Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/Irene

AOI:Off Africa
The wave.

Added by CobraStrike

This organized wave shows promise as it begins a 7-day traverse across the Atlantic from Africa to the Caribbean. First it has to deal with some SAL but after that its all on its own. Watch out...this may be our next big story. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 00:41, August 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Up to 10% now. Yqt1001 01:53, August 18, 2011 (UTC
 * The more sophisticated models have shown very good consistency on this wave's track and intensity. Hurricane landfall on S Florida. First time the GFS model has been consistent this whole season. Yqt1001 04:52, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * If 93L doesn't become Harvey, this one certainly could. Things are about to get interesting here. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 05:25, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

97L.INVEST
Invested Yqt1001 14:01, August 18, 2011 (UTC)

The invest has an incredible amount of spin to it, but only limited shower activity. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 21:21, August 18, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's only at 20%, but 98L east of 97L is much more well-organized and could more easily become Harvey if the wave near CA can't make it by tomorrow. It's at 80% for the next two days, but it pretty much ran out of time, and it probrably won't develop. This wave scares me more because if it can develop earlier, say once it reaches the lessers, then the Gulf coast is in deep sh!t. They haven't been hit hard by any severe hurricane since Ike in 2008, and everyone else has missed us, particularly in North Carolina and Florida. And because 98L is heading WNW and this one is heading west, it could still run into parts of the SAL, which will weaken it a bit, and it likely won't affect land signifigantly since storms that develop early have little chance of affecting the U.S. and Caribbean. The Bermuda High isn't in the same position as it was last year but it still will recurve any strong hurricanes out to sea if they develop too early. This wave really scares me in the long run. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 00:43, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40%, 97L gained a lot more convection near the center. Apporaching the Lesser Antilles. Another Caribbean cruiser this year. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 18:28, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * HWRF prediction...The HWRF predicts another potential big cane'. It predicts that 97L will bring more terror to Hispaniola, making landfall as a 976 mbar tropical storm in 90 hours??? Anyways, 97L is exxpected to emerge into the Atlantic Ocean. The 128 (6 day) outlook from the HWRF sees then-Irene or Jose as a category 1 964 mbar hurricane... who knows what happens next, a Miami strike? CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 18:53, August 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are quite conflicted on this one to say the least. GFDL doesn't develop it at all while the GFS explodes the thing into a huge hurricane, moving it south of the big islands and up into eastern Gulf as a monster storm pointed right at the Gulf Coast! The 12Z GFS is really interesting. Not only does it go nuts with 97L, but it develops something else off Africa behind 98L, which it develops but takes out to sea and doesn't intensify much. The ECMWF, the same model that correctly forecast Emily's dissipation near Hispaniola, has a similar forecast. It has 97L brushing the southern coast of Hispaniola but remaining intact and strengthening further south of Cuba and heading towards the Gulf. And like the GFS, it also develops 98L but dissipates it fairly quickly and brings in another storm behind it off Africa. This is getting very interesting. -- SkyFury 20:39, August 19, 2011 (UTC)

Things are indeed getting very interesting. Now it's at 60% as it continues to rocket west at 20 mph. I think it already has a cyclonic swirl to it, and it could become Irene(or 9) as soon as tomorrow. Stay tuned. The thing about 97L is the current computer models are taking it onto a collision course with Hispaniola so it could just be a re-Emily if it fails to intensify enough. Ryan1000 02:09, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

The GFS forecast is frickin scary man. Back to back runs now, it has it as a strong hurricane headed right for the Gulf Coast. If anything, the 18Z run made it even more intense. HWRF takes it a little further north, clipping the peninsula of Haiti and the eastern tip of Cuba, but still has it headed for the Florida Staits as a Category 2 hurricane in five days. This one is officially making me nervous, especially seeing as I go to school in Mobile, in fact I'm headed back there tomorrow. Moving into my new apartment. -- SkyFury 04:04, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Even though the GFS brings 97L (future Irene) closer to home (greetings from New England...), it won't be that strong and it will stay offshore if the 6z GFS run is correct, though it does forecast a re-Fay to some degree (strengthening over Florida, dumping a lot of rain there as well), so it doesn't scare me too much. As for HWRF, the 6z run gives me the creeps; think Fay's Caribbean life, but as a Cat 3/4 instead of a TS. If this thing slams into Haiti as a major hurricane, there could will be hundreds dead. We need to watch this thing like a hawk; if that recent HWRF run turns out to be correct, it will make Arlene and Harvey look like little worms (though I still carry the fear that Harvey could be a re-Matthew). Oh, and it's at 80% now. --HurricaneMaker99 14:25, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Most of the models are in agreement (Irene) will head across Haiti, eastern Cuba, and after that Florida. The million-dollar question is how strong will it get by then. If it fails to get past a minor TS in strength, then it will just pass through the high mountains in Haiti and die like Emily did. If it gets to 100 mph or stronger before it reaches Haiti, it will probrably be too strong to take down. And HM99, I think we all thought Tomas of last year would kill hundreds of people in Haiti, but in the end Tomas only killed a measly 41 people. In comparison to Hanna and Gordon, they got pretty lucky from him. Ryan1000 14:40, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * The thing is, though, Tomas was only a Cat 1 when it was near Haiti, and it didn't even make landfall there. It was a best-case scenario. What if a Cat 3 strikes Haiti dead-on, just south or southwest of Port-au-Prince? --HurricaneMaker99 14:52, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you were one of those 41 people/their family I wouldn't think that would be too measly. Also remember that the NHC has Tomas making landfall as a category 3 storm..not a 1 like he actually did. Yqt1001 14:53, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Go ask Hanna and Gordon how they did in Haiti then. Gordon only brushed by Haiti as a tropical storm, and it still killed over 1,000 people from deadly flooding and mudslides. Hanna was a similar storm. It became a hurricane as it neared Haiti but it weakened to a TS as it brushed the northern part of the country and killed over 500 people. (Irene) would have to work like crazy to hit them as a major hurricane; it only has, say 3 or 4 days until it will hit them. Also, Haiti's track record for retirement is just horrible, given that they didn't retire either Hanna or Gordon, they probrably won't retire anything, or hardly anything. The only two names they could have retired in the history of our 75 retirees in history were Flora and Jeanne, but given they were severe in other places(Cuba, the DR and Florida, respectively), I don't want to use them for their track record, since they didn't hit only Haiti. Inez of 1966 could have been retired by them too but it devastated Tampico, Mexico and other areas of Mexico and the Caribbean rather than just Haiti. Anyways, Haiti isn't the only country in (Irene's) gunsights. Besides, we don't want to see that, deadly hurricanes are BAD things. As I mentioned, it hurts you to see hundreds of innocent people get killed from hurricanes, but fortunately the death toll from hurricanes is dropping in undeveloped countries in the world, but it still remains unfortunately high in certain places... Sidr hit Bangladesh in 2007 and killed over 3,400 people, but it was a fortunate reduction from the hundreds of thousands of people that perished in 1991 and 1970. Stay tuned. If you want to see my latest blog post about (Irene), go here. Ryan1000 15:56, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now it is at 90%. Keep in mind 97L is a huge wave...about as big as Quebec or something. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 20:56, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Montana, maybe, but this thing could easily fit into Quebec. --HurricaneMaker99 21:24, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Another HWRF prediction, another major hurricane headed for the U.S. HWRF may actually gain some notoriety (or honor, if they are right, you never know) for creating some big whooper models. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 21:43, August 20, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irene
Recon found winds of 45 kns (50 mph). We have our ninth storm already. Up on ATCF :| Darren23Edits 22:52, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it appears to be strenghtening to.Allanjeffs 23:11, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eh, we don't need the no joke part. And the latest official forecast calls for Irene to become a minimal hurricane as it approaches Haiti and then possibly affects Florida as a TS. However, if it fails to intensify enough, it may die out after making landfall there just like Emily did earlier this year. It all depends on how fast it strengthens IMO. It's heading west pretty fast, at 22 mph, but it will need to get it's act together pretty fast for it to hit as a powerful storm. For the record, 2005 had 5 storms form in August. Thus far we have also had a 5-storm August. If we can get 3 more storms in this month, we will already be jumping up to 2005's pace. However, most of our storms have been short-lived and weak; heck, the first 8 storms of this season didn't become hurricanes, the longest known streak recorded. The EPac also did this in 2003. Perhaps Irene can end that streak. If we can get Lee before August 28, we will start setting records for earliest storm formation. Ryan1000 23:34, August 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * And speaking of rapid storm formation, Irene is the third earliest date for a seasons' ninth storm. Only Hurricane Irene of 2005 and Tropical Storm Nine of 1936 formed earlier. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:58, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * According to Ryan we tie 1936...anyways. The NHC is really unsure about the long term forecast for this, stating that nearly anything can happen after 3 days. Yqt1001 01:01, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Its true we tie 1936 for the nine storm Allanjeffs 01:04, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * When 3 models show a major hurricane (2 of them over Florida), I think the models see something going on... [2] Thing is, 2 of them (the 2 that go to Florida) show the storm strengthening over Cuba, and the one that brings it to category 5 shows it going through the Caribbean...These models started with the HH data, and the 3 all show a hurricane in 12-24 hours. Yqt1001 01:21, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Haiti still remains the core of most of the models though, and this storm will have to develop very fast because it only has 2 or 3 days until it will arrive in Hispaniola, and you know how Emily felt after she struck them earlier in this month. She basically died out. Could the same Happen to Irene? We'll have to wait and see. NOGAPS is the only big computer model I see that doesn't take it onto or near Haiti, but rather near the northern DR and then onto Savannah, Georgia far down the road. GFDL takes it south of Haiti, into Jamaica, and then becoming a monster cat 5 in the western Caribbean sea/GOM about 5 days from now. SHIPS takes Irene to 105 mph in two days, but down to 70 mph in 5 days. How strong Irene becomes will determine its destiny as it rolls across the Caribbean. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 01:25, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The LLC has been "swallowed" under the COC way faster than the NHC and the models predicted..strengthening should happen here on in. Because the center has been pushed up, the models should also start pushing up too..up to the ridge, which will steer Irene onto every island from where she is now to Cuba, then up to Florida without making landfall on all the islands but Cuba and some of the Lesser Antilles. At least thats what the 0z GFS shows, which is what I fully agree with. Yqt1001 04:06, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The more it interacts with land, the more it will weaken on the way. If Irene can head far enough west then the worst-case scenario is it will miss Hispaniola to the south, Jamacia to the north, and then explode before buzz sawing across Cuba and Florida as a very powerful major hurricane like Dennis and Charley did. If it hits Haiti, it will get knocked down hard. As I mentioned with Emily earlier this year, Hispaniola is not a happy place for hurricanes. Still, stay tuned. This storm is rapidly unfolding as it heads into and across the Caribbean. Ryan1000 04:26, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The situation is very unknown atm..here's a good quote from the official NHC forecast showing the uncertainty today. "IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH AS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON THE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL." Yqt1001 04:45, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * This little bitch is reminding me of late-season pests like Paloma and Omar. When they are in the right conditions, they take advantage of them as much as possible. If this thing heads further westward due to it's rapid forward motion, the folks in Jamacia, the Caymans, and Cuba better hope it doesn't strengthen as much or Irene will kick the living sh!t out of them. This thing definitely bears watching. Stay tuned everyone. This could get ugly. Ryan1000 05:08, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC confirms the center relocation at the 2am advisory. Winds left at 50mph, recon might go in and find a strong TS tomorrow.. Yqt1001 05:52, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

They're still keeping it on that collision course with Hispaniola though, and it's now forecast to be 85 mph when it arrives at Haiti in about two days. However, it cannot be ruled out it could go beyond that, given it's well-organized structure and the favorable conditions ahead of it. Ryan1000 06:03, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

Irene will cause more damage than Emily if she's a hurricane. BTW, I've made a blog post regarding my own forecast track. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:26, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * This thing's starting to unfold pretty quickly, but I wonder how its trip to Hispaniola will turn out to be. Hopefully not the best one, we don't want a catastrophic storm to devastate us here in the states, but we don't want it to be deadly there either. Ryan1000 17:08, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not usually one to quote a blog, but this guy correctly forecasted Arlene, Don, Emily and Gert so I'll let him have his fame and show you guys what he thinks on Irene.. [3] It is a wait and see with what happens, BUT what he said about the center being pushed north to the mid level circulation was just confirmed by the recon. It's starting folks, the tropical storm streak is likely to come to an end shortly! Yqt1001 17:30, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NHC still keeps Irene at 50 mph though, and what he said was Irene could scrape northern Hispaniola and hit Puerto Rico, later heading towards the east coast if it continues to shift northward. However, it will still take a beating from the mountains there and if it keeps on going at the westerly pace where it is now, it will end up crossing the entire island of Hispaniola, most signifigantly impacting the DR. Irene needs to change course fast or it will likely end up dying over the island, if not barely being a depression when it's through with them. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 17:41, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Pressure down to 999mb..confirmation that it is stacked..all it needs is deep convection at the core and it's a hurricane..PR will only hamper that a bit, this thing is set. :/ Ryan, the path that Irene will take is still up to debate, but I agree with him, and I have since the center relocated norht the 2nd time. Yqt1001 17:45, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * But I also agree with the NHC, there isn't a single part of hispaniola that isn't in the path of this thing. If it takes the northern end of the path, it iwill chip the northern end of PR and miss Hispaniola to the north. It will parallell southern Hispaniola if it takes the southern end of the path, but if it takes the center(where most of the models are predicting), it will cross the entire island and could die out from interaction with the high mountains. But it's still a bit too soon to tell. Ryan1000 17:53, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here's Puerto Rico radar Irene has an eyewall, but the north part is fragmented. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 21:21, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene is actually moving SW or WSW based on radar obs. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 22:59, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * I was noticing that, I'm not sure why it would be? Supportstorm 23:10, August 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * 8PM update: Winds up to 60mph, presssure down to 995mb. Direction is still WNW. Slowing down to 15mph. Yqt1001 23:55, August 21, 2011 (UTC)

It's heading much further north than it was anticipated to, but rescently it turned straight west. It will likely head towards southern Puerto Rico, but it's trying it's hardest to not hit Hispaniola. Chances are that will not happen; it can't fight the atmospheric conditions around it for long enough. I'm still expecting it to hit the eastern tip of the DR and cross Hispaniola from there, it's now heading just south of Puerto Rico, or could make landfall on southern Puerto Rico and will then hit Hispaniola. I highly doubt it will head on the northern part of Puerto Rico and miss Hispaniola to the north. That just can't happen; the Bermuda high is in it's way of that. If it can head west far enough like it rescently did now, it will cross all of Hispaniola and die. Irene is trying her hardest not to do that. Stay tuned on what's happening here. Ryan1000 02:02, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * 75mph surface winds found by recon..now NHC will only have to confirm that the first hurricane of the year formed. It really is just a wait and see situation for now. Also, I still think Irene is going WNW, but we'll see what the NHC says at 11pm EST. Yqt1001 02:25, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * We also have newly-formed 14W in WPac, and a different storm named Mina by PAGASA also in WPac. However, Irene really is the big story out there, and we must keep our eyes out, more importantly the folks in DR. Ryan1000 02:52, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC leaves it at 70mph, probably to confirm the convection sustains itself. Still going WNW and pressure down to 993mb. Track shifts more northward..following the path I was thinking. Yqt1001 02:55, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * It tried. It looks like it'll make landfall in Puerto Rico in, say 6-9 hours, then cross the DR and Cuba or the Bahamas. And Harvey stays a TD; it could still reintensify into a TS. Most of the models agree on Irene making landfall in Hispaniola, with only UKMET taking it south of Hispaniola and Cuba and then into the GOM as a monster storm. GFDL is more what i'm thinking, taking it across most of Hispaniola nad northern Cuba before entering the GOM as a poweful storm. GFS, NGFDL, and HWRF all take it into South Carolina 4-5 days down the road. Only NOGAPS takes it as far as North Carolina. Whether or not Irene hits Hispaniola, or hw long it does hit them, will determine it's future relationship in the U.S. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 02:59, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Personally, I think this still might have a chance at a hurricane before PR..so I'll be up until 2am tonight to see what will happen for sure. This storm is a wait and see storm for sure, full of surprises. Yqt1001 03:15, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

See my latest blog post for more information. I think it may have a chance to hit 75 or 80 mph when it reaches them, but it's just about to move onshore. Keep your eyes out. She just has so many options open to her. Ryan1000 03:19, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * And Irene failed to become a hurricane before PR landfall, so now we can only wait and see how she emerges off of PR. Yqt1001 05:07, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Irene
You all spoke too soon! Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:08, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 80mph I think she will be our first nominate for retirement of this hurricane season. Allanjeffs 13:10, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG! I was not expecting to wake up to an 80mph storm today! I mean, did this thing strengthen over PR!?! It looks like it is nearly on the coast still! Anyways, congrats Irene on becoming t he first hurricane of the year! I don't know how she did it, but she did it. She's full of surprises this storm... Yqt1001 13:32, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * She strenghed over Puerto Rico. Allanjeffs 13:40, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bah, that's what I figured. I knew I shouldn't have gone to bed last night. Anyways, current forecast predicts a strong category 2 landfall on the US. Presonally, if Irene stays as strong as the NHC predicts over Hispaniola, there will be the first major hurricane landfall in 6 years on the US. Yqt1001 13:45, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * And also the first east coast landfalling hurricane period since Katrina, and the first east coast landfalling major hurricane since Fran (unless you count Bonnie '98). --HurricaneMaker99 14:12, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * No, Jeanne in 2004 was the last landfalling east coast major, unless you mean most recent North Carolina major hurricane landfall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 14:35, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * D'oh! Yep, forgot about Jeanne, dunno how that happened. Still, it could be the first east coast MH landfall outside of Florida since Fran/Bonnie. --HurricaneMaker99 14:40, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * D'oh! Yep, forgot about Jeanne, dunno how that happened. Still, it could be the first east coast MH landfall outside of Florida since Fran/Bonnie. --HurricaneMaker99 14:40, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

Now forecast to be a Cat 3 upon landfall in SC. --HurricaneMaker99 15:06, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye, a cloud-filled eye: [4] --HurricaneMaker99 17:01, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I also spy dry air, which will cause some immediate problems in the short term. In addition with land interaction this shouldn't explode in front of our eyes until tomorrow. :| Bah, this is looking very bad. The hurricane season has arrived everyone. Yqt1001 17:06, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't think Irene will be a Re-Hugo or re Gracie, but it is starting to remind me of 1893... This could be the first big storm of the season. Currently forecast to hit 115 mph in Charelston, SC. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 18:21, August 22, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow what a night. I sleep and then come home from school and find Irene coming from tropical storm to a predicted major on the EAST COAST. Get ready for the first major evacuation from anywhere in months. But damn the hurricane wind field is puny, like the size of Houston or Indianapolis. The highest chance for a category 4 is so far 4%, that number may rise or drop soon. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 21:34, August 22, 2011 (UTC)

Update statement issued by NHC, Irene upgraded to Cat 2. 85 kts, 981 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 00:02, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * So Irene is now with 100mph I think she is rapidly intensifying. Allanjeffs 00:09, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * And with the update my forecast is obsolete in a matter of minutes. Lets see if Irene bombs. If so, I set my max intensity (right now) at 150-165 mph. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 00:16, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Damn category 2 already, with land interaction and some dry air. This thing is a fighter and is pretty much blowing up even with relatively unfavourable conditions. >.< US better watch out, this storm is worse than I thought. Yqt1001 00:18, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * New wind speed predictions are up, 125mph peak. 110mph at landfall. Yqt1001 00:32, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Weather Channel's saying this could be worse than Isabel; or in other words, on par with Hugo and Hazel 8-{ --HurricaneMaker99 02:37, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now forecast to peak as a Category 4. Forecast landfall location shifted to NC/SC border. --HurricaneMaker99 03:10, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa this thing's taking off. Now it's forecast to peak at 135 mph but if she can keep up the pace she's going at, I wouldn't be surprised if Irene even has an outside shot at C5. This storm has now missed northern Hispaniola and now it's expected to make landfall in NC as at least 115 mph. This could be the first big storm for them since Isabel. Floyd and Fran also hit them pretty good beforehand as well. It's like "I" names are cursed... We've had Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, and Igor all retired in the space of 10 years. Could Irene do that as well? We shall see about that. Of all the big computer models, only NGDFL and NOGAPS take Irene out to sea, GFDL takes it onto the area by Cape Canaveral, HWRF and UKMET take it into SC, and GFS takes Irene onto NC and rocketing onto Long Island and the rest of New England in the long run. It's hard to predict where she will go because the models take it anywhere from the east coast of Florida to missing the east coast altogether. This is what I don't like about hurricanes on the eastern seaboard. They can hit just about anywhere, with no telling if it will change course or not. Ryan1000 03:23, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Sorry I've been MIA. I moved into a new apartment over the weekend and only just got the cable and internet hooked up this afternoon. I had a feeling very early on that this one was going to be trouble. The thing that surprised me was that it jumped this far north this quickly. For a while, it looked like it was going to run itself over the islands. I tell you, this morning's forecast scared the crap out of me. This thing exploded into a hurricane overnight and when I woke up, the forecast had it passing right over my family's condo on St. Simons Island as nearly a major hurricane. Fortunately it's shifted north since then, but even though the models have been trending eastward and northward, I still think this is going to be a big problem for somebody. Anybody living between Savannah, GA and Morehead City, NC needs to be really concerned at this point. Storms that move parallell to the coast are particularly tricky because just a small deviation east or west can drastically change the outcome. Hundreds of miles of coast could be looking at a direct hit from this thing and there may not be much warning. The dynamical models (GFDL, HWRF, etc) have Irene moving much further west. The GFDL brings it in over West Palm Beach as a Cat. 4 while the HWRF rakes the coasts of GA and SC as a Cat. 2 with a probable landfall near Beaufort. The global models on the otherhand have more easterly tracks. The GFS takes it over Cape Fear and eventually over Queens (yes Queens, NY) as a substantial system. The 12Z ECMWF follows the NHC forecast almost exactly and also implies a possible threat to NYC. This could be exhilarating. -- SkyFury 05:06, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's already starting to make some news, but the track is still unceretain. The cold front off the east coast could still push Irene out to sea, but it is also possible that won't happen, and that will happen if Irene is forced westward far enough by the Bermuda High. I think that it could miss the east coast, but it could end up everywhere from Cape Canaveral to Cape Hatteras, or if it can make it far enough north, *gulp*, New England? This thing has devastation written all over it. The big question is where. I have no idea what this storm could do, but I don't like this one bit. It could be the worst U.S. hurricane in years. Stay tuned everyone. This could get real ugly really fast. Ryan1000 15:41, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene probably could even be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall, if it's really bad. At this rate, Irene could be worse than Ike (in terms of damage). Also, the "I" hurricane curse continues, (every season's "I" named storm since 1989 except 2007 has reached hurricane status). Hurricane Andrew (444) 20:12, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene now 90 mph, weaker by 10 mph, but still strong. THe NHC is now looking for a North Carolina skid (like what Gabrielle 2007 did) and a landfall on south New Jersey as a 85 mph category 1. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 21:24, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC expects this weakening to last less than 12 hours, with the peak of Irene still expected to be 125mph. Yqt1001 21:54, August 23, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yes, and although Inez and Ione were the only two "I" retirees before Iris of 2001, since then, we have had 6 "I" retirees. Iris, Isidore, Isabel, and Ivan 4 straight years in a row, and the replacements of Isidore and Ivan, Ike and Igor, were also retired. I think a new adage I could make should be beware storms with "I" names... The end of the forecast period takes it rolling right past the east coast right into New Jersey as an 85 mph storm. If that forecast holds, Irene could be a repeat of the 1893 NYC hurricane, or worse... Keep your eyes out for this storm. Although it weakened, it's likely only going to be temporary and it will continue to strengthen, likely to become a major hurricane in the next few days, and due to it's rapid forward motion as it approaches New England, it could be a 100 mph C2 when it hits. This storm is not to be taken lightly, but it certainly is waking up the eastern seaboard, I hope. I have made yet another blog post about Irene as it targets the east coast. It definitely is making the news. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:18, August 23, 2011 (UTC)

Pressure down to 969mb. Winds still 90mph, I think the NHC will find the winds WAAAY stronger when one of the recon planes gets in there. Yqt1001 00:00, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...And the eye comes back into view after being clouded over for 4-5 hours today. Here we go again! 99.58.60.158 01:21, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * First the drastic pressure drop, and now the eye is becoming crystal clear on IR imagery... I'm almost afraid to see what news the 11pm advisory will bring. --HurricaneMaker99 02:13, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eyewall has closed off, dry air still bugging her a bit, but strengthening should start now. But I swear this thing is a MH. The convection is firing around in a circle around the eye, pressures are low enough and this is by far the best looking category 1 storm I have ever seen. Not to mention one of the category 1 storms with the lowest pressure I have ever seen. Yqt1001 04:51, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still 90 mph, unbelievably. 969 is a crazy pressure drop. This thing seems primed for strengthening. The satellite presentation has greatly improved. I agree with the NHC in that I don't think the upper level winds are conducive enough for rapid intensification, but it would not surprise me if it reached Category 4 strength, though I don't think it will hit anything at that intensity. And while a Category 3 at Morehead City or Cape Hatteras won't be any fun, it's definately not as bad as one at Myrtle Beach or Oak Island. I'm growing increasingly concerned about the threat to New England. The current Day 5 forecast point takes it right over Nassau County, NY as a 75 knot hurricane, just 20 miles SE of Manhattan. That's too close. The GFDN is currently the only model that takes it directly over NYC. It takes it into Gravesend Bay and into Brooklyn. The GFS has it crossing Long Island very near where Gloria made landfall in 1985 and takes it right over downtown Boston. Given the eastward trend in the model forecasts, I think the GFS scenario is more likely and that Irene probably will not seriously threaten NYC. I also don't think it will that strong when it hits Long Island, not more than 80 knots. This storm could wind up being very similar to Gloria from both a track and impact standpoint. And don't worry Bostonites, even if it does pass over you, I seriously doubt it will still be a hurricane at that point. It may not even be tropical anymore. All this said, Irene still poses a very serious threat to eastern North Carolina. -- SkyFury 05:07, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

Here we go, restrengthened into a category 2 storm. 100mph winds. 966mb pressure.. Yqt1001 06:16, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Irene
Here we go. 100 kts, 957 mbar per the latest interim advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 12:02, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's forecast to peak at 125 mph, but given the sattelite imagery on Irene, I wouldn't be surprised if it can jump to ~140 mph as it slowly heads WNW. The latest forecast still calls for Irene to hit only as a category 1 near providence, RI, but if it can get stronger latrer today, that forecast could easily change. Ryan1000 12:18, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * I see winds are starting to catch up to pressure. Pressure has actually gone up since last night though. Yqt1001 13:50, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene could be undergoing an ERC, but it is expected to gain more steam through later today and it has a good chance to hit New England as a C2 at least, especially if she hits a 135-140 mph C4 later today. Ryan1000 13:57, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's forecast to maintain 80 mph winds INTO MAINE. That's it, this isn't fun anymore, now this is downright scary. --HurricaneMaker99 15:00, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * For the record, if Irene was brought hurricane force winds into Maine, it would be only the seventh time EVER that happened (the 1869 Saxby Gale, Hurricane Carol (1953), Hurricane Edna (1954), Hurricane Donna (1960), Hurricane Gerda (1969), and Hurricane Gloria (1985) were the other six to do that). Also, at this rate, Irene could be the first Category 4 U.S. strike since Charley in 2004. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:21, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * For the record, if Irene was brought hurricane force winds into Maine, it would be only the seventh time EVER that happened (the 1869 Saxby Gale, Hurricane Carol (1953), Hurricane Edna (1954), Hurricane Donna (1960), Hurricane Gerda (1969), and Hurricane Gloria (1985) were the other six to do that). Also, at this rate, Irene could be the first Category 4 U.S. strike since Charley in 2004. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:21, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * For the record, if Irene was brought hurricane force winds into Maine, it would be only the seventh time EVER that happened (the 1869 Saxby Gale, Hurricane Carol (1953), Hurricane Edna (1954), Hurricane Donna (1960), Hurricane Gerda (1969), and Hurricane Gloria (1985) were the other six to do that). Also, at this rate, Irene could be the first Category 4 U.S. strike since Charley in 2004. Hurricane Andrew (444) 15:21, August 24, 2011 (UTC)

An 80 mph hurricane isn't a very strong one though; normally hurricanes with 100 mph or higher winds do signifigant damage from storm surge, ect. Weaker hurricanes do damage from heavy rains and flooding. Rainfall will be a less signifigant impact from Irene because it's going to be moving very fast when it hits New England. The latest NHC forecast leaves Irene at 115 mph, but pressure dropped a milibar and it's heading NW at 12 mph. It has a descent shot at further strengthening, but how strong it can get today and tomorrow will determine how bad it will be for New England down the road. Ryan1000 15:16, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It'll still be the worst storm I've ever seen, though. (Sorry for sounding like such a n00b; this is my first 'cane.)
 * On the lighter side, did you know that the name Irene has its roots in the Greek word for "peace"? --HurricaneMaker99 15:39, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * 120mph winds now. Pressure down to 954mb. Yqt1001 17:58, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now it's forecast to be a C4 by later tonight/tomorrow. However, Irene is expected to only nick at the outer banks as a MH and then head into New England, particularly The eastern end of Long Island and then in Rhode Island, by then possibly as a 100 mph storm. This storm looks like it will be a re-Bob or perhaps a re-Carol of 1954. It's heading much farther east than the 1938 storm did or Gloria of 1985, but it will likely end up farther west than Edna and the 1869 Saxby Gale storm. A lot of the models still do turn Irene off the east coast, but 60 miles can make the difference between life and death, especially with these "nor-easter" 'canes. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:56, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Think about it. Irene is forecast to be a 115 mph category 3 once it nears North Carolina. If it does bring major hurricane force winds to the state, it will the first one to do so in 15 years, the last being Fran of 1996. And look what Irene is expected to be near Long Island: a 100 mph category 2. This will be the first time in 21 years since Bill of 1990 that a category 2 storm has affected New York/Long Island. And by then, Irene will be HUGE. Irene is already big now. Oh, and Irene temporarilly lost an eye. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 23:06, August 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Uh, Bob of 1991 you mean. It is still forecast to gain steam as it heads northward, and CobraStrike, Fran hit the heart of North Carolina as a category 3 hurricane and caused not only a massive storm surge damage, but further inland flooding as well, only about two months after Bertha. Irene is only forecast to clip the Outer Banks as a minimal major hurricane. Emily of 1993 only clipped by the Outer Banks as a 115 mph major hurricane, and it did very little damage. What i'm more concerned about is what it will do to New England... If it clips the Outer Banks of NC and does nothing else, then damage will be minimized. Emily of '93 did just that. New England is what i'm worried about, not NC so much. Yes there likely will be heavy rain and destruction there on Cape Hatteras, but it won't be as bad as it will(or could) be for the folks up in the northeast. Ryan1000 00:01, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think Irene is going through an EWRC. Yqt1001 01:27, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * It looks like the northeastern part of the eyewall is starting to erode, but it may quickly get it's act together and intensify into a C4 tomorrow. Either Irene is getting a taste of that shear or it's succumbing to dry air. That's what's weakening it's northeastern quadrant, not an EWRC. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 01:35, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * While it may not be undergoing EWRC, the people on Wunderground certainly think it is, but yes. The northeast eyewall is eroding a bit. I do spy concentric banding though, and its main act is not here yet. Anyways, NHC hunters found extrapolated pressures of 950.8mbar.
 * Irene's northeast quadrant has now rebuilt, and now it looks like it's undergoing an EWRC, it looks like a larger circulation will overrun it's smaller inner core, which may hinder it from strengthening as it will expand in size, but it will also weaken slower as it heads towards eastern Long Island and Rhode Island, which spells bad news for the folks down there. Stay tuned for more info. Ryan1000 03:15, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Pressure still dropping, now 952mb. Recon is finding stronger flight level winds on the outer eyewall rather than the inner, pretty much confirming the EWRC. I still think this storm can reach category 4 strength, however as it grows it is going to take more time for it to spin up..pretty much completely ruling out category 5 winds. Yqt1001 03:25, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

The southern end of that cold front is still shearing parts of Irene though, and it has a chance to peak where it is now or hit 135 mph briefly, but not too much stronger, i'm thinking. It will slowly move towards the northwest today, during which Irene has her last oppurtunity at C4 strength, by tomorrow it will rocket past North Carolina's Outer Banks(latest NHC forecast calls for a 105 mph landfall on Cape Hatteras), and by Saturday I can see a landfall from this thing at the eastern Long Island/Rhode Island area, possibly still as a 100 mph storm. The threat from Irene cannot be ruled out, but anything past 135 mph seems unlikely as of yet. Still, stay tuned. Ryan1000 04:18, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Winds dropped to 115mph, pressure down to 950mb. Second time winds have gone down and pressure has gone down. Last time this happened Irene jumped from a category 1 storm to a category 3 storm in 2 advisories. Will she jump to category 4? Maybe.

ERCs are tricky things. It's almost like Tommy John surgery for a pitcher. He can come back and pitch better than ever or he might struggle to regain his prior form. It's the same with hurricanes and ERCs: they can come back like gangbusters or never restrengthen at all (Opal is a good example of the latter). Despite the fact that shear has increased a little, I don't think the latter will be the case with Irene. Pressures have actually fallen rather than risen. The near term threat hasn't changed. The Outer Banks are still looking at a major hurricane, which could get really ugly, especially if that storm surge gets into those interior bays. I fear North Carolina may be looking at a repeat of the severe and widespread coastal flooding they saw with Isabel in 2003, possibly worse. As bad as it looks for NC, I'm more concerned about the northeast. The latest model runs are scary. A few of the most respected models (GFS, ECMWF and HWRF) have all shifted markedly west. The GFS now takes it over New Jersey, driving the worst of the storm surge right into New York harbor. It drives the right-front eyewall right over Manhattan Island, though the hurricane has to pass over much more land in this scenario before it gets to New York. This sudden shift makes me really nervous. And I'm hearing very grave language from a lot of experienced forecasters. Dave Bernard, meteorologist for CBS News Miami, said there are really two scenarios with Irene: bad and worse. That's not good. These are very densely populated coast areas being targeted here. And equally scary is how few people in the northeast are taking this seriously. Another thing to point out is that the northeast has been heavily saturated by rain over the past couple of weeks, making it very susceptible to flooding. This is really scary folks. I think it may be about time to start praying. -- SkyFury 07:50, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

I'm a bit surprised the models have shifted west since last night, Irene is starting to curve as it approaches the trough, and it's heading NNW now, which will soon be north and then NNE. Either Irene shifted farther west than anticipated last night or it will beat the front sooner than we thought. And i'm further surprised it's winds are still falling, despite the pressure falling as well. The latest forecast takes her back up to 125 mph and then hitting NC as a major hurricane, and far down the road, it could pass dangerously close to the folks in NYC... The last major hurricane to directly impact New York City was the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, which hit central North Carolina as a powerful storm and remained a 115 mph C3 when it passed over NYC from the south. The thing is back in 1821, NYC was nothing compared to what they are today. Furthermore, the most rescent hurricane to directly hit them from the south was the 1893 hurricane, but it only hit them as an 85 mph C1. Since then, nothing, but they have had lots of very close calls. Although I think Irene will rebuild her structure, it has to happen later today or very early tomorrow. By tomorrow afternoon or Saturday morning, Irene will be heading onto the North Carolina coast, and by Saturday evening or on Sunday we could see her bearing down on the folks in New England as a ferocious 100 mph storm. And god forbid Irene will pass over NYC at that intensity. If Irene hits New England, I would prefer a landfall on Rhode Island or eastern Long Island(or miss them altogether) rather than take it over NYC. True it will be destructive if it hits there as a 100 mph storm but it will be a lot better than if it passes NYC as a 100 mph storm. Stay tuned. The people in New England need to leave NOW. Ryan1000 15:35, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Who think the name Irene will be retire by the damage it has cause until now? Allanjeffs 16:31, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * If Irene were to miraculously spare the east coast from any significant impacts, I'd give it a 50-65% chance of retirement, since it's already caused about ~$150 million in damages in the Caribbean, and it's still beating the crap out of the Bahamas as we speak. Up until now, I think the Bahamas are most likely to want Irene gone. HurricaneMaker99 17:27, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * It looks like the southern side of the eye wall has gotten really weakened..which might be holding back intensification for now. Once that fixes itself out..probably very quickly, I can still see a category 4 storm here. Yqt1001 16:53, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm gonna agree with the NHC here; high-end Cat 3 sounds about right to me. Of course, if it could pull an Earl and avoid restrengthening altogether, that would be perfect. --HurricaneMaker99 17:27, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Bahamas have seen much worse than Irene though, the deadliest hurricane in their history was the 1926 Nasau Hurricane, which killed more than 250 people there. So IMO it's all up to the U.S. if Irene will really go, if it hits the east coast hard enough, but the Bahamas see hurricanes like Irene just about every 2-3 years. It's not that unusual, really. However, it is certainly nerve-wracking for the folks on the eastern seaboard. Ryan1000 18:12, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hmmm... Irene hasn't changed at all in intensity today(by that I mean top winds)... That being said, it might be weaker than a major hurricane when it ends up in North Carolina, but it can't be ruled out just yet. Keep your eyes out for her. She's far from over. I still stand by my forecast of a 100 mph landfall somewhere in southern New England. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 21:08, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Dry air got sucked into her southern core during the EWRC so until she repairs that she might not strengthen. Pressure is continuing to drop though. Recon found a pressure of 948mb! Yqt1001 21:21, August 25, 2011 (UTC)

Irene has proven that she can fix her problems rapidly again. Radar shows the eyewall is almost complete and the dry air hole is gone and the outflow on the south is improving again. Should start strengthening soon and catch up to her low pressure. Yqt1001 21:42, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Irene is growing really big, possibility of 10 ft storm surge. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 22:30, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * The storm's strongest winds don't extend out too far, but the TS force winds are rivaling those of Floyd and Isabel, so lots of areas could be affected by this massive hurricane. If Irene can make it to C4 tomorrow, things could get ugly for the folks in NC and New England. Ryan1000 22:54, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * I've been looking at the Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC) for a while and it appears that the EWRC has ended and a new eyewall has taken over. Irene also looks better than it ever has and is developing a pinhole eye. Radar imagery from Miami indicates that the eye is closed. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 23:10, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * And now the pressure is now 944.5 per RBT. Get ready to intensify. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 23:22, August 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gah, Irene's acting so weak... Latest advisory takes her still staying with those 115 mph winds as the pressure is now down to 946 hPa. And the direction still takes it NNW at 12kt/14 mph. Ryan1000 00:04, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well she's (or he's, whatever the NHC calls it) very big, so the wind doesn't reflect the pressure values as well. Remember Ike in 2008, with a pressure of 952 mbar but only winds of 110 mph. Anyways, I would expect the winds in Irene stronger. From the looks of satellite imagery it looks like Irene got a strong lefty that she/he can punch onto the coast. The pressure in the RBTs are now 943.7 mbar and STILL dropping... CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 01:13, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sub 940mb pressures found by recon...if they continue to drop at this rate I'm really going to question as to how the hell these winds aren't increasing. Also it's interesting to see at how much that dry air has nearly destroyed the NW banding, but yet pressure continues to drop rather quickly. Guess the dry air isn't being ingested into the core! Yqt1001 02:35, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Recon found 937 mb, still dropping. Really, Irene? Her western convection exploded despite recently encountering dry air. What's more, the storm still has to cross the Gulf Stream. Size expanding similar to Floyd, larger than Ike. 2007Astro'sHurricane 02:43, August 26, 2011 (UTC)

Hey, welcome back, Astro! And yes, for gods sake, if Irene will keep dropping her pressure over such a weak pressure gradient, then why not increase those winds, girl? For the record, If Irene doesn't reach category 4 despite that really low 942 mbar central pressure, it will be the third strongest Atlantic hurricane that didn't exceed C3 intensity, with the others being 1955's Ione(938 mbars), and 2002's Isidore(934 mbars). This storm may hang on to C3 or at least C2 intensity for a while as it passes up the eastern seaboard because Irene's pressure is so low. That's what i'm fearing for the folks in the northeast, particularly the residents on Long Island and perhaps Rhode Island. Also, it should be noted she's moving north now, so the folks in NYC might get off easier from this storm than otherwise anticipated. The Outer Banks of NC and the folks in south-central New England might not get off so easily though... Ryan1000 03:31, August 26, 2011 (UTC)

Boy oh boy, this is really, really scary. The forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF read like something out of The Day After Tomorrow. The GFS continues to bring the right-front quadrant right over Manhattan, driving the worst of the storm surge into New York harbor as well as causing God knows how much flooding inland. The ECMWF brings a Cat. 2 Irene and a potentially devastating storm surge right up Chesapeake Bay, possibly flooding major cities like Baltimore, DC, and Annapolis. And this is in addition to whatever it does to North Carolina. Dear God man. And after looking somewhat disheveled earlier today, Irene finally looks like it's getting its act together. The storm looks much better organized and now we've had another significant pressure drop, which is concerning. I still refuse to rule out intensification to a Cat. 4, but given the size of this thing, it almost doesn't matter at this point. It keeps getting harder and harder to find a way that this could not suck. My dad said he's starting to get the same pit-in-the-stomach feeling he got watching Hurricane Katrina head for Louisiana and I'm starting to get that same feeling. Mayor Bloomberg is seriously considering evacuating "Zone A" of New York City (!!!). That's over 300,000 people. When was the last time any major part of NYC has been evacuated due to a hurricane? This is just surreal. -- SkyFury 03:38, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2am update, no wind increase. Im starting to doubt if Irene will be able to make it to 125mph even. The SW corner of the eyewall still isn't closed and doesn't seem to want to close. If it doesn't do that it might not get much stronger. though winds don't really make a difference at this point, this storm is massive. It has quite the surge and quite the rainfall. It's still looking very bad for the NEUS. In the end, Irene will still be remembered for breaking the streak of weak storms (which might be continued after Irene since Jose wont become more than a weak TS) despite any increase in strengthening. Yqt1001 05:52, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well this is just great, it looks like my last post got deleted somehow. Wonderful. This new page format is really pissing me off. It freezes, the formatting f***s up all the time and now it appears it likes deleting posts. What I said was the 12Z forecasts from the global models earlier today read like something out of The Day After Tomorrow. The GFS took the right-front quadrant right over Manhattan, causing God knows how much flooding inland as well. The ECMWF meanwhile took a Cat. 2 Irene and a potentially devastating storm surge right up Cheasapeake Bay, possibly flooding major cities such as Baltimore, Annapolis or even DC. That is terrifying. On the latest run, the models appear to have shifted east slightly. This may be in response to Irene's little eastward jog earlier today. Like I've said before, storms that parallel the coast are really tricky to forecast because just a slight deviation in the track can make all the difference in the world. While this latest shift may be good news for NYC, I'm not sure how much of a consolation it will be for North Carolina. And keep in mind, the models could shift back to the west just as easily. Boy I tell you those model forecasts earlier today were downright terrifying. Irene appears to be undergoing another ERC. The pinhole eye seen earlier on IR has vanished and latest radar and microwave imagery seem to show concentric eyewalls. This hurricane seems to be a volitile system. I'll be very interested to see what the next advisory says. -- SkyFury 07:46, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I recovered my deleted post and returned it to where it was below Ryan's last post, in case anyone would like to read it. -- SkyFury 08:04, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Everyone needs to get prepared on the East Coast, as this seems like a re-Floyd or re-Gloria. Irene also doesn't want to become a category 4. I have a feeing this will be a re-Ike. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:28, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Everyone needs to get prepared on the East Coast, as this seems like a re-Floyd or re-Gloria. Irene also doesn't want to become a category 4. I have a feeing this will be a re-Ike. Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:28, August 26, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Irene (2nd time)
Okay, this is just weird... Irene powered down. Now it's at 110 mph and 945 mbars. That ruins the possibility of it being a major at NC, unless it recovers it's former self. I knew I could expect the unexpected, but was THIS the unexpected? Geez. I thought the unexpected would be leaving it at 115 mph for this advisory. Oh well... But, as mentioned earlier, this storm is so big that being a strong C2 or a weak C3 doesn't really make a difference, especially when storms are this f**king big(Ike). I can't find any possible scenario to Irene as to how it won't cause at least, say, 7 billion in damage. This could be one of the worst hurricanes to hit New England in a long time. I am pissed off as to why this has to happen this way, but all we can do now is wait. I am shivering as hurricane Irene approaches the eastern seaboard of the U.S. And it's out of fear, not anticipation. Ryan1000 14:16, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory, now it's further down to 105 and 946. I thought it would strengthen, but I guess she's just expanding further for every mph she drpos. Unless she recovers intensity, she will probrably only be a C1 for the folks up in New England. Not to say that won't be bad for them, but it's certainly better than a C2. I still think Irene will become a C3 again later today, but it needs to do it very soon if it ever will again. Ryan1000 14:54, August 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * Her eyewall collapsed, looks like she wont be able to further strengthen. This is still a serious storm for the people in the NEUS. The surge will only get bigger with her weakening. Looks like it will still be 6 years without a MH hit on the US, this is just another Ike really. (which is still bad) Yqt1001 15:48, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * We could still have a U.S. MH later this season, but Yqt, I can't really tell the difference between a 100 mph C2 and a minimal major hurricane. Ike of 2008 was the third costliest tropical cyclone ever, and the 5th deadliest U.S. hit since 1950. If those statistics don't qualify as a "major" hurricane landfall, what the hell does? I don't care if Irene is or isn't a major hurricane when it comes towards New England because due to her massive size, I can't see her weakening below 100 mph until after she makes landfall in southern New England. A hurricane this big won't leave much behind, regardless of how high the winds are, or at least 100 mph; Igor only passed by Bermuda as a very large C1 last year and it's winds and rain weren't that heavy for them even. If Irene can hold on to at least 100 mph as she passes up the east coast, I can see massive damage coming from her. We may go yet another year without "major" hurricanes, but I don't see the difference between a moderate/strong C2 and a weak C3 in terms of impacts. We should still keep our eyes out for her. Ryan1000 16:42, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah, the winds went down some, but as far as I'm concerned, all the eyewall collapse really did was expand the radius of hurricane force winds. Irene's just giving people an excuse to get stupid. And this thing is so massive that it will be resistant to external changes in intensity. Storms this big, while they strengthen more slowly, they also resist the corrosive forces of wind shear, dry air and cooler waters. They create their own weather pattern and move an incredible volume of water. Even Category 2s this size can generate large storm surges up to or exceeding 12 feet. And note that NYC lies at the vertex of a concave coast. That was the same situation in east Texas for Hurricane Ike, a similarly massive Category 2. And we saw what Ike did to that coastline. While I don't expect it to be quite that bad in NC or New England, this is still really scary. And there are going to be really high astronomical tides this weekend associated with the new moon. -- SkyFury 16:49, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * A category two hurricane with the surge potential of a category four at high tide is still incredibly dangerous. Even hurricanes like Isabel, Floyd and yes Gloria hit Cape Hatteras as a category two and did damage. In fact, North Carolina hasn't seen a cat. 3 landfall since Fran of 1996, and although the Cape Fear - Wilmington region has seen three major landfalls, the Cape Hatteras and Outer Banks region hasn't received a single major hurricane landfall since Hurricane San Ciriaco of 1899. 2007Astro'sHurricane 20:51, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Dry air from Georgia is really making an impact on Irene. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 21:11, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't know if it will weaken much further below 100 mph before it makes that landfall in New England because she's so massive. This storm is giving the residents there a false sense of security, by weakening, it is raising their confidence, when it should be decreasing it due to it's massive size. It might be able to keep that 100 mph for quite some time as it heads northward, or at the very most weaken to an 85-90 mph C1 when it makes landfall. However, I cannot see any case in which this storm will not be bad. This could be one of the worst hurricanes to hit New England in a long time. The next two to three days will not be very pleasant for the folks in NC and New England, and it will be one of the most historic storms in their history. Ryan1000 21:48, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not much intensity changes, but the major difference is that Irene is powering to the NNE at 14 mph now. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 23:53, August 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, yes I meant an official category 3 ladfall. Anyways looks like the eyewall is redeveloping, might be too late for it to regain its windspeed though. Yqt1001 00:47, August 27, 2011 (UTC)Added by CobraStrike
 * I recently uploaded a comparison showing radar images of Earl and Irene of which you can view at right. Obviously the pictures don't match because of the different locations but I will be updating the image soon. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 00:57, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * You may be surprised at what I'm gonna say, but I'm really glad that Irene won't hit as a major. Why? Because I don't want strong storms bearing down and obileraiting cities and towns! We don't want a C3 - C5 demolishing villages! I would rather have Irene be a repeat of Humberto than a Gloria or a Ike. I know I can't stop this thing, but what I'm trying to say is that I would have Irene hit NYC as a C1 instead of a C2 or C3. But then, even if she is only a tropical storm at New England landfall, she'll have a big storm surge. I certainly believe those New Englanders are prepared, because this will have A LOAD of effects. The best thing I can do is pray that this hurricane won't be a realistic version of the "hypercane" in The Day After Tomorrow. And also keep in mind that NYC's seawall can only hold a storm surge of a Category 1, so if Irene is a C2, she'll top the seawall. Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:41, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sorry, when I said "seawall", I meant "floodwall". Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:46, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Of course no one wants a major bearing down on anyone's property. But everyone has this little conscience on the back of their heads that keeps popping up saying that they want big storms and record seasons and sometimes even a lot of damage, not that I have one, but still. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 02:55, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

There were tropical storm force winds hitting the coast at dinner time, with the storm still 12 hours away, and 30 foot waves have been reported in South Carolina. And this is only a Cat. 2. That is scary. I shudder to think how different things would be if it was still a Cat. 3. It would be absolutely catastrophic. As it is, the Outer Banks are looking at a "double storm surge" with the initial surge from the ocean followed by a surge from the sound. That is a nasty double whammy. And the hurricane center is now officially forecasting Irene to still be a hurricane when it passes very near NYC. I still can't believe that this storm is effectively shutting down the largest city in the country. The city's entire mass transit system along with all the airports is shutting down. They're evacuating parts of lower Manhattan and Staten Island for Christ's sake. This is surreal. -- SkyFury 04:11, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well, although I personally think the folks up there may be overexaggerating a bit, any time a hurricane heads towards the big apple, precautions must be taken, to some extent. Given that it will only be a C1 when it passes, it probrably won't hit them too hard... An 80 mph hurricane may be feisty for the folks in NYC, but not enough to devastate them. If the 1938 hurricane struck the city today it would be a whole new ball game. Irene may smack the eastern seaboard pretty good, but it won't be strong enough to cause catastrophic damage. I wouldn't be surprised if it does 4-5 billion in damage, but it won't do 12+ billon in damage or so. It just isn't strong enough to do that, even though it'll still be a hurricane, it won't be strong enough to do too much destruction, but certainly enough for retirement at this rate. The back side of Irene may deliver a big surge to NYC, but not enough to devastate them. The latest damage report from the Caribbean states it did 3.1 billion dollars in damage, but I still don't know if that's correct, since it's only preliminary. If it is correct, most of the damage must have come from flooding in Puerto Rico or the DR. It couldn't have all came from the Bahamas; they are so well-prepared for 'canes like Irene. The eastern seaboard may get a shellacking from this storm but it won't be as bad as some of the monstrous hurricanes they have seen there in the past. Ryan1000 05:42, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now cat 1 with 90 mph but with a remarkable pressure of 952 i think that a record correct me if i am wrong please Allanjeffs 07:13, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Allan, it's not unusual to have storms have lower pressures than usual storms of their strength during their weakening stages. The strongest category 1 hurricane(s) on record in the Atlantic(that is, didn't exceed C1 intensity), were hurricanes Abby and Gladys of 1968. They peaked at C1 intensity, but had pressures of 958 mbars. Although Hurricane Wilma of 2005 had the lowest pressure from any category 4 hurricane at one point after it weakened, it was a category 5 hurricane. Hurricane Opal of 1995 is the strongest hurricane in NAtl that didn't reach category 5 strength ever, as Isidore of 2002 being the strongest that never exceeded category 3 and Alex of last year as the strongest that never exceeded category 2. I assume there are quite a few storms in the past that have had lower than normal pressures during their weakening stages(Katrina was a cat 5, but when it hit Louisiana as a C3, it's pressure was 920 mbars), so Irene is no exeption from them with it's C1 pressure. However Allan, it should be noted Irene has the third lowest pressure from any storm that didn't exceed category 3, with the others being Ione of 1955(938) and Isidore(934), with a peak pressure of 942 mbars. Ryan1000 08:02, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Thanks Ryan for taking your time to answer my question I really apprecited Allanjeffs 08:25, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

Landfall in NC
Cape Lookout, to be precise; Category 1 with 85 mph winds and a pressure of 952 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 12:01, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

Man, 952 mbar!!! That's C3 pressure! Luckily, Irene wasn't as bad as I thought would be. And Irene has ended the longest streak between east coast ladfalling hurricanes ever (remember, Hurricane Katrina was the last one, discounting Hurricane Ophelia). Hurricane Andrew (444) 13:26, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...um what???? Darren23Edits 14:28, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * What, do you not like the seperate header, Darren? And Yqt, the threat for New England is not over yet, especially for the folks in New York City, so don't count out on her yet. She could still be quite destructive for them. Ryan1000 15:22, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not the header. It's the factual inaccuracy of the comment before mine. Darren23Edits 19:04, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Latest advisory, winds remain unchanged, but it's picking up forward speed, 15 mph to the NNE. This storm is covering a massive area. Rain is already being felt as far away as the nation's capital. NYC is still forecast to be passed over by Irene as a 75 mph hurricane. While that isn't strong, it still will leave a lot of damage behind. No not as much as a C2 or stronger direct strike but it will be destructive for the folks in NYC. Stay tuned as this hurricane unfolds. Ryan1000 16:56, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * I never discounted her yet Ryan. If anything I think this could be pretty bad. Anyways, land friction is starting to get the storms winds mixed down too the surface. 90mph sustained winds have been recoreded on land and looks like land has caused Irene to get her eyewall complete finally. Yqt1001 17:29, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2PM update; Presure down to 950mb. Yqt1001 18:01, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * What the... no, Irene, no one asked you to pull a Fay! --HurricaneMaker99 18:10, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * She (or he) is not pulling off a Fay. Irene is actually right over the coast, moving from being over water to over the marshes of NC. Fay was more inland, relying on the warm waters on the mainland. And Erin of 2007, well, no one knows about what happened there. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 19:06, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * The new advisory coming out, Irene ready to burst back into the Atlantic. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 21:07, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Man, 950 mbar is really low for a C1. And Darren, what is so inaccurate about my post?Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:18, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * 80mph winds now. Yqt1001 21:25, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Exiting the Currituck Sound and entering the Atlantic. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 21:42, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Strange. JTWC started tracking Irene and now-dead TD 10.Cyclone10 21:53, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Strange. JTWC started tracking Irene and now-dead TD 10.Cyclone10 21:53, August 27, 2011 (UTC)

This thing may not be catastrophic, but it will likely cause widespread destruction. And Darren, it is the longest streak ever known between any two east coast hurricanes, in 6 years and 3 days. Thats certainly exeptional, but this storm is not to be taken lightly as it rockets past the eastern seaboard and heads towards New England this evening and tomorrow morning. Ryan1000 21:58, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * New advisory keeps Irene's strength. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 23:02, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's still a hurricane, but how strong it stays when it heads towards NYC may make a huge difference in terms of damage. Keep your eyes out for this storm. Ryan1000 23:12, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Widespread NC power outages CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 23:44, August 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now skirting past Delmarva. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 01:13, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Quote from NHC Advisory 30B:
 * A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET HAS BEEN OBSERVED AT OREGON

INLET NORTH CAROLINA...AND A STORM SURGE HEIGHT OF ABOUT 4 FEET HAS OCCURRED THUS FAR AT THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE PRELIMINARY WATER LEVEL AT THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BRIDGE TUNNEL HAS RECENTLY PEAKED NEAR THE RECORD LEVEL THAT WAS ESTABLISHED DURING HURRICANE ISABEL IN 2003.

What?!! That is incredible!!! Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:23, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

And Isabel was a category 2 at landfall. Anywho, looking at the Atlantic infrared photos, Irene's outflow extends all the way to Cuba. CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 02:29, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

It's going to pass by NYC quite quickly as a 75 mph C1, so this storm could deliver a lot of impact and high winds, but it won't last very long because it's moving so quickly. Ryan1000 06:55, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

Landfall in NJ
Well, Irene has made its second landfall near Little Egg Inlet, New Jersey. It will likely pass near the Big Apple, then enter New England. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:26, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

First hurricane to make landfall in New Jersey since September 16, 1903. It's only the second one in recorded history. That's a helluva thing. -- SkyFury 23:08, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Irene (2nd time)
Hit NYC dead-on, but not before weakening to a tropical storm with 55kt winds. --HurricaneMaker99 13:10, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Pressure still below 970mb. I'm being affected by her rainbands and I'm in Northern Ontario. That is just insane. Yqt1001 15:03, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's starting to fall apart now, but it still has a chance to cause signifigant inland flash flooding in parts of New England until it moves further north to Atlantic Canada. Ryan1000 19:32, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Luckily, Irene will die by tomorrow morning, but she will long be remembered. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:43, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Irene
She's down and out. Although Irene's gone, she certainly left her mark on the east coast, a 10 billion-dollar one at that. I think we have ourselves a retirement here. Ryan1000 05:52, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

I thought it was a nice gesture by NHC to thank all the hurricane hunters in their final advisory. These guys work their asses off around the clock gathering invaluable data on these storms. Their tireless work saves lives and too often goes unnoticed. I know this disaster is far from over and many parts of the country have a long road of recovery ahead of them, but those guys deserve a big tip of the cap...not to mention a 20 year old scotch on the rocks. -- SkyFury 06:31, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Guessing by the extreme number of flights into Irene, I think it makes it the hurricane with the most hurricane hunter flights (not most researched, Earl is). CobraStrike(t)(b)(c) 00:22, August 30, 2011 (UTC)