Forum:2015 Pacific typhoon season

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Tropical Depression 14W
wait what? the JTWC is tracking a very tiny TD. will stay weak the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  12:31, August 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * In sharp contrast to Soudelor, 14W is struggling against some 20 knots of shear and dry air. With an exposed LLCC, the JTWC reports winds of 30 knots (35 mph) (1-min) gusting to 40 knots (45 mph). Also, the JMA reported a pressure of 1012 mbar (hPa; 29.88 inHg) earlier, but I am not sure if this has changed. As the STR steers 14W westward, a trough currently over Japan should close in and basically destroy the system, as the JTWC expects within 48 hours. Quite the weakling we have. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  21:57, August 2, 2015 (UTC)


 * 14W is almost completely devoid of convection, and based on KNES estimates, the JTWC has lowered the depression's winds to 25 knots (30 mph) (1-min) gusting to 35 knots (40 mph). However, the JMA reported a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg) earlier today, which is lower than my above post. Regardless, the aforementioned trough should continue shearing apart 14W like the JTWC forecasts, and prompt dissipation within the next day or two. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  00:26, August 4, 2015 (UTC)

Remnants of Tropical Depression 14W
Degenerated on August 5. Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:51, August 8, 2015 (UTC)

96W.INVEST
another invest. could develop into something subtropical in the next days or so.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  17:06, August 6, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Molave
named. has some unusual subtropical characteristics.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  23:27, August 7, 2015 (UTC)


 * Most of Molave's convection is displaced to the NW, as the JTWC notes. They report winds of 35 knots (40 mph) (1-min) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). Moreover, this is weaker than the JMA's estimate of 40 knots (45 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). As a matter of fact, the former just made Molave a TS. Due to a nearby TUTT cell to the storm's west, it is not forecast to significantly in the next 24 hours due to shear grasping at the system. However, as Molave transfers from STR influence to that of a trough located to its north, conditions may be favorable enough for some slight intensification, as both agencies predict peak winds of 55 knots (65 mph) (1- and 10-min) . Afterwards, baroclinic interaction should prompt Molave's weakening and extratropical transition. Whatever the case, Molave should not fail on the level of Haishen (the former already has a stronger intensity). Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:51, August 8, 2015 (UTC)


 * Banding is beginning to wrap into Molave's LLCC, but the nearby TUTT cell is still suppressing the storm's outflow and casting restrictive shear amounts. The JTWC report the same winds as from my last post, but the JMA have upped Molave's ten-minute winds to 45 knots (50 mph). As the storm tracks around the STR, the TUTT cell should cause little strengthening, but in another day or so, this influence should weaken, and the system may have a better chance at getting stronger. The JTWC has lowered their peak wind forecast to 50 knots (60 mph) (1-min) gusting to 65 knots (75 mph), but the JMA has raised its peak forecast to 60 knots (70 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 975 mbar (hPa). Afterwards, interaction with the westerlies will prompt Molave to weaken and become extratropical, all while not harming land. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  13:13, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * Molave has transitioned to a subtropical depression according to the JTWC and issued the last advisory dumb JTWC. while the JMA keeps it as a TS. despite the subtropical characteristics.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:02, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was, however, a fail of a TC. It didn't really do much, except for a little bit of impacts, if any, in isolated islands. This and Haishen were epic fails, since they didn't get passed TS strength and failed to cause significant land impacts. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:20, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * I believe this image justifies the JTWC's decision. In my opinion, Molave never really had the most ideal conditions to become anything decent. However, the storm remains active, as the JMA is the agency with official jurisdiction over it. Nevertheless, if any impacts are caused, they should be minimal. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  22:47, August 9, 2015 (UTC)


 * its again being tracked by the JTWC... and it could transition into subtropical again...  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:33, August 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Unfortunately, Molave was not as strong as the JMA called for. It is dying once more, as all convection is sheared from its LLCC and it is basically a "bonafide" cold-core low, as the JTWC describes. Their final advisory pegs its winds at 35 knots (40 mph) (1-min) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph), while the JMA reports an intensity of 40 knots (45 mph) (10-min) /990 mbar (hPa; 29.23 inHg). I don't think Molave will become subtropical, but the JMA is predicting intensification to 50 knots (60 mph) (10-min) /980 mbar (hPa) as the storm starts to speed across the Pacific. Bye, Molave! Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:49, August 13, 2015 (UTC)

97W.INVEST
this could become another super typhoon. and it headed like Soudelor. (to taiwan)  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:33, August 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Both invests now have TCFAs by the JTWC, but I am not sure which report matches with which system. If 97W is the invest SE of Guam, the JTWC alert notes banding wrapping into its LLCC, and is in an environment of low shear and good diffluence. Winds are estimated to be 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-min) by the agency, with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). This seems to be another potential strong typhoon, but I am not sure. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  19:59, August 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Is a TD IMO. YE Pacific Hurricane  02:32, August 14, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 16W
nearly a day late but. this can be again an Soudelor deja-vu for Taiwan.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:19, August 14, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Goni
this is going to be a C4 after passing Guam. right now it's developing the eyewall and it can skyrocket.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  00:51, August 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * As soon as I saw the first JTWC forecast, I knew Goni was going to RI when it had the chance. And almost everything seems to be in favor of that, as the JTWC notes moderate shear being offset by divergent flow and SST's above 29C. Moreover, they are noting convection starting to build into Goni's LLCC, and have upgraded its one-minute winds to 35 knots (40 mph) (1-min) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). However, the JMA is being a little more aggressive; perhaps because of this, they have already upgraded the storm's ten-minute winds to 45 knots (50 mph), with a pressure of 994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg). Maybe the RI is already starting? Anyway, as the STR drags Goni WNW for the next several days, the JTWC expects RI to commence after it crosses the Marinara Islands, but given the latest JMA upgrade, I won't be surprised if it is already starting. In addition, in comparison to the JTWC's forecast peak of 120 knots (140 mph) (1-min) gusting to 145 knots (165 mph), I will be more optimistic and call for 150 knot (175 mph) (1-min) winds (BTW, the JMA forecast predicts 85 knots (100 mph) (10-min) /945 mbar (hPa) as a peak). Fortunately, as Goni closes in on Taiwan, it should weaken, as OHC values will be lower and upper-level winds will be less favorable. Nevertheless, this storm should not be written off by areas still recovering from Soudelor. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:42, August 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * This storm is definitely a big threat to China and Taiwan in the long run, and the latest JTWC forecast  actually keeps it a little more southernly in the latter part of their forecast, so it could actually miss southern Taiwan in the long run and head into mainland China as a cat 3. That would be bad news especially if, worst-case scenario, it hits HK in the long run at that intensity. For the time being though, Guam is gonna have a rainy Saturday night. Ryan1000 02:50, August 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * Goni is looking around 50 knots. As you can see, the storm has become better organized with shear decreasing and a CDO has formed. Curved band features have increased and have wrapped around ~80% of the center. Typhoon status could be achieved in 36 hours or sooner, and I think Cat 5 is still possible here. Goni has very strong poleward outflow, especially from the SSW. Even though if GFS modelling is correct, dry air could be an issue from the mid-levels, it's structure at least so far does not appear to be one that inherits dry air. YE Pacific Hurricane  06:58, August 15, 2015 (UTC)

Typhoon Goni (Ineng)
possibly a day late. but this is now a C1, RI is already starting to become visible.  the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:01, August 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Well, the JTWC had been forecasting Goni to become a typhoon after a wait of a day or two, and now, it has finally done so. A small pinhole eye has developed on satellite imagery and very tightly wrapped banding is wrapping into the typhoon's center, according to the JTWC. Moreover, they have upped Goni's one-minute winds to 115 knots gusting to 140 knots (160 mph). In addition, the JMA reports winds of 95 knots (110 mph) (10-min) with a pressure of 935 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg), making this incarnation of Goni its strongest by far. As the STR continues its influence, RI should progress for the next couple of days, with a trough briefly interrupting the process. The current JTWC peak predicted is 140 knots (160 mph) (1-min) gusting to 170 knots (195 mph). I mean, does this not look amazing and capable of becoming Category 5? Also, the JMA predicts a peak intensity of 100 knots (115 mph) (10-min) /920 mbar (hPa). Afterwards, the JTWC forecasts Goni to enter a complex steering environment, which includes factors such as a smaller STR over Japan, and foresee the typhoon turning closer to Taiwan. This would mark their second typhoon hit in just a couple of weeks. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:32, August 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * The late forecast steering environment really concerns me with Goni, especially it's forward speed by that time; it'll be stuck just south of Taiwan for several days if that pans out, which would cause significant flooding on the island, much worse than Soudelor did earlier. An ERC put it's intensity in check lately, but once that clears out, it'll go off again. Ryan1000 23:46, August 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * I'm getting pretty impressed with some storm's intensity this season, such as this one. But the thing we hope for now is if this doesn't become an oh-my-god storm for Taiwan, and becomes really destructive. The Taiwan residents should take some precautionary measures to protect themselves from this potential disaster. Parts of the Philippines are also inside the JMA forecast cone at the moment. Which means currently we're looking at a potential disaster in the long run, especially if the models stalling it near Taiwan for several days pans out. -- Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 03:28, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Update: The system is near the Philippines currently. Both the Philippines and Taiwan should take quite a beating from this over the next couple days. Let's pray they will make it out safely and without a lot of deaths and devastation. -- Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:57, August 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * Steve, no offense, but I think you are starting to get a little too dramatic with Goni. A near-equatorial ridge (NER) is actually starting to steer the typhoon north-northeast away from the Philippines, so there shouldn't be any extreme impacts there (although five fatalities have already been reported). Intensitywise, Goni (which, BTW, is pronounced ko-nee) fluctuated between Category 3 and 4 intensity for a few days, but is now weakening, partially as a result of land interaction with Luzon. Winds are down to 90 knots (105 mph) (1-min) gusting to 110 knots (125 mph) per the JTWC, while the JMA reports an intensity of 85 knots (100 mph) (10-min) /945 mbar (hPa; 27.91 inHg). As Goni tracks closer to Japan, it may have a slight window to reintensify due to lower shear and increasing poleward outflow per the JTWC, but land interaction and decreasing OHC values should prevent a last-minute RI. Nevertheless, Japan may need to prepare, as the typhoon is forecasted to hit Kyushu as a borderline Category 1-2 in about three days (Taiwan should come out okay). Afterwards, baroclinic interaction will likely be the death sentence for this persistent beast a couple more days out. Looking back at Saipan, despite passing over the island as a modest tropical storm, 25 percent of its citizens are requesting assistance due to Goni, and as a whole, is still susceptible to the post-Soudelor effects. Also, Goni was named Ineng a few days ago by PAGASA; no one updated the header accordingly. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:00, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * Well, that's good for the northern Philippines. Though I wouldn't be surprised if they felt a lot of impacts as Goni skirted close. Now, Japan should prepare for some potential impacts from this thing, particularly the islands between mainland Japan and Taiwan. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:07, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * Goni just struck Japan as a Category 3 typhoon (JTWC). Unless I'm mistaken, that's their strongest hit since Ma-on in 2004. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 01:14, August 25, 2015 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Goni
after nearly 10 days as a typhoon. the JTWC has issued the final warning on Goni.--<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:28, August 25, 2015 (UTC)


 * It's extratropical now. Ryan1000 03:15, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Goni
Yes, it's dead. I gave it a 30% shot at retirement due to potential impacts it might have caused throughout Japan, Taiwan, northern Philippines, etc. This percentage could go up or down depending on later damage/death tolls. Bye Goni!! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:38, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

98W.INVEST
to the east of 97W. again to become a typhoon. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:33, August 12, 2015 (UTC)


 * Both this and 97W above could cause problems for eastern Asia next week, and because they're close, their intensity and track forecasts are gonna be somewhat hard to predict, since they could undergo a fujiwara interaction as they head WNW. Ryan1000 16:42, August 13, 2015 (UTC)


 * Both invests also now have TCFAs from the JTWC. I don't know if 98W is the system described to be SSW of Wake Island in the report. However, it similarly has banding in its northern and southern quadrants wrapping into the LLCC, and is likewise in an environment of low shear and good outflow. Winds are reported to be 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) as well per the JTWC, with a pressure of 1006 mbar (hPa; 29.71 inHg). I also have no idea what to expect from this invest. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  20:04, August 13, 2015 (UTC)
 * Likely a TD at this point. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  02:32, August 14, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Depression 17W
this TD is going to be an powerful fish typhoon. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  15:20, August 14, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Atsani
this and Goni can explode. possible C5 down the road here <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  00:55, August 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * I am just as excited to see Atsani RI as Goni, if not more, because the former is going to veer clear of land. The JTWC has been saying similar things about both systems - improved convection rapidly wrapping into a LLCC, with a TUTT cell fueling the former. As a matter of fact, Atsani's organization rate has prompted the JTWC to go above Dvorak estimates and report its one-minute winds to be 35 knots (40 mph) as well, with similar gusts of 45 knots (50 mph). Meanwhile, the JMA also reports an intensity of 35 knots (40 mph) (10-min), with a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg). Due to Atsani being trapped between a STR and an equatorial ridge, it should move only slowly for the next couple of days, if not become stationary. As the STR begins to accelerate Atsani afterwards, warm SSTs and a high OHC both should contribute to RI, which could start as soon as tomorrow, and the JTWC predicts a peak intensity of 130 knots (150 mph) (1-minute) gusting to 160 knots (185 mph). Just like Goni, I am going to be more aggressive than the JTWC and root for a 160 knot (185 mph) (1-min) Atsani. However, the JMA are not as excited as they are for Goni, and only predict winds of 75 knots (85 mph) (10-min) /955 mbar (hPa). Although Atsani probably will cause less damage than Goni, Japan may be in trouble if the former fails to completely recurve out to sea. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  02:08, August 15, 2015 (UTC)
 * Atsani is gradually becoming better organized. While I'm not of a fan of it's structure, deep convection is increased along the center. Like Goni, upper-level outflow looks well established. Assuming this can avoid dry air, which the GFS doesn't have it being too much of an issue, and stay somewhat compact, this should become a super typhoon. YE <font color="#66666">Pacific <font color="#66666">Hurricane  06:56, August 15, 2015 (UTC)

Typhoon Atsani
again late. Atsani finally became a typhoon. it seems that is going through upwelling. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  03:06, August 17, 2015 (UTC)


 * Since Atsani has been in a competing steering environment and thus moving slowly, it does not surprise me that the system has only intensified so quickly. Although Atsani is now moving a little faster and is in an environment of low shear, it has not intensified as rapidly as Goni, and the JTWC currently report winds of 85 knots (100 mph) (1-min), gusting to 105 knots (120 mph). Moreover, the JMA's intensity for Atsani is 70 knots (80 mph) (10-min) , with a pressure of 965 mbar (hPa; 28.50 inHg). Slated to move generally NW for the next several days, the JTWC is predicting the typhoon's gradual intensification to 130 knots (150 mph) (1-min) gusting to 160 knots (185 mph) in a couple of days before higher shear and lower OHC amounts take over. However, the JMA is more aggressive with Atsani, and forecasts a peak intensity of 100 knots (115 mph) (10-min) /915 mbar (hPa), which would make it slightly stronger than Goni. On a side note, should both Atsani and Goni be super typhoons simultaneously like the JTWC expects, according to this, it will be the first occurence of such in the WPAC since in the infamous Ivan-Joan C5 duet of 1997. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:50, August 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * That cat 5 duet in 1997 was actualy only one of two in worldwide history, the only other instance when two storms reached cat 5 at the same time in the same basin was Ron and Susan of the 1997-98 SPac Cyclone Season. Though I don't think Goni will get as strong as Atsani, they could both be formidable storms nonetheless. Atsani is looking very well-organized, and has cat 5 in it's sights in just a few days. Fortunately, it's heading out to sea, but it could cause problems for a few islands in the Pacific on the way. Ryan1000 23:46, August 17, 2015 (UTC)
 * A Cat. 5 duet would just be awesome. :O The WPac is really raging with both of these systems, and I can't believe we could get a duet of the most powerful SSHS rating.  As of now, Atsani is not heading for any major landmasses (thank god), but it could still be a potential threat for some islands out there. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 03:32, August 18, 2015 (UTC)

Category 5 now! 140 kt (1-min) per JTWC. Also at 100 kt (10-min)/925 mbar per JMA. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 14:14, August 19, 2015 (UTC)
 * It's just getting so powerful! Luckily it's not that much of a land threat =) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 19:58, August 20, 2015 (UTC)


 * Now, in regards to Atsani, it has been continuously on the decline since it attained Category 5 intensity. Speaking of which, 2015 has now produced eight storms worldwide of that intensity - Bansi, Eunice, Pam, Maysak, Noul, Dolphin, Soudelor, and now Atsani. At this rate, I won't be surprised if 1997's record of 12 Category 5's falls this year. Anyway, with dry air penetrating Atsani, the JTWC has lowered its winds to 90 knots (105 mph) (1-min) as well, gusting to 110 knots (125 mph). Also, the JMA reports an intensity of 80 knots (90 mph) (10-min) /950 mbar (hPa; 28.05 inHg). Looking ahead, as the typhoon nears the edge of the STR, it should start to turn more NE away from Japan, but impacts could happen there if this doesn't happen quick enough. Although favorable SST's may let Atsani hold on for a few more days, once this life support is taken off, baroclinic interaction should prompt swift extratropical transition hereafter. It was awesome to see such a strong typhoon cause so little impact to land! Also, as a heads up, Atsani and Goni were both Category 4-equivalent systems yesterday, which may be the first such duet since Amara and Bruce all the way back around Christmas 2013 in the SWIO. Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  01:16, August 22, 2015 (UTC)
 * I know, this was a really awesome and fantabulous system, for strengthening so much to powerful intensities and not affecting much land! This is the type of storm that I always enjoy and dream of. Atsani, you're the best. :) --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 18:09, August 22, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Atsani (2nd time)
after 11 days of life. Atsani is no longer tropical. (altough the JMA is still tracking it).--<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  21:21, August 25, 2015 (UTC)

Post-Tropical Cyclone Atsani
Dead. Ryan1000 03:15, August 26, 2015 (UTC)


 * It was very cool to track though. It got very powerful and failed to affect land, the best type of storm ever! --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 17:32, August 26, 2015 (UTC)

AOI: East of Atsani
As Goni and Atsani are racking up power, a new AOI has developed to the latter's east. Convection seems to deepening in this system, and a recent RSCAT image shows a defined circulation, according to the JTWC. Although outflow isn't the best and shear is rather high right now, many models apparently are forecasting development a couple of days out. Nevertheless, the JTWC is only giving a low chance of development in the next 24 hours, perhaps because of the aforementioned conditions. In addition, the agency estimates winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph) (1-min) in the AOI, with a pressure of around 1010 mbar (hPa; 29.83 inHg). Does anyone know how strong the models are forecasting this system to be? Andrew Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  14:56, August 15, 2015 (UTC)


 * The GFS doesn't do much with this system, but the Euro sees it becoming something a ways after Atsani becomes a formidable storm out to sea. Ryan1000 02:45, August 16, 2015 (UTC)


 * The JTWC dropped this AOI off their outlook. Perhaps Atsani absorbed it? Andrew  Talk To Me  Contribs  Mail Me  12:53, August 17, 2015 (UTC)

03C.KILO
Because Kilo formed in the Central Pacific, any comments regarding the system should be posted here --<font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  16:22, September 1, 2015 (UTC)

JMA Depression
A bit late, but we have a new depression. The WPac is waking up. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  17:41, September 5, 2015 (UTC)

Tropical Storm Etau
the JTWC issued something on it. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  18:49, September 6, 2015 (UTC)


 * another threat to Japan along with Kilo. <font face="Arial"> the destructive Hurricane  Odile  •  of  •  2014  19:28, September 6, 2015 (UTC)
 * Yeah, it's a Japan threat, but it shouldn't be too bad for them since it is a weaker storm. The JMA takes it up to 60 knots, and a typhoon might not be out of the question. But I still think it'll peak as a STS. --<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820   Let's talk. •  See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 21:29, September 6, 2015 (UTC)

Severe Tropical Storm Etau
Again late. According to Wikipedia, Etau is a STS. <font face="Ubuntu">Puffle <font face="Ubuntu">2005 - 2015  <font face="Ubuntu">🌀KATRINA🌀  15:40, September 8, 2015 (UTC)

Retirements at a glance
Normally I'm one of the first to complain about starting this section so early in the season; however, we've already had five storms, at least one of which has a decent chance of retirement. So, without further ado...


 * JMA
 * Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at, but enough for retirement? Nah.
 * Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, but a fish is a fish is a fish.
 * Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing.
 * Maysak: 65% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5.
 * Haishen: Wait, what?


 * PAGASA
 * All names: 0% - So far, no storm has caused either 1 billion PHP in damage, or 300 fatalities. As much as I disagree with PAGASA's arbitrary retirement standards (Amang was a respectable storm for them, and even a minor storm like Betty deserves a bit better than 0%), there's nothing I can do to change them.

--Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 19:53, April 21, 2015 (UTC)

Eh...I'm bored. Been a while since I've been on, but until EPac and ATL start up in two weeks and a month, respectively, might as well post my calls thus far:

JMA names: PAGASA names: There you go. Ryan1000 20:44, May 4, 2015 (UTC)
 * Mekkhala - 5% - Damage and deaths were very minimal, even by their standards.
 * Higos - 0% - Strongest February typhoon in 45 years, but it was still well away from land.
 * Bavi - 1% - Was just an afternoon rainshower for parts of micronesia; damage, if any, was less than minimal.
 * Maysak - 70% - It fortunately wasn't as bad as it could've been for the Philippines, but parts of Micronesia were slammed by this typhoon, and it was regarded as the worst ever in some areas. It has a pretty good shot of retirement based on what happened there alone. On top of all this, Maysak was also the strongest storm to exist in the West Pacific before April, and the 3rd earliest WPac category 5, after Ophelia in January 1958 and Mitang in March 2002.
 * Haishenot say anything here (end pun).
 * Noul - 5% - Preliminary estimate, but overall damage seems to have been minor in the islands, just like Maysak.
 * Dolphin - 10% - Damage on Guam was much less than I initially feared it would be, so it'll probably be coming back again in ~6 years.
 * Kujira - 6% - Caused some damage and deaths in Vietnam, but it won't be enough to kick it out.
 * Chan-Hom - 70% - Impacts in the Shanghai area totaled 944 million USD in damage and 1 death. While that's not as bad as it could've been, it was still pretty bad, and it has a good shot at retirement.
 * Linfa - 36% - Damage was somewhat extensive for a storm of it's intensity (218 million), though the Hong Kong area has seen worse, and it's definitely not a certainty. But it gets some credit.
 * Nangka - 15% - Like I said before, this was more or less a Halong repeat for Japan. Nothing exceptional, it'll probably be back in ~6 years.
 * Soudelor - 80% - Taiwan got off rather easy from this, with only 20 million in damage, but Saipan got slammed by this thing and China sustained extensive damage as well, up to 2.4 billion dollars of it, and it killed several people. Has a decent shot at being retired.
 * Molave - 0% - Welcome to typhoon school...aaand you fail.
 * Goni - >20% - Initial reports don't seem to be too bad, but they might go up later.
 * Atsani - 0% - Powerful, but was a fishspinner nonetheless.
 * Nothing meets their retirement criteria (1 billion PHP damage/300 deaths) thus far.

For the first time since I joined this wiki I will post retirement predictions for the WPAC

Here we go!

JMA ​  PAGASA
 * Mekkhala: 10%- 3 deaths and $7 million, but that won't warrant retirement
 * Higos: 0%- it was a strong storm, but didn't affect land
 * Bavi: 1%- didn't do much
 * Maysak: 60%-While the Phillipines avoided the worst of this unusually early cat 5 super typhoon, Micronesia was hit extremely hard. As Dylan said, This was a stronger Sudal (which was retired), except Sudal caused no deaths. 5 people were killed in this typhoon, so it has a good shot at retirement
 * Haishen: 0%- moving on to the next storm!
 * Noul: 10% The Phillipines avoided major devestation here! It was a cat 5 as it passed by the islands. Miraculously, damage has been minor so far! It did cause 2 deaths though :(
 * Dolphin: currently active

Nothing devestating enough to be retired so far. ​  leeboy100 My Talk! 21:38, May 17, 2015 (UTC)

​

JMA
 * Mekkhala: 10% - Nothing to shake a stick at. Seriously.
 * Higos: 0% - It was incredible to watch such a strong typhoon materialize in early February, buuuuut, no landfall. See y'all in 6 freaking years! :3
 * Bavi: <1% - It did slightly more than nothing..so no. see you in 2021!
 * Maysak: 45% - The Philippines may have gotten off easy, but Micronesia was hit very hard by this storm. From Wikipedia: "Pacific Maritime Association administrator Melinda Espinosa said 'Most concrete structures withstood the fury but everything else was damaged.'" That does not sound good. Maysak was essentially a stronger Sudal; remember, Sudal was retired for the havoc it wreaked in Micronesia. Sudal didn't even claim any lives; Maysak killed 5.
 * Haisheno comment...meh
 * Noul: 54% - Although Noul sort of helped Taiwan get water after a severe drought, Noul, known as Typhoon Dodong within the country, entered the Philippine area of Responsibility on May 7 and The Philippines raised signal 4, the highest warning level. From Wikipedia: "After Noul made a direct hit on northeastern Luzon at Santa Ana, Cagayan, at least two indirect deaths were attributed to Noul after they were electrocuted while preparing their houses in advance of the typhoon." That does not sound good. Noul was a slightly weaker Megi; remember, Megi was retired because the Hong Kong Observatory analysed that Megi was the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific Ocean since Tip in 1979 by attaining the 10-minute maximum sustained winds at 270 km/h (145 knots, 165 mph). However Megi claimed 69 lives; Noul killed only 2 (as I said earlier). I loved tracking Noul.


 * Dolphin: 30.5% - Strong typhoon, along with minor flooding in Guam, but it did pretty much nuttin.
 * Kujira: 0% - wtf, a fish = a fish. End of the line. But it did make landfall. YES BUT IT WAS ONLY LIKE A TORENTAL DOWNPOUR. OK? SHADDUP.
 * Chan-hom: 87.3% - This one has a shot at retirement; $1.46 billion in damage, 6 fatalities, Japan avoided major devastation here! Sadly, China was hit very hard by this storm. Due to the typhoon, more than 1 million people were evacuated in Zhejiang and nearly 30,000 ships were called back to port. 600 flights were reportedly canceled within the area.
 * Nankga: 5% - My iPod has new, black glass and it's way stronger than this. Would be surprised if it becomes a C5. UPDATE: Category 4? Wow. The WPac just made me eat my words.
 * Halola: 7% - I don't know if Halola's going on the road to retirement or not. Several flights cancelled and 1.2 million in damages...Funny because my surface cost me 1.2 grand.
 * Souledor: ??% - We'll have to see, nothing yet, but when I spring out of my break from wikia-WTF?! (english accent) Souledor literally THREW Maysak in the trash! (end accent)

--Puffle Let's party HARD!  17:56, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * Any particular reason why you copied my rationales up to Haishen? :/ --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 20:19, July 1, 2015 (UTC)
 * I was very lazy, that is all. :P --Puffle Let's party HARD!  21:04, July 2, 2015 (UTC)

odiles fun predictions! feat. Obama

here are mine. will update with new storms.

※ 5% - Mekkhala: even Mekkhala was weak. it caused some flooding.

※ 0% - Higos: meh...

※ -1% - Bavi: wait what?

※ 75% - Maysak: Micronesia got hit reaallly badly. Sudal part 2

※ NaN% - Haishen: no comment. (end water puns)

※ 20% - Noul: Noul literally evaporated as it missed the phillipines as a C5.

※ 15% - Dolphin: altough was a record early storm. some minor flooding in Guam

※ 25% - Kujira: some flooding

※ 100% - Chan-hom: 1 BILLION in damages! thats enough for instant retirement

※ 25% - Linfa: but caused the ferry MV Nirvana to capsize. damages are are not worse than expected

※ 15% - Nangka: blah...

※ 85% - Soudelor: do i need to explain this?

※ NaN% - Molave: u get a Z∞- in failing.

※ ???% - Goni: active

※ NaN*% - Atsani: AWESHUM! OOO YEEAAAA!

'*preliminary

<font face="Comic Sans MS"> totally destructive  | get hyper! 04:09, June 25, 2015 (UTC)
 * Actually, storms can easily get away with $1 billion+ in damage without getting retired. In 2004, Typhoon Songda caused $9 billion in damage to Japan, and yet it wasn't retired. Granted, that is a rather extreme case, but still. --Dylan (HurricaneMaker99) 23:32, July 29, 2015 (UTC)

Now I should do this, even though I'm not really interested in this basin:

(Retirement colors:  0%, <font color="#AAC">1% , <font color="#77B">2.5% , <font color="#359">5% , <font color="#22B">7.5% , 10% , 15% , 20% , <font color="#4A0">25% , 30% , <font color="#CF0">35% , 40% , <font color="#FD0">45% , 50% , <font color="#F80">55% , 60% , 65% , <font color="#B00">70% , 75% , <font color="#A05">80% , <font color="#F09">85% , <font color="#F0F">90% , <font color="#B0D">95% , <font color="#70A">99%  (When retirement is basically certain to happen, but not absolutely 100% sure to be certain. Highest rating in non-PAGASA basins.),  100%  (Only used in basins with retirement requirements, like PAGASA.))

JMA:
 * Mekkhala: <font color="#359">5% - The Philippines got away from this. Sorry Mekkhala, but you're most likely staying.
 * Higos: 0% - Really powerful, awesome, fantabulous February system! But all it did was spin fish, shrimp, seaweed, sharks, plankton, etc. out in the open Pacific.
 * Bavi: <font color="#AAC">1% - Nothing really interesting about this one. Saiyan, Tinian, and more Mariana Islands got some impacts, though.
 * Maysak: 60% - Chuuk sustained extreme damage, with as much as 90% structures sustaining damage. Most of Micronesia was just slammed by this thing. I wouldn't be surprised if it is retired.
 * Haishen: 0% - EPIC FAIL. See you next time!
 * Noul: <font color="#4A0">25% - Somewhat damaging, and it was extremely powerful, but damages should not be enough to warrant retirement.
 * Dolphin: <font color="#359">5% - It was really damaging for Guam, but it was mostly just a fish and dolphin-spinner. It probably spun the dolphins so much that they got killed. Please, think of the dolphins!
 * Kujira: <font color="#77B">2.5% - This TS caused extensive flooding in Hainan and Vietnam, and enhanced the monsoon, but a retirement is unlikely.
 * Chan-hom: 75% - Quite a lot of damage was caused in parts of China and also some in Okinawa. This could have a really high shot at retirement.
 * Linfa: <font color="#CF0">35% - Pretty extensive damage throughout Philippines, Taiwan, and Hong Kong region. This might have an outside shot at retirement, but I doubt it.
 * Nangka: 10% - Not super devastating, but did do a little bit of damage. Retirement is not likely at this point, so it's likely coming back next time. It was also pretty powerful, but not to the extreme extent like Soudelor.
 * Halola: <font color="#359">5% - Nothing really interesting here. Slight shot at best.
 * Soudelor: <font color="#F09">85% - Well, well, well, look what we have here. A really horrible storm for Saiyan, China, and Taiwan. It was also the most powerful 2015 storm, challenging even Haiyan and Tip at one point. A retirement looks to be very likely currently.
 * Molave: 0% - Another epic fail! See you next time, buddy!
 * Goni: 30% - The system impacted many countries, and this retirement percentage is just an estimate for now. It could go up and down, depending on how destructive it was for the countries it affected. I don't think it was destructive enough for a high chance of retirement, though.
 * Atsani: 0% - Failed to affect land, but was an awesomely powerful fishspinner.
 * Etau: ? - Predictions will be released once the storm has dissipated.

PAGASA: Nothing meets their retirement criteria, yet.

--<font face="Tahoma"> Steve820  Let's talk. • See My Edits  •  ✉ (Email me) 23:59, August 9, 2015 (UTC)