Forum:2013 Pacific typhoon season

Future start
Yep.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:18, September 16, 2012 (UTC)

Yep. A. Massive. Catty. 5. Typhoon. In. Typhoon. Land. I. Think. Will. Hit. Japan. In. August. 2013. Whilst. We. Are. Having. Humberto. And. Ingrid. Agreed. People. 188.223.248.201 00:10, November 11, 2012 (UTC)


 * JTWC Best Track for last year is out. Isaac829 E-Mail  20:54, April 26, 2013 (UTC)

August
Has begun, but WPac is quiet outside of Jebi. Ryan1000 06:43, August 1, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Kiko)
The JMA is currently tracking a 30 kt, 1006 mbar tropical depression. It is labeled Invest 94W by the JTWC, and that agency gives it a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:11, August 4, 2013 (UTC)

PAGASA has named this depression Kiko. It also has gotten slightly stronger. Also, the JTWC gives this depression a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:02, August 5, 2013 (UTC)

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA) has been issued by the JTWC. We could see another weak tropical storm from this invest/depression. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  16:53, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Bit lonely Andrew? (Yeah, no one seems to care about the WPac, but it is the most active basin worldwide). Anyways, I don't expect much from this one. Maybe TS Mangkhut, but nothing more. Ryan1000 16:58, August 5, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 10W
The JTWC has initiated advisories on this depression, and it has designated it Tropical Depression 10W. The JMA expects a 35 knot tropical storm from this depression, and the JTWC predicts a 40 knot tropical storm. Note that the JMA uses 10-minute sustained winds and the JTWC uses 1-minute sustained winds. Also, the JTWC takes Tropical Depression 10W straight into Vietnam in approximately 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:12, August 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here comes Mangkhut! I hope it won't be too bad for the people who live there.  Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 01:15, August 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * They get this kind of stuff every year, pretty much. This shouldn't be anything exceptional. Ryan1000 06:06, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Mangkhut (Kiko)
Now named by JMA. Ryan1000 14:00, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

The JTWC has also classified Mangkhut as a tropical storm. However, neither the JTWC or JMA expect Mangkhut to go beyond 45 knots. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:04, August 6, 2013 (UTC)

And Mangkhut is no stronger...Here comes another fail. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:16, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

The wpac in terms of intensity has been a disappointment to me like the Epac.Allanjeffs 04:00, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Currently at 40 kts/992 mbar, but Mangkhut will not intensify any further, as both the JMA and JTWC forecast. Also, Allan, I agree. This year, intensitywise, is currently a fail for all Northern Hemisphere basins. In 2010, the Atlantic rocked while everyone else failed. In 2011, it was the Eastern Pacific that did so. In 2012, it was divided between the Pacific and Atlantic. This year, we are just horrible. The Atlantic may pull a 1950, 2001, or 2010, but it is not very likely at this point. Likewise, the Pacific could 2009 out, but I really doubt that. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:58, August 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * In 2012, the Atlantic was rather lackluster with power, with only 2 majors that barely made the upgrade and everything else being weak. The Pacific was more or less average last year. The Atlantic's peak has yet to come. 2010 didn't get Danielle until late August and that year still got to 19 named storms. As for this year, we got Dorian in July, before August even began. If we get, say 5 storms in August, September, and October in the ATL, we're going to have a 19 storm season again. And we could easily go over that if we explode like 2010 did. Ryan1000 23:37, August 7, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Mangkhut
Gone as it moves inland to Vietnam. Ryan1000 14:54, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

Well, that was quite the fail. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:25, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Was hoping to see more, but it didn't do much. It wasn't an epic fail knowing it did impact land, but those impcts weren't that much. Ryan1000 20:56, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
And as Mangkhut dies, a new man is born! Golly, the Pacific is in an outrage! WE have Henriette, 2 AOIs, and now this guy! Anyway, this depression has just been classified, and it is going to become an epic fail. The JMA predicts a 35 knot tropical storm and then kills it. Is it me, or is the WPAC pulling a 2011 AHS (one epic win and everyone else a fail or fishspinner)? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:38, August 8, 2013 (UTC)


 * Should this be named, it would be Utor. EPac is impressing me more than WPac is, they've got a category 2, a potential future major, and a future TS behind Henriette. This is rather lackluster for the WPac, Mangkhut didn't do to much and this should do even less than Mangkhut did. It might not even do anything at all. Ryan1000 20:54, August 8, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11W (Labuyo)
Um, I don't know if I'm looking at the same storm as you guys, but if I am, then this thing is currently forecast to become a 120-knot Category 4 pointed at Hong Kong by Tuesday. That's a pretty unsettling forecast; future Utor is definitely one to watch. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:37, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Ryan you are seeing the depression east of the phillipines right? all of the models show a cat 3 or 4 slaming near Hong Kong.Allanjeffs 05:10, August 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Well, the JMA still only takes the system to 35 knots. However, the JTWC predicts this depression will slam into southern China as an 85 knot typhoon. So I take back what I said about Tropical Depression 11W becoming an epic fail. Also, PAGASA has named the depression Labuyo. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:27, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * The JTWC is more biased than the JMA and they're unofficial; the official JMA forecast doesn't do much with this at all. JTWC does but they're not official and they've been wrong quite a few times before (especially with Soulik, they forecasted it to hit Shanghai as a monster super typhoon; even I bought that would happen but instead it ended up further south in Taiwan, like the JMA said). I highly doubt this'll end up being a Cat. 4 in Hong Kong. Even JTWC has lowered their forecast, now they don't expect it to be more than a 100 mph cat. 2, and also missing Hong Kong to the south. However, JMA might not be completely bustcasting this storm; in fact I think the reason their forecast cone is so short is because they're not too sure what'll happen with this thing. That might be dangerous... Ryan1000 13:38, August 9, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Utor (Labuyo)
Now named by JMA, currently at 45 kt per JTWC. Forecast by the JTWC to become a 90-knot Category 2 typhoon before striking Luzon and subsequently moving into the South China Sea towards Hainan. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:48, August 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Utor Aug 10 2013 0032Z.png seriously think that the JTWC is underestimating the actual strength of this storm. The structure is closer to that of a 70 knot typhoon rather than a 55 knot storm. Supportstorm (talk) 02:22, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Utor (Labuyo)
Utor's bombing, guys. JTWC has it at 55 kts, and JMA at 60 kts/975 mbar and forecast to become a "Very Strong" 85-knot (10-min) typhoon by the end of the forecast period. Our second typhoon of the year is forthcoming. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:26, August 10, 2013 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
There are enough storms. -- Isaac829 E-Mail  02:41, July 9, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - 5% - 2 deaths are not going to do it.
 * Auring - 0% - Missed most of Philippines.
 * Bising - 0% - Paralleled the Philippines.
 * Shanshan - 0% - An excuse of a TS.
 * Crising - 20% - Not enough.
 * Yagi - 0% - Fail.
 * Dante - 0% - Went the opposite way.
 * Leepi - 0% - Nope.
 * Emong - 0% - No.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Not too much damage.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned away from the Philippines.
 * Rumbia - 25% - I doubt it.
 * Gorio - 30% - Nah.
 * Soulik - ?

I am going to wait on this section until Soulik dissipates. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, July 9, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, when Soulik hits China, I think we'll have a seroius retirement canidate. But nothing prior to Soulik stands much of a chance for retirement. Ryan1000 16:03, July 9, 2013 (UTC)

Now that Soulik's gone, I will post my predictions:

JMA:
 * 1) Sonamu - 1% - Two deaths is simply not enough for retirement, and Sonamu barely left any damage at all.
 * 2) Shanshan - 1% - Although four people died and damages amount to $255,000 (2013 USD), if 2008's Fengshen was not retired, Shanshan definitely will not.
 * 3) Yagi - 0.1% - It tapped Japan, but I just do not see Yagi going because of the lack of damage and deaths.
 * 4) Leepi - 0.5% - This storm affected a good number of regions, but there are no damage or death reports, so it is a no for Leepi.
 * 5) Bebinca - 2% - Despite affecting many areas of China, they have seen so much worse than Bebinca, as the storm did not kill anyone and caused only $5.3 million (2013 USD) in damage.
 * 6) Rumbia - 35% - One hundred sixty-four deaths, along with $4.53 billion (2013 USD) in damage, make Bebinca a potential retirement candidate. Rumbia only did $1.25 million in damage, the other $4.52 billion came from something else.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:13, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * 7) Soulik - 10% - This could have been an unwritten nightmare for Shanghai, but Soulik collapsed so fast it did not happen. Regardless, the damage total of $43 million (2013 USD) is not looking good.
 * 8) Rumbia - 5% - Some significant flooding and impact occurred in China and damages total to $253 million (2013 USD), but it likely will not be enough for retirement, considering only one fatality was reported.
 * 9) Jebi - 0.5% - No damages or deaths have been reported from the system, and it was not as bad as it could have been.
 * 10) Mangkhut - 0.1% - It has caused two fatalities, but I doubt it will be bad at all for Vietnam.

PAGASA:
 * 1) Auring - 0.1% - No.
 * 2) Bising - 0% - No way.
 * 3) Crising - 2% - Not really.
 * 4) Dante - 0% - No way.
 * 5) Emong - 0.05% - No.
 * 6) Fabian - 0% - No way.
 * 7) Gorio - 20% - Maybe, but I doubt it.
 * 8) Huaning - 0% - No.
 * 9) Isang - 0.01% - No.
 * 10) Jolina - 0.05% - No.
 * 11) Kiko - 0.05% - No.
 * 12) Labuyo - TBA - Still Active

Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, July 14, 2013 (UTC)

Might as well make mine:

JMA names: PAGASA names: Those are mine for now. Ryan1000 21:54, July 14, 2013 (UTC)
 * Sonamu - <1% - Not happening.
 * Shanshan - 2% - Not a fishspinner, but this was no Bopha.
 * Yagi - ~0% - Hardly any damage in Japan.
 * Leepi - 0% - More widespread than Yagi, but most of the impacts were negligible.
 * Bebinca - 5% - Some damage to China, but they've seen much worse than this.
 * Rumbia - 30% - I would normally go higher for a storm that killed over 50 people, but those numbers aren't high enough in that area.
 * Soulik - >30% - 300 million in damage as of now, Soulik could've been much, much worse.
 * Cimaron - <10% - China has seen worse.
 * Jebi - 8% - Meh.
 * Mangkhut - 10% - Not expected to be too bad.
 * Utor - ?? - Not expecting too much.
 * Auring - 1% - Not enough.
 * Bising - 0% - Seriously?
 * Crising - 4% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Did I miss something?
 * Emong - 1% - Maybe...nah, not happening.
 * Fabian - 0% - What?
 * Gorio - 15% - Nothing compared to past storms they've seen.
 * Huaning - 0% - No damage to the Philipines.
 * Isang - 0% - Didn't touch the Philpines.
 * Jolina - 6% - Nothing severe to the islands.
 * Kiko - <5% - Not much to the Philipines.
 * Labuyo - ?? - Not sure about this yet.

Here's my predictions:

JMA names
 * Sonamu - 1% - 2 deaths are not enough.
 * Shanshan - 1% - This affected the Philippines, but the damage and deaths are not enough for retirement.
 * Yagi - 0% - Failure.
 * Leepi - 0% - No way.
 * Bebinca - 5% - China has seen much, much worse.
 * Rumbia - 25% - There's a chance, but I doubt it.
 * Soulik - 35% - Caused lots of damage in Taiwan and China, but this could have been much worse.
 * Cimaron - 10% - I don't think so.
 * Jebi - 0.5% - Nope.
 * Mangkhut - 1% - Doubt it.

PAGASA names Steven09876 (Talk to Me!!!) (My Edits!) 15:59, July 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * Auring - 0.5% - Doubt it.
 * Bising - 0% - Epic fail.
 * Crising - 2% - Nah.
 * Dante - 0% - Hell no.
 * Emong - 0.1% - No.
 * Fabian - 0% - Turned the wrong way.
 * Gorio - 20% - The Philippines have seen MUCH worse.
 * Huaning - 0% - Nope.
 * Isang - 0.1% - Not happening.
 * Jolina - 5% - Caused some flooding in the Philippines, but it won't be retired.
 * Kiko - 2% - Didn't do much to the Philippines.