Forum:2015 Atlantic hurricane season

Future start
We have one for the EPac, so why not the Atlantic? Betting pools are here. I'll make my worldwide calls later on. Ryan1000 21:20, November 17, 2014 (UTC)


 * I really want more from this upcoming season; 2014 was a good start. I predict...18 total depressions, 16 total storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes, all with an ACE of ~194 units. Also, I want this season to be dead quiet at first before becoming a nightmare season. See more information here... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:10, November 28, 2014 (UTC)

It's ALMOST THE NEW YEAR!!!! :D well, it is in Australia.... rarity is best pony 19:21, December 31, 2014 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
The first cape-verde wave of the season to be invested this far east is here. It could become something in the long run, though conditions don't look good for it in the near-future as it gradually moves away from Africa and into the heart of the SAL. 10/30 for now. Ryan1000 18:08, July 29, 2015 (UTC)


 * If this is the same system, it's down to 0/0. What a fail! The Atlantic is too hostile, it's taking so long to get Danny. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 16:48, August 1, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now it's down and out. Steve, believe it or not, in terms of storms, we are about a month ahead of climatology and well ahead of last year. However, we have yet to see a hurricane in the Atlantic. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:14, August 2, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: Near Florida
A new AOI has formed in Apalachee Bay, very close to Florida, and is producing limited shower activity per the NHC. Upper-level winds are not going to be conductive for development as the system treks over land these next few days. Regardless, chances of formation are 10% for both the next two and five days. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:17, August 2, 2015 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
invest'd. i'd say 10/0 for this.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:45, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * It won't develop...it'll just be a rainy day for portions of the southeast. Better to put it at 0/0. Ryan1000 15:11, August 3, 2015 (UTC)
 * I agree, it's just a failed invest. It just won't ever develop, and will instead just bring rainy conditions to the southeast. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:57, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * Upper-level winds will likely kill all chances of 95L developing. However, since portions of the Southeast are in drought, there can still be some benefits from this invest. On the contrary, as Bob Henson notes, Tampa has gotten some four inches of rain in five hours from 95L, and this has caused some water rescues to be executed. So I wouldn't call 95L the worst fail ever. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:21, August 3, 2015 (UTC)


 * uh oh... it has 40/40 chances of development. i'd say 40/70 because of the organization. Danny for tonight anyone? EDIT: it has ongoing recon.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:31, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * The invest has actually shot down to 10/10 over the past several hours. The Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found gale-force winds well to the southeast and east of its center. It's also inching closer to land as we speak, and it only has a short window to become something as of now. In fact, it may not ever develop. All it'll do now is that it'll bring some rain showers to the Carolinas. It would have to pull a Jose (2011) to become a TC at this point, but that has the lowest chance ever of happening. I would appreciate it if the Atlantic could produce a C1+ hurricane before my birthday! The currently occurring El Nino is just making the basin pretty hostile, and I hope this season won't get as pathetic as 2013 was. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:54, August 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Unfortunately, it might be even worse than 2013. CSU and NOAA lowered their seasonal predictions today and now call for a season with only 8 named storms, 2 hurricanes and 1 major (CSU), and 6-10 named storms, 2-4 hurricanes, and 1 major (NOAA). This could be one of the quietest seasons ever, if that pans out. As of now though, this pretty much sums up the Atlantic. Ryan1000 21:11, August 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, then this would suck. It would break the curse of hyperactive seasons occurring in half-decade years like 2005 and 1995. And, lol, nice video. Once the Atlantic gets going towards its peak, I hope we see a major hurricane! -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:41, August 7, 2015 (UTC)
 * This remnants of this storm passed through me! Hurricane Cardozo2 23:45, August 11, 2015 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
Another wave coming off of Africa now, this is at 30/40 as it's expected to head west towards the Caribbean over the next 5 days. But with the terrible shear environment the Caribbean has had this season, it probably won't get too big there. But it could become Danny nonetheless. Ryan1000 15:11, August 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * 50/60. Looks a little better than it did earlier today. We're probably going to see this become Danny before it reaches the islands, but it won't last long when it gets in the shear-ridden Caribbean, unless it turns north before reaching there and heads out to sea (in which case, it could become a major). Ryan1000 19:01, August 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * I was surprised this wave was even active when it showed up on the NHC outlook. Organization has continued to improve in 96L, and the agency is stating the invest likely will become a TD in a couple days or so. Personally, I would like to see a Hurricane Danny out of this, as we have had only a streak of moderate TS's this season so far, but it is all dependent on the environment. Chances of formation are still 50% for the next 48 hours, but now 70% for the next five days. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:58, August 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's looking more likely it'll pass by the northern Lesser Antilles in the long run and out to sea from there, assuming it becomes a depression or Danny in the next day or two. If that happens and Danny-to be becomes a hurricane in the long run, then the 2009 and 1991 Danny's will remain the only ones that didn't become hurricanes, but none of Danny's incarnations exceeded category 1 strength. On the other hand, if this stays weak and doesn't become named soon, it'll make it into the Caribbean, which, as I said before, hasn't been particularly kind to TC's thus far this season, and still isn't right now either. Ryan1000 14:40, August 17, 2015 (UTC)

remember that 96L is in the same area as 92' Andrew. (also El Niño) so it has a chance of being maybe a 15% of getting major.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  02:31, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * That's a little scary, because honestly, we don't want to see another Florida disaster in the long run. I don't see that happening though, but you never know what could happen here in the really long run. Now, as of the last time I checked NHC, the invest is currently 60/80. I would really love to see this turn into a Hurricane Danny, because the Atlantic needs some stronger storms IMO, and this one has the greatest chance in the long run to become a hurricane compared to other storms this season. At least we're seeing an Atlantic invest that could potentially not fail. :) -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 03:03, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Organization has continued in 96L, and it looks like a tropical storm already on satellite imagery. Chances of formation are now 90% for both the next two and five days. Also, as much as I want to go against Odile's comment about Andrew (the hurricane), I agree with her. This is about the same time of the year as well Andrew developed, and it moved northwestward, somewhat like 96L is doing right now. Additionally, conditions seemed to be favorable off the U.S. East Coast in 1992, possibly fueling the hurricane's RI, and in 2015, this same area is the most conductive for development. However, I do not think 96L will be as strong as Andrew, and Florida has taken many measures to avoid a repeat of that monster. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:00, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Four
BREAKING NEWS! we have our first cape-verde storm of the year!  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:52, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

We have depression. this one has a chance for (hopefully) major status.

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  16:05, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

i hope this doens't fail like last year's 2L  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:19, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * I don't see it failing. The NHC, in fact, takes this up towards hurricane strength by week's end. Would be awesome to see an Atlantic storm not failing for once, but the Leewards/Windwards are in potential threat territory in the long run. A re-Andrew would be scary but I doubt that would materialize. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:59, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Danny
I'm honestly surprised that we managed to avoid repeating 1997's silent August, lol. 35 kts/1008 mbar as of now. Forecast to reach Category 2 intensity (85 kts) by the end of the forecast period, by then pointed directly at the Lesser Antilles. This could get interesting... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:05, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

yeah. this can have a shot of being major. I hope we don't see a year full of failures.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:02, August 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * Man, the late forecast period with this thing is looking a bit bleak, it looks like the ridge north of Danny will be strengthening and force it farther west instead of stay weak and pull it north just before it reaches the islands and out to sea, which happened to several other storms over the past 5 years, so it's more likely to go into the Caribbean. Worse, it could be a strong category 2 hurricane by that point, which could mean severe damage for parts of the lessers. Though it's not moving particularly fast, and the environment there is only marginally favorable right now, a category 2 hurricane there is all it takes to see some heavy impacts. The last time the Caribbean saw a cat 2 hurricane hit the islands like that was Tomas in 2010, which didn't hit until late October, although Gonzalo of last year, despite it's lower cat 1 intensity, did knock up some of the upper lessers pretty good before hitting Bermuda. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * Hasn't intensified beyond 45 kts/1000 mbar, forecast peak lowered to 70 kts (down 20 from earlier!), noted possibility of dissipation in 5 days. Dry air strikes again... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 04:14, August 20, 2015 (UTC)

Aoi: Near Bermuda
0/30 for now. could become Erika.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  01:02, August 19, 2015 (UTC)


 * It'll probably be a re-Claudette if it does so. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
While the Atlantic continues to be boring and inactive, we're already deep into the season. This means it's about time to do retirements. Some people like Dylan might complain about starting this section early, but I'm just a bit impatient and want to start this section today. So, without further ado...

(Retirement colors:  0%, 1% , 2.5% , 5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))


 * Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - It was the earliest U.S. strike on record, but the damages and deaths won't earn it retirement.


 * Bill: <font color="#77B">2.5% - 7 deaths were caused throughout its path, but damage was minimal. See you in 2021!


 * Claudette: 0% - I consider it an epic fail. The only impacts were rainfall in North Carolina (pre-development) and in Nova Scotia/Newfoundland.

Anyone else want to do theirs now? You can use my color idea if you like. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 00:17, August 10, 2015 (UTC)

My retirements: +<font color="#666666">0.5%
 * Ana:  0% — Nah, a tropical storm


 * Bill y : 15% — A severe tropical storm on a scale, well nah.

Hurricane Cardozo2 23:45, August 11, 2015 (UTC)
 * Claudette: <font color="#666666">0.5% — Who would retire this?


 * D :D odile is back!

•An na and Elsa a: NaN% - meh...

•Bill Clinton : 0.5% - meh...

•Claudette: NaN% - u wot m8? <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  18:32, August 16, 2015 (UTC)

Puffle is here with more lame science stuff Retirements at a glance!!1

Ana: <font color="#AAC">1% - Surprised me to see a pre-season storm, especially with an El Nino.

Bill: <font color="#Acc">2.7% -Sorry Billy, you're still not ready

Post-season changes
You know it's bad when the latest storm's TCR is out, and we're not even halfway with the season.-- <font face="Courier New">Isaac829 <font face="Courier New">E-Mail  02:23, August 18, 2015 (UTC)


 * Yeah...with Claudette's TCR just released we may have to open the TCR section of the betting pools early again this year. We'll wait until later though. Ryan1000 02:08, August 19, 2015 (UTC)