Forum:2007 Atlantic hurricane season/September

98L.INVEST
That new wave out in the Atlantic has gained a lot of convection and is now an invest. In fact, this thing already looks close to a tropical depression. Bob rulz 12:51, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I wouldn't be surprised, looking at the models. The thing on top of the page had similar aspirations. And, it is SEPTEMBER. IP 14:02, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Look at it... isn't it beautiful? IP 14:11, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'm betting 40% chance for to become Gabrielle RoswellAtup 15:07, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You know what? I'd up the stakes about 15%. This guy is looking pretty good. IP 15:13, 1 September 2007 (UTC)

SHIPS puts it at hurricane, cat 1+ IP 18:08, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The last thing we need a Cape Verde party. Dean, Felix,... -- SkyFury 18:35, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Floater's been put up. And look at the GFDL model, a hurricane as well. Imagine what could happen if it goes up the East Coast, or maybe a Frances-esque track. This is an unfriendly bout of Westerners. IP 19:21, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Convection flaring close to the center of low pressure (there should be a word for that other than "center"). IP 19:25, 1 September 2007 (UTC)

HWRF goes eerily similar to Dean. IP 19:30, 1 September 2007 (UTC)


 * NOAA is stating a possible formation in the next 48 hours. Dean, then Felix, and Gabrielle? We shall find out in the next day or two. - Enzo Aquarius 01:39, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Looking awfully ominous right now. -- SkyFury 01:46, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Or maybe not, it's looking less organized. -- SkyFury 01:50, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It looks pretty terrible right now, but it's moving into an area of less shear, and the environment is a lot moister than when 94L came through, so I still think it has a chance to develop. undefinedundefined 02:19, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Because, you know, Felix already set to hit more or less the exact same area as Dean and at major hurricane strength wasn't bad enough news. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 06:10, 2 September 2007 (UTC)

Any hope of this heading for the Carolina Coast? We need the rain badly. Other IP 06:55, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It looks terrible right now. I don't see anything coming from this for a while. -- SkyFury 21:09, 2 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, too bad. (Other IP XD). But not really, considering what's happening over there near the Yucatan. IP 17:55, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Dissipated. IP 00:13, 4 September 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Off Georgia Coast
There's a low associated with a decaying frontal boundary, and could possibly develop into a topical depression. It's looks good at the moment, but we'll have to see if anything to worry about comes from this. undefinedundefined 17:22, 2 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Wow, that is impressive. I didn't even notice it (eyes automatically drawn to the major hurricane in the carib). I can see a TD out of this... at least a 99L. Cyclone1 (18:31 UTC -2/09/2007)
 * Hey, that's my house! That's MY...house! Don't be comin' into my house uninvited ;D. It's headed east though and could develop. Time will tell. -- SkyFury 21:12, 2 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Holy cow! CMC puts this as a major hurricane ploghing for New England! Is this impossible? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 23:18, 2 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Anything's possible in the tropics, but I wouldn't bet on it. -- SkyFury 01:43, 3 September 2007 (UTC)
 * -points to "interesting models" section below- Gotta love the CMC. Bob rulz 04:54, 3 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Looking good, and it has NOAA's attention as well, issuing it's little '48 hour development' notice. - Enzo Aquarius 15:55, 3 September 2007 (UTC)

Goddammit, this season just elevated itself to unheard of stature with double cat fives, and now this thing is rearing its ugly head (with a potential storm from 94L)! This is NOT (ok, it is) fun! IP 18:04, 3 September 2007 (UTC)

99L.INVEST
There is a floater up monitoring this system on the NHC, declaring it "Invest" but not 99L. IP 20:01, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * 99L confirmed on NRL. Most models develop this one (CMC puts it at what looks like a new world record). IP 20:26, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Looks better that it did 24 hours ago and better than 98L. -- SkyFury 21:14, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I say 55% Gabrielle, and 75% TD-7. IP 21:15, 3 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Looking very impressive! If that ridge builds, it should take whatever 99L becomes into the Mid Atlantic, or New England. Let's hope the ridge doesn't build. Cyclone1 (21:54 UTC -3/09/2007)


 * The ridge is probably building as we speak. Anyway, if CMC is anywhere near the truth, the Yankees might be wiped out once and for all! Woohoo! But the rest of Manhattan might be wiped out... Woohoo! Seriously, there's some risky things up there. IP 22:25, 3 September 2007 (UTC)

In a couple of days, we could see something but not before then I wouldn't think. -- SkyFury 23:18, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Who said it was going to happen fast? ; )  <font color="#000000">IP  23:24, 3 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The models are in. HWRF predicts a hurricane in a few days, w/ a depression soon and slow TS development. GFDL coming in soon. <font color="#000000">IP 00:23, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * GFDL as a moderate hurricane, keeping intensity over a few days. Both predict this thing to be HUGE. <font color="#000000">IP 00:26, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Some interesting models coming through, though what's most interesting is the one from LGEM, which puts it through central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico with a course towards Louisiana. :S - Enzo Aquarius 02:52, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Look at it now... I say 80% chance of what GFDL and HWRF say. They're never this in agreement. <font color="#000000">IP 10:30, 4 September 2007 (UTC)

If you look at the difference between yesterday and today, it's getting much better Organized. I say Depression at 11 PM Advisories, Tropical Storm by 4 PM Advisory on Wednesday, and Hurricane by the morning after.


 * Judging by the organization, if it gets Depression status, I don't think we'll have to wait long. I predict Depression status by either the 2 PM or 5 PM advisory - Enzo Aquarius 15:18, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't know about that but it could become a depression sometime tonight. -- SkyFury 16:33, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's not yet a depression, but look at it! The low's surrounded by convection now, all we have to do now is wait for the update <font color="#000000">IP 19:06, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Still saying it comes up in the 5 PM EDT update. - Enzo Aquarius 19:52, 4 September 2007 (UTC)

SH!T! The GFDL takes it right into my vacation house as a cat 2, then up the coast as a TS! <font color="#000000">IP 20:00, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Not yet guys, it's still only an INVEST. <font color="#000000">IP 21:01, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * THREE models take this into the mid-Atlantic/New england area as a major hurricane. CMC, GFDL, and NAM. The GFDL as a category three and the CMC and NAM as like category 6's. Cyclone1 (21:02 UTC -4/09/2007)


 * Dang this is taking awhile. :S - Enzo Aquarius 21:29, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Where do you get intensity from obscure models like NAM? Yeah, I really am scared of CMC's, it puts it at like, 850 mb right into my vacation home. The Outer Banks will be... What Outer Banks?! <font color="#000000">IP 21:33, 4 September 2007 (UTC)


 * This is starting to get the attention of people now (CNN was just talking about it now. Yes, I know, I watch CNN too much, it's the only American 24/7 news channel I get. :P) - Enzo Aquarius 00:09, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * OMG! 40% of models develop this into a hurricane making landfall on the Carolinas/New England, half of that 40% develop this into a major hurricane, and almost all of the remaining models develop this into at least a depression. Both Weather Underground and AccuWeather are watching this system closely, by the way. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:52, 5 September 2007 (UTC)

From the 2pm TWD: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED." Don't touch that dial! It's just like reality TV :D. -- SkyFury 18:19, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's looking like 96L now, the only difference is that the conditions are much more favorable (and the window is longer). <font color="#000000">IP  19:01, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Recon has found TS force winds within it........ Anung Mwka 20:10, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * TS Gabrielle at 5? GFDL says Cat 3 into North Carolina with a Cat 1 continuing up the coast thereafter. Will this be Ophelia v2.0, or a real disaster? 130.64.137.61 20:18, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The NHC is kidding themselves. This is a depression. <font color="#000000">IP 20:58, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'm thinking more like STD 07; NHC will most likely discount the TS winds they found, and it still is frontal looking. That being said, I expect it to form into S/TS Gabrielle in the next 12-24 hours. <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 21:00, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You know what's interesting? The NHC should take our (whole community) opinions, because since we have a vastly larger population of forecasters, and thus the majority is more often right. That being said, they're idiots (not really, but it's fun to say). I see no reason why they should discount the winds (they didn't in Ethel). <font color="#000000">IP 21:18, 5 September 2007 (UTC)

No. They have PhD's, we don't. That's a big difference. I think this storm is almost there, even though NHC didn't really hint at that. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable and I don't think this thing's going away. -- SkyFury 21:32, 5 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Plus, given all the flak the NHC took over naming Barry earlier this year, I couldn't really blame them for being careful with debatable upgrades - and that is what 99 is right now. A good case could probably be made right now either for upgrading or not upgrading. Since 99 is extremely unlikely to make landfall in the next 24 hours, it's specific designation is not a matter of great urgency.. --Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 21:48, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Calm down, I just like shredding the NHC when they didn't do anything wrong! Is that so wrong? Seriously though, I don't know what came over me then, I think it might have been my brother ("attention deficit" is my life). Not that PhD's can predict hurricanes (imagine the NHC, during Epsilon, shaking their PhD's like magic eight balls). It just really looks better than INVEST, especially now that convection clouds are moving over the low again. <font color="#000000">IP 22:08, 5 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yikes! Last time I checked, which was a few hours ago, 90% models predict at least depression, 80% for landfall, 70% for at least TS, 60% for hurricane at landfall, and 40% for major hurricane at landfall. That's not even the weird part, the storm is very favorable for developement, and it's not even tropical! 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:28, 6 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Very favorable? Conditions are awful right now. Cyclone1 (01:56 UTC -6/09/2007)

Awful? Actually, right now, yeah, they are, because the storm's being ripped to pieces! NHC is no longer considering tropical development. <font color="#000000">IP 10:29, 6 September 2007 (UTC)


 * My my, look at that. That's interesting. The frontal convection is separating from the low, and the low is developing it's own small patch of deep[ish] convection. <font color="#000000">IP 19:30, 6 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Looking as good as ever this morning. <font color="#000000">IP 10:41, 7 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Indeed, NOAA has issued a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement this morning (Got me excited :P). A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is being sent out this afternoon, plus it appears to be organizing more. This system may finally develop into something later today. - Enzo Aquarius 15:01, 7 September 2007 (UTC)


 * We could be looking at Gabby here guys. -- SkyFury 16:01, 7 September 2007 (UTC)

That's looking really good! Not to mention that conditions (and organization) have DEFINITELY improved. If recon gets Trop (>= depression) winds again, then that will be the end [beginning?] of that. <font color="#000000">IP 18:57, 7 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Still lingering there, could turn Tropical Depression at any time. - Enzo Aquarius 23:23, 7 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Slippy little bugger (see below). Should come out at either the 8 or 11 advisory. <font color="#000000">IP 23:37, 7 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Nothing at 8, let's see at 11. - Enzo Aquarius 00:05, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well it'd better develop soon, we need some more rain here in southern Ontario. In fact, we need about four inches more rain to replenish our soils before autumn. I just hope it doesn't become a repeat of JUAN or HORTENSE or HAZEL. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 00:29, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

There are so many humor books about Canada I've read that I pretty much associate Ontario with "consisting of Toronto and four square miles of actual farmland". Sorry about that. Seriously, I doubt it'll get that far over, and GFDL is predicting a hurricane, so I keep my prediction for the 11 pm advisory. <font color="#000000">IP 01:01, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle
And there she is! Not offical on the NHC yet, upgrade at 11. Skipping TD-7 status. Nice, third storm this year to do so. Cyclone1 (02:19 UTC -8/09/2007) Hmm, subtrop? I didn't really expect that. Cyclone1 (02:33 UTC -8/09/2007)
 * WOW i just went on to the Atlantic Hurricanne Page and saw SS Gabrielle i was not expecting to see gabrielle for a few days yet and i was thinking about going to bed !!!!! Jason Rees 02:51, 8 September 2007 (UTC)
 * She's finally here, though Gabrielle will probably only reach Tropical Storm status, being so close to the shore and so far from the Tropics. Expected to hit the Carolinas and Virginia, then move upshore. - Enzo Aquarius 03:23, 8 September 2007 (UTC)
 * "Expected to strengthen as she gains tropical characteristics". I still say a hurricane from this, because I also expect rapid development into a tropical storm, but there's a good chance it won't happen. She's also looking rather pretty (for an SS) today. <font color="#000000">IP 11:16, 8 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Heh, sorry to say, but judging by the distance from shore (one day to landfall), I can't see much development. I give it 95% Tropical Storm, 5% Cat. 1 Hurricane. - Enzo Aquarius 16:00, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

I don't think it'll make too much stir at "landfall", just barely scraping by the Outer Banks, so I up hurricane by about 20%. <font color="#000000">IP 16:09, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

Over last 4 hours, she has organized quite a bit. If this organization trend continues, and stays off coast, Nova Scotia may be in for a cat 1-2 landfall.


 * Don't think so. Shear's supposed to increase in a couple of days. We might see a tropical landfall in North Carolina though. I think they'll welcome the rain. -- SkyFury 17:33, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * If we see a hurricane, it will be a 75-80 mph cat 1 for one or two advisories after NC, nothing big. <font color="#000000">IP 19:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Gabrielle
Just upgraded to Tropical.. apparently, she has acquired enough tropical characteristics. What model was it that forecasted STS, then TS, and then a hurricane landfall from New England to Nova Scotia?


 * The one that was wrong. Hurricane chance listed as zero. I think so to; the way I see it, an exposed low TS is not going to make hurricane. <font color="#000000">IP 21:12, 8 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Looking better. Convection getting closer to the center. Cyclone1 (22:53 UTC -8/09/2007)


 * Low no longer exposed. Hmph. Still say it ain't makin' fifty five knots (I'm wrong, aren't I?). <font color="#000000">IP 23:10, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I don't think you are. I think 45-50's more accurate. Gabby could bring some much needed rain to North Carolina. -- SkyFury 23:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

True. When I went to NC a couple weeks ago, there was ONE thunderstorm (usually more like 3 or 4) and it was REALLY dry, with standing water disappearing MUCH quicker than usual. I'm not sure if the Outer Banks are too indicative of the rest of NC, but that's evidence. Before we got 2 inches of rain up here from the Midwest Flooding of 2007 (as Wikipedia so quaintly calls it), Dulles airport had dust flying all over the place. Agh, please, I'll try not to tell you about the trip, even though it was probably... No, I must keep myself sane. Those 777s though, they're really something, eh? <font color="#000000">IP 23:34, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Although not under the best of circumstances, atleast the southeastern states will get rain for a day. Now, in Ontario and the northeastern/central states there is line of storms . If Gabrielle follows on her course, except north towards Nova Scotia, she may interact with this system line. - Enzo Aquarius 00:33, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * NHC is saying Gabrielle will recurve around the Atlantic ridge. It didn't say anything about the frontal system. They did say that Gabrielle looks like it's getting better organized. -- SkyFury 04:22, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Wow, that is by far the weirdest looking tropical storm ever, It's basically a mesoscale vortex. Just one extremely small ball of convection. Cyclone1 (04:53 UTC -9/09/2007)


 * I was about to say, looks a lot like an ordinary MCS. Looks like my place in Ocracoke won't get the brunt of the storm, just a lot of rain. Hurricane chances are gone again. I say POSSIBLY reaches 50 kts before being extratrop. Phew, though. <font color="#000000">IP 15:58, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Landfall near Cape Lookout National Seashore of North Carolina. - Enzo Aquarius 16:42, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Basically crossed right at the cape but the rough stuff will be a little longer comin'. Doesn't look like the rain will get very far but some is better than none. -- SkyFury 17:17, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yep, landfall was at 1145 EDT, official as of a recent NHC update. This might be a good thing more than a bad thing. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 17:19, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * That was freakin' cool! The low just ripped right out under the convection and made second landfall on NC, and now it's just like there's a low attached to some sort of large thunderstorm complex! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:03, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's been downgraded to a depression. How strange, it's lost its characteristic cyclonic shape, and it now looks like an average ball of convection. Why is NHC still calling this storm tropical? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:08, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Im surprised they are still even monistoring the storm i thought they would off sent out their last advisory and sent it on its way to the HPC and the CHC Jason Rees 09:19, 11 September 2007 (UTC)

UPDATE Nhc has issued its last Advisory now but this is from the CHCs lateset advisory which made me smile after a BORING dAY at college "NHC ISSUED ITS LAST BULLETIN ON GABRIELLE AT 15Z SO WE CARRY IT NOW AS A POST-TROPICAL ENTITY... NOT BECAUSE IT HAS UNDERGONE A CLASSIC ET... BUT BECAUSE IT IS A REMNANT STUBBORN TROPICAL ENTITY THAT JUST WONT GO AWAY." 18:33, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Jason could you link me to that? Yeah, Gabby's bit the dust. And as she walked through the valley in the shadow of death, she smiled with joy and thanked it for the shade. ;D. Actually, I think of all storms, Ivan fits it best (although a he). The storm of 1899 as well. -- SkyFury 23:51, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * (Driveby comment) Here's the link. 81.159.61.95 01:22, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * This is (mostly) great. We just had, like, 3 inches of rain from a larger low that Gabrielle is merging with. I'm still worried about Placentia Bay, which definately does not need any more damage after what Chantal did. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:09, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

AoI: Off the coast of Africa
There's probably some reason why no-one's put this up yet, but I can't stand it. There's a low off the coast, and a convective, multiple-area tropical wave. The models say "yes", NHC says "what", and I'm going with my eyes and the models. Opinions? <font color="#000000">IP 23:13, 7 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Our eyes have been on this darn 99L.Invest system. :P But yes, this system does look interesting. Let's give it a couple of days or so and see what happens. - Enzo Aquarius 23:27, 7 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Yeah, 99L is a slippy little bugger. I'm putting INVEST development Sunday morning, though that might be a little early. <font color="#000000">IP 23:36, 7 September 2007 (UTC)
 * With Gabrielle out, again everyone forgets our little AoI friend, who is about three times more likely to become a hurricane. Although Gabby does have some really nice looking TROPICAL features... Anyway, this guy is getting more convection from another thunderstorm (MCS perhaps? Probably not) moving off the coast. It looks much worse today, but still, I think this guy has potential. It's nothing like Dean-wave, or Felix-wave, but it does have potential. <font color="#000000">IP 11:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * EVERYBODY PAY ATTENTION! LOOK AT WHAT'S OFF THE COAST! For whatever the reason, it seems that the thunderstorm off the coast has developed an associated low, and it already looks like a depression. It's kinda far north, and I'm not so sure it's associated with this one. However, this one looks pretty awesome as well. Both of them are supposed to curve north pretty soon after development. Opinions? <font color="#000000">IP 14:13, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

First system is up on the TWO, and it doesn't seem there's anything stopping it. <font color="#000000">IP 14:18, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * What's wrong with the NRL? there are now two areas potential for development and they didn't upgrade either even just a mere invest??? RoswellAtup 15:27, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * They probably won't catch up for a couple of days, because the systems are still developing, but that one due east of the Cape Verde's looks extraordinarily ominous to me... <font color="#000000">IP 15:39, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * For once ;), I'm inclined to agree will IP for the time being. While the thing in the middle of the ocean may eventually develop, that thing off Dakar is quite impressive. There is noted cyclonic turning. It's small and just because it looks tropical doesn't mean it has an LLCC, but it looks healthy. Stuff very near Africa is prone to falling apart suddenly so I urge caution there. The wave in the TWO could also very well develop, considering the kind of luck similar waves have had this season. -- SkyFury 17:43, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Weaker now, and kind of weird-looking, but almost merging with the other system, which is also looking ominous. It's not like a few hours ago, but it is definitely a threat. If they merge, it can't be good. And I know I tend to over-exaggerate, but the one time I didn't, it was an under-estimate (Felix: I predict Cat 3 max, Cat 2 min, Cat 2 more likely, though none of us predicted cat 5). Usually what I say is more enthusiastic than what I think, so take about 10-40% off of most of my predictions, and you should have a somewhat more reasonable answer. Anyway, did anyone else note that there was some turning in that thing around 7N, and that if it forms, it will break Ivan's record (not that it will)? This is almost as good looking as Dean's wave (ah... a pulse of almost-nostalgia running through me... the crowded third world streets buzzing with a sense of excitement, the luxury hotel emanating with style and comfort, the tropical beach, swaying with the wind, and somewhere, off in the distance, something wicked is stirring... Zanzibar, August 24th, 2007... What a wonderful trip that was, especially after the safari. Sorry for that, it was just that it was one of my top ten, the other nine having already happened on the same trip). <font color="#000000">IP 19:19, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * (Jesus, pass the bong would ya ;D. LOL.) So if you predict a 40 percent chance of X then I shouldn't hold my breath? -- SkyFury 19:49, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

If I predict forty percent chance of X then X is going to hell in a hand basket ; ). But really, if it's under 50% you can most likely say it's PROBABLY not going to happen. If I say zero percent chance, however, then it will become a category four hurricane. I'd say that there's a pretty large error margin, since I'm newish, but I have been right a few times (Chantal, Dean, Gabby from this this morning to now, Barry, all the E-Pacs) and wrong a few times (everything else this year besides a few W-Pac systems), and a lot of the times I have no idea what I'm saying (those times that I was wrong).

Back on topic, I'll put up percents now: 60% tropical eventually (don't take too much more than 10 away from that), 5% dissipation in a few hours, the rest dissipation slowly. <font color="#000000">IP 21:20, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Please take more than 10% off now. I saw the Atlantic wide view picture. <font color="#000000">IP 21:29, 8 September 2007 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Number's not up yet, but it's officially recognized by NHC with it's own little floater. BTW, this is the low feature that came off of Dakar yesterday, which I think got more energy from the other wave. Looks like advisory one Gabby. Opinions? <font color="#000000">IP 13:16, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Sorry, looking at the wrong storm. This is the OTHER wave, the one off of Dakar is still looking great (Look at the storm below it on 10N, that's brilliant!). <font color="#000000">IP 13:19, 9 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Yep, this is the one west southwest of the CV islands. Cyclone1 (14:15 UTC -9/09/2007)


 * It has been a pretty poor show for the Cape Verde activity this year and last year... The Cape Verde invests are lame, and probably this one would go poof anytime... RoswellAtup 14:02, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Pretty poor? The only two serious waves we've had turned into monsters! It's not poor, it's just SLOW <font color="#000000">IP 15:56, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Judging by what has happened this year, I have to agree with IP. From its location, it could turn into anything or do anything. Not noticed by the NHC yet though. - Enzo Aquarius 16:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Neither is 92L, but this one does have a floater labeled "Invest", I believe it's floater 2. I say nothing today, possibly something tomorrow. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 17:25, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Um, not sure exactly what Roswell's smoking but it's not healthy whatever it is. It's not exactly been 1995 a'la the Parade of Storms but the two waves that did spin out had a combined ACE of 50.3 and killed 175 people. And that's just the numbers, not counting how many records they set. This wave is not impressing me a whole lot but it bears watching seeing what's already happened. (This invest is up on NHC floaters, by the way, though not numbered. )-- SkyFury 17:29, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

I just said that's where it was (even though you gave a link)! I'd have to go with Eric on almost all points (ok, all of them) on this one, as I said before, it's just SLOW. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 17:32, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Now numbered. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Perhaps I should add that I have yet to be impressed by this system in any way. -- SkyFury 21:31, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You said that already. Organization should develop in a couple hundred miles, I would think it will form significantly to the west of the area Felix and Dean did. I'm going with SHIPS and the NHC, slow development over the next few days. Might become a Gulf storm <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:40, 9 September 2007 (UTC)


 * And why do you all say you "have" to agree with me? Is siding with me some kind of self-induced mental torture? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:42, 9 September 2007 (UTC)

Looks great! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:47, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Judging by the looks of this, it could form into something. It still has quite a ways to go, thus I personally see this one forming into something. - Enzo Aquarius 02:34, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Holy heat-engine! Models say it's going to become a cat 1-2 hurricane and turn towards the Eastern Seaboard! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:38, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's starting to look as good as Dean-wave and Felix-wave... I think we might have Humberto. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:42, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's caught the eye of the NHC and various news stations. We may have something here! - Enzo Aquarius 15:21, 10 September 2007 (UTC)

HWRF as a major 'cane towards the Eastern Seaboard. Definitely not what we need, especially as there is NOTHING up there in its way. Max cat 4 (135 mph), min cat 2 (110 mph). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:55, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * TCFA. Significant turning and it looks almost like a depression could form today or tomorrow. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:59, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Don't worry too much, looking at the models, I only give it a 5% chance of a Category 5 landfall on the US. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 21:20, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * That was scary man. Don't do that. Ever. Who said that that was going to happen anyway? (season now has 7/8 landfalls) <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 21:45, 10 September 2007 (UTC)


 * If this forms into anything, it could go anywhere. :S - Enzo Aquarius 00:36, 11 September 2007 (UTC)

It will form into something. Look at it! That's REALLY well defined! Not to mention that the next wave is really getting pumped as well. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:39, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Indeed, I say Tropical Depression status by late afternoon/early evening tomorrow. - Enzo Aquarius 00:45, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I'd say Thursday or Friday is more likely. -- SkyFury 13:33, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * All intensity models I can find turn this into a major hurricane, with HWRF putting it at Cat 4 near the end of the model run. And it's heading towards the East Coast, with VERY little potential inhibiting factors. This is starting to sound a LOT scarier than Gabby did... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:54, 11 September 2007 (UTC)

Man, it's gonna be nice when we get a hurricane that doesn't explode into a category five... Cyclone1 (21:30 UTC -11/09/2007)


 * Don't say that man. Do NOT say that. Please, please, PLEASE. This thing has the potential. Don't get it angry.
 * Not to mention that it's looking better than Felix-wave prior to depressionizing, and the convection just has to move over the low (scary music medley plays, mix of horror-tension, Space Odyssey opening [Also sprach Zarathrusta], etc.). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk  22:33, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this storm appears to have become noticably better organized since this morning. I don't think we have too much to worry about in the way of bad juju, IP. This thing could easily recurve out to sea through a weakness in the ridge. Or hell, it could not develop at all. The tropics are a fickle place. By the way, Category 4 sounds a little agressive but yes it would be nice to have a non-Category 5 hurricane for a change. -- SkyFury 23:29, 11 September 2007 (UTC)


 * You upset the storm with your talk of "no bad Juju"! You must praise the storm to save Georgia!
 * Yeah, it does sound nice, but this thing could be rearing it's ugly head as a category four next week, and it has a damn good chance of landfall seeing as the ridging doesn't seem prone to letting up anytime soon. I'll put up more percentages (look at it man! It's like, on steroids! It's like Felix wave, but with more definition!) now, 5% just goes poof, 10% it only makes it to a tropical storm, 30% it makes it up to a cat 1/2 hurricane then dies, the rest of my money on this thing making it to major status (that's 55%, and 85% hurricane). <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:38, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The models are having organization issues (these are issues that occur when a storm is beginning to organize; the models usually significantly weaken their predictions). The HWRF model does not have a defined mini-grid though, so that's an excuse for not providing correct information. GFDL has had this problem this morning. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:49, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's now looking good on the Satellite, but how come th models don't make this a hurricane? The models are even making this thing dissipate in 5 days... RoswellAtup 01:12, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * This thing is a depression now, no doubt about it. Look at the goddamn thing! It's a ball of rotating convection! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:28, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * If this thing doesn't mysteriously self-destruct, advisories could be initiated as early as 11 am, the next advisory period. I can't see there being much to stop it from at least getting a name. -- SkyFury 12:59, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Eight
NRL's got a listing for 08L.NONAME up, looks like we're finally getting our depression! --Patteroast 13:26, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Say hello to Tropical Depression Eight! Predictions state this could turn into Humberto (or Ingrid now) in short time. - Enzo Aquarius 14:42, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Okay, this one's going to be an interesting one indeed. The current predictions put it anywhere. GFDL puts it just north of Dean/Felix's track (Could be their younger brother/sister), others put it towards the north which would hit the north-eastern coast of the States (gak! Could affect me). The thing that concerns me is, if it stays on it's predicted course from the NHC, it would go between Florida and Cuba which would present an opportunity to strengthen without interruption. - Enzo Aquarius 15:03, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh hell! Two! It appears we are having a September-like outburst. While this one could become a hurricane, I don't see it getting stronger than 80 knots. Ah, September. Makes school so much more bearable. -- SkyFury 16:24, 12 September 2007 (UTC)
 * For a hurricane in that general area in 2007, "I don't see it getting any stronger than..." seems like just about the right way to get a category 5--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 16:38, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Look, I'm sorry about the cat 5 prediction, ok? Just...remain calm, and let's hope it doesn't create a need to bump up that 5% any higher. If this thing develops at the rate it is now, we could have yet another record breaker on our hands :S . 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 17:12, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Don't say that either! :-p. Don't piss off the hurricane by telling what it can't do, and don't encourage it either :-p.--Guillaume Hébert-Jodoin 17:28, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * "Don't feed the hurricanes, the water does it alone." :P - Enzo Aquarius 18:07, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Thank you, Enzo. It's not even forecast to enter the Caribbean. -- SkyFury 18:25, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

Didn't we just tell you not to say things like that?! LOL, but this thing could become a monster; you never know. This is getting scary, with potential Death-Allison (imagine if Humberto took the same track! EEK!), and something that could rip any of the few most vulnerable areas to shreds. There is no doubt about it though, THIS is what September is all about. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 18:57, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Um, IP, am I going to start having to ration your alchohol consumption? NHC says shear will increase at the end of the forecast period. None of us are saying it doesn't have the potential to be a destructive hurricane, just that it's unlikely. I do believe in some form of jinx but you guys are taking it a little too seriously. -- SkyFury 21:23, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The shear is forecasted to increase at the end of the period, so it's probably going to weaken before it strengthens again. However, there's still a lot of time before it approaches any landmasses. I doubt the strong shear will last all the way to wherever it ends up going. As long as it pulls out of that phase, who knows what will happen? I find a cat 5 very unlikely, but you never know. Bob rulz 22:38, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Sorry, are we talking about 08L? LOL, I was thinking of Humberto ^_^0... I predict a cap around category 4, and a min around category 1, though I don't think it's going to be either. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 22:45, 12 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I am going to say, if it stays on it's present course, it'll reach category 3. - Enzo Aquarius 23:00, 12 September 2007 (UTC)

The models are on crack. They kill this system. The only inhibiting factor is shear, which is not enough to rip this system apart. I hate it when, as the NHC says, "the models have slim or no chance of being correct" because they're FED INCORRECT INFORMATION. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 00:27, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Oh dear. Neither the models nor the NHC is giving an exact enough forecast about where it will go and how strong it will be. Notice most of the models are like, a day old, so they might not be accurate. The good news is, shear is expected to persist as it moves near the Greater Antillies. After that, we don't know. In fact, pretty much the entire US Atlanticish coast (Texas to Maine) might be within its future error cone. Let's hope this isn't a Floyd, like the historical models suggest, and hope this doesn't hit as a hurricane on on near Miami City, as future extendation of the track suggests. What's weird is, all the Cape Verde systems so far this year have veered south of its predicted track. If this storm veers south of say, Miami, it could hit Tampa, New Orleans, Houston...ugh is makes me scared to think about what will happen if that is the case, please forbid. Also, I don't think our comments will affect the storm's future too much, what, is it going to bring its eye over the servers and look at our posts? Let's hope the models, which are outdated, are at least partially correct in weakening this storm. 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 01:03, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * SHHH! It's watching us now!
 * I like to encourage superstition because I think it's funny that people believe in that stuff. It's all in good fun. And although that's a very dangerous thought, it could be true... <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:08, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

Is it just me, or has the NHC not put up an 8 PM or 11 PM update for TD 8? - Enzo Aquarius 02:52, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * The 11pm update is there. And of course there's no 8pm update; they only issue intermediate advisories if there's watches or warnings in effect. Either way, this storm looks better than when I last looked at it; it's now a single round ball of convection and it no longer looks like the center is displaced. I wouldn't be surprised to see this as a tropical storm at 5am. Bob rulz 07:55, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's six forty nine and the fifth advisory still isn't up. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 10:28, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

In case anyone missed it, the GFDL now takes this into the Caribbean. *Gulp* 130.64.137.61 14:15, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I saw the 5am advisory on time. I don't know what all your guys' problems are. Either way it's still a depression, although they admit that it may have briefly been a tropical storm. And don't bet on it going into the Caribbean. Bob rulz 14:44, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Wow, this thing looks dead. If this continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see no tropical depression at 5pm. Bob rulz 15:00, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It almost made it yesterday but now it looks less organized. The window of opportunity might have closed. -- SkyFury 15:57, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * I was wondering if any of you noticed how unexcited I was at the fourth advisory. I've thought it's dead since when I woke up this morning. Lack of TS now affirms it. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:09, 13 September 2007 (UTC)

This is funny. You know what, I'll bet Cyclone1's last remaining ten bucks that this makes Ingrid, but not necessarily hurricane. The reason is, the hurricane killer says it won't die by the end of the model run. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 19:28, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Judging by NHC, we may have Tropical Storm Ingrid by the 11 PM EDT update. However, it states it'll be a depression again in 5 days. :S - Enzo Aquarius 21:08, 13 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It looks noticeably better organized. NHC said a hurricane hunter's going in to snoop around. Convection coverage and organization have improved. This one could yet pull it off. -- SkyFury 00:00, 14 September 2007 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Ingrid
Mostly official. Unless this for some reason pulls a Pilar, we have Ingrid. Cyclone1 (01:13 UTC -14/09/2007)
 * (BTW, my last remaining ten bucks? LMAO!) Cyclone1 (01:15 UTC -14/09/2007) 01:15, 14 September 2007 (UTC)
 * Recon also reported a pressure of 987 mbar... I think they've been inhaling too many clouds ;) <font color="#FFD700">undefinedundefined 01:18, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Hey, at least you get your money back! 987?! Holy freak! That's hurricane pressure! That's impossible! Like Humberto! <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:40, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Wow, this is definitely a great season for this wiki to restart in, and you thought this system was dead, Bob. ;) - Enzo Aquarius 01:54, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Well, it certainly looked dead last night. Bob rulz 05:00, 14 September 2007 (UTC)

Tis up and official. We have Tropical Storm Ingrid! - Enzo Aquarius 03:46, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Most models put Ingrid going in a northern direction, especially the BAMD (which puts it making a loop towards Europe). GFDL's track is extremely erratic. :S - Enzo Aquarius 14:54, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * It's been 18 years since an 'I' storm did not strengthen into a hurricane. That streak may finally end this year. Twelve straight 'I' storms. Isidore, Iris, Isidore, Ivan, Irene, Isaac, Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Irene and Isaac. Among those, there were two Category 1s, 4 Category 2s, 2 Category 3s, 2 Category 4's and two reached Category 5 strenght. That's a pretty remarkable run. -- SkyFury 23:43, 14 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Eye for coincidences eh? <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 01:06, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * There's still lots of time for Ingrid to develop, we shall see. :) - Enzo Aquarius 02:22, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

More updates. NHC's track has gone further north, which would make Ingrid pass Bermuda to the east and seem to pose no threat to any main land. The CMC has the most southern-path prediction, with Ingrid going between Florida and Cuba. GFDL's track now has Ingrid going for a Florida landfall. All the other models keep this thing from a landfall. - Enzo Aquarius 04:29, 15 September 2007 (UTC)


 * HWRF still INSISTS on redevelopment after almost-dissipation. <font color="#000000">IP <font color="#ff6347">Talk 13:33, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

Ingrid's back down to a depression, but now NHC has her back on course for the USA's eastern coast. - Enzo Aquarius 15:24, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
 * SHIPS now calling for it to restrengthen after lingering as a depression for three days. 130.64.137.61 16:13, 15 September 2007 (UTC)
 * I think it has to go through Hell to do it though. It'll have to pull an Irene. -- SkyFury 18:40, 15 September 2007 (UTC)

Looking at the 11 PM EDT update, I think the NHC is stumped. After the fourth day, they seem to be scratching their heads. - Enzo Aquarius 03:28, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Oooh! Nice convective burst! (Why the hell am I still awake?) -- SkyFury 07:05, 16 September 2007 (UTC)


 * Still a depression at 11am, which is a bit surprsing. Pasch did mention something in the discussion. " THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL EVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT INDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH. HOWEVER THE NEXT NHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING." That's interesting... Is that what you call pulling an Irene? Cyclone1 (14:41 UTC -16/09/2007)
 * GFDL has it up to Cat 1 by the end of the model run while the HWRF makes it a moderate-strength TS. 130.64.137.61 15:42, 16 September 2007 (UTC)

AoI:Central Northern north Atlantic
Has anyone noticed that huge extratropical low in the north atlantic between Newfoundland and Portugal? It's effectively splitting the Bermuda High in two! Some models predict it to dissipate, others merge it with Gabrielle, and a few even bring it to near-hurricane strength and send it ploughing for the British Isles! It looks like a spiraling frontal system that just came off the coast of Canada, and in its centre is what looks like an extratropical eye. Either way, this could be a storm to watch for Europe. Any thoughts? 2007Astro&#39;sHurricane 16:30, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * An interesting Extra-trop, to be sure, but there isn't too much convection near the center, and I really doubt tropical development. But yes, this does look like a [potential] threat to Europe. I've been tracking this for several days, and only now does it look like anything. <font color="#000000">IP 16:41, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * And in my unprofessional opinion it will stay an extratropical storm. Impressive nonetheless. -- SkyFury 17:35, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * That's exactly what I said! And you say you never agree with me ; )  <font color="#000000">IP  19:21, 8 September 2007 (UTC)


 * There's also this darn storm line going through the States and Canada right now that'll eventually enter the Atlantic. May see some interesting interaction with this low, the storm system and Gabrielle. - Enzo Aquarius 00:36, 9 September 2007 (UTC)