User blog:Suprise11/My August North Atlantic Hurricane Season Prediction


 * So far this AHS, there have been 7 named storms, with none of them becoming hurricanes. I believe this is a record (beating 2002), unless someone tells me otherwise. Climatology suggests that the season is ahead on named storms, but behind on hurricanes. My prediction for this season includes:


 * 15-17 named storms


 * 6-8 hurricanes


 * 3-5 major hurricanes


 * ACE of 120-150


 * If I had to make an exact prediction, I would say 16/7/4 (slightly below 2008). I also think that the season will end the "hurricane drought" in the United States that has been in place since Ike. My U.S. impact predictions are below:


 * 4-5 named storms make landfall


 * Out of the 4-5, 2-3 are hurricanes


 * I don't predict major hurricane landfalls in my seasonal predictions because I believe there isn't a whole lot of skill involved (I might change my mind when I learn more about meteorology/climatology). I do believe there is potential for major hurricane impacts though. Why I made the prediction:


 * Period of hyperactivity since 1995


 * Neutral ENSO, or weak La Nina


 * The way the season has been going so far


 * I'm not as confident in my prediction for this basin as I am for the Eastern Pacific. Everyone on here needs to wait and see what will happen during the season. If anyone on here has any questions, I'll likely answer them.