Forum:2012-13 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/SWIO 2

Tropical Depression 07
Okay, it looks like the South-West Indian Ocean is awake after taking a short nap from tropical disturbances. Does anyone currently predict a Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:44, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

I'm actually calling at least a category one out of this before it runs into Madagascar on Tuesday. I think our first landfalling cyclone of the SWIO is about to unfold. Ryan1000 21:21, January 26, 2013 (UTC)

Peressure slightly up to 1000 mbar, but the RSMC La Réunion still expects a tropical cyclone. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:41, January 27, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Felleng
Now named. However, drastic change in track forecast, now it's expected to move south before it ever reaches Madagascar. Ryan1000 21:48, January 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * I gotta felleng, that this storm is gonna be a good good storm. TONIGHT'S THE NIGHT, HE IS GOING TO BE A CATEGORY 4! (That's my hypothesis, I see him becoming an intense hurricane. Oof!) Rainbow dash run.gif Raraah, Awesome Pony Pinkie pie walking.gif 23:13, January 28, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Felleng
Currently undergoing rapid deepening, wouldn't be all that surprised if it briefly becomes a very intense tropical cyclone. Supportstorm (talk) 12:59, January 29, 2013 (UTC)

Intense Tropical Cyclone Felleng
Taking off... Ryan1000 17:15, January 30, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Felleng (2nd time)
And back down. Ryan1000 12:53, February 2, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Felleng (2nd time)
Almost out... Ryan1000 10:27, February 3, 2013 (UTC)

Extratropical Depression Ex-Felleng
Out. Isaac829 E-Mail  17:58, February 3, 2013 (UTC)

Yep, that's it. We might be in slumber for some time now, knowing that nothing is expected to develop in the near-future for the rest of the SHem. Ryan1000 22:18, February 3, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 08
New SWIO system, likely going to become Gino as it heads southward out to sea, becoming a C1/2 on the way. Ryan1000 10:41, February 11, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Gino
Now Gino. Ryan1000 14:33, February 11, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Gino
Going up, though still a ways away from land. Ryan1000 14:52, February 12, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Gino
Cat 1 now. Ryan1000 06:31, February 13, 2013 (UTC)

Extratropical Depression Ex-Gino
Down and out. Ryan1000 17:37, February 15, 2013 (UTC)

16S.HARUNA
Basically a tropical depression now. GFS predicts that 94S will become a cyclone before making landfall on the very southern tip of Madagascar on the 21st. Supportstorm (talk) 03:29, February 18, 2013 (UTC)

I have a feeling this area of disturbed weather will become Haruna sometime later today or tomorrow. However, while the GFS has this hitting Madagascar in 3 days time, the ECMWF keeps this in the channel for at least 5 days or so until making landfall as a powerful storm. Ryan1000 13:43, February 18, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 09
La Reunion seems to be following the ECMWF model, which I wouldn't be surprised if it takes that path. The last week it's done nothing more than swirl in circles in that channel. Supportstorm (talk) 16:06, February 18, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Haruna
Now a MTS. Forecast to head towards the southern end of Madagascar (as said earlier), as a strong TS or a TC. Ryan1000 00:57, February 20, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Haruna
It's really pretty looking on satellite, but unfortunately it's also looking like it will be making landfall as a upper Cat. 3 or minimal Cat. 4 cyclone. Supportstorm (talk) 03:31, February 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Haruna might peak where it is now or it could become a stronger cat 3, but I don't think it will become a cat 4. Haruna is also featuring a very large eye, almost 50 miles across. It's probrably going to end up making landfall near Toliara sometime later today or tomorrow. Ryan1000 18:41, February 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * Now making landfall at cat 2 or 3 not sure.Allanjeffs 03:33, February 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Haruna made landfall near Toliara (as I said earlier), as a 105 mph category 2 cyclone last night, just weakening from it's category 3 peak. Looks like the GFS nailed this one right on the head. The Euro was calling for Haruna to stall in the Mozambique Channel for about 5 days and make landfall in southern Madagascar as a category 5 monster. Looks like that never panned out. Hopefully impacts weren't too bad for Madagascar, emergency preparations have greatly improved in that country over the past several years. It still remains a problem in Mozambique, but hopefully they'll be as good as them in the future. Ryan1000 16:27, February 22, 2013 (UTC)

Extratropical Disturbance Ex-Haruna
Wow, that was fast. Died out already. At least one person was reported to have died in Madagascar thus far. MFR sees it briefly reintensifying into a MTS before going away for good. Ryan1000 12:07, February 23, 2013 (UTC)


 * JTWC is still making advisories. Isaac829 E-Mail  19:34, February 24, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10
First storm in a while.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  20:03, April 6, 2013 (UTC)

Maybe this will become something big? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:36, April 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * Somewhat, according to GFS, less powerful according to the Euro, but both models turn it southeast well away from Madagascar. Looks like this could very well be the SHem's last storm of 2012-13. Should this become named, it would be Imelda. Ryan1000 00:32, April 8, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Imelda
Now Imelda. Ryan1000 13:02, April 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Imelda
Now a cat. 1. Ryan1000 10:40, April 10, 2013 (UTC)

Moderate Tropical Storm Imelda
Dying down... Ryan1000 13:05, April 16, 2013 (UTC)

Finally dying after so long. Isaac829 E-Mail  00:08, April 17, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda
Farewell, Imelda. Ryan1000 12:51, April 17, 2013 (UTC)