Forum:2019 Pacific typhoon season

93W.INVEST
In the open Pacific, currently code yellow on JTWC. JMA also recognizes this as a low pressure area. Hopefully the next typhoon will come from this one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:01, July 30, 2019 (UTC)
 * Still code yellow. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:07, July 31, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 93W)
Code orange now, and JMA considers this system as a TD already. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:20, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 09W
Now designated as 09W by JTWC. Their forecast shows a typhoon for this storm before striking Japan. Could this finally be our 2nd typhoon of the season?  Sandy 156   :)  21:19, August 1, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Francisco
And it is now a TS. Forecast to become a typhoon before hitting/affecting the Korean Peninsula. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:09, August 2, 2019 (UTC)


 * Rainfall is going to be a big threat with this system, and knowing how impacts from storms like Khanun are in the Korean Peninsula, this is quite worrying. Rainfall of a little over a foot in extreme Southern Japan was predicted last I saw. Still, finally we have what might be our first typhoon in half a year. T  G  2 0 1 9 15:29, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Francisco
And now JTWC only has the peak for Francisco at 50 kt, looks like we have to wait a bit longer for our first typhoon since February. I was hoping that Francisco will be a typhoon, but guess not (unless it defines the forecast).  Sandy 156   :)  19:34, August 3, 2019 (UTC)


 * Anyways, JMA upgraded Francisco to an STS a while ago. This still has a good chance to become a typhoon. JTWC was lowballing it this morning when there were surface estimates of nearly 60 mph. T  G  2 0 1 9 19:52, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * Not losing hope on Francisco becoming a typhoon yet, hopefully it’ll be one soon.  Sandy 156   :)  19:58, August 3, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC and JMA are not expecting a typhoon from Francisco, time’s running out for him.  Sandy 156   :)  20:23, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Francisco
Scratch what I said above, Francisco intensifies into a typhoon according to JMA. Finally, about time.  Sandy 156   :)  14:29, August 5, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Francisco (2nd time)
And Francisco is now back to TS status, as it is now in the Korea-Japan area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:11, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Francisco
Died yesterday. Ryan1000 14:01, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Our first typhoon since February (followed by two more even stronger ones). Hopefully it wasn't too bad for Japan and Korea, although sadly Wiki's season effects reports 1 death. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

94W.INVEST
And another one pops up in Tropical Tidbits; this time it's in the Philippine Sea. Though not yet on JTWC, this may become a TD and be named Hanna by PAGASA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:07, July 31, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code yellow now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:20, August 1, 2019 (UTC)
 * GFS and Euro both take this into South Korea as an intense typhoon, right after Francisco, which is worrying. Thankfully, that is pretty far out, but it seems worrying that both are on board with this. T  G  2 0 1 9 19:24, August 2, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 94W)
TD on JMA, code red on JTWC – TCFA issued too. And this is becoming a worrying system in the long run, if the weather models and forecasts come into fruition. Still not named Hanna by PAGASA, but the southwest monsoon enhanced by this system has already killed a dozen people, mostly due to sea mishaps in Guimaras province in Visayas. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:40, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Hanna (94W)
And it has been finally named by PAGASA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:35, August 3, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lekima (Hanna)
And JMA upgrades 10W to a TS. Still a TD per JTWC and PAGASA though. Forecast to become a relatively strong typhoon in the coming days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:37, August 4, 2019 (UTC)


 * I found it funny that JTWC said that it was 35 kt, but kept it as a TD again for this advisory. Anyways, ASCAT showing winds of 40-45 kt already. T  G  2 0 1 9 17:20, August 4, 2019 (UTC)

Also, since the WPac naming list cycles around roughly once every 6 years and PAGASA's naming list rotates once every 4 years, they often line up once every 12 years, so you can sometimes get a storm, like Lekima, with the same PAGASA name once per 12 years (the 2007 Lekima was also named Hanna by PAGASA). Neat coincidence. But this Lekima will probably turn northward and recurve to hit South/North Korea somewhere, not Vietnam like the 2007 Lekima. Ryan1000 05:15, August 5, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Lekima (Hanna)
Both JMA and PAGASA upgraded Lekima to a STS; only a matter of time before it intensifies into a typhoon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 6, 2019 (UTC)


 * Looks like Lekima will hit Taiwan as a cat 2-3 storm according to the JTWC before recurving northeast towards Japan or South Korea. Rainfall might be a threat if it moves slowly enough over Taiwan. Ryan1000 16:42, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Lekima (Hanna)
Was upgraded to a typhoon by both JMA and JTWC.  Sandy 156   :)  00:59, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Woah, forecast peak was raised to 145 mph by the JTWC, if trends keep up Lekima might even become a cat 5. Fortunately, Lekima is now forecast to miss Taiwan, but unfortunately, Lekima is now expected to come very close to making a direct hit on Shanghai as a 100 mph storm. Hopefully this changes course before then, a strong typhoon in Shanghai could inflict very serious damage. Ryan1000 11:15, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Just weaken for crying out loud. We don't want leukaemia infections. Bartfart12666 (talk) 15:02, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * Forecast peak now raised by JTWC to 150 mph (130 kts), which would make Lekima the 2nd [unofficial] 'super typhoon' of the season, just after Wutip. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:29, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * And Lekima becomes the 2nd super typhoon of the season. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:38, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

Lekima might briefly become a cat 5 before passing through the southern Ryukyu Islands of Japan, but it will weaken before hitting China. Lekima might also hit further south than Shanghai at this point and weaken to a tropical storm before crossing over the city, but as Rumbia showed last year, even a TS in Shanghai can be fairly destructive from floodwaters. Ryan1000 14:01, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now 120 knots (140 mph) according to JTWC and 95 knots (110 mph) according to JMA. This has been a pretty frightening system, although luckily it's forecast to weaken from here on out. The southern Ryukyu Islands probably suffered through quite a bit with this storm. Hopefully it won't be too bad for China. Another piece of terrifying news: It sunk 3 boats in the Guimaras Strait, causing 31 deaths! 🙁 ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

Landfall in Zhejiang
And both JTWC and JMA tell that Lekima has made landfall in Zhejiang as a Category 2-equivalent typhoon. Hopefully the damage won't be that severe; the fatalities in the Philippines are already enough, I must say. Anonymous 2.0 (talk)

Tropical Storm Lekima (Hanna) (2nd time)
Downgraded to a tropical storm (JMA and JTWC) over land. Hopefully any impacts in China are light. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:16, August 10, 2019 (UTC)
 * BBC now reporting that at least 22 people were killed by Lekima in China. This is becoming increasingly disturbing. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:48, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

The 22 deaths in China coupled with the 31 from boats sinking near the Philippines is 53 deaths so far, unfortunately. Damage is still unknown by may be extensive when all is said and done. Ryan1000 04:41, August 11, 2019 (UTC)
 * So sad, this storm is worse than I thought. 😦 Still a TS, but barely, on JMA. JTWC has issued their final warning. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:11, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Death toll upped to 75 and damages are now estimated at over 2 billion...first retirement candidate, anyone? Ryan1000 13:25, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lekima (Hanna)
No longer on JMA's main page but still up as a TD on their weather map. What a devastating storm. This probably will be retired, totals are now >$3.47 billion and 76 deaths. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:28, August 13, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of Lekima (Hanna)
Dead for real now. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  15:16, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Wow, Lekima is now the 10th costliest typhoon on record, inflicting $7.4 billion. This will very likely get the axe, unless it gets snubbed. Bye Lekima, you likely will never be used again.  Sandy 156   :)  23:53, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Lekima is now China's second costliest typhoon, only behind 2013's Fitow. 56 deaths in the said country too, bringing the total fatality count to 89. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 08:31, August 15, 2019 (UTC)
 * Whoa, what a monster. This is certainly going to be axed next spring. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:34, August 15, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Krosa
Forgot to update this page, sorry. Anyway, this was formerly Invest 95W, and intensified to a TS today -- in both JMA and JTWC's scales. Expected to affect the same areas as Francisco. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:10, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

Typhoon Krosa
This large system became a typhoon for a while, 75 mph according to JMA and 80 mph according to JTWC. Pressure is 975 mbar.  Sandy 156   :)  04:08, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * And it's now Category 3 on the SSHWS. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:40, August 8, 2019 (UTC)
 * JTWC now has it at high-end C2 intensity (95 knots/110 mph) and JMA has it at 85 knots (100 mph). Forecast to weaken gradually and then stabilize in intensity, possibly reintensifying on the 13th. Looking like a long-run Japan threat. At least the WPac is finally getting more active and producing typhoons (compared to the pathetic TS after TS streak last month). But it just sucks that these typhoons have to go threaten land. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, August 8, 2019 (UTC)


 * Still a typhoon by JMA, JTWC has downgraded it to a tropical storm. Will continue to be stable in intensity over the next few days with reintensification by the 14th. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  16:17, August 10, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Krosa
JMA has downgraded it to a severe tropical storm, but expected to reintensify until the 14th and then weaken again. Japan is now being threatened at the moment. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:14, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * This is subtropical imo.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:52, August 12, 2019 (UTC)

Doesn't surprise me, it's got a lot of northern convection worn off, partly from upwelling over its own wake since Krosa hasn't been moving very far over the past few days due to weak steering currents. Japan will likely (eventually) be hit sometime later this week, but Krosa will probably be a tropical storm by that time. Ryan1000 13:25, August 12, 2019 (UTC)


 * I agree with Isaac that this storm seems to have subtropical tendencies. It's been looking quite pathetic on satellite. Still forecast to reintensify a bit by tonight/tomorrow and then weaken as it moves through Japan. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:31, August 13, 2019 (UTC)


 * It has passed through Japan and expected to degenerate from here on out. Still holds as a STS on JMA - 50 knots (60 mph), 980 mbar. JTWC has it down to 40 knots (45 mph). ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:30, August 15, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Krosa (2nd time)
Down to TS strength according to JMA and JTWC has issued their final warning. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:01, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Krosa
It has transitioned to an extratropical low, goodbye! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:17, August 16, 2019 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
New invest west of Luzon. Appears only on Tropical Tidbits, but PAGASA has recognized this system as a low pressure area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:09, August 6, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 96W)
Apparently, JMA has upgraded this system to a TD, according to their secondary weather map (the weather chart). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:18, August 6, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange on JTWC. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:51, August 7, 2019 (UTC)
 * No longer on JTWC's site but JMA still holds on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:55, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 96W)
No longer on JMA's website. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  22:44, August 8, 2019 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
New invest according to Tropical Tidbits. This one is at the open Pacific, near the Marianas/Caroline Islands/Palau area. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:26, August 14, 2019 (UTC)
 * Finally on JTWC's outlook with code yellow. Now located closer to the Philippines. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:38, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Code orange now, will this become WPac's next TS? ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:20, August 20, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 97W/Ineng)
Code red, now a JMA TD! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  01:59, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * The GFS ensembles for this initially take it northwest but then northeast towards Japan, but the CMC ensembles on Tidbits take it into Taiwan and China as a 987 mbar category 1 typhoon. If it's named, it'd become Bailu, which just so happens to be the replacement name for perhaps the most infamous typhoon of the 21st century six years ago... Ryan1000 04:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Apparently, PAGASA initiated advisories on this system 12 hours ago. Still a TD as of the latest one. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:41, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bailu (Ineng)
And JMA has upgraded 97W to a TS. JTWC yet to update. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 07:36, August 21, 2019 (UTC)
 * Expected to strike Taiwan and China as a likely typhoon. I hope it won't end up being destructive. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:09, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Bailu (Ineng)
Upgraded hours ago and is currently approaching the southern tip of Taiwan and the northernmost part of the Batanes islands of the Philippines. JMA still expects Bailu to formally become a typhoon, though JTWC forecasts this system to peak at 110 kph (60 kts/70 mph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:43, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now expected to peak at this intensity. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 23:26, August 23, 2019 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Bailu (Ineng) (2nd time)
Now down to TS strength according to the JMA, 45 knots (50 mph)/992 mb. It has also passed Taiwan and expected to make landfall in China pretty soon. JTWC has it at 50 knots (60 mph). Hopefully it's nothing destructive or deadly for the regions. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:14, August 24, 2019 (UTC)
 * Final warning issued by JTWC but remains as a TS. JMA concurs. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:29, August 25, 2019 (UTC)
 * Sadly killed 3 people already. Hopefully it doesn't get any worse. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:52, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
Another invest on Tropical Tidbits, this one's northeast of Guam. Also low chance on JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:27, August 17, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 98W)
JMA is actually calling it a TD on their weather map, although it barely looks like anything on satellite right now. Still code yellow on JTWC. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  19:15, August 18, 2019 (UTC)

Remnants of JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 98W)
Doesn't appear on JMA's weather map anymore but remains code yellow. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:37, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * Now about dead for good. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  06:21, August 20, 2019 (UTC)
 * If you check out Tidbits, this invest is expected to move into the Central Pacific from the west and then turn into the cold, far north Pacific. It probably won't become much of anything. 97W might though. Ryan1000 04:06, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression
Up on JMA's weather map near Taiwan, with no mention anywhere else. Not even invested... weird. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎂   It's my  B-DAY!  🎉  18:45, August 19, 2019 (UTC)
 * JMA has dropped it. Strange how nothing else mentioned this. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:10, August 21, 2019 (UTC)

99W.INVEST
Up on Tropical Tidbits, located near Namonuito Atoll out in the open Pacific. ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧
 * Now visible in JTWC's website. Code yellow as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:44, August 23, 2019 (UTC)
 * Raised to medium chance/code orange. Expected to pass through Luzon early next week. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:09, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

JMA Tropical Depression (Invest 99W)
Now up as a TD on JMA, and JTWC has issued a TCFA as it becomes code red. Here comes Podul! ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  18:46, August 25, 2019 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
With ten storms so far, and since Lekima caused considerable damage and loss of life in China, what are your thoughts on retirements thus far? Mine are here:

JMA: PAGASA: There's mine...for now. Ryan1000 13:25, August 12, 2019 (UTC)
 * Pabuk - 20% - Made for the second consecutive typhoon season with a year-crossing storm, with over 150 million USD damage in Thailand, but the death toll was low, and it's not too likely to be retired.
 * Wutip - 1% - Strongest (and only category 5) February typhoon on record, and the second-earliest WPac cat 5 after Ophelia in 1958, but fortunately it remained mostly at sea, with only minor damage to Guam.
 * Sepat - 0% - The minor rain in Japan doesn't justify any chance.
 * Mun - 1% - Small damage and a few deaths won't cut it, and southern China has seen worse.
 * Danas - 2% - Rather minor storm.
 * Nari - 0% - See Sepat.
 * Wipha - 2% - Wasn't much different than Mun.
 * Francisco - 5% - Caused some damage and a death in Japan and South Korea, but will probably stay.
 * Lekima - 90% - Now this...THIS storm has a fairly good chance at going. Killed at least 89 people with over 7 billion in damage, mostly from flooding and storm surge. Possibly the second-costliest typhoon ever in China, behind only 2013's Fitow. Shanghai may have dodged the worst part of the storm, but they still got hit quite hard.
 * Krosa - 2% - Killed 2 people with some minor damage, but won't be retired.
 * All names - 0% - No names have met their mandatory retirement criteria (1 billion PHP and/or 300 deaths) so far, so nothing is getting retired here yet.

TG's Retirements

 * Pabuk: 5% - To be honest, Pabuk was a fairly notable system (mostly for the NIO), but otherwise, it is definitely not retirement worthy.
 * Wutip: 0% - Strongest NHem February storm on record, but luckily stayed out to sea. Wasn't the prettiest C5, but it was nevertheless a very interesting storm.
 * Sepat: 0% - Lol, no.
 * Mun: 0% - For this storm to have likely not reached winds of even 30 mph on reports, nor a really visible circulation, I don't see any reason to retire this thing lol.
 * Danas: 1% - Very minor storm. Lucky to not have caused much more for similar storms that have struck the Korean Peninsula at that strength.
 * Nari: 0% - Caused literally no damage, despite striking land. Thankfully, no deaths occurred in Japan.
 * Wipha: 5% - In my honest opinion, I believe that Wutip was likely stronger than it actually was according to JTWC, but its damage or deaths is nowhere near enough for retirement. Unfortunately, 10 fatalities occurred in this system.
 * Francisco: 0% - Since Japan doesn't retire names, I've went ahead and put this at 0%, although it would not have been much higher than 1%. Francisco was a fun storm to track, and thankfully, did not follow its original forecast of being a C2 typhoon upon Korean landfall. Only 1 fatality occurred in Francisco.
 * Lekima: 99% - Lekima was one of the most destructive typhoons of the decade, and one of the costliest for China on record. Lekima was also fairly deadly, and I believe that China will definitely request this storm. $7.3 billion is beyond enough for retirement in this basin. Although China is pretty weird about its retirements, it would really surprise me if they did not retire this.
 * Krosa: 1% - It was nice to have another major. No major damage from this storm, thankfully.
 * Bailu: 0% - Ongoing.

PAGASA: All names - 0%. T G  2 0 1 9 16:05, August 24, 2019 (UTC)

Steve's retirements & other things
Explanations of tabs:
 * Main: Lists retirement chances and grades for all storms.
 * In summary...: Categorizes all named storms based on how likely they are to be retired.
 * Replacement Names: Every storm listed as "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired" or higher on the previous tab each gets a top 10 list of my favorite replacement names that may be chosen. This tab will not be done for the WPac because it's simply too complicated to figure out replacements for this basin.
 * How Far Will This Season Go?: An outlook for the future of the season. Lists what names may be used in the future, and gives percentages of how likely those names will be used this year. Also gives a background for what to expect this year.

Main= Below the storms, you will find a list of all colors used and explanations for things that I did.

All intensities are based off of JTWC's 1-min winds. JMA tropical depressions or intensities (such as the severe tropical storm category) are not included, exceptions are made if the JMA named a storm that the JTWC never tracked.

International Names:
 * <font color="#00faf4">Pabuk : <font color="#00A">6%, <font color="#F90">D - Formed on the last day of 2018 and crossed over, becoming the earliest named storm ever. This achievement ups its grade a bit. Very small chance of retirement just because it caused $156 million and 8 deaths in Thailand, but Indochina is pretty snubbish when it comes to retirements.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">01W : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#F00">F - Lasted a long time for a TD/disturbance, so I'll give it a bit of credit for that.
 * <font color="#F55">Wutip : <font color="#95A">0.1%, <font color="#A0F">S - What an amazing storm. Became the first C5 super typhoon in the month of February! And as a bonus, barely anyone was affected! Only $3.3 million in damage gives it a negligible retirement chance.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">03W : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - Forgettable, at least it didn't steal a name. Only caused minor damages.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Sepat : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - Only considered subtropical by JTWC, it was quite the fail. Just a rainmaker for Japan - no damage or deaths.
 * <font color="#00faf4">04W : <font color="#AAA">N/A, <font color="#A00">F- - JMA kept it a TD, thank god.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Mun : <font color="#95A">0.2%, <font color="#A00">F- - An epic fail, but doesn't get a Z because it caused impacts in China/Vietnam, albeit very minor.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Danas : <font color="#30A">1%, <font color="#F30">E - Another minor storm. Some damage and deaths, but it's not going.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Nari : <font color="#AAA">~0%, <font color="#A00">F- - This failure just brought rain to Japan with no further impacts.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Wipha : <font color="#30A">2%, <font color="#F30">E - Struck in a similar region to Mun, but was worse. Considering Vietnam received the brunt of impacts, it shouldn't go.
 * <font color="#FF5">Francisco : <font color="#60A">0.5%, <font color="#AF0">C - Shouldn't have been too bad for Japan or Korea. Gets some grading points for becoming the first typhoon since Wipha and ending an excruciating wait.
 * <font color="#F85"> LEKIMA : <font color="#300">99%, <font color="#0AF">A- - 2nd-costliest in Chinese history? This is almost definitely going. The only problem is that they are a bit weird with retirements, so there's still like a 1% chance they'll snub it, but they better not. Lekima's grade is nerfed a bit due to the devastation.
 * <font color="#FB5">Krosa : <font color="#60A">0.8%, <font color="#0F5">B - We got another major, nice. But it was sorta disappointing that it never re-intensified on its way to Japan like forecasts predicted. Impacts are not nearly enough for retirement.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Bailu : <font color="#30A">1% (preliminary), <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. The retirement percentage and grading will be released or become official when this storm dissipates. However, already caused 3 deaths and $12 million in damages, so this has a non-zero retirement chance. Let's hope it doesn't get worse.

PAGASA:
 * No storms have yet to meet their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP and/or 300 deaths).

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#FF5">C1 , <font color="#FD5">C2 , <font color="#FB5">C3 , <font color="#F85">C4 , <font color="#F55">C5 (160-180 mph) , <font color="#905">185+ mph

Based on SSHWS color coding as used on Wikipedia and other sites, and colors the names of the cyclones above. The colors were slightly adjusted so that "C1" would be easier to see on a white background. Special dark red/purplish color gives recognition for the most powerful of the powerful storms. TDs are still included for grading only, even though they can’t be retired (except in areas like PAGASA). TC names have special formatting depending on retirement chance. For 0 to 24%, they are bolded just like how the color codings appear. For 25% to 49%, they are also italicized. For 50% to 74%, they are bolded, italicized, and underlined. Lastly, for 75% to 100%, the names are BOLDED, ITALICIZED, UNDERLINED, AND IN ALL CAPS.

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#AAA">~0%, 0%, or N/A ; <font color="#95A">0.001-0.4%, <font color="#60A">0.5-0.9% , <font color="#30A">1-4% , <font color="#00A">5%-9% , <font color="#05A">10-14% , <font color="#0AA">15-19% , <font color="#0A5">20-24% , <font color="#0A0">25-29% , <font color="#3B0">30-34% , <font color="#6C0">35-39% , <font color="#9D0">40-44% , <font color="#CE0">45-49% , <font color="#FF0">50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D00">75-79% , <font color="#B00">80-84% , <font color="#900">85-89% , <font color="#700">90-94% , <font color="#500">95-98% , <font color="#300">99-99.999% ; <font color="#100">~100%, 100%, or TBA

Percentages come in color-coded ranges, meaning any percentage within a range is the same color. "N/A" is gray like "0%," and is used for tropical depressions or any other storm that cannot be retired. "N/A" is only used for retirements because every storm is assigned a grade. "TBA" is black like "100%," and is used for both retirement percentages and grading when a system is currently active. If the retirement percentage becomes clear when a system is currently active, a "preliminary percentage" will be assigned until after the storm dissipates and impacts become even more clear. "~0%" and "~100%" with the tilde (meaning asymptotically certain/approximately equal) is used for any basin that does not have retirement requirements, meaning the vast majority of basins. The versions without the tilde are only used in basins with agencies that have retirement requirements where it’s absolutely certain to be retired or not retired, like PAGASA.

Grading colors: <font color="#A0F">S, <font color="#50F">A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#05F">A , <font color="#0AF">A- , <font color="#0FA">B+ , <font color="#0F5">B , <font color="#0F0">B- , <font color="#5F0">C+ , <font color="#AF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F90">D , <font color="#F60">D- , <font color="#F30">E , <font color="#F00">F , <font color="#A00">F- , <font color="#500">Z , <font color="#000">TBA

Ranks a storm’s performance. Mostly not correlated with retirement percentages, except if a storm performed well but has a high retirement chance. If that is true, a negative correlation comes into play for moral reasons (if a storm receives a 100% retirement chance, don’t really expect anything above "A"). It’s based on the educational grading system, with a few key differences. "S-rank," used in some games, is used to denote a rank above A, the best of the best, and is reserved for the following: record-breakers in unusuality (a Atlantic hurricane in March, for example), longevity (On the scale of John ‘94, San Ciriaco 1899, Nadine ‘12, Ginger, Inga), intensity (185+ mph, but often only fishspinners), and persistence/ stubbornness (like Genevieve ‘14 or Otis ‘17). For moral reasons, the devastating storms (like Katrina, Irma, or Haiyan) never get this rank - usually only fishspinners do. "A++" occurs if a storm doesn’t quite satisfy "S"-criteria, but still performed really well regardless. A+ to D- and F is copied from the educational grading system - I’m sure you can understand what those mean. "E" is sort of an in-between grade (that fills in the gap between letters D and F) for storms that didn’t quite fail (possibly because they peaked above 50 mph or did other things), but were still pathetic. "F-" is even worse than F, denoting some of the worst failures (but not bad enough for "Z"). Lastly, notice that the grading system generally goes down the alphabet (A to F), lower letters for bigger failures. If this would continue, we would have "G", "H", and all the way down to "Y" (S is the exception in my scale). All of these letters would be redundant in a simple grading scale. To denote the worst failures of them all, I would like to skip all the way down to the final letter, "Z". Even worse than "F-", this is used to denote the shortest-lived TDs, name-stealers that peak at 40 mph for only 6-12 hours and last only a day in full, and just the most pathetic failures of all time.



In summary...= RETIRED: LEKIMA

Likely Retired: 

Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired: 

Likely Staying: 

Staying: Pabuk, Wutip, Sepat, Mun, Danas, Nari, Wipha, Francisco, Krosa, all PAGASA names so far

Projected retirements for currently active storms:
 * Bailu - Not yet known for sure, but likely will be Staying

Retirement chance ranges for:
 * "Retired": 80-100%
 * "Likely Retired": 60-79%
 * "Might Either Stay, Or Be Retired": 40-59%
 * "Likely Staying": 20-39%
 * "Staying": 0-19%

How Far Can This Season Go?=
 * For international names, I expect that this season will end at or around Nakri.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Bualoi, Matmo, or Halong, or go further to Fengshen, Kalmaegi, or Fung-wong.
 * Kammuri or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Neoguri or before is also unlikely.
 * For the PAGASA, I expect that this season will end at or around Tisoy.
 * It's also possible that this season will only make it up to Quiel, Ramon, or Sarah, or go further to Ursula, Viring, or Weng.
 * Yoyoy or beyond is looking unlikely, while the season ending at Perla or before is also unlikely.
 * It's likely we will see around 3 systems this year that will be devastating enough to earn retirement (international) and 1-2 retirees for PAGASA. The first candidate is Lekima. The others are expected to occur in September, October, or November, with a very small chance for December or by the end of August. PAGASA retirees are also expected in those months.

International Names:
 * Chances that Podul will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - This should come out of 99W.
 * Chances that Lingling will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Expected to form by the end of the month or the start of September.
 * Chances that Kajiki will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - May arrive in early September.
 * Chances that Faxai will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Probably an early-mid September storm.
 * Chances that Peipah will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Will most likely be a mid-September storm.
 * Chances that Tapah will be used: <font color="#300">99.999% - I expect to see this in mid-late September.
 * Chances that Mitag will be used: <font color="#300">99% - Expected by the end of September.
 * Chances that Hagibis will be used: <font color="#500">96% - Expected by early October.
 * Chances that Neoguri will be used: <font color="#700">91% - Highly likely to form, probably by mid-October.
 * Chances that Bualoi will be used: <font color="#B00">83% - Expected to occur in late October.
 * Chances that Matmo will be used: <font color="#F00">74% - Probably will form by the end of October or in November.
 * Chances that Halong will be used: <font color="#F30">65% - Still in favor of getting this far. Will probably be in November.
 * Chances that Nakri will be used: <font color="#F90">56% - Chances still slightly in favor. Expected to form in November or December. May be the season's last storm.
 * Chances that Fengshen will be used: <font color="#CE0">48% - Starts dropping below a coin toss. If it does form, it will most likely be by the end of November or December. Like Nakri, most likely to be the last storm.
 * Chances that Kalmaegi will be used: <font color="#6C0">39% - The chances are getting lower. If Kalmaegi does come this year, it should be in December.
 * Chances that Fung-wong will be used: <font color="#3B0">30% - Only a slight chance of getting this far in 2019.
 * Chances that Kammuri will be used: <font color="#0A5">22% - I doubt we will get this far.
 * Chances that Phanfone will be used: <font color="#0AA">15% - I really doubt it. The season will really have to explode.
 * Chances that Vongfong will be used: <font color="#00A">8% - The chances have dwindled into the single digits. This should be a 2020 storm.
 * Chances that Nuri will be used: <font color="#30A">3% - Nope. I expect to see this name in 2020.
 * Chances that Sinlaku will be used: <font color="#60A">0.8% - Chances are nearing zero. Hyperactive miracle activity will have to somehow take place the rest of the season, making this year much above average. Should not happen.
 * Chances that Hagupit will be used: <font color="#95A">0.01% - I would be left with absolutely no words if the season somehow got to this point...
 * Chances that Jangmi or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - A 2020 storm for sure.

PAGASA:
 * Chances that Jenny will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - It's guaranteed this year, most likely from 99W.
 * Chances that Kabayan will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Also guaranteed, probably by the start of September.
 * Chances that Liwayway will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should be here in September.
 * Chances that Marilyn will be used: <font color="#100">~100% - Should also form by the end of September.
 * Chances that Nimfa will be used: <font color="#300">99.9% - No reason why this won't be used. Might be here by early October.
 * Chances that Onyok will be used: <font color="#500">98% - I would faint if this isn't used. Mid-October most likely.
 * Chances that Perla will be used: <font color="#700">91% - Expected by late-October most likely.
 * Chances that Quiel will be used: <font color="#D00">78% - Highly likely to come, probably by the end of October or November.
 * Chances that Ramon will be used: <font color="#F30">69% - Chances still in favor, might be seen in November.
 * Chances that Sarah will be used: <font color="#F60">60% - A November-December storm assuming it comes.
 * Chances that Tisoy will be used: <font color="#FC0">52% - Chances are just slightly above a coin toss, may be the last of the season.
 * Chances that Ursula will be used: <font color="#9D0">43% - Still possible to get up to here, though the chances are declining.
 * Chances that Viring will be used: <font color="#6C0">35% - Only a slight chance at this point. Chances are in favor of not getting this far down.
 * Chances that Weng will be used: <font color="#0A0">26% - Getting more doubtful.
 * Chances that Yoyoy will be used: <font color="#0AA">18% - Weird name lol. Most likely not getting this far down.
 * Chances that Zigzag will be used: <font color="#05A">10% - Another funny name! But it is extremely doubtful the season will reach this name.
 * Chances that Abe will be used: <font color="#30A">4% - Not getting into the auxiliary list unless a miracle explosion somehow occurs. Even if a realistic explosion occurs, activity will probably fall short.
 * Chances that Berto will be used: <font color="#30A">1% - The PAGASA region will need to consume several shots of energy drinks and caffeine to get this far, somehow. I don't expect to come close.
 * Chances that Charo will be used: <font color="#95A">0.3% - Ok, now this is just getting out of hand.
 * Chances that Dado will be used: <font color="#95A">0.001% - The formation of this would leave me without words....
 * Chances that Estoy or beyond will be used: <font color="#AAA">~0% - Not happening this year.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:03, August 26, 2019 (UTC) (Last updated: 04:03, August 26, 2019 (UTC))