Forum:2019 North Indian Ocean cyclone season/September-December

AOI: East-Central Arabian Sea
Up on RSMC's New Delhi outlook with a "moderate" chance for 48-72 hours and a "high" chance after 72 hours. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:03, September 18, 2019 (UTC)

91A/96A.INVEST
Now an invest but with 2 designations. Looking possible to become at least a depression, maybe even "Hikaa". ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:03, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:32, September 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now code orange, "91A" designation dropped. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:10, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

Depression ARB 02
Now a TD on their website. 25 knots (30 mph)/1002 mbar and expected to intensify. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:39, September 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * A note: please change the heading to 02A if and only if the JTWC issues warnings on the system. The designation 02A is NOT the IMD'S - it is the JTWC's. -- Java Hurricane  06:47, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression ARB 02
Up to a DD, TCFA issued, T3.0 on SAB. -- Java Hurricane  17:05, September 22, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Hikaa
Sorry for the confusion earlier - these basins can be a bit complicated to figure out designations. It's now officially a tropical cyclone by JTWC and has just been named by IMD. JTWC intensity: 45 knots/50 mph, IMD intensity: 35 knots/40 mph/997 mbar. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:31, September 23, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Hikaa
It's now a severe cyclonic storm. Up to 65 mph/990 mbar according to IMD. Expected to make landfall in Oman by tomorrow night. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:35, September 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * This thing is taking off fast. I think this could peak as a VSCS. Oman should watch out for Hikaa. - Java Hurricane  15:39, September 23, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Hikaa
And it did become one. 85 mph/980 mbar according to IMD and according to JTWC, it's 100 mph. This is probably going to be its peak intensity as it quickly approaches Omen. Hopefully it won't be too bad there. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:07, September 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 90 mph/976 mbar according to IMD. Should be peaking by now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:39, September 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Closing in on landfall, and down to 85 mph/978 mbar. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:19, September 24, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Hikaa (2nd time/landfall in Oman)
It has made landfall and weakened to a SCS, 70 mph/986 mbar. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:16, September 24, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Hikaa
...and it has dissipated over land, hopefully it wasn't too bad there. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:37, September 25, 2019 (UTC)

Land Depression 01
Looks like this has gone mostly unnoticed. It formed over the Gulf of Kutch on September 29 and became the season's first Land Depression before weakening today to a well-marked low pressure area. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  18:42, October 1, 2019 (UTC)

98B.INVEST
Another invest has appeared on Tropical Tidbits, this one is near the coast of India. IMD's outlook says this has a "low" chance for 96-120 hours. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:07, October 22, 2019 (UTC)
 * Coded yellow on JTWC. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:29, October 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Looks like JTWC has dropped it. ~  Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  19:08, October 24, 2019 (UTC)

99B.INVEST
This has appeared on Tidbits to the east of Sri Lanka, and will affect that country and parts of southern India before emerging into the Arabian Sea. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  01:11, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * The GFS has been making this into a big storm consistently for some time now. -- Java Hurricane  02:43, October 27, 2019 (UTC)
 * Coded yellow on JTWC currently. We'll see what this one manages to do. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  00:24, October 28, 2019 (UTC)
 * Upped to code orange. Now marked as a low pressure area likely to concentrate to a depression on IMD's outlook. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  05:15, October 29, 2019 (UTC)

Depression 05A
This is 05A, but since it will be moving over the outflow and upwelled water from Kyarr, it probably won't get as strong as Kyarr did down the road. Still might become a cat 1-2 (by the JTWC) though, and it would be named "Maha" if so. Ryan1000 09:45, October 30, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Maha
Upgraded. An ESCS and C3-equivalent looks like a distinct possibility in the long run, although the forecasts fall short of those milestones for now. Currently 45 knots (50 mph) according to JTWC. According to IMD, it's currently 65 kmph (40 mph) and 998 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:27, October 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Up to 45 knots (50 mph)/996 mbars according to IMD and 50 knots (60 mph) according to JTWC. Should be upgraded to a SCS overnight. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  04:22, October 31, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Maha
Upped to a SCS, 55 knots (65 mph)/994 mbar according to IMD and 60 knots (70 mph) according to JTWC as it continues to parallel the west coast of India. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  👻  16:06, October 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * It has weakened a bit to 50 knots (60 mph)/994 mbar (IMD) and 45 knots (50 mph) (JTWC). Expected to re-intensify to a VSCS. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  15:33, November 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * It's intensifying again, now 60 knots (70 mph) and 988 mbar according to IMD. JTWC has it at C1-equivalent intensity - 65 knots (75 mph). It should become a VSCS pretty soon. It's also expected to curve sharply towards India starting on Monday. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:25, November 2, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Maha
Upped to a VSCS - 80 mph (70 knots)/984 mbar (IMD) and 90 mph (80 knots) (JTWC). I think it's possible for it to become a brief ESCS, but upwelled water from Kyarr should keep it in check. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  17:28, November 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Actually expected to become an ESCS now after an unexpectedly quick intensification. Now 90 mph (80 knots)/974 mbar (IMD). Maha's intensity according to JTWC is up to a whopping 110 mph (95 knots). ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:43, November 3, 2019 (UTC)

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Maha
Now an ESCS per IMD. -- Java Hurricane  05:13, November 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * 105 kt per JTWC. Likely to weaken henceforth. Expected to make landfall in Gujarat between Porbandar and the UT of Daman and Diu. Warnings up. -- Java Hurricane  15:49, November 4, 2019 (UTC)
 * Also 115 mph (100 knots)/956 mbar according to IMD and it's starting to do the sharp curve towards India. It's likely to be very weak by the time it gets there though. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:16, November 4, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Maha (2nd time)
Downgraded back to a VSCS. Expected to quickly weaken further in the next couple days as it approaches India. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:43, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Maha (2nd time)
Down to a SCS, now 70 mph (60 knots)/990 mbar. The JTWC forecast track is showing it dying out before Indian landfall, which means it might not even make it to landfall as a TC. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:35, November 6, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Maha (2nd time)
Down to CS intensity as moisture starts to stream into India. 50 mph (45 knots) according to JTWC and IMD with a pressure of 996 mbar. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:17, November 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * It's barely hanging on for life, now 40 mph (35 knots)/999 mbar (IMD). Final warning issued by JTWC as it succumbs to its death near western India. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:07, November 7, 2019 (UTC

Remnants of Maha
And it has quickly degenerated overnight. Its remnants continue to stream into India. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:15, November 7, 2019 (UTC)

AOI: Remnants of Matmo
The remnants of former STS Matmo from the WPac are code yellow on JTWC. Could this redevelop? ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  23:43, November 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now being monitored by the IMD. Looks likely that we will see "Bulbul" from this. This NIO season has been incredibly active... ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:19, November 4, 2019 (UTC)

Depression BOB 04
Let us see if it becomes Matmo or Bulbul. --- Java Hurricane  07:18, November 5, 2019 (UTC)
 * Expected to intensify to at least a VSCS. Could be a dangerous storm for eastern India and Bangladesh... And I personally think they will name it "Bulbul", as I think they only keep their JMA name if it survives to the NIO intact as a tropical cyclone (like Pabuk). Matmo dissipated over Indochina before regenerating. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:47, November 5, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression BOB 04
Now a deep depression, 35 mph (30 knots) and 1001 mbar according to IMD. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:36, November 6, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Bulbul (Matmo)
Intensified to a CS, named "Bulbul", although JTWC and some other sites appear to be keeping the old "Matmo" name and the "23W.MATMO" designation. Currently 40 mph (35 knots) and 998 mbar, expected to become yet another VSCS. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  22:32, November 6, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Cyclonic Storm Bulbul (Matmo)
Intensified to a SCS, 60 mph (50 knots)/997 mbar (IMD) and 65 mph (55 knots) (JTWC). Eastern India and Bangladesh are still forecast to be hit by a VSCS over the weekend. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:20, November 7, 2019 (UTC)

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Bulbul (Matmo)
Already a VSCS, 85 mph (75 knots) according to JTWC and 75 mph (65 knots)/986 mbar according to IMD. Looking increasingly dangerous for the areas I mentioned above. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  04:20, November 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Intensified a bit to 80 mph (70 knots)/980 mbar (IMD), the intensity according to JTWC is now 100 mph (85 knots). Should make landfall near the India-Bangladesh border by tomorrow evening. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:26, November 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Near landfall now. Currently 75 mph (65 knots)/988 mbar (IMD) and still 100 mph (85 knots) (JTWC). Hopefully it won't be too bad for the folks there. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:53, November 9, 2019 (UTC)

Cyclonic Storm Bulbul (Matmo) (2nd time)
Now over coastal Bangladesh and surrounding areas, down to 45 mph (40 knots)/1002 mbar (IMD), but still 80 mph (70 knots) according to JTWC. Expected to rapidly weaken further overnight due to land interaction. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  06:47, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

Deep Depression Bulbul (Matmo)
Down to DD status, 35 mph (30 knots)/1002 mbar (IMD), as it continues to bring flooding rains to many parts of Bangladesh and surrounding regions. ~ <font face="Verdana"> Steve   Message Me  My Edits  📧  16:41, November 10, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Bulbul (Matmo)
Downgraded to a low by IMD. No longer on JTWC's map either. Unfortunately, Bulbul/Matmo has caused at least 18 fatalities now. Hopefully not as bad as Fani earlier in the season or Sidr in '07. Jas (Anonymous 2.0) (talk) 07:54, November 11, 2019 (UTC)