Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season

AOI: SW of Mexico III
Another AOI appears. 0/20. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:21, July 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now he 10/30. Check dem runs bruh bc de ting poppin' §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 12:02, July 28, 2018 (UTC)

So far so good... §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 13:27, July 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta: "haha look at me i believe i can fly i believe i can touch the sky no motherf-cker can match me ahahahaha"
 * Bud: "haha i'm gonna beat you! all years before 2006 sucked! now i'm finally a cat 4! i made landfall unlike that dutch twit aletta who is a coward!"
 * Carlotta: "mummy i wanna go to mexico like patwicia"
 * Daniel: "zzzzzz... damn... zzzzzzz"
 * Emilia: "all 1994 cat 5s for sh-t tropical storms in 2018"
 * Fabio: "i am trying to eat more to be a category 5 but i'm not gaining any weight"
 * Gilma: "SMOKE SHEAR EVERYDAY!"
 * Hector (my prediction):  "halp pws "
 * Ileana (my prediction): "hahaha mexico get drenched while i flirt with your coastline"
 * John/Kristy/Lane (my prediction): "WHERE IS YOUR GOD NOW? WHAT ARE WE DOING? WHY ARE WE THREE GETTING FATTER? WHY ARE WE SEEING HULA DANCERS?"-lane overdoses on roids at the same time john takes xans and kristy takes ket-
 * Miriam (my prediction): "zzz"
 * well now de ting at 20/40 get in §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 01:12, July 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * DE TING GO BOOM AT 30/50 MAN GUN FORM BEFORE JULY ENDS §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 13:15, July 29, 2018 (UTC)
 * any1 ceen de gfs runs? whoever is runnin it is on crak cocaine bcuz dei dink hector wll reach c8gorii 5... fabio any1? POWAH TO HEKTUR!!!!!!! :DDDD §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 13:25, July 29, 2018 (UTC)

Back to 20/40 again. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:22, July 30, 2018 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Has been invested a few days ago (according to Tropical Tidbits), and has been designated as 93E. 50/60. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 00:04, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * JTWC has issued a TCFA (although unofficial). 60/70. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:56, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * If this becomes Hector it's going to be weak, unfortunately. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:55, July 31, 2018 (UTC) (see my next comment below)


 * HOW??? DIDN'T THEY BLOW HIM UP INTO A CAT 5?!?! §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 14:55, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Maybe the wind shear is at it again. Or the cold waters of the EPac intervened. But whatever. I just hope we'll get to at least Lane or Miriam before August ends. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:45, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * lane better be a roidy storm bruh §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 17:47, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * and now de ting at 80/80 now get dem jerky chicken n chow mein down ur belly gyal (i meant boi) and you will grow up poppin. yass queen. §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 17:57, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Ten-E
35 mph/1007 mb, becomes a hurricane at the very end of the current cone. Future Hector, you had better not let me down. Send Help Please (talk) 20:49, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Well, at least I'm glad that a storm is finally predicted to become a hurricane, but whether it does or doesn't, all of that will happen in August unfortunately. This July is probably one of the least active July in the EPAC since, well I'm not sure.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions   21:01, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * July 2010 was even less active. Anyways, I'm excited to see that this could become a hurricane in 5 days. Hopefully it does become a hurricane because it would be frustrating to see it underperform, especially due to the inactive July. Don't let me down upcoming-Hector! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:25, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Hector
Now a TS with 40/1006. Still expected to be a hurricane in the long run. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions   03:09, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * heh what if hector becomes the boy version of the bvsed darby LOL! §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 11:34, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

Archived the rest of July in here and the other basins. Hopefully Hector remains away from Hawaii down the road; if so, it wouldn't be bad to see him become a major hurricane, but the current forecast peak is only strong cat 1. But as many storms in the past, most recently Aletta earlier this year, have shown, it could always go above that. Ryan1000 14:14, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * This will likely be a long tracked formidable hurricane. A ridge should keep this away from Hawaii, even though fantasy runs from the ECMWF and GFS bring this quite close. YE Pacific Hurricane  17:19, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Considering that long-run NHC forecasts are often conservative, I won't be surprised if Hector can reach major hurricane intensity or even C4 intensity. In fact, they are now forecasting a C2 by 5 days. Hopefully it stays away from Hawaii in the very long run. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  20:27, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * 70 mph/995 mb as of latest advisory, hurricane intensity is right around the corner. Also, looking at some of the model runs, this has the potential to be a tri-basin storm.  Send Help Please (talk) 09:39, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

I doubt Hector will be much of a threat to Hawaii due to his small size, but the small size of this storm could lead to it undergoing RI and becoming a cat 4, like some other small and unexpected cat 4's we've had in recent years, like Fernanda and Kenny last year and Georgette in 2016. But the subtropical ridge should keep this south of Hawaii without causing much impact. Ryan1000 12:45, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

Hurricane Hector
Now A Hurricane. 85mph and 987mb Nickcoro (talk) 14:40, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * "Well, so much for the shear" -- Forecaster Blake, latest discussion. :) Now expected to become a 120 mph cat 3, but that may be conservative. I think RI is on the way for Hector. Ryan1000 14:58, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * I take back my earlier statement. I guess I was unlucky and viewed the models at a time when they were coincidentally showing a weak storm. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:09, August 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Also given Hector has intensified 35 knots in the past 24 hours (winds were at 45mph / 75km/h this time yesterday) he's already RIing. Hector's intensity might level off in a while however due to lower oceanic heat content as mentioned in the NHC forecast discussion but after Hector enters the CPac he'll likely explode again. Hopefully Hector doesn't move too far north at that time so he'll miss Hawaii. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:21, August 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nearly a major!!! 95 kts/973 mbar per the latest advisory, now forecast to peak as a low-end Category 4 in 72 hours. This could be the storm that makes up for what Fabio should have been... --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 21:00, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

The late end of the current NHC forecast cone shows Hector taking a bit of a northwestward turn, which could bring him close to Hawaii down the road...hopefully the subtropical ridge of high pressure that usually protects Hawaii from hurricanes keeps Hector south of the islands. Ryan1000 05:11, August 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 105 mph in the meantime. Still expected to hit major hurricane status in a few hours. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:32, August 3, 2018 (UTC)

I'm starting to doubt Hector, he's down to 90 mph and 983 mbars and his organization has been slipping lately, with much of the convection southeast of the circulation. Ryan1000 17:23, August 3, 2018 (UTC)

Idk Ryan. The latest ATCF update has major Hurricane Hector. I think it could still pull off C4. We'll see what happens. - VileMaster (talk) 01:15, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Hector
120 mph/967 mb as of latest advisory. I was beginning to wonder if Hector would be Hilary/Fabio 2.0, but he has put those doubts to rest. However, he is only allowed to continue to intensify if he stays away from Hawaii. Send Help Please (talk) 03:05, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hector is probably about to undergo an ERC, but he's still forecast to reach C4 status before entering the CPac. The current NHC forecast track takes Hector south of Hawaii but it's still too far out to be certain on any impact. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:33, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Welp, looks like I spoke too soon. For the first time since Bud, we have a major here in the EPac. But Hawaii's ridge is still expected to keep Hector south of the islands down the road, hopefully that remains the case. Ryan1000 04:36, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Surprised to see this after the brief weakening earlier. Nice job, Hector! A C4 is looking likely now. Hopefully it stays south of Hawaii like the forecast shows. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:42, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Hector just can’t make up his mind, can he? From a Cat 2, borderline Cat 3, to a Cat 1, back up to a Cat 2 again, and now a major. Leeboy100 Hello!! 07:02, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * In just 24 hours, Hector gave us more EPac drama than the whole of July. 120 mph now, but pressure is not what one would expect for a C3: 962 mb. Anyway, the (in)famously conservative NHC forecast puts Hector to reach and peak as a high-end C3 at 125 mph, but knowing that this is the EPac, I will not be surprised if Hector reaches 140 or even 145 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:06, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Hector has now been confirmed to be a Category 4 hurricane by the NHC. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 02:46, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Hector has gone back down to C3, but may become annular in a few days which should help him survive longer. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:08, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

We may very well have a tri-basin storm here, if the current GFS and Euro model runs are to be believed. Send Help Please (talk) 09:17, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hector back up to a Category 4 storm. It is now 115 kts/952 mbar, which is just 1 millibar stronger than its previous peak. T  G  2 0 1 8 20:52, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Hector is now a 140 mph / 947 mbar hurricane. This storm keeps strengthening, then weakening, then strengthening again. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:39, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Next advisory on Hector will be from the CPHC. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:38, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I think it may be safe to say at this point that Hector will remain south of Hawaii down the road, and because he's not too big his impacts down the road will likely be limited to high surf. Ryan1000 04:48, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now crossing into the CPac, so the NHC has issued their final advisory on this system. I'm glad to see it become an intense C4, as long as it spares Hawaii from impacts! I agree that the only impacts they should get is high surf, but I don't think I would rule out Hawaii getting a few showers from Hector. I bet it's going to eventually cross the IDL and become a tri-basin storm. First since Genevieve, I think? ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:09, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Yeah, but unlike Genny I don't think Hector will be that strong when, or if, he reaches the WPac, and if he does reach the basin, he's probably going to turn northward eventually and dissipate out at sea. There's never been an EPac proper-forming storm to reach the WPac basin and hit one of the mainland countries in the WPac, although two CPac named storms (Oliwa '97 and Halola '15) have done so in Japan. Ryan1000 12:56, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico
Another AOI at the south of Mexico appears. 0/30 as of now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:22, July 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * DE TING BE BLOWIN UP MAN §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 11:24, July 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * This one probably won't do too much. Models are more interested in blowing up a possible system after this into a powerful hurricane. ~ KN2731 {talk} 13:56, July 31, 2018 (UTC)


 * in what way won't ileana do anything and john be poppin dem hurricane pills brah? §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 14:56, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * SO WAIT JOHN BE POPPIN PILLS TO BECOME A CAT 5? AND THE OTHER STORM IN THE MODEL RUN IS KRISTY?? If shear is gonna relax in august according to models then 420% likely that lane be on roids §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 15:00, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 0/40, and I feel this could be Ileana, but not sure how strong it'll get. However, "John" sounds like a strong name, and it would be exciting to see the system after this become "John" and intensify to as much as a C5 (as long as it remains out to sea). ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  02:29, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * i predict: hector will peak at a c3, ileana a c3 and john a c1. kristy and lane are two c4s. -- §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 11:35, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

Still not on the 2-day TWO, but it is now at 0/50. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:11, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * ileana be bvsed LOL! -- §ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 13:33, August 1, 2018 (UTC)


 * This will probably become Ileana next week. Rooting for it to become a hurricane or stronger unless it affects Mexico in the long run. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧

Nvm my below comment this'll become something soon. Currently at 10/80. Ryan1000 15:04, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Oh lol, I mixed this up too. The AOI that I said wouldn't do anything much is the one below at 10/30, while the "possible system after this" is actually this AOI at 10/80. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:13, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

Currently 20/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:14, August 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * 30/90 now. Ileana is coming... Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:34, August 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * 50/90, and the race to become Ileana (with the below AOI) is on. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:29, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * 60/90 now. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:43, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

95E.INVEST
Finally made into an invest. This is actually the 70/90 one. The race for Ileana is on. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:08, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * 80/90 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:02, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Now at 90/100, this will form very soon. ChowKam2002 (talk) 18:24, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twelve-E
Now a tropical depression. 30 kts/1006 mb. T  G  2 0 1 8 20:44, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm John
Forecast peak at 95 knots, but could be higher given rapid intensification is likely. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:39, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Ok, the EPac is on FIRE. Three active systems, and a fourth one looking likely from the 60/80 invest?! Newly-named John is going to be the stronger one out of the twins of very close proximity. I'm betting at least a C3, maybe a C4, is in store for John. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:11, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * John's intensity history has been somewhat off and on, he was a cat 2 in 1978, a major in 1982, 1994 and 2006, but he failed miserably in 2012 and wasn't too strong in 2000 or 1988. If John can remain offshore without causing much impact to Mexico, I personally hope he becomes a cat 5 so we can have a Pacific hurricane name reach category 5 intensity twice, but that intensity may be pushing it a bit far with this one. Nonetheless, RI index is high, and I would be surprised if this incarnation of John doesn't become at least a cat 3. Ryan1000 05:16, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * This storm is now at 60 mph and 999 mbars, and is forecast by the NHC to become a hurricane in the next six to twelve hours. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:52, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Rapid intensification index is extremely high with this storm (60 to 90% according to the NHC's latest forecast discussion) and John already looks like a hurricane on satellite imagery. He's expected to become at least a 125 mph cat 3 at this point, but given John's very favorable environment and small circulation (TS winds go only 70 miles from the center), there is a very good chance he could get stronger than the 125 mph that NHC currently forecasts; the SHIPS and LGEM models show an even higher intensity. I'd say John is already a lock for a cat 4 at this point, and maybe there's an outside chance John could be the first Pacific hurricane name to reach category 5 intensity twice. Ryan1000 12:51, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico II
A new AOI overlaps with the AOI above in the 5-day TWO. Currently 10/30. The EPac has awakened. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:20, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * Assuming I'm not getting this and the above storm confused, this AOI is now up to 10/80 and is expected to become a depression early next week, but the AOI in front of it is only at 10/30, not as likely to develop. I say that this'll be Ileana. Ryan1000 12:49, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * This may be the 10/30 one, I believe. The 10/80 one is the AOI above this one. This may steal Ileana if conditions become favorable, but for now, the AOI above would be the one that has the highest possibility of becoming Ileana. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:55, August 2, 2018 (UTC)
 * Nevermind, I mixed them up. This is the AOI directly behind Hector, but this probably won't develop anyways. Ryan1000 15:04, August 2, 2018 (UTC)

This disturbance is pretty much just Ileana food. Send Help Please (talk) 21:47, August 2, 2018 (UTC)


 * 20/40 now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 03:14, August 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * 30/50. This may be John after all (or Ileana, if the unexpected happens). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:34, August 3, 2018 (UTC)


 * 60/90. This might actually be Ileana first if it spins up fast enough. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:28, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

94E.INVEST
And this has been invested first, actually. Up as 94E on TropicalTidbits. ~ KN2731 {talk} 03:31, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 70/90. Ileana and John could come at the same time due to this and the above system. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:44, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * I think this is the 60/90 one. Regardless, it is most likely that we will see Ileana and John before the succeeding week starts. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 09:10, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Never mind. This is now 70/90 as the invest above is 80/90. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:02, August 4, 2018 (UTC)


 * The chances of this invest forming have actually gone down a bit, to 60%/80%. I guess this one will be Kristy, since 12-E could become John before this forms, unless it gets its act together quickly. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:50, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

If this does become Kristy I doubt it'll be strong, since it will be following in Hector's cold, upwelled wake. Ryan1000 04:48, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Agreed that it probably won't be too powerful, but if it becomes named soon, we could see 4 active named systems in the EPac and CPac! Insane especially after the dead July. Something must have made it more favorable?! ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:14, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * I've heard that people are forecasting an El Niño to form this year, but i'm not sure if this is a cause. I'm guessing it was just the conditions improving like a decrease in wind shear. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:44, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is back in the EPac, and most forecasting agencies expected an El Nino this year to begin with, with higher activity expected in the EPac but less in the Atlantic. Yeah, we may have had two hurricanes in July in the Atlantic but the basin hasn't had much since and isn't expected to anytime soon; the AOI near the Azores right now isn't expected to develop, let alone affect land. Ryan1000 12:51, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: West of Costa Rica
New kid at 10/20, development may be inhibited by future Ileana/John though (the AOI just to the northwest of this thing). --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:52, August 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/30, but I'm not as excited about this system. The other two systems look more likely to become named. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:45, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

96E.INVEST
Invested according to Tropical Tidbits. It's currently at 30/40. EPac is coming back to life. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:03, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Already at 90/90. This one will also form. ChowKam2002 (talk) 18:24, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * The steroids are kicking in now after the E Pac overdosed at the end of June. Send Help Please  (talk) 18:49, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Woah! I did not expect this to jump up so fast. This might beat the two storms ahead of it to become Ileana, and if all 3 systems form, we'll be at Kristy by tomorrow or sometime early next week. The EPac is really kicking up right now. I guess that El Nino that was forecast is truly up in effect for the basin. Ryan1000 18:51, August 4, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eleven-E
Plot twist. This may become Ileana. Still poorly organized as of the moment though. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 04:13, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Up to 30 knots. This may actually win the race and become Ileana. ~ KN2731 {talk} 09:11, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately if it does, it may not become that strong of a fishspinner. Currently forecast to peak at only 50 mph. Ryan1000 13:44, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ileana
And it looks like Ileana has arrived. currently 40 kts/1003 mb, and expected to stay at TS strength. T G  2 0 1 8 20:42, August 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Ileana has now strengthened to 50 mph and 1001 mbars. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 01:46, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * This and Twelve-E look like one big amorphous blob on satellite.  Send Help Please (talk) 02:10, August 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * They're both in surprisingly close proximity, and John could eat up the remnants of Ileana in the long run. For now Ileana is expected to bring impacts to Mexico, and a tropical storm warning has been issued. John shall become the dominant one and prevent Ileana from becoming more than a strong TS. For now, I doubt this will become a hurricane. ~  Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:17, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

2AM (1AM CDT) advisory: 999 mbars, 60 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:24, August 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now 65 mph / 998 mbars. It is now forecast to become a hurricane by the NHC. Sincerely, IbAHAn1829, and stay safe! \(:-D)Chat/Ta ta! 11:47, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Woah, Ileana is maing me (and the NHC) eat our words. It might very well be a hurricane at this rate, but the track now brings her closer to Mexico's coastline. There's a high pressure system over Mexico right now, but the rotation of, and interaction with, her brother John might try to force her closer to the coastline. There could be some impacts with this if that happens. Ryan1000 12:41, August 6, 2018 (UTC)

Retirements at a Glance
Seven storms have formed and we might as well add this section now. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:16, July 31, 2018 (UTC)

A2.0's EastPac retirement expectations

 * Aletta - 4% - Shown us how to start a season. 4% because it peaked as a C4.
 * Bud - 4% - Also 4% because of its Category 4 status. Great follow-up to Aletta, but juat like Bud's predecessor, it caused no harm to land, so that won't merit any realistic chance of retirement for either Aletta or Bud.
 * Carlotta - 5% + Affected Mexico and caused some problems, but no fatalities were recorded so I think Carlotta will be back in 2024.
 * Daniel - 0% - Danfail it is, as Send Help Please called it. Broke the streak of strong hurricanes that bore the same name. Yikes.
 * Emilia - 0% - Another forgettable storm.
 * Fabio - 2% - For peaking as a Category 2. Forecast to become a major, yet Fabio bottled it a la Hilary 2017.
 * Gilma - 0% - Just like what Send Help Please also said, Failma. The Failicia of this season along with Danfail, so far.

That's it.

Originally posted by: Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 17:16, July 31, 2018 (UTC).

Rara's OAP home preddies
§ÖñÖ ÇHÌ ñÖ §ÄÐÄMÈ JÖÖÖÖÖÖÖÖJÖ 17:48, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta (0%): "haha look at me i believe i can fly i believe i can touch the sky no motherf-cker can match me ahahahaha"
 * Bud (0%): "haha i'm gonna beat you! all years before 2006 sucked! now i'm finally a cat 4! i made landfall unlike that dutch twit aletta who is a coward!"
 * Carlotta (0%): "mummy i wanna go to mexico like patwicia"
 * Daniel (0%): "zzzzzz... damn... zzzzzzz"
 * Emilia (0%): "all 1994 cat 5s for sh-t tropical storms in 2018"
 * Fabio (0%): "i am trying to eat more to be a category 5 but i'm not gaining any weight"
 * Gilma (0%): "SMOKE SHEAR EVERYDAY!" rip in kill 3sexy5felicia 2018-2018 never 5get
 * Hector (heh%): heh

Dylan's predictions
--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:20, July 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta: 0% - A beautiful, intense, harmless kick-off to the season.
 * Bud: 1% - Another gorgeous storm to observe over open water, with fortunately minimal effects on land.
 * Carlotta: 2% - Was more of a nuisance for Mexico than expected.
 * Daniel: no
 * Emilia: 0% - Not an epic fail, not much of a winner either. It sort of just existed.
 * Fabio: 0% - 🎶leeeet doooown aaaaand haaaaanging aroooouuund🎵
 * Gilma: 0% - Worse flop than Daniel in terms of intensity but at least it was resilient in its post-TS depression stage.

Roy's Retirement Prediction
Intensity colors: TD, TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 

Retirement percentages colors: 0%, 0.001-9% , 10-19% , 20-29% , 30-39% , <font color="#cf0">40-49% , 50% , <font color="#fe0">51-59% , <font color="#fc0">60-69% , 70-79% , <font color="#f70">80-89% , 90-99% , <font color="#500">100% , ???


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta ( 0% ) - A nice harmless fishspinner. Obviously this won't be going.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud ( 0.001% ) - While it did affected land at the end of its life, this was also pretty much a fishspinner
 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta ( 1% ) - While weak, it has came close to Mexico, but no deaths and damage were reported.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel ( 0% ) - A weak failicia that untimately was a name stealer. Unimpressed
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia ( 0% ) - A rather weak, but a nice fishspinner
 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio ( 0% ) - Nice fishspinning hurricane that broke the TS streak, but failed to reach major hurricane status. Sigh
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma ( 0% ) - Same as Daniel, except weaker, and only lasted 6 hours as a TS. Name-stealer.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Hector (???) - Currently active

NOTE:
 * 1) Should I give a tropical cyclone name a retirement chance of 50% and above, then that tropical cyclone name will be all caps.
 * 2) The triple question marks on my retirement percentage scale is only used as placeholders on an active storm.
 * 3) Storms that exits a basin and enters another basin would not have their own retirement predictions in that basin it entered, instead will have it in the basin of origin.

~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions   02:36, August 1, 2018 (UTC)

Steve's predictions and grades
See "notes" (at the very bottom) for explanations of some stuff.

Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#905">200+ mph

Retirement percentage colors: 0% or N/A, <font color="#77A">0.001-0.4% , <font color="#44C">0.5-0.9% , 1-4% , <font color="#05F">5%-9% , <font color="#0AF">10-14% , <font color="#0FF">15-19% , <font color="#0F8">20-24% , <font color="#0F0">25-29% , <font color="#3F0">30-34% , <font color="#6F0">35-39% , <font color="#9F0">40-44% , <font color="#CF0">45-49% , 50% , <font color="#FC0">51-54% , <font color="#F90">55-59% , <font color="#F60">60-64% , <font color="#F30">65-69% , <font color="#F00">70-74% , <font color="#D01">75-79% , <font color="#B02">80-84% , <font color="#903">85-89% , <font color="#604">90-94% , <font color="#505">95-98% , <font color="#303">99-99.999% , <font color="#000">100% or TBA

Grading colors: <font color="#033">EO+, <font color="#055">EO , <font color="#077">A++ , <font color="#096">A+ , <font color="#0C3">A , <font color="#0F0">A- , <font color="#3F0">B+ , <font color="#6F0">B , <font color="#9F0">B- , <font color="#CF0">C+ , <font color="#FF0">C , <font color="#FC0">C- , <font color="#F90">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#000">TBA


 * <font color="#5ebaff">One-E :
 * Retirement: N/A - No name, no retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#C00">F - Gets credit for its formation before the start of the season. Still a fail, nonetheless.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta :
 * Retirement: 0% - Complete fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A - A nice early season powerful hurricane. As a bonus, no one was affected at all.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud :
 * Retirement: 1% - Struck Baja, but without doing much harm. Caused a moisture plume to reach the southwestern U.S., and that wasn't harmful either. Impacts are too light for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#0F0">A- - Another nicely strong hurricane that reached the bare minimum for C4. Impacts are not enough to affect the grade.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta :
 * Retirement: 2% - Caused torrential rainfall in the area of Mexico that it affected. Impacts are not enough to even think about retirement, though.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - Strong tropical storm that affected land. At least it was not a total failure like the below storm was.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel :
 * Retirement: 0% - Out to sea, no one was affected.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Laughable failure that only lasted 2 days and peaked at no more than 45 mph/1003 mbar. Danfail will be remembered as a complete nothingburger. 😂


 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia :
 * Retirement: 0% - Another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - That very active June was a bit more about quantity than quality. Reached 60 mph, but I don't care for this boring storm.


 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio :
 * Retirement: 0% - Yet another out-to-sea system.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C- - A strong C2 usually doesn't get this low of a grade. But the story is that Fabio's grade really suffered because it was expected to become a major hurricane, but flunked the mark by just 5 mph! In fact, it had potential to RI to reach C4 or possibly even C5. A major disappointment you were, Fabio.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma :
 * Retirement: 0% - Also out to sea.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Even worse than Danfail, and was a TS for only 6 measly hours. Gilfail was one of the worst, and most laughable, name-stealers ever! It did last a few days in total, which is the only thing that prevents it from being Z-.


 * <font color="#5ebaff">Nine-E


 * Retirement: N/A - Cannot be retired.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - It had potential to last even longer than it did. At least it didn't steal a name. Still a pathetic failure though.


 * <font color="#ff8f20">Hector :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement chance will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#00faf4">Ileana :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement chance will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.


 * <font color="#00faf4">John :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Retirement chance will be released once it dissipates.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active. Grade will be released once it dissipates.

Notes: Intensity colors -
 * Based off of the SSHWS, except for the 200+ mph color.
 * I still use "TD" due to the inclusion of grading (they cannot be retired). So it would be wrong for TD to be considered redundant in this case because TDs are still included for grading only.
 * I wanted to give special recognition for cyclones reaching insane intensities by introducing a new color for those that reach the "200 Club." Of course, very few storms will ever receive this color.

Retirement percentage colors -
 * "N/A", which is gray like 0%, is most often used for tropical depressions, which are usually not named and thus cannot have a name retired. Other unnamed storms receive "N/A" as well.
 * "TBA", which is black like 100%, is used for currently active storms or recently dissipated storms without a definite percentage of retirement yet. "TBA" is also used for grading when a system is currently active.
 * 0% and 100% are estimated percentages, in which they don't necessarily mean that it is absolutely certain that a storm name will or won't be retired. Unless it is the PAGASA basin (which has retirement requirements), there will always still be an infinitesimally small chance of retirement (for 0%) or non-retirement (for 100%).
 * New for 2018: My scale comes in ranges now instead of individual percentages. This allows me to use any percentage now instead of having to restrict myself to individual percentages. Any percentage within a range (like from 1-4%) uses the same color (in this example, blue). The range also includes decimals and goes slightly beyond what is shown as the "highest" number in my scale. The actual highest limit to the range earlier described is 4.99999...% (I don't round up to the next range). Those upper limit decimals are not included in my scale in order to preserve space.
 * Different fonts indicate how likely a storm is to be retired. The whole entry of the storm is bolded, italicized, underlined, or capitalized depending on my retirement prediction. For low or nil-chance storms (0% to 24%), only the colored components (storm's name, percentage, and grade) are bolded and the rest of the entry is plain-text. For 25% to 49%, the whole entry is bolded. For 50% to 74%, the whole entry is both bolded and italicized. For 75% to 99.999%, the whole entry is bolded, italicized, and underlined. 100% entries are bolded, italicized, underlined, and capitalized.

Grading colors -
 * EO = "Extraordinarily Outstanding". This is beyond "A", when a TC is so good that it deserves special recognition. Add a "+" to emphasize the best and most outstanding TCs that have ever occurred in history (such as Patricia '15 or John '94). I try to avoid giving this rating to catastrophic storms due to the fact that catastrophe knocks down a storm's reputation, and it would seem insensitive to give such storms a high rating. An EO+ storm has requirements that are stricter than EO: it has to be a fishspinner (or, if affecting land, not cause very significant damage or deaths, which means no Haiyan, Wilma, Irma, etc.) and it has to be very near records (I'd say top 3), tie, or break records relating to powerful intensity, longevity, or how unusual it is. If the achievement is one of the latter two, an EO+ storm has to peak as a major (C3+ on the SSHWS). An exception to the major rule could occur if a storm is INSANELY long-lived or unusual. For example: a tropical system that literally forms in the Arctic Ocean/right on the equator/Antarctic/far inland/other extremely strange spots, or a storm that lasts months would almost always be deserving of "EO+".
 * Z = If the grading scale were to go down the same pattern as A to F, it would go to G, H, etc. and would eventually have to stop at "Z". All the in between letters from G to Y are skipped because it would be way too much, redundant and unnecessary. "Z" is the letter assigned to the worst of the worst, and such storms would be considered epic failures and unmemorable because of a lack of land effects. If I gave a highly impacting storm a Z, it might seem insensitive because the storm actually did something. Add a "-" to the grade to emphasize the worst epic failures that ever occurred in history. Specific requirements for the Z- storm are as follows: Fishspinner (or barely affecting land) due to lack of memorability, peaks at no more than 40 mph, lasts no longer than one day, or is downgraded from a TS to a TD or worse in post-analysis while still named. Although weak named TSs receive Z- on occasion, even fishspinning TDs don't receive the Z- grade that often because, in my opinion, stealing a precious name is a worse offense than remaining unnamed. If a system is named, more should be expected out of it.
 * Except for the extreme grades and "E", this scale is obviously based off of the educational grading system.

~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🌞   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:06, August 1, 2018 (UTC) (last updated 05:47, August 6, 2018 (UTC))

Ryan1000's retirement predictions
Looks like we've got Hector now, so that makes for 8 storms in the EPac so far. So here's my thoughts on retirements: That'll suffice. Ryan1000 04:44, August 1, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta - 0% - A great way to start the season, and her strongest incarnation to date as well.
 * Bud - 1% - Like Aletta, this is the strongest incarnation of Bud to date, but his Baja landfall brought minimal effects at most.
 * Carlotta - 2% - This was to Bud as Carlos was to Blanca in 2015, a slightly worse storm but still probably won't be retired.
 * Daniel - 0% - It's a shame that Daniel, one of our traditional EPac major fishspinners, flopped this time around...try better in 6 years.
 * Emilia - 0% - Fared slightly better than Daniel but was still unimpressive overall.
 * Fabio - 0% - Reminds me of Hilary last year. He failed to meet expectations, but his large size held him back.
 * Gilma - 0% - Lasted longer than Daniel but failed worse than he did by intensity.
 * Hector - ?? - Still active, but expected to pass south of Hawaii down the road.
 * Ileana - ?? - Still active, but forecast to remain south of Mexico.
 * John - ?? - Still active, but currently forecast to remain south of Mexico. Hopefully that's the case down the road, however strong he gets.

KN2731's storm grades & retirements
I'll jump on the bandwagon and add mine too.

Grades:  A, B , C , D , E , F . These grades go by meteorological statistics alone, and do not reflect my opinion of any deaths or destruction that occurs; for that refer to the appended descriptions and retirement chances.

Retirements: <font color="#808080">0%, <font color="#FF007F">5% , <font color="#FF00FF">10% , <font color="#7F00FF">15% , <font color="#0000FF">20% , <font color="#0080FF">25% , <font color="#00FFFF">30% , <font color="#00FF80">35% , <font color="#00FF00">40% , <font color="#80FF00">50% , <font color="#FFFF00">60% , <font color="#FF8000">70% , <font color="#FF0000">80% , <font color="#990000">90% , <font color="#330000">100% .


 * One-E – grade  D . Couldn't do much in the face of shear, but gave us an early start.
 * Aletta – grade  A , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Amazing powerful June fishspinner. Well done for our first ever major hurricane Aletta.
 * Bud – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Touched C4 but rapidly weakened immediately after. Thankful for that however as it made landfall on Baja California not long after, and didn't cause much damage.
 * Carlotta – grade  B , retirement <font color="#FF007F">5% . Intensified surprisingly quickly close to land despite being forecast to fizzle. Not much damage reported, so that's all good.
 * Daniel – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Historically Daniel was the name of a long line of fishspinning majors. Completely flopped this year with its weakest ever incarnation. Boo.
 * Emilia – grade  E , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Chose the wrong time and place to form and got burdened by shear.
 * Fabio – grade  C , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Great fishspinner, but lost points for peaking just under major hurricane status. :(
 * Gilma – grade  F , retirement <font color="#808080">0% . Utterly pathetic name thief. Probably doesn't even deserve a grade.
 * Nine-E – grade  E . See Emilia.
 * Hector –  currently active  as a C3.
 * Ileana – <font color="#808080">coming soon . Race for Ileana is on.
 * John – <font color="#808080">coming soon . Runner-up of the race will get this name, but it's a name with a powerful history.
 * Kristy – <font color="#808080">coming soon . Loser of the race will get this name.

~ KN2731 {talk}. Last updated: 09:19, August 5, 2018 (UTC)

Harvey's retirement predictions
Intensity colors: <font color="#5ebaff">TD, <font color="#00faf4">TS , <font color="#ffffcc">C1 , <font color="#ffe775">C2 , <font color="#ffc140">C3 , <font color="#ff8f20">C4 , <font color="#ff6060">C5 , <font color="#8b0000">C5 (185+ mph)

Retirement percentage colors: <font color="#666">0% or <font color="#666">N/A, <font color="#AFFFFF">0.001-0.9% , <font color="#00FFFF">1-9% , <font color="#00D5D5">10-19% , <font color="#00A0A0">20-29% , <font color="#00A000">30-39% , <font color="#FFC800">40-49% , <font color="#FF8800">50-59% , <font color="#E80000">60-69% , <font color="#B40000">70-79% , <font color="#800000">80-89% , <font color="#000000">90-99% , <font color="#000080">100% 

Grading colors:  S, A+++ , A++ , <font color="#00F">A+ , <font color="#0CC">A , <font color="#0C3">A- , <font color="#0F0">B+ , <font color="#3F0">B , <font color="#6F0">B- , <font color="#9F0">C+ , <font color="#CF0">C , <font color="#FF0">C- , <font color="#FC0">D+ , <font color="#F60">D , <font color="#F30">D- , <font color="#F00">E , <font color="#C00">F , <font color="#900">F- , <font color="#600">Z , <font color="#300">Z- , <font color="#0000FF">TBA 


 * <font color="#5ebaff">One-E :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F - Mostly a fail, but it did form in the early season.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Aletta :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - This storm did not affect land.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A - This storm gets a high grade due to the rapid deepening and the great satellite imagery at peak intensity. This is the strongest incarnation of this storm to date.
 * <font color="#ff8f20">Bud :
 * Retirement: <font color="#AFFFFF">0.7% - It did struck Baja late in its life as a weak TS, however impacts are too minimal for retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#0C3">A- - Like the above storm, it was a powerful early storm that was the strongest of its incarnation, however this one was slightly weaker.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Carlotta :
 * Retirement: <font color="00FFFF">1% - Caused torrential rainfall in Mexico. Impacts are minimal and do not affect the retirement.
 * Grading: <font color="#F60">D - This would become the first of many weak storms in the season. Impacts aren't memorable enough to affect the grade.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Daniel :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fish storm.
 * Grading: <font color="#600">Z - Just about every other incarnation of this storm was a fishspinner that reached major hurricane status, but this one broke the chain and decided to fail miserably. Ugh...
 * <font color="#00faf4">Emilia :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#F00">E - Another weak fishspinner. Another fail, but it didn't fail too hard.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Fabio :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Yet another fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#FC0">C - Well, it could have been higher, but it's only because it failed even though it was expected to be a major. And it was 5 mph away from becoming one, and might have even had the chance to become a C4 or possibly even C5. I would have put it lower, but at least it did reach a high intensity.
 * <font color="#00faf4">Gilma :
 * Retirement: <font color="#666">0% - Another fish-spinning fishspinner.
 * Grading: <font color="#300">Z- - It barely lasted more than two days, and was only a TS for 6 hours. In other words, it didn't try at all.
 * <font color="#5ebaff">Nine-E


 * Retirement: <font color="#666">N/A
 * Grading: <font color="#900">F- - Another weak depression. At least it didn't steal a name like the above storm did.
 * <font color="#ffe775">Hector :
 * Retirement: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active.
 * Grading: <font color="#000">TBA - Currently active.

Notes: Harveycane  (Talk |  Contributions)  07:52, August 3, 2018 (UTC)
 * Storm names in italics indicate currently active storms.

Lee’s retirement predictions
Leeboy100 Hello!! 07:18, August 4, 2018 (UTC)
 * Aletta- 0%: Nice harmless Category 4 to start the season. However, no impacts= no retirement.
 * Bud-1%: Another Category 4. Made landfall in Baja, but didn’t do much. It’s staying.
 * Carlotta-2%: Like Bud, it caused some impacts to land. Still, also like Bud, it’s staying.
 * Daniel-0%: Well, it existed. That’s about all I can say.
 * Emilia-0%: Ehhhh.
 * Fabio-0%: Was a nice system to look at for a few days.
 * Gilma-0%: Absolutely not.
 * Hector- Currently Active. Currently a major, supposed to head towards Hawaii. We’ll see.

Post-Season Changes
Already we have our first TCR, its for One-E. Only change was that the pressure was raised to 1007, and One-E's duration was decreased by one day. -- Roy 25  23:11, July 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Aletta is out. No changes happened to her though. Ryan1000 14:17, August 1, 2018 (UTC)