Forum:2013 Atlantic hurricane season

Only June 01 2013 00:00:00 UTC until the Atlantic hurricane season starts...

Future start
Coming in slightly more than one month :D.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:41, April 23, 2013 (UTC)

Could be earlier than that Isaac as the Euro,cmc and Gfs are hinting and actually showing sub tropical storm Andrea near the Florida coast in a week.even though is not likely it could very well happen.Allanjeffs 14:58, April 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * Looks kinda interesting, if this happens, it would be the second straight year with pre-season activity, like 2007-2008. While I think it'll be a while until we see Andrea, it's not out of the question we could see pre-season activity. No invests thus far this year; the last two seasons had some pre-season invests, including one that almost developed in early February last year. Ryan1000 15:18, April 26, 2013 (UTC)
 * I spy with my little eye...a blob in the GOM. This might have a chance if it doesn't crash into Florida. Ryan1000 12:56, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * That it would crash it would I think after it cross Florida it may have a chance.Allanjeffs 16:42, May 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Meh, it's dead. Andrea will come later on. Ryan1000 18:12, May 2, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan right now after Crossing Florida it looks the best it ever have if wasn`t for the front coming we may actually get something.Allanjeffs 20:34, May 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, because of the front, I don't see much from this. The weather pattern this year is odd, with record heat, rain, and even snow in May, but I really don't know what the hurricane season will have in this ENSO-neutral season. The jetstream is in an odd position in the central U.S, but I don't know what this will mean for U.S. landfalls or impacts as 2013 progresses. 2005 was also ENSO-neutral, but that year had perfect conditions year round; it just didn't stop. I doubt 2013 will be like 2005, but it's not impossible. Ryan1000 15:54, May 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * The Atlantic hurricane season has begun! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:09, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 5and a half ours for me for the season to start.Allanjeffs 00:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Betting pools
Atlantic and East Pacific. We have some new sections this year, and a modification for the pressure section for ranges of pressures instead of specific numbers. Also, the Hall of Fame is open, in case anyone wants to put their thoughts there. Ryan1000 22:15, September 27, 2012 (UTC)

June
Starting this...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  01:07, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

Aoi: Southeast of Cape Verde
One of the best waves I've ever seen at this time of the year. It deserves to be a Aoi.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * It's in the Central Atlantic now, but near 0% on the TWO; it won't develop in the next few days. However, in a week's time, when this moves into the Western Caribbean/EPac, things could get very interesting with this wave. Ryan1000 19:11, June 6, 2013 (UTC)

92L.INVEST
Per Yqt, it's an invest.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:33, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * It looks crazy. Really nice deep convection despite the shear. Makes Andrea look extratropical. Sucks it's only 0% right now. Yqt1001 (talk) 19:34, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * It'll probrably get going once it reaches the Caribbean, but not right this moment. I have to admit though, it looks nice on sattelite imagery. Ryan1000 19:36, June 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Base on Ascat it looks like it is ts Barry,but I believe the NHC is not going to upgrade it because its not close to landmasses right now.Allanjeffs 19:55, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * The modles are largely unimpressed with 92L, but they take it on a general path to the west-northwest passing over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, North of Hispaniola and into the Bahamas. By the point it reaches the Bahamas this could develop into Barry, but most of them kill it in 48 hours time as of now. Ryan1000 22:17, June 6, 2013 (UTC)

Shear destroyed 92L already. :P Yqt1001 (talk) 23:17, June 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Surprise, 92L's at 10%. Isaac829 E-Mail  01:12, June 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not quite, Yqt, it still has a chance. Ryan1000 02:00, June 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * No is gone imo it was ts but was overlook because of Andrea.Allanjeffs 03:22, June 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Down to near 0%. Upper-level winds are going to destroy 92L before it even reaches the Caribbean. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:30, June 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * None of the reliable models show development of this in the near-future, but it could develop later on if conditions lighten up. Andrea's pretty much dead anyways, rainfall will affect the east coast over the next few days. Ryan1000 15:30, June 7, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Remnants of Barbara
It might reform...-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

90L.INVEST
Also an invest.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  03:03, June 1, 2013 (UTC)

10% by the NHC. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Allanjeffs 05:33, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * Dammit! I was about to post that! XD, beat me by seconds. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  05:35, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * Isn't this the remnants of Barbara? Edit: Yes it is, so why do we have a section for the AOI of Barbara remnants and the invest? :P Yqt1001 (talk) 05:36, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * :P sorry hurricane spin maybe next.Allanjeffs 08:32, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * I have doubts that we'll see Barbara make a comeback, but it' s possible nontheless. Nothing else to really watch. The two rescent invests in the NIO were duds. This may be the only thing to watch for the time being. Ryan1000 12:50, June 1, 2013 (UTC)
 * It may be Andrea not Barbara,Ryan the circulation of Barbara was killed.Allanjeffs 17:27, June 1, 2013 (UTC)


 * 0% its down and out.Allanjeffs 00:25, June 2, 2013 (UTC)

Aoi: Northwest Caribbean
Back up to 10% now. It is over the northwestern Caribbean. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:57, June 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * I know, it would be Andrea Allan, but what I meant was I doubt the remnants of Barbara will redevelop either way. It's over a hostile environment and NHC doesn't see much coming from this. Neither do most of the models. The rest of the world is also pretty quiet for the time being. Ryan1000 15:26, June 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Oh okay Ryan bte 90L this is a new AOI it will be declare 91L pretty soon so we should make a new heading I am talking about the aoi in the NW Caribbean.Allanjeffs 21:10, June 2, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 20% 91L would be pretty soon with us.Allanjeffs 00:29, June 3, 2013 (UTC)

91L.INVEST
Yes, 91L! Basically the remnants of Barbara + a remnant of a front + monsoonal gyre gives us this 20% invest. Yqt1001 (talk) 00:47, June 3, 2013 (UTC)

The remnants of Barbara were 90L and they came ashore to Mexico.Allanjeffs 01:16, June 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yeah, this is a different system altogether. I wouldn't expect more than a minimal TS from this, but some models are hyper enough to bring this up to a hurricane before hitting Florida. I doubt that will happen though. Some of the models even take this west to Mexico. Reminds me a bit of Debby last year and her initial track forecast to Texas from the Euro, but GFS took it to Florida and that's where she really went. Very interesting, and the season has barely begun. Ryan1000 17:20, June 3, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 30%. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  23:51, June 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Woo, it actually looks a lot better now. Andrea could very well come from this. Ryan1000 00:02, June 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * Orange it is would probably be a td or Andrea hopefully want to tach the first name of the list the Eastern Pacific is ahead of us and I hate that fact lol.Allanjeffs 17:47, June 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * 40% it is we may see Andrea tomorrow guys.Allanjeffs 17:47, June 4, 2013 (UTC)
 * I'm not surprised EPac is ahead, for this time of year, it's typical. And yes, now 40% and we could very well see Andrea soon. Ryan1000 21:08, June 4, 2013 (UTC)


 * A lot better organized as of 1am, and would not be surprised if this got bumped up to 50% or pherhaps red by 2am TWO. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  04:48, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * We may get td 1 today and ts Andrea soon after.Allanjeffs 12:57, June 5, 2013 (UTC)

Recon is flying into it soon. Will be interesting to see what it finds. Yqt1001 (talk) 16:26, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * 60%! First code red of 2013 ATL! Recon is getting very close to the supposed center. Let's see what they find. Yqt1001 (talk) 19:35, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope it forms!-- Isaac829 E-Mail  19:39, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * The game is about to begin with td 1 or ts Andrea.Allanjeffs 19:42, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * If classified is going straight to Andrea.AL, 91, 2013060518,, BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, DB,.Allanjeffs 20:00, June 5, 2013 (UTC)

Hilariously, this system is poorly organized and the enviornmental conditions are not conductive for significant development. I believe this invest might become a tropical depression and nothing more. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:26, June 5, 2013 (UTC)

Andrew its impossible that they classified iy as a td now because they already found winds of ts they would probably go 40 or 45 its going straight to Andrea.Allanjeffs 21:29, June 5, 2013 (UTC)

We have Andrea as expect-AL, 01, 2013060518,, BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 120, 0, 0, 1010, 250, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M, the first of the season.21:29, June 5, 2013 (UTC)Allanjeffs

Tropical Storm Andrea
She is here. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EAST- CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS FINDING...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WILL INITIATE ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN Allanjeffs 21:33, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * 1-0-0 Recon found a very broad center of circulation. Clearly only named at this time because of its proximity to land. Yqt1001 (talk) 21:38, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not really it says a well-defined circulation if it was close to land or not it would still have been name,btw I have seen worse ts being named like Danny and Henri in 2009 and Jose in 2011 and they were not close to land.Allanjeffs 21:49, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Fcst/advisory is out. 35 kt, 1002 mbar. --HurricaneMaker99 21:59, June 5, 2013 (UTC)
 * Welcome to the (official) start of the 2013 season! I don't expect Andrea to do much, Florida will reccieve some welcome rainfall but this won't be anything severe. Pretty early start to the 2013 season, but we likely have worse to come. This is also the first tropical storm Andrea to exist (the 2007 Andrea was subtropical). Ryan1000 01:38, June 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * Up to 45mph might become a 60 or 65mph ts if it continues at this pace.Allanjeffs 07:03, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Up to 60mph looks like I was correct with these system.Allanjeffs 09:07, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Up to 65mph it was possible she was a 70mph or 75 when she looks her best.Allanjeffs 19:03, June 6, 2013 (UTC)
 * Not gonna get stronger; she will likely only be a re-Alberto (2006) for the region and not cause too many problems. She spawned some tornadoes but they didn't do any serious damage. Andrea almost became a hurricane though; I acknowledge her for that. Ryan1000 19:11, June 6, 2013 (UTC)

Well, I did not expect this to happen. Anyway, most of the rain is to the north of Andrea's center. This means Georgia is going to have a wet day. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:59, June 6, 2013 (UTC)


 * There is usually an average of one June storm every 2 years from 1870 until now, but there were 15 June storms in the past 18 years since the active Atlantic cycle since 1995. It could be more typical to say one June storm per year in the modern Atlantic seasons. Ryan1000 02:08, June 7, 2013 (UTC)

Andrea's losing it. The storm's degenerating very fast. It is currently at 45 mph/996 mbar. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  10:28, June 7, 2013 (UTC)

Post-Tropical cyclone Andrea
AL, 01, 2013060718,, BEST, 0, 350N, 789W, 40, 996, EX, 34, NEQ, 0, 200, 0, 0, 1005, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ANDREA, M, Now extratropical.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  18:39, June 7, 2013 (UTC)


 * It'll still bring some wet weather to New England overnight tonight and tomorrow. Ryan1000 19:02, June 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Advisories would continue... Isaac829 E-Mail  21:01, June 7, 2013 (UTC)
 * Andrea is nearing New England. Winds are at 30 knots right now. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  11:15, June 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * NHC has issued their last advisory as Andrea moves away from New England. And where did you see that, Andrew? The last NHC advisory says 40 kt. --HurricaneMaker99 15:44, June 8, 2013 (UTC)
 * I think I misinterpreted the wind speed to be 30 knots. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:57, June 8, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: Southwest Caribbean
Broad low pressure north of Panama and a tropical wave to its northwest. A combination of these two factors would be a recipe for Barry. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  20:05, June 15, 2013 (UTC)

Now 10%. Isaac829 E-Mail  23:54, June 15, 2013 (UTC)


 * Hmm, that didn't take too long. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  02:03, June 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * I mention in Dr jeff Masters that this would probably have been mention tonight looks like I was right anyways this might have a shot at becoming Barry after crossing the Yucatan.Allanjeffs 04:19, June 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * Right. This could turn out to be another Bret. I do not like this one bit. This season could turn up to be another 2005. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  06:03, June 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * mjm it might be a repeat of Bret,Gert or Jose of 2005 and if this one develops into Barry we might have Chantal by the end of the month as the gfs is portraying a record for June.Allanjeffs 06:24, June 16, 2013 (UTC)

This AOI is up at 20%, but it should slam into Central America soon. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:26, June 16, 2013 (UTC)

30% and the model are showing it moving into the BOC.Might be Barry by Tuesday.Allanjeffs 18:05, June 16, 2013 (UTC)


 * I'm not so sure about this making it into the BoC. A deep layer monsoon trough is building up in the Eastern Pacific. I think this will end up like Arthur. - HurricaneSpin (Talk)  21:50, June 16, 2013 (UTC)
 * This might develop into Barry before we anticpate.Allanjeffs 22:55, June 16, 2013 (UTC)

93L.INVEST
Now invested. I think this could be like Bret in 2005, but not too sure. SHIPS doesn't get this higher than 27 knots. But storms in the BoC are kinda hard to forecast. Sometimes they explode and get much stronger than anticipated (a great example being Karl 2010), but at other times they might not do much at all. It has amongst the warmest waters in the entire North Atlantic. Ryan1000 03:34, June 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * I kind of doubt whether this storm could make it into the BoC. 93L should have a track similar to that of Arthur's. A deep layer ridge is strengthening over Texas and will steer 93L generally westwards. A good analogue to this would be Arthur. The two looked quite similarly on satellite at one point. Arthur never made it into the red tier as far as I can remember and was named after it was inland. If it does make its way to the BoC, I agree with you in the correlation with Bret. - HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:28, June 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * As 93L nears Central America, it is now up to 40%. I still do not believe this invest will significantly develop before landfall. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:33, June 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * Most of the models do take it into the southern Bay of Campeche, but then again, as SHIPS indicates, it might not be anything when it gets there. There is still the possibility this could be like Arthur and become Barry just off of northern Honduras before making landfall in Belize, though I'm still not ruling out a re-Bret. Either way, not much will come from this system, maybe some flooding but that's about it. Ryan1000 13:24, June 17, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Two
Surprise renumber! Approaching Belize now, expected to become Barry in the BOC. I think that it'll manage to get named when recon finds it later tonight. Morning satellite imagery found a strong LLC and decent organized convection. Yqt1001 (talk) 15:10, June 17, 2013 (UTC)

TD2 will probably become Barry in the BOC.Allanjeffs 16:27, June 17, 2013 (UTC)

That was fast! However, I still do not expect this depression to become Barry until it reaches the Bay of Campeche. It looks phenomenal on satellite imagery. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:00, June 17, 2013 (UTC)


 * Interesting season thus far. NHC might have to consider extending the boundary of the Atlantic to match the EPac or so. Every Atlantic year since 2005 had a storm form in June or earlier in the Atlantic (counting the unnamed TD in May 2009). Anyways, NHC doesn't expect this to be Barry until it hits the BoC, but it isn't impossible it could become one real quick before it hits Belize. This has been an impressive season so far. Ryan1000 18:08, June 17, 2013 (UTC)
 * And it looks like it won't become a re-Arthur, HurricaneSpin. Made landfall in Belize without becoming named. Now it's only chance at being Barry is in the BoC before making landfall in Mexico, like Bret '05. Ryan1000 01:41, June 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * Right, it probably will not get named. But I used Arthur as a analogue because I doubt that 92L will make it into the BoC at the time.Despite all the official forecasts pushing TD2 into the BoC earlier, several deep layer ridges are building up over central US. The steering winds also is due roughly west. I think we will have to wait for Barry another time. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  03:00, June 18, 2013 (UTC)
 * It still could be a TS when it reaches the southernmost BoC, but NHC no longer expects that and they barely take it into the BoC anyways. Some models even kill this thing over Mexico. I don't blame them on that. Ryan1000 11:50, June 18, 2013 (UTC)


 * It has reach the BOC probably organized a little more and become Barry.Allanjeffs 21:12, June 18, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical storm warnings. I wonder if recon will find Barry tomorrow morning. Yqt1001 (talk) 02:52, June 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * They're watches now, not warnings, but they could become warnings soon. But I still think this will be Barry by sometime tomorrow regardless (later today by UTC). Ryan1000 04:06, June 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Now they are warnings this is the last opportunity for td 2 to become Barry.Allanjeffs 11:12, June 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * The NHC now expects a weak tropical storm from the depression. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:15, June 19, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Barry
Finally made it in the special advisory.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  18:46, June 19, 2013 (UTC)

Yep,beat me by seconds anyways it looks like it was also a ts before landfall in the Caribbean this season looks like is going to be amazing to track.Allanjeffs 18:48, June 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * I was hoping this name would be reserved for a storm of respectable intensity, since storms named Barry tend to be weak (1983's Barry was the only one to reach hurricane strength), but oh well. --HurricaneMaker99 19:11, June 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * This one will probably reach a peak of 60mph before making landfall.Allanjeffs 19:19, June 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * It actually looks pretty impressive on sattelite imagery now; I can agree with Allan on it possibly hitting 50-60 mph winds before landfall. Pretty fast start to the season, like last year, second storm of the season in only the first 3 weeks. Bret in 2005 didn't come until just before June ended. Like last year, we're a little ahead of 2005 as of now, but I don't expect a super-active July, which is what gave 2005 the head start to record-earliest storm numbers with almost every storm, starting with Emily (Debby beat Dennis last year). Ryan1000 20:55, June 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * Actually Ryan all the models are forecasting a strong MJO for the EPAC and Atlantic we might get two or three storms for each basin.Allanjeffs 20:58, June 19, 2013 (UTC)
 * The GFS is a bit bullish with the MJO and they see it getting awfully strong for July in both the Atlantic and EPac, which could mean possibly record numbers of storms for both basins. The Euro, on the other hand, is a bit more conservative with the Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse and they see maybe 1 or 2 storms forming through the rest of June and July in Atl, more in the EPac. The Euro has correctly forcasted the strength of MJO pulses more than the GFS has, so I'm inclined to believe them more in this case, but with the way Atlantic's gone right now, it wouldn't surprise me if we get 19+ storms yet again this year, just like the last 3 years have done. I would want to see a break, but, not looking too likely. This year's naming list is a cursed one anyways. Ryan1000 21:19, June 19, 2013 (UTC)

Barry down to 1004mb for the 2am advisory. Should make landfall near Veracruz within a couple of hours now. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:52, June 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * Guess it peaked at 45 mph, nothing stronger. It's probrably going to bring some flooding to parts of Veracruz, but I really don't expect Barry to be much worse than Bret in 2005. Ryan1000 12:53, June 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Made landfall hours ago.-- Isaac829 E-Mail  17:09, June 20, 2013 (UTC)

Tropical Depression Barry
Collapsing rapidly. Should be dead by the next advisory. Ryan1000 20:49, June 20, 2013 (UTC)

Post-tropical cyclone Barry
Yep. Isaac829 E-Mail  02:52, June 21, 2013 (UTC)

Bye to this little fighter.Allanjeffs 03:45, June 21, 2013 (UTC)


 * It has a slight chance of regeneration when it moves into the EPac in a day or two, but otherwise, it's down and out. Ryan1000 08:18, June 21, 2013 (UTC)

AoI: North of Puerto Rico
Might be noted in the next TWO. Decent overall structure. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:12, June 19, 2013 (UTC)


 * The models aren't really in favor of this system due to shear and dry air ahead of it, like 92L earlier, but it could be noted in the TWO, but at near 0%. Ryan1000 23:21, June 19, 2013 (UTC)

AoI: Deep Atlantic Tropical Wave
Not forecasted to develop anytime soon, but this could develop into Chantal in the SW Caribbean. GFS foresees a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane making landfall somewhere on the coast of Louisiana on July 4. Does anyone else see an uncanny resemblance to a certain storm that I will not name? - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  20:30, June 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * July 4? Lol. That's two weeks in advance. I like the GFS model but I'm not really inclined to believe anything past, say 5 or 6 days from them. 14 days ahead is very far, way too far out for me to say anything about this. Ryan1000 20:49, June 20, 2013 (UTC)


 * July 4 is the day GFS sees it making landfall. The GFS is developing it between around June 25 to June 28. I'm quite worried of to-be Chantal because it uncannily resembles something taboo hurricane-wise. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  22:18, June 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * I am amazed if it develops into Chantal and becomes a minimal hurricane as all the previous storms have develop and have similar track to 2005.Allanjeffs 23:01, June 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Aye. You sense the uncanny resemblance I was hinting towards. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  23:40, June 20, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yes in tropical weather underground we were also discussing this.I can`t wait for Dorian though my favorite name of the list along with Nestor.Allanjeffs 00:31, June 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * I like Nestor too, considering it was one of my favorite typhoons. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  00:51, June 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Pretty far ahead for me to say anything about Chantal-to be, but we've gotten off to a rapid start this year, though not quite as fast as last year. It'd be amazing if we got to Dorian within the first week of July, by then we'd be catching up to last year and possibly even 2005. But I doubt this will become much if it does develop, in the WAY long run it may be a repeat of 2005's Cindy. Btw, if that happens, the A, B, and C storms this year would very closely resemble the A, B, and C storms of 2005. Andrea hit Florida as a moderately strong TS, like Arlene '05, Bret and Barry both hit Mexico as minimal TS's, and now this could possibly hit Louisiana as a hurricane in the long run like Cindy? Deja vu. Ryan1000 08:06, June 21, 2013 (UTC)
 * Aye. As many times as I say this, uncanny resemblance is uncanny. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:05, June 22, 2013 (UTC)
 * JULY 4? Independence Day? Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:36, June 25, 2013 (UTC)

It was quite organized for a while earlier today but has since moved inland Nicaragua. However, its low level circulation did not appear to be very healthy while loosing quite some rotational velocity. The conditions do appear favorable in the EPac for some further development. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  04:22, June 26, 2013 (UTC)

Yeah the CMC develops this into Dalila and Chantal from the wave that is crossing the lesser Antilles.Dorian might be our first cape verde too.Allanjeffs 05:40, June 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * The AOI that could become Dalila is now at 10% in EPac, and the wave crossing the lessers might become something in the long run, but I'm a little sckeptical of it now. The global models (GFS and Euro) don't see much coming from the wave, but some of the dynamic models are picking up on that wave. I think we could see Chantal from that when it hits the Western Caribbean. Ryan1000 21:22, June 26, 2013 (UTC)

AoI: Off Carolina Coast
Near 0%. Should make its NNE and make landfall off the Outer Banks tomorrow morning. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  06:05, June 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * Waste of time to even write it up on the TWO. Near 0% for 6 hours then it dies. Wow. Ryan1000 17:52, June 22, 2013 (UTC)


 * I guess the NHC are conservative inclusionists :P. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  08:15, June 26, 2013 (UTC)


 * These year they have been very conservative.Allanjeffs 11:10, June 26, 2013 (UTC)

AOI: North of Guyana
Near 0%. Potential Dolly in its road to come. Once it hits the SW Caribbean, things are about to go down. MJO will spike up in phase 1 and development will be likely due to the increase in upward motion. - <font color="#000000">HurricaneSpin <font color="#654321">(Talk)  19:31, June 28, 2013 (UTC)


 * Yep, I think this will become Chantal when it hits the Western Caribbean. Near 0% for the time being but conditions will likely improve down the road. Ryan1000 01:07, June 29, 2013 (UTC)
 * (Temporarily) gone from the NHC TWO. Ryan1000 18:50, June 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * I hope this becomes something later... Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:41, June 30, 2013 (UTC)
 * And it's back! 10% and currently over the Yucatan. Could become better organized as it moves into the BoC tomorrow. Ryan1000 07:09, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * It will move into the BOC and later it will move towards Texas I believe it will become Chantal even though it will be weak.Allanjeffs 12:33, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * Yeah, although it may develop, none of the models really make this stronger than a TS. But, activity is activity. We'll get more notable storms come the heart of the season. Ryan1000 17:36, July 3, 2013 (UTC)
 * It's a little better...20%...but any development will be very slow. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:13, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * Its invest 94L now.Allanjeffs 20:17, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

94L.INVEST
Per Allan's above comment. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:02, July 5, 2013 (UTC)


 * CHANTAL PARTY!! This will HOPEFULLY become the great and powerful Chantal, probably next week. Here is some news from Le National Hurricane Centre:

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOVE INLAND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY SUNDAY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. Yes, this is FRESH from le NHC bro. Invest 94 is STILL @ 20% and here is another sneek peek from the NHC

If I had to be honest, if this turns into Chantal, she would probably be a Cat 1/2 hurricane that WILL make some kinda landfall along Texas or Nawlins. C'mon Chantal. Let those blurred lines become more defined, and, oh well... #FormASAP. I am expecting Chantal next week. Who agrees? Rara Hooves 23:16, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Actually, Liz, as I stated above, 94L is in a region where conditions will cause very marginal, or slow, developement. Therefore, unless this invest pulls an Humberto or Lorenzo (2007), I doubt this system will become a hurricane. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  23:33, July 5, 2013 (UTC)

Will not amount to anything the wave in the Central Atlantic will probably be Chantal.Allanjeffs 11:55, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

The invest has fallen to 10%. I am no longer rooting on this invest. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  18:45, July 6, 2013 (UTC)

INVEST 95l
This will probably become Chantal in the next few days.Allanjeffs 11:58, July 6, 2013 (UTC)