Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/September

92L.INVEST
I was watching this all day and it just got invested! 20% for this African wave. Could be Jose or Katia or whatever the Katrina replacement is CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:20, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

Katia is Katrina's replacement name. Hurricane Andrew (444) 02:23, August 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * This will likely become Jose. The wave behind this one will likely become Katia. Both have high model support however Katia will likely be overshadowed by her bigger brother Jose (as with Earl and Fiona of last year). Now the wave behind this might not be Katia as some models show a monsoonal TS forming in the Gulf around the same time this one forms, so it will be likely a race to the dreaded name. Yqt1001 02:45, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * But what is surprising is all the named storms we have until now i think last year we were by Earl or Fiona and I think Jose will become a name storm before September. Allanjeffs 03:08, August 28, 2011 (UTC)

30% chance now. Yqt1001 06:04, August 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * The models are a bit crazed with this one. Some take it northward and out to sea several days down the road and one of them even has it reversing direction at the end of the forecast period. All in all, I hope the long run takes will take this north of the lesser antillies and away from the eastern seaboard. Irene has already been bad enough... Ryan1000 06:59, August 28, 2011 (UTC)


 * Well i was wrong with my names, looks like this will be Katia. 40% chance now. Yqt1001 14:18, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS has this going above Leeward Islands.Cyclone10 18:52, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70% nowAllanjeffs 19:16, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow, here comes Katia. But although it will likely be a strong hurricane, it will probrably head north of the leewards and far out to sea. Ryan1000 19:32, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * And the train rolls on... -- SkyFury 23:22, August 28, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now at 100% CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:27, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm certain this is TD 12.10 L. NONAME 00:37, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

The models are in general agreement it will miss the lesser antillies to the north, with the exeption of NOGAPS, taking it towards the northern end of the islands in the long run. Hopefully it does remain a fish storm, Irene was bad enough... Ryan1000 05:41, August 29, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 12

 * TD 12 is born expect to be Katia later.Allanjeffs 08:44, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * The latest NHC forecast takes it north of the Lesser Antillies in the long run. Although we may get our second hurricane out of this storm it probrably won't affect land, so this storm won't be such a big problem unless it makes it's way far enough west to affect Bermuda. However, the Bermuda High is still in the position to take this storm out to sea, and I hope that does happen for all intents and purposes. Ryan1000 09:06, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still not Katia. Also, if anyone cares about records, if TD 12 becomes TS Katia by the end of the month, this year will tie 1995 and 1933 for the second most active August ever (7 storms), behind only 2004's all time record (8 storms). Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:24, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * But then again, 6 out of 7 were tropical storms only. 2004, in August, already had 2 major hurricanes (3 if you count Alex) and 5 hurricanes (counting Alex).
 * How fitting would it be if Katia was christened today, the sixth anniversary of Katrina's landfall? That's more than a little eerie. And btw, despite the fact that we've only had one hurricane, we're only six days behind 2005's record pace. Katrina was named on August 23, Lee on August 31. Only 2005, 1995 and 1933 were ahead of our current pace at this point in the season, the latter by a mere 24 hours. -- SkyFury 21:22, August 29, 2011 (UTC)
 * TD12 is expected to gradually intensify over the next few days. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:29, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Our 11 name storm of the season has come to us AL, 12, 2011083000,, BEST, 0, 108N, 294W, 35, 1006, TS. Allanjeffs 01:29, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow dang it I was just about to say that by posting on the NHC RBT. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:23, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Sorry cobra strike Allanjeffs 01:30, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Its alright, you're always first on calling RBTs : P. Anyways, the formation of 12 and to be Katia is the fifth earliest date for the season's eleventh storm. We used to be ranked higher, but 2011 was pushed back by 3 eleventh storms that formed on the same day and the same hour that took spots in second third and fourth. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:46, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * sorry that I am ignorant but what does RBT means Allanjeffs 02:17, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't know but I think I heard somewhere in means Running Best Track. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:23, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG they change td to ts but in the public advisory they leave it as td 12 i am so confusedAllanjeffs 02:48, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG they change td to ts but in the public advisory they leave it as td 12 i am so confusedAllanjeffs 02:48, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG they change td to ts but in the public advisory they leave it as td 12 i am so confusedAllanjeffs 02:48, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

I'm surprised it went this long without becoming Katia, but it should get the upgrade soon and then pass north of the Lesser Antillies and after that towards Bermuda, or best-case scenario, a fishspinner altogether. Ryan1000 03:23, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

But if you read the NHC discussion at day 5 it says it could move west Allanjeffs 03:44, August 30, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia
The eleventh named storm of the season formed south of the Cape Verde Islands on August 29, 2011 - the same day that Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Jose dissipated. The system became a tropical storm on August 30, receiving the name which was used to replace Katrina. It is likely to strengthen into a hurricane.

Extracted from the Wikipedia Section. Anoynymous022 5:55PM (UTC+8) 30 Aug 2011


 * It's about time! I didn't think Katia would take this long to become a TS, but I won't argue with mother nature. Keep your eyes out for her. Although she is currently forecast to miss the lessers, she has a chance to not miss them as well. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 13:03, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * She might have a chance to hit Bermuda.10L.NONAME 20:42, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph other way she makes landfall or not she will bring big bumber to the ACE Allanjeffs 20:46, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * This will probably be our first Cape Verde-type hurricane since Hurricane Julia unless you count Lisa as one. Forecast to be a major and slip betweeen Bermuda and coast. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:58, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFDL is suggesting a 150kt (170 mph) category 5 hurricane. IVCN modelling a 125kt (140 mph) category 4. ICON, SHIPS, and HWRF all looking for sold 125 mph category 3s. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:38, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I see this unlucky storm gets the fateful name. Yqt1001 23:05, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * OMG I just saw that if katia becomes the strongest of the season i will win in the strongest storm of the season betting poolsAllanjeffs 23:32, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's going to have a good chance of becoming the season's strongest storm, but it doesn't have much of a chance of becoming a monster for anyone. Ryan1000 23:37, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Guessing by the WINDSAT pass of Katia finding 55kt (65 mph) winds on the outer perimeter of the central dense overcast, I see that the max winds should be at hurricane strength by now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:27, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

I don't think I need to tell anybody that this is a scary storm. But right now the models seem to think it'll ride the break in the ridge and stay out at sea. We'll see if that turns out to be the case. This looks like it's going to be a big one. Katia didn't quite make the Katrina anniversary, not forming until early this morning, but still pretty eerie. -- SkyFury 02:01, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * And the new advisory keeps the intensity. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:53, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * It appears an eye is forming around the center, could be a sign. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 03:01, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * We can't truly know it will be a fishspinner, and the slightest nudge in it's path can make all the difference; although Luis of 1995 and Dog of 1950 missed most of the Lesser Antillies, they didn't miss them by enough not to cause major damage. Luis tore apart St. Martin and a few other Caribbean Islands, doing around 2.5 billion in damage, and Dog was the worst hurricane in Antigua's history. There is still a possibility it could strike the northern Lesser Antillies and/or Bermuda, so although it's likely it won't affect land, it isn't impossible either, so don't write this system off just yet. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 04:40, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still at 65 mph, I have hope Katia will become a hurricane today. Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:53, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * All of the models take this north of the lesser antillies, but it still isn't out of the question, and only GFS takes this thing onto a collision course with Bermuda in the long run. Furthermore, it is only forecast to hit 105 mph by SHIPS... Ryan1000 16:38, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70mph at 5pm. NHC: ...KATIA ALMOST A HURRICANE... Yqt1001 20:43, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Convection banding and organization has become better improved, very likely to be a hurricane next advisory. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:25, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Convection banding and organization has become better improved, very likely to be a hurricane next advisory. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:25, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia
Second hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season is here, according to the NHC ATCF RBT. Still sticking with a more west/southwesterly track than the NHC is indicating, but I still believe the only land areas that have to watch out for this is Bermuda and/or Canada. Earl-Igor hybrid maybe? Darren 23 Edits 00:40, September 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hurricane Katia the second of the 2011 hurricane season AL, 12, 2011090100,, BEST, 0, 148N, 436W, 65, 987, HU, Allanjeffs 01:06, September 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * Finally heating up near Cape Verde and Mid- Atlantic.10L.NONAME 01:38, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This thing is no big threat to the lesser antillies in the long run, and even if Bermuda does get winded a bit, it hopefully it won't pull a Fabian. Ryan1000 03:50, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia (2nd time)
Apparently 15 kts of shear are taking a toll on Katia; it's down to 60 kts, 990 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 22:10, September 1, 2011 (UTC)


 * It seems the Lesser Antilles are definitely off the hook and perhaps Bermuda as well. Besides of that it might be pretty everything from Florida to Newfoundland or a fish-storm. Considering a US landfall, that might be even more dangerous as it would be for itself since Irene did not what many feared and with all the bla bla about "Has the NHC overwarned?" What I want to say, maybe people won't react very much anymore. --88.102.101.245 22:18, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * WTF?? I never saw this thing weakening in my future... Well, now that it's powering down, it might be a greater threat to the lesser Antillies than I earlier thought. I still hope it does stay away from the U.S. mainland, but I can't say the Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico will get nothing at this rate. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 22:29, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's not going to even come close to the Caribbean islands. Not even the GFDL, which has been the southern outlier all along, brings it close enough to do more than kick up the surf. Where the hell did this shear come from, geez? Some of the models made the upper low a player but none of them forecast this much shear this soon and for this long. That low has dug in and is not lifting out like expected. If anything, it's strengthened. Assuming it lifts out soon, which virtually all the models still call for, Katia should become a major hurricane. The GFS and HWRF make this a big problem for Bermuda. However, some of the models, like the ECMWF and GFDL, try to rebuild the ridge late in the period and push the storm more to the west. This would bring the the US east coast into play. And God knows they don't need another hurricane. -- SkyFury 03:32, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia (2nd time)
Back up to 65 kts, 991 mbar. NHC is predicting a left-hand turn late in the forecast period; wrong way, Katia. --HurricaneMaker99 15:06, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Katia, head in the direction of nowhere. We don't want you to be bad, so do us all a favor and miss everyone out to sea. Ryan1000 15:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Boy, Katia's really making me nervous with this ridging trying to build back in later in the period. The GFS and ECMWF create a huge break in the ridge at the end of the period, which would take Katia right up towards New England just in time for the 9/11 anniversary activities. Katia could very well make landfall sometime late on the 11th or early on the 12th. The GFDL and HWRF have stronger ridging and push a major hurricane Katia toward the Carolinas. I'm not sure I like either option, though with the first at least there's a chance Katia could miss the east coast entirely, but I get the sense that that cavernous break in the ridge at the end of the run may be overdone. It just opens up out of nowhere like Moses parting the Red Sea. Seems unrealistic. Anyway, this one is definately making me nervous. -- SkyFury 20:31, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

There was an interesting post by Jeff Masters today. A meteorologist for the TCWC of the Bureau of Meteorology in Perth, Australia pointed out that the fate of former Typhoon Talas is crucial wether a building through over the United States comes in time and will be strong enough to push Katia to the Northeast before she's reaching land or only until after landfalling somewhere. According to that guy the JMA believes that Talas will accelerate towards the Bering Sea and begin extratropical transistion which it should finish somewhere south of Alaska. And there's the point where Mr. Masters is kind of vague. I wasn't able to figure out which circumstances would via jetstream influence the building up of the through. But never mind, it seems that the models don't know better either. :-) --88.102.101.245 22:15, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Pressure still a bit high for a hurricane. 10L.NONAME 22:20, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Katia is starting to rack my nerves a bit, but the trough that's currently passing the central Atlantic will hopefully knock her down a bit as another trough approaches the eastern seaboard over the next few days, which is currently over the Midwest. Let's hope that trough beats Katia to the eastern seaboard. As of now, if Katia heads far enough west, It could pull a Dora or a Sea Islands hurricane for the folks in Jacksonville, Florida, Savannah, Georgia, or even end up in Charelston, SC. I think a New England hurricane repeat is overexaggerating by a mile, but we'll see. Ryan1000 22:55, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

This storm is just crazy. 06z ATCF BTK has this at 60 kts... again. Darren 23 Edits 12:12, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

So far, saddest excuse for a hurricane. 10L.NONAME 14:48, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Still a hurricane according to the latest NHC update. Yqt1001 14:58, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Katia (3rd time)
60 knots. This time because of upper-level winds. 10L.NONAME 21:03, September 3, 2011 (UTC)


 * WTF? It's not like it's affecting land or anything... No need to be generous here. Still a hurricane. Darren 23 Edits 14:58, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * T numbers are back up to 4. Looks like 12 hours as a TS again..at most. :| Yqt1001 21:42, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gah, Katia just can't get her act together. The shear is stronger than it was earlier anticipated. It may only peak as a C2 at this rate, but it likely will miss the eastern seaboard anyways. Ryan1000 04:00, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia (3rd time)
Katia's a hurricane again, per a 1100 UTC update statement. She can't make up her mind, can she :/ --HurricaneMaker99 11:49, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now a category 2 hurricane per latest ATCF information. wtf???Darren 23 Edits 12:43, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wait, what?! Do you have a link? --HurricaneMaker99 12:52, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here and AL, 12, 2011090412,, BEST, 0, 216N, 588W, 85, 968, HU Darren 23 Edits 12:59, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * btw, they got this intensity from Buoy data. Darren 23 Edits 13:08, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Do I dare say..RI? That's quite a pressure drop especially considering it was a TS not long ago. Yqt1001 14:21, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * It'll definitely be interesting to see what the NHC says with their next advisory. If that sort of trend keeps up, Katia could be Ike-ing or Igor-ing out. Somehow I don't remember Igor's episode very clearly (my most vivid memory of Igor was waking up to find it on the doorstep of Cat 5; that was just too freaking cool), so I'll just say that I haven't seen this sort of intensification in the Atlantic since Ike. --HurricaneMaker99 14:32, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh, and I see an eye trying to form: --HurricaneMaker99 14:40, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Do I dare say I called it..? ...KATIA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... 100mph winds. Yqt1001 14:53, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down 26 mbar in just 6 hours... I'm getting a gut feeling that Katia's dropping the EI bomb here. --HurricaneMaker99 14:58, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eye visible. 10L.NONAME 15:31, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The eye is clearing out on visible, and infrared images have the eye better defined. This is a strong storm in the making undergoing RICobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:55, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah it already looks better than Irene. This might be a category 3 at the next update if they can find a buoy to get that data from. It sure is looking like one. Yqt1001 16:46, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The eye seems to be clouding up...again. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:48, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...but nonetheless ATCF is now at 105 mph. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:52, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Her eyewall wasn't fully closed until the clouds covered her eye. So technically she is actually organizing, but I'm not sure if she is still strengthening. Yqt1001 20:21, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa, hello! Well, sounds like Katia got out of the shear lol! While my gut feeling is that it's going to turn away from the Carolinas and maybe the east coast entirely, everyone along the eastern seaboard still needs to pay real close attention to this thing. -- SkyFury 20:28, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * MIMIC, for some reason, STILL doesn't support very strong winds. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:32, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * New advisory at 105 mph as in the ATCF. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:15, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The latest forecast track takes Katia turning off the eastern seaboard, but Bermuda can't be ruled out yet. It all really depends on how slow this thing moves. Ryan1000 05:23, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 100mph because of what seems to be an EWRC. Looks like the EWRC is over and man does Katia look beautiful. She seems to be strengthening again. Yqt1001 14:01, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Katia is now just a hair away from becoming the season's second MH; 95 kts and counting! Pressure back down to 965 mbar as well. --HurricaneMaker99 14:53, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

...KATIA STRENGTHENS AND DEVELOPS A LARGE EYE... 110mph, maybe MH at next update? Yqt1001 14:50, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Oh man, raw T numbers are getting close to 7 (140kts) with adjusted following close behind and final remaining at strong category 3. Yqt1001 16:48, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Omg this storm is absolutely beautiful. Large contracting eye, really really deep convection on the south and multiple vortices in the eye. Only the NE side of the storm is in dire need of repair, but it sure doesn't look like it does on visible. This storm is just beautiful. *tears up* Yqt1001 17:43, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is such a great looking Katia. That eye keeps getting better and that southern outflow, omg. Starting to remind me of Isabel. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:07, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * And her eye is starting to cloud over again (has tightened a bit too much) and the NE quadrant has been taking a huge beating. Not as pretty but still a category 3 storm imho. Yqt1001 20:28, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NE quad was healing noon time but now I see a gap in the NE quadrant in the water vapor. May fall apart or repair again. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:32, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

Major Hurricane Katia
UPDATED: with 115 mph winds.10L.NONAME 20:42, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Here we go! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:51, September 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * ...KATIA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...BIGGEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA... 115mph because of the poor quality of the NE eyewall according to the discussion. She seems to be repairing it now though. Yqt1001 20:57, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Correct the eyewall is under repair again. "Pimples" and thunderstorm tops are growing. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:05, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * The NE quadrant has been completely repaired, with very cold cloudtops forming over the repair site, but now the north and NW quadrants are thining out. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:33, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I think Katia looks the most organized she has been yet. Might be too late for a category 4 storm though, but we'll see. Yqt1001 22:55, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree. The eyewall has been repaired, strong convection on all quadrants. The west side seems to be thinning a bit but not much. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:29, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

According to the ATCF (I think that's what it's called, I'm not sure :P but anyways its the official data source the NHC uses), Katia is now a 135mph category 4 hurricane with pressures 4mb higher than Irene. We will have to see what NHC does and if they issue a special update or not to confirm this.. Yqt1001 00:38, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Starting to remind me of Bill 2009. (And yes its called the ATCF). CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:16, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * KATIA now a cat 4 AL, 12, 2011090600,, BEST, 0, 256N, 640W, 115, 946, HUAllanjeffs 01:39, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I haven't seen it upgraded by NHC yet, but it's pressure might still stay above Irene's even at it's peak. This storm may affect Bermuda and the east coast with some rain and waves, but most of the models take it between Bermuda and the eastern seaboard, so hopefully this will be a fishie in the future. Ryan1000 01:55, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now official.10L.NONAME 02:39, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yep, it's now 115/946. That'll probrably be her peak, if not a teeny bit stronger. It's pressure is still above Irene's though. Ryan1000 02:41, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC has Katia maintaining MH strength really far north, if not farther north than Bermuda. Bermuda is good for strong storms, but I'm not sure about direct hits from category 3/4 hurricanes. Atleast they aren't in the path of this storm! Yqt1001 02:54, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Man, what did Katia eat for breakfast this morning? Wow! That said, it looks a little disheveled on the satellite. No sign of the symmetrical appearance the discussion talked about. With this thing looking like it's going to stay out at sea, I think we can safely start to root for it. -- SkyFury 04:54, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * SkyFury, right after the NHC posted the upgrade to category 4 she just fell apart. She has lost her eye and a lot of her deep convection, looks like she is over. Fun to watch and absolutely beautiful earlier yesterday though. Yqt1001 14:06, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says she is going under an EWRC. She has weakened to 115mph at the 2pm update, forgot that they are issuing updates every 3 hours now that Bermuda has 3 hour updates... Yqt1001 18:14, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Katia (4th time)
Now down to 105 mph by the latest advisory, though it isn't over yet for Bermuda and the eastern Seaboard. However, I think we can safely assume Katia will miss most land. Ryan1000 21:06, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * I agree. NHC predicts that we will get a "Hurricane Katia (5th time)" header, expected to regain MH strength after EWRC is over and then weaken to a hurricane again. Yqt1001 21:14, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * True. Infrared imagery is still solid despite a waning Katia this morning. However, despite 105 mph estimates from the official NHC, the MIMIC supports 130 mph winds. ? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:18, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Dry air has recently penetrated Katia's western rainbands and is now en route to the central dense overcast. This pocket of dry air may cause problems in the hurricane's EWRC. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:42, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * "...INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL OF KATIA IS DECAYING WITHIN A LARGER EYEWALL...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS NEARING THE END OF ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD OF KATIA SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO." New advisory. Same intensity. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:55, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 85mph winds now. Yqt1001 19:51, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * And down to 80mph. Yqt1001 21:20, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I knew the dry air pocket would affect her someday. Still a pretty big category 1, just like Irene was, just like Igor was. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:10, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * From Discussion 41:
 * A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS KATIA OR ITS

POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. INDEED...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE NEARING THE NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM.


 * I am wondering when the NHC gets rid of the hot potato by declaring the system extra-tropical, since Katia is nearing an area outside the NHC Miami AOR and so to avoid any complications of not established warning procedures.
 * I also read an article assuming that if Katia would dig into Scandinavia as a large rotating system it could prolongue the summer in Middle Europa by transporting warm air masses into that region south of its counter-clockwise rotation. --88.102.101.245 11:09, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * The whole North Atlantic is NHC's AOR! GFS has this making landfall in Norway.10L.Isaac 12:17, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * NHC says Katia has weakened to 85mph, last I looked it was 80mph, what was its second peak? Yqt1001 19:09, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Is that an eye in Katia starting to form? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:52, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Indeed it is. Katia's still holding together nicely, I'm impressed. She's up to 44 advisories now and she'll probably make it to at least 50. That's an impressive level of longevity (For anyone curious, Ivan's record of 73 is going to stand for a while. Igor was last year's leader at 55). "THIS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE BRITISH ISLES BY MONDAY." Yikes! Look out, UK! "London calling, to the far away towns. Now war is declared - the battle come down. London calling, to the underworld. Come out of the cupboard, you boys and girls." That song's been stuck in my head ever since I read that advisory. -- SkyFury 07:58, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Avila ended the 5am discussion well: "NO 96-HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN BECAUSE FORECAST POINTS IN THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE BREAK A LOT OF SOFTWARE." It is still out there at 85mph somehow. Yqt1001 12:44, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Lol! That's hilarious! I didn't see that one. I love those guys. I was just getting ready to say, they might want to try and fix that. I know we don't get a lot of storms in the eastern hemisphere, but that seems kind of silly. How about that cone of uncertainty? It's almost non-existent. It don't think I've ever seen a CoU that narrow in my life, and this is my 7th season tracking hurricanes regularly online. Crazy. This is starting to look ugly for the UK, they better pay attention to this, because Katia's headed their way in a hurry. -- SkyFury 05:01, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Still a Category 1, and I would be really surprised if Katia becomes Faith 2.0. Hurricane Andrew (444) 12:49, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Katia
Sorry Andrew, that won't happen. The last advisory has now been issued; it's an extratropical cyclone. Ryan1000 16:23, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * And now she is extratropical with hurricane force windsAllanjeffs 16:22, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Katia delivered quite a show. Though a fishstorm she let us keep our breath. However the folks in the North of the British Isles and Norway will keep an eye on Katia's post-tropical career. Some models I saw predict that the system will landfalling in Scotland with sustained winds of 50 knots and more. --88.102.101.245 23:09, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Western Caribbean
After churning at sea for days, this tropical wave has become organized enough to be included in the National Hurricane Center's tropical weather outlook. It is currently at 10% as it moves westward over the next few days. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:08, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm pretty sure this will become Lee. This also might make another US landfall. Only thing is, it will be meandering around in the GOM for a few days, and this could wind up to a strong tropical storm like the ECMWF is suggesting. We'll see. Darren 23 Edits 22:24, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not so sure. This area of disturbed weather is going to be interacting with land as it heads towards the gulf and it's not too well-organized. If anything, this could be a re-Erin(or better a re-Don) at most, but as of now, this storm isn't future Lee in my book. Ryan1000 23:27, August 30, 2011 (UTC)
 * Some models like this storm. Well, we will have to see what happens to it over the next day or two. Yqt1001 01:15, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * Both the GFS and ECMWF develop this, though neither of them seem to know what to do with it trapped beneath that high pressure. The GFS stalls it off Louisiana for days and then drifts it toward Florida (that would be really miserable for us down here on the Gulf Coast). The European promptly runs it into Texas. -- SkyFury 02:06, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

It's likely this thing will bring some rain, the drought-stricken state of Texas needs some rain, and Don didn't do sh!t to help out. So we could actually use a TS in Texas, so long as it isn't a re-Erin or a re-Allison. Ryan1000 04:40, August 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * 30% chance now. Not officially invested yet though.. Yqt1001 17:49, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
And it's invested. Yqt1001 18:32, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

Wildfires in Texas. Seems like they really need rain. 10L.NONAME 21:08, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

60% now Allanjeffs 23:47, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

Well, we have a possible tropical storm in our hands! And if this does become Lee by 11 PM CDT, 2011 will have tied August 2004 for the highest named storms in August (note: by local time, not GMT). Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:42, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Too bad, UTC is what counts :P Lee is going to be very, very tricky to forecast. There's a wide spread on the models and tracking mets, anywhere from Northeastern Mexico to the Florida Panhandle. Personally, I'm gonna hold back forecasting on this storm as I really think this will stall over very very warm parts of the GOM. Darren 23 Edits 00:45, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * GDFL has this going west, HWRF has this going east, and NOGAPS, GFS has this going north, then going back to the gulf. A lot of confusion. 10L.NONAME 01:12, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60% already!? Wow that was 2 days earlier than I expected. I honestly didn't think this would have a chance to organize until tomorrow at the earliest. Looks like Lee might be closer than we expected. Yqt1001 02:56, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa! Last I saw this thing, it was only at 10%. To be honest, looking at the satellite, I'm not all that impressed. It's getting sheared to hell right now. Granted the shear should decrease soon, as most of the models are predicting, but I'm not sure I would've upped it to 60% yet. That said, virtually all the models develop this. The GFS crawls it right by us down here in southern Alabama, which would be miserably soggy. Yuck. -- SkyFury 03:29, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This is a big f**king mistake. How in the world could this thing hit 60% right now? It's in a hellhole of shear and it will be interacting with land real soon. Oh well. That being said, it probrably won't be as helpful to Texas as I thought it would be. Furthermore, it probrably won't exceed minor or moderate TS intensity. I would expect 50-55 mph at most. Ryan1000 03:50, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Don´t think so if it becomes Lee it has a big shot at becoming a hurricane Allanjeffs 04:10, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's actually less organized than it looks. The center of circulation is in the south-central gulf of Mexico, not near the Florida Keys where all the convection is. So Lee is actually a bit winded as of now, and due to it's proxmitity to land(1-2 days away), it won't have too much time to strengthen anyways. Ryan1000 05:02, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This one has me completely confused. First of all, the models develop it in the western Gulf south of Louisiana, what the hell is it doing off the western tip of Cuba? Second, the models, all of which develop it, mind you, sweep it down to the southwest. Southwest? Huh? That's such an odd direction for storms in the Gulf. There've been a few, Anita 1977 most notably, but it is damn rare. GFS takes it over northeast Mexico as a strong tropical storm. The ECMWF blows it up into a hurricane and runs it over Padre Island. The GFDL runs it into Port Arthur as a Cat 1 (oh yeah that's realistic ) before making the southwest turn. HWRF meanwhile is so completely confused its head just explodes; dancing the storm around the northern Gulf like a hamster on LSD. The one consistency is that they all develop it into at least a tropical storm. Given the level of uncertainty right now, this is definately one to watch. -- SkyFury 06:53, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are a little crazed on where this one will go; in a way, this reminds me of 1985's Juan and it's bizzare track towards southern Louisiana. All of the models take 93L into, or close to, Louisiana to some extent, but they are completly puzzled as to what it will do afterwards... Ryan1000 08:56, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70%10L.NONAME 12:05, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * 80% now. I wonder what the NHC track will look like for this storm when it does develop. Ryan1000 19:01, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * This storm could really complicate my Labor Day weekend, especially if the GFS forecast verifies. I was going to drive home to Atlanta tomorrow. It looks like I may be able to just make it before the heavy rain arrives but the NWS is now calling for 5-10 inches of rain here in Mobile over the weekend, possibly more. And even though it may ease up by the time I come back, who knows what the flooding situation will look like. The models are having a tough time with this one. You're right, Ryan, it really does remind me of Juan, which is really bad news for Louisiana. The GFS stalls it off Louisiana and slowly crawls it east over the northern Gulf Coast before finally weakening it over central Alabama and GA. The ECMWF also stalls it off LA but then shifts it back south, blows it up into a hurricane and then runs it into Galveston. Who knows what this thing'll do. It could do just about anything at this point. -- SkyFury 21:00, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * The models are very spaghettish with this one, but they all reject Texas. : (. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:48, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Although it could catch the folks there off-guard, it hopefully won't cause too many problems for them... It certainly won't be as problematic as Irene was, but this storm certainly bears watching. A re-Allison is what i'm fearing most, but a re-Juan would also be devastating as well. Ryan1000 21:54, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * TD 13 is here my friends invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al132011.ren Allanjeffs 23:13, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Thirteen
Official word from NHC. Forecast to peak at approx. 50 kts before landfall in Louisiana. --HurricaneMaker99 00:07, September 2, 2011 (UTC)


 *  The following post was formerly under the subheading  =Tropical Depression 13
 * And TD 13 heads for Lousisana. 99.58.60.158 00:18, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Merged subsection since I already made one for TD 13, and the one 99 made was in the wrong place. Sorry, 99 :/ --HurricaneMaker99 00:31, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * Um, the NHC has kept the path open pretty wide for this thing. HM99, this thing could end up everywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Galveston. There is no direct certainty to this storm's path, which is why TS warnings are up for the entire coast of Louisiana and even Mississippi. This storm is dangerous because there's just no telling how strong it will get, nor where it will go. Keep your eyes out for this storm. Ryan1000 00:55, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * This would be a good time to remind everyone to Beware The First Storm Of September ! ! ! -- SkyFury 03:22, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I don't want an Allison out of this, but due to it's erratic, slow movement, this could get ugly when it approaches the coastline. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 04:59, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Lee
It's here! 35 kts, 1003 mbar per the 1pm (CDT) interim advisory. --HurricaneMaker99 17:36, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The models basically just camp this thing right over us down here on the Gulf Coast for five days. Ugh, this could really suck. Some forecasts are calling for up to 20 inches of rain. The last thing we need down here is another Danny. I may be canoeing to class on Tuesday. -- SkyFury 20:35, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

The fact Lee is moving slowly may increase the chance for signifigant flash flooding, but it has a long way to go to reach an Allison-like flood. This could be the biggest flood disaster to hit this area since Juan in 1985. This thing is a long ways from it's landfall but Lee is so big it's upper rainbands are already affecting the big easy. If it moves as slow as the forecast is indicating, this storm could be very bad for the folks down in New Orleans, or for *gulp* you Eric? Ryan1000 22:12, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * And that stupid high pressure over Texas is causing trouble for Louisiana whom will have to deal with Allison 2.0. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:18, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * ... and some of the landlocked states.10L.NONAME 23:56, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * I have a feeling that Lee will become a re-Danny or re-Allison (1989 and 2001) if he stalls over the Gulf Coast. Hurricane Andrew (444) 00:46, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * What? Danny wasn't used during 1989... Juan was in 1985, and when it stalled by Louisiana it caused 2.8 billion in damage due to flooding and winds. If this thing puls a Juan or an Allison, things could get ugly. This storm is moving rather slowly through the gulf, but we'll have to wait and see what it will do. Ryan1000 05:24, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * 50mph winds now. I wouldn't be surprised if this storm causes considerable flooding damage in Louisiana..it's not every day that 25 inches of rain is expected to fall on a large portion of a state...(if not more when it starts weakening) Yqt1001 06:51, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Almost making landfall. And Ryan, you kinda misunderstood my post. I actually meant: "I have a feeling Lee will become a re-Danny (the 1997 one) or a re-Allison (either the 1989 or 2001 incarnation).
 * Hurricane Andrew (444) 11:50, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph winds. Yqt1001 14:47, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Near landfall.10L.NONAME 14:50, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, I thought you meant 1989 and 2001 respectively. Anyways, I don't think there was too much uncertainty about this thing's track by NHC as it aproached Louisiana. It could have done so many things, but it almost perfectly followed the NHC forecast as it went. It pretty much made landfall now, but the big threat from this one is the inland flooding threat, and there is still uncertainty about where it will go further down the road. This storm is far from over, and when NHC is done with this thing the HPC will take over for them. Ryan1000 16:44, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Near landfall.10L.NONAME 14:50, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ah, I thought you meant 1989 and 2001 respectively. Anyways, I don't think there was too much uncertainty about this thing's track by NHC as it aproached Louisiana. It could have done so many things, but it almost perfectly followed the NHC forecast as it went. It pretty much made landfall now, but the big threat from this one is the inland flooding threat, and there is still uncertainty about where it will go further down the road. This storm is far from over, and when NHC is done with this thing the HPC will take over for them. Ryan1000 16:44, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

Winds are down to 45 kts (50 mph), but the pressure is down to 988 mbar. Huh. --HurricaneMaker99 00:26, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2011 is kicking out some huge storms now I guess. I'm just going to remove the theory that winds must catch up to pressure eventually for this year starting right now. Yqt1001 00:32, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Lee will likely dissipate later today or Monday, but the threat won't be over by that time. It still needs to be watched as inland flooding could be severe from this minor storm. Ryan1000 04:03, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Made landfall. Yqt1001 14:24, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Finally.10L.NONAME 15:17, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * Lee is gaining some central storms as it heads for Livonia, LA. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 15:58, September 4, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Lee
Down to a TD. Last advisory issued from the NHC, though it's still technically a tropical cyclone so I dunno what in the world is going on. Yqt1001 02:46, September 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * This is the first time i see a depression with 990mb pressure Allanjeffs 02:51, September 5, 2011 (UTC)


 * This is the first time I have seen that a depression having that low pressure since early 2011 in NIO (984.) Anyways, last advisory issued by NHC. 10L.NONAME 03:25, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now the HPC will take over for them, because even though it's gone from NHC, it will still cause inland floding, some of which could be catastrophic. Ryan1000 04:41, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I just drove through what's left of Lee's rain bands in north Georgia and central Alabama and let me tell you, it was exhilarating. In southern AL, there was crazy thick overcast. The edge of it extended out as far as I could see in either direction. It almost looked like it was swirling around us. And with me arriving at sunset, it was pretty surreal. -- SkyFury 04:49, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Like the Gulf storm above, models show development for this wave near Bermuda (of course). Judging from the activity near Bermuda this year, this will develop into a storm, but max out at 50mph. Yqt1001 01:15, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">GFS has this, but it shouldn't survive too long. 10L.NONAME 01:18, August 31, 2011 (UTC)


 * Yeah I saw it on Wundermap but I didn't suspect it to be an AOI right now...anyways, predictions from me take it to a 50 mph tropical storm. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 01:23, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * I'm not sure what to make of this one. Both major global models develop it. It almost looks like a re-Cindy. They develop it soon too, the GFS in just 72 hours. -- SkyFury 02:09, August 31, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't trust what is said now, whether or not it's on NHC. Jose had a near 0% chance of developing when it was on the TWO and the next thing you know it's a TS shooting out to sea. Anyhow, this could become Lee if the Caribbean disturbance doesn't do so in a few days. Ryan1000 04:40, August 31, 2011 (UTC)

10% now. Yqt1001 12:28, September 1, 2011 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
At 50%. Hurricane Andrew (444) 17:06, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Looks like we'll see Maria(or Lee if the other disturbance doesn't make it before this one), out of this storm. It will likely not be affecting anyone as it shoots out to sea. Ryan1000 19:01, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * That part of the Atlantic has been really active this year for some reason, I don't know what it is. -- SkyFury 21:03, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * I am guessing that there is a very northerly jetstream and not as much shear as usual. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:52, September 1, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 40%, but producing TS winds. --HurricaneMaker99 00:12, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

Up to 60 percent. Maybe we'll have Lee with the 0900 UTC advisory.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM. --88.102.101.245 06:51, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">In that case, the GOM disturbance might be Maria instead. This storm will be heading seaward, but it will contribute one more TS to the activity. Maria became named at this time in 2005, for the record, but unlike 2005, most of the storms this year were weak, short-lived, or stayed at sea. Irene was the only bad storm thus far this year, and I hope it's the only one too. Ryan1000 15:20, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Back to 40%10L.NONAME 19:55, September 2, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It is painful how close this was to being Lee/Maria. If those thunderstorms had migrated just slightly closer to the center, NHC would've called it. Now it doesn't look like it's going to happen. Wind shear is increasing and the water's getting colder. 94L missed its chance. Crap. It looked so good too. I'm not convinced it wasn't a tropical storm anyway, if briefly. Ryan, yeah TD13/Lee and 94L were threatening to develop right at the same time. -- SkyFury 20:04, September 2, 2011 (UTC)
 * And all the way down to 10%. So long, 94L, see you in a couple weeks! --HurricaneMaker99 00:26, September 3, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's becoming extratropical.10L.NONAME 00:36, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

It's gone, but here is a good analysis to why we are seeing so many storms here and why we aren't seeing many in the Caribbean and what is up ahead. Yqt1001 17:51, September 3, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: South of Cape Verde
It's starting to look pretty decent for development. Not much model support but it should be on the TWO later. Yqt1001 18:44, September 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * I second that now the Atlantic is much more active than the Eastern Pacific. Allanjeffs 23:01, September 4, 2011 (UTC)


 * 20% now. Yqt1001 13:58, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Rapidly up to 60%. May see a Maria out of this and Nate in the southern Gulf. 72.244.73.202 18:18, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Rapidly up to 60%. May see a Maria out of this and Nate in the southern Gulf. 72.244.73.202 18:18, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

95L.INVEST
Invested apparently Yqt1001 14:13, September 5, 2011 (UTC
 * Oh wow, 60%! Yqt1001 17:40, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * This will also have to face the shear that exists in the Mid-Atlantic like Katia did. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:16, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hope it will be a future fish; if anything, I hope it gets caught up in Katia's outflow and being an epic fail. We were on a hot streak with them with Cindy, Franklin, Gert, and Jose, and if (Nate) can become one too, that would be just great. We don't want any more bad storms; Irene was more than enough. Ryan1000 02:10, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * This one looks good to me, but the models look lost. None of them really initialize it well. The GFS eventually does something with it in about three days, taking it out near the Bahamas as a tropical storm, but the other models look like they're struggling to even see it. We'll have to see if they get their act together in later runs, but conditions seem favorable for development. Katia's outflow could create some shear problems in the near term, but after Katia moves out, I think conditions will become more conducive. However, the GFS develops a break in the ridge later in the period and starts to take it more to the north. Therefore, this thing, whatever it becomes, shouldn't threaten land. -- SkyFury 05:33, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

90%, TD14 is coming. Yqt1001 18:11, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">"SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT 725 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY." I expect them to initiate advisories on TD14 at the 5pm forecast period. The models still don't have a real good handle on this. The GFS has the most plausible solution, taking it up towards Bermuda as a strengthening tropical storm. All the models, if they develop it at all, are slow to strengthen it. -- SkyFury 18:36, September 6, 2011 (UTC) 14 TD of the season forms invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al142011.ren Allanjeffs 20:33, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 14
Confirmed by the NHC at 5pm. 35mph, 1008mb. Expected to follow an early Irene path before curving out to sea, but we'll see how true that is. Probably will become Maria in the next day or so, meaning that the first week of September alone will have 2 named storms. If we keep up this pace we will have 20 storms by the end of September and October will only need to make 2 storms to get Alpha. Wow, this year is crazy. Oh and this has a H (hurricane) in it's forecast! Yqt1001 20:40, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">The NHC takes it close...too close... to the lesser antillies. Wrong way, Maria. Given the fact it will be coming right into Katia and the other AOI, this thing needs to develop fast until it gets sheared to shreds, hopefully. Ryan1000 20:54, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan, Maria-to-be is well south of where Katia travelled and she hangs back a lot. Worse, she's almost on the same track as Irene was. Unless it does not change the direction a little bit more to the south what would bad at all this is definitely another 'cane to be aware of if you're living somewhere between Florida and Newfoundland, including the Bahamas and Bermuda. Now if goes more to the south, Maria could pull a Dean what won't be good either. --88.102.101.245 21:39, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * While pre-Maria may be following Katia's footsteps, Maria is more southerly. Katia traveled straight into 2 areas of 25-30 kt wind shear, while Maria will be heading for at max 20 kt wind shear. But true, she'll have to develop, FAST. Tropical depressions tend to not survive 20 kt wind shear. However, my current forecast (not released yet) is a bit stronger and aggresive then the NHC. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:28, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 88, this depression will run into two big problems as it approaches the lesser antillies. One is the AOI behind Katia which will create some shear over this thing as it catches up to it. The second thing is Katia's outflow, which will sucker-punch this thing dead if it gets too close. Fiona followed Earl last year and it just died out from that. Katia's outflow will be right in front of this thing when it reaches the lesser antillies, so itcould actually weaken and roll into Hispaniola and Cuba, dying from land interaction instead of strengthening and hitting the U.S. We don't need another Irene anyways. This thing needs to follow Katia out to sea. Ryan1000 02:41, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but first, the AOI isn't going to be a problem for TD14. Second, Katia will be lifting out rapidly to the northeast, so it's shear influence on the central Atlantic will be diminishing. It may be mostly gone by the time TD14 gets far enough west to be sheared. At best, it'll stall development somewhat. Fiona was much closer to Earl last year and Earl was a Cat. 4. Hell they were so close, we were talking about whether there might be some Fujiwara interaction, a discussion that proved mute when Earl sheared Fiona into oblivion. Weakening Cat. 2 Katia is 2,000 miles from TD14. Big difference. To be honest with you, I'm not sure why the models are so unenthusiastic. Stable air and residual 10-20 kt shear may hinder intensification, but I expect conditions to be greatly improved by the time it reaches the Leeward Islands. I would not be surprised at all to be talking about Hurricane Maria in 5-7 days. However, I do think it will follow Katia out to sea, but we'll see. The Leeward Islands definately need to stay tuned though. -- SkyFury 03:42, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

The thing about this storm is most of the models take it following Katia anyways. Only 2 of the reliable models take this storm into the leewards over the next 5 days, Eric. GFS takes this thing striking some of the upper islands, while GFDL takes it into the Virgin Islands and PR in the long run. Every other model has this thing following Katia, perhaps affecting Bermuda as it turns out to sea. Ryan1000 04:26, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">HWRF also takes it pretty close to the Leewards. I did say I thought it would follow Katia, didn't I? The ECMWF still keeps it a depression and takes it into the Caribbean, killing it on the mountains of Hispaniola. The latest run of the GFS has actually shifted south with the latest run, giving creadence to the NHC forecast and the threat to the Leeward Islands. However, it's possible that the southward shift is due to the GFS keeping it weaker for longer. I still don't understand why the models are so unenthusiastic with this one. Wind shear has actually decreased out ahead of it, 5-10 kts all the way to 55W when the outflow Katia kicks in. And that too should decrease as Katia recurves into the north Atlantic and should be greatly diminished by the time TD14 gets there. I really don't see anything keeping this from strengthening. It's got a little bit of a stable environment ahead of it and the circulation's still getting it's act together, so I don't think it will rapidly intensify, but I don't see why it shouldn't steadily intensify through the forecast period. -- SkyFury 07:08, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">It seems we have Maria now AL, 14, 2011090712, 128N, 410W, 35, 1005, TS Allanjeffs 13:01, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Maria
As of right now 50mph, 1003mb. Yqt1001 19:10, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Most of the models take Maria close to, or onto, the leeward islands, but the faster it strengthens, the more likely it will turn out to sea. I hope it does pull a Katia for all intents and purposes, because the shear isn't as strong as I earlier anticipated, but it's still there a little. That being said, we could have a hurricane when it nears the lesser antillies. Stay tuned. Ryan1000 19:54, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Well hello, Maria! I still don't have a clue why the models are so unimpressed with this thing. The conditions seem favorable; hell, it jumped from 30 knots to 45 in just six hours, and the cloud pattern looks like it's getting better organized. I see no reason why Maria shouldn't strengthen, but the GFDL is the only model that really does anything with it. I don't know why that is. -- SkyFury 20:06, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

I hope this thing does become a fishie, but not only do we have Maria, Katia, and 96L(Nate), but also newly-formed Kulap in WPac. The tropics are going donkers now, and we have tons of possible new storms coming in our future. Ryan1000 20:18, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Dang Maria has a really small wind field. And yes 96L is now Nate, the tropics is going donkers/bonkers. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:12, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Maria seems it doesn't want to become a hurricane until the Caribbean Islands are reached. Hurricane Owen OWEN2011


 * Maria is pulling a Gaston and going to fast. It's LLC is getting pulled quite a bit from the CoC and she is weakening...she is slowing down though, should pull back together and become the 3rd or 4th hurricane of the year sometime in her life. Yqt1001 19:12, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Expected to be a TD at landfall in the Lesser Antilles, however they show a near hurricane TS in 5 days and quite a bit more south of the 2pm est advisory. Yqt1001 21:03, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I can't find a Coc in satellite imagery. I'm not even sure if Maria is even a tropical system right now. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:39, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's much less organized than I thought it would be by now. This storm is moving so fast, it might just breeze through the lessers and not do anything signifigant whatsoever. Ryan1000 22:54, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * I love how the recon plane conveniently had comm problems that prevented it from determining whether Maria still existed. Maria must be running some kind of conspiracy lol! Well the LLCC sure sucks if it exists at all, but there's no shortage of deep convection or cold cloud tops, so I'll give Maria the benefit of the doubt, but it won't take much to disrupt that tenuous circulation. Maria's got some work to do if it wants to be on the brink of hurricane strength by the time it reaches the Bahamas. That said, if it holds together, the US better pay attention, becuase it'll be awfully close to the east coast by then. -- SkyFury 07:34, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * CoC is back.10Q.INVEST 20:31, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * The convection burst is still pretty amazing condsidering Maria was so close to being non-exsistant (imo it was dead for a while back there). CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:48, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maria, in contrast to Nate, is looking a lot better. GFS runs this right over Bermuda as a pretty sizable hurricane. I personally don't think it'll go that far east. It'll probably follow Katia right out to sea. Boy, these persistant, deep troughs have really saved our ass over the past couple of years. We just keep getting lucky. I get the feeling that one of these days, that luck will run out. -- SkyFury 03:42, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Our luck did run out with Irene earlier this year, unless you're waiting for an(official) U.S. MH landfall. Maria could still cause flooding in the Lesser Antillies, but given the area was already damaged by Irene, Maria might be an afterthought compared to her. It might cause a rather lousy weekend for the folks in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico but overall flood damage should be limited due to it's quick movement. Afterwards, I would see her following Katia out to sea, but it could still cause some rough surf on the east coast from high waves. Ryan1000 03:51, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

As bad as Irene was, it could've very easily been exponentially worse. Maybe you're right. Maybe Irene was The One. 46 deaths and $7 billion in damage is pretty devastating. It's definately a stretch to say we dodged a bullet, but I don't think many people realize just how lucky we got with that storm. It had all the makings of something out of It Could Happen Tomorrow. But instead of Katrina, we got Floyd. What the hell happened to Maria? Last night, it looked like it had finally gotten its act together, the shear was going to decrease and we were possibly looking at a hurricane down the road. Now it's on the doorstep of death...again? WTF? That's been the story of this entire season. Pissy storms that never realize their potential. We've had 14 named storms for crying out loud, but all but two have been shortlived, pissand storms. At least a few had seemingly favorable conditions but failed to intensify. This really has been unbelievable. Mysterious shear, dry air coming from nowhere, or even weakening for no apparent reason at all. To me, the complete and utter power outage has been as much or more of a story this season as the number of named storms. We could easily have half the number of storms we've got now. -- SkyFury 17:09, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * It looks like there is a wall blocking Maria in the satellite imagery. And look here, can you spot the COC? CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:22, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Maria is still too far away to show up on San Juan radar. The center, such as it is, is still nealy 300 miles away. Even the long range radar doesn't see any further than 150 miles on a good day. -- SkyFury 23:21, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Just because Irene wasn't as bad as it could've been doesn't mean we "dodge the bullet". Although it could've been worse, 10 billion in damage and 55 deaths is still a tremendous ammount of damage and rather high death toll for the U.S. It's certainly one of the top 15 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history, and Vermont is practically underwater from the massive flooding caused by Irene. It was worse than even the great hurricane of 1938 in some places. Was Irene the one hurricane we were fearing all season long? Will we have a storm more destructive than Irene this year? We'll have to wait and see. Although Maria passed over the northern Lesser Antillies last night, the majority of the convection was away from the circulation, so overall damage was probrably light, i'm assuming. Nate made landfall with 60 mph winds, so no hurricane will come out of him. It also should be noted this is what the NHC said in their forecast discussion:

ALTHOUGH SHEARED...FINALLY MARIA LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE... About time. Ryan1000 14:39, September 11, 2011 (UTC)


 * The models GDFL and HWRF really like this, they have this at Cat. 5 strength after leaving the Leeward Islands.10Q.INVEST 19:26, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Bah those models have blown up every storm this year. Hurricane hunters found 60mph winds in Maria though, somehow the pressure at 1007mb? They must have the wrong center. (exact same thing happened with Irene in the same location actually, HH were following a weak center with 1007mb pressure then they found the real center with a pressure of 999mb) Yqt1001 19:31, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

Where is everyone? Has this year bored everyone out of their minds? Anyways Maria has been sheared apart by a ULL just to it's north and is now 50mph and no longer expected to become a hurricane. Yqt1001 21:10, September 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Guess so... We have gone rather silent since Irene damage-wise. I hope we will have no other bad storms, but we still have a good chance of that in the rest of September or even October and November. Although we have had a lot of epic fails in this season, we remain under threat until it's over. The ACE sucks this year, but it was a bad season still with Irene. Ryan1000 22:40, September 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">sorry to tell you Ryan but in Ace we are ok we have 68.5 even compare to the Epacific that is very below normal to this date it have 54.3 so I think that the atlantic is ok but i need to say its true we are bad by individual systemAllanjeffs 03:05, September 13, 2011 (UTC)

Allan, that's what I go by. The ACE/storm of 2005 was the same as it was last year, but because we had so many storms that year, the ACE was still the highest ever. 1950, by contrast, had an ACE of 243 out of only 13 storms, an ACE/storm of 18.7. This year's EPac season has an ACE of 54.3 as a whole, but out of only 7 storms, that's an ACE/storm of 7.7. This year's AHS has an ACE of 68.5 thus far, but out of 14 storms, that's just pathetic. The ACE/storm thus far is only 4.75 in NAtl. I do not base activity off of overall ACE, I base it off of ACE/storm. Comparing the ACE/storm of 1950 to 2005, it's 18.7 vs 8.6. If 1950 had 28 named storms like 2005 did, it would have an overall ACE of 523.3. That's a big difference. Ryan1000 04:06, September 13, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Nobody's here because Maria is failing miserably (what else is new) and the rest of the Atlantic is dead. Ryan, with regards to Irene, I did say "It's definately a stretch to say we dodged a bullet." That's word for word what I said. I copied and pasted that. But as bad as it was, and it was really bad, it could've easily been absolutely catastrophic. I shudder to think what would've happened had Irene hit NC as a Cat 3 and NYC as a Cat 2. It really was setting up to be an absolute worst case scenario right out of It Could Happen Tomorrow. It even hit at the peak of the astronomical high tide. It made landfall on Coney Island as a tropical storm and it still brought an eight foot storm surge to Long Beach, NY. ''Eight feet! From a tropical storm!! ''Are you kidding me? Imagine what it would've done as a Cat. 2. It would've been Hurricane Ike in NYC. Huge swaths of the Long Island coast would've been laid to waste. NYC would've been underwater, probably shut down for a week or more. I don't think people realize just how close we came to a historic catastrophe. But Irene weakened much faster than expected thanks to a poor recovery from an eyewall replacement cycle, some dry air infiltration, and unusually slow movement over eastern NC, thus sparing at least the coastline. Note that Irene is the far more interesting topic of discussion here. Maria is turning into yet another disappointment. -- SkyFury 07:47, September 13, 2011 (UTC)

Eric, I am aware Irene could have been so much worse, but even though we got the best-case scenario out of Irene and suffered the least ammount of damage possible, we still took a beating, a 7(10 if you count the Caribbean) billion-dollar one at that. I know it looked like it was going to be the It Could Happen Tomorrow episode of the NYC hurricane which came out in January 2006 on TWC, but all that matters is that didn't happen, and we're all thankful we swallowed the bitter pill that could have been a killer toxin. Just because Irene wasn't as bad as it could've been doesn't mean she wasn't bad overall though, and that is all it takes for this season to be memorable for a long time to come. Although we might not get so lucky in the future, we certainly don't want any more storms with 10 billion damage figures either. Ryan1000 20:02, September 13, 2011 (UTC)


 * After doing some research I have determined that the 5 most active seasons on record (2005, 1995, 1887 and 2010) have all experienced a "storms drought" around now. 2005 only had Ophelia active between September 10th and September 17th. 1995 only had Marylin active between September 13th and September 17th. 1887 didn't even have a storm active between September 22nd and October 6th. 2010 only had Nicole active (which could be debatable be a waste of a name like Jose a few weeks ago) between September 26th and October 6th. Also in 2005, 1995 and 2010 at least half of the retired names formed after the "storms drought" in mid-late September (even if you count Emily of 2005). Now of course this is a normal pattern, being that most storms late in the season form in the Caribbean however this shows htat the season is not done being deadly yet. 1887 doesn't count because the amount of damage known is too limited to know what names would've been retired. 1887 only had 2 major hurricanes, both of which formed before the drought. 2010 had all the storms after the drought become hurricanes. All of the seasons have one very clear thing in common with each other though, more major hurricanes formed before the drought then after the drought (well 1995 had Marylin become a major hurricane during the drought). Not saying anything that any of this will happen in 2011, but I was just curious to see if this storms drought during the peak occurred before. Yqt1001 01:14, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * We may or may not have an active late season... 2004 had 4 names kicked off the list, but not one of them was after Jeanne, which hit in late September. Every year from 2005 until now(except 2006 and 2009) has featured a retired name in October or November. 2001 had 4 hurricanes when September ended and the season ended with 9. Then again, 2007 also had 4 hurricanes when September ended and finished with only 6(Karen was still believed to have been a strong tropical storm by then, but was upgraded in post-season), so although this season is not over, we can't be certain the latter part of 2011 will be bad. We'll just have to wait and see. Ryan1000 10:49, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * Well whatever happens, Maria is getting her act together and is now a 60mph storm again. Predicted to get to 70mph now... Yqt1001 12:03, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * About half the models make Maria a hurricane over the next few days, but she still has to deal with Katia's outflow, and NHC is on the conservative side. She has been moving rather slowly over the last few days, but with little change in intensity. We're past the peak of hurricane season, so from here on out(except briefly rising around October 19), things just go downhill in the tropics. Ryan1000 19:54, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * We'll see. Recon found 85mph flight level winds so if Maria can steadily organize herself over the next day or so we could see a hurricane. Yqt1001 22:47, September 14, 2011 (UTC)

And with that, NHC has upgraded Maria to 65mph. Hurricane watch issued for Bermuda. We'll have to wait until 11pm to see what the NHC says about recon finding stronger winds than expected. Yqt1001 00:16, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Finally! Bout damn time. Surfers, grab your boards! All hope is not lost! Lol! Ryan, you mean Maria still has to go through Katia's SST wake. Katia's outflow is long gone because Katia is long gone. I believe the increased shear in the forecast is from an upper level low. Anyway, I don't have a lot to add to the previous discussion other than the models develop virtually nothing over the next week. I know that thing off Africa has popped up on the TWO but none of the model develop it anymore, not even the GFS which liked it this time yesterday. The way I see it, we may be lucky to get even one storm before next weekend (September 24) or have just one storm over the next two weeks. A developing La Nina would seem to favor an active late season, but there's certainly no sign of it now. Given that this season has been such an underperformer ACE wise, I'd be inclined to err on the low side. If we do reach the 20 storm mark, it'll probably be thanks to more weak, pissand storms. Late season is normally the time for those, notwithstanding the fact that that's pretty much been our entire season to this point, with just a couple of exceptions. I really can't see us all of a sudden breaking trend and rattling off long-lived hurricanes right and left. We may get a western Caribbean storm that finds its way into the Gulf and does something dangerous, but other than that, I just don't see it happening. I'm certainly not saying the season's over, but I just don't think our lackluster ACE is going to improve much. We'll see. -- SkyFury 02:11, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Maria now a hurricane finally AL, 14, 2011091518,, BEST, 0, 338N, 666W, 65, 987, HUAllanjeffs 18:53, September 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * We'll have to see what NHC says. I know they are the pickiest when upgrading a TS to a hurricane, as shown with Katia once as ATCF didn't even downgrade Katia the third time that it was a TS before it's peak. Anyways 70mph is the 3rd strongest storm this year (tied with Nate) so at least we are starting to see an upward trend in ACE's now because of the modestly stronger storms. Also Maria has made her closest approach to Bermuda. Yqt1001 19:06, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * But if we get two or three more short-lived POS storms in the rest of September, October, or November, then our ACE/storm goes down the drain again. Only Katia and Irene have become major hurricanes at this point in this season. As of now, this year is reminding me of 2007 in many ways, a bunch of shitty storms with one or two exeptions. This thing has lived unusually long for a TS anyways. Ryan1000 20:21, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yeah Maria tied Fay for longest living (that I know of) TS at the 2pm update, if Maria doesn't become a hurricane ever or at 5pm she will beat Fay. We'll see what happens at 5pm though. Yqt1001 20:43, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

Hurricane Maria
...MARIA BECOMES THE THIRD HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... 75mph winds and 987mb pressure. Going 36mph northward pretty fast considering she has steadily intensified. Also hurricane watches issued for Newfoundland. Yqt1001 20:45, September 15, 2011 (UTC)


 * I've never saw it coming. 10Q.INVEST 23:20, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Yay! She finally did it! Look out Newfoundland! Yeah, I remember a while back seeing the models take it right over Newfoundland but I can't say I saw this coming. This just got interesting all of a sudden. -- SkyFury 23:46, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * 80mph winds at 11pm. Yqt1001 02:49, September 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * I didn't think it would take Maria 10 days to become a hurricane, but, well, it finally became one now. Newfoundland may have to deal with some impacts but it's much smaller than Hurricane Igor was when it hit them at about this time last year, not to mention Maria has a forward movement of 43 mph, much faster than Igor had when it was hitting them. It'll be in and out in 2-3 hours. Still, this thing bears watching for the folks up there. Stay tuned. Yqt, one TS of 1913 went for 17 days(August 26 to September 12) without becoming a hurricane(!!). That storm still remains the longest-lived storm in recorded history that did NOT become a hurricane, and the record for longest time for a storm to reach hurricane strength still stands with Arlene of 1987. Ryan1000 04:27, September 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Correction: Dennis of 1984 holds the record for longest time to reach hurricane strength at 14 days. Arlene took 11. The best track for Arlene is bizarre, having a really long intial depression stage. They don't have the winds even reaching 20 knots until day three. I seriously doubt it was a tropical cyclone until at least that point. Even if you count the entire depression stage, Arlene would only match Dennis's record. Dennis is the true record holder in my book. Kudos on the 1913 pull though, that was a good one. Given the fact that it was in 1913, it's possible it did reach hurricane strength but if it did, it probably didn't stay there long. -- SkyFury 06:18, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

Maria made landfall with winds at 75mph, should be extratropical tonight. Yqt1001 19:06, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Eric, I exclude Dennis of 1981(correction yearwise) because it was a non-tropical remnant low for 3 of those days. What I meant was the longest time it took for a storm to reach hurricane strength while still a tropical cyclone. If it degenerates into a remnant low for part(or most) of the time, it doesn't count in my book. Arlene took 14.25 days to become a hurricane since it formed on August 8 and reached it on the 22nd, which yes is still the record. See this for verification. Other storms that took a long time to become hurricanes include Josephine of 1990 at 13.75 days, and Felix of 1989 and Irene of 2005, both at about 13 days. Anyways, Maria's shooting at more than 50 mph, so it'll be in and out of Newfoundland like lightning. Ryan1000 20:04, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Yikes, that was a bad mistake. And I wrote that right after I got off the 1981 Unisys page *facepalm*. That aside, Dennis is usually cited as holding this record by news media and even the NHC (I believe this came up with Hurricane Lisa in 2004). Just like you believe the remnant stage shouldn't count, I don't believe Arlene was a tropical cyclone until August 10. Do you see some of those wind speeds? 10 knots, are you kidding me? That's not a tropical cyclone, that's a low pressure swirl completely devoid of deep convection. I've never seen even a remnant low have wind speeds that low. Therefore, I believe the actual gap was 12 days on the nose, not 14. -- SkyFury 02:27, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Well, the best track states that Arlene formed by then, but in my book, Dennis was technically active from August 7-13 and August 16-22. The 3-day gap is what keeps him from that kind of record, IMO. Anyways, Maria wasn't that bad, so i'd put a 5% chance of retirement because it did affect the lessers and Newfoundland, but not severely. If Arlene is excluded until it did reach, say 25 knots and Dennis while it was a tropical wave, then Josephine of 1990 holds the record at 13.75 days. Ryan1000 13:55, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Post-tropical Cyclone Maria
Good night, Maria! Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:23, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

The 3rd storm that is not an epic fail.10Q.INVEST 04:59, September 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * For me Lee was not an epic fail Allanjeffs 06:27, September 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Currently there are no death or damage reports, but it probrably wasn't an Igor for Newfoundland. Ryan1000 14:19, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Bay of Campeche
Some models are picking this up. 10L.NONAME 18:59, September 4, 2011 (UTC
 * Technically this doesn't exist yet. This will be a piece of energy off of Lee that will come down and regenerate. Yqt1001 20:10, September 4, 2011 (UTC)
 * The said piece of energy has now split off and is going south to the BoC. Yqt1001 14:14, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * GFS predicts this will hit Florida.10L.NONAME 15:12, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not anymore it doesn't. Stalls it right off the Mexican coast until it dies, which seems implausible to say the least. The ECMWF, however, does take it toward the eastern Gulf. The GFS and ECMWF both develop this, so it'll be interesting to see what happens. GFS forms it in about three days. -- SkyFury 05:45, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 20% now. Allanjeffs 12:29, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

30%, HHs will investigate this storm tomorrow. Yqt1001 18:12, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This one will probably be invested soon. Most of the models develop this and most of them essentially trap it in the Bay of Campeche, not moving it much at all. Very odd. -- SkyFury 18:38, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

This might be a re-Arlene, or if it keeps on stalling, it might be a re-Edouard(1984), and not signifigantly affect land at all, despite it's proxmitity to it. Ryan1000 20:56, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

96L.INVEST
And it's been invested (finally). Yqt1001 18:55, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * AMSRE 85GHzH pass identifying only sparse thunderstorm activity. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:48, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * 40% now. Allanjeffs 23:55, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now 40%. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:56, September 6, 2011 (UTC)
 * Props to Ryan on the Edouard reference. And I thought I was the only history guy around here ;). The majority of the models really do predict this thing to move very little during its lifetime. Some eventually drift it up toward the US Gulf Coast, some eventually drift it into Mexico. Some don't even take it anywhere at all, just spinning it in place until it dies. To be honest with you, I'm not sure what to make of that other than it could be very bad for those oil rigs down there. -- SkyFury 03:17, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70%. TD15 is coming, already. Yqt1001 19:11, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 70%. TD15 is coming, already. Yqt1001 19:11, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

Hmm... "Hurricane Hunters just found an large area of westerly winds in the Gulf with flight level winds at 1000 feet of 58 mph and SFMR winds of 50 mph. This is likely to be Tropical Storm Nate at 5pm, though I'd like to see a vortex report from the plane before upgrading it, if I were working the NHC desk. Trivia question: when was the last time two storms got named on the same day? I don't know the answer, but 2005 would be a good year to look. -Jeff Masters" Looks like we'll see a jump from open wave to 50mph again! Also looks really likely we will skip TD15 and just have Nate. Wow this year is insane. Yqt1001 19:37, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Today is the 6th year anniversary of the naming of Ophelia in 2005. If this becomes Nate, we will only be one storm behind 2005. However, Philippe, 2005's 16th storm, didn't come until September 17. If we can get this year's Philippe before that date, we will already be jumping ahead of 2005's pace. The thing is most of this year's storms have been short-lived and weak; only 2 hurricanes thus far, out of 14 named storms(assuming this is Nate). That's only one 'cane for every 7 storms, and the ACE/storm is only a tad over 4. This year just doesn't know when to stop. We will certainly catch up to at least last year, but I wouldn't be surprised if we get 2005-like numbers put up at this rate. Not ACEwise, just storm-wise. Ryan1000 20:08, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">We have now Nate my friends we are moving very quick on the list AL, 15, 2011090718,, BEST, 0, 202N, 925W, 40, 1004, TSAllanjeffs 20:43, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">Wow, that's amazing. Just gotta find that LLCC! But you're right, Yqt, this year has been insane. We've been only one storm behind 2005's pace for a while now. We're already ahead of 1995's pace and just this morning moved ahead of 1933's pace. This really is amazing. If we have a very reasonable six-storm September, three-storm October, and one-storm November - or similar combination - we will exhaust the list. In that case, a two-storm November (not uncommon) would bring us into Greek letters. We're already halfway to a six-storm September (assuming 96L becomes Nate) and we're barely a week into it. NHC's advisories and discussions are already starting to get that 2005 tone to them. "...And yet another tropical storm in the Atlantic..." -- SkyFury 20:51, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Nate
Just a header on the NHC site, no information yet. But it's close enough! Yqt1001 21:02, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * ...TROPICAL STORM NATE FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MEXICO... 45mph and 1004mb. Interesting to see that NHC is convinced this will go into Mexico even though it seems more logical to go to the Florida Panhandle...hmm. I guess they are professional though and I'm not even going to become a meteorologist, so what do I know? :P Yqt1001 21:04, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * Expect nate to become a hurricane Allanjeffs 21:05, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * (Edit conflict) Here we go.10L.NONAME 21:10, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Today is incredible! We've had Maria and Nate in one day. Also, Maria and Nate are the second earliest 13th and 14th storms ever, behind just 2005's Maria and Nate. Anywho, I expect this storm to cause something in Mexico... Hurricane Andrew (444) 21:18, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic really has gone bonkers. As I mentioned in my last post, if we have a very reasonable six-storm September (which we're already halfway to barely a week into it), three-storm October, and one-storm November, we will exhaust the list. In that case, a two-storm November (not uncommon) will bring us into Greek letters. Insane. -- SkyFury 21:26, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic really has gone bonkers. As I mentioned in my last post, if we have a very reasonable six-storm September (which we're already halfway to barely a week into it), three-storm October, and one-storm November, we will exhaust the list. In that case, a two-storm November (not uncommon) will bring us into Greek letters. Insane. -- SkyFury 21:26, September 7, 2011 (UTC)


 * If we see we have 14 name stoms in the NATL 14 in the Western Pacific and only 7 in EasternPacific incredibel Allanjeffs 21:30, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * What an insane day. If we managed to spit out Phillepe before September 17 (10 days out), we will attain the record! CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:43, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Wow, the tropics just don't know when to stop. We have just spat out storm after storm after storm rescently... We have had 10 named storms in the past month in the Atlantic basin. That averages to one storm every 3 days! Are you kidding me? We have hardly had such a frequency this long in the history of ever. In 2005 we had Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katrina, Lee, Maria, Nate, and Ophelia in this time, which is 8 storms. And Eric, we had a 7-storm October in 2005(counting the unnamed subtropical storm), so given the rate we are getting storms now, we could easily get that many as well. I don't know if we will have over 28 named storms, but given the fact we have seen 14 right now, seeing 17 or 18 storms by the end of 2011 would be absolutely ridiculous. What a season. Amazing. Ryan1000 22:28, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * 2011 vs. 2005:
 * 2005


 * June - 2 storms
 * July - 5 storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 majors
 * August - 5 storms, 2 hurricanes, 1 major
 * September - 5 storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 majors
 * October - 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 majors
 * November - 3 storms, 1 hurricane
 * December - 1 storm


 * 2011


 * June - 1 storm
 * July - 3 storms
 * August - 7 storms, 2 hurricanes, 2 majors
 * September - 3 storms and counting
 * While we may never get close to the hurricane record of 2005, there is no reason why our named storms count shouldn't exhaust the list. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 22:55, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * New advisory puts Nate stationary in the bay. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 00:14, September 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * Hello everyone! I am back from my long time off this WIKI. Anyway, Nate is expected to become
 * a hurricane going into the Tampico area. Hurricane Owen OWEN2011 01:33, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Hey Joshua! Nice to meet you. Anyways, yes, Nate is expected to be a hurricane. Not sure how he'll handle the shear though. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 02:12, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Given Nate's slow movement in the Gulf, it could become a very strong storm there; a non-major hurricane isn't out of the question. AndCobraStrike, Katia didn't become a major, let alone a 'cane, until September. Irene was the only "August hurricane" we had. However, given the high number of storms we have had now, yet the lack of strong ones, there is a good chance we will catch 2005, but not so much ACEwise, rather storm-wise. If we can just get Philippe before September 17th, we're ahead of them. Ryan1000 03:16, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Ryan, what happened in 2005 will never be duplicated, not in our lifetimes. The seven-storm October was what set 2005 apart, in my opinion. For the rate of activity to actually accelerate in October, after all that had already happened...*shakes head*. It really was like a West Pacific season, which peaks later than ours. We exhausted the list on October 17 with perhaps the greatest tropical cyclone that this basin has ever seen: a classic, WPac-style super typhoon...in the Caribbean. It took 2005 139 days to exhaust the list. The only other season that could have done so, 1933 (whose 21 storms was the basis for the 21 names on our lists today) did not do so until November 15. We will never see another October like that, possibly ever again. That said, given the rate of activity we're having right now, it would not surprise me to see us exhaust the list...again. -- SkyFury 05:57, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * 60mph..already? Thats rather impressive considering the dry air (it seems not to be inhaling) and the LLC is still exposed... Yqt1001 19:11, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * ATCF has 60kts or 70mph already. Someone tell Nate that stalling in the BOC isn't good! Yqt1001 19:27, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, we can't know 2011 won't rival the number of storms 2005 did. As I mentioned earlier, Philippe, the earliest 16th storm ever, didn't become named until September 17. If we can get this year's Philippe before then, we will already be ahead of 2005. Rita got named on September 18, the day after Philippe, the 18th storm of 1933 came one day before Stan, which did on October 2, the unnamed storm of 2005 developed on October 4, Tammy on the 5th, Vince on the 9th, and Wilma on the 17th. Furthermore, Alpha became named on the 22nd, Beta on the 27th, Gamma on November 18th, Delta on November 23, Epsilon on November 29, and Zeta on December 30. 2005 only had a 5-storm September, Eric. What if we get an 8-storm September this year, like we did last year or in 2007 and 2002? If that happens, we will be at Sean before October even begins. And by then we need 10 storms from October-December to tie 2005's all-time record. Ryan1000 19:56, September 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * 70mph now expect to be a cat 2Allanjeffs 21:00, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * A category 3 is still possible at landfall. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:42, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nate isn't moving as fast as Maria is, but it sure is losing itself. It has really been disorganized over the past few advisories. The tail end of that cold front is still shearing this storm, and the outflow of Katia is shearing Maria, which is moving at over 20 mph. Let's hope Nate stays weak; the stronger this thing gets, the worse it will be for Mexico. Ryan1000 22:51, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * Losing himself? Nate is looking better and better imo. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:56, September 8, 2011 (UTC)
 * It's looking better a bit, but the tail end of that cold front still has a hold over this thing a bit; that same front is also starting to recurve Katia. Nate is now stationary, but that will only make things worse. The longer it stays in the gulf, the more time it will have to strengthen. Karl last year got pretty nasty in the BOC, but it could have been stronger, because it was forecast to become a C4 as soon as it hit 120 mph. Had that happened, things could have gotten much worse. Anita of 1977 remains the strongest hurricane to form in the Gulf of Mexico, but it struck a rather unpopulated part of Mexico at full force. Why it became retired is beyond me, but let's hope Nate doesn't get that strong. Ryan1000 01:46, September 9, 2011 (UTC)

Ryan, Anita was retired because it obliterated several small fishing villages, left 25,000 people homeless and killed 11 people...and because Mexico asked for it to be retired, something we know they don't do often (see: Emily, Alex, Karl...). But you're right, Nate sure doesn't look the part of a 60 knot tropical storm on satellite. Unfortunately, we don't have the radar data that the NHC is looking at, but apparently its satellite appearance is deceiving. It's also unfortunate that it doesn't look like Texas is going to get any of this moisture. They sorely need it. As for 2005, Ryan, I'm not saying any of those things can't or won't happen, I'm just saying my gut feeling is that while this season will be very active, possibly one of the more active seasons on record, we won't approach the record totals of 2005. And I trust my gut. I am concerned that if this level of activity continues, our luck will eventually run out and an extremely destructive hurricane will affect the US. Maybe Irene was The One, but with a season this active, you usually don't just have one bad hurricane. I fear the US may not be done with the tropics this year. -- SkyFury 07:14, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Winds are down to 65mph for..I'm not sure, Nate is starting to look like a tiny Paula like hurricane. It's pretty sad to think that Nate's current/first peak of 70mph is the 3rd highest so far this year. And SkyFury, I must agree that the US will get hit by another storm this year. The pattern is going to favour a Charley/Dennis type storm in the middle of September and I think that will probably impact the US as atleast a hurricane, if not stronger. The pattern also seems favourable for a CV storm to hit the US, however it would probably have to go west to the spot where Irene formed and form there to actually hit the US. Yqt1001 12:51, September 9, 2011 (UTC)

Nate has fallen apart. 50mph winds and not really any convection left over the center. Looks like dry air finally got to him. Edouard all over again! Yqt1001 19:15, September 9, 2011 (UTC)


 * Now it actually looks like a subtropical storm (starting to). And aww, the forecast brings it west, less hope for Texan rain... CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 20:44, September 9, 2011 (UTC)
 * Eric, my point was something like, if Anita became retired, why did Hurricane Liza of the former year not? It obliterated entire communities in Baja from catastrophic flash floods and killed 600-950 people in Mexico yet wasn't retired. Anita only killed 11 people and was. Mexico has a very poor track record for retirement, but I won't argue about that here. Yqt and Eric, we don't know the U.S. will get hit with another monster storm this year(we certainly don't want that), but the conditions are in favor of it. NOAA rescently stated La Nina is back, so this season is far from over. Thus far, however, aside from Irene, we have gotten off better than we otherwise would have. This is because the Bermuda High is starting to dominate the central Atlantic and cold fronts are crossing the eastern seaboard more frequently, like it did at this time last year. However, because we are spitting out so many storms, I do agree chances are we will have another bad storm at some point this year; it just may not hit the U.S. though. Last year Mexico, Canada, and St. Lucia were the countries in question. In 2007 it was the Caribbean and Central America(particularly Nicaragua). Just because we have few U.S. landfalls does not mean we won't have bad hurricanes elsewhere. This season still bears very close watching. Just because we may not have a good chance of beating 2005 doesn't mean we won't do it. This season is ahead of the pace of every other season in history except 2005, and if we just get Philippe before September 17, we will be beating them. You can't ignore the facts. Although we may not get the same number of storms 2005 did, we have an extremely high chance of doing it at the pace we are right now, and although we may not have a 7-storm October or 8-storm September ect, you can't truly tell that won't happen. I know no one wants to have a bad season, but we have a very good chance of doing it(if we haven't already with Irene), and we still have a high chance for very destructive storms in the rest of September, October, and even in November. Ryan1000 00:39, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * the atlantic is producing stoms anywhere meanwhile the pacific is dead it might pull 3 storms more and that it si JMHOAllanjeffs 02:05, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * What the hell happened to Nate? Yikes. This think looked like it was primed to be another Karl but all of sudden it's just falling apart. They said something about dry air and there was a bunch neaby, but looking at the water vapor, it doesn't look like it's entraining any. The mass of dry air to the north has in fact weakened considerably. I don't know what's going on. As for everything else, for the record, none of the models really develop anything in the near future. September 17 is a week from tomorrow. We need two storms between now and then to out pace 2005. I just don't see that happening. I could see one, maybe. The GFS tries to develop something off Africa at the 100-hour mark, but it doesn't organize with any degree of haste. The ECMWF doesn't develop anything. NOGAPS, the Navy model, seems to, but not until at least 135 hours. So, for the middle of September in what has turned out to be a very active season, the near future sure looks awfully rosy, especially once Maria finally lifts out. -- SkyFury 03:23, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Whoa. I said earlier Nate was losing himself, he re-organized when I said that and now he's a POS again. Now he could pull an Arlene at best, not a Karl or anything else bad. We could see some impact, but other than Nate, Katia is racing seaward at 46 mph while Maria may cause some rainfall, but nothing exceptionally severe, across the Virgins and PR tomorrow and Sunday. We may get a brief period of silence in the tropics, but it won't happen forever. I still wouldn't be surprised if at least we exhaust the list, perhaps go to Alpha and Beta. But we still can't rule anything out. Ryan1000 03:34, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Update:Nate remains at 50 mph now. The thing about Nate is it has a very big circulation. Anything past 75 mph by now seems rather unlikely at this point, but watches are up just in case. I think it will be a re-Arlene, but hopefully flooding won't be extremely bad for the folks down in Mexico. Ryan1000 16:34, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Nate gaining a powerful right arm, intensifying to 60 mph. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 19:24, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * 65mph Allanjeffs 21:04, September 10, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now we're starting to get somewhere. It's still possible Nate becomes a hurricane before landfall. A hurricane warning is out for Mexico. -- SkyFury 23:27, September 10, 2011 (UTC)

Or so you thought. Nate weakened to 60 mph, and based on the sattelite imagery, it is really falling apart after making landfall in Mexico. So an Arlene is what happened after all, or hopefully not as severe. Ryan1000 13:37, September 11, 2011 (UTC)
 * Aaand Nate has disintegrated on landfall, like Don of earlier this year. Never got to hurricane strength, but Nate is the 3rd strongest TC of the ATL season. Kinda odd when you think about it.. Yqt1001 19:32, September 11, 2011 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Nate
Made landfall, pulled a Don. 11pm advisory will probably be its last. Yqt1001 00:27, September 12, 2011 (UTC)


 * I'm not suprised that happened. Nice tracking you, Nate. 10Q.INVEST 00:37, September 12, 2011 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nate
'''...NATE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... '''(11pm) Yqt1001 02:43, September 12, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This storm wasn't as promising to end the weak storm streak as I once thought. At one point Nate looked like it was going to be a major hurricane heading for South Padre and all it did was tap Mexico as a moderate tropical storm like Arlene did this June. Damage was probrably minimal, but it still did cause some impacts when it made landfall. Ryan1000 02:30, September 13, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Central Atlantic/West of Cape Verde Islands
This wave formed into a trough and has the possibility of dampening, mentioned on the TWO. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:40, September 4, 2011 (UTC) <p style="margin-left: 40px">Not yet actualy. The wind shear is taking a toll on it. 10L.NONAME 00:09, September 5, 2011 (UTC)
 * "AN EARLIER WIND OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 41041 SUGGESTED A LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N45W...EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS. " Probably won't form anyways though. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 18:23, September 5, 2011 (UTC)

10% now, NHC doesn't think this will develop until later if it does develop at all. Yqt1001 18:11, September 6, 2011 (UTC)


 * Not recognized as an AOI anymore, over Virgin Islands. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:49, September 7, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Off of Africa
Just came off of Africa. Seems to have a mid level spin to it so it might be on the TWO soon. Probably will be overshadowed by 95L in the end though. Yqt1001 16:56, September 6, 2011 (UTC)

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W TO THE SOUTH OF 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 32W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT NOT ALL THE PRECIPITATION IN THAT AREA IS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE 24W TROPICAL WAVE. CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 21:54, September 7, 2011 (UTC)
 * Characterized as "well defined" by the NHC CobraStrike (t)(b)(c) 23:58, September 8, 2011 (UTC)


 * now 10% Allanjeffs 18:12, September 10, 2011 (UTC)


 * Gone off the NHC. Anyway, see my new poll of the week! Hurricane Owen OWEN2011

AOI: South West of Cape Verde
Some models like this, I think it has a pretty decent chance. It looks nice too. Likely going to follow a path similar to Helene and Gordon of 2006. Yqt1001 19:18, September 14, 2011 (UTC)
 * On the TWO now. 10%. Yqt1001 00:19, September 15, 2011 (UTC)
 * Gone. Yqt1001 19:04, September 16, 2011 (UTC)
 * Isn't this the 20% area on the TWO? The global models now develop not one but two storms near Cape Verde at around the 80 hour mark. Definately something to watch. -- SkyFury 05:25, September 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * Do we actually have 3 AOI's at the same time near Africa? Geez. I think we could see some fighting between them due to their close proxmitity to one another, but hopefully all 3 will be fishes in the long run. Ryan1000 14:01, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Over Nigeria
3 AOIs today. The season is kicking back into gear. This is the "caboose" of the "African wave train" today. I'm only posting it as an AOI because of the huge amount of model support this has. Should come off of Africa in 2 days and some models have this developing nearly instantly and becoming a major hurricane (kinda Fred 2009-esque). We'll see what happens with this wave. Yqt1001 02:27, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I hope that this and the new AOI become short-lived and weak storms just like almost everyone else this season spat out, but we can't let our guard down yet. The atmospheric conditions in the central Atlantic are somewhat favorable for development(though Maria and Katia stole all of the warm waters), and the troughs and Bermuda High are still recurving every storm out to sea. If this keeps up, then Irene will remain the only bad storm through this entire season. =) Ryan1000 04:03, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">I'm thinking this might become a Julia-like hurricane.10Q.INVEST 23:26, September 15, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">10% now may be ophelia in the next couple of days Allanjeffs 18:17, September 16, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">20% now and invest 97L tell me if this one is the correct pleaseAllanjeffs 00:01, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Yes, Nate was 96L, so (Ophelia) must be 97L if this becomes invested. Ryan1000 00:09, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

97L.INVEST

 * Its already invest invest_al972011.invest my question was really if this was the correct AOI but thanks a lot Allanjeffs 00:13, September 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * :::::: Are we seriously talking about something over Nigeria? -- SkyFury 05:20, September 17, 2011 (UTC)


 * No its already out of land and its at 30% nowAllanjeffs 06:11, September 17, 2011 (UTC)
 * :::::::: Hopefully it's a hurricane but it has to be a fish storm.10Q.INVEST 17:42, September 17, 2011 (UTC)

Off of the TWO now. Yqt1001 18:14, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
10% right now, this split off of 98L. Yqt1001 18:14, September 18, 2011 (UTC)

<p style="margin-left: 40px">This one is invested already? Really? This one isn't going to do anything. None of the models develop this and the shear is really bad around it right now. The models do, however, develop something behind it and 98L, taking it out to sea to die though. -- SkyFury 05:12, September 19, 2011 (UTC)


 * 99L is off the TWO. Yqt1001 17:42, September 19, 2011 (UTC)
 * Back..near 0%. Yqt1001 23:38, September 20, 2011 (UTC)
 * To compare this to 98L, this thing is tiny!10Q.INVEST 02:02, September 21, 2011 (UTC)
 * It has a LLCC, but the storm activity is way off from center.10Q.INVEST 20:28, September 21, 2011 (UTC)

AOI: Over Bahamas
10%. Yqt1001 23:44, September 23, 2011 (UTC)


 * 20% now. Yqt1001

91L.INVEST
Invested. Yqt1001 15:14, September 24, 2011 (UTC)


 * 30% chance. Yqt1001 17:47, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * If it develops, this would become a Bret-like storm.10Q.INVEST 18:36, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Supposing TD17 becomes a tropical storm first, this would be Rina. I also feel this will be the last system to form in September. 108.9.68.10 18:41, September 24, 2011 (UTC) aka OWEN2011
 * Whoa, we're back into gear now. We have Ophelia(though it's going to be dying in the next, say 4 days), Philippe out of 17(which will be short-lived as well) and now possibly Rina? Geez. Assuming that happens, we're right behind 2005 in numbers. This year has been spitting out so many named storms but so few of them have been strong. This storm could cause some high surf on the eastern seaboard, but direct impacts should be kept to a minimum. Ryan1000 18:54, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * If you want to call this "back in gear." For this season I suppose it is. The GFDL and HWRF both take this up the US east coast as a borderline depression/tropical storm. However, as with TD17, the global models are much less enthusiastic. GFS makes it maybe a depression, maybe, and the ECMWF doesn't do anything with it at all. We'll see. This one has a pretty tight window to strengthen before shear picks up in about 36-48 hours. -- SkyFury 20:05, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * It will be the second earliest "R" storm if it does develop, but it won't live long even if (Rina) does develop. Ryan1000 23:57, September 24, 2011 (UTC)
 * Down to 20% now. Yqt1001 00:03, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * It doesn't look like this one is going to develop. It's getting absorbed into a frontal system. I'd be very surprised if anything comes of this. Looks like Rina will have to wait. -- SkyFury 04:42, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * And it's gone. Ryan1000 17:44, September 25, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Azores
Out there in a couple of days. Waiting to develop and models do have this. I'm not sure if it's going to be tropical, but it's worth mentioning.10Q.INVEST 18:03, September 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Likely to become subtropical after looking at theta - e and wind shear for GFS.10Q.INVEST 19:10, September 25, 2011 (UTC)


 * Where are you getting all this GFS data? I only have the model runs from FSU. -- SkyFury 22:48, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * They are the model runs from FSU. Isn't that enough?
 * See here
 * 10Q.INVEST 23:33, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * After looking at a few model runs...CMC and Nogaps have Philippe strengthening up near Azores in about 6-7 days while GFS and ECMW have both Phillipe and this storm up here at the same time in about 6-7 days. Interesting. Yqt1001 23:44, September 25, 2011 (UTC)
 * CMC and NOGAPS are terrible models (no offense, people who control it). Hopefully Rina would form here.10Q.INVEST 02:01, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * They aren't horrible models. They just aren't meant for tropical cyclones. CMC however, has a bias against the US and likes to blow up storms heading there. But that is a natural Canadian bias. :P Yqt1001 02:17, September 26, 2011 (UTC)
 * If it forms, it's going to be a Andrea - like storm.10Q.INVEST 21:56, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Not gone and unlikely to form now.10Q.INVEST 03:15, October 1, 2011 (UTC)

Aoi: Near Azores
There's an AOI currently near the Azores that seems to be possible for tropical development via extratropical transition. This isn't the AOI we were discussing above, but this AOI near the Azores right now already has an LLC and 35kts winds. All it really needs is to convert over... Yqt1001 22:22, September 26, 2011 (UTC)


 * Made a new section. This could form too.10Q.INVEST 02:39, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Could we have Rina then? We could use a few more non-failures for this year, because in the position this thing is in, it won't do anything. The Azores get storms all the time, and this one won't be exceptional if it does form over them. Ryan1000 03:18, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * About to be absorbed.10Q.INVEST 12:18, September 27, 2011 (UTC)
 * Now associated with a another system.10Q.INVEST 12:11, September 28, 2011 (UTC)