Forum:2018 Pacific hurricane season/October

AOI: West of Costa Rica
Anotha one...10/30. Tara, anyone? Ryan1000 03:48, October 4, 2018 (UTC)

97E.INVEST
Invested. This invest may actually be linked to future development of the Atlantic AOI over the NW Caribbean right now, but regardless of development, rainfall and flooding are threats to Central America. Ryan1000 04:05, October 5, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 20/30, although land interaction may inhibit development. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  04:54, October 5, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this is now expected to move inland and merge with 91L in the Atlantic. Ryan1000 05:33, October 6, 2018 (UTC)


 * Now 20/20, but realistically this isn't going to form because it will make landfall very soon. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:50, October 6, 2018 (UTC)

0/0. This is as good as dead now. Looks like we will have to wait a little longer for Tara. Send Help Please (talk) 22:08, October 6, 2018 (UTC)
 * Out of the TWO and combined with Michael.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     17:07, October 07, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: South of Mexico VIII
And another one is here. 10/20, but could become Tara (for the first time since 1982) while it slowly moves offshore of Mexico. Ryan1000 06:50, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * I doubt this will become much due to land interaction. At most, maybe a TD or (hopefully not) a name-stealer. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  17:21, October 11, 2018 (UTC)
 * 40/40 now. None of the models seem to develop it much, but we'll see. IbAHAn1829 \I like weather/ \Contributions/ 17:19, October 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 50/60 now. Let's see if the 8th South of Mexico AOI could develop into Tara. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:17, October 13, 2018 (UTC)

98E.INVEST
And it is now an invest. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:27, October 13, 2018 (UTC)
 * 60/70 now.  ~ Roy25     Talk  |  Contributions     02:07, October 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Wow, didn't really expect this much organization. However due to land interaction, it might only be TS Tara at most, unless it pulls off a Max. The 5-day forecast seems to take it more out to sea eventually. If that comes true, this system might be more significant than I expect. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:01, October 14, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty Two-E
35 mph/1006 mb as of latest advisory, and expected to become a hurricane as it moves away from the Mexican coast. Here comes Tara, our ACE record breaker! Send Help Please (talk) 15:13, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * Yep, we're going to pass 1992's ACE if this comes to pass, and we may have Vicente behind Tara from the below AOI. And, both will probably be fishspinners to boot. Great to see. We're currently at 293.6825 in 2018, 1992 ended at 295.492. So this would have to bust hard to not break 1992's all-time ACE record. Ryan1000 15:52, October 14, 2018 (UTC)
 * I believe future Tara and possible Vicente would make this the first TC season ever in the Western Hemisphere to reach 300 ACE units, no? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 18:44, October 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Well, since the 1992 PHS currently (though not for long) holds the all time WHem ACE record of 295.492 units, then yes, this would be the first season to break 300 ACE units, assuming Tata-to-be and Vicente are strong and long-lived enough. Ryan1000 20:39, October 14, 2018 (UTC)


 * Still a TD, but expected to become Tara and intensify to a hurricane in the coming days. Hopefully future Tara won't affect Baja later this week. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 06:44, October 15, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Tara
For the first time in 36 years, say hello to Tara! Ryan1000 10:33, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Tara is still at 45 mph, but a hurricane is out of the forecast as the NHC expects Tara to peak as a strong TS at 65 mph. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 19:57, October 15, 2018 (UTC)
 * Say hello to the storm that will make 2018 break the all-time EPac ACE record. Expected to strengthen to a peak of 65 mph, although it's entirely possible we'll see it become a hurricane. At the moment, 2018's ACE is 294, only a step away from tying 1992. And this is all from a season still 7 named storms, 4 hurricanes and one major behind 1992's storm total. Insane... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:11, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

Tara's already at 65 mph and could become a hurricane briefly. Also, she's getting a little too close for comfort to the Pacific coast of Mexico...behave yourself Tara. Ryan1000 03:46, October 16, 2018 (UTC)


 * Tara has apparently missed her opportunity to become a hurricane, but seems to be nearing a landfall in southwestern Mexico as a 60 mph TS. ACE currently at 294.72 units, less than 1 full unit away from 1992. Ryan1000 11:06, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 40 kts and forecast to weaken to a TD within the next 24 hours. Our (operational) ACE record-breaker may have to wait for Vicente, though I have a hunch that post-analysis may give this or Sergio the honor. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:37, October 16, 2018 (UTC)

Remnants of Tara
Ryan said that "this would have to bust hard to not break 1992's all-time ACE record," and indeed it did bust hard... which may actually be a good thing, given the proximity to Mexico. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 02:41, October 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Yeah, I suppose...but Tara still brought us to 294.88 units, so just 0.9 more ACE units and 1992 is done for. The 40/90 AOI behind ex-Tara will likely become Vicente and set the ACE record. Hopefully it stays offshore. Ryan1000 04:03, October 17, 2018 (UTC)


 * Disappointing that Tara dissipated this fast (although it was close to Mexico anyway), but there's still the other system that should become Vicente and make 2018 break the ACE record. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:28, October 18, 2018 (UTC)

24E.WILLA
See the archive on Willa.

AOI: 900 mi SSW of Baja
10/20. If this develops, we could be up to Willa.... ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  00:16, October 16, 2018 (UTC)
 * 0/10, probably won't be anything. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:31, October 18, 2018 (UTC)

Off the TWO. Ryan1000 10:27, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: SW of El Salvador
10/20 as of the moment. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 02:04, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

90E.INVEST
Invested and up to 30/40. We might get Willa from this and Vicente from the system in front of it. If this becomes Willa, it could recurve towards mainland Mexico down the road according to the GFS ensemble model members, but 99E is still likely to be a fish. Ryan1000 10:27, October 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Right now, this invest looks pretty good; I won't be surprised if this forms first. ChowKam2002 (talk) 11:15, October 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * Indeed, this is up to 70/80 and check this quote from the latest TWO: "Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system centered less than 100 miles off the coast of Guatemala continue to show signs of organization, and it is possible that a tropical depression could be forming. If this trend continues, then advisories could be initiated on this system later today" (emphasis mine). The race to Vicente is on. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 12:34, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

Looks like we have a race for Vicente. Since this is better organized right now, we might have Vicente from this first, and Willa from the invest in front of this. In any instance, western Mexico, in particular the area around or just south of Mazatlan, should watch out for this down the road, since it's still expected to recurve. Ryan1000 12:39, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E
"NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression 23-E, located south of Guatemala, at 10 AM CDT." This just stole the lead in the race. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:26, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Vicente
And it is now named Vicente. Forecast to peak at 65 mph and hit western Mexico later on.Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:43, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

23E beats 99E to Vicente. Didn't see that coming yesterday. YellowSkarmory (talk) 20:45, October 19, 2018 (UTC)

Well then, I didn’t expect this to become a named system first. Leeboy100 Hoping for speedy recovery from Michael and Florence. 20:55, October 19, 2018 (UTC)


 * Vicente is another one of those tiny storms, and the NHC says they have low confidence in the intensity forecast because of this. Southern Mexico may need to prepare for a stronger-than-expected system if this thing (unexpectedly) RI's. Ryan1000 22:26, October 19, 2018 (UTC)
 * ACE has broken 295 units, we're almost there... Send Help Please  (talk) 02:48, October 20, 2018 (UTC)

Vicente's CDO has decayed quite a bit over the past few hours. I hope this doesn't completely go bust...We're less than half an ACE unit away from 1992. Ryan1000 04:53, October 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Up to 50 mph/1002 mb as of latest advisory. Vicente might become Willa food a few days from now... Send Help Please  (talk) 21:16, October 20, 2018 (UTC)
 * Willa seems intent on avenging Ileana. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 22:36, October 20, 2018 (UTC)

Vicente is not close enough to Willa to be eaten up by the much larger and rapidly intensifying hurricane, though the cold wake and/or outflow left behind by Willa's (expected) rapid intensification could play a role in keeping Vicente's intensity in check, and keep him from getting too strong when he makes his brush or landfall with western Mexico, near the area where Tara died out. If this was a hundred miles or so closer to Willa, then he'd be eaten up in a heartbeat, like how John ate Ileana earlier this year. Ryan1000 12:27, October 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * Vicente is only 40 mph as of the latest advisory and I believe Willa's shear and stuff is currently putting it in check. I was somewhat hoping an Ileana-John situation would happen again... but I guess it probably won't. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:41, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

Vicente is feeling some of Willa's outermost rainbands shearing him, but he has organized a little bit more lately and expanded somewhat. However, Willa will probably be steering Vicente northward towards a landfall in southern Mexico instead of eat him like John did to Ileana, so Willa may actually be doing more harm than good. But Vicente won't be much different than Tara or Carlotta if he does hit the coastline. Ryan1000 12:34, October 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Winds slightly increased to 45 mph, pressure down to 1004 mb. Willa's wake and rainbands are really affecting Vicente, but heavy rainfall is the main threat from this one. We might see both Vicente and Willa make landfall at Mexico's Pacific coast on the same day, just hours apart. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:22, October 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Never mind. Vicente is back to 40 mph and 1005 mbar. He really is Tara's little brother. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 20:38, October 22, 2018 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Vicente
Down to a depression, and just about to make landfall and dissipate. Ryan1000 11:18, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Vicente
Gone, but not after causing mudslides (as Ryan mentioned). With Willa still slow-moving, this is looking to be an all-Pacific repeat of Manuel and Ingrid. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:54, October 23, 2018 (UTC)


 * Already 12 people have been killed by Vicente's flooding. Hopefully that doesn't go higher. Ryan1000 16:02, October 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * one word: o o f --Next time we meet, I&#39;m gonna land a thousand strikes on that face of yours. (talk) 17:46, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

AOI:SW of Willa
EPAC won't quit. Currently at 10/10. ~ Roy25    Talk  |  Contributions     17:37, October 21, 2018 (UTC)
 * This probably won't be much, but hey you never know. Send Help Please  (talk) 20:02, October 21, 2018 (UTC)

91E.INVEST
Up to 20/20 and invested. Upper-level winds are expected to strike in a couple days, so this would have to do some rapid organization in order to steal the name Xavier. If it somehow becomes named, it'll only be a fail at most. I can't believe the EPac has gotten this far into the naming list... I never ever tracked an XYZ EPac storm before. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  03:45, October 22, 2018 (UTC)
 * Gone from the TWO. Xavier will wait (if he ever comes). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:22, October 23, 2018 (UTC)
 * Dis fxcka did neva a guh develop anyway absolute nothingburga --Next time we meet, I&#39;m gonna land a thousand strikes on that face of yours. (talk) 17:48, October 23, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: S of Gulf of Tehuantepec
The EPac simply refuses to give up, even with 313 ACE units. 0/20. ~ KN2731 {talk} 15:15, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * Here comes Xavier...Ryan1000 16:32, October 25, 2018 (UTC)
 * This may take a while to develop but I agree Xavier is possible in the long run from this, after the dry air goes away. The EPac has been sooo active this year! ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  06:39, October 26, 2018 (UTC)

92E.INVEST
Invested and up to 20/40. To be honest, this will probably be only a weak storm. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:16, October 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/20, expect the below system to possibly be Xavier instead. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:25, October 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * 10/10 now. Will be gone soon. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 16:54, October 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * 0/10...looks like this busted. Ryan1000 23:13, October 30, 2018 (UTC)


 * Off the TWO. ~  Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  💀👻  03:51, November 1, 2018 (UTC)

AOI: West of 92E
Another one up at 10/20, but I doubt this will become anything significant. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  01:16, October 28, 2018 (UTC)
 * (edit conflict) Ninja'd. If both this and 92E develop, we could run the table if we get just one more storm behind these two. Ryan1000 01:20, October 28, 2018 (UTC)

93E.INVEST
Invested. It appears this could be Xavier instead because the other system is busting, and it's getting less likely we'll run the table this year. Up to 30/40. ~  Steve   Talk Page  My Edits  📧  05:27, October 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 20/30, this might bust too... Ryan1000 23:13, October 30, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down further to 20/20. ~ KN2731 {talk} 14:02, October 31, 2018 (UTC)
 * Down to 10/10, yep, another one that apparently went bust... ~ <font face="Impact"> Steve 🎃   Happy  Halloween!  💀👻  03:51, November 1, 2018 (UTC)