 (UTC)

Come on, Ridgeback! FORM!!! :) I'm sure he will. “i liek turtlez 14:39, September 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Consensus is clear on what is going to happen. A TS or weak hurricane will form, pass near Cabo, turn W, then NNE, and hit the Central part of the peninsula. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  16:38, September 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * I want this to form into Norbert and become a hurricane if it can! Currently 20/80. 93E, you can do it! :)--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 23:20, September 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 30/80. Models in fantastic agreement on it missing the southern tip, but a landfall in central Baja, YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:06, September 2, 2014 (UTC)

If this becomes a hurricane, we'll have the longest consecutive streak of Pacific hurricanes ever, surpassing 1993's record of 7 (which 2014 currently ties), but don't expect it to get past cat 2 intensity or so, as it heads northwest then north towards Baja. Ryan1000 02:51, September 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Should become Norbert anytime now...100/100. Ryan1000 11:46, September 2, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Norbert
Here. No watches or warnings. Only 50 knt peak, so the hurricane streak is forecast to end. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:48, September 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Oh well...I won't be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane, but I still hope for at least a minimal cat 1 before dying. This is nearly 5 weeks before the typical formation date of an EPac season's 14th storm. Ryan1000 20:15, September 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * I also won't be surprised if it doesn't become a hurricane, but I have a slight gut feeling that it will peak as probably a minimal C1. I hope that hurricane streak will end!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 22:35, September 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Why? You don't want to see a new record for most hurricanes in a row? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:03, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * On second thought...maybe it will. Norbert has organized quite a bit in the latest frames, now the forecast does call for a cat 1, though still remaining offshore. Hopefully it doesn't get too close for comfort with Baja. Ryan1000 03:28, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) YE, I've just been getting a bit tired of all the hurricanes, that's why. Though I would also like to see the record being broken.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:29, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steve, yea, but I'd still rather see a hurricane than a tropical storm. LAtesat 18z GFS it out; big shift north. This is starting to remind me of Paul 12 with the E shifts. Yesterday, I was confident on an OTS track, but now it is bring memories back of many other Baja TC's. However, I stress that this is only one run, and things can chance back W easily. BTW, this thing is up to 40 knts. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:41, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, I'm pretty sure this will be a hurricane now. 60 mph according to latest advisory, and forecast to remain a hurricane for some time. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for much of southern Baja, but Norbert is expected to remain offshore and will do so if current trends continue. Ryan1000 10:20, September 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now 70 mph...almost there. If the current late forecast track with this verifies from NHC, it might even threaten southern California in the long run. Ryan1000 22:54, September 3, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Norbert
8 hurricanes in a row! New record! YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:58, September 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dude, you beat me by a few minutes. Anyways looks like it finally became a hurricane! Congrats, Norbert, for breaking that record! 8 hurricanes in a row...that's pretty insane. The EPac never wants to take a break from producing all the hurricanes!--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:02, September 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Good boy, Norbert, keep up the good work (as long as you stay away from land, of course)! With the latest intermediate advisory, Norbert's reputation for consistently reaching hurricane strength each time it was used remains intact. It'd be cool if we could extend that record to 9, but the next name, Odile, is female, and we could use a break from the girls constantly beating the guys :P (Julio currently stands as the only male major out of six total, and even that was the only one so far not to become a Category 4. We'll see if Norbert changes that. It's currently forecast to peak at 90 kts, but given the NHC's low bias, I wouldn't be surprised if Norbert becomes a 3 or, if it pulls an Amanda/Cristina, a 4. I'd love to see Norbert reach 120 kts and become the name's strongest incarnation to date, just like what happened with Cristina, Genevieve, Iselle, Julio, Karina and, most notably, Marie.) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:17, September 4, 2014 (UTC)


 * The EPAC is on fire right now! leeboy100 (talk) 00:11, September 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Flooding and surf for southern Baja will probably not be too severe so long as Norbert remains offshore. I expect Norbert to become a cat 2 at its peak, though it could pull a 3 if it strengthens quick enough. Also, to be a little more specific about what I said before for Norbert forming nearly 5 weeks before the EPac's typical 14th storm...Norbert marked the 3rd earliest date for the "N" storm to form in the Eastern Pacific, after Newton '92 and Nora '85. Nanette '71 and Narda '89 came pretty damn close though. Ryan1000 19:54, September 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like Norbert will peak where it is now (80 kt/970 mbar)... meaning that Julio remains the only male storm so far this EPAC season to exceed C1 intensity. This is getting a tad irritating :/ Oh, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for a portion of Baja's west coast. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:55, September 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's off the shore of Baja but it might cause some damage as it's very close leeboy100 (talk) 11:00, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * The core should remain offshore, but heavy rains will fall over the sparsely populated area. The big question is in 3 days, does it stall or turn north. I'd lean towards the former. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:25, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Uh oh, Norbert's getting a little too close for comfort for the folks in western Baja. Looks like it won't go without impact after all, especially if it keeps stalling at this rate. I doubt it will become much stronger than where it is now, but intensity doesn't really matter when a storm like this could cause very severe flooding due to its slow movement. Ryan1000 17:51, September 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Question: how the heck can Norbert only have 80 kt winds when the pressure is as low as 966 mbar, which normally supports a strong Category 2 or weak Category 3? It's not unheard of in the Atlantic (Cristobal, Isaac, etc.) but I've never seen it happen in the EPAC before. Larger storms need lower pressures to generate higher winds (Lowell and Isaac being examples), but Norbert isn't even that big. For a point of comparison: when Julio's pressure was where Norbert's is now, it was a 100 kt major hurricane. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:01, September 5, 2014 (UTC)


 * Reading wunderground* "966 MB and 90 MPH winds"  WHAT!?!?!?!?!?!? Dylan you might be right, I haven't seen this happen in the EPAC either. The WPAC and the Atlantic, yes, but not EPAC. Then again this season has actually pulled some surprises. *cough* Amanda, Marie ,Genny, and Iselle *cough*
 * leeboy100 (talk) 22:52, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * In response to your edit summary, Leeboy: my post was untouched, so don't worry :) Anyway, Norbert's a Category 2 now, 85 kts/963 mbar. Very low pressures... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:53, September 5, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yep, those pressures look unusually low for a storm that strength. Pretty rare for the EPac! And it looks like it finally became a C2, congrats Norbert! :) (Also, looking at the forecast track it would look like a potential threat to SoCal as a remnant low in the long run) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:01, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * The lower pressures are likely due to the warm PDO if I had to make a guess. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:16, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whoa whoa whoa, ATCF has Norbert up to 95 kt/961 mbar. This thing is bombing, and it's way too close to the Baja coast to do so comfortably. I take back what I said; this is not how I wanted our next male major :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:04, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I'd just like to mention that I somehow managed to edit conflict with myself while I was posting the above comment... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:15, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * This could actually be bad..........................  leeboy100 (talk) 01:28, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * The ec with myself have been happening to me too. And the core is still a bit offshore Baja, and this part of Baja, very few people live. It's a small hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:46, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Winds are now at 110 MPH......not good :0  leeboy100 (talk) 04:17, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Norbert
Norbert is now the 7th major hurricane of the season and hurricane force winds are affect baja california sur from what I am seeing. Allanjeffs 05:57, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, it looks like Norbert did pull a major off. This makes the 1990 Norbert the only Norbert to not become a major hurricane, and we now have 7 majors. This season needs 3 more majors to tie the record set in 1992, and two more cat 4's to tie the record of 7 held by 1992 and 1993. I guess there is a possibility we could set (or tie) a record or two this year. I was a bit skeptical that this season could do it at first, but now I guess there's a distinct possibility of it happening. Ryan1000 11:38, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, I wanted a hurricane from Norbert, and he gave me a major. Winds are at 105 knots (120 mph, 195 km/h) with a pressure of 957 mbar (hPa; 28.26 inHg). Julio's reign as the strongest male EPAC name of this season is over, and it looks like the males want revenge. >:) Norbert's accomplishment also marks the earliest date for an EPAC's seventh major since Jova in 1993. Anyway, a good chunk of Baja California is under TS warnings, namely between Santa Fe and Punta Eugenia. Gale-force winds and swells are going to be a slight problem for the next few days, but rainfall of potentially 10 inches might be the bad news for Baja. Also, since Norbert's eyewall has become a little less distinct, so he may not make it to C4 strength this time around. :( Pathwise, a ridge should keep the hurricane offshore for another couple of days before a trough hurls the remnants back at Baja. This will take Norbert into decreasing SST's, prompting the NHC to forecast degeneration into a remnant low in roughly three days. I'm pretty surprised the hurricane made it this far up, I was only expecting a minor hurricane at most. As a side note, may I ask why Norbert is so attracted to Baja California? Every one of his incarnations to date, minus his 1990 predesscor, has in some form affected the region. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:06, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

Welcome to Educating Norbert. Norbert is a new student here at Frederick Bremer school and is caught sneaking out of class with six other students. They are all placed in isolation. “i liek turtlez 15:19, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow I didn't expect that Norbert would become a major! But it now looks like it's peaking. Baja looks like it's getting pounded from this and it is forecasted to make landfall in northern Baja as a remnant low, so maybe SoCal won't get anything I guess? And Liz you're so funny XD --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:18, September 6, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Norbert (2nd time)
What a difference a day makes... I'm surprised no one has posted any updates on Norbert since its reign as a major hurricane ended, but it is currently a 50 kt/994 mbar tropical storm and fading fast. Hats off to you, Norbert, you were a great storm to track. Hopefully the effects weren't that bad. P.S.: Does anyone remember The Angry Beavers? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:13, September 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * Still 50 kts (60 mph) and 994 mbars, it might die out by tomorrow. Also there's thunderstorm clouds located out east from where I live and they might come here, could they be associated with Norbert? I hope we get some rain since we're in a huge drought at this moment! And I agree, it was a great storm to track. I don't remember "The Angry Beavers", because when it originally aired I was too young to really watch TV (apparently its original run was 1997-2001) and I don't really watch TV that much anyways.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:29, September 7, 2014 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert
And it's dead. It'll still cause potential flooding rains for parts of upper Baja over the next day or two though. Ryan1000 10:05, September 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Extreme flooding in Arizona.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:09, September 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sucks for them. Over here in SoCal we're also getting some rain showers but nothing too bad. And its possibly associated with Norbert.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:25, September 9, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Euro system #1
0/50. Will likely be another system, but not too strong. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:13, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * Marie and Norbert have stolen all the good conditions. I definitely want something decent from this, too. However, only gradual development is expected from the NHC, so it may be a struggle for the AOI to become our eighth major. P.S. This is my 4,000th edit on this wiki; I have enjoyed posting on these forums for the past three years! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:10, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * We already have a record 8 consecutive hurricanes, it'd be even better if we can extend that to 9 this year, though if this becomes a hurricane, don't expect it to become a strong one. Nor do I want it to be a major, the female names are stealing all the ACE this year, and Odile is next on the list. :/ Ryan1000 18:51, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * I hope that if it becomes Odile, it remains a TS because we need a female name to fail for once! The EPac is getting crazy with hurricanes and it would be nice if we got a break from them! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:20, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Don't you enjoy hurricanes though? Isn't that why we are here? I'd rather see males be stronger than females, but in the end, ill take a major every day and twice on Sundays. FTR, Elida was a fail and was female. From a meteorological prospective, models have backed off of this quite a bit. They were blowing this up quite a bit earlier, now barley develop it. Track is set for the next 10 days. It should form around 110-115W, meander, then drift NNE to NE, and then it'll either move onshore or having it moving W. Shear will be a serious issue however, it seems, as that is why the GFS likely keeps it broad and unorganized. Even the HWRF doesn't do much with it until landfall. Right now, the area where it is expected to form is very hostile, with strong shear and a ton of dry air. It is worth noting though that models have struggled with shear all season (which in terms of intensity and track, have taken a major set back this season). According to Ventrice's site, We do have a Kelvin Wave coming in a day or so, and shear can change easily, so that increases it's formation chances considerably. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:46, September 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * GFS shows a 976 mbar hurricane. Unless a fail named Odile blows by nice and quick and the storm depicted in the model run is named Polo, I really hope that doesn't verify. Let Rachel become the season's final female hurricane, since neither of the name's two previous incarnations (1984 and 1990) were hurricanes, but otherwise, every female name can fail from here on out. Time for the males to rise to the occasion lol. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:39, September 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah Elida was a fail YE, but that was the only female name this year that did not become a major hurricane. The only two male majors were Julio and Norbert, out of 7 total. Boris, Douglas, and Fausto didn't even become huricanes, and Hernan and Lowell barely scraped 75 mph. Although I enjoy seeing all the fish majors (except for Iselle...somewhat), I still find this season to be so sexist lol. Let's have a male name on the scale of, say Marie for once. Ryan1000 11:48, September 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think Polo may have a shot to become strong if it moves slowly. I'd much prefer males names to be stronger as well, I'd take a major regardless of name. GFS is way more aggressive now, calling for a quite strong hurricane. Here we go again. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:24, September 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree, this might have a shot of being something strong. I hope this system is Polo instead of Odile, because Odile is a female name and we've had way too much powerful female storms this season. Also to me Polo sounds like the name of a powerful system. The EPac has been too sexist and it would be great if the males caught up :P --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 20:32, September 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/60. Should be yet another powerful hurricane. As long a shear is low, which it should, this should end up becoming a major. We have a CCKW coming in to provide help. CCKW skyrockets RI chances, and this CCKW will very very strong, almost as strong as the one that spawned us Karina, Lowell, Marie, and in the ATL, Cristobal. CCKW has aided in every RI this year except for Norbert and Genevieve. Also added in Raymond 13's EI last year. So, here we go again. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:52, September 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Sigh... if Odile has to be a major hurricane, then please let it be only a marginal one (100 kts), so that Julio, Norbert, and hopefully another male name or two can be stronger. Yeah Ryan, I've thought this was a sexist season ever since Genny exploded. Thank you for confirming that I wasn't crazy :P At this point, Rachel is the only female name I want to go to a major hurricane, since neither of its previous two incarnations (1984 and 1990) exceeded TS strength (plus, if Rachel could, by some miracle, explode enough to beat Marie, I would win in the betting pools :D). Ditto Simon, so if Polo can't become our male C4 to level the playing field a little bit (Norbert helped, but it and Julio are still the only majors not to become 4s), hopefully Simon will. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 11:34, September 8, 2014 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
Invest'd. 30/70. Chance this could still become a major. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:41, September 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * 50/80. I sense the potential for RI from this one. Ryan1000 19:24, September 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * I am also seeing this becoming a potential major. Looks like we might be in for another female major assuming it's Odile, the EPac can't stop being sexist... --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:23, September 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * Models really like future Odile and with good reason as a kelvin wave is suppose to give it a boost. Expect a cat 3 or 4 from her some models are taking into Mexico which is bad because severe flooding is now an issue with the floods left by Norbert and Dolly. This looks like an El Niño even though its not officially one. Wpac had their quiest August on record with no storm. The Epac is in the spotlight this year. And we all sound sexiest :P but I will prefer women and men names to have equal storms for major I don't want either gender to have more. Allanjeffs 01:28, September 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Although the core of the system should remain offshore, models are now all of a sudden very bullish with this. Oceanic heat values are insane, SST's are 30C, next to no wind shear. Only issue could be dry air, but it should be fine, since it's not an instant issue. I would not be shocked if this becomes a Category 5. Regarding El Nino, the MEI ranking suggest we have one. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  01:42, September 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * 60/90. Looking decent. Could still be strong. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:57, September 9, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah it could very well become a big storm. Might even be another C3+ female hurricane. And with your description above we could very well even see a C5 from this. Here comes a powerful Odile! :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 02:21, September 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * More like "D:" instead of ":D" lol. Remember when we all thought Karina would explode into a Category 4, and yet it only became a Category 1? Hopefully, future Odile handles any RI/EI potential the same way Karina did (though I wouldn't mind a Category 2 out of Odile, since we haven't had an EPAC storm peak there yet this season). I'm torn between wanting as many majors as possible (we're 4 away from breaking 1992's record), and wanting the females (except for Rachel) to stay weak so that the males can do the heavy lifting going forward. The best compromise would be for Odile to peak at 100 kts with a pressure no lower than 962 mbar; Odile would give us our 8th major while still staying weaker than Julio and Norbert. Knowing the way this season has gone, though, Odile will probably become yet another female four lol. My wishful thinking is that Odile will peak at 100 kts at best, though my gut feeling tells me something in the neighborhood of 120 to 130 kts is more likely. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:54, September 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Karina was a weird case with all the shear and how the CCKW vanished. Odile will win up a major though probs, with 95E likely ending the hurricane streak. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:22, September 10, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E
Here, but forecast to be only a cat 1 when it hits southern Baja near Cabo. It looks like EPac will extend the hurricane record to 9, but unless things change, it won't be a major. Ryan1000 10:34, September 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * How reliable has the intensity guidance been this year? That should answer the question of how strong this will become? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  11:57, September 10, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Odile
Not very, YE. Not long after I said that, forecast intensity has been upped and appearance on sattelite imagery has improved significantly. Oh, and to the SW of Odile, we'll have Polo (and possibly Rachel to the SW of Polo to-be). Ryan1000 20:00, September 10, 2014 (UTC)

Odile is predicted to be a Cat 2 and maybe affect Baja. Not even a week after Norbert.

BTW Dylan, about your post on Norbert, I remember The Angry Beavers. I miss that show, it was part of my childhood :(

leeboy100 (talk) 20:40, September 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yay, we have Odile! It's now 45 mph/1001 mbars and forecast to reach 95 kts (110 mph) whilst passing near Baja. But I think we'll potentially see a major from this. Baja might need to watch out, for it could cause destruction just soon after Norbert impacted. If it becomes a major the potential Baja effects will be worse :O --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 04:41, September 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * It is now 60 mph/996 mbars and forecast track is leaning away from Baja, I guess it won't be so bad of a threat after all! I also think this still has a shot at major status, and this is a tricky forecast.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:36, September 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's interesting to note how much models have trending W. Normally, when EPAC storms off W MX intensify, they shift east. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:31, September 12, 2014 (UTC)

Hurricane Odile
Now a hurricane, with winds of 75 MPH and a pressure of 983 MB leeboy100 (talk)  14:24, September 13, 2014 (UTC)

Also thanks Ryan, because I can now change headers correctly  leeboy100 (talk) 14:26, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * 70 knts. Track shifting E at last. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  15:36, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yes!!! It finally became a hurricane! Congrats, Odile! I believe she will be a C2 soon too. (But try to avoid Mexico...) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:53, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * 80 kt/971 mbar now and there is a very real chance that this could become a major hurricane. "Despite the seemingly favorable environment, it is peculiar that none of the deterministic guidance brings Odile to a major hurricane. However, the SHIPS rapid intensification index shows about a 50/50 shot of Odile having a 30 kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. After considering the environment and the SHIPS-RI guidance, the latest NHC forecast is above all of the objective guidance during the first 24 hours, and could still be too low." Odile, become a marginal major if you wish, but please don't overtop Julio and Norbert. Wishes for the males to catch up aside, there's a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning now in effect for portions of Baja and a Hurricane Warning might be required later on, so we wouldn't want this to strengthen even if it had a male name. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:18, September 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks like the 2008 incarnation of Odile remains the only non-Hurricane Odile in the EPAC. Regardless of how strong she gets, Norbert's SST legacy will seal her fate in a couple of days or so. Although a ridge over the Southern United States is steering the hurricane NW, models are shifting NE towards a Baja landfall. Also, bad news for the folks in Arizona recovering from Norbert - Odile's circulation is going to force moisture into the Southwestern United States, potentially compacting issues there. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:53, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Odile starting to explode...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:24, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah it's now 100 mph and soon to become a major. However, don't expect Odile to go past minimal cat 4, if that, before weakening and heading into northern Baja. Ryan1000 01:35, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Why only a minimal Cat 4 at best? I'd expect it to peak at 120-130 knts. Conditions look good for two days. Recon is going out tomorrow. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:26, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * 95 knts now. Track brings it super close to Baja as a major; if that happens, that will be the first since 1989. 02:58, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Recon scheduled for Edouard and Odile tomorrow (today in UTC).-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  04:50, September 14, 2014 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Odile
Am I the only one who tracks these storms every move? Anyhow, this is now 105 knts/952mbar at the 6z adv. A lock for a Cat 4, barring a collapse. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:00, September 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * I guess the EPac storms are really shoving intensity forecasts down our throats this year, now 135 mph and 941 mbars. Odile might have a chance at strong cat 4 after all (or, if it pulls a Marie, briefly cat 5). For the record, Odile is the season's 6th category 4 and 8th major hurricane. If we get one more cat 4 this year, we'll be at a 3-way tie with 1992 and 1993 for the most cat 4's ever in one season, and if we get two more majors, we tie 1992's record of 10. We have a moth and a half to do it (assuming we don't get a Kenneth-like storm in November), it's looking very possible this year's EPac season could set those major hurricane records at this point Dylan. Ryan1000 10:34, September 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * Odile is strengthening and is a cat 4 as it close to Baja tvhe Gfs was a spot in intensity and if we talk its showing another two majors that would be Polo and Rachel This have been an incredible season.Allanjeffs 11:36, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * And we thought the MJO would back off in September, at least a little...I guess we were way wrong lol. This season isn't showing any signs of letting up anytime soon. Ryan1000 13:04, September 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * Pardon my language, but holy shit, this thing has just exploded and is now 135 MPH and 941 MB  leeboy100 (talk) 16:11, September 14, 2014 (UTC)

I suppose I've been a bit of a broken record regarding the whole "sexist season" thing, and I apologize. Would it be cool if we could have male name as strong as Marie or Odile? Absolutely, but I've bitched and moaned enough about that, perhaps too much to see this season for what it truly is: possibly the greatest EPAC season since the inactive era began in 1995. That being said, I'm getting scared for folks on the Baja peninsula. Odile may not have the winds to match, but it is now the second-strongest storm of the season. The 12z ATCF entry for Odile was revised to list peak winds of 120 kts and a pressure of 923 mbar; my guess is that the pressure revision was due to Hurricane Hunter readings in the low-to-mid 920s. The 18z entry does not change Odile's pressure from 12z, but lowers the winds to 110 kts, incredibly low for a 923 mbar hurricane. Based on satellite imagery, Odile is undergoing an EWRC, which means that the radius of maximum winds is only going to increase as the storm approaches Baja. Odile keeps wanting to inch to the right of its forecast track, too. The potential exists for Odile to become one of the strongest and worst storms to strike the Baja peninsula on record. At this rate, Odile may not be around for 2020. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:51, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Odile has been wobbling a bit NE now. We'll see if that continues. Odile is a little over halfway through its ERC (its eyewall needs to contract more). We'll see if it will finish it off prior to landfall. As of right now, FL winds are 134 knrs, but tend to be high during ERC's. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  20:35, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * New advisory is out, 110 kts/922 mbar. Strongest Pacific hurricane on record that never exceeded Category 4 intensity. The previous record was held by Olivia '94, which peaked with 130 kt winds and a minimum pressure of 923 mbar (Juliette '01 would later match the pressure record, but with weaker winds). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:05, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Odile's such an insane storm. 125 mph/922 mbars?! That is absolutely epic pressure for a C3! :O I also have a feeling this would be really bad for Baja. Hope they're prepared....--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 21:29, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * If the eastern eyewall of Odile hits Cabo San Lucas at 135 mph in 12 hours like it's currently forecast, I'd shudder to think of how they'll look after Odile comes through Monday morning. Baja California has never seen a landfalling category 4 before (although Liza '76 came pretty close to doing so); the only two major hurricanes to ever hit the peninsula were Kiko '89 (which formed out of a mesoscale convective system instead of an African wave) and Olivia '67, which first hit them as a 50 mph tropical storm but rapidly strengthened to a 125 mph major hurricane in the Gulf of California before turning back and hitting Baja again, only to dissipate over land. Neither of those storms caused significant damage due to the scarce population of the areas they struck, but a major hurricane hitting Cabo is one of the last things an EPac storm should do. Hopefully they've evacuated everyone by now, this thing is closing in fast. Ryan1000 22:04, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Update should be out soon...-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  22:56, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Hurricane warning extended further up the Baja California peninsula. That is all.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  23:05, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * There is no need to evacuate Cabo aside form the low lying residents, where well-built hotels are located. It's at a very high elevation. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:31, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory rose the pressure by 3 milibars, but winds remain at 125 mph. However, Odile is still forecast to re-intensify to a cat 4 before landfall sometime tomorrow. Ryan1000 23:55, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Might not have time to re-intensify.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  00:36, September 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * She might but its going to make landfall soon, If Odile makes landfall in Baja California Sur it mill be the strongest storm to make landfall in that state since the satellite Era.Allanjeffs 00:50, September 15, 2014 (UTC)
 * And it might get devastating for them. The eye of Odile is approaching landfall, and the results could be pretty devastating. All preparations should be rushed to completion now! I hope they make it out safe. This is gonna be a huge rollarcoaster...--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:29, September 15, 2014 (UTC)

This thing is beating the everliving sh!t out of Cabo right now. The storm chasing/meteorologist group iCyclone has been posting updates to Facebook. "One of the worst cyclones I've ever been in." These guys were in Tacloban City when Haiyan struck. If the reports from iCyclone are anything to judge by, then massive damage is inevitable and we can only hope that there is no loss of life to match. For the second year in a row, we are staring down the barrel of potential record impacts from a Pacific hurricane. This major hurricane did not behave as well as the previous seven; just like what happened with Iniki in 1992, the correlation between intensity and luck has ended. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:46, September 15, 2014 (UTC)



Landfall
And we have landfall near Cabo San Lucas. 110 kt/930 mbar. Ties Olivia '67 for winds, but since Odile's pressure is lower than Olivia's (930 mbar vs. 939 mbar), Odile has replaced Olivia as the strongest storm to strike the Baja California peninsula on record. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 05:04, September 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Wow. Just wow. What a storm, Cabo is really getting a bad hit. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:40, September 15, 2014 (UTC)

WHAT DO YOU THINK YOU'RE EVEN DOING, ODILE? This is what you get for manipulating Odette in Swan Lake! “i liek turtlez 07:34, September 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * This is a nasty hurricane. A post from the weather channel yesterday in their headlines said "Odile may be the worst hurricane to impact Cabo San Lucas in recorded history". I don't blame them, a 125 mph category 3 hurricane isn't anything to sneeze at, and since Cabo San Lucas has never seen a landfalling hurricane this strong before, it wouldn't surprise me if the impacts from Odile are unprecedented in the city. The last time Cabo suffered a direct hit from a hurricane was Henriette in 2007, but it was only a cat 1 at landfall and caused minor damage. The last cat 2 in Cabo was Marty in 2003, which caused a billion dollars in damage along with Ignacio, and there has never been a cat 3 in Cabo prior to Odile. The death toll from Odile probably won't be anywhere near Haiyan's, let alone Manuel's, but it'll cause a lot of damage either way. Ryan1000 11:17, September 15, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:CMC system
0/20. I don't buy this, but 18z GFS shows it. It'll be a repeat of 94C IMO. Or a weak TS like Fausto. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  00:26, September 7, 2014 (UTC)


 * I don't see much coming out of this.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 01:59, September 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Gone from TWO. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  23:47, September 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Model support for this is back. 10/20 and will likely be raised in two hours. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:55, September 9, 2014 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
20/20. Looks classifiable, and models make this a hurricane. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:56, September 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * 60/60. Could briefly become something. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:22, September 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * 90%. I feel certain this'll be Polo. Ryan1000 20:00, September 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * Still 90/90 and check this out from the NHC TWO: "The low is forecast to turn eastward by Friday and could become absorbed by Odile over the weekend." Goddammit, that pretty much eliminates any chance of us seeing a Hurricane Polo from this. Given how sexist this season has been in favor of the feminine side of things, we really don't need that sexism being compounded by an epic fail with a male name. Hopefully this invest either busts, or becomes TD 16-E and nothing more. Let Odile or Trudy (if we get to the 'T' name, which looks likely at this point) break the hurricane streak. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:20, September 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * So what if a season is sexist? To be fair, most EPAC seasons from 2011-13 favored males, so it's the ladies turn I guess. BTW, NHC should have classified this 18 hours ago, and I don't not know what they are thinking. Them as well as the models have taken a turn for the worse lately. I hate TD's that don't become TS's, BTW, so I really hope this is Polo as we had enough code red busts this season. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, September 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this season's too sexist towards female names. We need another male to become strong, for once! I know Norbert and Julio are a couple male names that became strong but I want to see them try beating up the females >:). Anyways, this will probably be a weakling Polo, I would like to see it be a weakling because of how much majors we've had recently, but at the same time I don't want it to because it's a male name and the female names keep being too dominant over the males.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 04:45, September 11, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E
I am torn with this one. I hate tropical depressions I prefer an invest to bust than become a td but I want to continue until the last name. Suppose to be our 16th name storm of the season and be eaten by Odile.Allanjeffs 19:27, September 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks like it'll bust, it's not forecast to become Polo while Odile is forecast to be a major and absorb this...sigh. For the record, this is the first time in history that a storm in ATL, EPac, and WPac all had the same intensity on the same day (15W, 16-E and Six in ATL all have 35 mph, 1006 mbars intensity right now). Ryan1000 20:59, September 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * I really hope it remains a depression. I don't want to see Polo used for a weak dumpling.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:33, September 12, 2014 (UTC)
 * Polo is such a lousy name. It deserves to be a weak TS. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  04:29, September 12, 2014 (UTC)

NO NO NO. POLO IS AN AWESOME NAME. HE DESERVES TO BE A CAT 5. Nuff said. ILL GET AnnOYED IF THIS IS ANOTHER ELIDA “i liek turtlez 06:48, September 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * I disagree Liz. He can only be strong if we have Marco at the same time in ATL (Marco is on this year's ATL naming list), but out of the two years Marco and Polo were used (2008, 1990), neither of those years had them active on the same day. :( Ryan1000 10:31, September 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * It's still a depression and could be a remnant low soon. Unless by some freak occurrence it receives a name, I'm glad this never became named! Personally I find Polo to be a quite strong storm name. Ryan, it would be absolutely awesome to have Marco and Polo active on the same day! But I would still like to see Polo used for a major or something. YE, it doesn't sound lousy to me :P--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 00:49, September 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * I find Polo more threatening than names like Gonzalo. I believe Polo would be awesome for a cat 2. This is the first epic epic fail of the season should be eaten by Odile or kill before it happen.I agree with you Steve I am happy that Polo was not used for this failing. Waiting for Rachel too.Allanjeffs 01:19, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Guys, just imagine if, before the crossover naming rules changed after '96, a Hurricane Marco crossed into the EPAC basin and was renamed Polo. Hurricane Marco-Polo. That would've been awesome. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:35, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's ever so close to becoming a TS all of a sudden after looking dead. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  14:54, September 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * I just hope it does not steal a name.Allanjeffs 16:41, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * How would it steal a name? And don't you want as many storms as possible? YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  17:10, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * I agree Allan, if this is named it would be a big name-stealer. It would steal a name because of how weak storms like these, if they are named they might only be a TS for a couple advisories before dissipating. Pretty huge fail, right? That's why I hope it's not named. The name "Polo" needs to be saved for a stronger storm, and not for weaklings like these! If I see this depression getting named, I would probably get really pissed off or something.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:51, September 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, 16E is becoming a little persister. Convection is still present near the center, and an ASCAT pass has revealed an LLCC remains well-defined. Unfortunately, westerly flow and increasing shear from Odile will gobble what is left of the depression. Winds are currently at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h), with a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa; 29.74 inHg). Let this depression remain unnamed, Polo deserves to become a major hurricane like he did in 1984! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:59, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * It keeps hanging on. This depression's lasting longer than I thought! But it should die soon.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 21:31, September 14, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Sixteen-E
Just as I was finally starting to hope this would become Polo lol. The dissipating depression is currently at 30 kts/1005 mbar, which actually would've been this system's peak intensity had it survived. Farewell 16-E, you fought long and hard. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:43, September 15, 2014 (UTC)


 * Yeah but it looks like Odile just gobbled him up. Polo will have to wait for the system behind Odile, now at 40/70. Ryan1000 11:17, September 15, 2014 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Was first shown by the CMC and UKMET. 10/20. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:28, September 10, 2014 (UTC)
 * 20/30. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:28, September 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * This might be of a potential Rachel.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 04:46, September 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dropped out of the TWO. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:38, September 12, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:Euro system #2
Currently over Central America. Assuming it does not enter the BOC, there's a good chance this could form late next week. Will likely be a slow moving according to the GFS, altohugh the Euro (when they showed it a few days ago) showed a much faster motion, but that is before it began to organize in the WCARB. GFS has long been bullish with this, and the 6z run showed a slow moving major hurricane that resembles Lane 06. Although normally, I'd be inclined to think a Raymond 13 or Hilary 11 situation is more likely, given the GFS's faults, it shows an epic trough off the west coast of California. Granted, the GFS has been acting very strange as of late. It's taken a turn for the worse this year all in all. For instance, it has sometimes being showing a blast of super cold air coming to the Midwest US (and most of the US in fact, sans the SW) coming from the Artic in the long (but not super long) range, but that is far fetched, giving it is still summer. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  22:46, September 6, 2014 (UTC)


 * This is interesting. It might be Polo if one of the above two AOIs develop and it could even be a major in the long run. It's a bit early to tell if it would be a major though but still something to watch.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 02:02, September 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Models have been less aggressive with this as of late. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:16, September 8, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/30. Assuming 95E and 96E do not develop, this could be Polo. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  12:47, September 11, 2014 (UTC)
 * 0/40. Might be Rachel unless the depression doesn't strengthen.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 03:38, September 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * 20/70. Here comes Polo (or Rachel if the depression becomes named!) :) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 17:54, September 13, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since the AOI is following in Odile's footsteps, it may be a struggle for the system to become the major a lot of us want. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:00, September 13, 2014 (UTC)
 * Eh, I guess, Odile and Norbert are/have stolen all the warm water, though I'd like the hurricane streak to go on one more if possible, though hopefully with this one (Polo) not affecting land. Ryan1000 01:39, September 14, 2014 (UTC)
 * Now 30/70 and might be Polo soon. It might be another hurricane.--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 21:32, September 14, 2014 (UTC)

Aoi:GFS CPAC system #1
GFS develops 2 TC's near 170W in the CPAC later this week, including one strong as it hears to the WPAC. No mention on CPHC TWO of course. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  03:16, September 8, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Mine: -- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  04:19, August 23, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iselle - 60% - If they tried to retire Daniel, they would try to do this too.
 * Everything else - 0% - Meh.

YE's: Since when is Amanda a fish storm? It killed 3 people. Cristina affected land as well, FTR. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  21:15, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda: 1% since it was epic.
 * 2) Boris: 3% killed a few ppl
 * 3) Cristina 1% As epic as Amanda.
 * 4) Douglas 0% Was okay.
 * 5) Elida 0% Fail
 * 6) Fausto 0% an epic epic epic fail.
 * 7) Wali 0% See Elida
 * 8) Geneive 1% just an epic long track, but it aint going anywhere
 * 9) Hernan 0% fish system
 * 10) Iselle 35% Very tricky. Hawaii is super lenient, but they'll never had a middle of the ground storm like this. They'll request probs though.
 * 11) Julio 1% For passing north of Hawaii
 * 12) Karina 0% fish system
 * There is no need for this section! We're only one fish storm in, for crying out loud! Please wait until later. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:22, May 25, 2014 (UTC)

Steve's retirement predictions:

<font face="Times New Roman"> Steve  820  ✉   21:30, May 25, 2014 (UTC) (last updated 03:42, September 12, 2014 (UTC))
 * Amanda: 1% - Didn't significantly affect land but was an epic and awesome storm that surprised us by strengthening to strongest May storm in EPac on record! It caused the deaths of 3-4 people which is why it is 1%.
 * Boris: 2% - Caused destruction in Central America but most likely it isn't getting retired because it only caused 5 deaths.
 * Cristina: 0% - It was also an epic and awesome storm, similar to Amanda, but it isn't getting the boot due to the storm not affecting land.
 * Douglas: 0% - It really tried even though it only peaked as weak TS, but since it didn't affect land it won't be retired.
 * Elida: 1% - It actually did cause some slight impacts, but it's certainly not going and will be back in 2020.
 * Fausto: -∞% - 'nuff said
 * Wali: -∞% - See Fausto
 * Genevieve - 0.1% - Very freakin awesome, especially because it was a weak TS for a couple weeks before exploding into a Category 5!!! Wow! It didn't affect land though but it gets a tiny extra point for awesomeness.
 * Hernan: 0% - It broke our weak TS streak, but since it didn't cause any impacts, a retirement is not going to happen.
 * Iselle: 60% - Hawaii's third costliest storm and strongest Big Island landfall ever. It was also a fun-to-track Category 4. Due to these Hawaiian impacts and their retirement standards, it has a good shot at going.
 * Julio: 0% - Fun to track and pulled a surprising stunt on us near the end by re-strengthening to a hurricane in high latitudes, but since it didn't affect land Julio will come back in 2020.
 * Karina: 0% - Just a typical minimal hurricane without affecting land. Pulled a Douglas/Julio out of the hat and lasted longer than expected.
 * Lowell: 0% - Didn't affect land
 * Marie: 0% - Awesome Cat. 5 but not going due to lack of land effects.
 * Norbert: 15% - Flooding in Arizona and effects in Baja, but I'm still a bit positive that it won't be retired. This is no laughing matter though.
 * Odile: ? - Still active


 * (Edit conflict) Dylan, Amanda was definitely not a fish storm because of its extremely rare intensity. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:31, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Whether or not a storm is a fish has zilch to do with its intensity. Fish storms are not necessarily weak storms; they are storms that do not even do so much as breathe on any landmasses during their existence. Amanda falls into that category. Granted, it was still a very impressive hurricane, but a fish storm nonetheless. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:39, May 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Here's mine


 * Amanda: 1%-  While it was an impressive storm, it isn't going to be retired because it hasn't affected land. (Updated to 1% due to the deaths in Mexico)
 * Boris: 3%- Didn't actually track this storm but I'll give it a 3 because it caused six fatalities.
 * Cristina:- 1% damage wasn't too bad
 * Douglas- 0% no
 * Elida-0% NO
 * Fausto-0% NO
 * Wali-0% I didn't even know this storm existed.
 * Genevieve- 0% Just like Amanda. Impressive storm that didn't affect land.
 * Hernan-0% it became a hurricane. That's about it
 * Iselle-55%- Due to its effects on Hawaii ($53 million and fortunately only 1 death) it has a good chance at retirement. Although the WMO is strange at retiring EPAC names. However, it's safe to say Hawaii will probably request retirement.
 * Julio-0% an interesting storm to track that almost hit Hawaii.
 * Karina-0% The only reason I can think of that could get this name retired is sounding too much like "Katrina" but no.
 * Lowell-0% See Hernan
 * Marie-0% an amazing cat. 5. Like her sisters Amanda and Genevieve it didn't affect land though
 * Norbert- 15% caused 5 deaths and flooding, and it could be upgraded if there is more confirmed damage and deaths
 * Odile-Currently active

​      leeboy100 (talk)  13:10, September 12, 2014 (UTC)


 * Just because something was epic it doesn't mean she needs to get points to be honest right now her chance is 0% it might go up if her remnants or whatever is left gives rain to Mexico and the USA,but I believe they are going to be more beneficial that harmful.Allanjeffs 22:42, May 25, 2014 (UTC)
 * Isaac, can we seriously wait on starting this section from now on? We shouldn't begin the retirements section until we either 1) have a decent number of storms, or 2) have something worth retiring. Beginning this right after the "A" storm (which didn't even affect land) is premature and we won't get a meaningful discussion out of it, it's pretty obvious to everyone that Amanda won't get retired. Wait a little more from now on. Ryan1000 04:55, May 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * So Amanda may get 1% after all she killed three to four people in Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:31, June 3, 2014 (UTC)

My thoughts:

East Pacific:


 * Amanda - 1% - That 1% is just because of the few deaths in Mexico, not for being epic.
 * Boris - 3% - More impact than Amanda, but still not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina - 0% - No damage, no deaths, no retirement. Nuff said.
 * Douglas - 0% - ^^
 * Elida - 1% - Actually it did cause some minor damage here and there, so it's not a 0%.
 * Fausto - Faulure% - Need I say more?
 * Genevieve - 0% - My god, what a storm! Who could've guessed that Genevieve would go from being a weakling TS that died twice in the CPac to becoming a category 5 super typhoon and the most powerful storm worldwide in 2013. It showed all of us what happens when you keep trying and don't give up. :) All while it was far out to sea, with no damage or casualties reported.
 * Hernan - 0% - Well hey, at least we finally got another hurricane...
 * Iselle - 50% - Eh, sue me. I really don't know what to think of this storm's chances for retirement. While Iselle killed a person and caused 53 million in damage (making it Hawaii's 3rd costliest storm after Iwa and Iniki), those numbers don't appear too high on paper and the post-storm media hype with this one didn't last as long as it did with past U.S. landfalling storms. I'd say it's a toss-up -- It could very well be retired for its unique nature and so-called "unprecedented" impacts on the Big Island, but I also wouldn't be too surprised if it's not retired since the damage and death toll weren't too extreme. We'll see.
 * Julio - 0% - Total fishspinner, but I'm surprised it went up to a hurricane again in the far north Central Pacific.
 * Karina - 0% - Another hurricane, but well away from any land.
 * Lowell - 0% - The remnants did bring some rain to southern California, but no damages or deaths were reported. In fact, it might have even been beneficial to them since they've been in a severe drought for most of this year.
 * Marie - 3% - Killed 3 people from offshore drownings and caused 3 million in damage. Not a complete fail, but not enough for retirement either.
 * Norbert - 18% - Caused extreme flooding over parts of Arizona and other areas of the southwestern U.S, but as Paul '82 and Octave '83 showed, the impacts caused by the precursor/remnants of a storm don't usually get retirement, unfortunately.
 * Odile - ?? - Currently active, but could cause lots of damage to Cabo San Lucas.

Central Pacific:

Ryan1000 10:21, June 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wali - 0% - If you blinked, you missed it.
 * Cristina wasn't a *total* fishspinner. IT passed near Socorro Island (has roughly 200 ppl on it) and brought waves to MX. Odv staying though :P 20:42, June 30, 2014 (UTC)

Alright, here are mine as of June 30:
 * Amanda — <1% Nope.
 * Boris — ≤1% Nope.
 * Cristina — <1% Nope.
 * Douglas — <1% Nope.
 * Elida — ≤1% Probably nope.

- <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  21:39, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Passing by a (relatively) unpopulated island doesn't count in my book. And waves to Mexico, eh, at least it didn't kill anyone like Amanda did. Still a 0% :P Ryan1000 22:31, June 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Since we have reached the "D" name, I will post my predictions for the EPAC.

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:36, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * 1) Amanda - 1% - It caused three fatalities and damaged several roads and structures across Western Mexico, but these impacts do not even hold a candle to last year's Manuel.
 * 2) Boris - 2% - Widespread impact and six fatalities have been reported across southern Mexico and Guatemala. I doubt retirement however, given Agatha's snub.
 * 3) Cristina - <1% - Some waves along the Mexican coastline, but nothing too severe.
 * 4) Douglas - 0% - For a storm of its intensity and environment, this was a very strong fighter against the world. However, since no damages or deaths were reported from Douglas, it will most likely stay.
 * 5) Elida - 0.5% - Elida did the best she could against the heavy wind shear and Douglas. Nevertheless, she only caused little damage to resorts along Mexico's coast.
 * 6) Fausto - 0% - Absolutely no impacts were reported from Fausto, and I do not even think this system deserved a name anyway.
 * 7) Wali - 0% - Wali was a miserable fail, just like a CPAC Fausto.
 * 8) Genevieve - 0% - I am very impressed by the show Genevieve gave us. I remember when we were first calling the storm a pathetic fail (not me, at least!) and just saying it sucked when she poofed away. Then Genny tried hard to prove us wrong and she only got so far again. So she passed away again, but her spirit still stayed with her, and she refused to give up hope. Finally, she did what every EPAC system dreams of doing - live in all three basins and become a modest Category 5 hurricane. It was worth the struggle. Genny accomplished her dream, and even better, harmed no one. While we know she isn't going, she was a very impressive system for her age and day.
 * 9) Hernan - 0% - Hernan became a respectable weak hurricane, albeit a weak one. However, only the Revillagigedo Islands were affected, and no impact has been reported yet. So it's safe to assume Cortes has to wait another six years.
 * 10) Iselle - 60% - Well, Miss Iselle is going to be a tricky one. She started off real excited and attained C4 intensity in a region that normally could only handle a C2. Then she did the annular trick and went straight to Hawaii's doorstep as a moderate TS. Her landfall on the Big Island is the strongest one to ever occur. And that obviously didn't go without impact. Damaging surf and strong winds around Hilo downed a number of trees and unroofed some houses. Over 20,000 are without power due to all the power lines Iselle downed. Of strong note is what happened in Puna; the power failure in a geothermal plant has released toxic hydrogen sulfide gases into the air, which could suffocate dozens. Currently, one fatality has been reported from the hurricane, and damage reports are at $53 million (2014 USD). Call me overcasting, but Hawaii requested Flossie '07 and Daniel '06 for retirement, both of which caused effectively nothing. Iselle, however, has left a huge mark for Hawaii, and it's likely going based on their retirement standards.
 * 11) Julio - 0% - Julio was a very impressive major hurricane and shocked me with his little re-intensification stunt. However, no land impacts, so no retirement for him.
 * 12) Karina - 0% - Karina fought long and strong for two weeks against everything that could have killed her. But no impacts, so she's not moving a muscle.
 * 13) Lowell - 0% - Became a hurricane unexpectedly, but caused nothing.
 * 14) Marie - 5% - Actually, Marie was a little more impacting than some of you think. The Mexican state of Oaxaca declared a disaster due to all the flooding and landslides, and two people were swept out to sea. Santa Catalina Island reported huge boulders tossed onshore and docked boats were ripped off their stands, which caused $10+ million (2014 USD) in losses. There was also a fatality in Malibu from someone hit by a rock. Marie was surely impressive as a Category 5, but it didn't leave nothing behind.
 * 15) Norbert - 30% - Well, the Ridgeback sure caused something. A dam failure occurred northwest of Puerto San Carlos, and three people were swept away from floodwaters across northern Mexico. In California, damage was also notable, with many flooded freeways and stranded vehicles. But the worst happened in Arizona. Sky Harbor Airport in Pheonix recorded in seven hours an entire summer's worth of rainfall. Also, southern areas of the city suffered many closed streets and thousands of customers were powerless in Pheonix and Mesa. As a matter of fact, water levels were so high in Tucson that pumping stations couldn't handle the stress. Flooding was described as the worst in Arizona since 1970, and similarly, rainfall in Nevada caused the worst problems for Moapa Valley in over a century. Five fatalities and all that impact makes Norbert a great candidate for retirement, but if Kathleen in 1976 or Nora in 1997 stayed, well, who knows.
 * 16) Odile - TBA - Still Active

We have enough storms for me:
 * Eastern Pacific
 * Amanda: 2% - 3 deaths won't cut it, but damn, this was certainly an excellent early-season surprise.
 * Boris: 8% - Caused more impact than Amanda, but probably not enough for retirement.
 * Cristina: 0% - It may have been almost as strong as Amanda and set several records for its early-season intensity, but a fish is a fish is a fish, regardless of how impressive or powerful it is.
 * Douglas: 0% -
 * Elida: 0% 1% -
 * Actually, there was some impact after all, but it was only minor.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:58, July 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fausto: Pun% - *faustpalm*
 * Genevieve: 0% - Epic win for the intensity it reached after struggling for nearly two weeks, but it steered clear of land areas.
 * Hernan: Hurricane% - Finally.
 * Iselle: 51% - With Daniel '06 and Flossie '07, Hawaii proved itself willing to request the retirement of anything that dares to breathe on them. Since Iselle actually hit them - and made its mark, too - then if Hawaii submits Iselle for consideration, the WMO may be more likely to oblige this time around.
 * Julio: 0% - Kudos for becoming a major hurricane and surviving relatively far north for a Pacific hurricane, but like I said about Cristina, a fish is a fish is a fish.
 * Karina: 0% - Fishspinner, but it was also the EPAC's longest-lasting storm in a while. Two weeks is difficult to pull off in this part of the world, and for that, Karina deserves kudos.
 * Lowell: 0% - Became a hurricane when it was thought that its large size would preclude it from doing so, but other than that, not much to see here. I haven't heard of any adverse affects from Lowell's supposed moisture enhancement in the southeastern United States.
 * Marie: 4% - It's a pity that this storm couldn't go entirely without impact, but it was still amazing to watch.
 * Norbert: 20% - Caused terrible flooding in the southwestern United States, but historically speaking (Kathleen '76, Octave '83, etc.), that has not been enough for retirement. We'll see, though.
 * Central Pacific
 * Wali: 0% - I mean at least it was a CPAC storm, which doesn't happen all that often.

Here's mine: - HurricaneHunter99 (talk) 17:27, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% - Gave us an early season surprise, but its 3 deaths won't cut it.
 * Boris: 5% - Impacts weren't significant enough.
 * Cristina: 1% - It became a monster, but it was a fish.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but he failed.
 * Elida: 0% - She didn't even try.
 * ??? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:54, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, is that a doppelganger account of yours? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:30, July 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Nah, just someone who wishes they could be like me ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:03, July 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * My predictions for this season.


 * Amanda: 1% - It became a C4, but it didn't cause impacts neccessary for retirement.
 * Boris: 1% - Given that this system gave minimal effects and Mexico is picky with retirements, Boris is staying.
 * Cristina: 1% - Pulled off a good show and rivaled Amanda in intensity, she's not going anywhere.
 * Douglas: 0% - He tried, but his large size prevented him from pulling off a good show.
 * Elida: 0% - Elida didn't even try, she truly failed.
 * Fausto: 0% - Completely ruined its image as a strong storm.
 * Wali: 0% - Added to the unneccessary tropical storm spam.
 * Genevieve: 0% - I can't see it happening.
 * Hernan: 0% - Finally ended the tropical storm spam, otherwise Hernan is staying.

Simlover123 23:13, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Amanda: 1% Stunning and early surprise storm but she is not going 3 deaths are not going to make Mexico ask for her.
 * Boris: 3% Minimal damage at most, Mexico have seen much worse storms who haven't been retired not excuse for this one.
 * Cristina:0% Amazing storm but she is not going as she didn't affect land.
 * Douglas:0% I expect a fail of him and I recieve a fail, but I give him credit for living longer than forecast.
 * Elida: 0% Expect much more from her and I get an epic fail.
 * Fausto:0% Epic Failure. That says it all
 * Genevieve: Active
 * Hernan: 0% Just because he was a hurricane doesn't mean he is a candidate for retirement. He did nothing at all.
 * Iselle: Active
 * Julio: Active
 * Wali: 0% Another failureeeeee.
 * Allanjeffs 04:26, July 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * Amanda = 10% Too cool for retirement.
 * Boris = 1% Even Boris Johnson thought this storm was nothing special.
 * Cristina = 5% She is beautiful, no matter what you say, but she aint movin.
 * Douglas = -3% Next!
 * Elida = -10% Yawn.
 * Fausto = -821973892638742748% -grabs vomit bucket-
 * Genevieve = 10% Super ADHD storm for the win!
 * Hernan = Yawn%

“i liek turtlez 14:53, August 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here's my prediction


 * HERE WE GO!

Replacement Names
Although it's not a guarantee, there is a possibility Iselle could be retired due to its impacts on Hawaii. That being said, what are your thoughts on possible replacement names for Iselle? My suggestions are: Out of these suggestions (feel free to post more), I would pick Inga. Ryan1000 01:24, August 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Ivy
 * Isha
 * Isla
 * Indira
 * Ines
 * Ivana
 * Ilene
 * Ivette
 * Ilsa
 * Isabela
 * Inga
 * Ilse
 * Ivonne
 * Ivanna


 * I'm not completely sure Iselle is doomed to go, but here are my top ten suggestions -


 * Iggy
 * Innocente
 * Iphigenia
 * Isabel
 * Ione
 * Isuelt
 * Irmelin
 * Inmaculada
 * Ilse
 * Imelia

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:26, August 19, 2014 (UTC) Like Iggy Azealea? Fancy name. Anyway, I thought of Imani. “i liek turtlez 16:24, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * I think Isabel and anything too similar is out of the question since the name was retired from the Atlantic lists only a decade ago. My top pick would be Ione - also retired in the Atlantic, but that was nearly 6 decades ago, and the name was subsequently used in the Pacific several times before male names were introduced. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:56, August 19, 2014 (UTC)
 * Iggy is good.71.187.142.27 16:31, August 22, 2014 (UTC) I was thinkin'that Iggy would kill mario for 2019.

Here's my suggestions:


 * Ivy
 * Ivana
 * Ivette
 * Iggy
 * Ione
 * Imelia
 * Ilsa
 * Isla
 * Inga
 * Ivonne

Ones that I like the most are in bold. It would also be cool to have a system named after Iggy Azalea. :D --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  | Chat With Me •  My Edits  •  ✉ 16:48, August 22, 2014 (UTC)
 * Or Iggy Pop. I'd much rather have Iggy used in a male context for that reason :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC)

Post-season changes
The first TCR of the season was released on the 12th, so I figured it was time to start this section. Boris's strength was upped to 40 kts/998 mbar (from the operational peak of 35 kts/999 mbar). It also never made landfall - while it was operationally believed to have done so, post-analysis found that the low-level center actually remained offshore, coming within 20 nmi of the coast before dissipating. No deaths were reported from Boris while it was a tropical cyclone, but the precursor disturbance killed 5 in Guatemala. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:37, August 23, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks Like Cristina and Elida are now out. Nothing's particularly special intensity-wise, but the NHC report did say there was some extensive beach erosion and damage to hotels along the southern Mexican coast from Elida, so it looks like she wasn't a complete fail. Updated to include her a 1%. Ryan1000 20:25, August 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * I wasn't expecting that much impact from Elida. Guess she wasn't so pathetic after all. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:35, August 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * Fausto is out, nothing special though. Ryan1000 17:57, September 5, 2014 (UTC)