Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/South Pacific Basin Archive 1

Invest 93P
Well, well, well. Look what we have HERE TCFA issued, get excited! Ten-o-four and falling with 25 to 30 knots. This doesn't look that organized but TCFA, so I'll go with it. Fred22 (talk) 22:02, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 02F
I wouldn't get too excited as the TCFA has been cancelled. I'm not actually too sure that this is 02F? Anyway, if it is, it has a low chance of becoming a TS by Nadi Kiewii! 17:25, October 22, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of 02F
Gone...

Invest 96P
Mmmm, not so much. Looks pretty...uhh...not good. -Proximity to 93P -Just no Fred22 (talk) 22:02, October 21, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F
Now TD 03F, very low chance of it becoming a TC and current satellite images show that it doesn't have that much convection Kiewii! 17:30, October 22, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of 03F
Gone... Kiewii! 15:58, October 23, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 03F (2nd time)
Back again... Kiewii! 15:24, October 25, 2013 (UTC)

It got renumbered (see below). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:45, October 26, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 04F
With a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa), a new tropical depression has come. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:40, October 26, 2013 (UTC)

Remnants of 04F
It degenerated. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:44, October 27, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 07F
Guys, we need to start paying more attention to the SPAC. We missed Tropical Depression 05F and Tropical Disturbance 06F entirely. But we now have Tropical Disturbance 07F, which has a pressure of 1005 mbar (hPa; 29.68 inHg) per RSMC Nadi, which gives it a low chance of getting named in the next 24 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:38, January 3, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 07F
Tropical Disturbance 07F is intensifying. RSMC Nadi has lowered the system's pressure to 1002 mbar (hPa; 29.59 inHg) and upgraded it to tropical depression status. Meanwhile, the JTWC has labeled the cyclone Invest 90P and gives it a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. RSMC Nadi gives Tropical Depression 07F a low to moderate chance of becoming a named tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:58, January 5, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Ian
For the first time in about 11 months, the SPAC has produced a named storm (Sandra does not count)! Cyclone Ian (as named by RSMC Nadi) has reached Category 1 intensity on the Australian scale with an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /995 mbar (hPa; 29.38 inHg). On the JTWC side, the agency has designated the storm Cyclone 07P, with one-minute sustained winds of 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h). The JTWC forecast shows Ian slicing through Fiji and reaching a peak intensity of 50 knots (60 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with hurricane-force gusts of 65 knots (75 mph). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:42, January 6, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian
Now a very powerful 120 kt storm, predicted to go up to 125 kts before weakening according to JTWC. Steven 09876  ✉  01:18, January 11, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hopefully the Tonga Islands escaped the worst of the storm, it's a category 5 on the Australian Scale now. Should weaken from here on out. Ryan1000 05:01, January 12, 2014 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Ian
The JTWC has already written off this system, and I think it's about dead by now. Hopefully it didn't end up being very bad for some of the islands in the South Pacific, but if it did, then I feel bad for the victims... (Wait...scratch what I said before. According to Ryan's percentages of retirement down in the retirement predictions section, this storm actually ended up being very bad for the Tonga islands. I really feel bad for the victims over there now...)  Steven  09876  ✉  01:57, January 14, 2014 (UTC)


 * It was from a blog post by Dr Masters yesterday, which also said 91W (an invest in the WPac) killed some people in the Philippines. In today's latest post by Dr Masters, DIRECTV has dropped The Weather Channel, but I don't really watch TWC anymore anyways. All they do now is tell you the forecast for the first half of the day and the rest of the day from 2 PM onwards has TV shows that no one cares about that make a lot of profit for TWC. Although I still find that decision a bit surprising. Ryan1000 16:27, January 14, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone June
Currently a cat 1 on the Australian Scale, heading through the islands of and around New Caledonia. Hopefully won't be too bad. Ryan1000 18:27, January 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like this is just gonna be a weak TS, even though it has been affecting New Caledonia. I hope it wasn't too bad for those guys, and June should weaken from here on out according to JTWC. It's also predicted to race towards New Zealand. Well June, thanks for giving me something to look at in the boring tropics. Steven  09876  ✉  19:36, January 18, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of June
And June has passed. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:21, January 24, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09F
RSMC Nadi has reported a new tropical depression. Its pressure is estimated to be at 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg) per the agency. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:26, January 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * The JTWC gives this system a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:57, January 24, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 09F
Well, Tropical Depression 09F passed without getting named. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:18, January 25, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Disturbance 10F
A second tropical disturbance has been reported by RSMC Nadi. It is a little stronger than the system above, with an estimated pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). By the way, does anyone know why the SHem has produced so many strong systems recently (i.e. Amara, Bruce, Bejisa, Colin, and Ian)? Maybe it is that forecasted El Nino. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:26, January 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Possibly, but El Nino events don't always lead to active SHem seasons, as 2008-2009 showed us, which was the first SPac season ever with no hurricane-strength storms. The only particularly notable SHem storm in that season was Fanele in the SWIO, otherwise it was meh. Ryan1000 03:14, January 24, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, this year has woken up rather rapidly. As for this tropical disturbance, the JTWC gives it a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:57, January 24, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yeah, this year woke up pretty quickly. I hope either this or the above disturbance becomes the next named storm (Kofi).  Steven  09876  ✉  01:46, January 25, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Low 10F
Sorry, Steven. The SPAC is falling asleep again. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:18, January 25, 2014 (UTC)


 * Actually, forget what I said above. Tropical Disturbance 10F really just crossed into the Australian region. If it gets a name, it will now be from the Australian region's naming lists. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:53, January 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * Maybe this will become the next named Australian region storm (Dylan). I can't wait to see what he will do! Hopefully future Dylan won't be a big threat to Australia in the future. Steven  09876  ✉  20:29, January 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * The JTWC has issued a TCFA on this system. It currently has a pressure of 997 mbar (hPa; 29.44 inHg) from TCWC Brisbane. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:55, January 28, 2014 (UTC)
 * Here I come :D --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:10, January 28, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Low 07U
Tropical Low 10F has now been renumbered Tropical Low 07U by the Australian BoM, which gives it an intensity of 25 knots (30 mph, 45 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /996 mbar (hPa; 29.41 inHg). The BoM briefly expects it to be a Category 1 tropical cyclone before Australian landfall. Sorry, Dylan, it looks like instead of being a Larry, Yasi, or Monica, you will be a Peta. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:35, January 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Looks like the name will have to be used for an epic fail this year (unless it strengthens rapidly). Sorry Dylan. I'm also crossing my fingers for this to not become named at all, so the name "Dylan" would have one last chance at becoming an epic C5 fishspinner. I hope that happens, so Dylan (HM99) could be very surprised at how much his storm is succeeding. He might even throw huge parties at his house if that happens! But let's not put too much hope into his name just yet. If this low becomes named, he's doomed. But again, I'm crossing my fingers for this to not become named, so his name could have a chance to be used for something epic! I can't wait to see Dylan's reaction to his storm...


 * BTW, it's always been a guilty pleasure of mine to have my name (Steven) appear on a tropical cyclone list. Hopefully that'll happen soon, and I can root for my storm to become an epic C5 fishspinner too! Steven  09876  ✉  02:28, January 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * 'Tis better to have been used and failed than never to have been used at all. And I don't think all of my friends would care enough about tropical cyclones to come to a huge party just to celebrate the success of a storm bearing my name lol. I might go out with a few of my closest friends to celebrate the occasion, but that will probably be it. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:08, January 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Tropical Low 07U has now been designated Cyclone 11P by the JTWC, which gives it a windspeed estimate of 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h). The agency forecasts one-minute peak winds of 50 knots (60 mph, 100 km/h) with gusts of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). On the BoM side, they have the cyclone's intensity at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) with a central pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.24 inHg). They also still expect a brief intensification into a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:40, January 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * As long as I'm not an AUS equivalent of Don, which already seems to be out of the question, I'm ready for this. Let 'er (me?) rip! I've been waiting for this moment for over 8 years! --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:34, January 30, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Cyclone Dylan
I guess it's only fitting that I'm the one to report my own birth! I have a pressure of 987 mbar, but I'm not quite sure what my sustained winds are... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 05:16, January 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, you are booming! The JTWC has you still at the intensity I posted above, but per the BoM, you are at 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds) /980 mbar (hPa; 28.94 inHg). You are now a Category 2 tropical cyclone per their standards, and you could squeeze in STC intensity! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:12, January 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Looks like Dylan made landfall in Australia. I doubt it'll be too severe, but knowing Australia's track record, anything that hits them could be retired...except the fishies. Ryan1000 20:55, January 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * My peak seems to go down as 55 kts (1 and 10-min) and 975 mbar. Not quite hurricane or STC strength, but I made a concerted run at it. As long as I don't cause severe damage (or enough to get myself retired), I'm satisfied ;) --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:31, January 30, 2014 (UTC)

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Dylan
I wasn't active for long, but the fact that I formed at all is better than nothing, and in the year I graduate from high school, no less! This is Cyclone Dylan, signing off :P --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:31, January 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Hopefully you weren't too bad for those dudes in Australia. Your storm really wasn't active very long (being named only yesterday)! But hey, at least you did affect land, so you certainly wasn't a complete fail. However, since you struck Australia, you might have a tiny chance of retirement since anything that hits them has a chance, but I hope that doesn't happen so that for the next time a storm is named after you, it could have a chance at becoming an EPICALLY AWESOME Category 5 fishspinner that will probably make you extremely happy!! I don't think that will happen for a very long time, but hopefully it can happen soon! Also, I hope that someday, we'll be talking about a "Cyclone Steven" exploding into an epically-winning Category 5 fishspinner! That would be awesome for me, since, so far, I have already been waiting a couple years for my name to appear on a tropical cyclone list. I can't wait to see my name on the lists! ;) Steven  09876  ✉  00:58, January 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Dylan, your storm packed a rather small blow on Australia. Hopefully, damage will be minor. And Steven, I think this cyclone has your name. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:06, January 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * You know Andrew, I was talking about a Cyclone Steve n appearing on the lists, although a "Cyclone Steve" returning on the lists would make me excited too. My name could come soon on the lists, you'll never know :D Steven  09876  ✉  23:37, January 31, 2014 (UTC)
 * I doubt Dylan was too bad, but BTW, Steven is retired IIRC. YE Tropical Cyclone  00:46, February 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * You mean the tropical cyclone name "Steven"? Because I'm not retired at all... Steven  09876  ✉  22:20, February 2, 2014 (UTC)