Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season

Future Start
Same with ATL and EPac. Betting pools for the WPac and NIO will be made once 2013 is over. Ryan1000 01:08, October 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Here are my predictions for the Western Pacific (using JMA categories):

60 total depressions, 33 total tropical storms, 27 total severe tropical storms, 21 total typhoons (11 strong, 6 intense, and 4 violent), and an ACE of 450 (give or take 25). Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:51, January 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * 60 depressions? Are you trying to predict the most active season in world history or something?! I don't think we will get even close to that number of depressions. Heck, we might not even reach 40. Anyway, time for my predictions, which are meant to be realistic as I can: 35 total depressions, 28 total tropical storms, 23 total severe tropical storms, 16 total typhoons (10 strong, 5 intense, and 2 violent). Steven  09876  ✉  05:34, January 4, 2014 (UTC)

90W.INVEST
Invest 90W has been classified per the JTWC. It is currently at 6.5N 159.1E, 60 nm ESE of Pohnpei, with a broad and elongated LLCC and developing convection in the southwestern quadrant per MSI. Enhanced westerly flow is also present per a recent 2331Z ASCAT pass, with west to southwest wind observations in Pohnpei reaching 10 to 15 knots. With low to moderate VWS of 10 to 15 knots, most dynamic models forecast development in the next 48 to 72 hours. However, chances of formation in the next 24 hours per the JTWC are currently at low. The agency also estimates winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph, 25 to 40 km/h) (1-minute winds) with a pressure of around 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg). I hope this can become something! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  17:09, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * This is the one that I predict could be Halong. --  Steve  820  ✉   22:32, July 26, 2014 (UTC)


 * Invest 90W has been relocated to 11.7N 153.9E, 290 nm NNE of Chuuk. MSI reveals a highly elongated, chaotic LLCC oriented NW to SE, with flaring convection in the northern quadrant. A 0356Z AMSU-B microwave image shows poor organization and weakly defined convection. Due to a trough entering the area and VWS kicking in, outflow has become limited in the system. Nevertheless, most dynamic models get aggressive with Invest 90W after the next 48 to 72 hours. However, the JTWC still assesses the probability of development in the next 24 hours to be low. Winds have decreased to 10 to 15 knots (10 to 15 mph, 15 to 25 km/h) (1-minute winds) per the JTWC, and they have also lowered the pressure to 1008 mbar (hPa; 29.76 inHg). The JMA has not commented yet on this system, to my knowledge. Keep trying, Invest 90W! You'll eventually become something! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:43, July 27, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 11W
90W has become a tropical depression per the JTWC; they have numbered it 11W. Located 251 nm ESE of Andersen AFB (Air Force Base), animated EIS reveals deep central convection obscuring an LLCC. Also, a recent 1624Z NOAA-19 microwave image reveals convective banding wrapping in the northern and southern quadrants. Based on PGTW and KNES Dvorak estimates, the intensity of 11W has been set at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph, 70 km/h). Under the influence of the southwestern periphery of the STR, Tropical Depression 11W should continue to move westwards. With excellent equatorial outflow and low to moderate VWS of five to fifteen knots, the depression should gradually intensify to become a typhoon with winds of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 85 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h). However, due to uncertainty in the current position of 11W, the JTWC is not very confident with their forecast. Meanwhile, the JMA have placed the depression on their tracking map with winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute) as well, accompanied by a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg). They are rather aggressive with this system for an initial forecast - taking it up to 45 knots (50 mph, 80 km/h)/994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg) within the next 24 hours; this is the highest initial intensity forecast I have ever seen them give! Hopefully the folks in Guam make it out okay! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:18, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now named Halong by JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:24, July 29, 2014 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Halong
Wow, 11W has been intensifying much faster than I thought! The JMA already has classified the depression as Tropical Storm Halong (Vietnamese for a popular tourist destination), with winds of 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (10-minute), accompanied by a pressure of 992 mbar (hPa; 29.29 inHg). They are rather aggressive with the storm, as it curves north-northwestwards, with a forecast peak of 80 knots (90 mph) (10-minute) /955 mbar (hPa) expected in the next 72 hours. The JTWC have fixed Halong's center to be 134 nm E of Andersen AFB, and EIS imagery depicts improved convective banding. Also, a recent 1146Z GMI image reveals a small microwave eye feature is present on satellite imagery! Based on ASCAT images of 45 to 50 knot core winds, PGTW estimates of 55 knots, and the storm's convective structure, the JTWC has set Halong's one-minute winds to be 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). Upper-level analysis reveals enhanced outflow and two TUTT cells feeding in from the northeast and west. Due to the motion of 96W (Inday), the STR to the north of Halong should build, guiding it generally northwestwards. For the next 72 hours, favorable environmental conditions should allow a peak of 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute). Hopefully, everything turns out all right! :) Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:37, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * Guam is going to get some rain from this storm, but it likely won't be too severe for them; they've gotten very prepared for typhoons since they were decimated by past storms like Karen, Pamela, Paka, and most recently Pongsona. I think it will most likely head towards Japan in the long run, hopefully by then as a weakening typhoon like Neoguri earlier this year. Ryan1000 20:51, July 29, 2014 (UTC)


 * No worries, the current JTWC forecast weakens Halong long before it reaches Okinawa. However, it is continuing to get more organized. A 1612Z NOAA-19 image reveals tightly-curved banding wrapping into the LLCC, and EIS is showing improved convective banding. Based on PGTW Dvorak estimates and its current structure, the JTWC have kept Halong's winds at 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). Improving upper-level conditions should continue to allow the storm to intensify, reaching the same forecast peak from my last post with gusts of 130 knots (150 mph) in ~72 hours. Afterwards, increasing VWS will prompt gradual weakening of Halong, crashing down to a weak Category 2 typhoon in ~120 hours. Heavy rains were reported in Guam from the storm, but I don't think it was too bad for them. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:34, July 29, 2014 (UTC)
 * This luckily shouldn't do much to land, unlike Nakri which seems to be threatening the Ryukyu Islands, China, and Taiwan. I root for Halong to become something strong! --  Steve  820  ✉   00:09, July 30, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong is now located 122 nm NW of Navasta, Guam. Unfortunately, EIS reveals an upper-level anticyclone which has been creating VWS in excess of 30 knots around the storm, diminishing the deep convection and exposing the LLCC. Decreasing Dvorak numbers have prompted the JTWC to lower Halong's winds to 45 knots (50 mph, 85 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 55 knots (65 mph, 105 km/h). The storm should track northwestwards under the influence of the southern periphery of a STR for the next 48 hours, and then interaction with Nakri will cause a shift in the STR's position. High amounts of VWS should prevent any significant intensification of Halong for the next couple of days, but marginal environmental improvements should prompt quicker intensification. A peak of 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute) with gusts of 105 knots (120 mph) before an upper-level high pressure and increasing VWS kick in again. Meanwhile, the JMA has maintained Halong's intensity and predicts a peak of 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute) as well, with a pressure of 955 mbar (hPa) for the next 72 hours. It looks like Halong still has a chance to become something decent, but not as strong as we expected. As a side note, gusts of 53 mph and 11.82 inches of rain were reported in Andersen AFB from Halong. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:34, July 30, 2014 (UTC)
 * Maybe it'll only peak as a weak typhoon. I still root for it to rapidly intensify, even though that is looking unlikely at this point. --  Steve  820  ✉   01:41, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong has been relocated to 181 nm NNW of Navasta, Guam. Intensity and forecast logic remain the same from both the JTWC and JMA side. Minor damage has been reported in Guam. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:16, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong is now located at 14.9N 140.0E, 236 nm NNW of Navasta, Guam. EIS reveals deep convection is increasing again while a CDO has developed over a once-exposed LLCC. A 1037Z SSMIS microwave image reveals the convection is also wrapping tighter into the LLCC and becoming more defined. Although Dvroak estimates from PGTW and RJTD remain at 45 knots, the increased consolidation has prompted the JTWC to raise Halong's intensity back to 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h) (1-minute) with gusts of 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h). Currently tracking westwards under the influence of the southern periphery of a STR, the storm is expected to move more west-northwestwards for another 36 hours per the JTWC, before the STR weakens and prompts a more northwestwards movement. Despite the presence of northerly VWS, strong equatorial outflow should prompt gradual intensification to 95 knots (110 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 115 knots (130 mph) over the next 72 hours. Afterwards, unfavorable conditions should initiate Halong's weakening, but it could still reach the Ryukyu Islands as a modest typhoon. Minimal damage has been reported in Guam, and I hope that is all I hear impactwise from this storm. Meanwhile, the JMA have lowered Halong's pressure slightly to 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). For whatever reason, they are not as excited about the system as they were before; they only take it to 75 knots (85 mph) (10-minute) /960 mbar (hPa) for the next 72 hours. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, July 31, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong is now located 301 nm NNW of Yap. MSI reveals strong northerly VWS of 30 to 40 knots attacking the storm, exposing the LLCC. Nevertheless, excellent equatorial outflow to the primary system convection. Moving northwards under the southern periphery of an STR, it should turn northwestwards for the remainder of the forecast period. Eventually, Halong will weaken due to a broad upper-level high pressure area to its northwest, towards the Ryukyu Islands. Winds have been slightly increased by the JTWC to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (1-minute), gusting to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h). The same JTWC forecast peak is expected, and no intensity or forecast changes have been made by the JMA. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  03:03, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Halong
Halong has been relocated to 14.7N 138.6E, 313 nm N of Yap. MSI and water vapor imagery still show strong VWS of 30 to 40 knots affecting the storm, and the LLCC is still somewhat exposed. Based on PGTW, KNES, and RJTD Dvorak estimates, Halong's JTWC intensity has been maintained. The storm should move generally WNW under the influence of the Philippine Sea STR. This will bring it to areas of less lethal VWS, prompting the forecast peak of 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute). After several days, a trough will modify the position of the STR and Nakri, allowing Halong to recurve more eastwards, per GFS and ECMWF. NAVGEM, however, predicts Halong will follow in Nakri's footsteps. Regardless of which direction Halong takes, many people need to start getting prepared soon. Also, the JMA has upgraded Halong's winds to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (10-minute) and lowered its pressure to 985 mbar (hPa; 29.09 inHg). Their forecast peak for the storm is 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute) /950 mbar (hPa), similar to the JTWC. IMO, Halong has the looks of a typhoon; it's just lacking the winds. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:49, August 1, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope it becomes a typhoon by tonight! And I root for it to be something strong. --  Steve  820  ✉   21:01, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

Typhoon Halong
Halong did it! The JMA have upped its winds to 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1-minute) and lowered its pressure to 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg). They have upped their forecast peak to 85 knots (100 mph) (10-minute) /940 mbar (hPa) for the next 72 hours. Meanwhile, on the JTWC side, they have relocated Halong to 332 nm NNW of Yap. EIR satellite imagery shows a 30 nm wide eye wrapping into an LLCC. A 1720Z NOAA microwave image reveals deep convection consolidating around the eye. Based on PGTW and KNES Dvorak estimates, Halong's JTWC intensity has been raised to 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 90 knots (105 mph, 170 km/h). And if that does not impress you, the typhoon became one under 15 to 25 knots of moderate northerly VWS. The STR to Halong's north should steer it generally WNW for the next 24 to 36 hours. Between 36 and 48 hours, an upper-level trough located NE of northern Japan should extend SW enough that the STR will allow Halong to move more NW. After 72 hours, the STR is forecast to relocate east of the typhoon, allowing it to resume its WNW motion. With a favorable environment ahead of it, the JTWC forecasts a peak intensity of 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute). While this may seem good for our POV, this means Halong is more likely to reach the Ryukyu Islands as a C2 typhoon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:41, August 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Halong looks amazing right now...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:30, August 2, 2014 (UTC)

This thing is exploding right now, Halong is a 130 mph category 4 typhoon and still going up. A Cat 5 might not even be out of the question at this point. It is also a "very strong typhoon" right now by the JMA scale. Ryan1000 08:35, August 2, 2014 (UTC)


 * According to the JTWC, Halong's winds have dropped risen 60 knots in 24 hours! Not only that, but the typhoon has developed a 130 nm wide eyewall with a 32 nm wide eye, based on MSI. Although many convective bands wrapping into the eastern periphery of Halong's LLCC are present in the southern quadrant, an 0756Z SSMIS image reveals deep convection is minimal in the northern quadrant. Nevertheless, Dvorak estimates of T6.0 from PGTW have prompted the wind upgrade to 115 knots (130 mph, 215 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 140 knots (160 mph, 255 km/h). With excellent equatorial and poleward outflow from a TUTT cell to the northeast, I have no doubts as to why Halong will not stop. It should move generally NNW under the influence of a north-south STR situated over Japan and steering outflow from Nakri, likely reaching super typhoon intensity in ~12 to 24 hours as it continues its RI phase. 130 knots (150 mph) (1-minute) is the JTWC peak for now, accompanied by gusts of 160 knots (185 mph). Afterwards, however, increasing northerly VWS should prompt gradual weakening of the typhoon. As it continues this motion WNW, the JTWC bring Halong very near Okinawa as a potentially dangerous Category 2 typhoon. On the JMA side, they have upped Halong's winds to 85 knots (100 mph, 155 km/h) (10-minute) and rapidly lowered its pressure to 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg). They forecast a similar motion to the JTWC's and expect a peak intensity of 90 knots (105 mph) (10-minute) /930 mbar (hPa). This is looking rather dangerous now for the Ryukyu Islands; they definitely do not need this right now! As a side note, PAGASA has named Halong Jose. They report winds of 160 km/h (85 knots, 100 mph) (10-minute) gusting to 195 km/h (105 knots, 120 mph). No impacts are expected in the Philippines, save for the enhancing of the southwestern monsoon. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:58, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * This is now a Cat 5 by JTWC standards, the first of the year. 140 kts (1-min). And Andrew, I think you mean the winds rose 60 kts instead of dropping? --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:39, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Wow!! This thing is exploding :O And Andrew, you mean the winds rose 60 kts? I think you need to fix that :P --  Steve  820  ✉   21:36, August 2, 2014 (UTC)
 * Yes Steve I already said that about Andrew. I don't want to sound mean but could you please refrain from copying/closely paraphrasing what I post? You've done it several times now. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 03:00, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Its beautiful and amazing.Allanjeffs 04:22, August 3, 2014 (UTC)

Forecast to only weaken from here on out. Pretty impressive storm, and we should be thankful it won't be hitting anywhere at this intensity. Actually, forget about before, the JMA scale doesn't actually classify storms as violent or whatnot, we'll just call them typhoons. Ryan1000 11:18, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Down to 130 kts (1-min) per the JTWC but up to a "violent" 105 kts (10-min)/915 mbar per the JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 17:20, August 3, 2014 (UTC)
 * Dylan, I don't care if I was paraphrasing, I just wanted to be the second person to report Andrew's error. I wasn't trying to paraphrase you in any way (even though what I said might have been similar to yours). Anyways, this is an impressive storm, and the Ryukyu Islands might need to watch out. --  Steve  820  ✉   18:36, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Well, I briefly checked Wikipedia last night, and I was very surprised Halong was able to become a Categroy 5. Now located 689 nm SSE of Kadena AB, EIS still shows a 16 nm wide eye and asymmetric eyewall in the typhoon, and 1251Z METOP-B image shows the main eyewall has been deteriorating. Most Dvorak estimates have fallen to T6.0, which is why I think the JTWC lowered the winds with gusts of 160 knots (185 mph). However, water vapor imagery shows very vigorous equatorial outflow feeding Halong. The N-S oriented STR over Japan will likely prompt a northwards motion towards the nation for the next 72 hours. Due to northerly VWS and a potential ERC, Halong should start to weaken from here on out. After a few days, the models get pretty creative with Halong's motion. Some show a mid-latitude trough digging over the Korean Peninsula and Japan weakening the STR, but it is most likely the ridge will build a northwards extension towards Kyushu. The JTWC forecast shows a northwards motion towards Korea, agreeing with Scenario A. The JMA predicts Halong will reach Okinawa with winds of 100 knots (115 mph) (1-minute) /925 mbar (hPa), while the JTWC predicts a strong Category 2 direct hit. I'm glad Halong is weakening; this is becoming a monster for Japan and Korea, which has just seen Nakri. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:45, August 3, 2014 (UTC)


 * Now 610 nm SSE of Kadena AB, MSI has depicted a cloud-filled eye and weakening deep convection. Slight elongating is occuring in Halong due to northerly VWS. Based on Dvorak estimates, the JTWC has lowered the typhoon's intensity to 115 knots (130 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 140 knots (160 mph). While the STR should continue steering Halong generally northwards for another couple of days, its reorientation should prompt a NNE motion more towards Japan. The typhoon should continue to weaken under the influence of northerly VWS. The JMA intensity is down to 95 knots (110 mph) (10-minute) /930 mbar (hPa). I'm about to fly into southern China, and our flight will travel right through Halong's forecast path. Hopefully, I stay alive! If not, I've enjoyed posting on Hurricanes Wiki for the past three years! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:59, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Currently, JMA reports winds of 85 knots with gusts to 120 kts (10-minute) and predicts it to reach 130 kts before weakening. What an awesome storm, but the Ryukyu Islands still need to watch out. And not to mention Andrew's flight, let's hope it didn't enter Halong and crash! I'm getting increasingly worried about him the longer we wait until the next time he posts. D: --  Steve  820  ✉   18:05, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * It's now down to cat 2, 110 mph (100 mph 10-min), and will probably be a cat 1 or TS when it hits southern Japan in 3 or 4 days. Ryan1000 20:27, August 4, 2014 (UTC)
 * Halong is currently 80 kts/955 mbar (10-minute winds) and it is predicted to restrengthen a little bit to 85 kts before beginning to weaken by Friday. All info coming from the JMA. The Ryukyu Islands and Japan are still in the forecast cone and they should prepare! --  Steve  820  ✉   00:10, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * It'll probably miss the Ryukyu Islands to the east and hit mainland Japan as a cat 2 or 1. Halong looks like it's finished an ERC and it's about to intensify again, possibly to a category 2 or 3 storm, but it'll weaken again before making landfall in Japan. Out of all of the storms being tracked right now, this one actually poses the biggest threat to land, I'm surprised this one hasn't recieved as much attention as the EPac storms have. Ryan1000 01:05, August 6, 2014 (UTC)
 * Currently, JMA reports 75 kt (85 mph) winds and a pressure of 955 mbars out of Halong. It's still slowly approaching Japan and it might re-strengthen. Oh, and another thing that's looking really scary and worrying: Andrew hasn't posted at all since his above post saying his flight will travel through Halong's path and hopefully he'll stay alive, which was a few days ago!!! He usually posts every day but this is just starting to freak me out. I really really hope he didn't die or anything. Or, maybe he's just vacationing in China and too busy for the internet, and that he actually survived Halong? I don't know! :O --  Steve  820  ✉   02:35, August 7, 2014 (UTC)
 * Steven, the WPac seems to have lost some attention with the current threat to Hawaii from Hurricane Iselle, since that's not something you see every day (and Genevieve became a cat 5), Halongs isn't nearly as notable. However, the latest forecast from the JTWC takes it up to cat 2 again before making landfall as a cat 1. What worries me with Halong is that it's moving very slowly so it could cause lots of flooding like Talas in 2011 (which killed 73 people in Japan and caused record rainfall over parts of the southern islands) yet it still wasn't retired. I'm currently more worried about the threat to Hawaii from Iselle, but Halong still shouldn't be neglected as it could cause far more impacts than Iselle. Ryan1000 19:24, August 7, 2014 (UTC)

(←)Hey, guys, I'm still alive! :) My flight actually didn't go through Halong's circulation. Anyway, with the typhoon, it seems to be getting more and more eventful for Japan. Winds remain at 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (10-minute), but its pressure has fallen to 945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg). For some reason, I can not access the JTWC either, like Steve. Is the website down, by chance? Wikipedia claims their intensity for Halong is also 75 knots (85 mph, 140 km/h) (1-minute) . I was not expecting Halong to slow down this rapid. The JMA expects the typhoon to only gradually weaken before making landfall over Japan, and even then, they keep it as a strong STS with winds of 60 knots (70 mph) (10-minute) and a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa). This is looking rather nasty for Japan and Russia; both regions could experience very severe flooding. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  06:48, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * I hope it won't be so bad of a storm for Japan and Russia, and I'm glad you made it out alive! :) --  Steve  820  ✉   17:17, August 8, 2014 (UTC)


 * The JTWC has lowered their winds on Halong to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (1-minute) . The JMA has raised the typhoon's pressure to 955 mbar (hPa). Landfall is expected in Shikoku as a weak typhoon and then Siberia as a moderate TS based on the latest JMA forecast. No damages or fatalities have been reported from Halong yet, but the situation is growing more serious in Japan. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:24, August 9, 2014 (UTC)


 * The JMA has now also lowered Halong's winds to 70 knots (80 mph, 130 km/h) (10-minute) and raised its pressure to 960 mbar (hPa; 28.35 inHg) as it continues to bear down on Japan. Gusts are currently at 85 knots (100 mph, 160 km/h) per the JTWC. Both agencies still expect landfall at borderline typhoon intensity over Shikoku before rapidly weakening in the Sea of Japan. Unfortunately, a 78 year old man died in Iwate Perfecture, Japan due to heavy flooding. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:19, August 9, 2014 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Halong (2nd time)
Halong has made landfall over Shikoku Island, Japan as a weak typhoon. It is now weakening even further over Honshu. The JMA has lowered the storm's winds to 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) (10-minute), with a pressure of 970 mbar (hPa; 28.64 inHg). The JTWC also report's Halong's winds to be 60 knots (70 mph, 110 km/h) (1-minute) gusting to 75 knots (85 mph, 135 km/h). Very strangely, the JMA forecast the storm to regain typhoon intensity in the Sea of Japan before degenerating over Russia. What? Is that even logical? The JTWC forecast seems more reasonable to me - they degenerate Halong before it even hits Russia. At this point, nothing seems too bad in Japan, but that could easily change. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:45, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong's center has just entered the Sea of Japan, based on the latest JMA analysis. Its pressure has been raised to 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg). Mysteriously, the JMA still forecast Halong to become a typhoon once more in the Sea of Japan before rapidly degenerating over Russia. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  06:05, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Forget what I said about Halong not being non-destructive. Mie Perfecture in Japan issued an "emergency weather warning", as Hakusan reported nearly 17 inches of rain in 24 hours, breaking the previous record set by Man-yi last year. Winds of 27 m/s (50 knots, 60 mph) were reported in Cape Muroto, which was the highest windspeed observed anywhere in Japan today. In addition, the Shimizu observation site near Cape Ashizuri in Kochi Perfecture reported a gust of 83 mph - similarly the highest measured in the nation today. With heavy rainfall crashing down, I will be very surprised if no damages get reported from Halong. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:04, August 10, 2014 (UTC)


 * Halong is now located just to the west of Hokkaido. The JTWC has stopped issuing advisories, and the JMA has lowered the storm's winds to 55 knots (65 mph, 100 km/h) (10-minute) . The latest JMA forecast degenerates Halong as it makes landfall over Siberia and rapidly kills it over land. Nine fatalities have been reported in Japan, with dozens more injured. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:27, August 10, 2014 (UTC)

Remnants of Halong
Per the JMA, Halong degenerated into an extratropical cyclone right before making landfall over Russia. Overall, Halong could have been a lot worse, but it sure caused a lot of trouble the way it was. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:17, August 11, 2014 (UTC)

August
Welcome to August in the WPAC! With the MJO in full swing here, I definitely think we are looking at an active month here. 9 depressions, 7 storms, 5 severe tropical storms, 4 typhoons, and an ACE of 90 units is what I would expect from here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:25, August 1, 2014 (UTC)

07E.GENEVIEVE
See here. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  07:16, August 8, 2014 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
With four storms at hand, I feel like we can start this section.


 * 1) January JMA Tropical Depression - 0% - For obvious reasons.
 * 2) Lingling - 15% - I don't know what to say here. Seventy people is a hefty fatality number from all that flooding in the Philippines, but worse has struck and evicted them.
 * 3) *Agaton - 25% - Usually, it takes 300 fatalities to bust out a PAGASA name, but Agaton was a very nasty early season surprise for them.
 * 4) Kajiki - 5% - Seven fatalities and an early season Philippine landfall is probably all Kajiki will be remembered for, and Lingling was worse.
 * 5) *Basyang - 10% - I feel Agaton was worse, although Basyang did kill seven and produce minor impacts.
 * 6) Faxai - 0% - Became a breathtaking March typhoon, but caused no land impacts, so no.
 * 7) March JMA Tropical Depression - 0%
 * 8) 04W - 0% - Not named by the JMA.
 * 9) *Caloy - 1% - Even Basyang was worse!
 * 10) Peipah - 0.1% - This could have been a much different story for the Philippines. Luckily, Peipah was kept in check.
 * 11) *Domeng - 0.1% - Caloy was worse than you!
 * 12) Mitag - 0.5% - Mitag zipped by a number of areas, but it had very little impact whatsoever outside of the Philippines.
 * 13) *Ester - 2% - Some slight flooding was reported in the Philippines, but no damages or fatalites have been reported.
 * 14) Hagibis - 8% - Well, the $131 million (2014 USD) was more than I expected. But even with 11 casualties, I do not think Hagibis will get retired.
 * 15) Neoguri - 10% - With seven fatalities and slight to moderate damage across Okinawa and Japan, I do not expect Neoguri's demise yet.
 * 16) *Florita - 0% - To my knowledge, Florita completely missed the Philippines.
 * 17) Rammasun - 60% - Yikes, the Thai god of thunder sure did leave his mark. Ninety percent of Metro Manila was left without power, and almost a hundred fatalities were reported in the Philippines. If that does not seal the deal, 51,000 homes were destroyed by Rammasun in Hainan, and Haikou, widespread tree, flooding, structural, and vehicle damage was reported. This was the most severe impacts they have witnessed from a typhoon in over four centuries. Vietnam also saw some nasty effects from Rammasun. With 187 fatalities and $6.51 billion (2014 USD) in losses, the typhoon is the sixth costliest WPAC system on record. I really hope Rammasun is kicked off the list, but deadlier storms have been snubbed in the past.
 * 18) *Glenda - 100% - Recent damage estimates from Glenda guarantee its retirement.
 * 19) Matmo - 20% - Matmo caused some severe agricultural damage in Taiwan and killed three across the nation and China. In addition, there was the nasty TransAsia airline crash which killed 48. Although this was less devastating than what I thought, 62 deaths and $565 million (2014 USD) is nothing we should be laughing at, and there is definitely a good chance here.
 * 20) *Henry - 1% - As far as I recall, nothing yet has been reported in the Philippines from Henry.
 * 21) Halong - TBA - Still Active
 * 22) *Jose - TBA - Still Active
 * 23) Nakri - 10% - Fatalities in the Koreas were a little more deadly than I expected, and 16 deaths is nothing to laugh at. However, damages in relation to Nakri are only "moderate", so I don't know how bad that's supposed to be. Regardless, Nakri has an extremely slim chance of retirement.
 * 24) *Inday - 0% - Inday completely missed the region.

Post yours, too! Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

Steven's retirement predictions:

JMA names
 * Lingling: 20% - 70 deaths but still doesn't seem bad enough for a retirement.
 * Kajiki: 5% - Slight impacts for the Philippines, but Lingling was worse.
 * Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon, but still no land impacts.
 * Peipah: 1% - Umm, no.
 * Tapah: 0% - No land was harmed in the making of Tapah.
 * Mitag: 0.5% - Very little impact.
 * Hagibis: 5% - $131 million in China and 11 deaths, but it most likely won't be retired.
 * Neoguri: 10% - Could've been a different story for Japan but luckily it weakened a lot before reaching Japan. There were much worse storms than Neoguri in the country, so I don't expect a retirement out of this guy.
 * Rammasun: 70% - With all the damages it caused in Philippines and Hainan a retirement is very likely out of him.
 * Matmo: 30% - Slight chance due to some destruction in Taiwan and China. It also caused a very deadly TransAsia plane crash that caused 48 deaths.
 * Halong: ? - Still active
 * Nakri: 5% - 11 deaths and moderate damage throughout its path, but I doubt it would be retired.

PAGASA names
 * Agaton: 30% - What a nasty early season surprise, might be retired but at the same time I think not.
 * Basyang: 10% - 7 deaths, however, Agaton was worse and Basyang barely has a chance.
 * Caloy: 1% - Seriously? Even Basyang was worse than you.
 * Domeng: 0.01% - Lol, this epic fail couldn't even compete with Caloy! :O It still affected land though, so I tacked a "0.01%" on Domeng.
 * Ester: 1% - Some flooding in the Philippines but it's not getting the boot.
 * Florita: 0% - Missed the Philippines
 * Glenda: 100% - With all the damages it caused, it will certainly be retired. PHP 1 billion in damage is enough to give it the boot.
 * Henry: 0% - Missed the Philippines
 * Inday: 0% - Missed the Philippines
 * Jose: 0% - Missed the Philippines

 Steve  820  ✉   20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC) (Last updated: 18:27, August 7, 2014 (UTC))

Ryan Grand's great speech...

JMA names: PAGASA names:
 * Lingling - 38% - 70 deaths isn't anything to laugh at, but enough for retirement? Probably not, unfortunately.
 * Kajiki - 3% - Caused some impacts, but it's nothing retirement-worthy.
 * Faxai - 0% - Became a typhoon, that's about it.
 * Peipah - 7% - Wasn't anything severe.
 * Tapah - 0% - No notable impact.
 * Mitang - 0% - Didn't know this one existed lol.
 * Hagbis - 15% - 131 million in damage and 11 deaths isn't a fail, but it's not enough to get the boot either.
 * Neoguri - 11% - Killed 7 people and caused some damage here and there, but Japan has seen worse and I don't expect it to be retired.
 * Rammasun - 80% - Six billion dollars in damage and over 100 deaths are very good numbers to retire a name, making Rammasun one of the top 10 costliest typhoons in history, but there have been bigger numbers from some other snubs in the WPac before, like Songda '04 (9 billion in damage) and Fengshen '08 (over 1000 deaths). Still, it was a widespread, destructive storm, and it has a fairly good shot at retirement.
 * Matmo - 45% - Current damage estimates are 567 million and it killed over 60 people in Taiwan and China, but, while that's bad, it's not like they haven't seen that before.
 * Halong - ?? - Heading towards Japan atm. We'll see.
 * Nakri - 6% - 16 deaths and moderate damage reported. While that's not nothing, it isn't enough to retire it either.
 * Agaton - 35% - A bit higher than it's JMA name, but even so, I have doubts it will go.
 * Basyang - 8% - Killed a few people and caused some damage, but it was far less devastating than Agaton, and many other storms that have hit the islands in the past.
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Is this a joke?
 * Domeng - 0% - Didn't cause severe effects to the Philipines.
 * Ester - 0% - Missed them completely.
 * Florita - 0% - Not even close.
 * Glenda - 100% - PAGASA storm names are retired if they cause at least 1 billion PHP in damage, and Glenda caused roughly 10 billion (the 9th costliest typhoon in the nation's history), so yeah, goodbye.
 * Henry - 0% - Didn't touch the Philipines.
 * Inday - 0% - Nope.
 * Jose - 0% - Long miss.

That sums it up. Ryan1000 23:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC)

71.187.140.146's retirements PAGASA TO BE CONTINUED 71.187.140.146 23:17, May 1, 2014 (UTC)
 * Lingling - 15%
 * Kajiki  - 0.05%
 * Faxai - 0% - Good job Faxai.
 * Peipah - 8% -  for its name sounds like Peppa(which was called Peppa Pig)
 * Tapah - 0.5% - Tapah reminds me of a Japanese Man
 * Agaton - 25%
 * Basyang - 9%
 * Caloy - 0.5% - Funny name
 * Domemeng - 4% - lower than JMA name

MY PREDICTIONS:


 * JMA:


 * Lingling - 30% - significant damage to the Philippines, but not enough.
 * Kajiki - 10% - Lingling was worse.
 * Faxai - 5% - A March typhoon. Just a March typhoon. No impact(s) at land.
 * Peipah - 2% - Eh?
 * Tapah - 0% - Wait, there's a storm named Tapah?
 * Mitag - 3% - Um... not really.
 * Hagibis - 20% - Oh, 11 deaths and $131 million worth of damage. China has seen worse storms.
 * Neoguri - 23% - Japan has seen worse than this, but wow, it was a big threat to Japan
 * Rammasun - 85% - Philippines consider this comparable to Xangsane, but Xangsane was worse though. But 40 deaths is quite big. And it hasn't dissipated yet. Forget what I have said before, $4.55 billion worth of damages and 170 total deaths in China, Vietnam and the Philippines is enough to retire Rammasun.
 * PAGASA:


 * Agaton - 35% - What an early surprise to the Philippines. 70 deaths, but that's it.
 * Basyang - 25% - Agaton was worse.
 * Caloy - 0% - Nah.
 * Domeng - 0% - Same with Caloy.
 * Ester - 2% - Quite affected the Philippines, but no significant damage.
 * Florita - 3% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon, but other than that, nothing else.
 * Glenda - 100% - OUT. PHP 1 billion worth of damages is enough.
 * (TO BE CONTINUED) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, July 17, 2014 (UTC)
 * (TO BE CONTINUED) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, July 17, 2014 (UTC)

Time to throw my hat into the ring:
 * JMA
 * Lingling: 29% - 70 fatalities is no laughing matter, but deadlier Philippine storms have been snubbed before.
 * Kajiki: 7% - Wasn't bad enough.
 * Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon... and that's it.
 * Peipah: 0% - Nah.
 * Tapah: 0% - Glub glub glub.
 * Mitag: Who cares?
 * Hagibis: 13% - Death toll and damage bill are respectable, but not enough.
 * Neoguri: 14% - ^
 * Rammasun: 88% - Severe, widespread damage across several countries. $6.51 billion in damage and a grand total of 187 deaths significantly outshines the impact from last year's Utor, which was retired.
 * Matmo: 33% - Could've been a lot worse.
 * Matmo: 33% - Could've been a lot worse.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 00:05, July 26, 2014 (UTC)
 * PAGASA
 * Glenda: 100% - Damage bill is 1080% of the criteria, and rising.
 * All others: 0% - Did not meet the criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities.
 * All others: 0% - Did not meet the criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities.